The Matter Bispectrum in N-body Simulations with non-Gaussian Initial Conditions

OpenAIRE

Sefusatti, Emiliano; Crocce, Martin; Desjacques, Vincent

2010-01-01

We present measurements of the dark matter bispectrum in N-body simulations with non-Gaussian initial conditions of the local kind for a large variety of triangular configurations and compare them with predictions from Eulerian perturbation theory up to one-loop corrections. We find that the effects of primordial non-Gaussianity at large scales, when compared to perturbation theory, are well described by the initial component of the matter bispectrum, linearly extrapolated at the redshift of ...

Mixing-model Sensitivity to Initial Conditions in Hydrodynamic Predictions

Science.gov (United States)

Bigelow, Josiah; Silva, Humberto; Truman, C. Randall; Vorobieff, Peter

2017-11-01

Amagat and Dalton mixing-models were studied to compare their thermodynamic prediction of shock states. Numerical simulations with the Sandia National Laboratories shock hydrodynamic code CTH modeled University of New Mexico (UNM) shock tube laboratory experiments shocking a 1:1 molar mixture of helium (He) and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) . Five input parameters were varied for sensitivity analysis: driver section pressure, driver section density, test section pressure, test section density, and mixture ratio (mole fraction). We show via incremental Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) analysis that significant differences exist between Amagat and Dalton mixing-model predictions. The differences observed in predicted shock speeds, temperatures, and pressures grow more pronounced with higher shock speeds. Supported by NNSA Grant DE-0002913.

An alternative phase-space distribution to sample initial conditions for classical dynamics simulations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garcia-Vela, A.

2002-01-01

A new quantum-type phase-space distribution is proposed in order to sample initial conditions for classical trajectory simulations. The phase-space distribution is obtained as the modulus of a quantum phase-space state of the system, defined as the direct product of the coordinate and momentum representations of the quantum initial state. The distribution is tested by sampling initial conditions which reproduce the initial state of the Ar-HCl cluster prepared by ultraviolet excitation, and by simulating the photodissociation dynamics by classical trajectories. The results are compared with those of a wave packet calculation, and with a classical simulation using an initial phase-space distribution recently suggested. A better agreement is found between the classical and the quantum predictions with the present phase-space distribution, as compared with the previous one. This improvement is attributed to the fact that the phase-space distribution propagated classically in this work resembles more closely the shape of the wave packet propagated quantum mechanically

Exploring Proposals for Resolving the Initial Conditions and Multiverse Problems in Inflation

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Panithanpaisal, Nondh; Steinhardt, Paul

2018-01-01

The theory of cosmic inflation with the plateau-like potentials for the scalar field is very successful in predicting standard cosmological parameters. However, if the quantum effects are included, the theory inherently contains serious problems, namely, the multiverse problem and the initial conditions problem. It has been suggested in Mukhanov 2015 and Deen et al. 2016 to add a potential wall to the potential, so that the field never reaches the self-reproduction point. We examine these two proposals by varying the positions of the potential wall as well as varying the initial ratios of kinetic energy, potential energy and curvature. We demonstrate that both proposals are fine-tuned, at best, as they suffer from the drift in the predictions of the spectral tilt (ns) and the tensor-to-scalar ratio (r).

Multi-model assessment of the impact of soil moisture initialization on mid-latitude summer predictability

Science.gov (United States)

Ardilouze, Constantin; Batté, L.; Bunzel, F.; Decremer, D.; Déqué, M.; Doblas-Reyes, F. J.; Douville, H.; Fereday, D.; Guemas, V.; MacLachlan, C.; Müller, W.; Prodhomme, C.

2017-12-01

Land surface initial conditions have been recognized as a potential source of predictability in sub-seasonal to seasonal forecast systems, at least for near-surface air temperature prediction over the mid-latitude continents. Yet, few studies have systematically explored such an influence over a sufficient hindcast period and in a multi-model framework to produce a robust quantitative assessment. Here, a dedicated set of twin experiments has been carried out with boreal summer retrospective forecasts over the 1992-2010 period performed by five different global coupled ocean-atmosphere models. The impact of a realistic versus climatological soil moisture initialization is assessed in two regions with high potential previously identified as hotspots of land-atmosphere coupling, namely the North American Great Plains and South-Eastern Europe. Over the latter region, temperature predictions show a significant improvement, especially over the Balkans. Forecast systems better simulate the warmest summers if they follow pronounced dry initial anomalies. It is hypothesized that models manage to capture a positive feedback between high temperature and low soil moisture content prone to dominate over other processes during the warmest summers in this region. Over the Great Plains, however, improving the soil moisture initialization does not lead to any robust gain of forecast quality for near-surface temperature. It is suggested that models biases prevent the forecast systems from making the most of the improved initial conditions.

Initial conditions and entanglement sudden death

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Qian, Xiao-Feng; Eberly, J.H.

2012-01-01

We report results bearing on the behavior of non-local decoherence and its potential for being managed or even controlled. The decoherence process known as entanglement sudden death (ESD) can drive prepared entanglement to zero at the same time that local coherences and fidelity remain non-zero. For a generic ESD-susceptible Bell superposition state, we provide rules restricting the occurrence and timing of ESD, amounting to management tools over a continuous variation of initial conditions. These depend on only three parameters: initial purity, entanglement and excitation. Knowledge or control of initial phases is not needed. -- Highlights: ► We study the possibility of managing disentanglement through initial conditions. ► The initial parameters are the amount of entanglement, excitation, and purity. ► Entanglement sudden death (ESD) free and ESD susceptible phases are identified. ► ESD onset time is also presented in the ESD susceptible phase. ► Our results may guide experiments to prepare ESD free or delayed ESD states.

Using a hybrid model to predict solute transfer from initially saturated soil into surface runoff with controlled drainage water.

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Tong, Juxiu; Hu, Bill X; Yang, Jinzhong; Zhu, Yan

2016-06-01

The mixing layer theory is not suitable for predicting solute transfer from initially saturated soil to surface runoff water under controlled drainage conditions. By coupling the mixing layer theory model with the numerical model Hydrus-1D, a hybrid solute transfer model has been proposed to predict soil solute transfer from an initially saturated soil into surface water, under controlled drainage water conditions. The model can also consider the increasing ponding water conditions on soil surface before surface runoff. The data of solute concentration in surface runoff and drainage water from a sand experiment is used as the reference experiment. The parameters for the water flow and solute transfer model and mixing layer depth under controlled drainage water condition are identified. Based on these identified parameters, the model is applied to another initially saturated sand experiment with constant and time-increasing mixing layer depth after surface runoff, under the controlled drainage water condition with lower drainage height at the bottom. The simulation results agree well with the observed data. Study results suggest that the hybrid model can accurately simulate the solute transfer from initially saturated soil into surface runoff under controlled drainage water condition. And it has been found that the prediction with increasing mixing layer depth is better than that with the constant one in the experiment with lower drainage condition. Since lower drainage condition and deeper ponded water depth result in later runoff start time, more solute sources in the mixing layer are needed for the surface water, and larger change rate results in the increasing mixing layer depth.

The Dependence of Chimera States on Initial Conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Feng Yue-E; Li Hai-Hong

2015-01-01

A chimera state consisting of both coherent and incoherent groups is a fascinating spatial pattern in non-locally coupled identical oscillators. It is thought that random initial conditions hardly evolve to chimera states. In this work, we study the dependence of chimera states on initial conditions. We show that random initial conditions may lead to chimera states and the chance of realizing chimera states becomes increasing when the model parameters are moving away from the boundary of their stable regime. (paper)

Tubular Initial Conditions and Ridge Formation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. S. Borysova

2013-01-01

Full Text Available The 2D azimuth and rapidity structure of the two-particle correlations in relativistic A+A collisions is altered significantly by the presence of sharp inhomogeneities in superdense matter formed in such processes. The causality constraints enforce one to associate the long-range longitudinal correlations observed in a narrow angular interval, the so-called (soft ridge, with peculiarities of the initial conditions of collision process. This study's objective is to analyze whether multiform initial tubular structures, undergoing the subsequent hydrodynamic evolution and gradual decoupling, can form the soft ridges. Motivated by the flux-tube scenarios, the initial energy density distribution contains the different numbers of high density tube-like boost-invariant inclusions that form a bumpy structure in the transverse plane. The influence of various structures of such initial conditions in the most central A+A events on the collective evolution of matter, resulting spectra, angular particle correlations and vn-coefficients is studied in the framework of the hydrokinetic model (HKM.

Multipoint propagators for non-Gaussian initial conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bernardeau, Francis; Sefusatti, Emiliano; Crocce, Martin

2010-01-01

We show here how renormalized perturbation theory calculations applied to the quasilinear growth of the large-scale structure can be carried on in presence of primordial non-Gaussian (PNG) initial conditions. It is explicitly demonstrated that the series reordering scheme proposed in Bernardeau, Crocce, and Scoccimarro [Phys. Rev. D 78, 103521 (2008)] is preserved for non-Gaussian initial conditions. This scheme applies to the power spectrum and higher-order spectra and is based on a reorganization of the contributing terms into the sum of products of multipoint propagators. In case of PNG, new contributing terms appear, the importance of which is discussed in the context of current PNG models. The properties of the building blocks of such resummation schemes, the multipoint propagators, are then investigated. It is first remarked that their expressions are left unchanged at one-loop order irrespective of statistical properties of the initial field. We furthermore show that the high-momentum limit of each of these propagators can be explicitly computed even for arbitrary initial conditions. They are found to be damped by an exponential cutoff whose expression is directly related to the moment generating function of the one-dimensional displacement field. This extends what had been established for multipoint propagators for Gaussian initial conditions. Numerical forms of the cutoff are shown for the so-called local model of PNG.

Cosmological constant and general isocurvature initial conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Trotta, R.; Riazuelo, A.; Durrer, R.

2003-01-01

We investigate in detail the question of whether a nonvanishing cosmological constant is required by the present-day cosmic microwave background and large scale structure data when general isocurvature initial conditions are taken into account. We also discuss the differences between the usual Bayesian and the frequentist approaches in data analysis. We show that the Cosmic Background Explorer (COBE)-normalized matter power spectrum is dominated by the adiabatic mode and therefore breaks the degeneracy between initial conditions which is present in the cosmic microwave background anisotropies. We find that in a flat universe the Bayesian analysis requires Ω Λ =e0 to more than 3σ, while in the frequentist approach Ω Λ =0 is still within 3σ for a value of h≤0.48. Both conclusions hold regardless of the initial conditions

Exact solution for four-order acousto-optic Bragg diffraction with arbitrary initial conditions.

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Pieper, Ron; Koslover, Deborah; Poon, Ting-Chung

2009-03-01

An exact solution to the four-order acousto-optic (AO) Bragg diffraction problem with arbitrary initial conditions compatible with exact Bragg angle incident light is developed. The solution, obtained by solving a 4th-order differential equation, is formalized into a transition matrix operator predicting diffracted light orders at the exit of the AO cell in terms of the same diffracted light orders at the entrance. It is shown that the transition matrix is unitary and that this unitary matrix condition is sufficient to guarantee energy conservation. A comparison of analytical solutions with numerical predictions validates the formalism. Although not directly related to the approach used to obtain the solution, it was discovered that all four generated eigenvalues from the four-order AO differential matrix operator are expressed simply in terms of Euclid's Divine Proportion.

Assessment of initial soil moisture conditions for event-based rainfall-runoff modelling

OpenAIRE

Tramblay, Yves; Bouvier, Christophe; Martin, C.; Didon-Lescot, J. F.; Todorovik, D.; Domergue, J. M.

2010-01-01

Flash floods are the most destructive natural hazards that occur in the Mediterranean region. Rainfall-runoff models can be very useful for flash flood forecasting and prediction. Event-based models are very popular for operational purposes, but there is a need to reduce the uncertainties related to the initial moisture conditions estimation prior to a flood event. This paper aims to compare several soil moisture indicators: local Time Domain Reflectometry (TDR) measurements of soil moisture,...

Initial conditions for cosmological perturbations

Science.gov (United States)

Ashtekar, Abhay; Gupt, Brajesh

2017-02-01

Penrose proposed that the big bang singularity should be constrained by requiring that the Weyl curvature vanishes there. The idea behind this past hypothesis is attractive because it constrains the initial conditions for the universe in geometric terms and is not confined to a specific early universe paradigm. However, the precise statement of Penrose’s hypothesis is tied to classical space-times and furthermore restricts only the gravitational degrees of freedom. These are encapsulated only in the tensor modes of the commonly used cosmological perturbation theory. Drawing inspiration from the underlying idea, we propose a quantum generalization of Penrose’s hypothesis using the Planck regime in place of the big bang, and simultaneously incorporating tensor as well as scalar modes. Initial conditions selected by this generalization constrain the universe to be as homogeneous and isotropic in the Planck regime as permitted by the Heisenberg uncertainty relations.

Initial conditions for cosmological perturbations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ashtekar, Abhay; Gupt, Brajesh

2017-01-01

Penrose proposed that the big bang singularity should be constrained by requiring that the Weyl curvature vanishes there. The idea behind this past hypothesis is attractive because it constrains the initial conditions for the universe in geometric terms and is not confined to a specific early universe paradigm. However, the precise statement of Penrose’s hypothesis is tied to classical space-times and furthermore restricts only the gravitational degrees of freedom. These are encapsulated only in the tensor modes of the commonly used cosmological perturbation theory. Drawing inspiration from the underlying idea, we propose a quantum generalization of Penrose’s hypothesis using the Planck regime in place of the big bang, and simultaneously incorporating tensor as well as scalar modes. Initial conditions selected by this generalization constrain the universe to be as homogeneous and isotropic in the Planck regime as permitted by the Heisenberg uncertainty relations . (paper)

Cosmological Simulations with Scale-Free Initial Conditions. I. Adiabatic Hydrodynamics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Owen, J.M.; Weinberg, D.H.; Evrard, A.E.; Hernquist, L.; Katz, N.

1998-01-01

We analyze hierarchical structure formation based on scale-free initial conditions in an Einstein endash de Sitter universe, including a baryonic component with Ω bary = 0.05. We present three independent, smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) simulations, performed at two resolutions (32 3 and 64 3 dark matter and baryonic particles) and with two different SPH codes (TreeSPH and P3MSPH). Each simulation is based on identical initial conditions, which consist of Gaussian-distributed initial density fluctuations that have a power spectrum P(k) ∝ k -1 . The baryonic material is modeled as an ideal gas subject only to shock heating and adiabatic heating and cooling; radiative cooling and photoionization heating are not included. The evolution is expected to be self-similar in time, and under certain restrictions we identify the expected scalings for many properties of the distribution of collapsed objects in all three realizations. The distributions of dark matter masses, baryon masses, and mass- and emission-weighted temperatures scale quite reliably. However, the density estimates in the central regions of these structures are determined by the degree of numerical resolution. As a result, mean gas densities and Bremsstrahlung luminosities obey the expected scalings only when calculated within a limited dynamic range in density contrast. The temperatures and luminosities of the groups show tight correlations with the baryon masses, which we find can be well represented by power laws. The Press-Schechter (PS) approximation predicts the distribution of group dark matter and baryon masses fairly well, though it tends to overestimate the baryon masses. Combining the PS mass distribution with the measured relations for T(M) and L(M) predicts the temperature and luminosity distributions fairly accurately, though there are some discrepancies at high temperatures/luminosities. In general the three simulations agree well for the properties of resolved groups, where a group

The Initial Conditions of Fractional Calculus

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Trigeassou, J. C.; Maamri, N.

2011-01-01

During the past fifty years , Fractional Calculus has become an original and renowned mathematical tool for the modelling of diffusion Partial Differential Equations and the design of robust control algorithms. However, in spite of these celebrated results, some theoretical problems have not yet received a satisfying solution. The mastery of initial conditions, either for Fractional Differential Equations (FDEs) or for the Caputo and Riemann-Liouville fractional derivatives, remains an open research domain. The solution of this fundamental problem, also related to the long range memory property, is certainly the necessary prerequisite for a satisfying approach to modelling and control applications. The fractional integrator and its continuously frequency distributed differential model is a valuable tool for the simulation of fractional systems and the solution of initial condition problems. Indeed, the infinite dimensional state vector of fractional integrators allows the direct generalization to fractional calculus of the theoretical results of integer order systems. After a reminder of definitions and properties related to fractional derivatives and systems, this presentation is intended to show, based on the results of two recent publications [1,2], how the fractional integrator provides the solution of the initial condition problem of FDEs and of Caputo and Riemann-Liouville fractional derivatives. Numerical simulation examples illustrate and validate these new theoretical concepts.

Initial phase wall conditioning in KSTAR

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hong, Suk-Ho; Kim, Kwang-Pyo; Kim, Sungwoo; Lee, Dong-Su; Kim, Kyung-Min; Lee, Kun-Su; Kim, Jong-Su; Park, Jae-Min; Kim, Woong-Chae; Kim, Hak-Kun; Park, Kap-Rai; Yang, Hyung-Lyeol; Sun, Jong-Ho; Woo, Hyun-Jong; Lee, Sang-Yong; Lee, Sang-Hwa; Park, Eun-Kyung; Park, Sang-Joon; Kim, Sun-Ho; Wang, Sun-Jung

2011-01-01

The initial phase wall conditioning in KSTAR is depicted. The KSTAR wall conditioning procedure consists of vessel baking, glow discharge cleaning (GDC), ICRH wall conditioning (ICWC) and boronization (Bz). Vessel baking is performed for the initial vacuum conditioning in order to remove various kinds of impurities including H 2 O, carbon and oxygen and for the plasma operation. The total outgassing rates after vessel baking in three successive KSTAR campaigns are compared. GDC is regularly performed as a standard wall cleaning procedure. Another cleaning technique is ICWC, which is useful for inter-shot wall conditioning under a strong magnetic field. In order to optimize the operation time and removal efficiency of ICWC, a parameter scan is performed. Bz is a standard technique to remove oxygen impurity from a vacuum vessel. KSTAR has used carborane powder which is a non-toxic boron-containing material. The KSTAR Bz has been successfully performed through two campaigns: water and oxygen levels in the vacuum vessel are reduced significantly. As a result, KSTAR has achieved its first L-H mode transition, although the input power was marginal for the L-H transition threshold. The characteristics of boron-containing thin films deposited for boronization are investigated.

Prediction of fretting fatigue behavior under elastic-plastic conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shin, Ki Su

2009-01-01

Fretting fatigue generally leads to the degradation of the fatigue strength of a material due to cyclic micro-slip between two contacting materials. Fretting fatigue is regarded as an important issue in designing aerospace structures. While many studies have evaluated fretting fatigue behavior under elastic deformation conditions, few have focused on fretting fatigue behavior under elastic-plastic deformation conditions, especially the crack orientation and fatigue life prediction for Ti-6Al-4V. The primary goal of this study was to characterize the fretting fatigue crack initiation behavior in the presence of plasticity. Experimental tests were performed using pad configurations involving elastic-plastic deformations. To calculate stress distributions under elastic-plastic fretting fatigue conditions, FEA was also performed. Several parametric approaches were used to predict fretting fatigue life along with stress distribution resulting from FEA. However, those parameters using surface stresses were unable to establish an equivalence between elastic fretting fatigue data and elastic-plastic fretting fatigue data. Based on this observation, the critical distance methods, which are commonly used in notch analysis, were applied to the fretting fatigue problem. In conclusion, the effective strain range method when used in conjunction with the SMSSR parameter showed a good correlation of data points between the pad configurations involving elastic and elastic plastic deformations

ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION OF HOT JUPITERS: INSENSITIVITY TO INITIAL CONDITIONS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu Beibei; Showman, Adam P.

2013-01-01

The ongoing characterization of hot Jupiters has motivated a variety of circulation models of their atmospheres. Such models must be integrated starting from an assumed initial state, which is typically taken to be a wind-free, rest state. Here, we investigate the sensitivity of hot-Jupiter atmospheric circulation to initial conditions with shallow-water models and full three-dimensional models. Those models are initialized with zonal jets, and we explore a variety of different initial jet profiles. We demonstrate that, in both classes of models, the final, equilibrated state is independent of initial condition—as long as frictional drag near the bottom of the domain and/or interaction with a specified planetary interior are included so that the atmosphere can adjust angular momentum over time relative to the interior. When such mechanisms are included, otherwise identical models initialized with vastly different initial conditions all converge to the same statistical steady state. In some cases, the models exhibit modest time variability; this variability results in random fluctuations about the statistical steady state, but we emphasize that, even in these cases, the statistical steady state itself does not depend on initial conditions. Although the outcome of hot-Jupiter circulation models depend on details of the radiative forcing and frictional drag, aspects of which remain uncertain, we conclude that the specification of initial conditions is not a source of uncertainty, at least over the parameter range explored in most current models.

Unsaturated Zone Effects in Predicting Landslide and Debris-Flow Initiation

Science.gov (United States)

Baum, R. L.; Godt, J. W.; Savage, W. Z.

2006-12-01

Many destructive debris flows begin as shallow landslides induced by direct infiltration of intense rainfall and storm runoff into hillside materials. Predicting the timing and location of debris-flow initiation is needed to assess the debris-flow hazard of an area. Theoretical models and real-time monitoring of rainfall infiltration into unsaturated hillside materials provide useful insights into the mechanisms and timing of rainfall-induced landslides. We modeled the infiltration process using a two-layer system that consists of an unsaturated zone above a saturated zone, and then implemented this model in a GIS framework. The model couples analytical solutions for transient, unsaturated, vertical infiltration above the water table to pressure-diffusion solutions for pressure changes below the water table. The solutions are coupled through a transient water table that rises as water accumulates at the base of the unsaturated zone. This scheme, though limited to simplified soil- water characteristics and moist initial conditions, greatly improves computational efficiency over numerical models in spatially distributed modeling applications. Pore pressures computed by these coupled models are subsequently used in slope-stability computations to estimate the timing and locations of slope failures. Preliminary model results indicate that the unsaturated layer attenuates and delays the rainfall-induced pore- pressure response at depth, consistent with observations at an instrumented hillside near Edmonds, Washington. This attenuation reduces the area of false-positive predictions (when compared with results of linear models for suction-saturated initial conditions) in distributed application of the model over an area. Modeling indicates that initial wetness of the hillside materials affects the intensity and duration of rainfall required to trigger shallow landslides and consequently the timing of their occurrence, a result that is also consistent with observations of

Prediction of the remaining lifetime of stainless steels under conditions of stress corrosion cracking

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tandler, M.; Vehovar, L.; Dolecek, V.; Rotnik, U.

2003-01-01

The prediction of the lifetime of metal structures and equipment under conditions of stress corrosion is very complicated because of the complexity of this process of degradation. Recently a new method, based on the so-called corrosion elongation curves, has been found, which can be used to predict the time to failure under these conditions. By upgrading of these curves (and thus obtaining Upgraded Corrosion Elongation Curves - UCEC's) it has been possible to obtain a precise definition of the time needed for the initiation of the corrosion crack, and for its stable growth. It is upon this basis that diagrams for the prediction of remaining lifetime (DPRL's) have been developed. DPRL's can also be used to predict the values of various critical parameters which have to be achieved if a stress corrosion crack is to occur. (Abstract Copyright [2003], Wiley Periodicals, Inc.) [de

Selection of the initial conditions in the tunneling time definition

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zajchenko, A.K.

2004-01-01

The necessity of changing of the initial conditions in the Olkhovsky - Recami definition of the tunneling time is justified. The new initial conditions are proposed which adequately taking into account the irreversibility of the wave packets spreading. The expression for the tunneling time with the new initial conditions is reduced to the form which is convenient for the performing and controlling the accuracy of calculations

A new Method for the Estimation of Initial Condition Uncertainty Structures in Mesoscale Models

Science.gov (United States)

Keller, J. D.; Bach, L.; Hense, A.

2012-12-01

The estimation of fast growing error modes of a system is a key interest of ensemble data assimilation when assessing uncertainty in initial conditions. Over the last two decades three methods (and variations of these methods) have evolved for global numerical weather prediction models: ensemble Kalman filter, singular vectors and breeding of growing modes (or now ensemble transform). While the former incorporates a priori model error information and observation error estimates to determine ensemble initial conditions, the latter two techniques directly address the error structures associated with Lyapunov vectors. However, in global models these structures are mainly associated with transient global wave patterns. When assessing initial condition uncertainty in mesoscale limited area models, several problems regarding the aforementioned techniques arise: (a) additional sources of uncertainty on the smaller scales contribute to the error and (b) error structures from the global scale may quickly move through the model domain (depending on the size of the domain). To address the latter problem, perturbation structures from global models are often included in the mesoscale predictions as perturbed boundary conditions. However, the initial perturbations (when used) are often generated with a variant of an ensemble Kalman filter which does not necessarily focus on the large scale error patterns. In the framework of the European regional reanalysis project of the Hans-Ertel-Center for Weather Research we use a mesoscale model with an implemented nudging data assimilation scheme which does not support ensemble data assimilation at all. In preparation of an ensemble-based regional reanalysis and for the estimation of three-dimensional atmospheric covariance structures, we implemented a new method for the assessment of fast growing error modes for mesoscale limited area models. The so-called self-breeding is development based on the breeding of growing modes technique

Solutions to the Cosmic Initial Entropy Problem without Equilibrium Initial Conditions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vihan M. Patel

2017-08-01

Full Text Available The entropy of the observable universe is increasing. Thus, at earlier times the entropy was lower. However, the cosmic microwave background radiation reveals an apparently high entropy universe close to thermal and chemical equilibrium. A two-part solution to this cosmic initial entropy problem is proposed. Following Penrose, we argue that the evenly distributed matter of the early universe is equivalent to low gravitational entropy. There are two competing explanations for how this initial low gravitational entropy comes about. (1 Inflation and baryogenesis produce a virtually homogeneous distribution of matter with a low gravitational entropy. (2 Dissatisfied with explaining a low gravitational entropy as the product of a ‘special’ scalar field, some theorists argue (following Boltzmann for a “more natural” initial condition in which the entire universe is in an initial equilibrium state of maximum entropy. In this equilibrium model, our observable universe is an unusual low entropy fluctuation embedded in a high entropy universe. The anthropic principle and the fluctuation theorem suggest that this low entropy region should be as small as possible and have as large an entropy as possible, consistent with our existence. However, our low entropy universe is much larger than needed to produce observers, and we see no evidence for an embedding in a higher entropy background. The initial conditions of inflationary models are as natural as the equilibrium background favored by many theorists.

Predicting birth weight with conditionally linear transformation models.

Science.gov (United States)

Möst, Lisa; Schmid, Matthias; Faschingbauer, Florian; Hothorn, Torsten

2016-12-01

Low and high birth weight (BW) are important risk factors for neonatal morbidity and mortality. Gynecologists must therefore accurately predict BW before delivery. Most prediction formulas for BW are based on prenatal ultrasound measurements carried out within one week prior to birth. Although successfully used in clinical practice, these formulas focus on point predictions of BW but do not systematically quantify uncertainty of the predictions, i.e. they result in estimates of the conditional mean of BW but do not deliver prediction intervals. To overcome this problem, we introduce conditionally linear transformation models (CLTMs) to predict BW. Instead of focusing only on the conditional mean, CLTMs model the whole conditional distribution function of BW given prenatal ultrasound parameters. Consequently, the CLTM approach delivers both point predictions of BW and fetus-specific prediction intervals. Prediction intervals constitute an easy-to-interpret measure of prediction accuracy and allow identification of fetuses subject to high prediction uncertainty. Using a data set of 8712 deliveries at the Perinatal Centre at the University Clinic Erlangen (Germany), we analyzed variants of CLTMs and compared them to standard linear regression estimation techniques used in the past and to quantile regression approaches. The best-performing CLTM variant was competitive with quantile regression and linear regression approaches in terms of conditional coverage and average length of the prediction intervals. We propose that CLTMs be used because they are able to account for possible heteroscedasticity, kurtosis, and skewness of the distribution of BWs. © The Author(s) 2014.

Characterization of Initial Parameter Information for Lifetime Prediction of Electronic Devices.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Zhigang; Liu, Boying; Yuan, Mengxiong; Zhang, Feifei; Guo, Jiaqiang

2016-01-01

Newly manufactured electronic devices are subject to different levels of potential defects existing among the initial parameter information of the devices. In this study, a characterization of electromagnetic relays that were operated at their optimal performance with appropriate and steady parameter values was performed to estimate the levels of their potential defects and to develop a lifetime prediction model. First, the initial parameter information value and stability were quantified to measure the performance of the electronics. In particular, the values of the initial parameter information were estimated using the probability-weighted average method, whereas the stability of the parameter information was determined by using the difference between the extrema and end points of the fitting curves for the initial parameter information. Second, a lifetime prediction model for small-sized samples was proposed on the basis of both measures. Finally, a model for the relationship of the initial contact resistance and stability over the lifetime of the sampled electromagnetic relays was proposed and verified. A comparison of the actual and predicted lifetimes of the relays revealed a 15.4% relative error, indicating that the lifetime of electronic devices can be predicted based on their initial parameter information.

Characterization of Initial Parameter Information for Lifetime Prediction of Electronic Devices.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhigang Li

Full Text Available Newly manufactured electronic devices are subject to different levels of potential defects existing among the initial parameter information of the devices. In this study, a characterization of electromagnetic relays that were operated at their optimal performance with appropriate and steady parameter values was performed to estimate the levels of their potential defects and to develop a lifetime prediction model. First, the initial parameter information value and stability were quantified to measure the performance of the electronics. In particular, the values of the initial parameter information were estimated using the probability-weighted average method, whereas the stability of the parameter information was determined by using the difference between the extrema and end points of the fitting curves for the initial parameter information. Second, a lifetime prediction model for small-sized samples was proposed on the basis of both measures. Finally, a model for the relationship of the initial contact resistance and stability over the lifetime of the sampled electromagnetic relays was proposed and verified. A comparison of the actual and predicted lifetimes of the relays revealed a 15.4% relative error, indicating that the lifetime of electronic devices can be predicted based on their initial parameter information.

Initial conditions for turbulent mixing simulations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

T. Kaman

2010-01-01

Full Text Available In the context of the classical Rayleigh-Taylor hydrodynamical instability, we examine the much debated question of models for initial conditions and the possible influence of unrecorded long wave length contributions to the instability growth rate α.

Crack initiation under generalized plane strain conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shum, D.K.M.; Merkle, J.G.

1991-01-01

A method for estimating the decrease in crack-initiation toughness, from a reference plane strain value, due to positive straining along the crack front of a circumferential flaw in a reactor pressure vessel is presented in this study. This method relates crack initiation under generalized plane strain conditions with material failure at points within a distance of a few crack-tip-opening displacements ahead of a crack front, and involves the formulation of a micromechanical crack-initiation model. While this study is intended to address concerns regarding the effects of positive out-of- plane straining on ductile crack initiation, the approach adopted in this work can be extended in a straightforward fashion to examine conditions of macroscopic cleavage crack initiation. Provided single- parameter dominance of near-tip fields exists in the flawed structure, results from this study could be used to examine the appropriateness of applying plane strain fracture toughness to the evaluation of circumferential flaws, in particular to those in ring-forged vessels which have no longitudinal welds. In addition, results from this study could also be applied toward the analysis of the effects of thermal streaming on the fracture resistance of circumferentially oriented flaws in a pressure vessel. 37 refs., 8 figs., 1 tab

Improvement of a mesoscale atmospheric dynamic model PHYSIC. Utilization of output from synoptic numerical prediction model for initial and boundary condition

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nagai, Haruyasu; Yamazawa, Hiromi

1995-03-01

This report describes the improvement of the mesoscale atmospheric dynamic model which is a part of the atmospheric dispersion calculation model PHYSIC. To introduce large-scale meteorological changes into the mesoscale atmospheric dynamic model, it is necessary to make the initial and boundary conditions of the model by using GPV (Grid Point Value) which is the output of the numerical weather prediction model of JMA (Japan Meteorological Agency). Therefore, the program which preprocesses the GPV data to make a input file to PHYSIC was developed and the input process and the methods of spatial and temporal interpolation were improved to correspond to the file. Moreover, the methods of calculating the cloud amount and ground surface moisture from GPV data were developed and added to the model code. As the example of calculation by the improved model, the wind field simulations of a north-west monsoon in winter and a sea breeze in summer in the Tokai area were also presented. (author)

Predicting Comorbid Conditions and Trajectories using Social Health Records.

Science.gov (United States)

Ji, Xiang; Ae Chun, Soon; Geller, James

2016-05-05

Many patients suffer from comorbidity conditions, for example, obese patients often develop type-2 diabetes and hypertension. In the US, 80% of Medicare spending is for managing patients with these multiple coexisting conditions. Predicting potential comorbidity conditions for an individual patient can promote preventive care and reduce costs. Predicting possible comorbidity progression paths can provide important insights into population heath and aid with decisions in public health policies. Discovering the comorbidity relationships is complex and difficult, due to limited access to Electronic Health Records by privacy laws. In this paper, we present a collaborative comorbidity prediction method to predict likely comorbid conditions for individual patients, and a trajectory prediction graph model to reveal progression paths of comorbid conditions. Our prediction approaches utilize patient generated health reports on online social media, called Social Health Records (SHR). The experimental results based on one SHR source show that our method is able to predict future comorbid conditions for a patient with coverage values of 48% and 75% for a top-20 and a top-100 ranked list, respectively. For risk trajectory prediction, our approach is able to reveal each potential progression trajectory between any two conditions and infer the confidence of the future trajectory, given any observed condition. The predicted trajectories are validated with existing comorbidity relations from the medical literature.

Prediction of Machine Tool Condition Using Support Vector Machine

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang Peigong; Meng Qingfeng; Zhao Jian; Li Junjie; Wang Xiufeng

2011-01-01

Condition monitoring and predicting of CNC machine tools are investigated in this paper. Considering the CNC machine tools are often small numbers of samples, a condition predicting method for CNC machine tools based on support vector machines (SVMs) is proposed, then one-step and multi-step condition prediction models are constructed. The support vector machines prediction models are used to predict the trends of working condition of a certain type of CNC worm wheel and gear grinding machine by applying sequence data of vibration signal, which is collected during machine processing. And the relationship between different eigenvalue in CNC vibration signal and machining quality is discussed. The test result shows that the trend of vibration signal Peak-to-peak value in surface normal direction is most relevant to the trend of surface roughness value. In trends prediction of working condition, support vector machine has higher prediction accuracy both in the short term ('One-step') and long term (multi-step) prediction compared to autoregressive (AR) model and the RBF neural network. Experimental results show that it is feasible to apply support vector machine to CNC machine tool condition prediction.

Initial Conditions Corresponding to Optimal Ion Acceleration in the VINCY Cyclotron

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ilic, A. Z.; Ristic-Djurovic, J. L.; Cirkovic, S. T.

2007-01-01

The quality of a beam in a cyclotron depends a lot on the choice of initial conditions for acceleration. The criteria defining optimal acceleration as well as the choice of the corresponding initial conditions have been outlined. The results of beam dynamics simulations with optimal and non-optimal initial conditions are compared. (author)

Tailoring discrete quantum walk dynamics via extended initial conditions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Valcarcel, German J de; Roldan, Eugenio [Departament d' Optica, Universitat de Valencia, Dr Moliner 50, 46100-Burjassot, Spain, EU (Spain); Romanelli, Alejandro, E-mail: german.valcarcel@uv.es, E-mail: eugenio.roldan@uv.es, E-mail: alejo@fing.edu.uy [Instituto de Fisica, Facultad de IngenierIa, Universidad de la Republica, CC 30, CP 11000, Montevideo (Uruguay)

2010-12-15

We study the evolution of initially extended distributions in the coined quantum walk (QW) on the line. By analysing the dispersion relation of the process, continuous wave equations are derived whose form depends on the initial distribution shape. In particular, for a class of initial conditions, the evolution is dictated by the Schroedinger equation of a free particle. As that equation also governs paraxial optical diffraction, all of the phenomenology of the latter can be implemented in the QW. This allows us, in particular, to devise an initially extended condition leading to a uniform probability distribution whose width increases linearly with time, with increasing homogeneity.

Tailoring discrete quantum walk dynamics via extended initial conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Valcarcel, German J de; Roldan, Eugenio; Romanelli, Alejandro

2010-01-01

We study the evolution of initially extended distributions in the coined quantum walk (QW) on the line. By analysing the dispersion relation of the process, continuous wave equations are derived whose form depends on the initial distribution shape. In particular, for a class of initial conditions, the evolution is dictated by the Schroedinger equation of a free particle. As that equation also governs paraxial optical diffraction, all of the phenomenology of the latter can be implemented in the QW. This allows us, in particular, to devise an initially extended condition leading to a uniform probability distribution whose width increases linearly with time, with increasing homogeneity.

Sensitivity of a Simulated Derecho Event to Model Initial Conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Wei

2014-05-01

Since 2003, the MMM division at NCAR has been experimenting cloud-permitting scale weather forecasting using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Over the years, we've tested different model physics, and tried different initial and boundary conditions. Not surprisingly, we found that the model's forecasts are more sensitive to the initial conditions than model physics. In 2012 real-time experiment, WRF-DART (Data Assimilation Research Testbed) at 15 km was employed to produce initial conditions for twice-a-day forecast at 3 km. On June 29, this forecast system captured one of the most destructive derecho event on record. In this presentation, we will examine forecast sensitivity to different model initial conditions, and try to understand the important features that may contribute to the success of the forecast.

Dynamical Predictability of Monthly Means.

Science.gov (United States)

Shukla, J.

1981-12-01

We have attempted to determine the theoretical upper limit of dynamical predictability of monthly means for prescribed nonfluctuating external forcings. We have extended the concept of `classical' predictability, which primarily refers to the lack of predictability due mainly to the instabilities of synoptic-scale disturbances, to the predictability of time averages, which are determined by the predictability of low-frequency planetary waves. We have carded out 60-day integrations of a global general circulation model with nine different initial conditions but identical boundary conditions of sea surface temperature, snow, sea ice and soil moisture. Three of these initial conditions are the observed atmospheric conditions on 1 January of 1975, 1976 and 1977. The other six initial conditions are obtained by superimposing over the observed initial conditions a random perturbation comparable to the errors of observation. The root-mean-square (rms) error of random perturbations at all the grid points and all the model levels is 3 m s1 in u and v components of wind. The rms vector wind error between the observed initial conditions is >15 m s1.It is hypothesized that for a given averaging period, if the rms error among the time averages predicted from largely different initial conditions becomes comparable to the rms error among the time averages predicted from randomly perturbed initial conditions, the time averages are dynamically unpredictable. We have carried out the analysis of variance to compare the variability, among the three groups, due to largely different initial conditions, and within each group due to random perturbations.It is found that the variances among the first 30-day means, predicted from largely different initial conditions, are significantly different from the variances due to random perturbations in the initial conditions, whereas the variances among 30-day means for days 31-60 are not distinguishable from the variances due to random initial

Predicting the Initial Lapse Using a Mobile Health Application after Alcohol Detoxification

Science.gov (United States)

Chih, Ming-Yuan

2013-01-01

The prediction and prevention of the initial lapse--which is defined as the first lapse after a period of abstinence--is important because the initial lapse often leads to subsequent lapses (within the same lapse episode) or relapse. The prediction of the initial lapse may allow preemptive intervention to be possible. This dissertation reports on…

Initial conditioning of the TFTR vacuum vessel

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dylla, H.F.; Blanchard, W.R.; Krawchuk, R.B.; Hawryluk, R.J.; Owens, D.K.

1984-01-01

We report on the initial conditioning of the Tokamak Fusion Test Reactor (TFTR) vacuum vessel prior to the initiation of first plasma discharges, and during subsequent operation with high power ohmically-heated plasmas. Following evacuation of the 86 m 3 vessel with the 10 4 1/s high vacuum pumping system, the vessel was conditioned by a 15 A dc glow discharge in H 2 at a pressure of 5 mTorr. Rapid-pulse discharge cleaning was used subsequently to preferentially condition the graphite plasma limiters. The effectiveness of the discharge cleaning was monitored by measuring the exhaust rates of the primary discharge products (CO/C 2 H 4 , CH 4 , and H 2 O). After 175 hours of glow discharge treatment, the equivalent of 50 monolayers of C and O was removed from the vessel, and the partial pressures of impurity gases were reduced to the range of 10 -9 -10 -10 Torr

Gravity with free initial conditions: A solution to the cosmological constant problem testable by CMB B -mode polarization

Science.gov (United States)

Totani, Tomonori

2017-10-01

In standard general relativity the universe cannot be started with arbitrary initial conditions, because four of the ten components of the Einstein's field equations (EFE) are constraints on initial conditions. In the previous work it was proposed to extend the gravity theory to allow free initial conditions, with a motivation to solve the cosmological constant problem. This was done by setting four constraints on metric variations in the action principle, which is reasonable because the gravity's physical degrees of freedom are at most six. However, there are two problems about this theory; the three constraints in addition to the unimodular condition were introduced without clear physical meanings, and the flat Minkowski spacetime is unstable against perturbations. Here a new set of gravitational field equations is derived by replacing the three constraints with new ones requiring that geodesic paths remain geodesic against metric variations. The instability problem is then naturally solved. Implications for the cosmological constant Λ are unchanged; the theory converges into EFE with nonzero Λ by inflation, but Λ varies on scales much larger than the present Hubble horizon. Then galaxies are formed only in small Λ regions, and the cosmological constant problem is solved by the anthropic argument. Because of the increased degrees of freedom in metric dynamics, the theory predicts new non-oscillatory modes of metric anisotropy generated by quantum fluctuation during inflation, and CMB B -mode polarization would be observed differently from the standard predictions by general relativity.

Online communication predicts Belgian adolescents' initiation of romantic and sexual activity.

Science.gov (United States)

Vandenbosch, Laura; Beyens, Ine; Vangeel, Laurens; Eggermont, Steven

2016-04-01

Online communication is associated with offline romantic and sexual activity among college students. Yet, it is unknown whether online communication is associated with the initiation of romantic and sexual activity among adolescents. This two-wave panel study investigated whether chatting, visiting dating websites, and visiting erotic contact websites predicted adolescents' initiation of romantic and sexual activity. We analyzed two-wave panel data from 1163 Belgian adolescents who participated in the MORES Study. We investigated the longitudinal impact of online communication on the initiation of romantic relationships and sexual intercourse using logistic regression analyses. The odds ratios of initiating a romantic relationship among romantically inexperienced adolescents who frequently used chat rooms, dating websites, or erotic contact websites were two to three times larger than those of non-users. Among sexually inexperienced adolescents who frequently used chat rooms, dating websites, or erotic contact websites, the odds ratios of initiating sexual intercourse were two to five times larger than that among non-users, even after a number of other relevant factors were introduced. This is the first study to demonstrate that online communication predicts the initiation of offline sexual and romantic activity as early as adolescence. Practitioners and parents need to consider the role of online communication in adolescents' developing sexuality. • Adolescents increasingly communicate online with peers. • Online communication predicts romantic and sexual activity among college students. What is New: • Online communication predicts adolescents' offline romantic activity over time. • Online communication predicts adolescents' offline sexual activity over time.

On the initial condition of inflationary fluctuations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jiang, Hongliang; Wang, Yi; Zhou, Siyi

2016-01-01

It is usually assumed that the inflationary fluctuations start from the Bunch-Davies (BD) vacuum and the iε prescription is used when interactions are calculated. We show that those assumptions can be verified explicitly by calculating the loop corrections to the inflationary two-point and three-point correlation functions. Those loop corrections can be resummed to exponential factors, which suppress non-BD coefficients and behave as the iε factor for the case of the BD initial condition. A new technique of loop chain diagram resummation is developed for this purpose. For the non-BD initial conditions which is setup at finite time and has not fully decayed, explicit correction to the two-point and three-point correlation functions are calculated. Especially, non-Gaussianity in the folded limit is regularized due to the interactions.

Protostellar formation in rotating interstellar clouds. VI. Nonuniform initial conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boss, A.P.

1987-01-01

The collapse and fragmentation of rotating protostellar clouds is explored, starting from nonuniform density and nonuniform rotation initial conditions. Whether binary fragmentation occurs during the first dynamic collapse phase depends strongly on the initial density profile. Exponential clouds are only somewhat more resistant to fragmentation than uniform-density clouds, but power-law clouds do not undergo fragmentation for likely values of a relevant parameter. Because binary fragments start from profiles intermediate between uniform density and exponential clouds, minimum protostellar mass for population I stars should be increased to approximately 0.02 solar mass. The axisymmetric Terey et al. (1984) model should be stable with respect to nonaxisymmetric perturbations. Considering the observed binary frequency, collapse from power-law initial conditions appears to be less common than collapse from more uniform initial conditions. 34 references

Relativistic initial conditions for N-body simulations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fidler, Christian [Catholic University of Louvain—Center for Cosmology, Particle Physics and Phenomenology (CP3) 2, Chemin du Cyclotron, B-1348 Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium); Tram, Thomas; Crittenden, Robert; Koyama, Kazuya; Wands, David [Institute of Cosmology and Gravitation, University of Portsmouth, Portsmouth PO1 3FX (United Kingdom); Rampf, Cornelius, E-mail: christian.fidler@uclouvain.be, E-mail: thomas.tram@port.ac.uk, E-mail: rampf@thphys.uni-heidelberg.de, E-mail: robert.crittenden@port.ac.uk, E-mail: kazuya.koyama@port.ac.uk, E-mail: david.wands@port.ac.uk [Institut für Theoretische Physik, Universität Heidelberg, Philosophenweg 16, D–69120 Heidelberg (Germany)

2017-06-01

Initial conditions for (Newtonian) cosmological N-body simulations are usually set by re-scaling the present-day power spectrum obtained from linear (relativistic) Boltzmann codes to the desired initial redshift of the simulation. This back-scaling method can account for the effect of inhomogeneous residual thermal radiation at early times, which is absent in the Newtonian simulations. We analyse this procedure from a fully relativistic perspective, employing the recently-proposed Newtonian motion gauge framework. We find that N-body simulations for ΛCDM cosmology starting from back-scaled initial conditions can be self-consistently embedded in a relativistic space-time with first-order metric potentials calculated using a linear Boltzmann code. This space-time coincides with a simple ''N-body gauge'' for z < 50 for all observable modes. Care must be taken, however, when simulating non-standard cosmologies. As an example, we analyse the back-scaling method in a cosmology with decaying dark matter, and show that metric perturbations become large at early times in the back-scaling approach, indicating a breakdown of the perturbative description. We suggest a suitable ''forwards approach' for such cases.

Variation formulae for the solutions of delay differential equations with discontinuous initial conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kharatishvili, G L; Tadumadze, T A

2005-01-01

Variation formulae are proved for solutions of non-linear differential equations with variable delays and discontinuous initial conditions. The discontinuity of the initial condition means that at the initial moment of time the values of the initial function and the trajectory, generally speaking, do not coincide. The formulae obtained contain a new summand connected with the discontinuity of the initial condition and the variation of the initial moment.

Nonparametric conditional predictive regions for time series

NARCIS (Netherlands)

de Gooijer, J.G.; Zerom Godefay, D.

2000-01-01

Several nonparametric predictors based on the Nadaraya-Watson kernel regression estimator have been proposed in the literature. They include the conditional mean, the conditional median, and the conditional mode. In this paper, we consider three types of predictive regions for these predictors — the

STAR FORMATION AT VERY LOW METALLICITY. V. THE GREATER IMPORTANCE OF INITIAL CONDITIONS COMPARED TO METALLICITY THRESHOLDS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jappsen, Anne-Katharina; Low, Mordecai-Mark Mac; Glover, Simon C. O.; Klessen, Ralf S.; Kitsionas, Spyridon

2009-01-01

The formation of the first stars out of metal-free gas appears to result in stars at least an order of magnitude more massive than in the present-day case. We here consider what controls the transition from a primordial to a modern initial mass function. It has been proposed that this occurs when effective metal line cooling occurs at a metallicity threshold of Z/Z sun > 10 -3.5 . We study the influence of low levels of metal enrichment on the cooling and collapse of initially ionized gas in small protogalactic halos using three-dimensional, smoothed particle hydrodynamics simulations with particle splitting. Our initial conditions represent protogalaxies forming within a previously ionized H II region that has not yet had time to cool and recombine. These differ considerably from those used in simulations predicting a metallicity threshold, where the gas was initially cold and only partially ionized. In the centrally condensed potential that we study here, a wide variety of initial conditions for the gas yields a monolithic central collapse. Our models show no fragmentation during collapse to number densities as high as 10 5 cm -3 , for metallicities reaching as high as 10 -1 Z sun , far above the threshold suggested by previous work. Rotation allows for the formation of gravitationally stable gas disks over large fractions of the local Hubble time. Turbulence slows the growth of the central density slightly, but both spherically symmetric and turbulent initial conditions collapse and form a single sink particle. We therefore argue that fragmentation at moderate density depends on the initial conditions for star formation more than on the metal abundances present. The actual initial conditions to be considered still need to be determined in detail by observation and modeling of galaxy formation. Metal abundance may still drive fragmentation at very high densities due to dust cooling, perhaps giving an alternative metallicity threshold.

A new equilibrium torus solution and GRMHD initial conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Penna, Robert F.; Kulkarni, Akshay; Narayan, Ramesh

2013-11-01

Context. General relativistic magnetohydrodynamic (GRMHD) simulations are providing influential models for black hole spin measurements, gamma ray bursts, and supermassive black hole feedback. Many of these simulations use the same initial condition: a rotating torus of fluid in hydrostatic equilibrium. A persistent concern is that simulation results sometimes depend on arbitrary features of the initial torus. For example, the Bernoulli parameter (which is related to outflows), appears to be controlled by the Bernoulli parameter of the initial torus. Aims: In this paper, we give a new equilibrium torus solution and describe two applications for the future. First, it can be used as a more physical initial condition for GRMHD simulations than earlier torus solutions. Second, it can be used in conjunction with earlier torus solutions to isolate the simulation results that depend on initial conditions. Methods: We assume axisymmetry, an ideal gas equation of state, constant entropy, and ignore self-gravity. We fix an angular momentum distribution and solve the relativistic Euler equations in the Kerr metric. Results: The Bernoulli parameter, rotation rate, and geometrical thickness of the torus can be adjusted independently. Our torus tends to be more bound and have a larger radial extent than earlier torus solutions. Conclusions: While this paper was in preparation, several GRMHD simulations appeared based on our equilibrium torus. We believe it will continue to provide a more realistic starting point for future simulations.

Conditional Probabilities in the Excursion Set Theory. Generic Barriers and non-Gaussian Initial Conditions

CERN Document Server

De Simone, Andrea; Riotto, Antonio

2011-01-01

The excursion set theory, where density perturbations evolve stochastically with the smoothing scale, provides a method for computing the dark matter halo mass function. The computation of the mass function is mapped into the so-called first-passage time problem in the presence of a moving barrier. The excursion set theory is also a powerful formalism to study other properties of dark matter halos such as halo bias, accretion rate, formation time, merging rate and the formation history of halos. This is achieved by computing conditional probabilities with non-trivial initial conditions, and the conditional two-barrier first-crossing rate. In this paper we use the recently-developed path integral formulation of the excursion set theory to calculate analytically these conditional probabilities in the presence of a generic moving barrier, including the one describing the ellipsoidal collapse, and for both Gaussian and non-Gaussian initial conditions. The non-Markovianity of the random walks induced by non-Gaussi...

Consistent initial conditions for the Saint-Venant equations in river network modeling

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C.-W. Yu

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Initial conditions for flows and depths (cross-sectional areas throughout a river network are required for any time-marching (unsteady solution of the one-dimensional (1-D hydrodynamic Saint-Venant equations. For a river network modeled with several Strahler orders of tributaries, comprehensive and consistent synoptic data are typically lacking and synthetic starting conditions are needed. Because of underlying nonlinearity, poorly defined or inconsistent initial conditions can lead to convergence problems and long spin-up times in an unsteady solver. Two new approaches are defined and demonstrated herein for computing flows and cross-sectional areas (or depths. These methods can produce an initial condition data set that is consistent with modeled landscape runoff and river geometry boundary conditions at the initial time. These new methods are (1 the pseudo time-marching method (PTM that iterates toward a steady-state initial condition using an unsteady Saint-Venant solver and (2 the steady-solution method (SSM that makes use of graph theory for initial flow rates and solution of a steady-state 1-D momentum equation for the channel cross-sectional areas. The PTM is shown to be adequate for short river reaches but is significantly slower and has occasional non-convergent behavior for large river networks. The SSM approach is shown to provide a rapid solution of consistent initial conditions for both small and large networks, albeit with the requirement that additional code must be written rather than applying an existing unsteady Saint-Venant solver.

Predicting the susceptibility to gully initiation in data-poor regions

Science.gov (United States)

Dewitte, Olivier; Daoudi, Mohamed; Bosco, Claudio; Van Den Eeckhaut, Miet

2015-01-01

Permanent gullies are common features in many landscapes and quite often they represent the dominant soil erosion process. Once a gully has initiated, field evidence shows that gully channel formation and headcut migration rapidly occur. In order to prevent the undesired effects of gullying, there is a need to predict the places where new gullies might initiate. From detailed field measurements, studies have demonstrated strong inverse relationships between slope gradient of the soil surface (S) and drainage area (A) at the point of channel initiation across catchments in different climatic and morphological environments. Such slope-area thresholds (S-A) can be used to predict locations in the landscape where gullies might initiate. However, acquiring S-A requires detailed field investigations and accurate high resolution digital elevation data, which are usually difficult to acquire. To circumvent this issue, we propose a two-step method that uses published S-A thresholds and a logistic regression analysis (LR). S-A thresholds from the literature are used as proxies of field measurement. The method is calibrated and validated on a watershed, close to the town of Algiers, northern Algeria, where gully erosion affects most of the slopes. The gullies extend up to several kilometres in length and cover 16% of the study area. First we reconstruct the initiation areas of the existing gullies by applying S-A thresholds for similar environments. Then, using the initiation area map as the dependent variable with combinations of topographic and lithological predictor variables, we calibrate several LR models. It provides relevant results in terms of statistical reliability, prediction performance, and geomorphological significance. This method using S-A thresholds with data-driven assessment methods like LR proves to be efficient when applied to common spatial data and establishes a methodology that will allow similar studies to be undertaken elsewhere.

