WorldWideScience

Sample records for initial conditions predictions

  1. Quantifying the role of ocean initial conditions in decadal prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matei, D.; Pohlmann, H.; Müller, W.; Haak, H.; Jungclaus, J.; Marotzke, J.

    2009-04-01

    The forecast skill of decadal climate predictions is investigated using two different initialization strategies. First we apply an assimilation of ocean synthesis data provided by the GECCO project (Köhl and Stammer 2008) as initial conditions for the coupled model ECHAM5/MPI-OM. The results show promising skill up to decadal time scales particularly over the North Atlantic (see also Pohlmann et al. 2009). However, mismatches between the ocean climates of GECCO and the MPI-OM model may lead to inconsistencies in the representation of water masses. Therefore, we pursue an alternative approach to the representation of the observed North Atlantic climate for the period 1948-2007. Using the same MPI-OM ocean model as in the coupled system, we perform an ensemble of four NCEP integrations. The ensemble mean temperature and salinity anomalies are then nudged into the coupled model, followed by hindcast/forecast experiments. The model gives dynamically consistent three-dimensional temperature and salinity fields, thereby avoiding the problems of model drift that were encountered when the assimilation experiment was only driven by reconstructed SSTs (Keenlyside et al. 2008, Pohlmann et al. 2009). Differences between the two assimilation approaches are discussed by comparing them with the observational data in key regions and processes, such as North Atlantic and Tropical Pacific climate, MOC variability, Subpolar Gyre variability.

  2. Initial-Condition Sensitivities and the Predictability of Downslope Winds

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-11-01

    stability in the lower tropo - sphere and weaker stability farther aloft. 4. Downslope wind variability In this section, the predictability of the...level to 40 m s21 near the tropo - pause. The stability of the upstream profiles is also very similar between strong and weak members (Figs. 10a,b). A

  3. The role of boundary and initial conditions for dynamical seasonal predictability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. J. Reichler

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available The importance of initial state and boundary forcing for atmospheric predictability is explored on global to regional spatial scales and on daily to seasonal time scales. A general circulation model is used to conduct predictability experiments with different combinations of initial and boundary conditions. The experiments are verified under perfect model assumptions as well as against observational data. From initial conditions alone, there is significant instantaneous forecast skill out to 2 months. Different initial conditions show different predictability using the same kind of boundary forcing. Even on seasonal time scales, using observed atmospheric initial conditions leads to a substantial increase in overall skill, especially during periods with weak tropical forcing. The impact of boundary forcing on predictability is detectable after 10 days and leads to measurable instantaneous forecast skill at very long lead times. Over the Northern Hemisphere, it takes roughly 4 weeks for boundary conditions to reach the same effect on predictability as initial conditions. During events with strong tropical forcing, these time scales are somewhat shorter. Over the Southern Hemisphere, there is a strongly enhanced influence of initial conditions during summer. We conclude that the long term memory of initial conditions is important for seasonal forecasting.

  4. EXPERIMENTAL STUDY OF THE ROLE OF INITIAL AND BOUNDARY CONDITIONS IN MESOSCALE NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YAN Jing-hua(闫敬华); Detlev Majewski

    2003-01-01

    Based on the real case of a frontal precipitation process affecting South China, 27 controlled numerical experiments was made for the effects of hydrostatic and non-hydrostatic effects, different driving models, combinations of initial/boundary conditions, updates of lateral values and initial time levels of forecast, on model predictions. Features about the impact of initial/boundary conditions on mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) model are analyzed and discussed in detail. Some theoretically and practically valuable conclusions aredrawn. It is found that the overall tendency of mesoscale NWP models is governed by its driving model, with the initial conditions showing remarkable impacts on mesoscale models for the first 10 hours of the predictions while leaving lateral boundary conditions to take care the period beyond; the latter affect the inner area of mesoscale predictions mainly through the propagation and movement of weather signals (waves) of different time scales; initial values of external model parameters such as soil moisture content may affect predictions of more longer time validity, while fast signals may be filtered away and only information with time scale 4 times as large as or more than the updated period of boundary values may be introduced, through lateral boundary, to mesoscale models, etc. Someresults may be taken as important guidance on mesoscale model and its data assimilation developments of the future.

  5. On the Impact of Uncertainty in Initial Conditions of Hydrologic Models on Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Razavi, S.; Sheikholeslami, R.

    2015-12-01

    Determining the initial conditions for predictive models remains a challenge due to the uncertainty in measurement/identification of the state variables at the scale of interest. However, the characterization of uncertainty in initial conditions has arguably attracted less attention compared with other sources of uncertainty in hydrologic modelling (e.g, parameter, data, and structural uncertainty). This is perhaps because it is commonly believed that: (1) hydrologic systems (relatively rapidly) forget their initial conditions over time, and (2) other sources of uncertainty (e.g., in data) are dominant. This presentation revisits the basic principles of the theory of nonlinear dynamical systems in the context of hydrologic systems. Through simple example case studies, we demonstrate how and under what circumstances different hydrologic processes represent a range of attracting limit sets in their evolution trajectory in state space over time, including fixed points, limit cycles (periodic behaviour), torus (quasi-periodic behaviour), and strange attractors (chaotic behaviour). Furthermore, the propagation (or dissipation) of uncertainty in initial conditions of several hydrologic models through time, under any of the possible attracting limit sets, is investigated. This study highlights that there are definite situations in hydrology where uncertainty in initial conditions remains of significance. The results and insights gained have important implications for hydrologic modelling under non-stationarity in climate and environment.

  6. The design of predictive control with characterized set of initial condition for constrained switched nonlinear system

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SU BaiLi; LI ShaoYuan; ZHU QuanMin

    2009-01-01

    Stabilization of the constrained switched nonlinear systems is an attractive research subject. Predictive control can handle variable constraints well and make the system stable. Its stability is typically based on an assumption of initial feasibility of the optimization problem; however the set of initial conditions, starting from where a given predictive formulation is guaranteed to be feasible, is not explicitly char-acterized. In this paper, a hybrid predictive control method is proposed for a class of switched nonlin-ear systems with input constraints and un-measurable states. The main idea is to design a mixed con-troller using Lyapunov functions and a state observer, which switches appropriately between a bounded feedback controller and a predictive controller, and to give an explicitly characterized set of initial conditions to stabilize each closed-loop subsystem. For the whole switched nonlinear system, a suitable switched law based on the state estimation is designed to orchestrate the transitions between the consistituent modes and their respective controllers, and to ensure the whole closed-loop system's stability. The simulation results for a chemical process show the validity of the controller proposed in this paper.

  7. The design of predictive control with characterized set of initial condition for constrained switched nonlinear system

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    Stabilization of the constrained switched nonlinear systems is an attractive research subject. Predictive control can handle variable constraints well and make the system stable. Its stability is typically based on an assumption of initial feasibility of the optimization problem; however the set of initial conditions, starting from where a given predictive formulation is guaranteed to be feasible, is not explicitly characterized. In this paper, a hybrid predictive control method is proposed for a class of switched nonlinear systems with input constraints and un-measurable states. The main idea is to design a mixed controller using Lyapunov functions and a state observer, which switches appropriately between a bounded feedback controller and a predictive controller, and to give an explicitly characterized set of initial conditions to stabilize each closed-loop subsystem. For the whole switched nonlinear system, a suitable switched law based on the state estimation is designed to orchestrate the transitions between the consistituent modes and their respective controllers, and to ensure the whole closed-loop system’s stability. The simulation results for a chemical process show the validity of the controller proposed in this paper.

  8. Improving the characterization of initial condition for ensemble streamflow prediction using data assimilation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. M. DeChant

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Within the National Weather Service River Forecast System, water supply forecasting is performed through Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP. ESP relies both on the estimation of initial conditions and historically resampled forcing data to produce seasonal volumetric forecasts. In the western US, the accuracy of initial condition estimation is particularly important due to the large quantities of water stored in mountain snowpack. In order to improve the estimation of snow quantities, this study explores the use of ensemble data assimilation. Rather than relying entirely on the model to create single deterministic initial snow water storage, as currently implemented in operational forecasting, this study incorporates SNOTEL data along with model predictions to create an ensemble based probabilistic estimation of snow water storage. This creates a framework to account for initial condition uncertainty in addition to forcing uncertainty. The results presented in this study suggest that data assimilation has the potential to improve ESP for probabilistic volumetric forecasts but is limited by the available observations.

  9. Characterizing climate predictability and model response variability from multiple initial condition and multi-model ensembles

    CERN Document Server

    Kumar, Devashish

    2016-01-01

    Climate models are thought to solve boundary value problems unlike numerical weather prediction, which is an initial value problem. However, climate internal variability (CIV) is thought to be relatively important at near-term (0-30 year) prediction horizons, especially at higher resolutions. The recent availability of significant numbers of multi-model (MME) and multi-initial condition (MICE) ensembles allows for the first time a direct sensitivity analysis of CIV versus model response variability (MRV). Understanding the relative agreement and variability of MME and MICE ensembles for multiple regions, resolutions, and projection horizons is critical for focusing model improvements, diagnostics, and prognosis, as well as impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability studies. Here we find that CIV (MICE agreement) is lower (higher) than MRV (MME agreement) across all spatial resolutions and projection time horizons for both temperature and precipitation. However, CIV dominates MRV over higher latitudes generally an...

  10. MERGER RATES OF DOUBLE NEUTRON STARS AND STELLAR ORIGIN BLACK HOLES: THE IMPACT OF INITIAL CONDITIONS ON BINARY EVOLUTION PREDICTIONS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mink, S. E. de [Anton Pannenkoek Astronomical Institute, University of Amsterdam, 1090 GE Amsterdam (Netherlands); Belczynski, K., E-mail: S.E.deMink@uva.nl, E-mail: kbelczyn@astrouw.edu.pl [Astronomical Observatory, Warsaw University, Al. Ujazdowskie 4, 00-478 Warsaw (Poland)

    2015-11-20

    The initial mass function (IMF), binary fraction, and distributions of binary parameters (mass ratios, separations, and eccentricities) are indispensable inputs for simulations of stellar populations. It is often claimed that these are poorly constrained, significantly affecting evolutionary predictions. Recently, dedicated observing campaigns have provided new constraints on the initial conditions for massive stars. Findings include a larger close binary fraction and a stronger preference for very tight systems. We investigate the impact on the predicted merger rates of neutron stars and black holes. Despite the changes with previous assumptions, we only find an increase of less than a factor of 2 (insignificant compared with evolutionary uncertainties of typically a factor of 10–100). We further show that the uncertainties in the new initial binary properties do not significantly affect (within a factor of 2) our predictions of double compact object merger rates. An exception is the uncertainty in IMF (variations by a factor of 6 up and down). No significant changes in the distributions of final component masses, mass ratios, chirp masses, and delay times are found. We conclude that the predictions are, for practical purposes, robust against uncertainties in the initial conditions concerning binary parameters, with the exception of the IMF. This eliminates an important layer of the many uncertain assumptions affecting the predictions of merger detection rates with the gravitational wave detectors aLIGO/aVirgo.

  11. Merger rates of double neutron stars and stellar origin black holes: The Impact of Initial Conditions on Binary Evolution Predictions

    CERN Document Server

    de Mink, S E

    2015-01-01

    The initial mass function (IMF), binary fraction and distributions of binary parameters (mass ratios, separations and eccentricities) are indispensable input for simulations of stellar populations. It is often claimed that these are poorly constrained significantly affecting evolutionary predictions. Recently, dedicated observing campaigns provided new constraints on the initial conditions for massive stars. Findings include a larger close binary fraction and a stronger preference for very tight systems. We investigate the impact on the predicted merger rates of neutron stars and black holes. Despite the changes with previous assumptions, we only find an increase of less than a factor 2 (insignificant compared with evolutionary uncertainties of typically a factor 10-100). We further show that the uncertainties in the new initial binary properties do not significantly affect (within a factor of 2) our predictions of double compact object merger rates. An exception is the uncertainty in IMF (variations by a fac...

  12. Initial conditions for inflation

    CERN Document Server

    Dimopoulos, Konstantinos

    2016-01-01

    A novel proposal is presented, which manages to overcome the initial conditions problem of inflation with a plateau. An earlier period of proto-inflation, beginning at Planck scale, accounts for the Universe expansion and arranges the required initial conditions for inflation on the plateu to commence. We show that, if proto-inflation is power-law, it does not suffer from any eternal inflationary stage. A simple model realisation is constructed in the context of $\\alpha$-attractors, which can both generate the inflationary plateau and the exponential slopes around it, necessary for the two inflation stages. Our mechanism allows to assume chaotic initial conditions at the Planck scale for proto-inflation, it is generic and it is shown to work without fine-tunings.

  13. Predicting uncertainty in sediment transport and landscape evolution - the influence of initial surface conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hancock, G. R.; Coulthard, T. J.; Lowry, J. B. C.

    2016-05-01

    Numerical landscape evolution models were initially developed to examine natural catchment hydrology and geomorphology and have become a common tool to examine geomorphic behaviour over a range of time and space scales. These models all use a digital elevation model (DEM) as a representation of the landscape surface and a significant issue is the quality and resolution of this surface. Here we focus on how subtle perturbations or roughness on the DEM surface can produce alternative model results. This study is carried out by randomly varying the elevations of the DEM surface and examining the effect on sediment transport rates and geomorphology for a proposed rehabilitation design for a post-mining landscape using multiple landscape realisations with increasing magnitudes of random changes. We show that an increasing magnitude of random surface variability does not appear to have any significant effect on sediment transport over millennial time scales. However, the random surface variability greatly changes the temporal pattern or delivery of sediment output. A significant finding is that all simulations at the end of the 10,000 year modelled period are geomorphologically similar and present a geomorphological equifinality. However, the individual patterns of erosion and deposition were different for repeat simulations with a different sequence of random perturbations. The alternative positions of random perturbations strongly influence local patterns of hillslope erosion and evolution together with the pattern and behaviour of deposition. The findings demonstrate the complex feedbacks that occur even within a simple modelled system.

  14. Initial conditions for inflation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dimopoulos, Konstantinos; Artymowski, Michał

    2017-09-01

    Within the α-attractors framework we investigate scalar potentials with the same pole as the one featured in the kinetic term. We show that, in field space, this leads to directions without a plateau. Using this, we present a proposal, which manages to overcome the initial conditions problem of inflation with a plateau. An earlier period of proto-inflation, beginning at Planck scale, accounts for the Universe expansion and arranges the required initial conditions for inflation on the plateau to commence. We show that, if proto-inflation is power-law, it does not suffer from a sub-Planckian eternal inflationary stage, which would otherwise be a problem. A simple model realisation is constructed in the context of α-attractors, which can both generate the inflationary plateau and the exponential slopes around it, necessary for the two inflation stages. Our mechanism allows to assume chaotic initial conditions at the Planck scale for proto-inflation, it is generic and it is shown to work without fine-tuning.

  15. Quantum Measurement and Initial Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stoica, Ovidiu Cristinel

    2016-03-01

    Quantum measurement finds the observed system in a collapsed state, rather than in the state predicted by the Schrödinger equation. Yet there is a relatively spread opinion that the wavefunction collapse can be explained by unitary evolution (for instance in the decoherence approach, if we take into account the environment). In this article it is proven a mathematical result which severely restricts the initial conditions for which measurements have definite outcomes, if pure unitary evolution is assumed. This no-go theorem remains true even if we take the environment into account. The result does not forbid a unitary description of the measurement process, it only shows that such a description is possible only for very restricted initial conditions. The existence of such restrictions of the initial conditions can be understood in the four-dimensional block universe perspective, as a requirement of global self-consistency of the solutions of the Schrödinger equation.

  16. Iterative initial condition reconstruction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmittfull, Marcel; Baldauf, Tobias; Zaldarriaga, Matias

    2017-07-01

    Motivated by recent developments in perturbative calculations of the nonlinear evolution of large-scale structure, we present an iterative algorithm to reconstruct the initial conditions in a given volume starting from the dark matter distribution in real space. In our algorithm, objects are first moved back iteratively along estimated potential gradients, with a progressively reduced smoothing scale, until a nearly uniform catalog is obtained. The linear initial density is then estimated as the divergence of the cumulative displacement, with an optional second-order correction. This algorithm should undo nonlinear effects up to one-loop order, including the higher-order infrared resummation piece. We test the method using dark matter simulations in real space. At redshift z =0 , we find that after eight iterations the reconstructed density is more than 95% correlated with the initial density at k ≤0.35 h Mpc-1 . The reconstruction also reduces the power in the difference between reconstructed and initial fields by more than 2 orders of magnitude at k ≤0.2 h Mpc-1 , and it extends the range of scales where the full broadband shape of the power spectrum matches linear theory by a factor of 2-3. As a specific application, we consider measurements of the baryonic acoustic oscillation (BAO) scale that can be improved by reducing the degradation effects of large-scale flows. In our idealized dark matter simulations, the method improves the BAO signal-to-noise ratio by a factor of 2.7 at z =0 and by a factor of 2.5 at z =0.6 , improving standard BAO reconstruction by 70% at z =0 and 30% at z =0.6 , and matching the optimal BAO signal and signal-to-noise ratio of the linear density in the same volume. For BAO, the iterative nature of the reconstruction is the most important aspect.

  17. Initial Cladding Condition

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    E. Siegmann

    2000-08-22

    The purpose of this analysis is to describe the condition of commercial Zircaloy clad fuel as it is received at the Yucca Mountain Project (YMP) site. Most commercial nuclear fuel is encased in Zircaloy cladding. This analysis is developed to describe cladding degradation from the expected failure modes. This includes reactor operation impacts including incipient failures, potential degradation after reactor operation during spent fuel storage in pool and dry storage and impacts due to transportation. Degradation modes include cladding creep, and delayed hydride cracking during dry storage and transportation. Mechanical stresses from fuel handling and transportation vibrations are also included. This Analysis and Model Report (AMR) does not address any potential damage to assemblies that might occur at the YMP surface facilities. Ranges and uncertainties have been defined. This analysis will be the initial boundary condition for the analysis of cladding degradation inside the repository. In accordance with AP-2.13Q, ''Technical Product Development Planning'', a work plan (CRWMS M&O 2000c) was developed, issued, and utilized in the preparation of this document. There are constraints, caveats and limitations to this analysis. This cladding degradation analysis is based on commercial Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) fuel with Zircaloy cladding but is applicable to Boiling Water Reactor (BWR) fuel. Reactor operating experience for both PWRs and BWRs is used to establish fuel reliability from reactor operation. It is limited to fuel exposed to normal operation and anticipated operational occurrences (i.e. events which are anticipated to occur within a reactor lifetime), and not to fuel that has been exposed to severe accidents. Fuel burnup projections have been limited to the current commercial reactor licensing environment with restrictions on fuel enrichment, oxide coating thickness and rod plenum pressures. The information provided in this analysis

  18. WRF prediction of two winter season Saharan dust events using PM10 concentrations: Boundary versus initial conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jenkins, Gregory S.; Diokhane, Aminita Mbow

    2017-10-01

    During the northern hemisphere winter and spring seasons Saharan dust events overspreading West Africa are frequent and linked to mid-latitude interactions. The dust events have the ability to produce low visibilities, poor air quality and can promote respiratory disease. While a number of case studies have been undertaken, the ability to forecast Saharan dust events is largely unknown. To investigate this matter, we have performed hindcasts using the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model with the Goddard Chemistry Aerosols Radiation Transport (GOCART) module, with 6-h boundary conditions from the NOAA ' National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) final analysis (FNL). We use observed and forecasted PM10 concentrations to evaluate the hindcasts. The hindcasts begin with different conditions 3-8 days before two Saharan dust events where the maximum Particulate matter at 10 microns (PM10) concentrations are observed on 20 January and 7 February 2012 in Dakar, Senegal. The results show that all hindcasts are able to capture the timing of the peak on 20 January but the maximum peak during the second dust event occurs one day prior to the observed peak on 7 February with similar pattern from satellite based aerosol optical depth (AOD) estimates. The hindcasts have positive biases in PM10 concentrations relative to the observations in Dakar Senegal. The hindcasts suggest that WRF model has the potential to effectively forecasts Saharan dust events in real-time forecasts, however, they must be evaluated against additional surface PM10 observations at varying locations, which are currently sparse over West Africa.

  19. Initial conditions for cosmological perturbations

    CERN Document Server

    Ashtekar, Abhay

    2016-01-01

    Penrose proposed that the big bang singularity should be constrained by requiring that the Weyl curvature vanishes there. The idea behind this past hypothesis is attractive because it constrains the initial conditions for the universe in geometric terms and is not confined to a specific early universe paradigm. However, the precise statement of Penrose's hypothesis is tied to classical space-times and furthermore restricts only the gravitational degrees of freedom. These are encapsulated only in the tensor modes of the commonly used cosmological perturbation theory. Drawing inspiration from the underlying idea, we propose a quantum generalization of Penrose's hypothesis using the Planck regime in place of the big bang, and simultaneously incorporating tensor as well as scalar modes. Initial conditions selected by this generalization constrain the universe to be as homogeneous and isotropic in the Planck regime \\emph{as permitted by the Heisenberg uncertainty relations}.

  20. Hydrodynamics from Landau initial conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sen, Abhisek [University of Tennessee, Knoxville (UTK); Gerhard, Jochen [Frankfurt Institute for Advanced Studies (FIAS), Germany; Torrieri, Giorgio [Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Física " Gleb Wataghin" (IFGW), Sao Paulo, Brazil; Read jr, Kenneth F. [University of Tennessee (UTK) and Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL); Wong, Cheuk-Yin [ORNL

    2015-01-01

    We investigate ideal hydrodynamic evolution, with Landau initial conditions, both in a semi-analytical 1+1D approach and in a numerical code incorporating event-by-event variation with many events and transverse density inhomogeneities. The object of the calculation is to test how fast would a Landau initial condition transition to a commonly used boost-invariant expansion. We show that the transition to boost-invariant flow occurs too late for realistic setups, with corrections of O (20 - 30%) expected at freezeout for most scenarios. Moreover, the deviation from boost-invariance is correlated with both transverse flow and elliptic flow, with the more highly transversely flowing regions also showing the most violation of boost invariance. Therefore, if longitudinal flow is not fully developed at the early stages of heavy ion collisions, 2+1 dimensional hydrodynamics is inadequate to extract transport coefficients of the quark-gluon plasma. Based on [1, 2

  1. Higgs Inflation and General Initial Conditions

    CERN Document Server

    Zeynizadeh, Sarang

    2015-01-01

    Higgs field of particle physics can play the role of the inflaton in the early universe, if it is non-minimally coupled to gravity. The Higgs inflation scenario predicts a small tensor to scalar ratio: $r\\simeq 0.003$. Although this value is consistent with the upper bound $r < 0.12$ given by BICEP2/Keck Array and Planck data, but it is not at their maximum likelihood point: $r\\simeq 0.05$. Inflationary observables depend not only on the inflationary models, but also depend on the initial conditions of inflation. Changing initial state of inflation can improve the value of $r$. In this work, we study the Higgs inflation model under general initial conditions and show that there is a subset of these general initial conditions which leads to enhancement of $r$. Then we show that this region of parameter space is consistent with non-Gaussianity bound.

  2. Initial conditions from the shadowed Glauber model

    CERN Document Server

    Chatterjee, Sandeep; Ghosh, Snigdha; Hasanujjaman, Md; Alam, Jane; Sarkar, Sourav

    2015-01-01

    The two component Monte-Carlo Glauber model predicts a knee-like structure in the centrality dependence of elliptic flow $v_2$ in Uranium+Uranium collisions at $\\sqrt{s_{\\rm NN}}=193$ GeV. It also produces a strong anti-correlation between $v_2$ and $dN_{ch}/dy$ in the case of top ZDC events. However, none of these features have been observed in data. We address these discrepancies by including the effect of nucleon shadowing to the two component Monte-Carlo Glauber model. Apart from addressing successfully the above issues, we find that the nucleon shadow suppresses the event by event fluctuation of various quantities, e.g. $\\varepsilon_2$ which is in accordance with expectation from the dynamical models of initial condition based on gluon saturation physics.

  3. Initial Conditions for Large Cosmological Simulations

    CERN Document Server

    Prunet, S; Aubert, D; Pogosyan, D; Teyssier, R; Gottlöber, S

    2008-01-01

    This technical paper describes a software package that was designed to produce initial conditions for large cosmological simulations in the context of the Horizon collaboration. These tools generalize E. Bertschinger's Grafic1 software to distributed parallel architectures and offer a flexible alternative to the Grafic2 software for ``zoom'' initial conditions, at the price of large cumulated cpu and memory usage. The codes have been validated up to resolutions of 4096^3 and were used to generate the initial conditions of large hydrodynamical and dark matter simulations. They also provide means to generate constrained realisations for the purpose of generating initial conditions compatible with, e.g. the local group, or the SDSS catalog.

  4. Multi-Vacuum Initial Conditions and the Arrow of Time

    CERN Document Server

    Bousso, Raphael

    2012-01-01

    Depending on the type and arrangement of metastable vacua in the theory, initial conditions in a de Sitter vacuum with arbitrarily large entropy can be compatible with the observed arrow of time, if the causal patch or related measures are used to regulate divergences. An important condition, however, is that the initial vacuum cannot produce observers from rare fluctuations (Boltzmann brains). Here we consider more general initial conditions where multiple vacua have nonzero initial probability. We examine whether the prediction of an arrow of time is destroyed by a small initial admixture of vacua that can produce Boltzmann brains. We identify general criteria and apply them to two nontrivial examples of such initial probability distributions. The Hartle-Hawking state is superexponentially dominated by the vacuum with smallest positive cosmological constant, so one might expect that other initial vacua can be neglected; but in fact, their inclusion drastically narrows the range of theory parameters for whic...

  5. Novel quantum initial conditions for inflation

    CERN Document Server

    Handley, W J; Hobson, M P

    2016-01-01

    We present a novel approach for setting initial conditions on the mode functions of the Mukhanov Sazaki equation. These conditions are motivated by minimisation of the renormalised stress-energy tensor, and are valid for setting a vacuum state even in a context where the spacetime is changing rapidly. Moreover, these alternative conditions are potentially observationally distinguishable. We apply this to the kinetically dominated universe, and compare with the more traditional approach.

  6. Initial conditions for the Galileon dark energy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Germani, Cristiano

    2017-03-01

    Galileon models are among the most appealing candidates for Dark Energy. The reason is twofold: classically, they provide a tracking solution leading to an almost DeSitter space starting from very generic initial conditions in the deep radiation era. The second reason is the standard lore that Galileons are quantum mechanically stable. The latter property is certainly true in flat space-time, thanks to the non-renormalisation theorems of Galilean coupling constants. However, in a cosmological background, we show that quantum effects might dominate the classical trajectory. Assuming the radiation era to last at least up to the electroweak phase transition, the trajectory with initial conditions sitting on the tracker is ruled out. On the other hand, it is always possible to find a sub-space of initial conditions such that the dark energy solution approaches stably the tracker at late times. Fixing the value of initial conditions that best fit current data, and assuming that the Galileon effective theory is valid up to the beginning of the radiation epoch, we found that the reheating temperature of the universe cannot be larger than 108 GeV. Reversing the argument, if dark energy will turn out to be in form of Galileons, the bounds by EUCLID on the initial conditions for these models will also be a bound on the reheating temperature of our Universe.

  7. Tubular initial conditions and ridge formation

    CERN Document Server

    Borysova, M S; Karpenko, Iu A; Shapoval, V M; Sinyukov, Yu M

    2013-01-01

    The 2D azimuth & rapidity structure of the two-particle correlations in relativistic A+A collisions is altered significantly by the presence of sharp inhomogeneities in superdense matter formed in such processes. The causality constraints enforce one to associate the long-range longitudinal correlations observed in a narrow angular interval, the so-called (soft) ridge, with peculiarities of the initial conditions of collision process. This study's objective is to analyze whether multiform initial tubular structures, undergoing the subsequent hydrodynamic evolution and gradual decoupling, can form the soft ridges. Motivated by the flux-tube scenarios, the initial energy density distribution contains the different numbers of high density tube-like boost-invariant inclusions that form a bumpy structure in the transverse plane. The influence of various structures of such initial conditions in the most central A+A events on the collective evolution of matter, resulting spectra, angular particle correlations an...

  8. Decaying magnetohydrodynamics: effects of initial conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basu

    2000-02-01

    We study the effects of homogenous and isotropic initial conditions on decaying magnetohydrodynamics (MHD). We show that for an initial distribution of velocity and magnetic-field fluctuations, appropriately defined structure functions decay as a power law in time. We also show that for a suitable choice of initial cross correlations between velocity and magnetic fields even-order structure functions acquire anomalous scaling in time where as scaling exponents of the odd-order structure functions remain unchanged. We discuss our results in the context of fully developed MHD turbulence.

  9. Initial conditions for the Galileon dark energy

    CERN Document Server

    Germani, Cristiano

    2016-01-01

    Galileon models are among the most appealing candidates for Dark Energy. The reason is twofold: classically, they provide a tracking solution leading to an almost DeSitter space starting from very generic initial conditions in the deep radiation era. The second reason is the standard lore that Galileons are quantum mechanically stable. The latter property is certainly true in flat space-time, thanks to the non-renormalization theorems of galilean coupling constants. However, in a cosmological background, we show that quantum effects might dominate the classical trajectory. Assuming the radiation era to last at least up to the electroweak phase transition, the trajectory with initial conditions sitting on the tracker is ruled out. On the other hand, it is always possible to find a sub-space of initial conditions such that the dark energy solution approaches stably the tracker at late times. Fixing the value of initial conditions that best fit current data, and assuming that the galileon effective theory is val...

  10. Initial conditions for turbulent mixing simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Kaman

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available In the context of the classical Rayleigh-Taylor hydrodynamical instability, we examine the much debated question of models for initial conditions and the possible influence of unrecorded long wave length contributions to the instability growth rate α.

  11. Modelling population processes with random initial conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pollett, P K; Dooley, A H; Ross, J V

    2010-02-01

    Population dynamics are almost inevitably associated with two predominant sources of variation: the first, demographic variability, a consequence of chance in progenitive and deleterious events; the second, initial state uncertainty, a consequence of partial observability and reporting delays and errors. Here we outline a general method for incorporating random initial conditions in population models where a deterministic model is sufficient to describe the dynamics of the population. Additionally, we show that for a large class of stochastic models the overall variation is the sum of variation due to random initial conditions and variation due to random dynamics, and thus we are able to quantify the variation not accounted for when random dynamics are ignored. Our results are illustrated with reference to both simulated and real data.

  12. Cosmic initial conditions for a habitable universe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahvar, Sohrab

    2017-09-01

    Within the framework of an eternal inflationary scenario, a natural question regarding the production of eternal bubbles is the essential conditions required to have a universe capable of generating life. In either an open or a closed universe, we find an anthropic lower bound on the amount of e-folding in the order of 60 for the inflationary epoch, which results in the formation of large-scale structures in both linear and non-linear regimes. We extend the question of the initial condition of the universe to the sufficient condition in which we have enough initial dark matter and baryonic matter asymmetry in the early universe for the formation of galactic halos, stars, planets and consequently life. We show that the probability of a habitable universe is proportional to the asymmetry of dark and baryonic matter, while the cosmic budget of baryonic matter is limited by astrophysical constraints.

  13. Causality, initial conditions and inflationary magnetogenesis

    CERN Document Server

    Tsagas, Christos G

    2016-01-01

    The post-inflationary evolution of inflation-produced magnetic fields, conventional or not, can change dramatically when two fundamental issues are accounted for. The first is causality, which demands that local physical processes can never affect superhorizon perturbations. The second is the nature of the transition from inflation to reheating and then to the radiation era, which determine the initial conditions at the start of these epochs. Technically, the latter issue can be addressed by appealing to Israel's junction conditions. Causality implies that inflationary magnetic fields dot not freeze into the matter until they have re-entered the causal horizon. The nature of cosmological transitions and the associated initial conditions, on the other hand, determine the large-scale magnetic evolution after inflation. Put together, the two can slow down the adiabatic decay of superhorizon-sized magnetic fields throughout their post-inflationary life and thus lead to considerably stronger residual strengths. Th...

  14. Conditional replenishment using motion prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hein, D. N.; Jones, H. W., Jr.

    1979-01-01

    Conditional replenishment is an interframe video compression method that uses correlation in time to reduce video transmission rates. This method works by detecting and sending only the changing portions of the image and by having the receiver use the video data from the previous frame for the non-changing portion. The amount of compression that can be achieved through this technique depends to a large extent on the rate of change within the image, and can vary from 10 to 1 to less than 2 to 1. An additional 3 to 1 reduction in rate is obtained by the intraframe coding of data blocks using a 2-dimensional variable rate Hadamard transform coder. A further additional 2 to 1 rate reduction is achieved by using motion prediction. Motion prediction works by measuring the relative displacements of a subpicture from one frame to the next. The subpicture can then be transmitted by sending only the value of the 2-dimensional displacement. Computer simulations have demonstrated that data rates of 2 to 4 Mega-bits/second can be achieved while still retaining good fidelity in the image.

  15. Cosmic Initial Condition for a Habitable Universe

    CERN Document Server

    Rahvar, Sohrab

    2016-01-01

    Within the framework of chaotic inflationary scenario, a natural question regarding the eternal bubble production is that what is the essential condition to have a universe being habitable ? In this work we investigate the minimum amount of e-folding for the inflationary area that results in the large scale structure formation at least in the linear regime. We extended this question to the sufficient condition of having enough initial baryonic asymmetry for the formation of the stars, planets and consequently life in the universe.

  16. Initial conditions of radiative shock experiments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kuranz, C. C.; Drake, R. P.; Krauland, C. M.; Marion, D. C.; Grosskopf, M. J.; Rutter, E.; Torralva, B.; Holloway, J. P. [Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Space Science, University of Michigan, Center for Radiative Shock Hydrodynamics, 2455 Hayward Dr., Ann Arbor, Michigan 48109 (United States); Bingham, D.; Goh, J. [Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, BC, Canada V5A 1S6 (Canada); Boehly, T. R.; Sorce, A. T. [Laboratory for Laser Energetics, University of Rochester, New York 14623 (United States)

    2013-05-15

    We performed experiments at the Omega Laser Facility to characterize the initial, laser-driven state of a radiative shock experiment. These experiments aimed to measure the shock breakout time from a thin, laser-irradiated Be disk. The data are then used to inform a range of valid model parameters, such as electron flux limiter and polytropic γ, used when simulating radiative shock experiments using radiation hydrodynamics codes. The characterization experiment and the radiative shock experiment use a laser irradiance of ∼7 × 10{sup 14} W cm{sup −2} to launch a shock in the Be disk. A velocity interferometer and a streaked optical pyrometer were used to infer the amount of time for the shock to move through the Be disk. The experimental results were compared with simulation results from the Hyades code, which can be used to model the initial conditions of a radiative shock system using the CRASH code.

  17. Magnetized initial conditions for CMB anisotropies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giovannini, Massimo

    2004-12-01

    This paper introduces a systematic treatment of the linear theory of scalar gravitational perturbations in the presence of a fully inhomogeneous magnetic field. The analysis is conducted both in the synchronous and in the conformally Newtonian gauges. The cosmological plasma is assumed to be composed of cold dark matter, baryons, photons, neutrinos. The problem of superhorizon initial conditions for the fluid variables of the various species and for the coupled system of Boltzmann-Einstein equations is discussed in the presence of an inhomogeneous magnetic field. The tight-coupling approximation for the Boltzmann hierarchy is extended to the case where gravitating magnetic fields are included.

  18. Initial conditions in the neural field model

    CERN Document Server

    Valdes-Hernandez, Pedro A

    2016-01-01

    In spite of the large amount of existing neural models in the literature, there is a lack of a systematic review of the possible effect of choosing different initial conditions on the dynamic evolution of neural systems. In this short review we intend to give insights into this topic by discussing some published examples. First, we briefly introduce the different ingredients of a neural dynamical model. Secondly, we introduce some concepts used to describe the dynamic behavior of neural models, namely phase space and its portraits, time series, spectra, multistability and bifurcations. We end with an analysis of the irreversibility of processes and its implications on the functioning of normal and pathological brains.

  19. On specification of initial conditions in turbulence models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rollin, Bertrand [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Andrews, Malcolm J [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2010-12-01

    Recent research has shown that initial conditions have a significant influence on the evolution of a flow towards turbulence. This important finding offers a unique opportunity for turbulence control, but also raises the question of how to properly specify initial conditions in turbulence models. We study this problem in the context of the Rayleigh-Taylor instability. The Rayleigh-Taylor instability is an interfacial fluid instability that leads to turbulence and turbulent mixing. It occurs when a light fluid is accelerated in to a heavy fluid because of misalignment between density and pressure gradients. The Rayleigh-Taylor instability plays a key role in a wide variety of natural and man-made flows ranging from supernovae to the implosion phase of Inertial Confinement Fusion (ICF). Our approach consists of providing the turbulence models with a predicted profile of its key variables at the appropriate time in accordance to the initial conditions of the problem.

  20. Seasonal predictions using a simple ocean initialization scheme

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Jieshun; Kumar, Arun; Lee, Hyun-Chul; Wang, Hui

    2017-02-01

    In this study, a simple ocean data assimilation scheme was applied to initialize a set of seasonal hindcasts, which started from each January, April, July and October during 1982-2010 with six ensemble members. In the scheme, sea surface temperature (SST) was the only observed information used to estimate the ocean initial states. Predictions of SST, 2-m temperature (T2m) and precipitation (Prate) over land were assessed and compared with hindcasts from the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME) project which were all based on sophisticated ocean initialization schemes with subsurface observations assimilated. The skill comparison indicated that, for all variables evaluated, the prediction skill by the simple ocean initialization procedure was well within the range of skills from individual NMME models. The result suggests that even though sophisticated initialization schemes have the potential to best capture the seasonal climate predictability, most present-day capabilities of seasonal predictions can also be accomplished by utilizing SST only. Further, significant seasonal dependence of prediction skill was also identified in hindcasts by the simple initialization scheme. Specifically, the ENSO SST predictions were featured by the significant "spring barrier" problem. It is argued that the ENSO prediction skill seasonality could be due to "double dip" contribution from the seasonality of climatic feedbacks in the tropical Pacific. In particular, these feedbacks not only play a role during the forecast leading to the largest errors in spring, but also cause the largest errors in the SST-derived ocean initial conditions in spring. Complementary aspects of seasonal forecasts based on simple initialization scheme, and use of low-resolution models are also discussed.

  1. MUSIC: MUlti-Scale Initial Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hahn, Oliver; Abel, Tom

    2013-11-01

    MUSIC generates multi-scale initial conditions with multiple levels of refinements for cosmological ‘zoom-in’ simulations. The code uses an adaptive convolution of Gaussian white noise with a real-space transfer function kernel together with an adaptive multi-grid Poisson solver to generate displacements and velocities following first- (1LPT) or second-order Lagrangian perturbation theory (2LPT). MUSIC achieves rms relative errors of the order of 10-4 for displacements and velocities in the refinement region and thus improves in terms of errors by about two orders of magnitude over previous approaches. In addition, errors are localized at coarse-fine boundaries and do not suffer from Fourier space-induced interference ringing.

  2. Classical and quantum initial conditions for Higgs inflation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alberto Salvio

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available We investigate whether Higgs inflation can occur in the Standard Model starting from natural initial conditions or not. The Higgs has a non-minimal coupling to the Ricci scalar. We confine our attention to the regime where quantum Einstein gravity effects are small in order to have results that are independent of the ultraviolet completion of gravity. At the classical level we find no tuning is required to have successful Higgs inflation, provided the initial homogeneity condition is satisfied. On the other hand, at the quantum level we obtain that the renormalization for large non-minimal coupling requires an additional degree of freedom, unless a tuning of the initial values of the running parameters is made. In order to see that this effect may change the predictions we finally include such degree of freedom in the field content and show that Starobinsky's R2 inflation dominates over Higgs inflation.

  3. Transients from Initial Conditions A Perturbative Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Scoccimarro, R

    1998-01-01

    The standard procedure to generate initial conditions (IC) in numerical simulations is to use the Zel'dovich approximation (ZA). Although the ZA correctly reproduces the linear growing modes of density and velocity perturbations, non-linear growth is inaccurately represented because of the ZA failure to conserve momentum. This implies that it takes time for the actual dynamics to establish the correct statistical properties of density and velocity fields. We extend perturbation theory (PT) to include transients as non-linear excitations of decaying modes caused by the IC. We focus on higher-order statistics of the density contrast and velocity divergence, characterized by the S_p and T_p parameters. We find that the time-scale of transients is determined, at a given order p, by the spectral index n. The skewness factor S_3 (T_3) attains 10% accuracy only after a=6 (a=15) for n=0, whereas higher (lower) n demands more (less) expansion away from the IC. These requirements become much more stringent as p increas...

  4. Initial Conditions and Modeling for Shock Driven Turbulence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grinstein, Fernando

    2016-11-01

    We focus on the simulation of shock-driven material mixing driven by flow instabilities and initial conditions. Beyond complex multi-scale resolution of shocks and variable density turbulence, me must address the equally difficult problem of predicting flow transition promoted by energy deposited at the material interfacial layer during the shock interface interactions. Transition involves unsteady large-scale coherent-structure dynamics which can be captured by LES, but not by URANS based on equilibrium turbulence assumptions and single-point-closure modeling. Such URANS is frequently preferred on the engineering end of computation capabilities for full-scale configurations - and with reduced 1D/2D dimensionality being also a common aspect. With suitable initialization around each transition - e.g., reshock, URANS can be used to simulate the subsequent near-equilibrium weakly turbulent flow. We demonstrate 3D state-of-the-art URANS performance in one such flow regime. We simulate the CEA planar shock-tube experiments by Poggi et al. (1998) with an ILES strategy. Laboratory turbulence and mixing data are used to benchmark ILES. In turn, the ILES generated data is used to initialize and as reference to assess state-of-the-art 3D URANS. We find that by prescribing physics-based 3D initial conditions and allowing for 3D flow convection with just enough resolution, the additionally computed dissipation in 3D URANS effectively blends with the modeled dissipation to yield significantly improved statistical predictions.

  5. Initial Cognitive Performance Predicts Longitudinal Aviator Performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jo, Booil; Adamson, Maheen M.; Kennedy, Quinn; Noda, Art; Hernandez, Beatriz; Zeitzer, Jamie M.; Friedman, Leah F.; Fairchild, Kaci; Scanlon, Blake K.; Murphy, Greer M.; Taylor, Joy L.

    2011-01-01

    Objectives. The goal of the study was to improve prediction of longitudinal flight simulator performance by studying cognitive factors that may moderate the influence of chronological age. Method. We examined age-related change in aviation performance in aircraft pilots in relation to baseline cognitive ability measures and aviation expertise. Participants were aircraft pilots (N = 276) aged 40–77.9. Flight simulator performance and cognition were tested yearly; there were an average of 4.3 (± 2.7; range 1–13) data points per participant. Each participant was classified into one of the three levels of aviation expertise based on Federal Aviation Administration pilot proficiency ratings: least, moderate, or high expertise. Results. Addition of measures of cognitive processing speed and executive function to a model of age-related change in aviation performance significantly improved the model. Processing speed and executive function performance interacted such that the slowest rate of decline in flight simulator performance was found in aviators with the highest scores on tests of these abilities. Expertise was beneficial to pilots across the age range studied; however, expertise did not show evidence of reducing the effect of age. Discussion. These data suggest that longitudinal performance on an important real-world activity can be predicted by initial assessment of relevant cognitive abilities. PMID:21586627

  6. Conditions for predicting quasistationary states by rearrangement formula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamaguchi, Yoshiyuki Y.; Ogawa, Shun

    2015-10-01

    Predicting the long-lasting quasistationary state for a given initial state is one of central issues in Hamiltonian systems having long-range interaction. A recently proposed method is based on the Vlasov description and uniformly redistributes the initial distribution along contours of the asymptotic effective Hamiltonian, which is defined by the obtained quasistationary state and is determined self-consistently. The method, to which we refer as the rearrangement formula, was suggested to give precise prediction under limited situations. Restricting initial states consisting of a spatially homogeneous part and small perturbation, we numerically reveal two conditions that the rearrangement formula prefers: One is a no Landau damping condition for the unperturbed homogeneous part, and the other comes from the Casimir invariants. Mechanisms of these conditions are discussed. Clarifying these conditions, we validate to use the rearrangement formula as the response theory for an external field, and we shed light on improving the theory as a nonequilibrium statistical mechanics.

  7. Conditional prediction intervals of wind power generation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pinson, Pierre; Kariniotakis, Georges

    2010-01-01

    A generic method for the providing of prediction intervals of wind power generation is described. Prediction intervals complement the more common wind power point forecasts, by giving a range of potential outcomes for a given probability, their so-called nominal coverage rate. Ideally they inform...... on the characteristics of prediction errors for providing conditional interval forecasts. By simultaneously generating prediction intervals with various nominal coverage rates, one obtains full predictive distributions of wind generation. Adapted resampling is applied here to the case of an onshore Danish wind farm......, for which three point forecasting methods are considered as input. The probabilistic forecasts generated are evaluated based on their reliability and sharpness, while compared to forecasts based on quantile regression and the climatology benchmark. The operational application of adapted resampling...

  8. MetWAMer: eukaryotic translation initiation site prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brendel Volker

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Translation initiation site (TIS identification is an important aspect of the gene annotation process, requisite for the accurate delineation of protein sequences from transcript data. We have developed the MetWAMer package for TIS prediction in eukaryotic open reading frames of non-viral origin. MetWAMer can be used as a stand-alone, third-party tool for post-processing gene structure annotations generated by external computational programs and/or pipelines, or directly integrated into gene structure prediction software implementations. Results MetWAMer currently implements five distinct methods for TIS prediction, the most accurate of which is a routine that combines weighted, signal-based translation initiation site scores and the contrast in coding potential of sequences flanking TISs using a perceptron. Also, our program implements clustering capabilities through use of the k-medoids algorithm, thereby enabling cluster-specific TIS parameter utilization. In practice, our static weight array matrix-based indexing method for parameter set lookup can be used with good results in data sets exhibiting moderate levels of 5'-complete coverage. Conclusion We demonstrate that improvements in statistically-based models for TIS prediction can be achieved by taking the class of each potential start-methionine into account pending certain testing conditions, and that our perceptron-based model is suitable for the TIS identification task. MetWAMer represents a well-documented, extensible, and freely available software system that can be readily re-trained for differing target applications and/or extended with existing and novel TIS prediction methods, to support further research efforts in this area.

  9. Initial predictions in learning-to-forecast experiment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C. Diks; T. Makarewicz

    2012-01-01

    In this paper we estimate the distribution of the initial predictions of the Heemeijer et al. [5] Learning-to-Forecast experiment. By design, these initial predictions were uninformed. We show that in fact they have a non-continuous distribution and that they systematically under-evaluate the fundam

  10. Prediction of Refrigerant Gas Hydrates Formation Conditions

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Deqing Liang; Ruzhu Wang; Kaihua Guo; Shuanshi Fan

    2001-01-01

    A fugacity model was developed for prediction of mixed refrigerant gas hydrates formation conditions based on the molecule congregation and solution theories. In this model, g as hydrates were regarded as non-ideal solid solution composed of water groups and guest molecules, and the expressions of fugacity of guest molecules in hydrate phase was proposed accordingly. It has been shown that the developed model can indicate successfully the effect of guest-guest molecule interaction. The results showed that the model can describe better the characteristics of phase equilibrium of mixed refrigerant gas hydrates and predictions are in good agreement with experimental data.

  11. HYCOM Initial and Boundary Conditions for Coupled COAMPS/NCOM

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-06-07

    conditions (BCs and ICs) into globally- relocatable coupled COAMPS/NCOM, (2) quantitatively evaluate HYCOM sources of ICs and BCs against other...HYCOM Initial and Boundary Conditions for Coupled COAMPS/NCOM Julie Pullen Naval Research Laboratory 7 Grace Hopper Ave. Stop 2 Monterey, CA...long-term goal of this effort is to evaluate HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) initial and boundary conditions supplied to the air-ocean coupled

  12. Influence of changes in initial conditions for the simulation of dynamic systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kotyrba, Martin [Department of Informatics and Computers, University of Ostrava, 30 dubna 22, Ostrava (Czech Republic)

    2015-03-10

    Chaos theory is a field of study in mathematics, with applications in several disciplines including meteorology, sociology, physics, engineering, economics, biology, and philosophy. Chaos theory studies the behavior of dynamical systems that are highly sensitive to initial conditions—a paradigm popularly referred to as the butterfly effect. Small differences in initial conditions field widely diverging outcomes for such dynamical systems, rendering long-term prediction impossible in general. This happens even though these systems are deterministic, meaning that their future behavior is fully determined by their initial conditions, with no random elements involved. In this paperinfluence of changes in initial conditions will be presented for the simulation of Lorenz system.

  13. Predicting adherence trajectory using initial patterns of medication filling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franklin, Jessica M; Krumme, Alexis A; Shrank, William H; Matlin, Olga S; Brennan, Troyen A; Choudhry, Niteesh K

    2015-09-01

    To evaluate the ability of initial medication dispensings to predict long-term patterns of adherence. A retrospective cohort study of statin initiators enrolled in a Medicare Part D drug plan from CVS Caremark from 2005 to 2008. We used group-based trajectory models to classify patients into 6 adherence trajectories based on patterns of statin filling over the year following therapy initiation. Baseline clinical characteristics and indicators of statin filling during the first 2 to 4 months following initiation were used to predict adherence trajectory in logistic regression models, separately within strata of the days' supply of the initial statin dispensing. Cross-validation was used to measure predictive accuracy of models in data not used for model estimation. Among 77,703 statin initiators, prediction using baseline variables only was poor (cross-validated C statistic ≤ 0.61). When using 3 months of initial adherence to predict trajectory, prediction was greatly improved among patients with an index supply ≤30 days (0.62 ≤ C ≤ 0.91). With 4 months of initial adherence in the model, prediction was strong for all patients (C ≥ 0.72), especially for the best and worst trajectories (C = 0.90 and 0.94, respectively, in patients with an index supply ≤ 30 days; and C = 0.83 and 0.90, respectively, in patients with an index supply > 30 days). Initial filling behavior strongly predicted future adherence trajectory. Predicting adherence trajectories may facilitate better targeting of interventions to patients most likely to benefit.

  14. Consistent Initial Conditions for the DNS of Compressible Turbulence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ristorcelli, J. R.; Blaisdell, G. A.

    1996-01-01

    Relationships between diverse thermodynamic quantities appropriate to weakly compressible turbulence are derived. It is shown that for turbulence of a finite turbulent Mach number there is a finite element of compressibility. A methodology for generating initial conditions for the fluctuating pressure, density and dilatational velocity is given which is consistent with finite Mach number effects. Use of these initial conditions gives rise to a smooth development of the flow, in contrast to cases in which these fields are specified arbitrarily or set to zero. Comparisons of the effect of different types of initial conditions are made using direct numerical simulation of decaying isotropic turbulence.

  15. Is soil moisture initialization important for seasonal to decadal predictions?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stacke, Tobias; Hagemann, Stefan

    2014-05-01

    The state of soil moisture can can have a significant impact on regional climate conditions for short time scales up to several months. However, focusing on seasonal to decadal time scales, it is not clear whether the predictive skill of global a Earth System Model might be enhanced by assimilating soil moisture data or improving the initial soil moisture conditions with respect to observations. As a first attempt to provide answers to this question, we set up an experiment to investigate the life time (memory) of extreme soil moisture states in the coupled land-atmosphere model ECHAM6-JSBACH, which is part of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology's Earth System Model (MPI-ESM). This experiment consists of an ensemble of 3 years simulations which are initialized with extreme wet and dry soil moisture states for different seasons and years. Instead of using common thresholds like wilting point or critical soil moisture, the extreme states were extracted from a reference simulation to ensure that they are within the range of simulated climate variability. As a prerequisite for this experiment, the soil hydrology in JSBACH was improved by replacing the bucket-type soil hydrology scheme with a multi-layer scheme. This new scheme is a more realistic representation of the soil, including percolation and diffusion fluxes between up to five separate layers, the limitation of bare soil evaporation to the uppermost soil layer and the addition of a long term water storage below the root zone in regions with deep soil. While the hydrological cycle is not strongly affected by this new scheme, it has some impact on the simulated soil moisture memory which is mostly strengthened due to the additional deep layer water storage. Ensemble statistics of the initialization experiment indicate perturbation lengths between just a few days up to several seasons for some regions. In general, the strongest effects are seen for wet initialization during northern winter over cold and humid

  16. A new equilibrium torus solution and GRMHD initial conditions

    CERN Document Server

    Penna, Robert F; Narayan, Ramesh

    2013-01-01

    General relativistic magnetohydrodynamic (GRMHD) simulations are providing influential models for black hole spin measurements, gamma ray bursts, and supermassive black hole feedback. Many of these simulations use the same initial condition: a rotating torus of fluid in hydrostatic equilibrium. A persistent concern is that simulation results sometimes depend on arbitrary features of the initial torus. For example, the Bernoulli parameter (which is related to outflows), appears to be controlled by the Bernoulli parameter of the initial torus. In this paper, we give a new equilibrium torus solution and describe two applications for the future. First, it can be used as a more physical initial condition for GRMHD simulations than earlier torus solutions. Second, it can be used in conjunction with earlier torus solutions to isolate the simulation results that depend on initial conditions. We assume axisymmetry, an ideal gas equation of state, constant entropy, and ignore self-gravity. We fix an angular momentum di...

  17. Sensitivity of a Simulated Derecho Event to Model Initial Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Wei

    2014-05-01

    Since 2003, the MMM division at NCAR has been experimenting cloud-permitting scale weather forecasting using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Over the years, we've tested different model physics, and tried different initial and boundary conditions. Not surprisingly, we found that the model's forecasts are more sensitive to the initial conditions than model physics. In 2012 real-time experiment, WRF-DART (Data Assimilation Research Testbed) at 15 km was employed to produce initial conditions for twice-a-day forecast at 3 km. On June 29, this forecast system captured one of the most destructive derecho event on record. In this presentation, we will examine forecast sensitivity to different model initial conditions, and try to understand the important features that may contribute to the success of the forecast.

  18. Persistence of Initial Conditions in Continental Scale Air Quality Simulations

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — This dataset contains the data used in Figures 1 – 6 and Table 2 of the technical note "Persistence of Initial Conditions in Continental Scale Air Quality...

  19. Hydrodynamics: Fluctuating initial conditions and two-particle correlations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andrade, R.P.G.; Grassi, F. [Instituto de Fisica, Universidade de Sao Paulo (Brazil); Hama, Y., E-mail: hama@fma.if.usp.b [Instituto de Fisica, Universidade de Sao Paulo (Brazil); Qian, W.-L. [Instituto de Fisica, Universidade de Sao Paulo (Brazil)

    2011-03-15

    Event-by-event hydrodynamics (or hydrodynamics with fluctuating initial conditions) has been developed in the past few years. Here we discuss how it may help to understand the various structures observed in two-particle correlations.

  20. New Initial Conditions for Quantum Field Simulations after a Quench

    CERN Document Server

    Salle, M; Vink, Jeroen C

    2002-01-01

    We investigate a new way of using the quantum fluctuations in the vacuum as initial conditions for subsequent classical field dynamics. This method avoids problems with renormalization and leads to better thermalization.

  1. More relaxed conditions for model predictive control with guaranteed stability

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Bin LIU; Yugeng XI

    2005-01-01

    For the model predictive controller,terminal state satisfying a certain inequality can guarantee the stability but it is somewhat conservative.In this paper,we give a more relaxed stability condition by considering the effect of the initial state.Based on that we propose an algorithm to guarantee that the closed loop system is asymptotically stable.Finally,the conclusions are verified by a simulation.

  2. Star formation in mergers with cosmologically motivated initial conditions

    CERN Document Server

    Karman, Wouter; Kannan, Rahul; Moster, Benjamin P; Somerville, Rachel S

    2015-01-01

    We use semi-analytic models and cosmological merger trees to provide the initial conditions for multi-merger numerical hydrodynamic simulations, and exploit these simulations to explore the effect of galaxy interaction and merging on star formation (SF). We compute numerical realisations of twelve merger trees from z=1.5 to z=0. We include the effects of the large hot gaseous halo around all galaxies, following recent obervations and predictions of galaxy formation models. We find that including the hot gaseous halo has a number of important effects. Firstly, as expected, the star formation rate on long timescales is increased due to cooling of the hot halo and refuelling of the cold gas reservoir. Secondly, we find that interactions do not always increase the SF in the long term. This is partially due to the orbiting galaxies transferring gravitational energy to the hot gaseous haloes and raising their temperature. Finally we find that the relative size of the starburst, when including the hot halo, is much ...

  3. Predicting biological condition in southern California streams

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Larry R.; May, Jason T.; Rehn, Andrew C.; Ode, Peter R.; Waite, Ian R.; Kennen, Jonathan G.

    2012-01-01

    As understanding of the complex relations among environmental stressors and biological responses improves, a logical next step is predictive modeling of biological condition at unsampled sites. We developed a boosted regression tree (BRT) model of biological condition, as measured by a benthic macroinvertebrate index of biotic integrity (BIBI), for streams in urbanized Southern Coastal California. We also developed a multiple linear regression (MLR) model as a benchmark for comparison with the BRT model. The BRT model explained 66% of the variance in B-IBI, identifying watershed population density and combined percentage agricultural and urban land cover in the riparian buffer as the most important predictors of B-IBI, but with watershed mean precipitation and watershed density of manmade channels also important. The MLR model explained 48% of the variance in B-IBI and included watershed population density and combined percentage agricultural and urban land cover in the riparian buffer. For a verification data set, the BRT model correctly classified 75% of impaired sites (B-IBI < 40) and 78% of unimpaired sites (B-IBI = 40). For the same verification data set, the MLR model correctly classified 69% of impaired sites and 87% of unimpaired sites. The BRT model should not be used to predict B-IBI for specific sites; however, the model can be useful for general applications such as identifying and prioritizing regions for monitoring, remediation or preservation, stratifying new bioassessments according to anticipated biological condition, or assessing the potential for change in stream biological condition based on anticipated changes in population density and development in stream buffers.

  4. Initial Conditions in the Effective Field Theory of Inflation

    CERN Document Server

    O'Connell, Ross

    2011-01-01

    Many different models of inflation give rise to the same effective field theory of the inflaton. While effective field theories in flat space provide little information about UV physics, we propose that in inflationary backgrounds a large amount of information can be encoded by the initial conditions of the effective theory. We identify conditions under which this information would remain available at late times, e.g. through observation of non-gaussianities. We also study the power spectrum of a simple set of initial conditions, and find that it is constrained by the WMAP7 results.

  5. Critical Initiation Conditions for Gaseous Diverging Spherical Detonations

    OpenAIRE

    Desbordes, D.

    1995-01-01

    The diverging spherical detonation wave in gaseous explosives is obtained either with a point source of explosion of energy E or through the transmission of a plane detonation from a cylindrical tube of diameter d into a large volume. The mechanism of detonation initiation in both cases is based on the shock to detonation transition. The experimental critical conditions lead to an initiation criterion for detonation resulting from the competition between the expansion behind the leading shock...

  6. Time domain system identification of unknown initial conditions

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SUNGWen-pei; MATZENVernonC.; SHIHMing-hsiang

    2004-01-01

    System identification is a method for using measured data to create or improve a mathematical model of the object being tested. From the measured data however, noise is noticed at the beginning of the response. One solution to avoid this noise problem is to skip the noisy data and then use the initial conditions as active parameters, to be found by using the system identification process. This paper describes the development of the equations for setting up the initial conditions as active parameters. The simulated data and response data from actual shear buildings were used to prove the accuracy of both the algorithm and the computer program, which include the initial conditions as active parameters. The numerical and experimental model analysis showed that the value of mass, stiffness and frequency were very reasonable and that the computed acceleration and measured acceleration matched very well.

  7. Initial condition strategies for multiple-time partial differential equations.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coffey, Todd Stirling

    2005-02-01

    Many highly oscillatory circuits have a wide separation of time scales between the underlying oscillation and the behavior of interest. This is particularly true of communication circuits. Multiple-time Partial Differential Equation (MPDE) methods offer substantial speed-up for these circuits by introducing a periodic artificial time variable that represents the highly oscillatory behavior. This leaves just the slowly changing behavior of interest, which can be integrated with much larger steps. One problem of particular interest is the larger initial condition that must be specified for this periodic artificial time variable. One possible solution is to formulate an optimization problem in the hopes of increasing the step sizes taken in the slow time direction. This talk will discuss one possible unconstrained optimization problem for determining this initial condition. Numerical results and comparisons to several other initial condition strategies will be presented in addition to MPDE background research and implementation issues.

  8. New initial condition of the new agegraphic dark energy model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Li Yun-He; Zhang Jing-Fei; Zhang Xin

    2013-01-01

    The initial condition Ωde (zini) =n2(1 + Zini)-2/4 at Zini =2000,widely used to solve the differential equation of the density of the new agegraphic dark energy (NADE) Ωde,makes the NADE model a single-parameter dark-energy cosmological model.However,we find that this initial condition is only applicable in a fiat universe with only dark energy and pressureless matter.In fact,in order to obtain more information from current observational data,such as the cosmic microwave background (CMB) and the baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO),we need to consider the contribution of radiation.For this situation,the initial condition mentioned above becomes invalid.To overcome this shortcoming,we investigate the evolutions of dark energy in matter-dominated and radiation-dominated epochs,and obtain a new initial condition Ωde(Zini) =n2(1 + zini)-2(1+ √F(Zini))2/4 at zini =2000,where F(z) ≡ Ωr0(1+z)/[Ωm0 + Ωr0(1 +z)] with Ωr0 and Ωm0 being the current density parameters of radiation and pressureless matter,respectively.This revised initial condition is applicable for the differential equation of Ωde obtained in the standard Friedmann-Robertson-Walker (FRW) universe with dark energy,pressureless matter,radiation,and even spatial curvature,and can still keep the NADE model as a single-parameter model.With the revised initial condition and the observational data of type Ia supernova (SNIa),CMB,and BAO,we finally constrain the NADE model.The results show that the single free parameter n of the NADE model can be constrained tightly.

  9. Wave packets and initial conditions in quantum cosmology

    CERN Document Server

    Gousheh, S S

    2000-01-01

    We discuss the construction of wave packets resulting from the solutions of a class of Wheeler-DeWitt equations in Robertson-Walker type cosmologies. We present an ansatz for the initial conditions which leads to a unique determination of the expansion coefficients in the construction of the wave packets with probability distributions which, in an interesting contrast to some of the earlier works, agree well with all possible classical paths. The possible relationship between these initial conditions and signature transition in the context of classical cosmology is also discussed.

  10. Initialized near-term regional climate change prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doblas-Reyes, F J; Andreu-Burillo, I; Chikamoto, Y; García-Serrano, J; Guemas, V; Kimoto, M; Mochizuki, T; Rodrigues, L R L; van Oldenborgh, G J

    2013-01-01

    Climate models are seen by many to be unverifiable. However, near-term climate predictions up to 10 years into the future carried out recently with these models can be rigorously verified against observations. Near-term climate prediction is a new information tool for the climate adaptation and service communities, which often make decisions on near-term time scales, and for which the most basic information is unfortunately very scarce. The Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project set of co-ordinated climate-model experiments includes a set of near-term predictions in which several modelling groups participated and whose forecast quality we illustrate here. We show that climate forecast systems have skill in predicting the Earth's temperature at regional scales over the past 50 years and illustrate the trustworthiness of their predictions. Most of the skill can be attributed to changes in atmospheric composition, but also partly to the initialization of the predictions.

  11. Theoretical model for forming limit diagram predictions without initial inhomogeneity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gologanu, Mihai; Comsa, Dan Sorin; Banabic, Dorel

    2013-05-01

    the plane-strain case the limit-analysis model predicts almost instantaneous necking but in the next step the virtual band hardens enough to deactivate the localization condition. In this case we apply a supplementary condition for incipient necking similar to the one used in Hill's model for the second quadrant. We show that this condition is precisely the one for incipient bifurcation inside the virtual (and weaker) band. Finally we discuss some limitations, extensions and possible applications of the new necking model based on limit analysis.

  12. Star formation in mergers with comologically motivated initial conditions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Karman, Wouter; Macciò, Andrea V.; Kannan, Rahul; Moster, Benjamin P.; Somerville, Rachel S.

    2015-01-01

    We use semi-analytic models and cosmological merger trees to provide the initial conditions for multimerger numerical hydrodynamic simulations, and exploit these simulations to explore the effect of galaxy interaction and merging on star formation (SF). We compute numerical realizations of 12 merger

  13. Star formation in mergers with cosmologically motivated initial conditions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Karman, Wouter; Macciò, Andrea V.; Kannan, Rahul; Moster, Benjamin P.; Somerville, Rachel S.

