WorldWideScience

Sample records for imminent military epidemic

  1. Molecular Mechanisms and Treatment Strategies for Obesity-Associated Coronary Artery Disease, an Imminent Military Epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    2006-12-01

    clinically silent , advanced lesions are the critical stage of human atherosclerosis. They are the precursor to plaque rupture and acute thrombotic...present), 1-2 students and 1 fellow Attending in Combined Endocrine/Diabetes, Thyroid , and Lipid Clinics (1987-present), 1-2 students and 1-2 clinical

  2. Molecular Mechanisms and Treatment Strategies for Obesity-Associated Coronary Artery Disease, an Imminent Military Epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-12-01

    inflammation, hepatic steatosis , and atherosclerosis in mice. J Nutr. 2007;137(7):1776-1782. 26. Jehle AW, Gardai SJ, Li S, L insel-Nitschke P, Morimoto K...Martinez-Clemente M, Lopez-Parra M, Arroyo V, Claria J. Obesity-induced insulin resistance and hepatic steatosis are alleviat ed by ome ga-3 fatty acids: a...impaired hepatic insulin sensitivity and respond only partially to PPARγ agonists. Adiponectin-mediated metabolic improvements are associated with

  3. Molecular Mechanisms and Treatment Strategies for Obesity-Associated Coronary Artery Disease, an Imminent Military Epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    2007-12-01

    in response to another ‘hit.’ This two-hit model of UPR-induced apoptosis is critical to understanding how FC enrichment kills macrophages. In this...Schering- Plough Research Grant, 1989-1995, Responsible Investigator, $50,000 per annum Individual National Research Supplement Award for Postdoctoral...Association grant-in-aid study section (1994) Consultant for Merck, Schering- Plough , Warner-Lambert, Berlex, Eli Lilly, Pfizer, Talaria Biotech, ReddyUS

  4. Molecular Mechanisms and Treatment Strategies for Obesity-Associated Coronary Artery Disease, an Imminent Military Epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-12-01

    conjugated annexin V (green) and propidium iodine ( orange ), respectively. Representative merged fluorescence and bright-field images and quantitative data...Serotec (Oxford, UK). Scrambled and Stat3 siRNA species were from Qiagen ( Valencia , CA). siRNA #1 (SI01435287) and #2 (SI01435301) were designed from...Higgins,D.E., Daly,M.J., Bloom ,B.R., and Kramnik,I. 2005. Ipr1 gene mediates innate immunity to tuberculosis. Nature 434:767-772. 19 at C

  5. Landscape changes in the environment due to military actions and their epidemic risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krushelnitsky A.D.

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available The article considers the influence of the military-ecological and man-caused-anthropogenic factors on the environment state and natural processes. Epidemic risks and consequences resulted from landscapic changes of the environment which arise as a result of war and destruction of ecosystems are described.

  6. Dengue Fever in American Military Personnel in the Philippines: Clinical Observations on Hospitalized Patients during a 1984 Epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    1989-03-01

    the mean maximum temperature was Hypotenson 15 (62.5) 102.0 + 1.3 F. A "saddle back" or dip- Rash (Non- Petechial ) 13 (54.2) hasic fever pattern was not...DENGUE FEVER IN AMERICAN MILITARY PERSONNEL IN THE PHILIPPINES: CLINICAL OBSERVATIONS ON HOSPITALIZED PATIENS DURING A 1984 EPIDEMIC C.G. Hayes, T.F...Accession Tr~I Jti ti DENGUE FEVER IN AMERICAN MILITARY PERSONNEL IN THE PHILIPPINES: CLINICAL OBSERVATIONS ON HOSPITALIZED PATIENTS DURING A 1984

  7. 13 CFR 115.69 - Imminent Breach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... an Imminent Breach of the terms of a Contract covered by an SBA guaranteed bond. The PSB Surety does... 13 Business Credit and Assistance 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Imminent Breach. 115.69 Section... Surety Bond (PSB) Guarantees § 115.69 Imminent Breach. (a) No prior approval requirement. SBA will...

  8. [Rift Valley fever: sporadic infection of French military personnel outside currently recognized epidemic zones].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Durand, J P; Richecoeur, L; Peyrefitte, C; Boutin, J P; Davoust, B; Zeller, H; Bouloy, M; Tolou, H

    2002-01-01

    For three years the arbovirus surveillance unit of the Tropical Medicine Institute of the French Army Medical Corps (French acronym IMTSSA) in Marseille, France has been investigating causes of benign non-malarial febrile syndromes in French military personnel serving outside mainland France. The methodology used in N'Djamena consisted of sending frozen specimens collected concomitant with viremia, to Marseille for culture. During the rainy season of 2001, specimens were collected from a total of 50 febrile soldiers. Cultures allowed isolation and identification of two strains of Rift Valley virus. The risk of contamination exists not only in the field but also in mainland hospital departments treating infected patients. Routine serological diagnosis for Rift Valley fever must be DISCUSSED for all patients in the field or returning from Africa.

  9. Does imminent threat capture and hold attention?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koster, Ernst H W; Crombez, Geert; Van Damme, Stefaan; Verschuere, Bruno; De Houwer, Jan

    2004-09-01

    According to models of attention and emotion, threat captures and holds attention. In behavioral tasks, robust evidence has been found for attentional holding but not for attentional capture by threat. An important explanation for the absence of attentional capture effects is that the visual stimuli used posed no genuine threat. The present study investigated whether visual cues that signal an aversive white noise can elicit attentional capture and holding effects. Cues presented in an attentional task were simultaneously provided with a threat value through an aversive conditioning procedure. Response latencies showed that threatening cues captured and held attention. These results support recent views on attention to threat, proposing that imminent threat captures attention in everyone. (c) 2004 APA, all rights reserved

  10. Using GPS to Detect Imminent Tsunamis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Y. Tony

    2009-01-01

    A promising method of detecting imminent tsunamis and estimating their destructive potential involves the use of Global Positioning System (GPS) data in addition to seismic data. Application of the method is expected to increase the reliability of global tsunami-warning systems, making it possible to save lives while reducing the incidence of false alarms. Tsunamis kill people every year. The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami killed about 230,000 people. The magnitude of an earthquake is not always a reliable indication of the destructive potential of a tsunami. The 2004 Indian Ocean quake generated a huge tsunami, while the 2005 Nias (Indonesia) quake did not, even though both were initially estimated to be of the similar magnitude. Between 2005 and 2007, five false tsunami alarms were issued worldwide. Such alarms result in negative societal and economic effects. GPS stations can detect ground motions of earthquakes in real time, as frequently as every few seconds. In the present method, the epicenter of an earthquake is located by use of data from seismometers, then data from coastal GPS stations near the epicenter are used to infer sea-floor displacements that precede a tsunami. The displacement data are used in conjunction with local topographical data and an advanced theory to quantify the destructive potential of a tsunami on a new tsunami scale, based on the GPS-derived tsunami energy, much like the Richter Scale used for earthquakes. An important element of the derivation of the advanced theory was recognition that horizontal sea-floor motions contribute much more to generation of tsunamis than previously believed. The method produces a reliable estimate of the destructive potential of a tsunami within minutes typically, well before the tsunami reaches coastal areas. The viability of the method was demonstrated in computational tests in which the method yielded accurate representations of three historical tsunamis for which well-documented ground

  11. The Dynamic of Work Meaning on the Privatization Imminence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcia Prezotti Palassi

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to show the dynamic of the work meaning on the privatization imminence of a Brazilian sanitation company. The discussion is based on the (MOW, 1987 ideas about construction of work meaning and Tajfel (1981 about to belong to social groups. The emphasis on imminence is based on the Figueiredo and Viana (1982 understanding that the continuous expectation of frustration generates a differentiated impact related to a previously defined situation. Data collection procedure was carried out through participant observation and questionnaires. Quantitative data were analyzed by using descriptive statistics and qualitative data by using content analysis. The results revealed a dynamic that fragments the work meanings on the imminence of privatization and presents itself associated with different meanings and aspects of the situation. It is proposed that the fragmentation of work meaning on the imminence of certain situations can be repeated in other contemporary contexts.

  12. Imminent adopters of electronic health records in ambulatory care

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rainu Kaushal

    2009-03-01

    Conclusions Imminent adopters of EHRs differed from users and non-users. Financial considerations appear to play a major role in adoption decisions. Knowledge of these differences may assist policymakers and healthcare leaders as they work to increase EHR adoption rates.

  13. 16 CFR 1101.42 - Imminent hazard exception.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 16 Commercial Practices 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Imminent hazard exception. 1101.42 Section 1101.42 Commercial Practices CONSUMER PRODUCT SAFETY COMMISSION CONSUMER PRODUCT SAFETY ACT REGULATIONS... court. Once the exception applies, information may be disclosed to the public while the proceeding is...

  14. The benefits of progesterone therapy in imminent abortion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Abadi

    2005-12-01

    Full Text Available The causes of imminent abortion are multi-factorial. The biggest causal factor is the low level of serum progesterone level. The lowest critical level of serum progesterone for survivability of pregnancy is 10 ng/ml. Eighty percent of patients experiencing abortion showed that their progesterone level was < 10 ng/ml. Patients who realized that their pregnancy would experience hemorrhage generally would suffer from depression. Stress was one of the factors responsible for the occurence of abortion. Administration of natural progesterone substitution (not  progestogen accelerates the disappearance of uterine contractions, and speeds up the stoppage of bleeding. In addition, progesterone has the effect of anti-anxiety. Adminstration of oral progesterone would result in metabolism in the intestine and liver, such that physiological level of serum progesterone could not be reached, while administration of suppositoria progesterone would result in physiological level of serum, such that it was effective to prevent imminent abortion. (Med J Indones 2005; 14:258-62Keywords: progesterone, imminent abortion

  15. 25 CFR 1000.302 - “What is imminent jeopardy” to a trust asset?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    .../or Federal law while performing trust functions if the disregard creates such an immediate threat. ... 25 Indians 2 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false âWhat is imminent jeopardyâ to a trust asset? 1000.302...-DETERMINATION AND EDUCATION ACT Reassumption § 1000.302 “What is imminent jeopardy” to a trust asset? Imminent...

  16. Epidemic typhus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bechah, Yassina; Capo, Christian; Mege, Jean-Louis; Raoult, Didier

    2008-07-01

    Epidemic typhus is transmitted to human beings by the body louse Pediculus humanus corporis. The disease is still considered a major threat by public-health authorities, despite the efficacy of antibiotics, because poor sanitary conditions are conducive to louse proliferation. Until recently, Rickettsia prowazekii, the causal agent, was thought to be confined to human beings and their body lice. Since 1975, R prowazekii infection in human beings has been related to contact with the flying squirrel Glaucomys volans in the USA. Moreover, Brill-Zinsser disease, a relapsed form of epidemic typhus that appears as sporadic cases many years after the initial infection, is unrelated to louse infestation. Stress or a waning immune system are likely to reactivate this earlier persistent infection, which could be the source of new epidemics when conditions facilitate louse infestation. Finally, R prowazekii is a potential category B bioterrorism agent, because it is stable in dried louse faeces and can be transmitted through aerosols. An increased understanding of the pathogenesis of epidemic typhus may be useful for protection against this bacterial threat.

  17. Signs Indicating Imminent Death in Escherichia coli-Infected Broilers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthijs, M G R; Nieuwenhuis, J F; Dwars, R M

    2017-09-01

    Broilers were observed during 9 days for clinical signs after intratracheal inoculation at 8 days of age with 10 7 E. coli 506. It was determined if these signs were predictive for imminent death. Hourly observations were made daily from a distance of 1-2 m and nightly by camera observation, with respect to the following parameters: level of attention, locomotory activity, posture and appearance, interaction, and impairment of respiration. For deviations of the normal state for these five parameters (i.e., typical clinical signs of disease), scores were defined in up to four classes. The periods of time elapsing from attaining a score for the first time to death were registered per bird for each score for each parameter. Of 114 birds, 85 did not present typical signs of illness as described, and 29 presented the following clinical history: 25 died after presenting signs of illness, 2 died without previous signs, 1 fell ill but survived, and 1 fell ill and recovered. Extended clinical examination was performed in birds presenting clinical signs; temperature, heart rate, respiratory rate, and subcutaneous capillary refill time were measured. The level of attention, and posture and appearance were affected most often in ill birds; 25% of these birds died within 5 and 4 hr, respectively; 50% died within 12 hr; and 75% died within 20 and 19 hr, respectively. Any of these typical signs of illness visible from 1-2 m indicated imminent death, with 75% of the birds dying within 20 hr. Measurements resulting from extended clinical examination proved of lesser predictive value. From these observations, a protocol for intervention to prevent animal suffering may be designed.

  18. 21 CFR 2.5 - Imminent hazard to the public health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Imminent hazard to the public health. 2.5 Section... GENERAL ADMINISTRATIVE RULINGS AND DECISIONS General Provisions § 2.5 Imminent hazard to the public health... a significant threat of danger to health, creates a public health situation (1) that should be...

  19. Battered Women and the Requirement of Imminence in Self-Defence

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Should the South African courts abolish the traditional imminence standard, something must be used to stand in its place. The identification of the various alternatives which have been suggested to replace imminence - most notably the establishment of the "reasonable woman standard" as advanced in the case of S v ...

  20. Imminent Cardiac Risk Assessment via Optical Intravascular Biochemical Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wetzel, D.; Wetzel, L; Wetzel, M; Lodder, R

    2009-01-01

    Heart disease is by far the biggest killer in the United States, and type II diabetes, which affects 8% of the U.S. population, is on the rise. In many cases, the acute coronary syndrome and/or sudden cardiac death occurs without warning. Atherosclerosis has known behavioral, genetic and dietary risk factors. However, our laboratory studies with animal models and human post-mortem tissue using FT-IR microspectroscopy reveal the chemical microstructure within arteries and in the arterial walls themselves. These include spectra obtained from the aortas of ApoE-/- knockout mice on sucrose and normal diets showing lipid deposition in the former case. Also pre-aneurysm chemical images of knockout mouse aorta walls, and spectra of plaque excised from a living human patient are shown for comparison. In keeping with the theme of the SPEC 2008 conference Spectroscopic Diagnosis of Disease this paper describes the background and potential value of a new catheter-based system to provide in vivo biochemical analysis of plaque in human coronary arteries. We report the following: (1) results of FT-IR microspectroscopy on animal models of vascular disease to illustrate the localized chemical distinctions between pathological and normal tissue, (2) current diagnostic techniques used for risk assessment of patients with potential unstable coronary syndromes, and (3) the advantages and limitations of each of these techniques illustrated with patent care histories, related in the first person, by the physician coauthors. Note that the physician comments clarify the contribution of each diagnostic technique to imminent cardiac risk assessment in a clinical setting, leading to the appreciation of what localized intravascular chemical analysis can contribute as an add-on diagnostic tool. The quality of medical imaging has improved dramatically since the turn of the century. Among clinical non-invasive diagnostic tools, laboratory tests of body fluids, EKG, and physical examination are

  1. Recurrent epidemic cycles driven by intervention in a population of two susceptibility types

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Juanico, Drandreb Earl O

    2014-01-01

    Epidemics have been known to persist in the form of recurrence cycles. Despite intervention efforts through vaccination and targeted social distancing, infectious diseases like influenza continue to appear intermittently over time. I have undertaken an analysis of a stochastic epidemic model to explore the hypothesis that intervention efforts actually drive epidemic cycles. Time series from simulations of the model reveal oscillations exhibiting a similar temporal signature as influenza epidemics. The power-spectral density indicates a resonant frequency, which approximately corresponds to the apparent annual seasonality of influenza in temperate zones. Asymptotic solution to the backward Kolmogorov equation of the dynamics corresponds to an exponentially-decaying mean-exit time as a function of the intervention rate. Intervention must be implemented at a sufficiently high rate to extinguish the infection. The results demonstrate that intervention efforts can induce epidemic cycles, and that the temporal signature of cycles can provide early warning of imminent outbreaks

  2. Device for detecting imminent failure of high-dielectric stress capacitors. [Patent application

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDuff, G.G.

    1980-11-05

    A device is described for detecting imminent failure of a high-dielectric stress capacitor utilizing circuitry for detecting pulse width variations and pulse magnitude variations. Inexpensive microprocessor circuitry is utilized to make numerical calculations of digital data supplied by detection circuitry for comparison of pulse width data and magnitude data to determine if preselected ranges have been exceeded, thereby indicating imminent failure of a capacitor. Detection circuitry may be incorporated in transmission lines, pulse power circuitry, including laser pulse circuitry or any circuitry where capacitors or capacitor banks are utilized.

  3. Modeling Epidemic Network Failures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ruepp, Sarah Renée; Fagertun, Anna Manolova

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents the implementation of a failure propagation model for transport networks when multiple failures occur resulting in an epidemic. We model the Susceptible Infected Disabled (SID) epidemic model and validate it by comparing it to analytical solutions. Furthermore, we evaluate...... the SID model’s behavior and impact on the network performance, as well as the severity of the infection spreading. The simulations are carried out in OPNET Modeler. The model provides an important input to epidemic connection recovery mechanisms, and can due to its flexibility and versatility be used...... to evaluate multiple epidemic scenarios in various network types....

  4. Gender Differences in Early Mother-Child Interactions: Talking about an Imminent Event.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eisenmann, Barbara

    1997-01-01

    Examines maternal modes of organizing an imminent emotional event, a brief separation from the child. Finds that the mothers displayed two ways of structuring the future event, and these different modes were related statistically to the gender of the child. Investigates how the mother directs the child's mental processes by using augments of…

  5. Barriers to ambulatory EHR: who are 'imminent adopters' and how do they differ from other physicians?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nir Menachemi

    2006-06-01

    Conclusion Policy and decision makers interested in promoting the adoption of EHR among physicians should focus on the needs and barriers of those most likely to adopt EHR. Given that imminent adopters differ considerably from their peers, current EHR incentive programmes that focus on financial barriers only might prove sub-optimal in achieving immediate widespread EHR adoption.

  6. Prediction of imminent preterm delivery in women with preterm premature rupture of membranes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Kyo Hoon; Lee, Sung Youn; Kim, Shi Nae; Jeong, Eun Ha; Oh, Kyung Joon; Ryu, Aeli

    2011-11-16

    To develop a model based on non-invasive clinical parameters to predict the probability of imminent preterm delivery (delivery within 48 h) in women with preterm premature rupture of membranes (PPROM), and to determine if additional invasive test results improve the prediction of imminent delivery based on the non-invasive model. Transvaginal ultrasonographic assessment of cervical length was performed and maternal serum C-reactive protein (CRP) and white blood cell (WBC) count were determined immediately after amniocentesis in 102 consecutive women with PPROM at 23-33+6 weeks. Amniotic fluid (AF) obtained by amniocentesis was cultured and interleukin-6 (IL-6) levels and WBC counts were determined. Serum CRP, cervical length, and gestational age were chosen for the non-invasive model (model 1), which has an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.804. When adding AF IL-6 as an invasive marker to the non-invasive model, serum CRP was excluded from the final model (model 2) as not significant, whereas AF IL-6, cervical length, and gestational age remained in model 2. No significant difference in AUC was found between models 1 and 2. The non-invasive model based on cervical length, gestational age, and serum CRP is highly predictive of imminent delivery in women with PPROM. However, invasive test results did not add predictive information to the non-invasive model in this setting.

  7. 25 CFR 224.138 - What must the Director do if a tribe's noncompliance has caused imminent jeopardy to a physical...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... noncompliance with the TERA or a Federal law has caused imminent jeopardy to a physical trust asset. ... caused imminent jeopardy to a physical trust asset? 224.138 Section 224.138 Indians BUREAU OF INDIAN... the Director do if a tribe's noncompliance has caused imminent jeopardy to a physical trust asset? If...

  8. Configuring the autism epidemic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Seeberg, Jens; Christensen, Fie Lund Lindegaard

    2017-01-01

    Autism has been described as an epidemic, but this claim is contested and may point to an awareness epidemic, i.e. changes in the definition of what autism is and more attention being invested in diagnosis leading to a rise in registered cases. The sex ratio of children diagnosed with autism...... is skewed in favour of boys, and girls with autism tend to be diagnosed much later than boys. Building and further developing the notion of ‘configuration’ of epidemics, this article explores the configuration of autism in Denmark, with a particular focus on the health system and social support to families...... with children diagnosed with autism, seen from a parental perspective. The article points to diagnostic dynamics that contribute to explaining why girls with autism are not diagnosed as easily as boys. We unfold these dynamics through the analysis of a case of a Danish family with autism....

  9. Global HIV/AIDS Epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Policy The Global HIV/AIDS Epidemic The Global HIV/AIDS Epidemic Published: Nov 29, 2017 Facebook Twitter ... 2001-FY 2018 Request The Global Response to HIV/AIDS International efforts to combat HIV began in ...

  10. Networked SIS Epidemics With Awareness

    KAUST Repository

    Paarporn, Keith; Eksin, Ceyhun; Weitz, Joshua S.; Shamma, Jeff S.

    2017-01-01

    We study a susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic process over a static contact network where the nodes have partial information about the epidemic state. They react by limiting their interactions with their neighbors when they believe

  11. epidemic teach us?

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    frequently brings shame, fear and guilt: dealing with this for some will begin a process of .... 'AZT treatment will have a limited effect on the epidemic, as we are targeting ... others to make the decisions that control my life. It is ironic that a society ...

  12. The Obesity Epidemic

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2011-07-18

    Learn about obesity and the community initiatives taking place to prevent and reduce this epidemic.  Created: 7/18/2011 by National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion, Division of Nutrition, Physical Activity and Obesity.   Date Released: 7/18/2011.

  13. Kanpur epidemic: Time course

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The first peak was related to water contamination which began in December 1990. The second peak was related to failure of municipal authorities to chlorinate water during the 2nd week of February 1991. The epidemic came under control quickly after water contamination was controlled, providing confirmation for role of ...

  14. Trauma - the malignant epidemic

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    national problem and the term 'malignant epidemic' is more applicable. These two ... In 1984 it stood at just over 400 000 per annum and today the figure is close to ... breadwinner, loss of productivity, expenses of rehabilitation and care of the ...

  15. Cyber Epidemic Models with Dependences

    OpenAIRE

    Xu, Maochao; Da, Gaofeng; Xu, Shouhuai

    2016-01-01

    Studying models of cyber epidemics over arbitrary complex networks can deepen our understanding of cyber security from a whole-system perspective. In this paper, we initiate the investigation of cyber epidemic models that accommodate the {\\em dependences} between the cyber attack events. Due to the notorious difficulty in dealing with such dependences, essentially all existing cyber epidemic models have assumed them away. Specifically, we introduce the idea of Copulas into cyber epidemic mode...

  16. Hepatitis E epidemics in India

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The first well recorded epidemic was in 1955-56 here in Delhi with nearly 30000 cases. Large outbreaks occurred in 1978 in Kashmir. My interest in this disease began in 1991 during investigations into a large epidemic of hepatitis E in Kanpur that my mentor, later Prof SR Naik, and I undertook. I will use this epidemic as an ...

  17. Detection of imminent vein graft occlusion: what is the optimal surveillance program?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tinder, Chelsey N; Bandyk, Dennis F

    2009-12-01

    The prediction of infrainguinal vein bypass failure remains an inexact judgment. Patient demographics, technical factors, and vascular laboratory graft surveillance testing are helpful in identifying a high-risk graft cohort. The optimal surveillance program to detect the bypass at risk for imminent occlusion continues to be developed, but required elements are known and include clinical assessment for new or changes in limb ischemia symptoms, measurement of ankle and/or toe systolic pressure, and duplex ultrasound imaging of the bypass graft. Duplex ultrasound assessment of bypass hemodynamics may be the most accurate method to detect imminent vein graft occlusion. The finding of low graft flow during intraoperative assessment or at a scheduled surveillance study predicts failure; and if associated with an occlusive lesion, a graft revision can prolong patency. The most common abnormality producing graft failure is conduit stenosis caused by myointimal hyperplasia; and the majority can be repaired by an endovascular intervention. Frequency of testing to detect the failing bypass should be individualized to the patient, the type of arterial bypass, and prior duplex ultrasound scan findings. The focus of surveillance is on identification of the low-flow arterial bypass and timely repair of detected critical stenosis defined by duplex velocity spectra criteria of a peak systolic velocity 300 cm/s and peak systolic velocity ratio across the stenosis >3.5-correlating with >70% diameter-reducing stenosis. When conducted appropriately, a graft surveillance program should result in an unexpected graft failure rate of <3% per year.

  18. Military Strategy vs. Military Doctrine

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barfoed, Jacob

    2015-01-01

    The article argues that while doctrine represents the more scientific side of warfare, strategy represents the artistic side. Existing doctrine will almost never meet the requirements for winning the next war; it is through the artistic application of generic peacetime doctrine to the specific st...... strategic and operational context, using doctrine as building blocks for a context specific military strategy, that the military commander outwits and defeats or coerces the adversary and achieves the military objectives....

  19. Epidemics on interconnected networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dickison, Mark; Havlin, S.; Stanley, H. E.

    2012-06-01

    Populations are seldom completely isolated from their environment. Individuals in a particular geographic or social region may be considered a distinct network due to strong local ties but will also interact with individuals in other networks. We study the susceptible-infected-recovered process on interconnected network systems and find two distinct regimes. In strongly coupled network systems, epidemics occur simultaneously across the entire system at a critical infection strength βc, below which the disease does not spread. In contrast, in weakly coupled network systems, a mixed phase exists below βc of the coupled network system, where an epidemic occurs in one network but does not spread to the coupled network. We derive an expression for the network and disease parameters that allow this mixed phase and verify it numerically. Public health implications of communities comprising these two classes of network systems are also mentioned.

  20. (Epidemic of bacillary dysentery)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Auger, P.; Pouliot, B.; De Grace, M.; Milot, C.; Lafortune, M.; Bergeron, Z.

    1981-10-01

    An outbreak of bacillary dysentery in 1978 affecting 928 persons, most of whom were living in the village of St-Jacques, PQ, is described. An epidemiologic study suggested the water supply as the source of the infection, and it was established that the water carried by the municipal aqueduct was contaminated by feces containing the causal agent, Shigella sonnei. This epidemic, the largest mentioned in he Canadian medical literature, demonstrates how contagious this infection is.

  1. Experimental evidence on formation of imminent and short-term hydrochemical precursors for earthquakes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Du Jianguo; Amita, Kazuhiro; Ohsawa, Shinji; Zhang Youlian; Kang Chunli; Yamada, Makoto

    2010-01-01

    The formation of imminent hydrochemical precursors of earthquakes is investigated by the simulation for water-rock reaction in a brittle aquifer. Sixty-one soaking experiments were carried out with granodiorite and trachyandesite grains of different sizes and three chemically-distinct waters for 6 to 168 h. The experimental data demonstrate that water-rock reaction can result in both measurable increases and decreases of ion concentrations in short times and that the extents of hydrochemical variations are controlled by the grain size, dissolution and secondary mineral precipitation, as well as the chemistry of the rock and groundwater. The results indicate that water-rock reactions in brittle aquifers and aquitards may be an important genetic mechanism of hydrochemical seismic precursors when the aquifers and aquitards are fractured in response to tectonic stress.

  2. Recent or imminent separation and intimate violence against women. A conceptual overview and some Canadian examples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sev'er, A

    1997-12-01

    The link between recent or imminent separation and violence against female partners is discussed. Interviews were conducted among 87 divorced, separated and domestic violence survivors during 1985-88 to study violence perpetrated by men against their female intimate partners. Various bodies of literature are reviewed to establish the fact that separation heightens the risk of violence. The conceptual contributions of social learning and power and control theories are presented as they pertain to intimate violence against women. An expanded version of the power-and-control model is used to underscore the violence proneness of separations, especially when women initiate separations. To illustrate the expanded model, numerous Canadian examples are provided, drawn from interviews with divorced women, survivors of intimate violence, and news media reports. Finally, different strategies to break the cycle of violence are summarized.

  3. Virgin microplastics are not causing imminent harm to fish after dietary exposure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jovanović, Boris; Gökdağ, Kerem; Güven, Olgaç

    2018-01-01

    Among aquatic organisms, fish are particularly susceptible to ingesting microplastic particles due to their attractive coloration, buoyancy, and resemblance to food. However, in previous experimental setups, fish were usually exposed to unrealistically high concentrations of microplastics......, or the microplastics were deliberately contaminated with persistent organic chemicals; also, in many experiments, the fish were exposed only during the larval stages. The present study investigated the effects of virgin microplastics in gilt-head seabream (Sparus aurata) after 45 days’ exposure at 0.1 g kg−1...... of virgin microplastics does not cause imminent harm to the adult gilt-head seabream during 45 days of exposure and an additional 30 days of depuration. The retention of virgin microplastics in the gastrointestinal tract was fairly low, indicating effective elimination of microplastics from the body...

  4. Deriving a model for influenza epidemics from historical data.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ray, Jaideep; Lefantzi, Sophia

    2011-09-01

    In this report we describe how we create a model for influenza epidemics from historical data collected from both civilian and military societies. We derive the model when the population of the society is unknown but the size of the epidemic is known. Our interest lies in estimating a time-dependent infection rate to within a multiplicative constant. The model form fitted is chosen for its similarity to published models for HIV and plague, enabling application of Bayesian techniques to discriminate among infectious agents during an emerging epidemic. We have developed models for the progression of influenza in human populations. The model is framed as a integral, and predicts the number of people who exhibit symptoms and seek care over a given time-period. The start and end of the time period form the limits of integration. The disease progression model, in turn, contains parameterized models for the incubation period and a time-dependent infection rate. The incubation period model is obtained from literature, and the parameters of the infection rate are fitted from historical data including both military and civilian populations. The calibrated infection rate models display a marked difference in which the 1918 Spanish Influenza pandemic differed from the influenza seasons in the US between 2001-2008 and the progression of H1N1 in Catalunya, Spain. The data for the 1918 pandemic was obtained from military populations, while the rest are country-wide or province-wide data from the twenty-first century. We see that the initial growth of infection in all cases were about the same; however, military populations were able to control the epidemic much faster i.e., the decay of the infection-rate curve is much higher. It is not clear whether this was because of the much higher level of organization present in a military society or the seriousness with which the 1918 pandemic was addressed. Each outbreak to which the influenza model was fitted yields a separate set of

  5. Epidemic as a natural process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koivu-Jolma, Mikko; Annila, Arto

    2018-05-01

    Mathematical epidemiology is a well-recognized discipline to model infectious diseases. It also provides guidance for public health officials to limit outbreaks. Nevertheless, epidemics take societies by surprise every now and then, for example, when the Ebola virus epidemic raged seemingly unrestrained in Western Africa. We provide insight to this capricious character of nature by describing the epidemic as a natural process, i.e., a phenomenon governed by thermodynamics. Our account, based on statistical mechanics of open systems, clarifies that it is impossible to predict accurately epidemic courses because everything depends on everything else. Nonetheless, the thermodynamic theory yields a comprehensive and analytical view of the epidemic. The tenet subsumes various processes in a scale-free manner from the molecular to the societal levels. The holistic view accentuates overarching procedures in arresting and eradicating epidemics. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Epidemics spread in heterogeneous populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capała, Karol; Dybiec, Bartłomiej

    2017-05-01

    Individuals building populations are subject to variability. This variability affects progress of epidemic outbreaks, because individuals tend to be more or less resistant. Individuals also differ with respect to their recovery rate. Here, properties of the SIR model in inhomogeneous populations are studied. It is shown that a small change in model's parameters, e.g. recovery or infection rate, can substantially change properties of final states which is especially well-visible in distributions of the epidemic size. In addition to the epidemic size and radii distributions, the paper explores first passage time properties of epidemic outbreaks.

  7. Military Classics

    Science.gov (United States)

    1988-01-01

    the relation of religion and politics to seventeenth-century English military history. Frederick II, King of Prussia. Frederick the Great on the Art...Beginning with the reign of King Henry VIII, Barnett’s work explores the history of the British Army as an institution and fighting force. The volume...native clans led by Shaka , to its fall under the guns of the British Army by 1878. The Zulus produced a formidable military force, and this excellent

  8. Epidemic modeling in complex realities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colizza, Vittoria; Barthélemy, Marc; Barrat, Alain; Vespignani, Alessandro

    2007-04-01

    In our global world, the increasing complexity of social relations and transport infrastructures are key factors in the spread of epidemics. In recent years, the increasing availability of computer power has enabled both to obtain reliable data allowing one to quantify the complexity of the networks on which epidemics may propagate and to envision computational tools able to tackle the analysis of such propagation phenomena. These advances have put in evidence the limits of homogeneous assumptions and simple spatial diffusion approaches, and stimulated the inclusion of complex features and heterogeneities relevant in the description of epidemic diffusion. In this paper, we review recent progresses that integrate complex systems and networks analysis with epidemic modelling and focus on the impact of the various complex features of real systems on the dynamics of epidemic spreading.

  9. Epidemics after Natural Disasters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gayer, Michelle; Connolly, Maire A.

    2007-01-01

    The relationship between natural disasters and communicable diseases is frequently misconstrued. The risk for outbreaks is often presumed to be very high in the chaos that follows natural disasters, a fear likely derived from a perceived association between dead bodies and epidemics. However, the risk factors for outbreaks after disasters are associated primarily with population displacement. The availability of safe water and sanitation facilities, the degree of crowding, the underlying health status of the population, and the availability of healthcare services all interact within the context of the local disease ecology to influence the risk for communicable diseases and death in the affected population. We outline the risk factors for outbreaks after a disaster, review the communicable diseases likely to be important, and establish priorities to address communicable diseases in disaster settings. PMID:17370508

  10. The epidemic of methylisothiazolinone

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schwensen, Jakob F; Uter, Wolfgang; Bruze, Magnus

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The use of methylisothiazolinone (MI) in cosmetic products has caused an unprecedented epidemic of MI contact allergy. Current data concerning exposures at a European level are required. OBJECTIVES: To describe demographics and MI exposures for European patients with MI contact allergy....... METHODS: Eleven European dermatology departments from eight European countries prospectively collected data between 1 May and 31 October 2015 among consecutive patients who had positive patch test reactions to MI (2000 ppm aq.). RESULTS: A total of 6.0% (205/3434; range 2.6-13.0%) of patients had positive...... patch test reactions to MI. Dermatitis most frequently affected the hands (43.4%), face (32.7%), arms (14.6%), and eyelids (11.7%); 12.7% had widespread dermatitis. For 72.7% (149/205), MI contact allergy was currently relevant mainly because of exposure to cosmetic products (83.2%; 124...

  11. Recurrent dynamics in an epidemic model due to stimulated bifurcation crossovers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Juanico, Drandreb Earl

    2015-01-01

    Epidemics are known to persist in the form of recurrence cycles. Despite intervention efforts through vaccination and targeted social distancing, peaks of activity for infectious diseases like influenza reappear over time. Analysis of a stochastic model is here undertaken to explore a proposed cycle-generating mechanism – the bifurcation crossover. Time series from simulations of the model exhibit oscillations similar to the temporal signature of influenza activity. Power-spectral density indicates a resonant frequency, which corresponds to the annual seasonality of influenza in temperate zones. The study finds that intervention actions influence the extinguishability of epidemic activity. Asymptotic solution to a backward Kolmogorov equation corresponds to a mean extinction time that is a function of both intervention efficacy and population size. Intervention efficacy must be greater than a certain threshold to increase the chances of extinguishing the epidemic. Agreement of the model with several phenomenological features of epidemic cycles lends to it a tractability that may serve as early warning of imminent outbreaks

  12. Recurrent dynamics in an epidemic model due to stimulated bifurcation crossovers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Juanico, Drandreb Earl [Department of Mathematics, Ateneo de Manila University, Loyola Heights, Quezon City, Philippines 1108 (Philippines); National Institute of Physics, University of the Philippines, Diliman, Quezon City, Philippines 1101 (Philippines)

    2015-05-15

    Epidemics are known to persist in the form of recurrence cycles. Despite intervention efforts through vaccination and targeted social distancing, peaks of activity for infectious diseases like influenza reappear over time. Analysis of a stochastic model is here undertaken to explore a proposed cycle-generating mechanism – the bifurcation crossover. Time series from simulations of the model exhibit oscillations similar to the temporal signature of influenza activity. Power-spectral density indicates a resonant frequency, which corresponds to the annual seasonality of influenza in temperate zones. The study finds that intervention actions influence the extinguishability of epidemic activity. Asymptotic solution to a backward Kolmogorov equation corresponds to a mean extinction time that is a function of both intervention efficacy and population size. Intervention efficacy must be greater than a certain threshold to increase the chances of extinguishing the epidemic. Agreement of the model with several phenomenological features of epidemic cycles lends to it a tractability that may serve as early warning of imminent outbreaks.

  13. Measles epidemics of variable lethality in the early 20th century.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shanks, G Dennis; Hu, Zheng; Waller, Michael; Lee, Seung-eun; Terfa, Daniel; Howard, Alan; van Heyningen, Elizabeth; Brundage, John F

    2014-02-15

    Until the mid-20th century, mortality rates were often very high during measles epidemics, particularly among previously isolated populations (e.g., islanders), refugees/internees who were forcibly crowded into camps, and military recruits. Searching for insights regarding measles mortality rates, we reviewed historical records of measles epidemics on the Polynesian island of Rotuma (in 1911), in Boer War concentration camps (in 1900-1902), and in US Army mobilization camps during the First World War (in 1917-1918). Records classified measles deaths by date and clinical causes; by demographic characteristics, family relationships (for Rotuma islanders and Boer camp internees), and prior residences; and by camp (for Boer internees and US Army recruits). During the Rotuman and Boer War epidemics, measles-related mortality rates were high (up to 40%); however, mortality rates differed more than 10-fold across camps/districts, even though conditions were similar. During measles epidemics, most deaths among camp internees/military recruits were due to secondary bacterial pneumonias; in contrast, most deaths among Rotuman islanders were due to gastrointestinal complications. The clinical expressions, courses, and outcomes of measles during first-contact epidemics differ from those during camp epidemics. The degree of isolation from respiratory pathogens other than measles may significantly determine measles-related mortality risk.

  14. Interrupting violence: how the CeaseFire Program prevents imminent gun violence through conflict mediation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitehill, Jennifer M; Webster, Daniel W; Frattaroli, Shannon; Parker, Elizabeth M

    2014-02-01

    Cities are increasingly adopting CeaseFire, an evidence-based public health program that uses specialized outreach workers, called violence interrupters (VIs), to mediate potentially violent conflicts before they lead to a shooting. Prior research has linked conflict mediation with program-related reductions in homicides, but the specific conflict mediation practices used by effective programs to prevent imminent gun violence have not been identified. We conducted case studies of CeaseFire programs in two inner cities using qualitative data from focus groups with 24 VIs and interviews with eight program managers. Study sites were purposively sampled to represent programs with more than 1 year of implementation and evidence of program effectiveness. Staff with more than 6 months of job experience were recruited for participation. Successful mediation efforts were built on trust and respect between VIs and the community, especially high-risk individuals. In conflict mediation, immediate priorities included separating the potential shooter from the intended victim and from peers who may encourage violence, followed by persuading the parties to resolve the conflict peacefully. Tactics for brokering peace included arranging the return of stolen property and emphasizing negative consequences of violence such as jail, death, or increased police attention. Utilizing these approaches, VIs are capable of preventing gun violence and interrupting cycles of retaliation.

  15. Four Examples of Short-Term and Imminent Prediction of Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    zeng, zuoxun; Liu, Genshen; Wu, Dabin; Sibgatulin, Victor

    2014-05-01

    We show here 4 examples of short-term and imminent prediction of earthquakes in China last year. They are Nima Earthquake(Ms5.2), Minxian Earthquake(Ms6.6), Nantou Earthquake (Ms6.7) and Dujiangyan Earthquake (Ms4.1) Imminent Prediction of Nima Earthquake(Ms5.2) Based on the comprehensive analysis of the prediction of Victor Sibgatulin using natural electromagnetic pulse anomalies and the prediction of Song Song and Song Kefu using observation of a precursory halo, and an observation for the locations of a degasification of the earth in the Naqu, Tibet by Zeng Zuoxun himself, the first author made a prediction for an earthquake around Ms 6 in 10 days in the area of the degasification point (31.5N, 89.0 E) at 0:54 of May 8th, 2013. He supplied another degasification point (31N, 86E) for the epicenter prediction at 8:34 of the same day. At 18:54:30 of May 15th, 2013, an earthquake of Ms5.2 occurred in the Nima County, Naqu, China. Imminent Prediction of Minxian Earthquake (Ms6.6) At 7:45 of July 22nd, 2013, an earthquake occurred at the border between Minxian and Zhangxian of Dingxi City (34.5N, 104.2E), Gansu province with magnitude of Ms6.6. We review the imminent prediction process and basis for the earthquake using the fingerprint method. 9 channels or 15 channels anomalous components - time curves can be outputted from the SW monitor for earthquake precursors. These components include geomagnetism, geoelectricity, crust stresses, resonance, crust inclination. When we compress the time axis, the outputted curves become different geometric images. The precursor images are different for earthquake in different regions. The alike or similar images correspond to earthquakes in a certain region. According to the 7-year observation of the precursor images and their corresponding earthquake, we usually get the fingerprint 6 days before the corresponding earthquakes. The magnitude prediction needs the comparison between the amplitudes of the fingerpringts from the same

  16. The process of death imminence awareness by family members of patients in adult critical care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baumhover, Nancy C

    2015-01-01

    A focus on cost-effective quality end-of-life care remains a high priority in adult critical care given an aging population, high prevalence of death, and aggressive technologies used to extend or sustain life in this setting. A Glaserian grounded theory design was used to conduct this retrospective study to yield a substantive middle-range theory. The data source was semistructured interviews with 14 family members of decedents who died 6 to 60 months prior to the study. The purpose of this study was to generate a theory on how family members of patients in adult critical care come to realize that their loved one is dying. The Process of Death Imminence Awareness by Family Members of Patients in Adult Critical Care middle-range theory contained 6 phases: (1) patient's near-death awareness, (2) dying right in front of me, (3) turning points in the patient's condition, (4) no longer the person I once knew, (5) doing right by them, and (6) time to let go. Patient's near-death awareness preceded all other phases, if communicated by the decedent with their family. Then, family members iteratively moved through all the other key phases in the process until a time to let go became evident. This substantive middle-range theory will guide nursing education, practice, and research aimed at providing quality and cost-effective end-of-life care in adult critical care.

  17. The reflection of life functional entailment and imminence in relational biology

    CERN Document Server

    Louie, A H

    2013-01-01

    A. H. Louie’s The Reflection of Life: Functional Entailment and Imminence in Relational Biology is a continuation of the exploratory journey in relational biology which began with his 2009 monograph More Than Life Itself: A Synthetic Continuation in Relational Biology. The theme of his first book was ‘What is life?’; the theme of this sequel is “How do two life forms interact?” Biology is a subject concerned with organization of relations. Relational biology is the approach that advocates ‘function dictates structure”, rather than ‘structure implies function’. It is mathematics decoded into biological realizations. The book demonstrates some of the powers of the approach of relational biology, and illustrates how pertinent problems in biology can be better addressed this way. In the first volume the theory was developed by using partially ordered sets, lattices, simulations, models, Aristotle’s four causes, graphs, categories, simple and complex systems, anticipatory systems, and metabolis...

  18. Military necessity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hayashi, N.

    2017-01-01

    It is often said that international humanitarian law (IHL) “accounts for” military necessity, but its meaning and normative consequences have remained obscure. This thesis develops a theory that offers a coherent explanation of the process through which IHL generates its rules. To

  19. Military radiography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1993-01-01

    Historic military uses of radiography are discussed in this chapter: Battle of Adowa in 1986 was the first. Besides describing the early campaigns in which radiography was used, the author discusses the problems faced: a reliable source of electricity; the problems of extreme heat; moving and breakage of equipment. Numerous historical photographs are included. 9 refs

  20. Epidemic cholera spreads like wildfire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roy, Manojit; Zinck, Richard D.; Bouma, Menno J.; Pascual, Mercedes

    2014-01-01

    Cholera is on the rise globally, especially epidemic cholera which is characterized by intermittent and unpredictable outbreaks that punctuate periods of regional disease fade-out. These epidemic dynamics remain however poorly understood. Here we examine records for epidemic cholera over both contemporary and historical timelines, from Africa (1990-2006) and former British India (1882-1939). We find that the frequency distribution of outbreak size is fat-tailed, scaling approximately as a power-law. This pattern which shows strong parallels with wildfires is incompatible with existing cholera models developed for endemic regions, as it implies a fundamental role for stochastic transmission and local depletion of susceptible hosts. Application of a recently developed forest-fire model indicates that epidemic cholera dynamics are located above a critical phase transition and propagate in similar ways to aggressive wildfires. These findings have implications for the effectiveness of control measures and the mechanisms that ultimately limit the size of outbreaks.

  1. [Epidemic parotiditis, a reportable disease].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boverhoff, J C; Baart, J A

    2013-01-01

    Three consecutive patients with an acute swelling of one of the cheeks, were diagnosed with epidemic parotiditis. The first phase of the diagnostic procedure for an acute cheek swelling is to eliminate the possibility of odontogenic causes. When odontogenic problems have been excluded, non-dentition-related causes may be considered. An acute, progressive swelling in the preauricular area can often be attributed to an inflammation of the parotid gland, but epidemic parotiditis should also be considered. Epidemic parotiditis, or mumps, is caused by the mumps virus. Contamination occurs aerogenically. In the Netherlands, mumps vaccine is an ingredient of the governmental combined mump-measles-rubella inoculation programme. However, in recent years several small-scale parotiditis epidemics have broken out, predominantly among young, inoculated adults. Oropharyngeal mucus and blood samples are needed to diagnose the disease. Each case of the disease should be reported to the community healthcare service.

  2. [The imminent peril in the law of July the fifth 2011, two years later: the impact on health?].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mondoloni, A; Buard, M; Nargeot, J; Vacheron, M-N

    2014-12-01

    In 1938, the French government decided to enact a first legislation to enforce admission of the mentally ill to hospitals. Later in 1990, the law took into consideration the evolution of practices with an increase of free admissions and the right to maintain the mentally ill in cities. Three types of psychiatric hospitalization were defined: free, on third party request and for involuntary confinement. A review had theoretically to be conducted every 5 years. In practice this was not the case, probably due to the balance between individual freedom, patient care and public safety always hard to find. However, considering the imperative European harmonization and the fact the Constitutional Council declared a double unconstitutionality of the law, the Act of July 5th was enacted in a hurry during the summer 2011. The Act defines the "rights and the protection of people subject to psychiatric care and methods of coverage". In this document, we will briefly review the context of this law. We will also explore the clinical implications of the very innovative measure: the "péril imminent". We will use the admissions at the Sainte-Anne hospital in Paris in 2010 to 2012. Three major key points were introduced in the law: a judge controls an agreeable release after 15 days and 6 months of continuous hospitalization. The law let the new possibility to provide ambulatory cares under constraints, and these to make an involuntary confinement without a third party request, using the "imminent peril". This law implies the involvement of the judge and the lawyer. This one has to defend a client who needs care, he controls the formal validity of decisions concerning the patient. To provide treatment without consent in "imminent peril" to someone, conditions are requested: these mental disorders make his consent impossible and his mental state requires immediate care with immediate care of constant medical monitoring justifying a full hospitalization or regular medical monitoring

  3. Canada's imminent decision on nuclear fuel management: decision making at the intersection of science, politics, and society

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Isaacs, T. [Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California (United States)

    2005-07-01

    This paper outlines the science, politics and the decision making process in implementing a nuclear fuel management program. It discusses the issues in the light of Canada's imminent decision on nuclear fuel management. The paper discusses the technical as well as the institutional challenge in nuclear waste management. It discusses some of the key elements of the Canadian approach and concludes with some key recommendation in the way forward.