The conditions that promote fear learning: prediction error and Pavlovian fear conditioning.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Susan Shi Yuan; McNally, Gavan P

2014-02-01

A key insight of associative learning theory is that learning depends on the actions of prediction error: a discrepancy between the actual and expected outcomes of a conditioning trial. When positive, such error causes increments in associative strength and, when negative, such error causes decrements in associative strength. Prediction error can act directly on fear learning by determining the effectiveness of the aversive unconditioned stimulus or indirectly by determining the effectiveness, or associability, of the conditioned stimulus. Evidence from a variety of experimental preparations in human and non-human animals suggest that discrete neural circuits code for these actions of prediction error during fear learning. Here we review the circuits and brain regions contributing to the neural coding of prediction error during fear learning and highlight areas of research (safety learning, extinction, and reconsolidation) that may profit from this approach to understanding learning. Crown Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Online sequential condition prediction method of natural circulation systems based on EOS-ELM and phase space reconstruction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen, Hanying; Gao, Puzhen; Tan, Sichao; Tang, Jiguo; Yuan, Hongsheng

2017-01-01

Highlights: •An online condition prediction method for natural circulation systems in NPP was proposed based on EOS-ELM. •The proposed online prediction method was validated using experimental data. •The training speed of the proposed method is significantly fast. •The proposed method can achieve good accuracy in wide parameter range. -- Abstract: Natural circulation design is widely used in the passive safety systems of advanced nuclear power reactors. The irregular and chaotic flow oscillations are often observed in boiling natural circulation systems so it is difficult for operators to monitor and predict the condition of these systems. An online condition forecasting method for natural circulation system is proposed in this study as an assisting technique for plant operators. The proposed prediction approach was developed based on Ensemble of Online Sequential Extreme Learning Machine (EOS-ELM) and phase space reconstruction. Online Sequential Extreme Learning Machine (OS-ELM) is an online sequential learning neural network algorithm and EOS-ELM is the ensemble method of it. The proposed condition prediction method can be initiated by a small chunk of monitoring data and it can be updated by newly arrived data at very fast speed during the online prediction. Simulation experiments were conducted on the data of two natural circulation loops to validate the performance of the proposed method. The simulation results show that the proposed predication model can successfully recognize different types of flow oscillations and accurately forecast the trend of monitored plant variables. The influence of the number of hidden nodes and neural network inputs on prediction performance was studied and the proposed model can achieve good accuracy in a wide parameter range. Moreover, the comparison results show that the proposed condition prediction method has much faster online learning speed and better prediction accuracy than conventional neural network model.

Conditional prediction intervals of wind power generation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pinson, Pierre; Kariniotakis, Georges

2010-01-01

A generic method for the providing of prediction intervals of wind power generation is described. Prediction intervals complement the more common wind power point forecasts, by giving a range of potential outcomes for a given probability, their so-called nominal coverage rate. Ideally they inform...... on the characteristics of prediction errors for providing conditional interval forecasts. By simultaneously generating prediction intervals with various nominal coverage rates, one obtains full predictive distributions of wind generation. Adapted resampling is applied here to the case of an onshore Danish wind farm...... to the case of a large number of wind farms in Europe and Australia among others is finally discussed....

Quantifying uncertainty in Gulf of Mexico forecasts stemming from uncertain initial conditions

KAUST Repository

Iskandarani, Mohamed; Le Hé naff, Matthieu; Srinivasan, Ashwanth; Knio, Omar

2016-01-01

Polynomial Chaos (PC) methods are used to quantify the impacts of initial conditions uncertainties on oceanic forecasts of the Gulf of Mexico circulation. Empirical Orthogonal Functions are used as initial conditions perturbations with their modal

Effects of the initial conditions on cosmological $N$-body simulations

OpenAIRE

L'Huillier, Benjamin; Park, Changbom; Kim, Juhan

2014-01-01

Cosmology is entering an era of percent level precision due to current large observational surveys. This precision in observation is now demanding more accuracy from numerical methods and cosmological simulations. In this paper, we study the accuracy of $N$-body numerical simulations and their dependence on changes in the initial conditions and in the simulation algorithms. For this purpose, we use a series of cosmological $N$-body simulations with varying initial conditions. We test the infl...

Robust Initial Wetness Condition Framework of an Event-Based Rainfall–Runoff Model Using Remotely Sensed Soil Moisture

OpenAIRE

Wooyeon Sunwoo; Minha Choi

2017-01-01

Runoff prediction in limited-data areas is vital for hydrological applications, such as the design of infrastructure and flood defenses, runoff forecasting, and water management. Rainfall–runoff models may be useful for simulation of runoff generation, particularly event-based models, which offer a practical modeling scheme because of their simplicity. However, there is a need to reduce the uncertainties related to the estimation of the initial wetness condition (IWC) prior to a rainfall even...

Prediction of knock limited operating conditions of a natural gas engine

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Soylu, Seref

2005-01-01

Computer models of engine processes are valuable tools for predicting and analyzing engine performance and allow exploration of many engine design alternatives in an inexpensive fashion. In the present work, a zero-dimensional, two zone thermodynamic model was used to determine the knock limited operating conditions of a natural gas engine. Experimentally based burning rate models were used for flame initiation and propagation calculations. A knock model was incorporated with the zero-dimensional model. Comparison of the measured and calculated cylinder pressure data indicated that the model is able to match the measured cylinder pressure data with less than 8% error in magnitudes if the computations are started at the experimental spark timing. The knock predictions agreed with the measurements also. With the established knock model, it is possible not only to investigate whether knock is observed with changing operating and design parameters, but also to evaluate their effects on the maximum possible knock intensity

An effort to improve track and intensity prediction of tropical cyclones through vortex initialization in NCUM-global model

Science.gov (United States)

Singh, Vivek; Routray, A.; Mallick, Swapan; George, John P.; Rajagopal, E. N.

2016-05-01

Tropical cyclones (TCs) have strong impact on socio-economic conditions of the countries like India, Bangladesh and Myanmar owing to its awful devastating power. This brings in the need of precise forecasting system to predict the tracks and intensities of TCs accurately well in advance. However, it has been a great challenge for major operational meteorological centers over the years. Genesis of TCs over data sparse warm Tropical Ocean adds more difficulty to this. Weak and misplaced vortices at initial time are one of the prime sources of track and intensity errors in the Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. Many previous studies have reported the forecast skill of track and intensity of TC improved due to the assimilation of satellite data along with vortex initialization (VI). Keeping this in mind, an attempt has been made to investigate the impact of vortex initialization for simulation of TC using UK-Met office global model, operational at NCMRWF (NCUM). This assessment is carried out by taking the case of a extremely severe cyclonic storm "Chapala" that occurred over Arabian Sea (AS) from 28th October to 3rd November 2015. Two numerical experiments viz. Vort-GTS (Assimilation of GTS observations with VI) and Vort-RAD (Same as Vort-GTS with assimilation of satellite data) are carried out. This vortex initialization study in NCUM model is first of its type over North Indian Ocean (NIO). The model simulation of TC is carried out with five different initial conditions through 24 hour cycles for both the experiments. The results indicate that the vortex initialization with assimilation of satellite data has a positive impact on the track and intensity forecast, landfall time and position error of the TCs.

MUSIC: MUlti-Scale Initial Conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Hahn, Oliver; Abel, Tom

2013-11-01

MUSIC generates multi-scale initial conditions with multiple levels of refinements for cosmological ‘zoom-in’ simulations. The code uses an adaptive convolution of Gaussian white noise with a real-space transfer function kernel together with an adaptive multi-grid Poisson solver to generate displacements and velocities following first- (1LPT) or second-order Lagrangian perturbation theory (2LPT). MUSIC achieves rms relative errors of the order of 10-4 for displacements and velocities in the refinement region and thus improves in terms of errors by about two orders of magnitude over previous approaches. In addition, errors are localized at coarse-fine boundaries and do not suffer from Fourier space-induced interference ringing.

Ductile Crack Initiation Criterion with Mismatched Weld Joints Under Dynamic Loading Conditions.

Science.gov (United States)

An, Gyubaek; Jeong, Se-Min; Park, Jeongung

2018-03-01

Brittle failure of high toughness steel structures tends to occur after ductile crack initiation/propagation. Damages to steel structures were reported in the Hanshin Great Earthquake. Several brittle failures were observed in beam-to-column connection zones with geometrical discontinuity. It is widely known that triaxial stresses accelerate the ductile fracture of steels. The study examined the effects of geometrical heterogeneity and strength mismatches (both of which elevate plastic constraints due to heterogeneous plastic straining) and loading rate on critical conditions initiating ductile fracture. This involved applying the two-parameter criterion (involving equivalent plastic strain and stress triaxiality) to estimate ductile cracking for strength mismatched specimens under static and dynamic tensile loading conditions. Ductile crack initiation testing was conducted under static and dynamic loading conditions using circumferentially notched specimens (Charpy type) with/without strength mismatches. The results indicated that the condition for ductile crack initiation using the two parameter criterion was a transferable criterion to evaluate ductile crack initiation independent of the existence of strength mismatches and loading rates.

The halo bispectrum in N-body simulations with non-Gaussian initial conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Sefusatti, E.; Crocce, M.; Desjacques, V.

2012-10-01

We present measurements of the bispectrum of dark matter haloes in numerical simulations with non-Gaussian initial conditions of local type. We show, in the first place, that the overall effect of primordial non-Gaussianity on the halo bispectrum is larger than on the halo power spectrum when all measurable configurations are taken into account. We then compare our measurements with a tree-level perturbative prediction, finding good agreement at large scales when the constant Gaussian bias parameter, both linear and quadratic, and their constant non-Gaussian corrections are fitted for. The best-fitting values of the Gaussian bias factors and their non-Gaussian, scale-independent corrections are in qualitative agreement with the peak-background split expectations. In particular, we show that the effect of non-Gaussian initial conditions on squeezed configurations is fairly large (up to 30 per cent for fNL = 100 at redshift z = 0.5) and results from contributions of similar amplitude induced by the initial matter bispectrum, scale-dependent bias corrections as well as from non-linear matter bispectrum corrections. We show, in addition, that effects at second order in fNL are irrelevant for the range of values allowed by cosmic microwave background and galaxy power spectrum measurements, at least on the scales probed by our simulations (k > 0.01 h Mpc-1). Finally, we present a Fisher matrix analysis to assess the possibility of constraining primordial non-Gaussianity with future measurements of the galaxy bispectrum. We find that a survey with a volume of about 10 h-3 Gpc3 at mean redshift z ≃ 1 could provide an error on fNL of the order of a few. This shows the relevance of a joint analysis of galaxy power spectrum and bispectrum in future redshift surveys.

Initial conditions of radiative shock experiments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kuranz, C. C.; Drake, R. P.; Krauland, C. M.; Marion, D. C.; Grosskopf, M. J.; Rutter, E.; Torralva, B.; Holloway, J. P.; Bingham, D.; Goh, J.; Boehly, T. R.; Sorce, A. T.

2013-01-01

We performed experiments at the Omega Laser Facility to characterize the initial, laser-driven state of a radiative shock experiment. These experiments aimed to measure the shock breakout time from a thin, laser-irradiated Be disk. The data are then used to inform a range of valid model parameters, such as electron flux limiter and polytropic γ, used when simulating radiative shock experiments using radiation hydrodynamics codes. The characterization experiment and the radiative shock experiment use a laser irradiance of ∼7 × 10 14 W cm −2 to launch a shock in the Be disk. A velocity interferometer and a streaked optical pyrometer were used to infer the amount of time for the shock to move through the Be disk. The experimental results were compared with simulation results from the Hyades code, which can be used to model the initial conditions of a radiative shock system using the CRASH code

Role of Ocean Initial Conditions to Diminish Dry Bias in the Seasonal Prediction of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall: A Case Study Using Climate Forecast System

Science.gov (United States)

Koul, Vimal; Parekh, Anant; Srinivas, G.; Kakatkar, Rashmi; Chowdary, Jasti S.; Gnanaseelan, C.

2018-03-01

Coupled models tend to underestimate Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall over most of the Indian subcontinent. Present study demonstrates that a part of dry bias is arising from the discrepancies in Oceanic Initial Conditions (OICs). Two hindcast experiments are carried out using Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) for summer monsoons of 2012-2014 in which two different OICs are utilized. With respect to first experiment (CTRL), second experiment (AcSAL) differs by two aspects: usage of high-resolution atmospheric forcing and assimilation of only ARGO observed temperature and salinity profiles for OICs. Assessment of OICs indicates that the quality of OICs is enhanced due to assimilation of actual salinity profiles. Analysis reveals that AcSAL experiment showed 10% reduction in the dry bias over the Indian land region during the ISM compared to CTRL. This improvement is consistently apparent in each month and is highest for June. The better representation of upper ocean thermal structure of tropical oceans at initial stage supports realistic upper ocean stability and mixing. Which in fact reduced the dominant cold bias over the ocean, feedback to air-sea interactions and land sea thermal contrast resulting better representation of monsoon circulation and moisture transport. This reduced bias of tropospheric moisture and temperature over the Indian land mass and also produced better tropospheric temperature gradient over land as well as ocean. These feedback processes reduced the dry bias in the ISM rainfall. Study concludes that initializing the coupled models with realistic OICs can reduce the underestimation of ISM rainfall prediction.

Initial Cladding Condition

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Siegmann, E.

2000-01-01

The purpose of this analysis is to describe the condition of commercial Zircaloy clad fuel as it is received at the Yucca Mountain Project (YMP) site. Most commercial nuclear fuel is encased in Zircaloy cladding. This analysis is developed to describe cladding degradation from the expected failure modes. This includes reactor operation impacts including incipient failures, potential degradation after reactor operation during spent fuel storage in pool and dry storage and impacts due to transportation. Degradation modes include cladding creep, and delayed hydride cracking during dry storage and transportation. Mechanical stresses from fuel handling and transportation vibrations are also included. This Analysis and Model Report (AMR) does not address any potential damage to assemblies that might occur at the YMP surface facilities. Ranges and uncertainties have been defined. This analysis will be the initial boundary condition for the analysis of cladding degradation inside the repository. In accordance with AP-2.13Q, ''Technical Product Development Planning'', a work plan (CRWMS M andO 2000c) was developed, issued, and utilized in the preparation of this document. There are constraints, caveats and limitations to this analysis. This cladding degradation analysis is based on commercial Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) fuel with Zircaloy cladding but is applicable to Boiling Water Reactor (BWR) fuel. Reactor operating experience for both PWRs and BWRs is used to establish fuel reliability from reactor operation. It is limited to fuel exposed to normal operation and anticipated operational occurrences (i.e. events which are anticipated to occur within a reactor lifetime), and not to fuel that has been exposed to severe accidents. Fuel burnup projections have been limited to the current commercial reactor licensing environment with restrictions on fuel enrichment, oxide coating thickness and rod plenum pressures. The information provided in this analysis will be used in

A new model for predicting performance of fin-and-tube heat exchanger under frost condition

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cui, J.; Li, W.Z.; Liu, Y.; Zhao, Y.S.

2011-01-01

Accurate prediction of frost characteristics has crucial influence on designing effective heat exchangers. In this paper, a new CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) model has been proposed to predict the frost behaviour. The initial period of frost formation can be predicted and the influence of surface structure can be considered. The numerical simulations have been carried out to investigate the performance of fin-and-tube heat exchanger under frost condition. The results have been validated by comparison of simulations with the data computed by empirical formulas. The transient local frost formation has been obtained. The average frost thickness, heat exchanger coefficient and pressure drop on air side has been analysed as well. In addition, the influence factors have also been discussed, such as fin pitch, relative humidity, air flow rate and evaporating temperature of refrigerant.

Influence of initial conditions on rod behaviour during boiling crisis phase following a reactivity initiated accident

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Georgenthum, V.; Sugiyama, T.

2010-01-01

In the frame of their research programs on high burn-up fuel safety, the French Institute for Radioprotection and Nuclear Safety (IRSN) and the Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA) performed a large set of tests devoted to the study of PWR fuel rod behavior during Reactivity Initiated Accident (RIA) respectively in the CABRI reactor and in the NSRR reactor. The reactor test conditions are different in terms of coolant nature, temperature and pressure. In the CABRI reactor, tests were performed until now with sodium coolant at 280 Celsius degrees and 3 bar. In the NSRR reactor most of the tests were performed with stagnant water at 20 C. degrees and atmospheric pressure but recently a new high temperature high pressure capsule has been developed which allows to performed tests at up to 280 Celsius degrees and 70 bar. The paper discusses the influence of test conditions on rod behaviour during boiling phase, based on tests results and SCANAIR code calculations. The study shows that when the boiling crisis is reached, the initial inner and outer rod pressure have an essential impact on the clad straining and possible ballooning. The analysis of the different test conditions makes it possible to discriminate the influence of initial conditions on the different phases of the transient and is useful for modelling and code development. (authors)

Robustness of inflation to inhomogeneous initial conditions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Clough, Katy; Lim, Eugene A. [Theoretical Particle Physics and Cosmology Group, Physics Department, Kings College London, Strand, London WC2R 2LS (United Kingdom); DiNunno, Brandon S.; Fischler, Willy; Flauger, Raphael; Paban, Sonia, E-mail: katy.clough@kcl.ac.uk, E-mail: eugene.a.lim@gmail.com, E-mail: bsd86@physics.utexas.edu, E-mail: fischler@physics.utexas.edu, E-mail: flauger@physics.utexas.edu, E-mail: paban@physics.utexas.edu [Department of Physics, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, 78712 (United States)

2017-09-01

We consider the effects of inhomogeneous initial conditions in both the scalar field profile and the extrinsic curvature on different inflationary models. In particular, we compare the robustness of small field inflation to that of large field inflation, using numerical simulations with Einstein gravity in 3+1 dimensions. We find that small field inflation can fail in the presence of subdominant gradient energies, suggesting that it is much less robust to inhomogeneities than large field inflation, which withstands dominant gradient energies. However, we also show that small field inflation can be successful even if some regions of spacetime start out in the region of the potential that does not support inflation. In the large field case, we confirm previous results that inflation is robust if the inflaton occupies the inflationary part of the potential. Furthermore, we show that increasing initial scalar gradients will not form sufficiently massive inflation-ending black holes if the initial hypersurface is approximately flat. Finally, we consider the large field case with a varying extrinsic curvature K , such that some regions are initially collapsing. We find that this may again lead to local black holes, but overall the spacetime remains inflationary if the spacetime is open, which confirms previous theoretical studies.

Chaotic inflation as an attractor in initial-condition space

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kung, J.H.; Brandenberger, R.H.

1990-01-01

We study the evolution of scalar field inhomogeneities in the preinflationary phase of an inflationary universe. We decompose the scalar field configuration in Fourier modes and consider initial conditions in which more than one mode is excited. We find that the long-wavelength modes are stable against perturbations due to short-wavelength excitations and that chaotic inflation results even if at the initial time the short waves contain most of the energy density

Determination of Initial Conditions for the Safety Analysis by Random Sampling of Operating Parameters

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jeong, Hae-Yong; Park, Moon-Ghu

2015-01-01

In most existing evaluation methodologies, which follow a conservative approach, the most conservative initial conditions are searched for each transient scenario through tremendous assessment for wide operating windows or limiting conditions for operation (LCO) allowed by the operating guidelines. In this procedure, a user effect could be involved and a remarkable time and human resources are consumed. In the present study, we investigated a more effective statistical method for the selection of the most conservative initial condition by the use of random sampling of operating parameters affecting the initial conditions. A method for the determination of initial conditions based on random sampling of plant design parameters is proposed. This method is expected to be applied for the selection of the most conservative initial plant conditions in the safety analysis using a conservative evaluation methodology. In the method, it is suggested that the initial conditions of reactor coolant flow rate, pressurizer level, pressurizer pressure, and SG level are adjusted by controlling the pump rated flow, setpoints of PLCS, PPCS, and FWCS, respectively. The proposed technique is expected to contribute to eliminate the human factors introduced in the conventional safety analysis procedure and also to reduce the human resources invested in the safety evaluation of nuclear power plants

A computation method for mass flowrate predictions in critical flows of initially subcooled liquid in long channels

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Celata, G.P.; D'Annibale, F.; Farello, G.E.

1985-01-01

It is suggested a fast and accurate computation method for the prediction of mass flowrate in critical flows initially subcooled liquid from ''long'' discharge channels (high LID values). Starting from a previous very simple correlation proposed by the authors, further improvements in the model enable to widen the method reliability up to initial saturation conditions. A comparison of computed values with 145 experimental data regarding several investigations carried out at the Heat Transfer Laboratory (TERM/ISP, ENEA Casaccia) shows an excellent agreement. The computed data shifting from experimental ones is within ±10% for almost all data, with a slight increase towards low inlet subcoolings. The average error, for all the considered data, is 4,6%

Sensitivity of decadal predictions to the initial atmospheric and oceanic perturbations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Du, H.; Garcia-Serrano, J.; Guemas, V.; Soufflet, Y. [Institut Catala de Ciencies del Clima (IC3), Barcelona (Spain); Doblas-Reyes, F.J. [Institut Catala de Ciencies del Clima (IC3), Barcelona (Spain); Institucio Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avancats (ICREA), Barcelona (Spain); Wouters, B. [Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt (Netherlands)

2012-10-15

A coupled global atmosphere-ocean model is employed to investigate the impact of initial perturbation methods on the behaviour of five-member ensemble decadal re-forecasts. Three initial-condition perturbation strategies, atmosphere only, ocean only and atmosphere-ocean, have been used and the impact on selected variables have been investigated. The impact has been assessed in terms of climate drift, forecast quality and spread. The simulated global means of near-surface air temperature (T2M), sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice area (SIA) for both Arctic and Antarctic show reasonably good quality, in spite of the non-negligible drift of the model. The skill in terms of correlation is not significantly affected by the particular perturbation method employed. The ensemble spread generated for T2M, SST and land surface precipitation (PCP) saturates quickly with any of the perturbation methods. However, for SIA, Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and ocean heat content (OHC), the spread increases substantially during the forecast time when ocean perturbations are applied. Ocean perturbations are particularly important for Antarctic SIA and OHC for the middle and deep layers of the ocean. The results will be helpful in the design of ensemble prediction experiments. (orig.)

Effects of ocean initial perturbation on developing phase of ENSO in a coupled seasonal prediction model

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Hyun-Chul; Kumar, Arun; Wang, Wanqiu

2018-03-01

Coupled prediction systems for seasonal and inter-annual variability in the tropical Pacific are initialized from ocean analyses. In ocean initial states, small scale perturbations are inevitably smoothed or distorted by the observational limits and data assimilation procedures, which tends to induce potential ocean initial errors for the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) prediction. Here, the evolution and effects of ocean initial errors from the small scale perturbation on the developing phase of ENSO are investigated by an ensemble of coupled model predictions. Results show that the ocean initial errors at the thermocline in the western tropical Pacific grow rapidly to project on the first mode of equatorial Kelvin wave and propagate to the east along the thermocline. In boreal spring when the surface buoyancy flux weakens in the eastern tropical Pacific, the subsurface errors influence sea surface temperature variability and would account for the seasonal dependence of prediction skill in the NINO3 region. It is concluded that the ENSO prediction in the eastern tropical Pacific after boreal spring can be improved by increasing the observational accuracy of subsurface ocean initial states in the western tropical Pacific.

Prediction model for initial point of net vapor generation for low-flow boiling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sun Qi; Zhao Hua; Yang Ruichang

2003-01-01

The prediction of the initial point of net vapor generation is significant for the calculation of phase distribution in sub-cooled boiling. However, most of the investigations were developed in high-flow boiling, and there is no common model that could be successfully applied for the low-flow boiling. A predictive model for the initial point of net vapor generation for low-flow forced convection and natural circulation is established here, by the analysis of evaporation and condensation heat transfer. The comparison between experimental data and calculated results shows that this model can predict the net vapor generation point successfully in low-flow sub-cooled boiling

Effect of initial conditions on combustion generated loads

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tieszen, S.R.

1993-01-01

This analytical study examines the effect of initial thermodynamic conditions on the loads generated by the combustion of homogeneous hydrogen-air-steam mixtures. The effect of initial temperature, pressure, hydrogen concentration, and steam concentration is evaluated for two cases, (1) constant volume and (2) constant initial pressure. For each case, the Adiabatic, Isochoric, Complete Combustion (AICC), Chapman-Jouguet (CJ), and normally reflected CJ pressures are calculated for a range of hydrogen and steam concentrations representative of the entire flammable regime. For detonation loads, pressure profiles and time-histories are also evaluated in one-dimensional Cartesian geometry. The results show that to a first approximation, the AICC and CJ pressures are directly proportional to the initial density. Increasing the hydrogen concentration up to stoichiometric concentrations significantly increases the AICC, CJ, and reflected CJ pressures. For the constant volume case, the AICC, CJ, and reflected CJ pressures increase with increasing hydrogen concentration on the rich side of stoichiometric concentrations. For the constant initial pressure case, the AICC, CJ, and reflected CJ pressures decrease with increasing hydrogen concentration on the rich side of stoichiometric values. The addition of steam decreases the AICC, CJ, and reflected CJ pressures for the constant initial pressure case, but increases them for the constant volume case. For detonations, the pressure time-histories can be normalized with the AICC pressure and the reverberation time for Cartesion geometry. (orig.)

Full-field initialized decadal predictions with the MPI earth system model: an initial shock in the North Atlantic

Science.gov (United States)

Kröger, Jürgen; Pohlmann, Holger; Sienz, Frank; Marotzke, Jochem; Baehr, Johanna; Köhl, Armin; Modali, Kameswarrao; Polkova, Iuliia; Stammer, Detlef; Vamborg, Freja S. E.; Müller, Wolfgang A.

2017-12-01

Our decadal climate prediction system, which is based on the Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model, is initialized from a coupled assimilation run that utilizes nudging to selected state parameters from reanalyses. We apply full-field nudging in the atmosphere and either full-field or anomaly nudging in the ocean. Full fields from two different ocean reanalyses are considered. This comparison of initialization strategies focuses on the North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre (SPG) region, where the transition from anomaly to full-field nudging reveals large differences in prediction skill for sea surface temperature and ocean heat content (OHC). We show that nudging of temperature and salinity in the ocean modifies OHC and also induces changes in mass and heat transports associated with the ocean flow. In the SPG region, the assimilated OHC signal resembles well OHC from observations, regardless of using full fields or anomalies. The resulting ocean transport, on the other hand, reveals considerable differences between full-field and anomaly nudging. In all assimilation runs, ocean heat transport together with net heat exchange at the surface does not correspond to OHC tendencies, the SPG heat budget is not closed. Discrepancies in the budget in the cases of full-field nudging exceed those in the case of anomaly nudging by a factor of 2-3. The nudging-induced changes in ocean transport continue to be present in the free running hindcasts for up to 5 years, a clear expression of memory in our coupled system. In hindcast mode, on annual to inter-annual scales, ocean heat transport is the dominant driver of SPG OHC. Thus, we ascribe a significant reduction in OHC prediction skill when using full-field instead of anomaly initialization to an initialization shock resulting from the poor initialization of the ocean flow.

No-hair conjectures, primordial shear and protoinflationary initial conditions

CERN Document Server

Giovannini, Massimo

2014-01-01

Anisotropic inflationary background geometries are analyzed in the context of an extended gauge action where the electric and magnetic susceptibilities are not bound to coincide and depend on the inflaton field. After deriving various classes of solutions with electric and magnetic hairs, we discuss the problem of the initial boundary conditions of the shear parameter and consider a globally neutral plasma as a possible relic of a preinflationary stage of expansion. While electric hairs are washed out by the finite value of the protoinflationary conductivity, magnetic hairs can persist and introduce a tiny amount of shear causing a different inflationary rate of expansion along orthogonal spatial directions. The plasma interactions are a necessary criterion to discriminate between physical and unphysical initial conditions but they are not strictly sufficient to warrant the stability of a given magnetic solution.

Soil erosion and effluent particle size distribution under different initial conditions and rock fragment coverage

Science.gov (United States)

Jomaa, S.; Barry, D. A.; Brovelli, A.; Heng, B. C. P.; Sander, G. C.; Parlange, J.-Y.

2012-04-01

It is well known that the presence of rock fragments on the soil surface and the soil's initial characteristics (moisture content, surface roughness, bulk density, etc.) are key factors influencing soil erosion dynamics and sediment delivery. In addition, the interaction of these factors increases the complexity of soil erosion patterns and makes predictions more difficult. The aim of this study was (i) to investigate the effect of soil initial conditions and rock fragment coverage on soil erosion yields and effluent particle size distribution and (ii) to evaluate to what extent the rock fragment coverage controls this relationship. Three laboratory flume experiments with constant precipitation rate of 74 mm/h on a loamy soil parcel with a 2% slope were performed. Experiments with duration of 2 h were conducted using the 6-m × 2-m EPFL erosion flume. During each experiment two conditions were considered, a bare soil and a rock fragment-protected (with 40% coverage) soil. The initial soil surface state was varied between the three experiments, from a freshly re-ploughed and almost dry condition to a compacted soil with a well-developed shield layer and high moisture content. Experiments were designed so that rain splash was the primary driver of soil erosion. Results showed that the amount of eroded mass was highly controlled by the initial soil conditions and whether the steady-state equilibrium was un-, partially- or fully- developed during the previous event. Additionally, results revealed that sediment yields and particle size composition in the initial part of an erosion event are more sensitive to the erosion history than the long-time behaviour. This latter appears to be mainly controlled by rainfall intensity. If steady-state was achieved for a previous event, then the next event consistently produced concentrations for each size class that peaked rapidly, and then declined gradually to steady-state equilibrium. If steady state was not obtained, then

Fatigue crack initiation and growth life prediction with statistical consideration

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kwon, J.D.; Choi, S.H.; Kwak, S.G.; Chun, K.O.

1991-01-01

Life prediction or residual life prediction of structures or machines is one of the most strongly world wide needed problems as requirement in the stage of slowly developing economy which comes after rapidly and highly developing stage. For the purpose of statistical life prediction, fatigue test was conducted under the 3 stress levels, and for each stress level, 20 specimens are used. The statistical properties of the crack growth parameter m and C in the fatigue crack growth law of da/dN = C(ΔK) m , and the relationship between m and C, and the statistical distribution pattern of fatigue crack initiation, growth and fracture lives can be obtained by experimental results

Star formation in mergers with comologically motivated initial conditions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Karman, Wouter; Macciò, Andrea V.; Kannan, Rahul; Moster, Benjamin P.; Somerville, Rachel S.

2015-01-01

We use semi-analytic models and cosmological merger trees to provide the initial conditions for multimerger numerical hydrodynamic simulations, and exploit these simulations to explore the effect of galaxy interaction and merging on star formation (SF). We compute numerical realizations of 12 merger

Elliptic flow from non-equilibrium initial condition with a saturation scale

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ruggieri, M.; Scardina, F.; Plumari, S.; Greco, V.

2013-01-01

A current goal of relativistic heavy-ion collisions experiments is the search for a Color Glass Condensate (CGC) as the limiting state of QCD matter at very high density. In viscous hydrodynamics simulations, a standard Glauber initial condition leads to estimate 4πη/s∼1, while employing the Kharzeev–Levin–Nardi (KLN) modeling of the glasma leads to at least a factor of 2 larger η/s. Within a kinetic theory approach based on a relativistic Boltzmann-like transport simulation, our main result is that the out-of-equilibrium initial distribution reduces the efficiency in building-up the elliptic flow. At RHIC energy we find the available data on v 2 are in agreement with a 4πη/s∼1 also for KLN initial conditions. More generally, our study shows that the initial non-equilibrium in p-space can have a significant impact on the build-up of anisotropic flow

Predicting 2D target velocity cannot help 2D motion integration for smooth pursuit initiation.

Science.gov (United States)

Montagnini, Anna; Spering, Miriam; Masson, Guillaume S

2006-12-01

Smooth pursuit eye movements reflect the temporal dynamics of bidimensional (2D) visual motion integration. When tracking a single, tilted line, initial pursuit direction is biased toward unidimensional (1D) edge motion signals, which are orthogonal to the line orientation. Over 200 ms, tracking direction is slowly corrected to finally match the 2D object motion during steady-state pursuit. We now show that repetition of line orientation and/or motion direction does not eliminate the transient tracking direction error nor change the time course of pursuit correction. Nonetheless, multiple successive presentations of a single orientation/direction condition elicit robust anticipatory pursuit eye movements that always go in the 2D object motion direction not the 1D edge motion direction. These results demonstrate that predictive signals about target motion cannot be used for an efficient integration of ambiguous velocity signals at pursuit initiation.

Weaknesses in executive functioning predict the initiating of adolescents' alcohol use.

Science.gov (United States)

Peeters, Margot; Janssen, Tim; Monshouwer, Karin; Boendermaker, Wouter; Pronk, Thomas; Wiers, Reinout; Vollebergh, Wilma

2015-12-01

Recently, it has been suggested that impairments in executive functioning might be risk factors for the onset of alcohol use rather than a result of heavy alcohol use. In the present study, we examined whether two aspects of executive functioning, working memory and response inhibition, predicted the first alcoholic drink and first binge drinking episode in young adolescents using discrete survival analyses. Adolescents were selected from several Dutch secondary schools including both mainstream and special education (externalizing behavioral problems). Participants were 534 adolescents between 12 and 14 years at baseline. Executive functioning and alcohol use were assessed four times over a period of two years. Working memory uniquely predicted the onset of first drink (p=.01) and first binge drinking episode (p=.04) while response inhibition only uniquely predicted the initiating of the first drink (p=.01). These results suggest that the association of executive functioning and alcohol consumption found in former studies cannot simply be interpreted as an effect of alcohol consumption, as weaknesses in executive functioning, found in alcohol naïve adolescents, predict the initiating of (binge) drinking. Though, prolonged and heavy alcohol use might further weaken already existing deficiencies. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Quantification of discreteness effects in cosmological N-body simulations: Initial conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Joyce, M.; Marcos, B.

2007-01-01

The relation between the results of cosmological N-body simulations, and the continuum theoretical models they simulate, is currently not understood in a way which allows a quantification of N dependent effects. In this first of a series of papers on this issue, we consider the quantification of such effects in the initial conditions of such simulations. A general formalism developed in [A. Gabrielli, Phys. Rev. E 70, 066131 (2004).] allows us to write down an exact expression for the power spectrum of the point distributions generated by the standard algorithm for generating such initial conditions. Expanded perturbatively in the amplitude of the input (i.e. theoretical, continuum) power spectrum, we obtain at linear order the input power spectrum, plus two terms which arise from discreteness and contribute at large wave numbers. For cosmological type power spectra, one obtains as expected, the input spectrum for wave numbers k smaller than that characteristic of the discreteness. The comparison of real space correlation properties is more subtle because the discreteness corrections are not as strongly localized in real space. For cosmological type spectra the theoretical mass variance in spheres and two-point correlation function are well approximated above a finite distance. For typical initial amplitudes this distance is a few times the interparticle distance, but it diverges as this amplitude (or, equivalently, the initial redshift of the cosmological simulation) goes to zero, at fixed particle density. We discuss briefly the physical significance of these discreteness terms in the initial conditions, in particular, with respect to the definition of the continuum limit of N-body simulations

Persistence of Initial Conditions in Continental Scale Air Quality Simulations

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — This dataset contains the data used in Figures 1 – 6 and Table 2 of the technical note "Persistence of Initial Conditions in Continental Scale Air Quality...

Optimal control of distributed parameter system with incomplete information about the initial condition

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kotarski, W.; Kowalewski, A.

1982-03-01

In this paper we consider an optimal control problem for a system described by a linear partial differential equation of the parabolic type with Dirichlet's boundary condition. We impose some constraints on the control. The performance functional has the integral form. The control time T is fixed. The initial condition is not given by a known function but belongs to a certain set (incomplete information about the initial state). The problem formulated in this paper describes the process of optimal heating, of which we do not have exact information about the initial temperature on the heated object. We present an example in which the set of admissible controls and one of initial conditions are given by means of the norm constraints too. The application of the well-known projective gradient method in the Hilbert space allows us to obtain the numerical solution for our optimization problem. (author)

Predictive and prognostic properties of TB-LAM among HIV-positive patients initiating ART in Johannesburg, South Africa.

Science.gov (United States)

d'Elia, Alexander; Evans, Denise; McNamara, Lynne; Berhanu, Rebecca; Sanne, Ian; Lönnermark, Elisabet

2015-01-01

While the diagnostic properties of the TB LAM urine assay (LAM) have been well-described, little is known about its predictive and prognostic properties at ART initiation in a routine clinic setting. We describe the predictive and prognostic properties of LAM in HIV-positive patients initiating ART at an urban hospital in Johannesburg, South Africa. Retrospective study of HIV-positive adults (>18 years) who initiated standard first-line ART between February 2012 and April 2013 and had a LAM test at initiation. In HIV-positive patients with no known TB at ART initiation, we assessed the sensitivity, specificity and positive/negative likelihood ratios of LAM to predict incident TB within 6 months of ART initiation. In addition, in patients with a TB diagnosis and on TB treatment ART initiation, we measured the CD4 response at 6 months on ART. Of the 274 patients without TB at ART initiation, 65% were female with median CD4 count of 213 cells/mm(3). Among the 14 (5.1%) patients who developed active TB, none were urine LAM +ve at baseline. LAM had poor sensitivity (0.0% 95% CI 0.00-23.2) to predict incident TB within 6 months of initiation. We analyzed 22 patients with a confirmed TB diagnosis at initiation separately. Of these, LAM +ve patients (27%) showed lower CD4 gains compared to LAM negative patients (median increase 103 vs 199 cells/mm(3); p = 0.08). LAM has limited value for accurately predicting incident TB in patients with higher CD4 counts after ART initiation. LAM may help identify TB/HIV co-infected patients at ART initiation who respond more slowly to treatment and require targeted interventions to improve treatment outcomes. Larger studies with longer patient follow-up are needed.

Assessing predictability of a hydrological stochastic-dynamical system

Science.gov (United States)

Gelfan, Alexander

2014-05-01

The water cycle includes the processes with different memory that creates potential for predictability of hydrological system based on separating its long and short memory components and conditioning long-term prediction on slower evolving components (similar to approaches in climate prediction). In the face of the Panta Rhei IAHS Decade questions, it is important to find a conceptual approach to classify hydrological system components with respect to their predictability, define predictable/unpredictable patterns, extend lead-time and improve reliability of hydrological predictions based on the predictable patterns. Representation of hydrological systems as the dynamical systems subjected to the effect of noise (stochastic-dynamical systems) provides possible tool for such conceptualization. A method has been proposed for assessing predictability of hydrological system caused by its sensitivity to both initial and boundary conditions. The predictability is defined through a procedure of convergence of pre-assigned probabilistic measure (e.g. variance) of the system state to stable value. The time interval of the convergence, that is the time interval during which the system losses memory about its initial state, defines limit of the system predictability. The proposed method was applied to assess predictability of soil moisture dynamics in the Nizhnedevitskaya experimental station (51.516N; 38.383E) located in the agricultural zone of the central European Russia. A stochastic-dynamical model combining a deterministic one-dimensional model of hydrothermal regime of soil with a stochastic model of meteorological inputs was developed. The deterministic model describes processes of coupled heat and moisture transfer through unfrozen/frozen soil and accounts for the influence of phase changes on water flow. The stochastic model produces time series of daily meteorological variables (precipitation, air temperature and humidity), whose statistical properties are similar

The shear-free condition and constant-mean-curvature hyperboloidal initial data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Allen, Paul T; Allen, Iva Stavrov; Isenberg, James; Lee, John M

2016-01-01

We consider the Einstein–Maxwell-fluid constraint equations, and make use of the conformal method to construct and parametrize constant-mean-curvature hyperboloidal initial data sets that satisfy the shear-free condition. This condition is known to be necessary in order that a spacetime development admit a regular conformal boundary at future null infinity; see (Andersson and Chruściel 1994 Commun. Math. Phys. 161 533–68). We work with initial data sets in a variety of regularity classes, primarily considering those data sets whose geometries are weakly asymptotically hyperbolic , as defined in (Allen et al 2015 arXiv:1506.03399). These metrics are C 1,1 conformally compact, but not necessarily C 2 conformally compact. In order to ensure that the data sets we construct are indeed shear-free, we make use of the conformally covariant traceless Hessian introduced in (Allen et al 2015 arXiv:1506.03399). We furthermore construct a class of initial data sets with weakly asymptotically hyerbolic metrics that may be only C 0,1 conformally compact; these data sets are insufficiently regular to make sense of the shear-free condition. (paper)

Decadal climate prediction (project GCEP).

Science.gov (United States)

Haines, Keith; Hermanson, Leon; Liu, Chunlei; Putt, Debbie; Sutton, Rowan; Iwi, Alan; Smith, Doug

2009-03-13

Decadal prediction uses climate models forced by changing greenhouse gases, as in the International Panel for Climate Change, but unlike longer range predictions they also require initialization with observations of the current climate. In particular, the upper-ocean heat content and circulation have a critical influence. Decadal prediction is still in its infancy and there is an urgent need to understand the important processes that determine predictability on these timescales. We have taken the first Hadley Centre Decadal Prediction System (DePreSys) and implemented it on several NERC institute compute clusters in order to study a wider range of initial condition impacts on decadal forecasting, eventually including the state of the land and cryosphere. The eScience methods are used to manage submission and output from the many ensemble model runs required to assess predictive skill. Early results suggest initial condition skill may extend for several years, even over land areas, but this depends sensitively on the definition used to measure skill, and alternatives are presented. The Grid for Coupled Ensemble Prediction (GCEP) system will allow the UK academic community to contribute to international experiments being planned to explore decadal climate predictability.

Prediction of critical heat flux by a new local condition hypothesis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Im, J. H.; Jun, K. D.; Sim, J. W.; Deng, Zhijian

1998-01-01

Critical Heat Flux(CHF) was predicted for uniformly heated vertical round tube by a new local condition hypothesis which incorporates a local true steam quality. This model successfully overcame the difficulties in predicted the subcooled and quality CHF by the thermodynamic equilibrium quality. The local true steam quality is a dependent variable of the thermodynamic equilibrium quality at the exit and the quality at the Onset of Significant Vaporization(OSV). The exit thermodynamic equilibrium quality was obtained from the heat balance, and the quality at OSV was obtained from the Saha-Zuber correlation. In the past CHF has been predicted by the experimental correlation based on local or non-local condition hypothesis. This preliminary study showed that all the available world data on uniform CHF could be predicted by the model based on the local condition hypothesis

Serum albumin level predicts initial intravenous immunoglobulin treatment failure in Kawasaki disease.

Science.gov (United States)

Kuo, Ho-Chang; Liang, Chi-Di; Wang, Chih-Lu; Yu, Hong-Ren; Hwang, Kao-Pin; Yang, Kuender D

2010-10-01

Kawasaki disease (KD) is a systemic vasculitis primarily affecting children who are initial IVIG treatment. This study was conducted to investigate the risk factors for initial IVIG treatment failure in KD. Children who met KD diagnosis criteria and were admitted for IVIG treatment were retrospectively enrolled for analysis. Patients were divided into IVIG-responsive and IVIG-resistant groups. Initial laboratory data before IVIG treatment were collected for analysis. A total of 131 patients were enrolled during the study period. At 48 h after completion of initial IVIG treatment, 20 patients (15.3%) had an elevated body temperature. Univariate analysis showed that patients who had initial findings of high neutrophil count, abnormal liver function, low serum albumin level (≤2.9 g/dL) and pericardial effusion were at risk for IVIG treatment failure. Multivariate analysis with a logistic regression procedure showed that serum albumin level was considered the independent predicting factor of IVIG resistance in patients with KD (p = 0.006, OR = 40, 95% CI: 52.8-562). There was no significant correlation between age, gender, fever duration before IVIG treatment, haemoglobin level, total leucocyte and platelet counts, C-reactive protein level, or sterile pyuria and initial IVIG treatment failure. The specificity and sensitivity for prediction of IVIG treatment failure in this study were 96% and 34%, respectively. Pre-IVIG treatment serum albumin levels are a useful predictor of IVIG resistance in patients with KD. © 2010 The Author(s)/Journal Compilation © 2010 Foundation Acta Paediatrica.

Literature-based condition-specific miRNA-mRNA target prediction.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Minsik Oh

Full Text Available miRNAs are small non-coding RNAs that regulate gene expression by binding to the 3'-UTR of genes. Many recent studies have reported that miRNAs play important biological roles by regulating specific mRNAs or genes. Many sequence-based target prediction algorithms have been developed to predict miRNA targets. However, these methods are not designed for condition-specific target predictions and produce many false positives; thus, expression-based target prediction algorithms have been developed for condition-specific target predictions. A typical strategy to utilize expression data is to leverage the negative control roles of miRNAs on genes. To control false positives, a stringent cutoff value is typically set, but in this case, these methods tend to reject many true target relationships, i.e., false negatives. To overcome these limitations, additional information should be utilized. The literature is probably the best resource that we can utilize. Recent literature mining systems compile millions of articles with experiments designed for specific biological questions, and the systems provide a function to search for specific information. To utilize the literature information, we used a literature mining system, BEST, that automatically extracts information from the literature in PubMed and that allows the user to perform searches of the literature with any English words. By integrating omics data analysis methods and BEST, we developed Context-MMIA, a miRNA-mRNA target prediction method that combines expression data analysis results and the literature information extracted based on the user-specified context. In the pathway enrichment analysis using genes included in the top 200 miRNA-targets, Context-MMIA outperformed the four existing target prediction methods that we tested. In another test on whether prediction methods can re-produce experimentally validated target relationships, Context-MMIA outperformed the four existing target prediction

Conditional stability in determination of initial data for stochastic parabolic equations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yuan, Ganghua

2017-01-01

In this paper, we solve two kinds of inverse problems in determination of the initial data for stochastic parabolic equations. One is determination of the initial data by lateral boundary observation on arbitrary portion of the boundary, the second one is determination of the initial data by internal observation in a subregion inside the domain. We obtain conditional stability for the two kinds of inverse problems. To prove the results, we estimate the initial data by a terminal observation near the initial time, then we estimate this terminal observation by lateral boundary observation on arbitrary portion of the boundary or internal observation in a subregion inside the domain. To achieve those goals, we derive several new Carleman estimates for stochastic parabolic equations in this paper. (paper)

Conditional stability in determination of initial data for stochastic parabolic equations

Science.gov (United States)

Yuan, Ganghua

2017-03-01

In this paper, we solve two kinds of inverse problems in determination of the initial data for stochastic parabolic equations. One is determination of the initial data by lateral boundary observation on arbitrary portion of the boundary, the second one is determination of the initial data by internal observation in a subregion inside the domain. We obtain conditional stability for the two kinds of inverse problems. To prove the results, we estimate the initial data by a terminal observation near the initial time, then we estimate this terminal observation by lateral boundary observation on arbitrary portion of the boundary or internal observation in a subregion inside the domain. To achieve those goals, we derive several new Carleman estimates for stochastic parabolic equations in this paper.

Adverse Condition and Critical Event Prediction in Cranfield Multiphase Flow Facility

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Egedorf, Søren; Shaker, Hamid Reza

2017-01-01

, or even to the environment. To cope with these, adverse condition and critical event prediction plays an important role. Adverse Condition and Critical Event Prediction Toolbox (ACCEPT) is a tool which has been recently developed by NASA to allow for a timely prediction of an adverse event, with low false...... alarm and missed detection rates. While ACCEPT has shown to be an effective tool in some applications, its performance has not yet been evaluated on practical well-known benchmark examples. In this paper, ACCEPT is used for adverse condition and critical event prediction in a multiphase flow facility....... Cranfield multiphase flow facility is known to be an interesting benchmark which has been used to evaluate different methods from statistical process monitoring. In order to allow for the data from the flow facility to be used in ACCEPT, methods such as Kernel Density Estimation (KDE), PCA-and CVA...

On the initial conditions for a universe with variable G and c

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gomide, F.M.; Uehara, M.

1978-01-01

Initial conditions are discussed for a closed universe with matter injection process and with time varying G and c. It is shown that the usual interpretation for the cosmic microwave background radiation can be accepted for this model universe, provided a certain initial condition is imposed on the Pryce-Hoyle field. The time varying c is responsible for two red-shift laws one for wave-length and the other for the frequency. If radiation temperature obeys the red-shift law for frequency, the primordial Planck spectrum can be reproduced along cosmic expansion [pt

3-D simulations to investigate initial condition effects on the growth of Rayleigh-Taylor mixing

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Andrews, Malcolm J [Los Alamos National Laboratory

2008-01-01

The effect of initial conditions on the growth rate of turbulent Rayleigh-Taylor (RT) mixing has been studied using carefully formulated numerical simulations. An integrated large-eddy simulation (ILES) that uses a finite-volume technique was employed to solve the three-dimensional incompressible Euler equations with numerical dissipation. The initial conditions were chosen to test the dependence of the RT growth parameters ({alpha}{sub b}, {alpha}{sub s}) on variations in (a) the spectral bandwidth, (b) the spectral shape, and (c) discrete banded spectra. Our findings support the notion that the overall growth of the RT mixing is strongly dependent on initial conditions. Variation in spectral shapes and bandwidths are found to have a complex effect of the late time development of the RT mixing layer, and raise the question of whether we can design RT transition and turbulence based on our choice of initial conditions. In addition, our results provide a useful database for the initialization and development of closures describing RT transition and turbulence.

Charging conditions research to increase the initial projected velocity at different initial charge temperatures

Science.gov (United States)

Ishchenko, Aleksandr; Burkin, Viktor; Kasimov, Vladimir; Samorokova, Nina; Zykova, Angelica; Diachkovskii, Alexei

2017-11-01

The problems of the defense industry occupy the most important place in the constantly developing modern world. The daily development of defense technology does not stop, nor do studies on internal ballistics. The scientists of the whole world are faced with the task of managing the main characteristics of a ballistic experiment. The main characteristics of the ballistic experiment are the maximum pressure in the combustion chamber Pmax and the projected velocity at the time of barrel leaving UM. During the work the combustion law of the new high-energy fuel was determined in a ballistic experiment for different initial temperatures. This combustion law was used for a parametric study of depending Pmax and UM from a powder charge mass and a traveling charge was carried out. The optimal conditions for loading were obtained for improving the initial velocity at pressures up to 600 MPa for different initial temperatures. In this paper, one of the most promising schemes of throwing is considered, as well as a method for increasing the muzzle velocity of a projected element to 3317 m/s.

Evaluation of strength and failure of brittle rock containing initial cracks under lithospheric conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Xiaozhao; Qi, Chengzhi; Shao, Zhushan; Ma, Chao

2018-02-01

Natural brittle rock contains numerous randomly distributed microcracks. Crack initiation, growth, and coalescence play a predominant role in evaluation for the strength and failure of brittle rocks. A new analytical method is proposed to predict the strength and failure of brittle rocks containing initial microcracks. The formulation of this method is based on an improved wing crack model and a suggested micro-macro relation. In this improved wing crack model, the parameter of crack angle is especially introduced as a variable, and the analytical stress-crack relation considering crack angle effect is obtained. Coupling the proposed stress-crack relation and the suggested micro-macro relation describing the relation between crack growth and axial strain, the stress-strain constitutive relation is obtained to predict the rock strength and failure. Considering different initial microcrack sizes, friction coefficients and confining pressures, effects of crack angle on tensile wedge force acting on initial crack interface are studied, and effects of crack angle on stress-strain constitutive relation of rocks are also analyzed. The strength and crack initiation stress under different crack angles are discussed, and the value of most disadvantaged angle triggering crack initiation and rock failure is founded. The analytical results are similar to the published study results. Rationality of this proposed analytical method is verified.

Effects of initial conditions on self-similarity in a co-flowing axi-symmetric round jet

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Uddin, M.; Pollard, A.

2004-01-01

The effect of initial conditions of a spatially developing coflowing jet is investigated using an LES at Re D = 7,300. A co-flow velocity to initial jet centerline velocity ratio of 1:11 and a co-flow to initial jet diameter ratio of 35:1 are used to match the flow cases of Reference 11. The 35D x 135D simulation volume is divided into 1024 x 256 x 128 control volumes in the longitudinal, radial and azimuthal directions respectively. Time averaged results of the effect of initial conditions on mean flow, the decay of jet centreline velocity, growth of the jet and the distribution of Reynolds stresses in the near, and far field of the shear layer is presented. These quantities show good agreement with the measurements of Reference 11. Our results suggest that the first order moments, e.g., decay of centreline velocity excess, the radial mean velocity profiles, have little dependence on the initial conditions. As well, the Reynolds shear stress appears to have lesser sensitivity to the variation of initial velocity profiles. However, initial conditions have pronounced effect on the self-similarity of normal stresses. Additionally, the computations indicate little Reynolds number dependency, which is consistent with Townsend's school of thought. (author)

SCC of cold-worked austenitic stainless steels exposed to PWR primary water conditions: susceptibility to initiation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Herms, E.; Raquet, O.; Sejourne, L.; Vaillant, F.