    2015-01-01

    We use semi-analytic models and cosmological merger trees to provide the initial conditions for multimerger numerical hydrodynamic simulations, and exploit these simulations to explore the effect of galaxy interaction and merging on star formation (SF). We compute numerical realizations of 12 merger

  14. On initial condition of the new agegraphic dark energy model

    CERN Document Server

    Li, Yun-He; Zhang, Xin

    2012-01-01

    The initial condition $\\Omega_{\\rm de}(z_{\\rm ini})=n^2(1+z_{\\rm ini})^{-2}/4$ at $z_{\\rm ini}=2000$ widely used to solve the differential equation of $\\Omega_{\\rm de}$, the density of the new agegraphic dark energy (NADE), makes the NADE model be a single-parameter dark-energy cosmological model. However, this initial condition, we find, is only applicable in a flat universe with only dark energy and pressureless matter. In fact, in order to obtain more information from current observational data, such as cosmic microwave background (CMB) and baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO), it often needs us to consider the contribution of radiation. For this situation, the initial condition mentioned above becomes invalid. To overcome this shortage, we deeply investigate the evolution of NADE in the matter-dominated and radiation-dominated epochs, and obtain a new initial condition $\\Omega_{\\rm de}(z_{\\rm ini}) = \\frac{n^2(1+z_{\\rm ini})^{-2}}{4} (1+\\sqrt{F(z_{\\rm ini})})^2$ at $z_{\\rm ini}=2000$. Here $F(z)\\equiv\\frac{...

  15. Linear stochastic differential equations with anticipating initial conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Khalifa, Narjess; Kuo, Hui-Hsiung; Ouerdiane, Habib

    In this paper we use the new stochastic integral introduced by Ayed and Kuo (2008) and the results obtained by Kuo et al. (2012b) to find a solution to a drift-free linear stochastic differential equation with anticipating initial condition. Our solution is based on well-known results from...

  16. Initial value predictability of intrinsic oceanic modes and implications for decadal prediction over North America

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Branstator, Grant [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)

    2014-12-09

    The overall aim of our project was to quantify and characterize predictability of the climate as it pertains to decadal time scale predictions. By predictability we mean the degree to which a climate forecast can be distinguished from the climate that exists at initial forecast time, taking into consideration the growth of uncertainty that occurs as a result of the climate system being chaotic. In our project we were especially interested in predictability that arises from initializing forecasts from some specific state though we also contrast this predictability with predictability arising from forecasting the reaction of the system to external forcing – for example changes in greenhouse gas concentration. Also, we put special emphasis on the predictability of prominent intrinsic patterns of the system because they often dominate system behavior. Highlights from this work include: • Development of novel methods for estimating the predictability of climate forecast models. • Quantification of the initial value predictability limits of ocean heat content and the overturning circulation in the Atlantic as they are represented in various state of the art climate models. These limits varied substantially from model to model but on average were about a decade with North Atlantic heat content tending to be more predictable than North Pacific heat content. • Comparison of predictability resulting from knowledge of the current state of the climate system with predictability resulting from estimates of how the climate system will react to changes in greenhouse gas concentrations. It turned out that knowledge of the initial state produces a larger impact on forecasts for the first 5 to 10 years of projections. • Estimation of the predictability of dominant patterns of ocean variability including well-known patterns of variability in the North Pacific and North Atlantic. For the most part these patterns were predictable for 5 to 10 years. • Determination of

  17. Relative Influence of Initial Surface and Atmospheric Conditions on Seasonal Water and Energy Balances

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oglesby, Robert J.; Marshall, Susan; Roads, John O.; Robertson, Franklin R.; Goodman, H. Michael (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    We constructed and analyzed wet and dry soil moisture composites for the mid-latitude GCIP region of the central US using long climate model simulations made with the NCAR CCM3 and reanalysis products from NCEP. Using the diagnostic composites as a guide, we have completed a series of predictability experiments in which we imposed soil water initial conditions in CCM3 for the GCIP region for June 1 from anomalously wet and dry years, with atmospheric initial conditions taken from June 1 of a year with 'near-normal' soil water, and initial soil water from the near-normal year and atmospheric initial conditions from the wet and dry years. Preliminary results indicate that the initial state of the atmosphere is more important than the initial state of soil water determining the subsequent late spring and summer evolution of sod water over the GCIP region. Surprisingly, neither the composites or the predictability experiments yielded a strong influence of soil moisture on the atmosphere. To explore this further, we have made runs with extreme dry soil moisture initial anomalies imposed over the GCIP region (the soil close to being completely dry). These runs did yield a very strong effect on the atmosphere that persisted for at least three months. We conclude that the magnitude of the initial soil moisture anomaly is crucial, at least in CCM3, and are currently investigating whether a threshold exists, below which little impact is seen. In a complementary study, we compared the impact of the initial condition of snow cover versus the initial atmospheric state over the western US (corresponding to the westward extension of the GAPP program follow-on to GCIP). In this case, the initial prescription of snow cover is far more important than the initial atmospheric state in determining the subsequent evolution of snow cover. We are currently working to understand the very different soil water and snow cover results.

  18. Initial Integration of Noise Prediction Tools for Acoustic Scattering Effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nark, Douglas M.; Burley, Casey L.; Tinetti, Ana; Rawls, John W.

    2008-01-01

    This effort provides an initial glimpse at NASA capabilities available in predicting the scattering of fan noise from a non-conventional aircraft configuration. The Aircraft NOise Prediction Program, Fast Scattering Code, and the Rotorcraft Noise Model were coupled to provide increased fidelity models of scattering effects on engine fan noise sources. The integration of these codes led to the identification of several keys issues entailed in applying such multi-fidelity approaches. In particular, for prediction at noise certification points, the inclusion of distributed sources leads to complications with the source semi-sphere approach. Computational resource requirements limit the use of the higher fidelity scattering code to predict radiated sound pressure levels for full scale configurations at relevant frequencies. And, the ability to more accurately represent complex shielding surfaces in current lower fidelity models is necessary for general application to scattering predictions. This initial step in determining the potential benefits/costs of these new methods over the existing capabilities illustrates a number of the issues that must be addressed in the development of next generation aircraft system noise prediction tools.

  19. Regimes of chemical reaction waves initiated by nonuniform initial conditions for detailed chemical reaction models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liberman, M A; Kiverin, A D; Ivanov, M F

    2012-05-01

    Regimes of chemical reaction wave propagation initiated by initial temperature nonuniformity in gaseous mixtures, whose chemistry is governed by chain-branching kinetics, are studied using a multispecies transport model and a detailed chemical model. Possible regimes of reaction wave propagation are identified for stoichiometric hydrogen-oxygen and hydrogen-air mixtures in a wide range of initial pressures and temperature levels, depending on the initial non-uniformity steepness. The limits of the regimes of reaction wave propagation depend upon the values of the spontaneous wave speed and the characteristic velocities of the problem. It is shown that one-step kinetics cannot reproduce either quantitative neither qualitative features of the ignition process in real gaseous mixtures because the difference between the induction time and the time when the exothermic reaction begins significantly affects the ignition, evolution, and coupling of the spontaneous reaction wave and the pressure wave, especially at lower temperatures. We show that all the regimes initiated by the temperature gradient occur for much shallower temperature gradients than predicted by a one-step model. The difference is very large for lower initial pressures and for slowly reacting mixtures. In this way the paper provides an answer to questions, important in practice, about the ignition energy, its distribution, and the scale of the initial nonuniformity required for ignition in one or another regime of combustion wave propagation.

  20. Accurate initial conditions in mixed Dark Matter--Baryon simulations

    CERN Document Server

    Valkenburg, Wessel

    2016-01-01

    We quantify the error in the results of mixed baryon--dark-matter hydrodynamic simulations, stemming from outdated approximations for the generation of initial conditions. The error at redshift 0 in contemporary large simulations, is of the order of few to ten percent in the power spectra of baryons and dark matter, and their combined total-matter power spectrum. After describing how to properly assign initial displacements and peculiar velocities to multiple species, we review several approximations: (1) {using the total-matter power spectrum to compute displacements and peculiar velocities of both fluids}, (2) scaling the linear redshift-zero power spectrum back to the initial power spectrum using the Newtonian growth factor ignoring homogeneous radiation, (3) using longitudinal-gauge velocities with synchronous-gauge densities, and (4) ignoring the phase-difference in the Fourier modes for the offset baryon grid, relative to the dark-matter grid. Three of these approximations do not take into account that ...

  1. Bayesian recovery of the initial condition for the heat equation

    CERN Document Server

    Knapik, B T; van Zanten, J H

    2011-01-01

    We study a Bayesian approach to recovering the initial condition for the heat equation from noisy observations of the solution at a later time. We consider a class of prior distributions indexed by a parameter quantifying "smoothness" and show that the corresponding posterior distributions contract around the true parameter at a rate that depends on the smoothness of the true initial condition and the smoothness and scale of the prior. Correct combinations of these characteristics lead to the optimal minimax rate. One type of priors leads to a rate-adaptive Bayesian procedure. The frequentist coverage of credible sets is shown to depend on the combination of the prior and true parameter as well, with smoother priors leading to zero coverage and rougher priors to (extremely) conservative results. In the latter case credible sets are much larger than frequentist confidence sets, in that the ratio of diameters diverges to infinity. The results are numerically illustrated by a simulated data example.

  2. Persistence of initial conditions in continental scale air quality ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    This study investigates the effect of initial conditions (IC) for pollutant concentrations in the atmosphere and soil on simulated air quality for two continental-scale Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model applications. One of these applications was performed for springtime and the second for summertime. Results show that a spin-up period of ten days commonly used in regional-scale applications may not be sufficient to reduce the effects of initial conditions to less than 1% of seasonally-averaged surface ozone concentrations everywhere while 20 days were found to be sufficient for the entire domain for the spring case and almost the entire domain for the summer case. For the summer case, differences were found to persist longer aloft due to circulation of air masses and even a spin-up period of 30 days was not sufficient to reduce the effects of ICs to less than 1% of seasonally-averaged layer 34 ozone concentrations over the southwestern portion of the modeling domain. Analysis of the effect of soil initial conditions for the CMAQ bidirectional NH3 exchange model shows that during springtime they can have an important effect on simulated inorganic aerosols concentrations for time periods of one month or longer. The effects are less pronounced during other seasons. The results, while specific to the modeling domain and time periods simulated here, suggest that modeling protocols need to be scrutinized for a given application and that it cannot be assum

  3. On the Initial Conditions of the Nice Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Batygin, Konstantin; Brown, M. E.

    2009-09-01

    In the recent years, the "Nice” model of solar system formation has attained an unprecedented level of success in reproducing much of the observed orbital architecture of the Kuiper belt, while evolving the planets to their current locations from a more compact configuration (Tsiaganis et al 2005; Levison et al 2007). Within the context of this model, the formation of the classical Kuiper Belt requires a phase during which the ice giants have a high eccentricity. An outstanding question of this model is the initial condition from which the Solar System started out. Recent work (Morbidelli et al 2007) has shown that multi-resonant initial conditions can serve as good candidates, as they naturally prevent vigorous type-II migration. We performed a large number of self-consisted numerical N-body simulations with an eye towards identification of multi-resonant initial conditions which result in an eccentric phase of the ice giants. The results should prove useful in further development of a comprehensive model for solar system formation.

  4. Impact of sea ice initialization on sea ice and atmosphere prediction skill on seasonal timescales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guemas, V.; Chevallier, M.; Déqué, M.; Bellprat, O.; Doblas-Reyes, F.

    2016-04-01

    We present a robust assessment of the impact of sea ice initialization from reconstructions of the real state on the sea ice and atmosphere prediction skill. We ran two ensemble seasonal prediction experiments from 1979 to 2012 : one using realistic sea ice initial conditions and another where sea ice is initialized from a climatology, with two forecast systems. During the melting season in the Arctic Ocean, sea ice forecasts become skilful with sea ice initialization until 3-5 months ahead, thanks to the memory held by sea ice thickness. During the freezing season in both the Arctic and Antarctic Oceans, sea ice forecasts are skilful for 7 and 2 months, respectively, with negligible differences between the two experiments, the memory being held by the ocean heat content. A weak impact on the atmosphere prediction skill is obtained.

  5. Persistence of initial conditions in continental scale air quality simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hogrefe, Christian; Roselle, Shawn J.; Bash, Jesse O.

    2017-07-01

    This study investigates the effect of initial conditions (IC) for pollutant concentrations in the atmosphere and soil on simulated air quality for two continental-scale Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model applications. One of these applications was performed for springtime and the second for summertime. Results show that a spin-up period of ten days commonly used in regional-scale applications may not be sufficient to reduce the effects of initial conditions to less than 1% of seasonally-averaged surface ozone concentrations everywhere while 20 days were found to be sufficient for the entire domain for the spring case and almost the entire domain for the summer case. For the summer case, differences were found to persist longer aloft due to circulation of air masses and even a spin-up period of 30 days was not sufficient to reduce the effects of ICs to less than 1% of seasonally-averaged layer 34 ozone concentrations over the southwestern portion of the modeling domain. Analysis of the effect of soil initial conditions for the CMAQ bidirectional NH3 exchange model shows that during springtime they can have an important effect on simulated inorganic aerosols concentrations for time periods of one month or longer. The effects are less pronounced during other seasons. The results, while specific to the modeling domain and time periods simulated here, suggest that modeling protocols need to be scrutinized for a given application and that it cannot be assumed that commonly-used spin-up periods are necessarily sufficient to reduce the effects of initial conditions on model results to an acceptable level. What constitutes an acceptable level of difference cannot be generalized and will depend on the particular application, time period and species of interest. Moreover, as the application of air quality models is being expanded to cover larger geographical domains and as these models are increasingly being coupled with other modeling systems to better represent

  6. Elliptic Flow from Nonequilibrium Color Glass Condensate Initial Conditions

    CERN Document Server

    Ruggieri, M; Plumari, S; Greco, V

    2013-01-01

    A current goal of relativistic heavy ion collisions experiments is the search for a Color Glass Condensate as the limiting state of QCD matter at very high density. In viscous hydrodynamics simulations, a standard Glauber initial condition leads to estimate $4\\pi \\eta/s \\sim 1$, while a Color Glass Condensate modeling leads to at least a factor of 2 larger $\\eta/s$. Within a kinetic theory approach based on a relativistic Boltzmann-like transport simulation, we point out that the out-of-equilibrium initial distribution proper of a Color Glass Condensate reduces the efficiency in building-up the elliptic flow. Our main result at RHIC energy is that the available data on $v_2$ are in agreement with a $4\\pi \\eta/s \\sim 1$ also for Color Glass Condensate initial conditions, opening the possibility to describe self-consistently also higher order flow, otherwise significantly underestimated, and to pursue further the search for signatures of the Color Glass Condensate.

  7. The NIF Shear Experiment: Emergent Coherent Structures and Initial Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flippo, K. A.; Doss, F. W.; Merritt, E. C.; di Stefano, C. A.; Devolder, B. G.; Kurien, S.; Kot, L.; Loomis, E. N.; Murphy, T. J.; Perry, T. S.; Kline, J. L.; Huntington, C. M.; Nagel, S. R.; MacLaren, S. A.; Schmidt, D. W.

    2016-10-01

    The NIF Shear experiments are designed to stress turbulence models at high Atwood numbers, high convective Mach number, and in a highly compressible regime. The NIF laser system is used to drive two hohlraums on either end of the experiment, which convert the laser drive into a bath of soft x-rays, 250eV in temperature. The counter-propagating shocks and flow, pressure balance the shear layer, such that it can grow due to the KH instability in the center of the experiment for 20 ns. These experiments are the first High Energy Density (HED) hydro-instability studies to show emergent coherent Kelvin-Helmholtz (KH) structures arising from random broadband seeds, and the first to control the phenomenological evolution of the tracer layer by controlling the initial surface roughness conditions. The change in initial conditions forces the system evolution on a different path that does not appear to reach a universal nor self-similar state by the end of the experiment. The experiment was modeled using the multi-physics hydrodynamic code RAGE with the BHR turbulence model. The initial scale-length of the model is modified to match the data. When the model is turned off, the pure hydrodynamics do not capture the behavior of the mixing layer and cannot match the data.

  8. Conditional prediction intervals of wind power generation

    OpenAIRE

    Pinson, Pierre; Kariniotakis, Georges

    2010-01-01

    A generic method for the providing of prediction intervals of wind power generation is described. Prediction intervals complement the more common wind power point forecasts, by giving a range of potential outcomes for a given probability, their so-called nominal coverage rate. Ideally they inform of the situation-specific uncertainty of point forecasts. In order to avoid a restrictive assumption on the shape of forecast error distributions, focus is given to an empirical and nonparametric app...

  9. Gene and translation initiation site prediction in metagenomic sequences

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hyatt, Philip Douglas [ORNL; LoCascio, Philip F [ORNL; Hauser, Loren John [ORNL; Uberbacher, Edward C [ORNL

    2012-01-01

    Gene prediction in metagenomic sequences remains a difficult problem. Current sequencing technologies do not achieve sufficient coverage to assemble the individual genomes in a typical sample; consequently, sequencing runs produce a large number of short sequences whose exact origin is unknown. Since these sequences are usually smaller than the average length of a gene, algorithms must make predictions based on very little data. We present MetaProdigal, a metagenomic version of the gene prediction program Prodigal, that can identify genes in short, anonymous coding sequences with a high degree of accuracy. The novel value of the method consists of enhanced translation initiation site identification, ability to identify sequences that use alternate genetic codes and confidence values for each gene call. We compare the results of MetaProdigal with other methods and conclude with a discussion of future improvements.

  10. Can the baryon asymmetry arise from initial conditions?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krnjaic, Gordan

    2017-08-01

    In this paper, we quantify the challenge of explaining the baryon asymmetry using initial conditions in a universe that undergoes inflation. Contrary to lore, we find that such an explanation is possible if net B -L number is stored in a light bosonic field with hyper-Planckian initial displacement and a delicately chosen field velocity prior to inflation. However, such a construction may require extremely tuned coupling constants to ensure that this asymmetry is viably communicated to the Standard Model after reheating; the large field displacement required to overcome inflationary dilution must not induce masses for Standard Model particles or generate dangerous washout processes. While these features are inelegant, this counterexample nonetheless shows that there is no theorem against such an explanation. We also comment on potential observables in the double β -decay spectrum and on model variations that may allow for more natural realizations.

  11. Can the Baryon Asymmetry Arise From Initial Conditions?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Krnjaic, Gordan [Fermilab

    2016-06-16

    In this letter, we quantify the challenge of explaining the baryon asymmetry using initial conditions in a universe that undergoes inflation. Contrary to lore, we find that such an explanation is possible if net $B-L$ number is stored in a light bosonic field with hyper-Planckian initial displacement and a delicately chosen field velocity prior to inflation. However, such a construction may require extremely tuned coupling constants to ensure that this asymmetry is viably communicated to the Standard Model after reheating; the large field displacement required to overcome inflationary dilution must not induce masses for Standard Model particles or generate dangerous washout processes. While these features are inelegant, this counterexample nonetheless shows that there is no theorem against such an explanation. We also comment on potential observables in the double $\\beta$-decay spectrum and on model variations that may allow for more natural realizations.

  12. Can the Baryon Asymmetry Arise From Initial Conditions?

    CERN Document Server

    Krnjaic, Gordan

    2016-01-01

    In this letter, we quantify the challenge of explaining the baryon asymmetry using initial conditions in a universe that undergoes inflation. Contrary to lore, we find that such an explanation is possible if net $B-L$ number is stored in a light bosonic field with hyper-Planckian initial displacement and a delicately chosen field velocity prior to inflation. However, such a construction may require extremely tuned coupling constants to ensure that this asymmetry is viably communicated to the Standard Model after reheating; the large field displacement required to overcome inflationary dilution must not induce masses for Standard Model particles or generate dangerous washout processes. While these features are inelegant, this counterexample nonetheless shows that there is no theorem against such an explanation. We also comment on potential observables in the double $\\beta$-decay spectrum and on model variations that may allow for more natural realizations.

  13. Bootstrapping from inflationary magnetogenesis to CMB initial conditions

    CERN Document Server

    Giovannini, Massimo

    2013-01-01

    The temperature and polarization anisotropies of the Cosmic Microwave Background are analyzed under the hypothesis that the same inflationary seed accounting for protogalactic magnetism also affects the Einstein-Boltzmann hierarchy whose initial conditions are assigned for typical correlation scales larger than the Hubble radius after matter-radiation equality but before decoupling. Since the primordial gauge spectrum depends on a combination of pivotal parameters of the concordance model, the angular power spectra of the temperature and of the polarization are computed, for the first time, in the presence of a putative large-scale magnetic field of inflationary origin and without supplementary hypotheses.

  14. Generating optimal initial conditions for smooth particle hydrodynamics (SPH) simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Diehl, Steven [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Rockefeller, Gabriel M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Fryer, Christopher L [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2008-01-01

    We present a new optimal method to set up initial conditions for Smooth Particle Hydrodynamics Simulations, which may also be of interest for N-body simulations. This new method is based on weighted Voronoi tesselations (WVTs) and can meet arbitrarily complex spatial resolution requirements. We conduct a comprehensive review of existing SPH setup methods, and outline their advantages, limitations and drawbacks. A serial version of our WVT setup method is publicly available and we give detailed instruction on how to easily implement the new method on top of an existing parallel SPH code.

  15. Predicting Covariance Matrices with Financial Conditions Indexes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A. Opschoor (Anne); D.J.C. van Dijk (Dick); M. van der Wel (Michel)

    2013-01-01

    textabstractWe model the impact of financial conditions on asset market volatility and correlation. We propose extensions of (factor-)GARCH models for volatility and DCC models for correlation that allow for including indexes that measure financial conditions. In our empirical application we

  16. Predicting Covariance Matrices with Financial Conditions Indexes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A. Opschoor (Anne); D.J.C. van Dijk (Dick); M. van der Wel (Michel)

    2013-01-01

    textabstractWe model the impact of financial conditions on asset market volatility and correlation. We propose extensions of (factor-)GARCH models for volatility and DCC models for correlation that allow for including indexes that measure financial conditions. In our empirical application we conside

  17. The initial physical conditions of Kepler-36 b & c

    CERN Document Server

    Owen, James E

    2015-01-01

    The Kepler-36 planetary system consists of two exoplanets at similar separations (0.115 & 0.128 AU), which have dramatically different densities. The inner planet has a density consistent with an Earth-like composition, while the outer planet is extremely low-density, such that it must contain a voluminous H/He envelope. Such a density difference would pose a problem for any formation mechanism if their current densities were representative of their composition at formation. However, both planets are at close enough separations to have undergone significant evaporation in the past. We constrain the core mass, core composition, initial envelope mass, and initial cooling time of each planet using evaporation models conditioned on their present-day masses and radii, as inferred from Kepler photometry and transit timing analysis. The inner planet is consistent with being an evaporatively stripped core, while the outer planet has retained some of its initial envelope due to its higher core mass. Therefore, bot...

  18. Accurate initial conditions in mixed dark matter-baryon simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valkenburg, Wessel; Villaescusa-Navarro, Francisco

    2017-06-01

    We quantify the error in the results of mixed baryon-dark-matter hydrodynamic simulations, stemming from outdated approximations for the generation of initial conditions. The error at redshift 0 in contemporary large simulations is of the order of few to 10 per cent in the power spectra of baryons and dark matter, and their combined total-matter power spectrum. After describing how to properly assign initial displacements and peculiar velocities to multiple species, we review several approximations: (1) using the total-matter power spectrum to compute displacements and peculiar velocities of both fluids, (2) scaling the linear redshift-zero power spectrum back to the initial power spectrum using the Newtonian growth factor ignoring homogeneous radiation, (3) using a mix of general-relativistic gauges so as to approximate Newtonian gravity, namely longitudinal-gauge velocities with synchronous-gauge densities and (4) ignoring the phase-difference in the Fourier modes for the offset baryon grid, relative to the dark-matter grid. Three of these approximations do not take into account that dark matter and baryons experience a scale-dependent growth after photon decoupling, which results in directions of velocity that are not the same as their direction of displacement. We compare the outcome of hydrodynamic simulations with these four approximations to our reference simulation, all setup with the same random seed and simulated using gadget-III.

  19. Analysis of optimal initial glide conditions for hypersonic glide vehicles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yan Xiaodong

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Hypersonic glide vehicles (HGVs are launched by a solid booster and glide through the atmosphere at high speeds. HGVs will be important means for rapid long-range delivery in the future. Given that the glide is unpowered, the initial glide conditions (IGCs are crucial for flight. This paper aims to find the optimal IGCs to improve the maneuverability and decrease the constraints of HGVs. By considering the IGCs as experiment factors, we design an orthogonal table with three factors that have five levels each by using the orthogonal experimental design method. Thereafter, we apply the Gauss pseudospectral method to perform glide trajectory optimization by using each test of the orthogonal table as the initial condition. Based on the analytic hierarchy process, an integrated indicator is established to evaluate the IGCs, which synthesizes the indexes of the maneuverability and constraints. The integrated indicator is calculated from the trajectory optimization results. Finally, optimal IGCs and valuable conclusions are obtained by using range analysis, variance analysis, and regression analysis on the integrated indicator.

  20. Quantifying uncertainty in Gulf of Mexico forecasts stemming from uncertain initial conditions

    KAUST Repository

    Iskandarani, Mohamed

    2016-06-09

    Polynomial Chaos (PC) methods are used to quantify the impacts of initial conditions uncertainties on oceanic forecasts of the Gulf of Mexico circulation. Empirical Orthogonal Functions are used as initial conditions perturbations with their modal amplitudes considered as uniformly distributed uncertain random variables. These perturbations impact primarily the Loop Current system and several frontal eddies located in its vicinity. A small ensemble is used to sample the space of the modal amplitudes and to construct a surrogate for the evolution of the model predictions via a nonintrusive Galerkin projection. The analysis of the surrogate yields verification measures for the surrogate\\'s reliability and statistical information for the model output. A variance analysis indicates that the sea surface height predictability in the vicinity of the Loop Current is limited to about 20 days. © 2016. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.

  1. Quantifying uncertainty in Gulf of Mexico forecasts stemming from uncertain initial conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iskandarani, Mohamed; Le Hénaff, Matthieu; Thacker, William Carlisle; Srinivasan, Ashwanth; Knio, Omar M.

    2016-07-01

    Polynomial Chaos (PC) methods are used to quantify the impacts of initial conditions uncertainties on oceanic forecasts of the Gulf of Mexico circulation. Empirical Orthogonal Functions are used as initial conditions perturbations with their modal amplitudes considered as uniformly distributed uncertain random variables. These perturbations impact primarily the Loop Current system and several frontal eddies located in its vicinity. A small ensemble is used to sample the space of the modal amplitudes and to construct a surrogate for the evolution of the model predictions via a nonintrusive Galerkin projection. The analysis of the surrogate yields verification measures for the surrogate's reliability and statistical information for the model output. A variance analysis indicates that the sea surface height predictability in the vicinity of the Loop Current is limited to about 20 days.

  2. Predicting Comorbid Conditions and Trajectories using Social Health Records.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ji, Xiang; Ae Chun, Soon; Geller, James

    2016-05-05

    Many patients suffer from comorbidity conditions, for example, obese patients often develop type-2 diabetes and hypertension. In the US, 80% of Medicare spending is for managing patients with these multiple coexisting conditions. Predicting potential comorbidity conditions for an individual patient can promote preventive care and reduce costs. Predicting possible comorbidity progression paths can provide important insights into population heath and aid with decisions in public health policies. Discovering the comorbidity relationships is complex and difficult, due to limited access to Electronic Health Records by privacy laws. In this paper, we present a collaborative comorbidity prediction method to predict likely comorbid conditions for individual patients, and a trajectory prediction graph model to reveal progression paths of comorbid conditions. Our prediction approaches utilize patient generated health reports on online social media, called Social Health Records (SHR). The experimental results based on one SHR source show that our method is able to predict future comorbid conditions for a patient with coverage values of 48% and 75% for a top-20 and a top-100 ranked list, respectively. For risk trajectory prediction, our approach is able to reveal each potential progression trajectory between any two conditions and infer the confidence of the future trajectory, given any observed condition. The predicted trajectories are validated with existing comorbidity relations from the medical literature.

  3. Predicting Road Conditions with Internet Search.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Askitas, Nikolaos

    2016-01-01

    Traffic congestion is an important problem both on an individual and on a societal level and much research has been done to explain and prevent their emergence. There are currently many systems which provide a reasonably good picture of actual road traffic by employing either fixed measurement points on highways or so called "floating car data" i.e. by using velocity and location data from roaming, networked, GPS enabled members of traffic. Some of these systems also offer forecasting of road conditions based on such historical data. To my knowledge there is as yet no system which offers advance notice on road conditions based on a signal which is guaranteed to occur in advance of these conditions and this is the novelty of this paper. Google Search intensity for the German word stau (i.e. traffic jam) peaks 2 hours ahead of the number of traffic jam reports as reported by the ADAC, a well known German automobile club and the largest of its kind in Europe. This is true both in the morning (7 am to 9 am) and in the evening (4 pm to 6 pm). The main result of this paper is then that after controlling for time-of-day and day-of-week effects we can still explain a significant additional portion of the variation of the number of traffic jam reports with Google Trends and we can thus explain well over 80% of the variation of road conditions using Google search activity. A one percent increase in Google stau searches implies a .4 percent increase of traffic jams. Our paper is a proof of concept that aggregate, timely delivered behavioural data can help fine tune modern societies and prompts for more research with better, more disaggregated data in order to also achieve practical solutions.

  4. Predicting Road Conditions with Internet Search

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-01-01

    Traffic congestion is an important problem both on an individual and on a societal level and much research has been done to explain and prevent their emergence. There are currently many systems which provide a reasonably good picture of actual road traffic by employing either fixed measurement points on highways or so called “floating car data” i.e. by using velocity and location data from roaming, networked, GPS enabled members of traffic. Some of these systems also offer forecasting of road conditions based on such historical data. To my knowledge there is as yet no system which offers advance notice on road conditions based on a signal which is guaranteed to occur in advance of these conditions and this is the novelty of this paper. Google Search intensity for the German word stau (i.e. traffic jam) peaks 2 hours ahead of the number of traffic jam reports as reported by the ADAC, a well known German automobile club and the largest of its kind in Europe. This is true both in the morning (7 am to 9 am) and in the evening (4 pm to 6 pm). The main result of this paper is then that after controlling for time-of-day and day-of-week effects we can still explain a significant additional portion of the variation of the number of traffic jam reports with Google Trends and we can thus explain well over 80% of the variation of road conditions using Google search activity. A one percent increase in Google stau searches implies a .4 percent increase of traffic jams. Our paper is a proof of concept that aggregate, timely delivered behavioural data can help fine tune modern societies and prompts for more research with better, more disaggregated data in order to also achieve practical solutions. PMID:27571518

  5. The Influence of Initial and Boundary Conditions on Gaseous Detonation Waves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1985-09-01

    controller. UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED 59. Once introduced into the test volume, the fuel was mixed with initial ambient air using a multipath...agreement with the prediction. If the data of these authors are increased by an additional 10% to account for the difference in ambient pressures at DRES...i.e., w2 ;) wl). In essence, we would repeat the experiment carried out by Dabora. Havig done so, the critical condition would then be monitoreo in

  6. Improving Initial Conditions for Cosmological $N$-Body Simulations

    CERN Document Server

    Garrison, Lehman H; Ferrer, Douglas; Metchnik, Marc V; Pinto, Philip A

    2016-01-01

    In cosmological $N$-body simulations, the representation of dark matter as discrete "macroparticles" suppresses the growth of structure. This effect occurs even on scales many times larger than the particle spacing; for example, modes above $k_{\\rm Nyquist}/4$ inherit a 1 to 3% error in the matter power spectrum at $z=1$. Particle linear theory (PLT) (Marcos et al. 2006) analytically describes this effect for particle lattices and reveals that the continuum growing modes are not the proper lattice growing modes, which excites transient power. We develop initial conditions with the correct growing modes and additionally rescale these modes to account for growth suppression. We also introduce a scheme for computing second-order Lagrangian perturbation theory (2LPT) from direct force calculations without using Fourier transforms. We test rescaling and our 2LPT by comparing the $z=1$ haloes and power spectra with those of an oversampled reference simulation. The combination of rescaling and 2LPT achieves 1% accur...

  7. Cosmics cosmological initial conditions and microwave anisotropy codes

    CERN Document Server

    Bertschinger, E

    1995-01-01

    COSMICS is a package of fortran programs useful for computing transfer functions and microwave background anisotropy for cosmological models, and for generating gaussian random initial conditions for nonlinear structure formation simulations of such models. Four programs are provided: {\\bf linger\\_con} and {\\bf linger\\_syn} integrate the linearized equations of general relativity, matter, and radiation in conformal Newtonian and synchronous gauge, respectively; {\\bf deltat} integrates the photon transfer functions computed by the linger codes to produce photon anisotropy power spectra; and {\\bf grafic} tabulates normalized matter power spectra and produces constrained or unconstrained samples of the matter density field. Version 1.0 of COSMICS is available at http://arcturus.mit.edu/cosmics/ . The current release gives fortran-77 programs that run on workstations and vectorized supercomputers. Unix makefiles are included that make it simple to build and test the package. A future release will include portable...

  8. Does Inflation Provide Natural Initial Conditions for the Universe?

    CERN Document Server

    Carroll, S M; Carroll, Sean M.; Chen, Jennifer

    2005-01-01

    If our universe underwent inflation, its entropy during the inflationary phase was substantially lower than it is today. Because a low-entropy state is less likely to be chosen randomly than a high-entropy one, inflation is unlikely to arise through randomly-chosen initial conditions. To resolve this puzzle, we examine the notion of a natural state for the universe, and argue that it is a nearly-empty spacetime. If empty space has a small vacuum energy, however, inflation can begin spontaneously in this background. This scenario explains why a universe like ours is likely to have begun via a period of inflation, and also provides an origin for the cosmological arrow of time.

  9. THE SIGNATURE OF INITIAL CONDITIONS ON MAGNETOHYDRODYNAMIC TURBULENCE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dallas, V.; Alexakis, A., E-mail: vdallas@lps.ens.fr, E-mail: alexakis@lps.ens.fr [Laboratoire de Physique Statistique, École Normale Supérieure, Université Pierre et Marié Curie, Université Paris Diderot, CNRS, 24 rue Lhomond, F-75005 Paris (France)

    2014-06-20

    We demonstrate that the initial correlation between velocity and current density fluctuations can lead to the formation of enormous current sheets in freely evolving magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) turbulence. These coherent structures are observed at the peak of the energy dissipation rate and are the carriers of long-range correlations despite all of the nonlinear interactions during the formation of turbulence. The size of these structures spans our computational domain, dominating the scaling of the energy spectrum, which follows a E∝k {sup –2} power law. As the Reynolds number increases, the curling of the current sheets due to Kelvin-Helmholtz-type instabilities and reconnection modifies the scaling of the energy spectrum from k {sup –2} toward k {sup –5/3}. This transition occurs due to the decorrelation of the velocity and the current density which is proportional to Re{sub λ}{sup −3/2}. Finite Reynolds number behavior is observed without reaching a finite asymptote for the energy dissipation rate even for a simulation of Re{sub λ} ≅ 440 with 2048{sup 3} grid points. This behavior demonstrates that even state-of-the-art numerical simulations of the highest Reynolds numbers can be influenced by the choice of initial conditions and consequently they are inadequate to deduce unequivocally the fate of universality in MHD turbulence. Implications for astrophysical observations are discussed.

  10. Building up the Population III initial mass function from cosmological initial conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stacy, Athena; Bromm, Volker; Lee, Aaron T.

    2016-10-01

    We simulate the growth of a Population III stellar system, starting from cosmological initial conditions at z = 100. We follow the formation of a minihalo and the subsequent collapse of its central gas to high densities, resolving scales as small as ˜ 1 au. Using sink particles to represent the growing protostars, we model the growth of the photodissociating and ionizing region around the first sink, continuing the simulation for ˜5000 yr after initial protostar formation. Along with the first-forming sink, several tens of secondary sinks form before an ionization front develops around the most massive star. The resulting cluster has high rates of sink formation, ejections from the stellar disc, and sink mergers during the first ˜ 2000 yr, before the onset of radiative feedback. By this time, a warm ˜5000 K phase of neutral gas has expanded to roughly the disc radius of 2000 au, slowing mass flow on to the disc and sinks. By 5000 yr the most massive star grows to 20 M⊙, while the total stellar mass approaches 75 M⊙. Out of the ˜ 40 sinks, approximately 30 are low mass (M* Pop III cluster before an ionization front emerges. Throughout the simulation, the majority of stellar mass is contained within the most massive stars, further implying that the Pop III initial mass function is top-heavy.

  11. Protoplanetary disk fragmentation with varying radiative physics, initial conditions and numerical techniques

    CERN Document Server

    Mayer, Lucio

    2007-01-01

    We review recent results of SPH simulations of gravitational instability in gaseous protoplanetary disks,emphasizing the role of thermodynamics in both isolated and binary systems. Contradictory results appeared in the literature regarding disk fragmentation at tens of AU from the central star are likely due to the different treatment of radiation physics as well as reflecting different initial conditions. Further progress on the subject requires extensive comparisons between different codes with the requirement that the same initial conditions are adopted. It is discussed how the local conditions of the disks undergoing fragmentation at $R < 25$ AU in recent SPH simulations are in rough agreement with the prediction of analytical models, with small differences being likely related to the inability of analytical models to account for the dynamics and thermodynamics of three-dimensional spiral shocks. We report that radically different adaptive hydrodynamical codes, SPH and adaptive mesh refinement (AMR), y...

  12. Conditional monogyny: female quality predicts male faithfulness

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Welke Klaas W

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Introduction Male monogyny in the absence of paternal investment is arguably one of the most puzzling mating systems. Recent evidence suggests that males of monogynous species adjust their life-history and their mating decision to shifting spatial and temporal selection regimes. In the cannibalistic wasp spider Argiope bruennichi males can be either monogynous or mate with a maximum of two females. We studied factors underlying male mating decisions in a natural population over a whole mating season. We documented all matings and categorized the males into single-mated and double-mated monogynous as well as bigynous males. Results We found that all categories were continuously present with relatively stable frequencies despite changes in the operational sex ratio. Males were more likely monogynous when copulating with relatively heavy and old females and otherwise bigynous. Conclusion Our results imply that males make conditional mating decisions based on the quality of the first female they encounter but do not adjust their mating tactic to the local selection regime.

  13. Prediction of Machine Tool Condition Using Support Vector Machine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Peigong; Meng, Qingfeng; Zhao, Jian; Li, Junjie; Wang, Xiufeng

    2011-07-01

    Condition monitoring and predicting of CNC machine tools are investigated in this paper. Considering the CNC machine tools are often small numbers of samples, a condition predicting method for CNC machine tools based on support vector machines (SVMs) is proposed, then one-step and multi-step condition prediction models are constructed. The support vector machines prediction models are used to predict the trends of working condition of a certain type of CNC worm wheel and gear grinding machine by applying sequence data of vibration signal, which is collected during machine processing. And the relationship between different eigenvalue in CNC vibration signal and machining quality is discussed. The test result shows that the trend of vibration signal Peak-to-peak value in surface normal direction is most relevant to the trend of surface roughness value. In trends prediction of working condition, support vector machine has higher prediction accuracy both in the short term ('One-step') and long term (multi-step) prediction compared to autoregressive (AR) model and the RBF neural network. Experimental results show that it is feasible to apply support vector machine to CNC machine tool condition prediction.

  14. Modeling the initial conditions of interacting galaxy pairs using Identikit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mortazavi, S. Alireza; Lotz, Jennifer M.; Barnes, Joshua E.; Snyder, Gregory F.

    2016-01-01

    We develop and test an automated technique to model the dynamics of interacting galaxy pairs. We use Identikit as a tool for modelling and matching the morphology and kinematics of the interacting pairs of equal-mass galaxies. In order to reduce the effect of subjective human judgement, we automate the selection of phase space regions used to match simulations to data, and we explore how selection of these regions affects the random uncertainties of parameters in the best-fitting model. In this work, we use an independent set of GADGET SPH simulations as input data to determine the systematic bias in the measured encounter parameters based on the known initial conditions of these simulations. We test both cold gas and young stellar components in the GADGET simulations to explore the effect of choosing H I versus H α as the line-of-sight velocity tracer. We find that we can group the results into tests with good, fair, and poor convergence based on the distribution of parameters of models close to the best-fitting model. For tests with good and fair convergence, we rule out large fractions of parameter space and recover merger stage, eccentricity, pericentric distance, viewing angle, and initial disc orientations within 3σ of the correct value. All of tests on prograde-prograde systems have either good or fair convergence. The results of tests on edge-on discs are less biased than face-on tests. Retrograde and polar systems do not converge and may require constraints from regions other than the tidal tails and bridges.

  15. Hydrometeorological threshold conditions for debris flow initiation in Norway

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. K. Meyer

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Debris flows, triggered by extreme precipitation events and rapid snow melt, cause considerable damage to the Norwegian infrastructure every year. To define intensity-duration (ID thresholds for debris flow initiation critical water supply conditions arising from intensive rainfall or snow melt were assessed on the basis of daily hydro-meteorological information for 502 documented debris flow events. Two threshold types were computed: one based on absolute ID relationships and one using ID relationships normalized by the local precipitation day normal (PDN. For each threshold type, minimum, medium and maximum threshold values were defined by fitting power law curves along the 10th, 50th and 90th percentiles of the data population. Depending on the duration of the event, the absolute threshold intensities needed for debris flow initiation vary between 15 and 107 mm day−1. Since the PDN changes locally, the normalized thresholds show spatial variations. Depending on location, duration and threshold level, the normalized threshold intensities vary between 6 and 250 mm day−1. The thresholds obtained were used for a frequency analysis of over-threshold events giving an estimation of the exceedance probability and thus potential for debris flow events in different parts of Norway. The absolute thresholds are most often exceeded along the west coast, while the normalized thresholds are most frequently exceeded on the west-facing slopes of the Norwegian mountain ranges. The minimum thresholds derived in this study are in the range of other thresholds obtained for regions with a climate comparable to Norway. Statistics reveal that the normalized threshold is more reliable than the absolute threshold as the former shows no spatial clustering of debris flows related to water supply events captured by the threshold.

  16. Multi-Scale Initial Conditions For Cosmological Simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hahn, Oliver; /KIPAC, Menlo Park; Abel, Tom; /KIPAC, Menlo Park /ZAH, Heidelberg /HITS, Heidelberg

    2011-11-04

    We discuss a new algorithm to generate multi-scale initial conditions with multiple levels of refinements for cosmological 'zoom-in' simulations. The method uses an adaptive convolution of Gaussian white noise with a real-space transfer function kernel together with an adaptive multi-grid Poisson solver to generate displacements and velocities following first- (1LPT) or second-order Lagrangian perturbation theory (2LPT). The new algorithm achieves rms relative errors of the order of 10{sup -4} for displacements and velocities in the refinement region and thus improves in terms of errors by about two orders of magnitude over previous approaches. In addition, errors are localized at coarse-fine boundaries and do not suffer from Fourier-space-induced interference ringing. An optional hybrid multi-grid and Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) based scheme is introduced which has identical Fourier-space behaviour as traditional approaches. Using a suite of re-simulations of a galaxy cluster halo our real-space-based approach is found to reproduce correlation functions, density profiles, key halo properties and subhalo abundances with per cent level accuracy. Finally, we generalize our approach for two-component baryon and dark-matter simulations and demonstrate that the power spectrum evolution is in excellent agreement with linear perturbation theory. For initial baryon density fields, it is suggested to use the local Lagrangian approximation in order to generate a density field for mesh-based codes that is consistent with the Lagrangian perturbation theory instead of the current practice of using the Eulerian linearly scaled densities.

  17. Conditional Probabilities in the Excursion Set Theory. Generic Barriers and non-Gaussian Initial Conditions

    CERN Document Server

    De Simone, Andrea; Riotto, Antonio

    2011-01-01

    The excursion set theory, where density perturbations evolve stochastically with the smoothing scale, provides a method for computing the dark matter halo mass function. The computation of the mass function is mapped into the so-called first-passage time problem in the presence of a moving barrier. The excursion set theory is also a powerful formalism to study other properties of dark matter halos such as halo bias, accretion rate, formation time, merging rate and the formation history of halos. This is achieved by computing conditional probabilities with non-trivial initial conditions, and the conditional two-barrier first-crossing rate. In this paper we use the recently-developed path integral formulation of the excursion set theory to calculate analytically these conditional probabilities in the presence of a generic moving barrier, including the one describing the ellipsoidal collapse, and for both Gaussian and non-Gaussian initial conditions. The non-Markovianity of the random walks induced by non-Gaussi...

  18. On initial conditions for the Hot Big Bang

    CERN Document Server

    Bezrukov, F; Shaposhnikov, M

    2008-01-01

    We analyse the process of reheating the Universe in the electroweak theory where the Higgs field plays a role of the inflaton. We estimate the maximal temperature of the Universe and fix the initial conditions for radiation-dominated phase of the Universe expansion in the framework of the nuMSM--the minimal extension of the Standard Model (SM) by three right-handed singlet fermions. We show that the inflationary epoch is followed by a matter dominated stage related to the Higgs field oscillations. We investigate the energy transfer from higgs-inflaton to the SM particles and show that the radiation dominated phase of the Universe expansion starts at temperature T_r ~ (3-8)*10^{13} GeV. We estimate the production rate of singlet fermions at preheating and find that their concentrations at T_r are negligibly small. This suggests that the sterile neutrino Dark Matter (DM) production and baryogenesis in the nuMSM with higgs driven inflation are low energy phenomena, having nothing to do with inflation. We study t...

  19. Improving initial conditions for cosmological N-body simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garrison, Lehman H.; Eisenstein, Daniel J.; Ferrer, Douglas; Metchnik, Marc V.; Pinto, Philip A.

    2016-10-01

    In cosmological N-body simulations, the representation of dark matter as discrete `macroparticles' suppresses the growth of structure, such that simulations no longer reproduce linear theory on small scales near kNyquist. Marcos et al. demonstrate that this is due to sparse sampling of modes near kNyquist and that the often-assumed continuum growing modes are not proper growing modes of the particle system. We develop initial conditions (ICs) that respect the particle linear theory growing modes and then rescale the mode amplitudes to account for growth suppression. These ICs also allow us to take advantage of our very accurate N-body code ABACUS to implement second-order Lagrangian perturbation theory (2LPT) in configuration space. The combination of 2LPT and rescaling improves the accuracy of the late-time power spectra, halo mass functions, and halo clustering. In particular, we achieve 1 per cent accuracy in the power spectrum down to kNyquist, versus kNyquist/4 without rescaling or kNyquist/13 without 2LPT, relative to an oversampled reference simulation. We anticipate that our 2LPT will be useful for large simulations where fast Fourier transforms are expensive and that rescaling will be useful for suites of medium-resolution simulations used in cosmic emulators and galaxy survey mock catalogues. Code to generate ICs is available at https://github.com/lgarrison/zeldovich-PLT.

  20. Modeling the Initial Conditions of Interacting Galaxy Pairs Using Identikit

    CERN Document Server

    Mortazavi, S Alireza; Barnes, Joshua E

    2014-01-01

    We develop and test an automated technique to model the dynamics of interacting galaxy pairs. We use Identikit (Barnes & Hibbard 2009; Barnes 2011) as a tool for modeling and matching the morphology and kinematics of the interacting pairs of equal-mass galaxies. In order to reduce the effect of subjective human judgement, we automate the selection of phase-space regions used to match simulations to data, and we explore how selection of these regions affects the random uncertainties of parameters in the best-fit model. In this work, we used an independent set of GADGET SPH simulations as input data, to determine the systematic bias in the measured encounter parameters based on the known initial conditions of these simulations. We tested both cold gas and young stellar components in the GADGET simulations to explore the effect of choosing HI vs. H$\\alpha$ as the line of sight velocity tracer. We found that we can group the results into tests with good, fair, and poor convergence based on the distribution of...

  1. Ensemble prediction experiments using conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2009-01-01

    Two methods for initialization of ensemble forecasts are compared, namely, singular vector (SV) and conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP). The comparison is done for forecast lengths of up to 10 days with a three-level quasi-geostrophic (QG) atmospheric model in a perfect model scenario. Ten cases are randomly selected from 1982/1983 winter to 1993/1994 winter (from December to the following February). Anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) is adopted as a tool to measure the quality of the predicted ensembles on the Northern Hemisphere 500 hPa geopotential height. The results show that the forecast quality of ensemble samples in which the first SV is replaced by CNOP is higher than that of samples composed of only SVs in the medium range, based on the occurrence of weather re-gime transitions in Northern Hemisphere after about four days. Besides, the reliability of ensemble forecasts is evaluated by the Rank Histograms. The above conclusions confirm and extend those reached earlier by the authors, which stated that the introduction of CNOP improves the forecast skill under the condition that the analysis error belongs to a kind of fast-growing error by using a barotropic QG model.

  2. Ensemble prediction experiments using conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    JIANG ZhiNa; MU Mu; WANG DongHai

    2009-01-01

    Two methods for initialization of ensemble forecasts are compared, namely, singular vector (SV) and conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP). The comparison is done for forecast lengths of up to 10 days with a three-level quasi-geostrophic (QG) atmospheric model in a perfect model scenario. Ten cases are randomly selected from 1982/1983 winter to 1993/1994 winter (from 12 to the following February). Anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) is adopted as a tool to measure the quality of the predicted ensembles on the Northern Hemisphere 500 hPa geopotential height. The results show that the forecast quality of ensemble samples in which the first SV is replaced by CNOP is higher than that of samples composed of only SVs in the medium range, based on the occurrence of weather re-gime transitions in Northern Hemisphere after about four days. Besides, the reliability of ensemble forecasts is evaluated by the Rank Histograms. The above conclusions confirm .and extend those reached earlier by the authors, which stated that the introduction of CNOP improves the forecast skill under the condition that the analysis error belongs to a kind of fast-growing error by using a barotropic QG model.

  3. Building up the Population III initial mass function from cosmological initial conditions

    CERN Document Server

    Stacy, Athena; Lee, Aaron T

    2016-01-01

    We perform simulations of the growth of a Population III stellar system, starting from cosmological initial conditions at z=100. We self-consistently follow the formation of a minihalo and the subsequent collapse of its central gas to high densities, resolving scales as small as ~ 1 AU. Using sink particles to represent the growing protostars, we model the growth of the photodissociating and ionizing region around the first sink, continuing the simulation for ~ 5000 years after initial protostar formation. In addition to the first-forming sink, several tens of secondary sinks form before an ionization front develops around the most massive star. The resulting cluster has high rates of sink formation, ejections from the stellar disk, and sink mergers during the first ~ 2000 yr, before the onset of radiative feedback. By this time a warm ~ 5000 K phase of neutral gas has expanded to roughly the disk radius of 2000 AU, slowing mass flow onto the disk and sinks. By the end of the simulation, the most massive star...

  4. Solving the initial condition of the string relaxation equation of the string model for glass transition: part-Ⅱ

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhang Jin-Lu; Wang Li-Na; Zhao Xing-Yu; Zhang Li-Li; Zhou Heng-Wei; Wei Lai; Huang Yi-Neng

    2011-01-01

    The string model for the glass transition can quantitatively describe the universal α-relaxation in glassformers. The string relaxation equation (SRE) of the model simplifies the well-known Debye and Rouse-Zimm relaxation equations at high and low enough temperatures, respectively. However, its initial condition, necessary to the further model predictions of glassy dynamics, has not been solved. In this paper, the general initial condition of the SRE for stochastically spatially configurative strings is solved exactly based on the obtained special initial condition of the SRE for straight strings in a previous paper (J. L. Zhang et al. 2010 Chin. Phya. B 19, 056403).

  5. Prediction of free air space in initial composting mixtures by a statistical design approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soares, Micaela A R; Quina, Margarida J; Quinta-Ferreira, Rosa

    2013-10-15

    Free air space (FAS) is a physical parameter that can play an important role in composting processes to maintain favourable aerobic conditions. Aiming to predict the FAS of initial composting mixtures, specific materials proportions ranged from 0 to 1 were tested for a case study comprising industrial potato peel, which is characterized by low air void volume, thus requiring additional components for its composting. The characterization and prediction of FAS for initial mixtures involving potato peel, grass clippings and rice husks (set A) or sawdust (set B) was accomplished by means of an augmented simplex-centroid mixture design approach. The experimental data were fitted to second order Scheffé polynomials. Synergistic or antagonistic effects of mixture proportions in the FAS response were identified from the surface and response trace plots in the FAS response. Moreover, a good agreement was achieved between the model predictions and supplementary experimental data. Moreover, theoretical and empirical approaches for estimating FAS available in literature were compared with the predictions generated by the mixture design approach. This study demonstrated that the mixture design methodology can be a valuable tool to predict the initial FAS of composting mixtures, specifically in making adjustments to improve composting processes containing primarily potato peel.

  6. Inflation with general initial conditions for scalar perturbations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kundu, Sandipan, E-mail: sandyk@physics.utexas.edu [Texas Cosmology Center, University of Texas, Austin, TX 78712 (United States)

    2012-02-01

    We explore the possibility of a single field quasi-de Sitter inflationary model with general initial state for primordial fluctuations. In this paper, first we compute the power spectrum and the bispectrum of scalar perturbations with coherent state as the initial state. We find that a large class of coherent states are indistinguishable from the Bunch-Davies vacuum state and hence consistent with the current observations. In case of a more general initial state built over Bunch-Davies vacuum state, we show that the constraints on the initial state from observed power spectrum and local bispectrum are relatively weak and for quasi-de Sitter inflation a large number of initial states are consistent with the current observations. However, renormalizability of the energy-momentum tensor of the fluctuations constraints the initial state further.

  7. Initial Conditions for Accurate N-Body Simulations of Massive Neutrino Cosmologies

    CERN Document Server

    Zennaro, Matteo; Villaescusa-Navarro, Francisco; Carbone, Carmelita; Sefusatti, Emiliano; Guzzo, Luigi

    2016-01-01

    The set-up of the initial conditions in cosmological N-body simulations is usually implemented by rescaling the desired low-redshift linear power spectrum to the required starting redshift consistently with the Newtonian evolution of the simulation. The implementation of this practical solution requires more care in the context of massive neutrino cosmologies, mainly because of the non-trivial scale-dependence of the linear growth that characterises these models. In this work we consider a simple two-fluid, Newtonian approximation for cold dark matter and massive neutrinos perturbations that can reproduce the cold matter linear evolution predicted by Boltzmann codes such as CAMB or CLASS with a 0.1% accuracy or below for all redshift relevant to nonlinear structure formation. We use this description, in the first place, to quantify the systematic errors induced by several approximations often assumed in numerical simulations, including the typical set-up of the initial conditions for massive neutrino cosmolog...

  8. The Use of Commercial Remote Sensing Predicting Helicopter Brownout Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    2007-09-01

    landing. 4 Figure 2. Soil caught in rotor downwash, start of brownout (from Brownout California soil resource lab) . A second issue ...Sensing in Predicting Helicopter Brownout Conditions. September 2006 (Top Secret). Tan, Kim H., First Edition, Enviromental Soil Science Marcel

  9. Prediction Model of Sewing Technical Condition by Grey Neural Network

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    DONG Ying; FANG Fang; ZHANG Wei-yuan

    2007-01-01

    The grey system theory and the artificial neural network technology were applied to predict the sewing technical condition. The representative parameters, such as needle, stitch, were selected. Prediction model was established based on the different fabrics' mechanical properties that measured by KES instrument. Grey relevant degree analysis was applied to choose the input parameters of the neural network. The result showed that prediction model has good precision. The average relative error was 4.08% for needle and 4.25% for stitch.

  10. Effects of Initial Conditions on Compressible Mixing in Supernova-Relevant Laboratory Experiments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Miles, A R; Edwards, M; Greenough, J

    2004-04-30

    In core-collapse supernovae, strong blast waves drive interfaces susceptible to Rayleigh-Taylor (RT), Richtmyer-Meshkov (RM), and Kelvin-Helmholtz (KH) instabilities. In addition, perturbation growth can result from material expansion in large-scale velocity gradients behind the shock front. Laser-driven experiments are designed to produce a strongly shocked interface whose evolution is a scaled version of the unstable hydrogen-helium interface in core-collapse supernovae such as SN 1987A. The ultimate goal of this research is to develop an understanding of the effect of hydrodynamic instabilities and the resulting transition to turbulence on supernovae observables that remain as yet unexplained. In this paper, we summarize recent results from our computational study of unstable systems driven by high Mach number shock and blast waves. For planar multimode systems, compressibility effects preclude the emergence of a regime of self-similar instability growth independent of the initial conditions (IC's) by allowing for memory of the initial conditions to be retained in the mix-width at all times. With higher-dimensional blast waves, divergence restores the properties necessary for establishment of the self-similar state, but achieving it requires very high initial characteristic mode number and high Mach number for the incident blast wave. Initial conditions predicted by some recent stellar calculations are incompatible with self-similarity.

  11. New solutions of initial conditions in general relativity

    CERN Document Server

    Tafel, J

    2013-01-01

    We find new classes of exact solutions of the initial momentum constraint for vacuum Einstein's equations. They are either axially symmetric or the exterior curvature tensor has a simple algebraic structure. In general the mean curvature $H$ is non-constant and initial metric is not conformally flat. Solutions depend on several free functions. The conformal method of Lichnerowicz, Choquet-Bruhat and York is used to prove solvability of the Hamiltonian constraint if $H$ vanishes. The existence of marginally trapped surfaces in initial manifold is discussed.

  12. Invariance of Initiation Mass and Predictability of Cell Size in Escherichia coli.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Si, Fangwei; Li, Dongyang; Cox, Sarah E; Sauls, John T; Azizi, Omid; Sou, Cindy; Schwartz, Amy B; Erickstad, Michael J; Jun, Yonggun; Li, Xintian; Jun, Suckjoon

    2017-05-08

    It is generally assumed that the allocation and synthesis of total cellular resources in microorganisms are uniquely determined by the growth conditions. Adaptation to a new physiological state leads to a change in cell size via reallocation of cellular resources. However, it has not been understood how cell size is coordinated with biosynthesis and robustly adapts to physiological states. We show that cell size in Escherichia coli can be predicted for any steady-state condition by projecting all biosynthesis into three measurable variables representing replication initiation, replication-division cycle, and the global biosynthesis rate. These variables can be decoupled by selectively controlling their respective core biosynthesis using CRISPR interference and antibiotics, verifying our predictions that different physiological states can result in the same cell size. We performed extensive growth inhibition experiments, and we discovered that cell size at replication initiation per origin, namely the initiation mass or unit cell, is remarkably invariant under perturbations targeting transcription, translation, ribosome content, replication kinetics, fatty acid and cell wall synthesis, cell division, and cell shape. Based on this invariance and balanced resource allocation, we explain why the total cell size is the sum of all unit cells. These results provide an overarching framework with quantitative predictive power over cell size in bacteria. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  13. Fractional differential equation with the fuzzy initial condition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sadia Arshad

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we study the existence and uniqueness of the solution for a class of fractional differential equation with fuzzy initial value. The fractional derivatives are considered in the Riemann-Liouville sense.

  14. Effects of optimal initial errors on predicting the seasonal reduction of the upstream Kuroshio transport

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Kun; Wang, Qiang; Mu, Mu; Liang, Peng

    2016-10-01

    With the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS), we realistically simulated the transport variations of the upstream Kuroshio (referring to the Kuroshio from its origin to the south of Taiwan), particularly for the seasonal transport reduction. Then, we investigated the effects of the optimal initial errors estimated by the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) approach on predicting the seasonal transport reduction. Two transport reduction events (denoted as Event 1 and Event 2) were chosen, and CNOP1 and CNOP2 were obtained for each event. By examining the spatial structures of the two types of CNOPs, we found that the dominant amplitudes are located around (128°E, 17°N) horizontally and in the upper 1000 m vertically. For each event, the two CNOPs caused large prediction errors. Specifically, at the prediction time, CNOP1 (CNOP2) develops into an anticyclonic (cyclonic) eddy-like structure centered around 124°E, leading to the increase (decrease) of the upstream Kuroshio transport. By investigating the time evolution of the CNOPs in Event 1, we found that the eddy-like structures originating from east of Luzon gradually grow and simultaneously propagate westward. The eddy-energetic analysis indicated that the errors obtain energy from the background state through barotropic and baroclinic instabilities and that the latter plays a more important role. These results suggest that improving the initial conditions in east of Luzon could lead to better prediction of the upstream Kuroshio transport variation.

  15. Parametric initial conditions for core-collapse supernova simulations

    CERN Document Server

    Suwa, Yudai

    2016-01-01

    We investigate a method to construct parametrized progenitor models for core-collapse supernova simulations. Different from all modern core-collapse supernova studies, which rely on progenitor models from stellar evolution calculations, we follow the methodology of Baron & Cooperstein (1990) to construct initial models. Choosing parametrized spatial distributions of entropy and electron fraction as a function of mass coordinate and solving the equation of hydrostatic equilibrium, we obtain the initial density structures of our progenitor models. First, we calculate structures with parameters fitting broadly the evolutionary model s11.2 of Woosley et al. (2002). We then demonstrate the reliability of our method by performing general relativistic hydrodynamic simulations in spherical symmetry with the isotropic diffusion source approximation to solve the neutrino transport. Our comprehensive parameter study shows that initial models with a small central entropy ($\\lesssim 0.4\\,k_B$ nucleon$^{-1}$) can explo...

  16. Multiyear climate prediction with initialization based on 4D-Var data assimilation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mochizuki, Takashi; Masuda, Shuhei; Ishikawa, Yoichi; Awaji, Toshiyuki

    2016-04-01

    An initialization relevant to interannual-to-decadal climate prediction has usually used a simple restoring approach for oceanic variables. Here we demonstrate the potential use of four-dimensional variational (4D-Var) data assimilation on the leading edge of initialization approach particularly in multiyear (5 year long) climate prediction. We perform full-field initialization rather than anomaly initialization and assimilate the atmosphere states together with the ocean states to an atmosphere-ocean coupled climate model. In particular, it is noteworthy that ensembles of multiyear hindcasts using our assimilation results as initial conditions exhibit an improved skill in hindcasting the multiyear changes of the upper ocean heat content (OHC) over the central North Pacific. The 4D-Var approach enables us to directly assimilate a time trajectory of slow changes of the Aleutian Low that are compatible with the sea surface height and the OHC. Consequently, we can estimate a coupled climate state suitable for hindcasting dynamical changes over the extratropical North Pacific as observed.

  17. Initial conditions in AA and pA collisions

    CERN Document Server

    Lappi, T

    2016-01-01

    A full understanding of the spacetime evolution of the QCD matter created in a heavy ion collision requires understanding the properties of the initial stages. In the weak coupling picture these are dominated by classical gluon fields, whose properties can also be studied via the scattering of dilute probes off a high energy hadron or nucleus. A particular challenge is understanding small systems, where LHC data is also showing signs of collective behavior. We discuss some recent results of on the initial matter production and thermalization in heavy ion collisions, in particular in the gluon saturation framework.

  18. Estimating initial conditions for groundwater flow modeling using an adaptive inverse method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hassane Maina, F.; Delay, F.; Ackerer, P.

    2017-09-01

    Due to continuous increases in water demand, the need for seasonal forecasts of available groundwater resources becomes inevitable. Hydrogeological models might provide a valuable tool for this kind of resource management. Because predictions over short time horizons are foreseen, the reliability of model outputs depends on accurate estimates of the initial conditions (ICs), as well as the estimated parameter values, boundary conditions and forcing terms (e.g., recharge, as well as sinks and sources). Here, we provide an inverse procedure for estimating these ICs. The procedure is based on an adaptive parameterization of the ICs that limits over-parameterization and involves the minimization of an ad hoc objective function. The quasi-Newton algorithm is used for the minimization, and the gradients are computed with an adjoint-state method. Two test cases based on a real aquifer that are designed to evaluate the capability of the method were addressed. It is assumed that the boundary conditions, hydraulic parameters and forcing terms are known from an existing hydrogeological model. In both test cases, the proposed method was quite successful in estimating the ICs and predicting head values that were not used in the calibration. 50 calibrations for each test case have been performed to quantify the reliability of the predictions.

  19. Initial conditions for accurate N-body simulations of massive neutrino cosmologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zennaro, M.; Bel, J.; Villaescusa-Navarro, F.; Carbone, C.; Sefusatti, E.; Guzzo, L.

