WorldWideScience

Sample records for initial conditions predictions

  1. Mixing-model Sensitivity to Initial Conditions in Hydrodynamic Predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bigelow, Josiah; Silva, Humberto; Truman, C. Randall; Vorobieff, Peter

    2017-11-01

    Amagat and Dalton mixing-models were studied to compare their thermodynamic prediction of shock states. Numerical simulations with the Sandia National Laboratories shock hydrodynamic code CTH modeled University of New Mexico (UNM) shock tube laboratory experiments shocking a 1:1 molar mixture of helium (He) and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) . Five input parameters were varied for sensitivity analysis: driver section pressure, driver section density, test section pressure, test section density, and mixture ratio (mole fraction). We show via incremental Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) analysis that significant differences exist between Amagat and Dalton mixing-model predictions. The differences observed in predicted shock speeds, temperatures, and pressures grow more pronounced with higher shock speeds. Supported by NNSA Grant DE-0002913.

  2. Predictability of Japan/East Sea (JES) System to Uncertain Initial/Lateral Boundary Conditions and Surface Winds

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Fang, Chin-Lung

    2003-01-01

    .... Change in either initial or boundary condition leads to a variety of model solutions. It is necessary to specify realistic initial and boundary conditions to achieve better understanding and prediction of the ocean behavior...

  3. Initial conditions and ENSO prediction using a coupled ocean-atmosphere model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larow, T. E.; Krishnamurti, T. N.

    1998-01-01

    A coupled ocean-atmosphere initialization scheme using Newtonian relaxation has been developed for the Florida State University coupled ocean-atmosphere global general circulation model. The initialization scheme is used to initialize the coupled model for seasonal forecasting the boreal summers of 1987 and 1988. The atmosphere model is a modified version of the Florida State University global spectral model, resolution T-42. The ocean general circulation model consists of a slightly modified version of the Hamburg's climate group model described in Latif (1987) and Latif et al. (1993). The coupling is synchronous with information exchanged every two model hours. Using ECMWF atmospheric daily analysis and observed monthly mean SSTs, two, 1-year, time-dependent, Newtonian relaxation were performed using the coupled model prior to conducting the seasonal forecasts. The coupled initializations were conducted from 1 June 1986 to 1 June 1987 and from 1 June 1987 to 1 June 1988. Newtonian relaxation was applied to the prognostic atmospheric vorticity, divergence, temperature and dew point depression equations. In the ocean model the relaxation was applied to the surface temperature. Two, 10-member ensemble integrations were conducted to examine the impact of the coupled initialization on the seasonal forecasts. The initial conditions used for the ensembles are the ocean's final state after the initialization and the atmospheric initial conditions are ECMWF analysis. Examination of the SST root mean square error and anomaly correlations between observed and forecasted SSTs in the Niño-3 and Niño-4 regions for the 2 seasonal forecasts, show closer agreement between the initialized forecast than two, 10-member non-initialized ensemble forecasts. The main conclusion here is that a single forecast with the coupled initialization outperforms, in SST anomaly prediction, against each of the control forecasts (members of the ensemble) which do not include such an initialization

  4. Predicting a contact's sensitivity to initial conditions using metrics of frictional coupling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Flicek, Robert C.; Hills, David A.; Brake, Matthew Robert W.

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents a method for predicting how sensitive a frictional contact’s steady-state behavior is to its initial conditions. Previous research has proven that if a contact is uncoupled, i.e. if slip displacements do not influence the contact pressure distribution, then its steady-state response is independent of initial conditions, but if the contact is coupled, the steady-state response depends on initial conditions. In this paper, two metrics for quantifying coupling in discrete frictional systems are examined. These metrics suggest that coupling is dominated by material dissimilarity due to Dundurs’ composite material parameter β when β ≥ 0.2, but geometric mismatch becomes the dominant source of coupling for smaller values of β. Based on a large set of numerical simulations with different contact geometries, material combinations, and friction coefficients, a contact’s sensitivity to initial conditions is found to be correlated with the product of the coupling metric and the friction coefficient. For cyclic shear loading, this correlation is maintained for simulations with different contact geometries, material combinations, and friction coefficients. Furthermore, for cyclic bulk loading, the correlation is only maintained when the contact edge angle is held constant.

  5. Initial Cladding Condition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Siegmann, E.

    2000-01-01

    The purpose of this analysis is to describe the condition of commercial Zircaloy clad fuel as it is received at the Yucca Mountain Project (YMP) site. Most commercial nuclear fuel is encased in Zircaloy cladding. This analysis is developed to describe cladding degradation from the expected failure modes. This includes reactor operation impacts including incipient failures, potential degradation after reactor operation during spent fuel storage in pool and dry storage and impacts due to transportation. Degradation modes include cladding creep, and delayed hydride cracking during dry storage and transportation. Mechanical stresses from fuel handling and transportation vibrations are also included. This Analysis and Model Report (AMR) does not address any potential damage to assemblies that might occur at the YMP surface facilities. Ranges and uncertainties have been defined. This analysis will be the initial boundary condition for the analysis of cladding degradation inside the repository. In accordance with AP-2.13Q, ''Technical Product Development Planning'', a work plan (CRWMS M andO 2000c) was developed, issued, and utilized in the preparation of this document. There are constraints, caveats and limitations to this analysis. This cladding degradation analysis is based on commercial Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) fuel with Zircaloy cladding but is applicable to Boiling Water Reactor (BWR) fuel. Reactor operating experience for both PWRs and BWRs is used to establish fuel reliability from reactor operation. It is limited to fuel exposed to normal operation and anticipated operational occurrences (i.e. events which are anticipated to occur within a reactor lifetime), and not to fuel that has been exposed to severe accidents. Fuel burnup projections have been limited to the current commercial reactor licensing environment with restrictions on fuel enrichment, oxide coating thickness and rod plenum pressures. The information provided in this analysis will be used in

  6. Initial conditions for chaotic inflation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brandenberger, R.; Kung, J.; Feldman, H.

    1991-01-01

    In contrast to many other inflationary Universe models, chaotic inflation does not depend on fine tuning initial conditions. Within the context of linear perturbation theory, it is shown that chaotic inflation is stable towards both metric and matter perturbations. Neglecting gravitational perturbations, it is shown that chaotic inflation is an attractor in initial condition space. (orig.)

  7. Inflation with generalized initial conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Albrecht, A.; Brandenberger, R.; Matzner, R.

    1987-01-01

    In many current models of the early Universe a scalar field phi which is only very weakly coupled to other quantum fields is used to generate inflation. In such models there are no forces which could thermalize the scalar field, and previous assumptions about its preinflation ''initial'' conditions must be abandoned. In this paper the onset of inflation is studied classically for more general initial conditions of the scalar field configuration. In particular, initial conditions with a nonvanishing spatial average of phi, with phi chosen at random in each initial horizon volume, and with random initial momenta are considered. We identify and discuss several mechanisms that can drive these more general initial conditions toward an inflationary state. The analysis is done in one spatial dimension

  8. Initial conditions for cosmological perturbations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ashtekar, Abhay; Gupt, Brajesh

    2017-02-01

    Penrose proposed that the big bang singularity should be constrained by requiring that the Weyl curvature vanishes there. The idea behind this past hypothesis is attractive because it constrains the initial conditions for the universe in geometric terms and is not confined to a specific early universe paradigm. However, the precise statement of Penrose’s hypothesis is tied to classical space-times and furthermore restricts only the gravitational degrees of freedom. These are encapsulated only in the tensor modes of the commonly used cosmological perturbation theory. Drawing inspiration from the underlying idea, we propose a quantum generalization of Penrose’s hypothesis using the Planck regime in place of the big bang, and simultaneously incorporating tensor as well as scalar modes. Initial conditions selected by this generalization constrain the universe to be as homogeneous and isotropic in the Planck regime as permitted by the Heisenberg uncertainty relations.

  9. Initial conditions for cosmological perturbations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ashtekar, Abhay; Gupt, Brajesh

    2017-01-01

    Penrose proposed that the big bang singularity should be constrained by requiring that the Weyl curvature vanishes there. The idea behind this past hypothesis is attractive because it constrains the initial conditions for the universe in geometric terms and is not confined to a specific early universe paradigm. However, the precise statement of Penrose’s hypothesis is tied to classical space-times and furthermore restricts only the gravitational degrees of freedom. These are encapsulated only in the tensor modes of the commonly used cosmological perturbation theory. Drawing inspiration from the underlying idea, we propose a quantum generalization of Penrose’s hypothesis using the Planck regime in place of the big bang, and simultaneously incorporating tensor as well as scalar modes. Initial conditions selected by this generalization constrain the universe to be as homogeneous and isotropic in the Planck regime as permitted by the Heisenberg uncertainty relations . (paper)

  10. Improvement of a mesoscale atmospheric dynamic model PHYSIC. Utilization of output from synoptic numerical prediction model for initial and boundary condition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nagai, Haruyasu; Yamazawa, Hiromi

    1995-03-01

    This report describes the improvement of the mesoscale atmospheric dynamic model which is a part of the atmospheric dispersion calculation model PHYSIC. To introduce large-scale meteorological changes into the mesoscale atmospheric dynamic model, it is necessary to make the initial and boundary conditions of the model by using GPV (Grid Point Value) which is the output of the numerical weather prediction model of JMA (Japan Meteorological Agency). Therefore, the program which preprocesses the GPV data to make a input file to PHYSIC was developed and the input process and the methods of spatial and temporal interpolation were improved to correspond to the file. Moreover, the methods of calculating the cloud amount and ground surface moisture from GPV data were developed and added to the model code. As the example of calculation by the improved model, the wind field simulations of a north-west monsoon in winter and a sea breeze in summer in the Tokai area were also presented. (author)

  11. Initial conditions for critical Higgs inflation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salvio, Alberto

    2018-05-01

    It has been pointed out that a large non-minimal coupling ξ between the Higgs and the Ricci scalar can source higher derivative operators, which may change the predictions of Higgs inflation. A variant, called critical Higgs inflation, employs the near-criticality of the top mass to introduce an inflection point in the potential and lower drastically the value of ξ. We here study whether critical Higgs inflation can occur even if the pre-inflationary initial conditions do not satisfy the slow-roll behavior (retaining translation and rotation symmetries). A positive answer is found: inflation turns out to be an attractor and therefore no fine-tuning of the initial conditions is necessary. A very large initial Higgs time-derivative (as compared to the potential energy density) is compensated by a moderate increase in the initial field value. These conclusions are reached by solving the exact Higgs equation without using the slow-roll approximation. This also allows us to consistently treat the inflection point, where the standard slow-roll approximation breaks down. Here we make use of an approach that is independent of the UV completion of gravity, by taking initial conditions that always involve sub-planckian energies.

  12. Role of Ocean Initial Conditions to Diminish Dry Bias in the Seasonal Prediction of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall: A Case Study Using Climate Forecast System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koul, Vimal; Parekh, Anant; Srinivas, G.; Kakatkar, Rashmi; Chowdary, Jasti S.; Gnanaseelan, C.

    2018-03-01

    Coupled models tend to underestimate Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall over most of the Indian subcontinent. Present study demonstrates that a part of dry bias is arising from the discrepancies in Oceanic Initial Conditions (OICs). Two hindcast experiments are carried out using Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) for summer monsoons of 2012-2014 in which two different OICs are utilized. With respect to first experiment (CTRL), second experiment (AcSAL) differs by two aspects: usage of high-resolution atmospheric forcing and assimilation of only ARGO observed temperature and salinity profiles for OICs. Assessment of OICs indicates that the quality of OICs is enhanced due to assimilation of actual salinity profiles. Analysis reveals that AcSAL experiment showed 10% reduction in the dry bias over the Indian land region during the ISM compared to CTRL. This improvement is consistently apparent in each month and is highest for June. The better representation of upper ocean thermal structure of tropical oceans at initial stage supports realistic upper ocean stability and mixing. Which in fact reduced the dominant cold bias over the ocean, feedback to air-sea interactions and land sea thermal contrast resulting better representation of monsoon circulation and moisture transport. This reduced bias of tropospheric moisture and temperature over the Indian land mass and also produced better tropospheric temperature gradient over land as well as ocean. These feedback processes reduced the dry bias in the ISM rainfall. Study concludes that initializing the coupled models with realistic OICs can reduce the underestimation of ISM rainfall prediction.

  13. Cosmological constant and general isocurvature initial conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trotta, R.; Riazuelo, A.; Durrer, R.

    2003-01-01

    We investigate in detail the question of whether a nonvanishing cosmological constant is required by the present-day cosmic microwave background and large scale structure data when general isocurvature initial conditions are taken into account. We also discuss the differences between the usual Bayesian and the frequentist approaches in data analysis. We show that the Cosmic Background Explorer (COBE)-normalized matter power spectrum is dominated by the adiabatic mode and therefore breaks the degeneracy between initial conditions which is present in the cosmic microwave background anisotropies. We find that in a flat universe the Bayesian analysis requires Ω Λ =e0 to more than 3σ, while in the frequentist approach Ω Λ =0 is still within 3σ for a value of h≤0.48. Both conclusions hold regardless of the initial conditions

  14. Initial conditions for turbulent mixing simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Kaman

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available In the context of the classical Rayleigh-Taylor hydrodynamical instability, we examine the much debated question of models for initial conditions and the possible influence of unrecorded long wave length contributions to the instability growth rate α.

  15. Initial conditioning of the TFTR vacuum vessel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dylla, H.F.; Blanchard, W.R.; Krawchuk, R.B.; Hawryluk, R.J.; Owens, D.K.

    1984-01-01

    We report on the initial conditioning of the Tokamak Fusion Test Reactor (TFTR) vacuum vessel prior to the initiation of first plasma discharges, and during subsequent operation with high power ohmically-heated plasmas. Following evacuation of the 86 m 3 vessel with the 10 4 1/s high vacuum pumping system, the vessel was conditioned by a 15 A dc glow discharge in H 2 at a pressure of 5 mTorr. Rapid-pulse discharge cleaning was used subsequently to preferentially condition the graphite plasma limiters. The effectiveness of the discharge cleaning was monitored by measuring the exhaust rates of the primary discharge products (CO/C 2 H 4 , CH 4 , and H 2 O). After 175 hours of glow discharge treatment, the equivalent of 50 monolayers of C and O was removed from the vessel, and the partial pressures of impurity gases were reduced to the range of 10 -9 -10 -10 Torr

  16. Initial conditions and entanglement sudden death

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Qian, Xiao-Feng; Eberly, J.H.

    2012-01-01

    We report results bearing on the behavior of non-local decoherence and its potential for being managed or even controlled. The decoherence process known as entanglement sudden death (ESD) can drive prepared entanglement to zero at the same time that local coherences and fidelity remain non-zero. For a generic ESD-susceptible Bell superposition state, we provide rules restricting the occurrence and timing of ESD, amounting to management tools over a continuous variation of initial conditions. These depend on only three parameters: initial purity, entanglement and excitation. Knowledge or control of initial phases is not needed. -- Highlights: ► We study the possibility of managing disentanglement through initial conditions. ► The initial parameters are the amount of entanglement, excitation, and purity. ► Entanglement sudden death (ESD) free and ESD susceptible phases are identified. ► ESD onset time is also presented in the ESD susceptible phase. ► Our results may guide experiments to prepare ESD free or delayed ESD states.

  17. Crack initiation under generalized plane strain conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shum, D.K.M.; Merkle, J.G.

    1991-01-01

    A method for estimating the decrease in crack-initiation toughness, from a reference plane strain value, due to positive straining along the crack front of a circumferential flaw in a reactor pressure vessel is presented in this study. This method relates crack initiation under generalized plane strain conditions with material failure at points within a distance of a few crack-tip-opening displacements ahead of a crack front, and involves the formulation of a micromechanical crack-initiation model. While this study is intended to address concerns regarding the effects of positive out-of- plane straining on ductile crack initiation, the approach adopted in this work can be extended in a straightforward fashion to examine conditions of macroscopic cleavage crack initiation. Provided single- parameter dominance of near-tip fields exists in the flawed structure, results from this study could be used to examine the appropriateness of applying plane strain fracture toughness to the evaluation of circumferential flaws, in particular to those in ring-forged vessels which have no longitudinal welds. In addition, results from this study could also be applied toward the analysis of the effects of thermal streaming on the fracture resistance of circumferentially oriented flaws in a pressure vessel. 37 refs., 8 figs., 1 tab

  18. On the initial condition of inflationary fluctuations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jiang, Hongliang; Wang, Yi; Zhou, Siyi

    2016-01-01

    It is usually assumed that the inflationary fluctuations start from the Bunch-Davies (BD) vacuum and the iε prescription is used when interactions are calculated. We show that those assumptions can be verified explicitly by calculating the loop corrections to the inflationary two-point and three-point correlation functions. Those loop corrections can be resummed to exponential factors, which suppress non-BD coefficients and behave as the iε factor for the case of the BD initial condition. A new technique of loop chain diagram resummation is developed for this purpose. For the non-BD initial conditions which is setup at finite time and has not fully decayed, explicit correction to the two-point and three-point correlation functions are calculated. Especially, non-Gaussianity in the folded limit is regularized due to the interactions.

  19. Initial phase wall conditioning in KSTAR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hong, Suk-Ho; Kim, Kwang-Pyo; Kim, Sungwoo; Lee, Dong-Su; Kim, Kyung-Min; Lee, Kun-Su; Kim, Jong-Su; Park, Jae-Min; Kim, Woong-Chae; Kim, Hak-Kun; Park, Kap-Rai; Yang, Hyung-Lyeol; Sun, Jong-Ho; Woo, Hyun-Jong; Lee, Sang-Yong; Lee, Sang-Hwa; Park, Eun-Kyung; Park, Sang-Joon; Kim, Sun-Ho; Wang, Sun-Jung

    2011-01-01

    The initial phase wall conditioning in KSTAR is depicted. The KSTAR wall conditioning procedure consists of vessel baking, glow discharge cleaning (GDC), ICRH wall conditioning (ICWC) and boronization (Bz). Vessel baking is performed for the initial vacuum conditioning in order to remove various kinds of impurities including H 2 O, carbon and oxygen and for the plasma operation. The total outgassing rates after vessel baking in three successive KSTAR campaigns are compared. GDC is regularly performed as a standard wall cleaning procedure. Another cleaning technique is ICWC, which is useful for inter-shot wall conditioning under a strong magnetic field. In order to optimize the operation time and removal efficiency of ICWC, a parameter scan is performed. Bz is a standard technique to remove oxygen impurity from a vacuum vessel. KSTAR has used carborane powder which is a non-toxic boron-containing material. The KSTAR Bz has been successfully performed through two campaigns: water and oxygen levels in the vacuum vessel are reduced significantly. As a result, KSTAR has achieved its first L-H mode transition, although the input power was marginal for the L-H transition threshold. The characteristics of boron-containing thin films deposited for boronization are investigated.

  20. Tubular Initial Conditions and Ridge Formation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. S. Borysova

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The 2D azimuth and rapidity structure of the two-particle correlations in relativistic A+A collisions is altered significantly by the presence of sharp inhomogeneities in superdense matter formed in such processes. The causality constraints enforce one to associate the long-range longitudinal correlations observed in a narrow angular interval, the so-called (soft ridge, with peculiarities of the initial conditions of collision process. This study's objective is to analyze whether multiform initial tubular structures, undergoing the subsequent hydrodynamic evolution and gradual decoupling, can form the soft ridges. Motivated by the flux-tube scenarios, the initial energy density distribution contains the different numbers of high density tube-like boost-invariant inclusions that form a bumpy structure in the transverse plane. The influence of various structures of such initial conditions in the most central A+A events on the collective evolution of matter, resulting spectra, angular particle correlations and vn-coefficients is studied in the framework of the hydrokinetic model (HKM.

  1. The Initial Conditions of Fractional Calculus

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trigeassou, J. C.; Maamri, N.

    2011-01-01

    During the past fifty years , Fractional Calculus has become an original and renowned mathematical tool for the modelling of diffusion Partial Differential Equations and the design of robust control algorithms. However, in spite of these celebrated results, some theoretical problems have not yet received a satisfying solution. The mastery of initial conditions, either for Fractional Differential Equations (FDEs) or for the Caputo and Riemann-Liouville fractional derivatives, remains an open research domain. The solution of this fundamental problem, also related to the long range memory property, is certainly the necessary prerequisite for a satisfying approach to modelling and control applications. The fractional integrator and its continuously frequency distributed differential model is a valuable tool for the simulation of fractional systems and the solution of initial condition problems. Indeed, the infinite dimensional state vector of fractional integrators allows the direct generalization to fractional calculus of the theoretical results of integer order systems. After a reminder of definitions and properties related to fractional derivatives and systems, this presentation is intended to show, based on the results of two recent publications [1,2], how the fractional integrator provides the solution of the initial condition problem of FDEs and of Caputo and Riemann-Liouville fractional derivatives. Numerical simulation examples illustrate and validate these new theoretical concepts.

  2. Robustness of inflation to inhomogeneous initial conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Clough, Katy; Lim, Eugene A. [Theoretical Particle Physics and Cosmology Group, Physics Department, Kings College London, Strand, London WC2R 2LS (United Kingdom); DiNunno, Brandon S.; Fischler, Willy; Flauger, Raphael; Paban, Sonia, E-mail: katy.clough@kcl.ac.uk, E-mail: eugene.a.lim@gmail.com, E-mail: bsd86@physics.utexas.edu, E-mail: fischler@physics.utexas.edu, E-mail: flauger@physics.utexas.edu, E-mail: paban@physics.utexas.edu [Department of Physics, The University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX, 78712 (United States)

    2017-09-01

    We consider the effects of inhomogeneous initial conditions in both the scalar field profile and the extrinsic curvature on different inflationary models. In particular, we compare the robustness of small field inflation to that of large field inflation, using numerical simulations with Einstein gravity in 3+1 dimensions. We find that small field inflation can fail in the presence of subdominant gradient energies, suggesting that it is much less robust to inhomogeneities than large field inflation, which withstands dominant gradient energies. However, we also show that small field inflation can be successful even if some regions of spacetime start out in the region of the potential that does not support inflation. In the large field case, we confirm previous results that inflation is robust if the inflaton occupies the inflationary part of the potential. Furthermore, we show that increasing initial scalar gradients will not form sufficiently massive inflation-ending black holes if the initial hypersurface is approximately flat. Finally, we consider the large field case with a varying extrinsic curvature K , such that some regions are initially collapsing. We find that this may again lead to local black holes, but overall the spacetime remains inflationary if the spacetime is open, which confirms previous theoretical studies.

  3. Initial conditions of radiative shock experiments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kuranz, C. C.; Drake, R. P.; Krauland, C. M.; Marion, D. C.; Grosskopf, M. J.; Rutter, E.; Torralva, B.; Holloway, J. P.; Bingham, D.; Goh, J.; Boehly, T. R.; Sorce, A. T.

    2013-01-01

    We performed experiments at the Omega Laser Facility to characterize the initial, laser-driven state of a radiative shock experiment. These experiments aimed to measure the shock breakout time from a thin, laser-irradiated Be disk. The data are then used to inform a range of valid model parameters, such as electron flux limiter and polytropic γ, used when simulating radiative shock experiments using radiation hydrodynamics codes. The characterization experiment and the radiative shock experiment use a laser irradiance of ∼7 × 10 14 W cm −2 to launch a shock in the Be disk. A velocity interferometer and a streaked optical pyrometer were used to infer the amount of time for the shock to move through the Be disk. The experimental results were compared with simulation results from the Hyades code, which can be used to model the initial conditions of a radiative shock system using the CRASH code

  4. Initialization and Predictability of a Coupled ENSO Forecast Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Dake; Zebiak, Stephen E.; Cane, Mark A.; Busalacchi, Antonio J.

    1997-01-01

    The skill of a coupled ocean-atmosphere model in predicting ENSO has recently been improved using a new initialization procedure in which initial conditions are obtained from the coupled model, nudged toward observations of wind stress. The previous procedure involved direct insertion of wind stress observations, ignoring model feedback from ocean to atmosphere. The success of the new scheme is attributed to its explicit consideration of ocean-atmosphere coupling and the associated reduction of "initialization shock" and random noise. The so-called spring predictability barrier is eliminated, suggesting that such a barrier is not intrinsic to the real climate system. Initial attempts to generalize the nudging procedure to include SST were not successful; possible explanations are offered. In all experiments forecast skill is found to be much higher for the 1980s than for the 1970s and 1990s, suggesting decadal variations in predictability.

  5. On specification of initial conditions in turbulence models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rollin, Bertrand [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Andrews, Malcolm J [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2010-12-01

    Recent research has shown that initial conditions have a significant influence on the evolution of a flow towards turbulence. This important finding offers a unique opportunity for turbulence control, but also raises the question of how to properly specify initial conditions in turbulence models. We study this problem in the context of the Rayleigh-Taylor instability. The Rayleigh-Taylor instability is an interfacial fluid instability that leads to turbulence and turbulent mixing. It occurs when a light fluid is accelerated in to a heavy fluid because of misalignment between density and pressure gradients. The Rayleigh-Taylor instability plays a key role in a wide variety of natural and man-made flows ranging from supernovae to the implosion phase of Inertial Confinement Fusion (ICF). Our approach consists of providing the turbulence models with a predicted profile of its key variables at the appropriate time in accordance to the initial conditions of the problem.

  6. MUSIC: MUlti-Scale Initial Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hahn, Oliver; Abel, Tom

    2013-11-01

    MUSIC generates multi-scale initial conditions with multiple levels of refinements for cosmological ‘zoom-in’ simulations. The code uses an adaptive convolution of Gaussian white noise with a real-space transfer function kernel together with an adaptive multi-grid Poisson solver to generate displacements and velocities following first- (1LPT) or second-order Lagrangian perturbation theory (2LPT). MUSIC achieves rms relative errors of the order of 10-4 for displacements and velocities in the refinement region and thus improves in terms of errors by about two orders of magnitude over previous approaches. In addition, errors are localized at coarse-fine boundaries and do not suffer from Fourier space-induced interference ringing.

  7. Classical and quantum initial conditions for Higgs inflation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alberto Salvio

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available We investigate whether Higgs inflation can occur in the Standard Model starting from natural initial conditions or not. The Higgs has a non-minimal coupling to the Ricci scalar. We confine our attention to the regime where quantum Einstein gravity effects are small in order to have results that are independent of the ultraviolet completion of gravity. At the classical level we find no tuning is required to have successful Higgs inflation, provided the initial homogeneity condition is satisfied. On the other hand, at the quantum level we obtain that the renormalization for large non-minimal coupling requires an additional degree of freedom, unless a tuning of the initial values of the running parameters is made. In order to see that this effect may change the predictions we finally include such degree of freedom in the field content and show that Starobinsky's R2 inflation dominates over Higgs inflation.

  8. Effect of Initial Conditions on Reproducibility of Scientific Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Djulbegovic, Benjamin; Hozo, Iztok

    2014-01-01

    Background: It is estimated that about half of currently published research cannot be reproduced. Many reasons have been offered as explanations for failure to reproduce scientific research findings- from fraud to the issues related to design, conduct, analysis, or publishing scientific research. We also postulate a sensitive dependency on initial conditions by which small changes can result in the large differences in the research findings when attempted to be reproduced at later times. Methods: We employed a simple logistic regression equation to model the effect of covariates on the initial study findings. We then fed the input from the logistic equation into a logistic map function to model stability of the results in repeated experiments over time. We illustrate the approach by modeling effects of different factors on the choice of correct treatment. Results: We found that reproducibility of the study findings depended both on the initial values of all independent variables and the rate of change in the baseline conditions, the latter being more important. When the changes in the baseline conditions vary by about 3.5 to about 4 in between experiments, no research findings could be reproduced. However, when the rate of change between the experiments is ≤2.5 the results become highly predictable between the experiments. Conclusions: Many results cannot be reproduced because of the changes in the initial conditions between the experiments. Better control of the baseline conditions in-between the experiments may help improve reproducibility of scientific findings. PMID:25132705

  9. Initializing decadal climate predictions over the North Atlantic region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matei, Daniela Mihaela; Pohlmann, Holger; Jungclaus, Johann; Müller, Wolfgang; Haak, Helmuth; Marotzke, Jochem

    2010-05-01

    Decadal climate prediction aims to predict the internally-generated decadal climate variability in addition to externally-forced climate change signal. In order to achieve this it is necessary to start the predictions from the current climate state. In this study we investigate the forecast skill of the North Atlantic decadal climate predictions using two different ocean initialization strategies. First we apply an assimilation of ocean synthesis data provided by the GECCO project (Köhl and Stammer, 2008) as initial conditions for the coupled model ECHAM5/MPI-OM. Hindcast experiments are then performed over the period 1952-2001. An alternative approach is one in which the subsurface ocean temperature and salinity are diagnosed from an ensemble of ocean model runs forced by the NCEP-NCAR atmospheric reanalyzes for the period 1948-2007, then nudge into the coupled model to produce initial conditions for the hindcast experiments. An anomaly coupling scheme is used in both approaches to avoid the hindcast drift and the associated initial shock. Differences between the two assimilation approaches are discussed by comparing them with the observational data in key regions and processes. We asses the skill of the initialized decadal hindcast experiments against the prediction skill of the non-initialized hindcasts simulation. We obtain an overview of the regions with the highest predictability from the regional distribution of the anomaly correlation coefficients and RMSE for the SAT. For the first year the hindcast skill is increased over almost all ocean regions in the NCEP-forced approach. This increase in the hindcast skill for the 1 year lead time is somewhat reduced in the GECCO approach. At lead time 5yr and 10yr, the skill enhancement is still found over the North Atlantic and North Pacific regions. We also consider the potential predictability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and Nordic Seas Overflow by comparing the predicted values to

  10. Reduction of initial shock in decadal predictions using a new initialization strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Yujun; Wang, Bin; Liu, Mimi; Liu, Li; Yu, Yongqiang; Liu, Juanjuan; Li, Ruizhe; Zhang, Cheng; Xu, Shiming; Huang, Wenyu; Liu, Qun; Wang, Yong; Li, Feifei

    2017-08-01

    A novel full-field initialization strategy based on the dimension-reduced projection four-dimensional variational data assimilation (DRP-4DVar) is proposed to alleviate the well-known initial shock occurring in the early years of decadal predictions. It generates consistent initial conditions, which best fit the monthly mean oceanic analysis data along the coupled model trajectory in 1 month windows. Three indices to measure the initial shock intensity are also proposed. Results indicate that this method does reduce the initial shock in decadal predictions by Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model, Grid-point version 2 (FGOALS-g2) compared with the three-dimensional variational data assimilation-based nudging full-field initialization for the same model and is comparable to or even better than the different initialization strategies for other fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models. Better hindcasts of global mean surface air temperature anomalies can be obtained than in other FGOALS-g2 experiments. Due to the good model response to external forcing and the reduction of initial shock, higher decadal prediction skill is achieved than in other CMIP5 models.

  11. Impact of Soil Moisture Initialization on Seasonal Weather Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koster, Randal D.; Suarez, Max J.; Houser, Paul (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    The potential role of soil moisture initialization in seasonal forecasting is illustrated through ensembles of simulations with the NASA Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP) model. For each boreal summer during 1997-2001, we generated two 16-member ensembles of 3-month simulations. The first, "AMIP-style" ensemble establishes the degree to which a perfect prediction of SSTs would contribute to the seasonal prediction of precipitation and temperature over continents. The second ensemble is identical to the first, except that the land surface is also initialized with "realistic" soil moisture contents through the continuous prior application (within GCM simulations leading up to the start of the forecast period) of a daily observational precipitation data set and the associated avoidance of model drift through the scaling of all surface prognostic variables. A comparison of the two ensembles shows that soil moisture initialization has a statistically significant impact on summertime precipitation and temperature over only a handful of continental regions. These regions agree, to first order, with regions that satisfy three conditions: (1) a tendency toward large initial soil moisture anomalies, (2) a strong sensitivity of evaporation to soil moisture, and (3) a strong sensitivity of precipitation to evaporation. The degree to which the initialization improves forecasts relative to observations is mixed, reflecting a critical need for the continued development of model parameterizations and data analysis strategies.

  12. Nonparametric conditional predictive regions for time series

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Gooijer, J.G.; Zerom Godefay, D.

    2000-01-01

    Several nonparametric predictors based on the Nadaraya-Watson kernel regression estimator have been proposed in the literature. They include the conditional mean, the conditional median, and the conditional mode. In this paper, we consider three types of predictive regions for these predictors — the

  13. arXiv Initial Conditions for Critical Higgs Inflation

    CERN Document Server

    Salvio, Alberto

    2018-05-10

    It has been pointed out that a large non-minimal coupling ξ between the Higgs and the Ricci scalar can source higher derivative operators, which may change the predictions of Higgs inflation. A variant, called critical Higgs inflation, employs the near-criticality of the top mass to introduce an inflection point in the potential and lower drastically the value of ξ . We here study whether critical Higgs inflation can occur even if the pre-inflationary initial conditions do not satisfy the slow-roll behavior (retaining translation and rotation symmetries). A positive answer is found: inflation turns out to be an attractor and therefore no fine-tuning of the initial conditions is necessary. A very large initial Higgs time-derivative (as compared to the potential energy density) is compensated by a moderate increase in the initial field value. These conclusions are reached by solving the exact Higgs equation without using the slow-roll approximation. This also allows us to consistently treat the inflection poi...

  14. Predicting Reactive Transport Dynamics in Carbonates using Initial Pore Structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menke, H. P.; Nunes, J. P. P.; Blunt, M. J.

    2017-12-01

    Understanding rock-fluid interaction at the pore-scale is imperative for accurate predictive modelling of carbon storage permanence. However, coupled reactive transport models are computationally expensive, requiring either a sacrifice of resolution or high performance computing to solve relatively simple geometries. Many recent studies indicate that initial pore structure many be the dominant mechanism in determining the dissolution regime. Here we investigate how well the initial pore structure is predictive of distribution and amount of dissolution during reactive flow using particle tracking on the initial image. Two samples of carbonate rock with varying initial pore space heterogeneity were reacted with reservoir condition CO2-saturated brine and scanned dynamically during reactive flow at a 4-μm resolution between 4 and 40 times using 4D X-ray micro-tomography over the course of 1.5 hours using μ-CT. Flow was modelled on the initial binarized image using a Navier-Stokes solver. Particle tracking was then run on the velocity fields, the streamlines were traced, and the streamline density was calculated both on a voxel-by-voxel and a channel-by-channel basis. The density of streamlines was then compared to the amount of dissolution in subsequent time steps during reaction. It was found that for the flow and transport regimes studied, the streamline density distribution in the initial image accurately predicted the dominant pathways of dissolution and gave good indicators of the type of dissolution regime that would later develop. This work suggests that the eventual reaction-induced changes in pore structure are deterministic rather than stochastic and can be predicted with high resolution imaging of unreacted rock.

  15. Conditional prediction intervals of wind power generation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pinson, Pierre; Kariniotakis, Georges

    2010-01-01

    A generic method for the providing of prediction intervals of wind power generation is described. Prediction intervals complement the more common wind power point forecasts, by giving a range of potential outcomes for a given probability, their so-called nominal coverage rate. Ideally they inform...... on the characteristics of prediction errors for providing conditional interval forecasts. By simultaneously generating prediction intervals with various nominal coverage rates, one obtains full predictive distributions of wind generation. Adapted resampling is applied here to the case of an onshore Danish wind farm...... to the case of a large number of wind farms in Europe and Australia among others is finally discussed....

  16. Chaotic digital communication by encoding initial conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiaofeng, Gong; Xingang, Wang; Meng, Zhan; Lai, C H

    2004-06-01

    We investigate the possibility to improve the noise performance of a chaotic digital communication scheme by utilizing further dynamical information. We show that by encoding the initial information of the chaotic carrier according to the transmitting bits, extra redundance can be introduced into the segments of chaotic signals corresponding to the consecutive bits. Such redundant information can be exploited effectively at the receiver end to improve the noise performance of the system. Compared to other methods (e.g., differential chaos shift keying), straightforward application of the proposed modulation/demodulation scheme already provides significant performance gain in the low signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) region. Furthermore, maximum likelihood precleaning procedure based on the Viterbi algorithm can be applied before the demodulation step to overcome the performance degradation in the high SNR region. The study indicates that it is possible to improve the noise performance of the chaotic digital communication scheme if further dynamics information is added to the system. (c) 2004 American Institute of Physics

  17. The Dependence of Chimera States on Initial Conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Feng Yue-E; Li Hai-Hong

    2015-01-01

    A chimera state consisting of both coherent and incoherent groups is a fascinating spatial pattern in non-locally coupled identical oscillators. It is thought that random initial conditions hardly evolve to chimera states. In this work, we study the dependence of chimera states on initial conditions. We show that random initial conditions may lead to chimera states and the chance of realizing chimera states becomes increasing when the model parameters are moving away from the boundary of their stable regime. (paper)

  18. Selection of the initial conditions in the tunneling time definition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zajchenko, A.K.

    2004-01-01

    The necessity of changing of the initial conditions in the Olkhovsky - Recami definition of the tunneling time is justified. The new initial conditions are proposed which adequately taking into account the irreversibility of the wave packets spreading. The expression for the tunneling time with the new initial conditions is reduced to the form which is convenient for the performing and controlling the accuracy of calculations

  19. MetWAMer: eukaryotic translation initiation site prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brendel Volker

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Translation initiation site (TIS identification is an important aspect of the gene annotation process, requisite for the accurate delineation of protein sequences from transcript data. We have developed the MetWAMer package for TIS prediction in eukaryotic open reading frames of non-viral origin. MetWAMer can be used as a stand-alone, third-party tool for post-processing gene structure annotations generated by external computational programs and/or pipelines, or directly integrated into gene structure prediction software implementations. Results MetWAMer currently implements five distinct methods for TIS prediction, the most accurate of which is a routine that combines weighted, signal-based translation initiation site scores and the contrast in coding potential of sequences flanking TISs using a perceptron. Also, our program implements clustering capabilities through use of the k-medoids algorithm, thereby enabling cluster-specific TIS parameter utilization. In practice, our static weight array matrix-based indexing method for parameter set lookup can be used with good results in data sets exhibiting moderate levels of 5'-complete coverage. Conclusion We demonstrate that improvements in statistically-based models for TIS prediction can be achieved by taking the class of each potential start-methionine into account pending certain testing conditions, and that our perceptron-based model is suitable for the TIS identification task. MetWAMer represents a well-documented, extensible, and freely available software system that can be readily re-trained for differing target applications and/or extended with existing and novel TIS prediction methods, to support further research efforts in this area.

  20. Influence of changes in initial conditions for the simulation of dynamic systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kotyrba, Martin [Department of Informatics and Computers, University of Ostrava, 30 dubna 22, Ostrava (Czech Republic)

    2015-03-10

    Chaos theory is a field of study in mathematics, with applications in several disciplines including meteorology, sociology, physics, engineering, economics, biology, and philosophy. Chaos theory studies the behavior of dynamical systems that are highly sensitive to initial conditions—a paradigm popularly referred to as the butterfly effect. Small differences in initial conditions field widely diverging outcomes for such dynamical systems, rendering long-term prediction impossible in general. This happens even though these systems are deterministic, meaning that their future behavior is fully determined by their initial conditions, with no random elements involved. In this paperinfluence of changes in initial conditions will be presented for the simulation of Lorenz system.

  1. Tailoring discrete quantum walk dynamics via extended initial conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Valcarcel, German J de; Roldan, Eugenio [Departament d' Optica, Universitat de Valencia, Dr Moliner 50, 46100-Burjassot, Spain, EU (Spain); Romanelli, Alejandro, E-mail: german.valcarcel@uv.es, E-mail: eugenio.roldan@uv.es, E-mail: alejo@fing.edu.uy [Instituto de Fisica, Facultad de IngenierIa, Universidad de la Republica, CC 30, CP 11000, Montevideo (Uruguay)

    2010-12-15

    We study the evolution of initially extended distributions in the coined quantum walk (QW) on the line. By analysing the dispersion relation of the process, continuous wave equations are derived whose form depends on the initial distribution shape. In particular, for a class of initial conditions, the evolution is dictated by the Schroedinger equation of a free particle. As that equation also governs paraxial optical diffraction, all of the phenomenology of the latter can be implemented in the QW. This allows us, in particular, to devise an initially extended condition leading to a uniform probability distribution whose width increases linearly with time, with increasing homogeneity.

  2. Tailoring discrete quantum walk dynamics via extended initial conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Valcarcel, German J de; Roldan, Eugenio; Romanelli, Alejandro

    2010-01-01

    We study the evolution of initially extended distributions in the coined quantum walk (QW) on the line. By analysing the dispersion relation of the process, continuous wave equations are derived whose form depends on the initial distribution shape. In particular, for a class of initial conditions, the evolution is dictated by the Schroedinger equation of a free particle. As that equation also governs paraxial optical diffraction, all of the phenomenology of the latter can be implemented in the QW. This allows us, in particular, to devise an initially extended condition leading to a uniform probability distribution whose width increases linearly with time, with increasing homogeneity.

  3. ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION OF HOT JUPITERS: INSENSITIVITY TO INITIAL CONDITIONS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu Beibei; Showman, Adam P.

    2013-01-01

    The ongoing characterization of hot Jupiters has motivated a variety of circulation models of their atmospheres. Such models must be integrated starting from an assumed initial state, which is typically taken to be a wind-free, rest state. Here, we investigate the sensitivity of hot-Jupiter atmospheric circulation to initial conditions with shallow-water models and full three-dimensional models. Those models are initialized with zonal jets, and we explore a variety of different initial jet profiles. We demonstrate that, in both classes of models, the final, equilibrated state is independent of initial condition—as long as frictional drag near the bottom of the domain and/or interaction with a specified planetary interior are included so that the atmosphere can adjust angular momentum over time relative to the interior. When such mechanisms are included, otherwise identical models initialized with vastly different initial conditions all converge to the same statistical steady state. In some cases, the models exhibit modest time variability; this variability results in random fluctuations about the statistical steady state, but we emphasize that, even in these cases, the statistical steady state itself does not depend on initial conditions. Although the outcome of hot-Jupiter circulation models depend on details of the radiative forcing and frictional drag, aspects of which remain uncertain, we conclude that the specification of initial conditions is not a source of uncertainty, at least over the parameter range explored in most current models.

  4. Persistence of Initial Conditions in Continental Scale Air Quality Simulations

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — This dataset contains the data used in Figures 1 – 6 and Table 2 of the technical note "Persistence of Initial Conditions in Continental Scale Air Quality...

  5. Sensitivity of a Simulated Derecho Event to Model Initial Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Wei

    2014-05-01

    Since 2003, the MMM division at NCAR has been experimenting cloud-permitting scale weather forecasting using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Over the years, we've tested different model physics, and tried different initial and boundary conditions. Not surprisingly, we found that the model's forecasts are more sensitive to the initial conditions than model physics. In 2012 real-time experiment, WRF-DART (Data Assimilation Research Testbed) at 15 km was employed to produce initial conditions for twice-a-day forecast at 3 km. On June 29, this forecast system captured one of the most destructive derecho event on record. In this presentation, we will examine forecast sensitivity to different model initial conditions, and try to understand the important features that may contribute to the success of the forecast.

  6. Protostellar formation in rotating interstellar clouds. VI. Nonuniform initial conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boss, A.P.

    1987-01-01

    The collapse and fragmentation of rotating protostellar clouds is explored, starting from nonuniform density and nonuniform rotation initial conditions. Whether binary fragmentation occurs during the first dynamic collapse phase depends strongly on the initial density profile. Exponential clouds are only somewhat more resistant to fragmentation than uniform-density clouds, but power-law clouds do not undergo fragmentation for likely values of a relevant parameter. Because binary fragments start from profiles intermediate between uniform density and exponential clouds, minimum protostellar mass for population I stars should be increased to approximately 0.02 solar mass. The axisymmetric Terey et al. (1984) model should be stable with respect to nonaxisymmetric perturbations. Considering the observed binary frequency, collapse from power-law initial conditions appears to be less common than collapse from more uniform initial conditions. 34 references

  7. Predicting watershed acidification under alternate rainfall conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huntington, T.G.

    1996-01-01

    The effect of alternate rainfall scenarios on acidification of a forested watershed subjected to chronic acidic deposition was assessed using the model of acidification of groundwater in catchments (MAGIC). The model was calibrated at the Panola Mountain Research Watershed, near Atlanta, Georgia, USA using measured soil properties, wet and dry deposition, and modeled hydrologic routing. Model forecast simulations were evaluated to compare alternate temporal averaging of rainfall inputs and variations in rainfall amount and seasonal distribution. Soil water alkalinity was predicted to decrease to substantially lower concentrations under lower rainfall compared with current or higher rainfall conditions. Soil water alkalinity was also predicted to decrease to lower levels when the majority of rainfall occurred during the growing season compared with other rainfall distributions. Changes in rainfall distribution that result in decreases in net soil water flux will temporarily delay acidification. Ultimately, however, decreased soilwater flux will result in larger increases in soil-adsorbed sulfur and soil-water sulfate concentrations and decreases in alkalinity when compared to higher water flux conditions. Potential climate change resulting in significant changes in rainfall amounts, seasonal distributions of rainfall, or evapotranspiration will change net soil water flux and, consequently, will affect the dynamics of the acidification response to continued sulfate loading. 29 refs., 7 figs., 4 tabs

  8. Model Forecast Skill and Sensitivity to Initial Conditions in the Seasonal Sea Ice Outlook

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E.; Cullather, R. I.; Wang, W.; Zhang, J.; Bitz, C. M.

    2015-01-01

    We explore the skill of predictions of September Arctic sea ice extent from dynamical models participating in the Sea Ice Outlook (SIO). Forecasts submitted in August, at roughly 2 month lead times, are skillful. However, skill is lower in forecasts submitted to SIO, which began in 2008, than in hindcasts (retrospective forecasts) of the last few decades. The multimodel mean SIO predictions offer slightly higher skill than the single-model SIO predictions, but neither beats a damped persistence forecast at longer than 2 month lead times. The models are largely unsuccessful at predicting each other, indicating a large difference in model physics and/or initial conditions. Motivated by this, we perform an initial condition sensitivity experiment with four SIO models, applying a fixed -1 m perturbation to the initial sea ice thickness. The significant range of the response among the models suggests that different model physics make a significant contribution to forecast uncertainty.

  9. Chaotic inflation as an attractor in initial-condition space

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kung, J.H.; Brandenberger, R.H.

    1990-01-01

    We study the evolution of scalar field inhomogeneities in the preinflationary phase of an inflationary universe. We decompose the scalar field configuration in Fourier modes and consider initial conditions in which more than one mode is excited. We find that the long-wavelength modes are stable against perturbations due to short-wavelength excitations and that chaotic inflation results even if at the initial time the short waves contain most of the energy density

  10. Multipoint propagators for non-Gaussian initial conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernardeau, Francis; Sefusatti, Emiliano; Crocce, Martin

    2010-01-01

    We show here how renormalized perturbation theory calculations applied to the quasilinear growth of the large-scale structure can be carried on in presence of primordial non-Gaussian (PNG) initial conditions. It is explicitly demonstrated that the series reordering scheme proposed in Bernardeau, Crocce, and Scoccimarro [Phys. Rev. D 78, 103521 (2008)] is preserved for non-Gaussian initial conditions. This scheme applies to the power spectrum and higher-order spectra and is based on a reorganization of the contributing terms into the sum of products of multipoint propagators. In case of PNG, new contributing terms appear, the importance of which is discussed in the context of current PNG models. The properties of the building blocks of such resummation schemes, the multipoint propagators, are then investigated. It is first remarked that their expressions are left unchanged at one-loop order irrespective of statistical properties of the initial field. We furthermore show that the high-momentum limit of each of these propagators can be explicitly computed even for arbitrary initial conditions. They are found to be damped by an exponential cutoff whose expression is directly related to the moment generating function of the one-dimensional displacement field. This extends what had been established for multipoint propagators for Gaussian initial conditions. Numerical forms of the cutoff are shown for the so-called local model of PNG.

  11. A new equilibrium torus solution and GRMHD initial conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Penna, Robert F.; Kulkarni, Akshay; Narayan, Ramesh

    2013-11-01

    Context. General relativistic magnetohydrodynamic (GRMHD) simulations are providing influential models for black hole spin measurements, gamma ray bursts, and supermassive black hole feedback. Many of these simulations use the same initial condition: a rotating torus of fluid in hydrostatic equilibrium. A persistent concern is that simulation results sometimes depend on arbitrary features of the initial torus. For example, the Bernoulli parameter (which is related to outflows), appears to be controlled by the Bernoulli parameter of the initial torus. Aims: In this paper, we give a new equilibrium torus solution and describe two applications for the future. First, it can be used as a more physical initial condition for GRMHD simulations than earlier torus solutions. Second, it can be used in conjunction with earlier torus solutions to isolate the simulation results that depend on initial conditions. Methods: We assume axisymmetry, an ideal gas equation of state, constant entropy, and ignore self-gravity. We fix an angular momentum distribution and solve the relativistic Euler equations in the Kerr metric. Results: The Bernoulli parameter, rotation rate, and geometrical thickness of the torus can be adjusted independently. Our torus tends to be more bound and have a larger radial extent than earlier torus solutions. Conclusions: While this paper was in preparation, several GRMHD simulations appeared based on our equilibrium torus. We believe it will continue to provide a more realistic starting point for future simulations.

  12. Bayesian recovery of the initial condition for the heat equation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Knapik, B.T.; Vaart, van der A.W.; Zanten, van J.H.

    2011-01-01

    We study a Bayesian approach to recovering the initial condition for the heat equation from noisy observations of the solution at a later time. We consider a class of prior distributions indexed by a parameter quantifying "smoothness" and show that the corresponding posterior distributions contract

  13. Star formation in mergers with comologically motivated initial conditions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Karman, Wouter; Macciò, Andrea V.; Kannan, Rahul; Moster, Benjamin P.; Somerville, Rachel S.

    2015-01-01

    We use semi-analytic models and cosmological merger trees to provide the initial conditions for multimerger numerical hydrodynamic simulations, and exploit these simulations to explore the effect of galaxy interaction and merging on star formation (SF). We compute numerical realizations of 12 merger

  14. The Matter Bispectrum in N-body Simulations with non-Gaussian Initial Conditions

    OpenAIRE

    Sefusatti, Emiliano; Crocce, Martin; Desjacques, Vincent

    2010-01-01

    We present measurements of the dark matter bispectrum in N-body simulations with non-Gaussian initial conditions of the local kind for a large variety of triangular configurations and compare them with predictions from Eulerian perturbation theory up to one-loop corrections. We find that the effects of primordial non-Gaussianity at large scales, when compared to perturbation theory, are well described by the initial component of the matter bispectrum, linearly extrapolated at the redshift of ...

  15. Effect of initial conditions on combustion generated loads

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tieszen, S.R.

    1993-01-01

    This analytical study examines the effect of initial thermodynamic conditions on the loads generated by the combustion of homogeneous hydrogen-air-steam mixtures. The effect of initial temperature, pressure, hydrogen concentration, and steam concentration is evaluated for two cases, (1) constant volume and (2) constant initial pressure. For each case, the Adiabatic, Isochoric, Complete Combustion (AICC), Chapman-Jouguet (CJ), and normally reflected CJ pressures are calculated for a range of hydrogen and steam concentrations representative of the entire flammable regime. For detonation loads, pressure profiles and time-histories are also evaluated in one-dimensional Cartesian geometry. The results show that to a first approximation, the AICC and CJ pressures are directly proportional to the initial density. Increasing the hydrogen concentration up to stoichiometric concentrations significantly increases the AICC, CJ, and reflected CJ pressures. For the constant volume case, the AICC, CJ, and reflected CJ pressures increase with increasing hydrogen concentration on the rich side of stoichiometric concentrations. For the constant initial pressure case, the AICC, CJ, and reflected CJ pressures decrease with increasing hydrogen concentration on the rich side of stoichiometric values. The addition of steam decreases the AICC, CJ, and reflected CJ pressures for the constant initial pressure case, but increases them for the constant volume case. For detonations, the pressure time-histories can be normalized with the AICC pressure and the reverberation time for Cartesion geometry. (orig.)

  16. Accurate initial conditions in mixed Dark Matter--Baryon simulations

    CERN Document Server

    Valkenburg, Wessel

    2017-06-01

    We quantify the error in the results of mixed baryon--dark-matter hydrodynamic simulations, stemming from outdated approximations for the generation of initial conditions. The error at redshift 0 in contemporary large simulations, is of the order of few to ten percent in the power spectra of baryons and dark matter, and their combined total-matter power spectrum. After describing how to properly assign initial displacements and peculiar velocities to multiple species, we review several approximations: (1) {using the total-matter power spectrum to compute displacements and peculiar velocities of both fluids}, (2) scaling the linear redshift-zero power spectrum back to the initial power spectrum using the Newtonian growth factor ignoring homogeneous radiation, (3) using longitudinal-gauge velocities with synchronous-gauge densities, and (4) ignoring the phase-difference in the Fourier modes for the offset baryon grid, relative to the dark-matter grid. Three of these approximations do not take into account that ...

  17. No-hair conjectures, primordial shear and protoinflationary initial conditions

    CERN Document Server

    Giovannini, Massimo

    2014-01-01

    Anisotropic inflationary background geometries are analyzed in the context of an extended gauge action where the electric and magnetic susceptibilities are not bound to coincide and depend on the inflaton field. After deriving various classes of solutions with electric and magnetic hairs, we discuss the problem of the initial boundary conditions of the shear parameter and consider a globally neutral plasma as a possible relic of a preinflationary stage of expansion. While electric hairs are washed out by the finite value of the protoinflationary conductivity, magnetic hairs can persist and introduce a tiny amount of shear causing a different inflationary rate of expansion along orthogonal spatial directions. The plasma interactions are a necessary criterion to discriminate between physical and unphysical initial conditions but they are not strictly sufficient to warrant the stability of a given magnetic solution.

  18. Correlated initial condition for an embedded process by time partitioning

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Velický, Bedřich; Kalvová, Anděla; Špička, Václav

    2010-01-01

    Roč. 81, č. 23 (2010), 235116/1-235116/12 ISSN 1098-0121 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA202/08/0361 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10100520; CEZ:AV0Z10100521 Keywords : non-equilibrium * Initial conditions * decay of correlations * Green's functions * quantum transport equations Subject RIV: BM - Solid Matter Physics ; Magnetism Impact factor: 3.772, year: 2010

  19. Should tsunami models use a nonzero initial condition for horizontal velocity?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nava, G.; Lotto, G. C.; Dunham, E. M.

    2017-12-01

    Tsunami propagation in the open ocean is most commonly modeled by solving the shallow water wave equations. These equations require two initial conditions: one on sea surface height and another on depth-averaged horizontal particle velocity or, equivalently, horizontal momentum. While most modelers assume that initial velocity is zero, Y.T. Song and collaborators have argued for nonzero initial velocity, claiming that horizontal displacement of a sloping seafloor imparts significant horizontal momentum to the ocean. They show examples in which this effect increases the resulting tsunami height by a factor of two or more relative to models in which initial velocity is zero. We test this claim with a "full-physics" integrated dynamic rupture and tsunami model that couples the elastic response of the Earth to the linearized acoustic-gravitational response of a compressible ocean with gravity; the model self-consistently accounts for seismic waves in the solid Earth, acoustic waves in the ocean, and tsunamis (with dispersion at short wavelengths). We run several full-physics simulations of subduction zone megathrust ruptures and tsunamis in geometries with a sloping seafloor, using both idealized structures and a more realistic Tohoku structure. Substantial horizontal momentum is imparted to the ocean, but almost all momentum is carried away in the form of ocean acoustic waves. We compare tsunami propagation in each full-physics simulation to that predicted by an equivalent shallow water wave simulation with varying assumptions regarding initial conditions. We find that the initial horizontal velocity conditions proposed by Song and collaborators consistently overestimate the tsunami amplitude and predict an inconsistent wave profile. Finally, we determine tsunami initial conditions that are rigorously consistent with our full-physics simulations by isolating the tsunami waves (from ocean acoustic and seismic waves) at some final time, and backpropagating the tsunami

  20. Relativistic initial conditions for N-body simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fidler, Christian [Catholic University of Louvain—Center for Cosmology, Particle Physics and Phenomenology (CP3) 2, Chemin du Cyclotron, B-1348 Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium); Tram, Thomas; Crittenden, Robert; Koyama, Kazuya; Wands, David [Institute of Cosmology and Gravitation, University of Portsmouth, Portsmouth PO1 3FX (United Kingdom); Rampf, Cornelius, E-mail: christian.fidler@uclouvain.be, E-mail: thomas.tram@port.ac.uk, E-mail: rampf@thphys.uni-heidelberg.de, E-mail: robert.crittenden@port.ac.uk, E-mail: kazuya.koyama@port.ac.uk, E-mail: david.wands@port.ac.uk [Institut für Theoretische Physik, Universität Heidelberg, Philosophenweg 16, D–69120 Heidelberg (Germany)

    2017-06-01

    Initial conditions for (Newtonian) cosmological N-body simulations are usually set by re-scaling the present-day power spectrum obtained from linear (relativistic) Boltzmann codes to the desired initial redshift of the simulation. This back-scaling method can account for the effect of inhomogeneous residual thermal radiation at early times, which is absent in the Newtonian simulations. We analyse this procedure from a fully relativistic perspective, employing the recently-proposed Newtonian motion gauge framework. We find that N-body simulations for ΛCDM cosmology starting from back-scaled initial conditions can be self-consistently embedded in a relativistic space-time with first-order metric potentials calculated using a linear Boltzmann code. This space-time coincides with a simple ''N-body gauge'' for z < 50 for all observable modes. Care must be taken, however, when simulating non-standard cosmologies. As an example, we analyse the back-scaling method in a cosmology with decaying dark matter, and show that metric perturbations become large at early times in the back-scaling approach, indicating a breakdown of the perturbative description. We suggest a suitable ''forwards approach' for such cases.

  1. Solutions to the Cosmic Initial Entropy Problem without Equilibrium Initial Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vihan M. Patel

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available The entropy of the observable universe is increasing. Thus, at earlier times the entropy was lower. However, the cosmic microwave background radiation reveals an apparently high entropy universe close to thermal and chemical equilibrium. A two-part solution to this cosmic initial entropy problem is proposed. Following Penrose, we argue that the evenly distributed matter of the early universe is equivalent to low gravitational entropy. There are two competing explanations for how this initial low gravitational entropy comes about. (1 Inflation and baryogenesis produce a virtually homogeneous distribution of matter with a low gravitational entropy. (2 Dissatisfied with explaining a low gravitational entropy as the product of a ‘special’ scalar field, some theorists argue (following Boltzmann for a “more natural” initial condition in which the entire universe is in an initial equilibrium state of maximum entropy. In this equilibrium model, our observable universe is an unusual low entropy fluctuation embedded in a high entropy universe. The anthropic principle and the fluctuation theorem suggest that this low entropy region should be as small as possible and have as large an entropy as possible, consistent with our existence. However, our low entropy universe is much larger than needed to produce observers, and we see no evidence for an embedding in a higher entropy background. The initial conditions of inflationary models are as natural as the equilibrium background favored by many theorists.

  2. Curvature profiles as initial conditions for primordial black hole formation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Polnarev, Alexander G; Musco, Ilia

    2007-01-01

    This work is part of an ongoing research programme to study possible primordial black hole (PBH) formation during the radiation-dominated era of the early universe. Working within spherical symmetry, we specify an initial configuration in terms of a curvature profile, which represents initial conditions for the large amplitude metric perturbations, away from the homogeneous Friedmann-Robertson-Walker model, which are required for PBH formation. Using an asymptotic quasi-homogeneous solution, we relate the curvature profile with the density and velocity fields, which at an early enough time, when the length scale of the configuration is much larger than the cosmological horizon, can be treated as small perturbations of the background values. We present general analytic solutions for the density and velocity profiles. These solutions enable us to consider in a self-consistent way the formation of PBHs in a wide variety of cosmological situations with the cosmological fluid being treated as an arbitrary mixture of different components with different equations of state. We obtain the analytical solutions for the density and velocity profiles as functions of the initial time. We then use two different parametrizations for the curvature profile and follow numerically the evolution of initial configurations

  3. Influence of initial conditions on rod behaviour during boiling crisis phase following a reactivity initiated accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Georgenthum, V.; Sugiyama, T.

    2010-01-01

    In the frame of their research programs on high burn-up fuel safety, the French Institute for Radioprotection and Nuclear Safety (IRSN) and the Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA) performed a large set of tests devoted to the study of PWR fuel rod behavior during Reactivity Initiated Accident (RIA) respectively in the CABRI reactor and in the NSRR reactor. The reactor test conditions are different in terms of coolant nature, temperature and pressure. In the CABRI reactor, tests were performed until now with sodium coolant at 280 Celsius degrees and 3 bar. In the NSRR reactor most of the tests were performed with stagnant water at 20 C. degrees and atmospheric pressure but recently a new high temperature high pressure capsule has been developed which allows to performed tests at up to 280 Celsius degrees and 70 bar. The paper discusses the influence of test conditions on rod behaviour during boiling phase, based on tests results and SCANAIR code calculations. The study shows that when the boiling crisis is reached, the initial inner and outer rod pressure have an essential impact on the clad straining and possible ballooning. The analysis of the different test conditions makes it possible to discriminate the influence of initial conditions on the different phases of the transient and is useful for modelling and code development. (authors)

  4. Singularity, initial conditions and quantum tunneling in modern cosmology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khalatnikov, I M; Kamenshchik, A Yu

    1998-01-01

    The key problems of modern cosmology, such as the cosmological singularity, initial conditions, and the quantum tunneling hypothesis, are discussed. The relationship between the latest cosmological trends and L D Landau's old ideas is analyzed. Particular attention is given to the oscillatory approach to singularity; quantum tunneling processes determining wave function of the Universe in the presence of a compex scalar field; and the role of quantum corrections in these processes. The classical dynamics of closed models with a real scalar field is investigated from the standpoint of chaotic, fractal, and singularity-avoiding properties. (special issue)

  5. Linear stochastic differential equations with anticipating initial conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Khalifa, Narjess; Kuo, Hui-Hsiung; Ouerdiane, Habib

    In this paper we use the new stochastic integral introduced by Ayed and Kuo (2008) and the results obtained by Kuo et al. (2012b) to find a solution to a drift-free linear stochastic differential equation with anticipating initial condition. Our solution is based on well-known results from...... classical Itô theory and anticipative Itô formula results from Kue et al. (2012b). We also show that the solution obtained by our method is consistent with the solution obtained by the methods of Malliavin calculus, e.g. Buckdahn and Nualart (1994)....

  6. Initial Development of Four Forest Species in Different Shading Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. C. Silva

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract: Evaluated the initial development through destructive and non-destructive sampling, forest species Adenanthera pavonina, Cassia fistula, Parkia pendula and Hymenolobium petraeum, propagated by seeds at different levels of shading screens black poliefinas (0, 50 and 65% , in the region of Sinop, MT. There were no significant interactions between time and level of shading to any variable. Changes in fresh and dry weight at all levels of shading occurred from 30 DAT. The highest rates of growth were observed in 50% shading to A. pavonina, P. pendula and H. petraeum and 65% shading for C. fistula.Keywords: seedling, growth, physiology, climatic conditions.

  7. Prediction of fretting fatigue behavior under elastic-plastic conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shin, Ki Su

    2009-01-01

    Fretting fatigue generally leads to the degradation of the fatigue strength of a material due to cyclic micro-slip between two contacting materials. Fretting fatigue is regarded as an important issue in designing aerospace structures. While many studies have evaluated fretting fatigue behavior under elastic deformation conditions, few have focused on fretting fatigue behavior under elastic-plastic deformation conditions, especially the crack orientation and fatigue life prediction for Ti-6Al-4V. The primary goal of this study was to characterize the fretting fatigue crack initiation behavior in the presence of plasticity. Experimental tests were performed using pad configurations involving elastic-plastic deformations. To calculate stress distributions under elastic-plastic fretting fatigue conditions, FEA was also performed. Several parametric approaches were used to predict fretting fatigue life along with stress distribution resulting from FEA. However, those parameters using surface stresses were unable to establish an equivalence between elastic fretting fatigue data and elastic-plastic fretting fatigue data. Based on this observation, the critical distance methods, which are commonly used in notch analysis, were applied to the fretting fatigue problem. In conclusion, the effective strain range method when used in conjunction with the SMSSR parameter showed a good correlation of data points between the pad configurations involving elastic and elastic plastic deformations

  8. Predicting Covariance Matrices with Financial Conditions Indexes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A. Opschoor (Anne); D.J.C. van Dijk (Dick); M. van der Wel (Michel)

    2013-01-01

    textabstractWe model the impact of financial conditions on asset market volatility and correlation. We propose extensions of (factor-)GARCH models for volatility and DCC models for correlation that allow for including indexes that measure financial conditions. In our empirical application we

  9. Fatigue crack initiation and growth life prediction with statistical consideration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kwon, J.D.; Choi, S.H.; Kwak, S.G.; Chun, K.O.

    1991-01-01

    Life prediction or residual life prediction of structures or machines is one of the most strongly world wide needed problems as requirement in the stage of slowly developing economy which comes after rapidly and highly developing stage. For the purpose of statistical life prediction, fatigue test was conducted under the 3 stress levels, and for each stress level, 20 specimens are used. The statistical properties of the crack growth parameter m and C in the fatigue crack growth law of da/dN = C(ΔK) m , and the relationship between m and C, and the statistical distribution pattern of fatigue crack initiation, growth and fracture lives can be obtained by experimental results

  10. Identification of spatially-localized initial conditions via sparse PCA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dwivedi, Anubhav; Jovanovic, Mihailo

    2017-11-01

    Principal Component Analysis involves maximization of a quadratic form subject to a quadratic constraint on the initial flow perturbations and it is routinely used to identify the most energetic flow structures. For general flow configurations, principal components can be efficiently computed via power iteration of the forward and adjoint governing equations. However, the resulting flow structures typically have a large spatial support leading to a question of physical realizability. To obtain spatially-localized structures, we modify the quadratic constraint on the initial condition to include a convex combination with an additional regularization term which promotes sparsity in the physical domain. We formulate this constrained optimization problem as a nonlinear eigenvalue problem and employ an inverse power-iteration-based method to solve it. The resulting solution is guaranteed to converge to a nonlinear eigenvector which becomes increasingly localized as our emphasis on sparsity increases. We use several fluids examples to demonstrate that our method indeed identifies the most energetic initial perturbations that are spatially compact. This work was supported by Office of Naval Research through Grant Number N00014-15-1-2522.

  11. Integrated Modeling for Road Condition Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-12-31

    Transportation Systems Management and Operations (TSMO) is at a critical point in its development due to an explosion in data availability and analytics. Intelligent transportation systems (ITS) gathering data about weather and traffic conditions cou...

  12. Integrated Modeling for Road Condition Prediction (IMRCP)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2018-01-17

    Intelligent transportation system deployments have enabled great advances in operational awareness and response based on the data they gather on the current state of the roadways. The next step in decision support is to forecast road conditions and b...

  13. Probing the cosmological initial conditions using the CMB

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yadav, Amit P. S.