2009-01-01

Heavily cold-worked austenitic stainless steels (AISI 304L and 316L types) could be significantly susceptible to Stress Corrosion Cracking (SCC) when exposed to PWR nominal primary water conditions even in absence of any pollutants. Susceptibility to SCC was shown to be related with some conditions such as initial hardness, procedure of cold-work or dynamic straining. A dedicated program devoted to better understand the initiation stage on CW austenitic stainless steels in PWR water is presented. Initiation is studied thanks to SCC test conditions leading to an intergranular cracking propagation mode on a CW austenitic stainless steel which is the mode generally reported after field experience. SCC tests are carried out in typical primary water conditions (composition 1000 ppm B and 2 ppm Li) and for temperature in the range 290 - 340 C. Material selected is 316L cold-worked essentially by rolling (reduction in thickness of 40%). Initiation tests are carried out under various stress levels with the aim to investigate the evolution of the initiation period versus the value of applied stress. SCC tests are performed on cylindrical notched specimens in order to increase the applied stress and allow accelerated testing without modify the exposure conditions to strictly nominal hydrogenated PWR water. Respective influences of cyclic/dynamic conditions on SCC initiation are presented and discussed. Dedicated interrupted tests help to investigate the behaviour of the crack initiation process. These SCC tests have shown that crack initiation could be obtained after a very short time under dynamic loading conditions on heavily pre-strained austenitic stainless steels. Actual results show that the most limiting stage of the cracking process on CW 316L seems to be the transition from slow transgranular propagation of surface initiated cracks to intergranular fast propagation through the thickness of the sample. The duration of this stage during crack initiation tests is

Accurate initial conditions in mixed Dark Matter--Baryon simulations

CERN Document Server

Valkenburg, Wessel

2017-06-01

We quantify the error in the results of mixed baryon--dark-matter hydrodynamic simulations, stemming from outdated approximations for the generation of initial conditions. The error at redshift 0 in contemporary large simulations, is of the order of few to ten percent in the power spectra of baryons and dark matter, and their combined total-matter power spectrum. After describing how to properly assign initial displacements and peculiar velocities to multiple species, we review several approximations: (1) {using the total-matter power spectrum to compute displacements and peculiar velocities of both fluids}, (2) scaling the linear redshift-zero power spectrum back to the initial power spectrum using the Newtonian growth factor ignoring homogeneous radiation, (3) using longitudinal-gauge velocities with synchronous-gauge densities, and (4) ignoring the phase-difference in the Fourier modes for the offset baryon grid, relative to the dark-matter grid. Three of these approximations do not take into account that ...

Bayesian recovery of the initial condition for the heat equation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Knapik, B.T.; Vaart, van der A.W.; Zanten, van J.H.

2011-01-01

We study a Bayesian approach to recovering the initial condition for the heat equation from noisy observations of the solution at a later time. We consider a class of prior distributions indexed by a parameter quantifying "smoothness" and show that the corresponding posterior distributions contract

Constraints on rapidity-dependent initial conditions from charged-particle pseudorapidity densities and two-particle correlations

Science.gov (United States)

Ke, Weiyao; Moreland, J. Scott; Bernhard, Jonah E.; Bass, Steffen A.

2017-10-01

We study the initial three-dimensional spatial configuration of the quark-gluon plasma (QGP) produced in relativistic heavy-ion collisions using centrality and pseudorapidity-dependent measurements of the medium's charged particle density and two-particle correlations. A cumulant-generating function is first used to parametrize the rapidity dependence of local entropy deposition and extend arbitrary boost-invariant initial conditions to nonzero beam rapidities. The model is then compared to p +Pb and Pb + Pb charged-particle pseudorapidity densities and two-particle pseudorapidity correlations and systematically optimized using Bayesian parameter estimation to extract high-probability initial condition parameters. The optimized initial conditions are then compared to a number of experimental observables including the pseudorapidity-dependent anisotropic flows, event-plane decorrelations, and flow correlations. We find that the form of the initial local longitudinal entropy profile is well constrained by these experimental measurements.

Predicting the initial freezing point and water activity of meat products from composition data

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Sman, van der R.G.M.; Boer, E.P.J.

2005-01-01

In this paper we predict the water activity and initial freezing point of food products (meat and fish) based on their composition. The prediction is based on thermodynamics (the Clausius-Clapeyron equation, the Ross equation and an approximation of the Pitzer equation). Furthermore, we have taken

Initial uncertainty in Pavlovian reward prediction persistently elevates incentive salience and extends sign-tracking to normally unattractive cues.

Science.gov (United States)

Robinson, Mike J F; Anselme, Patrick; Fischer, Adam M; Berridge, Kent C

2014-06-01

Uncertainty is a component of many gambling games and may play a role in incentive motivation and cue attraction. Uncertainty can increase the attractiveness for predictors of reward in the Pavlovian procedure of autoshaping, visible as enhanced sign-tracking (or approach and nibbles) by rats of a metal lever whose sudden appearance acts as a conditioned stimulus (CS+) to predict sucrose pellets as an unconditioned stimulus (UCS). Here we examined how reward uncertainty might enhance incentive salience as sign-tracking both in intensity and by broadening the range of attractive CS+s. We also examined whether initially induced uncertainty enhancements of CS+ attraction can endure beyond uncertainty itself, and persist even when Pavlovian prediction becomes 100% certain. Our results show that uncertainty can broaden incentive salience attribution to make CS cues attractive that would otherwise not be (either because they are too distal from reward or too risky to normally attract sign-tracking). In addition, uncertainty enhancement of CS+ incentive salience, once induced by initial exposure, persisted even when Pavlovian CS-UCS correlations later rose toward 100% certainty in prediction. Persistence suggests an enduring incentive motivation enhancement potentially relevant to gambling, which in some ways resembles incentive-sensitization. Higher motivation to uncertain CS+s leads to more potent attraction to these cues when they predict the delivery of uncertain rewards. In humans, those cues might possibly include the sights and sounds associated with gambling, which contribute a major component of the play immersion experienced by problematic gamblers. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Height distribution tails in the Kardar-Parisi-Zhang equation with Brownian initial conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Meerson, Baruch; Schmidt, Johannes

2017-10-01

For stationary interface growth, governed by the Kardar-Parisi-Zhang (KPZ) equation in 1 + 1 dimensions, typical fluctuations of the interface height at long times are described by the Baik-Rains distribution. Recently Chhita et al (2016 arXiv:1611.06690) used the totally asymmetric simple exclusion process (TASEP) to study the height fluctuations in systems of the KPZ universality class for Brownian interfaces with arbitrary diffusion constant. They showed that there is a one-parameter family of long-time distributions, parameterized by the diffusion constant of the initial random height profile. They also computed these distributions numerically by using Monte Carlo (MC) simulations. Here we address this problem analytically and focus on the distribution tails at short times. We determine the (stretched exponential) tails of the height distribution by applying the optimal fluctuation method (OFM) to the KPZ equation. We argue that, by analogy with other initial conditions, the ‘slow’ tail holds at arbitrary times and therefore provides a proper asymptotic to the family of long-time distributions studied in Chhita et al (2016 arXiv:1611.06690). We verify this hypothesis by performing large-scale MC simulations of a TASEP with a parallel-update rule. The ‘fast’ tail, predicted by the OFM, is also expected to hold at arbitrary times, at sufficiently large heights.

Linear stochastic differential equations with anticipating initial conditions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Khalifa, Narjess; Kuo, Hui-Hsiung; Ouerdiane, Habib

In this paper we use the new stochastic integral introduced by Ayed and Kuo (2008) and the results obtained by Kuo et al. (2012b) to find a solution to a drift-free linear stochastic differential equation with anticipating initial condition. Our solution is based on well-known results from...... classical Itô theory and anticipative Itô formula results from Kue et al. (2012b). We also show that the solution obtained by our method is consistent with the solution obtained by the methods of Malliavin calculus, e.g. Buckdahn and Nualart (1994)....

Workshop on initiation of stress corrosion cracking under LWR conditions: Proceedings

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nelson, J.L.; Cubicciotti, D.; Licina, G.J.

1988-05-01

A workshop titled ''Initiation of Stress Corrosion Cracking under LWR Conditions'' was held in Palo Alto, California on November 13, 1986, hosted by the Electric Power Research Institute. Participants were experts on the topic from nuclear steam supply and component manufacturers, public and private research laboratories, and university environments. Presentations included discussions on the definition of crack initiation, the effects of environmental and electrochemical variables on cracking susceptibility, and detection methods for the determination of crack initiation events and measurement of critical environmental and stress parameters. Examination of the questions related to crack initiation and its relative importance to the overall question of cracking of LWR materials from these perspectives provided inputs to EPRI project managers on the future direction of research efforts designed to prevent and control cracking. Thirteen reports have been cataloged separately

Effects of Test Conditions on APA Rutting and Prediction Modeling for Asphalt Mixtures

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hui Wang

2017-01-01

Full Text Available APA rutting tests were conducted for six kinds of asphalt mixtures under air-dry and immersing conditions. The influences of test conditions, including load, temperature, air voids, and moisture, on APA rutting depth were analyzed by using grey correlation method, and the APA rutting depth prediction model was established. Results show that the modified asphalt mixtures have bigger rutting depth ratios of air-dry to immersing conditions, indicating that the modified asphalt mixtures have better antirutting properties and water stability than the matrix asphalt mixtures. The grey correlation degrees of temperature, load, air void, and immersing conditions on APA rutting depth decrease successively, which means that temperature is the most significant influencing factor. The proposed indoor APA rutting prediction model has good prediction accuracy, and the correlation coefficient between the predicted and the measured rutting depths is 96.3%.

Identification of spatially-localized initial conditions via sparse PCA

Science.gov (United States)

Dwivedi, Anubhav; Jovanovic, Mihailo

2017-11-01

Principal Component Analysis involves maximization of a quadratic form subject to a quadratic constraint on the initial flow perturbations and it is routinely used to identify the most energetic flow structures. For general flow configurations, principal components can be efficiently computed via power iteration of the forward and adjoint governing equations. However, the resulting flow structures typically have a large spatial support leading to a question of physical realizability. To obtain spatially-localized structures, we modify the quadratic constraint on the initial condition to include a convex combination with an additional regularization term which promotes sparsity in the physical domain. We formulate this constrained optimization problem as a nonlinear eigenvalue problem and employ an inverse power-iteration-based method to solve it. The resulting solution is guaranteed to converge to a nonlinear eigenvector which becomes increasingly localized as our emphasis on sparsity increases. We use several fluids examples to demonstrate that our method indeed identifies the most energetic initial perturbations that are spatially compact. This work was supported by Office of Naval Research through Grant Number N00014-15-1-2522.

Maximum run-up behavior of tsunamis under non-zero initial velocity condition

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Baran AYDIN

2018-03-01

Full Text Available The tsunami run-up problem is solved non-linearly under the most general initial conditions, that is, for realistic initial waveforms such as N-waves, as well as standard initial waveforms such as solitary waves, in the presence of initial velocity. An initial-boundary value problem governed by the non-linear shallow-water wave equations is solved analytically utilizing the classical separation of variables technique, which proved to be not only fast but also accurate analytical approach for this type of problems. The results provide important information on maximum tsunami run-up qualitatively. We observed that, although the calculated maximum run-ups increase significantly, going as high as double that of the zero-velocity case, initial waves having non-zero fluid velocity exhibit the same run-up behavior as waves without initial velocity, for all wave types considered in this study.

Effect of Initial Hydraulic Conditions on Capillary Rise in a Porous Medium: Pore-Network Modeling

KAUST Repository

Joekar-Niasar, V.

2012-01-01

The dynamics of capillary rise in a porous medium have been mostly studied in initially dry systems. As initial saturation and initial hydraulic conditions in many natural and industrial porous media can be variable, it is important to investigate the influence of initial conditions on the dynamics of the process. In this study, using dynamic pore-network modeling, we simulated capillary rise in a porous medium for different initial saturations (and consequently initial capillary pressures). Furthermore, the effect of hydraulic connectivity of the wetting phase in corners on the height and velocity of the wetting front was studied. Our simulation results show that there is a trade-off between capillary forces and trapping due to snap-off, which leads to a nonlinear dependence of wetting front velocity on initial saturation at the pore scale. This analysis may provide a possible answer to the experimental observations in the literature showing a non-monotonic dependency between initial saturation and the macroscopic front velocity. © Soil Science Society of America.

Abstract fractional integro-differential equations involving nonlocal initial conditions in α-norm

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wang Rong-Nian

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract In the present paper, we deal with the Cauchy problems of abstract fractional integro-differential equations involving nonlocal initial conditions in α-norm, where the operator A in the linear part is the generator of a compact analytic semigroup. New criterions, ensuring the existence of mild solutions, are established. The results are obtained by using the theory of operator families associated with the function of Wright type and the semigroup generated by A, Krasnoselkii's fixed point theorem and Schauder's fixed point theorem. An application to a fractional partial integro-differential equation with nonlocal initial condition is also considered. Mathematics subject classification (2000 26A33, 34G10, 34G20

THE ANALYSIS OF THE COMMODITY PRICE FORECASTING SUCCESS CONSIDERING DIFFERENT LENGTHS OF THE INITIAL CONDITION DRIFT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marcela Lascsáková

2015-09-01

Full Text Available In the paper the numerical model based on the exponential approximation of commodity stock exchanges was derived. The price prognoses of aluminium on the London Metal Exchange were determined as numerical solution of the Cauchy initial problem for the 1st order ordinary differential equation. To make the numerical model more accurate the idea of the modification of the initial condition value by the stock exchange was realized. By having analyzed the forecasting success of the chosen initial condition drift types, the initial condition drift providing the most accurate prognoses for the commodity price movements was determined. The suggested modification of the original model made the commodity price prognoses more accurate.

Optimization approach of background value and initial item for improving prediction precision of GM(1,1) model

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Yuhong Wang; Qin Liu; Jianrong Tang; Wenbin Cao; Xiaozhong Li

2014-01-01

A combination method of optimization of the back-ground value and optimization of the initial item is proposed. The sequences of the unbiased exponential distribution are simulated and predicted through the optimization of the background value in grey differential equations. The principle of the new information priority in the grey system theory and the rationality of the initial item in the original GM(1,1) model are ful y expressed through the improvement of the initial item in the proposed time response function. A numerical example is employed to il ustrate that the proposed method is able to simulate and predict sequences of raw data with the unbiased exponential distribution and has better simulation performance and prediction precision than the original GM(1,1) model relatively.

Body Condition Indices Predict Reproductive Success but Not Survival in a Sedentary, Tropical Bird.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Olga Milenkaya

Full Text Available Body condition may predict individual fitness because those in better condition have more resources to allocate towards improving their fitness. However, the hypothesis that condition indices are meaningful proxies for fitness has been questioned. Here, we ask if intraspecific variation in condition indices predicts annual reproductive success and survival. We monitored a population of Neochmia phaeton (crimson finch, a sedentary, tropical passerine, for reproductive success and survival over four breeding seasons, and sampled them for commonly used condition indices: mass adjusted for body size, muscle and fat scores, packed cell volume, hemoglobin concentration, total plasma protein, and heterophil to lymphocyte ratio. Our study population is well suited for this research because individuals forage in common areas and do not hold territories such that variation in condition between individuals is not confounded by differences in habitat quality. Furthermore, we controlled for factors that are known to impact condition indices in our study population (e.g., breeding stage such that we assessed individual condition relative to others in the same context. Condition indices that reflect energy reserves predicted both the probability of an individual fledging young and the number of young produced that survived to independence, but only during some years. Those that were relatively heavy for their body size produced about three times more independent young compared to light individuals. That energy reserves are a meaningful predictor of reproductive success in a sedentary passerine supports the idea that energy reserves are at least sometimes predictors of fitness. However, hematological indices failed to predict reproductive success and none of the indices predicted survival. Therefore, some but not all condition indices may be informative, but because we found that most indices did not predict any component of fitness, we question the ubiquitous

Body Condition Indices Predict Reproductive Success but Not Survival in a Sedentary, Tropical Bird.

Science.gov (United States)

Milenkaya, Olga; Catlin, Daniel H; Legge, Sarah; Walters, Jeffrey R

2015-01-01

Body condition may predict individual fitness because those in better condition have more resources to allocate towards improving their fitness. However, the hypothesis that condition indices are meaningful proxies for fitness has been questioned. Here, we ask if intraspecific variation in condition indices predicts annual reproductive success and survival. We monitored a population of Neochmia phaeton (crimson finch), a sedentary, tropical passerine, for reproductive success and survival over four breeding seasons, and sampled them for commonly used condition indices: mass adjusted for body size, muscle and fat scores, packed cell volume, hemoglobin concentration, total plasma protein, and heterophil to lymphocyte ratio. Our study population is well suited for this research because individuals forage in common areas and do not hold territories such that variation in condition between individuals is not confounded by differences in habitat quality. Furthermore, we controlled for factors that are known to impact condition indices in our study population (e.g., breeding stage) such that we assessed individual condition relative to others in the same context. Condition indices that reflect energy reserves predicted both the probability of an individual fledging young and the number of young produced that survived to independence, but only during some years. Those that were relatively heavy for their body size produced about three times more independent young compared to light individuals. That energy reserves are a meaningful predictor of reproductive success in a sedentary passerine supports the idea that energy reserves are at least sometimes predictors of fitness. However, hematological indices failed to predict reproductive success and none of the indices predicted survival. Therefore, some but not all condition indices may be informative, but because we found that most indices did not predict any component of fitness, we question the ubiquitous interpretation of

Predicting watershed acidification under alternate rainfall conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huntington, T.G.

1996-01-01

The effect of alternate rainfall scenarios on acidification of a forested watershed subjected to chronic acidic deposition was assessed using the model of acidification of groundwater in catchments (MAGIC). The model was calibrated at the Panola Mountain Research Watershed, near Atlanta, Georgia, USA using measured soil properties, wet and dry deposition, and modeled hydrologic routing. Model forecast simulations were evaluated to compare alternate temporal averaging of rainfall inputs and variations in rainfall amount and seasonal distribution. Soil water alkalinity was predicted to decrease to substantially lower concentrations under lower rainfall compared with current or higher rainfall conditions. Soil water alkalinity was also predicted to decrease to lower levels when the majority of rainfall occurred during the growing season compared with other rainfall distributions. Changes in rainfall distribution that result in decreases in net soil water flux will temporarily delay acidification. Ultimately, however, decreased soilwater flux will result in larger increases in soil-adsorbed sulfur and soil-water sulfate concentrations and decreases in alkalinity when compared to higher water flux conditions. Potential climate change resulting in significant changes in rainfall amounts, seasonal distributions of rainfall, or evapotranspiration will change net soil water flux and, consequently, will affect the dynamics of the acidification response to continued sulfate loading. 29 refs., 7 figs., 4 tabs

Methodology to predict the initiation of multiple transverse fractures from horizontal wellbores

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Crosby, D. G.; Yang, Z.; Rahman, S. S. [Univ. of New South Wales (Australia)

2001-10-01

The criterion based on Drucker and Prager which is designed to predict the pressure required to initiate secondary multiple transverse fractures in close proximity to primary fractures is discussed. Results based on this criterion compare favorably with those measured during a series of laboratory-scale hydraulic fracture interaction tests. It is concluded that the multiple fracture criterion and laboratory results demonstrate that transversely fractured horizontal wellbores have a limited capacity to resist the initiation of multiple fractures from adjacent perforations, or intersecting induced and natural fractures. 23 refs., 1 tab., 9 figs.

Predicting Comfort Temperature in Indonesia, an Initial Step to Reduce Cooling Energy Consumption

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tri Harso Karyono

2015-07-01

Full Text Available Indonesia has no reliable thermal comfort standard that is based on research works. The current national standard (SNI 6390:2011 states only a single range of comfort temperature that is 25.5 °C Ta, with a range of +1.5 °C Ta. Previous thermal studies in a number of different buildings in Indonesia showed that the neutral (comfort temperatures of subjects were about 27 to 28 °C, which is higher than the values stated in the standard. As a big country with various ambient temperatures, Indonesian needs a better and more reliable thermal comfort predictor which can be applied properly across the country. This study is an attempt to propose an initial Indonesian thermal predictor, in the form of a simple equation, which could predict comfort temperatures properly across the country. Reanalysing the previous comfort studies in Indonesia, a simple regression equation is constructed as to be used as the initial Indonesian comfort predictor. Using this predictor, the comfort temperatures in a lowland or coastal cities like Jakarta is found to be higher than the current comfort standard. It is expected that this predictor would help to provide a better indoor thermal environment and at the same reduce the cooling energy in air conditioning (AC building, thus reducing a building’s carbon emissions.

Effect of Initial Hydraulic Conditions on Capillary Rise in a Porous Medium: Pore-Network Modeling

KAUST Repository

Joekar-Niasar, V.; Hassanizadeh, S. M.

2012-01-01

The dynamics of capillary rise in a porous medium have been mostly studied in initially dry systems. As initial saturation and initial hydraulic conditions in many natural and industrial porous media can be variable, it is important to investigate

Temporal predictive mechanisms modulate motor reaction time during initiation and inhibition of speech and hand movement.

Science.gov (United States)

Johari, Karim; Behroozmand, Roozbeh

2017-08-01

Skilled movement is mediated by motor commands executed with extremely fine temporal precision. The question of how the brain incorporates temporal information to perform motor actions has remained unanswered. This study investigated the effect of stimulus temporal predictability on response timing of speech and hand movement. Subjects performed a randomized vowel vocalization or button press task in two counterbalanced blocks in response to temporally-predictable and unpredictable visual cues. Results indicated that speech and hand reaction time was decreased for predictable compared with unpredictable stimuli. This finding suggests that a temporal predictive code is established to capture temporal dynamics of sensory cues in order to produce faster movements in responses to predictable stimuli. In addition, results revealed a main effect of modality, indicating faster hand movement compared with speech. We suggest that this effect is accounted for by the inherent complexity of speech production compared with hand movement. Lastly, we found that movement inhibition was faster than initiation for both hand and speech, suggesting that movement initiation requires a longer processing time to coordinate activities across multiple regions in the brain. These findings provide new insights into the mechanisms of temporal information processing during initiation and inhibition of speech and hand movement. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Is Romantic Desire Predictable? Machine Learning Applied to Initial Romantic Attraction.

Science.gov (United States)

Joel, Samantha; Eastwick, Paul W; Finkel, Eli J

2017-10-01

Matchmaking companies and theoretical perspectives on close relationships suggest that initial attraction is, to some extent, a product of two people's self-reported traits and preferences. We used machine learning to test how well such measures predict people's overall tendencies to romantically desire other people (actor variance) and to be desired by other people (partner variance), as well as people's desire for specific partners above and beyond actor and partner variance (relationship variance). In two speed-dating studies, romantically unattached individuals completed more than 100 self-report measures about traits and preferences that past researchers have identified as being relevant to mate selection. Each participant met each opposite-sex participant attending a speed-dating event for a 4-min speed date. Random forests models predicted 4% to 18% of actor variance and 7% to 27% of partner variance; crucially, however, they were unable to predict relationship variance using any combination of traits and preferences reported before the dates. These results suggest that compatibility elements of human mating are challenging to predict before two people meet.

Tectonic predictions with mantle convection models

Science.gov (United States)

Coltice, Nicolas; Shephard, Grace E.

2018-04-01

Over the past 15 yr, numerical models of convection in Earth's mantle have made a leap forward: they can now produce self-consistent plate-like behaviour at the surface together with deep mantle circulation. These digital tools provide a new window into the intimate connections between plate tectonics and mantle dynamics, and can therefore be used for tectonic predictions, in principle. This contribution explores this assumption. First, initial conditions at 30, 20, 10 and 0 Ma are generated by driving a convective flow with imposed plate velocities at the surface. We then compute instantaneous mantle flows in response to the guessed temperature fields without imposing any boundary conditions. Plate boundaries self-consistently emerge at correct locations with respect to reconstructions, except for small plates close to subduction zones. As already observed for other types of instantaneous flow calculations, the structure of the top boundary layer and upper-mantle slab is the dominant character that leads to accurate predictions of surface velocities. Perturbations of the rheological parameters have little impact on the resulting surface velocities. We then compute fully dynamic model evolution from 30 and 10 to 0 Ma, without imposing plate boundaries or plate velocities. Contrary to instantaneous calculations, errors in kinematic predictions are substantial, although the plate layout and kinematics in several areas remain consistent with the expectations for the Earth. For these calculations, varying the rheological parameters makes a difference for plate boundary evolution. Also, identified errors in initial conditions contribute to first-order kinematic errors. This experiment shows that the tectonic predictions of dynamic models over 10 My are highly sensitive to uncertainties of rheological parameters and initial temperature field in comparison to instantaneous flow calculations. Indeed, the initial conditions and the rheological parameters can be good enough

Correlated initial condition for an embedded process by time partitioning

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Velický, Bedřich; Kalvová, Anděla; Špička, Václav

2010-01-01

Roč. 81, č. 23 (2010), 235116/1-235116/12 ISSN 1098-0121 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA202/08/0361 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10100520; CEZ:AV0Z10100521 Keywords : non-equilibrium * Initial conditions * decay of correlations * Green's functions * quantum transport equations Subject RIV: BM - Solid Matter Physics ; Magnetism Impact factor: 3.772, year: 2010

Robust Initial Wetness Condition Framework of an Event-Based Rainfall–Runoff Model Using Remotely Sensed Soil Moisture

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wooyeon Sunwoo

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Runoff prediction in limited-data areas is vital for hydrological applications, such as the design of infrastructure and flood defenses, runoff forecasting, and water management. Rainfall–runoff models may be useful for simulation of runoff generation, particularly event-based models, which offer a practical modeling scheme because of their simplicity. However, there is a need to reduce the uncertainties related to the estimation of the initial wetness condition (IWC prior to a rainfall event. Soil moisture is one of the most important variables in rainfall–runoff modeling, and remotely sensed soil moisture is recognized as an effective way to improve the accuracy of runoff prediction. In this study, the IWC was evaluated based on remotely sensed soil moisture by using the Soil Conservation Service-Curve Number (SCS-CN method, which is one of the representative event-based models used for reducing the uncertainty of runoff prediction. Four proxy variables for the IWC were determined from the measurements of total rainfall depth (API5, ground-based soil moisture (SSMinsitu, remotely sensed surface soil moisture (SSM, and soil water index (SWI provided by the advanced scatterometer (ASCAT. To obtain a robust IWC framework, this study consists of two main parts: the validation of remotely sensed soil moisture, and the evaluation of runoff prediction using four proxy variables with a set of rainfall–runoff events in the East Asian monsoon region. The results showed an acceptable agreement between remotely sensed soil moisture (SSM and SWI and ground based soil moisture data (SSMinsitu. In the proxy variable analysis, the SWI indicated the optimal value among the proposed proxy variables. In the runoff prediction analysis considering various infiltration conditions, the SSM and SWI proxy variables significantly reduced the runoff prediction error as compared with API5 by 60% and 66%, respectively. Moreover, the proposed IWC framework with

Predictive Uncertainty Estimation in Water Demand Forecasting Using the Model Conditional Processor

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Amos O. Anele

2018-04-01

Full Text Available In a previous paper, a number of potential models for short-term water demand (STWD prediction have been analysed to find the ones with the best fit. The results obtained in Anele et al. (2017 showed that hybrid models may be considered as the accurate and appropriate forecasting models for STWD prediction. However, such best single valued forecast does not guarantee reliable and robust decisions, which can be properly obtained via model uncertainty processors (MUPs. MUPs provide an estimate of the full predictive densities and not only the single valued expected prediction. Amongst other MUPs, the purpose of this paper is to use the multi-variate version of the model conditional processor (MCP, proposed by Todini (2008, to demonstrate how the estimation of the predictive probability conditional to a number of relatively good predictive models may improve our knowledge, thus reducing the predictive uncertainty (PU when forecasting into the unknown future. Through the MCP approach, the probability distribution of the future water demand can be assessed depending on the forecast provided by one or more deterministic forecasting models. Based on an average weekly data of 168 h, the probability density of the future demand is built conditional on three models’ predictions, namely the autoregressive-moving average (ARMA, feed-forward back propagation neural network (FFBP-NN and hybrid model (i.e., combined forecast from ARMA and FFBP-NN. The results obtained show that MCP may be effectively used for real-time STWD prediction since it brings out the PU connected to its forecast, and such information could help water utilities estimate the risk connected to a decision.

Predicting Age of Sexual Initiation: Family-Level Antecedents in Three Ethnic Groups

Science.gov (United States)

Moilanen, Kristin L.; Leary, Janie M.; Watson, S. Michelle; Ottley, Jason

2018-01-01

We investigated how family characteristics and experiences during early adolescence predicted timing of sexual initiation. In addition, we investigated adolescent sex and race/ethnicity as potential moderating factors. As part of the Children of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth-1979 (CNLSY-79), 799 adolescents aged 12 to 15 years provided…

Curvature profiles as initial conditions for primordial black hole formation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Polnarev, Alexander G; Musco, Ilia

2007-01-01

This work is part of an ongoing research programme to study possible primordial black hole (PBH) formation during the radiation-dominated era of the early universe. Working within spherical symmetry, we specify an initial configuration in terms of a curvature profile, which represents initial conditions for the large amplitude metric perturbations, away from the homogeneous Friedmann-Robertson-Walker model, which are required for PBH formation. Using an asymptotic quasi-homogeneous solution, we relate the curvature profile with the density and velocity fields, which at an early enough time, when the length scale of the configuration is much larger than the cosmological horizon, can be treated as small perturbations of the background values. We present general analytic solutions for the density and velocity profiles. These solutions enable us to consider in a self-consistent way the formation of PBHs in a wide variety of cosmological situations with the cosmological fluid being treated as an arbitrary mixture of different components with different equations of state. We obtain the analytical solutions for the density and velocity profiles as functions of the initial time. We then use two different parametrizations for the curvature profile and follow numerically the evolution of initial configurations

Predicting initial client engagement with community mental health services by routinely measured data

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Roeg, D.P.K.; van de Goor, L.A.M.; Garretsen, H.F.L.

2015-01-01

Engagement is a determinant of how well a person will respond to professional input. This study investigates whether, in practice, routinely measured data predict initial client engagement with community mental health services. Engagement, problem severity, client characteristics, and duration

Body Condition Indices Predict Reproductive Success but Not Survival in a Sedentary, Tropical Bird

OpenAIRE

Milenkaya, Olga; Catlin, Daniel H.; Legge, Sarah; Walters, Jeffrey R.

2015-01-01

Body condition may predict individual fitness because those in better condition have more resources to allocate towards improving their fitness. However, the hypothesis that condition indices are meaningful proxies for fitness has been questioned. Here, we ask if intraspecific variation in condition indices predicts annual reproductive success and survival. We monitored a population of Neochmia phaeton (crimson finch), a sedentary, tropical passerine, for reproductive success and survival ove...

Model predictions and control of conditions in a CA-reefer container

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Sman, van der R.G.M.; Verdijck, G.J.C.

2003-01-01

In this paper a concept for energy saving for refrigerated container transport is presented. The concept is based on model-predictive control of the set points of the cooling unit. These models predict energy consumption of the cooling unit, climatic conditions inside the cargo space, and the change

Effect of initial conditions and Mach number on the Richtmyer-Meshkov instability in ICF like conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Rao, Pooja; She, Dan; Lim, Hyunkyung; Glimm, James

2015-11-01

The qualitative and quantitative effect of initial conditions (linear and non-linear) and high Mach number (1.3 and 1.45) is studied on the turbulent mixing induced by the Richtmyer-Meshkov instability in idealized ICF conditions. The Richtmyer-Meshkov instability seeds Rayleigh-taylor instabilities in ICF experiments and is one of the factors that contributes to reduced performance of ICF experiments. Its also found in collapsing cores of stars and supersonic combustion. We use the Stony Brook University code, FronTier, which is verified via a code comparison study against the AMR multiphysics code FLASH, and validated against vertical shock tube experiments done by the LANL Extreme Fluids Team. These simulations are designed as a step towards simulating more realistic ICF conditions and quantifying the detrimental effects of mixing on the yield.

Seasonal Drought Prediction: Advances, Challenges, and Future Prospects

Science.gov (United States)

Hao, Zengchao; Singh, Vijay P.; Xia, Youlong

2018-03-01

Drought prediction is of critical importance to early warning for drought managements. This review provides a synthesis of drought prediction based on statistical, dynamical, and hybrid methods. Statistical drought prediction is achieved by modeling the relationship between drought indices of interest and a suite of potential predictors, including large-scale climate indices, local climate variables, and land initial conditions. Dynamical meteorological drought prediction relies on seasonal climate forecast from general circulation models (GCMs), which can be employed to drive hydrological models for agricultural and hydrological drought prediction with the predictability determined by both climate forcings and initial conditions. Challenges still exist in drought prediction at long lead time and under a changing environment resulting from natural and anthropogenic factors. Future research prospects to improve drought prediction include, but are not limited to, high-quality data assimilation, improved model development with key processes related to drought occurrence, optimal ensemble forecast to select or weight ensembles, and hybrid drought prediction to merge statistical and dynamical forecasts.

Corrosion fatigue initiation and short crack growth behaviour of austenitic stainless steels under light water reactor conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Seifert, H.P.; Ritter, S.; Leber, H.J.

2012-01-01

Highlights: ► Corrosion fatigue in austenitic stainless steels under light water reactor conditions. ► Identification of major parameters of influence on initiation and short crack growth. ► Critical system conditions for environmental reduction of fatigue initiation life. ► Comparison with the environmental factor (F env ) approach. - Abstract: The corrosion fatigue initiation and short crack growth behaviour of different wrought low-carbon and stabilised austenitic stainless steels was characterised under simulated boiling water reactor and pressurised water reactor primary water conditions by cyclic fatigue tests with sharply notched fracture mechanics specimens. The special emphasis was placed to the behaviour at low corrosion potentials and, in particular, to hydrogen water chemistry conditions. The major parameter effects and critical conjoint threshold conditions, which result in relevant environmental reduction and acceleration of fatigue initiation life and subsequent short crack growth, respectively, are discussed and summarised. The observed corrosion fatigue behaviour is compared with the fatigue evaluation procedures in codes and regulatory guidelines.

[Predictive methods versus clinical titration for the initiation of lithium therapy. A systematic review].

Science.gov (United States)

Geeraerts, I; Sienaert, P

2013-01-01

When lithium is administered, the clinician needs to know when the lithium in the patient’s blood has reached a therapeutic level. At the initiation of treatment the level is usually achieved gradually through the application of the titration method. In order to increase the efficacy of this procedure several methods for dosing lithium and for predicting lithium levels have been developed. To conduct a systematic review of the publications relating to the various methods for dosing lithium or predicting lithium levels at the initiation of therapy. We searched Medline systematically for articles published in English, French or Dutch between 1966 and April 2012 which described or studied a method for dosing lithium or for predicting the lithium level reached following a specific dosage. We screened the reference lists of relevant articles in order to locate additional papers. We found 38 lithium prediction methods, in addition to the clinical titration method. These methods can be divided into two categories: the ‘a priori’ methods and the ‘test-dose’ methods, the latter requiring the administration of a test dose of lithium. The lithium prediction methods generally achieve a therapeutic blood level faster than the clinical titration method, but none of the methods achieves convincing results. On the basis of our review, we propose that the titration method should be used as the standard method in clinical practice.

Influence of the initial conditions for the numerical simulation of two-phase slug flow

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pachas Napa, Alex A.; Morales, Rigoberto E.M.; Medina, Cesar D. Perea

2010-07-01

Multiphase flows in pipelines commonly show several patterns depending on the flow rate, geometry and physical properties of the phases. In oil production, the slug flow pattern is the most common among the others. This flow pattern is characterized by an intermittent succession in space and time of an aerated liquid slug and an elongated gas bubble with a liquid film. Slug flow is studied through the slug tracking model described as one-dimensional and Lagrangian frame referenced. In the model, the mass and the momentum balance equations are applied in control volumes constituted by the gas bubble and the liquid slug. Initial conditions must be determined, which need to reproduce the intermittence of the flow pattern. These initial conditions are given by a sequence of flow properties for each unit cell. Properties of the unit cell in initial conditions should reflect the intermittence, for which they can be analyzed in statistical terms. Therefore, statistical distributions should be obtained for the slug flow variables. Distributions are complemented with the mass balance and the bubble design model. The objective of the present work is to obtain initial conditions for the slug tracking model that reproduce a better adjustment of the fluctuating properties for different pipe inclinations (horizontal, vertical or inclined). The numerical results are compared with experimental data obtained by PFG/FEM/UNICAMP for air-water flow at 0 deg, 45 deg and 90 deg and good agreement is observed. (author)

Prediction of LOFT core fluid conditions during blowdown and refill

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Grush, W.H.; White, J.R.

1978-01-01

One of the primary objectives of the LOFT (Loss-of-Fluid Test) Program is to provide data required to evaluate and improve the analytical methods currently used to predict the LOCA (Loss-of-Coolant Accident) response of large pressurized water reactors. The purpose of the paper is to describe the computer modeling methods used in predicting the fluid conditions in the LOFT core during the blowdown and refill phases of a nuclear LOCE (Loss-of-Coolant Experiment). Prediction results for a LOFT nonnuclear isothermal LOCE are compared to the experimental data to illustrate the validity of the modeling choices

Should tsunami simulations include a nonzero initial horizontal velocity?

Science.gov (United States)

Lotto, Gabriel C.; Nava, Gabriel; Dunham, Eric M.

2017-08-01

Tsunami propagation in the open ocean is most commonly modeled by solving the shallow water wave equations. These equations require initial conditions on sea surface height and depth-averaged horizontal particle velocity or, equivalently, horizontal momentum. While most modelers assume that initial velocity is zero, Y.T. Song and collaborators have argued for nonzero initial velocity, claiming that horizontal displacement of a sloping seafloor imparts significant horizontal momentum to the ocean. They show examples in which this effect increases the resulting tsunami height by a factor of two or more relative to models in which initial velocity is zero. We test this claim with a "full-physics" integrated dynamic rupture and tsunami model that couples the elastic response of the Earth to the linearized acoustic-gravitational response of a compressible ocean with gravity; the model self-consistently accounts for seismic waves in the solid Earth, acoustic waves in the ocean, and tsunamis (with dispersion at short wavelengths). Full-physics simulations of subduction zone megathrust ruptures and tsunamis in geometries with a sloping seafloor confirm that substantial horizontal momentum is imparted to the ocean. However, almost all of that initial momentum is carried away by ocean acoustic waves, with negligible momentum imparted to the tsunami. We also compare tsunami propagation in each simulation to that predicted by an equivalent shallow water wave simulation with varying assumptions regarding initial velocity. We find that the initial horizontal velocity conditions proposed by Song and collaborators consistently overestimate the tsunami amplitude and predict an inconsistent wave profile. Finally, we determine tsunami initial conditions that are rigorously consistent with our full-physics simulations by isolating the tsunami waves from ocean acoustic and seismic waves at some final time, and backpropagating the tsunami waves to their initial state by solving the

An experimental seasonal hydrological forecasting system over the Yellow River basin - Part 1: Understanding the role of initial hydrological conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Yuan, Xing; Ma, Feng; Wang, Linying; Zheng, Ziyan; Ma, Zhuguo; Ye, Aizhong; Peng, Shaoming

2016-06-01

The hydrological cycle over the Yellow River has been altered by the climate change and human interventions greatly during past decades, with a decadal drying trend mixed with a large variation of seasonal hydrological extremes. To provide support for the adaptation to a changing environment, an experimental seasonal hydrological forecasting system is established over the Yellow River basin. The system draws from a legacy of a global hydrological forecasting system that is able to make use of real-time seasonal climate predictions from North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME) climate models through a statistical downscaling approach but with a higher resolution and a spatially disaggregated calibration procedure that is based on a newly compiled hydrological observation dataset with 5 decades of naturalized streamflow at 12 mainstream gauges and a newly released meteorological observation dataset including 324 meteorological stations over the Yellow River basin. While the evaluation of the NMME-based seasonal hydrological forecasting will be presented in a companion paper to explore the added values from climate forecast models, this paper investigates the role of initial hydrological conditions (ICs) by carrying out 6-month Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) and reverse ESP-type simulations for each calendar month during 1982-2010 with the hydrological models in the forecasting system, i.e., a large-scale land surface hydrological model and a global routing model that is regionalized over the Yellow River. In terms of streamflow predictability, the ICs outweigh the meteorological forcings up to 2-5 months during the cold and dry seasons, but the latter prevails over the former in the predictability after the first month during the warm and wet seasons. For the streamflow forecasts initialized at the end of the rainy season, the influence of ICs for lower reaches of the Yellow River can be 5 months longer than that for the upper reaches, while such a difference

Fractal analysis on a classical hard-wall billiard with openings using a two-dimensional set of initial conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ree, Suhan

2003-01-01

Fractal analysis is performed to measure the chaoticity of a classical hard-wall billiard with openings. We use the circular billiard with a straight cut with two openings, and a two-dimensional (2D) set of initial conditions that produce all possible trajectories of a particle injected from one opening. We numerically compute the fractal dimension of singular points of the function that maps an initial condition to the number of collisions with the wall before the exit, using the box-counting algorithm that uses uniformly distributed points inside the 2D set of initial conditions. Finally, the classical chaotic properties are observed while the parameters of the billiard are varied, and the results are compared with those with the one-dimensional set of initial conditions

Effect of mixing rule boundary conditions on high pressure (liquid + liquid) equilibrium prediction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hsieh, Min-Kang; Lin, Shiang-Tai

2012-01-01

Highlights: ► Prediction of LLE from the combined use of EOS and liquid model are examined. ► The mixing rule used affects the predicted pressure dependence of LLE. ► MHV1 mixing rule predicts decent LLE at low pressures. ► WS mixing rule predicts more accurate excess volume and LLE at high pressures. ► The hybrid of MHV1 and WS mixing rule gives overall the best predictions. - Abstract: We examine the prediction of high pressure (liquid + liquid) equilibrium (LLE) from the Peng–Robinson equation with three excess Gibbs free energy (G ex )-based mixing rules (MR): the first order modified Huron–Vidal (MHV1), the Wong–Sandler (WS), and a hybrid of these two (referred to as G ex B 2 ). These mixing rules differ by the boundary conditions used for determination of the temperature and composition dependence of parameters a and b in the PR EOS. The condition of matching the excess Gibbs free energy from the EOS at zero pressure to that from the G ex model, used in MHV1 and G ex B 2 MR, leads to a similar miscibility gap from PR EOS and the G ex model used. On the other hand, the condition of matching excess Helmholtz energy from the EOS at infinite pressure to that from the G ex model, used in the WS MR, shows remarkable deviations. The condition of quadratic composition dependence in the second virial coefficient (B 2 ), used in WS and G ex B 2 MR, allows for both positive and negative values in the molar excess volume. Depending on the mixture, either the increase or decrease of the miscibility gap with pressure can be observed when the WS or the G ex B 2 MR is used. The condition of linear combination of molecular sizes of each component used in the MHV1 MR, however, often leads to small, positive molar excess volumes. As a consequence, the predicted LLE from using the MHV1 MR are insensitive to pressure. Therefore, we find that the G ex B 2 mixing rule provides the best predictive power for the LLE over a wide range of temperature and pressure.

Anomalous transport in cellular flows: The role of initial conditions and aging

Science.gov (United States)

Pöschke, Patrick; Sokolov, Igor M.; Nepomnyashchy, Alexander A.; Zaks, Michael A.

2016-09-01

We consider the diffusion-advection problem in two simple cellular flow models (often invoked as examples of subdiffusive tracer motion) and concentrate on the intermediate time range, in which the tracer motion indeed may show subdiffusion. We perform extensive numerical simulations of the systems under different initial conditions and show that the pure intermediate-time subdiffusion regime is only evident when the particles start at the border between different cells, i.e., at the separatrix, and is less pronounced or absent for other initial conditions. The motion moreover shows quite peculiar aging properties, which are also mirrored in the behavior of the time-averaged mean squared displacement for single trajectories. This kind of behavior is due to the complex motion of tracers trapped inside the cell and is absent in classical models based on continuous-time random walks with no dynamics in the trapped state.

Non-Gaussian initial conditions in ΛCDM: Newtonian, relativistic, and primordial contributions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bruni, Marco; Hidalgo, Juan Carlos; Meures, Nikolai; Wands, David

2014-01-01

The goal of the present paper is to set initial conditions for structure formation at nonlinear order, consistent with general relativity, while also allowing for primordial non-Gaussianity. We use the nonlinear continuity and Raychaudhuri equations, which together with the nonlinear energy constraint, determine the evolution of the matter density fluctuation in general relativity. We solve this equations at first and second order in a perturbative expansion, recovering and extending previous results derived in the matter-dominated limit and in the Newtonian regime. We present a second-order solution for the comoving density contrast in a ΛCDM universe, identifying nonlinear contributions coming from the Newtonian growing mode, primordial non-Gaussianity and intrinsic non-Gaussianity, due to the essential nonlinearity of the relativistic constraint equations. We discuss the application of these results to initial conditions in N-body simulations, showing that relativistic corrections mimic a non-zero nonlinear parameter f NL

The initial representation in reasoning towards an interpretation of conditional sentences.

Science.gov (United States)

Schroyens, Walter; Braem, Senne

2011-02-01

All accounts of human reasoning (whether presented at the symbolic or subsymbolic level) have to reckon with the temporal organization of the human processing systems and the ephemeral nature of the representations it uses. We present three new empirical tests for the hypothesis that people commence the interpretational process by constructing a minimal initial representation. In the case of if A then C the initial representation captures the occurrence of the consequent, C, within the context of the antecedent, A. Conditional inference problems are created by a categorical premise that affirms or denies A or C. The initial representation allows an inference when the explicitly represented information matches (e.g., the categorical premise A affirms the antecedent "A") but not when it mismatches (e.g., "not-A" denies A). Experiments 1 and 2 confirmed that people tend to accept the conclusion that "nothing follows" for the denial problems, as indeed they do not have a determinate initial-model conclusion. Experiment 3 demonstrated the other way round that the effect of problem type (affirmation versus denial) is reduced when we impede the possibility of inferring a determinate conclusion on the basis of the initial representation of both the affirmation and the denial problems.

Optimal Initial Perturbations for Ensemble Prediction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation during Boreal Winter

Science.gov (United States)

Ham, Yoo-Geun; Schubert, Siegfried; Chang, Yehui

2012-01-01

An initialization strategy, tailored to the prediction of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO), is evaluated using the Goddard Earth Observing System Model, version 5 (GEOS-5), coupled general circulation model (CGCM). The approach is based on the empirical singular vectors (ESVs) of a reduced-space statistically determined linear approximation of the full nonlinear CGCM. The initial ESV, extracted using 10 years (1990-99) of boreal winter hindcast data, has zonal wind anomalies over the western Indian Ocean, while the final ESV (at a forecast lead time of 10 days) reflects a propagation of the zonal wind anomalies to the east over the Maritime Continent an evolution that is characteristic of the MJO. A new set of ensemble hindcasts are produced for the boreal winter season from 1990 to 1999 in which the leading ESV provides the initial perturbations. The results are compared with those from a set of control hindcasts generated using random perturbations. It is shown that the ESV-based predictions have a systematically higher bivariate correlation skill in predicting the MJO compared to those using the random perturbations. Furthermore, the improvement in the skill depends on the phase of the MJO. The ESV is particularly effective in increasing the forecast skill during those phases of the MJO in which the control has low skill (with correlations increasing by as much as 0.2 at 20 25-day lead times), as well as during those times in which the MJO is weak.

Towards seasonal Arctic shipping route predictions

Science.gov (United States)

Haines, K.; Melia, N.; Hawkins, E.; Day, J. J.

2017-12-01

In our previous work [1] we showed how trans-Arctic shipping routes would become more available through the 21st century as sea ice declines, using CMIP5 models with means and stds calibrated to PIOMAS sea ice observations. Sea ice will continue to close shipping routes to open water vessels through the winter months for the foreseeable future so the availability of open sea routes will vary greatly from year to year. Here [2] we look at whether the trans-Arctic shipping season period can be predicted in seasonal forecasts, again using several climate models, and testing both perfect and imperfect knowledge of the initial sea ice conditions. We find skilful predictions of the upcoming summer shipping season can be made from as early as January, although typically forecasts may show lower skill before a May `predictability barrier'. Focussing on the northern sea route (NSR) off Siberia, the date of opening of this sea route is twice as variable as the closing date, and this carries through to reduced predictability at the start of the season. Under climate change the later freeze-up date accounts for 60% of the lengthening season, Fig1 We find that predictive skill is state dependent with predictions for high or low ice years exhibiting greater skill than for average ice years. Forecasting the exact timing of route open periods is harder (more weather dependent) under average ice conditions while in high and low ice years the season is more controlled by the initial ice conditions from spring onwards. This could be very useful information for companies planning vessel routing for the coming season. We tested this dependence on the initial ice conditions by changing the initial ice state towards climatologically average conditions and show directly that early summer sea-ice thickness information is crucial to obtain skilful forecasts of the coming shipping season. Mechanisms for this are discussed. This strongly suggests that good sea ice thickness observations

Multi-Scale Initial Conditions For Cosmological Simulations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hahn, Oliver; /KIPAC, Menlo Park; Abel, Tom; /KIPAC, Menlo Park /ZAH, Heidelberg /HITS, Heidelberg

2011-11-04

We discuss a new algorithm to generate multi-scale initial conditions with multiple levels of refinements for cosmological 'zoom-in' simulations. The method uses an adaptive convolution of Gaussian white noise with a real-space transfer function kernel together with an adaptive multi-grid Poisson solver to generate displacements and velocities following first- (1LPT) or second-order Lagrangian perturbation theory (2LPT). The new algorithm achieves rms relative errors of the order of 10{sup -4} for displacements and velocities in the refinement region and thus improves in terms of errors by about two orders of magnitude over previous approaches. In addition, errors are localized at coarse-fine boundaries and do not suffer from Fourier-space-induced interference ringing. An optional hybrid multi-grid and Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) based scheme is introduced which has identical Fourier-space behaviour as traditional approaches. Using a suite of re-simulations of a galaxy cluster halo our real-space-based approach is found to reproduce correlation functions, density profiles, key halo properties and subhalo abundances with per cent level accuracy. Finally, we generalize our approach for two-component baryon and dark-matter simulations and demonstrate that the power spectrum evolution is in excellent agreement with linear perturbation theory. For initial baryon density fields, it is suggested to use the local Lagrangian approximation in order to generate a density field for mesh-based codes that is consistent with the Lagrangian perturbation theory instead of the current practice of using the Eulerian linearly scaled densities.

Singularity, initial conditions and quantum tunneling in modern cosmology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Khalatnikov, I M; Kamenshchik, A Yu

1998-01-01

The key problems of modern cosmology, such as the cosmological singularity, initial conditions, and the quantum tunneling hypothesis, are discussed. The relationship between the latest cosmological trends and L D Landau's old ideas is analyzed. Particular attention is given to the oscillatory approach to singularity; quantum tunneling processes determining wave function of the Universe in the presence of a compex scalar field; and the role of quantum corrections in these processes. The classical dynamics of closed models with a real scalar field is investigated from the standpoint of chaotic, fractal, and singularity-avoiding properties. (special issue)

Perturbations in the initial soil moisture conditions: Impacts on hydrologic simulation in a large river basin

Science.gov (United States)

Niroula, Sundar; Halder, Subhadeep; Ghosh, Subimal

2018-06-01

Real time hydrologic forecasting requires near accurate initial condition of soil moisture; however, continuous monitoring of soil moisture is not operational in many regions, such as, in Ganga basin, extended in Nepal, India and Bangladesh. Here, we examine the impacts of perturbation/error in the initial soil moisture conditions on simulated soil moisture and streamflow in Ganga basin and its propagation, during the summer monsoon season (June to September). This provides information regarding the required minimum duration of model simulation for attaining the model stability. We use the Variable Infiltration Capacity model for hydrological simulations after validation. Multiple hydrologic simulations are performed, each of 21 days, initialized on every 5th day of the monsoon season for deficit, surplus and normal monsoon years. Each of these simulations is performed with the initial soil moisture condition obtained from long term runs along with positive and negative perturbations. The time required for the convergence of initial errors is obtained for all the cases. We find a quick convergence for the year with high rainfall as well as for the wet spells within a season. We further find high spatial variations in the time required for convergence; the region with high precipitation such as Lower Ganga basin attains convergence at a faster rate. Furthermore, deeper soil layers need more time for convergence. Our analysis is the first attempt on understanding the sensitivity of hydrological simulations of Ganga basin on initial soil moisture conditions. The results obtained here may be useful in understanding the spin-up requirements for operational hydrologic forecasts.

ACCEPT: Introduction of the Adverse Condition and Critical Event Prediction Toolbox

Science.gov (United States)

Martin, Rodney A.; Santanu, Das; Janakiraman, Vijay Manikandan; Hosein, Stefan

2015-01-01

The prediction of anomalies or adverse events is a challenging task, and there are a variety of methods which can be used to address the problem. In this paper, we introduce a generic framework developed in MATLAB (sup registered mark) called ACCEPT (Adverse Condition and Critical Event Prediction Toolbox). ACCEPT is an architectural framework designed to compare and contrast the performance of a variety of machine learning and early warning algorithms, and tests the capability of these algorithms to robustly predict the onset of adverse events in any time-series data generating systems or processes.

USING CONDITION MONITORING TO PREDICT REMAINING LIFE OF ELECTRIC CABLES

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

LOFARO, R.; SOO, P.; VILLARAN, M.; GROVE, E.

2001-01-01

Electric cables are passive components used extensively throughout nuclear power stations to perform numerous safety and non-safety functions. It is known that the polymers commonly used to insulate the conductors on these cables can degrade with time; the rate of degradation being dependent on the severity of the conditions in which the cables operate. Cables do not receive routine maintenance and, since it can be very costly, they are not replaced on a regular basis. Therefore, to ensure their continued functional performance, it would be beneficial if condition monitoring techniques could be used to estimate the remaining useful life of these components. A great deal of research has been performed on various condition monitoring techniques for use on electric cables. In a research program sponsored by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, several promising techniques were evaluated and found to provide trendable information on the condition of low-voltage electric cables. These techniques may be useful for predicting remaining life if well defined limiting values for the aging properties being measured can be determined. However, each technique has advantages and limitations that must be addressed in order to use it effectively, and the necessary limiting values are not always easy to obtain. This paper discusses how condition monitoring measurements can be used to predict the remaining useful life of electric cables. The attributes of an appropriate condition monitoring technique are presented, and the process to be used in estimating the remaining useful life of a cable is discussed along with the difficulties that must be addressed

Symbolic computation of analytic approximate solutions for nonlinear differential equations with initial conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Yezhi; Liu, Yinping; Li, Zhibin

2012-01-01

The Adomian decomposition method (ADM) is one of the most effective methods for constructing analytic approximate solutions of nonlinear differential equations. In this paper, based on the new definition of the Adomian polynomials, and the two-step Adomian decomposition method (TSADM) combined with the Padé technique, a new algorithm is proposed to construct accurate analytic approximations of nonlinear differential equations with initial conditions. Furthermore, a MAPLE package is developed, which is user-friendly and efficient. One only needs to input a system, initial conditions and several necessary parameters, then our package will automatically deliver analytic approximate solutions within a few seconds. Several different types of examples are given to illustrate the validity of the package. Our program provides a helpful and easy-to-use tool in science and engineering to deal with initial value problems. Program summaryProgram title: NAPA Catalogue identifier: AEJZ_v1_0 Program summary URL:http://cpc.cs.qub.ac.uk/summaries/AEJZ_v1_0.html Program obtainable from: CPC Program Library, Queen's University, Belfast, N. Ireland Licensing provisions: Standard CPC licence, http://cpc.cs.qub.ac.uk/licence/licence.html No. of lines in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 4060 No. of bytes in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 113 498 Distribution format: tar.gz Programming language: MAPLE R13 Computer: PC Operating system: Windows XP/7 RAM: 2 Gbytes Classification: 4.3 Nature of problem: Solve nonlinear differential equations with initial conditions. Solution method: Adomian decomposition method and Padé technique. Running time: Seconds at most in routine uses of the program. Special tasks may take up to some minutes.

