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Sample records for hydrological runoff modelling

  1. Predicting hydrological signatures in ungauged catchments using spatial interpolation, index model, and rainfall-runoff modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yongqiang; Vaze, Jai; Chiew, Francis H. S.; Teng, Jin; Li, Ming

    2014-09-01

    Understanding a catchment's behaviours in terms of its underlying hydrological signatures is a fundamental task in surface water hydrology. It can help in water resource management, catchment classification, and prediction of runoff time series. This study investigated three approaches for predicting six hydrological signatures in southeastern Australia. These approaches were (1) spatial interpolation with three weighting schemes, (2) index model that estimates hydrological signatures using catchment characteristics, and (3) classical rainfall-runoff modelling. The six hydrological signatures fell into two categories: (1) long-term aggregated signatures - annual runoff coefficient, mean of log-transformed daily runoff, and zero flow ratio, and (2) signatures obtained from daily flow metrics - concavity index, seasonality ratio of runoff, and standard deviation of log-transformed daily flow. A total of 228 unregulated catchments were selected, with half the catchments randomly selected as gauged (or donors) for model building and the rest considered as ungauged (or receivers) to evaluate performance of the three approaches. The results showed that for two long-term aggregated signatures - the log-transformed daily runoff and runoff coefficient, the index model and rainfall-runoff modelling performed similarly, and were better than the spatial interpolation methods. For the zero flow ratio, the index model was best and the rainfall-runoff modelling performed worst. The other three signatures, derived from daily flow metrics and considered to be salient flow characteristics, were best predicted by the spatial interpolation methods of inverse distance weighting (IDW) and kriging. Comparison of flow duration curves predicted by the three approaches showed that the IDW method was best. The results found here provide guidelines for choosing the most appropriate approach for predicting hydrological behaviours at large scales.

  2. Description of the National Hydrologic Model for use with the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Regan, R. Steven; Markstrom, Steven L.; Hay, Lauren E.; Viger, Roland J.; Norton, Parker A.; Driscoll, Jessica M.; LaFontaine, Jacob H.

    2018-01-08

    This report documents several components of the U.S. Geological Survey National Hydrologic Model of the conterminous United States for use with the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS). It provides descriptions of the (1) National Hydrologic Model, (2) Geospatial Fabric for National Hydrologic Modeling, (3) PRMS hydrologic simulation code, (4) parameters and estimation methods used to compute spatially and temporally distributed default values as required by PRMS, (5) National Hydrologic Model Parameter Database, and (6) model extraction tool named Bandit. The National Hydrologic Model Parameter Database contains values for all PRMS parameters used in the National Hydrologic Model. The methods and national datasets used to estimate all the PRMS parameters are described. Some parameter values are derived from characteristics of topography, land cover, soils, geology, and hydrography using traditional Geographic Information System methods. Other parameters are set to long-established default values and computation of initial values. Additionally, methods (statistical, sensitivity, calibration, and algebraic) were developed to compute parameter values on the basis of a variety of nationally-consistent datasets. Values in the National Hydrologic Model Parameter Database can periodically be updated on the basis of new parameter estimation methods and as additional national datasets become available. A companion ScienceBase resource provides a set of static parameter values as well as images of spatially-distributed parameters associated with PRMS states and fluxes for each Hydrologic Response Unit across the conterminuous United States.

  3. Hydrological daily rainfall-runoff simulation with BTOPMC model and comparison with Xin'anjiang model

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    Hong-jun Bao

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available A grid-based distributed hydrological model, the Block-wise use of TOPMODEL (BTOPMC, which was developed from the original TOPMODEL, was used for hydrological daily rainfall-runoff simulation. In the BTOPMC model, the runoff is explicitly calculated on a cell-by-cell basis, and the Muskingum-Cunge flow concentration method is used. In order to test the model's applicability, the BTOPMC model and the Xin'anjiang model were applied to the simulation of a humid watershed and a semi-humid to semi-arid watershed in China. The model parameters were optimized with the Shuffle Complex Evolution (SCE-UA method. Results show that both models can effectively simulate the daily hydrograph in humid watersheds, but that the BTOPMC model performs poorly in semi-humid to semi-arid watersheds. The excess-infiltration mechanism should be incorporated into the BTOPMC model to broaden the model's applicability.

  4. Runoff Prediction Using an Aggregation Hydrology Model on Seulimum River Sub Watershed, Aceh Province, Indonesia

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    Susi Chairani

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available The objective of the present study was to predict the runoff in Seulimeum River sub watershed by utilizing an aggregation hydrology model. The method in this research consisted of field observation, collecting data and map, testing model, and analyzing data. Some parameters were used as the inputs on the model, such as: maximum storage, actual groundwater storage, soil moisture, and the constant of soil moisture k(t. The aggregation hydrology model was tested using 3 (three statistical parameters, such as; determination coefficient (R2, biased percentage (PBIAS, and Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient (ENS. The result showed that the minimum runoff occured in 1998 was 70.22 mm and the maximum runoff occurred in 1987 was 759.12 mm. The model testing showed that the aggregation hydrology model had a good performance in predicting the discharge of Krueng Seulimemum Sub Watershed; the R2, P biased, and ENS resulted 0.92, -5.21%, and 0.90, respectively

  5. Calibration of Rainfall-Runoff Model by Referring to Hydrological Separation of Runoff Components using Chemical and Isotopic Characteristics of Discharge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chikamori, H.

    2008-12-01

    Calibration of Rainfall-Runoff Model by Referring to Hydrological Separation of Runoff Components using Chemical and Isotopic Characteristics of Discharge Hidetaka Chikamori Graduate School of Environmental Science, Okayama University, JAPAN A rainfall-runoff model is generally calibrated by minimizing error in calculated runoff using records of hydrological components, that is, observed rainfall, discharge and observed or estimated evapotranpiration. However, calibration using only hydrological components sometimes produces a model with strange structure that does not reflect physical properties of an objective basin. It is probably due to error in referred hydrological records. In this study, the author calibrated a rainfall runoff model using not only hydrological record but also chemical and isotopic data of discharge so as to obtain a reasonably structured model from multiple viewpoints. Besides, the model structure was improved in order to simulate isotopic characteristics well. It is well known that ratio of surface flow in total flow can be estimated by change in concentration of cation or anion. Relative concentration of 18O, δ18O is well used for separating runoff of retained water in soil as "old water" from total runoff. A Long-and-Short Term Tank Model (LST2 Model) was applied to three Hinoki Cypress catchments in Mie experimental basin located in the middle of Japan. One of these catchments is of well-maintained planted forest, and two are of poor-maintained planted. A model was calibrated by Differential Evolution for each catchment using hydrological data, concentration of K+ and δ18O. In these catchments, Gomi et al (2008) showed that concentration of K+ well expresses ratio of surface runoff to total runoff, and that δ18O subsurface runoff to total runoff. The results show that an original version of LST2 Model cannot simulated delayed subsurface flow ratio estimated by δ18O, although it well simulates surface flow ratio estimated by

  6. Retrospective Analysis of Recent Flood Events With Persistent High Surface Runoff From Hydrological Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joshi, S.; Hakeem, K. Abdul; Raju, P. V.; Rao, V. V.; Yadav, A.; Diwakar, P. G.; Dadhwal, V. K.

    2014-11-01

    Floods are one of the most common and widespread disasters in India, with an estimated 40Mha of land prone to this natural disaster (National Flood Commission, India). Significant loss of property, infrastructure, livestock, public utilities resulting in large economic losses due to floods are recurrent every year in many parts of India. Flood forecasting and early warning is widely recognized and adopted as non-structural measure to lower the damages caused by the flood events. Estimating the rainfall excess that results into excessive river flow is preliminary effort in riverine flood estimation. Flood forecasting models are in general, are event based and do not fully account for successive and persistent excessive surface runoff conditions. Successive high rainfall events result in saturated soil moisture conditions, favourable for high surface runoff conditions. The present study is to explore the usefulness of hydrological model derived surface runoff, running on continuous times-step, to relate to the occurrence of flood inundation due to persistent and successive high surface runoff conditions. Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC), a macro-scale hydrological model, was used to simulate daily runoff at systematic grid level incorporating daily meteorological data and land cover data. VIC is a physically based, semi-distributed macroscale hydrological model that represents surface and subsurface hydrologic process on spatially distributed grid cell. It explicitly represents sub-grid heterogeneity in land cover classes, taking their phenological changes into account. In this study, the model was setup for entire India using geo-spatial data available from multiple sources (NRSC, NBSS&LUP, NOAA, and IMD) and was calibrated with river discharge data from CWC at selected river basins. Using the grid-wise surface runoff estimates from the model, an algorithm was developed through a set of thresholds of successive high runoff values in order to identify grids

  7. How far can we go in hydrological modelling without any knowledge of runoff formation processes?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ayzel, Georgy

    2016-04-01

    Hydrological modelling is a challenging scientific issue for the last 50 years and tend to be it further because of the highest level of runoff formation processes complexity at the different spatio-temporal scales. Enormous number of modelling-related papers have submitted to the top-ranked journals every year, but in this publication speed race authors have pay increasing attention to the models and data they use by itself rather than underlying watershed processes. Great community effort of the free and open-source models sharing with high availability of hydrometeorological data sources led to conceptual shifting paradigm of hydrological science to the technical-oriented direction. In the third-world countries this shifting is more clear by the reason of field studies absence and obligatory requirement of practical significance of the research supported by the government funds. As a result we get a state of hydrological modelling discipline closer to the aim of high Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) achievement rather than watershed processes understanding. Both lumped physically-based land-surface model SWAP (Soil Water - Atmosphere - Plants) and SCE-UA (Shuffled Complex Evolution method developed at The University of Arizona) technique for robust model parameters search were used for the runoff modelling of 323 MOPEX watersheds. No one special data analysis and expert knowledge-based decisions were not performed. Median value of NSE is 0.652 and 90% of watersheds have efficiency bigger than 0.5. Thus without any information of particular features of each watershed satisfactory modelling results were obtained. To prove our conclusions we build cutting-edge conceptual rainfall-runoff model based on decision trees and adaptive boosting machine learning algorithms for the one small watershed in USA. No one special data analysis or feature engineering was not performed too. Obtained results demonstrate great model prediction power both for learning and testing

  8. Regional drought assessment using a distributed hydrological model coupled with Standardized Runoff Index

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    H. Shen

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Drought assessment is essential for coping with frequent droughts nowadays. Owing to the large spatio-temporal variations in hydrometeorology in most regions in China, it is very necessary to use a physically-based hydrological model to produce rational spatial and temporal distributions of hydro-meteorological variables for drought assessment. In this study, the large-scale distributed hydrological model Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC was coupled with a modified standardized runoff index (SRI for drought assessment in the Weihe River basin, northwest China. The result indicates that the coupled model is capable of reasonably reproducing the spatial distribution of drought occurrence. It reflected the spatial heterogeneity of regional drought and improved the physical mechanism of SRI. This model also has potential for drought forecasting, early warning and mitigation, given that accurate meteorological forcing data are available.

  9. Hydrologic Variations and Stochastic Modeling of Runoff in Zoige Wetland in the Eastern Tibetan Plateau

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    Guanghua Qin

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Hydrological time series data (1988–2008 of the Hei River, the main water source to Zoige wetland in the Eastern Tibetan Plateau, were investigated. Results showed that the runoff distribution of Hei River varies with the relative change in amplitude (Cm=15.9 and the absolute change in amplitude (ΔQ=37.1 m3/s during the year. There was a significant decreasing trend since 1988 with annual runoff of 20.0 m3/s (1988–1994, 19.0 m3/s (1995–2000, and 15.2 m3/s (2001–2008. There were double peaks in runoff during the water year: the highest peak in the period of 1988–2000 occurred in July while in the period of 2001–2008 it occurred in October. Shifting peak flow means less water quantity in wetland during growing season. Nearest neighbor bootstrapping regressive method was used to predict daily runoff of the Hei River. Model results show that it was fitted with 94.23% of R2 for daily time series, which can provide a basis for the development and utilization of regional water resources.

  10. Runoff of small rocky headwater catchments: Field observations and hydrological modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregoretti, C.; Degetto, M.; Bernard, M.; Crucil, G.; Pimazzoni, A.; De Vido, G.; Berti, M.; Simoni, A.; Lanzoni, S.

    2016-10-01

    In dolomitic headwater catchments, intense rainstorms of short duration produce runoff discharges that often trigger debris flows on the scree slopes at the base of rock cliffs. In order to measure these discharges, we placed a measuring facility at the outlet (elevation 1770 m a.s.l.) of a small, rocky headwater catchment (area ˜0.032 km2, average slope ˜320%) located in the Venetian Dolomites (North Eastern Italian Alps). The facility consists of an approximately rectangular basin, ending with a sharp-crested weir. Six runoff events were recorded in the period 2011-2014, providing a unique opportunity for characterizing the hydrological response of the catchment. The measured hydrographs display impulsive shapes, with an abrupt raise up to the peak, followed by a rapidly decreasing tail, until a nearly constant plateau is eventually reached. This behavior can be simulated by means of a distributed hydrological model if the excess rainfall is determined accurately. We show that using the Soil Conservation Service Curve-Number (SCS-CN) method and assuming a constant routing velocity invariably results in an underestimated peak flow and a delayed peak time. A satisfactory prediction of the impulsive hydrograph shape, including peak value and timing, is obtained only by combining the SCS-CN procedure with a simplified version of the Horton equation, and simulating runoff routing along the channel network through a matched diffusivity kinematic wave model. The robustness of the proposed methodology is tested through a comparison between simulated and observed timings of runoff or debris flow occurrence in two neighboring alpine basins.

  11. Calibration of infiltration parameters on hydrological tank model using runoff coefficient of rational method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suryoputro, Nugroho; Suhardjono, Soetopo, Widandi; Suhartanto, Ery

    2017-09-01

    In calibrating hydrological models, there are generally two stages of activity: 1) determining realistic model initial parameters in representing natural component physical processes, 2) entering initial parameter values which are then processed by trial error or automatically to obtain optimal values. To determine a realistic initial value, it takes experience and user knowledge of the model. This is a problem for beginner model users. This paper will present another approach to estimate the infiltration parameters in the tank model. The parameters will be approximated by the runoff coefficient of rational method. The value approach of infiltration parameter is simply described as the result of the difference in the percentage of total rainfall minus the percentage of runoff. It is expected that the results of this research will accelerate the calibration process of tank model parameters. The research was conducted on the sub-watershed Kali Bango in Malang Regency with an area of 239,71 km2. Infiltration measurements were carried out in January 2017 to March 2017. Analysis of soil samples at Soil Physics Laboratory, Department of Soil Science, Faculty of Agriculture, Universitas Brawijaya. Rainfall and discharge data were obtained from UPT PSAWS Bango Gedangan in Malang. Temperature, evaporation, relative humidity, wind speed data was obtained from BMKG station of Karang Ploso, Malang. The results showed that the infiltration coefficient at the top tank outlet can be determined its initial value by using the approach of the coefficient of runoff rational method with good result.

  12. A simple rainfall-runoff model for the single and long term hydrological performance of green roofs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Locatelli, Luca; Mark, Ole; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen

    Green roofs are being widely implemented for storm water control and runoff reduction. There is need for incorporating green roofs into urban drainage models in order to evaluate their impact. These models must have low computational costs and fine time resolution. This paper aims to develop...... a model of green roof hydrological performance. A simple conceptual model for the long term and single event hydrological performance of green roofs, shows to be capable of reproducing observed runoff measurements. The model has surface and subsurface storage components representing the overall retention...... capacity of the green roof. The runoff from the system is described by the non-linear reservoir method and the storage capacity of the green roof is continuously re-established by evapotranspiration. Runoff data from a green roof in Denmark are collected and used for parameter calibration....

  13. Process-oriented Simulation of Runoff Generation on Arable Fields Using a Physically Based Hydrological Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winter, F.; Disse, M.

    2011-12-01

    In Germany, aside from technical flood protection and forecasting, modern flood protection strategies include distributed flood control measures. On arable fields these measures comprise of increasing infiltration ability due to different tillage practices such as conservational tillage or no-tillage. Tillage practices have a significant effect on the runoff generation process. Bare soils are prone to forming soil crusts during extreme rainfall events especially on Loessial soils that are abundant in Central European landscapes, and soil crusts promote surface runoff and erosion. Due to the impact of raindrops, the topsoil aggregates are broken and form a layer of a few millimeters to centimeters with very low hydraulic conductivity. One way to describe this process is by using a modified Horton infiltration equation. WaSiM-ETH is a physically based hydrological modeling system developed by SCHULLA (1997) to analyze the spatial and temporal distributed flow processes in complex catchments. In order to investigate the effect of soil crusts on runoff generation on arable fields, WaSiM-ETH was extended by adding a silting module which is able to simulate the process of soil crust formation. It has been shown that sprinkler experiments could be simulated more efficiently with the model extension than with the simulation of runoff generation according to the Mualem-van-Genuchten parameterization. This effect is extended to a lower mesoscale agricultural catchment for a number of different high intensity storm events. Finally, scenario setups show the potential of surface water retention for different tillage practices. Literature: SCHULLA, J. (1997): Hydrologische Modellierung von Flussgebieten zur Abschätzung der Folgen von Klimaänderungen, Dissertation, ETH Zürich, 161. S. (in German) http://www.unibw.de/ifw/WWR-en/forschung-en/einflussbewirtschaftung-en?set_language=en

  14. Coupling a glacier evolution model and a hydrological model to simulate future runoff scenarios in the Oetztal Alps, Austria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stoll, Elena; Oesterle, Felix; Hanzer, Florian; Nemec, Johanna; Berlin, Stefan; Schöber, Johannes; Huttenlau, Matthias; Strasser, Ulrich; Achleitner, Stefan; Förster, Kristian

    2017-04-01

    Fluctuations of glacier and snow runoff play a key role in water management of alpine catchments. Consequently, the catchment water balance is strongly influenced by the variability of the seasonal snow cover and the glacier melt. The huge water storages enable a shift of the hydrological response of glaciers across time scales, leading to response times in the range of decades. In the future, an initial increase of water availability connected to higher temperatures and respective melt rates is expected to turn into a decrease as the glaciers dwindle. One key question is to predict the "moment of peak discharge" when water availability will start to decrease as a consequence of the reduction of glacierized areas. To assess the influence of a warming climate on runoff regimes of glaciated catchments, we couple a simple glacier evolution model (GEM), based on a statistical approach, with a semi-distributed hydrological model (HQsim). Climate scenarios are taken from downscaled EURO-CORDEX data for the scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, respectively. The results indicate that the impact of the glaciers on runoff regimes will very likely change towards the second half of the 21st century. Given the scenarios in which most glaciers will attain their minimum extent and sustain only at high elevation levels, the resulting runoff regime is dominated by precipitation and seasonal snow cover, since the "moment of peak discharge" is assumed to occur in the first half of the 21st century.

  15. Assessment of the runoff conditions of small ungauged catchments using GIS and fully distributed hydrologic models

    OpenAIRE

    Fárek, Vladimír; Unucka, Jan; Ponížilová, Iva; Gergeĺová, Marcela; Židek, Dušan; Pallós, Radek

    2014-01-01

    Small river basins are important not only as sources of water during the extreme runoff phases. Especially during the quite severe hydrosynoptical situations, it is necessary to determine or at least estimate the production of runoff from these areas. This is the task facing the hydrological forecast service and floods of 2009 - 2013 just accented further study of these basins. This case study deals with small basins in NP Czech Switzerland, namely Červený, Jetřichovický and Koutský ...

  16. Comparing projections of future changes in runoff from hydrological and biome models in ISI-MIP

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Davie, J. C. S.; Falloon, P. D.; Kahana, R.; Dankers, R.; Betts, R.; Portmann, F. T.; Wisser, D.; Clark, D. B.; Ito, A.; Masaki, Y.; Nishina, K.; Fekete, B.; Tessler, Z.; Wada, Y.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/341387819; Liu, X.; Tang, Q.; Hagemann, S.; Stacke, T.; Pavlick, R.; Schaphoff, S.; Gosling, S. N.; Franssen, W.; Arnell, N.

    2013-01-01

    Future changes in runoff can have important implications for water resources and flooding. In this study, runoff projections from ISI-MIP (Inter-sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project) simulations forced with HadGEM2-ES bias-corrected climate data under the Representative Concentration

  17. Sensitivity of global terrestrial gross primary production to hydrologic states simulated by the Community Land Model using two runoff parameterizations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lei, Huimin; Huang, Maoyi; Leung, L. Ruby; Yang, Dawen; Shi, Xiaoying; Mao, Jiafu; Hayes, Daniel J.; Schwalm, Christopher R.; Wei, Yaxing; Liu, Shishi

    2014-09-01

    Soil moisture plays an important role in the coupled water, energy, and carbon cycles. In addition to surface processes such as evapotranspiration, the boundary fluxes that influence soil moisture are closely related to surface or subsurface runoff. To elucidate how uncertainties in representing surface and subsurface hydrology may influence simulations of the carbon cycle, numerical experiments were performed using version 4 of the Community Land Model with two widely adopted runoff generation parameterizations from the TOPMODEL and Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model under the same protocol. The results showed that differences in the runoff generation schemes caused a relative difference of 36% and 34% in global mean total runoff and soil moisture, respectively, with substantial differences in their spatial distribution and seasonal variability. Changes in the simulated gross primary production (GPP) were found to correlate well with changes in soil moisture through its effects on leaf photosynthesis (An) and leaf area index (LAI), which are the two dominant components determining GPP. Soil temperature, which is influenced by soil moisture, also affects LAI and GPP for the seasonal-deciduous and stress-deciduous plant functional types that dominate in cold regions. Consequently, the simulated global mean GPP differs by 20.4% as a result of differences in soil moisture and soil temperature simulated between the two models. Our study highlights the significant interactions among the water, energy, and carbon cycles and the need for reducing uncertainty in the hydrologic parameterization of land surface models to better constrain carbon cycle modeling.

  18. A CN-Based Ensembled Hydrological Model for Enhanced Watershed Runoff Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Ajmal

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available A major structural inconsistency of the traditional curve number (CN model is its dependence on an unstable fixed initial abstraction, which normally results in sudden jumps in runoff estimation. Likewise, the lack of pre-storm soil moisture accounting (PSMA procedure is another inherent limitation of the model. To circumvent those problems, we used a variable initial abstraction after ensembling the traditional CN model and a French four-parameter (GR4J model to better quantify direct runoff from ungauged watersheds. To mimic the natural rainfall-runoff transformation at the watershed scale, our new parameterization designates intrinsic parameters and uses a simple structure. It exhibited more accurate and consistent results than earlier methods in evaluating data from 39 forest-dominated watersheds, both for small and large watersheds. In addition, based on different performance evaluation indicators, the runoff reproduction results show that the proposed model produced more consistent results for dry, normal, and wet watershed conditions than the other models used in this study.

  19. Coupling meteorological and hydrological models to evaluate the uncertainty in runoff forecasting: the case study of Maggiore Lake basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ceppi, A.; Ravazzani, G.; Rabuffetti, D.; Mancini, M.

    2009-04-01

    In recent years, the interest in the prediction and prevention of natural hazards related to hydro-meteorological events has increased the challenge for numerical weather modelling, in particular for limited area models, to improve the Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPFs) for hydrological purposes. The development and implementation of a real-time flood forecasting system with a hydro-meteorological operational alert procedure during the MAP-D-PHASE Project is described in this paper. D-PHASE stands for Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological and Atmospheric Simulation of flood Events in the Alpine region and is a Forecast Demonstration Project (FDP) of the WWRP (World Weather Research Programme of WMO). It aims at demonstrating some of the many achievements of the Mesoscale Alpine Programme (MAP). The MAP FDP has addressed the entire forecasting chain, ranging from limited-area ensemble forecasting, high-resolution atmospheric modelling (km-scale), hydrological modelling and nowcasting to decision making by the end users, i.e., it is foreseen to set up an end-to-end forecasting system. The D-PHASE Operations Period (DOP) was from 1 June to 30 November 2007. In this study the hydro-meteorological chain includes both probabilistic forecasting based on ensemble prediction systems with lead time of a few days and short-range forecasts based on high resolution deterministic atmospheric models. D-PHASE hydrological ensemble forecasts are based on the 16 meteorological members, provided by COSMO-LEPS model (by ARPA Emilia-Romagna) with 5 day lead-time and a horizontal resolution of 10 km. Deterministic hydrological D-PHASE forecasts are provided by MOLOCH weather model (by ISAC-CNR) with a horizontal resolution of 2.2 km, nested into BOLAM, based on GFS initial and boundary conditions with 48 h lead-time. The hydrological model used to generate the runoff simulations is the rainfall-runoff distributed FEST-WB model, developed at Politecnico di Milano. The

  20. Development of a hydrological model for simulation of runoff from catchments unbounded by ridge lines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vema, Vamsikrishna; Sudheer, K. P.; Chaubey, I.

    2017-08-01

    Watershed hydrological models are effective tools for simulating the hydrological processes in the watershed. Although there are a plethora of hydrological models, none of them can be directly applied to make water conservation decisions in irregularly bounded areas that do not confirm to topographically defined ridge lines. This study proposes a novel hydrological model that can be directly applied to any catchment, with or without ridge line boundaries. The model is based on the water balance concept, and a linear function concept to approximate the cross-boundary flow from upstream areas to the administrative catchment under consideration. The developed model is tested in 2 watersheds - Riesel Experimental Watershed and a sub-basin of Cedar Creek Watershed in Texas, USA. Hypothetical administrative catchments that did not confirm to the location of ridge lines were considered for verifying the efficacy of the model for hydrologic simulations. The linear function concept used to account the cross boundary flow was based on the hypothesis that the flow coming from outside the boundary to administrative area was proportional to the flow generated in the boundary grid cell. The model performance was satisfactory with an NSE and r2 of ≥0.80 and a PBIAS of <25 in all the cases. The simulated hydrographs for the administrative catchments of the watersheds were in good agreement with the observed hydrographs, indicating a satisfactory performance of the model in the administratively bounded areas.

  1. Distributed hydrological modelling of total dissolved phosphorus transport in an agricultural landscape, part I: distributed runoff generation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Gérard-Marchant

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Successful implementation of best management practices for reducing non-point source (NPS pollution requires knowledge of the location of saturated areas that produce runoff. A physically-based, fully-distributed, GIS-integrated model, the Soil Moisture Distribution and Routing (SMDR model was developed to simulate the hydrologic behavior of small rural upland watersheds with shallow soils and steep to moderate slopes. The model assumes that gravity is the only driving force of water and that most overland flow occurs as saturation excess. The model uses available soil and climatic data, and requires little calibration. The SMDR model was used to simulate runoff production on a 164-ha farm watershed in Delaware County, New York, in the headwaters of New York City water supply. Apart from land use, distributed input parameters were derived from readily available data. Simulated hydrographs compared reasonably with observed flows at the watershed outlet over a eight year simulation period, and peak timing and intensities were well reproduced. Using off-site weather input data produced occasional missed event peaks. Simulated soil moisture distribution agreed well with observed hydrological features and followed the same spatial trend as observed soil moisture contents sampled on four transects. Model accuracy improved when input variables were calibrated within the range of SSURGO-available parameters. The model will be a useful planning tool for reducing NPS pollution from farms in landscapes similar to the Northeastern US.

  2. Evaluation of remote-sensing-based rainfall products through predictive capability in hydrological runoff modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stisen, Simon; Sandholt, Inge

    2010-01-01

    advantage of this evaluation methodology is the integration of the rainfall model input in time and space when evaluated at the sub-catchment scale. An initial data analysis revealed significant biases in the SRFE products and large variations in rainfall amounts between SRFEs, although the spatial patterns......The emergence of regional and global satellite-based rainfall products with high spatial and temporal resolution has opened up new large-scale hydrological applications in data-sparse or ungauged catchments. Particularly, distributed hydrological models can benefit from the good spatial coverage...... and distributed nature of satellite-based rainfall estimates (SRFE). In this study, five SRFEs with temporal resolution of 24 h and spatial resolution between 8 and 27 km have been evaluated through their predictive capability in a distributed hydrological model of the Senegal River basin in West Africa. The main...

  3. Evaluating the effectiveness of management practices on hydrology and water quality at watershed scale with a rainfall-runoff model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yaoze; Bralts, Vincent F; Engel, Bernard A

    2015-04-01

    The adverse influence of urban development on hydrology and water quality can be reduced by applying best management practices (BMPs) and low impact development (LID) practices. This study applied green roof, rain barrel/cistern, bioretention system, porous pavement, permeable patio, grass strip, grassed swale, wetland channel, retention pond, detention basin, and wetland basin, on Crooked Creek watershed. The model was calibrated and validated for annual runoff volume. A framework for simulating BMPs and LID practices at watershed scales was created, and the impacts of BMPs and LID practices on water quantity and water quality were evaluated with the Long-Term Hydrologic Impact Assessment-Low Impact Development 2.1 (L-THIA-LID 2.1) model for 16 scenarios. The various levels and combinations of BMPs/LID practices reduced runoff volume by 0 to 26.47%, Total Nitrogen (TN) by 0.30 to 34.20%, Total Phosphorus (TP) by 0.27 to 47.41%, Total Suspended Solids (TSS) by 0.33 to 53.59%, Lead (Pb) by 0.30 to 60.98%, Biochemical Oxygen Demand (BOD) by 0 to 26.70%, and Chemical Oxygen Demand (COD) by 0 to 27.52%. The implementation of grass strips in 25% of the watershed where this practice could be applied was the most cost-efficient scenario, with cost per unit reduction of $1m3/yr for runoff, while cost for reductions of two pollutants of concern was $445 kg/yr for Total Nitrogen (TN) and $4871 kg/yr for Total Phosphorous (TP). The scenario with very high levels of BMP and LID practice adoption (scenario 15) reduced runoff volume and pollutant loads from 26.47% to 60.98%, and provided the greatest reduction in runoff volume and pollutant loads among all scenarios. However, this scenario was not as cost-efficient as most other scenarios. The L-THIA-LID 2.1 model is a valid tool that can be applied to various locations to help identify cost effective BMP/LID practice plans at watershed scales. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Hydrologic model parameterization using dynamic Landsat-based foliar cover estimates for runoff simulation on a semiarid grassland watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kautz, Mark A.

    Changes in watershed vegetative cover from natural and anthropogenic causes including, climatic fluctuations, wildfires and land management practices, can result in increased surface water runoff and erosion. Hydrologic models play an important role in the decision support process for managing these landscape alterations. However, model parameterization requires quantified measures of watershed biophysical condition to generate accurate results. These inputs are often obtained from nationally available land cover data sets that are static in terms of vegetation condition and phenology. Obtaining vegetative data for model input of sufficient spatiotemporal resolution for long-term, watershed-scale change analysis has been a challenge. The purpose of this research was to assess the implications of parameterizing the event-based, Rangeland Hydrology and Erosion Model (RHEM) with dynamic, remotely sensed foliar cover data. The study was conducted on a small, instrumented, grassland watershed within the Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed surrounding Tombstone, Arizona. A time series of foliar cover rasters was produced by calibrating Landsat-based Soil Adjusted Total Vegetation Index (SATVI) scenes with field measurements. Estimates of basal and litter cover were calculated using allometric relationships derived from ground-based transect data. The model was parameterized using these remotely sensed inputs for all recorded runoff events from 1996-2014. Model performance was improved using the remotely sensed foliar cover compared to using an a priori value based on static national land cover classes. Significant (plitter cover. The integration of Landsat-based vegetative data into RHEM shows potential for modelling on a broadened spatiotemporal scale, allowing for improved landscape characterization and the ability to track watershed response to long-term vegetation changes.

  5. A meteo-hydrological modelling system for the reconstruction of river runoff: the case of the Ofanto river catchment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verri, Giorgia; Pinardi, Nadia; Gochis, David; Tribbia, Joseph; Navarra, Antonio; Coppini, Giovanni; Vukicevic, Tomislava

    2017-10-01

    A meteo-hydrological modelling system has been designed for the reconstruction of long time series of rainfall and river runoff events. The modelling chain consists of the mesoscale meteorological model of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF), the land surface model NOAH-MP and the hydrology-hydraulics model WRF-Hydro. Two 3-month periods are reconstructed for winter 2011 and autumn 2013, containing heavy rainfall and river flooding events. Several sensitivity tests were performed along with an assessment of which tunable parameters, numerical choices and forcing data most impacted on the modelling performance.The calibration of the experiments highlighted that the infiltration and aquifer coefficients should be considered as seasonally dependent.The WRF precipitation was validated by a comparison with rain gauges in the Ofanto basin. The WRF model was demonstrated to be sensitive to the initialization time and a spin-up of about 1.5 days was needed before the start of the major rainfall events in order to improve the accuracy of the reconstruction. However, this was not sufficient and an optimal interpolation method was developed to correct the precipitation simulation. It is based on an objective analysis (OA) and a least square (LS) melding scheme, collectively named OA+LS. We demonstrated that the OA+LS method is a powerful tool to reduce the precipitation uncertainties and produce a lower error precipitation reconstruction that itself generates a better river discharge time series. The validation of the river streamflow showed promising statistical indices.The final set-up of our meteo-hydrological modelling system was able to realistically reconstruct the local rainfall and the Ofanto hydrograph.

  6. Assessment of runoff contributing catchment areas in rainfall runoff modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorndahl, Søren; Johansen, C.; Schaarup-Jensen, Kjeld

    2006-01-01

    In numerical modelling of rainfall caused runoff in urban sewer systems an essential parameter is the hydrological reduction factor which defines the percentage of the impervious area contributing to the surface flow towards the sewer. As the hydrological processes during a rainfall are difficult...... to determine with significant precision the hydrological reduction factor is implemented to account all hydrological losses except the initial loss. This paper presents an inconsistency between calculations of the hydrological reduction factor, based on measurements of rainfall and runoff, and till now...... recommended literature values for residential areas. It is proven by comparing rainfall-runoff measurements from four different residential catchments that the literature values of the hydrological reduction factor are over-estimated for this type of catchment. In addition, different catchment descriptions...

  7. Assessment of Runoff Contributing Catchment Areas in Rainfall Runoff Modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorndahl, Søren Liedtke; Johansen, C.; Schaarup-Jensen, Kjeld

    2005-01-01

    In numerical modelling of rainfall caused runoff in urban sewer systems an essential parameter is the hydrological reduction factor which defines the percentage of the impervious area contributing to the surface flow towards the sewer. As the hydrological processes during a rainfall are difficult...... to determine with significant precision the hydrological reduction factor is implemented to account all hydrological losses except the initial loss. This paper presents an inconsistency between calculations of the hydrological reduction factor, based on measurements of rainfall and runoff, and till now...... recommended literary values for residential areas. It is proven by comparing rainfall-runoff measurements from four different residential catchments that the literary values of the hydrological reduction factor are over-estimated for this type of catchments. In addition, different catchment descriptions...

  8. Linking collection of stormwater runoff to managed aquifer recharge using a geographic information system and hydrologic modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teo, E. K.; Young, K. S.; Beganskas, S.; Fisher, A. T.; Lozano, S.; Weir, W. B.; Harmon, R. E.

    2016-12-01

    We are completing a regional analysis of Santa Cruz and northern Monterey Counties, CA to assess conditions for using distributed stormwater collection to support managed aquifer recharge (DSC-MAR). DSC-MAR constitutes an important component in a portfolio of innovative techniques being developed in order to improve groundwater management and to adapt to prolonged drought and changes in climate and anthropogenic water demands by increasing recharge during and soon after winter precipitation events, the season when excess water is most abundant. Our analyses focus specifically on the distributed collection of stormwater runoff, a source that has historically been treated as a nuisance, with the goal of infiltrating ≥100 ac-ft/yr within individual projects. The first part of this project is a spatial analysis, using a geographic information system to combine surface and subsurface data. There is complete spatial coverage for most surface data (elevation, soil and bedrock properties, land use) for the full study region ( 1,400 km2), but subsurface data (aquifer distribution, properties, and storage space) are available for only 43% of the region. Sites that are most suitable for DSC-MAR have high soil infiltration capacity, are well-connected to an underlying aquifer with good transmissive and storage properties, and have space to receive water. Based on surface data, 35% of the region is suitable for MAR (480 km2). In contrast, 14% of the area for which both surface and subsurface datasets are available is suitable for MAR (84 km2). We have assessed the availability of hillslope runoff for collection in support of MAR using a distributed hydrologic model (PRMS) and a catalog of historical, high-resolution climate data. In the simulations, enclosed topographic basins are divided into hydrologic response units (HRUs) having an area of 25 to 250 acres (0.1 to 1 km2). Simulations of the San Lorenzo River Basin (SLRB), northern Santa Cruz County, suggest that during

  9. Integration of Spatially Hydrological Modelling on Bentong Catchment, Pahang, Peninsular Malaysia Using Distributed GIS-based Rainfall Runoff Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rosli, M.H.

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available With the advance of GIS technology, hydrology model can simulated at catchment wide scale. The objective is to integrate National Resource Conservation Service (NRCS Curve Number (CN with kinematic wave and manning’s equation using GIS to develop a simple GIS-based distributed model to simulate rainfall runoff in Bentong catchment. Model was built using Spatial Distributed Direct Hydrograph (SDDH concept and applying the time area (TA approach in presenting the predicted discharge hydrograph. The effective precipitation estimation was first calculated using the NRCS CN method. Then, the core maps that consists of digital elevation model (DEM, soil and land use map in grid. DEM was used to derive slope, flow direction and flow accumulation while soil and land use map used to derive roughness coefficient and CN. The overland velocity and channel velocity estimation derived from combination of kinematic wave theory with Manning’s equation. To capture the time frame, the travel time map was divided into isochrones in order to generate the TA histogram and finally. The creation of SDDH using the TA histogram which will lead to the estimation of travel time for the catchment. Simulated hydrograph was plotted together with the observed discharge for comparison. Six storm events used for model performance evaluation using statistical measure such as Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE, percent bias (PBIAS and coefficient of determination (R2;. SDDH model performed quite well as NSE gave result ranging from 0.55 to 0.68 with mean of 0.6. PBIAS indicate that the model slightly over predicted compared to observed hydrograph with result ranges from -46.71 (the most over predicted to +4.83 (the most under predicted with average of -20.73%. R2; ranges between 0.55 to 0.82 with mean of 0.67. When comparing the time to peak, (tp, min, and peak discharge, (pd, m3/s, results gave NSEtp 0.82, PBIAStp 0.65, R2tp 0.32, NSEpd 0.95, PBIASpd 14.49 and R2pd 0

  10. The impact of runoff and surface hydrology on Titan's climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faulk, Sean; Lora, Juan; Mitchell, Jonathan

    2017-10-01

    Titan’s surface liquid distribution has been shown by general circulation models (GCMs) to greatly influence the hydrological cycle. Simulations from the Titan Atmospheric Model (TAM) with imposed polar methane “wetlands” reservoirs realistically produce many observed features of Titan’s atmosphere, whereas “aquaplanet” simulations with a global methane ocean are not as successful. In addition, wetlands simulations, unlike aquaplanet simulations, demonstrate strong correlations between extreme rainfall behavior and observed geomorphic features, indicating the influential role of precipitation in shaping Titan’s surface. The wetlands configuration is, in part, motivated by Titan’s large-scale topography featuring low-latitude highlands and high-latitude lowlands, with the implication being that methane may concentrate in the high-latitude lowlands by way of runoff and subsurface flow. However, the extent to which topography controls the surface liquid distribution and thus impacts the global hydrological cycle by driving surface and subsurface flow is unclear. Here we present TAM simulations wherein the imposed wetlands reservoirs are replaced by a surface runoff scheme that allows surface liquid to self-consistently redistribute under the influence of topography. To isolate the singular impact of surface runoff on Titan’s climatology, we run simulations without parameterizations of subsurface flow and topography-atmosphere interactions. We discuss the impact of surface runoff on the surface liquid distribution over seasonal timescales and compare the resulting hydrological cycle to observed cloud and surface features, as well as to the hydrological cycles of the TAM wetlands and aquaplanet simulations. While still idealized, this more realistic representation of Titan’s hydrology provides new insight into the complex interaction between Titan’s atmosphere and surface, demonstrates the influence of surface runoff on Titan’s global climate

  11. Comparative Assessment of Runoff and its Components in Two Catchments of Upper Indus Basin by Using a Semi Distributed Glacio-Hydrological Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ali, S. H.; Bano, I.; Kayastha, R. B.; Shrestha, A.

    2017-09-01

    The hydrology of Upper Indus basin is not recognized well due to the intricacies in the climate and geography, and the scarcity of data above 5000 m a.s.l where most of the precipitation falls in the form of snow. The main objective of this study is to measure the contributions of different components of runoff in Upper Indus basin. To achieve this goal, the Modified positive degree day model (MPDDM) was used to simulate the runoff and investigate its components in two catchments of Upper Indus basin, Hunza and Gilgit River basins. These two catchments were selected because of their different glacier coverage, contrasting area distribution at high altitudes and significant impact on the Upper Indus River flow. The components of runoff like snow-ice melt and rainfall-base flow were identified by the model. The simulation results show that the MPDDM shows a good agreement between observed and modeled runoff of these two catchments and the effects of snow and ice are mainly reliant on the catchment characteristics and the glaciated area. For Gilgit River basin, the largest contributor to runoff is rain-base flow, whereas large contribution of snow-ice melt observed in Hunza River basin due to its large fraction of glaciated area. This research will not only contribute to the better understanding of the impacts of climate change on the hydrological response in the Upper Indus, but will also provide guidance for the development of hydropower potential and water resources assessment in these catchments.

  12. On hydrologic similarity: A dimensionless flood frequency model using a generalized geomorphologic unit hydrograph and partial area runoff generation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sivapalan, Murugesu; Wood, Eric F.; Beven, Keith J.

    1993-01-01

    One of the shortcomings of the original theory of the geomorphologic unit hydrograph (GUH) is that it assumes that runoff is generated uniformly from the entire catchment area. It is now recognized that in many catchments much of the runoff during storm events is produced on partial areas which usually form on narrow bands along the stream network. A storm response model that includes runoff generation on partial areas by both Hortonian and Dunne mechanisms was recently developed by the authors. In this paper a methodology for integrating this partial area runoff generation model with the GUH-based runoff routing model is presented; this leads to a generalized GUH. The generalized GUH and the storm response model are then used to estimate physically based flood frequency distributions. In most previous work the initial moisture state of the catchment had been assumed to be constant for all the storms. In this paper we relax this assumption and allow the initial moisture conditions to vary between storms. The resulting flood frequency distributions are cast in a scaled dimensionless framework where issues such as catchment scale and similarity can be conveniently addressed. A number of experiments are performed to study the sensitivity of the flood frequency response to some of the 'similarity' parameters identified in this formulation. The results indicate that one of the most important components of the derived flood frequency model relates to the specification of processes within the runoff generation model; specifically the inclusion of both saturation excess and Horton infiltration excess runoff production mechanisms. The dominance of these mechanisms over different return periods of the flood frequency distribution can significantly affect the distributional shape and confidence limits about the distribution. Comparisons with observed flood distributions seem to indicate that such mixed runoff production mechanisms influence flood distribution shape. The

  13. Investigating causes of changes in runoff using hydrological simulation approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Guoqing; Zhang, Jianyun; Li, Xuemei; Bao, Zhenxin; Liu, Yanli; Liu, Cuishan; He, Ruimin; Luo, Junsong

    2017-09-01

    Stream flow plays a crucial role in environmental, social and economic contexts. It is of significance to investigate the causes of change in runoff for better water resources management. This study detects the variation trend of recorded runoff of the Gushan River, a tributary of the Yellow River located on the Loess Plateau with severe soil and water losing, and investigates the impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff using hydrological simulation approach. Results show that the recorded runoff at Gaoshiya station on the Gushan River has experienced a significant declining trend from 1954-2013 with an abrupt change occurring in 1973. SimHyd rainfall runoff model performs well for monthly discharge simulation with Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of 82.6 % and relative error of 0.32 %. Runoff depth over the catchment in 1980-2013 reduced by 52.4 mm compared to the previous period, in which human activities and climate change contribute 61.5 and 38.5 % of the total runoff reduction, respectively. However, the human-induced impact tends to increase. Therefore, efforts to improve the ecology of the Loess Plateau should give sufficient attention to the impacts of human activity.

  14. Integrated Landsat Image Analysis and Hydrologic Modeling to Detect Impacts of 25-Year Land-Cover Change on Surface Runoff in a Philippine Watershed

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Enrico Paringit

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Landsat MSS and ETM+ images were analyzed to detect 25-year land-cover change (1976–2001 in the critical Taguibo Watershed in Mindanao Island, Southern Philippines. This watershed has experienced historical modifications of its land-cover due to the presence of logging industries in the 1950s, and continuous deforestation due to illegal logging and slash-and-burn agriculture in the present time. To estimate the impacts of land-cover change on watershed runoff, land-cover information derived from the Landsat images was utilized to parameterize a GIS-based hydrologic model. The model was then calibrated with field-measured discharge data and used to simulate the responses of the watershed in its year 2001 and year 1976 land-cover conditions. The availability of land-cover information on the most recent state of the watershed from the Landsat ETM+ image made it possible to locate areas for rehabilitation such as barren and logged-over areas. We then created a “rehabilitated” land-cover condition map of the watershed (re-forestation of logged-over areas and agro-forestation of barren areas and used it to parameterize the model and predict the runoff responses of the watershed. Model results showed that changes in land-cover from 1976 to 2001 were directly related to the significant increase in surface runoff. Runoff predictions showed that a full rehabilitation of the watershed, especially in barren and logged-over areas, will be likely to reduce the generation of a huge volume of runoff during rainfall events. The results of this study have demonstrated the usefulness of multi-temporal Landsat images in detecting land-cover change, in identifying areas for rehabilitation, and in evaluating rehabilitation strategies for management of tropical watersheds through its use in hydrologic modeling.

  15. Improving flash flood forecasting through coupling of a distributed hydrologic rainfall-runoff model (HL-RDHM) with a hydraulic model (BreZo)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, P.; Sorooshian, S.; Hsu, K.; AghaKouchak, A.; Sanders, B. F.; Smith, M. B.; Koren, V.

    2012-12-01

    Flash floods can be the most devastating events causing heavy life and economic losses. Improving flash flood warning in regions prone to hydrologic extremes is one highest priority of watershed managers. In this study, a distributed flash flood modeling system is presented. This system consists of advantages of a distributed hydrologic model (HL-RDHM) and the appropriate level of physical representation of channel flow through a high-resolution hydraulic model (BreZo). HL-RDHM is employed as a rainfall-runoff generator for runoff flow simulation, while the output from HL-RDHM is then used as input for the BreZo model, which simulates fine resolution flow in the river/channel system. The surface runoff generated from HL-RDHM is zoned to sub-catchment outlets and each outlet is considered as a point source to the channels. Multiple point sources are then simulated within BreZo to produce flash flood simulations in spatial and temporal distribution for the particular river/channel system and/or floodplain. A case study was carried out for ELDO2 catchment in Oklahoma. ArcGIS Terrain Processing tools were used to divide ELDO2 (10m resolution) into sub-catchments with outlets. The surface flow from HL-RDHM was re-gridded to 10m resolution, then zoned to the 57 sub-catchments. The results obtained are very promising not only for better simulating the total discharge at the watershed outlet, but also for capturing the spatial distribution of flooded area in the floodplains. Flooded map of ELDO2 (in meters) during the extreme event starting at 06/21/2000 10:00:00

  16. Application of artificial neural networks in hydrological modeling: A case study of runoff simulation of a Himalayan glacier basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buch, A. M.; Narain, A.; Pandey, P. C.

    1994-01-01

    The simulation of runoff from a Himalayan Glacier basin using an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is presented. The performance of the ANN model is found to be superior to the Energy Balance Model and the Multiple Regression model. The RMS Error is used as the figure of merit for judging the performance of the three models, and the RMS Error for the ANN model is the latest of the three models. The ANN is faster in learning and exhibits excellent system generalization characteristics.

  17. COMPARATIVE ASSESSMENT OF RUNOFF AND ITS COMPONENTS IN TWO CATCHMENTS OF UPPER INDUS BASIN BY USING A SEMI DISTRIBUTED GLACIO-HYDROLOGICAL MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. H. Ali

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The hydrology of Upper Indus basin is not recognized well due to the intricacies in the climate and geography, and the scarcity of data above 5000 m a.s.l where most of the precipitation falls in the form of snow. The main objective of this study is to measure the contributions of different components of runoff in Upper Indus basin. To achieve this goal, the Modified positive degree day model (MPDDM was used to simulate the runoff and investigate its components in two catchments of Upper Indus basin, Hunza and Gilgit River basins. These two catchments were selected because of their different glacier coverage, contrasting area distribution at high altitudes and significant impact on the Upper Indus River flow. The components of runoff like snow-ice melt and rainfall-base flow were identified by the model. The simulation results show that the MPDDM shows a good agreement between observed and modeled runoff of these two catchments and the effects of snow and ice are mainly reliant on the catchment characteristics and the glaciated area. For Gilgit River basin, the largest contributor to runoff is rain-base flow, whereas large contribution of snow-ice melt observed in Hunza River basin due to its large fraction of glaciated area. This research will not only contribute to the better understanding of the impacts of climate change on the hydrological response in the Upper Indus, but will also provide guidance for the development of hydropower potential and water resources assessment in these catchments.

  18. A comparison of changes in river runoff from multiple global and catchment-scale hydrological models under global warming scenarios of 1 °C, 2 °C and 3 °C

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gosling, S.N.; Zaherpour, J.J.; Mount, N.J.; Hattermann, F.F.; Dankers, R.; Arheimer, B.; Breuer, L.; Ding, J.; Haddeland, I.; Kumar, R.; Kundu, D.; Liu, J.; van Griensven, A.; Veldkamp, T.I.E.; Vetter, T.; Wang, X.; Zhang, X.

    2016-01-01

    We present one of the first climate change impact assessments on river runoff that utilises an ensemble of global hydrological models (Glob-HMs) and an ensemble of catchment-scale hydrological models (Cat-HMs), across multiple catchments: the upper Amazon, Darling, Ganges, Lena, upper Mississippi,

  19. An Implementation of Estimation Techniques to a Hydrological Model for Prediction of Runoff to a Hydroelectric Power-Station

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Magne Fjeld

    1981-01-01

    Full Text Available Parameter and state estimation algorithms have been applied to a hydrological model of a catchment area in southern Norway to yield improved control of the household of water resources and better economy and efficiency in the running of the power station, as experience proves since the system was installed on-line in the summer of 1978.

  20. Runoff analysis of urban area using urban runoff models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ahn, Sang-Jin; Kim, Jin-Geg [Chungbuk National University, Cheongju (Korea)

    1999-08-31

    The flood damage has being increased because of urbanization due to the industrialization and the growth of population. Therefore, the hydrologic properties such as increasing the peak flow and decreasing the concentration time of the peak flow have been changed. Hence, the interest of an urban prevention against flood disasters has been centralized at the present day. The objectives of this study is to develop the suitable models to calculate the runoff characteristics from an urban basin. This study describes the properties of each urban hydrologic model and to determine suitable basin model using the ILLUDAS and SWMM models in the urban runoff models in the Yong-Ahm area at Chungju. The peak flow, concentration time and total runoff value of this area are compared and analyzed with regard to calculated and real values. After obtaining values appropriated from the ILLUDAS and SWMM models using 5 rainfall events in this areas, the peak flows, concentration times and total runoff values are compared with real values. As a result of this study, the Transport block of the SWMM is closely shown to real values. (author). 11 refs., 6 tabs., 13 figs.

  1. Development of rainfall-runoff forecast model | Oyebode | Journal of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study developed a neurofuzzy-based rainfall-runoff forecast model for river basin and evaluated the performance of the model. This was with a view to capturing the behaviour of hydrological and meterological variables involved in rainfall-runoff process to improve forecast accuracy of rainfallrunoff. Three hydrological ...

  2. Assimilating high resolution remotely sensed soil moisture into a distributed hydrologic model to improve runoff prediction: a case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mason, David; Garcia-Pintado, Javier; Cloke, Hannah; Dance, Sarah

    2017-04-01

    The susceptibility of a catchment to flooding during an extreme rainfall event is affected by its soil moisture condition prior to the event. This paper describes a study attempting to improve a distributed hydrological model by assimilating remotely sensed soil moisture in order to keep the model flow rate predictions on track in readiness for an intense rainfall event. The work is being funded within the SINATRA project of the UK NERC Flooding from Intense Rainfall (FFIR) programme. The recent launch of Sentinel-1 has stimulated interest in measuring soil moisture at high resolution suitable for hydrological studies using active SARs. One advantage of high resolution data may be that, when used in conjunction with land cover data, soil moisture values may be obtained over pixels of low vegetation cover (e.g. grassland). This may reduce the component of the backscattered signal due to vegetation, which for dense vegetation types may be a significant proportion of the whole. Additionally, backscatter contamination problems caused by mixed pixels containing unknown amounts of more than one land cover type within their coverage can be avoided. Sentinel-1 has been launched only recently, and has yet to build up a substantive sequence of flood event data suitable for analysis. As a result, ASAR WS data were used for this study. ASAR is C-band like Sentinel-1, and has a long data record. The hydrologic model HSPF was made fully spatially distributed to make it able to properly ingest the high resolution satellite surface soil moisture information, and to conduct assimilation analyses. A 1 km grid cell size was used. The study area covered the catchments of the Severn, Avon and Teme rivers (plus a further 4 sub-catchments) in the South West UK. The results of assimilating ASAR soil moisture readings over this area were compared with those of assimilating low resolution ASCAT readings. For the ASAR data, in each 1 km model grid cell, the 75 m surface soil moisture values

  3. Modeling the runoff regime of the glacierised upper Aconcagua River Basin using a physically-based distributed hydrological model: the value of short term glaciological observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ragettli, S.; Pellicciotti, F.; Molnar, D.; Rimkus, S.; Helbing, J.; Escobar, F.; Burlando, P.

    2010-12-01

    In the Central Andes of Chile the interactions between snow, glaciers and water resources are governed by a distinct climatological forcing. Summers are dry and stable, with precipitation close to zero, low relative humidity and intense solar radiation. During the summer months, water originates almost exclusively from snow and ice melt. Evidence of glaciers retreat and changes in the seasonal snow cover suggests that climate change might have an impact on the water resources in the area. We use the physically-based, spatially-distributed hydrological model TOPKAPI to study the processes governing the exchange between the climate, snow and ice in the upper Aconcagua River Basin. The model incorporates the melting of snow and ice based on a simplified energy-balance approach (ETI model) and the routing of melt water through the glacial system. The model has numerous empirical parameters used in the computation of the single components of the hydrological cycle, the determination of which might lead to problems of equifinality. To address this issue we set up a rigorous calibration procedure that allows calibration of the main model parameters in three different steps by separating parameters governing distinct processes. We evaluate the parameters’ transferability in time and investigate the differences in model parameters and performance that result from applying the model at different spatial scales. The model ability to simulate the relevant processes is tested against a data set of meteorological data, measurements of surface ablation and glacier runoff at the snout of the Juncal Norte Glacier during two ablation seasons. Modeled snow height is compared to snow maps derived from terrestrial photos and MODIS images. Results show that the magnitude of snow and icemelt rates on the glacier tongue is correctly reproduced, but simulations at higher elevation have a larger uncertainty. Crucial factors affecting model performance are the model ability to simulate the

  4. Combined Hydrologic (AGWA-KINEROS2) and Hydraulic (HEC2) Modeling for Post-Fire Runoff and Inundation Risk Assessment through a Set of Python Tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barlow, J. E.; Goodrich, D. C.; Guertin, D. P.; Burns, I. S.

    2016-12-01

    Wildfires in the Western United States can alter landscapes by removing vegetation and changing soil properties. These altered landscapes produce more runoff than pre-fire landscapes which can lead to post-fire flooding that can damage infrastructure and impair natural resources. Resources, structures, historical artifacts and others that could be impacted by increased runoff are considered values at risk. .The Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment tool (AGWA) allows users to quickly set up and execute the Kinematic Runoff and Erosion model (KINEROS2 or K2) in the ESRI ArcMap environment. The AGWA-K2 workflow leverages the visualization capabilities of GIS to facilitate evaluation of rapid watershed assessments for post-fire planning efforts. High relative change in peak discharge, as simulated by K2, provides a visual and numeric indicator to investigate those channels in the watershed that should be evaluated for more detailed analysis, especially if values at risk are within or near that channel. Modeling inundation extent along a channel would provide more specific guidance about risk along a channel. HEC-2 and HEC-RAS can be used for hydraulic modeling efforts at the reach and river system scale. These models have been used to address flood boundaries and, accordingly, flood risk. However, data collection and organization for hydraulic models can be time consuming and therefore a combined hydrologic-hydraulic modeling approach is not often employed for rapid assessments. A simplified approach could streamline this process and provide managers with a simple workflow and tool to perform a quick risk assessment for a single reach. By focusing on a single reach highlighted by large relative change in peak discharge, data collection efforts can be minimized and the hydraulic computations can be performed to supplement risk analysis. The incorporation of hydraulic analysis through a suite of Python tools (as outlined by HEC-2) with AGWA-K2 will allow more rapid

  5. Investigation of the energy-based theory of runoff in arctic regions with a hydrological model that couples the heat and water balance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quinton, W. L.; Endrizzi, S.; Marsh, P.

    2010-12-01

    Runoff production is strongly dependent on the ground-thawing process in most arctic and subarctic permafrost regions covered by taiga and tundra, where the ground contains a relatively thin (i.e. 0.05-1.0 m) organic layer, overlying mineral sediment. The organic layer is characterized by high hydraulic conductivity, in contrast to the lower hydraulic conductivity of the underlying mineral sediment. As a consequence, hillslope drainage occurs predominantly below the ground surface, and, in particular, between the relatively impermeable frost table and the ground surface. In addition, in the first 0.2-0.3 m below the surface, the saturated hydraulic conductivity of the organic soil decreases by approximately 2 orders of magnitude with increasing depth. Early in the thaw period, when the frost table is still relatively close to the ground surface, lateral flow therefore occurs in the portion of the active layer with highest hydraulic conductivity. Later in the thaw season, as a result of the deepening of the frost table, the lateral flow rate is substantially lower since horizontal drainage occurs through the portion of soil with low hydraulic conductivity. This process has been conceptualized as the energy-based theory of runoff, and can only be investigated with a model that couples the heat and water flow equations in the soil. The GEOtop distributed hydrological model is a grid-based model with a complete surface energy balance scheme that accounts for variations in both the turbulent fluxes of sensible and latent heat, as well as for variations in radiant fluxes. The model also has a coupled subsurface heat and water flux scheme that is able to route water and energy both vertically between a large number of soil layers, and horizontally between grids. The model has been applied and tested with satisfying results in 3 different basins in the Canadian Arctic: Trail Valley Creek (NWT) located just North of treeline in the Mackenzie delta, Big Lake (NWT) in

  6. Comparative Assessment of a New Hydrological Modelling Approach for Prediction of Runoff in Gauged and Ungauged Basins, and Climate Change Impacts Assessment: A Case Study from Benin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    GABA, C. O. U.; Alamou, E.; Afouda, A.; Diekkrüger, B.

    2016-12-01

    Assessing water resources is still an important challenge especially in the context of climatic changes. Although numerous hydrological models exist, new approaches are still under investigation. In this context, we investigate a new modelling approach based on the Physics Principle of Least Action which was first applied to the Bétérou catchment in Benin and gave very good results. The study presents new hypotheses to go further in the model development with a view of widening its application. The improved version of the model MODHYPMA was applied to sixteen (16) subcatchments in Bénin, West Africa. Its performance was compared to two well-known lumped conceptual models, the GR4J and HBV models. The model was successfully calibrated and validated and showed a good performance in most catchments. The analysis revealed that the three models have similar performance and timing errors. But in contrary to other models, MODHYMA is subject to a less loss of performance from calibration to validation. In order to evaluate the usefulness of our model for the prediction of runoff in ungauged basins, model parameters were estimated from the physical catchments characteristics. We relied on statistical methods applied on calibrated model parameters to deduce relationships between parameters and physical catchments characteristics. These relationships were further tested and validated on gauged basins that were considered ungauged. This regionalization was also performed for GR4J model.We obtained NSE values greater than 0.7 for MODHYPMA while the NSE values for GR4J were inferior to 0.5. In the presented study, the effects of climate change on water resources in the Ouémé catchment at the outlet of Savè (about 23 500 km2) are quantified. The output of a regional climate model was used as input to the hydrological models.Computed within the GLOWA-IMPETUS project, the future climate projections (describing a rainfall reduction of up to 15%) are derived from the regional

  7. Surface runoff in flat terrain: How field topography and runoff generating processes control hydrological connectivity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Appels, W.M.; Bogaart, P.W.; Bogaart, P.W.; Zee, van der S.E.A.T.M.

    2016-01-01

    In flat lowland agricultural catchments in temperate climate zones with highly permeable sandy soils, surface runoff is a rare process with a large impact on the redistribution of sediments and solutes and stream water quality. We examine hydrological data obtained on two field sites in the

  8. Comparative Analysis of Uncertainties in Urban Surface Runoff Modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorndahl, Søren; Schaarup-Jensen, Kjeld

    2007-01-01

    In the present paper a comparison between three different surface runoff models, in the numerical urban drainage tool MOUSE, is conducted. Analysing parameter uncertainty, it is shown that the models are very sensitive with regards to the choice of hydrological parameters, when combined overflow...... analysis, further research in improved parameter assessment for surface runoff models is needed....

  9. A glacier runoff extension to the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Beusekom, Ashley; Viger, Roland

    2016-01-01

    A module to simulate glacier runoff, PRMSglacier, was added to PRMS (Precipitation Runoff Modeling System), a distributed-parameter, physical-process hydrological simulation code. The extension does not require extensive on-glacier measurements or computational expense but still relies on physical principles over empirical relations as much as is feasible while maintaining model usability. PRMSglacier is validated on two basins in Alaska, Wolverine, and Gulkana Glacier basin, which have been studied since 1966 and have a substantial amount of data with which to test model performance over a long period of time covering a wide range of climatic and hydrologic conditions. When error in field measurements is considered, the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies of streamflow are 0.87 and 0.86, the absolute bias fractions of the winter mass balance simulations are 0.10 and 0.08, and the absolute bias fractions of the summer mass balances are 0.01 and 0.03, all computed over 42 years for the Wolverine and Gulkana Glacier basins, respectively. Without taking into account measurement error, the values are still within the range achieved by the more computationally expensive codes tested over shorter time periods.