    In the last few decades, advances in observational cosmology have given us a standard model of cosmology. The basic cosmological parameters have been laid out to high precision. Cosmologists have started asking questions about the nature of the cosmological initial conditions. Many ambitious experiments such as Planck satellite, EBEX, ACT, CAPMAP, QUaD, BICEP, SPIDER, QUIET, and GEM are underway. Experiments like these will provide us with a wealth of information about CMB polarization, CMB lensing, and polarization foregrounds. These experiments will be complemented with great observational campaigns to map the 3D structure in the Universe and new particle physics constraints from the Large Hadron Collider. In my graduate work I have made explicit how observations of the CMB temperature and E-polarization anisotropies can be combined to provide optimal constraints on models of the early universe at the highest energies. I have developed new ways of constraining models of the early universe using CMB temperature and polarization data. Inflation is one of the most promising theories of the early universe. Different inflationary models predict different amounts of non-Gaussian perturbations. Although any non-Gaussianity predicted by the canonical inflation model is very small, there exist models which can generate significant amounts of non-Gaussianities. Hence any characterization of non-Gaussianity of the primordial perturbations constrains the models of inflation. The information in the bispectrum (or higher order moments) is completely independent of the power spectrum constraints on the amplitude of primordial power spectrum (A), the scalar spectral index of the primordial power spectrum ns, and the running of the primordial power spectrum. My work has made it possible to extract the bispectrum information from large, high resolution CMB temperature and polarization data. We have demonstrated that the primordial adiabatic perturbations can be reconstructed using

  14. Quantifying uncertainty in Gulf of Mexico forecasts stemming from uncertain initial conditions

    KAUST Repository

    Iskandarani, Mohamed

    2016-06-09

    Polynomial Chaos (PC) methods are used to quantify the impacts of initial conditions uncertainties on oceanic forecasts of the Gulf of Mexico circulation. Empirical Orthogonal Functions are used as initial conditions perturbations with their modal amplitudes considered as uniformly distributed uncertain random variables. These perturbations impact primarily the Loop Current system and several frontal eddies located in its vicinity. A small ensemble is used to sample the space of the modal amplitudes and to construct a surrogate for the evolution of the model predictions via a nonintrusive Galerkin projection. The analysis of the surrogate yields verification measures for the surrogate\\'s reliability and statistical information for the model output. A variance analysis indicates that the sea surface height predictability in the vicinity of the Loop Current is limited to about 20 days. © 2016. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.

  15. Predicting birth weight with conditionally linear transformation models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Möst, Lisa; Schmid, Matthias; Faschingbauer, Florian; Hothorn, Torsten

    2016-12-01

    Low and high birth weight (BW) are important risk factors for neonatal morbidity and mortality. Gynecologists must therefore accurately predict BW before delivery. Most prediction formulas for BW are based on prenatal ultrasound measurements carried out within one week prior to birth. Although successfully used in clinical practice, these formulas focus on point predictions of BW but do not systematically quantify uncertainty of the predictions, i.e. they result in estimates of the conditional mean of BW but do not deliver prediction intervals. To overcome this problem, we introduce conditionally linear transformation models (CLTMs) to predict BW. Instead of focusing only on the conditional mean, CLTMs model the whole conditional distribution function of BW given prenatal ultrasound parameters. Consequently, the CLTM approach delivers both point predictions of BW and fetus-specific prediction intervals. Prediction intervals constitute an easy-to-interpret measure of prediction accuracy and allow identification of fetuses subject to high prediction uncertainty. Using a data set of 8712 deliveries at the Perinatal Centre at the University Clinic Erlangen (Germany), we analyzed variants of CLTMs and compared them to standard linear regression estimation techniques used in the past and to quantile regression approaches. The best-performing CLTM variant was competitive with quantile regression and linear regression approaches in terms of conditional coverage and average length of the prediction intervals. We propose that CLTMs be used because they are able to account for possible heteroscedasticity, kurtosis, and skewness of the distribution of BWs. © The Author(s) 2014.

  16. Predicting Comorbid Conditions and Trajectories using Social Health Records.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ji, Xiang; Ae Chun, Soon; Geller, James

    2016-05-05

    Many patients suffer from comorbidity conditions, for example, obese patients often develop type-2 diabetes and hypertension. In the US, 80% of Medicare spending is for managing patients with these multiple coexisting conditions. Predicting potential comorbidity conditions for an individual patient can promote preventive care and reduce costs. Predicting possible comorbidity progression paths can provide important insights into population heath and aid with decisions in public health policies. Discovering the comorbidity relationships is complex and difficult, due to limited access to Electronic Health Records by privacy laws. In this paper, we present a collaborative comorbidity prediction method to predict likely comorbid conditions for individual patients, and a trajectory prediction graph model to reveal progression paths of comorbid conditions. Our prediction approaches utilize patient generated health reports on online social media, called Social Health Records (SHR). The experimental results based on one SHR source show that our method is able to predict future comorbid conditions for a patient with coverage values of 48% and 75% for a top-20 and a top-100 ranked list, respectively. For risk trajectory prediction, our approach is able to reveal each potential progression trajectory between any two conditions and infer the confidence of the future trajectory, given any observed condition. The predicted trajectories are validated with existing comorbidity relations from the medical literature.

  17. Assessment of initial soil moisture conditions for event-based rainfall-runoff modelling

    OpenAIRE

    Tramblay, Yves; Bouvier, Christophe; Martin, C.; Didon-Lescot, J. F.; Todorovik, D.; Domergue, J. M.

    2010-01-01

    Flash floods are the most destructive natural hazards that occur in the Mediterranean region. Rainfall-runoff models can be very useful for flash flood forecasting and prediction. Event-based models are very popular for operational purposes, but there is a need to reduce the uncertainties related to the initial moisture conditions estimation prior to a flood event. This paper aims to compare several soil moisture indicators: local Time Domain Reflectometry (TDR) measurements of soil moisture,...

  18. Neural plasticity and its initiating conditions in tinnitus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, L E

    2018-03-01

    Deafferentation caused by cochlear pathology (which can be hidden from the audiogram) activates forms of neural plasticity in auditory pathways, generating tinnitus and its associated conditions including hyperacusis. This article discusses tinnitus mechanisms and suggests how these mechanisms may relate to those involved in normal auditory information processing. Research findings from animal models of tinnitus and from electromagnetic imaging of tinnitus patients are reviewed which pertain to the role of deafferentation and neural plasticity in tinnitus and hyperacusis. Auditory neurons compensate for deafferentation by increasing their input/output functions (gain) at multiple levels of the auditory system. Forms of homeostatic plasticity are believed to be responsible for this neural change, which increases the spontaneous and driven activity of neurons in central auditory structures in animals expressing behavioral evidence of tinnitus. Another tinnitus correlate, increased neural synchrony among the affected neurons, is forged by spike-timing-dependent neural plasticity in auditory pathways. Slow oscillations generated by bursting thalamic neurons verified in tinnitus animals appear to modulate neural plasticity in the cortex, integrating tinnitus neural activity with information in brain regions supporting memory, emotion, and consciousness which exhibit increased metabolic activity in tinnitus patients. The latter process may be induced by transient auditory events in normal processing but it persists in tinnitus, driven by phantom signals from the auditory pathway. Several tinnitus therapies attempt to suppress tinnitus through plasticity, but repeated sessions will likely be needed to prevent tinnitus activity from returning owing to deafferentation as its initiating condition.

  19. Charging conditions research to increase the initial projected velocity at different initial charge temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ishchenko, Aleksandr; Burkin, Viktor; Kasimov, Vladimir; Samorokova, Nina; Zykova, Angelica; Diachkovskii, Alexei

    2017-11-01

    The problems of the defense industry occupy the most important place in the constantly developing modern world. The daily development of defense technology does not stop, nor do studies on internal ballistics. The scientists of the whole world are faced with the task of managing the main characteristics of a ballistic experiment. The main characteristics of the ballistic experiment are the maximum pressure in the combustion chamber Pmax and the projected velocity at the time of barrel leaving UM. During the work the combustion law of the new high-energy fuel was determined in a ballistic experiment for different initial temperatures. This combustion law was used for a parametric study of depending Pmax and UM from a powder charge mass and a traveling charge was carried out. The optimal conditions for loading were obtained for improving the initial velocity at pressures up to 600 MPa for different initial temperatures. In this paper, one of the most promising schemes of throwing is considered, as well as a method for increasing the muzzle velocity of a projected element to 3317 m/s.

  20. Multi-Scale Initial Conditions For Cosmological Simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hahn, Oliver; /KIPAC, Menlo Park; Abel, Tom; /KIPAC, Menlo Park /ZAH, Heidelberg /HITS, Heidelberg

    2011-11-04

    We discuss a new algorithm to generate multi-scale initial conditions with multiple levels of refinements for cosmological 'zoom-in' simulations. The method uses an adaptive convolution of Gaussian white noise with a real-space transfer function kernel together with an adaptive multi-grid Poisson solver to generate displacements and velocities following first- (1LPT) or second-order Lagrangian perturbation theory (2LPT). The new algorithm achieves rms relative errors of the order of 10{sup -4} for displacements and velocities in the refinement region and thus improves in terms of errors by about two orders of magnitude over previous approaches. In addition, errors are localized at coarse-fine boundaries and do not suffer from Fourier-space-induced interference ringing. An optional hybrid multi-grid and Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) based scheme is introduced which has identical Fourier-space behaviour as traditional approaches. Using a suite of re-simulations of a galaxy cluster halo our real-space-based approach is found to reproduce correlation functions, density profiles, key halo properties and subhalo abundances with per cent level accuracy. Finally, we generalize our approach for two-component baryon and dark-matter simulations and demonstrate that the power spectrum evolution is in excellent agreement with linear perturbation theory. For initial baryon density fields, it is suggested to use the local Lagrangian approximation in order to generate a density field for mesh-based codes that is consistent with the Lagrangian perturbation theory instead of the current practice of using the Eulerian linearly scaled densities.

  1. The Effect of Initial Irrigation Conditions on Heap Leaching Efficiency

    Science.gov (United States)

    Briseño Arellano, A. D.; Milczarek, M.; Yao, M.; Brusseau, M. L. L.

    2017-12-01

    Heap leaching is an unsaturated flow metal recovery process, in which mined ore is irrigated with a lixiviant to dissolve metal contained in the ore. The metal is then extracted from solution. Large scale operations involve stacking ore to depths of 6 to 18 meters on pads that may be hundreds of hectares in area. Heterogeneities within the stacked ore can lead to uneven wetting and the formation of preferential flow pathways, which reduces solution contact and lowers metal recovery. Furthermore, mineral dissolution can cause alteration of the porous media structure and loss of ore permeability. Many mine operators believe that slow initial irrigation rates help minimize permeability loss and increase metal recovery rates. However, this phenomenon has not been studied in detail. Experiments were conducted to investigate the effect of varying initial irrigation rates on leach ore stability. These were conducted with large columns (1.5 m high, 0.5 m in diameter) packed with crushed ore samples that are known to have permeability constraints. The columns were highly instrumented to assess potential changes in material properties both spatially and temporally. Water content was measured with three different methods: capacitance soil moisture sensors placed at 20-cm intervals; a neutron probe to periodically log every 30 cm from four different directions; and electrical resistivity sensors to create a 2-dimensional tomography profile of water content over time. Tensiometers were paired with the soil moisture sensors to measure matric suction and characterize moisture retention characteristics. A non-reactive tracer was used to characterize advective-dispersive transport under unsaturated conditions. A dye solution was introduced at the end of each experiment to map preferential pathways. Continuous monitoring of settling at the surface assisted in measuring consolidation and loss in permeability.

  2. Hydrometeorological threshold conditions for debris flow initiation in Norway

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. K. Meyer

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Debris flows, triggered by extreme precipitation events and rapid snow melt, cause considerable damage to the Norwegian infrastructure every year. To define intensity-duration (ID thresholds for debris flow initiation critical water supply conditions arising from intensive rainfall or snow melt were assessed on the basis of daily hydro-meteorological information for 502 documented debris flow events. Two threshold types were computed: one based on absolute ID relationships and one using ID relationships normalized by the local precipitation day normal (PDN. For each threshold type, minimum, medium and maximum threshold values were defined by fitting power law curves along the 10th, 50th and 90th percentiles of the data population. Depending on the duration of the event, the absolute threshold intensities needed for debris flow initiation vary between 15 and 107 mm day−1. Since the PDN changes locally, the normalized thresholds show spatial variations. Depending on location, duration and threshold level, the normalized threshold intensities vary between 6 and 250 mm day−1. The thresholds obtained were used for a frequency analysis of over-threshold events giving an estimation of the exceedance probability and thus potential for debris flow events in different parts of Norway. The absolute thresholds are most often exceeded along the west coast, while the normalized thresholds are most frequently exceeded on the west-facing slopes of the Norwegian mountain ranges. The minimum thresholds derived in this study are in the range of other thresholds obtained for regions with a climate comparable to Norway. Statistics reveal that the normalized threshold is more reliable than the absolute threshold as the former shows no spatial clustering of debris flows related to water supply events captured by the threshold.

  3. Prediction of Machine Tool Condition Using Support Vector Machine

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Peigong; Meng Qingfeng; Zhao Jian; Li Junjie; Wang Xiufeng

    2011-01-01

    Condition monitoring and predicting of CNC machine tools are investigated in this paper. Considering the CNC machine tools are often small numbers of samples, a condition predicting method for CNC machine tools based on support vector machines (SVMs) is proposed, then one-step and multi-step condition prediction models are constructed. The support vector machines prediction models are used to predict the trends of working condition of a certain type of CNC worm wheel and gear grinding machine by applying sequence data of vibration signal, which is collected during machine processing. And the relationship between different eigenvalue in CNC vibration signal and machining quality is discussed. The test result shows that the trend of vibration signal Peak-to-peak value in surface normal direction is most relevant to the trend of surface roughness value. In trends prediction of working condition, support vector machine has higher prediction accuracy both in the short term ('One-step') and long term (multi-step) prediction compared to autoregressive (AR) model and the RBF neural network. Experimental results show that it is feasible to apply support vector machine to CNC machine tool condition prediction.

  4. Conditional Probabilities in the Excursion Set Theory. Generic Barriers and non-Gaussian Initial Conditions

    CERN Document Server

    De Simone, Andrea; Riotto, Antonio

    2011-01-01

    The excursion set theory, where density perturbations evolve stochastically with the smoothing scale, provides a method for computing the dark matter halo mass function. The computation of the mass function is mapped into the so-called first-passage time problem in the presence of a moving barrier. The excursion set theory is also a powerful formalism to study other properties of dark matter halos such as halo bias, accretion rate, formation time, merging rate and the formation history of halos. This is achieved by computing conditional probabilities with non-trivial initial conditions, and the conditional two-barrier first-crossing rate. In this paper we use the recently-developed path integral formulation of the excursion set theory to calculate analytically these conditional probabilities in the presence of a generic moving barrier, including the one describing the ellipsoidal collapse, and for both Gaussian and non-Gaussian initial conditions. The non-Markovianity of the random walks induced by non-Gaussi...

  5. Exploring Proposals for Resolving the Initial Conditions and Multiverse Problems in Inflation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panithanpaisal, Nondh; Steinhardt, Paul

    2018-01-01

    The theory of cosmic inflation with the plateau-like potentials for the scalar field is very successful in predicting standard cosmological parameters. However, if the quantum effects are included, the theory inherently contains serious problems, namely, the multiverse problem and the initial conditions problem. It has been suggested in Mukhanov 2015 and Deen et al. 2016 to add a potential wall to the potential, so that the field never reaches the self-reproduction point. We examine these two proposals by varying the positions of the potential wall as well as varying the initial ratios of kinetic energy, potential energy and curvature. We demonstrate that both proposals are fine-tuned, at best, as they suffer from the drift in the predictions of the spectral tilt (ns) and the tensor-to-scalar ratio (r).

  6. Variation formulae for the solutions of delay differential equations with discontinuous initial conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kharatishvili, G L; Tadumadze, T A

    2005-01-01

    Variation formulae are proved for solutions of non-linear differential equations with variable delays and discontinuous initial conditions. The discontinuity of the initial condition means that at the initial moment of time the values of the initial function and the trajectory, generally speaking, do not coincide. The formulae obtained contain a new summand connected with the discontinuity of the initial condition and the variation of the initial moment.

  7. Exact solution for four-order acousto-optic Bragg diffraction with arbitrary initial conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pieper, Ron; Koslover, Deborah; Poon, Ting-Chung

    2009-03-01

    An exact solution to the four-order acousto-optic (AO) Bragg diffraction problem with arbitrary initial conditions compatible with exact Bragg angle incident light is developed. The solution, obtained by solving a 4th-order differential equation, is formalized into a transition matrix operator predicting diffracted light orders at the exit of the AO cell in terms of the same diffracted light orders at the entrance. It is shown that the transition matrix is unitary and that this unitary matrix condition is sufficient to guarantee energy conservation. A comparison of analytical solutions with numerical predictions validates the formalism. Although not directly related to the approach used to obtain the solution, it was discovered that all four generated eigenvalues from the four-order AO differential matrix operator are expressed simply in terms of Euclid's Divine Proportion.

  8. An alternative phase-space distribution to sample initial conditions for classical dynamics simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garcia-Vela, A.

    2002-01-01

    A new quantum-type phase-space distribution is proposed in order to sample initial conditions for classical trajectory simulations. The phase-space distribution is obtained as the modulus of a quantum phase-space state of the system, defined as the direct product of the coordinate and momentum representations of the quantum initial state. The distribution is tested by sampling initial conditions which reproduce the initial state of the Ar-HCl cluster prepared by ultraviolet excitation, and by simulating the photodissociation dynamics by classical trajectories. The results are compared with those of a wave packet calculation, and with a classical simulation using an initial phase-space distribution recently suggested. A better agreement is found between the classical and the quantum predictions with the present phase-space distribution, as compared with the previous one. This improvement is attributed to the fact that the phase-space distribution propagated classically in this work resembles more closely the shape of the wave packet propagated quantum mechanically

  9. Fractional differential equation with the fuzzy initial condition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sadia Arshad

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we study the existence and uniqueness of the solution for a class of fractional differential equation with fuzzy initial value. The fractional derivatives are considered in the Riemann-Liouville sense.

  10. Broccoli (Brassica oleracea var. italica head initiation under field conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alina Kałużewicz

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available A two–year study on the influence of temperature on broccoli head initiation was carried out at the ''Marcelin'' experimental station of the Poznań University of Life Sciences. In each year of the study, plants were planted in the field at four dates. The evaluation of the developmental phase of the broccoli shoot apex was based on the analysis of microscope slides. The date of head initiation was assumed as the day on which the first of the examined apices were found to be at the early generative phase. The plant characteristics (number of leaves, leaf area and stem diameter on the date of initiation were also determined. Variation in length of the period from planting to head initiation was found both between dates of planting and between experimental years. The shortest period from planting to initiation was when the plants were planted in April and June (17-18 days in the first year and the longest one for planting in April in the first year of the study (29 days. The length of the period from planting to head initiation depended on mean daily air temperature. The higher the temperature was, the shorter was the period.

  11. A new Method for the Estimation of Initial Condition Uncertainty Structures in Mesoscale Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keller, J. D.; Bach, L.; Hense, A.

    2012-12-01

    The estimation of fast growing error modes of a system is a key interest of ensemble data assimilation when assessing uncertainty in initial conditions. Over the last two decades three methods (and variations of these methods) have evolved for global numerical weather prediction models: ensemble Kalman filter, singular vectors and breeding of growing modes (or now ensemble transform). While the former incorporates a priori model error information and observation error estimates to determine ensemble initial conditions, the latter two techniques directly address the error structures associated with Lyapunov vectors. However, in global models these structures are mainly associated with transient global wave patterns. When assessing initial condition uncertainty in mesoscale limited area models, several problems regarding the aforementioned techniques arise: (a) additional sources of uncertainty on the smaller scales contribute to the error and (b) error structures from the global scale may quickly move through the model domain (depending on the size of the domain). To address the latter problem, perturbation structures from global models are often included in the mesoscale predictions as perturbed boundary conditions. However, the initial perturbations (when used) are often generated with a variant of an ensemble Kalman filter which does not necessarily focus on the large scale error patterns. In the framework of the European regional reanalysis project of the Hans-Ertel-Center for Weather Research we use a mesoscale model with an implemented nudging data assimilation scheme which does not support ensemble data assimilation at all. In preparation of an ensemble-based regional reanalysis and for the estimation of three-dimensional atmospheric covariance structures, we implemented a new method for the assessment of fast growing error modes for mesoscale limited area models. The so-called self-breeding is development based on the breeding of growing modes technique

  12. Effect of Initial Hydraulic Conditions on Capillary Rise in a Porous Medium: Pore-Network Modeling

    KAUST Repository

    Joekar-Niasar, V.; Hassanizadeh, S. M.

    2012-01-01

    The dynamics of capillary rise in a porous medium have been mostly studied in initially dry systems. As initial saturation and initial hydraulic conditions in many natural and industrial porous media can be variable, it is important to investigate

  13. Quantifying uncertainty in Gulf of Mexico forecasts stemming from uncertain initial conditions

    KAUST Repository

    Iskandarani, Mohamed; Le Hé naff, Matthieu; Srinivasan, Ashwanth; Knio, Omar

    2016-01-01

    Polynomial Chaos (PC) methods are used to quantify the impacts of initial conditions uncertainties on oceanic forecasts of the Gulf of Mexico circulation. Empirical Orthogonal Functions are used as initial conditions perturbations with their modal

  14. Reaction-diffusion fronts with inhomogeneous initial conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bena, I [Departement de Physique Theorique, Universite de Geneve, CH-1211 Geneva 4 (Switzerland); Droz, M [Departement de Physique Theorique, Universite de Geneve, CH-1211 Geneva 4 (Switzerland); Martens, K [Departement de Physique Theorique, Universite de Geneve, CH-1211 Geneva 4 (Switzerland); Racz, Z [Institute for Theoretical Physics, Eoetvoes University, 1117 Budapest (Hungary)

    2007-02-14

    Properties of reaction zones resulting from A+B {yields} C type reaction-diffusion processes are investigated by analytical and numerical methods. The reagents A and B are separated initially and, in addition, there is an initial macroscopic inhomogeneity in the distribution of the B species. For simple two-dimensional geometries, exact analytical results are presented for the time evolution of the geometric shape of the front. We also show using cellular automata simulations that the fluctuations can be neglected both in the shape and in the width of the front.

  15. Initial Conditions Corresponding to Optimal Ion Acceleration in the VINCY Cyclotron

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ilic, A. Z.; Ristic-Djurovic, J. L.; Cirkovic, S. T.

    2007-01-01

    The quality of a beam in a cyclotron depends a lot on the choice of initial conditions for acceleration. The criteria defining optimal acceleration as well as the choice of the corresponding initial conditions have been outlined. The results of beam dynamics simulations with optimal and non-optimal initial conditions are compared. (author)

  16. Initial orthostatic hypotension: review of a forgotten condition

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wieling, Wouter; Krediet, C. T. Paul; van Dijk, Nynke; Linzer, Mark; Tschakovsky, Michael E.

    2007-01-01

    Several studies have shown that standing up is a frequent (3-10 %) trigger of loss of consciousness both in young and old subjects. An exaggerated transient BP (blood pressure) fall upon standing is the underlying cause. IOH (initial orthostatic hypotension) is defined as a transient BP decrease

  17. Prediction of LOFT core fluid conditions during blowdown and refill

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grush, W.H.; White, J.R.

    1978-01-01

    One of the primary objectives of the LOFT (Loss-of-Fluid Test) Program is to provide data required to evaluate and improve the analytical methods currently used to predict the LOCA (Loss-of-Coolant Accident) response of large pressurized water reactors. The purpose of the paper is to describe the computer modeling methods used in predicting the fluid conditions in the LOFT core during the blowdown and refill phases of a nuclear LOCE (Loss-of-Coolant Experiment). Prediction results for a LOFT nonnuclear isothermal LOCE are compared to the experimental data to illustrate the validity of the modeling choices

  18. Recovery methods of the dragonfly from irregular initial conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melfi, James; Leonardo, Anthony; Wang, Jane

    We release dragonflies from a magnetic tether in a wide range of initial orientations, which results in them utilizing multiple methods to regain their typical flight orientation. Special focus is placed on dropping them while upside down, as the recovery method used is a purely rolling motion. Filming this stereotypical motion with a trio of high speed cameras at 4000 fps, we capture detailed body and wing kinematics data to determine how the dragonfly generates this motion. By replaying the flights within a computer simulation, we can isolate the significant changes to wing kinematics, and find that it is an asymmetry in the wing pitch which generates the roll. Further investigation demonstrates that this choice is highly dependent upon the state of the dragonfly, and as such our results indicate the dragonfly both tracks its current state, and changes its mid-flight control mechanisms accordingly.

  19. Identifying Initial Condition in Degenerate Parabolic Equation with Singular Potential

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Atifi

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available A hybrid algorithm and regularization method are proposed, for the first time, to solve the one-dimensional degenerate inverse heat conduction problem to estimate the initial temperature distribution from point measurements. The evolution of the heat is given by a degenerate parabolic equation with singular potential. This problem can be formulated in a least-squares framework, an iterative procedure which minimizes the difference between the given measurements and the value at sensor locations of a reconstructed field. The mathematical model leads to a nonconvex minimization problem. To solve it, we prove the existence of at least one solution of problem and we propose two approaches: the first is based on a Tikhonov regularization, while the second approach is based on a hybrid genetic algorithm (married genetic with descent method type gradient. Some numerical experiments are given.

  20. Predicting the Initial Lapse Using a Mobile Health Application after Alcohol Detoxification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chih, Ming-Yuan

    2013-01-01

    The prediction and prevention of the initial lapse--which is defined as the first lapse after a period of abstinence--is important because the initial lapse often leads to subsequent lapses (within the same lapse episode) or relapse. The prediction of the initial lapse may allow preemptive intervention to be possible. This dissertation reports on…

  1. Conditional mode regression: Application to functional time series prediction

    OpenAIRE

    Dabo-Niang, Sophie; Laksaci, Ali

    2008-01-01

    We consider $\\alpha$-mixing observations and deal with the estimation of the conditional mode of a scalar response variable $Y$ given a random variable $X$ taking values in a semi-metric space. We provide a convergence rate in $L^p$ norm of the estimator. A useful and typical application to functional times series prediction is given.

  2. Cosmological Simulations with Scale-Free Initial Conditions. I. Adiabatic Hydrodynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Owen, J.M.; Weinberg, D.H.; Evrard, A.E.; Hernquist, L.; Katz, N.

    1998-01-01

    We analyze hierarchical structure formation based on scale-free initial conditions in an Einstein endash de Sitter universe, including a baryonic component with Ω bary = 0.05. We present three independent, smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) simulations, performed at two resolutions (32 3 and 64 3 dark matter and baryonic particles) and with two different SPH codes (TreeSPH and P3MSPH). Each simulation is based on identical initial conditions, which consist of Gaussian-distributed initial density fluctuations that have a power spectrum P(k) ∝ k -1 . The baryonic material is modeled as an ideal gas subject only to shock heating and adiabatic heating and cooling; radiative cooling and photoionization heating are not included. The evolution is expected to be self-similar in time, and under certain restrictions we identify the expected scalings for many properties of the distribution of collapsed objects in all three realizations. The distributions of dark matter masses, baryon masses, and mass- and emission-weighted temperatures scale quite reliably. However, the density estimates in the central regions of these structures are determined by the degree of numerical resolution. As a result, mean gas densities and Bremsstrahlung luminosities obey the expected scalings only when calculated within a limited dynamic range in density contrast. The temperatures and luminosities of the groups show tight correlations with the baryon masses, which we find can be well represented by power laws. The Press-Schechter (PS) approximation predicts the distribution of group dark matter and baryon masses fairly well, though it tends to overestimate the baryon masses. Combining the PS mass distribution with the measured relations for T(M) and L(M) predicts the temperature and luminosity distributions fairly accurately, though there are some discrepancies at high temperatures/luminosities. In general the three simulations agree well for the properties of resolved groups, where a group

  3. Soil erosion and effluent particle size distribution under different initial conditions and rock fragment coverage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jomaa, S.; Barry, D. A.; Brovelli, A.; Heng, B. C. P.; Sander, G. C.; Parlange, J.-Y.

    2012-04-01

    It is well known that the presence of rock fragments on the soil surface and the soil's initial characteristics (moisture content, surface roughness, bulk density, etc.) are key factors influencing soil erosion dynamics and sediment delivery. In addition, the interaction of these factors increases the complexity of soil erosion patterns and makes predictions more difficult. The aim of this study was (i) to investigate the effect of soil initial conditions and rock fragment coverage on soil erosion yields and effluent particle size distribution and (ii) to evaluate to what extent the rock fragment coverage controls this relationship. Three laboratory flume experiments with constant precipitation rate of 74 mm/h on a loamy soil parcel with a 2% slope were performed. Experiments with duration of 2 h were conducted using the 6-m × 2-m EPFL erosion flume. During each experiment two conditions were considered, a bare soil and a rock fragment-protected (with 40% coverage) soil. The initial soil surface state was varied between the three experiments, from a freshly re-ploughed and almost dry condition to a compacted soil with a well-developed shield layer and high moisture content. Experiments were designed so that rain splash was the primary driver of soil erosion. Results showed that the amount of eroded mass was highly controlled by the initial soil conditions and whether the steady-state equilibrium was un-, partially- or fully- developed during the previous event. Additionally, results revealed that sediment yields and particle size composition in the initial part of an erosion event are more sensitive to the erosion history than the long-time behaviour. This latter appears to be mainly controlled by rainfall intensity. If steady-state was achieved for a previous event, then the next event consistently produced concentrations for each size class that peaked rapidly, and then declined gradually to steady-state equilibrium. If steady state was not obtained, then

  4. The conditions that promote fear learning: prediction error and Pavlovian fear conditioning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Susan Shi Yuan; McNally, Gavan P

    2014-02-01

    A key insight of associative learning theory is that learning depends on the actions of prediction error: a discrepancy between the actual and expected outcomes of a conditioning trial. When positive, such error causes increments in associative strength and, when negative, such error causes decrements in associative strength. Prediction error can act directly on fear learning by determining the effectiveness of the aversive unconditioned stimulus or indirectly by determining the effectiveness, or associability, of the conditioned stimulus. Evidence from a variety of experimental preparations in human and non-human animals suggest that discrete neural circuits code for these actions of prediction error during fear learning. Here we review the circuits and brain regions contributing to the neural coding of prediction error during fear learning and highlight areas of research (safety learning, extinction, and reconsolidation) that may profit from this approach to understanding learning. Crown Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Predicting 2D target velocity cannot help 2D motion integration for smooth pursuit initiation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montagnini, Anna; Spering, Miriam; Masson, Guillaume S

    2006-12-01

    Smooth pursuit eye movements reflect the temporal dynamics of bidimensional (2D) visual motion integration. When tracking a single, tilted line, initial pursuit direction is biased toward unidimensional (1D) edge motion signals, which are orthogonal to the line orientation. Over 200 ms, tracking direction is slowly corrected to finally match the 2D object motion during steady-state pursuit. We now show that repetition of line orientation and/or motion direction does not eliminate the transient tracking direction error nor change the time course of pursuit correction. Nonetheless, multiple successive presentations of a single orientation/direction condition elicit robust anticipatory pursuit eye movements that always go in the 2D object motion direction not the 1D edge motion direction. These results demonstrate that predictive signals about target motion cannot be used for an efficient integration of ambiguous velocity signals at pursuit initiation.

  6. Prediction of the remaining lifetime of stainless steels under conditions of stress corrosion cracking

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tandler, M.; Vehovar, L.; Dolecek, V.; Rotnik, U.

    2003-01-01

    The prediction of the lifetime of metal structures and equipment under conditions of stress corrosion is very complicated because of the complexity of this process of degradation. Recently a new method, based on the so-called corrosion elongation curves, has been found, which can be used to predict the time to failure under these conditions. By upgrading of these curves (and thus obtaining Upgraded Corrosion Elongation Curves - UCEC's) it has been possible to obtain a precise definition of the time needed for the initiation of the corrosion crack, and for its stable growth. It is upon this basis that diagrams for the prediction of remaining lifetime (DPRL's) have been developed. DPRL's can also be used to predict the values of various critical parameters which have to be achieved if a stress corrosion crack is to occur. (Abstract Copyright [2003], Wiley Periodicals, Inc.) [de

  7. Deep recurrent conditional random field network for protein secondary prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Johansen, Alexander Rosenberg; Sønderby, Søren Kaae; Sønderby, Casper Kaae

    2017-01-01

    Deep learning has become the state-of-the-art method for predicting protein secondary structure from only its amino acid residues and sequence profile. Building upon these results, we propose to combine a bi-directional recurrent neural network (biRNN) with a conditional random field (CRF), which...... of the labels for all time-steps. We condition the CRF on the output of biRNN, which learns a distributed representation based on the entire sequence. The biRNN-CRF is therefore close to ideally suited for the secondary structure task because a high degree of cross-talk between neighboring elements can...

  8. Predicting speech intelligibility in conditions with nonlinearly processed noisy speech

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Søren; Dau, Torsten

    2013-01-01

    The speech-based envelope power spectrum model (sEPSM; [1]) was proposed in order to overcome the limitations of the classical speech transmission index (STI) and speech intelligibility index (SII). The sEPSM applies the signal-tonoise ratio in the envelope domain (SNRenv), which was demonstrated...... to successfully predict speech intelligibility in conditions with nonlinearly processed noisy speech, such as processing with spectral subtraction. Moreover, a multiresolution version (mr-sEPSM) was demonstrated to account for speech intelligibility in various conditions with stationary and fluctuating...

  9. Predicting Translation Initiation Rates for Designing Synthetic Biology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reeve, Benjamin; Hargest, Thomas; Gilbert, Charlie; Ellis, Tom

    2014-01-01

    In synthetic biology, precise control over protein expression is required in order to construct functional biological systems. A core principle of the synthetic biology approach is a model-guided design and based on the biological understanding of the process, models of prokaryotic protein production have been described. Translation initiation rate is a rate-limiting step in protein production from mRNA and is dependent on the sequence of the 5′-untranslated region and the start of the coding sequence. Translation rate calculators are programs that estimate protein translation rates based on the sequence of these regions of an mRNA, and as protein expression is proportional to the rate of translation initiation, such calculators have been shown to give good approximations of protein expression levels. In this review, three currently available translation rate calculators developed for synthetic biology are considered, with limitations and possible future progress discussed.

  10. Protein 8-class secondary structure prediction using conditional neural fields.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Zhiyong; Zhao, Feng; Peng, Jian; Xu, Jinbo

    2011-10-01

    Compared with the protein 3-class secondary structure (SS) prediction, the 8-class prediction gains less attention and is also much more challenging, especially for proteins with few sequence homologs. This paper presents a new probabilistic method for 8-class SS prediction using conditional neural fields (CNFs), a recently invented probabilistic graphical model. This CNF method not only models the complex relationship between sequence features and SS, but also exploits the interdependency among SS types of adjacent residues. In addition to sequence profiles, our method also makes use of non-evolutionary information for SS prediction. Tested on the CB513 and RS126 data sets, our method achieves Q8 accuracy of 64.9 and 64.7%, respectively, which are much better than the SSpro8 web server (51.0 and 48.0%, respectively). Our method can also be used to predict other structure properties (e.g. solvent accessibility) of a protein or the SS of RNA. Copyright © 2011 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  11. The halo bispectrum in N-body simulations with non-Gaussian initial conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sefusatti, E.; Crocce, M.; Desjacques, V.

    2012-10-01

    We present measurements of the bispectrum of dark matter haloes in numerical simulations with non-Gaussian initial conditions of local type. We show, in the first place, that the overall effect of primordial non-Gaussianity on the halo bispectrum is larger than on the halo power spectrum when all measurable configurations are taken into account. We then compare our measurements with a tree-level perturbative prediction, finding good agreement at large scales when the constant Gaussian bias parameter, both linear and quadratic, and their constant non-Gaussian corrections are fitted for. The best-fitting values of the Gaussian bias factors and their non-Gaussian, scale-independent corrections are in qualitative agreement with the peak-background split expectations. In particular, we show that the effect of non-Gaussian initial conditions on squeezed configurations is fairly large (up to 30 per cent for fNL = 100 at redshift z = 0.5) and results from contributions of similar amplitude induced by the initial matter bispectrum, scale-dependent bias corrections as well as from non-linear matter bispectrum corrections. We show, in addition, that effects at second order in fNL are irrelevant for the range of values allowed by cosmic microwave background and galaxy power spectrum measurements, at least on the scales probed by our simulations (k > 0.01 h Mpc-1). Finally, we present a Fisher matrix analysis to assess the possibility of constraining primordial non-Gaussianity with future measurements of the galaxy bispectrum. We find that a survey with a volume of about 10 h-3 Gpc3 at mean redshift z ≃ 1 could provide an error on fNL of the order of a few. This shows the relevance of a joint analysis of galaxy power spectrum and bispectrum in future redshift surveys.

  12. USING CONDITION MONITORING TO PREDICT REMAINING LIFE OF ELECTRIC CABLES

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    LOFARO, R.; SOO, P.; VILLARAN, M.; GROVE, E.

    2001-01-01

    Electric cables are passive components used extensively throughout nuclear power stations to perform numerous safety and non-safety functions. It is known that the polymers commonly used to insulate the conductors on these cables can degrade with time; the rate of degradation being dependent on the severity of the conditions in which the cables operate. Cables do not receive routine maintenance and, since it can be very costly, they are not replaced on a regular basis. Therefore, to ensure their continued functional performance, it would be beneficial if condition monitoring techniques could be used to estimate the remaining useful life of these components. A great deal of research has been performed on various condition monitoring techniques for use on electric cables. In a research program sponsored by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, several promising techniques were evaluated and found to provide trendable information on the condition of low-voltage electric cables. These techniques may be useful for predicting remaining life if well defined limiting values for the aging properties being measured can be determined. However, each technique has advantages and limitations that must be addressed in order to use it effectively, and the necessary limiting values are not always easy to obtain. This paper discusses how condition monitoring measurements can be used to predict the remaining useful life of electric cables. The attributes of an appropriate condition monitoring technique are presented, and the process to be used in estimating the remaining useful life of a cable is discussed along with the difficulties that must be addressed

  13. Receptivity to alcohol marketing predicts initiation of alcohol use.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henriksen, Lisa; Feighery, Ellen C; Schleicher, Nina C; Fortmann, Stephen P

    2008-01-01

    This longitudinal study examined the influence of alcohol advertising and promotions on the initiation of alcohol use. A measure of receptivity to alcohol marketing was developed from research about tobacco marketing. Recall and recognition of alcohol brand names were also examined. Data were obtained from in-class surveys of sixth, seventh, and eighth graders at baseline and 12-month follow-up. Participants who were classified as never drinkers at baseline (n = 1,080) comprised the analysis sample. Logistic regression models examined the association of advertising receptivity at baseline with any alcohol use and current drinking at follow-up, adjusting for multiple risk factors, including peer alcohol use, school performance, risk taking, and demographics. At baseline, 29% of never drinkers either owned or wanted to use an alcohol branded promotional item (high receptivity), 12% students named the brand of their favorite alcohol ad (moderate receptivity), and 59% were not receptive to alcohol marketing. Approximately 29% of adolescents reported any alcohol use at follow-up; 13% reported drinking at least 1 or 2 days in the past month. Never drinkers who reported high receptivity to alcohol marketing at baseline were 77% more likely to initiate drinking by follow-up than those were not receptive. Smaller increases in the odds of alcohol use at follow-up were associated with better recall and recognition of alcohol brand names at baseline. Alcohol advertising and promotions are associated with the uptake of drinking. Prevention programs may reduce adolescents' receptivity to alcohol marketing by limiting their exposure to alcohol ads and promotions and by increasing their skepticism about the sponsors' marketing tactics.

  14. CONDOP: an R package for CONdition-Dependent Operon Predictions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fortino, Vittorio; Tagliaferri, Roberto; Greco, Dario

    2016-10-15

    The use of high-throughput RNA sequencing to predict dynamic operon structures in prokaryotic genomes has recently gained popularity in bioinformatics. We provide the R implementation of a novel method that uses transcriptomic features extracted from RNA-seq transcriptome profiles to develop ensemble classifiers for condition-dependent operon predictions. The CONDOP package provides a deeper insight into RNA-seq data analysis and allows scientists to highlight the operon organization in the context of transcriptional regulation with a few lines of code. CONDOP is implemented in R and is freely available at CRAN. vittorio.fortino@helsinki.fiSupplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  15. Predicting Schedule Duration for Defense Acquisition Programs: Program Initiation to Initial Operational Capability

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-03-24

    statistically significant. Variance inflation is a consequence of multicollinearity and the VIF scores are a common way for detecting 43 such a...produced an initial model and we have ascertained there are no issues (and tested that) with respect to multicollinearity (VIF scores), influential...The analysis of this tells us that there is no consequence of multicollinearity present in the preliminary model. By this, there is no linear

  16. Height distribution tails in the Kardar-Parisi-Zhang equation with Brownian initial conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meerson, Baruch; Schmidt, Johannes

    2017-10-01

    For stationary interface growth, governed by the Kardar-Parisi-Zhang (KPZ) equation in 1 + 1 dimensions, typical fluctuations of the interface height at long times are described by the Baik-Rains distribution. Recently Chhita et al (2016 arXiv:1611.06690) used the totally asymmetric simple exclusion process (TASEP) to study the height fluctuations in systems of the KPZ universality class for Brownian interfaces with arbitrary diffusion constant. They showed that there is a one-parameter family of long-time distributions, parameterized by the diffusion constant of the initial random height profile. They also computed these distributions numerically by using Monte Carlo (MC) simulations. Here we address this problem analytically and focus on the distribution tails at short times. We determine the (stretched exponential) tails of the height distribution by applying the optimal fluctuation method (OFM) to the KPZ equation. We argue that, by analogy with other initial conditions, the ‘slow’ tail holds at arbitrary times and therefore provides a proper asymptotic to the family of long-time distributions studied in Chhita et al (2016 arXiv:1611.06690). We verify this hypothesis by performing large-scale MC simulations of a TASEP with a parallel-update rule. The ‘fast’ tail, predicted by the OFM, is also expected to hold at arbitrary times, at sufficiently large heights.

  17. STAR FORMATION AT VERY LOW METALLICITY. V. THE GREATER IMPORTANCE OF INITIAL CONDITIONS COMPARED TO METALLICITY THRESHOLDS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jappsen, Anne-Katharina; Low, Mordecai-Mark Mac; Glover, Simon C. O.; Klessen, Ralf S.; Kitsionas, Spyridon

    2009-01-01

    The formation of the first stars out of metal-free gas appears to result in stars at least an order of magnitude more massive than in the present-day case. We here consider what controls the transition from a primordial to a modern initial mass function. It has been proposed that this occurs when effective metal line cooling occurs at a metallicity threshold of Z/Z sun > 10 -3.5 . We study the influence of low levels of metal enrichment on the cooling and collapse of initially ionized gas in small protogalactic halos using three-dimensional, smoothed particle hydrodynamics simulations with particle splitting. Our initial conditions represent protogalaxies forming within a previously ionized H II region that has not yet had time to cool and recombine. These differ considerably from those used in simulations predicting a metallicity threshold, where the gas was initially cold and only partially ionized. In the centrally condensed potential that we study here, a wide variety of initial conditions for the gas yields a monolithic central collapse. Our models show no fragmentation during collapse to number densities as high as 10 5 cm -3 , for metallicities reaching as high as 10 -1 Z sun , far above the threshold suggested by previous work. Rotation allows for the formation of gravitationally stable gas disks over large fractions of the local Hubble time. Turbulence slows the growth of the central density slightly, but both spherically symmetric and turbulent initial conditions collapse and form a single sink particle. We therefore argue that fragmentation at moderate density depends on the initial conditions for star formation more than on the metal abundances present. The actual initial conditions to be considered still need to be determined in detail by observation and modeling of galaxy formation. Metal abundance may still drive fragmentation at very high densities due to dust cooling, perhaps giving an alternative metallicity threshold.

  18. Robust Initial Wetness Condition Framework of an Event-Based Rainfall–Runoff Model Using Remotely Sensed Soil Moisture

    OpenAIRE

    Wooyeon Sunwoo; Minha Choi

    2017-01-01

    Runoff prediction in limited-data areas is vital for hydrological applications, such as the design of infrastructure and flood defenses, runoff forecasting, and water management. Rainfall–runoff models may be useful for simulation of runoff generation, particularly event-based models, which offer a practical modeling scheme because of their simplicity. However, there is a need to reduce the uncertainties related to the estimation of the initial wetness condition (IWC) prior to a rainfall even...

  19. Visual Bias Predicts Gait Adaptability in Novel Sensory Discordant Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brady, Rachel A.; Batson, Crystal D.; Peters, Brian T.; Mulavara, Ajitkumar P.; Bloomberg, Jacob J.

    2010-01-01

    We designed a gait training study that presented combinations of visual flow and support-surface manipulations to investigate the response of healthy adults to novel discordant sensorimotor conditions. We aimed to determine whether a relationship existed between subjects visual dependence and their postural stability and cognitive performance in a new discordant environment presented at the conclusion of training (Transfer Test). Our training system comprised a treadmill placed on a motion base facing a virtual visual scene that provided a variety of sensory challenges. Ten healthy adults completed 3 training sessions during which they walked on a treadmill at 1.1 m/s while receiving discordant support-surface and visual manipulations. At the first visit, in an analysis of normalized torso translation measured in a scene-movement-only condition, 3 of 10 subjects were classified as visually dependent. During the Transfer Test, all participants received a 2-minute novel exposure. In a combined measure of stride frequency and reaction time, the non-visually dependent subjects showed improved adaptation on the Transfer Test compared to their visually dependent counterparts. This finding suggests that individual differences in the ability to adapt to new sensorimotor conditions may be explained by individuals innate sensory biases. An accurate preflight assessment of crewmembers biases for visual dependence could be used to predict their propensities to adapt to novel sensory conditions. It may also facilitate the development of customized training regimens that could expedite adaptation to alternate gravitational environments.

  20. Using a hybrid model to predict solute transfer from initially saturated soil into surface runoff with controlled drainage water.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tong, Juxiu; Hu, Bill X; Yang, Jinzhong; Zhu, Yan

    2016-06-01

    The mixing layer theory is not suitable for predicting solute transfer from initially saturated soil to surface runoff water under controlled drainage conditions. By coupling the mixing layer theory model with the numerical model Hydrus-1D, a hybrid solute transfer model has been proposed to predict soil solute transfer from an initially saturated soil into surface water, under controlled drainage water conditions. The model can also consider the increasing ponding water conditions on soil surface before surface runoff. The data of solute concentration in surface runoff and drainage water from a sand experiment is used as the reference experiment. The parameters for the water flow and solute transfer model and mixing layer depth under controlled drainage water condition are identified. Based on these identified parameters, the model is applied to another initially saturated sand experiment with constant and time-increasing mixing layer depth after surface runoff, under the controlled drainage water condition with lower drainage height at the bottom. The simulation results agree well with the observed data. Study results suggest that the hybrid model can accurately simulate the solute transfer from initially saturated soil into surface runoff under controlled drainage water condition. And it has been found that the prediction with increasing mixing layer depth is better than that with the constant one in the experiment with lower drainage condition. Since lower drainage condition and deeper ponded water depth result in later runoff start time, more solute sources in the mixing layer are needed for the surface water, and larger change rate results in the increasing mixing layer depth.

  1. Predicting thermal reference conditions for USA streams and rivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Ryan A.; Hawkins, Charles P.; Carlisle, Daren M.

    2013-01-01

    Temperature is a primary driver of the structure and function of stream ecosystems. However, the lack of stream temperature (ST) data for the vast majority of streams and rivers severely compromises our ability to describe patterns of thermal variation among streams, test hypotheses regarding the effects of temperature on macroecological patterns, and assess the effects of altered STs on ecological resources. Our goal was to develop empirical models that could: 1) quantify the effects of stream and watershed alteration (SWA) on STs, and 2) accurately and precisely predict natural (i.e., reference condition) STs in conterminous USA streams and rivers. We modeled 3 ecologically important elements of the thermal regime: mean summer, mean winter, and mean annual ST. To build reference-condition models (RCMs), we used daily mean ST data obtained from several thousand US Geological Survey temperature sites distributed across the conterminous USA and iteratively modeled ST with Random Forests to identify sites in reference condition. We first created a set of dirty models (DMs) that related STs to both natural factors (e.g., climate, watershed area, topography) and measures of SWA, i.e., reservoirs, urbanization, and agriculture. The 3 models performed well (r2 = 0.84–0.94, residual mean square error [RMSE] = 1.2–2.0°C). For each DM, we used partial dependence plots to identify SWA thresholds below which response in ST was minimal. We then used data from only the sites with upstream SWA below these thresholds to build RCMs with only natural factors as predictors (r2 = 0.87–0.95, RMSE = 1.1–1.9°C). Use of only reference-quality sites caused RCMs to suffer modest loss of predictor space and spatial coverage, but this loss was associated with parts of ST response curves that were flat and, therefore, not responsive to further variation in predictor space. We then compared predictions made with the RCMs to predictions made with the DMs with SWA set to 0. For most

  2. Conditioned pain modulation predicts duloxetine efficacy in painful diabetic neuropathy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yarnitsky, David; Granot, Michal; Nahman-Averbuch, Hadas; Khamaisi, Mogher; Granovsky, Yelena

    2012-06-01

    This study aims to individualize the selection of drugs for neuropathic pain by examining the potential coupling of a given drug's mechanism of action with the patient's pain modulation pattern. The latter is assessed by the conditioned pain modulation (CPM) and temporal summation (TS) protocols. We hypothesized that patients with a malfunctioning pain modulation pattern, such as less efficient CPM, would benefit more from drugs augmenting descending inhibitory pain control than would patients with a normal modulation pattern of efficient CPM. Thirty patients with painful diabetic neuropathy received 1 week of placebo, 1 week of 30 mg/d duloxetine, and 4 weeks of 60 mg/d duloxetine. Pain modulation was assessed psychophysically, both before and at the end of treatment. Patient assessment of drug efficacy, assessed weekly, was the study's primary outcome. Baseline CPM was found to be correlated with duloxetine efficacy (r=0.628, P<.001, efficient CPM is marked negative), such that less efficient CPM predicted efficacious use of duloxetine. Regression analysis (R(2)=0.673; P=.012) showed that drug efficacy was predicted only by CPM (P=.001) and not by pretreatment pain levels, neuropathy severity, depression level, or patient assessment of improvement by placebo. Furthermore, beyond its predictive value, the treatment-induced improvement in CPM was correlated with drug efficacy (r=-0.411, P=.033). However, this improvement occurred only in patients with less efficient CPM (16.8±16.0 to -1.1±15.5, P<.050). No predictive role was found for TS. In conclusion, the coupling of CPM and duloxetine efficacy highlights the importance of pain pathophysiology in the clinical decision-making process. This evaluative approach promotes personalized pain therapy. Copyright © 2012 International Association for the Study of Pain. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Determination of Initial Conditions for the Safety Analysis by Random Sampling of Operating Parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jeong, Hae-Yong; Park, Moon-Ghu

    2015-01-01

    In most existing evaluation methodologies, which follow a conservative approach, the most conservative initial conditions are searched for each transient scenario through tremendous assessment for wide operating windows or limiting conditions for operation (LCO) allowed by the operating guidelines. In this procedure, a user effect could be involved and a remarkable time and human resources are consumed. In the present study, we investigated a more effective statistical method for the selection of the most conservative initial condition by the use of random sampling of operating parameters affecting the initial conditions. A method for the determination of initial conditions based on random sampling of plant design parameters is proposed. This method is expected to be applied for the selection of the most conservative initial plant conditions in the safety analysis using a conservative evaluation methodology. In the method, it is suggested that the initial conditions of reactor coolant flow rate, pressurizer level, pressurizer pressure, and SG level are adjusted by controlling the pump rated flow, setpoints of PLCS, PPCS, and FWCS, respectively. The proposed technique is expected to contribute to eliminate the human factors introduced in the conventional safety analysis procedure and also to reduce the human resources invested in the safety evaluation of nuclear power plants

  4. Gravity with free initial conditions: A solution to the cosmological constant problem testable by CMB B -mode polarization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Totani, Tomonori

    2017-10-01

    In standard general relativity the universe cannot be started with arbitrary initial conditions, because four of the ten components of the Einstein's field equations (EFE) are constraints on initial conditions. In the previous work it was proposed to extend the gravity theory to allow free initial conditions, with a motivation to solve the cosmological constant problem. This was done by setting four constraints on metric variations in the action principle, which is reasonable because the gravity's physical degrees of freedom are at most six. However, there are two problems about this theory; the three constraints in addition to the unimodular condition were introduced without clear physical meanings, and the flat Minkowski spacetime is unstable against perturbations. Here a new set of gravitational field equations is derived by replacing the three constraints with new ones requiring that geodesic paths remain geodesic against metric variations. The instability problem is then naturally solved. Implications for the cosmological constant Λ are unchanged; the theory converges into EFE with nonzero Λ by inflation, but Λ varies on scales much larger than the present Hubble horizon. Then galaxies are formed only in small Λ regions, and the cosmological constant problem is solved by the anthropic argument. Because of the increased degrees of freedom in metric dynamics, the theory predicts new non-oscillatory modes of metric anisotropy generated by quantum fluctuation during inflation, and CMB B -mode polarization would be observed differently from the standard predictions by general relativity.

  5. Multi-model assessment of the impact of soil moisture initialization on mid-latitude summer predictability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ardilouze, Constantin; Batté, L.; Bunzel, F.; Decremer, D.; Déqué, M.; Doblas-Reyes, F. J.; Douville, H.; Fereday, D.; Guemas, V.; MacLachlan, C.; Müller, W.; Prodhomme, C.

    2017-12-01

    Land surface initial conditions have been recognized as a potential source of predictability in sub-seasonal to seasonal forecast systems, at least for near-surface air temperature prediction over the mid-latitude continents. Yet, few studies have systematically explored such an influence over a sufficient hindcast period and in a multi-model framework to produce a robust quantitative assessment. Here, a dedicated set of twin experiments has been carried out with boreal summer retrospective forecasts over the 1992-2010 period performed by five different global coupled ocean-atmosphere models. The impact of a realistic versus climatological soil moisture initialization is assessed in two regions with high potential previously identified as hotspots of land-atmosphere coupling, namely the North American Great Plains and South-Eastern Europe. Over the latter region, temperature predictions show a significant improvement, especially over the Balkans. Forecast systems better simulate the warmest summers if they follow pronounced dry initial anomalies. It is hypothesized that models manage to capture a positive feedback between high temperature and low soil moisture content prone to dominate over other processes during the warmest summers in this region. Over the Great Plains, however, improving the soil moisture initialization does not lead to any robust gain of forecast quality for near-surface temperature. It is suggested that models biases prevent the forecast systems from making the most of the improved initial conditions.

  6. On the initial condition problem of the time domain PMCHWT surface integral equation

    KAUST Repository

    Uysal, Ismail Enes; Bagci, Hakan; Ergin, A. Arif; Ulku, H. Arda

    2017-01-01

    Non-physical, linearly increasing and constant current components are induced in marching on-in-time solution of time domain surface integral equations when initial conditions on time derivatives of (unknown) equivalent currents are not enforced

  7. Unsaturated Zone Effects in Predicting Landslide and Debris-Flow Initiation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baum, R. L.; Godt, J. W.; Savage, W. Z.

    2006-12-01

    Many destructive debris flows begin as shallow landslides induced by direct infiltration of intense rainfall and storm runoff into hillside materials. Predicting the timing and location of debris-flow initiation is needed to assess the debris-flow hazard of an area. Theoretical models and real-time monitoring of rainfall infiltration into unsaturated hillside materials provide useful insights into the mechanisms and timing of rainfall-induced landslides. We modeled the infiltration process using a two-layer system that consists of an unsaturated zone above a saturated zone, and then implemented this model in a GIS framework. The model couples analytical solutions for transient, unsaturated, vertical infiltration above the water table to pressure-diffusion solutions for pressure changes below the water table. The solutions are coupled through a transient water table that rises as water accumulates at the base of the unsaturated zone. This scheme, though limited to simplified soil- water characteristics and moist initial conditions, greatly improves computational efficiency over numerical models in spatially distributed modeling applications. Pore pressures computed by these coupled models are subsequently used in slope-stability computations to estimate the timing and locations of slope failures. Preliminary model results indicate that the unsaturated layer attenuates and delays the rainfall-induced pore- pressure response at depth, consistent with observations at an instrumented hillside near Edmonds, Washington. This attenuation reduces the area of false-positive predictions (when compared with results of linear models for suction-saturated initial conditions) in distributed application of the model over an area. Modeling indicates that initial wetness of the hillside materials affects the intensity and duration of rainfall required to trigger shallow landslides and consequently the timing of their occurrence, a result that is also consistent with observations of

  8. Effects of the initial conditions on cosmological $N$-body simulations

    OpenAIRE

    L'Huillier, Benjamin; Park, Changbom; Kim, Juhan

    2014-01-01

    Cosmology is entering an era of percent level precision due to current large observational surveys. This precision in observation is now demanding more accuracy from numerical methods and cosmological simulations. In this paper, we study the accuracy of $N$-body numerical simulations and their dependence on changes in the initial conditions and in the simulation algorithms. For this purpose, we use a series of cosmological $N$-body simulations with varying initial conditions. We test the infl...

  9. The Use of Graphs in Specific Situations of the Initial Conditions of Linear Differential Equations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buendía, Gabriela; Cordero, Francisco

    2013-01-01

    In this article, we present a discussion on the role of graphs and its significance in the relation between the number of initial conditions and the order of a linear differential equation, which is known as the initial value problem. We propose to make a functional framework for the use of graphs that intends to broaden the explanations of the…

  10. Full-field initialized decadal predictions with the MPI earth system model: an initial shock in the North Atlantic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kröger, Jürgen; Pohlmann, Holger; Sienz, Frank; Marotzke, Jochem; Baehr, Johanna; Köhl, Armin; Modali, Kameswarrao; Polkova, Iuliia; Stammer, Detlef; Vamborg, Freja S. E.; Müller, Wolfgang A.

    2017-12-01

    Our decadal climate prediction system, which is based on the Max-Planck-Institute Earth System Model, is initialized from a coupled assimilation run that utilizes nudging to selected state parameters from reanalyses. We apply full-field nudging in the atmosphere and either full-field or anomaly nudging in the ocean. Full fields from two different ocean reanalyses are considered. This comparison of initialization strategies focuses on the North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre (SPG) region, where the transition from anomaly to full-field nudging reveals large differences in prediction skill for sea surface temperature and ocean heat content (OHC). We show that nudging of temperature and salinity in the ocean modifies OHC and also induces changes in mass and heat transports associated with the ocean flow. In the SPG region, the assimilated OHC signal resembles well OHC from observations, regardless of using full fields or anomalies. The resulting ocean transport, on the other hand, reveals considerable differences between full-field and anomaly nudging. In all assimilation runs, ocean heat transport together with net heat exchange at the surface does not correspond to OHC tendencies, the SPG heat budget is not closed. Discrepancies in the budget in the cases of full-field nudging exceed those in the case of anomaly nudging by a factor of 2-3. The nudging-induced changes in ocean transport continue to be present in the free running hindcasts for up to 5 years, a clear expression of memory in our coupled system. In hindcast mode, on annual to inter-annual scales, ocean heat transport is the dominant driver of SPG OHC. Thus, we ascribe a significant reduction in OHC prediction skill when using full-field instead of anomaly initialization to an initialization shock resulting from the poor initialization of the ocean flow.

  11. Predicting initial client engagement with community mental health services by routinely measured data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roeg, D.P.K.; van de Goor, L.A.M.; Garretsen, H.F.L.

    2015-01-01

    Engagement is a determinant of how well a person will respond to professional input. This study investigates whether, in practice, routinely measured data predict initial client engagement with community mental health services. Engagement, problem severity, client characteristics, and duration

  12. Maximum run-up behavior of tsunamis under non-zero initial velocity condition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Baran AYDIN

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The tsunami run-up problem is solved non-linearly under the most general initial conditions, that is, for realistic initial waveforms such as N-waves, as well as standard initial waveforms such as solitary waves, in the presence of initial velocity. An initial-boundary value problem governed by the non-linear shallow-water wave equations is solved analytically utilizing the classical separation of variables technique, which proved to be not only fast but also accurate analytical approach for this type of problems. The results provide important information on maximum tsunami run-up qualitatively. We observed that, although the calculated maximum run-ups increase significantly, going as high as double that of the zero-velocity case, initial waves having non-zero fluid velocity exhibit the same run-up behavior as waves without initial velocity, for all wave types considered in this study.

  13. Prediction of Cyclists Movement in Different Terrain Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A/L V.Nagarrettinam Mahesh

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available In Malaysia, most of the accidents involving a bicycle and another vehicle are due to either the driver or rider ‘failing to look properly’. This is more significant with the government initiatives to support the use of bicycle making the carbon-free environment, a vision of TN50. This research addresses the safety aspect of the cyclists in terms of the driver’s point of view which improves cyclist visibility during driving. The proposed helmet system implements a rule-based algorithm which predicts the turning and braking movement of the cyclists. With this system, additional illumination and signaling are provided for the cyclists. The major challenge faced is the implementation of an algorithm for various situations of cycling. To ensure the system could be used on the road, the accuracy and speed of the automatic signaling system need to adhere. Situations that affects the output of the indicators include bicycle speed, the angle of turning, body tilt, duration of turn and random body movements. This paper implements a 3-axis accelerometer and a microcontroller in a data logger to acquire the required data which are analyzed in MATLAB. Using filtering technique, the acquired data are then be cleaned to remove noise due to vibration during cycling. The characteristics of braking and turning are then analyzed in the time domain as well as frequency domain to ensure the optimum algorithm used for gesture recognition and movement prediction. The algorithm is based on sliding window, FFT and threshold-based rule algorithm. The output based on the rule-based algorithm then illuminate the corresponding signals which provide the safety feature of the system.

  14. A new model for predicting performance of fin-and-tube heat exchanger under frost condition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cui, J.; Li, W.Z.; Liu, Y.; Zhao, Y.S.

    2011-01-01

    Accurate prediction of frost characteristics has crucial influence on designing effective heat exchangers. In this paper, a new CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) model has been proposed to predict the frost behaviour. The initial period of frost formation can be predicted and the influence of surface structure can be considered. The numerical simulations have been carried out to investigate the performance of fin-and-tube heat exchanger under frost condition. The results have been validated by comparison of simulations with the data computed by empirical formulas. The transient local frost formation has been obtained. The average frost thickness, heat exchanger coefficient and pressure drop on air side has been analysed as well. In addition, the influence factors have also been discussed, such as fin pitch, relative humidity, air flow rate and evaporating temperature of refrigerant.

  15. Predicting the initial freezing point and water activity of meat products from composition data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sman, van der R.G.M.; Boer, E.P.J.

    2005-01-01

    In this paper we predict the water activity and initial freezing point of food products (meat and fish) based on their composition. The prediction is based on thermodynamics (the Clausius-Clapeyron equation, the Ross equation and an approximation of the Pitzer equation). Furthermore, we have taken

  16. THE ANALYSIS OF THE COMMODITY PRICE FORECASTING SUCCESS CONSIDERING DIFFERENT LENGTHS OF THE INITIAL CONDITION DRIFT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcela Lascsáková

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available In the paper the numerical model based on the exponential approximation of commodity stock exchanges was derived. The price prognoses of aluminium on the London Metal Exchange were determined as numerical solution of the Cauchy initial problem for the 1st order ordinary differential equation. To make the numerical model more accurate the idea of the modification of the initial condition value by the stock exchange was realized. By having analyzed the forecasting success of the chosen initial condition drift types, the initial condition drift providing the most accurate prognoses for the commodity price movements was determined. The suggested modification of the original model made the commodity price prognoses more accurate.

  17. Optimal control of distributed parameter system with incomplete information about the initial condition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kotarski, W.; Kowalewski, A.

    1982-03-01

    In this paper we consider an optimal control problem for a system described by a linear partial differential equation of the parabolic type with Dirichlet's boundary condition. We impose some constraints on the control. The performance functional has the integral form. The control time T is fixed. The initial condition is not given by a known function but belongs to a certain set (incomplete information about the initial state). The problem formulated in this paper describes the process of optimal heating, of which we do not have exact information about the initial temperature on the heated object. We present an example in which the set of admissible controls and one of initial conditions are given by means of the norm constraints too. The application of the well-known projective gradient method in the Hilbert space allows us to obtain the numerical solution for our optimization problem. (author)

  18. Predicting Comfort Temperature in Indonesia, an Initial Step to Reduce Cooling Energy Consumption

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tri Harso Karyono

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Indonesia has no reliable thermal comfort standard that is based on research works. The current national standard (SNI 6390:2011 states only a single range of comfort temperature that is 25.5 °C Ta, with a range of +1.5 °C Ta. Previous thermal studies in a number of different buildings in Indonesia showed that the neutral (comfort temperatures of subjects were about 27 to 28 °C, which is higher than the values stated in the standard. As a big country with various ambient temperatures, Indonesian needs a better and more reliable thermal comfort predictor which can be applied properly across the country. This study is an attempt to propose an initial Indonesian thermal predictor, in the form of a simple equation, which could predict comfort temperatures properly across the country. Reanalysing the previous comfort studies in Indonesia, a simple regression equation is constructed as to be used as the initial Indonesian comfort predictor. Using this predictor, the comfort temperatures in a lowland or coastal cities like Jakarta is found to be higher than the current comfort standard. It is expected that this predictor would help to provide a better indoor thermal environment and at the same reduce the cooling energy in air conditioning (AC building, thus reducing a building’s carbon emissions.

  19. Sensitivity of decadal predictions to the initial atmospheric and oceanic perturbations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Du, H.; Garcia-Serrano, J.; Guemas, V.; Soufflet, Y. [Institut Catala de Ciencies del Clima (IC3), Barcelona (Spain); Doblas-Reyes, F.J. [Institut Catala de Ciencies del Clima (IC3), Barcelona (Spain); Institucio Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avancats (ICREA), Barcelona (Spain); Wouters, B. [Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt (Netherlands)

    2012-10-15

    A coupled global atmosphere-ocean model is employed to investigate the impact of initial perturbation methods on the behaviour of five-member ensemble decadal re-forecasts. Three initial-condition perturbation strategies, atmosphere only, ocean only and atmosphere-ocean, have been used and the impact on selected variables have been investigated. The impact has been assessed in terms of climate drift, forecast quality and spread. The simulated global means of near-surface air temperature (T2M), sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice area (SIA) for both Arctic and Antarctic show reasonably good quality, in spite of the non-negligible drift of the model. The skill in terms of correlation is not significantly affected by the particular perturbation method employed. The ensemble spread generated for T2M, SST and land surface precipitation (PCP) saturates quickly with any of the perturbation methods. However, for SIA, Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and ocean heat content (OHC), the spread increases substantially during the forecast time when ocean perturbations are applied. Ocean perturbations are particularly important for Antarctic SIA and OHC for the middle and deep layers of the ocean. The results will be helpful in the design of ensemble prediction experiments. (orig.)