42 CFR 433.130 - Waiver of conditions of initial operation and approval.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... Claims Processing and Information Retrieval Systems § 433.130 Waiver of conditions of initial operation... system will not significantly improve the efficiency of the administration of the State plan. (c) If CMS... waiver, that a system would significantly improve the administration of the State Medicaid program, CMS...

Gender differences in the factors predicting initial engagement at cardiac rehabilitation.

Science.gov (United States)

Galdas, Paul Michael; Harrison, Alexander Stephen; Doherty, Patrick

2018-01-01

To determine whether there are gender differences in the factors that predict attendance at the initial cardiac rehabilitation baseline assessment (CR engagement) after referral. Using data from the National Audit of Cardiac Rehabilitation, we analysed data on 95 638 patients referred to CR following a cardiovascular diagnosis/treatment between 2013 and 2016. Eighteen factors that have been shown in previous research to be important predictors of CR participation were investigated and grouped into four categories: sociodemographic factors, cardiac risk factors, patient medical status and service-level factors. Logistic binary regression models were built for male patients and female patients, assessing the likelihood for CR engagement. Each included predictors such as age, number of comorbidities and social deprivation score. There were no important differences in the factors that predict the likelihood of CR engagement in men and women. Seven factors associated with a reduced probability of CR engagement, and eight factors associated with increased probability, were identified. Fourteen of the 15 factors identified as predicting the likelihood for engagement/non-engagement were the same for both men and women. Increasing age, being South Asian or non-white ethnicity (other than Black) and being single were all associated with a reduced likelihood of attending an initial CR baseline assessment in both men and women. Male patients with diabetes were 11% less likely to engage with CR; however, there was no significant association in women. Results showed that the overwhelmingly important determinant of CR engagement observed in both men and women was receiving an invitation to attend an assessment session (OR 4.223 men/4.033women; pgender differences in predictors of CR uptake should probably be more nuanced and informed by the stage of the patient care pathway.

Conditional mode regression: Application to functional time series prediction

OpenAIRE

Dabo-Niang, Sophie; Laksaci, Ali

2008-01-01

We consider $\\alpha$-mixing observations and deal with the estimation of the conditional mode of a scalar response variable $Y$ given a random variable $X$ taking values in a semi-metric space. We provide a convergence rate in $L^p$ norm of the estimator. A useful and typical application to functional times series prediction is given.

On the initial condition problem of the time domain PMCHWT surface integral equation

KAUST Repository

Uysal, Ismail Enes; Bagci, Hakan; Ergin, A. Arif; Ulku, H. Arda

2017-01-01

Non-physical, linearly increasing and constant current components are induced in marching on-in-time solution of time domain surface integral equations when initial conditions on time derivatives of (unknown) equivalent currents are not enforced

Transients from initial conditions based on Lagrangian perturbation theory in N-body simulations II: the effect of the transverse mode

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tatekawa, Takayuki

2014-01-01

We study the initial conditions for cosmological N-body simulations for precision cosmology. In general, Zel'dovich approximation has been applied for the initial conditions of N-body simulations for a long time. These initial conditions provide incorrect higher-order growth. These error caused by setting up the initial conditions by perturbation theory is called transients. We investigated the impact of transient on non-Gaussianity of density field by performing cosmological N-body simulations with initial conditions based on first-, second-, and third-order Lagrangian perturbation theory in previous paper. In this paper, we evaluates the effect of the transverse mode in the third-order Lagrangian perturbation theory for several statistical quantities such as power spectrum and non-Gaussianty. Then we clarified that the effect of the transverse mode in the third-order Lagrangian perturbation theory is quite small

Predicting thermal reference conditions for USA streams and rivers

Science.gov (United States)

Hill, Ryan A.; Hawkins, Charles P.; Carlisle, Daren M.

2013-01-01

Temperature is a primary driver of the structure and function of stream ecosystems. However, the lack of stream temperature (ST) data for the vast majority of streams and rivers severely compromises our ability to describe patterns of thermal variation among streams, test hypotheses regarding the effects of temperature on macroecological patterns, and assess the effects of altered STs on ecological resources. Our goal was to develop empirical models that could: 1) quantify the effects of stream and watershed alteration (SWA) on STs, and 2) accurately and precisely predict natural (i.e., reference condition) STs in conterminous USA streams and rivers. We modeled 3 ecologically important elements of the thermal regime: mean summer, mean winter, and mean annual ST. To build reference-condition models (RCMs), we used daily mean ST data obtained from several thousand US Geological Survey temperature sites distributed across the conterminous USA and iteratively modeled ST with Random Forests to identify sites in reference condition. We first created a set of dirty models (DMs) that related STs to both natural factors (e.g., climate, watershed area, topography) and measures of SWA, i.e., reservoirs, urbanization, and agriculture. The 3 models performed well (r2 = 0.84–0.94, residual mean square error [RMSE] = 1.2–2.0°C). For each DM, we used partial dependence plots to identify SWA thresholds below which response in ST was minimal. We then used data from only the sites with upstream SWA below these thresholds to build RCMs with only natural factors as predictors (r2 = 0.87–0.95, RMSE = 1.1–1.9°C). Use of only reference-quality sites caused RCMs to suffer modest loss of predictor space and spatial coverage, but this loss was associated with parts of ST response curves that were flat and, therefore, not responsive to further variation in predictor space. We then compared predictions made with the RCMs to predictions made with the DMs with SWA set to 0. For most

Flow behaviour in a CANDU horizontal fuel channel from stagnant subcooled initial conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Caplan, M.Z.; Gulshani, P.; Holmes, R.W.; Wright, A.C.D.

1984-01-01

The flow behaviour in a CANDU primary system with horizontal fuel channels is described following a small inlet header break. With the primary pumps running, emergency coolant injection is in the forward direction so that the channel outlet feeders remain warmer than the inlet thereby promoting forward natural circulation. However, the break force opposes the forward driving force. Should the primary pumps run down after the circuit has refilled, there is a break size for which the natural circulation force is balanced by the break force and channels could, theoretically, stagnate. Result of visualization and of full-size channel tests on channel flow behaviour from an initially stagnant channel condition are discussed. After a channel stagnation, the decay power heats the coolant to saturation. Steam is then formed and the coolant stratifies. The steam expands into the subcooled water in the end fitting in a chugging type of flow regime due to steam condensation. After the end fitting reaches the saturation temperature, steam is able to penetrate into the vertical feeder thereby initiating a large buoyancy induced flow which refills the channel. The duration of stagnation is shown to be sensitive to small asymmetries in the initial conditions. A small initial flow can significantly shorten the occurrence and/or duration of boiling as has been confirmed by reactor experience. (author)

Protein 8-class secondary structure prediction using conditional neural fields.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Zhiyong; Zhao, Feng; Peng, Jian; Xu, Jinbo

2011-10-01

Compared with the protein 3-class secondary structure (SS) prediction, the 8-class prediction gains less attention and is also much more challenging, especially for proteins with few sequence homologs. This paper presents a new probabilistic method for 8-class SS prediction using conditional neural fields (CNFs), a recently invented probabilistic graphical model. This CNF method not only models the complex relationship between sequence features and SS, but also exploits the interdependency among SS types of adjacent residues. In addition to sequence profiles, our method also makes use of non-evolutionary information for SS prediction. Tested on the CB513 and RS126 data sets, our method achieves Q8 accuracy of 64.9 and 64.7%, respectively, which are much better than the SSpro8 web server (51.0 and 48.0%, respectively). Our method can also be used to predict other structure properties (e.g. solvent accessibility) of a protein or the SS of RNA. Copyright © 2011 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Kinetics of gamma quanta initiated difluoroethane chlorization in inert solvent in dynamic conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Begishev, I.R.; Poluehktov, V.A.

1979-01-01

Studied is the kinetics of asymmetric difluoroethane chlorination under dynamic conditions where difluoroethane and chlorine are passed through liquid tetrachloromethane layer. It is shown that initiating chlorination of asymmetric difluoroethane by gamma quanta in the dose and temperature ranges of 2-50 rad/s and -30-100 deg C respectively brings to the significant increase of the reaction rate and unusually high trend for halogenated hydrocarbons, i.e. practically 1, 1, 1 - difluorochloroethane with quantitative yield is formed. In this case radiation chemical yield G=10 4 -10 5 is achieved. It is shown that the chlorination process under dynamic conditions, complicated by the transport of initial reagents from a gas phase to a liquid one and reaction products from a liquid phase to a gas one, is described satisfactorily by the model of ideal substitution reactor

Avoiding the blue spectrum and the fine-tuning of initial conditions in hybrid inflation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Clesse, Sebastien; Rocher, Jonathan

2009-01-01

Hybrid inflation faces two well-known problems: the blue spectrum of the nonsupersymmetric version of the model and the fine-tuning of the initial conditions of the fields leading to sufficient inflation to account for the standard cosmological problems. They are investigated by studying the exact two-fields dynamics instead of assuming slow-roll. When the field values are restricted to be less than the reduced Planck mass, a non-negligible part of the initial condition space (around 15% depending on potential parameters) leads to successful inflation. Most of it is located outside the usual inflationary valley and organized in continuous patterns instead of being isolated as previously found. Their existence is explained and their properties are studied. This shows that no excessive fine-tuning is required for successful hybrid inflation. Moreover, by extending the initial condition space to Planckian-like or super-Planckian values, inflation becomes generically sufficiently long and can produce a red-tilted scalar power spectrum due to slow-roll violations. The robustness of these properties is confirmed by conducting our analysis on three other models of hybrid-type inflation in various framework: 'smooth' and 'shifted' inflation in SUSY and SUGRA, and 'radion assisted' gauge inflation. A high percentage of successful inflation for smooth hybrid inflation (up to 80%) is observed.

Analysis of grain growth process in melt spun Fe-B alloys under the initial saturated grain boundary segregation condition

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen, Z.; Liu, F.; Yang, X.Q.; Fan, Y.; Shen, C.J.

2012-01-01

Highlights: → We compared pure kinetic, pure thermodynamic and extended thermo-kinetic models. → An initial saturated GB segregation condition of nanoscale Fe-B alloys was determined. → The controlled-mechanism was proposed using two characteristic times (t 1 and t 2 ). - Abstract: A grain growth process in the melt spun low-solid-solubility Fe-B alloys was analyzed under the initial saturated grain boundary (GB) segregation condition. Applying melt spinning technique, single-phase supersaturated nanograins were prepared. Grain growth behavior of the single-phase supersaturated nanograins was investigated by performing isothermal annealing at 700 deg. C. Combined with the effect of GB segregation on the initial GB excess amount, the thermo-kinetic model [Chen et al., Acta Mater. 57 (2009) 1466] was extended to describe the initial GB segregation condition of nanoscale Fe-B alloys. In comparison of pure kinetic model, pure thermodynamic model and the extended thermo-kinetic model, an initial saturated GB segregation condition was determined. The controlled-mechanism of grain growth under initial saturated GB segregation condition was proposed using two characteristic annealing times (t 1 and t 2 ), which included a mainly kinetic-controlled process (t ≤ t 1 ), a transition from kinetic-mechanism to thermodynamic-mechanism (t 1 2 ) and pure thermodynamic-controlled process (t ≥ t 2 ).

Surface-Initiated Graft Atom Transfer Radical Polymerization of Methyl Methacrylate from Chitin Nanofiber Macroinitiator under Dispersion Conditions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ryo Endo

2015-08-01

Full Text Available Surface-initiated graft atom transfer radical polymerization (ATRP of methyl methacrylate (MMA from self-assembled chitin nanofibers (CNFs was performed under dispersion conditions. Self-assembled CNFs were initially prepared by regeneration from a chitin ion gel with 1-allyl-3-methylimidazolium bromide using methanol; the product was then converted into the chitin nanofiber macroinitiator by reaction with α-bromoisobutyryl bromide in a dispersion containing N,N-dimethylformamide. Surface-initiated graft ATRP of MMA from the initiating sites on the CNFs was subsequently carried out under dispersion conditions, followed by filtration to obtain the CNF-graft-polyMMA film. Analysis of the product confirmed the occurrence of the graft ATRP on the surface of the CNFs.

Predicting speech intelligibility in conditions with nonlinearly processed noisy speech

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jørgensen, Søren; Dau, Torsten

2013-01-01

The speech-based envelope power spectrum model (sEPSM; [1]) was proposed in order to overcome the limitations of the classical speech transmission index (STI) and speech intelligibility index (SII). The sEPSM applies the signal-tonoise ratio in the envelope domain (SNRenv), which was demonstrated...... to successfully predict speech intelligibility in conditions with nonlinearly processed noisy speech, such as processing with spectral subtraction. Moreover, a multiresolution version (mr-sEPSM) was demonstrated to account for speech intelligibility in various conditions with stationary and fluctuating...

EARLY DYNAMICAL EVOLUTION OF THE SOLAR SYSTEM: PINNING DOWN THE INITIAL CONDITIONS OF THE NICE MODEL

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Batygin, Konstantin; Brown, Michael E.

2010-01-01

In the recent years, the 'Nice' model of solar system formation has attained an unprecedented level of success in reproducing much of the observed orbital architecture of the solar system by evolving the planets to their current locations from a more compact configuration. Within the context of this model, the formation of the classical Kuiper Belt requires a phase during which the ice giants have a high eccentricity. An outstanding question of this model is the initial configuration from which the solar system started out. Recent work has shown that multi-resonant initial conditions can serve as good candidates, as they naturally prevent vigorous type-II migration. In this paper, we use analytical arguments, as well as self-consistent numerical N-body simulations to identify fully resonant initial conditions, whose dynamical evolution is characterized by an eccentric phase of the ice giants, as well as planetary scattering. We find a total of eight such initial conditions. Four of these primordial states are compatible with the canonical 'Nice' model, while the others imply slightly different evolutions. The results presented here should prove useful in further development of a comprehensive model for solar system formation.

On the appropriate definition of soil profile configuration and initial conditions for land surface-hydrology models in cold regions

Science.gov (United States)

Sapriza-Azuri, Gonzalo; Gamazo, Pablo; Razavi, Saman; Wheater, Howard S.

2018-06-01

Arctic and subarctic regions are amongst the most susceptible regions on Earth to global warming and climate change. Understanding and predicting the impact of climate change in these regions require a proper process representation of the interactions between climate, carbon cycle, and hydrology in Earth system models. This study focuses on land surface models (LSMs) that represent the lower boundary condition of general circulation models (GCMs) and regional climate models (RCMs), which simulate climate change evolution at the global and regional scales, respectively. LSMs typically utilize a standard soil configuration with a depth of no more than 4 m, whereas for cold, permafrost regions, field experiments show that attention to deep soil profiles is needed to understand and close the water and energy balances, which are tightly coupled through the phase change. To address this gap, we design and run a series of model experiments with a one-dimensional LSM, called CLASS (Canadian Land Surface Scheme), as embedded in the MESH (Modélisation Environmentale Communautaire - Surface and Hydrology) modelling system, to (1) characterize the effect of soil profile depth under different climate conditions and in the presence of parameter uncertainty; (2) assess the effect of including or excluding the geothermal flux in the LSM at the bottom of the soil column; and (3) develop a methodology for temperature profile initialization in permafrost regions, where the system has an extended memory, by the use of paleo-records and bootstrapping. Our study area is in Norman Wells, Northwest Territories of Canada, where measurements of soil temperature profiles and historical reconstructed climate data are available. Our results demonstrate a dominant role for parameter uncertainty, that is often neglected in LSMs. Considering such high sensitivity to parameter values and dependency on the climate condition, we show that a minimum depth of 20 m is essential to adequately represent

Growth and yield predictions for upland oak stands. 10 years after initial thinning

Science.gov (United States)

Martin E. Dale; Martin E. Dale

1972-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to furnish part of the needed information, that is, quantitative estimates of growth and yield 10 years after initial thinning of upland oak stands. All estimates are computed from a system of equations. These predictions are presented here in tabular form for convenient visual inspection of growth and yield trends. The tables show growth...

CONDOP: an R package for CONdition-Dependent Operon Predictions.

Science.gov (United States)

Fortino, Vittorio; Tagliaferri, Roberto; Greco, Dario

2016-10-15

The use of high-throughput RNA sequencing to predict dynamic operon structures in prokaryotic genomes has recently gained popularity in bioinformatics. We provide the R implementation of a novel method that uses transcriptomic features extracted from RNA-seq transcriptome profiles to develop ensemble classifiers for condition-dependent operon predictions. The CONDOP package provides a deeper insight into RNA-seq data analysis and allows scientists to highlight the operon organization in the context of transcriptional regulation with a few lines of code. CONDOP is implemented in R and is freely available at CRAN. vittorio.fortino@helsinki.fiSupplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Computer code calculations of the TMI-2 accident: initial and boundary conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Behling, S.R.

1985-05-01

Initial and boundary conditions during the Three Mile Island Unit 2 (TMI-2) accident are described and detailed. A brief description of the TMI-2 plant configuration is given. Important contributions to the progression of the accident in the reactor coolant system are discussed. Sufficient information is provided to allow calculation of the TMI-2 accident with computer codes

Machine and lubricant condition monitoring for extended equipment lifetimes and predictive maintenance

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lukas, M; Anderson, D P [Spectro Incorporated, Littleton, Massachusetts (United States)

1998-12-31

Predictive maintenance has gained wide acceptance as a cost cutting strategy in modern industry. Condition monitoring by lubricant analysis is one of the basic tools of a predictive maintenance program along with vibration monitoring, performance monitoring and thermography. In today`s modern power generation, manufacturing, refinery, transportation, mining, and military operations, the cost of equipment maintenance, service, and lubricants are ever increasing. Parts, labor, equipment downtime and lubricant prices and disposal costs are a primary concern in a well run maintenance management program. Machine condition monitoring based on oil analysis has become a prerequisite in most maintenance programs. Few operations can afford not to implement a program if they wish to remain competitive, and in some cases, profitable. This presentation describes a comprehensive Machine Condition Monitoring Program based on oil analysis. Actual operational condition monitoring programs will be used to review basic components and analytical requirements. Case histories will be cited as examples of cost savings, reduced equipment downtime and increased efficiencies of maintenance programs through a well managed oil analysis program. (orig.)

Machine and lubricant condition monitoring for extended equipment lifetimes and predictive maintenance

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lukas, M.; Anderson, D.P. [Spectro Incorporated, Littleton, Massachusetts (United States)

1997-12-31

Predictive maintenance has gained wide acceptance as a cost cutting strategy in modern industry. Condition monitoring by lubricant analysis is one of the basic tools of a predictive maintenance program along with vibration monitoring, performance monitoring and thermography. In today`s modern power generation, manufacturing, refinery, transportation, mining, and military operations, the cost of equipment maintenance, service, and lubricants are ever increasing. Parts, labor, equipment downtime and lubricant prices and disposal costs are a primary concern in a well run maintenance management program. Machine condition monitoring based on oil analysis has become a prerequisite in most maintenance programs. Few operations can afford not to implement a program if they wish to remain competitive, and in some cases, profitable. This presentation describes a comprehensive Machine Condition Monitoring Program based on oil analysis. Actual operational condition monitoring programs will be used to review basic components and analytical requirements. Case histories will be cited as examples of cost savings, reduced equipment downtime and increased efficiencies of maintenance programs through a well managed oil analysis program. (orig.)

Prediction of fracture initiation in square cup drawing of DP980 using an anisotropic ductile fracture criterion

Science.gov (United States)

Park, N.; Huh, H.; Yoon, J. W.

2017-09-01

This paper deals with the prediction of fracture initiation in square cup drawing of DP980 steel sheet with the thickness of 1.2 mm. In an attempt to consider the influence of material anisotropy on the fracture initiation, an uncoupled anisotropic ductile fracture criterion is developed based on the Lou—Huh ductile fracture criterion. Tensile tests are carried out at different loading directions of 0°, 45°, and 90° to the rolling direction of the sheet using various specimen geometries including pure shear, dog-bone, and flat grooved specimens so as to calibrate the parameters of the proposed fracture criterion. Equivalent plastic strain distribution on the specimen surface is computed using Digital Image Correlation (DIC) method until surface crack initiates. The proposed fracture criterion is implemented into the commercial finite element code ABAQUS/Explicit by developing the Vectorized User-defined MATerial (VUMAT) subroutine which features the non-associated flow rule. Simulation results of the square cup drawing test clearly show that the proposed fracture criterion is capable of predicting the fracture initiation with sufficient accuracy considering the material anisotropy.

Condition Assessment and End-of-Life Prediction System for Electric Machines and Their Loads

Science.gov (United States)

Parlos, Alexander G.; Toliyat, Hamid A.

2005-01-01

An end-of-life prediction system developed for electric machines and their loads could be used in integrated vehicle health monitoring at NASA and in other government agencies. This system will provide on-line, real-time condition assessment and end-of-life prediction of electric machines (e.g., motors, generators) and/or their loads of mechanically coupled machinery (e.g., pumps, fans, compressors, turbines, conveyor belts, magnetic levitation trains, and others). In long-duration space flight, the ability to predict the lifetime of machinery could spell the difference between mission success or failure. Therefore, the system described here may be of inestimable value to the U.S. space program. The system will provide continuous monitoring for on-line condition assessment and end-of-life prediction as opposed to the current off-line diagnoses.

On Perturbative Cubic Nonlinear Schrodinger Equations under Complex Nonhomogeneities and Complex Initial Conditions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Magdy A. El-Tawil

2009-01-01

Full Text Available A perturbing nonlinear Schrodinger equation is studied under general complex nonhomogeneities and complex initial conditions for zero boundary conditions. The perturbation method together with the eigenfunction expansion and variational parameters methods are used to introduce an approximate solution for the perturbative nonlinear case for which a power series solution is proved to exist. Using Mathematica, the symbolic solution algorithm is tested through computing the possible approximations under truncation procedures. The method of solution is illustrated through case studies and figures.

Centrifuge model tests of rainfall-induced slope failures for the investigation of the initiation conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Matziaris, Vasileios; Marshall, Alec; Yu, Hai-Sui

2015-04-01

Rainfall-induced landslides are very common natural disasters which cause damage to properties and infrastructure and may result in the loss of human lives. These phenomena often take place in unsaturated soil slopes and are triggered by the saturation of the soil profile, due to rain infiltration, which leads to a loss of shear strength. The aim of this study is to determine rainfall thresholds for the initiation of landslides under different initial conditions. Model tests of rainfall-induced landslides are conducted in the Nottingham Centre for Geomechanics 50g-T geotechnical centrifuge. Initially unsaturated plane-strain slope models made with fine silica sand are prepared at varying densities at 1g and accommodated within a climatic chamber which provides controlled environmental conditions. During the centrifuge flight at 60g, rainfall events of varying intensity and duration are applied to the slope models causing the initiation of slope failure. The impact of soil state properties and rainfall characteristics on the landslide initiation process are discussed. The variation of pore water pressures within the slope before, during and after simulated rainfall events is recorded using miniature pore pressure transducers buried in the soil model. Slope deformation is determined by using a high-speed camera and digital image analysis techniques.

Study of the initiation of subcooled boiling during power transients

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

VanVleet, R.J.

1985-01-01

An experimental investigation of boiling initiation during power transients has been conducted for horizontal-cylinder heating elements in degassed distilled water. Platinum elements, 0.127 and 0.250 mm in diameter, were internally heated electrically at a controlled superficial heat flux (power applied divided by surface area) increasing linearly with time at rates of 0.035 and 0.35 MW/m 2 s and corresponding test durations of 20 and 2 seconds. Tests were carried out at saturation temperatures from 100 to 195 0 C with bulk fluid subcooling from 0 to 30 K. During the course of a power transient, element temperature and superficial heat flux were measured electrically and the boiling initiation time was determined optically. It was found that the conditions for boiling initiation depended strongly on the pressure-temperature history of the heating element and surround fluid prior to the transient. Boiling initiation times were found to agree qualitatively with predictions of a model based on the contact-angle hysteresis concept. Brief prepressurization prior to a transient was found to increase dramatically the temperature and heat flux required for boiling initiation because of deactivation of boiling initiation sites. However, sites were re-activated during the transient and, in subsequent tests without prepressurization, no elevation in boiling initiation conditions was observed and results were in quantitative agreement with predictions of the model

Comparison of Damage Models for Predicting the Non-Linear Response of Laminates Under Matrix Dominated Loading Conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Schuecker, Clara; Davila, Carlos G.; Rose, Cheryl A.

2010-01-01

Five models for matrix damage in fiber reinforced laminates are evaluated for matrix-dominated loading conditions under plane stress and are compared both qualitatively and quantitatively. The emphasis of this study is on a comparison of the response of embedded plies subjected to a homogeneous stress state. Three of the models are specifically designed for modeling the non-linear response due to distributed matrix cracking under homogeneous loading, and also account for non-linear (shear) behavior prior to the onset of cracking. The remaining two models are localized damage models intended for predicting local failure at stress concentrations. The modeling approaches of distributed vs. localized cracking as well as the different formulations of damage initiation and damage progression are compared and discussed.

Discretizing LTI Descriptor (Regular Differential Input Systems with Consistent Initial Conditions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Athanasios D. Karageorgos

2010-01-01

Full Text Available A technique for discretizing efficiently the solution of a Linear descriptor (regular differential input system with consistent initial conditions, and Time-Invariant coefficients (LTI is introduced and fully discussed. Additionally, an upper bound for the error ‖x¯(kT−x¯k‖ that derives from the procedure of discretization is also provided. Practically speaking, we are interested in such kind of systems, since they are inherent in many physical, economical and engineering phenomena.

The Advantages of Hybrid 4DEnVar in the Context of the Forecast Sensitivity to Initial Conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Song, Hyo-Jong; Shin, Seoleun; Ha, Ji-Hyun; Lim, Sujeong

2017-11-01

Hybrid four-dimensional ensemble variational data assimilation (hybrid 4DEnVar) is a prospective successor to three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3DVar) in operational weather prediction centers currently developing a new weather prediction model and those that do not operate adjoint models. In experiments using real observations, hybrid 4DEnVar improved Northern Hemisphere (NH; 20°N-90°N) 500 hPa geopotential height forecasts up to 5 days in a NH summer month compared to 3DVar, with statistical significance. This result is verified against ERA-Interim through a Monte Carlo test. By a regression analysis, the sensitivity of 5 day forecast is associated with the quality of the initial condition. The increased analysis skill for midtropospheric midlatitude temperature and subtropical moisture has the most apparent effect on forecast skill in the NH including a typhoon prediction case. Through attributing the analysis improvements by hybrid 4DEnVar separately to the ensemble background error covariance (BEC), its four-dimensional (4-D) extension, and climatological BEC, it is revealed that the ensemble BEC contributes to the subtropical moisture analysis, whereas the 4-D extension does to the midtropospheric midlatitude temperature. This result implies that hourly wind-mass correlation in 6 h analysis window is required to extract the potential of hybrid 4DEnVar for the midlatitude temperature analysis to the maximum. However, the temporal ensemble correlation, in hourly time scale, between moisture and another variable is invalid so that it could not work for improving the hybrid 4DEnVar analysis.

The Use of Graphs in Specific Situations of the Initial Conditions of Linear Differential Equations

Science.gov (United States)

Buendía, Gabriela; Cordero, Francisco

2013-01-01

In this article, we present a discussion on the role of graphs and its significance in the relation between the number of initial conditions and the order of a linear differential equation, which is known as the initial value problem. We propose to make a functional framework for the use of graphs that intends to broaden the explanations of the…

Remaining useful life prediction based on noisy condition monitoring signals using constrained Kalman filter

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Son, Junbo; Zhou, Shiyu; Sankavaram, Chaitanya; Du, Xinyu; Zhang, Yilu

2016-01-01

In this paper, a statistical prognostic method to predict the remaining useful life (RUL) of individual units based on noisy condition monitoring signals is proposed. The prediction accuracy of existing data-driven prognostic methods depends on the capability of accurately modeling the evolution of condition monitoring (CM) signals. Therefore, it is inevitable that the RUL prediction accuracy depends on the amount of random noise in CM signals. When signals are contaminated by a large amount of random noise, RUL prediction even becomes infeasible in some cases. To mitigate this issue, a robust RUL prediction method based on constrained Kalman filter is proposed. The proposed method models the CM signals subject to a set of inequality constraints so that satisfactory prediction accuracy can be achieved regardless of the noise level of signal evolution. The advantageous features of the proposed RUL prediction method is demonstrated by both numerical study and case study with real world data from automotive lead-acid batteries. - Highlights: • A computationally efficient constrained Kalman filter is proposed. • Proposed filter is integrated into an online failure prognosis framework. • A set of proper constraints significantly improves the failure prediction accuracy. • Promising results are reported in the application of battery failure prognosis.

High burnup fuel onset conditions in dry storage. Prediction of EOL rod internal pressure

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Feria, F.; Herranz, L.E.

2015-07-01

During dry storage, cladding resistance to failure can be affected by several degrading mechanisms like creep or hydrides radial reorientation. The driving force of these effects is the stress at which the cladding is submitted. The maximum stress in the cladding is determined by the end-of-reactor-life (EOL) rod internal pressure, PEOL, at the maximum temperature attained during dry storage. Thus, PEOL sets the initial conditions of storage for potential time-dependent changes in the cladding. Based on FRAPCON-3.5 calculations, the aim of this work is to analyse the PEOL of a PWR fuel rod irradiated to burnups greater than 60 GWd/tU, where limited information is available. In order to be conservative, demanding irradiation histories have been used with a peak linear power of 44 kW/m. FRAPCON-3.5 results show an increasing exponential trend of PEOL with burnup, from which a simple correlation has been derived. The comparison with experimental data found in the literature confirms the enveloping nature of the predicted curve. Based on that, a conservative prediction of cladding stress in dry storage has been obtained. The comparison with a critical stress threshold related to hydrides embrittlement seems to point out that this issue should not be a concern at burnups below 65 GWd/tU. (Author)

Modifying mixing and instability growth through the adjustment of initial conditions in a high-energy-density counter-propagating shear experiment on OMEGA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Merritt, E. C.; Doss, F. W.; Loomis, E. N.; Flippo, K. A.; Kline, J. L.

2015-01-01

Counter-propagating shear experiments conducted at the OMEGA Laser Facility have been evaluating the effect of target initial conditions, specifically the characteristics of a tracer foil located at the shear boundary, on Kelvin-Helmholtz instability evolution and experiment transition toward nonlinearity and turbulence in the high-energy-density (HED) regime. Experiments are focused on both identifying and uncoupling the dependence of the model initial turbulent length scale in variable-density turbulence models of k-ϵ type on competing physical instability seed lengths as well as developing a path toward fully developed turbulent HED experiments. We present results from a series of experiments controllably and independently varying two initial types of scale lengths in the experiment: the thickness and surface roughness (surface perturbation scale spectrum) of a tracer layer at the shear interface. We show that decreasing the layer thickness and increasing the surface roughness both have the ability to increase the relative mixing in the system, and thus theoretically decrease the time required to begin transitioning to turbulence in the system. We also show that we can connect a change in observed mix width growth due to increased foil surface roughness to an analytically predicted change in model initial turbulent scale lengths

On a nonlinear integrodifferential evolution inclusion with nonlocal initial conditions in Banach spaces

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zuomao Yan

2012-01-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we discuss the existence results for a class of nnlinear integrodifferential evolution inclusions with nonlocal initial conditions in Banach spaces. Our results are based on a fixed point theorem for condensing maps due to Martelli and the resolvent operators combined with approximation techniques.

Deep recurrent conditional random field network for protein secondary prediction

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Johansen, Alexander Rosenberg; Sønderby, Søren Kaae; Sønderby, Casper Kaae

2017-01-01

Deep learning has become the state-of-the-art method for predicting protein secondary structure from only its amino acid residues and sequence profile. Building upon these results, we propose to combine a bi-directional recurrent neural network (biRNN) with a conditional random field (CRF), which...... of the labels for all time-steps. We condition the CRF on the output of biRNN, which learns a distributed representation based on the entire sequence. The biRNN-CRF is therefore close to ideally suited for the secondary structure task because a high degree of cross-talk between neighboring elements can...

Initial growth of Bauhinia variegata trees under different colored shade nets and light conditions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Renata Bachin Mazzini-Guedes

2014-12-01

Full Text Available Bauhinia variegata and B. variegata var. candida, commonly known as orchid trees, are small sized trees widely used for urban forestry and landscaping. Adult plants grow under full sun; in Brazil, however, seedlings are generally cultivated in commercial nurseries under natural half-shading. The objective of this study was to evaluate the influence of different colored shade nets and light conditions on the initial growth of B. variegata and B. variegata var. candida. The influence of six light conditions (red net with 50% shading; blue net with 50% shading; black net with 70% shading; black net with 50% shading; black net with 30% shading; and full sun on the initial growth of B. variegata and B. variegata var. candida were evaluated along 160 days, and growth relationships were calculated. Seedlings showed more efficiency on the use of photoassimilated compounds when grown under full sun. Such condition is the most appropriate for seedling production of B. variegata and B. variegata var. candida, contradicting what has been performed in practice.

Moving from measuring to predicting bycatch mortality: predicting the capture condition of a longline-caught pelagic shark

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Derek Richard Dapp

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Incidental fisheries capture has been identified as having a major effect on shark populations throughout the world. However, factors that contribute to the mortality of shark bycatch during fisheries capture are not fully understood. Here, we investigated the effects of capture duration, sea surface temperature, and shark total length (snout to the tip of the upper caudal lobe on the physiology and condition of longline-caught bronze whalers, Carcharhinus brachyurus. Plasma lactate and potassium concentration had a positive linear relationship with capture duration, indicating that this species experiences increasing physiological challenges while on fishing gear. Additionally, we used stereotype logistic regression models to determine variables that could predict the capture condition of sharks (categorized as healthy, sluggish, or moribund or dead. In these models, elevated plasma lactate concentration, plasma potassium concentration, and capture duration increased the likelihood of C. brachyurus being captured in a sluggish condition or in a moribund or dead condition. After plasma lactate concentration exceeded 27.4 mmol/L, plasma potassium concentration exceeded 8.3 mmol/L, or capture durations exceeded 293 minutes, the majority of captured sharks (>50% were predicted to be moribund or dead. We recommend that a reduction in the amount of time longlines are left fishing (soak time will reduce immediate and post-release mortality in C. brachyurus bycatch and that our methods could be applied to identify causes of fisheries-induced mortality in future studies. The identification of operational, environmental, and biological variables contributing to poor condition will be necessary to implement conservation strategies that reduce mortality during capture.

TRANSFORMATION OF ECONOMY IN THE CONDITIONS OF FORMING THE NATIONAL TECHNOLOGICAL INITIATIVE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Elena Sibirskaya

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The relevance of the study is conditioned by the need for a clear idea about the upcoming transformation of the Russian economy for implementing the national technology initiative (NTI. Today, Russia is facing a “challenge of development”, which determines the necessity of transition to breakthrough scientific and technological development as a major strategic objective for the future, which definitely determines further socio-economic development. In his address to the Federal Assembly of December 4, 2014, Russian President Vladimir Putin outlined the National technology initiative to be one of the priorities of state policy. “On the basis of long-term forecasting it is necessary to understand what challenges Russia will face in 10-15 years, what advanced solutions will be required in order to ensure national security, high quality of life, development of new technological order” (from the message to the Federal Assembly [6]. The response to this challenge is the National technology initiative, aimed at developing a robust creative and business environment that allows to convert technological breakthroughs to new markets into an element of the system of continuous reproduction of income, human and technological capital. Information base of the research includes legal documents of the Government of the Russian Federation, the official publications under the project office of STI, reports of Russian Academy of Sciences, developments of the Expert Council under the government of the Russian Federation and Agency for strategic initiatives, Federal Agency of scientific organizations, research groups, individual scientists and specialists, Internet resources and the authors’ own developments. The first systematic and methodologically coherent statement of the ideology of economy transformation in the conditions of forming national technological initiative is presented in the report “Framework of the National technology initiative” of

Multiple unit root tests under uncertainty over the initial condition : some powerful modifications

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hanck, C.

We modify the union-of-rejection unit root test of Harvey et al. "Unit Root Testing in Practice: Dealing with Uncertainty over the Trend and Initial Condition" (Harvey, Econom Theory 25:587-636, 2009). This test rejects if either of two different unit root tests rejects but controls the inherent

Neural plasticity and its initiating conditions in tinnitus.

Science.gov (United States)

Roberts, L E

2018-03-01

Deafferentation caused by cochlear pathology (which can be hidden from the audiogram) activates forms of neural plasticity in auditory pathways, generating tinnitus and its associated conditions including hyperacusis. This article discusses tinnitus mechanisms and suggests how these mechanisms may relate to those involved in normal auditory information processing. Research findings from animal models of tinnitus and from electromagnetic imaging of tinnitus patients are reviewed which pertain to the role of deafferentation and neural plasticity in tinnitus and hyperacusis. Auditory neurons compensate for deafferentation by increasing their input/output functions (gain) at multiple levels of the auditory system. Forms of homeostatic plasticity are believed to be responsible for this neural change, which increases the spontaneous and driven activity of neurons in central auditory structures in animals expressing behavioral evidence of tinnitus. Another tinnitus correlate, increased neural synchrony among the affected neurons, is forged by spike-timing-dependent neural plasticity in auditory pathways. Slow oscillations generated by bursting thalamic neurons verified in tinnitus animals appear to modulate neural plasticity in the cortex, integrating tinnitus neural activity with information in brain regions supporting memory, emotion, and consciousness which exhibit increased metabolic activity in tinnitus patients. The latter process may be induced by transient auditory events in normal processing but it persists in tinnitus, driven by phantom signals from the auditory pathway. Several tinnitus therapies attempt to suppress tinnitus through plasticity, but repeated sessions will likely be needed to prevent tinnitus activity from returning owing to deafferentation as its initiating condition.

Mindfulness meditation modulates reward prediction errors in the striatum in a passive conditioning task

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ulrich eKirk

2015-02-01

Full Text Available Reinforcement learning models have demonstrated that phasic activity of dopamine neurons during reward expectation encodes information about the predictability of rewards and cues that predict reward. Evidence indicates that mindfulness-based approaches reduce reward anticipation signal in the striatum to negative and positive incentives suggesting the hypothesis that such training influence basic reward processing. Using a passive conditioning task and fMRI in a group of experienced mindfulness meditators and age-matched controls, we tested the hypothesis that mindfulness meditation influence reward and reward prediction error signals. We found diminished positive and negative prediction error-related blood-oxygen level-dependent (BOLD responses in the putamen in meditators compared with controls. In the meditators, this decrease in striatal BOLD responses to reward prediction was paralleled by increased activity in posterior insula, a primary interoceptive region. Critically, responses in the putamen during early trials of the conditioning procedure (run 1 were elevated in both meditators and controls. These results provide evidence that experienced mindfulness meditators show attenuated reward prediction signals to valenced stimuli, which may be related to interoceptive processes encoded in the posterior insula.

Predicting the biological condition of streams: Use of geospatial indicators of natural and anthropogenic characteristics of watersheds

Science.gov (United States)

Carlisle, D.M.; Falcone, J.; Meador, M.R.

2009-01-01

We developed and evaluated empirical models to predict biological condition of wadeable streams in a large portion of the eastern USA, with the ultimate goal of prediction for unsampled basins. Previous work had classified (i.e., altered vs. unaltered) the biological condition of 920 streams based on a biological assessment of macroinvertebrate assemblages. Predictor variables were limited to widely available geospatial data, which included land cover, topography, climate, soils, societal infrastructure, and potential hydrologic modification. We compared the accuracy of predictions of biological condition class based on models with continuous and binary responses. We also evaluated the relative importance of specific groups and individual predictor variables, as well as the relationships between the most important predictors and biological condition. Prediction accuracy and the relative importance of predictor variables were different for two subregions for which models were created. Predictive accuracy in the highlands region improved by including predictors that represented both natural and human activities. Riparian land cover and road-stream intersections were the most important predictors. In contrast, predictive accuracy in the lowlands region was best for models limited to predictors representing natural factors, including basin topography and soil properties. Partial dependence plots revealed complex and nonlinear relationships between specific predictors and the probability of biological alteration. We demonstrate a potential application of the model by predicting biological condition in 552 unsampled basins across an ecoregion in southeastern Wisconsin (USA). Estimates of the likelihood of biological condition of unsampled streams could be a valuable tool for screening large numbers of basins to focus targeted monitoring of potentially unaltered or altered stream segments. ?? Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2008.

An analysis of seasonal predictability in coupled model forecasts

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Peng, P.; Wang, W. [NOAA, Climate Prediction Center, Washington, DC (United States); Kumar, A. [NOAA, Climate Prediction Center, Washington, DC (United States); NCEP/NWS/NOAA, Climate Prediction Center, Camp Springs, MD (United States)

2011-02-15

In the recent decade, operational seasonal prediction systems based on initialized coupled models have been developed. An analysis of how the predictability of seasonal means in the initialized coupled predictions evolves with lead-time is presented. Because of the short lead-time, such an analysis for the temporal behavior of seasonal predictability involves a mix of both the predictability of the first and the second kind. The analysis focuses on the lead-time dependence of ensemble mean variance, and the forecast spread. Further, the analysis is for a fixed target season of December-January-February, and is for sea surface temperature, rainfall, and 200-mb height. The analysis is based on a large set of hindcasts from an initialized coupled seasonal prediction system. Various aspects of predictability of the first and the second kind are highlighted for variables with long (for example, SST), and fast (for example, atmospheric) adjustment time scale. An additional focus of the analysis is how the predictability in the initialized coupled seasonal predictions compares with estimates based on the AMIP simulations. The results indicate that differences in the set up of AMIP simulations and coupled predictions, for example, representation of air-sea interactions, and evolution of forecast spread from initial conditions do not change fundamental conclusion about the seasonal predictability. A discussion of the analysis presented herein, and its implications for the use of AMIP simulations for climate attribution, and for time-slice experiments to provide regional information, is also included. (orig.)

Initial Development of Four Forest Species in Different Shading Conditions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. C. Silva

2013-07-01

Full Text Available Abstract: Evaluated the initial development through destructive and non-destructive sampling, forest species Adenanthera pavonina, Cassia fistula, Parkia pendula and Hymenolobium petraeum, propagated by seeds at different levels of shading screens black poliefinas (0, 50 and 65% , in the region of Sinop, MT. There were no significant interactions between time and level of shading to any variable. Changes in fresh and dry weight at all levels of shading occurred from 30 DAT. The highest rates of growth were observed in 50% shading to A. pavonina, P. pendula and H. petraeum and 65% shading for C. fistula.Keywords: seedling, growth, physiology, climatic conditions.

Initial conditions of urban permeable surfaces in rainfall-runoff models using Horton’s infiltration

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Davidsen, Steffen; Löwe, Roland; Høegh Ravn, Nanna

2017-01-01

Infiltration is a key process controlling runoff, but varies depending on antecedent conditions. This study provides estimates on initial conditions for urban permeable surfaces via continuous simulation of the infiltration capacity using historical rain data. An analysis of historical rainfall...... records show that accumulated rainfall prior to large rain events does not depend on the return period of the event. Using an infiltration-runoff model we found that for a typical large rain storm, antecedent conditions in general lead to reduced infiltration capacity both for sandy and clayey soils...... and that there is substantial runoff for return periods above 1–10 years....

Smoke composition and predicting relationships for international commercial cigarettes smoked with three machine-smoking conditions.

Science.gov (United States)

Counts, M E; Morton, M J; Laffoon, S W; Cox, R H; Lipowicz, P J

2005-04-01

The study objectives were to determine the effects of smoking machine puffing parameters on mainstream smoke composition and to express those effects as predicting relationships. Forty-eight commercial Philip Morris USA and Philip Morris International cigarettes from international markets and the 1R4F reference cigarette were machine-smoked using smoking conditions defined by the International Organization of Standardization (ISO), the Massachusetts Department of Public Health (MDPH), and Health Canada (HC). Cigarette tobacco fillers were analyzed for nitrate, nicotine, tobacco-specific nitrosamines (TSNA), and ammonia. Mainstream yields for tar and 44 individual smoke constituents and "smoke pH" were determined. Cigarette constituent yields typically increased in the order ISOrelationships were developed between ISO tar and ISO, MDPH, and HC constituent yields and between MDPH tar and HC tar and respective smoking condition yields. MDPH and HC constituent yields could be predicted with similar reliability using ISO tar or the corresponding smoking-condition tar. The reliability of the relationships varied from strong to weak, depending on particular constituents. Weak predicting relationships for nitrogen oxides and TSNA's, for example, were improved with inclusion of tobacco filler composition factors. "Smoke pH" was similar for all cigarettes at any one smoking condition, and overall marginally lower at HC conditions than at ISO or MDPH conditions.

Neural Network Prediction of Translation Initiation Sites in Eukaryotes: Perspectives for EST and Genome analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pedersen, Anders Gorm; Nielsen, Henrik

1997-01-01

Translation in eukaryotes does not always start at the first AUG in an mRNA, implying that context information also plays a role.This makes prediction of translation initiation sites a non-trivial task, especially when analysing EST and genome data where the entire mature mRNA sequence is not known...

Timing of initial arrival at the breeding site predicts age at first reproduction in a long-lived migratory bird

Science.gov (United States)

Becker, Peter H.; Dittmann, Tobias; Ludwigs, Jan-Dieter; Limmer, Bente; Ludwig, Sonja C.; Bauch, Christina; Braasch, Alexander; Wendeln, Helmut

2008-01-01

In long-lived vertebrates, individuals generally visit potential breeding areas or populations during one or more seasons before reproducing for the first time. During these years of prospecting, they select a future breeding site, colony, or mate and improve various skills and their physical condition to meet the requirements of reproduction. One precondition of successful reproduction is arrival in time on the breeding grounds. Here, we study the intricate links among the date of initial spring arrival, body mass, sex, and the age of first breeding in the common tern Sterna hirundo, a long-lived migratory colonial seabird. The study is based on a unique, individual-based, long-term dataset of sexed birds, marked with transponders, which allow recording their individual arrival, overall attendance, and clutch initiation remotely and automatically year by year over the entire lifetime at the natal colony site. We show that the seasonal date of initial arrival at the breeding grounds predicts the individual age at first reproduction, which mostly occurs years later. Late first-time arrivals remain delayed birds throughout subsequent years. Our findings reveal that timing of arrival at the site of reproduction and timing of reproduction itself are coherent parameters of individual quality, which are linked with the prospects of the breeding career and may have consequences for fitness. PMID:18711134

On the appropriate definition of soil profile configuration and initial conditions for land surface–hydrology models in cold regions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G. Sapriza-Azuri

2018-06-01

Full Text Available Arctic and subarctic regions are amongst the most susceptible regions on Earth to global warming and climate change. Understanding and predicting the impact of climate change in these regions require a proper process representation of the interactions between climate, carbon cycle, and hydrology in Earth system models. This study focuses on land surface models (LSMs that represent the lower boundary condition of general circulation models (GCMs and regional climate models (RCMs, which simulate climate change evolution at the global and regional scales, respectively. LSMs typically utilize a standard soil configuration with a depth of no more than 4 m, whereas for cold, permafrost regions, field experiments show that attention to deep soil profiles is needed to understand and close the water and energy balances, which are tightly coupled through the phase change. To address this gap, we design and run a series of model experiments with a one-dimensional LSM, called CLASS (Canadian Land Surface Scheme, as embedded in the MESH (Modélisation Environmentale Communautaire – Surface and Hydrology modelling system, to (1 characterize the effect of soil profile depth under different climate conditions and in the presence of parameter uncertainty; (2 assess the effect of including or excluding the geothermal flux in the LSM at the bottom of the soil column; and (3 develop a methodology for temperature profile initialization in permafrost regions, where the system has an extended memory, by the use of paleo-records and bootstrapping. Our study area is in Norman Wells, Northwest Territories of Canada, where measurements of soil temperature profiles and historical reconstructed climate data are available. Our results demonstrate a dominant role for parameter uncertainty, that is often neglected in LSMs. Considering such high sensitivity to parameter values and dependency on the climate condition, we show that a minimum depth of 20 m is essential to

Maximum Likelihood Method for Predicting Environmental Conditions from Assemblage Composition: The R Package bio.infer

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lester L. Yuan

2007-06-01

Full Text Available This paper provides a brief introduction to the R package bio.infer, a set of scripts that facilitates the use of maximum likelihood (ML methods for predicting environmental conditions from assemblage composition. Environmental conditions can often be inferred from only biological data, and these inferences are useful when other sources of data are unavailable. ML prediction methods are statistically rigorous and applicable to a broader set of problems than more commonly used weighted averaging techniques. However, ML methods require a substantially greater investment of time to program algorithms and to perform computations. This package is designed to reduce the effort required to apply ML prediction methods.

SIMULATION OF CARS ACCUMULATION PROCESSES FOR SOLVING TASKS OF OPERATIONAL PLANNING IN CONDITIONS OF INITIAL INFORMATION UNCERTAINTY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

О. A. Tereshchenko

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Purpose. The article highlights development of the methodological basis for simulation the processes of cars accumulation in solving operational planning problems under conditions of initial information uncertainty for assessing the sustainability of the adopted planning scenario and calculating the associated technological risks. Methodology. The solution of the problem under investigation is based on the use of general scientific approaches, the apparatus of probability theory and the theory of fuzzy sets. To achieve this purpose, the factors influencing the entropy of operational plans are systematized. It is established that when planning the operational work of railway stations, sections and nodes, the most significant factors that cause uncertainty in the initial information are: a external conditions with respect to the railway ground in question, expressed by the uncertainty of the timing of cars arrivals; b external, hard-to-identify goals for the functioning of other participants in the logistics chain (primarily customers, expressed by the uncertainty of the completion time with the freight cars. These factors are suggested to be taken into account in automated planning through statistical analysis – the establishment and study of the remaining time (prediction errors. As a result, analytical dependencies are proposed for rational representation of the probability density functions of the time residual distribution in the form of point, piecewise-defined and continuous analytic models. The developed models of cars accumulation, the application of which depends on the identified states of the predicted incoming car flow to the accumulation system, are presented below. In addition, the last proposed model is a general case of models of accumulation processes with an arbitrary level of reliability of the initial information for any structure of the incoming flow of cars. In conclusion, a technique for estimating the results of

Initial conditions for slow-roll inflation in a random Gaussian landscape

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Masoumi, Ali; Vilenkin, Alexander; Yamada, Masaki, E-mail: ali@cosmos.phy.tufts.edu, E-mail: vilenkin@cosmos.phy.tufts.edu, E-mail: Masaki.Yamada@tufts.edu [Institute of Cosmology, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Tufts University, Medford, MA 02155 (United States)

2017-07-01

In the landscape perspective, our Universe begins with a quantum tunneling from an eternally-inflating parent vacuum, followed by a period of slow-roll inflation. We investigate the tunneling process and calculate the probability distribution for the initial conditions and for the number of e-folds of slow-roll inflation, modeling the landscape by a small-field one-dimensional random Gaussian potential. We find that such a landscape is fully consistent with observations, but the probability for future detection of spatial curvature is rather low, P ∼ 10{sup −3}.

Initial conditions and robust Newton-Raphson for harmonic balance analysis of free-running oscillators

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Virtanen, J.E.; Maten, ter E.J.W.; Beelen, T.G.J.; Honkala, M.; Hulkkonen, M.

2011-01-01

Poor initial conditions for Harmonic Balance (HB) analysis of freerunning oscillators may lead to divergence of the direct Newton-Raphson method or may prevent to find the solution within an optimization approach. We exploit time integration to obtain estimates for the oscillation frequency and for

Prediction of organic combined sewer sediment release and transport

OpenAIRE

Seco, Raquel Irene; Schellart, Alma Neeltje Antonia; Gómez Valentín, Manuel; Tait, Simon

2018-01-01

Accurate predictions of sediment loads released by sewer overflow discharges are important for being able to provide protection to vulnerable receiving waters. These predictions are sensitive to the estimated sediment characteristics and on the site conditions of in-pipe deposit formation. Their application without a detailed analysis and understanding of the initial conditions under which in-sewer deposits were formed normally results in very poor estimations. In this study, in-sewer sedimen...

Greenland Regional and Ice Sheet-wide Geometry Sensitivity to Boundary and Initial conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Logan, L. C.; Narayanan, S. H. K.; Greve, R.; Heimbach, P.

