WorldWideScience

Sample records for hurricane storm surges

  1. Mapping and Visualization of Storm-Surge Dynamics for Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gesch, Dean B.

    2009-01-01

    The damages caused by the storm surges from Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita were significant and occurred over broad areas. Storm-surge maps are among the most useful geospatial datasets for hurricane recovery, impact assessments, and mitigation planning for future storms. Surveyed high-water marks were used to generate a maximum storm-surge surface for Hurricane Katrina extending from eastern Louisiana to Mobile Bay, Alabama. The interpolated surface was intersected with high-resolution lidar elevation data covering the study area to produce a highly detailed digital storm-surge inundation map. The storm-surge dataset and related data are available for display and query in a Web-based viewer application. A unique water-level dataset from a network of portable pressure sensors deployed in the days just prior to Hurricane Rita's landfall captured the hurricane's storm surge. The recorded sensor data provided water-level measurements with a very high temporal resolution at surveyed point locations. The resulting dataset was used to generate a time series of storm-surge surfaces that documents the surge dynamics in a new, spatially explicit way. The temporal information contained in the multiple storm-surge surfaces can be visualized in a number of ways to portray how the surge interacted with and was affected by land surface features. Spatially explicit storm-surge products can be useful for a variety of hurricane impact assessments, especially studies of wetland and land changes where knowledge of the extent and magnitude of storm-surge flooding is critical.

  2. Monitoring Inland Storm Surge and Flooding from Hurricane Rita

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGee, Benton D.; Tollett, Roland W.; Mason, Jr., Robert R.

    2006-01-01

    Pressure transducers (sensors) and high-water marks were used to document the inland water levels related to storm surge generated by Hurricane Rita in southwestern Louisiana and southeastern Texas. On September 22-23, 2005, an experimental monitoring network of sensors was deployed at 33 sites over an area of about 4,000 square miles to record the timing, extent, and magnitude of inland hurricane storm surge and coastal flooding. Sensors were programmed to record date and time, temperature, and barometric or water pressure. Water pressure was corrected for changes in barometric pressure and salinity. Elevation surveys using global-positioning systems and differential levels were used to relate all storm-surge water-level data, reference marks, benchmarks, sensor measuring points, and high-water marks to the North American Vertical Datum of 1988 (NAVD 88). The resulting data indicated that storm-surge water levels over 14 feet above NAVD 88 occurred at three locations, and rates of water-level rise greater than 5 feet per hour occurred at three locations near the Louisiana coast.

  3. High Resolution Hurricane Storm Surge and Inundation Modeling (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luettich, R.; Westerink, J. J.

    2010-12-01

    Coastal counties are home to nearly 60% of the U.S. population and industry that accounts for over 16 million jobs and 10% of the U.S. annual gross domestic product. However, these areas are susceptible to some of the most destructive forces in nature, including tsunamis, floods, and severe storm-related hazards. Since 1900, tropical cyclones making landfall on the US Gulf of Mexico Coast have caused more than 9,000 deaths; nearly 2,000 deaths have occurred during the past half century. Tropical cyclone-related adjusted, annualized losses in the US have risen from 1.3 billion from 1949-1989, to 10.1 billion from 1990-1995, and $35.8 billion per year for the period 2001-2005. The risk associated with living and doing business in the coastal areas that are most susceptible to tropical cyclones is exacerbated by rising sea level and changes in the characteristics of severe storms associated with global climate change. In the five years since hurricane Katrina devastated the northern Gulf of Mexico Coast, considerable progress has been made in the development and utilization of high resolution coupled storm surge and wave models. Recent progress will be presented with the ADCIRC + SWAN storm surge and wave models. These tightly coupled models use a common unstructured grid in the horizontal that is capable of covering large areas while also providing high resolution (i.e., base resolution down to 20m plus smaller subgrid scale features such as sea walls and levees) in areas that are subject to surge and inundation. Hydrodynamic friction and overland winds are adjusted to account for local land cover. The models scale extremely well on modern high performance computers allowing rapid turnaround on large numbers of compute cores. The models have been adopted for FEMA National Flood Insurance Program studies, hurricane protection system design and risk analysis, and quasi-operational forecast systems for several regions of the country. They are also being evaluated as

  4. Data Assimilation within the Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC) Modeling Framework for Hurricane Storm Surge Forecasting

    KAUST Repository

    Butler, T.; Altaf, Muhammad; Dawson, C.; Hoteit, Ibrahim; Luo, X.; Mayo, T.

    2012-01-01

    levels, and wave heights—during these extreme events. This type of data, if available in real time, could be used in a data assimilation framework to improve hurricane storm surge forecasts. In this paper a data assimilation methodology for storm surge

  5. Hurricane storm surge and amphibian communities in coastal wetlands of northwestern Florida

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gunzburger, M.S.; Hughes, W.B.; Barichivich, W.J.; Staiger, J.S.

    2010-01-01

    Isolated wetlands in the Southeastern United States are dynamic habitats subject to fluctuating environmental conditions. Wetlands located near marine environments are subject to alterations in water chemistry due to storm surge during hurricanes. The objective of our study was to evaluate the effect of storm surge overwash on wetland amphibian communities. Thirty-two wetlands in northwestern Florida were sampled over a 45-month period to assess amphibian species richness and water chemistry. During this study, seven wetlands were overwashed by storm surge from Hurricane Dennis which made landfall 10 July 2005 in the Florida panhandle. This event allowed us to evaluate the effect of storm surge overwash on water chemistry and amphibian communities of the wetlands. Specific conductance across all wetlands was low pre-storm (marine habitats are resistant to the effects of storm surge overwash. ?? 2010 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

  6. Monitoring Hurricane Rita Inland Storm Surge: Chapter 7J in Science and the storms-the USGS response to the hurricanes of 2005

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGee, Benton D.; Tollett, Roland W.; Goree, Burl B.

    2007-01-01

    Pressure transducers (sensors) are accurate, reliable, and cost-effective tools to measure and record the magnitude, extent, and timing of hurricane storm surge. Sensors record storm-surge peaks more accurately and reliably than do high-water marks. Data collected by sensors may be used in storm-surge models to estimate when, where, and to what degree stormsurge flooding will occur during future storm-surge events and to calibrate and verify stormsurge models, resulting in a better understanding of the dynamics of storm surge.

  7. Data Assimilation within the Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC) Modeling Framework for Hurricane Storm Surge Forecasting

    KAUST Repository

    Butler, T.

    2012-07-01

    Accurate, real-time forecasting of coastal inundation due to hurricanes and tropical storms is a challenging computational problem requiring high-fidelity forward models of currents and water levels driven by hurricane-force winds. Despite best efforts in computational modeling there will always be uncertainty in storm surge forecasts. In recent years, there has been significant instrumentation located along the coastal United States for the purpose of collecting data—specifically wind, water levels, and wave heights—during these extreme events. This type of data, if available in real time, could be used in a data assimilation framework to improve hurricane storm surge forecasts. In this paper a data assimilation methodology for storm surge forecasting based on the use of ensemble Kalman filters and the advanced circulation (ADCIRC) storm surge model is described. The singular evolutive interpolated Kalman (SEIK) filter has been shown to be effective at producing accurate results for ocean models using small ensemble sizes initialized by an empirical orthogonal function analysis. The SEIK filter is applied to the ADCIRC model to improve storm surge forecasting, particularly in capturing maximum water levels (high water marks) and the timing of the surge. Two test cases of data obtained from hindcast studies of Hurricanes Ike and Katrina are presented. It is shown that a modified SEIK filter with an inflation factor improves the accuracy of coarse-resolution forecasts of storm surge resulting from hurricanes. Furthermore, the SEIK filter requires only modest computational resources to obtain more accurate forecasts of storm surge in a constrained time window where forecasters must interact with emergency responders.

  8. The value of wetlands in protecting southeast louisiana from hurricane storm surges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbier, Edward B; Georgiou, Ioannis Y; Enchelmeyer, Brian; Reed, Denise J

    2013-01-01

    The Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004 and Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005 have spurred global interest in the role of coastal wetlands and vegetation in reducing storm surge and flood damages. Evidence that coastal wetlands reduce storm surge and attenuate waves is often cited in support of restoring Gulf Coast wetlands to protect coastal communities and property from hurricane damage. Yet interdisciplinary studies combining hydrodynamic and economic analysis to explore this relationship for temperate marshes in the Gulf are lacking. By combining hydrodynamic analysis of simulated hurricane storm surges and economic valuation of expected property damages, we show that the presence of coastal marshes and their vegetation has a demonstrable effect on reducing storm surge levels, thus generating significant values in terms of protecting property in southeast Louisiana. Simulations for four storms along a sea to land transect show that surge levels decline with wetland continuity and vegetation roughness. Regressions confirm that wetland continuity and vegetation along the transect are effective in reducing storm surge levels. A 0.1 increase in wetland continuity per meter reduces property damages for the average affected area analyzed in southeast Louisiana, which includes New Orleans, by $99-$133, and a 0.001 increase in vegetation roughness decreases damages by $24-$43. These reduced damages are equivalent to saving 3 to 5 and 1 to 2 properties per storm for the average area, respectively.

  9. Extreme Wind, Rain, Storm Surge, and Flooding: Why Hurricane Impacts are Difficult to Forecast?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, S. S.

    2017-12-01

    The 2017 hurricane season is estimated as one of the costliest in the U.S. history. The damage and devastation caused by Hurricane Harvey in Houston, Irma in Florida, and Maria in Puerto Rico are distinctly different in nature. The complexity of hurricane impacts from extreme wind, rain, storm surge, and flooding presents a major challenge in hurricane forecasting. A detailed comparison of the storm impacts from Harvey, Irma, and Maria will be presented using observations and state-of-the-art new generation coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean hurricane forecast model. The author will also provide an overview on what we can expect in terms of advancement in science and technology that can help improve hurricane impact forecast in the near future.

  10. An Exploration of Wind Stress Calculation Techniques in Hurricane Storm Surge Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kyra M. Bryant

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available As hurricanes continue to threaten coastal communities, accurate storm surge forecasting remains a global priority. Achieving a reliable storm surge prediction necessitates accurate hurricane intensity and wind field information. The wind field must be converted to wind stress, which represents the air-sea momentum flux component required in storm surge and other oceanic models. This conversion requires a multiplicative drag coefficient for the air density and wind speed to represent the air-sea momentum exchange at a given location. Air density is a known parameter and wind speed is a forecasted variable, whereas the drag coefficient is calculated using an empirical correlation. The correlation’s accuracy has brewed a controversy of its own for more than half a century. This review paper examines the lineage of drag coefficient correlations and their acceptance among scientists.

  11. Hindcast and validation of Hurricane Ike waves, forerunner, and storm surge

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hope, M.E.; Westerink, J.J.; Kennedy, A.B.; Kerr, P.C.; Dietrich, J.C.; Dawson, C.; Bender, C.J.; Smith, J.M.; Jensen, R.E.; Zijlema, M.; Holthuijsen, L.H.; Luettich, R.A.; Powell, M.D.; Cardone, V.J.; Cox, A.T.; Pourtaheri, H.; Roberts, H.J.; Atkinson, J.H.; Tanaka, S.; Westerink, H.J.; Westerink, L.G.

    2013-01-01

    Hurricane Ike (2008) made landfall near Galveston, Texas, as a moderate intensity storm. Its large wind field in conjunction with the Louisiana-Texas coastline's broad shelf and large scale concave geometry generated waves and surge that impacted over 1000 km of coastline. Ike's complex and varied

  12. Probabilistic hurricane-induced storm surge hazard assessment in Guadeloupe, Lesser Antilles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krien, Y.; Dudon, B.; Roger, J.; Zahibo, N.

    2015-08-01

    Current storm surge hazard maps in the French West Indies are essentially based on simple statistical methods using limited historical data and early low-resolution models which do not take the effect of waves into account. In this paper, we infer new 100-year and 1000-year surge levels in Guadeloupe from the numerical modelling of storm surges induced by a large set of synthetic events that are in statistical agreement with features of historical hurricanes in the North Atlantic Basin between 1980 and 2011. Computations are performed using the wave-current coupled model ADCIRC-SWAN with high grid resolutions (up to 40-60 m) in the coastal and wave dissipation areas. This model is validated against observations during past events such as hurricane HUGO (1989). Results are generally found to be in reasonable agreement with past studies in areas where surge is essentially wind-driven, but found to differ significantly in coastal regions where the transfer of momentum from waves to the water column constitutes a non-negligible part of the total surge. The methodology, which can be applied to other islands in the Lesser Antilles, allows storm surge level maps to be obtained that can be of major interest for coastal planners and decision makers in terms of risk management.

  13. Predicting the Storm Surge Threat of Hurricane Sandy with the National Weather Service SLOSH Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristina Forbes

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Numerical simulations of the storm tide that flooded the US Atlantic coastline during Hurricane Sandy (2012 are carried out using the National Weather Service (NWS Sea Lakes and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH storm surge prediction model to quantify its ability to replicate the height, timing, evolution and extent of the water that was driven ashore by this large, destructive storm. Recent upgrades to the numerical model, including the incorporation of astronomical tides, are described and simulations with and without these upgrades are contrasted to assess their contributions to the increase in forecast accuracy. It is shown, through comprehensive verifications of SLOSH simulation results against peak water surface elevations measured at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA tide gauge stations, by storm surge sensors deployed and hundreds of high water marks collected by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS, that the SLOSH-simulated water levels at 71% (89% of the data measurement locations have less than 20% (30% relative error. The RMS error between observed and modeled peak water levels is 0.47 m. In addition, the model’s extreme computational efficiency enables it to run large, automated ensembles of predictions in real-time to account for the high variability that can occur in tropical cyclone forecasts, thus furnishing a range of values for the predicted storm surge and inundation threat.

  14. Influence of potential sea level rise on societal vulnerability to hurricane storm-surge hazards, Sarasota County, Florida

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frazier, Tim G.; Wood, Nathan; Yarnal, Brent; Bauer, Denise H.

    2010-01-01

    Although the potential for hurricanes under current climatic conditions continue to threaten coastal communities, there is concern that climate change, specifically potential increases in sea level, could influence the impacts of future hurricanes. To examine the potential effect of sea level rise on community vulnerability to future hurricanes, we assess variations in socioeconomic exposure in Sarasota County, FL, to contemporary hurricane storm-surge hazards and to storm-surge hazards enhanced by sea level rise scenarios. Analysis indicates that significant portions of the population, economic activity, and critical facilities are in contemporary and future hurricane storm-surge hazard zones. The addition of sea level rise to contemporary storm-surge hazard zones effectively causes population and asset (infrastructure, natural resources, etc) exposure to be equal to or greater than what is in the hazard zone of the next higher contemporary Saffir–Simpson hurricane category. There is variability among communities for this increased exposure, with greater increases in socioeconomic exposure due to the addition of sea level rise to storm-surge hazard zones as one progresses south along the shoreline. Analysis of the 2050 comprehensive land use plan suggests efforts to manage future growth in residential, economic and infrastructure development in Sarasota County may increase societal exposure to hurricane storm-surge hazards.

  15. The effect of wave current interactions on the storm surge and inundation in Charleston Harbor during Hurricane Hugo 1989

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Lian; Liu, Huiqing; Peng, Machuan

    The effects of wave-current interactions on the storm surge and inundation induced by Hurricane Hugo in and around the Charleston Harbor and its adjacent coastal regions are examined by using a three-dimensional (3-D) wave-current coupled modeling system. The 3-D storm surge and inundation modeling component of the coupled system is based on the Princeton ocean model (POM), whereas the wave modeling component is based on the third-generation wave model, simulating waves nearshore (SWAN). The results indicate that the effects of wave-induced surface, bottom, and radiation stresses can separately or in combination produce significant changes in storm surge and inundation. The effects of waves vary spatially. In some areas, the contribution of waves to peak storm surge during Hurricane Hugo reached as high as 0.76 m which led to substantial changes in the inundation and drying areas simulated by the storm surge model.

  16. A Tsunami Ball Approach to Storm Surge and Inundation: Application to Hurricane Katrina, 2005

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steven N. Ward

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Most analyses of storm surge and inundation solve equations of continuity and momentum on fixed finite-difference/finite-element meshes. I develop a completely new approach that uses a momentum equation to accelerate bits or balls of water over variable depth topography. The thickness of the water column at any point equals the volume density of balls there. In addition to being more intuitive than traditional methods, the tsunami ball approach has several advantages. (a By tracking water balls of fixed volume, the continuity equation is satisfied automatically and the advection term in the momentum equation becomes unnecessary. (b The procedure is meshless in the finite-difference/finite-element sense. (c Tsunami balls care little if they find themselves in the ocean or inundating land. (d Tsunami ball calculations of storm surge can be done on a laptop computer. I demonstrate and calibrate the method by simulating storm surge and inundation around New Orleans, Louisiana caused by Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and by comparing model predictions with field observations. To illustrate the flexibility of the tsunami ball technique, I run two “What If” hurricane scenarios—Katrina over Savannah, Georgia and Katrina over Cape Cod, Massachusetts.

  17. A tale of two storms: Surges and sediment deposition from Hurricanes Andrew and Wilma in Florida’s southwest coast mangrove forests: Chapter 6G in Science and the storms-the USGS response to the hurricanes of 2005

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Thomas J.; Anderson, Gordon H.; Tiling, Ginger

    2007-01-01

    Hurricanes can be very different from each other. Here we examine the impacts that two hurricanes, Andrew and Wilma, had in terms of storm surge and sediment deposition on the southwest coast of Florida. Although Wilma was the weaker storm, it had the greater impact. Wilma had the higher storm surge over a larger area and deposited more sediment than did Andrew. This effect was most likely due to the size of Wilma's eye, which was four times larger than that of Andrew.

  18. Assessing and Mitigating Hurricane Storm Surge Risk in a Changing Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, N.; Shullman, E.; Xian, S.; Feng, K.

    2017-12-01

    Hurricanes have induced devastating storm surge flooding worldwide. The impacts of these storms may worsen in the coming decades because of rapid coastal development coupled with sea-level rise and possibly increasing storm activity due to climate change. Major advances in coastal flood risk management are urgently needed. We present an integrated dynamic risk analysis for flooding task (iDraft) framework to assess and manage coastal flood risk at the city or regional scale, considering integrated dynamic effects of storm climatology change, sea-level rise, and coastal development. We apply the framework to New York City. First, we combine climate-model projected storm surge climatology and sea-level rise with engineering- and social/economic-model projected coastal exposure and vulnerability to estimate the flood damage risk for the city over the 21st century. We derive temporally-varying risk measures such as the annual expected damage as well as temporally-integrated measures such as the present value of future losses. We also examine the individual and joint contributions to the changing risk of the three dynamic factors (i.e., sea-level rise, storm change, and coastal development). Then, we perform probabilistic cost-benefit analysis for various coastal flood risk mitigation strategies for the city. Specifically, we evaluate previously proposed mitigation measures, including elevating houses on the floodplain and constructing flood barriers at the coast, by comparing their estimated cost and probability distribution of the benefit (i.e., present value of avoided future losses). We also propose new design strategies, including optimal design (e.g., optimal house elevation) and adaptive design (e.g., flood protection levels that are designed to be modified over time in a dynamic and uncertain environment).

  19. Hurricane Sandy science plan: impacts of storm surge, including disturbed estuarine and bay hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caskie, Sarah A.

    2013-01-01

    Hurricane Sandy devastated some of the most heavily populated eastern coastal areas of the Nation. With a storm surge peaking at more than 19 feet, the powerful landscape-altering destruction of Hurricane Sandy is a stark reminder of why the Nation must become more resilient to coastal hazards. In response to this natural disaster, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) received a total of $41.2 million in supplemental appropriations from the Department of the Interior (DOI) to support response, recovery, and rebuilding efforts. These funds support a science plan that will provide critical scientific information necessary to inform management decisions for recovery of coastal communities, and aid in preparation for future natural hazards. This science plan is designed to coordinate continuing USGS activities with stakeholders and other agencies to improve data collection and analysis that will guide recovery and restoration efforts. The science plan is split into five distinct themes: • Coastal topography and bathymetry • Impacts to coastal beaches and barriers

  20. Directional analysis of the storm surge from Hurricane Sandy 2012, with applications to Charleston, New Orleans, and the Philippines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drews, Carl; Galarneau, Thomas J

    2015-01-01

    Hurricane Sandy in late October 2012 drove before it a storm surge that rose to 4.28 meters above mean lower low water at The Battery in lower Manhattan, and flooded the Hugh L. Carey automobile tunnel between Brooklyn and The Battery. This study examines the surge event in New York Harbor using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) atmospheric model and the Coupled-Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave- Sediment Transport/Regional Ocean Modeling System (COAWST/ROMS). We present a new technique using directional analysis to calculate and display maps of a coastline's potential for storm surge; these maps are constructed from wind fields blowing from eight fixed compass directions. This analysis approximates the surge observed during Hurricane Sandy. The directional analysis is then applied to surge events at Charleston, South Carolina, New Orleans, Louisiana, and Tacloban City, the Philippines. Emergency managers could use these directional maps to prepare their cities for an approaching storm, on planning horizons from days to years.

  1. Beyond Traditional Extreme Value Theory Through a Metastatistical Approach: Lessons Learned from Precipitation, Hurricanes, and Storm Surges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marani, M.; Zorzetto, E.; Hosseini, S. R.; Miniussi, A.; Scaioni, M.

    2017-12-01

    The Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution is widely adopted irrespective of the properties of the stochastic process generating the extreme events. However, GEV presents several limitations, both theoretical (asymptotic validity for a large number of events/year or hypothesis of Poisson occurrences of Generalized Pareto events), and practical (fitting uses just yearly maxima or a few values above a high threshold). Here we describe the Metastatistical Extreme Value Distribution (MEVD, Marani & Ignaccolo, 2015), which relaxes asymptotic or Poisson/GPD assumptions and makes use of all available observations. We then illustrate the flexibility of the MEVD by applying it to daily precipitation, hurricane intensity, and storm surge magnitude. Application to daily rainfall from a global raingauge network shows that MEVD estimates are 50% more accurate than those from GEV when the recurrence interval of interest is much greater than the observational period. This makes MEVD suited for application to satellite rainfall observations ( 20 yrs length). Use of MEVD on TRMM data yields extreme event patterns that are in better agreement with surface observations than corresponding GEV estimates.Applied to the HURDAT2 Atlantic hurricane intensity dataset, MEVD significantly outperforms GEV estimates of extreme hurricanes. Interestingly, the Generalized Pareto distribution used for "ordinary" hurricane intensity points to the existence of a maximum limit wind speed that is significantly smaller than corresponding physically-based estimates. Finally, we applied the MEVD approach to water levels generated by tidal fluctuations and storm surges at a set of coastal sites spanning different storm-surge regimes. MEVD yields accurate estimates of large quantiles and inferences on tail thickness (fat vs. thin) of the underlying distribution of "ordinary" surges. In summary, the MEVD approach presents a number of theoretical and practical advantages, and outperforms traditional

  2. Storm Surge and Wave Impact of Low-Probability Hurricanes on the Lower Delaware Bay—Calibration and Application

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    Mehrdad Salehi

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Hurricanes pose major threats to coastal communities and sensitive infrastructure, including nuclear power plants, located in the vicinity of hurricane-prone coastal regions. This study focuses on evaluating the storm surge and wave impact of low-probability hurricanes on the lower Delaware Bay using the Delft3D dynamically coupled wave and flow model. The model comprised Overall and Nested domains. The Overall model domain encompassed portions of the Atlantic Ocean, Delaware Bay, and Chesapeake Bay. The two-level Nested model domains encompassed the Delaware Estuary, its floodplain, and a portion of the continental shelf. Low-probability hurricanes are critical considerations in designing and licensing of new nuclear power plants as well as in establishing mitigating strategies for existing power facilities and other infrastructure types. The philosophy behind low-probability hurricane modeling is to establish reasonable water surface elevation and wave characteristics that have very low to no probability of being exceeded in the region. The area of interest (AOI is located on the west bank of Delaware Bay, almost 16 miles upstream of its mouth. The model was first calibrated for Hurricane Isabel (2003 and then applied to synthetic hurricanes with very low probability of occurrence to establish the storm surge envelope at the AOI. The model calibration results agreed reasonably well with field observations of water surface elevation, wind velocity, wave height, and wave period. A range of meteorological, storm track direction, and storm bearing parameters that produce the highest sustained wind speeds were estimated using the National Weather Service (NWS methodology and applied to the model. Simulations resulted in a maximum stillwater elevation and wave height of 7.5 m NAVD88 and 2.5 m, respectively, at the AOI. Comparison of results with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, North Atlantic Coastal Comprehensive Study (USACE-NACCS storm surge

  3. Hindcasting of Storm Surges, Currents, and Waves at Lower Delaware Bay during Hurricane Isabel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salehi, M.

    2017-12-01

    Hurricanes are a major threat to coastal communities and infrastructures including nuclear power plants located in low-lying coastal zones. In response, their sensitive elements should be protected by smart design to withstand against drastic impact of such natural phenomena. Accurate and reliable estimate of hurricane attributes is the first step to that effort. Numerical models have extensively grown over the past few years and are effective tools in modeling large scale natural events such as hurricane. The impact of low probability hurricanes on the lower Delaware Bay is investigated using dynamically coupled meteorological, hydrodynamic, and wave components of Delft3D software. Efforts are made to significantly reduce the computational overburden of performing such analysis for the industry, yet keeping the same level of accuracy at the area of study (AOS). The model is comprised of overall and nested domains. The overall model domain includes portion of Atlantic Ocean, Delaware, and Chesapeake bays. The nested model domain includes Delaware Bay, its floodplain, and portion of the continental shelf. This study is portion of a larger modeling effort to study the impact of low probability hurricanes on sensitive infrastructures located at the coastal zones prone to hurricane activity. The AOS is located on the east bank of Delaware Bay almost 16 miles upstream of its mouth. Model generated wind speed, significant wave height, water surface elevation, and current are calibrated for hurricane Isabel (2003). The model calibration results agreed reasonably well with field observations. Furthermore, sensitivity of surge and wave responses to various hurricane parameters was tested. In line with findings from other researchers, accuracy of wind field played a major role in hindcasting the hurricane attributes.

  4. Nonlinear terms in storm surge predictions: Effect of tide and shelf geometry with case study from Hurricane Rita

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rego, JoãO. L.; Li, Chunyan

    2010-06-01

    This study applied the finite volume coastal ocean model (FVCOM) to the storm surge induced by Hurricane Rita along the Louisiana-Texas coast. The model was calibrated for tides and validated with observed water levels. Peak water levels were shown to be lower than expected for a landfall at high tide. For low- and high-tide landfalls, nonlinear effects due to tide-surge coupling were constructive and destructive to total storm tide, respectively, and their magnitude reached up to 70% of the tidal amplitude in the Rita application. Tide-surge interaction was further examined using a standard hurricane under idealized scenarios to evaluate the effects of various shelf geometries, tides, and landfall timings (relative to tide). Nonlinearity was important between landfall position and locations within 2.5 × radius of maximum winds. On an idealized wide continental shelf, nonlinear effects reached up to 80% of the tidal amplitude with an S2 tide and up to 47% with a K1 tide. Increasing average depths by 4 m reduced nonlinear effects to 41% of the tidal amplitude; increasing the slope by a factor of 3 produced nonlinearities of just 26% of tide (both with a K1 tide). The nonlinear effect was greatest for landfalls at low tide, followed by landfalls at high tide and then by landfalls at midebb or midflood.

  5. The Storm Surge and Sub-Grid Inundation Modeling in New York City during Hurricane Sandy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Harry V. Wang

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Hurricane Sandy inflicted heavy damage in New York City and the New Jersey coast as the second costliest storm in history. A large-scale, unstructured grid storm tide model, Semi-implicit Eulerian Lagrangian Finite Element (SELFE, was used to hindcast water level variation during Hurricane Sandy in the mid-Atlantic portion of the U.S. East Coast. The model was forced by eight tidal constituents at the model’s open boundary, 1500 km away from the coast, and the wind and pressure fields from atmospheric model Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS provided by Weatherflow Inc. The comparisons of the modeled storm tide with the NOAA gauge stations from Montauk, NY, Long Island Sound, encompassing New York Harbor, Atlantic City, NJ, to Duck, NC, were in good agreement, with an overall root mean square error and relative error in the order of 15–20 cm and 5%–7%, respectively. Furthermore, using large-scale model outputs as the boundary conditions, a separate sub-grid model that incorporates LIDAR data for the major portion of the New York City was also set up to investigate the detailed inundation process. The model results compared favorably with USGS’ Hurricane Sandy Mapper database in terms of its timing, local inundation area, and the depth of the flooding water. The street-level inundation with water bypassing the city building was created and the maximum extent of horizontal inundation was calculated, which was within 30 m of the data-derived estimate by USGS.

  6. Reconnaissance level study Mississippi storm surge barrier

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Ledden, M.; Lansen, A.J.; De Ridder, H.A.J.; Edge, B.

    2012-01-01

    This paper reports a reconnaissance level study of a storm surge barrier in the Mississippi River. Historical hurricanes have shown storm surge of several meters along the Mississippi River levees up to and upstream of New Orleans. Future changes due to sea level rise and subsidence will further

  7. Hurricane Matthew (2016) and its Storm Surge Inundation under Global Warming Scenarios: Application of an Interactively Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jisan, M. A.; Bao, S.; Pietrafesa, L.; Pullen, J.

