WorldWideScience

Sample records for identify causal relationships

  1. ["Karoshi" and causal relationships].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamajima, N

    1992-08-01

    This paper aims to introduce a measure for use by physicians for stating the degree of probable causal relationship for "Karoshi", ie, a sudden death from cerebrovascular diseases or ischemic heart diseases under occupational stresses, as well as to give a brief description for legal procedures associated with worker's compensation and civil trial in Japan. It is a well-used measure in epidemiology, "attributable risk percent (AR%)", which can be applied to describe the extent of contribution to "Karoshi" of the excess occupational burdens the deceased worker was forced to bear. Although several standards such as average occupational burdens for the worker, average occupational burdens for an ordinary worker, burdens in a nonoccupational life, and a complete rest, might be considered for the AR% estimation, the average occupational burdens for an ordinary worker should normally be utilized as a standard for worker's compensation. The adoption of AR% could be helpful for courts to make a consistent judgement whether "Karoshi" cases are compensatable or not.

  2. The mistake of the causal relationship

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    О. Д. Комаров

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with issues of the mistake of the causal relationship. The modern criminal law science approaches to the content of the mistake of the causal relationship and its significance to the qualification of the crime are described. It is proved that in cases of dolus generalis different mental attitude of the guilty person to two separate acts of his conduct exist. Consequently, in mentioned above cases mistake of the causal relationship does not have place. The rules of qualification of the crimes commited with the mistake of causation and in cases of dolus generalis are proposed .

  3. Probable autoimmune causal relationship between periodontitis and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Periodontitis is a multifactorial disease with microbial dental plaque as the initiator of periodontal disease. However, the manifestation and progression of the disease is influenced by a wide variety of determinants and factors. The strongest type of causal relationship is the association of systemic and periodontal disease.

  4. Causality relationship between energy demand and economic ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper attempts to examine the causal relationship between electricity demand and economic growth in Nigeria using data for 1970 – 2003. The study uses the Johansen cointegration VAR approach. The ADF and Phillips – Perron test statistics were used to test for stationarity of the data. It was found that the data were ...

  5. Causal Relationships in the Balanced Scorecard: A Path Analysis Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Yael Perlman

    2013-01-01

    We use path analysis to identify causal relationships between different performance measures in each of the four perspectives defined in the balanced scorecard and examine the influence of time lag on relationships between perspectives. We analyze performance data from a real high-tech company. Our results point to a direct relationship between leading measures in the learning and growth perspective and lagging measures in the financial perspective. Our findings also support the existence of ...

  6. On asymmetric causal relationships in Petropolitics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Balan Feyza

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to examine whether the First Law of Petropolitics denominated by Friedman in 2006 is valid for OPEC countries. To do this, this paper analyses the relationship between political risk and oil supply by applying the asymmetric panel causality test suggested by Hatemi-J (2011 to these countries for the period 1984-2014. The results show that the First Law of Petropolitics is valid for Angola, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, given that positive oil supply shocks significantly lead to negative political stability shocks, and negative oil supply shocks significantly lead to positive shocks in political stability.

  7. Dynamics and causalities of atmospheric and oceanic data identified by complex networks and Granger causality analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charakopoulos, A. K.; Katsouli, G. A.; Karakasidis, T. E.

    2018-04-01

    Understanding the underlying processes and extracting detailed characteristics of spatiotemporal dynamics of ocean and atmosphere as well as their interaction is of significant interest and has not been well thoroughly established. The purpose of this study was to examine the performance of two main additional methodologies for the identification of spatiotemporal underlying dynamic characteristics and patterns among atmospheric and oceanic variables from Seawatch buoys from Aegean and Ionian Sea, provided by the Hellenic Center for Marine Research (HCMR). The first approach involves the estimation of cross correlation analysis in an attempt to investigate time-lagged relationships, and further in order to identify the direction of interactions between the variables we performed the Granger causality method. According to the second approach the time series are converted into complex networks and then the main topological network properties such as degree distribution, average path length, diameter, modularity and clustering coefficient are evaluated. Our results show that the proposed analysis of complex network analysis of time series can lead to the extraction of hidden spatiotemporal characteristics. Also our findings indicate high level of positive and negative correlations and causalities among variables, both from the same buoy and also between buoys from different stations, which cannot be determined from the use of simple statistical measures.

  8. The causal relationship between Foreign Direct Investment (FDI ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The causal relationship between Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and the ... of selected west African countries: Panel ARDL/Granger Causality Analysis. ... among this developing countries and an important revelation for policy implication.

  9. Causal relationship: a new tool for the causal characterization of Lorentzian manifolds

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garcia-Parrado, Alfonso; Senovilla, Jose M M

    2003-01-01

    We define and study a new kind of relation between two diffeomorphic Lorentzian manifolds called a causal relation, which is any diffeomorphism characterized by mapping every causal vector of the first manifold onto a causal vector of the second. We perform a thorough study of the mathematical properties of causal relations and prove in particular that two given Lorentzian manifolds (say V and W) may be causally related only in one direction (say from V to W, but not from W to V). This leads us to the concept of causally equivalent (or isocausal in short) Lorentzian manifolds as those mutually causally related and to a definition of causal structure over a differentiable manifold as the equivalence class formed by isocausal Lorentzian metrics upon it. Isocausality is a more general concept than the conformal relationship, because we prove the remarkable result that a conformal relation φ is characterized by the fact of being a causal relation of the particular kind in which both φ and φ -1 are causal relations. Isocausal Lorentzian manifolds are mutually causally compatible, they share some important causal properties, and there are one-to-one correspondences, which are sometimes non-trivial, between several classes of their respective future (and past) objects. A more important feature is that they satisfy the same standard causality constraints. We also introduce a partial order for the equivalence classes of isocausal Lorentzian manifolds providing a classification of all the causal structures that a given fixed manifold can have. By introducing the concept of causal extension we put forward a new definition of causal boundary for Lorentzian manifolds based on the concept of isocausality, and thereby we generalize the traditional Penrose constructions of conformal infinity, diagrams and embeddings. In particular, the concept of causal diagram is given. Many explicit clarifying examples are presented throughout the paper

  10. Causality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearl, Judea

    2000-03-01

    Written by one of the pre-eminent researchers in the field, this book provides a comprehensive exposition of modern analysis of causation. It shows how causality has grown from a nebulous concept into a mathematical theory with significant applications in the fields of statistics, artificial intelligence, philosophy, cognitive science, and the health and social sciences. Pearl presents a unified account of the probabilistic, manipulative, counterfactual and structural approaches to causation, and devises simple mathematical tools for analyzing the relationships between causal connections, statistical associations, actions and observations. The book will open the way for including causal analysis in the standard curriculum of statistics, artifical intelligence, business, epidemiology, social science and economics. Students in these areas will find natural models, simple identification procedures, and precise mathematical definitions of causal concepts that traditional texts have tended to evade or make unduly complicated. This book will be of interest to professionals and students in a wide variety of fields. Anyone who wishes to elucidate meaningful relationships from data, predict effects of actions and policies, assess explanations of reported events, or form theories of causal understanding and causal speech will find this book stimulating and invaluable.

  11. Causal Relationship between Construction Production and GDP in Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hakkı Kutay Bolkol

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This study empirically investigates the causal relationship between construction production and GDP for Turkey during 2005Q1-2013Q4 period. Because it is found that, there is no cointegration which means there is no long run relationship between variables, VAR Granger Causality Method is used to test the causality in short run. The findings reveal that, the causality runs from GDP to Building Production and Building Production to Non-Building Production (i.e. bidirectional relationship. Findings of this paper suggest that, because there is no long run relationship between Construction Production (Building and Non-Building and GDP and also in short run the causality runs from GDP to Construction Production, the growth strategy based on mainly Construction Sector growth is not a good idea for Turkey.

  12. Causal Relationship between Construction Production and GDP in Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hakkı Kutay Bolkol

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available This study empirically investigates the causal relationship between construction production and GDP for Turkey during 2005Q1-2013Q4 period. Because it is found that, there is no cointegration which means there is no long run relationship between variables, VAR Granger Causality Method is used to test the causality in short run. The findings reveal that, the causality runs from GDP to Building Production and Building Production to Non-Building Production (i.e. bidirectional relationship. Findings of this paper suggest that, because there is no long run relationship between Construction Production (Building and Non-Building and GDP and also in short run the causality runs from GDP to Construction Production, the growth strategy based on mainly Construction Sector growth is not a good idea for Turkey.

  13. Identifying causal linkages between environmental variables and African conflicts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguy-Robertson, A. L.; Dartevelle, S.

    2017-12-01

    Environmental variables that contribute to droughts, flooding, and other natural hazards are often identified as factors contributing to conflict; however, few studies attempt to quantify these causal linkages. Recent research has demonstrated that the environment operates within a dynamical system framework and the influence of variables can be identified from convergent cross mapping (CCM) between shadow manifolds. We propose to use CCM to identify causal linkages between environmental variables and incidences of conflict. This study utilizes time series data from Climate Forecast System ver. 2 and MODIS satellite sensors processed using Google Earth Engine to aggregate country and regional trends. These variables are then compared to Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project observations at similar scales. Results provide relative rankings of variables and their linkage to conflict. Being able to identify which factors contributed more strongly to a conflict can allow policy makers to prepare solutions to mitigate future crises. Knowledge of the primary environmental factors can lead to the identification of other variables to examine in the causal network influencing conflict.

  14. Causal Relationship Between Relative Price Variability and Inflation in Turkey:

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nebiye Yamak

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available This study investigates the causal relationship between inflation and relative price variability in Turkey for the period of January 2003-January 2014, by using panel data. In the study, a Granger (1969 non-causality test in heterogeneous panel data models developed by Dumitrescu and Hurlin (2012 is utilized to determine the causal relations between inflation rate relative price variability. The panel data consists of 4123 observations: 133 time observations and 31 cross-section observations. The results of panel causality test indicate that there is a bidirectional causality between inflation rate and relative price variability by not supporting the imperfection information model of Lucas and the menu cost model of Ball and Mankiw.

  15. Causality relationship between electricity consumption and GDP in Bangladesh

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mozumder, Pallab; Marathe, Achla

    2007-01-01

    In this paper, we examine the causal relationship between the per capita electricity consumption and the per capita GDP for Bangladesh using cointegration and vector error correction model. Our results show that there is unidirectional causality from per capita GDP to per capita electricity consumption. However, the per capita electricity consumption does not cause per capita GDP in case of Bangladesh. The finding has significant implications from the point of view of energy conservation, emission reduction and economic development

  16. The Causal Relationship between Health and Education Expenditures in Malaysia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chor Foon TANG

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available A major macroeconomic policy in generating economic growth is to encourage investments on human capital such as health and education. This is because both health and education make significant contribution to increasing productivity of the labour force which ultimately exerts a positive effect on raising output levels. A question that arises is whether investments on health and education have a causal relationship and if so, what is the directional causality? The objective of this study is to examine the causal relationship between health and education expenditures in Malaysia. This study covered annual data from 1970 to 2007. Using Granger causality as well as Toda and Yamamoto MWALD causality approaches, this study suggests that education Granger-causes health expenditure in both the short run and long run. The findings of this study implied that the Malaysian society places preference on education expenditure rather than health. This preference is not unexpected as generally, an educated and knowledgeable society precedes a healthy one. Before a society has attained a relatively higher level of education, it is less aware of the importance of health. Thus, expenditure on education should lead expenditure on health.

  17. On the Temporal Causal Relationship Between Macroeconomic Variables

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Srinivasan Palamalai

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available The present study examines the dynamic interactions among macroeconomic variables such as real output, prices, money supply, interest rate (IR, and exchange rate (EXR in India during the pre-economic crisis and economic crisis periods, using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL bounds test for cointegration, Johansen and Juselius multivariate cointegration test, Granger causality/Block exogeneity Wald test based on Vector Error Correction Model, variance decomposition analysis and impulse response functions. The empirical results reveal a stronger long-run bilateral relationship between real output, price level, IR, and EXR during the pre-crisis sample period. Moreover, the empirical results confirm a unidirectional short-run causality running from price level to EXR, IR to price level, and real output to money supply during the pre-crisis period. Also, it is evident from the test results that there exist short-run bidirectional relationships running between real output and EXR, price level and IR, and IR and EXR in the pre-crisis era, respectively. Most importantly, long-run bidirectional causality is found between real output, EXR, and IR during the economic crisis period. And the study results indicate short-run bidirectional causality between money supply and EXR, IR and price level, and IR and output in India during the crisis era. Also, a short-run unidirectional causality runs from prices to real output in the crisis period.

  18. Mathematical Intelligence and Mathematical Creativity: A Causal Relationship

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tyagi, Tarun Kumar

    2017-01-01

    This study investigated the causal relationship between mathematical creativity and mathematical intelligence. Four hundred thirty-nine 8th-grade students, age ranged from 11 to 14 years, were included in the sample of this study by random cluster technique on which mathematical creativity and Hindi adaptation of mathematical intelligence test…

  19. Causal relationship between obesity and vitamin D status

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vimaleswaran, Karani S; Berry, Diane J; Lu, Chen

    2013-01-01

    Obesity is associated with vitamin D deficiency, and both are areas of active public health concern. We explored the causality and direction of the relationship between body mass index (BMI) and 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] using genetic markers as instrumental variables (IVs) in bi-directional ...

  20. Women's caregiving and paid work: causal relationships in late midlife.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pavalko, E K; Artis, J E

    1997-07-01

    Care of an ill or disabled family member or friend is disproportionately done by women and typically is done in late midlife. Because this is-also a time in the life course when women's labor force participation peaks, many women faced with caregiving demands have to decide how to balance them with their employment. In this study we use the National Longitudinal Survey (NLS) of Mature Women to examine the causal relationship between employment and caring for an ill or disabled friend or relative over a three-year period. We find that employment does not affect whether or not women start caregiving, but that women who do start are more likely to reduce employment hours or stop work. Thus, the causal relationship between employment and caregiving in late midlife is largely unidirectional, with women reducing hours to meet caregiving demands.

  1. CAUSAL RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN GRAIN, MEAT PRICES AND EXCHANGE RATES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Naveen Musunuru

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Understanding agricultural commodity price relationships are important as they help producers improve their awareness regarding production costs and ultimately aid in income determination. The present paper empirically examines the dynamic interrelationships among grain, meat prices and the U.S. dollar exchange rate. Johansen cointegration tests reveal no cointegrating relationships among the study variables. Majority of the commodities studied in the paper exhibited unidirectional causality except for corn and lean hogs. The vector autoregression (VAR model results indicate that the grain and meat prices are influenced by their own past prices. The role of exchange rates is found to be limited in linking the agricultural commodities.

  2. Further properties of causal relationship: causal structure stability, new criteria for isocausality and counterexamples

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garcia-Parrado, Alfonso; Sanchez, Miguel

    2005-01-01

    Recently (Garcia-Parrado and Senovilla 2003 Class. Quantum Grav. 20 625-64) the concept of causal mapping between spacetimes, essentially equivalent in this context to the chronological map defined in abstract chronological spaces, and the related notion of causal structure, have been introduced as new tools to study causality in Lorentzian geometry. In the present paper, these tools are further developed in several directions such as (i) causal mappings-and, thus, abstract chronological ones-do not preserve two levels of the standard hierarchy of causality conditions (however, they preserve the remaining levels as shown in the above reference), (ii) even though global hyperbolicity is a stable property (in the set of all time-oriented Lorentzian metrics on a fixed manifold), the causal structure of a globally hyperbolic spacetime can be unstable against perturbations; in fact, we show that the causal structures of Minkowski and Einstein static spacetimes remain stable, whereas that of de Sitter becomes unstable, (iii) general criteria allow us to discriminate different causal structures in some general spacetimes (e.g. globally hyperbolic, stationary standard); in particular, there are infinitely many different globally hyperbolic causal structures (and thus, different conformal ones) on R 2 (iv) plane waves with the same number of positive eigenvalues in the frequency matrix share the same causal structure and, thus, they have equal causal extensions and causal boundaries

  3. OPEC oil production and market fundamentals: a causality relationship

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dahmani, A.; Al-Osaimy, M.H.

    2001-01-01

    This paper first establishes a statistical measurement for OPEC Member Countries' compliance levels with their respective quotas and then examines the correlations and the casual relationships between compliance levels and oil market fundamentals. The compliance level is measured by the deviation of the production level from the respective quota for OPEC Member Countries, and this is based on the Euclidean distance formula, while oil market fundamentals are represented by OECD oil demand and stock levels, and the OPEC Basket price and oil supply. Monthly data from January 1996 to June 2000 was used and two sub-periods considered, where the first sub-period was characterized by a low level of compliance and the second by a high level. The analytical results of correlations and causality showed different directions of relationships between compliance levels and oil market fundamentals. (author)

  4. Predicting Causal Relationships from Biological Data: Applying Automated Causal Discovery on Mass Cytometry Data of Human Immune Cells

    KAUST Repository

    Triantafillou, Sofia; Lagani, Vincenzo; Heinze-Deml, Christina; Schmidt, Angelika; Tegner, Jesper; Tsamardinos, Ioannis

    2017-01-01

    Learning the causal relationships that define a molecular system allows us to predict how the system will respond to different interventions. Distinguishing causality from mere association typically requires randomized experiments. Methods for automated  causal discovery from limited experiments exist, but have so far rarely been tested in systems biology applications. In this work, we apply state-of-the art causal discovery methods on a large collection of public mass cytometry data sets, measuring intra-cellular signaling proteins of the human immune system and their response to several perturbations. We show how different experimental conditions can be used to facilitate causal discovery, and apply two fundamental methods that produce context-specific causal predictions. Causal predictions were reproducible across independent data sets from two different studies, but often disagree with the KEGG pathway databases. Within this context, we discuss the caveats we need to overcome for automated causal discovery to become a part of the routine data analysis in systems biology.

  5. Predicting Causal Relationships from Biological Data: Applying Automated Causal Discovery on Mass Cytometry Data of Human Immune Cells

    KAUST Repository

    Triantafillou, Sofia

    2017-09-29

    Learning the causal relationships that define a molecular system allows us to predict how the system will respond to different interventions. Distinguishing causality from mere association typically requires randomized experiments. Methods for automated  causal discovery from limited experiments exist, but have so far rarely been tested in systems biology applications. In this work, we apply state-of-the art causal discovery methods on a large collection of public mass cytometry data sets, measuring intra-cellular signaling proteins of the human immune system and their response to several perturbations. We show how different experimental conditions can be used to facilitate causal discovery, and apply two fundamental methods that produce context-specific causal predictions. Causal predictions were reproducible across independent data sets from two different studies, but often disagree with the KEGG pathway databases. Within this context, we discuss the caveats we need to overcome for automated causal discovery to become a part of the routine data analysis in systems biology.

  6. A Causal Relationship of Occupational Stress among University Employees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaewanuchit, Chonticha; Muntaner, Carles; Isha, Nizam

    2015-07-01

    Occupational stress is a psychosocial dimension of occupational health concept on social determinants of health, especially, job & environmental condition. Recently, staff network of different government universities of Thailand have called higher education commission, and Ministry of Education, Thailand to resolve the issue of government education policy (e.g. wage inequity, poor welfare, law, and job & environment condition) that leads to their job insecurity, physical and mental health problems from occupational stress. The aim of this study was to investigate a causal relationship of occupational stress among the academic university employees. This cross sectional research was conducted in 2014 among 2,000 academic university employees at Thai government universities using stratified random sampling. Independent variables were wage, family support, periods of duty, and job & environmental condition. Dependent variable was stress. Job & environmental condition, as social and environmental factor, and periods of duty as individual factor had direct effect to stress (Pstress (P occupational stress among academic university employees at moderate level.

  7. Creating a memory of causal relationships an integration of empirical and explanation-based learning methods

    CERN Document Server

    Pazzani, Michael J

    2014-01-01

    This book presents a theory of learning new causal relationships by making use of perceived regularities in the environment, general knowledge of causality, and existing causal knowledge. Integrating ideas from the psychology of causation and machine learning, the author introduces a new learning procedure called theory-driven learning that uses abstract knowledge of causality to guide the induction process. Known as OCCAM, the system uses theory-driven learning when new experiences conform to common patterns of causal relationships, empirical learning to learn from novel experiences, and expl

  8. Testing causal relationships between wholesale electricity prices and primary energy prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nakajima, Tadahiro; Hamori, Shigeyuki

    2013-01-01

    We apply the lag-augmented vector autoregression technique to test the Granger-causal relationships among wholesale electricity prices, natural gas prices, and crude oil prices. In addition, by adopting a cross-correlation function approach, we test not only the causality in mean but also the causality in variance between the variables. The results of tests using both techniques show that gas prices Granger-cause electricity prices in mean. We find no Granger-causality in variance among these variables. -- Highlights: •We test the Granger-causality among wholesale electricity and primary energy prices. •We test not only the causality in mean but also the causality in variance. •The results show that gas prices Granger-cause electricity prices in mean. •We find no Granger-causality in variance among these variables

  9. Is there a causal relationship between alcohol and HIV? Implications ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    There is now conclusive evidence of a causal linkage between heavy drinking patterns and/or alcohol use disorders and the worsening of the disease course for HIV. However, while alcohol usage is consistently associated with the prevalence and incidence of HIV, further research is needed to substantiate causality in ...

  10. Causal Relationships Among Time Series of the Lange Bramke Catchment (Harz Mountains, Germany)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aufgebauer, Britta; Hauhs, Michael; Bogner, Christina; Meesenburg, Henning; Lange, Holger

    2016-04-01

    Convergent Cross Mapping (CCM) has recently been introduced by Sugihara et al. for the identification and quantification of causal relationships among ecosystem variables. In particular, the method allows to decide on the direction of causality; in some cases, the causality might be bidirectional, indicating a network structure. We extend this approach by introducing a method of surrogate data to obtain confidence intervals for CCM results. We then apply this method to time series from stream water chemistry. Specifically, we analyze a set of eight dissolved major ions from three different catchments belonging to the hydrological monitoring system at the Bramke valley in the Harz Mountains, Germany. Our results demonstrate the potentials and limits of CCM as a monitoring instrument in forestry and hydrology or as a tool to identify processes in ecosystem research. While some networks of causally linked ions can be associated with simple physical and chemical processes, other results illustrate peculiarities of the three studied catchments, which are explained in the context of their special history.

  11. A Causal Relationship of Occupational Stress among University Employees

    Science.gov (United States)

    KAEWANUCHIT, Chonticha; MUNTANER, Carles; ISHA, Nizam

    2015-01-01

    Background: Occupational stress is a psychosocial dimension of occupational health concept on social determinants of health, especially, job & environmental condition. Recently, staff network of different government universities of Thailand have called higher education commission, and Ministry of Education, Thailand to resolve the issue of government education policy (e.g. wage inequity, poor welfare, law, and job & environment condition) that leads to their job insecurity, physical and mental health problems from occupational stress. The aim of this study was to investigate a causal relationship of occupational stress among the academic university employees. Methods: This cross sectional research was conducted in 2014 among 2,000 academic university employees at Thai government universities using stratified random sampling. Independent variables were wage, family support, periods of duty, and job & environmental condition. Dependent variable was stress. Results: Job & environmental condition, as social and environmental factor, and periods of duty as individual factor had direct effect to stress (Pstress (P stress among academic university employees at moderate level. PMID:26576371

  12. Causality relationship between the price of oil and economic growth in Japan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hanabusa, Kunihiro

    2009-01-01

    This paper investigates the relationship between the price of oil and economic growth in Japan during the period from 2000 to 2008 using an exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (EGARCH) model. We employ a residual cross-correlation function (CCF) approach developed by [Cheung, Y.W., Ng, N.K., 1996. A causality-in-variance test and its application to financial market prices. Journal of Econometrics 72, 33-48]. The empirical results reveal that the economic growth rate Granger-causes the change of oil price in mean and variance and the change of oil price Granger-causes the economic growth rate in mean and variance. Previous studies have analyzed the response of economic activity to oil price shocks. However, we analyze the causality relations for both means and variances, and identify the direction of information flow and the timing of causation. (author)

  13. The relationship of family characteristics and bipolar disorder using causal-pie models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Y-C; Kao, C-F; Lu, M-K; Yang, Y-K; Liao, S-C; Jang, F-L; Chen, W J; Lu, R-B; Kuo, P-H

    2014-01-01

    Many family characteristics were reported to increase the risk of bipolar disorder (BPD). The development of BPD may be mediated through different pathways, involving diverse risk factor profiles. We evaluated the associations of family characteristics to build influential causal-pie models to estimate their contributions on the risk of developing BPD at the population level. We recruited 329 clinically diagnosed BPD patients and 202 healthy controls to collect information in parental psychopathology, parent-child relationship, and conflict within family. Other than logistic regression models, we applied causal-pie models to identify pathways involved with different family factors for BPD. The risk of BPD was significantly increased with parental depression, neurosis, anxiety, paternal substance use problems, and poor relationship with parents. Having a depressed mother further predicted early onset of BPD. Additionally, a greater risk for BPD was observed with higher numbers of paternal/maternal psychopathologies. Three significant risk profiles were identified for BPD, including paternal substance use problems (73.0%), maternal depression (17.6%), and through poor relationship with parents and conflict within the family (6.3%). Our findings demonstrate that different aspects of family characteristics elicit negative impacts on bipolar illness, which can be utilized to target specific factors to design and employ efficient intervention programs. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  14. Energy-GDP relationship revisited: An example from GCC countries using panel causality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Al-Iriani, Mahmoud A.

    2006-01-01

    This work investigates the causality relationship between gross domestic product (GDP) and energy consumption in the six countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). Recently developed panel cointegration and causality techniques are used to uncover the direction of energy-GDP causality in the GCC. Empirical results indicate a unidirectional causality running from GDP to energy consumption. Evidence shows no support for the hypothesis that energy consumption is the source of GDP growth in the GCC countries. Such results suggest that energy conservation policies may be adopted without much concern about their adverse effects on the growth of GCC economies

  15. CAUSALITY RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN GDP AND ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN GEORGIA, AZERBAIJAN AND ARMENIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huseyin Kalyoncu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This research aims to investigate the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in Georgia, Azerbaijan and Armenia during the period of 1995–2009. The Engle-Granger cointegration and Granger causality tests are used in order to analyse the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth. It is crucial to see the directions of causality between two variables for the policy makers. For Georgia and Azerbaijan it is found that these two variables are not cointegrated. In case of Armenia these two variables are cointegrated. Accordingly, causality analysis is conducted for Armenia. The research outcomes reveal that there is unidirectional causality from per capita GDP to per capita energy consumption for Armenia.

  16. The Effects of Simple Necessity and Sufficiency Relationships on Children's Causal Inferences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siegler, Robert S.

    1976-01-01

    Attempted to determine (1) whether developmental differences existed in children's comprehension of simple necessity and simple sufficiency relationships, and (2) the source of developmental differences in children's causal reasoning. (SB)

  17. A causal relationship between stock indices and exchange rates in india

    OpenAIRE

    Amalendu Bhunia

    2011-01-01

    This paper examines the causal relationship between stock prices and exchange rates, using data from 2 April 2001 to 31 March 2011 about India. Macroeconomic variables are of crucial importance for determining the effects on stock prices and investment decisions. There are many empirical studies to disclose the relationship between macroeconomic variables such as interest rate, inflation, exchange rates, money supply etc. and stock indexes. However, the direction of causality still remains un...

  18. The relationship between crude oil spot and futures prices: Cointegration, linear and nonlinear causality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bekiros, Stelios D.; Diks, Cees G.H.

    2008-01-01

    The present study investigates the linear and nonlinear causal linkages between daily spot and futures prices for maturities of one, two, three and four months of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil. The data cover two periods October 1991-October 1999 and November 1999-October 2007, with the latter being significantly more turbulent. Apart from the conventional linear Granger test we apply a new nonparametric test for nonlinear causality by Diks and Panchenko after controlling for cointegration. In addition to the traditional pairwise analysis, we test for causality while correcting for the effects of the other variables. To check if any of the observed causality is strictly nonlinear in nature, we also examine the nonlinear causal relationships of VECM filtered residuals. Finally, we investigate the hypothesis of nonlinear non-causality after controlling for conditional heteroskedasticity in the data using a GARCH-BEKK model. Whilst the linear causal relationships disappear after VECM cointegration filtering, nonlinear causal linkages in some cases persist even after GARCH filtering in both periods. This indicates that spot and futures returns may exhibit asymmetric GARCH effects and/or statistically significant higher order conditional moments. Moreover, the results imply that if nonlinear effects are accounted for, neither market leads or lags the other consistently, videlicet the pattern of leads and lags changes over time. (author)

  19. The causal relationship between neurocysticercosis infection and the development of epilepsy - a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gripper, Lucy B; Welburn, Susan C

    2017-04-05

    Neurocysticercosis (NCC) is a parasitic infection of the human central nervous system, the most common form of which involves infection of the brain parenchyma with the larval form of the Taenia solium tapeworm. A causal relationship between such an NCC infection and the development of epilepsy in infected individuals is acknowledged, in part supported by high levels of comorbidity in endemic countries worldwide. This study undertook a systematic review and critical analysis of the NCC-epilepsy relationship with the primary objective of quantifying the risk of developing epilepsy following NCC infection. A secondary aim was to analyse the proportions of NCC-associated epilepsy within different populations. Significant emphasis was placed on the importance of neuroimaging (CT or MRI) availability and use of clear guidelines for epilepsy diagnosis, in order to avoid overestimations of prevalence rates of either condition; a limitation identified in several previous studies. A common odds ratio of 2.76 was identified from meta-analysis of case-control studies, indicating that an individual infected with NCC has almost a three times higher risk of developing epilepsy than an uninfected individual. Furthermore, meta-analysis of studies identified a common proportion of 31.54% of epilepsy cases associated with NCC infection which suggests that amongst epileptic populations in at risk countries, approximately one-third may be associated with NCC infection. A significant finding was the lack of good clinical data to enable accurate determination of a causal relationship. Even studies that were included had noticeable limitations, including a general lack of consistency in diagnostics, and lack of accurate epidemiological data. This review highlights a need for consistency in research in this field. In the absence of reliable estimates of its global burden, NCC will remain of low priority in the eyes of funding agencies - a truly neglected disease.

  20. Causal Relationship Between Relative Price Variability and Inflation in Turkey: Evidence from Panel Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nebiye Yamak

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available This study investigates the causal relationship between inflation and relative price variability in Turkey for the period of January 2003-January 2014, by using panel data. In the study, a Granger (1969 non-causality test in heterogeneous panel data models developed by Dumitrescu and Hurlin (2012 is utilized to determine the causal relations between inflation rate relative price variability. The panel data consists of 4123 observations: 133 time observations and 31 cross-section observations. The results of panel causality test indicate that there is a bidirectional causality between inflation rate and relative price variability by not supporting the imperfection information model of Lucas and the menu cost model of Ball and Mankiw.

  1. A Strategy for Identifying Quantitative Trait Genes Using Gene Expression Analysis and Causal Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Akira Ishikawa

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Large numbers of quantitative trait loci (QTL affecting complex diseases and other quantitative traits have been reported in humans and model animals. However, the genetic architecture of these traits remains elusive due to the difficulty in identifying causal quantitative trait genes (QTGs for common QTL with relatively small phenotypic effects. A traditional strategy based on techniques such as positional cloning does not always enable identification of a single candidate gene for a QTL of interest because it is difficult to narrow down a target genomic interval of the QTL to a very small interval harboring only one gene. A combination of gene expression analysis and statistical causal analysis can greatly reduce the number of candidate genes. This integrated approach provides causal evidence that one of the candidate genes is a putative QTG for the QTL. Using this approach, I have recently succeeded in identifying a single putative QTG for resistance to obesity in mice. Here, I outline the integration approach and discuss its usefulness using my studies as an example.

  2. A Strategy for Identifying Quantitative Trait Genes Using Gene Expression Analysis and Causal Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ishikawa, Akira

    2017-11-27

    Large numbers of quantitative trait loci (QTL) affecting complex diseases and other quantitative traits have been reported in humans and model animals. However, the genetic architecture of these traits remains elusive due to the difficulty in identifying causal quantitative trait genes (QTGs) for common QTL with relatively small phenotypic effects. A traditional strategy based on techniques such as positional cloning does not always enable identification of a single candidate gene for a QTL of interest because it is difficult to narrow down a target genomic interval of the QTL to a very small interval harboring only one gene. A combination of gene expression analysis and statistical causal analysis can greatly reduce the number of candidate genes. This integrated approach provides causal evidence that one of the candidate genes is a putative QTG for the QTL. Using this approach, I have recently succeeded in identifying a single putative QTG for resistance to obesity in mice. Here, I outline the integration approach and discuss its usefulness using my studies as an example.

  3. Temporal causal relationship between stock market capitalization, trade openness and real GDP: evidence from Thailand

    OpenAIRE

    Jiranyakul, Komain

    2014-01-01

    This study examines both short-run and long-run causal relationship between stock market capitalization, trade openness and economic growth in Thailand. Quarterly data over the period from the first quarter of 1993 to the fourth quarter of 2013 are used in the analysis. The results from this study show that there exists a unidirectional long-run causality running from stock market capitalization and trade openness to real GDP. In the short run, stock market capitalization does not causes econ...

  4. A Note on Causal Relationship between FDI and Savings in Bangladesh

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad SALAHUDDIN

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to investigate the causal relationship between foreign direct investment and gross domestic savings in Bangladesh over a period of 1985-2007. In doing so, Johansen cointegration technique and error correction methods are employed to examine the long run and short run relationship between foreign direct investment and gross domestic savings. To determine the direction of causality, we used innovation accounting approach. Results suggest that there exist bi-directional causal relationship between foreign direct investment and gross domestic savings but the movement is stronger from domestic savings to foreign direct investment. The result also implies complimentary relationship between them and as such, policy makers in Bangladesh need to focus on the determinants of both FDI and domestic savings in order to accelerate its growth.

  5. Causality Relationship Between Stock Liquidity and Financial Performance: An Example of Borsa İstanbul

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Şükriye Gül REİS

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study is to present the relationship between financial performance and stock liquidity. The relationship has been examined for industry firms which operate in BIST 100 index for the period of 2005Q1-2012Q1. The stock liquidity proxies are Amihud illiquidity ratio and turnover ratio; financial performance proxy is Market Value/Book Value(MV/BV. Dumitrescu and Hurlin causality test is used for determining the relationship. Empirical results show that there is a two-way causality between financial performance and stock liquidity in Borsa Istanbul

  6. Sensitivity Analysis and Bounding of Causal Effects with Alternative Identifying Assumptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jo, Booil; Vinokur, Amiram D.

    2011-01-01

    When identification of causal effects relies on untestable assumptions regarding nonidentified parameters, sensitivity of causal effect estimates is often questioned. For proper interpretation of causal effect estimates in this situation, deriving bounds on causal parameters or exploring the sensitivity of estimates to scientifically plausible…

  7. Causality and correlations between BSE and NYSE indexes: A Janus faced relationship

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neeraj; Panigrahi, Prasanta K.

    2017-09-01

    We study the multi-scale temporal correlations and causality connections between the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) monthly average closing price indexes for a period of 300 months, encompassing the time period of the liberalisation of the Indian economy and its gradual global exposure. In multi-scale analysis; clearly identifiable 1, 2 and 3 year non-stationary periodic modulations in NYSE and BSE have been observed, with NYSE commensurating changes in BSE at 3 years scale. Interestingly, at one year time scale, the two exchanges are phase locked only during the turbulent times, while at the scale of three year, in-phase nature is observed for a much longer time frame. The two year time period, having characteristics of both one and three year variations, acts as the transition regime. The normalised NYSE's stock value is found to Granger cause those of BSE, with a time lag of 9 months. Surprisingly, observed Granger causality of high frequency variations reveals BSE behaviour getting reflected in the NYSE index fluctuations, after a smaller time lag. This Janus faced relationship, shows that smaller stock exchanges may provide a natural setting for simulating market fluctuations of much bigger exchanges. This possibly arises due to the fact that high frequency fluctuations form an universal part of the financial time series, and are expected to exhibit similar characteristics in open market economies.

  8. CAUSAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN FOSSIL FUEL CONSUMPTION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN JAPAN: A MULTIVARIATE APPROACH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hazuki Ishida

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper explores whether Japanese economy can continue to grow without extensive dependence on fossil fuels. The paper conducts time series analysis using a multivariate model of fossil fuels, non-fossil energy, labor, stock and GDP to investigate the relationship between fossil fuel consumption and economic growth in Japan. The results of cointegration tests indicate long-run relationships among the variables. Using a vector error-correction model, the study reveals bidirectional causality between fossil fuels and GDP. The results also show that there is no causal relationship between non-fossil energy and GDP. The results of cointegration analysis, Granger causality tests, and variance decomposition analysis imply that non-fossil energy may not necessarily be able to play the role of fossil fuels. Japan cannot seem to realize both continuous economic growth and the departure from dependence on fossil fuels. Hence, growth-oriented macroeconomic policies should be re-examined.

  9. Sectoral analysis of the causal relationship between electricity consumption and real output in Pakistan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tang, Chor Foon; Shahbaz, Muhammad

    2013-01-01

    This study uses the annual data from 1972 to 2010 to assess the causal relationship between electricity consumption and real output at the aggregate and sectoral levels in Pakistan. This study covers three main economic sectors in Pakistan namely agricultural, manufacturing and services sectors. Our cointegration results reveal that the variables are cointegrated at the aggregate and sectoral levels. At the aggregate level, we find that there is uni-directional Granger causality running from electricity consumption to real output in Pakistan. At the sectoral level, we find that electricity consumption Granger-causes real output in the manufacturing and services sectors. However, there is no causal relationship between electricity consumption and real output in the agricultural sector. The policy implication of these results is that electricity conservation policies in general would deteriorate the process of economic growth as well as the real output in the manufacturing and services sectors in Pakistan. Nevertheless, we suggest the Pakistani government to implement the electricity conservation policies merely to the agricultural sector because such policies may have less or no adverse impact on its real output. - Highlights: • We assess the electricity-growth nexus in Pakistan at the aggregate and sectoral levels. • The variables are cointegrated at both levels. • We find causality from electricity to output at the aggregate level and services. • We find neutral causality in the agricultural sector. • We find bi-directional causality in the manufacturing sector

  10. Causal relationship between nuclear energy consumption and economic growth: A multi-country analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoo, Seung-Hoon; Ku, Se-Ju

    2009-01-01

    This paper attempts to investigate the causal relationship between nuclear energy consumption and economic growth using the data from six countries among 20 countries that have used nuclear energy for more than 20 years until 2005. To this end, time-series techniques including the tests for unit roots, co-integration, and Granger-causality are employed to Argentina, France, Germany, Korea, Pakistan, and Switzerland. The main conclusion is that the causal relationship between nuclear energy consumption and economic growth is not uniform across countries. In the case of Switzerland, there exists bi-directional causality between nuclear energy consumption and economic growth. This means that an increase in nuclear energy consumption directly affects economic growth and that economic growth also stimulates further nuclear energy consumption. The uni-directional causality runs from economic growth to nuclear energy consumption without any feedback effects in France and Pakistan, and from nuclear energy to economic growth in Korea. However, any causality between nuclear energy consumption and economic growth in Argentina and Germany is not detected.

  11. Causal relationship between trade openness, economic growth and energy consumption: A panel data analysis of Asian countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nasreen, Samia; Anwar, Sofia

    2014-01-01

    This paper explores the causal relationship between economic growth, trade openness and energy consumption using data of 15 Asian countries. The study covers the period of 1980–2011. We have applied panel cointegration and causality approaches to examine the long-run and causal relationship between variables. Empirical results confirm the presence of cointegration between variables. The impact of economic growth and trade openness on energy consumption is found to be positive. The panel Granger causality analysis reveals the bidirectional causality between economic growth and energy consumption, trade openness and energy consumption. - Highlights: • This study analyzes causality between energy, growth and trade in the Asian region. • Empirical results supported cointegrating relationship between variables. • Positive impact of growth and trade openness on energy usage is found in the long run. • Bidirectional Granger causality is observed between selected variables in the long run

  12. Using path analysis to examine causal relationships among balanced scorecard performance indicators for general hospitals: the case of a public hospital system in Taiwan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Ming-Chin; Tung, Yu-Chi

    2006-01-01

    Examining whether the causal relationships among the performance indicators of the balanced scorecard (BSC) framework exist in hospitals is the aim of this article. Data were collected from all twenty-one general hospitals in a public hospital system and their supervising agency for the 3-year period, 2000-2002. The results of the path analyses identified significant causal relationships among four perspectives in the BSC model. We also verified the relationships among indicators within each perspective, some of which varied as time changed. We conclude that hospital administrators can use path analysis to help them identify and manage leading indicators when adopting the BSC model. However, they should also validate causal relationships between leading and lagging indicators periodically because the management environment changes constantly.

  13. Identifying X-consumers using causal recipes: "whales" and "jumbo shrimps" casino gamblers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodside, Arch G; Zhang, Mann

    2012-03-01

    X-consumers are the extremely frequent (top 2-3%) users who typically consume 25% of a product category. This article shows how to use fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) to provide "causal recipes" sufficient for profiling X-consumers accurately. The study extends Dik Twedt's "heavy-half" product users for building theory and strategies to nurture or control X-behavior. The study here applies QCA to offer configurations that are sufficient in identifying "whales" and "jumbo shrimps" among X-casino gamblers. The findings support the principle that not all X-consumers are alike. The theory and method are applicable for identifying the degree of consistency and coverage of alternative X-consumers among users of all product-service category and brands.

  14. Institutional and social trust: Is there a causal relationship?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dinesen, Peter Thisted; Sønderskov, Kim Mannemar

    In the literature on social trust, institutional trust is prominent explanations of why people trust the generalized other. However, while institutional trust is a plausible cause of social trust, it is also likely to be consequences of trust or a consequence of deep-rooted personality traits...... affecting both types of trust. Therefore, conventional analyses using cross-sectional data are ill-suited to determine whether institutional trust actually cause social trust. In contrast to previous analyses, this paper utilizes two Danish panel surveys containing measures of the two types of trust...... as regressors), the results provide strong evidence of trust in state institutions exercising an impact on social trust whereas the evidence for a reverse relationship is mixed....

  15. Untangling the causal relationship between tax burden distribution and economic growth in 23 OECD countries: Fresh evidence from linear and non-linear Granger causality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sami Saafi

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the paper is to investigate the linear and nonlinear causality between a set of alternative tax burden ratios and economic growth in 23 OECD countries. To that end, the linear causality approach of Toda– Yamamoto (1995 and the nonparametric causality method of Kyrtsou and Labys (2006 are applied to annual data spanning from 1970 to 2014. Results obtained from the nonlinear causality test tend to reject the neutrality hypothesis for the tax structure–growth relationship in 19 of the 23 OECD countries. In the majority of the countries under investigation, the evidence is in line with the growth hypothesis where causality running from economic growth to tax burden ratios was detected in Australia, Denmark, Finland, Japan, New Zealand, and Norway. The opposite causality running from tax structure to economic growth was found in Germany, Netherlands, Portugal, and Sweden. In contrast, the neutrality hypothesis was supported in Austria, Italy, Luxembourg, and the USA, whereas the feedback hypothesis was supported in Turkey and the UK. Additional robustness checks show that when the signs of variations are taken into account, there is an asymmetric causality running from positive tax burden shocks to positive per capita GDP shocks for Belgium, France, and Turkey. Overall, our findings suggest that policy implications of the tax structure-economic growth relationships should be interpreted with caution, taking into account the test-dependent and country-specific results.

  16. Epidemiological causality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morabia, Alfredo

    2005-01-01

    Epidemiological methods, which combine population thinking and group comparisons, can primarily identify causes of disease in populations. There is therefore a tension between our intuitive notion of a cause, which we want to be deterministic and invariant at the individual level, and the epidemiological notion of causes, which are invariant only at the population level. Epidemiologists have given heretofore a pragmatic solution to this tension. Causal inference in epidemiology consists in checking the logical coherence of a causality statement and determining whether what has been found grossly contradicts what we think we already know: how strong is the association? Is there a dose-response relationship? Does the cause precede the effect? Is the effect biologically plausible? Etc. This approach to causal inference can be traced back to the English philosophers David Hume and John Stuart Mill. On the other hand, the mode of establishing causality, devised by Jakob Henle and Robert Koch, which has been fruitful in bacteriology, requires that in every instance the effect invariably follows the cause (e.g., inoculation of Koch bacillus and tuberculosis). This is incompatible with epidemiological causality which has to deal with probabilistic effects (e.g., smoking and lung cancer), and is therefore invariant only for the population.

  17. CAUSAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ENERGY CONSUMPTION, ECONOMIC GROWTH AND CO2 EMISSIONS: A DYNAMIC PANEL DATA APPROACH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chaido Dritsaki

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Energy plays an important role in economic development worldwide. The increase of energy consumption showed that CO2 emissions in the atmosphere have increased dramatically, and these lead many scientists to push governments of the developing countries to take action for the formulation of environmental policies. Many studies have attempted to look for the direction of causality between energy consumption (EC, economic growth (GDP and CO2 emissions mainly on developing countries. This paper, therefore, applies the panel unit root tests, panel cointegration methods and panel causality test to investigate the relationship between energy consumption (EC, economic growth (GDP and CO2 emissions for three countries of Southern Europe (Greece, Spain, and Portugal covering the annual period 1960-2009. The FMOLS and DOLS are then used to estimate the long run relationship between the variables. The findings of this study reveal that there is a short-run bilateral causal link between the examined variables. However, in the long run, there is a unidirectional causality running from CO2 emissions to energy consumption (EC, and economic growth (GDP and a bilateral causality between energy consumption and economic growth. This indicates that energy is a force for economic growth both in short and long run as it is driven from economic growth. Moreover, to face the heterogeneity on the three countries of Southern Europe we use the FMOLS and DOLS estimation methods.

  18. Bayesian methods for meta-analysis of causal relationships estimated using genetic instrumental variables

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Burgess, Stephen; Thompson, Simon G; Thompson, Grahame

    2010-01-01

    Genetic markers can be used as instrumental variables, in an analogous way to randomization in a clinical trial, to estimate the causal relationship between a phenotype and an outcome variable. Our purpose is to extend the existing methods for such Mendelian randomization studies to the context o...

  19. The Causal Relationship of Organizational Performance of Thailand Private Higher Education Institutions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahasinpaisan, Tippaporn

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to propose causal model of the relationship among transformational leadership, organizational culture, knowledge management, and organizational performance. A sample of 389 was randomly drawn from instructors of private higher education institutions under the Office of the Higher Education Commission. Data were…

  20. Disentangling the causal relationships between work-home interference and employee health

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hooff, M.L.M. van; Geurts, S.A.E.; Taris, T.W.; Kompier, M.A.J.; Dikkers, J.S.E.; Houtman, I.L.D.; Heuvel, F.M.M. van den

    2005-01-01

    Objectives: The present study was designed to investigate the causal relationships between (time- and strain-based) work-home interference and employee health. The effort-recovery theory provided the theoretical basis for this study. Methods: Two-phase longitudinal data (with a 1-ye ar time lag)

  1. Periodontitis and Insulin Resistance: Casual or Causal Relationship?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abhijit N. Gurav

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Insulin resistance (IR is now considered as a chronic and low level inflammatory condition. It is closely related to altered glucose tolerance, hypertriglyceridemia, abdominal obesity, and coronary heart disease. IR is accompanied by the increase in the levels of inflammatory cytokines like interleukin-1 and 6, tumor necrosis factor-α. These inflammatory cytokines also play a crucial part in pathogenesis and progression of insulin resistance. Periodontitis is the commonest of oral diseases, affecting tooth investing tissues. Pro-inflammatory cytokines are released in the disease process of periodontitis. Periodontitis can be attributed with exacerbation of IR. Data in the literature supports a "two way relationship" between diabetes and periodontitis. Periodontitis is asymptomatic in the initial stages of disease process and it often escapes diagnosis. This review presents the blurred nexus between periodontitis and IR, underlining the pathophysiology of the insidious link. The knowledge of the association between periodontitis and IR can be valuable in planning effectual treatment modalities for subjects with altered glucose homeostasis and diabetics. Presently, the studies supporting this association are miniscule. Further studies are mandatory to substantiate the role of periodontitis in the deterioration of IR.

  2. Predicting Causal Relationships from Biological Data: Applying Automated Casual Discovery on Mass Cytometry Data of Human Immune Cells

    KAUST Repository

    Triantafillou, Sofia; Lagani, Vincenzo; Heinze-Deml, Christina; Schmidt, Angelika; Tegner, Jesper; Tsamardinos, Ioannis

    2017-01-01

    Learning the causal relationships that define a molecular system allows us to predict how the system will respond to different interventions. Distinguishing causality from mere association typically requires randomized experiments. Methods for automated causal discovery from limited experiments exist, but have so far rarely been tested in systems biology applications. In this work, we apply state-of-the art causal discovery methods on a large collection of public mass cytometry data sets, measuring intra-cellular signaling proteins of the human immune system and their response to several perturbations. We show how different experimental conditions can be used to facilitate causal discovery, and apply two fundamental methods that produce context-specific causal predictions. Causal predictions were reproducible across independent data sets from two different studies, but often disagree with the KEGG pathway databases. Within this context, we discuss the caveats we need to overcome for automated causal discovery to become a part of the routine data analysis in systems biology.

  3. Predicting Causal Relationships from Biological Data: Applying Automated Casual Discovery on Mass Cytometry Data of Human Immune Cells

    KAUST Repository

    Triantafillou, Sofia

    2017-03-31

    Learning the causal relationships that define a molecular system allows us to predict how the system will respond to different interventions. Distinguishing causality from mere association typically requires randomized experiments. Methods for automated causal discovery from limited experiments exist, but have so far rarely been tested in systems biology applications. In this work, we apply state-of-the art causal discovery methods on a large collection of public mass cytometry data sets, measuring intra-cellular signaling proteins of the human immune system and their response to several perturbations. We show how different experimental conditions can be used to facilitate causal discovery, and apply two fundamental methods that produce context-specific causal predictions. Causal predictions were reproducible across independent data sets from two different studies, but often disagree with the KEGG pathway databases. Within this context, we discuss the caveats we need to overcome for automated causal discovery to become a part of the routine data analysis in systems biology.

  4. Causality Relationship Between Import, Export and Growth Rate in Developing Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Serhat YUKSEL

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we tried to determine the relationship between imports, exports and growth rate in developing countries. Within this scope, 6 developing countries (Argentina, Brazil, China, Malaysia, Mexico and Turkey were analyzed in this study. In order to achieve this purpose, annual data for the periods between 1961 and 2014 was tested by using Engle Granger co-integration analysis, Vector Error Correction Model and Toda Yamamoto causality analysis. According to the result of the analysis, it was determined that there is not any relationship among three variables in Brazil and Mexico. On the other hand, we defined that increase in export causes higher growth rate in Argentina. Moreover, it was concluded that there is a causal relationship from import to export in China and Turkey. Furthermore, it was determined that export causes higher import in Malaysia. Therefore, it can be concluded that the relationship between import, export and growth rate is not same for all developing countries..

  5. Corruption, Political Instability and Economic Development in the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS): Is There a Causal Relationship?

    OpenAIRE

    Nurudeen Abu; Mohd Zaini Abd Karim; Mukhriz Izraf Azman Aziz

    2015-01-01

    Despite the abundant research on economic development, corruption and political instability, little research has attempted to examine whether there is a causal relationship among them. This paper examines the causal relationship among corruption, political instability and economic development in the ECOWAS using the Granger causality test within a multivariate cointegration and error-correction framework for the 1996 - 2012 period. The findings indicate that political instability Granger-caus...

  6. Identifying interactions in the time and frequency domains in local and global networks - A Granger Causality Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zou, Cunlu; Ladroue, Christophe; Guo, Shuixia; Feng, Jianfeng

    2010-06-21

    Reverse-engineering approaches such as Bayesian network inference, ordinary differential equations (ODEs) and information theory are widely applied to deriving causal relationships among different elements such as genes, proteins, metabolites, neurons, brain areas and so on, based upon multi-dimensional spatial and temporal data. There are several well-established reverse-engineering approaches to explore causal relationships in a dynamic network, such as ordinary differential equations (ODE), Bayesian networks, information theory and Granger Causality. Here we focused on Granger causality both in the time and frequency domain and in local and global networks, and applied our approach to experimental data (genes and proteins). For a small gene network, Granger causality outperformed all the other three approaches mentioned above. A global protein network of 812 proteins was reconstructed, using a novel approach. The obtained results fitted well with known experimental findings and predicted many experimentally testable results. In addition to interactions in the time domain, interactions in the frequency domain were also recovered. The results on the proteomic data and gene data confirm that Granger causality is a simple and accurate approach to recover the network structure. Our approach is general and can be easily applied to other types of temporal data.

  7. Identifying interactions in the time and frequency domains in local and global networks - A Granger Causality Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guo Shuixia

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Reverse-engineering approaches such as Bayesian network inference, ordinary differential equations (ODEs and information theory are widely applied to deriving causal relationships among different elements such as genes, proteins, metabolites, neurons, brain areas and so on, based upon multi-dimensional spatial and temporal data. There are several well-established reverse-engineering approaches to explore causal relationships in a dynamic network, such as ordinary differential equations (ODE, Bayesian networks, information theory and Granger Causality. Results Here we focused on Granger causality both in the time and frequency domain and in local and global networks, and applied our approach to experimental data (genes and proteins. For a small gene network, Granger causality outperformed all the other three approaches mentioned above. A global protein network of 812 proteins was reconstructed, using a novel approach. The obtained results fitted well with known experimental findings and predicted many experimentally testable results. In addition to interactions in the time domain, interactions in the frequency domain were also recovered. Conclusions The results on the proteomic data and gene data confirm that Granger causality is a simple and accurate approach to recover the network structure. Our approach is general and can be easily applied to other types of temporal data.

  8. The causal relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in the ASEAN countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoo, S.-H.

    2006-01-01

    This paper investigates the causal relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth among the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) 4 members, namely Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand, using modern time-series techniques for the period 1971-2002. The results indicate that there is a bi-directional causality between electricity consumption and economic growth in Malaysia and Singapore. This means that an increase in electricity consumption directly affects economic growth and that economic growth also stimulates further electricity consumption in the two countries. However, uni-directional causality runs from economic growth to electricity consumption in Indonesia and Thailand without any feedback effect. Thus, electricity conservation policies can be initiated without deteriorating economic side effects in the two countries

  9. Academic procrastination: the relationship between causal attribution styles and behavioral postponement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badri Gargari, Rahim; Sabouri, Hossein; Norzad, Fatemeh

    2011-01-01

    This research was conducted to study the relationship between attribution and academic procrastination in University Students. The subjects were 203 undergraduate students, 55 males and 148 females, selected from English and French language and literature students of Tabriz University. Data were gathered through Procrastination Assessment Scale-student (PASS) and Causal Dimension Scale (CDA) and were analyzed by multiple regression analysis (stepwise). The results showed that there was a meaningful and negative relation between the locus of control and controllability in success context and academic procrastination. Besides, a meaningful and positive relation was observed between the locus of control and stability in failure context and procrastination. It was also found that 17% of the variance of procrastination was accounted by linear combination of attributions. We believe that causal attribution is a key in understanding procrastination in academic settings and is used by those who have the knowledge of Causal Attribution styles to organize their learning.

  10. The causal relationship between energy resources and economic growth in Brazil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pao, Hsiao-Tien; Fu, Hsin-Chia

    2013-01-01

    This study investigates the causal relationship between clean and non-clean energy consumption and economic growth in Brazil over the period of 1980–2009. Clean energy consumption at aggregated level of total renewable energy consumption and disaggregated levels of hydroelectric, new renewables, and nuclear energy consumption are tested within a production function framework. A cointegration test reveals a long-term equilibrium relationship between real output, capital, labor, and renewable and non-renewable energy consumption at aggregated level, and a long-term equilibrium relationship between real output, capital, labor, and hydroelectric/new renewables/nuclear and fossil fuel energy consumption at disaggregated level. The capital, labor, and new renewables elasticities of real output are positive and statistically significant, other energy consumption item's elasticities are insignificant. The results from error correction model reveal the interdependencies between new renewables, nuclear, fossil fuel, and total non-renewable energy consumption and economic growth, the unidirectional causality from hydroelectric/total renewable consumption to economic growth, the substitutability between new renewables and fossil fuel consumption, and the substitutability between new renewables and nuclear energy consumption. Additionally, nuclear and new renewables energy consumption responds to bring the system back to equilibrium. Overall, aggregated analysis may obscure the relationship between different types of clean energy consumption and economic growth. - Highlights: • We model three kinds of clean energy and non-clean energy consumption and real GDP. • There is fossil fuel consumption–economic growth bidirectional causality. • There is new renewables consumption–economic growth bidirectional causality. • There is nuclear energy consumption–economic growth bidirectional causality. • Substitutability exists for new renewables–fossil fuel or new

  11. Identifying the Average Causal Mediation Effects with Multiple Mediators in the Presence of Treatment Non-Compliance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Soojin

    2015-01-01

    Identifying the causal mechanisms is becoming more essential in social and medical sciences. In the presence of treatment non-compliance, the Intent-To-Treated effect (hereafter, ITT effect) is identified as long as the treatment is randomized (Angrist et al., 1996). However, the mediated portion of effect is not identified without additional…

  12. [Electroconvulsive therapy and level of evidence: From causality to dose-effect relationship].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Micoulaud-Franchi, J-A; Quilès, C; Cermolacce, M; Belzeaux, R; Adida, M; Fakra, E; Azorin, J-M

    2016-12-01

    The first objective of this article is to summarize the history of electroconvulsive therapy (ECT) in psychiatry in order to highlight the transition from clinical level of evidence based on phenomenological descriptions to controlled trial establishing causal relationship. The second objective is to apply the criteria of causation for ECT, to focus on the dose-effect relationship criteria, and thus to analyze the conditions of application of these criteria for ECT. A literature review exploring the use of electricity, ECT and electroencephalography (EEG) in psychiatry was conducted. The publications were identified from the Pubmed and GoogleScholar electronic databases. The scientific literature search of international articles was performed in July 2016. In 1784, a Royal commission established in France by King Louis XVI tested Mesmer's claims concerning animal magnetism. By doing that, the commission, including such prominent scientists as the chemist Anton Lavoisier and the scientist and researcher on electricity and therapeutics Benjamin Franklin, played a central role in establishing the criteria needed to assess the level of evidence of electrical therapeutics in psychiatry. Surprisingly, it is possible to identify the classical Bradford Hill criteria of causation in the report of the commission, except the dose-effect relationship criteria. Since then, it has been conducted blinded randomized controlled trials that confirmed the effectiveness of ECT against ECT placebos for the treatment of psychiatric disorders. At present, the dose-effect relationship criteria can be analyzed through an EEG quality assessment of ECT-induced seizures. EEG quality assessment includes several indices: TSLOW (time to onset of seizure activity ≤5Hz, seconds), peak mid-ictal amplitude (mm), regularity (intensity or morphology of the seizure (0-6)), stereotypy (global seizure patterning, 0-3) and post-ictal suppression (0-3). A manual rating sheet is needed to score theses

  13. ICSNPathway: identify candidate causal SNPs and pathways from genome-wide association study by one analytical framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Kunlin; Chang, Suhua; Cui, Sijia; Guo, Liyuan; Zhang, Liuyan; Wang, Jing

    2011-07-01

    Genome-wide association study (GWAS) is widely utilized to identify genes involved in human complex disease or some other trait. One key challenge for GWAS data interpretation is to identify causal SNPs and provide profound evidence on how they affect the trait. Currently, researches are focusing on identification of candidate causal variants from the most significant SNPs of GWAS, while there is lack of support on biological mechanisms as represented by pathways. Although pathway-based analysis (PBA) has been designed to identify disease-related pathways by analyzing the full list of SNPs from GWAS, it does not emphasize on interpreting causal SNPs. To our knowledge, so far there is no web server available to solve the challenge for GWAS data interpretation within one analytical framework. ICSNPathway is developed to identify candidate causal SNPs and their corresponding candidate causal pathways from GWAS by integrating linkage disequilibrium (LD) analysis, functional SNP annotation and PBA. ICSNPathway provides a feasible solution to bridge the gap between GWAS and disease mechanism study by generating hypothesis of SNP → gene → pathway(s). The ICSNPathway server is freely available at http://icsnpathway.psych.ac.cn/.