2017-12-01

Ice sheet and glacier model outputs require inputs from uncertainly known initial and boundary conditions, and other parameters. Conservation and constitutive equations formalize the relationship between model inputs and outputs, and the sensitivity of model-derived quantities of interest (e.g., ice sheet volume above floatation) to model variables can be obtained via the adjoint model of an ice sheet. We show how one particular ice sheet model, SICOPOLIS (SImulation COde for POLythermal Ice Sheets), depends on these inputs through comprehensive adjoint-based sensitivity analyses. SICOPOLIS discretizes the shallow-ice and shallow-shelf approximations for ice flow, and is well-suited for paleo-studies of Greenland and Antarctica, among other computational domains. The adjoint model of SICOPOLIS was developed via algorithmic differentiation, facilitated by the source transformation tool OpenAD (developed at Argonne National Lab). While model sensitivity to various inputs can be computed by costly methods involving input perturbation simulations, the time-dependent adjoint model of SICOPOLIS delivers model sensitivities to initial and boundary conditions throughout time at lower cost. Here, we explore both the sensitivities of the Greenland Ice Sheet's entire and regional volumes to: initial ice thickness, precipitation, basal sliding, and geothermal flux over the Holocene epoch. Sensitivity studies such as described here are now accessible to the modeling community, based on the latest version of SICOPOLIS that has been adapted for OpenAD to generate correct and efficient adjoint code.

Reverse engineering of heavy-ion collisions: Unraveling initial conditions from anisotropic flow data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Retinskaya, Ekaterina

2014-01-01

Ultra-Relativistic heavy-ion physics is a promising field of high energy physics connecting two fields: nuclear physics and elementary particle physics. Experimental achievements of the last years have provided an opportunity to study the properties of a new state of matter created in heavy-ion collisions called quark-gluon plasma. The initial state of two colliding nuclei is affected by fluctuations coming from wave- functions of nucleons. These fluctuations lead to the momentum anisotropy of the hadronic matter which is observed by the detectors. The system created in the collision behaves like a fluid, so the initial state is connected to the final state via hydrodynamic evolution. In this thesis we model the evolution with relativistic viscous hydrodynamics. Our results, combined with experimental data, give non trivial constraints on the initial state, thus achieving 'reverse engineering' of the heavy-ion collisions. The observable which characterizes the momentum anisotropy is the anisotropic flow v n . We present the first measurements of the first harmonic of the anisotropic flow called directed flow v 1 in Pb-Pb collisions at the LHC. We then perform the first viscous hydrodynamic modeling of directed flow and show that it is less sensitive to viscosity than higher harmonics. Comparison of these experimental data with the modeling allows to extract the values of the dipole asymmetry of the initial state, which provides constraints on the models of initial states. A prediction for directed flow v 1 in Au-Au collisions is also made for RHIC. We then perform a similar modeling of the second and third harmonics of the anisotropic flow, called respectively elliptic v 2 and triangular v 3 flow. A combined analysis of the elliptic and triangular flow data compared with viscous hydrodynamic calculations allows us to put constraints on initial ellipticity and triangularity of the system. These constraints are then used as a filter for different models of

Initial conditions and robust Newton-Raphson for harmonic balance analysis of free-running oscillators

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Virtanen, J.E.; Maten, ter E.J.W.; Honkala, M.; Hulkkonen, M.; Günther, M.; Bartel, A.; Brunk, M.; Schoeps, S.; Striebel, M.

2012-01-01

Poor initial conditions for Harmonic Balance (HB) analysis of free-running oscillators may lead to divergence of the direct Newton-Raphson method or may prevent to find the solution within an optimization approach. We exploit time integration to obtain estimates for the oscillation frequency and for

Path dependence, initial conditions, and routines in organizations : The Toyota production system re-examined

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Dolfsma, W.A.; van Driel, H.

2009-01-01

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to disentangle and elaborate on the constitutive elements of the concept of path dependence (initial conditions and lock-in) for a concerted and in-depth application to the study of organizational change. Design/methodology/approach - The approach takes the

Initial conditions for cosmological N-body simulations of the scalar sector of theories of Newtonian, Relativistic and Modified Gravity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Valkenburg, Wessel; Hu, Bin

2015-01-01

We present a description for setting initial particle displacements and field values for simulations of arbitrary metric theories of gravity, for perfect and imperfect fluids with arbitrary characteristics. We extend the Zel'dovich Approximation to nontrivial theories of gravity, and show how scale dependence implies curved particle paths, even in the entirely linear regime of perturbations. For a viable choice of Effective Field Theory of Modified Gravity, initial conditions set at high redshifts are affected at the level of up to 5% at Mpc scales, which exemplifies the importance of going beyond Λ-Cold Dark Matter initial conditions for modifications of gravity outside of the quasi-static approximation. In addition, we show initial conditions for a simulation where a scalar modification of gravity is modelled in a Lagrangian particle-like description. Our description paves the way for simulations and mock galaxy catalogs under theories of gravity beyond the standard model, crucial for progress towards precision tests of gravity and cosmology

Numerical Analysis of Rolling Contact Fatigue Crack Initiation and Fatigue Life Prediction of the Railway Crossing

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Xin, L.; Markine, V.L.; Shevtsov, I.

2015-01-01

The procedure for analysing rolling contact fatigue crack initiation and fatigue life prediction of the railway turnout crossing is developed. A three-dimensional finite element (FE) model is used to obtain stress and strain results, considering the dynamic effects of wheel-crossing rolling contact.

Prediction of heat-illness symptoms with the prediction of human vascular response in hot environment under resting condition.

Science.gov (United States)

Aggarwal, Yogender; Karan, Bhuwan Mohan; Das, Barsa Nand; Sinha, Rakesh Kumar

2008-04-01

The thermoregulatory control of human skin blood flow is vital to maintain the body heat storage during challenges of thermal homeostasis under heat stress. Whenever thermal homeostasis disturbed, the heat load exceeds heat dissipation capacity, which alters the cutaneous vascular responses along with other body physiological variables. Whole body skin blood flow has been calculated from the forearm blood flow. Present model has been designed using electronics circuit simulator (Multisim 8.0, National Instruments, USA), is to execute a series of predictive equations for early prediction of physiological parameters of young nude subjects during resting condition at various level of dry heat stress under almost still air to avoid causalities associated with hot environmental. The users can execute the model by changing the environmental temperature in degrees C and exposure time in minutes. The model would be able to predict and detect the changes in human vascular responses along with other physiological parameters and from this predicted values heat related-illness symptoms can be inferred.

Choice of initial conditions in dynamical calculations of distributions of nuclear fission fragments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kosenko, G.I.

1993-01-01

The distribution function in the coordinates and momenta for a fissioning system traversing a barrier is determined in terms of Langevin fluctuation-dissipation dynamics. It is shown that this distribution is best described by the Kramers distribution. The equilibrium distribution can be used as the initial condition, provided that the system is in the overdamping regime. 28 refs., 5 figs., 3 tabs

Coupled prediction of flood response and debris flow initiation during warm- and cold-season events in the Southern Appalachians, USA

Science.gov (United States)

Tao, J.; Barros, A. P.

2014-01-01

Debris flows associated with rainstorms are a frequent and devastating hazard in the Southern Appalachians in the United States. Whereas warm-season events are clearly associated with heavy rainfall intensity, the same cannot be said for the cold-season events. Instead, there is a relationship between large (cumulative) rainfall events independently of season, and thus hydrometeorological regime, and debris flows. This suggests that the dynamics of subsurface hydrologic processes play an important role as a trigger mechanism, specifically through soil moisture redistribution by interflow. We further hypothesize that the transient mass fluxes associated with the temporal-spatial dynamics of interflow govern the timing of shallow landslide initiation, and subsequent debris flow mobilization. The first objective of this study is to investigate this relationship. The second objective is to assess the physical basis for a regional coupled flood prediction and debris flow warning system. For this purpose, uncalibrated model simulations of well-documented debris flows in headwater catchments of the Southern Appalachians using a 3-D surface-groundwater hydrologic model coupled with slope stability models are examined in detail. Specifically, we focus on two vulnerable headwater catchments that experience frequent debris flows, the Big Creek and the Jonathan Creek in the Upper Pigeon River Basin, North Carolina, and three distinct weather systems: an extremely heavy summertime convective storm in 2011; a persistent winter storm lasting several days; and a severe winter storm in 2009. These events were selected due to the optimal availability of rainfall observations; availability of detailed field surveys of the landslides shortly after they occurred, which can be used to evaluate model predictions; and because they are representative of events that cause major economic losses in the region. The model results substantiate that interflow is a useful prognostic of conditions

Decadal predictions of Southern Ocean sea ice : testing different initialization methods with an Earth-system Model of Intermediate Complexity

Science.gov (United States)

Zunz, Violette; Goosse, Hugues; Dubinkina, Svetlana

2013-04-01

The sea ice extent in the Southern Ocean has increased since 1979 but the causes of this expansion have not been firmly identified. In particular, the contribution of internal variability and external forcing to this positive trend has not been fully established. In this region, the lack of observations and the overestimation of internal variability of the sea ice by contemporary General Circulation Models (GCMs) make it difficult to understand the behaviour of the sea ice. Nevertheless, if its evolution is governed by the internal variability of the system and if this internal variability is in some way predictable, a suitable initialization method should lead to simulations results that better fit the reality. Current GCMs decadal predictions are generally initialized through a nudging towards some observed fields. This relatively simple method does not seem to be appropriated to the initialization of sea ice in the Southern Ocean. The present study aims at identifying an initialization method that could improve the quality of the predictions of Southern Ocean sea ice at decadal timescales. We use LOVECLIM, an Earth-system Model of Intermediate Complexity that allows us to perform, within a reasonable computational time, the large amount of simulations required to test systematically different initialization procedures. These involve three data assimilation methods: a nudging, a particle filter and an efficient particle filter. In a first step, simulations are performed in an idealized framework, i.e. data from a reference simulation of LOVECLIM are used instead of observations, herein after called pseudo-observations. In this configuration, the internal variability of the model obviously agrees with the one of the pseudo-observations. This allows us to get rid of the issues related to the overestimation of the internal variability by models compared to the observed one. This way, we can work out a suitable methodology to assess the efficiency of the

In silico platform for predicting and initiating β-turns in a protein at desired locations.

Science.gov (United States)

Singh, Harinder; Singh, Sandeep; Raghava, Gajendra P S

2015-05-01

Numerous studies have been performed for analysis and prediction of β-turns in a protein. This study focuses on analyzing, predicting, and designing of β-turns to understand the preference of amino acids in β-turn formation. We analyzed around 20,000 PDB chains to understand the preference of residues or pair of residues at different positions in β-turns. Based on the results, a propensity-based method has been developed for predicting β-turns with an accuracy of 82%. We introduced a new approach entitled "Turn level prediction method," which predicts the complete β-turn rather than focusing on the residues in a β-turn. Finally, we developed BetaTPred3, a Random forest based method for predicting β-turns by utilizing various features of four residues present in β-turns. The BetaTPred3 achieved an accuracy of 79% with 0.51 MCC that is comparable or better than existing methods on BT426 dataset. Additionally, models were developed to predict β-turn types with better performance than other methods available in the literature. In order to improve the quality of prediction of turns, we developed prediction models on a large and latest dataset of 6376 nonredundant protein chains. Based on this study, a web server has been developed for prediction of β-turns and their types in proteins. This web server also predicts minimum number of mutations required to initiate or break a β-turn in a protein at specified location of a protein. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

INITIAL TEST WELL CONDITIONING AT NOPAL I URANIUM DEPOSIT, SIERRA PENA BLANCA, CHIHUAHUA, MEXICO

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

R.D. Oliver; J.C. Dinsmoor; S.J. Goldstein; I. Reyes; R. De La Garza

2005-07-11

Three test wells, PB-1, PB-2, and PB-3, were drilled at the Nopal I uranium deposit as part of a natural analogue study to evaluate radionuclide transport processes during March-April 2003. The initial pumping to condition the wells was completed during December 2003. The PB-1 well, drilled immediately adjacent to the Nopal I ore body, was continuously cored to a depth of 250 m, terminating 20 m below the top of the measured water level. The PB-2 and PB-3 wells, which were drilled on opposite sides of PB-1 at a radial distance of approximately 40 to 50 m outside of the remaining projected ore body, were also drilled to about 20 m below the top of the measured water level. Each test well was completed with 4-inch (10.2-cm) diameter PVC casing with a slotted liner below the water table. Initial conditioning of all three wells using a submersible pump at low pump rates [less than 1 gallon (3.8 1) per minute] resulted in measurable draw down and recoveries. The greatest drawdown ({approx}15 m) was observed in PB-2, whereas only minor (<1 m) drawdown occurred in PB-3. For PB-1 and PB-2, the water turbidity decreased as the wells were pumped and the pH values decreased, indicating that the contamination from the drilling fluid was reduced as the wells were conditioned. Test wells PB-1 and PB-2 showed increased inflow after several borehole volumes of fluid were removed, but their inflow rates remained less that the pumping rate. Test well PB-3 showed the smallest drawdown and least change in pH and conductivity during initial pumping and quickest recovery with a rise in measured water level after conditioning. The 195 gallons (750 l) of water pumped from PB-3 during conditioning was discharged through a household sponge. That sponge showed measurable gamma radiation, which decayed to background values in less than 12 hours. Preliminary interpretations include filtration of a radioisotope source with a short half-life or of a radioisotope that volatized as the sponge

INITIAL TEST WELL CONDITIONING AT NOPAL I URANIUM DEPOSIT, SIERRA PENA BLANCA, CHIHUAHUA, MEXICO

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oliver, R.D.; Dinsmoor, J.C.; Goldstein, S.J.; Reyes, I.; De La Garza, R.

2005-01-01

Three test wells, PB-1, PB-2, and PB-3, were drilled at the Nopal I uranium deposit as part of a natural analogue study to evaluate radionuclide transport processes during March-April 2003. The initial pumping to condition the wells was completed during December 2003. The PB-1 well, drilled immediately adjacent to the Nopal I ore body, was continuously cored to a depth of 250 m, terminating 20 m below the top of the measured water level. The PB-2 and PB-3 wells, which were drilled on opposite sides of PB-1 at a radial distance of approximately 40 to 50 m outside of the remaining projected ore body, were also drilled to about 20 m below the top of the measured water level. Each test well was completed with 4-inch (10.2-cm) diameter PVC casing with a slotted liner below the water table. Initial conditioning of all three wells using a submersible pump at low pump rates [less than 1 gallon (3.8 1) per minute] resulted in measurable draw down and recoveries. The greatest drawdown (∼15 m) was observed in PB-2, whereas only minor (<1 m) drawdown occurred in PB-3. For PB-1 and PB-2, the water turbidity decreased as the wells were pumped and the pH values decreased, indicating that the contamination from the drilling fluid was reduced as the wells were conditioned. Test wells PB-1 and PB-2 showed increased inflow after several borehole volumes of fluid were removed, but their inflow rates remained less that the pumping rate. Test well PB-3 showed the smallest drawdown and least change in pH and conductivity during initial pumping and quickest recovery with a rise in measured water level after conditioning. The 195 gallons (750 l) of water pumped from PB-3 during conditioning was discharged through a household sponge. That sponge showed measurable gamma radiation, which decayed to background values in less than 12 hours. Preliminary interpretations include filtration of a radioisotope source with a short half-life or of a radioisotope that volatized as the sponge dried

Modeling long period swell in Southern California: Practical boundary conditions from buoy observations and global wave model predictions

Science.gov (United States)

Crosby, S. C.; O'Reilly, W. C.; Guza, R. T.

2016-02-01

Accurate, unbiased, high-resolution (in space and time) nearshore wave predictions are needed to drive models of beach erosion, coastal flooding, and alongshore transport of sediment, biota and pollutants. On highly sheltered shorelines, wave predictions are sensitive to the directions of onshore propagating waves, and nearshore model prediction error is often dominated by uncertainty in offshore boundary conditions. Offshore islands and shoals, and coastline curvature, create complex sheltering patterns over the 250km span of southern California (SC) shoreline. Here, regional wave model skill in SC was compared for different offshore boundary conditions created using offshore buoy observations and global wave model hindcasts (National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration Wave Watch 3, WW3). Spectral ray-tracing methods were used to transform incident offshore swell (0.04-0.09Hz) energy at high directional resolution (1-deg). Model skill is assessed for predictions (wave height, direction, and alongshore radiation stress) at 16 nearshore buoy sites between 2000 and 2009. Model skill using buoy-derived boundary conditions is higher than with WW3-derived boundary conditions. Buoy-driven nearshore model results are similar with various assumptions about the true offshore directional distribution (maximum entropy, Bayesian direct, and 2nd derivative smoothness). Two methods combining offshore buoy observations with WW3 predictions in the offshore boundary condition did not improve nearshore skill above buoy-only methods. A case example at Oceanside harbor shows strong sensitivity of alongshore sediment transport predictions to different offshore boundary conditions. Despite this uncertainty in alongshore transport magnitude, alongshore gradients in transport (e.g. the location of model accretion and erosion zones) are determined by the local bathymetry, and are similar for all predictions.

Tools and techniques for ageing predictions in nuclear reactors through condition monitoring

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Verma, R.M.P.

1994-01-01

To operate the nuclear reactors beyond their design predicted life is gaining importance because of huge replacement and decommissioning costs. But experience shows that nuclear plant safety and reliability may decline in the later years of plant life due to ageing degradation. Ageing of nuclear plant components, structures and systems, if unmitigated reduces their safety margins provided in the design and thus increases risks to public health and safety. These safety margins must be monitored throughout plant service life including any extended life. Condition monitoring of nuclear reactor components/equipment and systems can be done to study the effect of ageing, status of safety margins and effect of corrective and mitigating actions taken. The tools and techniques of condition monitoring are also important in failure trending, predictive maintenance, evaluation of scheduled maintenance, in mitigation of ageing, life extension and reliability studies. (author). 1 fig., 1 annexure

Reduction of damage initiation density in fused silica optics via UV laser conditioning

Science.gov (United States)

Peterson, John E.; Maricle, Stephen M.; Brusasco, Raymond M.; Penetrante, Bernardino M.

2004-03-16

The present invention provides a method for reducing the density of sites on the surface of fused silica optics that are prone to the initiation of laser-induced damage, resulting in optics which have far fewer catastrophic defects and are better capable of resisting optical deterioration upon exposure for a long period of time to a high-power laser beam having a wavelength of about 360 nm or less. The initiation of laser-induced damage is reduced by conditioning the optic at low fluences below levels that normally lead to catastrophic growth of damage. When the optic is then irradiated at its high fluence design limit, the concentration of catastrophic damage sites that form on the surface of the optic is greatly reduced.

A robust model predictive control strategy for improving the control performance of air-conditioning systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huang Gongsheng; Wang Shengwei; Xu Xinhua

2009-01-01

This paper presents a robust model predictive control strategy for improving the supply air temperature control of air-handling units by dealing with the associated uncertainties and constraints directly. This strategy uses a first-order plus time-delay model with uncertain time-delay and system gain to describe air-conditioning process of an air-handling unit usually operating at various weather conditions. The uncertainties of the time-delay and system gain, which imply the nonlinearities and the variable dynamic characteristics, are formulated using an uncertainty polytope. Based on this uncertainty formulation, an offline LMI-based robust model predictive control algorithm is employed to design a robust controller for air-handling units which can guarantee a good robustness subject to uncertainties and constraints. The proposed robust strategy is evaluated in a dynamic simulation environment of a variable air volume air-conditioning system in various operation conditions by comparing with a conventional PI control strategy. The robustness analysis of both strategies under different weather conditions is also presented.

The effect of coronae on leader initiation and development under thunderstorm conditions and in long air gaps

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aleksandrov, N.L.; Bazelyan, E.M.; Carpenter Jr, R.B.; Drabkin, M.M.; Raizer, Yu P.

2001-01-01

The initiation and development of a leader is theoretically studied by considering an electrode which is embedded in a cloud of space charge injected by a corona discharge. The focus is on the initiation of upward lightning from a stationary grounded object in a thundercloud electric field. The main results are also applicable to the leader process in long laboratory air gaps at direct voltage. Simple physical models of non-stationary coronae developing in free space near a solitary stressed sphere and of a leader propagating in the space charge cloud of coronae are suggested. It is shown that the electric field redistribution due to the space charge released by the long corona discharge near the top of a high object hinders the initiation and development of an upward leader from the object in a thundercloud electric field. The conditions for the formation of corona streamers that are required to initiate a leader are derived. The criteria are obtained for a leader to be initiated and propagate in the space charge cloud. A hypothesis is proposed that the streamers are never initiated near the top of a high object under thunderstorm conditions if at ground level there is only a slowly-varying electric field of the thundercloud. The streamers may be induced by the fast-rising electric field of distant downward leaders or intracloud discharges. (author)

A case study of remaining storage life prediction using stochastic filtering with the influence of condition monitoring

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Zhaoqiang; Hu, Changhua; Wang, Wenbin; Zhou, Zhijie; Si, Xiaosheng

2014-01-01

Some systems may spend most of their time in storage, but once needed, must be fully functional. Slow degradation occurs when the system is in storage, so to ensure the functionality of these systems, condition monitoring is usually conducted periodically to check the condition of the system. However, taking the condition monitoring data may require putting the system under real testing situation which may accelerate the degradation, and therefore, shorten the storage life of the system. This paper presents a case study of condition-based remaining storage life prediction for gyros in the inertial navigation system on the basis of the condition monitoring data and the influence of the condition monitoring data taking process. A stochastic-filtering-based degradation model is developed to incorporate both into the prediction of the remaining storage life distribution. This makes the predicted remaining storage life depend on not only the condition monitoring data but also the testing process of taking the condition monitoring data, which the existing prognostic techniques and algorithms did not consider. The presented model is fitted to the real condition monitoring data of gyros testing using the maximum likelihood estimation method for parameter estimation. Comparisons are made with the model without considering the process of taking the condition monitoring data, and the results clearly demonstrate the superiority of the newly proposed model

Predicting Near-Term Water Quality from Satellite Observations of Watershed Conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Weiss, W. J.; Wang, L.; Hoffman, K.; West, D.; Mehta, A. V.; Lee, C.

2017-12-01

Despite the strong influence of watershed conditions on source water quality, most water utilities and water resource agencies do not currently have the capability to monitor watershed sources of contamination with great temporal or spatial detail. Typically, knowledge of source water quality is limited to periodic grab sampling; automated monitoring of a limited number of parameters at a few select locations; and/or monitoring relevant constituents at a treatment plant intake. While important, such observations are not sufficient to inform proactive watershed or source water management at a monthly or seasonal scale. Satellite remote sensing data on the other hand can provide a snapshot of an entire watershed at regular, sub-monthly intervals, helping analysts characterize watershed conditions and identify trends that could signal changes in source water quality. Accordingly, the authors are investigating correlations between satellite remote sensing observations of watersheds and source water quality, at a variety of spatial and temporal scales and lags. While correlations between remote sensing observations and direct in situ measurements of water quality have been well described in the literature, there are few studies that link remote sensing observations across a watershed with near-term predictions of water quality. In this presentation, the authors will describe results of statistical analyses and discuss how these results are being used to inform development of a desktop decision support tool to support predictive application of remote sensing data. Predictor variables under evaluation include parameters that describe vegetative conditions; parameters that describe climate/weather conditions; and non-remote sensing, in situ measurements. Water quality parameters under investigation include nitrogen, phosphorus, organic carbon, chlorophyll-a, and turbidity.

Chimera states and the interplay between initial conditions and non-local coupling

Science.gov (United States)

Kalle, Peter; Sawicki, Jakub; Zakharova, Anna; Schöll, Eckehard

2017-03-01

Chimera states are complex spatio-temporal patterns that consist of coexisting domains of coherent and incoherent dynamics. We study chimera states in a network of non-locally coupled Stuart-Landau oscillators. We investigate the impact of initial conditions in combination with non-local coupling. Based on an analytical argument, we show how the coupling phase and the coupling strength are linked to the occurrence of chimera states, flipped profiles of the mean phase velocity, and the transition from a phase- to an amplitude-mediated chimera state.

XBeach-G: a tool for predicting gravel barrier response to extreme storm conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Masselink, Gerd; Poate, Tim; McCall, Robert; Roelvink, Dano; Russell, Paul; Davidson, Mark

2014-05-01

Gravel beaches protect low-lying back-barrier regions from flooding during storm events and their importance to society is widely acknowledged. Unfortunately, breaching and extensive storm damage has occurred at many gravel sites and this is likely to increase as a result of sea-level rise and enhanced storminess due to climate change. Limited scientific guidance is currently available to provide beach managers with operational management tools to predict the response of gravel beaches to storms. The New Understanding and Prediction of Storm Impacts on Gravel beaches (NUPSIG) project aims to improve our understanding of storm impacts on gravel coastal environments and to develop a predictive capability by modelling these impacts. The NUPSIG project uses a 5-pronged approach to address its aim: (1) analyse hydrodynamic data collected during a proto-type laboratory experiment on a gravel beach; (2) collect hydrodynamic field data on a gravel beach under a range of conditions, including storm waves with wave heights up to 3 m; (3) measure swash dynamics and beach response on 10 gravel beaches during extreme wave conditions with wave heights in excess of 3 m; (4) use the data collected under 1-3 to develop and validate a numerical model to model hydrodynamics and morphological response of gravel beaches under storm conditions; and (5) develop a tool for end-users, based on the model formulated under (4), for predicting storm response of gravel beaches and barriers. The aim of this presentation is to present the key results of the NUPSIG project and introduce the end-user tool for predicting storm response on gravel beaches. The model is based on the numerical model XBeach, and different forcing scenarios (wave and tides), barrier configurations (dimensions) and sediment characteristics are easily uploaded for model simulations using a Graphics User Interface (GUI). The model can be used to determine the vulnerability of gravel barriers to storm events, but can also be

Initiation and inhibition of pitting corrosion on reinforcing steel under natural corrosion conditions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Abd El Wanees, S., E-mail: s_wanees@yahoo.com [Chemistry Department, Faculty of Science, University of Tabuk, Tabuk (Saudi Arabia); Chemistry Department, Faculty of Science, Zagazig University, Zagazig 44519 (Egypt); Bahgat Radwan, A. [Center for Advanced Materials, Qatar University, Doha 2713 (Qatar); Alsharif, M.A. [Chemistry Department, Faculty of Science, University of Tabuk, Tabuk (Saudi Arabia); Abd El Haleem, S.M. [Chemistry Department, Faculty of Science, Zagazig University, Zagazig 44519 (Egypt)

2017-04-01

Initiation and inhibition of pitting corrosion on reinforcing steel in saturated, naturally aerated Ca(OH){sub 2} solutions, under natural corrosion conditions, are followed through measurements of corrosion current, electrochemical impedance spectroscopy and SEM investigation. Induction period for pit initiation and limiting corrosion current for pit propagation are found to depend on aggressive salt anion and cation-types, as well as, concentration. Ammonium chlorides and sulfates are more corrosive than the corresponding sodium salts. Benzotriazole and two of its derivatives are found to be good inhibitors for pitting corrosion of reinforcing steel. Adsorption of these compounds follows a Langmuir adsorption isotherm. The thermodynamic functions ΔE{sup ∗}, ΔH{sup ∗} and ΔS{sup ∗} for pitting corrosion processes in the absence and presence of inhibitor are calculated and discussed. - Highlights: • Cl{sup −} and SO{sub 4} {sup 2-} induce pitting corrosion on passive reinforcing steel. • Initiation and propagation of pitting depend on cation and anion types. • Inhibition is based on adsorption according to Langmuir isotherm.

Decoupling in an expanding universe boundary RG-flow affects initial conditions for inflation

CERN Document Server

Schalm, K; Van der Schaar, J P; Schalm, Koenraad; Shiu, Gary; Schaar, Jan Pieter van der

2004-01-01

We study decoupling in FRW spacetimes, emphasizing a Lagrangian description throughout. To account for the vacuum choice ambiguity in cosmological settings, we introduce an arbitrary boundary action representing the initial conditions. RG flow in these spacetimes naturally affects the boundary interactions. As a consequence the boundary conditions are sensitive to high-energy physics through irrelevant terms in the boundary action. Using scalar field theory as an example, we derive the leading dimension four irrelevant boundary operators. We discuss how the known vacuum choices, e.g. the Bunch-Davies vacuum, appear in the Lagrangian description and square with decoupling. For all choices of boundary conditions encoded by relevant boundary operators, of which the known ones are a subset, backreaction is under control. All, moreover, will generically feel the influence of high-energy physics through irrelevant (dimension four) boundary corrections. Having established a coherent effective field theory framework ...

Rescattering effects on intensity interferometry and initial conditions in relativistic heavy ion collisions

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Yang

The properties of the quark-gluon plasma are being thoroughly studied by utilizing relativistic heavy ion collisions. After its invention in astronomy in the 1950s, intensity interferometry was found to be a robust method to probe the spatial and temporal information of the nuclear collisions also. Although rescattering effects are negligible in elementary particle collisions, it may be very important for heavy ion collisions at RHIC and in the future LHC. Rescattering after production will modify the measured correlation function and make it harder to extract the dynamical information from data. To better understand the data which are dimmed by this final state process, we derive a general formula for intensity interferometry which can calculate rescattering effects easily. The formula can be used both non-relativistically and relativistically. Numerically, we found that rescattering effects on kaon interferometry for RHIC experiments can modify the measured ratio of the outward radius to the sideward radius, which is a sensitive probe to the equation of state, by as large as 15%. It is a nontrivial contribution which should be included to understand the data more accurately. The second part of this thesis is on the initial conditions in relativistic heavy ion collisions. Although relativistic hydrodynamics is successful in explaining many aspects of the data, it is only valid after some finite time after nuclear contact. The results depend on the choice of initial conditions which, so far, have been very uncertain. I describe a formula based on the McLerran-Venugopalan model to compute the initial energy density. The soft gluon fields produced immediately after the overlap of the nuclei can be expanded as a power series of the proper time t. Solving Yang-Mills equations with color current conservation can give us the analytical formulas for the fields. The local color charges on the transverse plane are stochastic variables and have to be taken care of by random

Time dependency of the prediction skill for the North Atlantic subpolar gyre in initialized decadal hindcasts

Science.gov (United States)

Brune, Sebastian; Düsterhus, André; Pohlmann, Holger; Müller, Wolfgang A.; Baehr, Johanna

2017-11-01

We analyze the time dependency of decadal hindcast skill in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre within the time period 1961-2013. We compare anomaly correlation coefficients and temporal interquartile ranges of total upper ocean heat content and sea surface temperature for three differently initialized sets of hindcast simulations with the global coupled model MPI-ESM. All initializations use weakly coupled assimilation with the same full value nudging in the atmospheric component and different assimilation techniques for oceanic temperature and salinity: (1) ensemble Kalman filter assimilating EN4 observations and HadISST data, (2) nudging of anomalies to ORAS4 reanalysis, (3) nudging of full values to ORAS4 reanalysis. We find that hindcast skill depends strongly on the evaluation time period, with higher hindcast skill during strong multiyear trends, especially during the warming in the 1990s and lower hindcast skill in the absence of such trends. Differences between the prediction systems are more pronounced when investigating any 20-year subperiod within the entire hindcast period. In the ensemble Kalman filter initialized hindcasts, we find significant correlation skill for up to 5-8 lead years, albeit along with an overestimation of the temporal interquartile range. In the hindcasts initialized by anomaly nudging, significant correlation skill for lead years greater than two is only found in the 1980s and 1990s. In the hindcasts initialized by full value nudging, correlation skill is consistently lower than in the hindcasts initialized by anomaly nudging in the first lead years with re-emerging skill thereafter. The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation reacts on the density changes introduced by oceanic nudging, this limits the predictability in the subpolar gyre in the first lead years. Overall, we find that a model-consistent assimilation technique can improve hindcast skill. Further, the evaluation of 20 year subperiods within the full hindcast period

Initiation of slug flow

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hanratty, T.J.; Woods, B.D. [Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL (United States)

1995-12-31

The initiation of slug flow in a horizontal pipe can be predicted either by considering the stability of a slug or by considering the stability of a stratified flow. Measurements of the shedding rate of slugs are used to define necessary conditions for the existence of a slug. Recent results show that slugs develop from an unstable stratified flow through the evolution of small wavelength waves into large wavelength waves that have the possibility of growing to form a slug. The mechanism appears to be quite different for fluids with viscosities close to water than for fluids with large viscosities (20 centipoise).

Prediction of thermal sensation in non-air-conditioned buildings in warm climates

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fanger, Povl Ole; Toftum, Jørn

2002-01-01

The PMV model agrees well with high-quality field studies in buildings with HVAC systems, situated in cold, temperate and warm climates, studied during both summer and winter. In non-air-conditioned buildings in warm climates, occupants may sense the warmth as being less severe than the PMV...... predicts. The main reason is low expectations, but a metabolic rate that is estimated too high can also contribute to explaining the difference. An extension of the PMV model that includes an expectancy factor is introduced for use in non-air-conditioned buildings in warm climates. The extended PMV model...... agrees well with quality field studies in non-air-conditioned buildings of three continents....

Incidence of WHO stage 3 and 4 conditions following initiation of anti-retroviral therapy in resource limited settings.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrea J Curtis

Full Text Available OBJECTIVES: To determine the incidence of WHO clinical stage 3 and 4 conditions during early anti-retroviral therapy (ART in resource limited settings (RLS. DESIGN/SETTING: A descriptive analysis of routine program data collected prospectively from 25 Médecins Sans Frontières supported HIV treatment programs in eight countries between 2002 and 2010. SUBJECTS/PARTICIPANTS: 35,349 study participants with median follow-up on ART of 1.33 years (IQR 0.51-2.41. OUTCOME MEASURES: Incidence in 100 person-years of WHO stage 3 or 4 conditions during 5 periods after ART initiation. Diagnoses of conditions were made according to WHO criteria and relied upon clinical assessments supported by basic laboratory investigations. RESULTS: The incidence of any WHO clinical stage 3 or 4 condition over 3 years was 40.02 per 100 person-years (31.77 for stage 3 and 8.25 for stage 4. The incidence of stage 3 and 4 conditions fell by over 97% between months 0-3 and months 25-36 (77.81 to 2.40 for stage 3 and 28.70 to 0.64 for stage 4. During months 0-3 pulmonary tuberculosis was the most common condition diagnosed in adults (incidence 22.24 per 100 person-years and children aged 5-14 years (25.76 and oral candidiasis was the most common in children <5 years (25.79. Overall incidences were higher in Africa compared with Asia (43.98 versus 12.97 for stage 3 and 8.98 versus 7.05 for stage 4 conditions, p<0.001. Pulmonary tuberculosis, weight loss, oral and oesophageal candidiasis, chronic diarrhoea, HIV wasting syndrome and severe bacterial infections were more common in Africa. Extra-pulmonary tuberculosis, non-tuberculous mycobacterial infection, cryptococcosis, penicilliosis and toxoplasmosis were more common in Asia. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of WHO stage 3 and 4 conditions during the early period after ART initiation in RLS is high, but greatly reduces over time. This is likely due to both the benefits of ART and deaths of the sickest patients occurring shortly

Influence of stiffness on CHF for horizontal tubes under LPLF conditions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Baburajan, P.K. [Nuclear Safety Analysis Division, AERB, Niyamak Bhavan, 400094 (India); Bisht, Govind Singh [Department of Mechanical Engineering, IIT Bombay, 400076 (India); Gaikwad, Avinash J. [Nuclear Safety Analysis Division, AERB, Niyamak Bhavan, 400094 (India); Prabhu, S.V., E-mail: svprabhu@iitb.ac.in [Department of Mechanical Engineering, IIT Bombay, 400076 (India)

2014-10-01

Highlights: • Effect of stiffness on the CHF in horizontal tube under LPLF conditions is studied. • CHF increases with the increase in stiffness. • Correlation for the prediction of CHF as a function of stiffness is developed. • Correlation for mass flux at CHF in terms of stiffness and initial mass flux is given. • RELAP5 is capable of predicting the effect of stiffness on CHF. - Abstract: Studies reported in the past on critical heat flux (CHF) are mostly limited to vertical flow, large channel diameter, high pressure and high mass flux. Since horizontal flow is commonly encountered in boiler tubes, refrigerating equipments and nuclear reactor fuel channels (PHWR), there is a need to understand horizontal flow CHF, generate sufficient experimental database and to develop reliable predictive method. Few studies are reported on the effect of upstream flow restrictions on flow instabilities and CHF. The present work investigates the effect of upstream flow restriction on CHF in horizontal flow at near atmospheric pressure conditions. In the present study, stiffness is defined as the ratio of upstream flow restriction pressure drop to the test section pressure drop. The classification of a flow boiling system as soft or stiff on the basis of quantification of the stiffness is attempted. Experimental data shows an increase in the CHF with the increase in the stiffness for a given initial mass flux. A correlation for the prediction of CHF under various stiffness conditions is developed. A correlation is suggested to predict the mass flux at CHF as a function of stiffness and initial mass flux. Modeling and transient analysis of the stiffness effect on CHF is carried out using the thermal hydraulic system code RELAP5. The predicted phenomena are in agreement with the experimental observations.

Reaction-diffusion fronts with inhomogeneous initial conditions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bena, I [Departement de Physique Theorique, Universite de Geneve, CH-1211 Geneva 4 (Switzerland); Droz, M [Departement de Physique Theorique, Universite de Geneve, CH-1211 Geneva 4 (Switzerland); Martens, K [Departement de Physique Theorique, Universite de Geneve, CH-1211 Geneva 4 (Switzerland); Racz, Z [Institute for Theoretical Physics, Eoetvoes University, 1117 Budapest (Hungary)

2007-02-14

Properties of reaction zones resulting from A+B {yields} C type reaction-diffusion processes are investigated by analytical and numerical methods. The reagents A and B are separated initially and, in addition, there is an initial macroscopic inhomogeneity in the distribution of the B species. For simple two-dimensional geometries, exact analytical results are presented for the time evolution of the geometric shape of the front. We also show using cellular automata simulations that the fluctuations can be neglected both in the shape and in the width of the front.

Prediction of as-cast grain size of inoculated aluminum alloys melt solidified under non-isothermal conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Du, Qiang; Li, Yanjun

2015-01-01

In this paper, a multi-scale as-cast grain size prediction model is proposed to predict as-cast grain size of inoculated aluminum alloys melt solidified under non-isothermal condition, i.e., the existence of temperature gradient. Given melt composition, inoculation and heat extraction boundary conditions, the model is able to predict maximum nucleation undercooling, cooling curve, primary phase solidification path and final as-cast grain size of binary alloys. The proposed model has been applied to two Al-Mg alloys, and comparison with laboratory and industrial solidification experimental results have been carried out. The preliminary conclusion is that the proposed model is a promising suitable microscopic model used within the multi-scale casting simulation modelling framework. (paper)

Can phenological models predict tree phenology accurately under climate change conditions?

Science.gov (United States)

Chuine, Isabelle; Bonhomme, Marc; Legave, Jean Michel; García de Cortázar-Atauri, Inaki; Charrier, Guillaume; Lacointe, André; Améglio, Thierry

2014-05-01

The onset of the growing season of trees has been globally earlier by 2.3 days/decade during the last 50 years because of global warming and this trend is predicted to continue according to climate forecast. The effect of temperature on plant phenology is however not linear because temperature has a dual effect on bud development. On one hand, low temperatures are necessary to break bud dormancy, and on the other hand higher temperatures are necessary to promote bud cells growth afterwards. Increasing phenological changes in temperate woody species have strong impacts on forest trees distribution and productivity, as well as crops cultivation areas. Accurate predictions of trees phenology are therefore a prerequisite to understand and foresee the impacts of climate change on forests and agrosystems. Different process-based models have been developed in the last two decades to predict the date of budburst or flowering of woody species. They are two main families: (1) one-phase models which consider only the ecodormancy phase and make the assumption that endodormancy is always broken before adequate climatic conditions for cell growth occur; and (2) two-phase models which consider both the endodormancy and ecodormancy phases and predict a date of dormancy break which varies from year to year. So far, one-phase models have been able to predict accurately tree bud break and flowering under historical climate. However, because they do not consider what happens prior to ecodormancy, and especially the possible negative effect of winter temperature warming on dormancy break, it seems unlikely that they can provide accurate predictions in future climate conditions. It is indeed well known that a lack of low temperature results in abnormal pattern of bud break and development in temperate fruit trees. An accurate modelling of the dormancy break date has thus become a major issue in phenology modelling. Two-phases phenological models predict that global warming should delay

Assessing initial conditions for chloride transport across low-permeability argillaceous rocks, Wellenberg, Switzerland

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Waber, H.N.; Hobbs, M.Y.; Frape, S.K.

2013-01-01

Information about fluid evolution and solute transport in a low-permeability metamorphic rock sequence has been obtained by comparing chloride concentrations and chlorine isotope ratios of pore water, groundwater, and fluid inclusions. The similarity of δ 37 Cl values in fluid inclusions and groundwater suggests a closed-system evolution during the metamorphic overprint, and signatures established at this time appear to form the initial conditions for chloride transport after exhumation of the rock sequence. (authors)

Durability and life prediction modeling in polyimide composites

Science.gov (United States)

Binienda, Wieslaw K.

1995-01-01

Sudden appearance of cracks on a macroscopically smooth surface of brittle materials due to cooling or drying shrinkage is a phenomenon related to many engineering problems. Although conventional strength theories can be used to predict the necessary condition for crack appearance, they are unable to predict crack spacing and depth. On the other hand, fracture mechanics theory can only study the behavior of existing cracks. The theory of crack initiation can be summarized into three conditions, which is a combination of a strength criterion and laws of energy conservation, the average crack spacing and depth can thus be determined. The problem of crack initiation from the surface of an elastic half plane is solved and compares quite well with available experimental evidence. The theory of crack initiation is also applied to concrete pavements. The influence of cracking is modeled by the additional compliance according to Okamura's method. The theoretical prediction by this structural mechanics type of model correlates very well with the field observation. The model may serve as a theoretical foundation for future pavement joint design. The initiation of interactive cracks of quasi-brittle material is studied based on a theory of cohesive crack model. These cracks may grow simultaneously, or some of them may close during certain stages. The concept of crack unloading of cohesive crack model is proposed. The critical behavior (crack bifurcation, maximum loads) of the cohesive crack model are characterized by rate equations. The post-critical behavior of crack initiation is also studied.

Elements of a pragmatic approach for dealing with bias and uncertainty in experiments through predictions : experiment design and data conditioning; %22real space%22 model validation and conditioning; hierarchical modeling and extrapolative prediction.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Romero, Vicente Jose

2011-11-01

This report explores some important considerations in devising a practical and consistent framework and methodology for utilizing experiments and experimental data to support modeling and prediction. A pragmatic and versatile 'Real Space' approach is outlined for confronting experimental and modeling bias and uncertainty to mitigate risk in modeling and prediction. The elements of experiment design and data analysis, data conditioning, model conditioning, model validation, hierarchical modeling, and extrapolative prediction under uncertainty are examined. An appreciation can be gained for the constraints and difficulties at play in devising a viable end-to-end methodology. Rationale is given for the various choices underlying the Real Space end-to-end approach. The approach adopts and refines some elements and constructs from the literature and adds pivotal new elements and constructs. Crucially, the approach reflects a pragmatism and versatility derived from working many industrial-scale problems involving complex physics and constitutive models, steady-state and time-varying nonlinear behavior and boundary conditions, and various types of uncertainty in experiments and models. The framework benefits from a broad exposure to integrated experimental and modeling activities in the areas of heat transfer, solid and structural mechanics, irradiated electronics, and combustion in fluids and solids.

Coupled prediction of flood response and debris flow initiation during warm and cold season events in the Southern Appalachians, USA

Science.gov (United States)

Tao, J.; Barros, A. P.

2013-07-01

Debris flows associated with rainstorms are a frequent and devastating hazard in the Southern Appalachians in the United States. Whereas warm season events are clearly associated with heavy rainfall intensity, the same cannot be said for the cold season events. Instead, there is a relationship between large (cumulative) rainfall events independently of season, and thus hydrometeorological regime, and debris flows. This suggests that the dynamics of subsurface hydrologic processes play an important role as a trigger mechanism, specifically through soil moisture redistribution by interflow. The first objective of this study is to investigate this hypothesis. The second objective is to assess the physical basis for a regional coupled flood prediction and debris flow warning system. For this purpose, uncalibrated model simulations of well-documented debris flows in headwater catchments of the Southern Appalachians using a 3-D surface-groundwater hydrologic model coupled with slope stability models are examined in detail. Specifically, we focus on two vulnerable headwater catchments that experience frequent debris flows, the Big Creek and the Jonathan Creek in the Upper Pigeon River Basin, North Carolina, and three distinct weather systems: an extremely heavy summertime convective storm in 2011; a persistent winter storm lasting several days; and a severe winter storm in 2009. These events were selected due to the optimal availability of rainfall observations, availability of detailed field surveys of the landslides shortly after they occurred, which can be used to evaluate model predictions, and because they are representative of events that cause major economic losses in the region. The model results substantiate that interflow is a useful prognostic of conditions necessary for the initiation of slope instability, and should therefore be considered explicitly in landslide hazard assessments. Moreover, the relationships between slope stability and interflow are

Study on the fatigue crack initiation life under spherical contact

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cho, Yong Joo; Kim, Tae Wan [Busan National Univ., Busan (Korea, Republic of); Lee, Mun Ju [Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd., Suwon (Korea, Republic of)

2001-08-01

In case of contact fatigue, the accurate calculation of surface tractions and subsurface stress is essential to the prediction of crack initiation life. Surface tractions influencing shear stress amplitude have been obtained by contact analysis based on influence function. Subsurface stress has been obtained by using rectangular patch solutions. In this study, to simulate asperity contact under sliding condition, the tip of asperity was simulated by sphere and to calculate crack initiation life in the substrate, dislocation pileup theory was used.

Study on the fatigue crack initiation life under spherical contact

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cho, Yong Joo; Kim, Tae Wan; Lee, Mun Ju

2001-01-01

In case of contact fatigue, the accurate calculation of surface tractions and subsurface stress is essential to the prediction of crack initiation life. Surface tractions influencing shear stress amplitude have been obtained by contact analysis based on influence function. Subsurface stress has been obtained by using rectangular patch solutions. In this study, to simulate asperity contact under sliding condition, the tip of asperity was simulated by sphere and to calculate crack initiation life in the substrate, dislocation pileup theory was used

Regulatory T cells predict the time to initial treatment in early stage chronic lymphocytic leukemia.

Science.gov (United States)

Weiss, Lukas; Melchardt, Thomas; Egle, Alexander; Grabmer, Christoph; Greil, Richard; Tinhofer, Inge

2011-05-15

Early stage chronic lymphocytic leukemia is characterized by a highly variable course of disease. Because it is believed that regulatory T cells (T(regs) ) are potent suppressors of antitumor immunity, the authors hypothesized that increased T(regs) may favor disease progression. T(reg) levels (cluster of differentiation 3 [CD3]-positive, [CD4]-positive, CD25-positive, and CD127-negative) in peripheral blood from 102 patients were analyzed by flow cytometry. Statistical analysis was used to evaluate correlations with clinical data. The relative T(reg) numbers in CD4-positive T cells were significantly greater in patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia compared with the numbers in a control group of 170 healthy individuals (P = .001). Patients were divided into 2 groups using a median T(reg) value of 9.7% (the percentage of CD4-positive T cells). Patients with higher T(reg) levels had a significantly shorter time to initial treatment (median, 5.9 years) compared with patients who had lower T(reg) levels (median, 11.7 years; log-rank P = .019). Furthermore, T(reg) levels (the percentage of CD4-positive T cells) had significant prognostic power to predict the time to initial treatment in univariate analysis (P = .023) and in multivariate Cox regression analysis that included the variables Rai stage, immunoglobulin heavy-chain variable region gene mutational status, chromosomal aberrations, and CD38 expression (P = .028). Higher T(reg) levels had significant and independent prognostic power for predicting the time to initial treatment in patients with low to intermediate stage chronic lymphocytic leukemia. 2010 American Cancer Society.

Semiclassical modelling of finite-pulse effects on non-adiabatic photodynamics via initial condition filtering: The predissociation of NaI as a test case

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Martínez-Mesa, Aliezer [Departmento de Física Teórica, Universidad de la Habana, San Lázaro y L, La Habana 10400 (Cuba); Institut für Chemie, Universität Potsdam, Karl-Liebknecht-Strasse 24-25, D-14476 Potsdam-Golm (Germany); Saalfrank, Peter [Institut für Chemie, Universität Potsdam, Karl-Liebknecht-Strasse 24-25, D-14476 Potsdam-Golm (Germany)

2015-05-21

Femtosecond-laser pulse driven non-adiabatic spectroscopy and dynamics in molecular and condensed phase systems continue to be a challenge for theoretical modelling. One of the main obstacles is the “curse of dimensionality” encountered in non-adiabatic, exact wavepacket propagation. A possible route towards treating complex molecular systems is via semiclassical surface-hopping schemes, in particular if they account not only for non-adiabatic post-excitation dynamics but also for the initial optical excitation. One such approach, based on initial condition filtering, will be put forward in what follows. As a simple test case which can be compared with exact wavepacket dynamics, we investigate the influence of the different parameters determining the shape of a laser pulse (e.g., its finite width and a possible chirp) on the predissociation dynamics of a NaI molecule, upon photoexcitation of the A(0{sup +}) state. The finite-pulse effects are mapped into the initial conditions for semiclassical surface-hopping simulations. The simulated surface-hopping diabatic populations are in qualitative agreement with the quantum mechanical results, especially concerning the subpicosend photoinduced dynamics, the main deviations being the relative delay of the non-adiabatic transitions in the semiclassical picture. Likewise, these differences in the time-dependent electronic populations calculated via the semiclassical and the quantum methods are found to have a mild influence on the overall probability density distribution. As a result, the branching ratios between the bound and the dissociative reaction channels and the time-evolution of the molecular wavepacket predicted by the semiclassical method agree with those computed using quantum wavepacket propagation. Implications for more challenging molecular systems are given.

Do personality traits predict outcome of psychodynamically oriented psychosomatic inpatient treatment beyond initial symptoms?

Science.gov (United States)

Steinert, Christiane; Klein, Susanne; Leweke, Frank; Leichsenring, Falk

2015-03-01

Whether personality characteristics have an impact on treatment outcome is an important question in psychotherapy research. One of the most common approaches for the description of personality is the five-factor model of personality. Only few studies investigated whether patient personality as measured with the NEO-Five-Factor Inventory (NEO-FFI, Costa & McCrae [1992b]. Revised NEO-PI-R and NEO-FFI. Professional manual. Odessa, FL: Psychological Assessment Recources) predicts outcome. Results were inconsistent. Studies reporting personality to be predictive of outcome did not control for baseline symptoms, while studies controlling initial symptoms could not support these findings. We hypothesized that after taking into account baseline symptoms, the NEO-FFI would not predict outcome and tested this in a large sample of inpatients at a psychosomatic clinic. Naturalistic, non-controlled study using patients' data for multiple regression analysis to identify predictors of outcome. Data of 254 inpatients suffering primarily from depressive, anxiety, stress, and somatoform disorders were analysed. Personality was assessed at the beginning of therapy. For psychotherapy outcome, changes in anxiety and depression (Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale; HADS), overall psychopathology (Symptom Checklist-90-R Global Severity Index [GSI]), and interpersonal problems (Inventory of Interpersonal Problems; IIP) were measured. The treatment resulted in significant decreases on all outcome measures corresponding to moderate to large effect sizes (HADS: d = 1.03; GSI: d = 0.90; IIP: d = 0.38). Consistent with our hypothesis, none of the personality domains predicted outcome when baseline symptoms were controlled for. Personality assessment at baseline does not seem to have an added value in the prediction of inpatient psychotherapy outcome beyond initial symptoms. Clinical implications Personality dimensions overlap with symptomatic distress. Rather than serve as predictors of

Influence of Met-Ocean Condition Forecasting Uncertainties on Weather Window Predictions for Offshore Operations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gintautas, Tomas; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

2017-01-01

The article briefly presents a novel methodology of weather window estimation for offshore operations and mainly focuses on effects of met-ocean condition forecasting uncertainties on weather window predictions when using the proposed methodology. It is demonstrated that the proposed methodology...... to include stochastic variables, representing met-ocean forecasting uncertainties and the results of such modification are given in terms of predicted weather windows for a selected test case....

Prediction and Monitoring of Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillations over Indian Monsoon Region in an Ensemble Prediction System using CFSv2

Science.gov (United States)

Borah, Nabanita; Sukumarpillai, Abhilash; Sahai, Atul Kumar; Chattopadhyay, Rajib; Joseph, Susmitha; De, Soumyendu; Nath Goswami, Bhupendra; Kumar, Arun

2014-05-01

An ensemble prediction system (EPS) is devised for the extended range prediction (ERP) of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (MISO) of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) using NCEP Climate Forecast System model version2 at T126 horizontal resolution. The EPS is formulated by producing 11 member ensembles through the perturbation of atmospheric initial conditions. The hindcast experiments were conducted at every 5-day interval for 45 days lead time starting from 16th May to 28th September during 2001-2012. The general simulation of ISM characteristics and the ERP skill of the proposed EPS at pentad mean scale are evaluated in the present study. Though the EPS underestimates both the mean and variability of ISM rainfall, it simulates the northward propagation of MISO reasonably well. It is found that the signal-to-noise ratio becomes unity by about18 days and the predictability error saturates by about 25 days. Though useful deterministic forecasts could be generated up to 2nd pentad lead, significant correlations are observed even up to 4th pentad lead. The skill in predicting large-scale MISO, which is assessed by comparing the predicted and observed MISO indices, is found to be ~17 days. It is noted that the prediction skill of actual rainfall is closely related to the prediction of amplitude of large scale MISO as well as the initial conditions related to the different phases of MISO. Categorical prediction skills reveals that break is more skillfully predicted, followed by active and then normal. The categorical probability skill scores suggest that useful probabilistic forecasts could be generated even up to 4th pentad lead.