  10. Rainfall-runoff modelling and palaeoflood hydrology applied to reconstruct centennial scale records of flooding and aquifer recharge in ungauged ephemeral rivers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Benito

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available In this study we propose a multi-source data approach for quantifying long-term flooding and aquifer recharge in ungauged ephemeral rivers. The methodology is applied to the Buffels River, at 9000 km2 the largest ephemeral river in Namaqualand (NW South Africa, a region with scarce stream flow records limiting research investigating hydrological response to global change. Daily discharge and annual flood series (1965–2006 were estimated from a distributed rainfall-runoff hydrological model (TETIS using rainfall gauge records located within the catchment. The model was calibrated and validated with data collected during a two year monitoring programme (2005–2006 at two stream flow stations, one each in the upper and lower reaches of the catchment. In addition to the modelled flow records, non-systematic flood data were reconstructed using both sedimentary and documentary evidence. The palaeoflood record identified at least 25 large floods during the last 700 yr; with the largest floods reaching a minimum discharge of 255 m3 s−1 (450 yr return period in the upper basin, and 510 m3 s−1 (100 yr return period in the lower catchment. Since AD 1925, the flood hydrology of the Buffels River has been characterised by a decrease in the magnitude and frequency of extreme floods, with palaeoflood discharges (period 1500–1921 five times greater than the largest modelled floods during the period 1965–2006. Large floods generated the highest hydrograph volumes, however their contribution to aquifer recharge is limited as this depends on other factors such as flood duration and storage capacity of the unsaturated zone prior to the flood. Floods having average return intervals of 5–10 yr (120–140 m3 s−1 and flowing for 12 days are able to fully saturate the Spektakel aquifer in the lower Buffels River basin. Alluvial aquifer storage capacity limiting potential recharge

  11. The paradoxical evolution of runoff in the pastoral Sahel: analysis of the hydrological changes over the Agoufou watershed (Mali) using the KINEROS-2 model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gal, Laetitia; Grippa, Manuela; Hiernaux, Pierre; Pons, Léa; Kergoat, Laurent

    2017-09-01

    In recent decades, the Sahel has witnessed a paradoxical increase in surface water despite a general precipitation decline. This phenomenon, commonly referred to as the Sahelian paradox, is not completely understood yet. The role of cropland expansion due to the increasing food demand by a growing population has been often put forward to explain this situation for the cultivated Sahel. However, this hypothesis does not hold in pastoral areas where the same phenomenon is observed. Several other processes, such as the degradation of natural vegetation following the major droughts of the 1970s and the 1980s, the development of crusted topsoils, the intensification of the rainfall regime and the development of the drainage network, have been suggested to account for this situation. In this paper, a modeling approach is proposed to explore, quantify and rank different processes that could be at play in pastoral Sahel. The kinematic runoff and erosion model (KINEROS-2) is applied to the Agoufou watershed (245 km2), in the Gourma region in Mali, which underwent a significant increase of surface runoff during the last 60 years. Two periods are simulated, the past case (1960-1975) preceding the Sahelian drought and the present case (2000-2015). Surface hydrology and land cover characteristics for these two periods are derived by the analysis of aerial photographs, available in 1956, and high-resolution remote sensing images in 2011. The major changes identified are (1) a partial crusting of isolated dunes, (2) an increase of drainage network density, (3) a marked decrease in vegetation with the nonrecovery of tiger bush and vegetation growing on shallow sandy soils, and (4) important changes in soil properties with the apparition of impervious soils instead of shallow sandy soil. The KINEROS-2 model was parameterized to simulate these changes in combination or independently. The results obtained by this model display a significant increase in annual discharge between the

  12. The paradoxical evolution of runoff in the pastoral Sahel: analysis of the hydrological changes over the Agoufou watershed (Mali using the KINEROS-2 model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Gal

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available In recent decades, the Sahel has witnessed a paradoxical increase in surface water despite a general precipitation decline. This phenomenon, commonly referred to as the Sahelian paradox, is not completely understood yet. The role of cropland expansion due to the increasing food demand by a growing population has been often put forward to explain this situation for the cultivated Sahel. However, this hypothesis does not hold in pastoral areas where the same phenomenon is observed. Several other processes, such as the degradation of natural vegetation following the major droughts of the 1970s and the 1980s, the development of crusted topsoils, the intensification of the rainfall regime and the development of the drainage network, have been suggested to account for this situation. In this paper, a modeling approach is proposed to explore, quantify and rank different processes that could be at play in pastoral Sahel. The kinematic runoff and erosion model (KINEROS-2 is applied to the Agoufou watershed (245 km2, in the Gourma region in Mali, which underwent a significant increase of surface runoff during the last 60 years. Two periods are simulated, the past case (1960–1975 preceding the Sahelian drought and the present case (2000–2015. Surface hydrology and land cover characteristics for these two periods are derived by the analysis of aerial photographs, available in 1956, and high-resolution remote sensing images in 2011. The major changes identified are (1 a partial crusting of isolated dunes, (2 an increase of drainage network density, (3 a marked decrease in vegetation with the nonrecovery of tiger bush and vegetation growing on shallow sandy soils, and (4 important changes in soil properties with the apparition of impervious soils instead of shallow sandy soil. The KINEROS-2 model was parameterized to simulate these changes in combination or independently. The results obtained by this model display a significant increase in annual

  13. RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODELING IN THE TURKEY RIVER USING ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2015-01-15

    Jan 15, 2015 ... [1] used the Fuzzy logic method in rainfall-runoff modeling. They determined the runoff from the rainfall in Neckar River catchment, in southwest of Germany. In their research, a conceptual, modular and semi-distributed model was used which was named. Hydrological Byrans Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) ...

  14. Estimating runoff from ungauged catchments using regional modelling

    OpenAIRE

    Lobintceva, Ekaterina

    2014-01-01

    Establishing runoff series from ungauged catchment is a central challenge in hydrology. In Norway this is particularly evident in the design of small hydropower. The location of the power plant often is in small catchments with little little or no data available. The application of regional modeling for estimating runoff in ungauged catchments is one of the promising methods. The main goal of this study is to use ENKI hydrological model to calibrate free set of parameters which can be applied...

  15. EVALUATION OF RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODELS FOR MEDITERRANEAN SUBCATCHMENTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Cilek

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The development and the application of rainfall-runoff models have been a corner-stone of hydrological research for many decades. The amount of rainfall and its intensity and variability control the generation of runoff and the erosional processes operating at different scales. These interactions can be greatly variable in Mediterranean catchments with marked hydrological fluctuations. The aim of the study was to evaluate the performance of rainfall-runoff model, for rainfall-runoff simulation in a Mediterranean subcatchment. The Pan-European Soil Erosion Risk Assessment (PESERA, a simplified hydrological process-based approach, was used in this study to combine hydrological surface runoff factors. In total 128 input layers derived from data set includes; climate, topography, land use, crop type, planting date, and soil characteristics, are required to run the model. Initial ground cover was estimated from the Landsat ETM data provided by ESA. This hydrological model was evaluated in terms of their performance in Goksu River Watershed, Turkey. It is located at the Central Eastern Mediterranean Basin of Turkey. The area is approximately 2000 km2. The landscape is dominated by bare ground, agricultural and forests. The average annual rainfall is 636.4mm. This study has a significant importance to evaluate different model performances in a complex Mediterranean basin. The results provided comprehensive insight including advantages and limitations of modelling approaches in the Mediterranean environment.

  16. Performance of two predictive uncertainty estimation approaches for conceptual Rainfall-Runoff Model: Bayesian Joint Inference and Hydrologic Uncertainty Post-processing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hernández-López, Mario R.; Romero-Cuéllar, Jonathan; Camilo Múnera-Estrada, Juan; Coccia, Gabriele; Francés, Félix

    2017-04-01

    It is noticeably important to emphasize the role of uncertainty particularly when the model forecasts are used to support decision-making and water management. This research compares two approaches for the evaluation of the predictive uncertainty in hydrological modeling. First approach is the Bayesian Joint Inference of hydrological and error models. Second approach is carried out through the Model Conditional Processor using the Truncated Normal Distribution in the transformed space. This comparison is focused on the predictive distribution reliability. The case study is applied to two basins included in the Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX). These two basins, which have different hydrological complexity, are the French Broad River (North Carolina) and the Guadalupe River (Texas). The results indicate that generally, both approaches are able to provide similar predictive performances. However, the differences between them can arise in basins with complex hydrology (e.g. ephemeral basins). This is because obtained results with Bayesian Joint Inference are strongly dependent on the suitability of the hypothesized error model. Similarly, the results in the case of the Model Conditional Processor are mainly influenced by the selected model of tails or even by the selected full probability distribution model of the data in the real space, and by the definition of the Truncated Normal Distribution in the transformed space. In summary, the different hypotheses that the modeler choose on each of the two approaches are the main cause of the different results. This research also explores a proper combination of both methodologies which could be useful to achieve less biased hydrological parameter estimation. For this approach, firstly the predictive distribution is obtained through the Model Conditional Processor. Secondly, this predictive distribution is used to derive the corresponding additive error model which is employed for the hydrological parameter

  17. How runoff begins (and ends): characterizing hydrologic response at the catchment scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mirus, Benjamin B.; Loague, Keith

    2013-01-01

    Improved understanding of the complex dynamics associated with spatially and temporally variable runoff response is needed to better understand the hydrology component of interdisciplinary problems. The objective of this study was to quantitatively characterize the environmental controls on runoff generation for the range of different streamflow-generation mechanisms illustrated in the classic Dunne diagram. The comprehensive physics-based model of coupled surface-subsurface flow, InHM, is employed in a heuristic mode. InHM has been employed previously to successfully simulate the observed hydrologic response at four diverse, well-characterized catchments, which provides the foundation for this study. The C3 and CB catchments are located within steep, forested terrain; the TW and R5 catchments are located in gently sloping rangeland. The InHM boundary-value problems for these four catchments provide the corner-stones for alternative simulation scenarios designed to address the question of how runoff begins (and ends). Simulated rainfall-runoff events are used to systematically explore the impact of soil-hydraulic properties and rainfall characteristics. This approach facilitates quantitative analysis of both integrated and distributed hydrologic responses at high-spatial and temporal resolution over the wide range of environmental conditions represented by the four catchments. The results from 140 unique simulation scenarios illustrate how rainfall intensity/depth, subsurface permeability contrasts, characteristic curve shapes, and topography provide important controls on the hydrologic-response dynamics. The processes by which runoff begins (and ends) are shown, in large part, to be defined by the relative rates of rainfall, infiltration, lateral flow convergence, and storage dynamics within the variably saturated soil layers.

  18. Regional Analysis of Conceptual Rainfall Runoff Models for Runoff ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Regional Analysis of Conceptual Rainfall Runoff Models for Runoff Simulation In Ungauged Catchments: The Case Of Upper Ewaso Ngiro Drainage Basin in Kenya. ... This involved, in the case of suction at the wetting front and hydraulic conductivity, deriving the parameter values from soil texture. The remaining conceptual ...

  19. Influence of spatial variations of microtopography and infiltration on surface runoff and field scale hydrological connectivity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Appels, W.M.; Bogaart, P.W.; Zee, van der S.E.A.T.M.

    2011-01-01

    Surface runoff on agricultural fields arises when rainfall exceeds infiltration. Excess water ponding in and flowing through local microtopography increases the hydrological connectivity of fields. In turn, an increased level of hydrological connectivity leads to a higher surface runoff flux at the

  20. Real time adjustment of slow changing flow components in distributed urban runoff models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Borup, Morten; Grum, M.; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen

    2011-01-01

    In many urban runoff systems infiltrating water contributes with a substantial part of the total inflow and therefore most urban runoff modelling packages include hydrological models for simulating the infiltrating inflow. This paper presents a method for deterministic updating of the hydrological...

  1. WegenerNet 1km-scale sub-daily rainfall data and their application: a hydrological modeling study on the sensitivity of small-catchment runoff to spatial rainfall variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oh, Sungmin; Hohmann, Clara; Foelsche, Ulrich; Fuchsberger, Jürgen; Rieger, Wolfgang; Kirchengast, Gottfried

    2017-04-01

    WegenerNet Feldbach region (WEGN), a pioneering experiment for weather and climate observations, has recently completed its first 10-year precipitation measurement cycle. The WEGN has measured precipitation, temperature, humidity, and other parameters since the beginning of 2007, supporting local-level monitoring and modeling studies, over an area of about 20 km x 15 km centered near the City of Feldbach (46.93 ˚ N, 15.90 ˚ E) in the Alpine forelands of southeast Austria. All the 151 stations in the network are now equipped with high-quality Meteoservis sensors as of August 2016, following an equipment with Friedrichs sensors at most stations before, and continue to provide high-resolution (2 km2/5-min) gauge based precipitation measurements for interested users in hydro-meteorological communities. Here we will present overall characteristics of the WEGN, with a focus on sub-daily precipitation measurements, from the data processing (data quality control, gridded data products generation, etc.) to data applications (e.g., ground validation of satellite estimates). The latter includes our recent study on the propagation of uncertainty from rainfall to runoff. The study assesses responses of small-catchment runoff to spatial rainfall variability in the WEGN region over the Raab valley, using a physics-based distributed hydrological model; Water Flow and Balance Simulation Model (WaSiM), developed at ETH Zurich (Schulla, ETH Zurich, 1997). Given that uncertainty due to resolution of rainfall measurements is believed to be a significant source of error in hydrologic modeling especially for convective rainfall that dominates in the region during summer, the high-resolution of WEGN data furnishes a great opportunity to analyze effects of rainfall events on the runoff at different spatial resolutions. Furthermore, the assessment can be conducted not only for the lower Raab catchment (area of about 500 km2) but also for its sub-catchments (areas of about 30-70 km2

  2. Fuzzy committees of specialised rainfall-runoff models : Further enhancements

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kayastha, N.; Ye, J.; Fenicia, F.; Solomatine, D.P.

    2013-01-01

    Often a single hydrological model cannot capture the details of a complex rainfall-runoff relationship, and a possibility here is building specialised models to be responsible for a particular aspect of this relationship and combining them forming a committee model. This study extends earlier work

  3. Modelling the effect of land use change on hydrological model ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Conceptual rainfall–runoff models have become a basic tool for evaluating effects of land use/cover changes on the hydrologic processes in small-scale as well as large watersheds. The runoff-producing mechanism is influenced by land use/cover changes. In this study, we analysed the effect of land use change on ...

  4. Simulation of green roof runoff under different substrate depths and vegetation covers by coupling a simple conceptual and a physically based hydrological model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soulis, Konstantinos X; Valiantzas, John D; Ntoulas, Nikolaos; Kargas, George; Nektarios, Panayiotis A

    2017-09-15

    In spite of the well-known green roof benefits, their widespread adoption in the management practices of urban drainage systems requires the use of adequate analytical and modelling tools. In the current study, green roof runoff modeling was accomplished by developing, testing, and jointly using a simple conceptual model and a physically based numerical simulation model utilizing HYDRUS-1D software. The use of such an approach combines the advantages of the conceptual model, namely simplicity, low computational requirements, and ability to be easily integrated in decision support tools with the capacity of the physically based simulation model to be easily transferred in conditions and locations other than those used for calibrating and validating it. The proposed approach was evaluated with an experimental dataset that included various green roof covers (either succulent plants - Sedum sediforme, or xerophytic plants - Origanum onites, or bare substrate without any vegetation) and two substrate depths (either 8 cm or 16 cm). Both the physically based and the conceptual models matched very closely the observed hydrographs. In general, the conceptual model performed better than the physically based simulation model but the overall performance of both models was sufficient in most cases as it is revealed by the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency index which was generally greater than 0.70. Finally, it was showcased how a physically based and a simple conceptual model can be jointly used to allow the use of the simple conceptual model for a wider set of conditions than the available experimental data and in order to support green roof design. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Modelling the runoff regime of the glacierised upper Aconcagua River Basin using a distributed hydrological model: a multi-criteria approach for simulations of glacier and snow melt contributions to streamflow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ragettli, Silvan; Pellicciotti, Francesca; Molnar, Darcy; Rimkus, Stefan; Helbing, Jakob; Escobar, Fernando; Burlando, Paolo

    2010-05-01

    In the Central Andes of Chile the interactions between snow, glaciers and water resources are governed by a distinct climatological forcing. Summers are dry and stable, with precipitation close to zero, low relative humidity and intense solar radiation. During the summer months, water originates almost exclusively from snow and ice melt. Evidence of glaciers retreat and changes in the seasonal snow cover suggests that climate change might have an impact on the water resources in the area. We use the physically-based, spatially-distributed hydrological model TOPKAPI to study the processes governing the exchange between the climate, snow and ice in the upper Aconcagua River Basin. The model incorporates the melting of snow and ice based on a simplified energy-balance approach (ETI model) and the routing of melt water through the glacial system. The model has numerous empirical parameters used in the computation of the single components of the hydrological cycle, the determination of which might lead to problems of equifinality. To address this issue we set up a rigorous calibration procedure that allows calibration of the main model parameters in three different steps by separating parameters governing distinct processes. We evaluate the parameters' transferability in time and investigate the differences in model parameters and performance that result from applying the model at different spatial scales. The model ability to simulate the relevant processes is tested against a data set of meteorological data, measurements of surface ablation and glacier runoff at the snout of the Juncal Norte Glacier during two ablation seasons. Modelled snow height is compared to snow maps derived from terrestrial photos. Results show that the magnitude of snow and icemelt rates on the glacier tongue is correctly reproduced, but simulations at higher elevation have a larger uncertainty. Crucial factors affecting model performance are the model ability to simulate the redistribution of

  6. Rangeland Hydrology and Erosion Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nearing, Mark; Pierson, Fred; Hernandez, Mariano; Al-Hamdan, Osama; Weltz, Mark; Spaeth, Ken; Wei, Haiyan; Stone, Jeff

    2013-04-01

    Soil loss rates on rangelands are considered one of the few quantitative indicators for assessing rangeland health and conservation practice effectiveness. An erosion model to predict soil loss specific for rangeland applications has been needed for many years. Most erosion models were developed from croplands where the hydrologic and erosion processes are different, largely due to much higher levels of heterogeneity in soil and plant properties at the plot scale and the consolidated nature of the soils. The Rangeland Hydrology and Erosion Model (RHEM) was designed to fill that need. RHEM is an event-based model that estimates runoff, erosion, and sediment delivery rates and volumes at the spatial scale of the hillslope and the temporal scale of a single rainfall event. It represents erosion processes under normal and fire-impacted rangeland conditions, it adopts a new splash erosion and thin sheet-flow transport equation developed from rangeland data, and it links the model hydrologic and erosion parameters with rangeland plant communities by providing a new system of parameter estimation equations based on 204 plots at 49 rangeland sites distributed across 15 western U.S. states. Recent work on the model is focused on representing intra-storm dynamics, using stream-power as the driver for detachment by flow, and deriving parameters for after-fire conditions.

  7. Hydrological modelling in forested systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    This chapter provides a brief overview of forest hydrology modelling approaches for answering important global research and management questions. Many hundreds of hydrological models have been applied globally across multiple decades to represent and predict forest hydrological p...

  8. On the role of model structure in hydrological modeling : Understanding models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gharari, S.

    2016-01-01

    Modeling is an essential part of the science of hydrology. Models enable us to formulate what we know and perceive from the real world into a neat package. Rainfall-runoff models are abstract simplifications of how a catchment works. Within the research field of scientific rainfall-runoff modeling,

  9. Sensitivity-Based Modeling of Evaluating Surface Runoff and Sediment Load using Digital and Analog Mechanisms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olotu Yahaya

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Analyses of runoff- sediment measurement and evaluation using automated and convectional runoff-meters was carried out at Meteorological and Hydrological Station of Auchi Polytechnic, Auchi using two runoff plots (ABCDa and EFGHm of area 2m 2 each, depth 0.26 m and driven into the soil to the depth of 0.13m. Runoff depths and intensities were measured from each of the positioned runoff plot. Automated runoff-meter has a measuring accuracy of ±0.001l/±0.025 mm and rainfall depth-intensity was measured using tipping-bucket rainguage during the period of 14-month of experimentation. Minimum and maximum rainfall depths of 1.2 and 190.3 mm correspond to measured runoff depths (MRo of 0.0 mm for both measurement approaches and 60.4 mm and 48.9 mm respectively. Automated runoffmeter provides precise, accurate and instantaneous result over the convectional measurement of surface runoff. Runoff measuring accuracy for automated runoff-meter from the plot (ABCDa produces R 2 = 0.99; while R 2 = 0.96 for manual evaluation in plot (EFGHm. WEPP and SWAT models were used to simulate the obtained hydrological variables from the applied measurement mechanisms. The outputs of sensitivity simulation analysis indicate that data from automated measuring systems gives a better modelling index and such could be used for running robust runoff-sediment predictive modelling technique under different reservoir sedimentation and water management scenarios.

  10. Hydrological land surface modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ridler, Marc-Etienne Francois

    Recent advances in integrated hydrological and soil-vegetation-atmosphere transfer (SVAT) modelling have led to improved water resource management practices, greater crop production, and better flood forecasting systems. However, uncertainty is inherent in all numerical models ultimately leading...... and disaster management. The objective of this study is to develop and investigate methods to reduce hydrological model uncertainty by using supplementary data sources. The data is used either for model calibration or for model updating using data assimilation. Satellite estimates of soil moisture and surface...... hydrological and tested by assimilating synthetic hydraulic head observations in a catchment in Denmark. Assimilation led to a substantial reduction of model prediction error, and better model forecasts. Also, a new assimilation scheme is developed to downscale and bias-correct coarse satellite derived soil...

  11. Exploring uncertainty and model predictive performance concepts via a modular snowmelt-runoff modeling framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tyler Jon Smith; Lucy Amanda. Marshall

    2010-01-01

    Model selection is an extremely important aspect of many hydrologic modeling studies because of the complexity, variability, and uncertainty that surrounds the current understanding of watershed-scale systems. However, development and implementation of a complete precipitation-runoff modeling framework, from model selection to calibration and uncertainty analysis, are...

  12. Hydrological land surface modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ridler, Marc-Etienne Francois

    and disaster management. The objective of this study is to develop and investigate methods to reduce hydrological model uncertainty by using supplementary data sources. The data is used either for model calibration or for model updating using data assimilation. Satellite estimates of soil moisture and surface...

  13. Supporting data for “A glacier runoff extension to the precipitation runoff modeling system”

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Beusekom, Ashley; Viger, Roland

    2017-01-01

    This product is an archive of the modeling artifacts used to produce a journal paper (Van Beusekom and Viger, 2016). The abstract for that paper follows. A module to simulate glacier runoff, PRMSglacier, was added to PRMS (Precipitation Runoff Modeling System), a distributed-parameter, physical-process hydrological simulation code. The extension does not require extensive on-glacier measurements or computational expense but still relies on physical principles over empirical relations as much as is feasible while maintaining model usability. PRMSglacier is validated on two basins in Alaska, Wolverine, and Gulkana Glacier basin, which have been studied since 1966 and have a substantial amount of data with which to test model performance over a long period of time covering a wide range of climatic and hydrologic conditions. When error in field measurements is considered, the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies of streamflow are 0.87 and 0.86, the absolute bias fractions of the winter mass balance simulations are 0.10 and 0.08, and the absolute bias fractions of the summer mass balances are 0.01 and 0.03, all computed over 42 years for the Wolverine and Gulkana Glacier basins, respectively. Without taking into account measurement error, the values are still within the range achieved by the more computationally expensive codes tested over shorter time periods.

  14. Modelo hidrológico para estimativa do escoamento superficial em áreas agrícolas A hydrologic model to estimate the surface runoff in agricultural lands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernando F. Pruski

    2001-05-01

    Full Text Available Desenvolveu-se um modelo hidrológico para estimar o escoamento superficial em áreas sob condições agrícolas. O modelo é baseado na análise dos diversos processos associados ao balanço hídrico e nele se usa a equação de intensidade, duração e freqüência da precipitação para estimar a intensidade de precipitação e a equação de Green-Ampt modificada por Mein-Larson, para estimar a velocidade de infiltração permitindo, também, a consideração da interceptação pela cobertura vegetal e do armazenamento de água sobre a superfície do solo por meio de diferentes metodologias. O escoamento superficial começa após a capacidade de armazenamento sobre a superfície do solo ter sido preenchida, e é calculado subtraindo-se a velocidade de infiltração da água no solo da intensidade de precipitação durante o intervalo de tempo em que a intensidade da chuva é maior que a velocidade de infiltração. Resultados de um experimento de validação do modelo e duas aplicações práticas são apresentados, sendo que os resultados obtidos com o modelo foram muito próximos daqueles observados no campo.A hydrologic model was developed to estimate the surface runoff under agricultural conditions. The model is process-based and uses the intensity-duration-frequency equation to calculate the rainfall intensity and the Green-Ampt-Mein-Larson equation to estimate the infiltration rate. The runoff begins after the maximum surface storage on the soil surface has been reached. It is calculated by subtracting the infiltration rate from the rainfall intensity during the interval of time that the rainfall intensity is greater than the infiltration rate. The model also allows the calculation of the deep percolation and the actual soil-water content. Results from a validation experiment and two practical applications of the model are also presented. The results obtained with the model were approximately the same as those observed in the field.

  15. Modeling Ballasted Tracks for Runoff Coefficient C

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-08-01

    In this study, the Regional Transportation District (RTD)s light rail tracks were modeled to determine the Rational Method : runoff coefficient, C, values corresponding to ballasted tracks. To accomplish this, a laboratory study utilizing a : rain...

  16. Regionalization of runoff models derived by genetic programming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heřmanovský, M.; Havlíček, V.; Hanel, M.; Pech, P.

    2017-04-01

    The aim of this study is to assess the potential of hydrological models derived by genetic programming (GP) to estimate runoff at ungauged catchments by regionalization. A set of 176 catchments from the MOPEX (Model Parameter Estimation Experiment) project was used for our analysis. Runoff models for each catchment were derived by genetic programming (hereafter GP models). A comparison of efficiency was made between GP models and three conceptual models (SAC-SMA, BTOPMC, GR4J). The efficiency of the GP models was in general comparable with that of the SAC-SMA and BTOPMC models but slightly lower (up to 10% for calibration and 15% in validation) than for the GR4J model. The relationship between the efficiency of the GP models and catchment descriptors (CDs) was investigated. From 13 available CDs the aridity index and mean catchment elevation explained most of the variation in the efficiency of the GP models. The runoff for each catchment was then estimated considering GP models from single or multiple physically similar catchments (donors). Better results were obtained with multiple donor catchments. Increasing the number of CDs used for quantification of physical similarity improves the efficiency of the GP models in runoff simulation. The best regionalization results were obtained with 6 CDs together with 6 donors. Our results show that transfer of the GP models is possible and leads to satisfactory results when applied at physically similar catchments. The GP models can be therefore used as an alternative for runoff modelling at ungauged catchments if similar gauged catchments can be identified and successfully simulated.

  17. Inter-event variability in urban stormwater runoff response associated with hydrologic connectivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hondula, K. L.

    2015-12-01

    Urbanization alters the magnitude and composition of hydrologic and biogeochemical fluxes from watersheds, with subsequent deleterious consequences for receiving waters. Projected changes in storm characteristics such as rainfall intensity and event size are predicted to amplify these impacts and render current regulations inadequate for protecting surface water quality. As stormwater management practices (BMPs) are increasingly being relied upon to reduce excess nutrient pollution in runoff from residential development, empirical investigation of their performance across a range of conditions is warranted. Despite substantial investment in urban and suburban BMPs, significant knowledge gaps exist in understanding how landscape structure and precipitation event characteristics influence the amount of stormwater runoff and associated nutrient loads from these complex catchments. Increasing infiltration of stormwater before it enters the sewer network (source control) is hypothesized to better mimic natural hydrologic and biogeochemical fluxes compared to more centralized BMPs at sewer outlets such as wet and dry ponds. Rainfall and runoff quality and quantity were monitored in four small (1-5 ha) residential catchments in Maryland to test the efficacy of infiltration-based stormwater management practices in comparison to end-of-pipe BMPs. Results indicated that reduced hydrologic connectivity associated with infiltration-based practices affected the relationship between the magnitude of rainfall events and water yield , but only for small precipitation events: compared to end-of-pipe BMPs, source control was associated with both lower runoff ratios and lower nutrient export per area for a given rainfall event size. We found variability in stormwater runoff responses (water yield, quality, and nutrient loads) was associated with precipitation event size, antecedent rainfall, and hydrologic connectivity as quantified by a modified directional connectivity index

  18. Modelling of Highway Runoff Quantity and Quality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ashraf El-Shahat Elsayed

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available The stormwater Management Model (SWMM is a well-known stormwater runoff-simulation model. It is a deterministic, spatially distributed model for calculation of runoff quantity and quality. The aim of this study was to predict highway runoff characteristics using data from different highway catchments. The SWMM was used in the simulation process and the predicted data was verified using monitoring data collected from Prague-Plzeň highway for both total suspended solids and organic compounds. The analyzed data indicated that the simulated TSS, BOD5 concentrations lie within the range of the measured data and both data sets are considered highly polluted with respect to the specification limits. The analyzed data also show that the first flush of runoff is the most polluted, and is responsible for contamination of retention and/or received waters.

  19. netherland hydrological modeling instrument

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoogewoud, J. C.; de Lange, W. J.; Veldhuizen, A.; Prinsen, G.

    2012-04-01

    Netherlands Hydrological Modeling Instrument A decision support system for water basin management. J.C. Hoogewoud , W.J. de Lange ,A. Veldhuizen , G. Prinsen , The Netherlands Hydrological modeling Instrument (NHI) is the center point of a framework of models, to coherently model the hydrological system and the multitude of functions it supports. Dutch hydrological institutes Deltares, Alterra, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, RWS Waterdienst, STOWA and Vewin are cooperating in enhancing the NHI for adequate decision support. The instrument is used by three different ministries involved in national water policy matters, for instance the WFD, drought management, manure policy and climate change issues. The basis of the modeling instrument is a state-of-the-art on-line coupling of the groundwater system (MODFLOW), the unsaturated zone (metaSWAP) and the surface water system (MOZART-DM). It brings together hydro(geo)logical processes from the column to the basin scale, ranging from 250x250m plots to the river Rhine and includes salt water flow. The NHI is validated with an eight year run (1998-2006) with dry and wet periods. For this run different parts of the hydrology have been compared with measurements. For instance, water demands in dry periods (e.g. for irrigation), discharges at outlets, groundwater levels and evaporation. A validation alone is not enough to get support from stakeholders. Involvement from stakeholders in the modeling process is needed. There fore to gain sufficient support and trust in the instrument on different (policy) levels a couple of actions have been taken: 1. a transparent evaluation of modeling-results has been set up 2. an extensive program is running to cooperate with regional waterboards and suppliers of drinking water in improving the NHI 3. sharing (hydrological) data via newly setup Modeling Database for local and national models 4. Enhancing the NHI with "local" information. The NHI is and has been used for many

  20. gis-based hydrological model based hydrological model upstream

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    eobe

    er river catchments in Nigeria graphical data [2]. A spatial hydrology which simulates the water flow and pecified region of the earth using GIS. In view of this, the use of modeling with GIS provides the platform to processes tailored towards hydrologic dely applied hydrological models for in recent time is the Soil and Water.

  1. An urban runoff model designed to inform stormwater management decisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beck, Nicole G; Conley, Gary; Kanner, Lisa; Mathias, Margaret

    2017-05-15

    We present an urban runoff model designed for stormwater managers to quantify runoff reduction benefits of mitigation actions that has lower input data and user expertise requirements than most commonly used models. The stormwater tool to estimate load reductions (TELR) employs a semi-distributed approach, where landscape characteristics and process representation are spatially-lumped within urban catchments on the order of 100 acres (40 ha). Hydrologic computations use a set of metrics that describe a 30-year rainfall distribution, combined with well-tested algorithms for rainfall-runoff transformation and routing to generate average annual runoff estimates for each catchment. User inputs include the locations and specifications for a range of structural best management practice (BMP) types. The model was tested in a set of urban catchments within the Lake Tahoe Basin of California, USA, where modeled annual flows matched that of the observed flows within 18% relative error for 5 of the 6 catchments and had good regional performance for a suite of performance metrics. Comparisons with continuous simulation models showed an average of 3% difference from TELR predicted runoff for a range of hypothetical urban catchments. The model usually identified the dominant BMP outflow components within 5% relative error of event-based measured flow data and simulated the correct proportionality between outflow components. TELR has been implemented as a web-based platform for use by municipal stormwater managers to inform prioritization, report program benefits and meet regulatory reporting requirements (www.swtelr.com). Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  2. Mid- and long-term runoff predictions by an improved phase-space reconstruction model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong, Mei; Wang, Dong; Wang, Yuankun; Zeng, Xiankui; Ge, Shanshan; Yan, Hengqian; Singh, Vijay P

    2016-07-01

    In recent years, the phase-space reconstruction method has usually been used for mid- and long-term runoff predictions. However, the traditional phase-space reconstruction method is still needs to be improved. Using the genetic algorithm to improve the phase-space reconstruction method, a new nonlinear model of monthly runoff is constructed. The new model does not rely heavily on embedding dimensions. Recognizing that the rainfall-runoff process is complex, affected by a number of factors, more variables (e.g. temperature and rainfall) are incorporated in the model. In order to detect the possible presence of chaos in the runoff dynamics, chaotic characteristics of the model are also analyzed, which shows the model can represent the nonlinear and chaotic characteristics of the runoff. The model is tested for its forecasting performance in four types of experiments using data from six hydrological stations on the Yellow River and the Yangtze River. Results show that the medium-and long-term runoff is satisfactorily forecasted at the hydrological stations. Not only is the forecasting trend accurate, but also the mean absolute percentage error is no more than 15%. Moreover, the forecast results of wet years and dry years are both good, which means that the improved model can overcome the traditional ''wet years and dry years predictability barrier,'' to some extent. The model forecasts for different regions are all good, showing the universality of the approach. Compared with selected conceptual and empirical methods, the model exhibits greater reliability and stability in the long-term runoff prediction. Our study provides a new thinking for research on the association between the monthly runoff and other hydrological factors, and also provides a new method for the prediction of the monthly runoff. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Evaluation of Synthetic Outlet Runoff Assessment Models | Adib ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Quantitative understanding and prediction of the processes of runoff generation and its transmission to the outlet represent one of the most basic and challenging areas of hydrology. Traditional techniques for design flood estimation use historical rainfall-runoff data for unit hydrograph (UH) derivation. Such techniques have ...

  4. From local hydrological process analysis to regional hydrological model application in Benin: Concept, results and perspectives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bormann, H.; Faß, T.; Giertz, S.; Junge, B.; Diekkrüger, B.; Reichert, B.; Skowronek, A.

    This paper presents the concept, first results and perspectives of the hydrological sub-project of the IMPETUS-Benin project which is part of the GLOWA program funded by the German ministry of education and research. In addition to the research concept, first results on field hydrology, pedology, hydrogeology and hydrological modelling are presented, focusing on the understanding of the actual hydrological processes. For analysing the processes a 30 km 2 catchment acting as a super test site was chosen which is assumed to be representative for the entire catchment of about 15,000 km 2. First results of the field investigations show that infiltration, runoff generation and soil erosion strongly depend on land cover and land use which again influence the soil properties significantly. A conceptual hydrogeological model has been developed summarising the process knowledge on runoff generation and subsurface hydrological processes. This concept model shows a dominance of fast runoff components (surface runoff and interflow), a groundwater recharge along preferential flow paths, temporary interaction between surface and groundwater and separate groundwater systems on different scales (shallow, temporary groundwater on local scale and permanent, deep groundwater on regional scale). The findings of intensive measurement campaigns on soil hydrology, groundwater dynamics and soil erosion have been integrated into different, scale-dependent hydrological modelling concepts applied at different scales in the target region (upper Ouémé catchment in Benin, about 15,000 km 2). The models have been applied and successfully validated. They will be used for integrated scenario analyses in the forthcoming project phase to assess the impacts of global change on the regional water cycle and on typical problem complexes such as food security in West African countries.

  5. Dynamic Modeling of Surface Runoff and Storm Surge during Hurricane and Tropical Storm Events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Walter F. Silva-Araya

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Hurricane events combine ocean storm surge penetration with inland runoff flooding. This article presents a new methodology to determine coastal flood levels caused by the combination of storm surge and surface runoff. The proposed approach couples the Simulating Waves Nearshore model and the Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC model with the Gridded Surface Subsurface Hydrologic Analysis (GSSHA two-dimensional hydrologic model. Radar precipitation data in a 2D hydrologic model with a circulation model allows simulation of time and spatially varied conditions. The method was applied to study flooding scenarios occurring during the passage of Hurricane Georges (1998 on the east coast of Puerto Rico. The combination of storm surge and surface runoff produced a critical scenario, in terms of flood depth, at this location. The paper describes the data collection process, circulation and hydrologic models, their assemblage and simulation scenarios. Results show that peak flow from inland runoff and peak flow due to storm surge did not coincide in the coastal zone; however, the interaction of both discharges causes an aggravated hazardous condition by increasing flood levels beyond those obtained with storm surge penetration only. Linking of storm surge and hydrologic models are necessary when storm surge conditions occur simultaneously with high precipitation over steep and small coastal watersheds.

  6. PATHS groundwater hydrologic model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nelson, R.W.; Schur, J.A.

    1980-04-01

    A preliminary evaluation capability for two-dimensional groundwater pollution problems was developed as part of the Transport Modeling Task for the Waste Isolation Safety Assessment Program (WISAP). Our approach was to use the data limitations as a guide in setting the level of modeling detail. PATHS Groundwater Hydrologic Model is the first level (simplest) idealized hybrid analytical/numerical model for two-dimensional, saturated groundwater flow and single component transport; homogeneous geology. This document consists of the description of the PATHS groundwater hydrologic model. The preliminary evaluation capability prepared for WISAP, including the enhancements that were made because of the authors' experience using the earlier capability is described. Appendixes A through D supplement the report as follows: complete derivations of the background equations are provided in Appendix A. Appendix B is a comprehensive set of instructions for users of PATHS. It is written for users who have little or no experience with computers. Appendix C is for the programmer. It contains information on how input parameters are passed between programs in the system. It also contains program listings and test case listing. Appendix D is a definition of terms.

  7. Fuzzy committees of specialized rainfall-runoff models : Further enhancements and tests

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kayastha, N.; Ye, J.; Fenicia, F.; Kuzmin, V.; Solomatine, D.P.

    2013-01-01

    Often a single hydrological model cannot capture the details of a complex rainfall–runoff relationship, and a possibility here is building specialized models to be responsible for a particular aspect of this relationship and combining them to form a committee model. This study extends earlier work

  8. Assessing the detail needed to capture rainfall-runoff dynamics with physics-based hydrologic response simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mirus, Benjamin B.; Ebel, Brian A.; Heppner, Christopher S.; Loague, Keith

    2011-03-01

    Concept development simulation with distributed, physics-based models provides a quantitative approach for investigating runoff generation processes across environmental conditions. Disparities within data sets employed to design and parameterize boundary value problems used in heuristic simulation inevitably introduce various levels of bias. The objective was to evaluate the impact of boundary value problem complexity on process representation for different runoff generation mechanisms. The comprehensive physics-based hydrologic response model InHM has been employed to generate base case simulations for four well-characterized catchments. The C3 and CB catchments are located within steep, forested environments dominated by subsurface stormflow; the TW and R5 catchments are located in gently sloping rangeland environments dominated by Dunne and Horton overland flows. Observational details are well captured within all four of the base case simulations, but the characterization of soil depth, permeability, rainfall intensity, and evapotranspiration differs for each. These differences are investigated through the conversion of each base case into a reduced case scenario, all sharing the same level of complexity. Evaluation of how individual boundary value problem characteristics impact simulated runoff generation processes is facilitated by quantitative analysis of integrated and distributed responses at high spatial and temporal resolution. Generally, the base case reduction causes moderate changes in discharge and runoff patterns, with the dominant process remaining unchanged. Moderate differences between the base and reduced cases highlight the importance of detailed field observations for parameterizing and evaluating physics-based models. Overall, similarities between the base and reduced cases indicate that the simpler boundary value problems may be useful for concept development simulation to investigate fundamental controls on the spectrum of runoff generation

  9. An analogue conceptual rainfall-runoff model for educational purposes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herrnegger, Mathew; Riedl, Michael; Schulz, Karsten

    2016-04-01

    Conceptual rainfall-runoff models, in which runoff processes are modelled with a series of connected linear and non-linear reservoirs, remain widely applied tools in science and practice. Additionally, the concept is appreciated in teaching due to its somewhat simplicity in explaining and exploring hydrological processes of catchments. However, when a series of reservoirs are used, the model system becomes highly parametrized and complex and the traceability of the model results becomes more difficult to explain to an audience not accustomed to numerical modelling. Since normally the simulations are performed with a not visible digital code, the results are also not easily comprehensible. This contribution therefore presents a liquid analogue model, in which a conceptual rainfall-runoff model is reproduced by a physical model. This consists of different acrylic glass containers representing different storage components within a catchment, e.g. soil water or groundwater storage. The containers are equipped and connected with pipes, in which water movement represents different flow processes, e.g. surface runoff, percolation or base flow. Water from a storage container is pumped to the upper part of the model and represents effective rainfall input. The water then flows by gravity through the different pipes and storages. Valves are used for controlling the flows within the analogue model, comparable to the parameterization procedure in numerical models. Additionally, an inexpensive microcontroller-based board and sensors are used to measure storage water levels, with online visualization of the states as time series data, building a bridge between the analogue and digital world. The ability to physically witness the different flows and water levels in the storages makes the analogue model attractive to the audience. Hands-on experiments can be performed with students, in which different scenarios or catchment types can be simulated, not only with the analogue but

  10. Modelling of green roof hydrological performance for urban drainage applications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Locatelli, Luca; Mark, Ole; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen

    2014-01-01

    , the model was used to evaluate the variation of the average annual runoff from green roofs as a function of the total available storage and vegetation type. The results show that even a few millimeters of storage can reduce the mean annual runoff by up to 20% when compared to a traditional roof......Green roofs are being widely implemented for stormwater management and their impact on the urban hydrological cycle can be evaluated by incorporating them into urban drainage models. This paper presents a model of green roof long term and single event hydrological performance. The model includes...... surface and subsurface storage components representing the overall retention capacity of the green roof which is continuously re-established by evapotranspiration. The runoff from the model is described through a non-linear reservoir approach. The model was calibrated and validated using measurement data...

  11. gis-based hydrological model based hydrological model upstream

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    eobe

    Hydrological. Hydrological modeling tools have been increasingl modeling tools have been increasingl watershed watershed level. The application of these tools hav. The application of these tools hav sensing and G sensing and Geographical Information System (GIS) eographical Information System (GIS) based models ...

  12. A note on estimating urban roof runoff with a forest evaporation model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gash, J.H.C.; Rosier, P.T.W.; Ragab, R.

    2008-01-01

    A model developed for estimating the evaporation of rainfall intercepted by forest canopies is applied to estimate measurements of the average runoff from the roofs of six houses made in a previous study of hydrological processes in an urban environment. The model is applied using values of the mean

  13. Generation of Natural Runoff Monthly Series at Ungauged Sites Using a Regional Regressive Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dario Pumo

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Many hydrologic applications require reliable estimates of runoff in river basins to face the widespread lack of data, both in time and in space. A regional method for the reconstruction of monthly runoff series is here developed and applied to Sicily (Italy. A simple modeling structure is adopted, consisting of a regression-based rainfall–runoff model with four model parameters, calibrated through a two-step procedure. Monthly runoff estimates are based on precipitation, temperature, and exploiting the autocorrelation with runoff at the previous month. Model parameters are assessed by specific regional equations as a function of easily measurable physical and climate basin descriptors. The first calibration step is aimed at the identification of a set of parameters optimizing model performances at the level of single basin. Such “optimal” sets are used at the second step, part of a regional regression analysis, to establish the regional equations for model parameters assessment as a function of basin attributes. All the gauged watersheds across the region have been analyzed, selecting 53 basins for model calibration and using the other six basins exclusively for validation. Performances, quantitatively evaluated by different statistical indexes, demonstrate relevant model ability in reproducing the observed hydrological time-series at both the monthly and coarser time resolutions. The methodology, which is easily transferable to other arid and semi-arid areas, provides a reliable tool for filling/reconstructing runoff time series at any gauged or ungauged basin of a region.

  14. Ungauged runoff simulation in Upper Manyame Catchment, Zimbabwe: Application of the HEC-HMS model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gumindoga, Webster; Rwasoka, Donald T.; Nhapi, Innocent; Dube, Timothy

    2017-08-01

    The Hydrologic Engineering Center Hydrologic Modelling System (HEC-HMS) model was applied to simulate runoff in the ten gauged and ungauged Upper Manyame subcatchments in Zimbabwe. Remote sensing and Geographic Information System techniques were used to determine the geometric and hydrologic parameters required for estimating model parameters. The Snyder Unit Hydrograph method was used for ungauged subcatchment simulations based on parameter transfer from gauged subcatchments. The Marimba and Mukuvisi subcatchments were considered as the gauged subcatchments based on data completeness for the simulation period (2004-2010). Before extrapolating the calibrated model setup to eight ungauged subcatchments, the feasibility of model parameter transferability was tested, using the proxy - catchment approach and evaluated using the Nash Sutcliffe (NSE) and Relative Volume Error (RVE) criterion. Results showed that the model successfully predicted gauged catchment runoff and peakflows for the calibration (Marimba NSE = 68%, RVE = 5.8%; Mukuvisi NSE = 64%, RVE = -8.9%) and validation (Marimba NSE = 61%, RVE = 8.1%; Mukuvisi NSE = 57%, RVE = 9.9%) periods. The study demonstrates the suitability of HEC-HMS for continuous runoff simulation in a complex watershed with numerous subcatchments and channel reaches. The ungauged subcatchments contribute to 51% of Upper Manyame Catchment's runoff. Ruwa and Lake Chivero subcatchments had the highest ungauged subcatchment contribution to Upper Manyame Catchment runoff (19% and 15% respectively). This work will have a significant contribution for the future development of water resources programs in Upper Manyame Catchment in particular and in other data-scarce catchments.

  15. Combinations of specilaized conceptual and neural network rainfall-runoff models: comparison of performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kayastha, Nagendra; Solomatine, Dimitri

    2013-04-01

    A single hydrological model (process-based or data driven) might not equally well describe the characteristic of a complex rainfall-runoff relationship. One possibility here is building several specialized (local) models which can be specifically oriented at a particular process in the same model structure and combining them using weighting scheme the result can be called a multi-model, or a committee model. In this approach first we build the individual specialized models which are mainly calibrated on various regimes corresponding to hydrological sub-processes for example, low flow and high flow, and combining their outputs using the ideas of a fuzzy membership with various parameterisations. This experiment explores the several committee models of specialized hydrological models [1, 2] which are employed for rainfall-runoff model prediction. Comparison of three committee models are demonstrated which constructed from specialized models: (1) processes-based conceptual HBV rainfall-runoff model (CRRM) (2) rainfall-runoff model based on artificial neural networks (ANN) and (3) combination of CRRM and ANN. The weights assigned to each specialized model's output are based on fuzzy membership functions which are different at every time step depending on the current value of flow. Comparison results indicated that committee model CRRM-ANN built from the high flow HBV model and low flow ANN model outperformed other models. Bagmati catchment in Nepal and Leaf catchment in USA are considered as case studies. [1] Fenicia, F., Solomatine, D. P., Savenije, H. H. G. and Matgen, P. Soft combination of local models in a multi-objective framework. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 1797-1809, Special Issue "Data-driven approaches, optimization and model integration: hydrological applications", R. Abrahart, L. See, D. Solomatine, and E. Toth (eds.), 2007. [2] Kayastha N., J. Ye, Fenicia, F., Solomatine, D. P. Fuzzy committees of specialized rainfall-runoff models: further enhancements

  16. Comparison of Various Optimization Methods for Calibration of Conceptual Rainfall-Runoff Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhatt, Divya; Jain, Ashu

    2010-05-01

    Runoff forecasts are needed in many water resources activities such as flood and drought management, irrigation practices, and water distribution systems, etc. Runoff is generally forecasted using rainfall-runoff models by using hydrologic data in the catchment. Computer based hydrologic models have become popular with practicing hydrologists and water resources engineers for performing hydrologic forecasts and for managing water systems. Rainfall-runoff library (RRL) is computer software developed by Cooperative Research Centre for Catchment Hydrology (CRCCH), Australia. The RRL consists of five different conceptual rainfall-runoff models and has been in operation in many water resources applications in Australia. RRL is designed to simulate catchment runoff by using daily rainfall and evapotranspiration data. In this paper, the results from an investigation on the use of different optimization methods for the calibration of various conceptual rainfall-runoff models available in RRL toolkit are presented. Out of the five conceptual models in the RRL toolkit, AWBM (The Australian Water Balance Model) has been employed. Seven different optimization methods are investigated for the calibration of the AWBM model. The optimization methods investigated include uniform random sampling, pattern search, multi start pattern search, Rosenbrock search, Rosenbrock multi-start search, Shuffled Complex Evolution (SCE-UA) and Genetic Algorithm (GA). Trial and error procedures were employed to arrive at the best values of various parameters involved in the optimizers for all to develop the AWBM. The results obtained from the best configuration of the AWBM are presented here for all optimization methods. The daily rainfall and runoff data derived from Bird Creek Basin, Oklahoma, USA have been employed to develop all the models included here. A wide range of error statistics have been used to evaluate the performance of all the models developed in this study. It has been found that

  17. Uncertainty in hydrological change modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Seaby, Lauren Paige

    Hydrological change modelling methodologies generally use climate models outputs to force hydrological simulations under changed conditions. There are nested sources of uncertainty throughout this methodology, including choice of climate model and subsequent bias correction methods. This Ph.......D. study evaluates the uncertainty of the impact of climate change in hydrological simulations given multiple climate models and bias correction methods of varying complexity. Three distribution based scaling methods (DBS) were developed and benchmarked against a more simplistic and commonly used delta...... change (DC) approach. These climate model projections were then used to force hydrological simulations under climate change for the island Sjælland in Denmark to analyse the contribution of different climate models and bias correction methods to overall uncertainty in the hydrological change modelling...

  18. Modeling the Hydrologic Processes of a Permeable Pavement System

    Science.gov (United States)

    A permeable pavement system can capture stormwater to reduce runoff volume and flow rate, improve onsite groundwater recharge, and enhance pollutant controls within the site. A new unit process model for evaluating the hydrologic performance of a permeable pavement system has be...

  19. Data assimilation in hydrological modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Drecourt, Jean-Philippe

    Data assimilation is an invaluable tool in hydrological modelling as it allows to efficiently combine scarce data with a numerical model to obtain improved model predictions. In addition, data assimilation also provides an uncertainty analysis of the predictions made by the hydrological model...... with model non-linearities and biased errors. A literature review analyzes the most popular techniques and their application in hydrological modelling. Since bias is an important problem in groundwater modelling, two bias aware Kalman filters have been implemented and compared using an artificial test case...

  20. Hydrological modeling in forested systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    H.E. Golden; G.R. Evenson; S. Tian; Devendra Amatya; Ge Sun

    2015-01-01

    Characterizing and quantifying interactions among components of the forest hydrological cycle is complex and usually requires a combination of field monitoring and modelling approaches (Weiler and McDonnell, 2004; National Research Council, 2008). Models are important tools for testing hypotheses, understanding hydrological processes and synthesizing experimental data...

  1. Reducing equifinality of hydrological models by integrating Functional Streamflow Disaggregation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lüdtke, Stefan; Apel, Heiko; Nied, Manuela; Carl, Peter; Merz, Bruno

    2014-05-01

    A universal problem of the calibration of hydrological models is the equifinality of different parameter sets derived from the calibration of models against total runoff values. This is an intrinsic problem stemming from the quality of the calibration data and the simplified process representation by the model. However, discharge data contains additional information which can be extracted by signal processing methods. An analysis specifically developed for the disaggregation of runoff time series into flow components is the Functional Streamflow Disaggregation (FSD; Carl & Behrendt, 2008). This method is used in the calibration of an implementation of the hydrological model SWIM in a medium sized watershed in Thailand. FSD is applied to disaggregate the discharge time series into three flow components which are interpreted as base flow, inter-flow and surface runoff. In addition to total runoff, the model is calibrated against these three components in a modified GLUE analysis, with the aim to identify structural model deficiencies, assess the internal process representation and to tackle equifinality. We developed a model dependent (MDA) approach calibrating the model runoff components against the FSD components, and a model independent (MIA) approach comparing the FSD of the model results and the FSD of calibration data. The results indicate, that the decomposition provides valuable information for the calibration. Particularly MDA highlights and discards a number of standard GLUE behavioural models underestimating the contribution of soil water to river discharge. Both, MDA and MIA yield to a reduction of the parameter ranges by a factor up to 3 in comparison to standard GLUE. Based on these results, we conclude that the developed calibration approach is able to reduce the equifinality of hydrological model parameterizations. The effect on the uncertainty of the model predictions is strongest by applying MDA and shows only minor reductions for MIA. Besides

  2. A nonparametric standardized runoff index for characterizing hydrological drought on the Loess Plateau, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Jingwen; Miao, Chiyuan; Tang, Xu; Duan, Qingyun; He, Xiaojia

    2018-02-01

    Drought is one of the world's most recurrent and destructive hazards, and the evolution of drought events has become increasingly complex against a background of climate change and changing human activities. Over the last five decades, there have been frequent droughts on the Loess Plateau in China. In this study, we used the nonparametric standardized runoff index (NSRI) to investigate the temporal characteristics of hydrological drought in 17 Loess Plateau catchments during the period 1961-2013. Furthermore, we used a cross-wavelet transform to reveal linkages between an El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index and the NSRI series. The primary results indicated that the annual and seasonal NSRI series displayed statistically significantly downward trends in all catchments, with the only exception being the winter NSRI series in Yanhe. Furthermore, our analyses showed downward trends persisting into the future in all 17 catchments except Yanhe. We also found that, overall, the risk of hydrological drought was high on the Loess Plateau, with the mean duration at the seasonal scale exceeding 4 months and the mean duration at the annual scale exceeding 12 months. Moreover, during recent years, the trend towards hydrological drought was greater in the spring than in other seasons. ENSO events were closely associated with annual and seasonal hydrological drought on the Loess Plateau, and the impact of ENSO events was stronger in the southeast of the plateau than the northwest at both seasonal and annual scales. These results may provide valuable information about the evolutionary characteristics of hydrological drought across the Loess Plateau and may also be useful for predicting and mitigating future hydrological drought on the plateau.

  3. Clustering of hydrological data: a review of methods for runoff predictions in ungauged basins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dogulu, Nilay; Kentel, Elcin

    2017-04-01

    There is a great body of research that has looked into the challenge of hydrological predictions in ungauged basins as driven by the Prediction in Ungauged Basins (PUB) initiative of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS). Transfer of hydrological information (e.g. model parameters, flow signatures) from gauged to ungauged catchment, often referred as "regionalization", is the main objective and benefits from identification of hydrologically homogenous regions. Within this context, indirect representation of hydrologic similarity for ungauged catchments, which is not a straightforward task due to absence of streamflow measurements and insufficient knowledge of hydrologic behavior, has been explored in the literature. To this aim, clustering methods have been widely adopted. While most of the studies employ hard clustering techniques such as hierarchical (divisive or agglomerative) clustering, there have been more recent attempts taking advantage of fuzzy set theory (fuzzy clustering) and nonlinear methods (e.g. self-organizing maps). The relevant research findings from this fundamental task of hydrologic sciences have revealed the value of different clustering methods for improved understanding of catchment hydrology. However, despite advancements there still remains challenges and yet opportunities for research on clustering for regionalization purposes. The present work provides an overview of clustering techniques and their applications in hydrology with focus on regionalization for the PUB problem. Identifying their advantages and disadvantages, we discuss the potential of innovative clustering methods and reflect on future challenges in view of the research objectives of the PUB initiative.

  4. Integrated climate and hydrology modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Morten Andreas Dahl

    global warming and increased frequency of extreme events. The skill in developing projections of both the present and future climate depends essentially on the ability to numerically simulate the processes of atmospheric circulation, hydrology, energy and ecology. Previous modelling efforts of climate...... and hydrology have used each model component in an offline mode where the models are run in sequential steps and one model serves as a boundary condition or data input source to the other. Within recent years a new field of research has emerged where efforts have been made to dynamically couple existing climate....... The modelling tool consists of a fully dynamic two-way coupling of the HIRHAM regional climate model and the MIKE SHE hydrological model. The expected gain is twofold. Firstly, HIRHAM utilizes the land surface component of the combined MIKE SHE/SWET hydrology and land surface model (LSM), which is superior...

  5. Polar View Snow Service- Operational Snow Cover Mapping for Downstream Runoff Modeling and Hydropower Predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bach, Heike; Appel, Florian; Rust, Felix; Mauser, Wolfram

    2010-12-01

    Information on snow cover and snow properties are important for hydrology and runoff modelling. Frequent updates of snow cover observation, especially for areas characterized by short-term snow dynamics, can help to improve water balance and discharge calculations. Within the GMES service element Polar View, VISTA offers a snow mapping service for Central Europe since several years [1, 2]. We outline the use of this near-real- time product for hydrological applications in Alpine environment. In particular we discuss the integration of the Polar View product into a physically based hydrological model (PROMET). This allows not only the provision of snow equivalent values, but also enhances river runoff modelling and its use in hydropower energy yield prediction. The GMES snow products of Polar View are thus used in a downstream service for water resources management, providing information services for renewable energy suppliers and energy traders.

  6. Impact of evapotranspiration process representation on runoff projections from conceptual rainfall-runoff models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Danlu; Westra, Seth; Maier, Holger R.

    2017-01-01

    Conceptual rainfall-runoff models are commonly used to estimate potential changes in runoff due to climate change. The development of these models has generally focused on reproducing runoff characteristics, with less scrutiny on other important processes such as the conversion from potential evapotranspiration (PET) to actual evapotranspiration (AET). This study uses three conceptual rainfall-runoff models (GR4J, AWBM, and IHACRES_CMD) and five catchments in climatologically different regions of Australia to explore the role of ET process representation on the sensitivity of runoff to plausible future changes in PET. The changes in PET were simulated using the Penman-Monteith model and by perturbing each of the driving variables (temperature, solar radiation, humidity, and wind) separately. Surprisingly, the results showed the potential of a more than sevenfold difference in runoff sensitivity per unit change in annual average PET, depending on both the rainfall-runoff model and the climate variable used to perturb PET. These differences were largely due to different ways used to convert PET to AET in the conceptual rainfall-runoff models, with particular dependencies on the daily wet/dry status, as well as the seasonal variations in store levels. By comparing the temporal patterns in simulated AET with eddy-covariance-based observations at two of the study locations, we highlighted some unrealistic behavior in the simulated AET from AWBM. Such process-based evaluations are useful for scrutinizing the representation of physical processes in alternative conceptual rainfall-runoff models, which can be particularly useful for selecting models for projecting runoff under a changing climate.

  7. A hydrological model of New Zealand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woods, R. A.; Tarboton, D. G.; Ibbitt, R. P.; Wild, M.; Henderson, R. D.; Turner, R.

    2003-04-01

    We present initial results from a hydrological model of New Zealand, using Topnet, a variant of TOPMODEL, linked to a kinematic wave channel network routing algorithm. This model run uses daily timesteps for the period 1985-2001, and subdivides the country into approximately 35,000 sub-catchments of 7-10 sq km each. The sub-catchments are linked by 55,000 river reaches, which route sub-catchment runoff. The model subcatchments and reaches are defined automatically by DEM analyses, and initial estimates of model parameters are defined by GIS overlay, coupled with purpose-built model assembly code, and lookup tables for model parameters. A daily simulation for 1 year over New Zealand takes two hours on a standard desktop computer. The model is forced by gridded daily rainfall and temperature data, and it calculates daily water balance for each of the sub-catchments (rain, evaporation, throughfall, infiltration, soil drainage, surface runoff, subsurface runoff, and changes in storage in the canopy, root zone, and saturated storage), as well as daily flows in each river reach. The model as currently implemented does not include snow, glaciers, or deep groundwater flow (i.e. across sub-catchment boundaries). The first applications of the model are for developing an annual water balance of New Zealand for the period 1994-2001, at the regional scale, and for driving a high-spatial resolution, daily time-stepping national erosion model. We are moving to further applications for water resource modeling (e.g. impact of abstraction and/or storage), and for flood forecasting, using hourly rainfall from a mesoscale atmospheric model.

  8. Variability and trend in the hydrology of the Yangtze River, China: Annual precipitation and runoff

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Jing; Wu, Xiaodan; Finlayson, Brian L.; Webber, Michael; Wei, Taoyuan; Li, Maotian; Chen, Zhongyuan

    2014-05-01

    The catchment of the Yangtze River in China has a long history of human occupation and the intensity of human impacts has increased markedly since economic reforms began in the late 1970s. In order to try to assess the impact of these changes on the hydrology of the river, we analyse both the annual flows of the Yangtze River and annual temperature and precipitation for the Yangtze catchment for the period 1955-2011 and for the three sections of the catchment, Upper, Middle and Lower as defined by the location of the gauging stations at Yichang, Hankou and Datong respectively. Mean annual temperature increases downstream from 12.7 °C in the Upper to 16.0 °C in the Lower section. A significant increasing trend in mean annual temperature is detected over the period 1955-2011 in the whole catchment and all subsections. Mean annual precipitation for the whole catchment is 1045 mm ranging from 859 mm in the elevated Upper section to 1528 mm in the Lower section. Precipitation variability is low by world standards with an annual Cv of 0.066. Using the Mann-Kendal and Rank Sums tests we do not find any trend in precipitation in the catchment. Mean annual runoff for the whole catchment is 515 mm ranging from 421 mm in the Upper Catchment to 838 mm in the Lower Catchment. Runoff variability is also low by world standards with an annual runoff Cv of 0.129. For the Middle Catchment we find a small but statistically significant increase in runoff and the runoff ratio over the period 1955-2011, possibly caused by change in the nature of the surface due to accelerated urbanization post 1980 and increased area of water storage. Overall, annual runoff in the Yangtze River shows little response to the major changes occurring in the basin. In a multiple correlation analysis of discharge, precipitation, dam volume, population and GDP, only precipitation is significantly correlated with discharge, explaining 80% of the variance. Widespread reporting of the impact of development on

  9. Radar altimetry assimilation in catchment-scale hydrological models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauer-Gottwein, P.; Michailovsky, C. I. B.

    2012-04-01

    Satellite-borne radar altimeters provide time series of river and lake levels with global coverage and moderate temporal resolution. Current missions can detect rivers down to a minimum width of about 100m, depending on local conditions around the virtual station. Water level time series from space-borne radar altimeters are an important source of information in ungauged or poorly gauged basins. However, many water resources management applications require information on river discharge. Water levels can be converted into river discharge by means of a rating curve, if sufficient and accurate information on channel geometry, slope and roughness is available. Alternatively, altimetric river levels can be assimilated into catchment-scale hydrological models. The updated models can subsequently be used to produce improved discharge estimates. In this study, a Muskingum routing model for a river network is updated using multiple radar altimetry time series. The routing model is forced with runoff produced by lumped-parameter rainfall-runoff models in each subcatchment. Runoff is uncertain because of errors in the precipitation forcing, structural errors in the rainfall-runoff model as well as uncertain rainfall-runoff model parameters. Altimetric measurements are translated into river reach storage based on river geometry. The Muskingum routing model is forced with a runoff ensemble and storages in the river reaches are updated using a Kalman filter approach. The approach is applied to the Zambezi and Brahmaputra river basins. Assimilation of radar altimetry significantly improves the capability of the models to simulate river discharge.

  10. Sink plot for runoff measurements on semi-flat terrains: preliminary data and their potential hydrological and ecological implications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kidron Giora J.

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available In arid and semiarid regions where water is the main limiting factor, water redistribution is regarded as an important hydrological process of great ecological value. By providing additional water to certain loci, moist pockets of great productivity are formed, characterized by high plant biomass and biological activity. These moist pockets are often a result of runon. Yet, although runoff may take place on semi-flat undulating surfaces, runoff measurements are thus far confined to slopes, where a sufficient gradient facilitates downslope water harvesting. On undulating surfaces of mounds and depressions, such as in interdunes, no quantification of the amount of water reaching depressions is feasible due to the fact that no reliable method for measuring the runoff amounts in semi-flat terrains is available. The current paper describes specific runoff plots, designed to measure runoff in depressions (sinks. These plots, termed sink plots (SPs, were operative in the Hallamish dunefield (Negev Desert, Israel. The paper presents measurements of runoff yield that were carried out between January 2013 and January 2014 on SPs and compared them to runoff obtained from crusted slope plots and fine-grained (playa surfaces. The potential hydrological and ecological implications of water redistribution within semi-flat terrains for this and other arid ecosystems are discussed.