  14. Investigation of Causal Relationship between Stock Prices and Trading Volume using Toda and Yamamoto Procedure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sushil BAJAJ

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available The present study probes the relationship between the stock prices and trading volume. For achieving this purpose, daily data of adjusted closing stock prices, trading volume of 39 individual securities and S&P CNX Nifty from January 1, 1998 to May 31, 2013 have been used. In this study, instead of applying ordinary Granger causality test to investigate the relationship between stock prices and trading volume, Toda and Yamamoto (1995 procedure has been applied for analyzing the data. Lag length chosen by AIC and FPE criterion has been insured by running Lagrange Multiplier (LM test and causality determined by Toda and Yamamoto test has also been confirmed by using VAR methodology. Although, Toda and Yamamoto and VAR test produced little dissimilar results, nevertheless, the empirical analysis provides sufficient grounds to declare the presence of interaction between stock prices and trading volume.

  15. Causal relationships among academic delay of gratification, motivation, and self-regulated learning in elementary school children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Lili; Maruno, Shun'ichi

    2010-10-01

    Academic delay of gratification refers to the postponement of immediate rewards by students and the pursuit of more important, temporally remote academic goals. A path model was designed to identify the causal relationships among academic delay of gratification and motivation, self-regulated learning strategies (as specified in the Motivated Strategies for Learning Questionnaire), and grades among 386 Chinese elementary school children. Academic delay of gratification was found to be positively related to motivation and metacognition. Cognitive strategy, resource management, and grades mediated these two factors and were indirectly related to academic delay of gratification.

  16. The causal relationship between neurocysticercosis infection and the development of epilepsy - a systematic review

    OpenAIRE

    Gripper, Lucy B; Welburn, Susan C

    2017-01-01

    Background Neurocysticercosis (NCC) is a parasitic infection of the human central nervous system, the most common form of which involves infection of the brain parenchyma with the larval form of the Taenia solium tapeworm. A causal relationship between such an NCC infection and the development of epilepsy in infected individuals is acknowledged, in part supported by high levels of comorbidity in endemic countries worldwide. Methods This study undertook a systematic review and critical analysi...

  17. Spatio-Temporal Story Mapping Animation Based On Structured Causal Relationships Of Historical Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Inoue, Y.; Tsuruoka, K.; Arikawa, M.

    2014-04-01

    In this paper, we proposed a user interface that displays visual animations on geographic maps and timelines for depicting historical stories by representing causal relationships among events for time series. We have been developing an experimental software system for the spatial-temporal visualization of historical stories for tablet computers. Our proposed system makes people effectively learn historical stories using visual animations based on hierarchical structures of different scale timelines and maps.

  18. The causality relationship between energy consumption and GDP in G-11 countries revisited

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, C.-C.

    2006-01-01

    This paper explores whether energy conservation policies can be implemented in countries with the same level of development. That is, is restraining energy consumption without compromising economic growth feasible in all industrialized countries? A new Granger non-causality testing procedure developed by Toda and Yamamoto [1995, Journal of Econometrics 66, 225-250] is applied to re-investigate the relationship, if any, between energy consumption and income in 11 major industrialized countries. The results clearly do not support the view that energy consumption and income are neutral with respect to each other, except in the case of the United Kingdom, Germany and Sweden where a neutral relationship is found. Bi-directional causality in the United States and uni-directional running from energy consumption to GDP in Canada, Belgium, the Netherlands and Switzerland are found. This indicates that energy conservation may hinder economic growth in the latter five countries. Further, the causality relationship appears to be uni-directional but reversed for France, Italy and Japan which implies that, in these three countries, energy conservation may be viable without being detrimental to economic growth

  19. Particulate air pollution and increased mortality: Biological plausibility for causal relationship

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Henderson, R.F.

    1995-01-01

    Recently, a number of epidemiological studies have concluded that ambient particulate exposure is associated with increased mortality and morbidity at PM concentrations well below those previously thought to affect human health. These studies have been conducted in several different geographical locations and have involved a range of populations. While the consistency of the findings and the presence of an apparent concentration response relationship provide a strong argument for causality, epidemiological studies can only conclude this based upon inference from statistical associations. The biological plausibility of a causal relationship between low concentrations of PM and daily mortality and morbidity rates is neither intuitively obvious nor expected based on past experimental studies on the toxicity of inhaled particles. Chronic toxicity from inhaled, poorly soluble particles has been observed based on the slow accumulation of large lung burdens of particles, not on small daily fluctuations in PM levels. Acute toxicity from inhaled particles is associated mainly with acidic particles and is observed at much higher concentrations than those observed in the epidemiology studies reporting an association between PM concentrations and morbidity/mortality. To approach the difficult problem of determining if the association between PM concentrations and daily morbidity and mortality is biologically plausible and causal, one must consider (1) the chemical and physical characteristics of the particles in the inhaled atmospheres, (2) the characteristics of the morbidity/mortality observed and the people who are affected, and (3) potential mechanisms that might link the two

  20. Causal Relationship Between Islamic Bonds, Oil Price and Precious Metals: Evidence From Asia Pacific

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Metadjer Widad

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Sukuk or Islamic bonds as new “Halal” securities had wildly expanded in Muslim and non-Muslim capital markets. So, this study aims to investigate the causal relationship between Islamic bonds (sukuk, oil and precious metals “silver and gold” prices in Asia pacific. This study used VAR model relying on daily data. The findings of Granger causality test and impulse-responses analysis results provide substantial evidence in favor of the relation between sukuk and the commodity market variables (oil, gold, and silver meanwhile and unlike many empirical studies, don’t we have found that oil doesn’t cause changes in precious metals prices. Therefore, the idea that Islamic financial markets provide diversification benefits and they are safe havens during oil crisis cannot be supported empirically.DOI: 10.15408/aiq.v10i2.7171

  1. Detangling complex relationships in forensic data: principles and use of causal networks and their application to clinical forensic science.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lefèvre, Thomas; Lepresle, Aude; Chariot, Patrick

    2015-09-01

    The search for complex, nonlinear relationships and causality in data is hindered by the availability of techniques in many domains, including forensic science. Linear multivariable techniques are useful but present some shortcomings. In the past decade, Bayesian approaches have been introduced in forensic science. To date, authors have mainly focused on providing an alternative to classical techniques for quantifying effects and dealing with uncertainty. Causal networks, including Bayesian networks, can help detangle complex relationships in data. A Bayesian network estimates the joint probability distribution of data and graphically displays dependencies between variables and the circulation of information between these variables. In this study, we illustrate the interest in utilizing Bayesian networks for dealing with complex data through an application in clinical forensic science. Evaluating the functional impairment of assault survivors is a complex task for which few determinants are known. As routinely estimated in France, the duration of this impairment can be quantified by days of 'Total Incapacity to Work' ('Incapacité totale de travail,' ITT). In this study, we used a Bayesian network approach to identify the injury type, victim category and time to evaluation as the main determinants of the 'Total Incapacity to Work' (TIW). We computed the conditional probabilities associated with the TIW node and its parents. We compared this approach with a multivariable analysis, and the results of both techniques were converging. Thus, Bayesian networks should be considered a reliable means to detangle complex relationships in data.

  2. The causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in Lebanon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dagher, Leila; Yacoubian, Talar

    2012-01-01

    This paper investigates the dynamic causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in Lebanon over the period 1980–2009. Within a bivariate framework, imposed on us due to data limitations, and in an effort to increase the robustness of our results, we employ a variety of causality tests, namely, Hsiao, Toda-Yamamoto, and vector error correction based Granger causality tests. We find strong evidence of a bidirectional relationship both in the short-run and in the long-run, indicating that energy is a limiting factor to economic growth in Lebanon. From a policy perspective, the confirmation of the feedback hypothesis warns against the use of policy instruments geared towards restricting energy consumption, as these may lead to adverse effects on economic growth. Consequently, there is a pressing need to revise the current national energy policy that calls for a 5% energy conservation target. Also, to shield the country from external supply shocks, given its substantial dependence on energy imports, policymakers should emphasize the development of domestic energy resources. Further, the most pertinent implication is that relaxing the present electric capacity shortages should be made a national priority, in view of its potential positive effect on the economy. - Highlights: ► We investigate the energy-GDP nexus for Lebanon. ► Evidence of a bidirectional relationship both in the short- and the long-run is found. ► Reducing outages by expanding electric capacity should thus be prioritized. ► The energy plan calling for a 5% reduction in energy consumption needs to be revised. ► Development of domestic energy sources will help in mitigating energy supply shocks.

  3. Temporal expression profiling identifies pathways mediating effect of causal variant on phenotype.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saumya Gupta

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Even with identification of multiple causal genetic variants for common human diseases, understanding the molecular processes mediating the causal variants' effect on the disease remains a challenge. This understanding is crucial for the development of therapeutic strategies to prevent and treat disease. While static profiling of gene expression is primarily used to get insights into the biological bases of diseases, it makes differentiating the causative from the correlative effects difficult, as the dynamics of the underlying biological processes are not monitored. Using yeast as a model, we studied genome-wide gene expression dynamics in the presence of a causal variant as the sole genetic determinant, and performed allele-specific functional validation to delineate the causal effects of the genetic variant on the phenotype. Here, we characterized the precise genetic effects of a functional MKT1 allelic variant in sporulation efficiency variation. A mathematical model describing meiotic landmark events and conditional activation of MKT1 expression during sporulation specified an early meiotic role of this variant. By analyzing the early meiotic genome-wide transcriptional response, we demonstrate an MKT1-dependent role of novel modulators, namely, RTG1/3, regulators of mitochondrial retrograde signaling, and DAL82, regulator of nitrogen starvation, in additively effecting sporulation efficiency. In the presence of functional MKT1 allele, better respiration during early sporulation was observed, which was dependent on the mitochondrial retrograde regulator, RTG3. Furthermore, our approach showed that MKT1 contributes to sporulation independent of Puf3, an RNA-binding protein that steady-state transcription profiling studies have suggested to mediate MKT1-pleiotropic effects during mitotic growth. These results uncover interesting regulatory links between meiosis and mitochondrial retrograde signaling. In this study, we highlight the advantage

  4. Infertile individuals' marital relationship status, happiness, and mental health: a causal model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmadi Forooshany, Seyed Habiballah; Yazdkhasti, Fariba; Safari Hajataghaie, Saiede; Nasr Esfahani, Mohammad Hossein

    2014-10-01

    This study examined the causal model of relation between marital relation- ship status, happiness, and mental health in infertile individuals. In this descriptive study, 155 subjects (men: 52 and women: 78), who had been visited in one of the infertility Centers, voluntarily participated in a self-evaluation. Golombok Rust Inventory of Marital Status, Oxford Happiness Ques- tionnaire, and General Health Questionnaire were used as instruments of the study. Data was analyzed by SPSS17 and Amos 5 software using descriptive statistics, independent sample t test, and path analysis. Disregarding the gender factor, marital relationship status was directly related to happiness (phappiness was directly related to mental health, (phappiness and mental health was significant (phappiness had a mediator role in relation between marital relationship status and mental health in infertile individu- als disregarding the gender factor. Also, considering the gender factor, only in infertile women, marital relationship status can directly and indirectly affect happiness and mental health.

  5. Causality of relationship between paternal radiation exposure and leukaemia incidence in the children of Sellafield workers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wheldon, T.E.; Mairs, R.J.; Barrett, A.

    1992-01-01

    In this letter the author comments on K.E. Baverstock's case (1991) against the likelihood of a causal relationship between reported leukemia incidence and paternal radiation dose in the children of Sellafield workers, and emphasizes the desirability of devising experimental tests of the germ-cell line damage hypothesis as well as the evaluation of its plausibility. Particular reference is made to the role played by dose-rates and by the two-hit model for childhood acute leukemia. (Letter to the Editor)

  6. Causal Relationship Analysis of the Patient Safety Culture Based on Safety Attitudes Questionnaire in Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeng, Pei-Shan; Huang, Chih-Hsuan

    2018-01-01

    This study uses the decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory method to identify critical dimensions of the safety attitudes questionnaire in Taiwan in order to improve the patient safety culture from experts' viewpoints. Teamwork climate, stress recognition, and perceptions of management are three causal dimensions, while safety climate, job satisfaction, and working conditions are receiving dimensions. In practice, improvements on effect-based dimensions might receive little effects when a great amount of efforts have been invested. In contrast, improving a causal dimension not only improves itself but also results in better performance of other dimension(s) directly affected by this particular dimension. Teamwork climate and perceptions of management are found to be the most critical dimensions because they are both causal dimensions and have significant influences on four dimensions apiece. It is worth to note that job satisfaction is the only dimension affected by the other dimensions. In order to effectively enhance the patient safety culture for healthcare organizations, teamwork climate, and perceptions of management should be closely monitored. PMID:29686825

  7. Causal Relationship Analysis of the Patient Safety Culture Based on Safety Attitudes Questionnaire in Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yii-Ching Lee

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available This study uses the decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory method to identify critical dimensions of the safety attitudes questionnaire in Taiwan in order to improve the patient safety culture from experts’ viewpoints. Teamwork climate, stress recognition, and perceptions of management are three causal dimensions, while safety climate, job satisfaction, and working conditions are receiving dimensions. In practice, improvements on effect-based dimensions might receive little effects when a great amount of efforts have been invested. In contrast, improving a causal dimension not only improves itself but also results in better performance of other dimension(s directly affected by this particular dimension. Teamwork climate and perceptions of management are found to be the most critical dimensions because they are both causal dimensions and have significant influences on four dimensions apiece. It is worth to note that job satisfaction is the only dimension affected by the other dimensions. In order to effectively enhance the patient safety culture for healthcare organizations, teamwork climate, and perceptions of management should be closely monitored.

  8. Historic evidence to support a causal relationship between spirochetal infections and Alzheimer’s disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Judith eMiklossy

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Following previous observations a statistically significant association between various types of spirochetes and Alzheimer’s disease (AD fulfilled Hill’s criteria in favor of a causal relationship. If spirochetal infections can indeed cause AD, the pathological and biological hallmarks of AD should also occur in syphilitic dementia. To answer this question, observations and illustrations on the detection of spirochetes in the atrophic form of general paresis, which is known to be associated with slowly progressive dementia, were reviewed and compared with the characteristic pathology of AD. Historic observations and illustrations published in the first half of the 20th Century indeed confirm that the pathological hallmarks, which define AD, are also present in syphilitic dementia. Cortical spirochetal colonies are made up by innumerable tightly spiraled Treponema pallidum spirochetes, which are morphologically indistinguishable from senile plaques, using conventional light microscopy. Local brain amyloidosis also occurs in general paresis and, as in AD, corresponds to amyloid beta. These historic observations enable us to conclude that chronic spirochetal infections can cause dementia and reproduce the defining hallmarks of AD. They represent further evidence in support a causal relationship between various spirochetal infections and AD. They also indicate that local invasion of the brain by these helically shaped bacteria reproduce the filamentous pathology characteristic of AD. Chronic infection by spirochetes, and co-infection with other bacteria and viruses should be included in our current view on the etiology of AD. Prompt action is needed as AD might be prevented.

  9. [Causal relationship between assertiveness and adjustment in children: A short-term longitudinal study].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eguchi, Megumi; Hamaguchi, Yoshikazu

    2015-08-01

    This study examined the causal relationships between assertiveness and both internal and external adjustment in children. Elementary school children in grades four through six (N = 284) participated in the study, which used a short-term longitudinal design. The children completed questionnaires twice during a 6-months period. They responded to assertiveness questionnaires that included two components: "self-expression" and "consideration of others". They also completed a self-esteem scale as an index of internal adjustment, and the Class Life Satisfaction scale as an index of external adjustment. There was a positive causative relationship between "self-expression" and internal adjustment and between "consideration for others" and external adjustment. In addition, the effects on adjustment varied according to the type of assertiveness. Cluster analysis and MANOVA indicated that the group with high "self-expression" and "consideration for others" had high internal and external adjustment, while the children with poor assertiveness showed the lowest degree of adaptivity.

  10. Integrative analysis of functional genomic annotations and sequencing data to identify rare causal variants via hierarchical modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marinela eCapanu

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Identifying the small number of rare causal variants contributing to disease has beena major focus of investigation in recent years, but represents a formidable statisticalchallenge due to the rare frequencies with which these variants are observed. In thiscommentary we draw attention to a formal statistical framework, namely hierarchicalmodeling, to combine functional genomic annotations with sequencing data with theobjective of enhancing our ability to identify rare causal variants. Using simulations weshow that in all configurations studied, the hierarchical modeling approach has superiordiscriminatory ability compared to a recently proposed aggregate measure of deleteriousness,the Combined Annotation-Dependent Depletion (CADD score, supportingour premise that aggregate functional genomic measures can more accurately identifycausal variants when used in conjunction with sequencing data through a hierarchicalmodeling approach

  11. Causal-implicative relationships in the Serbian hypotaxis (Complex of generative complex sentences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vojvodić Dojčil P.

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper analyzes the causal-implicative relationships in the segmented complex sentences with a “closed” (asymmetric, mandatory bi-situational generative (conditional semantic structure on the corpus of the Serbian language. The generative (conditional semantic structure consists of meaningfully interconnected antecedents and consequents that are based on the principle of subordination. These sentences are characterized with a general causal link due to the specific implicative relationship between the segments that can be realized within dependent clauses with diverse categorically-differential semantics (i.e. causal, consecutive, final, conditional and concessive. The author reaches a conclusion that the given implicative relationships (P ⇒ Q, P ⇐ Q/Q ⇒ P, P ⇔Q, P ⇒ Q´ Δ P´ ⇒ Q represent, in fact, semantic invariants of generative complex sentences. It is pointed out that the structure, formation and functioning of these relationships (sentences are always determined by the interconnectedness of syntax and lexicon. They are based on a general causal adverbial meaning of the conjunctions in a subordinate clause, which are also used to determine the adverbial semantics of a sentence as a whole. The article discusses in particular the aspectual-temporal correlations that are realized in complex sentences with a generative structure. It has been noted very often in the literature that there is no differentiation made among all of the types of the hypothetical conditionality - real, eventual, potential and unreal. The paper analyzes taxis of simultaneity and succession (anteriority/posteriority of the main and subordinate clause predicates in conditional sentences as a special type of the relative-temporal relationships within the same temporal plan. In order to interpret these correlations, the Serbian data was compared to the data in Russian and Polish. It is noted that the Northern Slavic languages (in this case Russian and

  12. Understanding causal associations between self-rated health and personal relationships in older adults: A review of evidence from longitudinal studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Craigs, Cheryl L; Twiddy, Maureen; Parker, Stuart G; West, Robert M

    2014-01-01

    As we age we experience many life changes in our health, personal relationships, work, or home life which can impact on other aspects of our life. There is compelling evidence that how we feel about our health influences, or is influenced by, the personal relationships we experience with friends and relatives. Currently the direction this association takes is unclear. To assess the level of published evidence available on causal links between self-rated health and personal relationships in older adults. MEDLINE, CINAHL, and PsycINFO searches from inception to June 2012 and hand searches of publication lists, reference lists and citations were used to identify primary studies utilizing longitudinal data to investigate self-rated health and personal relationships in older adults. Thirty-one articles were identified. Only three articles employed methods suitable to explore causal associations between changes in self-rated health and changes in personal relationships. Two of these articles suggested that widowhood leads to a reduction in self-rated health in the short term, while the remaining article suggested a causal relationship between self-rated health and negative emotional support from family or friends, but this was complex and mediated by self-esteem and sense of control. While there is an abundance of longitudinal aging cohorts available which can be used to investigate self-rated health and personal relationships over time the potential for these databases to be used to investigate causal associations is currently not being recognized. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Infertile Individuals’ Marital Relationship Status, Happiness, and Mental Health: A Causal Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seyed Habiballah Ahmadi Forooshany

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Background: This study examined the causal model of relation between marital relationship status, happiness, and mental health in infertile individuals. Materials and Methods: In this descriptive study, 155 subjects (men: 52 and women: 78, who had been visited in one of the infertility Centers, voluntarily participated in a self-evaluation. Golombok Rust Inventory of Marital Status, Oxford Happiness Questionnaire, and General Health Questionnaire were used as instruments of the study. Data was analyzed by SPSS17 and Amos 5 software using descriptive statistics, independent sample t test, and path analysis. Results: Disregarding the gender factor, marital relationship status was directly related to happiness (p<0.05 and happiness was directly related to mental health, (p<0.05. Also, indirect relation between marital relationship status and mental health was significant (p<0.05. These results were confirmed in women participants but in men participants only the direct relation between happiness and mental health was significant (p<0.05. Conclusion: Based on goodness of model fit in fitness indexes, happiness had a mediator role in relation between marital relationship status and mental health in infertile individuals disregarding the gender factor. Also, considering the gender factor, only in infertile women, marital relationship status can directly and indirectly affect happiness and mental health.

  14. Identifying Causal Gateways and Mediators in Complex Spatio-Temporal Systems

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Runge, J.; Petoukhov, V.; Donges, J.F.; Hlinka, Jaroslav; Jajcay, Nikola; Vejmelka, Martin; Hartman, David; Marwan, N.; Paluš, Milan; Kurths, J.

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 6, 7 October (2015), Article 8502 ISSN 2041-1723 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA14-02634S; GA ČR GA13-23940S; GA MZd(CZ) NV15-29835A Grant - others:GA MŠk(CZ) LL1201; AV ČR + DAAD(CZ-DE) DAAD-15-30 Program:Bilaterální spolupráce Institutional support: RVO:67985807 Keywords : causality * climate * complex systems * dimension reduction * atmospheric dynamics * networks * dynamical systems Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 11.329, year: 2015

  15. Causal relationship between CO₂ emissions, real GDP, energy consumption, financial development, trade openness, and urbanization in Tunisia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farhani, Sahbi; Ozturk, Ilhan

    2015-10-01

    The aim of this paper is to examine the causal relationship between CO2 emissions, real GDP, energy consumption, financial development, trade openness, and urbanization in Tunisia over the period of 1971-2012. The long-run relationship is investigated by the auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration and error correction method (ECM). The results of the analysis reveal a positive sign for the coefficient of financial development, suggesting that the financial development in Tunisia has taken place at the expense of environmental pollution. The Tunisian case also shows a positive monotonic relationship between real GDP and CO2 emissions. This means that the results do not support the validity of environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis. In addition, the paper explores causal relationship between the variables by using Granger causality models and it concludes that financial development plays a vital role in the Tunisian economy.

  16. Causal beliefs about intellectual disability and schizophrenia and their relationship with awareness of the condition and social distance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scior, Katrina; Furnham, Adrian

    2016-09-30

    Evidence on mental illness stigma abounds yet little is known about public perceptions of intellectual disability. This study examined causal beliefs about intellectual disability and schizophrenia and how these relate to awareness of the condition and social distance. UK lay people aged 16+(N=1752), in response to vignettes depicting intellectual disability and schizophrenia, noted their interpretation of the difficulties, and rated their agreement with 22 causal and four social distance items. They were most likely to endorse environmental causes for intellectual disability, and biomedical factors, trauma and early disadvantage for schizophrenia. Accurate identification of both vignettes was associated with stronger endorsement of biomedical causes, alongside weaker endorsement of adversity, environmental and supernatural causes. Biomedical causal beliefs and social distance were negatively correlated for intellectual disability, but not for schizophrenia. Causal beliefs mediated the relationship between identification of the condition and social distance for both conditions. While all four types of causal beliefs acted as mediators for intellectual disability, for schizophrenia only supernatural causal beliefs did. Educating the public and promoting certain causal beliefs may be of benefit in tackling intellectual disability stigma, but for schizophrenia, other than tackling supernatural attributions, may be of little benefit in reducing stigma. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. A putative causal relationship between genetically determined female body shape and posttraumatic stress disorder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polimanti, Renato; Amstadter, Ananda B; Stein, Murray B; Almli, Lynn M; Baker, Dewleen G; Bierut, Laura J; Bradley, Bekh; Farrer, Lindsay A; Johnson, Eric O; King, Anthony; Kranzler, Henry R; Maihofer, Adam X; Rice, John P; Roberts, Andrea L; Saccone, Nancy L; Zhao, Hongyu; Liberzon, Israel; Ressler, Kerry J; Nievergelt, Caroline M; Koenen, Karestan C; Gelernter, Joel

    2017-11-27

    The nature and underlying mechanisms of the observed increased vulnerability to posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) in women are unclear. We investigated the genetic overlap of PTSD with anthropometric traits and reproductive behaviors and functions in women. The analysis was conducted using female-specific summary statistics from large genome-wide association studies (GWAS) and a cohort of 3577 European American women (966 PTSD cases and 2611 trauma-exposed controls). We applied a high-resolution polygenic score approach and Mendelian randomization analysis to investigate genetic correlations and causal relationships. We observed an inverse association of PTSD with genetically determined anthropometric traits related to body shape, independent of body mass index (BMI). The top association was related to BMI-adjusted waist circumference (WC adj ; R = -0.079, P body shape and PTSD, which could be mediated by evolutionary mechanisms involved in human sexual behaviors.

  18. Next generation sequencing identifies abnormal Y chromosome and candidate causal variants in premature ovarian failure patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Yujung; Kim, Changshin; Park, YoungJoon; Pyun, Jung-A; Kwack, KyuBum

    2016-12-01

    Premature ovarian failure (POF) is characterized by heterogeneous genetic causes such as chromosomal abnormalities and variants in causal genes. Recently, development of techniques made next generation sequencing (NGS) possible to detect genome wide variants including chromosomal abnormalities. Among 37 Korean POF patients, XY karyotype with distal part deletions of Y chromosome, Yp11.32-31 and Yp12 end part, was observed in two patients through NGS. Six deleterious variants in POF genes were also detected which might explain the pathogenesis of POF with abnormalities in the sex chromosomes. Additionally, the two POF patients had no mutation in SRY but three non-synonymous variants were detected in genes regarding sex reversal. These findings suggest candidate causes of POF and sex reversal and show the propriety of NGS to approach the heterogeneous pathogenesis of POF. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Insights into the causal relationship between slow slip and tectonic tremor in Guerrero, Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villafuerte, Carlos; Cruz-Atienza, Víctor M.

    2017-08-01

    Similar to other subduction zones, tectonic tremors (TTs) and slow-slip events (SSEs) take place in the deep segment of the plate interface in Guerrero, Mexico. However, their spatial correlation in this region is not as clear as the episodic tremor and slip observed in Cascadia and Japan. In this study we provide insights into the causal relationship between TTs and SSEs in Guerrero by analyzing the evolution of the deformation fields induced by the long-term 2006 SSE together with new locations of TTs and low-frequency earthquakes (LFEs). Unlike previous studies we find that the SSE slip rate modulates the TT and LFE activity in the whole tremor region. This means that the causal relationship between the SSE and the TT activity directly depends on the stressing rate history of the tremor asperities that is modulated by the surrounding slip rate. We estimated that the frictional strength of the asperities producing tremor downdip in the sweet spot is around 3.2 kPa, which is 2.3 times smaller than the corresponding value updip in the transient zone, partly explaining the overwhelming tremor activity of the sweet spot despite that the slow slip there is smaller. Based on the LFE occurrence-rate history during the interlong-term SSE period, we determined that the short-term SSEs in Guerrero take place further downdip (about 35 km) than previously estimated, with maximum slip of about 8 mm in the sweet spot. This new model features a continuum of slow slip extending across the entire tremor region of Guerrero.

  20. Infertile Individuals’ Marital Relationship Status, Happiness, and Mental Health: A Causal Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmadi Forooshany, Seyed Habiballah; Yazdkhasti, Fariba; Safari Hajataghaie, Saiede; Nasr Esfahani, Mohammad Hossein

    2014-01-01

    Background This study examined the causal model of relation between marital relation- ship status, happiness, and mental health in infertile individuals. Materials and Methods In this descriptive study, 155 subjects (men: 52 and women: 78), who had been visited in one of the infertility Centers, voluntarily participated in a self-evaluation. Golombok Rust Inventory of Marital Status, Oxford Happiness Ques- tionnaire, and General Health Questionnaire were used as instruments of the study. Data was analyzed by SPSS17 and Amos 5 software using descriptive statistics, independent sample t test, and path analysis. Results Disregarding the gender factor, marital relationship status was directly related to happiness (phappiness was directly related to mental health, (phappiness and mental health was significant (phappiness had a mediator role in relation between marital relationship status and mental health in infertile individu- als disregarding the gender factor. Also, considering the gender factor, only in infertile women, marital relationship status can directly and indirectly affect happiness and mental health. PMID:25379161

  1. The relationship between urinary tract infection during pregnancy and preeclampsia: causal, confounded or spurious?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karmon, Anatte; Sheiner, Eyal

    2008-06-01

    Preeclampsia is a major cause of maternal morbidity, although its precise etiology remains elusive. A number of studies suggest that urinary tract infection (UTI) during the course of gestation is associated with elevated risk for preeclampsia, while others have failed to prove such an association. In our medical center, pregnant women who were exposed to at least one UTI episode during pregnancy were 1.3 times more likely to have mild preeclampsia and 1.8 times more likely to have severe preeclampsia as compared to unexposed women. Our results are based on univariate analyses and are not adjusted for potential confounders. This editorial aims to discuss the relationship between urinary tract infection and preeclampsia, as well as examine the current problems regarding the interpretation of this association. Although the relationship between UTI and preeclampsia has been demonstrated in studies with various designs, carried-out in a variety of settings, the nature of this association is unclear. By taking into account timeline, dose-response effects, treatment influences, and potential confounders, as well as by neutralizing potential biases, future studies may be able to clarify the relationship between UTI and preeclampsia by determining if it is causal, confounded, or spurious.

  2. Causality and headache triggers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, Dana P.; Smitherman, Todd A.; Martin, Vincent T.; Penzien, Donald B.; Houle, Timothy T.

    2013-01-01

    Objective The objective of this study was to explore the conditions necessary to assign causal status to headache triggers. Background The term “headache trigger” is commonly used to label any stimulus that is assumed to cause headaches. However, the assumptions required for determining if a given stimulus in fact has a causal-type relationship in eliciting headaches have not been explicated. Methods A synthesis and application of Rubin’s Causal Model is applied to the context of headache causes. From this application the conditions necessary to infer that one event (trigger) causes another (headache) are outlined using basic assumptions and examples from relevant literature. Results Although many conditions must be satisfied for a causal attribution, three basic assumptions are identified for determining causality in headache triggers: 1) constancy of the sufferer; 2) constancy of the trigger effect; and 3) constancy of the trigger presentation. A valid evaluation of a potential trigger’s effect can only be undertaken once these three basic assumptions are satisfied during formal or informal studies of headache triggers. Conclusions Evaluating these assumptions is extremely difficult or infeasible in clinical practice, and satisfying them during natural experimentation is unlikely. Researchers, practitioners, and headache sufferers are encouraged to avoid natural experimentation to determine the causal effects of headache triggers. Instead, formal experimental designs or retrospective diary studies using advanced statistical modeling techniques provide the best approaches to satisfy the required assumptions and inform causal statements about headache triggers. PMID:23534872

  3. Cross-lagged relations between mentoring received from supervisors and employee OCBs: Disentangling causal direction and identifying boundary conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eby, Lillian T; Butts, Marcus M; Hoffman, Brian J; Sauer, Julia B

    2015-07-01

    Although mentoring has documented relationships with employee attitudes and outcomes of interest to organizations, neither the causal direction nor boundary conditions of the relationship between mentoring and organizational citizenship behaviors (OCBs) has been fully explored. On the basis of Social Learning Theory (SLT; Bandura, 1977, 1986), we predicted that mentoring received by supervisors would causally precede OCBs, rather than employee OCBs resulting in the receipt of more mentoring from supervisors. Results from cross-lagged data collected at 2 points in time from 190 intact supervisor-employee dyads supported our predictions; however, only for OCBs directed at individuals (OCB-Is) and not for OCBs directed at the organization (OCB-Os). Further supporting our theoretical rationale for expecting mentoring to precede OCBs, we found that coworker support operates as a substitute for mentoring in predicting OCB-Is. By contrast, no moderating effects were found for perceived organizational support. The results are discussed in terms of theoretical implications for mentoring and OCB research, as well as practical suggestions for enhancing employee citizenship behaviors. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  4. Identifying abnormal connectivity in patients using Dynamic Causal Modelling of fMRI responses.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohamed L Seghier

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Functional imaging studies of brain damaged patients offer a unique opportunity to understand how sensori-motor and cognitive tasks can be carried out when parts of the neural system that support normal performance are no longer available. In addition to knowing which regions a patient activates, we also need to know how these regions interact with one another, and how these inter-regional interactions deviate from normal. Dynamic Causal Modelling (DCM offers the opportunity to assess task-dependent interactions within a set of regions. Here we review its use in patients when the question of interest concerns the characterisation of abnormal connectivity for a given pathology. We describe the currently available implementations of DCM for fMRI responses, varying from the deterministic bilinear models with one-state equation to the stochastic nonlinear models with two-state equations. We also highlight the importance of the new Bayesian model selection and averaging tools that allow different plausible models to be compared at the single subject and group level. These procedures allow inferences to be made at different levels of model selection, from features (model families to connectivity parameters. Following a critical review of previous DCM studies that investigated abnormal connectivity we propose a systematic procedure that will ensure more flexibility and efficiency when using DCM in patients. Finally, some practical and methodological issues crucial for interpreting or generalising DCM findings in patients are discussed.

  5. THE CAUSAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CONSANGUINEOUS MARRIAGES AND INFANT MORTALITY IN TURKEY.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koç, İsmet; Eryurt, Mehmet Alİ

    2017-07-01

    Turkey has high levels of infant mortality and consanguineous marriages. It has had a high level of infant mortality for its economic level for many years. Over recent decades, although adult mortality rates have not been very different from those of other countries with similar socioeconomic structures, its life expectancy at birth has remained low due to its high infant mortality rate. This has been called the Turkish Puzzle. According to the Turkey Family Structure and Population Issues Survey, 27% of women had a consanguineous marriage in 1968. Subsequent Turkish Demographic and Health Surveys (TDHSs) found the rate of consanguineous marriages to be stagnated at 22-24%, with a resistance to reduction. According to the TDHS-2008, 24% of women had a consanguineous marriage. Numerous studies in various countries of the world have indicated that consanguineous marriages, particularly of first-degree, have the effect of increasing infant mortality. The main aim of this study was to assess the causal impact of consanguineous, particularly first-degree consanguineous, marriages on infant mortality, controlling for individual, cultural, bio-demographic and environmental factors. Data were merged from four Turkish DHS data sets (1993, 1998, 2003 and 2008). Multivariate analysis revealed that first-degree consanguineous marriages have increased infant mortality by 45% in Turkey: 57% in urban areas and 39% in rural areas. The results indicate that there is a causal relationship between consanguineous marriages and infant mortality. This finding should be taken into account when planning policies to reduce infant mortality in Turkey, and in other countries with high rates of consanguineous marriage and infant mortality.

  6. Linear and nonlinear causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in China: New evidence based on wavelet analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2018-01-01

    The energy-growth nexus has important policy implications for economic development. The results from many past studies that investigated the causality direction of this nexus can lead to misleading policy guidance. Using data on China from 1953 to 2013, this study shows that an application of causality test on the time series of energy consumption and national output has masked a lot of information. The Toda-Yamamoto test with bootstrapped critical values and the newly proposed non-linear causality test reveal no causal relationship. However, a further application of these tests using series in different time-frequency domain obtained from wavelet decomposition indicates that while energy consumption Granger causes economic growth in the short run, the reverse is true in the medium term. A bidirectional causal relationship is found for the long run. This approach has proven to be superior in unveiling information on the energy-growth nexus that are useful for policy planning over different time horizons. PMID:29782534

  7. Corruption, Political Instability and Economic Development in the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS: Is There a Causal Relationship?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nurudeen Abu

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Despite the abundant research on economic development, corruption and political instability, little research has attempted to examine whether there is a causal relationship among them. This paper examines the causal relationship among corruption, political instability and economic development in the ECOWAS using the Granger causality test within a multivariate cointegration and error-correction framework for the 1996-2012 period. The findings indicate that political instability Granger-causes economic development in the short term, while political instability and economic development Granger-cause corruption in the long term. In addition, we employed the forecast error variance decomposition and impulse response function analyses to investigate the dynamic interaction between the variables. The results demonstrate positive unidirectional Granger causality from political instability to economic development in the short term and positive unidirectional Granger causality from political instability and economic development to corruption in the long term in ECOWAS countries. Thus, ECOWAS governments should employ policies to promote political stability in the region.

  8. Assessing causality in the relationship between adolescents' risky sexual online behavior and their perceptions of this behavior

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Baumgartner, S.E.; Valkenburg, P.M.; Peter, J.

    2010-01-01

    The main aim of this study was to investigate the causal nature of the relationship between adolescents' risky sexual behavior on the internet and their perceptions of this behavior. Engagement in the following online behaviors was assessed: searching online for someone to talk about sex, searching

  9. Causal Relationships between Communication Confidence, Beliefs about Group Work, and Willingness to Communicate in Foreign Language Group Work

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fushino, Kumiko

    2010-01-01

    This article reports on the causal relationships between three factors in second language (L2) group work settings: communication confidence (i.e., confidence in one's ability to communicate), beliefs about group work, and willingness to communicate (WTC). A questionnaire was administered to 729 first-year university students in Japan. A model…

  10. Causal relationship between obesity and vitamin D status: bi-directional Mendelian randomization analysis of multiple cohorts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vimaleswaran, K.S.; Berry, D.J.; Lu, C.; Tikkanen, E.; Pilz, S.; Hiraki, L.T.; Cooper, J.D.; Dastani, Z.; Li, R.; Houston, D.K.; Wood, A.R.; Michaelsson, K.; Vandenput, L.; Zgaga, L.; Yerges-Armstrong, L.M.; McCarthy, M.I.; Dupuis, J.; Kaakinen, M.; Kleber, M.E.; Jameson, K.; Arden, N.; Raitakari, O.; Viikari, J.; Lohman, K.K.; Ferrucci, L.; Melhus, H.; Ingelsson, E.; Byberg, L.; Lind, L.; Lorentzon, M.; Salomaa, V.; Campbell, H.; Dunlop, M.; Mitchell, B.D.; Herzig, K.H.; Pouta, A.; Hartikainen, A.L.; Streeten, E.A.; Theodoratou, E.; Jula, A.; Wareham, N.J.; Ohlsson, C.; Frayling, T.M.; Kritchevsky, S.B.; Spector, T.D.; Richards, J.B.; Lehtimaki, T.; Ouwehand, W.H.; Kraft, P.; Cooper, C.; Marz, W.; Power, C.; Loos, R.J.; Wang, T.J.; Jarvelin, M.R.; Whittaker, J.C.; Hingorani, A.D.; Hypponen, E.; Kiemeney, L.A.L.M.; et al.,

    2013-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Obesity is associated with vitamin D deficiency, and both are areas of active public health concern. We explored the causality and direction of the relationship between body mass index (BMI) and 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] using genetic markers as instrumental variables (IVs) in

  11. Causal relationship between obesity and vitamin D status: bi-directional Mendelian randomization analysis of multiple cohorts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vimaleswaran, K.S.; Berry, D.J.; Lu, C.; Tikkanen, E.; Pilz, S.; Hiraki, L.T.; Cooper, J.D.; Dastani, Z.; Li, R.; Houston, D.K.; Wood, A.R.; Michaëlsson, K.; Vandenput, L.; Zgaga, L.; Yerges-Armstrong, L.M.; McCarthy, M.I.; Dupuis, J.; Kaakinen, M.; Kleber, M.E.; Jameson, K.; Arden, N.; Raitakari, O.; Viikari, J.; Lohman, K.K.; Ferrucci, L.; Melhus, H.; Ingelsson, E.; Byberg, L.; Lind, L.; Lorentzon, M.; Salomaa, V.; Campbell, H.; Dunlop, M.; Mitchell, B.D.; Herzig, K.H.; Pouta, A.; Hartikainen, A.L.; Hottenga, J.J.; de Geus, E.J.C.; Willemsen, G.; Boomsma, D.I.; Penninx, B.W.J.H.; Uitterlinden, A.G.; Visscher, P.M.; van Duijn, C.M.; Streeten, E.A.; Theodoratou, E.; Jula, A.; Wareham, N.J.; Ohlsson, C.; Frayling, T.M.; Kritchevsky, S.B.; Spector, T.D.; Richards, J.B.; Lehtimäki, T.; Ouwehand, W.H.; Kraft, P.; Cooper, C.; März, W.; Power, C.; Loos, R.J.; Wang, T.J.; Järvelin, M.R.; Whittaker, J.C.; Hingorani, A.D.; Hyppönen, E.

    2013-01-01

    Background: Obesity is associated with vitamin D deficiency, and both are areas of active public health concern. We explored the causality and direction of the relationship between body mass index (BMI) and 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] using genetic markers as instrumental variables (IVs) in

  12. Cross-Correlation Asymmetries and Causal Relationships between Stock and Market Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borysov, Stanislav S.; Balatsky, Alexander V.

    2014-01-01

    We study historical correlations and lead-lag relationships between individual stock risk (volatility of daily stock returns) and market risk (volatility of daily returns of a market-representative portfolio) in the US stock market. We consider the cross-correlation functions averaged over all stocks, using 71 stock prices from the Standard & Poor's 500 index for 1994–2013. We focus on the behavior of the cross-correlations at the times of financial crises with significant jumps of market volatility. The observed historical dynamics showed that the dependence between the risks was almost linear during the US stock market downturn of 2002 and after the US housing bubble in 2007, remaining at that level until 2013. Moreover, the averaged cross-correlation function often had an asymmetric shape with respect to zero lag in the periods of high correlation. We develop the analysis by the application of the linear response formalism to study underlying causal relations. The calculated response functions suggest the presence of characteristic regimes near financial crashes, when the volatility of an individual stock follows the market volatility and vice versa. PMID:25162697

  13. Growth and oil price: A study of causal relationships in small Pacific Island countries

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jayaraman, T.K. [School of Economics, Faculty of Business and Economics, The University of the South Pacific, Laucala Bay Road, Suva (Fiji); Choong, Chee-Keong [Department of Economics and Finance, Faculty of Business and Finance, Universiti Tunku Abdul Rahman (Perak Campus), Jalan Universiti, Bandar Barat, 31900 Kampar, Perak Darul Ridzuan (Malaysia)], E-mail: choongck@utar.edu.my

    2009-06-15

    This paper investigates the nexus between economic growth and oil price in small Pacific Island countries (PICs). Except Papua New Guinea, none of the 14 PICs has fossil any fuel resources. Consequently, the other 13 PICs are totally dependent on oil imports for their economic activities. Since PICs have limited foreign exchange earning capacities, as they have a very narrow range of exports and are highly dependent on foreign aid, high oil prices in recent months have seriously tested their economic resilience. This paper applies the ARDL bounds testing methodology to four selected PICs, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tonga and Vanuatu, which have consistent and reliable time series of data, with a view to assess the impact of oil price on economic growth. The findings are that oil price, gross domestic product and international reserve are cointegrated in all the four PICs. Further, both in the long and short runs, we observe that there is a uni-directional relationship as causality linkage runs only from oil price and international reserves to economic growth. The paper makes some policy recommendations.

  14. Growth and oil price. A study of causal relationships in small Pacific Island countries

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jayaraman, T.K. [School of Economics, Faculty of Business and Economics, The University of the South Pacific, Laucala Bay Road, Suva (Fiji); Choong, Chee-Keong [Department of Economics and Finance, Faculty of Business and Finance, Universiti Tunku Abdul Rahman (Perak Campus), Jalan Universiti, Bandar Barat, 31900 Kampar, Perak Darul Ridzuan (Malaysia)

    2009-06-15

    This paper investigates the nexus between economic growth and oil price in small Pacific Island countries (PICs). Except Papua New Guinea, none of the 14 PICs has fossil any fuel resources. Consequently, the other 13 PICs are totally dependent on oil imports for their economic activities. Since PICs have limited foreign exchange earning capacities, as they have a very narrow range of exports and are highly dependent on foreign aid, high oil prices in recent months have seriously tested their economic resilience. This paper applies the ARDL bounds testing methodology to four selected PICs, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tonga and Vanuatu, which have consistent and reliable time series of data, with a view to assess the impact of oil price on economic growth. The findings are that oil price, gross domestic product and international reserve are cointegrated in all the four PICs. Further, both in the long and short runs, we observe that there is a uni-directional relationship as causality linkage runs only from oil price and international reserves to economic growth. The paper makes some policy recommendations. (author)

  15. Growth and oil price: A study of causal relationships in small Pacific Island countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jayaraman, T.K.; Choong, Chee-Keong

    2009-01-01

    This paper investigates the nexus between economic growth and oil price in small Pacific Island countries (PICs). Except Papua New Guinea, none of the 14 PICs has fossil any fuel resources. Consequently, the other 13 PICs are totally dependent on oil imports for their economic activities. Since PICs have limited foreign exchange earning capacities, as they have a very narrow range of exports and are highly dependent on foreign aid, high oil prices in recent months have seriously tested their economic resilience. This paper applies the ARDL bounds testing methodology to four selected PICs, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tonga and Vanuatu, which have consistent and reliable time series of data, with a view to assess the impact of oil price on economic growth. The findings are that oil price, gross domestic product and international reserve are cointegrated in all the four PICs. Further, both in the long and short runs, we observe that there is a uni-directional relationship as causality linkage runs only from oil price and international reserves to economic growth. The paper makes some policy recommendations.

  16. Cross-correlation asymmetries and causal relationships between stock and market risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borysov, Stanislav S; Balatsky, Alexander V

    2014-01-01

    We study historical correlations and lead-lag relationships between individual stock risk (volatility of daily stock returns) and market risk (volatility of daily returns of a market-representative portfolio) in the US stock market. We consider the cross-correlation functions averaged over all stocks, using 71 stock prices from the Standard & Poor's 500 index for 1994-2013. We focus on the behavior of the cross-correlations at the times of financial crises with significant jumps of market volatility. The observed historical dynamics showed that the dependence between the risks was almost linear during the US stock market downturn of 2002 and after the US housing bubble in 2007, remaining at that level until 2013. Moreover, the averaged cross-correlation function often had an asymmetric shape with respect to zero lag in the periods of high correlation. We develop the analysis by the application of the linear response formalism to study underlying causal relations. The calculated response functions suggest the presence of characteristic regimes near financial crashes, when the volatility of an individual stock follows the market volatility and vice versa.

  17. Under What Assumptions Do Site-by-Treatment Instruments Identify Average Causal Effects?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reardon, Sean F.; Raudenbush, Stephen W.

    2013-01-01

    The increasing availability of data from multi-site randomized trials provides a potential opportunity to use instrumental variables methods to study the effects of multiple hypothesized mediators of the effect of a treatment. We derive nine assumptions needed to identify the effects of multiple mediators when using site-by-treatment interactions…

  18. Identifying the default mode network structure using dynamic causal modeling on resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di, Xin; Biswal, Bharat B

    2014-02-01

    The default mode network is part of the brain structure that shows higher neural activity and energy consumption when one is at rest. The key regions in the default mode network are highly interconnected as conveyed by both the white matter fiber tracing and the synchrony of resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging signals. However, the causal information flow within the default mode network is still poorly understood. The current study used the dynamic causal modeling on a resting-state fMRI data set to identify the network structure underlying the default mode network. The endogenous brain fluctuations were explicitly modeled by Fourier series at the low frequency band of 0.01-0.08Hz, and those Fourier series were set as driving inputs of the DCM models. Model comparison procedures favored a model wherein the MPFC sends information to the PCC and the bilateral inferior parietal lobule sends information to both the PCC and MPFC. Further analyses provide evidence that the endogenous connectivity might be higher in the right hemisphere than in the left hemisphere. These data provided insight into the functions of each node in the DMN, and also validate the usage of DCM on resting-state fMRI data. © 2013.

  19. Causal relationship between the global foreign exchange market based on complex networks and entropy theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cao, Guangxi; Zhang, Qi; Li, Qingchen

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • Mutual information is used as the edge weights of nodes instead of PCC, which overcomes the shortcomings of linear correlation functions. • SGD turns into a new cluster center and gradually becomes a point connecting the Asian and European clusters during and after the US sub-prime crisis. • Liang's entropy theory, which has not been adopted before in the global foreign exchange market, is considered. - Abstract: The foreign exchange (FX) market is a typical complex dynamic system under the background of exchange rate marketization reform and is an important part of the financial market. This study aims to generate an international FX network based on complex network theory. This study employs the mutual information method to judge the nonlinear characteristics of 54 major currencies in international FX markets. Through this method, we find that the FX network possesses a small average path length and a large clustering coefficient under different thresholds and that it exhibits small-world characteristics as a whole. Results show that the relationship between FX rates is close. Volatility can quickly transfer in the whole market, and the FX volatility of influential individual states transfers at a fast pace and a large scale. The period from July 21, 2005 to March 31, 2015 is subdivided into three sub-periods (i.e., before, during, and after the US sub-prime crisis) to analyze the topology evolution of FX markets using the maximum spanning tree approach. Results show that the USD gradually lost its core position, EUR remained a stable center, and the center of the Asian cluster became unstable. Liang's entropy theory is used to analyze the causal relationship between the four large clusters of the world.

  20. Using Extreme Phenotype Sampling to Identify the Rare Causal Variants of Quantitative Traits in Association Studies

    OpenAIRE

    Li, Dalin; Lewinger, Juan Pablo; Gauderman, William J.; Murcray, Cassandra Elizabeth; Conti, David

    2011-01-01

    Variants identified in recent genome-wide association studies based on the common-disease common-variant hypothesis are far from fully explaining the hereditability of complex traits. Rare variants may, in part, explain some of the missing hereditability. Here, we explored the advantage of the extreme phenotype sampling in rare-variant analysis and refined this design framework for future large-scale association studies on quantitative traits. We first proposed a power calculation approach fo...

  1. Genetic Evidence for Causal Relationships Between Maternal Obesity-Related Traits and Birth Weight

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tyrrell, Jessica; Richmond, Rebecca C; Palmer, Tom M

    2016-01-01

    IMPORTANCE: Neonates born to overweight or obese women are larger and at higher risk of birth complications. Many maternal obesity-related traits are observationally associated with birth weight, but the causal nature of these associations is uncertain. OBJECTIVE: To test for genetic evidence...... of causal associations of maternal body mass index (BMI) and related traits with birth weight. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Mendelian randomization to test whether maternal BMI and obesity-related traits are potentially causally related to offspring birth weight. Data from 30,487 women in 18 studies...

  2. The Relationship between Shadow Economy and Unemployment Rate. A Ardl Causality Analysis for the Case Of Romania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adriana AnaMaria DAVIDESCU

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper aims to investigate the nature of the relationship between the shadow economy (SE and unemployment rates (both registered and ILO for the case of Romania using Pesaran et al.(2001 bounds tests approach for cointegration. The study uses quarterly data covering the period 2000-2010. The size of Romanian shadow economy is estimated using the currency demand approach based on VECM models, stating that its size is decreasing over the analyzed period, from 36.5% at the end of 2000 to about 31.5% of real GDP at the middle of 2010. To investigate the long-run causal linkages and short-run dynamics between shadow economy and unemployment rate, ARDL cointegration approach is applied. Cointegration test results shows that in short-run both ILO and registered unemployment rate has a negative and statistically significant effect on the size of the shadow economy, while in the long-run the unemployment rates have a positive effect on shadow economy. The ARDL causality results revealed the existence of a long-run unidirectional causality that runs from unemployment rates (registered or ILO to shadow economy. In addition, the CUSUM and CUSUMSQ tests confirm the stability of the both causal relationships.

  3. Causal Relationship between Liquidity and Profitability of Nigerian Deposit Money Banks

    OpenAIRE

    Odunayo M. Olarewaju; Oluwafeyisayo K. Adeyemi

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to examine the existence and direction of causality between liquidity and profitability of deposit money banks in Nigeria. Fifteen quoted banks out of the existing nineteen banks were selected for the study. They are; Guarantee Trust bank, Zenith bank, Skye bank, Wema bank, Sterling bank, First City Monument bank, United Bank for Africa, Eco bank, First bank, Access bank, Diamond bank, Unity bank, Fidelity bank, Union bank and IBTC bank. Pairwise Granga Causality test...

  4. Causal relationships between solar proton events and single event upsets for communication satellites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lohmeyer, W. Q.; Cahoy, K.; Liu, Shiyang

    In this work, we analyze a historical archive of single event upsets (SEUs) maintained by Inmarsat, one of the world's leading providers of global mobile satellite communications services. Inmarsat has operated its geostationary communication satellites and collected extensive satellite anomaly and telemetry data since 1990. Over the course of the past twenty years, the satellites have experienced more than 226 single event upsets (SEUs), a catch-all term for anomalies that occur in a satellite's electronics such as bit-flips, trips in power supplies, and memory changes in attitude control systems. While SEUs are seemingly random and difficult to predict, we correlate their occurrences to space weather phenomena, and specifically show correlations between SEUs and solar proton events (SPEs). SPEs are highly energetic protons that originate from solar coronal mass ejections (CMEs). It is thought that when these particles impact geostationary (GEO) satellites they can cause SEUs as well as solar array degradation. We calculate the associated statistical correlations that each SEU occurs within one day, one week, two weeks, and one month of 10 MeV SPEs between 10 - 10,000 particle flux units (pfu). However, we find that SPEs are most prevalent at solar maximum and that the SEUs on Inmarsat's satellites occur out of phase with the solar maximum. Ultimately, this suggests that SPEs are not the primary cause of the Inmarsat SEUs. A better understanding of the causal relationship between SPEs and SEUs will help the satellite communications industry develop component and operational space weather mitigation techniques as well as help the space weather community to refine radiation models.

  5. Causal relationship between adiponectin and metabolic traits: a Mendelian randomization study in a multiethnic population.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew Mente

    Full Text Available Adiponectin, a secretagogue exclusively produced by adipocytes, has been associated with metabolic features, but its role in the development of the metabolic syndrome remains unclear.We investigated the association between serum adiponectin level and metabolic traits, using both observational and genetic epidemiologic approaches in a multiethnic population assembled in Canada.Clinical data and serum adiponectin level were collected in 1,157 participants of the SHARE/SHARE-AP studies. Participants were genotyped for the functional rs266729 and rs1260326 SNPs in ADIPOQ and GCKR genes.Adiponectin level was positively associated with HDL cholesterol and negatively associated with body mass index, waist-to-hip ratio, triglycerides, fasting glucose, fasting insulin, systolic and diastolic pressure (all P<0.002. The rs266729 minor G allele was associated with lower adiponectin and higher HOMA-IR (P = 0.004 and 0.003, respectively. The association between rs266729 SNP and HOMA-IR was no longer significant after adjustment for adiponectin concentration (P = 0.10. The rs266729 SNP was associated with HOMA-IR to an extent that exceeded its effect on adiponectin level (0.15 SD 95% C.I. [0.06, 0.24], P<0.001. There was no significant interaction between rs266729 SNP and ethnicity on adiponectin or HOMA-IR. In contrast, the SNP rs1260326 in GCKR was associated with HOMA-IR (P<0.001, but not with adiponectin level (P = 0.67.The association of the functional promoter polymorphism rs266729 with lower serum adiponectin and increased insulin resistance in diverse ethnic groups may suggest a causal relationship between adiponectin level and insulin resistance.

  6. Deconstructing Constructivism: Modeling Causal Relationships Among Constructivist Learning Environment Factors and Student Outcomes in Introductory Chemistry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komperda, Regis

    The purpose of this dissertation is to test a model of relationships among factors characterizing aspects of a student-centered constructivist learning environment and student outcomes of satisfaction and academic achievement in introductory undergraduate chemistry courses. Constructivism was chosen as the theoretical foundation for this research because of its widespread use in chemical education research and practice. In a constructivist learning environment the role of the teacher shifts from delivering content towards facilitating active student engagement in activities that encourage individual knowledge construction through discussion and application of content. Constructivist approaches to teaching introductory chemistry courses have been adopted by some instructors as a way to improve student outcomes, but little research has been done on the causal relationships among particular aspects of the learning environment and student outcomes. This makes it difficult for classroom teachers to know which aspects of a constructivist teaching approach are critical to adopt and which may be modified to better suit a particular learning environment while still improving student outcomes. To investigate a model of these relationships, a survey designed to measure student perceptions of three factors characterizing a constructivist learning environment in online courses was adapted for use in face-to-face chemistry courses. These three factors, teaching presence, social presence, and cognitive presence, were measured using a slightly modified version of the Community of Inquiry (CoI) instrument. The student outcomes investigated in this research were satisfaction and academic achievement, as measured by standardized American Chemical Society (ACS) exam scores and course grades. Structural equation modeling (SEM) was used to statistically model relationships among the three presence factors and student outcome variables for 391 students enrolled in six sections of a

  7. Determining the causal relationships among entrepreneurship, educational attainment and per capita GDP in high-income OECD countries

    OpenAIRE

    Feyza BALAN; Seda OZEKICIOGLU; Cuneyt KILIC

    2016-01-01

    The entrepreneurship has been evaluated as playing a central role in explaining economic growth by many economists and policy makers. This role has recently been the subject of a growing literature. However, entrepreneurship literature generally has been focused on evaluating the effect of entrepreneurship on economic growth. This study will evaluate the causal relationships among women’s and men’s entrepreneurship, women’s and men’s educational attainment and per capita GDP in...