Assessing initial conditions for chloride transport across low-permeability argillaceous rocks, Wellenberg, Switzerland

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Waber, H.N. [Rock-Water Interaction Group, Institute of Geological Sciences, University of Bern, Baltzerstrasse 1-3, 3012 Bern (Switzerland); Hobbs, M.Y. [Rock-Water Interaction Group, Institute of Geological Sciences, University of Bern, Baltzerstrasse 1-3, 3012 Bern (Switzerland); Nuclear Waste Management Organization (NWMO), 22 St. Clair Avenue East, M4T 2S3 Toronto, Ontario (Canada); Frape, S.K. [Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario (Canada)

2013-07-01

Information about fluid evolution and solute transport in a low-permeability metamorphic rock sequence has been obtained by comparing chloride concentrations and chlorine isotope ratios of pore water, groundwater, and fluid inclusions. The similarity of δ{sup 37}Cl values in fluid inclusions and groundwater suggests a closed-system evolution during the metamorphic overprint, and signatures established at this time appear to form the initial conditions for chloride transport after exhumation of the rock sequence. (authors)

Prediction of Cyclists Movement in Different Terrain Conditions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A/L V.Nagarrettinam Mahesh

2018-01-01

Full Text Available In Malaysia, most of the accidents involving a bicycle and another vehicle are due to either the driver or rider ‘failing to look properly’. This is more significant with the government initiatives to support the use of bicycle making the carbon-free environment, a vision of TN50. This research addresses the safety aspect of the cyclists in terms of the driver’s point of view which improves cyclist visibility during driving. The proposed helmet system implements a rule-based algorithm which predicts the turning and braking movement of the cyclists. With this system, additional illumination and signaling are provided for the cyclists. The major challenge faced is the implementation of an algorithm for various situations of cycling. To ensure the system could be used on the road, the accuracy and speed of the automatic signaling system need to adhere. Situations that affects the output of the indicators include bicycle speed, the angle of turning, body tilt, duration of turn and random body movements. This paper implements a 3-axis accelerometer and a microcontroller in a data logger to acquire the required data which are analyzed in MATLAB. Using filtering technique, the acquired data are then be cleaned to remove noise due to vibration during cycling. The characteristics of braking and turning are then analyzed in the time domain as well as frequency domain to ensure the optimum algorithm used for gesture recognition and movement prediction. The algorithm is based on sliding window, FFT and threshold-based rule algorithm. The output based on the rule-based algorithm then illuminate the corresponding signals which provide the safety feature of the system.

Comparison of particle-wall interaction boundary conditions in the prediction of cyclone collection efficiency in computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Valverde Ramirez, M.; Coury, J.R.; Goncalves, J.A.S.

2009-01-01

In recent years, many computational fluid dynamics (CFD) studies have appeared attempting to predict cyclone pressure drop and collection efficiency. While these studies have been able to predict pressure drop well, they have been only moderately successful in predicting collection efficiency. Part of the reason for this failure has been attributed to the relatively simple wall boundary conditions implemented in the commercially available CFD software, which are not capable of accurately describing the complex particle-wall interaction present in a cyclone. According, researches have proposed a number of different boundary conditions in order to improve the model performance. This work implemented the critical velocity boundary condition through a user defined function (UDF) in the Fluent software and compared its predictions both with experimental data and with the predictions obtained when using Fluent's built-in boundary conditions. Experimental data was obtained from eight laboratory scale cyclones with varying geometric ratios. The CFD simulations were made using the software Fluent 6.3.26. (author)

Progression of trunk imbalance in adolescent idiopathic scoliosis with a thoracolumbar/lumbar curve: is it predictable at the initial visit?

Science.gov (United States)

Hwang, Chang Ju; Lee, Choon Sung; Lee, Dong-Ho; Cho, Jae Hwan

2017-11-01

OBJECTIVE Progression of trunk imbalance is an important finding during follow-up of patients with adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS). Nevertheless, no factors that predict progression of trunk imbalance have been identified. The purpose of this study was to identify parameters that predict progression of trunk imbalance in cases of AIS with a structural thoracolumbar/lumbar (TL/L) curve. METHODS This study included 105 patients with AIS and a structural TL/L curve who were followed up at an outpatient clinic. Patients with trunk imbalance (trunk shift ≥ 20 mm) at the initial visit were excluded. All patients were followed up for more than 2 years. Patients were divided into the following groups according to progression of trunk imbalance: 1) Group P, trunk shift ≥ 20 mm at the final visit and degree of progression ≥ 10 mm; and 2) Group NP, trunk shift imbalance with progression ≥ 10 mm at the final visit (Group P). Multivariate logistic regression analysis identified a lower Risser grade (p = 0.002) and a greater initial AVR (p = 0.020) as predictors of progressive trunk imbalance. A change in LEV tilt during follow-up was associated with trunk imbalance (p = 0.001). CONCLUSIONS Risser grade and AVR measured at the initial visit may predict progression of trunk imbalance. Surgeons should consider the risk of progressive trunk imbalance if patients show skeletal immaturity and a greater AVR at the initial visit.

Scientific basis for long-term prediction of waste-form performance under repository conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mendel, J.E.

1982-10-01

This paper presents an overview of the fundamental principles involved in predicting long-term performance of waste forms by the as-low-as-reasonably-achievable approach. Repository conditions which make up the waste-form environment, the aging of the waste form, the important radionuclides in the waste form, the chemistry of repository fluids, and multicomponent interactions testing were considered in order to describe these principles. The need for confidence limits on the prediction of waste-form performance and ways of achieving a definition of the confidence limits are discussed

Validation of a model for predicting smear-positive active pulmonary tuberculosis in patients with initial acid-fast bacilli smear-negative sputum

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yeh, Jun-Jun [Department of Chest Medicine, Section of Thoracic Imaging, Ditmanson Medical Foundation Chia-Yi Christian Hospital, Chiayi City (China); Chia Nan University of Pharmacy and Science, Tainan (China); Meiho University, Pingtung (China); Pingtung Christian Hospital, Pingtung (China); Heng Chun Christian Hospital, Pingtung (China)

2018-01-15

The objective of this study was to develop a predictive model for final smear-positive (SP) active pulmonary tuberculosis (aPTB) in patients with initial negative acid fast bacilli (AFB) sputum smears (iSN-SP-aPTB) based on high-resolution computed tomography (HRCT). Eighty (126, 21) patients of iSN-SP-aPTB and 402 (459, 876) patients of non-initial positive acid fast bacilli (non-iSP) pulmonary disease without iSN-SP-aPTB were included in a derivation (validation, prospective) cohort. HRCT characteristics were analysed, and multivariable regression and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was performed to develop a score predictive of iSN-SP-aPTB. The derivation cohort showed clusters of nodules/mass of the right upper lobe or left upper lobe were independent predictors of iSN-SP-aPTB, while bronchiectasis in the right middle lobe or left lingual lobe were negatively associated with iSN-SP-aPTB. A predictive score for iSN-SP-aPTB based on these findings was tested in the validation and prospective cohorts. With an ideal cut-off score = 1, the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of the prediction model were 87.5% (90%, 90.5%), 99% (97.1%, 98.4%), 94.6% (81.3%, 57.5%), and 97.6% (97%, 99.8%) in the derivation (validation, prospective) cohorts, respectively. The model may help identify iSN-SP-aPTB among patients with non-iSP pulmonary diseases. circle Smear-positive active pulmonary tuberculosis that is initial smear-negative (iSN-SP-aPTB) is infectious. (orig.)

Skill of a global seasonal streamflow forecasting system, relative roles of initial conditions and meteorological forcing

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Candogan Yossef, N.; Winsemius, H.C.; Weerts, A.; Van Beek, R.; Bierkens, M.F.P.

2013-01-01

We investigate the relative contributions of initial conditions (ICs) and meteorological forcing (MF) to the skill of the global seasonal streamflow forecasting system FEWS-World, using the global hydrological model PCRaster Global Water Balance. Potential improvement in forecasting skill through

Star-sensor-based predictive Kalman filter for satelliteattitude estimation

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

林玉荣; 邓正隆

2002-01-01

A real-time attitude estimation algorithm, namely the predictive Kalman filter, is presented. This algorithm can accurately estimate the three-axis attitude of a satellite using only star sensor measurements. The implementation of the filter includes two steps: first, predicting the torque modeling error, and then estimating the attitude. Simulation results indicate that the predictive Kalman filter provides robust performance in the presence of both significant errors in the assumed model and in the initial conditions.

Prospective versus predictive control in timing of hitting a falling ball.

Science.gov (United States)

Katsumata, Hiromu; Russell, Daniel M

2012-02-01

Debate exists as to whether humans use prospective or predictive control to intercept an object falling under gravity (Baurès et al. in Vis Res 47:2982-2991, 2007; Zago et al. in Vis Res 48:1532-1538, 2008). Prospective control involves using continuous information to regulate action. τ, the ratio of the size of the gap to the rate of gap closure, has been proposed as the information used in guiding interceptive actions prospectively (Lee in Ecol Psychol 10:221-250, 1998). This form of control is expected to generate movement modulation, where variability decreases over the course of an action based upon more accurate timing information. In contrast, predictive control assumes that a pre-programmed movement is triggered at an appropriate criterion timing variable. For a falling object it is commonly argued that an internal model of gravitational acceleration is used to predict the motion of the object and determine movement initiation. This form of control predicts fixed duration movements initiated at consistent time-to-contact (TTC), either across conditions (constant criterion operational timing) or within conditions (variable criterion operational timing). The current study sought to test predictive and prospective control hypotheses by disrupting continuous visual information of a falling ball and examining consistency in movement initiation and duration, and evidence for movement modulation. Participants (n = 12) batted a ball dropped from three different heights (1, 1.3 and 1.5 m), under both full-vision and partial occlusion conditions. In the occlusion condition, only the initial ball drop and the final 200 ms of ball flight to the interception point could be observed. The initiation of the swing did not occur at a consistent TTC, τ, or any other timing variable across drop heights, in contrast with previous research. However, movement onset was not impacted by occluding the ball flight for 280-380 ms. This finding indicates that humans did not

Prediction suppression in monkey inferotemporal cortex depends on the conditional probability between images.

Science.gov (United States)

Ramachandran, Suchitra; Meyer, Travis; Olson, Carl R

2016-01-01

When monkeys view two images in fixed sequence repeatedly over days and weeks, neurons in area TE of the inferotemporal cortex come to exhibit prediction suppression. The trailing image elicits only a weak response when presented following the leading image that preceded it during training. Induction of prediction suppression might depend either on the contiguity of the images, as determined by their co-occurrence and captured in the measure of joint probability P(A,B), or on their contingency, as determined by their correlation and as captured in the measures of conditional probability P(A|B) and P(B|A). To distinguish between these possibilities, we measured prediction suppression after imposing training regimens that held P(A,B) constant but varied P(A|B) and P(B|A). We found that reducing either P(A|B) or P(B|A) during training attenuated prediction suppression as measured during subsequent testing. We conclude that prediction suppression depends on contingency, as embodied in the predictive relations between the images, and not just on contiguity, as embodied in their co-occurrence. Copyright © 2016 the American Physiological Society.

Experiment prediction for LOFT nuclear experiments L5-1/L8-2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen, T.H.; Modro, S.M.

1982-01-01

The LOFT Experiments L5-1 and L8-2 simulated intermediate break loss-of-coolant accidents with core uncovery. This paper compares the predictions with the measured data for these experiments. The RELAP5 code was used to perform best estimate double-blind and single-blind predictions. The double-blind calculations are performed prior to the experiment and use specified nominal initial and boundary conditions. The single-blind calculations are performed after the experiment and use measured initial and boundary conditions while maintaining all other parameters constant, including the code version. Comparisons of calculated results with experimental results are discussed; the possible causes of discrepancies are explored and explained. RELAP5 calculated system pressure, mass inventory, and fuel cladding temperature agree reasonably well with the experiment results, and only slight changes are noted between the double-blind and single-blind predictions

Fast core prediction simulator for load follow control

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yim, Man Sung; Lee, Sang Hoon; Lee, Un Chul

1990-01-01

An operator-assisting system for the reactor core control under power changing operating condition was developed. The system is consisted of core simulator routine and Xenon and Iodine initial condition generation routine. The initial condition generation routine, without exactly knowing the core status, is capable of providing accurate number densities and axial offset conditions of Xenon and Iodine after several hours of predictor- corrector calculations using the plant instrumentation signals of power level and power axial offset. The core simulator routine, even with the two node core model, gives equivalently accurate results as the one-dimensional model for the core behaviour simulation under power changing condition and can provide proper control strategies for load follow operation. The core simulator can also be used by the operator to develop remedial actions to restore the distorted power distribution by using its prediction capability

Bio-predictive tablet disintegration: effect of water diffusivity, fluid flow, food composition and test conditions.

Science.gov (United States)

Radwan, Asma; Wagner, Manfred; Amidon, Gordon L; Langguth, Peter

2014-06-16

Food intake may delay tablet disintegration. Current in vitro methods have little predictive potential to account for such effects. The effect of a variety of factors on the disintegration of immediate release tablets in the gastrointestinal tract has been identified. They include viscosity of the media, precipitation of food constituents on the surface of the tablet and reduction of water diffusivity in the media as well as changes in the hydrodynamics in the surrounding media of the solid dosage form. In order to improve the predictability of food affecting the disintegration of a dosage form, tablet disintegration in various types of a liquefied meal has been studied under static vs. dynamic (agitative) conditions. Viscosity, water diffusivity, osmolality and Reynolds numbers for the different media were characterized. A quantitative model is introduced which predicts the influence of the Reynolds number in the tablet disintegration apparatus on the disintegration time. Viscosity, water diffusivity and media flow velocity are shown to be important factors affecting dosage form disintegration. The results suggest the necessity of considering these parameters when designing a predictive model for simulating the in vivo conditions. Based on these experiments and knowledge on in vivo hydrodynamics in the GI tract, it is concluded that the disintegration tester under current pharmacopoeial conditions is operated in an unphysiological mode and no bioprediction may be derived. Recommendations regarding alternative mode of operation are made. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Hydrometeorological threshold conditions for debris flow initiation in Norway

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

N. K. Meyer

2012-10-01

Full Text Available Debris flows, triggered by extreme precipitation events and rapid snow melt, cause considerable damage to the Norwegian infrastructure every year. To define intensity-duration (ID thresholds for debris flow initiation critical water supply conditions arising from intensive rainfall or snow melt were assessed on the basis of daily hydro-meteorological information for 502 documented debris flow events. Two threshold types were computed: one based on absolute ID relationships and one using ID relationships normalized by the local precipitation day normal (PDN. For each threshold type, minimum, medium and maximum threshold values were defined by fitting power law curves along the 10th, 50th and 90th percentiles of the data population. Depending on the duration of the event, the absolute threshold intensities needed for debris flow initiation vary between 15 and 107 mm day⁻¹. Since the PDN changes locally, the normalized thresholds show spatial variations. Depending on location, duration and threshold level, the normalized threshold intensities vary between 6 and 250 mm day⁻¹. The thresholds obtained were used for a frequency analysis of over-threshold events giving an estimation of the exceedance probability and thus potential for debris flow events in different parts of Norway. The absolute thresholds are most often exceeded along the west coast, while the normalized thresholds are most frequently exceeded on the west-facing slopes of the Norwegian mountain ranges. The minimum thresholds derived in this study are in the range of other thresholds obtained for regions with a climate comparable to Norway. Statistics reveal that the normalized threshold is more reliable than the absolute threshold as the former shows no spatial clustering of debris flows related to water supply events captured by the threshold.

Robust and predictive fuzzy key performance indicators for condition-based treatment of squats in railway infrastructures

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Jamshidi, A.; Nunez Vicencio, Alfredo; Dollevoet, R.P.B.J.; Li, Z.

2017-01-01

This paper presents a condition-based treatment methodology for a type of rail surface defect called squat. The proposed methodology is based on a set of robust and predictive fuzzy key performance indicators. A fuzzy Takagi-Sugeno interval model is used to predict squat evolution for different

Leading-Edge Noise Prediction of General Airfoil Profiles with Spanwise-Varying Inflow Conditions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Miotto, Renato Fuzaro; Wolf, William Roberto; De Santana, Leandro Dantas

2018-01-01

This paper presents a study of the leading-edge noise radiated by an airfoil undergoing a turbulent inflow. The noise prediction of generic airfoil profiles subjected to spanwise-varying inflow conditions is performed with the support of Amiet’s theory and the inverse strip technique. In the

Leading-Edge Noise Prediction of General Airfoil Profiles with Spanwise-Varying Inflow Conditions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Miotto, Renato Fuzaro; Wolf, William Roberto; De Santana, Leandro Dantas

This paper presents a study of the leading-edge noise radiated by an airfoil undergoing a turbulent inflow. The noise prediction of generic airfoil profiles subjected to spanwise-varying inflow conditions is performed with the support of Amiet’s theory and the inverse strip technique. In the

Revisiting the false alarm in the 2014 El Niño prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Shin, C. S.; Huang, B.

2016-12-01

In early 2014, most dynamic forecast models predicted a developing strong El Niño in the following winter. However, this forecast turned out to be a representative case of the false alarms since 2000. In this study, a set of CFSv2 ensemble seasonal reforecast is conducted to examine some possible causes of the unrealistic El Niño prediction in 2014. Zooming in on the NINO3.4 index, the ensemble-mean reforecast initialized in April 2014 predicted a very strong El Niño as the 1997-98 one with most ensemble members warmer than the observations. In contrast, the ensemble-mean reforecast initialized in January (July) 2014 predicted a slower growth (a decline) of the NINO3.4 index for 12-month lead (from November to the spring in 2015), with the spreads of the ensemble members enveloping the observations. Since the observed SST anomalies in equatorial eastern Pacific changed its polarity in late March from the coldest SST anomalies in February accompanied by strong easterly wind to warmer SST in mid April, the atmospheric and oceanic instantaneous initial states in early April 2014 may misrepresent these intra-seasonal variations, possibly resulting in warm bias in equatorial Pacific even at 0-month lead. Our experiments show that colder ocean surface initial conditions in tropical eastern Pacific tend to hinder developing warm SST anomalies in equatorial eastern Pacific and weaken the Bjerknes-type air-sea feedback in the summer of 2014, which reduce excessive westerly wind (warm SST anomalies) in equatorial western Pacific (near the Dateline) and decrease the air-sea feedback. As a result, the predicted amplitude of NINO3.4 at the peak phase is comparable to the observed one, suggesting that the initial condition errors are partially responsible for the false alarm in the 2014 El Niño prediction issued in the spring. Nonetheless, the initial condition errors could not account for easterly wind burst observed in mid June associated with enhanced extratropical anti

Halo shapes, initial shear field, and cosmic web

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rossi, G

2014-01-01

The ellipsoidal collapse model, combined with the excursion set theory, allows one to estimate the shapes of dark matter halos as seen in high-resolution numerical simulations. The same theoretical framework predicts a quasi-universal behaviour for the conditional axis ratio distributions at later times, set by initial conditions and unaltered by non-linear evolution. The formalism for halo shapes is also useful in making the connection with the initial shear field of the cosmic web, which plays a crucial role in the formation of large-scale structures. The author has briefly discussed the basic aspects of the modelling, as well as the implications of a new formula for the constrained eigenvalues of the initial shear field, given the fact that positions are peaks or dips in the corresponding density field – and not random locations. This formula leads to a new generalized excursion set algorithm for peaks in Gaussian random fields. The results highlighted, here, are relevant for a number of applications, especially for weak lensing studies and for devising algorithms to find and classify structures in the cosmic web

An evaluation of analysis methodologies for predicting cleavage arrest of a deep crack in an RPV subjected to PTS loading conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Keeney-Walker, J.; Bass, B.R.

1992-01-01

Several calculational procedures are compared for predicting cleavage arrest of a deep crack in the wall of a prototypical reactor pressure vessel (RPV) subjected to pressurized-thermal-shock (PTS) types of loading conditions. Three procedures examined in this study utilized the following models: (1) a static finite-element model (full bending); (2) a radially constrained static model; and (3) a thermoelastic dynamic finite-element model. A PTS transient loading condition was selected that produced a deep arrest of an axially-oriented initially shallow crack according to calculational results obtained from the static (full-bending) model. Results from the two static models were compared with those generated from the detailed thermoelastic dynamic finite-element analysis. The dynamic analyses modeled cleavage-crack propagation using node-release technique and an application-mode methodology based on dynamic fracture toughness curves generated from measured data. Comparisons presented here indicate that the degree to which dynamic solutions can be approximated by static models is highly dependent on several factors, including the material dynamic fracture curves and the propensity for cleavage reinitiation of the arrested crack under PTS loading conditions. Additional work is required to develop and validate a satisfactory dynamic fracture toughness model applicable to postcleavage arrest conditions in an RPV

Computational prediction of the refinement of oxide agglomerates in a physical conditioning process for molten aluminium alloy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tong, M; Jagarlapudi, S C; Browne, D J; Patel, J B; Stone, I C; Fan, Z

2015-01-01

Physically conditioning molten scrap aluminium alloys using high shear processing (HSP) was recently found to be a promising technology for purification of contaminated alloys. HSP refines the solid oxide agglomerates in molten alloys, so that they can act as sites for the nucleation of Fe-rich intermetallic phases which can subsequently be removed by the downstream de-drossing process. In this paper, a computational modelling for predicting the evolution of size of oxide clusters during HSP is presented. We used CFD to predict the macroscopic flow features of the melt, and the resultant field predictions of temperature and melt shear rate were transferred to a population balance model (PBM) as its key inputs. The PBM is a macroscopic model that formulates the microscopic agglomeration and breakage of a population of a dispersed phase. Although it has been widely used to study conventional deoxidation of liquid metal, this is the first time that PBM has been used to simulate the melt conditioning process within a rotor/stator HSP device. We employed a method which discretizes the continuous profile of size of the dispersed phase into a collection of discrete bins of size, to solve the governing population balance equation for the size of agglomerates. A finite volume method was used to solve the continuity equation, the energy equation and the momentum equation. The overall computation was implemented mainly using the FLUENT module of ANSYS. The simulations showed that there is a relatively high melt shear rate between the stator and sweeping tips of the rotor blades. This high shear rate leads directly to significant fragmentation of the initially large oxide aggregates. Because the process of agglomeration is significantly slower than the breakage processes at the beginning of HSP, the mean size of oxide clusters decreases very rapidly. As the process of agglomeration gradually balances the process of breakage, the mean size of oxide clusters converges to a

Computational prediction of the refinement of oxide agglomerates in a physical conditioning process for molten aluminium alloy

Science.gov (United States)

Tong, M.; Jagarlapudi, S. C.; Patel, J. B.; Stone, I. C.; Fan, Z.; Browne, D. J.

2015-06-01

Physically conditioning molten scrap aluminium alloys using high shear processing (HSP) was recently found to be a promising technology for purification of contaminated alloys. HSP refines the solid oxide agglomerates in molten alloys, so that they can act as sites for the nucleation of Fe-rich intermetallic phases which can subsequently be removed by the downstream de-drossing process. In this paper, a computational modelling for predicting the evolution of size of oxide clusters during HSP is presented. We used CFD to predict the macroscopic flow features of the melt, and the resultant field predictions of temperature and melt shear rate were transferred to a population balance model (PBM) as its key inputs. The PBM is a macroscopic model that formulates the microscopic agglomeration and breakage of a population of a dispersed phase. Although it has been widely used to study conventional deoxidation of liquid metal, this is the first time that PBM has been used to simulate the melt conditioning process within a rotor/stator HSP device. We employed a method which discretizes the continuous profile of size of the dispersed phase into a collection of discrete bins of size, to solve the governing population balance equation for the size of agglomerates. A finite volume method was used to solve the continuity equation, the energy equation and the momentum equation. The overall computation was implemented mainly using the FLUENT module of ANSYS. The simulations showed that there is a relatively high melt shear rate between the stator and sweeping tips of the rotor blades. This high shear rate leads directly to significant fragmentation of the initially large oxide aggregates. Because the process of agglomeration is significantly slower than the breakage processes at the beginning of HSP, the mean size of oxide clusters decreases very rapidly. As the process of agglomeration gradually balances the process of breakage, the mean size of oxide clusters converges to a

Statistical prediction of AVB wear growth and initiation in model F steam generator tubes using Monte Carlo method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Jae Bong; Park, Jae Hak; Kim, Hong Deok; Chung, Han Sub; Kim, Tae Ryong

2005-01-01

The growth of AVB wear in Model F steam generator tubes is predicted using the Monte Carlo Method and statistical approaches. The statistical parameters that represent the characteristics of wear growth and wear initiation are derived from In-Service Inspection (ISI) Non-Destructive Evaluation (NDE) data. Based on the statistical approaches, wear growth model are proposed and applied to predict wear distribution at the End Of Cycle (EOC). Probabilistic distributions of the number of wear flaws and maximum wear depth at EOC are obtained from the analysis. Comparing the predicted EOC wear flaw data with the known EOC data the usefulness of the proposed method is examined and satisfactory results are obtained

Statistical prediction of AVB wear growth and initiation in model F steam generator tubes using Monte Carlo method

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee, Jae Bong; Park, Jae Hak [Chungbuk National Univ., Cheongju (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Hong Deok; Chung, Han Sub; Kim, Tae Ryong [Korea Electtric Power Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2005-07-01

The growth of AVB wear in Model F steam generator tubes is predicted using the Monte Carlo Method and statistical approaches. The statistical parameters that represent the characteristics of wear growth and wear initiation are derived from In-Service Inspection (ISI) Non-Destructive Evaluation (NDE) data. Based on the statistical approaches, wear growth model are proposed and applied to predict wear distribution at the End Of Cycle (EOC). Probabilistic distributions of the number of wear flaws and maximum wear depth at EOC are obtained from the analysis. Comparing the predicted EOC wear flaw data with the known EOC data the usefulness of the proposed method is examined and satisfactory results are obtained.

Anticipatory Postural Control of Stability during Gait Initiation Over Obstacles of Different Height and Distance Made Under Reaction-Time and Self-Initiated Instructions.

Science.gov (United States)

Yiou, Eric; Artico, Romain; Teyssedre, Claudine A; Labaune, Ombeline; Fourcade, Paul

2016-01-01

Despite the abundant literature on obstacle crossing in humans, the question of how the central nervous system (CNS) controls postural stability during gait initiation with the goal to clear an obstacle remains unclear. Stabilizing features of gait initiation include anticipatory postural adjustments (APAs) and lateral swing foot placement. To answer the above question, 14 participants initiated gait as fast as possible in three conditions of obstacle height, three conditions of obstacle distance and one obstacle-free (control) condition. Each of these conditions was performed with two levels of temporal pressure: reaction-time (high-pressure) and self-initiated (low-pressure) movements. A mechanical model of the body falling laterally under the influence of gravity and submitted to an elastic restoring force is proposed to assess the effect of initial (foot-off) center-of-mass position and velocity (or "initial center-of-mass set") on the stability at foot-contact. Results showed that the anticipatory peak of mediolateral (ML) center-of-pressure shift, the initial ML center-of-mass velocity and the duration of the swing phase, of gait initiation increased with obstacle height, but not with obstacle distance. These results suggest that ML APAs are scaled with swing duration in order to maintain an equivalent stability across experimental conditions. This statement is strengthened by the results obtained with the mechanical model, which showed how stability would be degraded if there was no adaptation of the initial center-of-mass set to swing duration. The anteroposterior (AP) component of APAs varied also according to obstacle height and distance, but in an opposite way to the ML component. Indeed, results showed that the anticipatory peak of backward center-of-pressure shift and the initial forward center-of-mass set decreased with obstacle height, probably in order to limit the risk to trip over the obstacle, while the forward center-of-mass velocity at foot

ANTICIPATORY POSTURAL CONTROL OF STABILITY DURING GAIT INITIATION OVER OBSTACLES OF DIFFERENT HEIGHT AND DISTANCE MADE UNDER REACTION-TIME AND SELF-INITIATED INSTRUCTIONS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eric Yiou

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Despite the abundant literature on obstacle crossing in humans, the question of how the central nervous system (CNS controls postural stability during gait initiation with the goal to clear an obstacle remains unclear. Stabilizing features of gait initiation include anticipatory postural adjustments (APAs and lateral swing foot placement. To answer the above question, fourteen participants initiated gait as fast as possible in three conditions of obstacle height, three conditions of obstacle distance, and one obstacle-free (control condition. Each of these conditions was performed with two levels of temporal pressure: reaction-time (high-pressure and self-initiated (low-pressure movements. A mechanical model of the body falling laterally under the influence of gravity and submitted to an elastic restoring force is proposed to assess the effect of initial (foot-off center-of-mass position and velocity (or initial center-of-mass set on stability at foot-contact. Results showed that the anticipatory peak of mediolateral center-of-pressure shif, the initial mediolateral center-of-mass velocity and the duration of the swing phase of gait initiation increased with obstacle height, but not with obstacle distance. These results suggest that mediolateral APAs are scaled with swing duration in order to maintain an equivalent stability across experimental conditions. This statement is strengthened by the results obtained with the mechanical model, which showed how stability would be degraded if there was no adaptation of the initial center-of-mass set to swing duration. The anteroposterior component of APAs varied also according to obstacle height and distance, but in an opposite way to the mediolateral component. Indeed, results showed that the anticipatory peak of backward center-of-pressure shift and the initial forward center-of-mass set decreased with obstacle height, probably in order to limit the risk to trip over the obstacle, while the forward

Seasonal prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall in NCEP CFSv2: forecast and predictability error

Science.gov (United States)

Pokhrel, Samir; Saha, Subodh Kumar; Dhakate, Ashish; Rahman, Hasibur; Chaudhari, Hemantkumar S.; Salunke, Kiran; Hazra, Anupam; Sujith, K.; Sikka, D. R.

2016-04-01

A detailed analysis of sensitivity to the initial condition for the simulation of the Indian summer monsoon using retrospective forecast by the latest version of the Climate Forecast System version-2 (CFSv2) is carried out. This study primarily focuses on the tropical region of Indian and Pacific Ocean basin, with special emphasis on the Indian land region. The simulated seasonal mean and the inter-annual standard deviations of rainfall, upper and lower level atmospheric circulations and Sea Surface Temperature (SST) tend to be more skillful as the lead forecast time decreases (5 month lead to 0 month lead time i.e. L5-L0). In general spatial correlation (bias) increases (decreases) as forecast lead time decreases. This is further substantiated by their averaged value over the selected study regions over the Indian and Pacific Ocean basins. The tendency of increase (decrease) of model bias with increasing (decreasing) forecast lead time also indicates the dynamical drift of the model. Large scale lower level circulation (850 hPa) shows enhancement of anomalous westerlies (easterlies) over the tropical region of the Indian Ocean (Western Pacific Ocean), which indicates the enhancement of model error with the decrease in lead time. At the upper level circulation (200 hPa) biases in both tropical easterly jet and subtropical westerlies jet tend to decrease as the lead time decreases. Despite enhancement of the prediction skill, mean SST bias seems to be insensitive to the initialization. All these biases are significant and together they make CFSv2 vulnerable to seasonal uncertainties in all the lead times. Overall the zeroth lead (L0) seems to have the best skill, however, in case of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR), the 3 month lead forecast time (L3) has the maximum ISMR prediction skill. This is valid using different independent datasets, wherein these maximum skill scores are 0.64, 0.42 and 0.57 with respect to the Global Precipitation Climatology Project

Reliability of Degree-Day Models to Predict the Development Time of Plutella xylostella (L.) under Field Conditions.

Science.gov (United States)

Marchioro, C A; Krechemer, F S; de Moraes, C P; Foerster, L A

2015-12-01

The diamondback moth, Plutella xylostella (L.), is a cosmopolitan pest of brassicaceous crops occurring in regions with highly distinct climate conditions. Several studies have investigated the relationship between temperature and P. xylostella development rate, providing degree-day models for populations from different geographical regions. However, there are no data available to date to demonstrate the suitability of such models to make reliable projections on the development time for this species in field conditions. In the present study, 19 models available in the literature were tested regarding their ability to accurately predict the development time of two cohorts of P. xylostella under field conditions. Only 11 out of the 19 models tested accurately predicted the development time for the first cohort of P. xylostella, but only seven for the second cohort. Five models correctly predicted the development time for both cohorts evaluated. Our data demonstrate that the accuracy of the models available for P. xylostella varies widely and therefore should be used with caution for pest management purposes.

Condition Help: A Patient- and Family-Initiated Rapid Response System.

Science.gov (United States)

Eden, Elizabeth L; Rack, Laurie L; Chen, Ling-Wan; Bump, Gregory M

2017-03-01

Rapid response teams (RRTs) help in delivering safe, timely care. Typically they are activated by clinicians using specific parameters. Allowing patients and families to activate RRTs is a novel intervention. The University of Pittsburgh Medical Center developed and implemented a patient- and family-initiated rapid response system called Condition Help (CH). When the CH system is activated, a patient care liaison or an on-duty administrator meets bedside with the unit charge nurse to address the patient's concerns. In this study, we collected demographic data, call reasons, call designations (safety or nonsafety), and outcome information for all CH calls made during the period January 2012 through June 2015. Two hundred forty patients/family members made 367 CH calls during the study period. Most calls were made by patients (76.8%) rather than family members (21.8%). Of the 240 patients, 43 (18%) made multiple calls; their calls accounted for 46.3% of all calls (170/367). Inadequate pain control was the reason for the call in most cases (48.2%), followed by dissatisfaction with staff (12.5%). The majority of calls involved nonsafety issues (83.4%) rather than safety issues (11.4%). In 41.4% of cases, a change in care was made. Patient- and family-initiated RRTs are designed to engage patients and families in providing safer care. In the CH system, safety issues are identified, but the majority of calls involve nonsafety issues. Journal of Hospital Medicine 2017;12:157-161. © 2017 Society of Hospital Medicine

T2 map signal variation predicts symptomatic osteoarthritis progression: data from the Osteoarthritis Initiative

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zhong, Haoti; Miller, David J. [The Pennsylvania State University, Department of Electrical Engineering, University Park, PA (United States); Urish, Kenneth L. [Magee Womens Hospital of the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center, The Bone and Joint Center, Pittsburgh, PA (United States); University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine, Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, Pittsburgh, PA (United States)

2016-07-15

The aim of this work is to use quantitative magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) to identify patients at risk for symptomatic osteoarthritis (OA) progression. We hypothesized that classification of signal variation on T2 maps might predict symptomatic OA progression. Patients were selected from the Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI), a prospective cohort. Two groups were identified: a symptomatic OA progression group and a control group. At baseline, both groups were asymptomatic (Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Arthritis [WOMAC] pain score total <10) with no radiographic evidence of OA (Kellgren-Lawrence [KL] score ≤ 1). The OA progression group (n = 103) had a change in total WOMAC score greater than 10 by the 3-year follow-up. The control group (n = 79) remained asymptomatic, with a change in total WOMAC score less than 10 at the 3-year follow-up. A classifier was designed to predict OA progression in an independent population based on T2 map cartilage signal variation. The classifier was designed using a nearest neighbor classification based on a Gaussian Mixture Model log-likelihood fit of T2 map cartilage voxel intensities. The use of T2 map signal variation to predict symptomatic OA progression in asymptomatic individuals achieved a specificity of 89.3 %, a sensitivity of 77.2 %, and an overall accuracy rate of 84.2 %. T2 map signal variation can predict symptomatic knee OA progression in asymptomatic individuals, serving as a possible early OA imaging biomarker. (orig.)

Effect of initial conditions on two-dimensional Rayleigh-Taylor instability and transition to turbulence in planar blast-wave-driven systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Miles, A.R.; Edwards, M.J.; Greenough, J.A.

2004-01-01

Perturbations on an interface driven by a strong blast wave grow in time due to a combination of Rayleigh-Taylor, Richtmyer-Meshkov, and decompression effects. In this paper, the results from a computational study of such a system under drive conditions to be attainable on the National Ignition Facility [E. M. Campbell, Laser Part. Beams 9, 209 (1991)] are presented. Using the multiphysics, adaptive mesh refinement, higher order Godunov Eulerian hydrocode, Raptor [L. H. Howell and J. A. Greenough, J. Comput. Phys. 184, 53 (2003)], the late nonlinear instability evolution for multiple amplitude and phase realizations of a variety of multimode spectral types is considered. Compressibility effects preclude the emergence of a regime of self-similar instability growth independent of the initial conditions by allowing for memory of the initial conditions to be retained in the mix-width at all times. The loss of transverse spectral information is demonstrated, however, along with the existence of a quasi-self-similar regime over short time intervals. Certain aspects of the initial conditions, including the rms amplitude, are shown to have a strong effect on the time to transition to the quasi-self-similar regime

Experiment prediction for LOFT nuclear experiments L5-1 and L8-2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen, T.H.; Modro, S.M.

1983-01-01

The LOFT Experiments L5-1 and L8-2 simulated intermediate break loss-of-coolant accidents with core uncovery. This paper compares the predictions with the measured data for these experiments. The RELAP5 code was used to perform best estimate double-blind and single-blind predictions. The double-blind calculations are performed prior to the experiment and use specified nominal initial and boundary conditions. The single-blind calculations are performed after the experiment and use measured initial and boundary conditions while maintaining all other parameters constant, including the code version. Comparisons of calculated results with experimental results are discussed; the possible causes of discrepancies are explored and explained. RELAP5 calculated system pressure, mass inventory, and fuel cladding temperature agree reasonably well with the experiment results, and only slight changes are noted between the double-blind and single-blind predictions

Necessary conditions for the initiation and propagation of nuclear-detonation waves in plane atmospheres

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Weaver, T.A.; Wood, L.

1979-01-01

The basic conditions for the initiation of a nuclear-detonation wave in an atmosphere having plane symmetry (e.g., a thin, layered fluid envelope on a planet or star) are developed. Two classes of such a detonation are identified: those in which the temperature of the plasma is comparable to that of the electromagnetic radiation permeating it, and those in which the temperature of the plasma is much higher. Necessary conditions are developed for the propagation of such detonation waves for an arbitrarily great distance. The contribution of fusion chain reactions to these processes is evaluated. By means of these considerations, it is shown that neither the atmosphere nor oceans of the Earth may be made to undergo propagating nuclear detonation under any circumstances

Ecological Factors Predict Transition Readiness/Self-Management in Youth With Chronic Conditions.

Science.gov (United States)

Javalkar, Karina; Johnson, Meredith; Kshirsagar, Abhijit V; Ocegueda, Sofia; Detwiler, Randal K; Ferris, Maria

2016-01-01

Health care transition readiness or self-management among adolescents and young adults (AYA) with chronic conditions may be influenced by factors related to their surrounding environment. Study participants were AYA diagnosed with a chronic condition and evaluated at pediatric- and adult-focused subspecialty clinics at the University of North Carolina Hospital Systems. All participants were administered a provider-administered self-management/transition-readiness tool, the UNC TRxANSITION Scale. Geographic area and associated characteristics (ecological factors) were identified for each participant's ZIP code using the published U.S. Census data. The Level 1 model of the hierarchical linear regression used individual-level predictors of transition readiness/self-management. The Level 2 model incorporated the ecological factors. We enrolled 511 AYA with different chronic conditions aged 12-31 years with the following characteristics: mean age of 20± 4 years, 45% white, 42% black, and 54% female. Participants represented 214 ZIP codes in or around North Carolina, USA. The Level 1 model showed that age, gender, and race were significant predictors of transition readiness/self-management. On adding the ecological factors in the Level 2 model, race was no longer significant. Participants from a geographic area with a greater percentage of females (β = .114, p = .005) and a higher median income (β = .126, p = .002) had greater overall transition readiness. Ecological factors also predicted subdomains of transition readiness/self-management. In this cohort of adolescents and young adults with different chronic conditions, ecological disparities such as sex composition, median income, and language predict self-management/transition readiness. It is important to take ecological risk factors into consideration when preparing patients for health self-management or transition. Copyright © 2016 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All

Enhanced stability of steep channel beds to mass failure and debris flow initiation

Science.gov (United States)

Prancevic, J.; Lamb, M. P.; Ayoub, F.; Venditti, J. G.

2015-12-01

Debris flows dominate bedrock erosion and sediment transport in very steep mountain channels, and are often initiated from failure of channel-bed alluvium during storms. While several theoretical models exist to predict mass failures, few have been tested because observations of in-channel bed failures are extremely limited. To fill this gap in our understanding, we performed laboratory flume experiments to identify the conditions necessary to initiate bed failures in non-cohesive sediment of different sizes (D = 0.7 mm to 15 mm) on steep channel-bed slopes (S = 0.45 to 0.93) and in the presence of water flow. In beds composed of sand, failures occurred under sub-saturated conditions on steep bed slopes (S > 0.5) and under super-saturated conditions at lower slopes. In beds of gravel, however, failures occurred only under super-saturated conditions at all tested slopes, even those approaching the dry angle of repose. Consistent with theoretical models, mass failures under super-saturated conditions initiated along a failure plane approximately one grain-diameter below the bed surface, whereas the failure plane was located near the base of the bed under sub-saturated conditions. However, all experimental beds were more stable than predicted by 1-D infinite-slope stability models. In partially saturated sand, enhanced stability appears to result from suction stress. Enhanced stability in gravel may result from turbulent energy losses in pores or increased granular friction for failures that are shallow with respect to grain size. These grain-size dependent effects are not currently included in stability models for non-cohesive sediment, and they may help to explain better the timing and location of debris flow occurrence.

Visual Bias Predicts Gait Adaptability in Novel Sensory Discordant Conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Brady, Rachel A.; Batson, Crystal D.; Peters, Brian T.; Mulavara, Ajitkumar P.; Bloomberg, Jacob J.

2010-01-01

We designed a gait training study that presented combinations of visual flow and support-surface manipulations to investigate the response of healthy adults to novel discordant sensorimotor conditions. We aimed to determine whether a relationship existed between subjects visual dependence and their postural stability and cognitive performance in a new discordant environment presented at the conclusion of training (Transfer Test). Our training system comprised a treadmill placed on a motion base facing a virtual visual scene that provided a variety of sensory challenges. Ten healthy adults completed 3 training sessions during which they walked on a treadmill at 1.1 m/s while receiving discordant support-surface and visual manipulations. At the first visit, in an analysis of normalized torso translation measured in a scene-movement-only condition, 3 of 10 subjects were classified as visually dependent. During the Transfer Test, all participants received a 2-minute novel exposure. In a combined measure of stride frequency and reaction time, the non-visually dependent subjects showed improved adaptation on the Transfer Test compared to their visually dependent counterparts. This finding suggests that individual differences in the ability to adapt to new sensorimotor conditions may be explained by individuals innate sensory biases. An accurate preflight assessment of crewmembers biases for visual dependence could be used to predict their propensities to adapt to novel sensory conditions. It may also facilitate the development of customized training regimens that could expedite adaptation to alternate gravitational environments.

The prediction of mechanical performance of isotactic polypropylene on the basis of processing conditions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Caelers, H.J.M.; Govaert, L.E.; Peters, G.W.M.

2016-01-01

A strategy is presented to predict the yield kinetics following from different thermomechanical histories experienced during processing in non-isothermal quiescent conditions. This strategy deals with three main parts, i.e. processing, structure and properties. In the first part the applied cooling

On the Predictability of Sea Ice

Science.gov (United States)

Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, Edward

We investigate the persistence and predictability of sea ice in numerical models and observations. We first use the 3rd generation Community Climate System Model (CCSM3) General Circulation Model (GCM) to investigate the inherent persistence of sea-ice area and thickness. We find that sea-ice area anomalies have a seasonal decay timescale, exhibiting an initial decorrelation similar to a first order auto-regressive (AR1, or red noise) process. Beyond this initial loss of memory, there is a re-emergence of memory at certain times of the year. There are two distinct modes of re-emergence in the model, one driven by the seasonal coupling of area and thickness anomalies in the summer, the other by the persistence of upper ocean temperature anomalies that originate from ice anomalies in the melt season and then influence ice anomalies in the growth season. Comparison with satellite observations where available indicate these processes appear in nature. We then use the 4th generation CCSM (CCSM4) to investigate the partition of Arctic sea-ice predictability into its initial-value and boundary forced components under present day forcing conditions. We find that initial-value predictability lasts for 1-2 years for sea-ice area, and 3-4 years for sea-ice volume. Forced predictability arises after just 4-5 years for both area and volume. Initial-value predictability of sea-ice area during the summer hinges on the coupling between thickness and area anomalies during that season. We find that the loss of initial-value predictability with time is not uniform --- there is a rapid loss of predictability of sea-ice volume during the late spring early summer associated with snow melt and albedo feedbacks. At the same time, loss of predictability is not uniform across different regions. Given the usefulness of ice thickness as a predictor of summer sea-ice area, we obtain a hindcast of September sea-ice area initializing the GCM on May 1with an estimate of observed sea-ice thickness

Stage I surface crack formation in thermal fatigue: A predictive multi-scale approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Osterstock, S.; Robertson, C.; Sauzay, M.; Aubin, V.; Degallaix, S.

2010-01-01

A multi-scale numerical model is developed, predicting the formation of stage I cracks, in thermal fatigue loading conditions. The proposed approach comprises 2 distinct calculation steps. Firstly, the number of cycles to micro-crack initiation is determined, in individual grains. The adopted initiation model depends on local stress-strain conditions, relative to sub-grain plasticity, grain orientation and grain deformation incompatibilities. Secondly, 2-4 grains long surface cracks (stage I) is predicted, by accounting for micro-crack coalescence, in 3 dimensions. The method described in this paper is applied to a 500 grains aggregate, loaded in representative thermal fatigue conditions. Preliminary results provide quantitative insight regarding position, density, spacing and orientations of stage I surface cracks and subsequent formation of crack networks. The proposed method is fully deterministic, provided all grain crystallographic orientations and micro-crack linking thresholds are specified. (authors)

Applying linear discriminant analysis to predict groundwater redox conditions conducive to denitrification

Science.gov (United States)

Wilson, S. R.; Close, M. E.; Abraham, P.

2018-01-01

Diffuse nitrate losses from agricultural land pollute groundwater resources worldwide, but can be attenuated under reducing subsurface conditions. In New Zealand, the ability to predict where groundwater denitrification occurs is important for understanding the linkage between land use and discharges of nitrate-bearing groundwater to streams. This study assesses the application of linear discriminant analysis (LDA) for predicting groundwater redox status for Southland, a major dairy farming region in New Zealand. Data cases were developed by assigning a redox status to samples derived from a regional groundwater quality database. Pre-existing regional-scale geospatial databases were used as training variables for the discriminant functions. The predictive accuracy of the discriminant functions was slightly improved by optimising the thresholds between sample depth classes. The models predict 23% of the region as being reducing at shallow depths (water table, and low-permeability clastic sediments. The coastal plains are an area of widespread groundwater discharge, and the soil and hydrology characteristics require the land to be artificially drained to render the land suitable for farming. For the improvement of water quality in coastal areas, it is therefore important that land and water management efforts focus on understanding hydrological bypassing that may occur via artificial drainage systems.

Conditioned pain modulation predicts duloxetine efficacy in painful diabetic neuropathy.

Science.gov (United States)

Yarnitsky, David; Granot, Michal; Nahman-Averbuch, Hadas; Khamaisi, Mogher; Granovsky, Yelena

2012-06-01

This study aims to individualize the selection of drugs for neuropathic pain by examining the potential coupling of a given drug's mechanism of action with the patient's pain modulation pattern. The latter is assessed by the conditioned pain modulation (CPM) and temporal summation (TS) protocols. We hypothesized that patients with a malfunctioning pain modulation pattern, such as less efficient CPM, would benefit more from drugs augmenting descending inhibitory pain control than would patients with a normal modulation pattern of efficient CPM. Thirty patients with painful diabetic neuropathy received 1 week of placebo, 1 week of 30 mg/d duloxetine, and 4 weeks of 60 mg/d duloxetine. Pain modulation was assessed psychophysically, both before and at the end of treatment. Patient assessment of drug efficacy, assessed weekly, was the study's primary outcome. Baseline CPM was found to be correlated with duloxetine efficacy (r=0.628, P<.001, efficient CPM is marked negative), such that less efficient CPM predicted efficacious use of duloxetine. Regression analysis (R(2)=0.673; P=.012) showed that drug efficacy was predicted only by CPM (P=.001) and not by pretreatment pain levels, neuropathy severity, depression level, or patient assessment of improvement by placebo. Furthermore, beyond its predictive value, the treatment-induced improvement in CPM was correlated with drug efficacy (r=-0.411, P=.033). However, this improvement occurred only in patients with less efficient CPM (16.8±16.0 to -1.1±15.5, P<.050). No predictive role was found for TS. In conclusion, the coupling of CPM and duloxetine efficacy highlights the importance of pain pathophysiology in the clinical decision-making process. This evaluative approach promotes personalized pain therapy. Copyright © 2012 International Association for the Study of Pain. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Prediction and visualization of redox conditions in the groundwater of Central Valley, California

Science.gov (United States)

Rosecrans, Celia Z.; Nolan, Bernard T.; Gronberg, JoAnn M.

2017-01-01

Regional-scale, three-dimensional continuous probability models, were constructed for aspects of redox conditions in the groundwater system of the Central Valley, California. These models yield grids depicting the probability that groundwater in a particular location will have dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations less than selected threshold values representing anoxic groundwater conditions, or will have dissolved manganese (Mn) concentrations greater than selected threshold values representing secondary drinking water-quality contaminant levels (SMCL) and health-based screening levels (HBSL). The probability models were constrained by the alluvial boundary of the Central Valley to a depth of approximately 300 m. Probability distribution grids can be extracted from the 3-D models at any desired depth, and are of interest to water-resource managers, water-quality researchers, and groundwater modelers concerned with the occurrence of natural and anthropogenic contaminants related to anoxic conditions.Models were constructed using a Boosted Regression Trees (BRT) machine learning technique that produces many trees as part of an additive model and has the ability to handle many variables, automatically incorporate interactions, and is resistant to collinearity. Machine learning methods for statistical prediction are becoming increasing popular in that they do not require assumptions associated with traditional hypothesis testing. Models were constructed using measured dissolved oxygen and manganese concentrations sampled from 2767 wells within the alluvial boundary of the Central Valley, and over 60 explanatory variables representing regional-scale soil properties, soil chemistry, land use, aquifer textures, and aquifer hydrologic properties. Models were trained on a USGS dataset of 932 wells, and evaluated on an independent hold-out dataset of 1835 wells from the California Division of Drinking Water. We used cross-validation to assess the predictive performance of

Prediction and visualization of redox conditions in the groundwater of Central Valley, California

Science.gov (United States)

Rosecrans, Celia Z.; Nolan, Bernard T.; Gronberg, JoAnn M.

2017-03-01

Regional-scale, three-dimensional continuous probability models, were constructed for aspects of redox conditions in the groundwater system of the Central Valley, California. These models yield grids depicting the probability that groundwater in a particular location will have dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations less than selected threshold values representing anoxic groundwater conditions, or will have dissolved manganese (Mn) concentrations greater than selected threshold values representing secondary drinking water-quality contaminant levels (SMCL) and health-based screening levels (HBSL). The probability models were constrained by the alluvial boundary of the Central Valley to a depth of approximately 300 m. Probability distribution grids can be extracted from the 3-D models at any desired depth, and are of interest to water-resource managers, water-quality researchers, and groundwater modelers concerned with the occurrence of natural and anthropogenic contaminants related to anoxic conditions. Models were constructed using a Boosted Regression Trees (BRT) machine learning technique that produces many trees as part of an additive model and has the ability to handle many variables, automatically incorporate interactions, and is resistant to collinearity. Machine learning methods for statistical prediction are becoming increasing popular in that they do not require assumptions associated with traditional hypothesis testing. Models were constructed using measured dissolved oxygen and manganese concentrations sampled from 2767 wells within the alluvial boundary of the Central Valley, and over 60 explanatory variables representing regional-scale soil properties, soil chemistry, land use, aquifer textures, and aquifer hydrologic properties. Models were trained on a USGS dataset of 932 wells, and evaluated on an independent hold-out dataset of 1835 wells from the California Division of Drinking Water. We used cross-validation to assess the predictive performance of

Self-initiated actions result in suppressed auditory but amplified visual evoked components in healthy participants.

Science.gov (United States)

Mifsud, Nathan G; Oestreich, Lena K L; Jack, Bradley N; Ford, Judith M; Roach, Brian J; Mathalon, Daniel H; Whitford, Thomas J

2016-05-01

Self-suppression refers to the phenomenon that sensations initiated by our own movements are typically less salient, and elicit an attenuated neural response, compared to sensations resulting from changes in the external world. Evidence for self-suppression is provided by previous ERP studies in the auditory modality, which have found that healthy participants typically exhibit a reduced auditory N1 component when auditory stimuli are self-initiated as opposed to externally initiated. However, the literature investigating self-suppression in the visual modality is sparse, with mixed findings and experimental protocols. An EEG study was conducted to expand our understanding of self-suppression across different sensory modalities. Healthy participants experienced either an auditory (tone) or visual (pattern-reversal) stimulus following a willed button press (self-initiated), a random interval (externally initiated, unpredictable onset), or a visual countdown (externally initiated, predictable onset-to match the intrinsic predictability of self-initiated stimuli), while EEG was continuously recorded. Reduced N1 amplitudes for self- versus externally initiated tones indicated that self-suppression occurred in the auditory domain. In contrast, the visual N145 component was amplified for self- versus externally initiated pattern reversals. Externally initiated conditions did not differ as a function of their predictability. These findings highlight a difference in sensory processing of self-initiated stimuli across modalities, and may have implications for clinical disorders that are ostensibly associated with abnormal self-suppression. © 2016 Society for Psychophysiological Research.

Verification of an ENSO-Based Long-Range Prediction of Anomalous Weather Conditions During the Vancouver 2010 Olympics and Paralympics

Science.gov (United States)

Mo, Ruping; Joe, Paul I.; Doyle, Chris; Whitfield, Paul H.

2014-01-01

A brief review of the anomalous weather conditions during the Vancouver 2010 Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games and the efforts to predict these anomalies based on some preceding El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) signals are presented. It is shown that the Olympic Games were held under extraordinarily warm conditions in February 2010, with monthly mean temperature anomalies of +2.2 °C in Vancouver and +2.8 °C in Whistler, ranking respectively as the highest and the second highest in the past 30 years (1981-2010). The warm conditions continued, but became less anomalous, in March 2010 for the Paralympic Games. While the precipitation amounts in the area remained near normal through this winter, the lack of snow due to warm conditions created numerous media headlines and practical problems for the alpine competitions. A statistical model was developed on the premise that February and March temperatures in the Vancouver area could be predicted using an ENSO signal with considerable lead time. This model successfully predicted the warmer-than-normal, lower-snowfall conditions for the Vancouver 2010 Winter Olympics and Paralympics.