  4. The worldwide obesity epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    James, P T; Leach, R; Kalamara, E; Shayeghi, M

    2001-11-01

    The recent World Health Organization (WHO) agreement on the standardized classification of overweight and obese, based on body mass index (BMI), allows a comparable analysis of prevalence rates worldwide for the first time. In Asia, however, there is a demand for a more limited range for normal BMIs (i.e., 18.5 to 22.9 kg/m(2) rather than 18.5 to 24.9 kg/m(2)) because of the high prevalence of comorbidities, particularly diabetes and hypertension. In children, the International Obesity Task-Force age-, sex-, and BMI-specific cutoff points are increasingly being used. We are currently evaluating BMI data globally as part of a new millennium analysis of the Global Burden of Disease. WHO is analyzing data in terms of 20 or more principal risk factors contributing to the primary causes of disability and lost lives in the 191 countries within the WHO. The prevalence rates for overweight and obese people are different in each region, with the Middle East, Central and Eastern Europe, and North America having higher prevalence rates. In most countries, women show a greater BMI distribution with higher obesity rates than do men. Obesity is usually now associated with poverty, even in developing countries. Relatively new data suggest that abdominal obesity in adults, with its associated enhanced morbidity, occurs particularly in those who had lower birth weights and early childhood stunting. Waist measurements in nationally representative studies are scarce but will now be needed to estimate the full impact of the worldwide obesity epidemic.

  5. Helping Callers to the National Suicide Prevention Lifeline Who Are at Imminent Risk of Suicide: Evaluation of Caller Risk Profiles and Interventions Implemented.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gould, Madelyn S; Lake, Alison M; Munfakh, Jimmie Lou; Galfalvy, Hanga; Kleinman, Marjorie; Williams, Caitlin; Glass, Andrew; McKeon, Richard

    2016-04-01

    Crisis lines are settings where identifying individuals at imminent risk of suicidal behavior and intervening to keep them safe are critical activities. We examined clinical characteristics of crisis callers assessed by telephone crisis helpers as being at imminent risk of suicide, and the interventions implemented with these callers. Data were derived from 491 call reports completed by 132 helpers at eight crisis centers in the National Suicide Prevention Lifeline network. Helpers actively engaged the callers in collaborating to keep themselves safe on 76.4% of calls and sent emergency services without the callers' collaboration on 24.6% of calls. Four different profiles of imminent risk calls emerged. Caller profiles and some helper characteristics were associated with intervention type. Our findings provide a first step toward an empirical formulation of imminent risk warning signs and recommended interventions. © 2015 The American Association of Suicidology.

  6. Epidemic processes in complex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pastor-Satorras, Romualdo; Castellano, Claudio; Van Mieghem, Piet; Vespignani, Alessandro

    2015-07-01

    In recent years the research community has accumulated overwhelming evidence for the emergence of complex and heterogeneous connectivity patterns in a wide range of biological and sociotechnical systems. The complex properties of real-world networks have a profound impact on the behavior of equilibrium and nonequilibrium phenomena occurring in various systems, and the study of epidemic spreading is central to our understanding of the unfolding of dynamical processes in complex networks. The theoretical analysis of epidemic spreading in heterogeneous networks requires the development of novel analytical frameworks, and it has produced results of conceptual and practical relevance. A coherent and comprehensive review of the vast research activity concerning epidemic processes is presented, detailing the successful theoretical approaches as well as making their limits and assumptions clear. Physicists, mathematicians, epidemiologists, computer, and social scientists share a common interest in studying epidemic spreading and rely on similar models for the description of the diffusion of pathogens, knowledge, and innovation. For this reason, while focusing on the main results and the paradigmatic models in infectious disease modeling, the major results concerning generalized social contagion processes are also presented. Finally, the research activity at the forefront in the study of epidemic spreading in coevolving, coupled, and time-varying networks is reported.

  7. Military and Political Studies

    OpenAIRE

    Alexey I. Podberyozkin

    2014-01-01

    Military-political issues is an important area of research work at MGIMO. The difference in this direction from the classical international specialization is that it is at the intersection of several disciplines: military science, military-technical and military-industrial as well as International Relations. A specialist in military and political issues should not only be an expert in the field of international relations and diplomacy, but also have a deep knowledge of military-technical issu...

  8. Environmental Factors Influencing Epidemic Cholera

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jutla, Antarpreet; Whitcombe, Elizabeth; Hasan, Nur; Haley, Bradd; Akanda, Ali; Huq, Anwar; Alam, Munir; Sack, R. Bradley; Colwell, Rita

    2013-01-01

    Cholera outbreak following the earthquake of 2010 in Haiti has reaffirmed that the disease is a major public health threat. Vibrio cholerae is autochthonous to aquatic environment, hence, it cannot be eradicated but hydroclimatology-based prediction and prevention is an achievable goal. Using data from the 1800s, we describe uniqueness in seasonality and mechanism of occurrence of cholera in the epidemic regions of Asia and Latin America. Epidemic regions are located near regional rivers and are characterized by sporadic outbreaks, which are likely to be initiated during episodes of prevailing warm air temperature with low river flows, creating favorable environmental conditions for growth of cholera bacteria. Heavy rainfall, through inundation or breakdown of sanitary infrastructure, accelerates interaction between contaminated water and human activities, resulting in an epidemic. This causal mechanism is markedly different from endemic cholera where tidal intrusion of seawater carrying bacteria from estuary to inland regions, results in outbreaks. PMID:23897993

  9. Networked SIS Epidemics With Awareness

    KAUST Repository

    Paarporn, Keith

    2017-07-20

    We study a susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic process over a static contact network where the nodes have partial information about the epidemic state. They react by limiting their interactions with their neighbors when they believe the epidemic is currently prevalent. A node\\'s awareness is weighted by the fraction of infected neighbors in their social network, and a global broadcast of the fraction of infected nodes in the entire network. The dynamics of the benchmark (no awareness) and awareness models are described by discrete-time Markov chains, from which mean-field approximations (MFAs) are derived. The states of the MFA are interpreted as the nodes\\' probabilities of being infected. We show a sufficient condition for the existence of a

  10. Understanding Ebola: the 2014 epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaner, Jolie; Schaack, Sarah

    2016-09-13

    Near the end of 2013, an outbreak of Zaire ebolavirus (EBOV) began in Guinea, subsequently spreading to neighboring Liberia and Sierra Leone. As this epidemic grew, important public health questions emerged about how and why this outbreak was so different from previous episodes. This review provides a synthetic synopsis of the 2014-15 outbreak, with the aim of understanding its unprecedented spread. We present a summary of the history of previous epidemics, describe the structure and genetics of the ebolavirus, and review our current understanding of viral vectors and the latest treatment practices. We conclude with an analysis of the public health challenges epidemic responders faced and some of the lessons that could be applied to future outbreaks of Ebola or other viruses.

  11. Epidemic spreading on interconnected networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saumell-Mendiola, Anna; Serrano, M Ángeles; Boguñá, Marián

    2012-08-01

    Many real networks are not isolated from each other but form networks of networks, often interrelated in nontrivial ways. Here, we analyze an epidemic spreading process taking place on top of two interconnected complex networks. We develop a heterogeneous mean-field approach that allows us to calculate the conditions for the emergence of an endemic state. Interestingly, a global endemic state may arise in the coupled system even though the epidemics is not able to propagate on each network separately and even when the number of coupling connections is small. Our analytic results are successfully confronted against large-scale numerical simulations.

  12. [Epidemics and diseases during the Independence period in Mexico].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viesca-Treviño, Carlos

    2010-01-01

    The epidemics and endemic diseases in Mexico were not a problem before the Independence period. Hunger was less than in the past. The 1806 Influenza epidemics had been forgotten. Measles was considered a benign illness. In 1810, there was an increase in the number of cases of black vomit in Veracruz. Sixty percent of 541 hospitalized patients die of the disease. In 1812, an outbreak of yellow fever spread from Veracruz to Jalapa accompanying the movement of troops and killing over 300 soldiers of the Castilla's Battalion. The appearance of petechial fever, maybe typhus marketed in 1813 the onset of the most important epidemics. The preceding was the indirect effect of war: diseases of prisons and military quarters which became overwhelming in times where the movements of troops and of important groups of populations along with crowing, loss homes, hunger and bad hygiene habits. There was also Influenza or "pestilent cold." Measures of detection and quarantine were taken. "Naranjate" mixed with tartaric cremor was used against fever. Fumigation with nitric acid and burners, where they incinerated gun powder were among the health protection policies. It is noteworthy the advance and relief provided by the introduction of smallpox vaccine, the only preventive mean useful against smallpox which was a breakthrough in public health.

  13. Prevention, development, and control of psychophysical false reactions in cases of imminent or existing catastrophes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brickenstein, R.

    1981-01-01

    If a random group of people or a solid community feel threatened in their economical, ideologic-religious, or physical existences, individual reactions which occur frequently, such as pathologically increased fear, dread can become new common symptoms, the so-called summation phenomenous. Especially general uneasiness, emotional conditions indicating crises and tendency to panic belong to these symptoms. In a mass of people, all preconditions of the development of a panic are existing. This can be acute in the abortive form, but also chronic. Measures of preventing or controlling a panic can be successful only if they take into consideration the genesis and the art of the different sorts of panic. Therefore, it is urgently necessary for any organisatory or political or military leader to know these in order to be able to prevent a catastrophe. (orig.) [de

  14. The narcissism epidemic is dead : Long live the narcissism epidemic

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wetzel, Eunike; Brown, Anna; Hill, Patrick; Chung, J.M.H.; Robins, R.W.; Roberts, B.W.

    2017-01-01

    Are recent cohorts of college students more narcissistic than their predecessors? To address debates about the so-called “narcissism epidemic,” we used data from three cohorts of students (N1990s = 1,166; N2000s = 33,647; N2010s = 25,412) to test whether narcissism levels (overall and specific

  15. Biosurveillance Using Clinical Diagnoses and Social Media Indicators in Military Populations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Corley, Courtney D. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Volkova, Svitlana [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Rounds, Jeremiah [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Charles-Smith, Lauren E. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Harrison, Joshua J. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Mendoza, Joshua A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Han, Keith S. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2017-02-23

    U.S. military influenza surveillance uses electronic reporting of clinical diagnoses to monitor health of military personnel and detect naturally occurring and bioterrorism-related epidemics. While accurate, these systems lack in timeliness. More recently, researchers have used novel data sources to detect influenza in real time and capture nontraditional populations. With data-mining techniques, military social media users are identified and influenza-related discourse is integrated along with medical data into a comprehensive disease model. By leveraging heterogeneous data streams and developing dashboard biosurveillance analytics, the researchers hope to increase the speed at which outbreaks are detected and provide accurate disease forecasting among military personnel.

  16. Epidemic threshold in directed networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Cong; Wang, Huijuan; Van Mieghem, Piet

    2013-12-01

    Epidemics have so far been mostly studied in undirected networks. However, many real-world networks, such as the online social network Twitter and the world wide web, on which information, emotion, or malware spreads, are directed networks, composed of both unidirectional links and bidirectional links. We define the directionality ξ as the percentage of unidirectional links. The epidemic threshold τc for the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) epidemic is lower bounded by 1/λ1 in directed networks, where λ1, also called the spectral radius, is the largest eigenvalue of the adjacency matrix. In this work, we propose two algorithms to generate directed networks with a given directionality ξ. The effect of ξ on the spectral radius λ1, principal eigenvector x1, spectral gap (λ1-λ2), and algebraic connectivity μN-1 is studied. Important findings are that the spectral radius λ1 decreases with the directionality ξ, whereas the spectral gap and the algebraic connectivity increase with the directionality ξ. The extent of the decrease of the spectral radius depends on both the degree distribution and the degree-degree correlation ρD. Hence, in directed networks, the epidemic threshold is larger and a random walk converges to its steady state faster than that in undirected networks with the same degree distribution.

  17. Epidemic Synchronization in Robotic Swarms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schiøler, Henrik; Nielsen, Jens Frederik Dalsgaard; Ngo, Trung Dung

    2009-01-01

    Clock synchronization in swarms of networked mobile robots is studied in a probabilistic, epidemic framework. In this setting communication and synchonization is considered to be a randomized process, taking place at unplanned instants of geographical rendezvous between robots. In combination...... as an infinite-dimensional optimal controlproblem. Illustrative numerical examples are given and commented....

  18. Stochastic Processes in Epidemic Theory

    CERN Document Server

    Lefèvre, Claude; Picard, Philippe

    1990-01-01

    This collection of papers gives a representative cross-selectional view of recent developments in the field. After a survey paper by C. Lefèvre, 17 other research papers look at stochastic modeling of epidemics, both from a theoretical and a statistical point of view. Some look more specifically at a particular disease such as AIDS, malaria, schistosomiasis and diabetes.

  19. The First American Cocaine Epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Courtwright, David T.

    1991-01-01

    Discusses the wave of cocaine abuse that followed the drug's recommendation by the late nineteenth-century medical community as a cure all. Details drug addiction among ethnic and social groups at the turn of the century. Warns that drug epidemics have important social and legal consequences. Suggests legal pressure may alter the form of drug…

  20. Epidemic Synchronization in Robotic Swarms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schiøler, Henrik; Nielsen, Jens Frederik Dalsgaard; Ngo, Trung Dung

    2009-01-01

    Clock synchronization in swarms of networked mobile robots is studied in a probabilistic, epidemic framework. In this setting communication and synchonization is considered to be a randomized process, taking place at unplanned instants of geographical rendezvous between robots. In combination wit...

  1. Epidemics in adaptive networks with community structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaw, Leah; Tunc, Ilker

    2010-03-01

    Models for epidemic spread on static social networks do not account for changes in individuals' social interactions. Recent studies of adaptive networks have modeled avoidance behavior, as non-infected individuals try to avoid contact with infectives. Such models have not generally included realistic social structure. Here we study epidemic spread on an adaptive network with community structure. We model the effect of heterogeneous communities on infection levels and epidemic extinction. We also show how an epidemic can alter the community structure.

  2. Music therapy with imminently dying hospice patients and their families: facilitating release near the time of death.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krout, Robert E

    2003-01-01

    Hospice care seeks to address the diverse needs of terminally ill patients in a number of physical, psychosocial, and spiritual areas. Family members of the patient often are included in the care and services provided by the hospice team, and hospice clinicians face a special challenge when working with families of patients who are imminently dying. When loved ones are anticipating the patient's impending death, they may find it difficult to express feelings, thoughts, and last wishes. Music therapy is a service modality that can help to facilitate such communication between the family and the patient who is actively dying, while also providing a comforting presence. Music therapy as a way to ease communication and sharing between dying patients and their loved ones is discussed in this article. The ways in which music therapy can facilitate a means of release for both patients and family members in an acute care unit of a large US hospice organization are specifically described. Case descriptions illustrate how music therapy functioned to allow five patients and their families to both come together and let go near the time of death. Elements to consider when providing such services to imminently dying patients and their families are discussed.

  3. Epidemics spreading in interconnected complex networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Y.; Xiao, G.

    2012-01-01

    We study epidemic spreading in two interconnected complex networks. It is found that in our model the epidemic threshold of the interconnected network is always lower than that in any of the two component networks. Detailed theoretical analysis is proposed which allows quick and accurate calculations of epidemic threshold and average outbreak/epidemic size. Theoretical analysis and simulation results show that, generally speaking, the epidemic size is not significantly affected by the inter-network correlation. In interdependent networks which can be viewed as a special case of interconnected networks, however, impacts of inter-network correlation on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size are more significant. -- Highlights: ► We study epidemic spreading in two interconnected complex networks. ► The epidemic threshold is lower than that in any of the two networks. And Interconnection correlation has impacts on threshold and average outbreak size. ► Detailed theoretical analysis is proposed which allows quick and accurate calculations of epidemic threshold and average outbreak/epidemic size. ► We demonstrated and proved that Interconnection correlation does not affect epidemic size significantly. ► In interdependent networks, impacts of inter-network correlation on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size are more significant.

  4. Epidemics spreading in interconnected complex networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Y. [School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore 639798 (Singapore); Institute of High Performance Computing, Agency for Science, Technology and Research (A-STAR), Singapore 138632 (Singapore); Xiao, G., E-mail: egxxiao@ntu.edu.sg [School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore 639798 (Singapore)

    2012-09-03

    We study epidemic spreading in two interconnected complex networks. It is found that in our model the epidemic threshold of the interconnected network is always lower than that in any of the two component networks. Detailed theoretical analysis is proposed which allows quick and accurate calculations of epidemic threshold and average outbreak/epidemic size. Theoretical analysis and simulation results show that, generally speaking, the epidemic size is not significantly affected by the inter-network correlation. In interdependent networks which can be viewed as a special case of interconnected networks, however, impacts of inter-network correlation on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size are more significant. -- Highlights: ► We study epidemic spreading in two interconnected complex networks. ► The epidemic threshold is lower than that in any of the two networks. And Interconnection correlation has impacts on threshold and average outbreak size. ► Detailed theoretical analysis is proposed which allows quick and accurate calculations of epidemic threshold and average outbreak/epidemic size. ► We demonstrated and proved that Interconnection correlation does not affect epidemic size significantly. ► In interdependent networks, impacts of inter-network correlation on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size are more significant.

  5. Rationale for an HIV / AIDS prevention and mitigation strategy for Africa: combatting the multisectoral impact of the epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyerly, W H

    1996-01-01

    Unlike most infectious diseases in Africa, HIV/AIDS affects the urban elite as well as the rural poor, and generally during their most economically productive years. An increase in deaths among young adults of the magnitude predicted is likely to have substantial adverse effects on economic, political, and military/security stability throughout Africa. AIDS is causing increased stress on fragile African economic infrastructures as labor productivity declines, particularly in agricultural, labor-dependent economies. AIDS is causing obstacles to trade, foreign investment and tourism. Health systems and social coping mechanisms already are overburdened. High rates of HIV infection among police and military personnel threaten internal security. Furthermore, the demobilization of military forces in Africa may exacerbate the epidemic when HIV-infected soldiers return home and spread the virus. This presentation will illustrate why African AIDS Programs must be expanded to mitigate the multisectoral impact of the epidemic while preserving its spread.

  6. Multiple routes transmitted epidemics on multiplex networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhao, Dawei; Li, Lixiang; Peng, Haipeng; Luo, Qun; Yang, Yixian

    2014-01-01

    This letter investigates the multiple routes transmitted epidemic process on multiplex networks. We propose detailed theoretical analysis that allows us to accurately calculate the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. It is found that the epidemic can spread across the multiplex network even if all the network layers are well below their respective epidemic thresholds. Strong positive degree–degree correlation of nodes in multiplex network could lead to a much lower epidemic threshold and a relatively smaller outbreak size. However, the average similarity of neighbors from different layers of nodes has no obvious effect on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. -- Highlights: •We studies multiple routes transmitted epidemic process on multiplex networks. •SIR model and bond percolation theory are used to analyze the epidemic processes. •We derive equations to accurately calculate the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. •ASN has no effect on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. •Strong positive DDC leads to a lower epidemic threshold and a smaller outbreak size.

  7. Multiple routes transmitted epidemics on multiplex networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhao, Dawei [Information Security Center, State Key Laboratory of Networking and Switching Technology, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, P.O. Box 145, Beijing 100876 (China); National Engineering Laboratory for Disaster Backup and Recovery, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing 100876 (China); Shandong Provincial Key Laboratory of Computer Network, Shandong Computer Science Center, Jinan 250014 (China); Li, Lixiang [Information Security Center, State Key Laboratory of Networking and Switching Technology, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, P.O. Box 145, Beijing 100876 (China); National Engineering Laboratory for Disaster Backup and Recovery, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing 100876 (China); Peng, Haipeng, E-mail: penghaipeng@bupt.edu.cn [Information Security Center, State Key Laboratory of Networking and Switching Technology, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, P.O. Box 145, Beijing 100876 (China); National Engineering Laboratory for Disaster Backup and Recovery, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing 100876 (China); Luo, Qun; Yang, Yixian [Information Security Center, State Key Laboratory of Networking and Switching Technology, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, P.O. Box 145, Beijing 100876 (China); National Engineering Laboratory for Disaster Backup and Recovery, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing 100876 (China)

    2014-02-01

    This letter investigates the multiple routes transmitted epidemic process on multiplex networks. We propose detailed theoretical analysis that allows us to accurately calculate the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. It is found that the epidemic can spread across the multiplex network even if all the network layers are well below their respective epidemic thresholds. Strong positive degree–degree correlation of nodes in multiplex network could lead to a much lower epidemic threshold and a relatively smaller outbreak size. However, the average similarity of neighbors from different layers of nodes has no obvious effect on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. -- Highlights: •We studies multiple routes transmitted epidemic process on multiplex networks. •SIR model and bond percolation theory are used to analyze the epidemic processes. •We derive equations to accurately calculate the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. •ASN has no effect on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. •Strong positive DDC leads to a lower epidemic threshold and a smaller outbreak size.

  8. Epidemic processes in complex networks

    OpenAIRE

    Pastor Satorras, Romualdo; Castellano, Claudio; Van Mieghem, Piet; Vespignani, Alessandro

    2015-01-01

    In recent years the research community has accumulated overwhelming evidence for the emergence of complex and heterogeneous connectivity patterns in a wide range of biological and sociotechnical systems. The complex properties of real-world networks have a profound impact on the behavior of equilibrium and nonequilibrium phenomena occurring in various systems, and the study of epidemic spreading is central to our understanding of the unfolding of dynamical processes in complex networks. The t...

  9. China's Military Potential

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Wortzel, Larry

    1998-01-01

    The People's Republic of China (PRC) is seen by many as an economic powerhouse with the world's largest standing military that has the potential to translate economic power into the military sphere...

  10. Military Effectiveness: A Reappraisal

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Bernasconi, Jeffrey J

    2007-01-01

    .... Two divergent theories cover the ground of military effectiveness. One looks at the interaction of social structures, whereas the other looks at the effect organization has on military effectiveness...

  11. Price of military uranium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klimenko, A.V.

    1998-01-01

    The theoretical results about optimum strategy of use of military uranium confirmed by systems approach accounts are received. The numerical value of the system approach price of the highly enriched military uranium also is given

  12. National Military Family Association

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... MilitaryFamily.org © 2017 - National Military Family Association Twitter Facebook Pinterest Instagram Charity Navigator Four Star Charity GuideStar Exchange Better Business Bureau Charity Watch Independent Charity of America nonprofit ...

  13. TRICARE, Military Health System

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Claim Get Proof of TRICARE Coverage View My Military Health Record Less TRICARE Enrollment Freeze Starting Dec. ... Disaster Information Download a Form Go Paperless My Military Health Records Multimedia Center Plan Information Kits Recoupment ...

  14. Contact allergy epidemics and their controls

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thyssen, Jacob Pontoppidan; Johansen, Jeanne Duus; Menné, Torkil

    2007-01-01

    Contact dermatitis can be severe and lead to sick leave as well as significant healthcare expenses. The aim of this review is to present the published knowledge on 6 historical epidemics of contact allergy to apply this knowledge on the prevention and control of future contact allergy epidemics. ...... to prevent contact allergy epidemics. It is essential that dermatologist, scientists, administrators, and consumers organize and structure known methods to accelerate the control of emerging contact allergens....

  15. Young Australians’ Attitudes to the Military and Military Service

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ben Wadham

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available What are young Australians’ understandings of, and attitudes to, the military and military service? This article describes a pilot study of 320 young Australian university students’ attitudes to the military and military service during a time when Australia was engaged in the Afghanistan war. The main purpose of this study was to develop a survey instrument for further work in researching civil–military relations in Australia. Civil–military relations describe the complex set of relationships between the civil and military spheres. The role of the military, the relationship between the state and the military, the division of labor between civilian and military entities, foreign policy, and knowledge of military service are some of the fields that constitute a study of civil–military relations. This article reports on beliefs about, and attitudes to the specificities of military service and responses to the broader field of civil–military relations.

  16. Can rewiring strategy control the epidemic spreading?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Chao; Yin, Qiuju; Liu, Wenyang; Yan, Zhijun; Shi, Tianyu

    2015-11-01

    Relation existed in the social contact network can affect individuals' behaviors greatly. Considering the diversity of relation intimacy among network nodes, an epidemic propagation model is proposed by incorporating the link-breaking threshold, which is normally neglected in the rewiring strategy. The impact of rewiring strategy on the epidemic spreading in the weighted adaptive network is explored. The results show that the rewiring strategy cannot always control the epidemic prevalence, especially when the link-breaking threshold is low. Meanwhile, as well as strong links, weak links also play a significant role on epidemic spreading.

  17. A cost-effectiveness analysis of typhoid fever vaccines in US military personnel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warren, T A; Finder, S F; Brier, K L; Ries, A J; Weber, M P; Miller, M R; Potyk, R P; Reeves, C S; Moran, E L; Tornow, J J

    1996-11-01

    Typhoid fever has been a problem for military personnel throughout history. A cost-effectiveness analysis of typhoid fever vaccines from the perspective of the US military was performed. Currently 3 vaccine preparations are available in the US: an oral live Type 21A whole cell vaccine; a single-dose parenteral, cell subunit vaccine; and a 2-dose parenteral heat-phenol killed, whole cell vaccine. This analysis assumed all vaccinees were US military personnel. Two pharmacoeconomic models were developed, one for personnel who have not yet been deployed, and the other for personnel who are deployed to an area endemic for typhoid fever. Drug acquisition, administration, adverse effect and lost work costs, as well as the costs associated with typhoid fever, were included in this analysis. Unique military issues, typhoid fever attack rates, vaccine efficacy, and compliance with each vaccine's dosage regimen were included in this analysis. A sensitivity analysis was performed to test the robustness of the models. Typhoid fever immunisation is not cost-effective for US military personnel unless they are considered imminently deployable or are deployed. The most cost-effective vaccine for US military personnel is the single-dose, cell subunit parenteral vaccine.

  18. The Diabetes Epidemic in Korea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Junghyun Noh

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Diabetes is one of the foremost public health issues worldwide that can lead to complications in many organ systems, and has become a significant cause of morbidity and mortality in Korea. According to data from the National Health Insurance Service (NHIS, about 2.7 million Koreans (8.0% aged 30 years or older had type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM in 2013. The prevalence of T2DM increased with age and rose from 5.6% in 2006 to 8.0% in 2013. Using data based on The Health Screening Service of the NHIS, 25% of Korean adults were reported to have prediabetes in 2013. The prevalence of an impaired fasting glucose tended to increase over time from 21.5% in 2006 to 25.0% in 2013. Even though nationwide health screening has been regularly conducted as a public service, the proportion of undiagnosed cases of diabetes was still reported to be on the higher side in the latest study. Based on the results of these epidemic studies, further actions will be needed to effectively implement lifestyle changes on a social level and increase measures for the early detection of diabetes to stem the tide of the epidemic.

  19. Cordyceps militaris alleviates non-alcoholic fatty liver disease in ob/ob mice

    OpenAIRE

    Choi, Ha-Neul; Jang, Yang-Hee; Kim, Min-Joo; Seo, Min Jeong; Kang, Byoung Won; Jeong, Yong Kee; Kim, Jung-In

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is becoming an important public health problem as metabolic syndrome and type 2 diabetes have become epidemic. In this study we investigated the protective effect of Cordyceps militaris (C. militaris) against NAFLD in an obese mouse model. MATERIALS/METHODS Four-week-old male ob/ob mice were fed an AIN-93G diet or a diet containing 1% C. militaris water extract for 10 weeks after 1 week of adaptation. Serum glucose, insulin, free...

  20. Epidemic Network Failures in Optical Transport Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ruepp, Sarah Renée; Katsikas, Dimitrios; Fagertun, Anna Manolova

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a failure propagation model for transport networks which are affected by epidemic failures. The network is controlled using the GMPLS protocol suite. The Susceptible Infected Disabled (SID) epidemic model is investigated and new signaling functionality of GMPLS to support...

  1. Household demographic determinants of Ebola epidemic risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adams, Ben

    2016-03-07

    A salient characteristic of Ebola, and some other infectious diseases such as Tuberculosis, is intense transmission among small groups of cohabitants and relatively limited indiscriminate transmission in the wider population. Here we consider a mathematical model for an Ebola epidemic in a population structured into households of equal size. We show that household size, a fundamental demographic unit, is a critical factor that determines the vulnerability of a community to epidemics, and the effort required to control them. Our analysis is based on the household reproduction number, but we also consider the basic reproduction number, intrinsic growth rate and final epidemic size. We show that, when other epidemiological parameters are kept the same, all of these quantifications of epidemic growth and size are increased by larger households and more intense within-household transmission. We go on to model epidemic control by case detection and isolation followed by household quarantine. We show that, if household quarantine is ineffective, the critical probability with which cases must be detected to halt an epidemic increases significantly with each increment in household size and may be a very challenging target for communities composed of large households. Effective quarantine may, however, mitigate the detrimental impact of large household sizes. We conclude that communities composed of large households are fundamentally more vulnerable to epidemics of infectious diseases primarily transmitted by close contact, and any assessment of control strategies for these epidemics should take into account the demographic structure of the population. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Malaria epidemic and drug resistance, Djibouti.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogier, Christophe; Pradines, Bruno; Bogreau, H; Koeck, Jean-Louis; Kamil, Mohamed-Ali; Mercereau-Puijalon, Odile

    2005-02-01

    Analysis of Plasmodium falciparum isolates collected before, during, and after a 1999 malaria epidemic in Djibouti shows that, despite a high prevalence of resistance to chloroquine, the epidemic cannot be attributed to a sudden increase in drug resistance of local parasite populations.

  3. Epidemics in interconnected small-world networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Liu, M.; Li, D.; Qin, P.; Liu, C.; Wang, H.; Wang, F.

    2015-01-01

    Networks can be used to describe the interconnections among individuals, which play an important role in the spread of disease. Although the small-world effect has been found to have a significant impact on epidemics in single networks, the small-world effect on epidemics in interconnected networks

  4. Stemming the obesity epidemic : a tantalizing prospect

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Veerman, J Lennert; Barendregt, Jan J; van Beeck, Ed F; Seidell, Jacob C; Mackenbach, Johan P

    OBJECTIVE: Obesity is a growing problem worldwide, but there are no good methods to assess the future course of the epidemic and the potential influence of interventions. We explore the behavior change needed to stop the obesity epidemic in the U.S. RESEARCH METHODS AND PROCEDURES: We modeled the

  5. Inferring epidemic contact structure from phylogenetic trees.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriel E Leventhal

    Full Text Available Contact structure is believed to have a large impact on epidemic spreading and consequently using networks to model such contact structure continues to gain interest in epidemiology. However, detailed knowledge of the exact contact structure underlying real epidemics is limited. Here we address the question whether the structure of the contact network leaves a detectable genetic fingerprint in the pathogen population. To this end we compare phylogenies generated by disease outbreaks in simulated populations with different types of contact networks. We find that the shape of these phylogenies strongly depends on contact structure. In particular, measures of tree imbalance allow us to quantify to what extent the contact structure underlying an epidemic deviates from a null model contact network and illustrate this in the case of random mixing. Using a phylogeny from the Swiss HIV epidemic, we show that this epidemic has a significantly more unbalanced tree than would be expected from random mixing.

  6. Epidemics in interconnected small-world networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Meng; Li, Daqing; Qin, Pengju; Liu, Chaoran; Wang, Huijuan; Wang, Feilong

    2015-01-01

    Networks can be used to describe the interconnections among individuals, which play an important role in the spread of disease. Although the small-world effect has been found to have a significant impact on epidemics in single networks, the small-world effect on epidemics in interconnected networks has rarely been considered. Here, we study the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model of epidemic spreading in a system comprising two interconnected small-world networks. We find that the epidemic threshold in such networks decreases when the rewiring probability of the component small-world networks increases. When the infection rate is low, the rewiring probability affects the global steady-state infection density, whereas when the infection rate is high, the infection density is insensitive to the rewiring probability. Moreover, epidemics in interconnected small-world networks are found to spread at different velocities that depend on the rewiring probability.

  7. Epidemics in interconnected small-world networks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meng Liu

    Full Text Available Networks can be used to describe the interconnections among individuals, which play an important role in the spread of disease. Although the small-world effect has been found to have a significant impact on epidemics in single networks, the small-world effect on epidemics in interconnected networks has rarely been considered. Here, we study the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS model of epidemic spreading in a system comprising two interconnected small-world networks. We find that the epidemic threshold in such networks decreases when the rewiring probability of the component small-world networks increases. When the infection rate is low, the rewiring probability affects the global steady-state infection density, whereas when the infection rate is high, the infection density is insensitive to the rewiring probability. Moreover, epidemics in interconnected small-world networks are found to spread at different velocities that depend on the rewiring probability.

  8. Cooperative epidemics on multiplex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azimi-Tafreshi, N.

    2016-04-01

    The spread of one disease, in some cases, can stimulate the spreading of another infectious disease. Here, we treat analytically a symmetric coinfection model for spreading of two diseases on a two-layer multiplex network. We allow layer overlapping, but we assume that each layer is random and locally loopless. Infection with one of the diseases increases the probability of getting infected with the other. Using the generating function method, we calculate exactly the fraction of individuals infected with both diseases (so-called coinfected clusters) in the stationary state, as well as the epidemic spreading thresholds and the phase diagram of the model. With increasing cooperation, we observe a tricritical point and the type of transition changes from continuous to hybrid. Finally, we compare the coinfected clusters in the case of cooperating diseases with the so-called "viable" clusters in networks with dependencies.

  9. Epidemic Survivability: Characterizing Networks Under Epidemic-like Failure Propagation Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manzano, Marc; Calle, Eusebi; Ripoll, Jordi

    2013-01-01

    Epidemics theory has been used in different contexts in order to describe the propagation of diseases, human interactions or natural phenomena. In computer science, virus spreading has been also characterized using epidemic models. Although in the past the use of epidemic models...... in telecommunication networks has not been extensively considered, nowadays, with the increasing computation capacity and complexity of operating systems of modern network devices (routers, switches, etc.), the study of possible epidemic-like failure scenarios must be taken into account. When epidemics occur......, such as in other multiple failure scenarios, identifying the level of vulnerability offered by a network is one of the main challenges. In this paper, we present epidemic survivability, a new network measure that describes the vulnerability of each node of a network under a specific epidemic intensity. Moreover...

  10. About Military Sexual Trauma

    Medline Plus

    Full Text Available ... why Close About Military Sexual Trauma Veterans Health Administration Loading... Unsubscribe from Veterans Health Administration? Cancel Unsubscribe Working... Subscribe Subscribed Unsubscribe 20K Loading... ...

  11. Vedr.: Military capacity building

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Josefine Kühnel; Struwe, Lars Bangert

    2013-01-01

    Military capacity building has increasingly become an integral part of Danish defence. Military capacity is a new way of thinking Danish defence and poses a new set of challenges and opportunities for the Danish military and the Political leadership. On the 12th of december, PhD. Candidate Josefine...... Kühnel Larsen and researcher Lars Bangert Struwe of CMS had organized a seminar in collaboration with Royal Danish Defense Colleg and the East African Security Governance Network. The seminar focused on some of the risks involved in Military capacity building and how these risks are dealt with from...

  12. About Military Sexual Trauma

    Medline Plus

    Full Text Available ... out why Close About Military Sexual Trauma Veterans Health Administration Loading... Unsubscribe from Veterans Health Administration? Cancel Unsubscribe Working... Subscribe Subscribed Unsubscribe 19K ...

  13. About Military Sexual Trauma

    Medline Plus

    Full Text Available ... out why Close About Military Sexual Trauma Veterans Health Administration Loading... Unsubscribe from Veterans Health Administration? Cancel Unsubscribe Working... Subscribe Subscribed Unsubscribe 20K ...

  14. The Military's Business

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Mikkel Vedby

    If the military were a business, would you buy shares? Over recent years, Western armed forces, particularly the US, have been costing more yet achieving less. At the same time, austerity measures are reducing defence budgets. This book uses defence data to examine the workings of modern Western...... militaries and explore what kind of strategies can overcome this gap between input and output. Instead of focusing on military strategy, Mikkel Vedby Rasmussen seeks to draw on the ideas of business strategy to assess alternative business cases - reforming military HR to combat instability in the 'Global...

  15. The Military's Business

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Mikkel Vedby

    If the military were a business, would you buy shares? Over recent years, Western armed forces, particularly the US, have been costing more yet achieving less. At the same time, austerity measures are reducing defence budgets. This book uses defence data to examine the workings of modern Western...... militaries and explore what kind of strategies can overcome this gap between input and output. Instead of focusing on military strategy, Mikkel Vedby Rasmussen seeks to draw on the ideas of business strategy to assess alternative business cases - reforming military HR to combat instability in the 'Global...... to fit within a nation's overall national security system without ever-increasing budgets....

  16. About Military Sexual Trauma

    Medline Plus

    Full Text Available ... why Close About Military Sexual Trauma Veterans Health Administration Loading... Unsubscribe from Veterans Health Administration? Cancel Unsubscribe Working... Subscribe Subscribed Unsubscribe 19K Loading... ...

  17. Percolation and epidemics in random clustered networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Joel C.

    2009-08-01

    The social networks that infectious diseases spread along are typically clustered. Because of the close relation between percolation and epidemic spread, the behavior of percolation in such networks gives insight into infectious disease dynamics. A number of authors have studied percolation or epidemics in clustered networks, but the networks often contain preferential contacts in high degree nodes. We introduce a class of random clustered networks and a class of random unclustered networks with the same preferential mixing. Percolation in the clustered networks reduces the component sizes and increases the epidemic threshold compared to the unclustered networks.

  18. Predicting extinction rates in stochastic epidemic models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schwartz, Ira B; Billings, Lora; Dykman, Mark; Landsman, Alexandra

    2009-01-01

    We investigate the stochastic extinction processes in a class of epidemic models. Motivated by the process of natural disease extinction in epidemics, we examine the rate of extinction as a function of disease spread. We show that the effective entropic barrier for extinction in a susceptible–infected–susceptible epidemic model displays scaling with the distance to the bifurcation point, with an unusual critical exponent. We make a direct comparison between predictions and numerical simulations. We also consider the effect of non-Gaussian vaccine schedules, and show numerically how the extinction process may be enhanced when the vaccine schedules are Poisson distributed

  19. Military and Political Studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexey I. Podberyozkin

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Military-political issues is an important area of research work at MGIMO. The difference in this direction from the classical international specialization is that it is at the intersection of several disciplines: military science, military-technical and military-industrial as well as International Relations. A specialist in military and political issues should not only be an expert in the field of international relations and diplomacy, but also have a deep knowledge of military-technical issues to understand the basic trends in the development of scientific and technological progress and its impact on the balance of forces in the world. Global changes in the balance of power and the nature of the conflict, the emergence of new types of weapons are changing the basic methods and approaches to the art of war, which requires a science-based perspective on problem solving and multi-disciplinary approach in achieving the goals. Military and political studies allow us to understand how the development of military technology and military organization of the state affected by the political situation in the world, the national security of the country and its place in the system of international relations. Military-political research has been developing at MGIMO for a few decades. It laid down the basis for a scientific school of political-military studies. Its founding fathers were such prominent scholars of international affairs, as I.G. Usachyov, A.D. Nikonov, A.G. Arbatov, V.G. Baranovsky, V.M. Kulagin, A.N. Nikitin and other well-known experts. Their work covers a wide range of military and political issues, including the topics of arms control and disarmament, international, and especially European security, military policy, NATO, the Western military-political doctrines and their practical application. Now the lead in the development of this research at MGIMO has taken Center for Military-Political Studies, which became a concentration of relevant

  20. Military and Military Medical Support in Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI/H5N1) Pandemic Scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taleski, V.

    2007-01-01

    Avian influenza (Bird flu) is a highly contagious viral disease affecting mainly chickens, turkeys, ducks, other birds and mammals. Reservoirs for HPAI /H5N1 virus are shore birds and waterfowl (asymptomatic, excrete virus in feces for a long periods of time), live bird markets and commercial swine facilities. Virus tends to cycle between pigs and birds. HPAI (H5N1) virus is on every 'top ten' list available for potential agricultural bio-weapon agents. The threat of a HPAI/H5N1 pandemic is a definitively global phenomenon and the response must be global. A number of National plans led to various measures of preventing and dealing with epidemics/pandemics. Lessons learned form the pandemic history indicated essential role of military and military medical support to civil authorities in a crisis situation. Based on International Military Medical Avian Influenza Pandemic workshop (Vienna 2006), an expected scenario would involve 30-50% outpatients, 20-30% hospital admission, 2-3% deaths, 10-20% complicated cases. Activities of civil hospital may be reduced by 50%. Benefits of military support could be in: Transportation of patients (primarily by air); Mass vaccination and provision of all other preventive measures (masks, Tamiflu); Restriction of movements; Infection control of health care facilities; Field hospitals for triage and quarantine, military barracks to treat milder cases and military hospitals for severe cases; Deal with corpses; Stockpiling (vaccines, antiviral, antibiotics, protective equipment, supplies); Training; Laboratories; Ensure public safety, etc. With the aim of minimizing the risk of a pandemic spread by means of rapid and uncomplicated cooperation, an early warning system has to be established to improve surveillance, improve international contacts (WHO, ECDC, CDC), establish Platform for sharing information, close contacts of national and international military and civilian surveillance networks and databases, cooperation between military

  1. Epidemic spreading in a hierarchical social network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grabowski, A; Kosiński, R A

    2004-09-01

    A model of epidemic spreading in a population with a hierarchical structure of interpersonal interactions is described and investigated numerically. The structure of interpersonal connections is based on a scale-free network. Spatial localization of individuals belonging to different social groups, and the mobility of a contemporary community, as well as the effectiveness of different interpersonal interactions, are taken into account. Typical relations characterizing the spreading process, like a range of epidemic and epidemic curves, are discussed. The influence of preventive vaccinations on the spreading process is investigated. The critical value of preventively vaccinated individuals that is sufficient for the suppression of an epidemic is calculated. Our results are compared with solutions of the master equation for the spreading process and good agreement of the character of this process is found.

  2. Modeling Epidemics Spreading on Social Contact Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zhaoyang; Wang, Honggang; Wang, Chonggang; Fang, Hua

    2015-09-01

    Social contact networks and the way people interact with each other are the key factors that impact on epidemics spreading. However, it is challenging to model the behavior of epidemics based on social contact networks due to their high dynamics. Traditional models such as susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model ignore the crowding or protection effect and thus has some unrealistic assumption. In this paper, we consider the crowding or protection effect and develop a novel model called improved SIR model. Then, we use both deterministic and stochastic models to characterize the dynamics of epidemics on social contact networks. The results from both simulations and real data set conclude that the epidemics are more likely to outbreak on social contact networks with higher average degree. We also present some potential immunization strategies, such as random set immunization, dominating set immunization, and high degree set immunization to further prove the conclusion.

  3. The prediction of epidemics through mathematical modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaus, Catherine

    2014-01-01

    Mathematical models may be resorted to in an endeavor to predict the development of epidemics. The SIR model is one of the applications. Still too approximate, the use of statistics awaits more data in order to come closer to reality.

  4. The hidden epidemic: confronting sexually transmitted diseases

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Eng, Thomas R; Butler, William T

    .... In addition, STDs increase the risk of HIV transmission. The Hidden Epidemic examines the scope of sexually transmitted infections in the United States and provides a critical assessment of the nation's response to this public health crisis...

  5. Epidemic spreading on weighted complex networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sun, Ye; Liu, Chuang; Zhang, Chu-Xu; Zhang, Zi-Ke

    2014-01-01

    Nowadays, the emergence of online services provides various multi-relation information to support the comprehensive understanding of the epidemic spreading process. In this Letter, we consider the edge weights to represent such multi-role relations. In addition, we perform detailed analysis of two representative metrics, outbreak threshold and epidemic prevalence, on SIS and SIR models. Both theoretical and simulation results find good agreements with each other. Furthermore, experiments show that, on fully mixed networks, the weight distribution on edges would not affect the epidemic results once the average weight of whole network is fixed. This work may shed some light on the in-depth understanding of epidemic spreading on multi-relation and weighted networks.

  6. Epidemic spreading on weighted complex networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sun, Ye [Institute of Information Economy, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Alibaba Research Center of Complexity Science, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Liu, Chuang, E-mail: liuchuang@hznu.edu.cn [Institute of Information Economy, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Alibaba Research Center of Complexity Science, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Zhang, Chu-Xu [Institute of Information Economy, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Alibaba Research Center of Complexity Science, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Zhang, Zi-Ke, E-mail: zhangzike@gmail.com [Institute of Information Economy, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Alibaba Research Center of Complexity Science, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China)

    2014-01-31

    Nowadays, the emergence of online services provides various multi-relation information to support the comprehensive understanding of the epidemic spreading process. In this Letter, we consider the edge weights to represent such multi-role relations. In addition, we perform detailed analysis of two representative metrics, outbreak threshold and epidemic prevalence, on SIS and SIR models. Both theoretical and simulation results find good agreements with each other. Furthermore, experiments show that, on fully mixed networks, the weight distribution on edges would not affect the epidemic results once the average weight of whole network is fixed. This work may shed some light on the in-depth understanding of epidemic spreading on multi-relation and weighted networks.

  7. Military Justice Study Guide

    Science.gov (United States)

    1990-07-01

    statute within the military system, persons unfamiliar with the military justice system may find the procedure something of a paradox at first blush...Manual for Courts-Martial) Is RM Nemitafinuestlitimelf.(er- V. GRAD*: c. ORGANIZATION dDT FRPR ast eiRO t: fII) EPR LCDR/ Naval Justice School

  8. Families in the Military

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... family that loses the active presence of a parent through separation faces significant challenges and stress. During the parent's ... children can and do adjust successfully to the separation and stress involved when a parent in the military is deployed. Visit AACAP's Military ...

  9. Epidemics and rumours in complex networks

    CERN Document Server

    Draief, Moez

    2009-01-01

    Information propagation through peer-to-peer systems, online social systems, wireless mobile ad hoc networks and other modern structures can be modelled as an epidemic on a network of contacts. Understanding how epidemic processes interact with network topology allows us to predict ultimate course, understand phase transitions and develop strategies to control and optimise dissemination. This book is a concise introduction for applied mathematicians and computer scientists to basic models, analytical tools and mathematical and algorithmic results. Mathematical tools introduced include coupling

  10. Iraqi Military Academies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nodar Z. Mossaki

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The article analyzes the system of training of officers in military academies in Iraq – in Zakho, Qalacholan, ar-Rustamiyah and an-Nasiriyah. The author describes the history of creation, process of evolution, challenges and features of training in these colleges. Particular attention paid to military academies in the territory of Iraqi Kurdistan, which actually do not obey the central government of Iraq, however, have the highest level of training. Currently, Iraq's military academies operate on the basis of the NATO standards. Iraqi military academies paid miuch attention to the specifics of the military and political situation in Iraq – counterinsurgency and counterterrorism operations, patrolling cities, fighting in an urban environment etc. Significant place in the curriculum take the courses contributing to the formation of pro-Western sentiment.