  20. Consistent initial conditions for the Saint-Venant equations in river network modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C.-W. Yu

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Initial conditions for flows and depths (cross-sectional areas throughout a river network are required for any time-marching (unsteady solution of the one-dimensional (1-D hydrodynamic Saint-Venant equations. For a river network modeled with several Strahler orders of tributaries, comprehensive and consistent synoptic data are typically lacking and synthetic starting conditions are needed. Because of underlying nonlinearity, poorly defined or inconsistent initial conditions can lead to convergence problems and long spin-up times in an unsteady solver. Two new approaches are defined and demonstrated herein for computing flows and cross-sectional areas (or depths. These methods can produce an initial condition data set that is consistent with modeled landscape runoff and river geometry boundary conditions at the initial time. These new methods are (1 the pseudo time-marching method (PTM that iterates toward a steady-state initial condition using an unsteady Saint-Venant solver and (2 the steady-solution method (SSM that makes use of graph theory for initial flow rates and solution of a steady-state 1-D momentum equation for the channel cross-sectional areas. The PTM is shown to be adequate for short river reaches but is significantly slower and has occasional non-convergent behavior for large river networks. The SSM approach is shown to provide a rapid solution of consistent initial conditions for both small and large networks, albeit with the requirement that additional code must be written rather than applying an existing unsteady Saint-Venant solver.

  1. Prediction model for initial point of net vapor generation for low-flow boiling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sun Qi; Zhao Hua; Yang Ruichang

    2003-01-01

    The prediction of the initial point of net vapor generation is significant for the calculation of phase distribution in sub-cooled boiling. However, most of the investigations were developed in high-flow boiling, and there is no common model that could be successfully applied for the low-flow boiling. A predictive model for the initial point of net vapor generation for low-flow forced convection and natural circulation is established here, by the analysis of evaporation and condensation heat transfer. The comparison between experimental data and calculated results shows that this model can predict the net vapor generation point successfully in low-flow sub-cooled boiling

  2. Online communication predicts Belgian adolescents' initiation of romantic and sexual activity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vandenbosch, Laura; Beyens, Ine; Vangeel, Laurens; Eggermont, Steven

    2016-04-01

    Online communication is associated with offline romantic and sexual activity among college students. Yet, it is unknown whether online communication is associated with the initiation of romantic and sexual activity among adolescents. This two-wave panel study investigated whether chatting, visiting dating websites, and visiting erotic contact websites predicted adolescents' initiation of romantic and sexual activity. We analyzed two-wave panel data from 1163 Belgian adolescents who participated in the MORES Study. We investigated the longitudinal impact of online communication on the initiation of romantic relationships and sexual intercourse using logistic regression analyses. The odds ratios of initiating a romantic relationship among romantically inexperienced adolescents who frequently used chat rooms, dating websites, or erotic contact websites were two to three times larger than those of non-users. Among sexually inexperienced adolescents who frequently used chat rooms, dating websites, or erotic contact websites, the odds ratios of initiating sexual intercourse were two to five times larger than that among non-users, even after a number of other relevant factors were introduced. This is the first study to demonstrate that online communication predicts the initiation of offline sexual and romantic activity as early as adolescence. Practitioners and parents need to consider the role of online communication in adolescents' developing sexuality. • Adolescents increasingly communicate online with peers. • Online communication predicts romantic and sexual activity among college students. What is New: • Online communication predicts adolescents' offline romantic activity over time. • Online communication predicts adolescents' offline sexual activity over time.

  3. Effects of ocean initial perturbation on developing phase of ENSO in a coupled seasonal prediction model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Hyun-Chul; Kumar, Arun; Wang, Wanqiu

    2018-03-01

    Coupled prediction systems for seasonal and inter-annual variability in the tropical Pacific are initialized from ocean analyses. In ocean initial states, small scale perturbations are inevitably smoothed or distorted by the observational limits and data assimilation procedures, which tends to induce potential ocean initial errors for the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) prediction. Here, the evolution and effects of ocean initial errors from the small scale perturbation on the developing phase of ENSO are investigated by an ensemble of coupled model predictions. Results show that the ocean initial errors at the thermocline in the western tropical Pacific grow rapidly to project on the first mode of equatorial Kelvin wave and propagate to the east along the thermocline. In boreal spring when the surface buoyancy flux weakens in the eastern tropical Pacific, the subsurface errors influence sea surface temperature variability and would account for the seasonal dependence of prediction skill in the NINO3 region. It is concluded that the ENSO prediction in the eastern tropical Pacific after boreal spring can be improved by increasing the observational accuracy of subsurface ocean initial states in the western tropical Pacific.

  4. Effect of Initial Hydraulic Conditions on Capillary Rise in a Porous Medium: Pore-Network Modeling

    KAUST Repository

    Joekar-Niasar, V.

    2012-01-01

    The dynamics of capillary rise in a porous medium have been mostly studied in initially dry systems. As initial saturation and initial hydraulic conditions in many natural and industrial porous media can be variable, it is important to investigate the influence of initial conditions on the dynamics of the process. In this study, using dynamic pore-network modeling, we simulated capillary rise in a porous medium for different initial saturations (and consequently initial capillary pressures). Furthermore, the effect of hydraulic connectivity of the wetting phase in corners on the height and velocity of the wetting front was studied. Our simulation results show that there is a trade-off between capillary forces and trapping due to snap-off, which leads to a nonlinear dependence of wetting front velocity on initial saturation at the pore scale. This analysis may provide a possible answer to the experimental observations in the literature showing a non-monotonic dependency between initial saturation and the macroscopic front velocity. © Soil Science Society of America.

  5. Error estimation for CFD aeroheating prediction under rarefied flow condition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Yazhong; Gao, Zhenxun; Jiang, Chongwen; Lee, Chunhian

    2014-12-01

    Both direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) and Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) methods have become widely used for aerodynamic prediction when reentry vehicles experience different flow regimes during flight. The implementation of slip boundary conditions in the traditional CFD method under Navier-Stokes-Fourier (NSF) framework can extend the validity of this approach further into transitional regime, with the benefit that much less computational cost is demanded compared to DSMC simulation. Correspondingly, an increasing error arises in aeroheating calculation as the flow becomes more rarefied. To estimate the relative error of heat flux when applying this method for a rarefied flow in transitional regime, theoretical derivation is conducted and a dimensionless parameter ɛ is proposed by approximately analyzing the ratio of the second order term to first order term in the heat flux expression in Burnett equation. DSMC simulation for hypersonic flow over a cylinder in transitional regime is performed to test the performance of parameter ɛ, compared with two other parameters, Knρ and MaṡKnρ.

  6. Conditional predictive inference for online surveillance of spatial disease incidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corberán-Vallet, Ana; Lawson, Andrew B.

    2012-01-01

    This paper deals with the development of statistical methodology for timely detection of incident disease clusters in space and time. The increasing availability of data on both the time and the location of events enables the construction of multivariate surveillance techniques, which may enhance the ability to detect localized clusters of disease relative to the surveillance of the overall count of disease cases across the entire study region. We introduce the surveillance conditional predictive ordinate as a general Bayesian model-based surveillance technique that allows us to detect small areas of increased disease incidence when spatial data are available. To address the problem of multiple comparisons, we incorporate a common probability that each small area signals an alarm when no change in the risk pattern of disease takes place into the analysis. We investigate the performance of the proposed surveillance technique within the framework of Bayesian hierarchical Poisson models using a simulation study. Finally, we present a case study of salmonellosis in South Carolina. PMID:21898522

  7. Evaluation of strength and failure of brittle rock containing initial cracks under lithospheric conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xiaozhao; Qi, Chengzhi; Shao, Zhushan; Ma, Chao

    2018-02-01

    Natural brittle rock contains numerous randomly distributed microcracks. Crack initiation, growth, and coalescence play a predominant role in evaluation for the strength and failure of brittle rocks. A new analytical method is proposed to predict the strength and failure of brittle rocks containing initial microcracks. The formulation of this method is based on an improved wing crack model and a suggested micro-macro relation. In this improved wing crack model, the parameter of crack angle is especially introduced as a variable, and the analytical stress-crack relation considering crack angle effect is obtained. Coupling the proposed stress-crack relation and the suggested micro-macro relation describing the relation between crack growth and axial strain, the stress-strain constitutive relation is obtained to predict the rock strength and failure. Considering different initial microcrack sizes, friction coefficients and confining pressures, effects of crack angle on tensile wedge force acting on initial crack interface are studied, and effects of crack angle on stress-strain constitutive relation of rocks are also analyzed. The strength and crack initiation stress under different crack angles are discussed, and the value of most disadvantaged angle triggering crack initiation and rock failure is founded. The analytical results are similar to the published study results. Rationality of this proposed analytical method is verified.

  8. Elliptic flow from non-equilibrium initial condition with a saturation scale

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ruggieri, M.; Scardina, F.; Plumari, S.; Greco, V.

    2013-01-01

    A current goal of relativistic heavy-ion collisions experiments is the search for a Color Glass Condensate (CGC) as the limiting state of QCD matter at very high density. In viscous hydrodynamics simulations, a standard Glauber initial condition leads to estimate 4πη/s∼1, while employing the Kharzeev–Levin–Nardi (KLN) modeling of the glasma leads to at least a factor of 2 larger η/s. Within a kinetic theory approach based on a relativistic Boltzmann-like transport simulation, our main result is that the out-of-equilibrium initial distribution reduces the efficiency in building-up the elliptic flow. At RHIC energy we find the available data on v 2 are in agreement with a 4πη/s∼1 also for KLN initial conditions. More generally, our study shows that the initial non-equilibrium in p-space can have a significant impact on the build-up of anisotropic flow

  9. Characterization of Initial Parameter Information for Lifetime Prediction of Electronic Devices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Zhigang; Liu, Boying; Yuan, Mengxiong; Zhang, Feifei; Guo, Jiaqiang

    2016-01-01

    Newly manufactured electronic devices are subject to different levels of potential defects existing among the initial parameter information of the devices. In this study, a characterization of electromagnetic relays that were operated at their optimal performance with appropriate and steady parameter values was performed to estimate the levels of their potential defects and to develop a lifetime prediction model. First, the initial parameter information value and stability were quantified to measure the performance of the electronics. In particular, the values of the initial parameter information were estimated using the probability-weighted average method, whereas the stability of the parameter information was determined by using the difference between the extrema and end points of the fitting curves for the initial parameter information. Second, a lifetime prediction model for small-sized samples was proposed on the basis of both measures. Finally, a model for the relationship of the initial contact resistance and stability over the lifetime of the sampled electromagnetic relays was proposed and verified. A comparison of the actual and predicted lifetimes of the relays revealed a 15.4% relative error, indicating that the lifetime of electronic devices can be predicted based on their initial parameter information.

  10. Characterization of Initial Parameter Information for Lifetime Prediction of Electronic Devices.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhigang Li

    Full Text Available Newly manufactured electronic devices are subject to different levels of potential defects existing among the initial parameter information of the devices. In this study, a characterization of electromagnetic relays that were operated at their optimal performance with appropriate and steady parameter values was performed to estimate the levels of their potential defects and to develop a lifetime prediction model. First, the initial parameter information value and stability were quantified to measure the performance of the electronics. In particular, the values of the initial parameter information were estimated using the probability-weighted average method, whereas the stability of the parameter information was determined by using the difference between the extrema and end points of the fitting curves for the initial parameter information. Second, a lifetime prediction model for small-sized samples was proposed on the basis of both measures. Finally, a model for the relationship of the initial contact resistance and stability over the lifetime of the sampled electromagnetic relays was proposed and verified. A comparison of the actual and predicted lifetimes of the relays revealed a 15.4% relative error, indicating that the lifetime of electronic devices can be predicted based on their initial parameter information.

  11. Neuroscience of inhibition for addiction medicine: from prediction of initiation to prediction of relapse.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moeller, Scott J; Bederson, Lucia; Alia-Klein, Nelly; Goldstein, Rita Z

    2016-01-01

    A core deficit in drug addiction is the inability to inhibit maladaptive drug-seeking behavior. Consistent with this deficit, drug-addicted individuals show reliable cross-sectional differences from healthy nonaddicted controls during tasks of response inhibition accompanied by brain activation abnormalities as revealed by functional neuroimaging. However, it is less clear whether inhibition-related deficits predate the transition to problematic use, and, in turn, whether these deficits predict the transition out of problematic substance use. Here, we review longitudinal studies of response inhibition in children/adolescents with little substance experience and longitudinal studies of already addicted individuals attempting to sustain abstinence. Results show that response inhibition and its underlying neural correlates predict both substance use outcomes (onset and abstinence). Neurally, key roles were observed for multiple regions of the frontal cortex (e.g., inferior frontal gyrus, dorsal anterior cingulate cortex, and dorsolateral prefrontal cortex). In general, less activation of these regions during response inhibition predicted not only the onset of substance use, but interestingly also better abstinence-related outcomes among individuals already addicted. The role of subcortical areas, although potentially important, is less clear because of inconsistent results and because these regions are less classically reported in studies of healthy response inhibition. Overall, this review indicates that response inhibition is not simply a manifestation of current drug addiction, but rather a core neurocognitive dimension that predicts key substance use outcomes. Early intervention in inhibitory deficits could have high clinical and public health relevance. © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. 3-D simulations to investigate initial condition effects on the growth of Rayleigh-Taylor mixing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andrews, Malcolm J [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2008-01-01

    The effect of initial conditions on the growth rate of turbulent Rayleigh-Taylor (RT) mixing has been studied using carefully formulated numerical simulations. An integrated large-eddy simulation (ILES) that uses a finite-volume technique was employed to solve the three-dimensional incompressible Euler equations with numerical dissipation. The initial conditions were chosen to test the dependence of the RT growth parameters ({alpha}{sub b}, {alpha}{sub s}) on variations in (a) the spectral bandwidth, (b) the spectral shape, and (c) discrete banded spectra. Our findings support the notion that the overall growth of the RT mixing is strongly dependent on initial conditions. Variation in spectral shapes and bandwidths are found to have a complex effect of the late time development of the RT mixing layer, and raise the question of whether we can design RT transition and turbulence based on our choice of initial conditions. In addition, our results provide a useful database for the initialization and development of closures describing RT transition and turbulence.

  13. Ductile Crack Initiation Criterion with Mismatched Weld Joints Under Dynamic Loading Conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    An, Gyubaek; Jeong, Se-Min; Park, Jeongung

    2018-03-01

    Brittle failure of high toughness steel structures tends to occur after ductile crack initiation/propagation. Damages to steel structures were reported in the Hanshin Great Earthquake. Several brittle failures were observed in beam-to-column connection zones with geometrical discontinuity. It is widely known that triaxial stresses accelerate the ductile fracture of steels. The study examined the effects of geometrical heterogeneity and strength mismatches (both of which elevate plastic constraints due to heterogeneous plastic straining) and loading rate on critical conditions initiating ductile fracture. This involved applying the two-parameter criterion (involving equivalent plastic strain and stress triaxiality) to estimate ductile cracking for strength mismatched specimens under static and dynamic tensile loading conditions. Ductile crack initiation testing was conducted under static and dynamic loading conditions using circumferentially notched specimens (Charpy type) with/without strength mismatches. The results indicated that the condition for ductile crack initiation using the two parameter criterion was a transferable criterion to evaluate ductile crack initiation independent of the existence of strength mismatches and loading rates.

  14. Conditional stability in determination of initial data for stochastic parabolic equations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yuan, Ganghua

    2017-01-01

    In this paper, we solve two kinds of inverse problems in determination of the initial data for stochastic parabolic equations. One is determination of the initial data by lateral boundary observation on arbitrary portion of the boundary, the second one is determination of the initial data by internal observation in a subregion inside the domain. We obtain conditional stability for the two kinds of inverse problems. To prove the results, we estimate the initial data by a terminal observation near the initial time, then we estimate this terminal observation by lateral boundary observation on arbitrary portion of the boundary or internal observation in a subregion inside the domain. To achieve those goals, we derive several new Carleman estimates for stochastic parabolic equations in this paper. (paper)

  15. Conditional stability in determination of initial data for stochastic parabolic equations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Ganghua

    2017-03-01

    In this paper, we solve two kinds of inverse problems in determination of the initial data for stochastic parabolic equations. One is determination of the initial data by lateral boundary observation on arbitrary portion of the boundary, the second one is determination of the initial data by internal observation in a subregion inside the domain. We obtain conditional stability for the two kinds of inverse problems. To prove the results, we estimate the initial data by a terminal observation near the initial time, then we estimate this terminal observation by lateral boundary observation on arbitrary portion of the boundary or internal observation in a subregion inside the domain. To achieve those goals, we derive several new Carleman estimates for stochastic parabolic equations in this paper.

  16. On the initial conditions for a universe with variable G and c

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gomide, F.M.; Uehara, M.

    1978-01-01

    Initial conditions are discussed for a closed universe with matter injection process and with time varying G and c. It is shown that the usual interpretation for the cosmic microwave background radiation can be accepted for this model universe, provided a certain initial condition is imposed on the Pryce-Hoyle field. The time varying c is responsible for two red-shift laws one for wave-length and the other for the frequency. If radiation temperature obeys the red-shift law for frequency, the primordial Planck spectrum can be reproduced along cosmic expansion [pt

  17. Effect of initial conditions and Mach number on the Richtmyer-Meshkov instability in ICF like conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rao, Pooja; She, Dan; Lim, Hyunkyung; Glimm, James

    2015-11-01

    The qualitative and quantitative effect of initial conditions (linear and non-linear) and high Mach number (1.3 and 1.45) is studied on the turbulent mixing induced by the Richtmyer-Meshkov instability in idealized ICF conditions. The Richtmyer-Meshkov instability seeds Rayleigh-taylor instabilities in ICF experiments and is one of the factors that contributes to reduced performance of ICF experiments. Its also found in collapsing cores of stars and supersonic combustion. We use the Stony Brook University code, FronTier, which is verified via a code comparison study against the AMR multiphysics code FLASH, and validated against vertical shock tube experiments done by the LANL Extreme Fluids Team. These simulations are designed as a step towards simulating more realistic ICF conditions and quantifying the detrimental effects of mixing on the yield.

  18. Predictive hydrogeochemical modelling of bauxite residue sand in field conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wissmeier, Laurin; Barry, David A; Phillips, Ian R

    2011-07-15

    The suitability of residue sand (the coarse fraction remaining from Bayer's process of bauxite refining) for constructing the surface cover of closed bauxite residue storage areas was investigated. Specifically, its properties as a medium for plant growth are of interest to ensure residue sand can support a sustainable ecosystem following site closure. The geochemical evolution of the residue sand under field conditions, its plant nutrient status and soil moisture retention were studied by integrated modelling of geochemical and hydrological processes. For the parameterization of mineral reactions, amounts and reaction kinetics of the mineral phases natron, calcite, tricalcium aluminate, sodalite, muscovite and analcime were derived from measured acid neutralization curves. The effective exchange capacity for ion adsorption was measured using three independent exchange methods. The geochemical model, which accounts for mineral reactions, cation exchange and activity corrected solution speciation, was formulated in the geochemical modelling framework PHREEQC, and partially validated in a saturated-flow column experiment. For the integration of variably saturated flow with multi-component solute transport in heterogeneous 2D domains, a coupling of PHREEQC with the multi-purpose finite-element solver COMSOL was established. The integrated hydrogeochemical model was applied to predict water availability and quality in a vertical flow lysimeter and a cover design for a storage facility using measured time series of rainfall and evaporation from southwest Western Australia. In both scenarios the sand was fertigated and gypsum-amended. Results show poor long-term retention of fertilizer ions and buffering of the pH around 10 for more than 5 y of leaching. It was concluded that fertigation, gypsum amendment and rainfall leaching alone were insufficient to render the geochemical conditions of residue sand suitable for optimal plant growth within the given timeframe. The

  19. On Perturbative Cubic Nonlinear Schrodinger Equations under Complex Nonhomogeneities and Complex Initial Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Magdy A. El-Tawil

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available A perturbing nonlinear Schrodinger equation is studied under general complex nonhomogeneities and complex initial conditions for zero boundary conditions. The perturbation method together with the eigenfunction expansion and variational parameters methods are used to introduce an approximate solution for the perturbative nonlinear case for which a power series solution is proved to exist. Using Mathematica, the symbolic solution algorithm is tested through computing the possible approximations under truncation procedures. The method of solution is illustrated through case studies and figures.

  20. Prediction of knock limited operating conditions of a natural gas engine

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soylu, Seref

    2005-01-01

    Computer models of engine processes are valuable tools for predicting and analyzing engine performance and allow exploration of many engine design alternatives in an inexpensive fashion. In the present work, a zero-dimensional, two zone thermodynamic model was used to determine the knock limited operating conditions of a natural gas engine. Experimentally based burning rate models were used for flame initiation and propagation calculations. A knock model was incorporated with the zero-dimensional model. Comparison of the measured and calculated cylinder pressure data indicated that the model is able to match the measured cylinder pressure data with less than 8% error in magnitudes if the computations are started at the experimental spark timing. The knock predictions agreed with the measurements also. With the established knock model, it is possible not only to investigate whether knock is observed with changing operating and design parameters, but also to evaluate their effects on the maximum possible knock intensity

  1. Short-term prediction of local wind conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Landberg, L.

    2001-01-01

    This paper will describe a system which predicts the expected power output of a number of wind farms. The system is automatic and operates on-line. The paper will quantify the accuracy of the predictions and will also give examples of the performance for specific storm events. An actual...

  2. Path dependence, initial conditions, and routines in organizations : The Toyota production system re-examined

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dolfsma, W.A.; van Driel, H.

    2009-01-01

    Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to disentangle and elaborate on the constitutive elements of the concept of path dependence (initial conditions and lock-in) for a concerted and in-depth application to the study of organizational change. Design/methodology/approach - The approach takes the

  3. Influence of the initial conditions for the numerical simulation of two-phase slug flow

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pachas Napa, Alex A.; Morales, Rigoberto E.M.; Medina, Cesar D. Perea

    2010-07-01

    Multiphase flows in pipelines commonly show several patterns depending on the flow rate, geometry and physical properties of the phases. In oil production, the slug flow pattern is the most common among the others. This flow pattern is characterized by an intermittent succession in space and time of an aerated liquid slug and an elongated gas bubble with a liquid film. Slug flow is studied through the slug tracking model described as one-dimensional and Lagrangian frame referenced. In the model, the mass and the momentum balance equations are applied in control volumes constituted by the gas bubble and the liquid slug. Initial conditions must be determined, which need to reproduce the intermittence of the flow pattern. These initial conditions are given by a sequence of flow properties for each unit cell. Properties of the unit cell in initial conditions should reflect the intermittence, for which they can be analyzed in statistical terms. Therefore, statistical distributions should be obtained for the slug flow variables. Distributions are complemented with the mass balance and the bubble design model. The objective of the present work is to obtain initial conditions for the slug tracking model that reproduce a better adjustment of the fluctuating properties for different pipe inclinations (horizontal, vertical or inclined). The numerical results are compared with experimental data obtained by PFG/FEM/UNICAMP for air-water flow at 0 deg, 45 deg and 90 deg and good agreement is observed. (author)

  4. Multiple unit root tests under uncertainty over the initial condition : some powerful modifications

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hanck, C.

    We modify the union-of-rejection unit root test of Harvey et al. "Unit Root Testing in Practice: Dealing with Uncertainty over the Trend and Initial Condition" (Harvey, Econom Theory 25:587-636, 2009). This test rejects if either of two different unit root tests rejects but controls the inherent

  5. Choice of initial conditions in dynamical calculations of distributions of nuclear fission fragments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kosenko, G.I.

    1993-01-01

    The distribution function in the coordinates and momenta for a fissioning system traversing a barrier is determined in terms of Langevin fluctuation-dissipation dynamics. It is shown that this distribution is best described by the Kramers distribution. The equilibrium distribution can be used as the initial condition, provided that the system is in the overdamping regime. 28 refs., 5 figs., 3 tabs

  6. Initial conditions and robust Newton-Raphson for harmonic balance analysis of free-running oscillators

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Virtanen, J.E.; Maten, ter E.J.W.; Beelen, T.G.J.; Honkala, M.; Hulkkonen, M.

    2011-01-01

    Poor initial conditions for Harmonic Balance (HB) analysis of freerunning oscillators may lead to divergence of the direct Newton-Raphson method or may prevent to find the solution within an optimization approach. We exploit time integration to obtain estimates for the oscillation frequency and for

  7. Initial conditions and robust Newton-Raphson for harmonic balance analysis of free-running oscillators

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Virtanen, J.E.; Maten, ter E.J.W.; Honkala, M.; Hulkkonen, M.; Günther, M.; Bartel, A.; Brunk, M.; Schoeps, S.; Striebel, M.

    2012-01-01

    Poor initial conditions for Harmonic Balance (HB) analysis of free-running oscillators may lead to divergence of the direct Newton-Raphson method or may prevent to find the solution within an optimization approach. We exploit time integration to obtain estimates for the oscillation frequency and for

  8. Computer code calculations of the TMI-2 accident: initial and boundary conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Behling, S.R.

    1985-05-01

    Initial and boundary conditions during the Three Mile Island Unit 2 (TMI-2) accident are described and detailed. A brief description of the TMI-2 plant configuration is given. Important contributions to the progression of the accident in the reactor coolant system are discussed. Sufficient information is provided to allow calculation of the TMI-2 accident with computer codes

  9. On a nonlinear integrodifferential evolution inclusion with nonlocal initial conditions in Banach spaces

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zuomao Yan

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we discuss the existence results for a class of nnlinear integrodifferential evolution inclusions with nonlocal initial conditions in Banach spaces. Our results are based on a fixed point theorem for condensing maps due to Martelli and the resolvent operators combined with approximation techniques.

  10. 42 CFR 433.130 - Waiver of conditions of initial operation and approval.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... Claims Processing and Information Retrieval Systems § 433.130 Waiver of conditions of initial operation... system will not significantly improve the efficiency of the administration of the State plan. (c) If CMS... waiver, that a system would significantly improve the administration of the State Medicaid program, CMS...

  11. Skill of a global seasonal streamflow forecasting system, relative roles of initial conditions and meteorological forcing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Candogan Yossef, N.; Winsemius, H.C.; Weerts, A.; Van Beek, R.; Bierkens, M.F.P.

    2013-01-01

    We investigate the relative contributions of initial conditions (ICs) and meteorological forcing (MF) to the skill of the global seasonal streamflow forecasting system FEWS-World, using the global hydrological model PCRaster Global Water Balance. Potential improvement in forecasting skill through

  12. Perturbations in the initial soil moisture conditions: Impacts on hydrologic simulation in a large river basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niroula, Sundar; Halder, Subhadeep; Ghosh, Subimal

    2018-06-01

    Real time hydrologic forecasting requires near accurate initial condition of soil moisture; however, continuous monitoring of soil moisture is not operational in many regions, such as, in Ganga basin, extended in Nepal, India and Bangladesh. Here, we examine the impacts of perturbation/error in the initial soil moisture conditions on simulated soil moisture and streamflow in Ganga basin and its propagation, during the summer monsoon season (June to September). This provides information regarding the required minimum duration of model simulation for attaining the model stability. We use the Variable Infiltration Capacity model for hydrological simulations after validation. Multiple hydrologic simulations are performed, each of 21 days, initialized on every 5th day of the monsoon season for deficit, surplus and normal monsoon years. Each of these simulations is performed with the initial soil moisture condition obtained from long term runs along with positive and negative perturbations. The time required for the convergence of initial errors is obtained for all the cases. We find a quick convergence for the year with high rainfall as well as for the wet spells within a season. We further find high spatial variations in the time required for convergence; the region with high precipitation such as Lower Ganga basin attains convergence at a faster rate. Furthermore, deeper soil layers need more time for convergence. Our analysis is the first attempt on understanding the sensitivity of hydrological simulations of Ganga basin on initial soil moisture conditions. The results obtained here may be useful in understanding the spin-up requirements for operational hydrologic forecasts.

  13. Initial conditions of urban permeable surfaces in rainfall-runoff models using Horton’s infiltration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Davidsen, Steffen; Löwe, Roland; Høegh Ravn, Nanna

    2017-01-01

    Infiltration is a key process controlling runoff, but varies depending on antecedent conditions. This study provides estimates on initial conditions for urban permeable surfaces via continuous simulation of the infiltration capacity using historical rain data. An analysis of historical rainfall...... records show that accumulated rainfall prior to large rain events does not depend on the return period of the event. Using an infiltration-runoff model we found that for a typical large rain storm, antecedent conditions in general lead to reduced infiltration capacity both for sandy and clayey soils...... and that there is substantial runoff for return periods above 1–10 years....

  14. Workshop on initiation of stress corrosion cracking under LWR conditions: Proceedings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nelson, J.L.; Cubicciotti, D.; Licina, G.J.

    1988-05-01

    A workshop titled ''Initiation of Stress Corrosion Cracking under LWR Conditions'' was held in Palo Alto, California on November 13, 1986, hosted by the Electric Power Research Institute. Participants were experts on the topic from nuclear steam supply and component manufacturers, public and private research laboratories, and university environments. Presentations included discussions on the definition of crack initiation, the effects of environmental and electrochemical variables on cracking susceptibility, and detection methods for the determination of crack initiation events and measurement of critical environmental and stress parameters. Examination of the questions related to crack initiation and its relative importance to the overall question of cracking of LWR materials from these perspectives provided inputs to EPRI project managers on the future direction of research efforts designed to prevent and control cracking. Thirteen reports have been cataloged separately

  15. On the nonparametric prediction of conditionally stationary sequences

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S. Caires; J.A. Ferreira

    2003-01-01

    textabstractWe prove the strong consistency of estimators of the conditional distribution function and conditional expectation of a future observation of a discrete time stochastic process given a fixed number of past observations. The results apply to conditionally stationary processes (a class of

  16. An effort to improve track and intensity prediction of tropical cyclones through vortex initialization in NCUM-global model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Vivek; Routray, A.; Mallick, Swapan; George, John P.; Rajagopal, E. N.

    2016-05-01

    Tropical cyclones (TCs) have strong impact on socio-economic conditions of the countries like India, Bangladesh and Myanmar owing to its awful devastating power. This brings in the need of precise forecasting system to predict the tracks and intensities of TCs accurately well in advance. However, it has been a great challenge for major operational meteorological centers over the years. Genesis of TCs over data sparse warm Tropical Ocean adds more difficulty to this. Weak and misplaced vortices at initial time are one of the prime sources of track and intensity errors in the Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. Many previous studies have reported the forecast skill of track and intensity of TC improved due to the assimilation of satellite data along with vortex initialization (VI). Keeping this in mind, an attempt has been made to investigate the impact of vortex initialization for simulation of TC using UK-Met office global model, operational at NCMRWF (NCUM). This assessment is carried out by taking the case of a extremely severe cyclonic storm "Chapala" that occurred over Arabian Sea (AS) from 28th October to 3rd November 2015. Two numerical experiments viz. Vort-GTS (Assimilation of GTS observations with VI) and Vort-RAD (Same as Vort-GTS with assimilation of satellite data) are carried out. This vortex initialization study in NCUM model is first of its type over North Indian Ocean (NIO). The model simulation of TC is carried out with five different initial conditions through 24 hour cycles for both the experiments. The results indicate that the vortex initialization with assimilation of satellite data has a positive impact on the track and intensity forecast, landfall time and position error of the TCs.

  17. Growth and yield predictions for upland oak stands. 10 years after initial thinning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin E. Dale; Martin E. Dale

    1972-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to furnish part of the needed information, that is, quantitative estimates of growth and yield 10 years after initial thinning of upland oak stands. All estimates are computed from a system of equations. These predictions are presented here in tabular form for convenient visual inspection of growth and yield trends. The tables show growth...

  18. Predicting Age of Sexual Initiation: Family-Level Antecedents in Three Ethnic Groups

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moilanen, Kristin L.; Leary, Janie M.; Watson, S. Michelle; Ottley, Jason

    2018-01-01

    We investigated how family characteristics and experiences during early adolescence predicted timing of sexual initiation. In addition, we investigated adolescent sex and race/ethnicity as potential moderating factors. As part of the Children of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth-1979 (CNLSY-79), 799 adolescents aged 12 to 15 years provided…

  19. Numerical Analysis of Rolling Contact Fatigue Crack Initiation and Fatigue Life Prediction of the Railway Crossing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Xin, L.; Markine, V.L.; Shevtsov, I.

    2015-01-01

    The procedure for analysing rolling contact fatigue crack initiation and fatigue life prediction of the railway turnout crossing is developed. A three-dimensional finite element (FE) model is used to obtain stress and strain results, considering the dynamic effects of wheel-crossing rolling contact.

  20. Neural Network Prediction of Translation Initiation Sites in Eukaryotes: Perspectives for EST and Genome analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Anders Gorm; Nielsen, Henrik

    1997-01-01

    Translation in eukaryotes does not always start at the first AUG in an mRNA, implying that context information also plays a role.This makes prediction of translation initiation sites a non-trivial task, especially when analysing EST and genome data where the entire mature mRNA sequence is not known...

  1. EARLY DYNAMICAL EVOLUTION OF THE SOLAR SYSTEM: PINNING DOWN THE INITIAL CONDITIONS OF THE NICE MODEL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Batygin, Konstantin; Brown, Michael E.

    2010-01-01

    In the recent years, the 'Nice' model of solar system formation has attained an unprecedented level of success in reproducing much of the observed orbital architecture of the solar system by evolving the planets to their current locations from a more compact configuration. Within the context of this model, the formation of the classical Kuiper Belt requires a phase during which the ice giants have a high eccentricity. An outstanding question of this model is the initial configuration from which the solar system started out. Recent work has shown that multi-resonant initial conditions can serve as good candidates, as they naturally prevent vigorous type-II migration. In this paper, we use analytical arguments, as well as self-consistent numerical N-body simulations to identify fully resonant initial conditions, whose dynamical evolution is characterized by an eccentric phase of the ice giants, as well as planetary scattering. We find a total of eight such initial conditions. Four of these primordial states are compatible with the canonical 'Nice' model, while the others imply slightly different evolutions. The results presented here should prove useful in further development of a comprehensive model for solar system formation.

  2. Centrifuge model tests of rainfall-induced slope failures for the investigation of the initiation conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matziaris, Vasileios; Marshall, Alec; Yu, Hai-Sui

    2015-04-01

    Rainfall-induced landslides are very common natural disasters which cause damage to properties and infrastructure and may result in the loss of human lives. These phenomena often take place in unsaturated soil slopes and are triggered by the saturation of the soil profile, due to rain infiltration, which leads to a loss of shear strength. The aim of this study is to determine rainfall thresholds for the initiation of landslides under different initial conditions. Model tests of rainfall-induced landslides are conducted in the Nottingham Centre for Geomechanics 50g-T geotechnical centrifuge. Initially unsaturated plane-strain slope models made with fine silica sand are prepared at varying densities at 1g and accommodated within a climatic chamber which provides controlled environmental conditions. During the centrifuge flight at 60g, rainfall events of varying intensity and duration are applied to the slope models causing the initiation of slope failure. The impact of soil state properties and rainfall characteristics on the landslide initiation process are discussed. The variation of pore water pressures within the slope before, during and after simulated rainfall events is recorded using miniature pore pressure transducers buried in the soil model. Slope deformation is determined by using a high-speed camera and digital image analysis techniques.

  3. Cyclic plastic material behavior leading to crack initiation in stainless steel under complex fatigue loading conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Facheris, G.

    2014-01-01

    The improvement of the reliability and of the safety in the design of components belonging to the primary cooling circuit of a light water nuclear reactor is nowadays one of the most important research topics in nuclear industry. One of the most important damage mechanisms leading the crack initiation in this class of components is the low cycle fatigue (LCF) driven by thermal strain fluctuations caused by the complex thermo-mechanical loading conditions typical for the primary circuit (e.g. operating thermal transients, thermal stratification, turbulent mixing of cold and hot water flows, etc.). The cyclic application of the resulting plastic deformation to the steel grades commonly used for the fabrication of piping parts (e.g. austenitic stainless steels) is associated with a continuous evolution of the mechanical response of the material. As an additional complication, the cyclic behavior of stainless steels is influenced by temperature, strain amplitude and cyclic accumulation of inelastic strain (i.e. ratcheting). The accurate prediction of the structural response of components belonging to the primary cooling circuit requires the development of a reliable constitutive model that must be characterized by a reduced complexity to allow its application in an industrial context. In this framework, the main goal of the current dissertation is to formulate, calibrate and implement in a commercial Finite Element code, a constitutive model that is suitable for the stainless stain grade 316L subjected to complex loading conditions. As a first task, a characterization of the mechanical behavior of 316L subjected to uniaxial and multiaxial strain-controlled conditions (including LCF and ratcheting) is carried out performing several tests in the laboratories of the Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI, Villigen, Switzerland) and of Politecnico di Milano (Italy). The uniaxial experiments demonstrate that, prescribing a strain-controlled ratcheting path, a harder material response

  4. Cyclic plastic material behavior leading to crack initiation in stainless steel under complex fatigue loading conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Facheris, G.

    2014-07-01

    The improvement of the reliability and of the safety in the design of components belonging to the primary cooling circuit of a light water nuclear reactor is nowadays one of the most important research topics in nuclear industry. One of the most important damage mechanisms leading the crack initiation in this class of components is the low cycle fatigue (LCF) driven by thermal strain fluctuations caused by the complex thermo-mechanical loading conditions typical for the primary circuit (e.g. operating thermal transients, thermal stratification, turbulent mixing of cold and hot water flows, etc.). The cyclic application of the resulting plastic deformation to the steel grades commonly used for the fabrication of piping parts (e.g. austenitic stainless steels) is associated with a continuous evolution of the mechanical response of the material. As an additional complication, the cyclic behavior of stainless steels is influenced by temperature, strain amplitude and cyclic accumulation of inelastic strain (i.e. ratcheting). The accurate prediction of the structural response of components belonging to the primary cooling circuit requires the development of a reliable constitutive model that must be characterized by a reduced complexity to allow its application in an industrial context. In this framework, the main goal of the current dissertation is to formulate, calibrate and implement in a commercial Finite Element code, a constitutive model that is suitable for the stainless stain grade 316L subjected to complex loading conditions. As a first task, a characterization of the mechanical behavior of 316L subjected to uniaxial and multiaxial strain-controlled conditions (including LCF and ratcheting) is carried out performing several tests in the laboratories of the Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI, Villigen, Switzerland) and of Politecnico di Milano (Italy). The uniaxial experiments demonstrate that, prescribing a strain-controlled ratcheting path, a harder material response

  5. Temporal predictive mechanisms modulate motor reaction time during initiation and inhibition of speech and hand movement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johari, Karim; Behroozmand, Roozbeh

    2017-08-01

    Skilled movement is mediated by motor commands executed with extremely fine temporal precision. The question of how the brain incorporates temporal information to perform motor actions has remained unanswered. This study investigated the effect of stimulus temporal predictability on response timing of speech and hand movement. Subjects performed a randomized vowel vocalization or button press task in two counterbalanced blocks in response to temporally-predictable and unpredictable visual cues. Results indicated that speech and hand reaction time was decreased for predictable compared with unpredictable stimuli. This finding suggests that a temporal predictive code is established to capture temporal dynamics of sensory cues in order to produce faster movements in responses to predictable stimuli. In addition, results revealed a main effect of modality, indicating faster hand movement compared with speech. We suggest that this effect is accounted for by the inherent complexity of speech production compared with hand movement. Lastly, we found that movement inhibition was faster than initiation for both hand and speech, suggesting that movement initiation requires a longer processing time to coordinate activities across multiple regions in the brain. These findings provide new insights into the mechanisms of temporal information processing during initiation and inhibition of speech and hand movement. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Applying reaction condition index to predict sandstone type uranium deposit

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen Gongxin; Liu Jinhui; Cheng Hai

    2002-01-01

    On the basic of the explanation of reaction condition index, the deduction of reaction condition index calculation principle, the hydrogeological setting in Gongpoquan basin in Baishan, Gansu province and the study of reaction condition index of its water source point, the north Luotuoquan area in Gongpoquan basin seems to be a favourable place for sandstone type uranium deposit, and the prospect area for sandstone type uranium deposit is delimitated

  7. Boundary Conditions, Data Assimilation, and Predictability in Coastal Ocean Models

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Samelson, Roger M; Allen, John S; Egbert, Gary D; Kindle, John C; Snyder, Chris

    2007-01-01

    ...: The specific objectives of this research are to determine the impact on coastal ocean circulation models of open ocean boundary conditions from Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment (GODAE...

  8. Predicting volatility and correlations with Financial Conditions Indexes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Opschoor, A.; van Dijk, D.; van der Wel, M.

    2014-01-01

    We model the impact of financial conditions on asset market volatilities and correlations. We extend the Spline-GARCH model for volatility and DCC model for correlation to allow for inclusion of indexes that measure financial conditions. In our empirical application we consider daily stock returns

  9. Predicting Volatility and Correlations with Financial Conditions Indexes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A. Opschoor (Anne); D.J.C. van Dijk (Dick); M. van der Wel (Michel)

    2014-01-01

    textabstractWe model the impact of financial conditions on asset market volatilities and correlations. We extend the Spline-GARCH model for volatility and DCC model for correlation to allow for inclusion of indexes that measure financial conditions. In our empirical application we consider daily

  10. Conditional Stochastic Processes Applied to Wave Load Predictions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Jørgen Juncher

    2015-01-01

    The concept of conditional stochastic processes provides a powerful tool for evaluation and estimation of wave loads on ships and offshore structures. This article first considers conditional waves with a focus on critical wave episodes. Then the inherent uncertainty in the results is illustrated...

  11. Kinetics of gamma quanta initiated difluoroethane chlorization in inert solvent in dynamic conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Begishev, I.R.; Poluehktov, V.A.

    1979-01-01

    Studied is the kinetics of asymmetric difluoroethane chlorination under dynamic conditions where difluoroethane and chlorine are passed through liquid tetrachloromethane layer. It is shown that initiating chlorination of asymmetric difluoroethane by gamma quanta in the dose and temperature ranges of 2-50 rad/s and -30-100 deg C respectively brings to the significant increase of the reaction rate and unusually high trend for halogenated hydrocarbons, i.e. practically 1, 1, 1 - difluorochloroethane with quantitative yield is formed. In this case radiation chemical yield G=10 4 -10 5 is achieved. It is shown that the chlorination process under dynamic conditions, complicated by the transport of initial reagents from a gas phase to a liquid one and reaction products from a liquid phase to a gas one, is described satisfactorily by the model of ideal substitution reactor

  12. Anomalous transport in cellular flows: The role of initial conditions and aging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pöschke, Patrick; Sokolov, Igor M.; Nepomnyashchy, Alexander A.; Zaks, Michael A.

    2016-09-01

    We consider the diffusion-advection problem in two simple cellular flow models (often invoked as examples of subdiffusive tracer motion) and concentrate on the intermediate time range, in which the tracer motion indeed may show subdiffusion. We perform extensive numerical simulations of the systems under different initial conditions and show that the pure intermediate-time subdiffusion regime is only evident when the particles start at the border between different cells, i.e., at the separatrix, and is less pronounced or absent for other initial conditions. The motion moreover shows quite peculiar aging properties, which are also mirrored in the behavior of the time-averaged mean squared displacement for single trajectories. This kind of behavior is due to the complex motion of tracers trapped inside the cell and is absent in classical models based on continuous-time random walks with no dynamics in the trapped state.

  13. Abstract fractional integro-differential equations involving nonlocal initial conditions in α-norm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wang Rong-Nian

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract In the present paper, we deal with the Cauchy problems of abstract fractional integro-differential equations involving nonlocal initial conditions in α-norm, where the operator A in the linear part is the generator of a compact analytic semigroup. New criterions, ensuring the existence of mild solutions, are established. The results are obtained by using the theory of operator families associated with the function of Wright type and the semigroup generated by A, Krasnoselkii's fixed point theorem and Schauder's fixed point theorem. An application to a fractional partial integro-differential equation with nonlocal initial condition is also considered. Mathematics subject classification (2000 26A33, 34G10, 34G20

  14. Non-Gaussian initial conditions in ΛCDM: Newtonian, relativistic, and primordial contributions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bruni, Marco; Hidalgo, Juan Carlos; Meures, Nikolai; Wands, David

    2014-01-01

    The goal of the present paper is to set initial conditions for structure formation at nonlinear order, consistent with general relativity, while also allowing for primordial non-Gaussianity. We use the nonlinear continuity and Raychaudhuri equations, which together with the nonlinear energy constraint, determine the evolution of the matter density fluctuation in general relativity. We solve this equations at first and second order in a perturbative expansion, recovering and extending previous results derived in the matter-dominated limit and in the Newtonian regime. We present a second-order solution for the comoving density contrast in a ΛCDM universe, identifying nonlinear contributions coming from the Newtonian growing mode, primordial non-Gaussianity and intrinsic non-Gaussianity, due to the essential nonlinearity of the relativistic constraint equations. We discuss the application of these results to initial conditions in N-body simulations, showing that relativistic corrections mimic a non-zero nonlinear parameter f NL

  15. Quantification of discreteness effects in cosmological N-body simulations: Initial conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Joyce, M.; Marcos, B.

    2007-01-01

    The relation between the results of cosmological N-body simulations, and the continuum theoretical models they simulate, is currently not understood in a way which allows a quantification of N dependent effects. In this first of a series of papers on this issue, we consider the quantification of such effects in the initial conditions of such simulations. A general formalism developed in [A. Gabrielli, Phys. Rev. E 70, 066131 (2004).] allows us to write down an exact expression for the power spectrum of the point distributions generated by the standard algorithm for generating such initial conditions. Expanded perturbatively in the amplitude of the input (i.e. theoretical, continuum) power spectrum, we obtain at linear order the input power spectrum, plus two terms which arise from discreteness and contribute at large wave numbers. For cosmological type power spectra, one obtains as expected, the input spectrum for wave numbers k smaller than that characteristic of the discreteness. The comparison of real space correlation properties is more subtle because the discreteness corrections are not as strongly localized in real space. For cosmological type spectra the theoretical mass variance in spheres and two-point correlation function are well approximated above a finite distance. For typical initial amplitudes this distance is a few times the interparticle distance, but it diverges as this amplitude (or, equivalently, the initial redshift of the cosmological simulation) goes to zero, at fixed particle density. We discuss briefly the physical significance of these discreteness terms in the initial conditions, in particular, with respect to the definition of the continuum limit of N-body simulations

  16. In silico platform for predicting and initiating β-turns in a protein at desired locations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Harinder; Singh, Sandeep; Raghava, Gajendra P S

    2015-05-01

    Numerous studies have been performed for analysis and prediction of β-turns in a protein. This study focuses on analyzing, predicting, and designing of β-turns to understand the preference of amino acids in β-turn formation. We analyzed around 20,000 PDB chains to understand the preference of residues or pair of residues at different positions in β-turns. Based on the results, a propensity-based method has been developed for predicting β-turns with an accuracy of 82%. We introduced a new approach entitled "Turn level prediction method," which predicts the complete β-turn rather than focusing on the residues in a β-turn. Finally, we developed BetaTPred3, a Random forest based method for predicting β-turns by utilizing various features of four residues present in β-turns. The BetaTPred3 achieved an accuracy of 79% with 0.51 MCC that is comparable or better than existing methods on BT426 dataset. Additionally, models were developed to predict β-turn types with better performance than other methods available in the literature. In order to improve the quality of prediction of turns, we developed prediction models on a large and latest dataset of 6376 nonredundant protein chains. Based on this study, a web server has been developed for prediction of β-turns and their types in proteins. This web server also predicts minimum number of mutations required to initiate or break a β-turn in a protein at specified location of a protein. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  17. Assessing initial conditions for chloride transport across low-permeability argillaceous rocks, Wellenberg, Switzerland

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Waber, H.N.; Hobbs, M.Y.; Frape, S.K.

    2013-01-01

    Information about fluid evolution and solute transport in a low-permeability metamorphic rock sequence has been obtained by comparing chloride concentrations and chlorine isotope ratios of pore water, groundwater, and fluid inclusions. The similarity of δ 37 Cl values in fluid inclusions and groundwater suggests a closed-system evolution during the metamorphic overprint, and signatures established at this time appear to form the initial conditions for chloride transport after exhumation of the rock sequence. (authors)

  18. Assessing initial conditions for chloride transport across low-permeability argillaceous rocks, Wellenberg, Switzerland

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Waber, H.N. [Rock-Water Interaction Group, Institute of Geological Sciences, University of Bern, Baltzerstrasse 1-3, 3012 Bern (Switzerland); Hobbs, M.Y. [Rock-Water Interaction Group, Institute of Geological Sciences, University of Bern, Baltzerstrasse 1-3, 3012 Bern (Switzerland); Nuclear Waste Management Organization (NWMO), 22 St. Clair Avenue East, M4T 2S3 Toronto, Ontario (Canada); Frape, S.K. [Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario (Canada)

    2013-07-01

    Information about fluid evolution and solute transport in a low-permeability metamorphic rock sequence has been obtained by comparing chloride concentrations and chlorine isotope ratios of pore water, groundwater, and fluid inclusions. The similarity of δ{sup 37}Cl values in fluid inclusions and groundwater suggests a closed-system evolution during the metamorphic overprint, and signatures established at this time appear to form the initial conditions for chloride transport after exhumation of the rock sequence. (authors)

  19. Discretizing LTI Descriptor (Regular Differential Input Systems with Consistent Initial Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Athanasios D. Karageorgos

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available A technique for discretizing efficiently the solution of a Linear descriptor (regular differential input system with consistent initial conditions, and Time-Invariant coefficients (LTI is introduced and fully discussed. Additionally, an upper bound for the error ‖x¯(kT−x¯k‖ that derives from the procedure of discretization is also provided. Practically speaking, we are interested in such kind of systems, since they are inherent in many physical, economical and engineering phenomena.

  20. Flow behaviour in a CANDU horizontal fuel channel from stagnant subcooled initial conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Caplan, M.Z.; Gulshani, P.; Holmes, R.W.; Wright, A.C.D.

    1984-01-01

    The flow behaviour in a CANDU primary system with horizontal fuel channels is described following a small inlet header break. With the primary pumps running, emergency coolant injection is in the forward direction so that the channel outlet feeders remain warmer than the inlet thereby promoting forward natural circulation. However, the break force opposes the forward driving force. Should the primary pumps run down after the circuit has refilled, there is a break size for which the natural circulation force is balanced by the break force and channels could, theoretically, stagnate. Result of visualization and of full-size channel tests on channel flow behaviour from an initially stagnant channel condition are discussed. After a channel stagnation, the decay power heats the coolant to saturation. Steam is then formed and the coolant stratifies. The steam expands into the subcooled water in the end fitting in a chugging type of flow regime due to steam condensation. After the end fitting reaches the saturation temperature, steam is able to penetrate into the vertical feeder thereby initiating a large buoyancy induced flow which refills the channel. The duration of stagnation is shown to be sensitive to small asymmetries in the initial conditions. A small initial flow can significantly shorten the occurrence and/or duration of boiling as has been confirmed by reactor experience. (author)

  1. The shear-free condition and constant-mean-curvature hyperboloidal initial data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Allen, Paul T; Allen, Iva Stavrov; Isenberg, James; Lee, John M

    2016-01-01

    We consider the Einstein–Maxwell-fluid constraint equations, and make use of the conformal method to construct and parametrize constant-mean-curvature hyperboloidal initial data sets that satisfy the shear-free condition. This condition is known to be necessary in order that a spacetime development admit a regular conformal boundary at future null infinity; see (Andersson and Chruściel 1994 Commun. Math. Phys. 161 533–68). We work with initial data sets in a variety of regularity classes, primarily considering those data sets whose geometries are weakly asymptotically hyperbolic , as defined in (Allen et al 2015 arXiv:1506.03399). These metrics are C 1,1 conformally compact, but not necessarily C 2 conformally compact. In order to ensure that the data sets we construct are indeed shear-free, we make use of the conformally covariant traceless Hessian introduced in (Allen et al 2015 arXiv:1506.03399). We furthermore construct a class of initial data sets with weakly asymptotically hyerbolic metrics that may be only C 0,1 conformally compact; these data sets are insufficiently regular to make sense of the shear-free condition. (paper)

  2. Avoiding the blue spectrum and the fine-tuning of initial conditions in hybrid inflation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clesse, Sebastien; Rocher, Jonathan

    2009-01-01

    Hybrid inflation faces two well-known problems: the blue spectrum of the nonsupersymmetric version of the model and the fine-tuning of the initial conditions of the fields leading to sufficient inflation to account for the standard cosmological problems. They are investigated by studying the exact two-fields dynamics instead of assuming slow-roll. When the field values are restricted to be less than the reduced Planck mass, a non-negligible part of the initial condition space (around 15% depending on potential parameters) leads to successful inflation. Most of it is located outside the usual inflationary valley and organized in continuous patterns instead of being isolated as previously found. Their existence is explained and their properties are studied. This shows that no excessive fine-tuning is required for successful hybrid inflation. Moreover, by extending the initial condition space to Planckian-like or super-Planckian values, inflation becomes generically sufficiently long and can produce a red-tilted scalar power spectrum due to slow-roll violations. The robustness of these properties is confirmed by conducting our analysis on three other models of hybrid-type inflation in various framework: 'smooth' and 'shifted' inflation in SUSY and SUGRA, and 'radion assisted' gauge inflation. A high percentage of successful inflation for smooth hybrid inflation (up to 80%) is observed.

  3. Reverse engineering of heavy-ion collisions: Unraveling initial conditions from anisotropic flow data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Retinskaya, Ekaterina

    2014-01-01

    Ultra-Relativistic heavy-ion physics is a promising field of high energy physics connecting two fields: nuclear physics and elementary particle physics. Experimental achievements of the last years have provided an opportunity to study the properties of a new state of matter created in heavy-ion collisions called quark-gluon plasma. The initial state of two colliding nuclei is affected by fluctuations coming from wave- functions of nucleons. These fluctuations lead to the momentum anisotropy of the hadronic matter which is observed by the detectors. The system created in the collision behaves like a fluid, so the initial state is connected to the final state via hydrodynamic evolution. In this thesis we model the evolution with relativistic viscous hydrodynamics. Our results, combined with experimental data, give non trivial constraints on the initial state, thus achieving 'reverse engineering' of the heavy-ion collisions. The observable which characterizes the momentum anisotropy is the anisotropic flow v n . We present the first measurements of the first harmonic of the anisotropic flow called directed flow v 1 in Pb-Pb collisions at the LHC. We then perform the first viscous hydrodynamic modeling of directed flow and show that it is less sensitive to viscosity than higher harmonics. Comparison of these experimental data with the modeling allows to extract the values of the dipole asymmetry of the initial state, which provides constraints on the models of initial states. A prediction for directed flow v 1 in Au-Au collisions is also made for RHIC. We then perform a similar modeling of the second and third harmonics of the anisotropic flow, called respectively elliptic v 2 and triangular v 3 flow. A combined analysis of the elliptic and triangular flow data compared with viscous hydrodynamic calculations allows us to put constraints on initial ellipticity and triangularity of the system. These constraints are then used as a filter for different models of

  4. The initial representation in reasoning towards an interpretation of conditional sentences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schroyens, Walter; Braem, Senne

    2011-02-01

    All accounts of human reasoning (whether presented at the symbolic or subsymbolic level) have to reckon with the temporal organization of the human processing systems and the ephemeral nature of the representations it uses. We present three new empirical tests for the hypothesis that people commence the interpretational process by constructing a minimal initial representation. In the case of if A then C the initial representation captures the occurrence of the consequent, C, within the context of the antecedent, A. Conditional inference problems are created by a categorical premise that affirms or denies A or C. The initial representation allows an inference when the explicitly represented information matches (e.g., the categorical premise A affirms the antecedent "A") but not when it mismatches (e.g., "not-A" denies A). Experiments 1 and 2 confirmed that people tend to accept the conclusion that "nothing follows" for the denial problems, as indeed they do not have a determinate initial-model conclusion. Experiment 3 demonstrated the other way round that the effect of problem type (affirmation versus denial) is reduced when we impede the possibility of inferring a determinate conclusion on the basis of the initial representation of both the affirmation and the denial problems.

  5. Predicting the susceptibility to gully initiation in data-poor regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dewitte, Olivier; Daoudi, Mohamed; Bosco, Claudio; Van Den Eeckhaut, Miet

    2015-01-01

    Permanent gullies are common features in many landscapes and quite often they represent the dominant soil erosion process. Once a gully has initiated, field evidence shows that gully channel formation and headcut migration rapidly occur. In order to prevent the undesired effects of gullying, there is a need to predict the places where new gullies might initiate. From detailed field measurements, studies have demonstrated strong inverse relationships between slope gradient of the soil surface (S) and drainage area (A) at the point of channel initiation across catchments in different climatic and morphological environments. Such slope-area thresholds (S-A) can be used to predict locations in the landscape where gullies might initiate. However, acquiring S-A requires detailed field investigations and accurate high resolution digital elevation data, which are usually difficult to acquire. To circumvent this issue, we propose a two-step method that uses published S-A thresholds and a logistic regression analysis (LR). S-A thresholds from the literature are used as proxies of field measurement. The method is calibrated and validated on a watershed, close to the town of Algiers, northern Algeria, where gully erosion affects most of the slopes. The gullies extend up to several kilometres in length and cover 16% of the study area. First we reconstruct the initiation areas of the existing gullies by applying S-A thresholds for similar environments. Then, using the initiation area map as the dependent variable with combinations of topographic and lithological predictor variables, we calibrate several LR models. It provides relevant results in terms of statistical reliability, prediction performance, and geomorphological significance. This method using S-A thresholds with data-driven assessment methods like LR proves to be efficient when applied to common spatial data and establishes a methodology that will allow similar studies to be undertaken elsewhere.

  6. Predictive value of ventilatory inflection points determined under field conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heyde, Christian; Mahler, Hubert; Roecker, Kai; Gollhofer, Albert

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the predictive potential provided by two ventilatory inflection points (VIP1 and VIP2) examined in field without using gas analysis systems and uncomfortable facemasks. A calibrated respiratory inductance plethysmograph (RIP) and a computerised routine were utilised, respectively, to derive ventilation and to detect VIP1 and VIP2 during a standardised field ramp test on a 400 m running track on 81 participants. In addition, average running speed of a competitive 1000 m run (S1k) was observed as criterion. The predictive value of running speed at VIP1 (SVIP1) and the speed range between VIP1 and VIP2 in relation to VIP2 (VIPSPAN) was analysed via regression analysis. VIPSPAN rather than running speed at VIP2 (SVIP2) was operationalised as a predictor to consider the covariance between SVIP1 and SVIP2. SVIP1 and VIPSPAN, respectively, provided 58.9% and 22.9% of explained variance in regard to S1k. Considering covariance, the timing of two ventilatory inflection points provides predictive value in regard to a competitive 1000 m run. This is the first study to apply computerised detection of ventilatory inflection points in a field setting independent on measurements of the respiratory gas exchange and without using any facemasks.

  7. [Predictive methods versus clinical titration for the initiation of lithium therapy. A systematic review].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geeraerts, I; Sienaert, P

    2013-01-01

    When lithium is administered, the clinician needs to know when the lithium in the patient’s blood has reached a therapeutic level. At the initiation of treatment the level is usually achieved gradually through the application of the titration method. In order to increase the efficacy of this procedure several methods for dosing lithium and for predicting lithium levels have been developed. To conduct a systematic review of the publications relating to the various methods for dosing lithium or predicting lithium levels at the initiation of therapy. We searched Medline systematically for articles published in English, French or Dutch between 1966 and April 2012 which described or studied a method for dosing lithium or for predicting the lithium level reached following a specific dosage. We screened the reference lists of relevant articles in order to locate additional papers. We found 38 lithium prediction methods, in addition to the clinical titration method. These methods can be divided into two categories: the ‘a priori’ methods and the ‘test-dose’ methods, the latter requiring the administration of a test dose of lithium. The lithium prediction methods generally achieve a therapeutic blood level faster than the clinical titration method, but none of the methods achieves convincing results. On the basis of our review, we propose that the titration method should be used as the standard method in clinical practice.

  8. Methodology to predict the initiation of multiple transverse fractures from horizontal wellbores

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Crosby, D. G.; Yang, Z.; Rahman, S. S. [Univ. of New South Wales (Australia)

    2001-10-01

    The criterion based on Drucker and Prager which is designed to predict the pressure required to initiate secondary multiple transverse fractures in close proximity to primary fractures is discussed. Results based on this criterion compare favorably with those measured during a series of laboratory-scale hydraulic fracture interaction tests. It is concluded that the multiple fracture criterion and laboratory results demonstrate that transversely fractured horizontal wellbores have a limited capacity to resist the initiation of multiple fractures from adjacent perforations, or intersecting induced and natural fractures. 23 refs., 1 tab., 9 figs.

  9. Robust Initial Wetness Condition Framework of an Event-Based Rainfall–Runoff Model Using Remotely Sensed Soil Moisture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wooyeon Sunwoo

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Runoff prediction in limited-data areas is vital for hydrological applications, such as the design of infrastructure and flood defenses, runoff forecasting, and water management. Rainfall–runoff models may be useful for simulation of runoff generation, particularly event-based models, which offer a practical modeling scheme because of their simplicity. However, there is a need to reduce the uncertainties related to the estimation of the initial wetness condition (IWC prior to a rainfall event. Soil moisture is one of the most important variables in rainfall–runoff modeling, and remotely sensed soil moisture is recognized as an effective way to improve the accuracy of runoff prediction. In this study, the IWC was evaluated based on remotely sensed soil moisture by using the Soil Conservation Service-Curve Number (SCS-CN method, which is one of the representative event-based models used for reducing the uncertainty of runoff prediction. Four proxy variables for the IWC were determined from the measurements of total rainfall depth (API5, ground-based soil moisture (SSMinsitu, remotely sensed surface soil moisture (SSM, and soil water index (SWI provided by the advanced scatterometer (ASCAT. To obtain a robust IWC framework, this study consists of two main parts: the validation of remotely sensed soil moisture, and the evaluation of runoff prediction using four proxy variables with a set of rainfall–runoff events in the East Asian monsoon region. The results showed an acceptable agreement between remotely sensed soil moisture (SSM and SWI and ground based soil moisture data (SSMinsitu. In the proxy variable analysis, the SWI indicated the optimal value among the proposed proxy variables. In the runoff prediction analysis considering various infiltration conditions, the SSM and SWI proxy variables significantly reduced the runoff prediction error as compared with API5 by 60% and 66%, respectively. Moreover, the proposed IWC framework with

  10. Symbolic computation of analytic approximate solutions for nonlinear differential equations with initial conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Yezhi; Liu, Yinping; Li, Zhibin

    2012-01-01

    The Adomian decomposition method (ADM) is one of the most effective methods for constructing analytic approximate solutions of nonlinear differential equations. In this paper, based on the new definition of the Adomian polynomials, and the two-step Adomian decomposition method (TSADM) combined with the Padé technique, a new algorithm is proposed to construct accurate analytic approximations of nonlinear differential equations with initial conditions. Furthermore, a MAPLE package is developed, which is user-friendly and efficient. One only needs to input a system, initial conditions and several necessary parameters, then our package will automatically deliver analytic approximate solutions within a few seconds. Several different types of examples are given to illustrate the validity of the package. Our program provides a helpful and easy-to-use tool in science and engineering to deal with initial value problems. Program summaryProgram title: NAPA Catalogue identifier: AEJZ_v1_0 Program summary URL:http://cpc.cs.qub.ac.uk/summaries/AEJZ_v1_0.html Program obtainable from: CPC Program Library, Queen's University, Belfast, N. Ireland Licensing provisions: Standard CPC licence, http://cpc.cs.qub.ac.uk/licence/licence.html No. of lines in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 4060 No. of bytes in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 113 498 Distribution format: tar.gz Programming language: MAPLE R13 Computer: PC Operating system: Windows XP/7 RAM: 2 Gbytes Classification: 4.3 Nature of problem: Solve nonlinear differential equations with initial conditions. Solution method: Adomian decomposition method and Padé technique. Running time: Seconds at most in routine uses of the program. Special tasks may take up to some minutes.

  11. Decoupling in an expanding universe boundary RG-flow affects initial conditions for inflation

    CERN Document Server

    Schalm, K; Van der Schaar, J P; Schalm, Koenraad; Shiu, Gary; Schaar, Jan Pieter van der

    2004-01-01

    We study decoupling in FRW spacetimes, emphasizing a Lagrangian description throughout. To account for the vacuum choice ambiguity in cosmological settings, we introduce an arbitrary boundary action representing the initial conditions. RG flow in these spacetimes naturally affects the boundary interactions. As a consequence the boundary conditions are sensitive to high-energy physics through irrelevant terms in the boundary action. Using scalar field theory as an example, we derive the leading dimension four irrelevant boundary operators. We discuss how the known vacuum choices, e.g. the Bunch-Davies vacuum, appear in the Lagrangian description and square with decoupling. For all choices of boundary conditions encoded by relevant boundary operators, of which the known ones are a subset, backreaction is under control. All, moreover, will generically feel the influence of high-energy physics through irrelevant (dimension four) boundary corrections. Having established a coherent effective field theory framework ...

  12. Validation of the criteria for initiating the cleaning of heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) ductwork under real conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lavoie, Jacques; Marchand, Geneviève; Cloutier, Yves; Lavoué, Jérôme

    2011-08-01

    Dust accumulation in the components of heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems is a potential source of contaminants. To date, very little information is available on recognized methods for assessing dust buildup in these systems. The few existing methods are either objective in nature, involving numerical values, or subjective in nature, based on experts' judgments. An earlier project aimed at assessing different methods of sampling dust in ducts was carried out in the laboratories of the Institut de recherche Robert-Sauvé en santé et en sécurité du travail (IRSST). This laboratory study showed that all the sampling methods were practicable, provided that a specific surface-dust cleaning initiation criterion was used for each method. However, these conclusions were reached on the basis of ideal conditions in a laboratory using a reference dust. The objective of this present study was to validate these laboratory results in the field. To this end, the laboratory sampling templates were replicated in real ducts and the three sampling methods (the IRSST method, the method of the U.S. organization National Air Duct Cleaner Association [NADCA] and that of the French organization Association pour la Prévention et l'Étude de la Contamination [ASPEC]) were used simultaneously in a statistically representative number of systems. The air return and supply ducts were also compared. Cleaning initiation criteria under real conditions were found to be 6.0 mg/100 cm(2) using the IRSST method, 2.0 mg/100 cm(2) using the NADCA method, and 23 mg/100 cm(2) using the ASPEC method. In the laboratory study, the criteria using the same methods were 6.0 for the IRSST method, 2.0 for the NADCA method, and 3.0 for the ASPEC method. The laboratory criteria for the IRSST and NADCA methods were therefore validated in the field. The ASPEC criterion was the only one to change. The ASPEC method therefore allows for the most accurate evaluation of dust accumulation in HVAC

  13. Online sequential condition prediction method of natural circulation systems based on EOS-ELM and phase space reconstruction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Hanying; Gao, Puzhen; Tan, Sichao; Tang, Jiguo; Yuan, Hongsheng

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: •An online condition prediction method for natural circulation systems in NPP was proposed based on EOS-ELM. •The proposed online prediction method was validated using experimental data. •The training speed of the proposed method is significantly fast. •The proposed method can achieve good accuracy in wide parameter range. -- Abstract: Natural circulation design is widely used in the passive safety systems of advanced nuclear power reactors. The irregular and chaotic flow oscillations are often observed in boiling natural circulation systems so it is difficult for operators to monitor and predict the condition of these systems. An online condition forecasting method for natural circulation system is proposed in this study as an assisting technique for plant operators. The proposed prediction approach was developed based on Ensemble of Online Sequential Extreme Learning Machine (EOS-ELM) and phase space reconstruction. Online Sequential Extreme Learning Machine (OS-ELM) is an online sequential learning neural network algorithm and EOS-ELM is the ensemble method of it. The proposed condition prediction method can be initiated by a small chunk of monitoring data and it can be updated by newly arrived data at very fast speed during the online prediction. Simulation experiments were conducted on the data of two natural circulation loops to validate the performance of the proposed method. The simulation results show that the proposed predication model can successfully recognize different types of flow oscillations and accurately forecast the trend of monitored plant variables. The influence of the number of hidden nodes and neural network inputs on prediction performance was studied and the proposed model can achieve good accuracy in a wide parameter range. Moreover, the comparison results show that the proposed condition prediction method has much faster online learning speed and better prediction accuracy than conventional neural network model.