Water resources assessment and prediction in China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

W. Guangsheng

2016-10-01

Full Text Available Water resources assessment in China, can be classified into three groups: (i comprehensive water resources assessment, (ii annual water resources assessment, and (iii industrial project water resources assessment. Comprehensive water resources assessment is the conventional assessment where the frequency distribution of water resources in basins or provincial regions are analyzed. For the annual water resources assessment, water resources of the last year in basins or provincial regions are usually assessed. For the industrial project water resources assessment, the water resources situation before the construction of industrial project has to be assessed. To address the climate and environmental changes, hydrological and statistical models are widely applied for studies on assessing water resources changes. For the water resources prediction in China usually the monthly runoff prediction is used. In most low flow seasons, the flow recession curve is commonly used as prediction method. In the humid regions, the rainfall-runoff ensemble prediction (ESP has been widely applied for the monthly runoff prediction. The conditional probability method for the monthly runoff prediction was also applied to assess next month runoff probability under a fixed initial condition.

Numerical analysis of rolling contact fatigue crack initiation and fatigue life prediction of the railway crossing

OpenAIRE

Xin, L.; Markine, V.L.; Shevtsov, I.

2015-01-01

The procedure for analysing rolling contact fatigue crack initiation and fatigue life prediction of the railway turnout crossing is developed. A three-dimensional finite element (FE) model is used to obtain stress and strain results, considering the dynamic effects of wheel-crossing rolling contact. Material model accounting for elastic- plastic isotropic and kinematic hardening effects is adopted. The results from FE analysis are combined with J-S fatigue model that is based on critical plan...

The Predictive Capability of Conditioned Simulation of Discrete Fracture Networks using Structural and Hydraulic Data from the ONKALO Underground Research Facility, Finland

Science.gov (United States)

Williams, T. R. N.; Baxter, S.; Hartley, L.; Appleyard, P.; Koskinen, L.; Vanhanarkaus, O.; Selroos, J. O.; Munier, R.

2017-12-01

Discrete fracture network (DFN) models provide a natural analysis framework for rock conditions where flow is predominately through a series of connected discrete features. Mechanistic models to predict the structural patterns of networks are generally intractable due to inherent uncertainties (e.g. deformation history) and as such fracture characterisation typically involves empirical descriptions of fracture statistics for location, intensity, orientation, size, aperture etc. from analyses of field data. These DFN models are used to make probabilistic predictions of likely flow or solute transport conditions for a range of applications in underground resource and construction projects. However, there are many instances when the volumes in which predictions are most valuable are close to data sources. For example, in the disposal of hazardous materials such as radioactive waste, accurate predictions of flow-rates and network connectivity around disposal areas are required for long-term safety evaluation. The problem at hand is thus: how can probabilistic predictions be conditioned on local-scale measurements? This presentation demonstrates conditioning of a DFN model based on the current structural and hydraulic characterisation of the Demonstration Area at the ONKALO underground research facility. The conditioned realisations honour (to a required level of similarity) the locations, orientations and trace lengths of fractures mapped on the surfaces of the nearby ONKALO tunnels and pilot drillholes. Other data used as constraints include measurements from hydraulic injection tests performed in pilot drillholes and inflows to the subsequently reamed experimental deposition holes. Numerical simulations using this suite of conditioned DFN models provides a series of prediction-outcome exercises detailing the reliability of the DFN model to make local-scale predictions of measured geometric and hydraulic properties of the fracture system; and provides an understanding

Crack initiation modeling of a directionally-solidified nickel-base superalloy

Science.gov (United States)

Gordon, Ali Page

Combustion gas turbine components designed for application in electric power generation equipment are subject to periodic replacement as a result of cracking, damage, and mechanical property degeneration that render them unsafe for continued operation. In view of the significant costs associated with inspecting, servicing, and replacing damaged components, there has been much interest in developing models that not only predict service life, but also estimate the evolved microstructural state of the material. This thesis explains manifestations of microstructural damage mechanisms that facilitate fatigue crack nucleation in a newly-developed directionally-solidified (DS) Ni-base superalloy components exposed to elevated temperatures and high stresses. In this study, models were developed and validated for damage and life prediction using DS GTD-111 as the subject material. This material, proprietary to General Electric Energy, has a chemical composition and grain structure designed to withstand creep damage occurring in the first and second stage blades of gas-powered turbines. The service conditions in these components, which generally exceed 600°C, facilitate the onset of one or more damage mechanisms related to fatigue, creep, or environment. The study was divided into an empirical phase, which consisted of experimentally simulating service conditions in fatigue specimens, and a modeling phase, which entailed numerically simulating the stress-strain response of the material. Experiments have been carried out to simulate a variety of thermal, mechanical, and environmental operating conditions endured by longitudinally (L) and transversely (T) oriented DS GTD-111. Both in-phase and out-of-phase thermo-mechanical fatigue tests were conducted. In some cases, tests in extreme environments/temperatures were needed to isolate one or at most two of the mechanisms causing damage. Microstructural examinations were carried out via SEM and optical microscopy. A continuum

Divergent series and memory of the initial condition in the long-time solution of some anomalous diffusion problems.

Science.gov (United States)

Yuste, S Bravo; Borrego, R; Abad, E

2010-02-01

We consider various anomalous d -dimensional diffusion problems in the presence of an absorbing boundary with radial symmetry. The motion of particles is described by a fractional diffusion equation. Their mean-square displacement is given by r(2) proportional, variant t(gamma)(0divergent series appear when the concentration or survival probabilities are evaluated via the method of separation of variables. While the solution for normal diffusion problems is, at most, divergent as t-->0 , the emergence of such series in the long-time domain is a specific feature of subdiffusion problems. We present a method to regularize such series, and, in some cases, validate the procedure by using alternative techniques (Laplace transform method and numerical simulations). In the normal diffusion case, we find that the signature of the initial condition on the approach to the steady state rapidly fades away and the solution approaches a single (the main) decay mode in the long-time regime. In remarkable contrast, long-time memory of the initial condition is present in the subdiffusive case as the spatial part Psi1(r) describing the long-time decay of the solution to the steady state is determined by a weighted superposition of all spatial modes characteristic of the normal diffusion problem, the weight being dependent on the initial condition. Interestingly, Psi1(r) turns out to be independent of the anomalous diffusion exponent gamma .

Analysis of SCC initiation/propagation behavior of stainless steels in LWR environments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Saito, Koichi; Kuniya, Jiro

1999-01-01

This paper presents a method to analyze initiation and propagation behavior of stress corrosion cracking (SCC) of stainless steels on the basis of a new prediction algorithm in which the initiation period and propagation period of SCC under irradiation conditions are considered from a practical viewpoint. The prediction algorithm is based on three ideas: (1) threshold neutron fluence of radiation-enhanced SCC (RESCC), (2) equivalent critical crack depth, and (3) threshold stress intensity factor for SCC (K ISCC ). SCC initiation/propagation behavior in light water reactor (LWR) environments is analyzed by incorporating model equations on irradiation hardening, irradiation-enhanced electrochemical potentiokinetic reactivation (EPR) and irradiation stress relaxation that are phenomena peculiar to neutron irradiation. The analytical method is applied to predict crack growth behavior of a semi-elliptical surface crack in a flat plane that has an arbitrary residual stress profile; specimens are sensitized type 304 stainless steels which had been subjected to neutron irradiation in high temperature water. SCC growth behavior of a semi-elliptical surface crack was greatly dependent on the distribution of residual stress in a flat plane. When residual stress at the surface of the flat plane was relatively small, the method predicted SCC propagation did not take place. (author)

Chaos crisis in coupled Duffing's systems with initial phase difference

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bi Qinsheng

2007-01-01

The dynamics of coupled Duffing's oscillators with initial phase difference is investigated in this Letter. For the averaged equations, different equilibrium points can be observed, the number of which may vary with the parameters. The stable equilibrium points, corresponding to the periodic motion of the original coupled oscillators, may coexist with different patterns of dynamics, including chaos. Furthermore, two different chaotic attractors associated with different attracting basin coexist for certain parameter conditions, which may interact with each other to form an enlarged chaotic attractor. Several new dynamical phenomena such as boundary chaos crises have been predicted as the initial phase difference varies

Validation of the criteria for initiating the cleaning of heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) ductwork under real conditions.

Science.gov (United States)

Lavoie, Jacques; Marchand, Geneviève; Cloutier, Yves; Lavoué, Jérôme

2011-08-01

Dust accumulation in the components of heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems is a potential source of contaminants. To date, very little information is available on recognized methods for assessing dust buildup in these systems. The few existing methods are either objective in nature, involving numerical values, or subjective in nature, based on experts' judgments. An earlier project aimed at assessing different methods of sampling dust in ducts was carried out in the laboratories of the Institut de recherche Robert-Sauvé en santé et en sécurité du travail (IRSST). This laboratory study showed that all the sampling methods were practicable, provided that a specific surface-dust cleaning initiation criterion was used for each method. However, these conclusions were reached on the basis of ideal conditions in a laboratory using a reference dust. The objective of this present study was to validate these laboratory results in the field. To this end, the laboratory sampling templates were replicated in real ducts and the three sampling methods (the IRSST method, the method of the U.S. organization National Air Duct Cleaner Association [NADCA] and that of the French organization Association pour la Prévention et l'Étude de la Contamination [ASPEC]) were used simultaneously in a statistically representative number of systems. The air return and supply ducts were also compared. Cleaning initiation criteria under real conditions were found to be 6.0 mg/100 cm(2) using the IRSST method, 2.0 mg/100 cm(2) using the NADCA method, and 23 mg/100 cm(2) using the ASPEC method. In the laboratory study, the criteria using the same methods were 6.0 for the IRSST method, 2.0 for the NADCA method, and 3.0 for the ASPEC method. The laboratory criteria for the IRSST and NADCA methods were therefore validated in the field. The ASPEC criterion was the only one to change. The ASPEC method therefore allows for the most accurate evaluation of dust accumulation in HVAC

Initial conditions for inflation and the energy scale of SUSY-breaking from the (nearly) gaussian sky

CERN Document Server

Álvarez-Gaumé, Luis; Jimenez, Raul

We show how general initial conditions for small field inflation can be obtained in multi-field models. This is provided by non-linear angular friction terms in the inflaton that provide a phase of non-slow-roll inflation before the slow-roll inflation phase. This in turn provides a natural mechanism to star small-field slow-roll at nearly zero velocity for arbitrary initial conditions. We also show that there is a relation between the scale of SUSY breaking sqrt (f) and the amount of non-gaussian fluctuations generated by the inflaton. In particular, we show that in the local non-gaussian shape there exists the relation sqrt (f) = 10^{13} GeV sqrt (f_NL). With current observational limits from Planck, and adopting the minimum amount of non-gaussian fluctuations allowed by single-field inflation, this provides a very tight constraint for the SUSY breaking energy scale sqrt (f) = 3-7 x 10^{13} GeV at 95% confidence. Further limits, or detection, from next year's Planck polarisation data will further tighten th...

Doppler Radar and Analysis for Climate Model Verification and Numerical Weather Prediction

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Xu, Qin

1998-01-01

... (Qiu and Xu, 1996, Mon. Wea. Rev., 1132-1144). The LS method was further upgraded to including background wind fields and used to improve the initial condition for the ARPS model's short-term prediction...

Zn(II, Mn(II and Sr(II Behavior in a Natural Carbonate Reservoir System. Part I: Impact of Salinity, Initial pH and Initial Zn(II Concentration in Atmospheric Conditions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Auffray B.

2016-07-01

Full Text Available The sorption of inorganic elements on carbonate minerals is well known in strictly controlled conditions which limit the impact of other phenomena such as dissolution and/or precipitation. In this study, we evidence the behavior of Zn(II (initially in solution and two trace elements, Mn(II and Sr(II (released by carbonate dissolution in the context of a leakage from a CO2 storage site. The initial pH chosen are either equal to the pH of the water-CO2 equilibrium (~ 2.98 or equal to the pH of the water-CO2-calcite system (~ 4.8 in CO2 storage conditions. From this initial influx of liquid, saturated or not with respect to calcite, the batch experiments evolve freely to their equilibrium, as it would occur in a natural context after a perturbation. The batch experiments are carried out on two natural carbonates (from Lavoux and St-Emilion with PCO2 = 10−3.5 bar, with different initial conditions ([Zn(II]i from 10−4 to 10−6 M, either with pure water or 100 g/L NaCl brine. The equilibrium regarding calcite dissolution is confirmed in all experiments, while the zinc sorption evidenced does not always correspond to the two-step mechanism described in the literature. A preferential sorption of about 10% of the concentration is evidenced for Mn(II in aqueous experiments, while Sr(II is more sorbed in saline conditions. This study also shows that this preferential sorption, depending on the salinity, is independent of the natural carbonate considered. Then, the simulations carried out with PHREEQC show that experiments and simulations match well concerning the equilibrium of dissolution and the sole zinc sorption, with log KZn(II ~ 2 in pure water and close to 4 in high salinity conditions. When the simulations were possible, the log K values for Mn(II and Sr(II were much different from those in the literature obtained by sorption in controlled conditions. It is shown that a new conceptual model regarding multiple Trace Elements (TE sorption is

Identifying black swans in NextGen: predicting human performance in off-nominal conditions.

Science.gov (United States)

Wickens, Christopher D; Hooey, Becky L; Gore, Brian F; Sebok, Angelia; Koenicke, Corey S

2009-10-01

The objective is to validate a computational model of visual attention against empirical data--derived from a meta-analysis--of pilots' failure to notice safety-critical unexpected events. Many aircraft accidents have resulted, in part, because of failure to notice nonsalient unexpected events outside of foveal vision, illustrating the phenomenon of change blindness. A model of visual noticing, N-SEEV (noticing-salience, expectancy, effort, and value), was developed to predict these failures. First, 25 studies that reported objective data on miss rate for unexpected events in high-fidelity cockpit simulations were identified, and their miss rate data pooled across five variables (phase of flight, event expectancy, event location, presence of a head-up display, and presence of a highway-in-the-sky display). Second, the parameters of the N-SEEV model were tailored to mimic these dichotomies. The N-SEEV model output predicted variance in the obtained miss rate (r = .73). The individual miss rates of all six dichotomous conditions were predicted within 14%, and four of these were predicted within 7%. The N-SEEV model, developed on the basis of an independent data set, was able to successfully predict variance in this safety-critical measure of pilot response to abnormal circumstances, as collected from the literature. As new technology and procedures are envisioned for the future airspace, it is important to predict if these may compromise safety in terms of pilots' failing to notice unexpected events. Computational models such as N-SEEV support cost-effective means of making such predictions.

Deficiencies and possibilities for long-lead coupled climate prediction of the Western North Pacific-East Asian summer monsoon

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee, Sun-Seon; Ha, Kyung-Ja [Pusan National University, Division of Earth Environmental System, Busan (Korea, Republic of); Lee, June-Yi; Wang, Bin [University of Hawaii, Department of Meteorology and International Pacific Research Center, Honolulu, HI (United States); Schemm, Jae Kyung E. [Climate Prediction Center/NCEP, Camp Springs, MD (United States)

2011-03-15

Long-lead prediction of waxing and waning of the Western North Pacific (WNP)-East Asian (EA) summer monsoon (WNP-EASM) precipitation is a major challenge in seasonal time-scale climate prediction. In this study, deficiencies and potential for predicting the WNP-EASM precipitation and circulation one or two seasons ahead were examined using retrospective forecast data for the 26-year period of 1981-2006 from two operational couple models which are the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System (CFS) and the Bureau of Meteorology Research Center (BMRC) Predictive Ocean-Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA). While both coupled models have difficulty in predicting summer mean precipitation anomalies over the region of interest, even for a 0-month lead forecast, they are capable of predicting zonal wind anomalies at 850 hPa several months ahead and, consequently, satisfactorily predict summer monsoon circulation indices for the EA region (EASMI) and for the WNP region (WNPSMI). It should be noted that the two models' multi-model ensemble (MME) reaches 0.40 of the correlation skill for the EASMI with a January initial condition and 0.75 for the WNPSMI with a February initial condition. Further analysis indicates that prediction reliability of the EASMI is related not only to the preceding El Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) but also to simultaneous local SST variability. On other hand, better prediction of the WNPSMI is accompanied by a more realistic simulation of lead-lag relationship between the index and ENSO. It should also be noted that current coupled models have difficulty in capturing the interannual variability component of the WNP-EASM system which is not correlated with typical ENSO variability. To improve the long-lead seasonal prediction of the WNP-EASM precipitation, a statistical postprocessing was developed based on the multiple linear regression method. The method utilizes the MME prediction of the EASMI and

Prediction of hydrological reduction factor and initial loss in urban surface runoff from small ungauged catchments

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K.; Harremoës, P.

1996-01-01

An advanced runoff model is compared to a simple one employing only a runoff coefficient and a regression parameter allowing for initial loss. The present study shows that the more detailed description of the runoff processes cannot be justified due to the uncertainty from using only one gauge...... in the evaluation of the yearly discharges. In the case of extreme events, the uncertainty of the predicted runoff of the single event should also be taken into account....

Satellite-based hybrid drought monitoring tool for prediction of vegetation condition in Eastern Africa: A case study for Ethiopia

Science.gov (United States)

Tadesse, Tsegaye; Demisse, Getachew Berhan; Zaitchik, Ben; Dinku, Tufa

2014-03-01

An experimental drought monitoring tool has been developed that predicts the vegetation condition (Vegetation Outlook) using a regression-tree technique at a monthly time step during the growing season in Eastern Africa. This prediction tool (VegOut-Ethiopia) is demonstrated for Ethiopia as a case study. VegOut-Ethiopia predicts the standardized values of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) at multiple time steps (weeks to months into the future) based on analysis of "historical patterns" of satellite, climate, and oceanic data over historical records. The model underlying VegOut-Ethiopia capitalizes on historical climate-vegetation interactions and ocean-climate teleconnections (such as El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO)) expressed over the 24 year data record and also considers several environmental characteristics (e.g., land cover and elevation) that influence vegetation's response to weather conditions to produce 8 km maps that depict future general vegetation conditions. VegOut-Ethiopia could provide vegetation monitoring capabilities at local, national, and regional levels that can complement more traditional remote sensing-based approaches that monitor "current" vegetation conditions. The preliminary results of this case study showed that the models were able to predict the vegetation stress (both spatial extent and severity) in drought years 1-3 months ahead during the growing season in Ethiopia. The correlation coefficients between the predicted and satellite-observed vegetation condition range from 0.50 to 0.90. Based on the lessons learned from past research activities and emerging experimental forecast models, future studies are recommended that could help Eastern Africa in advancing knowledge of climate, remote sensing, hydrology, and water resources.

Updated global soil map for the Weather Research and Forecasting model and soil moisture initialization for the Noah land surface model

Science.gov (United States)

DY, C. Y.; Fung, J. C. H.

2016-08-01

A meteorological model requires accurate initial conditions and boundary conditions to obtain realistic numerical weather predictions. The land surface controls the surface heat and moisture exchanges, which can be determined by the physical properties of the soil and soil state variables, subsequently exerting an effect on the boundary layer meteorology. The initial and boundary conditions of soil moisture are currently obtained via National Centers for Environmental Prediction FNL (Final) Operational Global Analysis data, which are collected operationally in 1° by 1° resolutions every 6 h. Another input to the model is the soil map generated by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations - United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (FAO-UNESCO) soil database, which combines several soil surveys from around the world. Both soil moisture from the FNL analysis data and the default soil map lack accuracy and feature coarse resolutions, particularly for certain areas of China. In this study, we update the global soil map with data from Beijing Normal University in 1 km by 1 km grids and propose an alternative method of soil moisture initialization. Simulations of the Weather Research and Forecasting model show that spinning-up the soil moisture improves near-surface temperature and relative humidity prediction using different types of soil moisture initialization. Explanations of that improvement and improvement of the planetary boundary layer height in performing process analysis are provided.

A CFD study for evaluating the effects of natural ventilation on indoor comfort conditions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Miguel Mora-Pérez

2017-03-01

Full Text Available There is an increasing interest in improving energy efficiency in buildings due to the increased awareness about environmental impact and energy cost. Natural ventilation is an environmentally friendly technique which has become more attractive way for reducing energy use while it also provides acceptable comfort conditions. The research shows a case study building in which the natural ventilation effect due to wind-driven forces on indoor comfort conditions is evaluated. Moreover, the architectural solutions selected during the building design phase to improve the natural ventilation behaviour are successfully validated in a full-scale building. The indoor comfort conditions are evaluated through contrasted performance indicators: draught risk (DR, predicted percentage of dissatisfied people (PPD and predicted mean vote (PMV indexes. The results show that air movement due to natural ventilation allows increasing indoor air temperature maintaining the initial comfort conditions. Therefore, the mechanical air conditioning use can be postponed until the indoor air temperature is high and would, consequently, reduce the total building energy consumption. Thereby, a proper natural ventilation focus during the initial design stage could improve the building energy efficiency without compromising the indoor comfort conditions.

The Effect of Initial Irrigation Conditions on Heap Leaching Efficiency

Science.gov (United States)

Briseño Arellano, A. D.; Milczarek, M.; Yao, M.; Brusseau, M. L. L.

2017-12-01

Heap leaching is an unsaturated flow metal recovery process, in which mined ore is irrigated with a lixiviant to dissolve metal contained in the ore. The metal is then extracted from solution. Large scale operations involve stacking ore to depths of 6 to 18 meters on pads that may be hundreds of hectares in area. Heterogeneities within the stacked ore can lead to uneven wetting and the formation of preferential flow pathways, which reduces solution contact and lowers metal recovery. Furthermore, mineral dissolution can cause alteration of the porous media structure and loss of ore permeability. Many mine operators believe that slow initial irrigation rates help minimize permeability loss and increase metal recovery rates. However, this phenomenon has not been studied in detail. Experiments were conducted to investigate the effect of varying initial irrigation rates on leach ore stability. These were conducted with large columns (1.5 m high, 0.5 m in diameter) packed with crushed ore samples that are known to have permeability constraints. The columns were highly instrumented to assess potential changes in material properties both spatially and temporally. Water content was measured with three different methods: capacitance soil moisture sensors placed at 20-cm intervals; a neutron probe to periodically log every 30 cm from four different directions; and electrical resistivity sensors to create a 2-dimensional tomography profile of water content over time. Tensiometers were paired with the soil moisture sensors to measure matric suction and characterize moisture retention characteristics. A non-reactive tracer was used to characterize advective-dispersive transport under unsaturated conditions. A dye solution was introduced at the end of each experiment to map preferential pathways. Continuous monitoring of settling at the surface assisted in measuring consolidation and loss in permeability.

Improvement of the prediction of fluid pressure from the results of techno-geophysical studies under complex geological conditions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Aleksandrov, B.L.; Esipko, O.A.; Dakhkilgov, T.D.

1981-12-01

Results of statistical processing of the data of prediction of pore pressures in the course of well sinking, according to the material of oil field and geophysical investigations in different areas, are presented. Likewise, the errors of pressure prediction, their causes, geological models of series with anomalously high formation pressure, and methods for prediction of pore and formation pressures under different geological conditions are considered. 12 refs.

One-Day Prediction of Biometeorological Conditions in a Mediterranean Urban Environment Using Artificial Neural Networks Modeling

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

K. P. Moustris

2013-01-01

Full Text Available The present study, deals with the 24-hour prognosis of the outdoor biometeorological conditions in an urban monitoring site within the Greater Athens area, Greece. For this purpose, artificial neural networks (ANNs modelling techniques are applied in order to predict the maximum and the minimum value of the physiologically equivalent temperature (PET one day ahead as well as the persistence of the hours with extreme human biometeorological conditions. The findings of the analysis showed that extreme heat stress appears to be 10.0% of the examined hours within the warm period of the year, against extreme cold stress for 22.8% of the hours during the cold period of the year. Finally, human thermal comfort sensation accounts for 81.8% of the hours during the year. Concerning the PET prognosis, ANNs have a remarkable forecasting ability to predict the extreme daily PET values one day ahead, as well as the persistence of extreme conditions during the day, at a significant statistical level of .

Short-term prediction of local wind conditions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Landberg, L.

2001-01-01

This paper will describe a system which predicts the expected power output of a number of wind farms. The system is automatic and operates on-line. The paper will quantify the accuracy of the predictions and will also give examples of the performance for specific storm events. An actual...

Effects of Heterogeneity and Uncertainties in Sources and Initial and Boundary Conditions on Spatiotemporal Variations of Groundwater Levels

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Y. K.; Liang, X.

2014-12-01

Effects of aquifer heterogeneity and uncertainties in source/sink, and initial and boundary conditions in a groundwater flow model on the spatiotemporal variations of groundwater level, h(x,t), were investigated. Analytical solutions for the variance and covariance of h(x, t) in an unconfined aquifer described by a linearized Boussinesq equation with a white noise source/sink and a random transmissivity field were derived. It was found that in a typical aquifer the error in h(x,t) in early time is mainly caused by the random initial condition and the error reduces as time goes to reach a constant error in later time. The duration during which the effect of the random initial condition is significant may last a few hundred days in most aquifers. The constant error in groundwater in later time is due to the combined effects of the uncertain source/sink and flux boundary: the closer to the flux boundary, the larger the error. The error caused by the uncertain head boundary is limited in a narrow zone near the boundary but it remains more or less constant over time. The effect of the heterogeneity is to increase the variation of groundwater level and the maximum effect occurs close to the constant head boundary because of the linear mean hydraulic gradient. The correlation of groundwater level decreases with temporal interval and spatial distance. In addition, the heterogeneity enhances the correlation of groundwater level, especially at larger time intervals and small spatial distances.

The initiation of environmentally-assisted cracking in semi-elliptical surface cracks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

James, L.A.

1997-01-01

A criterion to predict under what conditions EAC would Initiate In cracks In a high-sulfur steel in contact with low-oxygen water was recently proposed by Wire and U. This EAC Initiation Criterion was developed using transient analyses for the diffusion of sulfides plus experimental test results. The experiments were conducted mainly on compact tension-type specimens with initial crack depths of about 2.54 mm. The present paper expands upon the work of Wire and U by presenting results for significantly deeper initial semi-elliptical surface cracks. In addition, in one specimen, the surface crack penetrated weld-deposited cladding into the high-sulfur steel. The results for the semi-elliptical surface cracks agreed quite well with the EAC Initiation Criterion, and provide confirmation of the applicability of the criterion to crack configurations with more restricted access to water

Decadal Prediction Skill in the GEOS-5 Forecast System

Science.gov (United States)

Ham, Yoo-Geun; Rienecker, Michele M.; Suarez, Max J.; Vikhliaev, Yury; Zhao, Bin; Marshak, Jelena; Vernieres, Guillaume; Schubert, Siegfried D.

2013-01-01

A suite of decadal predictions has been conducted with the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office's (GMAO's) GEOS-5 Atmosphere-Ocean general circulation model. The hind casts are initialized every December 1st from 1959 to 2010, following the CMIP5 experimental protocol for decadal predictions. The initial conditions are from a multivariate ensemble optimal interpolation ocean and sea-ice reanalysis, and from GMAO's atmospheric reanalysis, the modern-era retrospective analysis for research and applications. The mean forecast skill of a three-member-ensemble is compared to that of an experiment without initialization but also forced with observed greenhouse gases. The results show that initialization increases the forecast skill of North Atlantic sea surface temperature compared to the uninitialized runs, with the increase in skill maintained for almost a decade over the subtropical and mid-latitude Atlantic. On the other hand, the initialization reduces the skill in predicting the warming trend over some regions outside the Atlantic. The annual-mean Atlantic meridional overturning circulation index, which is defined here as the maximum of the zonally-integrated overturning stream function at mid-latitude, is predictable up to a 4-year lead time, consistent with the predictable signal in upper ocean heat content over the North Atlantic. While the 6- to 9-year forecast skill measured by mean squared skill score shows 50 percent improvement in the upper ocean heat content over the subtropical and mid-latitude Atlantic, prediction skill is relatively low in the sub-polar gyre. This low skill is due in part to features in the spatial pattern of the dominant simulated decadal mode in upper ocean heat content over this region that differ from observations. An analysis of the large-scale temperature budget shows that this is the result of a model bias, implying that realistic simulation of the climatological fields is crucial for skillful decadal forecasts.

Technical Note: Assessing predictive capacity and conditional independence of landslide predisposing factors for shallow landslide susceptibility models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Pereira

2012-04-01

Full Text Available The aim of this study is to identify the landslide predisposing factors' combination using a bivariate statistical model that best predicts landslide susceptibility. The best model is one that has simultaneously good performance in terms of suitability and predictive power and has been developed using variables that are conditionally independent. The study area is the Santa Marta de Penaguião council (70 km² located in the Northern Portugal.

In order to identify the best combination of landslide predisposing factors, all possible combinations using up to seven predisposing factors were performed, which resulted in 120 predictions that were assessed with a landside inventory containing 767 shallow translational slides. The best landslide susceptibility model was selected according to the model degree of fitness and on the basis of a conditional independence criterion. The best model was developed with only three landslide predisposing factors (slope angle, inverse wetness index, and land use and was compared with a model developed using all seven landslide predisposing factors.

Results showed that it is possible to produce a reliable landslide susceptibility model using fewer landslide predisposing factors, which contributes towards higher conditional independence.

The Initial Atmospheric Transport (IAT) Code: Description and Validation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Morrow, Charles W. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Bartel, Timothy James [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

2015-10-01

The Initial Atmospheric Transport (IAT) computer code was developed at Sandia National Laboratories as part of their nuclear launch accident consequences analysis suite of computer codes. The purpose of IAT is to predict the initial puff/plume rise resulting from either a solid rocket propellant or liquid rocket fuel fire. The code generates initial conditions for subsequent atmospheric transport calculations. The Initial Atmospheric Transfer (IAT) code has been compared to two data sets which are appropriate to the design space of space launch accident analyses. The primary model uncertainties are the entrainment coefficients for the extended Taylor model. The Titan 34D accident (1986) was used to calibrate these entrainment settings for a prototypic liquid propellant accident while the recent Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory (JHU/APL, or simply APL) large propellant block tests (2012) were used to calibrate the entrainment settings for prototypic solid propellant accidents. North American Meteorology (NAM )formatted weather data profiles are used by IAT to determine the local buoyancy force balance. The IAT comparisons for the APL solid propellant tests illustrate the sensitivity of the plume elevation to the weather profiles; that is, the weather profile is a dominant factor in determining the plume elevation. The IAT code performed remarkably well and is considered validated for neutral weather conditions.

Hydrological modelling for flood forecasting: Calibrating the post-fire initial conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Papathanasiou, C.; Makropoulos, C.; Mimikou, M.

2015-10-01

Floods and forest fires are two of the most devastating natural hazards with severe socioeconomic, environmental as well as aesthetic impacts on the affected areas. Traditionally, these hazards are examined from different perspectives and are thus investigated through different, independent systems, overlooking the fact that they are tightly interrelated phenomena. In fact, the same flood event is more severe, i.e. associated with increased runoff discharge and peak flow and decreased time to peak, if it occurs over a burnt area than that occurring over a land not affected by fire. Mediterranean periurban areas, where forests covered with flammable vegetation coexist with agricultural land and urban zones, are typical areas particularly prone to the combined impact of floods and forest fires. Hence, the accurate assessment and effective management of post-fire flood risk becomes an issue of priority. The research presented in this paper aims to develop a robust methodological framework, using state of art tools and modern technologies to support the estimation of the change in time of five representative hydrological parameters for post-fire conditions. The proposed methodology considers both longer- and short-term initial conditions in order to assess the dynamic evolution of the selected parameters. The research focuses on typical Mediterranean periurban areas that are subjected to both hazards and concludes with a set of equations that associate post-fire and pre-fire conditions for five Fire Severity (FS) classes and three soil moisture states. The methodology has been tested for several flood events on the Rafina catchment, a periurban catchment in Eastern Attica (Greece). In order to validate the methodology, simulated hydrographs were produced and compared against available observed data. Results indicate a close convergence of observed and simulated flows. The proposed methodology is particularly flexible and thus easily adaptable to catchments with similar

Cyclic plastic material behavior leading to crack initiation in stainless steel under complex fatigue loading conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Facheris, G.

2014-01-01

The improvement of the reliability and of the safety in the design of components belonging to the primary cooling circuit of a light water nuclear reactor is nowadays one of the most important research topics in nuclear industry. One of the most important damage mechanisms leading the crack initiation in this class of components is the low cycle fatigue (LCF) driven by thermal strain fluctuations caused by the complex thermo-mechanical loading conditions typical for the primary circuit (e.g. operating thermal transients, thermal stratification, turbulent mixing of cold and hot water flows, etc.). The cyclic application of the resulting plastic deformation to the steel grades commonly used for the fabrication of piping parts (e.g. austenitic stainless steels) is associated with a continuous evolution of the mechanical response of the material. As an additional complication, the cyclic behavior of stainless steels is influenced by temperature, strain amplitude and cyclic accumulation of inelastic strain (i.e. ratcheting). The accurate prediction of the structural response of components belonging to the primary cooling circuit requires the development of a reliable constitutive model that must be characterized by a reduced complexity to allow its application in an industrial context. In this framework, the main goal of the current dissertation is to formulate, calibrate and implement in a commercial Finite Element code, a constitutive model that is suitable for the stainless stain grade 316L subjected to complex loading conditions. As a first task, a characterization of the mechanical behavior of 316L subjected to uniaxial and multiaxial strain-controlled conditions (including LCF and ratcheting) is carried out performing several tests in the laboratories of the Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI, Villigen, Switzerland) and of Politecnico di Milano (Italy). The uniaxial experiments demonstrate that, prescribing a strain-controlled ratcheting path, a harder material response

Cyclic plastic material behavior leading to crack initiation in stainless steel under complex fatigue loading conditions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Facheris, G.

2014-07-01

The improvement of the reliability and of the safety in the design of components belonging to the primary cooling circuit of a light water nuclear reactor is nowadays one of the most important research topics in nuclear industry. One of the most important damage mechanisms leading the crack initiation in this class of components is the low cycle fatigue (LCF) driven by thermal strain fluctuations caused by the complex thermo-mechanical loading conditions typical for the primary circuit (e.g. operating thermal transients, thermal stratification, turbulent mixing of cold and hot water flows, etc.). The cyclic application of the resulting plastic deformation to the steel grades commonly used for the fabrication of piping parts (e.g. austenitic stainless steels) is associated with a continuous evolution of the mechanical response of the material. As an additional complication, the cyclic behavior of stainless steels is influenced by temperature, strain amplitude and cyclic accumulation of inelastic strain (i.e. ratcheting). The accurate prediction of the structural response of components belonging to the primary cooling circuit requires the development of a reliable constitutive model that must be characterized by a reduced complexity to allow its application in an industrial context. In this framework, the main goal of the current dissertation is to formulate, calibrate and implement in a commercial Finite Element code, a constitutive model that is suitable for the stainless stain grade 316L subjected to complex loading conditions. As a first task, a characterization of the mechanical behavior of 316L subjected to uniaxial and multiaxial strain-controlled conditions (including LCF and ratcheting) is carried out performing several tests in the laboratories of the Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI, Villigen, Switzerland) and of Politecnico di Milano (Italy). The uniaxial experiments demonstrate that, prescribing a strain-controlled ratcheting path, a harder material response

Decadal climate predictions improved by ocean ensemble dispersion filtering

Science.gov (United States)

Kadow, C.; Illing, S.; Kröner, I.; Ulbrich, U.; Cubasch, U.

2017-06-01

Decadal predictions by Earth system models aim to capture the state and phase of the climate several years in advance. Atmosphere-ocean interaction plays an important role for such climate forecasts. While short-term weather forecasts represent an initial value problem and long-term climate projections represent a boundary condition problem, the decadal climate prediction falls in-between these two time scales. In recent years, more precise initialization techniques of coupled Earth system models and increased ensemble sizes have improved decadal predictions. However, climate models in general start losing the initialized signal and its predictive skill from one forecast year to the next. Here we show that the climate prediction skill of an Earth system model can be improved by a shift of the ocean state toward the ensemble mean of its individual members at seasonal intervals. We found that this procedure, called ensemble dispersion filter, results in more accurate results than the standard decadal prediction. Global mean and regional temperature, precipitation, and winter cyclone predictions show an increased skill up to 5 years ahead. Furthermore, the novel technique outperforms predictions with larger ensembles and higher resolution. Our results demonstrate how decadal climate predictions benefit from ocean ensemble dispersion filtering toward the ensemble mean.Plain Language SummaryDecadal predictions aim to predict the climate several years in advance. Atmosphere-ocean interaction plays an important role for such climate forecasts. The ocean memory due to its heat capacity holds big potential skill. In recent years, more precise initialization techniques of coupled Earth system models (incl. atmosphere and ocean) have improved decadal predictions. Ensembles are another important aspect. Applying slightly perturbed predictions to trigger the famous butterfly effect results in an ensemble. Instead of evaluating one prediction, but the whole ensemble with its

All Cues Are Not Created Equal: Obtaining Attitude Persistence under Low-Involvement Conditions.

OpenAIRE

Sengupta, Jaideep; Goodstein, Ronald C; Boninger, David S

1997-01-01

Attitude persistence research in consumer behavior has been predominantly associated with high- rather than low-involvement processing. Advertising, however, is most often processed as a low-involvement communication. The authors predict that different low-involvement cues lead to different degrees of attitude persistence. Consistent with this prediction, they find that under low-involvement conditions, when both related and unrelated peripheral cues evoke similar initial attitudes, only when...

Features of the development of round jets for different initial conditions and in the presence of obstacles

Science.gov (United States)

Kozlov, V. V.; Litvinenko, M. V.; Litvinenko, Yu. A.; Kozlov, G. V.

2016-10-01

The goal of this work is an experimental study of the influence of the initial conditions (nozzle configuration, mean velocity profile at the nozzle exit, surface roughness, and jet diameter) on the flow structure in a round jet by various methods: hot-wire anemometry, smoke visualization, and particle image velocimetry (PIV).

Initial reaction between CaO and SO₂ under carbonating and non-carbonating conditions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rasmussen, Martin Hagsted; Wedel, Stig; Pedersen, Kim H.

2015-01-01

The initial kinetics of the CaO/SO2 reaction have been investigated for reaction times shorter than 1s and in the temperature interval between 450 and 600°C under both carbonating and non-carbonating conditions (0-20 vol% CO2) to clarify how recirculating CaO influences the emission of SO2 from...... showed that the CaO conversion with respect to SO2 declined when the CO2 concentration was increased. Under all conditions, larger specific surface areas of CaO gave higher reaction rates with SO2. Higher temperatures had a positive effect on the reaction between SO2 and CaO under non......-carbonating conditions, but no or even a negative effect under carbonating conditions. The results led to the conclusion that SO2 released from raw meal in the upper stages of the preheater does not to any significant extent react with CaO recirculating in the preheater tower....

Probing the cosmological initial conditions using the CMB

Science.gov (United States)

Yadav, Amit P. S.

In the last few decades, advances in observational cosmology have given us a standard model of cosmology. The basic cosmological parameters have been laid out to high precision. Cosmologists have started asking questions about the nature of the cosmological initial conditions. Many ambitious experiments such as Planck satellite, EBEX, ACT, CAPMAP, QUaD, BICEP, SPIDER, QUIET, and GEM are underway. Experiments like these will provide us with a wealth of information about CMB polarization, CMB lensing, and polarization foregrounds. These experiments will be complemented with great observational campaigns to map the 3D structure in the Universe and new particle physics constraints from the Large Hadron Collider. In my graduate work I have made explicit how observations of the CMB temperature and E-polarization anisotropies can be combined to provide optimal constraints on models of the early universe at the highest energies. I have developed new ways of constraining models of the early universe using CMB temperature and polarization data. Inflation is one of the most promising theories of the early universe. Different inflationary models predict different amounts of non-Gaussian perturbations. Although any non-Gaussianity predicted by the canonical inflation model is very small, there exist models which can generate significant amounts of non-Gaussianities. Hence any characterization of non-Gaussianity of the primordial perturbations constrains the models of inflation. The information in the bispectrum (or higher order moments) is completely independent of the power spectrum constraints on the amplitude of primordial power spectrum (A), the scalar spectral index of the primordial power spectrum ns, and the running of the primordial power spectrum. My work has made it possible to extract the bispectrum information from large, high resolution CMB temperature and polarization data. We have demonstrated that the primordial adiabatic perturbations can be reconstructed using

Broccoli (Brassica oleracea var. italica head initiation under field conditions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alina Kałużewicz

2012-12-01

Full Text Available A two–year study on the influence of temperature on broccoli head initiation was carried out at the ''Marcelin'' experimental station of the Poznań University of Life Sciences. In each year of the study, plants were planted in the field at four dates. The evaluation of the developmental phase of the broccoli shoot apex was based on the analysis of microscope slides. The date of head initiation was assumed as the day on which the first of the examined apices were found to be at the early generative phase. The plant characteristics (number of leaves, leaf area and stem diameter on the date of initiation were also determined. Variation in length of the period from planting to head initiation was found both between dates of planting and between experimental years. The shortest period from planting to initiation was when the plants were planted in April and June (17-18 days in the first year and the longest one for planting in April in the first year of the study (29 days. The length of the period from planting to head initiation depended on mean daily air temperature. The higher the temperature was, the shorter was the period.

Structure life prediction at high temperature: present and future capabilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chaboche, J.L.

1987-01-01

The life prediction techniques for high temperature conditions include several aspects which are considered successively in this article. Crack initiation criteria themselves, defined for the isolated volume element (the tension-compression specimen for example), including parametric relationships and continuous damage approaches and calculation of local stress and strain fields in the structure and their evolution under cyclic plasticity, which poses several difficult problems to obtain stabilized cyclic solutions are examined. The use of crack initiation criteria or damage rules from the result of the cyclic inelastic analysis and the prediction of crack growth in the structure are considered. Different levels are considered for the predictive tools: the classical approach, future methods presently under development and intermediate rules, which are already in use. Several examples are given on materials and components used either in the nuclear industry or in gas turbine engines. (author)

Informal Workplace Learning among Nurses: Organisational Learning Conditions and Personal Characteristics That Predict Learning Outcomes

Science.gov (United States)

Kyndt, Eva; Vermeire, Eva; Cabus, Shana

2016-01-01

Purpose: This paper aims to examine which organisational learning conditions and individual characteristics predict the learning outcomes nurses achieve through informal learning activities. There is specific relevance for the nursing profession because of the rapidly changing healthcare systems. Design/Methodology/Approach: In total, 203 nurses…

Conditions for Viral Influence Spreading through Multiplex Correlated Social Networks

Science.gov (United States)

Hu, Yanqing; Havlin, Shlomo; Makse, Hernán A.

2014-04-01

A fundamental problem in network science is to predict how certain individuals are able to initiate new networks to spring up "new ideas." Frequently, these changes in trends are triggered by a few innovators who rapidly impose their ideas through "viral" influence spreading, producing cascades of followers and fragmenting an old network to create a new one. Typical examples include the rise of scientific ideas or abrupt changes in social media, like the rise of Facebook to the detriment of Myspace. How this process arises in practice has not been conclusively demonstrated. Here, we show that a condition for sustaining a viral spreading process is the existence of a multiplex-correlated graph with hidden "influence links." Analytical solutions predict percolation-phase transitions, either abrupt or continuous, where networks are disintegrated through viral cascades of followers, as in empirical data. Our modeling predicts the strict conditions to sustain a large viral spreading via a scaling form of the local correlation function between multilayers, which we also confirm empirically. Ultimately, the theory predicts the conditions for viral cascading in a large class of multiplex networks ranging from social to financial systems and markets.

An Outflow Boundary Condition Model for Noninvasive Prediction of Fractional Flow Reserve in Diseased Coronary Arteries.

Science.gov (United States)

Fayssal, Iyad A; Moukalled, Fadl; Alam, Samir; Isma'eel, Hussain

2018-04-01

This paper reports on a new boundary condition formulation to model the total coronary myocardial flow and resistance characteristics of the myocardial vascular bed for any specific patient when considered for noninvasive diagnosis of ischemia. The developed boundary condition model gives an implicit representation of the downstream truncated coronary bed. Further, it is based on incorporating patient-specific physiological parameters that can be noninvasively extracted to account for blood flow demand to the myocardium at rest and hyperemic conditions. The model is coupled to a steady three-dimensional (3D) collocated pressure-based finite volume flow solver and used to characterize the "functional significance" of a patient diseased coronary artery segment without the need for predicting the hemodynamics of the entire arterial system. Predictions generated with this boundary condition provide a deep understanding of the inherent challenges behind noninvasive image-based diagnostic techniques when applied to human diseased coronary arteries. The overall numerical method and formulated boundary condition model are validated via two computational-based procedures and benchmarked with available measured data. The newly developed boundary condition is used via a designed computational methodology to (a) confirm the need for incorporating patient-specific physiological parameters when modeling the downstream coronary resistance, (b) explain the discrepancies presented in the literature between measured and computed fractional flow reserve (FFRCT), and (c) discuss the current limitations and future challenges in shifting to noninvasive assessment of ischemia.

A hybrid prognostic model for multistep ahead prediction of machine condition

Science.gov (United States)

Roulias, D.; Loutas, T. H.; Kostopoulos, V.

2012-05-01

Prognostics are the future trend in condition based maintenance. In the current framework a data driven prognostic model is developed. The typical procedure of developing such a model comprises a) the selection of features which correlate well with the gradual degradation of the machine and b) the training of a mathematical tool. In this work the data are taken from a laboratory scale single stage gearbox under multi-sensor monitoring. Tests monitoring the condition of the gear pair from healthy state until total brake down following several days of continuous operation were conducted. After basic pre-processing of the derived data, an indicator that correlated well with the gearbox condition was obtained. Consecutively the time series is split in few distinguishable time regions via an intelligent data clustering scheme. Each operating region is modelled with a feed-forward artificial neural network (FFANN) scheme. The performance of the proposed model is tested by applying the system to predict the machine degradation level on unseen data. The results show the plausibility and effectiveness of the model in following the trend of the timeseries even in the case that a sudden change occurs. Moreover the model shows ability to generalise for application in similar mechanical assets.

An analysis of prediction skill of monthly mean climate variability

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kumar, Arun; Chen, Mingyue; Wang, Wanqiu [Climate Prediction Center, National Centers for Environmental Prediction (CPC/NCEP), Camp Springs, MD (United States)

2011-09-15

In this paper, lead-time and spatial dependence in skill for prediction of monthly mean climate variability is analyzed. The analysis is based on a set of extensive hindcasts from the Climate Forecast System at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. The skill characteristics of initialized predictions is also compared with the AMIP simulations forced with the observed sea surface temperature (SST) to quantify the role of initial versus boundary conditions in the prediction of monthly means. The analysis is for prediction of monthly mean SST, precipitation, and 200-hPa height. The results show a rapid decay in skill with lead time for the atmospheric variables in the extratropical latitudes. Further, after a lead-time of approximately 30-40 days, the skill of monthly mean prediction is essentially a boundary forced problem, with SST anomalies in the tropical central/eastern Pacific playing a dominant role. Because of the larger contribution from the atmospheric internal variability to monthly time-averages (compared to seasonal averages), skill for monthly mean prediction associated with boundary forcing is also lower. The analysis indicates that the prospects of skillful prediction of monthly means may remain a challenging problem, and may be limited by inherent limits in predictability. (orig.)

Initial growth of Costus longebracteolatus and Costus spiralis ‘French Kiss’ under different light conditions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Renata Bachin Mazzini-Guedes

2016-12-01

Full Text Available The Brazilian native Costus longebracteolatus and Costus spiralis ‘French Kiss’, in the family Costaceae, have been used as both cut flowers and cut foliage. It is known that Costus species grow better under partial shade, but studies on the influence of shading or light on plant growth, development, and flower production are still incipient. As this kind of information is essential on planning of planting, production, and agribusiness activities, the objective of this research was to evaluate the influence of different colored shade nets and light conditions on the initial growth of both C. longebracteolatus and C. spiralis ‘French Kiss’. Plants, obtained from cuttings of pseudostems, were cultivated under six light conditions, which comprised six treatments, along 270 days: red net with 50% shading, blue net with 50% shading, black net with 70% shading, black net with 50% shading, black net with 30% shading, and full sun. The initial growth of C. longebracteolatus (up to 270 days is more successful under the blue net with 50% shading, which promoted highest values of pseudostem length and dry matter of aerial part. For C. spiralis ‘French Kiss’ plants, both the red and blue nets with 50% shading implied best results and differed for the other treatments with greater pseudostem length. Plant exposure to full sun inhibited growth and development, and favored early leaf necrosis.

Diagnostic performance of initial serum albumin level for predicting in-hospital mortality among aspiration pneumonia patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Hyosun; Jo, Sion; Lee, Jae Baek; Jin, Youngho; Jeong, Taeoh; Yoon, Jaechol; Lee, Jeong Moon; Park, Boyoung

2018-01-01

The predictive value of serum albumin in adult aspiration pneumonia patients remains unknown. Using data collected during a 3-year retrospective cohort of hospitalized adult patients with aspiration pneumonia, we evaluated the predictive value of serum albumin level at ED presentation for in-hospital mortality. 248 Patients were enrolled; of these, 51 cases died (20.6%). The mean serum albumin level was 3.4±0.7g/dL and serum albumin levels were significantly lower in the non-survivor group than in the survivor group (3.0±0.6g/dL vs. 3.5±0.6g/dL). In the multivariable logistic regression model, albumin was associated with in-hospital mortality significantly (adjusted odds ratio 0.30, 95% confidential interval (CI) 0.16-0.57). The area under the receiver operating characteristics (AUROC) for in-hospital survival was 0.72 (95% CI 0.64-0.80). The Youden index was 3.2g/dL and corresponding sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, positive and negative likelihood ratio were 68.6%, 66.5%, 34.7%, 89.1%, 2.05 and 0.47, respectively. High sensitivity (98.0%) was shown at albumin level of 4.0g/dL and high specificity (94.9%) was shown at level of 2.5g/dL. Initial serum albumin levels were independently associated with in-hospital mortality among adult patients hospitalized with aspiration pneumonia and demonstrated fair discriminative performance in the prediction of in-hospital mortality. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Aeroheating Testing and Predictions for Project Orion CEV at Turbulent Conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Hollis, Brian R.; Berger, Karen T.; Horvath, Thomas J.; Coblish, Joseph J.; Norris, Joseph D.; Lillard, Randolph P.; Kirk, Benjamin S.

2009-01-01

An investigation of the aeroheating environment of the Project Orion Crew Exploration Vehicle was performed in the Arnold Engineering Development Center Hypervelocity Wind Tunnel No. 9 Mach 8 and Mach 10 nozzles and in the NASA Langley Research Center 20 - Inch Mach 6 Air Tunnel. Heating data were obtained using a thermocouple-instrumented approx.0.035-scale model (0.1778-m/7-inch diameter) of the flight vehicle. Runs were performed in the Tunnel 9 Mach 10 nozzle at free stream unit Reynolds numbers of 1x10(exp 6)/ft to 20x10(exp 6)/ft, in the Tunnel 9 Mach 8 nozzle at free stream unit Reynolds numbers of 8 x 10(exp 6)/ft to 48x10(exp 6)/ft, and in the 20-Inch Mach 6 Air Tunnel at free stream unit Reynolds numbers of 1x10(exp 6)/ft to 7x10(exp 6)/ft. In both facilities, enthalpy levels were low and the test gas (N2 in Tunnel 9 and air in the 20-Inch Mach 6) behaved as a perfect-gas. These test conditions produced laminar, transitional and turbulent data in the Tunnel 9 Mach 10 nozzle, transitional and turbulent data in the Tunnel 9 Mach 8 nozzle, and laminar and transitional data in the 20- Inch Mach 6 Air Tunnel. Laminar and turbulent predictions were generated for all wind tunnel test conditions and comparisons were performed with the experimental data to help define the accuracy of computational method. In general, it was found that both laminar data and predictions, and turbulent data and predictions, agreed to within less than the estimated 12% experimental uncertainty estimate. Laminar heating distributions from all three data sets were shown to correlate well and demonstrated Reynolds numbers independence when expressed in terms of the Stanton number based on adiabatic wall-recovery enthalpy. Transition onset locations on the leeside centerline were determined from the data and correlated in terms of boundary-layer parameters. Finally turbulent heating augmentation ratios were determined for several body-point locations and correlated in terms of the

Prediction of long-term behaviour for nuclear waste disposal

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shoesmith, D.W.; Ikeda, B.M.; King, F.; Sunder, S.

1996-09-01

The modelling procedures developed for the long-term prediction of the corrosion of used fuel and of titanium and copper nuclear waste containers are described. The corrosion behaviour of these materials changes with time as the conditions within the conceptual disposal vault evolve from an early warm, oxidizing phase to an indefinite period of cool, anoxic conditions. For the two candidate container materials, this evolution of conditions means that the containers will be initially susceptible to localized corrosion but that in the long-term, corrosion should be more general in nature. The propagation of the pitting of Cu and of the crevice corrosion of Ti alloys is modelled using statistical models. General corrosion processes are modelled deterministically. For the fuel, deterministic electrochemical models have been developed to predict the long-term dissolution rate of U0 2 . The corrosion behaviour of materials in the disposal vault can be influenced by reengineering the vault environment. For instance, increasing the areal loading of containers will produce higher vault temperatures resulting in more extensive drying of the porous backfill materials. The initiation of crevice corrosion on Ti may then be delayed, leading to longer container lifetimes. For copper containers, minimizing the amount Of O 2 initially trapped in the pores of the backfill, or adding reducing agents to consume this O 2 faster, will limit the extent of corrosion, permitting a reduction of the container wall thickness necessary for containment. (author). 55 refs., 19 figs

Lesions of the amygdala central nucleus abolish lipoprivic-enhanced responding during oil-predicting conditioned stimuli.