  11. Phylodynamic analysis of HIV sub-epidemics in Mochudi, Botswana

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vlad Novitsky

    2015-12-01

    Real-time HIV genotyping and breaking down local HIV epidemics into phylogenetically distinct sub-epidemics may help to reveal the structure and dynamics of HIV transmission networks in communities, and aid in the design of targeted interventions for members of the acute sub-epidemics that likely fuel local HIV/AIDS epidemics.

  12. Young Australians’ Attitudes to the Military and Military Service

    OpenAIRE

    Ben Wadham; Grace Skrzypiec; Phillip Slee

    2014-01-01

    What are young Australians’ understandings of, and attitudes to, the military and military service? This article describes a pilot study of 320 young Australian university students’ attitudes to the military and military service during a time when Australia was engaged in the Afghanistan war. The main purpose of this study was to develop a survey instrument for further work in researching civil–military relations in Au...

  13. Military legislation: explaining military officers' writing deficiencies

    OpenAIRE

    Borysov, Andrii

    2016-01-01

    Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited In performing jobs related to national security and defense, personnel must comply with rules and decisions communicated in the form of written legislation, which includes directives, memos, instructions, manuals, standard operating procedures, and reports. Incorrect understanding of legislative provisions may lead to disastrous consequences, making clear communication through these documents paramount. The vast majority of military of...

  14. Concurrency can drive an HIV epidemic by moving R0 across the epidemic threshold

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Leung, Ka Yin; Kretzschmar, Mirjam

    2015-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study is to investigate whether concurrency can drive an HIV epidemic by moving R0 across the epidemic threshold. DESIGN AND METHODS: We use a mathematical framework for a dynamic partnership network and the spread of a one-stage infection to study how concurrency is

  15. MILITARY LEADERSHIP VISION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gheorghe CALOPĂREANU

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The actual study is aimed at defining the place and the role of the concepts of authority, management and leadership and their connexions within the recognized military strategic systems. In addition to the above mentioned main objective, the following related aims will be achieved in the present work: - to analyze the command, management and leadership nexus; - to make suggestions for configuring an effective professional framework to address the armed forces leadership challenges and the visionary leader concept. Eventually, the present study will emphasize the need for the military leaders to lead not only the members of the organization but the military organizations themselves.

  16. Cordyceps militaris alleviates non-alcoholic fatty liver disease in ob/ob mice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Ha-Neul; Jang, Yang-Hee; Kim, Min-Joo; Seo, Min Jeong; Kang, Byoung Won; Jeong, Yong Kee; Kim, Jung-In

    2014-04-01

    Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is becoming an important public health problem as metabolic syndrome and type 2 diabetes have become epidemic. In this study we investigated the protective effect of Cordyceps militaris (C. militaris) against NAFLD in an obese mouse model. Four-week-old male ob/ob mice were fed an AIN-93G diet or a diet containing 1% C. militaris water extract for 10 weeks after 1 week of adaptation. Serum glucose, insulin, free fatty acid (FFA), alanine transaminase (ALT), and proinflammatory cytokines were measured. Hepatic levels of lipids, glutathione (GSH), and lipid peroxide were determined. Consumption of C. militaris significantly decreased serum glucose, as well as homeostasis model assessment for insulin resistance (HOMA-IR), in ob/ob mice. In addition to lowering serum FFA levels, C. militaris also significantly decreased hepatic total lipids and triglyceride contents. Serum ALT activities and tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α) and interleukin-6 (IL-6) levels were reduced by C. militaris. Consumption of C. militaris increased hepatic GSH and reduced lipid peroxide levels. These results indicate that C. militaris can exert protective effects against development of NAFLD, partly by reducing inflammatory cytokines and improving hepatic antioxidant status in ob/ob mice.

  17. HIV epidemics in Shenzhen and Chongqing, China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shu Yang

    Full Text Available Men who have sex with men (MSM and heterosexuals are the populations with the fastest growing HIV infection rates in China. We characterize the epidemic growth and age patterns between these two routes from 2004 to 2015 in Chongqing and Shenzhen, China.Data were downloaded from the National HIV/ AIDS Comprehensive Response Information Management System. For the new HIV diagnoses of heterosexuals and MSM in both cities, we estimated the growth rates by fitting different sub-exponential models. Heat maps are used to show their age patterns. We used histograms to compare these patterns by birth cohort.The MSM epidemics grew significantly in both cities. Chongqing experienced quadratic growth in HIV reported cases with an estimated growth rate of 0.086 per week and a "deceleration rate" of 0.673. HIV reported cases of MSM in Shenzhen grew even more drastically with a growth rate of 0.033 per week and "deceleration rate" of 0.794. The new infections are mainly affecting the ages of 18 to 30 in Chongqing and ages of 20 to 35 in Shenzhen. They peaked in early 1990's and mid-1990's birth cohorts in Chongqing and Shenzhen respectively. The HIV epidemic among heterosexuals grew rapidly in both cities. The growth rates were estimated as 0.02 and 0.028 in Chongqing and Shenzhen respectively whereas the "deceleration rates" were 0.878 and 0.790 in these two places. It affected mostly aged 18 to 75 in males and 18 to 65 in females in Chongqing and aged 18 to 45 in males and 18 to 50 in females in Shenzhen in 2015. In Chongqing, the heterosexual female epidemics display two peaks in HIV diagnoses in the birth cohorts of early 1950's and early 1980's, with heterosexual male epidemics peaked in early 1940's and early 1960's. The heterosexual male and female epidemics display higher rates in the birth cohort 1940-1960, than the birth cohort 1960-1990. It peaked in birth cohorts of 1950's and 1980's in Shenzhen.We revealed striking differences in epidemic growth

  18. Ten Putative Contributors to the Obesity Epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    McAllister, Emily J.; Dhurandhar, Nikhil V.; Keith, Scott W.; Aronne, Louis J.; Barger, Jamie; Baskin, Monica; Benca, Ruth M.; Biggio, Joseph; Boggiano, Mary M.; Eisenmann, Joe C.; Elobeid, Mai; Fontaine, Kevin R.; Gluckman, Peter; Hanlon, Erin C.; Katzmarzyk, Peter; Pietrobelli, Angelo; Redden, David T.; Ruden, Douglas M.; Wang, Chenxi; Waterland, Robert A.; Wright, Suzanne M.; Allison, David B.

    2010-01-01

    The obesity epidemic is a global issue and shows no signs of abating, while the cause of this epidemic remains unclear. Marketing practices of energy-dense foods and institutionally-driven declines in physical activity are the alleged perpetrators for the epidemic, despite a lack of solid evidence to demonstrate their causal role. While both may contribute to obesity, we call attention to their unquestioned dominance in program funding and public efforts to reduce obesity, and propose several alternative putative contributors that would benefit from equal consideration and attention. Evidence for microorganisms, epigenetics, increasing maternal age, greater fecundity among people with higher adiposity, assortative mating, sleep debt, endocrine disruptors, pharmaceutical iatrogenesis, reduction in variability of ambient temperatures, and intrauterine and intergenerational effects, as contributing factors to the obesity epidemic are reviewed herein. While the evidence is strong for some contributors such as pharmaceutical-induced weight gain, it is still emerging for other reviewed factors. Considering the role of such putative etiological factors of obesity may lead to comprehensive, cause specific, and effective strategies for prevention and treatment of this global epidemic. PMID:19960394

  19. About Military Sexual Trauma

    Medline Plus

    Full Text Available ... Try it free Find out why Close About Military Sexual Trauma Veterans Health Administration Loading... Unsubscribe from ... Veterans Health Administration 2,027 views 25:30 Language: English Location: United States Restricted Mode: Off History ...

  20. Forecasting military expenditure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tobias Böhmelt

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available To what extent do frequently cited determinants of military spending allow us to predict and forecast future levels of expenditure? The authors draw on the data and specifications of a recent model on military expenditure and assess the predictive power of its variables using in-sample predictions, out-of-sample forecasts and Bayesian model averaging. To this end, this paper provides guidelines for prediction exercises in general using these three techniques. More substantially, however, the findings emphasize that previous levels of military spending as well as a country’s institutional and economic characteristics particularly improve our ability to predict future levels of investment in the military. Variables pertaining to the international security environment also matter, but seem less important. In addition, the results highlight that the updated model, which drops weak predictors, is not only more parsimonious, but also slightly more accurate than the original specification.

  1. Military Deception Reconsidered

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Martin, Charmaine L

    2008-01-01

    ...: focus, integration, timeliness, security, objective, and centralized control. However, I propose that operational advantage, consisting of surprise, information advantage and security, are essential elements of a successful military deception...

  2. About Military Sexual Trauma

    Medline Plus

    Full Text Available ... count__/__total__ Find out why Close About Military Sexual Trauma Veterans Health Administration Loading... Unsubscribe from Veterans ... Loading... Loading... Rating is available when the video has been rented. This feature is not available right ...

  3. About Military Sexual Trauma

    Medline Plus

    Full Text Available ... it free Find out why Close About Military Sexual Trauma Veterans Health Administration Loading... Unsubscribe from Veterans ... is Cognitive Processing Therapy (CPT) [for posttraumatic stress disorder]? - Duration: 2:01. Veterans Health Administration 27,844 ...

  4. About Military Sexual Trauma

    Medline Plus

    Full Text Available ... Try it free Find out why Close About Military Sexual Trauma Veterans Health Administration Loading... Unsubscribe from ... 5:31 Get Fit for Life (8) Strength/Balance Training - Duration: 32:02. Veterans Health Administration 2, ...

  5. About Military Sexual Trauma

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Try it free Find out why Close About Military Sexual Trauma Veterans Health Administration Loading... Unsubscribe from ... 5:31 Get Fit for Life (8) Strength/Balance Training - Duration: 32:02. Veterans Health Administration 2, ...

  6. The Military Cooperation Group

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Renzi, Jr, Alfred E

    2006-01-01

    .... This thesis will describe a structure to assist with both those needs. The premise is that an expanded and improved network of US Military Groups is the weapon of choice for the war on terror, and beyond...

  7. Privatized Military Operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    2006-01-01

    environment such as that in Abu Grahib prison , where military personnel tasked with similar duties to that of contractors have been held legally accountable... Grahib Prison . The Washington Post. Office of Management and Budget Circular A-76. (August 4, 1988. Revised 1999). Performance of Commercial...downsizes the military after the Global War on Terror as it did after the Cold War. Private contractors depend largely upon former service members to

  8. The Professional Military Ethic

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-12-14

    would require of us. (In fact, it could ultimately end up requiring us to do harm.) This is a case of cultural relativism in its least plausible...recent accounts of the PME that seek its source in various artifacts of our military culture and society. Moral obligation is a product of...that seek its source in various artifacts of our military culture and society. Moral obligation is a product of individual abilities and relationships

  9. Do Military Personnel Patent

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-12-01

    following questions: In what fields are military personnel most likely to patent, and how do demographics, such as age, race, and gender , along with...technologies, which have transformed how the United States wages war. DARPA continues to develop new technologies and capabilities for the U.S. military today...build the European navies so it instead decided to utilize an innovative ship design to exploit a gap specific to the British Royal Navy. The six

  10. Can epidemics be non-communicable?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Seeberg, Jens; Meinert, Lotte

    2015-01-01

    This article argues that the concept of communicability that is central to the distinction between communicable diseases (CDs) and noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) is poorly conceptualized. The epidemic spread of NCDs such as diabetes, depression, and eating disorders demonstrates...... that they are communicable, even if they are not infectious. We need to more critically explore how they might be communicable in specific environments. All diseases with epidemic potential, we argue, should be assumed to be commun icable in a broader sense, and that the underlying medical distinction between infectious...... and noninfectious diseases confuses our understanding of NCD epidemics when these categories are treated as synonymous with ‘communicable’ and ‘noncommunicable’ diseases, respectively. The dominant role accorded to the concept of ‘lifestyle’, with its focus on individual responsibility, is part of the problem...

  11. Worm epidemics in wireless ad hoc networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nekovee, Maziar [BT Research, Polaris 134, Adastral Park, Martlesham, Suffolk IP5 3RE (United Kingdom); Centre for Computational Science, University College London, 20 Gordon Street, London WC1H 0AJ (United Kingdom)

    2007-06-15

    A dramatic increase in the number of computing devices with wireless communication capability has resulted in the emergence of a new class of computer worms which specifically target such devices. The most striking feature of these worms is that they do not require Internet connectivity for their propagation but can spread directly from device to device using a short-range radio communication technology, such as WiFi or Bluetooth. In this paper, we develop a new model for epidemic spreading of these worms and investigate their spreading in wireless ad hoc networks via extensive Monte Carlo simulations. Our studies show that the threshold behaviour and dynamics of worm epidemics in these networks are greatly affected by a combination of spatial and temporal correlations which characterize these networks, and are significantly different from the previously studied epidemics in the Internet.

  12. Urgent epidemic control mechanism for aviation networks

    KAUST Repository

    Peng, Chengbin; Wang, Shengbin; Shi, Meixia; Jin, Xiaogang

    2011-01-01

    In the current century, the highly developed transportation system can not only boost the economy, but also greatly accelerate the spreading of epidemics. While some epidemic diseases may infect quite a number of people ahead of our awareness, the health care resources such as vaccines and the medical staff are usually locally or even globally insufficient. In this research, with the network of major aviation routes as an example, we present a method to determine the optimal locations to allocate the medical service in order to minimize the impact of the infectious disease with limited resources. Specifically, we demonstrate that when the medical resources are insufficient, we should concentrate our efforts on the travelers with the objective of effectively controlling the spreading rate of the epidemic diseases. © 2011 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

  13. Vaccination intervention on epidemic dynamics in networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Xiao-Long; Xu, Xin-Jian; Fu, Xinchu; Zhou, Tao

    2013-02-01

    Vaccination is an important measure available for preventing or reducing the spread of infectious diseases. In this paper, an epidemic model including susceptible, infected, and imperfectly vaccinated compartments is studied on Watts-Strogatz small-world, Barabási-Albert scale-free, and random scale-free networks. The epidemic threshold and prevalence are analyzed. For small-world networks, the effective vaccination intervention is suggested and its influence on the threshold and prevalence is analyzed. For scale-free networks, the threshold is found to be strongly dependent both on the effective vaccination rate and on the connectivity distribution. Moreover, so long as vaccination is effective, it can linearly decrease the epidemic prevalence in small-world networks, whereas for scale-free networks it acts exponentially. These results can help in adopting pragmatic treatment upon diseases in structured populations.

  14. Worm epidemics in wireless ad hoc networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nekovee, Maziar

    2007-06-01

    A dramatic increase in the number of computing devices with wireless communication capability has resulted in the emergence of a new class of computer worms which specifically target such devices. The most striking feature of these worms is that they do not require Internet connectivity for their propagation but can spread directly from device to device using a short-range radio communication technology, such as WiFi or Bluetooth. In this paper, we develop a new model for epidemic spreading of these worms and investigate their spreading in wireless ad hoc networks via extensive Monte Carlo simulations. Our studies show that the threshold behaviour and dynamics of worm epidemics in these networks are greatly affected by a combination of spatial and temporal correlations which characterize these networks, and are significantly different from the previously studied epidemics in the Internet.

  15. GENERAL: Epidemic spreading on networks with vaccination

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Hong-Jing; Duan, Zhi-Sheng; Chen, Guan-Rong; Li, Rong

    2009-08-01

    In this paper, a new susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model on complex networks with imperfect vaccination is proposed. Two types of epidemic spreading patterns (the recovered individuals have or have not immunity) on scale-free networks are discussed. Both theoretical and numerical analyses are presented. The epidemic thresholds related to the vaccination rate, the vaccination-invalid rate and the vaccination success rate on scale-free networks are demonstrated, showing different results from the reported observations. This reveals that whether or not the epidemic can spread over a network under vaccination control is determined not only by the network structure but also by the medicine's effective duration. Moreover, for a given infective rate, the proportion of individuals to vaccinate can be calculated theoretically for the case that the recovered nodes have immunity. Finally, simulated results are presented to show how to control the disease prevalence.

  16. Different Epidemic Models on Complex Networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Haifeng; Small, Michael; Fu Xinchu

    2009-01-01

    Models for diseases spreading are not just limited to SIS or SIR. For instance, for the spreading of AIDS/HIV, the susceptible individuals can be classified into different cases according to their immunity, and similarly, the infected individuals can be sorted into different classes according to their infectivity. Moreover, some diseases may develop through several stages. Many authors have shown that the individuals' relation can be viewed as a complex network. So in this paper, in order to better explain the dynamical behavior of epidemics, we consider different epidemic models on complex networks, and obtain the epidemic threshold for each case. Finally, we present numerical simulations for each case to verify our results.

  17. Worm epidemics in wireless ad hoc networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nekovee, Maziar

    2007-01-01

    A dramatic increase in the number of computing devices with wireless communication capability has resulted in the emergence of a new class of computer worms which specifically target such devices. The most striking feature of these worms is that they do not require Internet connectivity for their propagation but can spread directly from device to device using a short-range radio communication technology, such as WiFi or Bluetooth. In this paper, we develop a new model for epidemic spreading of these worms and investigate their spreading in wireless ad hoc networks via extensive Monte Carlo simulations. Our studies show that the threshold behaviour and dynamics of worm epidemics in these networks are greatly affected by a combination of spatial and temporal correlations which characterize these networks, and are significantly different from the previously studied epidemics in the Internet

  18. The epidemic of Tuberculosis on vaccinated population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Syahrini, Intan; Sriwahyuni; Halfiani, Vera; Meurah Yuni, Syarifah; Iskandar, Taufiq; Rasudin; Ramli, Marwan

    2017-09-01

    Tuberculosis is an infectious disease which has caused a large number of mortality in Indonesia. This disease is caused by Mycrobacterium tuberculosis. Besides affecting lung, this disease also affects other organs such as lymph gland, intestine, kidneys, uterus, bone, and brain. This article discusses the epidemic of tuberculosis through employing the SEIR model. Here, the population is divided into four compartments which are susceptible, exposed, infected and recovered. The susceptible population is further grouped into two which are vaccinated group and unvaccinated group. The behavior of the epidemic is investigated through analysing the equilibrium of the model. The result shows that administering vaccine to the susceptible population contributes to the reduction of the tuberculosis epidemic rate.

  19. Selling petroleum to the military

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Uscher, R.H.

    1999-01-01

    This article examines what petroleum products and services the US military buys, the contracts awarded to Asian and European refiners for supplies outside the USA, and military specifications and test methods including the specifications of JP-8 battlefield fuel and the JP-8+100 additive package for military aircraft. The way in which the military buys petroleum products is described, and details are given of the types of military contracts, the bidding on Defense Energy Support Center (DESC) petroleum contracts, the performance of military petroleum contracts, socio-economic programmes, the Prompt Payment Act requiring contractors to be paid promptly, and procedures for claims and disputes

  20. private military contractors, war crimes and international

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    HP USER

    work.10 Military history has recorded a strong role for private actors in military affairs firmly ..... Evidence records that, while the state military officers found by a military ... Should it be the chief executive officer (CEO) of .... The Financial Times.

  1. Gendered Epidemics and Systems of Power in Africa: A Feminist ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    creating an environment that increases women's vulnerability to epidemics. The article ..... to epidemics because rarely, if ever, does a single reason account for their vulnerability. ... life as a young woman. Contraception gave her freedom from.

  2. the south african hiv epidemic, reflected by nine provincial ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    the distribution and trend of the HIV epidemic in each of the ... The exponential model significantly explains the HIV epidemics in the .... such a curve is considered to be made up of three. October 199 ..... Ut: Quantitative Forecasting Methods.

  3. Phylogenetics of the Danish HIV epidemic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Audelin, Anne Margrethe; Cowan, Susan A; Obel, Niels

    2013-01-01

    BACKGROUND:: In Denmark 300 new individuals are diagnosed with HIV every year, despite decades of public health campaigns aimed to raise awareness of potential risk behaviour for HIV transmission. It is important to identify the driving forces of the epidemic, to enable more targeted campaigns...

  4. CDC Vital Signs: Today's Heroin Epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... the MMWR Science Clips Today’s Heroin Epidemic More people at risk, multiple drugs abused Language: English (US) Español Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir On This Page Overview Problem Infographics What Can Be Done Issue Details Overview Heroin use has increased across the US among men and ...

  5. [A prognostic model of a cholera epidemic].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boev, B V; Bondarenko, V M; Prokop'eva, N V; San Román, R T; Raygoza-Anaya, M; García de Alba, R

    1994-01-01

    A new model for the prognostication of cholera epidemic on the territory of a large city is proposed. This model reflects the characteristic feature of contacting infection by sensitive individuals due to the preservation of Vibrio cholerae in their water habitat. The mathematical model of the epidemic quantitatively reflects the processes of the spread of infection by kinetic equations describing the interaction of the streams of infected persons, the causative agents and susceptible persons. The functions and parameters of the model are linked with the distribution of individuals according to the duration of the incubation period and infectious process, as well as the period of asymptomatic carrier state. The computer realization of the model by means of IBM PC/AT made it possible to study the cholera epidemic which took place in Mexico in 1833. The verified model of the cholera epidemic was used for the prognostication of the possible spread of this infection in Guadalajara, taking into account changes in the epidemiological situation and the size of the population, as well as improvements in sanitary and hygienic conditions, in the city.

  6. The Prescription Opioid Pain Medication Overdose Epidemic

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2016-04-19

    Overdose related to prescription opioids has become an epidemic. This podcast discusses the risks of this type of drug sometimes used to treat pain, and how to protect yourself. .  Created: 4/19/2016 by National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion (NCCDPHP).   Date Released: 4/19/2016.

  7. Alternative risk financing instruments for swine epidemics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meuwissen, M.P.M.; Asseldonk, van M.A.P.M.; Huirne, R.B.M.

    2003-01-01

    Swine epidemics can have very large devastating financial consequences. Governments generally bear the direct losses, such as the value of destroyed animals. Consequential losses, such as the losses resulting from empty buildings and movement standstills, are completely borne by the farmers (and

  8. A Weighted Configuration Model and Inhomogeneous Epidemics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Britton, Tom; Deijfen, Maria; Liljeros, Fredrik

    2011-12-01

    A random graph model with prescribed degree distribution and degree dependent edge weights is introduced. Each vertex is independently equipped with a random number of half-edges and each half-edge is assigned an integer valued weight according to a distribution that is allowed to depend on the degree of its vertex. Half-edges with the same weight are then paired randomly to create edges. An expression for the threshold for the appearance of a giant component in the resulting graph is derived using results on multi-type branching processes. The same technique also gives an expression for the basic reproduction number for an epidemic on the graph where the probability that a certain edge is used for transmission is a function of the edge weight (reflecting how closely `connected' the corresponding vertices are). It is demonstrated that, if vertices with large degree tend to have large (small) weights on their edges and if the transmission probability increases with the edge weight, then it is easier (harder) for the epidemic to take off compared to a randomized epidemic with the same degree and weight distribution. A recipe for calculating the probability of a large outbreak in the epidemic and the size of such an outbreak is also given. Finally, the model is fitted to three empirical weighted networks of importance for the spread of contagious diseases and it is shown that R 0 can be substantially over- or underestimated if the correlation between degree and weight is not taken into account.

  9. Epidemic spreading on preferred degree adaptive networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jolad, Shivakumar; Liu, Wenjia; Schmittmann, B; Zia, R K P

    2012-01-01

    We study the standard SIS model of epidemic spreading on networks where individuals have a fluctuating number of connections around a preferred degree κ. Using very simple rules for forming such preferred degree networks, we find some unusual statistical properties not found in familiar Erdös-Rényi or scale free networks. By letting κ depend on the fraction of infected individuals, we model the behavioral changes in response to how the extent of the epidemic is perceived. In our models, the behavioral adaptations can be either 'blind' or 'selective'--depending on whether a node adapts by cutting or adding links to randomly chosen partners or selectively, based on the state of the partner. For a frozen preferred network, we find that the infection threshold follows the heterogeneous mean field result λ(c)/μ = / and the phase diagram matches the predictions of the annealed adjacency matrix (AAM) approach. With 'blind' adaptations, although the epidemic threshold remains unchanged, the infection level is substantially affected, depending on the details of the adaptation. The 'selective' adaptive SIS models are most interesting. Both the threshold and the level of infection changes, controlled not only by how the adaptations are implemented but also how often the nodes cut/add links (compared to the time scales of the epidemic spreading). A simple mean field theory is presented for the selective adaptations which capture the qualitative and some of the quantitative features of the infection phase diagram.

  10. [Notes about other epidemics in Colonial Chile].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laval, Enrique

    2015-10-01

    In chronicles or in the historiography of the Colony in Chile there are few references about epidemics different to smallpox; like typhus, typhoid fever, dysentery, etc. Almost all, fast spreading in the country and some with high lethality, which led to overflowing the capacity of hospitals in the Chilean colonial period.

  11. Epidemic spreading through direct and indirect interactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ganguly, Niloy; Krueger, Tyll; Mukherjee, Animesh; Saha, Sudipta

    2014-09-01

    In this paper we study the susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic dynamics, considering a specialized setting where popular places (termed passive entities) are visited by agents (termed active entities). We consider two types of spreading dynamics: direct spreading, where the active entities infect each other while visiting the passive entities, and indirect spreading, where the passive entities act as carriers and the infection is spread via them. We investigate in particular the effect of selection strategy, i.e., the way passive entities are chosen, in the spread of epidemics. We introduce a mathematical framework to study the effect of an arbitrary selection strategy and derive formulas for prevalence, extinction probabilities, and epidemic thresholds for both indirect and direct spreading. We also obtain a very simple relationship between the extinction probability and the prevalence. We pay special attention to preferential selection and derive exact formulas. The analysis reveals that an increase in the diversity in the selection process lowers the epidemic thresholds. Comparing the direct and indirect spreading, we identify regions in the parameter space where the prevalence of the indirect spreading is higher than the direct one.

  12. Cholera Epidemic Control | Zachariah | Malawi Medical Journal

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Malawi Medical Journal. Journal Home · ABOUT THIS JOURNAL · Advanced Search · Current Issue · Archives · Journal Home > Vol 13, No 1 (2001) >. Log in or Register to get access to full text downloads. Username, Password, Remember me, or Register. Cholera Epidemic Control. R Zachariah. Full Text: EMAIL FREE ...

  13. Social epidemics in the aftermath of disasters.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    IJzermans, C.J.

    2002-01-01

    Issue/problem: After disasters, terrorist attacks and wars social epidemics of medically unexplained physical symptoms/syndromes (ups) are often seen. In modern times people feel more vulnerable and especially under pressure of those incidents, everyday symptoms are interpreted as disease and

  14. Economic cost and burden of dengue during epidemics and non-epidemic years in Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dih-Ling Luh

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: Determining the disease and economic burden of dengue is critical for the allocation of public health resources. Several studies have used disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs to estimate the disease burden of dengue in different regions. However, there are no published studies discussing the estimates of dengue-related economic and disease burden specifically in Taiwan. Objectives: We assessed the economic cost and disease burden of dengue infections in Taiwan for the period 1998–2014, and compared these during epidemic and non-epidemic years. Methods: We estimated the annual DALYs per million population using the disability weights for dengue fever (DF, dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF, dengue shock syndrome (DSS, and death cases. Economic costs were estimated and divided into direct (medical costs and indirect costs (lost work days and caregiver fees. Results: For the period 1998–2014, a mean of 115.3 (range: 6.3–934.3 DALYs per million population annually were lost to dengue. In epidemic years, direct costs associated with dengue resulted mostly from hospitalization (86.09%, emergency (7.77%, outpatient (6.10%, and drug costs (0.03%. For indirect costs, lost productivity due to death (70.76% was the dominant contributor. Overall, the costs were 12.3 times higher in epidemic years than in non-epidemic years (Wilcoxon rank sum test, p < 0.05. Conclusions: This study is the first to evaluate the economic costs and disease burden of dengue infections for this period in Taiwan, and reveals significant differences in economic impact between epidemic and non-epidemic years. Keywords: Economic cost of disease, Disease burden, Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs, Dengue, Epidemic

  15. Military Culture. A Paradigm Shift?

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Dunivin, Karen

    1997-01-01

    In this study, Lt Col Karen O. Dunivin, USAF, examines social change in American military culture and explores the current struggle between the military's traditional and exclusionary combat, masculine-warrior (CMW...

  16. Transferring the Malaria Epidemic Prediction Model to Users in East ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Transferring the Malaria Epidemic Prediction Model to Users in East Africa. In the highlands of East Africa, epidemic malaria is an emerging climate-related hazard that urgently needs addressing. Malaria incidence increased by 337% during the 1987 epidemic in Rwanda. In Tanzania, Uganda and Kenya, malaria incidence ...

  17. Enlisting in the Military

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kevin M. Beaver

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Given that enlistment in the U.S. military is completely voluntary, there has been a great deal of interest in identifying the various factors that might explain why some people join the military, whereas others do not. The current study expanded on this line of literature by estimating the extent to which genetic and environmental factors explained variance in the liability for lifetime participation in the military. Analysis of twin pairs drawn from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health (Add Health revealed that 82% of the variance was the result of genetic factors, 18% of the variance was the result of nonshared environmental factors, and none of the variance was accounted for by shared environmental factors. In light of a number of limitations, replication studies are needed to determine the robustness of these findings and whether they are generalizable to other samples and populations.

  18. Nuclear plants - military hostages

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ramberg, B.

    1986-01-01

    Recent events suggest that nuclear reactors could make tempting military or terrorist targets. Despite the care with which most reactors are built, studies document their vulnerability to willful destruction through disruption of coolant mechanisms both inside and outside the containment building. In addition to reactors, such nuclear support facilities as fuel fabrication, reprocessing, and waste storage installations may be attractive military targets. A nuclear bomb which exploded in the vicinity of a reactor could increase its lethal effects by one-third. The implications of this is vulnerability for Middle East stability as well as to other volatile regions. The author suggests several avenues for controlling the dangers: international law, military and civil defense, facility siting, increasing plant safety, and the international management of nuclear energy. 21 references

  19. Outbreak or Epidemic? How Obama's Language Choice Transformed the Ebola Outbreak Into an Epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gesser-Edelsburg, Anat; Shir-Raz, Yaffa; Bar-Lev, Oshrat Sassoni; James, James J; Green, Manfred S

    2016-08-01

    Our aim was to examine in what terms leading newspapers' online sites described the current Ebola crisis. We employed a quantitative content analysis of terms attributed to Ebola. We found and analyzed 582 articles published between March 23 and September 30, 2014, on the online websites of 3 newspapers: The New York Times, Daily Mail, and Ynet. Our theoretical framework drew from the fields of health communication and emerging infectious disease communication, including such concepts as framing media literacy, risk signatures, and mental models. We found that outbreak and epidemic were used interchangeably in the articles. From September 16, 2014, onward, epidemic predominated, corresponding to when President Barack Obama explicitly referred to Ebola as an epidemic. Prior to Obama's speech, 86.8% of the articles (323) used the term outbreak and only 8.6% (32) used the term epidemic. Subsequently, both terms were used almost the same amount: 53.8% of the articles (113) used the term outbreak and 53.3% (112) used the term epidemic. Effective communication is crucial during public health emergencies such as Ebola, because language framing affects the decision-making process of social judgments and actions. The choice of one term (outbreak) over another (epidemic) can create different conceptualizations of the disease, thereby influencing the risk signature. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2016;10:669-673).

  20. Integrated travel network model for studying epidemics: Interplay between journeys and epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruan, Zhongyuan; Wang, Chaoqing; Ming Hui, Pak; Liu, Zonghua

    2015-06-01

    The ease of travelling between cities has contributed much to globalization. Yet, it poses a threat on epidemic outbreaks. It is of great importance for network science and health control to understand the impact of frequent journeys on epidemics. We stress that a new framework of modelling that takes a traveller’s viewpoint is needed. Such integrated travel network (ITN) model should incorporate the diversity among links as dictated by the distances between cities and different speeds of different modes of transportation, diversity among nodes as dictated by the population and the ease of travelling due to infrastructures and economic development of a city, and round-trip journeys to targeted destinations via the paths of shortest travel times typical of human journeys. An example is constructed for 116 cities in China with populations over one million that are connected by high-speed train services and highways. Epidemic spread on the constructed network is studied. It is revealed both numerically and theoretically that the traveling speed and frequency are important factors of epidemic spreading. Depending on the infection rate, increasing the traveling speed would result in either an enhanced or suppressed epidemic, while increasing the traveling frequency enhances the epidemic spreading.

  1. Parameter Scaling for Epidemic Size in a Spatial Epidemic Model with Mobile Individuals.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chiyori T Urabe

    Full Text Available In recent years, serious infectious diseases tend to transcend national borders and widely spread in a global scale. The incidence and prevalence of epidemics are highly influenced not only by pathogen-dependent disease characteristics such as the force of infection, the latent period, and the infectious period, but also by human mobility and contact patterns. However, the effect of heterogeneous mobility of individuals on epidemic outcomes is not fully understood. Here, we aim to elucidate how spatial mobility of individuals contributes to the final epidemic size in a spatial susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR model with mobile individuals in a square lattice. After illustrating the interplay between the mobility parameters and the other parameters on the spatial epidemic spreading, we propose an index as a function of system parameters, which largely governs the final epidemic size. The main contribution of this study is to show that the proposed index is useful for estimating how parameter scaling affects the final epidemic size. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed index, we show that there is a positive correlation between the proposed index computed with the real data of human airline travels and the actual number of positive incident cases of influenza B in the entire world, implying that the growing incidence of influenza B is attributed to increased human mobility.

  2. Military Expenditure, Threats, and Growth

    OpenAIRE

    Aizenman, Joshua; Glick, Reuven

    2003-01-01

    This paper clarifies one of the puzzling results of the economic growth literature: the impact of military expenditure is frequently found to be non-significant or negative, yet most countries spend a large fraction of their GDP on defense and the military. We start by empirical evaluation of the non- linear interactions between military expenditure, external threats, corruption, and other relevant controls. While growth falls with higher levels of military spending, given the values of the o...

  3. Military Strategy Of India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. S. Zaitsev

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The article analyzes the evolution of military strategy of the Republic of India and key factors that influences its development. New Delhi keeps an eye on the balance of power in South Asia to create favorable conditions for its economic and social development, yet the remaining threats and new challenges still undermine the security and stability in India. The ambitions of China aspiring to power in Asia-Pacific region, combined with its immense military build-up and territorial disputes, cause disturbance in New Delhi. The remaining tensions between India and Pakistan also cause often border skirmishes and medium-scale conflicts. Close relations between China and Pakistan, labeled as “all-weather friendship”, are a source of major concern for India. The fact that both Beijing and Islamabad wield nuclear weapons means that without effective mechanisms of nuclear deterrence any military conflict may turn into a full-scale nuclear war. Terrorist activities and insurgency in the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir and in the North-Eastern regions of the country, along with maritime piracy and illicit drug trafficking contribute to the complicated nature of the challenges to the Indian security. Indian military strategy is considered as a combination of the army doctrine, maritime doctrine and nuclear doctrine. The Indian political and military leadership wants to meet the challenges of changing geopolitical environment and thus continuously adapts its strategy. However, there is still a gap between theory and practice: Indian armed forces lack the capacity to implement the declared goals because of bulky bureaucratic system, outdated military equipment and insufficient level of command and control. The government needs to mobilize political will and administrative resources to upgrade its defense sector to counter its security threats and challenges.

  4. Autonomous military robotics

    CERN Document Server

    Nath, Vishnu

    2014-01-01

    This SpringerBrief reveals the latest techniques in computer vision and machine learning on robots that are designed as accurate and efficient military snipers. Militaries around the world are investigating this technology to simplify the time, cost and safety measures necessary for training human snipers. These robots are developed by combining crucial aspects of computer science research areas including image processing, robotic kinematics and learning algorithms. The authors explain how a new humanoid robot, the iCub, uses high-speed cameras and computer vision algorithms to track the objec

  5. Syria’s Military Capabilities and Options for Military Intervention

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pradhan-Blach, Flemming

    2012-01-01

    This background paper does not endorse any military action towards Syria. The document does not reflect or express any official Danish policy or a position of the University of Copenhagen or the Centre for Military Studies. The purpose of this paper is to briefly describe military capabilities...... and options in order to provide a factual background for the ongoing discussion on possible military intervention in the Syrian conflict and Denmark’s possible participation in such an intervention. The paper is primarily based on the Military Balance published by the International Institute for Strategic...

  6. Epidemic dynamics and endemic states in complex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pastor-Satorras, Romualdo; Vespignani, Alessandro

    2001-06-01

    We study by analytical methods and large scale simulations a dynamical model for the spreading of epidemics in complex networks. In networks with exponentially bounded connectivity we recover the usual epidemic behavior with a threshold defining a critical point below that the infection prevalence is null. On the contrary, on a wide range of scale-free networks we observe the absence of an epidemic threshold and its associated critical behavior. This implies that scale-free networks are prone to the spreading and the persistence of infections whatever spreading rate the epidemic agents might possess. These results can help understanding computer virus epidemics and other spreading phenomena on communication and social networks.

  7. Epidemic dynamics and endemic states in complex networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pastor-Satorras, Romualdo; Vespignani, Alessandro

    2001-01-01

    We study by analytical methods and large scale simulations a dynamical model for the spreading of epidemics in complex networks. In networks with exponentially bounded connectivity we recover the usual epidemic behavior with a threshold defining a critical point below that the infection prevalence is null. On the contrary, on a wide range of scale-free networks we observe the absence of an epidemic threshold and its associated critical behavior. This implies that scale-free networks are prone to the spreading and the persistence of infections whatever spreading rate the epidemic agents might possess. These results can help understanding computer virus epidemics and other spreading phenomena on communication and social networks

  8. Toward a generalized theory of epidemic awareness in social networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Qingchu; Zhu, Wenfang

    We discuss the dynamics of a susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model with local awareness in networks. Individual awareness to the infectious disease is characterized by a general function of epidemic information in its neighborhood. We build a high-accuracy approximate equation governing the spreading dynamics and derive an approximate epidemic threshold above which the epidemic spreads over the whole network. Our results extend the previous work and show that the epidemic threshold is dependent on the awareness function in terms of one infectious neighbor. Interestingly, when a pow-law awareness function is chosen, the epidemic threshold can emerge in infinite networks.

  9. The Transgender Military Experience

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michelle Dietert

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Although there have been studies that focus on the experiences of the gay and lesbian population serving in the United States military, few have focused on the experience of active duty transgender service members. Transgender individuals transgress the binary conception of gender by deviating from societal gender norms associated with assigned sex at birth. The Department of Defense has set policies and standards that reflect a binary conception of gender, with a focus on conformity. We argue that able-bodied gender variant service personnel are just as capable of serving their country as anyone else. Because of the repercussions associated with active duty transgender military personnel, our sample is small and involves nine clandestine service members and two international service members who wanted to share their stories from a different perspective. Snowball sampling was aimed at finding current active duty and reserve transgender service members. Using a combination of telephone interviews and questionnaires, data were collected from active duty transgender service personnel throughout the United States and two from international militaries that allow transgender people to serve. Data collection focused on the overall experiences of the participants along with questions regarding workplace discrimination, suggestions for policy changes, and their views about the overturn of Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell. Our findings add to a growing source of information about the transgender military experience in the U.S. armed forces and the importance of overturning discriminatory workplace policies that negatively impact transgender service members.

  10. THE MILITARY GLIDER REVISITED

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    briefest life span of any major military equipment type - spanning not ... that country. The disadvantages of this to PLAN ... increasingly hamper the employment of heli- .... time, both attack and medium helicopters could .... balance out his armoured superiority and to im- ... derable flexibility to our operations and enhance.

  11. About Military Sexual Trauma

    Medline Plus

    Full Text Available ... Get YouTube Red. Working... Not now Try it free Find out why Close About Military Sexual Trauma ... MST. http://www.mentalhealth.va.gov/msthom... Category Education License Standard YouTube License Show more Show less ...

  12. Soviet Union, Military Affairs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1987-06-05

    supremacy in the world. Like the foreign policies of the USSR and the USA , their military doctrines reveal the objectives they pursue: the Soviet... Gastronom or a Detskiy Mir. In- stallation of the equipment was delayed a long time as a result. The district finance service therefore did not consider

  13. About Military Sexual Trauma

    Medline Plus

    Full Text Available ... starting stop Loading... Watch Queue Queue __count__/__total__ It’s YouTube. Uninterrupted. Loading... Want music and videos with ... ads? Get YouTube Red. Working... Not now Try it free Find out why Close About Military Sexual ...

  14. Resilience among Military Youth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Easterbrooks, M. Ann; Ginsburg, Kenneth; Lerner, Richard M.

    2013-01-01

    In this article, the authors present their approach to understanding resilience among military connected young people, and they discuss some of the gaps in their knowledge. They begin by defining resilience, and then present a theoretical model of how young people demonstrate resilient functioning. Next they consider some of the research on…

  15. Military radiation protection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harrison, J.

    1993-01-01

    The Ministry of Defence and the military in particular have a very strong commitment to radiation protection of personnel in war and peace. MOD endeavours to do better all the time because it is essential that the armed forces have the confidence to fulfil their role and this is best achieved by providing them with the best possible protection irrespective of the hazard. (author)

  16. The Military Instructor's Handbook

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sjøstedt, Peter; Grønlund, Thomas

    The Military Instructor's handbook was written for the basic professional training of instructors in the danish defence. The book describes the work of instructors and their areas of responsibility, and it offers guidance and direction on how to plan, conduct and evaluate learning activities...

  17. Slowing Military Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-10-01

    existential fear of one’s superpower rival. Nor was the Cold War the only arms race in history: naval rivalry in the late 19th and early 20th centuries...Military Review, July-August 2006; Norman Solomon, “The Bogus Blurring of Terrorism and Insurgency in Iraq,” The Humanist , Vol. 66, No. 2, March-April

  18. About Military Sexual Trauma

    Medline Plus

    Full Text Available ... count__/__total__ Find out why Close About Military Sexual Trauma Veterans Health Administration Loading... Unsubscribe from Veterans ... MST. http://www.mentalhealth.va.gov/msthom... Category Education License Standard YouTube License Show more Show less ...

  19. Epidemic Spreading with Heterogeneous Awareness on Human Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yanling Lu

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The spontaneous awareness behavioral responses of individuals have a significant impact on epidemic spreading. In this paper, a modified Susceptible-Alert-Infected-Susceptible (SAIS epidemic model with heterogeneous awareness is presented to study epidemic spreading in human networks and the impact of heterogeneous awareness on epidemic dynamics. In this model, when susceptible individuals receive awareness information about the presence of epidemic from their infected neighbor nodes, they will become alert individuals with heterogeneous awareness rate. Theoretical analysis and numerical simulations show that heterogeneous awareness can enhance the epidemic threshold with certain conditions and reduce the scale of virus outbreaks compared with no awareness. What is more, for the same awareness parameter, it also shows that heterogeneous awareness can slow effectively the spreading size and does not delay the arrival time of epidemic spreading peak compared with homogeneous awareness.

  20. Extinction times of epidemic outbreaks in networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holme, Petter

    2013-01-01

    In the Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model of disease spreading, the time to extinction of the epidemics happens at an intermediate value of the per-contact transmission probability. Too contagious infections burn out fast in the population. Infections that are not contagious enough die out before they spread to a large fraction of people. We characterize how the maximal extinction time in SIR simulations on networks depend on the network structure. For example we find that the average distances in isolated components, weighted by the component size, is a good predictor of the maximal time to extinction. Furthermore, the transmission probability giving the longest outbreaks is larger than, but otherwise seemingly independent of, the epidemic threshold.

  1. Epidemic extinction paths in complex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hindes, Jason; Schwartz, Ira B.

    2017-05-01

    We study the extinction of long-lived epidemics on finite complex networks induced by intrinsic noise. Applying analytical techniques to the stochastic susceptible-infected-susceptible model, we predict the distribution of large fluctuations, the most probable or optimal path through a network that leads to a disease-free state from an endemic state, and the average extinction time in general configurations. Our predictions agree with Monte Carlo simulations on several networks, including synthetic weighted and degree-distributed networks with degree correlations, and an empirical high school contact network. In addition, our approach quantifies characteristic scaling patterns for the optimal path and distribution of large fluctuations, both near and away from the epidemic threshold, in networks with heterogeneous eigenvector centrality and degree distributions.

  2. Spread of epidemic disease on networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newman, M. E.

    2002-07-01

    The study of social networks, and in particular the spread of disease on networks, has attracted considerable recent attention in the physics community. In this paper, we show that a large class of standard epidemiological models, the so-called susceptible/infective/removed (SIR) models can be solved exactly on a wide variety of networks. In addition to the standard but unrealistic case of fixed infectiveness time and fixed and uncorrelated probability of transmission between all pairs of individuals, we solve cases in which times and probabilities are nonuniform and correlated. We also consider one simple case of an epidemic in a structured population, that of a sexually transmitted disease in a population divided into men and women. We confirm the correctness of our exact solutions with numerical simulations of SIR epidemics on networks.

  3. Ciguatera fish poisoning. A southern California epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barton, E D; Tanner, P; Turchen, S G; Tunget, C L; Manoguerra, A; Clark, R F

    1995-01-01

    Ciguatera fish poisoning results from the bioconcentration of a variety of toxins produced by marine dinoflagellates. Signs and symptoms vary widely, but it usually presents as gastrointestinal and neurologic complaints beginning shortly after the ingestion of fish containing the toxins. Symptoms may persist for months and sometimes even years. Although cases have been reported throughout the United States, epidemics are most common along tropical and subtropical coasts and usually involve the ingestion of large carnivorous fish. We review the literature and report the first epidemic of 25 cases of ciguatera fish poisoning presenting to area hospitals in Southern California that were successfully tracked by the Department of Health Services and isolated to fish caught off the coast of Baja California, Mexico. Images Figure 1. PMID:7667980

  4. A break in the obesity epidemic?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Visscher, T L S; Heitmann, B L; Rissanen, A

    2015-01-01

    Recent epidemiologic papers are presenting prevalence data suggesting breaks and decreases in obesity rates. However, before concluding that the obesity epidemic is not increasing anymore, the validity of the presented data should be discussed more thoroughly. We had a closer look into the litera......, focusing on trends in waist circumference rather than BMI leads to a less optimistic conclusion: the public health problem of obesity is still increasing.International Journal of Obesity advance online publication, 22 July 2014; doi:10.1038/ijo.2014.98....... into the literature presented in recent reviews to address the major potential biases and distortions, and to develop insights about how to interpret the presented suggestions for a potential break in the obesity epidemic. Decreasing participation rates, the use of reported rather than measured data and small sample...