  14. Prediction of hydrological reduction factor and initial loss in urban surface runoff from small ungauged catchments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K.; Harremoës, P.

    1996-01-01

    An advanced runoff model is compared to a simple one employing only a runoff coefficient and a regression parameter allowing for initial loss. The present study shows that the more detailed description of the runoff processes cannot be justified due to the uncertainty from using only one gauge...... in the evaluation of the yearly discharges. In the case of extreme events, the uncertainty of the predicted runoff of the single event should also be taken into account....

  15. Numerical analysis of rolling contact fatigue crack initiation and fatigue life prediction of the railway crossing

    OpenAIRE

    Xin, L.; Markine, V.L.; Shevtsov, I.

    2015-01-01

    The procedure for analysing rolling contact fatigue crack initiation and fatigue life prediction of the railway turnout crossing is developed. A three-dimensional finite element (FE) model is used to obtain stress and strain results, considering the dynamic effects of wheel-crossing rolling contact. Material model accounting for elastic- plastic isotropic and kinematic hardening effects is adopted. The results from FE analysis are combined with J-S fatigue model that is based on critical plan...

  16. A computation method for mass flowrate predictions in critical flows of initially subcooled liquid in long channels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Celata, G.P.; D'Annibale, F.; Farello, G.E.

    1985-01-01

    It is suggested a fast and accurate computation method for the prediction of mass flowrate in critical flows initially subcooled liquid from ''long'' discharge channels (high LID values). Starting from a previous very simple correlation proposed by the authors, further improvements in the model enable to widen the method reliability up to initial saturation conditions. A comparison of computed values with 145 experimental data regarding several investigations carried out at the Heat Transfer Laboratory (TERM/ISP, ENEA Casaccia) shows an excellent agreement. The computed data shifting from experimental ones is within ±10% for almost all data, with a slight increase towards low inlet subcoolings. The average error, for all the considered data, is 4,6%

  17. Predicting redox conditions in groundwater at a regional scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tesoriero, Anthony J.; Terziotti, Silvia; Abrams, Daniel B.

    2015-01-01

    Defining the oxic-suboxic interface is often critical for determining pathways for nitrate transport in groundwater and to streams at the local scale. Defining this interface on a regional scale is complicated by the spatial variability of reaction rates. The probability of oxic groundwater in the Chesapeake Bay watershed was predicted by relating dissolved O2 concentrations in groundwater samples to indicators of residence time and/or electron donor availability using logistic regression. Variables that describe surficial geology, position in the flow system, and soil drainage were important predictors of oxic water. The probability of encountering oxic groundwater at a 30 m depth and the depth to the bottom of the oxic layer were predicted for the Chesapeake Bay watershed. The influence of depth to the bottom of the oxic layer on stream nitrate concentrations and time lags (i.e., time period between land application of nitrogen and its effect on streams) are illustrated using model simulations for hypothetical basins. Regional maps of the probability of oxic groundwater should prove useful as indicators of groundwater susceptibility and stream susceptibility to contaminant sources derived from groundwater.

  18. Greenland Regional and Ice Sheet-wide Geometry Sensitivity to Boundary and Initial conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Logan, L. C.; Narayanan, S. H. K.; Greve, R.; Heimbach, P.

    2017-12-01

    Ice sheet and glacier model outputs require inputs from uncertainly known initial and boundary conditions, and other parameters. Conservation and constitutive equations formalize the relationship between model inputs and outputs, and the sensitivity of model-derived quantities of interest (e.g., ice sheet volume above floatation) to model variables can be obtained via the adjoint model of an ice sheet. We show how one particular ice sheet model, SICOPOLIS (SImulation COde for POLythermal Ice Sheets), depends on these inputs through comprehensive adjoint-based sensitivity analyses. SICOPOLIS discretizes the shallow-ice and shallow-shelf approximations for ice flow, and is well-suited for paleo-studies of Greenland and Antarctica, among other computational domains. The adjoint model of SICOPOLIS was developed via algorithmic differentiation, facilitated by the source transformation tool OpenAD (developed at Argonne National Lab). While model sensitivity to various inputs can be computed by costly methods involving input perturbation simulations, the time-dependent adjoint model of SICOPOLIS delivers model sensitivities to initial and boundary conditions throughout time at lower cost. Here, we explore both the sensitivities of the Greenland Ice Sheet's entire and regional volumes to: initial ice thickness, precipitation, basal sliding, and geothermal flux over the Holocene epoch. Sensitivity studies such as described here are now accessible to the modeling community, based on the latest version of SICOPOLIS that has been adapted for OpenAD to generate correct and efficient adjoint code.

  19. Optimal Initial Perturbations for Ensemble Prediction of the Madden-Julian Oscillation during Boreal Winter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ham, Yoo-Geun; Schubert, Siegfried; Chang, Yehui

    2012-01-01

    An initialization strategy, tailored to the prediction of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO), is evaluated using the Goddard Earth Observing System Model, version 5 (GEOS-5), coupled general circulation model (CGCM). The approach is based on the empirical singular vectors (ESVs) of a reduced-space statistically determined linear approximation of the full nonlinear CGCM. The initial ESV, extracted using 10 years (1990-99) of boreal winter hindcast data, has zonal wind anomalies over the western Indian Ocean, while the final ESV (at a forecast lead time of 10 days) reflects a propagation of the zonal wind anomalies to the east over the Maritime Continent an evolution that is characteristic of the MJO. A new set of ensemble hindcasts are produced for the boreal winter season from 1990 to 1999 in which the leading ESV provides the initial perturbations. The results are compared with those from a set of control hindcasts generated using random perturbations. It is shown that the ESV-based predictions have a systematically higher bivariate correlation skill in predicting the MJO compared to those using the random perturbations. Furthermore, the improvement in the skill depends on the phase of the MJO. The ESV is particularly effective in increasing the forecast skill during those phases of the MJO in which the control has low skill (with correlations increasing by as much as 0.2 at 20 25-day lead times), as well as during those times in which the MJO is weak.

  20. Prediction of Typhoon Wind Speeds under Global Warming Conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choun, Young Sun; Kim, Min Kyu; Kang, Ju Whan; Kim, Yang Seon

    2016-01-01

    The continuous increase of SST by global warming conditions in the western North Pacific Ocean results in an increased occurrence of supertyphoons in East Asia and the Korean Peninsula. Recent numerical experiments have found that the central pressures of two historical typhoons, Maemi (2003) and Rusa (2002), which recorded the highest storm surges along the coasts of the Korean Peninsula, dropped about 19 and 17 hPa, respectively, when considering the future SST (a warming of 3.9 .deg. C for 100 years) over the East China Sea. The maximum wind speeds increase under global warming conditions. The probability of occurrence of super-typhoons increases in the future. The estimated return period for supertyphoons affecting the Younggwang site is about 1,000,000 years.

  1. Prediction of Typhoon Wind Speeds under Global Warming Conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Choun, Young Sun; Kim, Min Kyu [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Kang, Ju Whan; Kim, Yang Seon [Mokpo National University, Muan (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-05-15

    The continuous increase of SST by global warming conditions in the western North Pacific Ocean results in an increased occurrence of supertyphoons in East Asia and the Korean Peninsula. Recent numerical experiments have found that the central pressures of two historical typhoons, Maemi (2003) and Rusa (2002), which recorded the highest storm surges along the coasts of the Korean Peninsula, dropped about 19 and 17 hPa, respectively, when considering the future SST (a warming of 3.9 .deg. C for 100 years) over the East China Sea. The maximum wind speeds increase under global warming conditions. The probability of occurrence of super-typhoons increases in the future. The estimated return period for supertyphoons affecting the Younggwang site is about 1,000,000 years.

  2. A model to predict moisture conditions in concrete reactor containments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahs, M.; Nilsson, L.O.; Poyet, S.; L'Hostis, V.

    2015-01-01

    Moisture has an impact in many of the degradation mechanisms that appear in the structures of a nuclear power plant. Moisture conditions in a reactor containment wall have been simulated by using a hygro-thermal model of drying concrete. Methods to estimate the temperature dependency of the sorption isotherms and moisture transport properties is suggested and applied in the model. This temperature dependency is included as there is a temperature gradient present through the containment wall. The hygro-thermal model was applied on a full scale 3D model of a real reactor containment building and the concrete relative humidity has been computed at 4 different moments: 1, 10, 20 and 30 years. The results show that the major part of the concrete is not dried at all even after 30 years of operation. It is also clear that the temperature distribution inside the whole concrete volume is affected by the variable boundary conditions. It was concluded that the suggested hygro-thermal model was appropriate to use as a method to estimate the existing conditions in a PWR reactor containment wall

  3. Body Condition Indices Predict Reproductive Success but Not Survival in a Sedentary, Tropical Bird

    OpenAIRE

    Milenkaya, Olga; Catlin, Daniel H.; Legge, Sarah; Walters, Jeffrey R.

    2015-01-01

    Body condition may predict individual fitness because those in better condition have more resources to allocate towards improving their fitness. However, the hypothesis that condition indices are meaningful proxies for fitness has been questioned. Here, we ask if intraspecific variation in condition indices predicts annual reproductive success and survival. We monitored a population of Neochmia phaeton (crimson finch), a sedentary, tropical passerine, for reproductive success and survival ove...

  4. Weaknesses in executive functioning predict the initiating of adolescents' alcohol use.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peeters, Margot; Janssen, Tim; Monshouwer, Karin; Boendermaker, Wouter; Pronk, Thomas; Wiers, Reinout; Vollebergh, Wilma

    2015-12-01

    Recently, it has been suggested that impairments in executive functioning might be risk factors for the onset of alcohol use rather than a result of heavy alcohol use. In the present study, we examined whether two aspects of executive functioning, working memory and response inhibition, predicted the first alcoholic drink and first binge drinking episode in young adolescents using discrete survival analyses. Adolescents were selected from several Dutch secondary schools including both mainstream and special education (externalizing behavioral problems). Participants were 534 adolescents between 12 and 14 years at baseline. Executive functioning and alcohol use were assessed four times over a period of two years. Working memory uniquely predicted the onset of first drink (p=.01) and first binge drinking episode (p=.04) while response inhibition only uniquely predicted the initiating of the first drink (p=.01). These results suggest that the association of executive functioning and alcohol consumption found in former studies cannot simply be interpreted as an effect of alcohol consumption, as weaknesses in executive functioning, found in alcohol naïve adolescents, predict the initiating of (binge) drinking. Though, prolonged and heavy alcohol use might further weaken already existing deficiencies. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  5. Initial growth of Bauhinia variegata trees under different colored shade nets and light conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Renata Bachin Mazzini-Guedes

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Bauhinia variegata and B. variegata var. candida, commonly known as orchid trees, are small sized trees widely used for urban forestry and landscaping. Adult plants grow under full sun; in Brazil, however, seedlings are generally cultivated in commercial nurseries under natural half-shading. The objective of this study was to evaluate the influence of different colored shade nets and light conditions on the initial growth of B. variegata and B. variegata var. candida. The influence of six light conditions (red net with 50% shading; blue net with 50% shading; black net with 70% shading; black net with 50% shading; black net with 30% shading; and full sun on the initial growth of B. variegata and B. variegata var. candida were evaluated along 160 days, and growth relationships were calculated. Seedlings showed more efficiency on the use of photoassimilated compounds when grown under full sun. Such condition is the most appropriate for seedling production of B. variegata and B. variegata var. candida, contradicting what has been performed in practice.

  6. Serum albumin level predicts initial intravenous immunoglobulin treatment failure in Kawasaki disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuo, Ho-Chang; Liang, Chi-Di; Wang, Chih-Lu; Yu, Hong-Ren; Hwang, Kao-Pin; Yang, Kuender D

    2010-10-01

    Kawasaki disease (KD) is a systemic vasculitis primarily affecting children who are initial IVIG treatment. This study was conducted to investigate the risk factors for initial IVIG treatment failure in KD. Children who met KD diagnosis criteria and were admitted for IVIG treatment were retrospectively enrolled for analysis. Patients were divided into IVIG-responsive and IVIG-resistant groups. Initial laboratory data before IVIG treatment were collected for analysis. A total of 131 patients were enrolled during the study period. At 48 h after completion of initial IVIG treatment, 20 patients (15.3%) had an elevated body temperature. Univariate analysis showed that patients who had initial findings of high neutrophil count, abnormal liver function, low serum albumin level (≤2.9 g/dL) and pericardial effusion were at risk for IVIG treatment failure. Multivariate analysis with a logistic regression procedure showed that serum albumin level was considered the independent predicting factor of IVIG resistance in patients with KD (p = 0.006, OR = 40, 95% CI: 52.8-562). There was no significant correlation between age, gender, fever duration before IVIG treatment, haemoglobin level, total leucocyte and platelet counts, C-reactive protein level, or sterile pyuria and initial IVIG treatment failure. The specificity and sensitivity for prediction of IVIG treatment failure in this study were 96% and 34%, respectively. Pre-IVIG treatment serum albumin levels are a useful predictor of IVIG resistance in patients with KD. © 2010 The Author(s)/Journal Compilation © 2010 Foundation Acta Paediatrica.

  7. Time dependency of the prediction skill for the North Atlantic subpolar gyre in initialized decadal hindcasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brune, Sebastian; Düsterhus, André; Pohlmann, Holger; Müller, Wolfgang A.; Baehr, Johanna

    2017-11-01

    We analyze the time dependency of decadal hindcast skill in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre within the time period 1961-2013. We compare anomaly correlation coefficients and temporal interquartile ranges of total upper ocean heat content and sea surface temperature for three differently initialized sets of hindcast simulations with the global coupled model MPI-ESM. All initializations use weakly coupled assimilation with the same full value nudging in the atmospheric component and different assimilation techniques for oceanic temperature and salinity: (1) ensemble Kalman filter assimilating EN4 observations and HadISST data, (2) nudging of anomalies to ORAS4 reanalysis, (3) nudging of full values to ORAS4 reanalysis. We find that hindcast skill depends strongly on the evaluation time period, with higher hindcast skill during strong multiyear trends, especially during the warming in the 1990s and lower hindcast skill in the absence of such trends. Differences between the prediction systems are more pronounced when investigating any 20-year subperiod within the entire hindcast period. In the ensemble Kalman filter initialized hindcasts, we find significant correlation skill for up to 5-8 lead years, albeit along with an overestimation of the temporal interquartile range. In the hindcasts initialized by anomaly nudging, significant correlation skill for lead years greater than two is only found in the 1980s and 1990s. In the hindcasts initialized by full value nudging, correlation skill is consistently lower than in the hindcasts initialized by anomaly nudging in the first lead years with re-emerging skill thereafter. The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation reacts on the density changes introduced by oceanic nudging, this limits the predictability in the subpolar gyre in the first lead years. Overall, we find that a model-consistent assimilation technique can improve hindcast skill. Further, the evaluation of 20 year subperiods within the full hindcast period

  8. Reduction of damage initiation density in fused silica optics via UV laser conditioning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peterson, John E.; Maricle, Stephen M.; Brusasco, Raymond M.; Penetrante, Bernardino M.

    2004-03-16

    The present invention provides a method for reducing the density of sites on the surface of fused silica optics that are prone to the initiation of laser-induced damage, resulting in optics which have far fewer catastrophic defects and are better capable of resisting optical deterioration upon exposure for a long period of time to a high-power laser beam having a wavelength of about 360 nm or less. The initiation of laser-induced damage is reduced by conditioning the optic at low fluences below levels that normally lead to catastrophic growth of damage. When the optic is then irradiated at its high fluence design limit, the concentration of catastrophic damage sites that form on the surface of the optic is greatly reduced.

  9. Theoretical predictions of arsenic and selenium species under atmospheric conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Monahan-Pendergast, M.T.; Przybylek, M.; Lindblad, M.; Wilcox, J. [Worcester Polytechnic Institute, Worcester, MA (United States). Dept. of Chemical Engineering

    2008-03-15

    Thermochemical properties of arsenic and selenium species thought to be released into the atmosphere during the coal combustion were examined using ab initio methods. At various levels of theory, calculated geometries and vibrational frequencies of the species were compared with experimental data, where available. Through a comparison of equilibrium constants for a series of gaseous arsenic and selenium oxidation reactions involving OH and HO{sub 2}, five thermodynamically favored reactions were found. In addition, it was determined that all favored reactions were more likely to go to completion tinder tropospheric, rather than stratospheric, conditions.

  10. An experimental seasonal hydrological forecasting system over the Yellow River basin - Part 1: Understanding the role of initial hydrological conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Xing; Ma, Feng; Wang, Linying; Zheng, Ziyan; Ma, Zhuguo; Ye, Aizhong; Peng, Shaoming

    2016-06-01

    The hydrological cycle over the Yellow River has been altered by the climate change and human interventions greatly during past decades, with a decadal drying trend mixed with a large variation of seasonal hydrological extremes. To provide support for the adaptation to a changing environment, an experimental seasonal hydrological forecasting system is established over the Yellow River basin. The system draws from a legacy of a global hydrological forecasting system that is able to make use of real-time seasonal climate predictions from North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME) climate models through a statistical downscaling approach but with a higher resolution and a spatially disaggregated calibration procedure that is based on a newly compiled hydrological observation dataset with 5 decades of naturalized streamflow at 12 mainstream gauges and a newly released meteorological observation dataset including 324 meteorological stations over the Yellow River basin. While the evaluation of the NMME-based seasonal hydrological forecasting will be presented in a companion paper to explore the added values from climate forecast models, this paper investigates the role of initial hydrological conditions (ICs) by carrying out 6-month Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) and reverse ESP-type simulations for each calendar month during 1982-2010 with the hydrological models in the forecasting system, i.e., a large-scale land surface hydrological model and a global routing model that is regionalized over the Yellow River. In terms of streamflow predictability, the ICs outweigh the meteorological forcings up to 2-5 months during the cold and dry seasons, but the latter prevails over the former in the predictability after the first month during the warm and wet seasons. For the streamflow forecasts initialized at the end of the rainy season, the influence of ICs for lower reaches of the Yellow River can be 5 months longer than that for the upper reaches, while such a difference

  11. Chimera states and the interplay between initial conditions and non-local coupling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalle, Peter; Sawicki, Jakub; Zakharova, Anna; Schöll, Eckehard

    2017-03-01

    Chimera states are complex spatio-temporal patterns that consist of coexisting domains of coherent and incoherent dynamics. We study chimera states in a network of non-locally coupled Stuart-Landau oscillators. We investigate the impact of initial conditions in combination with non-local coupling. Based on an analytical argument, we show how the coupling phase and the coupling strength are linked to the occurrence of chimera states, flipped profiles of the mean phase velocity, and the transition from a phase- to an amplitude-mediated chimera state.

  12. Initial conditions for slow-roll inflation in a random Gaussian landscape

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Masoumi, Ali; Vilenkin, Alexander; Yamada, Masaki, E-mail: ali@cosmos.phy.tufts.edu, E-mail: vilenkin@cosmos.phy.tufts.edu, E-mail: Masaki.Yamada@tufts.edu [Institute of Cosmology, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Tufts University, Medford, MA 02155 (United States)

    2017-07-01

    In the landscape perspective, our Universe begins with a quantum tunneling from an eternally-inflating parent vacuum, followed by a period of slow-roll inflation. We investigate the tunneling process and calculate the probability distribution for the initial conditions and for the number of e-folds of slow-roll inflation, modeling the landscape by a small-field one-dimensional random Gaussian potential. We find that such a landscape is fully consistent with observations, but the probability for future detection of spatial curvature is rather low, P ∼ 10{sup −3}.

  13. Necessary conditions for the initiation and propagation of nuclear-detonation waves in plane atmospheres

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weaver, T.A.; Wood, L.

    1979-01-01

    The basic conditions for the initiation of a nuclear-detonation wave in an atmosphere having plane symmetry (e.g., a thin, layered fluid envelope on a planet or star) are developed. Two classes of such a detonation are identified: those in which the temperature of the plasma is comparable to that of the electromagnetic radiation permeating it, and those in which the temperature of the plasma is much higher. Necessary conditions are developed for the propagation of such detonation waves for an arbitrarily great distance. The contribution of fusion chain reactions to these processes is evaluated. By means of these considerations, it is shown that neither the atmosphere nor oceans of the Earth may be made to undergo propagating nuclear detonation under any circumstances

  14. INITIAL TEST WELL CONDITIONING AT NOPAL I URANIUM DEPOSIT, SIERRA PENA BLANCA, CHIHUAHUA, MEXICO

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    R.D. Oliver; J.C. Dinsmoor; S.J. Goldstein; I. Reyes; R. De La Garza

    2005-07-11

    Three test wells, PB-1, PB-2, and PB-3, were drilled at the Nopal I uranium deposit as part of a natural analogue study to evaluate radionuclide transport processes during March-April 2003. The initial pumping to condition the wells was completed during December 2003. The PB-1 well, drilled immediately adjacent to the Nopal I ore body, was continuously cored to a depth of 250 m, terminating 20 m below the top of the measured water level. The PB-2 and PB-3 wells, which were drilled on opposite sides of PB-1 at a radial distance of approximately 40 to 50 m outside of the remaining projected ore body, were also drilled to about 20 m below the top of the measured water level. Each test well was completed with 4-inch (10.2-cm) diameter PVC casing with a slotted liner below the water table. Initial conditioning of all three wells using a submersible pump at low pump rates [less than 1 gallon (3.8 1) per minute] resulted in measurable draw down and recoveries. The greatest drawdown ({approx}15 m) was observed in PB-2, whereas only minor (<1 m) drawdown occurred in PB-3. For PB-1 and PB-2, the water turbidity decreased as the wells were pumped and the pH values decreased, indicating that the contamination from the drilling fluid was reduced as the wells were conditioned. Test wells PB-1 and PB-2 showed increased inflow after several borehole volumes of fluid were removed, but their inflow rates remained less that the pumping rate. Test well PB-3 showed the smallest drawdown and least change in pH and conductivity during initial pumping and quickest recovery with a rise in measured water level after conditioning. The 195 gallons (750 l) of water pumped from PB-3 during conditioning was discharged through a household sponge. That sponge showed measurable gamma radiation, which decayed to background values in less than 12 hours. Preliminary interpretations include filtration of a radioisotope source with a short half-life or of a radioisotope that volatized as the sponge

  15. INITIAL TEST WELL CONDITIONING AT NOPAL I URANIUM DEPOSIT, SIERRA PENA BLANCA, CHIHUAHUA, MEXICO

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oliver, R.D.; Dinsmoor, J.C.; Goldstein, S.J.; Reyes, I.; De La Garza, R.

    2005-01-01

    Three test wells, PB-1, PB-2, and PB-3, were drilled at the Nopal I uranium deposit as part of a natural analogue study to evaluate radionuclide transport processes during March-April 2003. The initial pumping to condition the wells was completed during December 2003. The PB-1 well, drilled immediately adjacent to the Nopal I ore body, was continuously cored to a depth of 250 m, terminating 20 m below the top of the measured water level. The PB-2 and PB-3 wells, which were drilled on opposite sides of PB-1 at a radial distance of approximately 40 to 50 m outside of the remaining projected ore body, were also drilled to about 20 m below the top of the measured water level. Each test well was completed with 4-inch (10.2-cm) diameter PVC casing with a slotted liner below the water table. Initial conditioning of all three wells using a submersible pump at low pump rates [less than 1 gallon (3.8 1) per minute] resulted in measurable draw down and recoveries. The greatest drawdown (∼15 m) was observed in PB-2, whereas only minor (<1 m) drawdown occurred in PB-3. For PB-1 and PB-2, the water turbidity decreased as the wells were pumped and the pH values decreased, indicating that the contamination from the drilling fluid was reduced as the wells were conditioned. Test wells PB-1 and PB-2 showed increased inflow after several borehole volumes of fluid were removed, but their inflow rates remained less that the pumping rate. Test well PB-3 showed the smallest drawdown and least change in pH and conductivity during initial pumping and quickest recovery with a rise in measured water level after conditioning. The 195 gallons (750 l) of water pumped from PB-3 during conditioning was discharged through a household sponge. That sponge showed measurable gamma radiation, which decayed to background values in less than 12 hours. Preliminary interpretations include filtration of a radioisotope source with a short half-life or of a radioisotope that volatized as the sponge dried

  16. Predictive Models for Photovoltaic Electricity Production in Hot Weather Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jabar H. Yousif

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The process of finding a correct forecast equation for photovoltaic electricity production from renewable sources is an important matter, since knowing the factors affecting the increase in the proportion of renewable energy production and reducing the cost of the product has economic and scientific benefits. This paper proposes a mathematical model for forecasting energy production in photovoltaic (PV panels based on a self-organizing feature map (SOFM model. The proposed model is compared with other models, including the multi-layer perceptron (MLP and support vector machine (SVM models. Moreover, a mathematical model based on a polynomial function for fitting the desired output is proposed. Different practical measurement methods are used to validate the findings of the proposed neural and mathematical models such as mean square error (MSE, mean absolute error (MAE, correlation (R, and coefficient of determination (R2. The proposed SOFM model achieved a final MSE of 0.0007 in the training phase and 0.0005 in the cross-validation phase. In contrast, the SVM model resulted in a small MSE value equal to 0.0058, while the MLP model achieved a final MSE of 0.026 with a correlation coefficient of 0.9989, which indicates a strong relationship between input and output variables. The proposed SOFM model closely fits the desired results based on the R2 value, which is equal to 0.9555. Finally, the comparison results of MAE for the three models show that the SOFM model achieved a best result of 0.36156, whereas the SVM and MLP models yielded 4.53761 and 3.63927, respectively. A small MAE value indicates that the output of the SOFM model closely fits the actual results and predicts the desired output.

  17. Initiation and inhibition of pitting corrosion on reinforcing steel under natural corrosion conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abd El Wanees, S., E-mail: s_wanees@yahoo.com [Chemistry Department, Faculty of Science, University of Tabuk, Tabuk (Saudi Arabia); Chemistry Department, Faculty of Science, Zagazig University, Zagazig 44519 (Egypt); Bahgat Radwan, A. [Center for Advanced Materials, Qatar University, Doha 2713 (Qatar); Alsharif, M.A. [Chemistry Department, Faculty of Science, University of Tabuk, Tabuk (Saudi Arabia); Abd El Haleem, S.M. [Chemistry Department, Faculty of Science, Zagazig University, Zagazig 44519 (Egypt)

    2017-04-01

    Initiation and inhibition of pitting corrosion on reinforcing steel in saturated, naturally aerated Ca(OH){sub 2} solutions, under natural corrosion conditions, are followed through measurements of corrosion current, electrochemical impedance spectroscopy and SEM investigation. Induction period for pit initiation and limiting corrosion current for pit propagation are found to depend on aggressive salt anion and cation-types, as well as, concentration. Ammonium chlorides and sulfates are more corrosive than the corresponding sodium salts. Benzotriazole and two of its derivatives are found to be good inhibitors for pitting corrosion of reinforcing steel. Adsorption of these compounds follows a Langmuir adsorption isotherm. The thermodynamic functions ΔE{sup ∗}, ΔH{sup ∗} and ΔS{sup ∗} for pitting corrosion processes in the absence and presence of inhibitor are calculated and discussed. - Highlights: • Cl{sup −} and SO{sub 4} {sup 2-} induce pitting corrosion on passive reinforcing steel. • Initiation and propagation of pitting depend on cation and anion types. • Inhibition is based on adsorption according to Langmuir isotherm.

  18. Initial growth of Costus longebracteolatus and Costus spiralis ‘French Kiss’ under different light conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Renata Bachin Mazzini-Guedes

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The Brazilian native Costus longebracteolatus and Costus spiralis ‘French Kiss’, in the family Costaceae, have been used as both cut flowers and cut foliage. It is known that Costus species grow better under partial shade, but studies on the influence of shading or light on plant growth, development, and flower production are still incipient. As this kind of information is essential on planning of planting, production, and agribusiness activities, the objective of this research was to evaluate the influence of different colored shade nets and light conditions on the initial growth of both C. longebracteolatus and C. spiralis ‘French Kiss’. Plants, obtained from cuttings of pseudostems, were cultivated under six light conditions, which comprised six treatments, along 270 days: red net with 50% shading, blue net with 50% shading, black net with 70% shading, black net with 50% shading, black net with 30% shading, and full sun. The initial growth of C. longebracteolatus (up to 270 days is more successful under the blue net with 50% shading, which promoted highest values of pseudostem length and dry matter of aerial part. For C. spiralis ‘French Kiss’ plants, both the red and blue nets with 50% shading implied best results and differed for the other treatments with greater pseudostem length. Plant exposure to full sun inhibited growth and development, and favored early leaf necrosis.

  19. Importance of initial buoyancy field on evolution of mantle thermal structure: Implications of surface boundary conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petar Glišović

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Although there has been significant progress in the seismic imaging of mantle heterogeneity, the outstanding issue that remains to be resolved is the unknown distribution of mantle temperature anomalies in the distant geological past that give rise to the present-day anomalies inferred by global tomography models. To address this question, we present 3-D convection models in compressible and self-gravitating mantle initialised by different hypothetical temperature patterns. A notable feature of our forward convection modelling is the use of self-consistent coupling of the motion of surface tectonic plates to the underlying mantle flow, without imposing prescribed surface velocities (i.e., plate-like boundary condition. As an approximation for the surface mechanical conditions before plate tectonics began to operate we employ the no-slip (rigid boundary condition. A rigid boundary condition demonstrates that the initial thermally-dominated structure is preserved, and its geographical location is fixed during the evolution of mantle flow. Considering the impact of different assumed surface boundary conditions (rigid and plate-like on the evolution of thermal heterogeneity in the mantle we suggest that the intrinsic buoyancy of seven superplumes is most-likely resolved in the tomographic images of present-day mantle thermal structure. Our convection simulations with a plate-like boundary condition reveal that the evolution of an initial cold anomaly beneath the Java-Indonesian trench system yields a long-term, stable pattern of thermal heterogeneity in the lowermost mantle that resembles the present-day Large Low Shear Velocity Provinces (LLSVPs, especially below the Pacific. The evolution of subduction zones may be, however, influenced by the mantle-wide flow driven by deeply-rooted and long-lived superplumes since Archean times. These convection models also detect the intrinsic buoyancy of the Perm Anomaly that has been identified as a unique

  20. High burnup fuel onset conditions in dry storage. Prediction of EOL rod internal pressure

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Feria, F.; Herranz, L.E.

    2015-07-01

    During dry storage, cladding resistance to failure can be affected by several degrading mechanisms like creep or hydrides radial reorientation. The driving force of these effects is the stress at which the cladding is submitted. The maximum stress in the cladding is determined by the end-of-reactor-life (EOL) rod internal pressure, PEOL, at the maximum temperature attained during dry storage. Thus, PEOL sets the initial conditions of storage for potential time-dependent changes in the cladding. Based on FRAPCON-3.5 calculations, the aim of this work is to analyse the PEOL of a PWR fuel rod irradiated to burnups greater than 60 GWd/tU, where limited information is available. In order to be conservative, demanding irradiation histories have been used with a peak linear power of 44 kW/m. FRAPCON-3.5 results show an increasing exponential trend of PEOL with burnup, from which a simple correlation has been derived. The comparison with experimental data found in the literature confirms the enveloping nature of the predicted curve. Based on that, a conservative prediction of cladding stress in dry storage has been obtained. The comparison with a critical stress threshold related to hydrides embrittlement seems to point out that this issue should not be a concern at burnups below 65 GWd/tU. (Author)

  1. TRANSFORMATION OF ECONOMY IN THE CONDITIONS OF FORMING THE NATIONAL TECHNOLOGICAL INITIATIVE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena Sibirskaya

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The relevance of the study is conditioned by the need for a clear idea about the upcoming transformation of the Russian economy for implementing the national technology initiative (NTI. Today, Russia is facing a “challenge of development”, which determines the necessity of transition to breakthrough scientific and technological development as a major strategic objective for the future, which definitely determines further socio-economic development. In his address to the Federal Assembly of December 4, 2014, Russian President Vladimir Putin outlined the National technology initiative to be one of the priorities of state policy. “On the basis of long-term forecasting it is necessary to understand what challenges Russia will face in 10-15 years, what advanced solutions will be required in order to ensure national security, high quality of life, development of new technological order” (from the message to the Federal Assembly [6]. The response to this challenge is the National technology initiative, aimed at developing a robust creative and business environment that allows to convert technological breakthroughs to new markets into an element of the system of continuous reproduction of income, human and technological capital. Information base of the research includes legal documents of the Government of the Russian Federation, the official publications under the project office of STI, reports of Russian Academy of Sciences, developments of the Expert Council under the government of the Russian Federation and Agency for strategic initiatives, Federal Agency of scientific organizations, research groups, individual scientists and specialists, Internet resources and the authors’ own developments. The first systematic and methodologically coherent statement of the ideology of economy transformation in the conditions of forming national technological initiative is presented in the report “Framework of the National technology initiative” of

  2. Initial uncertainty in Pavlovian reward prediction persistently elevates incentive salience and extends sign-tracking to normally unattractive cues.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, Mike J F; Anselme, Patrick; Fischer, Adam M; Berridge, Kent C

    2014-06-01

    Uncertainty is a component of many gambling games and may play a role in incentive motivation and cue attraction. Uncertainty can increase the attractiveness for predictors of reward in the Pavlovian procedure of autoshaping, visible as enhanced sign-tracking (or approach and nibbles) by rats of a metal lever whose sudden appearance acts as a conditioned stimulus (CS+) to predict sucrose pellets as an unconditioned stimulus (UCS). Here we examined how reward uncertainty might enhance incentive salience as sign-tracking both in intensity and by broadening the range of attractive CS+s. We also examined whether initially induced uncertainty enhancements of CS+ attraction can endure beyond uncertainty itself, and persist even when Pavlovian prediction becomes 100% certain. Our results show that uncertainty can broaden incentive salience attribution to make CS cues attractive that would otherwise not be (either because they are too distal from reward or too risky to normally attract sign-tracking). In addition, uncertainty enhancement of CS+ incentive salience, once induced by initial exposure, persisted even when Pavlovian CS-UCS correlations later rose toward 100% certainty in prediction. Persistence suggests an enduring incentive motivation enhancement potentially relevant to gambling, which in some ways resembles incentive-sensitization. Higher motivation to uncertain CS+s leads to more potent attraction to these cues when they predict the delivery of uncertain rewards. In humans, those cues might possibly include the sights and sounds associated with gambling, which contribute a major component of the play immersion experienced by problematic gamblers. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Is Romantic Desire Predictable? Machine Learning Applied to Initial Romantic Attraction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joel, Samantha; Eastwick, Paul W; Finkel, Eli J

    2017-10-01

    Matchmaking companies and theoretical perspectives on close relationships suggest that initial attraction is, to some extent, a product of two people's self-reported traits and preferences. We used machine learning to test how well such measures predict people's overall tendencies to romantically desire other people (actor variance) and to be desired by other people (partner variance), as well as people's desire for specific partners above and beyond actor and partner variance (relationship variance). In two speed-dating studies, romantically unattached individuals completed more than 100 self-report measures about traits and preferences that past researchers have identified as being relevant to mate selection. Each participant met each opposite-sex participant attending a speed-dating event for a 4-min speed date. Random forests models predicted 4% to 18% of actor variance and 7% to 27% of partner variance; crucially, however, they were unable to predict relationship variance using any combination of traits and preferences reported before the dates. These results suggest that compatibility elements of human mating are challenging to predict before two people meet.

  4. T2 map signal variation predicts symptomatic osteoarthritis progression: data from the Osteoarthritis Initiative

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhong, Haoti; Miller, David J. [The Pennsylvania State University, Department of Electrical Engineering, University Park, PA (United States); Urish, Kenneth L. [Magee Womens Hospital of the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center, The Bone and Joint Center, Pittsburgh, PA (United States); University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine, Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, Pittsburgh, PA (United States)

    2016-07-15

    The aim of this work is to use quantitative magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) to identify patients at risk for symptomatic osteoarthritis (OA) progression. We hypothesized that classification of signal variation on T2 maps might predict symptomatic OA progression. Patients were selected from the Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI), a prospective cohort. Two groups were identified: a symptomatic OA progression group and a control group. At baseline, both groups were asymptomatic (Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Arthritis [WOMAC] pain score total <10) with no radiographic evidence of OA (Kellgren-Lawrence [KL] score ≤ 1). The OA progression group (n = 103) had a change in total WOMAC score greater than 10 by the 3-year follow-up. The control group (n = 79) remained asymptomatic, with a change in total WOMAC score less than 10 at the 3-year follow-up. A classifier was designed to predict OA progression in an independent population based on T2 map cartilage signal variation. The classifier was designed using a nearest neighbor classification based on a Gaussian Mixture Model log-likelihood fit of T2 map cartilage voxel intensities. The use of T2 map signal variation to predict symptomatic OA progression in asymptomatic individuals achieved a specificity of 89.3 %, a sensitivity of 77.2 %, and an overall accuracy rate of 84.2 %. T2 map signal variation can predict symptomatic knee OA progression in asymptomatic individuals, serving as a possible early OA imaging biomarker. (orig.)

  5. Rescattering effects on intensity interferometry and initial conditions in relativistic heavy ion collisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yang

    The properties of the quark-gluon plasma are being thoroughly studied by utilizing relativistic heavy ion collisions. After its invention in astronomy in the 1950s, intensity interferometry was found to be a robust method to probe the spatial and temporal information of the nuclear collisions also. Although rescattering effects are negligible in elementary particle collisions, it may be very important for heavy ion collisions at RHIC and in the future LHC. Rescattering after production will modify the measured correlation function and make it harder to extract the dynamical information from data. To better understand the data which are dimmed by this final state process, we derive a general formula for intensity interferometry which can calculate rescattering effects easily. The formula can be used both non-relativistically and relativistically. Numerically, we found that rescattering effects on kaon interferometry for RHIC experiments can modify the measured ratio of the outward radius to the sideward radius, which is a sensitive probe to the equation of state, by as large as 15%. It is a nontrivial contribution which should be included to understand the data more accurately. The second part of this thesis is on the initial conditions in relativistic heavy ion collisions. Although relativistic hydrodynamics is successful in explaining many aspects of the data, it is only valid after some finite time after nuclear contact. The results depend on the choice of initial conditions which, so far, have been very uncertain. I describe a formula based on the McLerran-Venugopalan model to compute the initial energy density. The soft gluon fields produced immediately after the overlap of the nuclei can be expanded as a power series of the proper time t. Solving Yang-Mills equations with color current conservation can give us the analytical formulas for the fields. The local color charges on the transverse plane are stochastic variables and have to be taken care of by random

  6. Do personality traits predict outcome of psychodynamically oriented psychosomatic inpatient treatment beyond initial symptoms?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steinert, Christiane; Klein, Susanne; Leweke, Frank; Leichsenring, Falk

    2015-03-01

    Whether personality characteristics have an impact on treatment outcome is an important question in psychotherapy research. One of the most common approaches for the description of personality is the five-factor model of personality. Only few studies investigated whether patient personality as measured with the NEO-Five-Factor Inventory (NEO-FFI, Costa & McCrae [1992b]. Revised NEO-PI-R and NEO-FFI. Professional manual. Odessa, FL: Psychological Assessment Recources) predicts outcome. Results were inconsistent. Studies reporting personality to be predictive of outcome did not control for baseline symptoms, while studies controlling initial symptoms could not support these findings. We hypothesized that after taking into account baseline symptoms, the NEO-FFI would not predict outcome and tested this in a large sample of inpatients at a psychosomatic clinic. Naturalistic, non-controlled study using patients' data for multiple regression analysis to identify predictors of outcome. Data of 254 inpatients suffering primarily from depressive, anxiety, stress, and somatoform disorders were analysed. Personality was assessed at the beginning of therapy. For psychotherapy outcome, changes in anxiety and depression (Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale; HADS), overall psychopathology (Symptom Checklist-90-R Global Severity Index [GSI]), and interpersonal problems (Inventory of Interpersonal Problems; IIP) were measured. The treatment resulted in significant decreases on all outcome measures corresponding to moderate to large effect sizes (HADS: d = 1.03; GSI: d = 0.90; IIP: d = 0.38). Consistent with our hypothesis, none of the personality domains predicted outcome when baseline symptoms were controlled for. Personality assessment at baseline does not seem to have an added value in the prediction of inpatient psychotherapy outcome beyond initial symptoms. Clinical implications Personality dimensions overlap with symptomatic distress. Rather than serve as predictors of

  7. A simple method to calculate first-passage time densities with arbitrary initial conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nyberg, Markus; Ambjörnsson, Tobias; Lizana, Ludvig

    2016-06-01

    Numerous applications all the way from biology and physics to economics depend on the density of first crossings over a boundary. Motivated by the lack of general purpose analytical tools for computing first-passage time densities (FPTDs) for complex problems, we propose a new simple method based on the independent interval approximation (IIA). We generalise previous formulations of the IIA to include arbitrary initial conditions as well as to deal with discrete time and non-smooth continuous time processes. We derive a closed form expression for the FPTD in z and Laplace-transform space to a boundary in one dimension. Two classes of problems are analysed in detail: discrete time symmetric random walks (Markovian) and continuous time Gaussian stationary processes (Markovian and non-Markovian). Our results are in good agreement with Langevin dynamics simulations.

  8. On the initial condition problem of the time domain PMCHWT surface integral equation

    KAUST Repository

    Uysal, Ismail Enes

    2017-05-13

    Non-physical, linearly increasing and constant current components are induced in marching on-in-time solution of time domain surface integral equations when initial conditions on time derivatives of (unknown) equivalent currents are not enforced properly. This problem can be remedied by solving the time integral of the surface integral for auxiliary currents that are defined to be the time derivatives of the equivalent currents. Then the equivalent currents are obtained by numerically differentiating the auxiliary ones. In this work, this approach is applied to the marching on-in-time solution of the time domain Poggio-Miller-Chan-Harrington-Wu-Tsai surface integral equation enforced on dispersive/plasmonic scatterers. Accuracy of the proposed method is demonstrated by a numerical example.

  9. RECREATION MONITORING OF RESOURCE CONDITIONS IN THE KRONOTSKY STATE NATURAL BIOSPHERE PRESERVE (KAMCHATKA: AN INITIAL ASSESSMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Zavadskaya

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper describes assessment and monitoring program which has been designed and initiated for monitoring recreational impacts in some wildernesses areas of Kamchatka. The framework of the recreational assessment was tested through its application in a case study conducted during the summer 2008 in the Kronotsky State Natural Biosphere Preserve (the Kamchatka peninsula, Russia. The overall objective of the case study was to assess the existing campsite and trail recreation impacts and to establish a network of key sites for the subsequent long-term impact monitoring. The detailed assessment of different components of natural complexes of the Kronotsky State Natural Preserve and the obtained maps of their ecological conditions showed that some sites had been highly disturbed. The results of these works have given rise to a concern that the intensive use of these areas would make an unacceptable impact on the nature. Findings of our initial work corroborate the importance of founding wilderness management programs on knowledge about the trail and campsite impacts and emphasize the necessity of adopting the recreational assessment and monitoring framework to the practice of decision-making.

  10. Influence of the initial state of carbon nanotubes on their colloidal stability under natural conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schwyzer, Irene; Kaegi, Ralf; Sigg, Laura; Magrez, Arnaud; Nowack, Bernd

    2011-01-01

    The colloidal stability of dry and suspended carbon nanotubes (CNTs) in the presence of amphiphilic compounds (i.e. natural organic matter or surfactants) at environmentally realistic concentrations was investigated over several days. The suspensions were analyzed for CNT concentration (UV-vis spectroscopy), particle size (nanoparticle tracking analysis), and CNT length and dispersion quality (TEM). When added in dry form, around 1% of the added CNTs remained suspended. Pre-dispersion in organic solvent or anionic detergent stabilized up to 65% of the added CNTs after 20 days of mild shaking and 5 days of settling. The initial state of the CNTs (dry vs. suspended) and the medium composition hence are critical determinants for the partitioning of CNTs between sediment and the water column. TEM analysis revealed that single suspended CNTs were present in all suspensions and that shaking and settling resulted in a fractionation of the CNTs with shorter CNTs remaining predominantly in suspension. - Highlights: → Individually suspended CNTs are present under environment relevant conditions. → The number of suspended CNTs varies depending on the medium composition. → Surfactants at environmental concentrations have no suspending effect on dry CNTs. → Pre-dispersed CNTs are more stable in suspension than dry CNTs. - The colloidal stability of CNTs varies a lot depending on the initial state of the CNTs (dry vs. pre-dispersed), the applied dispersant for pre-suspension, and the composition of the medium.

  11. Timing of initial arrival at the breeding site predicts age at first reproduction in a long-lived migratory bird

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becker, Peter H.; Dittmann, Tobias; Ludwigs, Jan-Dieter; Limmer, Bente; Ludwig, Sonja C.; Bauch, Christina; Braasch, Alexander; Wendeln, Helmut

    2008-01-01

    In long-lived vertebrates, individuals generally visit potential breeding areas or populations during one or more seasons before reproducing for the first time. During these years of prospecting, they select a future breeding site, colony, or mate and improve various skills and their physical condition to meet the requirements of reproduction. One precondition of successful reproduction is arrival in time on the breeding grounds. Here, we study the intricate links among the date of initial spring arrival, body mass, sex, and the age of first breeding in the common tern Sterna hirundo, a long-lived migratory colonial seabird. The study is based on a unique, individual-based, long-term dataset of sexed birds, marked with transponders, which allow recording their individual arrival, overall attendance, and clutch initiation remotely and automatically year by year over the entire lifetime at the natal colony site. We show that the seasonal date of initial arrival at the breeding grounds predicts the individual age at first reproduction, which mostly occurs years later. Late first-time arrivals remain delayed birds throughout subsequent years. Our findings reveal that timing of arrival at the site of reproduction and timing of reproduction itself are coherent parameters of individual quality, which are linked with the prospects of the breeding career and may have consequences for fitness. PMID:18711134

  12. Regulatory T cells predict the time to initial treatment in early stage chronic lymphocytic leukemia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weiss, Lukas; Melchardt, Thomas; Egle, Alexander; Grabmer, Christoph; Greil, Richard; Tinhofer, Inge

    2011-05-15

    Early stage chronic lymphocytic leukemia is characterized by a highly variable course of disease. Because it is believed that regulatory T cells (T(regs) ) are potent suppressors of antitumor immunity, the authors hypothesized that increased T(regs) may favor disease progression. T(reg) levels (cluster of differentiation 3 [CD3]-positive, [CD4]-positive, CD25-positive, and CD127-negative) in peripheral blood from 102 patients were analyzed by flow cytometry. Statistical analysis was used to evaluate correlations with clinical data. The relative T(reg) numbers in CD4-positive T cells were significantly greater in patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia compared with the numbers in a control group of 170 healthy individuals (P = .001). Patients were divided into 2 groups using a median T(reg) value of 9.7% (the percentage of CD4-positive T cells). Patients with higher T(reg) levels had a significantly shorter time to initial treatment (median, 5.9 years) compared with patients who had lower T(reg) levels (median, 11.7 years; log-rank P = .019). Furthermore, T(reg) levels (the percentage of CD4-positive T cells) had significant prognostic power to predict the time to initial treatment in univariate analysis (P = .023) and in multivariate Cox regression analysis that included the variables Rai stage, immunoglobulin heavy-chain variable region gene mutational status, chromosomal aberrations, and CD38 expression (P = .028). Higher T(reg) levels had significant and independent prognostic power for predicting the time to initial treatment in patients with low to intermediate stage chronic lymphocytic leukemia. 2010 American Cancer Society.

  13. Gender differences in the factors predicting initial engagement at cardiac rehabilitation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galdas, Paul Michael; Harrison, Alexander Stephen; Doherty, Patrick

    2018-01-01

    To determine whether there are gender differences in the factors that predict attendance at the initial cardiac rehabilitation baseline assessment (CR engagement) after referral. Using data from the National Audit of Cardiac Rehabilitation, we analysed data on 95 638 patients referred to CR following a cardiovascular diagnosis/treatment between 2013 and 2016. Eighteen factors that have been shown in previous research to be important predictors of CR participation were investigated and grouped into four categories: sociodemographic factors, cardiac risk factors, patient medical status and service-level factors. Logistic binary regression models were built for male patients and female patients, assessing the likelihood for CR engagement. Each included predictors such as age, number of comorbidities and social deprivation score. There were no important differences in the factors that predict the likelihood of CR engagement in men and women. Seven factors associated with a reduced probability of CR engagement, and eight factors associated with increased probability, were identified. Fourteen of the 15 factors identified as predicting the likelihood for engagement/non-engagement were the same for both men and women. Increasing age, being South Asian or non-white ethnicity (other than Black) and being single were all associated with a reduced likelihood of attending an initial CR baseline assessment in both men and women. Male patients with diabetes were 11% less likely to engage with CR; however, there was no significant association in women. Results showed that the overwhelmingly important determinant of CR engagement observed in both men and women was receiving an invitation to attend an assessment session (OR 4.223 men/4.033women; pgender differences in predictors of CR uptake should probably be more nuanced and informed by the stage of the patient care pathway.

  14. A study on gap heat transfer of LWR fuel rods under reactivity initiated accident conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fujishiro, Toshio

    1984-03-01

    Gap heat transfer between fuel pellet and cladding have a large influence on the LWR fuel behaviors under reactivity initiated accident (RIA) conditions. The objective of the present study is to investigate the effects of gap heat transfer on RIA fuel behaviors based on the results of the gap-gas parameter tests in NSRR and on their analysis with NSR-77 code. Through this study, transient variations of gap heat transfer, the effects of the gap heat transfer on fuel thermal behaviors and on fuel failure, effects of pellet-cladding sticking by eutectic formation, and the effects of cladding collapse under high external pressure have been clearified. The studies have also been performed on the applicability and its limit of modified Ross and Stoute equation which is extensively utilized to evaluate the gap heat transfer coefficient in the present fuel behavior codes. The method to evaluate the gap conductance to the conditions beyond the applicability limit of the Ross and Stoute equation has also been proposed. (author)

  15. The Advantages of Hybrid 4DEnVar in the Context of the Forecast Sensitivity to Initial Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Hyo-Jong; Shin, Seoleun; Ha, Ji-Hyun; Lim, Sujeong

    2017-11-01

    Hybrid four-dimensional ensemble variational data assimilation (hybrid 4DEnVar) is a prospective successor to three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3DVar) in operational weather prediction centers currently developing a new weather prediction model and those that do not operate adjoint models. In experiments using real observations, hybrid 4DEnVar improved Northern Hemisphere (NH; 20°N-90°N) 500 hPa geopotential height forecasts up to 5 days in a NH summer month compared to 3DVar, with statistical significance. This result is verified against ERA-Interim through a Monte Carlo test. By a regression analysis, the sensitivity of 5 day forecast is associated with the quality of the initial condition. The increased analysis skill for midtropospheric midlatitude temperature and subtropical moisture has the most apparent effect on forecast skill in the NH including a typhoon prediction case. Through attributing the analysis improvements by hybrid 4DEnVar separately to the ensemble background error covariance (BEC), its four-dimensional (4-D) extension, and climatological BEC, it is revealed that the ensemble BEC contributes to the subtropical moisture analysis, whereas the 4-D extension does to the midtropospheric midlatitude temperature. This result implies that hourly wind-mass correlation in 6 h analysis window is required to extract the potential of hybrid 4DEnVar for the midlatitude temperature analysis to the maximum. However, the temporal ensemble correlation, in hourly time scale, between moisture and another variable is invalid so that it could not work for improving the hybrid 4DEnVar analysis.

  16. Hydrological modelling for flood forecasting: Calibrating the post-fire initial conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papathanasiou, C.; Makropoulos, C.; Mimikou, M.

    2015-10-01

    Floods and forest fires are two of the most devastating natural hazards with severe socioeconomic, environmental as well as aesthetic impacts on the affected areas. Traditionally, these hazards are examined from different perspectives and are thus investigated through different, independent systems, overlooking the fact that they are tightly interrelated phenomena. In fact, the same flood event is more severe, i.e. associated with increased runoff discharge and peak flow and decreased time to peak, if it occurs over a burnt area than that occurring over a land not affected by fire. Mediterranean periurban areas, where forests covered with flammable vegetation coexist with agricultural land and urban zones, are typical areas particularly prone to the combined impact of floods and forest fires. Hence, the accurate assessment and effective management of post-fire flood risk becomes an issue of priority. The research presented in this paper aims to develop a robust methodological framework, using state of art tools and modern technologies to support the estimation of the change in time of five representative hydrological parameters for post-fire conditions. The proposed methodology considers both longer- and short-term initial conditions in order to assess the dynamic evolution of the selected parameters. The research focuses on typical Mediterranean periurban areas that are subjected to both hazards and concludes with a set of equations that associate post-fire and pre-fire conditions for five Fire Severity (FS) classes and three soil moisture states. The methodology has been tested for several flood events on the Rafina catchment, a periurban catchment in Eastern Attica (Greece). In order to validate the methodology, simulated hydrographs were produced and compared against available observed data. Results indicate a close convergence of observed and simulated flows. The proposed methodology is particularly flexible and thus easily adaptable to catchments with similar

  17. Vasculogenesis and angiogenesis initiation under normoxic conditions through Wnt/β-catenin pathway in gliomas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vallée, Alexandre; Guillevin, Rémy; Vallée, Jean-Noël

    2018-01-26

    The canonical Wnt/β-catenin pathway is up-regulated in gliomas and involved in proliferation, invasion, apoptosis, vasculogenesis and angiogenesis. Nuclear β-catenin accumulation correlates with malignancy. Hypoxia activates hypoxia-inducible factor (HIF)-1α by inhibiting HIF-1α prolyl hydroxylation, which promotes glycolytic energy metabolism, vasculogenesis and angiogenesis, whereas HIF-1α is degraded by the HIF prolyl hydroxylase under normoxic conditions. We focus this review on the links between the activated Wnt/β-catenin pathway and the mechanisms underlying vasculogenesis and angiogenesis through HIF-1α under normoxic conditions in gliomas. Wnt-induced epidermal growth factor receptor/phosphatidylinositol 3-kinase (PI3K)/Akt signaling, Wnt-induced signal transducers and activators of transcription 3 (STAT3) signaling, and Wnt/β-catenin target gene transduction (c-Myc) can activate HIF-1α in a hypoxia-independent manner. The PI3K/Akt/mammalian target of rapamycin pathway activates HIF-1α through eukaryotic translation initiation factor 4E-binding protein 1 and STAT3. The β-catenin/T-cell factor 4 complex directly binds to STAT3 and activates HIF-1α, which up-regulates the Wnt/β-catenin target genes cyclin D1 and c-Myc in a positive feedback loop. Phosphorylated STAT3 by interleukin-6 or leukemia inhibitory factor activates HIF-1α even under normoxic conditions. The activation of the Wnt/β-catenin pathway induces, via the Wnt target genes c-Myc and cyclin D1 or via HIF-1α, gene transactivation encoding aerobic glycolysis enzymes, such as glucose transporter, hexokinase 2, pyruvate kinase M2, pyruvate dehydrogenase kinase 1 and lactate dehydrogenase-A, leading to lactate production, as the primary alternative of ATP, at all oxygen levels, even in normoxic conditions. Lactate released by glioma cells via the monocarboxylate lactate transporter-1 up-regulated by HIF-1α and lactate anion activates HIF-1α in normoxic endothelial cells by

  18. Effects of Test Conditions on APA Rutting and Prediction Modeling for Asphalt Mixtures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hui Wang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available APA rutting tests were conducted for six kinds of asphalt mixtures under air-dry and immersing conditions. The influences of test conditions, including load, temperature, air voids, and moisture, on APA rutting depth were analyzed by using grey correlation method, and the APA rutting depth prediction model was established. Results show that the modified asphalt mixtures have bigger rutting depth ratios of air-dry to immersing conditions, indicating that the modified asphalt mixtures have better antirutting properties and water stability than the matrix asphalt mixtures. The grey correlation degrees of temperature, load, air void, and immersing conditions on APA rutting depth decrease successively, which means that temperature is the most significant influencing factor. The proposed indoor APA rutting prediction model has good prediction accuracy, and the correlation coefficient between the predicted and the measured rutting depths is 96.3%.

  19. On the appropriate definition of soil profile configuration and initial conditions for land surface-hydrology models in cold regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sapriza-Azuri, Gonzalo; Gamazo, Pablo; Razavi, Saman; Wheater, Howard S.

    2018-06-01

    Arctic and subarctic regions are amongst the most susceptible regions on Earth to global warming and climate change. Understanding and predicting the impact of climate change in these regions require a proper process representation of the interactions between climate, carbon cycle, and hydrology in Earth system models. This study focuses on land surface models (LSMs) that represent the lower boundary condition of general circulation models (GCMs) and regional climate models (RCMs), which simulate climate change evolution at the global and regional scales, respectively. LSMs typically utilize a standard soil configuration with a depth of no more than 4 m, whereas for cold, permafrost regions, field experiments show that attention to deep soil profiles is needed to understand and close the water and energy balances, which are tightly coupled through the phase change. To address this gap, we design and run a series of model experiments with a one-dimensional LSM, called CLASS (Canadian Land Surface Scheme), as embedded in the MESH (Modélisation Environmentale Communautaire - Surface and Hydrology) modelling system, to (1) characterize the effect of soil profile depth under different climate conditions and in the presence of parameter uncertainty; (2) assess the effect of including or excluding the geothermal flux in the LSM at the bottom of the soil column; and (3) develop a methodology for temperature profile initialization in permafrost regions, where the system has an extended memory, by the use of paleo-records and bootstrapping. Our study area is in Norman Wells, Northwest Territories of Canada, where measurements of soil temperature profiles and historical reconstructed climate data are available. Our results demonstrate a dominant role for parameter uncertainty, that is often neglected in LSMs. Considering such high sensitivity to parameter values and dependency on the climate condition, we show that a minimum depth of 20 m is essential to adequately represent

  20. On the appropriate definition of soil profile configuration and initial conditions for land surface–hydrology models in cold regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Sapriza-Azuri

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Arctic and subarctic regions are amongst the most susceptible regions on Earth to global warming and climate change. Understanding and predicting the impact of climate change in these regions require a proper process representation of the interactions between climate, carbon cycle, and hydrology in Earth system models. This study focuses on land surface models (LSMs that represent the lower boundary condition of general circulation models (GCMs and regional climate models (RCMs, which simulate climate change evolution at the global and regional scales, respectively. LSMs typically utilize a standard soil configuration with a depth of no more than 4 m, whereas for cold, permafrost regions, field experiments show that attention to deep soil profiles is needed to understand and close the water and energy balances, which are tightly coupled through the phase change. To address this gap, we design and run a series of model experiments with a one-dimensional LSM, called CLASS (Canadian Land Surface Scheme, as embedded in the MESH (Modélisation Environmentale Communautaire – Surface and Hydrology modelling system, to (1 characterize the effect of soil profile depth under different climate conditions and in the presence of parameter uncertainty; (2 assess the effect of including or excluding the geothermal flux in the LSM at the bottom of the soil column; and (3 develop a methodology for temperature profile initialization in permafrost regions, where the system has an extended memory, by the use of paleo-records and bootstrapping. Our study area is in Norman Wells, Northwest Territories of Canada, where measurements of soil temperature profiles and historical reconstructed climate data are available. Our results demonstrate a dominant role for parameter uncertainty, that is often neglected in LSMs. Considering such high sensitivity to parameter values and dependency on the climate condition, we show that a minimum depth of 20 m is essential to

  1. Body Condition Indices Predict Reproductive Success but Not Survival in a Sedentary, Tropical Bird.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olga Milenkaya

    Full Text Available Body condition may predict individual fitness because those in better condition have more resources to allocate towards improving their fitness. However, the hypothesis that condition indices are meaningful proxies for fitness has been questioned. Here, we ask if intraspecific variation in condition indices predicts annual reproductive success and survival. We monitored a population of Neochmia phaeton (crimson finch, a sedentary, tropical passerine, for reproductive success and survival over four breeding seasons, and sampled them for commonly used condition indices: mass adjusted for body size, muscle and fat scores, packed cell volume, hemoglobin concentration, total plasma protein, and heterophil to lymphocyte ratio. Our study population is well suited for this research because individuals forage in common areas and do not hold territories such that variation in condition between individuals is not confounded by differences in habitat quality. Furthermore, we controlled for factors that are known to impact condition indices in our study population (e.g., breeding stage such that we assessed individual condition relative to others in the same context. Condition indices that reflect energy reserves predicted both the probability of an individual fledging young and the number of young produced that survived to independence, but only during some years. Those that were relatively heavy for their body size produced about three times more independent young compared to light individuals. That energy reserves are a meaningful predictor of reproductive success in a sedentary passerine supports the idea that energy reserves are at least sometimes predictors of fitness. However, hematological indices failed to predict reproductive success and none of the indices predicted survival. Therefore, some but not all condition indices may be informative, but because we found that most indices did not predict any component of fitness, we question the ubiquitous

  2. Body Condition Indices Predict Reproductive Success but Not Survival in a Sedentary, Tropical Bird.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milenkaya, Olga; Catlin, Daniel H; Legge, Sarah; Walters, Jeffrey R

    2015-01-01

    Body condition may predict individual fitness because those in better condition have more resources to allocate towards improving their fitness. However, the hypothesis that condition indices are meaningful proxies for fitness has been questioned. Here, we ask if intraspecific variation in condition indices predicts annual reproductive success and survival. We monitored a population of Neochmia phaeton (crimson finch), a sedentary, tropical passerine, for reproductive success and survival over four breeding seasons, and sampled them for commonly used condition indices: mass adjusted for body size, muscle and fat scores, packed cell volume, hemoglobin concentration, total plasma protein, and heterophil to lymphocyte ratio. Our study population is well suited for this research because individuals forage in common areas and do not hold territories such that variation in condition between individuals is not confounded by differences in habitat quality. Furthermore, we controlled for factors that are known to impact condition indices in our study population (e.g., breeding stage) such that we assessed individual condition relative to others in the same context. Condition indices that reflect energy reserves predicted both the probability of an individual fledging young and the number of young produced that survived to independence, but only during some years. Those that were relatively heavy for their body size produced about three times more independent young compared to light individuals. That energy reserves are a meaningful predictor of reproductive success in a sedentary passerine supports the idea that energy reserves are at least sometimes predictors of fitness. However, hematological indices failed to predict reproductive success and none of the indices predicted survival. Therefore, some but not all condition indices may be informative, but because we found that most indices did not predict any component of fitness, we question the ubiquitous interpretation of

  3. Model predictions and control of conditions in a CA-reefer container

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sman, van der R.G.M.; Verdijck, G.J.C.

    2003-01-01

    In this paper a concept for energy saving for refrigerated container transport is presented. The concept is based on model-predictive control of the set points of the cooling unit. These models predict energy consumption of the cooling unit, climatic conditions inside the cargo space, and the change

  4. Initial Serum Ferritin Predicts Number of Therapeutic Phlebotomies to Iron Depletion in Secondary Iron Overload

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panch, Sandhya R.; Yau, Yu Ying; West, Kamille; Diggs, Karen; Sweigart, Tamsen; Leitman, Susan F.

    2014-01-01

    Background Therapeutic phlebotomy is increasingly used in patients with transfusional siderosis to mitigate organ injury associated with iron overload (IO). Laboratory response parameters and therapy duration are not well characterized in such patients. Methods We retrospectively evaluated 99 consecutive patients undergoing therapeutic phlebotomy for either transfusional IO (TIO, n=88; 76% had undergone hematopoietic transplantation) or non-transfusional indications (hyperferritinemia or erythrocytosis) (n=11). CBC, serum ferritin (SF), transferrin saturation, and transaminases were measured serially. Phlebotomy goal was an SF< 300 mcg/L. Results Mean SF prior to phlebotomy among TIO and nontransfusional subjects was 3,093 and 396 mcg/L, respectively. Transfusion burden in the TIO group was 94 ± 108 (mean ± SD) RBC units; about half completed therapy with 24 ± 23 phlebotomies (range 1–103). One-third was lost to follow-up. Overall, 15% had mild adverse effects, including headache, nausea, and dizziness, mainly during first phlebotomy. Prior transfusion burden correlated poorly with initial ferritin and total number of phlebotomies to target (NPT) in the TIO group. However, NPT was strongly correlated with initial SF (R2=0.8; p<0.0001) in both TIO and nontransfusional groups. ALT decreased significantly with serial phlebotomy in all groups (mean initial and final values, 61 and 39 U/L; p = 0.03). Conclusions Initial SF but not transfusion burden predicted number of phlebotomies to target in patients with TIO. Despite good treatment tolerance, significant losses to follow-up were noted. Providing patients with an estimated phlebotomy number and follow-up duration, and thus a finite endpoint, may improve compliance. Hepatic function improved with iron off-loading. PMID:25209879

  5. Constraints on rapidity-dependent initial conditions from charged-particle pseudorapidity densities and two-particle correlations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ke, Weiyao; Moreland, J. Scott; Bernhard, Jonah E.; Bass, Steffen A.

    2017-10-01

    We study the initial three-dimensional spatial configuration of the quark-gluon plasma (QGP) produced in relativistic heavy-ion collisions using centrality and pseudorapidity-dependent measurements of the medium's charged particle density and two-particle correlations. A cumulant-generating function is first used to parametrize the rapidity dependence of local entropy deposition and extend arbitrary boost-invariant initial conditions to nonzero beam rapidities. The model is then compared to p +Pb and Pb + Pb charged-particle pseudorapidity densities and two-particle pseudorapidity correlations and systematically optimized using Bayesian parameter estimation to extract high-probability initial condition parameters. The optimized initial conditions are then compared to a number of experimental observables including the pseudorapidity-dependent anisotropic flows, event-plane decorrelations, and flow correlations. We find that the form of the initial local longitudinal entropy profile is well constrained by these experimental measurements.