  11. [Parameter uncertainty analysis for urban rainfall runoff modelling].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Jin-Liang; Lin, Jie; Du, Peng-Fei

    2012-07-01

    An urban watershed in Xiamen was selected to perform the parameter uncertainty analysis for urban stormwater runoff modeling in terms of identification and sensitivity analysis based on storm water management model (SWMM) using Monte-Carlo sampling and regionalized sensitivity analysis (RSA) algorithm. Results show that Dstore-Imperv, Dstore-Perv and Curve Number (CN) are the identifiable parameters with larger K-S values in hydrological and hydraulic module, and the rank of K-S values in hydrological and hydraulic module is Dstore-Imperv > CN > Dstore-Perv > N-Perv > conductivity > Con-Mann > N-Imperv. With regards to water quality module, the parameters in exponent washoff model including Coefficient and Exponent and the Max. Buildup parameter of saturation buildup model in three land cover types are the identifiable parameters with the larger K-S values. In comparison, the K-S value of rate constant in three landuse/cover types is smaller than that of Max. Buildup, Coefficient and Exponent.

  12. Statistical analysis and modelling of surface runoff from arable fields in central Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Fiener

    2013-10-01

    runoff rate (RSME: 5.2 mm and 0.23 mm min−1, respectively, while RMSE of runoff volume predicted by the curve number model was 50% higher (7.7 mm. Stone cover, if it exceeded 10%, was most important for the initial abstraction, while time since tillage was most important for the hydrograph. Time since tillage is not taken into account either in typical lumped hydrological models (e.g. SCS curve number approach or in more mechanistic models using Horton, Green and Ampt, or Philip type approaches to address infiltration although tillage affects many physical and biological soil properties that subsequently and gradually change again. This finding should foster a discussion regarding our ability to predict surface runoff from arable land, which seemed to be dominated by agricultural operations that introduce man-made seasonality in soil hydraulic properties.

  13. Xanthos – A Global Hydrologic Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xinya Li

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Xanthos is an open-source hydrologic model, written in Python, designed to quantify and analyse global water availability. Xanthos simulates historical and future global water availability on a monthly time step at a spatial resolution of 0.5 geographic degrees. Xanthos was designed to be extensible and used by scientists that study global water supply and work with the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM. Xanthos uses a user-defined configuration file to specify model inputs, outputs and parameters. Xanthos has been tested using actual global data sets and the model is able to provide historical observations and future estimates of renewable freshwater resources in the form of total runoff. Funding statement: PNNL is operated for DOE by Battelle Memorial Institute under contract DE-AC05-76RL01830.

  14. Improving hydrological simulations by incorporating GRACE data for model calibration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bai, Peng; Liu, Xiaomang; Liu, Changming

    2018-02-01

    Hydrological model parameters are typically calibrated by observed streamflow data. This calibration strategy is questioned when the simulated hydrological variables of interest are not limited to streamflow. Well-performed streamflow simulations do not guarantee the reliable reproduction of other hydrological variables. One of the reasons is that hydrological model parameters are not reasonably identified. The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE)-derived total water storage change (TWSC) data provide an opportunity to constrain hydrological model parameterizations in combination with streamflow observations. In this study, a multi-objective calibration scheme based on GRACE-derived TWSC and streamflow observations was compared with the traditional single-objective calibration scheme based on only streamflow simulations. Two hydrological models were employed on 22 catchments in China with different climatic conditions. The model evaluations were performed using observed streamflows, GRACE-derived TWSC, and actual evapotranspiration (ET) estimates from flux towers and from the water balance approach. Results showed that the multi-objective calibration scheme provided more reliable TWSC and ET simulations without significant deterioration in the accuracy of streamflow simulations than the single-objective calibration. The improvement in TWSC and ET simulations was more significant in relatively dry catchments than in relatively wet catchments. In addition, hydrological models calibrated using GRACE-derived TWSC data alone cannot obtain accurate runoff simulations in ungauged catchments. This study highlights the importance of including additional constraints in addition to streamflow observations to improve performances of hydrological models.

  15. An Educational Model for Hands-On Hydrology Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    AghaKouchak, A.; Nakhjiri, N.; Habib, E. H.

    2014-12-01

    This presentation provides an overview of a hands-on modeling tool developed for students in civil engineering and earth science disciplines to help them learn the fundamentals of hydrologic processes, model calibration, sensitivity analysis, uncertainty assessment, and practice conceptual thinking in solving engineering problems. The toolbox includes two simplified hydrologic models, namely HBV-EDU and HBV-Ensemble, designed as a complement to theoretical hydrology lectures. The models provide an interdisciplinary application-oriented learning environment that introduces the hydrologic phenomena through the use of a simplified conceptual hydrologic model. The toolbox can be used for in-class lab practices and homework assignments, and assessment of students' understanding of hydrological processes. Using this modeling toolbox, students can gain more insights into how hydrological processes (e.g., precipitation, snowmelt and snow accumulation, soil moisture, evapotranspiration and runoff generation) are interconnected. The educational toolbox includes a MATLAB Graphical User Interface (GUI) and an ensemble simulation scheme that can be used for teaching more advanced topics including uncertainty analysis, and ensemble simulation. Both models have been administered in a class for both in-class instruction and a final project, and students submitted their feedback about the toolbox. The results indicate that this educational software had a positive impact on students understanding and knowledge of hydrology.

  16. Hydrology in a mediterranean mountain environment. The Vallcebre research catchment (north eastern Spain) II. Rainfall-runoff relationships and runoff processes; Hidrologia de un ambiente Mediterraneo de montana. Las cuencas de Vallcebre (Pirineo Oriental) II. Relaciones precipitacion-escorrentia y procesos hidrologicos

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Latron, J.; Solar, M.; Nord, G.; Llorens, P.; Gallart, F.

    2009-07-01

    Hydrological response and runoff processes have been studied in the Vallcebre research basins (North Eastern Spain) for almost 20 years. Results obtained allowed to build a more complete perceptual model of the hydrological functioning of Mediterranean mountains basins. On a seasonal and monthly scale, there was no simple relationship between rainfall and runoff depths. Monthly rainfall and runoff values revealed the existence of a threshold in the relationship between rainfall and runoff depths. At the event scale, the storm-flow coefficient had a clear seasonal pattern. The effect of the water table position on how rainfall and runoff volumes relate was observed. Examination of soil water potential and water table dynamics during representative floods helped to identify 3 types of characteristic hydrological behaviour during the year. Under dry conditions, runoff was generated essentially as infiltration excess runoff in low permeable areas, whereas saturation excess runoff dominated during wetting-up and wet conditions. During wetting-up transition, saturated areas resulted from the development of scattered perched water tables, whereas in wet conditions they were linked to the rise of the shallow water table. (Author) 8 refs.

  17. Documentation for the hydrological discharge model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hagemann, S.; Duemenil, L. [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg (Germany)

    1998-10-01

    To improve the representation of hydrological land surface processes, which has so far been treated inadequately in global models of the atmospheric general circulation (GCMs), a model for the lateral waterflows from the continents into the ocean on the global scale was developed. The model describes the translation and retention of the lateral discharge as a function of the spatially distributed land surface characteristics that are globally available. Here, global scale refers to the resolution of 0.5 and lower, corresponding to a typical GCM gridbox area of about 2500 km{sup 2}. This model is called the Hydrological Discharge model or HD model. The HD model computes the discharge only at 0.5 resolution. A model input fields (runoff and drainage, see Sect. 3.1.) from the various GCM resolutions are interpolated to the same 0.5 grid. Thus, input fields may be used from any available resolution, if the corresponding interpolation routine to the 0.5 degree grid is provided. Since the HD model uses a time step of one day, a temporal resolution of one day is sufficient for the input fields. (orig.)

  18. Improving runoff estimates from regional climate models: a performance analysis in Spain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. González-Zeas

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available An important step to assess water availability is to have monthly time series representative of the current situation. In this context, a simple methodology is presented for application in large-scale studies in regions where a properly calibrated hydrologic model is not available, using the output variables simulated by regional climate models (RCMs of the European project PRUDENCE under current climate conditions (period 1961–1990. The methodology compares different interpolation methods and alternatives to generate annual times series that minimise the bias with respect to observed values. The objective is to identify the best alternative to obtain bias-corrected, monthly runoff time series from the output of RCM simulations. This study uses information from 338 basins in Spain that cover the entire mainland territory and whose observed values of natural runoff have been estimated by the distributed hydrological model SIMPA. Four interpolation methods for downscaling runoff to the basin scale from 10 RCMs are compared with emphasis on the ability of each method to reproduce the observed behaviour of this variable. The alternatives consider the use of the direct runoff of the RCMs and the mean annual runoff calculated using five functional forms of the aridity index, defined as the ratio between potential evapotranspiration and precipitation. In addition, the comparison with respect to the global runoff reference of the UNH/GRDC dataset is evaluated, as a contrast of the "best estimator" of current runoff on a large scale. Results show that the bias is minimised using the direct original interpolation method and the best alternative for bias correction of the monthly direct runoff time series of RCMs is the UNH/GRDC dataset, although the formula proposed by Schreiber (1904 also gives good results.

  19. Evaluation of a monthly hydrological model for Integrated Assessment Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Y.; Hejazi, M. I.; Li, H. Y.; Zhang, X.; Leng, G.

    2016-12-01

    The Integrated Assessment modeling (IAM) community, which generated the four representative concentration pathways (RCPs), is actively moving toward including endogenous representations of water supply and demand in their economic modeling frameworks. Toward integrating the water supply module, we build an efficient object-oriented and open-source hydrologic model (HM) to be embedded in IAMs - Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). The main objective for this new HM is to strike a balance between model complexity and computational efficiency; i.e., possessing sufficient fidelity to capture both the annual and the seasonal signals of water fluxes and pools and being highly computationally efficient so that it can be used for large number of simulations or uncertainty quantification analyses. To this end, we build a monthly gridded hydrological model based on the ABCD model with some additional features such as a snow scheme and the effects of land use and land cover change (LULCC) on the hydrological cycle. In this framework, we mainly simulate the pools of soil moisture, snowpack and groundwater storage, and the fluxes of evapotranspiration, recharge to groundwater, direct runoff and groundwater discharge. We assess the performance of the model by comparing the model results against runoff simulation from the model of Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) as well as historical streamflow observations at various gauge stations. We will present results on the model performance, the gains of adding different model components (e.g., snow scheme, effects of LULCC), and the variations of hydrological cycle globally over the historical period of 1901-2010.

  20. Dynamic Hydrological Modeling in Drylands with TRMM Based Rainfall

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena Tarnavsky

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper introduces and evaluates DryMOD, a dynamic water balance model of the key hydrological process in drylands that is based on free, public-domain datasets. The rainfall model of DryMOD makes optimal use of spatially disaggregated Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM datasets to simulate hourly rainfall intensities at a spatial resolution of 1-km. Regional-scale applications of the model in seasonal catchments in Tunisia and Senegal characterize runoff and soil moisture distribution and dynamics in response to varying rainfall data inputs and soil properties. The results highlight the need for hourly-based rainfall simulation and for correcting TRMM 3B42 rainfall intensities for the fractional cover of rainfall (FCR. Without FCR correction and disaggregation to 1 km, TRMM 3B42 based rainfall intensities are too low to generate surface runoff and to induce substantial changes to soil moisture storage. The outcomes from the sensitivity analysis show that topsoil porosity is the most important soil property for simulation of runoff and soil moisture. Thus, we demonstrate the benefit of hydrological investigations at a scale, for which reliable information on soil profile characteristics exists and which is sufficiently fine to account for the heterogeneities of these. Where such information is available, application of DryMOD can assist in the spatial and temporal planning of water harvesting according to runoff-generating areas and the runoff ratio, as well as in the optimization of agricultural activities based on realistic representation of soil moisture conditions.

  1. Hydrological modeling of the Jiaoyi watershed (China) using HSPF model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Chang-An; Zhang, Wanchang; Zhang, Zhijie

    2014-01-01

    A watershed hydrological model, hydrological simulation program-Fortran (HSPF), was applied to simulate the spatial and temporal variation of hydrological processes in the Jiaoyi watershed of Huaihe River Basin, the heaviest shortage of water resources and polluted area in China. The model was calibrated using the years 2001-2004 and validated with data from 2005 to 2006. Calibration and validation results showed that the model generally simulated mean monthly and daily runoff precisely due to the close matching hydrographs between simulated and observed runoff, as well as the excellent evaluation indicators such as Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), coefficient of correlation (R (2)), and the relative error (RE). The similar simulation results between calibration and validation period showed that all the calibrated parameters had a certain representation in Jiaoyi watershed. Additionally, the simulation in rainy months was more accurate than the drought months. Another result in this paper was that HSPF was also capable of estimating the water balance components reasonably and realistically in space through the whole watershed. The calibrated model can be used to explore the effects of climate change scenarios and various watershed management practices on the water resources and water environment in the basin.

  2. Can the super model (SUMO) method improve hydrological simulations? Exploratory tests with the GR hydrological models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santos, Léonard; Thirel, Guillaume; Perrin, Charles

    2017-04-01

    Errors made by hydrological models may come from a problem in parameter estimation, uncertainty on observed measurements, numerical problems and from the model conceptualization that simplifies the reality. Here we focus on this last issue of hydrological modeling. One of the solutions to reduce structural uncertainty is to use a multimodel method, taking advantage of the great number and the variability of existing hydrological models. In particular, because different models are not similarly good in all situations, using multimodel approaches can improve the robustness of modeled outputs. Traditionally, in hydrology, multimodel methods are based on the output of the model (the simulated flow series). The aim of this poster is to introduce a different approach based on the internal variables of the models. The method is inspired by the SUper MOdel (SUMO, van den Berge et al., 2011) developed for climatology. The idea of the SUMO method is to correct the internal variables of a model taking into account the values of the internal variables of (an)other model(s). This correction is made bilaterally between the different models. The ensemble of the different models constitutes a super model in which all the models exchange information on their internal variables with each other at each time step. Due to this continuity in the exchanges, this multimodel algorithm is more dynamic than traditional multimodel methods. The method will be first tested using two GR4J models (in a state-space representation) with different parameterizations. The results will be presented and compared to traditional multimodel methods that will serve as benchmarks. In the future, other rainfall-runoff models will be used in the super model. References van den Berge, L. A., Selten, F. M., Wiegerinck, W., and Duane, G. S. (2011). A multi-model ensemble method that combines imperfect models through learning. Earth System Dynamics, 2(1) :161-177.

  3. Hydrological Modelling of Ganga River basin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anand, J.; Gosain, A. K.; Khosa, R.

    2015-12-01

    Application of a hydrological model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to the Ganga basin having a total drainage area of around 1.08 M sq. km extending over Tibet, Nepal, India and Bangladesh has been made. The model is calibrated to determine the spatial deviations in runoff at sub-basin level, and to capture the water balance of the river basin. Manual calibration approach was used for calibrating the SWAT model by following multi-step procedure to get to the realistic present situation as close as possible. Simulations were then further made with and without proposed future projects to obtain various scenarios. The various statistical parameters used for the evaluation of the monthly runoff simulation showed that SWAT performed well in mimicking the monthly stream flow for Ganga River basin. The model under predicted the flows in the non-perennial region during non-monsoon season, due to low rainfall and regulated flows and seepage taking place from the reservoirs. The impacts of the interventions, both existing as well as proposed, on the water balance of the basin were evaluated and quantified. The derived results suggest that there is a substantial reduction in overall water resources availability in the study basin on account of the current level of development and further, future developments, as are being proposed, may require a careful study of their potential impact on currently sanctioned water use. The present study showcases that efficacy of the model for simulating the stream flow is admirable.

  4. Runoff- and erosion-driven transport of cattle slurry: linking molecular tracers to hydrological processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lloyd, C. E. M.; Michaelides, K.; Chadwick, D. R.; Dungait, J. A. J.; Evershed, R. P.

    2016-02-01

    The addition of cattle slurry to agricultural land is a widespread practise, but if not correctly managed it can pose a contamination risk to aquatic ecosystems. The transport of inorganic and organic components of cattle slurry to watercourses is a major concern, yet little is known about the physical transport mechanisms and associated fluxes and timings of contamination threats. Therefore, the aim of the study was to ascertain the importance of flow pathway partitioning in the transport (fluxes and timing) of dissolved and particulate slurry-derived compounds with implications for off-site contamination. A series of rainfall-runoff and erosion experiments were carried out using the TRACE (Test Rig for Advancing Connectivity Experiments) experimental hillslope facility. The experiments allowed the quantification of the impact of changing slope gradient and rainfall intensity on nutrient transport from cattle slurry applied to the hillslope, via surface, subsurface, and vertical percolated flow pathways, as well as particulate transport from erosion. The dissolved components were traced using a combination of ammonium (NH4+) and fluorescence analysis, while the particulate fraction was traced using organic biomarkers, 5β-stanols. Results showed that rainfall events which produced flashy hydrological responses, resulting in large quantities of surface runoff, were likely to move sediment and also flush dissolved components of slurry-derived material from the slope, increasing the contamination risk. Rainfall events which produced slower hydrological responses were dominated by vertical percolated flows removing less sediment-associated material, but produced leachate which could contaminate deeper soil layers, and potentially groundwater, over a more prolonged period. Overall, this research provides new insights into the partitioning of slurry-derived material when applied to an unvegetated slope and the transport mechanisms by which contamination risks are

  5. Spatial resolution considerations for urban hydrological modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krebs, G.; Kokkonen, T.; Valtanen, M.; Setälä, H.; Koivusalo, H.

    2014-05-01

    Hydrological model simulations can be applied to evaluate the performance of low impact development (LID) tools in urban areas. However, the assessment for large-scale urban areas remains a challenge due to the required high spatial resolution and limited availability of field measurements for model calibration. This study proposes a methodology to parameterize a hydrological model (SWMM) with sufficiently high spatial resolution and direct accessibility of model parameters for LID performance simulation applicable to a large-scale ungauged urban area. Based on calibrated high-resolution models for three small-scale study catchments (6-12 ha), we evaluated how constraints implied by large-scale urban modelling, such as data limitations, affect the model results. The high-resolution surface representation, resulting in subcatchments of uniform surface types, reduced the number of calibration parameters. Calibration conducted independently for all catchments yielded similar parameter values for same surface types in each study catchment. These results suggest the applicability of the parameter values calibrated for high resolution models to be regionalized to larger, ungauged urban areas. The accessibility of surface specific model parameters for LID simulation is then also retained. Conducted perturbations in spatial resolution through sewer network truncation showed that while the runoff volume was mostly unaffected by resolution perturbations, lower resolutions resulted in over-simulation of peak flows due to excessively rapid catchment response to storm events. Our results suggest that a hydrological model where parameter values are adopted from high-resolution models and that is developed based on a minimum conduit diameter of 300 mm provides good simulation performance and is applicable to large-scale urban areas with reasonable effort.

  6. Runoff source or sink? Biocrust hydrological function strongly depends on the relative abundance of mosses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowker, M. A.; Eldridge, D. J.; Maestre, F. T.

    2012-04-01

    infiltration variables, and moderate effects on biocrust properties. Biocrust total cover and composition were again the most influential of biocrust community properties on infiltration, especially in the case of the composition effect on steady state infiltration under ponding. The key difference was that the Australian biocrusts primarily decreased infiltration. On dune runoff zones, later successional biocrusts (lichens, mosses, dark cyanobacterial crusts) of any type decreased infiltration rates compared to early successional crusts. On swale run-on zones, lichens impeded infiltration and mosses did not. These results highlight the importance of biocrusts as key players in the redistribution of water, and demonstrate the modulating role played by animal ecosystem engineers through their localized surface disturbances. Our studies highlight the central role of the relative abundance of mosses compared to other biocrust organisms as an underappreciated, and perhaps a key, determinant of biocrust hydrology.

  7. Uncertainty based modeling of rainfall-runoff: Combined differential evolution adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) and K-means clustering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zahmatkesh, Zahra; Karamouz, Mohammad; Nazif, Sara

    2015-09-01

    Simulation of rainfall-runoff process in urban areas is of great importance considering the consequences and damages of extreme runoff events and floods. The first issue in flood hazard analysis is rainfall simulation. Large scale climate signals have been proved to be effective in rainfall simulation and prediction. In this study, an integrated scheme is developed for rainfall-runoff modeling considering different sources of uncertainty. This scheme includes three main steps of rainfall forecasting, rainfall-runoff simulation and future runoff prediction. In the first step, data driven models are developed and used to forecast rainfall using large scale climate signals as rainfall predictors. Due to high effect of different sources of uncertainty on the output of hydrologic models, in the second step uncertainty associated with input data, model parameters and model structure is incorporated in rainfall-runoff modeling and simulation. Three rainfall-runoff simulation models are developed for consideration of model conceptual (structural) uncertainty in real time runoff forecasting. To analyze the uncertainty of the model structure, streamflows generated by alternative rainfall-runoff models are combined, through developing a weighting method based on K-means clustering. Model parameters and input uncertainty are investigated using an adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo method. Finally, calibrated rainfall-runoff models are driven using the forecasted rainfall to predict future runoff for the watershed. The proposed scheme is employed in the case study of the Bronx River watershed, New York City. Results of uncertainty analysis of rainfall-runoff modeling reveal that simultaneous estimation of model parameters and input uncertainty significantly changes the probability distribution of the model parameters. It is also observed that by combining the outputs of the hydrological models using the proposed clustering scheme, the accuracy of runoff simulation in the

  8. RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODELING IN THE TURKEY RIVER USING ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2015-01-15

    Jan 15, 2015 ... Also, by using SPSS software, the regression equations were developed and ... information technology, many rainfall-runoff models have developed. In modeling ... [1] used the Fuzzy logic method in rainfall-runoff modeling. ... artificial neural network had better results than linear transfer function model.

  9. The transferability of hydrological models under nonstationary climatic conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Z. Li

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates issues involved in calibrating hydrological models against observed data when the aim of the modelling is to predict future runoff under different climatic conditions. To achieve this objective, we tested two hydrological models, DWBM and SIMHYD, using data from 30 unimpaired catchments in Australia which had at least 60 yr of daily precipitation, potential evapotranspiration (PET, and streamflow data. Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE, modified index of agreement (d1 and water balance error (WBE were used as performance criteria. We used a differential split-sample test to split up the data into 120 sub-periods and 4 different climatic sub-periods in order to assess how well the calibrated model could be transferred different periods. For each catchment, the models were calibrated for one sub-period and validated on the other three. Monte Carlo simulation was used to explore parameter stability compared to historic climatic variability. The chi-square test was used to measure the relationship between the distribution of the parameters and hydroclimatic variability. The results showed that the performance of the two hydrological models differed and depended on the model calibration. We found that if a hydrological model is set up to simulate runoff for a wet climate scenario then it should be calibrated on a wet segment of the historic record, and similarly a dry segment should be used for a dry climate scenario. The Monte Carlo simulation provides an effective and pragmatic approach to explore uncertainty and equifinality in hydrological model parameters. Some parameters of the hydrological models are shown to be significantly more sensitive to the choice of calibration periods. Our findings support the idea that when using conceptual hydrological models to assess future climate change impacts, a differential split-sample test and Monte Carlo simulation should be used to quantify uncertainties due to

  10. Hydrologic behavior of model slopes with synthetic water repellent soils

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Shuang; Lourenço, Sérgio D. N.; Cleall, Peter J.; Chui, Ting Fong May; Ng, Angel K. Y.; Millis, Stuart W.

    2017-11-01

    In the natural environment, soil water repellency decreases infiltration, increases runoff, and increases erosion in slopes. In the built environment, soil water repellency offers the opportunity to develop granular materials with controllable wettability for slope stabilization. In this paper, the influence of soil water repellency on the hydrological response of slopes is investigated. Twenty-four flume tests were carried out in model slopes under artificial rainfall; soils with various wettability levels were tested, including wettable (Contact Angle, CA 90°). Various rainfall intensities (30 mm/h and 70 mm/h), slope angles (20° and 40°) and relative compactions (70% and 90%) were applied to model the response of natural and man-made slopes to rainfall. To quantitatively assess the hydrological response, a number of measurements were made: runoff rate, effective rainfall rate, time to ponding, time to steady state, runoff acceleration, total water storage and wetting front rate. Overall, an increase in soil water repellency reduces infiltration and shortens the time for runoff generation, with the effects amplified for high rainfall intensity. Comparatively, the slope angle and relative compaction had only a minor contribution to the slope hydrology. The subcritical water repellent soils sustained infiltration for longer than both the wettable and water repellent soils, which presents an added advantage if they are to be used in the built environment as barriers. This study revealed substantial impacts of man-made or synthetically induced soil water repellency on the hydrological behavior of model slopes in controlled conditions. The results shed light on our understanding of hydrological processes in environments where the occurrence of natural soil water repellency is likely, such as slopes subjected to wildfires and in agricultural and forested slopes.

  11. Monthly Water Balance Model Hydrology Futures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bock, Andy; Hay, Lauren E.; Markstrom, Steven; Atkinson, R. Dwight

    2016-01-01

    A monthly water balance model (MWBM) was driven with precipitation and temperature using a station-based dataset for current conditions (1950 to 2010) and selected statistically-downscaled general circulation models (GCMs) for current and future conditions (1950 to 2099) across the conterminous United States (CONUS) using hydrologic response units from the Geospatial Fabric for National Hydrologic Modeling (http://dx.doi.org/doi:10.5066/F7542KMD). Six MWBM output variables (actual evapotranspiration (AET), potential evapotranspiration (PET), runoff (RO), streamflow (STRM), soil moisture storage (SOIL), and snow water equivalent (SWE)) and the two MWBM input variables (atmospheric temperature (TAVE) and precipitation (PPT)) were summarized for hydrologic response units and aggregated at points of interest on a stream network. Results were then organized into the Monthly Water Balance Hydrology Futures database, an open-access database using netCDF format (http://cida-eros-mows1.er.usgs.gov/thredds/dodsC/nwb_pub/).  Methods used to calibrate and parameterize the MWBM are detailed in the Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS)  paper "Parameter regionalization of a monthly water balance model for the conterminous United States" by Bock and others (2016).  See the discussion paper link in the "Related External Resources" section for access.  Supplemental data files related to the plots and data analysis in Bock and others (2016) can be found in the HESS-2015-325.zip folder in the "Attached Files" section.  Detailed information on the files and data can be found in the ReadMe.txt contained within the zipped folder. Recommended citation of discussion paper:Bock, A.R., Hay, L.E., McCabe, G.J., Markstrom, S.L., and Atkinson, R.D., 2016, Parameter regionalization of a monthly water balance model for the conterminous United States: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, v. 20, 2861-2876, doi:10.5194/hess-20-2861-2016, 2016

  12. Stochastic Modelling of Hydrologic Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jonsdottir, Harpa

    2007-01-01

    In this PhD project several stochastic modelling methods are studied and applied on various subjects in hydrology. The research was prepared at Informatics and Mathematical Modelling at the Technical University of Denmark. The thesis is divided into two parts. The first part contains an introduct......In this PhD project several stochastic modelling methods are studied and applied on various subjects in hydrology. The research was prepared at Informatics and Mathematical Modelling at the Technical University of Denmark. The thesis is divided into two parts. The first part contains...... an introduction and an overview of the papers published. Then an introduction to basic concepts in hydrology along with a description of hydrological data is given. Finally an introduction to stochastic modelling is given. The second part contains the research papers. In the research papers the stochastic methods...... are described, as at the time of publication these methods represent new contribution to hydrology. The second part also contains additional description of software used and a brief introduction to stiff systems. The system in one of the papers is stiff....

  13. Optimal land use/land cover classification using remote sensing imagery for hydrological modeling in a Himalayan watersched

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Saran, S.; Sterk, G.; Kumar, S.

    2009-01-01

    Land use/land cover is an important watershed surface characteristic that affects surface runoff and erosion. Many of the available hydrological models divide the watershed into Hydrological Response Units (HRU), which are spatial units with expected similar hydrological behaviours. The division

  14. Optimal land use/cover classification using remote sensing imagery for hydrological modelling in a Himalayan watershed

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sameer Saran,; Sterk, G.; Kumar, S.

    2007-01-01

    Land use/cover is an important watershed surface characteristic that affects surface runoff and erosion. Many of the available hydrological models divide the watershed into Hydrological Response Units (HRU), which are spatial units with expected similar hydrological behaviours. The division into

  15. Rainfall-runoff modelling of Ajay river catchment using SWAT model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kangsabanik, Subhadip; Murmu, Sneha

    2017-05-01

    The present study is based on SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) Model which integrates the GIS information with attribute database to estimate the runoff of Ajay River catchment. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is a physically based distributed parameter model which has been developed to predict runoff, erosion, sediment and nutrient transport from agricultural watersheds under different management practices. The SWAT Model works in conjunction with Arc GIS. In the present study the catchment area has been delineated using the DEM (Digital Elevation Model) and then divided into 19 sub-basins. For preparation of landuse map the IRS-P6 LISS-III image has been used and the soil map is extracted from HWSD (Harmonized World Soil Database) Raster world soil map. The sub basins are further divided into 223 HRUs which stands for Hydrological Response Unit. Then by using 30 years of daily rainfall data and daily maximum and minimum temperature data SWAT simulation is done for daily, monthly and yearly basis to find out Runoff for corresponding Rainfall. The coefficient of correlation (r) for rainfall in a period and the corresponding runoff is found to be 0.9419.

  16. Urban Runoff and Water Quality Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Jong Tae [Kyonggi University, Suwon (Korea)

    1998-12-31

    The characteristics of storm and water quality are investigated based on the measuring data of the test river, the Hongje. The water quality of the test river is generally good comparing to other urban rivers in Seoul, because of the interception of sewer flow. But this system makes the river dry up for 3-4 months in winter. On the other hand, in rainy period the storm from the combined sewer system causes rapid increasing pollutants loads. In order to simulate the urban storm and water quality of the test basin, the models such as SWMM, ILLUDAS, STORM, HEC-1 were applied and the results are compared in its applicability and accuracy aspects. All models discussed here have shown good results and it seems that SWMM is the most effective model in simulating both quantity and quality. Also, regression relations between the water quantity and quality were derived and their applicabilities were discussed. This regression model is a simple effective tool for estimating the pollutant loads in the rainy period, but if the amount of discharge is bigger than measuring range of raw data, the accuracy becomes poor. This model could be supplemented by expanding the range of collecting data and introducing the river characteristics. The HEC-1 would be another effective model to simulate storm runoff of a river basin including urban area. (author). 15 refs., 13 tabs., 13 figs.

  17. Model Calibration in Watershed Hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yilmaz, Koray K.; Vrugt, Jasper A.; Gupta, Hoshin V.; Sorooshian, Soroosh

    2009-01-01

    Hydrologic models use relatively simple mathematical equations to conceptualize and aggregate the complex, spatially distributed, and highly interrelated water, energy, and vegetation processes in a watershed. A consequence of process aggregation is that the model parameters often do not represent directly measurable entities and must, therefore, be estimated using measurements of the system inputs and outputs. During this process, known as model calibration, the parameters are adjusted so that the behavior of the model approximates, as closely and consistently as possible, the observed response of the hydrologic system over some historical period of time. This Chapter reviews the current state-of-the-art of model calibration in watershed hydrology with special emphasis on our own contributions in the last few decades. We discuss the historical background that has led to current perspectives, and review different approaches for manual and automatic single- and multi-objective parameter estimation. In particular, we highlight the recent developments in the calibration of distributed hydrologic models using parameter dimensionality reduction sampling, parameter regularization and parallel computing.

  18. Modeling the hydrological patterns on Pantanal wetlands, Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castro, A. A.; Cuartas, A.; Coe, M. T.; Koumrouyan, A.; Panday, P. K.; Lefebvre, P.; Padovani, C.; Costa, M. H.; de Oliveira, G. S.

    2014-12-01

    The Pantanal of Brazil is one of the world's largest wetland regions. It is located within the 370,000 km2 Alto Paraguai Basin (BAP). In wet years almost 15% of the total area of the basin can be flooded (approximately 53,000 km2). The hydrological cycle is particularly important in the Pantanal in the transport of materials, and the transfer of energy between atmospheric, aquatic, and terrestrial systems. The INLAND (Integrated Land Surface Model) terrestrial ecosystem model is coupled with the THMB hydrological model to examine the hydrological balance and water dynamics for this region. The INLAND model is based on the IBIS dynamic vegetation model, while THMB represents the river, wetland and lake dynamics of the land surface. The modeled hydrological components are validated with surface and satellite-based estimates of precipitation (gridded observations from CRU v. 3.21, reanalysis data from ERA-interim, and TRMM estimates), evapotranspiration (MODIS and Land Flux-Eval dataset), total runoff (discharge data from ANA-Agência Nacional das Águas - Brazil), and terrestrial water storage (GRACE). Results show that the coupled hydrological model adequately represents the water cycle components, the river discharge and flooded areas. Model simulations are further used to study the influences of climatic variations on the hydrological components, river network, and the inundated areas in the Pantanal.

  19. Predicting Surface Runoff from Catchment to Large Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hongxia Li

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Predicting surface runoff from catchment to large region is a fundamental and challenging task in hydrology. This paper presents a comprehensive review for various studies conducted for improving runoff predictions from catchment to large region in the last several decades. This review summarizes the well-established methods and discusses some promising approaches from the following four research fields: (1 modeling catchment, regional and global runoff using lumped conceptual rainfall-runoff models, distributed hydrological models, and land surface models, (2 parameterizing hydrological models in ungauged catchments, (3 improving hydrological model structure, and (4 using new remote sensing precipitation data.

  20. Glacier surface mass balance and freshwater runoff modeling for the entire Andes Cordillera

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mernild, Sebastian H.; Liston, Glen E.; Yde, Jacob C.

    2017-04-01

    Glacier surface mass balance (SMB) observations for the Andes Cordillera are limited and, therefore, estimates of the SMB contribution from South America to sea-level rise are highly uncertain. Here, we simulate meteorological, snow, glacier surface, and hydrological runoff conditions and trends for the Andes Cordillera (1979/80-2013/14), covering the tropical latitudes in the north down to the sub-polar latitudes in the far south, including the Northern Patagonia Ice Field (NPI) and Southern Patagonia Ice Field (SPI). SnowModel - a fully integrated energy balance, blowing-snow distribution, multi-layer snowpack, and runoff routing model - was used to simulate glacier SMBs for the Andes Cordillera. The Randolph Glacier Inventory and NASA Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications products, downscaled in SnowModel, allowed us to conduct relatively high-resolution simulations. The simulated glacier SMBs were verified against independent directly-observed and satellite gravimetry and altimetry-derived SMB, indicating a good statistical agreement. For glaciers in the Andes Cordillera, the 35-year mean annual SMB was found to be -1.13 m water equivalent. For both NPI and SPI, the mean SMB was positive (where calving is the likely reason for explaining why geodetic estimates are negative). Further, the spatio-temporal freshwater river runoff patterns from individual basins, including their runoff magnitude and change, were simulated. For the Andes Cordillera rivers draining to the Pacific Ocean, 86% of the simulated runoff originated from rain, 12% from snowmelt, and 2% from ice melt, whereas, for example, for Chile, the water-source distribution was 69, 24, and 7%, respectively. Along the Andes Cordillera, the 35-year mean basin outlet-specific runoff (L s-1 km-2) showed a characteristic regional hourglass shape pattern with highest runoff in both Colombia and Ecuador and in Patagonia, and lowest runoff in the Atacama Desert area.

  1. The response of runoff generation to urban development: modelling and understanding

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guan, Mingfu; Sillanpää, Nora; Koivusalo, Harri

    2014-05-01

    The urbanisation process strongly changes natural catchment by increasing the impervious coverage and by creating a need for efficient drainage systems, resulting in a significant change of catchment hydrology from extreme floods to low flows. Thus, it is becoming important to quantify the impacts of urbanisation on runoff generation and to investigate the possibility of restoring pre-development flows in urban catchments for integrated urban stormwater management. Urban hydrological modelling emphasising on urbanisation effects has received substantial attention. However, the lack of good quality monitoring data in a same developing catchment limits model calibration for many of previous studies. In this concern, this study aims to describe and better understand the effects of urbanisation on catchment hydrology through modelling of a series of scenarios in a developing urban catchment of Saunalahdenranta (SR). The catchment is located at Espoo, southern Finland and has an area of about 13.2 ha. The catchment was developed rapidly from a rural area to a residential area during 2001-2006. Hydrological data were measured in two minutes intervals during the development period, when the imperviousness of the catchment changed from 1.5% to 37%. Precipitation-runoff relationship is simulated using the Stormwater Management Model (SWMM) that is firstly parameterised, calibrated, and validated for the scenario of highly developed residential catchment in 2006. The hydrological impacts of spatial resolution and model parameters, such as the delineation of subcatchment, flow width as well as Manning's roughness are evaluated and discussed. The calibrated model is then used to investigate, how the hydrological response to urbanisation was changing in the scenarios for the previous years (2001-2005) with different levels of urban development (represented by impervious surfaces). The predictions for the several scenarios provide a quantification of the hydrological impacts of

  2. Future Changes in Surface Runoff over Korea Projected by a Regional Climate Model under A1B Scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ji-Woo Lee

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This study assesses future change of surface runoff due to climate change over Korea using a regional climate model (RCM, namely, the Global/Regional Integrated Model System (GRIMs, Regional Model Program (RMP. The RMP is forced by future climate scenario, namely, A1B of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4. The RMP satisfactorily reproduces the observed seasonal mean and variation of surface runoff for the current climate simulation. The distribution of monsoonal precipitation-related runoff is adequately captured by the RMP. In the future (2040–2070 simulation, it is shown that the increasing trend of temperature has significant impacts on the intra-annual runoff variation. The variability of runoff is increased in summer; moreover, the strengthened possibility of extreme occurrence is detected in the future climate. This study indicates that future climate projection, including surface runoff and its variability over Korea, can be adequately addressed on the RMP testbed. Furthermore, this study reflects that global warming affects local hydrological cycle by changing major water budget components. This study adduces that the importance of runoff should not be overlooked in regional climate studies, and more elaborate presentation of fresh-water cycle is needed to close hydrological circulation in RCMs.

  3. Multi-model ensemble simulation of runoff in the Chao River Basin, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Y.; Duan, Q.

    2016-12-01

    It is important to obtain reliable prediction of runoff in semi-humid area in the context of climate change. This paper studies the use of Bayesian model averaging (BMA) to improve prediction skills of runoff based on several hydrologic models in Chao River Basin, China. The performance of Xinanjiang Model, Saracmento Model (SAC), Distributed Time Variant Gain Model (DTVGM) and the models from the structure for unifying multiple modeling alternatives (SUMMA) were evaluated, and the results show that the SAC model was more skillful than other models. Then an ensemble generated by using BMA method, which is generally superior to that of the best individual predictions with higher Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE) and daily root mean square error (DRMS). Furthermore, the results from BMA had a better ability to simulate the peak value, which would be essential for the mitigation of flood and water management.

  4. Using Modeling Tools to Better Understand Permafrost Hydrology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Clément Fabre

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Modification of the hydrological cycle and, subsequently, of other global cycles is expected in Arctic watersheds owing to global change. Future climate scenarios imply widespread permafrost degradation caused by an increase in air temperature, and the expected effect on permafrost hydrology is immense. This study aims at analyzing, and quantifying the daily water transfer in the largest Arctic river system, the Yenisei River in central Siberia, Russia, partially underlain by permafrost. The semi-distributed SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool hydrological model has been calibrated and validated at a daily time step in historical discharge simulations for the 2003–2014 period. The model parameters have been adjusted to embrace the hydrological features of permafrost. SWAT is shown capable to estimate water fluxes at a daily time step, especially during unfrozen periods, once are considered specific climatic and soils conditions adapted to a permafrost watershed. The model simulates average annual contribution to runoff of 263 millimeters per year (mm yr−1 distributed as 152 mm yr−1 (58% of surface runoff, 103 mm yr−1 (39% of lateral flow and 8 mm yr−1 (3% of return flow from the aquifer. These results are integrated on a reduced basin area downstream from large dams and are closer to observations than previous modeling exercises.

  5. Spatially Distributed Assimilation of Remotely Sensed Leaf Area Index and Potential Evapotranspiration for Hydrologic Modeling in Wetland Landscapes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evapotranspiration (ET), a highly dynamic flux in wetland landscapes, regulates the accuracy of surface/sub-surface runoff simulation in a hydrologic model. However, considerable uncertainty in simulating ET-related processes remains, including our limited ability to incorporate ...

  6. Modeling the climate change impact on snow and runoff in the alpine space

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bavay, M.; Gruenewald, T.; Magnusson, J.; Lehning, M.

    2011-12-01

    The snow cover in the Alps is heavily affected by climate change. Recent data show that at altitudes below 1200 m a.s.l. a time-continuous winter snow cover is becoming an exception rather than the rule. This will also change the timing and characteristics of river runoff in Alpine catchments. A numerical study of the impact of climate change on hydrological discharge has been conducted using Alpine3D, a model for the high resolution simulation of alpine surface processes, in particular snow, soil and vegetation processes. We present here an assessment of future snow and runoff in the Swiss Canton of Grisons running the model with a 200 m resolution. The canton has been divided into more than 45 catchments, each having their individual hydrological response split between rain, snow melt and glacier melt, both for a reference period and several climate change scenarios for 2050 and 2095. The catchment hierarchy allows the analysis of alpine headwater catchments as well as the comparative assessment of the larger scale response at larger rivers and lower altitudes. The data from more than 35 Automatic Weather Stations have been used for the reference scenario and modified for building the climate change scenario. The predicted changes in snow and runoff are drastic in the headwater catchments. While the current climate still supports permanent snow and ice at the altitudes of the highest peaks above 3000 m a.s.l., this zone will disappear under the future climate and smaller glaciers will fully melt. The hydrology of small, relatively high elevations will show significantly more winter runoff, earlier spring melt peaks and reduced summer runoff while larger, lower elevation catchments will show much smaller changes, since they are already now dominated by summer precipitation. It is important to realize that total water availability will decrease due to a significantly increased evapotranspiration. This has important consequences for irrigation and hydropower

  7. Hydrological modelling in forested systems | Science ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    This chapter provides a brief overview of forest hydrology modelling approaches for answering important global research and management questions. Many hundreds of hydrological models have been applied globally across multiple decades to represent and predict forest hydrological processes. The focus of this chapter is on process-based models and approaches, specifically 'forest hydrology models'; that is, physically based simulation tools that quantify compartments of the forest hydrological cycle. Physically based models can be considered those that describe the conservation of mass, momentum and/or energy. The purpose of this chapter is to provide a brief overview of forest hydrology modeling approaches for answering important global research and management questions. The focus of this chapter is on process-based models and approaches, specifically “forest hydrology models”, i.e., physically-based simulation tools that quantify compartments of the forest hydrological cycle.

  8. Integrated climate and hydrology modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Morten Andreas Dahl

    To ensure optimal management and sustainable strategies for water resources, infrastructures, food production and ecosystems there is a need for an improved understanding of feedback and interaction mechanisms between the atmosphere and the land surface. This is especially true in light of expected...... global warming and increased frequency of extreme events. The skill in developing projections of both the present and future climate depends essentially on the ability to numerically simulate the processes of atmospheric circulation, hydrology, energy and ecology. Previous modelling efforts of climate...... and hydrology models to more directly include the interaction between the atmosphere and the land surface. The present PhD study is motivated by an ambition of developing and applying a modelling tool capable of including the interaction and feedback mechanisms between the atmosphere and the land surface...

  9. Does model performance improve with complexity? A case study with three hydrological models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orth, Rene; Staudinger, Maria; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Seibert, Jan; Zappa, Massimiliano

    2015-04-01

    In recent decades considerable progress has been made in climate model development. Following the massive increase in computational power, models became more sophisticated. At the same time also simple conceptual models have advanced. In this study we validate and compare three hydrological models of different complexity to investigate whether their performance varies accordingly. For this purpose we use runoff and also soil moisture measurements, which allow a truly independent validation, from several sites across Switzerland. The models are calibrated in similar ways with the same runoff data. Our results show that the more complex models HBV and PREVAH outperform the simple water balance model (SWBM) in case of runoff but not for soil moisture. Furthermore the most sophisticated PREVAH model shows an added value compared to the HBV model only in case of soil moisture. Focusing on extreme events we find generally improved performance of the SWBM during drought conditions and degraded agreement with observations during wet extremes. For the more complex models we find the opposite behavior, probably because they were primarily developed for prediction of runoff extremes. As expected given their complexity, HBV and PREVAH have more problems with over-fitting. All models show a tendency towards better performance in lower altitudes as opposed to (pre-) alpine sites. The results vary considerably across the investigated sites. In contrast, the different metrics we consider to estimate the agreement between models and observations lead to similar conclusions, indicating that the performance of the considered models is similar at different time scales as well as for anomalies and long-term means. We conclude that added complexity does not necessarily lead to improved performance of hydrological models, and that performance can vary greatly depending on the considered hydrological variable (e.g. runoff vs. soil moisture) or hydrological conditions (floods vs. droughts).

  10. Socio-hydrological flood models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barendrecht, Marlies; Viglione, Alberto; Blöschl, Günter

    2017-04-01

    Long-term feedbacks between humans and floods may lead to complex phenomena such as coping strategies, levee effects, call effects, adaptation effects, and poverty traps. Such phenomena cannot be represented by traditional flood risk approaches that are based on scenarios. Instead, dynamic models of the coupled human-flood interactions are needed. These types of models should include both social and hydrological variables as well as other relevant variables, such as economic, environmental, political or technical, in order to adequately represent the feedbacks and processes that are of importance in human-flood systems. These socio-hydrological models may play an important role in integrated flood risk management by exploring a wider range of possible futures, including unexpected phenomena, than is possible by creating and studying scenarios. New insights might come to light about the long term effects of certain measures on society and the natural system. Here we discuss a dynamic framework for flood risk and review the models that are presented in literature. We propose a way forward for socio-hydrological modelling of the human-flood system.

  11. Drivers of actual evapotranspiration and runoff in East Africa during the mid-Holocene: assessments from an ecosystem model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fer, Istem; Jeltsch, Florian; Tietjen, Britta; Trauth, Martin

    2014-05-01

    Understanding the evolution and response of the hydrological cycle under changing climate is of vital importance for human populations all around the world. Especially so in regions like East Africa, where society largely depends on the availability of water and the hydrologic conditions are highly sensitive to changes in the distribution and amount of precipitation. In this endeavor, studying past hydrological changes provides us realistic scenarios and data to better understand and predict the extent of the future hydrological changes. However while studying the past, paleovegetation, which plays a pivotal role in the paleo-hydrological cycle, is difficult to determine from fossil pollen records as pollen data can provide very limited information on spatial distribution and composition of the vegetation cover. Here ecosystem models driven by paleo-climate conditions can provide spatially-extensive information on the coupled dynamics of past vegetation and hydrological measures such as actual evapotranspiration (AET), potential evapotranspiration (PET) and runoff. In this study, we looked at AET and runoff estimates of an ecosystem model as these are important elements of water transfer in the hydrological cycle and critical for water balance calculations. We applied the ecosystem model, LPJ-GUESS, for present-day with data from Climatic Research Unit CRU TS3.20 climate dataset, and for mid-Holocene (6 kyrs BP) with data from an atmosphere-ocean coupled global climate model EC-Earth. Climate data for both periods were downscaled to a 10 arc min resolution in order to better resolve the impacts of the complex topography on vegetation distribution, AET and runoff. Comparison of the simulated AET and runoff values for East Africa, show similar patterns as annual AET estimates for the period 1961-1990 by Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), and with the observed runoff data from Cogley (1998), respectively. Comparison of simulated present

  12. Distributed Hydrologic Modeling of the Upper Roanoke River Watershed using GIS and NEXRAD

    OpenAIRE

    McCormick, Brian Christopher

    2003-01-01

    Precipitation and surface runoff producing mechanisms are inherently spatially variable. Many hydrologic runoff models do not account for this spatial variability and instead use "lumped" or spatially averaged parameters. Lumped model parameters often must be developed empirically or through optimization rather than be calculated from field measurements or existing data. Recent advances in geographic information systems (GIS) remote sensing (RS), radar measurement of precipitation, and des...

  13. Effects of Land Use Changes on the Runoff in the Landscape Based on Hydrological Simulation in HEC-HMS and HEC-RAS Using Different Elevation Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Josef Divín

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to determine the effects of land use changes on the runoff in the landscape by means of hydrological modelling. Our partial aim is also to determine the effect of different elevation data and define optimal data sources for this modelling. The research was conducted on the Starozuberský stream experimental watershed. For comparing elevation models, three scenarios were developed with different input data. Based on a comparison of these models an optimal data source for hydrological modelling was selected. To simulate the change in land use, we have created two scenarios based either upon the current land use and historical data from the fifties of the twentieth century. Comparison was carried out using the HEC-HMS software interface for rainfall-runoff simulation and HEC-RAS for the flooding simulation. Data for the simulation were prepared using the ESRI ArcGIS extensions, namely HEC- GeoHMS and HEC-GeoRAS.

  14. Modeling and assessing the effects of land use changes on runoff generation with the CLUE-s and WetSpa models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohammady, Majid; Moradi, Hamid Reza; Zeinivand, Hossein; Temme, A. J. A. M.; Yazdani, Mohammad Reza; Pourghasemi, Hamid Reza

    2017-06-01

    Land use change is an important determinant of hydrological processes and is known to affect hydrological parameters such as runoff volume, flood frequency, base flow, and the partitioning into surface flow and subsurface flow. The main objective of this research was to assess the magnitude of the effect of land use changes on runoff parameters, using the Baghsalian watershed in Iran as a case study site. At first, land use maps of years 1986 and 2012 were prepared using synthetic method, and then simulation was done based on land use changes in the 1986 to 2012 period. Land use map of year 2030 was simulated using CLUE-s model. Spatially distributed hydrological WetSpa model was used to simulate runoff at daily scale with land use maps of 1986, 2012, and 2030. Total volume of runoff, peak flow, and surface flow were compared. The accuracy of the WetSpa model simulation was assessed with the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, which had values of 0.61 and 0.56% for the calibration and validation dataset, respectively. The aggregation measure criterion was also calculated and had values of 64 and 62% for the calibration and validation periods, respectively. The main land use changes in Baghsalian watershed between 1986, 2012, and 2030 were the conversion of forest and rangeland to agriculture and residential land use types. Because of these conversions, simulated total runoff volume increased; and the rate of increase in surface runoff was larger than the rate of increase in subsurface runoff. In addition, surface and subsurface runoff increased in 2012 and 2030 compared to 1986 land use map, but the rate of increase of subsurface runoff was less than surface runoff.

  15. airGRteaching: an R-package designed for teaching hydrology with lumped hydrological models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thirel, Guillaume; Delaigue, Olivier; Coron, Laurent; Andréassian, Vazken; Brigode, Pierre

    2017-04-01

    Lumped hydrological models are useful and convenient tools for research, engineering and educational purposes. They propose catchment-scale representations of the precipitation-discharge relationship. Thanks to their limited data requirements, they can be easily implemented and run. With such models, it is possible to simulate a number of hydrological key processes over the catchment with limited structural and parametric complexity, typically evapotranspiration, runoff, underground losses, etc. The Hydrology Group at Irstea (Antony) has been developing a suite of rainfall-runoff models over the past 30 years. This resulted in a suite of models running at different time steps (from hourly to annual) applicable for various issues including water balance estimation, forecasting, simulation of impacts and scenario testing. Recently, Irstea has developed an easy-to-use R-package (R Core Team, 2016), called airGR (Coron et al., 2016, 2017), to make these models widely available. Although its initial target public was hydrological modellers, the package is already used for educational purposes. Indeed, simple models allow for rapidly visualising the effects of parameterizations and model components on flows hydrographs. In order to avoid the difficulties that students may have when manipulating R and datasets, we developed (Delaigue and Coron, 2016): - Three simplified functions to prepare data, calibrate a model and run a simulation - Simplified and dynamic plot functions - A shiny (Chang et al., 2016) interface that connects this R-package to a browser-based visualisation tool. On this interface, the students can use different hydrological models (including the possibility to use a snow-accounting model), manually modify their parameters and automatically calibrate their parameters with diverse objective functions. One of the visualisation tabs of the interface includes observed precipitation and temperature, simulated snowpack (if any), observed and simulated

  16. The value of snow data assimilation for runoff modeling in alpine catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griessinger, Nena; Jonas, Tobias; Seibert, Jan

    2016-04-01

    Snowmelt provides a dominant contribution to runoff and groundwater storages in mountainous regions, where, therefore, modeling snow processes is crucial for resource management as well as for flood or drought forecasting. Erroneous simulations of snow accumulation can bias the amount and timing of snowmelt simulations and thus impact runoff modeling. In this study, we address the question, whether the performance of a runoff model can be enhanced by integrating data from a dedicated external snow monitoring system. As a framework for our tests we used the hydrological model HBV (in the version HBVlight), which originally follows a temperature index approach with time-invariant calibrated degree-day factors to represent snowmelt. We modified HBV to use snowmelt time series from an external and spatially distributed snow model as alternative model input. The external snow model integrates three-dimensional sequential assimilation of snow monitoring data with a snowmelt model also based on the temperature index approach, but uses a time-variant degree-day factor. The following three variations of this external snow model were applied: a) the full model with assimilation of observational snow data from a dense monitoring network, b) the same snow model but with data assimilation switched off, c) a downgraded version of the same snow model representing snowmelt with a time-invariant degree-day factor. Model runs were conducted for 20 catchments at different elevations within Switzerland for 15 years. Our results show that at low and mid elevations the performance of the runoff simulations did not vary considerably with the snow model version chosen. At higher elevations, however, best performance in terms of simulated runoff was obtained when using the snowmelt time series from the snow model which utilized data assimilation. Considerably higher performance metrics for snow-rich years than for years with low snow amounts were demonstrated. These findings suggest that

  17. Attribution of hydrologic trends using integrated hydrologic and economic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maneta, M. P.; Brugger, D. R.; Silverman, N. L.

    2014-12-01

    Hydrologic change has been detected in many regions of the world in the form of trends in annual streamflows, varying depths to the regional water table, or other alterations of the hydrologic balance. Most models used to investigate these changes implement sophisticated descriptions of the physical system but use simplified descriptions of the socioeconomic system. These simplifications come in the form of prescribed water diversions and land use change scenarios, which provide little insight into coupled natural-human systems and have limited predictive capabilities. We present an integrated model that adds realism to the description of the hydrologic system in agricultural regions by incorporating a component that updates the allocation of land and water to crops in response to hydroclimatic (water available) and economic conditions (prices of commodities and agricultural inputs). This component assumes that farmers allocate resources to maximize their net revenues, thus justifying the use of optimality conditions to constrain the parameters of an empirical production function that captures the economic behavior of farmers. Because the model internalizes the feedback between climate, agricultural markets, and farming activity into the hydrologic system, it can be used to understand to what extent human economic activity can exacerbate or buffer the regional hydrologic impacts of climate change in agricultural regions. It can also help in the attribution of causes of hydrologic change. These are important issues because local policy and management cannot solve climate change, but they can address land use and agricultural water use. We demonstrate the model in a case study.

  18. Groundwater modelling in conceptual hydrological models - introducing space

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boje, Søren; Skaugen, Thomas; Møen, Knut; Myrabø, Steinar

    2017-04-01

    The tiny Sæternbekken Minifelt (Muren) catchment (7500 m2) in Bærumsmarka, Norway, was during the 1990s, densely instrumented with more than a 100 observation points for measuring groundwater levels. The aim was to investigate the link between shallow groundwater dynamics and runoff. The DDD (Distance Distribution Dynamics) model is a newly developed rainfall-runoff model used operationally by the Norwegian Flood-Forecasting service at NVE. The model estimates the capacity of the subsurface reservoir at different levels of saturation and predicts overland flow. The subsurface in the DDD model has a 2-D representation that calculates the saturated and unsaturated soil moisture along a hillslope representing the entire catchment in question. The groundwater observations from more than two decades ago are used to verify assumptions of the subsurface reservoir in the DDD model and to validate its spatial representation of the subsurface reservoir. The Muren catchment will, during 2017, be re-instrumented in order to continue the work to bridge the gap between conceptual hydrological models, with typically single value or 0-dimension representation of the subsurface, and models with more realistic 2- or 3-dimension representation of the subsurface.

  19. Assessing the benefit of snow data assimilation for runoff modeling in Alpine catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griessinger, Nena; Seibert, Jan; Magnusson, Jan; Jonas, Tobias

    2016-09-01

    In Alpine catchments, snowmelt is often a major contribution to runoff. Therefore, modeling snow processes is important when concerned with flood or drought forecasting, reservoir operation and inland waterway management. In this study, we address the question of how sensitive hydrological models are to the representation of snow cover dynamics and whether the performance of a hydrological model can be enhanced by integrating data from a dedicated external snow monitoring system. As a framework for our tests we have used the hydrological model HBV (Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning) in the version HBV-light, which has been applied in many hydrological studies and is also in use for operational purposes. While HBV originally follows a temperature-index approach with time-invariant calibrated degree-day factors to represent snowmelt, in this study the HBV model was modified to use snowmelt time series from an external and spatially distributed snow model as model input. The external snow model integrates three-dimensional sequential assimilation of snow monitoring data with a snowmelt model, which is also based on the temperature-index approach but uses a time-variant degree-day factor. The following three variations of this external snow model were applied: (a) the full model with assimilation of observational snow data from a dense monitoring network, (b) the same snow model but with data assimilation switched off and (c) a downgraded version of the same snow model representing snowmelt with a time-invariant degree-day factor. Model runs were conducted for 20 catchments at different elevations within Switzerland for 15 years. Our results show that at low and mid-elevations the performance of the runoff simulations did not vary considerably with the snow model version chosen. At higher elevations, however, best performance in terms of simulated runoff was obtained when using the snowmelt time series from the snow model, which utilized data assimilation

  20. Habitat complexity influences fine scale hydrological processes and the incidence of stormwater runoff in managed urban ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ossola, Alessandro; Hahs, Amy Kristin; Livesley, Stephen John

    2015-08-15

    Urban ecosystems have traditionally been considered to be pervious features of our cities. Their hydrological properties have largely been investigated at the landscape scale and in comparison with other urban land use types. However, hydrological properties can vary at smaller scales depending upon changes in soil, surface litter and vegetation components. Management practices can directly and indirectly affect each of these components and the overall habitat complexity, ultimately affecting hydrological processes. This study aims to investigate the influence that habitat components and habitat complexity have upon key hydrological processes and the implications for urban habitat management. Using a network of urban parks and remnant nature reserves in Melbourne, Australia, replicate plots representing three types of habitat complexity were established: low-complexity parks, high-complexity parks, and high-complexity remnants. Saturated soil hydraulic conductivity in low-complexity parks was an order of magnitude lower than that measured in the more complex habitat types, due to fewer soil macropores. Conversely, soil water holding capacity in low-complexity parks was significantly higher compared to the two more complex habitat types. Low-complexity parks would generate runoff during modest precipitation events, whereas high-complexity parks and remnants would be able to absorb the vast majority of rainfall events without generating runoff. Litter layers on the soil surface would absorb most of precipitation events in high-complexity parks and high-complexity remnants. To minimize the incidence of stormwater runoff from urban ecosystems, land managers could incrementally increase the complexity of habitat patches, by increasing canopy density and volume, preserving surface litter and maintaining soil macropore structure. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Spatio-temporal precipitation error propagation in runoff modelling: a case study in central Sweden

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Olsson

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The propagation of spatio-temporal errors in precipitation estimates to runoff errors in the output from the conceptual hydrological HBV model was investigated. The study region was the Gimån catchment in central Sweden, and the period year 2002. Five precipitation sources were considered: NWP model (H22, weather radar (RAD, precipitation gauges (PTH, and two versions of a mesoscale analysis system (M11, M22. To define the baseline estimates of precipitation and runoff, used to define seasonal precipitation and runoff biases, the mesoscale climate analysis M11 was used. The main precipitation biases were a systematic overestimation of precipitation by H22, in particular during winter and early spring, and a pronounced local overestimation by RAD during autumn, in the western part of the catchment. These overestimations in some cases exceeded 50% in terms of seasonal subcatchment relative accumulated volume bias, but generally the bias was within ±20%. The precipitation data from the different sources were used to drive the HBV model, set up and calibrated for two stations in Gimån, both for continuous simulation during 2002 and for forecasting of the spring flood peak. In summer, autumn and winter all sources agreed well. In spring H22 overestimated the accumulated runoff volume by ~50% and peak discharge by almost 100%, owing to both overestimated snow depth and precipitation during the spring flood. PTH overestimated spring runoff volumes by ~15% owing to overestimated winter precipitation. The results demonstrate how biases in precipitation estimates may exhibit a substantial space-time variability, and may further become either magnified or reduced when applied for hydrological purposes, depending on both temporal and spatial variations in the catchment. Thus, the uncertainty in precipitation estimates should preferably be specified as a function of both time and space.

  2. On the hydrologic adjustment of climate-model projections: The potential pitfall of potential evapotranspiration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milly, P.C.D.; Dunne, K.A.

    2011-01-01

    Hydrologic models often are applied to adjust projections of hydroclimatic change that come from climate models. Such adjustment includes climate-bias correction, spatial refinement ("downscaling"), and consideration of the roles of hydrologic processes that were neglected in the climate model. Described herein is a quantitative analysis of the effects of hydrologic adjustment on the projections of runoff change associated with projected twenty-first-century climate change. In a case study including three climate models and 10 river basins in the contiguous United States, the authors find that relative (i.e., fractional or percentage) runoff change computed with hydrologic adjustment more often than not was less positive (or, equivalently, more negative) than what was projected by the climate models. The dominant contributor to this decrease in runoff was a ubiquitous change in runoff (median 211%) caused by the hydrologic model's apparent amplification of the climate-model-implied growth in potential evapotranspiration. Analysis suggests that the hydrologic model, on the basis of the empirical, temperature-based modified Jensen-Haise formula, calculates a change in potential evapotranspiration that is typically 3 times the change implied by the climate models, which explicitly track surface energy budgets. In comparison with the amplification of potential evapotranspiration, central tendencies of other contributions from hydrologic adjustment (spatial refinement, climate-bias adjustment, and process refinement) were relatively small. The authors' findings highlight the need for caution when projecting changes in potential evapotranspiration for use in hydrologic models or drought indices to evaluate climatechange impacts on water. Copyright ?? 2011, Paper 15-001; 35,952 words, 3 Figures, 0 Animations, 1 Tables.

  3. Should the landscape or the modeler define hydrological model structure? (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weiler, M.

    2009-12-01

    In most applications of hydrological models the same model structure is applied everywhere even though the model is unable to provide a faithful description of all occurring hydrological processes. Insights gained from experimental hydrology are rarely used directly to define the structure of hydrological models. Instead, more complex, distributed physically-based models use simple look-up tables to relate the parameters of each structural model element to soil and land-cover information without sufficiently evaluating these relationships. Still, the models are expected to generate the correct processes pattern within the landscape based on the fixed model structure with local parameterization. However, as for example the generation of surface runoff shows, the resulting pattern of the process is often incorrect because the model fails to predict the variable dynamics of soil saturation correctly. Another approach could be to have the landscape and climate define the model structure and hence directly guide selection and description of relevant hydrological processes. From our long experience in experimental hydrology we have collected a wealth of knowledge and data to predict, for example, if a specific hillslope that has developed over a known geologic formation within a specific climate generates surface or subsurface runoff during a storm. If we are able to predict the location of dominating hydrological processes based on landscape information, we could use this “map” of hydrological processes to define or adjust the model structure representing a specific process. This approach would be particularly powerful in ungauged basins. This contribution will compare the two approaches, introduce different methods how landscape can define model structure, and discuss strategies to identify regional differences in perceptual models and to determine the suitability of different model structures in different regions.