    2017-04-01

    The set-up of the initial conditions in cosmological N-body simulations is usually implemented by rescaling the desired low-redshift linear power spectrum to the required starting redshift consistently with the Newtonian evolution of the simulation. The implementation of this practical solution requires more care in the context of massive neutrino cosmologies, mainly because of the non-trivial scale-dependence of the linear growth that characterizes these models. In this work, we consider a simple two-fluid, Newtonian approximation for cold dark matter and massive neutrinos perturbations that can reproduce the cold matter linear evolution predicted by Boltzmann codes such as CAMB or CLASS with a 0.1 per cent accuracy or below for all redshift relevant to non-linear structure formation. We use this description, in the first place, to quantify the systematic errors induced by several approximations often assumed in numerical simulations, including the typical set-up of the initial conditions for massive neutrino cosmologies adopted in previous works. We then take advantage of the flexibility of this approach to rescale the late-time linear power spectra to the simulation initial redshift, in order to be as consistent as possible with the dynamics of the N-body code and the approximations it assumes. We implement our method in a public code (REPS rescaled power spectra for initial conditions with massive neutrinos https://github.com/matteozennaro/reps) providing the initial displacements and velocities for cold dark matter and neutrino particles that will allow accurate, i.e. 1 per cent level, numerical simulations for this cosmological scenario.

  20. Numerical Black Hole Interiors and String Cosmology Initial Conditions

    CERN Document Server

    Madden, R

    2001-01-01

    Recent work has proposed the principle of `asymptotic past triviality' to characterize the initial state in the pre-big bang scenario of string cosmology, that it is a generic perturbative solution of the low-energy effective action. Among the more generic sets of solutions which is simple enough to investigate thoroughly, yet complex enough to exhibit interesting behavior, is the gravity-dilaton system in spherical symmetry. Since, in the Einstein frame, this system reduces to a massless minimally coupled scalar, which has been target of a large body of previous investigation, we will draw on this and interpret it in the cosmological context. Since this scenario necessarily involves the transition from weak field initial data into the strong field regime, gravitational collapse, we have made numerical computations to answer some of the questions raised on the road to the proposal that `the pre-big bang is as generic as gravitational collapse'.

  1. Parametric initial conditions for core-collapse supernova simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suwa, Yudai; Müller, Ewald

    2016-08-01

    We investigate a method to construct parametrized progenitor models for core-collapse supernova simulations. Different from all modern core-collapse supernova studies, which rely on progenitor models from stellar evolution calculations, we follow the methodology of Baron & Cooperstein to construct initial models. Choosing parametrized spatial distributions of entropy and electron fraction as a function of mass coordinate and solving the equation of hydrostatic equilibrium, we obtain the initial density structures of our progenitor models. First, we calculate structures with parameters fitting broadly the evolutionary model s11.2 of Woosley et al. (2002). We then demonstrate the reliability of our method by performing general relativistic hydrodynamic simulations in spherical symmetry with the isotropic diffusion source approximation to solve the neutrino transport. Our comprehensive parameter study shows that initial models with a small central entropy (≲0.4 kB nucleon-1) can explode even in spherically symmetric simulations. Models with a large entropy (≳6 kB nucleon-1) in the Si/O layer have a rather large explosion energy (˜4 × 1050 erg) at the end of the simulations, which is still rapidly increasing.

  2. Variation in initiation condition of debris flows in the mountain regions surrounding Beijing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Chao; Wang, Yu-jie; Du, Cui; Wang, Yun-qi; Li, Yun-peng

    2016-11-01

    Debris flows in the mountain regions surrounding Beijing have been occurring for a long time and have resulted in great economic losses. In this study, 23 rainstorm events, surficial sediments, and debris flow deposits were analyzed to quantify the area's rainfall threshold and to investigate how such conditions may be used to predict debris flow in this region. Rainfall threshold of intensity-duration (I-D) functions after vegetation recovery was higher than before recovery and also higher than I-D levels in other regions where debris flows are closely associated with runoff. Field investigations revealed that surficial sediments were characterized by coarse-grained sediments and that debris flow deposits lacked fine particles. Local debris flows can be triggered by runoff; however, no single standard equation is used to predict the conditions that lead to runoff-triggered debris flow; and commonly used equations give different values. Here, we propose an empirical function that takes into account peak discharge per width and particle diameter. This model should be verified with further investigations so that it can be used as a reference to analyze the conditions that lead to debris flow in the study area. Finally, debris flows may have been related to occasional storms in the study area, which has been experiencing substantially increased temperatures and decreased annual precipitation. This work provides important information about the conditions that initiated debris flow in the Beijing mountain regions in the last few decades.

  3. What Kind of Initial Errors Cause the Severest Prediction Uncertainty of EI Nino in Zebiak-Cane Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    XU Hui; DUAN Wansuo

    2008-01-01

    With the Zebiak-Cane (ZC) model, the initial error that has the largest effect on ENSO prediction is explored by conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP). The results demonstrate that CNOP-type errors cause the largest prediction error of ENSO in the ZC model. By analyzing the behavior of CNOP- type errors, we find that for the normal states and the relatively weak EI Nino events in the ZC model, the predictions tend to yield false alarms due to the uncertainties caused by CNOP. For the relatively strong EI Nino events, the ZC model largely underestimates their intensities. Also, our results suggest that the error growth of EI Nino in the ZC model depends on the phases of both the annual cycle and ENSO. The condition during northern spring and summer is most favorable for the error growth. The ENSO prediction bestriding these two seasons may be the most difficult. A linear singular vector (LSV) approach is also used to estimate the error growth of ENSO, but it underestimates the prediction uncertainties of ENSO in the ZC model. This result indicates that the different initial errors cause different amplitudes of prediction errors though they have same magnitudes. CNOP yields the severest prediction uncertainty. That is to say, the prediction skill of ENSO is closely related to the types of initial error. This finding illustrates a theoretical basis of data assimilation. It is expected that a data assimilation method can filter the initial errors related to CNOP and improve the ENSO forecast skill.

  4. Predicting speech intelligibility in conditions with nonlinearly processed noisy speech

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Søren; Dau, Torsten

    2013-01-01

    The speech-based envelope power spectrum model (sEPSM; [1]) was proposed in order to overcome the limitations of the classical speech transmission index (STI) and speech intelligibility index (SII). The sEPSM applies the signal-tonoise ratio in the envelope domain (SNRenv), which was demonstrated...... to successfully predict speech intelligibility in conditions with nonlinearly processed noisy speech, such as processing with spectral subtraction. Moreover, a multiresolution version (mr-sEPSM) was demonstrated to account for speech intelligibility in various conditions with stationary and fluctuating...... from computational auditory scene analysis and further support the hypothesis that the SNRenv is a powerful metric for speech intelligibility prediction....

  5. Puzzling initial conditions in the R_h=ct model

    CERN Document Server

    Bengochea, Gabriel R

    2016-01-01

    In recent years, some studies have drawn attention to the lack of large-angle correlations in the observed cosmic microwave background (CMB) temperature anisotropies with respect to that predicted within the standard LCDM model. Lately, some authors have shown that such a lack of correlations could be explained in the framework of the so-called R_h=ct model without inflation. The aim of this work is to find a mechanism to generate, through a quantum field theory, the primordial power spectrum presented by these authors. Specifically, we consider two different scenarios: first, we assume a scalar field dominating the early universe in the R_h=ct cosmological model, and second, we deal with the possibility of adding an early inflationary phase to the mentioned model. We analyze the consistency between the predicted and observed amplitudes of the CMB temperature anisotropies in both scenarios. During this search, we run into deep issues which could indicate that it is not clear how to characterize the primordial...

  6. The Halo Bispectrum in N-body Simulations with non-Gaussian Initial Conditions

    CERN Document Server

    Sefusatti, Emiliano; Desjacques, Vincent

    2011-01-01

    We present measurements of the bispectrum of dark matter halos in numerical simulations with non-Gaussian initial conditions of the local type. We show, in the first place, that the overall effect of primordial non-Gaussianity on the halo bispectrum is larger than on the halo power spectrum when all measurable configurations are taken into account. We then compare our measurements with a tree-level perturbative prediction finding good agreement at large scale when the constant Gaussian bias parameter, both linear and quadratic, and their constant non-Gaussian corrections are fitted for. The best-fit values of the Gaussian bias factors and their non-Gaussian, scale-independent corrections are in qualitative agreement with the peak-background split expectations. In particular, we show that the effect of non-Gaussian initial conditions on squeezed configurations is fairly large (up to 30% for f_NL=100 at redshift z=0.5) and results from contributions of similar amplitude induced by the initial matter bispectrum,...

  7. Identifying Initial Condition in Degenerate Parabolic Equation with Singular Potential

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Atifi

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available A hybrid algorithm and regularization method are proposed, for the first time, to solve the one-dimensional degenerate inverse heat conduction problem to estimate the initial temperature distribution from point measurements. The evolution of the heat is given by a degenerate parabolic equation with singular potential. This problem can be formulated in a least-squares framework, an iterative procedure which minimizes the difference between the given measurements and the value at sensor locations of a reconstructed field. The mathematical model leads to a nonconvex minimization problem. To solve it, we prove the existence of at least one solution of problem and we propose two approaches: the first is based on a Tikhonov regularization, while the second approach is based on a hybrid genetic algorithm (married genetic with descent method type gradient. Some numerical experiments are given.

  8. The Formation of Population III Binaries from Cosmological Initial Conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Turk, Matthew J.; Abel, Tom; /KIPAC, Menlo Park; O' Shea, Brian W.; /Michigan State U.

    2010-08-26

    Previous high resolution cosmological simulations predict the first stars to appear in the early universe to be very massive and to form in isolation. Here we discuss a cosmological simulation in which the central 50M{sub {circle_dot}} clump breaks up into two cores, having a mass ratio of two to one, with one fragment collapsing to densities of 10{sup -8}g cm{sup -3}. The second fragment, at a distance of {approx}800 astronomical units, is also optically thick to its own cooling radiation from molecular hydrogen lines, but is still able to cool via collision-induced emission. The two dense peaks will continue to accrete from the surrounding cold gas reservoir over a period of {approx} 10{sup 5} years and will likely form a binary star system.

  9. Analysis of initial reactions of MALDI based on chemical properties of matrixes and excitation condition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lai, Yin-Hung; Wang, Chia-Chen; Chen, Chiu Wen; Liu, Bo-Hong; Lin, Sheng Hsien; Lee, Yuan Tseh; Wang, Yi-Sheng

    2012-08-16

    This investigation concerns the initial chemical reactions that affect the ionization of matrixes in matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization (MALDI). The study focuses on the relaxations of photon energy that occur on a comparable time scale to that of ionization, in which the available laser energy is shared and the ionization condition is changed. The relaxations include fluorescence, fragmentation, and nonradiative relaxation from the excited state to the ground state. With high absorption cross section and long excited-state lifetime, photoionization of matrix plays an important role if sufficient laser energy is used. Under other conditions, thermal ionization of the molecule in the ground state is predicted to be one of the important reactions. Evidence of change in the branching ratio of initial reactions with the matrix and the excitation wavelength was obtained with α-cyano-4-hydroxycinnamic acid, sinapinic acid, 2,5-dihydroxybenzoic acid, and 2,4,6-trihydroxyacetophenone. These matrixes are studied by obtaining their mixed crystal absorption spectra, fluorescence properties, laser-induced infrared emission, and product ions. The exact ionization pathway depends on the chemical properties of matrixes and the excitation conditions. This concept may explain the diversity of experimental results observed in MALDI experiments, which provides an insight into the ensemble of chemical reactions that govern the generation of ions.

  10. Influence of initial conditions on granular dynamics near the jamming transitionInfluence of initial conditions on granular dynamics near the jamming transition

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Windows-Yule, C.R.K.; Rosato, A.D.; Rivas Abud, N.A.; Parker, D.J.

    2014-01-01

    n this paper, we compare the behaviours of two vibrofluidized granular systems, identical in terms of their composition, geometry and driving parameters, differing only in their initial conditions. It is found that, by increasing the strength with which a system is initially excited, considerable di

  11. Conformal models of de Sitter space, initial conditions for inflation and the CMB

    CERN Document Server

    Lasenby, A; Lasenby, Anthony; Doran, Chris

    2004-01-01

    Conformal embedding of closed-universe models in a de Sitter background suggests a quantisation condition on the available conformal time. This condition implies that the universe is closed at no greater than the 10% level. When a massive scalar field is introduced to drive an inflationary phase this figure is reduced to closure at nearer the 1% level. In order to enforce the constraint on the available conformal time we need to consider conditions in the universe before the onset of inflation. A formal series around the initial singularity is constructed, which rests on a pair of dimensionless, scale-invariant parameters. For physically-acceptable models we find that both parameters are of order unity, so no fine tuning is required, except in the mass of the scalar field. For typical values of the input parameters we predict the observed values of the cosmological parameters, including the magnitude of the cosmological constant. The model produces a very good fit to the most recent CMBR data, predicting a lo...

  12. Spin-up behavior and effects of initial conditions for an integrated hydrologic model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seck, Alimatou; Welty, Claire; Maxwell, Reed M.

    2015-04-01

    Initial conditions have been shown to have a strong effect on outputs of surface water models, but their impact on integrated hydrologic models is not well documented. We investigated the effects of initial conditions on an integrated hydrologic model of a 5632 km2 domain in the northeastern U.S. Simulations were run for the year 1980 using four initial conditions spanning a range of average depth to water table, including 1 m ("wet"), 3m, 5m, and 7 m ("dry") below land surface. Model outputs showed significant effects of initial conditions on basin-averaged variables such as subsurface storage, surface storage, and surface runoff, with the greatest impact observed on surface storage and runoff. Effects of initial conditions were related to meteorological conditions, with precipitation reducing the effects of initial conditions on surface storage and runoff. Additionally, feedbacks between soil moisture and land-energy fluxes affected the impacts of initial conditions: higher temperatures magnified the differences in storage, recharge, and discharge among the four initial-condition scenarios. Ten year recursive runs were conducted for the wet and dry scenarios. Spin-up times varied by model components and were considerably smaller for land-surface states and fluxes. Spin-up for dry initial conditions was slower than for wet initial conditions, indicating longer system memory for dry initial conditions. These variations in persistence of initial conditions should be taken into consideration when designing model initialization approaches. More broadly, this behavior is indicative of increased persistence of the effects of dry years as opposed to wet years in hydrologic systems.

  13. On the Initial Conditions for Star Formation and the IMF

    CERN Document Server

    Elmegreen, Bruce G

    2011-01-01

    Density probability distribution functions (PDFs) for turbulent self-gravitating clouds should be convolutions of the local log-normal PDF, which depends on the local average density rho-ave and Mach number M, and the probability distribution functions for rho-ave and M, which depend on the overall cloud structure. When self-gravity drives a cloud to increased central density, the total PDF develops an extended tail. If there is a critical density or column density for star formation, then the fraction of the local mass exceeding this threshold becomes higher near the cloud center. These elements of cloud structure should be in place before significant star formation begins. Then the efficiency is high so that bound clusters form rapidly, and the stellar initial mass function (IMF) has an imprint in the gas before destructive radiation from young stars can erase it. The IMF could arise from a power-law distribution of mass for cloud structure. These structures should form stars down to the thermal Jeans mass ...

  14. Self-propulsion and crossing statistics under random initial conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hubert, M.; Labousse, M.; Perrard, S.

    2017-06-01

    We investigate the crossing of an energy barrier by a self-propelled particle described by a Rayleigh friction term. We reveal the existence of a sharp transition in the external force field whereby the amplitude dramatically increases. This corresponds to a saddle point transition in the velocity flow phase space, as would be expected for any type of repulsive force field. We use this approach to rationalize the results obtained by Eddi et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 102, 240401 (2009), 10.1103/PhysRevLett.102.240401] who studied the interaction between a drop propelled by its accompanying wave field and a submarine obstacle. This wave particle entity can overcome potential barrier, suggesting the existence of a "macroscopic tunneling effect." We show that the effect of self-propulsion is sufficiently strong to generate crossing of the high-energy barrier. By assuming a random distribution of initial angles, we define a probability distribution to cross the potential barrier that matches with the data of Eddi et al. This probability is similar to the one encountered in statistical physics for Hamiltonian systems, i.e., a Boltzmann exponential law.

  15. Cold Dark Clouds: The Initial Conditions for Star Formation

    CERN Document Server

    Bergin, Edwin A

    2007-01-01

    Cold dark clouds are nearby members of the densest and coldest phase in the galactic interstellar medium, and represent the most accessible sites where stars like our Sun are currently being born. In this review we discuss recent progress in their study, including the newly discovered infrared dark clouds that are likely precursors to stellar clusters. At large scales, dark clouds present filamentary mass distributions with motions dominated by supersonic turbulence. At small, sub-parsec scales, a population of subsonic starless cores provides a unique glimpse of the conditions prior to stellar birth. Recent studies of starless cores reveal a combination of simple physical properties together with a complex chemical structure dominated by the freeze-out of molecules onto cold dust grains. Elucidating this combined structure is both an observational and theoretical challenge whose solution will bring us closer to understanding how molecular gas condenses to form stars.

  16. Cl atom initiated oxidation of 1-alkenes under atmospheric conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walavalkar, M.; Sharma, A.; Alwe, H. D.; Pushpa, K. K.; Dhanya, S.; Naik, P. D.; Bajaj, P. N.

    2013-03-01

    In view of the importance of the oxidation pathways of alkenes in the troposphere, and the significance of Cl atom as an oxidant in marine boundary layer (MBL) and polluted industrial atmosphere, the reactions of four 1-alkenes (C6-C9) with Cl atoms are investigated. The rate coefficients at 298 K are measured to be (4.0 ± 0.5), (4.4 ± 0.7), (5.5 ± 0.9) and (5.9 ± 1.7) × 10-10 cm3 molecule-1 s-1 for 1-hexene, 1-heptene, 1-octene and 1-nonene, respectively. The quoted errors include the experimental 2σ, along with the error in the reference rate coefficients. From the systematic increase in the rate coefficients with the number of carbon atoms, an approximate value for the average rate coefficient for hydrogen abstraction per CH2 group in alkenes is estimated to be (4.9 ± 0.3) × 10-11 cm3 molecule-1 s-1. Based on these rate coefficients, the contribution of Cl atom reactions towards the degradation of these molecules is found to be comparable to that of OH radical reactions, under MBL conditions. The products identified in gas phase indicate that Cl atom addition occurs mainly at the terminal carbon, leading to the formation of 1-chloro-2-ketones and 1-chloro-2-ols. The major gas phase products from the alkenyl radicals (formed by H atom abstraction) are different positional isomers of long chain enols and enones. A preference for dissociation leading to an allyl radical, resulting in aldehydes, lower by three carbon atoms, is indicated. The observed relative yields suggest that in general, the increased contribution of the reactions of Cl atoms towards degradation of 1-alkenes in NOx free air does not result in an increase in the generation of small aldehydes (carbon number < 4), including chloroethanal, as compared to that in the reaction of 1-butene.

  17. Assessing the impact of soil moisture initialization on seasonal predictions using the NCEP AGCM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, C.; Mitchell, K.

    2002-12-01

    Due to the lack of long-term consistent soil moisture analysis, numerical studies of the impact of soil moisture on medium to seasonal range forecasts are often based on extreme or idealized conditions. In this study, the atmospheric predictability at seasonal scale is investigated using soil moisture analyses that are more realistic and model consistent. This is accomplished using the Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) Agricultural Meteorology modeling system (AGRMET), an operational global database of land surface states and energy/water fluxes, and the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS), a state-of-the-art general circulation model. AFWA incorporated the NCEP community NOAH Land Surface Model (NOAH LSM) into AGRMET in late 1999. The soil hydrology physics are forced with analyses of shelter height temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed, short and longwave radition, and precipitation. As part of the efforts to unify land model in all NCEP global and regional models, NOAH LSM has been implemented into GFS in 2002. As AGRMET land states have spun up using same land physics that GFS executes, they provide ideal source of initial land states that are strictly self consistent with GFS land physics. Two sets of summer-time ensemble integration of atmospheric model will be performed, one using climatological soil wetness derived from the NCEP/DOE Reanalysis (R-2) and the other using AGRMET soil wetness analysis as initial conditions. The geographical variations of the predictability of soil wetness, precipitation, and near surface temperature will be examined from this dataset.

  18. Dependence of River Network Scaling and Geomorphic Properties on Initial Conditions in Landscape Evolution Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poore, G. M.; Kieffer, S. W.

    2008-12-01

    Initial conditions affect river network scaling and geomorphic properties, but the effect has not been systematically studied. Previous numerical and experimental studies have found that initial conditions affect river network drainage patterns, determining whether patterns are more parallel or more dendritic. They have also found that some network properties depend on initial conditions. We investigated the effect of initial conditions in the context of numerical models, using simulations of a stream power law. A common initial condition consists of a flat or sloping surface combined with random fluctuations in elevation. We used these initial conditions and focused on the effect of the magnitude of initial slope and the magnitude of initial randomness on standard network scaling and geomorphic properties, such as the Hack exponent, sinuosity, and hypsometry. Preliminary results indicate that some of the scaling and geomorphic properties show a strong dependence on initial conditions, while others exhibit little or no dependence. The strength of dependence can be sensitive to the statistical methods employed. Our results are relevant to numerical and analog modeling methodologies. The results suggest that initial conditions deserve greater consideration in attempts to understand the emergence of scaling in river networks.

  19. The conditions that promote fear learning: prediction error and Pavlovian fear conditioning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Susan Shi Yuan; McNally, Gavan P

    2014-02-01

    A key insight of associative learning theory is that learning depends on the actions of prediction error: a discrepancy between the actual and expected outcomes of a conditioning trial. When positive, such error causes increments in associative strength and, when negative, such error causes decrements in associative strength. Prediction error can act directly on fear learning by determining the effectiveness of the aversive unconditioned stimulus or indirectly by determining the effectiveness, or associability, of the conditioned stimulus. Evidence from a variety of experimental preparations in human and non-human animals suggest that discrete neural circuits code for these actions of prediction error during fear learning. Here we review the circuits and brain regions contributing to the neural coding of prediction error during fear learning and highlight areas of research (safety learning, extinction, and reconsolidation) that may profit from this approach to understanding learning.

  20. Observing versus Predicting: Initial Patterns of Filling Predict Long-Term Adherence More Accurately Than High-Dimensional Modeling Techniques.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franklin, Jessica M; Shrank, William H; Lii, Joyce; Krumme, Alexis K; Matlin, Olga S; Brennan, Troyen A; Choudhry, Niteesh K

    2016-02-01

    Despite the proliferation of databases with increasingly rich patient data, prediction of medication adherence remains poor. We proposed and evaluated approaches for improved adherence prediction. We identified Medicare beneficiaries who received prescription drug coverage through CVS Caremark and initiated a statin. A total of 643 variables were identified at baseline from prior claims and linked Census data. In addition, we identified three postbaseline predictors, indicators of adherence to statins during each of the first 3 months of follow-up. We estimated 10 models predicting subsequent adherence, using logistic regression and boosted logistic regression, a nonparametric data-mining technique. Models were also estimated within strata defined by the index days supply. In 77,703 statin initiators, prediction using baseline variables only was poor with maximum cross-validated C-statistics of 0.606 and 0.577 among patients with index supply ≤30 days and >30 days, respectively. Using only indicators of initial statin adherence improved prediction accuracy substantially among patients with shorter initial dispensings (C = 0.827/0.518), and, when combined with investigator-specified variables, prediction accuracy was further improved (C = 0.842/0.596). Observed adherence immediately after initiation predicted future adherence for patients whose initial dispensings were relatively short. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

  1. Fuel Conditioning Facility Electrorefiner Model Predictions versus Measurements

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    D Vaden

    2007-10-01

    Electrometallurgical treatment of spent nuclear fuel is performed in the Fuel Conditioning Facility (FCF) at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) by electrochemically separating uranium from the fission products and structural materials in a vessel called an electrorefiner (ER). To continue processing without waiting for sample analyses to assess process conditions, an ER process model predicts the composition of the ER inventory and effluent streams via multicomponent, multi-phase chemical equilibrium for chemical reactions and a numerical solution to differential equations for electro-chemical transport. The results of the process model were compared to the electrorefiner measured data.

  2. Predicting tree pollen season start dates using thermal conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myszkowska, Dorota

    2014-01-01

    Thermal conditions at the beginning of the year determine the timing of pollen seasons of early flowering trees. The aims of this study were to quantify the relationship between the tree pollen season start dates and the thermal conditions just before the beginning of the season and to construct models predicting the start of the pollen season in a given year. The study was performed in Krakow (Southern Poland); the pollen data of Alnus, Corylus and Betula were obtained in 1991-2012 using a volumetric method. The relationship between the tree pollen season start, calculated by the cumulated pollen grain sum method, and a 5-day running means of maximum (for Alnus and Corylus) and mean (for Betula) daily temperature was found and used in the logistic regression models. The estimation of model parameters indicated their statistically significance for all studied taxa; the odds ratio was higher in models for Betula, comparing to Alnus and Corylus. The proposed model makes the accuracy of prediction in 83.58 % of cases for Alnus, in 84.29 % of cases for Corylus and in 90.41 % of cases for Betula. In years of model verification (2011 and 2012), the season start of Alnus and Corylus was predicted more precisely in 2011, while in case of Betula, the model predictions achieved 100 % of accuracy in both years. The correctness of prediction indicated that the data used for the model arrangement fitted the models well and stressed the high efficacy of model prediction estimated using the pollen data in 1991-2010.

  3. Dependence on Initial Conditions in a Numerical Model of River Network Formation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poore, Geoffrey; Kieffer, Susan

    2009-03-01

    We investigated the effect of initial conditions on river network formation, using a simple model of erosional dynamics. Previous research suggests that river network scaling and geomorphic properties may be sensitive to initial conditions, but this has not been systematically studied. We used simulations of a stream power law, with initial conditions consisting of a flat or sloping surface combined with random fluctuations in elevation, and considered dependence of steady-state solutions on initial slope and randomness. The sinuosity exponent and the sinuosity are sensitive to these initial conditions, while the Hack exponent and hypsometry show little or no sensitivity. The results suggest that initial conditions deserve greater consideration in attempts to understand the emergence of scaling in river networks.

  4. Synthetic Spectra and Colors of Young Giant Planet Atmospheres: Effects of Initial Conditions and Atmospheric Metallicity

    CERN Document Server

    Fortney, Jonathan J; Saumon, Didier; Lodders, Katharina

    2008-01-01

    We examine the spectra and infrared colors of the cool methane-dominated atmospheres at Teff < 1400 K expected for young gas giant planets. We couple these spectral calculations to an updated version of the Marley et al. (2007) giant planet thermal evolution models that include formation by core accretion-gas capture. These relatively cool "young Jupiters" can be 1-6 magnitudes fainter than predicted by standard cooling tracks that include a traditional initial condition, which may provide a diagnostic of formation. If correct, this would make true Jupiter-like planets much more difficult to detect at young ages than previously thought. Since Jupiter and Saturn are of distinctly super-solar composition, we examine emitted spectra for model planets at both solar metallicity and a metallicity of 5 times solar. These metal-enhanced young Jupiters have lower pressure photospheres than field brown dwarfs of the same effective temperatures arising from both lower surface gravities and enhanced atmospheric opacit...

  5. The eccentricity in heavy-ion collisions from Color Glass Condensate initial conditions

    CERN Document Server

    Drescher, H J; Hayashigaki, A; Nara, Y; Drescher, Hans-Joachim; Dumitru, Adrian; Hayashigaki, Arata; Nara, Yasushi

    2006-01-01

    The eccentricity in coordinate-space at midrapidity of the overlap zone in high-energy heavy-ion collisions predicted by the $k_\\perp$-factorization formalism is generically larger than expected from scaling with the number of participants. We provide a simple qualitative explanation of the effect which shows that it is not caused predominantly by edge effects. We also show that it is quite insensitive to ``details'' of the unintegrated gluon distribution functions such as the presence of leading-twist shadowing and of an extended geometric scaling window. Finally, we point out that the longitudinal structure of the Color Glass Condensate initial condition for hydrodynamics away from midrapidity is non-trivial but requires understanding of large-$x$ effects.

  6. Initial prediction of dust production in pebble bed reactors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Rostamian

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes the computational simulation of contact zones between pebbles in a pebble bed reactor. In this type of reactor, the potential for graphite dust generation from frictional contact of graphite pebbles and the subsequent transport of dust and fission products can cause significant safety issues at very high temperatures around 900 °C in HTRs. The present simulation is an initial attempt to quantify the amount of nuclear grade graphite dust produced within a very high temperature reactor.

  7. Predicting Siltation in Entrance Channel Based on Wind Conditions

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    The siltation induced by wind waves in an entrance channel is one of the prime factors influencing the operation efficiency of a port. It is necessary to predict the siltation accurately for dredging and ship operation passing through the entrance of the port. However, it is difficult to apply the traditional method to predicting entrance siltation because of its complex computational procedure and lacking the data of ocean dynamic elements in the specified sea area. From the view of energy conservation, a direct relationship between wind conditions and sediment deposition can be founded. On the basis of the above methodology, an empirical formula expressed by wind conditions for forecasting the siltation in the entrance channel is set up. The wind conditions are easily obtained from the local meteorological stations or weather maps, so the formula established in this paper is more convenient and practical than the traditional method. A case study is provided, in which the emopirical formula is calibrated and verified utilizing the measured wind and siltation conditions in the entrance channel of the port. Comparisons between computed values and measured data show satisfactory agreement.

  8. Video compression using conditional replenishment and motion prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hein, D. N.; Ahmed, N.

    1984-01-01

    A study of a low-rate monochrome video compression system is presentd in this paper. This system is a conditional-replenishment coder that uses two-dimensional Walsh-transform coding within each video frame. The conditional-replenishment algorithm works by transmitting only the portions of an image that are changing in time. This system is augmented with a motn-prediction algorithm that measures spatial dispalcement parameters from frame to frame, and codes the data using these parameters. A comparison is made between the conditional-replenishment system with, and without, the motion-predictinalgorthm. Subsampling in time is ued to maintain the data rate rate at a fixed value. Average bit rates of 1 bit/picture element (pel) to 1/16 bit/pel are considered. The resultant performance of the compression simulations is presented in terms of the average frame rates produced.

  9. Prediction and Mitigation of Crush Conditions in Emergency Evacuations

    CERN Document Server

    Harding, Peter J; Gwynne, Steve

    2008-01-01

    Several simulation environments exist for the simulation of large-scale evacuations of buildings, ships, or other enclosed spaces. These offer sophisticated tools for the study of human behaviour, the recreation of environmental factors such as fire or smoke, and the inclusion of architectural or structural features, such as elevators, pillars and exits. Although such simulation environments can provide insights into crowd behaviour, they lack the ability to examine potentially dangerous forces building up within a crowd. These are commonly referred to as crush conditions, and are a common cause of death in emergency evacuations. In this paper, we describe a methodology for the prediction and mitigation of crush conditions. The paper is organised as follows. We first establish the need for such a model, defining the main factors that lead to crush conditions, and describing several exemplar case studies. We then examine current methods for studying crush, and describe their limitations. From this, we develop ...

  10. Receptivity to alcohol marketing predicts initiation of alcohol use.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henriksen, Lisa; Feighery, Ellen C; Schleicher, Nina C; Fortmann, Stephen P

    2008-01-01

    This longitudinal study examined the influence of alcohol advertising and promotions on the initiation of alcohol use. A measure of receptivity to alcohol marketing was developed from research about tobacco marketing. Recall and recognition of alcohol brand names were also examined. Data were obtained from in-class surveys of sixth, seventh, and eighth graders at baseline and 12-month follow-up. Participants who were classified as never drinkers at baseline (n = 1,080) comprised the analysis sample. Logistic regression models examined the association of advertising receptivity at baseline with any alcohol use and current drinking at follow-up, adjusting for multiple risk factors, including peer alcohol use, school performance, risk taking, and demographics. At baseline, 29% of never drinkers either owned or wanted to use an alcohol branded promotional item (high receptivity), 12% students named the brand of their favorite alcohol ad (moderate receptivity), and 59% were not receptive to alcohol marketing. Approximately 29% of adolescents reported any alcohol use at follow-up; 13% reported drinking at least 1 or 2 days in the past month. Never drinkers who reported high receptivity to alcohol marketing at baseline were 77% more likely to initiate drinking by follow-up than those were not receptive. Smaller increases in the odds of alcohol use at follow-up were associated with better recall and recognition of alcohol brand names at baseline. Alcohol advertising and promotions are associated with the uptake of drinking. Prevention programs may reduce adolescents' receptivity to alcohol marketing by limiting their exposure to alcohol ads and promotions and by increasing their skepticism about the sponsors' marketing tactics.

  11. Terrestrial planet formation in low-mass disks: dependence with initial conditions

    CERN Document Server

    Ronco, María Paula; Guilera, Octavio Miguel

    2014-01-01

    In general, most of the studies of terrestrial-type planet formation typically use ad hoc initial conditions. In this work we improved the initial conditions described in Ronco & de El\\'ia (2014) starting with a semi-analytical model wich simulates the evolution of the protoplanetary disk during the gas phase. The results of the semi-analytical model are then used as initial conditions for the N-body simulations. We show that the planetary systems considered are not sensitive to the particular initial distribution of embryos and planetesimals and thus, the results are globally similar to those found in the previous work.

  12. Analysis of the Conformally Flat Approximation for Binary Neutron Star Initial Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    In-Saeng Suh

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The spatially conformally flat approximation (CFA is a viable method to deduce initial conditions for the subsequent evolution of binary neutron stars employing the full Einstein equations. Here we analyze the viability of the CFA for the general relativistic hydrodynamic initial conditions of binary neutron stars. We illustrate the stability of the conformally flat condition on the hydrodynamics by numerically evolving ~100 quasicircular orbits. We illustrate the use of this approximation for orbiting neutron stars in the quasicircular orbit approximation to demonstrate the equation of state dependence of these initial conditions and how they might affect the emergent gravitational wave frequency as the stars approach the innermost stable circular orbit.

  13. The Predictive Control Method of VAV Air Conditioning System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiejia LI

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Aiming at the characteristics which variable air volume air conditioning system is multi-variable, nonlinear and uncertain system, normal fuzzy neural network is hard to meet the requirements which dynamic control of multi-variable. In this paper, we put forward a recursive neural network predictive control strategy based on wavelet neural network model. Through recursive wavelet neural network predictor on line established controlled object’s mathematical model, and using Elman neural network controller on line corrected information we get, thus to improve control effect. The simulation results show that recursive wavelet neural network predictive control has stronger robustness and adaptive ability, high control precision, better and reliable control effect and other advantages.

  14. Still at the choice-point: action selection and initiation in instrumental conditioning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balleine, Bernard W; Ostlund, Sean B

    2007-05-01

    Contrary to classic stimulus-response (S-R) theory, recent evidence suggests that, in instrumental conditioning, rats encode the relationship between their actions and the specific consequences that these actions produce. It has remained unclear, however, how encoding this relationship acts to control instrumental performance. Although S-R theories were able to give a clear account of how learning translates into performance, the argument that instrumental learning constitutes the acquisition of information of the form "response R leads to outcome O" does not directly imply a particular performance rule or policy; this information can be used both to perform R and to avoid performing R. Recognition of this problem has forced the development of accounts that allow the O and stimuli that predict the O (i.e., S-O) to play a role in the initiation of specific Rs. In recent experiments, we have used a variety of behavioral procedures in an attempt to isolate the processes that contribute to instrumental performance, including outcome devaluation, reinstatement, and Pavlovian-instrumental transfer. Our results, particularly from experiments assessing outcome-selective reinstatement, suggest that both "feed-forward" (O-R) and "feed-back" (R-O) associations are critical and that although the former appear to be important to response selection, the latter-together with processes that determine outcome value-mediate response initiation. We discuss a conceptual model that integrates these processes and its neural implementation.

  15. Visual Bias Predicts Gait Adaptability in Novel Sensory Discordant Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brady, Rachel A.; Batson, Crystal D.; Peters, Brian T.; Mulavara, Ajitkumar P.; Bloomberg, Jacob J.

    2010-01-01

    We designed a gait training study that presented combinations of visual flow and support-surface manipulations to investigate the response of healthy adults to novel discordant sensorimotor conditions. We aimed to determine whether a relationship existed between subjects visual dependence and their postural stability and cognitive performance in a new discordant environment presented at the conclusion of training (Transfer Test). Our training system comprised a treadmill placed on a motion base facing a virtual visual scene that provided a variety of sensory challenges. Ten healthy adults completed 3 training sessions during which they walked on a treadmill at 1.1 m/s while receiving discordant support-surface and visual manipulations. At the first visit, in an analysis of normalized torso translation measured in a scene-movement-only condition, 3 of 10 subjects were classified as visually dependent. During the Transfer Test, all participants received a 2-minute novel exposure. In a combined measure of stride frequency and reaction time, the non-visually dependent subjects showed improved adaptation on the Transfer Test compared to their visually dependent counterparts. This finding suggests that individual differences in the ability to adapt to new sensorimotor conditions may be explained by individuals innate sensory biases. An accurate preflight assessment of crewmembers biases for visual dependence could be used to predict their propensities to adapt to novel sensory conditions. It may also facilitate the development of customized training regimens that could expedite adaptation to alternate gravitational environments.

  16. Economic conditions predict prevalence of West Nile virus.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ryan J Harrigan

    Full Text Available Understanding the conditions underlying the proliferation of infectious diseases is crucial for mitigating future outbreaks. Since its arrival in North America in 1999, West Nile virus (WNV has led to population-wide declines of bird species, morbidity and mortality of humans, and expenditures of millions of dollars on treatment and control. To understand the environmental conditions that best explain and predict WNV prevalence, we employed recently developed spatial modeling techniques in a recognized WNV hotspot, Orange County, California. Our models explained 85-95% of the variation of WNV prevalence in mosquito vectors, and WNV presence in secondary human hosts. Prevalence in both vectors and humans was best explained by economic variables, specifically per capita income, and by anthropogenic characteristics of the environment, particularly human population and neglected swimming pool density. While previous studies have shown associations between anthropogenic change and pathogen presence, results show that poorer economic conditions may act as a direct surrogate for environmental characteristics related to WNV prevalence. Low-income areas may be associated with higher prevalence for a number of reasons, including variations in property upkeep, microhabitat conditions conducive to viral amplification in both vectors and hosts, host community composition, and human behavioral responses related to differences in education or political participation. Results emphasize the importance and utility of including economic variables in mapping spatial risk assessments of disease.

  17. Influence of thermalization on the initial condition for heavy ion collisions

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHAO AMeng; SUN WeiMin; ZONG HongShi

    2014-01-01

    In this paper,we discuss the important role of the thermalization process in the initial distribution of QGP.We find that the negligible heat conduction inside QGP can be expressed as an effective Fourier law and we further analyse qualitatively the results caused by a thermalized initial condition.Based on this arguments,we construct a simple phenomenological model and work with the hydro code,and then we compare our results with the experimental data and the results of the standard initial model.It is found that,as we have argued,a thermalized initial condition suppresses the value of the elliptic flow.

  18. Arc Jet Facility Test Condition Predictions Using the ADSI Code

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palmer, Grant; Prabhu, Dinesh; Terrazas-Salinas, Imelda

    2015-01-01

    The Aerothermal Design Space Interpolation (ADSI) tool is used to interpolate databases of previously computed computational fluid dynamic solutions for test articles in a NASA Ames arc jet facility. The arc jet databases are generated using an Navier-Stokes flow solver using previously determined best practices. The arc jet mass flow rates and arc currents used to discretize the database are chosen to span the operating conditions possible in the arc jet, and are based on previous arc jet experimental conditions where possible. The ADSI code is a database interpolation, manipulation, and examination tool that can be used to estimate the stagnation point pressure and heating rate for user-specified values of arc jet mass flow rate and arc current. The interpolation is performed in the other direction (predicting mass flow and current to achieve a desired stagnation point pressure and heating rate). ADSI is also used to generate 2-D response surfaces of stagnation point pressure and heating rate as a function of mass flow rate and arc current (or vice versa). Arc jet test data is used to assess the predictive capability of the ADSI code.

  19. Quantifying Uncertainty in Model Predictions for the Pliocene (Plio-QUMP): Initial results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pope, J.O.; Collins, M.; Haywood, A.M.; Dowsett, H.J.; Hunter, S.J.; Lunt, D.J.; Pickering, S.J.; Pound, M.J.

    2011-01-01

    Examination of the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP; ~. 3.3 to 3.0. Ma BP) provides an excellent opportunity to test the ability of climate models to reproduce warm climate states, thereby assessing our confidence in model predictions. To do this it is necessary to relate the uncertainty in model simulations of mPWP climate to uncertainties in projections of future climate change. The uncertainties introduced by the model can be estimated through the use of a Perturbed Physics Ensemble (PPE). Developing on the UK Met Office Quantifying Uncertainty in Model Predictions (QUMP) Project, this paper presents the results from an initial investigation using the end members of a PPE in a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean model (HadCM3) running with appropriate mPWP boundary conditions. Prior work has shown that the unperturbed version of HadCM3 may underestimate mPWP sea surface temperatures at higher latitudes. Initial results indicate that neither the low sensitivity nor the high sensitivity simulations produce unequivocally improved mPWP climatology relative to the standard. Whilst the high sensitivity simulation was able to reconcile up to 6 ??C of the data/model mismatch in sea surface temperatures in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere (relative to the standard simulation), it did not produce a better prediction of global vegetation than the standard simulation. Overall the low sensitivity simulation was degraded compared to the standard and high sensitivity simulations in all aspects of the data/model comparison. The results have shown that a PPE has the potential to explore weaknesses in mPWP modelling simulations which have been identified by geological proxies, but that a 'best fit' simulation will more likely come from a full ensemble in which simulations that contain the strengths of the two end member simulations shown here are combined. ?? 2011 Elsevier B.V.

  20. Multi-model assessment of the impact of soil moisture initialization on mid-latitude summer predictability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ardilouze, Constantin; Batté, L.; Bunzel, F.; Decremer, D.; Déqué, M.; Doblas-Reyes, F. J.; Douville, H.; Fereday, D.; Guemas, V.; MacLachlan, C.; Müller, W.; Prodhomme, C.

    2017-02-01

    Land surface initial conditions have been recognized as a potential source of predictability in sub-seasonal to seasonal forecast systems, at least for near-surface air temperature prediction over the mid-latitude continents. Yet, few studies have systematically explored such an influence over a sufficient hindcast period and in a multi-model framework to produce a robust quantitative assessment. Here, a dedicated set of twin experiments has been carried out with boreal summer retrospective forecasts over the 1992-2010 period performed by five different global coupled ocean-atmosphere models. The impact of a realistic versus climatological soil moisture initialization is assessed in two regions with high potential previously identified as hotspots of land-atmosphere coupling, namely the North American Great Plains and South-Eastern Europe. Over the latter region, temperature predictions show a significant improvement, especially over the Balkans. Forecast systems better simulate the warmest summers if they follow pronounced dry initial anomalies. It is hypothesized that models manage to capture a positive feedback between high temperature and low soil moisture content prone to dominate over other processes during the warmest summers in this region. Over the Great Plains, however, improving the soil moisture initialization does not lead to any robust gain of forecast quality for near-surface temperature. It is suggested that models biases prevent the forecast systems from making the most of the improved initial conditions.

  1. Effects of the initial conditions on cosmological $N$-body simulations

    CERN Document Server

    L'Huillier, Benjamin; Kim, Juhan

    2014-01-01

    Cosmology is entering an era of percent level precision due to current large observational surveys. This precision in observation is now demanding more accuracy from numerical methods and cosmological simulations. In this paper, we study the accuracy of $N$-body numerical simulations and their dependence on changes in the initial conditions and in the simulation algorithms. For this purpose, we use a series of cosmological $N$-body simulations with varying initial conditions. We test the influence of the initial conditions, namely the pre-initial configuration (preIC), the order of the Lagrangian perturbation theory (LPT), and the initial redshift, on the statistics associated with the large scale structures of the universe such as the halo mass function, the density power spectrum, and the maximal extent of the large scale structures. We find that glass or grid pre-initial conditions give similar results at $z\\lesssim 2$. However, the initial excess of power in the glass initial conditions yields a subtle di...

  2. Determination of Initial Conditions for the Safety Analysis by Random Sampling of Operating Parameters

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jeong, Hae-Yong; Park, Moon-Ghu [Sejong University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-05-15

    In most existing evaluation methodologies, which follow a conservative approach, the most conservative initial conditions are searched for each transient scenario through tremendous assessment for wide operating windows or limiting conditions for operation (LCO) allowed by the operating guidelines. In this procedure, a user effect could be involved and a remarkable time and human resources are consumed. In the present study, we investigated a more effective statistical method for the selection of the most conservative initial condition by the use of random sampling of operating parameters affecting the initial conditions. A method for the determination of initial conditions based on random sampling of plant design parameters is proposed. This method is expected to be applied for the selection of the most conservative initial plant conditions in the safety analysis using a conservative evaluation methodology. In the method, it is suggested that the initial conditions of reactor coolant flow rate, pressurizer level, pressurizer pressure, and SG level are adjusted by controlling the pump rated flow, setpoints of PLCS, PPCS, and FWCS, respectively. The proposed technique is expected to contribute to eliminate the human factors introduced in the conventional safety analysis procedure and also to reduce the human resources invested in the safety evaluation of nuclear power plants.

  3. Silent initial conditions for cosmological perturbations with a change of space-time signature

    CERN Document Server

    Mielczarek, Jakub; Barrau, Aurelien

    2014-01-01

    Recent calculations in loop quantum cosmology suggest that a transition from a Lorentzian to an Euclidean space-time might take place in the very early Universe. The transition point leads to a state of silence, characterized by a vanishing speed of light. This behavior can be interpreted as a decoupling of different space points, similar to the one characterizing the BKL phase. In this study, we address the issue of imposing initial conditions for the cosmological perturbations at the transition point between the Lorentzian and Euclidean phases. Motivated by the decoupling of space points, initial conditions characterized by a lack of correlations are investigated. We show that the "white noise" initial conditions are supported by the analysis of the vacuum state in the Euclidean regime adjacent to the state of silence. Furthermore, the possibility of imposing the silent initial conditions at the trans-Planckian surface, characterized by a vanishing speed for the propagation of modes with wavelengths of the ...

  4. Solutions to Fractional Differential Equations with Nonlocal Initial Condition in Banach Spaces

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liang Jin

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available A new existence and uniqueness theorem is given for solutions to differential equations involving the Caputo fractional derivative with nonlocal initial condition in Banach spaces. An application is also given.

  5. Are turbulent spheres suitable initial conditions for star-forming clouds?

    OpenAIRE

    2014-01-01

    To date, most numerical simulations of molecular clouds, and star formation within them, assume a uniform density sphere or box with an imposed turbulent velocity field. In this work, we select molecular clouds from galactic scale simulations as initial conditions, increase their resolution, and re-simulate them using the SPH code Gadget2. Our approach provides clouds with morphologies, internal structures, and kinematics that constitute more consistent and realistic initial conditions for si...

  6. Predicting the initial freezing point and water activity of meat products from composition data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sman, van der R.G.M.; Boer, E.P.J.

    2005-01-01

    In this paper we predict the water activity and initial freezing point of food products (meat and fish) based on their composition. The prediction is based on thermodynamics (the Clausius-Clapeyron equation, the Ross equation and an approximation of the Pitzer equation). Furthermore, we have taken t

  7. Novel mathematical model for predicting the dissolution profile of spherical particles under non-sink conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agata, Yasuyoshi; Iwao, Yasunori; Miyagishima, Atsuo; Itai, Shigeru

    2010-04-01

    A mechanistic mathematical model was designed to predict dissolution patterns under non-sink conditions. Sulfamethoxazole was used as a model drug, and its physico-chemical properties such as solubility, density, and intrinsic dissolution rate constant etc., were investigated in order to apply these experimental values to the proposed model. Dissolution tests were employed as a way of validating the mathematical model, and it was found that the predictions given by the model were surprisingly accurate for all particle sizes. In addition, a simulation focused on forecasting the fraction of the drug that was dissolved at a certain time point when various initial particle diameters were used was also particularly valuable. Therefore, these results demonstrated that the model enables dissolution profiles to be analyzed under non-sink conditions.

  8. Prediction of Surface Roughness Based on Machining Condition and Tool Condition in Boring EN31 Steel

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Mohanaraman

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Prediction of Surface roughness plays a vital role in manufacturing process. In manufacturing industries, productions of metallic materials require high surface finish in various components. In the present work, the effect of spindle speed, feed rate, depth of cut and flank wear of the tool on the surface roughness has been studied. Carbide tipped insert was used for boring operation. Experiments were conducted in CNC lathe. The experimental setup was prepared with sixteen levels of cutting parameters and was conducted with two tool tip conditions in dry machining. A piezoelectric accelerometer was used to measure the vibrational signals while machining. The data acquisition card which connected between accelerometer and lab-view software to record the signals. Simple linear and least median regression models were used for prediction of surface roughness. The models were developed by weka analysis software. The best suitable regression model is implemented based on maximum correlation coefficient and the minimum error values.

  9. Using initial and boundary condition perturbations in medium-range regional ensemble forecasting with two nested domains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, J.; Koracin, D.; Vellore, R.; Xiao, M.; Lewis, J. M.

    2010-12-01

    Simulated evolution of climate and weather is sensitive to the specification of their initial state. Small errors in the initial state could lead the forecast into a different direction. It is essential to estimate the impact of the uncertainty in initial conditions on the forecast accuracy. For limited-area or regional forecasting, lateral boundary conditions also have considerable influence on the development of mesoscale or local-scale phenomena. Strong lateral boundary conditions derived from a larger scale environment could significantly alter or even remove local-scale components. This study investigates the impact of uncertainty in initial and lateral boundary conditions on medium-range regional forecasting using the Advanced Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The WRF model was configured with two nested domains: the parent domain has a 108 km horizontal resolution, and a nested domain with 36 km resolution covers the western U.S. The ensemble forecasting was conducted with 50 ensemble members using random perturbations in the initial conditions (ICs) and lateral boundary conditions (LBCs). A case period of 15 days in December 2008 is chosen, during which two intense frontal passages occurred in the western U.S. Results show that, applying only IC perturbations, the contribution from the IC perturbations to the ensemble spread decreases with time. Using both randomly perturbed LBCs and ICs from the coarser domain, the inner nested domain shows a wider ensemble spread. The resulting ensemble forecasting can be interpreted as a probabilistic prediction for wind energy, especially for wind gust and wind turbine operational cut-off. The analysis also includes an efficiency comparison of using coarser ensemble forecasting vs. a higher resolution single control run.

  10. THE ANALYSIS OF THE COMMODITY PRICE FORECASTING SUCCESS CONSIDERING DIFFERENT LENGTHS OF THE INITIAL CONDITION DRIFT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcela Lascsáková

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available In the paper the numerical model based on the exponential approximation of commodity stock exchanges was derived. The price prognoses of aluminium on the London Metal Exchange were determined as numerical solution of the Cauchy initial problem for the 1st order ordinary differential equation. To make the numerical model more accurate the idea of the modification of the initial condition value by the stock exchange was realized. By having analyzed the forecasting success of the chosen initial condition drift types, the initial condition drift providing the most accurate prognoses for the commodity price movements was determined. The suggested modification of the original model made the commodity price prognoses more accurate.

  11. The impact of initial conditions in N-body simulations of debris discs

    CERN Document Server

    Thilliez, E

    2015-01-01

    Numerical simulations are a crucial tool to understand the relationship between debris discs and planetary companions. However, simulations throughout the literature have been conducted with various initial conditions often with little or no justification. In this paper, we aim to study the dependence on the initial conditions of N-body simulations modelling the interaction between a massive and eccentric planet on an exterior debris disc. To achieve this, we first classify three broad approaches used in the literature and provide some physical context for when each category should be used. We then run a series of N-body simulations, that include radiation forces acting on small grains, with varying initial conditions across the three categories. We test the influence of the initial parent body belt width, eccentricity, and alignment with the planet on the resulting debris disc structure and compare the final peak emission location, disc width and offset of synthetic disc images produced with a radiative tran...

  12. Dynamical fine-tuning of initial conditions for small field inflations

    CERN Document Server

    Iso, Satoshi; Shimada, Kengo

    2015-01-01

    Small-field inflation (SFI) is widely considered to be unnatural because an extreme fine-tuning of the initial condition is necessary for sufficiently large e-folding. In this paper, we show that the unnaturally-looking initial condition can be dynamically realised without any fine-tuning if the SFI occurs after rapid oscillations of the inflaton field and particle creations by preheating. In fact, if the inflaton field $\\phi$ is coupled to another scalar field $\\chi$ through the interaction $g^2 \\chi^2 \\phi^2$ and the vacuum energy during the small field inflation is given by $\\lambda M^4$, the initial value can be dynamically set at $(\\sqrt{\\lambda}/g) M^2/M_{\\rm pl}$, which is much smaller than the typical scale of the potential $M.$ This solves the initial condition problem in the new inflation model or some classes of the hilltop inflation models.

  13. Monitoring and modeling conditions for regional shallow landslide initiation in the San Francisco Bay area, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collins, B. D.; Stock, J. D.; Godt, J. W.

    2012-12-01

    Intense winter storms in the San Francisco Bay area (SFBA) of California often trigger widespread landsliding, including debris flows that originate as shallow (initiation thresholds are available for the SFBA, antecedent soil moisture conditions also play a major role in determining the likelihood for landslide generation from a given storm. Previous research has demonstrated that antecedent triggering conditions can be obtained using pre-storm precipitation thresholds (e.g., 250-400 mm of seasonal pre-storm rainfall). However, these types of thresholds do not account for the often cyclic pattern of wetting and drying that can occur early in the winter storm season (i.e. October - December), and which may skew the applicability of precipitation-only based thresholds. To account for these cyclic and constantly evolving soil moisture conditions, we have pursued methods to measure soil moisture directly and integrate these measurements into predictive analyses. During the past three years, the USGS installed a series of four subsurface hydrology monitoring stations in shallow landslide-prone locations of the SFBA to establish a soil-moisture-based antecedent threshold. In addition to soil moisture sensors, the monitoring stations are each equipped with piezometers to record positive pore water pressure that is likely required for shallow landslide initiation and a rain gauge to compare storm intensities with existing precipitation-based thresholds. Each monitoring station is located on a natural, grassy hillslope typically composed of silty sands, underlain by sandstone, sloping at approximately 30°, and with a depth to bedrock of approximately 1 meter - conditions typical of debris flow generation in the SFBA. Our observations reveal that various locations respond differently to seasonal precipitation, with some areas (e.g., Marin County) remaining at higher levels of saturation for longer periods of time during the winter compared to other areas (e.g., the East

  14. A no hair theorem and the problem of initial conditions. [in cosmological model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jensen, Lars Gerhard; Stein-Schabes, Jaime A.

    1987-01-01

    It is shown that under very general conditions, any inhomogeneous cosmological model with a positive cosmological constant that can be described in a synchronous reference system will tend asymptotically in time towards the de Sitter solution. This renders the problem of initial conditions less severe.

  15. The Effect of Corner Modes in the Initial Conditions of Cosmological Simulations

    CERN Document Server

    Falck, B; Neyrinck, M C; Wang, J; Szalay, A S

    2016-01-01

    In view of future high precision large scale structure surveys, it is important to quantify percent and sub-percent level effects in cosmological $N$-body simulations from which theoretical predictions are drawn. One such effect involves the choice of whether to set all modes above the one-dimensional Nyquist frequency, the so-called "corner" modes, to zero in the initial conditions. By comparing simulations with and without these modes, we find that at $z>6$, the difference in the matter power spectrum is large at wavenumbers just below $k_{\\rm{Ny}}$, reducing to below 2% at all scales by $z\\sim 3$. Including corner modes results in a better match between a low-resolution simulation and a high-resolution simulation at wavenumbers around the Nyquist frequency of the low-resolution simulation. The differences in mass functions are 3% for the smallest halos at $z=6$ for the simulation resolution studied here ($m_p \\sim 10^{11}h^{-1}\\,M_{\\odot}$), but we find no significant difference in the stacked profiles of ...

  16. Inner boundary conditions for black hole initial data derived from isolated horizons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaramillo, José Luis; Gourgoulhon, Eric; Marugán, Guillermo A.

    2004-12-01

    We present a set of boundary conditions for solving the elliptic equations in the initial data problem for space-times containing a black hole, together with a number of constraints to be satisfied by the otherwise freely specifiable standard parameters of the conformal thin sandwich formulation. These conditions altogether are sufficient for the construction of a horizon that is instantaneously in equilibrium in the sense of the isolated horizons formalism. We then investigate the application of these conditions to the initial data problem of binary black holes and discuss the relation of our analysis with other proposals that exist in the literature.

  17. Inner boundary conditions for black hole Initial Data derived from Isolated Horizons

    CERN Document Server

    Jaramillo, J L; Mena-Marugán, G A

    2004-01-01

    We present a set of boundary conditions for solving the elliptic equations in the Initial Data problem for space-times containing a black hole, together with a number of constraints to be satisfied by the freely specifiable standard parameters of the Conformal Thin Sandwich formulation. These conditions altogether are sufficient for the construction of a horizon that is instantaneously in equilibrium in the sense of the Isolated Horizons formalism. We then investigate the application of these conditions to the Initial Data problem of binary black holes and discuss the relation of our analysis with other proposals that exist in the literature.

  18. Initial Analysis of and Predictive Model Development for Weather Reroute Advisory Use

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arneson, Heather M.

    2016-01-01

    In response to severe weather conditions, traffic management coordinators specify reroutes to route air traffic around affected regions of airspace. Providing analysis and recommendations of available reroute options would assist the traffic management coordinators in making more efficient rerouting decisions. These recommendations can be developed by examining historical data to determine which previous reroute options were used in similar weather and traffic conditions. Essentially, using previous information to inform future decisions. This paper describes the initial steps and methodology used towards this goal. A method to extract relevant features from the large volume of weather data to quantify the convective weather scenario during a particular time range is presented. Similar routes are clustered. A description of the algorithm to identify which cluster of reroute advisories were actually followed by pilots is described. Models built for fifteen of the top twenty most frequently used reroute clusters correctly predict the use of the cluster for over 60 of the test examples. Results are preliminary but indicate that the methodology is worth pursuing with modifications based on insight gained from this analysis.

  19. Study on ETKF-Based Initial Perturbation Scheme for GRAPES Global Ensemble Prediction

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    MA Xulin; XUE Jishan; LU Weisong

    2009-01-01

    Initial perturbation scheme is one of the important problems for ensemble prediction. In this paper,ensemble initial perturbation scheme for Global/Regional Assimilation and PrEdiction System (GRAPES)global ensemble prediction is developed in terms of the ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF) method.A new GRAPES global ensemble prediction system (GEPS) is also constructed. The spherical simplex 14-member ensemble prediction experiments, using the simulated observation network and error character-lstics of simulated observations and innovation-based inflation, are carried out for about two months. The structure characters and perturbation amplitudes of the ETKF initial perturbations and the perturbation growth characters are analyzed, and their qualities and abilities for the ensemble initial perturbations are given.The preliminary experimental results indicate that the ETKF-based GRAPES ensemble initial perturba- tions could identify main normal structures of analysis error variance and reflect the perturbation amplitudes.The initial perturbations and the spread are reasonable. The initial perturbation variance, which is approx-imately equal to the forecast error variance, is found to respond to changes in the observational spatial variations with simulated observational network density. The perturbations generated through the simplex method are also shown to exhibit a very high degree of consistency between initial analysis and short-range forecast perturbations. The appropriate growth and spread of ensemble perturbations can be maintained up to 96-h lead time. The statistical results for 52-day ensemble forecasts show that the forecast scores of ensemble average for the Northern Hemisphere are higher than that of the control forecast. Provided that using more ensemble members, a real-time observational network and a more appropriate inflation factor,better effects of the ETKF-based initial scheme should be shown.

  20. Neuroscience of inhibition for addiction medicine: From prediction of initiation to prediction of relapse

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moeller, Scott J.; Bederson, Lucia; Alia-Klein, Nelly; Goldstein, Rita Z.

    2017-01-01

    A core deficit in drug addiction is the inability to inhibit maladaptive drug-seeking behavior. Consistent with this deficit, drug-addicted individuals show reliable cross-sectional differences from healthy non-addicted controls during tasks of response inhibition accompanied by brain activation abnormalities as revealed by functional neuroimaging. However, it is less clear whether inhibition-related deficits predate the transition to problematic use, and, in turn, whether these deficits predict the transition out of problematic substance use. Here, we review longitudinal studies of response inhibition in children/adolescents with little substance experience and longitudinal studies of already-addicted individuals attempting to sustain abstinence. Results show that response inhibition, and its underlying neural correlates, predict both substance use outcomes (onset and abstinence). Neurally, key roles were observed for multiple regions of the frontal cortex (e.g., inferior frontal gyrus, dorsal anterior cingulate cortex, and dorsolateral prefrontal cortex). In general, less activation of these regions during response inhibition predicted not only the onset of substance use, but interestingly, also better abstinence-related outcomes among individuals already addicted. The role of subcortical areas, although potentially important, is less clear because of inconsistent results and because these regions are less classically reported in studies of healthy response inhibition. Overall, this review indicates that response inhibition is not simply a manifestation of current drug addiction, but rather a core neurocognitive dimension that predicts key substance use outcomes. Early intervention in inhibitory deficits could have high clinical and public health relevance. PMID:26806776

  1. Analysis of the Conformally Flat Approximation for Binary Neutron Star Initial Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suh, In-Saeng; Mathews, Grant J.; Haywood, J. Reese; Lan, N. Q.

    The spatially conformally flat approximation (CFA) is a viable method to deduce initial conditions for the subsequent evolution of binary neutron stars employing the full Einstein equations. Here we review the status of the original formulation of the CFA for the general relativistic hydrodynamic initial conditions of binary neutron stars. We illustrate the stability of the conformally flat condition on the hydrodynamics by numerically evolving ~100 quasi-circular orbits. We illustrate the use of this approximation for orbiting neutron stars in the quasi-circular orbit approximation to demonstrate the equation of state dependence of these initial conditions and how they might affect the emergent gravitational wave frequency as the stars approach the innermost stable circular orbit.

  2. Hydrologic modification to improve habitat in riverine lakes: Management objectives, experimental approach, and initial conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Barry L.; Barko, John W.; Gerasimov, Yuri; James, William F.; Litvinov, Alexander; Naimo, Teresa J.; Wiener, James G.; Gaugush, Robert F.; Rogala, James T.; Rogers, Sara J.; Schoettger, R.A.

    1996-01-01

    The Finger Lakes habitat-rehabilitation project is intended to improve physical and chemical conditions for fish in six connected back water lakes in Navigation Pool 5 of the upper Missouri River. The primary management objective is to improve water temperature, dissolved oxygen concentration and current velocity during winter for bluegills, Lepomis macrochirus, and black crappies, Pomoxis nigromaculatus, two of the primary sport fishes in the lakes. The lakes will be hydrologically altered by Installing culverts to Introduce controlled flows of oxygenated water into four lakes, and an existing unregulated culvert on a fifth lake will be equipped with a control gate to regulate inflow. These habitat modifications constitute a manipulative field experiment that will compare pre-project (1991 to summer 1993) and post-project (fall 1993 to 1996) conditions in the lakes, including hydrology, chemistry, rooted vegetation, and fish and macroinvertebrate communities. Initial data indicate that the Finger Lakes differ in water chemistry, hydrology, and macrophyte abundance. Macroinvertebrate communities also differed among lakes: species diversity was highest in lakes with dense aquatic macrophytes. The system seems to support a single fish community, although some species concentrated in individual lakes at different times. The introduction of similar flows into five of the lakes will probably reduce the existing physical and chemical differences among lakes. However, our ability to predict the effects of hydrologic modification on fish populations is limited by uncertainties concerning both the interactions of temperature, oxygen and current in winter and the biological responses of primary and secondary producers. Results from this study should provide guidance for similar habitat-rehabilitation projects in large rivers.

  3. Star Formation at Very Low Metallicity. V. The greater importance of initial conditions compared to metallicity thresholds

    CERN Document Server

    Jappsen, A -K; Glover, S C O; Klessen, R S; Kitsionas, S

    2008-01-01

    The formation of the first stars out of metal-free gas appears to result in stars at least an order of magnitude more massive than in the present-day case. We here consider what controls the transition from a primordial to a modern initial mass function. It has been proposed that this occurs when effective metal line cooling occurs at a metallicity threshold of Z/Z_sun > 10^{-3.5}. We study the influence of low levels of metal enrichment on the cooling and collapse of initially ionized gas in small protogalactic halos using three-dimensional, smoothed particle hydrodynamics simulations with particle splitting. Our initial conditions represent protogalaxies forming within a previously ionized H ii region that has not yet had time to cool and recombine. These differ considerably from those used in simulations predicting a metallicity threshold, where the gas was initially cold and only partially ionized. In the centrally condensed potential that we study here, a wide variety of initial conditions for the gas yi...