    2017-12-01

    An interactively coupled atmosphere-ocean model was used to investigate the impacts of future ocean warming, both at the surface and the layers below, on the track and intensity of a hurricane and its associated storm surge and inundation. The category-5 hurricane Matthew (2016), which made landfall on the South Carolina coast of the United States, was used for the case study. Future ocean temperature changes and sea level rise (SLR) were estimated based on the projection of Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)'s Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5. After being validated with the present-day observational data, the model was applied to simulate the changes in track, intensity, storm surge and inundation that Hurricane Matthew would cause under future climate change scenarios. It was found that a significant increase in hurricane intensity, storm surge water level, and inundation area for Hurricane Matthew under future ocean warming and SLR scenarios. For example, under the RCP 8.5 scenario, the maximum wind speed would increase by 17 knots (14.2%), the minimum sea level pressure would decrease by 26 hPa (2.85%), and the inundated area would increase by 401 km2 (123%). By including the effect of SLR for the middle-21st-century scenario, the inundated area will further increase by up to 49.6%. The increase in the hurricane intensity and the inundated area was also found for the RCP 2.6 scenario. The response of sea surface temperature was analyzed to investigate the change in intensity. A comparison was made between the impacts when only the sea surface warming is considered versus when both the sea surface and the underneath layers are considered. These results showed that even without the effect of SLR, the storm surge level and the inundated area would be higher due to the increased hurricane intensity under the influence of the future warmer ocean temperature. The coupled effect of ocean warming and SLR would cause the

  8. A geospatial dataset for U.S. hurricane storm surge and sea-level rise vulnerability: Development and case study applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Megan C. Maloney

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The consequences of future sea-level rise for coastal communities are a priority concern arising from anthropogenic climate change. Here, previously published methods are scaled up in order to undertake a first pass assessment of exposure to hurricane storm surge and sea-level rise for the U.S. Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic coasts. Sea-level rise scenarios ranging from +0.50 to +0.82 m by 2100 increased estimates of the area exposed to inundation by 4–13% and 7–20%, respectively, among different Saffir-Simpson hurricane intensity categories. Potential applications of these hazard layers for vulnerability assessment are demonstrated with two contrasting case studies: potential exposure of current energy infrastructure in the U.S. Southeast and exposure of current and future housing along both the Gulf and Atlantic Coasts. Estimates of the number of Southeast electricity generation facilities potentially exposed to hurricane storm surge ranged from 69 to 291 for category 1 and category 5 storms, respectively. Sea-level rise increased the number of exposed facilities by 6–60%, depending on the sea-level rise scenario and the intensity of the hurricane under consideration. Meanwhile, estimates of the number of housing units currently exposed to hurricane storm surge ranged from 4.1 to 9.4 million for category 1 and category 4 storms, respectively, while exposure for category 5 storms was estimated at 7.1 million due to the absence of landfalling category 5 hurricanes in the New England region. Housing exposure was projected to increase 83–230% by 2100 among different sea-level rise and housing scenarios, with the majority of this increase attributed to future housing development. These case studies highlight the utility of geospatial hazard information for national-scale coastal exposure or vulnerability assessment as well as the importance of future socioeconomic development in the assessment of coastal vulnerability.

  9. Storm surge climatology report

    OpenAIRE

    Horsburgh, Kevin; Williams, Joanne; Cussack, Caroline

    2017-01-01

    Any increase in flood frequency or severity due to sea level rise or changes in storminess would adversely impact society. It is crucial to understand the physical drivers of extreme storm surges to have confidence in the datasets used for extreme sea level statistics. We will refine and improve methods to the estimation of extreme sea levels around Europe and more widely. We will do so by developing a comprehensive world picture of storm surge distribution (including extremes) for both tropi...

  10. Regional-scale impact of storm surges on groundwaters of Texas, Florida and Puerto Rico after 2017 hurricanes Harvey, Irma, Jose, Maria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sellier, W. H.; Dürr, H. H.

    2017-12-01

    Hurricanes and related storm surges have devastating effects on near-shore infrastructure and above-ground installations. They also heavily impact groundwater resources, with potentially millions of people dependant on these resources as a freshwater source. Destructions of casings and direct incursions of saline and/or polluted waters have been widely observed. It is uncertain how extensive the effects are on underground water systems, especially in limestone karst areas such as Florida and Puerto Rico. Here, we report regional-scale water level changes in groundwater systems of Texas, Florida and Puerto Rico for the 2017 Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, Jose and Maria. We collected regional scale data from the USGS Waterdata portal. Puerto Rico shows the strongest increase in groundwater levels in wells during Hurricane Maria, with less reaction for the preceding storms Irma and Jose. Increases in water levels range from 0.5 to 11m, with maximum storm surges in Puerto Rico around 3m. These wells are located throughout Puerto Rico, on the coast and inland. In Florida, most wells that show a response during Hurricane Irma are located in the Miami region. Wells located on the west coast show smaller responses with the exception of one well located directly on Hurricane Irma's track. These wells show an increase of 0.2 to 1.7m. In Texas, wells located in proximity to Hurricane Harvey's track show an increase in water level. The effect of groundwater level increases is not limited to the Texas coast, but inland as well. An increase between 0.03 and 2.9m is seen. Storm surges for both Florida and Texas have ranged from 1.8-3.7m maximum. We discuss the findings in the context of local and regional geology and hydrogeology (presence of connected aquifer systems, faulting, presence of carbonate/karst systems etc.).

  11. Dynamic simulation and numerical analysis of hurricane storm surge under sea level rise with geomorphologic changes along the northern Gulf of Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bilskie, Matthew V.; Hagen, S.C.; Alizad, K.A.; Medeiros, S.C.; Passeri, Davina L.; Needham, H.F.; Cox, A.

    2016-01-01

    This work outlines a dynamic modeling framework to examine the effects of global climate change, and sea level rise (SLR) in particular, on tropical cyclone-driven storm surge inundation. The methodology, applied across the northern Gulf of Mexico, adapts a present day large-domain, high resolution, tide, wind-wave, and hurricane storm surge model to characterize the potential outlook of the coastal landscape under four SLR scenarios for the year 2100. The modifications include shoreline and barrier island morphology, marsh migration, and land use land cover change. Hydrodynamics of 10 historic hurricanes were simulated through each of the five model configurations (present day and four SLR scenarios). Under SLR, the total inundated land area increased by 87% and developed and agricultural lands by 138% and 189%, respectively. Peak surge increased by as much as 1 m above the applied SLR in some areas, and other regions were subject to a reduction in peak surge, with respect to the applied SLR, indicating a nonlinear response. Analysis of time-series water surface elevation suggests the interaction between SLR and storm surge is nonlinear in time; SLR increased the time of inundation and caused an earlier arrival of the peak surge, which cannot be addressed using a static (“bathtub”) modeling framework. This work supports the paradigm shift to using a dynamic modeling framework to examine the effects of global climate change on coastal inundation. The outcomes have broad implications and ultimately support a better holistic understanding of the coastal system and aid restoration and long-term coastal sustainability.

  12. Modeling the Effects of Storm Surge from Hurricane Jeanne on Saltwater Intrusion into the Surficial Aquifer, East-Central Florida (USA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiao, H.; Wang, D.; Hagen, S. C.; Medeiros, S. C.; Hall, C. R.

    2017-12-01

    Saltwater intrusion (SWI) that has been widely recognized as a detrimental issue causing the deterioration of coastal aquifer water quality and degradation of coastal ecosystems. While it is widely recognized that SWI is exacerbated worldwide due to global sea-level rise, we show that increased SWI from tropical cyclones under climate change is also a concern. In the Cape Canaveral Barrier Island Complex (CCBIC) located in east-central Florida, the salinity level of the surficial aquifer is of great importance to maintain a bio-diverse ecosystem and to support the survival of various vegetation species. Climate change induced SWI into the surficial aquifer can lead to reduction of freshwater storage and alteration of the distribution and productivity of vegetation communities. In this study, a three-dimensional variable-density SEAWAT model is developed and calibrated to investigate the spatial and temporal variation of salinity level in the surficial aquifer of CCBIC. We link the SEAWAT model to surge model data to examine the effects of storm surge from Hurricane Jeanne. Simulation results indicate that the surficial aquifer salinity level increases significantly right after the occurrence of storm surge because of high aquifer permeability and rapid infiltration and diffusion of the overtopping saltwater, while the surficial aquifer salinity level begins to decrease after the fresh groundwater recharge from the storm's rainfall. The tropical storm precipitation generates an effective hydraulic barrier further impeding SWI and providing seaward freshwater discharge for saltwater dilution and flushing. To counteract the catastrophic effects of storm surge, this natural remediation process may take at least 15-20 years or even several decades. These simulation results contribute to ongoing research focusing on forecasting regional vegetation community responses to climate change, and are expected to provide a useful reference for climate change adaptation planning

  13. Adaptive mesh refinement for storm surge

    KAUST Repository

    Mandli, Kyle T.; Dawson, Clint N.

    2014-01-01

    An approach to utilizing adaptive mesh refinement algorithms for storm surge modeling is proposed. Currently numerical models exist that can resolve the details of coastal regions but are often too costly to be run in an ensemble forecasting framework without significant computing resources. The application of adaptive mesh refinement algorithms substantially lowers the computational cost of a storm surge model run while retaining much of the desired coastal resolution. The approach presented is implemented in the GeoClaw framework and compared to ADCIRC for Hurricane Ike along with observed tide gauge data and the computational cost of each model run. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd.

  14. Adaptive mesh refinement for storm surge

    KAUST Repository

    Mandli, Kyle T.

    2014-03-01

    An approach to utilizing adaptive mesh refinement algorithms for storm surge modeling is proposed. Currently numerical models exist that can resolve the details of coastal regions but are often too costly to be run in an ensemble forecasting framework without significant computing resources. The application of adaptive mesh refinement algorithms substantially lowers the computational cost of a storm surge model run while retaining much of the desired coastal resolution. The approach presented is implemented in the GeoClaw framework and compared to ADCIRC for Hurricane Ike along with observed tide gauge data and the computational cost of each model run. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd.

  15. Analysis of Storm Surge in Hong Kong

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kao, W. H.

    2017-12-01

    A storm surge is a type of coastal flood that is caused by low-pressure systems such as tropical cyclones. Storm surges caused by tropical cyclones can be very powerful and damaging, as they can flood coastal areas, and even destroy infrastructure in serious cases. Some serious cases of storm surges leading to more than thousands of deaths include Hurricane Katrina (2005) in New Orleans and Typhoon Haiyan (2013) in Philippines. Hong Kong is a coastal city that is prone to tropical cyclones, having an average of 5-6 tropical cyclones entering 500km range of Hong Kong per year. Storm surges have seriously damaged Hong Kong in the past, causing more than 100 deaths by Typhoon Wanda (1962), and leading to serious damage to Tai O and Cheung Chau by Typhoon Hagupit (2008). To prevent economic damage and casualties from storm surges, accurately predicting the height of storm surges and giving timely warnings to citizens is very important. In this project, I will be analyzing how different factors affect the height of storm surge, mainly using data from Hong Kong. These factors include the windspeed in Hong Kong, the atmospheric pressure in Hong Kong, the moon phase, the wind direction, the intensity of the tropical cyclone, distance between the tropical cyclone and Hong Kong, the direction of the tropical cyclone relative to Hong Kong, the speed of movement of the tropical cyclone and more. My findings will also be compared with cases from other places, to see if my findings also apply for other places.

  16. Numerical Evaluation of Storm Surge Indices for Public Advisory Purposes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bass, B.; Bedient, P. B.; Dawson, C.; Proft, J.

    2016-12-01

    After the devastating hurricane season of 2005, shortcomings with the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale's (SSHS) ability to characterize a tropical cyclones potential to generate storm surge became widely apparent. As a result, several alternative surge indices were proposed to replace the SSHS, including Powell and Reinhold's Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE) factor, Kantha's Hurricane Surge Index (HSI), and Irish and Resio's Surge Scale (SS). Of the previous, the IKE factor is the only surge index to-date that truly captures a tropical cyclones integrated intensity, size, and wind field distribution. However, since the IKE factor was proposed in 2007, an accurate assessment of this surge index has not been performed. This study provides the first quantitative evaluation of the IKEs ability to serve as a predictor of a tropical cyclones potential surge impacts as compared to other alternative surge indices. Using the tightly coupled ADvanced CIRCulation and Simulating WAves Nearshore models, the surge and wave responses of Hurricane Ike (2008) and 78 synthetic tropical cyclones were evaluated against the SSHS, IKE, HSI and SS. Results along the upper TX coast of the Gulf of Mexico demonstrate that the HSI performs best in capturing the peak surge response of a tropical cyclone, while the IKE accounting for winds greater than tropical storm intensity (IKETS) provides the most accurate estimate of a tropical cyclones regional surge impacts. These results demonstrate that the appropriate selection of a surge index ultimately depends on what information is of interest to be conveyed to the public and/or scientific community.

  17. Toward an integrated storm surge application: ESA Storm Surge project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Boram; Donlon, Craig; Arino, Olivier

    2010-05-01

    Storm surges and their associated coastal inundation are major coastal marine hazards, both in tropical and extra-tropical areas. As sea level rises due to climate change, the impact of storm surges and associated extreme flooding may increase in low-lying countries and harbour cities. Of the 33 world cities predicted to have at least 8 million people by 2015, at least 21 of them are coastal including 8 of the 10 largest. They are highly vulnerable to coastal hazards including storm surges. Coastal inundation forecasting and warning systems depend on the crosscutting cooperation of different scientific disciplines and user communities. An integrated approach to storm surge, wave, sea-level and flood forecasting offers an optimal strategy for building improved operational forecasts and warnings capability for coastal inundation. The Earth Observation (EO) information from satellites has demonstrated high potential to enhanced coastal hazard monitoring, analysis, and forecasting; the GOCE geoid data can help calculating accurate positions of tide gauge stations within the GLOSS network. ASAR images has demonstrated usefulness in analysing hydrological situation in coastal zones with timely manner, when hazardous events occur. Wind speed and direction, which is the key parameters for storm surge forecasting and hindcasting, can be derived by using scatterometer data. The current issue is, although great deal of useful EO information and application tools exist, that sufficient user information on EO data availability is missing and that easy access supported by user applications and documentation is highly required. Clear documentation on the user requirements in support of improved storm surge forecasting and risk assessment is also needed at the present. The paper primarily addresses the requirements for data, models/technologies, and operational skills, based on the results from the recent Scientific and Technical Symposium on Storm Surges (www

  18. Coastal emergency managers' preferences for storm surge forecast communication.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morrow, Betty Hearn; Lazo, Jeffrey K

    2014-01-01

    Storm surge, the most deadly hazard associated with tropical and extratropical cyclones, is the basis for most evacuation decisions by authorities. One factor believed to be associated with evacuation noncompliance is a lack of understanding of storm surge. To address this problem, federal agencies responsible for cyclone forecasts are seeking more effective ways of communicating storm surge threat. To inform this process, they are engaging various partners in the forecast and warning process.This project focuses on emergency managers. Fifty-three emergency managers (EMs) from the Gulf and lower Atlantic coasts were surveyed to elicit their experience with, sources of, and preferences for storm surge information. The emergency managers-who are well seasoned in hurricane response and generally rate the surge risk in their coastal areas above average or extremely high-listed storm surge as their major concern with respect to hurricanes. They reported a general lack of public awareness about surge. Overall they support new ways to convey the potential danger to the public, including the issuance of separate storm surge watches and warnings, and the expression of surge heights using feet above ground level. These EMs would like more maps, graphics, and visual materials for use in communicating with the public. An important concern is the timing of surge forecasts-whether they receive them early enough to be useful in their evacuation decisions.

  19. Observing Storm Surges from Space: A New Opportunity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Guoqi; Ma, Zhimin; Chen, Dake; de Young, Brad; Chen, Nancy

    2013-04-01

    Coastal tide gauges can be used to monitor variations of a storm surge along the coast, but not in the cross-shelf direction. As a result, the cross-shelf structure of a storm surge has rarely been observed. In this study we focus on Hurricane Igor-induced storm surge off Newfoundland, Canada. Altimetric observations at about 2:30, September 22, 2010 UTC (hours after the passage of Hurricane Igor) reveal prominent cross-shelf variation of sea surface height during the storm passage, including a large nearshore slope and a mid-shelf depression. A significant coastal surge of 1 m derived from satellite altimetry is found to be consistent with tide-gauge measurements at nearby St. John's station. The post-storm sea level variations at St. John's and Argentia are argued to be associated with free equatorward-propagating continental shelf waves (with phase speeds of 11-13 m/s), generated along the northeast Newfoundland coast hours after the storm moved away from St. John's. The cross-shelf e-folding scale of the shelf wave was estimated to be ~100 km. We further show approximate agreement of altimetric and tide-gauge observations in the Gulf of Mexico during Hurricane Katrina (2005) and Isaac (2012). The study for the first time in the literature shows the robustness of satellite altimetry to observe storm surges, complementing tide-gauge observations for the analysis of storm surge characteristics and for the validation and improvement of storm surge models.

  20. Modeling and simulation of storm surge on Staten Island to understand inundation mitigation strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kress, Michael E.; Benimoff, Alan I.; Fritz, William J.; Thatcher, Cindy A.; Blanton, Brian O.; Dzedzits, Eugene

    2016-01-01

    Hurricane Sandy made landfall on October 29, 2012, near Brigantine, New Jersey, and had a transformative impact on Staten Island and the New York Metropolitan area. Of the 43 New York City fatalities, 23 occurred on Staten Island. The borough, with a population of approximately 500,000, experienced some of the most devastating impacts of the storm. Since Hurricane Sandy, protective dunes have been constructed on the southeast shore of Staten Island. ADCIRC+SWAN model simulations run on The City University of New York's Cray XE6M, housed at the College of Staten Island, using updated topographic data show that the coast of Staten Island is still susceptible to tidal surge similar to those generated by Hurricane Sandy. Sandy hindcast simulations of storm surges focusing on Staten Island are in good agreement with observed storm tide measurements. Model results calculated from fine-scaled and coarse-scaled computational grids demonstrate that finer grids better resolve small differences in the topography of critical hydraulic control structures, which affect storm surge inundation levels. The storm surge simulations, based on post-storm topography obtained from high-resolution lidar, provide much-needed information to understand Staten Island's changing vulnerability to storm surge inundation. The results of fine-scale storm surge simulations can be used to inform efforts to improve resiliency to future storms. For example, protective barriers contain planned gaps in the dunes to provide for beach access that may inadvertently increase the vulnerability of the area.

  1. Vulnerability of Coastal Communities from Storm Surge and Flood Disasters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bathi, Jejal Reddy; Das, Himangshu S.

    2016-01-01

    Disasters in the form of coastal storms and hurricanes can be very destructive. Preparing for anticipated effects of such disasters can help reduce the public health and economic burden. Identifying vulnerable population groups can help prioritize resources for the most needed communities. This paper presents a quantitative framework for vulnerability measurement that incorporates both socioeconomic and flood inundation vulnerability. The approach is demonstrated for three coastal communities in Mississippi with census tracts being the study unit. The vulnerability results are illustrated as thematic maps for easy usage by planners and emergency responders to assist in prioritizing their actions to vulnerable populations during storm surge and flood disasters. PMID:26907313

  2. Simulating Storm Surge Impacts with a Coupled Atmosphere-Inundation Model with Varying Meteorological Forcing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandra N. Ramos Valle

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Storm surge events have the potential to cause devastating damage to coastal communities. The magnitude of their impacts highlights the need for increased accuracy and real-time forecasting and predictability of storm surge. In this study, we assess two meteorological forcing configurations to hindcast the storm surge of Hurricane Sandy, and ultimately support the improvement of storm surge forecasts. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF model is coupled to the ADvanced CIRCulation Model (ADCIRC to determine water elevations. We perform four coupled simulations and compare storm surge estimates resulting from the use of a parametric vortex model and a full-physics atmospheric model. One simulation is forced with track-based meteorological data calculated from WRF, while three simulations are forced with the full wind and pressure field outputs from WRF simulations of varying resolutions. Experiments were compared to an ADCIRC simulation forced by National Hurricane Center best track data, as well as to station observations. Our results indicated that given accurate meteorological best track data, a parametric vortex model can accurately forecast maximum water elevations, improving upon the use of a full-physics coupled atmospheric-surge model. In the absence of a best track, atmospheric forcing in the form of full wind and pressure field from a high-resolution atmospheric model simulation prove reliable for storm surge forecasting.

  3. Impacts of Hurricane Rita on the beaches of western Louisiana: Chapter 5D in Science and the storms-the USGS response to the hurricanes of 2005

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stockdon, Hilary F.; Fauver, Laura A.; Sallenger,, Asbury H.; Wright, C. Wayne

    2007-01-01

    Hurricane Rita made landfall as a category 3 storm in western Louisiana in late September 2005, 1 month following Hurricane Katrina's devastating landfall in the eastern part of the State. Large waves and storm surge inundated the lowelevation coastline, destroying many communities and causing extensive coastal change including beach, dune, and marsh erosion.

  4. Coastal Storm Surge Analysis: Storm Forcing. Report 3. Intermediate Submission No. 1.3

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-07-01

    The storm surge study considers both tropical storms and extratropical cyclones for determination of return period storm surge elevations. The...Appendix B: Extratropical Cyclone Selection in Support of FEMA Region III Storm Surge Modeling...stations applied in the storm selection process. ............................................. 56  Table B2. Extratropical cyclones selected from the

  5. Observations of Building Performance under Combined Wind and Surge Loading from Hurricane Harvey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lombardo, F.; Roueche, D. B.; Krupar, R. J.; Smith, D. J.; Soto, M. G.

    2017-12-01

    Hurricane Harvey struck the Texas coastline on August 25, 2017, as a Category 4 hurricane - the first major hurricane to reach the US in twelve years. Wind gusts over 130 mph and storm surge as high as 12.5 ft caused widespread damage to buildings and critical infrastructure in coastal communities including Rockport, Fulton, Port Aransas and Aransas Pass. This study presents the methodology and preliminary observations of a coordinated response effort to document residential building performance under wind and storm surge loading. Over a twelve day survey period the study team assessed the performance of more than 1,000 individual, geo-located residential buildings. Assessments were logged via a smartphone application to facilitate rapid collection and collation of geotagged photographs, building attributes and structural details, and structural damage observations. Detailed assessments were also made of hazard intensity, specifically storm surge heights and both wind speed and direction indicators. Preliminary observations and findings will be presented, showing strong gradients in damage between inland and coastal regions of the affected areas that may be due in part to enhanced individual loading effects of wind and storm surge and potentially joint-hazard loading effects. Contributing factors to the many cases of disproportionate damage observed in close proximity will also be discussed. Ongoing efforts to relate building damage to near-surface hazard measurements (e.g., radar, anemometry) in close proximity will also be described.

  6. Coastal Storm Surge Analysis: Storm Surge Results. Report 5: Intermediate Submission No. 3

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-11-01

    Vickery, P., D. Wadhera, A. Cox, V. Cardone , J. Hanson, and B. Blanton. 2012. Coastal storm surge analysis: Storm forcing (Intermediate Submission No...CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) Jeffrey L. Hanson, Michael F. Forte, Brian Blanton

  7. Hybrid vs Adaptive Ensemble Kalman Filtering for Storm Surge Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Altaf, M. U.; Raboudi, N.; Gharamti, M. E.; Dawson, C.; McCabe, M. F.; Hoteit, I.

    2014-12-01

    Recent storm surge events due to Hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico have motivated the efforts to accurately forecast water levels. Toward this goal, a parallel architecture has been implemented based on a high resolution storm surge model, ADCIRC. However the accuracy of the model notably depends on the quality and the recentness of the input data (mainly winds and bathymetry), model parameters (e.g. wind and bottom drag coefficients), and the resolution of the model grid. Given all these uncertainties in the system, the challenge is to build an efficient prediction system capable of providing accurate forecasts enough ahead of time for the authorities to evacuate the areas at risk. We have developed an ensemble-based data assimilation system to frequently assimilate available data into the ADCIRC model in order to improve the accuracy of the model. In this contribution we study and analyze the performances of different ensemble Kalman filter methodologies for efficient short-range storm surge forecasting, the aim being to produce the most accurate forecasts at the lowest possible computing time. Using Hurricane Ike meteorological data to force the ADCIRC model over a domain including the Gulf of Mexico coastline, we implement and compare the forecasts of the standard EnKF, the hybrid EnKF and an adaptive EnKF. The last two schemes have been introduced as efficient tools for enhancing the behavior of the EnKF when implemented with small ensembles by exploiting information from a static background covariance matrix. Covariance inflation and localization are implemented in all these filters. Our results suggest that both the hybrid and the adaptive approach provide significantly better forecasts than those resulting from the standard EnKF, even when implemented with much smaller ensembles.

  8. The Effect of Coastal Development on Storm Surge Flooding in Biscayne Bay, Florida, USA (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, K.; Liu, H.; Li, Y.

    2013-12-01

    Barrier islands and associated bays along the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts are a favorite place for both living and visiting. Many of them are vulnerable to storm surge flooding because of low elevations and constantly being subjected to the impacts of storms. The population increase and urban development along the barrier coast have altered the shoreline configuration, resulting in a dramatic change in the coastal flooding pattern in some areas. Here we present such a case based on numerical simulations of storm surge flooding caused by the1926 hurricane in the densely populated area surrounding Biscayne Bay in Miami, Florida. The construction of harbor and navigation channels, and the development of real estate and the roads connecting islands along Biscayne Bay have changed the geometry of Biscayne Bay since 1910s. Storm surge simulations show that the Port of Miami and Dodge Island constructed by human after 1950 play an important role in changing storm surge inundation pattern along Biscayne Bay. Dodge Island enhances storm surge and increases inundation in the area south of the island, especially at the mouth of Miami River (Downtown of Miami), and reduces storm surge flooding in the area north of the island, especially in Miami Beach. If the Hurricane Miami of 1926 happened today, the flooding area would be reduced by 55% and 20% in the Miami Beach and North Miami areas, respectively. Consequently, it would prevent 400 million of property and 10 thousand people from surge flooding according to 2010 U.S census and 2007 property tax data. Meanwhile, storm water would penetrate further inland south of Dodge Island and increase the flooding area by 25% in the Miami River and Downtown Miami areas. As a result, 200 million of property and five thousand people would be impacted by storm surge.

  9. Nonlinear chaotic model for predicting storm surges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Siek

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper addresses the use of the methods of nonlinear dynamics and chaos theory for building a predictive chaotic model from time series. The chaotic model predictions are made by the adaptive local models based on the dynamical neighbors found in the reconstructed phase space of the observables. We implemented the univariate and multivariate chaotic models with direct and multi-steps prediction techniques and optimized these models using an exhaustive search method. The built models were tested for predicting storm surge dynamics for different stormy conditions in the North Sea, and are compared to neural network models. The results show that the chaotic models can generally provide reliable and accurate short-term storm surge predictions.

  10. Automating Flood Hazard Mapping Methods for Near Real-time Storm Surge Inundation and Vulnerability Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weigel, A. M.; Griffin, R.; Gallagher, D.

    2015-12-01

    Storm surge has enough destructive power to damage buildings and infrastructure, erode beaches, and threaten human life across large geographic areas, hence posing the greatest threat of all the hurricane hazards. The United States Gulf of Mexico has proven vulnerable to hurricanes as it has been hit by some of the most destructive hurricanes on record. With projected rises in sea level and increases in hurricane activity, there is a need to better understand the associated risks for disaster mitigation, preparedness, and response. GIS has become a critical tool in enhancing disaster planning, risk assessment, and emergency response by communicating spatial information through a multi-layer approach. However, there is a need for a near real-time method of identifying areas with a high risk of being impacted by storm surge. Research was conducted alongside Baron, a private industry weather enterprise, to facilitate automated modeling and visualization of storm surge inundation and vulnerability on a near real-time basis. This research successfully automated current flood hazard mapping techniques using a GIS framework written in a Python programming environment, and displayed resulting data through an Application Program Interface (API). Data used for this methodology included high resolution topography, NOAA Probabilistic Surge model outputs parsed from Rich Site Summary (RSS) feeds, and the NOAA Census tract level Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI). The development process required extensive data processing and management to provide high resolution visualizations of potential flooding and population vulnerability in a timely manner. The accuracy of the developed methodology was assessed using Hurricane Isaac as a case study, which through a USGS and NOAA partnership, contained ample data for statistical analysis. This research successfully created a fully automated, near real-time method for mapping high resolution storm surge inundation and vulnerability for the

  11. Storm surge and wave simulations in the Gulf of Mexico using a consistent drag relation for atmospheric and storm surge models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Vatvani

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available To simulate winds and water levels, numerical weather prediction (NWP and storm surge models generally use the traditional bulk relation for wind stress, which is characterized by a wind drag coefficient. A still commonly used drag coefficient in those models, some of them were developed in the past, is based on a relation, according to which the magnitude of the coefficient is either constant or increases monotonically with increasing surface wind speed (Bender, 2007; Kim et al., 2008; Kohno and Higaki, 2006. The NWP and surge models are often tuned independently from each other in order to obtain good results. Observations have indicated that the magnitude of the drag coefficient levels off at a wind speed of about 30 m s−1, and then decreases with further increase of the wind speed. Above a wind speed of approximately 30 m s−1, the stress above the air-sea interface starts to saturate. To represent the reducing and levelling off of the drag coefficient, the original Charnock drag formulation has been extended with a correction term.

    In line with the above, the Delft3D storm surge model is tested using both Charnock's and improved Makin's wind drag parameterization to evaluate the improvements on the storm surge model results, with and without inclusion of the wave effects. The effect of waves on storm surge is included by simultaneously simulating waves with the SWAN model on identical model grids in a coupled mode. However, the results presented here will focus on the storm surge results that include the wave effects.

    The runs were carried out in the Gulf of Mexico for Katrina and Ivan hurricane events. The storm surge model was initially forced with H*wind data (Powell et al., 2010 to test the effect of the Makin's wind drag parameterization on the storm surge model separately. The computed wind, water levels and waves are subsequently compared with observation data. Based on the good

  12. Rapid wave and storm surge warning system for tropical cyclones in Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Appendini, C. M.; Rosengaus, M.; Meza, R.; Camacho, V.

    2015-12-01

    The National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami, is responsible for the forecast of tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific basins. As such, Mexico, Central America and Caribbean countries depend on the information issued by the NHC related to the characteristics of a particular tropical cyclone and associated watch and warning areas. Despite waves and storm surge are important hazards for marine operations and coastal dwellings, their forecast is not part of the NHC responsibilities. This work presents a rapid wave and storm surge warning system based on 3100 synthetic tropical cyclones doing landfall in Mexico. Hydrodynamic and wave models were driven by the synthetic events to create a robust database composed of maximum envelops of wind speed, significant wave height and storm surge for each event. The results were incorporated into a forecast system that uses the NHC advisory to locate the synthetic events passing inside specified radiuses for the present and forecast position of the real event. Using limited computer resources, the system displays the information meeting the search criteria, and the forecaster can select specific events to generate the desired hazard map (i.e. wind, waves, and storm surge) based on the maximum envelop maps. This system was developed in a limited time frame to be operational in 2015 by the National Hurricane and Severe Storms Unit of the Mexican National Weather Service, and represents a pilot project for other countries in the region not covered by detailed storm surge and waves forecasts.