  4. Modelling hydrological processes at different scales across Russian permafrost domain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Makarieva, Olga; Lebedeva, Lyudmila; Nesterova, Natalia; Vinogradova, Tatyana

    2017-04-01

    The project aims to study the interactions between permafrost and runoff generation processes across Russian Arctic domain based on hydrological modelling. The uniqueness of the approach is a unified modelling framework which allows for coupled simulations of upper permafrost dynamics and streamflow generation at different scales (from soil column to large watersheds). The base of the project is hydrological model Hydrograph (Vinogradov et al. 2011, Semenova et al. 2013, 2015; Lebedeva et al., 2015). The model algorithms combine physically-based and conceptual approaches for the description of land hydrological cycle processes, which allows for maintaining a balance between the complexity of model design and the use of limited input information. The method for modeling heat dynamics in soil is integrated into the model. Main parameters of the model are the physical properties of landscapes that may be measured (observed) in nature and are classified according to the types of soil, vegetation and other characteristics. A set of parameters specified in the studied catchments (basins analog) can be transferred to ungauged basins with similar types of the underlying surface without calibration. The results of modelling from small research watersheds to large poorly gauged river basins in different climate and landscape settings of Russian Arctic (within the Yenisey, Lena, Yana, Indigirka, Kolyma rivers basins) will be presented. Based on gained experience methodological aspects of hydrological modelling approaches in permafrost environment will be discussed. The study is partially supported by Russian Foundation for Basic Research, projects 16-35-50151 and 17-05-01138.

  5. Assessment of Noah land surface model with various runoff parameterizations over a Tibetan river

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Donghai; Van Der Velde, Rogier; Su, Zhongbo; Wen, Jun; Wang, Xin

    2017-02-01

    Runoff parameterizations currently adopted by the (i) Noah-MP model, (ii) Community Land Model (CLM), and (iii) CLM with variable infiltration capacity hydrology (CLM-VIC) are incorporated into the structure of Noah land surface model, and the impact of these parameterizations on the runoff simulations is investigated for a Tibetan river. Four numerical experiments are conducted with the default Noah and three aforementioned runoff parameterizations. Each experiment is forced with the same set of atmospheric forcing, vegetation, and soil parameters. In addition, the Community Earth System Model database provides the maximum surface saturated area parameter for the Noah-MP and CLM parameterizations. A single-year recurrent spin-up is adopted for the initialization of each model run to achieve equilibrium states. Comparison with discharge measurements shows that each runoff parameterization produces significant differences in the separation of total runoff into surface and subsurface components and that the soil water storage-based parameterizations (Noah and CLM-VIC) outperform the groundwater table-based parameterizations (Noah-MP and CLM) for the seasonally frozen and high-altitude Tibetan river. A parameter sensitivity experiment illustrates that this underperformance of the groundwater table-based parameterizations cannot be resolved through calibration. Further analyses demonstrate that the simulations of other surface water and energy budget components are insensitive to the selected runoff parameterizations, due to the strong control of the atmosphere on simulated land surface fluxes induced by the diurnal dependence of the roughness length for heat transfer and the large water retention capacity of the highly organic top soils over the plateau.

  6. Case study for the identification and evaluation of rainfall-runoff models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaleris, Vassilios; Langousis, Andreas

    2014-05-01

    We investigate the modeling assumptions used in two rainfall-runoff models, namely the model ENNS (Nachtnebel et al., 1993) and the model MIKE SHE (http://www.dhigroup.com/), and study how those assumptions affect the effectiveness and quality of model fitting and runoff simulation. To avoid artificial effects caused by simplifications in the equations used in ENNS for the calculation of the outflow from two-outlet linear reservoirs, a new version of the ENNS code is developed that is fully compatible with the corresponding equations used in MIKE SHE. The two models are applied in a real-word case study, using 19-year long historical time-series of daily precipitation, temperature and runoff from Glafkos river basin. The latter is located near the city of Patras, in Peloponnese, Greece. Both models are manually calibrated using five years of the available data, whereas the remaining part of the data is used for model validation. The effectiveness of the models to simulate the runoff process is evaluated using (a) the relative model bias, (b) the criterion of Nash and Sutcliffe (N-S) and (c) the modified N-S-criterion calculated using the logarithmically or square root transformed observed and simulated flows. While both models describe the base- and inter-flow hydrological processes using the same conceptual model of linear reservoirs, they use different modeling assumptions to describe surface runoff and infiltration through the unsaturated zone. To that extent, the presented comparison sheds light to (a) the effectiveness of each modeling assumption to describe surface runoff and infiltration through the unsaturated zone, (b) the quality of model calibration, and (c) the optimality and robustness of the estimated parameters, common to the two models (thickness of the unsaturated zone, water content, field capacity, wilting point etc.). Differences in the simulated surface runoff, the infiltration and other runoff components, are not caused solely by the different

  7. Computational Intelligence in Rainfall-Runoff Modeling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    De Vos, N.J.

    2009-01-01

    The transformation from precipitation over a river basin to river streamflow is the result of many interacting processes which manifest themselves at various scales of time and space. The resulting complexity of hydrological systems, and the difficulty to properly and quantitatively express the

  8. Simulation of daily streamflows at gaged and ungaged locations within the Cedar River Basin, Iowa, using a Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christiansen, Daniel E.

    2012-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Iowa Department of Natural Resources, conducted a study to examine techniques for estimation of daily streamflows using hydrological models and statistical methods. This report focuses on the use of a hydrologic model, the U.S. Geological Survey's Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System, to estimate daily streamflows at gaged and ungaged locations. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System is a modular, physically based, distributed-parameter modeling system developed to evaluate the impacts of various combinations of precipitation, climate, and land use on surface-water runoff and general basin hydrology. The Cedar River Basin was selected to construct a Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model that simulates the period from January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2010. The calibration period was from January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2004, and the validation periods were from January 1, 2005, to December 31, 2010 and January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2010. A Geographic Information System tool was used to delineate the Cedar River Basin and subbasins for the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model and to derive parameters based on the physical geographical features. Calibration of the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model was completed using a U.S. Geological Survey calibration software tool. The main objective of the calibration was to match the daily streamflow simulated by the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model with streamflow measured at U.S. Geological Survey streamflow gages. The Cedar River Basin daily streamflow model performed with a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency ranged from 0.82 to 0.33 during the calibration period, and a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency ranged from 0.77 to -0.04 during the validation period. The Cedar River Basin model is meeting the criteria of greater than 0.50 Nash-Sutcliffe and is a good fit for streamflow conditions for the calibration period at all but one location, Austin, Minnesota

  9. Runoff modeling of the Mara River using satellite observed soil ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Hydrological models are essential in water resources management. However modeling in poorly gauged catchments is a big challenge. Recent studies have shown that satellite based hydrological and meteorological data has the potential of being part of the solution towards overcoming this challenge. In this study, we ...

  10. Modeled and measured linkages between glaciers, permafrost and hydrology in a subarctic watershed, Interior Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaedeke, A.; Liljedahl, A. K.; O'Neel, S.; Douglas, T. A.; Gatesman, T.; Daanen, R. P.; Zhang, J.; Campbell, S. W.

    2016-12-01

    Hydrological processes in subarctic, mountainous, glacierized watersheds are highly variable (seasonally and spatially) and are particularly vulnerable to climate change. Here, we combine field measurements and hydrological modeling to address the effects of altered glacier melt on lowland runoff, regional groundwater recharge/storage and permafrost distribution. Jarvis Creek watershed (630 km2), a headwater basin of the Tanana River (12,000 km2), in semi-arid Interior Alaska serves as our study area. The process-based, spatially distributed hydrological model WaSiM was utilized to simulate all aspects of the water cycle, including glacier melt, dynamic glacier coverage, seasonal soil freeze and thaw and permafrost. Downscaled regional climate scenarios force WaSiM for long-term climate change impact assessment. Field measurements (differential runoff, glacier mass balance, end-of-winter snow depths, soil temperature, and meteorology) are used to parameterize, calibrate and validate WaSiM. Our field measurements and modeling results indicate that Jarvis Creek, which is fed by on average 1/3 glacier runoff during summer, loses considerable amount of runoff to the regional aquifer. The aquifer, in turn, feeds the larger scale river system (Tanana River) throughout the year, which is especially prominent during winter when all overland runoff ceases and surface waters are covered with ice. Measured annual runoff increased from the nearby Gulkana Glacier during the last 50 years, which is consistent with an 11% decrease in glacier coverage (1950-2010) within the Tanana River basin. Glacier runoff is likely to continue to increase until glaciers recede to higher and cooler elevation. The changes in glacier runoff do not only affect the headwater streams (Jarvis Creek), but also the larger scale hydrological regime such as aquifer storage and release, long-term trends in winter baseflow of Tanana River and permafrost distribution.

  11. Global Sensitivity Analysis of the WASIM hydrological model using VARS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rehan Anis, Muhammad; Haghnegahdar, Amin; Razavi, Saman; Wheater, Howard

    2017-04-01

    Sensitivity analysis (SA) aims to identify the key parameters that affect model performance and it plays an important role in model understanding, calibration, and uncertainty quantification. The increasing complexity of physically-based hydrological models warrants application of comprehensive SA methods for an improved and effective application of hydrological modeling. This study aims to provide a comprehensive sensitivity assessment of WaSiM (Richards version 9.03) hydrological model using a novel and efficient global SA technique Variogram Analysis of Response Surface (VARS), at the experimental Schaefertal catchment (1.44 Km2) in lower Harz Mountains Germany. WaSiM is a distributed hydrological model that can simulate surface and sub-surface flows at various spatial and temporal scales. VARS is a variogram-based framework for global SA that can characterize the full spectrum of sensitivity-related information, thereby providing a comprehensive set of "global" sensitivity metrics with minimal computational cost. Our preliminary SA results show that simulated streamflows in WaSim-ETH are most sensitive to precipitation correction factor followed by parameters related to the snowmelt and flow density. We aim to expand this sensitivity assessment by conducting a more comprehensive global SA with more than 70 parameters from various model components corresponding to interception, infiltration, evapotranspiration, snowmelt, and runoff. This will enable us to provide an enhanced understanding of WaSiM structure and identify dominant controls of its behavior that can be utilized to reduce model prediction uncertainty and reduce parameters needed for calibration.

  12. Rainfall runoff modelling of the Upper Ganga and Brahmaputra basins using PERSiST.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Futter, M N; Whitehead, P G; Sarkar, S; Rodda, H; Crossman, J

    2015-06-01

    There are ongoing discussions about the appropriate level of complexity and sources of uncertainty in rainfall runoff models. Simulations for operational hydrology, flood forecasting or nutrient transport all warrant different levels of complexity in the modelling approach. More complex model structures are appropriate for simulations of land-cover dependent nutrient transport while more parsimonious model structures may be adequate for runoff simulation. The appropriate level of complexity is also dependent on data availability. Here, we use PERSiST; a simple, semi-distributed dynamic rainfall-runoff modelling toolkit to simulate flows in the Upper Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers. We present two sets of simulations driven by single time series of daily precipitation and temperature using simple (A) and complex (B) model structures based on uniform and hydrochemically relevant land covers respectively. Models were compared based on ensembles of Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) statistics. Equifinality was observed for parameters but not for model structures. Model performance was better for the more complex (B) structural representations than for parsimonious model structures. The results show that structural uncertainty is more important than parameter uncertainty. The ensembles of BIC statistics suggested that neither structural representation was preferable in a statistical sense. Simulations presented here confirm that relatively simple models with limited data requirements can be used to credibly simulate flows and water balance components needed for nutrient flux modelling in large, data-poor basins.

  13. Hydrologic and Water Quality Model Development Using Simulink

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James D. Bowen

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available A stormwater runoff model based on the Soil Conservation Service (SCS method and a finite-volume based water quality model have been developed to investigate the use of Simulink for use in teaching and research. Simulink, a MATLAB extension, is a graphically based model development environment for system modeling and simulation. Widely used for mechanical and electrical systems, Simulink has had less use for modeling of hydrologic systems. The watershed model is being considered for use in teaching graduate-level courses in hydrology and/or stormwater modeling. Simulink’s block (data process and arrow (data transfer object model, the copy and paste user interface, the large number of existing blocks, and the absence of computer code allows students to become model developers almost immediately. The visual depiction of systems, their component subsystems, and the flow of data through the systems are ideal attributes for hands-on teaching of hydrologic and mass balance processes to today’s computer-savvy visual learners. Model development with Simulink for research purposes is also investigated. A finite volume, multi-layer pond model using the water quality kinetics present in CE-QUAL-W2 has been developed using Simulink. The model is one of the first uses of Simulink for modeling eutrophication dynamics in stratified natural systems. The model structure and a test case are presented. One use of the model for teaching a graduate-level water quality modeling class is also described.

  14. Effects of climate and land-use change on storm runoff generation: present knowledge and modelling capabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bronstert, Axel; Niehoff, Daniel; Bürger, Gerd

    2002-02-01

    There are several indications that changes in land cover have influenced the hydrological regime of various river basins. In addition, the effects of climate change on the hydrological cycle and on the runoff behaviour of river catchments have been discussed extensively in recent years. However, it is at present rather uncertain how, how much and at which spatial scale these environmental changes are likely to affect the generation of storm runoff, and consequently the flood discharges of rivers. Firstly, this paper gives an overview of the possible effects of climatic and land-use change on storm runoff generation. Secondly, it discusses models dealing with the hydrological response to climate and land-use variations, including both the downscaling of climate information from global circulation models and the way flood forecasting models represent land-use conditions. Finally, two modelling studies of meso-scale catchments in Germany are presented: the first shows the possible impacts of climate change on storm runoff production, and the second the impacts of land-use changes.

  15. A Stochastic Model of Surface Runoff and Pollutant Connectivity Between Hillslopes and Streams

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheridan, G. J.; Jones, O. D.; Lane, P. N.; Nyman, P.

    2008-12-01

    The overland flow pathway between hillslopes and streams remains a critical, yet poorly represented transport pathway linking hillslope constituent generation and catchment exports via the stream network. The poor representation of this runoff and pollutant pathway largely results from the mismatch in scales between the pervasive point-scale representations of infiltration (eg Green and Ampt) within hydrologic and erosion models, and the reality of often extreme within-catchment spatial variability in the critical hydrologic properties of the system. Attempted solutions to date fall into three categories; 1) simple empirical sediment delivery ratios, 2) numerical simulations of spatially variable fields of soil and rainfall parameters, and 3) gross simplifications of the variability and arrangement of these parameters so as to admit analytical solutions to the runoff delivery problem. A key aspect of this problem is that in real catchments, transient runoff may be generated, infiltrating further downslope at a point where soil hydraulic conductivity is greater. This paper proposes an alternative way (entitled Stochastic Runoff Connectivity, SRC) to model and quantify the delivery of overland flow to the stream boundary under these spatially variable hillslope conditions. The approach utilizes queuing system theory and a stochastic storage process model whereby the 'connected area', and the volume of water reaching the stream via this pathway, can be described using probability density functions determined (analytically) from the asymptotic states of the stochastic process. The connected area in this instance is defined as an infiltration-excess equivalent to the well know variable source area concept, and provides an important input to raindrop-energy based hillslope erosion models. The validity of the SRC model is tested against field data and numerical simulations.

  16. Revisiting a Hydrological Analysis Framework with International Satellite Land Surface Climatology Project Initiative 2 Rainfall, Net Radiation, and Runoff Fields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koster, Randal D.; Fekete, Balazs M.; Huffman, George J.; Stackhouse, Paul W.

    2006-01-01

    The International Satellite Land Surface Climatology Project Initiative 2 (ISLSCP-2) data set provides the data needed to characterize the surface water budget across much of the globe in terms of energy availability (net radiation) and water availability (precipitation) controls. The data, on average, are shown to be consistent with Budyko s decades-old framework, thereby demonstrating the continuing relevance of Budyko s semiempirical relationships. This consistency, however, appears only when a small subset of the data with hydrologically suspicious behavior is removed from the analysis. In general, the precipitation, net radiation, and runoff data also appear consistent in their interannual variability and in the phasing of their seasonal cycles.

  17. Hydrological improvements for nutrient and pollutant emission modeling in large scale catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Höllering, S.; Ihringer, J.

    2012-04-01

    An estimation of emissions and loads of nutrients and pollutants into European water bodies with as much accuracy as possible depends largely on the knowledge about the spatially and temporally distributed hydrological runoff patterns. An improved hydrological water balance model for the pollutant emission model MoRE (Modeling of Regionalized Emissions) (IWG, 2011) has been introduced, that can form an adequate basis to simulate discharge in a hydrologically differentiated, land-use based way to subsequently provide the required distributed discharge components. First of all the hydrological model had to comply both with requirements of space and time in order to calculate sufficiently precise the water balance on the catchment scale spatially distributed in sub-catchments and with a higher temporal resolution. Aiming to reproduce seasonal dynamics and the characteristic hydrological regimes of river catchments a daily (instead of a yearly) time increment was applied allowing for a more process oriented simulation of discharge dynamics, volume and therefore water balance. The enhancement of the hydrological model became also necessary to potentially account for the hydrological functioning of catchments in regard to scenarios of e.g. a changing climate or alterations of land use. As a deterministic, partly physically based, conceptual hydrological watershed and water balance model the Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) (USGS, 2009) was selected to improve the hydrological input for MoRE. In PRMS the spatial discretization is implemented with sub-catchments and so called hydrologic response units (HRUs) which are the hydrotropic, distributed, finite modeling entities each having a homogeneous runoff reaction due to hydro-meteorological events. Spatial structures and heterogeneities in sub-catchments e.g. urbanity, land use and soil types were identified to derive hydrological similarities and classify in different urban and rural HRUs. In this way the

  18. Linking coral river runoff proxies with climate variability, hydrology and land-use in Madagascar catchments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maina, Joseph; de Moel, Hans; Vermaat, Jan E; Bruggemann, J Henrich; Guillaume, Mireille M M; Grove, Craig A; Madin, Joshua S; Mertz-Kraus, Regina; Zinke, Jens

    2012-10-01

    Understanding the linkages between coastal watersheds and adjacent coral reefs is expected to lead to better coral reef conservation strategies. Our study aims to examine the main predictors of environmental proxies recorded in near shore corals and therefore how linked near shore reefs are to the catchment physical processes. To achieve these, we developed models to simulate hydrology of two watersheds in Madagascar. We examined relationships between environmental proxies derived from massive Porites spp. coral cores (spectral luminescence and barium/calcium ratios), and corresponding time-series (1950-2006) data of hydrology, climate, land use and human population growth. Results suggest regional differences in the main environmental drivers of reef sedimentation: on annual time-scales, precipitation, river flow and sediment load explained the variability in coral proxies of river discharge for the northeast region, while El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and temperature (air and sea surface) were the best predictors in the southwest region. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Evaluating the effects of model structure and meteorological input data on runoff modelling in an alpine headwater basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schattan, Paul; Bellinger, Johannes; Förster, Kristian; Schöber, Johannes; Huttenlau, Matthias; Kirnbauer, Robert; Achleitner, Stefan

    2017-04-01

    Modelling water resources in snow-dominated mountainous catchments is challenging due to both, short concentration times and a highly variable contribution of snow melt in space and time from complex terrain. A number of model setups exist ranging from physically based models to conceptional models which do not attempt to represent the natural processes in a physically meaningful way. Within the flood forecasting system for the Tyrolean Inn River two serially linked hydrological models with differing process representation are used. Non- glacierized catchments are modelled by a semi-distributed, water balance model (HQsim) based on the HRU-approach. A fully-distributed energy and mass balance model (SES), purpose-built for snow- and icemelt, is used for highly glacierized headwater catchments. Previous work revealed uncertainties and limitations within the models' structures regarding (i) the representation of snow processes in HQsim, (ii) the runoff routing of SES, and (iii) the spatial resolution of the meteorological input data in both models. To overcome these limitations, a "strengths driven" model coupling is applied. Instead of linking the models serially, a vertical one-way coupling of models has been implemented. The fully-distributed snow modelling of SES is combined with the semi-distributed HQsim structure, allowing to benefit from soil and runoff routing schemes in HQsim. A monte-carlo based modelling experiment was set up to evaluate the resulting differences in the runoff prediction due to the improved model coupling and a refined spatial resolution of the meteorological forcing. The experiment design follows a gradient of spatial discretisation of hydrological processes and meteorological forcing data with a total of six different model setups for the alpine headwater basin of the Fagge River in the Tyrolean Alps. In general, all setups show a good performance for this particular basin. It is therefore planned to include other basins with differing

  20. Plant adaptive behaviour in hydrological models (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Ploeg, M. J.; Teuling, R.

    2013-12-01

    Models that will be able to cope with future precipitation and evaporation regimes need a solid base that describes the essence of the processes involved [1]. Micro-behaviour in the soil-vegetation-atmosphere system may have a large impact on patterns emerging at larger scales. A complicating factor in the micro-behaviour is the constant interaction between vegetation and geology in which water plays a key role. The resilience of the coupled vegetation-soil system critically depends on its sensitivity to environmental changes. As a result of environmental changes vegetation may wither and die, but such environmental changes may also trigger gene adaptation. Constant exposure to environmental stresses, biotic or abiotic, influences plant physiology, gene adaptations, and flexibility in gene adaptation [2-6]. Gene expression as a result of different environmental conditions may profoundly impact drought responses across the same plant species. Differences in response to an environmental stress, has consequences for the way species are currently being treated in models (single plant to global scale). In particular, model parameters that control root water uptake and plant transpiration are generally assumed to be a property of the plant functional type. Assigning plant functional types does not allow for local plant adaptation to be reflected in the model parameters, nor does it allow for correlations that might exist between root parameters and soil type. Models potentially provide a means to link root water uptake and transport to large scale processes (e.g. Rosnay and Polcher 1998, Feddes et al. 2001, Jung 2010), especially when powered with an integrated hydrological, ecological and physiological base. We explore the experimental evidence from natural vegetation to formulate possible alternative modeling concepts. [1] Seibert, J. 2000. Multi-criteria calibration of a conceptual runoff model using a genetic algorithm. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 4(2): 215

  1. Simulating hydrological responses with a physically based model in a mountainous watershed

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Q. Xu

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available A physical and distributed approach was proposed by Reggiani et al. (1998 to describe the hydrological responses at the catchment scale. The rigorous balance equations for mass, momentum, energy and entropy are applied on the divided spatial domains which are called Representative Elementary Watershed (REW. Based on the 2nd law of thermodynamics, Reggiani (1999 put forward several constitutive relations of hydrological processes. Associated with the above equations, the framework of a physically based distributed hydrological model was established. The crucial step for successfully applying this approach is to develop physically based closure relations for these terms and simplify the set of equations. The paper showed how a theoretical hydrological model based on the REW method was applied to prosecute the hydrological response simulation for a humid watershed. The established model was used to carry on the long-term (daily runoff forecasting and short-term (runoff simulation of storm event hydrological simulation in the studied watershed and the simulated results were analysed. These results and analysis proved that this physically based distributed hydrological model can produce satisfied simulation results and describe the hydrological responses correctly. Finally, several aspects to improve the model demonstrated by the results and analysis were put forward which would be carried out in the future.

  2. Application of random number generators in genetic algorithms to improve rainfall-runoff modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chlumecký, Martin; Buchtele, Josef; Richta, Karel

    2017-10-01

    The efficient calibration of rainfall-runoff models is a difficult issue, even for experienced hydrologists. Therefore, fast and high-quality model calibration is a valuable improvement. This paper describes a novel methodology and software for the optimisation of a rainfall-runoff modelling using a genetic algorithm (GA) with a newly prepared concept of a random number generator (HRNG), which is the core of the optimisation. The GA estimates model parameters using evolutionary principles, which requires a quality number generator. The new HRNG generates random numbers based on hydrological information and it provides better numbers compared to pure software generators. The GA enhances the model calibration very well and the goal is to optimise the calibration of the model with a minimum of user interaction. This article focuses on improving the internal structure of the GA, which is shielded from the user. The results that we obtained indicate that the HRNG provides a stable trend in the output quality of the model, despite various configurations of the GA. In contrast to previous research, the HRNG speeds up the calibration of the model and offers an improvement of rainfall-runoff modelling.

  3. Hydrologic Evaluation of Landfill Performance (HELP) Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    The program models rainfall, runoff, infiltration, and other water pathways to estimate how much water builds up above each landfill liner. It can incorporate data on vegetation, soil types, geosynthetic materials, initial moisture conditions, slopes, etc.

  4. Modelling surface run-off and trends analysis over India

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Rainfall, soil texture, land cover types, slope, etc., were processed and run-off modelling was done using the Natural Resources ConservationService (NRCS) model with modifications and cell size of 5×5 km. The slope and antecedent moisture corrections were incorporated in the existing model. Trend analysis of ...

  5. Estimating runoff from ungauged catchments for reservoir water ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    a combination of in-situ measurements and remotely-sensed data to predict ungauged runoff from Middle Zambezi Basin using the Hydrologic Engineering Centre Hydrologic Modelling. System (HEC-HMS) rainfall-runoff model, with the aim of improving water balance estimation. MATERIALS AND METHODS. Study area.

  6. The Central Valley Hydrologic Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faunt, C.; Belitz, K.; Hanson, R. T.

    2009-12-01

    Historically, California’s Central Valley has been one of the most productive agricultural regions in the world. The Central Valley also is rapidly becoming an important area for California’s expanding urban population. In response to this competition for water, a number of water-related issues have gained prominence: conjunctive use, artificial recharge, hydrologic implications of land-use change, subsidence, and effects of climate variability. To provide information to stakeholders addressing these issues, the USGS made a detailed assessment of the Central Valley aquifer system that includes the present status of water resources and how these resources have changed over time. The principal product of this assessment is a tool, referred to as the Central Valley Hydrologic Model (CVHM), that simulates surface-water flows, groundwater flows, and land subsidence in response to stresses from human uses and from climate variability throughout the entire Central Valley. The CVHM utilizes MODFLOW combined with a new tool called “Farm Process” to simulate groundwater and surface-water flow, irrigated agriculture, land subsidence, and other key processes in the Central Valley on a monthly basis. This model was discretized horizontally into 20,000 1-mi2 cells and vertically into 10 layers ranging in thickness from 50 feet at the land surface to 750 feet at depth. A texture model constructed by using data from more than 8,500 drillers’ logs was used to estimate hydraulic properties. Unmetered pumpage and surface-water deliveries for 21 water-balance regions were simulated with the Farm Process. Model results indicate that human activities, predominately surface-water deliveries and groundwater pumping for irrigated agriculture, have dramatically influenced the hydrology of the Central Valley. These human activities have increased flow though the aquifer system by about a factor of six compared to pre-development conditions. The simulated hydrology reflects spatial

  7. Impact of wetlands mapping on parameterization of hydrologic simulation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viger, R.

    2015-12-01

    Wetlands and other surface depressions can impact hydrologic response within the landscape in a number of ways, such as intercepting runoff and near-surface flows or changing the potential for evaporation and seepage into the soil. The role of these features is increasingly being integrated into hydrological simulation models, such as the USGS Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) and the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), and applied to landscapes where wetlands are dominating features. Because the extent of these features varies widely through time, many modeling applications rely on delineations of the maximum possible extent to define total capacity of a model's spatial response unit. This poster presents an evaluation of several wetland map delineations for the Pipestem River basin in the North Dakota Prairie-pothole region. The featured data sets include the US Fish and Wildlife Service National Wetlands Inventory (NWI), surface water bodies extracted from the US Geological Survey National Hydrography Dataset (NHD), and elevation depressions extracted from 1 meter LiDAR data for the area. In addition to characterizing differences in the quality of these datasets, the poster will assess the impact of these differences when parameters are derived from them for the spatial response units of the PRMS model.

  8. Streamflow characteristics from modeled runoff time series - importance of calibration criteria selection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pool, Sandra; Vis, Marc J. P.; Knight, Rodney R.; Seibert, Jan

    2017-11-01

    Ecologically relevant streamflow characteristics (SFCs) of ungauged catchments are often estimated from simulated runoff of hydrologic models that were originally calibrated on gauged catchments. However, SFC estimates of the gauged donor catchments and subsequently the ungauged catchments can be substantially uncertain when models are calibrated using traditional approaches based on optimization of statistical performance metrics (e.g., Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency). An improved calibration strategy for gauged catchments is therefore crucial to help reduce the uncertainties of estimated SFCs for ungauged catchments. The aim of this study was to improve SFC estimates from modeled runoff time series in gauged catchments by explicitly including one or several SFCs in the calibration process. Different types of objective functions were defined consisting of the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency, single SFCs, or combinations thereof. We calibrated a bucket-type runoff model (HBV - Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenavdelning - model) for 25 catchments in the Tennessee River basin and evaluated the proposed calibration approach on 13 ecologically relevant SFCs representing major flow regime components and different flow conditions. While the model generally tended to underestimate the tested SFCs related to mean and high-flow conditions, SFCs related to low flow were generally overestimated. The highest estimation accuracies were achieved by a SFC-specific model calibration. Estimates of SFCs not included in the calibration process were of similar quality when comparing a multi-SFC calibration approach to a traditional model efficiency calibration. For practical applications, this implies that SFCs should preferably be estimated from targeted runoff model calibration, and modeled estimates need to be carefully interpreted.

  9. Streamflow characteristics from modelled runoff time series: Importance of calibration criteria selection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poole, Sandra; Vis, Marc; Knight, Rodney; Seibert, Jan

    2017-01-01

    Ecologically relevant streamflow characteristics (SFCs) of ungauged catchments are often estimated from simulated runoff of hydrologic models that were originally calibrated on gauged catchments. However, SFC estimates of the gauged donor catchments and subsequently the ungauged catchments can be substantially uncertain when models are calibrated using traditional approaches based on optimization of statistical performance metrics (e.g., Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency). An improved calibration strategy for gauged catchments is therefore crucial to help reduce the uncertainties of estimated SFCs for ungauged catchments. The aim of this study was to improve SFC estimates from modeled runoff time series in gauged catchments by explicitly including one or several SFCs in the calibration process. Different types of objective functions were defined consisting of the Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency, single SFCs, or combinations thereof. We calibrated a bucket-type runoff model (HBV – Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenavdelning – model) for 25 catchments in the Tennessee River basin and evaluated the proposed calibration approach on 13 ecologically relevant SFCs representing major flow regime components and different flow conditions. While the model generally tended to underestimate the tested SFCs related to mean and high-flow conditions, SFCs related to low flow were generally overestimated. The highest estimation accuracies were achieved by a SFC-specific model calibration. Estimates of SFCs not included in the calibration process were of similar quality when comparing a multi-SFC calibration approach to a traditional model efficiency calibration. For practical applications, this implies that SFCs should preferably be estimated from targeted runoff model calibration, and modeled estimates need to be carefully interpreted.

  10. Streamflow characteristics from modeled runoff time series – importance of calibration criteria selection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Pool

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Ecologically relevant streamflow characteristics (SFCs of ungauged catchments are often estimated from simulated runoff of hydrologic models that were originally calibrated on gauged catchments. However, SFC estimates of the gauged donor catchments and subsequently the ungauged catchments can be substantially uncertain when models are calibrated using traditional approaches based on optimization of statistical performance metrics (e.g., Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency. An improved calibration strategy for gauged catchments is therefore crucial to help reduce the uncertainties of estimated SFCs for ungauged catchments. The aim of this study was to improve SFC estimates from modeled runoff time series in gauged catchments by explicitly including one or several SFCs in the calibration process. Different types of objective functions were defined consisting of the Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency, single SFCs, or combinations thereof. We calibrated a bucket-type runoff model (HBV – Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenavdelning – model for 25 catchments in the Tennessee River basin and evaluated the proposed calibration approach on 13 ecologically relevant SFCs representing major flow regime components and different flow conditions. While the model generally tended to underestimate the tested SFCs related to mean and high-flow conditions, SFCs related to low flow were generally overestimated. The highest estimation accuracies were achieved by a SFC-specific model calibration. Estimates of SFCs not included in the calibration process were of similar quality when comparing a multi-SFC calibration approach to a traditional model efficiency calibration. For practical applications, this implies that SFCs should preferably be estimated from targeted runoff model calibration, and modeled estimates need to be carefully interpreted.

  11. Application of two rainfall - runoff models to Kelantan Catchment ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Rainfall-runoff models can be used for forecasting flow from catchments. Flow forecasting from a catchment has great use for proper water resources development and operational management. Countless models have been produced m different parts of the world to simulate this transformation of rainfall over the catchment ...

  12. Implications of the methodological choices for hydrologic portrayals of climate change over the contiguous United States: Statistically downscaled forcing data and hydrologic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mizukami, Naoki; Clark, Martyn P.; Gutmann, Ethan D.; Mendoza, Pablo A.; Newman, Andrew J.; Nijssen, Bart; Livneh, Ben; Hay, Lauren E.; Arnold, Jeffrey R.; Brekke, Levi D.

    2016-01-01

    Continental-domain assessments of climate change impacts on water resources typically rely on statistically downscaled climate model outputs to force hydrologic models at a finer spatial resolution. This study examines the effects of four statistical downscaling methods [bias-corrected constructed analog (BCCA), bias-corrected spatial disaggregation applied at daily (BCSDd) and monthly scales (BCSDm), and asynchronous regression (AR)] on retrospective hydrologic simulations using three hydrologic models with their default parameters (the Community Land Model, version 4.0; the Variable Infiltration Capacity model, version 4.1.2; and the Precipitation–Runoff Modeling System, version 3.0.4) over the contiguous United States (CONUS). Biases of hydrologic simulations forced by statistically downscaled climate data relative to the simulation with observation-based gridded data are presented. Each statistical downscaling method produces different meteorological portrayals including precipitation amount, wet-day frequency, and the energy input (i.e., shortwave radiation), and their interplay affects estimations of precipitation partitioning between evapotranspiration and runoff, extreme runoff, and hydrologic states (i.e., snow and soil moisture). The analyses show that BCCA underestimates annual precipitation by as much as −250 mm, leading to unreasonable hydrologic portrayals over the CONUS for all models. Although the other three statistical downscaling methods produce a comparable precipitation bias ranging from −10 to 8 mm across the CONUS, BCSDd severely overestimates the wet-day fraction by up to 0.25, leading to different precipitation partitioning compared to the simulations with other downscaled data. Overall, the choice of downscaling method contributes to less spread in runoff estimates (by a factor of 1.5–3) than the choice of hydrologic model with use of the default parameters if BCCA is excluded.

  13. Application of random number generators in genetic algorithms to improve rainfall-runoff modelling

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Chlumecký, M.; Buchtele, Josef; Richta, K.

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 553, October (2017), s. 350-355 ISSN 0022-1694 Institutional support: RVO:67985874 Keywords : genetic algorithm * optimisation * rainfall-runoff modeling * random generator Subject RIV: DA - Hydrology ; Limnology Impact factor: 3.483, year: 2016 https://ac.els-cdn.com/S0022169417305516/1-s2.0-S0022169417305516-main.pdf?_tid=fa1bad8a-bd6a-11e7-8567-00000aab0f27&acdnat=1509365462_a1335d3d997e9eab19e23b1eee977705

  14. Continuous Hydrological Simulations with the NCUDWM Distributed Watershed Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sung, R.; Li, M.

    2009-12-01

    The object of this study is to investigate the responses with which temporal resolutions of rainfall inputs shape the character of continuous hydrological simulations of distributed watershed models. A fully distributed watershed model, NCUDWM, has been developed for resolving watershed hydrological responses in a variety of spatial and temporal scales. The model interactively coupled three modules of 1-D river flow, 2-D surface runoff, and 3-D variable-saturated subsurface flow. The river flow is simulated by the 1-D diffusive wave approach for each river segment with the conservation of mass and the continuity of stage for river junctions. The surface runoff is simulated by the 2-D diffusive wave approach and eight flow directions are allowed for runoff in/out of each surface grid. The interactions between river flow and surface runoff is determined by the continuity of stage and the conservation of mass when water of two regimes are connected and stage differences exist. Daily evapotranspiration is estimated by multiplying the potential evapotranspiration, either prescribed or computed, by the crop coefficient determined from land use. The subsurface flow is a quasi 3-D approach, including soil moisture movements in the vertical direction and groundwater flows in the horizontal direction described by the Darcy’s law. The interactions between subsurface water and surface water (river and surface runoff) is described by the direct connection approach that flux and head continuities are conserved. This study examines hourly and daily flow simulations by NCUDWM with observed daily precipitations embedded with hourly precipitations for extreme events. The study site is the Shihmen Reservoir watershed (catchment area: 736 km2; elevations: 135-3529 m) in northern Taiwan and a yearly long simulation was performed for 2001. The first run was performed by merely providing daily precipitations in 2001. The second run was conducted by considering hourly precipitations of

  15. SWAT Modeling for Depression-Dominated Areas: How Do Depressions Manipulate Hydrologic Modeling?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohsen Tahmasebi Nasab

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Modeling hydrologic processes for depression-dominated areas such as the North American Prairie Pothole Region is complex and reliant on a clear understanding of dynamic filling-spilling-merging-splitting processes of numerous depressions over the surface. Puddles are spatially distributed over a watershed and their sizes, storages, and interactions vary over time. However, most hydrologic models fail to account for these dynamic processes. Like other traditional methods, depressions are filled as a required preprocessing step in the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT. The objective of this study was to facilitate hydrologic modeling for depression-dominated areas by coupling SWAT with a Puddle Delineation (PD algorithm. In the coupled PD-SWAT model, the PD algorithm was utilized to quantify topographic details, including the characteristics, distribution, and hierarchical relationships of depressions, which were incorporated into SWAT at the hydrologic response unit (HRU scale. The new PD-SWAT model was tested for a large watershed in North Dakota under real precipitation events. In addition, hydrologic modeling of a small watershed was conducted under two extreme high and low synthetic precipitation conditions. In particular, the PD-SWAT was compared against the regular SWAT based on depressionless DEMs. The impact of depressions on the hydrologic modeling of the large and small watersheds was evaluated. The simulation results for the large watershed indicated that SWAT systematically overestimated the outlet discharge, which can be attributed to the failure to account for the hydrologic effects of depressions. It was found from the PD-SWAT modeling results that at the HRU scale surface runoff initiation was significantly delayed due to the threshold control of depressions. Under the high precipitation scenario, depressions increased the surface runoff peak. However, the low precipitation scenario could not fully fill depressions to reach

  16. Robust Initial Wetness Condition Framework of an Event-Based Rainfall–Runoff Model Using Remotely Sensed Soil Moisture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wooyeon Sunwoo

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Runoff prediction in limited-data areas is vital for hydrological applications, such as the design of infrastructure and flood defenses, runoff forecasting, and water management. Rainfall–runoff models may be useful for simulation of runoff generation, particularly event-based models, which offer a practical modeling scheme because of their simplicity. However, there is a need to reduce the uncertainties related to the estimation of the initial wetness condition (IWC prior to a rainfall event. Soil moisture is one of the most important variables in rainfall–runoff modeling, and remotely sensed soil moisture is recognized as an effective way to improve the accuracy of runoff prediction. In this study, the IWC was evaluated based on remotely sensed soil moisture by using the Soil Conservation Service-Curve Number (SCS-CN method, which is one of the representative event-based models used for reducing the uncertainty of runoff prediction. Four proxy variables for the IWC were determined from the measurements of total rainfall depth (API5, ground-based soil moisture (SSMinsitu, remotely sensed surface soil moisture (SSM, and soil water index (SWI provided by the advanced scatterometer (ASCAT. To obtain a robust IWC framework, this study consists of two main parts: the validation of remotely sensed soil moisture, and the evaluation of runoff prediction using four proxy variables with a set of rainfall–runoff events in the East Asian monsoon region. The results showed an acceptable agreement between remotely sensed soil moisture (SSM and SWI and ground based soil moisture data (SSMinsitu. In the proxy variable analysis, the SWI indicated the optimal value among the proposed proxy variables. In the runoff prediction analysis considering various infiltration conditions, the SSM and SWI proxy variables significantly reduced the runoff prediction error as compared with API5 by 60% and 66%, respectively. Moreover, the proposed IWC framework with

  17. Hydrologic modelling of the effect of snowmelt and temperature on a ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    In this study, a distributed hydrologic model is used to explore the orographic effects on the snowmelt-runoff using the snowfall-snowmelt routine in Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Three parameters, namely maximum snowmelt factor, minimum snowmelt factor, and snowpack temperature lag were analysed during ...

  18. Evaluating the robustness of conceptual rainfall-runoff models under climate variability in northern Tunisia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dakhlaoui, H.; Ruelland, D.; Tramblay, Y.; Bargaoui, Z.

    2017-07-01

    To evaluate the impact of climate change on water resources at the catchment scale, not only future projections of climate are necessary but also robust rainfall-runoff models that must be fairly reliable under changing climate conditions. The aim of this study was thus to assess the robustness of three conceptual rainfall-runoff models (GR4j, HBV and IHACRES) on five basins in northern Tunisia under long-term climate variability, in the light of available future climate scenarios for this region. The robustness of the models was evaluated using a differential split sample test based on a climate classification of the observation period that simultaneously accounted for precipitation and temperature conditions. The study catchments include the main hydrographical basins in northern Tunisia, which produce most of the surface water resources in the country. A 30-year period (1970-2000) was used to capture a wide range of hydro-climatic conditions. The calibration was based on the Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) criterion, while model transferability was evaluated based on the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency criterion and volume error. The three hydrological models were shown to behave similarly under climate variability. The models simulated the runoff pattern better when transferred to wetter and colder conditions than to drier and warmer ones. It was shown that their robustness became unacceptable when climate conditions involved a decrease of more than 25% in annual precipitation and an increase of more than +1.75 °C in annual mean temperatures. The reduction in model robustness may be partly due to the climate dependence of some parameters. When compared to precipitation and temperature projections in the region, the limits of transferability obtained in this study are generally respected for short and middle term. For long term projections under the most pessimistic emission gas scenarios, the limits of transferability are generally not respected, which may hamper the

  19. Modelling monthly runoff generation processes following land use changes: groundwater–surface runoff interactions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Bari

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available A conceptual water balance model is presented to represent changes in monthly water balance following land use changes. Monthly rainfall–runoff, groundwater and soil moisture data from four experimental catchments in Western Australia have been analysed. Two of these catchments, 'Ernies' (control, fully forested and 'Lemon' (54% cleared are in a zone of mean annual rainfall of 725 mm, while 'Salmon' (control, fully forested and 'Wights' (100% cleared are in a zone with mean annual rainfall of 1125 mm. At the Salmon forested control catchment, streamflow comprises surface runoff, base flow and interflow components. In the Wights catchment, cleared of native forest for pasture development, all three components increased, groundwater levels rose significantly and stream zone saturated area increased from 1% to 15% of the catchment area. It took seven years after clearing for the rainfall–runoff generation process to stabilise in 1984. At the Ernies forested control catchment, the permanent groundwater system is 20 m below the stream bed and so does not contribute to streamflow. Following partial clearing of forest in the Lemon catchment, groundwater rose steadily and reached the stream bed by 1987. The streamflow increased in two phases: (i immediately after clearing due to reduced evapotranspiration, and (ii through an increase in the groundwater-induced stream zone saturated area after 1987. After analysing all the data available, a conceptual monthly model was created, comprising four inter-connecting stores: (i an upper zone unsaturated store, (ii a transient stream zone store, (ii a lower zone unsaturated store and (iv a saturated groundwater store. Data such as rooting depth, Leaf Area Index, soil porosity, profile thickness, depth to groundwater, stream length and surface slope were incorporated into the model as a priori defined attributes. The catchment average values for different stores were determined through matching observed and

  20. Flash flood modeling with the MARINE hydrological distributed model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Estupina-Borrell, V.; Dartus, D.; Ababou, R.

    2006-11-01

    Flash floods are characterized by their violence and the rapidity of their occurrence. Because these events are rare and unpredictable, but also fast and intense, their anticipation with sufficient lead time for warning and broadcasting is a primary subject of research. Because of the heterogeneities of the rain and of the behavior of the surface, spatially distributed hydrological models can lead to a better understanding of the processes and so on they can contribute to a better forecasting of flash flood. Our main goal here is to develop an operational and robust methodology for flash flood forecasting. This methodology should provide relevant data (information) about flood evolution on short time scales, and should be applicable even in locations where direct observations are sparse (e.g. absence of historical and modern rainfalls and streamflows in small mountainous watersheds). The flash flood forecast is obtained by the physically based, space-time distributed hydrological model "MARINE'' (Model of Anticipation of Runoff and INondations for Extreme events). This model is presented and tested in this paper for a real flash flood event. The model consists in two steps, or two components: the first component is a "basin'' flood module which generates flood runoff in the upstream part of the watershed, and the second component is the "stream network'' module, which propagates the flood in the main river and its subsidiaries. The basin flash flood generation model is a rainfall-runoff model that can integrate remotely sensed data. Surface hydraulics equations are solved with enough simplifying hypotheses to allow real time exploitation. The minimum data required by the model are: (i) the Digital Elevation Model, used to calculate slopes that generate runoff, it can be issued from satellite imagery (SPOT) or from French Geographical Institute (IGN); (ii) the rainfall data from meteorological radar, observed or anticipated by the French Meteorological Service (M

  1. Modelling catchment hydrological responses in a Himalayan Lake ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    We discuss spatio-temporal variations in LULC and identify factors contributing to these variations and analyze the corresponding impacts of the change on the hydrological processes like runoff, erosion and sedimentation. The simulated results on the hydrological responses reveal that depletion of the vegetation cover in ...

  2. Sensitivity of Drought Processes to Runoff Parameterizations in East Asia with the Community Land Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, J. B.; Um, M. J.; Kim, Y.

    2016-12-01

    Drought is one of the most powerful and extensive disasters and has the highest annual average damage among all the disasters. Focusing on East Asia, where over one fifth of all the people in the world live, drought has impacted as well as been projected to impact the region significantly. .Therefore it is critical to reasonably simulate the drought phenomenon in the region and thus this study would focus on the reproducibility of drought with the NCAR CLM. In this study, we examine the propagation of drought processes with different runoff parameterization of CLM in East Asia. Two different schemes are used; TOPMODEL-based and VIC-based schemes, which differentiate the result of runoff through the surface and subsurface runoff parameterization. CLM with different runoff scheme are driven with two atmospheric forcings from CRU/NCEP and NCEP reanalysis data. Specifically, propagation of drought from meteorological, agricultural to hydrologic drought is investigated with different drought indices, estimated with not only model simulated results but also observational data. The indices include the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), standardized runoff index (SRI) and standardized soil moisture index (SSMI). Based on these indices, the drought characteristics such as intensity, frequency and spatial extent are investigated. At last, such drought assessments would reveal the possible model deficiencies in East Asia. AcknowledgementsThis work was supported by Basic Science Research Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) funded by the Ministry of Science, ICT & Future Planning (2015R1C1A2A01054800) and the Korea Meteorological Administration R&D Program under Grant KMIPA 2015-6180.

  3. An application of artificial intelligence for rainfall–runoff modeling

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    This study proposes an application of two techniques of artificial intelligence (AI) for rainfall–runoff modeling: the artificial neural networks (ANN) and the ... Statistical parameters such as average, standard deviation, coefficient of variation, skewness, minimum and maximum values, as well as criteria such as mean square ...

  4. Modelling surface run-off and trends analysis over India

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Rainfall, soil texture, land cover types, slope, etc., were processed and run-off modelling was done using the Natural Resources Conservation ... any development and planning including food pro- duction, flood control and effective ... technology based evaluation of land surface prop- erties at spatial and temporal scales are ...

  5. Assimilating scatterometer soil moisture data into conceptual hydrologic models at the regional scale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Parajka

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the potential of scatterometer data from ERS satellites for improving hydrological simulations in both gauged and ungauged catchments. We compare the soil moisture dynamics simulated by a semidistributed hydrologic model in 320 Austrian catchments with the soil moisture dynamics inferred from the satellite data. The most apparent differences occur in the Alpine areas. Assimilating the scatterometer data into the hydrologic model during the calibration phase improves the relationship between the two soil moisture estimates without any significant decrease in runoff model efficiency. For the case of ungauged catchments, assimilating scatterometer data does not improve the daily runoff simulations but does provide more consistent soil moisture estimates. If the main interest is in obtaining estimates of catchment soil moisture, reconciling the two sources of soil moisture information seems to be of value because of the different error structures.

  6. Local contributions to infiltration excess runoff for a conceptual catchment scale model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orlandini, Stefano; Mancini, Marco; Paniconi, Claudio; Rosso, Renzo

    The response of a conceptual soil water balance model to storm events is compared to a detailed finite element solution of the one-dimensional Richards equation in order to test the capabilities of the former in calculating the local contributions to infiltration excess runoff in a distributed catchment scale model. Local infiltration excess runoff is computed from ground level precipitation using the time compression approximation and a Philip infiltration capacity curve with Brooks-Corey constitutive equations. The validity of applying the conceptual model for local runoff and soil water balance calculations is investigated by performing numerical experiments over a range of soil types, control volume depths, and initial soil moisture conditions. We find that a good agreement between the conceptual and detailed models is obtained when the gravitational infiltration rate in Philip's formula is set to the saturated hydraulic conductivity, and when percolation from the control volume is updated as a function of the soil moisture content in a stepwise fashion. The comparison between these two models suggests that the simpler (and much less computer-intensive) conceptual water balance technique could be incorporated into distributed models for large scale complex terrains as an efficient means of retaining consideration of spatial variability effects in catchment scale hydrologic simulations. This is illustrated in an application to the Rio Missiaga catchment in the eastern Italian Alps, where the local contributions to surface and subsurface runoff are routed onto a digital elevation model-based conceptual transport network via a simple numerical scheme based on the Muskingum-Cunge method.

  7. How would peak rainfall intensity affect runoff predictions using conceptual water balance models?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Yu

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Most hydrological models use continuous daily precipitation and potential evapotranspiration for streamflow estimation. With the projected increase in mean surface temperature, hydrological processes are set to intensify irrespective of the underlying changes to the mean precipitation. The effect of an increase in rainfall intensity on the long-term water balance is, however, not adequately accounted for in the commonly used hydrological models. This study follows from a previous comparative analysis of a non-stationary daily series of stream flow of a forested watershed (River Rimbaud in the French Alps (area = 1.478 km2 (1966–2006. Non-stationarity in the recorded stream flow occurred as a result of a severe wild fire in 1990. Two daily models (AWBM and SimHyd were initially calibrated for each of three distinct phases in relation to the well documented land disturbance. At the daily and monthly time scales, both models performed satisfactorily with the Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency (NSE varying from 0.77 to 0.92. When aggregated to the annual time scale, both models underestimated the flow by about 22% with a reduced NSE at about 0.71. Exploratory data analysis was undertaken to relate daily peak hourly rainfall intensity to the discrepancy between the observed and modelled daily runoff amount. Preliminary results show that the effect of peak hourly rainfall intensity on runoff prediction is insignificant, and model performance is unlikely to improve when peak daily precipitation is included. Trend analysis indicated that the large decrease of precipitation when daily precipitation amount exceeded 10–20 mm may have contributed greatly to the decrease in stream flow of this forested watershed.

  8. Definition and sensitivity of the conceptual MORDOR rainfall-runoff model parameters using different multi-criteria calibration strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garavaglia, F.; Seyve, E.; Gottardi, F.; Le Lay, M.; Gailhard, J.; Garçon, R.

    2014-12-01

    MORDOR is a conceptual hydrological model extensively used in Électricité de France (EDF, French electric utility company) operational applications: (i) hydrological forecasting, (ii) flood risk assessment, (iii) water balance and (iv) climate change studies. MORDOR is a lumped, reservoir, elevation based model with hourly or daily areal rainfall and air temperature as the driving input data. The principal hydrological processes represented are evapotranspiration, direct and indirect runoff, ground water, snow accumulation and melt and routing. The model has been intensively used at EDF for more than 20 years, in particular for modeling French mountainous watersheds. In the matter of parameters calibration we propose and test alternative multi-criteria techniques based on two specific approaches: automatic calibration using single-objective functions and a priori parameter calibration founded on hydrological watershed features. The automatic calibration approach uses single-objective functions, based on Kling-Gupta efficiency, to quantify the good agreement between the simulated and observed runoff focusing on four different runoff samples: (i) time-series sample, (I) annual hydrological regime, (iii) monthly cumulative distribution functions and (iv) recession sequences.The primary purpose of this study is to analyze the definition and sensitivity of MORDOR parameters testing different calibration techniques in order to: (i) simplify the model structure, (ii) increase the calibration-validation performance of the model and (iii) reduce the equifinality problem of calibration process. We propose an alternative calibration strategy that reaches these goals. The analysis is illustrated by calibrating MORDOR model to daily data for 50 watersheds located in French mountainous regions.

  9. The sensitivity of catchment runoff models to rainfall data at different spatial scales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. A. Bell

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available The sensitivity of catchment runoff models to rainfall is investigated at a variety of spatial scales using data from a dense raingauge network and weather radar. These data form part of the HYREX (HYdrological Radar EXperiment dataset. They encompass records from 49 raingauges over the 135 km2 Brue catchment in south-west England together with 2 and 5 km grid-square radar data. Separate rainfall time-series for the radar and raingauge data are constructed on 2, 5 and 10 km grids, and as catchment average values, at a 15 minute time-step. The sensitivity of the catchment runoff models to these grid scales of input data is evaluated on selected convective and stratiform rainfall events. Each rainfall time-series is used to produce an ensemble of modelled hydrographs in order to investigate this sensitivity. The distributed model is shown to be sensitive to the locations of the raingauges within the catchment and hence to the spatial variability of rainfall over the catchment. Runoff sensitivity is strongest during convective rainfall when a broader spread of modelled hydrographs results, with twice the variability of that arising from stratiform rain. Sensitivity to rainfall data and model resolution is explored and, surprisingly, best performance is obtained using a lower resolution of rainfall data and model. Results from the distributed catchment model, the Simple Grid Model, are compared with those obtained from a lumped model, the PDM. Performance from the distributed model is found to be only marginally better during stratiform rain (R2 of 0.922 compared to 0.911 but significantly better during convective rain (R2 of 0.953 compared to 0.909. The improved performance from the distributed model can, in part, be accredited to the excellence of the dense raingauge network which would not be the norm for operational flood warning systems. In the final part of the paper, the effect of rainfall resolution on the performance of the 2 km distributed

  10. Covariance Models for Hydrological Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hristopulos, Dionissios

    2014-05-01

    This methodological contribution aims to present some new covariance models with applications in the stochastic analysis of hydrological processes. More specifically, we present explicit expressions for radially symmetric, non-differentiable, Spartan covariance functions in one, two, and three dimensions. The Spartan covariance parameters include a characteristic length, an amplitude coefficient, and a rigidity coefficient which determines the shape of the covariance function. Different expressions are obtained depending on the value of the rigidity coefficient and the dimensionality. If the value of the rigidity coefficient is much larger than one, the Spartan covariance function exhibits multiscaling. Spartan covariance models are more flexible than the classical geostatatistical models (e.g., spherical, exponential). Their non-differentiability makes them suitable for modelling the properties of geological media. We also present a family of radially symmetric, infinitely differentiable Bessel-Lommel covariance functions which are valid in any dimension. These models involve combinations of Bessel and Lommel functions. They provide a generalization of the J-Bessel covariance function, and they can be used to model smooth processes with an oscillatory decay of correlations. We discuss the dependence of the integral range of the Spartan and Bessel-Lommel covariance functions on the parameters. We point out that the dependence is not uniquely specified by the characteristic length, unlike the classical geostatistical models. Finally, we define and discuss the use of the generalized spectrum for characterizing different correlation length scales; the spectrum is defined in terms of an exponent α. We show that the spectrum values obtained for exponent values less than one can be used to discriminate between mean-square continuous but non-differentiable random fields. References [1] D. T. Hristopulos and S. Elogne, 2007. Analytic properties and covariance functions of

  11. The quest for knowledge: to what extent can transparent modelling methodologies extract useful hydrological information?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abrahart, R. J.; Ghani, N. Ab; Shamseldin, A. Y.

    2009-04-01

    The capabilities of two transparent modelling methodologies to extract useful hydrological information is reported. Experimental emulators were constructed in a controlled environment that comprised digital inputs and outputs for a simple conceptual rainfall-runoff model: the Xinanjiang Rainfall-Runoff Model (Zhao et al., 1980; Zhao, 1992). This model was designed for use in humid or semi-humid regions and is based on the concept of runoff formation on repletion of storage i.e. runoff is not produced until the soil moisture content of the aeration zone reaches field storage capacity and thereafter runoff equals rainfall excess without further loss. It has been applied with success to large areas including all of the agricultural, pastoral and forested lands [except for the loess] of China (Zhao & Liu, 1995, p.230). The model has a small number of parameters, its structure and components have strong physical meaning, and these factors in combination make it a popular tool for hydrological modelling. Two methods were used to develop a set of transparent emulators: ANFIS (Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System) and GEP (Gene Expression Programming). The simplest form of the conceptual model that required four inputs and had no temporal component was examined. Model inputs comprised a set of uniform random distributions that had been computed in a statistical package and the cloning operation facilitated a direct comparison with the exact equation-based relationship. The potential of each tool to perform simple non-linear hydrological transformations is evaluated as is the power of each individual method to capture and communicate important aspects of a recognised non-linear hydrological modelling equation.

  12. Rainfall-runoff modeling in the Turkey River using numerical and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Researchers have used numerical models for modeling rainfall-runoff process in the watershed because of non-linear nature of rainfall-runoff relationship, vast data requirement and physical models hardness. The main object of this research was to model the rainfall-runoff relationship at the Turkey River in Mississippi.

  13. Genetic Programming for Automatic Hydrological Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chadalawada, Jayashree; Babovic, Vladan

    2017-04-01

    One of the recent challenges for the hydrologic research community is the need for the development of coupled systems that involves the integration of hydrologic, atmospheric and socio-economic relationships. This poses a requirement for novel modelling frameworks that can accurately represent complex systems, given, the limited understanding of underlying processes, increasing volume of data and high levels of uncertainity. Each of the existing hydrological models vary in terms of conceptualization and process representation and is the best suited to capture the environmental dynamics of a particular hydrological system. Data driven approaches can be used in the integration of alternative process hypotheses in order to achieve a unified theory at catchment scale. The key steps in the implementation of integrated modelling framework that is influenced by prior understanding and data, include, choice of the technique for the induction of knowledge from data, identification of alternative structural hypotheses, definition of rules, constraints for meaningful, intelligent combination of model component hypotheses and definition of evaluation metrics. This study aims at defining a Genetic Programming based modelling framework that test different conceptual model constructs based on wide range of objective functions and evolves accurate and parsimonious models that capture dominant hydrological processes at catchment scale. In this paper, GP initializes the evolutionary process using the modelling decisions inspired from the Superflex framework [Fenicia et al., 2011] and automatically combines them into model structures that are scrutinized against observed data using statistical, hydrological and flow duration curve based performance metrics. The collaboration between data driven and physical, conceptual modelling paradigms improves the ability to model and manage hydrologic systems. Fenicia, F., D. Kavetski, and H. H. Savenije (2011), Elements of a flexible approach

  14. Possibilistic uncertainty analysis of a conceptual model of snowmelt runoff

    OpenAIRE

    A. P. Jacquin

    2010-01-01

    This study presents the analysis of predictive uncertainty of a conceptual type snowmelt runoff model. The method applied uses possibilistic rather than probabilistic calculus for the evaluation of predictive uncertainty. Possibility theory is an information theory meant to model uncertainties caused by imprecise or incomplete knowledge about a real system rather than by randomness. A snow dominated catchment in the Chilean Andes is used as case study. Predictive uncertainty arising from para...

  15. A surface hydrology model for regional vector borne disease models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tompkins, Adrian; Asare, Ernest; Bomblies, Arne; Amekudzi, Leonard

    2016-04-01

    Small, sun-lit temporary pools that form during the rainy season are important breeding sites for many key mosquito vectors responsible for the transmission of malaria and other diseases. The representation of this surface hydrology in mathematical disease models is challenging, due to their small-scale, dependence on the terrain and the difficulty of setting soil parameters. Here we introduce a model that represents the temporal evolution of the aggregate statistics of breeding sites in a single pond fractional coverage parameter. The model is based on a simple, geometrical assumption concerning the terrain, and accounts for the processes of surface runoff, pond overflow, infiltration and evaporation. Soil moisture, soil properties and large-scale terrain slope are accounted for using a calibration parameter that sets the equivalent catchment fraction. The model is calibrated and then evaluated using in situ pond measurements in Ghana and ultra-high (10m) resolution explicit simulations for a village in Niger. Despite the model's simplicity, it is shown to reproduce the variability and mean of the pond aggregate water coverage well for both locations and validation techniques. Example malaria simulations for Uganda will be shown using this new scheme with a generic calibration setting, evaluated using district malaria case data. Possible methods for implementing regional calibration will be briefly discussed.

  16. Hydrological heterogeneity in Mediterranean reclaimed slopes: runoff and sediment yield at the patch and slope scales along a gradient of overland flow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merino-Martín, L.; Moreno-de las Heras, M.; Pérez-Domingo, S.; Espigares, T.; Nicolau, J. M.

    2012-05-01

    Hydrological heterogeneity is recognized as a fundamental ecosystem attribute in drylands controlling the flux of water and energy through landscapes. Therefore, mosaics of runoff and sediment source patches and sinks are frequently identified in these dry environments. There is a remarkable scarcity of studies about hydrological spatial heterogeneity in restored slopes, where ecological succession and overland flow are interacting. We conducted field research to study the hydrological role of patches and slopes along an "overland flow gradient" (gradient of overland flow routing through the slopes caused by different amounts of run-on coming from upslope) in three reclaimed mining slopes of Mediterranean-continental climate. We found that runoff generation and routing in non-rilled slopes showed a pattern of source and sink areas of runoff. Such hydrological microenvironments were associated with seven vegetation patches (characterized by plant community types and cover). Two types of sink patches were identified: shrub Genista scorpius patches could be considered as "deep sinks", while patches where the graminoids Brachypodium retusum and Lolium perenne dominate were classified as "surface sinks" or "runoff splays". A variety of source patches were also identified spanning from "extreme sources" (Medicago sativa patches; equivalent to bare soil) to "poor sources" (areas scattered by dwarf-shrubs of Thymus vulgaris or herbaceous tussocks of Dactylis glomerata). Finally, we identified the volume of overland flow routing along the slope as a major controlling factor of "hydrological diversity" (heterogeneity of hydrological behaviours quantified as Shannon diversity index): when overland flow increases at the slope scale hydrological diversity diminishes.

  17. Hydrological heterogeneity in Mediterranean reclaimed slopes: runoff and sediment yield at the patch and slope scales along a gradient of overland flow

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Merino-Martín

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Hydrological heterogeneity is recognized as a fundamental ecosystem attribute in drylands controlling the flux of water and energy through landscapes. Therefore, mosaics of runoff and sediment source patches and sinks are frequently identified in these dry environments. There is a remarkable scarcity of studies about hydrological spatial heterogeneity in restored slopes, where ecological succession and overland flow are interacting. We conducted field research to study the hydrological role of patches and slopes along an "overland flow gradient" (gradient of overland flow routing through the slopes caused by different amounts of run-on coming from upslope in three reclaimed mining slopes of Mediterranean-continental climate. We found that runoff generation and routing in non-rilled slopes showed a pattern of source and sink areas of runoff. Such hydrological microenvironments were associated with seven vegetation patches (characterized by plant community types and cover. Two types of sink patches were identified: shrub Genista scorpius patches could be considered as "deep sinks", while patches where the graminoids Brachypodium retusum and Lolium perenne dominate were classified as "surface sinks" or "runoff splays". A variety of source patches were also identified spanning from "extreme sources" (Medicago sativa patches; equivalent to bare soil to "poor sources" (areas scattered by dwarf-shrubs of Thymus vulgaris or herbaceous tussocks of Dactylis glomerata. Finally, we identified the volume of overland flow routing along the slope as a major controlling factor of "hydrological diversity" (heterogeneity of hydrological behaviours quantified as Shannon diversity index: when overland flow increases at the slope scale hydrological diversity diminishes.