Science.gov (United States)

Benoit, S C; Morell, J R; Davidson, T L

1999-12-01

T. L. Davidson, A. M. Altizer, S. C. Benoit, E. K. Walls, and T. L. Powley (1997) reported that rats show facilitated responding to conditioned stimuli (CSs) that predict oil, after administration of the lipoprivic agent, Na-2-mercaptoacetate (MA). This facilitation was blocked by vagal deafferentation. The present article extends that investigation to another structure, the amygdala central nucleus (CN). The CN receives inputs from dorsal vagal nuclei, and neurotoxic lesions of this nucleus are reported to abolish feeding in response to lipoprivic challenges. In Experiment 1, rats with ibotenic acid (IBO) lesions of the CN failed to show enhanced appetitive responding during oil-predicting CSs after administration of MA. Experiment 2 used a conditioned taste-aversion procedure to establish that rats with IBO lesions of the CN were able to discriminate the tastes of sucrose and peanut oil and had intact CS-US representations. It is concluded that the amygdala CN is a necessary structure for the detection of lipoprivic challenges.

Predictability of soil moisture and streamflow on subseasonal timescales: A case study

Science.gov (United States)

Orth, Rene; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

2013-10-01

Hydrological forecasts constitute an important tool in water resource management, especially in the case of impending extreme events. This study investigates the potential predictability of soil moisture and streamflow in Switzerland using a conceptual model including a simple water balance representation and a snow module. Our results show that simulated soil moisture and streamflow are more predictable (as indicated by significantly improved performance compared to climatology) until lead times of approximately 1 week and 2-3 days, respectively, when using initial soil moisture information and climatological atmospheric forcing. Using also initial snow information and seasonal weather forecasts as forcing, the predictable lead time doubles in case of soil moisture and triples for streamflow. The skill contributions of the additional information vary with altitude; at low altitudes the precipitation forecast is most important, whereas in mountainous areas the temperature forecast and the initial snow information are the most valuable contributors. We find furthermore that the soil moisture and streamflow forecast skills increase with increasing initial soil moisture anomalies. Comparing the respective value of realistic initial conditions and state-of-the-art forcing forecasts, we show that the former are generally more important for soil moisture forecasts, whereas the latter are more valuable for streamflow forecasts. To relate the derived predictabilities to respective soil moisture and streamflow memories investigated in other publications, we additionally illustrate the similarity between the concepts of memory and predictability as measures of persistence in the last part of this study.

Resting heart rate variability predicts safety learning and fear extinction in an interoceptive fear conditioning paradigm.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Meike Pappens

Full Text Available This study aimed to investigate whether interindividual differences in autonomic inhibitory control predict safety learning and fear extinction in an interoceptive fear conditioning paradigm. Data from a previously reported study (N = 40 were extended (N = 17 and re-analyzed to test whether healthy participants' resting heart rate variability (HRV - a proxy of cardiac vagal tone - predicts learning performance. The conditioned stimulus (CS was a slight sensation of breathlessness induced by a flow resistor, the unconditioned stimulus (US was an aversive short-lasting suffocation experience induced by a complete occlusion of the breathing circuitry. During acquisition, the paired group received 6 paired CS-US presentations; the control group received 6 explicitly unpaired CS-US presentations. In the extinction phase, both groups were exposed to 6 CS-only presentations. Measures included startle blink EMG, skin conductance responses (SCR and US-expectancy ratings. Resting HRV significantly predicted the startle blink EMG learning curves both during acquisition and extinction. In the unpaired group, higher levels of HRV at rest predicted safety learning to the CS during acquisition. In the paired group, higher levels of HRV were associated with better extinction. Our findings suggest that the strength or integrity of prefrontal inhibitory mechanisms involved in safety- and extinction learning can be indexed by HRV at rest.

Prediction models and control algorithms for predictive applications of setback temperature in cooling systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moon, Jin Woo; Yoon, Younju; Jeon, Young-Hoon; Kim, Sooyoung

2017-01-01

Highlights: • Initial ANN model was developed for predicting the time to the setback temperature. • Initial model was optimized for producing accurate output. • Optimized model proved its prediction accuracy. • ANN-based algorithms were developed and tested their performance. • ANN-based algorithms presented superior thermal comfort or energy efficiency. - Abstract: In this study, a temperature control algorithm was developed to apply a setback temperature predictively for the cooling system of a residential building during occupied periods by residents. An artificial neural network (ANN) model was developed to determine the required time for increasing the current indoor temperature to the setback temperature. This study involved three phases: development of the initial ANN-based prediction model, optimization and testing of the initial model, and development and testing of three control algorithms. The development and performance testing of the model and algorithm were conducted using TRNSYS and MATLAB. Through the development and optimization process, the final ANN model employed indoor temperature and the temperature difference between the current and target setback temperature as two input neurons. The optimal number of hidden layers, number of neurons, learning rate, and moment were determined to be 4, 9, 0.6, and 0.9, respectively. The tangent–sigmoid and pure-linear transfer function was used in the hidden and output neurons, respectively. The ANN model used 100 training data sets with sliding-window method for data management. Levenberg-Marquart training method was employed for model training. The optimized model had a prediction accuracy of 0.9097 root mean square errors when compared with the simulated results. Employing the ANN model, ANN-based algorithms maintained indoor temperatures better within target ranges. Compared to the conventional algorithm, the ANN-based algorithms reduced the duration of time, in which the indoor temperature

Fractional differential equation with the fuzzy initial condition

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sadia Arshad

2011-02-01

Full Text Available In this paper we study the existence and uniqueness of the solution for a class of fractional differential equation with fuzzy initial value. The fractional derivatives are considered in the Riemann-Liouville sense.

Importance of initial buoyancy field on evolution of mantle thermal structure: Implications of surface boundary conditions

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Petar Glišović

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Although there has been significant progress in the seismic imaging of mantle heterogeneity, the outstanding issue that remains to be resolved is the unknown distribution of mantle temperature anomalies in the distant geological past that give rise to the present-day anomalies inferred by global tomography models. To address this question, we present 3-D convection models in compressible and self-gravitating mantle initialised by different hypothetical temperature patterns. A notable feature of our forward convection modelling is the use of self-consistent coupling of the motion of surface tectonic plates to the underlying mantle flow, without imposing prescribed surface velocities (i.e., plate-like boundary condition. As an approximation for the surface mechanical conditions before plate tectonics began to operate we employ the no-slip (rigid boundary condition. A rigid boundary condition demonstrates that the initial thermally-dominated structure is preserved, and its geographical location is fixed during the evolution of mantle flow. Considering the impact of different assumed surface boundary conditions (rigid and plate-like on the evolution of thermal heterogeneity in the mantle we suggest that the intrinsic buoyancy of seven superplumes is most-likely resolved in the tomographic images of present-day mantle thermal structure. Our convection simulations with a plate-like boundary condition reveal that the evolution of an initial cold anomaly beneath the Java-Indonesian trench system yields a long-term, stable pattern of thermal heterogeneity in the lowermost mantle that resembles the present-day Large Low Shear Velocity Provinces (LLSVPs, especially below the Pacific. The evolution of subduction zones may be, however, influenced by the mantle-wide flow driven by deeply-rooted and long-lived superplumes since Archean times. These convection models also detect the intrinsic buoyancy of the Perm Anomaly that has been identified as a unique

Prediction of the optimum hybridization conditions of dot-blot-SNP analysis using estimated melting temperature of oligonucleotide probes.

Science.gov (United States)

Shiokai, Sachiko; Kitashiba, Hiroyasu; Nishio, Takeshi

2010-08-01

Although the dot-blot-SNP technique is a simple cost-saving technique suitable for genotyping of many plant individuals, optimization of hybridization and washing conditions for each SNP marker requires much time and labor. For prediction of the optimum hybridization conditions for each probe, we compared T (m) values estimated from nucleotide sequences using the DINAMelt web server, measured T (m) values, and hybridization conditions yielding allele-specific signals. The estimated T (m) values were comparable to the measured T (m) values with small differences of less than 3 degrees C for most of the probes. There were differences of approximately 14 degrees C between the specific signal detection conditions and estimated T (m) values. Change of one level of SSC concentrations of 0.1, 0.2, 0.5, and 1.0x SSC corresponded to a difference of approximately 5 degrees C in optimum signal detection temperature. Increasing the sensitivity of signal detection by shortening the exposure time to X-ray film changed the optimum hybridization condition for specific signal detection. Addition of competitive oligonucleotides to the hybridization mixture increased the suitable hybridization conditions by 1.8. Based on these results, optimum hybridization conditions for newly produced dot-blot-SNP markers will become predictable.

Development and validation of a multilevel model for predicting workload under routine and nonroutine conditions in an air traffic management center.

Science.gov (United States)

Neal, Andrew; Hannah, Sam; Sanderson, Penelope; Bolland, Scott; Mooij, Martijn; Murphy, Sean

2014-03-01

The aim of this study was to develop a model capable of predicting variability in the mental workload experienced by frontline operators under routine and nonroutine conditions. Excess workload is a risk that needs to be managed in safety-critical industries. Predictive models are needed to manage this risk effectively yet are difficult to develop. Much of the difficulty stems from the fact that workload prediction is a multilevel problem. A multilevel workload model was developed in Study I with data collected from an en route air traffic management center. Dynamic density metrics were used to predict variability in workload within and between work units while controlling for variability among raters.The model was cross-validated in Studies 2 and 3 with the use of a high-fidelity simulator. Reported workload generally remained within the bounds of the 90% prediction interval in Studies 2 and 3. Workload crossed the upper bound of the prediction interval only under nonroutine conditions. Qualitative analyses suggest that nonroutine events caused workload to cross the upper bound of the prediction interval because the controllers could not manage their workload strategically. The model performed well under both routine and nonroutine conditions and over different patterns of workload variation. Workload prediction models can be used to support both strategic and tactical workload management. Strategic uses include the analysis of historical and projected workflows and the assessment of staffing needs.Tactical uses include the dynamic reallocation of resources to meet changes in demand.

Least squares approach for initial data recovery in dynamic data-driven applications simulations

KAUST Repository

Douglas, C.

2010-12-01

In this paper, we consider the initial data recovery and the solution update based on the local measured data that are acquired during simulations. Each time new data is obtained, the initial condition, which is a representation of the solution at a previous time step, is updated. The update is performed using the least squares approach. The objective function is set up based on both a measurement error as well as a penalization term that depends on the prior knowledge about the solution at previous time steps (or initial data). Various numerical examples are considered, where the penalization term is varied during the simulations. Numerical examples demonstrate that the predictions are more accurate if the initial data are updated during the simulations. © Springer-Verlag 2011.

Citizen participation and citizen initiatives

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Matthoefer, H.

1977-01-01

Contents: Social conditions for citizen initiatives - technical change and employment - crisis behaviour - socio-psychological analysis of political planning; legitimation - presentation and criticism - conditions for citizen initiatives coming into being within the field of tension citizen : administration - legal problems of citizen initiatives - environmental protection in the energy discussion; participation; models. (HP) [de

Optimization the Initial Weights of Artificial Neural Networks via Genetic Algorithm Applied to Hip Bone Fracture Prediction

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yu-Tzu Chang

2012-01-01

Full Text Available This paper aims to find the optimal set of initial weights to enhance the accuracy of artificial neural networks (ANNs by using genetic algorithms (GA. The sample in this study included 228 patients with first low-trauma hip fracture and 215 patients without hip fracture, both of them were interviewed with 78 questions. We used logistic regression to select 5 important factors (i.e., bone mineral density, experience of fracture, average hand grip strength, intake of coffee, and peak expiratory flow rate for building artificial neural networks to predict the probabilities of hip fractures. Three-layer (one hidden layer ANNs models with back-propagation training algorithms were adopted. The purpose in this paper is to find the optimal initial weights of neural networks via genetic algorithm to improve the predictability. Area under the ROC curve (AUC was used to assess the performance of neural networks. The study results showed the genetic algorithm obtained an AUC of 0.858±0.00493 on modeling data and 0.802 ± 0.03318 on testing data. They were slightly better than the results of our previous study (0.868±0.00387 and 0.796±0.02559, resp.. Thus, the preliminary study for only using simple GA has been proved to be effective for improving the accuracy of artificial neural networks.

PREDICTION AND ANALYSIS OF SLOVAKIAN TIMBER TRADE ON GLOBAL MARKET CONDITIONS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Miloš Gejdoš

2017-11-01

Full Text Available In Slovakian forestry the main source of finance is the wood sale. The main aim of this paper is to evaluate the assortments supply structure (quality management, prices development for the coniferous sawlogs and to set the future prediction of this development in new global market conditions, which are affected mainly by the global climate changes. Price changes were analysed for the period of the years from 2000 to March 2016 for the spruce and fir sawlogs. Data about the volume supply of raw-wood assortments in Slovakia for years 2005-2014 were collected from “Green Reports“ published by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development of the Slovak Republic. From the influence factors in the studied period, the biggest impact was assigned to the global economic crisis. The prediction captures the further decline of prices of raw-wood assortments. In the second half of the year 2016 the price of sawlogs decreased by € 4 per 1 m3. Local impacts, the structure of wood processors and specific trade area in Slovakia affected substantially the structure of assortments on Market. There is also some space for a better evaluation of harvested wood.

Mechanistic prediction of fission product release under normal and accident conditions: key uncertainties that need better resolution

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rest, J.

1983-09-01

A theoretical model has been used for predicting the behavior of fission gas and volatile fission products (VFPs) in UO 2 -base fuels during steady-state and transient conditions. This model represents an attempt to develop an efficient predictive capability for the full range of possible reactor operating conditions. Fission products released from the fuel are assumed to reach the fuel surface by successively diffusing (via atomic and gas-bubble mobility) from the grains to grain faces and then to the grain edges, where the fission products are released through a network of interconnected tunnels of fission-gas induced and fabricated porosity. The model provides for a multi-region calculation and uses only one size class to characterize a distribution of fission gas bubbles

Recent developments in predictive uncertainty assessment based on the model conditional processor approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G. Coccia

2011-10-01

Full Text Available The work aims at discussing the role of predictive uncertainty in flood forecasting and flood emergency management, its relevance to improve the decision making process and the techniques to be used for its assessment.

Real time flood forecasting requires taking into account predictive uncertainty for a number of reasons. Deterministic hydrological/hydraulic forecasts give useful information about real future events, but their predictions, as usually done in practice, cannot be taken and used as real future occurrences but rather used as pseudo-measurements of future occurrences in order to reduce the uncertainty of decision makers. Predictive Uncertainty (PU is in fact defined as the probability of occurrence of a future value of a predictand (such as water level, discharge or water volume conditional upon prior observations and knowledge as well as on all the information we can obtain on that specific future value from model forecasts. When dealing with commensurable quantities, as in the case of floods, PU must be quantified in terms of a probability distribution function which will be used by the emergency managers in their decision process in order to improve the quality and reliability of their decisions.

After introducing the concept of PU, the presently available processors are introduced and discussed in terms of their benefits and limitations. In this work the Model Conditional Processor (MCP has been extended to the possibility of using two joint Truncated Normal Distributions (TNDs, in order to improve adaptation to low and high flows.

The paper concludes by showing the results of the application of the MCP on two case studies, the Po river in Italy and the Baron Fork river, OK, USA. In the Po river case the data provided by the Civil Protection of the Emilia Romagna region have been used to implement an operational example, where the predicted variable is the observed water level. In the Baron Fork River

Evaluating the influence of initial magnetization conditions on extracted exchange parameters in NMR relaxation experiments: applications to CPMG and CEST

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yuwen, Tairan; Sekhar, Ashok; Kay, Lewis E., E-mail: kay@pound.med.utoronto.ca [The University of Toronto, Departments of Molecular Genetics, Biochemistry and Chemistry (Canada)

2016-08-15

Transient excursions of native protein states to functionally relevant higher energy conformations often occur on the μs–ms timescale. NMR spectroscopy has emerged as an important tool to probe such processes using techniques such as Carr–Purcell–Meiboom–Gill (CPMG) relaxation dispersion and Chemical Exchange Saturation Transfer (CEST). The extraction of kinetic and structural parameters from these measurements is predicated upon mathematical modeling of the resulting relaxation profiles, which in turn relies on knowledge of the initial magnetization conditions at the start of the CPMG/CEST relaxation elements in these experiments. Most fitting programs simply assume initial magnetization conditions that are given by equilibrium populations, which may be incorrect in certain implementations of experiments. In this study we have quantified the systematic errors in extracted parameters that are generated from analyses of CPMG and CEST experiments using incorrect initial boundary conditions. We find that the errors in exchange rates (k{sub ex}) and populations (p{sub E}) are typically small (<10 %) and thus can be safely ignored in most cases. However, errors become larger and cannot be fully neglected (20–40 %) as k{sub ex} falls near the lower limit of each method or when short CPMG/CEST relaxation elements are used in these experiments. The source of the errors can be rationalized and their magnitude given by a simple functional form. Despite the fact that errors tend to be small, it is recommended that the correct boundary conditions be implemented in fitting programs so as to obtain as robust estimates of exchange parameters as possible.

Initial Serum Ferritin Predicts Number of Therapeutic Phlebotomies to Iron Depletion in Secondary Iron Overload

Science.gov (United States)

Panch, Sandhya R.; Yau, Yu Ying; West, Kamille; Diggs, Karen; Sweigart, Tamsen; Leitman, Susan F.

2014-01-01

Background Therapeutic phlebotomy is increasingly used in patients with transfusional siderosis to mitigate organ injury associated with iron overload (IO). Laboratory response parameters and therapy duration are not well characterized in such patients. Methods We retrospectively evaluated 99 consecutive patients undergoing therapeutic phlebotomy for either transfusional IO (TIO, n=88; 76% had undergone hematopoietic transplantation) or non-transfusional indications (hyperferritinemia or erythrocytosis) (n=11). CBC, serum ferritin (SF), transferrin saturation, and transaminases were measured serially. Phlebotomy goal was an SF< 300 mcg/L. Results Mean SF prior to phlebotomy among TIO and nontransfusional subjects was 3,093 and 396 mcg/L, respectively. Transfusion burden in the TIO group was 94 ± 108 (mean ± SD) RBC units; about half completed therapy with 24 ± 23 phlebotomies (range 1–103). One-third was lost to follow-up. Overall, 15% had mild adverse effects, including headache, nausea, and dizziness, mainly during first phlebotomy. Prior transfusion burden correlated poorly with initial ferritin and total number of phlebotomies to target (NPT) in the TIO group. However, NPT was strongly correlated with initial SF (R2=0.8; p<0.0001) in both TIO and nontransfusional groups. ALT decreased significantly with serial phlebotomy in all groups (mean initial and final values, 61 and 39 U/L; p = 0.03). Conclusions Initial SF but not transfusion burden predicted number of phlebotomies to target in patients with TIO. Despite good treatment tolerance, significant losses to follow-up were noted. Providing patients with an estimated phlebotomy number and follow-up duration, and thus a finite endpoint, may improve compliance. Hepatic function improved with iron off-loading. PMID:25209879

Predicting Recurrence and Progression of Noninvasive Papillary Bladder Cancer at Initial Presentation Based on Quantitative Gene Expression Profiles

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Birkhahn, M.; Mitra, A.P.; Williams, Johan

2010-01-01

% specificity. Since this is a small retrospective study using medium-throughput profiling, larger confirmatory studies are needed. Conclusions: Gene expression profiling across relevant cancer pathways appears to be a promising approach for Ta bladder tumor outcome prediction at initial diagnosis......Background: Currently, tumor grade is the best predictor of outcome at first presentation of noninvasive papillary (Ta) bladder cancer. However, reliable predictors of Ta tumor recurrence and progression for individual patients, which could optimize treatment and follow-up schedules based...... on specific tumor biology, are yet to be identified. Objective: To identify genes predictive for recurrence and progression in Ta bladder cancer at first presentation using a quantitative, pathway-specific approach. Design, setting, and participants: Retrospective study of patients with Ta G2/3 bladder tumors...

The prediction of failure situations using the CTOD concept based on the engineering treatment model (ETM)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schwalbe, K.H.

1985-01-01

Under the assumption of plane stress conditions, the CTOD concept is extended such that a full R-curve methodology arises consisting of an experimental procedure for the determination of the R-curve and of the driving force prediction. Predictions of initiation and maximum loads are in reasonable agreement with experimental results. (orig./HP)

[Prediction of the total Japanese cedar pollen counts based on male flower-setting conditions of standard trees].

Science.gov (United States)

Yuta, Atsushi; Ukai, Kotaro; Sakakura, Yasuo; Tani, Hideshi; Matsuda, Fukiko; Yang, Tian-qun; Majima, Yuichi

2002-07-01

We made a prediction of the Japanese cedar (Cryptomeria japonica) pollen counts at Tsu city based on male flower-setting conditions of standard trees. The 69 standard trees from 23 kinds of clones, planted at Mie Prefecture Science and Technology Promotion Center (Hakusan, Mie) in 1964, were selected. Male flower-setting conditions for 276 faces (69 trees x 4 points of the compass) were scored from 0 to 3. The average of scores and total pollen counts from 1988 to 2000 was analyzed. As the results, the average scores from standard trees and total pollen counts except two mass pollen-scattered years in 1995 and 2000 had a positive correlation (r = 0.914) by linear function. On the mass pollen-scattered years, pollen counts were influenced from the previous year. Therefore, the score of the present year minus that of the previous year were used for analysis. The average scores from male flower-setting conditions and pollen counts had a strong positive correlation (r = 0.994) when positive scores by taking account of the previous year were analyzed. We conclude that prediction of pollen counts are possible based on the male flower-setting conditions of standard trees.

On the initial condition problem of the time domain PMCHWT surface integral equation

KAUST Repository

Uysal, Ismail Enes

2017-05-13

Non-physical, linearly increasing and constant current components are induced in marching on-in-time solution of time domain surface integral equations when initial conditions on time derivatives of (unknown) equivalent currents are not enforced properly. This problem can be remedied by solving the time integral of the surface integral for auxiliary currents that are defined to be the time derivatives of the equivalent currents. Then the equivalent currents are obtained by numerically differentiating the auxiliary ones. In this work, this approach is applied to the marching on-in-time solution of the time domain Poggio-Miller-Chan-Harrington-Wu-Tsai surface integral equation enforced on dispersive/plasmonic scatterers. Accuracy of the proposed method is demonstrated by a numerical example.

Long-term characteristics of geological conditions in Japan. Pt. 1. Fundamental concept for future's prediction of geological conditions and the subjects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tanaka, Kazuhiro; Chigira, Masahiro.

1997-01-01

It is very important to evaluate the long-term stability of geological conditions such as volcanic activity, uplift-subsidence, earthquakes, faulting and sea level change when the long-term safety performance of HLW geological disposal is investigated. We proposed the extrapolation method using the geological date obtained in the geologic time of the last 500 ka to predict the future's tectonic movements in Japan. Furthermore, we extract geological conditions that would affect the long-term safety of HLW geological disposal with regard to direct and indirect radionuclide release scenarios. As a result, it was concluded that volcanic activity and tectonic movements including faulting and uplift-subsidence, should be considered and their surveying system and evaluating method should be developed. (author)

Predictive Accuracy of Sweep Frequency Impedance Technology in Identifying Conductive Conditions in Newborns.

Science.gov (United States)

Aithal, Venkatesh; Kei, Joseph; Driscoll, Carlie; Murakoshi, Michio; Wada, Hiroshi

2018-02-01

Diagnosing conductive conditions in newborns is challenging for both audiologists and otolaryngologists. Although high-frequency tympanometry (HFT), acoustic stapedial reflex tests, and wideband absorbance measures are useful diagnostic tools, there is performance measure variability in their detection of middle ear conditions. Additional diagnostic sensitivity and specificity measures gained through new technology such as sweep frequency impedance (SFI) measures may assist in the diagnosis of middle ear dysfunction in newborns. The purpose of this study was to determine the test performance of SFI to predict the status of the outer and middle ear in newborns against commonly used reference standards. Automated auditory brainstem response (AABR), HFT (1000 Hz), transient evoked otoacoustic emission (TEOAE), distortion product otoacoustic emission (DPOAE), and SFI tests were administered to the study sample. A total of 188 neonates (98 males and 90 females) with a mean gestational age of 39.4 weeks were included in the sample. Mean age at the time of testing was 44.4 hr. Diagnostic accuracy of SFI was assessed in terms of its ability to identify conductive conditions in neonates when compared with nine different reference standards (including four single tests [AABR, HFT, TEOAE, and DPOAE] and five test batteries [HFT + DPOAE, HFT + TEOAE, DPOAE + TEOAE, DPOAE + AABR, and TEOAE + AABR]), using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis and traditional test performance measures such as sensitivity and specificity. The test performance of SFI against the test battery reference standard of HFT + DPOAE and single reference standard of HFT was high with an area under the ROC curve (AROC) of 0.87 and 0.82, respectively. Although the HFT + DPOAE test battery reference standard performed better than the HFT reference standard in predicting middle ear conductive conditions in neonates, the difference in AROC was not significant. Further analysis revealed that the

Behaviour of rock-like oxide fuels under reactivity-initiated accident conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kazuyuki, Kusagaya; Takehiko, Nakamura; Makio, Yoshinaga; Hiroshi, Akie; Toshiyuki, Yamashita; Hiroshi, Uetsuka

2002-01-01

Pulse irradiation tests of three types of un-irradiated rock-like oxide (ROX) fuel - yttria-stabilised zirconia (YSZ) single phase, YSZ and spinel (MgAl 2 O 4 ) homogeneous mixture and particle-dispersed YSZ/spinel - were conducted in the Nuclear Safety Research Reactor to investigate the fuel behaviour under reactivity-initiated accident conditions. The ROX fuels failed at fuel volumetric enthalpies above 10 GJ/m 3 , which was comparable to that of un-irradiated UO 2 fuel. The failure mode of the ROX fuels, however, was quite different from that of the UO 2 fuel. The ROX fuels failed with fuel pellet melting and a part of the molten fuel was released out to the surrounding coolant water. In spite of the release, no significant mechanical energy generation due to fuel/coolant thermal interaction was observed in the tested enthalpy range below∼12 GJ/m 3 . The YSZ type and homogenous YSZ/spinel type ROX fuels failed by cladding burst when their temperatures peaked, while the particle-dispersed YSZ/spinel type ROX fuel seemed to have failed by cladding local melting. (author)

Prediction of summer monsoon rainfall over India using the NCEP climate forecast system

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pattanaik, D.R. [India Meteorological Department (IMD), New Delhi (India); Kumar, Arun [Climate Prediction Center, National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/NWS/NOAA, Camp Springs, MD (United States)

2010-03-15

The performance of a dynamical seasonal forecast system is evaluated for the prediction of summer monsoon rainfall over the Indian region during June to September (JJAS). The evaluation is based on the National Centre for Environmental Prediction's (NCEP) climate forecast system (CFS) initialized during March, April and May and integrated for a period of 9 months with a 15 ensemble members for 25 years period from 1981 to 2005. The CFS's hindcast climatology during JJAS of March (lag-3), April (lag-2) and May (lag-1) initial conditions show mostly an identical pattern of rainfall similar to that of verification climatology with the rainfall maxima (one over the west-coast of India and the other over the head Bay of Bengal region) well simulated. The pattern correlation between verification and forecast climatology over the global tropics and Indian monsoon region (IMR) bounded by 50 E-110 E and 10 S-35 N shows significant correlation coefficient (CCs). The skill of simulation of broad scale monsoon circulation index (Webster and Yang; WY index) is quite good in the CFS with highly significant CC between the observed and predicted by the CFS from the March, April and May forecasts. High skill in forecasting El Nino event is also noted for the CFS March, April and May initial conditions, whereas, the skill of the simulation of Indian Ocean Dipole is poor and is basically due to the poor skill of prediction of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean. Over the IMR the skill of monsoon rainfall forecast during JJAS as measured by the spatial Anomaly CC between forecast rainfall anomaly and the observed rainfall anomaly during 1991, 1994, 1997 and 1998 is high (almost of the order of 0.6), whereas, during the year 1982, 1984, 1985, 1987 and 1989 the ACC is only around 0.3. By using lower and upper tropospheric forecast winds during JJAS over the regions of significant CCs as predictors for the All India Summer Monsoon

Outcome Prediction in Mathematical Models of Immune Response to Infection.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Manuel Mai

Full Text Available Clinicians need to predict patient outcomes with high accuracy as early as possible after disease inception. In this manuscript, we show that patient-to-patient variability sets a fundamental limit on outcome prediction accuracy for a general class of mathematical models for the immune response to infection. However, accuracy can be increased at the expense of delayed prognosis. We investigate several systems of ordinary differential equations (ODEs that model the host immune response to a pathogen load. Advantages of systems of ODEs for investigating the immune response to infection include the ability to collect data on large numbers of 'virtual patients', each with a given set of model parameters, and obtain many time points during the course of the infection. We implement patient-to-patient variability v in the ODE models by randomly selecting the model parameters from distributions with coefficients of variation v that are centered on physiological values. We use logistic regression with one-versus-all classification to predict the discrete steady-state outcomes of the system. We find that the prediction algorithm achieves near 100% accuracy for v = 0, and the accuracy decreases with increasing v for all ODE models studied. The fact that multiple steady-state outcomes can be obtained for a given initial condition, i.e. the basins of attraction overlap in the space of initial conditions, limits the prediction accuracy for v > 0. Increasing the elapsed time of the variables used to train and test the classifier, increases the prediction accuracy, while adding explicit external noise to the ODE models decreases the prediction accuracy. Our results quantify the competition between early prognosis and high prediction accuracy that is frequently encountered by clinicians.

Heterogeneous nucleation helps the search for initial crystallization conditions of γ-glutamyl transpeptidase from Bacillus licheniformis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lin, Long-Liu; Merlino, Antonello

2013-01-01

An additional example in which heterogeneous nucleation has helped in the search for crystallization conditions of a protein is reported. Optimization of the crystallization conditions led to the formation of single crystals of γ-glutamyl transpeptidase from B. licheniformis that diffracted to about 3.0 Å resolution. Here, the crystallization and preliminary X-ray diffraction studies of Bacillus licheniformis γ-glutamyl transpeptidase (BlGT) are reported. The serendipitous finding of heterogeneous nucleants in the initial experiments provided the first crystallization conditions for the protein. Crystals were grown by hanging-drop vapour diffusion using a precipitant solution consisting of 20%(w/v) PEG 3350, 0.2 M magnesium chloride hexahydrate, 0.1 M Tris–HCl pH 8.2. The protein crystallized in the orthorhombic space group P2 1 2 1 2 1 , with one heterodimer per asymmetric unit and unit-cell parameters a = 60.90, b = 61.97, c = 148.24 Å. The BlGT crystals diffracted to 2.95 Å resolution

Predictive risk factors of postoperative urinary incontinence following holmium laser enucleation of the prostate during the initial learning period

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shuichiro Kobayashi

Full Text Available ABSTRACT Purpose: To determine the predictive factors for postoperative urinary incontinence (UI following holmium laser enucleation of the prostate (HoLEP during the initial learning period. Patients and Methods: We evaluated 127 patients with benign prostatic hyperplasia who underwent HoLEP between January 2011 and December 2013. We recorded clinical variables, including blood loss, serum prostate-specific antigen levels, and the presence or absence of UI. Blood loss was estimated as a decline in postoperative hemoglobin levels. The predictive factors for postoperative UI were determined using a multivariable logistic regression analysis. Results: Postoperative UI occurred in 31 patients (24.4%, but it cured in 29 patients (93.5% after a mean duration of 12 weeks. Enucleation time >100 min (p=0.043 and blood loss >2.5g/dL (p=0.032 were identified as significant and independent risk factors for postoperative UI. Conclusions: Longer enucleation time and increased blood loss were independent predictors of postoperative UI in patients who underwent HoLEP during the initial learning period. Surgeons in training should take care to perform speedy enucleation maneuver with hemostasis.

Initial orthostatic hypotension: review of a forgotten condition

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wieling, Wouter; Krediet, C. T. Paul; van Dijk, Nynke; Linzer, Mark; Tschakovsky, Michael E.

2007-01-01

Several studies have shown that standing up is a frequent (3-10 %) trigger of loss of consciousness both in young and old subjects. An exaggerated transient BP (blood pressure) fall upon standing is the underlying cause. IOH (initial orthostatic hypotension) is defined as a transient BP decrease

Personality Traits and Training Initiation Process: Intention, Planning, and Action Initiation.

Science.gov (United States)

Laguna, Mariola; Purc, Ewelina

2016-01-01

The article aims at investigating the role of personality traits in relation to training initiation. Training initiation is conceptualized as a goal realization process, and explained using goal theories. There are three stages of the process analyzed: intention to undertake training, plan formulation, and actual training undertaking. Two studies tested the relationships between five personality traits, defined according to the five factor model, and the stages of the goal realization process. In Study 1, which explains training intention and training plans' formulation, 155 employees participated. In Study 2, which was time-lagged with two measurement points, and which explains intention, plans, and training actions undertaken, the data from 176 employees was collected at 3 month intervals. The results of these studies show that personality traits, mainly openness to experience, predict the training initiation process to some degree: intention, plans, and actual action initiation. The findings allow us to provide recommendations for practitioners responsible for human resource development. The assessment of openness to experience in employees helps predict their motivation to participate in training activities. To increase training motivation it is vital to strengthen intentions to undertake training, and to encourage training action planning.

Benchmarking ensemble streamflow prediction skill in the UK

Science.gov (United States)

Harrigan, Shaun; Prudhomme, Christel; Parry, Simon; Smith, Katie; Tanguy, Maliko

2018-03-01

Skilful hydrological forecasts at sub-seasonal to seasonal lead times would be extremely beneficial for decision-making in water resources management, hydropower operations, and agriculture, especially during drought conditions. Ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) is a well-established method for generating an ensemble of streamflow forecasts in the absence of skilful future meteorological predictions, instead using initial hydrologic conditions (IHCs), such as soil moisture, groundwater, and snow, as the source of skill. We benchmark when and where the ESP method is skilful across a diverse sample of 314 catchments in the UK and explore the relationship between catchment storage and ESP skill. The GR4J hydrological model was forced with historic climate sequences to produce a 51-member ensemble of streamflow hindcasts. We evaluated forecast skill seamlessly from lead times of 1 day to 12 months initialized at the first of each month over a 50-year hindcast period from 1965 to 2015. Results showed ESP was skilful against a climatology benchmark forecast in the majority of catchments across all lead times up to a year ahead, but the degree of skill was strongly conditional on lead time, forecast initialization month, and individual catchment location and storage properties. UK-wide mean ESP skill decayed exponentially as a function of lead time with continuous ranked probability skill scores across the year of 0.75, 0.20, and 0.11 for 1-day, 1-month, and 3-month lead times, respectively. However, skill was not uniform across all initialization months. For lead times up to 1 month, ESP skill was higher than average when initialized in summer and lower in winter months, whereas for longer seasonal and annual lead times skill was higher when initialized in autumn and winter months and lowest in spring. ESP was most skilful in the south and east of the UK, where slower responding catchments with higher soil moisture and groundwater storage are mainly located

Are abrupt climate changes predictable?

Science.gov (United States)

Ditlevsen, Peter

2013-04-01

It is taken for granted that the limited predictability in the initial value problem, the weather prediction, and the predictability of the statistics are two distinct problems. Lorenz (1975) dubbed this predictability of the first and the second kind respectively. Predictability of the first kind in a chaotic dynamical system is limited due to the well-known critical dependence on initial conditions. Predictability of the second kind is possible in an ergodic system, where either the dynamics is known and the phase space attractor can be characterized by simulation or the system can be observed for such long times that the statistics can be obtained from temporal averaging, assuming that the attractor does not change in time. For the climate system the distinction between predictability of the first and the second kind is fuzzy. This difficulty in distinction between predictability of the first and of the second kind is related to the lack of scale separation between fast and slow components of the climate system. The non-linear nature of the problem furthermore opens the possibility of multiple attractors, or multiple quasi-steady states. As the ice-core records show, the climate has been jumping between different quasi-stationary climates, stadials and interstadials through the Dansgaard-Oechger events. Such a jump happens very fast when a critical tipping point has been reached. The question is: Can such a tipping point be predicted? This is a new kind of predictability: the third kind. If the tipping point is reached through a bifurcation, where the stability of the system is governed by some control parameter, changing in a predictable way to a critical value, the tipping is predictable. If the sudden jump occurs because internal chaotic fluctuations, noise, push the system across a barrier, the tipping is as unpredictable as the triggering noise. In order to hint at an answer to this question, a careful analysis of the high temporal resolution NGRIP isotope

The impact of the uncertainty in the initial soil moisture condition of irrigated areas on the spatiotemporal characteristics of convective activity in Central Greece

Science.gov (United States)

Kotsopoulos, Stylianos; Ioannis, Tegoulias; Ioannis, Pytharoulis; Stergios, Kartsios; Dimitrios, Bampzelis; Theodore, Karacostas

2015-04-01

The region of Thessaly is the second largest plain in Greece and has a vital role in the financial life of the country, because of its significant agricultural production. The intensive and extensive cultivation of irrigated crops, in combination with the population increase and the alteration of precipitation patterns due to climate change, often leading the region to experience severe drought conditions, especially during the warm period of the year. The aim of the DAPHNE project is to tackle the problem of drought in this area by means of Weather Modification.In the framework of the project DAPHNE, the numerical weather prediction model WRF-ARW 3.5.1 is used to provide operational forecasts and hindcasts for the region of Thessaly. The goal of this study is to investigate the impact of the uncertainty in the initial soil moisture condition of irrigated areas, on the spatiotemporal characteristics of convective activity in the region of interest. To this end, six cases under the six most frequent synoptic conditions, which are associated with convective activity in the region of interest, are utilized, considering six different soil moisture initialization scenarios. In the first scenario (Control Run), the model is initialized with the surface soil moisture of the ECMWF analysis data, that usually does not take into account the modification of soil moisture due to agricultural activity in the area of interest. In the other five scenarios (Experiment 1,2,3,4,5) the soil moisture in the upper soil layers of the study area are modified from -50% to 50% of field capacity (-50%FC, -25%FC, FC, 25%FC, 50%FC),for the irrigated cropland.Three model domains, covering Europe, the Mediterranean Sea and northern Africa (d01), the wider area of Greece (d02) and central Greece - Thessaly region (d03) are used at horizontal grid-spacings of 15km, 5km and 1km respectively. ECMWF operational analyses at 6-hourly intervals (0.25ox0.25o lat.-long.) are imported as initial and

Determination and demarcation of fatigue crack initiation phase in rotating bending condition

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pasha, R.A.; Rehman, K.; Shah, M.

2012-01-01

In engineering applications, components often experience cyclic loading and therefore, have crack initiation propagation phase. In this research work experimental demarcation of fatigue crack initiation has been investigated. Initiation phase of fatigue life of Aluminium was determined by using single and two step fatigue loading test on four point rotating bending fatigue testing machine. Experimental data is used to determine the distinction between the initiation and propagation phase. Initiation phase is determined at different stress levels. The obtained results demonstrate the effect of stress level on initiation phase and propagation phase. (author)

The effects of tropical wind data on the prediction of ultralong waves

Science.gov (United States)

Baker, W. E.

1981-01-01

The influence of tropical wind data on the prediction of planetary waves were studied. Two assimilation experiments were performed, one with and one without FGGE tropical winds. The planetary wave error was then analyzed in 72 h forecasts from the initial conditions provided by the two assimilations.

Global Combustion Mechanisms for Use in CFD Modeling under Oxy-Fuel Conditions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Jimmy; Rasmussen, Christian Lund; Giselsson, Trine

2009-01-01

Two global multistep schemes, the two-step mechanism of Westbrook and Dryer (WD) and the four-step mechanism of Jones and Lindstedt (JL), have been refined for oxy-fuel conditions. Reference calculations were conducted with a detailed chemical kinetic mechanism, validated for oxy-fuel combustion...... conditions. In the modification approach, the initiating reactions involving hydrocarbon and oxygen were retained, while modifying the H-2-CO-CO2 reactions in order to improve prediction of major species concentrations. The main attention has been to capture the trend and level of CO predicted...... by the detailed mechanism as well as the correct equilibrium concentration. A CFD analysis of a propane oxy-fuel flame has been performed using both the original and modified mechanisms. Compared to the original schemes, the modified WD mechanism improved the prediction of the temperature field and of CO...

Next generation initiation techniques

Science.gov (United States)

Warner, Tom; Derber, John; Zupanski, Milija; Cohn, Steve; Verlinde, Hans

1993-01-01

Four-dimensional data assimilation strategies can generally be classified as either current or next generation, depending upon whether they are used operationally or not. Current-generation data-assimilation techniques are those that are presently used routinely in operational-forecasting or research applications. They can be classified into the following categories: intermittent assimilation, Newtonian relaxation, and physical initialization. It should be noted that these techniques are the subject of continued research, and their improvement will parallel the development of next generation techniques described by the other speakers. Next generation assimilation techniques are those that are under development but are not yet used operationally. Most of these procedures are derived from control theory or variational methods and primarily represent continuous assimilation approaches, in which the data and model dynamics are 'fitted' to each other in an optimal way. Another 'next generation' category is the initialization of convective-scale models. Intermittent assimilation systems use an objective analysis to combine all observations within a time window that is centered on the analysis time. Continuous first-generation assimilation systems are usually based on the Newtonian-relaxation or 'nudging' techniques. Physical initialization procedures generally involve the use of standard or nonstandard data to force some physical process in the model during an assimilation period. Under the topic of next-generation assimilation techniques, variational approaches are currently being actively developed. Variational approaches seek to minimize a cost or penalty function which measures a model's fit to observations, background fields and other imposed constraints. Alternatively, the Kalman filter technique, which is also under investigation as a data assimilation procedure for numerical weather prediction, can yield acceptable initial conditions for mesoscale models. The

A simple method to calculate first-passage time densities with arbitrary initial conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Nyberg, Markus; Ambjörnsson, Tobias; Lizana, Ludvig

2016-06-01

Numerous applications all the way from biology and physics to economics depend on the density of first crossings over a boundary. Motivated by the lack of general purpose analytical tools for computing first-passage time densities (FPTDs) for complex problems, we propose a new simple method based on the independent interval approximation (IIA). We generalise previous formulations of the IIA to include arbitrary initial conditions as well as to deal with discrete time and non-smooth continuous time processes. We derive a closed form expression for the FPTD in z and Laplace-transform space to a boundary in one dimension. Two classes of problems are analysed in detail: discrete time symmetric random walks (Markovian) and continuous time Gaussian stationary processes (Markovian and non-Markovian). Our results are in good agreement with Langevin dynamics simulations.

Lean mass predicts conditioned pain modulation in adolescents across weight status.

Science.gov (United States)

Stolzman, S; Hoeger Bement, M

2016-07-01

There is a wide continuum of conditioned pain modulation (CPM) in adults with older adults experiencing an attenuated CPM response compared with younger adults. Less is known for adolescents and the role of anthropometrics. Fifty-six adolescents (15.1 ± 1.8 years; 32 normal weight and 24 overweight/obese; 27 boys) completed in a CPM session that included anthropometric testing. Pressure pain thresholds were measured at the nailbed and deltoid muscle (test stimuli) with the foot submerged in a cool or ice water bath (conditioning stimulus). Weight status, body composition (Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry scan), physical activity levels and clinical pain were also evaluated. The CPM response in adolescents was similar across sites (nailbed vs. deltoid), weight status (normal vs. overweight/obese) and sex. CPM measured at the deltoid muscle was positively associated with left arm lean mass but not fat mass; lean mass of the arm uniquely predicted 10% of the CPM magnitude. CPM measured at the nailbed was positively correlated with physical activity levels. These results suggest that lean mass and physical activity levels may contribute to endogenous pain inhibition in adolescents across weight status. © 2016 European Pain Federation - EFIC®

Ignition condition and gain prediction for perturbed inertial confinement fusion targets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kishony, Roy; Shvarts, Dov

2001-01-01

The effect of perturbations on hot spot ignition is studied using full two-dimensional (2D) numerical simulations of the National Ignition Facility [J. D. Lindl, Phys. Plasmas 2, 3933 (1995)] direct drive Laboratory for Laser Energetics target design and newly derived 2D self-similar solutions for a perturbed burn wave propagation. It is shown that the required implosion velocity needed for ignition increases with the perturbation mode number and final amplitude, reaching an asymptotic value for high enough perturbation mode numbers, when the entire mixing zone no longer contributes to the ignition of the hot spot. Using the new self-similar solutions, ignition conditions for various perturbation mode numbers and amplitudes are obtained. These ignition conditions, which correspond to areal densities higher than needed for ignition in the symmetric case, are translated to a required increase in the implosion velocity needed for ignition, using the 1D Levendahl-Lindl scaling, in good agreement with the full 2D numerical simulation results. Finally, using the above results, a model for predicting the gain of a perturbed targets as a function of the perturbation spectra (single-mode and multi-mode) is presented, in good agreement with full numerical simulations

Topology in two dimensions. IV - CDM models with non-Gaussian initial conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Coles, Peter; Moscardini, Lauro; Plionis, Manolis; Lucchin, Francesco; Matarrese, Sabino; Messina, Antonio

1993-02-01

The results of N-body simulations with both Gaussian and non-Gaussian initial conditions are used here to generate projected galaxy catalogs with the same selection criteria as the Shane-Wirtanen counts of galaxies. The Euler-Poincare characteristic is used to compare the statistical nature of the projected galaxy clustering in these simulated data sets with that of the observed galaxy catalog. All the models produce a topology dominated by a meatball shift when normalized to the known small-scale clustering properties of galaxies. Models characterized by a positive skewness of the distribution of primordial density perturbations are inconsistent with the Lick data, suggesting problems in reconciling models based on cosmic textures with observations. Gaussian CDM models fit the distribution of cell counts only if they have a rather high normalization but possess too low a coherence length compared with the Lick counts. This suggests that a CDM model with extra large scale power would probably fit the available data.

Finite Difference Formulation for Prediction of Water Pollution

Science.gov (United States)

Johari, Hanani; Rusli, Nursalasawati; Yahya, Zainab

2018-03-01

Water is an important component of the earth. Human being and living organisms are demand for the quality of water. Human activity is one of the causes of the water pollution. The pollution happened give bad effect to the physical and characteristic of water contents. It is not practical to monitor all aspects of water flow and transport distribution. So, in order to help people to access to the polluted area, a prediction of water pollution concentration must be modelled. This study proposed a one-dimensional advection diffusion equation for predicting the water pollution concentration transport. The numerical modelling will be produced in order to predict the transportation of water pollution concentration. In order to approximate the advection diffusion equation, the implicit Crank Nicolson is used. For the purpose of the simulation, the boundary condition and initial condition, the spatial steps and time steps as well as the approximations of the advection diffusion equation have been encoded. The results of one dimensional advection diffusion equation have successfully been used to predict the transportation of water pollution concentration by manipulating the velocity and diffusion parameters.

The emotional and academic consequences of parental conditional regard: comparing conditional positive regard, conditional negative regard, and autonomy support as parenting practices.

Science.gov (United States)

Roth, Guy; Assor, Avi; Niemiec, Christopher P; Deci, Edward L; Ryan, Richard M

2009-07-01

The authors conducted 2 studies of 9th-grade Israeli adolescents (169 in Study 1, 156 in Study 2) to compare the parenting practices of conditional positive regard, conditional negative regard, and autonomy support using data from multiple reporters. Two socialization domains were studied: emotion control and academics. Results were consistent with the self-determination theory model of internalization, which posits that (a) conditional negative regard predicts feelings of resentment toward parents, which then predict dysregulation of negative emotions and academic disengagement; (b) conditional positive regard predicts feelings of internal compulsion, which then predict suppressive regulation of negative emotions and grade-focused academic engagement; and (c) autonomy support predicts sense of choice, which then predicts integrated regulation of negative emotions and interest-focused academic engagement. These findings suggest that even parents' use of conditional positive regard as a socialization practice has adverse emotional and academic consequences, relative to autonomy support.

Evaluation of optimization strategies and the effect of initial conditions on IMAT optimization using a leaf position optimization algorithm

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oliver, Mike; Jensen, Michael; Chen, Jeff; Wong, Eugene

2009-01-01

Intensity-modulated arc therapy (IMAT) is a rotational variant of intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) that can be implemented with or without angular dose rate variation. The purpose of this study is to assess optimization strategies and initial conditions using a leaf position optimization (LPO) algorithm altered for variable dose rate IMAT. A concave planning target volume (PTV) with a central cylindrical organ at risk (OAR) was used in this study. The initial IMAT arcs were approximated by multiple static beams at 5 deg. angular increments where multi-leaf collimator (MLC) leaf positions were determined from the beam's eye view to irradiate the PTV but avoid the OAR. For the optimization strategy, two arcs with arc ranges of 280 deg. and 150 deg. were employed and plans were created using LPO alone, variable dose rate optimization (VDRO) alone, simultaneous LPO and VDRO and sequential combinations of these strategies. To assess the MLC initialization effect, three single 360 deg. arc plans with different initial MLC configurations were generated using the simultaneous LPO and VDRO. The effect of changing optimization degrees of freedom was investigated by employing 3 deg., 5 deg. and 10 deg. angular sampling intervals for the two 280 deg., two 150 deg. and single arc plans using LPO and VDRO. The objective function value, a conformity index, a dose homogeneity index, mean dose to OAR and normal tissues were computed and used to evaluate the treatment plans. This study shows that the best optimization strategy for a concave target is to use simultaneous MLC LPO and VDRO. We found that the optimization result is sensitive to the choice of initial MLC aperture shapes suggesting that an LPO-based IMAT plan may not be able to overcome local minima for this geometry. In conclusion, simultaneous MLC leaf position and VDRO are needed with the most appropriate initial conditions (MLC positions, arc ranges and number of arcs) for IMAT.

Experimental characterization of initial conditions and spatio-temporal evolution of a small Atwood number Rayleigh-Taylor mixing layer

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mueschke, N J; Andrews, M J; Schilling, O

2005-09-26

The initial multi-mode interfacial velocity and density perturbations present at the onset of a small Atwood number, incompressible, miscible, Rayleigh-Taylor instability-driven mixing layer have been quantified using a combination of experimental techniques. The streamwise interfacial and spanwise interfacial perturbations were measured using high-resolution thermocouples and planar laser-induced fluorescence (PLIF), respectively. The initial multi-mode streamwise velocity perturbations at the two-fluid density interface were measured using particle-image velocimetry (PIV). It was found that the measured initial conditions describe an initially anisotropic state, in which the perturbations in the streamwise and spanwise directions are independent of one another. The evolution of various fluctuating velocity and density statistics, together with velocity and density variance spectra, were measured using PIV and high-resolution thermocouple data. The evolution of the velocity and density statistics is used to investigate the early-time evolution and the onset of strongly-nonlinear, transitional dynamics within the mixing layer. The early-time evolution of the density and vertical velocity variance spectra indicate that velocity fluctuations are the dominant mechanism driving the instability development. The implications of the present experimental measurements on the initialization of Reynolds-averaged turbulent transport and mixing models and of direct and large-eddy simulations of Rayleigh-Taylor instability-induced turbulence are discussed.

Initialization, Prediction and Diagnosis of the Rapid Intensification of Tropical Cyclones using the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator, ACCESS

Science.gov (United States)

2012-10-12

structure on the evolving storm behaviour. 13 7. Large scale influences on Rapid Intensification and Extratropical Transition: RI and ET...assimilation techniques to better initialize and validate TC structures (including the intense inner core and storm asymmetries) consistent with the large...Without vortex specification, initial conditions usually contain a weak and misplaced circulation. Based on estimates of central pressure and storm size

Predicting 30-day Hospital Readmission with Publicly Available Administrative Database. A Conditional Logistic Regression Modeling Approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhu, K; Lou, Z; Zhou, J; Ballester, N; Kong, N; Parikh, P

2015-01-01

This article is part of the Focus Theme of Methods of Information in Medicine on "Big Data and Analytics in Healthcare". Hospital readmissions raise healthcare costs and cause significant distress to providers and patients. It is, therefore, of great interest to healthcare organizations to predict what patients are at risk to be readmitted to their hospitals. However, current logistic regression based risk prediction models have limited prediction power when applied to hospital administrative data. Meanwhile, although decision trees and random forests have been applied, they tend to be too complex to understand among the hospital practitioners. Explore the use of conditional logistic regression to increase the prediction accuracy. We analyzed an HCUP statewide inpatient discharge record dataset, which includes patient demographics, clinical and care utilization data from California. We extracted records of heart failure Medicare beneficiaries who had inpatient experience during an 11-month period. We corrected the data imbalance issue with under-sampling. In our study, we first applied standard logistic regression and decision tree to obtain influential variables and derive practically meaning decision rules. We then stratified the original data set accordingly and applied logistic regression on each data stratum. We further explored the effect of interacting variables in the logistic regression modeling. We conducted cross validation to assess the overall prediction performance of conditional logistic regression (CLR) and compared it with standard classification models. The developed CLR models outperformed several standard classification models (e.g., straightforward logistic regression, stepwise logistic regression, random forest, support vector machine). For example, the best CLR model improved the classification accuracy by nearly 20% over the straightforward logistic regression model. Furthermore, the developed CLR models tend to achieve better sensitivity of

Artificial boundary conditions for certain evolution PDEs with cubic nonlinearity for non-compactly supported initial data

Science.gov (United States)

Vaibhav, V.

2011-04-01

The paper addresses the problem of constructing non-reflecting boundary conditions for two types of one dimensional evolution equations, namely, the cubic nonlinear Schrödinger (NLS) equation, ∂tu+Lu-iχ|u|2u=0 with L≡-i∂x2, and the equation obtained by letting L≡∂x3. The usual restriction of compact support of the initial data is relaxed by allowing it to have a constant amplitude along with a linear phase variation outside a compact domain. We adapt the pseudo-differential approach developed by Antoine et al. (2006) [5] for the NLS equation to the second type of evolution equation, and further, extend the scheme to the aforementioned class of initial data for both of the equations. In addition, we discuss efficient numerical implementation of our scheme and produce the results of several numerical experiments demonstrating its effectiveness.

Predicting long-term risk for relationship dissolution using nonparametric conditional survival trees.