  13. Estimating Areas of Vulnerability: Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge Hazards in the National Parks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caffrey, M.; Beavers, R. L.; Slayton, I. A.

    2013-12-01

    The University of Colorado Boulder in collaboration with the National Park Service has undertaken the task of compiling sea level change and storm surge data for 105 coastal parks. The aim of our research is to highlight areas of the park system that are at increased risk of rapid inundation as well as periodic flooding due to sea level rise and storms. This research will assist park managers and planners in adapting to climate change. The National Park Service incorporates climate change data into many of their planning documents and is willing to implement innovative coastal adaptation strategies. Events such as Hurricane Sandy highlight how impacts of coastal hazards will continue to challenge management of natural and cultural resources and infrastructure along our coastlines. This poster will discuss the current status of this project. We discuss the impacts of Hurricane Sandy as well as the latest sea level rise and storm surge modeling being employed in this project. In addition to evaluating various drivers of relative sea-level change, we discuss how park planners and managers also need to consider projected storm surge values added to sea-level rise magnitudes, which could further complicate the management of coastal lands. Storm surges occurring at coastal parks will continue to change the land and seascapes of these areas, with the potential to completely submerge them. The likelihood of increased storm intensity added to increasing rates of sea-level rise make predicting the reach of future storm surges essential for planning and adaptation purposes. The National Park Service plays a leading role in developing innovative strategies for coastal parks to adapt to sea-level rise and storm surge, whilst coastal storms are opportunities to apply highly focused responses.

  14. A Comparison of Ensemble Kalman Filters for Storm Surge Assimilation

    KAUST Repository

    Altaf, Muhammad

    2014-08-01

    This study evaluates and compares the performances of several variants of the popular ensembleKalman filter for the assimilation of storm surge data with the advanced circulation (ADCIRC) model. Using meteorological data from Hurricane Ike to force the ADCIRC model on a domain including the Gulf ofMexico coastline, the authors implement and compare the standard stochastic ensembleKalman filter (EnKF) and three deterministic square root EnKFs: the singular evolutive interpolated Kalman (SEIK) filter, the ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF), and the ensemble adjustment Kalman filter (EAKF). Covariance inflation and localization are implemented in all of these filters. The results from twin experiments suggest that the square root ensemble filters could lead to very comparable performances with appropriate tuning of inflation and localization, suggesting that practical implementation details are at least as important as the choice of the square root ensemble filter itself. These filters also perform reasonably well with a relatively small ensemble size, whereas the stochastic EnKF requires larger ensemble sizes to provide similar accuracy for forecasts of storm surge.

  15. A Comparison of Ensemble Kalman Filters for Storm Surge Assimilation

    KAUST Repository

    Altaf, Muhammad; Butler, T.; Mayo, T.; Luo, X.; Dawson, C.; Heemink, A. W.; Hoteit, Ibrahim

    2014-01-01

    This study evaluates and compares the performances of several variants of the popular ensembleKalman filter for the assimilation of storm surge data with the advanced circulation (ADCIRC) model. Using meteorological data from Hurricane Ike to force the ADCIRC model on a domain including the Gulf ofMexico coastline, the authors implement and compare the standard stochastic ensembleKalman filter (EnKF) and three deterministic square root EnKFs: the singular evolutive interpolated Kalman (SEIK) filter, the ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF), and the ensemble adjustment Kalman filter (EAKF). Covariance inflation and localization are implemented in all of these filters. The results from twin experiments suggest that the square root ensemble filters could lead to very comparable performances with appropriate tuning of inflation and localization, suggesting that practical implementation details are at least as important as the choice of the square root ensemble filter itself. These filters also perform reasonably well with a relatively small ensemble size, whereas the stochastic EnKF requires larger ensemble sizes to provide similar accuracy for forecasts of storm surge.

  16. Assessment of the Temporal Evolution of Storm Surge via Land to Water Isopleths in Coastal Louisiana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siverd, C. G.; Hagen, S. C.; Bilskie, M. V.; Braud, D.; Gao, S.; Peele, H.; Twilley, R.

    2017-12-01

    The low-lying coastal Louisiana deltaic landscape features an intricate system of fragmented wetlands, natural ridges, man-made navigation canals and flood protection infrastructure. Since 1900 and prior to the landfall of Hurricane Katrina in 2005, Louisiana lost approximately 480,000 ha (1,850 sq mi) of coastal wetlands and an additional 20,000 ha (77 sq mi) due to Katrina. This resulted in a total wetland storm protection value loss of USD 28.3 billion and USD 1.1 billion, respectively (Costanza 2008). To investigate the response of hurricane storm surge (e.g. peak water levels, inundation time and extent) through time due to land loss, hydrodynamic models that represent historical eras of the Louisiana coastal landscape were developed. Land:Water (L:W) isopleths (Gagliano 1970, 1971, Twilley 2016) have been calculated along the coast from the Sabine River to the Pearl River. These isopleths were utilized to create a simplified coastal landscape (bathymetry, topography, bottom roughness) representing circa 2010. Similar methodologies are employed with the objective of developing storm surge models that represent the coastal landscape for past eras. The goal is to temporally examine the evolution of storm surge along coastal Louisiana. The isopleths determined to best represent the Louisiana coast as a result of the methodology devised to develop the simple storm surge model for c.2010 are applied in the development of surge models for historical eras c.1930 and c.1970. The ADvaced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) code (Luettich 2004) is used to perform storm surge simulations with a predetermined suite of hurricane wind and pressure forcings. Hydrologic Unit Code 12 (HUC12) sub-watersheds provide geographical bounds to quantify mean maximum water surface elevations (WSEs), volume of inundation, and area of inundation. HUC12 sub-watersheds also provide a means to compare/contrast these quantified surge parameters on a HUC12-by-HUC12 basis for the c.1930, c.1970 and c.2010

  17. HURRICANE AND SEVERE STORM SENTINEL (HS3) HURRICANE IMAGING RADIOMETER (HIRAD) V1

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3) Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD) was collected by the Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD), which was a multi-band...

  18. Overview and Design Considerations of Storm Surge Barriers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mooyaart, L.F.; Jonkman, S.N.

    2017-01-01

    The risk of flooding in coastal zones is expected to increase due to sea level rise and economic development. In larger bays, estuaries, and coastal waterways, storm surge barriers can be constructed to temporarily close off these systems during storm surges to provide coastal flood protection.

  19. Impacts of Storm Surge Mitigation Strategies on Aboveground Storage Tank Chemical Spill Transport

    Science.gov (United States)

    Do, C.; Bass, B. J.; Bernier, C.; Samii, A.; Dawson, C.; Bedient, P. B.

    2017-12-01

    The Houston Ship Channel (HSC), located in the hurricane-prone Houston-Galveston region of the upper Texas Coast, is one of the busiest waterways in the United States and is home to one of the largest petrochemical complexes in the world. Due to the proximity of the HSC to Galveston Bay and the Gulf of Mexico, chemical spills resulting from storm surge damage to aboveground storage tanks (ASTs) pose serious threats to the environment, residential communities, and national/international markets whose activities in the HSC generate billions of dollars annually. In an effort to develop a comprehensive storm surge mitigation strategy for Galveston Bay and its constituents, Rice University's Severe Storm Prediction, Education, and Evacuation from Disasters Center proposed two structural storm surge mitigation concepts, the Mid Bay Structure (MBS) and the Lower Bay Structure (LBS) as components of the Houston-Galveston Area Protection System (H-GAPS) project. The MBS consists of levees along the HSC and a navigational gate across the channel, and the LBS consists of a navigation gate and environmental gates across Bolivar Road. The impacts of these two barrier systems on the fate of AST chemical spills in the HSC have previously been unknown. This study applies the coupled 2D SWAN+ADCIRC model to simulate hurricane storm surge circulation within the Gulf of Mexico and Galveston Bay due to a synthetic storm which results in approximately 250-year surge levels in Galveston Bay. The SWAN+ADCIRC model is run using high-resolution computational meshes that incorporate the MBS and LBS scenarios, separately. The resulting wind and water velocities are then fed into a Lagrangian particle transport model to simulate the spill trajectories of the ASTs most likely to fail during the 250-year proxy storm. Results from this study illustrate how each storm surge mitigation strategy impacts the transport of chemical spills (modeled as Lagrangian particles) during storm surge as

  20. Storm Surge Modeling of Typhoon Haiyan at the Naval Oceanographic Office Using Delft3D

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilligan, M. J.; Lovering, J. L.

    2016-02-01

    The Naval Oceanographic Office provides estimates of the rise in sea level along the coast due to storm surge associated with tropical cyclones, typhoons, and hurricanes. Storm surge modeling and prediction helps the US Navy by providing a threat assessment tool to help protect Navy assets and provide support for humanitarian assistance/disaster relief efforts. Recent advancements in our modeling capabilities include the use of the Delft3D modeling suite as part of a Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) developed Coastal Surge Inundation Prediction System (CSIPS). Model simulations were performed on Typhoon Haiyan, which made landfall in the Philippines in November 2013. Comparisons of model simulations using forecast and hindcast track data highlight the importance of accurate storm track information for storm surge predictions. Model runs using the forecast track prediction and hindcast track information give maximum storm surge elevations of 4 meters and 6.1 meters, respectively. Model results for the hindcast simulation were compared with data published by the JSCE-PICE Joint survey for locations in San Pedro Bay (SPB) and on the Eastern Samar Peninsula (ESP). In SPB, where wind-induced set-up predominates, the model run using the forecast track predicted surge within 2 meters in 38% of survey locations and within 3 meters in 59% of the locations. When the hindcast track was used, the model predicted within 2 meters in 77% of the locations and within 3 meters in 95% of the locations. The model was unable to predict the high surge reported along the ESP produced by infragravity wave-induced set-up, which is not simulated in the model. Additional modeling capabilities incorporating infragravity waves are required to predict storm surge accurately along open coasts with steep bathymetric slopes, such as those seen in island arcs.

  1. Numerical Modeling of Coastal Inundation and Sedimentation by Storm Surge, Tides, and Waves at Norfolk, Virginia, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-07-01

    hurricanes (tropical) with a 50-year and a 100-year return period, and one winter storm ( extratropical ) occurred in October 1982. There are a total of 15...under the 0-m and 2-m SLR scenarios, respectively. • Tropical and extratropical storms induce extensive coastal inundation around the military...1 NUMERICAL MODELING OF COASTAL INUNDATION AND SEDIMENTATION BY STORM SURGE, TIDES, AND WAVES AT NORFOLK, VIRGINIA, USA Honghai Li 1 , Lihwa Lin 1

  2. Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricanes (SLOSH) Inundation for Categories 2 and 4

    Science.gov (United States)

    The file geodatabase (fgdb) contains the Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricanes (SLOSH) Maximum of Maximums (MOM) model for hurricane categories 2 and 4. The EPA Office of Research & Development (ORD) modified the original model from NOAA to fit the model parameters for the Buzzards Bay region. The models show storm surge extent for the Mattapoisett area and therefore the flooding area was reduced to the study area. Areas of flooding that were not connected to the main water body were removed. The files in the geodatabase are:Cat2_SLR0_Int_Feet_dissolve_Mattapoisett: Current Category 2 hurricane with 0 ft sea level riseCat4_SLR0_Int_Feet_dissolve_Mattapoisett: Current Category 4 hurricane with 0 ft sea level riseCat4_SLR4_Int_Feet_dissolve_Mattapoisett: Future Category 4 hurricane with 4 feet sea level riseThe features support the Weather Ready Mattapoisett story map, which can be accessed via the following link:https://epa.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapJournal/index.html?appid=1ff4f1d28a254cb689334799d94b74e2

  3. Hurricane Rita surge data, southwestern Louisiana and southeastern Texas, September to November 2005

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGee, Benton D.; Goree, Burl B.; Tollett, Roland W.; Woodward, Brenda K.; Kress, Wade H.

    2006-01-01

    Pressure transducers and high-water marks were used to document the inland water levels related to storm surge generated by Hurricane Rita in southwestern Louisiana and southeastern Texas. On September 22-23, 2005, an experimental monitoring network consisting of 47 pressure transducers (sensors) was deployed at 33 sites over an area of about 4,000 square miles to record the timing, extent, and magnitude of inland hurricane storm surge and coastal flooding. Sensors were programmed to record date and time, temperature, and barometric or water pressure. Water pressure was corrected for changes in barometric pressure and salinity. Elevation surveys using global-positioning systems and differential levels were used to relate all storm-surge water-level data, reference marks, benchmarks, sensor measuring points, and high-water marks to the North American Vertical Datum of 1988 (NAVD 88). The resulting data indicated that storm-surge water levels over 14 feet above NAVD 88 occurred at three locations and rates of water-level rise greater than 5 feet per hour occurred at three locations near the Louisiana coast. Quality-assurance measures were used to assess the variability and accuracy of the water-level data recorded by the sensors. Water-level data from sensors were similar to data from co-located sensors, permanent U.S. Geological Survey streamgages, and water-surface elevations performed by field staff. Water-level data from sensors at selected locations were compared to corresponding high-water mark elevations. In general, the water-level data from sensors were similar to elevations of high quality high-water marks, while reporting consistently higher than elevations of lesser quality high-water marks.

  4. Observing storm surges in the Bay of Bengal from satellite altimetry

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Antony, C.; Testut, L.; Unnikrishnan, A.S.

    with the large tidal ranges give rise to extreme sea level in the head bay and surrounding regions. Moreover, low-lying nature of the coast and the dense population in the region make the coasts of the northern Bay of Bengal highly vulnerable to storm surges...-gauge data during the passage of the hurricane Igor that crossed Newfoundland in 2010. For this event, St. John’s tide gauge recorded a maximum surge of 94 cm and Jason-2 (the track located 89 km away from the tide-gauge station) showed positive sea-level...

  5. Analysis of storm-tide impacts from Hurricane Sandy in New York

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schubert, Christopher E.; Busciolano, Ronald J.; Hearn, Paul P.; Rahav, Ami N.; Behrens, Riley; Finkelstein, Jason S.; Monti, Jack; Simonson, Amy E.

    2015-07-21

    The hybrid cyclone-nor’easter known as Hurricane Sandy affected the mid-Atlantic and northeastern United States during October 28-30, 2012, causing extensive coastal flooding. Prior to storm landfall, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) deployed a temporary monitoring network from Virginia to Maine to record the storm tide and coastal flooding generated by Hurricane Sandy. This sensor network augmented USGS and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) networks of permanent monitoring sites that also documented storm surge. Continuous data from these networks were supplemented by an extensive post-storm high-water-mark (HWM) flagging and surveying campaign. The sensor deployment and HWM campaign were conducted under a directed mission assignment by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). The need for hydrologic interpretation of monitoring data to assist in flood-damage analysis and future flood mitigation prompted the current analysis of Hurricane Sandy by the USGS under this FEMA mission assignment.

  6. Storm surge model based on variational data assimilation method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shi-li Huang

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available By combining computation and observation information, the variational data assimilation method has the ability to eliminate errors caused by the uncertainty of parameters in practical forecasting. It was applied to a storm surge model based on unstructured grids with high spatial resolution meant for improving the forecasting accuracy of the storm surge. By controlling the wind stress drag coefficient, the variation-based model was developed and validated through data assimilation tests in an actual storm surge induced by a typhoon. In the data assimilation tests, the model accurately identified the wind stress drag coefficient and obtained results close to the true state. Then, the actual storm surge induced by Typhoon 0515 was forecast by the developed model, and the results demonstrate its efficiency in practical application.

  7. Using satellite altimetry and tide gauges for storm surge warning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, O. B.; Cheng, Yongcun; Deng, X.

    2014-01-01

    of Australia. For both locations we have tried to investigate the possibilities and limitations of the use of satellite altimetry to capture high frequency signals (surges) using data from the past 20 years. The two regions are chosen to represent extra-tropical and tropical storm surge conditions. We have...

  8. Storm surge modeling of Superstorm Sandy in the New York City Metropolitan area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benimoff, A. I.; Blanton, B. O.; Dzedzits, E.; Fritz, W. J.; Kress, M.; Muzio, P.; Sela, L.

    2013-12-01

    Even though the New York/New Jersey area does not lie within the typical 'hurricane belt', recent events and the historical record indicate that large infrequent tropical storms have had direct hits on the region, with impacts being amplified due to the nearly right angle bend in the coastline. The recent plan unveiled by New York City's Mayor Bloomberg lays out mitigation strategies to protect the region's communities, infrastructure, and assets from future storms, and numerical simulation of storm surge and wave hazards driven by potential hurricanes plays a central role in developing and evaluating these strategies. To assist in local planning, recovery, and decision-making, we have used the tide, storm surge, and wind wave model ADCIRC+SWAN to simulate storm surge in one of the most populated areas of the United States: the New York City (NYC) metropolitan area. We have generated a new high-resolution triangular finite-element model grid for the region from recent USGS data as well as recent city topographic maps at 2-foot (0.6m) contour intervals, nautical charts, and details of shipping channels. Our hindcast simulations are compared against Superstorm Sandy. We used the City University of New York High Performance Computing Center's Cray XE6tm at the College of Staten Island for these simulations. Hindcasting and analysis of the Superstorm Sandy storm surge and waves indicates that our simulations produce a reasonable representation of actual events. The grid will be used in an ADCIRC-based forecasting system implementation for the region.

  9. Mapping Hurricane Rita inland storm tide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berenbrock, Charles; Mason, Jr., Robert R.; Blanchard, Stephen F.; Simonovic, Slobodan P.

    2009-01-01

    Flood-inundation data are most useful for decision makers when presented in the context of maps of effected communities and (or) areas. But because the data are scarce and rarely cover the full extent of the flooding, interpolation and extrapolation of the information are needed. Many geographic information systems (GIS) provide various interpolation tools, but these tools often ignore the effects of the topographic and hydraulic features that influence flooding. A barrier mapping method was developed to improve maps of storm tide produced by Hurricane Rita. Maps were developed for the maximum storm tide and at 3-hour intervals from midnight (0000 hour) through noon (1200 hour) on September 24, 2005. The improved maps depict storm-tide elevations and the extent of flooding. The extent of storm-tide inundation from the improved maximum storm-tide map was compared to the extent of flood-inundation from a map prepared by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). The boundaries from these two maps generally compared quite well especially along the Calcasieu River. Also a cross-section profile that parallels the Louisiana coast was developed from the maximum storm-tide map and included FEMA high-water marks.

  10. Storm Surge and Tide Interaction: A Complete Paradigm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horsburgh, K.

    2014-12-01

    Estimates show that in 2005, in the largest 136 coastal cities, there were 40 million people and 3,000 billion of assets exposed to 1 in 100 year coastal flood events. Mean sea level rise will increase this exposure to 150 million people and 35,000 billion of assets by 2070. Any further change in the statistics of flood frequency or severity would impact severely on economic and social systems. It is therefore crucial to understand the physical drivers of extreme storm surges, and to have confidence in datasets used for extreme sea level statistics. Much previous research has focussed on the process of tide-surge interaction, and it is now widely accepted that the physical basis of tide-surge interaction is that a phase shift of the tidal signal represents the effect of the surge on the tide. The second aspect of interaction is that shallow water momentum considerations imply that differing tidal states should modulate surge generation: wind stress should have greater surge-generating potential on lower tides. We present results from a storm surge model of the European shelf that demonstrate that tidal range does have an effect on the surges generated. The cycle-integrated effects of wind stress (i.e. the skew surge) are greater when tidal range is low. Our results contradict the absence of any such correlation in tide gauge records. This suggests that whilst the modulating effect of the tide on the skew surge (the time-independent difference between peak prediction and observations) is significant, the difference between individual storms is dominant. This implies that forecasting systems must predict salient detail of the most intense storms. A further implication is that flood forecasting models need to simulate tides with acceptable accuracy at all coastal locations. We extend our model analysis to show that the same modulation of storm surges (by tidal conditions) applies to tropical cyclones. We conduct simulations using a mature operational storm surge model

  11. Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricanes (SLOSH) Inundation for Categories 2 and 4

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The file geodatabase (fgdb) contains the Sea, Lake, and Overland Surge from Hurricanes (SLOSH) Maximum of Maximums (MOM) model for hurricane categories 2 and 4. The...

  12. Measuring storm tide and high-water marks caused by Hurricane Sandy in New York: Chapter 2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simonson, Amy E.; Behrens, Riley

    2015-01-01

    In response to Hurricane Sandy, personnel from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) deployed a temporary network of storm-tide sensors from Virginia to Maine. During the storm, real-time water levels were available from tide gages and rapid-deployment gages (RDGs). After the storm, USGS scientists retrieved the storm-tide sensors and RDGs and surveyed high-water marks. These data demonstrate that the timing of peak storm surge relative to astronomical tide was extremely important in southeastern New York. For example, along the south shores of New York City and western Suffolk County, the peak storm surge of 6–9 ft generally coincided with the astronomical high tide, which resulted in substantial coastal flooding. In the Peconic Estuary and northern Nassau County, however, the peak storm surge of 9 ft and nearly 12 ft, respectively, nearly coincided with normal low tide, which helped spare these communities from more severe coastal flooding.

  13. Improving Short-Range Ensemble Kalman Storm Surge Forecasting Using Robust Adaptive Inflation

    KAUST Repository

    Altaf, Muhammad

    2013-08-01

    This paper presents a robust ensemble filtering methodology for storm surge forecasting based on the singular evolutive interpolated Kalman (SEIK) filter, which has been implemented in the framework of the H∞ filter. By design, an H∞ filter is more robust than the common Kalman filter in the sense that the estimation error in the H∞ filter has, in general, a finite growth rate with respect to the uncertainties in assimilation. The computational hydrodynamical model used in this study is the Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC) model. The authors assimilate data obtained from Hurricanes Katrina and Ike as test cases. The results clearly show that the H∞-based SEIK filter provides more accurate short-range forecasts of storm surge compared to recently reported data assimilation results resulting from the standard SEIK filter.

  14. Improving Short-Range Ensemble Kalman Storm Surge Forecasting Using Robust Adaptive Inflation

    KAUST Repository

    Altaf, Muhammad; Butler, T.; Luo, X.; Dawson, C.; Mayo, T.; Hoteit, Ibrahim

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a robust ensemble filtering methodology for storm surge forecasting based on the singular evolutive interpolated Kalman (SEIK) filter, which has been implemented in the framework of the H∞ filter. By design, an H∞ filter is more robust than the common Kalman filter in the sense that the estimation error in the H∞ filter has, in general, a finite growth rate with respect to the uncertainties in assimilation. The computational hydrodynamical model used in this study is the Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC) model. The authors assimilate data obtained from Hurricanes Katrina and Ike as test cases. The results clearly show that the H∞-based SEIK filter provides more accurate short-range forecasts of storm surge compared to recently reported data assimilation results resulting from the standard SEIK filter.

  15. Monitoring storm tide and flooding from Hurricane Matthew along the Atlantic coast of the United States, October 2016

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frantz, Eric R.; Byrne,, Michael L.; Caldwell, Andral W.; Harden, Stephen L.

    2017-11-02

    IntroductionHurricane Matthew moved adjacent to the coasts of Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina. The hurricane made landfall once near McClellanville, South Carolina, on October 8, 2016, as a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) deployed a temporary monitoring network of storm-tide sensors at 284 sites along the Atlantic coast from Florida to North Carolina to record the timing, areal extent, and magnitude of hurricane storm tide and coastal flooding generated by Hurricane Matthew. Storm tide, as defined by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, is the water-level rise generated by a combination of storm surge and astronomical tide during a coastal storm.The deployment for Hurricane Matthew was the largest deployment of storm-tide sensors in USGS history and was completed as part of a coordinated Federal emergency response as outlined by the Stafford Act (Public Law 92–288, 42 U.S.C. 5121–5207) under a directed mission assignment by the Federal Emergency Management Agency. In total, 543 high-water marks (HWMs) also were collected after Hurricane Matthew, and this was the second largest HWM recovery effort in USGS history after Hurricane Sandy in 2012.During the hurricane, real-time water-level data collected at temporary rapid deployment gages (RDGs) and long-term USGS streamgage stations were relayed immediately for display on the USGS Flood Event Viewer (https://stn.wim.usgs.gov/FEV/#MatthewOctober2016). These data provided emergency managers and responders with critical information for tracking flood-effected areas and directing assistance to effected communities. Data collected from this hurricane can be used to calibrate and evaluate the performance of storm-tide models for maximum and incremental water level and flood extent, and the site-specific effects of storm tide on natural and anthropogenic features of the environment.

  16. A numerical storm surge forecast model with Kalman filter

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Yu Fujiang; Zhang Zhanhai; Lin Yihua

    2001-01-01

    Kalman filter data assimilation technique is incorporated into a standard two-dimensional linear storm surge model. Imperfect model equation and imperfect meteorological forcimg are accounted for by adding noise terms to the momentum equations. The deterministic model output is corrected by using the available tidal gauge station data. The stationary Kalman filter algorithm for the model domain is calculated by an iterative procedure using specified information on the inaccuracies in the momentum equations and specified error information for the observations. An application to a real storm surge that occurred in the summer of 1956 in the East China Sea is performed by means of this data assimilation technique. The result shows that Kalman filter is useful for storm surge forecast and hindcast.

  17. Evaluation of Loss Due to Storm Surge Disasters in China Based on Econometric Model Groups

    OpenAIRE

    Xue Jin; Xiaoxia Shi; Jintian Gao; Tongbin Xu; Kedong Yin

    2018-01-01

    Storm surge has become an important factor restricting the economic and social development of China’s coastal regions. In order to improve the scientific judgment of future storm surge damage, a method of model groups is proposed to refine the evaluation of the loss due to storm surges. Due to the relative dispersion and poor regularity of the natural property data (login center air pressure, maximum wind speed, maximum storm water, super warning water level, etc.), storm surge disaster is di...

  18. Model simulation of storm surge potential for Andaman islands

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Kumar, V.S.; RameshBabu, V.; Babu, M.T.; Dhinakaran, G.; Rajamanickam, G.V.

    Hydraulics and Oceanography, the Hydrodynamics Module Reference Manual. DHI Water and Environment, Horsholm, Denmark, 58 p. Dube, S.K., Sinha, P C , Rao, A.D., and Rao, G.S., 1985. Numerical modeling of storm surges in the Arabian Sea, Appl. Math Modelling, 9...

  19. Purple pitcher plant (Sarracenia rosea Dieback and partial community disassembly following experimental storm surge in a coastal pitcher plant bog.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew J Abbott

    Full Text Available Sea-level rise and frequent intense hurricanes associated with climate change will result in recurrent flooding of inland systems such as Gulf Coastal pitcher plant bogs by storm surges. These surges can transport salt water and sediment to freshwater bogs, greatly affecting their biological integrity. Purple pitcher plants (Sarracenia rosea are Gulf Coast pitcher plant bog inhabitants that could be at a disadvantage under this scenario because their pitcher morphology may leave them prone to collection of saline water and sediment after a surge. We investigated the effects of storm surge water salinity and sediment type on S. rosea vitality, plant community structure, and bog soil-water conductivity. Plots (containing ≥1 ramet of S. rosea were experimentally flooded with fresh or saline water crossed with one of three sediment types (local, foreign, or no sediment. There were no treatment effects on soil-water conductivity; nevertheless, direct exposure to saline water resulted in significantly lower S. rosea cover until the following season when a prescribed fire and regional drought contributed to the decline of all the S. rosea to near zero percent cover. There were also significant differences in plant community structure between treatments over time, reflecting how numerous species increased in abundance and a few species decreased in abundance. However, in contrast to S. rosea, most of the other species in the community appeared resilient to the effects of storm surge. Thus, although the community may be somewhat affected by storm surge, those few species that are particularly sensitive to the storm surge disturbance will likely drop out of the community and be replaced by more resilient species. Depending on the longevity of these biological legacies, Gulf Coastal pitcher plant bogs may be incapable of fully recovering if they become exposed to storm surge more frequently due to climate change.

  20. Assessing storm surge hazard and impact of sea level rise in the Lesser Antilles case study of Martinique

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krien, Yann; Dudon, Bernard; Roger, Jean; Arnaud, Gael; Zahibo, Narcisse

    2017-09-01

    In the Lesser Antilles, coastal inundations from hurricane-induced storm surges pose a great threat to lives, properties and ecosystems. Assessing current and future storm surge hazards with sufficient spatial resolution is of primary interest to help coastal planners and decision makers develop mitigation and adaptation measures. Here, we use wave-current numerical models and statistical methods to investigate worst case scenarios and 100-year surge levels for the case study of Martinique under present climate or considering a potential sea level rise. Results confirm that the wave setup plays a major role in the Lesser Antilles, where the narrow island shelf impedes the piling-up of large amounts of wind-driven water on the shoreline during extreme events. The radiation stress gradients thus contribute significantly to the total surge - up to 100 % in some cases. The nonlinear interactions of sea level rise (SLR) with bathymetry and topography are generally found to be relatively small in Martinique but can reach several tens of centimeters in low-lying areas where the inundation extent is strongly enhanced compared to present conditions. These findings further emphasize the importance of waves for developing operational storm surge warning systems in the Lesser Antilles and encourage caution when using static methods to assess the impact of sea level rise on storm surge hazard.

  1. Coastal Storm Surge Analysis: Modeling System Validation. Report 4: Intermediate Submission No. 2.0

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-07-01

    Hurricane Isabel, Hurricane Ernesto, and Extratropical Storm Ida. Model skill was accessed by quantitative comparison of model output to wind, wave...25. Extratropical Storm Nor’Ida maximum wind speeds. ......................................................... 41  Figure 26. Extratropical Storm ...Nor’Ida wind validation stations. ........................................................ 42  Figure 27. Comparisons of Extratropical Storm Nor’Ida wind

  2. Probabilistic storm surge inundation maps for Metro Manila based on Philippine public storm warning signals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tablazon, J.; Caro, C. V.; Lagmay, A. M. F.; Briones, J. B. L.; Dasallas, L.; Lapidez, J. P.; Santiago, J.; Suarez, J. K.; Ladiero, C.; Gonzalo, L. A.; Mungcal, M. T. F.; Malano, V.