  6. Condition Help: A Patient- and Family-Initiated Rapid Response System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eden, Elizabeth L; Rack, Laurie L; Chen, Ling-Wan; Bump, Gregory M

    2017-03-01

    Rapid response teams (RRTs) help in delivering safe, timely care. Typically they are activated by clinicians using specific parameters. Allowing patients and families to activate RRTs is a novel intervention. The University of Pittsburgh Medical Center developed and implemented a patient- and family-initiated rapid response system called Condition Help (CH). When the CH system is activated, a patient care liaison or an on-duty administrator meets bedside with the unit charge nurse to address the patient's concerns. In this study, we collected demographic data, call reasons, call designations (safety or nonsafety), and outcome information for all CH calls made during the period January 2012 through June 2015. Two hundred forty patients/family members made 367 CH calls during the study period. Most calls were made by patients (76.8%) rather than family members (21.8%). Of the 240 patients, 43 (18%) made multiple calls; their calls accounted for 46.3% of all calls (170/367). Inadequate pain control was the reason for the call in most cases (48.2%), followed by dissatisfaction with staff (12.5%). The majority of calls involved nonsafety issues (83.4%) rather than safety issues (11.4%). In 41.4% of cases, a change in care was made. Patient- and family-initiated RRTs are designed to engage patients and families in providing safer care. In the CH system, safety issues are identified, but the majority of calls involve nonsafety issues. Journal of Hospital Medicine 2017;12:157-161. © 2017 Society of Hospital Medicine

  7. Predictive and prognostic properties of TB-LAM among HIV-positive patients initiating ART in Johannesburg, South Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    d'Elia, Alexander; Evans, Denise; McNamara, Lynne; Berhanu, Rebecca; Sanne, Ian; Lönnermark, Elisabet

    2015-01-01

    While the diagnostic properties of the TB LAM urine assay (LAM) have been well-described, little is known about its predictive and prognostic properties at ART initiation in a routine clinic setting. We describe the predictive and prognostic properties of LAM in HIV-positive patients initiating ART at an urban hospital in Johannesburg, South Africa. Retrospective study of HIV-positive adults (>18 years) who initiated standard first-line ART between February 2012 and April 2013 and had a LAM test at initiation. In HIV-positive patients with no known TB at ART initiation, we assessed the sensitivity, specificity and positive/negative likelihood ratios of LAM to predict incident TB within 6 months of ART initiation. In addition, in patients with a TB diagnosis and on TB treatment ART initiation, we measured the CD4 response at 6 months on ART. Of the 274 patients without TB at ART initiation, 65% were female with median CD4 count of 213 cells/mm(3). Among the 14 (5.1%) patients who developed active TB, none were urine LAM +ve at baseline. LAM had poor sensitivity (0.0% 95% CI 0.00-23.2) to predict incident TB within 6 months of initiation. We analyzed 22 patients with a confirmed TB diagnosis at initiation separately. Of these, LAM +ve patients (27%) showed lower CD4 gains compared to LAM negative patients (median increase 103 vs 199 cells/mm(3); p = 0.08). LAM has limited value for accurately predicting incident TB in patients with higher CD4 counts after ART initiation. LAM may help identify TB/HIV co-infected patients at ART initiation who respond more slowly to treatment and require targeted interventions to improve treatment outcomes. Larger studies with longer patient follow-up are needed.

  8. Stellar mass spectrum within massive collapsing clumps. I. Influence of the initial conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Yueh-Ning; Hennebelle, Patrick

    2018-04-01

    Context. Stars constitute the building blocks of our Universe, and their formation is an astrophysical problem of great importance. Aim. We aim to understand the fragmentation of massive molecular star-forming clumps and the effect of initial conditions, namely the density and the level of turbulence, on the resulting distribution of stars. For this purpose, we conduct numerical experiments in which we systematically vary the initial density over four orders of magnitude and the turbulent velocity over a factor ten. In a companion paper, we investigate the dependence of this distribution on the gas thermodynamics. Methods: We performed a series of hydrodynamical numerical simulations using adaptive mesh refinement, with special attention to numerical convergence. We also adapted an existing analytical model to the case of collapsing clouds by employing a density probability distribution function (PDF) ∝ρ-1.5 instead of a lognormal distribution. Results: Simulations and analytical model both show two support regimes, a thermally dominated regime and a turbulence-dominated regime. For the first regime, we infer that dN/d logM ∝ M0, while for the second regime, we obtain dN/d logM ∝ M-3/4. This is valid up to about ten times the mass of the first Larson core, as explained in the companion paper, leading to a peak of the mass spectrum at 0.2 M⊙. From this point, the mass spectrum decreases with decreasing mass except for the most diffuse clouds, where disk fragmentation leads to the formation of objects down to the mass of the first Larson core, that is, to a few 10-2 M⊙. Conclusions: Although the mass spectra we obtain for the most compact clouds qualitatively resemble the observed initial mass function, the distribution exponent is shallower than the expected Salpeter exponent of - 1.35. Nonetheless, we observe a possible transition toward a slightly steeper value that is broadly compatible with the Salpeter exponent for masses above a few solar masses

  9. Fractal analysis on a classical hard-wall billiard with openings using a two-dimensional set of initial conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ree, Suhan

    2003-01-01

    Fractal analysis is performed to measure the chaoticity of a classical hard-wall billiard with openings. We use the circular billiard with a straight cut with two openings, and a two-dimensional (2D) set of initial conditions that produce all possible trajectories of a particle injected from one opening. We numerically compute the fractal dimension of singular points of the function that maps an initial condition to the number of collisions with the wall before the exit, using the box-counting algorithm that uses uniformly distributed points inside the 2D set of initial conditions. Finally, the classical chaotic properties are observed while the parameters of the billiard are varied, and the results are compared with those with the one-dimensional set of initial conditions

  10. Determination and demarcation of fatigue crack initiation phase in rotating bending condition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pasha, R.A.; Rehman, K.; Shah, M.

    2012-01-01

    In engineering applications, components often experience cyclic loading and therefore, have crack initiation propagation phase. In this research work experimental demarcation of fatigue crack initiation has been investigated. Initiation phase of fatigue life of Aluminium was determined by using single and two step fatigue loading test on four point rotating bending fatigue testing machine. Experimental data is used to determine the distinction between the initiation and propagation phase. Initiation phase is determined at different stress levels. The obtained results demonstrate the effect of stress level on initiation phase and propagation phase. (author)

  11. Maximum Likelihood Method for Predicting Environmental Conditions from Assemblage Composition: The R Package bio.infer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lester L. Yuan

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper provides a brief introduction to the R package bio.infer, a set of scripts that facilitates the use of maximum likelihood (ML methods for predicting environmental conditions from assemblage composition. Environmental conditions can often be inferred from only biological data, and these inferences are useful when other sources of data are unavailable. ML prediction methods are statistically rigorous and applicable to a broader set of problems than more commonly used weighted averaging techniques. However, ML methods require a substantially greater investment of time to program algorithms and to perform computations. This package is designed to reduce the effort required to apply ML prediction methods.

  12. Study on the behavior of waterside corroded PWR fuel rods under reactivity initiated accident conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sasajima, Hideo

    1989-06-01

    One of the highlighted problems from the fuel reliability point of view is a waterside corrosion of fuel cladding which becomes more significant at extended burnup stages. To date, at highly burned fuel, waterside corrosion was recognized as important because cladding oxidation increased with increasing burn-up. In experiments, as the basic research for the study of high burn-up fuel, the test fuel rods were prepressurized to ranges from 3.47 to 3.55 MPa, oxidized artificially to both 10 and 20 μm in thickness. Regarding fabricated oxide thickness of 10 μm, it is corresponded to be transition point from cubic law to linear law as a function of burn-up. Pulse irradiation experiments by NSRR were carried out to study the behavior of waterside corroded PWR type fuels under RIA conditions. Obtained results are: (1) The failure threshold of tested fuels was 110 cal/g·fuel (0.46 KJ/g·fuel) in enthalpy. This showed that the failure threshold of tested fuels was same as that of the past NSRR experimental data. (2) The failure mechanisms of the tested fuel rods was cladding rupture induced by ballooning. No differences in failure mechanisms existed between the past NSRR prepressurized standard fuel and the tested fuels. (3) Cracks were existed without propagating into cladding matrix, so that it was judged that these were not initiation of failure. (4) Whithin this experimental condition, reduction of cladding thickness being attributed to the increase of oxidation did not failure threshold. (author)

  13. High burnup (41 - 61 GWd/tU) BWR fuel behavior under reactivity initiated accident conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nakamura, Takehiko; Kusagaya, Kazuyuki; Yoshinaga, Makio; Uetsuka, Hiroshi [Japan Atomic Energy Research Inst., Tokai, Ibaraki (Japan). Tokai Research Establishment

    2001-12-01

    High burnup boiling water reactor (BWR) fuel was pulse irradiated in the Nuclear Safety Research Reactor (NSRR) to investigate fuel behavior under cold startup reactivity initiated accident (RIA) conditions. Temperature, deformation, failure, and fission gas release behavior under the simulated RIA condition was studied in the tests. Fuel failure due to pellet-cladding mechanical interaction (PCMI) did not occur in the tests with typical domestic BWR fuel at burnups up to 56 GWd/tU, because they had limited cladding embrittlement due to hydrogen absorption of about 100 ppm or less. However, the cladding failure occurred in tests with fuel at a burnup of 61 GWd/tU, in which the peak hydrogen content in the cladding was above 150 ppm. This type of failure was observed for the first time in BWR fuels. The cladding failure occurred at fuel enthalpies of 260 to 360 J/g (62 to 86 cal/g), which were higher than the PCMI failure thresholds decided by the Japanese Nuclear Safety Commission. From post-test examinations of the failed fuel, it was found that the crack in the BWR cladding progressed in a manner different from the one in PWR cladding failed in earlier tests, owing to its more randomly oriented hydride distribution. Because of these differences, the BWR fuel was judged to have failed at hydrogen contents lower than those of the PWR fuel. Comparison of the test results with code calculations revealed that the PCMI failure was caused by thermal expansion of pellets, rather than by the fission gas expansion in the pellets. The gas expansion, however, was found to cause large cladding hoop deformation later after the cladding temperature escalated. (author)

  14. APPLICATION OF SOFT COMPUTING TECHNIQUES FOR PREDICTING COOLING TIME REQUIRED DROPPING INITIAL TEMPERATURE OF MASS CONCRETE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Santosh Bhattarai

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Minimizing the thermal cracks in mass concrete at an early age can be achieved by removing the hydration heat as quickly as possible within initial cooling period before the next lift is placed. Recognizing the time needed to remove hydration heat within initial cooling period helps to take an effective and efficient decision on temperature control plan in advance. Thermal properties of concrete, water cooling parameters and construction parameter are the most influencing factors involved in the process and the relationship between these parameters are non-linear in a pattern, complicated and not understood well. Some attempts had been made to understand and formulate the relationship taking account of thermal properties of concrete and cooling water parameters. Thus, in this study, an effort have been made to formulate the relationship for the same taking account of thermal properties of concrete, water cooling parameters and construction parameter, with the help of two soft computing techniques namely: Genetic programming (GP software “Eureqa” and Artificial Neural Network (ANN. Relationships were developed from the data available from recently constructed high concrete double curvature arch dam. The value of R for the relationship between the predicted and real cooling time from GP and ANN model is 0.8822 and 0.9146 respectively. Relative impact on target parameter due to input parameters was evaluated through sensitivity analysis and the results reveal that, construction parameter influence the target parameter significantly. Furthermore, during the testing phase of proposed models with an independent set of data, the absolute and relative errors were significantly low, which indicates the prediction power of the employed soft computing techniques deemed satisfactory as compared to the measured data.

  15. Adverse Condition and Critical Event Prediction in Cranfield Multiphase Flow Facility

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Egedorf, Søren; Shaker, Hamid Reza

    2017-01-01

    , or even to the environment. To cope with these, adverse condition and critical event prediction plays an important role. Adverse Condition and Critical Event Prediction Toolbox (ACCEPT) is a tool which has been recently developed by NASA to allow for a timely prediction of an adverse event, with low false...... alarm and missed detection rates. While ACCEPT has shown to be an effective tool in some applications, its performance has not yet been evaluated on practical well-known benchmark examples. In this paper, ACCEPT is used for adverse condition and critical event prediction in a multiphase flow facility....... Cranfield multiphase flow facility is known to be an interesting benchmark which has been used to evaluate different methods from statistical process monitoring. In order to allow for the data from the flow facility to be used in ACCEPT, methods such as Kernel Density Estimation (KDE), PCA-and CVA...

  16. Prediction of critical heat flux by a new local condition hypothesis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Im, J. H.; Jun, K. D.; Sim, J. W.; Deng, Zhijian

    1998-01-01

    Critical Heat Flux(CHF) was predicted for uniformly heated vertical round tube by a new local condition hypothesis which incorporates a local true steam quality. This model successfully overcame the difficulties in predicted the subcooled and quality CHF by the thermodynamic equilibrium quality. The local true steam quality is a dependent variable of the thermodynamic equilibrium quality at the exit and the quality at the Onset of Significant Vaporization(OSV). The exit thermodynamic equilibrium quality was obtained from the heat balance, and the quality at OSV was obtained from the Saha-Zuber correlation. In the past CHF has been predicted by the experimental correlation based on local or non-local condition hypothesis. This preliminary study showed that all the available world data on uniform CHF could be predicted by the model based on the local condition hypothesis

  17. Behavior of irradiated ATR/MOX fuel under reactivity initiated accident conditions (Joint research)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sasajima, Hideo; Fuketa, Toyoshi; Nakamura, Takehiko; Nakamura, Jinichi; Uetsuka, Hiroshi

    2000-03-01

    Pulse irradiation experiments with irradiated ATR/MOX fuel rods of 20 MWd/kgHM were conducted at the NSRR in JAERI to study the transient behavior of MOX fuel rod under reactivity initiated accident conditions. Four pulse irradiation experiments were performed with peak fuel enthalpy ranging from 335 J/g to 586 J/g, resulted in no failure of fuel rods. Deformation of the fuel rods due to PCMI occurred in the experiments with peak fuel enthalpy above 500 J/g. Significant fission gas release up to 20% was measured by rod puncture measurement. The generation of fine radial cracks in pellet periphery, micro-cracks and boundary separation over the entire region of pellet were observed. These microstructure changes might contribute to the swelling of fuel pellets during the pulse irradiation. This could cause the large radial deformation of fuel rod and high fission gas release when the pulse irradiation conducted at relatively high peak fuel enthalpy. In addition, fine grain structures around the plutonium spot and cauliflower structure in cavity of the plutonium spot were observed in the outer region of the fuel pellet. (author)

  18. Topology in two dimensions. IV - CDM models with non-Gaussian initial conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coles, Peter; Moscardini, Lauro; Plionis, Manolis; Lucchin, Francesco; Matarrese, Sabino; Messina, Antonio

    1993-02-01

    The results of N-body simulations with both Gaussian and non-Gaussian initial conditions are used here to generate projected galaxy catalogs with the same selection criteria as the Shane-Wirtanen counts of galaxies. The Euler-Poincare characteristic is used to compare the statistical nature of the projected galaxy clustering in these simulated data sets with that of the observed galaxy catalog. All the models produce a topology dominated by a meatball shift when normalized to the known small-scale clustering properties of galaxies. Models characterized by a positive skewness of the distribution of primordial density perturbations are inconsistent with the Lick data, suggesting problems in reconciling models based on cosmic textures with observations. Gaussian CDM models fit the distribution of cell counts only if they have a rather high normalization but possess too low a coherence length compared with the Lick counts. This suggests that a CDM model with extra large scale power would probably fit the available data.

  19. Slum Conditions in Haryana and Pro-poor Housing Initiatives in Faridabad, India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nirmala

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Rapid urbanization forces urban poor to live in slums and squatter settlement. In neo-liberal development approach, participatory planning and collaborative actions are becoming popular in slum upgrading programmes. This paper discusses the slum scenario in state of Haryana along with detailed pro-poor housing attempts in industrial city of Haryana i.e. Faridabad. The paper reviews the three projects that aimed to improve the living conditions and lives of urban poor communities in Faridabad. The study examines in detail BSUP projects at Dabua Colony and Bapu Nagar taken up under India’s first urban renewal mission i.e. JNNURM within the context of community participation. Results reveal that contrary to the state’s rhetoric of inclusive governance, the urban poor are completely excluded from settlement planning, leading to a lack of understanding of their needs by the state. BSUP housing scheme has failed to mobilize slum dwellers. Drawing on the experience of these projects, the paper seeks to answer the question: why the stated objectives were not achieved and makes recommendation that community led initiatives and slum mapping should be at the core of slum improvement strategy so that qualitatively superior areas can be planned for the unprivileged.

  20. Initial condition effects on large scale structure in numerical simulations of plane mixing layers

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMullan, W. A.; Garrett, S. J.

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, Large Eddy Simulations are performed on the spatially developing plane turbulent mixing layer. The simulated mixing layers originate from initially laminar conditions. The focus of this research is on the effect of the nature of the imposed fluctuations on the large-scale spanwise and streamwise structures in the flow. Two simulations are performed; one with low-level three-dimensional inflow fluctuations obtained from pseudo-random numbers, the other with physically correlated fluctuations of the same magnitude obtained from an inflow generation technique. Where white-noise fluctuations provide the inflow disturbances, no spatially stationary streamwise vortex structure is observed, and the large-scale spanwise turbulent vortical structures grow continuously and linearly. These structures are observed to have a three-dimensional internal geometry with branches and dislocations. Where physically correlated provide the inflow disturbances a "streaky" streamwise structure that is spatially stationary is observed, with the large-scale turbulent vortical structures growing with the square-root of time. These large-scale structures are quasi-two-dimensional, on top of which the secondary structure rides. The simulation results are discussed in the context of the varying interpretations of mixing layer growth that have been postulated. Recommendations are made concerning the data required from experiments in order to produce accurate numerical simulation recreations of real flows.

  1. Behaviour of rock-like oxide fuels under reactivity-initiated accident conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kazuyuki, Kusagaya; Takehiko, Nakamura; Makio, Yoshinaga; Hiroshi, Akie; Toshiyuki, Yamashita; Hiroshi, Uetsuka

    2002-01-01

    Pulse irradiation tests of three types of un-irradiated rock-like oxide (ROX) fuel - yttria-stabilised zirconia (YSZ) single phase, YSZ and spinel (MgAl 2 O 4 ) homogeneous mixture and particle-dispersed YSZ/spinel - were conducted in the Nuclear Safety Research Reactor to investigate the fuel behaviour under reactivity-initiated accident conditions. The ROX fuels failed at fuel volumetric enthalpies above 10 GJ/m 3 , which was comparable to that of un-irradiated UO 2 fuel. The failure mode of the ROX fuels, however, was quite different from that of the UO 2 fuel. The ROX fuels failed with fuel pellet melting and a part of the molten fuel was released out to the surrounding coolant water. In spite of the release, no significant mechanical energy generation due to fuel/coolant thermal interaction was observed in the tested enthalpy range below∼12 GJ/m 3 . The YSZ type and homogenous YSZ/spinel type ROX fuels failed by cladding burst when their temperatures peaked, while the particle-dispersed YSZ/spinel type ROX fuel seemed to have failed by cladding local melting. (author)

  2. Quantum reversibility is relative, or does a quantum measurement reset initial conditions?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zurek, Wojciech H

    2018-07-13

    I compare the role of the information in classical and quantum dynamics by examining the relation between information flows in measurements and the ability of observers to reverse evolutions. I show that in the Newtonian dynamics reversibility is unaffected by the observer's retention of the information about the measurement outcome. By contrast-even though quantum dynamics is unitary, hence, reversible-reversing quantum evolution that led to a measurement becomes, in principle, impossible for an observer who keeps the record of its outcome. Thus, quantum irreversibility can result from the information gain rather than just its loss-rather than just an increase of the (von Neumann) entropy. Recording of the outcome of the measurement resets, in effect, initial conditions within the observer's (branch of) the Universe. Nevertheless, I also show that the observer's friend-an agent who knows what measurement was successfully carried out and can confirm that the observer knows the outcome but resists his curiosity and does not find out the result-can, in principle, undo the measurement. This relativity of quantum reversibility sheds new light on the origin of the arrow of time and elucidates the role of information in classical and quantum physics. Quantum discord appears as a natural measure of the extent to which dissemination of information about the outcome affects the ability to reverse the measurement.This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Foundations of quantum mechanics and their impact on contemporary society'. © 2018 The Author(s).

  3. The influence of initial conditions of water-entry on ricochet phenomenon

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Guoming, Chen; Jinfu, Feng; Junhua, Hu; An, Liu [Aeronautics and Astronautics Engineering College, Air Force Engineering University, Xi’an, 710038 (China); Yongli, Li, E-mail: 18192081790@163.com [Engineering University of CAPF, Xi’an 710086 (China)

    2017-08-15

    The ricochet phenomenon of the water-entry of the water–air crossing vehicle is investigated by both experiments and numerical simulations. Experiments and numerical simulations of the water-entry process with different inclination angles, velocities, and attack angles are performed. The whole ricochet progress and the changing rules of angular acceleration, angular velocity, and displacement are obtained and analyzed by numerical simulation for a deeper understanding of ricochet phenomenon. The experiment is carried out to study the underwater trajectory by changing the initial condition only. The experimental results are in good agreement with the simulations. The results show that: (1) A small inclination angle causes the trajectory to bend upward, favoring the ricochet phenomenon. (2) A large velocity value also favors the ricochet phenomenon, making it occur more easily and quickly, but lower velocities are insufficient to provide the necessary kinetic energy. (3) The ricochet phenomenon is more likely to occur under a negative attack angle that causes the trajectory to bend upward, but a positive angle balances the underwater trajectory. These results can provide guidance to design a new water–air cross vehicle. (paper)

  4. Melanoma risk prediction using a multilocus genetic risk score in the Women's Health Initiative cohort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cho, Hyunje G; Ransohoff, Katherine J; Yang, Lingyao; Hedlin, Haley; Assimes, Themistocles; Han, Jiali; Stefanick, Marcia; Tang, Jean Y; Sarin, Kavita Y

    2018-07-01

    Single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with melanoma have been identified though genome-wide association studies. However, the combined impact of these SNPs on melanoma development remains unclear, particularly in postmenopausal women who carry a lower melanoma risk. We examine the contribution of a combined polygenic risk score on melanoma development in postmenopausal women. Genetic risk scores were calculated using 21 genome-wide association study-significant SNPs. Their combined effect on melanoma development was evaluated in 19,102 postmenopausal white women in the clinical trial and observational study arms of the Women's Health Initiative dataset. Compared to the tertile of weighted genetic risk score with the lowest genetic risk, the women in the tertile with the highest genetic risk were 1.9 times more likely to develop melanoma (95% confidence interval 1.50-2.42). The incremental change in c-index from adding genetic risk scores to age were 0.075 (95% confidence interval 0.041-0.109) for incident melanoma. Limitations include a lack of information on nevi count, Fitzpatrick skin type, family history of melanoma, and potential reporting and selection bias in the Women's Health Initiative cohort. Higher genetic risk is associated with increased melanoma prevalence and incidence in postmenopausal women, but current genetic information may have a limited role in risk prediction when phenotypic information is available. Copyright © 2018 American Academy of Dermatology, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. SIMULATION OF CARS ACCUMULATION PROCESSES FOR SOLVING TASKS OF OPERATIONAL PLANNING IN CONDITIONS OF INITIAL INFORMATION UNCERTAINTY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    О. A. Tereshchenko

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. The article highlights development of the methodological basis for simulation the processes of cars accumulation in solving operational planning problems under conditions of initial information uncertainty for assessing the sustainability of the adopted planning scenario and calculating the associated technological risks. Methodology. The solution of the problem under investigation is based on the use of general scientific approaches, the apparatus of probability theory and the theory of fuzzy sets. To achieve this purpose, the factors influencing the entropy of operational plans are systematized. It is established that when planning the operational work of railway stations, sections and nodes, the most significant factors that cause uncertainty in the initial information are: a external conditions with respect to the railway ground in question, expressed by the uncertainty of the timing of cars arrivals; b external, hard-to-identify goals for the functioning of other participants in the logistics chain (primarily customers, expressed by the uncertainty of the completion time with the freight cars. These factors are suggested to be taken into account in automated planning through statistical analysis – the establishment and study of the remaining time (prediction errors. As a result, analytical dependencies are proposed for rational representation of the probability density functions of the time residual distribution in the form of point, piecewise-defined and continuous analytic models. The developed models of cars accumulation, the application of which depends on the identified states of the predicted incoming car flow to the accumulation system, are presented below. In addition, the last proposed model is a general case of models of accumulation processes with an arbitrary level of reliability of the initial information for any structure of the incoming flow of cars. In conclusion, a technique for estimating the results of

  6. Effects of initial conditions on self-similarity in a co-flowing axi-symmetric round jet

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Uddin, M.; Pollard, A.

    2004-01-01

    The effect of initial conditions of a spatially developing coflowing jet is investigated using an LES at Re D = 7,300. A co-flow velocity to initial jet centerline velocity ratio of 1:11 and a co-flow to initial jet diameter ratio of 35:1 are used to match the flow cases of Reference 11. The 35D x 135D simulation volume is divided into 1024 x 256 x 128 control volumes in the longitudinal, radial and azimuthal directions respectively. Time averaged results of the effect of initial conditions on mean flow, the decay of jet centreline velocity, growth of the jet and the distribution of Reynolds stresses in the near, and far field of the shear layer is presented. These quantities show good agreement with the measurements of Reference 11. Our results suggest that the first order moments, e.g., decay of centreline velocity excess, the radial mean velocity profiles, have little dependence on the initial conditions. As well, the Reynolds shear stress appears to have lesser sensitivity to the variation of initial velocity profiles. However, initial conditions have pronounced effect on the self-similarity of normal stresses. Additionally, the computations indicate little Reynolds number dependency, which is consistent with Townsend's school of thought. (author)

  7. Attribution of soil moisture dynamics - Initial conditions vs. atmospheric forcing and the role of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orth, Rene; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

    2014-05-01

    conditions versus the atmospheric forcing for monthly soil moisture variations. We find that initial soil moisture anomalies are overall more important than the forcing, even if less pronounced in summer. Especially in southern Europe we show high drought forecasting potential, whereas the forcing is more important in Central and North-eastern Europe.

  8. Analysis of grain growth process in melt spun Fe-B alloys under the initial saturated grain boundary segregation condition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Z.; Liu, F.; Yang, X.Q.; Fan, Y.; Shen, C.J.

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: → We compared pure kinetic, pure thermodynamic and extended thermo-kinetic models. → An initial saturated GB segregation condition of nanoscale Fe-B alloys was determined. → The controlled-mechanism was proposed using two characteristic times (t 1 and t 2 ). - Abstract: A grain growth process in the melt spun low-solid-solubility Fe-B alloys was analyzed under the initial saturated grain boundary (GB) segregation condition. Applying melt spinning technique, single-phase supersaturated nanograins were prepared. Grain growth behavior of the single-phase supersaturated nanograins was investigated by performing isothermal annealing at 700 deg. C. Combined with the effect of GB segregation on the initial GB excess amount, the thermo-kinetic model [Chen et al., Acta Mater. 57 (2009) 1466] was extended to describe the initial GB segregation condition of nanoscale Fe-B alloys. In comparison of pure kinetic model, pure thermodynamic model and the extended thermo-kinetic model, an initial saturated GB segregation condition was determined. The controlled-mechanism of grain growth under initial saturated GB segregation condition was proposed using two characteristic annealing times (t 1 and t 2 ), which included a mainly kinetic-controlled process (t ≤ t 1 ), a transition from kinetic-mechanism to thermodynamic-mechanism (t 1 2 ) and pure thermodynamic-controlled process (t ≥ t 2 ).

  9. Behavior of small-sized BWR fuel under reactivity initiated accident conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yanagisawa, Kazuaki; Fujishiro, Toshio; Horiki, Oichiro; Chen Dianshan; Takeuchi, Kiyoshi.

    1992-01-01

    The present work was performed on this small-sized BWR fuel, where Zr liner and rod prepressurization were taken as experimental parameters. Experiment was done under simulated reactivity initiated accident (RIA) conditions at Nuclear Safety Research Reactor (NSRR) belonged to Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute (JAERI). Major remarks obtained are as follows: (1) Three different types of the fuel rods consisted of (a) Zr lined/pressurized (0.65MPa), (b) Zr lined/non-pressurized and (c) non-Zr lined/pressurized (o.65MPa) were used, respectively. Failure thresholds of these were not less than that (260 cal/g·fuel) described in Japanese RIA Licensing Guideline. Small-sized BWR and conventional 8 x 8 BWR fuels were considered to be in almost the same level in failure threshold. Failure modes of the three were (a) cladding melt/brittle, (b) cladding melt/brittle and (c) rupture by large ballooning, respectively. (2) The magnitude of pressure pulse at fuel fragmentation was also studied by lined/pressurized and non-lined/pressurized fuels. Above the energy deposition of 370 cal/g·fuel, mechanical energy (or pressure) was found to be released from these fragmented fuels. No measurable difference was, however, observed between the tested fuels and NSRR standard (and conventional 8 x 8 BWR) fuels. (3) It is worthy of mentioning that Zr liner tended to prevent the cladding from large ballooning. Non-lined/pressurized fuel tended to cause wrinkle deformation at cladding. Hence, cladding external was notched much by the wrinkles. (4) Time to fuel failure measured from the tested BWR fuels (pressurization < 0.6MPA) was longer than that measured from PWR fuels (pressurization < 3.2MPa). The magnitude of the former was of the order of 3 ∼ 6s, while that of the latter was < 1s. (J.P.N.)

  10. Simulation of Electrical Discharge Initiated by a Nanometer-Sized Probe in Atmospheric Conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen Ran; Chen Chilai; Liu Youjiang; Wang Huanqin; Kong Deyi; Ma Yuan; Cada Michael; Brugger Jürgen

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, a two-dimensional nanometer scale tip-plate discharge model has been employed to study nanoscale electrical discharge in atmospheric conditions. The field strength distributions in a nanometer scale tip-to-plate electrode arrangement were calculated using the finite element analysis (FEA) method, and the influences of applied voltage amplitude and frequency as well as gas gap distance on the variation of effective discharge range (EDR) on the plate were also investigated and discussed. The simulation results show that the probe with a wide tip will cause a larger effective discharge range on the plate; the field strength in the gap is notably higher than that induced by the sharp tip probe; the effective discharge range will increase linearly with the rise of excitation voltage, and decrease nonlinearly with the rise of gap length. In addition, probe dimension, especially the width/height ratio, affects the effective discharge range in different manners. With the width/height ratio rising from 1:1 to 1:10, the effective discharge range will maintain stable when the excitation voltage is around 50 V. This will increase when the excitation voltage gets higher and decrease as the excitation voltage gets lower. Furthermore, when the gap length is 5 nm and the excitation voltage is below 20 V, the diameter of EDR in our simulation is about 150 nm, which is consistent with the experiment results reported by other research groups. Our work provides a preliminary understanding of nanometer scale discharges and establishes a predictive structure-behavior relationship

  11. Remaining useful life prediction based on noisy condition monitoring signals using constrained Kalman filter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Son, Junbo; Zhou, Shiyu; Sankavaram, Chaitanya; Du, Xinyu; Zhang, Yilu

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, a statistical prognostic method to predict the remaining useful life (RUL) of individual units based on noisy condition monitoring signals is proposed. The prediction accuracy of existing data-driven prognostic methods depends on the capability of accurately modeling the evolution of condition monitoring (CM) signals. Therefore, it is inevitable that the RUL prediction accuracy depends on the amount of random noise in CM signals. When signals are contaminated by a large amount of random noise, RUL prediction even becomes infeasible in some cases. To mitigate this issue, a robust RUL prediction method based on constrained Kalman filter is proposed. The proposed method models the CM signals subject to a set of inequality constraints so that satisfactory prediction accuracy can be achieved regardless of the noise level of signal evolution. The advantageous features of the proposed RUL prediction method is demonstrated by both numerical study and case study with real world data from automotive lead-acid batteries. - Highlights: • A computationally efficient constrained Kalman filter is proposed. • Proposed filter is integrated into an online failure prognosis framework. • A set of proper constraints significantly improves the failure prediction accuracy. • Promising results are reported in the application of battery failure prognosis.

  12. Condition Assessment and End-of-Life Prediction System for Electric Machines and Their Loads

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parlos, Alexander G.; Toliyat, Hamid A.

    2005-01-01

    An end-of-life prediction system developed for electric machines and their loads could be used in integrated vehicle health monitoring at NASA and in other government agencies. This system will provide on-line, real-time condition assessment and end-of-life prediction of electric machines (e.g., motors, generators) and/or their loads of mechanically coupled machinery (e.g., pumps, fans, compressors, turbines, conveyor belts, magnetic levitation trains, and others). In long-duration space flight, the ability to predict the lifetime of machinery could spell the difference between mission success or failure. Therefore, the system described here may be of inestimable value to the U.S. space program. The system will provide continuous monitoring for on-line condition assessment and end-of-life prediction as opposed to the current off-line diagnoses.

  13. SCC of cold-worked austenitic stainless steels exposed to PWR primary water conditions: susceptibility to initiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herms, E.; Raquet, O.; Sejourne, L.; Vaillant, F.

    2009-01-01

    Heavily cold-worked austenitic stainless steels (AISI 304L and 316L types) could be significantly susceptible to Stress Corrosion Cracking (SCC) when exposed to PWR nominal primary water conditions even in absence of any pollutants. Susceptibility to SCC was shown to be related with some conditions such as initial hardness, procedure of cold-work or dynamic straining. A dedicated program devoted to better understand the initiation stage on CW austenitic stainless steels in PWR water is presented. Initiation is studied thanks to SCC test conditions leading to an intergranular cracking propagation mode on a CW austenitic stainless steel which is the mode generally reported after field experience. SCC tests are carried out in typical primary water conditions (composition 1000 ppm B and 2 ppm Li) and for temperature in the range 290 - 340 C. Material selected is 316L cold-worked essentially by rolling (reduction in thickness of 40%). Initiation tests are carried out under various stress levels with the aim to investigate the evolution of the initiation period versus the value of applied stress. SCC tests are performed on cylindrical notched specimens in order to increase the applied stress and allow accelerated testing without modify the exposure conditions to strictly nominal hydrogenated PWR water. Respective influences of cyclic/dynamic conditions on SCC initiation are presented and discussed. Dedicated interrupted tests help to investigate the behaviour of the crack initiation process. These SCC tests have shown that crack initiation could be obtained after a very short time under dynamic loading conditions on heavily pre-strained austenitic stainless steels. Actual results show that the most limiting stage of the cracking process on CW 316L seems to be the transition from slow transgranular propagation of surface initiated cracks to intergranular fast propagation through the thickness of the sample. The duration of this stage during crack initiation tests is

  14. Influence of Met-Ocean Condition Forecasting Uncertainties on Weather Window Predictions for Offshore Operations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gintautas, Tomas; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2017-01-01

    The article briefly presents a novel methodology of weather window estimation for offshore operations and mainly focuses on effects of met-ocean condition forecasting uncertainties on weather window predictions when using the proposed methodology. It is demonstrated that the proposed methodology...... to include stochastic variables, representing met-ocean forecasting uncertainties and the results of such modification are given in terms of predicted weather windows for a selected test case....

  15. Predictive Uncertainty Estimation in Water Demand Forecasting Using the Model Conditional Processor

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amos O. Anele

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available In a previous paper, a number of potential models for short-term water demand (STWD prediction have been analysed to find the ones with the best fit. The results obtained in Anele et al. (2017 showed that hybrid models may be considered as the accurate and appropriate forecasting models for STWD prediction. However, such best single valued forecast does not guarantee reliable and robust decisions, which can be properly obtained via model uncertainty processors (MUPs. MUPs provide an estimate of the full predictive densities and not only the single valued expected prediction. Amongst other MUPs, the purpose of this paper is to use the multi-variate version of the model conditional processor (MCP, proposed by Todini (2008, to demonstrate how the estimation of the predictive probability conditional to a number of relatively good predictive models may improve our knowledge, thus reducing the predictive uncertainty (PU when forecasting into the unknown future. Through the MCP approach, the probability distribution of the future water demand can be assessed depending on the forecast provided by one or more deterministic forecasting models. Based on an average weekly data of 168 h, the probability density of the future demand is built conditional on three models’ predictions, namely the autoregressive-moving average (ARMA, feed-forward back propagation neural network (FFBP-NN and hybrid model (i.e., combined forecast from ARMA and FFBP-NN. The results obtained show that MCP may be effectively used for real-time STWD prediction since it brings out the PU connected to its forecast, and such information could help water utilities estimate the risk connected to a decision.

  16. Initializing carbon cycle predictions from the Community Land Model by assimilating global biomass observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fox, A. M.; Hoar, T. J.; Smith, W. K.; Moore, D. J.

    2017-12-01

    The locations and longevity of terrestrial carbon sinks remain uncertain, however it is clear that in order to predict long-term climate changes the role of the biosphere in surface energy and carbon balance must be understood and incorporated into earth system models (ESMs). Aboveground biomass, the amount of carbon stored in vegetation, is a key component of the terrestrial carbon cycle, representing the balance of uptake through gross primary productivity (GPP), losses from respiration, senescence and mortality over hundreds of years. The best predictions of current and future land-atmosphere fluxes are likely from the integration of process-based knowledge contained in models and information from observations of changes in carbon stocks using data assimilation (DA). By exploiting long times series, it is possible to accurately detect variability and change in carbon cycle dynamics through monitoring ecosystem states, for example biomass derived from vegetation optical depth (VOD), and use this information to initialize models before making predictions. To make maximum use of information about the current state of global ecosystems when using models we have developed a system that combines the Community Land Model (CLM) with the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART), a community tool for ensemble DA. This DA system is highly innovative in its complexity, completeness and capabilities. Here we described a series of activities, using both Observation System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) and real observations, that have allowed us to quantify the potential impact of assimilating VOD data into CLM-DART on future land-atmosphere fluxes. VOD data are particularly suitable to use in this activity due to their long temporal coverage and appropriate scale when combined with CLM, but their absolute values rely on many assumptions. Therefore, we have had to assess the implications of the VOD retrieval algorithms, with an emphasis on detecting uncertainty due to

  17. ACCEPT: Introduction of the Adverse Condition and Critical Event Prediction Toolbox

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Rodney A.; Santanu, Das; Janakiraman, Vijay Manikandan; Hosein, Stefan

    2015-01-01

    The prediction of anomalies or adverse events is a challenging task, and there are a variety of methods which can be used to address the problem. In this paper, we introduce a generic framework developed in MATLAB (sup registered mark) called ACCEPT (Adverse Condition and Critical Event Prediction Toolbox). ACCEPT is an architectural framework designed to compare and contrast the performance of a variety of machine learning and early warning algorithms, and tests the capability of these algorithms to robustly predict the onset of adverse events in any time-series data generating systems or processes.

  18. Predicting temperature drop rate of mass concrete during an initial cooling period using genetic programming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhattarai, Santosh; Zhou, Yihong; Zhao, Chunju; Zhou, Huawei

    2018-02-01

    Thermal cracking on concrete dams depends upon the rate at which the concrete is cooled (temperature drop rate per day) within an initial cooling period during the construction phase. Thus, in order to control the thermal cracking of such structure, temperature development due to heat of hydration of cement should be dropped at suitable rate. In this study, an attempt have been made to formulate the relation between cooling rate of mass concrete with passage of time (age of concrete) and water cooling parameters: flow rate and inlet temperature of cooling water. Data measured at summer season (April-August from 2009 to 2012) from recently constructed high concrete dam were used to derive a prediction model with the help of Genetic Programming (GP) software “Eureqa”. Coefficient of Determination (R) and Mean Square Error (MSE) were used to evaluate the performance of the model. The value of R and MSE is 0.8855 and 0.002961 respectively. Sensitivity analysis was performed to evaluate the relative impact on the target parameter due to input parameters. Further, testing the proposed model with an independent dataset those not included during analysis, results obtained from the proposed GP model are close enough to the real field data.

  19. Prediction of failure of highly irradiated Zircaloy clad tubes under reactivity initiated accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jernkvist, L.O.

    2003-01-01

    This paper deals with failure of irradiated Zircaloy tubes under the heat-up stage of a reactivity initiated accident (RIA). More precisely, by use of a model for plastic strain localization and necking failure, we theoretically analyse the effects of local surface defects on clad ductility and survivability under RIA. The results show that even very shallow surface defects, e.g. arising from a non-uniform or partially spilled oxide layer, have a strong limiting effect on clad ductility. Moreover, in presence of surface defects, the ability of the clad tube to expand radially without necking failure is found to be extremely sensitive to the stress biaxiality ratio σ zz /σ θθ , which is here assumed to be in the range from 0 to 1. The results of our analysis are compared with clad ductility data available in literature, and their consequences for clad failure prediction under RIA are discussed. In particular, the results raise serious concerns regarding the applicability of failure criteria, which are based on clad strain energy density. These criteria do not capture the observed sensitivity to stress biaxiality on clad failure propensity. (author)

  20. A CLUSTER IN THE MAKING: ALMA REVEALS THE INITIAL CONDITIONS FOR HIGH-MASS CLUSTER FORMATION

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rathborne, J. M.; Contreras, Y.; Longmore, S. N.; Bastian, N.; Jackson, J. M.; Alves, J. F.; Bally, J.; Foster, J. B.; Garay, G.; Kruijssen, J. M. D.; Testi, L.; Walsh, A. J.

    2015-01-01

    G0.253+0.016 is a molecular clump that appears to be on the verge of forming a high-mass cluster: its extremely low dust temperature, high mass, and high density, combined with its lack of prevalent star formation, make it an excellent candidate for an Arches-like cluster in a very early stage of formation. Here we present new Atacama Large Millimeter/Sub-millimeter Array observations of its small-scale (∼0.07 pc) 3 mm dust continuum and molecular line emission from 17 different species that probe a range of distinct physical and chemical conditions. The data reveal a complex network of emission features with a complicated velocity structure: there is emission on all spatial scales, the morphology of which ranges from small, compact regions to extended, filamentary structures that are seen in both emission and absorption. The dust column density is well traced by molecules with higher excitation energies and critical densities, consistent with a clump that has a denser interior. A statistical analysis supports the idea that turbulence shapes the observed gas structure within G0.253+0.016. We find a clear break in the turbulent power spectrum derived from the optically thin dust continuum emission at a spatial scale of ∼0.1 pc, which may correspond to the spatial scale at which gravity has overcome the thermal pressure. We suggest that G0.253+0.016 is on the verge of forming a cluster from hierarchical, filamentary structures that arise from a highly turbulent medium. Although the stellar distribution within high-mass Arches-like clusters is compact, centrally condensed, and smooth, the observed gas distribution within G0.253+0.016 is extended, with no high-mass central concentration, and has a complex, hierarchical structure. If this clump gives rise to a high-mass cluster and its stars are formed from this initially hierarchical gas structure, then the resulting cluster must evolve into a centrally condensed structure via a dynamical process

  1. Surface-Initiated Graft Atom Transfer Radical Polymerization of Methyl Methacrylate from Chitin Nanofiber Macroinitiator under Dispersion Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ryo Endo

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Surface-initiated graft atom transfer radical polymerization (ATRP of methyl methacrylate (MMA from self-assembled chitin nanofibers (CNFs was performed under dispersion conditions. Self-assembled CNFs were initially prepared by regeneration from a chitin ion gel with 1-allyl-3-methylimidazolium bromide using methanol; the product was then converted into the chitin nanofiber macroinitiator by reaction with α-bromoisobutyryl bromide in a dispersion containing N,N-dimethylformamide. Surface-initiated graft ATRP of MMA from the initiating sites on the CNFs was subsequently carried out under dispersion conditions, followed by filtration to obtain the CNF-graft-polyMMA film. Analysis of the product confirmed the occurrence of the graft ATRP on the surface of the CNFs.

  2. Prediction of heat-illness symptoms with the prediction of human vascular response in hot environment under resting condition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aggarwal, Yogender; Karan, Bhuwan Mohan; Das, Barsa Nand; Sinha, Rakesh Kumar

    2008-04-01

    The thermoregulatory control of human skin blood flow is vital to maintain the body heat storage during challenges of thermal homeostasis under heat stress. Whenever thermal homeostasis disturbed, the heat load exceeds heat dissipation capacity, which alters the cutaneous vascular responses along with other body physiological variables. Whole body skin blood flow has been calculated from the forearm blood flow. Present model has been designed using electronics circuit simulator (Multisim 8.0, National Instruments, USA), is to execute a series of predictive equations for early prediction of physiological parameters of young nude subjects during resting condition at various level of dry heat stress under almost still air to avoid causalities associated with hot environmental. The users can execute the model by changing the environmental temperature in degrees C and exposure time in minutes. The model would be able to predict and detect the changes in human vascular responses along with other physiological parameters and from this predicted values heat related-illness symptoms can be inferred.

  3. Coupled prediction of flood response and debris flow initiation during warm and cold season events in the Southern Appalachians, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tao, J.; Barros, A. P.

    2013-07-01

    Debris flows associated with rainstorms are a frequent and devastating hazard in the Southern Appalachians in the United States. Whereas warm season events are clearly associated with heavy rainfall intensity, the same cannot be said for the cold season events. Instead, there is a relationship between large (cumulative) rainfall events independently of season, and thus hydrometeorological regime, and debris flows. This suggests that the dynamics of subsurface hydrologic processes play an important role as a trigger mechanism, specifically through soil moisture redistribution by interflow. The first objective of this study is to investigate this hypothesis. The second objective is to assess the physical basis for a regional coupled flood prediction and debris flow warning system. For this purpose, uncalibrated model simulations of well-documented debris flows in headwater catchments of the Southern Appalachians using a 3-D surface-groundwater hydrologic model coupled with slope stability models are examined in detail. Specifically, we focus on two vulnerable headwater catchments that experience frequent debris flows, the Big Creek and the Jonathan Creek in the Upper Pigeon River Basin, North Carolina, and three distinct weather systems: an extremely heavy summertime convective storm in 2011; a persistent winter storm lasting several days; and a severe winter storm in 2009. These events were selected due to the optimal availability of rainfall observations, availability of detailed field surveys of the landslides shortly after they occurred, which can be used to evaluate model predictions, and because they are representative of events that cause major economic losses in the region. The model results substantiate that interflow is a useful prognostic of conditions necessary for the initiation of slope instability, and should therefore be considered explicitly in landslide hazard assessments. Moreover, the relationships between slope stability and interflow are

  4. Moving from measuring to predicting bycatch mortality: predicting the capture condition of a longline-caught pelagic shark

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Derek Richard Dapp

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Incidental fisheries capture has been identified as having a major effect on shark populations throughout the world. However, factors that contribute to the mortality of shark bycatch during fisheries capture are not fully understood. Here, we investigated the effects of capture duration, sea surface temperature, and shark total length (snout to the tip of the upper caudal lobe on the physiology and condition of longline-caught bronze whalers, Carcharhinus brachyurus. Plasma lactate and potassium concentration had a positive linear relationship with capture duration, indicating that this species experiences increasing physiological challenges while on fishing gear. Additionally, we used stereotype logistic regression models to determine variables that could predict the capture condition of sharks (categorized as healthy, sluggish, or moribund or dead. In these models, elevated plasma lactate concentration, plasma potassium concentration, and capture duration increased the likelihood of C. brachyurus being captured in a sluggish condition or in a moribund or dead condition. After plasma lactate concentration exceeded 27.4 mmol/L, plasma potassium concentration exceeded 8.3 mmol/L, or capture durations exceeded 293 minutes, the majority of captured sharks (>50% were predicted to be moribund or dead. We recommend that a reduction in the amount of time longlines are left fishing (soak time will reduce immediate and post-release mortality in C. brachyurus bycatch and that our methods could be applied to identify causes of fisheries-induced mortality in future studies. The identification of operational, environmental, and biological variables contributing to poor condition will be necessary to implement conservation strategies that reduce mortality during capture.

  5. Quantitative measures of meniscus extrusion predict incident radiographic knee osteoarthritis – data from the Osteoarthritis Initiative

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emmanuel, K.; Quinn, E.; Niu, J.; Guermazi, A.; Roemer, F.; Wirth, W.; Eckstein, F.; Felson, D.

    2017-01-01

    SUMMARY Objective To test the hypothesis that quantitative measures of meniscus extrusion predict incident radiographic knee osteoarthritis (KOA), prior to the advent of radiographic disease. Methods 206 knees with incident radiographic KOA (Kellgren Lawrence Grade (KLG) 0 or 1 at baseline, developing KLG 2 or greater with a definite osteophyte and joint space narrowing (JSN) grade ≥1 by year 4) were matched to 232 control knees not developing incident KOA. Manual segmentation of the central five slices of the medial and lateral meniscus was performed on coronal 3T DESS MRI and quantitative meniscus position was determined. Cases and controls were compared using conditional logistic regression adjusting for age, sex, BMI, race and clinical site. Sensitivity analyses of early (year [Y] 1/2) and late (Y3/4) incidence was performed. Results Mean medial extrusion distance was significantly greater for incident compared to non-incident knees (1.56 mean ± 1.12 mm SD vs 1.29 ± 0.99 mm; +21%, P meniscus (25.8 ± 15.8% vs 22.0 ± 13.5%; +17%, P meniscus in incident medial KOA, or for the tibial plateau coverage between incident and non-incident knees. Restricting the analysis to medial incident KOA at Y1/2 differences were attenuated, but reached significance for extrusion distance, whereas no significant differences were observed at incident KOA in Y3/4. Conclusion Greater medial meniscus extrusion predicts incident radiographic KOA. Early onset KOA showed greater differences for meniscus position between incident and non-incident knees than late onset KOA. PMID:26318658

  6. Quantitative measures of meniscus extrusion predict incident radiographic knee osteoarthritis--data from the Osteoarthritis Initiative.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emmanuel, K; Quinn, E; Niu, J; Guermazi, A; Roemer, F; Wirth, W; Eckstein, F; Felson, D

    2016-02-01

    To test the hypothesis that quantitative measures of meniscus extrusion predict incident radiographic knee osteoarthritis (KOA), prior to the advent of radiographic disease. 206 knees with incident radiographic KOA (Kellgren Lawrence Grade (KLG) 0 or 1 at baseline, developing KLG 2 or greater with a definite osteophyte and joint space narrowing (JSN) grade ≥1 by year 4) were matched to 232 control knees not developing incident KOA. Manual segmentation of the central five slices of the medial and lateral meniscus was performed on coronal 3T DESS MRI and quantitative meniscus position was determined. Cases and controls were compared using conditional logistic regression adjusting for age, sex, BMI, race and clinical site. Sensitivity analyses of early (year [Y] 1/2) and late (Y3/4) incidence was performed. Mean medial extrusion distance was significantly greater for incident compared to non-incident knees (1.56 mean ± 1.12 mm SD vs 1.29 ± 0.99 mm; +21%, P meniscus (25.8 ± 15.8% vs 22.0 ± 13.5%; +17%, P meniscus in incident medial KOA, or for the tibial plateau coverage between incident and non-incident knees. Restricting the analysis to medial incident KOA at Y1/2 differences were attenuated, but reached significance for extrusion distance, whereas no significant differences were observed at incident KOA in Y3/4. Greater medial meniscus extrusion predicts incident radiographic KOA. Early onset KOA showed greater differences for meniscus position between incident and non-incident knees than late onset KOA. Copyright © 2015 Osteoarthritis Research Society International. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Smoke composition and predicting relationships for international commercial cigarettes smoked with three machine-smoking conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Counts, M E; Morton, M J; Laffoon, S W; Cox, R H; Lipowicz, P J

    2005-04-01

    The study objectives were to determine the effects of smoking machine puffing parameters on mainstream smoke composition and to express those effects as predicting relationships. Forty-eight commercial Philip Morris USA and Philip Morris International cigarettes from international markets and the 1R4F reference cigarette were machine-smoked using smoking conditions defined by the International Organization of Standardization (ISO), the Massachusetts Department of Public Health (MDPH), and Health Canada (HC). Cigarette tobacco fillers were analyzed for nitrate, nicotine, tobacco-specific nitrosamines (TSNA), and ammonia. Mainstream yields for tar and 44 individual smoke constituents and "smoke pH" were determined. Cigarette constituent yields typically increased in the order ISOrelationships were developed between ISO tar and ISO, MDPH, and HC constituent yields and between MDPH tar and HC tar and respective smoking condition yields. MDPH and HC constituent yields could be predicted with similar reliability using ISO tar or the corresponding smoking-condition tar. The reliability of the relationships varied from strong to weak, depending on particular constituents. Weak predicting relationships for nitrogen oxides and TSNA's, for example, were improved with inclusion of tobacco filler composition factors. "Smoke pH" was similar for all cigarettes at any one smoking condition, and overall marginally lower at HC conditions than at ISO or MDPH conditions.

  8. Optimization approach of background value and initial item for improving prediction precision of GM(1,1) model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yuhong Wang; Qin Liu; Jianrong Tang; Wenbin Cao; Xiaozhong Li

    2014-01-01

    A combination method of optimization of the back-ground value and optimization of the initial item is proposed. The sequences of the unbiased exponential distribution are simulated and predicted through the optimization of the background value in grey differential equations. The principle of the new information priority in the grey system theory and the rationality of the initial item in the original GM(1,1) model are ful y expressed through the improvement of the initial item in the proposed time response function. A numerical example is employed to il ustrate that the proposed method is able to simulate and predict sequences of raw data with the unbiased exponential distribution and has better simulation performance and prediction precision than the original GM(1,1) model relatively.

  9. Corrosion fatigue initiation and short crack growth behaviour of austenitic stainless steels under light water reactor conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seifert, H.P.; Ritter, S.; Leber, H.J.

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► Corrosion fatigue in austenitic stainless steels under light water reactor conditions. ► Identification of major parameters of influence on initiation and short crack growth. ► Critical system conditions for environmental reduction of fatigue initiation life. ► Comparison with the environmental factor (F env ) approach. - Abstract: The corrosion fatigue initiation and short crack growth behaviour of different wrought low-carbon and stabilised austenitic stainless steels was characterised under simulated boiling water reactor and pressurised water reactor primary water conditions by cyclic fatigue tests with sharply notched fracture mechanics specimens. The special emphasis was placed to the behaviour at low corrosion potentials and, in particular, to hydrogen water chemistry conditions. The major parameter effects and critical conjoint threshold conditions, which result in relevant environmental reduction and acceleration of fatigue initiation life and subsequent short crack growth, respectively, are discussed and summarised. The observed corrosion fatigue behaviour is compared with the fatigue evaluation procedures in codes and regulatory guidelines.

  10. Traffic Flow Prediction Using MI Algorithm and Considering Noisy and Data Loss Conditions: An Application to Minnesota Traffic Flow Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seyed Hadi Hosseini

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Traffic flow forecasting is useful for controlling traffic flow, traffic lights, and travel times. This study uses a multi-layer perceptron neural network and the mutual information (MI technique to forecast traffic flow and compares the prediction results with conventional traffic flow forecasting methods. The MI method is used to calculate the interdependency of historical traffic data and future traffic flow. In numerical case studies, the proposed traffic flow forecasting method was tested against data loss, changes in weather conditions, traffic congestion, and accidents. The outcomes were highly acceptable for all cases and showed the robustness of the proposed flow forecasting method.

  11. Mindfulness meditation modulates reward prediction errors in the striatum in a passive conditioning task

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ulrich eKirk

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Reinforcement learning models have demonstrated that phasic activity of dopamine neurons during reward expectation encodes information about the predictability of rewards and cues that predict reward. Evidence indicates that mindfulness-based approaches reduce reward anticipation signal in the striatum to negative and positive incentives suggesting the hypothesis that such training influence basic reward processing. Using a passive conditioning task and fMRI in a group of experienced mindfulness meditators and age-matched controls, we tested the hypothesis that mindfulness meditation influence reward and reward prediction error signals. We found diminished positive and negative prediction error-related blood-oxygen level-dependent (BOLD responses in the putamen in meditators compared with controls. In the meditators, this decrease in striatal BOLD responses to reward prediction was paralleled by increased activity in posterior insula, a primary interoceptive region. Critically, responses in the putamen during early trials of the conditioning procedure (run 1 were elevated in both meditators and controls. These results provide evidence that experienced mindfulness meditators show attenuated reward prediction signals to valenced stimuli, which may be related to interoceptive processes encoded in the posterior insula.

  12. The prediction of mechanical performance of isotactic polypropylene on the basis of processing conditions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Caelers, H.J.M.; Govaert, L.E.; Peters, G.W.M.

    2016-01-01

    A strategy is presented to predict the yield kinetics following from different thermomechanical histories experienced during processing in non-isothermal quiescent conditions. This strategy deals with three main parts, i.e. processing, structure and properties. In the first part the applied cooling

  13. Leading-Edge Noise Prediction of General Airfoil Profiles with Spanwise-Varying Inflow Conditions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Miotto, Renato Fuzaro; Wolf, William Roberto; De Santana, Leandro Dantas

    2018-01-01

    This paper presents a study of the leading-edge noise radiated by an airfoil undergoing a turbulent inflow. The noise prediction of generic airfoil profiles subjected to spanwise-varying inflow conditions is performed with the support of Amiet’s theory and the inverse strip technique. In the

  14. Informal Workplace Learning among Nurses: Organisational Learning Conditions and Personal Characteristics That Predict Learning Outcomes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kyndt, Eva; Vermeire, Eva; Cabus, Shana

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: This paper aims to examine which organisational learning conditions and individual characteristics predict the learning outcomes nurses achieve through informal learning activities. There is specific relevance for the nursing profession because of the rapidly changing healthcare systems. Design/Methodology/Approach: In total, 203 nurses…

  15. Leading-Edge Noise Prediction of General Airfoil Profiles with Spanwise-Varying Inflow Conditions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Miotto, Renato Fuzaro; Wolf, William Roberto; De Santana, Leandro Dantas

    This paper presents a study of the leading-edge noise radiated by an airfoil undergoing a turbulent inflow. The noise prediction of generic airfoil profiles subjected to spanwise-varying inflow conditions is performed with the support of Amiet’s theory and the inverse strip technique. In the

  16. Literature-based condition-specific miRNA-mRNA target prediction.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Minsik Oh

    Full Text Available miRNAs are small non-coding RNAs that regulate gene expression by binding to the 3'-UTR of genes. Many recent studies have reported that miRNAs play important biological roles by regulating specific mRNAs or genes. Many sequence-based target prediction algorithms have been developed to predict miRNA targets. However, these methods are not designed for condition-specific target predictions and produce many false positives; thus, expression-based target prediction algorithms have been developed for condition-specific target predictions. A typical strategy to utilize expression data is to leverage the negative control roles of miRNAs on genes. To control false positives, a stringent cutoff value is typically set, but in this case, these methods tend to reject many true target relationships, i.e., false negatives. To overcome these limitations, additional information should be utilized. The literature is probably the best resource that we can utilize. Recent literature mining systems compile millions of articles with experiments designed for specific biological questions, and the systems provide a function to search for specific information. To utilize the literature information, we used a literature mining system, BEST, that automatically extracts information from the literature in PubMed and that allows the user to perform searches of the literature with any English words. By integrating omics data analysis methods and BEST, we developed Context-MMIA, a miRNA-mRNA target prediction method that combines expression data analysis results and the literature information extracted based on the user-specified context. In the pathway enrichment analysis using genes included in the top 200 miRNA-targets, Context-MMIA outperformed the four existing target prediction methods that we tested. In another test on whether prediction methods can re-produce experimentally validated target relationships, Context-MMIA outperformed the four existing target prediction

  17. Positron Emission Tomography (PET) Evaluation After Initial Chemotherapy and Radiation Therapy Predicts Local Control in Rhabdomyosarcoma

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dharmarajan, Kavita V., E-mail: dharmark@mskcc.org [Departments of Radiation Oncology, Pediatric Oncology, and Nuclear Medicine, Memorial Sloan-Kettering, New York, New York (United States); Wexler, Leonard H.; Gavane, Somali; Fox, Josef J.; Schoder, Heiko; Tom, Ashlyn K.; Price, Alison N.; Meyers, Paul A.; Wolden, Suzanne L. [Departments of Radiation Oncology, Pediatric Oncology, and Nuclear Medicine, Memorial Sloan-Kettering, New York, New York (United States)

    2012-11-15

    Purpose: 18-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (PET) is already an integral part of staging in rhabdomyosarcoma. We investigated whether primary-site treatment response characterized by serial PET imaging at specific time points can be correlated with local control. Patients and Methods: We retrospectively examined 94 patients with rhabdomyosarcoma who received initial chemotherapy 15 weeks (median) before radiotherapy and underwent baseline, preradiation, and postradiation PET. Baseline PET standardized uptake values (SUVmax) and the presence or absence of abnormal uptake (termed PET-positive or PET-negative) both before and after radiation were examined for the primary site. Local relapse-free survival (LRFS) was calculated according to baseline SUVmax, PET-positive status, and PET-negative status by the Kaplan-Meier method, and comparisons were tested with the log-rank test. Results: The median patient age was 11 years. With 3-year median follow-up, LRFS was improved among postradiation PET-negative vs PET-positive patients: 94% vs 75%, P=.02. By contrast, on baseline PET, LRFS was not significantly different for primary-site SUVmax {<=}7 vs >7 (median), although the findings suggested a trend toward improved LRFS: 96% for SUVmax {<=}7 vs 79% for SUVmax >7, P=.08. Preradiation PET also suggested a statistically insignificant trend toward improved LRFS for PET-negative (97%) vs PET-positive (81%) patients (P=.06). Conclusion: Negative postradiation PET predicted improved LRFS. Notably, 77% of patients with persistent postradiation uptake did not experience local failure, suggesting that these patients could be closely followed up rather than immediately referred for intervention. Negative baseline and preradiation PET findings suggested statistically insignificant trends toward improved LRFS. Additional study may further understanding of relationships between PET findings at these time points and outcome in rhabdomyosarcoma.

  18. Corona initiated from grounded objects under thunderstorm conditions and its influence on lightning attachment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bazelyan, E M; Raizer, Yu P; Aleksandrov, N L

    2008-01-01

    Lightning attachment to grounded structures due to the initiation of an upward connecting leader from them is considered taking into account the effect of corona space charge near the structures. It is shown that the corona space charge strongly affects the initiation and development of the connecting leader. Specific features of a non-stationary corona are analysed analytically and numerically for one-dimensional electrode geometries and for a grounded rod coronating in a slowly varying thundercloud electric field that can be enhanced by the charge of an approaching downward lightning leader. Initiation and development of an upward connecting leader or upward lightning from high ground objects are investigated. Prospects of using the effect of coronae to control downward lightning discharges are discussed.

  19. Effect of mixing rule boundary conditions on high pressure (liquid + liquid) equilibrium prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hsieh, Min-Kang; Lin, Shiang-Tai

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► Prediction of LLE from the combined use of EOS and liquid model are examined. ► The mixing rule used affects the predicted pressure dependence of LLE. ► MHV1 mixing rule predicts decent LLE at low pressures. ► WS mixing rule predicts more accurate excess volume and LLE at high pressures. ► The hybrid of MHV1 and WS mixing rule gives overall the best predictions. - Abstract: We examine the prediction of high pressure (liquid + liquid) equilibrium (LLE) from the Peng–Robinson equation with three excess Gibbs free energy (G ex )-based mixing rules (MR): the first order modified Huron–Vidal (MHV1), the Wong–Sandler (WS), and a hybrid of these two (referred to as G ex B 2 ). These mixing rules differ by the boundary conditions used for determination of the temperature and composition dependence of parameters a and b in the PR EOS. The condition of matching the excess Gibbs free energy from the EOS at zero pressure to that from the G ex model, used in MHV1 and G ex B 2 MR, leads to a similar miscibility gap from PR EOS and the G ex model used. On the other hand, the condition of matching excess Helmholtz energy from the EOS at infinite pressure to that from the G ex model, used in the WS MR, shows remarkable deviations. The condition of quadratic composition dependence in the second virial coefficient (B 2 ), used in WS and G ex B 2 MR, allows for both positive and negative values in the molar excess volume. Depending on the mixture, either the increase or decrease of the miscibility gap with pressure can be observed when the WS or the G ex B 2 MR is used. The condition of linear combination of molecular sizes of each component used in the MHV1 MR, however, often leads to small, positive molar excess volumes. As a consequence, the predicted LLE from using the MHV1 MR are insensitive to pressure. Therefore, we find that the G ex B 2 mixing rule provides the best predictive power for the LLE over a wide range of temperature and pressure.

  20. 42 CFR 418.54 - Condition of participation: Initial and comprehensive assessment of the patient.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... patient's well-being, comfort, and dignity throughout the dying process. The comprehensive assessment must... and participate in his or her own care. (4) Imminence of death. (5) Severity of symptoms. (6) Drug... their ability to cope with the patient's death. Information gathered from the initial bereavement...

  1. The effect of coronae on leader initiation and development under thunderstorm conditions and in long air gaps

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aleksandrov, N.L.; Bazelyan, E.M.; Carpenter Jr, R.B.; Drabkin, M.M.; Raizer, Yu P.

    2001-01-01

    The initiation and development of a leader is theoretically studied by considering an electrode which is embedded in a cloud of space charge injected by a corona discharge. The focus is on the initiation of upward lightning from a stationary grounded object in a thundercloud electric field. The main results are also applicable to the leader process in long laboratory air gaps at direct voltage. Simple physical models of non-stationary coronae developing in free space near a solitary stressed sphere and of a leader propagating in the space charge cloud of coronae are suggested. It is shown that the electric field redistribution due to the space charge released by the long corona discharge near the top of a high object hinders the initiation and development of an upward leader from the object in a thundercloud electric field. The conditions for the formation of corona streamers that are required to initiate a leader are derived. The criteria are obtained for a leader to be initiated and propagate in the space charge cloud. A hypothesis is proposed that the streamers are never initiated near the top of a high object under thunderstorm conditions if at ground level there is only a slowly-varying electric field of the thundercloud. The streamers may be induced by the fast-rising electric field of distant downward leaders or intracloud discharges. (author)

  2. Efficient Procedure to Compute the Microcanonical Volume of Initial Conditions that Lead to Escape Trajectories from a Multidimensional Potential Well

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Waalkens, Holger; Burbanks, Andrew; Wiggins, Stephen

    2005-01-01

    A procedure is presented for computing the phase space volume of initial conditions for trajectories that escape or ‘‘react’’ from a multidimensional potential well. The procedure combines a phase space transition state theory, which allows one to construct dividing surfaces that are free of local

  3. Features of the development of round jets for different initial conditions and in the presence of obstacles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kozlov, V. V.; Litvinenko, M. V.; Litvinenko, Yu. A.; Kozlov, G. V.

    2016-10-01

    The goal of this work is an experimental study of the influence of the initial conditions (nozzle configuration, mean velocity profile at the nozzle exit, surface roughness, and jet diameter) on the flow structure in a round jet by various methods: hot-wire anemometry, smoke visualization, and particle image velocimetry (PIV).

  4. On the initial conditions of time-dependent mean-field equations of evolution. Pt. 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Troudet, T.; Paris-11 Univ., 91 - Orsay

    1986-01-01

    We analyze the problem so far untouched of determining the initial mean-field wavefunction in the context of zero-temperature mean-field descriptions of time-dependent expectation values and quantum fluctuations of nuclear observables. The nucleus, at zero temperature, is taken to be in a low-lying excited many-body eigenstate and is approximated by the corresponding RPA wavefunction as a continuous superposition of coherent states (i.e. Slater determinants). A generating function Gsub(A)(lambda) for time-dependent expectation values and quantum fluctuations is constructed within the formalism of functional integration. By applying the saddle-point method to the functional action of Gsub(A)(lambda) and then taking its lambda-derivatives, we recover the well-known TDHF theory and propose a simple determination of the initial Slater determinant for an appropriate mean-field description of time-dependent expectation values. The analog mean-field description of quadratic-quantum fluctuations proceeds similarly and in addition includes the contribution of the uncorrelated TDHF-RPA phonons coupled to collective excitations of the initial (static) mean-field configuration. When the collective TDHF-RPA excitations are solely taken into account, we obtain an improved version of the Balian-Veneroni dispersion formula by showing how to determine the initial mean-field wavefunction. By first taking the lambda-derivatives of Gsub(A)(lambda) before applying the saddle-point method, the initial mean-field wavefunction is found to be non-linearly coupled to the mean-field dynamics themselves. In return, and in contrast to the first quantization scheme, these both depend non-trivially upon the observable A being measured so that approximations must be proposed to simplify the resulting mean-field equations. (orig.)