  4. Predictive hydrogeochemical modelling of bauxite residue sand in field conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wissmeier, Laurin; Barry, David A; Phillips, Ian R

    2011-07-15

    The suitability of residue sand (the coarse fraction remaining from Bayer's process of bauxite refining) for constructing the surface cover of closed bauxite residue storage areas was investigated. Specifically, its properties as a medium for plant growth are of interest to ensure residue sand can support a sustainable ecosystem following site closure. The geochemical evolution of the residue sand under field conditions, its plant nutrient status and soil moisture retention were studied by integrated modelling of geochemical and hydrological processes. For the parameterization of mineral reactions, amounts and reaction kinetics of the mineral phases natron, calcite, tricalcium aluminate, sodalite, muscovite and analcime were derived from measured acid neutralization curves. The effective exchange capacity for ion adsorption was measured using three independent exchange methods. The geochemical model, which accounts for mineral reactions, cation exchange and activity corrected solution speciation, was formulated in the geochemical modelling framework PHREEQC, and partially validated in a saturated-flow column experiment. For the integration of variably saturated flow with multi-component solute transport in heterogeneous 2D domains, a coupling of PHREEQC with the multi-purpose finite-element solver COMSOL was established. The integrated hydrogeochemical model was applied to predict water availability and quality in a vertical flow lysimeter and a cover design for a storage facility using measured time series of rainfall and evaporation from southwest Western Australia. In both scenarios the sand was fertigated and gypsum-amended. Results show poor long-term retention of fertilizer ions and buffering of the pH around 10 for more than 5 y of leaching. It was concluded that fertigation, gypsum amendment and rainfall leaching alone were insufficient to render the geochemical conditions of residue sand suitable for optimal plant growth within the given timeframe. The

  5. Applications of Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation in Predictability Study and Sensitivity Analysis of Weather and Climate

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    Considering the limitation of the linear theory of singular vector (SV), the authors and their collaborators proposed conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) and then applied it in the predictability study and the sensitivity analysis of weather and climate system. To celebrate the 20th anniversary of Chinese National Committee for World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), this paper is devoted to reviewing the main results of these studies. First, CNOP represents the initial perturbation that has largest nonlinear evolution at prediction time, which is different from linear singular vector (LSV) for the large magnitude of initial perturbation or/and the long optimization time interval. Second, CNOP,rather than linear singular vector (LSV), represents the initial anomaly that evolves into ENSO events most probably. It is also the CNOP that induces the most prominent seasonal variation of error growth for ENSO predictability; furthermore, CNOP was applied to investigate the decadal variability of ENSO asymmetry. It is demonstrated that the changing nonlinearity causes the change of ENSO asymmetry.Third, in the studies of the sensitivity and stability of ocean's thermohaline circulation (THC), the non-linear asymmetric response of THC to finite amplitude of initial perturbations was revealed by CNOP.Through this approach the passive mechanism of decadal variation of THC was demonstrated; Also the authors studies the instability and sensitivity analysis of grassland ecosystem by using CNOP and show the mechanism of the transitions between the grassland and desert states. Finally, a detailed discussion on the results obtained by CNOP suggests the applicability of CNOP in predictability studies and sensitivity analysis.

  6. Dynamical ejections of massive stars from young star clusters under diverse initial conditions

    CERN Document Server

    Oh, Seungkyung

    2016-01-01

    We study the effects of initial conditions of star clusters and their massive star population on dynamical ejections of stars from star clusters up to an age of 3 Myr, particularly focusing on massive systems, using a large set of direct N-body calculations for moderately massive star clusters (Mecl=$10^{3.5}$ Msun). We vary the initial conditions of the calculations such as the initial half-mass radius of the clusters, initial binary populations for massive stars and initial mass segregation. We find that the initial density is the most influential parameter for the ejection fraction of the massive systems. The clusters with an initial half-mass radius of 0.1 (0.3) pc can eject up to 50% (30)% of their O-star systems on average. Most of the models show that the average ejection fraction decreases with decreasing stellar mass. For clusters efficient at ejecting O stars, the mass function of the ejected stars is top-heavy compared to the given initial mass function (IMF), while the mass function of stars remai...

  7. Effect of Initial Hydraulic Conditions on Capillary Rise in a Porous Medium: Pore-Network Modeling

    KAUST Repository

    Joekar-Niasar, V.

    2012-01-01

    The dynamics of capillary rise in a porous medium have been mostly studied in initially dry systems. As initial saturation and initial hydraulic conditions in many natural and industrial porous media can be variable, it is important to investigate the influence of initial conditions on the dynamics of the process. In this study, using dynamic pore-network modeling, we simulated capillary rise in a porous medium for different initial saturations (and consequently initial capillary pressures). Furthermore, the effect of hydraulic connectivity of the wetting phase in corners on the height and velocity of the wetting front was studied. Our simulation results show that there is a trade-off between capillary forces and trapping due to snap-off, which leads to a nonlinear dependence of wetting front velocity on initial saturation at the pore scale. This analysis may provide a possible answer to the experimental observations in the literature showing a non-monotonic dependency between initial saturation and the macroscopic front velocity. © Soil Science Society of America.

  8. A Novel Method for the Initial-Condition Estimation of a Tent Map

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    CHEN Xi; GAG Yong; YANG Yuan

    2009-01-01

    Based on the connection between the tent map and the saw tooth map or Bernoulli map, a novel method for the initial-condition estimation of the tent map is presented. In the method, firstly the symbolic sequence generated from the tent map is converted to the forms obtained from the saw tooth map and Bernoulli map, and then the relationship between the symbolic sequence and the initial condition of the tent map can be obtained from the initial-condition estimation equations, which can be easily obtained, hence the estimation of the tent map can be achieved finally. The method is computationally simple and the error of the estimator is less than 1/2N. The method is verified by software simulation.

  9. A new way of setting the phases for cosmological multi-scale Gaussian initial conditions

    CERN Document Server

    Jenkins, Adrian

    2013-01-01

    We describe how to define an extremely large discrete realisation of a Gaussian white noise field that has a hierarchical structure and the property that the value of any part of the field can be computed quickly. Tiny subregions of such a field can be used to set the phase information for Gaussian initial conditions for individual cosmological simulations of structure formation. This approach has several attractive features: (i) the hierarchical structure based on an octree is particular well suited for generating follow up resimulation or zoom initial conditions; (ii) the phases are defined for all relevant physical scales in advance so that resimulation initial conditions are, by construction, consistent both with their parent simulation and with each other; (iii) the field can easily be made public by releasing a code to compute it - once public, phase information can be shared or published by specifying a spatial location within the realisation. In this paper we describe the principles behind creating su...

  10. An Investigation of the Influence of Initial Conditions on Rayleigh-Taylor Mixing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mueschke, Nicholas J. [Texas A & M Univ., College Station, TX (United States)

    2004-12-01

    Experiments and direct numerical simulations (DNS) have been performed to examine the effects of initial conditions on the dynamics of a Rayleigh-Taylor unstable mixing layer. Experiments were performed on a water channel facility to measure the interfacial and velocity perturbations initially present at the two-fluid interface in a small Atwood number mixing layer. The experimental measurements have been parameterized for use in numerical simulations of the experiment. Two- and three-dimensional DNS of the experiment have been performed using the parameterized initial conditions. It is shown that simulations implemented with initial velocity and density perturbations, rather than density perturbations alone, are required to match experimentally-measured statistics and spectra. Data acquired from both the experiment and numerical simulations are used to examine the role of initial conditions on the evolution of integral-scale, turbulence, and mixing statistics. Early-time turbulence and mixing statistics are shown to be strongly-dependent upon the early-time transition of the initial perturbation from a weakly-nonlinear to a strongly-nonlinear flow.

  11. 3-D simulations to investigate initial condition effects on the growth of Rayleigh-Taylor mixing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andrews, Malcolm J [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2008-01-01

    The effect of initial conditions on the growth rate of turbulent Rayleigh-Taylor (RT) mixing has been studied using carefully formulated numerical simulations. An integrated large-eddy simulation (ILES) that uses a finite-volume technique was employed to solve the three-dimensional incompressible Euler equations with numerical dissipation. The initial conditions were chosen to test the dependence of the RT growth parameters ({alpha}{sub b}, {alpha}{sub s}) on variations in (a) the spectral bandwidth, (b) the spectral shape, and (c) discrete banded spectra. Our findings support the notion that the overall growth of the RT mixing is strongly dependent on initial conditions. Variation in spectral shapes and bandwidths are found to have a complex effect of the late time development of the RT mixing layer, and raise the question of whether we can design RT transition and turbulence based on our choice of initial conditions. In addition, our results provide a useful database for the initialization and development of closures describing RT transition and turbulence.

  12. ICBC Version 3. 1: TMI-2 (Three Mile Island) Initial and Boundary Conditions data base

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brower, R W; Fackrell, L J; Golden, D W; Harris, M L; Olaveson, C L

    1988-01-01

    The TMI-2 initial and boundary conditions data base is a micro computer data base which provides the required initial and boundary conditions to simulate the TMI-2 accident. Additionally, other time series plant measurements related to the accident are included in the data base. Major features of the data base are the ability to plot, manipulate and list data as well as to enter user supplied data (e.g. results of simulations). The user guide provides the instructions for installation and operation of the data base. 10 refs., 21 figs.

  13. Bayesian inference of the initial conditions from large-scale structure surveys

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leclercq, Florent

    2016-10-01

    Analysis of three-dimensional cosmological surveys has the potential to answer outstanding questions on the initial conditions from which structure appeared, and therefore on the very high energy physics at play in the early Universe. We report on recently proposed statistical data analysis methods designed to study the primordial large-scale structure via physical inference of the initial conditions in a fully Bayesian framework, and applications to the Sloan Digital Sky Survey data release 7. We illustrate how this approach led to a detailed characterization of the dynamic cosmic web underlying the observed galaxy distribution, based on the tidal environment.

  14. Effect of initial conditions and Mach number on the Richtmyer-Meshkov instability in ICF like conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rao, Pooja; She, Dan; Lim, Hyunkyung; Glimm, James

    2015-11-01

    The qualitative and quantitative effect of initial conditions (linear and non-linear) and high Mach number (1.3 and 1.45) is studied on the turbulent mixing induced by the Richtmyer-Meshkov instability in idealized ICF conditions. The Richtmyer-Meshkov instability seeds Rayleigh-taylor instabilities in ICF experiments and is one of the factors that contributes to reduced performance of ICF experiments. Its also found in collapsing cores of stars and supersonic combustion. We use the Stony Brook University code, FronTier, which is verified via a code comparison study against the AMR multiphysics code FLASH, and validated against vertical shock tube experiments done by the LANL Extreme Fluids Team. These simulations are designed as a step towards simulating more realistic ICF conditions and quantifying the detrimental effects of mixing on the yield.

  15. Predicting deoxynivalenol in oats under conditions representing Scandinavian production regions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Persson, Tomas; Eckersten, Henrik; Elen, Oleif; Roer Hjelkrem, Anne-Grete; Markgren, Joel; Söderström, Mats; Börjesson, Thomas

    2017-06-01

    Deoxynivalenol (DON) in cereals, produced by Fusarium fungi, cause poisoning in humans and animals. Fusarium infections in cereals are favoured by humid conditions. Host species are susceptible mainly during the anthesis stage. Infections are also positively correlated with a regional history of Fusarium infections, frequent cereal production and non-tillage field management practices. Here, previously developed process-based models based on relative air humidity, rain and temperature conditions, Fusarium sporulation, host phenology and mycelium growth in host tissue were adapted and tested on oats. Model outputs were used to calculate risk indices. Statistical multivariate models, where independent variables were constructed from weather data, were also developed. Regressions of the risk indices obtained against DON concentrations in field experiments on oats in Sweden and Norway 2012-14 had coefficient of determination values (R(2)) between 0.84 and 0.88. Regressions of the same indices against DON concentrations in oat samples averaged for 11 × 11 km grids in farmers' fields in Sweden 2012-14 resulted in R(2) values between 0.27 and 0.41 for randomly selected grids and between 0.31 and 0.62 for grids with average DON concentration above 1000 μg kg(-)(1) grain in the previous year. When data from all three years were evaluated together, a cross-validated statistical partial least squares model resulted in R(2) = 0.70 and a standard error of cross-validation (SECV) = 522 μg kg(-)(1) grain for the period 1 April-28 August in the construction of independent variables and R(2) = 0.54 and SECV = 647 μg kg(-)(1) grain for 1 April-23 June. Factors that were not accounted for in this study probably explain large parts of the variation in DON among samples and make further model development necessary before these models can be used practically. DON prediction in oats could potentially be improved by combining weather-based risk index outputs with

  16. Short-term prediction of local wind conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Landberg, L.; Watson, S.J.

    1994-01-01

    Using Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models it has been shown that they, combined with models (either physical or statistical) taking local effects into account, can be used to predict the wind locally better than the models commonly used today (as eg persistence). By ''local'' is meant at one...... law, and the logarithmic wind profile. The predictions are made up to 36 hours ahead. The model is tested on data from 50 meteorological stations scattered all over Europe....

  17. A new way of setting the phases for cosmological multiscale Gaussian initial conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jenkins, Adrian

    2013-09-01

    We describe how to define an extremely large discrete realization of a Gaussian white noise field that has a hierarchical structure and the property that the value of any part of the field can be computed quickly. Tiny subregions of such a field can be used to set the phase information for Gaussian initial conditions for individual cosmological simulations of structure formation. This approach has several attractive features: (i) the hierarchical structure based on an octree is particularly well suited for generating follow-up resimulation or zoom initial conditions; (ii) the phases are defined for all relevant physical scales in advance so that resimulation initial conditions are, by construction, consistent both with their parent simulation and with each other; (iii) the field can easily be made public by releasing a code to compute it - once public, phase information can be shared or published by specifying a spatial location within the realization. In this paper, we describe the principles behind creating such realizations. We define an example called Panphasia and in a companion paper by Jenkins and Booth (2013) make public a code to compute it. With 50 octree levels Panphasia spans a factor of more than 1015 in linear scale - a range that significantly exceeds the ratio of the current Hubble radius to the putative cold dark matter free-streaming scale. We show how to modify a code used for making cosmological and resimulation initial conditions so that it can take the phase information from Panphasia and, using this code, we demonstrate that it is possible to make good quality resimulation initial conditions. We define a convention for publishing phase information from Panphasia and publish the initial phases for several of the Virgo Consortium's most recent cosmological simulations including the 303 billion particle MXXL simulation. Finally, for reference, we give the locations and properties of several dark matter haloes that can be resimulated within these

  18. Multi-initial-conditions and Multi-physics Ensembles in the Weather Research and Forecasting Model to Improve Coastal Stratocumulus Forecasts for Solar Power Integration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, H.

    2015-12-01

    In coastal Southern California, variation in solar energy production is predominantly due to the presence of stratocumulus clouds (Sc), as they greatly attenuate surface solar irradiance and cover most distributed photovoltaic systems on summer mornings. Correct prediction of the spatial coverage and lifetime of coastal Sc is therefore vital to the accuracy of solar energy forecasts in California. In Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulations, underprediction of Sc inherent in the initial conditions directly leads to an underprediction of Sc in the resulting forecasts. Hence, preprocessing methods were developed to create initial conditions more consistent with observational data and reduce spin-up time requirements. Mathiesen et al. (2014) previously developed a cloud data assimilation system to force WRF initial conditions to contain cloud liquid water based on CIMSS GOES Sounder cloud cover. The Well-mixed Preprocessor and Cloud Data Assimilation (WEMPPDA) package merges an initial guess of cloud liquid water content obtained from mixed-layer theory with assimilated CIMSS GOES Sounder cloud cover to more accurately represent the spatial coverage of Sc at initialization. The extent of Sc inland penetration is often constrained topographically; therefore, the low inversion base height (IBH) bias in NAM initial conditions decreases Sc inland penetration. The Inversion Base Height (IBH) package perturbs the initial IBH by the difference between model IBH and the 12Z radiosonde measurement. The performance of these multi-initial-condition configurations was evaluated over June, 2013 against SolarAnywhere satellite-derived surface irradiance data. Four configurations were run: 1) NAM initial conditions, 2) RAP initial conditions, 3) WEMPPDA applied to NAM, and 4) IBH applied to NAM. Both preprocessing methods showed significant improvement in the prediction of both spatial coverage and lifetime of coastal Sc. The best performing configuration was then

  19. Factors predicting the probability of initiating sexual intercourse by context and sex.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grøntvedt, Trond Viggo; Kennair, Leif Edward Ottesen; Mehmetoglu, Mehmet

    2015-10-01

    Despite men initiating sex more than women there is considerable variance within the sexes. This study is the first to consider the impact of multiple predictors from the literature, and investigates how factors, such as relationship length, sociosexuality, and different aspects of self-perceived mate value among others, independently and interactively predict initiation of sexual intercourse in both short-term sexual and long-term romantic mating contexts, testing predictions from Sexual strategies theory. For long-term relationships, positive partner bond increased initiative to sexual intercourse for women. For men, self-perceived independence increased probability of taking the initiative, while relationship attachment decreased probability. For short-term relations, the desire component of the sociosexual orientation inventory increased probability of initiation for both sexes, while male initiative was increased by pleasure reasons for sex. The impact of individual predictors on initiating intercourse is influenced by being included in a multidimensional model, and relationship context affects the impact of the predictors.

  20. An effort to improve track and intensity prediction of tropical cyclones through vortex initialization in NCUM-global model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Vivek; Routray, A.; Mallick, Swapan; George, John P.; Rajagopal, E. N.

    2016-05-01

    Tropical cyclones (TCs) have strong impact on socio-economic conditions of the countries like India, Bangladesh and Myanmar owing to its awful devastating power. This brings in the need of precise forecasting system to predict the tracks and intensities of TCs accurately well in advance. However, it has been a great challenge for major operational meteorological centers over the years. Genesis of TCs over data sparse warm Tropical Ocean adds more difficulty to this. Weak and misplaced vortices at initial time are one of the prime sources of track and intensity errors in the Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. Many previous studies have reported the forecast skill of track and intensity of TC improved due to the assimilation of satellite data along with vortex initialization (VI). Keeping this in mind, an attempt has been made to investigate the impact of vortex initialization for simulation of TC using UK-Met office global model, operational at NCMRWF (NCUM). This assessment is carried out by taking the case of a extremely severe cyclonic storm "Chapala" that occurred over Arabian Sea (AS) from 28th October to 3rd November 2015. Two numerical experiments viz. Vort-GTS (Assimilation of GTS observations with VI) and Vort-RAD (Same as Vort-GTS with assimilation of satellite data) are carried out. This vortex initialization study in NCUM model is first of its type over North Indian Ocean (NIO). The model simulation of TC is carried out with five different initial conditions through 24 hour cycles for both the experiments. The results indicate that the vortex initialization with assimilation of satellite data has a positive impact on the track and intensity forecast, landfall time and position error of the TCs.

  1. Skill of a global seasonal streamflow forecasting system, relative roles of initial conditions and meteorological forcing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Candogan Yossef, N.; Winsemius, H.C.; Weerts, A.; Van Beek, R.; Bierkens, M.F.P.

    2013-01-01

    We investigate the relative contributions of initial conditions (ICs) and meteorological forcing (MF) to the skill of the global seasonal streamflow forecasting system FEWS-World, using the global hydrological model PCRaster Global Water Balance. Potential improvement in forecasting skill through be

  2. 42 CFR 418.54 - Condition of participation: Initial and comprehensive assessment of the patient.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... comprehensive assessment of the patient. 418.54 Section 418.54 Public Health CENTERS FOR MEDICARE & MEDICAID... Participation: Patient Care § 418.54 Condition of participation: Initial and comprehensive assessment of the patient. The hospice must conduct and document in writing a patient-specific comprehensive assessment...

  3. A formula to compute the microcanonical volume of reactive initial conditions in transition state theory

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Waalkens, H.; Burbanks, A.; Wiggins, S.

    2005-01-01

    We present the formal proof of a procedure to compute the phase-space volume of initial conditions for trajectories that, for a constant energy, escape or ‘react’ from a multi-dimensional potential well with one or several exit/entrance channels. The procedure relies on a phase-space formulation of

  4. On a Class of Multitime Evolution Equations with Nonlocal Initial Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Zouyed

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The existence and uniqueness of the strong solution for a multitime evolution equation with nonlocal initial conditions are proved. The proof is essentially based on a priori estimates and on the density of the range of the operator generated by the considered problem.

  5. The initial conditions of observed star clusters - I. Method description and validation

    CERN Document Server

    Pijloo, J T; Alexander, P E R; Gieles, M; Larsen, S S; Groot, P J; Devecchi, B

    2015-01-01

    We have coupled a fast, parametrized star cluster evolution code to a Markov Chain Monte Carlo code to determine the distribution of probable initial conditions of observed star clusters, which may serve as a starting point for future $N$-body calculations. In this paper we validate our method by applying it to a set of star clusters which have been studied in detail numerically with $N$-body simulations and Monte Carlo methods: the Galactic globular clusters M4, 47 Tucanae, NGC 6397, M22, $\\omega$ Centauri, Palomar 14 and Palomar 4, the Galactic open cluster M67, and the M31 globular cluster G1. For each cluster we derive a distribution of initial conditions that, after evolution up to the cluster's current age, evolves to the currently observed conditions. We find that there is a connection between the morphology of the distribution of initial conditions and the dynamical age of a cluster and that a degeneracy in the initial half-mass radius towards small radii is present for clusters which have undergone a...

  6. How non-zero initial conditions affect the minimality of linear discrete-time systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Willigenburg, van L.G.; Koning, de W.L.

    2008-01-01

    From the state-space approach to linear systems, promoted by Kalman, we learned that minimality is equivalent with reachability together with observability. Our past research on optimal reduced-order LQG controller synthesis revealed that if the initial conditions are non-zero, minimality is no long

  7. Skill of a global seasonal streamflow forecasting system, relative roles of initial conditions and meteorological forcing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Candogan Yossef, N.; Winsemius, H.C.; Weerts, A.; Van Beek, R.; Bierkens, M.F.P.

    2013-01-01

    We investigate the relative contributions of initial conditions (ICs) and meteorological forcing (MF) to the skill of the global seasonal streamflow forecasting system FEWS-World, using the global hydrological model PCRaster Global Water Balance. Potential improvement in forecasting skill through be

  8. Prescribing Transient and Asymptotic Behaviour of LTI Systems with Stochastic Initial Conditions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dresscher, Martijn; Jayawardhana, Bayu

    2017-01-01

    This paper considers two different control problems for deterministic systems with stochastic initial conditions where, in addition to the usual asymptotic behavior requirement, we are interested in the transient behavior of the state distribution evolution. For the first one, we study control desig

  9. Understanding the impact of initial condition on low Atwood number Rayleigh-Taylor driven flows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuchibhatla, Sarat Chandra; Ranjan, Devesh

    2012-11-01

    Experimental investigation of the effects of initial conditions on Rayleigh-Taylor instability was performed using the Water Channel facility at Texas A&M University. Hot and cold water (with a temperature difference of ~7-8 degrees C) selected as working fluids were unstably stratified using a splitter plate resulting in a low Atwood number of ~0.0015. Using a servo controlled flapper system the effect of initial conditions is studied using different diagnostics such as optical imaging, thermocouples and hot-wire anemometry. A parametric study comprising of up to 10 modes of the initial condition was performed by varying the number of modes as well as modal composition (i . e . ratio of wavenumbers and phase differences). Variation of density, temperature and velocity field in the linear and non-linear stages of RT growth was recorded and analyzed. At non-dimensional time, t* = t (At g /H)0.5= 1.3, where t is the time, H is the width of the Channel, and g is the acceleration due to gravity, power spectra of the non-dimensional density showed fine-scale components that are dependent upon the initial condition. Plots of scalar dissipation and mixing rate indicate greater dissipation rate at early times that tends to asymptote to the order of kinematic viscosity at late times.

  10. Fractional Representation Formulae Under Initial Conditions and Fractional Ostrowski Type Inequalities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anastassiou George A.

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Here we present very general fractional representation formulae for a function in terms of the fractional Riemann-Liouville integrals of different orders of the function and its ordinary derivatives under initial conditions. Based on these, we derive general fractional Ostrowski type inequalities with respect to all basic norms.

  11. Influence of the initial conditions for the numerical simulation of two-phase slug flow

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pachas Napa, Alex A.; Morales, Rigoberto E.M.; Medina, Cesar D. Perea

    2010-07-01

    Multiphase flows in pipelines commonly show several patterns depending on the flow rate, geometry and physical properties of the phases. In oil production, the slug flow pattern is the most common among the others. This flow pattern is characterized by an intermittent succession in space and time of an aerated liquid slug and an elongated gas bubble with a liquid film. Slug flow is studied through the slug tracking model described as one-dimensional and Lagrangian frame referenced. In the model, the mass and the momentum balance equations are applied in control volumes constituted by the gas bubble and the liquid slug. Initial conditions must be determined, which need to reproduce the intermittence of the flow pattern. These initial conditions are given by a sequence of flow properties for each unit cell. Properties of the unit cell in initial conditions should reflect the intermittence, for which they can be analyzed in statistical terms. Therefore, statistical distributions should be obtained for the slug flow variables. Distributions are complemented with the mass balance and the bubble design model. The objective of the present work is to obtain initial conditions for the slug tracking model that reproduce a better adjustment of the fluctuating properties for different pipe inclinations (horizontal, vertical or inclined). The numerical results are compared with experimental data obtained by PFG/FEM/UNICAMP for air-water flow at 0 deg, 45 deg and 90 deg and good agreement is observed. (author)

  12. Path dependence, initial conditions, and routines in organizations : The Toyota production system re-examined

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dolfsma, W.A.; van Driel, H.

    2009-01-01

    Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to disentangle and elaborate on the constitutive elements of the concept of path dependence (initial conditions and lock-in) for a concerted and in-depth application to the study of organizational change. Design/methodology/approach - The approach takes the for

  13. A formula to compute the microcanonical volume of reactive initial conditions in transition state theory

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Waalkens, H.; Burbanks, A.; Wiggins, S.

    2005-01-01

    We present the formal proof of a procedure to compute the phase-space volume of initial conditions for trajectories that, for a constant energy, escape or ‘react’ from a multi-dimensional potential well with one or several exit/entrance channels. The procedure relies on a phase-space formulation of

  14. Skill of a global seasonal streamflow forecasting system, relative roles of initial conditions and meteorological forcing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Candogan Yossef, N.; Winsemius, H.C.; Weerts, A.; Van Beek, R.; Bierkens, M.F.P.

    2013-01-01

    We investigate the relative contributions of initial conditions (ICs) and meteorological forcing (MF) to the skill of the global seasonal streamflow forecasting system FEWS-World, using the global hydrological model PCRaster Global Water Balance. Potential improvement in forecasting skill through

  15. THE ANALYTICAL SOLUTION FOR SEDIMENT REACTION AND DIFFUSION EQUATION WITH GENERALIZED INITIAL-BOUNDARY CONDITIONS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    熊岳山; 韦永康

    2001-01-01

    The sediment reaction and diffusion equation with generalized initial and boundary condition is studied. By using Laplace transform and Jordan lemma , an analytical solution is got, which is an extension of analytical solution provided by Cheng Kwokming James ( only diffusion was considered in analytical solution of Cheng ). Some problems arisen in the computation of analytical solution formula are also analysed.

  16. Finite element lumbar spine facet contact parameter predictions are affected by the cartilage thickness distribution and initial joint gap size.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woldtvedt, Daniel J; Womack, Wesley; Gadomski, Benjamin C; Schuldt, Dieter; Puttlitz, Christian M

    2011-06-01

    Current finite element modeling techniques utilize geometrically inaccurate cartilage distribution representations in the lumbar spine. We hypothesize that this shortcoming severely limits the predictive fidelity of these simulations. Specifically, it is unclear how these anatomically inaccurate cartilage representations alter range of motion and facet contact predictions. In the current study, cadaveric vertebrae were serially sectioned, and images were taken of each slice in order to identify the osteochondral interface and the articulating surface. A series of custom-written algorithms were utilized in order to quantify each facet joint's three-dimensional cartilage distribution using a previously developed methodology. These vertebrae-dependent thickness cartilage distributions were implemented on an L1 through L5 lumbar spine finite element model. Moments were applied in three principal planes of motion, and range of motion and facet contact predictions from the variable thickness and constant thickness distribution models were determined. Initial facet gap thickness dimensions were also parameterized. The data indicate that the mean and maximum cartilage thickness increased inferiorly from L1 to L5, with an overall mean thickness value of 0.57 mm. Cartilage distribution and initial facet joint gap thickness had little influence on the lumbar range of motion in any direction, whereas the mean contact pressure, total contact force, and total contact area predictions were altered considerably. The data indicate that range of motion predictions alone are insufficient to establish model validation intended to predict mechanical contact parameters. These data also emphasize the need for the careful consideration of the initial facet joint gap thickness with respect to the spinal condition being studied.

  17. Analysis of convergence for initial condition estimation of coupled map lattices based on symbolic dynamics

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Sun Li-Sha; Kang Xiao-Yun; Lin Lan-Xin

    2010-01-01

    A novel approach to the inverse problem of diffusively coupled map lattices is systematically investigated by utilizing the symbolic vector dynamics. The relationship between the performance of initial condition estimation and the structural feature of dynamical system is proved theoretically. It is found that any point in a spatiotemporal coupled system is not necessary to converge to its initial value with respect to sufficient backward iteration, which is directly relevant to the coupling strength and local mapping function. When the convergence is met, the error bound in estimating the initial condition is proposed in a noiseless environment, which is determined by the dimension of attractors and metric entropy of the system. Simulation results further confirm the theoretic analysis, and prove that the presented method provides the important theory and experimental results for better analysing and characterizing the spatiotemporal complex behaviours in an actual system.

  18. Cosmological Simulations with Scale-Free Initial Conditions; 1, Adiabatic Hydrodynamics

    CERN Document Server

    Owen, J M; Evrard, A E; Hernquist, L E; Katz, N; Weinberg, David H.; Evrard, August E.; Hernquist, Lars; Katz, Neal

    1997-01-01

    We analyze hierarchical structure formation based on scale-free initial conditions in an Einstein-de Sitter universe, including a baryonic component. We present three independent, smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) simulations, performed with two different SPH codes (TreeSPH and P3MSPH) at two resolutions. Each simulation is based upon identical initial conditions, which consist of Gaussian distributed initial density fluctuations that have an n=-1 power spectrum. The baryonic material is modeled as an ideal gas subject only to shock heating and adiabatic heating and cooling. The evolution is expected to be self-similar in time, and under certain restrictions we identify the expected scalings for many properties of the distribution of collapsed objects in all three realizations. The distributions of dark matter masses, baryon masses, and mass and emission weighted temperatures scale quite reliably. However, the density estimates in the central regions of these structures are determined by the degree of num...

  19. Practical implementation of a particle filter data assimilation approach to estimate initial hydrologic conditions and initialize medium-range streamflow forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, E.; Wood, A.; Nijssen, B.; Newman, A. J.; Mendoza, P. A.

    2016-12-01

    The System for Hydrometeorological Applications, Research and Prediction (SHARP), developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), University of Washington, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, and U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, is a fully automated ensemble prediction system for short-term to seasonal applications. It incorporates uncertainty in initial hydrologic conditions (IHCs) and in hydrometeorological predictions. In this implementation, IHC uncertainty is estimated by propagating an ensemble of 100 plausible temperature and precipitation time series through the Sacramento/Snow-17 model. The forcing ensemble explicitly accounts for measurement and interpolation uncertainties in the development of gridded meteorological forcing time series. The resulting ensemble of derived IHCs exhibits a broad range of possible soil moisture and snow water equivalent (SWE) states. To select the IHCs that are most consistent with the observations, we employ a particle filter (PF) that weights IHC ensemble members based on observations of streamflow and SWE. These particles are then used to initialize ensemble precipitation and temperature forecasts downscaled from the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS), generating a streamflow forecast ensemble. We test this method in two basins in the Pacific Northwest that are important for water resources management: 1) the Green River upstream of Howard Hanson Dam, and 2) the South Fork Flathead River upstream of Hungry Horse Dam. The first of these is characterized by mixed snow and rain, while the second is snow-dominated. The PF-based forecasts are compared to forecasts based on a single IHC (corresponding to median streamflow) paired with the full GEFS ensemble, and 2) the full IHC ensemble, without filtering, paired with the full GEFS ensemble. In addition to assessing improvements in the spread of IHCs, we perform a hindcast experiment to evaluate the utility of PF-based data assimilation on streamflow forecasts at 1

  20. Initial conditions, Discreteness and non-linear structure formation in cosmology

    CERN Document Server

    Sylos-Labini, F; Gabrielli, A; Joyce, M; Labini, Francesco Sylos; Baertschiger, Thierry; Gabrielli, Andrea; Joyce, Michael

    2002-01-01

    In this lecture we address three different but related aspects of the initial continuous fluctuation field in standard cosmological models. Firstly we discuss the properties of the so-called Harrison-Zeldovich like spectra. This power spectrum is a fundamental feature of all current standard cosmological models. In a simple classification of all stationary stochastic processes into three categories, we highlight with the name ``super-homogeneous'' the properties of the class to which models like this, with $P(0)=0$, belong. In statistical physics language they are well described as glass-like. Secondly, the initial continuous density field with such small amplitude correlated Gaussian fluctuations must be discretised in order to set up the initial particle distribution used in gravitational N-body simulations. We discuss the main issues related to the effects of discretisation, particularly concerning the effect of particle induced fluctuations on the statistical properties of the initial conditions and on th...

  1. The Stochastic Engine Initiative: Improving Prediction of Behavior in Geologic Environments We Cannot Directly Observe

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aines, R; Nitao, J; Newmark, R; Carle, S; Ramirez, A; Harris, D; Johnson, J; Johnson, V; Ermak, D; Sugiyama, G; Hanley, W; Sengupta, S; Daily, W; Glaser, R; Dyer, K; Fogg, G; Zhang, Y; Yu, Z; Levine, R

    2002-05-09

    base representations, and most importantly an ability to obtain disparate data sets that are directly affected by the system configuration. Our initial earth-sciences application uses models for lithology, flow and transport, geochemistry, and geophysical imaging; the system configuration (base representation) being refined is the rock type at each underground location. In the initial stages of this initiative we demonstrated a two-stage analysis of synthetic Electrical Resistance Tomography (ERT) data and hydraulic flow information (Newmark et al., 2002). We used these results to develop algorithms that improve efficiency of the Metropolis search and provide accurate diagnostic evaluation during the search. Using actual data from a highly contaminated A/M outfall and solvent tank storage areas at the Savannah River Site (SRS), we used the stochastic engine to resolve lithology using ERT data. SRS will use these methods in their design and implementation of steam cleanup of the largest trichloroethylene (TCE) source in the Department of Energy (DOE) complex. We have implemented ''soft conditioning'' algorithms that allow us to use a variety of data types to control the initial representations, and most importantly, to use the final distribution resulting from one stochastic engine analysis as the initial distribution for a subsequent analysis. We have created a web-based interface that will allow collaborators like SRS to enter data and observe results of calculations on Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) supercomputers in an interactive mode. All engine functions operate in three dimensions, and a parallel implementation on Linux cluster machines is in initial testing. The method will be extended to include active process analysis, in which an ongoing data stream is used to continuously update the understanding of the system configuration. Applications to other types of state spaces, such as chemical parameters in a reacting system or

  2. Significance of monitoring the initial intracranial pressure on hematoma irrigation with trephination therapy for acute subdural hematomas in critical conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otani, Naoki; Takasato, Yoshio; Masaoka, Hiroyuki; Hayakawa, Takanori; Yoshino, Yoshikazu; Yatsushige, Hiroshi; Miyawaki, Hiroki; Sumiyoshi, Kyoko; Sugawara, Takashi; Chikashi, Aoyagi; Takeuchi, Satoru; Suzuki, Go

    2010-01-01

    Acute subdural hematoma (ASDH) patients presenting in a severe condition tend to have poor outcomes due to the significant brain edema required to maintain the ICP at less than 20-25 mmHg. This study compared the surgical outcomes of 16 critically ill patients with ASDH who underwent hematoma irrigation with trephination therapy (HITT) based on their initial ICP values. The initial mean GCS score upon admission was four. A unilateral dilated pupil was seen in one and bilateral dilated pupils were seen in seven patients. The co-existence of a brain contusion was seen in seven patients, brain swelling was noted in six patients, and both basal cistern effacement and a midline shift greater than 5 mm were observed in all patients. The mean initial ICP value was 45 mmHg (range: 3 to 85 mmHg). Ten patients (62.5%) underwent a rapid external decompression to evacuate the hematoma. By using the Glasgow Outcome Scale upon discharge a score of good recovery (GR) was assigned to two (12.5 %), moderate disability (MD) to four (25.0 %), vegetative state (VS) to two (12.5 %), and death (D) to eight (50.0 %) patients. All six patients who showed an initial ICP greater than 60 mmHg died despite intensive care. Eight patients who showed an initial ICP less than 40 mmHg had a favorable outcome, but two patients deteriorated due to a traumatic cerebrovascular disorder. It seems that the initial ICP monitoring with HITT for ASDH patients in critical condition may be an important factor for predicting both surgical outcome and clinical course.

  3. Conditions for circumstellar disc formation - II. Effects of initial cloud stability and mass accretion rate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Machida, Masahiro N.; Matsumoto, Tomoaki; Inutsuka, Shu-ichiro

    2016-12-01

    Disc formation in strongly magnetized cloud cores is investigated using a three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic simulation with a focus on the effects of the initial cloud stability and the mass accretion rate. The initial cloud stability greatly alters the disc formation process even for prestellar clouds with the same mass-to-flux ratio. A high mass accretion rate on to the disc-forming region is realized in initially unstable clouds, and a large angular momentum is introduced into the circumstellar region in a short time. The region around the protostar has both a thin infalling envelope and a weak magnetic field, which both weaken the effect of magnetic braking. The growth of the rotation-supported disc is promoted in such unstable clouds. Conversely, clouds in an initially near-equilibrium state show lower accretion rates of mass and angular momentum. The angular momentum is transported to the outer envelope before protostar formation. After protostar formation, the circumstellar region has a thick infalling envelope and a strong magnetic field that effectively brakes the disc. As a result, disc formation is suppressed when the initial cloud is in a nearly stable state. The density distribution of the initial cloud also affects the disc formation process. Disc growth strongly depends on the initial conditions when the prestellar cloud has a uniform density, whereas there is no significant difference in the disc formation process in prestellar clouds with non-uniform densities.

  4. Dark energy with non-adiabatic sound speed: initial conditions and detectability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ballesteros, Guillermo [Museo Storico della Fisica e Centro Studi e Ricerche ' ' Enrico Fermi' ' , Piazza del Viminale 1, I-00184, Rome (Italy); Lesgourgues, Julien, E-mail: ballesteros@pd.infn.it, E-mail: julien.lesgourgues@cern.ch [CERN, Theory Division, CH-1211 Geneva 23 (Switzerland)

    2010-10-01

    Assuming that the universe contains a dark energy fluid with a constant linear equation of state and a constant sound speed, we study the prospects of detecting dark energy perturbations using CMB data from Planck, cross-correlated with galaxy distribution maps from a survey like LSST. We update previous estimates by carrying a full exploration of the mock data likelihood for key fiducial models. We find that it will only be possible to exclude values of the sound speed very close to zero, while Planck data alone is not powerful enough for achieving any detection, even with lensing extraction. We also discuss the issue of initial conditions for dark energy perturbations in the radiation and matter epochs, generalizing the usual adiabatic conditions to include the sound speed effect. However, for most purposes, the existence of attractor solutions renders the perturbation evolution nearly independent of these initial conditions.

  5. Predictive Condition Monitoring of Induction Motor Bearing Using Fuzzy Logic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Prof. Rakeshkumar A. Patel

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Induction motor is critical component in industrial processes and is frequently integrated in commercially available equipment. Safety, reliability, efficiency and performance are the major concerns of induction motor applications. Due to high reliability requirements and cost of breakdown, condition monitoring, diagnosis and Protection increasing importance. Protection of an induction motor (IM against possible problems, such as stator faults, rotor faults and mechanical faults, occurring in the course of its operation is very important, because it is very popular in industries. Bearing fault is well known mechanical fault of IM.41�0faults related to bearing in IM. To avoid break down of IM condition monitoring of motor bearing condition is very important during the normal operation. Various classical and AI techniques like fuzzy logic, neural network, neuro-fuzzy are used for condition monitoring and diagnosis of IM. Among the above mentioned AI techniques, Fuzzy logic is the best technique for condition monitoring and diagnosis of IM bearing condition. Therefore, the present paper focuses on fuzzy logic technique. In this paper Fuzzy logic is design for the condition monitoring and diagnosis of induction motor bearing condition using motor current and speed. After applying Fuzzy logic it has been seen that continuous monitoring of the current and speed values of the motor conditioned monitoring and diagnosis of induction motor bearing condition can be done.

  6. Simulations of the Richtmyer-Meshkov Instability with experimentally measured volumetric initial conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferguson, Kevin; Sewell, Everest; Krivets, Vitaliy; Greenough, Jeffrey; Jacobs, Jeffrey

    2016-11-01

    Initial conditions for the Richtmyer-Meshkov instability (RMI) are measured in three dimensions in the University of Arizona Vertical Shock Tube using a moving magnet galvanometer system. The resulting volumetric data is used as initial conditions for the simulation of the RMI using ARES at Lawrence-Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL). The heavy gas is sulfur hexafluoride (SF6), and the light gas is air. The perturbations are generated by harmonically oscillating the gasses vertically using two loudspeakers mounted to the shock tube which cause Faraday resonance, producing a random short wavelength perturbation on the interface. Planar Mie scattering is used to illuminate the flow field through the addition of propylene glycol particles seeded in the heavy gas. An M=1.2 shock impulsively accelerates the interface, initiating instability growth. Images of the initial condition and instability growth are captured at a rate of 6 kHz using high speed cameras. Comparisons between experimental and simulation results, mixing diagnostics, and mixing zone growth are presented.

  7. Acetobacter pasteurianus metabolic change induced by initial acetic acid to adapt to acetic acid fermentation conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Yu; Zhang, Renkuan; Yin, Haisong; Bai, Xiaolei; Chang, Yangang; Xia, Menglei; Wang, Min

    2017-08-02

    Initial acetic acid can improve the ethanol oxidation rate of acetic acid bacteria for acetic acid fermentation. In this work, Acetobacter pasteurianus was cultured in ethanol-free medium, and energy production was found to increase by 150% through glucose consumption induced by initial acetic acid. However, oxidation of ethanol, instead of glucose, became the main energy production pathway when upon culturing ethanol containing medium. Proteome assay was used to analyze the metabolism change induced by initial acetic acid, which provided insight into carbon metabolic and energy regulation of A. pasteurianus to adapt to acetic acid fermentation conditions. Results were further confirmed by quantitative real-time PCR. In summary, decreased intracellular ATP as a result of initial acetic acid inhibition improved the energy metabolism to produce more energy and thus adapt to the acetic acid fermentation conditions. A. pasteurianus upregulated the expression of enzymes related to TCA and ethanol oxidation to improve the energy metabolism pathway upon the addition of initial acetic acid. However, enzymes involved in the pentose phosphate pathway, the main pathway of glucose metabolism, were downregulated to induce a change in carbon metabolism. Additionally, the enhancement of alcohol dehydrogenase expression promoted ethanol oxidation and strengthened the acetification rate, thereby producing a strong proton motive force that was necessary for energy production and cell tolerance to acetic acid.

  8. 不同大尺度强迫条件下考虑初始场与侧边界条件不确定性的对流尺度集合预报试验%Convective-scale ensemble prediction experiments under dif-ferent large-scale forcing with consideration of uncertainties in initial and lateral boundary condition

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    庄潇然; 闵锦忠; 蔡沅辰; 朱浩楠

    2016-01-01

    As the first effort to develop a self-adaptive convective scale ensemble prediction system,this study examines two different initial perturbation methods for the simulation of two different types of heavy rain case and their impacts on precipitati-on prediction under the same lateral boundary perturbations.A suite of ensemble experiments has been conducted:In the first two experiments,both initial perturbation (ICs,include ETKF and DOWN)and lateral boundary perturbation (LBCs)are con-sidered,while in others experiments only ICs or LBCs are considered.Results show that under strong large scale forcing and when both ICs and LBCs are considered,the ETKF method provides more net perturbation energy in the early hours while the DOWN method provides more energy in the later hours of the integration.However,when the large scale forcing is weak,the ETKF method results in more perturbation energy than the DOWN method during the entire forecast period,indicating the im-portance of consistency between initial and lateral perturbations.Note that initial perturbation is always dominant at the first several hours of integration and LBCs is dominant in the following hours.The effect of initial perturbations is more distinct un-der strong large scale forcing than under weak large scale forcing.Meanwhile,the synoptic-scale forcing has significant impacts on quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF)and probability forecast skill.%研究了不同大尺度强迫条件下的暴雨个例中,考虑不同尺度特征的初始扰动与侧边界扰动相互作用构造对流尺度集合预报的可行性,为进一步构建“自适应”于不同强对流天气的对流尺度集合预报系统提供依据。结果表明,在大尺度强迫显著的个例1中,以大尺度扰动信息为主的动力降尺度的增长趋势较集合转换卡尔曼滤波(ETKF)更为显著,且总扰动能量在预报中后期超过集合转换卡尔曼滤波,而在大尺度强迫较弱的个例2

  9. Optimal initial condition of passive tracers for their maximal mixing in finite time

    CERN Document Server

    Farazmand, Mohammad

    2016-01-01

    The efficiency of a fluid mixing device is often limited by fundamental laws and/or design constraints, such that a perfectly homogeneous mixture cannot be obtained in finite time. Here, we address the natural corollary question: Given the best available mixer, what is the optimal initial tracer pattern that leads to the most homogeneous mixture after a prescribed finite time? For ideal passive tracers, we show that this optimal initial condition coincides with the right singular vector (corresponding to the smallest singular value) of a suitably truncated Koopman operator. The truncation of the Koopman operator is made under the assumption that there is a small length-scale threshold $\\ell_\

  10. The shear-free condition and constant-mean-curvature hyperboloidal initial data

    CERN Document Server

    Allen, Paul T; Lee, John M; Allen, Iva Stavrov

    2015-01-01

    We use the conformal method to construct and parametrize constant mean curvature hyperboloidal initial data sets of various regularity classes. These sets satisfy the Einstein-Maxwell-fluid constraint equations, and satisfy the shear-free boundary condition as well, so long as this condition is defined for the regularity class under consideration. We work primarily with initial data sets that are weakly asymptotically hyperbolic as defined in [arXiv:1506.03399]. For the least regular sets of weakly asymptotically hyperbolic data--those sets for which the metric extensions are merely Lipschitz continuous--the shear-free condition is not defined. For weakly asymptotically hyperbolic initial data sets with more regularity imposed, including those with polyhomogeneous expansions at the boundary, the shear-free condition is well defined; for these we use the conformally covariant traceless Hessian introduced in [arXiv:1506.03399], which is well adapted to the use of the conformal method in constructing shear-free ...

  11. Conditional Stochastic Processes Applied to Wave Load Predictions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Jørgen Juncher

    2015-01-01

    The concept of conditional stochastic processes provides a powerful tool for evaluation and estimation of wave loads on ships and offshore structures. This article first considers conditional waves with a focus on critical wave episodes. Then the inherent uncertainty in the results is illustrated...

  12. Conditional survival predictions after nephrectomy for renal cell carcinoma.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Karakiewicz, P.I.; Suardi, N.; Capitanio, U.; Isbarn, H.; Jeldres, C.; Perrotte, P.; Sun, M.; Ficarra, V.; Zigeuner, R.; Tostain, J.; Mejean, A.; Cindolo, L.; Pantuck, A.J.; Belldegrun, A.S.; Zini, L.; Taille, A. De La; Chautard, D.; Descotes, J.L.; Shariat, S.F.; Valeri, A.; Mulders, P.F.A.; Lang, H.; Lechevallier, E.; Patard, J.J.

    2009-01-01

    PURPOSE: Conditional survival implies that on average long-term cancer survivors have a better prognosis than do newly diagnosed individuals. We explored the effect of conditional survival in renal cell carcinoma. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We studied 3,560 patients with renal cell carcinoma of all stag

  13. Predicting Volatility and Correlations with Financial Conditions Indexes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A. Opschoor (Anne); D.J.C. van Dijk (Dick); M. van der Wel (Michel)

    2014-01-01

    textabstractWe model the impact of financial conditions on asset market volatilities and correlations. We extend the Spline-GARCH model for volatility and DCC model for correlation to allow for inclusion of indexes that measure financial conditions. In our empirical application we consider daily

  14. Predicting Volatility and Correlations with Financial Conditions Indexes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A. Opschoor (Anne); D.J.C. van Dijk (Dick); M. van der Wel (Michel)

    2014-01-01

    textabstractWe model the impact of financial conditions on asset market volatilities and correlations. We extend the Spline-GARCH model for volatility and DCC model for correlation to allow for inclusion of indexes that measure financial conditions. In our empirical application we consider daily sto

  15. Dynamical ejections of massive stars from young star clusters under diverse initial conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oh, Seungkyung; Kroupa, Pavel

    2016-05-01

    We study the effects that initial conditions of star clusters and their massive star population have on dynamical ejections of massive stars from star clusters up to an age of 3 Myr. We use a large set of direct N-body calculations for moderately massive star clusters (Mecl ≈ 103.5 M⊙). We vary the initial conditions of the calculations, such as the initial half-mass radius of the clusters, initial binary populations for massive stars and initial mass segregation. We find that the initial density is the most influential parameter for the ejection fraction of the massive systems. The clusters with an initial half-mass radius rh(0) of 0.1 (0.3) pc can eject up to 50% (30)% of their O-star systems on average, while initially larger (rh(0) = 0.8 pc) clusters, that is, lower density clusters, eject hardly any OB stars (at most ≈ 4.5%). When the binaries are composed of two stars of similar mass, the ejections are most effective. Most of the models show that the average ejection fraction decreases with decreasing stellar mass. For clusters that are efficient at ejecting O stars, the mass function of the ejected stars is top-heavy compared to the given initial mass function (IMF), while the mass function of stars that remain in the cluster becomes slightly steeper (top-light) than the IMF. The top-light mass functions of stars in 3 Myr old clusters in our N-body models agree well with the mean mass function of young intermediate-mass clusters in M 31, as reported previously. This implies that the IMF of the observed young clusters is the canonical IMF. We show that the multiplicity fraction of the ejected massive stars can be as high as ≈ 60%, that massive high-order multiple systems can be dynamically ejected, and that high-order multiples become common especially in the cluster. We also discuss binary populations of the ejected massive systems. Clusters that are initially not mass-segregated begin ejecting massive stars after a time delay that is caused by mass

  16. Neural correlates of error monitoring in adolescents prospectively predict initiation of tobacco use

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrey P. Anokhin

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Deficits in self-regulation of behavior can play an important role in the initiation of substance use and progression to regular use and dependence. One of the distinct component processes of self-regulation is error monitoring, i.e. detection of a conflict between the intended and actually executed action. Here we examined whether a neural marker of error monitoring, Error-Related Negativity (ERN, predicts future initiation of tobacco use. ERN was assessed in a prospective longitudinal sample at ages 12, 14, and 16 using a flanker task. ERN amplitude showed a significant increase with age during adolescence. Reduced ERN amplitude at ages 14 and 16, as well as slower rate of its developmental changes significantly predicted initiation of tobacco use by age 18 but not transition to regular tobacco use or initiation of marijuana and alcohol use. The present results suggest that attenuated development of the neural mechanisms of error monitoring during adolescence can increase the risk for initiation of tobacco use. The present results also suggest that the role of distinct neurocognitive component processes involved in behavioral regulation may be limited to specific stages of addiction.

  17. Diagnostic performance of initial serum lactate for predicting bacteremia in female patients with acute pyelonephritis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seo, Dong Young; Jo, Sion; Lee, Jae Baek; Jin, Young Ho; Jeong, Taeoh; Yoon, Jaechol; Park, Boyoung

    2016-08-01

    The purpose of the present study was to investigate the diagnostic value of lactate for predicting bacteremia in female patients with acute pyelonephritis (APN). We conducted a retrospective study of female patients with APN who visited the study hospital emergency department. The demographics, comorbidities, physiologies, and laboratory variables including white blood cell count and segmented neutrophil count, C-reactive protein, and initial serum lactate levels were collected and analyzed to identify associations with the presence of bacteremia. During the study period, a total of 314 patients were enrolled. One hundred twenty-three patients (39.2%) had bacteremia. Escherichia coli was the most frequent pathogen. Logistic regression analysis demonstrated that the lactate level was independently associated with the presence of bacteremia (odds ratio, 1.39 [95% confidence interval, 1.08-1.78]). The C-statistic of the lactate level was 0.67 (95% CI, 0.60-0.73). At a cutoff value of 1.4mmol/L, the lactate level predicted bacteremia with a sensitivity (53.7%), specificity (72.3%), positive predictive value (55.5%), negative predictive value (70.8%), positive likelihood ratio (1.93), and negative likelihood ratio (0.64). The initial serum lactate level showed poor discriminative performance for predicting bacteremia in female patients with APN. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Are turbulent spheres suitable initial conditions for star-forming clouds?

    CERN Document Server

    Rey-Raposo, Ramon; Duarte-Cabral, Ana

    2014-01-01

    To date, most numerical simulations of molecular clouds, and star formation within them, assume a uniform density sphere or box with an imposed turbulent velocity field. In this work, we select molecular clouds from galactic scale simulations as initial conditions, increase their resolution, and re-simulate them using the SPH code Gadget2. Our approach provides clouds with morphologies, internal structures, and kinematics that constitute more consistent and realistic initial conditions for simulations of star formation. We perform comparisons between molecular clouds derived from a galactic simulation, and spheres of turbulent gas of similar dimensions, mass and velocity dispersion. We focus on properties of the clouds such as their density, velocity structure and star formation rate. We find that the inherited velocity structure of the galactic clouds has a significant impact on the star formation rate and evolution of the cloud. Our results indicate that, although we can follow the time evolution of star fo...

  19. Abstract fractional integro-differential equations involving nonlocal initial conditions in α-norm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wang Rong-Nian

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract In the present paper, we deal with the Cauchy problems of abstract fractional integro-differential equations involving nonlocal initial conditions in α-norm, where the operator A in the linear part is the generator of a compact analytic semigroup. New criterions, ensuring the existence of mild solutions, are established. The results are obtained by using the theory of operator families associated with the function of Wright type and the semigroup generated by A, Krasnoselkii's fixed point theorem and Schauder's fixed point theorem. An application to a fractional partial integro-differential equation with nonlocal initial condition is also considered. Mathematics subject classification (2000 26A33, 34G10, 34G20

  20. Anomalous transport in cellular flows: The role of initial conditions and aging

    CERN Document Server

    Pöschke, Patrick; Nepomnyashchy, Alexander A; Zaks, Michael A

    2016-01-01

    We consider the diffusion-advection problem in two simple cellular flow models (often invoked as examples for subdiffusive tracer's motion) and concentrate on the intermediate time range, in which the tracer's motion indeed may show subdiffusion. We have performed extensive numerical simulations of the systems under different initial conditions, and show that the pure intermediate-time subdiffusion regime is only evident when the particles start at the border between different cells, i.e. at the separatrix, and is less pronounced or absent for other initial conditions. The motion moreover shows quite peculiar aging properties which are also mirrored in the behavior of the time-averaged mean squared displacement for single trajectories. This kind of behavior is due to the complex motion of tracers trapped inside the cell, and is absent in classical models based on continuous time random walks (CTRW) with no dynamics in the trapped state.

  1. Anomalous transport in cellular flows: The role of initial conditions and aging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pöschke, Patrick; Sokolov, Igor M.; Nepomnyashchy, Alexander A.; Zaks, Michael A.

    2016-09-01

    We consider the diffusion-advection problem in two simple cellular flow models (often invoked as examples of subdiffusive tracer motion) and concentrate on the intermediate time range, in which the tracer motion indeed may show subdiffusion. We perform extensive numerical simulations of the systems under different initial conditions and show that the pure intermediate-time subdiffusion regime is only evident when the particles start at the border between different cells, i.e., at the separatrix, and is less pronounced or absent for other initial conditions. The motion moreover shows quite peculiar aging properties, which are also mirrored in the behavior of the time-averaged mean squared displacement for single trajectories. This kind of behavior is due to the complex motion of tracers trapped inside the cell and is absent in classical models based on continuous-time random walks with no dynamics in the trapped state.

  2. Algorithmic independence of initial condition and dynamical law in thermodynamics and causal inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janzing, Dominik; Chaves, Rafael; Schölkopf, Bernhard

    2016-09-01

    We postulate a principle stating that the initial condition of a physical system is typically algorithmically independent of the dynamical law. We discuss the implications of this principle and argue that they link thermodynamics and causal inference. On the one hand, they entail behavior that is similar to the usual arrow of time. On the other hand, they motivate a statistical asymmetry between cause and effect that has recently been postulated in the field of causal inference, namely, that the probability distribution {P}{{cause}} contains no information about the conditional distribution {P}{{effect}| {{cause}}} and vice versa, while {P}{{effect}} may contain information about {P}{{cause}| {{effect}}}.

  3. Body condition predicts energy stores in apex predatory sharks

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Gallagher, Austin J; Wagner, Dominique N; Irschick, Duncan J; Hammerschlag, Neil

    2014-01-01

    Animal condition typically reflects the accumulation of energy stores (e.g. fatty acids), which can influence an individual's decision to undertake challenging life-history events, such as migration and reproduction...

  4. Discretizing LTI Descriptor (Regular Differential Input Systems with Consistent Initial Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Athanasios D. Karageorgos

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available A technique for discretizing efficiently the solution of a Linear descriptor (regular differential input system with consistent initial conditions, and Time-Invariant coefficients (LTI is introduced and fully discussed. Additionally, an upper bound for the error ‖x¯(kT−x¯k‖ that derives from the procedure of discretization is also provided. Practically speaking, we are interested in such kind of systems, since they are inherent in many physical, economical and engineering phenomena.

  5. Massive Infrared-Quiet Dense Cores: Unveiling the Initial Conditions of High-Mass Star Formation

    CERN Document Server

    Motte, Frédérique; Schneider, N; Schilke, P; Menten, K M

    2008-01-01

    As Pr. Th. Henning said at the conference, cold precursors of high-mass stars are now "hot topics". We here propose some observational criteria to identify massive infrared-quiet dense cores which can host the high-mass analogs of Class 0 protostars and pre-stellar condensations. We also show how far-infrared to millimeter imaging surveys of entire complexes forming OB stars are starting to unveil the initial conditions of high-mass star formation.

  6. Minijet Initial Conditions For Non-Equilibrium Parton Evolution at RHIC and LHC

    CERN Document Server

    Cooper, F; Nayak, G C

    2003-01-01

    An important ingredient for the non-equilibrium evolution of partons at RHIC and LHC is to have some physically reasonable initial conditions for the single particle phase space distribution functions for the partons. We consider several plausible parametrizations of initial conditions for the single particle distribution function f /sub i/ (x, p) and fix the parameters by matching integral f (x, p)p /sup mu / d sigma /sub mu / to the invariant momentum space semi-hard parton distributions obtained using perturbative QCD (pQCD), as well as fitting low order moments of the distribution function. We consider parametrizations of fi (x, p) with both boost invariant and boost non-invariant assumptions. We determine the initial number density, energy density and the corresponding (effective) temperature of the minijet plasma at RHIC and LHC energies. For a boost non- invariant minijet phase-space distribution function we obtain ~ 30 (140)/fm/sup 3/ as the initial number density, ~ 50(520) GeV/fm/sup 3 / as the init...

  7. Optimal initial condition of passive tracers for their maximal mixing in finite time

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farazmand, Mohammad

    2017-05-01

    The efficiency of fluid flow for mixing passive tracers is often limited by fundamental laws and/or design constraints, such that a perfectly homogeneous mixture cannot be obtained in finite time. Here we address the natural corollary question: Given a fluid flow, what is the optimal initial tracer pattern that leads to the most homogeneous mixture after a prescribed finite time? For ideal passive tracers, we show that this optimal initial condition coincides with the right singular vector (corresponding to the smallest singular value) of a suitably truncated Perron-Frobenius (PF) operator. The truncation of the PF operator is made under the assumption that there is a small length-scale threshold ℓν under which the tracer blobs are considered, for all practical purposes, completely mixed. We demonstrate our results on two examples: a prototypical model known as the sine flow and a direct numerical simulation of two-dimensional turbulence. Evaluating the optimal initial condition through this framework requires only the position of a dense grid of fluid particles at the final instance and their preimages at the initial instance of the prescribed time interval. As such, our framework can be readily applied to flows where such data are available through numerical simulations or experimental measurements.

  8. Pre-slow roll initial conditions: large scale power suppression and infrared aspects during inflation

    CERN Document Server

    Lello, Louis; Holman, Richard

    2013-01-01

    If the large scale anomalies in the temperature power spectrum of the cosmic microwave background are of primordial origin, they may herald modifications to the slow roll inflationary paradigm on the largest scales. We study the possibility that the origin of the large scale power suppression is a modification of initial conditions during slow roll as a result of a pre-slow roll phase during which the inflaton evolves rapidly. This stage is manifest in a potential in the equations for the Gaussian fluctuations during slow roll and modify the power spectra of scalar and tensor perturbations via an initial condition transfer function $\\mathcal{T}(k)$. We provide a general analytical study of its large and small scale properties and analyze the impact of these initial conditions on the infrared aspects of typical scalar field theories. The infrared behavior of massless minimally coupled scalar field theories leads to the dynamical generation of mass and anomalous dimensions, both depend non-analytically on $\\mat...

  9. Simple spatial prediction - least squares prediction, simple kriging, and conditional expectation of normal vector

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ligas, Marcin; Kulczycki, Marek

    2010-01-01

    The aim of the paper is the comparison of the least squares prediction presented by Heiskanen and Moritz (1967) in the classical handbook "Physical Geodesy" with the geostatistical method of simple kriging as well as in case of Gaussian random fields their equivalence to conditional expectation. The paper contains also short notes on the extension of simple kriging to ordinary kriging by dropping the assumption of known mean value of a random field as well as some necessary information on random fields, covariance function and semivariogram function. The semivariogram is emphasized in the paper, for two reasons. Firstly, the semivariogram describes broader class of phenomena, and for the second order stationary processes it is equivalent to the covariance function. Secondly, the analysis of different kinds of phenomena in terms of covariance is more common. Thus, it is worth introducing another function describing spatial continuity and variability. For the ease of presentation all the considerations were limited to the Euclidean space (thus, for limited areas) although with some extra effort they can be extended to manifolds like sphere, ellipsoid, etc.

  10. Magnetic field amplification during gravitational collapse - Influence of initial conditions on dynamo evolution and saturation

    CERN Document Server

    Sur, Sharanya; Schleicher, Dominik R G; Banerjee, Robi; Klessen, Ralf S

    2012-01-01

    We study the influence of initial conditions on the magnetic field amplification during the collapse of a magnetised gas cloud. We focus on the dependence of the growth and saturation level of the dynamo generated field on the turbulent properties of the collapsing cloud. In particular, we explore the effect of varying the initial strength and injection scale of turbulence and the initial uniform rotation of the collapsing magnetised cloud. In order to follow the evolution of the magnetic field in both the kinematic and the nonlinear regime, we choose an initial field strength of $\\simeq 1\\,\\mkG$ with the magnetic to kinetic energy ratio, $E_{\\rm m}/E_{\\rm k} \\sim 10^{-4}$. Both gravitational compression and the small-scale dynamo initially amplify the magnetic field. Further into the evolution, the dynamo-generated magnetic field saturates but the total magnetic field continues to grow because of compression. The saturation of the small-scale dynamo is marked by a change in the slope of $B/\\rho^{2/3}$ and by...

  11. Terrestrial-type planet formation: Comparing different types of initial conditions

    CERN Document Server

    Ronco, M P; Guilera, O M

    2015-01-01

    To study the terrestrial-type planet formation during the post oligarchic growth, the initial distributions of planetary embryos and planetesimals used in N-body simulations play an important role. Most of these studies typically use ad hoc initial distributions based on theoretical and numerical studies. We analyze the formation of planetary systems without gas giants around solar-type stars focusing on the sensitivity of the results to the particular initial distributions of planetesimals and embryos. The formation of terrestrial planets in the habitable zone (HZ) and their final water contents are topics of interest. We developed two different sets of N-body simulations from the same protoplanetary disk. The first set assumes ad hoc initial distributions for embryos and planetesimals and the second set obtains these distributions from the results of a semi-analytical model which simulates the evolution of the gaseous phase of the disk. Both sets form planets in the HZ. Ad hoc initial conditions form planet...