  8. An Examination of the Causal Relationship among Self-Identity Development, Using SNS and SNS Addiction

    OpenAIRE

    Kubo, Shohei; Sakata, Kiriko; Shimizu, Hiroshi

    2015-01-01

    The adolescent is the big turning point during the life. Adolescents must find positive answer for the question “what is with the quality of oneself” through interactions with neighboring people to develop SELF-IDENTITY. On the other hand, Social Network Services (SNS) are highly familiar to them, making “SNS addiction” become a big social problem. This study attempted causal relationship among self-identity development and using SNS, consequently SNS addiction, from the viewpoint of personal...

  9. Fine-Scale Mapping at 9p22.2 Identifies Candidate Causal Variants That Modify Ovarian Cancer Risk in BRCA1 and BRCA2 Mutation Carriers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vigorito, E.; Kuchenbaecker, K.B.; Beesley, J.; Adlard, J.; Agnarsson, B.A.; Andrulis, I.L.; Arun, B.K.; Barjhoux, L.; Belotti, M.; Benitez, J.; Berger, A.; Bojesen, A.; Bonanni, B.; Brewer, C.; Caldes, T.; Caligo, M.A.; Campbell, I.; Chan, S.B.; Claes, K.B.; Cohn, D.E.; Cook, J.; Daly, M.B.; Damiola, F.; Davidson, R.; Pauw, A. de; Delnatte, C.; Diez, O.; Domchek, S.M.; Dumont, M.; Durda, K.; Dworniczak, B.; Easton, D.F.; Eccles, D.; Edwinsdotter Ardnor, C.; Eeles, R.; Ejlertsen, B.; Ellis, S.; Evans, D.G.; Feliubadalo, L.; Fostira, F.; Foulkes, W.D.; Friedman, E.; Frost, D.; Gaddam, P.; Ganz, P.A.; Garber, J.; Garcia-Barberan, V.; Gauthier-Villars, M.; Gehrig, A.; Gerdes, A.M.; Giraud, S.; Godwin, A.K.; Goldgar, D.E.; Hake, C.R.; Hansen, T.V.; Healey, S.; Hodgson, S.; Hogervorst, F.B.; Houdayer, C.; Hulick, P.J.; Imyanitov, E.N.; Isaacs, C.; Izatt, L.; Izquierdo, A.; Jacobs, L; Jakubowska, A.; Janavicius, R.; Jaworska-Bieniek, K.; Jensen, U.B.; John, E.M.; Vijai, J.; Karlan, B.Y.; Kast, K.; Khan, S.; Kwong, A.; Laitman, Y.; Lester, J.; Lesueur, F.; Liljegren, A.; Lubinski, J.; Mai, P.L.; Manoukian, S.; Mazoyer, S.; Meindl, A.; Mensenkamp, A.R.; Montagna, M.; Nathanson, K.L.; Neuhausen, S.L.; Nevanlinna, H.; Niederacher, D.; Olah, E.; Olopade, O.I.; Ong, K.R.; Osorio, A.; Park, S.K.; Paulsson-Karlsson, Y.; Pedersen, I.S.; Peissel, B.; Peterlongo, P.; et al.,

    2016-01-01

    Population-based genome wide association studies have identified a locus at 9p22.2 associated with ovarian cancer risk, which also modifies ovarian cancer risk in BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers. We conducted fine-scale mapping at 9p22.2 to identify potential causal variants in BRCA1 and BRCA2

  10. Fine-Scale Mapping at 9p22.2 Identifies Candidate Causal Variants That Modify Ovarian Cancer Risk in BRCA1 and BRCA2 Mutation Carriers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vigorito, Elena; Kuchenbaecker, Karoline B; Beesley, Jonathan

    2016-01-01

    Population-based genome wide association studies have identified a locus at 9p22.2 associated with ovarian cancer risk, which also modifies ovarian cancer risk in BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers. We conducted fine-scale mapping at 9p22.2 to identify potential causal variants in BRCA1 and BRCA2 ...

  11. Genetic evidence for causal relationships between maternal obesity-related traits and birth weight

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A.W.R. Tyrrell; R.C. Richmond (Rebecca C.); T.M. Palmer (Tom); B. Feenstra (Bjarke); J. Rangarajan (Janani); S. Metrustry (Sarah); A. Cavadino (Alana); L. Paternoster (Lavinia); L.L. Armstrong (Loren L.); N.M.G. De Silva (N. Maneka G.); A.R. Wood (Andrew); M. Horikoshi (Momoko); F. Geller (Frank); R. Myhre (Ronny); J.P. Bradfield (Jonathan); E. Kreiner-Møller (Eskil); I. Huikari (Ille); J.N. Painter (Jodie N.); J.J. Hottenga (Jouke Jan); C. Allard (Catherine); D. Berry (Diane); L. Bouchard (Luigi); S. Das (Shikta); D.M. Evans (David); H. Hakonarson (Hakon); M.G. Hayes (M. Geoffrey); J. Heikkinen (Jani); A. Hofman (Albert); B.A. Knight (Bridget); P.A. Lind (Penelope); M.I. McCarthy (Mark); G. Mcmahon (George); S.E. Medland (Sarah Elizabeth); M. Melbye (Mads); A.P. Morris (Andrew); M. Nodzenski (Michael); C. Reichetzeder (Christoph); S.M. Ring (Susan); S. Sebert (Sylvain); V. Sengpiel (Verena); T.I.A. Sørensen (Thorkild); G.A.H.M. Willemsen (Gonneke); E.J.C. de Geus (Eco); N.G. Martin (Nicholas); T.D. Spector (Timothy); C. Power (Christine); M.-R. Jarvelin (Marjo-Riitta); H. Bisgaard (Hans); S.F.A. Grant (Struan); C. Nohr (Christian); V.W.V. Jaddoe (Vincent); B. Jacobsson (Bo); J.C. Murray (Jeffrey C.); B. Hocher (Berthold); A.T. Hattersley (Andrew); D.M. Scholtens (Denise M.); G.D. Smith; M.-F. Hivert (Marie-France); J.F. Felix (Janine); E. Hypponen (Elina); W.L. Lowe Jr. (William); T.M. Frayling (Timothy); D.A. Lawlor (Debbie); R.M. Freathy (Rachel)

    2016-01-01

    textabstractIMPORTANCE Neonates born to overweight or obese women are larger and at higher risk of birth complications. Many maternal obesity-related traits are observationally associated with birth weight, but the causal nature of these associations is uncertain. OBJECTIVE To test for genetic

  12. Investigating the Causal Relationship of C-Reactive Protein with 32 Complex Somatic and Psychiatric Outcomes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Prins, Bram P; Abbasi, Ali; Wong, Anson

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: C-reactive protein (CRP) is associated with immune, cardiometabolic, and psychiatric traits and diseases. Yet it is inconclusive whether these associations are causal. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We performed Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses using two genetic risk scores (GRSs) as inst...

  13. The Nonlinear Dynamic Relationship of Exchange Rates: Parametric and Nonparametric Causality testing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bekiros, S.D.; Diks, C.

    2007-01-01

    The present study investigates the long-term linear and nonlinear causal linkages among six currencies, namely EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF, AUD/USD and USD/CAD. The prime motivation for choosing these exchange rates comes from the fact that they are the most liquid and widely traded, covering

  14. A Longitudinal Study of Children's Social Behaviors and Their Causal Relationship to Reading Growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, Hyo Jin; Kim, Junyeop

    2011-01-01

    This paper aims at investigating the causal effects of social behaviors on subsequent reading growth in elementary school, using the "Early Childhood Longitudinal Study-Kindergarten" ("ECLS-K") data. The sample was 8,869 subjects who provided longitudinal measures of reading IRT scores from kindergarten (1998-1999) to fifth…

  15. The Relationship between Social Leisure and Life Satisfaction: Causality and Policy Implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becchetti, Leonardo; Giachin Ricca, Elena; Pelloni, Alessandra

    2012-01-01

    Social leisure is generally found to be positively correlated with life satisfaction in the empirical literature. We ask if this association captures a genuine causal effect by using panel data from the GSOEP. Our identification strategy exploits the change in social leisure brought about by retirement, since the latter is an event after which the…

  16. Foreign Language Listening Anxiety and Listening Performance: Conceptualizations and Causal Relationships

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xian

    2013-01-01

    This study used structural equation modeling to explore the possible causal relations between foreign language (English) listening anxiety and English listening performance. Three hundred participants learning English as a foreign language (FL) completed the foreign language listening anxiety scale (FLLAS) and IELTS test twice with an interval of…

  17. The Effects of Observation and Intervention on the Judgment of Causal and Correlational Relationships

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-07-28

    further referred to as normative models of causation. A second type of model, which are based on Pavlovian classical conditioning, is associative...covariation detection and causal judgment literature including fertilizers and plant growth; gene expression and physical traits; drug administration...Allergy Food C Reaction 4 Food Allergy Food D Reaction 1 Experimental Drug Drug A Pain Relief 2 Experimental Drug

  18. A CAUSAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN OIL PRICES CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT, AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS FROM FRAGILE FIVE COUNTRIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuksel BAYRAKTAR

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The main objective of this study is to determine the impact of oil prices in the Fragile-Five countries (Brazil, Indonesia, South Africa, India, and Turkey on current account deficit and growth. In this study, the method of panel data analysis was used and the period of 1980-2014 was examined. The Levin, Lin, & Chu panel; Im, Pesaran, and Shin W-stat; ADF-Fisher Chi-square; and PP-Fisher Chi-square unit root tests were used to determine the stability of data before panel data analysis. The results of the study can be expressed as follows. i There was a statistically meaningful relationship in oil prices with both GDP and the current account deficit. While there was a positive correlation between oil prices and GDP, there was a negative relationship between oil prices and current account deficit. ii No long-term relationship was found between GDP and oil prices; there was a long-term relationship between current account deficit and oil prices as determined by the cointegration tests. iii Causality test also showed the presence of a bidirectional relationship between GDP and oil prices.  Causality between oil prices and the current account deficit was one-way from the variable of oil price to the variable of current account deficit.

  19. Causality in Science

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristina Puente Águeda

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Causality is a fundamental notion in every field of science. Since the times of Aristotle, causal relationships have been a matter of study as a way to generate knowledge and provide for explanations. In this paper I review the notion of causality through different scientific areas such as physics, biology, engineering, etc. In the scientific area, causality is usually seen as a precise relation: the same cause provokes always the same effect. But in the everyday world, the links between cause and effect are frequently imprecise or imperfect in nature. Fuzzy logic offers an adequate framework for dealing with imperfect causality, so a few notions of fuzzy causality are introduced.

  20. An innovative strategy for the molecular diagnosis of Usher syndrome identifies causal biallelic mutations in 93% of European patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonnet, Crystel; Riahi, Zied; Chantot-Bastaraud, Sandra; Smagghe, Luce; Letexier, Mélanie; Marcaillou, Charles; Lefèvre, Gaëlle M; Hardelin, Jean-Pierre; El-Amraoui, Aziz; Singh-Estivalet, Amrit; Mohand-Saïd, Saddek; Kohl, Susanne; Kurtenbach, Anne; Sliesoraityte, Ieva; Zobor, Ditta; Gherbi, Souad; Testa, Francesco; Simonelli, Francesca; Banfi, Sandro; Fakin, Ana; Glavač, Damjan; Jarc-Vidmar, Martina; Zupan, Andrej; Battelino, Saba; Martorell Sampol, Loreto; Claveria, Maria Antonia; Catala Mora, Jaume; Dad, Shzeena; Møller, Lisbeth B; Rodriguez Jorge, Jesus; Hawlina, Marko; Auricchio, Alberto; Sahel, José-Alain; Marlin, Sandrine; Zrenner, Eberhart; Audo, Isabelle; Petit, Christine

    2016-12-01

    Usher syndrome (USH), the most prevalent cause of hereditary deafness-blindness, is an autosomal recessive and genetically heterogeneous disorder. Three clinical subtypes (USH1-3) are distinguishable based on the severity of the sensorineural hearing impairment, the presence or absence of vestibular dysfunction, and the age of onset of the retinitis pigmentosa. A total of 10 causal genes, 6 for USH1, 3 for USH2, and 1 for USH3, and an USH2 modifier gene, have been identified. A robust molecular diagnosis is required not only to improve genetic counseling, but also to advance gene therapy in USH patients. Here, we present an improved diagnostic strategy that is both cost- and time-effective. It relies on the sequential use of three different techniques to analyze selected genomic regions: targeted exome sequencing, comparative genome hybridization, and quantitative exon amplification. We screened a large cohort of 427 patients (139 USH1, 282 USH2, and six of undefined clinical subtype) from various European medical centers for mutations in all USH genes and the modifier gene. We identified a total of 421 different sequence variants predicted to be pathogenic, about half of which had not been previously reported. Remarkably, we detected large genomic rearrangements, most of which were novel and unique, in 9% of the patients. Thus, our strategy led to the identification of biallelic and monoallelic mutations in 92.7% and 5.8% of the USH patients, respectively. With an overall 98.5% mutation characterization rate, the diagnosis efficiency was substantially improved compared with previously reported methods.

  1. Inference of Causal Relationships between Biomarkers and Outcomes in High Dimensions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Felix Agakov

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available We describe a unified computational framework for learning causal dependencies between genotypes, biomarkers, and phenotypic outcomes from large-scale data. In contrast to previous studies, our framework allows for noisy measurements, hidden confounders, missing data, and pleiotropic effects of genotypes on outcomes. The method exploits the use of genotypes as “instrumental variables” to infer causal associations between phenotypic biomarkers and outcomes, without requiring the assumption that genotypic effects are mediated only through the observed biomarkers. The framework builds on sparse linear methods developed in statistics and machine learning and modified here for inferring structures of richer networks with latent variables. Where the biomarkers are gene transcripts, the method can be used for fine mapping of quantitative trait loci (QTLs detected in genetic linkage studies. To demonstrate our method, we examined effects of gene transcript levels in the liver on plasma HDL cholesterol levels in a sample of 260 mice from a heterogeneous stock.

  2. Instrumental variables I: instrumental variables exploit natural variation in nonexperimental data to estimate causal relationships.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rassen, Jeremy A; Brookhart, M Alan; Glynn, Robert J; Mittleman, Murray A; Schneeweiss, Sebastian

    2009-12-01

    The gold standard of study design for treatment evaluation is widely acknowledged to be the randomized controlled trial (RCT). Trials allow for the estimation of causal effect by randomly assigning participants either to an intervention or comparison group; through the assumption of "exchangeability" between groups, comparing the outcomes will yield an estimate of causal effect. In the many cases where RCTs are impractical or unethical, instrumental variable (IV) analysis offers a nonexperimental alternative based on many of the same principles. IV analysis relies on finding a naturally varying phenomenon, related to treatment but not to outcome except through the effect of treatment itself, and then using this phenomenon as a proxy for the confounded treatment variable. This article demonstrates how IV analysis arises from an analogous but potentially impossible RCT design, and outlines the assumptions necessary for valid estimation. It gives examples of instruments used in clinical epidemiology and concludes with an outline on estimation of effects.

  3. The causal role of fatigue in the stress-perceived health relationship: a MetroNet study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maghout-Juratli, Sham; Janisse, James; Schwartz, Kendra; Arnetz, Bengt B

    2010-01-01

    We conducted a cross-sectional survey of 4 primary care MetroNet centers in metropolitan Detroit. Our objective was to describe the causal role of fatigue in the relationship among stress, stress resiliency, and perceived health in primary care. Fatigue is a public health problem that has been linked to stress and poor health. The causal role of fatigue between stress and perceived health is unknown. Four hundred surveys were distributed to adult patients in 4 primary care centers in metropolitan Detroit between 2006 and 2007. Internal consistency reliabilities and principal factor analyses were calculated for the key psychological scales. Perceived health is the primary outcome. Path models were used to study the relationship among stress, fatigue, and perceived health. We also modeled the impact of select stress resiliency factors including sleep, recovery, and social support. Of the 400 distributed surveys, 315 (78.7%) had a response rate of 70% or more and were included in the analysis. Respondents were predominantly middle aged (median age, 43 years); female (58.7%); and African American (52.0%). The majority worked full time (56.5%); did not have a college degree (77.7%); and were not married (55.2%). Fatigue was reported by 59% of respondents, 42.7% of which was unexplained. The path model supported the causal role of fatigue between stress and perceived health. The positive effects of sleep, recovery, and social support on fatigue, stress, and perceived health were validated. Fatigue was common in this metropolitan primary care environment and completely mediated the relationship between stress and poor perceived health. Therefore, stress, when significant enough to cause fatigue, may lead to poor health.

  4. Revisiting the Granger Causality Relationship between Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in China: A Multi-Timescale Decomposition Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lei Jiang

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The past four decades have witnessed rapid growth in the rate of energy consumption in China. A great deal of energy consumption has led to two major issues. One is energy shortages and the other is environmental pollution caused by fossil fuel combustion. Since energy saving plays a substantial role in addressing both issues, it is of vital importance to study the intrinsic characteristics of energy consumption and its relationship with economic growth. The topic of the nexus between energy consumption and economic growth has been hotly debated for years. However, conflicting conclusions have been drawn. In this paper, we provide a novel insight into the characteristics of the growth rate of energy consumption in China from a multi-timescale perspective by means of adaptive time-frequency data analysis; namely, the ensemble empirical mode decomposition method, which is suitable for the analysis of non-linear time series. Decomposition led to four intrinsic mode function (IMF components and a trend component with different periods. Then, we repeated the same procedure for the growth rate of China’s GDP and obtained four similar IMF components and a trend component. In the second stage, we performed the Granger causality test. The results demonstrated that, in the short run, there was a bidirectional causality relationship between economic growth and energy consumption, and in the long run a unidirectional relationship running from economic growth to energy consumption.

  5. Significance of functional disease-causal/susceptible variants identified by whole-genome analyses for the understanding of human diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hitomi, Yuki; Tokunaga, Katsushi

    2017-01-01

    Human genome variation may cause differences in traits and disease risks. Disease-causal/susceptible genes and variants for both common and rare diseases can be detected by comprehensive whole-genome analyses, such as whole-genome sequencing (WGS), using next-generation sequencing (NGS) technology and genome-wide association studies (GWAS). Here, in addition to the application of an NGS as a whole-genome analysis method, we summarize approaches for the identification of functional disease-causal/susceptible variants from abundant genetic variants in the human genome and methods for evaluating their functional effects in human diseases, using an NGS and in silico and in vitro functional analyses. We also discuss the clinical applications of the functional disease causal/susceptible variants to personalized medicine.

  6. Fine-Scale Mapping at 9p22.2 Identifies Candidate Causal Variants That Modify Ovarian Cancer Risk in BRCA1 and BRCA2 Mutation Carriers.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena Vigorito

    Full Text Available Population-based genome wide association studies have identified a locus at 9p22.2 associated with ovarian cancer risk, which also modifies ovarian cancer risk in BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers. We conducted fine-scale mapping at 9p22.2 to identify potential causal variants in BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers. Genotype data were available for 15,252 (2,462 ovarian cancer cases BRCA1 and 8,211 (631 ovarian cancer cases BRCA2 mutation carriers. Following genotype imputation, ovarian cancer associations were assessed for 4,873 and 5,020 SNPs in BRCA1 and BRCA 2 mutation carriers respectively, within a retrospective cohort analytical framework. In BRCA1 mutation carriers one set of eight correlated candidate causal variants for ovarian cancer risk modification was identified (top SNP rs10124837, HR: 0.73, 95%CI: 0.68 to 0.79, p-value 2× 10-16. These variants were located up to 20 kb upstream of BNC2. In BRCA2 mutation carriers one region, up to 45 kb upstream of BNC2, and containing 100 correlated SNPs was identified as candidate causal (top SNP rs62543585, HR: 0.69, 95%CI: 0.59 to 0.80, p-value 1.0 × 10-6. The candidate causal in BRCA1 mutation carriers did not include the strongest associated variant at this locus in the general population. In sum, we identified a set of candidate causal variants in a region that encompasses the BNC2 transcription start site. The ovarian cancer association at 9p22.2 may be mediated by different variants in BRCA1 mutation carriers and in the general population. Thus, potentially different mechanisms may underlie ovarian cancer risk for mutation carriers and the general population.

  7. Causal relationship between the AHSG gene and BMD through fetuin-A and BMI: multiple mediation analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sritara, C; Thakkinstian, A; Ongphiphadhanakul, B; Chailurkit, L; Chanprasertyothin, S; Ratanachaiwong, W; Vathesatogkit, P; Sritara, P

    2014-05-01

    Using mediation analysis, a causal relationship between the AHSG gene and bone mineral density (BMD) through fetuin-A and body mass index (BMI) mediators was suggested. Fetuin-A, a multifunctional protein of hepatic origin, is associated with bone mineral density. It is unclear if this association is causal. This study aimed at clarification of this issue. A cross-sectional study was conducted among 1,741 healthy workers from the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT) cohort. The alpha-2-Heremans-Schmid glycoprotein (AHSG) rs2248690 gene was genotyped. Three mediation models were constructed using seemingly unrelated regression analysis. First, the ln[fetuin-A] group was regressed on the AHSG gene. Second, the BMI group was regressed on the AHSG gene and the ln[fetuin-A] group. Finally, the BMD model was constructed by fitting BMD on two mediators (ln[fetuin-A] and BMI) and the independent AHSG variable. All three analyses were adjusted for confounders. The prevalence of the minor T allele for the AHSG locus was 15.2%. The AHSG locus was highly related to serum fetuin-A levels (P Multiple mediation analyses showed that AHSG was significantly associated with BMD through the ln[fetuin-A] and BMI pathway, with beta coefficients of 0.0060 (95% CI 0.0038, 0.0083) and 0.0030 (95% CI 0.0020, 0.0045) at the total hip and lumbar spine, respectively. About 27.3 and 26.0% of total genetic effects on hip and spine BMD, respectively, were explained by the mediation effects of fetuin-A and BMI. Our study suggested evidence of a causal relationship between the AHSG gene and BMD through fetuin-A and BMI mediators.

  8. Genetic Evidence for Causal Relationships Between Maternal Obesity-Related Traits and Birth Weight.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tyrrell, Jessica; Richmond, Rebecca C; Palmer, Tom M; Feenstra, Bjarke; Rangarajan, Janani; Metrustry, Sarah; Cavadino, Alana; Paternoster, Lavinia; Armstrong, Loren L; De Silva, N Maneka G; Wood, Andrew R; Horikoshi, Momoko; Geller, Frank; Myhre, Ronny; Bradfield, Jonathan P; Kreiner-Møller, Eskil; Huikari, Ville; Painter, Jodie N; Hottenga, Jouke-Jan; Allard, Catherine; Berry, Diane J; Bouchard, Luigi; Das, Shikta; Evans, David M; Hakonarson, Hakon; Hayes, M Geoffrey; Heikkinen, Jani; Hofman, Albert; Knight, Bridget; Lind, Penelope A; McCarthy, Mark I; McMahon, George; Medland, Sarah E; Melbye, Mads; Morris, Andrew P; Nodzenski, Michael; Reichetzeder, Christoph; Ring, Susan M; Sebert, Sylvain; Sengpiel, Verena; Sørensen, Thorkild I A; Willemsen, Gonneke; de Geus, Eco J C; Martin, Nicholas G; Spector, Tim D; Power, Christine; Järvelin, Marjo-Riitta; Bisgaard, Hans; Grant, Struan F A; Nohr, Ellen A; Jaddoe, Vincent W; Jacobsson, Bo; Murray, Jeffrey C; Hocher, Berthold; Hattersley, Andrew T; Scholtens, Denise M; Davey Smith, George; Hivert, Marie-France; Felix, Janine F; Hyppönen, Elina; Lowe, William L; Frayling, Timothy M; Lawlor, Debbie A; Freathy, Rachel M

    2016-03-15

    Neonates born to overweight or obese women are larger and at higher risk of birth complications. Many maternal obesity-related traits are observationally associated with birth weight, but the causal nature of these associations is uncertain. To test for genetic evidence of causal associations of maternal body mass index (BMI) and related traits with birth weight. Mendelian randomization to test whether maternal BMI and obesity-related traits are potentially causally related to offspring birth weight. Data from 30,487 women in 18 studies were analyzed. Participants were of European ancestry from population- or community-based studies in Europe, North America, or Australia and were part of the Early Growth Genetics Consortium. Live, term, singleton offspring born between 1929 and 2013 were included. Genetic scores for BMI, fasting glucose level, type 2 diabetes, systolic blood pressure (SBP), triglyceride level, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) level, vitamin D status, and adiponectin level. Offspring birth weight from 18 studies. Among the 30,487 newborns the mean birth weight in the various cohorts ranged from 3325 g to 3679 g. The maternal genetic score for BMI was associated with a 2-g (95% CI, 0 to 3 g) higher offspring birth weight per maternal BMI-raising allele (P = .008). The maternal genetic scores for fasting glucose and SBP were also associated with birth weight with effect sizes of 8 g (95% CI, 6 to 10 g) per glucose-raising allele (P = 7 × 10(-14)) and -4 g (95% CI, -6 to -2 g) per SBP-raising allele (P = 1×10(-5)), respectively. A 1-SD ( ≈ 4 points) genetically higher maternal BMI was associated with a 55-g higher offspring birth weight (95% CI, 17 to 93 g). A 1-SD ( ≈ 7.2 mg/dL) genetically higher maternal fasting glucose concentration was associated with 114-g higher offspring birth weight (95% CI, 80 to 147 g). However, a 1-SD ( ≈ 10 mm Hg) genetically higher maternal SBP was associated with a 208-g

  9. Amodal causal capture in the tunnel effect.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bae, Gi Yeul; Flombaum, Jonathan I

    2011-01-01

    In addition to identifying individual objects in the world, the visual system must also characterize the relationships between objects, for instance when objects occlude one another or cause one another to move. Here we explored the relationship between perceived causality and occlusion. Can one perceive causality in an occluded location? In several experiments, observers judged whether a centrally presented event involved a single object passing behind an occluder, or one object causally launching another (out of view and behind the occluder). With no additional context, the centrally presented event was typically judged as a non-causal pass, even when the occluding and disoccluding objects were different colors--an illusion known as the 'tunnel effect' that results from spatiotemporal continuity. However, when a synchronized context event involved an unambiguous causal launch, participants perceived a causal launch behind the occluder. This percept of an occluded causal interaction could also be driven by grouping and synchrony cues in the absence of any explicitly causal interaction. These results reinforce the hypothesis that causality is an aspect of perception. It is among the interpretations of the world that are independently available to vision when resolving ambiguity, and that the visual system can 'fill in' amodally.

  10. Invited Commentary: Using Financial Credits as Instrumental Variables for Estimating the Causal Relationship Between Income and Health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pega, Frank

    2016-05-01

    Social epidemiologists are interested in determining the causal relationship between income and health. Natural experiments in which individuals or groups receive income randomly or quasi-randomly from financial credits (e.g., tax credits or cash transfers) are increasingly being analyzed using instrumental variable analysis. For example, in this issue of the Journal, Hamad and Rehkopf (Am J Epidemiol. 2016;183(9):775-784) used an in-work tax credit called the Earned Income Tax Credit as an instrument to estimate the association between income and child development. However, under certain conditions, the use of financial credits as instruments could violate 2 key instrumental variable analytic assumptions. First, some financial credits may directly influence health, for example, through increasing a psychological sense of welfare security. Second, financial credits and health may have several unmeasured common causes, such as politics, other social policies, and the motivation to maximize the credit. If epidemiologists pursue such instrumental variable analyses, using the amount of an unconditional, universal credit that an individual or group has received as the instrument may produce the most conceptually convincing and generalizable evidence. However, other natural income experiments (e.g., lottery winnings) and other methods that allow better adjustment for confounding might be more promising approaches for estimating the causal relationship between income and health. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  11. The housing market-bank credit relationship: Some thoughts on its causality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arestis Philip

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The dominance of the orthodox paradigm over the last decades prior to the “great recession” left no room for the notion of “endogenous money” in the development of economic theory. However, this alternative direction of the causality of demand for money-credit and economic activity has been present in the heterodox economic thought since the 1930s and should be reconsidered in the current situation. In this context, the numerous episodes of housing bubbles, which have been taking place since 2007, create the perfect “environment” to explore the notion of “dynamic monetized production economy”. Our theoretical framework is estimated econometrically by using a sample of 6 developed economies which spans from 1970 to 2011. The non-stationary “nature” of our data recommends the use of cointegration techniques (Søren Johansen 1995 in order to estimate our models.

  12. Causal Relationship Model of the Information and Communication Technology Skill Affect the Technology Acceptance Process in the 21ST Century for Undergraduate Students

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thanyatorn Amornkitpinyo

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study is to design a framework for a causal relationship model of the Information and Communication Technology skills that affect the Technology Acceptance Process (TAP for undergraduate students in the 21ST Century. This research uses correlational analysis. A consideration of the research methodology is divided into two sections. The first section involves a synthesis concept framework for process acceptance of the causal relationship model of the Information and Communication Technology skills that affect the Technology Acceptance Process for undergraduate students in the 21ST Century. The second section proposes the design concept framework of the model. The research findings are as follows: 1 The exogenous latent variables included in the causal relationship model of the Information and Communication Technology skills that affect the Technology Acceptance Process for undergraduate students in the 21ST Century are basic ICT skills and self-efficacy. 2 The mediating latent variables of the causal relationship model of the Information and Communication Technology skills that affect the Technology Acceptance Process for undergraduate students in the 21ST Century are from the TAM Model, these includes three components: 1 perceived usefulness, 2 perceived ease of use and 3 attitudes. 3 The outcome latent variable of the causal relationship model of the Information and Communication Technology skills that affect the Technology Acceptance Process for undergraduate students in the 21ST Century is behavioural intention.

  13. The Longitudinal Causal Directionality between Body Image Distress and Self-Esteem among Korean Adolescents: The Moderating Effect of Relationships with Parents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Woochul; Epstein, Norman B.

    2013-01-01

    This study examined the longitudinal relationship between self-esteem and body image distress, as well as the moderating effect of relationships with parents, among adolescents in Korea, using nationally representative prospective panel data. Regarding causal direction, the findings supported bi-directionality for girls, but for boys the…

  14. Fine-Scale Mapping at 9p22.2 Identifies Candidate Causal Variants That Modify Ovarian Cancer Risk in BRCA1 and BRCA2 Mutation Carriers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vigorito, Elena; Kuchenbaecker, Karoline B; Beesley, Jonathan

    2016-01-01

    Population-based genome wide association studies have identified a locus at 9p22.2 associated with ovarian cancer risk, which also modifies ovarian cancer risk in BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers. We conducted fine-scale mapping at 9p22.2 to identify potential causal variants in BRCA1 and BRCA2...... mutation carriers. Genotype data were available for 15,252 (2,462 ovarian cancer cases) BRCA1 and 8,211 (631 ovarian cancer cases) BRCA2 mutation carriers. Following genotype imputation, ovarian cancer associations were assessed for 4,873 and 5,020 SNPs in BRCA1 and BRCA 2 mutation carriers respectively...... of BNC2. In BRCA2 mutation carriers one region, up to 45 kb upstream of BNC2, and containing 100 correlated SNPs was identified as candidate causal (top SNP rs62543585, HR: 0.69, 95%CI: 0.59 to 0.80, p-value 1.0 × 10-6). The candidate causal in BRCA1 mutation carriers did not include the strongest...

  15. Using k-dependence causal forest to mine the most significant dependency relationships among clinical variables for thyroid disease diagnosis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    LiMin Wang

    Full Text Available Numerous data mining models have been proposed to construct computer-aided medical expert systems. Bayesian network classifiers (BNCs are more distinct and understandable than other models. To graphically describe the dependency relationships among clinical variables for thyroid disease diagnosis and ensure the rationality of the diagnosis results, the proposed k-dependence causal forest (KCF model generates a series of submodels in the framework of maximum spanning tree (MST and demonstrates stronger dependence representation. Friedman test on 12 UCI datasets shows that KCF has classification accuracy advantage over the other state-of-the-art BNCs, such as Naive Bayes, tree augmented Naive Bayes, and k-dependence Bayesian classifier. Our extensive experimental comparison on 4 medical datasets also proves the feasibility and effectiveness of KCF in terms of sensitivity and specificity.

  16. The causal relationship of business innovation training and development, and job satisfaction of SME manufacturing in Palembang

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Afriyadi Cahyadi

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this research is to explore causal relationship among business innova-tion, training and development, and job satisfaction of micro and small manufactur-ing enterprises managers in Palembang city South Sumatera. An explanatory study uses path analysis to explain quantitative data. Data were collected from 335 sample managers of the enterprises by distributing self-developed questionnaires. The method of considering quantity of sample is random sampling. The results show that innovations have an effect on training and development, and training and de-velopment has a significant effect on job satisfaction. On the other side, innovations have no effect on job satisfaction. Innovations include raw materials, production processes and products offered. Job satisfaction include feelings of pleasure and enjoy, feeling calm and not be concerned about, do not ignore the feelings of the faithful, and the feeling of belonging and defend jobs.

  17. Identifying HIV associated neurocognitive disorder using large-scale Granger causality analysis on resting-state functional MRI

    Science.gov (United States)

    DSouza, Adora M.; Abidin, Anas Z.; Leistritz, Lutz; Wismüller, Axel

    2017-02-01

    We investigate the applicability of large-scale Granger Causality (lsGC) for extracting a measure of multivariate information flow between pairs of regional brain activities from resting-state functional MRI (fMRI) and test the effectiveness of these measures for predicting a disease state. Such pairwise multivariate measures of interaction provide high-dimensional representations of connectivity profiles for each subject and are used in a machine learning task to distinguish between healthy controls and individuals presenting with symptoms of HIV Associated Neurocognitive Disorder (HAND). Cognitive impairment in several domains can occur as a result of HIV infection of the central nervous system. The current paradigm for assessing such impairment is through neuropsychological testing. With fMRI data analysis, we aim at non-invasively capturing differences in brain connectivity patterns between healthy subjects and subjects presenting with symptoms of HAND. To classify the extracted interaction patterns among brain regions, we use a prototype-based learning algorithm called Generalized Matrix Learning Vector Quantization (GMLVQ). Our approach to characterize connectivity using lsGC followed by GMLVQ for subsequent classification yields good prediction results with an accuracy of 87% and an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of up to 0.90. We obtain a statistically significant improvement (p<0.01) over a conventional Granger causality approach (accuracy = 0.76, AUC = 0.74). High accuracy and AUC values using our multivariate method to connectivity analysis suggests that our approach is able to better capture changes in interaction patterns between different brain regions when compared to conventional Granger causality analysis known from the literature.

  18. Birth weight and cognitive development in adolescence: causal relationship or social selection?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gorman, Bridget K

    2002-01-01

    Using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Adolescent Health (Add Health), I investigate the relationship between birth weight and cognitive development among adolescents aged 12-17. Initial OLS regression models reveal a significant, positive relationship between low birth weight and verbal ability. Controlling for demographic, socioeconomic, and other adolescent characteristics modifies, but does not eliminate, this relationship. Additional models that stratify the sample by parental education illustrate the greater importance of other family and adolescent characteristics for cognitive development in adolescence, and a diminished role of birth weight. In the final section of the paper, fixed effects models of non-twin full siblings indicate no significant association between birth weight and verbal ability, suggesting that traditional cross-sectional models overstate the influence of birth weight for cognitive development in adolescence.

  19. Timing of reproduction and fledging success in the coot Fulica atra : evidence for a causal relationship

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brinkhof, Martin W.G.; Cavé, Anton J.; Hage, Fred J.; Verhulst, Simon

    1993-01-01

    1. We investigated the relationship between hatching date and fledging success in the European coot (Fulica atra). 2. The production of fledglings per brood increased in the first half of the season and decreased in the second half, independent of clutch size or egg size. We tested experimentally

  20. No causal relationship between Yersinia enterocolitica infection and autoimmune thyroid disease: evidence from a prospective study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Effraimidis, G.; Tijssen, J. G. P.; Strieder, T. G. A.; Wiersinga, W. M.

    2011-01-01

    P>The objective of this study was to evaluate prospectively the relationship between Yersinia enterocolitica (YE) infection and the development of overt autoimmune hypo- or hyperthyroidism (study A) and the de novo occurrence of thyroid antibodies (study B). This was a prospective cohort study of

  1. Identifying TF-MiRNA Regulatory Relationships Using Multiple Features.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mingyu Shao

    Full Text Available MicroRNAs are known to play important roles in the transcriptional and post-transcriptional regulation of gene expression. While intensive research has been conducted to identify miRNAs and their target genes in various genomes, there is only limited knowledge about how microRNAs are regulated. In this study, we construct a pipeline that can infer the regulatory relationships between transcription factors and microRNAs from ChIP-Seq data with high confidence. In particular, after identifying candidate peaks from ChIP-Seq data, we formulate the inference as a PU learning (learning from only positive and unlabeled examples problem. Multiple features including the statistical significance of the peaks, the location of the peaks, the transcription factor binding site motifs, and the evolutionary conservation are derived from peaks for training and prediction. To further improve the accuracy of our inference, we also apply a mean reciprocal rank (MRR-based method to the candidate peaks. We apply our pipeline to infer TF-miRNA regulatory relationships in mouse embryonic stem cells. The experimental results show that our approach provides very specific findings of TF-miRNA regulatory relationships.

  2. A causal relationship between face-patch activity and face-detection behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadagopan, Srivatsun; Zarco, Wilbert; Freiwald, Winrich A

    2017-04-04

    The primate brain contains distinct areas densely populated by face-selective neurons. One of these, face-patch ML, contains neurons selective for contrast relationships between face parts. Such contrast-relationships can serve as powerful heuristics for face detection. However, it is unknown whether neurons with such selectivity actually support face-detection behavior. Here, we devised a naturalistic face-detection task and combined it with fMRI-guided pharmacological inactivation of ML to test whether ML is of critical importance for real-world face detection. We found that inactivation of ML impairs face detection. The effect was anatomically specific, as inactivation of areas outside ML did not affect face detection, and it was categorically specific, as inactivation of ML impaired face detection while sparing body and object detection. These results establish that ML function is crucial for detection of faces in natural scenes, performing a critical first step on which other face processing operations can build.

  3. Assessing the Causal Relationship of Maternal Height on Birth Size and Gestational Age at Birth: A Mendelian Randomization Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ge; Bacelis, Jonas; Lengyel, Candice; Teramo, Kari; Hallman, Mikko; Helgeland, Øyvind; Johansson, Stefan; Myhre, Ronny; Sengpiel, Verena; Njølstad, Pål Rasmus; Jacobsson, Bo; Muglia, Louis

    2015-01-01

    Background Observational epidemiological studies indicate that maternal height is associated with gestational age at birth and fetal growth measures (i.e., shorter mothers deliver infants at earlier gestational ages with lower birth weight and birth length). Different mechanisms have been postulated to explain these associations. This study aimed to investigate the casual relationships behind the strong association of maternal height with fetal growth measures (i.e., birth length and birth weight) and gestational age by a Mendelian randomization approach. Methods and Findings We conducted a Mendelian randomization analysis using phenotype and genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) data of 3,485 mother/infant pairs from birth cohorts collected from three Nordic countries (Finland, Denmark, and Norway). We constructed a genetic score based on 697 SNPs known to be associated with adult height to index maternal height. To avoid confounding due to genetic sharing between mother and infant, we inferred parental transmission of the height-associated SNPs and utilized the haplotype genetic score derived from nontransmitted alleles as a valid genetic instrument for maternal height. In observational analysis, maternal height was significantly associated with birth length (p = 6.31 × 10−9), birth weight (p = 2.19 × 10−15), and gestational age (p = 1.51 × 10−7). Our parental-specific haplotype score association analysis revealed that birth length and birth weight were significantly associated with the maternal transmitted haplotype score as well as the paternal transmitted haplotype score. Their association with the maternal nontransmitted haplotype score was far less significant, indicating a major fetal genetic influence on these fetal growth measures. In contrast, gestational age was significantly associated with the nontransmitted haplotype score (p = 0.0424) and demonstrated a significant (p = 0.0234) causal effect of every 1 cm increase in maternal

  4. Causality analysis of leading singular value decomposition modes identifies rotor as the dominant driving normal mode in fibrillation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biton, Yaacov; Rabinovitch, Avinoam; Braunstein, Doron; Aviram, Ira; Campbell, Katherine; Mironov, Sergey; Herron, Todd; Jalife, José; Berenfeld, Omer

    2018-01-01

    Cardiac fibrillation is a major clinical and societal burden. Rotors may drive fibrillation in many cases, but their role and patterns are often masked by complex propagation. We used Singular Value Decomposition (SVD), which ranks patterns of activation hierarchically, together with Wiener-Granger causality analysis (WGCA), which analyses direction of information among observations, to investigate the role of rotors in cardiac fibrillation. We hypothesized that combining SVD analysis with WGCA should reveal whether rotor activity is the dominant driving force of fibrillation even in cases of high complexity. Optical mapping experiments were conducted in neonatal rat cardiomyocyte monolayers (diameter, 35 mm), which were genetically modified to overexpress the delayed rectifier K+ channel IKr only in one half of the monolayer. Such monolayers have been shown previously to sustain fast rotors confined to the IKr overexpressing half and driving fibrillatory-like activity in the other half. SVD analysis of the optical mapping movies revealed a hierarchical pattern in which the primary modes corresponded to rotor activity in the IKr overexpressing region and the secondary modes corresponded to fibrillatory activity elsewhere. We then applied WGCA to evaluate the directionality of influence between modes in the entire monolayer using clear and noisy movies of activity. We demonstrated that the rotor modes influence the secondary fibrillatory modes, but influence was detected also in the opposite direction. To more specifically delineate the role of the rotor in fibrillation, we decomposed separately the respective SVD modes of the rotor and fibrillatory domains. In this case, WGCA yielded more information from the rotor to the fibrillatory domains than in the opposite direction. In conclusion, SVD analysis reveals that rotors can be the dominant modes of an experimental model of fibrillation. Wiener-Granger causality on modes of the rotor domains confirms their

  5. Do material, psychosocial and behavioural factors mediate the relationship between disability acquisition and mental health? A sequential causal mediation analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aitken, Zoe; Simpson, Julie Anne; Gurrin, Lyle; Bentley, Rebecca; Kavanagh, Anne Marie

    2018-01-29

    There is evidence of a causal relationship between disability acquisition and poor mental health; however, the mechanism by which disability affects mental health is poorly understood. This gap in understanding limits the development of effective interventions to improve the mental health of people with disabilities. We used four waves of data from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia Survey (2011-14) to compare self-reported mental health between individuals who acquired any disability (n=387) and those who remained disability-free (n=7936). We tested three possible pathways from disability acquisition to mental health, examining the effect of material, psychosocial and behavioural mediators. The effect was partitioned into natural direct and indirect effects through the mediators using a sequential causal mediation analysis approach. Multiple imputation using chained equations was used to assess the impact of missing data. Disability acquisition was estimated to cause a five-point decline in mental health [estimated mean difference: -5.3, 95% confidence interval (CI) -6.8, -3.7]. The indirect effect through material factors was estimated to be a 1.7-point difference (-1.7, 95% CI -2.8, -0.6), explaining 32% of the total effect, with a negligible proportion of the effect explained by the addition of psychosocial characteristics (material and psychosocial: -1.7, 95% CI -3.0, -0.5) and a further 5% by behavioural factors (material-psychosocial-behavioural: -2.0, 95% CI -3.4, -0.6). The finding that the effect of disability acquisition on mental health operates predominantly through material rather than psychosocial and behavioural factors has important implications. The results highlight the need for better social protection, including income support, employment and education opportunities, and affordable housing for people who acquire a disability. © The Author(s) 2018; all rights reserved. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the

  6. [Causal analysis approaches in epidemiology].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dumas, O; Siroux, V; Le Moual, N; Varraso, R

    2014-02-01

    Epidemiological research is mostly based on observational studies. Whether such studies can provide evidence of causation remains discussed. Several causal analysis methods have been developed in epidemiology. This paper aims at presenting an overview of these methods: graphical models, path analysis and its extensions, and models based on the counterfactual approach, with a special emphasis on marginal structural models. Graphical approaches have been developed to allow synthetic representations of supposed causal relationships in a given problem. They serve as qualitative support in the study of causal relationships. The sufficient-component cause model has been developed to deal with the issue of multicausality raised by the emergence of chronic multifactorial diseases. Directed acyclic graphs are mostly used as a visual tool to identify possible confounding sources in a study. Structural equations models, the main extension of path analysis, combine a system of equations and a path diagram, representing a set of possible causal relationships. They allow quantifying direct and indirect effects in a general model in which several relationships can be tested simultaneously. Dynamic path analysis further takes into account the role of time. The counterfactual approach defines causality by comparing the observed event and the counterfactual event (the event that would have been observed if, contrary to the fact, the subject had received a different exposure than the one he actually received). This theoretical approach has shown limits of traditional methods to address some causality questions. In particular, in longitudinal studies, when there is time-varying confounding, classical methods (regressions) may be biased. Marginal structural models have been developed to address this issue. In conclusion, "causal models", though they were developed partly independently, are based on equivalent logical foundations. A crucial step in the application of these models is the

  7. A causal relationship between cough and gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) has been established: a pro/con debate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kahrilas, Peter J; Smith, Jaclyn A; Dicpinigaitis, Peter V

    2014-02-01

    Along with upper airway cough syndrome (formerly, postnasal drip syndrome) and eosinophilic airway inflammation (asthma, nonasthmatic eosinophilic bronchitis), gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) is generally considered among the most common etiologies of chronic cough. Indeed, cough management guidelines published by numerous respiratory societies worldwide recommend evaluation and treatment of GERD as an integral component of the diagnostic/therapeutic algorithm for the management of chronic cough. However, a significant number of patients with chronic cough presumed due to GERD do not report improvement despite aggressive acid-suppressive therapy. Some of these refractory cases may be due to the recently appreciated entity of nonacid or weakly acidic reflux. Further contributing to the controversy are recent studies that demonstrate that patients with chronic cough do not have excessive reflux events relative to healthy volunteers. Although a temporal relationship between cough and reflux events has been suggested by studies utilizing impedance-pH monitoring of reflux events and objective cough recording, consensus is lacking in terms of whether this temporal relationship proves a causal link between reflux and cough. The fourth American Cough Conference (New York, June 2013) provided an ideal forum for the debate of this issue between two internationally recognized experts in the field of reflux and chronic cough.

  8. Diagram-based Analysis of Causal Systems (DACS): elucidating inter-relationships between determinants of acute lower respiratory infections among children in sub-Saharan Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rehfuess, Eva A; Best, Nicky; Briggs, David J; Joffe, Mike

    2013-12-06

    Effective interventions require evidence on how individual causal pathways jointly determine disease. Based on the concept of systems epidemiology, this paper develops Diagram-based Analysis of Causal Systems (DACS) as an approach to analyze complex systems, and applies it by examining the contributions of proximal and distal determinants of childhood acute lower respiratory infections (ALRI) in sub-Saharan Africa. Diagram-based Analysis of Causal Systems combines the use of causal diagrams with multiple routinely available data sources, using a variety of statistical techniques. In a step-by-step process, the causal diagram evolves from conceptual based on a priori knowledge and assumptions, through operational informed by data availability which then undergoes empirical testing, to integrated which synthesizes information from multiple datasets. In our application, we apply different regression techniques to Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) datasets for Benin, Ethiopia, Kenya and Namibia and a pooled World Health Survey (WHS) dataset for sixteen African countries. Explicit strategies are employed to make decisions transparent about the inclusion/omission of arrows, the sign and strength of the relationships and homogeneity/heterogeneity across settings.Findings about the current state of evidence on the complex web of socio-economic, environmental, behavioral and healthcare factors influencing childhood ALRI, based on DHS and WHS data, are summarized in an integrated causal diagram. Notably, solid fuel use is structured by socio-economic factors and increases the risk of childhood ALRI mortality. Diagram-based Analysis of Causal Systems is a means of organizing the current state of knowledge about a specific area of research, and a framework for integrating statistical analyses across a whole system. This partly a priori approach is explicit about causal assumptions guiding the analysis and about researcher judgment, and wrong assumptions can be reversed

  9. Structure and Strength in Causal Induction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffiths, Thomas L.; Tenenbaum, Joshua B.

    2005-01-01

    We present a framework for the rational analysis of elemental causal induction--learning about the existence of a relationship between a single cause and effect--based upon causal graphical models. This framework makes precise the distinction between causal structure and causal strength: the difference between asking whether a causal relationship…

  10. The Relationships between Self-Regulated Learning Skills, Causal Attributions and Academic Success of Trainee Teachers Preparing to Teach Gifted Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leana-Tascilar, Marilena Z.

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this research is to examine the self-regulated learning skills and causal attributions of trainee teachers preparing to teach gifted pupils, and also to study the predictive relationships between these skills and attributions, on one hand, and academic success, on the other hand. The research was conducted on 123 students attending…

  11. Determining the causal relationships among balanced scorecard perspectives on school safety performance: case of Saudi Arabia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alolah, Turki; Stewart, Rodney A; Panuwatwanich, Kriengsak; Mohamed, Sherif

    2014-07-01

    In the public schools of many developing countries, numerous accidents and incidents occur because of poor safety regulations and management systems. To improve the educational environment in Saudi Arabia, the Ministry of Education seeks novel approaches to measure school safety performance in order to decrease incidents and accidents. The main objective of this research was to develop a systematic approach for measuring Saudi school safety performance using the balanced scorecard framework philosophy. The evolved third generation balanced scorecard framework is considered to be a suitable and robust framework that captures the system-wide leading and lagging indicators of business performance. The balanced scorecard architecture is ideal for adaptation to complex areas such as safety management where a holistic system evaluation is more effective than traditional compartmentalised approaches. In developing the safety performance balanced scorecard for Saudi schools, the conceptual framework was first developed and peer-reviewed by eighteen Saudi education experts. Next, 200 participants, including teachers, school executives, and Ministry of Education officers, were recruited to rate both the importance and the performance of 79 measurement items used in the framework. Exploratory factor analysis, followed by the confirmatory partial least squares method, was then conducted in order to operationalise the safety performance balanced scorecard, which encapsulates the following five salient perspectives: safety management and leadership; safety learning and training; safety policy, procedures and processes; workforce safety culture; and safety performance. Partial least squares based structural equation modelling was then conducted to reveal five significant relationships between perspectives, namely, safety management and leadership had a significant effect on safety learning and training and safety policy, procedures and processes, both safety learning and training

  12. Analogy in causal inference: rethinking Austin Bradford Hill's neglected consideration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weed, Douglas L

    2018-05-01

    The purpose of this article was to rethink and resurrect Austin Bradford Hill's "criterion" of analogy as an important consideration in causal inference. In epidemiology today, analogy is either completely ignored (e.g., in many textbooks), or equated with biologic plausibility or coherence, or aligned with the scientist's imagination. None of these examples, however, captures Hill's description of analogy. His words suggest that there may be something gained by contrasting two bodies of evidence, one from an established causal relationship, the other not. Coupled with developments in the methods of systematic assessments of evidence-including but not limited to meta-analysis-analogy can be restructured as a key component in causal inference. This new approach will require that a collection-a library-of known cases of causal inference (i.e., bodies of evidence involving established causal relationships) be developed. This library would likely include causal assessments by organizations such as the International Agency for Research on Cancer, the National Toxicology Program, and the United States Environmental Protection Agency. In addition, a process for describing key features of a causal relationship would need to be developed along with what will be considered paradigm cases of causation. Finally, it will be important to develop ways to objectively compare a "new" body of evidence with the relevant paradigm case of causation. Analogy, along with all other existing methods and causal considerations, may improve our ability to identify causal relationships. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. The Job Satisfaction-Life Satisfaction Relationship Revisited: Using the Lewbel Estimation Technique to Estimate Causal Effects Using Cross-Sectional Data

    OpenAIRE

    Vinod Mishra; Ingrid Nielsen; Russell Smyth; Alex Newman

    2014-01-01

    This paper uses a novel identification strategy proposed by Lewbel (2012, J. Bus. Econ. Stat.) to illustrate how causation between job satisfaction and life satisfaction can be established with cross-sectional data. In addition to examining the relationship between composite job satisfaction and life satisfaction, we consider the relationship between life satisfaction and different facets of job satisfaction. We find evidence of bidirectional causality between job satisfaction and life satisf...

  14. Safety culture: analysis of the causal relationships between its key dimensions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernández-Muñiz, Beatriz; Montes-Peón, José Manuel; Vázquez-Ordás, Camilo José

    2007-01-01

    Several fields are showing increasing interest in safety culture as a means of reducing accidents in the workplace. The literature shows that safety culture is a multidimensional concept. However, considerable confusion surrounds this concept, about which little consensus has been reached. This study proposes a model for a positive safety culture and tests this on a sample of 455 Spanish companies, using the structural equation modeling statistical technique. Results show the important role of managers in the promotion of employees' safe behavior, both directly, through their attitudes and behaviors, and indirectly, by developing a safety management system. This paper identifies the key dimensions of safety culture. In addition, a measurement scale for the safety management system is validated. This will assist organizations in defining areas where they need to progress if they wish to improve their safety. Also, we stress that managers need to be wholly committed to and personally involved in safety activities, thereby conveying the importance the firm attaches to these issues.

  15. Could Plasmodium vivax malaria trigger malnutrition? Revisiting the Bradford Hill criteria to assess a causal relationship between two neglected problems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wuelton Marcelo Monteiro

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract: The benign characteristics formerly attributed to Plasmodium vivax infections have recently changed owing to the increasing number of reports of severe vivax malaria resulting in a broad spectrum of clinical complications, probably including undernutrition. Causal inference is a complex process, and arriving at a tentative inference of the causal or non-causal nature of an association is a subjective process limited by the existing evidence. Applying classical epidemiology principles, such as the Bradford Hill criteria, may help foster an understanding of causality and lead to appropriate interventions being proposed that may improve quality of life and decrease morbidity in neglected populations. Here, we examined these criteria in the context of the available data suggesting that vivax malaria may substantially contribute to childhood malnutrition. We found the data supported a role for P. vivax in the etiology of undernutrition in endemic areas. Thus, the application of modern causal inference tools, in future studies, may be useful in determining causation.

  16. Delayed splenic rupture: dating the sub-capsular hemorrhage as a useful task to evaluate causal relationships with trauma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riezzo, Irene; Di Battista, Benedetta; De Salvia, Alessandra; Cantatore, Santina; Neri, Margherita; Pomara, Cristoforo; Turillazzi, Emanuela; Fineschi, Vittorio

    2014-01-01

    The aim of the paper was to perform a chronological assessment of the phenomenon of delayed rupture of the spleen, to assess the phenomenological order about the sub-capsular hematoma transformation to determine the causal relationship with trauma as hypothetical cause of death. 80 cases of blunt trauma with splenic capsular hematoma and subsequent rupture of the spleen were evaluated: 38 had an acute rupture of the spleen, 42 presented a break in days or weeks after the traumatic injury. Time between the traumatic event and delayed rupture of the spleen is within a range of time from one day to more than one month. Data recorded included age, sex, type of trauma, injury severity score, grade of splenic injury, associated intra-abdominal injuries, pathologic specimen evaluation. Immunohistochemical investigation of perisplenic hematoma or laceration was performed utilizing polyclonal antibodies anti-fibrinogen, CD61 and CD68, and showed structural chronological differences of sub-capsular hematoma. Expression of modification and organization of erythrocytes, fibrinogen, platelets and macrophages provides an informative picture of the progression of reparative phenomena associated with sub-capsular hematoma and subsequent delayed splenic rupture. Sub-capsular splenic hematoma dating, which we divided into 4 phases, is representing a task in both clinical practice and forensic pathology. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. IQ and schizophrenia in a Swedish national sample: their causal relationship and the interaction of IQ with genetic risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kendler, Kenneth S; Ohlsson, Henrik; Sundquist, Jan; Sundquist, Kristina

    2015-03-01

    The authors sought to clarify the relationship between IQ and subsequent risk for schizophrenia. IQ was assessed at ages 18-20 in 1,204,983 Swedish males born between 1951 and 1975. Schizophrenia was assessed by hospital diagnosis through 2010. Cox proportional hazards models were used to investigate future risk for schizophrenia in individuals as a function of their IQ score, and then stratified models using pairs of relatives were used to adjust for familial cluster. Finally, regression models were used to examine the interaction between IQ and genetic liability on risk for schizophrenia. IQ had a monotonic relationship with schizophrenia risk across the IQ range, with a mean increase in risk of 3.8% per 1-point decrease in IQ; this association was stronger in the lower than the higher IQ range. Co-relative control analyses showed a similar association between IQ and schizophrenia in the general population and in cousin, half-sibling, and full-sibling pairs. A robust interaction was seen between genetic liability to schizophrenia and IQ in predicting schizophrenia risk. Genetic susceptibility for schizophrenia had a much stronger impact on risk of illness for those with low than high intelligence. The IQ-genetic liability interaction arose largely from IQ differences between close relatives. IQ assessed in late adolescence is a robust risk factor for subsequent onset of schizophrenia. This association is not the result of a declining IQ associated with insidious onset. In this large, representative sample, we found no evidence for a link between genius and schizophrenia. Co-relative control analyses showed that the association between lower IQ and schizophrenia is not the result of shared familial risk factors and may be causal. The strongest effect was seen with IQ differences within families. High intelligence substantially attenuates the impact of genetic liability on the risk for schizophrenia.

  18. Causal universe

    CERN Document Server

    Ellis, George FR; Pabjan, Tadeusz

    2013-01-01

    Written by philosophers, cosmologists, and physicists, this collection of essays deals with causality, which is a core issue for both science and philosophy. Readers will learn about different types of causality in complex systems and about new perspectives on this issue based on physical and cosmological considerations. In addition, the book includes essays pertaining to the problem of causality in ancient Greek philosophy, and to the problem of God's relation to the causal structures of nature viewed in the light of contemporary physics and cosmology.