    2015-03-01

    A storm surge is the sudden rise of sea water over the astronomical tides, generated by an approaching storm. This event poses a major threat to the Philippine coastal areas, as manifested by Typhoon Haiyan on 8 November 2013. This hydro-meteorological hazard is one of the main reasons for the high number of casualties due to the typhoon, with 6300 deaths. It became evident that the need to develop a storm surge inundation map is of utmost importance. To develop these maps, the Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards under the Department of Science and Technology (DOST-Project NOAH) simulated historical tropical cyclones that entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility. The Japan Meteorological Agency storm surge model was used to simulate storm surge heights. The frequency distribution of the maximum storm surge heights was calculated using simulation results of tropical cyclones under a specific public storm warning signal (PSWS) that passed through a particular coastal area. This determines the storm surge height corresponding to a given probability of occurrence. The storm surge heights from the model were added to the maximum astronomical tide data from WXTide software. The team then created maps of inundation for a specific PSWS using the probability of exceedance derived from the frequency distribution. Buildings and other structures were assigned a probability of exceedance depending on their occupancy category, i.e., 1% probability of exceedance for critical facilities, 10% probability of exceedance for special occupancy structures, and 25% for standard occupancy and miscellaneous structures. The maps produced show the storm-surge-vulnerable areas in Metro Manila, illustrated by the flood depth of up to 4 m and extent of up to 6.5 km from the coastline. This information can help local government units in developing early warning systems, disaster preparedness and mitigation plans, vulnerability assessments, risk-sensitive land use plans, shoreline

  3. Study of storm surge trends in typhoon-prone coastal areas based on observations and surge-wave coupled simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Xingru; Li, Mingjie; Yin, Baoshu; Yang, Dezhou; Yang, Hongwei

    2018-06-01

    This is a study of the storm surge trends in some of the typhoon-prone coastal areas of China. An unstructured-grid, storm surge-wave-tide coupled model was established for the coastal areas of Zhejiang, Fujian and Guangdong provinces. The coupled model has a high resolution in coastal areas, and the simulated results compared well with the in situ observations and satellite altimeter data. The typhoon-induced storm surges along the coast of the study areas were simulated based on the established coupled model for the past 20 years (1997-2016). The simulated results were used to analyze the trends of the storm surges in the study area. The extreme storm surge trends along the central coast of Fujian Province reached up to 0.06 m/y, significant at the 90% confidence level. The duration of the storm surges greater than 1.0 and 0.7 m had an increasing trend along the coastal area of northern Fujian Province, significant at confidence levels of 70%-91%. The simulated trends of the extreme storm surges were also validated by observations from two tide gauge stations. Further studies show that the correlation coefficient (RTE) between the duration of the storm surge greater than 1 m and the annual ENSO index can reach as high as 0.62, significant at the 99% confidence level. This occurred in a location where the storm surge trend was not significant. For the areas with significant increasing storm surge trends, RTE was small and not significant. This study identified the storm surge trends for the full complex coastline of the study area. These results are useful both for coastal management by the government and for coastal engineering design.

  4. Visualizing uncertainties in a storm surge ensemble data assimilation and forecasting system

    KAUST Repository

    Hollt, Thomas

    2015-01-15

    We present a novel integrated visualization system that enables the interactive visual analysis of ensemble simulations and estimates of the sea surface height and other model variables that are used for storm surge prediction. Coastal inundation, caused by hurricanes and tropical storms, poses large risks for today\\'s societies. High-fidelity numerical models of water levels driven by hurricane-force winds are required to predict these events, posing a challenging computational problem, and even though computational models continue to improve, uncertainties in storm surge forecasts are inevitable. Today, this uncertainty is often exposed to the user by running the simulation many times with different parameters or inputs following a Monte-Carlo framework in which uncertainties are represented as stochastic quantities. This results in multidimensional, multivariate and multivalued data, so-called ensemble data. While the resulting datasets are very comprehensive, they are also huge in size and thus hard to visualize and interpret. In this paper, we tackle this problem by means of an interactive and integrated visual analysis system. By harnessing the power of modern graphics processing units for visualization as well as computation, our system allows the user to browse through the simulation ensembles in real time, view specific parameter settings or simulation models and move between different spatial and temporal regions without delay. In addition, our system provides advanced visualizations to highlight the uncertainty or show the complete distribution of the simulations at user-defined positions over the complete time series of the prediction. We highlight the benefits of our system by presenting its application in a real-world scenario using a simulation of Hurricane Ike.

  5. A Numerical Simulation of Extratropical Storm Surge and Hydrodynamic Response in the Bohai Sea

    OpenAIRE

    Ding, Yumei; Ding, Lei

    2014-01-01

    A hindcast of typical extratropical storm surge occurring in the Bohai Sea in October 2003 is performed using a three-dimensional (3D) Finite Volume Coastal Ocean Model (FVCOM). The storm surge model is forced by 10 m winds obtained from the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model simulation. It is shown that the simulated storm surge and tides agree well with the observations. The nonlinear interaction between the surge and astronomical tides, the spatial distribution of the max...

  6. Use of historical information in extreme storm surges frequency analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamdi, Yasser; Duluc, Claire-Marie; Deville, Yves; Bardet, Lise; Rebour, Vincent

    2013-04-01

    The prevention of storm surge flood risks is critical for protection and design of coastal facilities to very low probabilities of failure. The effective protection requires the use of a statistical analysis approach having a solid theoretical motivation. Relating extreme storm surges to their frequency of occurrence using probability distributions has been a common issue since 1950s. The engineer needs to determine the storm surge of a given return period, i.e., the storm surge quantile or design storm surge. Traditional methods for determining such a quantile have been generally based on data from the systematic record alone. However, the statistical extrapolation, to estimate storm surges corresponding to high return periods, is seriously contaminated by sampling and model uncertainty if data are available for a relatively limited period. This has motivated the development of approaches to enlarge the sample extreme values beyond the systematic period. The nonsystematic data occurred before the systematic period is called historical information. During the last three decades, the value of using historical information as a nonsystematic data in frequency analysis has been recognized by several authors. The basic hypothesis in statistical modeling of historical information is that a perception threshold exists and that during a giving historical period preceding the period of tide gauging, all exceedances of this threshold have been recorded. Historical information prior to the systematic records may arise from high-sea water marks left by extreme surges on the coastal areas. It can also be retrieved from archives, old books, earliest newspapers, damage reports, unpublished written records and interviews with local residents. A plotting position formula, to compute empirical probabilities based on systematic and historical data, is used in this communication paper. The objective of the present work is to examine the potential gain in estimation accuracy with the

  7. A Storm Surge and Inundation Model of the Back River Watershed at NASA Langley Research Center

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loftis, Jon Derek; Wang, Harry V.; DeYoung, Russell J.

    2013-01-01

    This report on a Virginia Institute for Marine Science project demonstrates that the sub-grid modeling technology (now as part of Chesapeake Bay Inundation Prediction System, CIPS) can incorporate high-resolution Lidar measurements provided by NASA Langley Research Center into the sub-grid model framework to resolve detailed topographic features for use as a hydrological transport model for run-off simulations within NASA Langley and Langley Air Force Base. The rainfall over land accumulates in the ditches/channels resolved via the model sub-grid was tested to simulate the run-off induced by heavy precipitation. Possessing both the capabilities for storm surge and run-off simulations, the CIPS model was then applied to simulate real storm events starting with Hurricane Isabel in 2003. It will be shown that the model can generate highly accurate on-land inundation maps as demonstrated by excellent comparison of the Langley tidal gauge time series data (CAPABLE.larc.nasa.gov) and spatial patterns of real storm wrack line measurements with the model results simulated during Hurricanes Isabel (2003), Irene (2011), and a 2009 Nor'easter. With confidence built upon the model's performance, sea level rise scenarios from the ICCP (International Climate Change Partnership) were also included in the model scenario runs to simulate future inundation cases.

  8. Hurricane Rita and the destruction of Holly Beach, Louisiana: Why the chenier plain is vulnerable to storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sallenger, A.H.; Wright, C.W.; Doran, K.; Guy, K.; Morgan, K.

    2009-01-01

    Hurricane Rita devastated gulf-front communities along the western Louisiana coast in 2005. LIDAR (light detection and ranging) topographic surveys and aerial photography collected before and after the storm showed the loss of every structure within the community of Holly Beach. Average shoreline change along western Louisiana's 140-km-long impacted shore was -23.3 ?? 30.1 m of erosion, although shoreline change in Holly Beach was substantially less, and erosion was not pervasive where the structures were lost. Before the storm, peak elevations of the dunes, or berms in the absence of dunes, along the impacted shore averaged 1.6 m. The storm surge, which reached 3.5 m just east of Holly Beach, completely inundated the beach systems along the impacted western Louisiana shore. The high surge potential and low land elevations make this coast extremely vulnerable to hurricanes. In fact, most of the western Louisiana shore impacted by Rita will be completely inundated by the storm surge of a worst-case Saffi r-Simpson category 1 hurricane. All of this shore will be inundated by worst-case category 2-5 storms. ?? 2009 The Geological Society of America.

  9. Determining Storm Surge Return Periods: The Use of Evidence of Historic Events

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Kristine S.; Sørensen, Carlo Sass; Schmith, Torben

    Storm surges are a major concern for many coastal communities, and rising levels of surges is a key concern in relation to climate change. The sea level of a statistical 100-year or 1000-year storm surge event and similar statistical measures are used for spatial planning and emergency preparedness...

  10. Risk assessment of storm surge disaster based on numerical models and remote sensing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Qingrong; Ruan, Chengqing; Zhong, Shan; Li, Jian; Yin, Zhonghui; Lian, Xihu

    2018-06-01

    Storm surge is one of the most serious ocean disasters in the world. Risk assessment of storm surge disaster for coastal areas has important implications for planning economic development and reducing disaster losses. Based on risk assessment theory, this paper uses coastal hydrological observations, a numerical storm surge model and multi-source remote sensing data, proposes methods for valuing hazard and vulnerability for storm surge and builds a storm surge risk assessment model. Storm surges in different recurrence periods are simulated in numerical models and the flooding areas and depth are calculated, which are used for assessing the hazard of storm surge; remote sensing data and GIS technology are used for extraction of coastal key objects and classification of coastal land use are identified, which is used for vulnerability assessment of storm surge disaster. The storm surge risk assessment model is applied for a typical coastal city, and the result shows the reliability and validity of the risk assessment model. The building and application of storm surge risk assessment model provides some basis reference for the city development plan and strengthens disaster prevention and mitigation.

  11. Identification of storm surge vulnerable areas in the Philippines through the simulation of Typhoon Haiyan-induced storm surge levels over historical storm tracks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lapidez, J. P.; Tablazon, J.; Dasallas, L.; Gonzalo, L. A.; Cabacaba, K. M.; Ramos, M. M. A.; Suarez, J. K.; Santiago, J.; Lagmay, A. M. F.; Malano, V.

    2015-07-01

    Super Typhoon Haiyan entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on 7 November 2013, causing tremendous damage to infrastructure and loss of lives mainly due to the storm surge and strong winds. Storm surges up to a height of 7 m were reported in the hardest hit areas. The threat imposed by this kind of natural calamity compelled researchers of the Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards (Project NOAH) which is the flagship disaster mitigation program of the Department of Science and Technology (DOST) of the Philippine government to undertake a study to determine the vulnerability of all Philippine coastal communities to storm surges of the same magnitude as those generated by Haiyan. This study calculates the maximum probable storm surge height for every coastal locality by running simulations of Haiyan-type conditions but with tracks of tropical cyclones that entered PAR from 1948-2013. One product of this study is a list of the 30 most vulnerable coastal areas that can be used as a basis for choosing priority sites for further studies to implement appropriate site-specific solutions for flood risk management. Another product is the storm tide inundation maps that the local government units can use to develop a risk-sensitive land use plan for identifying appropriate areas to build residential buildings, evacuation sites, and other critical facilities and lifelines. The maps can also be used to develop a disaster response plan and evacuation scheme.

  12. Identification of storm surge vulnerable areas in the Philippines through the simulation of Typhoon Haiyan-induced storm surge levels over historical storm tracks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. P. Lapidez

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Super Typhoon Haiyan entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR on 7 November 2013, causing tremendous damage to infrastructure and loss of lives mainly due to the storm surge and strong winds. Storm surges up to a height of 7 m were reported in the hardest hit areas. The threat imposed by this kind of natural calamity compelled researchers of the Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards (Project NOAH which is the flagship disaster mitigation program of the Department of Science and Technology (DOST of the Philippine government to undertake a study to determine the vulnerability of all Philippine coastal communities to storm surges of the same magnitude as those generated by Haiyan. This study calculates the maximum probable storm surge height for every coastal locality by running simulations of Haiyan-type conditions but with tracks of tropical cyclones that entered PAR from 1948–2013. One product of this study is a list of the 30 most vulnerable coastal areas that can be used as a basis for choosing priority sites for further studies to implement appropriate site-specific solutions for flood risk management. Another product is the storm tide inundation maps that the local government units can use to develop a risk-sensitive land use plan for identifying appropriate areas to build residential buildings, evacuation sites, and other critical facilities and lifelines. The maps can also be used to develop a disaster response plan and evacuation scheme.

  13. Evaluation of Loss Due to Storm Surge Disasters in China Based on Econometric Model Groups

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Xiaoxia; Xu, Tongbin; Yin, Kedong

    2018-01-01

    Storm surge has become an important factor restricting the economic and social development of China’s coastal regions. In order to improve the scientific judgment of future storm surge damage, a method of model groups is proposed to refine the evaluation of the loss due to storm surges. Due to the relative dispersion and poor regularity of the natural property data (login center air pressure, maximum wind speed, maximum storm water, super warning water level, etc.), storm surge disaster is divided based on eight kinds of storm surge disaster grade division methods combined with storm surge water, hypervigilance tide level, and disaster loss. The storm surge disaster loss measurement model groups consist of eight equations, and six major modules are constructed: storm surge disaster in agricultural loss, fishery loss, human resource loss, engineering facility loss, living facility loss, and direct economic loss. Finally, the support vector machine (SVM) model is used to evaluate the loss and the intra-sample prediction. It is indicated that the equations of the model groups can reflect in detail the relationship between the damage of storm surges and other related variables. Based on a comparison of the original value and the predicted value error, the model groups pass the test, providing scientific support and a decision basis for the early layout of disaster prevention and mitigation. PMID:29584628

  14. Evaluation of Loss Due to Storm Surge Disasters in China Based on Econometric Model Groups.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Xue; Shi, Xiaoxia; Gao, Jintian; Xu, Tongbin; Yin, Kedong

    2018-03-27

    Storm surge has become an important factor restricting the economic and social development of China's coastal regions. In order to improve the scientific judgment of future storm surge damage, a method of model groups is proposed to refine the evaluation of the loss due to storm surges. Due to the relative dispersion and poor regularity of the natural property data (login center air pressure, maximum wind speed, maximum storm water, super warning water level, etc.), storm surge disaster is divided based on eight kinds of storm surge disaster grade division methods combined with storm surge water, hypervigilance tide level, and disaster loss. The storm surge disaster loss measurement model groups consist of eight equations, and six major modules are constructed: storm surge disaster in agricultural loss, fishery loss, human resource loss, engineering facility loss, living facility loss, and direct economic loss. Finally, the support vector machine (SVM) model is used to evaluate the loss and the intra-sample prediction. It is indicated that the equations of the model groups can reflect in detail the relationship between the damage of storm surges and other related variables. Based on a comparison of the original value and the predicted value error, the model groups pass the test, providing scientific support and a decision basis for the early layout of disaster prevention and mitigation.

  15. Using Satellite Altimetry to Calibrate the Simulation of Typhoon Seth Storm Surge off Southeast China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaohui Li

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Satellite altimeters can capture storm surges generated by typhoons and tropical storms, if the satellite flies over at the right time. In this study, we show TOPEX/Poseidon altimeter-observed storm surge features off Southeast China on 10 October 1994 during Typhoon Seth. We then use a three-dimensional, barotropic, finite-volume community ocean model (FVCOM to simulate storm surges. An innovative aspect is that satellite data are used to calibrate the storm surge model to improve model performance, by adjusting model wind forcing fields (the National Center for Environment Prediction (NCEP reanalysis product in reference to the typhoon best-track data. The calibration reduces the along-track root-mean-square (RMS difference between model and altimetric data from 0.15 to 0.10 m. It also reduces the RMS temporal difference from 0.21 to 0.18 m between the model results and independent tide-gauge data at Xiamen. In particular, the calibrated model produces a peak storm surge of 1.01 m at 6:00 10 October 1994 at Xiamen, agreeing with tide-gauge data; while the peak storm surge with the NCEP forcing is 0.71 m only. We further show that the interaction between storm surges and astronomical tides contributes to the peak storm surge by 34% and that the storm surge propagates southwestward as a coastally-trapped Kelvin wave.

  16. Evaluation of Loss Due to Storm Surge Disasters in China Based on Econometric Model Groups

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xue Jin

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Storm surge has become an important factor restricting the economic and social development of China’s coastal regions. In order to improve the scientific judgment of future storm surge damage, a method of model groups is proposed to refine the evaluation of the loss due to storm surges. Due to the relative dispersion and poor regularity of the natural property data (login center air pressure, maximum wind speed, maximum storm water, super warning water level, etc., storm surge disaster is divided based on eight kinds of storm surge disaster grade division methods combined with storm surge water, hypervigilance tide level, and disaster loss. The storm surge disaster loss measurement model groups consist of eight equations, and six major modules are constructed: storm surge disaster in agricultural loss, fishery loss, human resource loss, engineering facility loss, living facility loss, and direct economic loss. Finally, the support vector machine (SVM model is used to evaluate the loss and the intra-sample prediction. It is indicated that the equations of the model groups can reflect in detail the relationship between the damage of storm surges and other related variables. Based on a comparison of the original value and the predicted value error, the model groups pass the test, providing scientific support and a decision basis for the early layout of disaster prevention and mitigation.

  17. Multidecadal Scale Detection Time for Potentially Increasing Atlantic Storm Surges in a Warming Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Benjamin Seiyon; Haran, Murali; Keller, Klaus

    2017-10-01

    Storm surges are key drivers of coastal flooding, which generate considerable risks. Strategies to manage these risks can hinge on the ability to (i) project the return periods of extreme storm surges and (ii) detect potential changes in their statistical properties. There are several lines of evidence linking rising global average temperatures and increasingly frequent extreme storm surges. This conclusion is, however, subject to considerable structural uncertainty. This leads to two main questions: What are projections under various plausible statistical models? How long would it take to distinguish among these plausible statistical models? We address these questions by analyzing observed and simulated storm surge data. We find that (1) there is a positive correlation between global mean temperature rise and increasing frequencies of extreme storm surges; (2) there is considerable uncertainty underlying the strength of this relationship; and (3) if the frequency of storm surges is increasing, this increase can be detected within a multidecadal timescale (≈20 years from now).

  18. Coastal Flooding Hazards due to storm surges and subsidence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Carlo; Knudsen, Per; Andersen, Ole B.

    Flooding hazard and risk mapping are major topics in low-lying coastal areas before even considering the adverse effects of sea level rise (SLR) due to climate change. While permanent inundation may be a prevalent issue, more often floods related to extreme events (storm surges) have the largest...... damage potential.Challenges are amplified in some areas due to subsidence from natural and/or anthropogenic causes. Subsidence of even a few mm/y may over time greatly impair the safety against flooding of coastal communities and must be accounted for in order to accomplish the economically most viable...

  19. An Approach to Remove the Systematic Bias from the Storm Surge forecasts in the Venice Lagoon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Canestrelli, A.

    2017-12-01

    In this work a novel approach is proposed for removing the systematic bias from the storm surge forecast computed by a two-dimensional shallow-water model. The model covers both the Adriatic and Mediterranean seas and provides the forecast at the entrance of the Venice Lagoon. The wind drag coefficient at the water-air interface is treated as a calibration parameter, with a different value for each range of wind velocities and wind directions. This sums up to a total of 16-64 parameters to be calibrated, depending on the chosen resolution. The best set of parameters is determined by means of an optimization procedure, which minimizes the RMS error between measured and modeled water level in Venice for the period 2011-2015. It is shown that a bias is present, for which the peaks of wind velocities provided by the weather forecast are largely underestimated, and that the calibration procedure removes this bias. When the calibrated model is used to reproduce events not included in the calibration dataset, the forecast error is strongly reduced, thus confirming the quality of our procedure. The proposed approach it is not site-specific and could be applied to different situations, such as storm surges caused by intense hurricanes.

  20. A numerical study on the effects of wave-current-surge interactions on the height and propagation of sea surface waves in Charleston Harbor during Hurricane Hugo 1989

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Huiqing; Xie, Lian

    2009-06-01

    The effects of wave-current interactions on ocean surface waves induced by Hurricane Hugo in and around the Charleston Harbor and its adjacent coastal waters are examined by using a three-dimensional (3D) wave-current coupled modeling system. The 3D storm surge modeling component of the coupled system is based on the Princeton Ocean Model (POM), the wave modeling component is based on the third generation wave model, Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN), and the inundation model is adopted from [Xie, L., Pietrafesa, L. J., Peng, M., 2004. Incorporation of a mass-conserving inundation scheme into a three-dimensional storm surge model. J. Coastal Res., 20, 1209-1223]. The results indicate that the change of water level associated with the storm surge is the primary cause for wave height changes due to wave-surge interaction. Meanwhile, waves propagating on top of surge cause a feedback effect on the surge height by modulating the surface wind stress and bottom stress. This effect is significant in shallow coastal waters, but relatively small in offshore deep waters. The influence of wave-current interaction on wave propagation is relatively insignificant, since waves generally propagate in the direction of the surface currents driven by winds. Wave-current interactions also affect the surface waves as a result of inundation and drying induced by the storm. Waves break as waters retreat in regions of drying, whereas waves are generated in flooded regions where no waves would have occurred without the flood water.

  1. Vulnerability assessment of storm surges in the coastal area of Guangdong Province

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Li

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Being bordered by the South China Sea and with long coastline, the coastal zone of Guangdong Province is often under severe risk of storm surges, as one of a few regions in China which is seriously threatened by storm surges. This article systematically analyzes the vulnerability factors of storm surges in the coastal area of Guangdong (from Yangjing to Shanwei. Five vulnerability assessment indicators of hazard-bearing bodies are proposed, which are social economic index, land use index, eco-environmental index, coastal construction index, and disaster-bearing capability index. Then storm surge vulnerability assessment index system in the coastal area of Guangdong is established. Additionally, the international general mode about coastal vulnerability assessment is improved, and the vulnerability evolution model of storm surges in the coastal area of Guangdong is constructed. Using ArcGIS, the vulnerability zoning map of storm surges in the study region is drawn. Results show that there is the highest degree of storm surge vulnerability in Zhuhai, Panyu, and Taishan; second in Zhongshan, Dongguan, Huiyang, and Haifeng; third in Jiangmen, Shanwei, Yangjiang, and Yangdong; fourth in Baoan, Kaiping, and Enping; and lowest in Guangzhou, Shunde, Shenzhen, and Longgang. This study on the risk of storm surges in these coastal cities can guide the land use of coastal cities in the future, and provide scientific advice for the government to prevent and mitigate the storm surge disasters. It has important theoretical and practical significance.

  2. New technology and tool prepared for communication against storm surges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Letkiewicz, Beata

    2010-05-01

    The aim of the presentation is description of the new technology and tool prepared for communication, information and issue of warnings against storm surges. The Maritime Branch of the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management is responsible for preparing the forecast as warning, where the end users are Government Officials and Public. The Maritime Branch carry out the project "Strengthening the administrative capacity in order to improve the management of Polish coastal zone environment" (supported by a grant from Norway through the Norwegian Financial Mechanism). The expected final result of the project is web site www.baltyk.pogodynka.pl. One of the activities of the project is - set up of information website www.baltyk.pogodynka.pl, giving public access to the complied data. Information on web site: - meta data - marine data (on-line measurement: sea level, water temperature, salinity, oxygen concentration); - data bases of mathematical model outputs - forecast data (sea level, currents); - ice conditions of the Baltic Sea, - instructions, information materials with information of polish coastal zone. The aim of set up of the portal is development of communication between users of the system, exchange of the knowledge of marine environment and natural hazards such as storm surges, improving the ability of the region in the scope of the data management about the sea environment and the coastal zone.

  3. Impact of performance interdependencies on structural vulnerability: A systems perspective of storm surge risk to coastal residential communities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hatzikyriakou, Adam; Lin, Ning

    2017-01-01

    Interaction between residential structures during natural hazards can lead to interdependencies in their performance. During storm surge, for example, structures can affect the performance of inland buildings by generating damaging waterborne debris or by beneficially dampening surge loads. Quantifying the impact of this interaction on structural vulnerability is critical for risk assessment and informed decision-making. In this study we present and implement two general modeling approaches for investigating such interdependencies. The first method is to condition the vulnerability of a structure on the performance of neighboring buildings using a Markov model. The second uses a marginal model to account for correlation between damage observations when estimating a structure's vulnerability to the hazard. Both approaches are implemented using a case study of an impacted coastal community during Hurricane Sandy (2012). Findings indicate that a structure's performance during storm surge is strongly dependent on the damage state of the structure immediately seaward. Furthermore, considering the correlated damage states of buildings increases statistical uncertainty when relating structural performance to hazard intensity. Motivated by these findings, we propose a more coordinated approach to coastal risk mitigation which considers the effects of interdependencies on insurance pricing, structural design, mitigation strategies and community resilience. - Highlights: • Interaction between residential structures leads to performance interdependencies. • Interdependencies during storm surge are due to debris and structural shielding. • Markov model treats interdependencies as an additional demand parameter. • Marginal model incorporates damage correlation into regression estimation. • System behavior should be considered in community risk and resilience.

  4. Monitoring duration and extent of storm-surge and flooding in Western Coastal Louisiana marshes with Envisat ASAR data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramsey, E.; Lu, Z.; Suzuoki, Y.; Rangoonwala, A.; Werle, D.

    2011-01-01

    Inundation maps of coastal marshes in western Louisiana were created with multitemporal Envisat Advanced Synthetic Aperture (ASAR) scenes collected before and during the three months after Hurricane Rita landfall in September 2005. Corroborated by inland water-levels, 7 days after landfall, 48% of coastal estuarine and palustrine marshes remained inundated by storm-surge waters. Forty-five days after landfall, storm-surge inundated 20% of those marshes. The end of the storm-surge flooding was marked by an abrupt decrease in water levels following the passage of a storm front and persistent offshore winds. A complementary dramatic decrease in flood extent was confirmed by an ASAR-derived inundation map. In nonimpounded marshes at elevations ;80 cm during the first month after Rita landfall. After this initial period, drainage from marshes-especially impounded marshes-was hastened by the onset of offshore winds. Following the abrupt drops in inland water levels and flood extent, rainfall events coinciding with increased water levels were recorded as inundation re-expansion. This postsurge flooding decreased until only isolated impounded and palustrine marshes remained inundated. Changing flood extents were correlated to inland water levels and largely occurred within the same marsh regions. Trends related to incremental threshold increases used in the ASAR change-detection analyses seemed related to the preceding hydraulic and hydrologic events, and VV and HH threshold differences supported their relationship to the overall wetland hydraulic condition.

  5. Developing an early warning system for storm surge inundation in the Philippines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tablazon, J.; Caro, C. V.; Lagmay, A. M. F.; Briones, J. B. L.; Dasallas, L.; Lapidez, J. P.; Santiago, J.; Suarez, J. K.; Ladiero, C.; Gonzalo, L. A.; Mungcal, M. T. F.; Malano, V.

    2014-10-01

    A storm surge is the sudden rise of sea water generated by an approaching storm, over and above the astronomical tides. This event imposes a major threat in the Philippine coastal areas, as manifested by Typhoon Haiyan on 8 November 2013 where more than 6000 people lost their lives. It has become evident that the need to develop an early warning system for storm surges is of utmost importance. To provide forecasts of the possible storm surge heights of an approaching typhoon, the Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards under the Department of Science and Technology (DOST-Project NOAH) simulated historical tropical cyclones that entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility. Bathymetric data, storm track, central atmospheric pressure, and maximum wind speed were used as parameters for the Japan Meteorological Agency Storm Surge Model. The researchers calculated the frequency distribution of maximum storm surge heights of all typhoons under a specific Public Storm Warning Signal (PSWS) that passed through a particular coastal area. This determines the storm surge height corresponding to a given probability of occurrence. The storm surge heights from the model were added to the maximum astronomical tide data from WXTide software. The team then created maps of probable area inundation and flood levels of storm surges along coastal areas for a specific PSWS using the results of the frequency distribution. These maps were developed from the time series data of the storm tide at 10 min intervals of all observation points in the Philippines. This information will be beneficial in developing early warnings systems, static maps, disaster mitigation and preparedness plans, vulnerability assessments, risk-sensitive land use plans, shoreline defense efforts, and coastal protection measures. Moreover, these will support the local government units' mandate to raise public awareness, disseminate information about storm surge hazards, and implement appropriate counter

  6. The Development of Storm Surge Ensemble Prediction System and Case Study of Typhoon Meranti in 2016

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsai, Y. L.; Wu, T. R.; Terng, C. T.; Chu, C. H.

    2017-12-01

    Taiwan is under the threat of storm surge and associated inundation, which is located at a potentially severe storm generation zone. The use of ensemble prediction can help forecasters to know the characteristic of storm surge under the uncertainty of track and intensity. In addition, it can help the deterministic forecasting. In this study, the kernel of ensemble prediction system is based on COMCOT-SURGE (COrnell Multi-grid COupled Tsunami Model - Storm Surge). COMCOT-SURGE solves nonlinear shallow water equations in Open Ocean and coastal regions with the nested-grid scheme and adopts wet-dry-cell treatment to calculate potential inundation area. In order to consider tide-surge interaction, the global TPXO 7.1 tide model provides the tidal boundary conditions. After a series of validations and case studies, COMCOT-SURGE has become an official operating system of Central Weather Bureau (CWB) in Taiwan. In this study, the strongest typhoon in 2016, Typhoon Meranti, is chosen as a case study. We adopt twenty ensemble members from CWB WRF Ensemble Prediction System (CWB WEPS), which differs from parameters of microphysics, boundary layer, cumulus, and surface. From box-and-whisker results, maximum observed storm surges were located in the interval of the first and third quartile at more than 70 % gauge locations, e.g. Toucheng, Chengkung, and Jiangjyun. In conclusion, the ensemble prediction can effectively help forecasters to predict storm surge especially under the uncertainty of storm track and intensity

  7. Storm surge in the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea: The problem and its prediction

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Dube, S.K.; Rao, A.D.; Sinha, P.C.; Murty, T.S.; Bahulayan, N.

    to annual economic losses in these countries. Thus, the real time monitoring and warning of storm surge is of great concern for this region. The goal of this paper is to provide an overview of major aspects of the storm surge problem in the Bay of Bengal...