  12. Heart rate variability predicts the magnitude of heart rate decrease after fingolimod initiation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simula, Sakari; Laitinen, Tomi P; Laitinen, Tiina M; Hartikainen, Päivi; Hartikainen, Juha Ek

    2016-11-01

    Fingolimod is an immunomodulator with a disease modifying effect on relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS). A heart rate (HR) decrease shortly after fingolimod initiation, however, requires a clinical vigilance. The aim of this study was to prospectively investigate whether cardiac autonomic regulation can predict the magnitude of HR decrease after fingolimod initiation. Twenty-five patients with RRMS underwent ambulatory 24-h electrocardiogram recording to assess HR variability 20±16 days before fingolimod initiation (baseline) and repeated at the day of fingolimod initiation to assess the magnitude of HR decrease. The percentage of normal RR-intervals with duration more than 50ms different from the previous normal RR-interval (pNN50) was calculated (among the other HR variability parameters) to assess cardiac autonomic regulation. The maximal HR decrease (ΔHR) after the first dose of fingolimod was assessed in absolute units (beats/min) and in percentage (%). The maximal ΔHR was -20±11 beats/min (-23±12%) on the average. pNN50 calculated at baseline correlated with ΔHR% (r=-0.657, pdecrease ≥20% was found in 10/14 patients with pNN50≥10%. The positive and negative predictive values of pNN50≥10% to predict ΔHR≥20% were 83% and 69%, respectively leading to accuracy of 76%. Cardiac autonomic regulation (pNN50>10%) at baseline can be used to predict the magnitude of HR decrease after the first dose of fingolimod. ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT01704183). Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. Growth condition-dependent Esp expression by Enterococcus faecium affects initial adherence and biofilm formation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Wamel, Willem J B; Hendrickx, Antoni P A; Bonten, Marc J M; Top, Janetta; Posthuma, George; Willems, Rob J L

    2007-02-01

    A genetic subpopulation of Enterococcus faecium, called clonal complex 17 (CC-17), is strongly associated with hospital outbreaks and invasive infections. Most CC-17 strains contain a putative pathogenicity island encoding the E. faecium variant of enterococcal surface protein (Esp). Western blotting, flow cytometric analyses, and electron microscopy showed that Esp is expressed and exposed on the surface of E. faecium, though Esp expression and surface exposure are highly varied among different strains. Furthermore, Esp expression depends on growth conditions like temperature and anaerobioses. When grown at 37 degrees C, five of six esp-positive E. faecium strains showed significantly increased levels of surface-exposed Esp compared to bacteria grown at 21 degrees C, which was confirmed at the transcriptional level by real-time PCR. In addition, a significant increase in surface-exposed Esp was found in half of these strains when grown at 37 degrees C under anaerobic conditions compared to the level in bacteria grown under aerobic conditions. Finally, amounts of surface-exposed Esp correlated with initial adherence to polystyrene (R(2) = 0.7146) and biofilm formation (R(2) = 0.7535). Polystyrene adherence was competitively inhibited by soluble recombinant N-terminal Esp. This study demonstrates that Esp expression on the surface of E. faecium (i) varies consistently between strains, (ii) is growth condition dependent, and (iii) is quantitatively correlated with initial adherence and biofilm formation. These data indicate that E. faecium senses and responds to changing environmental conditions, which might play a role in the early stages of infection when bacteria transit from oxygen-rich conditions at room temperature to anaerobic conditions at body temperature. In addition, variation of surface exposure may explain the contrasting findings reported on the role of Esp in biofilm formation.

  14. Robust Initial Wetness Condition Framework of an Event-Based Rainfall–Runoff Model Using Remotely Sensed Soil Moisture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wooyeon Sunwoo

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Runoff prediction in limited-data areas is vital for hydrological applications, such as the design of infrastructure and flood defenses, runoff forecasting, and water management. Rainfall–runoff models may be useful for simulation of runoff generation, particularly event-based models, which offer a practical modeling scheme because of their simplicity. However, there is a need to reduce the uncertainties related to the estimation of the initial wetness condition (IWC prior to a rainfall event. Soil moisture is one of the most important variables in rainfall–runoff modeling, and remotely sensed soil moisture is recognized as an effective way to improve the accuracy of runoff prediction. In this study, the IWC was evaluated based on remotely sensed soil moisture by using the Soil Conservation Service-Curve Number (SCS-CN method, which is one of the representative event-based models used for reducing the uncertainty of runoff prediction. Four proxy variables for the IWC were determined from the measurements of total rainfall depth (API5, ground-based soil moisture (SSMinsitu, remotely sensed surface soil moisture (SSM, and soil water index (SWI provided by the advanced scatterometer (ASCAT. To obtain a robust IWC framework, this study consists of two main parts: the validation of remotely sensed soil moisture, and the evaluation of runoff prediction using four proxy variables with a set of rainfall–runoff events in the East Asian monsoon region. The results showed an acceptable agreement between remotely sensed soil moisture (SSM and SWI and ground based soil moisture data (SSMinsitu. In the proxy variable analysis, the SWI indicated the optimal value among the proposed proxy variables. In the runoff prediction analysis considering various infiltration conditions, the SSM and SWI proxy variables significantly reduced the runoff prediction error as compared with API5 by 60% and 66%, respectively. Moreover, the proposed IWC framework with

  15. Application of the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation method to the predictability study of the Kuroshio large meander

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Qiang; Mu, Mu; Dijkstra, Henk A.

    2012-01-01

    A reduced-gravity barotropic shallow-water model was used to simulate the Kuroshio path variations. The results show that the model was able to capture the essential features of these path variations. We used one simulation of the model as the reference state and investigated the effects of errors in model parameters on the prediction of the transition to the Kuroshio large meander (KLM) state using the conditional nonlinear optimal parameter perturbation (CNOP-P) method. Because of their relatively large uncertainties, three model parameters were considered: the interfacial friction coefficient, the wind-stress amplitude, and the lateral friction coefficient. We determined the CNOP-Ps optimized for each of these three parameters independently, and we optimized all three parameters simultaneously using the Spectral Projected Gradient 2 (SPG2) algorithm. Similarly, the impacts caused by errors in initial conditions were examined using the conditional nonlinear optimal initial perturbation (CNOP-I) method. Both the CNOP-I and CNOP-Ps can result in significant prediction errors of the KLM over a lead time of 240 days. But the prediction error caused by CNOP-I is greater than that caused by CNOP-P. The results of this study indicate not only that initial condition errors have greater effects on the prediction of the KLM than errors in model parameters but also that the latter cannot be ignored. Hence, to enhance the forecast skill of the KLM in this model, the initial conditions should first be improved, the model parameters should use the best possible estimates.

  16. Application of the Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation Method to the Predictability Study of the Kuroshio Large Meander

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Qiang; MU Mu; Henk A. DIJKSTRA

    2012-01-01

    A reduced-gravity barotropic shallow-water model was used to simulate the Kuroshio path variations.The results show that the model was able to capture the essential features of these path variations.We used one simulation of the model as the reference state and investigated the effects of errors in model parameters on the prediction of the transition to the Kuroshio large meander (KLM) state using the conditional nonlinear optimal parameter perturbation (CNOP-P) method.Because of their relatively large uncertainties,three model parameters were considcred:the interfacial friction coefficient,the wind-stress amplitude,and the lateral friction coefficient.We determined the CNOP-Ps optimized for each of these three parameters independently,and we optimized all three parameters simultaneously using the Spectral Projected Gradient 2 (SPG2) algorithm.Similarly,the impacts caused by errors in initial conditions were examined using the conditional nonlinear optimal initial perturbation (CNOP-I) method.Both the CNOP-I and CNOP-Ps can result in significant prediction errors of the KLM over a lead time of 240 days.But the prediction error caused by CNOP-I is greater than that caused by CNOP-P.The results of this study indicate not only that initial condition errors have greater effects on the prediction of the KLM than errors in model parameters but also that the latter cannot be ignored.Hence,to enhance the forecast skill of the KLM in this model,the initial conditions should first be improved,the model parameters should use the best possible estimates.

  17. Symbolic computation of analytic approximate solutions for nonlinear differential equations with initial conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Yezhi; Liu, Yinping; Li, Zhibin

    2012-01-01

    The Adomian decomposition method (ADM) is one of the most effective methods for constructing analytic approximate solutions of nonlinear differential equations. In this paper, based on the new definition of the Adomian polynomials, and the two-step Adomian decomposition method (TSADM) combined with the Padé technique, a new algorithm is proposed to construct accurate analytic approximations of nonlinear differential equations with initial conditions. Furthermore, a MAPLE package is developed, which is user-friendly and efficient. One only needs to input a system, initial conditions and several necessary parameters, then our package will automatically deliver analytic approximate solutions within a few seconds. Several different types of examples are given to illustrate the validity of the package. Our program provides a helpful and easy-to-use tool in science and engineering to deal with initial value problems. Program summaryProgram title: NAPA Catalogue identifier: AEJZ_v1_0 Program summary URL:http://cpc.cs.qub.ac.uk/summaries/AEJZ_v1_0.html Program obtainable from: CPC Program Library, Queen's University, Belfast, N. Ireland Licensing provisions: Standard CPC licence, http://cpc.cs.qub.ac.uk/licence/licence.html No. of lines in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 4060 No. of bytes in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 113 498 Distribution format: tar.gz Programming language: MAPLE R13 Computer: PC Operating system: Windows XP/7 RAM: 2 Gbytes Classification: 4.3 Nature of problem: Solve nonlinear differential equations with initial conditions. Solution method: Adomian decomposition method and Padé technique. Running time: Seconds at most in routine uses of the program. Special tasks may take up to some minutes.

  18. Neural Network Prediction of Translation Initiation Sites in Eukaryotes: Perspectives for EST and Genome analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Anders Gorm; Nielsen, Henrik

    1997-01-01

    Translation in eukaryotes does not always start at the first AUG in an mRNA, implying that context information also plays a role.This makes prediction of translation initiation sites a non-trivial task, especially when analysing EST and genome data where the entire mature mRNA sequence is not known...... and global sequence information. Furthermore, analysis of false predictions shows that AUGs in frame with the actual start codon are more frequently selected than out-of-frame AUGs, suggesting that our nteworks use reading frame detection. A number of conflicts between neural network predictions and database...... annotations are analysed in detail, leading to identification of possible database errors....

  19. THE IMPACT OF INITIAL FORCED WIND ON THE PREDICTABILITY OF THE ZEBIAK-CANE COUPLED OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE MODEL

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YUE Cai-jun; LU Wei-song; LI Qing-quan

    2006-01-01

    With simultaneous observed sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA), the difference between NCEP/NCAR 925hPa reanalysis wind stress anomaly (NCEPWSA) and FSU wind stress anomaly (FSUWSA) is analyzed, and the prediction abilities of Zebiak-Cane coupled ocean-atmosphere model (ZC coupled model) with NCEPWSA and FSUWSA serving respectively as initialization wind are compared. The results are as follows.The distribution feature of NCEPWSA matches better with that of the observed SSTA than counterpart of FSUWSA both in 1980s and in 1990s; The ZC ocean model has a better skill under the forcing of NCEPWSA than that of FSUWSA, especially in 1990s. Meanwhile, the forecast abilities of the ZC coupled model in 1990s as well as in 1980s have been improved employing NCEPWSA as initialization wind instead of FSUWSA.Particularly, it succeeded in predicting 1997/1998 El Ni(n)o 6 to 8 months ahead; further analysis shows that on the antecedent and onset stages of the 1997/1998 El Ni(n)o event, the horizontal cold and warm distribution characteristics of the simulated SSTA from ZC ocean model, with NCEPWSA forcing compared to FSUWSA forcing, match better with counterparts of the corresponding observed SSTA, whereby providing better predication initialization conditions for ZC coupled model, which, in turn, is favorable to improve the forecast ability of the coupled model.

  20. Validation of the criteria for initiating the cleaning of heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) ductwork under real conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lavoie, Jacques; Marchand, Geneviève; Cloutier, Yves; Lavoué, Jérôme

    2011-08-01

    Dust accumulation in the components of heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems is a potential source of contaminants. To date, very little information is available on recognized methods for assessing dust buildup in these systems. The few existing methods are either objective in nature, involving numerical values, or subjective in nature, based on experts' judgments. An earlier project aimed at assessing different methods of sampling dust in ducts was carried out in the laboratories of the Institut de recherche Robert-Sauvé en santé et en sécurité du travail (IRSST). This laboratory study showed that all the sampling methods were practicable, provided that a specific surface-dust cleaning initiation criterion was used for each method. However, these conclusions were reached on the basis of ideal conditions in a laboratory using a reference dust. The objective of this present study was to validate these laboratory results in the field. To this end, the laboratory sampling templates were replicated in real ducts and the three sampling methods (the IRSST method, the method of the U.S. organization National Air Duct Cleaner Association [NADCA] and that of the French organization Association pour la Prévention et l'Étude de la Contamination [ASPEC]) were used simultaneously in a statistically representative number of systems. The air return and supply ducts were also compared. Cleaning initiation criteria under real conditions were found to be 6.0 mg/100 cm(2) using the IRSST method, 2.0 mg/100 cm(2) using the NADCA method, and 23 mg/100 cm(2) using the ASPEC method. In the laboratory study, the criteria using the same methods were 6.0 for the IRSST method, 2.0 for the NADCA method, and 3.0 for the ASPEC method. The laboratory criteria for the IRSST and NADCA methods were therefore validated in the field. The ASPEC criterion was the only one to change. The ASPEC method therefore allows for the most accurate evaluation of dust accumulation in HVAC

  1. Predicting growth conditions from internal metabolic fluxes in an in-silico model of E. coli.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Viswanadham Sridhara

    Full Text Available A widely studied problem in systems biology is to predict bacterial phenotype from growth conditions, using mechanistic models such as flux balance analysis (FBA. However, the inverse prediction of growth conditions from phenotype is rarely considered. Here we develop a computational framework to carry out this inverse prediction on a computational model of bacterial metabolism. We use FBA to calculate bacterial phenotypes from growth conditions in E. coli, and then we assess how accurately we can predict the original growth conditions from the phenotypes. Prediction is carried out via regularized multinomial regression. Our analysis provides several important physiological and statistical insights. First, we show that by analyzing metabolic end products we can consistently predict growth conditions. Second, prediction is reliable even in the presence of small amounts of impurities. Third, flux through a relatively small number of reactions per growth source (∼10 is sufficient for accurate prediction. Fourth, combining the predictions from two separate models, one trained only on carbon sources and one only on nitrogen sources, performs better than models trained to perform joint prediction. Finally, that separate predictions perform better than a more sophisticated joint prediction scheme suggests that carbon and nitrogen utilization pathways, despite jointly affecting cellular growth, may be fairly decoupled in terms of their dependence on specific assortments of molecular precursors.

  2. Prediction of Typhoon Wind Speeds under Global Warming Conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Choun, Young Sun; Kim, Min Kyu [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Kang, Ju Whan; Kim, Yang Seon [Mokpo National University, Muan (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-05-15

    The continuous increase of SST by global warming conditions in the western North Pacific Ocean results in an increased occurrence of supertyphoons in East Asia and the Korean Peninsula. Recent numerical experiments have found that the central pressures of two historical typhoons, Maemi (2003) and Rusa (2002), which recorded the highest storm surges along the coasts of the Korean Peninsula, dropped about 19 and 17 hPa, respectively, when considering the future SST (a warming of 3.9 .deg. C for 100 years) over the East China Sea. The maximum wind speeds increase under global warming conditions. The probability of occurrence of super-typhoons increases in the future. The estimated return period for supertyphoons affecting the Younggwang site is about 1,000,000 years.

  3. Predictive Condition Monitoring of Induction Motor Bearing Using Fuzzy Logic

    OpenAIRE

    2012-01-01

    Induction motor is critical component in industrial processes and is frequently integrated in commercially available equipment. Safety, reliability, efficiency and performance are the major concerns of induction motor applications. Due to high reliability requirements and cost of breakdown, condition monitoring, diagnosis and Protection increasing importance. Protection of an induction motor (IM) against possible problems, such as stator faults, rotor faults and mechanical faults, occurring i...

  4. The problem of the initial conditions in flavoured leptogenesis and the tauon N_2-dominated scenario

    CERN Document Server

    Bertuzzo, Enrico; Marzola, Luca

    2010-01-01

    We discuss the conditions to realize a scenario of strong thermal leptogenesis, where the final asymmetry is fully independent of the initial conditions, when both heavy and light flavor effects are taken into account. In particular the contribution to the final asymmetry from a residual initial pre-existing asymmetry has to be negligible. We show that in the case of a hierarchical right-handed (RH) neutrino mass spectrum, the only possible way is a N_2-dominated leptogenesis scenario with a lightest RH neutrino mass M_1 10^9 GeV and with a next-to-lightest RH neutrino mass 10^12 GeV M_2 >> 10^9 GeV. This scenario necessarily requires the presence of a heaviest third RH neutrino specie. Moreover, we show that the final asymmetry has to be dominantly produced in the tauon flavour while the electron and the muon asymmetries have to be efficiently washed out by the lightest RH neutrino inverse processes. Intriguingly, such seemingly special conditions for successful strong thermal leptogenesis are naturally fu...

  5. Initial growth of Bauhinia variegata trees under different colored shade nets and light conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Renata Bachin Mazzini-Guedes

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Bauhinia variegata and B. variegata var. candida, commonly known as orchid trees, are small sized trees widely used for urban forestry and landscaping. Adult plants grow under full sun; in Brazil, however, seedlings are generally cultivated in commercial nurseries under natural half-shading. The objective of this study was to evaluate the influence of different colored shade nets and light conditions on the initial growth of B. variegata and B. variegata var. candida. The influence of six light conditions (red net with 50% shading; blue net with 50% shading; black net with 70% shading; black net with 50% shading; black net with 30% shading; and full sun on the initial growth of B. variegata and B. variegata var. candida were evaluated along 160 days, and growth relationships were calculated. Seedlings showed more efficiency on the use of photoassimilated compounds when grown under full sun. Such condition is the most appropriate for seedling production of B. variegata and B. variegata var. candida, contradicting what has been performed in practice.

  6. Impact of the initial tropospheric zenith path delay on precise point positioning convergence during active conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalita, J. Z.; Rzepecka, Z.

    2017-04-01

    Tropospheric delay is one of the key factors that influence the convergence time of the precise point positioning (PPP) method. Current models do not allow for the fixing of the zenith path delay tropospheric parameter, leaving the difference between nominal and final value to the estimation process. Here, we present an analysis of several PPP result-sets using the tropospheric parameter’s nominal value adopted from models: VMF1, GPT2w, MOPS, and ZERO-WET. The last variant assumes a zero value for the initial wet part of the zenith delay. The PPP results are subtracted from a solution based on the final tropospheric product from the International GNSS Service (IGS). Several days exhibiting the most active tropospheric conditions were selected for each of the 7 stations located in the mid-latitude Central European region. During the active days, application of the VMF1 model increases the resulting height component’s quality by about 33–36% when compared to the GPT2w and MOPS. The respective improvement in VMF1 latitude and longitude components is 27% and 15%. The average relative deterioration in the result standard deviations between active and calm tropospheric conditions reaches about 20–30% of the former. We discuss the impact of the initial tropospheric parameter’s variance and bias on positioning. In addition, we compare the results with those of other studies over the impact of active tropospheric conditions on the PPP method.

  7. The Conditions for Initiating "All-or-Nothing" Repolarization in Cardiac Muscle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noble, D.; Hall, A. E.

    1963-01-01

    Solutions have been computed for the point polarization of an infinite cable-like membrane obeying the equations used to reproduce the Purkinje fiber action potential (Noble, 1960, 1962a) in order to determine the conditions for initiating all-or-nothing repolarization during the action potential plateau. It was found that all-or-nothing repolarization would not be obtainable during the first half of the action potential in spite of the fact that the membrane current-voltage relations contain regions of negative conductance. At the point at which the all-or-nothing response is first obtained, the computed threshold is large and repolarization almost back to the resting potential would be required in order to initiate the response. The results are discussed in relation to the experimental evidence at present available on repolarization in heart muscle. PMID:19431326

  8. The relaxation of initial condition in systems with infinitely many absorbing states

    CERN Document Server

    Ódor, G; Dos Santos, M A; Marques, M C; Odor, Geza

    1998-01-01

    We have investigated the effect of the initial condition on the spreading exponents of the one-dimensional pair contact process (PCP) and threshold transfer process (TTP).The non-order field was found to exhibit critical fluctuations, relaxing to its natural value with the same power-law as the order parameter field. We argue that this slow relaxation, which was not taken into account in earlier studies of these models, is responsible for the continuously changing survival probability exponent. High precision numerical simulations show evidence of a(slight) dependence of the location of the transition point on the initial concentration, in the case of PCP. The damage spreading (DS) point and the spreading exponents coincide with those of the ordinary critical point in both cases.

  9. High burnup fuel behavior related to fission gas effects under reactivity initiated accidents (RIA) conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lemoine, F.

    1997-09-01

    Specific aspects of irradiated fuel result from the increasing retention of gaseous and volatile fission products with burnup, which, under overpower conditions, can lead to solid fuel pressurization and swelling causing severe PCMI (pellet clad mechanical interaction). In order to assess the reliability of high burnup fuel under RIAs, experimental programs have been initiated which have provided important data concerning the transient fission gas behavior and the clad loading mechanisms. The importance of the rim zone is demonstrated based on three experiments resulting in clad failure at low enthalpy, which are explained by energetic considerations. High gas release in non-failure tests with low energy deposition underlines the importance of grain boundary and porosity gas. Measured final releases are strongly correlated to the microstructure evolution, depending on energy deposition, pulse width, initial and refabricated fuel rod design. Observed helium release can also increase internal pressure and gives hints to the gas behavior understanding.

  10. Transient fuel behavior of preirradiated PWR fuels under reactivity initiated accident conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fujishiro, Toshio; Yanagisawa, Kazuaki; Ishijima, Kiyomi; Shiba, Koreyuki

    1992-06-01

    Since 1975, extensive studies on transient fuel behavior under reactivity initiated accident (RIA) conditions have been continued in the Nuclear Safety Research Reactor (NSRR) of Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute. A new experimental program with preirradiated LWR fuel rods as test samples has recently been started. In this program, transient behavior and failure initiation have been studied with 14 × 14 type PWR fuel rods preirradiated to a burnup of 20 to 42 MWd/kgU. The test fuel rods contained in a capsule filled with the coolant water were subjected to a pulse irradiation in the NSRR to simulate a prompt power surge in an RIA. The effects of preirradiation on the transient fission gas release, pellet-cladding mechanical interaction and fuel failure were clearly observed through the transient in-core measurements and postirradiation examination.

  11. Quantum mechanics allows setting initial conditions at a cosmological singularity: Gowdy model example

    CERN Document Server

    Cherkas, S L

    2015-01-01

    It is shown, that initial conditions in the quasi-Heisenberg quantization scheme can be set at an initial cosmological singularity per se. This possibility is provided by finiteness of some quantities, namely momentums of the dynamical variables, at a singularity, in spite of infinity of the dynamical variables themselves. The uncertainty principle allows avoiding a necessity to set values of the dynamical variables at singularity, as a wave packet can be expressed through the finite momentums. The issue of a vacuum energy, arising during evolution when the gravitational waves appear, is addressed as well. It is shown that, in the certain gauge, the equations of motion contain a difference of kinetic and potential energies of the field oscillators. Thus, in this gauge, the leading divergent parts of the vacuum energy in the equations of motion cancel each other. It is conjectured that the UV cut-off allows physical interpretation of the weakly divergent part of the vacuum energy.

  12. An experimental seasonal hydrological forecasting system over the Yellow River basin - Part 1: Understanding the role of initial hydrological conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Xing; Ma, Feng; Wang, Linying; Zheng, Ziyan; Ma, Zhuguo; Ye, Aizhong; Peng, Shaoming

    2016-06-01

    The hydrological cycle over the Yellow River has been altered by the climate change and human interventions greatly during past decades, with a decadal drying trend mixed with a large variation of seasonal hydrological extremes. To provide support for the adaptation to a changing environment, an experimental seasonal hydrological forecasting system is established over the Yellow River basin. The system draws from a legacy of a global hydrological forecasting system that is able to make use of real-time seasonal climate predictions from North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME) climate models through a statistical downscaling approach but with a higher resolution and a spatially disaggregated calibration procedure that is based on a newly compiled hydrological observation dataset with 5 decades of naturalized streamflow at 12 mainstream gauges and a newly released meteorological observation dataset including 324 meteorological stations over the Yellow River basin. While the evaluation of the NMME-based seasonal hydrological forecasting will be presented in a companion paper to explore the added values from climate forecast models, this paper investigates the role of initial hydrological conditions (ICs) by carrying out 6-month Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) and reverse ESP-type simulations for each calendar month during 1982-2010 with the hydrological models in the forecasting system, i.e., a large-scale land surface hydrological model and a global routing model that is regionalized over the Yellow River. In terms of streamflow predictability, the ICs outweigh the meteorological forcings up to 2-5 months during the cold and dry seasons, but the latter prevails over the former in the predictability after the first month during the warm and wet seasons. For the streamflow forecasts initialized at the end of the rainy season, the influence of ICs for lower reaches of the Yellow River can be 5 months longer than that for the upper reaches, while such a difference

  13. The Role of Model and Initial Condition Error in Numerical Weather Forecasting Investigated with an Observing System Simulation Experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prive, Nikki C.; Errico, Ronald M.

    2013-01-01

    A series of experiments that explore the roles of model and initial condition error in numerical weather prediction are performed using an observing system simulation experiment (OSSE) framework developed at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (NASA/GMAO). The use of an OSSE allows the analysis and forecast errors to be explicitly calculated, and different hypothetical observing networks can be tested with ease. In these experiments, both a full global OSSE framework and an 'identical twin' OSSE setup are utilized to compare the behavior of the data assimilation system and evolution of forecast skill with and without model error. The initial condition error is manipulated by varying the distribution and quality of the observing network and the magnitude of observation errors. The results show that model error has a strong impact on both the quality of the analysis field and the evolution of forecast skill, including both systematic and unsystematic model error components. With a realistic observing network, the analysis state retains a significant quantity of error due to systematic model error. If errors of the analysis state are minimized, model error acts to rapidly degrade forecast skill during the first 24-48 hours of forward integration. In the presence of model error, the impact of observation errors on forecast skill is small, but in the absence of model error, observation errors cause a substantial degradation of the skill of medium range forecasts.

  14. Theoretical predictions of arsenic and selenium species under atmospheric conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Monahan-Pendergast, M.T.; Przybylek, M.; Lindblad, M.; Wilcox, J. [Worcester Polytechnic Institute, Worcester, MA (United States). Dept. of Chemical Engineering

    2008-03-15

    Thermochemical properties of arsenic and selenium species thought to be released into the atmosphere during the coal combustion were examined using ab initio methods. At various levels of theory, calculated geometries and vibrational frequencies of the species were compared with experimental data, where available. Through a comparison of equilibrium constants for a series of gaseous arsenic and selenium oxidation reactions involving OH and HO{sub 2}, five thermodynamically favored reactions were found. In addition, it was determined that all favored reactions were more likely to go to completion tinder tropospheric, rather than stratospheric, conditions.

  15. Earlier age of smoking initiation may not predict heavier cigarette consumption in later adolescence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morrell, Holly E R; Song, Anna V; Halpern-Felsher, Bonnie L

    2011-09-01

    Previous studies suggest that earlier cigarette smoking initiation in adolescence predicts greater cigarette consumption later in adolescence or adulthood. Results from these studies have been used to inform interventions for adolescent smoking. However, previous studies suffer from several important methodological limitations. The objective of the present study was to address these limitations by longitudinally and prospectively examining whether and how age of initiation of smoking among adolescents predicts cigarette consumption by age 16 or 17. Participants completed an in-class survey every 6 months for 2-3 school years. Participants included 395 adolescents (Mean age=14 years at baseline; 53.2% female) from two public high schools in Northern California (Schools A and B) who completed self-report measures of smoking initiation, number of friends who smoke, and number of whole cigarettes smoked by the final survey time point. Adolescents who were older when they first smoked one whole cigarette were 5.3 to 14.6 times more likely in School A and 2.9 to 4.3 times more likely in School B to have smoked a greater number of cigarettes by age 16 or 17. Results suggested that earlier smoking initiation may not lead to heavier cigarette consumption later in time, as has been previously shown. There may be a period of heightened vulnerability in mid- or late adolescence where smoking experimentation is more likely to lead to greater cigarette consumption. Targeting prevention efforts to adolescents aged 14 to 17 years may further reduce smoking initiation among youth, thus limiting subsequent smoking-related morbidity and mortality in adulthood.

  16. D mesons in non-central heavy-ion collisions: Fluctuating vs. averaged initial conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nahrgang, Marlene, E-mail: marlene.nahrgang@phy.duke.edu [Department of Physics, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708-0305 (United States); Frankfurt Institute for Advanced Studies (FIAS), Ruth-Moufang-Str. 1, 60438 Frankfurt am Main (Germany); Aichelin, Jörg; Gossiaux, Pol Bernard; Werner, Klaus [SUBATECH, UMR 6457, Université de Nantes, Ecole des Mines de Nantes, IN2P3/CNRS, 4 rue Alfred Kastler, 44307 Nantes cedex 3 (France)

    2014-12-15

    The suppression of D mesons in non-central heavy-ion collisions is investigated. The anisotropy in collisions at finite impact parameter leads to an ordering of all-angle, in- and out-of-plane nuclear modification factors due to the different in-medium path lengths. Within our MC@sHQ+EPOS model of heavy-quark propagation in the QGP we demonstrate that fluctuating initial conditions lead to an effective reduction of the energy loss of heavy quarks, which is seen in a larger nuclear modification factor at intermediate and high transverse momenta. The elliptic flow at small transverse momenta is reduced.

  17. RAPID OPTIMAL SPH PARTICLE DISTRIBUTIONS IN SPHERICAL GEOMETRIES FOR CREATING ASTROPHYSICAL INITIAL CONDITIONS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Raskin, Cody; Owen, J. Michael [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, P.O. Box 808, L-038, Livermore, CA 94550 (United States)

    2016-04-01

    Creating spherical initial conditions in smoothed particle hydrodynamics simulations that are spherically conformal is a difficult task. Here, we describe two algorithmic methods for evenly distributing points on surfaces that when paired can be used to build three-dimensional spherical objects with optimal equipartition of volume between particles, commensurate with an arbitrary radial density function. We demonstrate the efficacy of our method against stretched lattice arrangements on the metrics of hydrodynamic stability, spherical conformity, and the harmonic power distribution of gravitational settling oscillations. We further demonstrate how our method is highly optimized for simulating multi-material spheres, such as planets with core–mantle boundaries.

  18. The circulation of dust in protoplanetary discs and the initial conditions of planet formation

    CERN Document Server

    Hansen, Bradley M S

    2014-01-01

    We examine the consequences of a model for the circulation of solids in a protoplanetary nebula in which aerodynamic drag is counterbalanced by the recycling of material to the outer disc by a protostellar outflow or a disc wind. This population of circulating dust eventually becomes unstable to the formation of planetesimals by gravitational instability, and results in the ultimate deposition of 30--50 earth masses in planetesimals on scales R< 1 AU. Such a model may provide an appropriate justification for the approximately power law initial conditions needed to reproduce observed planetary systems by in situ assembly.

  19. On Positive Solutions of Some System of Reaction-Diffusion Equations with Nonlocal Initial Conditions

    CERN Document Server

    Walker, Christoph

    2010-01-01

    The paper focuses on positive solutions to a coupled system of parabolic equations with nonlocal initial conditions. Such equations arise as steady-state equations in an age-structured predator-prey model with diffusion. By using global bifurcation techniques, we describe the structure of the set of positive solutions with respect to two parameters measuring the intensities of the fertility of the species. In particular, we establish co-existence steady-states, i.e. solutions which are nonnegative and nontrivial in both components.

  20. D mesons in non-central heavy-ion collisions: fluctuating vs. averaged initial conditions

    CERN Document Server

    Nahrgang, Marlene; Gossiaux, Pol Bernard; Werner, Klaus

    2014-01-01

    The suppression of D mesons in non-central heavy-ion collisions is investigated. The anisotropy in collisions at finite impact parameter leads to an ordering of all-angle, in- and out-of-plane nuclear modification factors due to the different in-medium path lengths. Within our MC@sHQ+EPOS model of heavy-quark propagation in the QGP we demonstrate that fluctuating initial conditions lead to an effective reduction of the energy loss of heavy quarks, which is seen in a larger nuclear modification factor at intermediate and high transverse momenta. The elliptic flow at small transverse momenta is reduced.

  1. Chimera states and the interplay between initial conditions and non-local coupling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalle, Peter; Sawicki, Jakub; Zakharova, Anna; Schöll, Eckehard

    2017-03-01

    Chimera states are complex spatio-temporal patterns that consist of coexisting domains of coherent and incoherent dynamics. We study chimera states in a network of non-locally coupled Stuart-Landau oscillators. We investigate the impact of initial conditions in combination with non-local coupling. Based on an analytical argument, we show how the coupling phase and the coupling strength are linked to the occurrence of chimera states, flipped profiles of the mean phase velocity, and the transition from a phase- to an amplitude-mediated chimera state.

  2. Rapid Optimal SPH Particle Distributions in Spherical Geometries For Creating Astrophysical Initial Conditions

    CERN Document Server

    Raskin, Cody

    2016-01-01

    Creating spherical initial conditions in smoothed particle hydrodynamics simulations that are spherically conformal is a difficult task. Here, we describe two algorithmic methods for evenly distributing points on surfaces, that when paired can be used to build 3D spherical objects with optimal equipartition of volume between particles, commensurate with an arbitrary, radial density function. We demonstrate the efficacy of our method against stretched lattice arrangements on the metrics of hydrodynamic stability, spherical conformity, and the harmonic power distribution of gravitational settling oscillations. We further demonstrate how our method is highly optimized for simulating multi-material spheres, such as planets with core-mantle boundaries.

  3. Geomagnetic Secular Variation Prediction with Thermal Heterogeneous Boundary Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuang, Weijia; Tangborn, Andrew; Jiang, Weiyuan

    2011-01-01

    It has long been conjectured that thermal heterogeneity at the core-mantle boundary (CMB) affects the geodynamo substantially. The observed two pairs of steady and strong magnetic flux lobes near the Polar Regions and the low secular variation in the Pacific over the past 400 years (and perhaps longer) are likely the consequences of this CMB thermal heterogeneity. There are several studies on the impact of the thermal heterogeneity with numerical geodynamo simulations. However, direct correlation between the numerical results and the observations is found very difficult, except qualitative comparisons of certain features in the radial component of the magnetic field at the CMB. This makes it difficult to assess accurately the impact of thermal heterogeneity on the geodynamo and the geomagnetic secular variation. We revisit this problem with our MoSST_DAS system in which geomagnetic data are assimilated with our geodynamo model to predict geomagnetic secular variations. In this study, we implement a heterogeneous heat flux across the CMB that is chosen based on the seismic tomography of the lowermost mantle. The amplitude of the heat flux (relative to the mean heat flux across the CMB) varies in the simulation. With these assimilation studies, we will examine the influences of the heterogeneity on the forecast accuracies, e.g. the accuracies as functions of the heterogeneity amplitude. With these, we could be able to assess the model errors to the true core state, and thus the thermal heterogeneity in geodynamo modeling.

  4. Predicting initial client engagement with community mental health services by routinely measured data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roeg, Diana; van de Goor, Ien; Garretsen, Henk

    2015-01-01

    Engagement is a determinant of how well a person will respond to professional input. This study investigates whether, in practice, routinely measured data predict initial client engagement with community mental health services. Engagement, problem severity, client characteristics, and duration before the first contact were measured at team entrance with clients (n = 529) of three community mental health teams. Regression analysis was used to predict engagement. Gender, age, referrer, having children, having a partner, and ethnicity showed a minor relationship with engagement. Higher problem severity measured by the team members with the Health of the Nation Outcome Scales, being referred for having psychiatric problems and/or causing severe and long-lasting trouble (as 'assessed' by the often non-professional referrer), and a longer duration between enrollment and the first conversation with a client, were indicative for a lower engagement. The final model explained 19.2 % of the variance in engagement. It can be concluded that initial client engagement with community mental health services can be predicted, in part, by routinely measured data. The findings can be used by community mental healthcare teams to create an awareness system.

  5. Teachers' Perceptions of Their Working Conditions: How Predictive of Policy-Relevant Outcomes? Working Paper 33

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ladd, Helen F.

    2009-01-01

    This quantitative study uses data from North Carolina to examine the extent to which survey based perceptions of working conditions are predictive of policy-relevant outcomes, independent of other school characteristics such as the demographic mix of the school's students. Working conditions emerge as highly predictive of teachers' stated…

  6. A technique for generating consistent ice sheet initial conditions for coupled ice-sheet/climate models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. G. Fyke

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available A new technique for generating ice sheet preindustrial 1850 initial conditions for coupled ice-sheet/climate models is developed and demonstrated over the Greenland Ice Sheet using the Community Earth System Model (CESM. Paleoclimate end-member simulations and ice core data are used to derive continuous surface mass balance fields which are used to force a long transient ice sheet model simulation. The procedure accounts for the evolution of climate through the last glacial period and converges to a simulated preindustrial 1850 ice sheet that is geometrically and thermodynamically consistent with the 1850 preindustrial simulated CESM state, yet contains a transient memory of past climate that compares well to observations and independent model studies. This allows future coupled ice-sheet/climate projections of climate change that include ice sheets to integrate the effect of past climate conditions on the state of the Greenland Ice Sheet, while maintaining system-wide continuity between past and future climate simulations.

  7. Existence of Mild Solutions for a Semilinear Integrodifferential Equation with Nonlocal Initial Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Lizama

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Using Hausdorff measure of noncompactness and a fixed-point argument we prove the existence of mild solutions for the semilinear integrodifferential equation subject to nonlocal initial conditions u′(t=Au(t+∫0tB(t-su(sds+f(t,u(t, t∈[0,1], u(0=g(u, where A:D(A⊆X→X, and for every t∈[0,1] the maps B(t:D(B(t⊆X→X are linear closed operators defined in a Banach space X. We assume further that D(A⊆D(B(t for every t∈[0,1], and the functions f:[0,1]×X→X and g:C([0,1];X→X are X-valued functions which satisfy appropriate conditions.

  8. Effects of initial soil condition on the effectiveness of biological geotextiles in reducing interrill runoff and erosion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smets, T.; Poesen, J.

    2009-04-01

    The effectiveness of a surface cover material (e.g. geotextiles, rock fragments, mulches, vegetation) in reducing runoff and soil erosion rates is often only assessed by the fraction of the soil surface covered. However, there are indications that soil structure has important effects on the runoff and erosion-reducing effectiveness of the cover materials. This study investigates the impact of initial soil condition (i.e. fine tilth versus sealed soil surface) on the effectiveness of biological geotextiles in increasing infiltration rates and in reducing runoff and interrill erosion rates on a medium and steep slope gradient. Rainfall was simulated during 60 minutes with an intensity of 67 mm h-1 on an interrill erosion plot having two slope gradients (i.e. 15 and 45%) and filled with an erodible sandy loam. Five biological and three simulated geotextiles with different cover percentage were tested on two simulated initial soil conditions (i.e. fine tilth and sealed soil surface). Final infiltration rates on a sealed soil surface (7.5-18.5 mm h-1) are observed after ca. 10 minutes of rainfall compared to ca. 50 minutes of rainfall on an initial seedbed (16.4-56.7 mm h-1). On the two tested slope gradients, significantly (α = 0.05) smaller runoff coefficients (RC) are observed on an initial seedbed (8.2% geotextile cover. However, on an initial sealed soil surface no significant effect of simulated geotextile cover on RC is observed. On a 15% slope gradient, calculated b-values from the mulch factor equation equalled 0.054 for an initial fine tilth and 0.022 for a sealed soil surface, indicating a higher effectiveness of geotextiles in reducing interrill erosion on a fine tilth compared to a sealed soil surface. Therefore, this study demonstrates the importance of applying geotextiles on the soil surface before the surface tilth is sealed due to rainfall. The effect of soil structure on the effectiveness of a surface cover in reducing runoff and interrill erosion

  9. Predictive Models for Photovoltaic Electricity Production in Hot Weather Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jabar H. Yousif

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The process of finding a correct forecast equation for photovoltaic electricity production from renewable sources is an important matter, since knowing the factors affecting the increase in the proportion of renewable energy production and reducing the cost of the product has economic and scientific benefits. This paper proposes a mathematical model for forecasting energy production in photovoltaic (PV panels based on a self-organizing feature map (SOFM model. The proposed model is compared with other models, including the multi-layer perceptron (MLP and support vector machine (SVM models. Moreover, a mathematical model based on a polynomial function for fitting the desired output is proposed. Different practical measurement methods are used to validate the findings of the proposed neural and mathematical models such as mean square error (MSE, mean absolute error (MAE, correlation (R, and coefficient of determination (R2. The proposed SOFM model achieved a final MSE of 0.0007 in the training phase and 0.0005 in the cross-validation phase. In contrast, the SVM model resulted in a small MSE value equal to 0.0058, while the MLP model achieved a final MSE of 0.026 with a correlation coefficient of 0.9989, which indicates a strong relationship between input and output variables. The proposed SOFM model closely fits the desired results based on the R2 value, which is equal to 0.9555. Finally, the comparison results of MAE for the three models show that the SOFM model achieved a best result of 0.36156, whereas the SVM and MLP models yielded 4.53761 and 3.63927, respectively. A small MAE value indicates that the output of the SOFM model closely fits the actual results and predicts the desired output.

  10. Initial Condition Model from Imaginary Part of Action and the Information Loss

    CERN Document Server

    Nielsen, H B

    2009-01-01

    We review slightly a work by Horowitz and Maldecena solving the information loss problem for black holes by having inside the blackhole - near to the singularity - a boundary condition, as e.g the no boundary proposal by Hartle and Hawking. Here we propose to make this boundary condition come out of our imaginary action model (together with Masao Ninomiya). This model naturally begins effectively to set up boundaries - whether it be in future or past! - especially strongly whenever we reach to high energy physics regimes, such as near the black hole singularity, or in Higgs producing machines as LHC or SSC. In such cases one can say our model predicts miracles. The point is that you may say that the information loss problem, unless you solve it in other ways, call for such a violation of time causality as in our imaginary action model!

  11. INITIAL TEST WELL CONDITIONING AT NOPAL I URANIUM DEPOSIT, SIERRA PENA BLANCA, CHIHUAHUA, MEXICO

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    R.D. Oliver; J.C. Dinsmoor; S.J. Goldstein; I. Reyes; R. De La Garza

    2005-07-11

    Three test wells, PB-1, PB-2, and PB-3, were drilled at the Nopal I uranium deposit as part of a natural analogue study to evaluate radionuclide transport processes during March-April 2003. The initial pumping to condition the wells was completed during December 2003. The PB-1 well, drilled immediately adjacent to the Nopal I ore body, was continuously cored to a depth of 250 m, terminating 20 m below the top of the measured water level. The PB-2 and PB-3 wells, which were drilled on opposite sides of PB-1 at a radial distance of approximately 40 to 50 m outside of the remaining projected ore body, were also drilled to about 20 m below the top of the measured water level. Each test well was completed with 4-inch (10.2-cm) diameter PVC casing with a slotted liner below the water table. Initial conditioning of all three wells using a submersible pump at low pump rates [less than 1 gallon (3.8 1) per minute] resulted in measurable draw down and recoveries. The greatest drawdown ({approx}15 m) was observed in PB-2, whereas only minor (<1 m) drawdown occurred in PB-3. For PB-1 and PB-2, the water turbidity decreased as the wells were pumped and the pH values decreased, indicating that the contamination from the drilling fluid was reduced as the wells were conditioned. Test wells PB-1 and PB-2 showed increased inflow after several borehole volumes of fluid were removed, but their inflow rates remained less that the pumping rate. Test well PB-3 showed the smallest drawdown and least change in pH and conductivity during initial pumping and quickest recovery with a rise in measured water level after conditioning. The 195 gallons (750 l) of water pumped from PB-3 during conditioning was discharged through a household sponge. That sponge showed measurable gamma radiation, which decayed to background values in less than 12 hours. Preliminary interpretations include filtration of a radioisotope source with a short half-life or of a radioisotope that volatized as the sponge

  12. Model Predictive Control of Nonlinear Systems: Stability Region and Feasible Initial Control

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xiao-Bing Hu; Wen-Hua Chen

    2007-01-01

    This paper proposes a new method for model predictive control (MPC) of nonlinear systems to calculate stability region and feasible initial control profile/sequence, which are important to the implementations of MPC. Different from many existing methods,this paper distinguishes stability region from conservative terminal region. With global linearization, linear differential inclusion (LDI)and linear matrix inequality (LMI) techniques, a nonlinear system is transformed into a convex set of linear systems, and then the vertices of the set are used off-line to design the controller, to estimate stability region, and also to determine a feasible initial control profile/sequence. The advantages of the proposed method are demonstrated by simulation study.

  13. Breastfeeding initiation in a rural sample: predictive factors and the role of smoking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bailey, Beth A; Wright, Heather N

    2011-02-01

    The study objective was to identify demographic, medical, and health behavior factors that predict breastfeeding initiation in a rural population with low breastfeeding rates. Participants were 2323 women who experienced consecutive deliveries at 2 hospitals, with data obtained through detailed chart review. Only half the women initiated breastfeeding, which was significantly associated with higher levels of education, private insurance, nonsmoking and non-drug-using status, and primiparity, after controlling for confounders. Follow-up analyses revealed that smoking status was the strongest predictor of failure to breastfeed, with nonsmokers nearly twice as likely to breastfeed as smokers and with those who had smoked a pack per day or more the least likely to breastfeed. Findings reveal many factors placing women at risk for not breastfeeding and suggest that intervention efforts should encourage a combination of smoking cessation and breastfeeding while emphasizing that breastfeeding is not contraindicated even if the mother continues to smoke.

  14. The Generalization of Attachment Representations to New Social Situations: Predicting Behavior during Initial Interactions with Strangers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feeney, Brooke C.; Cassidy, Jude; Ramos-Marcuse, Fatima

    2008-01-01

    The idea that attachment representations are generalized to new social situations and guide behavior with unfamiliar others is central to attachment theory. However, research regarding this important theoretical postulate has been lacking in adolescence and adulthood, as most research has focused on establishing the influence of attachment representations on close relationship dynamics. Thus, the goal of this investigation was to examine the extent to which attachment representations are predictive of adolescents’ initial behavior when meeting and interacting with new peers. High school adolescents (N = 135) participated with unfamiliar peers from another school in two social support interactions that were videotaped and coded by independent observers. Results indicated that attachment representations (assessed through interview and self-report measures) were predictive of behaviors exhibited during the discussions. Theoretical implications of results and contributions to existing literature are discussed. PMID:19025297

  15. Initial subjective reward: Single-exposure conditioned place preference to alcohol in mice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Judith E. Grisel

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Most adults consume alcohol with relative impunity, but about 10-20% of users persist (or progress in their consumption, despite mounting and serious repercussions. Identifying at-risk individuals before neuroadaptative changes associated with chronic use become well ingrained is thus a key step in mitigating and preventing the end stage disease and its devastating impacts. Explaining liability has been impeded, in part, by the absence of animal models for assessing initial sensitivity to the drug’s reinforcing properties, an important endophenotype in the trajectory toward excessive drinking. Here we assess the initial rewarding effects of the drug in a novel application of the conditioned place preference paradigm. In contrast to previous studies that have all employed repeated drug administration, we demonstrated a robust preference for a context paired with a single exposure to 1.5g/kg EtOH in male and female subjects of three strains. This model validates an assay of initial sensitivity to the subjective rewarding effects of alcohol, a widely used drug with multifarious impacts on both brain and society, and provides a new tool for theory-driven endophenotypic pharmacogenetic approaches to understanding and treating addiction.

  16. MOCCA code for star cluster simulations - V. Initial globular cluster conditions influence on blue stragglers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hypki, Arkadiusz; Giersz, Mirek

    2017-04-01

    In this paper, we present an analysis of the properties of blue straggler (BS) populations based on MOCCA simulations covering a range of initial globular cluster conditions. We broadly separate the BSs created in our simulations into two distinct types corresponding to their formation mechanism, namely evolutionary BSs formed from binary evolution and dynamical BSs formed from collisions or mergers induced by direct dynamical interactions between stars and binaries. We find that the dominant type of BS strongly depends on the initial semi-major axis distribution. With mostly compact binaries, the number of evolutionary BSs dominates. Conversely, with mostly wide binaries, dynamical BSs dominate. Higher cluster concentrations increase the contribution from dynamical BSs without affecting the numbers of evolutionary BSs, which are thus mostly descended from primordial binaries. We further consider the ratio between the number of BSs in binaries and as single stars (RB/S). Models that prefer compact and wide binaries begin with, respectively, high and low values of the ratio RB/S before converging to a nearly universal value ∼ 0.4. Finally, the initial eccentricity distribution has little to no influence on BS formation.

  17. Initial subjective reward: single-exposure conditioned place preference to alcohol in mice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grisel, Judith E; Beasley, John B; Bertram, Emma C; Decker, Brooke E; Duan, Chunyu A; Etuma, Mahder; Hand, Annie; Locklear, Mallory N; Whitmire, Matthew P

    2014-01-01

    Most adults consume alcohol with relative impunity, but about 10-20% of users persist (or progress) in their consumption, despite mounting and serious repercussions. Identifying at-risk individuals before neuroadaptative changes associated with chronic use become well ingrained is thus a key step in mitigating and preventing the end stage disease and its devastating impacts. Explaining liability has been impeded, in part, by the absence of animal models for assessing initial sensitivity to the drug's reinforcing properties, an important endophenotype in the trajectory toward excessive drinking. Here we assess the initial rewarding effects of the drug in a novel application of the conditioned place preference paradigm. In contrast to previous studies that have all employed repeated drug administration, we demonstrated a robust preference for a context paired with a single exposure to 1.5 g/kg EtOH in male and female subjects of three strains. This model validates an assay of initial sensitivity to the subjective rewarding effects of alcohol, a widely used drug with multifarious impacts on both brain and society, and provides a new tool for theory-driven endophenotypic pharmacogenetic approaches to understanding and treating addiction.

  18. Initial development and gas exchange of Talisia subalbens (Mart. Radlk. under different shading conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernanda Carlota Nery

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Ecophysiological studies under semi-controlled conditions in nurseries and greenhouses are essential to enable the use of native species to recover degraded areas and for commercial planting. Talisia subalbens (Mart Radlk, 'cascudo', is a native fruiting species of the Cerrado on the verge of extinction. The ecophysiological performance of this species was evaluated in nursery conditions under different levels of shading (full sunshine, 30%, 50% and 70%. Initial growth, biomass allocation, gas exchange and chlorophyll content of the plants were analyzed. Full sunshine cultivated plants showed a higher accumulation of total, shoot, and root dry biomass. There was no significant difference in the root/shoot ratio among the treatments. Seedlings cultivated under full sunshine and 30% shading showed higher values for height, basal diameter, and leaf area. Differences in stomata conductance and photosynthesis rate were not observed among the different shading levels. Plants cultivated under 70% of shading had higher contents of chlorophyll a, b, and total. During the initial phase with higher levels of radiation were fundamental for the development of T. subalbens seedlings.

  19. T2 map signal variation predicts symptomatic osteoarthritis progression: data from the Osteoarthritis Initiative

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhong, Haoti; Miller, David J. [The Pennsylvania State University, Department of Electrical Engineering, University Park, PA (United States); Urish, Kenneth L. [Magee Womens Hospital of the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center, The Bone and Joint Center, Pittsburgh, PA (United States); University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine, Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, Pittsburgh, PA (United States)

    2016-07-15

    The aim of this work is to use quantitative magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) to identify patients at risk for symptomatic osteoarthritis (OA) progression. We hypothesized that classification of signal variation on T2 maps might predict symptomatic OA progression. Patients were selected from the Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI), a prospective cohort. Two groups were identified: a symptomatic OA progression group and a control group. At baseline, both groups were asymptomatic (Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Arthritis [WOMAC] pain score total <10) with no radiographic evidence of OA (Kellgren-Lawrence [KL] score ≤ 1). The OA progression group (n = 103) had a change in total WOMAC score greater than 10 by the 3-year follow-up. The control group (n = 79) remained asymptomatic, with a change in total WOMAC score less than 10 at the 3-year follow-up. A classifier was designed to predict OA progression in an independent population based on T2 map cartilage signal variation. The classifier was designed using a nearest neighbor classification based on a Gaussian Mixture Model log-likelihood fit of T2 map cartilage voxel intensities. The use of T2 map signal variation to predict symptomatic OA progression in asymptomatic individuals achieved a specificity of 89.3 %, a sensitivity of 77.2 %, and an overall accuracy rate of 84.2 %. T2 map signal variation can predict symptomatic knee OA progression in asymptomatic individuals, serving as a possible early OA imaging biomarker. (orig.)

  20. Predicting Initial Formation Temperature for Deep Well Engineering with a New Method

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Fuzong Zhou; Yucheng Xiong; Ming Tian

    2015-01-01

    With the progress of science and technology, human beings explore the energy under-ground with thousands of meters. As a thermophysical parameter, initial formation temperature (IFT) plays an essential role in deep well engineering. However, it is not easy to predict the IFT ac-curately before drilling. This work uses a new method to analyze the effect factors of the under-ground temperature field, and assumes an artificial surface to eliminate the disturbance of the hu-man errors and equipment errors on the surface temperature and thermal conductivity. Consider-ing different distributions of the formation thermal conductivity and the rock radiogenic heat pro-duction, an optimized model was established. With this model, the paper predicted the bottom tem-perature of the main hole of the Chinese Continental Scientific Drilling (CCSD) as 132.80 ºC at 4 725 m depth with 0.5% error. When the thermal conduction is dominant in the formation, this simple method can predict the IFT distribution effectively for deep well in the exploration stage. However, it is almost impossible to avoid aquifers in the formation of drilling deep well, an existing drillhole including groundwater is needed to predict for testing the model’s accuracy.

  1. Solution Properties of Linear Descriptor (Singular Matrix Differential Systems of Higher Order with (Non- Consistent Initial Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Athanasios A. Pantelous

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available In some interesting applications in control and system theory, linear descriptor (singular matrix differential equations of higher order with time-invariant coefficients and (non- consistent initial conditions have been used. In this paper, we provide a study for the solution properties of a more general class of the Apostol-Kolodner-type equations with consistent and nonconsistent initial conditions.

  2. Importance of initial buoyancy field on evolution of mantle thermal structure: Implications of surface boundary conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petar Glišović

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Although there has been significant progress in the seismic imaging of mantle heterogeneity, the outstanding issue that remains to be resolved is the unknown distribution of mantle temperature anomalies in the distant geological past that give rise to the present-day anomalies inferred by global tomography models. To address this question, we present 3-D convection models in compressible and self-gravitating mantle initialised by different hypothetical temperature patterns. A notable feature of our forward convection modelling is the use of self-consistent coupling of the motion of surface tectonic plates to the underlying mantle flow, without imposing prescribed surface velocities (i.e., plate-like boundary condition. As an approximation for the surface mechanical conditions before plate tectonics began to operate we employ the no-slip (rigid boundary condition. A rigid boundary condition demonstrates that the initial thermally-dominated structure is preserved, and its geographical location is fixed during the evolution of mantle flow. Considering the impact of different assumed surface boundary conditions (rigid and plate-like on the evolution of thermal heterogeneity in the mantle we suggest that the intrinsic buoyancy of seven superplumes is most-likely resolved in the tomographic images of present-day mantle thermal structure. Our convection simulations with a plate-like boundary condition reveal that the evolution of an initial cold anomaly beneath the Java-Indonesian trench system yields a long-term, stable pattern of thermal heterogeneity in the lowermost mantle that resembles the present-day Large Low Shear Velocity Provinces (LLSVPs, especially below the Pacific. The evolution of subduction zones may be, however, influenced by the mantle-wide flow driven by deeply-rooted and long-lived superplumes since Archean times. These convection models also detect the intrinsic buoyancy of the Perm Anomaly that has been identified as a unique

  3. Assessment of Sea Surface Temperature and Sea Ice Initial Conditions on Coupled Model Forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Intrieri, J. M.; Solomon, A.; Persson, O. P. G.; Capotondi, A.; LaFontaine, F.; Jedlovec, G.

    2016-12-01

    We present weather-scale (0-10 day) sea ice forecast validation and skill results from an experimental coupled ice-ocean-atmosphere model during the fall freeze-up periods for 2015 and 2016. The model is a mesoscale, coupled atmosphere-ice-ocean mixed-layer model, termed RASM-ESRL, that was developed from the larger-scale Regional Arctic System Model (RASM) architecture. The atmospheric component of RASM-ESRL consists of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, the sea-ice component is the Los Alamos CICE model, and the ocean model is POP. Experimental 5-day forecasts were run daily with RASM-ESRL from July through mid-November in 2015 and 2016. Our project focuses on how the modeled sea ice evolution compares to observed physical processes including atmospheric forcing of sea ice movement, melt, and freeze-up through energy fluxes. Model hindcast output is validated against buoy observations, satellite measurements, and concurrent in situ flux observations made from the R/V Sikuliaq in the fall of 2015. Model skill in predicting atmospheric state variables, wind and boundary layer structures, synoptic features, cloud microphysical and ocean properties will be discussed. We will show results of using different initializations of ocean sea surface temperature and sea ice extent and the impacts on sea ice edge prediction.

  4. Runoff sensitivity over Asia: Role of climate variables and initial soil conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Di; Mishra, Ashok K.; Zhang, Ke

    2017-02-01

    We applied statistical and numerical modeling approach to evaluate the sensitivity of runoff (ROF) to climate variables using Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) data and regional climate model (RegCM4). It was observed that ROF is more sensitive to precipitation (P) compared to other analyzed hydroclimatic variables (potential evapotranspiration (PET), 2 m air temperature (T2m), solar radiation (Rn), specific humidity (SSH), and wind speed (U), especially over India, Indochina, and south-north-northeast China semihumid-humid climate transition zones based on the higher correlation coefficient (>0.7) and elasticity (>2). The abnormal positive T2m-ROF observed over Tibetan Plateau region (TP) may be due to its high topography and cold weather regime, while positive PET-ROF over India and north China-southeast Mongolia regions can be attributed to the stronger influence of local land-atmosphere interactions. Soil moisture (SM) reflects high correlation with runoff, especially over the climate transition zones (i.e., India and Indochina-southeast China). The initial wet (dry) soil moisture (SM) anomalies lead to an increase (decrease) of ROF in each season with the hot spots mainly located in middle to high latitudes (spring), TP and northeast (summer and autumn), and Indochina (autumn) regions. Such influence can persist almost 4 months in spring while only about 1 month in autumn during dry and wet conditions. The wet condition has stronger influence at beginning but dissipates quickly, while the dry condition can last longer within the same season. The impact of initial soil temperature anomalies on ROF is weaker than SM, with the only obvious ROF changes located over south China (spring and summer) and north India (autumn).

  5. Do personality traits predict outcome of psychodynamically oriented psychosomatic inpatient treatment beyond initial symptoms?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steinert, Christiane; Klein, Susanne; Leweke, Frank; Leichsenring, Falk

    2015-03-01

    Whether personality characteristics have an impact on treatment outcome is an important question in psychotherapy research. One of the most common approaches for the description of personality is the five-factor model of personality. Only few studies investigated whether patient personality as measured with the NEO-Five-Factor Inventory (NEO-FFI, Costa & McCrae [1992b]. Revised NEO-PI-R and NEO-FFI. Professional manual. Odessa, FL: Psychological Assessment Recources) predicts outcome. Results were inconsistent. Studies reporting personality to be predictive of outcome did not control for baseline symptoms, while studies controlling initial symptoms could not support these findings. We hypothesized that after taking into account baseline symptoms, the NEO-FFI would not predict outcome and tested this in a large sample of inpatients at a psychosomatic clinic. Naturalistic, non-controlled study using patients' data for multiple regression analysis to identify predictors of outcome. Data of 254 inpatients suffering primarily from depressive, anxiety, stress, and somatoform disorders were analysed. Personality was assessed at the beginning of therapy. For psychotherapy outcome, changes in anxiety and depression (Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale; HADS), overall psychopathology (Symptom Checklist-90-R Global Severity Index [GSI]), and interpersonal problems (Inventory of Interpersonal Problems; IIP) were measured. The treatment resulted in significant decreases on all outcome measures corresponding to moderate to large effect sizes (HADS: d = 1.03; GSI: d = 0.90; IIP: d = 0.38). Consistent with our hypothesis, none of the personality domains predicted outcome when baseline symptoms were controlled for. Personality assessment at baseline does not seem to have an added value in the prediction of inpatient psychotherapy outcome beyond initial symptoms. Clinical implications Personality dimensions overlap with symptomatic distress. Rather than serve as predictors of

  6. Photolysis and OH-Initiated oxidation of glycolaldehyde under atmospheric conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magneron, I; Mellouki, A; Le Bras, G; Moortgat, G K; Horowitz, A; Wirtz, K

    2005-05-26

    The photolysis and OH-initiated oxidation of glycolaldehyde (HOCH(2)CHO), which are relevant atmospheric processes, have been investigated under different conditions using complementary methods in three different laboratories. The UV absorption cross sections of glycolaldehyde determined in two of the laboratories are in excellent agreement. The photolysis of glycolaldehyde in air has been investigated in a quartz cell with sunlamps and in the EUPHORE chamber irradiated by sunlight. The mean photolysis rate measured under solar radiation was (1.1 +/- 0.3) x 10(-5) s(-1) corresponding to a mean effective photolysis quantum yield of (1.3 +/- 0.3). The major products detected were HCHO and CO, whereas CH(3)OH was also observed with an initial yield around 10%. Evidence for OH production was found in both experiments using either OH scavenger or OH tracer species. Photolysis of glycolaldehyde was used as the OH source to measure the reaction rate constants of OH with a series of dienes by the relative method and to identify and quantify the oxidation products of the OH-initiated oxidation of 2-propanol. The different experiments suggest that OH is produced by the primary channel: HOCH(2)CHO + hnu --> OH + CH(2)CHO (1). The rate constant of the OH reaction with glycolaldehyde has been measured at 298 K using the relative method: k(glyc) = (1.2 +/- 0.3) x 10(-11) cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1). The product study of the OH-initiated oxidation of glycolaldehyde in air has been performed using both a FEP bag and the EUPHORE chamber. HCHO was observed to be the major product with a primary yield of around 65%. Glyoxal (CHOCHO) was also observed in EUPHORE with a primary yield of (22 +/- 6)%. This yield corresponds to the branching ratio ( approximately 20%) of the H-atom abstraction channel from the CH(2) group in the OH + HOCH(2)CHO reaction, the major channel ( approximately 80%) being the H-atom abstraction from the carbonyl group. The data obtained in this work, especially the

  7. Dynamic analysis of offshore structures with non-zero initial conditions in the frequency domain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Fushun; Lu, Hongchao; Li, Huajun

    2016-03-01

    The state of non-zero conditions is typically treated as fact when considering the dynamic analysis of offshore structures. This article extends a newly proposed method [1] to manage the non-zero initial conditions of offshore structures in the frequency domain, including new studies on original environmental loads reconstruction, response comparisons with the commercial software ANSYS, and a demonstration using an experimental cantilever beam. The original environmental loads, such as waves, currents, and winds, that act on a structure are decomposed into multiple complex exponential components are represented by a series of poles and corresponding residues. Counter to the traditional frequency-domain method, the non-zero initial conditions of offshore structures could be solved in the frequency domain. Compared with reference [1], an improvement reported in this article is that practical issues, including the choice of model order and central-processing-unit (CPU) time consumption, are further studied when applying this new method to offshore structures. To investigate the feasibility of the representation of initial environmental loads by their poles and corresponding residues, a measured random wave force collected from a column experiment at the Lab of Ocean University of China is used, decomposed, reconstructed and then compared with the original wave force; then, a numerical offshore platform is used to study the performance of the proposed method in detail. The numerical results of this study indicate that (1) a short duration of environmental loads are required to obtain their constitutive poles and residues, which implies good computational efficiency; and (2) the proposed method has a similar computational efficiency to traditional methods due to the use of the inverse Fourier transform technique. To better understand the performance, of time consumption and accuracy of the proposed method, the commercial software ANSYS is used to determine responses

  8. Timing of initial arrival at the breeding site predicts age at first reproduction in a long-lived migratory bird.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becker, Peter H; Dittmann, Tobias; Ludwigs, Jan-Dieter; Limmer, Bente; Ludwig, Sonja C; Bauch, Christina; Braasch, Alexander; Wendeln, Helmut

    2008-08-26

    In long-lived vertebrates, individuals generally visit potential breeding areas or populations during one or more seasons before reproducing for the first time. During these years of prospecting, they select a future breeding site, colony, or mate and improve various skills and their physical condition to meet the requirements of reproduction. One precondition of successful reproduction is arrival in time on the breeding grounds. Here, we study the intricate links among the date of initial spring arrival, body mass, sex, and the age of first breeding in the common tern Sterna hirundo, a long-lived migratory colonial seabird. The study is based on a unique, individual-based, long-term dataset of sexed birds, marked with transponders, which allow recording their individual arrival, overall attendance, and clutch initiation remotely and automatically year by year over the entire lifetime at the natal colony site. We show that the seasonal date of initial arrival at the breeding grounds predicts the individual age at first reproduction, which mostly occurs years later. Late first-time arrivals remain delayed birds throughout subsequent years. Our findings reveal that timing of arrival at the site of reproduction and timing of reproduction itself are coherent parameters of individual quality, which are linked with the prospects of the breeding career and may have consequences for fitness.