  19. Understanding a Nonlinear Causal Relationship Between Rewards and Physicians’ Contributions in Online Health Care Communities: Longitudinal Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-01-01

    Background The online health care community is not just a place for the public to share physician reviews or medical knowledge, but also a physician-patient communication platform. The medical resources of developing countries are relatively inadequate, and the online health care community is a potential solution to alleviate the phenomenon of long hospital queues and the lack of medical resources in rural areas. However, the success of the online health care community depends on online contributions by physicians. Objective The aim of this study is to examine the effect of incentive mechanisms on physician’s online contribution behavior in the online health community. We addressed the following questions: (1) from which specialty area are physicians more likely to participate in online health care community activities, (2) what are the factors affecting physician online contributions, and (3) do incentive mechanisms, including psychological and material rewards, result in differences of physician online contributions? Methods We designed a longitudinal study involving a data sample in three waves. All data were collected from the Good Doctor website, which is the largest online health care community in China. We first used descriptive statistics to investigate the physician online contribution behavior in its entirety. Then multiple linear and quadratic regression models were applied to verify the causal relationship between rewards and physician online contribution. Results Our sample included 40,300 physicians from 3607 different hospitals, 10 different major specialty areas, and 31 different provinces or municipalities. Based on the multiple quadratic regression model, we found that the coefficients of the control variables, past physician online contributions, doctor review rating, clinic title, hospital level, and city level, were .415, .189, –.099, –.106, and –.143, respectively. For the psychological (or material) rewards, the standardized

  20. Understanding a Nonlinear Causal Relationship Between Rewards and Physicians' Contributions in Online Health Care Communities: Longitudinal Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jying-Nan; Chiu, Ya-Ling; Yu, Haiyan; Hsu, Yuan-Teng

    2017-12-21

    The online health care community is not just a place for the public to share physician reviews or medical knowledge, but also a physician-patient communication platform. The medical resources of developing countries are relatively inadequate, and the online health care community is a potential solution to alleviate the phenomenon of long hospital queues and the lack of medical resources in rural areas. However, the success of the online health care community depends on online contributions by physicians. The aim of this study is to examine the effect of incentive mechanisms on physician's online contribution behavior in the online health community. We addressed the following questions: (1) from which specialty area are physicians more likely to participate in online health care community activities, (2) what are the factors affecting physician online contributions, and (3) do incentive mechanisms, including psychological and material rewards, result in differences of physician online contributions? We designed a longitudinal study involving a data sample in three waves. All data were collected from the Good Doctor website, which is the largest online health care community in China. We first used descriptive statistics to investigate the physician online contribution behavior in its entirety. Then multiple linear and quadratic regression models were applied to verify the causal relationship between rewards and physician online contribution. Our sample included 40,300 physicians from 3607 different hospitals, 10 different major specialty areas, and 31 different provinces or municipalities. Based on the multiple quadratic regression model, we found that the coefficients of the control variables, past physician online contributions, doctor review rating, clinic title, hospital level, and city level, were .415, .189, -.099, -.106, and -.143, respectively. For the psychological (or material) rewards, the standardized coefficient of the main effect was 0.261 (or 0

  1. Causal and causally separable processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oreshkov, Ognyan; Giarmatzi, Christina

    2016-09-01

    The idea that events are equipped with a partial causal order is central to our understanding of physics in the tested regimes: given two pointlike events A and B, either A is in the causal past of B, B is in the causal past of A, or A and B are space-like separated. Operationally, the meaning of these order relations corresponds to constraints on the possible correlations between experiments performed in the vicinities of the respective events: if A is in the causal past of B, an experimenter at A could signal to an experimenter at B but not the other way around, while if A and B are space-like separated, no signaling is possible in either direction. In the context of a concrete physical theory, the correlations compatible with a given causal configuration may obey further constraints. For instance, space-like correlations in quantum mechanics arise from local measurements on joint quantum states, while time-like correlations are established via quantum channels. Similarly to other variables, however, the causal order of a set of events could be random, and little is understood about the constraints that causality implies in this case. A main difficulty concerns the fact that the order of events can now generally depend on the operations performed at the locations of these events, since, for instance, an operation at A could influence the order in which B and C occur in A’s future. So far, no formal theory of causality compatible with such dynamical causal order has been developed. Apart from being of fundamental interest in the context of inferring causal relations, such a theory is imperative for understanding recent suggestions that the causal order of events in quantum mechanics can be indefinite. Here, we develop such a theory in the general multipartite case. Starting from a background-independent definition of causality, we derive an iteratively formulated canonical decomposition of multipartite causal correlations. For a fixed number of settings and

  2. Causal and causally separable processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oreshkov, Ognyan; Giarmatzi, Christina

    2016-01-01

    The idea that events are equipped with a partial causal order is central to our understanding of physics in the tested regimes: given two pointlike events A and B , either A is in the causal past of B , B is in the causal past of A , or A and B are space-like separated. Operationally, the meaning of these order relations corresponds to constraints on the possible correlations between experiments performed in the vicinities of the respective events: if A is in the causal past of B , an experimenter at A could signal to an experimenter at B but not the other way around, while if A and B are space-like separated, no signaling is possible in either direction. In the context of a concrete physical theory, the correlations compatible with a given causal configuration may obey further constraints. For instance, space-like correlations in quantum mechanics arise from local measurements on joint quantum states, while time-like correlations are established via quantum channels. Similarly to other variables, however, the causal order of a set of events could be random, and little is understood about the constraints that causality implies in this case. A main difficulty concerns the fact that the order of events can now generally depend on the operations performed at the locations of these events, since, for instance, an operation at A could influence the order in which B and C occur in A ’s future. So far, no formal theory of causality compatible with such dynamical causal order has been developed. Apart from being of fundamental interest in the context of inferring causal relations, such a theory is imperative for understanding recent suggestions that the causal order of events in quantum mechanics can be indefinite. Here, we develop such a theory in the general multipartite case. Starting from a background-independent definition of causality, we derive an iteratively formulated canonical decomposition of multipartite causal correlations. For a fixed number of settings and

  3. Exploring the relationship between child physical abuse and adult dating violence using a causal inference approach in an emerging adult population in South Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jennings, Wesley G; Park, MiRang; Richards, Tara N; Tomsich, Elizabeth; Gover, Angela; Powers, Ráchael A

    2014-12-01

    Child maltreatment is one of the most commonly examined risk factors for violence in dating relationships. Often referred to as the intergenerational transmission of violence or cycle of violence, a fair amount of research suggests that experiencing abuse during childhood significantly increases the likelihood of involvement in violent relationships later, but these conclusions are primarily based on correlational research designs. Furthermore, the majority of research linking childhood maltreatment and dating violence has focused on samples of young people from the United States. Considering these limitations, the current study uses a rigorous, propensity score matching approach to estimate the causal effect of experiencing child physical abuse on adult dating violence among a large sample of South Korean emerging adults. Results indicate that the link between child physical abuse and adult dating violence is spurious rather than causal. Study limitations and implications are discussed. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. A FRET-based real-time PCR assay to identify the main causal agents of New World tegumentary leishmaniasis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pablo Tsukayama

    Full Text Available In South America, various species of Leishmania are endemic and cause New World tegumentary leishmaniasis (NWTL. The correct identification of these species is critical for adequate clinical management and surveillance activities. We developed a real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR assay and evaluated its diagnostic performance using 64 archived parasite isolates and 192 prospectively identified samples collected from individuals with suspected leishmaniasis enrolled at two reference clinics in Lima, Peru. The real-time PCR assay was able to detect a single parasite and provided unambiguous melting peaks for five Leishmania species of the Viannia subgenus that are highly prevalent in South America: L. (V. braziliensis, L. (V. panamensis, L. (V. guyanensis, L. (V. peruviana and L. (V. lainsoni. Using kinetoplastid DNA-based PCR as a gold standard, the real-time PCR had sensitivity and specificity values of 92% and 77%, respectively, which were significantly higher than those of conventional tests such as microscopy, culture and the leishmanin skin test (LST. In addition, the real-time PCR identified 147 different clinical samples at the species level, providing an overall agreement of 100% when compared to multilocus sequence typing (MLST data performed on a subset of these samples. Furthermore, the real-time PCR was three times faster and five times less expensive when compared to PCR - MLST for species identification from clinical specimens. In summary, this new assay represents a cost-effective and reliable alternative for the identification of the main species causing NWTL in South America.

  5. Energy consumption and economic growth: A causality analysis for Greece

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tsani, Stela Z.

    2010-01-01

    This paper investigates the causal relationship between aggregated and disaggregated levels of energy consumption and economic growth for Greece for the period 1960-2006 through the application of a later development in the methodology of time series proposed by Toda and Yamamoto (1995). At aggregated levels of energy consumption empirical findings suggest the presence of a uni-directional causal relationship running from total energy consumption to real GDP. At disaggregated levels empirical evidence suggests that there is a bi-directional causal relationship between industrial and residential energy consumption to real GDP but this is not the case for the transport energy consumption with causal relationship being identified in neither direction. The importance of these findings lies on their policy implications and their adoption on structural policies affecting energy consumption in Greece suggesting that in order to address energy import dependence and environmental concerns without hindering economic growth emphasis should be put on the demand side and energy efficiency improvements.

  6. Causal relationship between obesity and vitamin D status: bi-directional Mendelian randomization analysis of multiple cohorts.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karani S Vimaleswaran

    Full Text Available Obesity is associated with vitamin D deficiency, and both are areas of active public health concern. We explored the causality and direction of the relationship between body mass index (BMI and 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OHD] using genetic markers as instrumental variables (IVs in bi-directional Mendelian randomization (MR analysis.We used information from 21 adult cohorts (up to 42,024 participants with 12 BMI-related SNPs (combined in an allelic score to produce an instrument for BMI and four SNPs associated with 25(OHD (combined in two allelic scores, separately for genes encoding its synthesis or metabolism as an instrument for vitamin D. Regression estimates for the IVs (allele scores were generated within-study and pooled by meta-analysis to generate summary effects. Associations between vitamin D scores and BMI were confirmed in the Genetic Investigation of Anthropometric Traits (GIANT consortium (n = 123,864. Each 1 kg/m(2 higher BMI was associated with 1.15% lower 25(OHD (p = 6.52×10⁻²⁷. The BMI allele score was associated both with BMI (p = 6.30×10⁻⁶² and 25(OHD (-0.06% [95% CI -0.10 to -0.02], p = 0.004 in the cohorts that underwent meta-analysis. The two vitamin D allele scores were strongly associated with 25(OHD (p≤8.07×10⁻⁵⁷ for both scores but not with BMI (synthesis score, p = 0.88; metabolism score, p = 0.08 in the meta-analysis. A 10% higher genetically instrumented BMI was associated with 4.2% lower 25(OHD concentrations (IV ratio: -4.2 [95% CI -7.1 to -1.3], p = 0.005. No association was seen for genetically instrumented 25(OHD with BMI, a finding that was confirmed using data from the GIANT consortium (p≥0.57 for both vitamin D scores.On the basis of a bi-directional genetic approach that limits confounding, our study suggests that a higher BMI leads to lower 25(OHD, while any effects of lower 25(OHD increasing BMI are likely to be small. Population level interventions to

  7. Causality discovery technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, M.; Ertl, T.; Jirotka, M.; Trefethen, A.; Schmidt, A.; Coecke, B.; Bañares-Alcántara, R.

    2012-11-01

    Causality is the fabric of our dynamic world. We all make frequent attempts to reason causation relationships of everyday events (e.g., what was the cause of my headache, or what has upset Alice?). We attempt to manage causality all the time through planning and scheduling. The greatest scientific discoveries are usually about causality (e.g., Newton found the cause for an apple to fall, and Darwin discovered natural selection). Meanwhile, we continue to seek a comprehensive understanding about the causes of numerous complex phenomena, such as social divisions, economic crisis, global warming, home-grown terrorism, etc. Humans analyse and reason causality based on observation, experimentation and acquired a priori knowledge. Today's technologies enable us to make observations and carry out experiments in an unprecedented scale that has created data mountains everywhere. Whereas there are exciting opportunities to discover new causation relationships, there are also unparalleled challenges to benefit from such data mountains. In this article, we present a case for developing a new piece of ICT, called Causality Discovery Technology. We reason about the necessity, feasibility and potential impact of such a technology.

  8. Explaining through causal mechanisms

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Biesbroek, Robbert; Dupuis, Johann; Wellstead, Adam

    2017-01-01

    This paper synthesizes and builds on recent critiques of the resilience literature; namely that the field has largely been unsuccessful in capturing the complexity of governance processes, in particular cause–effects relationships. We demonstrate that absence of a causal model is reflected in the

  9. A multivariate analysis of the causal flow between renewable energy consumption and GDP in Tunisia

    OpenAIRE

    Ben Salha, Ousama; Sebri, Maamar

    2013-01-01

    This paper examines the causality linkages between economic growth, renewable energy consumption, CO2 emissions and domestic investment in Tunisia between 1971 and 2010. Using the ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration, long-run relationships between the variables are identified. On the other hand, the Granger causality analysis indicates that there is bi-directional causality between renewable energy consumption and economic growth, which supports the validity of the feedback hypothes...

  10. Expert Causal Reasoning and Explanation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuipers, Benjamin

    The relationship between cognitive psychologists and researchers in artificial intelligence carries substantial benefits for both. An ongoing investigation in causal reasoning in medical problem solving systems illustrates this interaction. This paper traces a dialectic of sorts in which three different types of causal resaoning for medical…

  11. Inferring causation from cross-sectional data: Examination of the causal relationship between hyperactivity-impulsivity and novelty seeking

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexis Caroline Wood

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Previous research suggests an association between hyperactivity-impulsivity – one of the two behavioural dimensions that form attention deficit hyperactivity disorder – and the temperament characteristic of novelty seeking. We aimed to examine etiological links underlying the co-occurrence between these behaviours using a general population sample of 668 twin pairs, ages 7-10, for whom we obtained parent ratings in middle childhood; and pilot longitudinal data on 76 children. Structural equation modelling confirmed a shared genetic etiology (genetic correlation, rD=.81; 95% confidence intervals [CI]= .34-1.00 and showed that much (64% of the covariation can be accounted for by shared genetic effects. In addition, causal paths were modelled between the two behaviours; 12% of the variance in novelty seeking at age 7 was accounted for by hyperactive-impulsive behaviors at the same age. The causal effects model fits with the current characterization of hyperactive-impulsive behaviors reflecting a heightened need for stimulation. This has important implications for the management of hyperactive-impulsive behaviors in clinical settings.

  12. Is There a Causal Effect of High School Math on Labor Market Outcomes?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joensen, Juanna Schroter; Nielsen, Helena Skyt

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, we exploit a high school pilot scheme to identify the causal effect of advanced high school math on labor market outcomes. The pilot scheme reduced the costs of choosing advanced math because it allowed for a more flexible combination of math with other courses. We find clear evidence of a causal relationship between math and…

  13. THE CAUSAL ANALYSIS / DIAGNOSIS DECISION ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    CADDIS is an on-line decision support system that helps investigators in the regions, states and tribes find, access, organize, use and share information to produce causal evaluations in aquatic systems. It is based on the US EPA's Stressor Identification process which is a formal method for identifying causes of impairments in aquatic systems. CADDIS 2007 increases access to relevant information useful for causal analysis and provides methods and tools that practitioners can use to analyze their own data. The new Candidate Cause section provides overviews of commonly encountered causes of impairments to aquatic systems: metals, sediments, nutrients, flow alteration, temperature, ionic strength, and low dissolved oxygen. CADDIS includes new Conceptual Models that illustrate the relationships from sources to stressors to biological effects. An Interactive Conceptual Model for phosphorus links the diagram with supporting literature citations. The new Analyzing Data section helps practitioners analyze their data sets and interpret and use those results as evidence within the USEPA causal assessment process. Downloadable tools include a graphical user interface statistical package (CADStat), and programs for use with the freeware R statistical package, and a Microsoft Excel template. These tools can be used to quantify associations between causes and biological impairments using innovative methods such as species-sensitivity distributions, biological inferenc

  14. Obesity and infection: reciprocal causality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hainer, V; Zamrazilová, H; Kunešová, M; Bendlová, B; Aldhoon-Hainerová, I

    2015-01-01

    Associations between different infectious agents and obesity have been reported in humans for over thirty years. In many cases, as in nosocomial infections, this relationship reflects the greater susceptibility of obese individuals to infection due to impaired immunity. In such cases, the infection is not related to obesity as a causal factor but represents a complication of obesity. In contrast, several infections have been suggested as potential causal factors in human obesity. However, evidence of a causal linkage to human obesity has only been provided for adenovirus 36 (Adv36). This virus activates lipogenic and proinflammatory pathways in adipose tissue, improves insulin sensitivity, lipid profile and hepatic steatosis. The E4orf1 gene of Adv36 exerts insulin senzitizing effects, but is devoid of its pro-inflammatory modalities. The development of a vaccine to prevent Adv36-induced obesity or the use of E4orf1 as a ligand for novel antidiabetic drugs could open new horizons in the prophylaxis and treatment of obesity and diabetes. More experimental and clinical studies are needed to elucidate the mutual relations between infection and obesity, identify additional infectious agents causing human obesity, as well as define the conditions that predispose obese individuals to specific infections.

  15. What Causal Forces Shape Internet Connectivity at the AS-level?

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Chang, Hyunseok; Jamin, Sugih; Willinger, Walter

    2003-01-01

    ...." By focusing on the AS subgraph ASpc whose links represent provider-customer relationships, we present an empirical study that identifies three crucial causal forces at work in the design of AS connectivity: (i) AS-geography, i.e...

  16. Using genetics to test the causal relationship of total adiposity and periodontitis: Mendelian randomization analyses in the Gene-Lifestyle Interactions and Dental Endpoints (GLIDE) Consortium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shungin, Dmitry; Cornelis, Marilyn C; Divaris, Kimon; Holtfreter, Birte; Shaffer, John R; Yu, Yau-Hua; Barros, Silvana P; Beck, James D; Biffar, Reiner; Boerwinkle, Eric A; Crout, Richard J.; Ganna, Andrea; Hallmans, Goran; Hindy, George; Hu, Frank B; Kraft, Peter; McNeil, Daniel W; Melander, Olle; Moss, Kevin L; North, Kari E; Orho-Melander, Marju; Pedersen, Nancy L; Ridker, Paul M; Rimm, Eric B; Rose, Lynda M; Rukh, Gull; Teumer, Alexander; Weyant, Robert J; Chasman, Daniel I; Joshipura, Kaumudi; Kocher, Thomas; Magnusson, Patrik KE; Marazita, Mary L; Nilsson, Peter; Offenbacher, Steve; Davey Smith, George; Lundberg, Pernilla; Palmer, Tom M; Timpson, Nicholas J; Johansson, Ingegerd; Franks, Paul W

    2015-01-01

    Background: The observational relationship between obesity and periodontitis is widely known, yet causal evidence is lacking. Our objective was to investigate causal associations between periodontitis and body mass index (BMI). Methods: We performed Mendelian randomization analyses with BMI-associated loci combined in a genetic risk score (GRS) as the instrument for BMI. All analyses were conducted within the Gene-Lifestyle Interactions and Dental Endpoints (GLIDE) Consortium in 13 studies from Europe and the USA, including 49 066 participants with clinically assessed (seven studies, 42.1% of participants) and self-reported (six studies, 57.9% of participants) periodontitis and genotype data (17 672/31 394 with/without periodontitis); 68 761 participants with BMI and genotype data; and 57 871 participants (18 881/38 990 with/without periodontitis) with data on BMI and periodontitis. Results: In the observational meta-analysis of all participants, the pooled crude observational odds ratio (OR) for periodontitis was 1.13 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.03, 1.24] per standard deviation increase of BMI. Controlling for potential confounders attenuated this estimate (OR = 1.08; 95% CI:1.03, 1.12). For clinically assessed periodontitis, corresponding ORs were 1.25 (95% CI: 1.10, 1.42) and 1.13 (95% CI: 1.10, 1.17), respectively. In the genetic association meta-analysis, the OR for periodontitis was 1.01 (95% CI: 0.99, 1.03) per GRS unit (per one effect allele) in all participants and 1.00 (95% CI: 0.97, 1.03) in participants with clinically assessed periodontitis. The instrumental variable meta-analysis of all participants yielded an OR of 1.05 (95% CI: 0.80, 1.38) per BMI standard deviation, and 0.90 (95% CI: 0.56, 1.46) in participants with clinical data. Conclusions: Our study does not support total adiposity as a causal risk factor for periodontitis, as the point estimate is very close to the null in the causal inference analysis, with wide

  17. The Functions of Danish Causal Conjunctions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rita Therkelsen

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available In the article I propose an analysis of the Danish causal conjunctions fordi, siden and for based on the framework of Danish Functional Grammar. As conjunctions they relate two clauses, and their semantics have in common that it indicates a causal relationship between the clauses. The causal conjunctions are different as far as their distribution is concerned; siden conjoins a subordinate clause and a main clause, for conjoins two main clauses, and fordi is able to do both. Methodologically I have based my analysis on these distributional properties comparing siden and fordi conjoining a subordinate and a main clause, and comparing for and fordi conjoining two main clauses, following the thesis that they would establish a causal relationship between different kinds of content. My main findings are that fordi establishes a causal relationship between the events referred to by the two clauses, and the whole utterance functions as a statement of this causal relationship. Siden presupposes such a general causal relationship between the two events and puts forward the causing event as a reason for assuming or wishing or ordering the caused event, siden thus establishes a causal relationship between an event and a speech act. For equally presupposes a general causal relationship between two events and it establishes a causal relationship between speech acts, and fordi conjoining two main clauses is able to do this too, but in this position it also maintains its event-relating ability, the interpretation depending on contextual factors.

  18. Working 9-5: Causal Relationships Between Singers' "Day Jobs" and Their Performance Work, With Implications for Vocal Health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartlett, Irene; Wilson, Pat H

    2017-03-01

    It is acknowledged generally that professional contemporary commercial music (CCM) singers engage in supplementary employment ("the day job") to achieve and maintain a reliable living wage. In this paper, consideration is given to the impact of such nonperformance employment on CCM's sustainable vocal health. Collected data from a survey of 102 professional contemporary gig singers were analysed using descriptive statistical procedures from the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences. Although these data provided descriptions of the personal characteristics of individuals in the sample, the inclusion of open format questions encouraged participants to report details of their "lived" experience. Additionally, a meta-analysis of a range of associated literature was undertaken. Sixty-five participants (N = 102) reported that in addition to their heavy performance voice use, they were employed in "other" work (the "day job") where their speaking voice loads were high. In responding to open-ended questions, many proffered written comments that were unprompted. The collected data from this element of the research study are reported here. We propose that at least some causal factors of singers' reported voice problems may lie in the misuse or overuse of their everyday speaking voice (as demanded by their "day job") rather than a misuse of their singing voice. These findings have practical application to all whose concern is care for the vocal or emotional health and performance longevity of professional singers. Copyright © 2017 The Voice Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. A relationship-management assessment tool: questioning, identifying, and prioritizing critical aspects of customer relationships

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lindgreen, A.; Palmer, R.; Vanhamme, J.; Wouters, J.P.M.

    2006-01-01

    Abstract With customer-relationship management (CRM) no longer a buzzword among trendsetters, organizations in all types of industries initially rushed to embrace it. Although a seductively attractive concept, the implementation of CRM proved difficult, however, and organizations are struggling with

  20. Disease causality extraction based on lexical semantics and document-clause frequency from biomedical literature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Dong-Gi; Shin, Hyunjung

    2017-05-18

    Recently, research on human disease network has succeeded and has become an aid in figuring out the relationship between various diseases. In most disease networks, however, the relationship between diseases has been simply represented as an association. This representation results in the difficulty of identifying prior diseases and their influence on posterior diseases. In this paper, we propose a causal disease network that implements disease causality through text mining on biomedical literature. To identify the causality between diseases, the proposed method includes two schemes: the first is the lexicon-based causality term strength, which provides the causal strength on a variety of causality terms based on lexicon analysis. The second is the frequency-based causality strength, which determines the direction and strength of causality based on document and clause frequencies in the literature. We applied the proposed method to 6,617,833 PubMed literature, and chose 195 diseases to construct a causal disease network. From all possible pairs of disease nodes in the network, 1011 causal pairs of 149 diseases were extracted. The resulting network was compared with that of a previous study. In terms of both coverage and quality, the proposed method showed outperforming results; it determined 2.7 times more causalities and showed higher correlation with associated diseases than the existing method. This research has novelty in which the proposed method circumvents the limitations of time and cost in applying all possible causalities in biological experiments and it is a more advanced text mining technique by defining the concepts of causality term strength.

  1. A Challenge for Diagnosing Acute Liver Injury with Concomitant/Sequential Exposure to Multiple Drugs: Can Causality Assessment Scales Be Utilized to Identify the Offending Drug?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roxanne Lim

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Drug-induced hepatotoxicity most commonly manifests as an acute hepatitis syndrome and remains the leading cause of drug-induced death/mortality and the primary reason for withdrawal of drugs from the pharmaceutical market. We report a case of acute liver injury in a 12-year-old Hispanic boy, who received a series of five antibiotics (amoxicillin, ceftriaxone, vancomycin, ampicillin/sulbactam, and clindamycin for cervical lymphadenitis/retropharyngeal cellulitis. Histopathology of the liver biopsy specimen revealed acute cholestatic hepatitis. All known causes of acute liver injury were appropriately excluded and (only drug-induced liver injury was left as a cause of his cholestasis. Liver-specific causality assessment scales such as Council for the International Organization of Medical Sciences/Roussel Uclaf Causality Assessment Method scoring system (CIOMS/RUCAM, Maria and Victorino scale, and Digestive Disease Week-Japan were applied to seek the most likely offending drug. Although clindamycin is the most likely cause by clinical diagnosis, none of causality assessment scales aid in the diagnosis.

  2. Capture Hi-C identifies a novel causal gene, IL20RA, in the pan-autoimmune genetic susceptibility region 6q23.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGovern, Amanda; Schoenfelder, Stefan; Martin, Paul; Massey, Jonathan; Duffus, Kate; Plant, Darren; Yarwood, Annie; Pratt, Arthur G; Anderson, Amy E; Isaacs, John D; Diboll, Julie; Thalayasingam, Nishanthi; Ospelt, Caroline; Barton, Anne; Worthington, Jane; Fraser, Peter; Eyre, Stephen; Orozco, Gisela

    2016-11-01

    The identification of causal genes from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) is the next important step for the translation of genetic findings into biologically meaningful mechanisms of disease and potential therapeutic targets. Using novel chromatin interaction detection techniques and allele specific assays in T and B cell lines, we provide compelling evidence that redefines causal genes at the 6q23 locus, one of the most important loci that confers autoimmunity risk. Although the function of disease-associated non-coding single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) at 6q23 is unknown, the association is generally assigned to TNFAIP3, the closest gene. However, the DNA fragment containing the associated SNPs interacts through chromatin looping not only with TNFAIP3, but also with IL20RA, located 680 kb upstream. The risk allele of the most likely causal SNP, rs6927172, is correlated with both a higher frequency of interactions and increased expression of IL20RA, along with a stronger binding of both the NFκB transcription factor and chromatin marks characteristic of active enhancers in T-cells. Our results highlight the importance of gene assignment for translating GWAS findings into biologically meaningful mechanisms of disease and potential therapeutic targets; indeed, monoclonal antibody therapy targeting IL-20 is effective in the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis and psoriasis, both with strong GWAS associations to this region.

  3. On causality of extreme events

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    Massimiliano Zanin

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Multiple metrics have been developed to detect causality relations between data describing the elements constituting complex systems, all of them considering their evolution through time. Here we propose a metric able to detect causality within static data sets, by analysing how extreme events in one element correspond to the appearance of extreme events in a second one. The metric is able to detect non-linear causalities; to analyse both cross-sectional and longitudinal data sets; and to discriminate between real causalities and correlations caused by confounding factors. We validate the metric through synthetic data, dynamical and chaotic systems, and data representing the human brain activity in a cognitive task. We further show how the proposed metric is able to outperform classical causality metrics, provided non-linear relationships are present and large enough data sets are available.

  4. Is the relationship between early-onset cannabis use and educational attainment causal or due to common liability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verweij, K.J.H.; Huizink, A.C.; Agrawal, A.; Martin, N.G.; Lynskey, M.T.

    2013-01-01

    Background: Several studies have shown that early cannabis use is correlated with poor educational performance including high school drop-out. The predominant explanation for this relationship is that cannabis use causes disengagement from education. Another explanation is that the association

  5. Detectability of Granger causality for subsampled continuous-time neurophysiological processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnett, Lionel; Seth, Anil K

    2017-01-01

    Granger causality is well established within the neurosciences for inference of directed functional connectivity from neurophysiological data. These data usually consist of time series which subsample a continuous-time biophysiological process. While it is well known that subsampling can lead to imputation of spurious causal connections where none exist, less is known about the effects of subsampling on the ability to reliably detect causal connections which do exist. We present a theoretical analysis of the effects of subsampling on Granger-causal inference. Neurophysiological processes typically feature signal propagation delays on multiple time scales; accordingly, we base our analysis on a distributed-lag, continuous-time stochastic model, and consider Granger causality in continuous time at finite prediction horizons. Via exact analytical solutions, we identify relationships among sampling frequency, underlying causal time scales and detectability of causalities. We reveal complex interactions between the time scale(s) of neural signal propagation and sampling frequency. We demonstrate that detectability decays exponentially as the sample time interval increases beyond causal delay times, identify detectability "black spots" and "sweet spots", and show that downsampling may potentially improve detectability. We also demonstrate that the invariance of Granger causality under causal, invertible filtering fails at finite prediction horizons, with particular implications for inference of Granger causality from fMRI data. Our analysis emphasises that sampling rates for causal analysis of neurophysiological time series should be informed by domain-specific time scales, and that state-space modelling should be preferred to purely autoregressive modelling. On the basis of a very general model that captures the structure of neurophysiological processes, we are able to help identify confounds, and offer practical insights, for successful detection of causal connectivity

  6. Using Genetic Buffering Relationships Identified in Fission Yeast To Elucidate the Molecular Pathology of Tuberous Sclerosis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-07-01

    tsc1 and tsc2 loss of function mutations in Schizosaccharomyces pombe. Northeast Regional Yeast Meeting, June 16-17, University at Buffalo, The State...AWARD NUMBER: W81XWH-14-1-0169 TITLE: Using Genetic Buffering Relationships Identified in Fission Yeast To Elucidate the Molecular Pathology of...SUBTITLE Using Genetic Buffering Relationships Identified in Fission 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER W81XWH-14-1-0169 Yeast to Elucidate the Molecular Pathology

  7. The Causal Relationship between Interns’ Knowledge and Self-Efficacy and Their Value in Predicting the Interns’ Communication Behavior with Patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saeideh Ghaffarifar

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background: After many years of teaching, both the efficiency and efficacy of communication skills programs are under question because patients’ dissatisfaction with doctors’ communication behavior is at the top of the complaint lists. It is assumed that finding the specific role of different determinants of doctors’ communication behavior, instructional designers can plan more effective training programs. This study aims to explore the predictive value of interns’ knowledge and self-efficacy in building effective relationship with patients and determine the causal relationship between interns’ knowledge and self-efficacy about effective doctor-patient relationship. Methods: In this cross-sectional study, PRECEDE model was applied and the analyzed content from semistructured interviews with 7 interns and 14 faculty members was combined with the items from literature review. All the emerged items were categorized under eight constructs of social cognitive theory. The validity and reliability of the items of the research questionnaire were examined by 40 interns and an expert panel of 14 faculty members. The questionnaires were completed by 203 medical interns and confirmatory factor analysis (CFA was done on the items. The data were analyzed by SPSS.21 and LISREL 8.80. Results: CFA indicated a good fit to the data. Knowledge and self-efficacy, together, explained 23 percent of the variance in interns’ communicative behavior. 53 percent of the changes in interns’ selfefficacy were attributed to the changes in interns’ knowledge. Conclusion: Improving the interns’ shared vision can increase the quality of their knowledge and instructional designs based on learning facts, and gaining insights about effective doctor-patient relationship can increase the interns’ self-efficacy and consequently improve the interns’ communication skills.

  8. Causal Dynamic Relationships between Political–Economic Factors and Export Performance in the Renewable Energy Technologies Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bongsuk Sung

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available This study explores how political–economic forces could affect export performance in the renewable energy technologies market. We conduct panel framework analyses to verify the characteristics of panel data for 19 countries before establishing the panel estimator meant to test the effects of political–economic forces on export specialization. We consider the results of the panel framework analyses and develop an empirical model to test casual dynamic relationships between political–economic forces and export performance. The results from the least squares dummy variable-corrected estimation indicate that the major factors promoting the export specialization of renewable energy technologies are, in order of decreasing importance, public pressure, market size, and government demand-pull policy. However, the traditional energy industry has no significant effect on export performance. Finally, this study finds that dynamic effects exist in all estimations.

  9. Nexo causal em matéria penal: análise da jurisprudência dos tribunais de justiça Case law regarding causal relationship between conduct and result to attribute criminal liability in brazilian state supreme courts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luisa Moraes Abreu Ferreira

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Este artigo discute uma pesquisa empírica apresentada em 2009 como Trabalho de Conclusão de Curso na Direito GV sobre a definição da causalidade para responsabilização criminal nos tribunais de justiça. Foram analisadas 84 apelações criminais julgadas entre 2007 e 2008 e extraídos resultados quantitativos e qualitativos relacionados aos dados do processo, ao resultado da decisão e à argumentação. A análise desses resultados levou a cinco principais constatações: (1 a discussão sobre nexo causal ocorre quase exclusivamente em casos de crimes culposos; (2 muitas vezes, apesar de discutido pelas partes, a existência de nexo causal não é afirmada no acórdão; (3 o nexo causal é frequentemente afirmado com pouca fundamentação e, em geral, com menos argumentos do que a afirmação de culpa; (4 a teoria mais utilizada pelos tribunais é a da equivalência das condições; e (5 o nexo causal é frequentemente afirmado como decorrência da culpa.This paper reports empirical research presented in 2009 as final dissertation for graduation as bachelor of laws at direito gv about the definition of causation to attribute criminal liability in the brazilian state supreme Courts. A total of 84 criminal appeals, ruled between 2007 and 2008, were analyzed and quantitative and qualitative results related to procedure data, results of the decision and reasoning were extracted. Analysis of these results led to five major findings: (1 discussion of causation occurs almost exclusively in cases of willful crimes, (2 often, though discussed by the parties, a causal relationship is not asserted in the decision, (3 causal relationship is often stated with little reasoning and, generally, with fewer arguments than the statement of negligence, (a the causal theory most used by the courts is that cause is every necessary condition for the event, and (5j causal relationship is often asserted as a result of negligence.

  10. Investigating the Causal Relationship of C-Reactive Protein with 32 Complex Somatic and Psychiatric Outcomes: A Large-Scale Cross-Consortium Mendelian Randomization Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bram P Prins

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available C-reactive protein (CRP is associated with immune, cardiometabolic, and psychiatric traits and diseases. Yet it is inconclusive whether these associations are causal.We performed Mendelian randomization (MR analyses using two genetic risk scores (GRSs as instrumental variables (IVs. The first GRS consisted of four single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs in the CRP gene (GRSCRP, and the second consisted of 18 SNPs that were significantly associated with CRP levels in the largest genome-wide association study (GWAS to date (GRSGWAS. To optimize power, we used summary statistics from GWAS consortia and tested the association of these two GRSs with 32 complex somatic and psychiatric outcomes, with up to 123,865 participants per outcome from populations of European ancestry. We performed heterogeneity tests to disentangle the pleiotropic effect of IVs. A Bonferroni-corrected significance level of less than 0.0016 was considered statistically significant. An observed p-value equal to or less than 0.05 was considered nominally significant evidence for a potential causal association, yet to be confirmed. The strengths (F-statistics of the IVs were 31.92-3,761.29 and 82.32-9,403.21 for GRSCRP and GRSGWAS, respectively. CRP GRSGWAS showed a statistically significant protective relationship of a 10% genetically elevated CRP level with the risk of schizophrenia (odds ratio [OR] 0.86 [95% CI 0.79-0.94]; p < 0.001. We validated this finding with individual-level genotype data from the schizophrenia GWAS (OR 0.96 [95% CI 0.94-0.98]; p < 1.72 × 10-6. Further, we found that a standardized CRP polygenic risk score (CRPPRS at p-value thresholds of 1 × 10-4, 0.001, 0.01, 0.05, and 0.1 using individual-level data also showed a protective effect (OR < 1.00 against schizophrenia; the first CRPPRS (built of SNPs with p < 1 × 10-4 showed a statistically significant (p < 2.45 × 10-4 protective effect with an OR of 0.97 (95% CI 0.95-0.99. The CRP GRSGWAS showed that a

  11. Discrete causal theory emergent spacetime and the causal metric hypothesis

    CERN Document Server

    Dribus, Benjamin F

    2017-01-01

    This book evaluates and suggests potentially critical improvements to causal set theory, one of the best-motivated approaches to the outstanding problems of fundamental physics. Spacetime structure is of central importance to physics beyond general relativity and the standard model. The causal metric hypothesis treats causal relations as the basis of this structure. The book develops the consequences of this hypothesis under the assumption of a fundamental scale, with smooth spacetime geometry viewed as emergent. This approach resembles causal set theory, but differs in important ways; for example, the relative viewpoint, emphasizing relations between pairs of events, and relationships between pairs of histories, is central. The book culminates in a dynamical law for quantum spacetime, derived via generalized path summation.

  12. No evidence of a causal relationship between hypothyroidism and glaucoma: A Danish nationwide register-based cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thvilum, Marianne; Brandt, Frans; Brix, Thomas Heiberg; Hegedüs, Laszlo

    2018-01-01

    An interrelationship between hypothyroidism and glaucoma, due to a shared autoimmune background or based on deposition of mucopolysaccharides in the trabecular meshwork in the eye, has been suggested but is at present unsubstantiated. Therefore, our objective was to investigate, at a nationwide and population-based level, whether there is such an association. Observational cohort study using record-linkage data from nationwide Danish health registers. 121,799 individuals diagnosed with a first episode of hypothyroidism were identified and were matched with 4 non-hypothyroid controls according to age and sex. Prevalence of glaucoma was recorded and cases and controls were followed over a mean of 7.1 years (range 0-17). Logistic and Cox regression models were used to assess the risk of glaucoma before and after the diagnosis of hypothyroidism, respectively. Overall, we found a higher prevalence of glaucoma in subjects with hypothyroidism as compared to controls (4.6% vs. 4.3%, p glaucoma [1.09; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.04-1.13]. Based on the Cox regression model, there was no increased risk of glaucoma after the diagnosis of hypothyroidism [hazard ratio (HR) 1.00; 95% CI: 0.96-1.06], and the HR decreased further after adjusting for pre-existing co-morbidity (0.88; 95% CI: 0.84-0.93). There was an increased risk of glaucoma before but not after the diagnosis of hypothyroidism, suggesting that screening for glaucoma in hypothyroid individuals is unwarranted.

  13. Female Labor Supply and Fertility. Causal Evidence for Latin America

    OpenAIRE

    Darío Tortarolo

    2014-01-01

    In this paper I study the causal relationship between fertility and female labor supply using census data from 14 Latin American countries and the U.S. over the span of three decades (1980, 1990 and 2000). Parental preferences for a gender-balanced family (mixed-sex children) is exploited as a source of exogenous variation in fertility. Although OLS estimates suggest a statistically signi cant negative relationship in the 39 censuses used, instrumental variables approach fails to identify a c...

  14. No evidence of a causal relationship between hypothyroidism and glaucoma: A Danish nationwide register-based cohort study

    Science.gov (United States)

    2018-01-01

    Background An interrelationship between hypothyroidism and glaucoma, due to a shared autoimmune background or based on deposition of mucopolysaccharides in the trabecular meshwork in the eye, has been suggested but is at present unsubstantiated. Therefore, our objective was to investigate, at a nationwide and population-based level, whether there is such an association. Subjects and methods Observational cohort study using record-linkage data from nationwide Danish health registers. 121,799 individuals diagnosed with a first episode of hypothyroidism were identified and were matched with 4 non-hypothyroid controls according to age and sex. Prevalence of glaucoma was recorded and cases and controls were followed over a mean of 7.1 years (range 0–17). Logistic and Cox regression models were used to assess the risk of glaucoma before and after the diagnosis of hypothyroidism, respectively. Results Overall, we found a higher prevalence of glaucoma in subjects with hypothyroidism as compared to controls (4.6% vs. 4.3%, p hypothyroidism, the odds ratio (OR) was significantly increased for glaucoma [1.09; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.04–1.13]. Based on the Cox regression model, there was no increased risk of glaucoma after the diagnosis of hypothyroidism [hazard ratio (HR) 1.00; 95% CI: 0.96–1.06], and the HR decreased further after adjusting for pre-existing co-morbidity (0.88; 95% CI: 0.84–0.93). Conclusions There was an increased risk of glaucoma before but not after the diagnosis of hypothyroidism, suggesting that screening for glaucoma in hypothyroid individuals is unwarranted. PMID:29444121

  15. Sleep and optimism: A longitudinal study of bidirectional causal relationship and its mediating and moderating variables in a Chinese student sample.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, Esther Yuet Ying; Hui, C Harry; Lam, Jasmine; Cheung, Shu-Fai

    2017-01-01

    While both sleep and optimism have been found to be predictive of well-being, few studies have examined their relationship with each other. Neither do we know much about the mediators and moderators of the relationship. This study investigated (1) the causal relationship between sleep quality and optimism in a college student sample, (2) the role of symptoms of depression, anxiety, and stress as mediators, and (3) how circadian preference might moderate the relationship. Internet survey data were collected from 1,684 full-time university students (67.6% female, mean age = 20.9 years, SD = 2.66) at three time-points, spanning about 19 months. Measures included the Attributional Style Questionnaire, the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index, the Composite Scale of Morningness, and the Depression Anxiety Stress Scale-21. Moderate correlations were found among sleep quality, depressive mood, stress symptoms, anxiety symptoms, and optimism. Cross-lagged analyses showed a bidirectional effect between optimism and sleep quality. Moreover, path analyses demonstrated that anxiety and stress symptoms partially mediated the influence of optimism on sleep quality, while depressive mood partially mediated the influence of sleep quality on optimism. In support of our hypothesis, sleep quality affects mood symptoms and optimism differently for different circadian preferences. Poor sleep results in depressive mood and thus pessimism in non-morning persons only. In contrast, the aggregated (direct and indirect) effects of optimism on sleep quality were invariant of circadian preference. Taken together, people who are pessimistic generally have more anxious mood and stress symptoms, which adversely affect sleep while morningness seems to have a specific protective effect countering the potential damage poor sleep has on optimism. In conclusion, optimism and sleep quality were both cause and effect of each other. Depressive mood partially explained the effect of sleep quality on optimism

  16. Causal relationships of sport and exercise involvement with goal orientations, perceived competence and intrinsic motivation in physical education: a longitudinal study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papaioannou, Athanasios; Bebetsos, Evaggelos; Theodorakis, Yannis; Christodoulidis, Triantafyllos; Kouli, Olga

    2006-04-01

    Little information exists about the causal relationships of sport and exercise participation with goal orientations, perceived athletic competence and intrinsic motivation in physical education. A longitudinal study was conducted involving 882 Greek students who completed questionnaires on three occasions: 3 - 5 weeks into the academic year, 3 - 6 weeks before the end of the academic year, and 7 months later. The data were analysed using structural equation models, controlling for age. Task orientation and intrinsic motivation in physical education at the beginning of the academic year predicted sport and exercise participation 7 and 14 months later. Perceived athletic competence both at the beginning and end of the academic year predicted sport and exercise participation 7 and 14 months later, while ego orientation did not predict sport and exercise involvement at either time. Previous sport and exercise participation had positive effects on task orientation and perceived athletic competence 3 - 6 weeks before the end of the academic year and predicted all cognitive-affective constructs 7 months later. These results imply that the cultivation of task orientation, intrinsic motivation in physical education and perceived athletic competence will help to promote sport and exercise participation in adolescence.

  17. Causally nonseparable processes admitting a causal model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Feix, Adrien; Araújo, Mateus; Brukner, Caslav

    2016-01-01

    A recent framework of quantum theory with no global causal order predicts the existence of ‘causally nonseparable’ processes. Some of these processes produce correlations incompatible with any causal order (they violate so-called ‘causal inequalities’ analogous to Bell inequalities ) while others do not (they admit a ‘causal model’ analogous to a local model ). Here we show for the first time that bipartite causally nonseparable processes with a causal model exist, and give evidence that they have no clear physical interpretation. We also provide an algorithm to generate processes of this kind and show that they have nonzero measure in the set of all processes. We demonstrate the existence of processes which stop violating causal inequalities but are still causally nonseparable when mixed with a certain amount of ‘white noise’. This is reminiscent of the behavior of Werner states in the context of entanglement and nonlocality. Finally, we provide numerical evidence for the existence of causally nonseparable processes which have a causal model even when extended with an entangled state shared among the parties. (paper)

  18. Identifying support functions in developmental relationships: A self-determination perspective

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Janssen, Suzanne; van Vuuren, Hubrecht A.; de Jong, Menno D.T.

    2013-01-01

    This study examines the content of developmental networks from the perspective of self-determination theory. We qualitatively examine 18 protégés' constellations of developmental relationships to identify specific types of developmental support functions. Our study shows that the adoption of

  19. Causal Relationships Between Financial and Economic Development in Gulf Countries = Körfez Ülkelerinde Finansal ve Ekonomik Gelişme Arasındaki Nedensel İlişki

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hassan AL-AALİ

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the causal relationships between financial and economic aggregates in three Gulf countries, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia, over the 64?quarterly period from 1973 to 1988.Patrick's causality patterns at different stages of economic development were also investigated by dividing the entire analysis period into the sub-periods of 1973?81, and 1982?88. Financial variables used were M1, M2 and the total bank credits. Exports in all the three countries plus government expenditures in Kuwait were employed as proxies to GDP.Sims' causality model which is based on Granger's definition was utilized and the following general patterns were detected: For the entire analysis period causality ran from financial to economic variables in Kuwait, but from economic to financial variables in Bahrain. While no generalization was possible for Saudi Arabia for the first sub-period (l973?81, a supply-leading phenomenon was dominant in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia. In Kuwait the results were mixed. In the second sub-period (1982?88, the dominant relationship was demand following in all the three countries. These results were seen in conformity with the economic trends in these countries over the study period.

  20. Space and time in perceptual causality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benjamin Straube

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Inferring causality is a fundamental feature of human cognition that allows us to theorize about and predict future states of the world. Michotte suggested that humans automatically perceive causality based on certain perceptual features of events. However, individual differences in judgments of perceptual causality cast doubt on Michotte’s view. To gain insights in the neural basis of individual difference in the perception of causality, our participants judged causal relationships in animations of a blue ball colliding with a red ball (a launching event while fMRI-data were acquired. Spatial continuity and temporal contiguity were varied parametrically in these stimuli. We did not find consistent brain activation differences between trials judged as caused and those judged as non-caused, making it unlikely that humans have universal instantiation of perceptual causality in the brain. However, participants were slower to respond to and showed greater neural activity for violations of causality, suggesting that humans are biased to expect causal relationships when moving objects appear to interact. Our participants demonstrated considerable individual differences in their sensitivity to spatial and temporal characteristics in perceiving causality. These qualitative differences in sensitivity to time or space in perceiving causality were instantiated in individual differences in activation of the left basal ganglia or right parietal lobe, respectively. Thus, the perception that the movement of one object causes the movement of another is triggered by elemental spatial and temporal sensitivities, which themselves are instantiated in specific distinct neural networks.

  1. Linear causal modeling with structural equations

    CERN Document Server

    Mulaik, Stanley A

    2009-01-01

    Emphasizing causation as a functional relationship between variables that describe objects, Linear Causal Modeling with Structural Equations integrates a general philosophical theory of causation with structural equation modeling (SEM) that concerns the special case of linear causal relations. In addition to describing how the functional relation concept may be generalized to treat probabilistic causation, the book reviews historical treatments of causation and explores recent developments in experimental psychology on studies of the perception of causation. It looks at how to perceive causal

  2. Identifying the oil price-macroeconomy relationship. An empirical mode decomposition analysis of US data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oladosu, Gbadebo

    2009-01-01

    This paper employs the empirical mode decomposition (EMD) method to filter cyclical components of US quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) and quarterly average oil price (West Texas Intermediate - WTI). The method is adaptive and applicable to non-linear and non-stationary data. A correlation analysis of the resulting components is performed and examined for insights into the relationship between oil and the economy. Several components of this relationship are identified. However, the principal one is that the medium-run component of the oil price has a negative relationship with the main cyclical component of the GDP. In addition, weak correlations suggesting a lagging, demand-driven component and a long-run component of the relationship were also identified. Comparisons of these findings with significant oil supply disruption and recession dates were supportive. The study identifies a number of lessons applicable to recent oil market events, including the eventuality of persistent oil price and economic decline following a long oil price run-up. In addition, it was found that oil market related exogenous events are associated with short- to medium-run price implications regardless of whether they lead to actual supply losses. (author)

  3. Network and system diagrams revisited: Satisfying CEA requirements for causality analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Perdicoulis, Anastassios; Piper, Jake

    2008-01-01

    Published guidelines for Cumulative Effects Assessment (CEA) have called for the identification of cause-and-effect relationships, or causality, challenging researchers to identify methods that can possibly meet CEA's specific requirements. Together with an outline of these requirements from CEA key literature, the various definitions of cumulative effects point to the direction of a method for causality analysis that is visually-oriented and qualitative. This article consequently revisits network and system diagrams, resolves their reported shortcomings, and extends their capabilities with causal loop diagramming methodology. The application of the resulting composite causality analysis method to three Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) case studies appears to satisfy the specific requirements of CEA regarding causality. Three 'moments' are envisaged for the use of the proposed method: during the scoping stage, during the assessment process, and during the stakeholder participation process

  4. Time-varying causality between energy consumption, CO2 emissions, and economic growth: evidence from US states.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tzeremes, Panayiotis

    2018-02-01

    This study is the first attempt to investigate the relationship between CO 2 emissions, energy consumption, and economic growth at a state level, for the 50 US states, through a time-varying causality approach using annual data over the periods 1960-2010. The time-varying causality test facilitates the better understanding of the causal relationship between the covariates owing to the fact that it might identify causalities when the time-constant hypothesis is rejected. Our findings indicate the existence of a time-varying causality at the state level. Specifically, the results probe eight bidirectional time-varying causalities between energy consumption and CO 2 emission, six cases of two-way time-varying causalities between economic growth and energy consumption, and five bidirectional time-varying causalities between economic growth and CO 2 emission. Moreover, we examine the traditional environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis for the states. Notably, our results do not endorse the validity of the EKC, albeit the majority of states support an inverted N-shaped relationship. Lastly, we can identify multiple policy implications based on the empirical results.

  5. Causal reasoning in physics

    CERN Document Server

    Frisch, Mathias

    2014-01-01

    Much has been written on the role of causal notions and causal reasoning in the so-called 'special sciences' and in common sense. But does causal reasoning also play a role in physics? Mathias Frisch argues that, contrary to what influential philosophical arguments purport to show, the answer is yes. Time-asymmetric causal structures are as integral a part of the representational toolkit of physics as a theory's dynamical equations. Frisch develops his argument partly through a critique of anti-causal arguments and partly through a detailed examination of actual examples of causal notions in physics, including causal principles invoked in linear response theory and in representations of radiation phenomena. Offering a new perspective on the nature of scientific theories and causal reasoning, this book will be of interest to professional philosophers, graduate students, and anyone interested in the role of causal thinking in science.

  6. Theories of Causality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Robert

    2010-03-01

    There are a wide range of views on causality. To some (e.g. Karl Popper) causality is superfluous. Bertrand Russell said ``In advanced science the word cause never occurs. Causality is a relic of a bygone age.'' At the other extreme Rafael Sorkin and L. Bombelli suggest that space and time do not exist but are only an approximation to a reality that is simply a discrete ordered set, a ``causal set.'' For them causality IS reality. Others, like Judea Pearl and Nancy Cartwright are seaking to build a complex fundamental theory of causality (Causality, Cambridge Univ. Press, 2000) Or perhaps a theory of causality is simply the theory of functions. This is more or less my take on causality.

  7. Relationships of self-identified cold tolerance and cold-induced vasodilatation in the finger

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Joonhee; Lee, Joo-Young

    2016-04-01

    This study was conducted to investigate relationships of self-identified cold tolerance and cold-induced vasodilatation (CIVD) in the finger. Nine males and 34 females participated in the following 2 tests: a CIVD test and a self-reported survey. The CIVD test was conducted 30-min cold-water immersion (3.8 ± 0.3 °C) of the middle finger at an air temperature of 27.9 ± 0.1 °C. The self-reported questionnaire consisted of 28 questions about whole and local body cold and heat tolerances. By a cluster analysis on the survey results, the participants were divided into two groups: high self-identified cold tolerance (HSCT, n = 25) and low self-identified cold tolerance (LSCT, n = 18). LSCT had lower self-identified cold tolerance ( P cold or heat tolerance had relationships with cold tolerance index, T max, and amplitude ( P cold tolerance classified through a standardized survey could be a good index to predict physiological cold tolerance.

  8. Introductive remarks on causal inference

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silvana A. Romio

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available One of the more challenging issues in epidemiological research is being able to provide an unbiased estimate of the causal exposure-disease effect, to assess the possible etiological mechanisms and the implication for public health. A major source of bias is confounding, which can spuriously create or mask the causal relationship. In the last ten years, methodological research has been developed to better de_ne the concept of causation in epidemiology and some important achievements have resulted in new statistical models. In this review, we aim to show how a technique the well known by statisticians, i.e. standardization, can be seen as a method to estimate causal e_ects, equivalent under certain conditions to the inverse probability treatment weight procedure.

  9. Bayesian networks improve causal environmental ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rule-based weight of evidence approaches to ecological risk assessment may not account for uncertainties and generally lack probabilistic integration of lines of evidence. Bayesian networks allow causal inferences to be made from evidence by including causal knowledge about the problem, using this knowledge with probabilistic calculus to combine multiple lines of evidence, and minimizing biases in predicting or diagnosing causal relationships. Too often, sources of uncertainty in conventional weight of evidence approaches are ignored that can be accounted for with Bayesian networks. Specifying and propagating uncertainties improve the ability of models to incorporate strength of the evidence in the risk management phase of an assessment. Probabilistic inference from a Bayesian network allows evaluation of changes in uncertainty for variables from the evidence. The network structure and probabilistic framework of a Bayesian approach provide advantages over qualitative approaches in weight of evidence for capturing the impacts of multiple sources of quantifiable uncertainty on predictions of ecological risk. Bayesian networks can facilitate the development of evidence-based policy under conditions of uncertainty by incorporating analytical inaccuracies or the implications of imperfect information, structuring and communicating causal issues through qualitative directed graph formulations, and quantitatively comparing the causal power of multiple stressors on value

  10. Identifying the Dominant Perspective on Customer Relationship Management in the Last Decade 2000 – 2010

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ayca KANGAL

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Customer relationship management (CRM is a popular field of research at the intersection of a number of disciplines such as marketing, business management, information technologies and computer sciences, closely followed by scholars, company executives, and consultant firms. The current global competitive environment leads firms to develop and strengthen their relations with their customers, their most valuable assets. Long-term, mutually beneficial relations that businesses build with their customers provide an important competitive advantage against competitors. An effective and efficient customer relationship management would turn into customer satisfaction and loyalty, lower costs, and higher shareholder value for the firms. The aim of this study is to identify the dominant perspective and its sub-concepts used on scholars’ conceptualization of CRM employed in customer relationship management literature. With this purpose, a literature review was conducted for the period of 2000-2010. The results of the study show that customer relationship management was mostly conceptualized as a strategy by the scholars.

  11. Reasoning with Causal Cycles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rehder, Bob

    2017-01-01

    This article assesses how people reason with categories whose features are related in causal cycles. Whereas models based on causal graphical models (CGMs) have enjoyed success modeling category-based judgments as well as a number of other cognitive phenomena, CGMs are only able to represent causal structures that are acyclic. A number of new…

  12. Teachers' Interpersonal Style and Its Relationship to Emotions, Causal Attributions, and Type of Challenging Behaviors Displayed by Students with Intellectual Disabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alevriadou, Anastasia; Pavlidou, Kyriaki

    2016-01-01

    Teachers' interpersonal style is a new field of research in the study of students with intellectual disabilities and challenging behaviors in school context. In the present study, we investigate emotions and causal attributions of three basic types of challenging behaviors: aggression, stereotypy, and self-injury, in relation to teachers'…

  13. Exploring a causal role of DNA methylation in the relationship between maternal vitamin B12 during pregnancy and child's IQ at age 8, cognitive performance and educational attainment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Caramaschi, Doretta; Sharp, Gemma C; Nohr, Ellen A

    2017-01-01

    An adequate intake of vitamin B12 during pregnancy plays an important role in offspring neurodevelopment, potentially via epigenetic processes. We used a two-step Mendelian randomization approach to assess whether DNA methylation plays a mediating and causal role in associations between maternal...

  14. BLAT2DOLite: An Online System for Identifying Significant Relationships between Genetic Sequences and Diseases.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liang Cheng

    Full Text Available The significantly related diseases of sequences could play an important role in understanding the functions of these sequences. In this paper, we introduced BLAT2DOLite, an online system for annotating human genes and diseases and identifying the significant relationships between sequences and diseases. Currently, BLAT2DOLite integrates Entrez Gene database and Disease Ontology Lite (DOLite, which contain loci of gene and relationships between genes and diseases. It utilizes hypergeometric test to calculate P-values between genes and diseases of DOLite. The system can be accessed from: http://123.59.132.21:8080/BLAT2DOLite. The corresponding web service is described in: http://123.59.132.21:8080/BLAT2DOLite/BLAT2DOLiteIDMappingPort?wsdl.

  15. Causal imprinting in causal structure learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Eric G; Ahn, Woo-Kyoung

    2012-11-01

    Suppose one observes a correlation between two events, B and C, and infers that B causes C. Later one discovers that event A explains away the correlation between B and C. Normatively, one should now dismiss or weaken the belief that B causes C. Nonetheless, participants in the current study who observed a positive contingency between B and C followed by evidence that B and C were independent given A, persisted in believing that B causes C. The authors term this difficulty in revising initially learned causal structures "causal imprinting." Throughout four experiments, causal imprinting was obtained using multiple dependent measures and control conditions. A Bayesian analysis showed that causal imprinting may be normative under some conditions, but causal imprinting also occurred in the current study when it was clearly non-normative. It is suggested that causal imprinting occurs due to the influence of prior knowledge on how reasoners interpret later evidence. Consistent with this view, when participants first viewed the evidence showing that B and C are independent given A, later evidence with only B and C did not lead to the belief that B causes C. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Hierarchical organisation of causal graphs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dziopa, P.