  8. Comparison of two recent storm surge events based on results of field surveys

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakamura, Ryota; Shibayama, Tomoya; Mikami, Takahito; Esteban, Miguel; Takagi, Hiroshi; Maell, Martin; Iwamoto, Takumu

    2017-10-01

    This paper compares two different types of storm surge disaster based on field surveys. Two cases: a severe storm surge flood with its height of over 5 m due to Typhoon Haiyan (2013) in Philippine, and inundation of storm surge around Nemuro city in Hokkaido of Japan with its maximum surge height of 2.8 m caused by extra-tropical cyclone are taken as examples. For the case of the Typhoon Haiyan, buildings located in coastal region were severely affected due to a rapidly increase in ocean surface. The non-engineering buildings were partially or completely destroyed due to their debris transported to an inner bay region. In fact, several previous reports indicated two unique features, bore-like wave and remarkably high speed currents. These characteristics of the storm surge may contribute to a wide-spread corruption for the buildings around the affected region. Furthermore, in the region where the surge height was nearly 3 m, the wooden houses were completely or partially destroyed. On the other hand, in Nemuro city, a degree of suffering in human and facility caused by the storm surge is minor. There was almost no partially destroyed residential houses even though the height of storm surge reached nearly 2.8 m. An observation in the tide station in Nemuro indicated that this was a usual type of storm surge, which showed a gradual increase of sea level height in several hours without possessing the unique characteristics like Typhoon Haiyan. As a result, not only the height of storm surge but also the robustness of the buildings and characteristics of storm surge, such as bore like wave and strong currents, determined the existent of devastation in coastal regions.

  9. Predicting Typhoon Induced Storm Surges Using the Operational Ocean Forecast System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sung Hyup You

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available This study was performed to compare storm surges simulated by the operational storm surges/tide forecast system (STORM : Storm surges/Tide Operational Model of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA with observations from 30 coastal tidal stations during nine typhoons that occurred between 2005 and 2007. The results (bias showed that for cases of overestimation (or underestimation, storm surges tended to be overestimated (as well as underestimated at all coastal stations. The maximum positive bias was approximately 6.92 cm for Typhoon Ewiniar (2006, while the maximum negative bias was approximately -12.06 cm for Typhoon Khanun (2005. The maximum and minimum root mean square errors (RMSEs were 14.61 and 6.78 cm, which occurred for Typhoons Khanun (2005 and Usagi (2007, respectively. For all nine typhoons, total averaged RMSE was approximately 10.2 cm. Large differences between modeled and observed storm surges occurred in two cases. In the first, a very weak typhoon, such as Typhoon Khanun (2005, caused low storm surges. In the other, exemplified by Typhoon Nari (2007, there were errors in the predicted typhoon strength used as input data for the storm surge model.

  10. Weathering the storm: hurricanes and birth outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Currie, Janet; Rossin-Slater, Maya

    2013-05-01

    A growing literature suggests that stressful events in pregnancy can have negative effects on birth outcomes. Some of the estimates in this literature may be affected by small samples, omitted variables, endogenous mobility in response to disasters, and errors in the measurement of gestation, as well as by a mechanical correlation between longer gestation and the probability of having been exposed. We use millions of individual birth records to examine the effects of exposure to hurricanes during pregnancy, and the sensitivity of the estimates to these econometric problems. We find that exposure to a hurricane during pregnancy increases the probability of abnormal conditions of the newborn such as being on a ventilator more than 30min and meconium aspiration syndrome (MAS). Although we are able to reproduce previous estimates of effects on birth weight and gestation, our results suggest that measured effects of stressful events on these outcomes are sensitive to specification and it is preferable to use more sensitive indicators of newborn health. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. The Surge, Wave, and Tide Hydrodynamics (SWaTH) network of the U.S. Geological Survey—Past and future implementation of storm-response monitoring, data collection, and data delivery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verdi, Richard J.; Lotspeich, R. Russell; Robbins, Jeanne C.; Busciolano, Ronald J.; Mullaney, John R.; Massey, Andrew J.; Banks, William S.; Roland, Mark A.; Jenter, Harry L.; Peppler, Marie C.; Suro, Thomas P.; Schubert, Christopher E.; Nardi, Mark R.

    2017-06-20

    After Hurricane Sandy made landfall along the northeastern Atlantic coast of the United States on October 29, 2012, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) carried out scientific investigations to assist with protecting coastal communities and resources from future flooding. The work included development and implementation of the Surge, Wave, and Tide Hydrodynamics (SWaTH) network consisting of more than 900 monitoring stations. The SWaTH network was designed to greatly improve the collection and timely dissemination of information related to storm surge and coastal flooding. The network provides a significant enhancement to USGS data-collection capabilities in the region impacted by Hurricane Sandy and represents a new strategy for observing and monitoring coastal storms, which should result in improved understanding, prediction, and warning of storm-surge impacts and lead to more resilient coastal communities.As innovative as it is, SWaTH evolved from previous USGS efforts to collect storm-surge data needed by others to improve storm-surge modeling, warning, and mitigation. This report discusses the development and implementation of the SWaTH network, and some of the regional stories associated with the landfall of Hurricane Sandy, as well as some previous events that informed the SWaTH development effort. Additional discussions on the mechanics of inundation and how the USGS is working with partners to help protect coastal communities from future storm impacts are also included.

  12. Identification of Storm Surge Vulnerable Areas in the Philippines Through Simulations of Typhoon Haiyan-Induced Storm Surge Using Tracks of Historical Tropical Cyclones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lapidez, John Phillip; Suarez, John Kenneth; Tablazon, Judd; Dasallas, Lea; Gonzalo, Lia Anne; Santiago, Joy; Cabacaba, Krichi May; Ramos, Michael Marie Angelo; Mahar Francisco Lagmay, Alfredo; Malano, Vicente

    2014-05-01

    Super Typhoon Haiyan entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) 07 November 2013, causing tremendous damage to infrastructure and loss of lives mainly due to the typhoon's storm surge and strong winds. Storm surges up to a height of 7 meters were reported in the hardest hit areas. The threat imposed by this kind of natural calamity compelled researchers of the Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards, the flagship disaster mitigation program of the Department of Science and Technology, Government of the Philippines, to undertake a study to determine the vulnerability of all Philippine coastal communities to storm surges of the same magnitude as those generated by Haiyan. This study calculates the maximum probable storm surge height for every coastal locality by running simulations of Haiyan-type conditions but with tracks of tropical cyclones that entered PAR from 1948-2013. DOST-Project NOAH used the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) Storm Surge Model, a numerical code that simulates and predicts storm surges spawned by tropical cyclones. Input parameters for the storm surge model include bathymetric data, storm track, central atmospheric pressure, and maximum wind speed. The simulations were made using Haiyan's pressure and wind speed as the forcing parameters. The simulated storm surge height values were added to the maximum tide level obtained from WXTide, software that contains a catalogue of worldwide astronomical tides, to come up with storm tide levels. The resulting water level was used as input to FLO-2D to generate the storm tide inundation maps. One product of this study is a list of the most vulnerable coastal areas that can be used as basis for choosing priority sites for further studies to implement appropriate site-specific solutions. Another product is the storm tide inundation maps that the local government units can use to develop a Risk-Sensitive Land Use Plan for identifying appropriate areas to build residential buildings

  13. HURRICANE AND SEVERE STORM SENTINEL (HS3) FLIGHT REPORTS V1

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3) Flight Reports provide information about flights flown by the WB-57 and Global Hawk aircrafts during the Hurricane and...

  14. Idealised modelling of storm surges in large-scale coastal basins

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chen, Wenlong

    2015-01-01

    Coastal areas around the world are frequently attacked by various types of storms, threatening human life and property. This study aims to understand storm surge processes in large-scale coastal basins, particularly focusing on the influences of geometry, topography and storm characteristics on the

  15. Joint projections of sea level and storm surge using a flood index

    Science.gov (United States)

    Little, C. M.; Lin, N.; Horton, R. M.; Kopp, R. E.; Oppenheimer, M.

    2016-02-01

    Capturing the joint influence of sea level rise (SLR) and tropical cyclones (TCs) on future coastal flood risk poses significant challenges. To address these difficulties, Little et al. (2015) use a proxy of tropical cyclone activity and a probabilistic flood index that aggregates flood height and duration over a wide area (the US East and Gulf coasts). This technique illuminates the individual impacts of TCs and SLR and their correlation across different coupled climate models. By 2080-2099, changes in the flood index relative to 1986-2005 are substantial and positively skewed: a 10th-90th percentile range of 35-350x higher for a high-end business-as-usual emissions scenario (see figure). This aggregated flood index: 1) is a means to consistently combine TC-driven storm surges and SLR; 2) provides a more robust description of historical surge-climate relationships than is available at any one location; and 3) allows the incorporation of a larger climate model ensemble - which is critical to uncertainty characterization. It does not provide a local view of the complete spectrum of flood severity (i.e. return curves). However, alternate techniques that provide localized return curves (e.g. Lin et al., 2012) are computationally intensive, limiting the set of large-scale climate models that can be incorporated, and require several linked statistical and dynamical models, each with structural uncertainties that are difficult to quantify. Here, we present the results of Little et al. (2015) along with: 1) alternate formulations of the flood index; 2) strategies to localize the flood index; and 3) a comparison of flood index projections to those provided by model-based return curves. We look to this interdisciplinary audience for feedback on the advantages and disadvantages of each tool for coastal planning and decision-making. Lin, N., K. Emanuel, M. Oppenheimer, and E. Vanmarcke, 2012: Physically based assessment of hurricane surge threat under climate change. Nature

  16. Effect of hurricanes and violent storms on salt marsh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leonardi, N.; Ganju, N. K.; Fagherazzi, S.

    2016-12-01

    Salt marsh losses have been documented worldwide because of land use change, wave erosion, and sea-level rise. It is still unclear how resistant salt marshes are to extreme storms and whether they can survive multiple events without collapsing. Based on a large dataset of salt marsh lateral erosion rates collected around the world, here, we determine the general response of salt marsh boundaries to wave action under normal and extreme weather conditions. As wave energy increases, salt marsh response to wind waves remains linear, and there is not a critical threshold in wave energy above which salt marsh erosion drastically accelerates. We apply our general formulation for salt marsh erosion to historical wave climates at eight salt marsh locations affected by hurricanes in the United States. Based on the analysis of two decades of data, we find that violent storms and hurricanes contribute less than 1% to long-term salt marsh erosion rates. In contrast, moderate storms with a return period of 2.5 mo are those causing the most salt marsh deterioration. Therefore, salt marshes seem more susceptible to variations in mean wave energy rather than changes in the extremes. The intrinsic resistance of salt marshes to violent storms and their predictable erosion rates during moderate events should be taken into account by coastal managers in restoration projects and risk management plans.

  17. Effect of Tide Elevation on Extratropical Storm Surge in Northwest Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keshtpoor, M.; Carnacina, I.; Yablonsky, R. M.

    2016-12-01

    Extratropical cyclones (ETCs) are the major storm surge-generating meteorological events in northwest Europe. The total water level increase induced by these ETCs is significantly influenced by the local tidal range, which exceeds 8 meters along the southwestern UK coastline. In particular, a surge-generating ETC during high tide may put coastal assets and infrastructure in risk. Also, during low tide, the risk of surge induced by extreme ETC events is diminished. Here, the effect of tidal elevation on storm surge is investigated at 196 tide gauges in northwest Europe. A numerical, hydrodynamic model was developed using Delft3D-FM framework to simulate the coastal hydrodynamics during ETCs. Then, 1750 historical events were simulated to investigate the pattern of coastal inundation. Results suggest that in areas with a large tidal range ( 8 meters) and during the time period surrounding high or low tide, the pattern of coastal hydrodynamics is governed by tide and not storm surge. This result is most evident near the English Channel and Bristol Channel, where low frequency maximum water levels are observed when storm surge is combined with high tide. In contrast, near the tidal phase reversal, coastal hydrodynamics responds primarily to the storm surge, and low frequency maximum water elevation largely depends on the surge. In the areas with a small tidal range, ETC strength determines the pattern of coastal inundation.

  18. Assessing economic impact of storm surge under projected sea level rise scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Del Angel, D. C.; Yoskowitz, D.

    2017-12-01

    Global sea level is expected to rise 0.2-2m by the year 2100. Rising sea level is expected to have a number of impacts such as erosion, saltwater intrusion, and decline in coastal wetlands; all which have direct and indirect socio-economic impact to coastal communities. By 2050, 25% of the world's population will reside within flood-prone areas. These statistics raise a concern for the economic cost that sea level and flooding has on the growing coastal communities. Economic cost of storm surge inundation and rising seas may include loss or damage to public facilities and infrastructure that may become temporarily inaccessible, as well as disruptions to business and services. This goal of this project is to assess economic impacts of storms under four SLR scenarios including low, intermediate-low, intermediate-high, and high (0.2m, 0.5m, 1.2m and 2m, respectively) in the Northern Gulf of Mexico region. To assess flooding impact on communities from storm surge, this project utilizes HAZUS-MH software - a Geographic Information System (GIS)-based modeling tool developed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency - to estimate physical, economic, and social impacts of natural disasters such as floods, earthquakes and hurricanes. The HAZUS database comes integrated with aggregate and site specific inventory which includes: demographic data, general building stock, agricultural statistics, vehicle inventory, essential facilities, transportation systems, utility systems (among other sensitive facilities). User-defined inundation scenarios will serve to identify assets at risk and damage estimates will be generated using the Depth Damage Function included in the HAZUS software. Results will focus on 3 communities in the Gulf and highlight changes in storm flood impact. This approach not only provides a method for economic impact assessment but also begins to create a link between ecosystem services and natural and nature-based features such as wetlands, beaches and dunes

  19. Measuring the Storm: Methods of Quantifying Hurricane Exposure in Public Health

    Science.gov (United States)

    Increasing coastal populations and storm intensity may lead to more adverse health effects from tropical storms and hurricanes. Exposure during pregnancy can influence birth outcomes through mechanisms related to healthcare, infrastructure disruption, stress, nutrition, and inju...

  20. A Basis Function Approach to Simulate Storm Surge Events for Coastal Flood Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Wenyan; Westra, Seth; Leonard, Michael

    2017-04-01

    Storm surge is a significant contributor to flooding in coastal and estuarine regions, especially when it coincides with other flood producing mechanisms, such as extreme rainfall. Therefore, storm surge has always been a research focus in coastal flood risk assessment. Often numerical models have been developed to understand storm surge events for risk assessment (Kumagai et al. 2016; Li et al. 2016; Zhang et al. 2016) (Bastidas et al. 2016; Bilskie et al. 2016; Dalledonne and Mayerle 2016; Haigh et al. 2014; Kodaira et al. 2016; Lapetina and Sheng 2015), and assess how these events may change or evolve in the future (Izuru et al. 2015; Oey and Chou 2016). However, numeric models often require a lot of input information and difficulties arise when there are not sufficient data available (Madsen et al. 2015). Alternative, statistical methods have been used to forecast storm surge based on historical data (Hashemi et al. 2016; Kim et al. 2016) or to examine the long term trend in the change of storm surge events, especially under climate change (Balaguru et al. 2016; Oh et al. 2016; Rueda et al. 2016). In these studies, often the peak of surge events is used, which result in the loss of dynamic information within a tidal cycle or surge event (i.e. a time series of storm surge values). In this study, we propose an alternative basis function (BF) based approach to examine the different attributes (e.g. peak and durations) of storm surge events using historical data. Two simple two-parameter BFs were used: the exponential function and the triangular function. High quality hourly storm surge record from 15 tide gauges around Australia were examined. It was found that there are significantly location and seasonal variability in the peak and duration of storm surge events, which provides additional insights in coastal flood risk. In addition, the simple form of these BFs allows fast simulation of storm surge events and minimises the complexity of joint probability

  1. Hurricane impacts on coastal wetlands: a half-century record of storm-generated features from southern Louisiana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morton, Robert A.; Barras, John A.

    2011-01-01

    Temporally and spatially repeated patterns of wetland erosion, deformation, and deposition are observed on remotely sensed images and in the field after hurricanes cross the coast of Louisiana. The diagnostic morphological wetland features are products of the coupling of high-velocity wind and storm-surge water and their interaction with the underlying, variably resistant, wetland vegetation and soils. Erosional signatures include construction of orthogonal-elongate ponds and amorphous ponds, pond expansion, plucked marsh, marsh denudation, and shoreline erosion. Post-storm gravity reflux of floodwater draining from the wetlands forms dendritic incisions around the pond margins and locally integrates drainage pathways forming braided channels. Depositional signatures include emplacement of broad zones of organic wrack on topographic highs and inorganic deposits of variable thicknesses and lateral extents in the form of shore-parallel sandy washover terraces and interior-marsh mud blankets. Deformational signatures primarily involve laterally compressed marsh and displaced marsh mats and balls. Prolonged water impoundment and marsh salinization also are common impacts associated with wetland flooding by extreme storms. Many of the wetland features become legacies that record prior storm impacts and locally influence subsequent storm-induced morphological changes. Wetland losses caused by hurricane impacts depend directly on impact duration, which is controlled by the diameter of hurricane-force winds, forward speed of the storm, and wetland distance over which the storm passes. Distinguishing between wetland losses caused by storm impacts and losses associated with long-term delta-plain processes is critical for accurate modeling and prediction of future conversion of land to open water.

  2. Numerical modelling of tides and storm surges in the Bay of Bengal

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Sindhu, B.

    were done. A storm surge model was developed to simulate total water levels and derived surges caused by low pressure systems identified during the past 27 years (1974-2000) in the Bay of Bengal. Study also estimated the return levels of extreme sea...

  3. Parameter sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for a storm surge and wave model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. A. Bastidas

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Development and simulation of synthetic hurricane tracks is a common methodology used to estimate hurricane hazards in the absence of empirical coastal surge and wave observations. Such methods typically rely on numerical models to translate stochastically generated hurricane wind and pressure forcing into coastal surge and wave estimates. The model output uncertainty associated with selection of appropriate model parameters must therefore be addressed. The computational overburden of probabilistic surge hazard estimates is exacerbated by the high dimensionality of numerical surge and wave models. We present a model parameter sensitivity analysis of the Delft3D model for the simulation of hazards posed by Hurricane Bob (1991 utilizing three theoretical wind distributions (NWS23, modified Rankine, and Holland. The sensitive model parameters (of 11 total considered include wind drag, the depth-induced breaking γB, and the bottom roughness. Several parameters show no sensitivity (threshold depth, eddy viscosity, wave triad parameters, and depth-induced breaking αB and can therefore be excluded to reduce the computational overburden of probabilistic surge hazard estimates. The sensitive model parameters also demonstrate a large number of interactions between parameters and a nonlinear model response. While model outputs showed sensitivity to several parameters, the ability of these parameters to act as tuning parameters for calibration is somewhat limited as proper model calibration is strongly reliant on accurate wind and pressure forcing data. A comparison of the model performance with forcings from the different wind models is also presented.

  4. Modeling Flood Inundation Induced by River Flow and Storm Surges over a River Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei-Bo Chen

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Low-lying coastal regions and their populations are at risk during storm surge events and high freshwater discharges from upriver. An integrated storm surge and flood inundation modeling system was used to simulate storm surge and inundation in the Tsengwen River basin and the adjacent coastal area in southern Taiwan. A three-dimensional hydrodynamic model with an unstructured grid was used, which was driven by the tidal elevation at the open boundaries and freshwater discharge at the upriver boundary. The model was validated against the observed water levels for three typhoon events. The simulation results for the model were in reasonable agreement with the observational data. The model was then applied to investigate the effects of a storm surge, freshwater discharge, and a storm surge combined with freshwater discharge during an extreme typhoon event. The super Typhoon Haiyan (2013 was artificially shifted to hit Taiwan: the modeling results showed that the inundation area and depth would cause severe overbank flow and coastal flooding for a 200 year return period flow. A high-resolution grid model is essential for the accurate simulation of storm surges and inundation.

  5. Multi-proxy Characterization of Two Recent Storm Deposits Attributed to Hurricanes Rita and Ike in the Chenier Plain of Southwestern Louisiana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yao, Q.; Liu, K. B.; Ryu, J.

    2017-12-01

    The Chenier Plain in southwestern Louisiana owes its origin to dynamic depositional processes that are dominated by delta-switching of the Mississippi River to the east, while frequent hurricane activities also play an important role in its geomorphology and sedimentary history. However, despite several studies in the literature, the sediment-stratigraphic characteristics of recent or historic hurricane deposits are still not well documented from the Chenier Plain. In 2005 and 2008, Hurricane Rita (category 3) and Ike (category 2) made landfall on the coasts of Louisiana and Texas. Remote sensing images confirm that the Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, located at the east end of the Louisiana Chenier Plain, was heavily impacted by both hurricanes. We analyzed the lithology and chemical stratigraphy of three 30 cm sediment monoliths (ROC-1, ROC-2, and ROC-3) recovered from a coastal saltmarsh in the Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge to identify the event deposits attributed to these two storms. Each monolith contains 2 distinct light-colored clastic sediment layers imbedded in brown organic clay. The loss-on-ignition and X-ray fluorescence results show that the hurricane layers have increased contents of Ca, Sr, Zr, and carbonates and decreased contents of water and organics. Surprisingly, despite its greater intensity and more severe impacts, Hurricane Rita left a much thinner storm deposit than did Hurricane Ike in all monoliths. Satellite data reveal that Hurricane Rita caused significant coastal erosion and shoreline recession, rendering the sampling sites much closer to the beach and ocean and therefore more prone to storm surges and overwash deposition than when Hurricane Ike struck three years later. Our results suggest that site-to-sea distance, which affects a study site's paleotempestological sensitivity, can play a bigger role in affecting the thicknesses of storm deposits than the intensity of the hurricane.

  6. A probabilistic approach for assessing the vulnerability of transportation infrastructure to flooding from sea level rise and storm surge.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Douglas, E. M.; Kirshen, P. H.; Bosma, K.; Watson, C.; Miller, S.; McArthur, K.

    2015-12-01

    There now exists a plethora of information attesting to the reality of our changing climate and its impacts on both human and natural systems. There also exists a growing literature linking climate change impacts and transportation infrastructure (highways, bridges, tunnels, railway, shipping ports, etc.) which largely agrees that the nation's transportation systems are vulnerable. To assess this vulnerability along the coast, flooding due to sea level rise and storm surge has most commonly been evaluated by simply increasing the water surface elevation and then estimating flood depth by comparing the new water surface elevation with the topographic elevations of the land surface. While this rudimentary "bathtub" approach may provide a first order identification of potential areas of vulnerability, accurate assessment requires a high resolution, physically-based hydrodynamic model that can simulate inundation due to the combined effects of sea level rise, storm surge, tides and wave action for site-specific locations. Furthermore, neither the "bathtub" approach nor other scenario-based approaches can quantify the probability of flooding due to these impacts. We developed a high resolution coupled ocean circulation-wave model (ADCIRC/SWAN) that utilizes a Monte Carlo approach for predicting the depths and associated exceedance probabilities of flooding due to both tropical (hurricanes) and extra-tropical storms under current and future climate conditions. This required the development of an entirely new database of meteorological forcing (e.g. pressure, wind speed, etc.) for historical Nor'easters in the North Atlantic basin. Flooding due to hurricanes and Nor'easters was simulated separately and then composite flood probability distributions were developed. Model results were used to assess the vulnerability of the Central Artery/Tunnel system in Boston, Massachusetts to coastal flooding now and in the future. Local and regional adaptation strategies were

  7. On the improvement of wave and storm surge hindcasts by downscaled atmospheric forcing: application to historical storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bresson, Émilie; Arbogast, Philippe; Aouf, Lotfi; Paradis, Denis; Kortcheva, Anna; Bogatchev, Andrey; Galabov, Vasko; Dimitrova, Marieta; Morvan, Guillaume; Ohl, Patrick; Tsenova, Boryana; Rabier, Florence

    2018-04-01

    Winds, waves and storm surges can inflict severe damage in coastal areas. In order to improve preparedness for such events, a better understanding of storm-induced coastal flooding episodes is necessary. To this end, this paper highlights the use of atmospheric downscaling techniques in order to improve wave and storm surge hindcasts. The downscaling techniques used here are based on existing European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reanalyses (ERA-20C, ERA-40 and ERA-Interim). The results show that the 10 km resolution data forcing provided by a downscaled atmospheric model gives a better wave and surge hindcast compared to using data directly from the reanalysis. Furthermore, the analysis of the most extreme mid-latitude cyclones indicates that a four-dimensional blending approach improves the whole process, as it assimilates more small-scale processes in the initial conditions. Our approach has been successfully applied to ERA-20C (the 20th century reanalysis).

  8. Effects of cluster land reclamation projects on storm surge in Jiaojiang Estuary, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhi-lin Sun

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Variations in coastline geometry caused by coastal engineering affect tides, storm surges, and storm tides. Three cluster land reclamation projects have been planned for construction in the Jiaojiang Estuary during the period from 2011 to 2023. They will cause significant changes in coastline geometry. In this study, a surge-tide coupled model was established based on a three-dimensional finite-volume coastal ocean model (FVCOM. A series of numerical experiments were carried out to investigate the effects of variations in coastline geometry on tides, storm surges, and storm tides. This model was calibrated using data observed at the Haimen and Ruian gauge stations and then used to reproduce the tides, storm surges, and storm tides in the Jiaojiang Estuary caused by Typhoon Winnie in 1997. Results show that the high tide level, peak storm surge, and high storm tide level at the Haimen Gauge Station increased along with the completion of reclamation projects, and the maximum increments caused by the third project were 0.13 m, 0.50 m, and 0.43 m, respectively. The envelopes with maximum storm tide levels of 7.0 m and 8.0 m inside the river mouth appeared to move seaward, with the latter shifting 1.8 km, 3.3 km, and 4.4 km due to the first project, second project, and third project, respectively. The results achieved in this study contribute to reducing the effects of, and preventing storm disasters after the land reclamation in the Jiaojiang Estuary.

  9. Potential Hydrodynamic Loads on Coastal Bridges in the Greater New York Area due to Extreme Storm Surge and Wave

    Science.gov (United States)

    2018-04-18

    This project makes a computer modeling study on vulnerability of coastal bridges in New York City (NYC) metropolitan region to storm surges and waves. Prediction is made for potential surges and waves in the region and consequent hydrodynamic load an...

  10. The Use of a Statistical Model of Storm Surge as a Bias Correction for Dynamical Surge Models and its Applicability along the U.S. East Coast

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haydee Salmun

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available The present study extends the applicability of a statistical model for prediction of storm surge originally developed for The Battery, NY in two ways: I. the statistical model is used as a biascorrection for operationally produced dynamical surge forecasts, and II. the statistical model is applied to the region of the east coast of the U.S. susceptible to winter extratropical storms. The statistical prediction is based on a regression relation between the “storm maximum” storm surge and the storm composite significant wave height predicted ata nearby location. The use of the statistical surge prediction as an alternative bias correction for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA operational storm surge forecasts is shownhere to be statistically equivalent to the existing bias correctiontechnique and potentially applicable for much longer forecast lead times as well as for storm surge climate prediction. Applying the statistical model to locations along the east coast shows that the regression relation can be “trained” with data from tide gauge measurements and near-shore buoys along the coast from North Carolina to Maine, and that it provides accurate estimates of storm surge.

  11. Assessment of storm surge disaster potential for the Andaman Islands

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Kumar, V.S.; RameshBabu, V.; Babu, M.T.; Dhinakaran, G.; Rajamanickam, G.V.

    . Supporting volume 1: math- ematical modelling of cyclone surge and related flooding. In: Cy- clone Damage in Bangladesh. United Nations Centre for Regional Development, pp. 9–37. DHI (Danish Hydraulic Institute), 2002. MIKE 21 Coastal Hydrau- lics...

  12. Tropical cyclone induced asymmetry of sea level surge and fall and its presentation in a storm surge model with parametric wind fields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Machuan; Xie, Lian; Pietrafesa, Leonard J.

    The asymmetry of tropical cyclone induced maximum coastal sea level rise (positive surge) and fall (negative surge) is studied using a three-dimensional storm surge model. It is found that the negative surge induced by offshore winds is more sensitive to wind speed and direction changes than the positive surge by onshore winds. As a result, negative surge is inherently more difficult to forecast than positive surge since there is uncertainty in tropical storm wind forecasts. The asymmetry of negative and positive surge under parametric wind forcing is more apparent in shallow water regions. For tropical cyclones with fixed central pressure, the surge asymmetry increases with decreasing storm translation speed. For those with the same translation speed, a weaker tropical cyclone is expected to gain a higher AI (asymmetry index) value though its induced maximum surge and fall are smaller. With fixed RMW (radius of maximum wind), the relationship between central pressure and AI is heterogeneous and depends on the value of RMW. Tropical cyclone's wind inflow angle can also affect surge asymmetry. A set of idealized cases as well as two historic tropical cyclones are used to illustrate the surge asymmetry.

  13. Adriatic storm surges and related cross-basin sea-level slope

    Science.gov (United States)

    Međugorac, Iva; Orlić, Mirko; Janeković, Ivica; Pasarić, Zoran; Pasarić, Miroslava

    2018-05-01

    Storm surges pose a severe threat to the northernmost cities of the Adriatic coast, with Venice being most prone to flooding. It has been noted that some flooding episodes cause significantly different effects along the eastern and western Adriatic coasts, with indications that the difference is related to cross-basin sea-level slope. The present study aims to determine specific atmospheric conditions under which the slope develops and to explore connection with increased sea level along the two coastlines. The analysis is based on sea-level time series recorded at Venice and Bakar over the 1984-2014 interval, from which 38 most intensive storm-surge episodes were selected, and their meteorological backgrounds (ERA-Interim) were studied. The obtained sea-level extremes were grouped into three categories according to their cross-basin sea-level slope: storm surges that slope strongly westward (W type), those that slope eastward (E type) and ordinary storm surges (O type). Results show that the slope is controlled by wind action only, specifically, by the wind component towards a particular coast and by the cross-basin shear of along-basin wind. Meteorological fields were used to force an oceanographic numerical model in order to confirm the empirically established connection between the atmospheric forcing and the slope. Finally, it has been found that the intensity of storm surges along a particular Adriatic coast is determined by an interplay of sea-level slopes in the along and cross-basin directions.