  5. Eight challenges for network epidemic models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lorenzo Pellis

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Networks offer a fertile framework for studying the spread of infection in human and animal populations. However, owing to the inherent high-dimensionality of networks themselves, modelling transmission through networks is mathematically and computationally challenging. Even the simplest network epidemic models present unanswered questions. Attempts to improve the practical usefulness of network models by including realistic features of contact networks and of host–pathogen biology (e.g. waning immunity have made some progress, but robust analytical results remain scarce. A more general theory is needed to understand the impact of network structure on the dynamics and control of infection. Here we identify a set of challenges that provide scope for active research in the field of network epidemic models.

  6. Computational algebraic geometry of epidemic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodríguez Vega, Martín.

    2014-06-01

    Computational Algebraic Geometry is applied to the analysis of various epidemic models for Schistosomiasis and Dengue, both, for the case without control measures and for the case where control measures are applied. The models were analyzed using the mathematical software Maple. Explicitly the analysis is performed using Groebner basis, Hilbert dimension and Hilbert polynomials. These computational tools are included automatically in Maple. Each of these models is represented by a system of ordinary differential equations, and for each model the basic reproductive number (R0) is calculated. The effects of the control measures are observed by the changes in the algebraic structure of R0, the changes in Groebner basis, the changes in Hilbert dimension, and the changes in Hilbert polynomials. It is hoped that the results obtained in this paper become of importance for designing control measures against the epidemic diseases described. For future researches it is proposed the use of algebraic epidemiology to analyze models for airborne and waterborne diseases.

  7. Extinction times of epidemic outbreaks in networks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petter Holme

    Full Text Available In the Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR model of disease spreading, the time to extinction of the epidemics happens at an intermediate value of the per-contact transmission probability. Too contagious infections burn out fast in the population. Infections that are not contagious enough die out before they spread to a large fraction of people. We characterize how the maximal extinction time in SIR simulations on networks depend on the network structure. For example we find that the average distances in isolated components, weighted by the component size, is a good predictor of the maximal time to extinction. Furthermore, the transmission probability giving the longest outbreaks is larger than, but otherwise seemingly independent of, the epidemic threshold.

  8. Emergence of epidemics in rapidly varying networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kohar, Vivek; Sinha, Sudeshna

    2013-01-01

    We describe a simple model mimicking disease spreading on a network with dynamically varying connections, and investigate the dynamical consequences of switching links in the network. Our central observation is that the disease cycles get more synchronized, indicating the onset of epidemics, as the underlying network changes more rapidly. This behavior is found for periodically switched links, as well as links that switch randomly in time. We find that the influence of changing links is more pronounced in networks where the nodes have lower degree, and the disease cycle has a longer infective stage. Further, when the switching of links is periodic we observe finer dynamical features, such as beating patterns in the emergent oscillations and resonant enhancement of synchronization, arising from the interplay between the time-scales of the connectivity changes and that of the epidemic outbreaks

  9. [The depression epidemic does not exist].

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Feltz-Cornelis, Christina M

    2009-01-01

    There has been much discussion in the media about the question of the existence of a depression epidemic. This leads on to the questions of whether the social and economic approaches are adequate, and what the alternatives are. The concept of the disease 'depression' can be defined using a medical model, or from a patient's or a societal perspective. From a medical perspective, indeed a depression epidemic has ensued from the increased prosperity and the associated decompression of the mortality rate. Society responded with preventative measures and policies aimed at improving functioning in the workplace. However, patients with a major depressive disorder (MDD) who are eligible for treatment are often not motivated to take it up, or are undertreated. Research is necessary in order to explore what patients think about the identification and treatment of depression. The confusion regarding the concept of depression found in the media, needs to be cleared.

  10. New Approaches to the Methamphetamine Epidemic

    OpenAIRE

    Zusman, Mara B.

    2004-01-01

    Methamphetamine abuse has become an epidemic in the United States. As methamphetamine becomes increasingly available, more and more people are trying – and becoming addicted to – this potent drug. But although methamphetamine is made using over-the-counter (OTC) drugs containing pseudoephedrine, shifting OTC drugs containing pseudoephedrine to prescription status is not the solution to the methamphetamine crisis. Rather, society must adopt a comprehensive...

  11. The 1982 epidemic--roller skating injuries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bunker, T. D.

    1983-01-01

    A series of 100 roller skating injuries is presented. Roller skating injuries have been occurring at a higher rate than the previously reported skateboarding epidemic of 1977. The severity of injury has been lower, 32% fractures and dislocations occurring whilst roller skating, compared to 60% whilst skateboarding. In particular a striking reduction is seen in ankle fractures. Fifty questionnaires detailing method of injury were analysed. Images p205-a Fig. 1 Fig. 2 PMID:6652406

  12. Impact of the infectious period on epidemics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilkinson, Robert R.; Sharkey, Kieran J.

    2018-05-01

    The duration of the infectious period is a crucial determinant of the ability of an infectious disease to spread. We consider an epidemic model that is network based and non-Markovian, containing classic Kermack-McKendrick, pairwise, message passing, and spatial models as special cases. For this model, we prove a monotonic relationship between the variability of the infectious period (with fixed mean) and the probability that the infection will reach any given subset of the population by any given time. For certain families of distributions, this result implies that epidemic severity is decreasing with respect to the variance of the infectious period. The striking importance of this relationship is demonstrated numerically. We then prove, with a fixed basic reproductive ratio (R0), a monotonic relationship between the variability of the posterior transmission probability (which is a function of the infectious period) and the probability that the infection will reach any given subset of the population by any given time. Thus again, even when R0 is fixed, variability of the infectious period tends to dampen the epidemic. Numerical results illustrate this but indicate the relationship is weaker. We then show how our results apply to message passing, pairwise, and Kermack-McKendrick epidemic models, even when they are not exactly consistent with the stochastic dynamics. For Poissonian contact processes, and arbitrarily distributed infectious periods, we demonstrate how systems of delay differential equations and ordinary differential equations can provide upper and lower bounds, respectively, for the probability that any given individual has been infected by any given time.

  13. Dynamics of epidemics outbreaks in heterogeneous populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brockmann, Dirk; Morales-Gallardo, Alejandro; Geisel, Theo

    2007-03-01

    The dynamics of epidemic outbreaks have been investigated in recent years within two alternative theoretical paradigms. The key parameter of mean field type of models such as the SIR model is the basic reproduction number R0, the average number of secondary infections caused by one infected individual. Recently, scale free network models have received much attention as they account for the high variability in the number of social contacts involved. These models predict an infinite basic reproduction number in some cases. We investigate the impact of heterogeneities of contact rates in a generic model for epidemic outbreaks. We present a system in which both the time periods of being infectious and the time periods between transmissions are Poissonian processes. The heterogeneities are introduced by means of strongly variable contact rates. In contrast to scale free network models we observe a finite basic reproduction number and, counterintuitively a smaller overall epidemic outbreak as compared to the homogeneous system. Our study thus reveals that heterogeneities in contact rates do not necessarily facilitate the spread to infectious disease but may well attenuate it.

  14. Connecting the obesity and the narcissism epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lemaitre, Bruno

    2016-10-01

    Obesity and metabolic syndromes are major threats to health in both developed and developing countries. This opinion article is a holistic attempt to understand the obesity epidemic, by connecting it to the widespread narcissism in society. The narcissism epidemic refers to an increased prevalence of status-striving individualism and a decreased sense of community, observed in Westerns populations and spreading worldwide. Based on social personality and evolutionary psychology approaches, I speculate that this rise of narcissism underlies a steep social hierarchy resulting in increase of social stress. This social stress markedly affects individuals who are sensitive to social hierarchy dominance due to their personality, yet are relegated at a lower social position. I speculate that over-eating is one major mechanism for coping with this stress, and discuss the possibility that visceral fat may constitute an adaptive behaviour to the lower social hierarchy position, which is perceived as unjust. Connecting the prevalence of obesity to the narcissism epidemic allows for a more thorough examination of factors, which contribute to obesity, which includes early difficult childhood experience, lower rank, and the overall competitive framework of the society. Copyright © 2016 The Author. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  15. Discrete stochastic analogs of Erlang epidemic models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Getz, Wayne M; Dougherty, Eric R

    2018-12-01

    Erlang differential equation models of epidemic processes provide more realistic disease-class transition dynamics from susceptible (S) to exposed (E) to infectious (I) and removed (R) categories than the ubiquitous SEIR model. The latter is itself is at one end of the spectrum of Erlang SE[Formula: see text]I[Formula: see text]R models with [Formula: see text] concatenated E compartments and [Formula: see text] concatenated I compartments. Discrete-time models, however, are computationally much simpler to simulate and fit to epidemic outbreak data than continuous-time differential equations, and are also much more readily extended to include demographic and other types of stochasticity. Here we formulate discrete-time deterministic analogs of the Erlang models, and their stochastic extension, based on a time-to-go distributional principle. Depending on which distributions are used (e.g. discretized Erlang, Gamma, Beta, or Uniform distributions), we demonstrate that our formulation represents both a discretization of Erlang epidemic models and generalizations thereof. We consider the challenges of fitting SE[Formula: see text]I[Formula: see text]R models and our discrete-time analog to data (the recent outbreak of Ebola in Liberia). We demonstrate that the latter performs much better than the former; although confining fits to strict SEIR formulations reduces the numerical challenges, but sacrifices best-fit likelihood scores by at least 7%.

  16. Epidemic risk from cholera introductions into Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Sean M; Shannon, Kerry L; Zelaya, Carla E; Azman, Andrew S; Lessler, Justin

    2014-02-21

    Stemming from the 2010 cholera outbreak in Haiti, cholera transmission in Hispaniola continues with over 40,000 cases in 2013. The presence of an ongoing cholera outbreak in the region poses substantial risks to countries throughout the Americas, particularly in areas with poor infrastructure. Since September 9, 2013 nearly 200 cholera cases have been reported in Mexico, as a result of introductions from Hispaniola or Cuba. There appear to have been multiple introductions into Mexico resulting in outbreaks of 2 to over 150 people. Using publicly available data, we attempt to estimate the reproductive number (R) of cholera in Mexico, and thereby assess the potential of continued introductions to establish a sustained epidemic. We estimate R for cholera in Mexico to be between 0.8 to 1.1, depending on the number of introductions, with the confidence intervals for the most plausible estimates crossing 1. These results suggest that the efficiency of cholera transmission in some regions of Mexico is near that necessary for a large epidemic. Intensive surveillance, evaluation of water and sanitation infrastructure, and planning for rapid response are warranted steps to avoid potential large epidemics in the region.

  17. Inferring epidemic network topology from surveillance data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiang Wan

    Full Text Available The transmission of infectious diseases can be affected by many or even hidden factors, making it difficult to accurately predict when and where outbreaks may emerge. One approach at the moment is to develop and deploy surveillance systems in an effort to detect outbreaks as timely as possible. This enables policy makers to modify and implement strategies for the control of the transmission. The accumulated surveillance data including temporal, spatial, clinical, and demographic information, can provide valuable information with which to infer the underlying epidemic networks. Such networks can be quite informative and insightful as they characterize how infectious diseases transmit from one location to another. The aim of this work is to develop a computational model that allows inferences to be made regarding epidemic network topology in heterogeneous populations. We apply our model on the surveillance data from the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in Hong Kong. The inferred epidemic network displays significant effect on the propagation of infectious diseases.

  18. Cyanobacteria facilitate parasite epidemics in Daphnia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tellenbach, C; Tardent, N; Pomati, F; Keller, B; Hairston, N G; Wolinska, J; Spaak, P

    2016-12-01

    The seasonal dominance of cyanobacteria in the phytoplankton community of lake ecosystems can have severe implications for higher trophic levels. For herbivorous zooplankton such as Daphnia, cyanobacteria have poor nutritional value and some species can produce toxins affecting zooplankton survival and reproduction. Here we present another, hitherto largely unexplored aspect of cyanobacteria, namely that they can increase Daphnia susceptibility to parasites. In a 12-yr monthly time-series analysis of the Daphnia community in Greifensee (Switzerland), we observed that cyanobacteria density correlated significantly with the epidemics of a common gut parasite of Daphnia, Caullerya mesnili, regardless of what cyanobacteria species was present or whether it was colonial or filamentous. The temperature from the previous month also affected the occurrence of Caullerya epidemics, either directly or indirectly by the promotion of cyanobacterial growth. A laboratory experiment confirmed that cyanobacteria increase the susceptibility of Daphnia to Caullerya, and suggested a possible involvement of cyanotoxins or other chemical traits of cyanobacteria in this process. These findings expand our understanding of the consequences of toxic cyanobacterial blooms for lake ecosystems and might be relevant for epidemics experienced by other aquatic species. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

  19. [Fight against epidemics: Austrian prisoners in Troyes].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hetzel, Géraldine

    2014-01-01

    The victories near Ulm and Elchingen, where the Napoleonic army took 60000 prisoners between 15th and 20th of October 1805, lead to the arrival at Troyes (county "Aube") of nearly 2000 Austrian soldiers to be held inside former monasteries among whose, mainly the Jacobinians casern where more than half of them stayed. At the beginning of 1806, the government sent the epidemics medical practitioner Dr Desgenettes on an inspection tour to control the state of health of the populations of places where foreign prisoners were held, which lead him through several counties of the North-eastern part of France, where he surveyed several diseases ranging from all kinds offevers up to dysentery, scabies or gangrenes. With the means of acid fumigations invented by the chemist Guyton Morveau from Dijon, the authorities took care of combating and preventing the epidemics in the caserns. As soon as October 1805, the epidemics medical practitioner Dr Pigeotte from Troyes wrote to the county governor his observations recommending a better diet, airing of the rooms and also calls to take some exercise. All these precepts showed an astonishing modernity.

  20. Impacts of clustering on interacting epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Bing; Cao, Lang; Suzuki, Hideyuki; Aihara, Kazuyuki

    2012-07-07

    Since community structures in real networks play a major role for the epidemic spread, we therefore explore two interacting diseases spreading in networks with community structures. As a network model with community structures, we propose a random clique network model composed of different orders of cliques. We further assume that each disease spreads only through one type of cliques; this assumption corresponds to the issue that two diseases spread inside communities and outside them. Considering the relationship between the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model and the bond percolation theory, we apply this theory to clique random networks under the assumption that the occupation probability is clique-type dependent, which is consistent with the observation that infection rates inside a community and outside it are different, and obtain a number of statistical properties for this model. Two interacting diseases that compete the same hosts are also investigated, which leads to a natural generalization of analyzing an arbitrary number of infectious diseases. For two-disease dynamics, the clustering effect is hypersensitive to the cohesiveness and concentration of cliques; this illustrates the impacts of clustering and the composition of subgraphs in networks on epidemic behavior. The analysis of coexistence/bistability regions provides significant insight into the relationship between the network structure and the potential epidemic prevalence. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Invited review: Epidemics on social networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. N. Kuperman

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Since its first formulations almost a century ago, mathematical models fordisease spreading contributed to understand, evaluate and control the epidemic processes.They promoted a dramatic change in how epidemiologists thought of the propagation of infectious diseases.In the last decade, when the traditional epidemiological models seemed to be exhausted, new types of models were developed.These new models incorporated concepts from graph theory to describe and model the underlying social structure.Many of these works merely produced a more detailed extension of the previous results, but some otherstriggered a completely new paradigm in the mathematical study of epidemic processes. In this review, we will introduce the basicconcepts of epidemiology, epidemic modeling and networks, to finally provide a brief description of the mostrelevant results in the field.Received: 6 April 2013, Accepted: 3 June 2013; Edited by: G. Mindlin; DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.4279/PIP.050003Cite as: M N Kuperman, Papers in Physics 5, 050003 (2013

  2. Epidemics in partially overlapped multiplex networks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Camila Buono

    Full Text Available Many real networks exhibit a layered structure in which links in each layer reflect the function of nodes on different environments. These multiple types of links are usually represented by a multiplex network in which each layer has a different topology. In real-world networks, however, not all nodes are present on every layer. To generate a more realistic scenario, we use a generalized multiplex network and assume that only a fraction [Formula: see text] of the nodes are shared by the layers. We develop a theoretical framework for a branching process to describe the spread of an epidemic on these partially overlapped multiplex networks. This allows us to obtain the fraction of infected individuals as a function of the effective probability that the disease will be transmitted [Formula: see text]. We also theoretically determine the dependence of the epidemic threshold on the fraction [Formula: see text] of shared nodes in a system composed of two layers. We find that in the limit of [Formula: see text] the threshold is dominated by the layer with the smaller isolated threshold. Although a system of two completely isolated networks is nearly indistinguishable from a system of two networks that share just a few nodes, we find that the presence of these few shared nodes causes the epidemic threshold of the isolated network with the lower propagating capacity to change discontinuously and to acquire the threshold of the other network.

  3. Mechanistic movement models to understand epidemic spread.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fofana, Abdou Moutalab; Hurford, Amy

    2017-05-05

    An overlooked aspect of disease ecology is considering how and why animals come into contact with one and other resulting in disease transmission. Mathematical models of disease spread frequently assume mass-action transmission, justified by stating that susceptible and infectious hosts mix readily, and foregoing any detailed description of host movement. Numerous recent studies have recorded, analysed and modelled animal movement. These movement models describe how animals move with respect to resources, conspecifics and previous movement directions and have been used to understand the conditions for the occurrence and the spread of infectious diseases when hosts perform a type of movement. Here, we summarize the effect of the different types of movement on the threshold conditions for disease spread. We identify gaps in the literature and suggest several promising directions for future research. The mechanistic inclusion of movement in epidemic models may be beneficial for the following two reasons. Firstly, the estimation of the transmission coefficient in an epidemic model is possible because animal movement data can be used to estimate the rate of contacts between conspecifics. Secondly, unsuccessful transmission events, where a susceptible host contacts an infectious host but does not become infected can be quantified. Following an outbreak, this enables disease ecologists to identify 'near misses' and to explore possible alternative epidemic outcomes given shifts in ecological or immunological parameters.This article is part of the themed issue 'Opening the black box: re-examining the ecology and evolution of parasite transmission'. © 2017 The Author(s).

  4. Epidemic optic neuropathy in Cuba. Eye findings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadun, A A; Martone, J F; Muci-Mendoza, R; Reyes, L; DuBois, L; Silva, J C; Roman, G; Caballero, B

    1994-05-01

    To characterize and establish a clinical definition of the optic neuropathy that appeared in epidemic form in Cuba in 1992 and 1993. At the invitation of the Cuban Ministry of Health, Havana, members of ORBIS International and the Pan American Health Organization, assembled teams that traveled to Cuba in May 1993. We were initially briefed by Cuban national experts in the areas of virology, nutrition, toxicology, ophthalmology, neurology, and public health. We then examined 20 patients on our own. Thirteen of these patients underwent a comprehensive neuro-ophthalmologic examination, including neurologic examination, ophthalmologic examination, visual fields, optic nerve function studies, contrast sensitivity studies, and funduscopy. We returned 4 months later to perform an additional 12 comprehensive neuro-ophthalmologic and follow-up examinations. Only seven of the 13 patients who were alleged to have the optic form of the epidemic and who were rigorously and systematically examined on the first visit demonstrated a bilateral optic neuropathy. These seven patients had several features that included decreased visual acuity, poor color vision, central scotomas, decreased contrast sensitivity, saccadic eye movements, and most prominent and distinctive of all, nerve fiber layer wedge defects of the papillomacular bundle. Our clinical definition was then implemented by the Cuban ophthalmologists and epidemiologists. On returning 4 months later, we found that all newly presented patients were correctly diagnosed to have the epidemic disease. With the new case definition and the application of a few simple psychophysical tests, the false-positive rate of diagnosis became much lower. After vitamin therapy, we reexamined the patients seen on our initial visit, and all showed marked improvement. The Cuban epidemic was characterized by an optic neuropathy with features that were similar to those of tobacco/alcohol amblyopia and Leber's optic atrophy. Recent political

  5. Genotypic and Functional Impact of HIV-1 Adaptation to Its Host Population during the North American Epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlson, Jonathan M.; Chan, Benjamin; Chopera, Denis R.; Brumme, Chanson J.; Markle, Tristan J.; Martin, Eric; Shahid, Aniqa; Anmole, Gursev; Mwimanzi, Philip; Nassab, Pauline; Penney, Kali A.; Rahman, Manal A.; Milloy, M.-J.; Schechter, Martin T.; Markowitz, Martin; Carrington, Mary; Walker, Bruce D.; Wagner, Theresa; Buchbinder, Susan; Fuchs, Jonathan; Koblin, Beryl; Mayer, Kenneth H.; Harrigan, P. Richard; Brockman, Mark A.; Poon, Art F. Y.; Brumme, Zabrina L.

    2014-01-01

    HLA-restricted immune escape mutations that persist following HIV transmission could gradually spread through the viral population, thereby compromising host antiviral immunity as the epidemic progresses. To assess the extent and phenotypic impact of this phenomenon in an immunogenetically diverse population, we genotypically and functionally compared linked HLA and HIV (Gag/Nef) sequences from 358 historic (1979–1989) and 382 modern (2000–2011) specimens from four key cities in the North American epidemic (New York, Boston, San Francisco, Vancouver). Inferred HIV phylogenies were star-like, with approximately two-fold greater mean pairwise distances in modern versus historic sequences. The reconstructed epidemic ancestral (founder) HIV sequence was essentially identical to the North American subtype B consensus. Consistent with gradual diversification of a “consensus-like” founder virus, the median “background” frequencies of individual HLA-associated polymorphisms in HIV (in individuals lacking the restricting HLA[s]) were ∼2-fold higher in modern versus historic HIV sequences, though these remained notably low overall (e.g. in Gag, medians were 3.7% in the 2000s versus 2.0% in the 1980s). HIV polymorphisms exhibiting the greatest relative spread were those restricted by protective HLAs. Despite these increases, when HIV sequences were analyzed as a whole, their total average burden of polymorphisms that were “pre-adapted” to the average host HLA profile was only ∼2% greater in modern versus historic eras. Furthermore, HLA-associated polymorphisms identified in historic HIV sequences were consistent with those detectable today, with none identified that could explain the few HIV codons where the inferred epidemic ancestor differed from the modern consensus. Results are therefore consistent with slow HIV adaptation to HLA, but at a rate unlikely to yield imminent negative implications for cellular immunity, at least in North America

  6. Influence of Media on Seasonal Influenza Epidemic Curves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saito, Satoshi; Saito, Norihiro; Itoga, Masamichi; Ozaki, Hiromi; Kimura, Toshiyuki; Okamura, Yuji; Murakami, Hiroshi; Kayaba, Hiroyuki

    2016-09-01

    Theoretical investigations predicting the epidemic curves of seasonal influenza have been demonstrated so far; however, there is little empirical research using ever accumulated epidemic curves. The effects of vaccine coverage and information distribution on influenza epidemics were evaluated. Four indices for epidemics (i.e., onset-peak duration, onset-end duration, ratio of the onset-peak duration to onset-end duration and steepness of epidemic curves) were defined, and the correlations between these indices and anti-flu drug prescription dose, vaccine coverage, the volume of media and search trend on influenza through internet were analyzed. Epidemiological data on seasonal influenza epidemics from 2002/2003 to 2013/2014 excluding 2009/2010 season were collected from National Institute of Infectious Diseases of Japan. The onset-peak duration and its ratio to onset-end duration correlated inversely with the volume of anti-flu drug prescription. Onset-peak duration correlated positively with media information volume on influenza. The steepness of the epidemic curve, and anti-flu drug prescription dose inversely correlated with the volume of media information. Pre-epidemic search trend and media volume on influenza correlated with the vaccine coverage in the season. Vaccine coverage had no strong effect on epidemic curve. Education through media has an effect on the epidemic curve of seasonal influenza. Copyright © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  7. Defining and detecting malaria epidemics in south-east Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    McKelvie William R

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background A lack of consensus on how to define malaria epidemics has impeded the evaluation of early detection systems. This study aimed to develop local definitions of malaria epidemics in a known malarious area of Iran, and to use that definition to evaluate the validity of several epidemic alert thresholds. Methods Epidemic definition variables generated from surveillance data were plotted against weekly malaria counts to assess which most accurately labelled aberrations. Various alert thresholds were then generated from weekly counts or log counts. Finally, the best epidemic definition was used to calculate and compare sensitivities, specificities, detection delays, and areas under ROC curves of the alert thresholds. Results The best epidemic definition used a minimum duration of four weeks and week-specific and overall smoothed geometric means plus 1.0 standard deviation. It defined 13 epidemics. A modified C-SUM alert of untransformed weekly counts using a threshold of mean + 0.25 SD had the highest combined sensitivity and specificity. Untransformed C-SUM alerts also had the highest area under the ROC curve. Conclusions Defining local malaria epidemics using objective criteria facilitated the evaluation of alert thresholds. This approach needs further study to refine epidemic definitions and prospectively evaluate epidemic alerts.

  8. Defining and detecting malaria epidemics in south-east Iran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKelvie, William R; Haghdoost, Ali Akbar; Raeisi, Ahmad

    2012-03-23

    A lack of consensus on how to define malaria epidemics has impeded the evaluation of early detection systems. This study aimed to develop local definitions of malaria epidemics in a known malarious area of Iran, and to use that definition to evaluate the validity of several epidemic alert thresholds. Epidemic definition variables generated from surveillance data were plotted against weekly malaria counts to assess which most accurately labelled aberrations. Various alert thresholds were then generated from weekly counts or log counts. Finally, the best epidemic definition was used to calculate and compare sensitivities, specificities, detection delays, and areas under ROC curves of the alert thresholds. The best epidemic definition used a minimum duration of four weeks and week-specific and overall smoothed geometric means plus 1.0 standard deviation. It defined 13 epidemics. A modified C-SUM alert of untransformed weekly counts using a threshold of mean+0.25 SD had the highest combined sensitivity and specificity. Untransformed C-SUM alerts also had the highest area under the ROC curve. Defining local malaria epidemics using objective criteria facilitated the evaluation of alert thresholds. This approach needs further study to refine epidemic definitions and prospectively evaluate epidemic alerts.

  9. An epidemic model for the future progression of the current Haiti cholera epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertuzzo, E.; Mari, L.; Righetto, L.; Casagrandi, R.; Gatto, M.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.; Rinaldo, A.

    2012-04-01

    As a major cholera epidemic progresses in Haiti, and the figures of the infection, up to December 2011, climb to 522,000 cases and 7,000 deaths, the development of general models to track and predict the evolution of the outbreak, so as to guide the allocation of medical supplies and staff, is gaining notable urgency. We propose here a spatially explicit epidemic model that accounts for the dynamics of susceptible and infected individuals as well as the redistribution of Vibrio cholera, the causative agent of the disease, among different human communities. In particular, we model two spreading pathways: the advection of pathogens through hydrologic connections and the dissemination due to human mobility described by means of a gravity-like model. To this end the country has been divided into hydrologic units based on drainage directions derived from a digital terrain model. Moreover the population of each unit has been estimated from census data downscaled to 1 km x 1 km resolution via remotely sensed geomorphological information (LandScan project). The model directly accounts for the role of rainfall patterns in driving the seasonality of cholera outbreaks. The two main outbreaks in fact occurred during the rainy seasons (October and May) when extensive floodings severely worsened the sanitation conditions and, in turn, raised the risk of infection. The model capability to reproduce the spatiotemporal features of the epidemic up to date grants robustness to the foreseen future development. To this end, we generate realistic scenario of future precipitation in order to forecast possible epidemic paths up to the end of the 2013. In this context, the duration of acquired immunity, a hotly debated topic in the scientific community, emerges as a controlling factor for progression of the epidemic in the near future. The framework presented here can straightforwardly be used to evaluate the effectiveness of alternative intervention strategies like mass vaccinations

  10. Shrinking the Civil-Military Divide: A Military Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-04-13

    behavior and rights, the values of the military are different and unique. Senior military officers highlight the importance of understanding the...Examples include on-base housing, shopping , schools, children’s sports leagues, and community and social events such as concerts, comedy shows, and movies... mall , a sporting event, or the movies provides a simple, 16 Skelton, “The Civil-Military Gap

  11. Unconventional Military Advising Mission Conducted by Conventional US Military Forces

    OpenAIRE

    Hajjar, Remi M.

    2016-01-01

    This article examines how and why many contemporary US mainstream military advisors—as compared to Special Forces advisors—often work from a position of disadvantage when conducting unconventional advising missions. Post-9/11 deployments to Iraq and Afghanistan have caused the US military to adapt to myriad complexities, including a renewed need for the widespread execution of the unconventional military advising mission by the Special Forces and conventional units. Although Special Forces ty...

  12. Military Suicide Research Consortium

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-10-01

    funded autism study – it covers autism spectrum disorders . He was not aware that DOD had this subject in their portfolio. He will be working with Dr...serotonin transporter gene and family history of depression? Journal of Affective Disorders , 77, 273-275. 8. Joiner, T., Sheldon, K., Williams, G...the military, impact unit morale, and take a large emotional toll on the involved friends, family , and commanders. As noted before with continued

  13. Military Psychology for Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Van Heerden, Adelaide

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available are unaware of the causes and symptoms of PTSD, and that awareness training at junior leadership levels could provide commanders with critical skills and insight to identify, manage, coordinate and facilitate such incidents before the situation gets... and group level is discussed in the context of contributing toward the end state of combat readiness. The critical contribution of leadership (p. 263), personal relationships both within the military and personal life as well as the construct of hardiness...

  14. Military Personnel Law Deskbook

    Science.gov (United States)

    2006-08-01

    Recreation Centers (AFRCs) and the Army Recreation Machine Program (ARMP), NAF Major Construction program, and NAF employee benefit programs... Bingo . • Bowling Centers (over 12 lanes). • Food, Beverage, and Entertainment Operations. • Golf Courses. • Military Clubs. • Others...nds. ach service has specific policies. (2) Funds must be used for the collective benefit of all unit members for off-duty recreational purposes

  15. Nanotechnology in Military Development

    OpenAIRE

    Andrus Pedai; Igor Astrov

    2014-01-01

    Nanotechnology is the new cyber, according to several major leaders in this field. Just as cyber is entrenched across global society now, nano is poised to be major capabilities enabler of the next decades. Expert members from the National Nanotechnology Initiative (in U.S.) representing government and science disciplines say nano has great significance for the military and the general public. It is predicted that after next 15 years nanotechnology will replace information technology as the m...

  16. Movies and the Military

    Science.gov (United States)

    1972-01-01

    by the hundreds. The most popular subjects were his tor ical dramas, comedies , simplistic versions of the classics, and sentimental domestic and...Germans and the making of a world "safe for democracy." All the war films, even the slapstick comedies , presented a simple view of the conflict-the...an exciting and romantic background for a love story or a musical. The value of military preparedness was implied strongly in these films which

  17. Converting Resources from Military to Non-military Uses

    OpenAIRE

    Jurgen Brauer; John Tepper Marlin

    1992-01-01

    As a proportion of gross national product, U.S. military spending has declined steadily since the mid-1980s. The end of the Cold War has given rise to calls for even more cuts in military spending. In early 1992, President George Bush proposed to reduce military spending by 3 percent per year, in real dollars, for the next five years. The Democratic leadership in the House of Representatives countered with a plan calling for substantially deeper cuts. Any substantial changes in military expen...

  18. An outbreak of leptospirosis among Peruvian military recruits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russell, Kevin L; Montiel Gonzalez, Marco A; Watts, Douglas M; Lagos-Figueroa, Roberto C; Chauca, Gloria; Ore, Marianela; Gonzalez, Jose E; Moron, Cecilia; Tesh, Robert B; Vinetz, Joseph M

    2003-07-01

    Acute undifferentiated febrile illnesses are common in tropical developing countries but are difficult to diagnose on clinical grounds alone. Leptospirosis is rarely diagnosed, despite evidence that sporadic cases and epidemics continue to occur worldwide. The purpose of this study was to diagnose an outbreak of acute undifferentiated febrile illness among Peruvian military recruits that developed after a training exercise in the high jungle rainforest of Peru. Of 193 military recruits, 78 developed an acute febrile illness with varied manifestations. Of these, 72 were found to have acute leptospirosis by a microscopic agglutination test (MAT). An enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay using Leptospira biflexa antigen was insensitive for the detection of anti-leptospiral IgM antibodies compared with the MAT (20 of 72, 28%). This outbreak of acute undifferentiated febrile illness among Peruvian military recruits was due to leptospirosis. High clinical suspicion, initiation of preventative measures, and performance of appropriate diagnostic testing is warranted in similar settings to identify, treat, and prevent leptospirosis.

  19. The Prevalence of Obesity in a Nigerian Military Population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ezekiel Taiwo Adebayo Obashina Ayodele Ogunbiyi Ishiaku Baba Abdulkareem Nurudeen Ayoola Hussain

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Background: Worldwide, obesity is increasing in prevalence, nearing epidemic proportions in the United States of America. Also, there are reports of rising prevalence in Africa. Obesity is an important aetiological factor for many non-communicable diseases. Recent anecdotal reports indicate that the prevalence of non-communicable diseases such as hypertension, type 2 diabetes mellitus and bronchial asthma is increasing among Nigerian military personnel; however, the rate of possible aetiological factors such as obesity is not known. Obesity can be evaluated using the body mass index (BMI, waist circumference and waist to height ratio (WHR. However, for epidemiological convenience and study within populations, the BMI is satisfactory. Methodology: A cross sectional study. Data of Nigerian military personnel�s annual medical examination conducted between January and March 2010 were retrieved to compute body mass index using World Health Organisation (WHO criteria. Results: 39.6% of personnel were overweight or obese. Most of these were aged between 30 and 39 years. While there were differences in the BMI of males and females, this did not reach statistical significance. Conclusion: To manage weight problems, focused health education, increased physical activity and nutritional advice are necessary. Modalities such as waist circumference should be added to annual medical examination of military personnel to improve the predictive value of the examination. [TAF Prev Med Bull 2011; 10(3.000: 313-318

  20. A Case Study of the United States Military’s Response to the 2014 Ebola Epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-06-10

    44 Leadership and Education...Doctrine, Organization, Training, Materiel, Leadership and education, Personnel, and Facilities ESC Expeditionary Sustainment Command JFC-UA Joint...cases were in 1976 in the Democratic Republic of Congo (then known as Zaire) and Southern Sudan. The two different Ebola species isolated from

  1. 14 CFR 61.73 - Military pilots or former military pilots: Special rules.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Military pilots or former military pilots... Ratings and Pilot Authorizations § 61.73 Military pilots or former military pilots: Special rules. (a... a disciplinary action involving aircraft operations, a U.S. military pilot or former military pilot...

  2. [Civilian-military coordination].

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Montravel, G

    2002-01-01

    Current humanitarian emergencies create complex, mutidimensional situations that stimulate simultaneous responses from a wide variety of sources including governments, non-governmental organizations (NGO), United Nations agencies, and private individuals. As a result, it has become essential to establish a coherent framework in which each actor can contribute promptly and effectively to the overall effort. This is the role of the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs. Regardless of the circumstances and level of coordination, cooperation and collaboration between humanitarian and military personnel, it is necessary to bear in mind their objectives. The purpose of humanitarian action is to reduce human suffering. The purpose of military intervention is to stop warfare. The author of this article will discuss the three major obstacles to civilian-military coordination (strategic, tactical, and operational). Operations cannot be conducted smoothly and differences cannot be ironed out without mutual respect between the two parties, an explicit definition of their respective duties and responsibilities, a clear understanding of their cultural differences, and the presence of an organization and facilities for coordination and arbitrage by a neutral referee.

  3. Military radiobiology: A perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Walker, R.I.; Conklin, J.J.

    1987-01-01

    Acute medical consequences affecting military personnel fall into two major classes: early events affecting performance and later more lethal events associated with single and combined injuries. If cells survive the radiation insult, they have the capability for repair. But the patient must survive fluid loss, infection, and bleeding defects until this can occur. Although no one can ever eliminate the incomprehensible destruction of human life associated with the use of nuclear weapons, significant medical advances can be achieved that will increase the performance and recovery of persons exposed to these weapons. Furthermore, these medical advances will go far toward improving the life and functioning of persons undergoing radiotherapy, trauma, accidental exposures, or a variety of other clinical situations. In the near future, the military battlefield will move into another dimension - space. Once outside the geomagnetic shield of the earth, military prsonnel will be exposed to a formidable array of new radiations. Among the new radiations will be high solar energy, solar particles and flares, and heavy nuclei from galactic cosmic arrays. Associated stresses will be microgravity, vibration, and isolation. To protect man in these new environments will truly challenge our ingenuity. This book looks at various medical consequences we face as a result of nuclear energy

  4. Dynamical Interplay between Awareness and Epidemic Spreading in Multiplex Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Granell, Clara; Gómez, Sergio; Arenas, Alex

    2013-09-01

    We present the analysis of the interrelation between two processes accounting for the spreading of an epidemic, and the information awareness to prevent its infection, on top of multiplex networks. This scenario is representative of an epidemic process spreading on a network of persistent real contacts, and a cyclic information awareness process diffusing in the network of virtual social contacts between the same individuals. The topology corresponds to a multiplex network where two diffusive processes are interacting affecting each other. The analysis using a microscopic Markov chain approach reveals the phase diagram of the incidence of the epidemics and allows us to capture the evolution of the epidemic threshold depending on the topological structure of the multiplex and the interrelation with the awareness process. Interestingly, the critical point for the onset of the epidemics has a critical value (metacritical point) defined by the awareness dynamics and the topology of the virtual network, from which the onset increases and the epidemics incidence decreases.

  5. Dynamical interplay between awareness and epidemic spreading in multiplex networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Granell, Clara; Gómez, Sergio; Arenas, Alex

    2013-09-20

    We present the analysis of the interrelation between two processes accounting for the spreading of an epidemic, and the information awareness to prevent its infection, on top of multiplex networks. This scenario is representative of an epidemic process spreading on a network of persistent real contacts, and a cyclic information awareness process diffusing in the network of virtual social contacts between the same individuals. The topology corresponds to a multiplex network where two diffusive processes are interacting affecting each other. The analysis using a microscopic Markov chain approach reveals the phase diagram of the incidence of the epidemics and allows us to capture the evolution of the epidemic threshold depending on the topological structure of the multiplex and the interrelation with the awareness process. Interestingly, the critical point for the onset of the epidemics has a critical value (metacritical point) defined by the awareness dynamics and the topology of the virtual network, from which the onset increases and the epidemics incidence decreases.

  6. Disease spreading with epidemic alert on small-world networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Han, Xiao-Pu

    2007-01-01

    Base on two-dimension small-world networks, a susceptible-infected model with epidemic alert is proposed in this Letter. In this model, if some parts of the network are alarmed as dangerous, a fraction of edges between the alarmed parts and others will be removed, and two cases of alerting rules that the degree and frequency of contacts kept unchanged are considered respectively. The numerical simulations show that the spreading velocity is reduced by the accurate and timely epidemic alert, and the more accurate and timely, the stronger the deceleration effect. This model indicates that to broadcast epidemic alert timely is helpful and necessary in the control of epidemic spreading, and in agreement with the general view of epidemic alert. This work is helpful to understand the effects of epidemic alert on disease spreading

  7. The spatial resolution of epidemic peaks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Harriet L Mills

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available The emergence of novel respiratory pathogens can challenge the capacity of key health care resources, such as intensive care units, that are constrained to serve only specific geographical populations. An ability to predict the magnitude and timing of peak incidence at the scale of a single large population would help to accurately assess the value of interventions designed to reduce that peak. However, current disease-dynamic theory does not provide a clear understanding of the relationship between: epidemic trajectories at the scale of interest (e.g. city; population mobility; and higher resolution spatial effects (e.g. transmission within small neighbourhoods. Here, we used a spatially-explicit stochastic meta-population model of arbitrary spatial resolution to determine the effect of resolution on model-derived epidemic trajectories. We simulated an influenza-like pathogen spreading across theoretical and actual population densities and varied our assumptions about mobility using Latin-Hypercube sampling. Even though, by design, cumulative attack rates were the same for all resolutions and mobilities, peak incidences were different. Clear thresholds existed for all tested populations, such that models with resolutions lower than the threshold substantially overestimated population-wide peak incidence. The effect of resolution was most important in populations which were of lower density and lower mobility. With the expectation of accurate spatial incidence datasets in the near future, our objective was to provide a framework for how to use these data correctly in a spatial meta-population model. Our results suggest that there is a fundamental spatial resolution for any pathogen-population pair. If underlying interactions between pathogens and spatially heterogeneous populations are represented at this resolution or higher, accurate predictions of peak incidence for city-scale epidemics are feasible.

  8. The Diffusion of Military Dictatorships

    OpenAIRE

    Raul Caruso; Ilaria Petrarca; Roberto Ricciuti

    2012-01-01

    We show the existence of a diffusion process of military dictatorships in Sub-Saharan Africa from 1972 through 2007, using panel data probit estimation and a Markov chain transition model. This process is shortly-lived, since we observe an overall trend that reduces the number of military regimes. We also find that Manufacturing share of GDP, Primary share of GDP positively affect the probability of military dictatorship, and Openness to trade, whereas the British colonial origin are negative...

  9. Russia - Nato. The military balance

    OpenAIRE

    Daugaard, Søren Bech; Jacobsen, Karen Vestergård; Aigro, Signe; Skarequist, Anne

    2010-01-01

    This project aims to explain how the military balancing of Russia against NATO can be explained from a neoclassical realist framework. The project consists in three analytical parts of respectively, 1: The military capabilities balance between NATO and Russia; 2: How the international system puts pressure on Russia; and 3: How the strategic culture of Russia can explain its balancing. This project aims to explain how the military balancing of Russia against NATO can be explained from a neo...

  10. Cultural Dimensions of Military Training

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-06-13

    to military, and to make them able to operate effectively in multicultural dimensions. This cultural impact forced the military doctrine to adapt...degree the research findings and conclusions. The bibliography reviewed for this thesis is available at the Combined Arms Research Library . Unfortunately...in terms of increased ability of understanding and operating in a different cultural or multicultural setting, led the military decision makers to

  11. Epidemics on adaptive networks with geometric constraints

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaw, Leah; Schwartz, Ira

    2008-03-01

    When a population is faced with an epidemic outbreak, individuals may modify their social behavior to avoid exposure to the disease. Recent work has considered models in which the contact network is rewired dynamically so that susceptibles avoid contact with infectives. We consider extensions in which the rewiring is subject to constraints that preserve key properties of the social network structure. Constraining to a fixed degree distribution destroys previously observed bistable behavior. The most effective rewiring strategy is found to depend on the spreading rate.

  12. Generalized epidemic process on modular networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chung, Kihong; Baek, Yongjoo; Kim, Daniel; Ha, Meesoon; Jeong, Hawoong

    2014-05-01

    Social reinforcement and modular structure are two salient features observed in the spreading of behavior through social contacts. In order to investigate the interplay between these two features, we study the generalized epidemic process on modular networks with equal-sized finite communities and adjustable modularity. Using the analytical approach originally applied to clique-based random networks, we show that the system exhibits a bond-percolation type continuous phase transition for weak social reinforcement, whereas a discontinuous phase transition occurs for sufficiently strong social reinforcement. Our findings are numerically verified using the finite-size scaling analysis and the crossings of the bimodality coefficient.

  13. CHEMICAL VERSUS SERUM TREATMENT OF EPIDEMIC MENINGITIS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flexner, S; Amoss, H L

    1916-05-01

    Claims of efficiency have been made at two widely separated periods for the chemical treatment of epidemic meningitis, in the first instance for lysol and in the second for protargol. The use of lysol was long since abandoned; the recommendation for protargol is based on a single series of cases, small in number. Because of the variable severity of epidemics of meningitis, small reliance can be placed on results of treatment limited in extent to small numbers of cases and to one locality. A more uniform and accurate measure of the value of a method of treatment is provided by animals infected experimentally with pathogenic cultures of meningococci. Young guinea pigs respond in a definite manner to intraperitoneal inoculation of virulent meningococci. Neither protargol nor lysol proved to have any curative action on the experimental infection thus produced in these animals. Monkeys respond in a characteristic manner to the inoculation of virulent cultures into the subarachnoid space. Protargol displayed no curative action on the experimental infection thus produced in these animals. On the contrary, both lysol and protargol exert antileukotactic and antiphagocytic effects, and are also potent protoplasmic poisons, and the leukocytes with which they come in contact are injured and made to degenerate. According to the extent to which these harmful properties are exerted, the chemicals promote the advance rather than restrain the progress of meningococcic infection. Recovery from meningococcic infection in man and animals is accomplished chiefly through the process of phagocytosis. The specific antiserum acts curatively by increasing the emigration of leukocytes, by promoting phagocytosis directly, and by agglutinating the meningococci, and also by neutralizing endotoxin. Any means which interfere with and reduce these essential processes retard or prevent recovery. Both lysol and protargol interfere with and diminish the emigration of leukocytes and the phagocytosis

  14. Two approaches to forecast Ebola synthetic epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Champredon, David; Li, Michael; Bolker, Benjamin M; Dushoff, Jonathan

    2018-03-01

    We use two modelling approaches to forecast synthetic Ebola epidemics in the context of the RAPIDD Ebola Forecasting Challenge. The first approach is a standard stochastic compartmental model that aims to forecast incidence, hospitalization and deaths among both the general population and health care workers. The second is a model based on the renewal equation with latent variables that forecasts incidence in the whole population only. We describe fitting and forecasting procedures for each model and discuss their advantages and drawbacks. We did not find that one model was consistently better in forecasting than the other. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Heterogeneous Epidemic Model for Assessing Data Dissemination in Opportunistic Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rozanova, Liudmila; Alekseev, Vadim; Temerev, Alexander

    2014-01-01

    that amount of data transferred between network nodes possesses a Pareto distribution, implying scale-free properties. In this context, more heterogeneity in susceptibility means the less severe epidemic progression, and, on the contrary, more heterogeneity in infectivity leads to more severe epidemics...... — assuming that the other parameter (either heterogeneity or susceptibility) stays fixed. The results are general enough to be useful for estimating the epidemic progression with no significant acquired immunity — in the cases where Pareto distribution holds....

  16. Hybrid epidemic spreading - from Internet worms to HIV infection

    OpenAIRE

    Zhang, C.

    2015-01-01

    Epidemic phenomena are ubiquitous, ranging from infectious diseases, computer viruses, to information dissemination. Epidemics have traditionally been studied as a single spreading process, either in a fully mixed population or on a network. Many epidemics, however, are hybrid, employing more than one spreading mechanism. For example, the Internet worm Conficker spreads locally targeting neighbouring computers in local networks as well as globally by randomly probing any computer on the Inter...

  17. Epidemic dynamics and endemic states in complex networks

    OpenAIRE

    Pastor-Satorras, Romualdo; Vespignani, Alessandro

    2001-01-01

    We study by analytical methods and large scale simulations a dynamical model for the spreading of epidemics in complex networks. In networks with exponentially bounded connectivity we recover the usual epidemic behavior with a threshold defining a critical point below which the infection prevalence is null. On the contrary, on a wide range of scale-free networks we observe the absence of an epidemic threshold and its associated critical behavior. This implies that scale-free networks are pron...