    1993-01-01

    This paper deals with the design of a supervision system using a hierarchy of models formed by graphs, in which the variables are the nodes and the causal relations between the variables of the arcs. To obtain a representation of the variables evolutions which contains only the relevant features of their real evolutions, the causal relations are completed with qualitative transfer functions (QTFs) which produce roughly the behaviour of the classical transfer functions. Major improvements have been made in the building of the hierarchical organization. First, the basic variables of the uppermost level and the causal relations between them are chosen. The next graph is built by adding intermediary variables to the upper graph. When the undermost graph has been built, the transfer functions parameters corresponding to its causal relations are identified. The second task consists in the upwelling of the information from the undermost graph to the uppermost one. A fusion procedure of the causal relations has been designed to compute the QFTs relevant for each level. This procedure aims to reduce the number of parameters needed to represent an evolution at a high level of abstraction. These techniques have been applied to the hierarchical modelling of nuclear process. (authors). 8 refs., 12 figs

  17. On identifying relationships between the flood scaling exponent and basin attributes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medhi, Hemanta; Tripathi, Shivam

    2015-07-01

    Floods are known to exhibit self-similarity and follow scaling laws that form the basis of regional flood frequency analysis. However, the relationship between basin attributes and the scaling behavior of floods is still not fully understood. Identifying these relationships is essential for drawing connections between hydrological processes in a basin and the flood response of the basin. The existing studies mostly rely on simulation models to draw these connections. This paper proposes a new methodology that draws connections between basin attributes and the flood scaling exponents by using observed data. In the proposed methodology, region-of-influence approach is used to delineate homogeneous regions for each gaging station. Ordinary least squares regression is then applied to estimate flood scaling exponents for each homogeneous region, and finally stepwise regression is used to identify basin attributes that affect flood scaling exponents. The effectiveness of the proposed methodology is tested by applying it to data from river basins in the United States. The results suggest that flood scaling exponent is small for regions having (i) large abstractions from precipitation in the form of large soil moisture storages and high evapotranspiration losses, and (ii) large fractions of overland flow compared to base flow, i.e., regions having fast-responding basins. Analysis of simple scaling and multiscaling of floods showed evidence of simple scaling for regions in which the snowfall dominates the total precipitation.

  18. Neural theory for the perception of causal actions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fleischer, Falk; Christensen, Andrea; Caggiano, Vittorio; Thier, Peter; Giese, Martin A

    2012-07-01

    The efficient prediction of the behavior of others requires the recognition of their actions and an understanding of their action goals. In humans, this process is fast and extremely robust, as demonstrated by classical experiments showing that human observers reliably judge causal relationships and attribute interactive social behavior to strongly simplified stimuli consisting of simple moving geometrical shapes. While psychophysical experiments have identified critical visual features that determine the perception of causality and agency from such stimuli, the underlying detailed neural mechanisms remain largely unclear, and it is an open question why humans developed this advanced visual capability at all. We created pairs of naturalistic and abstract stimuli of hand actions that were exactly matched in terms of their motion parameters. We show that varying critical stimulus parameters for both stimulus types leads to very similar modulations of the perception of causality. However, the additional form information about the hand shape and its relationship with the object supports more fine-grained distinctions for the naturalistic stimuli. Moreover, we show that a physiologically plausible model for the recognition of goal-directed hand actions reproduces the observed dependencies of causality perception on critical stimulus parameters. These results support the hypothesis that selectivity for abstract action stimuli might emerge from the same neural mechanisms that underlie the visual processing of natural goal-directed action stimuli. Furthermore, the model proposes specific detailed neural circuits underlying this visual function, which can be evaluated in future experiments.

  19. Determining Whether a Definitive Causal Relationship Exists Between Aripiprazole and Tardive Dyskinesia and/or Dystonia in Patients With Major Depressive Disorder, Part 3: Clinical Trial Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Preskorn, Sheldon H; Macaluso, Matthew

    2016-03-01

    three, 14-week studies involving 1088 subjects, 409 of whom were elderly like the 76-year-old individual presented in the case in the first column of this series. Finally, 3 short-term studies evaluated the use of aripiprazole in patients with psychosis associated with Alzheimer disease, a population who would be considered a relatively higher risk group for developing TD when exposed to antipsychotics and that also closely matches the patient in the case presented at the beginning of this series in terms of age. No incidence of TD was reported in this sample and mean scores on the Abnormal Involuntary Movement Scale decreased in individuals exposed to aripiprazole compared with those on placebo. On the basis of results of this review and data from registration trials of aripiprazole for all indications, the potential (or raw) incidence of what was termed TD occurred at rates ranging from 0.004 (4/987) based on long-term safety data from the program investigating aripiprazole augmentation treatment in MDD, to 0.0016 (19/11,897) based on the total safety database from aripiprazole registration trials for all indications, to 0 in trials in elderly individuals with Alzheimer disease. The confidence intervals for all of these potential incidence rates overlap with zero. The next column in this 5-part series reviews 37 case reports that reported TD in association with aripiprazole treatment and 27 case reports that suggested an improvement in preexisting TD with aripiprazole treatment. The fifth and final column in this series will discuss the types of prohibitively expensive and logistically difficult studies that would be needed to determine whether a definitive causal relationship between aripiprazole and TD exists.

  20. Repeated causal decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagmayer, York; Meder, Björn

    2013-01-01

    Many of our decisions refer to actions that have a causal impact on the external environment. Such actions may not only allow for the mere learning of expected values or utilities but also for acquiring knowledge about the causal structure of our world. We used a repeated decision-making paradigm to examine what kind of knowledge people acquire in such situations and how they use their knowledge to adapt to changes in the decision context. Our studies show that decision makers' behavior is strongly contingent on their causal beliefs and that people exploit their causal knowledge to assess the consequences of changes in the decision problem. A high consistency between hypotheses about causal structure, causally expected values, and actual choices was observed. The experiments show that (a) existing causal hypotheses guide the interpretation of decision feedback, (b) consequences of decisions are used to revise existing causal beliefs, and (c) decision makers use the experienced feedback to induce a causal model of the choice situation even when they have no initial causal hypotheses, which (d) enables them to adapt their choices to changes of the decision problem. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved).

  1. Applying causal mediation analysis to personality disorder research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walters, Glenn D

    2018-01-01

    This article is designed to address fundamental issues in the application of causal mediation analysis to research on personality disorders. Causal mediation analysis is used to identify mechanisms of effect by testing variables as putative links between the independent and dependent variables. As such, it would appear to have relevance to personality disorder research. It is argued that proper implementation of causal mediation analysis requires that investigators take several factors into account. These factors are discussed under 5 headings: variable selection, model specification, significance evaluation, effect size estimation, and sensitivity testing. First, care must be taken when selecting the independent, dependent, mediator, and control variables for a mediation analysis. Some variables make better mediators than others and all variables should be based on reasonably reliable indicators. Second, the mediation model needs to be properly specified. This requires that the data for the analysis be prospectively or historically ordered and possess proper causal direction. Third, it is imperative that the significance of the identified pathways be established, preferably with a nonparametric bootstrap resampling approach. Fourth, effect size estimates should be computed or competing pathways compared. Finally, investigators employing the mediation method are advised to perform a sensitivity analysis. Additional topics covered in this article include parallel and serial multiple mediation designs, moderation, and the relationship between mediation and moderation. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

  2. Causality Between Urban Concentration and Environmental Quality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amin Pujiati

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Population is concentrated in urban areas can cause the external diseconomies on environment if it exceeds the carrying capacity of the space and the urban economy. Otherwise the quality of the environment is getting better, led to the concentration of population in urban areas are increasingly high. This study aims to analyze the relationship of causality between the urban concentration and environmental quality in urban agglomeration areas. The data used in the study of secondary data obtained from the Central Bureau of statistics and the City Government from 2000 to 2013. The analytical method used is the Granger causality and descriptive. Granger causality study results showed no pattern of reciprocal causality, between urban concentration and the quality of the environment, but there unidirectional relationship between the urban concentration and environmental quality. This means that increasing urban concentration led to decreased environmental quality.

  3. Analysis of Causality Relationship of Components of Socio-ecological and Socio-economical System for Management of the Outermost Small Islands: A Case of Lingayan Island, Central Sulawesi

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Saleh Lubis

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Indonesia has more than 17,506 islands and 92 islands of them are outermost small islands.  Lingayan is one of them located in Northwest of Sulawesi Island and it has geostrategic role to determine the sea boundaries of Indonesian State (NKRI including the territorial seas, the exclusive economic zone and the continental shelf.  Recently, the coastal ecosystems of Lingayan has degraded and the island’s economy is weak so they cannot support the life’s survival of inhabiting people. This condition could weaken the geostrategic role in accordance with article 121 Chapter VIII of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS. Based on the above reasons, the study aim to examine and assess the causal relation of components in the socio-ecological and socio-economical systems as a basis for management of the Lingayan Island with target on conservation of coastal ecosystems and growth of inhabitant’ business economic.  Causalities relations within components were built using Statistic Equation Model (SEM with AMOS method and 40 constructed indicators as well as determinate the suitability program using Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP.  The research showed that there is relationship between the components of socio-ecological systems as indicated by the fit model of causal relation path diagram that provides chi square value = 236.994, RMSEA = 0.083, GFI = 0.884.  Furthermore, there is relationship between the components of socio-economical that provides chi square value = 192.824, RMSEA = 0.081, GFI = 0.900. The most appropriate programs are seaweed cultivation (34.0% and restoration (23.4%.

  4. Repeated Causal Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagmayer, York; Meder, Bjorn

    2013-01-01

    Many of our decisions refer to actions that have a causal impact on the external environment. Such actions may not only allow for the mere learning of expected values or utilities but also for acquiring knowledge about the causal structure of our world. We used a repeated decision-making paradigm to examine what kind of knowledge people acquire in…

  5. Viscous causal cosmologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Novello, M.; Salim, J.M.; Torres, J.; Oliveira, H.P. de

    1989-01-01

    A set of spatially homogeneous and isotropic cosmological geometries generated by a class of non-perfect is investigated fluids. The irreversibility if this system is studied in the context of causal thermodynamics which provides a useful mechanism to conform to the non-violation of the causal principle. (author) [pt

  6. Causal Analysis After Haavelmo

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heckman, James; Pinto, Rodrigo

    2014-01-01

    Haavelmo's seminal 1943 and 1944 papers are the first rigorous treatment of causality. In them, he distinguished the definition of causal parameters from their identification. He showed that causal parameters are defined using hypothetical models that assign variation to some of the inputs determining outcomes while holding all other inputs fixed. He thus formalized and made operational Marshall's (1890) ceteris paribus analysis. We embed Haavelmo's framework into the recursive framework of Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) used in one influential recent approach to causality (Pearl, 2000) and in the related literature on Bayesian nets (Lauritzen, 1996). We compare the simplicity of an analysis of causality based on Haavelmo's methodology with the complex and nonintuitive approach used in the causal literature of DAGs—the “do-calculus” of Pearl (2009). We discuss the severe limitations of DAGs and in particular of the do-calculus of Pearl in securing identification of economic models. We extend our framework to consider models for simultaneous causality, a central contribution of Haavelmo. In general cases, DAGs cannot be used to analyze models for simultaneous causality, but Haavelmo's approach naturally generalizes to cover them. PMID:25729123

  7. Causality in Classical Electrodynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Savage, Craig

    2012-01-01

    Causality in electrodynamics is a subject of some confusion, especially regarding the application of Faraday's law and the Ampere-Maxwell law. This has led to the suggestion that we should not teach students that electric and magnetic fields can cause each other, but rather focus on charges and currents as the causal agents. In this paper I argue…

  8. Causality in Europeanization Research

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lynggaard, Kennet

    2012-01-01

    to develop discursive institutional analytical frameworks and something that comes close to the formulation of hypothesis on the effects of European Union (EU) policies and institutions on domestic change. Even if these efforts so far do not necessarily amount to substantive theories or claims of causality......Discourse analysis as a methodology is perhaps not readily associated with substantive causality claims. At the same time the study of discourses is very much the study of conceptions of causal relations among a set, or sets, of agents. Within Europeanization research we have seen endeavours......, it suggests that discourse analysis and the study of causality are by no means opposites. The study of Europeanization discourses may even be seen as an essential step in the move towards claims of causality in Europeanization research. This chapter deals with the question of how we may move from the study...

  9. Agency, time and causality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas eWidlok

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Cognitive Scientists interested in causal cognition increasingly search for evidence from non-WEIRD people but find only very few cross-cultural studies that specifically target causal cognition. This article suggests how information about causality can be retrieved from ethnographic monographs, specifically from ethnographies that discuss agency and concepts of time. Many apparent cultural differences with regard to causal cognition dissolve when cultural extensions of agency and personhood to non-humans are taken into account. At the same time considerable variability remains when we include notions of time, linearity and sequence. The article focuses on ethnographic case studies from Africa but provides a more general perspective on the role of ethnography in research on the diversity and universality of causal cognition.

  10. Non-Causal Computation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ämin Baumeler

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Computation models such as circuits describe sequences of computation steps that are carried out one after the other. In other words, algorithm design is traditionally subject to the restriction imposed by a fixed causal order. We address a novel computing paradigm beyond quantum computing, replacing this assumption by mere logical consistency: We study non-causal circuits, where a fixed time structure within a gate is locally assumed whilst the global causal structure between the gates is dropped. We present examples of logically consistent non-causal circuits outperforming all causal ones; they imply that suppressing loops entirely is more restrictive than just avoiding the contradictions they can give rise to. That fact is already known for correlations as well as for communication, and we here extend it to computation.

  11. How multiple causes combine: independence constraints on causal inference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liljeholm, Mimi

    2015-01-01

    According to the causal power view, two core constraints-that causes occur independently (i.e., no confounding) and influence their effects independently-serve as boundary conditions for causal induction. This study investigated how violations of these constraints modulate uncertainty about the existence and strength of a causal relationship. Participants were presented with pairs of candidate causes that were either confounded or not, and that either interacted or exerted their influences independently. Consistent with the causal power view, uncertainty about the existence and strength of causal relationships was greater when causes were confounded or interacted than when unconfounded and acting independently. An elemental Bayesian causal model captured differences in uncertainty due to confounding but not those due to an interaction. Implications of distinct sources of uncertainty for the selection of contingency information and causal generalization are discussed.

  12. Identified Phases in the Building and Maintaining of Positive Teacher-Student Relationships

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newberry, Melissa

    2010-01-01

    Teacher-student relationships are accepted as influential but the dynamics of those relationships are not well understood, especially with difficult students. A series of interviews were combined with classroom observations and written reflections to understand in what ways a teacher negotiated her relationship with a behaviorally challenging…

  13. Performing drought indices to identify the relationship between agricultural losses and drought events in Spain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peña Gallardo, Marina; Serrano, Sergio Martín Vicente; Portugués Santiago, Beguería; Burguera Miquel, Tomás

    2017-04-01

    Drought leads to crop failures reducing the productivity. For this reason, the need of appropriate tool for recognize dry periods and evaluate the impact of drought on crop production is important. In this study, we provide an assessment of the relationship between drought episodes and crop failures in Spain as one of the direct consequences of drought is the diminishing of crop yields. First, different drought indices [the Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI); the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI); the self-calibrated Palmer Moisture Anomaly Index (Z-Index), the self-calibrated Crop Moisture Index (CMI) and the Standardized Palmer Drought Index (SPDI)] have been calculated at different time scales in order to identify the dry events occurred in Spain and determine the duration and intensity of each event. Second, the drought episodes have been correlated with crop production estimated and final crop production data provided by the Spanish Crop Insurance System for the available period from 1995 to 2014 at the municipal spatial scale, with the purpose of knowing if the characteristics of the drought episodes are reflected on the agricultural losses. The analysis has been carried out in particular for two types of crop, wheat and barley. The results indicate the existence of an agreement between the most important drought events in Spain and the response of the crop productions and the proportion of hectare insurance. Nevertheless, this agreement vary depending on the drought index applied. Authors found a higher competence of the drought indices calculated at different time scales (SPEI, SPI and SPDI) identifying the begging and end of the drought events and the correspondence with the crop failures.

  14. The next step for stress research in primates: To identify relationships between glucocorticoid secretion and fitness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beehner, Jacinta C; Bergman, Thore J

    2017-05-01

    Glucocorticoids are hormones that mediate the energetic demands that accompany environmental challenges. It is therefore not surprising that these metabolic hormones have come to dominate endocrine research on the health and fitness of wild populations. Yet, several problems have been identified in the vertebrate research that also apply to the non-human primate research. First, glucocorticoids should not be used as a proxy for fitness (unless a link has previously been established between glucocorticoids and fitness for a particular population). Second, stress research in behavioral ecology has been overly focused on "chronic stress" despite little evidence that chronic stress hampers fitness in wild animals. Third, research effort has been disproportionately focused on the causes of glucocorticoid variation rather than the fitness consequences. With these problems in mind, we have three objectives for this review. We describe the conceptual framework behind the "stress concept", emphasizing that high glucocorticoids do not necessarily indicate a stress response, and that a stress response does not necessarily indicate an animal is in poor health. Then, we conduct a comprehensive review of all studies on "stress" in wild primates, including any study that examined environmental factors, the stress response, and/or fitness (or proxies for fitness). Remarkably, not a single primate study establishes a connection between all three. Finally, we provide several recommendations for future research in the field of primate behavioral endocrinology, primarily the need to move beyond identifying the factors that cause glucocorticoid secretion to additionally focus on the relationship between glucocorticoids and fitness. We believe that this is an important next step for research on stress physiology in primates. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. BIBLIOGRAPHIC STUDY IN RISK MANAGEMENT AIMED TO IDENTIFY MORE REFERENCED TOOLS, METHODS AND RELATIONSHIPS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alamir Costa Louro

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this paper is to identify and discuss trends in tools and methods used in project risk management and its relationship to other matters, using current scientific articles. The focus isn´t in understanding how they work in technical terms, but think about the possibilities of deepening in academic studies, including making several suggestions for future research. Adjacent to the article there is a discussion about an alleged "one best way" imperative normativity approach. It was answered the following research questions: what subjects and theories are related to project risk management tools and methods? The first contribution is related to the importance of the academic Chris Chapman as an author who has more published and also more referenced in the survey. There are several contributions on various subjects such as: the perception of the existence of many conceptual papers; papers about construction industry, problematization of contracts according to agency theory, IT and ERPs issues. Other contributions came from the bibliometric method that brings lot of consolidated information about terms, topics, authors, references, periods and, of course, methods and tools about Project Risk Management.

  16. Data Mining for Identifying Novel Associations and Temporal Relationships with Charcot Foot

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael E. Munson

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. Charcot foot is a rare and devastating complication of diabetes. While some risk factors are known, debate continues regarding etiology. Elucidating other associated disorders and their temporal occurrence could lead to a better understanding of its pathogenesis. We applied a large data mining approach to Charcot foot for elucidating novel associations. Methods. We conducted an association analysis using ICD-9 diagnosis codes for every patient in our health system (n=1.6 million with 41.2 million time-stamped ICD-9 codes. For the current analysis, we focused on the 388 patients with Charcot foot (ICD-9 713.5. Results. We found 710 associations, 676 (95.2% of which had a P value for the association less than 1.0×10−5 and 603 (84.9% of which had an odds ratio > 5.0. There were 111 (15.6% associations with a significant temporal relationship P<1.0×10−3. The three novel associations with the strongest temporal component were cardiac dysrhythmia, pulmonary eosinophilia, and volume depletion disorder. Conclusion. We identified novel associations with Charcot foot in the context of pathogenesis models that include neurotrophic, neurovascular, and microtraumatic factors mediated through inflammatory cytokines. Future work should focus on confirmatory analyses. These novel areas of investigation could lead to prevention or earlier diagnosis.

  17. Entanglement, holography and causal diamonds

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Boer, Jan; Haehl, Felix M.; Heller, Michal P.; Myers, Robert C.

    2016-08-01

    We argue that the degrees of freedom in a d-dimensional CFT can be reorganized in an insightful way by studying observables on the moduli space of causal diamonds (or equivalently, the space of pairs of timelike separated points). This 2 d-dimensional space naturally captures some of the fundamental nonlocality and causal structure inherent in the entanglement of CFT states. For any primary CFT operator, we construct an observable on this space, which is defined by smearing the associated one-point function over causal diamonds. Known examples of such quantities are the entanglement entropy of vacuum excitations and its higher spin generalizations. We show that in holographic CFTs, these observables are given by suitably defined integrals of dual bulk fields over the corresponding Ryu-Takayanagi minimal surfaces. Furthermore, we explain connections to the operator product expansion and the first law of entanglemententropy from this unifying point of view. We demonstrate that for small perturbations of the vacuum, our observables obey linear two-derivative equations of motion on the space of causal diamonds. In two dimensions, the latter is given by a product of two copies of a two-dimensional de Sitter space. For a class of universal states, we show that the entanglement entropy and its spin-three generalization obey nonlinear equations of motion with local interactions on this moduli space, which can be identified with Liouville and Toda equations, respectively. This suggests the possibility of extending the definition of our new observables beyond the linear level more generally and in such a way that they give rise to new dynamically interacting theories on the moduli space of causal diamonds. Various challenges one has to face in order to implement this idea are discussed.

  18. Entanglement, holography and causal diamonds

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boer, Jan de [Institute of Physics, Universiteit van Amsterdam,Science Park 904, 1090 GL Amsterdam (Netherlands); Haehl, Felix M. [Centre for Particle Theory & Department of Mathematical Sciences, Durham University,South Road, Durham DH1 3LE (United Kingdom); Heller, Michal P.; Myers, Robert C. [Perimeter Institute for Theoretical Physics,31 Caroline Street North, Waterloo, Ontario N2L 2Y5 (Canada)

    2016-08-29

    We argue that the degrees of freedom in a d-dimensional CFT can be re-organized in an insightful way by studying observables on the moduli space of causal diamonds (or equivalently, the space of pairs of timelike separated points). This 2d-dimensional space naturally captures some of the fundamental nonlocality and causal structure inherent in the entanglement of CFT states. For any primary CFT operator, we construct an observable on this space, which is defined by smearing the associated one-point function over causal diamonds. Known examples of such quantities are the entanglement entropy of vacuum excitations and its higher spin generalizations. We show that in holographic CFTs, these observables are given by suitably defined integrals of dual bulk fields over the corresponding Ryu-Takayanagi minimal surfaces. Furthermore, we explain connections to the operator product expansion and the first law of entanglement entropy from this unifying point of view. We demonstrate that for small perturbations of the vacuum, our observables obey linear two-derivative equations of motion on the space of causal diamonds. In two dimensions, the latter is given by a product of two copies of a two-dimensional de Sitter space. For a class of universal states, we show that the entanglement entropy and its spin-three generalization obey nonlinear equations of motion with local interactions on this moduli space, which can be identified with Liouville and Toda equations, respectively. This suggests the possibility of extending the definition of our new observables beyond the linear level more generally and in such a way that they give rise to new dynamically interacting theories on the moduli space of causal diamonds. Various challenges one has to face in order to implement this idea are discussed.

  19. Causality re-established.

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Ariano, Giacomo Mauro

    2018-07-13

    Causality has never gained the status of a 'law' or 'principle' in physics. Some recent literature has even popularized the false idea that causality is a notion that should be banned from theory. Such misconception relies on an alleged universality of the reversibility of the laws of physics, based either on the determinism of classical theory, or on the multiverse interpretation of quantum theory, in both cases motivated by mere interpretational requirements for realism of the theory. Here, I will show that a properly defined unambiguous notion of causality is a theorem of quantum theory, which is also a falsifiable proposition of the theory. Such a notion of causality appeared in the literature within the framework of operational probabilistic theories. It is a genuinely theoretical notion, corresponding to establishing a definite partial order among events, in the same way as we do by using the future causal cone on Minkowski space. The notion of causality is logically completely independent of the misidentified concept of 'determinism', and, being a consequence of quantum theory, is ubiquitous in physics. In addition, as classical theory can be regarded as a restriction of quantum theory, causality holds also in the classical case, although the determinism of the theory trivializes it. I then conclude by arguing that causality naturally establishes an arrow of time. This implies that the scenario of the 'block Universe' and the connected 'past hypothesis' are incompatible with causality, and thus with quantum theory: they are both doomed to remain mere interpretations and, as such, are not falsifiable, similar to the hypothesis of 'super-determinism'.This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Foundations of quantum mechanics and their impact on contemporary society'. © 2018 The Author(s).

  20. They Work Together to Roar: Kindergartners' Understanding of an Interactive Causal Task

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solis, S. Lynneth; Grotzer, Tina A.

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate kindergartners' exploration of interactive causality during their play with a pair of toy sound blocks. Interactive causality refers to a type of causal pattern in which two entities interact to produce a causal force, as in particle attraction and symbiotic relationships. Despite being prevalent in nature,…

  1. Identifying and Evaluating the Relationships that Control a Land Surface Model's Hydrological Behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koster, Randal D.; Mahanama, Sarith P.

    2012-01-01

    The inherent soil moisture-evaporation relationships used in today 's land surface models (LSMs) arguably reflect a lot of guesswork given the lack of contemporaneous evaporation and soil moisture observations at the spatial scales represented by regional and global models. The inherent soil moisture-runoff relationships used in the LSMs are also of uncertain accuracy. Evaluating these relationships is difficult but crucial given that they have a major impact on how the land component contributes to hydrological and meteorological variability within the climate system. The relationships, it turns out, can be examined efficiently and effectively with a simple water balance model framework. The simple water balance model, driven with multi-decadal observations covering the conterminous United States, shows how different prescribed relationships lead to different manifestations of hydrological variability, some of which can be compared directly to observations. Through the testing of a wide suite of relationships, the simple model provides estimates for the underlying relationships that operate in nature and that should be operating in LSMs. We examine the relationships currently used in a number of different LSMs in the context of the simple water balance model results and make recommendations for potential first-order improvements to these LSMs.

  2. Mixed Causal-Noncausal Autoregressions with Strictly Exogenous Regressors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hecq, Alain; Issler, J.V.; Telg, Sean

    2017-01-01

    The mixed autoregressive causal-noncausal model (MAR) has been proposed to estimate economic relationships involving explosive roots in their autoregressive part, as they have stationary forward solutions. In previous work, possible exogenous variables in economic relationships are substituted into

  3. Selecting appropriate cases when tracing causal mechanisms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Beach, Derek; Pedersen, Rasmus Brun

    2016-01-01

    The last decade has witnessed resurgence in the interest in studying the causal mechanisms linking causes and outcomes in the social sciences. This article explores the overlooked implications for case selection when tracing mechanisms using in-depth case studies. Our argument is that existing case...... selection guidelines are appropriate for research aimed at making cross-case claims about causal relationships, where case selection is primarily used to control for other causes. However, existing guidelines are not in alignment with case-based research that aims to trace mechanisms, where the goal...... is to unpack the causal mechanism between X and Y, enabling causal inferences to be made because empirical evidence is provided for how the mechanism actually operated in a particular case. The in-depth, within-case tracing of how mechanisms operate in particular cases produces what can be termed mechanistic...

  4. Tachyons and causal paradoxes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maund, J.B.

    1979-01-01

    Although the existence of tachyons is not ruled out by special relativity, it appears that causal paradoxes will arise if there are tachyons. The usual solutions to these paradoxes employ some form of the reinterpretation principle. In this paper it is argued first that, the principle is incoherent, second, that even if it is not, some causal paradoxes remain, and third, the most plausible ''solution,'' which appeals to boundary conditions of the universe, will conflict with special relativity

  5. Dynamics and causality constraints

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sousa, Manoelito M. de

    2001-04-01

    The physical meaning and the geometrical interpretation of causality implementation in classical field theories are discussed. Causality in field theory are kinematical constraints dynamically implemented via solutions of the field equation, but in a limit of zero-distance from the field sources part of these constraints carries a dynamical content that explains old problems of classical electrodynamics away with deep implications to the nature of physicals interactions. (author)

  6. Is there a Causal Effect of High School Math on Labor Market Outcomes?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Joensen, E. Juanna Schröter; Nielsen, Helena Skyt

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, we exploit a high school pilot scheme to identify the causal effect of advanced high school math on labor market outcomes. The pilot scheme reduced the costs of choosing advanced math because it allowed for a more flexible combination of math with other courses. We find clear...... evidence of a causal relationship between math and earnings for students who are induced to choose math after being exposed to the pilot scheme. The effect partly stems from the fact that these students end up with a higher education....

  7. Expert elicitation on ultrafine particles: likelihood of health effects and causal pathways

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brunekreef Bert

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Exposure to fine ambient particulate matter (PM has consistently been associated with increased morbidity and mortality. The relationship between exposure to ultrafine particles (UFP and health effects is less firmly established. If UFP cause health effects independently from coarser fractions, this could affect health impact assessment of air pollution, which would possibly lead to alternative policy options to be considered to reduce the disease burden of PM. Therefore, we organized an expert elicitation workshop to assess the evidence for a causal relationship between exposure to UFP and health endpoints. Methods An expert elicitation on the health effects of ambient ultrafine particle exposure was carried out, focusing on: 1 the likelihood of causal relationships with key health endpoints, and 2 the likelihood of potential causal pathways for cardiac events. Based on a systematic peer-nomination procedure, fourteen European experts (epidemiologists, toxicologists and clinicians were selected, of whom twelve attended. They were provided with a briefing book containing key literature. After a group discussion, individual expert judgments in the form of ratings of the likelihood of causal relationships and pathways were obtained using a confidence scheme adapted from the one used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Results The likelihood of an independent causal relationship between increased short-term UFP exposure and increased all-cause mortality, hospital admissions for cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, aggravation of asthma symptoms and lung function decrements was rated medium to high by most experts. The likelihood for long-term UFP exposure to be causally related to all cause mortality, cardiovascular and respiratory morbidity and lung cancer was rated slightly lower, mostly medium. The experts rated the likelihood of each of the six identified possible causal pathways separately. Out of these

  8. A quantum causal discovery algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giarmatzi, Christina; Costa, Fabio

    2018-03-01

    Finding a causal model for a set of classical variables is now a well-established task—but what about the quantum equivalent? Even the notion of a quantum causal model is controversial. Here, we present a causal discovery algorithm for quantum systems. The input to the algorithm is a process matrix describing correlations between quantum events. Its output consists of different levels of information about the underlying causal model. Our algorithm determines whether the process is causally ordered by grouping the events into causally ordered non-signaling sets. It detects if all relevant common causes are included in the process, which we label Markovian, or alternatively if some causal relations are mediated through some external memory. For a Markovian process, it outputs a causal model, namely the causal relations and the corresponding mechanisms, represented as quantum states and channels. Our algorithm opens the route to more general quantum causal discovery methods.

  9. Identifying and Exploring Relationships between Contextual Situations and Ordinary Differential Equations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Camacho-Machín, M.; Guerrero-Ortiz, C.

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to present and discuss some of the evidence regarding the resources that students use when they establish relationships between a contextual situation and an ordinary differential equation (ODE). We present research results obtained from work by seven students in a graduate level course in mathematics education, where they…

  10. Divorce Transitions: Identifying Risk and Promoting Resilience for Children and Their Parental Relationships.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnes, Gill Gorrell

    1999-01-01

    Discusses qualitative research linked to clinical work relating to some of the short-term effects of divorce on children within a British perspective. Describes clinical intervention into family relationships in divorcing and post-divorce families and suggests some high-risk issues for children. Some interactions that may promote resilience in…

  11. Granger Causality Testing with Intensive Longitudinal Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molenaar, Peter C M

    2018-06-01

    The availability of intensive longitudinal data obtained by means of ambulatory assessment opens up new prospects for prevention research in that it allows the derivation of subject-specific dynamic networks of interacting variables by means of vector autoregressive (VAR) modeling. The dynamic networks thus obtained can be subjected to Granger causality testing in order to identify causal relations among the observed time-dependent variables. VARs have two equivalent representations: standard and structural. Results obtained with Granger causality testing depend upon which representation is chosen, yet no criteria exist on which this important choice can be based. A new equivalent representation is introduced called hybrid VARs with which the best representation can be chosen in a data-driven way. Partial directed coherence, a frequency-domain statistic for Granger causality testing, is shown to perform optimally when based on hybrid VARs. An application to real data is provided.

  12. Causal diagrams in systems epidemiology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joffe Michael

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Methods of diagrammatic modelling have been greatly developed in the past two decades. Outside the context of infectious diseases, systematic use of diagrams in epidemiology has been mainly confined to the analysis of a single link: that between a disease outcome and its proximal determinant(s. Transmitted causes ("causes of causes" tend not to be systematically analysed. The infectious disease epidemiology modelling tradition models the human population in its environment, typically with the exposure-health relationship and the determinants of exposure being considered at individual and group/ecological levels, respectively. Some properties of the resulting systems are quite general, and are seen in unrelated contexts such as biochemical pathways. Confining analysis to a single link misses the opportunity to discover such properties. The structure of a causal diagram is derived from knowledge about how the world works, as well as from statistical evidence. A single diagram can be used to characterise a whole research area, not just a single analysis - although this depends on the degree of consistency of the causal relationships between different populations - and can therefore be used to integrate multiple datasets. Additional advantages of system-wide models include: the use of instrumental variables - now emerging as an important technique in epidemiology in the context of mendelian randomisation, but under-used in the exploitation of "natural experiments"; the explicit use of change models, which have advantages with respect to inferring causation; and in the detection and elucidation of feedback.

  13. Causal diagrams in systems epidemiology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joffe, Michael; Gambhir, Manoj; Chadeau-Hyam, Marc; Vineis, Paolo

    2012-03-19

    Methods of diagrammatic modelling have been greatly developed in the past two decades. Outside the context of infectious diseases, systematic use of diagrams in epidemiology has been mainly confined to the analysis of a single link: that between a disease outcome and its proximal determinant(s). Transmitted causes ("causes of causes") tend not to be systematically analysed.The infectious disease epidemiology modelling tradition models the human population in its environment, typically with the exposure-health relationship and the determinants of exposure being considered at individual and group/ecological levels, respectively. Some properties of the resulting systems are quite general, and are seen in unrelated contexts such as biochemical pathways. Confining analysis to a single link misses the opportunity to discover such properties.The structure of a causal diagram is derived from knowledge about how the world works, as well as from statistical evidence. A single diagram can be used to characterise a whole research area, not just a single analysis - although this depends on the degree of consistency of the causal relationships between different populations - and can therefore be used to integrate multiple datasets.Additional advantages of system-wide models include: the use of instrumental variables - now emerging as an important technique in epidemiology in the context of mendelian randomisation, but under-used in the exploitation of "natural experiments"; the explicit use of change models, which have advantages with respect to inferring causation; and in the detection and elucidation of feedback.

  14. Causal symmetric spaces

    CERN Document Server

    Olafsson, Gestur; Helgason, Sigurdur

    1996-01-01

    This book is intended to introduce researchers and graduate students to the concepts of causal symmetric spaces. To date, results of recent studies considered standard by specialists have not been widely published. This book seeks to bring this information to students and researchers in geometry and analysis on causal symmetric spaces.Includes the newest results in harmonic analysis including Spherical functions on ordered symmetric space and the holmorphic discrete series and Hardy spaces on compactly casual symmetric spacesDeals with the infinitesimal situation, coverings of symmetric spaces, classification of causal symmetric pairs and invariant cone fieldsPresents basic geometric properties of semi-simple symmetric spacesIncludes appendices on Lie algebras and Lie groups, Bounded symmetric domains (Cayley transforms), Antiholomorphic Involutions on Bounded Domains and Para-Hermitian Symmetric Spaces

  15. Causal inference in econometrics

    CERN Document Server

    Kreinovich, Vladik; Sriboonchitta, Songsak

    2016-01-01

    This book is devoted to the analysis of causal inference which is one of the most difficult tasks in data analysis: when two phenomena are observed to be related, it is often difficult to decide whether one of them causally influences the other one, or whether these two phenomena have a common cause. This analysis is the main focus of this volume. To get a good understanding of the causal inference, it is important to have models of economic phenomena which are as accurate as possible. Because of this need, this volume also contains papers that use non-traditional economic models, such as fuzzy models and models obtained by using neural networks and data mining techniques. It also contains papers that apply different econometric models to analyze real-life economic dependencies.

  16. The Relationship between Race and Students' Identified Career Role Models and Perceived Role Model Influence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karunanayake, Danesh; Nauta, Margaret M.

    2004-01-01

    The authors examined whether college students' race was related to the modal race of their identified career role models, the number of identified career role models, and their perceived influence from such models. Consistent with A. Bandura's (1977, 1986) social learning theory, students tended to have role models whose race was the same as…

  17. Free vs. Faithful – Towards Identifying the Relationship between Academic and Professional Criteria for Legal Translation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mette Hjort-Pedersen

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available For many years translation theorists have discussed the degree of translational freedom a legal translator has in rendering the meaning of a legal source text in a translation. Some believe that in order to achieve the communicative purpose, legal translators should focus on readability and bias their translation towards the target language community. Others insist that because of the special nature of legal texts and the sometimes binding force of legal translations, translators should stay as close to the source text as possible, i.e., bias their translation towards the source language community. But what is the relationship between these ‘academic’ observations and the way professional users and producers, i.e., lawyers and translators, think of legal translation? This article examines how actors on the Danish legal translation market view translational manoeuvres that result in a more or less close relationship between a legal source text and its translation, and also the translator’s power to decide what the nature of this relationship should be and how it should manifest itself in the translation.

  18. Exploring Causal Models of Educational Achievement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parkerson, Jo Ann; And Others

    1984-01-01

    This article evaluates five causal model of educational productivity applied to learning science in a sample of 882 fifth through eighth graders. Each model explores the relationship between achievement and a combination of eight constructs: home environment, peer group, media, ability, social environment, time on task, motivation, and…

  19. Causal Measurement Models: Can Criticism Stimulate Clarification?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Markus, Keith A.

    2016-01-01

    In their 2016 work, Aguirre-Urreta et al. provided a contribution to the literature on causal measurement models that enhances clarity and stimulates further thinking. Aguirre-Urreta et al. presented a form of statistical identity involving mapping onto the portion of the parameter space involving the nomological net, relationships between the…

  20. Maximally causal quantum mechanics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roy, S.M.

    1998-01-01

    We present a new causal quantum mechanics in one and two dimensions developed recently at TIFR by this author and V. Singh. In this theory both position and momentum for a system point have Hamiltonian evolution in such a way that the ensemble of system points leads to position and momentum probability densities agreeing exactly with ordinary quantum mechanics. (author)

  1. Causality in demand

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Max; Jensen, Frank; Setälä, Jari

    2011-01-01

    to fish demand. On the German market for farmed trout and substitutes, it is found that supply sources, i.e. aquaculture and fishery, are not the only determinant of causality. Storing, tightness of management and aggregation level of integrated markets might also be important. The methodological...

  2. Causality and Free Will

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Hvorecký, Juraj

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 19, Supp.2 (2012), s. 64-69 ISSN 1335-0668 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GAP401/12/0833 Institutional support: RVO:67985955 Keywords : conciousness * free will * determinism * causality Subject RIV: AA - Philosophy ; Religion

  3. Contribution of WUSCHEL-related homeobox (WOX genes to identify the phylogenetic relationships among Petunia species

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Lúcia Anversa Segatto

    Full Text Available Abstract Developmental genes are believed to contribute to major changes during plant evolution, from infrageneric to higher levels. Due to their putative high sequence conservation, developmental genes are rarely used as molecular markers, and few studies including these sequences at low taxonomic levels exist. WUSCHEL-related homeobox genes (WOX are transcription factors exclusively present in plants and are involved in developmental processes. In this study, we characterized the infrageneric genetic variation of Petunia WOX genes. We obtained phylogenetic relationships consistent with other phylogenies based on nuclear markers, but with higher statistical support, resolution in terminals, and compatibility with flower morphological changes.

  4. Causal inference in biology networks with integrated belief propagation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Rui; Karr, Jonathan R; Schadt, Eric E

    2015-01-01

    Inferring causal relationships among molecular and higher order phenotypes is a critical step in elucidating the complexity of living systems. Here we propose a novel method for inferring causality that is no longer constrained by the conditional dependency arguments that limit the ability of statistical causal inference methods to resolve causal relationships within sets of graphical models that are Markov equivalent. Our method utilizes Bayesian belief propagation to infer the responses of perturbation events on molecular traits given a hypothesized graph structure. A distance measure between the inferred response distribution and the observed data is defined to assess the 'fitness' of the hypothesized causal relationships. To test our algorithm, we infer causal relationships within equivalence classes of gene networks in which the form of the functional interactions that are possible are assumed to be nonlinear, given synthetic microarray and RNA sequencing data. We also apply our method to infer causality in real metabolic network with v-structure and feedback loop. We show that our method can recapitulate the causal structure and recover the feedback loop only from steady-state data which conventional method cannot.

  5. Causal pathways between substance use disorders and personality pathology

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verheul, R.; van den Brink, W.

    2005-01-01

    A high co-occurrence between personality and substance use disorders suggests causal relationships between these conditions. Most empirical evidence strongly supports causal pathways in which (pathological) personality traits contribute to the development of a substance use disorder (i.e., primary

  6. Ends, Principles, and Causal Explanation in Educational Justice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dum, Jenn

    2017-01-01

    Many principles characterize educational justice in terms of the relationship between educational inputs, outputs and distributive standards. Such principles depend upon the "causal pathway view" of education. It is implicit in this view that the causally effective aspects of education can be understood as separate from the normative…

  7. Using aflp to identify genetic relationships in cassia species from Thailand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sihanat, A.; Rungsihirunrat, K.; Chareonsap, P. P.; Ruangrungsi, N.

    2017-01-01

    Several species of Cassia are used in Thai folk medicine as a laxative and a treatment for skin infections. However, the taxonomy of the GenusCassia is quite complex and intriguing. Thus, the correct identification of the species of this genus is necessary for efficacy and safety. The phylogenetic relationships among the 16 species of Cassiagenus existing in Thailand were evaluated using Amplified Fragment Length Polymorphism (AFLP) technique. Combinations of 70 primers were screened and eleven primer combinations produced a total of 849 distinct and reproducible bands ranging from 60 to 100 bands with an average of 77.18 bands per primer combination. The genetic distances were calculated based on the AFLP bands that had been amplified using the eleven primer combinations. The similarity indices (SI) ranged from 0.25 to 0.78. The dendrogram was created using the Unweighted Pair Group Method of the Arithmetic Average (UPGMA) and the genotypes were divided into two major groups. The results indicate that the phylogenetic relationships are associated with the morphological characterization. In conclusion, an AFLP marker could be an efficient and reliable tool for the identification of a Cassia species. (author)

  8. Causality violation, gravitational shockwaves and UV completion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hollowood, Timothy J.; Shore, Graham M. [Department of Physics, Swansea University,Swansea, SA2 8PP (United Kingdom)

    2016-03-18

    The effective actions describing the low-energy dynamics of QFTs involving gravity generically exhibit causality violations. These may take the form of superluminal propagation or Shapiro time advances and allow the construction of “time machines”, i.e. spacetimes admitting closed non-spacelike curves. Here, we discuss critically whether such causality violations may be used as a criterion to identify unphysical effective actions or whether, and how, causality problems may be resolved by embedding the action in a fundamental, UV complete QFT. We study in detail the case of photon scattering in an Aichelburg-Sexl gravitational shockwave background and calculate the phase shifts in QED for all energies, demonstrating their smooth interpolation from the causality-violating effective action values at low-energy to their manifestly causal high-energy limits. At low energies, these phase shifts may be interpreted as backwards-in-time coordinate jumps as the photon encounters the shock wavefront, and we illustrate how the resulting causality problems emerge and are resolved in a two-shockwave time machine scenario. The implications of our results for ultra-high (Planck) energy scattering, in which graviton exchange is modelled by the shockwave background, are highlighted.

  9. 7 CFR 1900.153 - Identifying and reporting an employee relationship.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    .... 1900.153 Section 1900.153 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) RURAL HOUSING SERVICE, RURAL BUSINESS-COOPERATIVE SERVICE, RURAL UTILITIES SERVICE, AND FARM SERVICE AGENCY... Under Public Law 103-354 Assistance to Employees, Relatives, and Associates § 1900.153 Identifying and...

  10. Granger Causality and Transfer Entropy Are Equivalent for Gaussian Variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnett, Lionel; Barrett, Adam B.; Seth, Anil K.

    2009-12-01

    Granger causality is a statistical notion of causal influence based on prediction via vector autoregression. Developed originally in the field of econometrics, it has since found application in a broader arena, particularly in neuroscience. More recently transfer entropy, an information-theoretic measure of time-directed information transfer between jointly dependent processes, has gained traction in a similarly wide field. While it has been recognized that the two concepts must be related, the exact relationship has until now not been formally described. Here we show that for Gaussian variables, Granger causality and transfer entropy are entirely equivalent, thus bridging autoregressive and information-theoretic approaches to data-driven causal inference.

  11. Study of causal relationships among indicators of academic performance in the freshman year of Computer Science by using modal implicative analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Larisa Zamora-Matamoros

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The Statistical Implicative Analysis (SIA is a method of non-symmetrical analysis of data whose main objective is the structuring of data, interrelating individuals and variables, the extraction of inductive rules among the variables and from their contingency, the explanation and in consequence a certain prediction in different knowledge branches. The SIA holds two techniques of analysis of data, the cohesive analysis and the implicative analysis, along with the classificatory or similarity analysis. The objective of the present research is to reveal possible similarity, propensity and cohesion relationships among the academic results of students coming from high schools that enter to Computer Science career and the results that they show in undergraduate courses related to Mathematics and Programming, which they receive in the first year of the mentioned career. The gathered data were processed using the software SIASI for modal data.

  12. Divorce transitions: identifying risk and promoting resilience for children and their parental relationships.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnes, G G

    1999-10-01

    This paper gives an account of qualitative research linked to clinical work relating to some of the short-term effects of divorce on children within a British perspective. The transitions that accompany divorce and family reordering are shown by many studies in the United States, Australia, and New Zealand as well as in the United Kingdom to have stressful effects for children that can lead to long-term negative outcomes. Other studies have focused on the differential social and family factors that may contribute to the "differences that make a difference" to whether divorce has harmful effects on children. This paper describes clinical intervention into family relationships in divorcing and postdivorce families and suggests some high-risk issues for children. The focus of the work is one promoting long-term connections between parents and children in reordered+ families. Some interactions that may promote resilience in children as well as in their parents are alluded to briefly.

  13. Causality and subjectivity in discourse : The meaning and use of causal connectives in spontaneous conversation, chat interactions and written text

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sanders, T.J.M.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/075243911; Spooren, W.P.M.S.

    Many languages of the world have connectives to express causal relations at the discourse level. Often, language users systematically prefer one lexical item (because) over another (even highly similar) one (since) to express a causal relationship. Such choices provide a window on speakers'

  14. Probabilistic causality and radiogenic cancers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Groeer, P.G.

    1986-01-01

    A review and scrutiny of the literature on probability and probabilistic causality shows that it is possible under certain assumptions to estimate the probability that a certain type of cancer diagnosed in an individual exposed to radiation prior to diagnosis was caused by this exposure. Diagnosis of this causal relationship like diagnosis of any disease - malignant or not - requires always some subjective judgments by the diagnostician. It is, therefore, illusory to believe that tables based on actuarial data can provide objective estimates of the chance that a cancer diagnosed in an individual is radiogenic. It is argued that such tables can only provide a base from which the diagnostician(s) deviate in one direction or the other according to his (their) individual (consensual) judgment. Acceptance of a physician's diagnostic judgment by patients is commonplace. Similar widespread acceptance of expert judgment by claimants in radiation compensation cases does presently not exist. Judicious use of the present radioepidemiological tables prepared by the Working Group of the National Institutes of Health or of updated future versions of similar tables may improve the situation. 20 references

  15. Optimal causal inference: estimating stored information and approximating causal architecture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Still, Susanne; Crutchfield, James P; Ellison, Christopher J

    2010-09-01

    We introduce an approach to inferring the causal architecture of stochastic dynamical systems that extends rate-distortion theory to use causal shielding--a natural principle of learning. We study two distinct cases of causal inference: optimal causal filtering and optimal causal estimation. Filtering corresponds to the ideal case in which the probability distribution of measurement sequences is known, giving a principled method to approximate a system's causal structure at a desired level of representation. We show that in the limit in which a model-complexity constraint is relaxed, filtering finds the exact causal architecture of a stochastic dynamical system, known as the causal-state partition. From this, one can estimate the amount of historical information the process stores. More generally, causal filtering finds a graded model-complexity hierarchy of approximations to the causal architecture. Abrupt changes in the hierarchy, as a function of approximation, capture distinct scales of structural organization. For nonideal cases with finite data, we show how the correct number of the underlying causal states can be found by optimal causal estimation. A previously derived model-complexity control term allows us to correct for the effect of statistical fluctuations in probability estimates and thereby avoid overfitting.

  16. Illness causal beliefs in Turkish immigrants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Klimidis Steven

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background People hold a wide variety of beliefs concerning the causes of illness. Such beliefs vary across cultures and, among immigrants, may be influenced by many factors, including level of acculturation, gender, level of education, and experience of illness and treatment. This study examines illness causal beliefs in Turkish-immigrants in Australia. Methods Causal beliefs about somatic and mental illness were examined in a sample of 444 members of the Turkish population of Melbourne. The socio-demographic characteristics of the sample were broadly similar to those of the Melbourne Turkish community. Five issues were examined: the structure of causal beliefs; the relative frequency of natural, supernatural and metaphysical beliefs; ascription of somatic, mental, or both somatic and mental conditions to the various causes; the correlations of belief types with socio-demographic, modernizing and acculturation variables; and the relationship between causal beliefs and current illness. Results Principal components analysis revealed two broad factors, accounting for 58 percent of the variation in scores on illness belief scales, distinctly interpretable as natural and supernatural beliefs. Second, beliefs in natural causes were more frequent than beliefs in supernatural causes. Third, some causal beliefs were commonly linked to both somatic and mental conditions while others were regarded as more specific to either somatic or mental disorders. Last, there was a range of correlations between endorsement of belief types and factors defining heterogeneity within the community, including with demographic factors, indicators of modernizing and acculturative processes, and the current presence of illness. Conclusion Results supported the classification of causal beliefs proposed by Murdock, Wilson & Frederick, with a division into natural and supernatural causes. While belief in natural causes is more common, belief in supernatural causes

  17. Illness causal beliefs in Turkish immigrants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minas, Harry; Klimidis, Steven; Tuncer, Can

    2007-07-24

    People hold a wide variety of beliefs concerning the causes of illness. Such beliefs vary across cultures and, among immigrants, may be influenced by many factors, including level of acculturation, gender, level of education, and experience of illness and treatment. This study examines illness causal beliefs in Turkish-immigrants in Australia. Causal beliefs about somatic and mental illness were examined in a sample of 444 members of the Turkish population of Melbourne. The socio-demographic characteristics of the sample were broadly similar to those of the Melbourne Turkish community. Five issues were examined: the structure of causal beliefs; the relative frequency of natural, supernatural and metaphysical beliefs; ascription of somatic, mental, or both somatic and mental conditions to the various causes; the correlations of belief types with socio-demographic, modernizing and acculturation variables; and the relationship between causal beliefs and current illness. Principal components analysis revealed two broad factors, accounting for 58 percent of the variation in scores on illness belief scales, distinctly interpretable as natural and supernatural beliefs. Second, beliefs in natural causes were more frequent than beliefs in supernatural causes. Third, some causal beliefs were commonly linked to both somatic and mental conditions while others were regarded as more specific to either somatic or mental disorders. Last, there was a range of correlations between endorsement of belief types and factors defining heterogeneity within the community, including with demographic factors, indicators of modernizing and acculturative processes, and the current presence of illness. Results supported the classification of causal beliefs proposed by Murdock, Wilson & Frederick, with a division into natural and supernatural causes. While belief in natural causes is more common, belief in supernatural causes persists despite modernizing and acculturative influences. Different

  18. Identifying Achievement Goals and Their Relationship to Academic Achievement in Undergraduate Pharmacy Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sainsbury, Erica; Rose, Grenville; Smith, Lorraine

    2014-01-01

    Objectives. To compare the achievement goal orientations of first-year with those of third-year undergraduate Australian pharmacy students and to examine the relationship of goal orientations to academic achievement. Methods. The Achievement Goal Questionnaire was administered to first-year and third-year students during class time. Students’ grades were obtained from course coordinators. Results. More first-year students adopted performance-approach and mastery-approach goals than did third-year students. Performance-approach goals were positively correlated with academic achievement in the first year. Chinese Australian students scored the highest in adopting performance-approach goals. Vietnamese Australian students adopted mastery-avoidance goals more than other ethnicities. First-year students were more strongly performance approach goal-oriented than third-year students. Conclusion. Adopting performance-approach goals was positively correlated with academic achievement, while adopting avoidance goals was not. Ethnicity has an effect on the adoption of achievement goals and academic achievement. PMID:25258438

  19. Application of Nonlinear Analysis Methods for Identifying Relationships Between Microbial Community Structure and Groundwater Geochemistry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schryver, Jack C.; Brandt, Craig C.; Pfiffner, Susan M.; Palumbo, A V.; Peacock, Aaron D.; White, David C.; McKinley, James P.; Long, Philip E.

    2006-01-01

    The relationship between groundwater geochemistry and microbial community structure can be complex and difficult to assess. We applied nonlinear and generalized linear data analysis methods to relate microbial biomarkers (phospholipids fatty acids, PLFA) to groundwater geochemical characteristics at the Shiprock uranium mill tailings disposal site that is primarily contaminated by uranium, sulfate, and nitrate. First, predictive models were constructed using feedforward artificial neural networks (NN) to predict PLFA classes from geochemistry. To reduce the danger of overfitting, parsimonious NN architectures were selected based on pruning of hidden nodes and elimination of redundant predictor (geochemical) variables. The resulting NN models greatly outperformed the generalized linear models. Sensitivity analysis indicated that tritium, which was indicative of riverine influences, and uranium were important in predicting the distributions of the PLFA classes. In contrast, nitrate concentration and inorganic carbon were least important, and total ionic strength was of intermediate importance. Second, nonlinear principal components (NPC) were extracted from the PLFA data using a variant of the feedforward NN. The NPC grouped the samples according to similar geochemistry. PLFA indicators of Gram-negative bacteria and eukaryotes were associated with the groups of wells with lower levels of contamination. The more contaminated samples contained microbial communities that were predominated by terminally branched saturates and branched monounsaturates that are indicative of metal reducers, actinomycetes, and Gram-positive bacteria. These results indicate that the microbial community at the site is coupled to the geochemistry and knowledge of the geochemistry allows prediction of the community composition

  20. Identifying the relationship of parenting styles and parent’s perfectionism with normal students’ and gifted students’ perfectionism

    OpenAIRE

    Kakavand, Alireza; Kalantari, Siavash; Noohi, Sima; Taran, Hossein

    2017-01-01

    Psychologists stated that parents’ functions and behaviors influence the formation of children’s thoughts, behaviors and emotions This study aimed to identify the relationship of parenting styles and parents’ perfectionism with normal students’ perfectionism and gifted students’ perfectionism. The study is a descriptive correlation study. The population consisted of all normal and gifted female high school students of Karaj. A sample of 200 students was selected using random sampling method. ...

  1. Operator ordering and causality

    OpenAIRE

    Plimak, L. I.; Stenholm, S. T.

    2011-01-01

    It is shown that causality violations [M. de Haan, Physica 132A, 375, 397 (1985)], emerging when the conventional definition of the time-normal operator ordering [P.L.Kelley and W.H.Kleiner, Phys.Rev. 136, A316 (1964)] is taken outside the rotating wave approximation, disappear when the amended definition [L.P. and S.S., Annals of Physics, 323, 1989 (2008)] of this ordering is used.

  2. Space, time and causality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lucas, J.R.

    1984-01-01

    Originating from lectures given to first year undergraduates reading physics and philosophy or mathematics and philosophy, formal logic is applied to issues and the elucidation of problems in space, time and causality. No special knowledge of relativity theory or quantum mechanics is needed. The text is interspersed with exercises and each chapter is preceded by a suggested 'preliminary reading' and followed by 'further reading' references. (U.K.)

  3. Causal Attribution and Coping Maxims Differences between Immigrants and Non-Immigrants Suffering from Back Pain in Switzerland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mantwill, Sarah; Schulz, Peter J

    2016-01-01

    This study aimed at investigating the relationship between causal attributions and coping maxims in people suffering from back pain. Further, it aimed at identifying in how far causal attributions and related coping maxims would defer between immigrants and non-immigrants in Switzerland. Data for this study came from a larger survey study that was conducted among immigrant populations in the German- and Italian-speaking part of Switzerland. Included in the analyses were native Swiss participants, as well as Albanian- and Serbian-speaking immigrants, who had indicated to have suffered from back pain within the last 12 months prior to the study. Data was analyzed for overall 495 participants. Items for causal attributions and coping maxims were subject to factor analyses. Cultural differences were assessed with ANOVA and regression analyses. Interaction terms were included to investigate whether the relationship between causal attributions and coping maxims would differ with cultural affiliation. For both immigrant groups the physician's influence on the course of their back pain was more important than for Swiss participants (p immigrant groups were more likely to agree with maxims that were related to the improvement of the back pain, as well as the acceptance of the current situation (p immigrants and non-immigrants exist. Further, the results support the assumption of an association between causal attribution and coping maxims. However cultural affiliation did not considerably moderate this relationship.

  4. Causality between Prices and Wages: VECM Analysis for EU-27

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adriatik Hoxha

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available The literature on causality as well as the empirical evidence clearly shows that there are two opposing groups of economists, who support different hypotheses with respect to the flow of causality in the price-wage causal relationship. The first group argues that causality runs from wages to prices, whereas the second argues that effect flows from prices to wages. Nonetheless, the literature review suggeststhat there is at least some consensus in that researcher’s conclusions may be contingent on the type of data employed, applied econometric model, or even that relationship may alter with economic cycles. This paper empirically examines theprice-wage causal relationship in EU-27, by using the OLS and VECM analysis, and it also provides robust evidence in support of a bilateral causal relationship between prices and wages, both in long-run as well as in the shortrun.Prior to designing and estimating the econometric model we have performed stationarity tests for the employed price, wage and productivity variables. Additionally, we have also specified the model taking into account the lag order as well as the rank of co-integration for the co-integrated variables. Furthermore, we have also applied respective restrictions on the parameters of estimatedVECM. The evidence resulting from model robustness checks indicates that results are statistically robust. Although far from closing the issue of causality between prices and wages, this paper at least provides some fresh evidence in the case of EU-27.