  14. Risks of Coastal Storm Surge and the Effect of Sea Level Rise in the Red River Delta, Vietnam

    OpenAIRE

    Neumann, James; Ludwig, Lindsay; Verly, Caroleen; Emanuel, Kerry Andrew; Ravela, Srinivas

    2015-01-01

    This paper considers the impact of sea level rise and storm surge on the Red River delta region of Vietnam an area already known to be highly vulnerable to coastal risks. By combining a range of sea level rise scenarios for 2050 with the simulated storm surge level for the 100-year storm surge, we analyze permanently inundated lands and temporary flood zones. As is well-established in the literature, sea level rise will increase the risk of storms by raising the base sea level from which surg...

  15. The analysis of dependence between extreme rainfall and storm surge in the coastal zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, F.; Westra, S.

    2012-12-01

    Flooding in coastal catchments can be caused by runoff generated by an extreme rainfall event, elevated sea levels due to an extreme storm surge event, or the combination of both processes occurring simultaneously or in close succession. Dependence in extreme rainfall and storm surge arises because common meteorological forcings often drive both variables; for example, cyclonic systems may produce extreme rainfall, strong onshore winds and an inverse barometric effect simultaneously, which the former factor influencing catchment discharge and the latter two factors influencing storm surge. Nevertheless there is also the possibility that only one of the variables is extreme at any given time, so that the dependence between rainfall and storm surge is not perfect. Quantification of the strength of dependence between these processes is critical in evaluating the magnitude of flood risk in the coastal zone. This may become more important in the future as the majority of the coastal areas are threatened by the sea level rise due to the climate change. This research uses the most comprehensive record of rainfall and storm surge along the coastline of Australia collected to-date to investigate the strength of dependence between the extreme rainfall and storm surge along the Australia coastline. A bivariate logistic threshold-excess model was employed to this end to carry out the dependence analysis. The strength of the estimated dependence is then evaluated as a function of several factors including: the distance between the tidal gauge and the rain gauge; the lag between the extreme precipitation event and extreme surge event; and the duration of the maximum storm burst. The results show that the dependence between the extreme rainfall and storm surge along the Australia coastline is statistically significant, although some locations clearly exhibit stronger dependence than others. We hypothesize that this is due to a combination of large-scale meteorological effects as

  16. A parabolic model of drag coefficient for storm surge simulation in the South China Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Shiqiu; Li, Yineng

    2015-01-01

    Drag coefficient (Cd) is an essential metric in the calculation of momentum exchange over the air-sea interface and thus has large impacts on the simulation or forecast of the upper ocean state associated with sea surface winds such as storm surges. Generally, Cd is a function of wind speed. However, the exact relationship between Cd and wind speed is still in dispute, and the widely-used formula that is a linear function of wind speed in an ocean model could lead to large bias at high wind speed. Here we establish a parabolic model of Cd based on storm surge observations and simulation in the South China Sea (SCS) through a number of tropical cyclone cases. Simulation of storm surges for independent Tropical cyclones (TCs) cases indicates that the new parabolic model of Cd outperforms traditional linear models. PMID:26499262

  17. Storm surges-An option for Hamburg, Germany, to mitigate expected future aggravation of risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Storch, Hans von; Goennert, Gabriele; Meine, Manfred

    2008-01-01

    Summary: Rising sea level together with regionally increased storm activity, caused by elevated and increasing levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will in many parts of the world increase the risk of storm surges significantly. Reducing the emissions of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere may mitigate the increasing risks somewhat, but the major task for regional and local stakeholders will be to prepare for appropriate adaptation. In most cases, possible strategies include intensification of coastal defense measures, in particular strengthening dykes, and adaptation to intermittent flooding. In case of Hamburg and the tidal Elbe river a third option seems to be available, which aims at mitigating storm surge risks by applying estuary engineering constructions. This option is sketched in this paper. The option has the potential to significantly reduce the expected future increases of local surge heights

  18. A parabolic model of drag coefficient for storm surge simulation in the South China Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Shiqiu; Li, Yineng

    2015-10-01

    Drag coefficient (Cd) is an essential metric in the calculation of momentum exchange over the air-sea interface and thus has large impacts on the simulation or forecast of the upper ocean state associated with sea surface winds such as storm surges. Generally, Cd is a function of wind speed. However, the exact relationship between Cd and wind speed is still in dispute, and the widely-used formula that is a linear function of wind speed in an ocean model could lead to large bias at high wind speed. Here we establish a parabolic model of Cd based on storm surge observations and simulation in the South China Sea (SCS) through a number of tropical cyclone cases. Simulation of storm surges for independent Tropical cyclones (TCs) cases indicates that the new parabolic model of Cd outperforms traditional linear models.

  19. Recent Atlantic Hurricanes, Pacific Super Typhoons, and Tropical Storm Awareness in Underdeveloped Island and Coastal Regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plondke, D. L.

    2017-12-01

    Hurricane Harvey was the first major hurricane to make landfall in the continental U.S. in 12 years. The next tropical storm in the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season was Hurricane Irma, a category 5 storm and the strongest storm to strike the U.S. mainland since Hurricane Wilma in 2005. These two storms were the third and fourth in a sequence of 10 consecutive storms to reach hurricane status in this season that ranks at least seventh among the most active seasons as measured by the Accumulate Cyclone Energy (ACE) index. Assessment of damage from Harvey may prove it to be the costliest storm in U.S. history, approaching $190 billion. Irma was the first category 5 hurricane to hit the Leeward Islands, devastating island environments including Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, Barbuda, Saint Barthelemy, and Anguilla with sustained winds reaching at times 185 mph. Together with the two super typhoons of the 2017 Pacific season, Noru and Lan, the two Atlantic hurricanes rank among the strongest, longest-lasting tropical cyclones on record. How many more billions of dollars will be expended in recovery and reconstruction efforts following future mega-disasters comparable to those of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma? Particularly on Caribbean and tropical Pacific islands with specialized and underdeveloped economies, aging and substandard infrastructure often cannot even partially mitigate against the impacts of major hurricanes. The most frequently used measurements of storm impact are insufficient to assess the economic impact. Analysis of the storm tracks and periods of greatest storm intensity of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, and Super Typhoons Lan and Noru, in spatial relationship with island and coastal administrative regions, shows that rainfall totals, flooded area estimates, and property/infrastructure damage dollar estimates are all quantitative indicators of storm impact, but do not measure the costs that result from lack of storm preparedness and education of residents

  20. Risks of Coastal Storm Surge and the Effect of Sea Level Rise in the Red River Delta, Vietnam

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James E. Neumann

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper considers the impact of sea level rise and storm surge on the Red River delta region of Vietnam. Permanently inundated lands and temporary flood zones are analyzed by combining sea level rise scenarios for 2050 with simulated storm surge levels for the 100-year event. Our analysis finds that sea level rise through 2050 could increase the effective frequency of the current 100-year storm surge, which is associated with a storm surge of roughly five meters, to once every 49 years. Approximately 10% of the Hanoi region’s GDP is vulnerable to permanent inundation due to sea level rise, and more than 40% is vulnerable to periodic storm surge damage consistent with the current 100-year storm. We conclude that coastal adaptation measures, such as a planned retreat from the sea, and construction of a more substantial seawall and dike system, are needed to respond to these threats.

  1. Storm surge evolution and its relationship to climate oscillations at Duck, NC

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munroe, Robert; Curtis, Scott

    2017-07-01

    Coastal communities experience increased vulnerability during storm surge events through the risk of damage to coastal infrastructure, erosion/deposition, and the endangerment of human life. Policy and planning measures attempt to avoid or mitigate storm surge consequences through building codes and setbacks, beach stabilization, insurance rates, and coastal zoning. The coastal emergency management community and public react and respond on shorter time scales, through temporary protection, emergency stockpiling, and evacuation. This study utilizes time series analysis, the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) test, Pearson's correlation, and the generalized extreme value (GEV) theorem to make the connection between climate oscillation indices and storm surge characteristics intra-seasonally to inter-annually. Results indicate that an El Niño (+ENSO), negative phase of the NAO, and positive phase of the PNA pattern all support longer duration and hence more powerful surge events, especially in winter. Increased surge duration increases the likelihood of extensive erosion, inland inundation, among other undesirable effects of the surge hazard.

  2. Storm-surge flooding on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terenzi, John; Ely, Craig R.; Jorgenson, M. Torre

    2014-01-01

    Coastal regions of Alaska are regularly affected by intense storms of ocean origin, the frequency and intensity of which are expected to increase as a result of global climate change. The Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta (YKD), situated in western Alaska on the eastern edge of the Bering Sea, is one of the largest deltaic systems in North America. Its low relief makes it especially susceptible to storm-driven flood tides and increases in sea level. Little information exists on the extent of flooding caused by storm surges in western Alaska and its effects on salinization, shoreline erosion, permafrost thaw, vegetation, wildlife, and the subsistence-based economy. In this paper, we summarize storm flooding events in the Bering Sea region of western Alaska during 1913 – 2011 and map both the extent of inland flooding caused by autumn storms on the central YKD, using Radarsat-1 and MODIS satellite imagery, and the drift lines, using high-resolution IKONOS satellite imagery and field surveys. The largest storm surges occurred in autumn and were associated with high tides and strong (> 65 km hr-1) southwest winds. Maximum inland extent of flooding from storm surges was 30.3 km in 2005, 27.4 km in 2006, and 32.3 km in 2011, with total flood area covering 47.1%, 32.5%, and 39.4% of the 6730 km2 study area, respectively. Peak stages for the 2005 and 2011 storms were 3.1 m and 3.3 m above mean sea level, respectively—almost as high as the 3.5 m amsl elevation estimated for the largest storm observed (in November 1974). Several historically abandoned village sites lie within the area of inundation of the largest flood events. With projected sea level rise, large storms are expected to become more frequent and cover larger areas, with deleterious effects on freshwater ponds, non-saline habitats, permafrost, and landscapes used by nesting birds and local people.

  3. Development of Storm Surge Hazard Maps and Advisory System for the Philippines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santiago, Joy; Mahar Francisco Lagymay, Alfredo; Caro, Carl Vincent; Suarez, John Kenneth; Tablazon, Judd; Dasallas, Lea; Garnet Goting, Prince

    2016-04-01

    The Philippines, located in the most active region of cyclogenesis in the world, experiences an average of 20 tropical cyclones annually. Strong winds brought by tropical cyclones, among other factors, cause storm surges that inundate the coastal areas of the country. As an archipelago with the fourth longest coastline in the world, the country is expose to the threats of storm surges. This was manifested by Typhoon Haiyan on 8 November 2013, which devastated the country and left 6,293 deaths and approximately USD 2 billion worth of damages. To prevent such disaster from happening again, the Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards (Project NOAH) developed a Storm Surge Advisory (SSA) that aims to warn communities in coastal areas against impending floods due to storm surges. The Japan Meteorological Agency storm surge model was used to simulate 721 tropical cyclones that entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility from 1951-2013. The resulting storm surge time series from the simulations were added to the maximum tide levels from the WXTide software for the 4,996 observation points placed nearshore in the entire country. The storm tide levels were categorized into four groups based on their peak height to create the SSA - SSA 1 (0.01m to 2m), SSA 2 (2.01m to 3m), SSA 3 (3.01m to 4m), and SSA 4 (4m and above). The time series for each advisory level was used in inundation modelling using FLO-2D, a two-dimensional flood modeling software that uses continuity and dynamic wave momentum equation. The model produced probable extent, depth of inundation, and hazard level for each advisory level. The SSA hazard maps are used as reference to warn communities that are likely to be affected by storm surges. Advisory is released 24 hours in advance and is updated every six hours in the Project NOAH website. It is also being utilized in the pre-disaster risk assessment of the national government agencies and local government units in designing appropriate response to

  4. The weight of a storm: what observations of Earth surface deformation can tell us about Hurricane Harvey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borsa, A. A.; Mencin, D.; van Dam, T. M.

    2017-12-01

    Hurricane Harvey was the first major hurricane to impact the USA in over a decade, making landfall southwest of Houston, TX on August 26, 2017. Although Harvey was downgraded to a tropical storm shortly after landfall, it dropped a record amount of rain and was responsible for epic flooding across much of southeast Texas. While precipitation from a large storm like Harvey can be estimated from in-situ rain gages and Doppler radar, the accompanying surface water changes that lead to flooding are imperfectly observed due to the limited coverage of existing stream and lake level gages and because floodwaters inundate areas that are typically unmonitored. Earth's response to changes in surface loading provides an opportunity to observe the local hydrological response to Hurricane Harvey, specifically the dramatic changes in water storage coincident with and following the storm. Continuous GPS stations in southeastern Texas observed an average drop in land surface elevations of 1.8 cm following Harvey's landfall, followed by a gradual recovery to pre-storm levels over the following month. We interpret this surface motion as Earth's elastic response to the weight of cumulative rainfall during the storm, followed by rebound as that weight was removed by runoff and evapotranspiration (ET). Using observations of surface displacements from GPS stations in the HoustonNET and Plate Boundary Observatory networks, we model the daily water storage changes across Texas and Louisiana associated with Harvey. Because Harvey's barometric pressure low caused surface uplift at the cm level which temporarily obscured the subsidence signal due to precipitation, we model and remove the effect of atmospheric loading from the GPS data prior to our analysis. We also consider the effect on GPS position time series of non-tidal ocean loading due to the hurricane storm surge, which at the coast was an order of magnitude larger than loads due to precipitation alone. Finally, we use our results to

  5. Comparative risk assessments for the city of Pointe-à-Pitre (French West Indies): earthquakes and storm surge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reveillere, A. R.; Bertil, D. B.; Douglas, J. D.; Grisanti, L. G.; Lecacheux, S. L.; Monfort, D. M.; Modaressi, H. M.; Müller, H. M.; Rohmer, J. R.; Sedan, O. S.

    2012-04-01

    In France, risk assessments for natural hazards are usually carried out separately and decision makers lack comprehensive information. Moreover, since the cause of the hazard (e.g. meteorological, geological) and the physical phenomenon that causes damage (e.g. inundation, ground shaking) may be fundamentally different, the quantitative comparison of single risk assessments that were not conducted in a compatible framework is not straightforward. Comprehensive comparative risk assessments exist in a few other countries. For instance, the Risk Map Germany project has developed and applied a methodology for quantitatively comparing the risk of relevant natural hazards at various scales (city, state) in Germany. The present on-going work applies a similar methodology to the Pointe-à-Pitre urban area, which represents more than half of the population of Guadeloupe, an overseas region in the French West Indies. Relevant hazards as well as hazard intensity levels differ from continental Europe, which will lead to different conclusions. French West Indies are prone to a large number of hazards, among which hurricanes, volcanic eruptions and earthquakes dominate. Hurricanes cause damage through three phenomena: wind, heavy rainfall and storm surge, the latter having had a preeminent role during the largest historical event in 1928. Seismic risk is characterized by many induced phenomena, among which earthquake shocks dominate. This study proposes a comparison of earthquake and cyclonic storm surge risks. Losses corresponding to hazard intensities having the same probability of occurrence are calculated. They are quantified in a common loss unit, chosen to be the direct economic losses. Intangible or indirect losses are not considered. The methodology therefore relies on (i) a probabilistic hazard assessment, (ii) a loss ratio estimation for the exposed elements and (iii) an economic estimation of these assets. Storm surge hazard assessment is based on the selection of

  6. Storm Surge Reconstruction and Return Water Level Estimation in Southeast Asia for the 20th Century

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cid, Alba; Wahl, Thomas; Chambers, Don P.; Muis, Sanne

    2018-01-01

    We present a methodology to reconstruct the daily maximum storm surge levels, obtained from tide gauges, based on the surrounding atmospheric conditions from an atmospheric reanalysis (20th Century Reanalysis-20CR). Tide gauge records in Southeast Asia are relatively short, so this area is often

  7. Building with Nature: in search of resilient storm surge protection strategies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Slobbe, van E.J.J.; Vriend, de H.J.; Aarninkhof, S.G.J.; Lulofs, K.; Vries, de M.; Dircke, P.

    2013-01-01

    Low-lying, densely populated coastal areas worldwide are under threat, requiring coastal managers to develop new strategies to cope with land subsidence, sea-level rise and the increasing risk of storm-surge-induced floods. Traditional engineering approaches optimizing for safety are often

  8. Improving short-range ensemble Kalman storm surge forecasting using robust adaptive inflation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Altaf, M.U.; Butler, T.; Luo, X.; Dawson, C.; Mayo, T.; Hoteit, I.

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a robust ensemble filtering methodology for storm surge forecasting based on the singular evolutive interpolated Kalman (SEIK) filter, which has been implemented in the framework of the H? filter. By design, an H? filter is more robust than the common Kalman filter in the sense

  9. Ebb-tidal delta morphology in response to a storm surge barrier

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Eelkema, M.; Wang, Z.B.; Hibma, A.

    2012-01-01

    The Eastern Scheldt ebb-tidal delta morphology has been adapting for the past 25 years in response to the construction of the Eastern Scheldt storm-surge barrier in 1986. As a result of the barrier, there has been a decrease in tidal amplitudes, volumes, and average flow velocities, and there is

  10. Influence of Closing Storm Surge Barrier on Extreme Water Levels and Water Exchange; The Limfjord, Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nørgaard, Jørgen Quvang Harck; Bentzen, Thomas Ruby; Larsen, Torben

    2014-01-01

    the increased risk of flooding in the estuary has revitalized the discussion whether this connection should be closed. In this paper, it is shown by numerical simulation that the establishment of a storm surge barrier across Thyborøn Channel can significantly reduce the peak water levels in the central...

  11. Improvements of Storm Surge Modelling in the Gulf of Venice with Satellite Data: The ESA Due Esurge-Venice Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Biasio, F.; Bajo, M.; Vignudelli, S.; Papa, A.; della Valle, A.; Umgiesser, G.; Donlon, C.; Zecchetto, S.

    2016-08-01

    Among the most detrimental natural phenomena, storm surges heavily endanger the environment, the economy and the everyday life of sea-side countries and coastal zones. Considering that 120.000.000 people live in the Mediterranean area, with additional 200.000.000 presences in Summer for tourism purposes, the correct prediction of storm surges is crucial to avoid fatalities and economic losses. Earth Observation (EO) can play an important role in operational storm surge forecasting, yet it is not widely diffused in the storm surge community. In 2011 the European Space Agency (ESA), through its Data User Element (DUE) programme, financed two projects aimed at encouraging the uptake of EO data in this sector: eSurge and eSurge-Venice (eSV). The former was intended to address the issues of a wider users' community, while the latter was focused on a restricted geographical area: the northern Adriatic Sea and the Gulf of Venice. Among the objectives of the two projects there were a number of storm surge hindcast experiments using satellite data, to demonstrate the improvements on the surge forecast brought by EO. We report here the results of the hindcast experiments of the eSV project. They were aimed to test the sensitivity of a storm surge model to a forcing wind field modified with scatterometer data in order to reduce the bias between simulated and observed winds. Hindcast experiments were also performed to test the response of the storm surge model to the assimilation, with a dual 4D-Var system, of satellite altimetry observations as model errors of the initial state of the sea surface level. Remarkable improvements on the storm surge forecast have been obtained for what concerns the modified model wind forcing. Encouraging results have been obtained also in the assimilation experiments.

  12. Verification of an ensemble prediction system for storm surge forecast in the Adriatic Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mel, Riccardo; Lionello, Piero

    2014-12-01

    In the Adriatic Sea, storm surges present a significant threat to Venice and to the flat coastal areas of the northern coast of the basin. Sea level forecast is of paramount importance for the management of daily activities and for operating the movable barriers that are presently being built for the protection of the city. In this paper, an EPS (ensemble prediction system) for operational forecasting of storm surge in the northern Adriatic Sea is presented and applied to a 3-month-long period (October-December 2010). The sea level EPS is based on the HYPSE (hydrostatic Padua Sea elevation) model, which is a standard single-layer nonlinear shallow water model, whose forcings (mean sea level pressure and surface wind fields) are provided by the ensemble members of the ECMWF (European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) EPS. Results are verified against observations at five tide gauges located along the Croatian and Italian coasts of the Adriatic Sea. Forecast uncertainty increases with the predicted value of the storm surge and with the forecast lead time. The EMF (ensemble mean forecast) provided by the EPS has a rms (root mean square) error lower than the DF (deterministic forecast), especially for short (up to 3 days) lead times. Uncertainty for short lead times of the forecast and for small storm surges is mainly caused by uncertainty of the initial condition of the hydrodynamical model. Uncertainty for large lead times and large storm surges is mainly caused by uncertainty in the meteorological forcings. The EPS spread increases with the rms error of the forecast. For large lead times the EPS spread and the forecast error substantially coincide. However, the EPS spread in this study, which does not account for uncertainty in the initial condition, underestimates the error during the early part of the forecast and for small storm surge values. On the contrary, it overestimates the rms error for large surge values. The PF (probability forecast) of the EPS

  13. Catastrophe loss modelling of storm-surge flood risk in eastern England.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muir Wood, Robert; Drayton, Michael; Berger, Agnete; Burgess, Paul; Wright, Tom

    2005-06-15

    Probabilistic catastrophe loss modelling techniques, comprising a large stochastic set of potential storm-surge flood events, each assigned an annual rate of occurrence, have been employed for quantifying risk in the coastal flood plain of eastern England. Based on the tracks of the causative extratropical cyclones, historical storm-surge events are categorized into three classes, with distinct windfields and surge geographies. Extreme combinations of "tide with surge" are then generated for an extreme value distribution developed for each class. Fragility curves are used to determine the probability and magnitude of breaching relative to water levels and wave action for each section of sea defence. Based on the time-history of water levels in the surge, and the simulated configuration of breaching, flow is time-stepped through the defences and propagated into the flood plain using a 50 m horizontal-resolution digital elevation model. Based on the values and locations of the building stock in the flood plain, losses are calculated using vulnerability functions linking flood depth and flood velocity to measures of property loss. The outputs from this model for a UK insurance industry portfolio include "loss exceedence probabilities" as well as "average annualized losses", which can be employed for calculating coastal flood risk premiums in each postcode.

  14. Simulating storm surge inundation and damage potential within complex port facilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mawdsley, Robert; French, Jon; Fujiyama, Taku; Achutan, Kamalasudhan

    2017-04-01

    Storm surge inundation of port facilities can cause damage to critical elements of infrastructure, significantly disrupt port operations and cause downstream impacts on vital supply chains. A tidal surge in December 2013 in the North Sea partly flooded the Port of Immingham, which handles the largest volume of bulk cargo in the UK including major flows of coal and biomass for power generation. This flooding caused damage to port and rail transport infrastructure and disrupted operations for several weeks. This research aims to improve resilience to storm surges using hydrodynamic modelling coupled to an agent-based model of port operations. Using the December 2013 event to validate flood extent, depth and duration, we ran a high resolution hydrodynamic simulation using the open source Telemac 2D finite element code. The underlying Digital Elevation Model (DEM) was derived from Environment Agency LiDAR data, with ground truthing of the flood defences along the port frontage. Major infrastructure and buildings are explicitly resolved with varying degrees of permeability. Telemac2D simulations are run in parallel and take only minutes on a single 16 cpu compute node. Inundation characteristics predicted using Telemac 2D differ from a simple Geographical Information System 'bath-tub' analysis of the DEM based upon horizontal application of the maximum water level across the port topography. The hydrodynamic simulation predicts less extensive flooding and more closely matches observed flood extent. It also provides more precise depth and duration curves. Detailed spatial flood depth and duration maps were generated for a range of tide and surge scenarios coupled to mean sea-level rise projections. These inundation scenarios can then be integrated with critical asset databases and an agent-based model of port operation (MARS) that is capable of simulating storm surge disruption along wider supply chains. Port operators are able to act on information from a particular

  15. Analysis and simulation of propagule dispersal and salinity intrusion from storm surge on the movement of a marsh–mangrove ecotone in South Florida

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Jiang; DeAngelis, Donald L.; Anderson, Gordon H.; Smith, Thomas J.

    2014-01-01

    Coastal mangrove–freshwater marsh ecotones of the Everglades represent transitions between marine salt-tolerant halophytic and freshwater salt-intolerant glycophytic communities. It is hypothesized here that a self-reinforcing feedback, termed a “vegetation switch,” between vegetation and soil salinity, helps maintain the sharp mangrove–marsh ecotone. A general theoretical implication of the switch mechanism is that the ecotone will be stable to small disturbances but vulnerable to rapid regime shifts from large disturbances, such as storm surges, which could cause large spatial displacements of the ecotone. We develop a simulation model to describe the vegetation switch mechanism. The model couples vegetation dynamics and hydrologic processes. The key factors in the model are the amount of salt-water intrusion into the freshwater wetland and the passive transport of mangrove (e.g., Rhizophora mangle) viviparous seeds or propagules. Results from the model simulations indicate that a regime shift from freshwater marsh to mangroves is sensitive to the duration of soil salinization through storm surge overwash and to the density of mangrove propagules or seedlings transported into the marsh. We parameterized our model with empirical hydrologic data collected from the period 2000–2010 at one mangrove–marsh ecotone location in southwestern Florida to forecast possible long-term effects of Hurricane Wilma (24 October 2005). The model indicated that the effects of that storm surge were too weak to trigger a regime shift at the sites we studied, 50 km south of the Hurricane Wilma eyewall, but simulations with more severe artificial disturbances were capable of causing substantial regime shifts.

  16. A new deterministic Ensemble Kalman Filter with one-step-ahead smoothing for storm surge forecasting

    KAUST Repository

    Raboudi, Naila

    2016-11-01

    by performing assimilation experiments with the highly nonlinear Lorenz model and a realistic setting of the Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC) model configured for storm surge forecasting in the Gulf of Mexico during Hurricane Ike.

  17. Dependence of US hurricane economic loss on maximum wind speed and storm size

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhai, Alice R; Jiang, Jonathan H

    2014-01-01

    Many empirical hurricane economic loss models consider only wind speed and neglect storm size. These models may be inadequate in accurately predicting the losses of super-sized storms, such as Hurricane Sandy in 2012. In this study, we examined the dependences of normalized US hurricane loss on both wind speed and storm size for 73 tropical cyclones that made landfall in the US from 1988 through 2012. A multi-variate least squares regression is used to construct a hurricane loss model using both wind speed and size as predictors. Using maximum wind speed and size together captures more variance of losses than using wind speed or size alone. It is found that normalized hurricane loss (L) approximately follows a power law relation with maximum wind speed (V max ) and size (R), L = 10 c V max a R b , with c determining an overall scaling factor and the exponents a and b generally ranging between 4–12 and 2–4 respectively. Both a and b tend to increase with stronger wind speed. Hurricane Sandy’s size was about three times of the average size of all hurricanes analyzed. Based on the bi-variate regression model that explains the most variance for hurricanes, Hurricane Sandy’s loss would be approximately 20 times smaller if its size were of the average size with maximum wind speed unchanged. It is important to revise conventional empirical hurricane loss models that are only dependent on maximum wind speed to include both maximum wind speed and size as predictors. (letters)

  18. Prior storm experience moderates water surge perception and risk.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gregory D Webster

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: How accurately do people perceive extreme water speeds and how does their perception affect perceived risk? Prior research has focused on the characteristics of moving water that can reduce human stability or balance. The current research presents the first experiment on people's perceptions of risk and moving water at different speeds and depths. METHODS: Using a randomized within-person 2 (water depth: 0.45, 0.90 m ×3 (water speed: 0.4, 0.8, 1.2 m/s experiment, we immersed 76 people in moving water and asked them to estimate water speed and the risk they felt. RESULTS: Multilevel modeling showed that people increasingly overestimated water speeds as actual water speeds increased or as water depth increased. Water speed perceptions mediated the direct positive relationship between actual water speeds and perceptions of risk; the faster the moving water, the greater the perceived risk. Participants' prior experience with rip currents and tropical cyclones moderated the strength of the actual-perceived water speed relationship; consequently, mediation was stronger for people who had experienced no rip currents or fewer storms. CONCLUSIONS: These findings provide a clearer understanding of water speed and risk perception, which may help communicate the risks associated with anticipated floods and tropical cyclones.

  19. Typhoon Haiyan-Induced Storm Surge Simulation in Metro Manila Using High-Resolution LiDAR Topographic Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santiago, J. T.

    2015-12-01

    Storm surge is the abnormal rise in sea water over and above astronomical tides due to a forthcoming storm. Developing an early warning system for storm surges is vital due to the high level of hazard they might cause. On 08 November 2013, Typhoon Haiyan generated storm surges that killed over 6,000 people in the central part of the Philippines. The Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards under the Department of Science and Technology was tasked to create storm surge hazard maps for the country's coastal areas. The research project aims to generate storm surge hazard maps that can be used for disaster mitigation and planning. As part of the research, the team explored a scenario wherein a tropical cyclone hits the Metro Manila with strength as strong as Typhoon Haiyan. The area was chosen primarily for its political, economic and cultural significance as the country's capital. Using Japan Meteorological Agency Storm Surge model, FLO2D flooding software, LiDAR topographic data, and GIS technology, the effects of a Haiyan-induced tropical cyclone passing through Metro Manila was examined. The population affected, number of affected critical facilities, and potential evacuation sites were identified. The outputs of this study can be used by the authorities as basis for policies that involve disaster risk reduction and management.

  20. Determining Storm Surge Return Periods: The Use of Evidence of Historic Events

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Kristine S.; Sørensen, Carlo Sass; Schmith, Torben

    for tide gauge measurements, with 120 years of data available for the calculations. However, the oldest of these tide gauge stations was set up after a major storm surge in 1872, and no events of similar severity have occurred since. Including the evidence of the historic events from the 18th century...... changes the return period statistics, with a best estimate of a 100 year event changing from 1.5 meters (Sørensen et al. 2013) to 2.6 [2.2 – 2.8] meters (present study) in Køge just south of Copenhagen. Thus, with the tide gauge-based statistics, the storm surge on January 4 2017 was a 100 year event......, but with the revised statistics using historic evidence, much larger events can be expected. Further, we assess the very large impact of sea level rise on the storm surge statistics. As an example, according to the official statistics of southern Copenhagen, the flooding of a present day 100 year event...