  18. Improving the realism of hydrologic model through multivariate parameter estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rakovec, Oldrich; Kumar, Rohini; Attinger, Sabine; Samaniego, Luis

    2017-04-01

    Increased availability and quality of near real-time observations should improve understanding of predictive skills of hydrological models. Recent studies have shown the limited capability of river discharge data alone to adequately constrain different components of distributed model parameterizations. In this study, the GRACE satellite-based total water storage (TWS) anomaly is used to complement the discharge data with an aim to improve the fidelity of mesoscale hydrologic model (mHM) through multivariate parameter estimation. The study is conducted in 83 European basins covering a wide range of hydro-climatic regimes. The model parameterization complemented with the TWS anomalies leads to statistically significant improvements in (1) discharge simulations during low-flow period, and (2) evapotranspiration estimates which are evaluated against independent (FLUXNET) data. Overall, there is no significant deterioration in model performance for the discharge simulations when complemented by information from the TWS anomalies. However, considerable changes in the partitioning of precipitation into runoff components are noticed by in-/exclusion of TWS during the parameter estimation. A cross-validation test carried out to assess the transferability and robustness of the calibrated parameters to other locations further confirms the benefit of complementary TWS data. In particular, the evapotranspiration estimates show more robust performance when TWS data are incorporated during the parameter estimation, in comparison with the benchmark model constrained against discharge only. This study highlights the value for incorporating multiple data sources during parameter estimation to improve the overall realism of hydrologic model and its applications over large domains. Rakovec, O., Kumar, R., Attinger, S. and Samaniego, L. (2016): Improving the realism of hydrologic model functioning through multivariate parameter estimation. Water Resour. Res., 52, http://dx.doi.org/10

  19. Model based monitoring of stormwater runoff quality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Birch, Heidi; Vezzaro, Luca; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen

    2012-01-01

    Monitoring of micropollutants (MP) in stormwater is essential to evaluate the impacts of stormwater on the receiving aquatic environment. The aim of this study was to investigate how different strategies for monitoring of stormwater quality (combination of model with field sampling) affect the in......) for calibration of the model resulted in the same predicted level but narrower model prediction bounds than calibrations based on volume-proportional samples, allowing a better exploitation of the resources allocated for stormwater quality management.......Monitoring of micropollutants (MP) in stormwater is essential to evaluate the impacts of stormwater on the receiving aquatic environment. The aim of this study was to investigate how different strategies for monitoring of stormwater quality (combination of model with field sampling) affect...... the information obtained about MPs discharged from the monitored system. A dynamic stormwater quality model was calibrated using MP data collected by volume-proportional and passive sampling in a storm drainage system in the outskirts of Copenhagen (Denmark) and a 10-year rain series was used to find annual...

  20. A framework to assess the realism of model structures using hydrological signatures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Euser

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available The use of flexible hydrological model structures for hypothesis testing requires an objective and diagnostic method to identify whether a rainfall-runoff model structure is suitable for a certain catchment. To determine if a model structure is realistic, i.e. if it captures the relevant runoff processes, both performance and consistency are important. We define performance as the ability of a model structure to mimic a specific part of the hydrological behaviour in a specific catchment. This can be assessed based on evaluation criteria, such as the goodness of fit of specific hydrological signatures obtained from hydrological data. Consistency is defined as the ability of a model structure to adequately reproduce several hydrological signatures simultaneously while using the same set of parameter values. In this paper we describe and demonstrate a new evaluation Framework for Assessing the Realism of Model structures (FARM. The evaluation framework tests for both performance and consistency using a principal component analysis on a range of evaluation criteria, all emphasizing different hydrological behaviour. The utility of this evaluation framework is demonstrated in a case study of two small headwater catchments (Maimai, New Zealand, and Wollefsbach, Luxembourg. Eight different hydrological signatures and eleven model structures have been used for this study. The results suggest that some model structures may reveal the same degree of performance for selected evaluation criteria while showing differences in consistency. The results also show that some model structures have a higher performance and consistency than others. The principal component analysis in combination with several hydrological signatures is shown to be useful to visualise the performance and consistency of a model structure for the study catchments. With this framework performance and consistency are evaluated to identify which model structure suits a catchment better

  1. Committee of machine learning predictors of hydrological models uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kayastha, Nagendra; Solomatine, Dimitri

    2014-05-01

    In prediction of uncertainty based on machine learning methods, the results of various sampling schemes namely, Monte Carlo sampling (MCS), generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE), Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), shuffled complex evolution metropolis algorithm (SCEMUA), differential evolution adaptive metropolis (DREAM), particle swarm optimization (PSO) and adaptive cluster covering (ACCO)[1] used to build a predictive models. These models predict the uncertainty (quantiles of pdf) of a deterministic output from hydrological model [2]. Inputs to these models are the specially identified representative variables (past events precipitation and flows). The trained machine learning models are then employed to predict the model output uncertainty which is specific for the new input data. For each sampling scheme three machine learning methods namely, artificial neural networks, model tree, locally weighted regression are applied to predict output uncertainties. The problem here is that different sampling algorithms result in different data sets used to train different machine learning models which leads to several models (21 predictive uncertainty models). There is no clear evidence which model is the best since there is no basis for comparison. A solution could be to form a committee of all models and to sue a dynamic averaging scheme to generate the final output [3]. This approach is applied to estimate uncertainty of streamflows simulation from a conceptual hydrological model HBV in the Nzoia catchment in Kenya. [1] N. Kayastha, D. L. Shrestha and D. P. Solomatine. Experiments with several methods of parameter uncertainty estimation in hydrological modeling. Proc. 9th Intern. Conf. on Hydroinformatics, Tianjin, China, September 2010. [2] D. L. Shrestha, N. Kayastha, and D. P. Solomatine, and R. Price. Encapsulation of parameteric uncertainty statistics by various predictive machine learning models: MLUE method, Journal of Hydroinformatic, in press

  2. Parameter estimation in stochastic rainfall-runoff models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jonsdottir, Harpa; Madsen, Henrik; Palsson, Olafur Petur

    2006-01-01

    A parameter estimation method for stochastic rainfall-runoff models is presented. The model considered in the paper is a conceptual stochastic model, formulated in continuous-discrete state space form. The model is small and a fully automatic optimization is, therefore, possible for estimating all...... the parameter values are optimal for simulation or prediction. The data originates from Iceland and the model is designed for Icelandic conditions, including a snow routine for mountainous areas. The model demands only two input data series, precipitation and temperature and one output data series...

  3. On the deterministic and stochastic use of hydrologic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farmer, William H.; Vogel, Richard M.

    2016-01-01

    Environmental simulation models, such as precipitation-runoff watershed models, are increasingly used in a deterministic manner for environmental and water resources design, planning, and management. In operational hydrology, simulated responses are now routinely used to plan, design, and manage a very wide class of water resource systems. However, all such models are calibrated to existing data sets and retain some residual error. This residual, typically unknown in practice, is often ignored, implicitly trusting simulated responses as if they are deterministic quantities. In general, ignoring the residuals will result in simulated responses with distributional properties that do not mimic those of the observed responses. This discrepancy has major implications for the operational use of environmental simulation models as is shown here. Both a simple linear model and a distributed-parameter precipitation-runoff model are used to document the expected bias in the distributional properties of simulated responses when the residuals are ignored. The systematic reintroduction of residuals into simulated responses in a manner that produces stochastic output is shown to improve the distributional properties of the simulated responses. Every effort should be made to understand the distributional behavior of simulation residuals and to use environmental simulation models in a stochastic manner.

  4. A Precipitation-Runoff Model for the Blackstone River Basin, Massachusetts and Rhode Island

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbaro, Jeffrey R.; Zarriello, Phillip J.

    2007-01-01

    A Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF) precipitation-runoff model of the Blackstone River Basin was developed and calibrated to study the effects of changing land- and water-use patterns on water resources. The 474.5 mi2 Blackstone River Basin in southeastern Massachusetts and northern Rhode Island is experiencing rapid population and commercial growth throughout much of its area. This growth and the corresponding changes in land-use patterns are increasing stress on water resources and raising concerns about the future availability of water to meet residential and commercial needs. Increased withdrawals and wastewater-return flows also could adversely affect aquatic habitat, water quality, and the recreational value of the streams in the basin. The Blackstone River Basin was represented by 19 hydrologic response units (HRUs): 17 types of pervious areas (PERLNDs) established from combinations of surficial geology, land-use categories, and the distribution of public water and public sewer systems, and two types of impervious areas (IMPLNDs). Wetlands were combined with open water and simulated as stream reaches that receive runoff from surrounding pervious and impervious areas. This approach was taken to achieve greater flexibility in calibrating evapotranspiration losses from wetlands during the growing season. The basin was segmented into 50 reaches (RCHRES) to represent junctions at tributaries, major lakes and reservoirs, and drainage areas to streamflow-gaging stations. Climatological, streamflow, water-withdrawal, and wastewater-return data were collected during the study to develop the HSPF model. Climatological data collected at Worcester Regional Airport in Worcester, Massachusetts and T.F. Green Airport in Warwick, Rhode Island, were used for model calibration. A total of 15 streamflow-gaging stations were used in the calibration. Streamflow was measured at eight continuous-record streamflow-gaging stations that are part of the U.S. Geological

  5. Modelling the impact of increasing soil sealing on runoff coefficients at regional scale: a hydropedological approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ungaro Fabrizio

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Soil sealing is the permanent covering of the land surface by buildings, infrastructures or any impermeable artificial material. Beside the loss of fertile soils with a direct impact on food security, soil sealing modifies the hydrological cycle. This can cause an increased flooding risk, due to urban development in potential risk areas and to the increased volumes of runoff. This work estimates the increase of runoff due to sealing following urbanization and land take in the plain of Emilia Romagna (Italy, using the Green and Ampt infiltration model for two rainfall return periods (20 and 200 years in two different years, 1976 and 2008. To this goal a hydropedological approach was adopted in order to characterize soil hydraulic properties via locally calibrated pedotransfer functions (PTF. PTF inputs were estimated via sequential Gaussian simulations coupled with a simple kriging with varying local means, taking into account soil type and dominant land use. Results show that in the study area an average increment of 8.4% in sealed areas due to urbanization and sprawl induces an average increment in surface runoff equal to 3.5 and 2.7% respectively for 20 and 200-years return periods, with a maximum > 20% for highly sealed coast areas.

  6. Characterization of nested watershed hydrologic response from high-resolution rainfall and runoff data in the Baltimore Ecosystem Study LTER

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, A. J.; Lindner, G. A.; Smith, J. A.; Baeck, M. L.; Welty, C.; Miller, J.; Meierdiercks, K. L.

    2011-12-01

    This presentation reports initial results from analysis of data collected at a set of six stream gages representing three nested watershed scales (1-2 km2, 5-6 km2, 14 km2) in Dead Run, a highly impervious suburban watershed in Baltimore County, MD, USA. Streamflow data collected at 5-minute temporal resolution during the period 2007-2011 are compared with 1-km2 gridded and watershed-average precipitation data with 15-minute temporal resolution provided by the HydroNEXRAD project for the Baltimore metropolitan area. The period of overlapping precipitation and runoff data currently available for all six nested watersheds includes calendar years 2008 and 2009. Analyses include mass balance for monthly time periods as well as individual storm events; comparison of hydrologic response among nested watersheds of similar scale and across scales; and characterization of spatial and temporal patterns in storm-period rainfall, drainage network structure, watershed morphometry, and urban infrastructure as potential influences on patterns of hydrologic response. We attempted to isolate the effects of watershed characteristics by selecting a subset of storm events with a rainfall "pulse" defined by minimum accumulation of ~10 mm and >80% of storm-total rainfall arriving within a one-hour period at all six nested subwatersheds. Hydrographs were compared to assess characteristic shape, runoff ratio, and timing. We also examined several longer, more complex storm events with multiple rainfall pulses in order to observe the response at multiple watershed scales. Despite the constraints imposed on storm structure we find that even slight variations in the spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall may be associated with major differences in watershed response (volume and timing) at the 1-2 km2 and 5-6 km2 scales. Some of these variations would be difficult to explain without availability of high-resolution rainfall data. In multiple events we observe that the 5-6 km2 watersheds

  7. The last developments of the airGR R-package, an open source software for rainfall-runoff modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thirel, Guillaume; Delaigue, Olivier; Coron, Laurent; Perrin, Charles; Andréassian, Vazken

    2017-04-01

    Lumped hydrological models are useful and convenient tools for research, engineering and educational purposes. They propose catchment-scale representations of the precipitation-discharge relationship. Thanks to their limited data requirements, they can be easily implemented and run. With such models, it is possible to simulate a number of hydrological key processes over the catchment with limited structural and parametric complexity, typically evapotranspiration, runoff, underground losses, etc. The Hydrology Group at Irstea (Antony) has been developing a suite of rainfall-runoff models over the past 30 years with the main objectives of designing models as efficient as possible in terms of streamflow simulation, applicable to a wide range of catchments and having low data requirements. This resulted in a suite of models running at different time steps (from hourly to annual) applicable for various issues including water balance estimation, forecasting, simulation of impacts and scenario testing. Recently, Irstea has developed an easy-to-use R-package (R Core Team, 2016), called airGR (Coron et al., 2016, 2017), to make these models widely available. It includes: - the water balance annual GR1A model, - the monthly GR2M model, - three versions of the daily model, namely GR4J, GR5J and GR6J, - the hourly GR4H model, - a degree-day snow model CemaNeige. The airGR package has been designed to facilitate the use by non-expert users and allow the addition of evaluation criteria, models or calibration algorithm selected by the end-user. Each model core is coded in FORTRAN to ensure low computational time. The other package functions (i.e. mainly the calibration algorithm and the efficiency criteria) are coded in R. The package is also used for educational purposes. It allows for convenient implementation of model inter-comparisons and large sample hydrology experiments. The airGR package undergoes continuous developments for improving the efficiency, computational time

  8. Modeling the Hydrologic Processes of a Permeable Pavement ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    A permeable pavement system can capture stormwater to reduce runoff volume and flow rate, improve onsite groundwater recharge, and enhance pollutant controls within the site. A new unit process model for evaluating the hydrologic performance of a permeable pavement system has been developed in this study. The developed model can continuously simulate infiltration through the permeable pavement surface, exfiltration from the storage to the surrounding in situ soils, and clogging impacts on infiltration/exfiltration capacity at the pavement surface and the bottom of the subsurface storage unit. The exfiltration modeling component simulates vertical and horizontal exfiltration independently based on Darcy’s formula with the Green-Ampt approximation. The developed model can be arranged with physically-based modeling parameters, such as hydraulic conductivity, Manning’s friction flow parameters, saturated and field capacity volumetric water contents, porosity, density, etc. The developed model was calibrated using high-frequency observed data. The modeled water depths are well matched with the observed values (R2 = 0.90). The modeling results show that horizontal exfiltration through the side walls of the subsurface storage unit is a prevailing factor in determining the hydrologic performance of the system, especially where the storage unit is developed in a long, narrow shape; or with a high risk of bottom compaction and clogging. This paper presents unit

  9. Improved hydrological modeling for remote regions using a combination of observed and simulated precipitation data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    van der Linden, Sandra; Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg

    2003-01-01

    -resolution regional climate model (HIRHAM4) with a mean-field bias correction using observed precipitation. A hydrological model (USAFLOW) was applied to simulate runoff using observed precipitation and a combination of observed and simulated precipitation as input. The method was illustrated for the remote Usa basin......Precipitation, as simulated by climate models, can be used as input in hydrological models, despite possible biases both in the total annual amount simulated as well as the seasonal variation. Here we elaborated on a new technique, which adjusted precipitation data generated by a high......, situated in the European part of Arctic Russia, close to the Ural Mountains. It was shown that runoff simulations agree better with observations when the combined precipitation data set was used than when only observed precipitation was used. This appeared to be because the HIRHAM4 model data compensated...

  10. Slope adjustment of runoff curve number (CN) using Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) Global Digital Elevation Model (GDEM) for Kuantan River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akbari, Abolghasem

    2015-10-01

    The Natural Resources Conservation Service Curve Number (NRCS-CN) method is widely used for predicting direct runoff from rainfall. It employs the hydrologic soil groups and landuse information along with period soil moisture conditions to derive NRCS-CN. This method has been well documented and available in popular rainfall-runoff models such as HEC-HMS, SWAT, SWMM and many more. The Sharply-Williams and Hank methods was used to adjust CN values provided in standard table of TR-55. The Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) Global Digital Elevation Model (GDEM) is used to derive slope map with spatial resolution of 30 m for Kuantan River Basin (KRB). The two investigated method stretches the conventional CN domain to the lower values. The study shows a successful application of remote sensing data and GIS tools in hydrological studies. The result of this work can be used for rainfall-runoff simulation and flood modeling in KRB.

  11. An approach to measure parameter sensitivity in watershed hydrologic modeling

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Abstract Hydrologic responses vary spatially and temporally according to watershed characteristics. In this study, the hydrologic models that we developed earlier...

  12. Subgrid Parameterization of the Soil Moisture Storage Capacity for a Distributed Rainfall-Runoff Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Weijian Guo

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Spatial variability plays an important role in nonlinear hydrologic processes. Due to the limitation of computational efficiency and data resolution, subgrid variability is usually assumed to be uniform for most grid-based rainfall-runoff models, which leads to the scale-dependence of model performances. In this paper, the scale effect on the Grid-Xinanjiang model was examined. The bias of the estimation of precipitation, runoff, evapotranspiration and soil moisture at the different grid scales, along with the scale-dependence of the effective parameters, highlights the importance of well representing the subgrid variability. This paper presents a subgrid parameterization method to incorporate the subgrid variability of the soil storage capacity, which is a key variable that controls runoff generation and partitioning in the Grid-Xinanjiang model. In light of the similar spatial pattern and physical basis, the soil storage capacity is correlated with the topographic index, whose spatial distribution can more readily be measured. A beta distribution is introduced to represent the spatial distribution of the soil storage capacity within the grid. The results derived from the Yanduhe Basin show that the proposed subgrid parameterization method can effectively correct the watershed soil storage capacity curve. Compared to the original Grid-Xinanjiang model, the model performances are quite consistent at the different grid scales when the subgrid variability is incorporated. This subgrid parameterization method reduces the recalibration necessity when the Digital Elevation Model (DEM resolution is changed. Moreover, it improves the potential for the application of the distributed model in the ungauged basin.

  13. Tank Model Application for Runoff and Infiltration Analysis on Sub-Watersheds in Lalindu River in South East Sulawesi Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wirdhana Ahmad, Sitti

    2017-05-01

    Improper land management often causes flood, this is due to uncontrolled runoff. Runoff is affected by the management of the land cover. The phenomena also occurred in South East Sulawesi, Indonesia. This study aims to analyze the flow rate of water in watershed of Lalindu River in North Konawe, South East Sulawesi by using a Tank Model. The model determined the magnitude of the hydrologic runoff, infiltration capacity and soil water content several land uses were evaluated in the study area. The experimental and calculation results show that the runoff in the forest is 2,639.21 mm/year, in the reed is 2,517.05 mm/year, in the oil palm with a slope more than 45% is 2,715.36 mm/year, and in the oil palm with slopes less than 45% is 2,709.59 mm/year. Infiltration in the forest is 30.70 mm/year, in the reed is 7.51 mm/year, in the palm oil with a slope more than 45% is 24.13 mm/year and in the palm oil with slopes less than 45% is 29.67 mm/year. Runoff contributes to stream flow for water availability.

  14. Large-scale hydrology in Europe : observed patterns and model performance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gudmundsson, Lukas

    2011-06-15

    In a changing climate, terrestrial water storages are of great interest as water availability impacts key aspects of ecosystem functioning. Thus, a better understanding of the variations of wet and dry periods will contribute to fully grasp processes of the earth system such as nutrient cycling and vegetation dynamics. Currently, river runoff from small, nearly natural, catchments is one of the few variables of the terrestrial water balance that is regularly monitored with detailed spatial and temporal coverage on large scales. River runoff, therefore, provides a foundation to approach European hydrology with respect to observed patterns on large scales, with regard to the ability of models to capture these.The analysis of observed river flow from small catchments, focused on the identification and description of spatial patterns of simultaneous temporal variations of runoff. These are dominated by large-scale variations of climatic variables but also altered by catchment processes. It was shown that time series of annual low, mean and high flows follow the same atmospheric drivers. The observation that high flows are more closely coupled to large scale atmospheric drivers than low flows, indicates the increasing influence of catchment properties on runoff under dry conditions. Further, it was shown that the low-frequency variability of European runoff is dominated by two opposing centres of simultaneous variations, such that dry years in the north are accompanied by wet years in the south.Large-scale hydrological models are simplified representations of our current perception of the terrestrial water balance on large scales. Quantification of the models strengths and weaknesses is the prerequisite for a reliable interpretation of simulation results. Model evaluations may also enable to detect shortcomings with model assumptions and thus enable a refinement of the current perception of hydrological systems. The ability of a multi model ensemble of nine large

  15. Putting hydrological modelling practice to the test

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Melsen, Lieke Anna

    2017-01-01

    Six steps can be distinguished in the process of hydrological modelling: the perceptual model (deciding on the processes), the conceptual model (deciding on the equations), the procedural model (get the code to run on a computer), calibration (identify the parameters), evaluation (confronting output

  16. Rainfall-runoff modelling of the Okavango River catchment to assess impacts of land use change on runoff and downstream ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milzow, Christian; Bauer-Gottwein, Peter

    2010-05-01

    source of economic income for Botswana. A second hydrological model simulating flow through the wetlands is used to study the impact of catchment runoff changes on the hydrology and ecology of the wetlands. The final goal of the project is to demonstrate the relation between economic benefits of water abstractions in the upstream and downstream environmental impact. Furthermore the results will provide a basis for defining adequate compensations for upstream stakeholders who forego benefits of agricultural intensification to ensure the conservation of downstream ecosystem services.

  17. Advancements in Hydrology and Erosion Process Understanding and Post-Fire Hydrologic and Erosion Model Development for Semi-Arid Landscapes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, C. Jason; Pierson, Frederick B.; Al-Hamdan, Osama Z.; Robichaud, Peter R.; Nearing, Mark A.; Hernandez, Mariano; Weltz, Mark A.; Spaeth, Kenneth E.; Goodrich, David C.

    2017-04-01

    Fire activity continues to increase in semi-arid regions around the globe. Private and governmental land management entities are challenged with predicting and mitigating post-fire hydrologic and erosion responses on these landscapes. For more than a decade, a team of scientists with the US Department of Agriculture has collaborated on extensive post-fire hydrologic field research and the application of field research to development of post-fire hydrology and erosion predictive technologies. Experiments funded through this research investigated the impacts of fire on vegetation and soils and the effects of these fire-induced changes on infiltration, runoff generation, erodibility, and soil erosion processes. The distribution of study sites spans diverse topography across grassland, shrubland, and woodland landscapes throughout the western United States. Knowledge gleaned from the extensive field experiments was applied to develop and enhance physically-based models for hillslope- to watershed-scale runoff and erosion prediction. Our field research and subsequent data syntheses have identified key knowledge gaps and challenges regarding post-fire hydrology and erosion modeling. Our presentation details some consistent trends across a diverse domain and varying landscape conditions based on our extensive field campaigns. We demonstrate how field data have advanced our understanding of post-fire hydrology and erosion for semi-arid landscapes and highlight remaining key knowledge gaps. Lastly, we briefly show how our well-replicated experimental methodologies have contributed to advancements in hydrologic and erosion model development for the post-fire environment.

  18. Runoff modeling of the Mara River using Satellite Observed Soil ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    this study demonstrates the potential role operational satellite based soil moisture and rainfall products can play in quantifying ... INTRODUCTION. Recent studies on the use of satellite observed soil moisture for hydrological modeling have shown that ..... M. E. McClain of UNESCO Institute for Water Education for facilitating ...

  19. Simulation of daily streamflow for nine river basins in eastern Iowa using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haj, Adel E.; Christiansen, Daniel E.; Hutchinson, Kasey J.

    2015-10-14

    The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Iowa Department of Natural Resources, constructed Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System models to estimate daily streamflow for nine river basins in eastern Iowa that drain into the Mississippi River. The models are part of a suite of methods for estimating daily streamflow at ungaged sites. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System is a deterministic, distributed- parameter, physical-process-based modeling system developed to evaluate the response of streamflow and general drainage basin hydrology to various combinations of climate and land use. Calibration and validation periods used in each basin mostly were October 1, 2002, through September 30, 2012, but differed depending on the period of record available for daily mean streamflow measurements at U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations.

  20. Storm Water Management Model Reference Manual Volume I, Hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    SWMM is a dynamic rainfall-runoff simulation model used for single event or long-term (continuous) simulation of runoff quantity and quality from primarily urban areas. The runoff component of SWMM operates on a collection of subcatchment areas that receive precipitation and gene...

  1. Flexibility on storage-release based distributed hydrologic modeling with object-oriented approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, Kwangmin; Merwade, Venkatesh; Chun, Jong Ahn; Timlin, Dennis

    2016-09-01

    With the availability of advanced hydrologic data in public domain such as remote sensed and climate change scenario data, there is a need for a modeling framework that is capable of using these data to simulate and extend hydrologic processes with multidisciplinary approaches for sustainable water resources management. To address this need, a storage-release based distributed hydrologic model (STORE DHM) is developed based on an object-oriented approach. The model is tested for demonstrating model flexibility and extensibility to know how to well integrate object-oriented approach to further hydrologic research issues, e.g., reconstructing missing precipitation in this study, without changing its main frame. Moreover, the STORE DHM is applied to simulate hydrological processes with multiple classes in the Nanticoke watershed. This study also describes a conceptual and structural framework of object-oriented inheritance and aggregation characteristics under the STORE DHM. In addition, NearestMP (missing value estimation based on nearest neighborhood regression) and KernelMP (missing value estimation based on Kernel Function) are proposed for evaluating STORE DHM flexibility. And then, STORE DHM runoff hydrographs compared with NearestMP and KernelMP runoff hydrographs. Overall results from these comparisons show promising hydrograph outputs generated by the proposed two classes. Consequently, this study suggests that STORE DHM with an object-oriented approach will be a comprehensive water resources modeling tools by adding additional classes for toward developing through its flexibility and extensibility.

  2. CLASSIC: a semi-distributed rainfall-runoff modelling system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes the development of a semi-distributed conceptual rainfall–runoff model, originally formulated to simulate impacts of climate and land-use change on flood frequency. The model has component modules for soil moisture balance, drainage response and channel routing and is grid-based to allow direct incorporation of GIS- and Digital Terrain Model (DTM-derived data sets into the initialisation of parameter values. Catchment runoff is derived from the aggregation of components of flow from the drainage module within each grid square and from total routed flow from all grid squares. Calibration is performed sequentially for the three modules using different objective functions for each stage. A key principle of the modelling system is the concept of nested calibration, which ensures that all flows simulated for points within a large catchment are spatially consistent. The modelling system is robust and has been applied successfully at different spatial scales to three large catchments in the UK, including comparison of observed and modelled flood frequency and flow duration curves, simulation of flows for uncalibrated catchments and identification of components of flow within a modelled hydrograph. The role of such a model in integrated catchment studies is outlined.

  3. Development and evaluation of a watershed-scale hybrid hydrologic model

    OpenAIRE

    Cho, Younghyun

    2016-01-01

    A watershed-scale hybrid hydrologic model (Distributed-Clark), which is a lumped conceptual and distributed feature model, was developed to predict spatially distributed short- and long-term rainfall runoff generation and routing using relatively simple methodologies and state-of-the-art spatial data in a GIS environment. In Distributed-Clark, spatially distributed excess rainfall estimated with the SCS curve number method and a GIS-based set of separated unit hydrographs (spatially distribut...

  4. An Emotional ANN (EANN) approach to modeling rainfall-runoff process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nourani, Vahid

    2017-01-01

    This paper presents the first hydrological implementation of Emotional Artificial Neural Network (EANN), as a new generation of Artificial Intelligence-based models for daily rainfall-runoff (r-r) modeling of the watersheds. Inspired by neurophysiological form of brain, in addition to conventional weights and bias, an EANN includes simulated emotional parameters aimed at improving the network learning process. EANN trained by a modified version of back-propagation (BP) algorithm was applied to single and multi-step-ahead runoff forecasting of two watersheds with two distinct climatic conditions. Also to evaluate the ability of EANN trained by smaller training data set, three data division strategies with different number of training samples were considered for the training purpose. The overall comparison of the obtained results of the r-r modeling indicates that the EANN could outperform the conventional feed forward neural network (FFNN) model up to 13% and 34% in terms of training and verification efficiency criteria, respectively. The superiority of EANN over classic ANN is due to its ability to recognize and distinguish dry (rainless days) and wet (rainy days) situations using hormonal parameters of the artificial emotional system.

  5. On the Use of Models in Hydrology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Marsily, G.

    1994-01-01

    This discussion article addresses the nature of models used in hydrology. It proposes a minimalist classification of models into two categories: models built on data from observations of the processes involved, and those for which there are no observation data on any of these processes, at the scale of interest. (LZ)

  6. Modelling catchment hydrology within a GIS based SVAT-model framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Ludwig

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available The physically-based soil-vegetation-atmosphere-transfer model PROMET (PRocess-Oriented Model for Evapo Transpiration developed at the Institute of Geography, University of Munich, is applied to the Ammer basin (approx. 600 km2 in the alpine foreland of Germany. The hourly actual evapotranspiration rate is calculated for a 14-year time series. A rainfall-runoff model, based on an enhanced distributed TOPMODEL structure, is linked to the SVAT-model in order to provide a hydrological model covering the water-cycle at the basin scale in a 30m-resolution. The model is driven with meteorological data taken from regular synoptic stations of the German Weather Service. Soil physical and plant physiological parameters for the SVAT model were either measured at the test site or taken from literature. The topographical parameters were derived from detailed digital terrain analysis. The study intends to combine, within a GIS-based model framework, the understanding and application of physical processes inherent in the basin such as the spatial distribution and temporal evolution of evapotranspiration and runoff patterns. The influence of an evapotranspiration coefficient ETcoeff, implemented in the formulation of the soil-topographic-index, to account for seasonal dynamics in distributed runoff formation due to the annual course of vegetation activity is investigated. The SVAT model shows convincing results in the long-term water balance description with a mean annual deviation of less then 6% over a fourteen year time period. Introducing the evapotranspiration-soil-topographic-index αET leads to a considerable improvement; the runoff model component simulating the daily runoff over the year reaches an efficiency of ε = 0.92. Keywords: Water cycle; Geographic Information System; SVAT; TOPMODEL

  7. Review article: Hydrological modeling in glacierized catchments of central Asia - status and challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yaning; Li, Weihong; Fang, Gonghuan; Li, Zhi

    2017-02-01

    Meltwater from glacierized catchments is one of the most important water supplies in central Asia. Therefore, the effects of climate change on glaciers and snow cover will have increasingly significant consequences for runoff. Hydrological modeling has become an indispensable research approach to water resources management in large glacierized river basins, but there is a lack of focus in the modeling of glacial discharge. This paper reviews the status of hydrological modeling in glacierized catchments of central Asia, discussing the limitations of the available models and extrapolating these to future challenges and directions. After reviewing recent efforts, we conclude that the main sources of uncertainty in assessing the regional hydrological impacts of climate change are the unreliable and incomplete data sets and the lack of understanding of the hydrological regimes of glacierized catchments of central Asia. Runoff trends indicate a complex response to changes in climate. For future variation of water resources, it is essential to quantify the responses of hydrologic processes to both climate change and shrinking glaciers in glacierized catchments, and scientific focus should be on reducing uncertainties linked to these processes.

  8. Influence of rainfall spatial variability on rainfall-runoff modelling: Benefit of a simulation approach?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emmanuel, I.; Andrieu, H.; Leblois, E.; Janey, N.; Payrastre, O.

    2015-12-01

    No consensus has yet been reached regarding the influence of rainfall spatial variability on runoff modelling at catchment outlets. To eliminate modelling and measurement errors, in addition to controlling rainfall variability and both the characteristics and hydrological behaviour of catchments, we propose to proceed by simulation. We have developed a simulation chain that combines a stream network model, a rainfall simulator and a distributed hydrological model (with four production functions and a distributed transfer function). Our objective here is to use this simulation chain as a simplified test bed in order to better understand the impact of the spatial variability of rainfall forcing. We applied the chain to contrasted situations involving catchments ranging from a few tens to several hundreds of square km2, thus corresponding to urban and peri-urban catchments for which surface runoff constitutes the dominant process. The results obtained confirm that the proposed simulation approach is helpful to better understand the influence of rainfall spatial variability on the catchment response. We have shown that significant dispersion exists not only between the various simulation scenarios (defined by a rainfall configuration and a catchment configuration), but also within each simulation scenario. These results show that the organisation of rainfall during the study event over the study catchment plays an important role, leading us to examine rainfall variability indexes capable of summarising the influence of rainfall spatial organisation on the catchment response. Thanks to the simulation chain, we have tested the variability indexes of Zoccatelli et al. (2010) and improved them by proposing two other indexes.

  9. Propagation of hydrological modeling uncertainties on bed load transport simulations in steep mountain streams

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eichner, Bernhard; Koller, Julian; Kammerlander, Johannes; Schöber, Johannes; Achleitner, Stefan

    2017-04-01

    As mountain streams are sources of both, water and sediment, they are strongly influencing the whole downstream river network. Besides large flood flow events, the continuous transport of sediments during the year is in the focus of this work. Since small mountain streams are usually not measured, spatial distributed hydrological models are used to assess the internal discharges triggering the sediment transport. In general model calibration will never be perfect and is focused on specific criteria such as mass balance or peak flow, etc. The remaining uncertainties influence the subsequent applications, where the simulation results are used. The presented work focuses on the question, how modelling uncertainties in hydrological modelling impact the subsequent simulation of sediment transport. The applied auto calibration by means of MonteCarlo Simulation optimizes the model parameters for different aspects (efficiency criteria) of the runoff time series. In this case, we investigated the impacts of different hydrological criteria on a subsequent bed load transport simulation in catchment of the Längentaler Bach, a small catchment in the Stubai Alps. The used hydrologic model HQSim is a physically based semi-distributed water balance model. Different hydrologic response units (HRU), which are characterized by elevation, orientation, vegetation, soil type and depth, drain with various delay into specified river reaches. The runoff results of the Monte-Carlo simulation are evaluated in comparison to runoff gauge, where water is collected by the Tiroler Wasserkraft AG (TIWAG). Using the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) on events and main runoff period (summer), the weighted root mean squared error (RMSE) on duration curve and a combination of different criteria, a set of best fit parametrization with varying runoff series was received as input for the bed load transport simulation. These simulations are performed with sedFlow, a tool especially developed for bed load

  10. Parameterization of a Hydrological Model for a Large, Ungauged Urban Catchment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gerald Krebs

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Urbanization leads to the replacement of natural areas by impervious surfaces and affects the catchment hydrological cycle with adverse environmental impacts. Low impact development tools (LID that mimic hydrological processes of natural areas have been developed and applied to mitigate these impacts. Hydrological simulations are one possibility to evaluate the LID performance but the associated small-scale processes require a highly spatially distributed and explicit modeling approach. However, detailed data for model development are often not available for large urban areas, hampering the model parameterization. In this paper we propose a methodology to parameterize a hydrological model to a large, ungauged urban area by maintaining at the same time a detailed surface discretization for direct parameter manipulation for LID simulation and a firm reliance on available data for model conceptualization. Catchment delineation was based on a high-resolution digital elevation model (DEM and model parameterization relied on a novel model regionalization approach. The impact of automated delineation and model regionalization on simulation results was evaluated for three monitored study catchments (5.87–12.59 ha. The simulated runoff peak was most sensitive to accurate catchment discretization and calibration, while both the runoff volume and the fit of the hydrograph were less affected.

  11. Bayesian Assessment of the Uncertainties of Estimates of a Conceptual Rainfall-Runoff Model Parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva, F. E. O. E.; Naghettini, M. D. C.; Fernandes, W.

    2014-12-01

    This paper evaluated the uncertainties associated with the estimation of the parameters of a conceptual rainfall-runoff model, through the use of Bayesian inference techniques by Monte Carlo simulation. The Pará River sub-basin, located in the upper São Francisco river basin, in southeastern Brazil, was selected for developing the studies. In this paper, we used the Rio Grande conceptual hydrologic model (EHR/UFMG, 2001) and the Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation method named DREAM (VRUGT, 2008a). Two probabilistic models for the residues were analyzed: (i) the classic [Normal likelihood - r ≈ N (0, σ²)]; and (ii) a generalized likelihood (SCHOUPS & VRUGT, 2010), in which it is assumed that the differences between observed and simulated flows are correlated, non-stationary, and distributed as a Skew Exponential Power density. The assumptions made for both models were checked to ensure that the estimation of uncertainties in the parameters was not biased. The results showed that the Bayesian approach proved to be adequate to the proposed objectives, enabling and reinforcing the importance of assessing the uncertainties associated with hydrological modeling.

  12. Synchronising data sources and filling gaps by global hydrological modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pimentel, Rafael; Crochemore, Louise; Hasan, Abdulghani; Pineda, Luis; Isberg, Kristina; Arheimer, Berit

    2017-04-01

    The advances in remote sensing in the last decades combined with the creation of different open hydrological databases have generated a very large amount of useful information for global hydrological modelling. Working with this huge number of datasets to set up a global hydrological model can constitute challenges such as multiple data formats and big heterogeneity on spatial and temporal resolutions. Different initiatives have made effort to homogenize some of these data sources, i.e. GRDC (Global Runoff Data Center), HYDROSHEDS (SHuttle Elevation Derivatives at multiple Scales), GLWD (Global Lake and Wetland Database) for runoff, watershed delineation and water bodies respectively. However, not all the related issues are covered or homogenously solved at the global scale and new information is continuously available to complete the current ones. This work presents synchronising efforts to make use of different global data sources needed to set up the semi-distributed hydrological model HYPE (Hydrological Predictions for the Environment) at the global scale. These data sources included: topography for watershed delineation, gauging stations of river flow, and extention of lakes, flood plains and land cover classes. A new database with approximately 100 000 subbasins, with an average area of 1000 km2, was created. Subbasin delineation was done combining Global Width Database for Large River (GWD-LR), SRTM high-resolution elevation data and a number of forced points of interest (gauging station of river flow, lakes, reservoirs, urban areas, nuclear plants and areas with high risk of flooding). Regarding flow data, the locations of GRDC stations were checked or placed along the river network when necessary, and completed with available information from national water services in data-sparse regions. A screening of doublet stations and associated time series was necessary to efficiently combine the two types of data sources. A total number about 21 000 stations were

  13. Enabling high-quality observations of surface imperviousness for water runoff modelling from unmanned aerial vehicles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tokarczyk, Piotr; Leitao, Joao Paulo; Rieckermann, Jörg; Schindler, Konrad; Blumensaat, Frank

    2015-04-01

    Modelling rainfall-runoff in urban areas is increasingly applied to support flood risk assessment particularly against the background of a changing climate and an increasing urbanization. These models typically rely on high-quality data for rainfall and surface characteristics of the area. While recent research in urban drainage has been focusing on providing spatially detailed rainfall data, the technological advances in remote sensing that ease the acquisition of detailed land-use information are less prominently discussed within the community. The relevance of such methods increase as in many parts of the globe, accurate land-use information is generally lacking, because detailed image data is unavailable. Modern unmanned air vehicles (UAVs) allow acquiring high-resolution images on a local level at comparably lower cost, performing on-demand repetitive measurements, and obtaining a degree of detail tailored for the purpose of the study. In this study, we investigate for the first time the possibility to derive high-resolution imperviousness maps for urban areas from UAV imagery and to use this information as input for urban drainage models. To do so, an automatic processing pipeline with a modern classification method is tested and applied in a state-of-the-art urban drainage modelling exercise. In a real-life case study in the area of Lucerne, Switzerland, we compare imperviousness maps generated from a consumer micro-UAV and standard large-format aerial images acquired by the Swiss national mapping agency (swisstopo). After assessing their correctness, we perform an end-to-end comparison, in which they are used as an input for an urban drainage model. Then, we evaluate the influence which different image data sources and their processing methods have on hydrological and hydraulic model performance. We analyze the surface runoff of the 307 individual sub-catchments regarding relevant attributes, such as peak runoff and volume. Finally, we evaluate the model

  14. Hydrological excitation of polar motion by different variables from the GLDAS models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winska, Malgorzata; Nastula, Jolanta; Salstein, David

    2017-12-01

    Continental hydrological loading by land water, snow and ice is a process that is important for the full understanding of the excitation of polar motion. In this study, we compute different estimations of hydrological excitation functions of polar motion (as hydrological angular momentum, HAM) using various variables from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) models of the land-based hydrosphere. The main aim of this study is to show the influence of variables from different hydrological processes including evapotranspiration, runoff, snowmelt and soil moisture, on polar motion excitations at annual and short-term timescales. Hydrological excitation functions of polar motion are determined using selected variables of these GLDAS realizations. Furthermore, we use time-variable gravity field solutions from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) to determine the hydrological mass effects on polar motion excitation. We first conduct an intercomparison of the maps of variations of regional hydrological excitation functions, timing and phase diagrams of different regional and global HAMs. Next, we estimate the hydrological signal in geodetically observed polar motion excitation as a residual by subtracting the contributions of atmospheric angular momentum and oceanic angular momentum. Finally, the hydrological excitations are compared with those hydrological signals determined from residuals of the observed polar motion excitation series. The results will help us understand the relative importance of polar motion excitation within the individual hydrological processes, based on hydrological modeling. This method will allow us to estimate how well the polar motion excitation budget in the seasonal and inter-annual spectral ranges can be closed.

  15. Coupling machine learning with mechanistic models to study runoff production and river flow at the hillslope scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marçais, J.; Gupta, H. V.; De Dreuzy, J. R.; Troch, P. A. A.

    2016-12-01

    Geomorphological structure and geological heterogeneity of hillslopes are major controls on runoff responses. The diversity of hillslopes (morphological shapes and geological structures) on one hand, and the highly non linear runoff mechanism response on the other hand, make it difficult to transpose what has been learnt at one specific hillslope to another. Therefore, making reliable predictions on runoff appearance or river flow for a given hillslope is a challenge. Applying a classic model calibration (based on inverse problems technique) requires doing it for each specific hillslope and having some data available for calibration. When applied to thousands of cases it cannot always be promoted. Here we propose a novel modeling framework based on coupling process based models with data based approach. First we develop a mechanistic model, based on hillslope storage Boussinesq equations (Troch et al. 2003), able to model non linear runoff responses to rainfall at the hillslope scale. Second we set up a model database, representing thousands of non calibrated simulations. These simulations investigate different hillslope shapes (real ones obtained by analyzing 5m digital elevation model of Brittany and synthetic ones), different hillslope geological structures (i.e. different parametrizations) and different hydrologic forcing terms (i.e. different infiltration chronicles). Then, we use this model library to train a machine learning model on this physically based database. Machine learning model performance is then assessed by a classic validating phase (testing it on new hillslopes and comparing machine learning with mechanistic outputs). Finally we use this machine learning model to learn what are the hillslope properties controlling runoffs. This methodology will be further tested combining synthetic datasets with real ones.

  16. Geographic Information System and Remote Sensing Approach with Hydrologic Rational Model for Flood Event Analysis in Jakarta

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aditya, M. R.; Hernina, R.; Rokhmatuloh

    2017-12-01

    Rapid development in Jakarta which generates more impervious surface has reduced the amount of rainfall infiltration into soil layer and increases run-off. In some events, continuous high rainfall intensity could create sudden flood in Jakarta City. This article used rainfall data of Jakarta during 10 February 2015 to compute rainfall intensity and then interpolate it with ordinary kriging technique. Spatial distribution of rainfall intensity then overlaid with run-off coefficient based on certain land use type of the study area. Peak run-off within each cell resulted from hydrologic rational model then summed for the whole study area to generate total peak run-off. For this study area, land use types consisted of 51.9 % industrial, 37.57% parks, and 10.54% residential with estimated total peak run-off 6.04 m3/sec, 0.39 m3/sec, and 0.31 m3/sec, respectively.

  17. Impact of precipitation spatial resolution on the hydrological response of an integrated distributed water resources model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fu, Suhua; Sonnenborg, Torben; Jensen, Karsten Høgh

    2011-01-01

    Precipitation is a key input variable to hydrological models, and the spatial variability of the input is expected to impact the hydrological response predicted by a distributed model. In this study, the effect of spatial resolution of precipitation on runoff , recharge and groundwater head...... of the total catchment and runoff discharge hydrograph at watershed outlet. On the other hand, groundwater recharge and groundwater head were both aff ected. The impact of the spatial resolution of precipitation input is reduced with increasing catchment size. The effect on stream discharge is relatively low......, groundwater recharge, and groundwater head were also affected by the method for correction of systematic errors in precipitation measurements. The results underscored the importance of using a spatial resolution of the precipitation input that captures the overall precipitation characteristics...

  18. Hydrological modeling of the Mun River basin in Thailand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akter, Aysha; Babel, Mukand S.

    2012-07-01

    SummarySources of pollution in river basins are increasing due to rapid changes in land uses and excessive nutrient application to crops which lead to degraded instream water quality. In this connection, the Mun River basin, one of the important and largest river basins in Thailand, has been studied. Comparative figures of nutrients in the Mun's water over a decade showed an increased total nitrogen (TN) and phosphorus (TP) ratio in the Lower Mun region (TN:TP > 14). Laboratory analysis of weekly water samples showed a realistic nutrient response when daily rainfall was compared to the seasonal water quality data collected by the Pollution Control Department (PCD). The Hydrologic Simulation Program - FORTRAN (HSPF) was calibrated and used to assess the effects of different land uses on river water quality. Model parameters related to hydrology and sediment were calibrated and validated using relevant measurements by the Royal Irrigation Department (RID). With a reasonable and acceptable model performance (r2 = 0.62), the highest simulated runoff was observed in urban areas. The trend of agricultural land (as a percentage of total area) - total nitrogen showed a linear relationship of a good correlation (i.e. r2 = 0.85). Based on the findings, it can be concluded that this model is expected to provide vital information for developing suitable land management policies and strategies to improve river water quality.

  19. Evaluating spatial patterns in hydrological modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Koch, Julian

    is not fully exploited by current modelling frameworks due to the lack of suitable spatial performance metrics. Furthermore, the traditional model evaluation using discharge is found unsuitable to lay confidence on the predicted catchment inherent spatial variability of hydrological processes in a fully...... the contiguous United Sates (10^6 km2). To this end, the thesis at hand applies a set of spatial performance metrics on various hydrological variables, namely land-surface-temperature (LST), evapotranspiration (ET) and soil moisture. The inspiration for the applied metrics is found in related fields...

  20. Implementation of evapotranspiration data assimilation with catchment scale distributed hydrological model via an ensemble Kalman Filter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zou, Lei; Zhan, Chesheng; Xia, Jun; Wang, Tiejun; Gippel, Christopher J.

    2017-06-01

    Terrestrial actual evapotranspiration (ETa) is a crucial component of terrestrial water cycles. The most common methods of estimating catchment-scale ETa are remote sensing and hydrological models. These methods have limitations when applied at the catchment scale due to coarse resolutions of data and uncertainties in model predictions. Data assimilation techniques that combine complementary information from hydrological models and observed data can overcome some of the limitations. These techniques have been used in many hydrological modeling studies, but few have applied data assimilation to ETa within a distributed precipitation-runoff catchment modeling framework. This paper proposes a catchment scale ETa data assimilation technique (termed ET-DA) that assimilates remotely sensed ETa data into a distributed time-variant gain hydrological model (DTVGM-ET) for improving hydrological model simulations. The DTVGM-ET improved the ETa computation on the basis of a nonlinear soil water availability function to establish an explicit time response relationship between ETa and soil moisture for implementing the ETa assimilation. The proposed ET-DA system was tested in the Upper Huai River Basin (UHRB), China using data from 2000 to 2012. Through synthetic simulation experiments, the capability of ET-DA for obtaining accurate, continuous time series of ETa estimates and achieving assimilation feedback on soil moisture and streamflow was examined. The results demonstrated that ET-DA provided improved regional ETa monitoring capability, and assimilation of ETa into the hydrological model led to improved model predictions of soil moisture and streamflow.

  1. Grey Box Modelling of Hydrological Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thordarson, Fannar Ørn

    The main topic of the thesis is grey box modelling of hydrologic systems, as well as formulation and assessment of their embedded uncertainties. Grey box model is a combination of a white box model, a physically-based model that is traditionally formulated using deterministic ordinary differential...... represent a stochastic state space model. In the grey box model the total noise is divided into a measurement noise and a process noise. The process noise is due to model approximations, undiscovered input and uncertainties in the input series. Estimates of the process noise can be used to highlight...... in the model, or formulation of process noise can be considered so that it meets the physical limits of the hydrological system and give an adequate description of the embedded uncertainty in model structure. The thesis consists of two parts: a summary report and a part which contains six scientific papers...

  2. Hydrological Modeling and Repeatability with Brokering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Easton, Z. M.; Collick, A.; Srinivasan, R.; Braeckel, A.; Nativi, S.; McAlister, C.; Wright, D. J.; Khalsa, S. J. S.; Fuka, D.

    2014-12-01

    Data brokering aims to provide those in the hydrological sciences with access to relevant data to represent physical, biological, and chemical characteristics researchers need to accelerate discovery in their domain. Environmental models are useful tools to understand the behavior of hydrological systems. Unfortunately, parameterization of these models requires many different data sources from different disciplines (e.g., atmospheric, geoscience, ecology). In hydrological modeling, the traditional procedure for model initialization starts with obtaining elevation models, land-use characterizations, soils maps, and weather data. It is often the researcher's past experience with these datasets that determines which datasets will be used in a study, and often newer, more suitable data products exist. An added complexity is that various science communities have differing data formats, storage protocols and manipulation methods, which makes use by a non domain scientist difficult and time consuming. We propose data brokering as a means to address several of these challenges. We present two test case scenarios in which researchers attempt to reproduce hydrological model results using 1) general internet based data gathering techniques, and 2) a scientific data brokering interface. We show that data brokering increases the efficiency with which data are collected, models are initialized, and results are analyzed. As an added benefit, it appears brokering significantly increases the repeatability of a study.

  3. Coupled hydrologic and hydraulic modeling of Upper Niger River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fleischmann, Ayan; Siqueira, Vinícius; Paris, Adrien; Collischonn, Walter; Paiva, Rodrigo; Gossett, Marielle; Pontes, Paulo; Calmant, Stephane; Biancamaria, Sylvain; Crétaux, Jean-François; Tanimoune, Bachir

    2017-04-01

    The Upper Niger Basin is located in Western Africa, flowing from Guinea Highlands towards the Sahel region. In this area lies the seasonally inundated Niger Inland Delta, which supports important environmental services such as habitats for wildlife, climate and flood regulation, as well as large fishery and agricultural areas. In this study, we present the application of MGB-IPH large scale hydrologic and hydrodynamic model for the Upper Niger Basin, totaling c.a. 650,000 km2 and set up until the city of Niamey in Niger. The model couples hydrological vertical balance and runoff generation with hydrodynamic flood wave propagation, by allowing infiltration from floodplains into soil column as well as representing backwater effects and floodplain storage throughout flat areas such as the Inland Delta. The model is forced with TRMM 3B42 daily precipitation and Climate Research Unit (CRU) climatology for the period 2000-2010, and was calibrated against in-situ discharge gauges and validated with in-situ water level, remotely sensed estimations of flooded areas (classification of MODIS imagery) and satellite altimetry (JASON-2 mission). Model results show good predictions for calibrated daily discharge and validated water level and altimetry at stations both upstream and downstream of the delta (Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency>0.7 for all stations), as well as for flooded areas within the delta region (ENS=0.5; r2=0.8), allowing a good representation of flooding dynamics basinwide and simulation of flooding behavior of both perennial (e.g., Niger main stem) and ephemeral rivers (e.g., Niger Red Flood tributaries in Sahel). Coupling between hydrology and hydrodynamic processes indicates an important feedback between floodplain and soil water storage that allows high evapotranspiration rates even after the flood passage around the inner delta area. Also, representation of water retention in floodplain channels and distributaries in the inner delta (e.g., Diaka river

  4. Modeling Hydrological Extremes in the Anthropocene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Martinez, Fabian; Kalantari, Zahra; Viglione, Alberto

    2017-04-01

    Hydrological studies have investigated human impacts on hydrological extremes, i.e. droughts and floods, while social studies have explored human responses and adaptation to them. Yet, there is still little understanding about the dynamics resulting from two-way feedbacks, i.e. both impacts and responses. Traditional risk assessment methods therefore fail to assess future dynamics, and thus risk reduction strategies built on these methods can lead to unintended consequences in the medium-long term. Here we review the dynamics resulting from the reciprocal links between society and hydrological extremes, and describe initial efforts to model floods and droughts in the Anthropocene. In particular, we first discuss the need for a novel approach to explicitly account for human interactions with both hydrological extremes, and then present a stylized model simulating the reciprocal effects between droughts, foods and reservoir operation rules. Unprecedented opportunities offered by the growing availability of global data and worldwide archives to uncover the mutual shaping of hydrological extremes and society across places and scales are also discussed.

  5. Modeling runoff and erosion risk in a~small steep cultivated watershed using different data sources: from on-site measurements to farmers' perceptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Auvet, B.; Lidon, B.; Kartiwa, B.; Le Bissonnais, Y.; Poussin, J.-C.

    2015-09-01

    slopes, and revealed the critical role of tillage direction. Calibrating and validating models using in situ measurements, observations and farmers' perceptions made it possible to represent runoff and erosion risk despite the initial scarcity of hydrological data. Even if the models mainly provided orders of magnitude and qualitative information, they significantly improved our understanding of the watershed dynamics. In addition, the information produced by such models is easy for farmers to use to manage runoff and erosion by using appropriate agricultural practices.

  6. Using the snowmelt runoff model to evaluate climate change effects and to compare basin runoff between New Mexico and Idaho.

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Snowmelt Runoff Model(SRM) has been developed and tested in small to large basins worldwide. SRM has been found to be very useful for understanding snowmelt processes as well as for simulating or forecasting snowmelt-derived water supplies. SRM is being used in New Mexico in a NSF-funded EPSCo...

  7. Operational Testing of Satellite based Hydrological Model (SHM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaur, Srishti; Paul, Pranesh Kumar; Singh, Rajendra; Mishra, Ashok; Gupta, Praveen Kumar; Singh, Raghavendra P.

    2017-04-01

    Incorporation of the concept of transposability in model testing is one of the prominent ways to check the credibility of a hydrological model. Successful testing ensures ability of hydrological models to deal with changing conditions, along with its extrapolation capacity. For a newly developed model, a number of contradictions arises regarding its applicability, therefore testing of credibility of model is essential to proficiently assess its strength and limitations. This concept emphasizes to perform 'Hierarchical Operational Testing' of Satellite based Hydrological Model (SHM), a newly developed surface water-groundwater coupled model, under PRACRITI-2 program initiated by Space Application Centre (SAC), Ahmedabad. SHM aims at sustainable water resources management using remote sensing data from Indian satellites. It consists of grid cells of 5km x 5km resolution and comprises of five modules namely: Surface Water (SW), Forest (F), Snow (S), Groundwater (GW) and Routing (ROU). SW module (functions in the grid cells with land cover other than forest and snow) deals with estimation of surface runoff, soil moisture and evapotranspiration by using NRCS-CN method, water balance and Hragreaves method, respectively. The hydrology of F module is dependent entirely on sub-surface processes and water balance is calculated based on it. GW module generates baseflow (depending on water table variation with the level of water in streams) using Boussinesq equation. ROU module is grounded on a cell-to-cell routing technique based on the principle of Time Variant Spatially Distributed Direct Runoff Hydrograph (SDDH) to route the generated runoff and baseflow by different modules up to the outlet. For this study Subarnarekha river basin, flood prone zone of eastern India, has been chosen for hierarchical operational testing scheme which includes tests under stationary as well as transitory conditions. For this the basin has been divided into three sub-basins using three flow

  8. Impact of vegetation dynamics on hydrological processes in a semi-arid basin by using a land surface-hydrology coupled model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiao, Yang; Lei, Huimin; Yang, Dawen; Huang, Maoyi; Liu, Dengfeng; Yuan, Xing

    2017-08-01

    Land surface models (LSMs) are widely used to understand the interactions between hydrological processes and vegetation dynamics, which is important for the attribution and prediction of regional hydrological variations. However, most LSMs have large uncertainties in their representations of eco-hydrological processes due to deficiencies in hydrological parameterizations. In this study, the Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4) LSM was modified with an advanced runoff generation and flow routing scheme, resulting in a new land surface-hydrology coupled model, CLM-GBHM. Both models were implemented in the Wudinghe River Basin (WRB), which is a semi-arid basin located in the middle reaches of the Yellow River, China. Compared with CLM, CLM-GBHM increased the Nash Sutcliffe efficiency for daily river discharge simulation (1965-1969) from -0.03 to 0.23 and reduced the relative bias in water table depth simulations (2010-2012) from 32.4% to 13.4%. The CLM-GBHM simulations with static, remotely sensed and model-predicted vegetation conditions showed that the vegetation in the WRB began to recover in the 2000s due to the Grain for Green Program but had not reached the same level of vegetation cover as regions in natural eco-hydrological equilibrium. Compared with a simulation using remotely sensed vegetation cover, the simulation with a dynamic vegetation model that considers only climate-induced change showed a 10.3% increase in evapotranspiration, a 47.8% decrease in runoff, and a 62.7% and 71.3% deceleration in changing trend of the outlet river discharge before and after the year 2000, respectively. This result suggests that both natural and anthropogenic factors should be incorporated in dynamic vegetation models to better simulate the eco-hydrological cycle.

  9. Data Assimilation in Integrated and Distributed Hydrological Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhang, Donghua

    Integrated hydrological models are frequently used in water-related environmental resource management. With our better understanding of the hydrological processes and the improved computational power, hydrological models are becoming increasingly more complex as they integrate multiple hydrological...... processes and provide simulations in refined temporal and spatial resolutions. Recent developments in measurement and sensor technologies have significantly improved the coverage, quality, frequency and diversity of hydrological observations. Data assimilation provides a great potential in relation...

  10. Stormwater Runoff and Water Quality Modeling in Urban Maryland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, J.; Forman, B. A.; Natarajan, P.; Davis, A.

    2015-12-01

    Urbanization significantly affects storm water runoff through the creation of new impervious surfaces such as highways, parking lots, and rooftops. Such changes can adversely impact the downstream receiving water bodies in terms of physical, chemical, and biological conditions. In order to mitigate the effects of urbanization on downstream water bodies, stormwater control measures (SCMs) have been widely used (e.g., infiltration basins, bioswales). A suite of observations from an infiltration basin installed adjacent to a highway in urban Maryland was used to evaluate stormwater runoff attenuation and pollutant removal rates at the well-instrumented SCM study site. In this study, the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) was used to simulate the performance of the SCM. An automatic, split-sample calibration framework was developed to improve SWMM performance efficiency. The results indicate SWMM can accurately reproduce the hydraulic response of the SCM (in terms of reproducing measured inflow and outflow) during synoptic scale storm events lasting more than one day, but is less accurate during storm events lasting only a few hours. Similar results were found for a suite of modeled (and observed) water quality constituents, including suspended sediment, metals, N, P, and chloride.

  11. Using Runoff Data to Calibrate the Community Land Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ray, J.; Hou, Z.; Huang, M.; Swiler, L.

    2014-12-01

    We present a statistical method for calibrating the Community Land Model (CLM) using streamflow observations collected between 1999 and 2008 at the outlet of two river basins from the Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX), Oostanaula River at Resaca GA, and Walnut River at Winfield KS.. The observed streamflow shows variability over a large range of time-scales, none of which significantly dominates the others; consequently, the time-series seems noisy and is difficult to be directly used in model parameter estimation efforts without significant filtering. We perform a multi-resolution wavelet decomposition of the observed streamflow, and use the wavelet power coefficients (WPC) as the tuning data. We construct a mapping (a surrogate model) between WPC and three hydrological parameters of the CLM using a training set of 256 CLM runs. The dependence of WPC on the parameters is complex and cannot be captured using a surrogate unless the parameter combinations yield physically plausible model predictions, i.e., those that are skillful when compared to observations. Retaining only the top quartile of the runs ensures skillfulness, as measured by the RMS error between observations and CLM predictions. This "screening" of the training data yields a region (the "valid" region) in the parameter space where accurate surrogate models can be created. We construct a classifier for the "valid" region, and, in conjunction with the surrogate models for WPC, pose a Bayesian inverse problem for the three hydrological parameters. The inverse problem is solved using an adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method to construct a three-dimensional posterior distribution for the hydrological parameters. Posterior predictive tests using the surrogate model reveal that the posterior distribution is more predictive than the nominal values of the parameters, which are used as default values in the current version of CLM. The effectiveness of the inversion is then validated by

  12. Eco-Hydrological Modelling of Stream Valleys

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Johansen, Ole

    Predicting the effects of hydrological alterations on terrestrial stream valley ecosystems requires multidisciplinary approaches involving both engineers and ecologists. Groundwater discharge in stream valleys and other lowland areas support a number of species rich ecosystems, and their protection...... is prioritised worldwide. Protection requires improved knowledge on the functioning of these ecosystems and especially the linkages between vegetation, groundwater discharge and water level conditions are crucial for management applications. Groundwater abstraction affects catchment hydrology and thereby also...... groundwater discharge. Numerical hydrological modelling has been widely used for evaluation of sustainable groundwater resources and effects of abstraction, however, the importance of local scale heterogeneity becomes increasingly important in the assessment of local damage to these groundwater dependent...

  13. HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES MODELLING USING ADVANCED HYDROINFORMATIC TOOLS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    BEILICCI ERIKA

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The water has an essential role in the functioning of ecosystems by integrating the complex physical, chemical, and biological processes that sustain life. Water is a key factor in determining the productivity of ecosystems, biodiversity and species composition. Water is also essential for humanity: water supply systems for population, agriculture, fisheries, industries, and hydroelectric power depend on water supplies. The modelling of hydrological processes is an important activity for water resources management, especially now, when the climate change is one of the major challenges of our century, with strong influence on hydrological processes dynamics. Climate change and needs for more knowledge in water resources require the use of advanced hydroinformatic tools in hydrological processes modelling. The rationale and purpose of advanced hydroinformatic tools is to develop a new relationship between the stakeholders and the users and suppliers of the systems: to offer the basis (systems which supply useable results, the validity of which cannot be put in reasonable doubt by any of the stakeholders involved. For a successful modelling of hydrological processes also need specialists well trained and able to use advanced hydro-informatics tools. Results of modelling can be a useful tool for decision makers to taking efficient measures in social, economical and ecological domain regarding water resources, for an integrated water resources management.

  14. High-quality observation of surface imperviousness for urban runoff modelling using UAV imagery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tokarczyk, P.; Leitao, J. P.; Rieckermann, J.; Schindler, K.; Blumensaat, F.