  5. Bio-predictive tablet disintegration: effect of water diffusivity, fluid flow, food composition and test conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radwan, Asma; Wagner, Manfred; Amidon, Gordon L; Langguth, Peter

    2014-06-16

    Food intake may delay tablet disintegration. Current in vitro methods have little predictive potential to account for such effects. The effect of a variety of factors on the disintegration of immediate release tablets in the gastrointestinal tract has been identified. They include viscosity of the media, precipitation of food constituents on the surface of the tablet and reduction of water diffusivity in the media as well as changes in the hydrodynamics in the surrounding media of the solid dosage form. In order to improve the predictability of food affecting the disintegration of a dosage form, tablet disintegration in various types of a liquefied meal has been studied under static vs. dynamic (agitative) conditions. Viscosity, water diffusivity, osmolality and Reynolds numbers for the different media were characterized. A quantitative model is introduced which predicts the influence of the Reynolds number in the tablet disintegration apparatus on the disintegration time. Viscosity, water diffusivity and media flow velocity are shown to be important factors affecting dosage form disintegration. The results suggest the necessity of considering these parameters when designing a predictive model for simulating the in vivo conditions. Based on these experiments and knowledge on in vivo hydrodynamics in the GI tract, it is concluded that the disintegration tester under current pharmacopoeial conditions is operated in an unphysiological mode and no bioprediction may be derived. Recommendations regarding alternative mode of operation are made. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. An Outflow Boundary Condition Model for Noninvasive Prediction of Fractional Flow Reserve in Diseased Coronary Arteries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fayssal, Iyad A; Moukalled, Fadl; Alam, Samir; Isma'eel, Hussain

    2018-04-01

    This paper reports on a new boundary condition formulation to model the total coronary myocardial flow and resistance characteristics of the myocardial vascular bed for any specific patient when considered for noninvasive diagnosis of ischemia. The developed boundary condition model gives an implicit representation of the downstream truncated coronary bed. Further, it is based on incorporating patient-specific physiological parameters that can be noninvasively extracted to account for blood flow demand to the myocardium at rest and hyperemic conditions. The model is coupled to a steady three-dimensional (3D) collocated pressure-based finite volume flow solver and used to characterize the "functional significance" of a patient diseased coronary artery segment without the need for predicting the hemodynamics of the entire arterial system. Predictions generated with this boundary condition provide a deep understanding of the inherent challenges behind noninvasive image-based diagnostic techniques when applied to human diseased coronary arteries. The overall numerical method and formulated boundary condition model are validated via two computational-based procedures and benchmarked with available measured data. The newly developed boundary condition is used via a designed computational methodology to (a) confirm the need for incorporating patient-specific physiological parameters when modeling the downstream coronary resistance, (b) explain the discrepancies presented in the literature between measured and computed fractional flow reserve (FFRCT), and (c) discuss the current limitations and future challenges in shifting to noninvasive assessment of ischemia.

  7. Scientific basis for long-term prediction of waste-form performance under repository conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mendel, J.E.

    1982-10-01

    This paper presents an overview of the fundamental principles involved in predicting long-term performance of waste forms by the as-low-as-reasonably-achievable approach. Repository conditions which make up the waste-form environment, the aging of the waste form, the important radionuclides in the waste form, the chemistry of repository fluids, and multicomponent interactions testing were considered in order to describe these principles. The need for confidence limits on the prediction of waste-form performance and ways of achieving a definition of the confidence limits are discussed

  8. Tagged particle in single-file diffusion with arbitrary initial conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cividini, J.; Kundu, A.

    2017-08-01

    We compute the full probability distribution of the positions of a tagged particle exactly for the given arbitrary initial positions of the particles, and for general single-particle propagators. We consider the thermodynamic limit of our exact expressions in quenched and annealed settings. For a particular class of single-particle propagators, the exact formula is expressed in a simple integral form in the quenched case whereas in the annealed case, it is expressed as a simple combination of Bessel functions. In particular, we focus on the step and the power-law initial configurations. In the former case, a drift is induced even when the one-particle propagators are symmetric. On the other hand, in the later case the scaling of the cumulants of the position of the tracer differs from the uniform case. We provide numerical verifications of our results.

  9. Initial conditions for hydrodynamics from weakly coupled pre-equilibrium evolution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mazeliauskas, Aleksas

    2017-01-01

    We use leading order effective kinetic theory to simulate the pre-equilibrium evolution of transverse energy and flow perturbations in heavy-ion collisions. We provide a Green function which propagates the initial perturbations of the energy-momentum tensor to a time when hydrodynamics becomes applicable. With this map, the pre-thermal evolution from saturated nuclei to hydrodynamics can be modeled in the framework of weakly coupled QCD. (paper)

  10. Market development of organic products in Europe: conditions and role of Organic Marketing Initiatives

    OpenAIRE

    Schmit, Otto; Fontguyon, Guy de; Sans, Pierre

    2007-01-01

    The contribution presents some of the main results of a European program of investigation (titled Organic Marketing Initiatives – OMIs – and Rural Development). Firstly, consumer behavior, as well as attitudes, expectations, motives and buying barriers concerning organic food are explored. Then, authors give a brief overview of the organic market analysis of 18 European countries, based on a Delphi inquiry. Finally, the third part highlights the role of OMIs in the organic market development ...

  11. Initial conditions of non-equilibrium quark-gluon plasma evolution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shmatov, S.V.

    2002-01-01

    In accordance with the hydrodynamic Bjorken limit, the initial energy density and temperature for a chemical non-equilibrium quark-gluon system formed in the heavy ion collisions at the LHC are computed. The dependence of this value on the type of colliding nuclei and the collision impact parameter is studied. The principle possibility of the non-equilibrium quark-gluon plasma (QGP) formation in the light nuclei collisions is shown. The life time of QGP is calculated. (author)

  12. Initial conditions for hydrodynamics from weakly coupled pre-equilibrium evolution

    CERN Document Server

    Keegan, Liam; Mazeliauskas, Aleksas; Teaney, Derek

    2016-01-01

    We use effective kinetic theory, accurate at weak coupling, to simulate the pre-equilibrium evolution of transverse energy and flow perturbations in heavy-ion collisions. We provide a Green function which propagates the initial perturbations to the energy-momentum tensor at a time when hydrodynamics becomes applicable. With this map, the complete pre-thermal evolution from saturated nuclei to hydrodynamics can be modelled in a perturbatively controlled way.

  13. Prediction suppression in monkey inferotemporal cortex depends on the conditional probability between images.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramachandran, Suchitra; Meyer, Travis; Olson, Carl R

    2016-01-01

    When monkeys view two images in fixed sequence repeatedly over days and weeks, neurons in area TE of the inferotemporal cortex come to exhibit prediction suppression. The trailing image elicits only a weak response when presented following the leading image that preceded it during training. Induction of prediction suppression might depend either on the contiguity of the images, as determined by their co-occurrence and captured in the measure of joint probability P(A,B), or on their contingency, as determined by their correlation and as captured in the measures of conditional probability P(A|B) and P(B|A). To distinguish between these possibilities, we measured prediction suppression after imposing training regimens that held P(A,B) constant but varied P(A|B) and P(B|A). We found that reducing either P(A|B) or P(B|A) during training attenuated prediction suppression as measured during subsequent testing. We conclude that prediction suppression depends on contingency, as embodied in the predictive relations between the images, and not just on contiguity, as embodied in their co-occurrence. Copyright © 2016 the American Physiological Society.

  14. Consideration of loading conditions initiated by thermal transients in PWR pressure vessels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Azodi; Glahn; Kersting; Schulz; Jansky.

    1983-01-01

    This report describes the present state of PWR-plants in the Federal Republic of Germany with respect to - the design of the primary pressure boundary - the analysis of thermal transients and resulting loads - the material conditions and neutron fluence - the requirements for protection against fast fracture. The experimental and analytical research and development programs are delineated together with some foreign R and D programs. It is shown that the parameters investigated (loading condition, crack shape and orientation etc.) cover a broad range. Extensive analytical investigations are emphasized. (orig./RW) [de

  15. Initial conditions for cosmological N-body simulations of the scalar sector of theories of Newtonian, Relativistic and Modified Gravity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Valkenburg, Wessel; Hu, Bin

    2015-01-01

    We present a description for setting initial particle displacements and field values for simulations of arbitrary metric theories of gravity, for perfect and imperfect fluids with arbitrary characteristics. We extend the Zel'dovich Approximation to nontrivial theories of gravity, and show how scale dependence implies curved particle paths, even in the entirely linear regime of perturbations. For a viable choice of Effective Field Theory of Modified Gravity, initial conditions set at high redshifts are affected at the level of up to 5% at Mpc scales, which exemplifies the importance of going beyond Λ-Cold Dark Matter initial conditions for modifications of gravity outside of the quasi-static approximation. In addition, we show initial conditions for a simulation where a scalar modification of gravity is modelled in a Lagrangian particle-like description. Our description paves the way for simulations and mock galaxy catalogs under theories of gravity beyond the standard model, crucial for progress towards precision tests of gravity and cosmology

  16. Initial experience with computed tomographic colonography applied for noncolorectal cancerous conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ichikawa, Tamaki; Kawada, Shuichi; Hirata, Satoru; Ikeda, Shu; Sato, Yuuki; Imai, Yutaka

    2011-01-01

    The aim of this study was to asses retrospectively the performance of computed tomography colonography (CTC) for noncolorectal cancerous conditions. A total of 44 patients with non-colorectal cancerous conditions underwent CTC. We researched the indications for CTC or present illness and evaluated the CTC imaging findings. We assessed whether diagnosis by CTC reduced conventional colonoscopic examinations. A total of 47 examinations were performed in 44 patients. The indications for CTC or a present illness were as follows: 15 patients with impossible or incomplete colonoscopy, 7 with diverticular disease, 6 with malignancy (noncolorectal cancer), 6 with Crohn's disease, 4 suspected to have a submucosal tumor on colonoscopy, 2 with ischemic colitis, and 4 with various other diseases. Colonic findings were diagnosed on CTC in 36 examinations, and extracolonic findings were identified in 35 of 44 patients. In all, 17 patients had undergone colonoscopy previously, 9 (52.9%) of whom did not require further colonoscopy by CTC. Five patients underwent colonoscopy after CTC. The indications for CTC were varied for patients with noncolorectal cancerous conditions. CTC examinations could be performed safely. Unlike colonoscopy or CT without preparation, CTC revealed colonic and extracolonic findings and may reduce the indication of colonoscopy in patients with noncolorectal cancerous conditions. (author)

  17. FORSIM, Solution of Ordinary or Partial Differential Equation with Initial Conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carver, M.B.

    1985-01-01

    1 - Description of problem or function: FORSIM is a FORTRAN oriented simulation program which automates the continuous transient solution of systems of ordinary and/or partial differential equations. The user writes his equations in a FORTRAN subroutine, following prescribed rules, and loads this routine along with the executive routines. The executive routines then read in initial data supplied by the user and proceed with the integration. 2 - Method of solution: Partial differential equations are converted to coupled ordinary differential equations by suitable discretization formulae. Integration is done by variable order, variable step-size error controlled algorithms. 3 - Restrictions on the complexity of the problem - Maximum of: 1000 ordinary differential equations

  18. Study on light water reactor fuel behavior under reactivity initiated accident condition in TREAT

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ohnishi, Nobuaki; Ishijima, Kiyomi; Ochiai, Masaaki; Tanzawa, Sadamitsu; Uemura, Mutsumi

    1981-05-01

    This report reviews the results of the fuel failure experiments performed in TREAT in the U.S.A. simulating Reactivity Initiated Accidents. One of the main purposes of the TREAT experiments is the study of the fuel failure behavior, and the other is the study of the molten fuel-water coolant interaction and the consequent hydrogen behavior. This report mainly shows the results of the TREAT experiments studying the fuel failure behavior in Light Water Reactor, and then it describes the fuel failure threshold and the fuel failure mechanism, considering the results of the photographic experiments of the fuel failure behavior with transparent capsules. (author)

  19. On the stochastic approach to inflation and the initial conditions in the universe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pollock, M.D.

    1986-05-01

    By applying stochastic methods to a theory in which a potential V(Φ) causes a period of quasi-expansion of the universe, Starobinsky has derived an expression for the probability distribution P(V) appropriate to chaotic inflation in the classical approximation. We obtain the corresponding expression for a broken-symmetry theory of gravity. For the Coleman-Weinberg potential, it appears most probable that the initial value of Φ is Φ i O , in which case inflation occurs naturally, because V(Φ i )>O

  20. The effect of initial conditions on the electromagnetic radiation generation in type III solar radio bursts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schmitz, H.; Tsiklauri, D.

    2013-01-01

    Extensive particle-in-cell simulations of fast electron beams injected in a background magnetised plasma with a decreasing density profile were carried out. These simulations were intended to further shed light on a newly proposed mechanism for the generation of electromagnetic waves in type III solar radio bursts [D. Tsiklauri, Phys. Plasmas, 18, 052903 (2011)]. The numerical simulations were carried out using different density profiles and fast electron distribution functions. It is shown that electromagnetic L and R modes are excited by the transverse current, initially imposed on the system. In the course of the simulations, no further interaction of the electron beam with the background plasma could be observed

  1. TURBULENCE SETS THE INITIAL CONDITIONS FOR STAR FORMATION IN HIGH-PRESSURE ENVIRONMENTS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rathborne, J. M.; Contreras, Y.; Longmore, S. N.; Bastian, N.; Jackson, J. M.; Kruijssen, J. M. D.; Alves, J. F.; Bally, J.; Foster, J. B.; Garay, G.; Testi, L.; Walsh, A. J.

    2014-01-01

    Despite the simplicity of theoretical models of supersonically turbulent, isothermal media, their predictions successfully match the observed gas structure and star formation activity within low-pressure (P/k < 10 5 K cm –3 ) molecular clouds in the solar neighborhood. However, it is unknown whether or not these theories extend to clouds in high-pressure (P/k > 10 7 K cm –3 ) environments, like those in the Galaxy's inner 200 pc central molecular zone (CMZ) and in the early universe. Here, we present Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array 3 mm dust continuum emission within a cloud, G0.253+0.016, which is immersed in the high-pressure environment of the CMZ. While the log-normal shape and dispersion of its column density probability distribution function (PDF) are strikingly similar to those of solar neighborhood clouds, there is one important quantitative difference: its mean column density is one to two orders of magnitude higher. Both the similarity and difference in the PDF compared to those derived from solar neighborhood clouds match predictions of turbulent cloud models given the high-pressure environment of the CMZ. The PDF shows a small deviation from log-normal at high column densities confirming the youth of G0.253+0.016. Its lack of star formation is consistent with the theoretically predicted, environmentally dependent volume density threshold for star formation which is orders of magnitude higher than that derived for solar neighborhood clouds. Our results provide the first empirical evidence that the current theoretical understanding of molecular cloud structure derived from the solar neighborhood also holds in high-pressure environments. We therefore suggest that these theories may be applicable to understand star formation in the early universe

  2. TURBULENCE SETS THE INITIAL CONDITIONS FOR STAR FORMATION IN HIGH-PRESSURE ENVIRONMENTS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rathborne, J. M.; Contreras, Y. [CSIRO Astronomy and Space Science, P.O. Box 76, Epping NSW, 1710 (Australia); Longmore, S. N.; Bastian, N. [Astrophysics Research Institute, Liverpool John Moores University, 146 Brownlow Hill, Liverpool L3 5RF (United Kingdom); Jackson, J. M. [Institute for Astrophysical Research, Boston University, Boston, MA 02215 (United States); Kruijssen, J. M. D. [Max-Planck Institut fur Astrophysik, Karl-Schwarzschild-Strasse 1, D-85748, Garching (Germany); Alves, J. F. [University of Vienna, Türkenschanzstrasse 17, A-1180 Vienna (Austria); Bally, J. [Center for Astrophysics and Space Astronomy, University of Colorado, UCB 389, Boulder, CO 8030 (United States); Foster, J. B. [Department of Astronomy, Yale University, P.O. Box 208101 New Haven, CT 06520-8101 (United States); Garay, G. [Universidad de Chile, Camino El Observatorio1515, Las Condes, Santiago (Chile); Testi, L. [European Southern Observatory, Karl-Schwarzschild-Strasse 2, D-85748 Garching bei Munchen (Germany); Walsh, A. J., E-mail: Jill.Rathborne@csiro.au [International Centre for Radio Astronomy Research, Curtin University, GPO Box U1987, Perth (Australia)

    2014-11-10

    Despite the simplicity of theoretical models of supersonically turbulent, isothermal media, their predictions successfully match the observed gas structure and star formation activity within low-pressure (P/k < 10{sup 5} K cm{sup –3}) molecular clouds in the solar neighborhood. However, it is unknown whether or not these theories extend to clouds in high-pressure (P/k > 10{sup 7} K cm{sup –3}) environments, like those in the Galaxy's inner 200 pc central molecular zone (CMZ) and in the early universe. Here, we present Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array 3 mm dust continuum emission within a cloud, G0.253+0.016, which is immersed in the high-pressure environment of the CMZ. While the log-normal shape and dispersion of its column density probability distribution function (PDF) are strikingly similar to those of solar neighborhood clouds, there is one important quantitative difference: its mean column density is one to two orders of magnitude higher. Both the similarity and difference in the PDF compared to those derived from solar neighborhood clouds match predictions of turbulent cloud models given the high-pressure environment of the CMZ. The PDF shows a small deviation from log-normal at high column densities confirming the youth of G0.253+0.016. Its lack of star formation is consistent with the theoretically predicted, environmentally dependent volume density threshold for star formation which is orders of magnitude higher than that derived for solar neighborhood clouds. Our results provide the first empirical evidence that the current theoretical understanding of molecular cloud structure derived from the solar neighborhood also holds in high-pressure environments. We therefore suggest that these theories may be applicable to understand star formation in the early universe.

  3. Predictions of structural integrity of steam generator tubes under normal operating, accident, and severe accident conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Majumdar, S.

    1996-09-01

    Available models for predicting failure of flawed and unflawed steam generator tubes under normal operating, accident, and severe accident conditions are reviewed. Tests conducted in the past, though limited, tended to show that the earlier flow-stress model for part-through-wall axial cracks overestimated the damaging influence of deep cracks. This observation is confirmed by further tests at high temperatures as well as by finite element analysis. A modified correlation for deep cracks can correct this shortcoming of the model. Recent tests have shown that lateral restraint can significantly increase the failure pressure of tubes with unsymmetrical circumferential cracks. This observation is confirmed by finite element analysis. The rate-independent flow stress models that are successful at low temperatures cannot predict the rate sensitive failure behavior of steam generator tubes at high temperatures. Therefore, a creep rupture model for predicting failure is developed and validated by tests under varying temperature and pressure loading expected during severe accidents

  4. A robust model predictive control strategy for improving the control performance of air-conditioning systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang Gongsheng; Wang Shengwei; Xu Xinhua

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents a robust model predictive control strategy for improving the supply air temperature control of air-handling units by dealing with the associated uncertainties and constraints directly. This strategy uses a first-order plus time-delay model with uncertain time-delay and system gain to describe air-conditioning process of an air-handling unit usually operating at various weather conditions. The uncertainties of the time-delay and system gain, which imply the nonlinearities and the variable dynamic characteristics, are formulated using an uncertainty polytope. Based on this uncertainty formulation, an offline LMI-based robust model predictive control algorithm is employed to design a robust controller for air-handling units which can guarantee a good robustness subject to uncertainties and constraints. The proposed robust strategy is evaluated in a dynamic simulation environment of a variable air volume air-conditioning system in various operation conditions by comparing with a conventional PI control strategy. The robustness analysis of both strategies under different weather conditions is also presented.

  5. Tools and techniques for ageing predictions in nuclear reactors through condition monitoring

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Verma, R.M.P.

    1994-01-01

    To operate the nuclear reactors beyond their design predicted life is gaining importance because of huge replacement and decommissioning costs. But experience shows that nuclear plant safety and reliability may decline in the later years of plant life due to ageing degradation. Ageing of nuclear plant components, structures and systems, if unmitigated reduces their safety margins provided in the design and thus increases risks to public health and safety. These safety margins must be monitored throughout plant service life including any extended life. Condition monitoring of nuclear reactor components/equipment and systems can be done to study the effect of ageing, status of safety margins and effect of corrective and mitigating actions taken. The tools and techniques of condition monitoring are also important in failure trending, predictive maintenance, evaluation of scheduled maintenance, in mitigation of ageing, life extension and reliability studies. (author). 1 fig., 1 annexure

  6. Entropy Growth in the Early Universe and Confirmation of Initial Big Bang Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beckwith, Andrew

    2009-09-01

    This paper shows how increased entropy values from an initially low big bang level can be measured experimentally by counting relic gravitons. Furthermore the physical mechanism of this entropy increase is explained via analogies with early-universe phase transitions. The role of Jack Ng's (2007, 2008a, 2008b) revised infinite quantum statistics in the physics of gravitational wave detection is acknowledged. Ng's infinite quantum statistics can be used to show that ΔS~ΔNgravitons is a startmg point to the increasing net universe cosmological entropy. Finally, in a nod to similarities AS ZPE analysis, it is important to note that the resulting ΔS~ΔNgravitons ≠ 1088, that in fact it is much lower, allowing for evaluating initial graviton production as an emergent field phenomena, which may be similar to how ZPE states can be used to extract energy from a vacuum if entropy is not maximized. The rapid increase in entropy so alluded to without near sudden increases to 1088 may be enough to allow successful modeling of relic graviton production for entropy in a manner similar to ZPE energy extraction from a vacuum state.

  7. Resting heart rate variability predicts safety learning and fear extinction in an interoceptive fear conditioning paradigm.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meike Pappens

    Full Text Available This study aimed to investigate whether interindividual differences in autonomic inhibitory control predict safety learning and fear extinction in an interoceptive fear conditioning paradigm. Data from a previously reported study (N = 40 were extended (N = 17 and re-analyzed to test whether healthy participants' resting heart rate variability (HRV - a proxy of cardiac vagal tone - predicts learning performance. The conditioned stimulus (CS was a slight sensation of breathlessness induced by a flow resistor, the unconditioned stimulus (US was an aversive short-lasting suffocation experience induced by a complete occlusion of the breathing circuitry. During acquisition, the paired group received 6 paired CS-US presentations; the control group received 6 explicitly unpaired CS-US presentations. In the extinction phase, both groups were exposed to 6 CS-only presentations. Measures included startle blink EMG, skin conductance responses (SCR and US-expectancy ratings. Resting HRV significantly predicted the startle blink EMG learning curves both during acquisition and extinction. In the unpaired group, higher levels of HRV at rest predicted safety learning to the CS during acquisition. In the paired group, higher levels of HRV were associated with better extinction. Our findings suggest that the strength or integrity of prefrontal inhibitory mechanisms involved in safety- and extinction learning can be indexed by HRV at rest.

  8. Puzzling initial conditions in the R{sub h} = ct model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bengochea, Gabriel R. [CONICET-Universidad de Buenos Aires, Instituto de Astronomia y Fisica del Espacio (IAFE), Buenos Aires (Argentina); Leon, Gabriel [Universidad de Buenos Aires, Ciudad Universitaria, PabI, Departamento de Fisica, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Buenos Aires (Argentina)

    2016-11-15

    In recent years, some studies have drawn attention to the lack of large-angle correlations in the observed cosmic microwave background (CMB) temperature anisotropies with respect to that predicted within the standard ΛCDM model. Lately, it has been argued that such a lack of correlations could be explained in the framework of the so-called R{sub h} = ct model without inflation. The aim of this work is to study whether there is a mechanism to generate, through a quantum field theory, the primordial power spectrum presented by these authors. Specifically, we consider two different scenarios: first, we assume a scalar field dominating the early Universe in the R{sub h} = ct cosmological model, and second, we deal with the possibility of adding an early inflationary phase to the mentioned model. During the analysis of the consistency between the predicted and observed amplitudes of the CMB temperature anisotropies in both scenarios, we run into deep issues which indicate that it is not clear how to characterize the primordial quantum perturbations within the R{sub h} = ct model. (orig.)

  9. Lack of anomalous diffusion in linear translationally-invariant systems determined by only one initial condition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khorrami, Mohammad; Shariati, Ahmad; Aghamohammadi, Amir; Fatollahi, Amir H.

    2012-01-01

    It is shown that as far as the linear diffusion equation meets both time- and space-translational invariance, the time dependence of a moment of degree α is a polynomial of degree at most equal to α, while all connected moments are at most linear functions of time. As a special case, the variance is an at most linear function of time. -- Highlights: ► The sufficient conditions for having the non-anomalous diffusion are given. ► Conditions are linearity, space-time translation invariance, solution uniqueness. ► Some versions of the fractional derivatives lack the translational invariance. ► It is shown the encoded inhomogeneity in derivatives causes anomalous behavior.

  10. Lack of anomalous diffusion in linear translationally-invariant systems determined by only one initial condition

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Khorrami, Mohammad, E-mail: mamwad@mailaps.org [Department of Physics, Alzahra University, Tehran 19938-93973 (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Shariati, Ahmad, E-mail: shariati@mailaps.org [Department of Physics, Alzahra University, Tehran 19938-93973 (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Aghamohammadi, Amir, E-mail: mohamadi@alzahra.ac.ir [Department of Physics, Alzahra University, Tehran 19938-93973 (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Fatollahi, Amir H., E-mail: ahfatol@gmail.com [Department of Physics, Alzahra University, Tehran 19938-93973 (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2012-01-16

    It is shown that as far as the linear diffusion equation meets both time- and space-translational invariance, the time dependence of a moment of degree α is a polynomial of degree at most equal to α, while all connected moments are at most linear functions of time. As a special case, the variance is an at most linear function of time. -- Highlights: ► The sufficient conditions for having the non-anomalous diffusion are given. ► Conditions are linearity, space-time translation invariance, solution uniqueness. ► Some versions of the fractional derivatives lack the translational invariance. ► It is shown the encoded inhomogeneity in derivatives causes anomalous behavior.

  11. Surface conditioning with Escherichia coli cell wall components can reduce biofilm formation by decreasing initial adhesion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luciana C. Gomes

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Bacterial adhesion and biofilm formation on food processing surfaces pose major risks to human health. Non-efficient cleaning of equipment surfaces and piping can act as a conditioning layer that affects the development of a new biofilm post-disinfection. We have previously shown that surface conditioning with cell extracts could reduce biofilm formation. In the present work, we hypothesized that E. coli cell wall components could be implicated in this phenomena and therefore mannose, myristic acid and palmitic acid were tested as conditioning agents. To evaluate the effect of surface conditioning and flow topology on biofilm formation, assays were performed in agitated 96-well microtiter plates and in a parallel plate flow chamber (PPFC, both operated at the same average wall shear stress (0.07 Pa as determined by computational fluid dynamics (CFD. It was observed that when the 96-well microtiter plate and the PPFC were used to form biofilms at the same shear stress, similar results were obtained. This shows that the referred hydrodynamic feature may be a good scale-up parameter from high-throughput platforms to larger scale flow cell systems as the PPFC used in this study. Mannose did not have any effect on E. coli biofilm formation, but myristic and palmitic acid inhibited biofilm development by decreasing cell adhesion (in about 50%. These results support the idea that in food processing equipment where biofilm formation is not critical below a certain threshold, bacterial lysis and adsorption of cell components to the surface may reduce biofilm buildup and extend the operational time.

  12. Determination of initial conditions for heat exchanger placed in furnace by burning pellets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Durčanský, Peter; Jandačka, Jozef; Kapjor, Andrej

    2014-08-01

    Objective of the experimental facility and subsequent measurements is generally determine whether the expected physical properties of the verification, identification of the real behavior of the proposed system, or part thereof. For the design of heat exchanger for combined energy machine is required to identify and verify a large number of parameters. One of these are the boundary conditions of heat exchanger and pellets burner.

  13. INITIATORS AND TRIGGERING CONDITIONS FOR ADAPTIVE AUTOMATION IN ADVANCED SMALL MODULAR REACTORS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Katya L Le Blanc; Johanna h Oxstrand

    2014-04-01

    It is anticipated that Advanced Small Modular Reactors (AdvSMRs) will employ high degrees of automation. High levels of automation can enhance system performance, but often at the cost of reduced human performance. Automation can lead to human out-of the loop issues, unbalanced workload, complacency, and other problems if it is not designed properly. Researchers have proposed adaptive automation (defined as dynamic or flexible allocation of functions) as a way to get the benefits of higher levels of automation without the human performance costs. Adaptive automation has the potential to balance operator workload and enhance operator situation awareness by allocating functions to the operators in a way that is sensitive to overall workload and capabilities at the time of operation. However, there still a number of questions regarding how to effectively design adaptive automation to achieve that potential. One of those questions is related to how to initiate (or trigger) a shift in automation in order to provide maximal sensitivity to operator needs without introducing undesirable consequences (such as unpredictable mode changes). Several triggering mechanisms for shifts in adaptive automation have been proposed including: operator initiated, critical events, performance-based, physiological measurement, model-based, and hybrid methods. As part of a larger project to develop design guidance for human-automation collaboration in AdvSMRs, researchers at Idaho National Laboratory have investigated the effectiveness and applicability of each of these triggering mechanisms in the context of AdvSMR. Researchers reviewed the empirical literature on adaptive automation and assessed each triggering mechanism based on the human-system performance consequences of employing that mechanism. Researchers also assessed the practicality and feasibility of using the mechanism in the context of an AdvSMR control room. Results indicate that there are tradeoffs associated with each

  14. Can multivariate models based on MOAKS predict OA knee pain? Data from the Osteoarthritis Initiative

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luna-Gómez, Carlos D.; Zanella-Calzada, Laura A.; Galván-Tejada, Jorge I.; Galván-Tejada, Carlos E.; Celaya-Padilla, José M.

    2017-03-01

    Osteoarthritis is the most common rheumatic disease in the world. Knee pain is the most disabling symptom in the disease, the prediction of pain is one of the targets in preventive medicine, this can be applied to new therapies or treatments. Using the magnetic resonance imaging and the grading scales, a multivariate model based on genetic algorithms is presented. Using a predictive model can be useful to associate minor structure changes in the joint with the future knee pain. Results suggest that multivariate models can be predictive with future knee chronic pain. All models; T0, T1 and T2, were statistically significant, all p values were 0.60.

  15. Relation Between Initial Cosmological Conditions and the Properties of Dark Matter Haloes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Semenov, Vadim

    2013-01-01

    The core-cusp problem is one of the essential issues in modern cosmology. The Entropy Theory of haloes Evolution recently suggested by Lukash, Doroshkevich and Mikheeva is one of the possible solutions to this problem. This work compares some results of numerical simulation of Large-Scale Structure with the conclusions of the Entropy Theory in order to verify this theory. The numerical simulation was performed in a volume 100 Mpc/h in a side using ∼ 17 million particles. Dark matter particles, which then form virialized haloes, were found in the initial perturbation field. This work investigates the distribution of these dark matter particles and measures the velocity dispersion profiles. It also traces evolution of haloes entropy profiles. On the whole, simulation results correspond to Entropy Theory of haloes evolution

  16. Auto-detection of Halo CME Parameters as the Initial Condition of Solar Wind Propagation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Kyu-Cheol; Park, Mi-Young; Kim, Jae-Hun

    2017-12-01

    Halo coronal mass ejections (CMEs) originating from solar activities give rise to geomagnetic storms when they reach the Earth. Variations in the geomagnetic field during a geomagnetic storm can damage satellites, communication systems, electrical power grids, and power systems, and induce currents. Therefore, automated techniques for detecting and analyzing halo CMEs have been eliciting increasing attention for the monitoring and prediction of the space weather environment. In this study, we developed an algorithm to sense and detect halo CMEs using large angle and spectrometric coronagraph (LASCO) C3 coronagraph images from the solar and heliospheric observatory (SOHO) satellite. In addition, we developed an image processing technique to derive the morphological and dynamical characteristics of halo CMEs, namely, the source location, width, actual CME speed, and arrival time at a 21.5 solar radius. The proposed halo CME automatic analysis model was validated using a model of the past three halo CME events. As a result, a solar event that occurred at 03:38 UT on Mar. 23, 2014 was predicted to arrive at Earth at 23:00 UT on Mar. 25, whereas the actual arrival time was at 04:30 UT on Mar. 26, which is a difference of 5 hr and 30 min. In addition, a solar event that occurred at 12:55 UT on Apr. 18, 2014 was estimated to arrive at Earth at 16:00 UT on Apr. 20, which is 4 hr ahead of the actual arrival time of 20:00 UT on the same day. However, the estimation error was reduced significantly compared to the ENLIL model. As a further study, the model will be applied to many more events for validation and testing, and after such tests are completed, on-line service will be provided at the Korean Space Weather Center to detect halo CMEs and derive the model parameters.

  17. Identifying black swans in NextGen: predicting human performance in off-nominal conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wickens, Christopher D; Hooey, Becky L; Gore, Brian F; Sebok, Angelia; Koenicke, Corey S

    2009-10-01

    The objective is to validate a computational model of visual attention against empirical data--derived from a meta-analysis--of pilots' failure to notice safety-critical unexpected events. Many aircraft accidents have resulted, in part, because of failure to notice nonsalient unexpected events outside of foveal vision, illustrating the phenomenon of change blindness. A model of visual noticing, N-SEEV (noticing-salience, expectancy, effort, and value), was developed to predict these failures. First, 25 studies that reported objective data on miss rate for unexpected events in high-fidelity cockpit simulations were identified, and their miss rate data pooled across five variables (phase of flight, event expectancy, event location, presence of a head-up display, and presence of a highway-in-the-sky display). Second, the parameters of the N-SEEV model were tailored to mimic these dichotomies. The N-SEEV model output predicted variance in the obtained miss rate (r = .73). The individual miss rates of all six dichotomous conditions were predicted within 14%, and four of these were predicted within 7%. The N-SEEV model, developed on the basis of an independent data set, was able to successfully predict variance in this safety-critical measure of pilot response to abnormal circumstances, as collected from the literature. As new technology and procedures are envisioned for the future airspace, it is important to predict if these may compromise safety in terms of pilots' failing to notice unexpected events. Computational models such as N-SEEV support cost-effective means of making such predictions.

  18. Incidence of WHO stage 3 and 4 conditions following initiation of anti-retroviral therapy in resource limited settings.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrea J Curtis

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVES: To determine the incidence of WHO clinical stage 3 and 4 conditions during early anti-retroviral therapy (ART in resource limited settings (RLS. DESIGN/SETTING: A descriptive analysis of routine program data collected prospectively from 25 Médecins Sans Frontières supported HIV treatment programs in eight countries between 2002 and 2010. SUBJECTS/PARTICIPANTS: 35,349 study participants with median follow-up on ART of 1.33 years (IQR 0.51-2.41. OUTCOME MEASURES: Incidence in 100 person-years of WHO stage 3 or 4 conditions during 5 periods after ART initiation. Diagnoses of conditions were made according to WHO criteria and relied upon clinical assessments supported by basic laboratory investigations. RESULTS: The incidence of any WHO clinical stage 3 or 4 condition over 3 years was 40.02 per 100 person-years (31.77 for stage 3 and 8.25 for stage 4. The incidence of stage 3 and 4 conditions fell by over 97% between months 0-3 and months 25-36 (77.81 to 2.40 for stage 3 and 28.70 to 0.64 for stage 4. During months 0-3 pulmonary tuberculosis was the most common condition diagnosed in adults (incidence 22.24 per 100 person-years and children aged 5-14 years (25.76 and oral candidiasis was the most common in children <5 years (25.79. Overall incidences were higher in Africa compared with Asia (43.98 versus 12.97 for stage 3 and 8.98 versus 7.05 for stage 4 conditions, p<0.001. Pulmonary tuberculosis, weight loss, oral and oesophageal candidiasis, chronic diarrhoea, HIV wasting syndrome and severe bacterial infections were more common in Africa. Extra-pulmonary tuberculosis, non-tuberculous mycobacterial infection, cryptococcosis, penicilliosis and toxoplasmosis were more common in Asia. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of WHO stage 3 and 4 conditions during the early period after ART initiation in RLS is high, but greatly reduces over time. This is likely due to both the benefits of ART and deaths of the sickest patients occurring shortly

  19. Comparison of Damage Models for Predicting the Non-Linear Response of Laminates Under Matrix Dominated Loading Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuecker, Clara; Davila, Carlos G.; Rose, Cheryl A.

    2010-01-01

    Five models for matrix damage in fiber reinforced laminates are evaluated for matrix-dominated loading conditions under plane stress and are compared both qualitatively and quantitatively. The emphasis of this study is on a comparison of the response of embedded plies subjected to a homogeneous stress state. Three of the models are specifically designed for modeling the non-linear response due to distributed matrix cracking under homogeneous loading, and also account for non-linear (shear) behavior prior to the onset of cracking. The remaining two models are localized damage models intended for predicting local failure at stress concentrations. The modeling approaches of distributed vs. localized cracking as well as the different formulations of damage initiation and damage progression are compared and discussed.

  20. Modifying mixing and instability growth through the adjustment of initial conditions in a high-energy-density counter-propagating shear experiment on OMEGA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Merritt, E. C.; Doss, F. W.; Loomis, E. N.; Flippo, K. A.; Kline, J. L.

    2015-01-01

    Counter-propagating shear experiments conducted at the OMEGA Laser Facility have been evaluating the effect of target initial conditions, specifically the characteristics of a tracer foil located at the shear boundary, on Kelvin-Helmholtz instability evolution and experiment transition toward nonlinearity and turbulence in the high-energy-density (HED) regime. Experiments are focused on both identifying and uncoupling the dependence of the model initial turbulent length scale in variable-density turbulence models of k-ϵ type on competing physical instability seed lengths as well as developing a path toward fully developed turbulent HED experiments. We present results from a series of experiments controllably and independently varying two initial types of scale lengths in the experiment: the thickness and surface roughness (surface perturbation scale spectrum) of a tracer layer at the shear interface. We show that decreasing the layer thickness and increasing the surface roughness both have the ability to increase the relative mixing in the system, and thus theoretically decrease the time required to begin transitioning to turbulence in the system. We also show that we can connect a change in observed mix width growth due to increased foil surface roughness to an analytically predicted change in model initial turbulent scale lengths

  1. Machine and lubricant condition monitoring for extended equipment lifetimes and predictive maintenance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lukas, M; Anderson, D P [Spectro Incorporated, Littleton, Massachusetts (United States)

    1998-12-31

    Predictive maintenance has gained wide acceptance as a cost cutting strategy in modern industry. Condition monitoring by lubricant analysis is one of the basic tools of a predictive maintenance program along with vibration monitoring, performance monitoring and thermography. In today`s modern power generation, manufacturing, refinery, transportation, mining, and military operations, the cost of equipment maintenance, service, and lubricants are ever increasing. Parts, labor, equipment downtime and lubricant prices and disposal costs are a primary concern in a well run maintenance management program. Machine condition monitoring based on oil analysis has become a prerequisite in most maintenance programs. Few operations can afford not to implement a program if they wish to remain competitive, and in some cases, profitable. This presentation describes a comprehensive Machine Condition Monitoring Program based on oil analysis. Actual operational condition monitoring programs will be used to review basic components and analytical requirements. Case histories will be cited as examples of cost savings, reduced equipment downtime and increased efficiencies of maintenance programs through a well managed oil analysis program. (orig.)

  2. Machine and lubricant condition monitoring for extended equipment lifetimes and predictive maintenance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lukas, M.; Anderson, D.P. [Spectro Incorporated, Littleton, Massachusetts (United States)

    1997-12-31

    Predictive maintenance has gained wide acceptance as a cost cutting strategy in modern industry. Condition monitoring by lubricant analysis is one of the basic tools of a predictive maintenance program along with vibration monitoring, performance monitoring and thermography. In today`s modern power generation, manufacturing, refinery, transportation, mining, and military operations, the cost of equipment maintenance, service, and lubricants are ever increasing. Parts, labor, equipment downtime and lubricant prices and disposal costs are a primary concern in a well run maintenance management program. Machine condition monitoring based on oil analysis has become a prerequisite in most maintenance programs. Few operations can afford not to implement a program if they wish to remain competitive, and in some cases, profitable. This presentation describes a comprehensive Machine Condition Monitoring Program based on oil analysis. Actual operational condition monitoring programs will be used to review basic components and analytical requirements. Case histories will be cited as examples of cost savings, reduced equipment downtime and increased efficiencies of maintenance programs through a well managed oil analysis program. (orig.)

  3. Development of a Diagnostic Prediction Model for Conductive Conditions in Neonates Using Wideband Acoustic Immittance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myers, Joshua; Kei, Joseph; Aithal, Sreedevi; Aithal, Venkatesh; Driscoll, Carlie; Khan, Asaduzzaman; Manuel, Alehandrea; Joseph, Anjali; Malicka, Alicja N

    2018-03-03

    Wideband acoustic immittance (WAI) is an emerging test of middle-ear function with potential applications for neonates in screening and diagnostic settings. Previous large-scale diagnostic accuracy studies have assessed the performance of WAI against evoked otoacoustic emissions, but further research is needed using a more stringent reference standard. Research into suitable quantitative techniques to analyze the large volume of data produced by WAI is still in its infancy. Prediction models are an attractive method for analysis of multivariate data because they provide individualized probabilities that a subject has the condition. A clinically useful prediction model must accurately discriminate between normal and abnormal cases and be well calibrated (i.e., give accurate predictions). The present study aimed to develop a diagnostic prediction model for detecting conductive conditions in neonates using WAI. A stringent reference standard was created by combining results of high-frequency tympanometry and distortion product otoacoustic emissions. High-frequency tympanometry and distortion product otoacoustic emissions were performed on both ears of 629 healthy neonates to assess outer- and middle-ear function. Wideband absorbance and complex admittance (magnitude and phase) were measured at frequencies ranging from 226 to 8000 Hz in each neonate at ambient pressure using a click stimulus. Results from one ear of each neonate were used to develop the prediction model. WAI results were used as logistic regression predictors to model the probability that an ear had outer/middle-ear dysfunction. WAI variables were modeled both linearly and nonlinearly, to test whether allowing nonlinearity improved model fit and thus calibration. The best-fitting model was validated using the opposite ears and with bootstrap resampling. The best-fitting model used absorbance at 1000 and 2000 Hz, admittance magnitude at 1000 and 2000 Hz, and admittance phase at 1000 and 4000 Hz modeled

  4. Evaluation of optimization strategies and the effect of initial conditions on IMAT optimization using a leaf position optimization algorithm

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oliver, Mike; Jensen, Michael; Chen, Jeff; Wong, Eugene

    2009-01-01

    Intensity-modulated arc therapy (IMAT) is a rotational variant of intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) that can be implemented with or without angular dose rate variation. The purpose of this study is to assess optimization strategies and initial conditions using a leaf position optimization (LPO) algorithm altered for variable dose rate IMAT. A concave planning target volume (PTV) with a central cylindrical organ at risk (OAR) was used in this study. The initial IMAT arcs were approximated by multiple static beams at 5 deg. angular increments where multi-leaf collimator (MLC) leaf positions were determined from the beam's eye view to irradiate the PTV but avoid the OAR. For the optimization strategy, two arcs with arc ranges of 280 deg. and 150 deg. were employed and plans were created using LPO alone, variable dose rate optimization (VDRO) alone, simultaneous LPO and VDRO and sequential combinations of these strategies. To assess the MLC initialization effect, three single 360 deg. arc plans with different initial MLC configurations were generated using the simultaneous LPO and VDRO. The effect of changing optimization degrees of freedom was investigated by employing 3 deg., 5 deg. and 10 deg. angular sampling intervals for the two 280 deg., two 150 deg. and single arc plans using LPO and VDRO. The objective function value, a conformity index, a dose homogeneity index, mean dose to OAR and normal tissues were computed and used to evaluate the treatment plans. This study shows that the best optimization strategy for a concave target is to use simultaneous MLC LPO and VDRO. We found that the optimization result is sensitive to the choice of initial MLC aperture shapes suggesting that an LPO-based IMAT plan may not be able to overcome local minima for this geometry. In conclusion, simultaneous MLC leaf position and VDRO are needed with the most appropriate initial conditions (MLC positions, arc ranges and number of arcs) for IMAT.

  5. Radiographic detection of initial carious lesions on the proximal surfaces of teeth. Part I. The influence of exposure conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arnold, L.V.

    1987-01-01

    The relationship between a number of technical exposure conditions and the diagnostic value of bitewing radiographs in the interpretation of initial proximal carious lesions was evaluated. The most important exposure factors for radiographs are tube voltage, filtration, and exposure time. Tube voltage and filtration were found to have an insignificant influence on the diagnostic quality. Exposure time proved to be the most critical factor in influencing diagnostic quality. The greatest difference in diagnostic quality, however, was caused by differences between observers

  6. Hydrides blister formation and induced embrittlement on zircaloy-4 cladding tubes in reactivity initiated conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hellouin-De-Menibus, A.

    2012-01-01

    Our aim is to study the cladding fracture with mechanical tests more representative of RIA conditions, taking into account the hydrides blisters, representative strain rates and stress states. To obtain hydride blisters, we developed a thermodiffusion setup that reproduces blister growth in reactor conditions. By metallography, nano-hardness, XRD and ERDA, we showed that they are constituted by 80% to 100% of δ hydrides in a Zircaloy-4 matrix, and that the zirconium beneath has some radially oriented hydrides. We modeled the blister growth kinetics taking into account the hysteresis of the hydrogen solubility limit and defined the thermal gradient threshold for blister growth. The modeling of the dilatometric behavior of hydrided zirconium indicates the important role of the material crystallographic texture, which could explain differences in the blister shape. Mechanical tests monitored with an infrared camera showed that significant local heating occurred at strain rates higher than 0.1/s. In parallel, the Expansion Due to Compression test was optimized to increase the bi-axiality level from uniaxial stress to plane strain (HB-EDC and VHB-EDC tests). This increase in loading bi-axiality lowers greatly the fracture strain at 25 C and 350 C only in homogeneous material without blister. Eventually, the ductility decrease of unirradiated Zircaloy-4 cladding tube in function of the blister depth was quantified. (author) [fr

  7. Prediction of thermal sensation in non-air-conditioned buildings in warm climates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fanger, Povl Ole; Toftum, Jørn

    2002-01-01

    The PMV model agrees well with high-quality field studies in buildings with HVAC systems, situated in cold, temperate and warm climates, studied during both summer and winter. In non-air-conditioned buildings in warm climates, occupants may sense the warmth as being less severe than the PMV...... predicts. The main reason is low expectations, but a metabolic rate that is estimated too high can also contribute to explaining the difference. An extension of the PMV model that includes an expectancy factor is introduced for use in non-air-conditioned buildings in warm climates. The extended PMV model...... agrees well with quality field studies in non-air-conditioned buildings of three continents....

  8. Effects of Heterogeneity and Uncertainties in Sources and Initial and Boundary Conditions on Spatiotemporal Variations of Groundwater Levels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Y. K.; Liang, X.

    2014-12-01

    Effects of aquifer heterogeneity and uncertainties in source/sink, and initial and boundary conditions in a groundwater flow model on the spatiotemporal variations of groundwater level, h(x,t), were investigated. Analytical solutions for the variance and covariance of h(x, t) in an unconfined aquifer described by a linearized Boussinesq equation with a white noise source/sink and a random transmissivity field were derived. It was found that in a typical aquifer the error in h(x,t) in early time is mainly caused by the random initial condition and the error reduces as time goes to reach a constant error in later time. The duration during which the effect of the random initial condition is significant may last a few hundred days in most aquifers. The constant error in groundwater in later time is due to the combined effects of the uncertain source/sink and flux boundary: the closer to the flux boundary, the larger the error. The error caused by the uncertain head boundary is limited in a narrow zone near the boundary but it remains more or less constant over time. The effect of the heterogeneity is to increase the variation of groundwater level and the maximum effect occurs close to the constant head boundary because of the linear mean hydraulic gradient. The correlation of groundwater level decreases with temporal interval and spatial distance. In addition, the heterogeneity enhances the correlation of groundwater level, especially at larger time intervals and small spatial distances.

  9. Divergent series and memory of the initial condition in the long-time solution of some anomalous diffusion problems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuste, S Bravo; Borrego, R; Abad, E

    2010-02-01

    We consider various anomalous d -dimensional diffusion problems in the presence of an absorbing boundary with radial symmetry. The motion of particles is described by a fractional diffusion equation. Their mean-square displacement is given by r(2) proportional, variant t(gamma)(0divergent series appear when the concentration or survival probabilities are evaluated via the method of separation of variables. While the solution for normal diffusion problems is, at most, divergent as t-->0 , the emergence of such series in the long-time domain is a specific feature of subdiffusion problems. We present a method to regularize such series, and, in some cases, validate the procedure by using alternative techniques (Laplace transform method and numerical simulations). In the normal diffusion case, we find that the signature of the initial condition on the approach to the steady state rapidly fades away and the solution approaches a single (the main) decay mode in the long-time regime. In remarkable contrast, long-time memory of the initial condition is present in the subdiffusive case as the spatial part Psi1(r) describing the long-time decay of the solution to the steady state is determined by a weighted superposition of all spatial modes characteristic of the normal diffusion problem, the weight being dependent on the initial condition. Interestingly, Psi1(r) turns out to be independent of the anomalous diffusion exponent gamma .

  10. Dynamics of leaf and spikelet primordia initiation in wheat as affected by Ppd-1a alleles under field conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ochagavía, Helga; Prieto, Paula; Savin, Roxana; Griffiths, Simon; Slafer, GustavoA

    2018-04-27

    Wheat adaptation is affected by Ppd genes, but the role of these alleles in the rates of leaf and spikelet initiation has not been properly analysed. Twelve near isogenic lines (NILs) combining Ppd-1a alleles from different donors introgressed in A, B, and/or D genomes were tested under field conditions during two growing seasons together with the wild type, Paragon. Leaf initiation rate was unaffected by Ppd-1a alleles so the final leaf number (FLN) was reduced in parallel with reductions in the duration of the vegetative phase. Spikelet primordia initiation was accelerated and consequently the effect on spikelets per spike was less than proportional to the effect on the duration of spikelet initiation. The magnitude of these effects on spikelet plastochron depended on the doses of Ppd-1 homoeoalleles and the specific insensitivity alleles carried. Double ridge was consistently later than floral initiation, but the difference between them was not affected by Ppd-1a alleles. These findings have potential for selecting the best combinations from the Ppd-1 homoeoallelic series for manipulating adaptation taking into consideration particular effects on spikelet number.

  11. Experimental characterization of initial conditions and spatio-temporal evolution of a small Atwood number Rayleigh-Taylor mixing layer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mueschke, N J; Andrews, M J; Schilling, O

    2005-09-26

    The initial multi-mode interfacial velocity and density perturbations present at the onset of a small Atwood number, incompressible, miscible, Rayleigh-Taylor instability-driven mixing layer have been quantified using a combination of experimental techniques. The streamwise interfacial and spanwise interfacial perturbations were measured using high-resolution thermocouples and planar laser-induced fluorescence (PLIF), respectively. The initial multi-mode streamwise velocity perturbations at the two-fluid density interface were measured using particle-image velocimetry (PIV). It was found that the measured initial conditions describe an initially anisotropic state, in which the perturbations in the streamwise and spanwise directions are independent of one another. The evolution of various fluctuating velocity and density statistics, together with velocity and density variance spectra, were measured using PIV and high-resolution thermocouple data. The evolution of the velocity and density statistics is used to investigate the early-time evolution and the onset of strongly-nonlinear, transitional dynamics within the mixing layer. The early-time evolution of the density and vertical velocity variance spectra indicate that velocity fluctuations are the dominant mechanism driving the instability development. The implications of the present experimental measurements on the initialization of Reynolds-averaged turbulent transport and mixing models and of direct and large-eddy simulations of Rayleigh-Taylor instability-induced turbulence are discussed.

  12. Prediction of shock initiation thresholds and ignition probability of polymer-bonded explosives using mesoscale simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Seokpum; Wei, Yaochi; Horie, Yasuyuki; Zhou, Min

    2018-05-01

    The design of new materials requires establishment of macroscopic measures of material performance as functions of microstructure. Traditionally, this process has been an empirical endeavor. An approach to computationally predict the probabilistic ignition thresholds of polymer-bonded explosives (PBXs) using mesoscale simulations is developed. The simulations explicitly account for microstructure, constituent properties, and interfacial responses and capture processes responsible for the development of hotspots and damage. The specific mechanisms tracked include viscoelasticity, viscoplasticity, fracture, post-fracture contact, frictional heating, and heat conduction. The probabilistic analysis uses sets of statistically similar microstructure samples to directly mimic relevant experiments for quantification of statistical variations of material behavior due to inherent material heterogeneities. The particular thresholds and ignition probabilities predicted are expressed in James type and Walker-Wasley type relations, leading to the establishment of explicit analytical expressions for the ignition probability as function of loading. Specifically, the ignition thresholds corresponding to any given level of ignition probability and ignition probability maps are predicted for PBX 9404 for the loading regime of Up = 200-1200 m/s where Up is the particle speed. The predicted results are in good agreement with available experimental measurements. A parametric study also shows that binder properties can significantly affect the macroscopic ignition behavior of PBXs. The capability to computationally predict the macroscopic engineering material response relations out of material microstructures and basic constituent and interfacial properties lends itself to the design of new materials as well as the analysis of existing materials.

  13. Predicting the effect of climate change on wildfire behavior and initial attack success

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Riley, William; Fried, Jeremy S.; Gilless, J. Keith; Riley, William J.; Moody, Tadashi J.; Simon de Blas, Clara; Hayhoe, Katharine; Moritz, Max; Stephens, Scott; Torn, Margaret

    2007-12-01

    This study focused on how climate change-induced effects on weather will translate into changes in wildland fire severity and outcomes in California, particularly on the effectiveness of initial attack at limiting the number of fires that escape initial attack. The results indicate that subtle shifts in fire behavior of the sort that might be induced by the climate changes anticipated for the next century are of sufficient magnitude to generate an appreciable increase in the number of fires that escape initial attack. Such escapes are of considerable importance in wildland fire protection planning, given the high cost to society of a catastrophic escape like those experienced in recent decades in the Berkeley-Oakland, Santa Barbara, San Diego, or Los Angeles areas. However, at least for the three study areas considered, it would appear that relatively modest augmentations to existing firefighting resources might be sufficient to compensate for change-induced changes in wildland fire outcomes.

  14. Applying linear discriminant analysis to predict groundwater redox conditions conducive to denitrification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, S. R.; Close, M. E.; Abraham, P.

    2018-01-01

    Diffuse nitrate losses from agricultural land pollute groundwater resources worldwide, but can be attenuated under reducing subsurface conditions. In New Zealand, the ability to predict where groundwater denitrification occurs is important for understanding the linkage between land use and discharges of nitrate-bearing groundwater to streams. This study assesses the application of linear discriminant analysis (LDA) for predicting groundwater redox status for Southland, a major dairy farming region in New Zealand. Data cases were developed by assigning a redox status to samples derived from a regional groundwater quality database. Pre-existing regional-scale geospatial databases were used as training variables for the discriminant functions. The predictive accuracy of the discriminant functions was slightly improved by optimising the thresholds between sample depth classes. The models predict 23% of the region as being reducing at shallow depths (water table, and low-permeability clastic sediments. The coastal plains are an area of widespread groundwater discharge, and the soil and hydrology characteristics require the land to be artificially drained to render the land suitable for farming. For the improvement of water quality in coastal areas, it is therefore important that land and water management efforts focus on understanding hydrological bypassing that may occur via artificial drainage systems.

  15. Improvement of initial vacuum condition along 2008-2010 KSTAR campaign by vessel baking

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Kwang Pyo, E-mail: kpkim@nfri.er.ke [National Fusion Research Institute, Gwahagno 113, Daejeon 305-333 (Korea, Republic of); Hong, S.H.; Jung, N.Y.; Kim, S.T.; Kim, H.T.; Lee, K.S.; Kim, K.M.; Bang, E.N.; Chang, Y.B.; Kim, H.K.; Chu, Y.; Kim, Y.O.; Park, S.H.; Woo, I.S.; Hong, J.S.; Kim, S.W.; Park, K.R.; Na, H.K.; Yang, H.L.; Kim, Y.S. [National Fusion Research Institute, Gwahagno 113, Daejeon 305-333 (Korea, Republic of)

    2011-10-15

    Korea Superconducting Tokamak Advanced Research (KSTAR) is upgraded for its KSTAR 3rd campaign for new target mission to produce the D-shaped plasma with a target plasma current of 500 kA and/or pulse length of 5 s. New Plasma Facing Components (PFCs) are installed which leads to the increase of the surface area of the vessel by a factor of about 5. The vacuum conditioning such as the vessel baking has been performed in order to remove various kinds of impurities including H{sub 2}O, carbon and oxygen for the plasma. The total outgassing rate in the KSTAR 1st campaign was measured as 1.5 x 10{sup -4} mbar l s{sup -1} which is increased by a factor of 3 (6.49 x 10{sup -4} mbar l s{sup -1}) in the KSTAR 3rd campaign. Nevertheless, the outgassing rates per unit area have been decreased from 9.31 x 10{sup -5} mbar l m{sup -2} s{sup -1} to 1.22 x 10{sup -5} mbar l m{sup -2} s{sup -1} due to the upgrade of baking system and series of baking operation.

  16. Improvement of initial vacuum condition along 2008-2010 KSTAR campaign by vessel baking

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Kwang Pyo; Hong, S.H.; Jung, N.Y.; Kim, S.T.; Kim, H.T.; Lee, K.S.; Kim, K.M.; Bang, E.N.; Chang, Y.B.; Kim, H.K.; Chu, Y.; Kim, Y.O.; Park, S.H.; Woo, I.S.; Hong, J.S.; Kim, S.W.; Park, K.R.; Na, H.K.; Yang, H.L.; Kim, Y.S.

    2011-01-01

    Korea Superconducting Tokamak Advanced Research (KSTAR) is upgraded for its KSTAR 3rd campaign for new target mission to produce the D-shaped plasma with a target plasma current of 500 kA and/or pulse length of 5 s. New Plasma Facing Components (PFCs) are installed which leads to the increase of the surface area of the vessel by a factor of about 5. The vacuum conditioning such as the vessel baking has been performed in order to remove various kinds of impurities including H 2 O, carbon and oxygen for the plasma. The total outgassing rate in the KSTAR 1st campaign was measured as 1.5 x 10 -4 mbar l s -1 which is increased by a factor of 3 (6.49 x 10 -4 mbar l s -1 ) in the KSTAR 3rd campaign. Nevertheless, the outgassing rates per unit area have been decreased from 9.31 x 10 -5 mbar l m -2 s -1 to 1.22 x 10 -5 mbar l m -2 s -1 due to the upgrade of baking system and series of baking operation.

  17. Is ATAR Useful for Predicting the Success of Australian Students in Initial Teacher Education?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wright, Vince J.

    2015-01-01

    Quality teaching is the most significant systemic factor contributing to student achievement. Attracting, developing and retaining effective teachers are important goals for Australia as they are for all nations. Debate rages currently about criteria for selection of students into Initial Teacher Education (ITE). The Australian Tertiary Admission…

  18. Numerical analysis for fatigue life prediction on railroad RCF crack initiation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ma, Y.; Markine, V.L.

    2015-01-01

    In the present paper, a numerical procedure for surface crack initiation analysis based on the critical plane approach is proposed. The complex stress/strain state of wheel and rail (W/R) contact is analysed by means of submodelling approach together with the transient contact nodal loads obtained

  19. Online communication predicts Belgian adolescents’ initiation of romantic and sexual activity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vandenbosch, L.; Beyens, I.; Vangeel, L.; Eggermont, S.

    2016-01-01

    Online communication is associated with offline romantic and sexual activity among college students. Yet, it is unknown whether online communication is associated with the initiation of romantic and sexual activity among adolescents. This two-wave panel study investigated whether chatting, visiting

  20. Autolytic degradation of skipjack tuna during heating as affected by initial quality and processing conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stagg, Nicola J; Amato, Penny M; Giesbrecht, Francis; Lanier, Tyre C

    2012-02-01

    Several factors were studied as affecting protein degradation and texture of skipjack tuna muscle following ambient pressure thermal processing (precooking). These included degree of mushy tuna syndrome (MTS) evidenced in the raw meat, raw meat pH, abusive thawing/holding, and precooking temperature/time. Slurries and intact pieces from frozen skipjack tuna, either tempered for 2 h or thawed and held at 25 °C for 22 h (abusive treatment) were heated at temperatures ranging from 40 to 80 °C for up to 2 h, and also at 90 °C for 1 h, with or without prior adjustment of pH to 5 or 7 to favor cathepsin or calpain activity, respectively. Proteolysis of precooked samples was monitored by Lowry assay and SDS-PAGE; cooked texture of intact meat was measured using a Kramer shear press and by sensory profile analysis. Proteolysis maximally occurred in slurries of skipjack tuna muscle that had been abusively stored (22 h at 25 °C) and adjusted to pH 5 prior to heating at 55 °C. Intact pieces of tuna abusively thawed/held for 22 h with subsequent heating at 55 °C also evidenced the most proteolysis and were the least firm in texture. Raw fish that evidenced higher severity of MTS when raw displayed higher levels of proteolysis prior to cooking, which were further increased after cooking at 55 °C. The kinetic data presented here can be used to optimize processing conditions for skipjack tuna canning to minimize textural degradation and optimize quality. © 2012 Institute of Food Technologists®

  1. Multivariate prediction of spontaneous repetitive responses in ventricular myocardium exposed in vitro to simulated ischemic conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schiariti, M; Puddu, P E; Rouet, R

    1994-06-01

    Guinea-pig ventricular myocardium was partly exposed to normal Tyrode's superfusion and partly to altered conditions (using modified Tyrode's solution) set to simulate acute myocardial ischemia (PO2 80 +/- 10 mmHg; no glucose; pH 7.00 +/- 0.05; K+ 12 mM). Using a double-chamber tissue bath and standard microelectrode technique, the occurrence of spontaneous repetitive responses was investigated during simulated ischemia (occlusion) and after reperfusing the previously ischemic superfused tissue with normal Tyrode's solution (reperfusion). In 62 experiments (42 animals) the effects of: (1) duration of simulated ischemia (1321 +/- 435 s), (2) stimulation rate (1002 +/- 549 ms) and (3) number of successive simulated ischemic periods (occlusions) (1.58 +/- 0.92) on: (1) resting membrane potential, (2) action potential amplitude, (3) duration of 50 and 90% action potentials and (4) maximal upstroke velocity of action potential were studied. All variables were considered as gradients (delta) between normal and ischemic tissue. Both during occlusion and upon reperfusion, spontaneous repetitive responses were coded as single, couplets, salvos (three to nine and > 10) or total spontaneous repetitive responses (coded present when at least one of the above-mentioned types was seen). The incidence of total spontaneous repetitive responses was 31% (19/62) on occlusion and 85% (53/62) upon reperfusion. Cox's models (forced and stepwise) were used to predict multivariately the occurrence of arrhythmic events considered as both total spontaneous repetitive responses and as separate entities. These models were applicable since continuous monitoring of the experiments enabled exact timing of spontaneous repetitive response onset during both occlusion and reperfusion. In predicting reperfusion spontaneous repetitive responses, total spontaneous repetitive responses and blocks observed during the occlusion period were also considered. Total occlusion spontaneous repetitive responses

  2. Evaluating the influence of initial magnetization conditions on extracted exchange parameters in NMR relaxation experiments: applications to CPMG and CEST

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yuwen, Tairan; Sekhar, Ashok; Kay, Lewis E., E-mail: kay@pound.med.utoronto.ca [The University of Toronto, Departments of Molecular Genetics, Biochemistry and Chemistry (Canada)

    2016-08-15

    Transient excursions of native protein states to functionally relevant higher energy conformations often occur on the μs–ms timescale. NMR spectroscopy has emerged as an important tool to probe such processes using techniques such as Carr–Purcell–Meiboom–Gill (CPMG) relaxation dispersion and Chemical Exchange Saturation Transfer (CEST). The extraction of kinetic and structural parameters from these measurements is predicated upon mathematical modeling of the resulting relaxation profiles, which in turn relies on knowledge of the initial magnetization conditions at the start of the CPMG/CEST relaxation elements in these experiments. Most fitting programs simply assume initial magnetization conditions that are given by equilibrium populations, which may be incorrect in certain implementations of experiments. In this study we have quantified the systematic errors in extracted parameters that are generated from analyses of CPMG and CEST experiments using incorrect initial boundary conditions. We find that the errors in exchange rates (k{sub ex}) and populations (p{sub E}) are typically small (<10 %) and thus can be safely ignored in most cases. However, errors become larger and cannot be fully neglected (20–40 %) as k{sub ex} falls near the lower limit of each method or when short CPMG/CEST relaxation elements are used in these experiments. The source of the errors can be rationalized and their magnitude given by a simple functional form. Despite the fact that errors tend to be small, it is recommended that the correct boundary conditions be implemented in fitting programs so as to obtain as robust estimates of exchange parameters as possible.

  3. Prediction of fracture initiation in square cup drawing of DP980 using an anisotropic ductile fracture criterion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, N.; Huh, H.; Yoon, J. W.

    2017-09-01

    This paper deals with the prediction of fracture initiation in square cup drawing of DP980 steel sheet with the thickness of 1.2 mm. In an attempt to consider the influence of material anisotropy on the fracture initiation, an uncoupled anisotropic ductile fracture criterion is developed based on the Lou—Huh ductile fracture criterion. Tensile tests are carried out at different loading directions of 0°, 45°, and 90° to the rolling direction of the sheet using various specimen geometries including pure shear, dog-bone, and flat grooved specimens so as to calibrate the parameters of the proposed fracture criterion. Equivalent plastic strain distribution on the specimen surface is computed using Digital Image Correlation (DIC) method until surface crack initiates. The proposed fracture criterion is implemented into the commercial finite element code ABAQUS/Explicit by developing the Vectorized User-defined MATerial (VUMAT) subroutine which features the non-associated flow rule. Simulation results of the square cup drawing test clearly show that the proposed fracture criterion is capable of predicting the fracture initiation with sufficient accuracy considering the material anisotropy.