  1. Tree Mortality following Prescribed Fire and a Storm Surge Event in Slash Pine (Pinus elliottii var. densa Forests in the Florida Keys, USA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jay P. Sah

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available In fire-dependent forests, managers are interested in predicting the consequences of prescribed burning on postfire tree mortality. We examined the effects of prescribed fire on tree mortality in Florida Keys pine forests, using a factorial design with understory type, season, and year of burn as factors. We also used logistic regression to model the effects of burn season, fire severity, and tree dimensions on individual tree mortality. Despite limited statistical power due to problems in carrying out the full suite of planned experimental burns, associations with tree and fire variables were observed. Post-fire pine tree mortality was negatively correlated with tree size and positively correlated with char height and percent crown scorch. Unlike post-fire mortality, tree mortality associated with storm surge from Hurricane Wilma was greater in the large size classes. Due to their influence on population structure and fuel dynamics, the size-selective mortality patterns following fire and storm surge have practical importance for using fire as a management tool in Florida Keys pinelands in the future, particularly when the threats to their continued existence from tropical storms and sea level rise are expected to increase.

  2. Tree Mortality following Prescribed Fire and a Storm Surge Event in Slash Pine (Pinus elliottii var. densa) Forests in the Florida Keys, USA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sah, J.P.; Ross, M.S.; Ross, M.S.; Ogurcak, D.E.; Snyder, J.R.

    2010-01-01

    In fire-dependent forests, managers are interested in predicting the consequences of prescribed burning on post fire tree mortality. We examined the effects of prescribed fire on tree mortality in Florida Keys pine forests, using a factorial design with under story type, season, and year of burn as factors. We also used logistic regression to model the effects of burn season, fire severity, and tree dimensions on individual tree mortality. Despite limited statistical power due to problems in carrying out the full suite of planned experimental burns, associations with tree and fire variables were observed. Post-fire pine tree mortality was negatively correlated with tree size and positively correlated with char height and percent crown scorch. Unlike post-fire mortality, tree mortality associated with storm surge from Hurricane Wilma was greater in the large size classes. Due to their influence on population structure and fuel dynamics, the size-selective mortality patterns following fire and storm surge have practical importance for using fire as a management tool in Florida Keys pine lands in the future, particularly when the threats to their continued existence from tropical storms and sea level rise are expected to increase.

  3. Tree mortality following prescribed fire and a storm surge event in Slash Pine (pinus elliottii var. densa) forests in the Florida Keys, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sah, Jay P.; Ross, Michael S.; Snyder, James R.; Ogurcak, Danielle E.

    2010-01-01

    In fire-dependent forests, managers are interested in predicting the consequences of prescribed burning on postfire tree mortality. We examined the effects of prescribed fire on tree mortality in Florida Keys pine forests, using a factorial design with understory type, season, and year of burn as factors. We also used logistic regression to model the effects of burn season, fire severity, and tree dimensions on individual tree mortality. Despite limited statistical power due to problems in carrying out the full suite of planned experimental burns, associations with tree and fire variables were observed. Post-fire pine tree mortality was negatively correlated with tree size and positively correlated with char height and percent crown scorch. Unlike post-fire mortality, tree mortality associated with storm surge from Hurricane Wilma was greater in the large size classes. Due to their influence on population structure and fuel dynamics, the size-selective mortality patterns following fire and storm surge have practical importance for using fire as a management tool in Florida Keys pinelands in the future, particularly when the threats to their continued existence from tropical storms and sea level rise are expected to increase.

  4. Hurricane & Tropical Storm Impacts over the South Florida Metropolitan Area: Mortality & Government

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colon Pagan, I. C.

    2007-12-01

    Since 1985, the South Florida Metropolitan area (SFMA), which covers the counties of Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach, has been directly affected by 9 tropical cyclones: four tropical storms and 5 hurricanes. This continuous hurricane and tropical storm activity has awakened the conscience of the communities, government, and private sector, about the social vulnerability, in terms of age, gender, ethnicity, and others. Several factors have also been significant enough to affect the vulnerability of the South Florida Metropolitan area, like its geographic location which is at the western part of the Atlantic hurricane track, with a surface area of 6,137 square miles, and elevation of 15 feet. And second, from the 2006 Census estimate, this metropolitan area is the 7th most populous area in the United States supporting almost 1,571 individuals per square mile. Mortality levels due to hurricanes and tropical storms have fluctuated over the last 21 years without any signal of a complete reduction, a phenomenon that can be related to both physical characteristics of the storms and government actions. The average annual death count remains almost the same from 4.10 between 1985 and 1995 to 4 from 1996 to 2006. However, the probability of occurrence of a direct impact of an atmospheric disturbance has increase from 0.3 to 0.6, with an average of three hurricane or tropical storm direct impacts for every five. This analysis suggests an increasing problem with regard to atmospheric disturbances-related deaths in the South Florida Metropolitan area. In other words, despite substantial increases in population during the last 21 years, the number of tropical cyclone-related deaths is not declining; it's just being segregated among more storms. Gaps between each impact can be related to mortality levels. When that time increases in five years or more, such as Bob and Andrew or Irene and Katrina, or decreases in weeks or months, such as Harvey and Irene or Katrina and Wilma

  5. Spatial generalized linear mixed models of electric power outages due to hurricanes and ice storms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu Haibin; Davidson, Rachel A.; Apanasovich, Tatiyana V.

    2008-01-01

    This paper presents new statistical models that predict the number of hurricane- and ice storm-related electric power outages likely to occur in each 3 kmx3 km grid cell in a region. The models are based on a large database of recent outages experienced by three major East Coast power companies in six hurricanes and eight ice storms. A spatial generalized linear mixed modeling (GLMM) approach was used in which spatial correlation is incorporated through random effects. Models were fitted using a composite likelihood approach and the covariance matrix was estimated empirically. A simulation study was conducted to test the model estimation procedure, and model training, validation, and testing were done to select the best models and assess their predictive power. The final hurricane model includes number of protective devices, maximum gust wind speed, hurricane indicator, and company indicator covariates. The final ice storm model includes number of protective devices, ice thickness, and ice storm indicator covariates. The models should be useful for power companies as they plan for future storms. The statistical modeling approach offers a new way to assess the reliability of electric power and other infrastructure systems in extreme events

  6. Artificial Neural Network forecasting of storm surge water levels at major estuarine ports to supplement national tide-surge models and improve port resilience planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    French, Jon; Mawdsley, Robert; Fujiyama, Taku; Achuthan, Kamal

    2017-04-01

    Effective prediction of tidal storm surge is of considerable importance for operators of major ports, since much of their infrastructure is necessarily located close to sea level. Storm surge inundation can damage critical elements of this infrastructure and significantly disrupt port operations and downstream supply chains. The risk of surge inundation is typically approached using extreme value analysis, while short-term forecasting generally relies on coastal shelf-scale tide and surge models. However, extreme value analysis does not provide information on the duration of a surge event and can be sensitive to the assumptions made and the historic data available. Also, whilst regional tide and surge models perform well along open coasts, their fairly coarse spatial resolution means that they do not always provide accurate predictions for estuarine ports. As part of a NERC Environmental Risks to Infrastructure Innovation Programme project, we have developed a tool that is specifically designed to forecast the North Sea storm surges on major ports along the east coast of the UK. Of particular interest is the Port of Immingham, Humber estuary, which handles the largest volume of bulk cargo in the UK including major flows of coal and biomass for power generation. A tidal surge in December 2013, with an estimated return period of 760 years, partly flooded the port, damaged infrastructure and disrupted operations for several weeks. This and other recent surge events highlight the need for additional tools to supplement the national UK Storm Tide Warning Service. Port operators are also keen to have access to less computationally expensive forecasting tools for scenario planning and to improve their resilience to actual events. In this paper, we demonstrate the potential of machine learning methods based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) to generate accurate short-term forecasts of extreme water levels at estuarine North Sea ports such as Immingham. An ANN is

  7. Using wind setdown and storm surge on Lake Erie to calibrate the air-sea drag coefficient.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drews, Carl

    2013-01-01

    The air-sea drag coefficient controls the transfer of momentum from wind to water. In modeling storm surge, this coefficient is a crucial parameter for estimating the surge height. This study uses two strong wind events on Lake Erie to calibrate the drag coefficient using the Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Wave Sediment Transport (COAWST) modeling system and the the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS). Simulated waves are generated on the lake with Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN). Wind setdown provides the opportunity to eliminate wave setup as a contributing factor, since waves are minimal at the upwind shore. The study finds that model results significantly underestimate wind setdown and storm surge when a typical open-ocean formulation without waves is used for the drag coefficient. The contribution of waves to wind setdown and storm surge is 34.7%. Scattered lake ice also increases the effective drag coefficient by a factor of 1.1.

  8. Modeling Tropical Cyclone Storm Surge and Wind Induced Risk Along the Bay of Bengal Coastline Using a Statistical Copula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bushra, N.; Trepanier, J. C.; Rohli, R. V.

    2017-12-01

    High winds, torrential rain, and storm surges from tropical cyclones (TCs) cause massive destruction to property and cost the lives of many people. The coastline of the Bay of Bengal (BoB) ranks as one of the most susceptible to TC storm surges in the world due to low-lying elevation and a high frequency of occurrence. Bangladesh suffers the most due to its geographical setting and population density. Various models have been developed to predict storm surge in this region but none of them quantify statistical risk with empirical data. This study describes the relationship and dependency between empirical TC storm surge and peak reported wind speed at the BoB using a bivariate statistical copula and data from 1885-2011. An Archimedean, Gumbel copula with margins defined by the empirical distributions is specified as the most appropriate choice for the BoB. The model provides return periods for pairs of TC storm surge and peak wind along the BoB coastline. The BoB can expect a TC with peak reported winds of at least 24 m s-1 and surge heights of at least 4.0 m, on average, once every 3.2 years, with a quartile pointwise confidence interval of 2.7-3.8 years. In addition, the BoB can expect peak reported winds of 62 m s-1 and surge heights of at least 8.0 m, on average, once every 115.4 years, with a quartile pointwise confidence interval of 55.8-381.1 years. The purpose of the analysis is to increase the understanding of these dangerous TC characteristics to reduce fatalities and monetary losses into the future. Application of the copula will mitigate future threats of storm surge impacts on coastal communities of the BoB.

  9. Predicting typhoon-induced storm surge tide with a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model and artificial neural network model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, W.-B.; Liu, W.-C.; Hsu, M.-H.

    2012-12-01

    Precise predictions of storm surges during typhoon events have the necessity for disaster prevention in coastal seas. This paper explores an artificial neural network (ANN) model, including the back propagation neural network (BPNN) and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) algorithms used to correct poor calculations with a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model in predicting storm surge height during typhoon events. The two-dimensional model has a fine horizontal resolution and considers the interaction between storm surges and astronomical tides, which can be applied for describing the complicated physical properties of storm surges along the east coast of Taiwan. The model is driven by the tidal elevation at the open boundaries using a global ocean tidal model and is forced by the meteorological conditions using a cyclone model. The simulated results of the hydrodynamic model indicate that this model fails to predict storm surge height during the model calibration and verification phases as typhoons approached the east coast of Taiwan. The BPNN model can reproduce the astronomical tide level but fails to modify the prediction of the storm surge tide level. The ANFIS model satisfactorily predicts both the astronomical tide level and the storm surge height during the training and verification phases and exhibits the lowest values of mean absolute error and root-mean-square error compared to the simulated results at the different stations using the hydrodynamic model and the BPNN model. Comparison results showed that the ANFIS techniques could be successfully applied in predicting water levels along the east coastal of Taiwan during typhoon events.

  10. Increasing risk of compound flooding from storm surge and rainfall for major US coastal cities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wahl, Thomas; Jain, Shaleen; Bender, Jens; Meyers, Steven; Luther, Mark

    2016-04-01

    Flood risk is a well-known facet of natural hazards along the US coastline where nearly 40% of the population resides in coastal counties. Given the heavy reliance on the coastal zone for natural resources and economic activity, flood preparedness and safety is a key element of long-term resilience. A clear understanding of the various flood types and changes in the frequency of their occurrence is critical towards reliable estimates of vulnerability and potential impacts in the near-term as well as into the future. When the two main flood drivers for coastal areas storm surge and heavy precipitation occur in tandem the potential for significant flooding is much greater than from either in isolation. Exploring the probability of these 'compound events' and understanding the processes driving them is essential to mitigate the associated high impact risks. For the contiguous US the likelihood of the joint occurrence of the two phenomena is largely unknown. Here we show - using storm surge and precipitation records spanning the last century - that the risk of compound flooding is higher for the US east and Gulf coasts, relative to the west coast. We also show that the number of compound events has increased significantly over the last century along large coastline stretches including many of the major coastal cities. For New York City - as an example - this increase is attributed to a shift towards storm surge weather patterns also favouring high precipitation. Preliminary analyses reveal that these synoptic scale changes are closely linked to large scale and low frequency climate variations. Our results demonstrate the importance of assessing the risk of compound flooding within the design process of coastal and urban infrastructure in a non-stationary framework and to explore the potential effects of climate change on these high impact events.

  11. Challenges in Downscaling Surge and Flooding Predictions Associated with Major Coastal Storm Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowman, M. J.

    2015-12-01

    Coastal zone managers, elected officials and emergency planning personnel are continually seeking more reliable estimates of storm surge and inundation for better land use planning, the design, construction and operation of coastal defense systems, resilience evaluation and evacuation planning. Customers of modern regional weather and storm surge prediction models demand high resolution, speed, accuracy, with informative, interactive graphics and easy evaluation of potentially dangerous threats to life and property. These challenges continue to get more difficult as the demand for street-scale and even building-scale predictions increase. Fluctuations in sub-grid-scale wind and water velocities can lead to unsuspected, unanticipated and dangerous flooding in local communities. But how reliable and believable are these models given the inherent natural uncertainty and chaotic behavior in the underlying dynamics, which can lead to rapid and unexpected perturbations in the wind and pressure fields and hence coastal flooding? Traditionally this uncertainty has been quantified by the use of the ensemble method, where a suite of model runs are made with varying physics and initial conditions, presenting the mean and variance of the ensemble as the best metrics possible. But this assumes that each component is equally possible and is statistically independent of the others. But this is rarely true, although the "safety in numbers" approach is comforting to those faced with life and death decisions. An example of the ensemble method is presented for the trajectory of superstorm Sandy's storm center as it approached coastal New Jersey. If one were to ask the question "was Sandy a worst case scenario", the answer would be "no: small variations in the timing (vis-à-vis tide phase) and location of landfall could easily have led to an additional surge of +50 cm at The Battery NY with even more catastrophic consequences to those experienced".

  12. Quantifying riverine and storm-surge flood risk by single-family residence: application to Texas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Czajkowski, Jeffrey; Kunreuther, Howard; Michel-Kerjan, Erwann

    2013-12-01

    The development of catastrophe models in recent years allows for assessment of the flood hazard much more effectively than when the federally run National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) was created in 1968. We propose and then demonstrate a methodological approach to determine pure premiums based on the entire distribution of possible flood events. We apply hazard, exposure, and vulnerability analyses to a sample of 300,000 single-family residences in two counties in Texas (Travis and Galveston) using state-of-the-art flood catastrophe models. Even in zones of similar flood risk classification by FEMA there is substantial variation in exposure between coastal and inland flood risk. For instance, homes in the designated moderate-risk X500/B zones in Galveston are exposed to a flood risk on average 2.5 times greater than residences in X500/B zones in Travis. The results also show very similar average annual loss (corrected for exposure) for a number of residences despite their being in different FEMA flood zones. We also find significant storm-surge exposure outside of the FEMA designated storm-surge risk zones. Taken together these findings highlight the importance of a microanalysis of flood exposure. The process of aggregating risk at a flood zone level-as currently undertaken by FEMA-provides a false sense of uniformity. As our analysis indicates, the technology to delineate the flood risks exists today. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

  13. Erosion reasons and rate on accumulative Polish dune coast caused by the January 2012 storm surge

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomasz A. Łabuz

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The Polish coast is a non-tidal area; its shores are affected mainly by autumn-winter storm surges. Those of 6 and 14 January 2012 are representative of the forces driving the erosion of normally accumulative sections of coastal dunes, monitored by the author since 1997. The sea level maximum during these two storm surges reached 1.2 to 1.5 m amsl along the Polish coast. Land forms up to 3 m amsl were inundated. Beaches and low parts of the coast up to this height were rebuilt by sea waves attacking the coast for almost 12 days. Quantitative analyses of the morphological dynamics of the coastal dunes are presented for 57 profiles located along the coast. Only those accumulative sections of the Polish coast are analysed where sand accumulation did occur and led to new foredune development. The mean rate of dune erosion was 2.5 m3 per square metre with an average toe retreat of 1.4 m. Erosion understood as dune retreat was greater when a beach was lower (correlation coefficient 0.8. Dune erosion did not occur on coasts with beaches higher than 3.2 m or on lower ones covered by embryo dunes.

  14. Dynamical Downscaling of Typhoon Vera (1959) and related Storm Surge based on JRA-55 Reanalysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ninomiya, J.; Takemi, T.; Mori, N.; Shibutani, Y.; Kim, S.

    2015-12-01

    Typhoon Vera in 1959 is historical extreme typhoon that caused severest typhoon damage mainly due to the storm surge up to 389 cm in Japan. Vera developed 895 hPa on offshore and landed with 929.2 hPa. There are many studies of the dynamical downscaling of Vera but it is difficult to simulate accurately because of the lack of the accuracy of global reanalysis data. This study carried out dynamical downscaling experiment of Vera using WRF downscaling forced by JRA-55 that are latest atmospheric model and reanalysis data. In this study, the reproducibility of five global reanalysis data for Typhoon Vera were compered. Comparison shows that reanalysis data doesn't have strong typhoon information except for JRA-55, so that downscaling with conventional reanalysis data goes wrong. The dynamical downscaling method for storm surge is studied very much (e.g. choice of physical model, nudging, 4D-VAR, bogus and so on). In this study, domain size and resolution of the coarse domain were considered. The coarse domain size influences the typhoon route and central pressure, and larger domain restrains the typhoon strength. The results of simulations with different domain size show that the threshold of developing restrain is whether the coarse domain fully includes the area of wind speed more than 15 m/s around the typhoon. The results of simulations with different resolution show that the resolution doesn't affect the typhoon route, and higher resolution gives stronger typhoon simulation.

  15. Science and the storms: The USGS response to the hurricanes of 2005

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farris, G. S.; Smith, G.J.; Crane, M.P.; Demas, C.R.; Robbins, L.L.; Lavoie, D.L.

    2007-01-01

    This report is designed to give a view of the immediate response of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to four major hurricanes of 2005: Dennis, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma. Some of this response took place days after the hurricanes; other responses included fieldwork and analysis through the spring. While hurricane science continues within the USGS, this overview of work following these hurricanes reveals how a Department of the Interior bureau quickly brought together a diverse array of its scientists and technologies to assess and analyze many hurricane effects. Topics vary from flooding and water quality to landscape and ecosystem impacts, from geotechnical reconnaissance to analyzing the collapse of bridges and estimating the volume of debris. Thus, the purpose of this report is to inform the American people of the USGS science that is available and ongoing in regard to hurricanes. It is the hope that such science will help inform the decisions of those citizens and officials tasked with coastal restoration and planning for future hurricanes. Chapter 1 is an essay establishing the need for science in building a resilient coast. The second chapter includes some hurricane facts that provide hurricane terminology, history, and maps of the four hurricanes’ paths. Chapters that follow give the scientific response of USGS to the storms. Both English and metric measurements are used in the articles in anticipation of both general and scientific audiences in the United States and elsewhere. Chapter 8 is a compilation of relevant ongoing and future hurricane work. The epilogue marks the 2-year anniversary of Hurricane Katrina. An index of authors follows the report to aid in finding articles that are cross-referenced within the report. In addition to performing the science needed to understand the effects of hurricanes, USGS employees helped in the rescue of citizens by boat and through technology by “geoaddressing” 911 calls after Katrina and Rita so that other

  16. The combined risk of extreme tropical cyclone winds and storm surges along the U.S. Gulf of Mexico Coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trepanier, J. C.; Yuan, J.; Jagger, T. H.

    2017-03-01

    Tropical cyclones, with their nearshore high wind speeds and deep storm surges, frequently strike the United States Gulf of Mexico coastline influencing millions of people and disrupting offshore economic activities. The combined risk of occurrence of tropical cyclone nearshore wind speeds and storm surges is assessed at 22 coastal cities throughout the United States Gulf of Mexico. The models used are extreme value copulas fitted with margins defined by the generalized Pareto distribution or combinations of Weibull, gamma, lognormal, or normal distributions. The statistical relationships between the nearshore wind speed and storm surge are provided for each coastal city prior to the copula model runs using Spearman's rank correlations. The strongest significant relationship between the nearshore wind speed and storm surge exists at Shell Beach, LA (ρ = 0.67), followed by South Padre Island, TX (ρ = 0.64). The extreme value Archimedean copula models for each city then provide return periods for specific nearshore wind speed and storm surge pairs. Of the 22 cities considered, Bay St. Louis, MS, has the shortest return period for a tropical cyclone with at least a 50 ms-1 nearshore wind speed and a 3 m surge (19.5 years, 17.1-23.5). The 90% confidence intervals are created by recalculating the return periods for a fixed set of wind speeds and surge levels using 100 samples of the model parameters. The results of this study can be utilized by policy managers and government officials concerned with coastal populations and economic activity in the Gulf of Mexico.

  17. HURRICANE AND SEVERE STORM SENTINEL (HS3) GLOBAL HAWK HIGH ALTITUDE MMIC SOUNDING RADIOMETER (HAMSR) V1

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3) Global Hawk High Altitude MMIC Sounding Radiometer (HAMSR) datasets include measurements gathered by the HAMSR...

  18. HURRICANE AND SEVERE STORM SENTINEL (HS3) GLOBAL HAWK ADVANCED VERTICAL ATMOSPHERIC PROFILING SYSTEM (AVAPS) DROPSONDE SYSTEM V2

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3) Global Hawk Advanced Vertical Atmospheric Profiling System (AVAPS) Dropsonde System dataset was collected by the...

  19. An ensemble study of extreme storm surge related water levels in the North Sea in a changing climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Sterl

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available The height of storm surges is extremely important for a low-lying country like The Netherlands. By law, part of the coastal defence system has to withstand a water level that on average occurs only once every 10 000 years. The question then arises whether and how climate change affects the heights of extreme storm surges. Published research points to only small changes. However, due to the limited amount of data available results are usually limited to relatively frequent extremes like the annual 99%-ile. We here report on results from a 17-member ensemble of North Sea water levels spaning the period 1950–2100. It was created by forcing a surge model of the North Sea with meteorological output from a state-of-the-art global climate model which has been driven by greenhouse gas emissions following the SRES A1b scenario. The large ensemble size enables us to calculate 10 000 year return water levels with a low statistical uncertainty. In the one model used in this study, we find no statistically significant change in the 10 000 year return values of surge heights along the Dutch during the 21st century. Also a higher sea level resulting from global warming does not impact the height of the storm surges. As a side effect of our simulations we also obtain results on the interplay between surge and tide.

  20. Assessing inundation hazards to nuclear powerplant sites using geologically extended histories of riverine floods, tsunamis, and storm surges

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Connor, Jim; Atwater, Brian F.; Cohn, Timothy A.; Cronin, Thomas M.; Keith, Mackenzie K.; Smith, Christopher G.; Mason, Jr., Robert R.

    2014-01-01

    Most nuclear powerplants in the United States are near rivers, large lakes, or oceans. As evident from the Fukushima Daiichi, Japan, disaster of 2011, these water bodies pose inundation threats. Geologic records can extend knowledge of rare hazards from flooding, storm surges, and tsunamis. This knowledge can aid in assessing the safety of critical structures such as dams and energy plants, for which even remotely possible hazards are pertinent. Quantitative analysis of inundation from geologic records perhaps is most developed for and applied to riverine flood hazards, but because of recent natural disasters, geologic investigations also are now used widely for understanding tsunami hazards and coastal storm surges.

  1. Erosion and its rate on an accumulative Polish dune coast: the effects of the January 2012 storm surge

    OpenAIRE

    Łabuz, Tomasz A.

    2014-01-01

    The Polish coast is a non-tidal area; its shores are affected mainly by autumn-winter storm surges. Those of 6 and 14 January 2012 are representative of the forces driving the erosion of normally accumulative sections of coastal dunes, monitored by the author since 1997. The sea level maximum during these two storm surges reached 1.2 to 1.5 m amsl along the Polish coast. Land forms up to 3 m amsl were inundated. Beaches and low parts of the coast up to this height were rebuilt by sea waves at...

  2. Great Britain Storm Surge Modeling for a 10,000-Year Stochastic Catalog with the Effect of Sea Level Rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keshtpoor, M.; Carnacina, I.; Blair, A.; Yablonsky, R. M.

    2017-12-01

    Storm surge caused by Extratropical Cyclones (ETCs) has significantly impacted not only the life of private citizens but also the insurance and reinsurance industry in Great Britain. The storm surge risk assessment requires a larger dataset of storms than the limited recorded historical ETCs. Thus, historical ETCs were perturbed to generate a 10,000-year stochastic catalog that accounts for surge-generating ETCs in the study area with return periods from one year to 10,000 years. Delft3D-Flexible Mesh hydrodynamic model was used to numerically simulate the storm surge along the Great Britain coastline. A nested grid technique was used to increase the simulation grid resolution up to 200 m near the highly populated coastal areas. Coarse and fine mesh models were calibrated and validated using historical recorded water elevations. Then, numerical simulations were performed on a 10,000-year stochastic catalog. The 50-, 100-, and 500-year return period maps were generated for Great Britain coastal areas. The corresponding events with return periods of 50-, 100-, and 500-years in Humber Bay and Thames River coastal areas were identified, and simulated with the consideration of projected sea level rises to reveal the effect of rising sea levels on the inundation return period maps in two highly-populated coastal areas. Finally, the return period of Storm Xaver (2013) was determined with and without the effect of rising sea levels.

  3. The Development of High-speed Full-function Storm Surge Model and the Case Study of 2013 Typhoon Haiyan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsai, Y. L.; Wu, T. R.; Lin, C. Y.; Chuang, M. H.; Lin, C. W.

    2016-02-01

    An ideal storm surge operational model should feature as: 1. Large computational domain which covers the complete typhoon life cycle. 2. Supporting both parametric and atmospheric models. 3. Capable of calculating inundation area for risk assessment. 4. Tides are included for accurate inundation simulation. Literature review shows that not many operational models reach the goals for the fast calculation, and most of the models have limited functions. In this paper, a well-developed COMCOT (COrnell Multi-grid Coupled of Tsunami Model) tsunami model is chosen as the kernel to establish a storm surge model which solves the nonlinear shallow water equations on both spherical and Cartesian coordinates directly. The complete evolution of storm surge including large-scale propagation and small-scale offshore run-up can be simulated by nested-grid scheme. The global tide model TPXO 7.2 established by Oregon State University is coupled to provide astronomical boundary conditions. The atmospheric model named WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting Model) is also coupled to provide metrological fields. The high-efficiency thin-film method is adopted to evaluate the storm surge inundation. Our in-house model has been optimized by OpenMp (Open Multi-Processing) with the performance which is 10 times faster than the original version and makes it an early-warning storm surge model. In this study, the thorough simulation of 2013 Typhoon Haiyan is performed. The detailed results will be presented in Oceanic Science Meeting of 2016 in terms of surge propagation and high-resolution inundation areas.

  4. Using 18th century storm-surge data from the Dutch Coast to improve the confidence in flood-risk estimates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Baart, F.; Bakker, M.A.J.; Van Dongeren, A.; Den Heijer, C.; Van Heteren, S.; Smit, M.W.J.; Van Koningsveld, M.; Pool, A.

    2011-01-01

    For the design of cost-effective coastal defence a precise estimate is needed of the 1/10 000 per year storm surge. A more precise estimate requires more observations. Therefore, the three greatest storm surges that hit the northern part of the Holland Coast in the 18th century are reconstructed.

  5. Compound simulation of fluvial floods and storm surges in a global coupled river-coast flood model : Model development and its application to 2007 Cyclone Sidr in Bangladesh

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ikeuchi, Hiroaki; Hirabayashi, Yukiko; Yamazaki, Dai; Muis, Sanne; Ward, Philip J.; Winsemius, Hessel C.; Verlaan, Martin; Kanae, Shinjiro

    2017-01-01

    Water-related disasters, such as fluvial floods and cyclonic storm surges, are a major concern in the world's mega-delta regions. Furthermore, the simultaneous occurrence of extreme discharges from rivers and storm surges could exacerbate flood risk, compared to when they occur separately. Hence, it

  6. Effects of wave-current interaction on storm surge in the Taiwan Strait: Insights from Typhoon Morakot

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Xiaolong; Pan, Weiran; Zheng, Xiangjing; Zhou, Shenjie; Tao, Xiaoqin

    2017-08-01

    The effects of wave-current interaction on storm surge are investigated by a two-dimensional wave-current coupling model through simulations of Typhoon Morakot in the Taiwan Strait. The results show that wind wave and slope of sea floor govern wave setup modulations within the nearshore surf zone. Wave setup during Morakot can contribute up to 24% of the total storm surge with a maximum value of 0.28 m. The large wave setup commonly coincides with enhanced radiation stress gradient, which is itself associated with transfer of wave momentum flux. Water levels are to leading order in modulating significant wave height inside the estuary. High water levels due to tidal change and storm surge stabilize the wind wave and decay wave breaking. Outside of the estuary, waves are mainly affected by the current-induced modification of wind energy input to the wave generation. By comparing the observed significant wave height and water level with the results from uncoupled and coupled simulations, the latter shows a better agreement with the observations. It suggests that wave-current interaction plays an important role in determining the extreme storm surge and wave height in the study area and should not be neglected in a typhoon forecast.

  7. Monitoring and simulation of salinity changes in response to tide and storm surges in a sandy coastal aquifer system

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huizer, S.; Karaoulis, M.C.; Oude Essink, G.H.P.; Bierkens, M.F.P.

    Tidal dynamics and especially storm surges can have an extensive impact on coastal fresh groundwater resources. Combined with the prospect of sea-level rise and the reliance of many people on these resources, this demonstrates the need to assess the vulnerability of coastal areas to these threats.