  5. Encoding dependence in Bayesian causal networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bayesian networks (BNs) represent complex, uncertain spatio-temporal dynamics by propagation of conditional probabilities between identifiable states with a testable causal interaction model. Typically, they assume random variables are discrete in time and space with a static network structure that ...

  6. Causal interpretation of stochastic differential equations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sokol, Alexander; Hansen, Niels Richard

    2014-01-01

    We give a causal interpretation of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) by defining the postintervention SDE resulting from an intervention in an SDE. We show that under Lipschitz conditions, the solution to the postintervention SDE is equal to a uniform limit in probability of postintervention...... structural equation models based on the Euler scheme of the original SDE, thus relating our definition to mainstream causal concepts. We prove that when the driving noise in the SDE is a Lévy process, the postintervention distribution is identifiable from the generator of the SDE....

  7. Normalizing the causality between time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, X. San

    2015-08-01

    Recently, a rigorous yet concise formula was derived to evaluate information flow, and hence the causality in a quantitative sense, between time series. To assess the importance of a resulting causality, it needs to be normalized. The normalization is achieved through distinguishing a Lyapunov exponent-like, one-dimensional phase-space stretching rate and a noise-to-signal ratio from the rate of information flow in the balance of the marginal entropy evolution of the flow recipient. It is verified with autoregressive models and applied to a real financial analysis problem. An unusually strong one-way causality is identified from IBM (International Business Machines Corporation) to GE (General Electric Company) in their early era, revealing to us an old story, which has almost faded into oblivion, about "Seven Dwarfs" competing with a giant for the mainframe computer market.

  8. Modelling cointegration and Granger causality network to detect long-term equilibrium and diffusion paths in the financial system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Xiangyun; Huang, Shupei; Sun, Xiaoqi; Hao, Xiaoqing; An, Feng

    2018-03-01

    Microscopic factors are the basis of macroscopic phenomena. We proposed a network analysis paradigm to study the macroscopic financial system from a microstructure perspective. We built the cointegration network model and the Granger causality network model based on econometrics and complex network theory and chose stock price time series of the real estate industry and its upstream and downstream industries as empirical sample data. Then, we analysed the cointegration network for understanding the steady long-term equilibrium relationships and analysed the Granger causality network for identifying the diffusion paths of the potential risks in the system. The results showed that the influence from a few key stocks can spread conveniently in the system. The cointegration network and Granger causality network are helpful to detect the diffusion path between the industries. We can also identify and intervene in the transmission medium to curb risk diffusion.

  9. Identifying relationships between the professional culture of pharmacy, pharmacists' personality traits, and the provision of advanced pharmacy services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenthal, Meagen; Tsao, Nicole W; Tsuyuki, Ross T; Marra, Carlo A

    2016-01-01

    Legislative changes are affording pharmacists the opportunity to provide more advanced pharmacy services. However, many pharmacists have not yet been able to provide these services sustainably. Research from implementation science suggests that before sustained change in pharmacy can be achieved an improved understanding of pharmacy context, through the professional culture of pharmacy and pharmacists' personality traits, is required. The primary objective of this study was to investigate possible relationships between cultural factors, and personality traits, and the uptake of advanced practice opportunities by pharmacists in British Columbia, Canada. The study design was a cross-sectional survey of registered, and practicing, pharmacists from one Canadian province. The survey gauged respondents' characteristics, practice setting, and the provision of advanced pharmacy services, and contained the Organizational Culture Profile (OCP), a measure of professional culture, as well as the Big Five Inventory (BFI), a measure of personality traits. A total of 945 completed survey instruments were returned. The majority of respondents were female (61%), the average age of respondents was 42 years (SD: 12), and the average number of years in practice was 19 (SD: 12). A significant positive relationship was identified for respondents perceiving greater value in the OCP factors competitiveness and innovation and providing a higher number of all advanced services. A positive relationship was observed for respondents scoring higher on the BFI traits extraversion and the immunizations provided, and agreeableness and openness and medication reviews completed. This is the first work to identify statistically significant relationships between the OCP and BFI, and the provision of advanced pharmacy services. As such, this work serves as a starting place from which to develop more detailed insight into how the professional culture of pharmacy and pharmacists personality traits may

  10. Cause and Event: Supporting Causal Claims through Logistic Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Connell, Ann A.; Gray, DeLeon L.

    2011-01-01

    Efforts to identify and support credible causal claims have received intense interest in the research community, particularly over the past few decades. In this paper, we focus on the use of statistical procedures designed to support causal claims for a treatment or intervention when the response variable of interest is dichotomous. We identify…

  11. Neural correlates of continuous causal word generation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wende, Kim C; Straube, Benjamin; Stratmann, Mirjam; Sommer, Jens; Kircher, Tilo; Nagels, Arne

    2012-09-01

    Causality provides a natural structure for organizing our experience and language. Causal reasoning during speech production is a distinct aspect of verbal communication, whose related brain processes are yet unknown. The aim of the current study was to investigate the neural mechanisms underlying the continuous generation of cause-and-effect coherences during overt word production. During fMRI data acquisition participants performed three verbal fluency tasks on identical cue words: A novel causal verbal fluency task (CVF), requiring the production of multiple reasons to a given cue word (e.g. reasons for heat are fire, sun etc.), a semantic (free association, FA, e.g. associations with heat are sweat, shower etc.) and a phonological control task (phonological verbal fluency, PVF, e.g. rhymes with heat are meat, wheat etc.). We found that, in contrast to PVF, both CVF and FA activated a left lateralized network encompassing inferior frontal, inferior parietal and angular regions, with further bilateral activation in middle and inferior as well as superior temporal gyri and the cerebellum. For CVF contrasted against FA, we found greater bold responses only in the left middle frontal cortex. Large overlaps in the neural activations during free association and causal verbal fluency indicate that the access to causal relationships between verbal concepts is at least partly based on the semantic neural network. The selective activation in the left middle frontal cortex for causal verbal fluency suggests that distinct neural processes related to cause-and-effect-relations are associated with the recruitment of middle frontal brain areas. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Causal Relationship between Teachers' Job Performance and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Nneka Umera-Okeke

    The study investigated teachers' job performance and students' academic .... The rating scale, tagged Student Academic Performance Rating Scale ..... term may engender teachers' motivation and enthusiasm for improved instructional.

  13. [Dementia and diabetes: casual or causal relationship?].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Formiga, Francesc; Reñe, Ramón; Pérez-Maraver, Manuel

    2015-02-20

    Several studies have reported the existence of an epidemiological association between diabetes mellitus (DM) and dementia. Although this association is more evident for vascular dementia, it is also described in Alzheimer's disease (AD). In this review we evaluate the different hypotheses that may explain the association between DM and dementia. We can consider the existence of a diabetes type 3 as the situation that occurs when hyperinsulinemia in response to insulin resistance leads to a decrease of the brain insulin and a poor regulation of insulin-degrading enzyme; thus, beta-amyloid accumulates, among other mechanisms, by the decline of its degradation by insulin-degrading enzyme. Consequently, AD may be related, at least in part, to a brain insulin resistance. There are several studies that prove the concept that a better metabolic control, especially in not very old people, is associated with an increased cognitive performance. It is not known whether the use of any specific drug for the treatment of DM is better than any other. It is important for physicians responsible for the metabolic control of diabetic patients to know this possible association, and to explore cognition in the control visits of patients with DM. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  14. Causal events enter awareness faster than non-causal events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pieter Moors

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Philosophers have long argued that causality cannot be directly observed but requires a conscious inference (Hume, 1967. Albert Michotte however developed numerous visual phenomena in which people seemed to perceive causality akin to primary visual properties like colour or motion (Michotte, 1946. Michotte claimed that the perception of causality did not require a conscious, deliberate inference but, working over 70 years ago, he did not have access to the experimental methods to test this claim. Here we employ Continuous Flash Suppression (CFS—an interocular suppression technique to render stimuli invisible (Tsuchiya & Koch, 2005—to test whether causal events enter awareness faster than non-causal events. We presented observers with ‘causal’ and ‘non-causal’ events, and found consistent evidence that participants become aware of causal events more rapidly than non-causal events. Our results suggest that, whilst causality must be inferred from sensory evidence, this inference might be computed at low levels of perceptual processing, and does not depend on a deliberative conscious evaluation of the stimulus. This work therefore supports Michotte’s contention that, like colour or motion, causality is an immediate property of our perception of the world.

  15. Identifying interested parts in the implementation of a radiological waste repository in Brazil: presumption of interests and relationships between stakeholders

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nouailhetas, Yannick; Mezrahi, Arnaldo

    2009-01-01

    In Brazil, like in many countries, the use of radiation sources of various type and activities in industry, medicine, research and development as well as fuel cycle installations and nuclear reactors are increasing yearly. Consequently final disposal of the wastes generated by those activities represent a very important issue. The challenges arise more than ever from the country's plans to expand the nuclear power program and on the increasing use of radioisotopes. The construction of repositories must have specific site characteristics, design, operational procedures, among other peculiarities together with a safety analysis in order to accomplish needed provisions to restrict risks. Public opinion is currently more concerned about the consequences of global warming than the overall impact of nuclear activities on the environment. The success of finding a place for a repository depends on the participation of the interested parts. It is necessary to ensure that their expectations and needs are known and considered by the repository owners. In general, those expectations involve satisfaction of needs, financial compensation, ethical behavior and regional specificities. In this article, an attempt is made to identify these main involved parts, their wills and concerns, as well as other interest relationships that might arise as a result of this entrepreneurship. It is evident that a number of relationships ranging from partnership to antagonism might arise. So different strategies and considerations should be applied by those responsible for the project in order to optimize the positive aspects of the relationship or conduct with the less favorable ones. (author)

  16. An empirical study to identify and rank CSFs in customer relationship management (CRM: A case study of oil products distribution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seyed Mehdi Tofighi

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Customer relationship management (CRM is founded based on the value exchange between organization and customers and focuses merely on the value created in this connection. In this paper, the critical success factors are identified for a proper and effective implementation of CRM for an oil distribution company. The proposed survey of this paper identifies some important factors affecting the CRM implementation and determines the most important ones using a survey. The results indicate that there are twelve factors playing the most important roles on the success of CRM. There are CRM strategy, knowledge management in customer relationship, CRM technology, effective strategic committee, management of customer contact channels, customer information management, customer-oriented change management, training programs, strategic communication with staff, staff commitment, integration, and sectional implementation. We categorize the factors into two levels based on the level of their importance. The first level consists of the most important ones include only four items and the other eight items are categorized in level 2.

  17. Determination of Causality between Remittance and Import: Evidence from Bangladesh

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dewan Muktadir-Al-Mukit

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available This study investigates the relationship between remittance and import for the economy of Bangladesh. The study used different econometric techniques of measuring the long and short term relationship between variables. The Johansen Cointegration test is used to determine the existence of a long term relationships between study variables. The normalized Cointegrating coefficients are found statistically significant and show a stable and positive relationship between study variables. Our Granger causality analysis suggests the existence of a unidirectional causality running from import to remittance. This confirms that remittances have no significant impact on the demand for imported goods rather import exerts a positive shock on the remittance of Bangladesh.

  18. Causal inference based on counterfactuals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Höfler M

    2005-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The counterfactual or potential outcome model has become increasingly standard for causal inference in epidemiological and medical studies. Discussion This paper provides an overview on the counterfactual and related approaches. A variety of conceptual as well as practical issues when estimating causal effects are reviewed. These include causal interactions, imperfect experiments, adjustment for confounding, time-varying exposures, competing risks and the probability of causation. It is argued that the counterfactual model of causal effects captures the main aspects of causality in health sciences and relates to many statistical procedures. Summary Counterfactuals are the basis of causal inference in medicine and epidemiology. Nevertheless, the estimation of counterfactual differences pose several difficulties, primarily in observational studies. These problems, however, reflect fundamental barriers only when learning from observations, and this does not invalidate the counterfactual concept.

  19. Causal inference in public health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glass, Thomas A; Goodman, Steven N; Hernán, Miguel A; Samet, Jonathan M

    2013-01-01

    Causal inference has a central role in public health; the determination that an association is causal indicates the possibility for intervention. We review and comment on the long-used guidelines for interpreting evidence as supporting a causal association and contrast them with the potential outcomes framework that encourages thinking in terms of causes that are interventions. We argue that in public health this framework is more suitable, providing an estimate of an action's consequences rather than the less precise notion of a risk factor's causal effect. A variety of modern statistical methods adopt this approach. When an intervention cannot be specified, causal relations can still exist, but how to intervene to change the outcome will be unclear. In application, the often-complex structure of causal processes needs to be acknowledged and appropriate data collected to study them. These newer approaches need to be brought to bear on the increasingly complex public health challenges of our globalized world.

  20. Zika virus causes microcephaly? Prophylaxis and treatment are more urgent as the causal relationship is sure%寨卡病毒引发小头症?关系越确定,防治越迫切!

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    汪小欢; 邹鹏; 黎媛; 陆路

    2017-01-01

    自2015年初至今,寨卡病毒(Zika virus,ZIKV)以巴西为首先后在数十个国家和地区暴发流行.几乎同时,与日俱增的小头症患儿使全球对此陷入警惕状态.目前,全球正在积极探索ZIKV感染所引发的各种神经系统疾病.在越来越多证据表明在细胞水平和动物模型中ZIKV能直接损伤胚胎脑部发育的同时,ZIKV感染者的防治需求也越来越迫切.本文从ZIKV的流行病学、与小头畸形因果关系的研究进展及其预防疫苗和治疗药物的研究现状等方面进行概述.%Since early 2015, Zika virus has caused severe epidemic outbreaks, which started from Brazil involving dozens of regions and countries successively, and contemporaneously growing infants with microcephaly have made the whole global alert against Zika virus.A variety of potential neurological disorders caused by Zika virus infection are under exploring worldwide.The need of treatments for infectors is more and more urgent because of increasing evidences indicating that Zika virus is able to impair the brain development of the embryo in cellular level and animal model.This review will summarize recent research achievements concerning epidemiology and advances among causal relationship with microcephaly, potential preventive vaccines and therapeutic drugs of Zika virus.

  1. Causal Diagrams for Empirical Research

    OpenAIRE

    Pearl, Judea

    1994-01-01

    The primary aim of this paper is to show how graphical models can be used as a mathematical language for integrating statistical and subject-matter information. In particular, the paper develops a principled, nonparametric framework for causal inference, in which diagrams are queried to determine if the assumptions available are sufficient for identifiying causal effects from non-experimental data. If so the diagrams can be queried to produce mathematical expressions for causal effects in ter...

  2. A quantum probability model of causal reasoning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennifer S Trueblood

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available People can often outperform statistical methods and machine learning algorithms in situations that involve making inferences about the relationship between causes and effects. While people are remarkably good at causal reasoning in many situations, there are several instances where they deviate from expected responses. This paper examines three situations where judgments related to causal inference problems produce unexpected results and describes a quantum inference model based on the axiomatic principles of quantum probability theory that can explain these effects. Two of the three phenomena arise from the comparison of predictive judgments (i.e., the conditional probability of an effect given a cause with diagnostic judgments (i.e., the conditional probability of a cause given an effect. The third phenomenon is a new finding examining order effects in predictive causal judgments. The quantum inference model uses the notion of incompatibility among different causes to account for all three phenomena. Psychologically, the model assumes that individuals adopt different points of view when thinking about different causes. The model provides good fits to the data and offers a coherent account for all three causal reasoning effects thus proving to be a viable new candidate for modeling human judgment.

  3. Causality Statistical Perspectives and Applications

    CERN Document Server

    Berzuini, Carlo; Bernardinell, Luisa

    2012-01-01

    A state of the art volume on statistical causality Causality: Statistical Perspectives and Applications presents a wide-ranging collection of seminal contributions by renowned experts in the field, providing a thorough treatment of all aspects of statistical causality. It covers the various formalisms in current use, methods for applying them to specific problems, and the special requirements of a range of examples from medicine, biology and economics to political science. This book:Provides a clear account and comparison of formal languages, concepts and models for statistical causality. Addr

  4. World oil and agricultural commodity prices: Evidence from nonlinear causality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nazlioglu, Saban

    2011-01-01

    The increasing co-movements between the world oil and agricultural commodity prices have renewed interest in determining price transmission from oil prices to those of agricultural commodities. This study extends the literature on the oil-agricultural commodity prices nexus, which particularly concentrates on nonlinear causal relationships between the world oil and three key agricultural commodity prices (corn, soybeans, and wheat). To this end, the linear causality approach of Toda-Yamamoto and the nonparametric causality method of Diks-Panchenko are applied to the weekly data spanning from 1994 to 2010. The linear causality analysis indicates that the oil prices and the agricultural commodity prices do not influence each other, which supports evidence on the neutrality hypothesis. In contrast, the nonlinear causality analysis shows that: (i) there are nonlinear feedbacks between the oil and the agricultural prices, and (ii) there is a persistent unidirectional nonlinear causality running from the oil prices to the corn and to the soybeans prices. The findings from the nonlinear causality analysis therefore provide clues for better understanding the recent dynamics of the agricultural commodity prices and some policy implications for policy makers, farmers, and global investors. This study also suggests the directions for future studies. - Research highlights: → This study determines the price transmission mechanisms between the world oil and three key agricultural commodity prices (corn, soybeans, and wheat). → The linear and nonlinear cointegration and causality methods are carried out. → The linear causality analysis supports evidence on the neutrality hypothesis. → The nonlinear causality analysis shows that there is a persistent unidirectional causality from the oil prices to the corn and to the soybeans prices.

  5. Trivariate causality between economic growth, urbanisation and electricity consumption in Angola: Cointegration and causality analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Solarin, Sakiru Adebola; Shahbaz, Muhammad

    2013-01-01

    This paper investigates the causal relationship between economic growth, urbanisation and electricity consumption in the case of Angola, while utilizing the data over the period of 1971–2009. We have applied Lee and Strazicich (2003. The Review of Economics and Statistics 63, 1082–1089; 2004. Working Paper. Department of Economics, Appalachian State University) unit root tests to examine the stationarity properties of the series. Using the Gregory–Hansen structural break cointegration procedure as a complement, we employ the ARDL bounds test to investigate long run relationships. The VECM Granger causality test is subsequently used to examine the direction of causality between economic growth, urbanisation, and electricity consumption. Our results indicate the existence of long run relationships. We further observe evidence in favour of bidirectional causality between electricity consumption and economic growth. The feedback hypothesis is also found between urbanisation and economic growth. Urbanisation and electricity consumption Granger cause each other. We conclude that Angola is energy-dependent country. Consequently, the relevant authorities should boost electricity production as one of the means of achieving sustainable economic development in the long run. - Highlights: • We consider the link between electricity consumption and economic growth in Angola. • Urbanisation is added to turn the research into a trivariate investigation. • Various time series procedures are used. • Results show that increasing electricity will improve economic growth in Angola. • Results show urbanisations reduced economic growth during civil war

  6. Causal electromagnetic interaction equations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zinoviev, Yury M.

    2011-01-01

    For the electromagnetic interaction of two particles the relativistic causal quantum mechanics equations are proposed. These equations are solved for the case when the second particle moves freely. The initial wave functions are supposed to be smooth and rapidly decreasing at the infinity. This condition is important for the convergence of the integrals similar to the integrals of quantum electrodynamics. We also consider the singular initial wave functions in the particular case when the second particle mass is equal to zero. The discrete energy spectrum of the first particle wave function is defined by the initial wave function of the free-moving second particle. Choosing the initial wave functions of the free-moving second particle it is possible to obtain a practically arbitrary discrete energy spectrum.

  7. Structural Equations and Causal Explanations: Some Challenges for Causal SEM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Markus, Keith A.

    2010-01-01

    One common application of structural equation modeling (SEM) involves expressing and empirically investigating causal explanations. Nonetheless, several aspects of causal explanation that have an impact on behavioral science methodology remain poorly understood. It remains unclear whether applications of SEM should attempt to provide complete…

  8. Secondary mediation and regression analyses of the PTClinResNet database: determining causal relationships among the International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health levels for four physical therapy intervention trials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mulroy, Sara J; Winstein, Carolee J; Kulig, Kornelia; Beneck, George J; Fowler, Eileen G; DeMuth, Sharon K; Sullivan, Katherine J; Brown, David A; Lane, Christianne J

    2011-12-01

    Each of the 4 randomized clinical trials (RCTs) hosted by the Physical Therapy Clinical Research Network (PTClinResNet) targeted a different disability group (low back disorder in the Muscle-Specific Strength Training Effectiveness After Lumbar Microdiskectomy [MUSSEL] trial, chronic spinal cord injury in the Strengthening and Optimal Movements for Painful Shoulders in Chronic Spinal Cord Injury [STOMPS] trial, adult stroke in the Strength Training Effectiveness Post-Stroke [STEPS] trial, and pediatric cerebral palsy in the Pediatric Endurance and Limb Strengthening [PEDALS] trial for children with spastic diplegic cerebral palsy) and tested the effectiveness of a muscle-specific or functional activity-based intervention on primary outcomes that captured pain (STOMPS, MUSSEL) or locomotor function (STEPS, PEDALS). The focus of these secondary analyses was to determine causal relationships among outcomes across levels of the International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health (ICF) framework for the 4 RCTs. With the database from PTClinResNet, we used 2 separate secondary statistical approaches-mediation analysis for the MUSSEL and STOMPS trials and regression analysis for the STEPS and PEDALS trials-to test relationships among muscle performance, primary outcomes (pain related and locomotor related), activity and participation measures, and overall quality of life. Predictive models were stronger for the 2 studies with pain-related primary outcomes. Change in muscle performance mediated or predicted reductions in pain for the MUSSEL and STOMPS trials and, to some extent, walking speed for the STEPS trial. Changes in primary outcome variables were significantly related to changes in activity and participation variables for all 4 trials. Improvement in activity and participation outcomes mediated or predicted increases in overall quality of life for the 3 trials with adult populations. Variables included in the statistical models were limited to those

  9. On Storks and Babies: Correlation, Causality and Field Experiments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lambrecht Anja

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The explosion of available data has created much excitement among marketing practitioners about their ability to better understand the impact of marketing investments. Big data allows for detecting patterns and often it seems plausible to interpret them as causal. While it is quite obvious that storks do not bring babies, marketing relationships are usually less clear. Apparent “causalities” often fail to hold up under examination. If marketers want to be sure not to walk into a causality trap, they need to conduct field experiments to detect true causal relationships. In the present digital environment, experiments are easier than ever to execute. However, they need to be prepared and interpreted with great care in order to deliver meaningful and genuinely causal results that help improve marketing decisions.

  10. Vascular loops in the anterior inferior cerebellar artery, as identified by magnetic resonance imaging, and their relationship with otologic symptoms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luiz de Abreu Junior

    Full Text Available Abstract Objective: To use magnetic resonance imaging to identify vascular loops in the anterior inferior cerebellar artery and to evaluate their relationship with otologic symptoms. Materials and Methods: We selected 33 adults with otologic complaints who underwent magnetic resonance imaging at our institution between June and November 2013. Three experienced independent observers evaluated the trajectory of the anterior inferior cerebellar artery in relation to the internal auditory meatus and graded the anterior inferior cerebellar artery vascular loops according to the Chavda classification. Kappa and chi-square tests were used. Values of p < 0.05 were considered significant. Results: The interobserver agreement was moderate. Comparing ears that presented vascular loops with those that did not, we found no association with tinnitus, hearing loss, or vertigo. Similarly, we found no association between the Chavda grade and any otological symptom. Conclusion: Vascular loops do not appear to be associated with otoneurological manifestations.

  11. Re-thinking local causality

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Friederich, Simon

    There is widespread belief in a tension between quantum theory and special relativity, motivated by the idea that quantum theory violates J. S. Bell's criterion of local causality, which is meant to implement the causal structure of relativistic space-time. This paper argues that if one takes the

  12. Covariation in Natural Causal Induction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Patricia W.; Novick, Laura R.

    1991-01-01

    Biases and models usually offered by cognitive and social psychology and by philosophy to explain causal induction are evaluated with respect to focal sets (contextually determined sets of events over which covariation is computed). A probabilistic contrast model is proposed as underlying covariation computation in natural causal induction. (SLD)

  13. Genetic causal beliefs about obesity, self-efficacy for weight control, and obesity-related behaviours in a middle-aged female cohort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knerr, Sarah; Bowen, Deborah J; Beresford, Shirley A A; Wang, Catharine

    2016-01-01

    Obesity is a heritable condition with well-established risk-reducing behaviours. Studies have shown that beliefs about the causes of obesity are associated with diet and exercise behaviour. Identifying mechanisms linking causal beliefs and behaviours is important for obesity prevention and control. Cross-sectional multi-level regression analyses of self-efficacy for weight control as a possible mediator of obesity attributions (diet, physical activity, genetic) and preventive behaviours in 487 non-Hispanic White women from South King County, Washington. Self-reported daily fruit and vegetable intake and weekly leisure-time physical activity. Diet causal beliefs were positively associated with fruit and vegetable intake, with self-efficacy for weight control partially accounting for this association. Self-efficacy for weight control also indirectly linked physical activity attributions and physical activity behaviour. Relationships between genetic causal beliefs, self-efficacy for weight control, and obesity-related behaviours differed by obesity status. Self-efficacy for weight control contributed to negative associations between genetic causal attributions and obesity-related behaviours in non-obese, but not obese, women. Self-efficacy is an important construct to include in studies of genetic causal beliefs and behavioural self-regulation. Theoretical and longitudinal work is needed to clarify the causal nature of these relationships and other mediating and moderating factors.

  14. Paradoxical Behavior of Granger Causality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Witt, Annette; Battaglia, Demian; Gail, Alexander

    2013-03-01

    Granger causality is a standard tool for the description of directed interaction of network components and is popular in many scientific fields including econometrics, neuroscience and climate science. For time series that can be modeled as bivariate auto-regressive processes we analytically derive an expression for spectrally decomposed Granger Causality (SDGC) and show that this quantity depends only on two out of four groups of model parameters. Then we present examples of such processes whose SDGC expose paradoxical behavior in the sense that causality is high for frequency ranges with low spectral power. For avoiding misinterpretations of Granger causality analysis we propose to complement it by partial spectral analysis. Our findings are illustrated by an example from brain electrophysiology. Finally, we draw implications for the conventional definition of Granger causality. Bernstein Center for Computational Neuroscience Goettingen

  15. Scalar field Green functions on causal sets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nomaan Ahmed, S; Surya, Sumati; Dowker, Fay

    2017-01-01

    We examine the validity and scope of Johnston’s models for scalar field retarded Green functions on causal sets in 2 and 4 dimensions. As in the continuum, the massive Green function can be obtained from the massless one, and hence the key task in causal set theory is to first identify the massless Green function. We propose that the 2d model provides a Green function for the massive scalar field on causal sets approximated by any topologically trivial 2-dimensional spacetime. We explicitly demonstrate that this is indeed the case in a Riemann normal neighbourhood. In 4d the model can again be used to provide a Green function for the massive scalar field in a Riemann normal neighbourhood which we compare to Bunch and Parker’s continuum Green function. We find that the same prescription can also be used for de Sitter spacetime and the conformally flat patch of anti-de Sitter spacetime. Our analysis then allows us to suggest a generalisation of Johnston’s model for the Green function for a causal set approximated by 3-dimensional flat spacetime. (paper)

  16. Causal Factors of Corruption in Construction Project Management: An Overview.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Owusu, Emmanuel Kingsford; Chan, Albert P C; Shan, Ming

    2017-11-11

    The development of efficient and strategic anti-corruption measures can be better achieved if a deeper understanding and identification of the causes of corruption are established. Over the past years, many studies have been devoted to the research of corruption in construction management (CM). This has resulted in a significant increase in the body of knowledge on the subject matter, including the causative factors triggering these corrupt practices. However, an apropos systematic assessment of both past and current studies on the subject matter which is needful for the future endeavor is lacking. Moreover, there is an absence of unified view of the causative factors of corruption identified in construction project management (CPM). This paper, therefore, presents a comprehensive review of the causes of corruption from selected articles in recognized construction management journals to address the mentioned gaps. A total number of 44 causes of corruption were identified from 37 publications and analyzed in terms of existing causal factors of corruption, annual trend of publications and the thematic categorization of the identified variables. The most identifiable causes were over close relationships, poor professional ethical standards, negative industrial and working conditions, negative role models and inadequate sanctions. A conceptual framework of causes of corruption was established, after categorizing the 44 variables into five unique categories. In descending order, the five constructs are Psychosocial-Specific Causes, Organizational-Specific Causes, Regulatory-Specific Causes, Project-Specific Causes and Statutory-Specific Causes. This study extends the current literature of corruption research in construction management and contributes to a deepened understanding of the causal instigators of corruption identified in CPM. The findings from this study provide valuable information and extended knowledge to industry practitioners and policymakers as well as

  17. Causality tests between stock market development and economic growth in West African Monetary Union

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maman Tachiwou ABOUDOU

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the causal relationship between stock market development and economic growth for the West African Monetary Union economy over the last decade or so. By applying the techniques of unit–root tests and the long–run Granger noncausality test proposed by Toda and Yamamoto (1995, the causal relationships between the real GDP growth rate and two stock market development proxies are tested. The results are in line with the supply leading hypothesis in the sense that there is strong causal flow from the stock market development to economic growth. A unidirectional causal relationship is also observed between real market capitalization ratio and economic growth.

  18. Neural Correlates of Causal Power Judgments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Denise Dellarosa Cummins

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Causal inference is a fundamental component of cognition and perception. Probabilistic theories of causal judgment (most notably causal Bayes networks derive causal judgments using metrics that integrate contingency information. But human estimates typically diverge from these normative predictions. This is because human causal power judgments are typically strongly influenced by beliefs concerning underlying causal mechanisms, and because of the way knowledge is retrieved from human memory during the judgment process. Neuroimaging studies indicate that the brain distinguishes causal events from mere covariation, and between perceived and inferred causality. Areas involved in error prediction are also activated, implying automatic activation of possible exception cases during causal decision-making.

  19. Finding the Cause: Verbal Framing Helps Children Extract Causal Evidence Embedded in a Complex Scene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butler, Lucas P.; Markman, Ellen M.

    2012-01-01

    In making causal inferences, children must both identify a causal problem and selectively attend to meaningful evidence. Four experiments demonstrate that verbally framing an event ("Which animals make Lion laugh?") helps 4-year-olds extract evidence from a complex scene to make accurate causal inferences. Whereas framing was unnecessary when…

  20. Application of Network Analysis to Identify and Map Relationships between Information Systems in the context of Arctic Sustainability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kontar, Y. Y.

    2017-12-01

    The Arctic Council is an intergovernmental forum promoting cooperation, coordination and interaction among the Arctic States and indigenous communities on issues of sustainable development and environmental protection in the North. The work of the Council is primarily carried out by six Working Groups: Arctic Contaminants Action Program, Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme, Conservation of Arctic Flora and Fauna, Emergency Prevention, Preparedness and Response, Protection of the Arctic Marine Environment, and Sustainable Development Working Group. The Working Groups are composed of researchers and representatives from government agencies. Each Working Group issues numerous scientific assessments and reports on a broad field of subjects, from climate change to emergency response in the Arctic. A key goal of these publications is to contribute to policy-making in the Arctic. Complex networks of information systems and the connections between the diverse elements within the systems have been identified via network analysis. This allowed to distinguish data sources that were used in the composition of the primary publications of the Working Groups. Next step is to implement network analysis to identify and map the relationships between the Working Groups and policy makers in the Arctic.

  1. Clear message for causality

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Steinberg, Aephraim M. [Institute for Experimental Physics, University of Vienna, Vienna (Austria)

    2003-12-01

    Experiment confirms that information cannot be transmitted faster than the speed of light. Ever since Einstein stated that nothing can travel faster than light, physicists have delighted in finding exceptions. One after another, observations of such 'superluminal' propagation have been made. However, while some image or pattern- such as the motion of a spotlight projected on a distant wall - might have appeared to travel faster than light, it seemed that there was no way to use the superluminal effect to transmit energy or information. In recent years, the superluminal propagation of light pulses through certain media has led to renewed controversy. In 1995, for example, Guenther Nimtz of the University of Cologne encoded Mozart's 40th Symphony on a microwave beam, which he claimed to have transmitted at a speed faster than light. Others maintain that such a violation of Einstein's speed limit would wreak havoc on our most fundamental ideas about causality, allowing an effect to precede its cause. Relativity teaches us that sending a signal faster than light would be equivalent to sending it backwards in time. (U.K.)

  2. Causal Rasch models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Jackson Stenner

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Rasch’s unidimensional models for measurement show how to connect object measures (e.g., reader abilities, measurement mechanisms (e.g., machine-generated cloze reading items, and observational outcomes (e.g., counts correct on reading instruments. Substantive theory shows what interventions or manipulations to the measurement mechanism can be traded off against a change to the object measure to hold the observed outcome constant. A Rasch model integrated with a substantive theory dictates the form and substance of permissible interventions. Rasch analysis, absent construct theory and an associated specification equation, is a black box in which understanding may be more illusory than not. Finally, the quantitative hypothesis can be tested by comparing theory-based trade-off relations with observed trade-off relations. Only quantitative variables (as measured support such trade-offs. Note that to test the quantitative hypothesis requires more than manipulation of the algebraic equivalencies in the Rasch model or descriptively fitting data to the model. A causal Rasch model involves experimental intervention/manipulation on either reader ability or text complexity or a conjoint intervention on both simultaneously to yield a successful prediction of the resultant observed outcome (count correct. We conjecture that when this type of manipulation is introduced for individual reader text encounters and model predictions are consistent with observations, the quantitative hypothesis is sustained.

  3. Causal Rasch models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stenner, A Jackson; Fisher, William P; Stone, Mark H; Burdick, Donald S

    2013-01-01

    Rasch's unidimensional models for measurement show how to connect object measures (e.g., reader abilities), measurement mechanisms (e.g., machine-generated cloze reading items), and observational outcomes (e.g., counts correct on reading instruments). Substantive theory shows what interventions or manipulations to the measurement mechanism can be traded off against a change to the object measure to hold the observed outcome constant. A Rasch model integrated with a substantive theory dictates the form and substance of permissible interventions. Rasch analysis, absent construct theory and an associated specification equation, is a black box in which understanding may be more illusory than not. Finally, the quantitative hypothesis can be tested by comparing theory-based trade-off relations with observed trade-off relations. Only quantitative variables (as measured) support such trade-offs. Note that to test the quantitative hypothesis requires more than manipulation of the algebraic equivalencies in the Rasch model or descriptively fitting data to the model. A causal Rasch model involves experimental intervention/manipulation on either reader ability or text complexity or a conjoint intervention on both simultaneously to yield a successful prediction of the resultant observed outcome (count correct). We conjecture that when this type of manipulation is introduced for individual reader text encounters and model predictions are consistent with observations, the quantitative hypothesis is sustained.

  4. Causal Rasch models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stenner, A. Jackson; Fisher, William P.; Stone, Mark H.; Burdick, Donald S.

    2013-01-01

    Rasch's unidimensional models for measurement show how to connect object measures (e.g., reader abilities), measurement mechanisms (e.g., machine-generated cloze reading items), and observational outcomes (e.g., counts correct on reading instruments). Substantive theory shows what interventions or manipulations to the measurement mechanism can be traded off against a change to the object measure to hold the observed outcome constant. A Rasch model integrated with a substantive theory dictates the form and substance of permissible interventions. Rasch analysis, absent construct theory and an associated specification equation, is a black box in which understanding may be more illusory than not. Finally, the quantitative hypothesis can be tested by comparing theory-based trade-off relations with observed trade-off relations. Only quantitative variables (as measured) support such trade-offs. Note that to test the quantitative hypothesis requires more than manipulation of the algebraic equivalencies in the Rasch model or descriptively fitting data to the model. A causal Rasch model involves experimental intervention/manipulation on either reader ability or text complexity or a conjoint intervention on both simultaneously to yield a successful prediction of the resultant observed outcome (count correct). We conjecture that when this type of manipulation is introduced for individual reader text encounters and model predictions are consistent with observations, the quantitative hypothesis is sustained. PMID:23986726

  5. Causal aspects of diffraction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crawford, G.N.

    1981-01-01

    The analysis is directed at a causal description of photon diffraction, which is explained in terms of a wave exerting real forces and providing actual guidance to each quantum of energy. An undulatory PSI wave is associated with each photon, and this wave is assumed to imply more than an informative probability function, so that it actually carries real energy, in much the same way as does an electro-magnetic wave. Whether or not it may be in some way related to the electromagnetic wave is left as a matter of on-going concern. A novel application of the concept of a minimum energy configuration is utilized; that is, a system of energy quanta seeks out relative positions and orientations of least mutual energy, much as an electron seeks its Bohr radius as a position of least mutual energy. Thus the concept implies more a guiding interaction of the PSI waves than an interfering cancellation of these waves. Similar concepts have been suggested by L. de Broglie and D. Bohm

  6. Energy use, emissions, economic growth and trade: A Granger non-causality evidence for Malaysia

    OpenAIRE

    Ismail, Mohd Adib; Mawar, Murni Yunus

    2012-01-01

    This paper investigates the relationship among energy, emissions and economic growth in Malaysia with the presence of trade activities. We employ Johansen’s (1995) approach to investigate the relationship. Using annual data from 1971 to 2007, the empirical results shows that there are long-run causalities among energy, emission and economic growth, and among energy, emissions, export and capital, while the short-run Granger non-causality test shows that there are unidirectional causalities ru...

  7. Causal linkages between electricity consumption and GDP in Thailand: evidence from the bounds test

    OpenAIRE

    Jiranyakul, Komain

    2014-01-01

    This paper investigates the causal relationship between electricity consumption and real GDP by applying the bounds testing for cointegration in a multivariate framework. The error correction mechanism is employed to detect causal relationship in the presence of cointegration among three variables. Empirical results for Thailand during 2001Q1 and 2014Q2 suggest that there is long-run bidirectional causality between electricity consumption and real GDP. The source of causation in the long run ...

  8. Causal Beliefs and Effects upon Mental Illness Identification Among Chinese Immigrant Relatives of Individuals with Psychosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Lawrence H; Wonpat-Borja, Ahtoy J

    2012-08-01

    Identifying factors that facilitate treatment for psychotic disorders among Chinese-immigrants is crucial due to delayed treatment use. Identifying causal beliefs held by relatives that might predict identification of 'mental illness' as opposed to other 'indigenous labels' may promote more effective mental health service use. We examine what effects beliefs of 'physical causes' and other non-biomedical causal beliefs ('general social causes', and 'indigenous Chinese beliefs' or culture-specific epistemologies of illness) might have on mental illness identification. Forty-nine relatives of Chinese-immigrant consumers with psychosis were sampled. Higher endorsement of 'physical causes' was associated with mental illness labeling. However among the non-biomedical causal beliefs, 'general social causes' demonstrated no relationship with mental illness identification, while endorsement of 'indigenous Chinese beliefs' showed a negative relationship. Effective treatment- and community-based psychoeducation, in addition to emphasizing biomedical models, might integrate indigenous Chinese epistemologies of illness to facilitate rapid identification of psychotic disorders and promote treatment use.

  9. Causality analysis of diesel consumption and economic growth in Cameroon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tamba, Jean Gaston; Njomo, Donatien; Limanond, Thirayoot; Ntsafack, Borel

    2012-01-01

    This study examines the causal relationship between diesel consumption and economic growth in Cameroon by using a three-step modern time-series technique. Tests for unit roots, cointegration, and Granger-causality based on error correction model are employed on annual data covering the period 1975–2008. Empirical results of the study confirm the presence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between diesel consumption and economic growth. The error correction model shows that an estimated 1% increase in economic growth causes a rise in diesel consumption of 1.30% in the long-run. The overall results show that there exists bidirectional causality in the long-run relationship and no causality in the short-run relationship between diesel consumption and economic growth at the 5% level of significance. Thus, the energy policies in Cameroon should place priority on the discovery of new oil field and building capacity additions of the refinery to increase production of petroleum products, as this would propel the economic growth of the country. - Highlights: ► We examine the causal relationship between diesel consumption and GDP in Cameroon. ► we analyze the petroleum products sector in Cameroon. ► 1% increase in economic growth causes a rise in diesel consumption of 1.30%. ► The policy aimed at improving diesel supply have a positive impact on economics.

  10. Identifying the relationship between spiritual quotient and mental health in the students of Lorestan university of medical sciences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    sharareh khodabakhshi

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Background: In recent years, the students' mental health has attracted a lot of attention. Many factors effect on the mental health. Nowadays, spirituality is considered as one of the important aspects of the humanistic action, which has a permanent relation with health and recovery, so the main goal of this investigation is to identify the relationship between spiritual Quotient and mental health of the students of Lorestan university of medical sciences. Materials and Methods: The descriptive correlation method was applied in this investigation. The statistical population of this research consistsed of all the students (2238 of Lorestan university of medical sciences. Cochran's formula was used to determine the sample size, and 330 students were selected by the arbitrary relative categorized method. The instruments for data gathering were Goldberg's GHa-23 (1972 and spiritual intelligence of Badie et al. The instruments credit was measured through content validty and the reliability of the questionnaires using Cronbach's alpha method. Besides the indexes of the descriptive statistics such as mean and standard deviation, inferential statistics tests such as Pearson's coefficient correlation and multiple regression analysis and independent T test were utilized to analyze the data and testing the research hypothesizes. Results: The results showed that there is a positive relationship between spiritual quotient and the dimensions of the mental health (community orientation and moral dimension. "The ability to confront and deal with the problem", "moral virtues", "self-consciousness, love and interest". The dimension of "self-consciousness, love and interest" and "community orientation" have a significant role in predicting the mental health. Conclusion: Spiritual quotient has a positive influence on the individuals' mental health. The results show that people with a moral life are more healthy from the viewpoint of phycology.

  11. Dynamics of Quantum Causal Structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castro-Ruiz, Esteban; Giacomini, Flaminia; Brukner, Časlav

    2018-01-01

    It was recently suggested that causal structures are both dynamical, because of general relativity, and indefinite, because of quantum theory. The process matrix formalism furnishes a framework for quantum mechanics on indefinite causal structures, where the order between operations of local laboratories is not definite (e.g., one cannot say whether operation in laboratory A occurs before or after operation in laboratory B ). Here, we develop a framework for "dynamics of causal structures," i.e., for transformations of process matrices into process matrices. We show that, under continuous and reversible transformations, the causal order between operations is always preserved. However, the causal order between a subset of operations can be changed under continuous yet nonreversible transformations. An explicit example is that of the quantum switch, where a party in the past affects the causal order of operations of future parties, leading to a transition from a channel from A to B , via superposition of causal orders, to a channel from B to A . We generalize our framework to construct a hierarchy of quantum maps based on transformations of process matrices and transformations thereof.

  12. Dynamics of Quantum Causal Structures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Esteban Castro-Ruiz

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available It was recently suggested that causal structures are both dynamical, because of general relativity, and indefinite, because of quantum theory. The process matrix formalism furnishes a framework for quantum mechanics on indefinite causal structures, where the order between operations of local laboratories is not definite (e.g., one cannot say whether operation in laboratory A occurs before or after operation in laboratory B. Here, we develop a framework for “dynamics of causal structures,” i.e., for transformations of process matrices into process matrices. We show that, under continuous and reversible transformations, the causal order between operations is always preserved. However, the causal order between a subset of operations can be changed under continuous yet nonreversible transformations. An explicit example is that of the quantum switch, where a party in the past affects the causal order of operations of future parties, leading to a transition from a channel from A to B, via superposition of causal orders, to a channel from B to A. We generalize our framework to construct a hierarchy of quantum maps based on transformations of process matrices and transformations thereof.

  13. Principal stratification in causal inference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frangakis, Constantine E; Rubin, Donald B

    2002-03-01

    Many scientific problems require that treatment comparisons be adjusted for posttreatment variables, but the estimands underlying standard methods are not causal effects. To address this deficiency, we propose a general framework for comparing treatments adjusting for posttreatment variables that yields principal effects based on principal stratification. Principal stratification with respect to a posttreatment variable is a cross-classification of subjects defined by the joint potential values of that posttreatment variable tinder each of the treatments being compared. Principal effects are causal effects within a principal stratum. The key property of principal strata is that they are not affected by treatment assignment and therefore can be used just as any pretreatment covariate. such as age category. As a result, the central property of our principal effects is that they are always causal effects and do not suffer from the complications of standard posttreatment-adjusted estimands. We discuss briefly that such principal causal effects are the link between three recent applications with adjustment for posttreatment variables: (i) treatment noncompliance, (ii) missing outcomes (dropout) following treatment noncompliance. and (iii) censoring by death. We then attack the problem of surrogate or biomarker endpoints, where we show, using principal causal effects, that all current definitions of surrogacy, even when perfectly true, do not generally have the desired interpretation as causal effects of treatment on outcome. We go on to forrmulate estimands based on principal stratification and principal causal effects and show their superiority.

  14. Exploring causal networks of bovine milk fatty acids in a multivariate mixed model context

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bouwman, Aniek C; Valente, Bruno D; Janss, Luc L G

    2014-01-01

    Knowledge regarding causal relationships among traits is important to understand complex biological systems. Structural equation models (SEM) can be used to quantify the causal relations between traits, which allow prediction of outcomes to interventions applied to such a network. Such models...... are fitted conditionally on a causal structure among traits, represented by a directed acyclic graph and an Inductive Causation (IC) algorithm can be used to search for causal structures. The aim of this study was to explore the space of causal structures involving bovine milk fatty acids and to select...

  15. Coal consumption and economic growth nexus: Evidence from bootstrap panel Granger causality test

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anoruo Emmanuel

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper explores the causal relationship between coal consumption and economic growth for a panel of 15 African countries using bootstrap panel Granger causality test. Specifically, this paper uses the Phillips-Perron unit root test to ascertain the order of integration for the coal consumption and economic growth series. A bootstrap panel Granger causality test is employed to determine the direction of causality between coal consumption and economic growth. The results provide evidence of unidirectional causality from economic growth to coal consumption. This finding implies that coal conservation measures may be implemented with little or no adverse impact on economic growth for the sample countries as a group.

  16. Causal boundary for stably causal space-times

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Racz, I.

    1987-12-01

    The usual boundary constructions for space-times often yield an unsatisfactory boundary set. This problem is reviewed and a new solution is proposed. An explicit identification rule is given on the set of the ideal points of the space-time. This construction leads to a satisfactory boundary point set structure for stably causal space-times. The topological properties of the resulting causal boundary construction are examined. For the stably causal space-times each causal curve has a unique endpoint on the boundary set according to the extended Alexandrov topology. The extension of the space-time through the boundary is discussed. To describe the singularities the defined boundary sets have to be separated into two disjoint sets. (D.Gy.) 8 refs

  17. Do children stabilize relationships in Denmark?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Svarer, Michael; Verner, Mette

    2008-01-01

    , Econometrica 71(5):1491-1517, 2003) to identify the causal effect of births on the dissolution hazard. We show that couples who are less prone to split up are more prone to invest in children, and therefore, one might (mistakenly) conclude that children stabilize relationships. However, when correcting...

  18. An Action Research Inquiry into the Relationship Among Aerobic Activities, Memory, and Stress with Students Identified as Gifted

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ford, Denise Marie

    Students identified as gifted come from varying socio-economic strata and nationalities with a range of talents and temperaments comprising a diverse community. They may experience stress for a variety of reasons. Although a certain amount of stress can enhance the learning process, too much stress can impede learning, especially memory. Strategies have been offered for relieving stress, yet the benefits of physical activities as stress reducers for the gifted have frequently been overlooked. The purpose of this study was to investigate the relationship among aerobic activity, stress, and memory ability in students in an elementary school gifted program. An exceptional aspect of this research was that the students were an integral part of their own study. As co-researchers they had a vested interest in what they were doing, enhancing the significance of the experience and heightening learning. This action research project conducted in a mid-western school district with fourth and fifth grade students examined the impact of aerobic movement on physical indicators of stress and memory. The study lasted twelve weeks with data collected on physical indicators of stress, memory test scores, parent observations, interviews with students, a parent focus group session, observational data, student comments, and investigator/teacher journal. By infusing regular exercise into curricula, stress levels in students identified as gifted were examined. Students' scores on declarative memory tasks conducted with and without an accompanying aerobic activity were documented. Students learned of the delicate relationship between stress and memory as they studied the physiology of the brain. Twenty-four hour retention rates of declarative memory items were higher when a 20-minute aerobic activity intervention preceded the memory activity. Perceived stress levels were lowered for 14 of the 16 co-researchers. Students indicated a positive attitude toward physical activity and its

  19. Is There a Causal Relation between Mathematical Creativity and Mathematical Problem-Solving Performance?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tyagi, Tarun Kumar

    2016-01-01

    The relationship between mathematical creativity (MC) and mathematical problem-solving performance (MP) has often been studied but the causal relation between these two constructs has yet to be clearly reported. The main purpose of this study was to define the causal relationship between MC and MP. Data from a representative sample of 480…

  20. Causal boundary for strongly causal spacetimes: Pt. 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Szabados, L.B.

    1989-01-01

    In a previous paper an analysis of the general structure of the causal boundary constructions and a new explicit identification rule, built up from elementary TIP-TIF gluings, were presented. In the present paper we complete our identification by incorporating TIP-TIP and TIF-TIF gluings as well. An asymptotic causality condition is found which, for physically important cases, ensures the uniqueness of the endpoints of the non-spacelike curves in the completed spacetime. (author)

  1. Classical planning and causal implicatures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blackburn, Patrick Rowan; Benotti, Luciana

    In this paper we motivate and describe a dialogue manager (called Frolog) which uses classical planning to infer causal implicatures. A causal implicature is a type of Gricean relation implicature, a highly context dependent form of inference. As we shall see, causal implicatures are important...... to generate clarification requests"; as a result we can model task-oriented dialogue as an interactive process locally structured by negotiation of the underlying task. We give several examples of Frolog-human dialog, discuss the limitations imposed by the classical planning paradigm, and indicate...

  2. Functional equations with causal operators

    CERN Document Server

    Corduneanu, C

    2003-01-01

    Functional equations encompass most of the equations used in applied science and engineering: ordinary differential equations, integral equations of the Volterra type, equations with delayed argument, and integro-differential equations of the Volterra type. The basic theory of functional equations includes functional differential equations with causal operators. Functional Equations with Causal Operators explains the connection between equations with causal operators and the classical types of functional equations encountered by mathematicians and engineers. It details the fundamentals of linear equations and stability theory and provides several applications and examples.

  3. New Insights into Signed Path Coefficient Granger Causality Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Jian; Li, Chong; Jiang, Tianzi

    2016-01-01

    Granger causality analysis, as a time series analysis technique derived from econometrics, has been applied in an ever-increasing number of publications in the field of neuroscience, including fMRI, EEG/MEG, and fNIRS. The present study mainly focuses on the validity of "signed path coefficient Granger causality," a Granger-causality-derived analysis method that has been adopted by many fMRI researches in the last few years. This method generally estimates the causality effect among the time series by an order-1 autoregression, and defines a positive or negative coefficient as an "excitatory" or "inhibitory" influence. In the current work we conducted a series of computations from resting-state fMRI data and simulation experiments to illustrate the signed path coefficient method was flawed and untenable, due to the fact that the autoregressive coefficients were not always consistent with the real causal relationships and this would inevitablely lead to erroneous conclusions. Overall our findings suggested that the applicability of this kind of causality analysis was rather limited, hence researchers should be more cautious in applying the signed path coefficient Granger causality to fMRI data to avoid misinterpretation.

  4. Causal Learning in Gambling Disorder: Beyond the Illusion of Control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perales, José C; Navas, Juan F; Ruiz de Lara, Cristian M; Maldonado, Antonio; Catena, Andrés

    2017-06-01

    Causal learning is the ability to progressively incorporate raw information about dependencies between events, or between one's behavior and its outcomes, into beliefs of the causal structure of the world. In spite of the fact that some cognitive biases in gambling disorder can be described as alterations of causal learning involving gambling-relevant cues, behaviors, and outcomes, general causal learning mechanisms in gamblers have not been systematically investigated. In the present study, we compared gambling disorder patients against controls in an instrumental causal learning task. Evidence of illusion of control, namely, overestimation of the relationship between one's behavior and an uncorrelated outcome, showed up only in gamblers with strong current symptoms. Interestingly, this effect was part of a more complex pattern, in which gambling disorder patients manifested a poorer ability to discriminate between null and positive contingencies. Additionally, anomalies were related to gambling severity and current gambling disorder symptoms. Gambling-related biases, as measured by a standard psychometric tool, correlated with performance in the causal learning task, but not in the expected direction. Indeed, performance of gamblers with stronger biases tended to resemble the one of controls, which could imply that anomalies of causal learning processes play a role in gambling disorder, but do not seem to underlie gambling-specific biases, at least in a simple, direct way.

  5. Energy consumption and economic growth for selected OECD countries: Further evidence from the Granger causality test in the frequency domain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bozoklu, Seref; Yilanci, Veli

    2013-01-01

    This paper aims to reexamine the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth for 20 OECD countries. To that end, we employ a Granger causality test in the frequency domain which allows us to distinguish short (temporary) and long-run (permanent) causality. The empirical results could be summarized as following. First, in terms of causality running from GDP to energy consumption, there is a temporary relationship for Australia, Austria, Canada, Italy, Japan, Mexico, the Netherlands, Portugal, the UK, the USA, and a permanent relationship for Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Germany, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Norway, and the USA. Second, in terms of causality running from energy consumption to GDP, there is a temporary relationship for Austria, Denmark, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway and Portugal, and a permanent relationship for Belgium, Finland, Greece, Italy, Japan, and Portugal. The main implication of our finding is that the energy policies should take into consideration not only the causality direction between economic growth and energy consumption but also whether it is temporal or permanent and furthermore authorities must design policy actions accordingly. - Highlights: • This study reexamines the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth. • We employ frequency causality analysis to determine temporary and permanent causality. • The results provide evidence of both temporary and permanent causality relationships for countries examined. • Energy policies should consider whether the causality is temporal or permanent

  6. SYSTEMATIC\tUSE\tOF CAUSALITY ASSESSMENT IN AEFI SURVEILLANCE: A 2013-2016 PILOT STUDY IN PUGLIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pasquale Stefanizzi

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Causality assessment is an algorithm proposed by WHO to identify a causal relationship between vaccines and adverse events following immunization (AEFIs, mostly for serious adverse events. It can be considered consistent, inconsistent, indeterminate or unclassifiable. This study describes AEFIs reported in Puglia from 2013 to 2016 and analyzes the differences between the causality assessments performed on AEFI case-report information and the causality assessments performed after the examination of clinical documentation. 292 AEFI were reported: 191 (65.4% non serious, 59 (20.2% serious and 42 (14.4% undefined. Causality assessment performed on the AEFI case-report information classified 59.2% (n=29/49 of serious AEFIs as consistent while assessment performed after clinical review only classified 30.6% (n=15/49 of serious AEFI as consistent (X2=65.0; p=0,000. In the first approach, inconsistent serious AEFIs were 18.6% (n=11/49 and then became 45.8% (n=27/49 after examination of clinical documentation. Indeterminate serious AEFIs were 6.8% (n=4 at first, and then 3.4% (n=2. Unclassifiables did not change.

  7. Identifying the Relationships between Water Quality and Land Cover Changes in the Tseng-Wen Reservoir Watershed of Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hone-Jay Chu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The effects on water quality of land use and land cover changes, which are associated with human activities and natural factors, are poorly identified. Fine resolution satellite imagery provides opportunities for land cover monitoring and assessment. The multiple satellite images after typhoon events collected from 2001 to 2010 covering land areas and land cover conditions are evaluated by the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI. The relationship between land cover and observed water quality, such as suspended solids (SS and nitrate-nitrogens (NO3-N, are explored in the study area. Results show that the long-term variations in water quality are explained by NDVI data in the reservoir buffer zones. Suspended solid and nitrate concentrations are related to average NDVI values on multiple spatial scales. Annual NO3-N concentrations are positively correlated with an average NDVI with a 1 km reservoir buffer area, and the SS after typhoon events associated with landslides are negatively correlated with the average NDVI in the entire watershed. This study provides an approach for assessing the influences of land cover on variations in water quality.

  8. Identifying the relationship of parenting styles and parent’s perfectionism with normal students’ and gifted students’ perfectionism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alireza Kakavand

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Psychologists stated that parents’ functions and behaviors influence the formation of children’s thoughts, behaviors and emotions This study aimed to identify the relationship of parenting styles and parents’ perfectionism with normal students’ perfectionism and gifted students’ perfectionism. The study is a descriptive correlation study. The population consisted of all normal and gifted female high school students of Karaj. A sample of 200 students was selected using random sampling method. Data was collected using Hill’s perfectionism questionnaire and BAUMRIND’s parenting styles questionnaire. Researcher used simultaneous multivariate regression and independent sample t-test methods for data analysis. The results showed that there is a statistically significant difference between perfectionism of normal student’s parents and perfectionism of gifted student’s parents but there is no statistically significant difference between their parenting styles. There is a statistically significant difference between perfectionism of normal students and perfectionism of gifted students. Results also showed that adaptive and maladaptive perfectionism of students are not predictable based on the perfectionism and parenting styles of parents.