  18. Optimal Control of Interdependent Epidemics in Complex Networks

    OpenAIRE

    Chen, Juntao; Zhang, Rui; Zhu, Quanyan

    2017-01-01

    Optimal control of interdependent epidemics spreading over complex networks is a critical issue. We first establish a framework to capture the coupling between two epidemics, and then analyze the system's equilibrium states by categorizing them into three classes, and deriving their stability conditions. The designed control strategy globally optimizes the trade-off between the control cost and the severity of epidemics in the network. A gradient descent algorithm based on a fixed point itera...

  19. Conversion of Abbandoned Military Areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daiva Marcinkevičiūtė

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available The article analyses the situation of abandoned military sites, their value and significance of their conservation. It also reviews their impact on their environment and their potential in tourism, environmental, economic and social spheres. Further the positive experiences in military sites' conversion are studied. The importance of society's involvement in the conversions is discussed. The situation of XIX-XX age's military object's, the significance of their conservation and their potential in tourism market is separately analysed. The results of two researches are introduced, one of which inquires about the Lithuanian military objects' potential in tourism sphere, another one explores the possibilities of conversion. Article in Lithuanian

  20. Mainstreaming Military Compensation: Problems and Prospects

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    MacDonald, David

    1998-01-01

    Changes to the military retirement system in the 1980's and attention by law makers, military leadership, and service members to pay comparability between the private sector and the military indicate...

  1. Epidemics: Lessons from the past and current patterns of response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Paul

    2008-09-01

    Hippocrates gave the term 'epidemic' its medical meaning. From antiquity to modern times, the meaning of the word epidemic has continued to evolve. Over the centuries, researchers have reached an understanding of the varying aspects of epidemics and have tried to combat them. The role played by travel, trade, and human exchanges in the propagation of epidemic infectious diseases has been understood. In 1948, the World Health Organization was created and given the task of advancing ways of combating epidemics. An early warning system to combat epidemics has been implemented by the WHO. The Global Outbreak Alert and Response Network (GOARN) is collaboration between existing institutions and networks that pool their human and technical resources to fight outbreaks. Avian influenza constitutes currently the most deadly epidemic threat, with fears that it could rapidly reach pandemic proportions and put several thousands of lives in jeopardy. Thanks to the WHO's support, most of the world's countries have mobilised and implemented an 'Action Plan for Pandemic Influenza'. As a result, most outbreaks of the H5N1 avian flu virus have so far been speedily contained. Cases of dengue virus introduction in countries possessing every circumstance required for its epidemic spread provide another example pertinent to the prevention of epidemics caused by vector-borne pathogens.

  2. Abia State HIV epidemic and response: challenges and prospects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onyeonoro, Ugochukwu Uchenna; Emelumadu, Obiageli Fidelia; Nwamoh, Uche Ngozi; Ukegbu, Andrew Ugwunna; Okafor, Godwin Oc

    2014-11-13

    Since the first seroprevalence survey in 1999, the HIV prevalence in Abia State has increased from 1.8% to 7.3% in 2010. The state is currently experiencing a generalized epidemic, with most transmission occurring through heterosexual low-risk sex. Drivers of the epidemic include low knowledge of HIV prevention, low risk perception, predominantly male factor-driven risky sexual behavior, and low condom use. This study reviewed the state HIV epidemic trend in relation to response, sought to identify the gaps between the epidemic and response, and recommended measures to strengthen the state response.

  3. Epidemic spreading on random surfer networks with infected avoidance strategy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Feng Yun; Ding Li; Huang Yun-Han; Guan Zhi-Hong

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we study epidemic spreading on random surfer networks with infected avoidance (IA) strategy. In particular, we consider that susceptible individuals’ moving direction angles are affected by the current location information received from infected individuals through a directed information network. The model is mainly analyzed by discrete-time numerical simulations. The results indicate that the IA strategy can restrain epidemic spreading effectively. However, when long-distance jumps of individuals exist, the IA strategy’s effectiveness on restraining epidemic spreading is heavily reduced. Finally, it is found that the influence of the noises from information transferring process on epidemic spreading is indistinctive. (paper)

  4. Epidemic spreading in time-varying community networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ren, Guangming; Wang, Xingyuan

    2014-06-01

    The spreading processes of many infectious diseases have comparable time scale as the network evolution. Here, we present a simple networks model with time-varying community structure, and investigate susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic spreading processes in this model. By both theoretic analysis and numerical simulations, we show that the efficiency of epidemic spreading in this model depends intensively on the mobility rate q of the individuals among communities. We also find that there exists a mobility rate threshold qc. The epidemic will survive when q > qc and die when q epidemic spreading in complex networks with community structure.

  5. Untangling the Interplay between Epidemic Spread and Transmission Network Dynamics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christel Kamp

    Full Text Available The epidemic spread of infectious diseases is ubiquitous and often has a considerable impact on public health and economic wealth. The large variability in the spatio-temporal patterns of epidemics prohibits simple interventions and requires a detailed analysis of each epidemic with respect to its infectious agent and the corresponding routes of transmission. To facilitate this analysis, we introduce a mathematical framework which links epidemic patterns to the topology and dynamics of the underlying transmission network. The evolution, both in disease prevalence and transmission network topology, is derived from a closed set of partial differential equations for infections without allowing for recovery. The predictions are in excellent agreement with complementarily conducted agent-based simulations. The capacity of this new method is demonstrated in several case studies on HIV epidemics in synthetic populations: it allows us to monitor the evolution of contact behavior among healthy and infected individuals and the contributions of different disease stages to the spreading of the epidemic. This gives both direction to and a test bed for targeted intervention strategies for epidemic control. In conclusion, this mathematical framework provides a capable toolbox for the analysis of epidemics from first principles. This allows for fast, in silico modeling--and manipulation--of epidemics and is especially powerful if complemented with adequate empirical data for parameterization.

  6. Sexual and Gender-Based Violence Attitudes and Experiences among Nine Sub-Saharan African Militaries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nightingale, Vienna R; Tran, Bonnie R; Harbertson, Judith; Langa, Antonio; Grillo, Michael; Kalombo, Olivier; Thomas, Anne G

    2017-01-01

    While sexual and gender-based violence (SGBV) is recognized as an important factor driving the HIV epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa, attitudes toward and prevalence of SGBV within sub-Saharan African military populations are unknown. Data on SGBV were collected from military service members of nine sub-Saharan African militaries. Attitudes related to SGBV and characteristics of those who commit and experience SGBV are reported. Data for 8815 service members (8165 men and 650 women) aged 18 years or older who voluntarily participated in the Seroprevalence and Behavioral Epidemiology Risk Surveys from 2009 to 2014 were included in this secondary data analysis. Data were collected on demographics, HIV prevalence, SGBV attitudes, and experiences. Descriptive and bivariate statistical analyses were performed. 5% of men and 9% of women reported experiencing SGBV, and 6% of men reported they had ever committed SGBV. Men and women who had experienced SGBV were significantly more likely to agree with negative gender attitudes toward SGBV, and the majority of those who reported experiencing SGBV reported that SGBV was committed by someone outside of the military. This is the first study to examine SGBV in sub-Saharan military populations during periods of limited conflict. It provides evidence that SGBV is experienced by both male and female service members at rates not typically found in previous research examining SGBV in other military populations. A better understanding of SGBV in sub-Saharan military service members is necessary to ensure appropriate services and interventions are part of the military infrastructure. Copyright© Bentham Science Publishers; For any queries, please email at epub@benthamscience.org.

  7. Phenotypic and Genotypic Comparison of Epidemic and Non-Epidemic Strains of Pseudomonas aeruginosa from Individuals with Cystic Fibrosis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jessica Duong

    Full Text Available Epidemic strains of Pseudomonas aeruginosa have been found worldwide among the cystic fibrosis (CF patient population. Using pulse-field gel electrophoresis, the Prairie Epidemic Strain (PES has recently been found in one-third of patients attending the Calgary Adult CF Clinic in Canada. Using multi-locus sequence typing, PES isolates from unrelated patients were found to consistently have ST192. Though most patients acquired PES prior to enrolling in the clinic, some patients were observed to experience strain replacement upon transitioning to the clinic whereby local non-epidemic P. aeruginosa isolates were displaced by PES. Here we genotypically and phenotypically compared PES to other P. aeruginosa epidemic strains (OES found around the world as well as local non-epidemic CF P. aeruginosa isolates in order to characterize PES. Since some epidemic strains are associated with worse clinical outcomes, we assessed the pathogenic potential of PES to determine if these isolates are virulent, shared properties with OES, and if its phenotypic properties may offer a competitive advantage in displacing local non-epidemic isolates during strain replacement. As such, we conducted a comparative analysis using fourteen phenotypic traits, including virulence factor production, biofilm formation, planktonic growth, mucoidy, and antibiotic susceptibility to characterize PES, OES, and local non-epidemic isolates. We observed that PES and OES could be differentiated from local non-epidemic isolates based on biofilm growth with PES isolates being more mucoid. Pairwise comparisons indicated that PES produced significantly higher levels of proteases and formed better biofilms than OES but were more susceptible to antibiotic treatment. Amongst five patients experiencing strain replacement, we found that super-infecting PES produced lower levels of proteases and elastases but were more resistant to antibiotics compared to the displaced non-epidemic isolates. This

  8. The opioid overdose epidemic: opportunities for pharmacists

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wu LT

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Li-Tzy Wu,1–4 Udi E Ghitza,5 Anne L Burns,6 Paolo Mannelli,1 1Department of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences, 2Department of Medicine, 3Duke Clinical Research Institute, Duke University School of Medicine, 4Center for Child and Family Policy, Sanford School of Public Policy, Duke University, Durham, NC, 5Center for Clinical Trials Network, National Institute on Drug Abuse, Bethesda, MD, 6American Pharmacists Association, Washington, DC, USA The USA is experiencing an opioid overdose epidemic. It has been driven largely by prescription opioids and intensified by a surge of illicit opioids (e.g., heroin and fentanyl.1,2 Drug-involved overdose, mainly opioids (e.g., prescription opioids and heroin, is a leading cause of accidental death in the USA. The opioid overdose epidemic has been escalating consistently for over a decade.2 Every day, an estimated 91 Americans die from opioid-related overdose.3 Opioid overdose appears to have disproportionally affected men, adults aged 25–64 years, and non-Hispanic whites.2

  9. Resource allocation for epidemic control in metapopulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ndeffo Mbah, Martial L; Gilligan, Christopher A

    2011-01-01

    Deployment of limited resources is an issue of major importance for decision-making in crisis events. This is especially true for large-scale outbreaks of infectious diseases. Little is known when it comes to identifying the most efficient way of deploying scarce resources for control when disease outbreaks occur in different but interconnected regions. The policy maker is frequently faced with the challenge of optimizing efficiency (e.g. minimizing the burden of infection) while accounting for social equity (e.g. equal opportunity for infected individuals to access treatment). For a large range of diseases described by a simple SIRS model, we consider strategies that should be used to minimize the discounted number of infected individuals during the course of an epidemic. We show that when faced with the dilemma of choosing between socially equitable and purely efficient strategies, the choice of the control strategy should be informed by key measurable epidemiological factors such as the basic reproductive number and the efficiency of the treatment measure. Our model provides new insights for policy makers in the optimal deployment of limited resources for control in the event of epidemic outbreaks at the landscape scale.

  10. [The cholera epidemic in Latin America].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olsvik, O

    1992-05-30

    An outbreak of cholera started in Peru in January 1991 and spread through most Latin American countries within a year. This was the first known epidemic of cholera in America for more than a century. In 1991, 321,334 persons were reported to have cholera in Peru, 119,063 were hospitalized, and 2,906 died. Other countries like Ecuador, Colombia, Guatemala, Brazil, Mexico, Bolivia, Chile, El Salvador, Venezuela and Honduras were also affected, but these countries combined accounted for only 20% of the cases registered in Peru. In April 1992, all Latin American countries except Uruguay, Paraguay and French Guyana have reported cholera. The mortality rate for the epidemic in Latin America was only 1%, mainly owing to good oral rehydration treatment provided by Local health services and the Pan American Health Organization. The causative organism was Vibrio cholerae, serogroup O1, serotype Inaba (and Ogawa) of the El Tor biotype. Genetic characterization shows this strain to be unique, and the designation is reserved for the Latin American strain, distinguishing it from the other El Tor isolates from the 7th pandemic.

  11. Devastating epidemics in recent ages Greek populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kotsiou, Antonia; Michalaki, Vasiliki; Anagnostopoulou, Helen N

    2017-12-01

    In the recent Greek ages the most devastating epidemics were plague, smallpox, leprosy and cholera. In 1816 plague struck the Ionian and Aegean Islands, mainland Greece, Constantinople and Smyrna. The Venetians ruling the Ionian Islands effectively combated plague in contrast to the Ottomans ruling all other regions. In 1922, plague appeared in Patras refugees who were expelled by the Turks from Smyrna and Asia Minor. Inoculation against smallpox was first performed in Thessaly by the Greek women, and the Greek doctors Emmanouel Timonis (1713, Oxford) and Jakovos Pylarinos (1715, Venice) made relevant scientific publications. The first leper colony opened in Chios Island. In Crete, Spinalonga was transformed into a leper island, which following the Independence War against Turkish occupation and the unification of Crete with Greece in 1913, was classified as an International Leper Hospital. Cholera struck Greece in 1853-1854 brought by the French troops during the Crimean War, and again during the Balkan Wars (1912-13) when the Bulgarian troops brought cholera to northern Greece. Due to successive wars, medical assistance was not always available, so desperate people turned many times to religion through processions in honor of local saints, for their salvation in epidemics.

  12. Resource allocation for epidemic control in metapopulations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martial L Ndeffo Mbah

    Full Text Available Deployment of limited resources is an issue of major importance for decision-making in crisis events. This is especially true for large-scale outbreaks of infectious diseases. Little is known when it comes to identifying the most efficient way of deploying scarce resources for control when disease outbreaks occur in different but interconnected regions. The policy maker is frequently faced with the challenge of optimizing efficiency (e.g. minimizing the burden of infection while accounting for social equity (e.g. equal opportunity for infected individuals to access treatment. For a large range of diseases described by a simple SIRS model, we consider strategies that should be used to minimize the discounted number of infected individuals during the course of an epidemic. We show that when faced with the dilemma of choosing between socially equitable and purely efficient strategies, the choice of the control strategy should be informed by key measurable epidemiological factors such as the basic reproductive number and the efficiency of the treatment measure. Our model provides new insights for policy makers in the optimal deployment of limited resources for control in the event of epidemic outbreaks at the landscape scale.

  13. America's Opioid Epidemic: Supply and Demand Considerations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, David J; Schumacher, Mark A

    2017-11-01

    America is in the midst of an opioid epidemic characterized by aggressive prescribing practices, highly prevalent opioid misuse, and rising rates of prescription and illicit opioid overdose-related deaths. Medical and lay public sentiment have become more cautious with respect to prescription opioid use in the past few years, but a comprehensive strategy to reduce our reliance on prescription opioids is lacking. Addressing this epidemic through reductions in unnecessary access to these drugs while implementing measures to reduce demand will be important components of any comprehensive solution. Key supply-side measures include avoiding overprescribing, reducing diversion, and discouraging misuse through changes in drug formulations. Important demand-side measures center around educating patients and clinicians regarding the pitfalls of opioid overuse and methods to avoid unnecessary exposure to these drugs. Anesthesiologists, by virtue of their expertise in the use of these drugs and their position in guiding opioid use around the time of surgery, have important roles to play in reducing patient exposure to opioids and providing education about appropriate use. Aside from the many immediate steps that can be taken, clinical and basic research directed at understanding the interaction between pain and opioid misuse is critical to identifying the optimal use of these powerful pain relievers in clinical practice.

  14. Epidemic contact tracing via communication traces.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katayoun Farrahi

    Full Text Available Traditional contact tracing relies on knowledge of the interpersonal network of physical interactions, where contagious outbreaks propagate. However, due to privacy constraints and noisy data assimilation, this network is generally difficult to reconstruct accurately. Communication traces obtained by mobile phones are known to be good proxies for the physical interaction network, and they may provide a valuable tool for contact tracing. Motivated by this assumption, we propose a model for contact tracing, where an infection is spreading in the physical interpersonal network, which can never be fully recovered; and contact tracing is occurring in a communication network which acts as a proxy for the first. We apply this dual model to a dataset covering 72 students over a 9 month period, for which both the physical interactions as well as the mobile communication traces are known. Our results suggest that a wide range of contact tracing strategies may significantly reduce the final size of the epidemic, by mainly affecting its peak of incidence. However, we find that for low overlap between the face-to-face and communication interaction network, contact tracing is only efficient at the beginning of the outbreak, due to rapidly increasing costs as the epidemic evolves. Overall, contact tracing via mobile phone communication traces may be a viable option to arrest contagious outbreaks.

  15. Modelling the dynamics of nonendemic epidemics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ramani, A.; Grammaticos, B.; Satsuma, J.

    2009-01-01

    We present two models for an epidemic where the individuals are infective over a fixed period of time and which never becomes endemic i.e., no infective individuals remain after the epidemic has run its course. The first model is based on a delay-difference scheme. We show that, as a function of the delay (which corresponds to the period of infectiveness) the percentage of non-infected population varies over a wide range. We present also a variant of our model where the recovery rate follows a Poisson law and obtain a discrete version of the SIR model. We estimate the percentage of non-infected population in the two models, show that they lead to almost the same values and present an explanation of this fact. The second model is based on the assumption that the infection is spread by carriers. Under the hypothesis that the carriers are relatively long-lived, and that the number of the infected ones is a relatively small fraction of the total population of potential carriers, we show that the model reduces to the same version of the discrete SIR obtained by our first model.

  16. Modelling dengue epidemic spreading with human mobility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barmak, D. H.; Dorso, C. O.; Otero, M.

    2016-04-01

    We explored the effect of human mobility on the spatio-temporal dynamics of Dengue with a stochastic model that takes into account the epidemiological dynamics of the infected mosquitoes and humans, with different mobility patterns of the human population. We observed that human mobility strongly affects the spread of infection by increasing the final size and by changing the morphology of the epidemic outbreaks. When the spreading of the disease is driven only by mosquito dispersal (flight), a main central focus expands diffusively. On the contrary, when human mobility is taken into account, multiple foci appear throughout the evolution of the outbreaks. These secondary foci generated throughout the outbreaks could be of little importance according to their mass or size compared with the largest main focus. However, the coalescence of these foci with the main one generates an effect, through which the latter develops a size greater than the one obtained in the case driven only by mosquito dispersal. This increase in growth rate due to human mobility and the coalescence of the foci are particularly relevant in temperate cities such as the city of Buenos Aires, since they give more possibilities to the outbreak to grow before the arrival of the low-temperature season. The findings of this work indicate that human mobility could be the main driving force in the dynamics of vector epidemics.

  17. Epidemic contact tracing via communication traces.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farrahi, Katayoun; Emonet, Rémi; Cebrian, Manuel

    2014-01-01

    Traditional contact tracing relies on knowledge of the interpersonal network of physical interactions, where contagious outbreaks propagate. However, due to privacy constraints and noisy data assimilation, this network is generally difficult to reconstruct accurately. Communication traces obtained by mobile phones are known to be good proxies for the physical interaction network, and they may provide a valuable tool for contact tracing. Motivated by this assumption, we propose a model for contact tracing, where an infection is spreading in the physical interpersonal network, which can never be fully recovered; and contact tracing is occurring in a communication network which acts as a proxy for the first. We apply this dual model to a dataset covering 72 students over a 9 month period, for which both the physical interactions as well as the mobile communication traces are known. Our results suggest that a wide range of contact tracing strategies may significantly reduce the final size of the epidemic, by mainly affecting its peak of incidence. However, we find that for low overlap between the face-to-face and communication interaction network, contact tracing is only efficient at the beginning of the outbreak, due to rapidly increasing costs as the epidemic evolves. Overall, contact tracing via mobile phone communication traces may be a viable option to arrest contagious outbreaks.

  18. Colliding Epidemics and the Rise of Cryptococcosis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christina C. Chang

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Discovered more than 100 years ago as a human pathogen, the Cryptococcus neoformans–Cryptococcus gattii (C. neoformans–C. gattii complex has seen a large global resurgence in its association with clinical disease in the last 30 years. First isolated in fermenting peach juice, and identified as a human pathogen in 1894 in a patient with bone lesions, this environmental pathogen has now found niches in soil, trees, birds, and domestic pets. Cryptococcosis is well recognized as an opportunistic infection and was first noted to be associated with reticuloendothelial cancers in the 1950s. Since then, advances in transplant immunology, medical science and surgical techniques have led to increasing numbers of solid organ transplantations (SOT and hematological stem cell transplantations being performed, and the use of biological immunotherapeutics in increasingly high-risk and older individuals, have contributed to the further rise in cryptococcosis. Globally, however, the major driver for revivification of cryptococcosis is undoubtedly the HIV epidemic, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa where access to care and antiretroviral therapy remains limited and advanced immunodeficiency, poverty and malnutrition remains the norm. As a zoonotic disease, environmental outbreaks of both human and animal cryptococcosis have been reported, possibly driven by climate change. This is best exemplified by the resurgence of C. gattii infection in Vancouver Island, Canada, and the Pacific Northwest of the United States since 1999. Here we describe how the colliding epidemics of HIV, transplantation and immunologics, climate change and migration have contributed to the rise of cryptococcosis.

  19. JPRS Report, Soviet Union, Military Affairs

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    1988-01-01

    Partial Contents: Military Political Issues, Military Science, Warsaw Pact, Armed Forces, Air Forces, Air Defense Forces, Naval Forces, Strategic Rocket Forces, Civil Defense, Rear Services, Defense Industries, DOSAAF...

  20. Military Medical Care: Questions and Answers

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Jansen, Don J

    2009-01-01

    .... Known as Tricare, this system of military and private health care offers benefits to active duty personnel and other beneficiaries, including dependents of active duty personnel, military retirees...

  1. The Military Emergency Unit

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gonzalez Requena, J. M.

    2007-01-01

    One of the most justified and pressing demands that society makes of the State, requiring a fast, forceful and effective response, is that it guarantees the safety of people and their assets when a disaster seriously endangers them. At the proposal of the President of the Government, the Cabinet of Ministers, in its meeting held on October 7, 2005, agreed to create the Military Emergency Unit, known since the as the UME. Its mission is to intervene anywhere in the national territory when the President of the Government, or the Minister to whom he delegates, so decides in order to assure the safety and welfare of citizens in cases of serious risk, disaster, catastrophe or any other public need. The UME is organically incorporated into the Ministry of Defense and its actions may be supported with all the available human and material needs of the Armed Forces. Availability and effectiveness, with calmness and humility, have characterized the early actions of the Military Emergency Unit and are the guidelines for future action. The first steps of this military unit have focused on a clear goal: collaboration and participation in situations whose seriousness requires the coordination of different forces in order to immediately respond to them. The UME is the States tool to join forces and, with other administration and institutions, help to rapidly and effectively deal with emergencies. It has taken its first step and achieved the capacity specified in the UME Operations Order for 2007. The 150 men and women per battalion, plus the 80 in the Gando detachment, are on active duty and have sufficient material means to deploy, if necessary and when requested by the regions, town councils an other administrative bodies, to help in the extinction of forest fires. (Author)

  2. Tobacco Pricing in Military Stores: Views of Military Policy Leaders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Elizabeth A; Jahnke, Sara A; Poston, Walker S C; Malone, Ruth E; Haddock, Christopher K

    2016-10-01

    Higher tobacco taxes reduce tobacco use. On military installations, cigarettes and other tobacco products are sold tax-free, keeping prices artificially low. Pricing regulations in the military specify that tobacco should be within 5% of the local most competitive price, but prices still average almost 13% lower than those at local Walmarts. To gain insight into policy leaders' ideas and positions on military tobacco pricing, we interviewed members of the Department of Defense (DoD) Addictive Substances Misuse Advisory Committee and the Advisory Committee on Tobacco about tobacco pricing policies (n = 12). Participants frequently lacked specific knowledge of details of military pricing policy, and the impact higher prices might have on military tobacco use. Most participants thought tobacco should not be sold at military stores, but many also felt that this policy change was unlikely due to tobacco industry pressure, and DoD reliance on tobacco profits to support Morale, Welfare, and Recreation funds. Achieving a tobacco-free military will require changing pricing policy, but this study suggests that for effective implementation, military leadership must also understand and articulate more clearly the rationale for doing so. Previous work has found that adherence to military tobacco pricing policy is inconsistent at best. This study suggests that lack of knowledge about the policy and conflicting pressures resulting from the funding stream tobacco sales represent extend to high level military policy leaders. Without clearer information and direction, these leaders are unlikely to be able to establish and implement better tobacco pricing policy. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  3. The AMIGO Clinical Study: Attrition Rates Among Military Beneficiaries Undergoing Intensive Group Outpatient Pre-Diabetes Care

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-11-11

    inactivity and obesity have been observed to serve as catalysts to hasten disease progression. 1,2 A worldwide epidemic, the treatment of this...military treatment facility. The purpose of this study was to decrease the incidence of progression from pre-diabetes to diabetes by evaluating the...or lactating  Patients with untreated hypothyroidism or previously diagnosed Cushing’s syndrome  Patients currently taking metformin or

  4. Burns and military clothing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McLean, A D

    2001-02-01

    Burn injury is a ubiquitous threat in the military environment. The risks during combat are well recognised, but the handling of fuel, oil, munitions and other hot or flammable materials during peacetime deployment and training also imposes an inherent risk of accidental burn injury. Over the last hundred years, the burn threat in combat has ranged from nuclear weapons to small shoulder-launched missiles. Materials such as napalm and white phosphorus plainly present a risk of burn, but the threat extends to encompass personnel in vehicles attacked by anti-armour weapons, large missiles, fuel-air explosives and detonations/conflagrations on weapons platforms such as ships. Large numbers of burn casualties were caused at Pearl Harbor, in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, Vietnam, during the Arab/Israeli Wars and in the Falkland Islands conflict. The threat from burns is unlikely to diminish, indeed new developments in weapons seek to exploit the vulnerability of the serviceman and servicewoman to burns. Clothing can be a barrier to some types of burn--both inherently in the properties of the material, but also by trapping air between clothing layers. Conversely, ignition of the clothing may exacerbate a burn. There is hearsay that burnt clothing products within a wound may complicate the clinical management, or that materials that melt (thermoplastic materials) should not be worn if there is a burn threat. This paper explores the incidence of burn injury, the mechanisms of heat transfer to bare skin and skin covered by materials, and the published evidence for the complication of wound management by materials. Even light-weight combat clothing can offer significant protection to skin from short duration flash burns; the most vulnerable areas are the parts of the body not covered--face and hands. Multilayered combat clothing can offer significant protection for short periods from engulfment by flames; lightweight tropical wear with few layers offers little protection. Under

  5. Military Families: A Selected Bibliography

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-08-01

    CTC_depression_family_sheet.pdf U.S. Army War College. Basics from the Barracks: Military Etiquette and Protocol ; A Spouse’s Quick Reference to Its Unique Customs...http://youtu.be/zfTknLkDPTY U.S. Army War College. Military Family Program. Customs & Courtesies/ Protocol . Carlisle Barracks: U.S. Army War College

  6. Military Contractors - Too Much Dependence

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Hill, Nathan E

    2008-01-01

    .... There is undoubtedly a need for military contractors and there are numerous positive arguments in their favor. However, the negative arguments have not been highlighted enough recently and the scales are now out of balance. The intent of this research paper is to encourage the U.S. military to rebalance the scales and curb the over-reliance on contractors.

  7. The Death of Military Justice

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    Military Court of Appeals ruled in United States v. Beeker that “the use or possession of marihuana was service connected because the use or...possession . . . of marihuana and narcotics has a special military significance since their use has ‘disastrous effects on the health, morale and fitness

  8. Psychological Safety During Military Integrations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wermser, Frederik; Täuber, Susanne; Essens, Peter; Molleman, Henricus; Beeres, Robert; Bakx, Gwendolyn; de Waard, Erik; Rietjens, Sebastiaan

    Increased military cooperation between member states of the European Union is a political given. The Netherlands and Germany form a spearhead in this process by integrating entire military units (i.e., brigades, battalions, companies) into higher-order units of the respective other nation (i.e.,

  9. Military Implications of Global Warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1999-05-20

    U.S. environmental issues also have important global implications. This paper analyzes current U.S. Policy as it pertains to global warming and climate...for military involvement to reduce global warming . Global warming and other environmental issues are important to the U.S. military. As the United

  10. Teaching in Overseas Military Settings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKinney, Fred

    1980-01-01

    Reveals strengths and weaknesses encountered by a psychology teacher involved in the overseas graduate counseling program for Ball State University. Problems included lack of proper teaching and counseling facilities, long teaching hours, and civilian teachers' ignorance of military protocol. Advantages included helping military personnel obtain a…

  11. The Effectiveness of Military Operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    1987-01-01

    against the heart of the U.S. Pacific Fleet in 1941. Italy’s uneven naval buildup, stressing submarines and unemployed battleships, posed a particular...military, not to speak of a society which has yet to recover from its psychic wounds. How to arrange our American military institutions so that they

  12. The Importance of Military Cultural Competence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyer, Eric G; Writer, Brian W; Brim, William

    2016-03-01

    Military cultural competence has recently gained national attention. Experts have posited that limited outcomes in the treatment of posttraumatic stress disorder and depression in the military may be related to limited familiarity with the military. National surveys have indicated low military cultural competence among providers and limited educational efforts on military culture or pertinent military pathology in medical schools and residency training programs. Military families, with their own unique military cultural identity, have been identified as a population with increased risks associated with deployment. In response to these findings, several curricula regarding military culture have been established and widely distributed. Assessments of military cultural competence have also been developed. The clinical impact of enhanced cultural competence in general has thus far been limited. The military, however, with its highly prescribed cultural identity, may be a model culture for further study.

  13. The origin and emergence of an HIV-1 epidemic:

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bruhn, Christian Anders Wathne; Audelin, Anne M.; Helleberg, Marie

    2014-01-01

    To describe, at patient-level detail, the determining events and factors involved in the development of a country's HIV-1 epidemic.......To describe, at patient-level detail, the determining events and factors involved in the development of a country's HIV-1 epidemic....

  14. Stochastic analysis of epidemics on adaptive time varying networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kotnis, Bhushan; Kuri, Joy

    2013-06-01

    Many studies investigating the effect of human social connectivity structures (networks) and human behavioral adaptations on the spread of infectious diseases have assumed either a static connectivity structure or a network which adapts itself in response to the epidemic (adaptive networks). However, human social connections are inherently dynamic or time varying. Furthermore, the spread of many infectious diseases occur on a time scale comparable to the time scale of the evolving network structure. Here we aim to quantify the effect of human behavioral adaptations on the spread of asymptomatic infectious diseases on time varying networks. We perform a full stochastic analysis using a continuous time Markov chain approach for calculating the outbreak probability, mean epidemic duration, epidemic reemergence probability, etc. Additionally, we use mean-field theory for calculating epidemic thresholds. Theoretical predictions are verified using extensive simulations. Our studies have uncovered the existence of an “adaptive threshold,” i.e., when the ratio of susceptibility (or infectivity) rate to recovery rate is below the threshold value, adaptive behavior can prevent the epidemic. However, if it is above the threshold, no amount of behavioral adaptations can prevent the epidemic. Our analyses suggest that the interaction patterns of the infected population play a major role in sustaining the epidemic. Our results have implications on epidemic containment policies, as awareness campaigns and human behavioral responses can be effective only if the interaction levels of the infected populace are kept in check.

  15. The cholera epidemic in South Africa, 1980 - 1987 Epidemiological ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    During the cholera epidemic in South Africa, 1980-1987, 25251 cases of cholera were bacteriologically proven. The case-fatality rate was 1,4%. Outbreaks occurred in the summer rainfall season. Age-specific aUack rates followed the pattern typically found during the 'epidemic phase' of the disease in most years. The vast ...

  16. [The cholera epidemic of 1833 and mortality in Mexico City].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velasco, M D

    1992-01-01

    The author examines the impact of the 1833 cholera epidemic in Mexico City, Mexico, on social, economic, and political aspects of life in that city. She finds that some five percent of the population died during the epidemic, and enumerates them by age and sex.

  17. Unsynchronized influenza epidemics in two neighboring subtropical cities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiujuan Tang

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Objective: The aim of this study was to examine the synchrony of influenza epidemics between Hong Kong and Shenzhen, two neighboring subtropical cities in South China. Methods: Laboratory-confirmed influenza data for the period January 2006 to December 2016 were obtained from the Shenzhen Center for Disease Control and Prevention and the Department of Health in Hong Kong. The population data were retrieved from the 2011 population censuses. The weekly rates of laboratory-confirmed influenza cases were compared between Shenzhen and Hong Kong. Results: Unsynchronized influenza epidemics between Hong Kong and Shenzhen were frequently observed during the study period. Influenza A/H1N1 caused a more severe pandemic in Hong Kong in 2009, but the subsequent seasonal epidemics showed similar magnitudes in both cities. Two influenza A/H3N2 dominant epidemic waves were seen in Hong Kong in 2015, but these epidemics were very minor in Shenzhen. More influenza B epidemics occurred in Shenzhen than in Hong Kong. Conclusions: Influenza epidemics appeared to be unsynchronized between Hong Kong and Shenzhen most of the time. Given the close geographical locations of these two cities, this could be due to the strikingly different age structures of their populations. Keywords: Influenza epidemics, Synchrony, Shenzhen, Hong Kong

  18. The global spread of HIV-1 subtype B epidemic

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Magiorkinis, Gkikas; Angelis, Konstantinos; Mamais, Ioannis; Katzourakis, Aris; Hatzakis, Angelos; Albert, Jan; Lawyer, Glenn; Hamouda, Osamah; Struck, Daniel; Vercauteren, Jurgen; Wensing, Annemarie; Alexiev, Ivailo; Åsjö, Birgitta; Balotta, Claudia; Gomes, Perpétua; Camacho, Ricardo J.; Coughlan, Suzie; Griskevicius, Algirdas; Grossman, Zehava; Horban, Anders; Kostrikis, Leondios G.; Lepej, Snjezana J.; Liitsola, Kirsi; Linka, Marek; Nielsen, Claus; Otelea, Dan; Paredes, Roger; Poljak, Mario; Puchhammer-Stöckl, Elizabeth; Schmit, Jean Claude; Sönnerborg, Anders; Staneková, Danica; Stanojevic, Maja; Stylianou, Dora C.; Boucher, Charles A B; Nikolopoulos, Georgios; Vasylyeva, Tetyana; Friedman, Samuel R.; van de Vijver, David; Angarano, Gioacchino; Chaix, Marie Laure; de Luca, Andrea; Korn, Klaus; Loveday, Clive; Soriano, Vincent; Yerly, Sabine; Zazzi, Mauricio; Vandamme, Anne Mieke; Paraskevis, Dimitrios

    2016-01-01

    Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) was discovered in the early 1980s when the virus had already established a pandemic. For at least three decades the epidemic in the Western World has been dominated by subtype B infections, as part of a sub-epidemic that traveled from Africa through Haiti

  19. On The Travelling Wave Solution For An SEIR Epidemic Disease ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    We present the travelling wave solution for a Susceptible, Exposed, Infective and Removed (SEIR) epidemic disease model. For this SEIR model, the disease is driven by both the latent and infective class (the diffusion term is included in both classes). The population is closed. Keywords: Epidemic model, spatial spread, ...

  20. The fastest spreader in SIS epidemics on networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    He, Z.; Van Mieghem, P.F.A.

    2018-01-01

    Identifying the fastest spreaders in epidemics on a network helps to ensure an efficient spreading. By ranking the average spreading time for different spreaders, we show that the fastest spreader may change with the effective infection rate of a SIS epidemic process, which means that the

  1. Effects of local and global network connectivity on synergistic epidemics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broder-Rodgers, David; Pérez-Reche, Francisco J.; Taraskin, Sergei N.

    2015-12-01

    Epidemics in networks can be affected by cooperation in transmission of infection and also connectivity between nodes. An interplay between these two properties and their influence on epidemic spread are addressed in the paper. A particular type of cooperative effects (called synergy effects) is considered, where the transmission rate between a pair of nodes depends on the number of infected neighbors. The connectivity effects are studied by constructing networks of different topology, starting with lattices with only local connectivity and then with networks that have both local and global connectivity obtained by random bond-rewiring to nodes within a certain distance. The susceptible-infected-removed epidemics were found to exhibit several interesting effects: (i) for epidemics with strong constructive synergy spreading in networks with high local connectivity, the bond rewiring has a negative role in epidemic spread, i.e., it reduces invasion probability; (ii) in contrast, for epidemics with destructive or weak constructive synergy spreading on networks of arbitrary local connectivity, rewiring helps epidemics to spread; (iii) and, finally, rewiring always enhances the spread of epidemics, independent of synergy, if the local connectivity is low.

  2. The severe acute respiratory syndrome epidemic in mainland China dissected

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    W.-C. Cao (Wu-Chun); S.J. de Vlas (Sake); J.H. Richardus (Jan Hendrik)

    2011-01-01

    textabstractThis paper provides a review of a recently published series of studies that give a detailed and comprehensive documentation of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemic in mainland China, which severely struck the country in the spring of 2003. The epidemic spanned a large

  3. The global spread of HIV-1 subtype B epidemic

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    G. Magiorkinis (Gkikas); K. Angelis (Konstantinos); I. Mamais (Ioannis); Katzourakis, A. (Aris); A. Hatzakis (Angelos); J. Albert (Jan); Lawyer, G. (Glenn); O. Hamouda (Osamah); D. Struck (Daniel); J. Vercauteren (Jurgen); A. Wensing (Amj); I. Alexiev (Ivailo); B. Åsjö (Birgitta); C. Balotta (Claudia); Gomes, P. (Perpétua); R.J. Camacho (Ricardo Jorge); S. Coughlan (Suzie); A. Griskevicius (Algirdas); Z. Grossman (Zehava); Horban, A. (Anders); L.G. Kostrikis (Leondios); Lepej, S.J. (Snjezana J.); K. Liitsola (Kirsi); M. Linka (Marek); C. Nielsen; D. Otelea (Dan); R. Paredes (Roger); M. Poljak (Mario); E. Puchhammer-Stöckl (Elisabeth); J.C. Schmit; A. Sonnerborg (Anders); D. Stanekova (Danica); M. Stanojevic (Maja); Stylianou, D.C. (Dora C.); C.A.B. Boucher (Charles); Nikolopoulos, G. (Georgios); Vasylyeva, T. (Tetyana); Friedman, S.R. (Samuel R.); D.A.M.C. van de Vijver (David); G. Angarano (Guiseppe); M.L. Chaix (Marie Laure); A. de Luca (Andrea); K. Korn (Klaus); Loveday, C. (Clive); V. Soriano (Virtudes); S. Yerly (Sabine); M. Zazzi; A.M. Vandamme (Anne Mieke); D. Paraskevis (Dimitrios)

    2016-01-01

    textabstractHuman immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) was discovered in the early 1980s when the virus had already established a pandemic. For at least three decades the epidemic in the Western World has been dominated by subtype B infections, as part of a sub-epidemic that traveled from Africa

  4. Clinical Survey of Dengue Virus Circulation in the Republic of Djibouti between 2011 and 2014 Identifies Serotype 3 Epidemic and Recommends Clinical Diagnosis Guidelines for Resource Limited Settings.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erwan Le Gonidec

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Dengue virus is endemic globally, throughout tropical and sub-tropical regions. While the number of epidemics due to the four DENV serotypes is pronounced in East Africa, the total number of cases reported in Africa (16 million infections remained at low levels compared to Asia (70 million infections. The French Armed forces Health Service provides epidemiological surveillance support in the Republic of Djibouti through the Bouffard Military hospital. Between 2011 and 2014, clinical and biological data of suspected dengue syndromes were collected at the Bouffard Military hospital and analyzed to improve Dengue clinical diagnosis and evaluate its circulation in East Africa. Examining samples from patients that presented one or more Dengue-like symptoms the study evidenced 128 Dengue cases among 354 suspected cases (36.2% of the non-malarial Dengue-like syndromes. It also demonstrated the circulation of serotypes 1 and 2 and reports the first epidemic of serotype 3 infections in Djibouti which was found in all of the hospitalized patients in this study. Based on these results we have determined that screening for Malaria and the presence of the arthralgia, gastro-intestinal symptoms and lymphopenia < 1,000cell/ mm3 allows for negative predictive value and specificity of diagnosis in isolated areas superior to 80% up to day 6. This study also provides evidence for an epidemic of Dengue virus serotype 3 previously not detected in Djibouti.

  5. Concurrency-Induced Transitions in Epidemic Dynamics on Temporal Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onaga, Tomokatsu; Gleeson, James P; Masuda, Naoki

    2017-09-08

    Social contact networks underlying epidemic processes in humans and animals are highly dynamic. The spreading of infections on such temporal networks can differ dramatically from spreading on static networks. We theoretically investigate the effects of concurrency, the number of neighbors that a node has at a given time point, on the epidemic threshold in the stochastic susceptible-infected-susceptible dynamics on temporal network models. We show that network dynamics can suppress epidemics (i.e., yield a higher epidemic threshold) when the node's concurrency is low, but can also enhance epidemics when the concurrency is high. We analytically determine different phases of this concurrency-induced transition, and confirm our results with numerical simulations.

  6. Concurrency-Induced Transitions in Epidemic Dynamics on Temporal Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onaga, Tomokatsu; Gleeson, James P.; Masuda, Naoki

    2017-09-01

    Social contact networks underlying epidemic processes in humans and animals are highly dynamic. The spreading of infections on such temporal networks can differ dramatically from spreading on static networks. We theoretically investigate the effects of concurrency, the number of neighbors that a node has at a given time point, on the epidemic threshold in the stochastic susceptible-infected-susceptible dynamics on temporal network models. We show that network dynamics can suppress epidemics (i.e., yield a higher epidemic threshold) when the node's concurrency is low, but can also enhance epidemics when the concurrency is high. We analytically determine different phases of this concurrency-induced transition, and confirm our results with numerical simulations.

  7. Evaluating Subcriticality during the Ebola Epidemic in West Africa.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wayne T A Enanoria

    Full Text Available The 2014-2015 Ebola outbreak is the largest and most widespread to date. In order to estimate ongoing transmission in the affected countries, we estimated the weekly average number of secondary cases caused by one individual infected with Ebola throughout the infectious period for each affected West African country using a stochastic hidden Markov model fitted to case data from the World Health Organization. If the average number of infections caused by one Ebola infection is less than 1.0, the epidemic is subcritical and cannot sustain itself. The epidemics in Liberia and Sierra Leone have approached subcriticality at some point during the epidemic; the epidemic in Guinea is ongoing with no evidence that it is subcritical. Response efforts to control the epidemic should continue in order to eliminate Ebola cases in West Africa.

  8. Dynamical processes and epidemic threshold on nonlinear coupled multiplex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Chao; Tang, Shaoting; Li, Weihua; Yang, Yaqian; Zheng, Zhiming

    2018-04-01

    Recently, the interplay between epidemic spreading and awareness diffusion has aroused the interest of many researchers, who have studied models mainly based on linear coupling relations between information and epidemic layers. However, in real-world networks the relation between two layers may be closely correlated with the property of individual nodes and exhibits nonlinear dynamical features. Here we propose a nonlinear coupled information-epidemic model (I-E model) and present a comprehensive analysis in a more generalized scenario where the upload rate differs from node to node, deletion rate varies between susceptible and infected states, and infection rate changes between unaware and aware states. In particular, we develop a theoretical framework of the intra- and inter-layer dynamical processes with a microscopic Markov chain approach (MMCA), and derive an analytic epidemic threshold. Our results suggest that the change of upload and deletion rate has little effect on the diffusion dynamics in the epidemic layer.

  9. The influence of school holiday timing on epidemic impact.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eames, K T D

    2014-09-01

    The impact of reactive school closure on an epidemic is uncertain, since it is not clear how an unplanned closure will affect social mixing patterns. The effect of school holidays on social mixing patterns is better understood. Here, we use mathematical models to explore the influence of the timing of school holidays on the final size and peak incidence of an influenza-like epidemic. A well-timed holiday can reduce the impact of an epidemic, in particular substantially reducing an epidemic's peak. Final size and peak incidence cannot both be minimized: a later holiday is optimal for minimizing the final size, while an earlier holiday minimizes peak incidence. Using social mixing data from the UK, we estimated that, had the 2009 influenza epidemic not been interrupted by the school summer holidays, the final size would have been about 20% larger and the peak about 170% higher.

  10. Epidemic spreading between two coupled subpopulations with inner structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruan, Zhongyuan; Tang, Ming; Gu, Changgui; Xu, Jinshan

    2017-10-01

    The structure of underlying contact network and the mobility of agents are two decisive factors for epidemic spreading in reality. Here, we study a model consisting of two coupled subpopulations with intra-structures that emphasizes both the contact structure and the recurrent mobility pattern of individuals simultaneously. We show that the coupling of the two subpopulations (via interconnections between them and round trips of individuals) makes the epidemic threshold in each subnetwork to be the same. Moreover, we find that the interconnection probability between two subpopulations and the travel rate are important factors for spreading dynamics. In particular, as a function of interconnection probability, the epidemic threshold in each subpopulation decreases monotonously, which enhances the risks of an epidemic. While the epidemic threshold displays a non-monotonic variation as travel rate increases. Moreover, the asymptotic infected density as a function of travel rate in each subpopulation behaves differently depending on the interconnection probability.

  11. Suppressing traffic-driven epidemic spreading by adaptive routing strategy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, Han-Xin; Wang, Zhen

    2016-01-01

    The design of routing strategies for traffic-driven epidemic spreading has received increasing attention in recent years. In this paper, we propose an adaptive routing strategy that incorporates topological distance with local epidemic information through a tunable parameter h. In the case where the traffic is free of congestion, there exists an optimal value of routing parameter h, leading to the maximal epidemic threshold. This means that epidemic spreading can be more effectively controlled by adaptive routing, compared to that of the static shortest path routing scheme. Besides, we find that the optimal value of h can greatly relieve the traffic congestion in the case of finite node-delivering capacity. We expect our work to provide new insights into the effects of dynamic routings on traffic-driven epidemic spreading.

  12. Epidemics and dimensionality in hierarchical networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Da-Fang; Hui, P. M.; Trimper, Steffen; Zheng, Bo

    2005-07-01

    Epidemiological processes are studied within a recently proposed hierarchical network model using the susceptible-infected-refractory dynamics of an epidemic. Within the network model, a population may be characterized by H independent hierarchies or dimensions, each of which consists of groupings of individuals into layers of subgroups. Detailed numerical simulations reveal that for H>1, global spreading results regardless of the degree of homophily of the individuals forming a social circle. For H=1, a transition from global to local spread occurs as the population becomes decomposed into increasingly homophilous groups. Multiple dimensions in classifying individuals (nodes) thus make a society (computer network) highly susceptible to large-scale outbreaks of infectious diseases (viruses).