    2015-10-01

    Modelling rainfall-runoff in urban areas is increasingly applied to support flood risk assessment, particularly against the background of a changing climate and an increasing urbanization. These models typically rely on high-quality data for rainfall and surface characteristics of the catchment area as model input. While recent research in urban drainage has been focusing on providing spatially detailed rainfall data, the technological advances in remote sensing that ease the acquisition of detailed land-use information are less prominently discussed within the community. The relevance of such methods increases as in many parts of the globe, accurate land-use information is generally lacking, because detailed image data are often unavailable. Modern unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) allow one to acquire high-resolution images on a local level at comparably lower cost, performing on-demand repetitive measurements and obtaining a degree of detail tailored for the purpose of the study. In this study, we investigate for the first time the possibility of deriving high-resolution imperviousness maps for urban areas from UAV imagery and of using this information as input for urban drainage models. To do so, an automatic processing pipeline with a modern classification method is proposed and evaluated in a state-of-the-art urban drainage modelling exercise. In a real-life case study (Lucerne, Switzerland), we compare imperviousness maps generated using a fixed-wing consumer micro-UAV and standard large-format aerial images acquired by the Swiss national mapping agency (swisstopo). After assessing their overall accuracy, we perform an end-to-end comparison, in which they are used as an input for an urban drainage model. Then, we evaluate the influence which different image data sources and their processing methods have on hydrological and hydraulic model performance. We analyse the surface runoff of the 307 individual subcatchments regarding relevant attributes, such as peak

  15. Data assimilation in integrated hydrological modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Jørn

    Integrated hydrological models are useful tools for water resource management and research, and advances in computational power and the advent of new observation types has resulted in the models generally becoming more complex and distributed. However, the models are often characterized by a high...... using both synthetic data and real observations. Groundwater head and stream discharge observations are assimilated in an integrated hydrological model, with the aim of updating the groundwater head, stream discharge and water level, and model parameters. When synthetically generated observations......, two bias-aware data assimilation algorithms are tested and were shown to successfully estimate the bias of most observations. The data assimilation framework was applied to real observations and an improvement in stream discharge was obtained compared to a deterministic model without data assimilation...

  16. Modeling the hydrological cycle on Mars

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ghada Machtoub

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available The study provides a detailed analysis of the hydrological cycle on Mars simulated with a newly developed microphysical model, incorporated in a spectral Mars General Circulation Model. The modeled hydrological cycle is compared well with simulations of other global climate models. The simulated seasonal migration ofwater vapor, circulation instability, and the high degree of temporal variability of localized water vapor outbursts are shown closely consistent with recent observations. The microphysical parameterization provides a significant improvement in the modeling of ice clouds evolved over the tropics and major ancient volcanoes on Mars. The most significant difference between the simulations presented here and other GCM results is the level at which the water ice clouds are found. The model findings also support interpretation of observed thermal anomalies in the Martian tropics during northern spring and summer seasons.

  17. Inferring the flood frequency distribution for an ungauged basin using a spatially distributed rainfall-runoff model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Moretti

    2008-08-01

    Full Text Available The estimation of the peak river flow for ungauged river sections is a topical issue in applied hydrology. Spatially distributed rainfall-runoff models can be a useful tool to this end, since they are potentially able to simulate the river flow at any location of the watershed drainage network. However, it is not fully clear to what extent these models can provide reliable simulations over a wide range of spatial scales. This issue is investigated here by applying a spatially distributed, continuous simulation rainfall-runoff model to infer the flood frequency distribution of the Riarbero River. This is an ungauged mountain creek located in northern Italy, whose drainage area is 17 km2. The hydrological model is first calibrated by using a 1-year record of hourly meteorological data and river flows observed at the outlet of the 1294 km2 wide Secchia River basin, of which the Riarbero is a tributary. The model is then validated by performing a 100-year long simulation of synthetic river flow data, which allowed us to compare the simulated and observed flood frequency distributions at the Secchia River outlet and the internal cross river section of Cavola Bridge, where the basin area is 337 km2. Finally, another simulation of hourly river flows was performed by referring to the outlet of the Riarbero River, therefore allowing us to estimate the related flood frequency distribution. The results were validated by using estimates of peak river flow obtained by applying hydrological similarity principles and a regional method. The results show that the flood flow estimated through the application of the distributed model is consistent with the estimate provided by the regional procedure as well as the behaviors of the river banks. Conversely, the method based on hydrological similarity delivers an estimate that seems to be not as reliable. The analysis highlights interesting perspectives for the application of

  18. Erosivity, surface runoff, and soil erosion estimation using GIS-coupled runoff-erosion model in the Mamuaba catchment, Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marques da Silva, Richarde; Guimarães Santos, Celso Augusto; Carneiro de Lima Silva, Valeriano; Pereira e Silva, Leonardo

    2013-11-01

    This study evaluates erosivity, surface runoff generation, and soil erosion rates for Mamuaba catchment, sub-catchment of Gramame River basin (Brazil) by using the ArcView Soil and Water Assessment Tool (AvSWAT) model. Calibration and validation of the model was performed on monthly basis, and it could simulate surface runoff and soil erosion to a good level of accuracy. Daily rainfall data between 1969 and 1989 from six rain gauges were used, and the monthly rainfall erosivity of each station was computed for all the studied years. In order to evaluate the calibration and validation of the model, monthly runoff data between January 1978 and April 1982 from one runoff gauge were used as well. The estimated soil loss rates were also realistic when compared to what can be observed in the field and to results from previous studies around of catchment. The long-term average soil loss was estimated at 9.4 t ha(-1) year(-1); most of the area of the catchment (60%) was predicted to suffer from a low- to moderate-erosion risk (soil erosion was estimated to exceed > 12 t ha(-1) year(-1). Expectedly, estimated soil loss was significantly correlated with measured rainfall and simulated surface runoff. Based on the estimated soil loss rates, the catchment was divided into four priority categories (low, moderate, high and very high) for conservation intervention. The study demonstrates that the AvSWAT model provides a useful tool for soil erosion assessment from catchments and facilitates the planning for a sustainable land management in northeastern Brazil.

  19. Optimal combinations of specialized conceptual hydrological models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kayastha, Nagendra; Lal Shrestha, Durga; Solomatine, Dimitri

    2010-05-01

    In hydrological modelling it is a usual practice to use a single lumped conceptual model for hydrological simulations at all regimes. However often the simplicity of the modelling paradigm leads to errors in represent all the complexity of the physical processes in the catchment. A solution could be to model various hydrological processes separately by differently parameterized models, and to combine them. Different hydrological models have varying performance in reproducing catchment response. Generally it cannot be represented precisely in different segments of the hydrograph: some models performed well in simulating the peak flows, while others do well in capturing the low flows. Better performance can be achieved if a model being applied to the catchment using different model parameters that are calibrated using criteria favoring high or low flows. In this work we use a modular approach to simulate hydrology of a catchment, wherein multiple models are applied to replicate the catchment responses and each "specialist" model is calibrated according to a specific objective function which is chosen in a way that forces the model to capture certain aspects of the hydrograph, and outputs of models are combined using so-called "fuzzy committee". Such multi-model approach has been already previously implemented in the development of data driven and conceptual models (Fenicia et al., 2007), but its perfomance was considered only during the calibration period. In this study we tested an application to conceptual models in both calibration and verification period. In addition, we tested the sensitivity of the result to the use of different weightings used in the objective functions formulations, and memberbship functions used in the committee. The study was carried out for Bagamati catchment in Nepal and Brue catchment in United Kingdoms with the MATLAB-based implementation of HBV model. Multi-objective evolutionary optimization genetic algorithm (Deb, 2001) was used to

  20. Hydrological modelling of drained blanket peatland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ballard, C. E.; McIntyre, N.; Wheater, H. S.; Holden, J.; Wallage, Z. E.

    2011-09-01

    SummaryOpen ditch drainage is a commonly implemented land management practice in upland blanket peatlands, particularly in the UK, where policy decisions between the 1940s and 1970s led to widespread drainage of the uplands. The change in the hydrological regime associated with the drainage of blanket peat is poorly understood, yet has perceived importance for flooding, low flows and water quality. We propose a new simplified physics-based model that allows the associated hydrological processes and flow responses to be explored. The model couples four one-dimensional models to represent a three-dimensional hillslope, allowing for the exploration of flow and water table response throughout the model domain for a range of drainage configurations and peat properties. The model is tested against a data set collected from Oughtershaw Beck, UK, with results showing good model performance for wet periods although less conformity with borehole observations during rewetting periods. A wider exploration of model behaviour indicates that the model is consistent with the hydrological response reported in the literature for a number of drained blanket peat sites, and therefore has potential to provide guidance to decision makers concerning the effects of management practices. Through a global sensitivity analysis, we conclude that further field investigations to assist in the surface and drain roughness parameterisation would help reduce the uncertainty in the model predictions.

  1. Coupling socio-economic factors and eco-hydrological processes using a cascade-modeling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Odongo, V. O.; Mulatu, D. W.; Muthoni, F. K.; van Oel, P. R.; Meins, F. M.; van der Tol, C.; Skidmore, A. K.; Groen, T. A.; Becht, R.; Onyando, J. O.; van der Veen, A.

    2014-10-01

    Most hydrological studies do not account for the socio-economic influences on eco-hydrological processes. However, socio-economic developments often change the water balance substantially and are highly relevant in understanding changes in hydrological responses. In this study a multi-disciplinary approach was used to study the cascading impacts of socio-economic drivers of land use and land cover (LULC) changes on the eco-hydrological regime of the Lake Naivasha Basin. The basin has recently experienced substantial LULC changes exacerbated by socio-economic drivers. The simplified cascade models provided insights for an improved understanding of the socio-ecohydrological system. Results show that the upstream population has transformed LULC such that runoff during the period 1986-2010 was 32% higher than during the period 1961-1985. Cut-flower export volumes and downstream population growth explain 71% of the water abstracted from Lake Naivasha. The influence of upstream population on LULC and upstream hydrological processes explained 59% and 30% of the variance in lake storage volumes and sediment yield respectively. The downstream LULC changes had significant impact on large wild herbivore mammal species on the fringe zone of the lake. This study shows that, in cases where observed socio-economic developments are substantial, the use of a cascade-modeling approach, that couple socio-economic factors to eco-hydrological processes, can greatly improve our understanding of the eco-hydrological processes of a catchment.

  2. Event soil loss, runoff and the Universal Soil Loss Equation family of models: A review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinnell, P. I. A.

    2010-05-01

    SummaryThe Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) is the most widely used and misused prediction equation in the world. Although it was designed to predict long-term average annual soil loss, it has the capacity to predict event soil losses reasonably well at some geographic locations and not well at others. Its lack of capacity to predict event erosion is highly influenced by the fact the event rainfall-runoff factor used in the USLE and its revisions (RUSLE, RUSLE2) does not consider runoff explicitly. While including direct consideration of runoff in the event rainfall-runoff factor improves the capacity to predict event erosion when runoff is measured, that capacity is reduced by inaccurate runoff prediction methods. Even so, the predictions may be better than when the traditional event rainfall-runoff factor is used if the rainfall-runoff model used to predict runoff works reasonably well. Direct consideration of runoff in the rainfall-runoff factor may improve the ability of the model to account for seasonal effects. It also enhances the ability of the model to account for the spatial variations in soil loss on hillslopes which result from spatial variations in soil and vegetation. However, the USLE model will not provide a capacity to account for deposition taking place on concave hillslopes unless it is coupled with an appropriate sediment transport model, as in done in RUSLE2. Changing the basis of the event rainfall-runoff factor has consequences on a number of the other factors used in the model, in particular new values of the soil erodibility factor need to be determined. Using runoff values from cropped areas is necessary to account for differences in infiltration capacities between vegetated and tilled bare fallow areas, but requires re-evaluation of the crop factors.

  3. Tracing Temporal Changes of Model Parameters in Rainfall-Runoff Modeling via a Real-Time Data Assimilation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shanshan Meng

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Watershed characteristics such as patterns of land use and land cover (LULC, soil structure and river systems, have substantially changed due to natural and anthropogenic factors. To adapt hydrological models to the changing characteristics of watersheds, one of the feasible strategies is to explicitly estimate the changed parameters. However, few approaches have been dedicated to these non-stationary conditions. In this study, we employ an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF technique with a constrained parameter evolution scheme to trace the parameter changes. This technique is coupled to a rainfall-runoff model, i.e., the Xinanjiang (XAJ model. In addition to a stationary condition, we designed three typical non-stationary conditions, including sudden, gradual and rotational changes with respect to two behavioral parameters of the XAJ. Synthetic experiments demonstrated that the EnKF-based method can trace the three types of parameter changes in real time. This method shows robust performance even for the scenarios of high-level uncertainties within rainfall input, modeling and observations, and it holds an implication for detecting changes in watershed characteristics. Coupling this method with a rainfall-runoff model is useful to adapt the model to non-stationary conditions, thereby improving flood simulations and predictions.

  4. Water regime of Playa Lakes from southern Spain: conditioning factors and hydrological modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moral, Francisco; Rodriguez-Rodriguez, Miguel; Beltrán, Manuel; Benavente, José; Cifuentes, Victor Juan

    2013-07-01

    Andalusia's lowland countryside has a network of small geographically isolated playa lakes scattered across an area of 9000 km2 whose watersheds are mostly occupied by clayey rocks. The hydrological model proposed by the authors seeks to find equilibrium among usefulness, simplicity, and applicability to isolated playas in a semiarid context elsewhere. Based in such model, the authors have used monthly climatic data, water stage measurements, and the basin morphometry of a particular case (Los Jarales playa lake) to calibrate the soil water budget in the catchment and the water inputs from the watershed (runoff plus groundwater flow) at different scales, from monthly to daily. After the hydrologic model was calibrated, the authors implemented simulations with the goal of reproducing the past hydrological dynamics and forecasting water regime changes that would be caused by a modification of the wetland morphometry.

  5. Hydrological Modelling Using a Rainfall Simulator over an Experimental Hillslope Plot

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arpit Chouksey

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Hydrological processes are complex to compute in hilly areas when compared to plain areas. The governing processes behind runoff generation on hillslopes are subsurface storm flow, saturation excess flow, overland flow, return flow and pipe storage. The simulations of the above processes in the soil matrix require detailed hillslope hydrological modelling. In the present study, a hillslope experimental plot has been designed to study the runoff generation processes on the plot scale. The setup is designed keeping in view the natural hillslope conditions prevailing in the Northwestern Himalayas, India where high intensity rainfall events occur frequently. A rainfall simulator was installed over the experimental hillslope plot to generate rainfall with an intensity of 100 mm/h, which represents the dominating rainfall intensity range in the region. Soil moisture sensors were also installed at variable depths from 100 to 1000 mm at different locations of the plot to observe the soil moisture regime. From the experimental observations it was found that once the soil is saturated, it remains at field capacity for the next 24–36 h. Such antecedent moisture conditions are most favorable for the generation of rapid stormflow from hillslopes. A dye infiltration test was performed on the undisturbed soil column to observe the macropore fraction variability over the vegetated hillslopes. The estimated macropore fractions are used as essential input for the hillslope hydrological model. The main objective of the present study was to develop and test a method for estimating runoff responses from natural rainfall over hillslopes of the Northwestern Himalayas using a portable rainfall simulator. Using the experimental data and the developed conceptual model, the overland flow and the subsurface flow through a macropore-dominated area have been estimated/analyzed. The surface and subsurface runoff estimated using the developed hillslope hydrological model

  6. Runoff Modelling in Urban Storm Drainage by Neural Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Michael R.; Brorsen, Michael; Schaarup-Jensen, Kjeld

    1995-01-01

    A neural network is used to simulate folw and water levels in a sewer system. The calibration of th neural network is based on a few measured events and the network is validated against measureed events as well as flow simulated with the MOUSE model (Lindberg and Joergensen, 1986). The neural...... network is used to compute flow or water level at selected points in the sewer system, and to forecast the flow from a small residential area. The main advantages of the neural network are the build-in self calibration procedure and high speed performance, but the neural network cannot be used to extract...... knowledge of the runoff process. The neural network was found to simulate 150 times faster than e.g. the MOUSE model....

  7. Does better rainfall interpolation improve hydrological model performance?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bàrdossy, Andràs; Kilsby, Chris; Lewis, Elisabeth

    2017-04-01

    High spatial variability of precipitation is one of the main sources of uncertainty in rainfall/runoff modelling. Spatially distributed models require detailed space time information on precipitation as input. In the past decades a lot of effort was spent on improving precipitation interpolation using point observations. Different geostatistical methods like Ordinary Kriging, External Drift Kriging or Copula based interpolation can be used to find the best estimators for unsampled locations. The purpose of this work is to investigate to what extents more sophisticated precipitation estimation methods can improve model performance. For this purpose the Wye catchment in Wales was selected. The physically-based spatially-distributed hydrological model SHETRAN is used to describe the hydrological processes in the catchment. 31 raingauges with 1 hourly temporal resolution are available for a time period of 6 years. In order to avoid the effect of model uncertainty model parameters were not altered in this study. Instead 100 random subsets consisting of 14 stations each were selected. For each of the configurations precipitation was interpolated for each time step using nearest neighbor (NN), inverse distance (ID) and Ordinary Kriging (OK). The variogram was obtained using the temporal correlation of the time series measured at different locations. The interpolated data were used as input for the spatially distributed model. Performance was evaluated for daily mean discharges using the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient, temporal correlations, flow volumes and flow duration curves. The results show that the simplest NN and the sophisticated OK performances are practically equally good, while ID performed worse. NN was often better for high flows. The reason for this is that NN does not reduce the variance, while OK and ID yield smooth precipitation fields. The study points out the importance of precipitation variability and suggests the use of conditional spatial simulation as

  8. Simulating cold-region hydrology in an intensively drained agricultural watershed in Manitoba, Canada, using the Cold Regions Hydrological Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cordeiro, Marcos R. C.; Wilson, Henry F.; Vanrobaeys, Jason; Pomeroy, John W.; Fang, Xing; The Red-Assiniboine Project Biophysical Modelling Team

    2017-07-01

    Etrophication and flooding are perennial problems in agricultural watersheds of the northern Great Plains. A high proportion of annual runoff and nutrient transport occurs with snowmelt in this region. Extensive surface drainage modification, frozen soils, and frequent backwater or ice-damming impacts on flow measurement represent unique challenges to accurately modelling watershed-scale hydrological processes. A physically based, non-calibrated model created using the Cold Regions Hydrological Modelling platform (CRHM) was parameterized to simulate hydrological processes within a low slope, clay soil, and intensively surface drained agricultural watershed. These characteristics are common to most tributaries of the Red River of the north. Analysis of the observed water level records for the study watershed (La Salle River) indicates that ice cover and backwater issues at time of peak flow may impact the accuracy of both modelled and measured streamflows, highlighting the value of evaluating a non-calibrated model in this environment. Simulations best matched the streamflow record in years when peak and annual discharges were equal to or above the medians of 6.7 m3 s-1 and 1.25 × 107 m3, respectively, with an average Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) of 0.76. Simulation of low-flow years (below the medians) was more challenging (average NSE attention in further model development efforts. Despite the complexities of the study watershed, simulations of flow for average to high-flow years and other components of the water balance were robust (snow water equivalency (SWE) and soil moisture). A sensitivity analysis of the flow routing model suggests a need for improved understanding of watershed functions under both dry and flooded conditions due to dynamic routing conditions, but overall CRHM is appropriate for simulation of hydrological processes in agricultural watersheds of the Red River. Falsifications of snow sublimation, snow transport, and infiltration to frozen

  9. On science versus engineering in hydrological modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melsen, Lieke

    2017-04-01

    It is always stressed that hydrological modelling is very important, to prevent floods, to mitigate droughts, to ensure food production or nature conservation. All very true, but I believe that focussing so much on the application of our knowledge (which I call `the engineering approach'), does not stimulate thorough system understanding (which I call `the scientific approach'). In many studies, science and engineering approaches are mixed, which results in large uncertainty e.g. due to a lack of system understanding. To what extent engineering and science approached are mixed depends on the Philosophy of Science of the researcher; verificationism seems to be closer related to engineering, than falsificationism or Bayesianism. In order to grow our scientific knowledge, which means increasing our understanding of the system, we need to be more critical towards the models that we use, but also recognize all the processes that influence the hydrological cycle. In an era called 'The Anthropocene' the influence of humans on the water system can no longer be neglected, and if we choose a scientific approach we have to account for human-induced processes. Summarizing, I believe that we have to account for human impact on the hydrological system, but we have to resist the temptation to directly quantify the hydrological impact on the human system.

  10. Laboratory Simulation of Urban Runoff and Estimation of Runoff Hydrographs with Experimental Curve Numbers Implemented in USEPA SWMM

    Science.gov (United States)

    The prognostic capabilities of a lumped hydrologic modeling approach may be complicated by routing and connectivity among infiltrative and impervious surfaces. We used artificial rainfall to generate runoff from impervious and bare soil boxes arranged in series to simulate differ...

  11. Evaluating and improving hydrologic processes in the community land model for integrated earth system modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hannah, D. M.; Khamis, K.; Blaen, P. J.; Hainie, S.; Mellor, C.; Brown, L. E.; Milner, A. M.

    2011-12-01

    High climatic sensitivity and low anthropogenic influence make glacierized river basins important environments for examining hydrological and ecological response to global change. This paper synthesises findings from previous and ongoing research in glacierized Alpine and Arctic river basins (located in the French Pyrenees, New Zealand, Swedish Lapland and Svalbard), which adopts an interdisciplinary approach to investigate the climate-cryosphere-hydrology-ecology cascade. Data are used to advance hypotheses concerning the consequences of climate change/ variability on glacier river system hydrology and ecology. Aquatic ecosystems in high latitude and altitude environments are influenced strongly by cryospheric and hydrological processes due to links between atmospheric forcing, snowpack/ glacier mass-balance, river runoff, physico-chemistry and biota. In the current phase of global warming, many glaciers are retreating. Using downscaled regional climate projections as inputs to a distributed hydrological model for a study basin in the French Pyrenees (i.e. an environment at the contemporary limit of valley glaciation), we show how shrinking snow and ice-masses may alter space-time dynamics in basin runoff. Notably, the timing of peak snow- and ice-melt may shift; and the proportion of stream flow sourced from rainfall-runoff (cf. meltwater) may increase. Across our range of Alpine and Arctic study basins, we quantify observed links between relative water source contributions (% meltwater : % groundwater), physico-chemical habitat (e.g. water temperature, electrical conductivity, suspended sediment and channel stability) and benthic communities. At the site scale, results point towards increased community diversity (taxonomic and functional) as meltwater contributions decline and physico-chemical habitat becomes less harsh. However, basin-scale biodiversity may be reduced due to less spatio-temporal heterogeneity in water source contributions and habitats, and the

  12. Hydrologic modelling for climate change impacts analysis of shifts in future hydrologic regimes: implications for stream temperature and salmon habitat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennett, K. E.; Werner, A. T.; Schnorbus, M.; Salathé, E. P.; Nelitz, M.

    2009-05-01

    The challenges faced by climate change impact analysts must be solved through interdisciplinary collaboration between research scientists, institutions and stakeholders. In particular, hydrologic modelers, climate scientists, biologists, ecologists, engineers and water resource managers must interact to pool expertise and provide tools to address the complex issues associated with future climate change. The current study examines the results of an application of the VIC macro-scale hydrologic model to predict future changes to soil moisture, snowpack, evapo-transpiration, and streamflow in the Fraser Basin of British Columbia - and then apply these results to stream temperature and fish habitat models to predict future impacts on freshwater ecosystems. The results of this work will be presented to fisheries managers to provide them with the information needed to develop adaptation strategies that will help mitigate the adverse effects of climate change. This presentation will focus on the hydrologic modelling results of a number of downscaled scenarios to examine the projected differences for the 2050s (2041 - 2070) as compared to the historical baseline (1961- 1990). By the 2050s, although the magnitude of change varies by GCM and emissions scenarios, overall precipitation and temperature is projected to increase, particularly in the winter, which leads to increased winter time runoff for many basins. However, this is combined with declines in snow water equivalent (SWE) for many sites, which coupled with lower early season soil moisture, leads to declines in summer runoff and baseflow. SWE increases in some basins under the cgcm3 A1B and echam5 A1B scenarios at high elevations. A similar result was found in this region with the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) 4, driven with run 4 of the CGCM3 under the A2 emissions scenario. Lack of water availability during the summer time periods appears to limit evaporation, causing declines in summer ET across most

  13. Combined effects of climate models, hydrological model structures and land use scenarios on hydrological impacts of climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karlsson, Ida B.; Sonnenborg, Torben O.; Refsgaard, Jens Christian

    2016-01-01

    to cause little change in mean hydrological responses and little variation between hydrological models. Differences in hydrological model responses to land use were, however, significant for extremes due to dissimilarities in hydrological model structure and process equations. The climate model choice......Impact studies of the hydrological response of future climate change are important for the water authorities when risk assessment, management and adaptation to a changing climate are carried out. The objective of this study was to model the combined effect of land use and climate changes...... on hydrology for a 486 km2 catchment in Denmark and to evaluate the sensitivity of the results to the choice of hydrological model. Three hydrological models, NAM, SWAT and MIKE SHE, were constructed and calibrated using similar methods. Each model was forced with results from four climate models and four land...

  14. ANN Model-Based Simulation of the Runoff Variation in Response to Climate Change on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chang Juan

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Precisely quantitative assessments of stream flow response to climatic change and permafrost thawing are highly challenging and urgent in cold regions. However, due to the notably harsh environmental conditions, there is little field monitoring data of runoff in permafrost regions, which has limited the development of physically based models in these regions. To identify the impacts of climate change in the runoff process in the Three-River Headwater Region (TRHR on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, two artificial neural network (ANN models, one with three input variables (previous runoff, air temperature, and precipitation and another with two input variables (air temperature and precipitation only, were developed to simulate and predict the runoff variation in the TRHR. The results show that the three-input variable ANN model has a superior real-time prediction capability and performs well in the simulation and forecasting of the runoff variation in the TRHR. Under the different scenarios conditions, the forecasting results of ANN model indicated that climate change has a great effect on the runoff processes in the TRHR. The results of this study are of practical significance for water resources management and the evaluation of the impacts of climatic change on the hydrological regime in long-term considerations.

  15. Hydrologic conditions and quality of rainfall and storm runoff for two agricultural areas of the Oso Creek Watershed, Nueces County, Texas, 2005-07

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ockerman, Darwin J.

    2008-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Texas State Soil and Water Conservation Board, Coastal Bend Bays and Estuaries Program, and Texas AgriLife Research and Extension Center at Corpus Christi, studied hydrologic conditions and quality of rainfall and storm runoff of two (primarily) agricultural areas (subwatersheds) of the Oso Creek watershed in Nueces County, Texas. One area, the upper West Oso Creek subwatershed, is 5,145 acres. The other area, a subwatershed drained by an unnamed Oso Creek tributary (hereinafter, Oso Creek tributary), is 5,287 acres. Rainfall and runoff (streamflow) were continuously monitored at the outlets of the two subwatersheds during October 2005-September 2007. Fourteen rainfall samples were collected and analyzed for nutrients and major inorganic ions. Nineteen composite runoff samples (10 West Oso Creek, nine Oso Creek tributary) were collected and analyzed for nutrients, major inorganic ions, and pesticides. Twenty-two discrete suspended-sediment samples (10 West Oso Creek, 12 Oso Creek tributary) and 13 bacteria samples (eight West Oso Creek, five Oso Creek tributary) were collected and analyzed. These data were used to estimate, for selected constituents, rainfall deposition to and runoff loads and yields from the study subwatersheds. Quantities of fertilizers and pesticides applied in the subwatersheds were compared with quantities of nutrients and pesticides in rainfall and runoff. For the study period, total rainfall was greater than average. Most of the runoff at both subwatershed outlet sites occurred in response to a few specific storm periods. The West Oso Creek subwatershed produced more runoff during the study period than the Oso Creek tributary subwatershed, 10.83 inches compared with 7.28 inches. Runoff response was quicker and peak flows were higher in the West Oso Creek subwatershed than in the Oso Creek tributary subwatershed. Total nitrogen runoff yield for the 2-year study period averaged 2.61 pounds

  16. Hydrologic conditions and water quality of rainfall and storm runoff for two agricultural areas of the Oso Creek watershed, Nueces County, Texas, 2005-08

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ockerman, Darwin J.; Fernandez, Carlos J.

    2010-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Texas State Soil and Water Conservation Board, Coastal Bend Bays and Estuaries Program, and Texas AgriLife Research and Extension Center at Corpus Christi, studied hydrologic conditions and water quality of rainfall and storm runoff of two primarily agricultural subwatersheds of the Oso Creek watershed in Nueces County, Texas. One area, the upper West Oso Creek subwatershed, is about 5,145 acres. The other area, a subwatershed drained by an unnamed tributary to Oso Creek (hereinafter, Oso Creek tributary), is about 5,287 acres. Rainfall and runoff (streamflow) were continuously monitored at the outlets of the two subwatersheds during the study period October 2005-September 2008. Seventeen rainfall samples were collected and analyzed for nutrients and major inorganic ions. Twenty-four composite runoff water-quality samples (12 at West Oso Creek, 12 at Oso Creek tributary) were collected and analyzed for nutrients, major inorganic ions, and pesticides. Twenty-six discrete suspended-sediment samples (12 West Oso Creek, 14 Oso Creek tributary) and 17 bacteria samples (10 West Oso Creek, 7 Oso Creek tributary) were collected and analyzed. These data were used to estimate, for selected constituents, rainfall deposition to and runoff loads and yields from the two subwatersheds. Quantities of fertilizers and pesticides applied in the two subwatersheds were compared with quantities of nutrients and pesticides in rainfall and runoff. For the study period, total rainfall was greater than average. Most of the runoff from the two subwatersheds occurred in response to a few specific storm periods. The West Oso Creek subwatershed produced more runoff during the study period than the Oso Creek tributary subwatershed, 13.95 inches compared with 9.45 inches. Runoff response was quicker and peak flows were higher in the West Oso Creek subwatershed than in the Oso Creek tributary subwatershed. Total nitrogen runoff yield for the 3

  17. Impact of vegetation dynamics on hydrological processes in a semi-arid basin by using a land surface-hydrology coupled model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jiao, Yang; Lei, Huimin; Yang, Dawen; Huang, Maoyi; Liu, Dengfeng; Yuan, Xing

    2017-08-01

    Land surface models (LSMs) are widely used to understand the interactions between hydrological processes and vegetation dynamics, which is important for the attribution and prediction of regional hydrological variations. However, most LSMs have large uncertainties in their representations of ecohydrological processes due to deficiencies in hydrological parameterizations. In this study, the Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4) LSM was modified with an advanced runoff generation and flow routing scheme, resulting in a new land surface-hydrology coupled model, CLM-GBHM. Both models were implemented in the Wudinghe River Basin (WRB), which is a semi-arid basin located in the middle reaches of the Yellow River, China. Compared with CLM, CLM-GBHM increased the Nash Sutcliffe efficiency for daily river discharge simulation (1965–1969) from 0.03 to 0.23 and reduced the relative bias in water table depth simulations (2010–2012) from 32.4% to 13.4%. The CLM-GBHM simulations with static, remotely sensed and model-predicted vegetation conditions showed that the vegetation in the WRB began to recover in the 2000s due to the Grain for Green Program but had not reached the same level of vegetation cover as regions in natural eco-hydrological equilibrium. Compared with a simulation using remotely sensed vegetation cover, the simulation with a dynamic vegetation model that considers only climate-induced change showed a 10.3% increase in evapotranspiration, a 47.8% decrease in runoff, and a 62.7% and 71.3% deceleration in changing trend of the outlet river discharge before and after the year 2000, respectively. This result suggests that both natural and anthropogenic factors should be incorporated in dynamic vegetation models to better simulate the eco-hydrological cycle.

  18. Assimilating satellite soil moisture into rainfall-runoff modelling: towards a systematic study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Massari, Christian; Tarpanelli, Angelica; Brocca, Luca; Moramarco, Tommaso

    2015-04-01

    Soil moisture is the main factor for the repartition of the mass and energy fluxes between the land surface and the atmosphere thus playing a fundamental role in the hydrological cycle. Indeed, soil moisture represents the initial condition of rainfall-runoff modelling that determines the flood response of a catchment. Different initial soil moisture conditions can discriminate between catastrophic and minor effects of a given rainfall event. Therefore, improving the estimation of initial soil moisture conditions will reduce uncertainties in early warning flood forecasting models addressing the mitigation of flood hazard. In recent years, satellite soil moisture products have become available with fine spatial-temporal resolution and a good accuracy. Therefore, a number of studies have been published in which the impact of the assimilation of satellite soil moisture data into rainfall-runoff modelling is investigated. Unfortunately, data assimilation involves a series of assumptions and choices that significantly affect the final result. Given a satellite soil moisture observation, a rainfall-runoff model and a data assimilation technique, an improvement or a deterioration of discharge predictions can be obtained depending on the choices made in the data assimilation procedure. Consequently, large discrepancies have been obtained in the studies published so far likely due to the differences in the implementation of the data assimilation technique. On this basis, a comprehensive and robust procedure for the assimilation of satellite soil moisture data into rainfall-runoff modelling is developed here and applied to six subcatchment of the Upper Tiber River Basin for which high-quality hydrometeorological hourly observations are available in the period 1989-2013. The satellite soil moisture product used in this study is obtained from the Advanced SCATterometer (ASCAT) onboard Metop-A satellite and it is available since 2007. The MISDc ("Modello Idrologico Semi

  19. Runoff Simulation in the Upper Reaches of Heihe River Basin Based on the RIEMS–SWAT Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Songbing Zou

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available In the distributed hydrological simulations for complex mountain areas, large amounts of meteorological input parameters with high spatial and temporal resolutions are necessary. However, the extreme scarcity and uneven distribution of the traditional meteorological observation stations in cold and arid regions of Northwest China makes it very difficult in meeting the requirements of hydrological simulations. Alternatively, regional climate models (RCMs, which can provide a variety of distributed meteorological data with high temporal and spatial resolution, have become an effective solution to improve hydrological simulation accuracy and to further study water resource responses to human activities and global climate change. In this study, abundant and evenly distributed virtual weather stations in the upper reaches of the Heihe River Basin (HRB of Northwest China were built for the optimization of the input data, and thus a regional integrated environmental model system (RIEMS based on RCM and a distributed hydrological model of soil and water assessment tool (SWAT were integrated as a coupled climate–hydrological RIEMS-SWAT model, which was applied to simulate monthly runoff from 1995 to 2010 in the region. Results show that the simulated and observed values are close; Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency is higher than 0.65; determination coefficient (R2 values are higher than 0.70; percent bias is controlled within ±20%; and root-mean-square-error-observation standard deviation ratio is less than 0.65. These results indicate that the coupled model can present basin hydrological processes properly, and provide scientific support for prediction and management of basin water resources.

  20. Land-surface modelling in hydrological perspective

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Overgaard, Jesper; Rosbjerg, Dan; Butts, M.B.

    2006-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to provide a review of the different types of energy-based land-surface models (LSMs) and discuss some of the new possibilities that will arise when energy-based LSMs are combined with distributed hydrological modelling. We choose to focus on energy-based approaches......, because in comparison to the traditional potential evapotranspiration models, these approaches allow for a stronger link to remote sensing and atmospheric modelling. New opportunities for evaluation of distributed land-surface models through application of remote sensing are discussed in detail...

  1. Grid based calibration of SWAT hydrological models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Gorgan

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available The calibration and execution of large hydrological models, such as SWAT (soil and water assessment tool, developed for large areas, high resolution, and huge input data, need not only quite a long execution time but also high computation resources. SWAT hydrological model supports studies and predictions of the impact of land management practices on water, sediment, and agricultural chemical yields in complex watersheds. The paper presents the gSWAT application as a web practical solution for environmental specialists to calibrate extensive hydrological models and to run scenarios, by hiding the complex control of processes and heterogeneous resources across the grid based high computation infrastructure. The paper highlights the basic functionalities of the gSWAT platform, and the features of the graphical user interface. The presentation is concerned with the development of working sessions, interactive control of calibration, direct and basic editing of parameters, process monitoring, and graphical and interactive visualization of the results. The experiments performed on different SWAT models and the obtained results argue the benefits brought by the grid parallel and distributed environment as a solution for the processing platform. All the instances of SWAT models used in the reported experiments have been developed through the enviroGRIDS project, targeting the Black Sea catchment area.

  2. Approximating uncertainty of annual runoff and reservoir yield using stochastic replicates of global climate model data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peel, M. C.; Srikanthan, R.; McMahon, T. A.; Karoly, D. J.

    2015-04-01

    Two key sources of uncertainty in projections of future runoff for climate change impact assessments are uncertainty between global climate models (GCMs) and within a GCM. Within-GCM uncertainty is the variability in GCM output that occurs when running a scenario multiple times but each run has slightly different, but equally plausible, initial conditions. The limited number of runs available for each GCM and scenario combination within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) and phase 5 (CMIP5) data sets, limits the assessment of within-GCM uncertainty. In this second of two companion papers, the primary aim is to present a proof-of-concept approximation of within-GCM uncertainty for monthly precipitation and temperature projections and to assess the impact of within-GCM uncertainty on modelled runoff for climate change impact assessments. A secondary aim is to assess the impact of between-GCM uncertainty on modelled runoff. Here we approximate within-GCM uncertainty by developing non-stationary stochastic replicates of GCM monthly precipitation and temperature data. These replicates are input to an off-line hydrologic model to assess the impact of within-GCM uncertainty on projected annual runoff and reservoir yield. We adopt stochastic replicates of available GCM runs to approximate within-GCM uncertainty because large ensembles, hundreds of runs, for a given GCM and scenario are unavailable, other than the Climateprediction.net data set for the Hadley Centre GCM. To date within-GCM uncertainty has received little attention in the hydrologic climate change impact literature and this analysis provides an approximation of the uncertainty in projected runoff, and reservoir yield, due to within- and between-GCM uncertainty of precipitation and temperature projections. In the companion paper, McMahon et al. (2015) sought to reduce between-GCM uncertainty by removing poorly performing GCMs, resulting in a selection of five better performing GCMs from

  3. Multi-Model Grand Ensemble Hydrologic Forecasting in the Fu River Basin Using Bayesian Model Averaging

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bo Qu

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Statistical post-processing for multi-model grand ensemble (GE hydrologic predictions is necessary, in order to achieve more accurate and reliable probabilistic forecasts. This paper presents a case study which applies Bayesian model averaging (BMA to statistically post-process raw GE runoff forecasts in the Fu River basin in China, at lead times ranging from 6 to 120 h. The raw forecasts were generated by running the Xinanjiang hydrologic model with ensemble forecasts (164 forecast members, using seven different “THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble” (TIGGE weather centres as forcing inputs. Some measures, such as data transformation and high-dimensional optimization, were included in the experiment after considering the practical water regime and data conditions. The results indicate that the BMA post-processing method is capable of improving the performance of raw GE runoff forecasts, yielding more calibrated and sharp predictive probability density functions (PDFs, over a range of lead times from 24 to 120 h. The analysis of percentile forecasts in two different flood events illustrates the great potential and prospects of BMA GE probabilistic river discharge forecasts, for taking precautions against severe flooding events.

  4. Effect of Baseflow Separation on Uncertainty of Hydrological Modeling in the Xinanjiang Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kairong Lin

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Based on the idea of inputting more available useful information for evaluation to gain less uncertainty, this study focuses on how well the uncertainty can be reduced by considering the baseflow estimation information obtained from the smoothed minima method (SMM. The Xinanjiang model and the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE method with the shuffled complex evolution Metropolis (SCEM-UA sampling algorithm were used for hydrological modeling and uncertainty analysis, respectively. The Jiangkou basin, located in the upper of the Hanjiang River, was selected as case study. It was found that the number and standard deviation of behavioral parameter sets both decreased when the threshold value for the baseflow efficiency index increased, and the high Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficients correspond well with the high baseflow efficiency coefficients. The results also showed that uncertainty interval width decreased significantly, while containing ratio did not decrease by much and the simulated runoff with the behavioral parameter sets can fit better to the observed runoff, when threshold for the baseflow efficiency index was taken into consideration. These implied that using the baseflow estimation information can reduce the uncertainty in hydrological modeling to some degree and gain more reasonable prediction bounds.

  5. Delineating wetland catchments and modeling hydrologic ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    In traditional watershed delineation and topographic modeling, surface depressions are generally treated as spurious features and simply removed from a digital elevation model (DEM) to enforce flow continuity of water across the topographic surface to the watershed outlets. In reality, however, many depressions in the DEM are actual wetland landscape features with seasonal to permanent inundation patterning characterized by nested hierarchical structures and dynamic filling–spilling–merging surface-water hydrological processes. Differentiating and appropriately processing such ecohydrologically meaningful features remains a major technical terrain-processing challenge, particularly as high-resolution spatial data are increasingly used to support modeling and geographic analysis needs. The objectives of this study were to delineate hierarchical wetland catchments and model their hydrologic connectivity using high-resolution lidar data and aerial imagery. The graph-theory-based contour tree method was used to delineate the hierarchical wetland catchments and characterize their geometric and topological properties. Potential hydrologic connectivity between wetlands and streams were simulated using the least-cost-path algorithm. The resulting flow network delineated potential flow paths connecting wetland depressions to each other or to the river network on scales finer than those available through the National Hydrography Dataset. The results demonstrated that

  6. Possibilistic uncertainty analysis of a conceptual model of snowmelt runoff

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. P. Jacquin

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available This study presents the analysis of predictive uncertainty of a conceptual type snowmelt runoff model. The method applied uses possibilistic rather than probabilistic calculus for the evaluation of predictive uncertainty. Possibility theory is an information theory meant to model uncertainties caused by imprecise or incomplete knowledge about a real system rather than by randomness. A snow dominated catchment in the Chilean Andes is used as case study. Predictive uncertainty arising from parameter uncertainties of the watershed model is assessed. Model performance is evaluated according to several criteria, in order to define the possibility distribution of the parameter vector. The plausibility of the simulated glacier mass balance and snow cover are used for further constraining the model representations. Possibility distributions of the discharge estimates and prediction uncertainty bounds are subsequently derived. The results of the study indicate that the use of additional information allows a reduction of predictive uncertainty. In particular, the assessment of the simulated glacier mass balance and snow cover helps to reduce the width of the uncertainty bounds without a significant increment in the number of unbounded observations.

  7. Disaggregation, aggregation and spatial scaling in hydrological modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becker, Alfred; Braun, Peter

    1999-04-01

    A typical feature of the land surface is its heterogeneity in terms of the spatial variability of land surface characteristics and parameters controlling physical/hydrological, biological, and other related processes. Different forms and degrees of heterogeneity need to be taken into account in hydrological modelling. The first part of the article concerns the conditions under which a disaggregation of the land surface into subareas of uniform or "quasihomogeneous" behaviour (hydrotopes or hydrological response units - HRUs) is indispensable. In a case study in northern Germany, it is shown that forests in contrast to arable land, areas with shallow groundwater in contrast to those with deep, water surfaces and sealed areas should generally be distinguished (disaggregated) in modelling, whereas internal heterogeneities within these hydrotopes can be assessed statistically, e.g., by areal distribution functions (soil water holding capacity, hydraulic conductivity, etc.). Models with hydrotope-specific parameters can be applied to calculate the "vertical" processes (fluxes, storages, etc.), and this, moreover, for hydrotopes of different area, and even for groups of distributed hydrotopes in a reference area (hydrotope classes), provided that the meteorological conditions are similar. Thus, a scaling problem does not really exist in this process domain. The primary domain for the application of scaling laws is that of lateral flows in landscapes and river basins. This is illustrated in the second part of the article, where results of a case study in Bavaria/Germany are presented and discussed. It is shown that scaling laws can be applied efficiently for the determination of the Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph (IUH) of the surface runoff system in river basins: simple scaling for basins larger than 43 km 2, and multiple scaling for smaller basins. Surprisingly, only two parameters were identified as important in the derived relations: the drainage area and, in some

  8. HD Hydrological modelling at catchment scale using rainfall radar observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ciampalini Rossano. Ciampalini@Gmail. Com), Rossano; Follain, Stéphane; Raclot, Damien; Crabit, Armand; Pastor, Amandine; Augas, Julien; Moussa, Roger; Colin, François; Le Bissonnais, Yves

    2017-04-01

    Hydrological simulations at catchment scale repose on the quality and data availability both for soil and rainfall data. Soil data are quite easy to be collected, although their quality depends on the resources devoted to this task, rainfall data observations, instead, need further effort because of their spatiotemporal variability. Rainfalls are normally recorded with rain gauges located in the catchment, they can provide detailed temporal data, but, the representativeness is limited to the point where the data are collected. Combining different gauges in space can provide a better representation of the rainfall event but the spatialization is often the main obstacle to obtain data close to the reality. Since several years, radar observations overcome this gap providing continuous data registration, that, when properly calibrated, can offer an adequate, continuous, cover in space and time for medium-wide catchments. Here, we use radar records for the south of the France on the La Peyne catchment with the protocol there adopted by the national meteo agency, with resolution of 1 km space and 5' time scale observations. We present here the realisation of a model able to perform from rainfall radar observations, continuous hydrological and soil erosion simulations. The model is semi-theoretically based, once it simulates water fluxes (infiltration-excess overland flow, saturation overland flow, infiltration and channel routing) with a cinematic wave using the St. Venant equation on a simplified "bucket" conceptual model for ground water, and, an empirical representation of sediment load as adopted in models such as STREAM-LANDSOIL (Cerdan et al., 2002, Ciampalini et al., 2012). The advantage of this approach is to furnish a dynamic representation - simulation of the rainfall-runoff events more easily than using spatialized rainfalls from meteo stations and to offer a new look on the spatial component of the events.

  9. Time Varying Parameterization of Hydrological Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bardossy, A.; Singh, S. K.

    2007-12-01

    Hydrological models are frequently used for forecasting, water management or design to provide information for decision making. Due to the simplification of the complex natural processes and the limited availability of observations the parameters of these models cannot be identified perfectly. Usually the parameters of the models are assumed to be time independent. However some properties of the catchments might change in from one event to another in an unpredictable manner. The purpose of this paper is to develop a methodology to estimate selected model parameters as random variables changing in time. The distribution of the model parameter is assessed in calibration phase using different assumptions. During the application of the model these distributions are used to estimate the expected hydrological behavior and the uncertainty too. The methodology will be demonstrated on mezo-scale catchments in the Neckar basin in South-West Germany. The systematic differences between model behavior and observations are demonstrated using a set of selected events. Calibration and uncertainty estimation are demonstrated by an example application to a distributed HBV model. The model residual distributions are presented and compared to a standard calibration method. Further, it is shown that the new methodology leads to more realistic confidence intervals for model simulations.

  10. Proving the ecosystem value through hydrological modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dorner, W.; Spachinger, K.; Porter, M.; Metzka, R.

    2008-11-01

    Ecosystems provide valuable functions. Also natural floodplains and river structures offer different types of ecosystem functions such as habitat function, recreational area and natural detention. From an economic stand point the loss (or rehabilitation) of these natural systems and their provided natural services can be valued as a damage (or benefit). Consequently these natural goods and services must be economically valued in project assessments e.g. cost-benefit-analysis or cost comparison. Especially in smaller catchments and river systems exists significant evidence that natural flood detention reduces flood risk and contributes to flood protection. Several research projects evaluated the mitigating effect of land use, river training and the loss of natural flood plains on development, peak and volume of floods. The presented project analysis the hypothesis that ignoring natural detention and hydrological ecosystem services could result in economically inefficient solutions for flood protection and mitigation. In test areas, subcatchments of the Danube in Germany, a combination of hydrological and hydrodynamic models with economic evaluation techniques was applied. Different forms of land use, river structure and flood protection measures were assed and compared from a hydrological and economic point of view. A hydrodynamic model was used to simulate flows to assess the extent of flood affected areas and damages to buildings and infrastructure as well as to investigate the impacts of levees and river structure on a local scale. These model results provided the basis for an economic assessment. Different economic valuation techniques, such as flood damage functions, cost comparison method and substation-approach were used to compare the outcomes of different hydrological scenarios from an economic point of view and value the ecosystem service. The results give significant evidence that natural detention must be evaluated as part of flood mitigation projects

  11. Modelling the effect of fire frequency on runoff and erosion in north-central Portugal using the revised Morgan-Morgan-Finney

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hosseini, Mohammadreza; Nunes, João Pedro; González Pelayo, Oscar; Keizer, Jan Jacob; Ritsema, Coen; Geissen, Violette

    2017-04-01

    Models can be valuable for foreseeing the hydrological effects of fires and to plan and execute post-fire management alternatives. In this study, the revised Morgan-Morgan-Finney (MMF) model was utilized to simulate runoff and soil erosion in recently burned maritime pine plantations with different fire regimes, in a wet Mediterranean area of north-central Portugal. The MMF model was adjusted for burned zones in order to accommodate seasonal patterns in runoff and soil erosion, attributed to changes in soil water repellency and vegetation recovery. The model was then assessed by applying it for a sum of 18 experimental micro-plots (0.25 m2) at 9 1x-burnt and 9 4x-burnt slopes, using both literature-based and calibrated parameters, with the collected data used to assess the robustness of each parameterization. The estimate of erosion was more exact than that of runoff, with a general Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.54. Slope angle and the soil's effective hydrological depth (which relies on upon vegetation and additionally crop cover) were found to be the primary parameters enhancing model results, and different hydrological depths were expected to separate between the two differentiating fire regimes. This relative analysis demonstrated that most existing benchmark parameters can be utilized to apply MMF in burnt pine regions with moderate severity to support post-fire management; however it also showed that further endeavours ought to concentrate on mapping soil depth and vegetation cover to enhance these simulations.

  12. Improving catchment scale water quality modelling with continuous high resolution monitoring of metals in runoff

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saari, Markus; Rossi, Pekka; Blomberg von der Geest, Kalle; Mäkinen, Ari; Postila, Heini; Marttila, Hannu

    2017-04-01

    High metal concentrations in natural waters is one of the key environmental and health problems globally. Continuous in-situ analysis of metals from runoff water is technically challenging but essential for the better understanding of processes which lead to pollutant transport. Currently, typical analytical methods for monitoring elements in liquids are off-line laboratory methods such as ICP-OES (Inductively Coupled Plasma Optical Emission Spectroscopy) and ICP-MS (ICP combined with a mass spectrometer). Disadvantage of the both techniques is time consuming sample collection, preparation, and off-line analysis at laboratory conditions. Thus use of these techniques lack possibility for real-time monitoring of element transport. We combined a novel high resolution on-line metal concentration monitoring with catchment scale physical hydrological modelling in Mustijoki river in Southern Finland in order to study dynamics of processes and form a predictive warning system for leaching of metals. A novel on-line measurement technique based on micro plasma emission spectroscopy (MPES) is tested for on-line detection of selected elements (e.g. Na, Mg, Al, K, Ca, Fe, Ni, Cu, Cd and Pb) in runoff waters. The preliminary results indicate that MPES can sufficiently detect and monitor metal concentrations from river water. Water and Soil Assessment Tool (SWAT) catchment scale model was further calibrated with high resolution metal concentration data. We show that by combining high resolution monitoring and catchment scale physical based modelling, further process studies and creation of early warning systems, for example to optimization of drinking water uptake from rivers, can be achieved.

  13. computational intelligence for modeling rainfall-runoff process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zemzami, M.; Benaabidate, L.

    2013-05-01

    The application of neural networks is widely used recently in streamflow forecasting because of it flexible mathematical structure. The relationship between rainfall and streamflow is complex and non-linear, and depends on a large number of parameters that are not available all the time and also are not easy to identify. In such situation, where explicit knowledge of the internal hydrologic system is not available, artificial neural networks can be a good tool to model the non linear hydrologic behavior of watershed without attempting to reach understanding as to the nature of the physical process. In this study we attempt to explore the potential of neural networks in simulating the non-linear relationship between rainfall and streamflow in Anseghmir watershed. And link the two important parameters that generate the dynamic of this complex system. The architecture used in this study is the multilayer feedforward neural network with the Levenberg-Marquardt learning algorithm. The ANN generated results are evaluated using MSE and MAE errors and correlation between observed and simulated values of streamflow. The results show that ANNs are a strong tool to approximate complicated nonlinear functions where there is a poor knowledge about the physical process.

  14. Use of distributed snow cover information to update snow storages of a lumped rainfall-runoff model operationally

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lisniak, D.; Meissner, D.; Klein, B.; Pinzinger, R.

    2013-12-01

    The German Federal Institute of Hydrology (BfG) offers navigational water-level forecasting services on the Federal Waterways, like the rivers Rhine and Danube. In cooperation with the Federal States this mandate also includes the forecasting of flood events. For the River Rhine, the most frequented inland waterway in Central Europe, the BfG employs a hydrological model (HBV) coupled to a hydraulic model (SOBEK) by the FEWS-framework to perform daily forecasts of water-levels operationally. Sensitivity studies have shown that the state of soil water storage in the hydrological model is a major factor of uncertainty when performing short- to medium-range forecasts some days ahead. Taking into account the various additional sources of uncertainty associated with hydrological modeling, including measurement uncertainties, it is essential to estimate an optimal initial state of the soil water storage before propagating it in time, forced by meteorological forecasts, and transforming it into discharge. We show, that using the Ensemble Kalman Filter these initial states can be updated straightforward under certain hydrologic conditions. However, this approach is not sufficient if the runoff is mainly generated by snow melt. Since the snow cover evolution is modeled rather poorly by the HBV-model in our operational setting, flood events caused by snow melt are consistently underestimated by the HBV-model, which has long term effects in basins characterized by a nival runoff regime. Thus, it appears beneficial to update the snow storage of the HBV-model with information derived from regionalized snow cover observations. We present a method to incorporate spatially distributed snow cover observations into the lumped HBV-model. We show the plausibility of this approach and asses the benefits of a coupled snow cover and soil water storage updating, which combine a direct insertion with an Ensemble Kalman Filter. The Ensemble Kalman Filter used here takes into account the

  15. Hydrological modelling of fine sediments in the Odzi River, Zimbabwe

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Furthermore, since the empirical model was dependent on monitored runoff and fine sediment concentrations for calibration purposes, a field measurement campaign was conducted to assess the accuracy of observed data at the station studied. The field measurements showed large errors in monitored runoff and fine ...

  16. Watershed Runoff Model Uncertainty as affected by Spatial Climate Data Resolution for McKenzie River, OR

    Science.gov (United States)

    Epps, T. H.; Chang, H.; Jung, I.; Nolin, A. W.; Roth, T.

    2012-12-01

    Climate change and the potential impacts that it will have on water resources must be assessed through watershed modeling and forecasting to guide effective management strategies that will accommodate future uncertainty in climate patterns. Watershed modeling is a valuable method to assess potential changes in the timing and quantity of streamflow and the impacts that shifts in streamflow dynamics may have on the availability of local water resources. This has been observed for the Pacific Northwest's Willamette River Basin (WRB) in previous studies that display substantial potential for local changes in streamflow due to a changing climate. Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), a semi-distributed physically-based hydrologic model, was used to simulate runoff in sub-basins of the Willamette River that originate in the Cascades region of Oregon. These sub-basins have displayed high sensitivity to parameters associated with snowpack accumulation and evolution processes due to larger annual snowfall amounts than in lower elevations. Snowpack acts as a temporal storage for hydrologic inputs in these sub-basins and snowpack evolution processes, subject to ambient climate conditions, influence the timing of streamflows and the seasonal resiliency of water resources in these areas. Accuracy in modeling these snowpack processes is important in forecasting changes in streamflow timing and magnitude that will occur under climate change scenarios. PRMS models snowpack evolution using daily measurements of precipitation, solar radiation, and the maximum and minimum temperatures. Measured precipitation is apportioned between rainfall and snowfall based on measured daily temperature ranges and spatial parameters linked to topography and land cover. The McKenzie River (MCK) sub-basin of the WRB has its headwaters in the high Cascades region and is influenced by annual snowpack accumulation and snowmelt processes. This study will assess the uncertainty in PRMS modeling

  17. An integrated crop and hydrologic modeling system to estimate hydrologic impacts of crop irrigation demands

    Science.gov (United States)

    R.T. McNider; C. Handyside; K. Doty; W.L. Ellenburg; J.F. Cruise; J.R. Christy; D. Moss; V. Sharda; G. Hoogenboom; Peter Caldwell

    2015-01-01

    The present paper discusses a coupled gridded crop modeling and hydrologic modeling system that can examine the benefits of irrigation and costs of irrigation and the coincident impact of the irrigation water withdrawals on surface water hydrology. The system is applied to the Southeastern U.S. The system tools to be discussed include a gridded version (GriDSSAT) of...

  18. Improving the Xin'anjiang hydrological model based on mass-energy balance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, Yuan-Hao; Zhang, Xingnan; Corbari, Chiara; Mancini, Marco; Niu, Guo-Yue; Zeng, Wenzhi

    2017-07-01

    Conceptual hydrological models are preferable for real-time flood forecasting, among which the Xin'anjiang (XAJ) model has been widely applied in humid and semi-humid regions of China. Although the relatively simple mass balance scheme ensures a good performance of runoff simulation during flood events, the model still has some defects. Previous studies have confirmed the importance of evapotranspiration (ET) and soil moisture content (SMC) in runoff simulation. In order to add more constraints to the original XAJ model, an energy balance scheme suitable for the XAJ model was developed and coupled with the original mass balance scheme of the XAJ model. The detailed parameterizations of the improved model, XAJ-EB, are presented in the first part of this paper. XAJ-EB employs various meteorological forcing and remote sensing data as input, simulating ET and runoff yield using a more physically based mass-energy balance scheme. In particular, the energy balance is solved by determining the representative equilibrium temperature (RET), which is comparable to land surface temperature (LST). The XAJ-EB was evaluated in the Lushui catchment situated in the middle reach of the Yangtze River basin for the period between 2004 and 2007. Validation using ground-measured runoff data proves that the XAJ-EB is capable of reproducing runoff comparable to the original XAJ model. Additionally, RET simulated by XAJ-EB agreed well with moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS)-retrieved LST, which further confirms that the model is able to simulate the mass-energy balance since LST reflects the interactions among various processes. The validation results prove that the XAJ-EB model has superior performance compared with the XAJ model and also extends its applicability.

  19. Improving the Xin'anjiang hydrological model based on mass–energy balance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y.-H. Fang

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Conceptual hydrological models are preferable for real-time flood forecasting, among which the Xin'anjiang (XAJ model has been widely applied in humid and semi-humid regions of China. Although the relatively simple mass balance scheme ensures a good performance of runoff simulation during flood events, the model still has some defects. Previous studies have confirmed the importance of evapotranspiration (ET and soil moisture content (SMC in runoff simulation. In order to add more constraints to the original XAJ model, an energy balance scheme suitable for the XAJ model was developed and coupled with the original mass balance scheme of the XAJ model. The detailed parameterizations of the improved model, XAJ-EB, are presented in the first part of this paper. XAJ-EB employs various meteorological forcing and remote sensing data as input, simulating ET and runoff yield using a more physically based mass–energy balance scheme. In particular, the energy balance is solved by determining the representative equilibrium temperature (RET, which is comparable to land surface temperature (LST. The XAJ-EB was evaluated in the Lushui catchment situated in the middle reach of the Yangtze River basin for the period between 2004 and 2007. Validation using ground-measured runoff data proves that the XAJ-EB is capable of reproducing runoff comparable to the original XAJ model. Additionally, RET simulated by XAJ-EB agreed well with moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS-retrieved LST, which further confirms that the model is able to simulate the mass–energy balance since LST reflects the interactions among various processes. The validation results prove that the XAJ-EB model has superior performance compared with the XAJ model and also extends its applicability.

  20. Spatial Interpolation of Annual Runoff in Ungauged Basins Based on the Improved Information Diffusion Model Using a Genetic Algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mei Hong

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Prediction in Ungauged Basins (PUB is an important task for water resources planning and management and remains a fundamental challenge for the hydrological community. In recent years, geostatistical methods have proven valuable for estimating hydrological variables in ungauged catchments. However, four major problems restrict the development of geostatistical methods. We established a new information diffusion model based on genetic algorithm (GIDM for spatial interpolating of runoff in the ungauged basins. Genetic algorithms (GA are used to generate high-quality solutions to optimization and search problems. So, using GA, the parameter of optimal window width can be obtained. To test our new method, seven experiments for the annual runoff interpolation based on GIDM at 17 stations on the mainstream and tributaries of the Yellow River are carried out and compared with the inverse distance weighting (IDW method, Cokriging (COK method, and conventional IDMs using the same sparse observed data. The seven experiments all show that the GIDM method can solve four problems of the previous geostatistical methods to some extent and obtains best accuracy among four different models. The key problems of the PUB research are the lack of observation data and the difficulties in information extraction. So the GIDM is a new and useful tool to solve the Prediction in Ungauged Basins (PUB problem and to improve the water management.

  1. Regional scale hydrology with a new land surface processes model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laymon, Charles; Crosson, William

    1995-01-01

    Through the CaPE Hydrometeorology Project, we have developed an understanding of some of the unique data quality issues involved in assimilating data of disparate types for regional-scale hydrologic modeling within a GIS framework. Among others, the issues addressed here include the development of adequate validation of the surface water budget, implementation of the STATSGO soil data set, and implementation of a remote sensing-derived landcover data set to account for surface heterogeneity. A model of land surface processes has been developed and used in studies of the sensitivity of surface fluxes and runoff to soil and landcover characterization. Results of these experiments have raised many questions about how to treat the scale-dependence of land surface-atmosphere interactions on spatial and temporal variability. In light of these questions, additional modifications are being considered for the Marshall Land Surface Processes Model. It is anticipated that these techniques can be tested and applied in conjunction with GCIP activities over regional scales.

  2. Remote sensing applications in hydrological modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitelaw, Alan S.; Howes, Sally; Fletcher, Peter; Rast, Michael

    1995-01-01

    Hydrological modeling is important for a wide range of operational forecasting activities in water resource management. The aim of this paper is to assess the capabilities of Earth observation sensors in relation to modeling data requirements in order to identify future areas of development in both model and sensor specifications. Models range from simple black boxes to distributed physically based models. There is significant variation in the data required and the ways in which these data are used. This range of requirements is compared with the capabilities of existing Earth observation sensors in order to define the current situation. Progress requires the coordinated development of both the sensors and the models, together with a greater understanding of the relationship between measurement and process scales. As a result, existing obstacles to progress in both areas are reviewed with the aid of specific case studies. This analysis leads to a set of recommendations on how to develop the use of sensor data in models.

  3. Xanthos – A Global Hydrologic Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li, Xinya; Vernon, Chris R.; Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Link, Robert P.; Feng, Leyang; Liu, Yaling; Rauchenstein, Lynn T.

    2017-09-11

    Xanthos is a Python model designed to quantify and analyze global water availability historically and in the future at 0.5° × 0.5° spatial resolution and a monthly time step. Its performance and functionality was tested through real-world applications. It is open-source, extensible and accessible for researchers who work on long-term climate data for studies of global water supply, and the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). This package integrates inherent global gridded data maps, I/O modules, hydrologic processes and diagnostics modules parameterized by a user-defined configuration file.

  4. Land use as a Parameter of Distributed Hydrological Modeling at the CATIE Farm, Turrialba, Costa Rica.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toohey, R.; Boll, J.; Brooks, E.; Jones, J.

    2007-05-01

    As distributed hydrological models continue to develop, their amount of spatial detail requires the evaluation of a larger set of variables. Deforestation is often cited as a principal cause of changing hydrological regimes in the tropics. However, many studies debate the exact mechanism of change. Also, much of the tropics have been permanently deforested for agricultural expansion. Therefore, in this study we instrumented fields (1-6 ha) of four common land uses (forest, coffee agroforestry, sugar cane, and pasture) with meteorological stations, soil moisture probes, and H-flumes. Additional field measurements have shown differences in bulk density, saturated hydraulic conductivity, and soil moisture dynamics between land uses. Hydrograph analysis suggests that the pasture site responds differently to rainfall than the other land uses. Runoff from the pasture site results in higher intensity, greater volume, and shorter duration runoff events than the other land uses. However, the other land uses respond more frequently with lower maximum event intensities, lower volumes and longer durations. In the forest and coffee sites, soil moisture dynamics suggest the importance of lateral preferential flow paths due to root influenced soil structure for runoff response. Therefore, while vertical Ksat values may be greater at all sites than most rainfall intensities, lateral Ksat values may differ significantly between sites. Field measurements and the distributed physically based Soil Moisture Routing (SMR) model are being used test hypotheses, and direct further field research. These results will prove important to understand hydrological connectivity in fragmented landscapes, and the potential recovery of hydrological services within a typical humid tropical environment.