  9. On the robustness of near term climate predictability regarding initial state uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Germe, Agathe; Sévellec, Florian; Mignot, Juliette; Swingedouw, Didier; Nguyen, Sebastien

    2017-01-01

    A set of four ensemble simulations has been designed to assess the relative importance of atmospheric, oceanic, and deep ocean initial state uncertainties, as represented by spatial white noise perturbations, on seasonal to decadal prediction skills in a perfect model framework. It is found that a perturbation mimicking random oceanic uncertainties have the same impact as an atmospheric-only perturbation on the future evolution of the ensemble after the first 3 months, even if they are initially only located in the deep ocean. This is due to the fast (1 month) perturbation of the atmospheric component regardless of the initial ensemble generation strategy. The divergence of the ensemble upper-ocean characteristics is then mainly induced by ocean-atmosphere interactions. While the seasonally varying mixed layer depth allows the penetration of the different signals in the thermocline in the mid-high latitudes, the rapid adjustment of the thermocline to wind anomalies followed by Kelvin and Rossby waves adjustment dominates the growth of the ensemble spread in the tropics. These mechanisms result in similar ensemble distribution characteristics for the four ensembles design strategy at the interannual timescale.

  10. Unleashed numerical daemons in our pub: Is poor numerical implementation of hydrologic models hurting the Predictions in Ungauged Basins initiative?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Martyn; Kavetski, Dmitri

    2010-05-01

    Much of the research in the PUB initiative is focused on the analysis and interpretation of model results in well instrumented watersheds, in order to inform appropriate model structures and parameter values for use in ungauged basins. However, many of the models used in PUB share a common characteristic: poor numerical implementation. It is likely that many published conclusions, including (i) parameter sensitivity, optima and uncertainty estimates, and, more disconcertingly, (ii) the interpretation of hydrologic model output to gain insights into internal catchment dynamics, including the relative significance and behavior of different processes, may be questionable due to numerical artifacts introduced by unreliable time stepping schemes. Such lack of attention to numerical schemes has almost certainly hindered progress in the PUB initiative. Here, we comprehensively evaluate several classes of time stepping schemes in terms of numerical fidelity, computational efficiency, and impact on model sensitivity analysis, calibration and prediction. Extensive numerical experiments are carried out using 8 distinct time stepping algorithms and 6 different conceptual hydrological models, applied in the densely gauged experimental Mahurangi catchment as well as in 12 MOPEX basins with diverse physical characteristics and hydroclimatic regimes. Results show that numerical errors of uncontrolled time stepping schemes, which remain widely used in hydrology, routinely dwarf the structural errors of the model conceptualization. This has serious implications for model analysis and predictive use, including inconsistent inferences of parameters and internal states even if the calibrated streamflow predictions are similar. Even when numerical errors allow "getting the right result for the wrong reason", they make the model unduly fragile in predictive mode, as evidenced in validation tests. The extensive analyses in this paper indicate that these deformations are not rare isolated

  11. The DOE Accelerated Strategic Computing Initiative: Challenges and opportunities for predictive materials simulation capabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mailhiot, Christian

    1998-05-01

    In response to the unprecedented national security challenges emerging from the end of nuclear testing, the Defense Programs of the Department of Energy has developed a long-term strategic plan based on a vigorous Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship (SBSS) program. The main objective of the SBSS program is to ensure confidence in the performance, safety, and reliability of the stockpile on the basis of a fundamental science-based approach. A central element of this approach is the development of predictive, ‘full-physics’, full-scale computer simulation tools. As a critical component of the SBSS program, the Accelerated Strategic Computing Initiative (ASCI) was established to provide the required advances in computer platforms and to enable predictive, physics-based simulation capabilities. In order to achieve the ASCI goals, fundamental problems in the fields of computer and physical sciences of great significance to the entire scientific community must be successfully solved. Foremost among the key elements needed to develop predictive simulation capabilities, the development of improved physics-based materials models is a cornerstone. We indicate some of the materials theory, modeling, and simulation challenges and illustrate how the ASCI program will enable both the hardware and the software tools necessary to advance the state-of-the-art in the field of computational condensed matter and materials physics.

  12. Sensitivity of modelled channel network formation to environmental conditions and initial bathymetry

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Maanen, Barend; Coco, Giovanni; Bryan, Karin

    2010-05-01

    Estuaries show a variety of distinctive geomorphic features that reflect differences in environmental conditions, such as geological constraints, hydrodynamic forcing (e.g. tidal range, wave climate), sediment loads from the catchment, and the presence and types of both vegetation and benthic organisms. These differences yield varying patterns of sediment erosion/deposition and consequently determine the current shape of the estuary and its future evolution. Understanding how estuarine systems evolve as a function of both natural and anthropogenic drivers is still a main research topic in coastal science. Both the short- and long-term evolution of estuaries are affected by the dynamics related to tidal channel networks. Channel networks often exhibit complex morphological patterns and their initial formation is not entirely understood. Also, the subsequent evolution of channel networks can be accompanied by the development of tidal flats which provide ecologically important habitats. Despite their importance, observations of channel network formation involve large spatial and temporal scales so that detailed studies have rarely been reported. Recently, modelling approaches have been developed to study the long-term evolution of tidal basins and the associated formation of channel patterns. A model has been developed to simulate the formation of channel networks and tidal flats as a result of the interactions between hydrodynamics, sediment transport, and bed elevation change. Simulations were undertaken using idealised initial bathymetries. Flow velocities are computed using an open source numerical model (ELCOM; Estuary and Lake Computer Model) that solves the unsteady Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations for incompressible flow using the hydrostatic assumption. The computed flow velocities drive sediment transport, which is calculated using formulas widely adopted in sediment transport studies. Gradients in sediment transport rate yield morphological change

  13. The Mechanical Response of Advanced Claddings during Proposed Reactivity Initiated Accident Conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cinbiz, Mahmut N [ORNL; Brown, Nicholas R [ORNL; Terrani, Kurt A [ORNL; Lowden, Rick R [ORNL; ERDMAN III, DONALD L [ORNL

    2017-01-01

    This study investigates the failure mechanisms of advanced nuclear fuel cladding of FeCrAl at high-strain rates, similar to design basis reactivity initiated accidents (RIA). During RIA, the nuclear fuel cladding was subjected to the plane-strain to equibiaxial tension strain states. To achieve those accident conditions, the samples were deformed by the expansion of high strength Inconel alloy tube under pre-specified pressure pulses as occurring RIA. The mechanical response of the advanced claddings was compared to that of hydrided zirconium-based nuclear fuel cladding alloy. The hoop strain evolution during pressure pulses were collected in situ; the permanent diametral strains of both accident tolerant fuel (ATF) claddings and the current nuclear fuel alloys were determined after rupture.

  14. Jet tomography of harmonic fluctuations in the initial condition of heavy ion collisions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang Xilin [Physics Department and Center for Exploration of Energy and Matter, Indiana University, 2401 N Milo B. Sampson Lane, Bloomington, IN 47408 (United States); Liao Jinfeng, E-mail: liaoji@indiana.edu [Physics Department and Center for Exploration of Energy and Matter, Indiana University, 2401 N Milo B. Sampson Lane, Bloomington, IN 47408 (United States); RIKEN BNL Research Center, Bldg. 510A, Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, NY 11973 (United States)

    2012-06-18

    In this Letter we study the jet response (particularly azimuthal anisotropy) as a hard probe of the harmonic fluctuations in the initial condition of central heavy ion collisions. By implementing the fluctuations via cumulant expansion for various harmonics quantified by {epsilon}{sub n} and using the geometric model for jet energy loss, we compute the response {chi}{sub n}{sup h}=v{sub n}/{epsilon}{sub n}. Combining these results with the known hydrodynamic response of the bulk matter expansion in the literature, we show that the hard-soft azimuthal correlation arising from their respective responses to the common geometric fluctuations reveals a robust and narrow near-side peak that may provide the dominant contribution to the 'hard-ridge' observed in experimental data.

  15. Current Fluctuations of the One Dimensional Symmetric Simple Exclusion Process with Step Initial Condition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Derrida, Bernard; Gerschenfeld, Antoine

    2009-07-01

    For the symmetric simple exclusion process on an infinite line, we calculate exactly the fluctuations of the integrated current Q t during time t through the origin when, in the initial condition, the sites are occupied with density ρ a on the negative axis and with density ρ b on the positive axis. All the cumulants of Q t grow like sqrt{t} . In the range where Qt˜ sqrt{t} , the decay exp [- Q {/t 3}/ t] of the distribution of Q t is non-Gaussian. Our results are obtained using the Bethe ansatz and several identities derived recently by Tracy and Widom for exclusion processes on the infinite line.

  16. Testing variational estimation of process parameters and initial conditions of an earth system model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simon Blessing

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available We present a variational assimilation system around a coarse resolution Earth System Model (ESM and apply it for estimating initial conditions and parameters of the model. The system is based on derivative information that is efficiently provided by the ESM's adjoint, which has been generated through automatic differentiation of the model's source code. In our variational approach, the length of the feasible assimilation window is limited by the size of the domain in control space over which the approximation by the derivative is valid. This validity domain is reduced by non-smooth process representations. We show that in this respect the ocean component is less critical than the atmospheric component. We demonstrate how the feasible assimilation window can be extended to several weeks by modifying the implementation of specific process representations and by switching off processes such as precipitation.

  17. Non-adiabatic radiative collapse of a relativistic star under different initial conditions

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Ranjan Sharma; Ramesh Tikekar

    2012-09-01

    We examine the role of space-time geometry in the non-adiabatic collapse of a star dissipating energy in the form of radial heat flow, studying its evolution under different initial conditions. The collapse of a star filled with a homogeneous perfect fluid is compared with that of a star filled with inhomogeneous imperfect fluid under anisotropic pressure. Both the configurations are spherically symmetric. However, in the latter case, the physical space = constant of the configurations endowed with spheroidal or pseudospheroidal geometry is assumed to be inhomogeneous. It is observed that as long as the collapse is shear-free, its evolution depends only on the mass and size of the star at the onset of collapse.

  18. A simple method to calculate first-passage time densities with arbitrary initial conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nyberg, Markus; Ambjörnsson, Tobias; Lizana, Ludvig

    2016-06-01

    Numerous applications all the way from biology and physics to economics depend on the density of first crossings over a boundary. Motivated by the lack of general purpose analytical tools for computing first-passage time densities (FPTDs) for complex problems, we propose a new simple method based on the independent interval approximation (IIA). We generalise previous formulations of the IIA to include arbitrary initial conditions as well as to deal with discrete time and non-smooth continuous time processes. We derive a closed form expression for the FPTD in z and Laplace-transform space to a boundary in one dimension. Two classes of problems are analysed in detail: discrete time symmetric random walks (Markovian) and continuous time Gaussian stationary processes (Markovian and non-Markovian). Our results are in good agreement with Langevin dynamics simulations.

  19. Failure behavior of plutonium-uranium mixed oxide fuel under reactivity-initiated accident condition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abe, T.; Nakae, N.; Kodato, K.; Matsumoto, M.; Inabe, T.

    1992-06-01

    Two series of in-pile tests on MOX fuels were performed in the NSRR to study failure behavior under RIA (reactivity-initiated accident) conditions in water cooled reactors. PWR type MOX test rods were pulsed in a first series. The test rods were designed to have dimensions identical to standard UO 2 fuel, on which a large number of tests had been conducted previously. The test result was that the failure mechanism and the threshold of MOX fuel was consistent with those of UO 2 fuel. ATR-type MOX test rods with PuO 2 particles as well as reference rods without PuO 2 particles were subjected to pulsing in a second series. PuO 2 particles of 400 and 1100 μm in diameter were artificially embedded at the surface of MOX pellets. No effect of particles appeared on the threshold, and no significant indication of their effect was observed on the cladding.

  20. On the initial condition problem of the time domain PMCHWT surface integral equation

    KAUST Repository

    Uysal, Ismail E.

    2017-05-13

    Non-physical, linearly increasing and constant current components are induced in marching on-in-time solution of time domain surface integral equations when initial conditions on time derivatives of (unknown) equivalent currents are not enforced properly. This problem can be remedied by solving the time integral of the surface integral for auxiliary currents that are defined to be the time derivatives of the equivalent currents. Then the equivalent currents are obtained by numerically differentiating the auxiliary ones. In this work, this approach is applied to the marching on-in-time solution of the time domain Poggio-Miller-Chan-Harrington-Wu-Tsai surface integral equation enforced on dispersive/plasmonic scatterers. Accuracy of the proposed method is demonstrated by a numerical example.

  1. Initial Condition of Relic Gravitational Waves Constrained by LIGO S6 and Multiple Interferometers

    CERN Document Server

    Chen, Jie-Wen; Zhao, Wen; Tong, Ming-Lei

    2014-01-01

    The relic gravitational wave (RGW) generated during the inflation depends on the initial condition via the amplitude, the spectral index $n_t$ and the running index $\\alpha_t$. CMB observations so far have only constrained the tensor-scalar ratio $r$, but not $n_t$ nor $\\alpha_t$. Complementary to this, the ground-based interferometric detectors working at $\\sim 10^2$Hz are able to constrain the spectral indices that influence the spectrum sensitively at high frequencies. In this work we give a proper normalization of the analytical spectrum at the low frequency end, yielding a modification by a factor of $\\sim 1/50$ to the previous treatment. We calculate the signal-noise ratios (SNR) for various ($n_t,\\alpha_t$) at fixed $r=0.2$ by S6 of LIGO H-L, and obtain the observational upper limit on the running index $\\alpha_t0.01364$.

  2. Sensitivity of Initial Conditions on Diurnal Variability of Indian Summer Monsoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, Sukanta Kumar; Deb, Sanjib Kumar; Kishtawal, C. M.; Pal, Pradip Kumar

    2015-10-01

    The diurnal cycle of different surface parameters, viz. surface air temperature, surface pressure, and rain intensities, simulated by the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) in the operational seasonal forecast of ISM-2012 using initial conditions (ICs) taken at synoptic hours of the day has been examined and compared with observations. Four members were simulated with ICs at 0000, 0600, 1200, and 1800 UTC on 1 August 2012. The impact of the initial conditions at the synoptic hours of the day was more visible over the landmass compared with the oceanic regions. The diurnal variation of the surface temperature in the model simulation showed the major features when compared with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis except for the warm pool of northwest India and the Tibetan region. The surface pressure in the ECMWF reanalysis showed the semidiurnal cycle with two peaks at 0600 UTC and 1800 UTC; however, the range of the cycle was underestimated by the model simulation, showing only one peak at 0600 UTC. Significant variations in the diurnal cycle of rain intensities were seen among the different members. The model captured the diurnal cycle as the positive and negative peaks at 1200 and 0000 UTC with intensities at the peaks ~0.5 mm high and low, respectively, in the model simulation when compared with the observations. Presently, the seasonal forecast of ISM is generated through ensemble CAM experiments using different ICs taken from different dates but all at 0000 UTC. Consideration of ICs at different times of the day will add different ranges of diurnal variations in all the surface parameters within the family of ensemble members and also increase the number of members in the family. Indeed, these improve the ensemble processes in generating the seasonal forecast of ISM.

  3. INITIAL CHEMICAL AND RESERVOIR CONDITIONS AT LOS AZUFRES WELLHEAD POWER PLANT STARTUP

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kruger, P.; Semprini, L.; Verma, S.; Barragan, R.; Molinar, R.; Aragon, A.; Ortiz, J.; Miranda, C.

    1985-01-22

    One of the major concerns of electric utilities in installing geothermal power plants is not only the longevity of the steam supply, but also the potential for changes in thermodynamic properties of the resource that might reduce the conversion efficiency of the design plant equipment. Production was initiated at Los Azufres geothermal field with wellhead generators not only to obtain electric energy at a relatively early date, but also to acquire needed information about the resource so that plans for large central power plants could be finalized. Commercial electric energy production started at Los Azufres during the summer of 1982 with five 5-MWe wellhead turbine-generator units. The wells associated with these units had undergone extensive testing and have since been essentially in constant production. The Los Azufres geothermal reservoir is a complex structural and thermodynamic system, intersected by at least 4 major parallel faults and producing geothermal fluids from almost all water to all steam. The five wellhead generators are associated with wells of about 30%, 60%, and 100% steam fraction. A study to compile existing data on the chemical and reservoir conditions during the first two years of operation has been completed. Data have been compiled on mean values of wellhead and separator pressures, steam and liquid flowrates, steam fraction, enthalpy, and pertinent chemical components. The compilation serves both as a database of conditions during the start-up period and as an initial point to observe changes with continued and increased production. Current plans are to add additional wellhead generators in about two years followed by central power plants when the data have been sufficiently evaluated for optimum plant design. During the next two years, the data acquired at the five 5-MWe wellhead generator units can be compared to this database to observe any significant changes in reservoir behavior at constant production.

  4. RECREATION MONITORING OF RESOURCE CONDITIONS IN THE KRONOTSKY STATE NATURAL BIOSPHERE PRESERVE (KAMCHATKA: AN INITIAL ASSESSMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Zavadskaya

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper describes assessment and monitoring program which has been designed and initiated for monitoring recreational impacts in some wildernesses areas of Kamchatka. The framework of the recreational assessment was tested through its application in a case study conducted during the summer 2008 in the Kronotsky State Natural Biosphere Preserve (the Kamchatka peninsula, Russia. The overall objective of the case study was to assess the existing campsite and trail recreation impacts and to establish a network of key sites for the subsequent long-term impact monitoring. The detailed assessment of different components of natural complexes of the Kronotsky State Natural Preserve and the obtained maps of their ecological conditions showed that some sites had been highly disturbed. The results of these works have given rise to a concern that the intensive use of these areas would make an unacceptable impact on the nature. Findings of our initial work corroborate the importance of founding wilderness management programs on knowledge about the trail and campsite impacts and emphasize the necessity of adopting the recreational assessment and monitoring framework to the practice of decision-making.

  5. The effects of sinusoidal initial conditions on finite-thickness, HED shear flows

    Science.gov (United States)

    di Stefano, Carlos; Merritt, Elizabeth; Doss, Forrest; Desjardins, Tiffany; Flippo, Kirk; Kline, John; Loomis, Eric; Rasmus, Alex

    2016-10-01

    Hydrodynamic shear instability plays a role in any system in which shear flow across materials can be found, including in high-energy-density examples such as fusion plasmas and many astrophysical systems. In this work we describe experiments, performed on the OMEGA laser, exploring shear instability through the use of carefully-controlled, single-mode initial conditions. A novel aspect of these experiments is that they employ counter-propagating shocks separated by a collimating layer. This produces a region of shear flow in which the pressure is balanced across flow, simplifying theoretical analysis and modeling. We discuss two interesting behaviors seen in these experiments. First, at early times, radiographs show the expansion of the collimator and the spectral evolution of the initial perturbation features from laser-drive heating of the material. The evolved features then couple to the primary shear instability we seek to probe. Second, at late times, we observe the persistence of a coherent long-wavelength mode in the mixing layer, driven by the imposed surface perturbation, which resonates with and the length scale introduced by the finite thickness of the collimator.

  6. Formation of the First Low-Mass Stars from Cosmological Initial Conditions

    CERN Document Server

    Safranek-Shrader, Chalence; Bromm, Volker

    2014-01-01

    We simulate the formation of a metal-poor ($10^{-2}\\,Z_{\\odot}$) stellar cluster in one of the first galaxies to form in the early Universe, specifically a high-redshift atomic cooling halo ($z\\sim14$). This is the first calculation that resolves the formation of individual metal-enriched stars in simulations starting from realistic cosmological initial conditions. We follow the evolution of a single dense clump among several in the parent halo. The clump forms a cluster of $\\sim40$ stars and sub-stellar objects within $7000$ yrs and could continue forming stars $\\sim5$ times longer. Protostellar dust heating has a negligible effect on the star formation efficiency, at least during the early evolutionary stages, but it moderately suppresses gaseous fragmentation and brown dwarf formation. We observe fragmentation in thin gaseous filaments and sustained accretion in larger, rotating structures as well as ejections by binary interactions. The stellar initial mass function above $0.1\\,M_{\\odot}$, evaluated after...

  7. Influence of the initial state of carbon nanotubes on their colloidal stability under natural conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schwyzer, Irene [Empa - Swiss Federal Laboratories for Materials Science and Technology, CH-9014 St. Gallen (Switzerland); Eawag - Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology, CH-8600 Duebendorf (Switzerland); Kaegi, Ralf; Sigg, Laura [Eawag - Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology, CH-8600 Duebendorf (Switzerland); Magrez, Arnaud [EPFL - Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne, CH-1015 Lausanne (Switzerland); Nowack, Bernd, E-mail: nowack@empa.ch [Empa - Swiss Federal Laboratories for Materials Science and Technology, CH-9014 St. Gallen (Switzerland)

    2011-06-15

    The colloidal stability of dry and suspended carbon nanotubes (CNTs) in the presence of amphiphilic compounds (i.e. natural organic matter or surfactants) at environmentally realistic concentrations was investigated over several days. The suspensions were analyzed for CNT concentration (UV-vis spectroscopy), particle size (nanoparticle tracking analysis), and CNT length and dispersion quality (TEM). When added in dry form, around 1% of the added CNTs remained suspended. Pre-dispersion in organic solvent or anionic detergent stabilized up to 65% of the added CNTs after 20 days of mild shaking and 5 days of settling. The initial state of the CNTs (dry vs. suspended) and the medium composition hence are critical determinants for the partitioning of CNTs between sediment and the water column. TEM analysis revealed that single suspended CNTs were present in all suspensions and that shaking and settling resulted in a fractionation of the CNTs with shorter CNTs remaining predominantly in suspension. - Highlights: > Individually suspended CNTs are present under environment relevant conditions. > The number of suspended CNTs varies depending on the medium composition. > Surfactants at environmental concentrations have no suspending effect on dry CNTs. > Pre-dispersed CNTs are more stable in suspension than dry CNTs. - The colloidal stability of CNTs varies a lot depending on the initial state of the CNTs (dry vs. pre-dispersed), the applied dispersant for pre-suspension, and the composition of the medium.

  8. Origami constraints on the initial-conditions arrangement of dark-matter caustics and streams

    CERN Document Server

    Neyrinck, Mark C

    2012-01-01

    In a cold-dark-matter universe, cosmological structure formation proceeds in rough analogy to origami folding. Dark matter occupies a three-dimensional 'sheet,' non-intersecting in six-dimensional velocity-position phase space. At early times, the sheet was flat like an origami sheet, i.e. velocities were essentially zero. The present paper further illustrates this analogy, and identifies a result of origami mathematics that applies to cosmology. We define caustics in the initial conditions Lagrangian space) as surfaces in this sheet, along which the sheet has folded. The regions outlined by these caustics, which we call streams, may be colored according to the two possible orientations of initial basis vectors, a two-coloring such that adjacent streams are not colored the same. While this may not have clear observational consequences, it is a severe restriction on connectivity, since there are no bounds on the number of colors required to color a general arrangement of three-dimensional regions. Then, measur...

  9. Simulating the formation of molecular clouds. I. Slow formation by gravitational collapse from static initial conditions

    CERN Document Server

    Glover, S C O

    2006-01-01

    We study the formation of H2 in the ISM, using a modified version of the astrophysical magnetohydrodynamical code ZEUS-MP that includes a non-equilibrium treatment of the formation and destruction of H2. We use a local approximation to compute the shielding of H2 against photodissociation, making three-dimensional high-resolution simulations of cloud formation feasible with modest computational resources. Our modification to ZEUS-MP also includes a detailed treatment of the thermal behaviour of the gas. In this paper, we focus on the problem of molecular cloud formation in gravitationally unstable, initially static gas. (In a subsequent paper, we consider turbulent flow). We show that in these conditions, H2 formation is driven by gravitational collapse, and so occurs over one or more gravitational free-fall timescales. For initial densities consistent with those observed in the cold, neutral atomic phase of the interstellar medium, this corresponds to a cloud formation timescale t > 10 Myr. We also show that...

  10. The Impact of Sea-Surface Winds on Meteorological Conditions in Israel: An Initial Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otterman, J.; Saaroni, H.; Atlas, R.; Ardizzone, J.; Ben-Dor, E.; Druyan, L.; Jusem, C. J.; Karnieli, A.; Terry, J.

    2000-01-01

    The SSM/I (Spectral Sensor Microwave Imager) dataset is used to monitor surface wind speed and direction at four locations over the Eastern Mediterranean during December 1998 - January 1999. Time series of these data are compared to concurrent series of precipitation, surface temperature, humidity and winds at selected Israeli stations: Sde Dov (coastal), Bet Dagan (5 km. inland), Jerusalem (Judean Hills), Hafetz Haim (3 km. inland) and Sde Boker (central Negev). December 1998 and the beginning of January 1999 were dry in Israel, but significant precipitation was recorded at many stations during the second half of January (1999). SSM/I data show a surge in westerly surface winds west of Israel (32 N, 32.5 E) on 15 January, coinciding with the renewal of precipitation. We discuss the relevant circulation and pressure patterns during this transition in the context of the evolving meteorological conditions at the selected Israeli locations. The SSM/I dataset of near ocean surface winds, available for the last 12 years, is described. We analyze lagged correlation between these data and the Israeli station data and investigate possibility of predictive skill. Application of such relationships to short-term weather prediction would require real-time access to the SSM/I observations.

  11. Glasgow coma score and tumor necrosis factor α as predictive criteria for initial poor graft function.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Novelli, G; Morabito, V; Lai, Q; Levi Sandri, G B; Melandro, F; Pugliese, F; Novelli, S; Rossi, M; Berloco, P B

    2012-09-01

    Initial poor graft function (IPGF) is a major factor influencing the clinical outcome after liver transplantation (LT), but there is no reliable method to assess and predict graft dysfunction. To help clinicians determine prognosis in the early postoperative period, individual parameters and complex scoring systems have been suggested, but most of them are inaccurate because of the multifactorial nature of transplantation courses. Therefore, the aim of our study was to retrospectively evaluate predictive criteria for retransplantation. Forty-two patients were enrolled in this study: 18 who experienced primary non-function (PNF) and 24 with delayed graft function (DGF). All of the patients were treated with the Molecular Adsorbent Recirculating System (MARS). They were into 3 subgroups: patients who survived without LT (n = 20; 47.7%); patients who underwent LT (n = 16; 37%), and patients who died before transplantation (n = 6; 14%). Stepwise multivariable logistic regression analysis was performed with the intent to find the risk factors for LT or death after MARS treatment (second analysis). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were performed on significant variables in the logistic regression model with the intent to individually predict variables for LT or death. After a stepwise multivariable logistic regression analysis enrolling all of the previously reported features only 2 variables, tumor necrosis factor (TFN)-α and Glasgow coma score (GCS) score, were statistically significant. TNF-α was an unique independent risk factor for retransplantation or death after MARS treatment (odds ratio [OR] 1.235; P = .013). Conversely, GCS score was protective against retransplantation or death (OR 0.150; P = .003). Starting from these assumptions, a predictive model was created using these 2 variables. On ROC analysis, the combined score showed an area under the curve greater than that of the 2 variables considered separately. Validating these results with a

  12. Predicting mental conditions based on "history of present illness" in psychiatric notes with deep neural networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tran, Tung; Kavuluru, Ramakanth

    2017-06-10

    Applications of natural language processing to mental health notes are not common given the sensitive nature of the associated narratives. The CEGS N-GRID 2016 Shared Task in Clinical Natural Language Processing (NLP) changed this scenario by providing the first set of neuropsychiatric notes to participants. This study summarizes our efforts and results in proposing a novel data use case for this dataset as part of the third track in this shared task. We explore the feasibility and effectiveness of predicting a set of common mental conditions a patient has based on the short textual description of patient's history of present illness typically occurring in the beginning of a psychiatric initial evaluation note. We clean and process the 1000 records made available through the N-GRID clinical NLP task into a key-value dictionary and build a dataset of 986 examples for which there is a narrative for history of present illness as well as Yes/No responses with regards to presence of specific mental conditions. We propose two independent deep neural network models: one based on convolutional neural networks (CNN) and another based on recurrent neural networks with hierarchical attention (ReHAN), the latter of which allows for interpretation of model decisions. We conduct experiments to compare these methods to each other and to baselines based on linear models and named entity recognition (NER). Our CNN model with optimized thresholding of output probability estimates achieves best overall mean micro-F score of 63.144% for 11 common mental conditions with statistically significant gains (p<0.05) over all other models. The ReHAN model with interpretable attention mechanism scored 61.904% mean micro-F1 score. Both models' improvements over baseline models (support vector machines and NER) are statistically significant. The ReHAN model additionally aids in interpretation of the results by surfacing important words and sentences that lead to a particular prediction for each

  13. Blowup phenomena for the compressible euler and euler-poisson equations with initial functional conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Sen; Yuen, Manwai

    2014-01-01

    We study, in the radial symmetric case, the finite time life span of the compressible Euler or Euler-Poisson equations in R (N) . For time t ≥ 0, we can define a functional H(t) associated with the solution of the equations and some testing function f. When the pressure function P of the governing equations is of the form P = Kρ (γ) , where ρ is the density function, K is a constant, and γ > 1, we can show that the nontrivial C (1) solutions with nonslip boundary condition will blow up in finite time if H(0) satisfies some initial functional conditions defined by the integrals of f. Examples of the testing functions include r (N-1)ln(r + 1), r (N-1) e (r) , r (N-1)(r (3) - 3r (2) + 3r + ε), r (N-1)sin((π/2)(r/R)), and r (N-1)sinh r. The corresponding blowup result for the 1-dimensional nonradial symmetric case is also given.

  14. The Effect of Initial Conditions on the Nonlinear Evolution of Perturbed Interfaces Driven by Strong Blast Waves

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Miles, A

    2004-04-27

    In core-collapse supernovae, strong blast waves drive interfaces susceptible to Rayleigh-Taylor (RT), Richtmyer-Meshkov (RM), and Kelvin-Helmholtz (KH) instabilities. In addition, perturbation growth can result from material expansion in large-scale velocity gradients behind the shock front. Laser-driven experiments are designed to produce a strongly shocked interface whose evolution is a scaled version of the unstable hydrogen-helium interface in core-collapse supernovae such as SN 1987A. The ultimate goal of this research is to develop an understanding of the effect of hydrodynamic instabilities and the resulting transition to turbulence on supernovae observables that remain as yet unexplained. In this dissertation, we present a computational study of unstable systems driven by high Mach number shock and blast waves. Using multi-physics radiation hydrodynamics codes and theoretical models, we consider the late nonlinear instability evolution of single mode, few mode, and multimode interfaces. We rely primarily on 2D calculations but present recent 3D results as well. For planar multimode systems, we show that compressibility effects preclude the emergence of a regime of self-similar instability growth independent of the initial conditions (IC's) by allowing for memory of the initial conditions to be retained in the mix-width at all times. The loss of transverse spectral information is demonstrated, however, along with the existence of a quasi-self-similar regime over short time intervals. Aspects of the IC's are shown to have a strong effect on the time to transition to the quasi-self-similar regime. With higher-dimensional blast waves, divergence restores the properties necessary for establishment of the self-similar state, but achieving it requires very high initial characteristic mode number and high Mach number for the incident blast wave. We point to recent stellar calculations that predict IC's we find incompatible with self-similarity, and

  15. The Effect of Initial Conditions on the Nonlinear Evolution of Perturbed Interfaces Driven by Strong Blast Waves

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Miles, Aaron R. [Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States)

    2004-01-01

    In core-collapse supernovae, strong blast waves drive interfaces susceptible to Rayleigh-Taylor (RT), Richtmyer-Meshkov (RM), and Kelvin-Helmholtz (KH) instabilities. In addition, perturbation growth can result from material expansion in large-scale velocity gradients behind the shock front. Laser-driven experiments are designed to produce a strongly shocked interface whose evolution is a scaled version of the unstable hydrogen-helium interface in core-collapse supernovae such as SN 1987A. The ultimate goal of this research is to develop an understanding of the effect of hydrodynamic instabilities and the resulting transition to turbulence on supernovae observables that remain as yet unexplained. In this dissertation, we present a computational study of unstable systems driven by high Mach number shock and blast waves. Using multi-physics radiation hydrodynamics codes and theoretical models, we consider the late nonlinear instability evolution of single mode, few mode, and multimode interfaces. We rely primarily on 2D calculations but present recent 3D results as well. For planar multimode systems, we show that compressibility effects preclude the emergence of a regime of self-similar instability growth independent of the initial conditions (IC's) by allowing for memory of the initial conditions to be retained in the mix-width at all times. The loss of transverse spectral information is demonstrated, however, along with the existence of a quasi-self-similar regime over short time intervals. Aspects of the IC's are shown to have a strong effect on the time to transition to the quasi-self-similar regime. With higher-dimensional blast waves, divergence restores the properties necessary for establishment of the self-similar state, but achieving it requires very high initial characteristic mode number and high Mach number for the incident blast wave. We point to recent stellar calculations that predict IC's we find incompatible with self-similarity, and

  16. Hydrological modelling for flood forecasting: Calibrating the post-fire initial conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papathanasiou, C.; Makropoulos, C.; Mimikou, M.

    2015-10-01

    Floods and forest fires are two of the most devastating natural hazards with severe socioeconomic, environmental as well as aesthetic impacts on the affected areas. Traditionally, these hazards are examined from different perspectives and are thus investigated through different, independent systems, overlooking the fact that they are tightly interrelated phenomena. In fact, the same flood event is more severe, i.e. associated with increased runoff discharge and peak flow and decreased time to peak, if it occurs over a burnt area than that occurring over a land not affected by fire. Mediterranean periurban areas, where forests covered with flammable vegetation coexist with agricultural land and urban zones, are typical areas particularly prone to the combined impact of floods and forest fires. Hence, the accurate assessment and effective management of post-fire flood risk becomes an issue of priority. The research presented in this paper aims to develop a robust methodological framework, using state of art tools and modern technologies to support the estimation of the change in time of five representative hydrological parameters for post-fire conditions. The proposed methodology considers both longer- and short-term initial conditions in order to assess the dynamic evolution of the selected parameters. The research focuses on typical Mediterranean periurban areas that are subjected to both hazards and concludes with a set of equations that associate post-fire and pre-fire conditions for five Fire Severity (FS) classes and three soil moisture states. The methodology has been tested for several flood events on the Rafina catchment, a periurban catchment in Eastern Attica (Greece). In order to validate the methodology, simulated hydrographs were produced and compared against available observed data. Results indicate a close convergence of observed and simulated flows. The proposed methodology is particularly flexible and thus easily adaptable to catchments with similar

  17. A Study on Effects of Initial Conditions to the Fuel Integrity Analysis of Steam Generator Tube Rupture Accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Min Seok; Kim, Ung Soo; Park, Min Soo; Huh, Jae Young; Lee, Gyu Cheon [KEPCO, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-05-15

    During SGTR accident, RCS pressure continuously decreases while the core power, core flow rate and core average temperature almost do not change until reactor trip occurs. As a result, the departure from nucleate boiling ratio (DNBR) also continuously decreases, thus eroding the thermal margin to DNB. To identify no damage of the fuel cladding due to the onset of film boiling, it must be analyzed whether the heat flux is maintained below the critical heat flux or not. For this purpose, it is used to define the specified acceptable fuel design limit (SAFDL) of DNBR and evaluate that the DNBR stays above the SAFDL. Evaluating the DNBR in SGTR accident, several initial conditions are varied as that would challenge to the safety limit, or SAFDL. However, the effects of some initial conditions are complicate and difficult to be intuitively identified. The initial conditions mainly affect the minimum DNBR during SGTR accident are the initial core power, the initial RCS flow rate, the initial core inlet temperature and the initial pressurizer pressure. The conservative initial conditions for the core power and the RCS flow rate can be determined easily by qualitative evaluation. The others such as the initial core inlet temperature and the initial pressurizer pressure are complicate and difficult to be determined. From this study, it is identified that the maximum initial pressurizer pressure and the minimum initial core inlet temperature on SGTR accident most postpones the reactor trip resulting in smaller RCS inventory at the reactor trip time point. And the smaller RCS inventory at the time point of the reactor trip tends to make the DNBR undershoot larger which is a dominant factor to determine the minimum DNBR under a LOOP condition.

  18. Evaluation of Sub-Zonal Airflow Models for the Prediction of Local Interior Boundary Conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Steskens, Paul W. M. H.; Janssen, Hans; Rode, Carsten

    2013-01-01

    and applicability of the sub-zonal airflow model to predict the local indoor environmental conditions, as well as the local surface transfer coefficients near building components. Two test cases were analyzed for, respectively, natural and forced convection in a room. The simulation results predicted from the sub...

  19. Influence of snow and soil moisture initialization on sub-seasonal predictability and forecast skill in boreal spring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Jaison Ambadan; Berg, Aaron A.; Merryfield, William J.

    2016-07-01

    This study examines the influence of snow and soil moisture initialization on sub-seasonal potential and actual prediction skill of Canadian Climate Model version 3 (CanCM3) predictions of springtime (April-May) near surface air temperature. Four series of ten-member ensemble forecasts, initialized on 1st April where each series use different land surface initialization, were performed for the 20 year period 1986-2005. Potential predictability of temperature for extratropical Northern Hemisphere land is assessed using synthetic truth and signal-to-noise methods, and compared with actual prediction skills determined through validation against an ensemble mean of six reanalysis products. These metrics are computed for the forecasted 15 days averaged values of temperature at 15, 30 and 45 days lead times. Three of the four land surface initializations considered are intended to be realistic. These are obtained from the Canadian LAand Surface Scheme (CLASS) land surface component of the climate model driven off line with bias-corrected meteorological fields, with and without rescaling to the climate model's land climatology, and from climate model runs where the atmospheric component is constrained by reanalysis fields. A fourth land surface initialization that is intended to be unrealistic consists of a "scrambled" version of that obtained from rescaled offline-driven CLASS, in which each ensemble member is assigned values from a year other than the one being forecasted. Comparisons of forecasts using the scrambled and corresponding realistic land initializations indicate that the latter show higher potential predictability overall especially over North America and parts of Eurasia at all lead times. The higher potential predictability is primarily attributed to correct initialization of land surface variables, in particular the snow water equivalent, and the frozen and liquid components of soil moisture. Our results also indicate that predictability is governed

  20. Mine Burial Assessment State-of the Art in Prediction and Modeling Workshop and Initiation of Technical Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    2000-09-30

    Mine Burial Assessment State-of the Art in Prediction and Modeling Workshop and Initiation of Technical Program Richard H. Bennett SEAPROBE, Inc 501...Assessment State-of the Art in Prediction and Modeling Workshop and Initiation of Technical Program 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM... Technical Program , Agenda, Background, and References, Bennett and Wilkens, 2000. d. Completed Reviews of the state-of-the-art practices in Mine Burial

  1. [Prediction and prevention of type 1 diabetes mellitus: initial results and recent prospects].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madácsy, László

    2011-11-27

    Epidemiological studies indicate that the incidence and prevalence of type 1 diabetes mellitus is rising worldwide. The increase in incidence has been most prominent in the youngest age group of childhood. Prediction of type 1a autoimmune diabetes can be established by a positive family history or by genetic, immunological or metabolic markers. Prevention of type 1 diabetes can be implemented at three different levels of pathogenesis: primary prevention in individuals without any sign of beta-cell damage, secondary prevention in individuals with signs of beta-cell destruction and tertiary prevention in patients with newly diagnosed type 1 diabetes. In recent years our knowledge of the disease pathogenesis has grown quickly, and several new prevention trials have been initiated worldwide. Immunologic intervention for type 1 diabetes will prove to be probably the most effective.

  2. Thermal vibration of a single-layered graphene with initial stress predicted by semiquantum molecular dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Rumeng; Wang, Lifeng; Jiang, Jingnong

    2016-09-01

    Thermal vibration of a rectangular single-layered graphene sheet (RSLGS) with initial stress is investigated by a semiquantum molecular dynamics (SQMD) method on the basis of modified Langevin dynamics. The quantum effect in the thermal vibration of RSLGS is accounted by introducing a quantum thermal bath. The spectrum of the thermal vibration of RSLGSs is obtained both by SQMD and classical molecular dynamics (CMD). The RSLGS vibrates with the same frequencies via both the SQMD simulation and the CMD simulation. The root of mean squared (rms) amplitude obtained via the CMD is greater than that obtained via the SQMD. The energy in high order mode is frozen at very low temperature if quantum effect is taken into consideration. An elastic plate model with initial stress considering quantum effects is established to describe the thermal vibration of the RSLGS. The rms amplitude of RSLGS calculated by plate model with the law of energy equipartition and that obtained from the CMD coincide very well. The plate model considering the quantum effects provides accurate prediction of the rms amplitude of the RSLGS obtained from the SQMD. These results indicate that quantum effects cannot be neglected in the thermal vibration of the RSLGS at low temperature case.

  3. Effect of Initial Conditions on Gas-Puff Z-Pinch Dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peterson, Gus Gordon

    This dissertation concerns the effects initial conditions have on the dynamics of an imploded, annular gas-puff z-pinch. The influence of axial magnetic fields, nozzle size and composition, different gases, pre-ionization, and electrode design on pinch quality and x-ray yield is investigated. The experiment uses a 5-kJ capacitor bank to deliver 0.35 MA to the pinch load in 1.4 mu rm s. This research establishes parameters important to increasing the x-ray yield of dense z-pinches. The initial stage of the implosion is diagnosed with a framing camera that photographs visible light emitted from z-pinch gas breakdown. Data from subsequent stages of the pinch is recorded with a B-dot probe, filtered x-ray diodes, an x-ray filtered pinhole camera, and a nitrogen laser interferometer. Applied axial magnetic fields of ~100 gauss increase average x-ray yield by more than 20%. A substantial increase of K-shell x -ray yield of more than 200% was obtained by increasing the energy delivered to the plasma by enlarging the nozzle diameter from 4 to 5 cm. The use of a Teflon outer-mantle for the nozzle resulted in less uniform gas breakdown as compared to graphite and copper outer-mantles, but x-ray yield and final state uniformity were not reduced. Lower Z gases showed poorer breakdown uniformity. Pre-ionization improved the uniformity of helium and neon breakdown but did not appear to affect subsequent dynamics. X-ray yield was significantly higher using a knife-edge annular anode, as opposed to a flat stainless steel honeycomb anode. Annular anodes with diameters more than a few millimeters different than the nozzle diameter produced low quality pinches with substantially lower x-ray yield.

  4. Conditional nonlinear optimal perturbations based on the particle swarm optimization and their applications to the predictability problems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Qin; Yang, Zubin; Sha, Jianxin; Yan, Jun

    2017-02-01

    In predictability problem research, the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) describes the initial perturbation that satisfies a certain constraint condition and causes the largest prediction error at the prediction time. The CNOP has been successfully applied in estimation of the lower bound of maximum predictable time (LBMPT). Generally, CNOPs are calculated by a gradient descent algorithm based on the adjoint model, which is called ADJ-CNOP. This study, through the two-dimensional Ikeda model, investigates the impacts of the nonlinearity on ADJ-CNOP and the corresponding precision problems when using ADJ-CNOP to estimate the LBMPT. Our conclusions are that (1) when the initial perturbation is large or the prediction time is long, the strong nonlinearity of the dynamical model in the prediction variable will lead to failure of the ADJ-CNOP method, and (2) when the objective function has multiple extreme values, ADJ-CNOP has a large probability of producing local CNOPs, hence making a false estimation of the LBMPT. Furthermore, the particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm, one kind of intelligent algorithm, is introduced to solve this problem. The method using PSO to compute CNOP is called PSO-CNOP. The results of numerical experiments show that even with a large initial perturbation and long prediction time, or when the objective function has multiple extreme values, PSO-CNOP can always obtain the global CNOP. Since the PSO algorithm is a heuristic search algorithm based on the population, it can overcome the impact of nonlinearity and the disturbance from multiple extremes of the objective function. In addition, to check the estimation accuracy of the LBMPT presented by PSO-CNOP and ADJ-CNOP, we partition the constraint domain of initial perturbations into sufficiently fine grid meshes and take the LBMPT obtained by the filtering method as a benchmark. The result shows that the estimation presented by PSO-CNOP is closer to the true value than the

  5. Preliminary development of flaw evaluation procedures for delayed hydride cracking initiation under hydride non-ratcheting conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xu, S.; Cui, J.; Kawa, D.; Shek, G.K.; Scarth, D.A. [Kinectrics Inc., Toronto, Ontario (Canada)

    2006-07-01

    The flaw evaluation procedure for Delayed Hydride Cracking (DHC) initiation currently provided in the CSA Standard N285.8 was developed for hydride ratcheting conditions, in which flaw-tip hydrides do not completely dissolve at peak temperature. Test results have shown that hydrided regions formed under non-ratcheting conditions, in which flaw-tip hydrides completely dissolve at peak temperature, have significantly higher resistance to cracking than those formed under ratcheting conditions. This paper presents some preliminary work on the development of a procedure for the evaluation of DHC initiation for flaws under hydride non-ratcheting conditions. (author)

  6. Prediction of sand transport over immobile gravel from supply limited to capacity conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    The prediction of the transport of sand in armored gravel reaches downstream of dams is complicated by variable bed conditions ranging from sand transported through gravel to sand in transport over buried gravel. Knowledge of the rate of sand transport in these conditions, however, is necessary for...

  7. Welfare Conditions of Donkeys in Europe: Initial Outcomes from On-Farm Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francesca Dai

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper is a baseline study to present the initial outcomes of data collected in a sample of EU donkey farms using the AWIN welfare assessment protocol for donkeys, comprehensive of 22 valid, reliable and feasible animal-based indicators. A total of 20 donkey facilities (N = 12 in Italy and N = 8 in United Kingdom were visited and 278 donkeys of different breed, aged 2–45 years, were assessed. Three assessors underwent a common training period to learn how to perform and score all the indicators included in the protocol. Data was collected using digitalized systems and downloaded to a database. A descriptive statistic for each welfare indicator was calculated. The authors found recurrent issues: 25% of donkeys were moderately over weight; although most of the assessed animals had good quality hoof care, 15.16% of them presented some signs of neglect, such as overgrowth and/or incorrect trimming; 18.05% of donkeys showed an avoidance reaction to an approaching human in the avoidance distance test. The protocol has proven to be applicable in different management conditions and for donkeys of different attitude.

  8. The initial conditions of stellar protocluster formation. I. A catalogue of Spitzer dark clouds

    CERN Document Server

    Peretto, N

    2009-01-01

    The majority of stars form in clusters. Therefore a comprehensive view of star formation requires understanding the initial conditions for cluster formation. The goal of our study is to shed light on the physical properties of infrared dark clouds (IRDCs) and the role they play in the formation of stellar clusters. This article, the first of a series dedicated to the study of IRDCs, describes techniques developed to establish a complete catalogue of Spitzer IRDCs in the Galaxy. We have analysed Spitzer GLIMPSE and MIPSGAL data to identify a complete sample of IRDCs in the region of Galactic longitude and latitude 10deg 1x10^{22} cm^{-2}. The 24micron data are then used to characterize the star formation activity of each extracted cloud. A total of 11303 clouds have been extracted. A comparison with the existing MSX based catalogue of IRDCs shows that 80% of these Spitzer dark clouds were previously unknown. The algorithm also extracts ~ 20000 to 50000 fragments within these clouds, depending on detection thr...

  9. The influence of initial conditions of water-entry on ricochet phenomenon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guoming, Chen; Jinfu, Feng; Junhua, Hu; Yongli, Li; An, Liu

    2017-08-01

    The ricochet phenomenon of the water-entry of the water-air crossing vehicle is investigated by both experiments and numerical simulations. Experiments and numerical simulations of the water-entry process with different inclination angles, velocities, and attack angles are performed. The whole ricochet progress and the changing rules of angular acceleration, angular velocity, and displacement are obtained and analyzed by numerical simulation for a deeper understanding of ricochet phenomenon. The experiment is carried out to study the underwater trajectory by changing the initial condition only. The experimental results are in good agreement with the simulations. The results show that: (1) A small inclination angle causes the trajectory to bend upward, favoring the ricochet phenomenon. (2) A large velocity value also favors the ricochet phenomenon, making it occur more easily and quickly, but lower velocities are insufficient to provide the necessary kinetic energy. (3) The ricochet phenomenon is more likely to occur under a negative attack angle that causes the trajectory to bend upward, but a positive angle balances the underwater trajectory. These results can provide guidance to design a new water-air cross vehicle.

  10. Numerical convergence in self-gravitating disc simulations: initial conditions and edge effects

    CERN Document Server

    Paardekooper, Sijme-Jan; Meru, Farzana

    2011-01-01

    We study the numerical convergence of hydrodynamical simulations of self-gravitating accretion discs, in which a simple cooling law is balanced by shock heating. It is well-known that there exists a critical cooling time scale for which shock heating can no longer compensate for the energy losses, at which point the disc fragments. The numerical convergence of previous results of this critical cooling time scale was questioned recently using Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH). We employ a two-dimensional grid-based code to study this problem, and find that for smooth initial conditions, fragmentation is possible for slower cooling as the resolution is increased, in agreement with recent SPH results. We show that this non-convergence is at least partly due to the creation of a special location in the disc, the boundary between the turbulent and the laminar region, when cooling towards a gravito-turbulent state. Converged results appear to be obtained in setups where no such sharp edges appear, and we then f...

  11. Study on Transient Void Behavior During Reactivity Initiated Accidents Under Low Pressure Condition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Satou, Akira; Maruyama, Yu; Asaka, Hideaki; Nakamura, Hideo

    Series of out-of-pile experiments to obtain the knowledge on the transient void behavior during reactivity initiated accidents are in progress at JAEA. In the present series of experiments, the transient void behavior in a test section of 2 x 2 bundle geometry under atmospheric pressure condition was measured using an impedance technique. The measuring areas and the arrangement of electrodes for the impedance technique were defined on the basis of numerical analyses and scaled model experiments. The comparison was made between the impedance and differential pressure techniques for steady boiling experiments to estimate the accuracy of the impedance technique. The impedance technique showed a good agreement with the void fraction estimated from the differential pressure. The transient void behavior in the bundle geometry was measured using the impedance technique. The void fraction distribution in the bundle cross-section could be quantitatively obtained by the impedance technique. It could be properly confirmed that the transient void behavior depended on both the subcooling of inlet water and the heat generation rate of simulated fuel rods.

  12. Fingerprints of the initial conditions on the density profiles of cold and warm dark matter haloes

    CERN Document Server

    Polisensky, E

    2015-01-01

    We use N-body simulations of dark matter haloes in cold dark matter (CDM) and a large set of different warm dark matter (WDM) cosmologies to demonstrate that the spherically averaged density profile of dark matter haloes has a shape that depends on the power spectrum of matter perturbations. Density profiles are steeper in WDM but become shallower at scales less than one percent of the virial radius. Virialization isotropizes the velocity dispersion in the inner regions of the halo but does not erase the memory of the initial conditions in phase space. The location of the observed deviations from CDM in the density profile and in phase space can be directly related to the ratio between the halo mass and the filtering mass and are most evident in small mass haloes, even for a 34 keV thermal relic WDM. The rearrangement of mass within the haloes supports analytic models of halo structure that include angular momentum. We also find evidence of a dependence of the slope of the inner density profile in CDM cosmolo...

  13. Angra 1 high burnup fuel behaviour under reactivity initiated accident conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gomes, Daniel de Souza; Silva, Antonio Teixeira e, E-mail: dsgomes@ipen.b, E-mail: teixeira@ipen.b [Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN/CNEN-SP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil)

    2011-07-01

    The 16x16 NGF (Next Generation Fuel) fuel assembly, comprising of highly corrosive-resistant ZIRLO clad fuel rods, been replacing the current 16x16 Standard (16STD) fuel assembly in the Angra 1, a pressurized water reactor, with a net output of 626 MWe. The 16x16 NGF fuel assemblies are designed for a peak rod average burnup of up to 75 GWd/MTU, thus improving fuel utilization and reducing spent fuel storage issues. A design basis accident, the Reactivity Initiated Accident (RIA), became a concern for a further increase in burnup as the simulated RIA tests revealed a lower enthalpy threshold for fuel failure. Two fuel performance codes, FRAPCON and FRAPTRAN, were used to predict high burnup behavior of Angra 1, during an RIA. The maximum average linear fuel rating used was 17.62 KW/m. The FRAPCON 3.4 code was applied to simulate the steady-state performance of the 16 NGF fuel rods up to a burnup of 55 GWd/MTU. With FRAPTRAN-1.4 the fuel behavior was simulated for an RIA power pulse of 4.5 ms (FHWH), and enthalpy peak of 130 Cal/g. With FRAPCON-3.4, the corrosion and hydrogen pickup characteristics of the advanced ZIRLO clad fuel rods were added to the code by modifying the actual corrosion model for Zircaloy-4 through the multiplication of empirical factors, which were appropriate to each alloy, and by means of reducing the current hydrogen pickup fraction. (author)

  14. conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Venkatesulu

    1996-01-01

    Full Text Available Solutions of initial value problems associated with a pair of ordinary differential systems (L1,L2 defined on two adjacent intervals I1 and I2 and satisfying certain interface-spatial conditions at the common end (interface point are studied.

  15. SIMULATION OF CARS ACCUMULATION PROCESSES FOR SOLVING TASKS OF OPERATIONAL PLANNING IN CONDITIONS OF INITIAL INFORMATION UNCERTAINTY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    О. A. Tereshchenko

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. The article highlights development of the methodological basis for simulation the processes of cars accumulation in solving operational planning problems under conditions of initial information uncertainty for assessing the sustainability of the adopted planning scenario and calculating the associated technological risks. Methodology. The solution of the problem under investigation is based on the use of general scientific approaches, the apparatus of probability theory and the theory of fuzzy sets. To achieve this purpose, the factors influencing the entropy of operational plans are systematized. It is established that when planning the operational work of railway stations, sections and nodes, the most significant factors that cause uncertainty in the initial information are: a external conditions with respect to the railway ground in question, expressed by the uncertainty of the timing of cars arrivals; b external, hard-to-identify goals for the functioning of other participants in the logistics chain (primarily customers, expressed by the uncertainty of the completion time with the freight cars. These factors are suggested to be taken into account in automated planning through statistical analysis – the establishment and study of the remaining time (prediction errors. As a result, analytical dependencies are proposed for rational representation of the probability density functions of the time residual distribution in the form of point, piecewise-defined and continuous analytic models. The developed models of cars accumulation, the application of which depends on the identified states of the predicted incoming car flow to the accumulation system, are presented below. In addition, the last proposed model is a general case of models of accumulation processes with an arbitrary level of reliability of the initial information for any structure of the incoming flow of cars. In conclusion, a technique for estimating the results of

  16. Prediction of the initial normal stress in piles and anchors constructed using expansive cements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haberfield, C. M.

    2000-03-01

    Uses for expansive cements and additives have extended well beyond off-setting the shrinkage characteristics of grout and concrete to include enhancement of rock anchor and pile performance, providing an alternative form of connection for tubular members in off-shore structures and as an excavation tool in open-pit mines. In each case, the design rules governing the quantity of expansive additive to be used are based on guesswork or empiricism. This paper presents analytical solutions for estimating the degree of expansion and the level of normal stress developed for a range of different boundary conditions and expansive additive contents. The expansion process is modelled as a thermal expansion and is governed by one parameter that depends on the type of expansive additive and its dosage. Simple laboratory procedures for determining this property are outlined. Predictions from the analytical solutions are compared with laboratory experiments.

  17. Constraints on rapidity-dependent initial conditions from charged particle pseudorapidity densities and two-particle correlations

    CERN Document Server

    Ke, Weiyao; Bernhard, Jonah E; Bass, Steffen A

    2016-01-01

    We study the initial three-dimensional spatial configuration of the quark-gluon plasma produced in relativistic heavy-ion collisions using centrality and rapidity-dependent measurements of charged particle pseudorapidity densities and two-particle correlations. A cumulant-generating function is used to parametrize the rapidity dependence of local entropy deposition and extend arbitrary boost-invariant initial conditions to nonzero beam rapidities. The model is compared to p+Pb and Pb+Pb single-particle distributions and systematically optimized using Bayesian parameter estimation to extract high-probability initial condition parameters. The optimized initial conditions are then compared to a number of experimental observables including two-particle rapidity correlations, the rapidity dependence of anisotropic flow, and event-plane decorrelations.

  18. Unraveling the dynamics that scale cross-shore headland relief on rocky coastlines: 2. Model predictions and initial tests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Limber, Patrick W.; Murray, A. Brad

    2014-04-01

    We explore the behavior of a theoretical model of cross-shore headland relief caused by alongshore differences in lithology and rock strength on rocky coastlines. Results address the question of why some rocky coasts exhibit frequent headland and embayment sequences while others evolve to a flat, smooth, and sandy configuration. Main model predictions are that cross-shore headland amplitude is inversely proportional to beach sediment supply and the strength of wave energy convergence and divergence along the headland and bay, and proportional to the alongshore embayment length (or distance between headlands) and the difference between headland and bay rock strength. The coastline's initial physical properties (sea cliff height, composition, etc.) largely determine whether headlands will be persistent or transient landscape features. Model timescales over which the headland and bay reach steady state amplitude, or disappear to a flat coastline, range from 120 to 175,000 years depending on how close the initial amplitude is to steady state. In many cases, the coastline must evolve over several sea level highstands in order to reach equilibrium. A characteristic timescale (independent of initial conditions) shows that the coastline evolves most rapidly when: wave focusing is stronger; sea cliff rock is weaker or retreats faster in a given wave climate; the sea cliff retreat rate decreases rapidly as a function of beach width (i.e., the beach is very effective at dampening wave energy); and the coastline is sediment rich. Comparisons to nature suggest that our model is qualitatively capturing general rocky coastline dynamics and that modeled headland amplitudes are consistent with observed amplitudes.

  19. Learning through Feature Prediction: An Initial Investigation into Teaching Categories to Children with Autism through Predicting Missing Features

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sweller, Naomi

    2015-01-01

    Individuals with autism have difficulty generalising information from one situation to another, a process that requires the learning of categories and concepts. Category information may be learned through: (1) classifying items into categories, or (2) predicting missing features of category items. Predicting missing features has to this point been…

  20. Do morphological condition indices predict locomotor performance in the lizard Podarcis sicula?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vervust, Bart; Lailvaux, Simon P.; Grbac, Irena; Van Damme, Raoul

    2008-09-01

    Biologists have developed a number of simple metrics to assess the health and energetic status of individual organisms and populations. While these condition indices have been widely used to address questions in evolutionary ecology and conservation biology, the ability of such indices to predict ecologically relevant locomotor performance abilities remains unknown. We show here that the functional links between six commonly used morphological condition indices and locomotor performance in two populations of Adriatic lizards ( Podarcis sicula) are weak at best. Indeed, no indices consistently predict either maximum sprint speed or maximum exertion across sexes, seasons or populations. These results cast doubt on the ecological relevance of morphological condition indices in terms of locomotor performance, measured in laboratory conditions, at least in this species. We urge caution in using condition indices as proxies for individual physiological or phenotypic quality in ecological and evolutionary studies.

  1. Breeding technique for initializing global coupled climate model for decadal climate prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romanova, Vanya; Hense, Andreas

    2015-04-01

    Defining the uncertainties at the starting day of a hindcast is still problematic and there is no well established method from weather forecasting, which could be applied directly by the decadal forecast community. The success of proper initialization depend mainly on finding of the locations and strengths of uncertainties, which develop and grow fastest with the forecast time. One method widely used for a short and medium range forecast is the Bred Vectors (BV) technique. Here, we test the BV for a long-range, inter-annual, seasonal and decadal forecast. The applied a-priori random noise is bred over the time iteratively until the nonlinear fastest growing errors are extracted. The growth rates of these non-linearly filtered instabilities appear to approach the leading Lyapunov exponents (Toth and Kalnay, 1993) if the BV process is continued over a longer time period. Targeting decadal prediction we search only for the slowest modes of the ocean physical processes, and expect the disturbances to grow mainly in the Western Boundary Currents, in the ACC and ENSO regions. Therefore we implemented a BV variant which determines local BV around an almost fixed in time oceanic state. The breeding technique is build around the MPIOM-ESM coupled model at T31L31/GR30L40 resolution. Perturbations are applied on the ocean temperature, salinity, meridional and zonal components of the velocity. The metric used to scale the disturbed fields is taken to be the weighted total energy with its zonal, meridional kinetic and available potential energy terms having equal contributions. Also this weighted total energy norm is used to monitor the growths rates of the fastest growing error modes. The method and the breeding application are still in a testing phase. However, the first bred vectors are analyzed and the most sensitive regions in the ocean responsible for inter-annual to decadal variability are localized. A refinement of the scaling procedure of the amplitude of the

  2. Sensitivity of the last glacial inception to initial and surface conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kubatzki, Claudia [Potsdam-Institut fuer Klimafolgenforschung e.V., Potsdam (Germany); Alfred-Wegener-Institut fuer Polar- und Meeresforschung, Bremerhaven (Germany); Claussen, Martin [Potsdam-Institut fuer Klimafolgenforschung e.V., Potsdam (Germany); Hamburg Univ. (Germany). Meteorologisches Inst.; Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg (Germany); Calov, Reinhard; Ganopolski, Andrey [Potsdam-Institut fuer Klimafolgenforschung e.V., Potsdam (Germany)

    2006-09-15

    We investigate the sensitivity of simulations of the last glacial inception (LGI) with respect to initial (size of the Greenland ice sheet) and surface (state of ocean/vegetation) conditions and two different CO{sub 2} reconstructions. Utilizing the CLIMBER-2 Earth system model, we obtain the following results: (a) ice-sheet expansion in North America at the end of the Eemian can be reduced or even completely suppressed when pre-industrial or Eemian ocean/vegetation is prescribed. (b) A warmer surrounding ocean and, in particular, a large Laurentide ice sheet reduce the size of the Greenland ice sheet before and during the LGI. (c) A changing ocean contributes much stronger to the expansion of the Laurentide ice sheet when we apply the CO{sub 2} reconstruction according to Barnola et al. (Nature 329:408-414, 1987) instead of Petit et al. (Nature 399:429-436, 1999). (d) In the fully coupled model, the CO{sub 2} reconstruction used has only a small impact on the simulated ice sheets but it does impact the course of the climatic variables. (e) For the Greenland ice sheet, two equilibrium states exist under the insolation and CO{sub 2} forcing at 128,000 years before present (128 kyear BP); the one with an ice sheet reduced by about one quarter as compared to its simulated pre-industrial size and the other with nearly no inland ice in Greenland. (f) Even the extreme assumption of no ice sheet in Greenland at the beginning of our transient simulations does not alter the simulated expansion of northern hemispheric ice sheets at the LGI. (orig.)

  3. Prediction of structural integrity of steam generator tubes under severe accident conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Majumdar, S. [Argonne National Lab., IL (United States)

    1999-11-01

    Available models for predicting failure of flawed and unflawed steam generator tubes under normal operating and design-basis accident conditions are reviewed. These rate-independent flow stress models are inadequate for predicting failure of steam generator tubes under severe accident conditions because the temperature of the tubes during such accidents can reach as high as 800 C where creep effects become important. Therefore, a creep rupture model for predicting failure was developed and validated by tests on unflawed and flawed specimens containing axial and circumferential flaws and loaded by constant as well as ramped temperature and pressure loadings. Finally, tests were conducted using pressure and temperature histories that are calculated to occur during postulated severe accidents. In all cases, the creep rupture model predicted the failure temperature and time more accurately than the flow stress models. (orig.)

  4. Condition Assessment and End-of-Life Prediction System for Electric Machines and Their Loads

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parlos, Alexander G.; Toliyat, Hamid A.

    2005-01-01

    An end-of-life prediction system developed for electric machines and their loads could be used in integrated vehicle health monitoring at NASA and in other government agencies. This system will provide on-line, real-time condition assessment and end-of-life prediction of electric machines (e.g., motors, generators) and/or their loads of mechanically coupled machinery (e.g., pumps, fans, compressors, turbines, conveyor belts, magnetic levitation trains, and others). In long-duration space flight, the ability to predict the lifetime of machinery could spell the difference between mission success or failure. Therefore, the system described here may be of inestimable value to the U.S. space program. The system will provide continuous monitoring for on-line condition assessment and end-of-life prediction as opposed to the current off-line diagnoses.