  4. Statistical prediction of AVB wear growth and initiation in model F steam generator tubes using Monte Carlo method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Jae Bong; Park, Jae Hak; Kim, Hong Deok; Chung, Han Sub; Kim, Tae Ryong

    2005-01-01

    The growth of AVB wear in Model F steam generator tubes is predicted using the Monte Carlo Method and statistical approaches. The statistical parameters that represent the characteristics of wear growth and wear initiation are derived from In-Service Inspection (ISI) Non-Destructive Evaluation (NDE) data. Based on the statistical approaches, wear growth model are proposed and applied to predict wear distribution at the End Of Cycle (EOC). Probabilistic distributions of the number of wear flaws and maximum wear depth at EOC are obtained from the analysis. Comparing the predicted EOC wear flaw data with the known EOC data the usefulness of the proposed method is examined and satisfactory results are obtained

  5. Statistical prediction of AVB wear growth and initiation in model F steam generator tubes using Monte Carlo method

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Jae Bong; Park, Jae Hak [Chungbuk National Univ., Cheongju (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Hong Deok; Chung, Han Sub; Kim, Tae Ryong [Korea Electtric Power Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2005-07-01

    The growth of AVB wear in Model F steam generator tubes is predicted using the Monte Carlo Method and statistical approaches. The statistical parameters that represent the characteristics of wear growth and wear initiation are derived from In-Service Inspection (ISI) Non-Destructive Evaluation (NDE) data. Based on the statistical approaches, wear growth model are proposed and applied to predict wear distribution at the End Of Cycle (EOC). Probabilistic distributions of the number of wear flaws and maximum wear depth at EOC are obtained from the analysis. Comparing the predicted EOC wear flaw data with the known EOC data the usefulness of the proposed method is examined and satisfactory results are obtained.

  6. XBeach-G: a tool for predicting gravel barrier response to extreme storm conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masselink, Gerd; Poate, Tim; McCall, Robert; Roelvink, Dano; Russell, Paul; Davidson, Mark

    2014-05-01

    Gravel beaches protect low-lying back-barrier regions from flooding during storm events and their importance to society is widely acknowledged. Unfortunately, breaching and extensive storm damage has occurred at many gravel sites and this is likely to increase as a result of sea-level rise and enhanced storminess due to climate change. Limited scientific guidance is currently available to provide beach managers with operational management tools to predict the response of gravel beaches to storms. The New Understanding and Prediction of Storm Impacts on Gravel beaches (NUPSIG) project aims to improve our understanding of storm impacts on gravel coastal environments and to develop a predictive capability by modelling these impacts. The NUPSIG project uses a 5-pronged approach to address its aim: (1) analyse hydrodynamic data collected during a proto-type laboratory experiment on a gravel beach; (2) collect hydrodynamic field data on a gravel beach under a range of conditions, including storm waves with wave heights up to 3 m; (3) measure swash dynamics and beach response on 10 gravel beaches during extreme wave conditions with wave heights in excess of 3 m; (4) use the data collected under 1-3 to develop and validate a numerical model to model hydrodynamics and morphological response of gravel beaches under storm conditions; and (5) develop a tool for end-users, based on the model formulated under (4), for predicting storm response of gravel beaches and barriers. The aim of this presentation is to present the key results of the NUPSIG project and introduce the end-user tool for predicting storm response on gravel beaches. The model is based on the numerical model XBeach, and different forcing scenarios (wave and tides), barrier configurations (dimensions) and sediment characteristics are easily uploaded for model simulations using a Graphics User Interface (GUI). The model can be used to determine the vulnerability of gravel barriers to storm events, but can also be

  7. Downscaling Ocean Conditions: Initial Results using a Quasigeostrophic and Realistic Ocean Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katavouta, Anna; Thompson, Keith

    2014-05-01

    Previous theoretical work (Henshaw et al, 2003) has shown that the small-scale modes of variability of solutions of the unforced, incompressible Navier-Stokes equation, and Burgers' equation, can be reconstructed with surprisingly high accuracy from the time history of a few of the large-scale modes. Motivated by this theoretical work we first describe a straightforward method for assimilating information on the large scales in order to recover the small scale oceanic variability. The method is based on nudging in specific wavebands and frequencies and is similar to the so-called spectral nudging method that has been used successfully for atmospheric downscaling with limited area models (e.g. von Storch et al., 2000). The validity of the method is tested using a quasigestrophic model configured to simulate a double ocean gyre separated by an unstable mid-ocean jet. It is shown that important features of the ocean circulation including the position of the meandering mid-ocean jet and associated pinch-off eddies can indeed be recovered from the time history of a small number of large-scales modes. The benefit of assimilating additional time series of observations from a limited number of locations, that alone are too sparse to significantly improve the recovery of the small scales using traditional assimilation techniques, is also demonstrated using several twin experiments. The final part of the study outlines the application of the approach using a realistic high resolution (1/36 degree) model, based on the NEMO (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean) modeling framework, configured for the Scotian Shelf of the east coast of Canada. The large scale conditions used in this application are obtained from the HYCOM (HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model) + NCODA (Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation) global 1/12 degree analysis product. Henshaw, W., Kreiss, H.-O., Ystrom, J., 2003. Numerical experiments on the interaction between the larger- and the small-scale motion of

  8. Predictive validity of a brief antiretroviral adherence index: Retrospective cohort analysis under conditions of repetitive administration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Colwell Bradford

    2008-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Newer antiretroviral (ARV agents have improved pharmacokinetics, potency, and tolerability and have enabled the design of regimens with improved virologic outcomes. Successful antiretroviral therapy is dependent on patient adherence. In previous research, we validated a subset of items from the ACTG adherence battery as prognostic of virologic suppression at 6 months and correlated with adherence estimates from the Medication Event Monitoring System (MEMS. The objective of the current study was to validate the longitudinal use of the Owen Clinic adherence index in analyses of time to initial virologic suppression and maintenance of suppression. Results 278 patients (naïve n = 168, experienced n = 110 met inclusion criteria. Median [range] time on the first regimen during the study period was 286 (30 – 1221 days. 217 patients (78% achieved an undetectable plasma viral load (pVL at median 63 days. 8.3% (18/217 of patients experienced viral rebound (pVL > 400 after initial suppression. Adherence scores varied from 0 – 25 (mean 1.06, median 0. The lowest detectable adherence score cut point using this instrument was ≥ 5 for both initial suppression and maintenance of suppression. In the final Cox model of time to first undetectable pVL, controlling for prior treatment experience and baseline viral load, the adjusted hazard ratio for time updated adherence score was 0.36score ≥ 5 (95% CI: 0.19–0.69 [reference: score ≥ 5 (0.05–0.66 [reference: Conclusion A brief, longitudinally administered self report adherence instrument predicted both initial virologic suppression and maintenance of suppression in patients using contemporary ARV regimens. The survey can be used for identification of sub-optimal adherence with subsequent appropriate intervention.

  9. Numerical prediction of a draft tube flow taking into account uncertain inlet conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brugiere, O; Balarac, G; Corre, C; Metais, O; Flores, E; Pleroy

    2012-01-01

    The swirling turbulent flow in a hydroturbine draft tube is computed with a non-intrusive uncertainty quantification (UQ) method coupled to Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) modelling in order to take into account in the numerical prediction the physical uncertainties existing on the inlet flow conditions. The proposed approach yields not only mean velocity fields to be compared with measured profiles, as is customary in Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) practice, but also variance of these quantities from which error bars can be deduced on the computed profiles, thus making more significant the comparison between experiment and computation.

  10. Numerical prediction of a draft tube flow taking into account uncertain inlet conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brugiere, O.; Balarac, G.; Corre, C.; Metais, O.; Flores, E.; Pleroy

    2012-11-01

    The swirling turbulent flow in a hydroturbine draft tube is computed with a non-intrusive uncertainty quantification (UQ) method coupled to Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) modelling in order to take into account in the numerical prediction the physical uncertainties existing on the inlet flow conditions. The proposed approach yields not only mean velocity fields to be compared with measured profiles, as is customary in Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) practice, but also variance of these quantities from which error bars can be deduced on the computed profiles, thus making more significant the comparison between experiment and computation.

  11. Predicting memory performance under conditions of proactive interference: immediate and delayed judgments of learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wahlheim, Christopher N

    2011-07-01

    Four experiments examined the monitoring accuracy of immediate and delayed judgments of learning (JOLs) under conditions of proactive interference (PI). PI was produced using paired-associate learning tasks that conformed to variations of classic A-B, A-D paradigms. Results revealed that the relative monitoring accuracy of interference items was better for delayed than for immediate JOLs. However, delayed JOLs were overconfident for interference items, but not for items devoid of interference. Intrusions retrieved prior to delayed JOLs produced inflated predictions of performance. These results show that delayed JOLs enhance monitoring accuracy in PI situations, except when intrusions are mistaken for target responses.

  12. Assessing Long-Term Wind Conditions by Combining Different Measure-Correlate-Predict Algorithms: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, J.; Chowdhury, S.; Messac, A.; Hodge, B. M.

    2013-08-01

    This paper significantly advances the hybrid measure-correlate-predict (MCP) methodology, enabling it to account for variations of both wind speed and direction. The advanced hybrid MCP method uses the recorded data of multiple reference stations to estimate the long-term wind condition at a target wind plant site. The results show that the accuracy of the hybrid MCP method is highly sensitive to the combination of the individual MCP algorithms and reference stations. It was also found that the best combination of MCP algorithms varies based on the length of the correlation period.

  13. A comparative study of various inflow boundary conditions and turbulence models for wind turbine wake predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Lin-Lin; Zhao, Ning; Song, Yi-Lei; Zhu, Chun-Ling

    2018-05-01

    This work is devoted to perform systematic sensitivity analysis of different turbulence models and various inflow boundary conditions in predicting the wake flow behind a horizontal axis wind turbine represented by an actuator disc (AD). The tested turbulence models are the standard k-𝜀 model and the Reynolds Stress Model (RSM). A single wind turbine immersed in both uniform flows and in modeled atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) flows is studied. Simulation results are validated against the field experimental data in terms of wake velocity and turbulence intensity.

  14. Numerical tools to predict the environmental loads for offshore structures under extreme weather conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Yanling

    2018-05-01

    In this paper, the extreme waves were generated using the open source computational fluid dynamic (CFD) tools — OpenFOAM and Waves2FOAM — using linear and nonlinear NewWave input. They were used to conduct the numerical simulation of the wave impact process. Numerical tools based on first-order (with and without stretching) and second-order NewWave are investigated. The simulation to predict force loading for the offshore platform under the extreme weather condition is implemented and compared.

  15. An ensemble prediction approach to weekly Dengue cases forecasting based on climatic and terrain conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sougata Deb

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Dengue fever has been one of the most concerning endemic diseases of recent times. Every year, 50-100 million people get infected by the dengue virus across the world. Historically, it has been most prevalent in Southeast Asia and the Pacific Islands. In recent years, frequent dengue epidemics have started occurring in Latin America as well. This study focused on assessing the impact of different short and long-term lagged climatic predictors on dengue cases. Additionally, it assessed the impact of building an ensemble model using multiple time series and regression models, in improving prediction accuracy. Materials and Methods: Experimental data were based on two Latin American cities, viz. San Juan (Puerto Rico and Iquitos (Peru. Due to weather and geographic differences, San Juan recorded higher dengue incidences than Iquitos. Using lagged cross-correlations, this study confirmed the impact of temperature and vegetation on the number of dengue cases for both cities, though in varied degrees and time lags. An ensemble of multiple predictive models using an elaborate set of derived predictors was built and validated. Results: The proposed ensemble prediction achieved a mean absolute error of 21.55, 4.26 points lower than the 25.81 obtained by a standard negative binomial model. Changes in climatic conditions and urbanization were found to be strong predictors as established empirically in other researches. Some of the predictors were new and informative, which have not been explored in any other relevant studies yet. Discussion and Conclusions: Two original contributions were made in this research. Firstly, a focused and extensive feature engineering aligned with the mosquito lifecycle. Secondly, a novel covariate pattern-matching based prediction approach using past time series trend of the predictor variables. Increased accuracy of the proposed model over the benchmark model proved the appropriateness of the analytical approach

  16. Microstructure-based approach for predicting crack initiation and early growth in metals.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cox, James V.; Emery, John M.; Brewer, Luke N.; Reedy, Earl David, Jr.; Puskar, Joseph David; Bartel, Timothy James; Dingreville, Remi P. M.; Foulk, James W., III; Battaile, Corbett Chandler; Boyce, Brad Lee

    2009-09-01

    Fatigue cracking in metals has been and is an area of great importance to the science and technology of structural materials for quite some time. The earliest stages of fatigue crack nucleation and growth are dominated by the microstructure and yet few models are able to predict the fatigue behavior during these stages because of a lack of microstructural physics in the models. This program has developed several new simulation tools to increase the microstructural physics available for fatigue prediction. In addition, this program has extended and developed microscale experimental methods to allow the validation of new microstructural models for deformation in metals. We have applied these developments to fatigue experiments in metals where the microstructure has been intentionally varied.

  17. A damage cumulation method for crack initiation prediction under non proportional loading and overloading

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taheri, S.

    1992-04-01

    For a sequence of constant amplitude cyclic loading containing overloads, we propose a method for damage cumulation in non proportional loading. This method uses as data cyclic stabilized states at non proportional loading and initiation or fatigue curve in uniaxial case. For that, we take into account the dependence of Cyclic Strain Stress Curves (C.S.S.C.) and mean cell size on prehardening and we define a stabilized uniaxial state cyclically equivalent to a non proportional stabilized state through a family of C.S.S.C. Although simple assumptions like linear damage function and linear cumulation is used we obtain a sequence effect for difficult cross slip materials as 316 stainless steel, but the Miner rule for easy cross-slip materials. We show then differences between a load-controlled test and a strain controlled test: for a 316 stainless steel in a load controlled test, the non proportional loading at each cycle is less damaging than the uniaxial one for the same equivalent stress, while the result is opposite in a strain controlled test. We show also that an overloading retards initiation in a load controlled test while it accelerates initiation in a strain controlled test. (author). 26 refs., 8 figs

  18. WINROP algorithm for prediction of sight threatening retinopathy of prematurity: Initial experience in Indian preterm infants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gaurav Sanghi

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: To determine the efficacy of the online monitoring tool, WINROP (https://winrop.com/ in detecting sight-threatening type 1 retinopathy of prematurity (ROP in Indian preterm infants. Methods: Birth weight, gestational age, and weekly weight measurements of seventy preterm infants (<32 weeks gestation born between June 2014 and August 2016 were entered into WINROP algorithm. Based on weekly weight gain, WINROP algorithm signaled an alarm to indicate that the infant is at risk for sight-threatening Type 1 ROP. ROP screening was done according to standard guidelines. The negative and positive predictive values were calculated using the sensitivity, specificity, and prevalence of ROP type 1 for the study group. 95% confidence interval (CI was calculated. Results: Of the seventy infants enrolled in the study, 31 (44.28% developed Type 1 ROP. WINROP alarm was signaled in 74.28% (52/70 of all infants and 90.32% (28/31 of infants treated for Type 1 ROP. The specificity was 38.46% (15/39. The positive predictive value was 53.84% (95% CI: 39.59–67.53 and negative predictive value was 83.3% (95% CI: 57.73–95.59. Conclusion: This is the first study from India using a weight gain-based algorithm for prediction of ROP. Overall sensitivity of WINROP algorithm in detecting Type 1 ROP was 90.32%. The overall specificity was 38.46%. Population-specific tweaking of algorithm may improve the result and practical utility for ophthalmologists and neonatologists.

  19. Predicting Near-Term Water Quality from Satellite Observations of Watershed Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weiss, W. J.; Wang, L.; Hoffman, K.; West, D.; Mehta, A. V.; Lee, C.

    2017-12-01

    Despite the strong influence of watershed conditions on source water quality, most water utilities and water resource agencies do not currently have the capability to monitor watershed sources of contamination with great temporal or spatial detail. Typically, knowledge of source water quality is limited to periodic grab sampling; automated monitoring of a limited number of parameters at a few select locations; and/or monitoring relevant constituents at a treatment plant intake. While important, such observations are not sufficient to inform proactive watershed or source water management at a monthly or seasonal scale. Satellite remote sensing data on the other hand can provide a snapshot of an entire watershed at regular, sub-monthly intervals, helping analysts characterize watershed conditions and identify trends that could signal changes in source water quality. Accordingly, the authors are investigating correlations between satellite remote sensing observations of watersheds and source water quality, at a variety of spatial and temporal scales and lags. While correlations between remote sensing observations and direct in situ measurements of water quality have been well described in the literature, there are few studies that link remote sensing observations across a watershed with near-term predictions of water quality. In this presentation, the authors will describe results of statistical analyses and discuss how these results are being used to inform development of a desktop decision support tool to support predictive application of remote sensing data. Predictor variables under evaluation include parameters that describe vegetative conditions; parameters that describe climate/weather conditions; and non-remote sensing, in situ measurements. Water quality parameters under investigation include nitrogen, phosphorus, organic carbon, chlorophyll-a, and turbidity.

  20. Ecological Factors Predict Transition Readiness/Self-Management in Youth With Chronic Conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Javalkar, Karina; Johnson, Meredith; Kshirsagar, Abhijit V; Ocegueda, Sofia; Detwiler, Randal K; Ferris, Maria

    2016-01-01

    Health care transition readiness or self-management among adolescents and young adults (AYA) with chronic conditions may be influenced by factors related to their surrounding environment. Study participants were AYA diagnosed with a chronic condition and evaluated at pediatric- and adult-focused subspecialty clinics at the University of North Carolina Hospital Systems. All participants were administered a provider-administered self-management/transition-readiness tool, the UNC TRxANSITION Scale. Geographic area and associated characteristics (ecological factors) were identified for each participant's ZIP code using the published U.S. Census data. The Level 1 model of the hierarchical linear regression used individual-level predictors of transition readiness/self-management. The Level 2 model incorporated the ecological factors. We enrolled 511 AYA with different chronic conditions aged 12-31 years with the following characteristics: mean age of 20± 4 years, 45% white, 42% black, and 54% female. Participants represented 214 ZIP codes in or around North Carolina, USA. The Level 1 model showed that age, gender, and race were significant predictors of transition readiness/self-management. On adding the ecological factors in the Level 2 model, race was no longer significant. Participants from a geographic area with a greater percentage of females (β = .114, p = .005) and a higher median income (β = .126, p = .002) had greater overall transition readiness. Ecological factors also predicted subdomains of transition readiness/self-management. In this cohort of adolescents and young adults with different chronic conditions, ecological disparities such as sex composition, median income, and language predict self-management/transition readiness. It is important to take ecological risk factors into consideration when preparing patients for health self-management or transition. Copyright © 2016 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All

  1. Artificial boundary conditions for certain evolution PDEs with cubic nonlinearity for non-compactly supported initial data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaibhav, V.

    2011-04-01

    The paper addresses the problem of constructing non-reflecting boundary conditions for two types of one dimensional evolution equations, namely, the cubic nonlinear Schrödinger (NLS) equation, ∂tu+Lu-iχ|u|2u=0 with L≡-i∂x2, and the equation obtained by letting L≡∂x3. The usual restriction of compact support of the initial data is relaxed by allowing it to have a constant amplitude along with a linear phase variation outside a compact domain. We adapt the pseudo-differential approach developed by Antoine et al. (2006) [5] for the NLS equation to the second type of evolution equation, and further, extend the scheme to the aforementioned class of initial data for both of the equations. In addition, we discuss efficient numerical implementation of our scheme and produce the results of several numerical experiments demonstrating its effectiveness.

  2. Can phenological models predict tree phenology accurately under climate change conditions?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chuine, Isabelle; Bonhomme, Marc; Legave, Jean Michel; García de Cortázar-Atauri, Inaki; Charrier, Guillaume; Lacointe, André; Améglio, Thierry

    2014-05-01

    The onset of the growing season of trees has been globally earlier by 2.3 days/decade during the last 50 years because of global warming and this trend is predicted to continue according to climate forecast. The effect of temperature on plant phenology is however not linear because temperature has a dual effect on bud development. On one hand, low temperatures are necessary to break bud dormancy, and on the other hand higher temperatures are necessary to promote bud cells growth afterwards. Increasing phenological changes in temperate woody species have strong impacts on forest trees distribution and productivity, as well as crops cultivation areas. Accurate predictions of trees phenology are therefore a prerequisite to understand and foresee the impacts of climate change on forests and agrosystems. Different process-based models have been developed in the last two decades to predict the date of budburst or flowering of woody species. They are two main families: (1) one-phase models which consider only the ecodormancy phase and make the assumption that endodormancy is always broken before adequate climatic conditions for cell growth occur; and (2) two-phase models which consider both the endodormancy and ecodormancy phases and predict a date of dormancy break which varies from year to year. So far, one-phase models have been able to predict accurately tree bud break and flowering under historical climate. However, because they do not consider what happens prior to ecodormancy, and especially the possible negative effect of winter temperature warming on dormancy break, it seems unlikely that they can provide accurate predictions in future climate conditions. It is indeed well known that a lack of low temperature results in abnormal pattern of bud break and development in temperate fruit trees. An accurate modelling of the dormancy break date has thus become a major issue in phenology modelling. Two-phases phenological models predict that global warming should delay

  3. Predicting long-term risk for relationship dissolution using nonparametric conditional survival trees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kliem, Sören; Weusthoff, Sarah; Hahlweg, Kurt; Baucom, Katherine J W; Baucom, Brian R

    2015-12-01

    Identifying risk factors for divorce or separation is an important step in the prevention of negative individual outcomes and societal costs associated with relationship dissolution. Programs that aim to prevent relationship distress and dissolution typically focus on changing processes that occur during couple conflict, although the predictive ability of conflict-specific variables has not been examined in the context of other factors related to relationship dissolution. The authors examine whether emotional responding and communication during couple conflict predict relationship dissolution after controlling for overall relationship quality and individual well-being. Using nonparametric conditional survival trees, the study at hand simultaneously examined the predictive abilities of physiological (systolic and diastolic blood pressure, heart rate, cortisol) and behavioral (fundamental frequency; f0) indices of emotional responding, as well as observationally coded positive and negative communication behavior, on long-term relationship stability after controlling for relationship satisfaction and symptoms of depression. One hundred thirty-six spouses were assessed after participating in a randomized clinical trial of a relationship distress prevention program as well as 11 years thereafter; 32.5% of the couples' relationships had dissolved by follow up. For men, the only significant predictor of relationship dissolution was cortisol change score (p = .012). For women, only f0 range was a significant predictor of relationship dissolution (p = .034). These findings highlight the importance of emotional responding during couple conflict for long-term relationship stability. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  4. Influence of thermal buoyancy on vertical tube bundle thermal density head predictions under transient conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lin, H.C.; Kasza, K.E.

    1984-01-01

    The thermal-hydraulic behavior of an LMFBR system under various types of plant transients is usually studied using one-dimensional (1-D) flow and energy transport models of the system components. Many of the transient events involve the change from a high to a low flow with an accompanying change in temperature of the fluid passing through the components which can be conductive to significant thermal bouyancy forces. Thermal bouyancy can exert its influence on system dynamic energy transport predictions through alterations of flow and thermal distributions which in turn can influence decay heat removal, system-response time constants, heat transport between primary and secondary systems, and thermal energy rejection at the reactor heat sink, i.e., the steam generator. In this paper the results from a comparison of a 1-D model prediction and experimental data for vertical tube bundle overall thermal density head and outlet temperature under transient conditions causing varying degrees of thermal bouyancy are presented. These comparisons are being used to generate insight into how, when, and to what degree thermal buoyancy can cause departures from 1-D model predictions

  5. Recent developments in predictive uncertainty assessment based on the model conditional processor approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Coccia

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available The work aims at discussing the role of predictive uncertainty in flood forecasting and flood emergency management, its relevance to improve the decision making process and the techniques to be used for its assessment.

    Real time flood forecasting requires taking into account predictive uncertainty for a number of reasons. Deterministic hydrological/hydraulic forecasts give useful information about real future events, but their predictions, as usually done in practice, cannot be taken and used as real future occurrences but rather used as pseudo-measurements of future occurrences in order to reduce the uncertainty of decision makers. Predictive Uncertainty (PU is in fact defined as the probability of occurrence of a future value of a predictand (such as water level, discharge or water volume conditional upon prior observations and knowledge as well as on all the information we can obtain on that specific future value from model forecasts. When dealing with commensurable quantities, as in the case of floods, PU must be quantified in terms of a probability distribution function which will be used by the emergency managers in their decision process in order to improve the quality and reliability of their decisions.

    After introducing the concept of PU, the presently available processors are introduced and discussed in terms of their benefits and limitations. In this work the Model Conditional Processor (MCP has been extended to the possibility of using two joint Truncated Normal Distributions (TNDs, in order to improve adaptation to low and high flows.

    The paper concludes by showing the results of the application of the MCP on two case studies, the Po river in Italy and the Baron Fork river, OK, USA. In the Po river case the data provided by the Civil Protection of the Emilia Romagna region have been used to implement an operational example, where the predicted variable is the observed water level. In the Baron Fork River

  6. Prediction and visualization of redox conditions in the groundwater of Central Valley, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosecrans, Celia Z.; Nolan, Bernard T.; Gronberg, JoAnn M.

    2017-03-01

    Regional-scale, three-dimensional continuous probability models, were constructed for aspects of redox conditions in the groundwater system of the Central Valley, California. These models yield grids depicting the probability that groundwater in a particular location will have dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations less than selected threshold values representing anoxic groundwater conditions, or will have dissolved manganese (Mn) concentrations greater than selected threshold values representing secondary drinking water-quality contaminant levels (SMCL) and health-based screening levels (HBSL). The probability models were constrained by the alluvial boundary of the Central Valley to a depth of approximately 300 m. Probability distribution grids can be extracted from the 3-D models at any desired depth, and are of interest to water-resource managers, water-quality researchers, and groundwater modelers concerned with the occurrence of natural and anthropogenic contaminants related to anoxic conditions. Models were constructed using a Boosted Regression Trees (BRT) machine learning technique that produces many trees as part of an additive model and has the ability to handle many variables, automatically incorporate interactions, and is resistant to collinearity. Machine learning methods for statistical prediction are becoming increasing popular in that they do not require assumptions associated with traditional hypothesis testing. Models were constructed using measured dissolved oxygen and manganese concentrations sampled from 2767 wells within the alluvial boundary of the Central Valley, and over 60 explanatory variables representing regional-scale soil properties, soil chemistry, land use, aquifer textures, and aquifer hydrologic properties. Models were trained on a USGS dataset of 932 wells, and evaluated on an independent hold-out dataset of 1835 wells from the California Division of Drinking Water. We used cross-validation to assess the predictive performance of

  7. Prediction and visualization of redox conditions in the groundwater of Central Valley, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosecrans, Celia Z.; Nolan, Bernard T.; Gronberg, JoAnn M.

    2017-01-01

    Regional-scale, three-dimensional continuous probability models, were constructed for aspects of redox conditions in the groundwater system of the Central Valley, California. These models yield grids depicting the probability that groundwater in a particular location will have dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations less than selected threshold values representing anoxic groundwater conditions, or will have dissolved manganese (Mn) concentrations greater than selected threshold values representing secondary drinking water-quality contaminant levels (SMCL) and health-based screening levels (HBSL). The probability models were constrained by the alluvial boundary of the Central Valley to a depth of approximately 300 m. Probability distribution grids can be extracted from the 3-D models at any desired depth, and are of interest to water-resource managers, water-quality researchers, and groundwater modelers concerned with the occurrence of natural and anthropogenic contaminants related to anoxic conditions.Models were constructed using a Boosted Regression Trees (BRT) machine learning technique that produces many trees as part of an additive model and has the ability to handle many variables, automatically incorporate interactions, and is resistant to collinearity. Machine learning methods for statistical prediction are becoming increasing popular in that they do not require assumptions associated with traditional hypothesis testing. Models were constructed using measured dissolved oxygen and manganese concentrations sampled from 2767 wells within the alluvial boundary of the Central Valley, and over 60 explanatory variables representing regional-scale soil properties, soil chemistry, land use, aquifer textures, and aquifer hydrologic properties. Models were trained on a USGS dataset of 932 wells, and evaluated on an independent hold-out dataset of 1835 wells from the California Division of Drinking Water. We used cross-validation to assess the predictive performance of

  8. Predicting 30-day Hospital Readmission with Publicly Available Administrative Database. A Conditional Logistic Regression Modeling Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, K; Lou, Z; Zhou, J; Ballester, N; Kong, N; Parikh, P

    2015-01-01

    This article is part of the Focus Theme of Methods of Information in Medicine on "Big Data and Analytics in Healthcare". Hospital readmissions raise healthcare costs and cause significant distress to providers and patients. It is, therefore, of great interest to healthcare organizations to predict what patients are at risk to be readmitted to their hospitals. However, current logistic regression based risk prediction models have limited prediction power when applied to hospital administrative data. Meanwhile, although decision trees and random forests have been applied, they tend to be too complex to understand among the hospital practitioners. Explore the use of conditional logistic regression to increase the prediction accuracy. We analyzed an HCUP statewide inpatient discharge record dataset, which includes patient demographics, clinical and care utilization data from California. We extracted records of heart failure Medicare beneficiaries who had inpatient experience during an 11-month period. We corrected the data imbalance issue with under-sampling. In our study, we first applied standard logistic regression and decision tree to obtain influential variables and derive practically meaning decision rules. We then stratified the original data set accordingly and applied logistic regression on each data stratum. We further explored the effect of interacting variables in the logistic regression modeling. We conducted cross validation to assess the overall prediction performance of conditional logistic regression (CLR) and compared it with standard classification models. The developed CLR models outperformed several standard classification models (e.g., straightforward logistic regression, stepwise logistic regression, random forest, support vector machine). For example, the best CLR model improved the classification accuracy by nearly 20% over the straightforward logistic regression model. Furthermore, the developed CLR models tend to achieve better sensitivity of

  9. T-Cell Subsets Predict Mortality in Malnourished Zambian Adults Initiating Antiretroviral Therapy.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Caroline C Chisenga

    Full Text Available To estimate the prognostic value of T-cell subsets in Zambian patients initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART, and to assess the impact of a nutritional intervention on T-cell subsets.This was a sub-study of a randomised clinical trial of a nutritional intervention for malnourished adults initiating ART. Participants in a randomised controlled trial (NUSTART trial were enrolled between April and December 2012. Participants received lipid-based nutritional supplement either with or without additional vitamins and minerals. Immunophenotyping was undertaken at baseline and, in survivors, after 12 weeks of ART to characterize T-cell subsets using the markers CD3, CD4, CD8, CD45RA, CCR7, CD28, CD57, CD31, α4β7, Ki67, CD25 and HLA-DR. Univariate and multivariate survival analysis was performed, and responses to treatment were analysed using the Wicoxon rank-sum test.Among 181 adults, 36 (20% died by 12 weeks after starting ART. In univariate analysis, patients who died had fewer proliferating, more naïve and fewer gut homing CD4+ T-cells compared to survivors; and more senescent and fewer proliferating CD8+ T-cells. In a multivariate Cox regression model high naïve CD4+, low proliferating CD4+, high senescent CD8+ and low proliferating CD8+ subsets were independently associated with increased risk of death. Recent CD4+ thymic emigrants increased less between recruitment and 12 weeks of ART in the intervention group compared to the control group.Specific CD4+ T-cell subsets are of considerable prognostic significance for patients initiating ART in Zambia, but only thymic output responded to this nutritional intervention.

  10. Quality prediction of bakery products in the initial phase of process design

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hadiyanto, H.; Asselman, A.; Straten, van G.; Boom, R.M.; Esveld, D.C.; Boxtel, van A.J.B.

    2007-01-01

    The development of food production processes is facilitated by tools which explore the interaction between process design, operation conditions and product characteristics. In this work an approach how to set-up a simulation model is presented for the phenomena and transformations which occur during

  11. Predictive Accuracy of Sweep Frequency Impedance Technology in Identifying Conductive Conditions in Newborns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aithal, Venkatesh; Kei, Joseph; Driscoll, Carlie; Murakoshi, Michio; Wada, Hiroshi

    2018-02-01

    Diagnosing conductive conditions in newborns is challenging for both audiologists and otolaryngologists. Although high-frequency tympanometry (HFT), acoustic stapedial reflex tests, and wideband absorbance measures are useful diagnostic tools, there is performance measure variability in their detection of middle ear conditions. Additional diagnostic sensitivity and specificity measures gained through new technology such as sweep frequency impedance (SFI) measures may assist in the diagnosis of middle ear dysfunction in newborns. The purpose of this study was to determine the test performance of SFI to predict the status of the outer and middle ear in newborns against commonly used reference standards. Automated auditory brainstem response (AABR), HFT (1000 Hz), transient evoked otoacoustic emission (TEOAE), distortion product otoacoustic emission (DPOAE), and SFI tests were administered to the study sample. A total of 188 neonates (98 males and 90 females) with a mean gestational age of 39.4 weeks were included in the sample. Mean age at the time of testing was 44.4 hr. Diagnostic accuracy of SFI was assessed in terms of its ability to identify conductive conditions in neonates when compared with nine different reference standards (including four single tests [AABR, HFT, TEOAE, and DPOAE] and five test batteries [HFT + DPOAE, HFT + TEOAE, DPOAE + TEOAE, DPOAE + AABR, and TEOAE + AABR]), using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis and traditional test performance measures such as sensitivity and specificity. The test performance of SFI against the test battery reference standard of HFT + DPOAE and single reference standard of HFT was high with an area under the ROC curve (AROC) of 0.87 and 0.82, respectively. Although the HFT + DPOAE test battery reference standard performed better than the HFT reference standard in predicting middle ear conductive conditions in neonates, the difference in AROC was not significant. Further analysis revealed that the

  12. Treatment and conditioning of low-level radioactive waste in Belgium: initial operating results of the Cilva facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Monsch, O.; Renard, C.; Deckers, J.; Luycx, P.

    1995-01-01

    The Belgian National Radioactive Waste and Enriched Fissile Material Agency (ONDRAF), which is responsible for the management of all radioactive waste in Belgium, recently decided to commission the CILVA facility. Operation of this facility, which comprises a number of units for the treatment of low-level radwaste, has been contracted to ONDRAF's Belgoprocess subsidiary based at the Dessel site. A consortium comprising SGN and Fabricom was in charge of building the CILVA facility's waste preparation and conditioning (concrete solidification) units. The concrete solidification processes, which were devised and developed by SGN, have been qualified to secure ONDRAF certification of the process and the facility. This enabled active commissioning of the waste conditioning unit in mid-August 1994. Active commissioning of the waste preparation unit was carried out in several stages up to the beginning of 1995 in accordance with operating requirements. Initial operating results of the two units are presented. (author)

  13. Decadal predictions of Southern Ocean sea ice : testing different initialization methods with an Earth-system Model of Intermediate Complexity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zunz, Violette; Goosse, Hugues; Dubinkina, Svetlana

    2013-04-01

    The sea ice extent in the Southern Ocean has increased since 1979 but the causes of this expansion have not been firmly identified. In particular, the contribution of internal variability and external forcing to this positive trend has not been fully established. In this region, the lack of observations and the overestimation of internal variability of the sea ice by contemporary General Circulation Models (GCMs) make it difficult to understand the behaviour of the sea ice. Nevertheless, if its evolution is governed by the internal variability of the system and if this internal variability is in some way predictable, a suitable initialization method should lead to simulations results that better fit the reality. Current GCMs decadal predictions are generally initialized through a nudging towards some observed fields. This relatively simple method does not seem to be appropriated to the initialization of sea ice in the Southern Ocean. The present study aims at identifying an initialization method that could improve the quality of the predictions of Southern Ocean sea ice at decadal timescales. We use LOVECLIM, an Earth-system Model of Intermediate Complexity that allows us to perform, within a reasonable computational time, the large amount of simulations required to test systematically different initialization procedures. These involve three data assimilation methods: a nudging, a particle filter and an efficient particle filter. In a first step, simulations are performed in an idealized framework, i.e. data from a reference simulation of LOVECLIM are used instead of observations, herein after called pseudo-observations. In this configuration, the internal variability of the model obviously agrees with the one of the pseudo-observations. This allows us to get rid of the issues related to the overestimation of the internal variability by models compared to the observed one. This way, we can work out a suitable methodology to assess the efficiency of the

  14. Developing A New Predictive Dispersion Equation Based on Tidal Average (TA) Condition in Alluvial Estuaries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anak Gisen, Jacqueline Isabella; Nijzink, Remko C.; Savenije, Hubert H. G.

    2014-05-01

    Dispersion mathematical representation of tidal mixing between sea water and fresh water in The definition of dispersion somehow remains unclear as it is not directly measurable. The role of dispersion is only meaningful if it is related to the appropriate temporal and spatial scale of mixing, which are identified as the tidal period, tidal excursion (longitudinal), width of estuary (lateral) and mixing depth (vertical). Moreover, the mixing pattern determines the salt intrusion length in an estuary. If a physically based description of the dispersion is defined, this would allow the analytical solution of the salt intrusion problem. The objective of this study is to develop a predictive equation for estimating the dispersion coefficient at tidal average (TA) condition, which can be applied in the salt intrusion model to predict the salinity profile for any estuary during different events. Utilizing available data of 72 measurements in 27 estuaries (including 6 recently studied estuaries in Malaysia), regressions analysis has been performed with various combinations of dimensionless parameters . The predictive dispersion equations have been developed for two different locations, at the mouth D0TA and at the inflection point D1TA (where the convergence length changes). Regressions have been carried out with two separated datasets: 1) more reliable data for calibration; and 2) less reliable data for validation. The combination of dimensionless ratios that give the best performance is selected as the final outcome which indicates that the dispersion coefficient is depending on the tidal excursion, tidal range, tidal velocity amplitude, friction and the Richardson Number. A limitation of the newly developed equation is that the friction is generally unknown. In order to compensate this problem, further analysis has been performed adopting the hydraulic model of Cai et. al. (2012) to estimate the friction and depth. Keywords: dispersion, alluvial estuaries, mixing, salt

  15. Prediction of minimum UO2 particle size based on thermal stress initiated fracture model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Corradini, M.

    1976-08-01

    An analytic study was employed to determine the minimum UO 2 particle size that could survive fragmentation induced by thermal stresses in a UO 2 -Na Fuel Coolant Interaction (FCI). A brittle fracture mechanics approach was the basis of the study whereby stress intensity factors K/sub I/ were compared to the fracture toughness K/sub IC/ to determine if the particle could fracture. Solid and liquid UO 2 droplets were considered each with two possible interface contact conditions; perfect wetting by the sodium or a finite heat transfer coefficient. The analysis indicated that particles below the range of 50 microns in radius could survive a UO 2 -Na fuel coolant interaction under the most severe temperature conditions without thermal stress fragmentation. Environmental conditions of the fuel-coolant interaction were varied to determine the effects upon K/sub I/ and possible fragmentation. The underlying assumptions of the analysis were investigated in light of the analytic results. It was concluded that the analytic study seemed to verify the experimental observations as to the range of the minimum particle size due to thermal stress fragmentation by FCI. However the method used when the results are viewed in light of the basic assumptions indicates that the analysis is crude at best, and can be viewed as only a rough order of magnitude analysis. The basic complexities in fracture mechanics make further investigation in this area interesting but not necessarily fruitful for the immediate future

  16. Initial reaction between CaO and SO2 under carbonating and non-carbonating conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Martin Hagsted; Wedel, Stig; Pedersen, Kim H.

    2015-01-01

    The initial kinetics of the CaO/SO2 reaction have been investigated for reaction times shorter than 1s and in the temperature interval between 450 and 600°C under both carbonating and non-carbonating conditions (0-20 vol% CO2) to clarify how recirculating CaO influences the emission of SO2 from...... showed that the CaO conversion with respect to SO2 declined when the CO2 concentration was increased. Under all conditions, larger specific surface areas of CaO gave higher reaction rates with SO2. Higher temperatures had a positive effect on the reaction between SO2 and CaO under non......-carbonating conditions, but no or even a negative effect under carbonating conditions. The results led to the conclusion that SO2 released from raw meal in the upper stages of the preheater does not to any significant extent react with CaO recirculating in the preheater tower....

  17. Computational prediction of the refinement of oxide agglomerates in a physical conditioning process for molten aluminium alloy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tong, M; Jagarlapudi, S C; Browne, D J; Patel, J B; Stone, I C; Fan, Z

    2015-01-01

    Physically conditioning molten scrap aluminium alloys using high shear processing (HSP) was recently found to be a promising technology for purification of contaminated alloys. HSP refines the solid oxide agglomerates in molten alloys, so that they can act as sites for the nucleation of Fe-rich intermetallic phases which can subsequently be removed by the downstream de-drossing process. In this paper, a computational modelling for predicting the evolution of size of oxide clusters during HSP is presented. We used CFD to predict the macroscopic flow features of the melt, and the resultant field predictions of temperature and melt shear rate were transferred to a population balance model (PBM) as its key inputs. The PBM is a macroscopic model that formulates the microscopic agglomeration and breakage of a population of a dispersed phase. Although it has been widely used to study conventional deoxidation of liquid metal, this is the first time that PBM has been used to simulate the melt conditioning process within a rotor/stator HSP device. We employed a method which discretizes the continuous profile of size of the dispersed phase into a collection of discrete bins of size, to solve the governing population balance equation for the size of agglomerates. A finite volume method was used to solve the continuity equation, the energy equation and the momentum equation. The overall computation was implemented mainly using the FLUENT module of ANSYS. The simulations showed that there is a relatively high melt shear rate between the stator and sweeping tips of the rotor blades. This high shear rate leads directly to significant fragmentation of the initially large oxide aggregates. Because the process of agglomeration is significantly slower than the breakage processes at the beginning of HSP, the mean size of oxide clusters decreases very rapidly. As the process of agglomeration gradually balances the process of breakage, the mean size of oxide clusters converges to a

  18. Computational prediction of the refinement of oxide agglomerates in a physical conditioning process for molten aluminium alloy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tong, M.; Jagarlapudi, S. C.; Patel, J. B.; Stone, I. C.; Fan, Z.; Browne, D. J.

    2015-06-01

    Physically conditioning molten scrap aluminium alloys using high shear processing (HSP) was recently found to be a promising technology for purification of contaminated alloys. HSP refines the solid oxide agglomerates in molten alloys, so that they can act as sites for the nucleation of Fe-rich intermetallic phases which can subsequently be removed by the downstream de-drossing process. In this paper, a computational modelling for predicting the evolution of size of oxide clusters during HSP is presented. We used CFD to predict the macroscopic flow features of the melt, and the resultant field predictions of temperature and melt shear rate were transferred to a population balance model (PBM) as its key inputs. The PBM is a macroscopic model that formulates the microscopic agglomeration and breakage of a population of a dispersed phase. Although it has been widely used to study conventional deoxidation of liquid metal, this is the first time that PBM has been used to simulate the melt conditioning process within a rotor/stator HSP device. We employed a method which discretizes the continuous profile of size of the dispersed phase into a collection of discrete bins of size, to solve the governing population balance equation for the size of agglomerates. A finite volume method was used to solve the continuity equation, the energy equation and the momentum equation. The overall computation was implemented mainly using the FLUENT module of ANSYS. The simulations showed that there is a relatively high melt shear rate between the stator and sweeping tips of the rotor blades. This high shear rate leads directly to significant fragmentation of the initially large oxide aggregates. Because the process of agglomeration is significantly slower than the breakage processes at the beginning of HSP, the mean size of oxide clusters decreases very rapidly. As the process of agglomeration gradually balances the process of breakage, the mean size of oxide clusters converges to a

  19. Prediction of Spring Rate and Initial Failure Load due to Material Properties of Composite Leaf Spring

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oh, Sung Ha; Choi, Bok Lok

    2014-01-01

    This paper presented analysis methods for adapting E-glass fiber/epoxy composite (GFRP) materials to an automotive leaf spring. It focused on the static behaviors of the leaf spring due to the material composition and its fiber orientation. The material properties of the GFRP composite were directly measured based on the ASTM standard test. A reverse implementation was performed to obtain the complete set of in-situ fiber and matrix properties from the ply test results. Next, the spring rates of the composite leaf spring were examined according to the variation of material parameters such as the fiber angles and resin contents of the composite material. Finally, progressive failure analysis was conducted to identify the initial failure load by means of an elastic stress analysis and specific damage criteria. As a result, it was found that damage first occurred along the edge of the leaf spring owing to the shear stresses

  20. Physical Activity Predicts Higher Physical Function in Older Adults: The Osteoarthritis Initiative.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Batsis, John A; Germain, Cassandra M; Vásquez, Elizabeth; Zbehlik, Alicia J; Bartels, Stephen J

    2016-01-01

    Physical activity reduces mobility impairments in elders. We examined the association of physical activity on risk of subjective and objective physical function in adults with and at risk for osteoarthritis (OA). Adults aged ≥ 60 years from the longitudinal Osteoarthritis Initiative, a prospective observational study of knee OA, were classified by sex-specific quartiles of Physical Activity Score for the Elderly scores. Using linear mixed models, we assessed 6-year data on self-reported health, gait speed, Late-Life Function and Disability Index (LLFDI) and chair stand. Of 2252 subjects, mean age ranged from 66 to 70 years. Within each quartile, physical component (PCS) of the Short Form-12 and gait speed decreased from baseline to follow-up in both sexes (all P physical activity is associated with maintained physical function and is mediated by muscle strength, highlighting the importance of encouraging physical activity in older adults with and at risk for OA.

  1. Can initial perceptions about quitting predict smoking cessation among Malaysian smokers?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yasin, Siti Munira; Masilamani, Retneswari; Ming, Moy Foong; Koh, David; Zaki, Rafdzah Ahmad

    2012-03-01

    Perceived risks and benefits of quitting smoking may be important factors in successful treatment. This study examined the association between initial perceived risks and benefits of quitting smoking and outcomes during a two month smoking cessation attempt. Participants (n = 185) were treatment-seeking smokers attending two smoking cessation clinics in Klang Valley, Malaysia. They received structured behavioral therapy and free Nicotine Replacement Therapy (NRT). Prior to treatment, a 12 item Perceived Risks and Benefits Questionnaire (PRBQ) was administered. This was used to assess the smoker's initial perceptions during their quit attempt. Participants were re-contacted at the end of two months to determine their smoking status. The results show participants intending to quit demonstrated a greater understanding of the benefits of quitting smoking than the risks of quitting. Those with a higher education level had a greater understanding of the benefits of quitting (p = 0.02). PRBQ items, such as perceived risks of quitting (ie weight gain, negative affect, social ostracism, loss of enjoyment and craving) were not associated with abstinence at two months. However, those who perceived a benefit of higher physical attraction post-cessation were less likely to have stopped smoking at two months (OR 0.18; 95% CI 0.08-0.45). Other perceived benefits at baseline, such as health, general well-being, self-esteem, finances and social approval, were not associated with smoking cessation at two months. The results suggest that in our study population, smokers' baseline perceptions of the benefits of cessation of smoking prior to therapy are not associated with quit results at two months. Counseling patients regarding the advantages and disadvantages of quitting may have changed their perceptions during quitting process and should be further explored in future studies.

  2. Initial conditions for inflation and the energy scale of SUSY-breaking from the (nearly) gaussian sky

    CERN Document Server

    Álvarez-Gaumé, Luis; Jimenez, Raul

    We show how general initial conditions for small field inflation can be obtained in multi-field models. This is provided by non-linear angular friction terms in the inflaton that provide a phase of non-slow-roll inflation before the slow-roll inflation phase. This in turn provides a natural mechanism to star small-field slow-roll at nearly zero velocity for arbitrary initial conditions. We also show that there is a relation between the scale of SUSY breaking sqrt (f) and the amount of non-gaussian fluctuations generated by the inflaton. In particular, we show that in the local non-gaussian shape there exists the relation sqrt (f) = 10^{13} GeV sqrt (f_NL). With current observational limits from Planck, and adopting the minimum amount of non-gaussian fluctuations allowed by single-field inflation, this provides a very tight constraint for the SUSY breaking energy scale sqrt (f) = 3-7 x 10^{13} GeV at 95% confidence. Further limits, or detection, from next year's Planck polarisation data will further tighten th...

  3. Aldosterone Does Not Predict Cardiovascular Events Following Acute Coronary Syndrome in Patients Initially Without Heart Failure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pitts, Reynaria; Gunzburger, Elise; Ballantyne, Christie M; Barter, Philip J; Kallend, David; Leiter, Lawrence A; Leitersdorf, Eran; Nicholls, Stephen J; Shah, Prediman K; Tardif, Jean-Claude; Olsson, Anders G; McMurray, John J V; Kittelson, John; Schwartz, Gregory G

    2017-01-10

    Aldosterone may have adverse effects in the myocardium and vasculature. Treatment with an aldosterone antagonist reduces cardiovascular risk in patients with acute myocardial infarction complicated by heart failure (HF) and left ventricular systolic dysfunction. However, most patients with acute coronary syndrome do not have advanced HF. Among such patients, it is unknown whether aldosterone predicts cardiovascular risk. To address this question, we examined data from the dal-OUTCOMES trial that compared the cholesteryl ester transfer protein inhibitor dalcetrapib with placebo, beginning 4 to 12 weeks after an index acute coronary syndrome. Patients with New York Heart Association class II (with LVEF coronary heart disease death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, stroke, hospitalization for unstable angina, or resuscitated cardiac arrest. Hospitalization for HF was a secondary endpoint. Over a median follow-up of 37 months, the primary outcome occurred in 366 patients (9.0%), and hospitalization for HF occurred in 72 patients (1.8%). There was no association between aldosterone and either the time to first occurrence of a primary outcome (hazard ratio for doubling of aldosterone 0.92, 95% confidence interval 0.78-1.09, P=0.34) or hospitalization for HF (hazard ratio 1.38, 95% CI 0.96-1.99, P=0.08) in Cox regression models adjusted for covariates. In patients with recent acute coronary syndrome but without advanced HF, aldosterone does not predict major cardiovascular events. URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00658515. © 2017 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley Blackwell.

  4. A hybrid prognostic model for multistep ahead prediction of machine condition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roulias, D.; Loutas, T. H.; Kostopoulos, V.

    2012-05-01

    Prognostics are the future trend in condition based maintenance. In the current framework a data driven prognostic model is developed. The typical procedure of developing such a model comprises a) the selection of features which correlate well with the gradual degradation of the machine and b) the training of a mathematical tool. In this work the data are taken from a laboratory scale single stage gearbox under multi-sensor monitoring. Tests monitoring the condition of the gear pair from healthy state until total brake down following several days of continuous operation were conducted. After basic pre-processing of the derived data, an indicator that correlated well with the gearbox condition was obtained. Consecutively the time series is split in few distinguishable time regions via an intelligent data clustering scheme. Each operating region is modelled with a feed-forward artificial neural network (FFANN) scheme. The performance of the proposed model is tested by applying the system to predict the machine degradation level on unseen data. The results show the plausibility and effectiveness of the model in following the trend of the timeseries even in the case that a sudden change occurs. Moreover the model shows ability to generalise for application in similar mechanical assets.

  5. Probabilistic prediction of expected ground condition and construction time and costs in road tunnels

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Mahmoodzadeh

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Ground condition and construction (excavation and support time and costs are the key factors in decision-making during planning and design phases of a tunnel project. An innovative methodology for probabilistic estimation of ground condition and construction time and costs is proposed, which is an integration of the ground prediction approach based on Markov process, and the time and cost variance analysis based on Monte-Carlo (MC simulation. The former provides the probabilistic description of ground classification along tunnel alignment according to the geological information revealed from geological profile and boreholes. The latter provides the probabilistic description of the expected construction time and costs for each operation according to the survey feedbacks from experts. Then an engineering application to Hamro tunnel is presented to demonstrate how the ground condition and the construction time and costs are estimated in a probabilistic way. In most items, in order to estimate the data needed for this methodology, a number of questionnaires are distributed among the tunneling experts and finally the mean values of the respondents are applied. These facilitate both the owners and the contractors to be aware of the risk that they should carry before construction, and are useful for both tendering and bidding.

  6. Durability study and lifetime prediction of baseline proton exchange membrane fuel cell under severe operating conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marrony, M.; Quenet, S.; Aslanides, A. [European Institute for Energy Research, Emmy-Noether Strasse 11, 76131 Karlsruhe (Germany); Barrera, R.; Ginocchio, S.; Montelatici, L. [Edison, Via Giorgio La Pira 2, 10028 Trofarello (Italy)

    2008-08-01

    Comparative studies of mechanical and electrochemical properties of Nafion{sup registered} - and sulfonated polyetheretherketone polymer-type membranes are carried out under severe fuel cell conditions required by industrials, within stationary and cycling electric load profiles. These membranes are proposed to be used in PEM between 70 and 90 C as fluorinated or non-fluorinated baseline membranes, respectively. Thus, though the performance of both membranes remains suitable, Nafion{sup registered} backbone brought better mechanical properties and higher electrochemical stabilities than sulfonated polyetheretherketone backbone. The performance stability and the mechanical strength of the membrane-electrode assembly were shown to be influenced by several intrinsic properties of the membrane (e.g., thermal pre-treatment, thickness) and external conditions (fuel cell operating temperature, relative humidity). Finally, a lifetime prediction for membranes under stationary conditions is proposed depending on the operation temperature. At equivalent thicknesses (i.e. 50 {mu}m), Nafion{sup registered} membranes were estimated able to operate into the 80-90 C range while sulfonated polyetheretherketone would be limited into the 70-80 C range. This approach brings baseline information about the capability of these types of polymer electrolyte membrane under fuel cell critical operations. Finally, it is revealed as a potential tool for the selection of the most promising advanced polymers for the ensuing research phase. (author)

  7. Effectiveness of short-term numerical weather prediction in predicting growing degree days and meteorological conditions for apple scab appearance

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Lalic, B.; Francia, M.; Eitzinger, Josef; Podrascanin, Z.; Arsenic, I.

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 23, č. 1 (2016), s. 50-56 ISSN 1350-4827 Institutional support: RVO:86652079 Keywords : venturia-inaequalis * temperature * equation * schemes * model * numerical weather prediction * disease prediction * verification * apple scab * growing degree days Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology OBOR OECD: Meteorology and atmospheric sciences Impact factor: 1.411, year: 2016

  8. Semiclassical modelling of finite-pulse effects on non-adiabatic photodynamics via initial condition filtering: The predissociation of NaI as a test case

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Martínez-Mesa, Aliezer [Departmento de Física Teórica, Universidad de la Habana, San Lázaro y L, La Habana 10400 (Cuba); Institut für Chemie, Universität Potsdam, Karl-Liebknecht-Strasse 24-25, D-14476 Potsdam-Golm (Germany); Saalfrank, Peter [Institut für Chemie, Universität Potsdam, Karl-Liebknecht-Strasse 24-25, D-14476 Potsdam-Golm (Germany)

    2015-05-21

    Femtosecond-laser pulse driven non-adiabatic spectroscopy and dynamics in molecular and condensed phase systems continue to be a challenge for theoretical modelling. One of the main obstacles is the “curse of dimensionality” encountered in non-adiabatic, exact wavepacket propagation. A possible route towards treating complex molecular systems is via semiclassical surface-hopping schemes, in particular if they account not only for non-adiabatic post-excitation dynamics but also for the initial optical excitation. One such approach, based on initial condition filtering, will be put forward in what follows. As a simple test case which can be compared with exact wavepacket dynamics, we investigate the influence of the different parameters determining the shape of a laser pulse (e.g., its finite width and a possible chirp) on the predissociation dynamics of a NaI molecule, upon photoexcitation of the A(0{sup +}) state. The finite-pulse effects are mapped into the initial conditions for semiclassical surface-hopping simulations. The simulated surface-hopping diabatic populations are in qualitative agreement with the quantum mechanical results, especially concerning the subpicosend photoinduced dynamics, the main deviations being the relative delay of the non-adiabatic transitions in the semiclassical picture. Likewise, these differences in the time-dependent electronic populations calculated via the semiclassical and the quantum methods are found to have a mild influence on the overall probability density distribution. As a result, the branching ratios between the bound and the dissociative reaction channels and the time-evolution of the molecular wavepacket predicted by the semiclassical method agree with those computed using quantum wavepacket propagation. Implications for more challenging molecular systems are given.

  9. Time dependency of the prediction skill for the North Atlantic subpolar gyre in initialized decadal hindcasts with MPI-ESM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brune, Sebastian; Düsterhus, Andre; Pohlmann, Holger; Müller, Wolfgang; Baehr, Johanna

    2017-04-01

    We analyze the time dependency of decadal hindcast skill in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre within the time period 1961-2013. We compare anomaly correlation coefficients and interquartile ranges of total upper ocean heat content and sea surface temperature for three differently initialized sets of hindcast simulations with the global coupled model MPI-ESM. All initializations use weakly coupled assimilation with the same full-field nudging in the atmospheric component and different assimilation techniques for oceanic temperature and salinity: (1) ensemble Kalman filter assimilating EN4 and HadISST observations, (2) nudging of anomalies to ORAS4 reanalysis, (3) nudging of full values to ORAS4 reanalysis. We find that hindcast skill depends strongly on the evaluation time period, with higher hindcast skill during strong multiyear trends and lower hindcast skill in the absence of such trends. While there may only be small differences between the prediction systems in the analysis focusing on the entire hindcast period, these differences between the hindcast systems are much more pronounced when investigating any 20-year subperiod within the entire hindcast period. For the ensemble Kalman filter high skill in the assimilation experiment is generally linked to high skill in the initialized hindcasts. Such direct link does not seem to exist in the hindcasts initialized by either nudged system. In the ensemble Kalman filter initialized hindcasts, we find significant hindcast skill for up to 5 to 8 lead years, except for the 1970s. In the nudged system initialized hindcasts, hindcast skill is consistently diminished in lead years 2 and 3 with lowest skill in the 1970s as well. Overall, we find that a model-consistent assimilation technique can improve hindcast skill. Further, the evaluation of 20 year subperiods within the full hindcast period provides essential insights to judge the success of both the assimilation and the subsequent hindcast skill.

  10. Predicting Recurrence and Progression of Noninvasive Papillary Bladder Cancer at Initial Presentation Based on Quantitative Gene Expression Profiles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Birkhahn, M.; Mitra, A.P.; Williams, Johan

    2010-01-01

    % specificity. Since this is a small retrospective study using medium-throughput profiling, larger confirmatory studies are needed. Conclusions: Gene expression profiling across relevant cancer pathways appears to be a promising approach for Ta bladder tumor outcome prediction at initial diagnosis......Background: Currently, tumor grade is the best predictor of outcome at first presentation of noninvasive papillary (Ta) bladder cancer. However, reliable predictors of Ta tumor recurrence and progression for individual patients, which could optimize treatment and follow-up schedules based...... on specific tumor biology, are yet to be identified. Objective: To identify genes predictive for recurrence and progression in Ta bladder cancer at first presentation using a quantitative, pathway-specific approach. Design, setting, and participants: Retrospective study of patients with Ta G2/3 bladder tumors...

  11. Transients from initial conditions based on Lagrangian perturbation theory in N-body simulations II: the effect of the transverse mode

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tatekawa, Takayuki

    2014-01-01

    We study the initial conditions for cosmological N-body simulations for precision cosmology. In general, Zel'dovich approximation has been applied for the initial conditions of N-body simulations for a long time. These initial conditions provide incorrect higher-order growth. These error caused by setting up the initial conditions by perturbation theory is called transients. We investigated the impact of transient on non-Gaussianity of density field by performing cosmological N-body simulations with initial conditions based on first-, second-, and third-order Lagrangian perturbation theory in previous paper. In this paper, we evaluates the effect of the transverse mode in the third-order Lagrangian perturbation theory for several statistical quantities such as power spectrum and non-Gaussianty. Then we clarified that the effect of the transverse mode in the third-order Lagrangian perturbation theory is quite small

  12. Predicted Geology of the Pahute Mesa-Oasis Valley Phase II Drilling Initiative

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-01-01

    Pahute Mesa-Oasis Valley (PM-OV) Phase II drilling will occur within an area that encompasses approximately 117 square kilometers (45 square miles) near the center of the Phase I PM-OV hydrostratigraphic framework model area. The majority of the investigation area lies within dissected volcanic terrain between Pahute Mesa on the north and Timber Mountain on the south. This area consists of a complex distribution of volcanic tuff and lava of generally rhyolitic composition erupted from nearby calderas and related vents. Several large buried volcanic structural features control the distribution of volcanic units in the investigation area. The Area 20 caldera, including its structural margin and associated caldera collapse collar, underlies the northeastern portion of the investigation area. The southern half of the investigation area lies within the northwestern portion of the Timber Mountain caldera complex, including portions of the caldera moat and resurgent dome. Another significant structural feature in the area is the west-northwest-trending Northern Timber Mountain moat structural zone, which bisects the northern portion of the investigation area and forms a structural bench. The proposed wells of the UGTA Phase II drilling initiative can be grouped into four generalized volcanic structural domains based on the stratigraphic distribution and structural position of the volcanic rocks in the upper 1,000 meters (3,300 feet) of the crust, a depth that represents the approximate planned total depths of the proposed wells

  13. The voiced pronunciation of initial phonemes predicts the gender of names.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slepian, Michael L; Galinsky, Adam D

    2016-04-01

    Although it is known that certain names gain popularity within a culture because of historical events, it is unknown how names become associated with different social categories in the first place. We propose that vocal cord vibration during the pronunciation of an initial phoneme plays a critical role in explaining which names are assigned to males versus females. This produces a voiced gendered name effect, whereby voiced phonemes (vibration of the vocal cords) are more associated with male names, and unvoiced phonemes (no vibration of the vocal cords) are more associated with female names. Eleven studies test this association between voiced names and gender (a) using 270 million names (more than 80,000 unique names) given to children over 75 years, (b) names across 2 cultures (the U.S. and India), and (c) hundreds of novel names. The voiced gendered name effect was mediated through how hard or soft names sounded, and moderated by gender stereotype endorsement. Although extensive work has demonstrated morphological and physical cues to gender (e.g., facial, bodily, vocal), this work provides a systematic account of name-based cues to gender. Overall, the current research extends work on sound symbolism to names; the way in which a name sounds can be symbolically related to stereotypes associated with its social category. (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  14. Predicting self-initiated marijuana use cessation among youth at continuation high schools

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Melissa A. Little

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available The current article reports a large scale study of the prediction of marijuana use cessation among individuals attending alternative high schools who were regular users at baseline. Based on the Triadic Influence Theory, predictors of marijuana use cessation at one-year follow-up were organized by type of influence (e.g., interpersonal, cultural and attitudinal, and intrapersonal and level of influence (e.g., distal and ultimate. Among the 522 students who were past 30-day marijuana users at baseline, quitting was defined as having not used marijuana in the last 30 days at one-year follow-up (43% of baseline users. To account for the level of influence we employed a theory-based analytic strategy, hierarchical regression. In the final multivariate model, lower level of baseline marijuana use and less of a likelihood to endorse pro-drug-use myths remained predictors of marijuana use cessation one year later. Implications of these findings include the need to develop cessation programs that reduce psychological dependence on marijuana use, and correct cognitive misperceptions about drug use in order to help adolescents make decisions that lead to health-promoting behaviors.

  15. Probabilistic methods for condition assessment and life prediction of concrete structures in nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ellingwood, B.R.; Mori, Yasuhiro

    1993-01-01

    A probability-based methodology is being developed in support of the NRC Structural Aging Program to assist in evaluating the reliability of existing concrete structures in nuclear power plants under potential future operating loads and extreme evironmental and accidental events. The methodology includes models to predict structural deterioration due to environmental stressors, a database to support the use of these models, and methods for analyzing time-dependent reliability of concrete structural components subjected to stochastic loads. The methodology can be used to support a plant license extension application by providing evidence that safety-related concrete structures in their current (service) condition are able to withstand future extreme events with a level of reliability sufficient for public health and safety. (orig.)

  16. Method for Prediction of the Power Output from Photovoltaic Power Plant under Actual Operating Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Obukhov, S. G.; Plotnikov, I. A.; Surzhikova, O. A.; Savkin, K. D.

    2017-04-01

    Solar photovoltaic technology is one of the most rapidly growing renewable sources of electricity that has practical application in various fields of human activity due to its high availability, huge potential and environmental compatibility. The original simulation model of the photovoltaic power plant has been developed to simulate and investigate the plant operating modes under actual operating conditions. The proposed model considers the impact of the external climatic factors on the solar panel energy characteristics that improves accuracy in the power output prediction. The data obtained through the photovoltaic power plant operation simulation enable a well-reasoned choice of the required capacity for storage devices and determination of the rational algorithms to control the energy complex.

  17. Predicting speech intelligibility in adverse conditions: evaluation of the speech-based envelope power spectrum model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Søren; Dau, Torsten

    2011-01-01

    conditions by comparing predictions to measured data from [Kjems et al. (2009). J. Acoust. Soc. Am. 126 (3), 1415-1426] where speech is mixed with four different interferers, including speech-shaped noise, bottle noise, car noise, and cafe noise. The model accounts well for the differences in intelligibility......The speech-based envelope power spectrum model (sEPSM) [Jørgensen and Dau (2011). J. Acoust. Soc. Am., 130 (3), 1475–1487] estimates the envelope signal-to-noise ratio (SNRenv) of distorted speech and accurately describes the speech recognition thresholds (SRT) for normal-hearing listeners...... observed for the different interferers. None of the standardized models successfully describe these data....

  18. Tolerance and potential for adaptation of a Baltic Sea rockweed under predicted climate change conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rugiu, Luca; Manninen, Iita; Rothäusler, Eva; Jormalainen, Veijo

    2018-03-01

    Climate change is threating species' persistence worldwide. To predict species responses to climate change we need information not just on their environmental tolerance but also on its adaptive potential. We tested how the foundation species of rocky littoral habitats, Fucus vesiculosus, responds to combined hyposalinity and warming projected to the Baltic Sea by 2070-2099. We quantified responses of replicated populations originating from the entrance, central, and marginal Baltic regions. Using replicated individuals, we tested for the presence of within-population tolerance variation. Future conditions hampered growth and survival of the central and marginal populations whereas the entrance populations fared well. Further, both the among- and within-population variation in responses to climate change indicated existence of genetic variation in tolerance. Such standing genetic variation provides the raw material necessary for adaptation to a changing environment, which may eventually ensure the persistence of the species in the inner Baltic Sea. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Numerical prediction of the natural frequency of an Oscillating Water Column operating under resonant conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marco Torresi

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Among the different technologies developed in order to harness wave energy, the Oscillating Water Column devices are the most accredited for an actual diffusion. Recently, Boccotti has patented the REWEC1 (REsonant sea Wave Energy Converter solution 1, a submerged breakwater that performs an active coast protection, embedding an Oscillating Water Column device, which is capable of operating under resonant conditions with that sea state, which gives the highest yearly energy contribution. The REWEC1 dynamic behavior can be approximated by means of a mass-spring-damper system. According to this approximation, a criterion for evaluating the oscillating natural frequency of the REWEC1 has been derived. This criterion has been validated against both experimental results and computational fluid dynamics simulations, performed on a REWEC1 laboratory-scale model. The numerical simulations have shown a good agreement between measurements and predictions.

  20. Lack of predictive power of trait fear and anxiety for conditioned pain modulation (CPM).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horn-Hofmann, Claudia; Priebe, Janosch A; Schaller, Jörg; Görlitz, Rüdiger; Lautenbacher, Stefan

    2016-12-01

    In recent years the association of conditioned pain modulation (CPM) with trait fear and anxiety has become a hot topic in pain research due to the assumption that such variables may explain the low CPM efficiency in some individuals. However, empirical evidence concerning this association is still equivocal. Our study is the first to investigate the predictive power of fear and anxiety for CPM by using a well-established psycho-physiological measure of trait fear, i.e. startle potentiation, in addition to two self-report measures of pain-related trait anxiety. Forty healthy, pain-free participants (female: N = 20; age: M = 23.62 years) underwent two experimental blocks in counter-balanced order: (1) a startle paradigm with affective picture presentation and (2) a CPM procedure with hot water as conditioning stimulus (CS) and contact heat as test stimulus (TS). At the end of the experimental session, pain catastrophizing (PCS) and pain anxiety (PASS) were assessed. PCS score, PASS score and startle potentiation to threatening pictures were entered as predictors in a linear regression model with CPM magnitude as criterion. We were able to show an inhibitory CPM effect in our sample: pain ratings of the heat stimuli were significantly reduced during hot water immersion. However, CPM was neither predicted by self-report of pain-related anxiety nor by startle potentiation as psycho-physiological measure of trait fear. These results corroborate previous negative findings concerning the association between trait fear/anxiety and CPM efficiency and suggest that shifting the focus from trait to state measures might be promising.