  5. Scale effects in Hortonian surface runoff on agricultural slopes in West Africa: Field data and models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Giesen, van de N.; Stomph, T.J.; Ajayi, A.E.; Bagayoko, F.

    2011-01-01

    This article provides an overview of both experimental and modeling research carried out over the past 15 years by the authors addressing scaling effects in Hortonian surface runoff. Hortonian surface runoff occurs when rainfall intensity exceeds infiltration capacity of the soil. At three sites in

  6. Wildcat5 for Windows, a rainfall-runoff hydrograph model: user manual and documentation

    Science.gov (United States)

    R. H. Hawkins; A. Barreto-Munoz

    2016-01-01

    Wildcat5 for Windows (Wildcat5) is an interactive Windows Excel-based software package designed to assist watershed specialists in analyzing rainfall runoff events to predict peak flow and runoff volumes generated by single-event rainstorms for a variety of watershed soil and vegetation conditions. Model inputs are: (1) rainstorm characteristics, (2) parameters related...

  7. Markov-switching model for nonstationary runoff conditioned on El Nino information

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gelati, Emiliano; Madsen, H.; Rosbjerg, Dan

    2010-01-01

    We define a Markov-modulated autoregressive model with exogenous input (MARX) to generate runoff scenarios using climatic information. Runoff parameterization is assumed to be conditioned on a hidden climate state following a Markov chain, where state transition probabilities are functions...... of the climatic input. MARX allows stochastic modeling of nonstationary runoff, as runoff anomalies are described by a mixture of autoregressive models with exogenous input, each one corresponding to a climate state. We apply MARX to inflow time series of the Daule Peripa reservoir (Ecuador). El Nino Southern...... Oscillation (ENSO) information is used to condition runoff parameterization. Among the investigated ENSO indexes, the NINO 1+2 sea surface temperature anomalies and the trans-Nino index perform best as predictors. In the perspective of reservoir optimization at various time scales, MARX produces realistic...

  8. Evaluating spatial patterns in hydrological modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Koch, Julian

    with respect to their capability to mimic human evaluations. This PhD thesis aims at expanding the standard toolbox of spatial model evaluation with innovative metrics that adequately compare spatial patterns. Driven by the rise of more complex model structures and the increase of suitable remote sensing......The objective of this PhD study is to investigate possible ways towards a better integration of spatial observations into the modelling process via spatial pattern evaluation. It is widely recognized by the modelling community that the grand potential of readily available spatial observations...... is not fully exploited by current modelling frameworks due to the lack of suitable spatial performance metrics. Furthermore, the traditional model evaluation using discharge is found unsuitable to lay confidence on the predicted catchment inherent spatial variability of hydrological processes in a fully...

  9. Green roof rainfall-runoff modelling: is the comparison between conceptual and physically based approaches relevant?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Versini, Pierre-Antoine; Tchiguirinskaia, Ioulia; Schertzer, Daniel

    2017-04-01

    Green roofs are commonly considered as efficient tools to mitigate urban runoff as they can store precipitation, and consequently provide retention and detention performances. Designed as a compromise between water holding capacity, weight and hydraulic conductivity, their substrate is usually an artificial media differentiating significantly from a traditional soil. In order to assess green roofs hydrological performances, many models have been developed. Classified into two categories (conceptual and physically based), they are usually applied to reproduce the discharge of a particular monitored green roof considered as homogeneous. Although the resulted simulations could be satisfactory, the question of robustness and consistency of the calibrated parameters is often not addressed. Here, a modeling framework has been developed to assess the efficiency and the robustness of both modelling approaches (conceptual and physically based) in reproducing green roof hydrological behaviour. SWMM and VS2DT models have been used for this purpose. This work also benefits from an experimental setup where several green roofs differentiated by their substrate thickness and vegetation cover are monitored. Based on the data collected for several rainfall events, it has been studied how the calibrated parameters are effectively linked to their physical properties and how they can vary from one green roof configuration to another. Although both models reproduce correctly the observed discharges in most of the cases, their calibrated parameters exhibit a high inconsistency. For a same green roof configuration, these parameters can vary significantly from one rainfall event to another, even if they are supposed to be linked to the green roof characteristics (roughness, residual moisture content for instance). They can also be different from one green roof configuration to another although the implemented substrate is the same. Finally, it appears very difficult to find any

  10. Scale effect challenges in urban hydrology highlighted with a distributed hydrological model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Ichiba

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Hydrological models are extensively used in urban water management, development and evaluation of future scenarios and research activities. There is a growing interest in the development of fully distributed and grid-based models. However, some complex questions related to scale effects are not yet fully understood and still remain open issues in urban hydrology. In this paper we propose a two-step investigation framework to illustrate the extent of scale effects in urban hydrology. First, fractal tools are used to highlight the scale dependence observed within distributed data input into urban hydrological models. Then an intensive multi-scale modelling work is carried out to understand scale effects on hydrological model performance. Investigations are conducted using a fully distributed and physically based model, Multi-Hydro, developed at Ecole des Ponts ParisTech. The model is implemented at 17 spatial resolutions ranging from 100 to 5 m. Results clearly exhibit scale effect challenges in urban hydrology modelling. The applicability of fractal concepts highlights the scale dependence observed within distributed data. Patterns of geophysical data change when the size of the observation pixel changes. The multi-scale modelling investigation confirms scale effects on hydrological model performance. Results are analysed over three ranges of scales identified in the fractal analysis and confirmed through modelling. This work also discusses some remaining issues in urban hydrology modelling related to the availability of high-quality data at high resolutions, and model numerical instabilities as well as the computation time requirements. The main findings of this paper enable a replacement of traditional methods of model calibration by innovative methods of model resolution alteration based on the spatial data variability and scaling of flows in urban hydrology.

  11. First application of the WEPP model to predict runoff and erosion risk in fire-affected volcanic areas in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neris, Jonay; Robichaud, Peter R.; Elliot, William J.; Doerr, Stefan H.; Notario del Pino, Jesús S.; Lado, Marcos

    2017-04-01

    An estimated that 15% of the world's population lives in volcanic areas. Recent catastrophic erosion events following wildfires in volcanic terrain have highlighted the geomorphological instability of this soil type under disturbed conditions and steep slopes. Predicting the hydrological and erosional response of this soils in the post-fire period is the first step to design and develop adequate actions to minimize risks in the post-fire period. In this work we apply, for the first time, the Water Erosion Prediction Project model for predicting erosion and runoff events in fire-affected volcanic soils in Europe. Two areas affected by wildfires in 2015 were selected in Tenerife (Spain) representative of different fire behaviour (downhill surface fire with long residence time vs uphill crown fire with short residence time), severity (moderate soil burn severity vs light soil burn severity) and climatic conditions (average annual precipitation of 750 and 210 mm respectively). The actual erosion processes were monitored in the field using silt fences. Rainfall and rill simulations were conducted to determine hydrologic, interrill and rill erosion parameters. The soils were sampled and key properties used as model input, evaluated. During the first 18 months after the fire 7 storms produced runoff and erosion in the selected areas. Sediment delivery reached 5.4 and 2.5 Mg ha-1 respectively in the first rainfall event monitored after the fire, figures comparable to those reported for fire-affected areas of the western USA with similar climatic conditions but lower than those showed by wetter environments. The validation of the WEPP model using field data showed reasonable estimates of hillslope sediment delivery in the post-fire period and, therefore, it is suggested that this model can support land managers in volcanic areas in Europe in predicting post-fire hydrological and erosional risks and designing suitable mitigation treatments.

  12. Modeling the Hydrologic Effects of Large-Scale Green Infrastructure Projects with GIS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bado, R. A.; Fekete, B. M.; Khanbilvardi, R.

    2015-12-01

    Impervious surfaces in urban areas generate excess runoff, which in turn causes flooding, combined sewer overflows, and degradation of adjacent surface waters. Municipal environmental protection agencies have shown a growing interest in mitigating these effects with 'green' infrastructure practices that partially restore the perviousness and water holding capacity of urban centers. Assessment of the performance of current and future green infrastructure projects is hindered by the lack of adequate hydrological modeling tools; conventional techniques fail to account for the complex flow pathways of urban environments, and detailed analyses are difficult to prepare for the very large domains in which green infrastructure projects are implemented. Currently, no standard toolset exists that can rapidly and conveniently predict runoff, consequent inundations, and sewer overflows at a city-wide scale. We demonstrate how streamlined modeling techniques can be used with open-source GIS software to efficiently model runoff in large urban catchments. Hydraulic parameters and flow paths through city blocks, roadways, and sewer drains are automatically generated from GIS layers, and ultimately urban flow simulations can be executed for a variety of rainfall conditions. With this methodology, users can understand the implications of large-scale land use changes and green/gray storm water retention systems on hydraulic loading, peak flow rates, and runoff volumes.

  13. One-Water Hydrologic Flow Model (MODFLOW-OWHM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanson, Randall T.; Boyce, Scott E.; Schmid, Wolfgang; Hughes, Joseph D.; Mehl, Steffen W.; Leake, Stanley A.; Maddock, Thomas; Niswonger, Richard G.

    2014-01-01

    The One-Water Hydrologic Flow Model (MF-OWHM) is a MODFLOW-based integrated hydrologic flow model (IHM) that is the most complete version, to date, of the MODFLOW family of hydrologic simulators needed for the analysis of a broad range of conjunctive-use issues. Conjunctive use is the combined use of groundwater and surface water. MF-OWHM allows the simulation, analysis, and management of nearly all components of human and natural water movement and use in a physically-based supply-and-demand framework. MF-OWHM is based on the Farm Process for MODFLOW-2005 (MF-FMP2) combined with Local Grid Refinement (LGR) for embedded models to allow use of the Farm Process (FMP) and Streamflow Routing (SFR) within embedded grids. MF-OWHM also includes new features such as the Surface-water Routing Process (SWR), Seawater Intrusion (SWI), and Riparian Evapotrasnpiration (RIP-ET), and new solvers such as Newton-Raphson (NWT) and nonlinear preconditioned conjugate gradient (PCGN). This IHM also includes new connectivities to expand the linkages for deformation-, flow-, and head-dependent flows. Deformation-dependent flows are simulated through the optional linkage to simulated land subsidence with a vertically deforming mesh. Flow-dependent flows now include linkages between the new SWR with SFR and FMP, as well as connectivity with embedded models for SFR and FMP through LGR. Head-dependent flows now include a modified Hydrologic Flow Barrier Package (HFB) that allows optional transient HFB capabilities, and the flow between any two layers that are adjacent along a depositional or erosional boundary or displaced along a fault. MF-OWHM represents a complete operational hydrologic model that fully links the movement and use of groundwater, surface water, and imported water for consumption by irrigated agriculture, but also of water used in urban areas and by natural vegetation. Supply and demand components of water use are analyzed under demand-driven and supply

  14. Modelling of green roofs' hydrologic performance using EPA's SWMM.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burszta-Adamiak, E; Mrowiec, M

    2013-01-01

    Green roofs significantly affect the increase in water retention and thus the management of rain water in urban areas. In Poland, as in many other European countries, excess rainwater resulting from snowmelt and heavy rainfall contributes to the development of local flooding in urban areas. Opportunities to reduce surface runoff and reduce flood risks are among the reasons why green roofs are more likely to be used also in this country. However, there are relatively few data on their in situ performance. In this study the storm water performance was simulated for the green roofs experimental plots using the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) with Low Impact Development (LID) Controls module (version 5.0.022). The model consists of many parameters for a particular layer of green roofs but simulation results were unsatisfactory considering the hydrologic response of the green roofs. For the majority of the tested rain events, the Nash coefficient had negative values. It indicates a weak fit between observed and measured flow-rates. Therefore complexity of the LID module does not affect the increase of its accuracy. Further research at a technical scale is needed to determine the role of the green roof slope, vegetation cover and drying process during the inter-event periods.

  15. Analysis of baseflow index based hydrological model in Upper Wei River basin on the Loess Plateau in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, D.; Chang, J.; Tian, F.; Huang, Q.; Meng, X.

    2015-05-01

    The baseflow is the drainage from the groundwater and soil water to the streamflow. As one important source of the streamflow, the baseflow could be the main source of the streamflow in the dry season. The Wei River, located in the semi-arid region of the Loess Plateau which is overlain by deep and loose soil, is the largest tributary of the Yellow River. According to former research, most of the streamflow in the dry season in the headwater of the Yellow River is baseflow. For the whole Yellow River basin, the baseflow is an important component of the streamflow, and accounts for about 44% of the annual runoff. Physically-based distributed hydrological models can simulate the runoff components separately, and are important tools to analyse the runoff components. Given the importance of the baseflow in the dry season for drought relief to support the ecological water requirement and irrigation, especially in the Wei River, the baseflow is analysed in this study. To investigate the baseflow in the Upper Wei River basin, a semi-distributed hydrological model based on a Representative Elementary Watershed approach (THREW) is employed to investigate the runoff generation process. To compare the results, an automatic baseflow separation method proposed by Arnold is used to separate the baseflow from the daily streamflow at Beidao hydrological station in Upper Wei River basin from 2001 to 2004. Based on the hydrological modelling and the Arnold separation method, the average annual baseflow index, i.e. the ratio of baseflow to the total runoff, is estimated as in the range of 0.30-0.36. The average intra-annual monthly baseflow index represents the seasonality of the baseflow due to the seasonality of the precipitation and evapotranspiration, and is also analysed.

  16. Analysis of baseflow index based hydrological model in Upper Wei River basin on the Loess Plateau in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Liu

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available The baseflow is the drainage from the groundwater and soil water to the streamflow. As one important source of the streamflow, the baseflow could be the main source of the streamflow in the dry season. The Wei River, located in the semi-arid region of the Loess Plateau which is overlain by deep and loose soil, is the largest tributary of the Yellow River. According to former research, most of the streamflow in the dry season in the headwater of the Yellow River is baseflow. For the whole Yellow River basin, the baseflow is an important component of the streamflow, and accounts for about 44% of the annual runoff. Physically-based distributed hydrological models can simulate the runoff components separately, and are important tools to analyse the runoff components. Given the importance of the baseflow in the dry season for drought relief to support the ecological water requirement and irrigation, especially in the Wei River, the baseflow is analysed in this study. To investigate the baseflow in the Upper Wei River basin, a semi-distributed hydrological model based on a Representative Elementary Watershed approach (THREW is employed to investigate the runoff generation process. To compare the results, an automatic baseflow separation method proposed by Arnold is used to separate the baseflow from the daily streamflow at Beidao hydrological station in Upper Wei River basin from 2001 to 2004. Based on the hydrological modelling and the Arnold separation method, the average annual baseflow index, i.e. the ratio of baseflow to the total runoff, is estimated as in the range of 0.30–0.36. The average intra-annual monthly baseflow index represents the seasonality of the baseflow due to the seasonality of the precipitation and evapotranspiration, and is also analysed.

  17. visCOS: An R-package to evaluate model performance of hydrological models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klotz, Daniel; Herrnegger, Mathew; Wesemann, Johannes; Schulz, Karsten

    2016-04-01

    pivotal tool in model evaluation. They allow inferences about different systematic model-shortcomings and are an efficient way for communicating these in practice (Schulz et al., 2015). The evaluation and construction of such water balances is implemented with the presented package. During the (manual) calibration of a model or in the scope of model development, many model runs and iterations are necessary. Thus, users are often interested in comparing different model results in a visual way in order to learn about the model and to analyse parameter-changes on the output. A method to illuminate these differences and the evolution of changes is also included. References: • Gupta, H.V.; Wagener, T.; Liu, Y. (2008): Reconciling theory with observations: elements of a diagnostic approach to model evaluation, Hydrol. Process. 22, doi: 10.1002/hyp.6989. • Klemeš, V. (1986): Operational testing of hydrological simulation models, Hydrolog. Sci. J., doi: 10.1080/02626668609491024. • Kling, H.; Stanzel, P.; Fuchs, M.; and Nachtnebel, H. P. (2014): Performance of the COSERO precipitation-runoff model under non-stationary conditions in basins with different climates, Hydrolog. Sci. J., doi: 10.1080/02626667.2014.959956. • Schulz, K., Herrnegger, M., Wesemann, J., Klotz, D. Senoner, T. (2015): Kalibrierung COSERO - Mur für Pro Vis, Verbund Trading GmbH (Abteilung STG), final report, Institute of Water Management, Hydrology and Hydraulic Engineering, University of Natural Resources and Applied Life Sciences, Vienna, Austria, 217pp. • Zambrano-Bigiarini, M; Bellin, A. (2010): Comparing Goodness-of-fit Measures for Calibration of Models Focused on Extreme Events. European Geosciences Union (EGU), Geophysical Research Abstracts 14, EGU2012-11549-1.

  18. CHARIS (Contribution to High Asia Runoff from Ice and Snow) Lessons Learned in Capacity-Building for Hydrological Sciences with Asian Partner Communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brodzik, M. J.; Armstrong, R. L.; Armstrong, B. R.; Barrett, A. P.; Fetterer, F. M.; Hill, A. F.; Hughes, H.; Khalsa, S. J. S.; Racoviteanu, A.; Raup, B. H.; Rittger, K.; Williams, M. W.; Wilson, A. M.

    2016-12-01

    Funded by USAID and based at the University of Colorado, the Contribution to High Asia Runoff from Ice & Snow (CHARIS) project has among its objectives both scientific and capacity-building goals. We are systematically assessing the role of glaciers and seasonal snow in the freshwater resources of High Asia to better forecast future availability and vulnerability of water resources in the region. We are collaborating with Asian partner institutions in eight nations across High Asia (Bhutan, Nepal, India, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan). Our capacity-building activities include data-sharing, training, supporting field work and education and infrastructure development, which includes creating the only water-chemistry laboratory of its kind in Bhutan. We have also derived reciprocal benefits from our partners, learning from their specialized local knowledge and obtaining access to otherwise unavailable in situ data. Our presentation will share lessons learned in our annual training workshops with our Asian collaborators, at which we have interspersed remote sensing and hydrological modelling lectures with GIS and python programming, and hands-on applications using remote sensing data. Our challenges have included technological issues such as: power incompatibilities, reliable shipping methods to remote locations, bandwidth limitations to transferring large remote sensing data sets, cost of proprietary software, choosing among free software alternatives, and negotiating the formats and jargon of remote sensing data to get to the science as quickly as possible. We will describe successes and failures in training methods we have used, what we look for in training venue facilities, and how our approach has changed in response to student evaluations and partner feedback.

  19. Hydrology under change: an evaluation protocol to investigate how hydrological models deal with changing catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    G. Thirel; V. Andreassian; C. Perrin; J.-N. Audouy; L. Berthet; Pamela Edwards; N. Folton; C. Furusho; A. Kuentz; J. Lerat; G. Lindstrom; E. Martin; T. Mathevet; R. Merz; J. Parajka; D. Ruelland; J. Vaze

    2015-01-01

    Testing hydrological models under changing conditions is essential to evaluate their ability to cope with changing catchments and their suitability for impact studies. With this perspective in mind, a workshop dedicated to this issue was held at the 2013 General Assembly of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS) in Göteborg, Sweden, in July 2013...

  20. [Local sensitivity and its stationarity analysis for urban rainfall runoff modelling].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Jie; Huang, Jin-Liang; Du, Peng-Fei; Tu, Zhen-Shun; Li, Qing-Sheng

    2010-09-01

    Sensitivity analysis of urban-runoff simulation is a crucial procedure for parameter identification and uncertainty analysis. Local sensitivity analysis using Morris screening method was carried out for urban rainfall runoff modelling based on Storm Water Management Model (SWMM). The results showed that Area, % Imperv and Dstore-Imperv are the most sensitive parameters for both total runoff volume and peak flow. Concerning total runoff volume, the sensitive indices of Area, % Imperv and Dstore-Imperv were 0.46-1.0, 0.61-1.0, -0.050(-) - 5.9, respectively; while with respect to peak runoff, they were 0.48-0.89, 0.59-0.83, 0(-) -9.6, respectively. In comparison, the most sensitive indices (Morris) for all parameters with regard to total runoff volume and peak flow appeared in the rainfall event with least rainfall; and less sensitive indices happened in the rainfall events with heavier rainfall. Furthermore, there is considerable variability in sensitive indices for each rainfall event. % Zero-Imperv's coefficient variations have the largest values among all parameters for total runoff volume and peak flow, namely 221.24% and 228.10%. On the contrary, the coefficient variations of conductivity among all parameters for both total runoff volume and peak flow are the smallest, namely 0.

  1. Impact of model structure on flow simulation and hydrological realism: from a lumped to a semi-distributed approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garavaglia, Federico; Le Lay, Matthieu; Gottardi, Fréderic; Garçon, Rémy; Gailhard, Joël; Paquet, Emmanuel; Mathevet, Thibault

    2017-08-01

    Model intercomparison experiments are widely used to investigate and improve hydrological model performance. However, a study based only on runoff simulation is not sufficient to discriminate between different model structures. Hence, there is a need to improve hydrological models for specific streamflow signatures (e.g., low and high flow) and multi-variable predictions (e.g., soil moisture, snow and groundwater). This study assesses the impact of model structure on flow simulation and hydrological realism using three versions of a hydrological model called MORDOR: the historical lumped structure and a revisited formulation available in both lumped and semi-distributed structures. In particular, the main goal of this paper is to investigate the relative impact of model equations and spatial discretization on flow simulation, snowpack representation and evapotranspiration estimation. Comparison of the models is based on an extensive dataset composed of 50 catchments located in French mountainous regions. The evaluation framework is founded on a multi-criterion split-sample strategy. All models were calibrated using an automatic optimization method based on an efficient genetic algorithm. The evaluation framework is enriched by the assessment of snow and evapotranspiration modeling against in situ and satellite data. The results showed that the new model formulations perform significantly better than the initial one in terms of the various streamflow signatures, snow and evapotranspiration predictions. The semi-distributed approach provides better calibration-validation performance for the snow cover area, snow water equivalent and runoff simulation, especially for nival catchments.

  2. On the use of three hydrological models as hypotheses to investigate the behaviour of a small Mediterranean catchment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruiz Pérez, Guiomar; Latron, Jérôme; Llorens, Pilar; Gallart, Francesc; Francés, Félix

    2017-04-01

    Selecting an adequate hydrological model is the first step to carry out a rainfall-runoff modelling exercise. A hydrological model is a hypothesis of catchment functioning, encompassing a description of dominant hydrological processes and predicting how these processes interact to produce the catchment's response to external forcing. Current research lines emphasize the importance of multiple working hypotheses for hydrological modelling instead of only using a single model. In line with this philosophy, here different hypotheses were considered and analysed to simulate the nonlinear response of a small Mediterranean catchment and to progress in the analysis of its hydrological behaviour. In particular, three hydrological models were considered representing different potential hypotheses: two lumped models called LU3 and LU4, and one distributed model called TETIS. To determine how well each specific model performed and to assess whether a model was more adequate than another, we raised three complementary tests: one based on the analysis of residual errors series, another based on a sensitivity analysis and the last one based on using multiple evaluation criteria associated to the concept of Pareto frontier. This modelling approach, based on multiple working hypotheses, helped to improve our perceptual model of the catchment behaviour and, furthermore, could be used as a guidance to improve the performance of other environmental models.

  3. Impact of geological model uncertainty on integrated catchment hydrological modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Xin; Jørgensen, Flemming; Refsgaard, Jens Christian

    2014-05-01

    Various types of uncertainty can influence hydrological model performance. Among them, uncertainty originated from geological model may play an important role in process-based integrated hydrological modeling, if the model is used outside the calibration base. In the present study, we try to assess the hydrological model predictive uncertainty caused by uncertainty of the geology using an ensemble of geological models with equal plausibility. The study is carried out in the 101 km2 Norsminde catchment in western Denmark. Geostatistical software TProGS is used to generate 20 stochastic geological realizations for the west side the of study area. This process is done while incorporating the borehole log data from 108 wells and high resolution airborne transient electromagnetic (AEM) data for conditioning. As a result, 10 geological models are generated based solely on borehole data, and another 10 geological models are based on both borehole and AEM data. Distributed surface water - groundwater models are developed using MIKE SHE code for each of the 20 geological models. The models are then calibrated using field data collected from stream discharge and groundwater head observations. The model simulation results are evaluated based on the same two types of field data. The results show that the differences between simulated discharge flows caused by using different geological models are relatively small. The model calibration is shown to be able to account for the systematic bias in different geological realizations and hence varies the calibrated model parameters. This results in an increase in the variance between the hydrological realizations compared to the uncalibrated models that uses the same parameter values in all 20 models. Furthermore, borehole based hydrological models in general show more variance between simulations than the AEM based models; however, the combined total uncertainty, bias plus variance, is not necessarily higher.

  4. An application of a large scale conceptual hydrological model over the Elbe region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Lobmeyr

    1999-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the ability of the VIC-2L model coupled to a routing model to reproduce streamflow in the catchment of the lower Elbe River, Germany. The VIC-2L model, a hydrologically-based land surface scheme (LSS which has been tested extensively in the Project for Intercomparison of Land-surface Parameterization Schemes (PILPS, is put up on the rotated grid of 1/6 degree of the atmospheric regional scale model (REMO used in the Baltic Sea Experiment (BALTEX. For a 10 year period, the VIC-2L model is forced in daily time steps with measured daily means of precipitation, air temperature, pressure, wind speed, air humidity and daily sunshine duration. VIC-2L model output of surface runoff and baseflow is used as input for the routing model, which transforms modelled runoff into streamflow, which is compared to measured streamflow at selected gauge stations. The water balance of the basin is investigated and the model results on daily, monthly and annual time scales are discussed. Discrepancies appear in time periods where snow and ice processes are important. Extreme flood events are analyzed in more dital. The influence of calibration with respect to runoff is examined.

  5. Applicability of Doppler weather radar based rainfall data for runoff ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Radar-based hydrological studies in various countries have proven that computation of runoff using radar rainfall data could outperform rain gauge network measurements. There are no reported studies on their utilization for hydrological modelling and/or flood-related studies in Indian river basins. A comparison study ...

  6. Storage cascade vs. MODFLOW for the modelling of groundwater flow in the context of the calibration of a hydrological model in the Ammer catchment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rojanschi, V.; Wolf, J.; Barthel, R.

    2006-09-01

    Hydrological models are the decisive tools to evaluate the effect of global change upon the water cycle. But the applied hydrological models have to be a trade-off between their degree of complexity and manageable structures and data requirements. This paper compares the advantages and disadvantages of integrating a spatially-distributed process-based groundwater flow model in the context of the calibration of a catchment runoff concentration model. The multi-objective optimisation and the GLUE method are used to analyse the performance and the parameter identifiability of both model structures.

  7. Stochastic runoff connectivity (SRC) equations: integration with erosion models for water quality prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheridan, G.; Jones, O. D.; Smith, H.; Cawson, J.; Lane, P. J.

    2009-04-01

    In a companion paper at this conference a single-event steady-state rainfall-runoff model (including runoff-runon phenomena) is derived that quantifies the effect of the random spatial arrangement of rainfall and soil properties on i) infiltration-excess runoff delivery at a downslope boundary, and ii) the distribution of the "connected length" (the upslope length with a continuous runoff pathway adjacent to the stream boundary). The accumulation and loss of runoff down a slope is represented as a first-in first-out (FIFO) GI/G/1 queuing system. Runoff rate at a downslope boundary is analogous to the waiting time in the queue in this representation. The distribution of connected length can be represented analytically as a FIFO M/M/1 queuing system, and the mean and variance is derived for this property. Together these distributions characterise the degree of connectivity of the overland flow pathway (and by extension its associated pollutant load) for a given set of rainfall and soil conditions. In this poster, the stochastic runoff connectivity (SRC) model is developed further. We show how the probabilistic SRC model outputs i) and ii) above can be integrated with physically based hillslope scale surface erosion models to predict the probability distribution of constituent (sediment, phosphorous, etc) delivery to the stream boundary. The performance of the model is compared to 2 years of multi-length erosion plot data, and 3 years of continuous small catchment export data from SE Australian forests.

  8. Improving statistical forecasts of seasonal streamflows using hydrological model output

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. E. Robertson

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Statistical methods traditionally applied for seasonal streamflow forecasting use predictors that represent the initial catchment condition and future climate influences on future streamflows. Observations of antecedent streamflows or rainfall commonly used to represent the initial catchment conditions are surrogates for the true source of predictability and can potentially have limitations. This study investigates a hybrid seasonal forecasting system that uses the simulations from a dynamic hydrological model as a predictor to represent the initial catchment condition in a statistical seasonal forecasting method. We compare the skill and reliability of forecasts made using the hybrid forecasting approach to those made using the existing operational practice of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology for 21 catchments in eastern Australia. We investigate the reasons for differences. In general, the hybrid forecasting system produces forecasts that are more skilful than the existing operational practice and as reliable. The greatest increases in forecast skill tend to be (1 when the catchment is wetting up but antecedent streamflows have not responded to antecedent rainfall, (2 when the catchment is drying and the dominant source of antecedent streamflow is in transition between surface runoff and base flow, and (3 when the initial catchment condition is near saturation intermittently throughout the historical record.

  9. Improving statistical forecasts of seasonal streamflows using hydrological model output

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robertson, D. E.; Pokhrel, P.; Wang, Q. J.

    2013-02-01

    Statistical methods traditionally applied for seasonal streamflow forecasting use predictors that represent the initial catchment condition and future climate influences on future streamflows. Observations of antecedent streamflows or rainfall commonly used to represent the initial catchment conditions are surrogates for the true source of predictability and can potentially have limitations. This study investigates a hybrid seasonal forecasting system that uses the simulations from a dynamic hydrological model as a predictor to represent the initial catchment condition in a statistical seasonal forecasting method. We compare the skill and reliability of forecasts made using the hybrid forecasting approach to those made using the existing operational practice of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology for 21 catchments in eastern Australia. We investigate the reasons for differences. In general, the hybrid forecasting system produces forecasts that are more skilful than the existing operational practice and as reliable. The greatest increases in forecast skill tend to be (1) when the catchment is wetting up but antecedent streamflows have not responded to antecedent rainfall, (2) when the catchment is drying and the dominant source of antecedent streamflow is in transition between surface runoff and base flow, and (3) when the initial catchment condition is near saturation intermittently throughout the historical record.

  10. Modeling urban storm rainfall runoff from diverse underlying surfaces and application for control design in Beijing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ouyang, Wei; Guo, Bobo; Hao, Fanghua; Huang, Haobo; Li, Junqi; Gong, Yongwei

    2012-12-30

    Managing storm rainfall runoff is paramount in semi-arid regions with urban development. In Beijing, pollution prevention in urban storm runoff and storm water utilization has been identified as the primary strategy for urban water management. In this paper, we sampled runoff during storm rainfall events and analyzed the concentration of chemical oxygen demand (COD), total suspended solids (TSS) and total phosphorus (TP) in the runoff. Furthermore, the first flush effect of storm rainfall from diverse underlying surfaces was also analyzed. With the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM), the different impervious rates of underlying surfaces during the storm runoff process were expressed. The removal rates of three typical pollutants and their interactions with precipitation and underlying surfaces were identified. From these rates, the scenarios regarding the urban storm runoff pollution loading from different designs of underlying previous rates were assessed with the SWMM. First flush effect analysis showed that the first 20% of the storm runoff should be discarded, which can help in utilizing the storm water resource. The results of this study suggest that the SWMM can express in detail the storm water pollution patterns from diverse underlying surfaces in Beijing, which significantly affected water quality. The scenario analysis demonstrated that impervious rate adjustment has the potential to reduce runoff peak and decrease pollution loading. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. mRM - multiscale Routing Model for Land Surface and Hydrologic Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cuntz, M.; Thober, S.; Mai, J.; Samaniego, L. E.; Gochis, D. J.; Kumar, R.

    2015-12-01

    Routing streamflow through a river network is a basic step within any distributed hydrologic model. It integrates the generated runoff and allows comparison with observed discharge at the outlet of a catchment. The Muskingum routing is a textbook river routing scheme that has been implemented in Earth System Models (e.g., WRF-HYDRO), stand-alone routing schemes (e.g., RAPID), and hydrologic models (e.g., the mesoscale Hydrologic Model). Most implementations suffer from a high computational demand because the spatial routing resolution is fixed to that of the elevation model irrespective of the hydrologic modeling resolution. This is because the model parameters are scale-dependent and cannot be used at other resolutions without re-estimation. Here, we present the multiscale Routing Model (mRM) that allows for a flexible choice of the routing resolution. mRM exploits the Multiscale Parameter Regionalization (MPR) included in the open-source mesoscale Hydrologic Model (mHM, www.ufz.de/mhm) that relates model parameters to physiographic properties and allows to estimate scale-independent model parameters. mRM is currently coupled to mHM and is presented here as stand-alone Free and Open Source Software (FOSS). The mRM source code is highly modular and provides a subroutine for internal re-use in any land surface scheme. mRM is coupled in this work to the state-of-the-art land surface model Noah-MP. Simulation results using mRM are compared with those available in WRF-HYDRO for the Red River during the period 1990-2000. mRM allows to increase the routing resolution from 100m to more than 10km without deteriorating the model performance. Therefore, it speeds up model calculation by reducing the contribution of routing to total runtime from over 80% to less than 5% in the case of WRF-HYDRO. mRM thus makes discharge data available to land surface modeling with only little extra calculations.

  12. Performance Assessment of Hydrological Models Considering Acceptable Forecast Error Threshold

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qianjin Dong

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available It is essential to consider the acceptable threshold in the assessment of a hydrological model because of the scarcity of research in the hydrology community and errors do not necessarily cause risk. Two forecast errors, including rainfall forecast error and peak flood forecast error, have been studied based on the reliability theory. The first order second moment (FOSM and bound methods are used to identify the reliability. Through the case study of the Dahuofang (DHF Reservoir, it is shown that the correlation between these two errors has great influence on the reliability index of hydrological model. In particular, the reliability index of the DHF hydrological model decreases with the increasing correlation. Based on the reliability theory, the proposed performance evaluation framework incorporating the acceptable forecast error threshold and correlation among the multiple errors can be used to evaluate the performance of a hydrological model and to quantify the uncertainties of a hydrological model output.

  13. A dam-reservoir module for a semi-distributed hydrological model

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Lavenne, Alban; Thirel, Guillaume; Andréassian, Vazken; Perrin, Charles; Ramos, Maria-Helena

    2017-04-01

    Developing modeling tools that help to assess the spatial distribution of water resources is a key issue to achieve better solutions for the optimal management of water availability among users in a river basin. Streamflow dynamics depends on (i) the spatial variability of rainfall, (ii) the heterogeneity of catchment behavior and response, and (iii) local human regulations (e.g., reservoirs) that store and control surface water. These aspects can be successfully handled by distributed or semi-distributed hydrological models. In this study, we develop a dam-reservoir module within a semi-distributed rainfall-runoff model (de Lavenne et al. 2016). The model runs at the daily time step, and has five parameters for each sub-catchment as well as a streamflow velocity parameter for flow routing. Its structure is based on two stores, one for runoff production and one for routing. The calibration of the model is performed from upstream to downstream sub-catchments, which efficiently uses spatially-distributed streamflow measurements. In a previous study, Payan et al. (2008) described a strategy to implement a dam module within a lumped rainfall-runoff model. Here we propose to adapt this strategy to a semi-distributed hydrological modelling framework. In this way, the specific location of existing reservoirs inside a river basin is explicitly accounted for. Our goal is to develop a tool that can provide answers to the different issues involved in spatial water management in human-influenced contexts and at large modelling scales. The approach is tested for the Seine basin in France. Results are shown for model performance with and without the dam module. Also, a comparison with the lumped GR5J model highlights the improvements obtained in model performance by considering human influences more explicitly, and by facilitating parameter identifiability. This work opens up new perspectives for streamflow naturalization analyses and scenario-based spatial assessment of water

  14. Reduction of uncertainty of hydrological modelling using different precipitation inputs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pluntke, T.; Pavlik, D.; Bernhofer, C.

    2012-04-01

    models was evaluated with the Nash-Sutcliff-Efficiency coefficient (NSE) and the R2 between observed and modelled runoff. The model Stations performed better (R2/NSE: 0.66/0.61) than CCLM and Regionalized (0.54/0.54 and 0.57/0.53). Uncertainty of the hydrologic modelling (POC and d-factor) could not be reduced applying the alternative models. A promising method to improve the model performance and reduce the uncertainty is model averaging. Two model averaging methods were tested: arithmetic mean of the ensemble and a weighted mean (depending on NSE). The results show that the model performance could be improved (R2/NSE: 0.67/0.67) and the uncertainty reduced. Differences between the applied model averaging methods were marginal. Although not all observations could be reproduced, neither by the single models nor the ensemble averages, it was illustrated that combining different precipitation inputs improved the hydrologic predictions. Further calibration runs as well as the application of Bayesian Model Averaging are envisaged as next steps. Reference: Abbaspour, K. C., Johnson, C., & van Genuchten, M. T. (2004). Estimating uncertain flow and transport parameters using a sequential uncertainty fitting procedure. Vadose Zone Journal, (3), 1340-1352.

  15. Statistical procedures for evaluating daily and monthly hydrologic model predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coffey, M.E.; Workman, S.R.; Taraba, J.L.; Fogle, A.W.

    2004-01-01

    The overall study objective was to evaluate the applicability of different qualitative and quantitative methods for comparing daily and monthly SWAT computer model hydrologic streamflow predictions to observed data, and to recommend statistical methods for use in future model evaluations. Statistical methods were tested using daily streamflows and monthly equivalent runoff depths. The statistical techniques included linear regression, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, nonparametric tests, t-test, objective functions, autocorrelation, and cross-correlation. None of the methods specifically applied to the non-normal distribution and dependence between data points for the daily predicted and observed data. Of the tested methods, median objective functions, sign test, autocorrelation, and cross-correlation were most applicable for the daily data. The robust coefficient of determination (CD*) and robust modeling efficiency (EF*) objective functions were the preferred methods for daily model results due to the ease of comparing these values with a fixed ideal reference value of one. Predicted and observed monthly totals were more normally distributed, and there was less dependence between individual monthly totals than was observed for the corresponding predicted and observed daily values. More statistical methods were available for comparing SWAT model-predicted and observed monthly totals. The 1995 monthly SWAT model predictions and observed data had a regression Rr2 of 0.70, a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.41, and the t-test failed to reject the equal data means hypothesis. The Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient and the R r2 coefficient were the preferred methods for monthly results due to the ability to compare these coefficients to a set ideal value of one.

  16. A comparative study of artificial neural networks and neuro-fuzzy in continuous modeling of the daily and hourly behaviour of runoff

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aqil, Muhammad; Kita, Ichiro; Yano, Akira; Nishiyama, Soichi

    2007-04-01

    SummaryModeling of rainfall-runoff dynamics is one of the most studied topics in hydrology due to its essential application to water resources management. Recently, artificial intelligence has gained much popularity for calibrating the nonlinear relationships inherent in the rainfall-runoff process. In this study, the advantages of artificial neural networks and neuro-fuzzy system in continuous modeling of the daily and hourly behaviour of runoff were examined. Three different adaptive techniques were constructed and examined namely, Levenberg-Marquardt feed forward neural network, Bayesian regularization feed forward neural network, and neuro-fuzzy. In addition, the effects of data transformation on model performance were also investigated. This was done by examining the performance of the three network architectures and training algorithms using both raw and transformed data. Through inspection of the results it was found that although the model built on transformed data outperforms the model built on raw data, no significant differences were found between the forecast accuracies of the three examined models. A detailed comparison of the overall performance indicated that the neuro-fuzzy model performed better than both the Levenberg-Marquardt-FFNN and the Bayesian regularization-FFNN. In order to enable users to process the data easily, a graphic user interface (GUI) was developed. This program allows users to process the rainfall-runoff data, to train/test the model using various input options and to visualize results.

  17. Modeling the Hydrologic Response to Changes in Groundcover Conditions Caused by Fire Disturbances

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kikinzon, E.; Atchley, A. L.; Coon, E.; Middleton, R. S.

    2016-12-01

    Climate change and fire suppression increase wildfire activity, which alters ecosystem functions and can significantly impact hydrological response. Both wildfire and prescribed burns reduce groundcover, affect top layers of subsurface, and change the structure of overland flow pathways. To understand respective effects on surface and subsurface hydrology, it is imperative to accurately represent surface-subsurface interface pre and post-fire, and to model physical processes in groundcover components. We show mechanistic models used to describe physics in two key types of groundcover, litter and duff, in Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS). Litter is considered to be a part of vegetative canopy covering the surface. It has associated water storage capacity, which allows simulating interception and drainage, and its thickness is used to evaluate surface roughness with potential effect of slowing overland flow compared to bare soil. Duff on the other hand is incorporated into the subsurface, thus requiring meshing and discretization capability to support complex geometries including pinchouts, which is necessary both for achieving desired mesh resolution and portraying bare soil patches without adversely affecting the time scale. As part of the subsurface, duff has its own hydrologic and water retention properties used to resolve infiltration and saturation limited runoff generation, run on, and infiltration processes. This enables the use of ATS for fine scale modeling of integrated hydrology with adequate representation of groundcover influence. To isolate the impact of changing groundcover, we consider a simple hill slope and study the hydrological response to varying amount and geometries of groundcover. To cover landscape characteristics produced by a wide variety of fire conditions, from high intensity to low intensity fire impacts, we simulate hydrologic response to precipitation events over a number of typical geometries and with fine control over amounts of

  18. Hydrological Modeling in Northern Tunisia with Regional Climate Model Outputs: Performance Evaluation and Bias-Correction in Present Climate Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Asma Foughali

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available This work aims to evaluate the performance of a hydrological balance model in a watershed located in northern Tunisia (wadi Sejnane, 378 km2 in present climate conditions using input variables provided by four regional climate models. A modified version (MBBH of the lumped and single layer surface model BBH (Bucket with Bottom Hole model, in which pedo-transfer parameters estimated using watershed physiographic characteristics are introduced is adopted to simulate the water balance components. Only two parameters representing respectively the water retention capacity of the soil and the vegetation resistance to evapotranspiration are calibrated using rainfall-runoff data. The evaluation criterions for the MBBH model calibration are: relative bias, mean square error and the ratio of mean actual evapotranspiration to mean potential evapotranspiration. Daily air temperature, rainfall and runoff observations are available from 1960 to 1984. The period 1960–1971 is selected for calibration while the period 1972–1984 is chosen for validation. Air temperature and precipitation series are provided by four regional climate models (DMI, ARP, SMH and ICT from the European program ENSEMBLES, forced by two global climate models (GCM: ECHAM and ARPEGE. The regional climate model outputs (precipitation and air temperature are compared to the observations in terms of statistical distribution. The analysis was performed at the seasonal scale for precipitation. We found out that RCM precipitation must be corrected before being introduced as MBBH inputs. Thus, a non-parametric quantile-quantile bias correction method together with a dry day correction is employed. Finally, simulated runoff generated using corrected precipitation from the regional climate model SMH is found the most acceptable by comparison with runoff simulated using observed precipitation data, to reproduce the temporal variability of mean monthly runoff. The SMH model is the most accurate to

  19. Impact of land management on hydrological functioning in cultivated landscapes: a coupled model of functional assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paré, Nakié; Biarnès, Anne; Barbier, Jean-Marc; Voltz, Marc

    2010-05-01

    In cultivated landscapes, hydrological functioning is highly influenced by anthropic drivers. Indeed, spatio-temporal patterns in land management affect processes such as run-off or pollutant flow. Reciprocally, at the scale of a cropping season, hydrological functioning of land influences farmers' actions on crops. Consequently, the assessment of the hydrologic impacts of land management needs recognition of the global functioning of the system which requires a close coupling between the modelling of land management actions and hydrological processes. Most of hydrological models take into account a spatial representation of the landscape mosaic created by land management. However the resolution used for the temporal evolution of this pattern is coarser than the one required by hydrological model which simulate processes over short time steps. Consequently, there is a need for more accurate temporal representation of land management which means an analysis of the crop management systems and the integration of bio-physical feedback mechanisms on management decisions. We propose an approach for assessing the hydrological impact of crop management system in the specific case of pollutant loading in a perennial crop area, based on the coupling of a distributed hydrological model with a farmer's decision model. This latter model represents land management with decision rules applied by farmers to drive their collection of plots during the whole cropping cycle. It includes agronomic rules based on indicators of the state of the bio-physical system at plot levels as well as work organisation rules at farm level. Different types of crop management system induced by the diversity of farmers are thus represented by different rules set which can be spatially distributed. The spatial pattern in crop management represented by the decision model determines the hydrological functioning of the landscape. A feedback exists since the hydrological processes like the spatio

  20. Evaluation of Synthetic Outlet Runoff Assessment Models 1ARASH ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Michael Horsfall

    locates in Mazandaran province of Iran. The runoff hydrographs computed by .... the time to UH peak. The SCS method suggests below relation: ... in the US. More importantly, he provided relationships for estimating the UH parameters from watershed characteristics. The program includes an implementation of the Snyder ...

  1. Nitrogen Risk Assessment Model for Scotland: II. Hydrological transport and model testing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. M. Dunn

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available The amount and concentration of N in catchment runoff is strongly controlled by a number of hydrological influences, such as leaching rates and the rate of transport of N from the land to surface water bodies. This paper describes how the principal hydrological controls at a catchment scale have been represented within the Nitrogen Risk Assessment Model for Scotland (NIRAMS; it demonstrates their influence through application of the model to eight Scottish catchments, contrasting in terms of their land use, climate and topography. Calculation of N leaching rates, described in the preceding paper (Dunn et al., 2004, is based on soil water content determined by application of a weekly water balance model. This model uses national scale datasets and has been developed and applied to the whole of Scotland using five years of historical meteorological data. A catchment scale transport model, constructed from a 50m digital elevation model, routes flows of N through the sub-surface and groundwater to the stream system. The results of the simulations carried out for eight different catchments demonstrate that the NIRAMS model is capable of predicting time-series of weekly stream flows and N concentrations, to an acceptable degree of accuracy. The model provides an appropriate framework for risk assessment applications requiring predictions in ungauged catchments and at a national scale. Analysis of the model behaviour shows that streamwater N concentrations are controlled both by the rate of supply of N from leaching as well as the rate of transport of N from the land to the water. Keywords: nitrogen, diffuse pollution, hydrology, model, transport, catchment

  2. Identification and uncertainty analysis of a hydrological water quality model with varying input data information content

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Sanyuan; Jomaa, Seifeddine; Rode, Michael

    2013-04-01

    The rivers in central Germany are moderately to heavily polluted by nutrient inputs from point and diffuse sources. The objectives of this study are (i) to assess the new HYPE model (HYdrological Predictions for the Environment) for simulating runoff and inorganic nitrogen (IN) emissions at nested and spatially heterogeneous mesoscale catchments; (ii) to investigate the temporal and spatial variations of IN leaching and (iii) to investigate effects of calibration data on hydrological parameter identification. A multi-site and multi-objective calibration approach with help of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) was employed for parameter optimisation and uncertainty analysis. Results showed that parameters related to evapotranspiration were most sensitive in runoff simulation, while the nitrogen processes were mainly controlled by plant uptake and denitrification. Runoff was reproduced quite well for both calibration (1994-1999) and validation (1999-2004) periods (including the extreme dry year of 2003) at all three gauge stations, with a lowest Nash-Sutcliffe (NSE) of 0.86. The dynamics of soil moisture during extreme climatological events were well captured. Corresponding to spatial variability of hydrological regimes and land use, IN concentrations showed an increase in magnitude and a decrease in dynamics from upstream to downstream, reflecting the combined effects of increasing nutrient inputs and decreasing IN in-stream retention. The IN load was simulated well at monthly time intervals, with a lowest NSE of 0.69. Results revealed high IN emissions in winter and low values in summer; the area-weighted IN emission load decreased along the stream channel. Therefore, it is concluded that the IN emission is mainly controlled by runoff in this study catchment. From the preliminary result, we found that the 95% parameter confidence intervals of hydrological parameters decreased when IN concentration observations were included in hydrological parameter calibration. In

  3. 1D Runoff-runon stochastic model in the light of queueing theory : heterogeneity and connectivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harel, M.-A.; Mouche, E.; Ledoux, E.

    2012-04-01

    identical to the waiting time equation in a single server queue. Thanks to this theory, it is possible to accurately describe some outputs of our numerical model, notably the runoff repartition over the slope for uncorrelated exponential infiltrability distributions. Alternative formulations for the connectivity function of Allard (which cannot be predicted theoretically to our knowledge) are discussed with regard to predictability, efficiency in computation and qualification of the "near-connectedness" state of the system.

  4. Spatial sensitivity analysis of snow cover data in a distributed rainfall-runoff model

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Berezowski, T; Nossent, J; Chormański, J; Batelaan, O

    2015-01-01

    As the availability of spatially distributed data sets for distributed rainfall-runoff modelling is strongly increasing, more attention should be paid to the influence of the quality of the data on the calibration...

  5. How uncertain is model-based prediction of copper loads in stormwater runoff?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lindblom, Erik Ulfson; Ahlman, S.; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen

    2007-01-01

    (runoff volumes and pollutant masses). We use the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) methodology and generate posterior parameter distributions that result in model outputs encompassing a significant number of the highly variable measurements. Given the applied pollution accumulation...

  6. Improvements of Physically-Based Hydrological Modelling using the ACRU Agro-Hydrological Modelling System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonifacio, C. M. T.; Kienzle, S. W.; Xu, W.; Zhang, J.

    2014-12-01

    The uncertainty of future water availability due to climate change in the Upper Oldman River Basin in Alberta, Canada, and downstream users is considered in this study. A changing climate can significantly perturb hydrological response within a region, thereby affecting the available water resources within southern Alberta. The ACRU agro-hydrological modelling system is applied to simulate historical (1950-2010) and future (2041-2070) streamflows and volumes of a major irrigation reservoir. Like many highly complex, process-based distributed models, major limitations include the data availability and data quality at finer spatial resolutions. With the use of a scripting language, certain limitations can be greatly reduced. Three phases of the project will be emphasized. First, the assimilation of solar radiation, relative humidity, sunshine hours and wind speed daily data into the Canadian 10KM daily climate data that contains daily precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature data for the period 1950-2010, so as to enable potential evapotranspiration calculations using the Penman-Monteith equation. Second, the downscaling of five regional climate model (RCM) data to match the 10KM spatial resolution was undertaken. Third, a total of 1722 hydrological response units (HRUs) were delineated within the 4403 km2 large upper Oldman River Basin. In all phases of model input data parameterization and calibration, the automation of known external procedures greatly decreased erroneous model inputs and increased the efficiency of validating the quality of input data to be used within the ACRU model.

  7. Runoff response for a peri-urban watershed in the Atlantic Forest Biome, southern Brazil, using the Kineros2 model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beling, F. A.; Dias de Paiva, J.; Cauduro Dias de Paiva, E. M.; Heatwole, C.

    2011-12-01

    Simulating the hydrologic response of a watershed for different scenarios is an important tool for assessing the rational use of the land and natural resources, especially in environments where urbanization is not ever an organized procedure. This study used the Kineros2 event oriented hydrological model to simulate the runoff response of a 4.9 km2 peri-urban basin located in the Atlantic Forest biome in Southern Brazil, with 47% of the area being impermeable. The goal of the simulations was to estimate the characteristic parameters of the soils and land cover of the watershed to then enable the prediction of basin response for different land uses. To acheive this objective, the responses of ten measured rainfall-runoff events were used to calibrate five parameters of the model. The PEST (Model-Independent Parameter Estimation and Uncertainty Analysis) package was used for automatic calibration of the model parameters. The quality of results is shown in Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency index values varying from 0.64 up to 0.98, with an average value of 0.88. The average absolute error in the simulated peak flow was 4.5% and 20.7% in the simulated runoff volume. A cross-validation using the same events used in the calibration and using average values of the calibrated parameters. gave Nash-Sutcliffe index values varying from 0.26 up to 0.92, with an average value of 0.73. The average absolute error in the simulated peak flow and runoff volume were 22.7% and 25.6%, respectively. We used two validated events to simulate distinct scenarios, being representative of a wet and of dry antecedent moisture conditions. For a scenario of a totally forested land cover, the simulated peak flow and runoff volume for a dry condition changed -53% and -46% respectively, and for a wet condition, -63% and -41% respectively, relatively to the present land use. For a complete pasture land use, the simulated peak flow and runoff volume for a dry condition changed -31% and -27% respectively and

  8. iTree-Hydro: Snow hydrology update for the urban forest hydrology model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang Yang; Theodore A. Endreny; David J. Nowak

    2011-01-01

    This article presents snow hydrology updates made to iTree-Hydro, previously called the Urban Forest Effects—Hydrology model. iTree-Hydro Version 1 was a warm climate model developed by the USDA Forest Service to provide a process-based planning tool with robust water quantity and quality predictions given data limitations common to most urban areas. Cold climate...

  9. Global Climate Model Simulated Hydrologic Droughts and Floods in the Nelson-Churchill Watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vieira, M. J. F.; Stadnyk, T. A.; Koenig, K. A.

    2014-12-01

    There is uncertainty surrounding the duration, magnitude and frequency of historical hydroclimatic extremes such as hydrologic droughts and floods prior to the observed record. In regions where paleoclimatic studies are less reliable, Global Climate Models (GCMs) can provide useful information about past hydroclimatic conditions. This study evaluates the use of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) GCMs to enhance the understanding of historical droughts and floods across the Canadian Prairie region in the Nelson-Churchill Watershed (NCW). The NCW is approximately 1.4 million km2 in size and drains into Hudson Bay in Northern Manitoba, Canada. One hundred years of observed hydrologic records show extended dry and wet periods in this region; however paleoclimatic studies suggest that longer, more severe droughts have occurred in the past. In Manitoba, where hydropower is the primary source of electricity, droughts are of particular interest as they are important for future resource planning. Twenty-three GCMs with daily runoff are evaluated using 16 metrics for skill in reproducing historic annual runoff patterns. A common 56-year historic period of 1950-2005 is used for this evaluation to capture wet and dry periods. GCM runoff is then routed at a grid resolution of 0.25° using the WATFLOOD hydrological model storage-routing algorithm to develop streamflow scenarios. Reservoir operation is naturalized and a consistent temperature scenario is used to determine ice-on and ice-off conditions. These streamflow simulations are compared with the historic record to remove bias using quantile mapping of empirical distribution functions. GCM runoff data from pre-industrial and future projection experiments are also bias corrected to obtain extended streamflow simulations. GCM streamflow simulations of more than 650 years include a stationary (pre-industrial) period and future periods forced by radiative forcing scenarios. Quantile mapping adjusts for magnitude

  10. The Sensitivity Analysis of Parameters of Urban Runoff Models due to Variations of Basin Characteristics (II) : Model Calibration and Application

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seo, Kyu Woo [Dongeui University, Pusan (Korea); Heo, Jun Haeng [Yonsei University, Seoul (Korea)

    1998-06-30

    In this study, ILLUDAS and SWMM were applied for Dongsucheon basin, Inchon and Test basin, Chongju. The main parameters(II, IA, IS, SI, SR, SS) which are included in those of each model depending on runoff results were determined, and sensitivity ratios were estimated in order to evaluate and compare the characteristics of each model. Total runoff ratio for almost parameters turned out to have a linear relation to the rainfall durations and the scale of basin area but have nothing to do with rainfall distributions. Sensitivity ratios turned out to have a linear relation for the infiltration and soil parameters of ILLUDAS as well as all parameters of SWMM. Runoff sensitivity ratios for almost parameters were smaller than 1.0 because the impacts of total runoff were bigger than those of peak runoff. And runoff sensitivity ratio was equal to 1.0 for the roughness coefficient of SWMM. Total runoff ratio, peak runoff ratio and runoff sensitivity ratio for the selected parameters of those models were presented as the tables and figures according to the scale of basin area, rainfall durations such as 60, 120, and 180 minutes and Huff's fourth quartiles rainfall distributions. (author). 16 refs., 8 tabs., 20 figs.

  11. The Sensitivity Analysis of Parameters of Urban Runoff Models due to Variations of Basin Characteristics(I) : Development of Sensitivity Analysis Method

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seo, Kyu Woo [Dongeui University, Pusan (Korea); Cho, Won Cheol [Yonsei University, Seoul (Korea)

    1998-06-30

    In this study, the new dimensionless values were defined and proposed to determine the parameters of urban runoff models based on the relative sensitivity analysis. Also, the sensitivity characteristics of each parameter were investigated. In order to analyze the parameter sensitivities of each model, total runoff ratio, peak runoff ratio, runoff sensitivity ratio, sensitivity ratio of total runoff, and sensitivity ratio of peak runoff were defined. Total runoff ratio(Q{sub TR}) = Total runoff of corresponding step / Maximum total runoff. Peak runoff ratio(Q{sub PR}) = Peak runoff corresponding step / Maximum peak runoff. Runoff sensitivity ratio(Q{sub SR}) = Q{sub TR} / Q{sub PR}. And for estimation of sensitivity ratios based on the scale of basin area, rainfall distributions and rainfall durations in ILLUDAS and SWMM, the reasonable ranges of parameters were proposed. (author). 21 refs., 2 tabs., 2 figs.

  12. Meltwater flux and runoff modeling in the abalation area of jakobshavn Isbrae, West Greenland

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mernild, Sebastian Haugard [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Chylek, Petr [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Liston, Glen [COLORADO STATE UNIV.; Steffen, Konrad [UNIV OF COLORADO

    2009-01-01

    The temporal variability in surface snow and glacier melt flux and runoff were investigated for the ablation area of lakobshavn Isbrae, West Greenland. High-resolution meteorological observations both on and outside the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) were used as model input. Realistic descriptions of snow accumulation, snow and glacier-ice melt, and runoff are essential to understand trends in ice sheet surface properties and processes. SnowModel, a physically based, spatially distributed meteorological and snow-evolution modeling system was used to simulate the temporal variability of lakobshavn Isbrre accumulation and ablation processes for 2000/01-2006/07. Winter snow-depth observations and MODIS satellite-derived summer melt observations were used for model validation of accumulation and ablation. Simulations agreed well with observed values. Simulated annual surface melt varied from as low as 3.83 x 10{sup 9} m{sup 3} (2001/02) to as high as 8.64 x 10{sup 9} m{sup 3} (2004/05). Modeled surface melt occurred at elevations reaching 1,870 m a.s.l. for 2004/05, while the equilibrium line altitude (ELA) fluctuated from 990 to 1,210 m a.s.l. during the simulation period. The SnowModel meltwater retention and refreezing routines considerably reduce the amount of meltwater available as ice sheet runoff; without these routines the lakobshavn surface runoff would be overestimated by an average of 80%. From September/October through May/June no runoff events were simulated. The modeled interannual runoff variability varied from 1.81 x 10{sup 9} m{sup 3} (2001/02) to 5.21 x 10{sup 9} m{sup 3} (2004/05), yielding a cumulative runoff at the Jakobshavn glacier terminus of {approx}2.25 m w.eq. to {approx}4.5 m w.eq., respectively. The average modeled lakobshavn runoff of {approx}3.4 km{sup 3} y{sup -1} was merged with previous estimates of Jakobshavn ice discharge to quantify the freshwater flux to Illulissat Icefiord. For both runoff and ice discharge the average trends are

  13. Climate change evolution of the hydrological balance of the Mediterranean, Black and Caspian Seas: impact of climate model resolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elguindi, Nellie; Somot, S.; Déqué, M.; Ludwig, W.

    2011-01-01

    In this study we have evaluated the ability of the CNRM-ARPEGE CLIMATE V4 general circulation model (GCM) to estimate the present-day hydrological budget components [precipitation minus evaporation over the sea ( P - E) and fresh water runoff ( R)] over the Mediterranean, Black and Caspian sea basins. Three simulations were performed which were exactly identical except for horizontal resolution, allowing for a unique opportunity to isolate and study the effects of resolution on simulating the hydrological components. Model calculated values of runoff and P - E were compared to a variety of data sources and show that the model's performance improves significantly with increased resolution, especially in regions with mountainous terrain. Corresponding future climate simulations (following the IPCC A2 scenario) were also performed and indicate that while resolution does not seem to have a significant effect on the qualitative impacts of future climate change on the hydrologic balance, quantitatively the results vary significantly among the models. These results suggests that high resolution global models, or downscaling models such as RCMs, are necessary in order to assess the magnitude of future changes in the hydrological components of these basins.

  14. Improvements to the Community Land Model and their impact on the hydrological cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oleson, K. W.; Niu, G.-Y.; Yang, Z.-L.; Lawrence, D. M.; Thornton, P. E.; Lawrence, P. J.; StöCkli, R.; Dickinson, R. E.; Bonan, G. B.; Levis, S.; Dai, A.; Qian, T.

    2008-03-01

    The Community Land Model version 3 (CLM3) is the land component of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM). CLM3 has energy and water biases resulting from deficiencies in some of its canopy and soil parameterizations related to hydrological processes. Recent research by the community that utilizes CLM3 and the family of CCSM models has indicated several promising approaches to alleviating these biases. This paper describes the implementation of a selected set of these parameterizations and their effects on the simulated hydrological cycle. The modifications consist of surface data sets based on Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer products, new parameterizations for canopy integration, canopy interception, frozen soil, soil water availability, and soil evaporation, a TOPMODEL-based model for surface and subsurface runoff, a groundwater model for determining water table depth, and the introduction of a factor to simulate nitrogen limitation on plant productivity. The results from a set of offline simulations were compared with observed data for runoff, river discharge, soil moisture, and total water storage to assess the performance of the new model (referred to as CLM3.5). CLM3.5 exhibits significant improvements in its partitioning of global evapotranspiration (ET) which result in wetter soils, less plant water stress, increased transpiration and photosynthesis, and an improved annual cycle of total water storage. Phase and amplitude of the runoff annual cycle is generally improved. Dramatic improvements in vegetation biogeography result when CLM3.5 is coupled to a dynamic global vegetation model. Lower than observed soil moisture variability in the rooting zone is noted as a remaining deficiency.

  15. Development of Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint hydrology and habitat model parameters through biophysical remote sensing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, J.

    2010-12-01

    A multidisciplinary team composed of researchers from federal government and academia is linking state-of-the-art within-discipline approaches to more effectively model climate, hydrology, in-stream flow requirements, and aquatic population dynamics in the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint (ACF) river basin. As part of this effort, a multi- spectral, spatial, and temporal resolution remote sensing database is being developed and evaluated by the USGS to better understand and represent the spatial and temporal scales of various land cover changes and cycles in the ACF. The ultimate goal is to account for the affects of land use on hydrology and habitat and link those affects to the health of aquatic populations. Airborne true color and lidar and satellite radar data for subwatersheds of the ACF are being used to calibrate and evaluate Landsat-based maps of small water bodies and vegetation cover for use in stream flow and temperature modeling. Procedures are being developed and applied to archived Landsat data to yield dynamic information on the numbers, sizes, spatial configuration and combined area of coverage of ACF surface water bodies throughout the Thematic Mapper time frame (early-1980s to present). Also the USGS Precipitation Runoff Modeling System has been modified to accommodate these dynamic estimates of total storage capacity over hydrologic response units and is therefore yielding more applicable simulations of streamflow characteristics. This multi-scale characterization of landscape dynamics is helping to evaluate and forecast the importance of human activity to hydrology and aquatic habitat conditions.

  16. Use of Generalised Linear Models to quantify rainfall input uncertainty to hydrological modelling in the Upper Nile

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kigobe, M.; McIntyre, N.; Wheater, H. S.