  5. Influence of Met-Ocean Condition Forecasting Uncertainties on Weather Window Predictions for Offshore Operations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gintautas, Tomas; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2017-01-01

    The article briefly presents a novel methodology of weather window estimation for offshore operations and mainly focuses on effects of met-ocean condition forecasting uncertainties on weather window predictions when using the proposed methodology. It is demonstrated that the proposed methodology...... to include stochastic variables, representing met-ocean forecasting uncertainties and the results of such modification are given in terms of predicted weather windows for a selected test case....

  6. Coupled prediction of flood response and debris flow initiation during warm and cold season events in the Southern Appalachians, USA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Tao

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Debris flows associated with rainstorms are a frequent and devastating hazard in the Southern Appalachians in the United States. Whereas warm season events are clearly associated with heavy rainfall intensity, the same cannot be said for the cold season events. Instead, there is a relationship between large (cumulative rainfall events independently of season, and thus hydrometeorological regime, and debris flows. This suggests that the dynamics of subsurface hydrologic processes play an important role as a trigger mechanism, specifically through soil moisture redistribution by interflow. The first objective of this study is to investigate this hypothesis. The second objective is to assess the physical basis for a regional coupled flood prediction and debris flow warning system. For this purpose, uncalibrated model simulations of well-documented debris flows in headwater catchments of the Southern Appalachians using a 3-D surface-groundwater hydrologic model coupled with slope stability models are examined in detail. Specifically, we focus on two vulnerable headwater catchments that experience frequent debris flows, the Big Creek and the Jonathan Creek in the Upper Pigeon River Basin, North Carolina, and three distinct weather systems: an extremely heavy summertime convective storm in 2011; a persistent winter storm lasting several days; and a severe winter storm in 2009. These events were selected due to the optimal availability of rainfall observations, availability of detailed field surveys of the landslides shortly after they occurred, which can be used to evaluate model predictions, and because they are representative of events that cause major economic losses in the region. The model results substantiate that interflow is a useful prognostic of conditions necessary for the initiation of slope instability, and should therefore be considered explicitly in landslide hazard assessments. Moreover, the relationships between slope stability and

  7. Coupled prediction of flood response and debris flow initiation during warm and cold season events in the Southern Appalachians, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tao, J.; Barros, A. P.

    2013-07-01

    Debris flows associated with rainstorms are a frequent and devastating hazard in the Southern Appalachians in the United States. Whereas warm season events are clearly associated with heavy rainfall intensity, the same cannot be said for the cold season events. Instead, there is a relationship between large (cumulative) rainfall events independently of season, and thus hydrometeorological regime, and debris flows. This suggests that the dynamics of subsurface hydrologic processes play an important role as a trigger mechanism, specifically through soil moisture redistribution by interflow. The first objective of this study is to investigate this hypothesis. The second objective is to assess the physical basis for a regional coupled flood prediction and debris flow warning system. For this purpose, uncalibrated model simulations of well-documented debris flows in headwater catchments of the Southern Appalachians using a 3-D surface-groundwater hydrologic model coupled with slope stability models are examined in detail. Specifically, we focus on two vulnerable headwater catchments that experience frequent debris flows, the Big Creek and the Jonathan Creek in the Upper Pigeon River Basin, North Carolina, and three distinct weather systems: an extremely heavy summertime convective storm in 2011; a persistent winter storm lasting several days; and a severe winter storm in 2009. These events were selected due to the optimal availability of rainfall observations, availability of detailed field surveys of the landslides shortly after they occurred, which can be used to evaluate model predictions, and because they are representative of events that cause major economic losses in the region. The model results substantiate that interflow is a useful prognostic of conditions necessary for the initiation of slope instability, and should therefore be considered explicitly in landslide hazard assessments. Moreover, the relationships between slope stability and interflow are

  8. Predicting fear of heights, snakes, and public speaking from multimodal classical conditioning events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Ning Ying; Conger, Anthony J; Dygdon, Judith A

    2006-04-01

    Two hundred fifty one men and women participated in a study of the prediction of fear of heights, snakes, and public speaking by providing retrospective accounts of multimodal classical conditioning events involving those stimuli. The fears selected for study represent those believed by some to be innate (i.e., heights), prepared (i.e., snakes), and purely experientially learned (i.e., public speaking). This study evaluated the extent to which classical conditioning experiences in direct, observational, and verbal modes contributed to the prediction of the current level of fear severity. Subjects were asked to describe their current level of fear and to estimate their experience with fear response-augmenting events (first- and higher-order aversive pairings) and fear response-moderating events (first- and higher-order appetitive pairings, and pre- and post-conditioning neutral presentations) in direct, observational, and verbal modes. For each stimulus, fear was predictable from direct response-augmenting events and prediction was enhanced by the inclusion of response-moderating events. Furthermore, for each fear, maximum prediction was attained by the addition of variables tapping experiences in the observational and/or verbal modes. Conclusions are offered regarding the importance of including response-augmenting and response-moderating events in all three modes in both research and clinical applications of classical conditioning.

  9. ACCEPT: Introduction of the Adverse Condition and Critical Event Prediction Toolbox

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Rodney A.; Santanu, Das; Janakiraman, Vijay Manikandan; Hosein, Stefan

    2015-01-01

    The prediction of anomalies or adverse events is a challenging task, and there are a variety of methods which can be used to address the problem. In this paper, we introduce a generic framework developed in MATLAB (sup registered mark) called ACCEPT (Adverse Condition and Critical Event Prediction Toolbox). ACCEPT is an architectural framework designed to compare and contrast the performance of a variety of machine learning and early warning algorithms, and tests the capability of these algorithms to robustly predict the onset of adverse events in any time-series data generating systems or processes.

  10. Performance Reliability Prediction of Complex System Based on the Condition Monitoring Information

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hongxing Wang

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Complex system performance reliability prediction is one of the means to understand complex systems reliability level, make maintenance decision, and guarantee the safety of operation. By the use of complex system condition monitoring information and condition monitoring information based on support vector machine, the paper aims to provide an evaluation of the degradation of complex system performance. With degradation assessment results as input variables, the prediction model of reliability is established in Winer random process. Taking the aircraft engine as an example, the effectiveness of the proposed method is verified in the paper.

  11. Quantitative measures of meniscus extrusion predict incident radiographic knee osteoarthritis – data from the Osteoarthritis Initiative

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emmanuel, K.; Quinn, E.; Niu, J.; Guermazi, A.; Roemer, F.; Wirth, W.; Eckstein, F.; Felson, D.

    2017-01-01

    SUMMARY Objective To test the hypothesis that quantitative measures of meniscus extrusion predict incident radiographic knee osteoarthritis (KOA), prior to the advent of radiographic disease. Methods 206 knees with incident radiographic KOA (Kellgren Lawrence Grade (KLG) 0 or 1 at baseline, developing KLG 2 or greater with a definite osteophyte and joint space narrowing (JSN) grade ≥1 by year 4) were matched to 232 control knees not developing incident KOA. Manual segmentation of the central five slices of the medial and lateral meniscus was performed on coronal 3T DESS MRI and quantitative meniscus position was determined. Cases and controls were compared using conditional logistic regression adjusting for age, sex, BMI, race and clinical site. Sensitivity analyses of early (year [Y] 1/2) and late (Y3/4) incidence was performed. Results Mean medial extrusion distance was significantly greater for incident compared to non-incident knees (1.56 mean ± 1.12 mm SD vs 1.29 ± 0.99 mm; +21%, P < 0.01), so was the percent extrusion area of the medial meniscus (25.8 ± 15.8% vs 22.0 ± 13.5%; +17%, P < 0.05). This finding was consistent for knees restricted to medial incidence. No significant differences were observed for the lateral meniscus in incident medial KOA, or for the tibial plateau coverage between incident and non-incident knees. Restricting the analysis to medial incident KOA at Y1/2 differences were attenuated, but reached significance for extrusion distance, whereas no significant differences were observed at incident KOA in Y3/4. Conclusion Greater medial meniscus extrusion predicts incident radiographic KOA. Early onset KOA showed greater differences for meniscus position between incident and non-incident knees than late onset KOA. PMID:26318658

  12. Optimization approach of background value and initial item for improving prediction precision of GM(1,1) model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yuhong Wang; Qin Liu; Jianrong Tang; Wenbin Cao; Xiaozhong Li

    2014-01-01

    A combination method of optimization of the back-ground value and optimization of the initial item is proposed. The sequences of the unbiased exponential distribution are simulated and predicted through the optimization of the background value in grey differential equations. The principle of the new information priority in the grey system theory and the rationality of the initial item in the original GM(1,1) model are ful y expressed through the improvement of the initial item in the proposed time response function. A numerical example is employed to il ustrate that the proposed method is able to simulate and predict sequences of raw data with the unbiased exponential distribution and has better simulation performance and prediction precision than the original GM(1,1) model relatively.

  13. Individualized conditioning regimes in cord blood transplantation: Towards improved and predictable safety and efficacy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Admiraal, R; Boelens, J J

    2016-06-01

    The conditioning regimen used in cord blood transplantation (CBT) may significantly impact the outcomes. Variable pharmacokinetics (PK) of drugs used may further influence outcome. Individualized dosing takes inter-patient differences in PK into account, tailoring drug dose for each individual patient in order to reach optimal exposure. Dose individualization may result in a better predictable regimen in terms of safety and efficacy, including timely T cell reconstitution, which may result in improved survival chances. Conditioning regimens used in CBT varies significantly between and within centres. For busulfan, individualized dosing with therapeutic drug monitoring has resulted in better outcomes. Anti-thymocyte globulin (ATG), used to prevent rejection and GvHD, significantly hampers early T-cell reconstitution (IR). Timely IR is crucial in preventing viral reactivations and relapse. By individudalizing ATG, IR is better predicted and may prevent morbidity and mortality. Individualization of agents used in the conditioning regimen in CBT has proven its added value. Further fine-tuning, including new drugs and/or comprehensive models for all drugs, may result in better predictable conditioning regimens. A predictable conditioning regimen is also of interest/importance when studying adjuvant therapies, including immunotherapies (e.g. cellular vaccines or engineered T-cell) in a harmonized clinical trial design setting.

  14. The role of noise and initial conditions in the asymptotic solution of a bounded confidence, continuous-opinion model

    CERN Document Server

    Carro, Adrian; Miguel, Maxi San

    2012-01-01

    We study a model for continuous-opinion dynamics under bounded confidence. In particular, we analyze the importance of the initial distribution of opinions in determining the asymptotic configuration. Thus, we sketch the structure of attractors of the dynamical system, by means of the numerical computation of the time evolution of the agents density. We show that, for a given bound of confidence, a consensus can be encouraged or prevented by certain initial conditions. Furthermore, a noisy perturbation is added to the system with the purpose of modeling the free will of the agents. As a consequence, the importance of the initial condition is partially replaced by that of the statistical distribution of the noise. Nevertheless, we still find evidence of the influence of the initial state upon the final configuration for a short range of the bound of confidence parameter.

  15. Temporal evolution of tubular initial conditions and their influence on two-particle correlations in relativistic nuclear collisions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andrade, R.P.G. [Instituto de Fisica, Universidade de Sao Paulo (Brazil); Grassi, F., E-mail: grassi@if.usp.br [Instituto de Fisica, Universidade de Sao Paulo (Brazil); Hama, Y. [Instituto de Fisica, Universidade de Sao Paulo (Brazil); Qian, W.-L. [Instituto de Ciencias Exatas, Universidade Federal de Ouro Preto (Brazil)

    2012-06-06

    Relativistic nuclear collisions data on two-particle correlations exhibit structures as function of relative azimuthal angle and rapidity. A unified description of these near-side and away-side structures is proposed for low to moderate transverse momentum. It is based on the combined effect of tubular initial conditions and hydrodynamical expansion. Contrary to expectations, the hydrodynamics solution shows that the high-energy density tubes (leftover from the initial particle interactions) give rise to particle emission in two directions and this is what leads to the various structures. This description is sensitive to some of the initial tube parameters and may provide a probe of the strong interaction. This explanation is compared with an alternative one where some triangularity in the initial conditions is assumed. A possible experimental test is suggested.

  16. A Cluster in the Making: ALMA Reveals the Initial Conditions for High-mass Cluster Formation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rathborne, J. M.; Longmore, S. N.; Jackson, J. M.; Alves, J. F.; Bally, J.; Bastian, N.; Contreras, Y.; Foster, J. B.; Garay, G.; Kruijssen, J. M. D.; Testi, L.; Walsh, A. J.

    2015-04-01

    G0.253+0.016 is a molecular clump that appears to be on the verge of forming a high-mass cluster: its extremely low dust temperature, high mass, and high density, combined with its lack of prevalent star formation, make it an excellent candidate for an Arches-like cluster in a very early stage of formation. Here we present new Atacama Large Millimeter/Sub-millimeter Array observations of its small-scale (∼0.07 pc) 3 mm dust continuum and molecular line emission from 17 different species that probe a range of distinct physical and chemical conditions. The data reveal a complex network of emission features with a complicated velocity structure: there is emission on all spatial scales, the morphology of which ranges from small, compact regions to extended, filamentary structures that are seen in both emission and absorption. The dust column density is well traced by molecules with higher excitation energies and critical densities, consistent with a clump that has a denser interior. A statistical analysis supports the idea that turbulence shapes the observed gas structure within G0.253+0.016. We find a clear break in the turbulent power spectrum derived from the optically thin dust continuum emission at a spatial scale of ∼0.1 pc, which may correspond to the spatial scale at which gravity has overcome the thermal pressure. We suggest that G0.253+0.016 is on the verge of forming a cluster from hierarchical, filamentary structures that arise from a highly turbulent medium. Although the stellar distribution within high-mass Arches-like clusters is compact, centrally condensed, and smooth, the observed gas distribution within G0.253+0.016 is extended, with no high-mass central concentration, and has a complex, hierarchical structure. If this clump gives rise to a high-mass cluster and its stars are formed from this initially hierarchical gas structure, then the resulting cluster must evolve into a centrally condensed structure via a dynamical process.

  17. A CLUSTER IN THE MAKING: ALMA REVEALS THE INITIAL CONDITIONS FOR HIGH-MASS CLUSTER FORMATION

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rathborne, J. M.; Contreras, Y. [CSIRO Astronomy and Space Science, P.O. Box 76, Epping NSW, 1710 (Australia); Longmore, S. N.; Bastian, N. [Astrophysics Research Institute, Liverpool John Moores University, 146 Brownlow Hill, Liverpool L3 5RF (United Kingdom); Jackson, J. M. [Institute for Astrophysical Research, Boston University, Boston, MA 02215 (United States); Alves, J. F. [University of Vienna, Türkenschanzstrasse 17, A-1180 Vienna (Austria); Bally, J. [Center for Astrophysics and Space Astronomy, University of Colorado, UCB 389, Boulder, CO 8030 (United States); Foster, J. B. [Department of Astronomy, Yale University, P.O. Box 208101 New Haven, CT 06520-8101 (United States); Garay, G. [Universidad de Chile, Camino El Observatorio1515, Las Condes, Santiago (Chile); Kruijssen, J. M. D. [Max-Planck Institut fur Astrophysik, Karl-Schwarzschild-Strasse 1, D-85748, Garching (Germany); Testi, L. [European Southern Observatory, Karl-Schwarzschild-Str. 2, D-85748 Garching bei Munchen (Germany); Walsh, A. J., E-mail: Jill.Rathborne@csiro.au [International Centre for Radio Astronomy Research, Curtin University, GPO Box U1987, Perth (Australia)

    2015-04-01

    G0.253+0.016 is a molecular clump that appears to be on the verge of forming a high-mass cluster: its extremely low dust temperature, high mass, and high density, combined with its lack of prevalent star formation, make it an excellent candidate for an Arches-like cluster in a very early stage of formation. Here we present new Atacama Large Millimeter/Sub-millimeter Array observations of its small-scale (∼0.07 pc) 3 mm dust continuum and molecular line emission from 17 different species that probe a range of distinct physical and chemical conditions. The data reveal a complex network of emission features with a complicated velocity structure: there is emission on all spatial scales, the morphology of which ranges from small, compact regions to extended, filamentary structures that are seen in both emission and absorption. The dust column density is well traced by molecules with higher excitation energies and critical densities, consistent with a clump that has a denser interior. A statistical analysis supports the idea that turbulence shapes the observed gas structure within G0.253+0.016. We find a clear break in the turbulent power spectrum derived from the optically thin dust continuum emission at a spatial scale of ∼0.1 pc, which may correspond to the spatial scale at which gravity has overcome the thermal pressure. We suggest that G0.253+0.016 is on the verge of forming a cluster from hierarchical, filamentary structures that arise from a highly turbulent medium. Although the stellar distribution within high-mass Arches-like clusters is compact, centrally condensed, and smooth, the observed gas distribution within G0.253+0.016 is extended, with no high-mass central concentration, and has a complex, hierarchical structure. If this clump gives rise to a high-mass cluster and its stars are formed from this initially hierarchical gas structure, then the resulting cluster must evolve into a centrally condensed structure via a dynamical process.

  18. ATP-P2X7 Receptor Modulates Axon Initial Segment Composition and Function in Physiological Conditions and Brain Injury

    OpenAIRE

    Puerto del Pino, Ana del; Fronzaroli-Molinieres, Laure; Pérez-Álvarez, María José; Giraud, Pierre; Carlier, Edmond; Wandosell, Francisco; Debanne, Dominique; Garrido, Juan José

    2015-01-01

    © 2014 The Author. All rights reserved. Axon properties, including action potential initiation and modulation, depend on both AIS integrity and the regulation of ion channel expression in the AIS. Alteration of the axon initial segment (AIS) has been implicated in neurodegenerative, psychiatric, and brain trauma diseases, thus identification of the physiological mechanisms that regulate the AIS is required to understand and circumvent AIS alterations in pathological conditions. Here, we show ...

  19. Informal workplace learning among nurses: Organisational learning conditions and personal characteristics that predict learning outcomes

    OpenAIRE

    Kyndt, Eva; Vermeire, Eva; Cabus, Shana

    2016-01-01

    Purpose. The current study examines which organisational learning conditions and individual characteristics predict the learning outcomes nurses achieve through informal workplace learning activities. There is specific relevance for the nursing profession because of the rapidly changing healthcare systems. Design/methodology/approach. In total, 203 nurses completed a survey assessing their perception of the available learning conditions, the learning outcomes they acquired by executing the...

  20. Prediction of coal slag foaming under gasification conditions by thermodynamic equilibrium calculations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lim, S.; Oh, M. [Hongik University, Seoul (Republic of Korea). School of Chemical Engineering

    2007-09-15

    In slagging gasifiers, slag foaming can cause serious operational problems, so there is a need for investigation into the conditions causing slag foaming. Viscosity experiments were carried out examining viscosity, extent of swelling and Fe formation. Although extensive swelling was not observed, FeO reduction was observed under an N{sub 2}/CO gas atmosphere, but not under CO{sub 2}/CO. In order to predict FeO reduction conditions in the gasifier, a model for an adiabatic equilibrium gasifier was developed. The gas composition, the amount of gas to slag, and PO{sub 2} were calculated for a slurry-feed gasifier, and the results of the calculation were used to predict the reduction of FeO in slag by using FactSage. Under typical gasification conditions for Denisovsky coal, the predicted -O{sub 2} in the gasifier was not low enough to cause FeO reduction. The FactSage simulation for the viscometer conditions predicted no FeO reduction under a CO/CO{sub 2} atmosphere, but did predict Fe formation under CO/N{sub 2} conditions. At a 20% CO concentration, FeO reduction starts at temperatures above 1,600{sup o}C. Since the slag has a low viscosity at 1,600{sup o}C, the oxygen bubble may have escaped as it formed. Therefore, slag foaming, caused by FeO reduction in the slag, can only occur when the right conditions of viscosity and oxygen partial pressure are met.

  1. The effects of initial conditions and control time on optimal actuator placement via a max-min Genetic Algorithm

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Redmond, J. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Parker, G. [State Univ. of New York, Buffalo, NY (United States)

    1993-07-01

    This paper examines the role of the control objective and the control time in determining fuel-optimal actuator placement for structural vibration suppression. A general theory is developed that can be easily extended to include alternative performance metrics such as energy and time-optimal control. The performance metric defines a convex admissible control set which leads to a max-min optimization problem expressing optimal location as a function of initial conditions and control time. A solution procedure based on a nested Genetic Algorithm is presented and applied to an example problem. Results indicate that the optimal locations vary widely as a function of control time and initial conditions.

  2. Predictive efficacy of the 2014 International Society of Urological Pathology Gleason grading system in initially diagnosed metastatic prostate cancer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Guang-Xi; Shen, Peng-Fei; Zhang, Xing-Ming; Gong, Jing; Gui, Hao-Jun; Shu, Kun-Peng; Liu, Jiang-Dong; Zhao, Jinge; Yang, Yao-Jing; Chen, Xue-Qin; Chen, Ni; Zeng, Hao

    2017-01-01

    We compared the predictive ability of the 2014 and 2005 Gleason grading systems in 568 patients initially diagnosed with metastatic prostate cancer (PCa). Outcomes included the duration of castration-resistant prostate cancer-free survival (CFS) and overall survival (OS). Univariate analyses and log-rank tests were used to identify prognosis indicators and assess univariable differences in CFS and OS in Gleason score (GS) groups. Cox proportional hazards and area under the curves of receiver operator characteristics methods were used to evaluate the predictive efficacy of the 2005 and 2014 ISUP grading systems. Univariate analyses showed that the 2005 and 2014 grading systems were prognosticators for CFS and OS; both systems could distinguish the clinical outcome of patients with GS 6, GS 7, and GS 8–10. Using the 2014 criteria, no statistical differences in patient survival were observed between GS 3 + 4 and GS 4 + 3 or GS 8 and GS 9–10. The predictive ability of the 2014 and 2005 grading systems was comparable for CFS and OS (P = 0.321). However, the 2014 grading system did not exhibit superior predictive efficacy in patients initially diagnosed with PCa and bone metastasis; trials using larger cohorts are required to confirm its predictive value. To the best of our knowledge, ours is the first study to compare the 2005 and 2014 grading systems in initially diagnosed PCa with bone metastasis. At present, we recommend that both systems should be used to predict the prognosis of patients with metastatic PCa. PMID:27569001

  3. Sensitivity of Global Modeling Initiative CTM predictions of Antarctic ozone recovery to GCM and DAS generated meteorological fields

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rotman, D; Bergmann, D

    2003-12-04

    We use the Global Modeling Initiative chemistry and transport model to simulate the evolution of stratospheric ozone between 1995 and 2030, using boundary conditions consistent with the recent World Meteorological Organization ozone assessment. We compare the Antarctic ozone recovery predictions of two simulations, one driven by meteorological data from a general circulation model (GCM), the other using the output of a data assimilation system (DAS), to examine the sensitivity of Antarctic ozone recovery predictions to the characteristic dynamical differences between GCM and DAS-generated meteorological data. Although the age of air in the Antarctic lower stratosphere differs by a factor of 2 between the simulations, we find little sensitivity of the 1995-2030 Antarctic ozone recovery between 350 K and 650 K to the differing meteorological fields, particularly when the recovery is specified in mixing ratio units. Relative changes are smaller in the DAS-driven simulation compared to the GCM-driven simulation due to a surplus of Antarctic ozone in the DAS-driven simulation which is not consistent with observations. The peak ozone change between 1995 and 2030 in both simulations is {approx}20% lower than photochemical expectations, indicating that changes in ozone transport at 450 K between 1995 and 2030 constitute a small negative feedback. Total winter/spring ozone loss during the base year (1995) of both simulations and the rate of ozone loss during August and September is somewhat weaker than observed. This appears to be due to underestimates of Antarctic Cl{sub y} at the 450 K potential temperature level.

  4. Mindfulness meditation modulates reward prediction errors in the striatum in a passive conditioning task

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ulrich eKirk

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Reinforcement learning models have demonstrated that phasic activity of dopamine neurons during reward expectation encodes information about the predictability of rewards and cues that predict reward. Evidence indicates that mindfulness-based approaches reduce reward anticipation signal in the striatum to negative and positive incentives suggesting the hypothesis that such training influence basic reward processing. Using a passive conditioning task and fMRI in a group of experienced mindfulness meditators and age-matched controls, we tested the hypothesis that mindfulness meditation influence reward and reward prediction error signals. We found diminished positive and negative prediction error-related blood-oxygen level-dependent (BOLD responses in the putamen in meditators compared with controls. In the meditators, this decrease in striatal BOLD responses to reward prediction was paralleled by increased activity in posterior insula, a primary interoceptive region. Critically, responses in the putamen during early trials of the conditioning procedure (run 1 were elevated in both meditators and controls. These results provide evidence that experienced mindfulness meditators show attenuated reward prediction signals to valenced stimuli, which may be related to interoceptive processes encoded in the posterior insula.

  5. Critical appraisal of clinical prediction rules that aim to optimize treatment selection for musculoskeletal conditions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    T.R. Stanton (Tasha); M.J. Hancock (Mark J.); C. Maher (Chris); B.W. Koes (Bart)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractBackground. Clinical prediction rules (CPRs) for treatment selection in musculoskeletal conditions have become increasingly popular. Purpose. The purposes of this review are: (1) to critically appraise studies evaluating CPRs and (2) to consider the clinical utility and stage of developm

  6. The ability of flux balance analysis to predict evolution of central metabolism scales with the initial distance to the optimum.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    William R Harcombe

    Full Text Available The most powerful genome-scale framework to model metabolism, flux balance analysis (FBA, is an evolutionary optimality model. It hypothesizes selection upon a proposed optimality criterion in order to predict the set of internal fluxes that would maximize fitness. Here we present a direct test of the optimality assumption underlying FBA by comparing the central metabolic fluxes predicted by multiple criteria to changes measurable by a (13C-labeling method for experimentally-evolved strains. We considered datasets for three Escherichia coli evolution experiments that varied in their length, consistency of environment, and initial optimality. For ten populations that were evolved for 50,000 generations in glucose minimal medium, we observed modest changes in relative fluxes that led to small, but significant decreases in optimality and increased the distance to the predicted optimal flux distribution. In contrast, seven populations evolved on the poor substrate lactate for 900 generations collectively became more optimal and had flux distributions that moved toward predictions. For three pairs of central metabolic knockouts evolved on glucose for 600-800 generations, there was a balance between cases where optimality and flux patterns moved toward or away from FBA predictions. Despite this variation in predictability of changes in central metabolism, two generalities emerged. First, improved growth largely derived from evolved increases in the rate of substrate use. Second, FBA predictions bore out well for the two experiments initiated with ancestors with relatively sub-optimal yield, whereas those begun already quite optimal tended to move somewhat away from predictions. These findings suggest that the tradeoff between rate and yield is surprisingly modest. The observed positive correlation between rate and yield when adaptation initiated further from the optimum resulted in the ability of FBA to use stoichiometric constraints to predict the

  7. A new model for the life prediction of GH4133 under TMF conditions

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2002-01-01

    Thermal mechanical cyclic strain tests were carried out under in-phase and out-of-phase conditions on a Nickel-base Superalloy GH4133 in the temperature range of 571-823℃. Based on analyzing the present models of TMF (thermal mechanical fatigue) life prediction, a new model for predicting nickel-base superalloy TMF lifetime was proposed.TMF life of superalloy GH4133 was calculated accurately based on the new model. Experimental TMF life has been compared with the calculatedresults and all results fall in the scatter band of 1.5. The calculating results show that the new model is not only simple, but also precise. This model will play great roles in life prediction of the metal materials and the engineering components subjected to non-isothermal service conditions.

  8. EXPERIMENTS ON ASSIMILATION OF INITIAL VALUES IN NUMERICAL PREDICTION OF A WARM-SECTOR PRECIPITATION IN SOUTH CHINA

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHANG Cheng-zhong; WAN Qi-lin; HUANG Yan-yan; CHEN Zi-tong; DING Wei-yu

    2009-01-01

    In order to understand the impact of initial conditions upon prediction accuracy of short-term forecast and nowcast of precipitation in South China,four experiments i.e. a control,an assimilation of conventional sounding and surthce data,testing with nudging rainwater data and the assimilation of radar-derived radial wind,are respectively conducted to simulate a case of warm-sector heavy rainfall that occurred over South China,by using the GRAPES MESO model. The results show that (I) assimilating conventional surface and sounding observations helps improve the 24-h rainfall forecast in both the area and order of magnitude; (2) nudging rainwater contributes to a significant improvement of nowcast,and (3)the assimilation of radar-derived radial winds distinctly improves the 24-h rainfall forecast in both the area and order of magnitude. These results serve as signiticant technical reference for the study on short-term forecast and nowcast of precipitation over South China in the thture.

  9. Literature-based condition-specific miRNA-mRNA target prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oh, Minsik; Rhee, Sungmin; Moon, Ji Hwan; Chae, Heejoon; Lee, Sunwon; Kang, Jaewoo; Kim, Sun

    2017-01-01

    miRNAs are small non-coding RNAs that regulate gene expression by binding to the 3'-UTR of genes. Many recent studies have reported that miRNAs play important biological roles by regulating specific mRNAs or genes. Many sequence-based target prediction algorithms have been developed to predict miRNA targets. However, these methods are not designed for condition-specific target predictions and produce many false positives; thus, expression-based target prediction algorithms have been developed for condition-specific target predictions. A typical strategy to utilize expression data is to leverage the negative control roles of miRNAs on genes. To control false positives, a stringent cutoff value is typically set, but in this case, these methods tend to reject many true target relationships, i.e., false negatives. To overcome these limitations, additional information should be utilized. The literature is probably the best resource that we can utilize. Recent literature mining systems compile millions of articles with experiments designed for specific biological questions, and the systems provide a function to search for specific information. To utilize the literature information, we used a literature mining system, BEST, that automatically extracts information from the literature in PubMed and that allows the user to perform searches of the literature with any English words. By integrating omics data analysis methods and BEST, we developed Context-MMIA, a miRNA-mRNA target prediction method that combines expression data analysis results and the literature information extracted based on the user-specified context. In the pathway enrichment analysis using genes included in the top 200 miRNA-targets, Context-MMIA outperformed the four existing target prediction methods that we tested. In another test on whether prediction methods can re-produce experimentally validated target relationships, Context-MMIA outperformed the four existing target prediction methods. In summary

  10. Literature-based condition-specific miRNA-mRNA target prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oh, Minsik; Rhee, Sungmin; Moon, Ji Hwan; Chae, Heejoon; Lee, Sunwon; Kang, Jaewoo; Kim, Sun

    2017-01-01

    miRNAs are small non-coding RNAs that regulate gene expression by binding to the 3′-UTR of genes. Many recent studies have reported that miRNAs play important biological roles by regulating specific mRNAs or genes. Many sequence-based target prediction algorithms have been developed to predict miRNA targets. However, these methods are not designed for condition-specific target predictions and produce many false positives; thus, expression-based target prediction algorithms have been developed for condition-specific target predictions. A typical strategy to utilize expression data is to leverage the negative control roles of miRNAs on genes. To control false positives, a stringent cutoff value is typically set, but in this case, these methods tend to reject many true target relationships, i.e., false negatives. To overcome these limitations, additional information should be utilized. The literature is probably the best resource that we can utilize. Recent literature mining systems compile millions of articles with experiments designed for specific biological questions, and the systems provide a function to search for specific information. To utilize the literature information, we used a literature mining system, BEST, that automatically extracts information from the literature in PubMed and that allows the user to perform searches of the literature with any English words. By integrating omics data analysis methods and BEST, we developed Context-MMIA, a miRNA-mRNA target prediction method that combines expression data analysis results and the literature information extracted based on the user-specified context. In the pathway enrichment analysis using genes included in the top 200 miRNA-targets, Context-MMIA outperformed the four existing target prediction methods that we tested. In another test on whether prediction methods can re-produce experimentally validated target relationships, Context-MMIA outperformed the four existing target prediction methods. In

  11. [Development of a predictive program for microbial growth under various temperature conditions].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fujikawa, Hiroshi; Yano, Kazuyoshi; Morozumi, Satoshi; Kimura, Bon; Fujii, Tateo

    2006-12-01

    A predictive program for microbial growth under various temperature conditions was developed with a mathematical model. The model was a new logistic model recently developed by us. The program predicts Escherichia coli growth in broth, Staphylococcus aureus growth and its enterotoxin production in milk, and Vibrio parahaemolyticus growth in broth at various temperature patterns. The program, which was built with Microsoft Excel (Visual Basic Application), is user-friendly; users can easily input the temperature history of a test food and obtain the prediction instantly on the computer screen. The predicted growth and toxin production can be important indices to determine whether a food is microbiologically safe or not. This program should be a useful tool to confirm the microbial safety of commercial foods.

  12. Impact of initial and boundary conditions on regional winter climate over the Western Himalayas: A fixed domain size experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maharana, P.; Dimri, A. P.

    2014-03-01

    The Western Himalayas during winter receives precipitation due to the eastward moving low pressure synoptic weather systems, called Western Disturbances (WDs) in Indian meteorological parlance. The complex Himalayan topography, sparse observational data, less understanding of physical processes, etc. form many interesting research questions over this region. One of the important research goals is to study the change in the winter (Dec., Jan. and Feb. - DJF) climate over the Himalayas. In the presented study with modelling efforts having varying initial and boundary conditions (ICBC) with same model physics option is attempted to provide a comment on important physical processes pertaining to precipitation and temperature fields. A 22 year (1980-2001) simulation with Regional Climate Model version 3 (RegCM3) forced with National Centre for Environmental Prediction/National Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis 1 (NNRP1), NCEP/NCAR reanalysis 2 (NNRP2) and European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast 40 Year reanalysis (ERA40) as three different ICBC is carried out. The present study focuses on the winter climatology of the main meteorological parameters viz., temperature, precipitation and snow depth and interannual variability of winter seasonal precipitation. The model shows overestimation of seasonal average precipitation and underestimation of seasonal average temperature fields over the Western Himalayas in all the three model simulations. The interannual variability of precipitation and temperature over this region is nicely captured by the model. The model simulation with NNRP2 as the ICBC shows more realistic results. In addition the ensemble mean of the three simulations has shown improved results and is closer to the abovementioned simulation. Precipitation bias explained in terms of the higher vertical integrated moisture flux and transport shows strong convergence zone over and along the southern rim of the Indian Himalayas. The

  13. Sensitive versus Rough Dependence under Initial Conditions in Atmospheric Flow Regimes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anthony R. Lupo

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available In this work, we will identify the existence of “rough dependence on initial conditions” in atmospheric phenomena, a concept which is a problem for weather analysis and forecasting. Typically, two initially similar atmospheric states will diverge slowly over time such that forecasting the weather using the Navier-Stokes equations is useless after some characteristic time scale. With rough dependence, two initial states diverge very quickly, implying forecasting may be impossible. Using previous research in atmospheric science, rough dependence is characterized by using quantities that can be calculated using atmospheric data and quantities. Rough dependence will be tested for and identified in atmospheric phenomena at different time scales using case studies. Data were provided for this project by archives outside the University of Missouri (MU and by using the MU RADAR at the South Farm experiment station.

  14. Observables and initial conditions for rotating and expanding fireballs with spheroidal symmetry

    CERN Document Server

    Csorgo, T; Barna, I F

    2015-01-01

    Utilizing a recently found class of exact, analytic rotating solutions of non-relativistic fireball hydrodynamics, we calculate analytically the single-particle spectra, the elliptic flows and two-particle Bose-Einstein correlation functions for rotating and expanding fireballs with spheroidal symmetry. We demonstrate, that rotation generates final state momentum anisotropies even for a spatially symmetric, spherical initial geometry of the fireball. The mass dependence of the effective temperatures, as well as the HBT radius parameters and the elliptic flow are shown to be sensitive not only to radial flow effects but also to the magnitude of the initial angular momentum.

  15. Estimation and Prediction of the Condition of the Vehicle Engine Based on the Correlation Dimension

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LiuChun; ZhangLaibin; WangZhaohui

    2004-01-01

    This paper applies the fractal dimension as a characteristic to describe the engine's operating condition and its developmental trend. A correlation dimension is one of the quantities that are usually used to characterize a strange attractor. With the operation of the phase space reconstruction, respective correlation dimensions of a series of vibration signals obtained under different conditions are calculated to find the intrinsic relationship between the indicator and the operating condition. The experiment result shows that the correlation dimension is sensitive to the condition evolution and convenient for the identification of abnormal operational states. In advanced prognostic algorithm based on the BP neural network is then applied on the correlation dimensions to predict the short-term running conditions in order to avoid severe faults and realize in-time maintenance. Experimental results are presented to illustrate the proposed methodology.

  16. What Variables Condition Syntactic Transfer? A Look at the L3 Initial State

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rothman, Jason; Cabrelli Amaro, Jennifer

    2010-01-01

    This study investigates transfer at the third-language (L3) initial state, testing between the following possibilities: (1) the first language (L1) transfer hypothesis (an L1 effect for all adult acquisition), (2) the second language (L2) transfer hypothesis, where the L2 blocks L1 transfer (often referred to in the recent literature as the "L2…

  17. Features of the development of round jets for different initial conditions and in the presence of obstacles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kozlov, V. V.; Litvinenko, M. V.; Litvinenko, Yu. A.; Kozlov, G. V.

    2016-10-01

    The goal of this work is an experimental study of the influence of the initial conditions (nozzle configuration, mean velocity profile at the nozzle exit, surface roughness, and jet diameter) on the flow structure in a round jet by various methods: hot-wire anemometry, smoke visualization, and particle image velocimetry (PIV).

  18. Efficient Procedure to Compute the Microcanonical Volume of Initial Conditions that Lead to Escape Trajectories from a Multidimensional Potential Well

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Waalkens, Holger; Burbanks, Andrew; Wiggins, Stephen

    2005-01-01

    A procedure is presented for computing the phase space volume of initial conditions for trajectories that escape or ‘‘react’’ from a multidimensional potential well. The procedure combines a phase space transition state theory, which allows one to construct dividing surfaces that are free of local r

  19. Star Formation at Very Low Metallicity. IV. Fragmentation does not depend on metallicity for cold initial conditions

    CERN Document Server

    Jappsen, Anne-Katharina; Glover, Simon C O; Mac Low, Mordecai-Mark

    2007-01-01

    Primordial star formation appears to result in stars at least an order of magnitude more massive than modern star formation. Bromm et al. proposed that the transition from primordial to modern initial mass functions occurs due to the onset of effective metal line cooling at a metallicity Z/Z_sun = 10^{-3.5}. However, their simulations neglected molecular cooling. We here perform simulations using the same initial conditions, but including molecular cooling, using both a simplified chemical network that primarily follows molecular hydrogen formation, and a more complex network that also directly follows carbon monoxide and water. We find in both cases that molecular cooling allows roughly equivalent fragmentation to proceed even at zero metallicity for the Bromm et al. initial conditions. The apparent transition just represents the point where metal line cooling becomes more important than molecular cooling. In all cases, the fragments are massive enough to be consistent with models of primordial stellar masse...

  20. Ethylene Decomposition Initiated by Ultraviolet Radiation from Low Pressure Mercury Lamps: Kinetics Model Prediction and Experimental Verification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jozwiak, Zbigniew Boguslaw

    1995-01-01

    Ethylene is an important auto-catalytic plant growth hormone. Removal of ethylene from the atmosphere surrounding ethylene-sensitive horticultural products may be very beneficial, allowing an extended period of storage and preventing or delaying the induction of disorders. Various ethylene removal techniques have been studied and put into practice. One technique is based on using low pressure mercury ultraviolet lamps as a source of photochemical energy to initiate chemical reactions that destroy ethylene. Although previous research showed that ethylene disappeared in experiments with mercury ultraviolet lamps, the reactions were not described and the actual cause of ethylene disappearance remained unknown. Proposed causes for this disappearance were the direct action of ultraviolet rays on ethylene, reaction of ethylene with ozone (which is formed when air or gas containing molecular oxygen is exposed to radiation emitted by this type of lamp), or reactions with atomic oxygen leading to formation of ozone. The objective of the present study was to determine the set of physical and chemical actions leading to the disappearance of ethylene from artificial storage atmosphere under conditions of ultraviolet irradiation. The goal was achieved by developing a static chemical model based on the physical properties of a commercially available ultraviolet lamp, the photochemistry of gases, and the kinetics of chemical reactions. The model was used to perform computer simulations predicting time dependent concentrations of chemical species included in the model. Development of the model was accompanied by the design of a reaction chamber used for experimental verification. The model provided a good prediction of the general behavior of the species involved in the chemistry under consideration; however the model predicted lower than measured rate of ethylene disappearance. Some reasons for the model -experiment disagreement are radiation intensity averaging, the experimental

  1. Investigation into Improving Predictions of Channel Morphology: Scale Invariance Conditions of the One-Dimension Non-Equilibrium Bedload Transport Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carr, K. J.; Ercan, A.; Kavvas, M. L.

    2016-12-01

    While bedload is commonly accepted as contributing only 5 to 10% of the total sediment load in a stream, it is pivotal in describing channel morphology. Because bedload (rolling, sliding and saltating particles) often dominates bed-material load (the portion of the sediment load that interacts with the bed) accurate representations of bedload are central to understanding and predicting changes in channel shape and direction. Channel morphology can be effected by a variety of anthropogenic factors, some of which are acute and planned (hydraulic structures, diversions, restoration efforts). Physical scale modeling of proposed changes could serve to predict morphological consequences, and could compliment numerical modeling of the same, if scale errors are reduced. It is proposed that scale errors could be reduced through identification of the conditions under which non-equilibrium bedload sediment transport is self-similar and scale invariant. These conditions are investigated through application of the one-parameter Lie group of point scaling transformations to the one-dimensional non-equilibrium bedload transport process. Self-similarity conditions imposed due to initial and boundary conditions are also examined. The proposed scaling approach identifies the self-similarity conditions due to the initial and boundary conditions of the corresponding initial and boundary value problem, along with those due to the governing equations, thus expanding scaling of transport to unsteady non-equilibrium conditions.

  2. PreTIS: A Tool to Predict Non-canonical 5’ UTR Translational Initiation Sites in Human and Mouse

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reuter, Kerstin; Helms, Volkhard

    2016-01-01

    Translation of mRNA sequences into proteins typically starts at an AUG triplet. In rare cases, translation may also start at alternative non–AUG codons located in the annotated 5’ UTR which leads to an increased regulatory complexity. Since ribosome profiling detects translational start sites at the nucleotide level, the properties of these start sites can then be used for the statistical evaluation of functional open reading frames. We developed a linear regression approach to predict in–frame and out–of–frame translational start sites within the 5’ UTR from mRNA sequence information together with their translation initiation confidence. Predicted start codons comprise AUG as well as near–cognate codons. The underlying datasets are based on published translational start sites for human HEK293 and mouse embryonic stem cells that were derived by the original authors from ribosome profiling data. The average prediction accuracy of true vs. false start sites for HEK293 cells was 80%. When applied to mouse mRNA sequences, the same model predicted translation initiation sites observed in mouse ES cells with an accuracy of 76%. Moreover, we illustrate the effect of in silico mutations in the flanking sequence context of a start site on the predicted initiation confidence. Our new webservice PreTIS visualizes alternative start sites and their respective ORFs and predicts their ability to initiate translation. Solely, the mRNA sequence is required as input. PreTIS is accessible at http://service.bioinformatik.uni-saarland.de/pretis. PMID:27768687

  3. The heat equation source determination for the case of non-smooth boundary and initial conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solovi’ev, V. V.; Tkachenko, D. S.

    2017-01-01

    An inverse problem of reconstructing the source of a special kind for parabolic equations in a bounded region with smooth boundary is considered. Solutions are sought in the Holder classes. We prove an uniqueness criterion for the solution and sufficient conditions of Fredholm property of the task at hand. As a consequence of the sufficient conditions for existence and uniqueness of solution of the inhomogeneous inverse problems are found.

  4. On Initial Conditions for a Boundary Stabilized Hybrid Euler–Bernoulli Beam

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Sujit K Bose

    2001-08-01

    We consider here small flexural vibrations of an Euler–Bernoulli beam with a lumped mass at one end subject to viscous damping force while the other end is free and the system is set to motion with initial displacement 0() and initial velocity 1(). By investigating the evolution of the motion by Laplace transform, it is proved (in dimensionless units of length and time) that $$\\int_0^1 y_{xt}^2 dx ≤ \\int_0^1 y_{xx}^2 dx, \\quad t>t_0,$$ where 0 may be sufficiently large, provided that {0, 1} satisfy very general restrictions stated in the concluding theorem. This supplies the restrictions for uniform exponential energy decay for stabilization of the beam considered in a recent paper.

  5. Positive solutions of some parabolic system with cross-diffusion and nonlocal initial conditions

    CERN Document Server

    Walker, Christoph

    2010-01-01

    The paper is concerned with a system consisting of two coupled nonlinear parabolic equations with a cross-diffusion term, where the solutions at positive times define the initial states. The equations arise as steady state equations of an age-structured predator-prey system with spatial dispersion. Based on unilateral global bifurcation methods for Fredholm operators and on maximal regularity for parabolic equations, global bifurcation of positive solutions is derived.

  6. Initial conditions for hydrodynamics from weakly coupled pre-equilibrium evolution

    CERN Document Server

    Keegan, Liam; Mazeliauskas, Aleksas; Teaney, Derek

    2016-01-01

    We use effective kinetic theory, accurate at weak coupling, to simulate the pre-equilibrium evolution of transverse energy and flow perturbations in heavy-ion collisions. We provide a Green function which propagates the initial perturbations to the energy-momentum tensor at a time when hydrodynamics becomes applicable. With this map, the complete pre-thermal evolution from saturated nuclei to hydrodynamics can be modelled in a perturbatively controlled way.

  7. Prediction suppression in monkey inferotemporal cortex depends on the conditional probability between images.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramachandran, Suchitra; Meyer, Travis; Olson, Carl R

    2016-01-01

    When monkeys view two images in fixed sequence repeatedly over days and weeks, neurons in area TE of the inferotemporal cortex come to exhibit prediction suppression. The trailing image elicits only a weak response when presented following the leading image that preceded it during training. Induction of prediction suppression might depend either on the contiguity of the images, as determined by their co-occurrence and captured in the measure of joint probability P(A,B), or on their contingency, as determined by their correlation and as captured in the measures of conditional probability P(A|B) and P(B|A). To distinguish between these possibilities, we measured prediction suppression after imposing training regimens that held P(A,B) constant but varied P(A|B) and P(B|A). We found that reducing either P(A|B) or P(B|A) during training attenuated prediction suppression as measured during subsequent testing. We conclude that prediction suppression depends on contingency, as embodied in the predictive relations between the images, and not just on contiguity, as embodied in their co-occurrence.

  8. Far-from-equilibrium initial conditions probed by a nonlocal observable

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shahkarami, L.; Ebrahim, H.; Ali-Akbari, M.; Charmchi, F.

    2017-10-01

    Using the gauge/gravity duality, we investigate the evolution of an out-of-equilibrium strongly-coupled plasma from the viewpoint of the two-point function of scalar gauge-invariant operators with large conformal dimension. This system is out of equilibrium due to the presence of anisotropy and/or a massive scalar field. Considering various functions for the initial anisotropy and scalar field, we conclude that the effect of the anisotropy on the evolution of the two-point function is considerably more than the effect of the scalar field. We also show that the ordering of the equilibration time of the one-point function for the non-probe scalar field and the correlation function between two points with a fixed separation can be reversed by changing the initial configuration of the plasma, when the system is out of the equilibrium due to the presence of at least two different sources like our problem. In addition, we find the equilibration time of the two-point function to be linearly increasing with respect to the separation of the two points with a fixed slope, regardless of the initial configuration that we start with. Finally we observe that, for larger separations the geodesic connecting two points on the boundary crosses the event horizon after it has reached its final equilibrium value, meaning that the two-point function can probe behind the event horizon.

  9. Efficiency of neural network-based combinatorial model predicting optimal culture conditions for maximum biomass yields in hairy root cultures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehrotra, Shakti; Prakash, O; Khan, Feroz; Kukreja, A K

    2013-02-01

    KEY MESSAGE : ANN-based combinatorial model is proposed and its efficiency is assessed for the prediction of optimal culture conditions to achieve maximum productivity in a bioprocess in terms of high biomass. A neural network approach is utilized in combination with Hidden Markov concept to assess the optimal values of different environmental factors that result in maximum biomass productivity of cultured tissues after definite culture duration. Five hidden Markov models (HMMs) were derived for five test culture conditions, i.e. pH of liquid growth medium, volume of medium per culture vessel, sucrose concentration (%w/v) in growth medium, nitrate concentration (g/l) in the medium and finally the density of initial inoculum (g fresh weight) per culture vessel and their corresponding fresh weight biomass. The artificial neural network (ANN) model was represented as the function of these five Markov models, and the overall simulation of fresh weight biomass was done with this combinatorial ANN-HMM. The empirical results of Rauwolfia serpentina hairy roots were taken as model and compared with simulated results obtained from pure ANN and ANN-HMMs. The stochastic testing and Cronbach's α-value of pure and combinatorial model revealed more internal consistency and skewed character (0.4635) in histogram of ANN-HMM compared to pure ANN (0.3804). The simulated results for optimal conditions of maximum fresh weight production obtained from ANN-HMM and ANN model closely resemble the experimentally optimized culture conditions based on which highest fresh weight was obtained. However, only 2.99 % deviation from the experimental values could be observed in the values obtained from combinatorial model when compared to the pure ANN model (5.44 %). This comparison showed 45 % better potential of combinatorial model for the prediction of optimal culture conditions for the best growth of hairy root cultures.

  10. Adaptation and Diversification of an RNA Replication System under Initiation- or Termination-Impaired Translational Conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mizuuchi, Ryo; Ichihashi, Norikazu; Yomo, Tetsuya

    2016-07-01

    Adaptation to various environments is a remarkable characteristic of life. Is this limited to extant complex living organisms, or is it also possible for a simpler self-replication system to adapt? In this study, we addressed this question by using a translation-coupled RNA replication system that comprised a reconstituted translation system and an RNA "genome" that encoded a replicase gene. We performed RNA replication reactions under four conditions, under which different components of translation were partly inhibited. We found that replication efficiency increased with the number of rounds of replication under all the tested conditions. The types of dominant mutations differed depending on the condition, thus indicating that this simple system adapted to different environments in different ways. This suggests that even a primitive self-replication system composed of a small number of genes on the early earth could have had the ability to adapt to various environments.

  11. The Initial Mass and Size Distribution of Planetesimals. I. The Effect of Resolution, Gravity, and Initial Conditions in Streaming Instability Calculations

    CERN Document Server

    Simon, Jacob B; Li, Rixin; Youdin, Andrew N

    2015-01-01

    We study the formation of planetesimals in protoplanetary disks from the gravitational collapse of solid over-densities generated via the streaming instability. To carry out these studies, we implement and test a particle-mesh self-gravity module for the Athena code that enables the simulation of aerodynamically coupled systems of gas and collisionless self-gravitating solid particles. Upon employment of our algorithm to planetesimal formation simulations, we find that (when a direct comparison is possible) the Athena simulations yield predicted planetesimal properties that agree well with those found in prior work using different numerical techniques. In particular, the gravitational collapse of streaming-initiated clumps leads to an initial planetesimal mass function that is well-represented by a power-law, dN/dM ~ M^(-p),with p = 1.6 +/- 0.1. We find no significant trends with resolution from a convergence study of up to 512^3 grid zones and N_par ~ 1.5x10^8 particles. Likewise, the power-law slope appears...

  12. Prediction of Gas Hydrate Formation Conditions in Aqueous Solutions of Single and Mixed Electrolytes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zuo, You-Xiang; Stenby, Erling Halfdan

    1997-01-01

    In this paper, the extended Patel-Teja equation of state was modified to describe non-ideality of the liquid phase containing water and electrolytes accurately. The modified Patel-Teja equation of state (MPT EOS) was utilized to develop a predictive method for gas hydrate equilibria. The new method...... employs the Barkan and Sheinin hydrate model for the description of the hydrate phase, the original Patel-Teja equation of state for the vapor phase fugacities, and the MPT EOS (instead of the activity coefficient model) for the activity of water in the aqueous phase. The new method has succesfully...... predicted the gas hydrate formation conditions in aqueous solutions of single and mixed electrolytes. The agreement between experimental data and predictions was found to be excellent....

  13. Prediction of Gas Hydrate Formation Conditions in Aqueous Solutions of Single and Mixed Electrolytes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zuo, You-Xiang; Stenby, Erling Halfdan

    1997-01-01

    In this paper, the extended Patel-Teja equation of state was modified to describe non-ideality of the liquid phase containing water and electrolytes accurately. The modified Patel-Teja equation of state (MPT EOS) was utilized to develop a predictive method for gas hydrate equilibria. The new method...... employs the Barkan and Sheinin hydrate model for the description of the hydrate phase, the original Patel-Teja equation of state for the vapor phase fugacities, and the MPT EOS (instead of the activity coefficient model) for the activity of water in the aqueous phase. The new method has succesfully...... predicted the gas hydrate formation conditions in aqueous solutions of single and mixed electrolytes. The agreement between experimental data and predictions was found to be excellent....

  14. Lubrication Oil Condition Monitoring and Remaining Useful Life Prediction With Particle Filtering

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yongzhi Qu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to reduce the costs of wind energy, it is necessary to improve the wind turbine availability and reduce the operational and maintenance costs. The reliability and availability of a functioning wind turbine depend largely on the protective properties of the lubrication oil for its drive train subassemblies such as gearbox and means for lubrication oil condition monitoring and degradation detection. The wind industry currently uses lubrication oil analysis for detecting gearbox and bearing wear but cannot detect the functional failures of the lubrication oils. The main purpose of lubrication oil condition monitoring and degradation detection is to determine whether the oils have deteriorated to such a degree that they no longer fulfill their functions. This paper describes a research on developing online lubrication oil health condition monitoring and remaining useful life prediction with particle filtering technique using commercially available online sensors. The paper first presents a survey on current state-of-the-art online lubrication oil condition monitoring solutions and their characteristics along with the classification and evaluation of each technique. It is then followed by an investigation on wind turbine gearbox lubrication oil health condition monitoring and degradation detection using online viscosity and dielectric constant sensors. In particular, the lubricant performance evaluation and remaining useful life prediction of degraded lubrication oil with viscosity and dielectric constant data using particle filtering are presented. A simulation case study is provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of the developed technique.

  15. Can multivariate models based on MOAKS predict OA knee pain? Data from the Osteoarthritis Initiative

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luna-Gómez, Carlos D.; Zanella-Calzada, Laura A.; Galván-Tejada, Jorge I.; Galván-Tejada, Carlos E.; Celaya-Padilla, José M.

    2017-03-01

    Osteoarthritis is the most common rheumatic disease in the world. Knee pain is the most disabling symptom in the disease, the prediction of pain is one of the targets in preventive medicine, this can be applied to new therapies or treatments. Using the magnetic resonance imaging and the grading scales, a multivariate model based on genetic algorithms is presented. Using a predictive model can be useful to associate minor structure changes in the joint with the future knee pain. Results suggest that multivariate models can be predictive with future knee chronic pain. All models; T0, T1 and T2, were statistically significant, all p values were 0.60.

  16. The adjoint sensitivity of heavy rainfall to initial conditions in debris flow areas in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Feifan

    2017-04-01

    By studying three heavy rainfall events that were accompanied by debris flows in southwestern China, we find that 24-h accumulated rainfall is most sensitive to the initial temperature. The sensitivities to wind, surface pressure, and specific humidity are generally smaller. Moreover, the upper levels of the atmosphere are identified as the sensitive levels, and the sensitive areas are the areas with heavy rainfall. These results suggest that local temperature perturbations in the upper levels are a signal of short-term heavy rainfall in southwestern China. A validation experiment is carried out to justify the sensitivity results. The possible reasons are discussed and analyzed.

  17. A study of fuel behavior under reactivity initiated accident conditions — review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ishikawa, Michio; Shiozawa, Shusaku

    1980-11-01

    Results obtained in the 400 tests performed to simulate reactivity initiated accidents since 1975 in the Japanese Nuclear Safety Research Reactor, are described. Tests included the effects of cooling environment, defective fuel elements, fuel design parameters, the behaviour of fuel elements for various reactor types, all done for a wide range of energy deposition. Four types of basic fuel failure mechanisms have been established, and are discussed in detail: cladding melt failure, UO 2 melt failure, high temperature burst failure and low temperature burst failure. Future test plans up to 1990 are out-lined and features requiring particular attention are pointed out.

  18. Computational ecotoxicology: simultaneous prediction of ecotoxic effects of nanoparticles under different experimental conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kleandrova, Valeria V; Luan, Feng; González-Díaz, Humberto; Ruso, Juan M; Melo, André; Speck-Planche, Alejandro; Cordeiro, M Natália D S

    2014-12-01

    Nanotechnology has brought great advances to many fields of modern science. A manifold of applications of nanoparticles have been found due to their interesting optical, electrical, and biological/chemical properties. However, the potential toxic effects of nanoparticles to different ecosystems are of special concern nowadays. Despite the efforts of the scientific community, the mechanisms of toxicity of nanoparticles are still poorly understood. Quantitative-structure activity/toxicity relationships (QSAR/QSTR) models have just started being useful computational tools for the assessment of toxic effects of nanomaterials. But most QSAR/QSTR models have been applied so far to predict ecotoxicity against only one organism/bio-indicator such as Daphnia magna. This prevents having a deeper knowledge about the real ecotoxic effects of nanoparticles, and consequently, there is no possibility to establish an efficient risk assessment of nanomaterials in the environment. In this work, a perturbation model for nano-QSAR problems is introduced with the aim of simultaneously predicting the ecotoxicity of different nanoparticles against several assay organisms (bio-indicators), by considering also multiple measures of ecotoxicity, as well as the chemical compositions, sizes, conditions under which the sizes were measured, shapes, and the time during which the diverse assay organisms were exposed to nanoparticles. The QSAR-perturbation model was derived from a database containing 5520 cases (nanoparticle-nanoparticle pairs), and it was shown to exhibit accuracies of ca. 99% in both training and prediction sets. In order to demonstrate the practical applicability of our model, three different nickel-based nanoparticles (Ni) with experimental values reported in the literature were predicted. The predictions were found to be in very good agreement with the experimental evidences, confirming that Ni-nanoparticles are not ecotoxic when compared with other nanoparticles. The results

  19. Existence and Uniqueness of BV Solutions for a Class of Degenerate Boltzmann Equations with Measures as Initial Conditions

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YUAN Hongjun; YAN Han

    2009-01-01

    The existence and uniqueness of the solutions for the Boltzmann equations with measures as initial value are still an open problem which is posed by P. L. Lions (2000). The aim of this paper is to discuss the Cauchy problem of the system of discrete Boltzmann equations of the form etf∫i+(∫mii)x=Qi(∫1,∫2,…,∫n), (mi1, i=1,…,n) with non-negative finite Radon measures as initial conditions. In particular, the existence and uniqueness of BV solutions for the above problem are obtained.

  20. Turbulence Sets the Initial Conditions for Star Formation in High-pressure Environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rathborne, J. M.; Longmore, S. N.; Jackson, J. M.; Kruijssen, J. M. D.; Alves, J. F.; Bally, J.; Bastian, N.; Contreras, Y.; Foster, J. B.; Garay, G.; Testi, L.; Walsh, A. J.

    2014-11-01

    Despite the simplicity of theoretical models of supersonically turbulent, isothermal media, their predictions successfully match the observed gas structure and star formation activity within low-pressure (P/k 107 K cm-3) environments, like those in the Galaxy's inner 200 pc central molecular zone (CMZ) and in the early universe. Here, we present Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array 3 mm dust continuum emission within a cloud, G0.253+0.016, which is immersed in the high-pressure environment of the CMZ. While the log-normal shape and dispersion of its column density probability distribution function (PDF) are strikingly similar to those of solar neighborhood clouds, there is one important quantitative difference: its mean column density is one to two orders of magnitude higher. Both the similarity and difference in the PDF compared to those derived from solar neighborhood clouds match predictions of turbulent cloud models given the high-pressure environment of the CMZ. The PDF shows a small deviation from log-normal at high column densities confirming the youth of G0.253+0.016. Its lack of star formation is consistent with the theoretically predicted, environmentally dependent volume density threshold for star formation which is orders of magnitude higher than that derived for solar neighborhood clouds. Our results provide the first empirical evidence that the current theoretical understanding of molecular cloud structure derived from the solar neighborhood also holds in high-pressure environments. We therefore suggest that these theories may be applicable to understand star formation in the early universe.

  1. TURBULENCE SETS THE INITIAL CONDITIONS FOR STAR FORMATION IN HIGH-PRESSURE ENVIRONMENTS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rathborne, J. M.; Contreras, Y. [CSIRO Astronomy and Space Science, P.O. Box 76, Epping NSW, 1710 (Australia); Longmore, S. N.; Bastian, N. [Astrophysics Research Institute, Liverpool John Moores University, 146 Brownlow Hill, Liverpool L3 5RF (United Kingdom); Jackson, J. M. [Institute for Astrophysical Research, Boston University, Boston, MA 02215 (United States); Kruijssen, J. M. D. [Max-Planck Institut fur Astrophysik, Karl-Schwarzschild-Strasse 1, D-85748, Garching (Germany); Alves, J. F. [University of Vienna, Türkenschanzstrasse 17, A-1180 Vienna (Austria); Bally, J. [Center for Astrophysics and Space Astronomy, University of Colorado, UCB 389, Boulder, CO 8030 (United States); Foster, J. B. [Department of Astronomy, Yale University, P.O. Box 208101 New Haven, CT 06520-8101 (United States); Garay, G. [Universidad de Chile, Camino El Observatorio1515, Las Condes, Santiago (Chile); Testi, L. [European Southern Observatory, Karl-Schwarzschild-Strasse 2, D-85748 Garching bei Munchen (Germany); Walsh, A. J., E-mail: Jill.Rathborne@csiro.au [International Centre for Radio Astronomy Research, Curtin University, GPO Box U1987, Perth (Australia)

    2014-11-10

    Despite the simplicity of theoretical models of supersonically turbulent, isothermal media, their predictions successfully match the observed gas structure and star formation activity within low-pressure (P/k < 10{sup 5} K cm{sup –3}) molecular clouds in the solar neighborhood. However, it is unknown whether or not these theories extend to clouds in high-pressure (P/k > 10{sup 7} K cm{sup –3}) environments, like those in the Galaxy's inner 200 pc central molecular zone (CMZ) and in the early universe. Here, we present Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array 3 mm dust continuum emission within a cloud, G0.253+0.016, which is immersed in the high-pressure environment of the CMZ. While the log-normal shape and dispersion of its column density probability distribution function (PDF) are strikingly similar to those of solar neighborhood clouds, there is one important quantitative difference: its mean column density is one to two orders of magnitude higher. Both the similarity and difference in the PDF compared to those derived from solar neighborhood clouds match predictions of turbulent cloud models given the high-pressure environment of the CMZ. The PDF shows a small deviation from log-normal at high column densities confirming the youth of G0.253+0.016. Its lack of star formation is consistent with the theoretically predicted, environmentally dependent volume density threshold for star formation which is orders of magnitude higher than that derived for solar neighborhood clouds. Our results provide the first empirical evidence that the current theoretical understanding of molecular cloud structure derived from the solar neighborhood also holds in high-pressure environments. We therefore suggest that these theories may be applicable to understand star formation in the early universe.

  2. Optimal control for systems governed by parabolic equations without initial conditions with controls in the coefficients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mykola Bokalo

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available We consider an optimal control problem for systems described by a Fourier problem for parabolic equations. We prove the existence of solutions, and obtain necessary conditions of the optimal control in the case of final observation when the control functions occur in the coefficients.