  9. Multiethnic meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies in >100 000 subjects identifies 23 fibrinogen-associated Loci but no strong evidence of a causal association between circulating fibrinogen and cardiovascular disease

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sabater-Lleal, M.; Huang, J.; Chasman, D.I.; Naitza, S.; Dehghan, A.; Johnson, A.D.; Teumer, A.; Reiner, A.P.; Folkersen, L.; Basu, S.; Rudnicka, A.R.; Trompet, S.; Mälarstig, A.; Baumert, J.; Bis, J.C.; Guo, X.; Hottenga, J.J.; Shin, S.Y.; Lopez, L.M.; Lahti, J.; Tanaka, T.; Yanek, L.R.; Oudot-Mellakh, T.; Wilson, J.F.; Navarro, P.; Huffman, J.E.; Zemunik, T.; Redline, S.; Mehra, R.; Pulanic, D.; Rudan, I.; Wright, A.F.; Kolcic, I.; Polasek, O.; Wild, S.H.; Campbell, H.; Curb, J.D.; Wallace, R.; Liu, S.; Eaton, C.B.; Becker, D.M.; Becker, L.C.; Bandinelli, S.; Räikkönen, K.; Widén, E.; Palotie, A.; Fornage, M.; Green, D.; Gross, M.; Davies, G.E.; Harris, S.E.; Liewald, D.C.; Starr, J.M.; Williams, F.M.; Grant, P.J.; Spector, T.D.; Strawbridge, R.J.; Silveira, A.; Sennblad, B.; Rivadeneira, F.; Uitterlinden, A.G.; Franco, O.H.; Hofman, A.; van Dongen, J.; Willemsen, G.; Boomsma, D.I.; Yao, J.; Swords Jenny, N.; Haritunians, T.; McKnight, B.; Lumley, T.; Taylor, K.D.; Rotter, J.I.; Psaty, B.M.; Peters, A.; Gieger, C.; Illig, T.; Grotevendt, A.; Homuth, G.; Völzke, H.; Kocher, T.; Goel, A.; Franzosi, M.G.; Seedorf, U.; Clarke, R.; Steri, M.; Tarasov, K.V.; Sanna, S.; Schlessinger, D.; Stott, D.J.; Sattar, N.; Buckley, B.M.; Rumley, A.; Lowe, G.D.; McArdle, W.L.; Chen, M.H.; Tofler, G.H.; Song, J.; Boerwinkle, E.; Folsom, A.R.; Rose, L.M.; Franco-Cereceda, A.; Teichert, M.; Ikram, M.A.; Mosley, T.H.; Bevan, S.; Dichgans, M.; Rothwell, P.M.; Sudlow, C.L.; Hopewell, J.C.; Chambers, J.C.; Saleheen, D.; Kooner, J.S.; Danesh, J.; Nelson, C.P.; Erdmann, J.; Reilly, M.P.; Kathiresan, S.; Schunkert, H.; Morange, P.E.; Ferrucci, L.; Eriksson, J.G.; Jacobs, D.; Deary, I.J.; Soranzo, N.; Witteman, J.C.; de Geus, E.J.C.; Tracy, R.P.; Hayward, C.; Koenig, W.; Cucca, F.; Jukema, J.W.; Eriksson, P.; Seshadri, S.; Markus, H.S.; Watkins, H.; Samani, N.J.; Wallaschofski, H.; Smith, N.L.; Tregouet, D.A.; Ridker, P.M.; Tang, W.; Strachan, D.P.; Hamsten, A.; O'Donnell, C.J.

    2013-01-01

    BACKGROUND-: Estimates of the heritability of plasma fibrinogen concentration, an established predictor of cardiovascular disease, range from 34% to 50%. Genetic variants so far identified by genome-wide association studies explain only a small proportion (<2%) of its variation. METHODS AND

  10. Multiethnic meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies in >100 000 subjects identifies 23 fibrinogen-associated Loci but no strong evidence of a causal association between circulating fibrinogen and cardiovascular disease

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sabater-Lleal, M.; Huang, J.; Chasman, D.; Naitza, S.; Dehghan, A.; Johnson, A.D.; Teumer, A.; Reiner, A.P.; Folkersen, L.; Basu, S.; Rudnicka, A.R.; Trompet, S.; Malarstig, A.; Baumert, J.; Bis, J.C.; Guo, X.; Hottenga, J.J.; Shin, S.Y.; Lopez, L.M.; Lahti, J.; Tanaka, T.; Yanek, L.R.; Oudot-Mellakh, T.; Wilson, J.F.; Navarro, P.; Huffman, J.E.; Zemunik, T.; Redline, S.; Mehra, R.; Pulanic, D.; Rudan, I.; Wright, A.F.; Kolcic, I.; Polasek, O.; Wild, S.H.; Campbell, H.; Curb, J.D.; Wallace, R.; Liu, S.; Eaton, C.B.; Becker, D.M.; Becker, L.C.; Bandinelli, S.; Raikkonen, K.; Widen, E.; Palotie, A.; Fornage, M.; Green, D.; Gross, M.; Davies, G.; Harris, S.E.; Liewald, D.C.; Starr, J.M.; Williams, F.M.; Grant, P.J.; Spector, T.D.; Strawbridge, R.J.; Silveira, A.; Sennblad, B.; Rivadeneira, F.; Uitterlinden, A.G.; Franco, O.H.; Hofman, A.; Dongen, J. Van; Willemsen, G.; Boomsma, D.I.; Yao, J.; Jenny, N. Swords; Haritunians, T.; McKnight, B.; Lumley, T.; Taylor, K.D.; Rotter, J.I.; Psaty, B.M.; Peters, A.; Gieger, C.; Illig, T.; Grotevendt, A.; Homuth, G.; Volzke, H.; Kocher, T.; Goel, A.; Franzosi, M.G.; Seedorf, U.; Clarke, R.; Steri, M.; Tarasov, K.V.; Sanna, S.; Schlessinger, D.; Stott, D.J.; Sattar, N.; Buckley, B.M.; Rumley, A.; Lowe, G.D.; McArdle, W.L.; Chen, M.H.; Tofler, G.H.; Song, J.; Boerwinkle, E.; Folsom, A.R.; Teichert, M.; et al.,

    2013-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Estimates of the heritability of plasma fibrinogen concentration, an established predictor of cardiovascular disease, range from 34% to 50%. Genetic variants so far identified by genome-wide association studies explain only a small proportion (<2%) of its variation. METHODS AND RESULTS:

  11. Spatial Causality. An application to the Deforestation Process in Bolivia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Javier Aliaga

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper analyses the causes of deforestation for a representative set of Bolivian municipalities. The literature on environmental economics insists on the importance of physical and social factors. We focus on the last group of variables. Our objective is to identify causal mechanisms between these factors of risk and the problem of deforestation. To this end, we present a testing strategy for spatial causality, based on a sequence of Lagrange Multipliers. The results that we obtain for the Bolivian case confirm only partially the traditional view of the problem of deforestation. Indeed, we only find unequivocal signs of causality in relation to the structure of property rights.

  12. Causal Modelling in Evaluation Research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winteler, Adolf

    1983-01-01

    A study applied path analysis methods, using new techniques of causal analysis, to the problem of predicting the achievement, dropout rate, and satisfaction of university students. Besides providing explanations, the technique indicates possible remedial measures. (MSE)

  13. Consciousness and the "Causal Paradox"

    OpenAIRE

    Velmans, Max

    1996-01-01

    Viewed from a first-person perspective consciousness appears to be necessary for complex, novel human activity - but viewed from a third-person perspective consciousness appears to play no role in the activity of brains, producing a "causal paradox". To resolve this paradox one needs to distinguish consciousness of processing from consciousness accompanying processing or causing processing. Accounts of consciousness/brain causal interactions switch between first- and third-person perspectives...

  14. Correlation set analysis: detecting active regulators in disease populations using prior causal knowledge

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huang Chia-Ling

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Identification of active causal regulators is a crucial problem in understanding mechanism of diseases or finding drug targets. Methods that infer causal regulators directly from primary data have been proposed and successfully validated in some cases. These methods necessarily require very large sample sizes or a mix of different data types. Recent studies have shown that prior biological knowledge can successfully boost a method's ability to find regulators. Results We present a simple data-driven method, Correlation Set Analysis (CSA, for comprehensively detecting active regulators in disease populations by integrating co-expression analysis and a specific type of literature-derived causal relationships. Instead of investigating the co-expression level between regulators and their regulatees, we focus on coherence of regulatees of a regulator. Using simulated datasets we show that our method performs very well at recovering even weak regulatory relationships with a low false discovery rate. Using three separate real biological datasets we were able to recover well known and as yet undescribed, active regulators for each disease population. The results are represented as a rank-ordered list of regulators, and reveals both single and higher-order regulatory relationships. Conclusions CSA is an intuitive data-driven way of selecting directed perturbation experiments that are relevant to a disease population of interest and represent a starting point for further investigation. Our findings demonstrate that combining co-expression analysis on regulatee sets with a literature-derived network can successfully identify causal regulators and help develop possible hypothesis to explain disease progression.

  15. Causal inference in nonlinear systems: Granger causality versus time-delayed mutual information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Songting; Xiao, Yanyang; Zhou, Douglas; Cai, David

    2018-05-01

    The Granger causality (GC) analysis has been extensively applied to infer causal interactions in dynamical systems arising from economy and finance, physics, bioinformatics, neuroscience, social science, and many other fields. In the presence of potential nonlinearity in these systems, the validity of the GC analysis in general is questionable. To illustrate this, here we first construct minimal nonlinear systems and show that the GC analysis fails to infer causal relations in these systems—it gives rise to all types of incorrect causal directions. In contrast, we show that the time-delayed mutual information (TDMI) analysis is able to successfully identify the direction of interactions underlying these nonlinear systems. We then apply both methods to neuroscience data collected from experiments and demonstrate that the TDMI analysis but not the GC analysis can identify the direction of interactions among neuronal signals. Our work exemplifies inference hazards in the GC analysis in nonlinear systems and suggests that the TDMI analysis can be an appropriate tool in such a case.

  16. Selective Entrainment of Theta Oscillations in the Dorsal Stream Causally Enhances Auditory Working Memory Performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albouy, Philippe; Weiss, Aurélien; Baillet, Sylvain; Zatorre, Robert J

    2017-04-05

    The implication of the dorsal stream in manipulating auditory information in working memory has been recently established. However, the oscillatory dynamics within this network and its causal relationship with behavior remain undefined. Using simultaneous MEG/EEG, we show that theta oscillations in the dorsal stream predict participants' manipulation abilities during memory retention in a task requiring the comparison of two patterns differing in temporal order. We investigated the causal relationship between brain oscillations and behavior by applying theta-rhythmic TMS combined with EEG over the MEG-identified target (left intraparietal sulcus) during the silent interval between the two stimuli. Rhythmic TMS entrained theta oscillation and boosted participants' accuracy. TMS-induced oscillatory entrainment scaled with behavioral enhancement, and both gains varied with participants' baseline abilities. These effects were not seen for a melody-comparison control task and were not observed for arrhythmic TMS. These data establish theta activity in the dorsal stream as causally related to memory manipulation. VIDEO ABSTRACT. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. THE METHODOLOGY OF TESTING THE CAUSALITY BETWEEN THE ROMANIAN MUTUAL FUNDS MARKET AND THE ECONOMY’S DYNAMICS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ioana RADU

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper tests and evaluates the causality between the dynamics of the Romanian mutual fund market and the economy. Using the Granger causality test, a regression analysis has been developed on quarterly data during 2004Q3 – 2012Q2 for the Romanian economy. Based on this relationship, we can emphasize that the controversial debate upon the economic growth and the mutual fund market has became a complex research subject. Therefore, due to its complexity, the timeliness and the continuous growth of the investment funds area, this paper complements the existing literature by identifying the causal linkage between the mutual fund market and the economy. The paper is organized as it follows. First part presents the main premises that have emphasized our research. Second part presents a brief literature review and extracts the studies that appreciate best the relationship between the analyzed variables. Next section is set on defining the potential correlation between the analyzed variables. Then, section 4 tests the causality by using the R facility. The last part concludes.

  18. Causality between public policies and exports of renewable energy technologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sung, Bongsuk; Song, Woo-Yong

    2013-01-01

    This article investigates the causal relationship between public policies and exports of renewable energy technologies using panel data from 18 countries for the period 1991–2007. A number of panel unit root and cointegration tests are applied. Time series data on public policies and exports are integrated and cointegrated. The dynamic OLS results indicate that in the long run, a 1% increase in government R and D expenditures (RAD) increases exports (EX) by 0.819%. EX and RAD variables respond to deviations from the long-run equilibrium in the previous period. Additionally, the Blundell–Bond system generalized methods of moments (GMM) is employed to conduct a panel causality test in a vector error-correction mechanism (VECM) setting. Evidence of a bidirectional and short-run, and strong causal relationship between EX and the contribution of renewable energy to the total energy supply (CRES) is uncovered. CRES has a negative effect on EX, whereas EX has a positive effect on CRES. We suggest some policy implications based on the results of this study. - Highlights: ► We model VECM to test the Granger causality between the policies and the export. ► Technology-push policy has a positive impact on export in the long-run. ► There are the short-run causal relationships between market-pull policy and export

  19. Regression to Causality : Regression-style presentation influences causal attribution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bordacconi, Mats Joe; Larsen, Martin Vinæs

    2014-01-01

    of equivalent results presented as either regression models or as a test of two sample means. Our experiment shows that the subjects who were presented with results as estimates from a regression model were more inclined to interpret these results causally. Our experiment implies that scholars using regression...... models – one of the primary vehicles for analyzing statistical results in political science – encourage causal interpretation. Specifically, we demonstrate that presenting observational results in a regression model, rather than as a simple comparison of means, makes causal interpretation of the results...... more likely. Our experiment drew on a sample of 235 university students from three different social science degree programs (political science, sociology and economics), all of whom had received substantial training in statistics. The subjects were asked to compare and evaluate the validity...

  20. Putting a cap on causality violations in causal dynamical triangulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ambjoern, Jan; Loll, Renate; Westra, Willem; Zohren, Stefan

    2007-01-01

    The formalism of causal dynamical triangulations (CDT) provides us with a non-perturbatively defined model of quantum gravity, where the sum over histories includes only causal space-time histories. Path integrals of CDT and their continuum limits have been studied in two, three and four dimensions. Here we investigate a generalization of the two-dimensional CDT model, where the causality constraint is partially lifted by introducing branching points with a weight g s , and demonstrate that the system can be solved analytically in the genus-zero sector. The solution is analytic in a neighborhood around weight g s = 0 and cannot be analytically continued to g s = ∞, where the branching is entirely geometric and where one would formally recover standard Euclidean two-dimensional quantum gravity defined via dynamical triangulations or Liouville theory

  1. Causality and analyticity in optics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nussenzveig, H.M.

    In order to provide an overall picture of the broad range of optical phenomena that are directly linked with the concepts of causality and analyticity, the following topics are briefly reviewed, emphasizing recent developments: 1) Derivation of dispersion relations for the optical constants of general linear media from causality. Application to the theory of natural optical activity. 2) Derivation of sum rules for the optical constants from causality and from the short-time response function (asymptotic high-frequency behavior). Average spectral behavior of optical media. Applications. 3) Role of spectral conditions. Analytic properties of coherence functions in quantum optics. Reconstruction theorem.4) Phase retrieval problems. 5) Inverse scattering problems. 6) Solution of nonlinear evolution equations in optics by inverse scattering methods. Application to self-induced transparency. Causality in nonlinear wave propagation. 7) Analytic continuation in frequency and angular momentum. Complex singularities. Resonances and natural-mode expansions. Regge poles. 8) Wigner's causal inequality. Time delay. Spatial displacements in total reflection. 9) Analyticity in diffraction theory. Complex angular momentum theory of Mie scattering. Diffraction as a barrier tunnelling effect. Complex trajectories in optics. (Author) [pt

  2. Entropy for theories with indefinite causal structure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Markes, Sonia; Hardy, Lucien

    2011-01-01

    Any theory with definite causal structure has a defined past and future, be it defined by light cones or an absolute time scale. Entropy is a concept that has traditionally been reliant on a definite notion of causality. However, without a definite notion of causality, the concept of entropy is not all lost. Indefinite causal structure results from combining probabilistic predictions and dynamical space-time. The causaloid framework lays the mathematical groundwork to be able to treat indefinite causal structure. In this paper, we build on the causaloid mathematics and define a causally-unbiased entropy for an indefinite causal structure. In defining a causally-unbiased entropy, there comes about an emergent idea of causality in the form of a measure of causal connectedness, termed the Q factor.

  3. Is there a Causal Effect of High School Math on Labor Market Outcomes?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Joensen, Juanna Schrøter; Nielsen, Helena Skyt

    Outsourcing of jobs to low-wage countries has increased the focus onthe accumulation of skills - such as Math skills - in high-wage countries.In this paper, we exploit a high school pilot scheme to identify the causaleffect of advanced high school Math on labor market outcomes. The pilotscheme...... reduced the costs of choosing advanced Math because it allowedfor at more flexible combination of Math with other courses. We findclear evidence of a causal relationship between Math and earnings for thestudents who are induced to choose Math after being exposed to the pilotscheme. The effect partly stems...

  4. Links between causal effects and causal association for surrogacy evaluation in a gaussian setting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conlon, Anna; Taylor, Jeremy; Li, Yun; Diaz-Ordaz, Karla; Elliott, Michael

    2017-11-30

    Two paradigms for the evaluation of surrogate markers in randomized clinical trials have been proposed: the causal effects paradigm and the causal association paradigm. Each of these paradigms rely on assumptions that must be made to proceed with estimation and to validate a candidate surrogate marker (S) for the true outcome of interest (T). We consider the setting in which S and T are Gaussian and are generated from structural models that include an unobserved confounder. Under the assumed structural models, we relate the quantities used to evaluate surrogacy within both the causal effects and causal association frameworks. We review some of the common assumptions made to aid in estimating these quantities and show that assumptions made within one framework can imply strong assumptions within the alternative framework. We demonstrate that there is a similarity, but not exact correspondence between the quantities used to evaluate surrogacy within each framework, and show that the conditions for identifiability of the surrogacy parameters are different from the conditions, which lead to a correspondence of these quantities. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  5. mediation: R package for causal mediation analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Tingley, Dustin; Yamamoto, Teppei; Hirose, Kentaro; Keele, Luke; Imai, Kosuke

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, we describe the R package mediation for conducting causal mediation analysis in applied empirical research. In many scientific disciplines, the goal of researchers is not only estimating causal effects of a treatment but also understanding the process in which the treatment causally affects the outcome. Causal mediation analysis is frequently used to assess potential causal mechanisms. The mediation package implements a comprehensive suite of statistical tools for conducting su...

  6. A Causal Theory of Modality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Tomás Alvarado

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available This work presents a causal conception of metaphysical modality in which a state of affairs is metaphysically possible if and only if it can be caused (in the past, the present or the future by current entities. The conception is contrasted with what is called the “combinatorial” conception of modality, in which everything can co-exist with anything else. This work explains how the notion of ‘causality’ should be construed in the causal theory, what difference exists between modalities thus defined from nomological modality, how accessibility relations between possible worlds should be interpreted, and what is the relation between the causal conception and the necessity of origin.

  7. Causal reasoning with mental models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khemlani, Sangeet S.; Barbey, Aron K.; Johnson-Laird, Philip N.

    2014-01-01

    This paper outlines the model-based theory of causal reasoning. It postulates that the core meanings of causal assertions are deterministic and refer to temporally-ordered sets of possibilities: A causes B to occur means that given A, B occurs, whereas A enables B to occur means that given A, it is possible for B to occur. The paper shows how mental models represent such assertions, and how these models underlie deductive, inductive, and abductive reasoning yielding explanations. It reviews evidence both to corroborate the theory and to account for phenomena sometimes taken to be incompatible with it. Finally, it reviews neuroscience evidence indicating that mental models for causal inference are implemented within lateral prefrontal cortex. PMID:25389398

  8. Causal reasoning with mental models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khemlani, Sangeet S; Barbey, Aron K; Johnson-Laird, Philip N

    2014-01-01

    This paper outlines the model-based theory of causal reasoning. It postulates that the core meanings of causal assertions are deterministic and refer to temporally-ordered sets of possibilities: A causes B to occur means that given A, B occurs, whereas A enables B to occur means that given A, it is possible for B to occur. The paper shows how mental models represent such assertions, and how these models underlie deductive, inductive, and abductive reasoning yielding explanations. It reviews evidence both to corroborate the theory and to account for phenomena sometimes taken to be incompatible with it. Finally, it reviews neuroscience evidence indicating that mental models for causal inference are implemented within lateral prefrontal cortex.

  9. Causal reasoning with mental models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sangeet eKhemlani

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper outlines the model-based theory of causal reasoning. It postulates that the core meanings of causal assertions are deterministic and refer to temporally-ordered sets of possibilities: A causes B to occur means that given A, B occurs, whereas A enables B to occur means that given A, it is possible for B to occur. The paper shows how mental models represent such assertions, and how these models underlie deductive, inductive, and abductive reasoning yielding explanations. It reviews evidence both to corroborate the theory and to account for phenomena sometimes taken to be incompatible with it. Finally, it reviews neuroscience evidence indicating that mental models for causal inference are implemented within lateral prefrontal cortex.

  10. Granger Causality and Unit Roots

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rodríguez-Caballero, Carlos Vladimir; Ventosa-Santaulària, Daniel

    2014-01-01

    The asymptotic behavior of the Granger-causality test under stochastic nonstationarity is studied. Our results confirm that the inference drawn from the test is not reliable when the series are integrated to the first order. In the presence of deterministic components, the test statistic diverges......, eventually rejecting the null hypothesis, even when the series are independent of each other. Moreover, controlling for these deterministic elements (in the auxiliary regressions of the test) does not preclude the possibility of drawing erroneous inferences. Granger-causality tests should not be used under...

  11. Quantum theory and local causality

    CERN Document Server

    Hofer-Szabó, Gábor

    2018-01-01

    This book summarizes the results of research the authors have pursued in the past years on the problem of implementing Bell's notion of local causality in local physical theories and relating it to other important concepts and principles in the foundations of physics such as the Common Cause Principle, Bell's inequalities, the EPR (Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen) scenario, and various other locality and causality concepts. The book is intended for philosophers of science with an interest in the formal background of sciences, philosophers of physics and physicists working in foundation of physics.

  12. Genetic relationships in an international collection of Puccinia horiana isolates based on newly identified molecular markers and demonstration of recombination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Backer, M; Bonants, P; Pedley, K F; Maes, M; Roldan-Ruiz, I; Van Bockstaele, E; Heungens, K; van der Lee, T

    2013-11-01

    The obligate biotrophic pathogen Puccinia horiana is the causal agent of chrysanthemum white rust. Although P. horiana is a quarantine organism, it has been able to spread to most chrysanthemum-producing regions in the world since the 1960s; however, the transfer routes are largely obscure. An extremely low level of allelic diversity was observed in a geographically diverse set of eight isolates using complexity reduction of polymorphic sequences (CRoPS) technology. Only 184 of the 16,196 contigs (1.1%) showed one or more single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). Thirty-two SNPs and one simple-sequence repeat were translated into molecular markers and used to genotype 45 isolates originating from North and South America, Asia, and Europe. In most cases, phylogenetic clustering was related to geographic origin, indicating local establishment. The European isolates mostly grouped in two major populations that may relate to the two historic introductions previously reported. However, evidence of recent geographic transfer was also observed, including transfer events between Europe and South America and between Southeast Asia and Europe. In contrast with the presumed clonal propagation of this microcyclic rust, strong indications of marker recombination were observed, presumably as a result of anastomosis, karyogamy, and somatic meiosis. Recombination and transfer also explain the geographic dispersal of specific markers. A near-to-significant correlation between the genotypic data and previously obtained pathotype data was observed and one marker was associated with the most virulent pathotype group. In combination with a fast SNP detection method, the markers presented here will be helpful tools to further elucidate the transfer pathways and local survival of this pathogen.

  13. The causality between energy consumption and economic growth in Turkey

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Erdal, Guelistan; Erdal, Hilmi; Esenguen, Kemal

    2008-01-01

    This paper applies the causality test to examine the causal relationship between primary energy consumption (EC) and real Gross National Product (GNP) for Turkey during 1970-2006. We employ unit root tests, the augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and the Philips-Perron (PP), Johansen cointegration test, and Pair-wise Granger causality test to examine relation between EC and GNP. Our empirical results indicate that the two series are found to be non-stationary. However, first differences of these series lead to stationarity. Further, the results indicate that EC and GNP are cointegrated and there is bidirectional causality running from EC to GNP and vice versa. This means that an increase in EC directly affects economic growth and that economic growth also stimulates further EC. This bidirectional causality relationship between EC and GNP determined for Turkey at 1970-2006 period is in accordance with the ones in literature reported for similar countries. Consequently, we conclude that energy is a limiting factor to economic growth in Turkey and, hence, shocks to energy supply will have a negative impact on economic growth

  14. Causal attributions in Brazilian children's reasoning about health and illness

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Boruchovitch Evely

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: At a time when a great number of diseases can be prevented by changing one's habits and life style, investigations have focused on understanding what adults and children believe to be desirable health practices and uncovering the factors associated with successful adherence to such practices. For these, causal attributions for health and illness were investigated among 96 Brazilian elementary school students. METHODS: Ninety six subjects, aged 6 to 14, were interviewed individually and their causal attributions were assessed through 14 true-false items (e.g. people stay well [healthy] because they are lucky. The relationship between the children's causal attributions and demographic characteristics were also examined. RESULTS: Overall, the results were consistent with previous researches. "Taking care of oneself" was considered the most important cause of good health. "Viruses and germs" and "lack of self-care" were the most selected causes of illness. Analyses revealed significant relationship between subjects' causal attribution and their age, school grade level, socioeconomic status and gender. CONCLUSIONS: The study findings suggest that there may be more cross-cultural similarities than differences in children's causal attributions for health and illness. Finding ways to help individuals engage in appropriate preventive-maintenance health practices without developing an exaggerated notion that the individuals can control their own health and illness is a challenge which remains to be addressed by further research.

  15. Causality and complexity: the myth of objectivity in science.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mikulecky, Donald C

    2007-10-01

    Two distinctly different worldviews dominate today's thinking in science and in the world of ideas outside of science. Using the approach advocated by Robert M. Hutchins, it is possible to see a pattern of interaction between ideas in science and in other spheres such as philosophy, religion, and politics. Instead of compartmentalizing these intellectual activities, it is worthwhile to look for common threads of mutual influence. Robert Rosen has created an approach to scientific epistemology that might seem radical to some. However, it has characteristics that resemble ideas in other fields, in particular in the writings of George Lakoff, Leo Strauss, and George Soros. Historically, the atmosphere at the University of Chicago during Hutchins' presidency gave rise to Rashevsky's relational biology, which Rosen carried forward. Strauss was writing his political philosophy there at the same time. One idea is paramount in all this, and it is Lakoff who gives us the most insight into how the worldviews differ using this idea. The central difference has to do with causality, the fundamental concept that we use to build a worldview. Causal entailment has two distinct forms in Lakoff 's analysis: direct causality and complex causality. Rosen's writings on complexity create a picture of complex causality that is extremely useful in its detail, grounding in the ideas of Aristotle. Strauss asks for a return to the ancients to put philosophy back on track. Lakoff sees the weaknesses in Western philosophy in a similar way, and Rosen provides tools for dealing with the problem. This introduction to the relationships between the thinking of these authors is meant to stimulate further discourse on the role of complex causal entailment in all areas of thought, and how it brings them together in a holistic worldview. The worldview built on complex causality is clearly distinct from that built around simple, direct causality. One important difference is that the impoverished causal

  16. Finance and growth : Time series evidence on causality

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peia, Oana; Roszbach, Kasper

    2015-01-01

    This paper re-examines the empirical relationship between financial and economic development while (i) taking into account their dynamics and (ii) differentiating between stock market and banking sector development. We study the cointegration and causality between the real and the financial sector

  17. Academic Procrastination and Causal Perception of Tabor Senior ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Nekky Umera

    examine the extent of relationship of academic procrastination and causal attribution and Sex ... concerned bodies such as parents, teachers, counsellors, and directors to help students inside and outside the classroom. ... coping and general activity. ... is to lead one to effective management of him-or-herself and his/her.

  18. Children's Causal Inferences from Conflicting Testimony and Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bridgers, Sophie; Buchsbaum, Daphna; Seiver, Elizabeth; Griffiths, Thomas L.; Gopnik, Alison

    2016-01-01

    Preschoolers use both direct observation of statistical data and informant testimony to learn causal relationships. Can children integrate information from these sources, especially when source reliability is uncertain? We investigate how children handle a conflict between what they hear and what they see. In Experiment 1, 4-year-olds were…

  19. Intimate Partner Violence and Welfare Participation: A Longitudinal Causal Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Tyrone C.

    2013-01-01

    This longitudinal study examined the temporal-ordered causal relationship between intimate partner violence (IPV), five mental disorders (depression, generalized anxiety disorder, social phobia, panic attack, posttraumatic stress disorder [PTSD]), alcohol abuse/dependence, drug abuse/ dependence, treatment seeking (from physician, counselor, and…

  20. The causal effect of institutional quality on outsourcing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roelfsema, H.J.; Yi, Zhang

    This paper empirically investigates the relationship between institutional quality and outsourcing to developing economies. In contrast to cross-sectional studies on institutions, this paper uses panel data for 76 countries over 25 years (1980-2004). Employing panel data helps to show the causal

  1. Acute appendicitis following blunt abdominal trauma. Coincidence or causality?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergio Iván Latorre

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Acute appendicitis is a common disease in clinical practice; some well-defined causes include luminal obstruction by fecoliths, lymphoid hyperplasia, foreign bodies and intestinal parasites. Closed abdominal trauma has been associated as an etiological factor, although, their causal relationship is still unclear. This paper presents the case of a patient with appendicitis after a closed abdominal trauma.

  2. Climate Modeling and Causal Identification for Sea Ice Predictability

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hunke, Elizabeth Clare [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Urrego Blanco, Jorge Rolando [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Urban, Nathan Mark [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2018-02-12

    This project aims to better understand causes of ongoing changes in the Arctic climate system, particularly as decreasing sea ice trends have been observed in recent decades and are expected to continue in the future. As part of the Sea Ice Prediction Network, a multi-agency effort to improve sea ice prediction products on seasonal-to-interannual time scales, our team is studying sensitivity of sea ice to a collection of physical process and feedback mechanism in the coupled climate system. During 2017 we completed a set of climate model simulations using the fully coupled ACME-HiLAT model. The simulations consisted of experiments in which cloud, sea ice, and air-ocean turbulent exchange parameters previously identified as important for driving output uncertainty in climate models were perturbed to account for parameter uncertainty in simulated climate variables. We conducted a sensitivity study to these parameters, which built upon a previous study we made for standalone simulations (Urrego-Blanco et al., 2016, 2017). Using the results from the ensemble of coupled simulations, we are examining robust relationships between climate variables that emerge across the experiments. We are also using causal discovery techniques to identify interaction pathways among climate variables which can help identify physical mechanisms and provide guidance in predictability studies. This work further builds on and leverages the large ensemble of standalone sea ice simulations produced in our previous w14_seaice project.

  3. Energy consumption, carbon emissions and economic growth nexus in Bangladesh: Cointegration and dynamic causality analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jahangir Alam, Mohammad; Ara Begum, Ismat; Buysse, Jeroen; Van Huylenbroeck, Guido

    2012-01-01

    The paper investigates the possible existence of dynamic causality between energy consumption, electricity consumption, carbon emissions and economic growth in Bangladesh. First, we have tested cointegration relationships using the Johansen bi-variate cointegration model. This is complemented with an analysis of an auto-regressive distributed lag model to examine the results' robustness. Then, the Granger short-run, the long-run and strong causality are tested with a vector error correction modelling framework. The results indicate that uni-directional causality exists from energy consumption to economic growth both in the short and the long-run while a bi-directional long-run causality exists between electricity consumption and economic growth but no causal relationship exists in short-run. The strong causality results indicate bi-directional causality for both the cases. A uni-directional causality runs from energy consumption to CO 2 emission for the short-run but feedback causality exists in the long-run. CO 2 Granger causes economic growth both in the short and in the long-run. An important policy implication is that energy (electricity as well) can be considered as an important factor for the economic growth in Bangladesh. Moreover, as higher energy consumption also means higher pollution in the long-run, policy makers should stimulate alternative energy sources for meeting up the increasing energy demand. - Highlights: ► Dynamic causality among energy and electricity consumption, CO 2 and economic growth. ► Uni-directional causality exists from energy consumption to economic growth. ► Bi-directional causality exists between electricity consumption and economic growth. ► Feedback causality exists between CO 2 emission to energy consumption. ► CO 2 Granger causes economic growth both in the short and in the long-run.

  4. Causality as a Rigorous Notion and Quantitative Causality Analysis with Time Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, X. S.

    2017-12-01

    Given two time series, can one faithfully tell, in a rigorous and quantitative way, the cause and effect between them? Here we show that this important and challenging question (one of the major challenges in the science of big data), which is of interest in a wide variety of disciplines, has a positive answer. Particularly, for linear systems, the maximal likelihood estimator of the causality from a series X2 to another series X1, written T2→1, turns out to be concise in form: T2→1 = [C11 C12 C2,d1 — C112 C1,d1] / [C112 C22 — C11C122] where Cij (i,j=1,2) is the sample covariance between Xi and Xj, and Ci,dj the covariance between Xi and ΔXj/Δt, the difference approximation of dXj/dt using the Euler forward scheme. An immediate corollary is that causation implies correlation, but not vice versa, resolving the long-standing debate over causation versus correlation. The above formula has been validated with touchstone series purportedly generated with one-way causality that evades the classical approaches such as Granger causality test and transfer entropy analysis. It has also been applied successfully to the investigation of many real problems. Through a simple analysis with the stock series of IBM and GE, an unusually strong one-way causality is identified from the former to the latter in their early era, revealing to us an old story, which has almost faded into oblivion, about "Seven Dwarfs" competing with a "Giant" for the computer market. Another example presented here regards the cause-effect relation between the two climate modes, El Niño and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). In general, these modes are mutually causal, but the causality is asymmetric. To El Niño, the information flowing from IOD manifests itself as a propagation of uncertainty from the Indian Ocean. In the third example, an unambiguous one-way causality is found between CO2 and the global mean temperature anomaly. While it is confirmed that CO2 indeed drives the recent global warming

  5. A Spreadsheet-Based Visualized Mindtool for Improving Students' Learning Performance in Identifying Relationships between Numerical Variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lai, Chiu-Lin; Hwang, Gwo-Jen

    2015-01-01

    In this study, a spreadsheet-based visualized Mindtool was developed for improving students' learning performance when finding relationships between numerical variables by engaging them in reasoning and decision-making activities. To evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed approach, an experiment was conducted on the "phenomena of climate…

  6. Causal Reasoning with Mental Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-08-08

    The initial rubric is equivalent to an exclusive disjunction between the two causal assertions. It 488 yields the following two mental models: 489...are 575 important, whereas the functions of artifacts are important (Ahn, 1998). A genetic code is 576 accordingly more critical to being a goat than

  7. Identity, causality, and pronoun ambiguity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sagi, Eyal; Rips, Lance J

    2014-10-01

    This article looks at the way people determine the antecedent of a pronoun in sentence pairs, such as: Albert invited Ron to dinner. He spent hours cleaning the house. The experiment reported here is motivated by the idea that such judgments depend on reasoning about identity (e.g., the identity of the he who cleaned the house). Because the identity of an individual over time depends on the causal-historical path connecting the stages of the individual, the correct antecedent will also depend on causal connections. The experiment varied how likely it is that the event of the first sentence (e.g., the invitation) would cause the event of the second (the house cleaning) for each of the two individuals (the likelihood that if Albert invited Ron to dinner, this would cause Albert to clean the house, versus cause Ron to clean the house). Decisions about the antecedent followed causal likelihood. A mathematical model of causal identity accounted for most of the key aspects of the data from the individual sentence pairs. Copyright © 2014 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

  8. Charged singularities: the causality violation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    De Felice, F; Nobili, L [Padua Univ. (Italy). Ist. di Fisica; Calvani, M [Padua Univ. (Italy). Ist. di Astronomia

    1980-12-01

    A search is made for examples of particle trajectories which, approaching a naked singularity from infinity, make up for lost time before going back to infinity. In the Kerr-Newman metric a whole family of such trajectories is found showing that the causality violation is indeed a non-avoidable pathology.

  9. A versatile mass spectrometry-based method to both identify kinase client-relationships and characterize signaling network topology

    Science.gov (United States)

    While more than a thousand protein kinases (PK) have been identified in the Arabidopsis thaliana genome, relatively little progress has been made towards identifying their individual client proteins. Herein we describe use of a mass spectrometry-based in vitro phosphorylation strategy, termed Kinase...

  10. Partial Granger causality--eliminating exogenous inputs and latent variables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Shuixia; Seth, Anil K; Kendrick, Keith M; Zhou, Cong; Feng, Jianfeng

    2008-07-15

    Attempts to identify causal interactions in multivariable biological time series (e.g., gene data, protein data, physiological data) can be undermined by the confounding influence of environmental (exogenous) inputs. Compounding this problem, we are commonly only able to record a subset of all related variables in a system. These recorded variables are likely to be influenced by unrecorded (latent) variables. To address this problem, we introduce a novel variant of a widely used statistical measure of causality--Granger causality--that is inspired by the definition of partial correlation. Our 'partial Granger causality' measure is extensively tested with toy models, both linear and nonlinear, and is applied to experimental data: in vivo multielectrode array (MEA) local field potentials (LFPs) recorded from the inferotemporal cortex of sheep. Our results demonstrate that partial Granger causality can reveal the underlying interactions among elements in a network in the presence of exogenous inputs and latent variables in many cases where the existing conditional Granger causality fails.

  11. The argumentative impact of causal relations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Anne Ellerup

    1996-01-01

    such as causality, explanation and justification. In certain types of discourse, causal relations also imply an intentional element. This paper describes the way in which the semantic and pragmatic functions of causal markers can be accounted for in terms of linguistic and rhetorical theories of argumentation.......The semantic relations between and within utterances are marked by the use of connectors and adverbials. One type of semantic relations is causal relations expressed by causal markers such as because, therefore, so, for, etc. Some of these markers cover different types of causal relations...

  12. The causal effect of institutional quality on outsourcing

    OpenAIRE

    H.J. Roelfsema; Zhang Yi

    2009-01-01

    This paper empirically investigates the relationship between institutional quality and outsourcing to developing economies. In contrast to cross-sectional studies on institutions, this paper uses panel data for 76 countries over 25 years (1980-2004). Employing panel data helps to show the causal relationship by controlling for the fixed effects and dynamic factors. Using within and IV estimations, we find that there is a positive effect of institutional quality on outsourcing in the lower-mid...

  13. Causal Analysis of Databases Concerning Electromagnetism and Health

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kristian Alonso-Stenberg

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available In this article, we conducted a causal analysis of a system extracted from a database of current data in the telecommunications domain, namely the Eurobarometer 73.3 database arose from a survey of 26,602 citizens EU on the potential health effects that electromagnetic fields can produce. To determine the cause-effect relationships between variables, we represented these data by a directed graph that can be applied to a qualitative version of the theory of discrete chaos to highlight causal circuits and attractors, as these are basic elements of system behavior.

  14. Temporal sequence in observational studies to establish causality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luis Carlos Silva Ayçaguer, PhD

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available The article includes a brief summary on the scope of the notions of causality and risk and considers some operational difficulties that arise when dealing with problems associated with them. It underscores the vital importance of timing and its link with the most commonly used observational research designs that address causal relationships. The article describes in detail the need to record the order in which the relevant events occur and how to consider this in the analysis. A detailed example of errors that are usually incurred in and their effect is provided.

  15. Identifying Relationships between High-Risk Sexual Behaviors and Screening Positive for Chlamydia and Gonorrhea in School-Wide Screening Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salerno, Jennifer; Darling-Fisher, Cindy; Hawkins, Nicole M.; Fraker, Elizabeth

    2013-01-01

    Background: This article describes a school-wide sexually transmitted infection (STI) screening to identify adolescent high-risk sexual behaviors, STI history/incidence, and presence of chlamydia and gonorrhea, and examines relationships between high-risk behaviors and screening positive for chlamydia and gonorrhea in an alternative high school…

  16. PPARalpha siRNA-treated expression profiles uncover the causal sufficiency network for compound-induced liver hypertrophy.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xudong Dai

    2007-03-01

    Full Text Available Uncovering pathways underlying drug-induced toxicity is a fundamental objective in the field of toxicogenomics. Developing mechanism-based toxicity biomarkers requires the identification of such novel pathways and the order of their sufficiency in causing a phenotypic response. Genome-wide RNA interference (RNAi phenotypic screening has emerged as an effective tool in unveiling the genes essential for specific cellular functions and biological activities. However, eliciting the relative contribution of and sufficiency relationships among the genes identified remains challenging. In the rodent, the most widely used animal model in preclinical studies, it is unrealistic to exhaustively examine all potential interactions by RNAi screening. Application of existing computational approaches to infer regulatory networks with biological outcomes in the rodent is limited by the requirements for a large number of targeted permutations. Therefore, we developed a two-step relay method that requires only one targeted perturbation for genome-wide de novo pathway discovery. Using expression profiles in response to small interfering RNAs (siRNAs against the gene for peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor alpha (Ppara, our method unveiled the potential causal sufficiency order network for liver hypertrophy in the rodent. The validity of the inferred 16 causal transcripts or 15 known genes for PPARalpha-induced liver hypertrophy is supported by their ability to predict non-PPARalpha-induced liver hypertrophy with 84% sensitivity and 76% specificity. Simulation shows that the probability of achieving such predictive accuracy without the inferred causal relationship is exceedingly small (p < 0.005. Five of the most sufficient causal genes have been previously disrupted in mouse models; the resulting phenotypic changes in the liver support the inferred causal roles in liver hypertrophy. Our results demonstrate the feasibility of defining pathways mediating drug

  17. The problem of causality in corporate governance research: The case of governance indexes and firm valuation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jimmy A. Saravia

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available In recent years the problem of the determination of causality has become an increasingly important question in the field of corporate governance. This paper reviews contemporary literature on the topic of causality, specifically it examines the literature that investigates the causal relationship between corporate governance indexes and firm valuation and finds that the current approach is to attempt to determine causality empirically and that the problem remains unresolved. After explaining the reasons why it is not possible to attempt to determine causality using real world data without falling prey to a logical fallacy, this paper discusses a traditional approach used in science to deal with the problem. In particular, the paper argues that the appropriate approach for the problem is to build theories, with causality featuring as a part of those theories, and then to test those theories both for logical and empirical consistency.

  18. Are bruxism and the bite causally related?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lobbezoo, F; Ahlberg, J; Manfredini, D; Winocur, E

    2012-07-01

    In the dental profession, the belief that bruxism and dental (mal-)occlusion ('the bite') are causally related is widespread. The aim of this review was to critically assess the available literature on this topic. A PubMed search of the English-language literature, using the query 'Bruxism [Majr] AND (Dental Occlusion [Majr] OR Malocclusion [Majr])', yielded 93 articles, of which 46 papers were finally included in the present review*. Part of the included publications dealt with the possible associations between bruxism and aspects of occlusion, from which it was concluded that neither for occlusal interferences nor for factors related to the anatomy of the oro-facial skeleton, there is any evidence available that they are involved in the aetiology of bruxism. Instead, there is a growing awareness of other factors (viz. psychosocial and behavioural ones) being important in the aetiology of bruxism. Another part of the included papers assessed the possible mediating role of occlusion between bruxism and its purported consequences (e.g. tooth wear, loss of periodontal tissues, and temporomandibular pain and dysfunction). Even though most dentists agree that bruxism may have several adverse effects on the masticatory system, for none of these purported adverse effects, evidence for a mediating role of occlusion and articulation has been found to date. Hence, based on this review, it should be concluded that to date, there is no evidence whatsoever for a causal relationship between bruxism and the bite. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  19. [Antibibiotic resistance by nosocomial infections' causal agents].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salazar-Holguín, Héctor Daniel; Cisneros-Robledo, María Elena

    2016-01-01

    The antibibiotic resistance by nosocomial infections (NI) causal agents constitutes a seriously global problematic that involves the Mexican Institute of Social Security's Regional General Hospital 1 in Chihuahua, Mexico; although with special features that required to be specified and evaluated, in order to concrete an effective therapy. Observational, descriptive and prospective study; by means of active vigilance all along 2014 in order to detect the nosocomial infections, for epidemiologic study, culture and antibiogram to identify its causal agents and antibiotics resistance and sensitivity. Among 13527 hospital discharges, 1079 displayed NI (8 %), standed out: the related on vascular lines, of surgical site, pneumonia and urinal track; they added up two thirds of the total. We carried out culture and antibiogram about 300 of them (27.8 %); identifying 31 bacterian species, mainly seven of those (77.9 %): Escherichia coli, Staphylococcus aureus and epidermidis, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Acinetobacter baumannii, Klebsiella pneumoniae and Enterobacter cloacae; showing multiresistance to 34 tested antibiotics, except in seven with low or without resistance at all: vancomycin, teicoplanin, linezolid, quinupristin-dalfopristin, piperacilin-tazobactam, amikacin and carbapenems. When we contrasted those results with the recommendations in the clinical practice guides, it aroused several contradictions; so they must be taken with reserves and has to be tested in each hospital, by means of cultures and antibiograms in practically every case of nosocomial infection.

  20. Capturing connectivity and causality in complex industrial processes

    CERN Document Server

    Yang, Fan; Shah, Sirish L; Chen, Tongwen

    2014-01-01

    This brief reviews concepts of inter-relationship in modern industrial processes, biological and social systems. Specifically ideas of connectivity and causality within and between elements of a complex system are treated; these ideas are of great importance in analysing and influencing mechanisms, structural properties and their dynamic behaviour, especially for fault diagnosis and hazard analysis. Fault detection and isolation for industrial processes being concerned with root causes and fault propagation, the brief shows that, process connectivity and causality information can be captured in two ways: ·      from process knowledge: structural modeling based on first-principles structural models can be merged with adjacency/reachability matrices or topology models obtained from process flow-sheets described in standard formats; and ·      from process data: cross-correlation analysis, Granger causality and its extensions, frequency domain methods, information-theoretical methods, and Bayesian ne...

  1. Information–theoretic implications of quantum causal structures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chaves, Rafael; Majenz, Christian; Gross, David

    2015-01-01

    . However, no systematic method is known for treating such problems in a way that generalizes to quantum systems. Here, we describe a general algorithm for computing information–theoretic constraints on the correlations that can arise from a given causal structure, where we allow for quantum systems as well...... as classical random variables. The general technique is applied to two relevant cases: first, we show that the principle of information causality appears naturally in our framework and go on to generalize and strengthen it. Second, we derive bounds on the correlations that can occur in a networked architecture......It is a relatively new insight of classical statistics that empirical data can contain information about causation rather than mere correlation. First algorithms have been proposed that are capable of testing whether a presumed causal relationship is compatible with an observed distribution...

  2. Spectral dimension in causal set quantum gravity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eichhorn, Astrid; Mizera, Sebastian

    2014-01-01

    We evaluate the spectral dimension in causal set quantum gravity by simulating random walks on causal sets. In contrast to other approaches to quantum gravity, we find an increasing spectral dimension at small scales. This observation can be connected to the nonlocality of causal set theory that is deeply rooted in its fundamentally Lorentzian nature. Based on its large-scale behaviour, we conjecture that the spectral dimension can serve as a tool to distinguish causal sets that approximate manifolds from those that do not. As a new tool to probe quantum spacetime in different quantum gravity approaches, we introduce a novel dimensional estimator, the causal spectral dimension, based on the meeting probability of two random walkers, which respect the causal structure of the quantum spacetime. We discuss a causal-set example, where the spectral dimension and the causal spectral dimension differ, due to the existence of a preferred foliation. (paper)

  3. On causal nonrelativistic classical electrodynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goedecke, G.H.

    1984-01-01

    The differential-difference (DD) motion equations of the causal nonrelativistic classical electrodynamics developed by the author in 1975 are shown to possess only nonrunaway, causal solutions with no discontinuities in particle velocity or position. As an example, the DD equation solution for the problem of an electromagnetic shock incident on an initially stationary charged particle is contrasted with the standard Abraham-Lorentz equation solution. The general Cauchy problem for these DD motion equations is discussed. In general, in order to uniquely determine a solution, the initial data must be more detailed than the standard Cauchy data of initial position and velocity. Conditions are given under which the standard Cauchy data will determine the DD equation solutions to sufficient practical accuracy

  4. Quantum mechanics, relativity and causality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tati, Takao.

    1975-07-01

    In quantum mechanics, the state is prepared by a measurement on a space-like surface sigma. What is that determines the surface sigma on which the measurement prepares the state It is considered either a mechanism proper to the measuring process (apparatus) or a universal property of space-time. In the former case, problems arise, concerning causality or conservation of probability due to that the velocity of reduction of wave-packet is considered to exceed the light velocity. The theory of finite degree of freedom proposed previously belongs to the latter case. In this theory, the surface sigma is restricted to the hyper-plane perpendicular to a universal time-like vector governing causal relations. We propose an experiment to discriminate between the above-mentioned two cases and to test the existence of the universal time-like vector. (auth.)

  5. Identification of a mitochondrial target of thiazolidinedione insulin sensitizers (mTOT--relationship to newly identified mitochondrial pyruvate carrier proteins.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jerry R Colca

    Full Text Available Thiazolidinedione (TZD insulin sensitizers have the potential to effectively treat a number of human diseases, however the currently available agents have dose-limiting side effects that are mediated via activation of the transcription factor PPARγ. We have recently shown PPARγ-independent actions of TZD insulin sensitizers, but the molecular target of these molecules remained to be identified. Here we use a photo-catalyzable drug analog probe and mass spectrometry-based proteomics to identify a previously uncharacterized mitochondrial complex that specifically recognizes TZDs. These studies identify two well-conserved proteins previously known as brain protein 44 (BRP44 and BRP44 Like (BRP44L, which recently have been renamed Mpc2 and Mpc1 to signify their function as a mitochondrial pyruvate carrier complex. Knockdown of Mpc1 or Mpc2 in Drosophila melanogaster or pre-incubation with UK5099, an inhibitor of pyruvate transport, blocks the crosslinking of mitochondrial membranes by the TZD probe. Knockdown of these proteins in Drosophila also led to increased hemolymph glucose and blocked drug action. In isolated brown adipose tissue (BAT cells, MSDC-0602, a PPARγ-sparing TZD, altered the incorporation of (13C-labeled carbon from glucose into acetyl CoA. These results identify Mpc1 and Mpc2 as components of the mitochondrial target of TZDs (mTOT and suggest that understanding the modulation of this complex, which appears to regulate pyruvate entry into the mitochondria, may provide a viable target for insulin sensitizing pharmacology.

  6. Causal assessment of occupational pushing or pulling and low back pain: results of a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roffey, Darren M; Wai, Eugene K; Bishop, Paul; Kwon, Brian K; Dagenais, Simon

    2010-06-01

    Low back pain (LBP) is a prevalent and expensive musculoskeletal condition that predominantly occurs in working-age individuals of industrialized nations. Although numerous occupational physical activities have been implicated in its etiology, determining the causation of occupational LBP still remains a challenge. To conduct a systematic review evaluating the causal relationship between occupational pushing or pulling and LBP. Systematic review of the literature. Studies reporting an association between occupational pushing or pulling and LBP. Numerical association between exposure to pushing or pulling and the presence of LBP. A systematic review was performed to identify, evaluate, and summarize the literature related to establishing a causal relationship, according to Bradford-Hill criteria for causation for occupational pushing or pulling and LBP. A search was conducted using Medline, EMBASE, CINAHL, Cochrane Library, and OSH-ROM, gray literature, hand-searching occupational health journals, reference lists of included studies, and expert knowledge. Methodological quality was assessed using a modified Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. This search yielded 2,766 citations. Thirteen studies met the inclusion criteria. Eight were high-quality studies and five were low-quality studies. There was conflicting evidence with one high-quality study demonstrating a positive association between occupational pushing or pulling and LBP and five studies showing no relationship. One study reported a nonstatistically significant dose-response trend, four studies discussed temporality of which one indicated a positive finding, two studies discussed the biological plausibility of a causal link between occupational pushing or pulling and LBP, and no evidence was uncovered to assess the experiment criterion. A qualitative summary of existing studies was not able to find any high-quality studies that fully satisfied any of the Bradford-Hill causation criteria for occupational pushing or

  7. Causal Set Generator and Action Computer

    OpenAIRE

    Cunningham, William; Krioukov, Dmitri

    2017-01-01

    The causal set approach to quantum gravity has gained traction over the past three decades, but numerical experiments involving causal sets have been limited to relatively small scales. The software suite presented here provides a new framework for the generation and study of causal sets. Its efficiency surpasses previous implementations by several orders of magnitude. We highlight several important features of the code, including the compact data structures, the $O(N^2)$ causal set generatio...

  8. Causal Scale of Rotors in a Cardiac System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ashikaga, Hiroshi; Prieto-Castrillo, Francisco; Kawakatsu, Mari; Dehghani, Nima

    2018-04-01

    Rotors of spiral waves are thought to be one of the potential mechanisms that maintain atrial fibrillation (AF). However, disappointing clinical outcomes of rotor mapping and ablation to eliminate AF raise a serious doubt on rotors as a macro-scale mechanism that causes the micro-scale behavior of individual cardiomyocytes to maintain spiral waves. In this study, we aimed to elucidate the causal relationship between rotors and spiral waves in a numerical model of cardiac excitation. To accomplish the aim, we described the system in a series of spatiotemporal scales by generating a renormalization group, and evaluated the causal architecture of the system by quantifying causal emergence. Causal emergence is an information-theoretic metric that quantifies emergence or reduction between micro- and macro-scale behaviors of a system by evaluating effective information at each scale. We found that the cardiac system with rotors has a spatiotemporal scale at which effective information peaks. A positive correlation between the number of rotors and causal emergence was observed only up to the scale of peak causation. We conclude that rotors are not the universal mechanism to maintain spiral waves at all spatiotemporal scales. This finding may account for the conflicting benefit of rotor ablation in clinical studies.

  9. Modeling of causality with metamaterials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smolyaninov, Igor I

    2013-01-01

    Hyperbolic metamaterials may be used to model a 2 + 1-dimensional Minkowski space–time in which the role of time is played by one of the spatial coordinates. When a metamaterial is built and illuminated with a coherent extraordinary laser beam, the stationary pattern of light propagation inside the metamaterial may be treated as a collection of particle world lines, which represents a complete ‘history’ of this 2 + 1-dimensional space–time. While this model may be used to build interesting space–time analogs, such as metamaterial ‘black holes’ and a metamaterial ‘big bang’, it lacks causality: since light inside the metamaterial may propagate back and forth along the ‘timelike’ spatial coordinate, events in the ‘future’ may affect events in the ‘past’. Here we demonstrate that a more sophisticated metamaterial model may fix this deficiency via breaking the mirror and temporal (PT) symmetries of the original model and producing one-way propagation along the ‘timelike’ spatial coordinate. The resulting 2 + 1-dimensional Minkowski space–time appears to be causal. This scenario may be considered as a metamaterial model of the Wheeler–Feynman absorber theory of causality. (paper)

  10. Causal structure of analogue spacetimes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barcelo, Carlos; Liberati, Stefano; Sonego, Sebastiano; Visser, Matt

    2004-01-01

    The so-called 'analogue models of general relativity' provide a number of specific physical systems, well outside the traditional realm of general relativity, that nevertheless are well-described by the differential geometry of curved spacetime. Specifically, the propagation of perturbations in these condensed matter systems is described by 'effective metrics' that carry with them notions of 'causal structure' as determined by an exchange of quasi-particles. These quasi-particle-induced causal structures serve as specific examples of what can be done in the presence of a Lorentzian metric without having recourse to the Einstein equations of general relativity. (After all, the underlying analogue model is governed by its own specific physics, not necessarily by the Einstein equations.) In this paper we take a careful look at what can be said about the causal structure of analogue spacetimes, focusing on those containing quasi-particle horizons, both with a view to seeing what is different from standard general relativity, and what the similarities might be. For definiteness, and because the physics is particularly simple to understand, we will phrase much of the discussion in terms of acoustic disturbances in moving fluids, where the underlying physics is ordinary fluid mechanics, governed by the equations of traditional hydrodynamics, and the relevant quasi-particles are the phonons. It must however be emphasized that this choice of example is only for the sake of pedagogical simplicity and that our considerations apply generically to wide classes of analogue spacetimes

  11. ANALISIS KETERKAITAN KETERSEDIAAN INFRASTRUKTUR DENGAN PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DI INDONESIA: PENDEKATAN ANALISIS GRANGER CAUSALITY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lesta Karolina B Sembanyang

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The aims of this study are to analyze the causal relationship of public service provision (infrastructure, economic growth and tax inIndonesiaand to formulate the policy implications of causal link and infrastructure inIndonesia’s economic growth. The data used was time series data, from 1987 up to 2009. They were from many sources such as Government Expenditure (APBN, Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS and the International Financial Statistics (IFS. The method used is a causal analysis approach or the Granger causality. The findings of this study is that there is a direct relationship between GDP to infrastructure and the GDP to tax revenue. The conclusions of this study are Gross Domestic Product (GDP can lead the availability of infrastructure (for example road length in Indonesia,there is a causal connection between the economic growth and the tax revenue in Indonesia, andthe increased tax revenue will increase the availability of infrastructure, especially road.

  12. Inferring causal molecular networks: empirical assessment through a community-based effort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Steven M; Heiser, Laura M; Cokelaer, Thomas; Unger, Michael; Nesser, Nicole K; Carlin, Daniel E; Zhang, Yang; Sokolov, Artem; Paull, Evan O; Wong, Chris K; Graim, Kiley; Bivol, Adrian; Wang, Haizhou; Zhu, Fan; Afsari, Bahman; Danilova, Ludmila V; Favorov, Alexander V; Lee, Wai Shing; Taylor, Dane; Hu, Chenyue W; Long, Byron L; Noren, David P; Bisberg, Alexander J; Mills, Gordon B; Gray, Joe W; Kellen, Michael; Norman, Thea; Friend, Stephen; Qutub, Amina A; Fertig, Elana J; Guan, Yuanfang; Song, Mingzhou; Stuart, Joshua M; Spellman, Paul T; Koeppl, Heinz; Stolovitzky, Gustavo; Saez-Rodriguez, Julio; Mukherjee, Sach

    2016-04-01

    It remains unclear whether causal, rather than merely correlational, relationships in molecular networks can be inferred in complex biological settings. Here we describe the HPN-DREAM network inference challenge, which focused on learning causal influences in signaling networks. We used phosphoprotein data from cancer cell lines as well as in silico data from a nonlinear dynamical model. Using the phosphoprotein data, we scored more than 2,000 networks submitted by challenge participants. The networks spanned 32 biological contexts and were scored in terms of causal validity with respect to unseen interventional data. A number of approaches were effective, and incorporating known biology was generally advantageous. Additional sub-challenges considered time-course prediction and visualization. Our results suggest that learning causal relationships may be feasible in complex settings such as disease states. Furthermore, our scoring approach provides a practical way to empirically assess inferred molecular networks in a causal sense.

  13. Behavioural Pattern of Causality Parameter of Autoregressive ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In this paper, a causal form of Autoregressive Moving Average process, ARMA (p, q) of various orders and behaviour of the causality parameter of ARMA model is investigated. It is deduced that the behaviour of causality parameter ψi depends on positive and negative values of autoregressive parameter φ and moving ...

  14. Exploring Individual Differences in Preschoolers' Causal Stance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alvarez, Aubry; Booth, Amy E.