  1. Microcomputer based program for predicting heat transfer under reactor accident conditions. Volume I

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cheng, S.C.; Groeneveld, D.C.; Leung, L.K.H.; Wong, Y.L.; Nguyen, C.

    1987-07-01

    A microcomputer based program called Heat Transfer Prediction Software (HTPS) has been developed. It calculates the heat transfer for the tube and bundle geometries for steady state and transient conditions. This program is capable of providing the best estimated of the hot pin temperatures during slow transients for 37- and 28-element CANDU type fuel bundles. The program is designed for an IBM-PC AT/XT (or IBM-PC compatible computer) equipped with a Math Co-processor. The following input parameters are required: pressure, mass flux, hydraulic diameter, and quality. For the steady state case, the critical heat flux (CHF), the critical heat flux temperature, the minimum film boiling temperature, and the minimum film boiling heat flux are the primary outputs. With either the surface heat flux or wall temperature specified, the program determines the heat transfer regime and calculates the surface heat flux, wall temperatures and heat transfer coefficient. For the slow transient case, the pressure, mass flux, quality, and volumetric heat generation rate are the time dependent input parameters required to calculate the hot pin sheath temperatures and surface heat fluxes. A simple routine for generating properties has been developed for light water to support the above program. It contains correlations that have been verified for pressures ranging from 0.6kPa to 30 MPa, and temperatures up to 1100 degrees Celcius. The thermodynamic and transport properties that can be generated from this routine are: density, specific volume, enthalpy, specific heat capacity, conductivity, viscosity, surface tension and Prandtl number for saturated liquid, saturated vapour, subcooled liquid for superheated vapour. A software for predicting flow regime has also been developed. It determines the flow pattern at specific flow conditions, and provides a correction factor for calculating the CHF during partially stratified horizontal flow. The technical bases for the program and its

  2. Microcomputer based program for predicting heat transfer under reactor accident conditions. Volume II

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cheng, S.C.; Groeneveld, D.C.; Leung, L.K.H.; Wong, Y.L.; Nguyen, C.

    1987-07-01

    A microcomputer based program called Heat Transfer Prediction Software (HTPS) has been developed. It calculates the heat transfer for tube and bundle geometries for steady state and transient conditions. This program is capable of providing the best estimated of the hot pin temperatures during slow transients for 37- and 28-element CANDU type fuel bundles. The program is designed for an IBM-PC AT/XT (or IBM-PC compatible computer) equipped with a Math Co-processor. The following input parameters are required: pressure, mass flux, hydraulic diameter, and quality. For the steady state case, the critical heat flux (CHF), the critical heat flux temperature, the minimum film boiling temperature, and the minimum film boiling heat flux are the primary outputs. With either the surface heat flux or wall temperature specified, the program determines the heat transfer regime and calculates the surface heat flux, wall temperature and heat transfer coefficient. For the slow transient case, the pressure, mass flux, quality, and volumetric heat generation rate are the time dependent input parameters are required to calculate the hot pin sheath temperatures and surface heat fluxes. A simple routine for generating properties has been developed for light water to support the above program. It contains correlations that have been verified for pressures ranging from 0.6kPa to 30 MPa, and temperatures up to 1100 degrees Celcius. The thermodynamic and transport properties that can be generated from this routine are: density, specific volume, enthalpy, specific heat capacity, conductivity, viscosity, surface tension and Prandtle number for saturated liquid, saturated vapour, subcooled liquid of superheated vapour. A software for predicting flow regime has also been developed. It determines the flow pattern at specific flow conditions, and provides a correction factor for calculating the CHF during partially stratified horizontal flow. The technical bases for the program and its structure

  3. PREDICTION AND ANALYSIS OF SLOVAKIAN TIMBER TRADE ON GLOBAL MARKET CONDITIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miloš Gejdoš

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available In Slovakian forestry the main source of finance is the wood sale. The main aim of this paper is to evaluate the assortments supply structure (quality management, prices development for the coniferous sawlogs and to set the future prediction of this development in new global market conditions, which are affected mainly by the global climate changes. Price changes were analysed for the period of the years from 2000 to March 2016 for the spruce and fir sawlogs. Data about the volume supply of raw-wood assortments in Slovakia for years 2005-2014 were collected from “Green Reports“ published by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development of the Slovak Republic. From the influence factors in the studied period, the biggest impact was assigned to the global economic crisis. The prediction captures the further decline of prices of raw-wood assortments. In the second half of the year 2016 the price of sawlogs decreased by € 4 per 1 m3. Local impacts, the structure of wood processors and specific trade area in Slovakia affected substantially the structure of assortments on Market. There is also some space for a better evaluation of harvested wood.

  4. A Novel Adaptive Conditional Probability-Based Predicting Model for User’s Personality Traits

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mengmeng Wang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available With the pervasive increase in social media use, the explosion of users’ generated data provides a potentially very rich source of information, which plays an important role in helping online researchers understand user’s behaviors deeply. Since user’s personality traits are the driving force of user’s behaviors, hence, in this paper, along with social network features, we first extract linguistic features, emotional statistical features, and topic features from user’s Facebook status updates, followed by quantifying importance of features via Kendall correlation coefficient. And then, on the basis of weighted features and dynamic updated thresholds of personality traits, we deploy a novel adaptive conditional probability-based predicting model which considers prior knowledge of correlations between user’s personality traits to predict user’s Big Five personality traits. In the experimental work, we explore the existence of correlations between user’s personality traits which provides a better theoretical support for our proposed method. Moreover, on the same Facebook dataset, compared to other methods, our method can achieve an F1-measure of 80.6% when taking into account correlations between user’s personality traits, and there is an impressive improvement of 5.8% over other approaches.

  5. Predicting risk of rill initiation in a sub-catchment of Lake Balaton, Hungary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hausner, C.; Sisák, I.

    2009-04-01

    Rill erosion is an accelerated form of soil degradation. It removes much more soil and nutrients from the agricultural land than sheet erosion. Soils in the southern sub-watershed of Lake Balaton are especially prone to rill erosion and they contribute to siltation of ditches, to muddy floods and to eutrofication of the lake. The parent material in this region is mainly (sandy) loess and the soils are already moderately or strongly eroded thus, the low tolerance of loess against erosion determines erodibility. Identification of soils with high risk of rill erosion is crucial to plan mitigation measures. Soil erodibility has been investigated in this study in the catchment of Tetves stream. The USLE soil erodibility factor and soil slaking are widely accepted indicators for soil erosion. Both of them are published for all soil texture classes in handbooks of soil mapping. We have found that erodibility derived from our physical model has a close linear correlation with the product of the USLE soil erodibility factor and soil slaking grade thus, USLE could be directly used to assess parameters for physical based models. Rill erosion is highly probable if the product of KUSLE X slaking grade is above 2. Digital maps were produced to delineate soils with high potential for rill erosion. The basic data for the soil properties were drawn from the 1:10,000 soil map. Soil texture classes were used to assign KUSLE and slaking grade to the soil units. Beyond soil properties, other factors also influence rill formation: slope, surface cover, rainfall intensity. However, identifying soil properties, which make soils prone to rill erosion, is an important initial step for the reduction of diffuse agricultural loads to Lake Balaton. It might be the objective of River Basin Management Plans in the Water Framework Directive to prevent rill erosion and our study provides scientific evidence for targeting this policy.

  6. Heterogeneous nucleation helps the search for initial crystallization conditions of γ-glutamyl transpeptidase from Bacillus licheniformis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lin, Long-Liu; Merlino, Antonello

    2013-01-01

    An additional example in which heterogeneous nucleation has helped in the search for crystallization conditions of a protein is reported. Optimization of the crystallization conditions led to the formation of single crystals of γ-glutamyl transpeptidase from B. licheniformis that diffracted to about 3.0 Å resolution. Here, the crystallization and preliminary X-ray diffraction studies of Bacillus licheniformis γ-glutamyl transpeptidase (BlGT) are reported. The serendipitous finding of heterogeneous nucleants in the initial experiments provided the first crystallization conditions for the protein. Crystals were grown by hanging-drop vapour diffusion using a precipitant solution consisting of 20%(w/v) PEG 3350, 0.2 M magnesium chloride hexahydrate, 0.1 M Tris–HCl pH 8.2. The protein crystallized in the orthorhombic space group P2 1 2 1 2 1 , with one heterodimer per asymmetric unit and unit-cell parameters a = 60.90, b = 61.97, c = 148.24 Å. The BlGT crystals diffracted to 2.95 Å resolution

  7. High throughput nanostructure-initiator mass spectrometry screening of microbial growth conditions for maximal β-glucosidase production.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Xiaoliang; Hiras, Jennifer; Deng, Kai; Bowen, Benjamin; Simmons, Blake A; Adams, Paul D; Singer, Steven W; Northen, Trent R

    2013-01-01

    Production of biofuels via enzymatic hydrolysis of complex plant polysaccharides is a subject of intense global interest. Microbial communities are known to express a wide range of enzymes necessary for the saccharification of lignocellulosic feedstocks and serve as a powerful reservoir for enzyme discovery. However, the growth temperature and conditions that yield high cellulase activity vary widely, and the throughput to identify optimal conditions has been limited by the slow handling and conventional analysis. A rapid method that uses small volumes of isolate culture to resolve specific enzyme activity is needed. In this work, a high throughput nanostructure-initiator mass spectrometry (NIMS)-based approach was developed for screening a thermophilic cellulolytic actinomycete, Thermobispora bispora, for β-glucosidase production under various growth conditions. Media that produced high β-glucosidase activity were found to be I/S + glucose or microcrystalline cellulose (MCC), Medium 84 + rolled oats, and M9TE + MCC at 45°C. Supernatants of cell cultures grown in M9TE + 1% MCC cleaved 2.5 times more substrate at 45°C than at all other temperatures. While T. bispora is reported to grow optimally at 60°C in Medium 84 + rolled oats and M9TE + 1% MCC, approximately 40% more conversion was observed at 45°C. This high throughput NIMS approach may provide an important tool in discovery and characterization of enzymes from environmental microbes for industrial and biofuel applications.

  8. High throughput nanostructure-initiator mass spectrometry screening of microbial growth conditions for maximal β-glucosidase production

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaoliang eCheng

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Production of biofuels via enzymatic hydrolysis of complex plant polysaccharides is a subject of intense global interest. Microbial communities are known to express a wide range of enzymes necessary for the saccharification of lignocellulosic feedstocks and serve as a powerful reservoir for enzyme discovery. However, the growth temperature and conditions that yield high cellulase activity vary widely, and the throughput to identify optimal conditions has been limited by the slow handling and conventional analysis. A rapid method that uses small volumes of isolate culture to resolve specific enzyme activity is needed. In this work, a high throughput nanostructure-initiator mass spectrometry (NIMS based approach was developed for screening a thermophilic cellulolytic actinomycete, Thermobispora bispora, for β-glucosidase production under various growth conditions. Media that produced high β-glucosidase activity were found to be I/S + glucose or microcrystalline cellulose (MCC, Medium 84 + rolled oats, and M9TE + MCC at 45 °C. Supernatants of cell cultures grown in M9TE + 1% MCC cleaved 2.5 times more substrate at 45 °C than at all other temperatures. While T. bispora is reported to grow optimally at 60 °C in Medium 84 + rolled oats and M9TE + 1% MCC, approximately 40% more conversion was observed at 45 °C. This high throughput NIMS approach may provide an important tool in discovery and characterization of enzymes from environmental microbes for industrial and biofuel applications.

  9. Improvement of the prediction of fluid pressure from the results of techno-geophysical studies under complex geological conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aleksandrov, B.L.; Esipko, O.A.; Dakhkilgov, T.D.

    1981-12-01

    Results of statistical processing of the data of prediction of pore pressures in the course of well sinking, according to the material of oil field and geophysical investigations in different areas, are presented. Likewise, the errors of pressure prediction, their causes, geological models of series with anomalously high formation pressure, and methods for prediction of pore and formation pressures under different geological conditions are considered. 12 refs.

  10. Aeroheating Testing and Predictions for Project Orion CEV at Turbulent Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hollis, Brian R.; Berger, Karen T.; Horvath, Thomas J.; Coblish, Joseph J.; Norris, Joseph D.; Lillard, Randolph P.; Kirk, Benjamin S.

    2009-01-01

    An investigation of the aeroheating environment of the Project Orion Crew Exploration Vehicle was performed in the Arnold Engineering Development Center Hypervelocity Wind Tunnel No. 9 Mach 8 and Mach 10 nozzles and in the NASA Langley Research Center 20 - Inch Mach 6 Air Tunnel. Heating data were obtained using a thermocouple-instrumented approx.0.035-scale model (0.1778-m/7-inch diameter) of the flight vehicle. Runs were performed in the Tunnel 9 Mach 10 nozzle at free stream unit Reynolds numbers of 1x10(exp 6)/ft to 20x10(exp 6)/ft, in the Tunnel 9 Mach 8 nozzle at free stream unit Reynolds numbers of 8 x 10(exp 6)/ft to 48x10(exp 6)/ft, and in the 20-Inch Mach 6 Air Tunnel at free stream unit Reynolds numbers of 1x10(exp 6)/ft to 7x10(exp 6)/ft. In both facilities, enthalpy levels were low and the test gas (N2 in Tunnel 9 and air in the 20-Inch Mach 6) behaved as a perfect-gas. These test conditions produced laminar, transitional and turbulent data in the Tunnel 9 Mach 10 nozzle, transitional and turbulent data in the Tunnel 9 Mach 8 nozzle, and laminar and transitional data in the 20- Inch Mach 6 Air Tunnel. Laminar and turbulent predictions were generated for all wind tunnel test conditions and comparisons were performed with the experimental data to help define the accuracy of computational method. In general, it was found that both laminar data and predictions, and turbulent data and predictions, agreed to within less than the estimated 12% experimental uncertainty estimate. Laminar heating distributions from all three data sets were shown to correlate well and demonstrated Reynolds numbers independence when expressed in terms of the Stanton number based on adiabatic wall-recovery enthalpy. Transition onset locations on the leeside centerline were determined from the data and correlated in terms of boundary-layer parameters. Finally turbulent heating augmentation ratios were determined for several body-point locations and correlated in terms of the

  11. Robust and predictive fuzzy key performance indicators for condition-based treatment of squats in railway infrastructures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jamshidi, A.; Nunez Vicencio, Alfredo; Dollevoet, R.P.B.J.; Li, Z.

    2017-01-01

    This paper presents a condition-based treatment methodology for a type of rail surface defect called squat. The proposed methodology is based on a set of robust and predictive fuzzy key performance indicators. A fuzzy Takagi-Sugeno interval model is used to predict squat evolution for different

  12. Predictive risk factors of postoperative urinary incontinence following holmium laser enucleation of the prostate during the initial learning period

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shuichiro Kobayashi

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Purpose: To determine the predictive factors for postoperative urinary incontinence (UI following holmium laser enucleation of the prostate (HoLEP during the initial learning period. Patients and Methods: We evaluated 127 patients with benign prostatic hyperplasia who underwent HoLEP between January 2011 and December 2013. We recorded clinical variables, including blood loss, serum prostate-specific antigen levels, and the presence or absence of UI. Blood loss was estimated as a decline in postoperative hemoglobin levels. The predictive factors for postoperative UI were determined using a multivariable logistic regression analysis. Results: Postoperative UI occurred in 31 patients (24.4%, but it cured in 29 patients (93.5% after a mean duration of 12 weeks. Enucleation time >100 min (p=0.043 and blood loss >2.5g/dL (p=0.032 were identified as significant and independent risk factors for postoperative UI. Conclusions: Longer enucleation time and increased blood loss were independent predictors of postoperative UI in patients who underwent HoLEP during the initial learning period. Surgeons in training should take care to perform speedy enucleation maneuver with hemostasis.

  13. Optimization the Initial Weights of Artificial Neural Networks via Genetic Algorithm Applied to Hip Bone Fracture Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu-Tzu Chang

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to find the optimal set of initial weights to enhance the accuracy of artificial neural networks (ANNs by using genetic algorithms (GA. The sample in this study included 228 patients with first low-trauma hip fracture and 215 patients without hip fracture, both of them were interviewed with 78 questions. We used logistic regression to select 5 important factors (i.e., bone mineral density, experience of fracture, average hand grip strength, intake of coffee, and peak expiratory flow rate for building artificial neural networks to predict the probabilities of hip fractures. Three-layer (one hidden layer ANNs models with back-propagation training algorithms were adopted. The purpose in this paper is to find the optimal initial weights of neural networks via genetic algorithm to improve the predictability. Area under the ROC curve (AUC was used to assess the performance of neural networks. The study results showed the genetic algorithm obtained an AUC of 0.858±0.00493 on modeling data and 0.802 ± 0.03318 on testing data. They were slightly better than the results of our previous study (0.868±0.00387 and 0.796±0.02559, resp.. Thus, the preliminary study for only using simple GA has been proved to be effective for improving the accuracy of artificial neural networks.

  14. Diagnostic performance of initial serum albumin level for predicting in-hospital mortality among aspiration pneumonia patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Hyosun; Jo, Sion; Lee, Jae Baek; Jin, Youngho; Jeong, Taeoh; Yoon, Jaechol; Lee, Jeong Moon; Park, Boyoung

    2018-01-01

    The predictive value of serum albumin in adult aspiration pneumonia patients remains unknown. Using data collected during a 3-year retrospective cohort of hospitalized adult patients with aspiration pneumonia, we evaluated the predictive value of serum albumin level at ED presentation for in-hospital mortality. 248 Patients were enrolled; of these, 51 cases died (20.6%). The mean serum albumin level was 3.4±0.7g/dL and serum albumin levels were significantly lower in the non-survivor group than in the survivor group (3.0±0.6g/dL vs. 3.5±0.6g/dL). In the multivariable logistic regression model, albumin was associated with in-hospital mortality significantly (adjusted odds ratio 0.30, 95% confidential interval (CI) 0.16-0.57). The area under the receiver operating characteristics (AUROC) for in-hospital survival was 0.72 (95% CI 0.64-0.80). The Youden index was 3.2g/dL and corresponding sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, positive and negative likelihood ratio were 68.6%, 66.5%, 34.7%, 89.1%, 2.05 and 0.47, respectively. High sensitivity (98.0%) was shown at albumin level of 4.0g/dL and high specificity (94.9%) was shown at level of 2.5g/dL. Initial serum albumin levels were independently associated with in-hospital mortality among adult patients hospitalized with aspiration pneumonia and demonstrated fair discriminative performance in the prediction of in-hospital mortality. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Field calibration and modification of scs design equation for predicting length of border under local conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choudhary, M.R.; Mustafa, U.S.

    2009-01-01

    Field tests were conducted to calibrate the existing SCS design equation in determining field border length using field data of different field lengths during 2nd and 3rd irrigations under local conditions. A single ring infiltrometer was used to estimate the water movement into and through the irrigated soil profile and in estimating the coefficients of Kostiakov infiltration function. Measurements of the unit discharge and time of advance were carried out during different irrigations on wheat irrigated fields having clay loam soil. The collected field data were used to calibrate the existing SCS design equation developed by USDA for testing its validity under local field conditions. SCS equation was modified further to improve its applicability. Results from the study revealed that the Kostiakov model over predicted the coefficients, which in turn overestimated the water advance length for boarder in the selected field using existing SCS design equation. However, the calibrated SCS design equation after parametric modification produced more satisfactory results encouraging the scientists to make its use at larger scale. (author)

  16. Lean mass predicts conditioned pain modulation in adolescents across weight status.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stolzman, S; Hoeger Bement, M

    2016-07-01

    There is a wide continuum of conditioned pain modulation (CPM) in adults with older adults experiencing an attenuated CPM response compared with younger adults. Less is known for adolescents and the role of anthropometrics. Fifty-six adolescents (15.1 ± 1.8 years; 32 normal weight and 24 overweight/obese; 27 boys) completed in a CPM session that included anthropometric testing. Pressure pain thresholds were measured at the nailbed and deltoid muscle (test stimuli) with the foot submerged in a cool or ice water bath (conditioning stimulus). Weight status, body composition (Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry scan), physical activity levels and clinical pain were also evaluated. The CPM response in adolescents was similar across sites (nailbed vs. deltoid), weight status (normal vs. overweight/obese) and sex. CPM measured at the deltoid muscle was positively associated with left arm lean mass but not fat mass; lean mass of the arm uniquely predicted 10% of the CPM magnitude. CPM measured at the nailbed was positively correlated with physical activity levels. These results suggest that lean mass and physical activity levels may contribute to endogenous pain inhibition in adolescents across weight status. © 2016 European Pain Federation - EFIC®

  17. Predicting the solubility of gases in Nitrile Butadiene Rubber in extreme conditions using molecular simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khawaja, Musab; Molinari, Nicola; Sutton, Adrian; Mostofi, Arash

    In the oil and gas industry, elastomer seals play an important role in protecting sensitive monitoring equipment from contamination by gases - a problem that is exacerbated by the high pressures and temperatures found down-hole. The ability to predict and prevent such permeative failure has proved elusive to-date. Nitrile butadiene rubber (NBR) is a common choice of elastomer for seals due to its resistance to heat and fuels. In the conditions found in the well it readily absorbs small molecular weight gases. How this behaviour changes quantitatively for different gases as a function of temperature and pressure is not well-understood. In this work a series of fully atomistic simulations are performed to understand the effect of extreme conditions on gas solubility in NBR. Widom particle insertion is used to compute solubilities. The importance of sampling and allowing structural relaxation upon compression are highlighted, and qualitatively reasonable trends reproduced. Finally, while at STP it has previously been shown that the solubility of CO2 is higher than that of He in NBR, we observe that under the right circumstances it is possible to reverse this trend.

  18. Prediction of flow recirculation in a blanket assembly under worst-case natural-convection conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khan, E.U.; Rector, D.R.

    1982-01-01

    Reactor fuel and blanket assemblies within a Liquid Metal Fast Breeder Reactor (LMFBR) can be subjected to severe radial heat flux gradients. At low-flow conditions, with power-to-flow ratios of nearly the same magnitude as design conditions, buoyancy forces cause flow redistribution to the side of a bundle with the higher heat generation rate. Recirculation of fluid within a rod bundle can occur during a natural convection transient because of the combined effect of flow coastdown and buoyancy-induced redistribution. An important concern is whether recirculation leads to high coolant temperatures. For this reason, the COBRA-WC code was developed with the capability of modeling recirculating flows. Experiments have been conducted in a 2 x 6 rod bundle for flow and power transients to study recirculation in the mixed-convection (forced cooled) and natural-convection regimes. The data base developed was used to validate the recirculation module in the COBRA-WC code. COBRA-WC code calculations were made to predict flow and temperature distributions in a typical LMFBR blanket assembly for the worst-case, natural-circulation transient

  19. Ignition condition and gain prediction for perturbed inertial confinement fusion targets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kishony, Roy; Shvarts, Dov

    2001-01-01

    The effect of perturbations on hot spot ignition is studied using full two-dimensional (2D) numerical simulations of the National Ignition Facility [J. D. Lindl, Phys. Plasmas 2, 3933 (1995)] direct drive Laboratory for Laser Energetics target design and newly derived 2D self-similar solutions for a perturbed burn wave propagation. It is shown that the required implosion velocity needed for ignition increases with the perturbation mode number and final amplitude, reaching an asymptotic value for high enough perturbation mode numbers, when the entire mixing zone no longer contributes to the ignition of the hot spot. Using the new self-similar solutions, ignition conditions for various perturbation mode numbers and amplitudes are obtained. These ignition conditions, which correspond to areal densities higher than needed for ignition in the symmetric case, are translated to a required increase in the implosion velocity needed for ignition, using the 1D Levendahl-Lindl scaling, in good agreement with the full 2D numerical simulation results. Finally, using the above results, a model for predicting the gain of a perturbed targets as a function of the perturbation spectra (single-mode and multi-mode) is presented, in good agreement with full numerical simulations

  20. Path integral for stochastic inflation: Nonperturbative volume weighting, complex histories, initial conditions, and the end of inflation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gratton, Steven

    2011-09-01

    In this paper we present a path integral formulation of stochastic inflation. Volume weighting can be naturally implemented from this new perspective in a very straightforward way when compared to conventional Langevin approaches. With an in-depth study of inflation in a quartic potential, we investigate how the inflaton evolves and how inflation typically ends both with and without volume weighting. The calculation can be carried to times beyond those accessible to conventional Fokker-Planck approaches. Perhaps unexpectedly, complex histories sometimes emerge with volume weighting. The reward for this excursion into the complex plane is an insight into how volume-weighted inflation both loses memory of initial conditions and ends via slow roll. The slow-roll end of inflation mitigates certain “Youngness Paradox”-type criticisms of the volume-weighted paradigm. Thus it is perhaps time to rehabilitate proper-time volume weighting as a viable measure for answering at least some interesting cosmological questions.

  1. Path integral for stochastic inflation: Nonperturbative volume weighting, complex histories, initial conditions, and the end of inflation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gratton, Steven

    2011-01-01

    In this paper we present a path integral formulation of stochastic inflation. Volume weighting can be naturally implemented from this new perspective in a very straightforward way when compared to conventional Langevin approaches. With an in-depth study of inflation in a quartic potential, we investigate how the inflaton evolves and how inflation typically ends both with and without volume weighting. The calculation can be carried to times beyond those accessible to conventional Fokker-Planck approaches. Perhaps unexpectedly, complex histories sometimes emerge with volume weighting. The reward for this excursion into the complex plane is an insight into how volume-weighted inflation both loses memory of initial conditions and ends via slow roll. The slow-roll end of inflation mitigates certain ''Youngness Paradox''-type criticisms of the volume-weighted paradigm. Thus it is perhaps time to rehabilitate proper-time volume weighting as a viable measure for answering at least some interesting cosmological questions.

  2. Impact of atmospheric release in stable night meteorological conditions; can emergency models predict dispersion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Connan, O.; Hebert, D.; Solier, L.; Voiseux, C.; Lamotte, M.; Laguionie, P.; Maro, D.; Thomas, L. [IRSN/PRP-ENV/SERIS/LRC (France)

    2014-07-01

    Atmospheric dispersion of pollutant or radionuclides in stratified meteorological condition, i.e. especially when weather conditions are very stable, mainly at night, is still poorly understood and not well apprehended by the operational atmospheric dispersion models. However, correctly predicting the dispersion of a radioactive plume, and estimating the radiological consequences for the population, following an unplanned atmospheric release of radionuclides are crucial steps in an emergency response. To better understand dispersion in these special weather conditions, IRSN performed a series of 22 air sampling campaigns between 2010 and 2013 in the vicinity of the La Hague nuclear reprocessing plant (AREVA - NC, France), at distances between 200 m and 3000 m from the facility. Krypton-85 ({sup 85}Kr), a b-and g-emitting radionuclide, released during the reprocessing of spent nuclear fuel was used as a non-reactive tracer of radioactive plumes. Experimental campaigns were realized in stability class stable or very stable (E or F according to Pasquill classification) 18 times, and in neutral conditions (D according to Pasquill classification) 4 times. During each campaign, Krypton-85 real time measurement were made to find the plume around the plant, and then integrated samples (30 min) were collected in bag perpendicularly to the assumed wind direction axis. After measurement by gamma spectrometry, we have, when it was possible, estimate the point of impact and the width of the plume. The objective was to estimate the horizontal dispersion (width) of the plume at ground level in function of the distance and be able to calculate atmospheric transfer coefficients. In a second step, objective was to conclude on the use of common model and on their uncertainties. The results will be presented in terms of impact on the near-field. They will be compared with data obtained in previous years in neutral atmospheric conditions, and finally the results will be confronted with

  3. Tool life prediction under multi-cycle loading conditions: A feasibility study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuan Xi

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In the present research, the friction and wear behaviour of a hard coating were studied by using ball-on-disc tests to simulate the wear process of the coated tools for sheet metal forming process. The evolution of the friction coefficient followed a typical dual-plateau pattern, i.e. at the initial stage of sliding, the friction coefficient was relatively low, followed by a sharp increase due to the breakdown of the coatings after a certain number of cyclic dynamic loadings. This phenomenon was caused by the interactive response between the friction and wear from a coating tribo-system, which has not been addressed so far by metal forming researchers, and constant friction coefficient values are normally used in the FE simulations to represent the complex tribological nature at the contact interfaces. Meanwhile, most of the current FE simulations are single cycle, whereas most sheet metal forming operations are conducted as multi-cycle. Therefore, a novel friction/wear interactive friction model was developed to, simultaneously, characterise the evolutions of friction coefficient and the remaining thickness of the coating layer, to enable the wear life of coated tooling to be predicted. The friction model was then implemented into the FE simulation of a sheet metal forming process for feasibility study.

  4. H I versus H α - comparing the kinematic tracers in modelling the initial conditions of the Mice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mortazavi, S. Alireza; Lotz, Jennifer M.; Barnes, Joshua E.; Privon, George C.; Snyder, Gregory F.

    2018-03-01

    We explore the effect of using different kinematic tracers (H I and H α) on reconstructing the encounter parameters of the Mice major galaxy merger (NGC 4676A/B). We observed the Mice using the SparsePak Integral Field Unit (IFU) on the WIYN telescope, and compared the H α velocity map with VLA H I observations. The relatively high spectral resolution of our data (R ≈ 5000) allows us to resolve more than one kinematic component in the emission lines of some fibres. We separate the H α-[N II] emission of the star-forming regions from shocks using their [N II]/H α line ratio and velocity dispersion. We show that the velocity of star-forming regions agree with that of the cold gas (H I), particularly, in the tidal tails of the system. We reconstruct the morphology and kinematics of these tidal tails utilizing an automated modelling method based on the IDENTIKIT software package. We quantify the goodness of fit and the uncertainties of the derived encounter parameters. Most of the initial conditions reconstructed using H α and H I are consistent with each other, and qualitatively agree with the results of previous works. For example, we find 210± ^{50}_{40} Myr, and 180± ^{50}_{40} Myr for the time since pericentre, when modelling H α and H I kinematics, respectively. This confirms that in some cases, H α kinematics can be used instead of H I kinematics for reconstructing the initial conditions of galaxy mergers, and our automated modelling method is applicable to some merging systems.

  5. Multidimensional Quantum Mechanical Modeling of Electron Transfer and Electronic Coherence in Plant Cryptochromes: The Role of Initial Bath Conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mendive-Tapia, David; Mangaud, Etienne; Firmino, Thiago; de la Lande, Aurélien; Desouter-Lecomte, Michèle; Meyer, Hans-Dieter; Gatti, Fabien

    2018-01-11

    A multidimensional quantum mechanical protocol is used to describe the photoinduced electron transfer and electronic coherence in plant cryptochromes without any semiempirical, e.g., experimentally obtained, parameters. Starting from a two-level spin-boson Hamiltonian we look at the effect that the initial photoinduced nuclear bath distribution has on an intermediate step of this biological electron transfer cascade for two idealized cases. The first assumes a slow equilibration of the nuclear bath with respect to the previous electron transfer step that leads to an ultrafast decay with little temperature dependence; while the second assumes a prior fast bath equilibration on the donor potential energy surface leading to a much slower decay, which contrarily displays a high temperature dependence and a better agreement with previous theoretical and experimental results. Beyond Marcus and semiclassical pictures these results unravel the strong impact that the presence or not of equilibrium initial conditions has on the electronic population and coherence dynamics at the quantum dynamics level in this and conceivably in other biological electron transfer cascades.

  6. Predicting temperature and moisture distributions in conditioned spaces using the zonal approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mendonca, K.C. [Parana Pontifical Catholic Univ., Curitiba (Brazil); Wurtz, E.; Inard, C. [La Rochelle Univ., La Rochelle, Cedex (France). LEPTAB

    2005-07-01

    Moisture interacts with building elements in a number of different ways that impact upon building performance, causing deterioration of building materials, as well as contributing to poor indoor air quality. In humid climates, moisture represents one of the major loads in conditioned spaces. It is therefore important to understand and model moisture transport accurately. This paper discussed an intermediate zonal approach to building a library of data in order to predict whole hygrothermal behavior in conditioned rooms. The zonal library included 2 models in order to consider building envelope moisture buffering effects as well as taking into account the dynamic aspect of jet airflow in the zonal method. The zonal library was then applied to a case study to show the impact of external humidity on the whole hygrothermal performance of a room equipped with a vertical fan-coil unit. The proposed theory was structured into 3 groups representing 3 building domains: indoor air; envelope; and heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) systems. The indoor air sub-model related to indoor air space, where airflow speed was considered to be low. The envelope sub-model related to the radiation exchanges between the envelope and its environment as well as to the heat and mass transfers through the envelope material. The HVAC system sub-model referred to the whole system including equipment, control and specific airflow from the equipment. All the models were coupled into SPARK, where the resulting set of non-linear equations were solved simultaneously. A case study of a large office conditioned by a vertical fan-coil unit with a rectangular air supply diffuser was presented. Details of the building's external and internal environment were provided, as well as convective heat and mass transfer coefficients and temperature distributions versus time. Results of the study indicated that understanding building material moisture buffering effects is as important as

  7. A case study of remaining storage life prediction using stochastic filtering with the influence of condition monitoring

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Zhaoqiang; Hu, Changhua; Wang, Wenbin; Zhou, Zhijie; Si, Xiaosheng

    2014-01-01

    Some systems may spend most of their time in storage, but once needed, must be fully functional. Slow degradation occurs when the system is in storage, so to ensure the functionality of these systems, condition monitoring is usually conducted periodically to check the condition of the system. However, taking the condition monitoring data may require putting the system under real testing situation which may accelerate the degradation, and therefore, shorten the storage life of the system. This paper presents a case study of condition-based remaining storage life prediction for gyros in the inertial navigation system on the basis of the condition monitoring data and the influence of the condition monitoring data taking process. A stochastic-filtering-based degradation model is developed to incorporate both into the prediction of the remaining storage life distribution. This makes the predicted remaining storage life depend on not only the condition monitoring data but also the testing process of taking the condition monitoring data, which the existing prognostic techniques and algorithms did not consider. The presented model is fitted to the real condition monitoring data of gyros testing using the maximum likelihood estimation method for parameter estimation. Comparisons are made with the model without considering the process of taking the condition monitoring data, and the results clearly demonstrate the superiority of the newly proposed model

  8. A hybrid measure-correlate-predict method for long-term wind condition assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Jie; Chowdhury, Souma; Messac, Achille; Hodge, Bri-Mathias

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • A hybrid measure-correlate-predict (MCP) methodology with greater accuracy is developed. • Three sets of performance metrics are proposed to evaluate the hybrid MCP method. • Both wind speed and direction are considered in the hybrid MCP method. • The best combination of MCP algorithms is determined. • The developed hybrid MCP method is uniquely helpful for long-term wind resource assessment. - Abstract: This paper develops a hybrid measure-correlate-predict (MCP) strategy to assess long-term wind resource variations at a farm site. The hybrid MCP method uses recorded data from multiple reference stations to estimate long-term wind conditions at a target wind plant site with greater accuracy than is possible with data from a single reference station. The weight of each reference station in the hybrid strategy is determined by the (i) distance and (ii) elevation differences between the target farm site and each reference station. In this case, the wind data is divided into sectors according to the wind direction, and the MCP strategy is implemented for each wind direction sector separately. The applicability of the proposed hybrid strategy is investigated using five MCP methods: (i) the linear regression; (ii) the variance ratio; (iii) the Weibull scale; (iv) the artificial neural networks; and (v) the support vector regression. To implement the hybrid MCP methodology, we use hourly averaged wind data recorded at five stations in the state of Minnesota between 07-01-1996 and 06-30-2004. Three sets of performance metrics are used to evaluate the hybrid MCP method. The first set of metrics analyze the statistical performance, including the mean wind speed, wind speed variance, root mean square error, and mean absolute error. The second set of metrics evaluate the distribution of long-term wind speed; to this end, the Weibull distribution and the Multivariate and Multimodal Wind Distribution models are adopted. The third set of metrics analyze

  9. Development of the BWR Dry Core Initial and Boundary Conditions for the SNL XR2 Experiments; TOPICAL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ott, L.J.

    1994-01-01

    The objectives of the Boiling Water Reactor Experimental Analysis and Model Development for Severe Accidents (BEAMD) Program at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) are: (1) the development of a sound quantitative understanding of boiling water reactor (BWR) core melt progression; this includes control blade and channel box effects, metallic melt relocation and possible blockage formation under severe accident conditions, and (2) provision of BWR melt progression modeling capabilities in SCDAP/RELAP5 (consistent with the BWR experimental data base). This requires the assessment of current modeling of BWR core melt progression against the expanding BWR data base. Emphasis is placed upon data from the BWR tests in the German CORA test facility and from the ex-reactor experiments[Sandia National Laboratories (SNL)] on metallic melt relocation and blockage formation in BWRs, as well as upon in-reactor data from the Annular Core Research Reactor (ACRR) DF-4 BWR test (conducted in 1986 at SNL). The BEAMD Program is a derivative of the BWR Severe Accident Technology Programs at ORNL. The ORNL BWR programs have studied postulated severe accidents in BWRs and have developed a set of models specific to boiling water reactor response under severe accident conditions. These models, in an experiment-specific format, have been successfully applied to both pretest and posttest analyses of the DF-4 experiment, and the BWR severe fuel damage (SFD) experiments performed in the CORA facility at the Kernforschungszentrum Karlsruhe (KfK) in Germany, resulting in excellent agreement between model prediction and experiment. The ORNL BWR models have provided for more precise predictions of the conditions in the BWR experiments than were previously available. This has provided a basis for more accurate interpretation of the phenomena for which the experiments are performed. The experiment-specific models, as used in the ORNL DF-4 and CORA BWR experimental analyses, also provide a basis

  10. Initiation of soil formation in weathered sulfidic Cu-Pb-Zn tailings under subtropical and semi-arid climatic conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    You, Fang; Dalal, Ram; Huang, Longbin

    2018-08-01

    Field evidence has been scarce about soil (or technosol) formation and direct phytostabilization of base metal mine tailings under field conditions. The present study evaluated key attributes of soil formation in weathered and neutral Cu-Pb-Zn tailings subject to organic amendment (WC: woodchips) and colonization of pioneer native plant species (mixed native woody and grass plant species) in a 2.5-year field trial under subtropical and semi-arid climatic conditions. Key soil indicators of engineered soil formation process were characterized, including organic carbon fractions, aggregation, microbial community and key enzymatic activities. The majority (64-87%) of the OC was stabilized in microaggregate or organo-mineral complexes in the amended tailings. The levels of OC and water soluble OC were elevated by 2-3 folds across the treatments, with the highest level in the treatment of WC and plant colonization (WC+P). Specifically, the WC+P treatment increased the proportion of water stable macroaggregates. Plants further contributed to the N rich organic matter in the tailings, favouring organo-mineral interactions and organic stabilization. Besides, the plants played a major role in boosting microbial biomass and activities in the treated tailings. WC and plants enhanced the contents of organic carbon (OC) associated with aggregates (e.g., physically protected OC), formation of water-stable aggregates (e.g., micro and macroaggregates), chemical buffering capacity (e.g., cation exchange capacity). Microbial community and enzymatic activities were also stimulated in the amended tailings. The present results showed that the formation of functional technosol was initiated in the eco-engineered and weathered Cu-Pb-Zn tailings under field conditions for direct phytostabilization. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Predicting Downward Longwave Radiation for Various Land Use in All-Sky Condition: Northeast Florida

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chi-Han Cheng

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Accurate estimate of the surface longwave radiation is important for the surface radiation budget, which in turn controls evaporation and sensible heat fluxes. Regional land use changes can impact local weather conditions; for example, heterogeneous land use patterns and temporal changes in atmospheric circulation patterns would affect air temperature and water vapor pressure, which are more commonly used as inputs in existing models for estimating downward longwave radiation (LWd. In this study, first, we analyzed the cloud cover and land use covers impacts on LWd. Next, LWd on all-sky conditions were developed by using the existing land use-adapted model and cloud cover data from the region of Saint Johns River Water Management District (SJRWMD, FL. The results show that factors, such as, seasonal effects, cloud cover, and land use, are of importance in the estimation of LWd and they cannot be ignored when developing a model for LWd prediction. The all-sky land use-adapted model with all factors taken into account performs better than other existing models statistically. The results of the statistical analyses indicated that the BIAS, RMSE, MAE, and PMRE are −0.18 Wm−2, 10.81 Wm−2, 8.00 Wm−2, and 2.30%; −2.61 Wm−2, 14.45 Wm−2, 10.64 Wm−2, and 3.19%; −0.07 Wm−2, 10.53 Wm−2, 8.03 Wm−2, and 2.27%; and −0.62 Wm−2, 13.97 Wm−2, 9.76 Wm−2, and 2.87% for urban, rangeland, agricultural, and wetland areas, respectively.

  12. Multistressor predictive models of invertebrate condition in the Corn Belt, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waite, Ian R.; Van Metre, Peter C.

    2017-01-01

    Understanding the complex relations between multiple environmental stressors and ecological conditions in streams can help guide resource-management decisions. During 14 weeks in spring/summer 2013, personnel from the US Geological Survey and the US Environmental Protection Agency sampled 98 wadeable streams across the Midwest Corn Belt region of the USA for water and sediment quality, physical and habitat characteristics, and ecological communities. We used these data to develop independent predictive disturbance models for 3 macroinvertebrate metrics and a multimetric index. We developed the models based on boosted regression trees (BRT) for 3 stressor categories, land use/land cover (geographic information system [GIS]), all in-stream stressors combined (nutrients, habitat, and contaminants), and for GIS plus in-stream stressors. The GIS plus in-stream stressor models had the best overall performance with an average cross-validation R2 across all models of 0.41. The models were generally consistent in the explanatory variables selected within each stressor group across the 4 invertebrate metrics modeled. Variables related to riparian condition, substrate size or embeddedness, velocity and channel shape, nutrients (primarily NH3), and contaminants (pyrethroid degradates) were important descriptors of the invertebrate metrics. Models based on all measured in-stream stressors performed comparably to models based on GIS landscape variables, suggesting that the in-stream stressor characterization reasonably represents the dominant factors affecting invertebrate communities and that GIS variables are acting as surrogates for in-stream stressors that directly affect in-stream biota.

  13. Allocentric spatial memory testing predicts conversion from mild cognitive impairment to dementia: an initial proof-of-concept study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruth A Wood

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The hippocampus is one of the first regions to exhibit neurodegeneration in Alzheimer’s disease (AD and knowledge of its role in allocentric spatial memory may therefore aid early diagnosis of AD. The 4 Mountains Test (4MT is a short and easily administered test of spatial memory based on the cognitive map theory of hippocampal function as derived from rodent single cell and behavioral studies. The 4MT has been shown in previous cross-sectional studies to be sensitive and specific for mild cognitive impairment due to AD. This report describes the initial results of a longitudinal study testing the hypothesis that allocentric spatial memory is predictive of conversion from mild cognitive impairment to dementia.Fifteen patients with mild cognitive impairment underwent baseline testing on the 4MT in addition to CSF amyloid/tau biomarker studies, volumetric MRI and neuropsychological assessment including the Rey Auditory Verbal Learning Test (RAVLT and Trail Making Test B (TMT-B. At 24 months, 9/15 patients had converted to AD dementia. The 4MT predicted conversion to AD with 93% accuracy (Cohen’s d = 2.52. The predictive accuracies of the comparator measures were as follows: CSF tau/β-amyloid1-42 ratio 92% (d = 1.81, RAVLT 64% (d = 0.41, TMT-B 78% (d = 1.56, and hippocampal volume 77% (d = 0.65. CSF tau levels were strongly negative correlated with 4MT scores (r = -0.71. This proof-of-concept study provides initial support for the hypothesis that allocentric spatial memory testing is a predictive cognitive marker of hippocampal neurodegeneration in pre-dementia AD. The 4MT is a brief, noninvasive, straightforward spatial memory test and is therefore ideally suited for use in routine clinical diagnostic practice. This is of particular importance given the current unmet need for simple accurate diagnostic tests for early AD and the ongoing development of potential disease-modifying therapeutic agents which may be more efficacious when given

  14. Allocentric Spatial Memory Testing Predicts Conversion from Mild Cognitive Impairment to Dementia: An Initial Proof-of-Concept Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Ruth A; Moodley, Kuven K; Lever, Colin; Minati, Ludovico; Chan, Dennis

    2016-01-01

    The hippocampus is one of the first regions to exhibit neurodegeneration in Alzheimer's disease (AD), and knowledge of its role in allocentric spatial memory may therefore aid early diagnosis of AD. The 4 Mountains Test (4MT) is a short and easily administered test of spatial memory based on the cognitive map theory of hippocampal function as derived from rodent single cell and behavioral studies. The 4MT has been shown in previous cross-sectional studies to be sensitive and specific for mild cognitive impairment (MCI) due to AD. This report describes the initial results of a longitudinal study testing the hypothesis that allocentric spatial memory is predictive of conversion from MCI to dementia. Fifteen patients with MCI underwent baseline testing on the 4MT in addition to CSF amyloid/tau biomarker studies, volumetric MRI and neuropsychological assessment including the Rey Auditory Verbal Learning Test (RAVLT) and Trail Making Test "B" (TMT-B). At 24 months, 9/15 patients had converted to AD dementia. The 4MT predicted conversion to AD with 93% accuracy (Cohen's d  = 2.52). The predictive accuracies of the comparator measures were as follows: CSF tau/β-amyloid 1-42 ratio 92% ( d  = 1.81), RAVLT 64% ( d  = 0.41), TMT-B 78% ( d  = 1.56), and hippocampal volume 77% ( d  = 0.65). CSF tau levels were strongly negatively correlated with 4MT scores ( r  = -0.71). This proof-of-concept study provides initial support for the hypothesis that allocentric spatial memory testing is a predictive cognitive marker of hippocampal neurodegeneration in pre-dementia AD. The 4MT is a brief, non-invasive, straightforward spatial memory test and is therefore ideally suited for use in routine clinical diagnostic practice. This is of particular importance given the current unmet need for simple accurate diagnostic tests for early AD and the ongoing development of potential disease-modifying therapeutic agents, which may be more efficacious when given earlier in

  15. Uncertainties in predicting rice yield by current crop models under a wide range of climatic conditions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Li, T.; Hasegawa, T.; Yin, X.; Zhu, Y.; Boote, K.; Adam, M.; Bregaglio, S.; Buis, S.; Confalonieri, R.; Fumoto, T.; Gaydon, D.; Marcaida III, M.; Nakagawa, H.; Oriol, P.; Ruane, A.C.; Ruget, F.; Singh, B.; Singh, U.; Tang, L.; Yoshida, H.; Zhang, Z.; Bouman, B.

    2015-01-01

    Predicting rice (Oryza sativa) productivity under future climates is important for global food security. Ecophysiological crop models in combination with climate model outputs are commonly used in yield prediction, but uncertainties associated with crop models remain largely unquantified. We

  16. Effect of soil conditions on predicted ground motion: Case study from Western Anatolia, Turkey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gok, Elcin; Chávez-García, Francisco J.; Polat, Orhan

    2014-04-01

    We present a site effect study for the city of Izmir, Western Anatolia, Turkey. Local amplification was evaluated using state-of-practice tools. Ten earthquakes recorded at 16 sites were analysed using spectral ratios relative to a reference site, horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratios, and an inversion scheme of the Fourier amplitude spectra of the recorded S-waves. Seismic noise records were also used to estimate site effects. The different estimates are in good agreement among them, although a basic uncertainty of a factor of 2 seems difficult to decrease. We used our site effect estimates to predict ground motion in Izmir for a possible M6.5 earthquake close to the city using stochastic modelling. Site effects have a large impact on PSV (pseudospectral velocity), where local amplification increases amplitudes by almost a factor of 9 at 1 Hz relative to the firm ground condition. Our results allow identifying the neighbourhoods of Izmir where hazard mitigation measurements are a priority task and will also be useful for planning urban development.

  17. Impact of Economic Conditions and Crises on Mortality and its Predictability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bohk, Christina; Rau, Roland

    To investigate how economic conditions and crises affect mortality and its predictability in industrialized countries, we review the related literature, and we forecast mortality developments in Spain, Hungary, and Russia-three countries which have recently undergone major transformation processes following the introduction of radical economic and political reforms. The results of our retrospective mortality forecasts from 1991 to 2009 suggest that our model can capture major changes in long-term mortality trends, and that the forecast errors it generates are usually smaller than those of other well-accepted models, like the Lee-Carter model and its coherent variant. This is because our approach is capable of modeling (1) dynamic shifts in survival improvements from younger to older ages over time, as well as (2) substantial changes in long-term trends by optionally complementing the extrapolated mortality trends in a country of interest with those of selected reference countries. However, the forecasting performance of our model is limited (like that of every model): e.g., if mortality becomes extremely volatile-as was the case in Russia after the dissolution of the Soviet Union-generating a precise forecast will depend more on luck than on methodology and expert judgment. In general, we conclude that, on their own, recent economic changes appear to have minor effects on life expectancy in industrialized countries, but that the effects of these changes are greater if they occur in conjunction with other major social and political changes.

  18. Experimental study of tyre/road contact forces in rolling conditions for noise prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cesbron, Julien; Anfosso-Lédée, Fabienne; Duhamel, Denis; Ping Yin, Hai; Le Houédec, Donatien

    2009-02-01

    This paper deals with the experimental study of dynamical tyre/road contact for noise prediction. In situ measurements of contact forces and close proximity noise levels were carried out for a slick tyre rolling on six different road surfaces between 30 and 50 km/h. Additional texture profiles of the tested surfaces were taken on the wheel track. Normal contact stresses were measured at a sampling frequency of 10752 Hz using a line of pressure sensitive cells placed both along and perpendicular to the rolling direction. The contact areas obtained during rolling were smaller than in static conditions. This is mainly explained by the dynamical properties of tyre compounds, like the viscoelastic behaviour of the rubber. Additionally the root-mean-square of the resultant contact forces at various speeds was in the same order for a given road surface, while their spectra were quite different. This is certainly due to a spectral influence of bending waves propagating in the tyre during rolling, especially when the wavelength is small in comparison with the size of the contact patch. Finally, the levels of contact forces and close proximity noise measured at 30 km/h were correlated. Additional correlations with texture levels were performed. The results show that the macro-texture generates contact forces linearly around 800 Hz and consequently noise levels between 500 and 1000 Hz via the vibrations transmitted to the tyre.

  19. Models for Predicting Boundary Conditions in L-Mode Tokamak Plasma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Siriwitpreecha, A.; Onjun, T.; Suwanna, S.; Poolyarat, N.; Picha, R.

    2009-07-01

    Full text: The models for predicting temperature and density of ions and electrons at boundary conditions in L-mode tokamak plasma are developed using an empirical approach and optimized against the experimental data obtained from the latest public version of the International Pedestal Database (version 3.2). It is assumed that the temperature and density at boundary of L-mode plasma are functions of engineering parameters such as plasma current, toroidal magnetic field, total heating power, line averaged density, hydrogenic particle mass (A H ), major radius, minor radius, and elongation at the separatrix. Multiple regression analysis is carried out for these parameters with 86 data points in L-mode from Aug (61) and JT60U (25). The RMSE of temperature and density at boundary of L-mode plasma are found to be 24.41% and 18.81%, respectively. These boundary models are implemented in BALDUR code, which will be used to simulate the L-mode plasma in the tokamak

  20. The prediction of the-circumferential fuel-temperature distribution under ballonian condition. Vol. 3

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abdallah, A M; El-Sherbiny, E M [Reactor Department, Nuclear Research Center, Atomic Energy Authority, Cairo (Egypt)

    1996-03-01

    Swelling and thermal distortion of nuclear fuel elements due to depressurization of reactor coolant may cause contracts in points or finite regions between adjacent fuel elements in square and triangle lattices. This is very probable in Advanced Pressurized Water Reactors where the clearance between fuel elements is about 1 mm. This results in partial blocking of the coolant flow and formation of hot spots in the contact regions. In these regions, absence of coolant results in nonuniform clad circumferential temperature distribution. This causes excessive thermal stresses which may produce local melting or clad failure. An accurate prediction of the clad circumferential temperature distribution during these severe incidents is very important. This problem was studied numerically during transient and steady state conditions. Recently, a semi analytical solution for the underlying problem was derived assuming the heat transfer coefficient to vary linearly with the circumferential distance measured from the cusp point, and the heat flux at the fuel-clad interface to be a constant quantity. In the present work, an approximate analytic solution is obtained. The accuracy is tested by solving the problem numerically. Also the problem is reanalyzed by considering the heat flux at the fuel-clad interface to be a power function of the angular distance along the clad surface. Moreover, the heat transfer coefficient is assumed to be a function of both the circumferential coordinate and temperature of the clad. Discussion of the analytical solution and the assumptions are rationalized in the text. 4 figs.

  1. Predicting Recurrence and Progression of Noninvasive Papillary Bladder Cancer at Initial Presentation Based on Quantitative Gene Expression Profiles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Birkhahn, M.; Mitra, A.P.; Williams, Johan

    2010-01-01

    Background: Currently, tumor grade is the best predictor of outcome at first presentation of noninvasive papillary (Ta) bladder cancer. However, reliable predictors of Ta tumor recurrence and progression for individual patients, which could optimize treatment and follow-up schedules based...... on specific tumor biology, are yet to be identified. Objective: To identify genes predictive for recurrence and progression in Ta bladder cancer at first presentation using a quantitative, pathway-specific approach. Design, setting, and participants: Retrospective study of patients with Ta G2/3 bladder tumors...... at initial presentation with three distinct clinical outcomes: absence of recurrence (n = 16), recurrence without progression (n = 16), and progression to carcinoma in situ or invasive disease (n = 16). Measurements: Expressions of 24 genes that feature in relevant pathways that are deregulated in bladder...

  2. Constraints on the initial conditions of stellar formation from ISOCAM observations of dense cores seen in absorption

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bacmann, Aurore

    1999-01-01

    Stars form in molecular clouds by gravitational collapse of small condensations called pre-stellar cores. This stage of the star formation process is still relatively unknown since these dense cores are deeply embedded within a thick cocoon of matter. The collapse, as well as the accretion phase depend on the structure of these objects. In order to constrain the initial conditions of star formation. We have carried out a study of the density structure of a vast sample of pre-stellar cores that we observed with the mid-infrared camera ISOCAM aboard the ISO satellite. As the cores are very dense and cold, they are seen in absorption against the diffuse mid-infrared background. This absorption method is highly interesting for our study since it is sensitive to the density structure in the outer parts of the cores. The study of these cores enabled us to confirm the presence of a flattening in their central parts, to show that their column density profiles were composed of a portion close to a NH_2 ∝ r"-"1 power-law, and that some of them presented an edge, i.e. that the slope in the outer parts of the profiles became steeper than NH_2 ∝ r"-"2. An implication of the presence of an edge is that the mass reservoir available for star formation in these cores is finite, supporting the idea that the stellar initial mass function is partly determined at a pre-stellar stage. Comparison of our results with various models of core structure shows that the column density profiles we obtained are consistent with ambipolar diffusion models of magnetically supported cores, although they require a strong background magnetic field which has up to now not been observed in these kinds of regions. (author) [fr

  3. Optimization of condition-based asset management using a predictive health model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bajracharya, G.; Koltunowicz, T.; Negenborn, R.R.; Papp, Z.; Djairam, D.; De Schutter, B.; Smit, J.J.

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, a model predictive framework is used to optimize the operation and maintenance actions of power system equipment based on the predicted health sate of this equipment. In particular, this framework is used to predict the health state of transformers based on their usage. The health

  4. Accurate First-Principles Spectra Predictions for Planetological and Astrophysical Applications at Various T-Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rey, M.; Nikitin, A. V.; Tyuterev, V.

    2014-06-01

    Knowledge of near infrared intensities of rovibrational transitions of polyatomic molecules is essential for the modeling of various planetary atmospheres, brown dwarfs and for other astrophysical applications 1,2,3. For example, to analyze exoplanets, atmospheric models have been developed, thus making the need to provide accurate spectroscopic data. Consequently, the spectral characterization of such planetary objects relies on the necessity of having adequate and reliable molecular data in extreme conditions (temperature, optical path length, pressure). On the other hand, in the modeling of astrophysical opacities, millions of lines are generally involved and the line-by-line extraction is clearly not feasible in laboratory measurements. It is thus suggested that this large amount of data could be interpreted only by reliable theoretical predictions. There exists essentially two theoretical approaches for the computation and prediction of spectra. The first one is based on empirically-fitted effective spectroscopic models. Another way for computing energies, line positions and intensities is based on global variational calculations using ab initio surfaces. They do not yet reach the spectroscopic accuracy stricto sensu but implicitly account for all intramolecular interactions including resonance couplings in a wide spectral range. The final aim of this work is to provide reliable predictions which could be quantitatively accurate with respect to the precision of available observations and as complete as possible. All this thus requires extensive first-principles quantum mechanical calculations essentially based on three necessary ingredients which are (i) accurate intramolecular potential energy surface and dipole moment surface components well-defined in a large range of vibrational displacements and (ii) efficient computational methods combined with suitable choices of coordinates to account for molecular symmetry properties and to achieve a good numerical

  5. Initial sexual maturity and fecundity of the goldfish Carassius auratus (Perciformes: Cyprynidae under semi-controlled conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.A Ortega-Salas

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available We studied the time of initial sexual maturity and the fecundity of the goldfish Carassius auratus under semi-controlled conditions. During the study the water temperature fluctuated from 21 to 30 ºC, the pH between 7 and 8, and the dissolved oxygen between 5.5 and 7 ppm. Sixty days old juvenile fish received prophylactic treatments of brackish water (15 ‰ and methylene blue baths (1 %, and they were fed with live Daphnia magna. The initial sexual maturity occurred between 225 and 233 days of captivity. Mean absolute fecundity was 2 347 (± 302.2 SD ova per gonad, and mean relative fecundity was 63.44 eggs/g fish weight. Gonadosomatic index was between 7.5 and 9.0. Our data will allow ornamental fish producers to calculate the time of initial maturity and fecundity for this species. Rev. Biol. Trop. 54 (4: 1113-1116. Epub 2006 Dec. 15.Estudiamos el tiempo inicial de madurez sexual y la fecundidad del pez dorado Carassius auratus en condiciones semi-controladas. Durante el estudio la temperatura del gua varió de 21 a 30 ºC, el pH entre 7 y 8, y el oxígeno disuelto entre 5.5 y 7 ppm. Jóvenes de 60 días de edad recibieron tratamiento profiláctico con agua salobre (15 ‰, y baños de azul de metileno (1 %. Se les alimentó con Daphnia magna. La madurez sexual inicial fue tras 225 a 233 días en cautiverio. La fecundidad absoluta media fue de 2 347 (±302.2 DS óvulos por gónada y la fecundidad relativa fue de 63.44 óvulos/g del peso del pez. El índice gonadosomático se calculó entre 7.5 and 9.0.

  6. Experimental study of the initial conditions of the Rayleigh-Taylor instability at the ablation front in inertial confinement fusion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Delorme, Barthelemy

    2015-01-01

    Numerous designs and experiments in the domain of Inertial Confinement Fusion (ICF) show that, in both direct and indirect drive approaches, one of the main limitations to reach the ignition is the Rayleigh-Taylor instability (RTI). It may lead to shell disruption and performance degradation of spherically imploding targets. Thus, the understanding and the control of the initial conditions of the RTI is of crucial importance for the ICF program. In this thesis, we present an experimental and theoretical study of the initial conditions of the ablative RTI in direct drive, by means of two experimental campaigns performed on the OMEGA laser facility (LLE, Rochester). The first campaign consisted in studying the laser-imprinted ablative Richtmyer-Meshkov instability (RMI) which starts at the beginning of the interaction and seeds the ablative RTI. We set up an experimental configuration that allowed to measure for the first time the temporal evolution of the laser-imprinted ablative RMI. The experimental results have been interpreted by a theoretical model and numerical simulations performed with the hydrodynamic code CHIC. We show that the best way to control the ablative RMI is to reduce the laser intensity inhomogeneities. This can be achieved with targets covered by a layer of a low density foam. Thus, in the second campaign, we studied for the first time the effect of underdense foams on the growth of the ablative RTI. A layer of low density foam was placed in front of a plastic foil, and the perturbation was imprinted by an intensity modulated laser beam. Experimental data are presented: backscattered laser energy, target dynamic obtained by side-on self emission measurement, and face-on radiographs showing the effect of the foams on the target areal density modulations. These data were interpreted using the CHIC code and the laser-plasma interaction code PARAX. We show that the foams noticeably reduce the amplitude of the laser intensity inhomogeneities and the

  7. Predicting the biological condition of streams: Use of geospatial indicators of natural and anthropogenic characteristics of watersheds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlisle, D.M.; Falcone, J.; Meador, M.R.

    2009-01-01

    We developed and evaluated empirical models to predict biological condition of wadeable streams in a large portion of the eastern USA, with the ultimate goal of prediction for unsampled basins. Previous work had classified (i.e., altered vs. unaltered) the biological condition of 920 streams based on a biological assessment of macroinvertebrate assemblages. Predictor variables were limited to widely available geospatial data, which included land cover, topography, climate, soils, societal infrastructure, and potential hydrologic modification. We compared the accuracy of predictions of biological condition class based on models with continuous and binary responses. We also evaluated the relative importance of specific groups and individual predictor variables, as well as the relationships between the most important predictors and biological condition. Prediction accuracy and the relative importance of predictor variables were different for two subregions for which models were created. Predictive accuracy in the highlands region improved by including predictors that represented both natural and human activities. Riparian land cover and road-stream intersections were the most important predictors. In contrast, predictive accuracy in the lowlands region was best for models limited to predictors representing natural factors, including basin topography and soil properties. Partial dependence plots revealed complex and nonlinear relationships between specific predictors and the probability of biological alteration. We demonstrate a potential application of the model by predicting biological condition in 552 unsampled basins across an ecoregion in southeastern Wisconsin (USA). Estimates of the likelihood of biological condition of unsampled streams could be a valuable tool for screening large numbers of basins to focus targeted monitoring of potentially unaltered or altered stream segments. ?? Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2008.

  8. Modeling long period swell in Southern California: Practical boundary conditions from buoy observations and global wave model predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crosby, S. C.; O'Reilly, W. C.; Guza, R. T.

    2016-02-01

    Accurate, unbiased, high-resolution (in space and time) nearshore wave predictions are needed to drive models of beach erosion, coastal flooding, and alongshore transport of sediment, biota and pollutants. On highly sheltered shorelines, wave predictions are sensitive to the directions of onshore propagating waves, and nearshore model prediction error is often dominated by uncertainty in offshore boundary conditions. Offshore islands and shoals, and coastline curvature, create complex sheltering patterns over the 250km span of southern California (SC) shoreline. Here, regional wave model skill in SC was compared for different offshore boundary conditions created using offshore buoy observations and global wave model hindcasts (National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration Wave Watch 3, WW3). Spectral ray-tracing methods were used to transform incident offshore swell (0.04-0.09Hz) energy at high directional resolution (1-deg). Model skill is assessed for predictions (wave height, direction, and alongshore radiation stress) at 16 nearshore buoy sites between 2000 and 2009. Model skill using buoy-derived boundary conditions is higher than with WW3-derived boundary conditions. Buoy-driven nearshore model results are similar with various assumptions about the true offshore directional distribution (maximum entropy, Bayesian direct, and 2nd derivative smoothness). Two methods combining offshore buoy observations with WW3 predictions in the offshore boundary condition did not improve nearshore skill above buoy-only methods. A case example at Oceanside harbor shows strong sensitivity of alongshore sediment transport predictions to different offshore boundary conditions. Despite this uncertainty in alongshore transport magnitude, alongshore gradients in transport (e.g. the location of model accretion and erosion zones) are determined by the local bathymetry, and are similar for all predictions.

  9. Predicting falls in elderly patients with chronic pain and other chronic conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lazkani, Aida; Delespierre, Tiba; Bauduceau, Bernard; Benattar-Zibi, Linda; Bertin, Philippe; Berrut, Gilles; Corruble, Emmanuelle; Danchin, Nicolas; Derumeaux, Geneviève; Doucet, Jean; Falissard, Bruno; Forette, Francoise; Hanon, Olivier; Pasquier, Florence; Pinget, Michel; Ourabah, Rissane; Piedvache, Celine; Becquemont, Laurent

    2015-10-01

    The aim was to identify fall predictors in elderly suffering from chronic pain (CP) and to test their applicability among patients with other chronic conditions. 1,379 non-institutionalized patients aged 65 years and older who were suffering from CP (S.AGE CP sub-cohort) were monitored every 6 months for 1 year. Socio-demographic, clinical and pain data and medication use were assessed at baseline for the association with falls in the following year. Falls were assessed retrospectively at each study visit. Logistic regression analyses were performed to identify fall predictors. The derived model was applied to two additional S.AGE sub-cohorts: atrial fibrillation (AF) (n = 1,072) and type-2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) (n = 983). Four factors predicted falls in the CP sub-cohort: fall history (OR: 4.03, 95 % CI 2.79-5.82), dependency in daily activities (OR: 1.81, 95 % CI 1.27-2.59), age ≥75 (OR: 1.53, 95 % CI 1.04-2.25) and living alone (OR: 1.73, 95 % CI 1.24-2.41) (Area Under the Curve: AUC = 0.71, 95 % CI 0.67-0.75). These factors were relevant in AF (AUC = 0.71, 95 % CI 0.66-0.75) and T2DM (AUC = 0.67, 95 % CI 0.59-0.73) sub-cohorts. Fall predicted probability in CP, AF and T2DM sub-cohorts increased from 7, 7 and 6 % in patients with no risk factors to 59, 66 and 45 % respectively, in those with the four predictors. Fall history was the strongest predictor in the three sub-cohorts. Fall history, dependency in daily activities, age ≥75 and living alone are independent fall predictors in CP, AF and T2DM patients.

  10. CADDIS Volume 4. Data Analysis: Predicting Environmental Conditions from Biological Observations (PECBO Appendix)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Overview of PECBO Module, using scripts to infer environmental conditions from biological observations, statistically estimating species-environment relationships, methods for inferring environmental conditions, statistical scripts in module.

  11. How will precipitation change in extratropical cyclones as the planet warms? Insights from a large initial condition climate model ensemble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yettella, Vineel; Kay, Jennifer E.

    2017-09-01

    The extratropical precipitation response to global warming is investigated within a 30-member initial condition climate model ensemble. As in observations, modeled cyclonic precipitation contributes a large fraction of extratropical precipitation, especially over the ocean and in the winter hemisphere. When compared to present day, the ensemble projects increased cyclone-associated precipitation under twenty-first century business-as-usual greenhouse gas forcing. While the cyclone-associated precipitation response is weaker in the near-future (2016-2035) than in the far-future (2081-2100), both future periods have similar patterns of response. Though cyclone frequency changes are important regionally, most of the increased cyclone-associated precipit