  3. Dependence of Segregation Potential on the Thermal and Hydraulic Conditions Predicted by Model M1

    Science.gov (United States)

    1994-04-01

    of Segregation Potential on the Thermal and Hydraulic Conditions Predicted by Model M, Yoshisuke Nakano April 1994 Rom edfor OFFICE OF THE CHIEF OF...function where i = 1, 2, 3 final ice lens k thermal conductivity of a frozen fringe 7* temperature at n, at the phase equilib- k ...hermalcoductivityoftheunfrozenpart rium of water of the soil T; average temperature gradient in R1 k , thermal conductivity of an ice layer U defined by eq 29a K0 hydraulic

  4. Resting heart rate variability predicts safety learning and fear extinction in an interoceptive fear conditioning paradigm.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meike Pappens

    Full Text Available This study aimed to investigate whether interindividual differences in autonomic inhibitory control predict safety learning and fear extinction in an interoceptive fear conditioning paradigm. Data from a previously reported study (N = 40 were extended (N = 17 and re-analyzed to test whether healthy participants' resting heart rate variability (HRV - a proxy of cardiac vagal tone - predicts learning performance. The conditioned stimulus (CS was a slight sensation of breathlessness induced by a flow resistor, the unconditioned stimulus (US was an aversive short-lasting suffocation experience induced by a complete occlusion of the breathing circuitry. During acquisition, the paired group received 6 paired CS-US presentations; the control group received 6 explicitly unpaired CS-US presentations. In the extinction phase, both groups were exposed to 6 CS-only presentations. Measures included startle blink EMG, skin conductance responses (SCR and US-expectancy ratings. Resting HRV significantly predicted the startle blink EMG learning curves both during acquisition and extinction. In the unpaired group, higher levels of HRV at rest predicted safety learning to the CS during acquisition. In the paired group, higher levels of HRV were associated with better extinction. Our findings suggest that the strength or integrity of prefrontal inhibitory mechanisms involved in safety- and extinction learning can be indexed by HRV at rest.

  5. Prediction of fluid forces acting on a hand model in unsteady flow conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kudo, Shigetada; Yanai, Toshimasa; Wilson, Barry; Takagi, Hideki; Vennell, Ross

    2008-01-01

    The aim of this study was to develop a method to predict fluid forces acting on the human hand in unsteady flow swimming conditions. A mechanical system consisting of a pulley and chain mechanism and load cell was constructed to rotate a hand model in fluid flows. To measure the angular displacement of the hand model a potentiometer was attached to the axis of the rotation. The hand model was then fixed at various angles about the longitudinal axis of the hand model and rotated at different flow velocities in a swimming flume for 258 different trials to approximate a swimmer's stroke in unsteady flow conditions. Pressures were taken from 12 transducers embedded in the hand model at a sampling frequency of 200Hz. The resultant fluid force acting on the hand model was then determined on the basis of the kinetic and kinematic data taken from the mechanical system at the frequency of 200Hz. A stepwise regression analysis was applied to acquire higher order polynomial equations that predict the fluid force acting on the accelerating hand model from the 12 pressure values. The root mean square (RMS) difference between the resultant fluid force measured and that predicted from the single best-fit polynomial equation across all trials was 5N. The method developed in the present study accurately predicted the fluid forces acting on the hand model.

  6. Hazards Response of Energetic Materials - Initiation Mechanisms, Experimental Characterization, and Development of Predictive Capability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maienschein, J; Nichols III, A; Reaugh, J; McClelland, M; Hsu, P C

    2005-04-15

    We present our approach to develop a predictive capability for hazards -- thermal and non-shock impact -- response of energetic material systems based on: (A) identification of relevant processes; (B) characterization of the relevant properties; (C) application of property data to predictive models; and (D) application of the models into predictive simulation. This paper focuses on the first two elements above, while a companion paper by Nichols et al focuses on the final two elements. We outline the underlying mechanisms of hazards response and their interactions, and present our experimental work to characterize the necessary material parameters, including thermal ignition, thermal and mechanical properties, fracture/fragmentation behavior, deflagration rates, and the effect of material damage. We also describe our validation test, the Scaled Thermal Explosion Experiment. Finally, we integrate the entire collection of data into a qualitative understanding that is useful until such time as the predictive models become available.

  7. Predicting treatment initiation in a family-based adolescent overweight and obesity intervention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dhingra, Akshay; Brennan, Leah; Walkley, Jeff

    2011-06-01

    Little is known about factors associated with treatment initiation in overweight and obese adolescents. This study investigated parent-reported adolescent demographic, adolescent health, and parent motivation factors associated with initiation of a family-based adolescent overweight and obesity intervention. A telephone survey was completed by 349 parents calling to register their interest in participating in a cognitive behavioral lifestyle intervention for adolescent overweight and obesity. A total of 172 families (49.3%) returned their consent form to initiate treatment. A binomial logistic regression, with predictors entered in three blocks: (i) adolescent demographic (adolescent age, gender, adolescent BMI-for-age z-score, parent BMI); (ii) adolescent health (perceived adolescent physical and mental health, presence of an adolescent physical health problem or mental health problem, medication intake); and (iii) parent motivation (perceived adolescent weight category, concern about adolescent weight, importance of adolescent weight, confidence in adolescent capacity to change weight, priority of adolescent weight loss, discrepancy between adolescent current and ideal weight, previous weight loss attempts), was significant (χ2 (16) = 35.19, P = 0.004) accounting for 12.4-16.5% (95% confidence interval) of treatment initiation variance. Parent-reported adolescent physical health problem, parent perception of adolescent weight category, parent priority of adolescent weight loss, and parent perception of discrepancy between adolescent current and ideal weight were significant in the model. These findings indicate that data collected at intake are associated with treatment initiation and highlight the role of assessing and enhancing treatment motivation from initial contact.

  8. Puzzling initial conditions in the R{sub h} = ct model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bengochea, Gabriel R. [CONICET-Universidad de Buenos Aires, Instituto de Astronomia y Fisica del Espacio (IAFE), Buenos Aires (Argentina); Leon, Gabriel [Universidad de Buenos Aires, Ciudad Universitaria, PabI, Departamento de Fisica, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Buenos Aires (Argentina)

    2016-11-15

    In recent years, some studies have drawn attention to the lack of large-angle correlations in the observed cosmic microwave background (CMB) temperature anisotropies with respect to that predicted within the standard ΛCDM model. Lately, it has been argued that such a lack of correlations could be explained in the framework of the so-called R{sub h} = ct model without inflation. The aim of this work is to study whether there is a mechanism to generate, through a quantum field theory, the primordial power spectrum presented by these authors. Specifically, we consider two different scenarios: first, we assume a scalar field dominating the early Universe in the R{sub h} = ct cosmological model, and second, we deal with the possibility of adding an early inflationary phase to the mentioned model. During the analysis of the consistency between the predicted and observed amplitudes of the CMB temperature anisotropies in both scenarios, we run into deep issues which indicate that it is not clear how to characterize the primordial quantum perturbations within the R{sub h} = ct model. (orig.)

  9. Predictive efficacy of the 2014 International Society of Urological Pathology Gleason grading system in initially diagnosed metastatic prostate cancer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guang-Xi Sun

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available We compared the predictive ability of the 2014 and 2005 Gleason grading systems in 568 patients initially diagnosed with metastatic prostate cancer (PCa. Outcomes included the duration of castration-resistant prostate cancer-free survival (CFS and overall survival (OS. Univariate analyses and log-rank tests were used to identify prognosis indicators and assess univariable differences in CFS and OS in Gleason score (GS groups. Cox proportional hazards and area under the curves of receiver operator characteristics methods were used to evaluate the predictive efficacy of the 2005 and 2014 ISUP grading systems. Univariate analyses showed that the 2005 and 2014 grading systems were prognosticators for CFS and OS; both systems could distinguish the clinical outcome of patients with GS 6, GS 7, and GS 8-10. Using the 2014 criteria, no statistical differences in patient survival were observed between GS 3 + 4 and GS 4 + 3 or GS 8 and GS 9-10. The predictive ability of the 2014 and 2005 grading systems was comparable for CFS and OS (P = 0.321. However, the 2014 grading system did not exhibit superior predictive efficacy in patients initially diagnosed with PCa and bone metastasis; trials using larger cohorts are required to confirm its predictive value. To the best of our knowledge, ours is the first study to compare the 2005 and 2014 grading systems in initially diagnosed PCa with bone metastasis. At present, we recommend that both systems should be used to predict the prognosis of patients with metastatic PCa.

  10. Model predictions of realgar precipitation by reaction of As(III) with synthetic mackinawite under anoxic conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallegos, T.J.; Han, Y.-S.; Hayes, K.F.

    2008-01-01

    This study investigates the removal of As(III) from solution using mackinawite, a nanoparticulate reduced iron sulfide. Mackinawite suspensions (0.1-40 g/L) effectively lower initial concentrations of 1.3 ?? 10 -5 M As(III) from pH 5-10, with maximum removal occurring under acidic conditions. Based on Eh measurements, it was found that the redox state of the system depended on the mackinawite solids concentration and pH. Higher initial mackinawite concentrations and alkaline pH resulted in a more reducing redox condition. Given this, the pH edge data were modeled thermodynamically using pe (-log[e-]) as a fitting parameter and linear pe-pH relationships within the range of measured Eh values as a function of pH and mackinawite concentration. The model predicts removal of As(III) from solution by precipitation of realgar with the formation of secondary oxidation products, greigite or a mixed-valence iron oxide phase, depending on pH. This study demonstrates that mackinawite is an effective sequestration agent for As(III) and highlights the importance of incorporating redox into models describing the As-Fe-S-H2O system. ?? 2008 American Chemical Society.

  11. Analytical Predictions of Thermal Stress in the Stardust PICA Heatshield Under Reentry Flight Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Squire, Thomas; Milos, Frank; Agrawal, Parul

    2009-01-01

    We performed finite element analyses on a model of the Phenolic Impregnated Carbon Ablator (PICA) heatshield from the Stardust sample return capsule (SRC) to predict the thermal stresses in the PICA material during reentry. The heatshield on the Stardust SRC was a 0.83 m sphere cone, fabricated from a single piece of 5.82 cm-thick PICA. The heatshield performed successfully during Earth reentry of the SRC in January 2006. Material response analyses of the full, axisymmetric PICA heatshield were run using the Two-Dimensional Implicit Ablation, Pyrolysis, and Thermal Response Program (TITAN). Peak surface temperatures were predicted to be 3385K, while the temperature at the PICA backface remained at the estimated initial cold-soak temperature of 278K. Surface recession and temperature distribution results from TITAN, at several points in the reentry trajectory, were mapped onto an axisymmetric finite element model of the heatshield. We used the finite element model to predict the thermal stresses in the PICA from differential thermal expansion. The predicted peak compressive stress in the PICA heatshield was 1.38 MPa. Although this level of stress exceeded the chosen design limit for compressive stresses in PICA tiles for the design of the Orion crew exploration vehicle heatshield, the Stardust heatshield exhibited no obvious mechanical failures from thermal stress. The analyses of the Stardust heatshield were used to assess and adjust the level of conservatism in the finite element analyses in support of the Orion heatshield design.

  12. Conditioning rainfall-runoff model parameters to reduce prediction uncertainty in ungauged basins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Visessri, S.; McIntyre, N.; Maksimovic, C.

    2012-12-01

    Conditioning rainfall-runoff model parameters in ungauged catchments in Thailand presents problems common to ungauged basins involving data availability, data quality, and rainfall-runoff model suitability, which all contribute to prediction uncertainty. This paper attempts to improve the estimation of streamflow in ungauged basins and reduce associated uncertainties using the approaches of conditioning the prior parameter space. 35 catchments from the upper Ping River basin, Thailand are selected as a case study. The catchments have a range of attributes e.g. catchment sizes 20-6350 km2, elevations 632-1529 m above sea level. and annual rainfall 846-1447 mm/year. For each catchment, three indices - rainfall-runoff elasticity, base flow index and runoff coefficient - are calculated using the observed rainfall-runoff data and regression equations relating these indices to the catchment attributes are identified. Uncertainty in expected indices is defined by the regression error distribution, approximated by a Gaussian model. The IHACRES model is applied for simulating streamflow. The IHACRES parameters are randomly sampled from their presumed prior parameter space. For each sampled parameter set, the streamflow and hence the three indices are modelled. The parameter sets are conditioned on the probability distributions of the regionalised indices, allowing ensemble predictions to be made. The objective function, NSE, calculated for daily and weekly time steps from the water years 1995-2000, is used to assess model performance. Ability to capture observed streamflow and the precision of the estimate is evaluated using reliability and sharpness measures. Similarity in modelled and expected indices contributes to good objective function values. Using only the regionalised runoff coefficient to condition the model yields better NSE values compared to using either only the rainfall-runoff elasticity or only the base flow index. Conditioning on the runoff coefficient

  13. Uncertainties in Predicting Rice Yield by Current Crop Models Under a Wide Range of Climatic Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Tao; Hasegawa, Toshihiro; Yin, Xinyou; Zhu, Yan; Boote, Kenneth; Adam, Myriam; Bregaglio, Simone; Buis, Samuel; Confalonieri, Roberto; Fumoto, Tamon; Gaydon, Donald; Marcaida, Manuel, III; Nakagawa, Hiroshi; Oriol, Philippe; Ruane, Alex C.; Ruget, Francoise; Singh, Balwinder; Singh, Upendra; Tang, Liang; Tao, Fulu; Wilkens, Paul; Yoshida, Hiroe; Zhang, Zhao; Bouman, Bas

    2014-01-01

    Predicting rice (Oryza sativa) productivity under future climates is important for global food security. Ecophysiological crop models in combination with climate model outputs are commonly used in yield prediction, but uncertainties associated with crop models remain largely unquantified. We evaluated 13 rice models against multi-year experimental yield data at four sites with diverse climatic conditions in Asia and examined whether different modeling approaches on major physiological processes attribute to the uncertainties of prediction to field measured yields and to the uncertainties of sensitivity to changes in temperature and CO2 concentration [CO2]. We also examined whether a use of an ensemble of crop models can reduce the uncertainties. Individual models did not consistently reproduce both experimental and regional yields well, and uncertainty was larger at the warmest and coolest sites. The variation in yield projections was larger among crop models than variation resulting from 16 global climate model-based scenarios. However, the mean of predictions of all crop models reproduced experimental data, with an uncertainty of less than 10 percent of measured yields. Using an ensemble of eight models calibrated only for phenology or five models calibrated in detail resulted in the uncertainty equivalent to that of the measured yield in well-controlled agronomic field experiments. Sensitivity analysis indicates the necessity to improve the accuracy in predicting both biomass and harvest index in response to increasing [CO2] and temperature.

  14. INITIATORS AND TRIGGERING CONDITIONS FOR ADAPTIVE AUTOMATION IN ADVANCED SMALL MODULAR REACTORS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Katya L Le Blanc; Johanna h Oxstrand

    2014-04-01

    It is anticipated that Advanced Small Modular Reactors (AdvSMRs) will employ high degrees of automation. High levels of automation can enhance system performance, but often at the cost of reduced human performance. Automation can lead to human out-of the loop issues, unbalanced workload, complacency, and other problems if it is not designed properly. Researchers have proposed adaptive automation (defined as dynamic or flexible allocation of functions) as a way to get the benefits of higher levels of automation without the human performance costs. Adaptive automation has the potential to balance operator workload and enhance operator situation awareness by allocating functions to the operators in a way that is sensitive to overall workload and capabilities at the time of operation. However, there still a number of questions regarding how to effectively design adaptive automation to achieve that potential. One of those questions is related to how to initiate (or trigger) a shift in automation in order to provide maximal sensitivity to operator needs without introducing undesirable consequences (such as unpredictable mode changes). Several triggering mechanisms for shifts in adaptive automation have been proposed including: operator initiated, critical events, performance-based, physiological measurement, model-based, and hybrid methods. As part of a larger project to develop design guidance for human-automation collaboration in AdvSMRs, researchers at Idaho National Laboratory have investigated the effectiveness and applicability of each of these triggering mechanisms in the context of AdvSMR. Researchers reviewed the empirical literature on adaptive automation and assessed each triggering mechanism based on the human-system performance consequences of employing that mechanism. Researchers also assessed the practicality and feasibility of using the mechanism in the context of an AdvSMR control room. Results indicate that there are tradeoffs associated with each

  15. Contributions of the Stochastic Shape Wake Model to Predictions of Aerodynamic Loads and Power under Single Wake Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doubrawa, P.; Barthelmie, R. J.; Wang, H.; Churchfield, M. J.

    2016-09-01

    The contribution of wake meandering and shape asymmetry to load and power estimates is quantified by comparing aeroelastic simulations initialized with different inflow conditions: an axisymmetric base wake, an unsteady stochastic shape wake, and a large-eddy simulation with rotating actuator-line turbine representation. Time series of blade-root and tower base bending moments are analyzed. We find that meandering has a large contribution to the fluctuation of the loads. Moreover, considering the wake edge intermittence via the stochastic shape model improves the simulation of load and power fluctuations and of the fatigue damage equivalent loads. These results indicate that the stochastic shape wake simulator is a valuable addition to simplified wake models when seeking to obtain higher-fidelity computationally inexpensive predictions of loads and power.

  16. Initial Conditions for Numerical Relativity -- Introduction to numerical methods for solving elliptic PDEs

    CERN Document Server

    Okawa, Hirotada

    2013-01-01

    Numerical relativity became a powerful tool to investigate the dynamics of binary problems with black holes or neutron stars as well as the very structure of General Relativity. Although public numerical relativity codes are available to evolve such systems, a proper understanding of the methods involved is quite important. Here we focus on the numerical solution of elliptic partial differential equations. Such equations arise when preparing initial data for numerical relativity, but also for monitoring the evolution of black holes. Because such elliptic equations play an important role in many branches of physics, we give an overview of the topic, and show how to numerically solve them with simple examples and sample codes written in C++ and Fortran90 for beginners in numerical relativity or other fields requiring numerical expertise.

  17. Direct Method for Resolution of Optimal Control Problem with Free Initial Condition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Louadj Kahina

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The theory of control analyzes the proprieties of commanded systems. Problems of optimal control (OC have been intensively investigated in the world literature for over forty years. During this period, series of fundamental results have been obtained, among which should be noted the maximum principle (Pontryagin et al., 1962 and dynamic programming (Bellman, 1963. For many of the problems of the optimal control theory (OCT, adequate solutions are found (Bryson and Yu-chi, 1969, Lee and Markus, 1967, Gabasov and Kirillova, 1977, 1978, 1980. Results of the theory were taken up in various fields of science, engineering, and economics. The present paper aims at extending the constructive methods of Balashevich et al., (2000 that were developed for the problems of optimal control with the bounded initial state is not fixed are considered.

  18. Initial approach to assess lateral buckling behavior: comparison between design and operational condition of offshore pipeline

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Familiar Solano, Rafael; Reis Antunes, Bruno; Santos Hansen, Alexandre [PETROBRAS, Rio de Janeiro, (Brazil)

    2010-07-01

    Offshore pipelines can be subject to lateral buckling; some strategies are applied to prevent buckle initiation by monitoring the buckling behaviour. Some pipelines have been modified by PETROBRAS with triggers and sleepers; and distributed buoyancies have been added along the pipeline route. This paper investigated the thermo-mechanical design of the pipeline to avoid buckling and its consequences. Both planned buckles at dual sleepers and at distributed buoyancy modules and unplanned buckles were studied. Comparisons between the results obtained in design with finite element analysis and observed during operation with sidescan images were made. Seven planned buckles and two unplanned buckles were mapped and analyzed. It was found that the maximum stress, strain and fatigue damage at the buckle locations were fairly low. The mapping tests showed that the lengths and amplitudes of the buckles were compatible with lateral buckles in the design of pipelines.

  19. Simulating the formation of molecular clouds. II. Rapid formation from turbulent initial conditions

    CERN Document Server

    Glover, S C O

    2006-01-01

    (Abridged). In this paper, we present results from a large set of numerical simulations that demonstrate that H2 formation occurs rapidly in turbulent gas. Starting with purely atomic hydrogen, large quantities of molecular hydrogen can be produced on timescales of 1 -- 2 Myr, given turbulent velocity dispersions and magnetic field strengths consistent with observations. Moreover, as our simulations underestimate the effectiveness of H2 self-shielding and dust absorption, we can be confident that the molecular fractions that we compute are strong lower limits on the true values. The formation of large quantities of H2 on the timescale required by rapid cloud formation models therefore appears to be entirely plausible. We also investigate the density and temperature distributions of gas in our model clouds. We show that the density probability distribution function is approximately log-normal, with a dispersion that agrees well with the prediction of Padoan, Nordlund & Jones (1997). The temperature distrib...

  20. Machine and lubricant condition monitoring for extended equipment lifetimes and predictive maintenance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lukas, M.; Anderson, D.P. [Spectro Incorporated, Littleton, Massachusetts (United States)

    1997-12-31

    Predictive maintenance has gained wide acceptance as a cost cutting strategy in modern industry. Condition monitoring by lubricant analysis is one of the basic tools of a predictive maintenance program along with vibration monitoring, performance monitoring and thermography. In today`s modern power generation, manufacturing, refinery, transportation, mining, and military operations, the cost of equipment maintenance, service, and lubricants are ever increasing. Parts, labor, equipment downtime and lubricant prices and disposal costs are a primary concern in a well run maintenance management program. Machine condition monitoring based on oil analysis has become a prerequisite in most maintenance programs. Few operations can afford not to implement a program if they wish to remain competitive, and in some cases, profitable. This presentation describes a comprehensive Machine Condition Monitoring Program based on oil analysis. Actual operational condition monitoring programs will be used to review basic components and analytical requirements. Case histories will be cited as examples of cost savings, reduced equipment downtime and increased efficiencies of maintenance programs through a well managed oil analysis program. (orig.)

  1. Initial conditions implied by t exp 1/2 solidification of a sphere with capillarity and interfacial kinetics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sekerka, R. F.; Voorhees, P. W.; Coriel, S. R.; Mcfadden, G. B.

    1988-01-01

    The paper explores the initial conditions implied by t exp 1/2 growth of a spherical crystal solidifying from a pure, undercooled melt, including the effects of both capillarity and interface kinetics, and relates the findings to initial conditions that would be expected on the basis of classical nucleation theory. For crystal sizes near the nucleation radius, the calculated temperature profiles show a cold region ahead of the advancing interface that is even more undercooled than the undercooled bath. This cold region acts as a local heat sink that compensates for the reduced growth speed that would otherwise result from capillarity and kinetics, leading to precisely the same t exp 1/2 growth law that would have been obtained had both capillarity and kinetics been neglected.

  2. Incidence of WHO stage 3 and 4 conditions following initiation of anti-retroviral therapy in resource limited settings.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrea J Curtis

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVES: To determine the incidence of WHO clinical stage 3 and 4 conditions during early anti-retroviral therapy (ART in resource limited settings (RLS. DESIGN/SETTING: A descriptive analysis of routine program data collected prospectively from 25 Médecins Sans Frontières supported HIV treatment programs in eight countries between 2002 and 2010. SUBJECTS/PARTICIPANTS: 35,349 study participants with median follow-up on ART of 1.33 years (IQR 0.51-2.41. OUTCOME MEASURES: Incidence in 100 person-years of WHO stage 3 or 4 conditions during 5 periods after ART initiation. Diagnoses of conditions were made according to WHO criteria and relied upon clinical assessments supported by basic laboratory investigations. RESULTS: The incidence of any WHO clinical stage 3 or 4 condition over 3 years was 40.02 per 100 person-years (31.77 for stage 3 and 8.25 for stage 4. The incidence of stage 3 and 4 conditions fell by over 97% between months 0-3 and months 25-36 (77.81 to 2.40 for stage 3 and 28.70 to 0.64 for stage 4. During months 0-3 pulmonary tuberculosis was the most common condition diagnosed in adults (incidence 22.24 per 100 person-years and children aged 5-14 years (25.76 and oral candidiasis was the most common in children <5 years (25.79. Overall incidences were higher in Africa compared with Asia (43.98 versus 12.97 for stage 3 and 8.98 versus 7.05 for stage 4 conditions, p<0.001. Pulmonary tuberculosis, weight loss, oral and oesophageal candidiasis, chronic diarrhoea, HIV wasting syndrome and severe bacterial infections were more common in Africa. Extra-pulmonary tuberculosis, non-tuberculous mycobacterial infection, cryptococcosis, penicilliosis and toxoplasmosis were more common in Asia. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of WHO stage 3 and 4 conditions during the early period after ART initiation in RLS is high, but greatly reduces over time. This is likely due to both the benefits of ART and deaths of the sickest patients occurring shortly

  3. Predicting the effect of climate change on wildfire behavior and initial attack success

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Riley, William; Fried, Jeremy S.; Gilless, J. Keith; Riley, William J.; Moody, Tadashi J.; Simon de Blas, Clara; Hayhoe, Katharine; Moritz, Max; Stephens, Scott; Torn, Margaret

    2007-12-01

    This study focused on how climate change-induced effects on weather will translate into changes in wildland fire severity and outcomes in California, particularly on the effectiveness of initial attack at limiting the number of fires that escape initial attack. The results indicate that subtle shifts in fire behavior of the sort that might be induced by the climate changes anticipated for the next century are of sufficient magnitude to generate an appreciable increase in the number of fires that escape initial attack. Such escapes are of considerable importance in wildland fire protection planning, given the high cost to society of a catastrophic escape like those experienced in recent decades in the Berkeley-Oakland, Santa Barbara, San Diego, or Los Angeles areas. However, at least for the three study areas considered, it would appear that relatively modest augmentations to existing firefighting resources might be sufficient to compensate for change-induced changes in wildland fire outcomes.

  4. Impact of rainfall spatial distribution on rainfall-runoff modelling efficiency and initial soil moisture conditions estimation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Tramblay

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available A good knowledge of rainfall is essential for hydrological operational purposes such as flood forecasting. The objective of this paper was to analyze, on a relatively large sample of flood events, how rainfall-runoff modeling using an event-based model can be sensitive to the use of spatial rainfall compared to mean areal rainfall over the watershed. This comparison was based not only on the model's efficiency in reproducing the flood events but also through the estimation of the initial conditions by the model, using different rainfall inputs. The initial conditions of soil moisture are indeed a key factor for flood modeling in the Mediterranean region. In order to provide a soil moisture index that could be related to the initial condition of the model, the soil moisture output of the Safran-Isba-Modcou (SIM model developed by Météo-France was used. This study was done in the Gardon catchment (545 km2 in South France, using uniform or spatial rainfall data derived from rain gauge and radar for 16 flood events. The event-based model considered combines the SCS runoff production model and the Lag and Route routing model. Results show that spatial rainfall increases the efficiency of the model. The advantage of using spatial rainfall is marked for some of the largest flood events. In addition, the relationship between the model's initial condition and the external predictor of soil moisture provided by the SIM model is better when using spatial rainfall, in particular when using spatial radar data with R2 values increasing from 0.61 to 0.72.

  5. Numerical simulation of KdV and mKdV equations with initial conditions by the variational iteration method

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Inc, Mustafa [Department of Mathematics, Firat University, 23119 Elazig (Turkey)]. E-mail: minc@firat.edu.tr200

    2007-11-15

    A scheme is developed for the numerical study of the Korteweg-de Vries (KdV) and the modified Korteweg-de Vries (mKdV) equations with initial conditions by a variational approach. The exact and numerical solutions obtained by variational iteration method are compared with those obtained by Adomian decomposition method. The comparison shows that the obtained solutions are in excellent agreement.

  6. Prediction of thermal sensation in non-air-conditioned buildings in warm climates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fanger, Povl Ole; Toftum, Jørn

    2002-01-01

    The PMV model agrees well with high-quality field studies in buildings with HVAC systems, situated in cold, temperate and warm climates, studied during both summer and winter. In non-air-conditioned buildings in warm climates, occupants may sense the warmth as being less severe than the PMV...... predicts. The main reason is low expectations, but a metabolic rate that is estimated too high can also contribute to explaining the difference. An extension of the PMV model that includes an expectancy factor is introduced for use in non-air-conditioned buildings in warm climates. The extended PMV model...... agrees well with quality field studies in non-air-conditioned buildings of three continents....

  7. Effects of Heterogeneity and Uncertainties in Sources and Initial and Boundary Conditions on Spatiotemporal Variations of Groundwater Levels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Y. K.; Liang, X.

    2014-12-01

    Effects of aquifer heterogeneity and uncertainties in source/sink, and initial and boundary conditions in a groundwater flow model on the spatiotemporal variations of groundwater level, h(x,t), were investigated. Analytical solutions for the variance and covariance of h(x, t) in an unconfined aquifer described by a linearized Boussinesq equation with a white noise source/sink and a random transmissivity field were derived. It was found that in a typical aquifer the error in h(x,t) in early time is mainly caused by the random initial condition and the error reduces as time goes to reach a constant error in later time. The duration during which the effect of the random initial condition is significant may last a few hundred days in most aquifers. The constant error in groundwater in later time is due to the combined effects of the uncertain source/sink and flux boundary: the closer to the flux boundary, the larger the error. The error caused by the uncertain head boundary is limited in a narrow zone near the boundary but it remains more or less constant over time. The effect of the heterogeneity is to increase the variation of groundwater level and the maximum effect occurs close to the constant head boundary because of the linear mean hydraulic gradient. The correlation of groundwater level decreases with temporal interval and spatial distance. In addition, the heterogeneity enhances the correlation of groundwater level, especially at larger time intervals and small spatial distances.

  8. A method of estimating initial conditions of coupled map lattices based on time-varying symbolic dynamics

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Shen Min-Fen; Liu Ying; Lin Lan-Xin

    2009-01-01

    A novel computationally efficient algorithm in terms of the time-varying symbolic dynamic method is proposed to estimate the unknown initial conditions of coupled map lattices (CMLs). The presented method combines symbolic dynamics with time-varying control parameters to develop a time-varying scheme for estimating the initial condition of multi-dimensional spatiotemporal chaotic signals. The performances of the presented time-varying estimator in both noiseless and noisy environments are analysed and compared with the common time-invariant estimator. Simulations are carried out and the obtained results show that the proposed method provides an efficient estimation of the initial condition of each lattice in the coupled system. The algorithm cannot yield an asymptotically unbiased estimation due to the effect of the coupling term, but the estimation with the time-varying algorithm is closer to the Cramer-Rao lower bound (CRLB) than that with the time-invariant estimation method, especially at high signal-to-noise ratios (SNRs).

  9. Phytoplankton succession in an isolated upwelled Benguela water body in relation to different initial nutrient conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wasmund, Norbert; Nausch, Günther; Hansen, Anja

    2014-11-01

    Freshly upwelled water is poor in phytoplankton biomass but rich in nutrients. With its ageing, phytoplankton biomass increases whereas the nutrients are consumed. The overall aim of our investigation was to check the succession in the phytoplankton composition as a consequence of changing nutrient conditions. The experiments were carried out in mesocosms filled with surface water in the northern Benguela region and installed on board of R/V "Maria S. Merian". In the freshly upwelled water, phytoplankton took up nitrogen at a higher rate than phosphorus if compared with the Redfield ratio. Therefore, nitrogen was exhausted already by day 6. Nitrogen limitation after day 6 was indicated by decreasing chlorophyll a (chla) concentrations, primary production rates and productivity indices and increasing C/N ratios in particulate matter. Despite nitrogen limitation, phosphorus addition stimulated further growth, mainly of diatoms, pointing to luxury uptake. Cyanobacteria did not develop and nitrogen fixation was zero even with phosphorus and iron addition. Diatoms stay the most important group in the freshly upwelled water, but autotrophic and heterotrophic dinoflagellates increase strongly in the matured upwelled water. Mesocosms excluded disturbances by advective water transports, which influence the study of succssions under field conditions.

  10. Conditioning film and initial biofilm formation on ceramics tiles in the marine environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siboni, Nachshon; Lidor, Michal; Kramarsky-Winter, Esti; Kushmaro, Ariel

    2007-09-01

    The formation of biofilm on surfaces in the marine environment is believed to be an important factor driving colonization and recruitment of some sessile invertebrate communities. The present study follows the process of biofilm buildup on unglazed ceramic tiles deployed into the marine environment in the northern Gulf of Eilat. PCR-DGGE of film eluted from the tile surface indicated the presence of bacteria as early as 2 h after deployment. The makeup of the biofilm bacterial community was dynamic. Bacterial presence was apparent microscopically 6 h after deployment, though a developed biofilm was not observed until 24 h following deployment. Total organic carbon (TOC) data suggest that a conditioning film was built within the first four hours following deployment. During this time period TOC reached the highest level possibly due to adhesion of organics (e.g., sugars, proteins and humic substances) from the water column. We suggest that the primary adhering bacteria, whilst still in the reversible stage of adhesion, utilize the conditioning film as food causing the decrease in TOC. Understanding the dynamics between these primary bacterial settlers is of importance, since they may play a role on the succession of invertebrate species settlement onto artificial surfaces.

  11. The slope of the initial temperature drop predicts acute pulmonary vein isolation using the second-generation cryoballoon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deubner, Nikolas; Greiss, Harald; Akkaya, Ersan; Zaltsberg, Sergey; Hain, Andreas; Berkowitsch, Alexander; Güttler, Norbert; Kuniss, Malte; Neumann, Thomas

    2017-09-01

    There is no objective, early indicator of occlusion quality, and efficacy of cryoballoon pulmonary vein isolation. As previous experience suggests that the initial cooling rate correlates with these parameters, we investigated the slope of the initial temperature drop as an objective measure. A systematic evaluation of 523 cryoapplications in 105 patients using a serial ROC-AUC analysis was performed. We found the slope of a linear regression of the temperature-time function to be a good predictor (PPV 0.9, specificity 0.72, sensitivity 0.71, and ROC-AUC 0.75) of acute isolation. It also correlated with nadir temperatures (P< 0.001, adjusted R2= 0.43), predicted very low nadir temperatures, and varied according to visual occlusion grades (ANOVA P< 0.001). About 25 s after freeze initiation, the temperature-time slope predicts important key characteristics of a cryoablation, such as nadir temperature. The slope is the only reported predictor to actually precede acute isolation and thus to support decisions about pull-down manoeuvres or aborting a cryoablation early on. It is also predictive of very low nadir temperatures and phrenic nerve palsy and thus may add to patient safety.

  12. The initial conditions and evolution of isolated galaxy models: effects of the hot gas halo

    CERN Document Server

    Hwang, Jeong-Sun; Choi, Jun-Hwan

    2013-01-01

    We construct several Milky Way-like galaxy models containing a gas halo (as well as gaseous and stellar disks, a dark matter halo, and a stellar bulge) following either an isothermal or an NFW density profile with varying mass and initial spin. In addition, galactic winds associated with star formation are tested in some of the simulations. We evolve these isolated galaxy models using the GADGET-3 $N$-body/hydrodynamic simulation code, paying particular attention to the effects of the gas halo on the evolution. We find that the evolution of the models is strongly affected by the adopted gas halo component. The model without a gas halo shows an increasing star formation rate (SFR) at the beginning of the simulation for some hundreds of millions of years and then a continuously decreasing rate to the end of the run at 3 Gyr. On the other hand, the SFRs in the models with a gas halo emerge to be either relatively flat throughout the simulations or increasing over a gigayear and then decreasing to the end. The mo...

  13. Continuum-scale investigation of evaporation from bare soil under different boundary and initial conditions: An evaluation of nonequilibrium phase change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trautz, Andrew C.; Smits, Kathleen M.; Cihan, Abdullah

    2015-09-01

    Evaporation and condensation in bare soils govern water and energy fluxes between the land and atmosphere. Phase change between liquid water and water vapor is commonly evaluated in soil hydrology using an assumption of instantaneous phase change (i.e., chemical equilibrium). Past experimental studies have shown that finite volatilization and condensation times can be observed under certain environmental conditions, thereby questioning the validity of this assumption. A comparison between equilibrium and nonequilibrium phase change modeling approaches showed that the latter is able to provide better estimates of evaporation, justifying the need for more research on this topic. Several formulations based on irreversible thermodynamics, first-order reaction kinetics, or the kinetic theory of gases have been employed to describe nonequilibrium phase change at the continuum scale. In this study, results from a fully coupled nonisothermal heat and mass transfer model applying four different nonequilibrium phase change formulations were compared with experimental data generated under different initial and boundary conditions. Results from a modified Hertz-Knudsen formulation based on kinetic theory of gases, proposed herein, were consistently in best agreement in terms of preserving both magnitude and trends of experimental data under all environmental conditions analyzed. Simulation results showed that temperature-dependent formulations generally better predict evaporation than formulations independent of temperature. Analysis of vapor concentrations within the porous media showed that conditions were not at equilibrium under the experimental conditions tested.

  14. Sensitivity of LISEM predicted catchment discharge to initial soil moisture content of soil profile

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    V. Sheikh; E. van Loon; R. Hessel; V. Jetten

    2010-01-01

    This study conducts a broad sensitivity analysis, taking into account the influence of initial soil moisture content in two soil layers, layer depths, event properties, and two infiltration models. A distributed hydrology and soil erosion model (LISEM) is used. Using the terrain data from the Catsop

  15. Online communication predicts Belgian adolescents’ initiation of romantic and sexual activity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vandenbosch, L.; Beyens, I.; Vangeel, L.; Eggermont, S.

    2016-01-01

    Online communication is associated with offline romantic and sexual activity among college students. Yet, it is unknown whether online communication is associated with the initiation of romantic and sexual activity among adolescents. This two-wave panel study investigated whether chatting, visiting

  16. Prediction of hydrological reduction factor and initial loss in urban surface runoff from small ungauged catchments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K.; Harremoës, P.

    1996-01-01

    in a catchment for the description of the rain input. A significant variation of the two parameters from one catchment to another has been found and the uncertainty of the two variables are evaluated. The uncertainty of the hydrological reduction factor and the initial loss should be taken into account...

  17. Online communication predicts Belgian adolescents’ initiation of romantic and sexual activity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vandenbosch, L.; Beyens, I.; Vangeel, L.; Eggermont, S.

    2016-01-01

    Online communication is associated with offline romantic and sexual activity among college students. Yet, it is unknown whether online communication is associated with the initiation of romantic and sexual activity among adolescents. This two-wave panel study investigated whether chatting, visiting

  18. Simulating the Formation of Molecular Clouds. II. Rapid Formation from Turbulent Initial Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glover, Simon C. O.; Mac Low, Mordecai-Mark

    2007-04-01

    In this paper we present results from a large set of numerical simulations that demonstrate that H2 formation occurs rapidly in turbulent gas. Starting with purely atomic hydrogen, large quantities of molecular hydrogen can be produced on timescales of 1-2 Myr, given turbulent velocity dispersions and magnetic field strengths consistent with observations. Moreover, as our simulations underestimate the effectiveness of H2 self-shielding and dust absorption, we can be confident that the molecular fractions that we compute are strong lower limits on the true values. The formation of large quantities of molecular gas on the timescale required by rapid cloud formation models therefore appears to be entirely plausible. We also investigate the density and temperature distributions of gas in our model clouds. We show that the density probability distribution function is approximately lognormal, with a dispersion that agrees well with the prediction of Padoan and coworkers. The temperature distribution is similar to that of a polytrope, with an effective polytropic index γeff~=0.8, although at low gas densities, the scatter of the actual gas temperature around this mean value is considerable, and the polytropic approximation does not capture the full range of behavior of the gas.

  19. Experimental characterization of initial conditions and spatio-temporal evolution of a small Atwood number Rayleigh-Taylor mixing layer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mueschke, N J; Andrews, M J; Schilling, O

    2006-03-24

    The initial multi-mode interfacial velocity and density perturbations present at the onset of a small Atwood number, incompressible, miscible, Rayleigh-Taylor instability-driven mixing layer have been quantified using a combination of experimental techniques. The streamwise interfacial and spanwise interfacial perturbations were measured using high-resolution thermocouples and planar laser-induced fluorescence (PLIF), respectively. The initial multi-mode streamwise velocity perturbations at the two-fluid density interface were measured using particle-image velocimetry (PIV). It was found that the measured initial conditions describe an initially anisotropic state, in which the perturbations in the streamwise and spanwise directions are independent of one another. The evolution of various fluctuating velocity and density statistics, together with velocity and density variance spectra, were measured using PIV and high-resolution thermocouple data. The evolution of the velocity and density statistics is used to investigate the early-time evolution and the onset of strongly-nonlinear, transitional dynamics within the mixing layer. The early-time evolution of the density and vertical velocity variance spectra indicate that velocity fluctuations are the dominant mechanism driving the instability development. The implications of the present experimental measurements on the initialization of Reynolds-averaged turbulent transport and mixing models and of direct and large-eddy simulations of Rayleigh-Taylor instability-induced turbulence are discussed.

  20. Experimental characterization of initial conditions and spatio-temporal evolution of a small Atwood number Rayleigh-Taylor mixing layer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mueschke, N J; Andrews, M J; Schilling, O

    2005-09-26

    The initial multi-mode interfacial velocity and density perturbations present at the onset of a small Atwood number, incompressible, miscible, Rayleigh-Taylor instability-driven mixing layer have been quantified using a combination of experimental techniques. The streamwise interfacial and spanwise interfacial perturbations were measured using high-resolution thermocouples and planar laser-induced fluorescence (PLIF), respectively. The initial multi-mode streamwise velocity perturbations at the two-fluid density interface were measured using particle-image velocimetry (PIV). It was found that the measured initial conditions describe an initially anisotropic state, in which the perturbations in the streamwise and spanwise directions are independent of one another. The evolution of various fluctuating velocity and density statistics, together with velocity and density variance spectra, were measured using PIV and high-resolution thermocouple data. The evolution of the velocity and density statistics is used to investigate the early-time evolution and the onset of strongly-nonlinear, transitional dynamics within the mixing layer. The early-time evolution of the density and vertical velocity variance spectra indicate that velocity fluctuations are the dominant mechanism driving the instability development. The implications of the present experimental measurements on the initialization of Reynolds-averaged turbulent transport and mixing models and of direct and large-eddy simulations of Rayleigh-Taylor instability-induced turbulence are discussed.

  1. Predicting Failure Under Laboratory Conditions: Learning the Physics of Slow Frictional Slip and Dynamic Failure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rouet-Leduc, B.; Hulbert, C.; Riviere, J.; Lubbers, N.; Barros, K.; Marone, C.; Johnson, P. A.

    2016-12-01

    Forecasting failure is a primary goal in diverse domains that include earthquake physics, materials science, nondestructive evaluation of materials and other engineering applications. Due to the highly complex physics of material failure and limitations on gathering data in the failure nucleation zone, this goal has often appeared out of reach; however, recent advances in instrumentation sensitivity, instrument density and data analysis show promise toward forecasting failure times. Here, we show that we can predict frictional failure times of both slow and fast stick slip failure events in the laboratory. This advance is made possible by applying a machine learning approach known as Random Forests1(RF) to the continuous acoustic emission (AE) time series recorded by detectors located on the fault blocks. The RF is trained using a large number of statistical features derived from the AE time series signal. The model is then applied to data not previously analyzed. Remarkably, we find that the RF method predicts upcoming failure time far in advance of a stick slip event, based only on a short time window of data. Further, the algorithm accurately predicts the time of the beginning and end of the next slip event. The predicted time improves as failure is approached, as other data features add to prediction. Our results show robust predictions of slow and dynamic failure based on acoustic emissions from the fault zone throughout the laboratory seismic cycle. The predictions are based on previously unidentified tremor-like acoustic signals that occur during stress build up and the onset of macroscopic frictional weakening. We suggest that the tremor-like signals carry information about fault zone processes and allow precise predictions of failure at any time in the slow slip or stick slip cycle2. If the laboratory experiments represent Earth frictional conditions, it could well be that signals are being missed that contain highly useful predictive information. 1Breiman

  2. Weaknesses in executive functioning predict the initiating of adolescents’ alcohol use.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peeters, Margot; Janssen, T.; Monshouwer, Karin; Boendermaker, Wouter; Pronk, Thomas; Wiers, Reinout; Vollebergh, Wilma

    2015-01-01

    Recently, it has been suggested that impairments in executive functioning might be risk factors for the onset of alcohol use rather than a result of heavy alcohol use. In the present study, we examined whether two aspects of executive functioning, working memory and response inhibition, predicted th

  3. The Independent Living Scales in civil competency evaluations: initial findings and prediction of competency adjudication.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quickel, Emalee J W; Demakis, George J

    2013-06-01

    We address a gap in the literature on civil competency by examining characteristics of those who undergo civil competency evaluations and how well Managing Money and Health and Safety subscales of the Independent Living Scales (ILS) predict legal competency adjudications. We were also interested whether these subscales are more accurate in making such predictions than the Mini-Mental State Examination and Trail-Making Test, Parts A and B, well-known measures of neuropsychological functioning. Actual legal competency decisions were obtained from public court records on 71 individuals with either mental retardation/borderline intellectual functioning (MR/BIF) or psychiatric, neurological, or combined psychiatric or neurological diagnoses. We found that those with neurological diagnoses performed significantly better on the Trail-Making Test, Part A, than the MR/BIF and combined neurological and psychiatric groups, and they demonstrated trends in the same direction for other measures. Both ILS subscales performed better than the cognitive measures, in terms of both hit rate and predictive value, in predicting ultimate judicial decision-making about competency. These findings are particularly relevant for clinicians who must decide what measures to include in an assessment battery in civil competency evaluations.

  4. Sudden pore pressure rise and rapid landslide initiation induced under extreme rainfall conditions - a case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fukuoka, Hiroshi; Wang, Fawu; Wang, Gonghui

    2010-05-01

    Since July 19 to 26, 2009, western Japan had a severe rainstorms and caused floods and landslides. Most of the landslides are debris slide - debris flows. Most devastated case took place in Hofu city, Japan. On July 21, extremely intense rainstorm caused numerous debris flows and mud flows in the hillslopes Some of the debris flows destroyed residential houses and home for elderly people, and finally killed 14 residents. Debris flow distribution map was prepared soon based on airphoto interpretation. Japanese Meteorological Agency runs nation-wide ground-based rain gauge network as well as radar rain gauges, which provide hourly to 10 minutes precipitation distribution real-time with spatial resolution of about 5 km. Distribution of daily (cumulative) precipitation of July 21 shows (1) The cumulative precipitation from 6 am -- 12 am of the day was evaluated that their return period could be 200 - 600 years statistically. In 2009, another extraordinary rainfall, of which intensity was evaluated as less than 100 years more more, caused floods in another city claiming many residents lives on the way to evacuation area. Those frequent extraordinary extreme rainfall is not concluded as the consequence of global warming nor climate change, however, those frequency of extreme rainfall events affecting societies are obviously increasing in Japan, too. As for the Hofu city case, it was proved that debris flows took place in the high precipitation area and covered by covered by weathered granite sands and silts which is called "masa". This sands has been proved susceptible against landslides under extreme rainfall conditions. However, the transition from slide - debris flow process is not well revealed, except authors past experiment on the similar masa samples in June 1999 Hiroshima debris flow case. Authors have embedded pore pressure control system for the undrained ring shear apparatus. Strongly weathered sandy soils were sampled just on the smooth and flat granitic

  5. Probing the initial conditions of high-mass star formation. II. Fragmentation, stability, and chemistry

    CERN Document Server

    Pillai, T; Wyrowski, F; Hatchell, J; Gibb, A G; Thompson, M A

    2011-01-01

    We present a new high-resolution study of pre-protocluster regions in tracers exclusively probing the coldest and dense gas (NH_2D). The data are used to constrain the chemical, thermal, kinematic, and physical conditions (i.e., densities) in G29.96e and G35.20w. NH_3, NH_2D, and continuum emission were mapped using the VLA, and PdBI. In particular, NH_2D is a unique tracer of cold, precluster gas at high densities, while NH_3 traces both the cold and warm gas of modest-to-high densities. In G29.96e, Spitzer images reveal two massive filaments, one of them in extinction (infrared dark cloud). We observe very low line widths in NH_3 (FWHM 6%), which make the above discoveries possible; (vi) and the destruction of NH_2D toward embedded stars. [abridged

  6. Assessment of Initial Test Conditions for Experiments to Assess Irradiation Assisted Stress Corrosion Cracking Mechanisms

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Busby, Jeremy T [ORNL; Gussev, Maxim N [ORNL

    2011-04-01

    Irradiation-assisted stress corrosion cracking is a key materials degradation issue in today s nuclear power reactor fleet and affects critical structural components within the reactor core. The effects of increased exposure to irradiation, stress, and/or coolant can substantially increase susceptibility to stress-corrosion cracking of austenitic steels in high-temperature water environments. . Despite 30 years of experience, the underlying mechanisms of IASCC are unknown. Extended service conditions will increase the exposure to irradiation, stress, and corrosive environment for all core internal components. The objective of this effort within the Light Water Reactor Sustainability program is to evaluate the response and mechanisms of IASCC in austenitic stainless steels with single variable experiments. A series of high-value irradiated specimens has been acquired from the past international research programs, providing a valuable opportunity to examine the mechanisms of IASCC. This batch of irradiated specimens has been received and inventoried. In addition, visual examination and sample cleaning has been completed. Microhardness testing has been performed on these specimens. All samples show evidence of hardening, as expected, although the degree of hardening has saturated and no trend with dose is observed. Further, the change in hardening can be converted to changes in mechanical properties. The calculated yield stress is consistent with previous data from light water reactor conditions. In addition, some evidence of changes in deformation mode was identified via examination of the microhardness indents. This analysis may provide further insights into the deformation mode under larger scale tests. Finally, swelling analysis was performed using immersion density methods. Most alloys showed some evidence of swelling, consistent with the expected trends for this class of alloy. The Hf-doped alloy showed densification rather than swelling. This observation may be

  7. ENSO response to high-latitude volcanic eruptions: the role of the initial conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pausata, Francesco S. R.; Caballero, Rodrigo; Battisti, David S.

    2016-04-01

    Large volcanic eruptions can have major impacts on global climate affecting both atmospheric and ocean circulation through changes in atmospheric chemical composition and optical properties. The residence time of volcanic aerosol from strong eruptions is around 2-3 years and attention has consequently focused on their short-term impacts, and in particular on tropical eruptions. The long-term, ocean-mediated response has been less studied and large uncertainties remain. Moreover, studies have largely focused on tropical eruptions; high-latitude eruptions have drawn less attention because their impacts have been thought to be merely hemispheric rather than global and no study has hitherto investigated the long-term effects of such eruptions. Here we use a climate model to show that large summer high-latitude eruptions in the Northern Hemisphere could cause an El Niño-like anomaly in the equatorial Pacific during the first 8-9 months after the start of the eruption owing to a strong hemispheric cooling. The hemispherically asymmetric cooling shifts the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone southwards, triggering a weakening of the trade winds over the western and central equatorial Pacific that leads to an El Niño-like anomaly. However, the El Niño-like anomaly strongly depends on the initial ENSO state: a 3-time larger response is shown when the climate system is going towards a La Niña compared to when is going towards an El Niño. Finally, the eruption also leads to a strengthening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in the first twenty-five years after the eruption, followed by a weakening lasting at least 35 years. The long-lived changes in the AMOC strength also alter the variability of El Niño-Southern Oscillation.

  8. Comparative estimation and assessment of initial soil moisture conditions for Flash Flood warning in Saxony

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luong, Thanh Thi; Kronenberg, Rico; Bernhofer, Christian; Janabi, Firas Al; Schütze, Niels

    2017-04-01

    Flash Floods are known as highly destructive natural hazards due to their sudden appearance and severe consequences. In Saxony/Germany flash floods occur in small and medium catchments of low mountain ranges which are typically ungauged. Besides rainfall and orography, pre-event moisture is decisive, as it determines the available natural retention in the catchment. The Flash Flood Guidance concept according to WMO and Prof. Marco Borga (University of Padua) will be adapted to incorporate pre-event moisture in real-time flood forecast within the ESF EXTRUSO project (SAB-Nr. 100270097). To arrive at pre-event moisture for the complete area of the low mountain range with flash flood potential, a widely applicable, accurate but yet simple approach is needed. Here, we use radar precipitation as input time series, detailed orographic, land-use and soil information and a lumped parameter model to estimate the overall catchment soil moisture and potential retention. When combined with rainfall forecast and its intrinsic uncertainty, the approach allows to find the point in time when precipitation exceeds the retention potential of the catchment. Then, spatially distributed and complex hydrological modeling and additional measurements can be initiated. Assuming reasonable rainfall forecasts of 24 to 48hrs, this part can start up to two days in advance of the actual event. The lumped-parameter model BROOK90 is used and tested for well observed catchments. First, physical meaningful parameters (like albedo or soil porosity) a set according to standards and second, "free" parameters (like percentage of lateral flow) were calibrated objectively by PEST (Model-Independent Parameter Estimation and Uncertainty Analysis) with the target on evapotranspiration and soil moisture which both have been measured at the study site Anchor Station Tharandt in Saxony/Germany. Finally, first results are presented for the Wernersbach catchment in Tharandt forest for main flood events in the 50

  9. New in vitro dermal absorption database and the prediction of dermal absorption under finite conditions for risk assessment purposes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Buist, H.E.; Burgsteden, J.A. van; Freidig, A.P.; Maas, W.J.M.; Sandt, J.J.M. van de

    2010-01-01

    Most QSARs for dermal absorption predict the permeability coefficient, Kp, of a molecule, which is valid for infinite dose conditions. In practice, dermal exposure mostly occurs under finite dose conditions. Therefore, a simple model to predict finite dose dermal absorption from infinite

  10. Empirical equations to predict conditions for solid deposition in small diameter pipelines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Papavinasam, S.; Doiron, A.; Revie, W. [Natural Resources Canada, Ottawa, ON (Canada). CANMET Materials Technology Lab

    2007-03-15

    Corrosion of steels is a major concern for the integrity of pipelines. Corrosion is caused by the combined influence of oil, water, carbon dioxide, hydrogen sulfide, temperature, pressure, and flow. Since localized corrosion is one of the more frequent problems, this study investigated how sand affects localized corrosion on an operating carbon and low-alloy steel pipeline. The objective was to determine critical flow rates in smaller diameter pipeline in which solid deposition occurs as a function of pipe position, inclination, and flow rate. Experimental results, video analysis and empirical equations revealed that under high-flow conditions, the sand impinges on the pipe, causing erosion-corrosion. Under low-flow conditions, the sand deposits at localized areas of the pipeline resulting in underfilm corrosion and preventing access of the inhibitor to the surface. The creation of small anode-large cathode areas may also contribute to this higher pitting corrosion rate in the presence of sand. It was also shown that the pipe diameter, inclination, expansion, and fluid flow rate determine whether sand will deposit or not. No guidelines currently exist to predict critical flow below which solid deposition occurs. As such, it is important to predict the conditions at which sand deposits. 6 refs., 2 tabs., 2 figs.

  11. A Combined Thermodynamic and Kinetic Model for Barite Prediction at Oil Reservoir Conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhen Wu, Bi Yun

    of the literature (PhD Study 1). The reviewed dataset was used as starting point for geochemical speciation modelling and applied to predict the stability of sulphate minerals in North Sea oil field brines. Second, for modelling of high salinity solutions using the Pitzer ion interaction approach, the temperature......In marine environments, barite (BaSO4) is a key proxy that has been used for understanding the biological and chemical evolution of oceans and for tracking the origin of fluids. In the oil industry, barite scale can clog pipelines and pores in the reservoirs, reducing oil yield. The goal...... of this research was to develop a model, based on thermodynamics and kinetics, for predicting barite precipitation rates in saline waters at the pressures and temperatures of oil bearing reservoirs, using the geochemical modelling code PHREEQC. This task is complicated by the conditions where traditional methods...

  12. Computational analysis for prediction of pressure of PWR presurizer undertransient conditions

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    A computer model has been developed for prediction of the pressure in thepressurizer undertransient conditions. In the model three separate thermodynamic regions which arenot required to be inthermal equilibrium have been considered. The mathematical model derived from the general conservation equations includesall of theimportant thermal-hydraulics phenomena occurring in the pressurizer,i.e., stratificationof the hot water andincoming cold water, bulk flashing and condensation, wall condensation, andinterfacial heat and masstransfer, etc. The bubble rising and rain-out models are developed to describe bulkflashing andcondensation, respectively. To obtain the wall condensation rate, a one-dimensionalheat conductionequation is solved by the pivoting method. The presented model will predict thepressure-time behaviorof a PWR pressurizer during a variety of transients. The results obtained from the proposed mathematical model are in good agreementwithavailable data on the CHASHMA nuclear power plant's pressurizer performance.

  13. Prediction of air temperature in the aircraft cabin under different operational conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fišer J.

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with the prediction of the air temperature in the aircraft cabin by means of Computational Fluid Dynamics. The simulations are performed on the CFD model which is based on geometry and cabin interior arrangement of the Flight Test Facility (FTF located at Fraunhofer IBP, Germany. The experimental test flights under three different cabin temperatures were done in FTF and the various data were gathered during these flights. Air temperature in the cabin was measured on probes located near feet, torso and head of each passenger and also surface temperature and air temperature distributed from inlets were measured. The data were firstly analysed in order to obtain boundary conditions for cabin surfaces and inlets. Then the results of air temperature from the simulations were compared with measured data. The suitability and accuracy of the CFD approach for temperature prediction is discussed.

  14. Solution of the quantum initial value problem with transparent boundary conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puga, A.; Miller, B. N.

    2013-01-01

    Many systems of interest at the forefront of technological development, for example, in quantum computation, consist of weakly interacting elements that obey quantum mechanics. A challenge for modern theoretical physics is to develop a systematic methodology for approaching these "open" quantum systems. In particular, applied mathematicians have formulated the method of transparent boundary conditions (TBCs) to model interacting quantum systems of infinite extent. Here, we consider a particular application of TBCs to the escape of a particle from a one-dimensional infinite well when one of the bounding barriers is extinguished. We analytically obtain the exact time-dependent wave function by a Green's function method and then show that a numerical solution based on the TBC method is in excellent agreement. This work was motivated by an experiment carried out at the University of Texas on escape from a gravitational wedge billiard. Physicists have used billiards to understand and explore both classical and quantum chaos. Although the original experiment was carried out in the classical regime, current work is probing lower temperatures, where a quantum mechanical formulation is required.

  15. Initial Experience of the Feasibility of Single-Incision Laparoscopic Appendectomy in Different Clinical Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jyrki Kössi

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. Single-incision laparoscopic surgery (SILS is a new technique developed for performing operations without a visible scar. Preliminary studies have reported the use of the technique mainly in cholecystectomy and appendectomy. We evaluated the feasibility of the technique in various appendicitis conditions including children, fertile women and obese patients. Materials and Methods. SILS technique was used in a random sample of patients hospitalised for suspected appendicitis. The ordinary diagnostic laparoscopy was performed and the appendix was removed if needed. The ligation of appendix was performed by thread loop, absorbable clip or endoscopic stapler. The details regarding the recovery of patients were collected prospectively. Results. Ten SILS procedures were performed without conversions or complications. The patient series included uncomplicated and complicated appendicitis patients. The mean age of the patients was 37 years (range 13–63, mean BMI was 26 (range 18–31, mean operative time was 40 minutes (range 18–31, and mean postoperative stay was 2 days (range 1–5. Conclusions. SILS technique is feasible for obese patients, uncomplicated and complicated appendicitis as well as for exploratory laparoscopy. Most common methods to ligate appendix are feasible with SILS technique. The true benefit of the technique should be assessed by randomised controlled trials.

  16. Effect of Initial Condition on Subsonic Jet Noise from Two Rectangular Nozzles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaman, K. B. M. Q.

    2012-01-01

    Differences in jet noise data from two small 8:1 aspect ratio nozzles are investigated experimentally. The interiors of the two nozzles are identical but one has a thin-lip at the exit while the has a perpendicular face at the exit (thick-lip). It is found that the thin-lip nozzle is substantially noisier throughout the subsonic Mach number range. As much as 5dB difference in OASPL is noticed around Mj =0.96. Hot-wire measurements are carried out for the characteristics of the exit boundary layer and, overall, the noise difference can be ascribed to differences in the boundary layer state. The boundary layer of the quieter (thick-lip) nozzle goes through transition around M(sub j) =0.25 and at higher M(sub j) it remains "nominally turbulent". In comparison, the boundary layer of the thin-lip nozzle is found to remain "nominally laminar". at high subsonic conditions. The nominally laminar state involves significantly larger turbulence intensities commensurate with the higher radiated noise.

  17. Microstructure-based approach for predicting crack initiation and early growth in metals.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cox, James V.; Emery, John M.; Brewer, Luke N.; Reedy, Earl David, Jr.; Puskar, Joseph David; Bartel, Timothy James; Dingreville, Remi P. M.; Foulk, James W., III; Battaile, Corbett Chandler; Boyce, Brad Lee

    2009-09-01

    Fatigue cracking in metals has been and is an area of great importance to the science and technology of structural materials for quite some time. The earliest stages of fatigue crack nucleation and growth are dominated by the microstructure and yet few models are able to predict the fatigue behavior during these stages because of a lack of microstructural physics in the models. This program has developed several new simulation tools to increase the microstructural physics available for fatigue prediction. In addition, this program has extended and developed microscale experimental methods to allow the validation of new microstructural models for deformation in metals. We have applied these developments to fatigue experiments in metals where the microstructure has been intentionally varied.

  18. Aldosterone does not predict cardiovascular events following acute coronary syndrome in patients initially without heart failure

    OpenAIRE

    Pitts, Reynaria; Gunzburger, Elise; Ballantyne, Christie M.; Barter, Philip J.; Kallend, David; Leiter, Lawrence A.; Leitersdorf, Eran; Nicholls, Stephen J.; Prediman K Shah; Tardif, Jean-Claude; Olsson, Anders G.; McMurray, John J.V.; Kittelson, John; Schwartz, Gregory G.

    2017-01-01

    Background: Aldosterone may have adverse effects in the myocardium and vasculature. Treatment with an aldosterone antagonist reduces cardiovascular risk in patients with acute myocardial infarction complicated by heart failure (HF) and left ventricular systolic dysfunction. However, most patients with acute coronary syndrome do not have advanced HF. Among such patients, it is unknown whether aldosterone predicts cardiovascular risk.\\ud \\ud Methods and Results: To address this question, we exa...

  19. Conditioned cortical reactivity to cues predicting cigarette-related or pleasant images.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deweese, Menton M; Robinson, Jason D; Cinciripini, Paul M; Versace, Francesco

    2016-03-01

    Through Pavlovian conditioning, reward-associated neutral stimuli can acquire incentive salience and motivate complex behaviors. In smokers, cigarette-associated cues may induce cravings and trigger smoking. Understanding the brain mechanisms underlying conditioned responses to cigarette-associated relative to other inherently pleasant stimuli might contribute to the development of more effective smoking cessation treatments that emphasize the rehabilitation of reward circuitry. Here we measured brain responses to geometric patterns (the conditioned stimuli, CSs) predicting cigarette-related, intrinsically pleasant and neutral images (the unconditioned stimuli, USs) using event-related potentials (ERPs) in 29 never-smokers, 20 nicotine-deprived smokers, and 19 non-deprived smokers. Results showed that during US presentation, cigarette-related and pleasant images prompted higher cortical positivity than neutral images over centro-parietal sensors between 400 and 800ms post-US onset (late positive potential, LPP). The LPP evoked by pleasant images was significantly larger than the LPP evoked by cigarette images. During CS presentation, ERPs evoked by geometric patterns predicting pleasant and cigarette-related images had significantly larger amplitude than ERPs evoked by CSs predicting neutral images. These effects were maximal over right parietal sites between 220 and 240ms post-CS onset and over occipital and frontal sites between 308 and 344ms post-CS onset. Smoking status did not modulate these effects. Our results show that stimuli with no intrinsic reward value (e.g., geometric patterns) may acquire rewarding properties through repeated pairings with established reward cues (i.e., cigarette-related, intrinsically pleasant).

  20. XBeach-G: a tool for predicting gravel barrier response to extreme storm conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masselink, Gerd; Poate, Tim; McCall, Robert; Roelvink, Dano; Russell, Paul; Davidson, Mark

    2014-05-01

    Gravel beaches protect low-lying back-barrier regions from flooding during storm events and their importance to society is widely acknowledged. Unfortunately, breaching and extensive storm damage has occurred at many gravel sites and this is likely to increase as a result of sea-level rise and enhanced storminess due to climate change. Limited scientific guidance is currently available to provide beach managers with operational management tools to predict the response of gravel beaches to storms. The New Understanding and Prediction of Storm Impacts on Gravel beaches (NUPSIG) project aims to improve our understanding of storm impacts on gravel coastal environments and to develop a predictive capability by modelling these impacts. The NUPSIG project uses a 5-pronged approach to address its aim: (1) analyse hydrodynamic data collected during a proto-type laboratory experiment on a gravel beach; (2) collect hydrodynamic field data on a gravel beach under a range of conditions, including storm waves with wave heights up to 3 m; (3) measure swash dynamics and beach response on 10 gravel beaches during extreme wave conditions with wave heights in excess of 3 m; (4) use the data collected under 1-3 to develop and validate a numerical model to model hydrodynamics and morphological response of gravel beaches under storm conditions; and (5) develop a tool for end-users, based on the model formulated under (4), for predicting storm response of gravel beaches and barriers. The aim of this presentation is to present the key results of the NUPSIG project and introduce the end-user tool for predicting storm response on gravel beaches. The model is based on the numerical model XBeach, and different forcing scenarios (wave and tides), barrier configurations (dimensions) and sediment characteristics are easily uploaded for model simulations using a Graphics User Interface (GUI). The model can be used to determine the vulnerability of gravel barriers to storm events, but can also be