    2016-01-01

    Preschoolers, as a group, are highly attuned to causality, and this attunement is known to facilitate memory, learning, and problem solving. However, recent work reveals substantial individual variability in the strength of children's "causal stance," as demonstrated by their curiosity about and preference for new causal information. In…

  15. Representing Personal Determinants in Causal Structures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bandura, Albert

    1984-01-01

    Responds to Staddon's critique of the author's earlier article and addresses issues raised by Staddon's (1984) alternative models of causality. The author argues that it is not the formalizability of causal processes that is the issue but whether cognitive determinants of behavior are reducible to past stimulus inputs in causal structures.…

  16. Causal inference in economics and marketing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varian, Hal R

    2016-07-05

    This is an elementary introduction to causal inference in economics written for readers familiar with machine learning methods. The critical step in any causal analysis is estimating the counterfactual-a prediction of what would have happened in the absence of the treatment. The powerful techniques used in machine learning may be useful for developing better estimates of the counterfactual, potentially improving causal inference.

  17. Causal knowledge and reasoning in decision making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hagmayer, Y.; Witteman, C.L.M.

    2017-01-01

    Normative causal decision theories argue that people should use their causal knowledge in decision making. Based on these ideas, we argue that causal knowledge and reasoning may support and thereby potentially improve decision making based on expected outcomes, narratives, and even cues. We will

  18. A Causal and Mediation Analysis of the Comorbidity Between Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) and Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sokolova, Elena; Oerlemans, Anoek M; Rommelse, Nanda N; Groot, Perry; Hartman, Catharina A; Glennon, Jeffrey C; Claassen, Tom; Heskes, Tom; Buitelaar, Jan K

    2017-06-01

    Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) and Attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) are often comorbid. The purpose of this study is to explore the relationships between ASD and ADHD symptoms by applying causal modeling. We used a large phenotypic data set of 417 children with ASD and/or ADHD, 562 affected and unaffected siblings, and 414 controls, to infer a structural equation model using a causal discovery algorithm. Three distinct pathways between ASD and ADHD were identified: (1) from impulsivity to difficulties with understanding social information, (2) from hyperactivity to stereotypic, repetitive behavior, (3) a pairwise pathway between inattention, difficulties with understanding social information, and verbal IQ. These findings may inform future studies on understanding the pathophysiological mechanisms behind the overlap between ASD and ADHD.

  19. A theory of causal learning in children: causal maps and Bayes nets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gopnik, Alison; Glymour, Clark; Sobel, David M; Schulz, Laura E; Kushnir, Tamar; Danks, David

    2004-01-01

    The authors outline a cognitive and computational account of causal learning in children. They propose that children use specialized cognitive systems that allow them to recover an accurate "causal map" of the world: an abstract, coherent, learned representation of the causal relations among events. This kind of knowledge can be perspicuously understood in terms of the formalism of directed graphical causal models, or Bayes nets. Children's causal learning and inference may involve computations similar to those for learning causal Bayes nets and for predicting with them. Experimental results suggest that 2- to 4-year-old children construct new causal maps and that their learning is consistent with the Bayes net formalism.

  20. Norms and customs: causally important or causally impotent?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Todd

    2010-01-01

    In this article, I argue that norms and customs, despite frequently being described as being causes of behavior in the social sciences and ordinary conversation, cannot really cause behavior. Terms like "norms" and the like seem to refer to philosophically disreputable disjunctive properties. More problematically, even if they do not, or even if there can be disjunctive properties after all, I argue that norms and customs still cannot cause behavior. The social sciences would be better off without referring to properties like norms and customs as if they could be causal.

  1. Rupture, resilience, and risk: relationships between mental health and migration among gay-identified men in North America.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, Nathaniel M

    2014-05-01

    An established body of research in psychology, psychiatry and epidemiology links social stigma and stress with poor mental and sexual health outcomes among gay-identified men. Less work considers how these linkages are mediated by place and almost none considers the role of movement across places. This qualitative study, based on the migration narratives of 48 gay-identified men living in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, and Washington, D.C., U.S.A. gives more careful consideration to the ways in which mental and emotional health issues (e.g., anxiety, depression, substance use) in this population both precipitate migration and stem from migration. The narratives show that decisions to migrate often emerge from men׳s experiences of place-based minority stress and associated health outcomes. At the same time, moving to urban gay communities, when coupled with other life circumstances, can create or reinforce physical and emotional insecurities that lead to low self-esteem, substance use and sexual risk-taking. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Causality and cointegration analysis between macroeconomic variables and the Bovespa.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fabiano Mello da Silva

    Full Text Available The aim of this study is to analyze the causality relationship among a set of macroeconomic variables, represented by the exchange rate, interest rate, inflation (CPI, industrial production index as a proxy for gross domestic product in relation to the index of the São Paulo Stock Exchange (Bovespa. The period of analysis corresponded to the months from January 1995 to December 2010, making a total of 192 observations for each variable. Johansen tests, through the statistics of the trace and of the maximum eigenvalue, indicated the existence of at least one cointegration vector. In the analysis of Granger (1988 causality tests via error correction, it was found that a short-term causality existed between the CPI and the Bovespa. Regarding the Granger (1988 long-term causality, the results indicated a long-term behaviour among the macroeconomic variables with the BOVESPA. The results of the long-term normalized vector for the Bovespa variable showed that most signals of the cointegration equation parameters are in accordance with what is suggested by the economic theory. In other words, there was a positive behaviour of the GDP and a negative behaviour of the inflation and of the exchange rate (expected to be a positive relationship in relation to the Bovespa, with the exception of the Selic rate, which was not significant with that index. The variance of the Bovespa was explained by itself in over 90% at the twelfth month, followed by the country risk, with less than 5%.

  3. Causality and cointegration analysis between macroeconomic variables and the Bovespa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    da Silva, Fabiano Mello; Coronel, Daniel Arruda; Vieira, Kelmara Mendes

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this study is to analyze the causality relationship among a set of macroeconomic variables, represented by the exchange rate, interest rate, inflation (CPI), industrial production index as a proxy for gross domestic product in relation to the index of the São Paulo Stock Exchange (Bovespa). The period of analysis corresponded to the months from January 1995 to December 2010, making a total of 192 observations for each variable. Johansen tests, through the statistics of the trace and of the maximum eigenvalue, indicated the existence of at least one cointegration vector. In the analysis of Granger (1988) causality tests via error correction, it was found that a short-term causality existed between the CPI and the Bovespa. Regarding the Granger (1988) long-term causality, the results indicated a long-term behaviour among the macroeconomic variables with the BOVESPA. The results of the long-term normalized vector for the Bovespa variable showed that most signals of the cointegration equation parameters are in accordance with what is suggested by the economic theory. In other words, there was a positive behaviour of the GDP and a negative behaviour of the inflation and of the exchange rate (expected to be a positive relationship) in relation to the Bovespa, with the exception of the Selic rate, which was not significant with that index. The variance of the Bovespa was explained by itself in over 90% at the twelfth month, followed by the country risk, with less than 5%.

  4. Bayesian detection of causal rare variants under posterior consistency.

    KAUST Repository

    Liang, Faming

    2013-07-26

    Identification of causal rare variants that are associated with complex traits poses a central challenge on genome-wide association studies. However, most current research focuses only on testing the global association whether the rare variants in a given genomic region are collectively associated with the trait. Although some recent work, e.g., the Bayesian risk index method, have tried to address this problem, it is unclear whether the causal rare variants can be consistently identified by them in the small-n-large-P situation. We develop a new Bayesian method, the so-called Bayesian Rare Variant Detector (BRVD), to tackle this problem. The new method simultaneously addresses two issues: (i) (Global association test) Are there any of the variants associated with the disease, and (ii) (Causal variant detection) Which variants, if any, are driving the association. The BRVD ensures the causal rare variants to be consistently identified in the small-n-large-P situation by imposing some appropriate prior distributions on the model and model specific parameters. The numerical results indicate that the BRVD is more powerful for testing the global association than the existing methods, such as the combined multivariate and collapsing test, weighted sum statistic test, RARECOVER, sequence kernel association test, and Bayesian risk index, and also more powerful for identification of causal rare variants than the Bayesian risk index method. The BRVD has also been successfully applied to the Early-Onset Myocardial Infarction (EOMI) Exome Sequence Data. It identified a few causal rare variants that have been verified in the literature.

  5. Bayesian detection of causal rare variants under posterior consistency.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Faming Liang

    Full Text Available Identification of causal rare variants that are associated with complex traits poses a central challenge on genome-wide association studies. However, most current research focuses only on testing the global association whether the rare variants in a given genomic region are collectively associated with the trait. Although some recent work, e.g., the Bayesian risk index method, have tried to address this problem, it is unclear whether the causal rare variants can be consistently identified by them in the small-n-large-P situation. We develop a new Bayesian method, the so-called Bayesian Rare Variant Detector (BRVD, to tackle this problem. The new method simultaneously addresses two issues: (i (Global association test Are there any of the variants associated with the disease, and (ii (Causal variant detection Which variants, if any, are driving the association. The BRVD ensures the causal rare variants to be consistently identified in the small-n-large-P situation by imposing some appropriate prior distributions on the model and model specific parameters. The numerical results indicate that the BRVD is more powerful for testing the global association than the existing methods, such as the combined multivariate and collapsing test, weighted sum statistic test, RARECOVER, sequence kernel association test, and Bayesian risk index, and also more powerful for identification of causal rare variants than the Bayesian risk index method. The BRVD has also been successfully applied to the Early-Onset Myocardial Infarction (EOMI Exome Sequence Data. It identified a few causal rare variants that have been verified in the literature.

  6. Bayesian detection of causal rare variants under posterior consistency.

    KAUST Repository

    Liang, Faming; Xiong, Momiao

    2013-01-01

    Identification of causal rare variants that are associated with complex traits poses a central challenge on genome-wide association studies. However, most current research focuses only on testing the global association whether the rare variants in a given genomic region are collectively associated with the trait. Although some recent work, e.g., the Bayesian risk index method, have tried to address this problem, it is unclear whether the causal rare variants can be consistently identified by them in the small-n-large-P situation. We develop a new Bayesian method, the so-called Bayesian Rare Variant Detector (BRVD), to tackle this problem. The new method simultaneously addresses two issues: (i) (Global association test) Are there any of the variants associated with the disease, and (ii) (Causal variant detection) Which variants, if any, are driving the association. The BRVD ensures the causal rare variants to be consistently identified in the small-n-large-P situation by imposing some appropriate prior distributions on the model and model specific parameters. The numerical results indicate that the BRVD is more powerful for testing the global association than the existing methods, such as the combined multivariate and collapsing test, weighted sum statistic test, RARECOVER, sequence kernel association test, and Bayesian risk index, and also more powerful for identification of causal rare variants than the Bayesian risk index method. The BRVD has also been successfully applied to the Early-Onset Myocardial Infarction (EOMI) Exome Sequence Data. It identified a few causal rare variants that have been verified in the literature.

  7. Multivariate Granger causality between electricity generation, exports, prices and GDP in Malaysia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lean, Hooi Hooi; Smyth, Russell

    2010-01-01

    This paper employs annual data for Malaysia from 1970 to 2008 to examine the causal relationship between economic growth, electricity generation, exports and prices in a multivariate model. We find that there is unidirectional Granger causality running from economic growth to electricity generation. However, neither the export-led nor handmaiden theories of trade are supported and there is no causal relationship between prices and economic growth. The policy implication of this result is that electricity conservation policies, including efficiency improvement measures and demand management policies, which are designed to reduce the wastage of electricity and curtail generation can be implemented without having an adverse effect on Malaysia's economic growth. (author)

  8. The Causal Factors Associated with the Loving

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seyed Taghi Heydari

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Background: Families with disabled children need more psycho-social considerations. Motherhood care of the children with multiple disabilities is difficult. Due to its importance, the aim of this study was to investigate the causal factors affecting loving care of mothers of children with multiple disabilities. Methods: The study used a cross-sectional method in which 75 mothers of exceptional children with multiple disabilities (physical and mental in elementary schools in Shiraz, Iran. The data were collected through questionnaires which, besides demographical factors, evaluated the relationship between mothers’ loving care of children with multiple disabilities and four other variables including purpose in life, life satisfaction, religious attitude, and sense of coherence. Mann-Whitney U was used for comparison between mothers’ loving care and other variables. Results: Results revealed that demographic variables did not have a significant relationship with loving care. In the case of social variables, there was a significant relationship between mothers’ loving care and purpose in life (P<0.001, religious attitude (P<0.001, and life satisfaction (P=0.01. Conclusion: Motherhood care of disabled children is a unique phenomenon which is due to attachment of mother-child situation. Nevertheless, these mothers are vulnerable and marginalized people who need more attention and social supports provided by related governmental institutions and also NGOs actors.

  9. A theory of causal learning in children: Causal maps and Bayes nets

    OpenAIRE

    Gopnik, A; Glymour, C; Sobel, D M; Schulz, L E; Kushnir, T; Danks, D

    2004-01-01

    The authors outline a cognitive and computational account of causal learning in children. They propose that children use specialized cognitive systems that allow them to recover an accurate "causal map" of the world: an abstract, coherent, learned representation of the causal relations among events. This kind of knowledge can be perspicuously understood in terms of the formalism of directed graphical causal models, or Bayes nets. Children's causal learning and inference may involve computatio...

  10. A Bayesian Nonparametric Causal Model for Regression Discontinuity Designs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karabatsos, George; Walker, Stephen G.

    2013-01-01

    The regression discontinuity (RD) design (Thistlewaite & Campbell, 1960; Cook, 2008) provides a framework to identify and estimate causal effects from a non-randomized design. Each subject of a RD design is assigned to the treatment (versus assignment to a non-treatment) whenever her/his observed value of the assignment variable equals or…

  11. The Causal Pattern of Mobile Phone Ownership and Implications for ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper examined a number of predictors of mobile phone ownership amongst fish and vegetable sellers in Yola Metropolis, Nigeria. Using regression path analysis, it identified the causal pattern of mobile phone ownership for Male and Female in the study area. Although there were few significant differences between ...

  12. CAUSAL INFERENCE WITH A GRAPHICAL HIERARCHY OF INTERVENTIONS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shpitser, Ilya; Tchetgen, Eric Tchetgen

    2016-12-01

    Identifying causal parameters from observational data is fraught with subtleties due to the issues of selection bias and confounding. In addition, more complex questions of interest, such as effects of treatment on the treated and mediated effects may not always be identified even in data where treatment assignment is known and under investigator control, or may be identified under one causal model but not another. Increasingly complex effects of interest, coupled with a diversity of causal models in use resulted in a fragmented view of identification. This fragmentation makes it unnecessarily difficult to determine if a given parameter is identified (and in what model), and what assumptions must hold for this to be the case. This, in turn, complicates the development of estimation theory and sensitivity analysis procedures. In this paper, we give a unifying view of a large class of causal effects of interest, including novel effects not previously considered, in terms of a hierarchy of interventions, and show that identification theory for this large class reduces to an identification theory of random variables under interventions from this hierarchy. Moreover, we show that one type of intervention in the hierarchy is naturally associated with queries identified under the Finest Fully Randomized Causally Interpretable Structure Tree Graph (FFRCISTG) model of Robins (via the extended g-formula), and another is naturally associated with queries identified under the Non-Parametric Structural Equation Model with Independent Errors (NPSEM-IE) of Pearl, via a more general functional we call the edge g-formula. Our results motivate the study of estimation theory for the edge g-formula, since we show it arises both in mediation analysis, and in settings where treatment assignment has unobserved causes, such as models associated with Pearl's front-door criterion.

  13. Economic Growth, Foreign Direct Investment and CO2 Emissions in China: A Panel Granger Causality Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hongfeng Peng

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Using a sample of province-level panel data, this paper investigates the Granger causality associations among economic growth (GDP, foreign direct investment (FDI and CO2 emissions in China. By applying the bootstrap Granger panel causality approach (Kónya, 2006, we consider both cross-sectional dependence and homogeneity of different regions in China. The empirical results support that the causality direction not only works in a single direction either from GDP to FDI (in Yunnan or from FDI to GDP (in Beijing, Neimenggu, Jilin, Shanxi and Gansu, but it also works in both directions (in Henan. Moreover, we document that GDP is Granger-causing CO2 emissions in Neimenggu, Hubei, Guangxi and Gansu while there is bidirectional causality between these two variables in Shanxi. In the end, we identify the unidirectional causality from FDI to CO2 emissions in Beijing, Henan, Guizhou and Shanxi, and the bidirectional causality between FDI and CO2 emissions in Neimenggu.

  14. Causal mediation analysis with multiple causally non-ordered mediators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taguri, Masataka; Featherstone, John; Cheng, Jing

    2018-01-01

    In many health studies, researchers are interested in estimating the treatment effects on the outcome around and through an intermediate variable. Such causal mediation analyses aim to understand the mechanisms that explain the treatment effect. Although multiple mediators are often involved in real studies, most of the literature considered mediation analyses with one mediator at a time. In this article, we consider mediation analyses when there are causally non-ordered multiple mediators. Even if the mediators do not affect each other, the sum of two indirect effects through the two mediators considered separately may diverge from the joint natural indirect effect when there are additive interactions between the effects of the two mediators on the outcome. Therefore, we derive an equation for the joint natural indirect effect based on the individual mediation effects and their interactive effect, which helps us understand how the mediation effect works through the two mediators and relative contributions of the mediators and their interaction. We also discuss an extension for three mediators. The proposed method is illustrated using data from a randomized trial on the prevention of dental caries.

  15. Renewable energy consumption and economic growth in nine OECD countries: bounds test approach and causality analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hung-Pin, Lin

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to investigate the short-run and long-run causality between renewable energy (RE) consumption and economic growth (EG) in nine OECD countries from the period between 1982 and 2011. To examine the linkage, this paper uses the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach of cointegration test and vector error-correction models to test the causal relationship between variables. The co-integration and causal relationships are found in five countries-United States of America (USA), Japan, Germany, Italy, and United Kingdom (UK). The overall results indicate that (1) a short-run unidirectional causality runs from EG to RE in Italy and UK; (2) long-run unidirectional causalities run from RE to EG for Germany, Italy, and UK; (3) a long-run unidirectional causality runs from EG to RE in USA, and Japan; (4) both long-run and strong unidirectional causalities run from RE to EG for Germany and UK; and (5) Finally, both long-run and strong unidirectional causalities run from EG to RE in only USA. Further evidence reveals that policies for renewable energy conservation may have no impact on economic growth in France, Denmark, Portugal, and Spain.

  16. Cointegration and Causality Test Among Export, Import, and Foreign Exchange

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haryono Subiyakto

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The rupiah exchange rate, import, and export are the important indicators in economy, including the Indonesia economy. The debate regarding the relationship among the exchange rate, import, and export has been persisting for several decades. Some researchers found that there is a relationship among those three and others explained that there is no correlation among them. The aim of this research is to obtain the empirical evidence of the causal relationship among the export, import, and foreign exchange rate by using the monthly data from January 2010 to April 2014. The export and import data are the export and import values in US dollar. The exchange rate data is the median exchange rates of the Indonesian Bank. The Johansen Cointegration Test and the Granger Causality Test are used to analyze the data. The research result shows that export and import have no causal relationship at five percent. Next, the foreign exchange rate influences the export and import at 10 percent level. The result indicates that the foreign exchange rate has small effects on the export and import. Based on the results, the government should control the balance of trade and should not make any policy that is based on the exchange rate values. Finally, it can be said that the exchange rate policy is not effective in increasing the exports and reducing the imports.

  17. Informational and Causal Architecture of Discrete-Time Renewal Processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sarah E. Marzen

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Renewal processes are broadly used to model stochastic behavior consisting of isolated events separated by periods of quiescence, whose durations are specified by a given probability law. Here, we identify the minimal sufficient statistic for their prediction (the set of causal states, calculate the historical memory capacity required to store those states (statistical complexity, delineate what information is predictable (excess entropy, and decompose the entropy of a single measurement into that shared with the past, future, or both. The causal state equivalence relation defines a new subclass of renewal processes with a finite number of causal states despite having an unbounded interevent count distribution. We use the resulting formulae to analyze the output of the parametrized Simple Nonunifilar Source, generated by a simple two-state hidden Markov model, but with an infinite-state ϵ-machine presentation. All in all, the results lay the groundwork for analyzing more complex processes with infinite statistical complexity and infinite excess entropy.

  18. Relationship between thin cap fibroatheroma identified by virtual histology and angioscopic yellow plaque in quantitative analysis with colorimetry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamamoto, Masanori; Takano, Masamichi; Okamatsu, Kentaro; Murakami, Daisuke; Inami, Shigenobu; Xie, Yong; Seimiya, Koji; Ohba, Takayoshi; Seino, Yoshihiko; Mizuno, Kyoichi

    2009-03-01

    Thin cap fibroatheroma (TCFA) is considered to be a vulnerable plaque. Virtual Histology-intravascular ultrasound (VH-IVUS) can precisely identify TCFA in vivo. Intense yellow plaque on angioscopy determined by quantitative colorimetry with L a b color space corresponds with histological TCFA; in particular, a plaque of color b value >23 indicates an atheroma with a fibrous cap thickness colorimetry was investigated. Fifty-seven culprit plaques in 57 patients were evaluated by VH-IVUS and angioscopy. VH-TCFA was defined as a plaque with a necrotic core >10% of plaque area without overlying fibrous tissue, and angioscopic TCFA was a plaque with b value >23. The frequency of angioscopic TCFA was higher in the VH-TCFA group than in the VH-non-TCFA group (74% vs 23%, P=0.0002). Moreover, yellow color intensity (b value) significantly correlated with plaque classification on VH-IVUS. When TCFA detected with angioscopy was used as the gold standard, the sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy for TCFA with VH-IVUS was 68%, 81%, and 75%, respectively. VH-TCFA strongly correlated with angioscopic TCFA determined by a quantitative analysis with colorimetry.

  19. The Use of Causal Mapping in the Design of Sustainability Performance Measurement Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Parisi, Cristiana

    2013-01-01

    organisations’ strategic performance measurement systems (SPMSs). This study’s main contribution is the triangulation of multiple qualitative methods to enhance the reliability of causal maps. This innovative approach supports the use of causal mapping to extract managerial tacit knowledge in order to identify...

  20. Evaluating a satellite-based seasonal evapotranspiration product and identifying its relationship with other satellite-derived products and crop yield: A case study for Ethiopia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tadesse, Tsegaye; Senay, Gabriel B.; Berhan, Getachew; Regassa, Teshome; Beyene, Shimelis

    2015-08-01

    Satellite-derived evapotranspiration anomalies and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) products from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data are currently used for African agricultural drought monitoring and food security status assessment. In this study, a process to evaluate satellite-derived evapotranspiration (ETa) products with a geospatial statistical exploratory technique that uses NDVI, satellite-derived rainfall estimate (RFE), and crop yield data has been developed. The main goal of this study was to evaluate the ETa using the NDVI and RFE, and identify a relationship between the ETa and Ethiopia's cereal crop (i.e., teff, sorghum, corn/maize, barley, and wheat) yields during the main rainy season. Since crop production is one of the main factors affecting food security, the evaluation of remote sensing-based seasonal ETa was done to identify the appropriateness of this tool as a proxy for monitoring vegetation condition in drought vulnerable and food insecure areas to support decision makers. The results of this study showed that the comparison between seasonal ETa and RFE produced strong correlation (R2 > 0.99) for all 41 crop growing zones in Ethiopia. The results of the spatial regression analyses of seasonal ETa and NDVI using Ordinary Least Squares and Geographically Weighted Regression showed relatively weak yearly spatial relationships (R2 products have a good predictive potential for these 31 identified zones in Ethiopia. Decision makers may potentially use ETa products for monitoring cereal crop yields and early warning of food insecurity during drought years for these identified zones.

  1. How (not) to interpret a non-causal association in sports injury science.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hjerrild, Mette; Videbaek, Solvej; Theisen, Daniel; Malisoux, Laurent; Oestergaard Nielsen, Rasmus

    2018-05-16

    To discuss the interpretability of non-causal associations to sports injury development exemplified via the relationship between navicular drop (ND) and running-related injury (RRI) in novice runners using neutral shoes. 1-year prospective cohort study. Denmark. 926 novice runners, representing 1852 feet, were included. The outcome was "a musculoskeletal complaint of the lower extremity or back caused by running, which restricted the amount of running for at least a week". Fewer feet with small ND than those feet with a reference ND sustained injuries at 50 (risk difference (RD) = -4.1% [95%CI = -7.9%;-0.4%]) and 100 km (RD = -5.3% [95%CI = -9.9%;-0.7%]). Similarly, fewer feet with a large ND sustained injuries than the feet with a reference drop at 250 (RD = -7.6% [95%CI = -14.9%;-0.3%]) and 500 km (RD = -9.8% [95%CI = -19.1%;-0.4%]). Non-causal associations can help to identify sub-groups of athletes at an increased or decreased risk of sports injury. Based on the current results, those with a small or large navicular drop sustain fewer injuries than those with a reference drop. Importantly, navicular drop does not cause RRIs, but influences the relationship between training load and RRI. This illustrates that non-causal associations are unsuitable to respond to the question: Why do sports injury develop? Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. A study in cosmology and causal thermodynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oliveira, H.P. de.

    1986-01-01

    The especial relativity of thermodynamic theories for reversible and irreversible processes in continuous medium is studied. The formalism referring to equilibrium and non-equilibrium configurations, and theories which includes the presence of gravitational fields are discussed. The nebular model in contraction with dissipative processes identified by heat flux and volumetric viscosity is thermodymically analysed. This model is presented by a plane conformal metric. The temperature, pressure, entropy and entropy production within thermodynamic formalism which adopts the hypothesis of local equilibrium, is calculated. The same analysis is carried out considering a causal thermodynamics, which establishes a local entropy of non-equilibrium. Possible homogeneous and isotropic cosmological models, considering the new phenomenological equation for volumetric viscosity deriving from cause thermodynamics are investigated. The found out models have plane spatial section (K=0) and some ones do not have singularities. The energy conditions are verified and the entropy production for physically reasobable models are calculated. (M.C.K.) [pt

  3. Investigating Causality Between Agricultural and Economic Growth in Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Falsafian

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Although rate of economic growth is not the only way to measure economic development, it is relatively more important than the other indices. Agriculture sector plays the main role on economic growth and sustainable development. In addition, it has significant impact on most social, political and economic issues by producing strategic food products for ever-increasing population. Therefore, the present study investigated causal relationship between agricultural and economic growth in Iran. To this end, the Granjer’s causality test was used after employing the Augmented Dicky-Fuller test to see if the variables under consideration are stationary. The result showed that there is a long learn feedback relationship between these variables and agricultural developments.

  4. Organizational justice and leadership : expanding the causal framework

    OpenAIRE

    Sajons, Gwendolin Beatriz

    2014-01-01

    This thesis examines the relationships among managerial justice and employee attitudes, emotions and behaviors to re-conceptualize the traditional causal frameworks of the justice literature. In the first chapter, I propose that distributive fairness perceptions do not unidirectionally affect performance, but that the two are linked reciprocally. Data from two laboratory experiments support this proposition. Chapter 2 builds on this idea to argue that managers use employee performance as a he...

  5. CAUSAL PEER EFFECTS IN FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Njegovanović

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The research paper connects three key elements from the study (conducted using neural database of experimental asset market that have tested the fundamental mechanisms that generate peer effect, the neural database was measured using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI; Cary Frydman, 2015- University of Southern California-Marshall School of Business relating to: experimental control in the laboratory of random peer assignment,; neural activity in testing new prediction explaining peer effect and neural activity in the conduct of trade. The methodology used in the research of peer effect relies on the theory of predicting error, the signal which measures changes in anticipation of the net present value which generates new information. Cognitive neuroscience shows that the prediction error is measured in a certain part of the brain known as the ventral striatum. Measuring the potential value gives insights to economists on which factors affecting the subjective utility. Testing is constructed with 48 patients who were given $ 100 of experimental money and they were given the opportunity to invest in two separate assets in over two hundred experiments. The experiment showed that subjects converted their final portfolio from experimental currency to real dollars using the exchange rate of 5: 1. In addition to profits from the experiment, subjects were paid a fixed "show-up" fee of $ 20. There are two difficulties in identifying causal peer effect in economic behavior (Minsk, 1993. Correlated behavior between two representatives may potentially be the engine by common shocks of the peer group or endogenous election in the peer group. In addition to the prediction that deals with causal peer effect, there have been further developed predictions that generate different mechanisms of peer effects using neural database. Focus on neural prediction is the neural activity that generates the moment when peers allocation investment is published

  6. Preschoolers’ Development of Theory of Mind: The Contribution of Understanding Psychological Causality in Stories

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wakako Sanefuji

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available This study investigated the relationship between children’s abilities to understand causal sequences and another’s false belief. In Experiment 1, we tested 3-, 4-, 5-, and 6-year-old children (n = 28, 28, 27, and 27, respectively using false belief and picture sequencing tasks involving mechanical, behavioral, and psychological causality. Understanding causal sequences in mechanical, behavioral, and psychological stories was related to understanding other’s false beliefs. In Experiment 2, children who failed the initial false belief task (n = 50 were reassessed 5 months later. High scorers in the sequencing of the psychological stories in Experiment 1 were more likely to pass the standard false belief task than were the low scorers. Conversely, understanding causal sequences in the mechanical and behavioral stories in Experiment 1 did not predict passing the false belief task in Experiment 2. Thus, children may understand psychological causality before they are able to use it to understand false beliefs.

  7. The discourse of causal explanations in school science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slater, Tammy Jayne Anne

    Researchers and educators working from a systemic functional linguistic perspective have provided a body of work on science discourse which offers an excellent starting point for examining the linguistic aspects of the development of causal discourse in school science, discourse which Derewianka (1995) claimed is critical to success in secondary school. No work has yet described the development of causal language by identifying the linguistic features present in oral discourse or by comparing the causal discourse of native and non-native (ESL) speakers of English. The current research responds to this gap by examining the oral discourse collected from ESL and non-ESL students at the primary and high school grades. Specifically, it asks the following questions: (1) How do the teachers and students in these four contexts develop causal explanations and their relevant taxonomies through classroom interactions? (2) What are the causal discourse features being used by the students in these four contexts to construct oral causal explanations? The findings of the social practice analysis showed that the teachers in the four contexts differed in their approaches to teaching, with the primary school mainstream teacher focusing largely on the hands-on practice , the primary school ESL teacher moving from practice to theory, the high school mainstream teacher moving from theory to practice, and the high school ESL teacher relying primarily on theory. The findings from the quantitative, small corpus approach suggest that the developmental path of cause which has been identified in the writing of experts shows up not only in written texts but also in the oral texts which learners construct. Moreover, this move appears when the discourse of high school ESL and non-ESL students is compared, suggesting a developmental progression in the acquisition of these features by these students. The findings also reveal that the knowledge constructed, as shown by the concept maps created

  8. Causality analysis in business performance measurement system using system dynamics methodology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yusof, Zainuridah; Yusoff, Wan Fadzilah Wan; Maarof, Faridah

    2014-07-01

    One of the main components of the Balanced Scorecard (BSC) that differentiates it from any other performance measurement system (PMS) is the Strategy Map with its unidirectional causality feature. Despite its apparent popularity, criticisms on the causality have been rigorously discussed by earlier researchers. In seeking empirical evidence of causality, propositions based on the service profit chain theory were developed and tested using the econometrics analysis, Granger causality test on the 45 data points. However, the insufficiency of well-established causality models was found as only 40% of the causal linkages were supported by the data. Expert knowledge was suggested to be used in the situations of insufficiency of historical data. The Delphi method was selected and conducted in obtaining the consensus of the causality existence among the 15 selected expert persons by utilizing 3 rounds of questionnaires. Study revealed that only 20% of the propositions were not supported. The existences of bidirectional causality which demonstrate significant dynamic environmental complexity through interaction among measures were obtained from both methods. With that, a computer modeling and simulation using System Dynamics (SD) methodology was develop as an experimental platform to identify how policies impacting the business performance in such environments. The reproduction, sensitivity and extreme condition tests were conducted onto developed SD model to ensure their capability in mimic the reality, robustness and validity for causality analysis platform. This study applied a theoretical service management model within the BSC domain to a practical situation using SD methodology where very limited work has been done.

  9. Causality in Psychiatry: A Hybrid Symptom Network Construct Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gerald eYoung

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Causality or etiology in psychiatry is marked by standard biomedical, reductionistic models (symptoms reflect the construct involved that inform approaches to nosology, or classification, such as in the DSM-5 (Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fifth Edition; American Psychiatric Association, 2013. However, network approaches to symptom interaction (i.e., symptoms are formative of the construct; e.g., McNally, Robinaugh, Wu, Wang, Deserno, & Borsboom, 2014, for PTSD (posttraumatic stress disorder are being developed that speak to bottom-up processes in mental disorder, in contrast to the typical top-down psychological construct approach. The present article presents a hybrid top-down, bottom-up model of the relationship between symptoms and mental disorder, viewing symptom expression and their causal complex as a reciprocally dynamic system with multiple levels, from lower-order symptoms in interaction to higher-order constructs affecting them. The hybrid model hinges on good understanding of systems theory in which it is embedded, so that the article reviews in depth nonlinear dynamical systems theory (NLDST. The article applies the concept of emergent circular causality (Young, 2011 to symptom development, as well. Conclusions consider that symptoms vary over several dimensions, including: subjectivity; objectivity; conscious motivation effort; and unconscious influences, and the degree to which individual (e.g., meaning and universal (e.g., causal processes are involved. The opposition between science and skepticism is a complex one that the article addresses in final comments.

  10. Causal gene identification using combinatorial V-structure search.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Ruichu; Zhang, Zhenjie; Hao, Zhifeng

    2013-07-01

    With the advances of biomedical techniques in the last decade, the costs of human genomic sequencing and genomic activity monitoring are coming down rapidly. To support the huge genome-based business in the near future, researchers are eager to find killer applications based on human genome information. Causal gene identification is one of the most promising applications, which may help the potential patients to estimate the risk of certain genetic diseases and locate the target gene for further genetic therapy. Unfortunately, existing pattern recognition techniques, such as Bayesian networks, cannot be directly applied to find the accurate causal relationship between genes and diseases. This is mainly due to the insufficient number of samples and the extremely high dimensionality of the gene space. In this paper, we present the first practical solution to causal gene identification, utilizing a new combinatorial formulation over V-Structures commonly used in conventional Bayesian networks, by exploring the combinations of significant V-Structures. We prove the NP-hardness of the combinatorial search problem under a general settings on the significance measure on the V-Structures, and present a greedy algorithm to find sub-optimal results. Extensive experiments show that our proposal is both scalable and effective, particularly with interesting findings on the causal genes over real human genome data. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. A Hierarchical Causal Taxonomy of Psychopathology across the Life Span

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lahey, Benjamin B.; Krueger, Robert F.; Rathouz, Paul J.; Waldman, Irwin D.; Zald, David H.

    2016-01-01

    We propose a taxonomy of psychopathology based on patterns of shared causal influences identified in a review of multivariate behavior genetic studies that distinguish genetic and environmental influences that are either common to multiple dimensions of psychopathology or unique to each dimension. At the phenotypic level, first-order dimensions are defined by correlations among symptoms; correlations among first-order dimensions similarly define higher-order domains (e.g., internalizing or externalizing psychopathology). We hypothesize that the robust phenotypic correlations among first-order dimensions reflect a hierarchy of increasingly specific etiologic influences. Some nonspecific etiologic factors increase risk for all first-order dimensions of psychopathology to varying degrees through a general factor of psychopathology. Other nonspecific etiologic factors increase risk only for all first-order dimensions within a more specific higher-order domain. Furthermore, each first-order dimension has its own unique causal influences. Genetic and environmental influences common to family members tend to be nonspecific, whereas environmental influences unique to each individual are more dimension-specific. We posit that these causal influences on psychopathology are moderated by sex and developmental processes. This causal taxonomy also provides a novel framework for understanding the heterogeneity of each first-order dimension: Different persons exhibiting similar symptoms may be influenced by different combinations of etiologic influences from each of the three levels of the etiologic hierarchy. Furthermore, we relate the proposed causal taxonomy to transdimensional psychobiological processes, which also impact the heterogeneity of each psychopathology dimension. This causal taxonomy implies the need for changes in strategies for studying the etiology, psychobiology, prevention, and treatment of psychopathology. PMID:28004947

  12. Occupational safety management: the role of causal attribution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gyekye, Seth Ayim

    2010-12-01

    The paper addresses the causal attribution theory, an old and well-established theme in social psychology which denotes the everyday, commonsense explanations that people use to explain events and the world around them. The attribution paradigm is considered one of the most appropriate analytical tools for exploratory and descriptive studies in social psychology and organizational literature. It affords the possibility of describing accident processes as objectively as possible and with as much detail as possible. Causal explanations are vital to the formal analysis of workplace hazards and accidents, as they determine how organizations act to prevent accident recurrence. Accordingly, they are regarded as fundamental and prerequisite elements for safety management policies. The paper focuses primarily on the role of causal attributions in occupational and industrial accident analyses and implementation of safety interventions. It thus serves as a review of the contribution of attribution theory to occupational and industrial accidents. It comprises six sections. The first section presents an introduction to the classic attribution theories, and the second an account of the various ways in which the attribution paradigm has been applied in organizational settings. The third and fourth sections review the literature on causal attributions and demographic and organizational variables respectively. The sources of attributional biases in social psychology and how they manifest and are identified in the causal explanations for industrial and occupational accidents are treated in the fifth section. Finally, conclusion and recommendations are presented. The recommendations are particularly important for the reduction of workplace accidents and associated costs. The paper touches on the need for unbiased causal analyses, belief in the preventability of accidents, and the imperative role of management in occupational safety management.

  13. Space-time as a causal set

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bombelli, L.; Lee, J.; Meyer, D.; Sorkin, R.D.

    1987-01-01

    We propose that space-time at the smallest scales is in reality a causal set: a locally finite set of elements endowed with a partial order corresponding to the macroscopic relation that defines past and future. We explore how a Lorentzian manifold can approximate a causal set, noting in particular that the thereby defined effective dimensionality of a given causal set can vary with length scale. Finally, we speculate briefly on the quantum dynamics of causal sets, indicating why an appropriate choice of action can reproduce general relativity in the classical limit

  14. Productivity Analysis of Public and Private Airports: A Causal Investigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vasigh, Bijan; Gorjidooz, Javad

    2007-01-01

    Around the world, airports are being viewed as enterprises, rather than public services, which are expected to be managed efficiently and provide passengers with courteous customer services. Governments are, increasingly, turning to the private sectors for their efficiency in managing the operation, financing, and development, as well as providing security for airports. Operational and financial performance evaluation has become increasingly important to airport operators due to recent trends in airport privatization. Assessing performance allows the airport operators to plan for human resources and capital investment as efficiently as possible. Productivity measurements may be used as comparisons and guidelines in strategic planning, in the internal analysis of operational efficiency and effectiveness, and in assessing the competitive position of an airport in transportation industry. The primary purpose of this paper is to investigate the operational and financial efficiencies of 22 major airports in the United States and Europe. These airports are divided into three groups based on private ownership (7 British Airport Authority airports), public ownership (8 major United States airports), and a mix of private and public ownership (7 major European Union airports. The detail ownership structures of these airports are presented in Appendix A. Total factor productivity (TFP) model was utilized to measure airport performance in terms of financial and operational efficiencies and to develop a benchmarking tool to identify the areas of strength and weakness. A regression model was then employed to measure the relationship between TFP and ownership structure. Finally a Granger causality test was performed to determine whether ownership structure is a Granger cause of TFP. The results of the analysis presented in this paper demonstrate that there is not a significant relationship between airport TFP and ownership structure. Airport productivity and efficiency is

  15. Electromagnetic pulses, localized and causal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lekner, John

    2018-01-01

    We show that pulse solutions of the wave equation can be expressed as time Fourier superpositions of scalar monochromatic beam wave functions (solutions of the Helmholtz equation). This formulation is shown to be equivalent to Bateman's integral expression for solutions of the wave equation, for axially symmetric solutions. A closed-form one-parameter solution of the wave equation, containing no backward-propagating parts, is constructed from a beam which is the tight-focus limit of two families of beams. Application is made to transverse electric and transverse magnetic pulses, with evaluation of the energy, momentum and angular momentum for a pulse based on the general localized and causal form. Such pulses can be represented as superpositions of photons. Explicit total energy and total momentum values are given for the one-parameter closed-form pulse.

  16. Quantum retrodiction and causality principle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shirokov, M.I.

    1994-01-01

    Quantum mechanics is factually a predictive science. But quantum retrodiction may also be needed, e.g., for the experimental verification of the validity of the Schroedinger equation for the wave function in the past if the present state is given. It is shown that in the retrodictive analog of the prediction the measurement must be replaced by another physical process called the retromeasurement. In this process, the reduction of a state vector into eigenvectors of a measured observable must proceed in the opposite direction of time as compared to the usual reduction. Examples of such processes are unknown. Moreover, they are shown to be forbidden by the causality principle stating that the later event cannot influence the earlier one. So quantum retrodiction seems to be unrealizable. It is demonstrated that the approach to the retrodiction given by S.Watanabe and F.Belinfante must be considered as an unsatisfactory ersatz of retrodicting. 20 refs., 3 figs

  17. Causal ubiquity in quantum physics. A superluminal and local-causal physical ontology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Neelamkavil, Raphael

    2014-01-01

    A fixed highest criterial velocity (of light) in STR (special theory of relativity) is a convention for a layer of physical inquiry. QM (Quantum Mechanics) avoids action-at-a-distance using this concept, but accepts non-causality and action-at-a-distance in EPR (Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen-Paradox) entanglement experiments. Even in such allegedly [non-causal] processes, something exists processually in extension-motion, between the causal and the [non-causal]. If STR theoretically allows real-valued superluminal communication between EPR entangled particles, quantum processes become fully causal. That is, the QM world is sub-luminally, luminally and superluminally local-causal throughout, and the Law of Causality is ubiquitous in the micro-world. Thus, ''probabilistic causality'' is a merely epistemic term.

  18. Causal ubiquity in quantum physics. A superluminal and local-causal physical ontology

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Neelamkavil, Raphael

    2014-07-01

    A fixed highest criterial velocity (of light) in STR (special theory of relativity) is a convention for a layer of physical inquiry. QM (Quantum Mechanics) avoids action-at-a-distance using this concept, but accepts non-causality and action-at-a-distance in EPR (Einstein-Podolsky-Rosen-Paradox) entanglement experiments. Even in such allegedly [non-causal] processes, something exists processually in extension-motion, between the causal and the [non-causal]. If STR theoretically allows real-valued superluminal communication between EPR entangled particles, quantum processes become fully causal. That is, the QM world is sub-luminally, luminally and superluminally local-causal throughout, and the Law of Causality is ubiquitous in the micro-world. Thus, ''probabilistic causality'' is a merely epistemic term.

  19. The balanced survivor average causal effect.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greene, Tom; Joffe, Marshall; Hu, Bo; Li, Liang; Boucher, Ken

    2013-05-07

    Statistical analysis of longitudinal outcomes is often complicated by the absence of observable values in patients who die prior to their scheduled measurement. In such cases, the longitudinal data are said to be "truncated by death" to emphasize that the longitudinal measurements are not simply missing, but are undefined after death. Recently, the truncation by death problem has been investigated using the framework of principal stratification to define the target estimand as the survivor average causal effect (SACE), which in the context of a two-group randomized clinical trial is the mean difference in the longitudinal outcome between the treatment and control groups for the principal stratum of always-survivors. The SACE is not identified without untestable assumptions. These assumptions have often been formulated in terms of a monotonicity constraint requiring that the treatment does not reduce survival in any patient, in conjunction with assumed values for mean differences in the longitudinal outcome between certain principal strata. In this paper, we introduce an alternative estimand, the balanced-SACE, which is defined as the average causal effect on the longitudinal outcome in a particular subset of the always-survivors that is balanced with respect to the potential survival times under the treatment and control. We propose a simple estimator of the balanced-SACE that compares the longitudinal outcomes between equivalent fractions of the longest surviving patients between the treatment and control groups and does not require a monotonicity assumption. We provide expressions for the large sample bias of the estimator, along with sensitivity analyses and strategies to minimize this bias. We consider statistical inference under a bootstrap resampling procedure.

  20. Electricity consumption and economic growth nexus in Portugal using cointegration and causality approaches

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shahbaz, Muhammad; Tang, Chor Foon; Shahbaz Shabbir, Muhammad

    2011-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to re-examine the relationship between electricity consumption, economic growth, and employment in Portugal using the cointegration and Granger causality frameworks. This study covers the sample period from 1971 to 2009. We examine the presence of a long-run equilibrium relationship using the bounds testing approach to cointegration within the Unrestricted Error-Correction Model (UECM). Moreover, we examine the direction of causality between electricity consumption, economic growth, and employment in Portugal using the Granger causality test within the Vector Error-Correction Model (VECM). As a summary of the empirical findings, we find that electricity consumption, economic growth, and employment in Portugal are cointegrated and there is bi-directional Granger causality between the three variables in the long-run. With the exception of the Granger causality between electricity consumption and economic growth, the rest of the variables are also bi-directional Granger causality in the short-run. Furthermore, we find that there is unidirectional Granger causality running from economic growth to electricity consumption, but no evidence of reversal causality. - Highlights: → We re-examine the relationship between electricity consumption, economic growth, and employment in Portugal. → The electricity consumption and economic growth is causing each other in the long-run. → In the short-run, economic growth Granger-cause electricity consumption, but no evidence of reversal causality. → Energy conservation policy will deteriorate the process of economic growth in the long-run. → Portugal should increase investment on R and D to design new energy savings technology.

  1. A Theory of Causal Learning in Children: Causal Maps and Bayes Nets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gopnik, Alison; Glymour, Clark; Sobel, David M.; Schulz, Laura E.; Kushnir, Tamar; Danks, David

    2004-01-01

    The authors outline a cognitive and computational account of causal learning in children. They propose that children use specialized cognitive systems that allow them to recover an accurate "causal map" of the world: an abstract, coherent, learned representation of the causal relations among events. This kind of knowledge can be perspicuously…

  2. Relationship of drinking motives with alcohol consumption and alcohol-related problems identified in a representative community-based study from Ningxia, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Hui G; Phillips, Michael R; Zhang, Yuhong; Wang, Zhizhong

    2017-11-01

    Drinking motives have been linked to alcohol consumption and drinking-related problems in western countries, but evidence about this relationship is largely lacking for Asian countries. We aim to assess the relationship between drinking motives and drinking-related outcomes in China, where alcohol use disorders are an increasingly important contributor to the overall burden of illness. Validated Chinese versions of the Drinking Motives Questionnaire-Revised (DMQ-R) and the Alcohol Use Disorder Identification Test (AUDIT) were used to assess drinking motives and drinking-related outcomes among 612 current drinkers identified from a cross-sectional survey of a representative sample of 2425 adults living in Ningxia Province in 2013. Structural equation modeling was used to estimate the relationships linking specific drinking motives ('enhancement', 'conformity', 'social' and 'coping') to drinking-related outcomes ('level of alcohol consumption', 'alcohol dependence' and 'adverse consequences'). The enhancement motive is significantly associated with the level of alcohol consumption (β=0.52, 95% CI=0.27, 0.78). The conformity motive is associated with higher levels of alcohol dependence (β=0.74, 95% CI=0.50, 0.98) and adverse consequences of drinking (β=0.43, 95% CI=0.04, 0.81). The social motive and drinking to cope motive are not significantly associated with any of the three drinking outcomes. The relationships between drinking motives and drinking-related outcomes in China are quite different from those reported in western countries. This study highlights the need to consider local context when adapting prevention or intervention strategies developed in western countries to address the problem of the harmful use of alcohol in China. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. The Causality between Government Expenditure and Economic Growth in Nigeria: A Toda-Yamamoto Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Adebayo Ajayi

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The relationship between government expenditure and economic growth has been an issue of debate over the years. This study investigates the causality between government expenditure and economic growth in Nigeria between 1985 and 2014. Following the Toda-Yamamoto non-Granger causality testing approach, it finds that government expenditure and economic growth have no causal effect on each other. This offers evidence to invalidate Wagner’s law and the Keynesian proposition in Nigeria. This study recommends that government should strengthen its efforts to curtail corruption as well as introduce stricter checks and controls to reduce or eliminate the profligacy of public funds.

  4. The Causal-Compositional Concept of Information—Part II: Information through Fairness: How Does the Relationship between Information, Fairness and Language Evolve, Stimulate the Development of (New Computing Devices and Help to Move towards the Information Society

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gerhard Luhn

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available We are moving towards the information society, and we need to overcome the discouraging perspective, which is caused by the false belief that our thoughts (and thereby also our acting represent a somehow externally existing world. Indeed, it is already a step forward to proclaim that there exists a somehow common world for all people. But if those internal forms of representation are primarily bound to the subject itself, then, consequently, anybody can argue for his or her view of the world as being the “right” one. Well, what is the exit strategy out of this dilemma? It is information; information as understood in its actual and potential dimension, in its identity of structure and meaning. Such an approach requires a deeper elaborated conceptual approach. The goal of this study is to show that such a concept is glued by the strong relationship between seemingly unrelated disciplines: physics, semantics (semiotics/cognition and computer science, and even poetry. But the terminus of information is nowadays discussed and elaborated in all those disciplines. Hence, there is no shortcut, no way around. The aim of this study is not even to show that those strong relationships exist. We will see within the same horizon that, based on such a concept, new kinds of computing systems are becoming possible. Nowadays energy consumption is becoming a major issue regarding computing systems. We will work towards an approach, which enables new devices consuming a minimum amount of energy and maximizing the performance at the same time. And within the same horizon it becomes possible to release the saved energy towards a new ethical spirit—towards the information society.

  5. Campbell's and Rubin's Perspectives on Causal Inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    West, Stephen G.; Thoemmes, Felix

    2010-01-01

    Donald Campbell's approach to causal inference (D. T. Campbell, 1957; W. R. Shadish, T. D. Cook, & D. T. Campbell, 2002) is widely used in psychology and education, whereas Donald Rubin's causal model (P. W. Holland, 1986; D. B. Rubin, 1974, 2005) is widely used in economics, statistics, medicine, and public health. Campbell's approach focuses on…

  6. mediation: R Package for Causal Mediation Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dustin Tingley

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we describe the R package mediation for conducting causal mediation analysis in applied empirical research. In many scientific disciplines, the goal of researchers is not only estimating causal effects of a treatment but also understanding the process in which the treatment causally affects the outcome. Causal mediation analysis is frequently used to assess potential causal mechanisms. The mediation package implements a comprehensive suite of statistical tools for conducting such an analysis. The package is organized into two distinct approaches. Using the model-based approach, researchers can estimate causal mediation effects and conduct sensitivity analysis under the standard research design. Furthermore, the design-based approach provides several analysis tools that are applicable under different experimental designs. This approach requires weaker assumptions than the model-based approach. We also implement a statistical method for dealing with multiple (causally dependent mediators, which are often encountered in practice. Finally, the package also offers a methodology for assessing causal mediation in the presence of treatment noncompliance, a common problem in randomized trials.

  7. Causal Mediation Analysis: Warning! Assumptions Ahead

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keele, Luke

    2015-01-01

    In policy evaluations, interest may focus on why a particular treatment works. One tool for understanding why treatments work is causal mediation analysis. In this essay, I focus on the assumptions needed to estimate mediation effects. I show that there is no "gold standard" method for the identification of causal mediation effects. In…

  8. A General Approach to Causal Mediation Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Imai, Kosuke; Keele, Luke; Tingley, Dustin

    2010-01-01

    Traditionally in the social sciences, causal mediation analysis has been formulated, understood, and implemented within the framework of linear structural equation models. We argue and demonstrate that this is problematic for 3 reasons: the lack of a general definition of causal mediation effects independent of a particular statistical model, the…

  9. A Causal Model of Faculty Research Productivity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bean, John P.

    A causal model of faculty research productivity was developed through a survey of the literature. Models of organizational behavior, organizational effectiveness, and motivation were synthesized into a causal model of productivity. Two general types of variables were assumed to affect individual research productivity: institutional variables and…

  10. Counterfactual overdetermination vs. the causal exclusion problem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sparber, Georg

    2005-01-01

    This paper aims to show that a counterfactual approach to causation is not sufficient to provide a solution to the causal exclusion problem in the form of systematic overdetermination. Taking into account the truthmakers of causal counterfactuals provides a strong argument in favour of the identity of causes in situations of translevel, causation.

  11. Causal Indicators Can Help to Interpret Factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bentler, Peter M.

    2016-01-01

    The latent factor in a causal indicator model is no more than the latent factor of the factor part of the model. However, if the causal indicator variables are well-understood and help to improve the prediction of individuals' factor scores, they can help to interpret the meaning of the latent factor. Aguirre-Urreta, Rönkkö, and Marakas (2016)…

  12. Quasi-Experimental Designs for Causal Inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Yongnam; Steiner, Peter

    2016-01-01

    When randomized experiments are infeasible, quasi-experimental designs can be exploited to evaluate causal treatment effects. The strongest quasi-experimental designs for causal inference are regression discontinuity designs, instrumental variable designs, matching and propensity score designs, and comparative interrupted time series designs. This…

  13. Determining Directional Dependency in Causal Associations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pornprasertmanit, Sunthud; Little, Todd D.

    2012-01-01

    Directional dependency is a method to determine the likely causal direction of effect between two variables. This article aims to critique and improve upon the use of directional dependency as a technique to infer causal associations. We comment on several issues raised by von Eye and DeShon (2012), including: encouraging the use of the signs of…

  14. Causal models in epidemiology: past inheritance and genetic future

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kriebel David

    2006-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The eruption of genetic research presents a tremendous opportunity to epidemiologists to improve our ability to identify causes of ill health. Epidemiologists have enthusiastically embraced the new tools of genomics and proteomics to investigate gene-environment interactions. We argue that neither the full import nor limitations of such studies can be appreciated without clarifying underlying theoretical models of interaction, etiologic fraction, and the fundamental concept of causality. We therefore explore different models of causality in the epidemiology of disease arising out of genes, environments, and the interplay between environments and genes. We begin from Rothman's "pie" model of necessary and sufficient causes, and then discuss newer approaches, which provide additional insights into multifactorial causal processes. These include directed acyclic graphs and structural equation models. Caution is urged in the application of two essential and closely related concepts found in many studies: interaction (effect modification and the etiologic or attributable fraction. We review these concepts and present four important limitations. 1. Interaction is a fundamental characteristic of any causal process involving a series of probabilistic steps, and not a second-order phenomenon identified after first accounting for "main effects". 2. Standard methods of assessing interaction do not adequately consider the life course, and the temporal dynamics through which an individual's sufficient cause is completed. Different individuals may be at different stages of development along the path to disease, but this is not usually measurable. Thus, for example, acquired susceptibility in children can be an important source of variation. 3. A distinction must be made between individual-based and population-level models. Most epidemiologic discussions of causality fail to make this distinction. 4. At the population level, there is additional

  15. Renewable Energy Consumption and Agriculture: Evidence for Cointegration and Granger causality for Tunisian Economy

    OpenAIRE

    Ben Jebli, Mehdi; Ben Youssef, Slim

    2015-01-01

    This paper uses the vector error correction model (VECM) and Granger causality tests to investigate short and long-run relationships between per capita carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, real gross domestic product (GDP), renewable and non-renewable energy consumption, trade openness ratio and agricultural value added (AVA) in Tunisia spanning the period 1980-2011. The Johansen-Juselius test shows that all our considered variables are cointegrated. Short-run Granger causality tests reveal the ex...

  16. Electricity consumption, employment and real income in Australia evidence from multivariate Granger causality tests

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Narayan, P.K.; Smyth, Russell

    2005-01-01

    This paper examines the relationship between electricity consumption, employment and real income in Australia within a cointegration and causality framework. We find that electricity consumption, employment and real income are cointegrated and that in the long-run employment and real income Granger cause electricity consumption, while in the short run there is weak unidirectional Granger causality running from income to electricity consumption and from income to employment

  17. On the causal links between FDI and growth in developing countries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Henrik; Rand, John

    2006-01-01

    We analyse the Granger causal relationships between foreign direct investment (FDI) and GDP in a sample of 31 developing countries covering 31 years. Using estimators for heterogeneous panel data we find bi-directional causality between the FDI-to-GDP ratio and the level of GDP. FDI has a lasting...... of the hypotheses that FDI has an impact on GDP via knowledge transfers and adoption of new technology...

  18. Causality between government revenue and expenditure in Malaysia: A seasonal cointegration test

    OpenAIRE

    Goh, Soo Khoon; Dawood, Mithani

    1999-01-01

    The objective of this article is to empirically incorporate the effect of seasonality in examining the causal relationship between quarterly government revenue and governemnt expenditure in Malaysia for the period 1970.1- 1994.4. The seasonal integration and cointegration tests developed by Hylleberg, Engle, Granger and Yoo (1990) and extended by Engle, Granger, Hylleberg and lee (1993) are applied prior to determination of causality. Evidence of seasonal cointegration of biaanual frequency ...

  19. Heterogeneous Causal Effects and Sample Selection Bias

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Breen, Richard; Choi, Seongsoo; Holm, Anders

    2015-01-01

    The role of education in the process of socioeconomic attainment is a topic of long standing interest to sociologists and economists. Recently there has been growing interest not only in estimating the average causal effect of education on outcomes such as earnings, but also in estimating how...... causal effects might vary over individuals or groups. In this paper we point out one of the under-appreciated hazards of seeking to estimate heterogeneous causal effects: conventional selection bias (that is, selection on baseline differences) can easily be mistaken for heterogeneity of causal effects....... This might lead us to find heterogeneous effects when the true effect is homogenous, or to wrongly estimate not only the magnitude but also the sign of heterogeneous effects. We apply a test for the robustness of heterogeneous causal effects in the face of varying degrees and patterns of selection bias...

  20. Repair of Partly Misspecified Causal Diagrams.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oates, Chris J; Kasza, Jessica; Simpson, Julie A; Forbes, Andrew B

    2017-07-01

    Errors in causal diagrams elicited from experts can lead to the omission of important confounding variables from adjustment sets and render causal inferences invalid. In this report, a novel method is presented that repairs a misspecified causal diagram through the addition of edges. These edges are determined using a data-driven approach designed to provide improved statistical efficiency relative to de novo structure learning methods. Our main assumption is that the expert is "directionally informed," meaning that "false" edges provided by the expert would not create cycles if added to the "true" causal diagram. The overall procedure is cast as a preprocessing technique that is agnostic to subsequent causal inferences. Results based on simulated data and data derived from an observational cohort illustrate the potential for data-assisted elicitation in epidemiologic applications. See video abstract at, http://links.lww.com/EDE/B208.