  13. Social networks and spreading of epidemics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trimper, Steffen; Zheng, Dafang; Brandau, Marian

    2004-05-01

    Epidemiological processes are studied within a recently proposed social network model using the susceptible-infected-refractory dynamics (SIR) of an epidemic. Within the network model, a population of individuals may be characterized by H independent hierarchies or dimensions, each of which consists of groupings of individuals into layers of subgroups. Detailed numerical simulations reveals that for H > 1, the global spreading results regardless of the degree of homophily α of the individuals forming a social circle. For H = 1, a transition from a global to a local spread occurs as the population becomes decomposed into increasingly homophilous groups. Multiple dimensions in classifying individuals (nodes) thus make a society (computer network) highly susceptible to large scale outbreaks of infectious diseases (viruses). The SIR-model can be extended by the inclusion of waiting times resulting in modified distribution function of the recovered.

  14. Quarantine generated phase transition in epidemic spreading

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dicksion, Mark; Lagorio, Cecilia; Vazquez, F.; Braunstein, L.; Macri, P. A.; Migueles, M. V.; Havlin, S.; Stanley, H. E.

    2011-03-01

    We study the critical effect of quarantine on the propagation of epidemics on an adaptive network of social contacts. For this purpose, we analyze the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model in the presence of quarantine, where susceptible individuals protect themselves by disconnecting their links to infected neighbors with probability w, and reconnecting them to other susceptible individuals chosen at random. Starting from a single infected individual, we show by an analytical approach and simulations that there is a phase transition at a critical rewiring (quarantine) threshold wc separating a phase (w =wc) where the disease does not spread out. We find that in our model the topology of the network strongly affects the size of the propagation, and that wc increases with the mean degree and heterogeneity of the network. We also find that wc is reduced if we perform a preferential rewiring, in which the rewiring probability is proportional to the degree of infected nodes.

  15. Epidemic Dynamics in Open Quantum Spin Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pérez-Espigares, Carlos; Marcuzzi, Matteo; Gutiérrez, Ricardo; Lesanovsky, Igor

    2017-10-01

    We explore the nonequilibrium evolution and stationary states of an open many-body system that displays epidemic spreading dynamics in a classical and a quantum regime. Our study is motivated by recent experiments conducted in strongly interacting gases of highly excited Rydberg atoms where the facilitated excitation of Rydberg states competes with radiative decay. These systems approximately implement open quantum versions of models for population dynamics or disease spreading where species can be in a healthy, infected or immune state. We show that in a two-dimensional lattice, depending on the dominance of either classical or quantum effects, the system may display a different kind of nonequilibrium phase transition. We moreover discuss the observability of our findings in laser driven Rydberg gases with particular focus on the role of long-range interactions.

  16. Multilingual event extraction for epidemic detection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lejeune, Gaël; Brixtel, Romain; Doucet, Antoine; Lucas, Nadine

    2015-10-01

    This paper presents a multilingual news surveillance system applied to tele-epidemiology. It has been shown that multilingual approaches improve timeliness in detection of epidemic events across the globe, eliminating the wait for local news to be translated into major languages. We present here a system to extract epidemic events in potentially any language, provided a Wikipedia seed for common disease names exists. The Daniel system presented herein relies on properties that are common to news writing (the journalistic genre), the most useful being repetition and saliency. Wikipedia is used to screen common disease names to be matched with repeated characters strings. Language variations, such as declensions, are handled by processing text at the character-level, rather than at the word level. This additionally makes it possible to handle various writing systems in a similar fashion. As no multilingual ground truth existed to evaluate the Daniel system, we built a multilingual corpus from the Web, and collected annotations from native speakers of Chinese, English, Greek, Polish and Russian, with no connection or interest in the Daniel system. This data set is available online freely, and can be used for the evaluation of other event extraction systems. Experiments for 5 languages out of 17 tested are detailed in this paper: Chinese, English, Greek, Polish and Russian. The Daniel system achieves an average F-measure of 82% in these 5 languages. It reaches 87% on BEcorpus, the state-of-the-art corpus in English, slightly below top-performing systems, which are tailored with numerous language-specific resources. The consistent performance of Daniel on multiple languages is an important contribution to the reactivity and the coverage of epidemiological event detection systems. Most event extraction systems rely on extensive resources that are language-specific. While their sophistication induces excellent results (over 90% precision and recall), it restricts their

  17. Genealogical evidence for epidemics of selfish genes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ingvarsson, Par K; Taylor, Douglas R

    2002-08-20

    Some genetic elements spread infectiously in populations by increasing their rate of genetic transmission at the expense of other genes in the genome. These so-called selfish genetic elements comprise a substantial portion of eukaryotic genomes and have long been viewed as a potent evolutionary force. Despite this view, little is known about the evolutionary history of selfish genetic elements in natural populations, or their genetic effects on other portions of the genome. Here we use nuclear and chloroplast gene genealogies in two species of Silene to show the historical pattern of selection on a well known selfish genetic element, cytoplasmic male sterility. We provide evidence that evolution of cytoplasmic male sterility has been characterized by frequent turnovers of mutations in natural populations, thus supporting an epidemic model for the evolution of selfish genes, where new mutations repeatedly arise and rapidly sweep through populations.

  18. Open data mining for Taiwan's dengue epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, ChienHsing; Kao, Shu-Chen; Shih, Chia-Hung; Kan, Meng-Hsuan

    2018-07-01

    By using a quantitative approach, this study examines the applicability of data mining technique to discover knowledge from open data related to Taiwan's dengue epidemic. We compare results when Google trend data are included or excluded. Data sources are government open data, climate data, and Google trend data. Research findings from analysis of 70,914 cases are obtained. Location and time (month) in open data show the highest classification power followed by climate variables (temperature and humidity), whereas gender and age show the lowest values. Both prediction accuracy and simplicity decrease when Google trends are considered (respectively 0.94 and 0.37, compared to 0.96 and 0.46). The article demonstrates the value of open data mining in the context of public health care. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  19. Chernobyl: Symptom of a worrying psychological epidemic

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pretre, S.

    1991-01-01

    The Chernobyl psychological epidemic was already latent well prior to 1986 fully broke out after the accident, and continues to spread. It must be halted. But how can we counter a belief which has taken on the appearance of reality. It is the unknown, linked to alarming symbols, which sustains fear. To get beyond this state, radioactivity, ionizing radiation and nuclear energy have to become as ordinary as air travel and electronic calculators. In a climate of confidence and openness, it should be possible to successfully communicate several solid scientific reference points by first targeting teachers, doctors, and journalists. Thirty years ago, nuclear energy was presented as a universal panacea (clean, safe, and renewable). Now things have swung to the other extreme, and it is presented as diabolical. We have shifted from a symbolically white level to a symbolically black level, and both are misleading. It is high time to rejoin the world of facts, a world full of shades of gray

  20. A stochastic SIS epidemic model with vaccination

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Boqiang; Shan, Meijing; Zhang, Qimin; Wang, Weiming

    2017-11-01

    In this paper, we investigate the basic features of an SIS type infectious disease model with varying population size and vaccinations in presence of environment noise. By applying the Markov semigroup theory, we propose a stochastic reproduction number R0s which can be seen as a threshold parameter to utilize in identifying the stochastic extinction and persistence: If R0s disease-free absorbing set for the stochastic epidemic model, which implies that disease dies out with probability one; while if R0s > 1, under some mild extra conditions, the SDE model has an endemic stationary distribution which results in the stochastic persistence of the infectious disease. The most interesting finding is that large environmental noise can suppress the outbreak of the disease.

  1. Fractional virus epidemic model on financial networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Balci Mehmet Ali

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we present an epidemic model that characterizes the behavior of a financial network of globally operating stock markets. Since the long time series have a global memory effect, we represent our model by using the fractional calculus. This model operates on a network, where vertices are the stock markets and edges are constructed by the correlation distances. Thereafter, we find an analytical solution to commensurate system and use the well-known differential transform method to obtain the solution of incommensurate system of fractional differential equations. Our findings are confirmed and complemented by the data set of the relevant stock markets between 2006 and 2016. Rather than the hypothetical values, we use the Hurst Exponent of each time series to approximate the fraction size and graph theoretical concepts to obtain the variables.

  2. Epidemics scenarios in the "Romantic network".

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexsandro M Carvalho

    Full Text Available The networks of sexual contacts together with temporal interactions play key roles in the spread of sexually transmitted infections. Unfortunately, data for this kind of network is scarce. One of the few exceptions, the "Romantic network", is a complete structure of a real sexual network in a high school. Based on many network measurements the authors of the work have concluded that it does not correspond to any other model network. Regarding the temporal structure, several studies indicate that relationship timing can have an effect on the diffusion throughout networks, as relationship order determines transmission routes. The aim is to check if the particular structure, static and dynamic, of the Romantic network is determinant for the propagation of an STI. We performed simulations in two scenarios: the static network where all contacts are available and the dynamic case where contacts evolve over time. In the static case, we compared the epidemic results in the Romantic network with some paradigmatic topologies. In the dynamic scenario, we considered the dynamics of formation of pairs in the Romantic network and we studied the propagation of the diseases. Our results suggest that although this real network cannot be labeled as a Watts-Strogatz network, it is, in regard to the propagation of an STI, very similar to a high disorder network. Additionally, we found that: the effect that any individual contacting an externally infected subject is to make the network closer to a fully connected one, the higher the contact degree of patient zero the faster the spread of the outbreaks, and the epidemic impact is proportional to the numbers of contacts per unit time. Finally, our simulations confirm that relationship timing severely reduced the final outbreak size, and also, show a clear correlation between the average degree and the outbreak size over time.

  3. Information content of household-stratified epidemics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T.M. Kinyanjui

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Household structure is a key driver of many infectious diseases, as well as a natural target for interventions such as vaccination programs. Many theoretical and conceptual advances on household-stratified epidemic models are relatively recent, but have successfully managed to increase the applicability of such models to practical problems. To be of maximum realism and hence benefit, they require parameterisation from epidemiological data, and while household-stratified final size data has been the traditional source, increasingly time-series infection data from households are becoming available. This paper is concerned with the design of studies aimed at collecting time-series epidemic data in order to maximize the amount of information available to calibrate household models. A design decision involves a trade-off between the number of households to enrol and the sampling frequency. Two commonly used epidemiological study designs are considered: cross-sectional, where different households are sampled at every time point, and cohort, where the same households are followed over the course of the study period. The search for an optimal design uses Bayesian computationally intensive methods to explore the joint parameter-design space combined with the Shannon entropy of the posteriors to estimate the amount of information in each design. For the cross-sectional design, the amount of information increases with the sampling intensity, i.e., the designs with the highest number of time points have the most information. On the other hand, the cohort design often exhibits a trade-off between the number of households sampled and the intensity of follow-up. Our results broadly support the choices made in existing epidemiological data collection studies. Prospective problem-specific use of our computational methods can bring significant benefits in guiding future study designs.

  4. Information content of household-stratified epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinyanjui, T M; Pellis, L; House, T

    2016-09-01

    Household structure is a key driver of many infectious diseases, as well as a natural target for interventions such as vaccination programs. Many theoretical and conceptual advances on household-stratified epidemic models are relatively recent, but have successfully managed to increase the applicability of such models to practical problems. To be of maximum realism and hence benefit, they require parameterisation from epidemiological data, and while household-stratified final size data has been the traditional source, increasingly time-series infection data from households are becoming available. This paper is concerned with the design of studies aimed at collecting time-series epidemic data in order to maximize the amount of information available to calibrate household models. A design decision involves a trade-off between the number of households to enrol and the sampling frequency. Two commonly used epidemiological study designs are considered: cross-sectional, where different households are sampled at every time point, and cohort, where the same households are followed over the course of the study period. The search for an optimal design uses Bayesian computationally intensive methods to explore the joint parameter-design space combined with the Shannon entropy of the posteriors to estimate the amount of information in each design. For the cross-sectional design, the amount of information increases with the sampling intensity, i.e., the designs with the highest number of time points have the most information. On the other hand, the cohort design often exhibits a trade-off between the number of households sampled and the intensity of follow-up. Our results broadly support the choices made in existing epidemiological data collection studies. Prospective problem-specific use of our computational methods can bring significant benefits in guiding future study designs. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. Heroin epidemics, treatment and ODE modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Emma; Comiskey, Catherine

    2007-07-01

    The UN [United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC): World Drug Report, 2005, vol. 1: Analysis. UNODC, 2005.], EU [European Monitoring Centre for Drugs and Drug Addiction (EMCDDA): Annual Report, 2005.http://annualreport.emcdda.eu.int/en/home-en.html.] and WHO [World Health Organisation (WHO): Biregional Strategy for Harm Reduction, 2005-2009. HIV and Injecting Drug Use. WHO, 2005.] have consistently highlighted in recent years the ongoing and persistent nature of opiate and particularly heroin use on a global scale. While this is a global phenomenon, authors have emphasised the significant impact such an epidemic has on individual lives and on society. National prevalence studies have indicated the scale of the problem, but the drug-using career, typically consisting of initiation, habitual use, a treatment-relapse cycle and eventual recovery, is not well understood. This paper presents one of the first ODE models of opiate addiction, based on the principles of mathematical epidemiology. The aim of this model is to identify parameters of interest for further study, with a view to informing and assisting policy-makers in targeting prevention and treatment resources for maximum effectiveness. An epidemic threshold value, R(0), is proposed for the drug-using career. Sensitivity analysis is performed on R(0) and it is then used to examine the stability of the system. A condition under which a backward bifurcation may exist is found, as are conditions that permit the existence of one or more endemic equilibria. A key result arising from this model is that prevention is indeed better than cure.

  6. On Military Innovation: Toward an Analytical Framework

    OpenAIRE

    Ross, Andrew L

    2010-01-01

    What is military innovation? How should we think about Chinese military innovation? By developing an analytical framework that captures both the components of military innovation (technology, doctrine, and organization) and the continuum of change, we can better assess the nature, extent, and importance of contemporary Chinese military innovation.

  7. Patient Satisfaction in Military Dental Treatment Facilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    2006-03-07

    the variance in regards to overall satisfaction. 15. SUBJECT TERMS Dentistry, Patient Satisfaction, Military, Consumer Satisfaction, Dental... patient satisfaction in military dental treatment facilities. Dental health is extremely important for the military as dental assets are not always... customer satisfaction is an important component of military dental care. Quarterly patient satisfaction reports are generated for each dental treatment

  8. The Military and the Transition to Adulthood

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelty, Ryan; Kleykamp, Meredith; Segal, David R.

    2010-01-01

    Ryan Kelty, Meredith Kleykamp, and David Segal examine the effect of military service on the transition to adulthood. They highlight changes since World War II in the role of the military in the lives of young adults, focusing especially on how the move from a conscription to an all-volunteer military has changed the way military service affects…

  9. 32 CFR 575.1 - Military Academy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 32 National Defense 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 true Military Academy. 575.1 Section 575.1 National... MILITARY ACADEMY § 575.1 Military Academy. (a) Organization and administration. (1) The United States Military Academy is under the general direction and supervision of the Department of the Army. The...

  10. 31 CFR 29.333 - Military service.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 31 Money and Finance: Treasury 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Military service. 29.333 Section 29... Satisfied by June 30, 1997 § 29.333 Military service. (a) For employees who entered on duty on or before June 30, 1997, and whose military service was performed prior to that date, credit for military service...

  11. The Ambiguity of Foreign Military Assistance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Laugesen, Henrik

    This study tests the argument that Foreign Military Assistance and the consequently professionalizing of the recipient military has a positive effect on the process of democratization in Kenya.......This study tests the argument that Foreign Military Assistance and the consequently professionalizing of the recipient military has a positive effect on the process of democratization in Kenya....

  12. Gender Dysphoria in the Military.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ford, Shannon; Schnitzlein, Carla

    2017-11-07

    With the announcement that members of the military who identify as transgender are allowed to serve openly, the need for Department of Defense behavioral health providers to be comfortable in the assessment, diagnosis, and treatment of this population becomes quickly evident. This population has been seeking care in the community and standards have been developed to help guide decision-making, but a comparable document does not exist for the military population. Previously published papers were written in anticipation of the policy allowing for open service. The civilian sector has treatment guidelines and evidence supporting the same for reference. There is no similar document for the military population, likely due to the recent change and ongoing development. This paper attempts to provide an overview of the recent Department of Defense policy and walks the reader through key considerations when providing care to a transgender member of the military as it relates to those who are currently serving in the military through the use of a case example. The military transgender population faces some unique challenges due to the need to balance readiness and deployability with medically necessary health care. Also complicating patient care is that policy development is ongoing-as of this publication, the decision has not yet been made regarding how people who identify as transgender will access into the military nor is there final approval regarding coverage for surgical procedures. Unique circumstances of this population are brought up to generate more discussion and encourage further evaluation and refinement of the process.

  13. A theory of military dictatorships

    OpenAIRE

    Acemoglu, Daron; Ticchi, Davide; Vindigni, Andrea

    2008-01-01

    We investigate how nondemocratic regimes use the military and how this can lead to the emergence of military dictatorships. Nondemocratic regimes need the use of force in order to remain in power, but this creates a political moral hazard problem; a strong military may not simply work as an agent of the elite but may turn against them in order to create a regime more in line with their own objectives. The political moral hazard problem increases the cost of using repression in nondemocratic r...

  14. A Study of Military Technopolitics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nørgaard, Katrine

    , governments and military services hope to introduce game-changing military technologies that are ‘better, faster and cheaper’, investing heavily in research and development of AWS. In this paper, I wish to map the different and competing practices of critique and justification that shape the technopolitical...... controversy of AWS, showing its complexity and internal contradictions. In addition to identifying the dominant regimes of justification, that organize the discourse of AWS, I argue that the military bureau and its officeholders become technopolitical mediators and translators of risk in an emergent practice...

  15. The economic impact of military expenditures

    OpenAIRE

    Landau, Daniel

    1993-01-01

    The author addresses three questions about military spending in developing countries: What are the levels of (and trends in) military spending as a percentage of gross national product? What impact does peacetime military spending have on growth, government spending on social welfare and infrastructure, and other key economic variables? What major factors influence the level of military spending? The author finds that military spending as a share of GNP generally fell in the 1980s, even in th...

  16. Disaster imminent--Hurricane Hugo.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guynn, J B

    1990-04-01

    Response to a disaster situation depends upon the type of circumstances presented. In situations where the disaster is the type that affects the hospital as well as a wide surrounding area directly, the hospital and pharmacy itself may be called upon to continue functioning for some period of time without outside assistance. The ability to function for prolonged periods of time requires the staff to focus on the job at hand and the administrative staff to provide security, compassion, and flexibility. Plans for a disaster of the nature of a hurricane require that attention be paid to staffing, medication inventories, supplies, and services being rendered. Recognition of the singular position occupied by a hospital in the community and the expectations of the local population require that hospitals and the pharmacy department have the ability to respond appropriately.

  17. Can influenza epidemics be prevented by voluntary vaccination?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raffaele Vardavas

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available Previous modeling studies have identified the vaccination coverage level necessary for preventing influenza epidemics, but have not shown whether this critical coverage can be reached. Here we use computational modeling to determine, for the first time, whether the critical coverage for influenza can be achieved by voluntary vaccination. We construct a novel individual-level model of human cognition and behavior; individuals are characterized by two biological attributes (memory and adaptability that they use when making vaccination decisions. We couple this model with a population-level model of influenza that includes vaccination dynamics. The coupled models allow individual-level decisions to influence influenza epidemiology and, conversely, influenza epidemiology to influence individual-level decisions. By including the effects of adaptive decision-making within an epidemic model, we can reproduce two essential characteristics of influenza epidemiology: annual variation in epidemic severity and sporadic occurrence of severe epidemics. We suggest that individual-level adaptive decision-making may be an important (previously overlooked causal factor in driving influenza epidemiology. We find that severe epidemics cannot be prevented unless vaccination programs offer incentives. Frequency of severe epidemics could be reduced if programs provide, as an incentive to be vaccinated, several years of free vaccines to individuals who pay for one year of vaccination. Magnitude of epidemic amelioration will be determined by the number of years of free vaccination, an individuals' adaptability in decision-making, and their memory. This type of incentive program could control epidemics if individuals are very adaptable and have long-term memories. However, incentive-based programs that provide free vaccination for families could increase the frequency of severe epidemics. We conclude that incentive-based vaccination programs are necessary to control

  18. Military Librarians Workshop: A Premier Gathering of Military Librarians, 1957-1999

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Palmer, William A., Jr; Hanna, Marcia

    2000-01-01

    The Military Librarian Workshop(MLW) is an annual meeting that brings together civilian and military personnel who serve as special librarians, library supervisors, or technical information officers in military or governmental...

  19. Outsourcing Small Wars: Expanding the Role of Private Military Companies in U.S. Military Operations

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Jorgensen, Brent M

    2005-01-01

    "Outsourcing Small Wars: Expanding the Role of Private Military Companies in U.S. Military Operations" argues that, under current domestic and international laws, and current military regulations and doctrine...

  20. Five challenges for stochastic epidemic models involving global transmission

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tom Britton

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The most basic stochastic epidemic models are those involving global transmission, meaning that infection rates depend only on the type and state of the individuals involved, and not on their location in the population. Simple as they are, there are still several open problems for such models. For example, when will such an epidemic go extinct and with what probability (questions depending on the population being fixed, changing or growing? How can a model be defined explaining the sometimes observed scenario of frequent mid-sized epidemic outbreaks? How can evolution of the infectious agent transmission rates be modelled and fitted to data in a robust way?

  1. Epidemic Spread in Networks Induced by Deactivation Mechanism

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu Xiaoling; Wu Xiao; Zhang Duanming; Li Zhihao; Liang Fang; Wang Xiaoyu

    2008-01-01

    We have studied the topology and epidemic spreading behaviors on the networks in which deactivation mechanism and long-rang connection are coexisted. By means of numerical simulation, we find that the clustering coefficient C and the Pearson correlation coefficient r decrease with increasing long-range connection μ and the topological state of the network changes into that of BA model at the end (when μ = 1). For the Susceptible-Infect-Susceptible model of epidemics, the epidemic threshold can reach maximum value at μ = 0.4 and presents two different variable states around μ = 0.4

  2. Know your epidemic, know your response: targeting HIV in Asia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lazarus, Jeff; Curth, Nadja; Bridge, Jamie

    2010-01-01

    This article provides an overview of the HIV epidemic in Asia, the context within which the epidemic is evolving, and the key actions to address the challenges faced by countries and risk groups. HIV epidemics across Asia are predominantly concentrated among most-at-risk populations. Although...... prevention and treatment services. In order to reach the Millennium Development Goal of halting and reversing the spread of HIV by 2015 and to achieve universal access to HIV treatment, these barriers must be overcome across Asia. High-impact programs must be targeted at those in need, with continuous...

  3. The impact of awareness on epidemic spreading in networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Qingchu; Fu, Xinchu; Small, Michael; Xu, Xin-Jian

    2012-03-01

    We explore the impact of awareness on epidemic spreading through a population represented by a scale-free network. Using a network mean-field approach, a mathematical model for epidemic spreading with awareness reactions is proposed and analyzed. We focus on the role of three forms of awareness including local, global, and contact awareness. By theoretical analysis and simulation, we show that the global awareness cannot decrease the likelihood of an epidemic outbreak while both the local awareness and the contact awareness can. Also, the influence degree of the local awareness on disease dynamics is closely related with the contact awareness.

  4. Inhomogeneity of epidemic spreading with entropy-based infected clusters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen-Jie, Zhou; Xing-Yuan, Wang

    2013-12-01

    Considering the difference in the sizes of the infected clusters in the dynamic complex networks, the normalized entropy based on infected clusters (δ*) is proposed to characterize the inhomogeneity of epidemic spreading. δ* gives information on the variability of the infected clusters in the system. We investigate the variation in the inhomogeneity of the distribution of the epidemic with the absolute velocity v of moving agent, the infection density ρ, and the interaction radius r. By comparing δ* in the dynamic networks with δH* in homogeneous mode, the simulation experiments show that the inhomogeneity of epidemic spreading becomes smaller with the increase of v, ρ, r.

  5. The psychiatric epidemic in the American workplace.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brodsky, C M

    1988-01-01

    make renouncement tantamount to betrayal. The mass psychogenic illness or psychiatric epidemic that occurs in the workplace offers an opportunity not only to study the elements of a biopsychosocial system, but also offers opportunities for medical anthropological studies that relate the causes and courses of specific episodes of MPI to the cultures of the individuals who develop symptoms and the cultures of the area in which the epidemic occurs.

  6. Military Engineers and Chemical Warfare Troops (Inzhenernye Voiska Khimicheskie Voiska),

    Science.gov (United States)

    MILITARY FORCES(FOREIGN), *MILITARY ORGANIZATIONS, MILITARY ENGINEERING , INFANTRY, AMPHIBIOUS OPERATIONS, MINELAYING, ARMORED VEHICLES, NUCLEAR...RADIATION, DOSIMETERS, CHEMICAL WARFARE, PROTECTIVE CLOTHING, DECONTAMINATION, HEALTH PHYSICS.

  7. MilitaryPayDecnService

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Veterans Affairs — Supports operations to access/update data related to (Compensation and Pension) Awards. This service will also support business processes such as reading military...

  8. Energy Requirements of Military Personnel

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Tharion, William J; Lieberman, Harris R; Montain, Scott J; Young, Andrew J; Baker-Fulco, Carol J

    2005-01-01

    ...) have been measured while training under various conditions. Group mean total energy expenditures for 424 male military personnel from various units engaged in diverse missions ranged from 13.0 to 29.8 MJ per day...

  9. Comparative International Military Personnel Policies

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Harries-Jenkins, Gwyn

    1998-01-01

    .... It is particularly concerned with issues relating to the recruitment and retention within the military of homosexuals, that is, those individuals who have a sexual propensity for persons of their own gender...

  10. French military plans for Superphenix

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Albright, D.

    1984-01-01

    France refuses to rule out military use of the plutonium produced by the planned breeder reactor Superphenix, although other nations, including the US, have contributed nuclear materials to it. US policy has been to separate military and civilian nuclear programs to set an example. France has not stated an intention to use Superphenix for military purposes, but is reserving the right to do so. It does not separate the two kinds of nuclear materials for economic reasons. The Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) does not address the possibility that plutonium pledged to peaceful use might be commingled with plutonium for military use in a civilian facility within a weapons state. The US could work to strengthen the US-Euratom Agreement on the basis of the contamination principle. 11 references

  11. Committee on Military Nutrition Research

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Poos, Mary

    2000-01-01

    .... Its purpose is to provide reviews and recommendations to the Commander, U.S. Army Medical Research and Materiel Command, on research projects, programs, and products as they relate to the nutrition and performance of military personnel...

  12. Western Military Culture and Counterinsurgency:

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    francois

    with a threat both abroad and within their homeland societies. Civilians fulfil a ..... we have now with the use of force and forces is their persistent structuring ... advanced equipment remains the main feature of Western military culture. Western.

  13. Education and the Knowledge Military

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    sea power introducing education as an additional population characteristic , a review of education philosophy, education trends, impact of education on the knowledge military, and the impact of the knowledge on the joint force.

  14. Obesity Prevention in the Military.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shams-White, Marissa; Deuster, Patricia

    2017-06-01

    The objective was to review prevention efforts and approaches attempting to limit the problem of obesity in the military. Various individual-level initiatives have emerged, including programs promoting healthy cooking, meal planning, and other behavior changes among service members. Importantly, the military is attempting to tackle environmental factors contributing to the rise of obesity, by focusing on many recent environmental-level interventions and initiatives to improve military dining facilities and examine and modify other aspects of installations' built environments. Although published research within the military setting directed towards obesity prevention is limited, many innovative programs have been launched and need to be followed forward. The review of past and ongoing efforts can be an important step in identifying specific areas needing improvement, gaps that should be considered, lessons learned, and characteristics of successful programs that should be disseminated as best practices and further expanded.

  15. Army Military Land Tracts (AMLT)

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Geographic Data Committee — This data set is part of a collection of real estate data concerning current and historic military installations whose real property interests are managed by the...

  16. Military Strategy of Global Jihad

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Zabel, Sarah E

    2007-01-01

    .... The 9/11 attacks set this plan in motion. In the years leading up to and following the 9/11 attacks, global jihadis have written copiously on their military strategy for creating an Islamic state...

  17. The evolution of military technology

    CERN Document Server

    Hagler, Gina

    2018-01-01

    War has at some point touched every nation. Beginning with ancient history and following through to the present, this book addresses the question of why war exists, and explains the shapes in which it occurs. It will lead young readers on a journey through time by tracing weapons from the earliest stones and clubs to modern technological military warfare. Along with the evolution of weaponry through the ages, it also goes into the development of protective gear, transportation, communication, and military strategies.

  18. Military use of Virtual Reality

    OpenAIRE

    Gullaksen, Rasmus; Nielsen, Kristoffer Merrild; Siegel, Viktor; Labuz, Patrick Ravn

    2017-01-01

    This project is sparked by the contemporary evolvement that has been happening with consumer Virtual Reality technology and an interest for looking into the military industrial complex. The paper describes how Virtual Reality as a concept has evolved historically since the 19th century and how it has since entered the military and consumer market. The implementation of Virtual Reality is described in order to analyse it by using Technology-Oriented Scenario Analysis, as described by Francesco...

  19. Cybersecurity education for military officers

    OpenAIRE

    Bardwell, Andrew; Buggy, Sean; Walls, Remuis

    2017-01-01

    Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited Cyber threats are a growing concern for our military, creating a need for cybersecurity education. Current methods used to educate students about cyber, including annual Navy Knowledge Online training, are perceived to be ineffective. The Naval Postgraduate School developed an All hands pilot cybersecurity course with the objective of increasing military officers' cybersecurity awareness. The three of us participated in the ten-week co...

  20. Military Construction: Process and Outcomes

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-12-14

    barracks, schools, hospitals, child development centers, and other facilities needed to support U.S. military forces at home and overseas. This military...and programming into the President’s budget could take three or more years. Furthermore, it is important to note that only those projects that have...travel, fuel, minor construction projects of $1M or less, training and education , and depot maintenance, and base operations support. O&M

  1. Coordination and relationships between organisations during the civil-military international response against Ebola in Sierra Leone: an observational discussion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forestier, Colleen; Cox, A T; Horne, S

    2016-06-01

    The Ebola virus disease (EVD) crisis in West Africa began in March 2014. At the beginning of the outbreak, no one could have predicted just how far-reaching its effects would be. The EVD epidemic proved to be a unique and unusual humanitarian and public health crisis. It caused worldwide fear that impeded the rapid response required to contain it early. The situation in Sierra Leone (SL) forced the formation of a unique series of civil-military interagency relationships to be formed in order to halt the epidemic. Civil-military cooperation in humanitarian situations is not unique to this crisis; however, the slow response, the unusual nature of the battle itself and the uncertainty of the framework required to fight this deadly virus created a situation that forced civilian and military organisations to form distinct, cooperative relationships. The unique nature of the Ebola virus necessitated a steering away from normal civil-military relationships and standard pillar responses. National and international non-governmental organisations (NGOs), Department for International Development (DFID) and the SL and UK militaries were required to disable this deadly virus (as of 7 November 2015, SL was declared EVD free). This paper draws on personal experiences and preliminary distillation of information gathered in formal interviews. It discusses some of the interesting features of the interagency relationships, particularly between the military, the UK's DFID, international organisations, NGOs and departments of the SL government. The focus is on how these relationships were key to achieving a coordinated solution to EVD in SL both on the ground and within the larger organisational structure. It also discusses how these relationships needed to rapidly evolve and change along with the epidemiological curve. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

  2. Current Zika virus epidemiology and recent epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ioos, S; Mallet, H-P; Leparc Goffart, I; Gauthier, V; Cardoso, T; Herida, M

    2014-07-01

    The Zika virus (ZIKV) is a mosquito-borne flavivirus (Aedes), similar to other arboviruses, first identified in Uganda in 1947. Few human cases were reported until 2007, when a Zika outbreak occurred in Yap, Micronesia, even though ZIKV activity had been reported in Africa and in Asia through virological surveillance and entomological studies. French Polynesia has recorded a large outbreak since October 2013. A great number of cases and some with neurological and autoimmune complications have been reported in a context of concurrent circulation of dengue viruses. The clinical presentation is a "dengue-like syndrome". Until the epidemic in French Polynesia, no severe ZIKV disease had been described so far. The diagnosis is confirmed by viral genome detection by genomic amplification (RT- PCR) and viral isolation. These two large outbreaks occurred in a previously unaffected area in less than a decade. They should raise awareness as to the potential for ZIKV to spread especially since this emergent disease is not well known and that some questions remain on potential reservoirs and transmission modes as well as on clinical presentations and complications. ZIKV has the potential to spread to new areas where the Aedes mosquito vector is present and could be a risk for Southern Europe. Strategies for the prevention and control of ZIKV disease should include the use of insect repellent and mosquito vector eradication. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  3. Diffusive epidemic process: theory and simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maia, Daniel Souza; Dickman, Ronald

    2007-01-01

    We study the continuous absorbing-state phase transition in the one-dimensional diffusive epidemic process via mean-field theory and Monte Carlo simulation. In this model, particles of two species (A and B) hop on a lattice and undergo reactions B → A and A+B → 2B; the total particle number is conserved. We formulate the model as a continuous-time Markov process described by a master equation. A phase transition between the (absorbing) B-free state and an active state is observed as the parameters (reaction and diffusion rates, and total particle density) are varied. Mean-field theory reveals a surprising, nonmonotonic dependence of the critical recovery rate on the diffusion rate of B particles. A computational realization of the process that is faithful to the transition rates defining the model is devised, allowing for direct comparison with theory. Using the quasi-stationary simulation method we determine the order parameter and the survival time in systems of up to 4000 sites. Due to strong finite-size effects, the results converge only for large system sizes. We find no evidence for a discontinuous transition. Our results are consistent with the existence of three distinct universality classes, depending on whether A particles diffusive more rapidly, less rapidly or at the same rate as B particles. We also perform quasi-stationary simulations of the triplet creation model, which yield results consistent with a discontinuous transition at high diffusion rates

  4. Spatially explicit modelling of cholera epidemics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finger, F.; Bertuzzo, E.; Mari, L.; Knox, A. C.; Gatto, M.; Rinaldo, A.

    2013-12-01

    Epidemiological models can provide crucial understanding about the dynamics of infectious diseases. Possible applications range from real-time forecasting and allocation of health care resources to testing alternative intervention mechanisms such as vaccines, antibiotics or the improvement of sanitary conditions. We apply a spatially explicit model to the cholera epidemic that struck Haiti in October 2010 and is still ongoing. The dynamics of susceptibles as well as symptomatic and asymptomatic infectives are modelled at the scale of local human communities. Dissemination of Vibrio cholerae through hydrological transport and human mobility along the road network is explicitly taken into account, as well as the effect of rainfall as a driver of increasing disease incidence. The model is calibrated using a dataset of reported cholera cases. We further model the long term impact of several types of interventions on the disease dynamics by varying parameters appropriately. Key epidemiological mechanisms and parameters which affect the efficiency of treatments such as antibiotics are identified. Our results lead to conclusions about the influence of different intervention strategies on the overall epidemiological dynamics.

  5. Human enterovirus 71 epidemics: what's next?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yip, Cyril C. Y.; Lau, Susanna K. P.; Woo, Patrick C. Y.; Yuen, Kwok-Yung

    2013-01-01

    Human enterovirus 71 (EV71) epidemics have affected various countries in the past 40 years. EV71 commonly causes hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in children, but can result in neurological and cardiorespiratory complications in severe cases. Genotypic changes of EV71 have been observed in different places over time, with the emergence of novel genotypes or subgenotypes giving rise to serious outbreaks. Since the late 1990s, intra- and inter-typic recombination events in EV71 have been increasingly reported in the Asia-Pacific region. In particular, ‘double-recombinant’ EV71 strains belonging to a novel genotype D have been predominant in mainland China and Hong Kong over the last decade, though co-circulating with a minority of other EV71 subgenotypes and coxsackie A viruses. Continuous surveillance and genome studies are important to detect potential novel mutants or recombinants in the near future. Rapid and sensitive molecular detection of EV71 is of paramount importance in anticipating and combating EV71 outbreaks. PMID:24119538

  6. Military Construction, Military Quality of Life and Veterans Affairs: FY2007 Appropriations

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Else, Daniel H; Scott, Christine; Panangala, Sidath V

    2007-01-01

    ... construction, military housing allowances, military installation maintenance and operation, the Department of Veterans Affairs, and other veteran-related agencies, rested in the House Committee...

  7. Korean Crisis, 1994: Military Geography, Military Balance, Military Options. CRS Report for Congress

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Collins, John

    1994-01-01

    .... This report reviews military options open to each side as the United Nations, United States, and South Korea explore ways to resolve the resultant crisis peacefully despite threats of war from Pyongyang...

  8. Topology dependent epidemic spreading velocity in weighted networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duan, Wei; Qiu, Xiaogang; Quax, Rick; Lees, Michael; Sloot, Peter M A

    2014-01-01

    Many diffusive processes occur on structured networks with weighted links, such as disease spread by airplane transport or information diffusion in social networks or blogs. Understanding the impact of weight-connectivity correlations on epidemic spreading in weighted networks is crucial to support decision-making on disease control and other diffusive processes. However, a real understanding of epidemic spreading velocity in weighted networks is still lacking. Here we conduct a numerical study of the velocity of a Reed–Frost epidemic spreading process in various weighted network topologies as a function of the correlations between edge weights and node degrees. We find that a positive weight-connectivity correlation leads to a faster epidemic spreading compared to an unweighted network. In contrast, we find that both uncorrelated and negatively correlated weight distributions lead to slower spreading processes. In the case of positive weight-connectivity correlations, the acceleration of spreading velocity is weak when the heterogeneity of weight distribution increases. (paper)

  9. Epidemic spreading in time-varying community networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ren, Guangming, E-mail: wangxy@dlut.edu.cn, E-mail: ren-guang-ming@163.com [School of Electronic and Information, Guangdong Polytechnic Normal University, Guangzhou 510665 (China); Faculty of Electronic Information and Electrical Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024 (China); Wang, Xingyuan, E-mail: wangxy@dlut.edu.cn, E-mail: ren-guang-ming@163.com [Faculty of Electronic Information and Electrical Engineering, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian 116024 (China)

    2014-06-15

    The spreading processes of many infectious diseases have comparable time scale as the network evolution. Here, we present a simple networks model with time-varying community structure, and investigate susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic spreading processes in this model. By both theoretic analysis and numerical simulations, we show that the efficiency of epidemic spreading in this model depends intensively on the mobility rate q of the individuals among communities. We also find that there exists a mobility rate threshold q{sub c}. The epidemic will survive when q > q{sub c} and die when q < q{sub c}. These results can help understanding the impacts of human travel on the epidemic spreading in complex networks with community structure.

  10. Epidemic spread in bipartite network by considering risk awareness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, She; Sun, Mei; Ampimah, Benjamin Chris; Han, Dun

    2018-02-01

    Human awareness plays an important role in the spread of infectious diseases and the control of propagation patterns. Exploring the interplay between human awareness and epidemic spreading is a topic that has been receiving increasing attention. Considering the fact, some well-known diseases only spread between different species we propose a theoretical analysis of the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) epidemic spread from the perspective of bipartite network and risk aversion. Using mean field theory, the epidemic threshold is calculated theoretically. Simulation results are consistent with the proposed analytic model. The results show that, the final infection density is negative linear with the value of individuals' risk awareness. Therefore, the epidemic spread could be effectively suppressed by improving individuals' risk awareness.

  11. The effect of awareness on networked SIS epidemics

    KAUST Repository

    Paarporn, Keith; Eksin, Ceyhun; Weitz, Joshua S.; Shamma, Jeff S.

    2017-01-01

    the epidemic is currently prevalent. An agent's awareness is weighted from three sources of information: the fraction of infected neighbors in their contact network, their social network, and a global broadcast of the fraction of infected nodes in the entire

  12. Stochastic population and epidemic models persistence and extinction

    CERN Document Server

    Allen, Linda J S

    2015-01-01

    This monograph provides a summary of the basic theory of branching processes for single-type and multi-type processes. Classic examples of population and epidemic models illustrate the probability of population or epidemic extinction obtained from the theory of branching processes. The first chapter develops the branching process theory, while in the second chapter two applications to population and epidemic processes of single-type branching process theory are explored. The last two chapters present multi-type branching process applications to epidemic models, and then continuous-time and continuous-state branching processes with applications. In addition, several MATLAB programs for simulating stochastic sample paths  are provided in an Appendix. These notes originated as part of a lecture series on Stochastics in Biological Systems at the Mathematical Biosciences Institute in Ohio, USA. Professor Linda Allen is a Paul Whitfield Horn Professor of Mathematics in the Department of Mathematics and Statistics ...

  13. Drought and Epidemic Typhus, Central Mexico, 1655–1918

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acuna-Soto, Rudofo; Stahle, David W.

    2014-01-01

    Epidemic typhus is an infectious disease caused by the bacterium Rickettsia prowazekii and transmitted by body lice (Pediculus humanus corporis). This disease occurs where conditions are crowded and unsanitary. This disease accompanied war, famine, and poverty for centuries. Historical and proxy climate data indicate that drought was a major factor in the development of typhus epidemics in Mexico during 1655–1918. Evidence was found for 22 large typhus epidemics in central Mexico, and tree-ring chronologies were used to reconstruct moisture levels over central Mexico for the past 500 years. Below-average tree growth, reconstructed drought, and low crop yields occurred during 19 of these 22 typhus epidemics. Historical documents describe how drought created large numbers of environmental refugees that fled the famine-stricken countryside for food relief in towns. These refugees often ended up in improvised shelters in which crowding encouraged conditions necessary for spread of typhus. PMID:24564928

  14. [Hippocrates. Aphorisms and Epidemics III. Two clinical texts].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frøland, Anders

    2015-01-01

    The two Hippocratic texts, Aphorisms and Epidemics III, have not been translated into Danish previously. The Aphorisms are 412 short, pithy statements, mostly on the prognosis in relation to certain symptoms in the course of the diseases, very often febrile. The Aphorisms begin with the famous words: "Life is short, the Art long, opportunity fleeting, experiment treacherous, judgment difficult." (Transl. W H S Jones [22]). Epidemics III consists of 28 case histories, again mostly of febrile patients, but also of observations on the connection of the seasons with general morbidity and mortality. The author describes an epidemic, which in some respects resembles Thucydides' report on the plague in Athens in 430 BC. It is suggested, that observations as have been recorded in the seven Hippocratic texts on epidemic diseases are the material on which prognostic statements as those collected in the Aphorisms are founded.

  15. 2,500-year Evolution of the Term Epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin-Granel, Estelle

    2006-01-01

    The term epidemic (from the Greek epi [on] plus demos [people]), first used by Homer, took its medical meaning when Hippocrates used it as the title of one of his famous treatises. At that time, epidemic was the name given to a collection of clinical syndromes, such as coughs or diarrheas, occurring and propagating in a given period at a given location. Over centuries, the form and meaning of the term have changed. Successive epidemics of plague in the Middle Ages contributed to the definition of an epidemic as the propagation of a single, well-defined disease. The meaning of the term continued to evolve in the 19th-century era of microbiology. Its most recent semantic evolution dates from the last quarter of the 20th century, and this evolution is likely to continue in the future. PMID:16707055

  16. History of the HIV epidemic and response in Swaziland

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    that self-stigma, multiple concurrent partnerships and short-term relationships, decision on condom use and ... This prevents MSM from seeking health services. To .... 90-90-90: An ambitious treatment target to help end the AIDS epidemic.

  17. Epidemic cholera in Latin America: spread and routes of transmission.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guthmann, J P

    1995-12-01

    In the most recent epidemic of cholera in Latin America, nearly a million cases were reported and almost 9000 people died between January 1991 and December 1993. The epidemic spread rapidly from country to country, affecting in three years all the countries of Latin America except Uruguay and the Caribbean. Case-control studies carried out in Peru showed a significant association between drinking water and risk of disease. Cholera was associated with the consumption of unwashed fruit and vegetables, with eating food from street vendors and with contaminated crabmeat transported in travellers' luggage. This article documents the spread of the epidemic and its routes of transmission and discusses whether the introduction of the epidemic to Peru and its subsequent spread throughout the continent could have been prevented.

  18. Epidemic spread over networks with agent awareness and social distancing

    KAUST Repository

    Paarporn, Keith; Eksin, Ceyhun; Weitz, Joshua S.; Shamma, Jeff S.

    2016-01-01

    with their neighbors (social distancing) when they believe the epidemic is currently prevalent or resume normal interactions when they believe there is low risk of becoming infected. The information is a weighted combination of three sources: 1) the average states

  19. Context analysis for epidemic control in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huizer, Y.L.; Kraaij-Dirkzwager, M.M.; Timen, A.; Schuitmaker-Warnaar, T.J.; van Steenbergen, J.E.

    2014-01-01

    When epidemics occur, experts advise the Ministries on effective control measures. There is uncertainty in the translation of epidemiological evidence into effective outbreak management interventions, due to contradicatory problem perspectives, diverse interests and time pressure. Several models

  20. INTRODUCTION The global HIV epidemic continues to expand with ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    maybe potentially dangerous in low resource settings.6. Women infected with ... The HIV epidemic in children parallels that among women on account of perinatal ... unknown.14, 15 Immune suppression resulting from general anaesthetics ...

  1. Dynamics of epidemic diseases on a growing adaptive network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demirel, Güven; Barter, Edmund; Gross, Thilo

    2017-02-10

    The study of epidemics on static networks has revealed important effects on disease prevalence of network topological features such as the variance of the degree distribution, i.e. the distribution of the number of neighbors of nodes, and the maximum degree. Here, we analyze an adaptive network where the degree distribution is not independent of epidemics but is shaped through disease-induced dynamics and mortality in a complex interplay. We study the dynamics of a network that grows according to a preferential attachment rule, while nodes are simultaneously removed from the network due to disease-induced mortality. We investigate the prevalence of the disease using individual-based simulations and a heterogeneous node approximation. Our results suggest that in this system in the thermodynamic limit no epidemic thresholds exist, while the interplay between network growth and epidemic spreading leads to exponential networks for any finite rate of infectiousness when the disease persists.

  2. Epidemic spreading on random surfer networks with infected avoidance strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Yun; Ding, Li; Huang, Yun-Han; Guan, Zhi-Hong

    2016-12-01

    In this paper, we study epidemic spreading on random surfer networks with infected avoidance (IA) strategy. In particular, we consider that susceptible individuals’ moving direction angles are affected by the current location information received from infected individuals through a directed information network. The model is mainly analyzed by discrete-time numerical simulations. The results indicate that the IA strategy can restrain epidemic spreading effectively. However, when long-distance jumps of individuals exist, the IA strategy’s effectiveness on restraining epidemic spreading is heavily reduced. Finally, it is found that the influence of the noises from information transferring process on epidemic spreading is indistinctive. Project supported in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 61403284, 61272114, 61673303, and 61672112) and the Marine Renewable Energy Special Fund Project of the State Oceanic Administration of China (Grant No. GHME2013JS01).

  3. Risk from the frontlines of a hidden epidemic sexuality, masculinities ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Risk from the frontlines of a hidden epidemic sexuality, masculinities and social pressures ... It frames risk in the context of the dynamics governing sexuality, underlined ... MSM risk and practice, in these contexts, are consequently shaped by ...