    2009-04-01

    Interest in the application of climate and hydrological models in the Nile basin has risen in the recent past; however, the first drawback for most efforts has been the estimation of historic precipitation patterns. In this study we have applied stochastic models to infill and extend observed data sets to generate inputs for hydrological modelling. Several stochastic climate models within the Generalised Linear Modelling (GLM) framework have been applied to reproduce spatial and temporal patterns of precipitation in the Kyoga basin. A logistic regression model (describing rainfall occurrence) and a gamma distribution (describing rainfall amounts) are used to model rainfall patterns. The parameters of the models are functions of spatial and temporal covariates, and are fitted to the observed rainfall data using log-likelihood methods. Using the fitted model, multi-site rainfall sequences over the Kyoga basin are generated stochastically as a function of the dominant seasonal, climatic and geographic controls. The rainfall sequences generated are then used to drive a semi distributed hydrological model using the Soil Water and Assessment Tool (SWAT). The sensitivity of runoff to uncertainty associated with missing precipitation records is thus tested. In an application to the Lake Kyoga catchment, the performance of the hydrological model highly depends on the spatial representation of the input precipitation patterns, model parameterisation and the performance of the GLM stochastic models used to generate the input rainfall. The results obtained so far disclose that stochastic models can be developed for several climatic regions within the Kyoga basin; and, given identification of a stochastic rainfall model; input uncertainty due to precipitation can be usefully quantified. The ways forward for rainfall modelling and hydrological simulation in Uganda and the Upper Nile are discussed. Key Words: Precipitation, Generalised Linear Models, Input Uncertainty, Soil Water

  17. Examining runoff generation processes in the Selke catchment in central Germany: Insights from data and semi-distributed numerical model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sumit Sinha

    2016-09-01

    New hydrological insights for the region: We examined the spatio-temporal variation of runoff generating mechanisms on the sub-basin level on seasonal basis. Our analysis reveals that the runoff generation in the Selke catchment is primarily dominated by shallow sub-surface flow and very rarely the contribution from Dunne overland flow exceeds sub-surface flow. Runoff generated by Hortonian mechanism is very infrequent and almost negligible. We also examined the spatio-temporal variation of runoff coefficients on seasonal basis as well as for individual storms. Due to higher precipitation and topographic relief in the upland catchment of Silberhutte, the runoff coefficients were consistently higher and its peak was found in winter months due to lower evapotranspiration.

  18. Application of the Kineros model for predicting the effect of land use on the surface run-off Case study in Brantas sub-watershed, Klojen District, Malang City, East Java Province of Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bisri Mohammad

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available This study intended to illustrate the distribution of surface run-off. The methodology was by using Kineros model (kinetic run-off and erosion model. This model is a part of AGWA program which is as the development of ESRI ArcView SIG software that is as a tool for analysing hydrological phenomena in research about watershed simulating the process of infiltration, run-off depth, and erosion in a watershed of small scale such as ≤100 km2. The procedures are as follow: to analyse the run-off depth in Brantas sub-watershed, Klojen District by using Kineros model based on the land use change due to the rainfall simulation with the return period of 2 years, 5 years, 10 years, and 25 years. Results show that the difference of land use affect the surface run-off or there is the correlation between land use and surface run-off depth. The maximum surface run-off depth in the year 2000 was 134.26 mm; in 2005 it was 139.36 mm; and in 2010 it was 142.76 mm. There was no significant difference between Kineros model and observation in field, the relative error was only 9.09%.

  19. Simulation of daily streamflow for 12 river basins in western Iowa using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christiansen, Daniel E.; Haj, Adel E.; Risley, John C.

    2017-10-24

    The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Iowa Department of Natural Resources, constructed Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System models to estimate daily streamflow for 12 river basins in western Iowa that drain into the Missouri River. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System is a deterministic, distributed-parameter, physical-process-based modeling system developed to evaluate the response of streamflow and general drainage basin hydrology to various combinations of climate and land use. Calibration periods for each basin varied depending on the period of record available for daily mean streamflow measurements at U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations.A geographic information system tool was used to delineate each basin and estimate initial values for model parameters based on basin physical and geographical features. A U.S. Geological Survey automatic calibration tool that uses a shuffled complex evolution algorithm was used for initial calibration, and then manual modifications were made to parameter values to complete the calibration of each basin model. The main objective of the calibration was to match daily discharge values of simulated streamflow to measured daily discharge values. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model was calibrated at 42 sites located in the 12 river basins in western Iowa.The accuracy of the simulated daily streamflow values at the 42 calibration sites varied by river and by site. The models were satisfactory at 36 of the sites based on statistical results. Unsatisfactory performance at the six other sites can be attributed to several factors: (1) low flow, no flow, and flashy flow conditions in headwater subbasins having a small drainage area; (2) poor representation of the groundwater and storage components of flow within a basin; (3) lack of accounting for basin withdrawals and water use; and (4) limited availability and accuracy of meteorological input data. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System

  20. Hydraulic Geometry, GIS and Remote Sensing, Techniques against Rainfall-Runoff Models for Estimating Flood Magnitude in Ephemeral Fluvial Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rafael Garcia-Lorenzo

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper shows the combined use of remotely sensed data and hydraulic geometry methods as an alternative to rainfall-runoff models. Hydraulic geometric data and boolean images of water sheets obtained from satellite images after storm events were integrated in a Geographical Information System. Channel cross-sections were extracted from a high resolution Digital Terrain Model (DTM and superimposed on the image cover to estimate the peak flow using HEC-RAS. The proposed methodology has been tested in ephemeral channels (ramblas on the coastal zone in south-eastern Spain. These fluvial systems constitute an important natural hazard due to their high discharges and sediment loads. In particular, different areas affected by floods during the period 1997 to 2009 were delimited through HEC-GeoRAs from hydraulic geometry data and Landsat images of these floods (Landsat‑TM5 and Landsat-ETM+7. Such an approach has been validated against rainfall-surface runoff models (SCS Dimensionless Unit Hydrograph, SCSD, Témez gamma HU Tγ and the Modified Rational method, MRM comparing their results with flood hydrographs of the Automatic Hydrologic Information System (AHIS in several ephemeral channels in the Murcia Region. The results obtained from the method providing a better fit were used to calculate different hydraulic geometry parameters, especially in residual flood areas.

  1. GIS based generation of dynamic hydrological and land patch simulation models for rural watershed areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Varga

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper introduces a GIS based methodology to generate dynamic process model for the simulation based analysis of a sensitive rural watershed. The Direct Computer Mapping (DCM based solution starts from GIS layers and, via the graph interpretation and graphical edition of the process network, the expert interface is able to integrate the field experts’ knowledge in the computer aided generation of the simulation model. The methodology was applied and tested for the Southern catchment basin of Lake Balaton, Hungary. In the simplified hydrological model the GIS description of nine watercourses, 121 water sections, 57 small lakes and 20 Lake Balaton compartments were mapped through the expert interface to the dynamic databases of the DCM model. The hydrological model involved precipitation, evaporation, transpiration, runoff, infiltration. The COoRdination of INformation on the Environment (CORINE land cover based simplified “land patch” model considered the effect of meteorological and hydrological scenarios on freshwater resources in the land patches, rivers and lakes. The first results show that the applied model generation methodology helps to build complex models, which, after validation can support the analysis of various land use, with the consideration of environmental aspects.

  2. Modelling hydrological processes and dissolved organic carbon dynamics in a rehabilitated Sphagnum-dominated peatland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernard-Jannin, Léonard; Binet, Stéphane; Gogo, Sébastien; Leroy, Fabien; Perdereau, Laurent; Laggoun-Défarge, Fatima

    2017-04-01

    Sphagnum-dominated peatlands represent a global major stock of carbon (C). Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) exports through runoff and leaching could reduce their potential C sink function and impact downstream water quality. DOC production in peatlands is strongly controlled by the hydrology, especially water table depth (WTD). Therefore, disturbances such as drainage can lead to increase DOC exports by lowering the WTD. Hydrological restoration (e.g. rewetting) can be undertaken to restore peatland functioning with an impact on DOC exports. The objective of this study is to assess the impact of drainage and rewetting on hydrological processes and their interactions with DOC dynamics in a Sphagnum dominated peatland. A hydrological model has been applied to a drained peatland (La Guette, France) which experienced a rewetting action on February 2014 and where WTD has been recorded in four piezometers at a 15 min time step since 2009. In addition, DOC concentrations in the peatland have been measured 6 times a year since 2014. The hydrological model is a WTD dependent reservoir model composed by two reservoirs representing the micro and macro porosity of the peatland (Binet et al., 2013). A DOC production module in both reservoirs was implemented based on temperature and WTD. The model was calibrated against WTD and DOC concentrations for each piezometer. The results show that the WTD in the study area is strongly affected by local meteorological conditions that could hide the effect of the rewetting action. The preliminary results evidenced that an additional source of water, identified as groundwater supply originating from the surrounding sandy layer aquifer, is necessary to maintain the water balance, especially during wet years (NS>0.8). Finally, the DOC module was able to describe DOC concentrations measured in the peatland and could be used to assess the impact of rewetting on DOC dynamics at different locations and to identify the factors of control of DOC

  3. Quantifying conceptual hydrological flow paths across heterogeneous conditions using a tailored catchment model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mockler, Eva M.; Bruen, Michael

    2015-04-01

    As hydrology drives the nutrient and sediment processes at catchment scale, the hydrological processes in a model must be adequately represented in order for water quality simulations to be meaningful. Focus is increasingly turning to the internal movement of water within conceptual rainfall runoff models to investigate if the simulated processes contributing to the total flows are realistic. Difficulty arises when defining two or more flow paths that are conceptually distinct in relation to nutrient and sediment signatures, but have similar or overlapping discharge hydrograph responses. When this occurs, methods relating to physical hydrograph separation cannot be expected to distinguish between the different responses. There is a wealth of knowledge and conceptual understanding of hydrological and hydrogeological processes across Ireland. This knowledge has been incorporated into several spatial datasets of catchment characteristics including the Geological Survey of Ireland Groundwater Vulnerability Map and National Recharge Map. A tailored conceptual model for simulating flows in Irish catchments was developed that is linked with catchment characteristics to constrain internal flow paths and guide parameterisation. Simulations for 31 catchments were compared with output from two established models. The additional process information in the new model structure resulted in an improved or equalled performance in most catchment, with an increase in overall average performance criteria. This was attributed to the tailored model structure that more closely reflects the dominant hydrological processes in Irish catchments. The proportion of flow through groundwater or 'quick' flow paths varies considerably depending on catchment settings, with examples of groundwater dominated and 'flashy' catchments included in the study. In contrast to earlier studies, results showed interflow, as opposed to overland flow, as the dominant flow path in Irish catchments. This new

  4. Hydrology team

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ragan, R.

    1982-01-01

    General problems faced by hydrologists when using historical records, real time data, statistical analysis, and system simulation in providing quantitative information on the temporal and spatial distribution of water are related to the limitations of these data. Major problem areas requiring multispectral imaging-based research to improve hydrology models involve: evapotranspiration rates and soil moisture dynamics for large areas; the three dimensional characteristics of bodies of water; flooding in wetlands; snow water equivalents; runoff and sediment yield from ungaged watersheds; storm rainfall; fluorescence and polarization of water and its contained substances; discriminating between sediment and chlorophyll in water; role of barrier island dynamics in coastal zone processes; the relationship between remotely measured surface roughness and hydraulic roughness of land surfaces and stream networks; and modeling the runoff process.

  5. Changes in catchment hydrology in relation to vegetation recovery: a comparative modelling experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lana-Renault, Noemí; Karssenberg, Derek; Latron, Jérôme; Serrano, Mā Pilar; Regüés, David; Bierkens, Marc F. P.

    2010-05-01

    Mediterranean mountains have been largely affected by land abandonment and subsequent vegetation recovery, with a general expansion of shrubs and forests. Such a large scale land-cover change has modified the hydrological behavior of these areas, with significant impact on runoff production. Forecasting the trend of water resources under future re-vegetation scenarios is of paramount importance in Mediterranean basins, where water management relies on runoff generated in these areas. With this purpose, a modelling experiment was designed based on the information collected in two neighbouring research catchments with a different history of land use in the central Spanish Pyrenees. One (2.84 km2) is an abandoned agricultural catchment subjected to plant colonization and at present mainly covered by shrubs. The other (0.92 km2) is a catchment covered by dense natural forest, representative of undisturbed environments. Here we present the results of the analysis of the hydrological differences between the two catchments, and a description of the approach and results of the modelling experiment. In a statistical analysis of the field data, significant differences were observed in the streamflow response of the two catchments. The forested catchment recorded fewer floods per year compared to the old agricultural catchment, and its hydrological response was characterised by a marked seasonality, with autumn and spring as the only high flow periods. Stormflow was generally higher in the old agricultural catchment, especially for low to intermediate size events; only for large events the stormflow in the forested catchment was sometimes greater. Under drier conditions, the relative differences in the stormflow between the two catchments tended to increase whereas under wet conditions they tended to be similar. The forested catchment always reacted more slowly to rainfall, with lower peakflows (generally one order of magnitude lower) and longer recession limbs. The modelling

  6. Study of Parameters And Methods of LL-Ⅳ Distributed Hydrological Model in DMIP2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, L.; Wu, J.; Wang, X.; Yang, C.; Zhao, Y.; Zhou, H.

    2008-05-01

    : The Physics-based distributed hydrological model is considered as an important developing period from the traditional experience-hydrology to the physical hydrology. The Hydrology Laboratory of the NOAA National Weather Service proposes the first and second phase of the Distributed Model Intercomparison Project (DMIP),that it is a great epoch-making work. LL distributed hydrological model has been developed to the fourth generation since it was established in 1997 on the Fengman-I district reservoir area (11000 km2).The LL-I distributed hydrological model was born with the applications of flood control system in the Fengman-I in China. LL-II was developed under the DMIP-I support, it is combined with GIS, RS, GPS, radar rainfall measurement.LL-III was established along with Applications of LL Distributed Model on Water Resources which was supported by the 973-projects of The Ministry of Science and Technology of the People's Republic of China. LL-Ⅳ was developed to face China's water problem. Combined with Blue River and the Baron Fork River basin of DMIP-II, the convection-diffusion equation of non-saturated and saturated seepage was derived from the soil water dynamics and continuous equation. In view of the technical characteristics of the model, the advantage of using convection-diffusion equation to compute confluence overall is longer period of predictable, saving memory space, fast budgeting, clear physical concepts, etc. The determination of parameters of hydrological model is the key, including experience coefficients and parameters of physical parameters. There are methods of experience, inversion, and the optimization to determine the model parameters, and each has advantages and disadvantages. This paper briefly introduces the LL-Ⅳ distribution hydrological model equations, and particularly introduces methods of parameters determination and simulation results on Blue River and Baron Fork River basin for DMIP-II. The soil moisture diffusion

  7. Using artificial neural network approach for modelling rainfall–runoff ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Journal of Earth System Science; Volume 122; Issue 2. Using artificial neural network approach for ... In Taiwan, owing to the nonuniform temporal and spatial distribution of rainfall and high mountains all over the country, hydrologic systems are very complex. Therefore, preventing and controlling flood ...

  8. Towards improved parameterization of a macroscale hydrologic model in a discontinuous permafrost boreal forest ecosystem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Endalamaw, Abraham; Bolton, W. Robert; Young-Robertson, Jessica M.; Morton, Don; Hinzman, Larry; Nijssen, Bart

    2017-09-01

    Modeling hydrological processes in the Alaskan sub-arctic is challenging because of the extreme spatial heterogeneity in soil properties and vegetation communities. Nevertheless, modeling and predicting hydrological processes is critical in this region due to its vulnerability to the effects of climate change. Coarse-spatial-resolution datasets used in land surface modeling pose a new challenge in simulating the spatially distributed and basin-integrated processes since these datasets do not adequately represent the small-scale hydrological, thermal, and ecological heterogeneity. The goal of this study is to improve the prediction capacity of mesoscale to large-scale hydrological models by introducing a small-scale parameterization scheme, which better represents the spatial heterogeneity of soil properties and vegetation cover in the Alaskan sub-arctic. The small-scale parameterization schemes are derived from observations and a sub-grid parameterization method in the two contrasting sub-basins of the Caribou Poker Creek Research Watershed (CPCRW) in Interior Alaska: one nearly permafrost-free (LowP) sub-basin and one permafrost-dominated (HighP) sub-basin. The sub-grid parameterization method used in the small-scale parameterization scheme is derived from the watershed topography. We found that observed soil thermal and hydraulic properties - including the distribution of permafrost and vegetation cover heterogeneity - are better represented in the sub-grid parameterization method than the coarse-resolution datasets. Parameters derived from the coarse-resolution datasets and from the sub-grid parameterization method are implemented into the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) mesoscale hydrological model to simulate runoff, evapotranspiration (ET), and soil moisture in the two sub-basins of the CPCRW. Simulated hydrographs based on the small-scale parameterization capture most of the peak and low flows, with similar accuracy in both sub-basins, compared to

  9. Towards improved parameterization of a macroscale hydrologic model in a discontinuous permafrost boreal forest ecosystem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Endalamaw

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Modeling hydrological processes in the Alaskan sub-arctic is challenging because of the extreme spatial heterogeneity in soil properties and vegetation communities. Nevertheless, modeling and predicting hydrological processes is critical in this region due to its vulnerability to the effects of climate change. Coarse-spatial-resolution datasets used in land surface modeling pose a new challenge in simulating the spatially distributed and basin-integrated processes since these datasets do not adequately represent the small-scale hydrological, thermal, and ecological heterogeneity. The goal of this study is to improve the prediction capacity of mesoscale to large-scale hydrological models by introducing a small-scale parameterization scheme, which better represents the spatial heterogeneity of soil properties and vegetation cover in the Alaskan sub-arctic. The small-scale parameterization schemes are derived from observations and a sub-grid parameterization method in the two contrasting sub-basins of the Caribou Poker Creek Research Watershed (CPCRW in Interior Alaska: one nearly permafrost-free (LowP sub-basin and one permafrost-dominated (HighP sub-basin. The sub-grid parameterization method used in the small-scale parameterization scheme is derived from the watershed topography. We found that observed soil thermal and hydraulic properties – including the distribution of permafrost and vegetation cover heterogeneity – are better represented in the sub-grid parameterization method than the coarse-resolution datasets. Parameters derived from the coarse-resolution datasets and from the sub-grid parameterization method are implemented into the variable infiltration capacity (VIC mesoscale hydrological model to simulate runoff, evapotranspiration (ET, and soil moisture in the two sub-basins of the CPCRW. Simulated hydrographs based on the small-scale parameterization capture most of the peak and low flows, with similar accuracy in both sub

  10. Simulating runoff from an area covered by soil contour ridges using a hydraulic cascade model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slah, Nasri

    2015-04-01

    Runoff agriculture and rainwater harvesting are well known farming techniques that have guaranteed crop production in the arid zone of Tunisia since ancient times. At present, soil contour ridges (banquettes) are the main water and soil conservation used. Actually about one million ha farming land were protected by this technique. Usually, soil contour ridges are designed for a 10-year return period to reduce runoff and erosion in hill-slope catchments. However, the detailed hydraulic function of this technique is still to a major extent unknown. For this purpose a runoff model was developed to simulate the discharge from an upstream system of several soil contour ridges. The model was validated using experimental runoff. The simulated runoff agreed well with observed discharge. The validated model was used to simulate runoff from a system of one to several soil contour ridges in a cascade from a 10-year rainfall event. Practical conclusions are drawn by discussing the spacing and design of the soil contour ridges. Key words: Soil surface management, soil contour ridge, discharge, hydraulic cascade.

  11. Terminology gap in hydrological cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhuo, Lu; Han, Dawei

    2016-04-01

    Water is central to life on Earth. People have been trying to understand how water moves in the hydrosphere throughout the human history. In the 9th century BC, the famous Greek poet Homer described the hydrological cycle in Iliad as "okeanos whose stream bends back in a circle" with a belief that rivers are ocean-fed from subterranean seas. Later, Aristotle (4th century BC) claimed that most of the water came from underground caverns in which air was transformed into water. It was only until 1674, French scientist Perrault developed the correct concept of the water cycle. In modern times, scientists are interested in understanding the individual processes of the hydrological cycle with a keen focus on runoff which supplies water to rivers, lakes, and oceans. Currently, the prevailing concepts on runoff processes include 'infiltration excess runoff' and 'saturation excess runoff'. However, there is no term to describe another major runoff due to the excess beyond the soil water holding capacity (i.e., the field capacity). We argue that a new term should be introduced to fill this gap, and it could be called 'holding excess runoff' which is compatible with the convention. This new term is significant in correcting a half-century misnomer where 'holding excess runoff' has been incorrectly named as 'saturation excess runoff', which was introduced by the Xinanjiang model in China in 1960s. Similar concept has been adopted in many well-known hydrological models such as PDM and HBV in which the saturation refers to the field capacity. The term 'holding excess runoff' resolves such a common confusion in the hydrological community.

  12. Development of an flood-inundation model nesting a grid-based distributed rainfall-runoff model for impact assessment of water-related disasters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanaka, T.; Tachikawa, Y.; Yorozu, K.

    2013-12-01

    A risk assessment of water-related disaster under a changing climate has been highly concerned recently. To examine a change of the magnitude of inundation disasters is an important issue for a risk assessment of water-related disasters. It takes huge computational cost to conduct many 2D-inundation simulations for a whole basin under various external force scenarios. If inundation simulations are conducted only for a possible inundation area, it will highly reduce the computational time. To achieve this purpose, a flood-inundation model which nests a distributed rainfall-runoff model was developed. First, as a rainfall-runoff model to predict flood discharge, a distributed hydrologic model in 30 second spatial resolution, 1K-DHM (http://hywr.kuciv.kyoto-u.ac.jp/products/1K-DHM/1K-DHM.html) was developed, which uses digital elevation and flow direction information in HydroSHED developed by the USGS. 1K-DHM routes spatially-distributed rainfall-runoff using kinematic wave approximation from an upper grid to a lower grid along a flow direction map. Second, the flood-inundation model nesting the rainfall-runoff was developed. The framework of the inundation model is as follows. Setting river discharge simulated by 1K-DHM as a boundary condition, the flood-inundation model calculates river discharge and flooded water by the 1D and 2D inertial model which neglects the advective term in a momentum equation proposed by Bates et. al. (J. Hydrol., 387, 33-45, 2010). The inundation model considers a gradient of water stage with lower computational cost than the diffusive wave model. A devised discretization scheme (Bates et. al.: J. Hydrol., 387, 33-45, 2010) enhances the inundation model to capture the relevant mechanisms of flood propagation with very high computational performance and stability. The distributed runoff model and the inundation model use the same topographic data, thus river channel networks in the flood-inundation model with the 3 second resolution falls

  13. EVALUATION OF GLACIER MELT CONTRIBUTION TO RUNOFF IN THE NORTH CAUCASUS ALPINE CATCHMENTS USING ISOTOPIC METHODS AND ENERGY BALANCE MODELING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Rets

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Frequency and intensity of river floods rise observed in the North Caucasus during last decades is considered to be driven by recent climate change. In order to predict possible future trends in extreme hydrological events in the context of climate change, it is essential to estimate the contribution of different feed sources in complicated flow-forming processes in the alpine part of the North Caucasus. A study was carried out for the Djankuat River basin, the representative for the North Caucasus system. Simultaneous measurements of electrical conductivity, isotopic and ion balance equations, and energy balance modeling of ice and snow melt were used to evaluate the contribution of different sources and processes in the Djankuat River runoff regime formation. A forecast of possible future changes in the Djankuat glacier melting regime according to the predicted climate changes was done.

  14. Data Mining of Hydrological Model Performances

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vitolo, Claudia; Buytaert, Wouter

    2013-04-01

    Multi-objective criteria have long been used to infer hydrological simulations and fit the natural world. On the other hand, modelling frameworks are also becoming more and more popular as identification of the processes occurring in a catchment is still a very uncertain matter. In theory, multi-objective criteria and multi-model frameworks should be used in combination so that the 'representation' of the catchment is fitted to the observations, not only the simulated results. In practise those approaches are highly computationally demanding. The modeller is often obliged to find a compromise reducing either the number of objective functions or model structures taken into consideration. This compromise is becoming obsolete using parallel computing. In the present study we investigate the extend to which model selection algorithms and regionalisation techniques can be improved by such facilities and highlight the challenges that still need to be addressed. The model simulations are obtained using an ensemble of conceptual lumped models (FUSE by Clark et al. 2008), but techniques and suggestions are of general use and applicable to any modelling frameworks. In particular we developed a novel model selection algorithm tuned to drastically reduce the subjectivity in the analysis. The procedure was automated and coupled with redundancy reduction techniques such as PCA and Cluster Analysis. Results show that the actual model 'representation' has the shape of a set of complementing model structures. It is also possible to capture intra-annum dynamics of the response as the algorithm recognises subtle variations in the selected model structures in different seasons. Similar variations can be found analysing different catchments. This suggests the same methodology would be suitable for analysing spatial patterns in the distribution of suitable model structures and maybe long term dynamics in relation with expedited climate modifications. Although the mentioned methodology

  15. Evaluation of drought propagation in an ensemble mean of large-scale hydrological models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. F. Van Loon

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Hydrological drought is increasingly studied using large-scale models. It is, however, not sure whether large-scale models reproduce the development of hydrological drought correctly. The pressing question is how well do large-scale models simulate the propagation from meteorological to hydrological drought? To answer this question, we evaluated the simulation of drought propagation in an ensemble mean of ten large-scale models, both land-surface models and global hydrological models, that participated in the model intercomparison project of WATCH (WaterMIP. For a selection of case study areas, we studied drought characteristics (number of droughts, duration, severity, drought propagation features (pooling, attenuation, lag, lengthening, and hydrological drought typology (classical rainfall deficit drought, rain-to-snow-season drought, wet-to-dry-season drought, cold snow season drought, warm snow season drought, composite drought.

    Drought characteristics simulated by large-scale models clearly reflected drought propagation; i.e. drought events became fewer and longer when moving through the hydrological cycle. However, more differentiation was expected between fast and slowly responding systems, with slowly responding systems having fewer and longer droughts in runoff than fast responding systems. This was not found using large-scale models. Drought propagation features were poorly reproduced by the large-scale models, because runoff reacted immediately to precipitation, in all case study areas. This fast reaction to precipitation, even in cold climates in winter and in semi-arid climates in summer, also greatly influenced the hydrological drought typology as identified by the large-scale models. In general, the large-scale models had the correct representation of drought types, but the percentages of occurrence had some important mismatches, e.g. an overestimation of classical rainfall deficit droughts, and an

  16. [Sensitivity analysis of AnnAGNPS model's hydrology and water quality parameters based on the perturbation analysis method].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xi, Qing; Li, Zhao-Fu; Luo, Chuan

    2014-05-01

    Sensitivity analysis of hydrology and water quality parameters has a great significance for integrated model's construction and application. Based on AnnAGNPS model's mechanism, terrain, hydrology and meteorology, field management, soil and other four major categories of 31 parameters were selected for the sensitivity analysis in Zhongtian river watershed which is a typical small watershed of hilly region in the Taihu Lake, and then used the perturbation method to evaluate the sensitivity of the parameters to the model's simulation results. The results showed that: in the 11 terrain parameters, LS was sensitive to all the model results, RMN, RS and RVC were generally sensitive and less sensitive to the output of sediment but insensitive to the remaining results. For hydrometeorological parameters, CN was more sensitive to runoff and sediment and relatively sensitive for the rest results. In field management, fertilizer and vegetation parameters, CCC, CRM and RR were less sensitive to sediment and particulate pollutants, the six fertilizer parameters (FR, FD, FID, FOD, FIP, FOP) were particularly sensitive for nitrogen and phosphorus nutrients. For soil parameters, K is quite sensitive to all the results except the runoff, the four parameters of the soil's nitrogen and phosphorus ratio (SONR, SINR, SOPR, SIPR) were less sensitive to the corresponding results. The simulation and verification results of runoff in Zhongtian watershed show a good accuracy with the deviation less than 10% during 2005- 2010. Research results have a direct reference value on AnnAGNPS model's parameter selection and calibration adjustment. The runoff simulation results of the study area also proved that the sensitivity analysis was practicable to the parameter's adjustment and showed the adaptability to the hydrology simulation in the Taihu Lake basin's hilly region and provide reference for the model's promotion in China.

  17. Hydrological processes at the urban residential scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Q. Xiao; E.G. McPherson; J.R. Simpson; S.L. Ustin

    2007-01-01

    In the face of increasing urbanization, there is growing interest in application of microscale hydrologic solutions to minimize storm runoff and conserve water at the source. In this study, a physically based numerical model was developed to understand hydrologic processes better at the urban residential scale and the interaction of these processes among different...

  18. Evaluating uncertainties in modelling the snow hydrology of the Fraser River Basin, British Columbia, Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Islam, Siraj Ul; Déry, Stephen J.

    2017-03-01

    This study evaluates predictive uncertainties in the snow hydrology of the Fraser River Basin (FRB) of British Columbia (BC), Canada, using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model forced with several high-resolution gridded climate datasets. These datasets include the Canadian Precipitation Analysis and the thin-plate smoothing splines (ANUSPLIN), North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR), University of Washington (UW) and Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC) gridded products. Uncertainties are evaluated at different stages of the VIC implementation, starting with the driving datasets, optimization of model parameters, and model calibration during cool and warm phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The inter-comparison of the forcing datasets (precipitation and air temperature) and their VIC simulations (snow water equivalent - SWE - and runoff) reveals widespread differences over the FRB, especially in mountainous regions. The ANUSPLIN precipitation shows a considerable dry bias in the Rocky Mountains, whereas the NARR winter air temperature is 2 °C warmer than the other datasets over most of the FRB. In the VIC simulations, the elevation-dependent changes in the maximum SWE (maxSWE) are more prominent at higher elevations of the Rocky Mountains, where the PCIC-VIC simulation accumulates too much SWE and ANUSPLIN-VIC yields an underestimation. Additionally, at each elevation range, the day of maxSWE varies from 10 to 20 days between the VIC simulations. The snow melting season begins early in the NARR-VIC simulation, whereas the PCIC-VIC simulation delays the melting, indicating seasonal uncertainty in SWE simulations. When compared with the observed runoff for the Fraser River main stem at Hope, BC, the ANUSPLIN-VIC simulation shows considerable underestimation of runoff throughout the water year owing to reduced precipitation in the ANUSPLIN forcing dataset. The NARR-VIC simulation yields more winter and spring runoff and earlier decline

  19. Hydrological simulation of Sperchios River basin in Central Greece using the MIKE SHE model and geographic information systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paparrizos, Spyridon; Maris, Fotios

    2017-05-01

    The MIKE SHE model is able to simulate the entire stream flow which includes direct and basic flow. Many models either do not simulate or use simplistic methods to determine the basic flow. The MIKE SHE model takes into account many hydrological data. Since this study was directed towards the simulation of surface runoff and infiltration into saturated and unsaturated zone, the MIKE SHE is an appropriate model for reliable conclusions. In the current research, the MIKE SHE model was used to simulate runoff in the area of Sperchios River basin. Meteorological data from eight rainfall stations within the Sperchios River basin were used as inputs. Vegetation as well as geological data was used to perform the calibration and validation of the physical processes of the model. Additionally, ArcGIS program was used. The results indicated that the model was able to simulate the surface runoff satisfactorily, representing all the hydrological data adequately. Some minor differentiations appeared which can be eliminated with the appropriate adjustments that can be decided by the researcher's experience.

  20. Improving rainfall representation for large-scale hydrological modelling of tropical mountain basins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zulkafli, Zed; Buytaert, Wouter; Onof, Christian; Lavado, Waldo; Guyot, Jean-Loup

    2013-04-01

    Errors in the forcing data are sometimes overlooked in hydrological studies even when they could be the most important source of uncertainty. The latter particularly holds true in tropical countries with short historical records of rainfall monitoring and remote areas with sparse rain gauge network. In such instances, alternative data such as the remotely sensed precipitation from the TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) satellite have been used. These provide a good spatial representation of rainfall processes but have been established in the literature to contain volumetric biases that may impair the results of hydrological modelling or worse, are compensated during model calibration. In this study, we analysed precipitation time series from the TMPA (TRMM Multiple Precipitation Algorithm, version 6) against measurements from over 300 gauges in the Andes and Amazon regions of Peru and Ecuador. We found moderately good monthly correlation between the pixel and gauge pairs but a severe underestimation of rainfall amounts and wet days. The discrepancy between the time series pairs is particularly visible over the east side of the Andes and may be attributed to localized and orographic-driven high intensity rainfall, which the satellite product may have limited skills at capturing due to technical and scale issues. This consequently results in a low bias in the simulated streamflow volumes further downstream. In comparison, with the recently released TMPA, version 7, the biases reduce. This work further explores several approaches to merge the two sources of rainfall measurements, each of a different spatial and temporal support, with the objective of improving the representation of rainfall in hydrological simulations. The methods used are (1) mean bias correction (2) data assimilation using Kalman filter Bayesian updating. The results are evaluated by means of (1) a comparison of runoff ratios (the ratio of the total runoff and the total precipitation over an

  1. Macroscale hydrologic modeling of ecologically relevant flow metrics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seth J. Wenger; Charles H. Luce; Alan F. Hamlet; Daniel J. Isaak; Helen M. Neville

    2010-01-01

    Stream hydrology strongly affects the structure of aquatic communities. Changes to air temperature and precipitation driven by increased greenhouse gas concentrations are shifting timing and volume of streamflows potentially affecting these communities. The variable infiltration capacity (VIC) macroscale hydrologic model has been employed at regional scales to describe...

  2. Catchment-scale hydrological modeling and data assimilation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Troch, P.A.A.; Paniconi, C.; McLaughlin, D.

    2003-01-01

    This special issue of Advances in Water Resources presents recent progress in the application of DA (data assimilation) for distributed hydrological modeling and in the use of in situ and remote sensing datasets for hydrological analysis and parameter estimation. The papers were presented at the De

  3. ZONE package of the Central Valley Hydrologic Model

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — This digital dataset defines the model grid, active cells in model layers 2 and 3, and geologic province arrays of the ZONE package used in the transient hydrologic...

  4. Pursuing the method of multiple working hypotheses for hydrological modeling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Clark, M.P.; Kavetski, D.; Fenicia, F.

    2011-01-01

    Ambiguities in the representation of environmental processes have manifested themselves in a plethora of hydrological models, differing in almost every aspect of their conceptualization and implementation. The current overabundance of models is symptomatic of an insufficient scientific understanding

  5. Modeling Hydrologic Variables and Terrain Features for Strategically Locating Riparian Buffers and Wetlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burkart, M. R.; Tomer, M. D.; James, D. E.; Isenhart, T. M.

    2002-12-01

    Vegetated riparian buffers and constructed wetlands can reduce the amount of sediment, nutrients, and pesticides entering streams if they are located to intercept water moving from agricultural land toward streams. Hydrologic factors control processes that affect water quality making it critical to consider these factors in the design and location of riparian buffers if water quality benefits are to be realized. Three areas with differing terrain and hydrology are being used to develop methods to locate riparian areas with the greatest potential to affect water quality. A 30-meter DEM was used to model the distribution of hydrologic and landscape features to identify where runoff, infiltration, and groundwater flow can be influenced by riparian management. In a loess-dominated watershed with natural drainage, steep slopes and significant erosion, riparian buffers located along first order streams would intercept the largest portion of the water flowing to the stream, thus have a greater effect on water quality. In a third-order, clay-till dominated watershed with extensive artificial drainage, areas best suited for buffers occupy generally less than 300 m of stream reach and are widely distributed throughout the basin. In a third basin, several sites meeting criteria for constructed wetlands have been mapped using Hydrologic and terrain features. These findings will be useful to support the application of conservation practices to reduce nutrient contamination of streams over broad areas.

  6. Multi-scale Evaluation of a Real Time Multi-satellite Precipitation Forced Global Hydrological Modeling System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Y.; Hong, Y.; Gao, H.; Xue, X.; Gourley, J. J.

    2013-12-01

    A Global Hydrological Modeling System (GHMS), with its core part of a physical based distributed hydrological model called Coupled Routing and Excess STorage (CREST), has been established and applied for real time global flood monitoring thus providing early warning for decision makers and stakeholders. The updated Version 7 Near Real Time TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TRMM-RT) with the potential to apply for real time flood prediction without gauge adjustment especially beneficial to those regions sparsely covered by gauge networks, was used to force the CREST model with the spatial resolution of 1/8 degree from 50N to 50S quasi-globally (http://eos.ou.edu) for a retrospective period (2002-2012). The simulated hydrological variables (e.g. runoff depth and streamflow) were compared with Global Runoff Data Center (GRDC) observations in terms of gridded global runoff climatology (mm/yr), the selected basins based annual mean and seasonality of streamflow prediction, daily and monthly scale based streamflow prediction skills over different continents, etc. At global scale, the TRMM RT derived gridded global runoff climatology (mm/yr) and model simulated annual streamflow mean over selected basins are in general agreement with GRDC observation, though with performance variation over different continents (e.g. Africa shows relatively poorer performance due to the sparsely in-situ networks for TMPA RT algorithm development). The results also indicate that the modeling performance is better with a larger basin size and a location near the equator. Given the global availability of satellite-based precipitation in near real-time, this study demonstrates the opportunities and challenges that exist for the real time flood prediction on basis of GHMS, which is particularly useful for the vast ungauged regions of the globe.

  7. Climate change impacts on future snow, ice and rain runoff in a Swiss mountain catchment using multi-dataset calibration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simon Etter

    2017-10-01

    New hydrological insights for the region: We found that the annual runoff dynamics will undergo significant changes with more runoff in winter and less in summer by shifting parts of the summer melt runoff to an earlier peak in spring. We furthermore found that the MDC reduces the uncertainty in the projections of glacial runoff and leads to a different distribution of runoff throughout the year than if calibrated to discharge only. We therefore argue that MDC leads to more consistent model results by representing the runoff generation processes more realistically.

  8. Computer-assisted mesh generation based on hydrological response units for distributed hydrological modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanzana, P.; Jankowfsky, S.; Branger, F.; Braud, I.; Vargas, X.; Hitschfeld, N.; Gironás, J.

    2013-08-01

    Distributed hydrological models rely on a spatial discretization composed of homogeneous units representing different areas within the catchment. Hydrological Response Units (HRUs) typically form the basis of such a discretization. HRUs are generally obtained by intersecting raster or vector layers of land uses, soil types, geology and sub-catchments. Polylines maps representing ditches and river drainage networks can also be used. However this overlapping may result in a mesh with numerical and topological problems not highly representative of the terrain. Thus, a pre-processing is needed to improve the mesh in order to avoid negative effects on the performance of the hydrological model. This paper proposes computer-assisted mesh generation tools to obtain a more regular and physically meaningful mesh of HRUs suitable for hydrologic modeling. We combined existing tools with newly developed scripts implemented in GRASS GIS. The developed scripts address the following problems: (1) high heterogeneity in Digital Elevation Model derived properties within the HRUs, (2) correction of concave polygons or polygons with holes inside, (3) segmentation of very large polygons, and (4) bad estimations of units' perimeter and distances among them. The improvement process was applied and tested using two small catchments in France. The improvement of the spatial discretization was further assessed by comparing the representation and arrangement of overland flow paths in the original and improved meshes. Overall, a more realistic physical representation was obtained with the improved meshes, which should enhance the computation of surface and sub-surface flows in a hydrologic model.

  9. Toward hydro-social modeling: Merging human variables and the social sciences with climate-glacier runoff models (Santa River, Peru)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carey, Mark; Baraer, Michel; Mark, Bryan G.; French, Adam; Bury, Jeffrey; Young, Kenneth R.; McKenzie, Jeffrey M.

    2014-10-01

    Glacier shrinkage caused by climate change is likely to trigger diminished and less consistent stream flow in glacier-fed watersheds worldwide. To understand, model, and adapt to these climate-glacier-water changes, it is vital to integrate the analysis of both water availability (the domain of hydrologists) and water use (the focus for social scientists). Drawn from a case study of the Santa River watershed below Peru’s glaciated Cordillera Blanca mountain range, this paper provides a holistic hydro-social framework that identifies five major human variables critical to hydrological modeling because these forces have profoundly influenced water use over the last 60 years: (1) political agendas and economic development; (2) governance: laws and institutions; (3) technology and engineering; (4) land and resource use; and (5) societal responses. Notable shifts in Santa River water use-including major expansions in hydroelectricity generation, large-scale irrigation projects, and other land and resource-use practices-did not necessarily stem from changing glacier runoff or hydrologic shifts, but rather from these human variables. Ultimately, then, water usage is not predictable based on water availability alone. Glacier runoff conforms to certain expected trends predicted by models of progressively reduced glacier storage. However, societal forces establish the legal, economic, political, cultural, and social drivers that actually shape water usage patterns via human modification of watershed dynamics. This hydro-social framework has widespread implications for hydrological modeling in glaciated watersheds from the Andes and Alps to the Himalaya and Tien Shan, as well as for the development of climate change adaptation plans.

  10. NATO Advanced Study Institute on Recent Advances in the Modeling of Hydrologic Systems

    CERN Document Server

    O’Connell, P

    1991-01-01

    Modeling of the rainfall-runoff process is of both scientific and practical significance. Many of the currently used mathematical models of hydrologic systems were developed a genera­ tion ago. Much of the effort since then has focused on refining these models rather than on developing new models based on improved scientific understanding. In the past few years, however, a renewed effort has been made to improve both our fundamental understanding of hydrologic processes and to exploit technological advances in computing and remote sensing. It is against this background that the NATO Advanced Study Institute on Recent Advances in the Modeling of Hydrologic Systems was organized. The idea for holding a NATO ASI on this topic grew out of an informal discussion between one of the co-directors and Professor Francisco Nunes-Correia at a previous NATO ASI held at Tucson, Arizona in 1985. The Special Program Panel on Global Transport Mechanisms in the Geo-Sciences of the NATO Scientific Affairs Division agreed to sp...

  11. Modelling runoff and soil water content with the DR2-2013© SAGA v1.1 model at catchment scale under Mediterranean conditions (NE Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    López-Vicente, Manuel, , Dr.; Palazón, M. Sc. Leticia; Quijano, M. Sc. Laura; Gaspar, Leticia, , Dr.; Navas, Ana, , Dr.

    2015-04-01

    Hydrological and soil erosion models allow mapping and quantifying spatially distributed rates of runoff depth and soil redistribution for different land uses, management and tillage practices and climatic scenarios. The different temporal and spatial [very small (1000 km2)] scales of numerical simulations make model selection specific to each range of scales. Additionally, the spatial resolution of the inputs is in agreement with the size of the study area. In this study, we run the GIS-based water balance DR2-2013© SAGA v1.1 model (freely downloaded as executable file at http://digital.csic.es/handle/10261/93543), in the Vandunchil stream catchment (23 km2; Ebro river basin, NE Spain). All input maps are generated at 5 x 5 m of cell size (924,573 pixels per map) allowing sound parameterization. Simulation is run at monthly scale with average climatic values. This catchment is an open hydrological system and it has a long history of human occupation, agricultural practices and water management. Numerous manmade infrastructures or landscape linear elements (LLEs: paved and unpaved trails, rock mounds in non-cultivated areas, disperse and small settlements, shallow and long drainage ditches, stone walls, small rock dams, fences and vegetation strips) appear throughout the hillslopes and streams and modify the natural runoff pathways and thus the hydrological and sediment connectivity. Rain-fed cereal fields occupy one third of the catchment area, 1% corresponds to sealed soils, and the remaining area is covered with Mediterranean forest, scrubland, pine afforestation and meadow. The parent material corresponds to Miocene sandstones and lutites and Holocene colluvial and alluvial deposits. The climate is continental Mediterranean with two humid periods, one in spring and a second in autumn that summarizes 63% of the total annual precipitation. We created a synthetic weather station (WS) from the Caseda and Uncastillo WS. The effective rainfall that reaches the soils

  12. Common problematic aspects of coupling hydrological models with groundwater flow models on the river catchment scale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Barthel

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Model coupling requires a thorough conceptualisation of the coupling strategy, including an exact definition of the individual model domains, the "transboundary" processes and the exchange parameters. It is shown here that in the case of coupling groundwater flow and hydrological models – in particular on the regional scale – it is very important to find a common definition and scale-appropriate process description of groundwater recharge and baseflow (or "groundwater runoff/discharge" in order to achieve a meaningful representation of the processes that link the unsaturated and saturated zones and the river network. As such, integration by means of coupling established disciplinary models is problematic given that in such models, processes are defined from a purpose-oriented, disciplinary perspective and are therefore not necessarily consistent with definitions of the same process in the model concepts of other disciplines. This article contains a general introduction to the requirements and challenges of model coupling in Integrated Water Resources Management including a definition of the most relevant technical terms, a short description of the commonly used approach of model coupling and finally a detailed consideration of the role of groundwater recharge and baseflow in coupling groundwater models with hydrological models. The conclusions summarize the most relevant problems rather than giving practical solutions. This paper aims to point out that working on a large scale in an integrated context requires rethinking traditional disciplinary workflows and encouraging communication between the different disciplines involved. It is worth noting that the aspects discussed here are mainly viewed from a groundwater perspective, which reflects the author's background.

  13. Do we really use rainfall observations consistent with reality in hydrological modelling?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ciampalini, Rossano; Follain, Stéphane; Raclot, Damien; Crabit, Armand; Pastor, Amandine; Moussa, Roger; Le Bissonnais, Yves

    2017-04-01

    Spatial and temporal patterns in rainfall control how water reaches soil surface and interacts with soil properties (i.e., soil wetting, infiltration, saturation). Once a hydrological event is defined by a rainfall with its spatiotemporal variability and by some environmental parameters such as soil properties (including land use, topographic and anthropic features), the evidence shows that each parameter variation produces different, specific outputs (e.g., runoff, flooding etc.). In this study, we focus on the effect of rainfall patterns because, due to the difficulty to dispose of detailed data, their influence in modelling is frequently underestimated or neglected. A rainfall event affects a catchment non uniformly, it is spatially localized and its pattern moves in space and time. The way and the time how the water reaches the soil and saturates it respect to the geometry of the catchment deeply influences soil saturation, runoff, and then sediment delivery. This research, approaching a hypothetical, simple case, aims to stimulate the debate on the reliability of the rainfall quality used in hydrological / soil erosion modelling. We test on a small catchment of the south of France (Roujan, Languedoc Roussillon) the influence of rainfall variability with the use of a HD hybrid hydrological - soil erosion model, combining a cinematic wave with the St. Venant equation and a simplified "bucket" conceptual model for ground water, able to quantify the effect of different spatiotemporal patterns of a very-high-definition synthetic rainfall. Results indicate that rainfall spatiotemporal patterns are crucial simulating an erosive event: differences between spatially uniform rainfalls, as frequently adopted in simulations, and some hypothetical rainfall patterns here applied, reveal that the outcome of a simulated event can be highly underestimated.

  14. Application of SWAT-HS, a lumped hillslope model to simulate hydrology in the Cannonsville Reservoir watershed, New York

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoang, Linh; Schneiderman, Elliot; Mukundan, Rajith; Moore, Karen; Owens, Emmet; Steenhuis, Tammo

    2017-04-01

    Surface runoff is the primary mechanism transporting substances such as sediments, agricultural chemicals, and pathogens to receiving waters. In order to predict runoff and pollutant fluxes, and to evaluate management practices, it is essential to accurately predict the areas generating surface runoff, which depend on the type of runoff: infiltration-excess runoff and saturation-excess runoff. The watershed of Cannonsville reservoir is part of the New York City water supply system that provides high quality drinking water to nine million people in New York City (NYC) and nearby communities. Previous research identified saturation-excess runoff as the dominant runoff mechanism in this region. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is a promising tool to simulate the NYC watershed given its broad application and good performance in many watersheds with different scales worldwide, for its ability to model water quality responses, and to evaluate the effect of management practices on water quality at the watershed scale. However, SWAT predicts runoff based mainly on soil and land use characteristics, and implicitly considers only infiltration-excess runoff. Therefore, we developed a modified version of SWAT, referred to as SWAT-Hillslope (SWAT-HS), which explicitly simulates saturation-excess runoff by redefining Hydrological Response Units (HRUs) based on wetness classes with varying soil water storage capacities, and by introducing a surface aquifer with the ability to route interflow from "drier" to "wetter" wetness classes. SWAT-HS was first tested at Town Brook, a 37 km2 headwater watershed draining to the Cannonsville reservoir using a single sub-basin for the whole watershed. SWAT-HS performed well, and predicted streamflow yielded Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiencies of 0.68 and 0.87 at the daily and monthly time steps, respectively. More importantly, it predicted the spatial distribution of saturated areas accurately. Based on the good performance in the Town Brook

  15. Hydrological Modeling of Rainfall-Watershed-Bioretention System with EPA SWMM

    Science.gov (United States)

    gülbaz, sezar; melek kazezyılmaz-alhan, cevza

    2016-04-01

    Water resources should be protected for the sustainability of water supply and water quality. Human activities such as high urbanization with lack of infrastructure system and uncontrolled agricultural facilities adversely affect the water resources. Therefore, recent techniques should be investigated in detail to avoid present and future problems like flood, drought and water pollution. Low Impact Development-Best Management Practice (LID-BMP) is such a technique to manage storm water runoff and quality. There are several LID storm water BMPs such as bioretention facilities, rain gardens, storm water wetlands, vegetated rooftops, rain barrels, vegetative swales and permeable pavements. Bioretention is a type of Low Impact Developments (LIDs) implemented to diminish adverse effects of urbanization by reducing peak flows over the surface and improving surface water quality simultaneously. Different soil types in different ratios are considered in bioretention design which affects the performance of bioretention systems. Therefore, in this study, a hydrologic model for bioretention is developed by using Environmental Protection Agency Storm Water Management Model (EPA SWMM). Part of the input data is supplied to the hydrologic model by experimental setup called Rainfall-Watershed-Bioretention (RWB). RWB System is developed to investigate the relation among rainfall, watershed and bioretention. This setup consists of three main parts which are artificial rainfall system, drainage area and four bioretention columns with different soil mixture. EPA SWMM is a dynamic simulation model for the surface runoff which develops on a watershed during a rainfall event. The model is commonly used to plan, analyze, and control storm water runoff, to design drainage system components and to evaluate watershed management of both urban and rural areas. Furthermore, EPA SWMM is a well-known program to model LID-Bioretention in the literature. Therefore, EPA SWMM is employed in drainage

  16. A large-scale, high-resolution hydrological model parameter data set for climate change impact assessment for the conterminous US

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oubeidillah, A. A.; Kao, S.-C.; Ashfaq, M.; Naz, B. S.; Tootle, G.

    2014-01-01

    To extend geographical coverage, refine spatial resolution, and improve modeling efficiency, a computation- and data-intensive effort was conducted to organize a comprehensive hydrologic data set with post-calibrated model parameters for hydro-climate impact assessment. Several key inputs for hydrologic simulation - including meteorologic forcings, soil, land class, vegetation, and elevation - were collected from multiple best-available data sources and organized for 2107 hydrologic subbasins (8-digit hydrologic units, HUC8s) in the conterminous US at refined 1/24° (~4 km) spatial resolution. Using high-performance computing for intensive model calibration, a high-resolution parameter data set was prepared for the macro-scale variable infiltration capacity (VIC) hydrologic model. The VIC simulation was driven by Daymet daily meteorological forcing and was calibrated against US Geological Survey (USGS) WaterWatch monthly runoff observations for each HUC8. The results showed that this new parameter data set may help reasonably simulate runoff at most US HUC8 subbasins. Based on this exhaustive calibration effort, it is now possible to accurately estimate the resources required for further model improvement across the entire conterminous US. We anticipate that through this hydrologic parameter data set, the repeated effort of fundamental data processing can be lessened, so that research efforts can emphasize the more challenging task of assessing climate change impacts. The pre-organized model parameter data set will be provided to interested parties to support further hydro-climate impact assessment.

  17. The ensemble particle filter (EnPF) in rainfall-runoff models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Delft, G.; El Serafy, G.Y.; Heemink, A.W.

    2009-01-01

    Rainfall-runoff models play a very important role in flood forecasting. However, these models contain large uncertainties caused by errors in both the model itself and the input data. Data assimilation techniques are being used to reduce these uncertainties. The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and the

  18. A method to employ the spatial organization of catchments into semi-distributed rainfall-runoff models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oppel, Henning; Schumann, Andreas

    2017-08-01

    A distributed or semi-distributed deterministic hydrological model should consider the hydrologically most relevant catchment characteristics. These are heterogeneously distributed within a watershed but often interrelated and subject to a certain spatial organization which results in archetypes of combined characteristics. In order to reproduce the natural rainfall-runoff response the reduction of variance of catchment properties as well as the incorporation of the spatial organization of the catchment are desirable. In this study the width-function approach is utilized as a basic characteristic to analyse the succession of catchment characteristics. By applying this technique we were able to assess the context of catchment properties like soil or topology along the streamflow length and the network geomorphology, giving indications of the spatial organization of a catchment. Moreover, this information and this technique have been implemented in an algorithm for automated sub-basin ascertainment, which included the definition of zones within the newly defined sub-basins. The objective was to provide sub-basins that were less heterogeneous than common separation schemes. The algorithm was applied to two parameters characterizing the topology and soil of four mid-European watersheds. Resulting partitions indicated a wide range of applicability for the method and the algorithm. Additionally, the intersection of derived zones for different catchment characteristics could give insights into sub-basin similarities. Finally, a HBV96 case study demonstrated the potential benefits of modelling with the new subdivision technique.

  19. Modelling floods in the Ammer catchment: limitations and challenges with a coupled meteo-hydrological model approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Ludwig

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available Numerous applications of hydrological models have shown their capability to simulate hydrological processes with a reasonable degree of certainty. For flood modelling, the quality of precipitation data — the key input parameter — is very important but often remains questionable. This paper presents a critical review of experience in the EU-funded RAPHAEL project. Different meteorological data sources were evaluated to assess their applicability for flood modelling and forecasting in the Bavarian pre-alpine catchment of the Ammer river (709 km2, for which the hydrological aspects of runoff production are described as well as the complex nature of floods. Apart from conventional rain gauge data, forecasts from several Numerical Weather Prediction Models (NWP as well as rain radar data are examined, scaled and applied within the framework of a GIS-structured and physically based hydrological model. Multi-scenario results are compared and analysed. The synergetic approach leads to promising results under certain meteorological conditions but emphasises various drawbacks. At present, NWPs are the only source of rainfall forecasts (up to 96 hours with large spatial coverage and high temporal resolution. On the other hand, the coarse spatial resolution of NWP grids cannot yet address, adequately, the heterogeneous structures of orographic rainfields in complex convective situations; hence, a major downscaling problem for mountain catchment applications is introduced. As shown for two selected Ammer flood events, a high variability in prediction accuracy has still to be accepted at present. Sensitivity analysis of both meteo-data input and hydrological model performance in terms of process description are discussed and positive conclusions have been drawn for future applications of an advanced meteo-hydro model synergy. Keywords: RAPHAEL, modelling, forecasting, model coupling, PROMET-D, TOPMODEL

  20. Anthropogenic factors as an element of uncertainty in hydrological modelling of water yield with SWAT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Corobov

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available In 2014 the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool model was used as a basis for follow-up investigations of Moldova’s small rivers potential flow. The first step of the study included the validation of SWAT for local conditions. As an experimental area, the Cogilnic River watershed was selected. Interim steps included the watershed delineation aimed to identify the subwatersheds and the Hydrological Response Units (small entities with the same characteristics of hydrologic soil type, land use and slopes. To address these tasks, the land cover, soil and slope layers, based on the Digital Elevation Model, were integrated in the SWAT environment. These thematic layers, alongside with long-term information on local monthly maximum and minimum temperatures and precipitation, enabled reflecting the differences in hydrological conditions and defining the watershed runoff. However, the validation of the modelling outputs, carried out through comparison of a simulated water yield from the studied watershed with actual Cogilnic streamflow measures, observed in 2010-2012, showed a great discrepancy between these parameters caused by anthropogenic loading on this small river. Thus, a ‘classical’ SWAT modelling needs to account for real environmental conditions and water use in the study area.

  1. Hydrological model performance and parameter estimation in the wavelet-domain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Schaefli

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a method for rainfall-runoff model calibration and performance analysis in the wavelet-domain by fitting the estimated wavelet-power spectrum (a representation of the time-varying frequency content of a time series of a simulated discharge series to the one of the corresponding observed time series. As discussed in this paper, calibrating hydrological models so as to reproduce the time-varying frequency content of the observed signal can lead to different results than parameter estimation in the time-domain. Therefore, wavelet-domain parameter estimation has the potential to give new insights into model performance and to reveal model structural deficiencies. We apply the proposed method to synthetic case studies and a real-world discharge modeling case study and discuss how model diagnosis can benefit from an analysis in the wavelet-domain. The results show that for the real-world case study of precipitation – runoff modeling for a high alpine catchment, the calibrated discharge simulation captures the dynamics of the observed time series better than the results obtained through calibration in the time-domain. In addition, the wavelet-domain performance assessment of this case study highlights the frequencies that are not well reproduced by the model, which gives specific indications about how to improve the model structure.

  2. Revisiting an interdisciplinary hydrological modelling project. A socio-hydrology (?) example from the early 2000s

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seidl, Roman; Barthel, Roland

    2016-04-01

    Interdisciplinary scientific and societal knowledge plays an increasingly important role in global change research. Also, in the field of water resources interdisciplinarity as well as cooperation with stakeholders from outside academia have been recognized as important. In this contribution, we revisit an integrated regional modelling system (DANUBIA), which was developed by an interdisciplinary team of researchers and relied on stakeholder participation in the framework of the GLOWA-Danube project from 2001 to 2011 (Mauser and Prasch 2016). As the model was developed before the current increase in literature on participatory modelling and interdisciplinarity, we ask how a socio-hydrology approach would have helped and in what way it would have made the work different. The present contribution firstly presents the interdisciplinary concept of DANUBIA, mainly with focus on the integration of human behaviour in a spatially explicit, process-based numerical modelling system (Roland Barthel, Janisch, Schwarz, Trifkovic, Nickel, Schulz, and Mauser 2008; R. Barthel, Nickel, Meleg, Trifkovic, and Braun 2005). Secondly, we compare the approaches to interdisciplinarity in GLOWA-Danube with concepts and ideas presented by socio-hydrology. Thirdly, we frame DANUBIA and a review of key literature on socio-hydrology in the context of a survey among hydrologists (N = 184). This discussion is used to highlight gaps and opportunities of the socio-hydrology approach. We show that the interdisciplinary aspect of the project and the participatory process of stakeholder integration in DANUBIA were not entirely successful. However, important insights were gained and important lessons were learnt. Against the background of these experiences we feel that in its current state, socio-hydrology is still lacking a plan for knowledge integration. Moreover, we consider necessary that socio-hydrology takes into account the lessons learnt from these earlier examples of knowledge integration

  3. Hydrologic modeling of Guinale River Basin using HEC-HMS and synthetic aperture radar

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bien, Ferdinand E.; Plopenio, Joanaviva C.

    2017-09-01

    This paper presents the methods and results of hydrologic modeling of Guinale river basin through the use of HEC-HMS software and Synthetic Aperture Radar Digital Elevation Model (SAR DEM). Guinale River Basin is located in the province of Albay, Philippines which is one of the river basins covered by the Ateneo de Naga University (ADNU) Phil-LiDAR 1. This research project was funded by the Department of Science and Technology (DOST) through the Philippine Council for Industry, Energy and Emerging Technology Research and Development (PCIEERD). Its objectives are to simulate the hydrologic model of Guinale River basin using HEC-HMS software and SAR DEM. Its basin covers an area of 165.395 sq.km. and the hydrologic model was calibrated using the storm event typhoon Nona (international name Melor). Its parameter had undergone a series of optimization processes of HEC-HMS software in order to produce an acceptable level of model efficiency. The Nash-Sutcliffe (E), Percent Bias and Standard Deviation Ratio were used to measure the model efficiency, giving values of 0.880, 0.260 and 0.346 respectively which resulted to a "very good" performance rating of the model. The flood inundation model was simulated using Legazpi Rainfall Intensity Duration Frequency Curves (RIDF) and HEC-RAS software developed by the US Army corps of Engineers (USACE). This hydrologic model will provide the Municipal Disaster Risk Reduction Management Office (MDRRMO), Local Government units (LGUs) and the community a tool for the prediction of runoff in the area.

  4. Hydrologi

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Burcharth, Hans F.

    Hydro1ogi er den videnskab, der omhand1er jordens vand, dets forekomst, cirku1ation og forde1ing, dets kemiske og fysiske egenskaber samt indvirkning på omgivelserne, herunder dets relation ti1 alt liv på jorden. Således lyder en b1andt mange definitioner på begrebet hydrologi, og som man kan se...

  5. A double continuum hydrological model for glacier applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. de Fleurian

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The flow of glaciers and ice streams is strongly influenced by the presence of water at the interface between ice and bed. In this paper, a hydrological model evaluating the subglacial water pressure is developed with the final aim of estimating the sliding velocities of glaciers. The global model fully couples the subglacial hydrology and the ice dynamics through a water-dependent friction law. The hydrological part of the model follows a double continuum approach which relies on the use of porous layers to compute water heads in inefficient and efficient drainage systems. This method has the advantage of a relatively low computational cost that would allow its application to large ice bodies such as Greenland or Antarctica ice streams. The hydrological model has been implemented in the finite element code Elmer/Ice, which simultaneously computes the ice flow. Herein, we present an application to the Haut Glacier d'Arolla for which we have a large number of observations, making it well suited to the purpose of validating both the hydrology and ice flow model components. The selection of hydrological, under-determined parameters from a wide range of values is guided by comparison of the model results with available glacier observations. Once this selection has been performed, the coupling between subglacial hydrology and ice dynamics is undertaken throughout a melt season. Results indicate that this new modelling approach for subglacial hydrology is able to reproduce the broad temporal and spatial patterns of the observed subglacial hydrological system. Furthermore, the coupling with the ice dynamics shows good agreement with the observed spring speed-up.

  6. Defining optimal DEM resolutions and point densities for modelling hydrologically sensitive areas in agricultural catchments dominated by microtopography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, I. A.; Jordan, P.; Shine, O.; Fenton, O.; Mellander, P.-E.; Dunlop, P.; Murphy, P. N. C.

    2017-02-01

    Defining critical source areas (CSAs) of diffuse pollution in agricultural catchments depends upon the accurate delineation of hydrologically sensitive areas (HSAs) at highest risk of generating surface runoff pathways. In topographically complex landscapes, this delineation is constrained by digital elevation model (DEM) resolution and the influence of microtopographic features. To address this, optimal DEM resolutions and point densities for spatially modelling HSAs were investigated, for onward use in delineating CSAs. The surface runoff framework was modelled using the Topographic Wetness Index (TWI) and maps were derived from 0.25 m LiDAR DEMs (40 bare-earth points m-2), resampled 1 m and 2 m LiDAR DEMs, and a radar generated 5 m DEM. Furthermore, the resampled 1 m and 2 m LiDAR DEMs were regenerated with reduced bare-earth point densities (5, 2, 1, 0.5, 0.25 and 0.125 points m-2) to analyse effects on elevation accuracy and important microtopographic features. Results were compared to surface runoff field observations in two 10 km2 agricultural catchments for evaluation. Analysis showed that the accuracy of modelled HSAs using different thresholds (5%, 10% and 15% of the catchment area with the highest TWI values) was much higher using LiDAR data compared to the 5 m DEM (70-100% and 10-84%, respectively). This was attributed to the DEM capturing microtopographic features such as hedgerow banks, roads, tramlines and open agricultural drains, which acted as topographic barriers or channels that diverted runoff away from the hillslope scale flow direction. Furthermore, the identification of 'breakthrough' and 'delivery' points along runoff pathways where runoff and mobilised pollutants could be potentially transported between fields or delivered to the drainage channel network was much higher using LiDAR data compared to the 5 m DEM (75-100% and 0-100%, respectively). Optimal DEM resolutions of 1-2 m were identified for modelling HSAs, which balanced the need