  4. Hybrid epidemics--a case study on computer worm conficker.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Changwang Zhang

    Full Text Available Conficker is a computer worm that erupted on the Internet in 2008. It is unique in combining three different spreading strategies: local probing, neighbourhood probing, and global probing. We propose a mathematical model that combines three modes of spreading: local, neighbourhood, and global, to capture the worm's spreading behaviour. The parameters of the model are inferred directly from network data obtained during the first day of the Conficker epidemic. The model is then used to explore the tradeoff between spreading modes in determining the worm's effectiveness. Our results show that the Conficker epidemic is an example of a critically hybrid epidemic, in which the different modes of spreading in isolation do not lead to successful epidemics. Such hybrid spreading strategies may be used beneficially to provide the most effective strategies for promulgating information across a large population. When used maliciously, however, they can present a dangerous challenge to current internet security protocols.

  5. Hybrid epidemics--a case study on computer worm conficker.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Changwang; Zhou, Shi; Chain, Benjamin M

    2015-01-01

    Conficker is a computer worm that erupted on the Internet in 2008. It is unique in combining three different spreading strategies: local probing, neighbourhood probing, and global probing. We propose a mathematical model that combines three modes of spreading: local, neighbourhood, and global, to capture the worm's spreading behaviour. The parameters of the model are inferred directly from network data obtained during the first day of the Conficker epidemic. The model is then used to explore the tradeoff between spreading modes in determining the worm's effectiveness. Our results show that the Conficker epidemic is an example of a critically hybrid epidemic, in which the different modes of spreading in isolation do not lead to successful epidemics. Such hybrid spreading strategies may be used beneficially to provide the most effective strategies for promulgating information across a large population. When used maliciously, however, they can present a dangerous challenge to current internet security protocols.

  6. Epidemic transmission on random mobile network with diverse infection periods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Kezan; Yu, Hong; Zeng, Zhaorong; Ding, Yong; Ma, Zhongjun

    2015-05-01

    The heterogeneity of individual susceptibility and infectivity and time-varying topological structure are two realistic factors when we study epidemics on complex networks. Current research results have shown that the heterogeneity of individual susceptibility and infectivity can increase the epidemic threshold in a random mobile dynamical network with the same infection period. In this paper, we will focus on random mobile dynamical networks with diverse infection periods due to people's different constitutions and external circumstances. Theoretical results indicate that the epidemic threshold of the random mobile network with diverse infection periods is larger than the counterpart with the same infection period. Moreover, the heterogeneity of individual susceptibility and infectivity can play a significant impact on disease transmission. In particular, the homogeneity of individuals will avail to the spreading of epidemics. Numerical examples verify further our theoretical results very well.

  7. Multidimensional epidemic thresholds in diffusion processes over interdependent networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salehi, Mostafa; Siyari, Payam; Magnani, Matteo; Montesi, Danilo

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: •We propose a new concept of multidimensional epidemic threshold for interdependent networks. •We analytically derive and numerically illustrate the conditions for multilayer epidemics. •We study the evolution of infection density and diffusion dynamics. -- Abstract: Several systems can be modeled as sets of interdependent networks where each network contains distinct nodes. Diffusion processes like the spreading of a disease or the propagation of information constitute fundamental phenomena occurring over such coupled networks. In this paper we propose a new concept of multidimensional epidemic threshold characterizing diffusion processes over interdependent networks, allowing different diffusion rates on the different networks and arbitrary degree distributions. We analytically derive and numerically illustrate the conditions for multilayer epidemics, i.e., the appearance of a giant connected component spanning all the networks. Furthermore, we study the evolution of infection density and diffusion dynamics with extensive simulation experiments on synthetic and real networks

  8. Underrecognition of Dengue during 2013 Epidemic in Luanda, Angola.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharp, Tyler M; Moreira, Rosa; Soares, Maria José; Miguel da Costa, Lúis; Mann, Jennifer; DeLorey, Mark; Hunsperger, Elizabeth; Muñoz-Jordán, Jorge L; Colón, Candimar; Margolis, Harold S; de Caravalho, Adelaide; Tomashek, Kay M

    2015-08-01

    During the 2013 dengue epidemic in Luanda, Angola, 811 dengue rapid diagnostic test-positive cases were reported to the Ministry of Health. To better understand the magnitude of the epidemic and identify risk factors for dengue virus (DENV) infection, we conducted cluster surveys around households of case-patients and randomly selected households 6 weeks after the peak of the epidemic. Of 173 case cluster participants, 16 (9%) exhibited evidence of recent DENV infection. Of 247 random cluster participants, 25 (10%) had evidence of recent DENV infection. Of 13 recently infected participants who had a recent febrile illness, 7 (54%) had sought medical care, and 1 (14%) was hospitalized with symptoms consistent with severe dengue; however, none received a diagnosis of dengue. Behavior associated with protection from DENV infection included recent use of mosquito repellent or a bed net. These findings suggest that the 2013 dengue epidemic was larger than indicated by passive surveillance data.

  9. Epidemic spreading in time-varying community networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ren, Guangming; Wang, Xingyuan

    2014-01-01

    The spreading processes of many infectious diseases have comparable time scale as the network evolution. Here, we present a simple networks model with time-varying community structure, and investigate susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic spreading processes in this model. By both theoretic analysis and numerical simulations, we show that the efficiency of epidemic spreading in this model depends intensively on the mobility rate q of the individuals among communities. We also find that there exists a mobility rate threshold q c . The epidemic will survive when q > q c and die when q  c . These results can help understanding the impacts of human travel on the epidemic spreading in complex networks with community structure

  10. Predicting and controlling infectious disease epidemics using temporal networks

    OpenAIRE

    Masuda, Naoki; Holme, Petter

    2013-01-01

    Infectious diseases can be considered to spread over social networks of people or animals. Mainly owing to the development of data recording and analysis techniques, an increasing amount of social contact data with time stamps has been collected in the last decade. Such temporal data capture the dynamics of social networks on a timescale relevant to epidemic spreading and can potentially lead to better ways to analyze, forecast, and prevent epidemics. However, they also call for extended anal...

  11. Community Size Effects on Epidemic Spreading in Multiplex Social Networks

    OpenAIRE

    Liu, Ting; Li, Ping; Chen, Yan; Zhang, Jie

    2016-01-01

    The dynamical process of epidemic spreading has drawn much attention of the complex network community. In the network paradigm, diseases spread from one person to another through the social ties amongst the population. There are a variety of factors that govern the processes of disease spreading on the networks. A common but not negligible factor is people's reaction to the outbreak of epidemics. Such reaction can be related information dissemination or self-protection. In this work, we explo...

  12. Dynamical interplay between awareness and epidemic spreading in multiplex networks

    OpenAIRE

    Granell, Clara; Gomez, Sergio; Arenas, Alex

    2013-01-01

    We present the analysis of the interrelation between two processes accounting for the spreading of an epidemics, and the information awareness to prevent its infection, on top of multiplex networks. This scenario is representative of an epidemic process spreading on a network of persistent real contacts, and a cyclic information awareness process diffusing in the network of virtual social contacts between the same individuals. The topology corresponds to a multiplex network where two diffusiv...

  13. Predicting Subnational Ebola Virus Disease Epidemic Dynamics from Sociodemographic Indicators.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Linda Valeri

    Full Text Available The recent Ebola virus disease (EVD outbreak in West Africa has spread wider than any previous human EVD epidemic. While individual-level risk factors that contribute to the spread of EVD have been studied, the population-level attributes of subnational regions associated with outbreak severity have not yet been considered.To investigate the area-level predictors of EVD dynamics, we integrated time series data on cumulative reported cases of EVD from the World Health Organization and covariate data from the Demographic and Health Surveys. We first estimated the early growth rates of epidemics in each second-level administrative district (ADM2 in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia using exponential, logistic and polynomial growth models. We then evaluated how these growth rates, as well as epidemic size within ADM2s, were ecologically associated with several demographic and socio-economic characteristics of the ADM2, using bivariate correlations and multivariable regression models.The polynomial growth model appeared to best fit the ADM2 epidemic curves, displaying the lowest residual standard error. Each outcome was associated with various regional characteristics in bivariate models, however in stepwise multivariable models only mean education levels were consistently associated with a worse local epidemic.By combining two common methods-estimation of epidemic parameters using mathematical models, and estimation of associations using ecological regression models-we identified some factors predicting rapid and severe EVD epidemics in West African subnational regions. While care should be taken interpreting such results as anything more than correlational, we suggest that our approach of using data sources that were publicly available in advance of the epidemic or in real-time provides an analytic framework that may assist countries in understanding the dynamics of future outbreaks as they occur.

  14. Engaging 'communities': anthropological insights from the West African Ebola epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilkinson, A; Parker, M; Martineau, F; Leach, M

    2017-05-26

    The recent Ebola epidemic in West Africa highlights how engaging with the sociocultural dimensions of epidemics is critical to mounting an effective outbreak response. Community engagement was pivotal to ending the epidemic and will be to post-Ebola recovery, health system strengthening and future epidemic preparedness and response. Extensive literatures in the social sciences have emphasized how simple notions of community, which project solidarity onto complex hierarchies and politics, can lead to ineffective policies and unintended consequences at the local level, including doing harm to vulnerable populations. This article reflects on the nature of community engagement during the Ebola epidemic and demonstrates a disjuncture between local realities and what is being imagined in post-Ebola reports about the lessons that need to be learned for the future. We argue that to achieve stated aims of building trust and strengthening outbreak response and health systems, public health institutions need to reorientate their conceptualization of 'the community' and develop ways of working which take complex social and political relationships into account.This article is part of the themed issue 'The 2013-2016 West African Ebola epidemic: data, decision-making and disease control'. © 2017 The Authors.

  15. A simple model for behaviour change in epidemics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brauer Fred

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background People change their behaviour during an epidemic. Infectious members of a population may reduce the number of contacts they make with other people because of the physical effects of their illness and possibly because of public health announcements asking them to do so in order to decrease the number of new infections, while susceptible members of the population may reduce the number of contacts they make in order to try to avoid becoming infected. Methods We consider a simple epidemic model in which susceptible and infectious members respond to a disease outbreak by reducing contacts by different fractions and analyze the effect of such contact reductions on the size of the epidemic. We assume constant fractional reductions, without attempting to consider the way in which susceptible members might respond to information about the epidemic. Results We are able to derive upper and lower bounds for the final size of an epidemic, both for simple and staged progression models. Conclusions The responses of uninfected and infected individuals in a disease outbreak are different, and this difference affects estimates of epidemic size.

  16. Effects of epidemic threshold definition on disease spread statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lagorio, C.; Migueles, M. V.; Braunstein, L. A.; López, E.; Macri, P. A.

    2009-03-01

    We study the statistical properties of SIR epidemics in random networks, when an epidemic is defined as only those SIR propagations that reach or exceed a minimum size sc. Using percolation theory to calculate the average fractional size of an epidemic, we find that the strength of the spanning link percolation cluster P∞ is an upper bound to . For small values of sc, P∞ is no longer a good approximation, and the average fractional size has to be computed directly. We find that the choice of sc is generally (but not always) guided by the network structure and the value of T of the disease in question. If the goal is to always obtain P∞ as the average epidemic size, one should choose sc to be the typical size of the largest percolation cluster at the critical percolation threshold for the transmissibility. We also study Q, the probability that an SIR propagation reaches the epidemic mass sc, and find that it is well characterized by percolation theory. We apply our results to real networks (DIMES and Tracerouter) to measure the consequences of the choice sc on predictions of average outcome sizes of computer failure epidemics.

  17. Parasite transmission in social interacting hosts: Monogenean epidemics in guppies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Mirelle B.; Lafferty, Kevin D.; van Oosterhout, Cock; Cable, Joanne

    2011-01-01

    Background Infection incidence increases with the average number of contacts between susceptible and infected individuals. Contact rates are normally assumed to increase linearly with host density. However, social species seek out each other at low density and saturate their contact rates at high densities. Although predicting epidemic behaviour requires knowing how contact rates scale with host density, few empirical studies have investigated the effect of host density. Also, most theory assumes each host has an equal probability of transmitting parasites, even though individual parasite load and infection duration can vary. To our knowledge, the relative importance of characteristics of the primary infected host vs. the susceptible population has never been tested experimentally. Methodology/Principal Findings Here, we examine epidemics using a common ectoparasite, Gyrodactylus turnbulli infecting its guppy host (Poecilia reticulata). Hosts were maintained at different densities (3, 6, 12 and 24 fish in 40 L aquaria), and we monitored gyrodactylids both at a population and individual host level. Although parasite population size increased with host density, the probability of an epidemic did not. Epidemics were more likely when the primary infected fish had a high mean intensity and duration of infection. Epidemics only occurred if the primary infected host experienced more than 23 worm days. Female guppies contracted infections sooner than males, probably because females have a higher propensity for shoaling. Conclusions/Significance These findings suggest that in social hosts like guppies, the frequency of social contact largely governs disease epidemics independent of host density.

  18. THE DEMOCRATIC CONTROL OF MILITARY FORCES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Smail Oštraković

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available The transition requirement for post communism countries, especially the part that is about military forces is to establish those civil-military relation that will have prepared projects for awareness evolving of society and military about necessity of democratic control over military sector of country through development of many different communication forms and shapes. Before everything, it means the entire freedom and independence of media at access to military forces as the topic and subject of its interests and also the organization of public military communication system as integral part of information-communication system in society

  19. Desafios iminentes para projetos de formação de profissionais para educação infantil Child education professionals: imminent challenges for training projects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Lucia de A. Machado

    2000-07-01

    Full Text Available O propósito deste texto é o de apontar desafios iminentes para formuladores e implementadores de projetos de formação de profissionais para educação infantil a partir de duas das várias vertentes que os subsidiam. Aborda-se inicialmente um conjunto de fatores que configura o contexto atual brasileiro no qual os projetos se realizam. Em seguida, trata-se da concepção de crescimento e desenvolvimento infantil da qual decorre o desafio de integrar o enfoque cuidar/educar à ênfase numa pedagogia calcada nas interações de crianças e adultos, resultando em temas específicos de formação. Sabendo da força com que um modelo de escolarização caricato vem se difundindo nas instituições de atendimento a crianças de 0 a 6 anos, outro dos desafios que se coloca aos projetos de formação é o de formar profissionais aptos a integrarem-se aos sistemas educacionais e, simultaneamente, atuarem em modalidades de atendimento sustentados em aportes teóricos fundamentados de modo consistente nas necessidades e características de crescimento e desenvolvimento de bebês e crianças pequenas.The premise of this text is to point out the imminent challenges for those who formulate and implement training projects for child education professionals, based on two of the several currents which support them. The first includes the group of factors that make up the present Brazilian context in which projects are undertaken. The second, treats the conception of growth and child development from which comes the challenge to integrate the focus care/education, emphasizing a pedagogy based in child adult interaction, resulting in specific training themes. Knowing of the force with which a caricatured model of schooling has been disseminated in the institutions that care for children from birth to 6 years of age, another challenge put to training projects is to form professionals able to integrate themselves into the educational systems and simultaneously to

  20. Russia is on brink of AIDS epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ingram, M

    1996-08-03

    Russia, and in particular Moscow, is on the brink of an AIDS epidemic, the president of the Russian Medical Academy told doctors gathered in Moscow for a national AIDS seminar. Although Russia has officially registered only 1269 cases of HIV infection, a quarter of them in Moscow, and 193 deaths since the first case appeared in Russia in 1987, health officials are alarmed by the recent rise in the rate of infection. In 1995, 200 new cases were registered, but 205 cases had already been registered in the first 6 months of 1996. The rapid spread of intravenous drug use is the main factor contributing to the rise in HIV infection. According to the head of the Russian AIDS Center, the real number of people infected with HIV in Russia is 3-4 times higher than official numbers, while AIDS activists believe that the real figure is 10-20 times higher. Russia has traditionally blamed its AIDS problem on foreigners and introduced an obligatory HIV test as a visa requirement for long-term visitors. Now neighboring Ukraine and Belarus are being blamed for the latest crisis. Of 1000 known intravenous drug users tested in Svetlogorsk, Belarus, 158 are HIV positive, with 20 results still outstanding. Previously, only 130 people in Belarus were known to be infected with HIV. In the Ukraine, where HIV testing has shown that over 5000 people are HIV positive and where a further 20,000 are estimated to be infected, a special subtype of HIV-1 has been discovered. In 1995 there were 1021 new cases of HIV infection, but in the first 4 months of this year there were 1805 new cases. Although the chief AIDS specialist at Russia's health ministry agrees that health education is more important than scare tactics against foreigners, in 1995 the health ministry received only 49% of the funds allocated for national AIDS education.

  1. Evidence from epidemic appraisals in Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Idoteyin O. Ezirim

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Although HIV prevalence has increased in most-at-risk populations (MARPs across Nigeria, effective programming was difficult because Nigeria lacked information for prevention programmes to target interventions that maximise coverage and cost effectiveness. Epidemic appraisals (EA were conducted in eight states to provide evidence for the planning, implementation and co-ordination of prevention interventions. Component 1: Mapping determined the size, typology and locations of MARPs. Component 2: Venue profiling identified and profiled venues where general populations engaged in high-risk behaviours. Component 3: Rural appraisals provided insights into risk behaviours and sexual networking in villages. States used mapping results to prioritise areas with a MARP coverage of 70% – 80% and then scale up interventions for non-brothel-based female sex workers (FSWs instead of focusing on brothel-based FSWs. The eight states prioritisedf unding for the high-coverage areas to ensure a minimum coverage level of 70% – 80% of MARPs was reached. The refocused resources led to cost efficiencies. Applying venue profiling results, six states implemented interventions at bars and night clubs – previously not covered. States also maximised intervention coverage for high-risk general populations; this led to the use of resources for general population interventions in a focused way rather than across an entire state. States focused on condom programmes in rural areas. EA results provided the evidence for focusing interventions for high MARP coverage as well as forhigh-risk general populations. The states applied the results and rapidly refocused their interventions, increasing the likelihood of having an impact on HIV transmission in those states. Nigeria is now implementing EAs in the remaining 29 states to effect national-level impact.

  2. Building partnerships to address the HIV epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chua, A C; Leo, Y S; Lee, C C

    2008-05-01

    Batam is one of the islands comprising the Riau Province in Indonesia, and is closest to Singapore. It is a popular destination of many Singaporeans. Surveillance reports among commercial sex workers conducted in Batam showed the prevalence rate of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is 16.2 percent. At the end of 2006, the total number of HIV-infected Singaporeans was 3,060, the majority being infected via heterosexual transmission. The aim of the Indonesian government is to rapidly scale up HIV treatment to those needing it. One of the factors critical to the rapid scale-up is healthcare worker training. An intersectoral collaboration addressing the issue of HIV care and treatment with a hospital in Batam was created. The first activity of the collaboration was a two-day HIV training course conducted in February 2007. The aim of the course was to provide a basic understanding of HIV, as well as knowledge on common opportunistic infections that may present to a general hospital or clinical setting. 34 doctors from 23 institutions in Batam and three doctors from two hospitals in the Riau Islands attended the two-day HIV training course. The participants found the training very useful and highly relevant. This first HIV training provided a foundation to build on further HIV education. It is our belief that through the HIV training programme, there will be more awareness of HIV among the various medical institutions in Batam. As the HIV epidemic knows no borders, working with neighbouring countries is one strategy that deserves attention.

  3. Ongoing dengue epidemic - Angola, June 2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-06-21

    On April 1, 2013, the Public Health Directorate of Angola announced that six cases of dengue had been reported to the Ministry of Health of Angola (MHA). As of May 31, a total of 517 suspected dengue cases had been reported and tested for dengue with a rapid diagnostic test (RDT). A total of 313 (60.5%) specimens tested positive for dengue, including one from a patient who died. All suspected cases were reported from Luanda Province, except for two from Malanje Province. Confirmatory diagnostic testing of 49 specimens (43 RDT-positive and six RDT-negative) at the CDC Dengue Branch confirmed dengue virus (DENV) infection in 100% of the RDT-positive specimens and 50% of the RDT-negative specimens. Only DENV-1 was detected by molecular diagnostic testing. Phylogenetic analysis indicated this virus has been circulating in the region since at least 1968, strongly suggesting that dengue is endemic in Angola. Health-care professionals throughout Angola should be aware of the ongoing epidemic, the recommended practices for clinical management of dengue patients, and the need to report cases to MHA. Persons in Angola should seek medical care for acute febrile illness to reduce the risk for developing complications. Laboratory-confirmed dengue also has been reported from seven countries on four continents among persons who had recently traveled to Luanda, including 79 persons from Portugal. Angola is the third of four African countries to report a dengue outbreak in 2013. Persons returning from Africa with acute febrile illness should seek medical care, including testing for DENV infection, and suspected cases should be reported to public health authorities.

  4. Multiple enteropathogenic viruses in a gastroenteritis outbreak in a military exercise of the Portuguese Army.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopes-João, António; Costa, Inês; Mesquita, João R; Oleastro, Mónica; Penha-Gonçalves, Carlos; Nascimento, Maria S J

    2015-07-01

    Gastroenteritis is one of the most common infectious diseases in the military populations and can diminish operational effectiveness and impede force readiness. The present study investigates the cause and the source of an acute gastroenteritis outbreak that occurred during a military exercise of the Portuguese Army, in February 2013. A retrospective investigation was performed and stool samples, food items and water were screened for common foodborne bacteria and viruses, namely Norovirus GI, Norovirus GII, Astrovirus, Rotavirus, Adenovirus and Sapovirus. From the total of 160 soldiers that participated in the military exercise 20 developed gastroenteritis (attack rate of 12.5%). Symptoms were predominantly vomiting (n=17, 85%) and diarrhoea (n=9, 45%). The first cases occurred 24-48h after drinking water from the creek, the plausible origin of the outbreak. The epidemic peak was registered 2 days after and the last cases 6 days after, upon returning to base. No pathogenic bacteria were found in stools however virological analysis revealed the presence of multiple enteropathogenic viruses, namely Norovirus GI (GI.3), Norovirus GII (GII.4 New Orleans 2009), Astrovirus and Sapovirus, as single or co-infections. Food and water samples were not tested for the presence of viruses due to exhaustion of samples on bacteriological analysis. To the best of our knowledge this is the first report of a viral gastroenteritis outbreak among military personnel in the Portuguese Army. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. "Polite People" and Military Meekness: the Attributes of Military Ethics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pavel V. Didov

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The article analyzes the phenomenon of "polite people" from the point of view of the history and theory of ethical thought. Identify and specify ethical principles that form the basis of military courtesy. On the basis of the revealed regularities, the study proves that ethics is impossible without a certain power attributes, which constitute its core. In relation to the traditions of Russian warriors revealed the key role to their formation of the Orthodox ethics and the military of meekness. The obtained results can serve as material for educational activities for the formation of fighting spirit.

  6. 78 FR 5717 - Safety Zone; Military Ocean Terminal Concord Safety Zone, Suisun Bay, Military Ocean Terminal...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-28

    ...-AA00 Safety Zone; Military Ocean Terminal Concord Safety Zone, Suisun Bay, Military Ocean Terminal... Guard is establishing a safety zone in the navigable waters of Suisun Bay near Military Ocean Terminal Concord, CA in support of military onload and offload operations. This safety zone is established to...

  7. 14 CFR 65.117 - Military riggers or former military riggers: Special certification rule.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Military riggers or former military riggers: Special certification rule. 65.117 Section 65.117 Aeronautics and Space FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION... Riggers § 65.117 Military riggers or former military riggers: Special certification rule. In place of the...

  8. Youth Attitudes Toward the Military: Poll One

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Bailey, Robert

    2002-01-01

    ...%). Only 4 percent of youth volunteered that they might be joining the military. Overall, youth mentioned family, friends and acquaintances, and movies and television most often as influencing their impression of the military...

  9. Making IT Happen: Transforming Military Information Technology

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Mait, Joseph N

    2005-01-01

    .... This report is a primer for commercial providers to gain some understanding of the military's thinking about military information technology and some of the programs it foresees for the future...

  10. Military Transformation: Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Chizek, Judy G

    2003-01-01

    .... As the military services attempt to increase the agility and versatility of their weapon systems, they also see a need to increase the capabilities of military intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR...

  11. Jewish Culture and the American Military

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Goldberg, Adam M

    2006-01-01

    This study explores the Jewish experience within the American military. The history of military service by persons of the Jewish faith corresponds roughly to that of persons from many other ethnic or religious groups...

  12. Information Management: Military Affiliate Radio System (MARS)

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    1986-01-01

    .... It describes a program sponsored by the Department of Defense and supported by the Department of the Army in which military installations, military units, clubs, and volunteer licensed amateur radio...

  13. USSR Report Military Affairs No. 1790

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    1983-01-01

    Partial Contents: Military Political Issues, Ministry Of Defense and General Staff, Warsaw Pact and Groups of FOrces, Armed Forces, Ground Forces, Air Defense Forces, Naval Forces, Civil Defense, DOSAAF and Military...

  14. Committee on Military Nutrition Research Proposal

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Poos, Mary

    1999-01-01

    This publication, Military Sfrategies for Sustainment of Nufrition and Immune Function in the Field, is the latest in a series of reports based on workshops sponsored by the Committee on Military Nutrition Research (CMNR...

  15. MILITARY LAW PRACTITIONERS AND ACADEMIC DISCOURSE: A ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    the various security forces, policy reviews and the introduction of a human ...... Military legal practitioners must become experts in the land, air, maritime and cyber- ... private military companies, non-governmental organisations, transnational.

  16. Military Medical Care: Questions and Answers

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Best Jr, Richard A

    2008-01-01

    ... carry out their military missions, and to be prepared to deliver health care during wartime. The military health system also provides, where space is available, health care services in Department of Defense (DOD...

  17. Could the Recent Zika Epidemic Have Been Predicted?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ángel G. Muñoz

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Given knowledge at the time, the recent 2015–2016 zika virus (ZIKV epidemic probably could not have been predicted. Without the prior knowledge of ZIKV being already present in South America, and given the lack of understanding of key epidemiologic processes and long-term records of ZIKV cases in the continent, the best related prediction could be carried out for the potential risk of a generic Aedes-borne disease epidemic. Here we use a recently published two-vector basic reproduction number model to assess the predictability of the conditions conducive to epidemics of diseases like zika, chikungunya, or dengue, transmitted by the independent or concurrent presence of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. We compare the potential risk of transmission forcing the model with the observed climate and with state-of-the-art operational forecasts from the North American Multi Model Ensemble (NMME, finding that the predictive skill of this new seasonal forecast system is highest for multiple countries in Latin America and the Caribbean during the December-February and March-May seasons, and slightly lower—but still of potential use to decision-makers—for the rest of the year. In particular, we find that above-normal suitable conditions for the occurrence of the zika epidemic at the beginning of 2015 could have been successfully predicted at least 1 month in advance for several zika hotspots, and in particular for Northeast Brazil: the heart of the epidemic. Nonetheless, the initiation and spread of an epidemic depends on the effect of multiple factors beyond climate conditions, and thus this type of approach must be considered as a guide and not as a formal predictive tool of vector-borne epidemics.

  18. Could the Recent Zika Epidemic Have Been Predicted?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vecchi, G. A.; Munoz, A. G.; Thomson, M. C.; Stewart-Ibarra, A. M.; Chourio, X.; Nájera, P.; Moran, Z.; Yang, X.

    2017-12-01

    Given knowledge at the time, the recent 2015-2016 zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic probably could not have been predicted. Without the prior knowledge of ZIKV being already present in South America, and given the lack of understanding of key epidemiologic processes and long-term records of ZIKV cases in the continent, the best related prediction could be carried out for the potential risk of a generic Aedes-borne disease epidemic. Here we use a recently published two-vector basic reproduction number model to assess the predictability of the conditions conducive to epidemics of diseases like zika, chikungunya, or dengue, transmitted by the independent or concurrent presence of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. We compare the potential risk of transmission forcing the model with the observed climate and with state-of-the-art operational forecasts from the North American Multi Model Ensemble (NMME), finding that the predictive skill of this new seasonal forecast system is highest for multiple countries in Latin America and the Caribbean during the December-February and March-May seasons, and slightly lower—but still of potential use to decision-makers—for the rest of the year. In particular, we find that above-normal suitable conditions for the occurrence of the zika epidemic at the beginning of 2015 could have been successfully predicted at least 1 month in advance for several zika hotspots, and in particular for Northeast Brazil: the heart of the epidemic. Nonetheless, the initiation and spread of an epidemic depends on the effect of multiple factors beyond climate conditions, and thus this type of approach must be considered as a guide and not as a formal predictive tool of vector-borne epidemics.

  19. Flexible Modeling of Epidemics with an Empirical Bayes Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brooks, Logan C.; Farrow, David C.; Hyun, Sangwon; Tibshirani, Ryan J.; Rosenfeld, Roni

    2015-01-01

    Seasonal influenza epidemics cause consistent, considerable, widespread loss annually in terms of economic burden, morbidity, and mortality. With access to accurate and reliable forecasts of a current or upcoming influenza epidemic’s behavior, policy makers can design and implement more effective countermeasures. This past year, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention hosted the “Predict the Influenza Season Challenge”, with the task of predicting key epidemiological measures for the 2013–2014 U.S. influenza season with the help of digital surveillance data. We developed a framework for in-season forecasts of epidemics using a semiparametric Empirical Bayes framework, and applied it to predict the weekly percentage of outpatient doctors visits for influenza-like illness, and the season onset, duration, peak time, and peak height, with and without using Google Flu Trends data. Previous work on epidemic modeling has focused on developing mechanistic models of disease behavior and applying time series tools to explain historical data. However, tailoring these models to certain types of surveillance data can be challenging, and overly complex models with many parameters can compromise forecasting ability. Our approach instead produces possibilities for the epidemic curve of the season of interest using modified versions of data from previous seasons, allowing for reasonable variations in the timing, pace, and intensity of the seasonal epidemics, as well as noise in observations. Since the framework does not make strict domain-specific assumptions, it can easily be applied to some other diseases with seasonal epidemics. This method produces a complete posterior distribution over epidemic curves, rather than, for example, solely point predictions of forecasting targets. We report prospective influenza-like-illness forecasts made for the 2013–2014 U.S. influenza season, and compare the framework’s cross-validated prediction error on historical data to

  20. Is the New Heroin Epidemic Really New? Racializing Heroin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowser, Benjamin; Fullilove, Robert; Word, Carl

    2017-01-01

    Heroin abuse as an outcome of the prior use of painkillers increased rapidly over the past decade. This "new epidemic" is unique because the new heroin users are primarily young White Americans in rural areas of virtually every state. This commentary argues that the painkiller-to-heroin transition could not be the only cause of heroin use on such a scale and that the new and old heroin epidemics are linked. The social marketing that so successfully drove the old heroin epidemic has innovated and expanded due to the use of cell-phones, text messaging and the "dark web" which requires a Tor browser, and software that allows one to communicate with encrypted sites without detection. Central city gentrification has forced traffickers to take advantage of larger and more lucrative markets. A second outcome is that urban black and Latino communities are no longer needed as heroin stages areas for suburban and exurban illicit drug distribution. Drug dealing can be done directly in predominantly white suburbs and rural areas without the accompanying violence associated with the old epidemic. Denial of the link between the new and old heroin epidemics racially segregates heroin users and more proactive prevention and treatment in the new epidemic than in the old. It also cuts off a half-century of knowledge about the supply-side of heroin drug dealing and the inevitable public policy measures that will have to be implemented to effectively slow and stop both the old and new epidemic. Copyright © 2016 National Medical Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. On the Use of Human Mobility Proxies for Modeling Epidemics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tizzoni, Michele; Bajardi, Paolo; Decuyper, Adeline; Kon Kam King, Guillaume; Schneider, Christian M.; Blondel, Vincent; Smoreda, Zbigniew; González, Marta C.; Colizza, Vittoria

    2014-01-01

    Human mobility is a key component of large-scale spatial-transmission models of infectious diseases. Correctly modeling and quantifying human mobility is critical for improving epidemic control, but may be hindered by data incompleteness or unavailability. Here we explore the opportunity of using proxies for individual mobility to describe commuting flows and predict the diffusion of an influenza-like-illness epidemic. We consider three European countries and the corresponding commuting networks at different resolution scales, obtained from (i) official census surveys, (ii) proxy mobility data extracted from mobile phone call records, and (iii) the radiation model calibrated with census data. Metapopulation models defined on these countries and integrating the different mobility layers are compared in terms of epidemic observables. We show that commuting networks from mobile phone data capture the empirical commuting patterns well, accounting for more than 87% of the total fluxes. The distributions of commuting fluxes per link from mobile phones and census sources are similar and highly correlated, however a systematic overestimation of commuting traffic in the mobile phone data is observed. This leads to epidemics that spread faster than on census commuting networks, once the mobile phone commuting network is considered in the epidemic model, however preserving to a high degree the order of infection of newly affected locations. Proxies' calibration affects the arrival times' agreement across different models, and the observed topological and traffic discrepancies among mobility sources alter the resulting epidemic invasion patterns. Results also suggest that proxies perform differently in approximating commuting patterns for disease spread at different resolution scales, with the radiation model showing higher accuracy than mobile phone data when the seed is central in the network, the opposite being observed for peripheral locations. Proxies should therefore be

  2. Suicide in the military environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Čabarkapa Milanko M.

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Suicide of soldiers has its own specifics, because not only it represents the tragedy for the individuals and their family, but also has great psychological effect on social environment and military unit in which it occurs. Suicide can be caused by variety of factors, as reported in the literature. The case reviewed in this article presents multilateral determination of suicide, with particular stress on the character of each individual and social interaction of soldiers. Psychological complex of basic inferiority, low educational level, family problems, and poor integration into military unit could be considered the leading determinants of this suicide. This emphasizes the importance of certain preventive measures such as more rigorous psychological selection for specific military duty, and the education of non-commissioned officers for better recognition and understanding of pre-suicidal syndrome.

  3. The Role of Communication in Military Leadership

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Monika Lewińska

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the paper is to discuss the role of communication in military leadership. First of all, basic terms related to communication, command and military leadership are explained. In the following parts of the paper it is intended to answer the question contained in the title: what is the role of communication in the military leadership? To precise the issue: is the role of communication in military organisations similar to civilian leadership and management or does it significantly differ?

  4. Worldwide Military Spending, 1990-1995

    OpenAIRE

    Jerald A Schiff; Benedict J. Clements; Sanjeev Gupta

    1996-01-01

    The decline in military spending that began in the mid-1980s continued through 1995, and this decline was widespread both geographically and by level of development. Cuts in military spending appear to have potentially important implications for nonmilitary spending and fiscal adjustment. In contrast to findings for previous periods, military spending has declined more than proportionately in those countries that have reduced total spending. Countries with Fund programs have reduced military ...

  5. Mental Reservation and Military Testimony before Congress

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Roberts, Gordon R

    2008-01-01

    .... The cause for this apparent mental reservation on the part of military leaders can be found in their organizational bias and environmental influences, but the solution can be found in history. It is vital for the military to understand that a currency of truth is the most important contribution it can make to the civilian-military relationship.

  6. Analysis of Unmanned Systems in Military Logistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-12-01

    performance measures: customer satisfaction , flexibility, visibility, and trust. If we apply this explanation of Li and Schulze (2011) to the military...unmanned systems, initially, we aimed to define current and proposed unmanned applications in civilian-sector logistics and current military...aimed to define current and proposed unmanned applications in civilian-sector logistics and current military logistics challenges. Then, justifying

  7. The Barracks Subculture of Military School Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poliakov, R. Iu.

    2011-01-01

    The subcultures that develop among military students have a powerful influence on their values and behavior, and in some situations are more influential than the official, military culture. Any attempt to improve levels of discipline in the military cannot afford to ignore these subcultures. [This article was translated by Kim Braithwaite.

  8. Military Citation, Sixth Edition, July 1997

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    1997-01-01

    .... If the Military Citation and The Bluebook do not address a source of authority used in military practice, the author should attempt to maintain uniformity in citation style by adapting the most analogous and useful citation form that Military Citation and The Bluebook do address. Most importantly, the author should provide the reader with sufficient information to locate the referenced material swiftly.

  9. 5 CFR 842.306 - Military service.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 5 Administrative Personnel 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Military service. 842.306 Section 842.306... EMPLOYEES RETIREMENT SYSTEM-BASIC ANNUITY Credit for Service § 842.306 Military service. (a) Except as...' Retirement System Act of 1986, an employee's or Member's military service is creditable if it was performed...

  10. 5 CFR 831.301 - Military service.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 5 Administrative Personnel 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Military service. 831.301 Section 831.301...) RETIREMENT Credit for Service § 831.301 Military service. (a) Service of an individual who first became an... is not receiving military retired pay awarded for reasons other than (i) service-connected disability...

  11. Obesity and the US Military Family

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanofsky-Kraff, Marian; Sbrocco, Tracy; Theim, Kelly R.; Cohen, L. Adelyn; Mackey, Eleanor R.; Stice, Eric; Henderson, Jennifer L.; McCreight, Sarah J.; Bryant, Edny J.; Stephens, Mark B.

    2014-01-01

    Objective This review discusses the current knowledge and future directions regarding obesity within the US military family (i.e., active-duty servicemembers, as well as military spouses, children, retirees, and veterans). The increasing rates of overweight and obesity within the US military adversely impact military readiness, limit recruitment, and place a significant financial burden on the Department of Defense. Design and Methods The following topics are reviewed: 1) The prevalence of and the financial, physical, and psychological costs associated with overweight in military communities; 2) military weight regulations, and challenges faced by the military family related to overweight and disordered eating; 3) the continued need for rigorous program evaluations and new intervention development. Results Overweight and its associated sequelae impact the entire military family. Military families share many similarities with their civilian counterparts, but they face unique challenges (e.g., stress related to deployments and relocations). Although the military has weight management resources, there is an urgent need for rigorous program evaluation and the development of enhanced obesity prevention programs across the lifespan of the military family–several of which are proposed herein. Conclusions Interdisciplinary and collaborative research efforts and team-based interventions will continue to inform understanding of obesity treatment and prevention within military and civilian populations. PMID:23836452

  12. 32 CFR 1602.17 - Military service.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 32 National Defense 6 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Military service. 1602.17 Section 1602.17 National Defense Other Regulations Relating to National Defense SELECTIVE SERVICE SYSTEM DEFINITIONS § 1602.17 Military service. The term military service includes service in the Army, the Navy, the Air Force...

  13. Truth and (self) censorship in military memoirs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kleinreesink, E.; Soeters, J.M.M.L.

    2016-01-01

    It can be difficult for researchers from outside the military to gain access to the field. However, there is a rich source on the military that is readily available for every researcher: military memoirs. This source does provide some methodological challenges with regard to truth and (self)

  14. Creating National Attraction: Military Intelligence Sharing Building Foreign Military Interdependence

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-05-21

    the Brazilian military.57 The establishment of an enduring program, even after the departure of US personnel, indicated the successful nature of...United States, coming to support the United States in a time of crisis went a long way to begin rebuilding a relationship that was in decline since the

  15. Military coups and military regimes in Africa | Japhet | Scientia ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Scientia Militaria: South African Journal of Military Studies. Journal Home · ABOUT THIS JOURNAL · Advanced Search · Current Issue · Archives · Journal Home > Vol 8, No 4 (1978) >. Log in or Register to get access to full text downloads.

  16. Nonlinear model of epidemic spreading in a complex social network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kosiński, Robert A; Grabowski, A

    2007-10-01

    The epidemic spreading in a human society is a complex process, which can be described on the basis of a nonlinear mathematical model. In such an approach the complex and hierarchical structure of social network (which has implications for the spreading of pathogens and can be treated as a complex network), can be taken into account. In our model each individual has one of the four permitted states: susceptible, infected, infective, unsusceptible or dead. This refers to the SEIR model used in epidemiology. The state of an individual changes in time, depending on the previous state and the interactions with other individuals. The description of the interpersonal contacts is based on the experimental observations of the social relations in the community. It includes spatial localization of the individuals and hierarchical structure of interpersonal interactions. Numerical simulations were performed for different types of epidemics, giving the progress of a spreading process and typical relationships (e.g. range of epidemic in time, the epidemic curve). The spreading process has a complex and spatially chaotic character. The time dependence of the number of infective individuals shows the nonlinear character of the spreading process. We investigate the influence of the preventive vaccinations on the spreading process. In particular, for a critical value of preventively vaccinated individuals the percolation threshold is observed and the epidemic is suppressed.

  17. Epidemic spreading on dual-structure networks with mobile agents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yao, Yiyang; Zhou, Yinzuo

    2017-02-01

    The rapid development of modern society continually transforms the social structure which leads to an increasingly distinct dual structure of higher population density in urban areas and lower density in rural areas. Such structure may induce distinctive spreading behavior of epidemics which does not happen in a single type structure. In this paper, we study the epidemic spreading of mobile agents on dual structure networks based on SIRS model. First, beyond the well known epidemic threshold for generic epidemic model that when the infection rate is below the threshold a pertinent infectious disease will die out, we find the other epidemic threshold which appears when the infection rate of a disease is relatively high. This feature of two thresholds for the SIRS model may lead to the elimination of infectious disease when social network has either high population density or low population density. Interestingly, however, we find that when a high density area is connected to a low density may cause persistent spreading of the infectious disease, even though the same disease will die out when it spreads in each single area. This phenomenon indicates the critical role of the connection between the two areas which could radically change the behavior of spreading dynamics. Our findings, therefore, provide new understanding of epidemiology pertinent to the characteristic modern social structure and have potential to develop controlling strategies accordingly.

  18. Ebola epidemic--Liberia, March-October 2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nyenswah, Tolbert; Fahnbulleh, Miatta; Massaquoi, Moses; Nagbe, Thomas; Bawo, Luke; Falla, James Dorbor; Kohar, Henry; Gasasira, Alex; Nabeth, Pierre; Yett, Sheldon; Gergonne, Bernadette; Casey, Sean; Espinosa, Benjamin; McCoy, Andrea; Feldman, Heinz; Hensley, Lisa; Baily, Mark; Fields, Barry; Lo, Terrence; Lindblade, Kim; Mott, Josh; Boulanger, Lucy; Christie, Athalia; Wang, Susan; Montgomery, Joel; Mahoney, Frank

    2014-11-21

    On March 21, 2014, the Guinea Ministry of Health reported the outbreak of an illness characterized by fever, severe diarrhea, vomiting and a high fatality rate (59%), leading to the first known epidemic of Ebola virus disease (Ebola) in West Africa and the largest and longest Ebola epidemic in history. As of November 2, Liberia had reported the largest number of cases (6,525) and deaths (2,697) among the three affected countries of West Africa with ongoing transmission (Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone). The response strategy in Liberia has included management of the epidemic through an incident management system (IMS) in which the activities of all partners are coordinated. Within the IMS, key strategies for epidemic control include surveillance, case investigation, laboratory confirmation, contact tracing, safe transportation of persons with suspected Ebola, isolation, infection control within the health care system, community engagement, and safe burial. This report provides a brief overview of the progression of the epidemic in Liberia and summarizes the interventions implemented.

  19. Epidemic spread over networks with agent awareness and social distancing

    KAUST Repository

    Paarporn, Keith

    2016-04-20

    We study an SIS epidemic model over an arbitrary connected network topology when the agents receive personalized information about the current epidemic state. The agents utilize their available information to either reduce interactions with their neighbors (social distancing) when they believe the epidemic is currently prevalent or resume normal interactions when they believe there is low risk of becoming infected. The information is a weighted combination of three sources: 1) the average states of nodes in contact neighborhoods 2) the average states of nodes in an information network 3) a global broadcast of the average epidemic state of the network. A 2n-state Markov Chain is first considered to model the disease dynamics with awareness, from which a mean-field discrete-time n-state dynamical system is derived, where each state corresponds to an agent\\'s probability of being infected. The nonlinear model is a lower bound of its linearized version about the origin. Hence, global stability of the origin (the diseasefree equilibrium) in the linear model implies global stability in the nonlinear model. When the origin is not stable, we show the existence of a nontrivial fixed point in the awareness model, which obeys a strict partial order in relation to the nontrivial fixed point of the dynamics without distancing. In simulations, we define two performance metrics to understand the effectiveness agent awareness has in reducing the spread of an epidemic. © 2015 IEEE.

  20. Reconstructing the AIDS epidemic among injection drug users in Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hacker, Mariana A; Leite, Iuri C; Renton, Adrian; Torres, Tania Guillén de; Gracie, Renata; Bastos, Francisco I

    2006-04-01

    The HIV/AIDS epidemic among injection drug users (IDUs) in Brazil has been unique in terms of temporal and geographical contrasts. This analysis explores these contrasts through the use of multilevel modeling. Standardized AIDS incidence rates among IDUs for Brazilian municipalities (1986-2000) were used as the dependent variable, with a set of social indicators as independent variables (covariates). In some States of the North/Northeast, the epidemic among IDUs has been incipient. The São Paulo epidemic extended to reach a network of municipalities, most of which located far from the capital. More recently, on a smaller scale, a similar extension has been observed in the southernmost States of the country. Both "number of physicians per inhabitant" and "standard distance to the State capital" were found to be associated with AIDS incidence. AIDS cases among IDUs appeared to cluster in wealthier, more developed municipalities. The relative weight of such extensive dissemination in key, heavily populated States prevails in the Brazilian IDU epidemic, defining a central-western-southeastern strip of wealthier middle-sized municipalities and more recently a southern strip of municipalities deeply affected by the epidemic in this population.

  1. Disease-induced resource constraints can trigger explosive epidemics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Böttcher, L.; Woolley-Meza, O.; Araújo, N. A. M.; Herrmann, H. J.; Helbing, D.

    2015-11-01

    Advances in mathematical epidemiology have led to a better understanding of the risks posed by epidemic spreading and informed strategies to contain disease spread. However, a challenge that has been overlooked is that, as a disease becomes more prevalent, it can limit the availability of the capital needed to effectively treat those who have fallen ill. Here we use a simple mathematical model to gain insight into the dynamics of an epidemic when the recovery of sick individuals depends on the availability of healing resources that are generated by the healthy population. We find that epidemics spiral out of control into “explosive” spread if the cost of recovery is above a critical cost. This can occur even when the disease would die out without the resource constraint. The onset of explosive epidemics is very sudden, exhibiting a discontinuous transition under very general assumptions. We find analytical expressions for the critical cost and the size of the explosive jump in infection levels in terms of the parameters that characterize the spreading process. Our model and results apply beyond epidemics to contagion dynamics that self-induce constraints on recovery, thereby amplifying the spreading process.

  2. Epidemic Intelligence. Langmuir and the Birth of Disease Surveillance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lyle Fearnley

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available In the wake of the SARS and influenza epidemics of the past decade, one public health solution has become a refrain: surveillance systems for detection of disease outbreaks. This paper is an effort to understand how disease surveillance for outbreak detection gained such paramount rationality in contemporary public health. The epidemiologist Alexander Langmuir is well known as the creator of modern disease surveillance. But less well known is how he imagined disease surveillance as one part of what he called “epidemic intelligence.” Langmuir developed the practice of disease surveillance during an unprecedented moment in which the threat of biological warfare brought civil defense experts and epidemiologists together around a common problem. In this paper, I describe how Langmuir navigated this world, experimenting with new techniques and rationales of epidemic control. Ultimately, I argue, Langmuir′s experiments resulted in a set of techniques and infrastructures – a system of epidemic intelligence – that transformed the epidemic as an object of human art.

  3. Reconstructing the AIDS epidemic among injection drug users in Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariana A. Hacker

    2006-04-01

    Full Text Available The HIV/AIDS epidemic among injection drug users (IDUs in Brazil has been unique in terms of temporal and geographical contrasts. This analysis explores these contrasts through the use of multilevel modeling. Standardized AIDS incidence rates among IDUs for Brazilian municipalities (1986-2000 were used as the dependent variable, with a set of social indicators as independent variables (covariates. In some States of the North/Northeast, the epidemic among IDUs has been incipient. The São Paulo epidemic extended to reach a network of municipalities, most of which located far from the capital. More recently, on a smaller scale, a similar extension has been observed in the southernmost States of the country. Both "number of physicians per inhabitant" and "standard distance to the State capital" were found to be associated with AIDS incidence. AIDS cases among IDUs appeared to cluster in wealthier, more developed municipalities. The relative weight of such extensive dissemination in key, heavily populated States prevails in the Brazilian IDU epidemic, defining a central-western-southeastern strip of wealthier middle-sized municipalities and more recently a southern strip of municipalities deeply affected by the epidemic in this population.

  4. Military experience can influence Women's eating habits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breland, Jessica Y; Donalson, Rosemary; Nevedal, Andrea; Dinh, Julie V; Maguen, Shira

    2017-11-01

    Disordered eating, ranging from occasional binge eating or restriction to behaviors associated with eating disorder diagnoses, is common among military personnel and veterans. However, there is little information on how military service affects eating habits. To describe possible pathways between military service and disordered eating among women veterans, a high risk group. Twenty women veterans who reported changing eating habits in response to stress participated in audio-recorded focus groups or dyadic interviews between April 2013 and October 2014. We used thematic analysis of transcripts to identify and understand women's self-reported eating habits before, during, and after military service. Participants reported entering the military with varied eating habits, but little disordered eating. Participants described several ways military environments affected eating habits, for example, by promoting fast, irregular, binge-like eating and disrupting the reward value of food. Participants believed military-related stressors, which were often related to gender, also affected eating habits. Such stressors included military sexual trauma and the need to meet military weight requirements in general and after giving birth. Participants also reported that poor eating habits continued after military service, often because they remained under stress. For some women, military service can result in socialization to poor eating habits, which when combined with exposure to stressors can lead to disordered eating. Additional research is needed, including work to understand possible benefits associated with providing support in relation to military weight requirements and the transition out of military service. Given the unique experiences of women in the military, future work could also focus on health services surrounding pregnancy-related weight change and the stress associated with being a woman in predominantly male military environments. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  5. Clinical Survey of Dengue Virus Circulation in the Republic of Djibouti between 2011 and 2014 Identifies Serotype 3 Epidemic and Recommends Clinical Diagnosis Guidelines for Resource Limited Settings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Gonidec, Erwan; Maquart, Marianne; Duron, Sandrine; Savini, Hélène; Cazajous, Geraldine; Vidal, Pierre-Olivier; Chenilleau, Marie-Caroline; Roseau, Jean-Baptiste; Benois, Alain; Dehan, Céline; Kugelman, Jeffrey; Leparc-Goffart, Isabelle; Védy, Serge

    2016-06-01

    Dengue virus is endemic globally, throughout tropical and sub-tropical regions. While the number of epidemics due to the four DENV serotypes is pronounced in East Africa, the total number of cases reported in Africa (16 million infections) remained at low levels compared to Asia (70 million infections). The French Armed forces Health Service provides epidemiological surveillance support in the Republic of Djibouti through the Bouffard Military hospital. Between 2011 and 2014, clinical and biological data of suspected dengue syndromes were collected at the Bouffard Military hospital and analyzed to improve Dengue clinical diagnosis and evaluate its circulation in East Africa. Examining samples from patients that presented one or more Dengue-like symptoms the study evidenced 128 Dengue cases among 354 suspected cases (36.2% of the non-malarial Dengue-like syndromes). It also demonstrated the circulation of serotypes 1 and 2 and reports the first epidemic of serotype 3 infections in Djibouti which was found in all of the hospitalized patients in this study. Based on these results we have determined that screening for Malaria and the presence of the arthralgia, gastro-intestinal symptoms and lymphopenia Djibouti.

  6. Epidemic dengue 2 in the city of Djibouti 1991-1992.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodier, G R; Gubler, D J; Cope, S E; Cropp, C B; Soliman, A K; Polycarpe, D; Abdourhaman, M A; Parra, J P; Maslin, J; Arthur, R R

    1996-01-01

    From October 1991 to February 1992, an outbreak of acute fever (in which thick blood films were negative for malaria) spread rapidly in the city of Djibouti, Djibouti Republic, affecting all age groups and both nationals and foreigners. The estimated number of cases was 12,000. The clinical features were consistent with a non-haemorrhagic dengue-like illness. Serum samples from 91 patients were analysed serologically for flavivirus infection (dengue 1-4, West Nile, yellow fever, Zika, Banzi, and Uganda-S), and virus isolation was attempted. Twelve strains of dengue 2 virus were isolated. Dengue infection was confirmed by a 4-fold or greater rise in immunoglobulin (Ig) G antibody in paired serum specimens, the presence of IgM antibody, or isolation of the virus. Overall, 46 of the suspected cases (51%) were confirmed virologically or had serological evidence of a recent flavivirus infection. Statistical analysis showed that the presence of a rash was the best predictor of flavivirus seropositivity. In November 1992, Aedes aegypti was widespread and abundant in several districts of Djibouti city. A serological study of serum samples collected from Djiboutian military personnel 5 months before the epidemic showed that only 15/177 (8.5%) had flavivirus antibodies. These findings, together with a negative serosurvey for dengue serotypes 1-4 and yellow fever virus performed in 1987, support the conclusion that dengue 2 virus has only recently been introduced to Djibouti.

  7. [Observations on the 1348 plague epidemic. Measures taken to combat its tragic effects and avoid epidemic recrudescence].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabbatani, Sergio

    2003-03-01

    When the "Black Death" swept through Europe from southern France in 1348, in the short space of two years the Europeans were hit by one of the most serious epidemics ever recorded in human history. Yersinia pestis reached Europe by sea, its contamination propagated by the Genoese ships coming from the Crimean port of Jaffa. For the first time the world experienced microbiological unification: East and West were equally involved in the tragedy that spread, and no town remained unscathed during the various epidemic waves which succeeded one another in the following three centuries. The authors of this article describe how and why the epidemic spread, as well as the factors that led to the swift, and often fatal, involment of millions of Europeans. The second part of the article deals with the measures taken by the healthcare authorities of European towns and countries in order to halt the proliferation of the disease. According to the data and observations by authoritative authors, selected among the many who studied the disease that from the 14th century spread like a scourge throughout the known world at the time, the epidemic could have been even more serious, in terms of mortality and morbidity, without the disciplinary and provisional health measures taken. The experience gained in Italy and all over Europe at the time proved useful not only to better manage the epidemics which cyclically broke out, but also to efficiently combat the cholera epidemics of the 19th century. With the 14th century plague epidemic, the Europeans and their political and administrative representatives may well have realized for the very first time that contamination could be combatted by adopting a set of rational, scientific norms - although in practice such rules were mostly inspired by misguided scientific theories. Humankind was no longer alone. A new society was emerging, one that was not going to passively accept the more or less mysterious ways of a superior being of fate. The

  8. Obesity epidemic in Brazil and Argentina: a public health concern.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arbex, Alberto K; Rocha, Denise R T W; Aizenberg, Marisa; Ciruzzi, Maria S

    2014-06-01

    The obesity epidemic is rapidly advancing in South America, leading to inevitable health consequences. Argentinian and Brazilian health policies try to become adapted to the new economic and social framework that follows from this epidemic. It is in incipient and ineffective control so far since the prevalence of obesity was not restrained. The Argentine national legislation is more advanced, through the so-called "Ley de Obesidad." In Brazil, there are numerous local initiatives but still not a comprehensive law. National policies relating to decisions regarding obesity are discussed in this paper. Trends in decisions issued in higher courts of Argentina (Supreme Court of Justice of the Nation--CSJN) and Brazil (Supreme Court of Justice--STF), in the last 15 years, seek to clarify the approach of each country and court's resolutions. Marked differences were found in their positions. Finally, legal and health solutions to this obesity epidemic are proposed.

  9. Horizontal antimicrobial resistance transfer drives epidemics of multiple Shigella species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, Kate S; Dallman, Timothy J; Field, Nigel; Childs, Tristan; Mitchell, Holly; Day, Martin; Weill, François-Xavier; Lefèvre, Sophie; Tourdjman, Mathieu; Hughes, Gwenda; Jenkins, Claire; Thomson, Nicholas

    2018-04-13

    Horizontal gene transfer has played a role in developing the global public health crisis of antimicrobial resistance (AMR). However, the dynamics of AMR transfer through bacterial populations and its direct impact on human disease is poorly elucidated. Here, we study parallel epidemic emergences of multiple Shigella species, a priority AMR organism, in men who have sex with men to gain insight into AMR emergence and spread. Using genomic epidemiology, we show that repeated horizontal transfer of a single AMR plasmid among Shigella enhanced existing and facilitated new epidemics. These epidemic patterns contrasted with slighter, slower increases in disease caused by organisms with vertically inherited (chromosomally encoded) AMR. This demonstrates that horizontal transfer of AMR directly affects epidemiological outcomes of globally important AMR pathogens and highlights the need for integration of genomic analyses into all areas of AMR research, surveillance and management.

  10. Steady States in SIRS Epidemical Model of Mobile Individuals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Duanming; He Minhua; Yu Xiaoling; Pan Guijun; Sun Hongzhang; Su Xiangying; Sun Fan; Yin Yanping; Li Rui; Liu Dan

    2006-01-01

    We consider an epidemical model within socially interacting mobile individuals to study the behaviors of steady states of epidemic propagation in 2D networks. Using mean-field approximation and large scale simulations, we recover the usual epidemic behavior with critical thresholds δ c and p c below which infectious disease dies out. For the population density δ far above δ c , it is found that there is linear relationship between contact rate λ and the population density δ in the main. At the same time, the result obtained from mean-field approximation is compared with our numerical result, and it is found that these two results are similar by and large but not completely the same.

  11. Steady States in SIRS Epidemical Model of Mobile Individuals

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHANG Duan-Ming; LIU Dan; HE Min-Hua; YU Xiao-Ling; PAN Gui-Jun; SUN Hong-Zhang; SU Xiang-Ying; SUN Fan; YIN Yan-Ping; LI Rui

    2006-01-01

    We consider an epidemical model within socially interacting mobile individuals to study the behaviors of steady statesof epidemic propagation in 2D networks. Using mean-field approximation and large scale simulations, we recover the usual epidemic behavior with critical thresholds δc and pc below which infectious disease dies out. For the population density δ far above δc, it is found that there is linear relationship between contact rate λ and the population density δ in the main. At the same time, the result obtained from mean-field approximation is compared with our numerical result, and it is found that these two results are similar by and large but not completely the same.

  12. Epidemic spreading on contact networks with adaptive weights.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Guanghu; Chen, Guanrong; Xu, Xin-Jian; Fu, Xinchu

    2013-01-21

    The heterogeneous patterns of interactions within a population are often described by contact networks, but the variety and adaptivity of contact strengths are usually ignored. This paper proposes a modified epidemic SIS model with a birth-death process and nonlinear infectivity on an adaptive and weighted contact network. The links' weights, named as 'adaptive weights', which indicate the intimacy or familiarity between two connected individuals, will reduce as the disease develops. Through mathematical and numerical analyses, conditions are established for population extermination, disease extinction and infection persistence. Particularly, it is found that the fixed weights setting can trigger the epidemic incidence, and that the adaptivity of weights cannot change the epidemic threshold but it can accelerate the disease decay and lower the endemic level. Finally, some corresponding control measures are suggested. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. The paralytic poliomyelitis epidemic of 1978 in Jordan: epidemiological implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khuri-Bulos, Najwa; Melnick, Joseph L.; Hatch, Milford H.; Dawod, Saleh T.

    1984-01-01

    Poliomyelitis is endemic in Jordan, but until 1978 there were no epidemics. In that year, 66 children were admitted to the Jordan University Hospital with a paralytic illness, compared with 13 in 1979 and 11 in 1980. The epidemic reached a peak in the summer and fall of 1978. While 54% of the patients had not received any vaccine, 19% had received 3 doses of oral poliovaccine; 82% of the cases were in children less than 2 years of age, and all belonged to the lower socioeconomic group. There were 28 deaths with complications of the disease. Poliovirus was isolated from 10 out of 14 rectal swab samples examined (9 with poliovirus 1, 1 with poliovirus 2), and from 4 out of 13 throat specimens from the same patients. It is concluded that as a result of improving living standards in Jordan and neighbouring countries, more epidemics may occur unless immunization efforts against poliomyelitis are intensified. PMID:6609022

  14. Global Changes in Food Supply and the Obesity Epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zobel, Emilie H; Hansen, Tine W; Rossing, Peter; von Scholten, Bernt Johan

    2016-12-01

    We explore how a global shift in the food system caused by global economic growth, increase in available food per capita and in food processing is a driver of the obesity epidemic. Economic development in most areas of the world has resulted in increased purchasing power and available per capita food. Supermarkets and a growing fast-food industry have transformed our dietary pattern. Ultra-processed food rich on sugars and saturated fat is now the major source of energy in most countries. The shift in food supply is considered a major driver of the obesity epidemic and the increasing prevalence of accompanying complications, such as type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease and cancer. However, the global shift might also have direct effects on the increase in type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease and cancer, independently of overweight and obesity. The shift in the food supply is a major driver of the obesity epidemic.

  15. 'Military Thinkers and Academic Thinkers'

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Haugegaard, Rikke

    Culture analysis seems to create friction when we try to introduce academic concepts relating to culture to military planners. This friction might be related to the fact that officers and academics do their thinking in different 'spaces'. This paper argues the interface or overlapping space between...

  16. Military History: A Selected Bibliography

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Murray, Williamson

    2003-01-01

    ...: quality of scholarship, point of view subject matter, and readability. They are categorized by period and subject matter, and given a rating by the author. The first chapter contains an annotated list of twenty-five books that Dr. Murray considers essential to the library of a warfighter, scholar, or student of military history.

  17. Stress fractures in military training

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jofre, M.J.; Sierralta, M.P.

    2002-01-01

    During military training, the incidence of overuse injuries like stress fractures increase. The aim of the study was to investigate the utility of bone scan in a military population with clinical suspected stress fractures or periostitis. Material and methods: A three-year retrospective analysis was made on patients who were clinically diagnosed with stress fractures at the Military Hospital Nuclear Medicine Department. Thirty-seven patients were studied (mean age 23. +/- 8 y.o; 31 males), 28 cases of which (76%) had tibial stress syndrome. Other localizations were lumbar spine, femoral, fibular, tarsal or metatarsal. Bone scintigraphy was performed injecting 1036 MBq of Tc99m-MDP i.v. Whole body images and lateral projections of lower extremities were done. Results: Bone scan in tibial syndrome was positive for 23 cases (82%), 65% of them were bilateral and 13% also had femoral injuries. X-rays were done in 10 cases and were all negative. In other localizations, the bone scans were negative, but demonstrated other degenerative lesions. All stress fractures were conservatively treated with non-steroidal anti-inflammatories and suspension of physical activity. Conclusions: Bone scan is a reliable confirmatory tool for tibial stress syndrome diagnosis. In addition, it helps to determine both the severity and extension of the injury as well as support the indication of rest in the military population

  18. Stress fractures in military training

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jofre, M J; Sierralta, M P [Military Hospital Nuclear Medicine Department, Santiago (Chile)

    2002-09-01

    During military training, the incidence of overuse injuries like stress fractures increase. The aim of the study was to investigate the utility of bone scan in a military population with clinical suspected stress fractures or periostitis. Material and methods: A three-year retrospective analysis was made on patients who were clinically diagnosed with stress fractures at the Military Hospital Nuclear Medicine Department. Thirty-seven patients were studied (mean age 23. +/- 8 y.o; 31 males), 28 cases of which (76%) had tibial stress syndrome. Other localizations were lumbar spine, femoral, fibular, tarsal or metatarsal. Bone scintigraphy was performed injecting 1036 MBq of Tc99m-MDP i.v. Whole body images and lateral projections of lower extremities were done. Results: Bone scan in tibial syndrome was positive for 23 cases (82%), 65% of them were bilateral and 13% also had femoral injuries. X-rays were done in 10 cases and were all negative. In other localizations, the bone scans were negative, but demonstrated other degenerative lesions. All stress fractures were conservatively treated with non-steroidal anti-inflammatories and suspension of physical activity. Conclusions: Bone scan is a reliable confirmatory tool for tibial stress syndrome diagnosis. In addition, it helps to determine both the severity and extension of the injury as well as support the indication of rest in the military population.

  19. Military Influence in Russian Politics

    Science.gov (United States)

    1992-09-01

    militarization Union. I have concluded that the disappeared. 5 Indeed, a de -militarization military’s opportunity and motivation to of Soviet society and... sindrom 41-go." Novoe vremya, No. 8 (February volunteers over conscripts, and the Navy 1991); Maj. Gen. V.G. Strekozov, "Zakony ob oborone i statuse

  20. Private Military and Security Contractors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    In Private Military and Security Contractors: Controlling the Corporate Warrior a multinational team of 16 scholars and a practitioner from political science, sociology, and law address a developing phenomenon: controlling the use of privatized force by states in international politics. Robust...

  1. Supporting Students from Military Families

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rossen, Eric; Carter, Courtney D.

    2012-01-01

    In the last decade, more than 800,000 parents of school-age children have been deployed by the U.S. military. Many have deployed more than once and for extended periods, often longer than a year. As a result, increasing numbers of students experience significant distress on a daily basis and are at increased risk for behavioral problems, decreased…

  2. National Museum of Military History

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A Nicolaides

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Attractions such as military history museums which exhibit a wide range of important historical artefacts are fundamental sub-elements in any tourism systems, and yet their study suffers from lack of theoretical depth. Military history is an integral element of the history of any nation and countless varieties of tourists both local and international, visit military museums whenever the opportunity presents itself because museums are generally stimulating places of interest. This article focuses predominantly on international tourists visiting the Ditsong National Museum of Military History. In addition to the interest that such museums generate, they play a key role as the organizational foundation stones of modernity. It is via their many interesting exhibits that museums enlighten us about the past that intrinsically highlights its distance from the present era. Museums also selectively reconstitute aspects of history and in so doing alienate many artefacts from their original context and yet manage to impart deep understanding of events that shaped the modern world. Museums of all types thus impart knowledge and have a wide range of tales to tell concerning the many and diverse assortments of objects they hold. National pride is an obvious reason for having a military museum where the comprehensive display of military equipment is exceptionally unique while exhibition halls also offer an educational narrative of a nation’s history. What is also of interest to many visitors is the type of research that is carried out in a multiplicity of ways. The huge global growth in tourism in recent years has contributed to many museums radically altering their exhibits in both content and manner of exhibition. This is significant given the reciprocal impact that museums and tourism have on one another. The attractions in museums are regarded by many to be central to the tourism process and these are very often the main reason for many tourists visiting

  3. Reemergence of enterovirus 71 epidemic in northern Taiwan, 2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Shu-Ting; Chiang, Pai-Shan; Chung, Wan-Yu; Chia, Min-Yuan; Tsao, Kuo-Chien; Wang, Ying-Hsiang; Lin, Tzou-Yien; Lee, Min-Shi

    2015-01-01

    Enterovirus 71 (EV71) belongs to picornavirus family and could be classified phylogenetically into three major genogroups (A, B and C) including 11 genotypes (A, B1-B5 and C1-C5). Since 1997, EV71 has caused large-scale of epidemics with neurological complications in Asian children. In Taiwan, nationwide EV71 epidemics with different predominant genotypes have occurred cyclically since 1998. A nationwide EV71 epidemic occurred again in 2012. We conducted genetic and antigenic characterizations of the 2012 epidemic. Chang Gung Memorial Hospital (CGMH) is a medical center in northern Taiwan. In CGMH, specimens were collected from pediatric inpatients with suspected enterovirus infections for virus isolation. Enterovirus isolates were serotyped and genotyped and sera from EV71 inpatients were collected for measuring neutralizing antibody titers. There were 10, 16 and 99 EV71 inpatients identified in 2010, 2011 and 2012, respectively. There were 82 EV71 isolates genotyped, which identified 17 genotype C4a viruses and 65 genotype B5 viruses. The genotype B5 viruses were not detected until November 2011 and caused epidemics in 2012. Interestingly, the B5-2011 viruses were genetically distinguishable from the B5 viruses causing the 2008 epidemic and are likely introduced from China or Southeastern Asia. Based on antigenic analysis, minor antigenic variations were detected among the B5-2008, B5-2011, C4a-2008 and C4a-2012 viruses but these viruses antigenically differed from genotype A. Genotype B5 and C4a viruses antigenically differ from genotype A viruses which have disappeared globally for 30 years but have been detected in China since 2008. Enterovirus surveillance should monitor genetic and antigenic variations of EV71.

  4. Association of Drought with Typhus Epidemics in Central Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acuna-Soto, R.; Stahle, D.; Villanueva Diaz, J.; Therrell, M.

    2007-05-01

    Typhus is an acute infectious disease caused by the bacteria Rickettsia prowazekii, which is transmitted among humans by the body lice (Pediculus humanus corporis). The disease is highly contagious and transmission is favored in populations living in crowded conditions. Under these circumstances, typhus transmission is facilitated by factors that favor the colonization and proliferation of body lice such as absence of personal hygiene and wearing the same clothes for long periods of time. Historically, periods of war and famine were associated with devastating epidemics with high mortality rates in many parts of the world. Central Mexico has a long record of typhus epidemics. In this region, at > 2000 meters above sea level, the disease was endemic and occurred with a seasonal pattern in winter, with occasional large epidemics. Recently, we completed a chronology of epidemics in Mexico. A total of 22 well-defined major typhus epidemics were identified between 1650 and 1920. All of them caused periods of increased mortality that lasted 2 - 4 years (more than one standard deviation from the previous ten year period). The record of typhus epidemics was evaluated against the tree-ring record of Cuauhtmoc La Fragua, Puebla. This chronology, based on Douglas fir, has demonstrated to be a faithful record of precipitation in central Mexico. The results indicate that a statistically significant drought (t test, p first year of all 22 large outbreaks of typhus in recent Mexican history. No distinction is made between times of peace and war. This indicates that drought alone was capable of inducing the social conditions for increased transmission of typhus in pre-industrial central Mexico.

  5. Suppressing traffic-driven epidemic spreading by use of the efficient routing protocol

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, Han-Xin; Wu, Zhi-Xi

    2014-01-01

    Despite extensive work on the interplay between traffic dynamics and epidemic spreading, the control of epidemic spreading by routing strategies has not received adequate attention. In this paper, we study the impact of an efficient routing protocol on epidemic spreading. In the case of infinite node-delivery capacity, where the traffic is free of congestion, we find that that there exist optimal values of routing parameter, leading to the maximal epidemic threshold. This means that epidemic spreading can be effectively controlled by fine tuning the routing scheme. Moreover, we find that an increase in the average network connectivity and the emergence of traffic congestion can suppress the epidemic outbreak. (paper)

  6. Stable intergenerational associations of childhood overweight during the development of the obesity epidemic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ajslev, Teresa A; Ängquist, Lars; Silventoinen, Karri

    2015-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: The obesity epidemic may have developed as a response to the obesogenic environment among the genetically predisposed. This investigation examined whether the intergenerational resemblances in childhood overweight changed across the development of the obesity epidemic in groups of chil......: Parent-child resemblance in childhood overweight showed small changes during the development of the obesity epidemic, suggesting that the obesogenic environment inducing the epidemic in Denmark influenced children irrespective of their familial predisposition.......OBJECTIVE: The obesity epidemic may have developed as a response to the obesogenic environment among the genetically predisposed. This investigation examined whether the intergenerational resemblances in childhood overweight changed across the development of the obesity epidemic in groups...

  7. Military veterans and Social Security.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olsen, Anya

    There are 9.4 million military veterans receiving Social Security benefits, which means that almost one out of every four adult Social Security beneficiaries has served in the United States military. In addition, veterans and their families make up almost 40 percent of the adult Social Security beneficiary population. Policymakers are particularly interested in military veterans and their families and have provided them with benefits through several government programs, including Social Security credits, home loan guarantees, and compensation and pension payments through the Department of Veterans Affairs. It is therefore important to understand the economic and demographic characteristics of this population. Information in this article is based on data from the March 2004 Current Population Survey, a large, nationally representative survey of U.S. households. Veterans are overwhelmingly male compared with all adult Social Security beneficiaries who are more evenly split between males and females. Military veterans receiving Social Security are more likely to be married and to have finished high school compared with all adult Social Security beneficiaries, and they are less likely to be poor or near poor than the overall beneficiary population. Fourteen percent of veterans receiving Social Security benefits have income below 150 percent of poverty, while 25 percent of all adult Social Security beneficiaries are below this level. The higher economic status among veterans is also reflected in the relatively high Social Security benefits they receive. The number of military veterans receiving Social Security benefits will remain high over the next few decades, while their make-up and characteristics will change. In particular, the number of Vietnam War veterans who receive Social Security will increase in the coming decades, while the number of veterans from World War II and the Korean War will decline.

  8. Predicting and controlling infectious disease epidemics using temporal networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masuda, Naoki; Holme, Petter

    2013-01-01

    Infectious diseases can be considered to spread over social networks of people or animals. Mainly owing to the development of data recording and analysis techniques, an increasing amount of social contact data with time stamps has been collected in the last decade. Such temporal data capture the dynamics of social networks on a timescale relevant to epidemic spreading and can potentially lead to better ways to analyze, forecast, and prevent epidemics. However, they also call for extended analysis tools for network epidemiology, which has, to date, mostly viewed networks as static entities. We review recent results of network epidemiology for such temporal network data and discuss future developments.

  9. Ebola epidemic of 2014-2015: unresolved ethical issues.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garbuglia, Anna Rosa

    2016-01-01

    Some ethical aspects of the management of the Ebola epidemic in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone which started in January 2014, have been questionable. First, as regards the prevention of the spread of the virus, the necessary epidemiological investigations on the origin of the infection were not carried out adequately and this did not help to curb the spread of the disease. A disparity has been observed between the western and African countries' access to the treatment of patients; this infringes on the principle of equality. This paper also focuses on how the Global Public Goods for Health principle was not fully respected in the management of the epidemic.

  10. Epidemic Increase in Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus in Copenhagen

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Westh, Henrik; Boye, Kit; Bartels, Mette Damkjær

    2006-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: We have found an epidemic increase in methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) in Copenhagen. The increase has a complex background and involves hospitals, nursing homes and persons nursed in their own home. MATERIAL AND METHODS: We found 33 MRSA patients in 2003 and 121...... in 2004. All isolates have been spa-typed and epidemiologic information collected. RESULTS: The number of MRSA cases has a doubling time of about six months. The epidemic has been caused by many different MRSA types and 31 staphylococcus protein A genotypes (spa types). MRSA has caused several hospital...

  11. Reiter′s Disease - Clinical Profile of Epidemic Form

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H S Girgia

    1980-01-01

    Full Text Available Absence of urethritis need not exclude the possiblity of Reiter′s disease in young males where conjunctivitis and polyarthritis are cardinal features. Appearance of cutaneous lesion early in the course of the disease heralds a poor prognosis specially in the rare epidemic form of the disease. Two cases of Reiter′s disease are reported. Both belonged to the dysentric type of the disease; sometimes ref to as the epidemic form. Relatively high dose of steroids necessary to control symptoms.

  12. Ebola Virus Epidemic in West Africa and Beyond

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oscar G Gómez-Duarte

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Is there a reason to fear that an Ebola outbreak may strike Latin America? The fear may not be unreasonable taking into account the history of epidemics that have affected the American continent since colonization times in 1492. Old World small pox epidemics spread and killed millions of Native Americans north and south from the equator. Imported West Nile virus infections reported in New York in 1999 dramatically spread East to West of the United States. Most recently, Chikungunya virus arrived to Central America in 2013 and has already infected close to 1 million people in Mexico, Central American countries, Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyanas, Paraguay, and Venezuela.

  13. Random migration processes between two stochastic epidemic centers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sazonov, Igor; Kelbert, Mark; Gravenor, Michael B

    2016-04-01

    We consider the epidemic dynamics in stochastic interacting population centers coupled by random migration. Both the epidemic and the migration processes are modeled by Markov chains. We derive explicit formulae for the probability distribution of the migration process, and explore the dependence of outbreak patterns on initial parameters, population sizes and coupling parameters, using analytical and numerical methods. We show the importance of considering the movement of resident and visitor individuals separately. The mean field approximation for a general migration process is derived and an approximate method that allows the computation of statistical moments for networks with highly populated centers is proposed and tested numerically. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Network Performance Improvement under Epidemic Failures in Optical Transport Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fagertun, Anna Manolova; Ruepp, Sarah Renée

    2013-01-01

    In this paper we investigate epidemic failure spreading in large- scale GMPLS-controlled transport networks. By evaluating the effect of the epidemic failure spreading on the network, we design several strategies for cost-effective network performance improvement via differentiated repair times....... First we identify the most vulnerable and the most strategic nodes in the network. Then, via extensive simulations we show that strategic placement of resources for improved failure recovery has better performance than randomly assigning lower repair times among the network nodes. Our OPNET simulation...... model can be used during the network planning process for facilitating cost- effective network survivability design....

  15. The effect of heterogeneity on invasion in spatial epidemics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Neri, Franco M; Bates, Anne; Füchtbauer, Winnie Sophie

    2011-01-01

    Heterogeneity in host populations is an important factor affecting the ability of a pathogen to invade, yet the quantitative investigation of its effects on epidemic spread is still an open problem. In this paper, we test recent theoretical results, which extend the established “percolation...... paradigm” to the spread of a pathogen in discrete heterogeneous host populations. In particular, we test the hypothesis that the probability of epidemic invasion decreases when host heterogeneity is increased. We use replicated experimental microcosms, in which the ubiquitous pathogenic fungus Rhizoctonia...

  16. Stochastic epidemic-type model with enhanced connectivity: exact solution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Williams, H T; Mazilu, I; Mazilu, D A

    2012-01-01

    We present an exact analytical solution to a one-dimensional model of the susceptible–infected–recovered (SIR) epidemic type, with infection rates dependent on nearest-neighbor occupations. We use a quantum mechanical approach, transforming the master equation via a quantum spin operator formulation. We calculate exactly the time-dependent density of infected, recovered and susceptible populations for random initial conditions. Our results compare well with those of previous work, validating the model as a useful tool for additional and extended studies in this important area. Our model also provides exact solutions for the n-point correlation functions, and can be extended to more complex epidemic-type models

  17. Usefulness of maternal serum C-reactive protein with vaginal Ureaplasma urealyticum as a marker for prediction of imminent preterm delivery and chorioamnionitis in patients with preterm labor or preterm premature rupture of membranes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwak, Dong-Wook; Cho, Hee-Young; Kwon, Ja-Young; Park, Yong-Won; Kim, Young-Han

    2015-07-01

    To assess whether maternal serum C-reactive protein (CRP) and genital mycoplasmas measured can help predict imminent preterm delivery or chorioamnionitis in patients with preterm labor (PL) or preterm premature rupture of membranes (PPROM). The study group consisted of 165 women with PL or PPROM. Vaginal cultures for genital mycoplasmas and maternal blood for CRP were obtained when they were admitted for the management of PL or PPROM. An elevated level of serum CRP was defined as ≥0.8 mg/dL. Histologic evaluation of the placenta was performed after delivery. The prevalence of positive vaginal fluid cultures for Ureaplasma urealyticum (UU) was 63.0%, and elevated maternal serum CRP was 32.7%. No outcome variables were associated with vaginal UU infection in patients with lower CRP levels. However, among women with elevated CRP, the mean gestational age at birth was significantly reduced, and low Apgar score, neonatal intensive care unit admission, histologic chorioamnionitis, and delivery within 7 days of admission were significantly more common in patients with vaginal UU. Although vaginal UU in PL or PPROM cannot act as the sole predictor of imminent preterm delivery or chorioamnionitis, it can provide predictive information in patients with elevated maternal serum CRP levels.

  18. Epidemiologic characteristics and military implications of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in croatia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mulić, Rosanda; Ropac, Darko

    2002-10-01

    To analyze epidemiologic characteristics of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Croatia, including military implications of the disease and measures for its prevention. We analyzed data from obligatory infectious disease reports and notification of deaths due to infectious diseases, data on the hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome epidemics in Croatia, and data collected by survey of the population, serological findings, and studies of wild rodents serving as reservoirs of the infection. During the 1987-2001 period, 235 cases of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome were recorded in Croatia, with 147 (62.6%) of them among Croatian Army soldiers. Mortality rate was up to 15.4% (mean 2.2%) (5/235). The highest number of cases was recorded in months of June and July, ie, during the warm season characterized by increased activity of both the animals acting as infection reservoirs and humans as hosts. The known natural foci of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome have been Plitvice and Slunj areas, Velika and Mala Kapela mountains, Zagreb area (Velika Gorica and Jastrebarsko), west Slavonia, Novska area, and Dinara Mountain. The disease has not been recorded in the littoral area and Adriatic islands. The identified causative agents include Dobrava and Puumala viruses of the genus Hantavirus, whereas rodents Clethrionomys glareolus, Apodemus flavicollis, Apodemus agrarius, and Apodemus sylvaticus serve as the main reservoirs of the infection. Typical biotopes of the infection in Croatia are deciduous woods. The measures of prevention in Croatia include pest control, disinfection, hygienic waste disposal, preventing rodent access to food and water, proper choice of camping sites, and health education. Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome occurs predominantly in soldiers, in a sporadic or epidemic form. Because of the course of disease and potentially lethal outcome, the disease has a considerable impact on the field task performance and combat readiness of

  19. Canadian Model of Military Leadership as a Successful Mixture of Civilian and Military Experiences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Piotr Malinowski

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The origins of military leadership are rooted in ancient times and its embodiment are great chieftains and commanders. However, since the moment when in organisation and management sciences the civil theories of leadership started to emerge, the military forces have incorporated their solutions to structure the assumptions of new, coherent and effective models of military leadership. A good example of such solutions is the Canadian model of military leadership, competently merging the civil theories with experience and needs of the military environment. This solution may be a perfect example of effective application of leadership theory to modify the existing national model of military leadership and construct a more efficient one.

  20. Military Gay Ban Revisited: Is our Military Ready for Change?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-02-20

    support from the lesbian, gay, bi-sexual, transgender ( LGBT ) community and in return made several campaign promises along the way. One of the campaign ...Lesbian, Gay, Bi-sexual, Transgender] ( LGBT ) rights is exploited by those seeking to divide us. But at its core, this issue is about who we are as...No. 85. July 2007. Donnelly, Elaine. Who Will Confront the “ LGBT Left?”. Center for Military Readiness. (5 February 2008). Frank

  1. Cultural Practices and the HIV Epidemic in Swaziland: Student\\'s ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    International Journal of Educational Research ... Cultural Practices and the HIV Epidemic in Swaziland: Student\\'s Perspectives and Challenges for School Counsellors ... Keywords: Cultural Practices, HIV Epidemic; Behaviour Change.

  2. A threshold limit theorem for the stochastic logistic epidemic

    OpenAIRE

    Andersson, Håkan; Djehiche, Boualem

    1998-01-01

    The time until extinction for the closed SIS stochastic logistic epidemic model is investigated. We derive the asymptotic distribution for the extinction time as the population grows to infinity, under different initial conditions and for different values of the infection rate.

  3. The threshold of a stochastic SIQS epidemic model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xiao-Bing; Huo, Hai-Feng; Xiang, Hong; Shi, Qihong; Li, Dungang

    2017-09-01

    In this paper, we present the threshold of a stochastic SIQS epidemic model which determines the extinction and persistence of the disease. Furthermore, we find that noise can suppress the disease outbreak. Numerical simulations are also carried out to confirm the analytical results.

  4. Alkaline stabilization of manure slurry inactivates porcine epidemic diarrhea virus

    Science.gov (United States)

    The porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDv) outbreak in North America has substantially impacted swine production since it causes nearly 100% mortality in infected pre-weaned piglets. The PED virus is transmitted via the fecal oral route and manure may remain a source of reinfection; therefore, prop...

  5. How to Estimate Epidemic Risk from Incomplete Contact Diaries Data?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mastrandrea, Rossana; Barrat, Alain

    2016-06-01

    Social interactions shape the patterns of spreading processes in a population. Techniques such as diaries or proximity sensors allow to collect data about encounters and to build networks of contacts between individuals. The contact networks obtained from these different techniques are however quantitatively different. Here, we first show how these discrepancies affect the prediction of the epidemic risk when these data are fed to numerical models of epidemic spread: low participation rate, under-reporting of contacts and overestimation of contact durations in contact diaries with respect to sensor data determine indeed important differences in the outcomes of the corresponding simulations with for instance an enhanced sensitivity to initial conditions. Most importantly, we investigate if and how information gathered from contact diaries can be used in such simulations in order to yield an accurate description of the epidemic risk, assuming that data from sensors represent the ground truth. The contact networks built from contact sensors and diaries present indeed several structural similarities: this suggests the possibility to construct, using only the contact diary network information, a surrogate contact network such that simulations using this surrogate network give the same estimation of the epidemic risk as simulations using the contact sensor network. We present and compare several methods to build such surrogate data, and show that it is indeed possible to obtain a good agreement between the outcomes of simulations using surrogate and sensor data, as long as the contact diary information is complemented by publicly available data describing the heterogeneity of the durations of human contacts.

  6. Epidemic Processes on Complex Networks : Modelling, Simulation and Algorithms

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van de Bovenkamp, R.

    2015-01-01

    Local interactions on a graph will lead to global dynamic behaviour. In this thesis we focus on two types of dynamic processes on graphs: the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptilbe (SIS) virus spreading model, and gossip style epidemic algorithms. The largest part of this thesis is devoted to the SIS

  7. Simulating individual-based models of epidemics in hierarchical networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Quax, R.; Bader, D.A.; Sloot, P.M.A.

    2009-01-01

    Current mathematical modeling methods for the spreading of infectious diseases are too simplified and do not scale well. We present the Simulator of Epidemic Evolution in Complex Networks (SEECN), an efficient simulator of detailed individual-based models by parameterizing separate dynamics

  8. Some Empirical Notes on the Epo Epidemic in Professional Cycling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lodewijkx, Hein F. M.; Brouwer, Bram

    2011-01-01

    The 1990-2010 period in professional cycling is labeled by some as the epo epidemic. Surprisingly, performance enhancement by epo and blood doping is not that clear-cut for endurance athletes, leading to the question whether doping indeed strongly influenced cyclists' performances from the 1990s onwards. We examined the records (1947-2008) of the…

  9. Cardiovascular disease: A Global Epidemic extending into Sub ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background: Cardiovascular disease is a global epidemic; the prevalence is currently stable in the developed world but is on a rapid rise in the developing world particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa. It is the commonest cause of morbidity and mortality globally. Its victims are older in the developed world but younger in Africa ...

  10. Perspectives of Spatial Scale in a Wildland Forest Epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    W.W. Dillon; S.E. Haas; D.M. Rizzo; R.K. Meentemeyer

    2014-01-01

    The challenge of observing interactions between plant pathogens, their hosts, and environmental heterogeneity across multiple spatial scales commonly limits our ability to understand and manage wildland forest epidemics. Using the forest pathogen Phytophthora ramorum as a case study, we established 20 multiscale field sites to analyze how host-...

  11. [Paediatric emergencies; example of the management of winter epidemics].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mercier, Jean-Christophe; Bellettre, Xavier; Lejay, Émilie; Desmarest, Marie; Titomanlio, Luigi

    2015-01-01

    Every year, epidemics of viral bronchiolitis and gastroenteritis occur with a significant increase in the number of visits (by a factor 1.8) and hospitalisations that can over-exceed bed capacity leading to transfer sick children to other hospitals. This kind of hospital 'crisis' is not limited to paediatrics, big cities or western nations. It is a worldwide worrying problem. Because our hospital sits in the Northern districts of Paris where a large community of m.ncants lives in poverty, our number of visits is high (mean 250 per day), and winter epidemics further jeopardise the difficult equilibrium achieved between quality management and waiting times. Thus, we have taken various initiatives in terms of organisation of the paediatric emergency department and other wards, including a "fast track" clinic, the opening of beds dedicated to winter epidemics, the institution of a "bed manager" in order to more easily find a bed, and a larger use of home hospitalisations. Furthermore, we created a specific committee which may decide on various indicators of tension whether it is necessary to cancel programmed hospitalisations or surgery.in order to resolve the emergency crisis. This kind of organisation can serve as a model for other hospitals facing winter epidemics crises.

  12. The epidemic of Athens, 430 - 426 BC | Retief | South African ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... number of scholars who studied the subject, Thucydides' description does not accurately fit any existing disease, but we suggest that analysis of the signs and symptoms, considered in conjunction with significant epidemiological evidence, narrows down the many possibilities to epidemic typhus, plague, arboviral disease ...

  13. Overcrowding and disease epidemics in colonial Lagos: rethinking ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Thus, it degenerated to overcrowding and disease epidemics as epitomised by the outbreak of tuberculosis and bubonic plague in 1919 and between 1924 and 1930 respectively. The paper, therefore, concludes that with the available evidence at our disposal, it is obvious that the road and railway were constructed to ...

  14. Virulence evolution at the front line of spreading epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griette, Quentin; Raoul, Gaël; Gandon, Sylvain

    2015-11-01

    Understanding and predicting the spatial spread of emerging pathogens is a major challenge for the public health management of infectious diseases. Theoretical epidemiology shows that the speed of an epidemic is governed by the life-history characteristics of the pathogen and its ability to disperse. Rapid evolution of these traits during the invasion may thus affect the speed of epidemics. Here we study the influence of virulence evolution on the spatial spread of an epidemic. At the edge of the invasion front, we show that more virulent and transmissible genotypes are expected to win the competition with other pathogens. Behind the front line, however, more prudent exploitation strategies outcompete virulent pathogens. Crucially, even when the presence of the virulent mutant is limited to the edge of the front, the invasion speed can be dramatically altered by pathogen evolution. We support our analysis with individual-based simulations and we discuss the additional effects of demographic stochasticity taking place at the front line on virulence evolution. We confirm that an increase of virulence can occur at the front, but only if the carrying capacity of the invading pathogen is large enough. These results are discussed in the light of recent empirical studies examining virulence evolution at the edge of spreading epidemics. © 2015 The Author(s). Evolution © 2015 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

  15. Topology dependent epidemic spreading velocity in weighted networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Duan, W.; Quax, R.; Lees, M.; Qiu, X.; Sloot, P.M.A.

    2014-01-01

    Many diffusive processes occur on structured networks with weighted links, such as disease spread by airplane transport or information diffusion in social networks or blogs. Understanding the impact of weight-connectivity correlations on epidemic spreading in weighted networks is crucial to support

  16. Addressing the "Epidemic" of Overweight Children by Using the Internet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coleman, Mick; Wallinga, Charlotte; Bales, Diane

    2009-01-01

    The Internet can be of great assistance to early childhood teachers in planning educational activities for the classroom and with families. This article explores how early childhood teachers can use resources online to address what has been called an "epidemic" of overweight children. Guidelines for using online resources are presented. (Contains…

  17. Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea Virus among Farmed Pigs, Ukraine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dastjerdi, Akbar; Carr, John; Ellis, Richard J; Steinbach, Falko; Williamson, Susanna

    2015-12-01

    An outbreak of porcine epidemic diarrhea occurred in the summer of 2014 in Ukraine, severely affecting piglets <10 days of age; the mortality rate approached 100%. Full genome sequencing showed the virus to be closely related to strains reported from North America, showing a sequence identity of up to 99.8%.

  18. Resolving epidemic network failures through differentiated repair times

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fagertun, Anna Manolova; Ruepp, Sarah Renée; Manzano, Marc

    2015-01-01

    In this study, the authors investigate epidemic failure spreading in large-scale transport networks under generalisedmulti-protocol label switching control plane. By evaluating the effect of the epidemic failure spreading on the network,they design several strategies for cost-effective network pe...... assigninglower repair times among the network nodes. They believe that the event-driven simulation model can be highly beneficialfor network providers, since it could be used during the network planning process for facilitating cost-effective networksurvivability design.......In this study, the authors investigate epidemic failure spreading in large-scale transport networks under generalisedmulti-protocol label switching control plane. By evaluating the effect of the epidemic failure spreading on the network,they design several strategies for cost-effective network...... performance improvement via differentiated repair times. First, theyidentify the most vulnerable and the most strategic nodes in the network. Then, via extensive event-driven simulations theyshow that strategic placement of resources for improved failure recovery has better performance than randomly...

  19. Effect of risk perception on epidemic spreading in temporal networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moinet, Antoine; Pastor-Satorras, Romualdo; Barrat, Alain

    2018-01-01

    Many progresses in the understanding of epidemic spreading models have been obtained thanks to numerous modeling efforts and analytical and numerical studies, considering host populations with very different structures and properties, including complex and temporal interaction networks. Moreover, a number of recent studies have started to go beyond the assumption of an absence of coupling between the spread of a disease and the structure of the contacts on which it unfolds. Models including awareness of the spread have been proposed, to mimic possible precautionary measures taken by individuals that decrease their risk of infection, but have mostly considered static networks. Here, we adapt such a framework to the more realistic case of temporal networks of interactions between individuals. We study the resulting model by analytical and numerical means on both simple models of temporal networks and empirical time-resolved contact data. Analytical results show that the epidemic threshold is not affected by the awareness but that the prevalence can be significantly decreased. Numerical studies on synthetic temporal networks highlight, however, the presence of very strong finite-size effects, resulting in a significant shift of the effective epidemic threshold in the presence of risk awareness. For empirical contact networks, the awareness mechanism leads as well to a shift in the effective threshold and to a strong reduction of the epidemic prevalence.

  20. The effect of awareness on networked SIS epidemics

    KAUST Repository

    Paarporn, Keith

    2017-01-05

    We study an SIS epidemic model over an arbitrary fixed network topology where the n agents, or nodes of the network, have partial information about the epidemic state. The agents react by distancing themselves from their neighbors when they believe the epidemic is currently prevalent. An agent\\'s awareness is weighted from three sources of information: the fraction of infected neighbors in their contact network, their social network, and a global broadcast of the fraction of infected nodes in the entire network. The dynamics of the benchmark (no awareness) and awareness models are described by discrete-time 2-state Markov chains. Through a coupling technique, we establish monotonicity properties between the benchmark and awareness models. Particularly, we show that the expectation of any increasing random variable on the space of sample paths, e.g. eradication time or total infections, is lower for the awareness model. In addition, we give a characterization for this difference of expectations in terms of the coupling distribution. In simulations, we evaluate how different sources of information affect the spread of an epidemic.