  8. Evaluation of weather forecast systems for storm surge modeling in the Chesapeake Bay

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garzon, Juan L.; Ferreira, Celso M.; Padilla-Hernandez, Roberto

    2018-01-01

    Accurate forecast of sea-level heights in coastal areas depends, among other factors, upon a reliable coupling of a meteorological forecast system to a hydrodynamic and wave system. This study evaluates the predictive skills of the coupled circulation and wind-wave model system (ADCIRC+SWAN) for simulating storm tides in the Chesapeake Bay, forced by six different products: (1) Global Forecast System (GFS), (2) Climate Forecast System (CFS) version 2, (3) North American Mesoscale Forecast System (NAM), (4) Rapid Refresh (RAP), (5) European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), and (6) the Atlantic hurricane database (HURDAT2). This evaluation is based on the hindcasting of four events: Irene (2011), Sandy (2012), Joaquin (2015), and Jonas (2016). By comparing the simulated water levels to observations at 13 monitoring stations, we have found that the ADCIR+SWAN System forced by the following: (1) the HURDAT2-based system exhibited the weakest statistical skills owing to a noteworthy overprediction of the simulated wind speed; (2) the ECMWF, RAP, and NAM products captured the moment of the peak and moderately its magnitude during all storms, with a correlation coefficient ranging between 0.98 and 0.77; (3) the CFS system exhibited the worst averaged root-mean-square difference (excepting HURDAT2); (4) the GFS system (the lowest horizontal resolution product tested) resulted in a clear underprediction of the maximum water elevation. Overall, the simulations forced by NAM and ECMWF systems induced the most accurate results best accuracy to support water level forecasting in the Chesapeake Bay during both tropical and extra-tropical storms.

  9. Hurricane Harvey Report : A fact-finding effort in the direct aftermath of Hurricane Harvey in the Greater Houston Region

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sebastian, A.G.; Lendering, K.T.; Kothuis, B.L.M.; Brand, A.D.; Jonkman, S.N.; van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M.; Kolen, B.; Comes, M.; Lhermitte, S.L.M.; Meesters, K.J.M.G.; van de Walle, B.A.; Ebrahimi Fard, A.; Cunningham, S.; Khakzad Rostami, N.; Nespeca, V.

    2017-01-01

    On August 25, 2017, Hurricane Harvey made landfall near Rockport, Texas as a Category 4 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of approximately 200 km/hour. Harvey caused severe damages in coastal Texas due to extreme winds and storm surge, but will go down in history for record-setting rainfall

  10. Tropical Cyclone Storm Surge Inundation and Velocity Hazard Mapping of the State of Andhra Pradesh (India) using ADCIRC

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brackins, J. T.; Kalyanapu, A. J.

    2017-12-01

    The Northern Indian Ocean Bay of Bengal region, including parts of India, Bangladesh, Myanmar, and Sri Lanka, is the largest bay in the world and is structured in such a manner as to produce the world's largest tropical cyclone (TC) storm surges (SS), with approximately five surge events greater than 5 meters in magnitude each decade. (Needham et al. 2015). Although some studies have been performed to attempt to capture the magnitude and location of historical surges (Shaji et al. 2014) and to model surges in the immediate sense, there is a notable lack of application to the effects on coastal infrastructure in these areas. Given that these areas are some of the most densely populated and least economically able to prepare and recover, it is important to consider the potential effects of storm surge to discover areas where improvements can be made with the limited resources available to these areas. To this end, an ADvanced-CIRCulation (ADCIRC) model (Luettich and Westerink 2004) was created for the Bay of Bengal, using the General Bathymetric Chart of the Oceans (GEBCO 2014) as bathymetric and topographic data, and a combination of the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and India Meteorological Department (IMD) records for storm tracks. For the state of Andhra Pradesh, several major TC events ranging from 1977 to 2014 were selected to be modeled with the goal of creating hazard maps of storm surge inundation and velocity for the state. These hazard maps would be used to identify high-vulnerability areas with the goal of implementing land-use planning and coastal development practices that will aid in ameliorating both the loss of life and economic damages sustained as a result of these TCs.

  11. Storm Impact and Depression Among Older Adults Living in Hurricane Sandy-Affected Areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sirey, Jo Anne; Berman, Jacquelin; Halkett, Ashley; Giunta, Nancy; Kerrigan, Janice; Raeifar, Elmira; Artis, Amanda; Banerjee, Samprit; Raue, Patrick J

    2017-02-01

    Research on the impact of natural disasters on the mental health of older adults finds both vulnerabilities and resilience. We report on the rates of clinically significant depression among older adults (aged ≥60 years) living in areas affected by Hurricane Sandy in 2012 and the factors associated with mental health need. The Sandy Mobilization, Assessment, Referral and Treatment for Mental Health (SMART-MH) program integrates community outreach and needs assessments to identify older adults with mental health and aging service needs. Older adults with significant anxiety or depressive symptoms were offered short-term psychotherapy. Social service referrals were made directly to community agencies. All SMART-MH activities were offered in Spanish, Russian, Mandarin/Cantonese, and English. Across the full sample, 14% of participants screened positive for depression. Hurricane Sandy stressors predicted increased odds of depression, including storm injury, post-storm crime, and the total count of stressors. Outcomes varied significantly by age group, such that all Sandy-related variables remained significant for younger-old adults (aged 60-74 years), whereas only the loss of access to medical care was significant for older-old adults (aged ≥75 years). Storm-affected communities show higher rates of depressive symptoms than seen in the general population, with storm stressors affecting mental health needs differentially by age group. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2017;11:97-109).

  12. Maximum wind radius estimated by the 50 kt radius: improvement of storm surge forecasting over the western North Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takagi, Hiroshi; Wu, Wenjie

    2016-03-01

    Even though the maximum wind radius (Rmax) is an important parameter in determining the intensity and size of tropical cyclones, it has been overlooked in previous storm surge studies. This study reviews the existing estimation methods for Rmax based on central pressure or maximum wind speed. These over- or underestimate Rmax because of substantial variations in the data, although an average radius can be estimated with moderate accuracy. As an alternative, we propose an Rmax estimation method based on the radius of the 50 kt wind (R50). Data obtained by a meteorological station network in the Japanese archipelago during the passage of strong typhoons, together with the JMA typhoon best track data for 1990-2013, enabled us to derive the following simple equation, Rmax = 0.23 R50. Application to a recent strong typhoon, the 2015 Typhoon Goni, confirms that the equation provides a good estimation of Rmax, particularly when the central pressure became considerably low. Although this new method substantially improves the estimation of Rmax compared to the existing models, estimation errors are unavoidable because of fundamental uncertainties regarding the typhoon's structure or insufficient number of available typhoon data. In fact, a numerical simulation for the 2013 Typhoon Haiyan as well as 2015 Typhoon Goni demonstrates a substantial difference in the storm surge height for different Rmax. Therefore, the variability of Rmax should be taken into account in storm surge simulations (e.g., Rmax = 0.15 R50-0.35 R50), independently of the model used, to minimize the risk of over- or underestimating storm surges. The proposed method is expected to increase the predictability of major storm surges and to contribute to disaster risk management, particularly in the western North Pacific, including countries such as Japan, China, Taiwan, the Philippines, and Vietnam.

  13. Alternate site surge capacity in times of public health disaster maintains trauma center and emergency department integrity: Hurricane Katrina.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eastman, Alexander L; Rinnert, Kathy J; Nemeth, Ira R; Fowler, Raymond L; Minei, Joseph P

    2007-08-01

    Hospital surge capacity has been advocated to accommodate large increases in demand for healthcare; however, existing urban trauma centers and emergency departments (TC/EDs) face barriers to providing timely care even at baseline patient volumes. The purpose of this study is to describe how alternate-site medical surge capacity absorbed large patient volumes while minimizing impact on routine TC/ED operations immediately after Hurricane Katrina. From September 1 to 16, 2005, an alternate site for medical care was established. Using an off-site space, the Dallas Convention Center Medical Unit (DCCMU) was established to meet the increased demand for care. Data were collected and compared with TC/ED patient volumes to assess impact on existing facilities. During the study period, 23,231 persons displaced by Hurricane Katrina were registered to receive evacuee services in the City of Dallas, Texas. From those displaced, 10,367 visits for emergent or urgent healthcare were seen at the DCCMU. The mean number of daily visits (mean +/- SD) to the DCCMU was 619 +/- 301 visits with a peak on day 3 (n = 1,125). No patients died, 3.2% (n = 257) were observed in the DCCMU, and only 2.9% (n = 236) required transport to a TC/ED. During the same period, the mean number of TC/ED visits at the region's primary provider of indigent care (Hospital 1) was 346 +/- 36 visits. Using historical data from Hospital 1 during the same period of time (341 +/- 41), there was no significant difference in the mean number of TC/ED visits from the previous year (p = 0.26). Alternate-site medical surge capacity provides for safe and effective delivery of care to a large influx of patients seeking urgent and emergent care. This protects the integrity of existing public hospital TC/ED infrastructure and ongoing operations.

  14. Rhode Island hurricanes and tropical storms: A fifty-six year summary 1936-1991. Technical memo

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vallee, D.R.

    1993-03-01

    The paper was compiled to provide a general overview of all tropical cyclone activity near Rhode Island since 1936. The year of 1936 is arbitrary, chosen mainly to include a 'not so well known' system prior to the well documented Great New England Hurricane of 1938. Thirty-one such storms have affected the state in the past 56 years, either making landfall along the coast of southern New England, or passing close enough over the offshore waters to spread tropical storm or hurricane force conditions into the area. The intensities of these systems have ranged from weak, disorganized tropical storms to full fledged major hurricanes. The one feature common to almost all of the storms was a rapid acceleration toward Rhode Island, which greatly reduced the time to prepare and evacuate

  15. Modelling the effects of tides and storm surges on coastal aquifers using a coupled surface-subsurface approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Jie; Graf, Thomas; Herold, Maria; Ptak, Thomas

    2013-06-01

    Coastal aquifers are complex hydrologic systems because many physical processes interact: (i) variably saturated flow, (ii) spatial-temporal fluid density variations, (iii) tidal fluctuations, (iv) storm surges overtopping dykes, and (v) surface runoff of storm water. The HydroGeoSphere model is used to numerically simulate coastal flow dynamics, assuming a fully coupled surface-subsurface approach, accounting for all processes listed above. The diffusive wave approximation of the St. Venant equation is used to describe surface flow. Surface flow and salt transport are fully coupled with subsurficial variably saturated, variable-density flow and salt transport through mathematical terms that represent exchange of fluid mass and solute mass, respectively. Tides and storm surges induce a time-variant head that is applied to nodes of the surface domain. The approach is applied to real cases of tide and storm surge events. Tide simulation results confirm the existence of a recirculating zone, forming beneath the upper part of the intertidal zone. By monitoring the exchange fluid flux rates through the beach, it was found that the major inflow to the aquifer takes place at the upper part of the intertidal zone, which explains the formation of the recirculating zone. The recirculating zone is forming particularly during rising tide. Results from a storm surge simulation show that plume fingers develop below the flooded land surface. Natural remediation by seaward flowing freshwater is relatively slow, such that reducing the salt concentration in the aquifer down to drinking water standards takes up to 10 years. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Enhanced outage prediction modeling for strong extratropical storms and hurricanes in the Northeastern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cerrai, D.; Anagnostou, E. N.; Wanik, D. W.; Bhuiyan, M. A. E.; Zhang, X.; Yang, J.; Astitha, M.; Frediani, M. E.; Schwartz, C. S.; Pardakhti, M.

    2016-12-01

    The overwhelming majority of human activities need reliable electric power. Severe weather events can cause power outages, resulting in substantial economic losses and a temporary worsening of living conditions. Accurate prediction of these events and the communication of forecasted impacts to the affected utilities is necessary for efficient emergency preparedness and mitigation. The University of Connecticut Outage Prediction Model (OPM) uses regression tree models, high-resolution weather reanalysis and real-time weather forecasts (WRF and NCAR ensemble), airport station data, vegetation and electric grid characteristics and historical outage data to forecast the number and spatial distribution of outages in the power distribution grid located within dense vegetation. Recent OPM improvements consist of improved storm classification and addition of new predictive weather-related variables and are demonstrated using a leave-one-storm-out cross-validation based on 130 severe extratropical storms and two hurricanes (Sandy and Irene) in the Northeast US. We show that it is possible to predict the number of trouble spots causing outages in the electric grid with a median absolute percentage error as low as 27% for some storm types, and at most around 40%, in a scale that varies between four orders of magnitude, from few outages to tens of thousands. This outage information can be communicated to the electric utility to manage allocation of crews and equipment and minimize the recovery time for an upcoming storm hazard.

  17. Modelling sea level rise impacts on storm surges along US coasts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tebaldi, Claudia; Strauss, Benjamin H; Zervas, Chris E

    2012-01-01

    Sound policies for protecting coastal communities and assets require good information about vulnerability to flooding. Here, we investigate the influence of sea level rise on expected storm surge-driven water levels and their frequencies along the contiguous United States. We use model output for global temperature changes, a semi-empirical model of global sea level rise, and long-term records from 55 nationally distributed tidal gauges to develop sea level rise projections at each gauge location. We employ more detailed records over the period 1979–2008 from the same gauges to elicit historic patterns of extreme high water events, and combine these statistics with anticipated relative sea level rise to project changing local extremes through 2050. We find that substantial changes in the frequency of what are now considered extreme water levels may occur even at locations with relatively slow local sea level rise, when the difference in height between presently common and rare water levels is small. We estimate that, by mid-century, some locations may experience high water levels annually that would qualify today as ‘century’ (i.e., having a chance of occurrence of 1% annually) extremes. Today’s century levels become ‘decade’ (having a chance of 10% annually) or more frequent events at about a third of the study gauges, and the majority of locations see substantially higher frequency of previously rare storm-driven water heights in the future. These results add support to the need for policy approaches that consider the non-stationarity of extreme events when evaluating risks of adverse climate impacts. (letter)

  18. Storm surges and climate change implications for tidal marshes: Insight from the San Francisco Bay Estuary, California, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thorne, Karen M.; Buffington, Kevin J.; Swanson, Kathleen; Takekawa, John Y.

    2013-01-01

    Tidal marshes are dynamic ecosystems, which are influenced by oceanic and freshwater processes and daily changes in sea level. Projected sea-level rise and changes in storm frequency and intensity will affect tidal marshes by altering suspended sediment supply, plant communities, and the inundation duration and depth of the marsh platform. The objective of this research was to evaluate if regional weather conditions resulting in low-pressure storms changed tidal conditions locally within three tidal marshes. We hypothesized that regional storms will increase sea level heights locally, resulting in increased inundation of the tidal marsh platform and plant communities. Using site-level measurements of elevation, plant communities, and water levels, we present results from two storm events in 2010 and 2011 from the San Francisco Bay Estuary (SFBE), California, USA. The January 2010 storm had the lowest recorded sea level pressure in the last 30 years for this region. During the storm episodes, the duration of tidal marsh inundation was 1.8 and 3.1 times greater than average for that time of year, respectively. At peak storm surges, over 65% in 2010 and 93% in 2011 of the plant community was under water. We also discuss the implications of these types of storms and projected sea-level rise on the structure and function of the tidal marshes and how that will impact the hydro-geomorphic processes and marsh biotic communities.

  19. Hurricane Irene: a Wake Up Call for New York City?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Aerts, J.C.J.H.; Botzen, W.J.W.

    2012-01-01

    The weakening of Irene from a Category 3 hurricane to a tropical storm resulted in less damage in New York City (NYC) than initially was anticipated. It is widely recognized that the storm surge and associated flooding could have been much more severe. In a recent study, we showed that a direct hit

  20. Ensemble Kalman Filter data assimilation and storm surge experiments of tropical cyclone Nargis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Le Duc

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Data assimilation experiments on Myanmar tropical cyclone (TC, Nargis, using the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF method and the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA non-hydrostatic model (NHM were performed to examine the impact of LETKF on analysis performance in real cases. Although the LETKF control experiment using NHM as its driving model (NHM–LETKF produced a weak vortex, the subsequent 3-day forecast predicted Nargis’ track and intensity better than downscaling from JMA's global analysis. Some strategies to further improve the final analysis were considered. They were sea surface temperature (SST perturbations and assimilation of TC advisories. To address SST uncertainty, SST analyses issued by operational forecast centres were used in the assimilation window. The use of a fixed source of SST analysis for each ensemble member was more effective in practice. SST perturbations were found to have slightly positive impact on the track forecasts. Assimilation of TC advisories could have a positive impact with a reasonable choice of its free parameters. However, the TC track forecasts exhibited northward displacements, when the observation error of intensities was underestimated in assimilation of TC advisories. The use of assimilation of TC advisories was considered in the final NHM–LETKF by choosing an appropriate set of free parameters. The extended forecast based on the final analysis provided meteorological forcings for a storm surge simulation using the Princeton Ocean Model. Probabilistic forecasts of the water levels at Irrawaddy and Yangon significantly improved the results in the previous studies.

  1. Spatial and temporal analysis of extreme sea level and storm surge events around the coastline of the UK.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haigh, Ivan D; Wadey, Matthew P; Wahl, Thomas; Ozsoy, Ozgun; Nicholls, Robert J; Brown, Jennifer M; Horsburgh, Kevin; Gouldby, Ben

    2016-12-06

    In this paper we analyse the spatial footprint and temporal clustering of extreme sea level and skew surge events around the UK coast over the last 100 years (1915-2014). The vast majority of the extreme sea level events are generated by moderate, rather than extreme skew surges, combined with spring astronomical high tides. We distinguish four broad categories of spatial footprints of events and the distinct storm tracks that generated them. There have been rare events when extreme levels have occurred along two unconnected coastal regions during the same storm. The events that occur in closest succession (sea level events from happening within 4-8 days. Finally, the 2013/14 season was highly unusual in the context of the last 100 years from an extreme sea level perspective.

  2. Ensemble projection of the sea level rise impact on storm surge and inundation at the coast of Bangladesh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jisan, Mansur Ali; Bao, Shaowu; Pietrafesa, Leonard J.

    2018-01-01

    The hydrodynamic model Delft3D is used to study the impact of sea level rise (SLR) on storm surge and inundation in the coastal region of Bangladesh. To study the present-day inundation scenario, the tracks of two known tropical cyclones (TC) were used: Aila (Category 1; 2009) and Sidr (Category 5; 2007). Model results were validated with the available observations. Future inundation scenarios were generated by using the strength of TC Sidr, TC Aila and an ensemble of historical TC tracks but incorporating the effect of SLR. Since future change in storm surge inundation under SLR impact is a probabilistic incident, a probable range of future change in the inundated area was calculated by taking into consideration the uncertainties associated with TC tracks, intensities and landfall timing. The model outputs showed that the inundated area for TC Sidr, which was calculated as 1860 km2, would become 31 % larger than the present-day scenario if a SLR of 0.26 m occurred during the mid-21st-century climate scenario. Similarly to that, an increasing trend was found for the end-21st-century climate scenario. It was found that with a SLR of 0.54 m, the inundated area would become 53 % larger than the present-day case. Along with the inundation area, the impact of SLR was examined for changes in future storm surge level. A significant increase of 14 % was found in storm surge level for the case of TC Sidr at Barisal station if a SLR of 0.26 m occurred in the mid-21st century. Similarly to that, an increase of 29 % was found at storm surge level with a SLR of 0.54 m in this location for the end-21st-century climate scenario. Ensemble projections based on uncertainties of future TC events also showed that, for a change of 0.54 m in SLR, the inundated area would range between 3500 and 3750 km2, whereas for present-day SLR simulations it was found within the range of 1000-1250 km2. These results revealed that even if the future TCs remain at the same strength as at present, the

  3. Modeling of Coastal Inundation, Storm Surge, and Relative Sea-Level Rise at Naval Station Norfolk, Norfolk, Virginia, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Storm Surge, and Relative Sea-Level Rise at Naval Station Norfolk, Norfolk, Virginia, USA 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT...tive comments on the manuscript. Permission was granted by the Chief, USACE, to publish this information. LITERATURE CITED Blanton, B.; Stillwell, L...Geospatial Center. http://www.agc.army.mil/ (accessed February 29, 2012). Vickery, P.; Wadhera, D.; Cox, A.; Cardone , V.; Hanson, J., and Blanton, B

  4. Sea level during storm surges as seen in tide-gauge records along the east coast of India

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Sundar, D.; Shankar, D.; Shetye, S.R.

    and crossed the north Orissa coast later that day; it weakened and moved westward subsequent to landfall. Sea-level variations due to surges triggered by storm winds form a noise superimposed on the highly periodic tides, which have astronomical origins.... In the next section we describe the analysis used to 1326 CURRENT SCIENCE, VOL. 77, NO. 10, 25 NOVEMBER 1999 COMPUTATIONAL ENGINEERING SCIENCE Figure 1b. Astronomical tide and dehyphenminustided sea level during Event 1. The dark blue vertical lines...

  5. Extreme storm surges in the south of Brazil: atmospheric conditions and shore erosion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cláudia Klose Parise

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available The region under study is regularly subject to the occurrence of storms associated with frontal systems and extratropical cyclones, since it is located near one of the cyclogenetic regions in South America. These storms can generate storm surges that cause anomalous high sea level rises on Cassino Beach. The use of reanalysis data along with an efficient technique for the location of the cyclone, using a vorticity threshold, has provided a new classification based upon the trajectories of events that produce positive sea level variation. Three patterns have been identified: 1 Cyclogenesis to the south of Argentina with displacement to the east and a trajectory between 47.5ºS and 57.5ºS; 2 Cyclogenesis to the south of Uruguay with displacement to the east and a trajectory between 35ºS and 42.5ºS; and 3 Cyclogenesis to the south of Uruguay with displacement to the southeast and a trajectory between 35ºS and 57.5ºS. Maximum water level elevation above the mean sea level and beach erosion were associated, respectively, with winter and summer storms. Cassino beach displayed a seasonal morphological behavior, with short periods of episodic erosion associated with winter storm events followed by long periods of accretion characterized by the dominance of fair weather conditions.Marés meteorológicas que geram sobre-elevações do nível do mar são freqüentes na costa do Rio Grande do Sul e respondem às variações ocorridas na atmosfera. Torna-se importante, dessa maneira, definir padrões meteorológicos sinóticos responsáveis por gerar eventos de marés meteorológicas intensas na Praia do Cassino como objetivo desse trabalho. O uso de dados de reanálise associados a uma técnica eficiente de localização do ciclone, aplicando o conceito de vorticidade, permitiu definir uma nova classificação com base na trajetória de ciclones extratropicais responsáveis pela subida do nível do mar. Três padrões de trajetórias foram

  6. Multi-hazard risk analysis related to hurricanes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Ning

    Hurricanes present major hazards to the United States. Associated with extreme winds, heavy rainfall, and storm surge, landfalling hurricanes often cause enormous structural damage to coastal regions. Hurricane damage risk assessment provides the basis for loss mitigation and related policy-making. Current hurricane risk models, however, often oversimplify the complex processes of hurricane damage. This dissertation aims to improve existing hurricane risk assessment methodology by coherently modeling the spatial-temporal processes of storm landfall, hazards, and damage. Numerical modeling technologies are used to investigate the multiplicity of hazards associated with landfalling hurricanes. The application and effectiveness of current weather forecasting technologies to predict hurricane hazards is investigated. In particular, the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF), with Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL)'s hurricane initialization scheme, is applied to the simulation of the wind and rainfall environment during hurricane landfall. The WRF model is further coupled with the Advanced Circulation (AD-CIRC) model to simulate storm surge in coastal regions. A case study examines the multiple hazards associated with Hurricane Isabel (2003). Also, a risk assessment methodology is developed to estimate the probability distribution of hurricane storm surge heights along the coast, particularly for data-scarce regions, such as New York City. This methodology makes use of relatively simple models, specifically a statistical/deterministic hurricane model and the Sea, Lake and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model, to simulate large numbers of synthetic surge events, and conducts statistical analysis. The estimation of hurricane landfall probability and hazards are combined with structural vulnerability models to estimate hurricane damage risk. Wind-induced damage mechanisms are extensively studied. An innovative windborne debris risk model is

  7. The perfect storm of information: combining traditional and non-traditional data sources for public health situational awareness during hurricane response.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennett, Kelly J; Olsen, Jennifer M; Harris, Sara; Mekaru, Sumiko; Livinski, Alicia A; Brownstein, John S

    2013-12-16

    Hurricane Isaac made landfall in southeastern Louisiana in late August 2012, resulting in extensive storm surge and inland flooding. As the lead federal agency responsible for medical and public health response and recovery coordination, the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) must have situational awareness to prepare for and address state and local requests for assistance following hurricanes. Both traditional and non-traditional data have been used to improve situational awareness in fields like disease surveillance and seismology. This study investigated whether non-traditional data (i.e., tweets and news reports) fill a void in traditional data reporting during hurricane response, as well as whether non-traditional data improve the timeliness for reporting identified HHS Essential Elements of Information (EEI). HHS EEIs provided the information collection guidance, and when the information indicated there was a potential public health threat, an event was identified and categorized within the larger scope of overall Hurricane Issac situational awareness. Tweets, news reports, press releases, and federal situation reports during Hurricane Isaac response were analyzed for information about EEIs. Data that pertained to the same EEI were linked together and given a unique event identification number to enable more detailed analysis of source content. Reports of sixteen unique events were examined for types of data sources reporting on the event and timeliness of the reports. Of these sixteen unique events identified, six were reported by only a single data source, four were reported by two data sources, four were reported by three data sources, and two were reported by four or more data sources. For five of the events where news tweets were one of multiple sources of information about an event, the tweet occurred prior to the news report, press release, local government\\emergency management tweet, and federal situation report. In all circumstances where

  8. Prevention of destructive tropical and extratropical storms, hurricanes, tornadoes, dangerous thunderstorms, and catastrophic floods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Yu. Krasilnikov

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available Tropical cyclones and storms, hurricanes, powerful thunderclouds, which generate tornadoes, destructive extratropical cyclones, which result in catastrophic floods, are the powerful cloud systems that contain huge amount of water. According to the hypothesis argued in this paper, an electric field coupled with powerful clouds and electric forces play a cardinal role in supporting this huge mass of water at a high altitude in the troposphere and in the instability of powerful clouds sometimes during rather a long time duration. Based on this hypothesis, a highly effective method of volume electric charge neutralization of powerful clouds is proposed. It results in the decrease in an electric field, a sudden increase in precipitation, and subsequent degradation of powerful clouds. This method, based on the natural phenomenon, ensures the prevention of the intensification of tropical and extratropical cyclones and their transition to the storm and hurricane (typhoon stages, which makes it possible to avoid catastrophic floods. It also ensures the suppression of severe thunderclouds, which, in turn, eliminates the development of dangerous thunderstorms and the possibility of the emergence and intensification of tornadoes.

  9. EFFECTS OF HURRICANE IVAN ON WATER QUALITY IN PENSACOLA BAY, FL USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pensacola Bay was in the strong NE quadrant of Hurricane Ivan when it made landfall on September 16, 2004 as a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. We present data describing the timeline and maximum height of the storm surge, the extent of flooding of coastal land, ...

  10. The Influence of a Precursor Central American Gyre and a Northerly Surge into the Gulf of Tehuantepec on the Formation of Hurricane Patricia in October 2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bosart, L. F.; Bentley, A. M.; Levine, A. S.; Papin, P. P.

    2016-12-01

    The National Hurricane Center (NHC) initiated advisories on Tropical Depression (TD) Patricia at 1500 UTC 20 October 2015. Patricia originated from a pre-existing area of disturbed weather over the eastern Gulf of Tehuantepec (GoT) subsequent to the formation of a Central American gyre (CAG) and a surge of northerly gap flow across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec (Chivela Pass) and into the GoT. The gap flow was driven by strong low-level height rises over the northern Gulf of Mexico behind a southeastward-moving cold front. Low-level anticyclogenesis over the Gulf of Mexico and the southeastern United States behind the cold front and CAG-related surface pressure falls over Central America contributed to the development of an anomalously strong meridional surface pressure gradient that further sustained the aforementioned gap flow. An elongated strip of cyclonic shear vorticity formed along the eastern margin of the northerly gap flow over the GoT while oceanic heat and moisture fluxes maximized in the core of the strongest flow. Subsequently, this vorticity strip broke down into a cyclonic vortex shortly by 0000 UTC 20 October which prompted the National Hurricane Center to declare that tropical depression (TD) had formed near 13.4°N and 94.0°W by 0600 UTC 20 October. This TD was named tropical storm (TS) Patricia at 0000 UTC 21 October as the developing TS moved over a region of anomalously warm SSTs and high oceanic heat content in the presence of large oceanic heat and moisture fluxes. Northerly gap flow ceased and the CAG circulation broke down as a strengthening TS Patricia in the eastern Pacific crossed the longitude (95°W) of the Chivela Pass, leading to the cessation of northerly gap flow and the onset of strengthening southerly flow. Deep tropical moisture concentrated to the north and east of the now remnant CAG circulation center was advected northwestward into the western Gulf of Mexico where it supported very heavy rainfall in southeastern Texas. This

  11. Using 18th century storm-surge data from the Dutch Coast to improve the confidence in flood-risk estimates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Baart

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available For the design of cost-effective coastal defence a precise estimate is needed of the 1/10 000 per year storm surge. A more precise estimate requires more observations. Therefore, the three greatest storm surges that hit the northern part of the Holland Coast in the 18th century are reconstructed. The reconstructions are based on paintings, drawings, written records and shell deposits that have recently appeared. The storm-surge levels of these storms have been estimated using numerical modelling of the coastal processes. Here we show how these reconstructions can be used in combination with extreme value statistics to give a more confident estimate of low probability events.

  12. Improved Satellite Techniques for Monitoring and Forecasting the Transition of Hurricanes to Extratropical Storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Folmer, Michael; Halverson, Jeffrey; Berndt, Emily; Dunion, Jason; Goodman, Steve; Goldberg, Mitch

    2014-01-01

    The Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites R-Series (GOES-R) and Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) Satellite Proving Grounds have introduced multiple proxy and operational products into operations over the last few years. Some of these products have proven to be useful in current operations at various National Weather Service (NWS) offices and national centers as a first look at future satellite capabilities. Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Ocean Prediction Center (OPC), NESDIS Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB) and the NASA Hurricane and Severe Storms Sentinel (HS3) field campaign have had access to a few of these products to assist in monitoring extratropical transitions of hurricanes. The red, green, blue (RGB) Air Mass product provides forecasters with an enhanced view of various air masses in one complete image to help differentiate between possible stratospheric/tropospheric interactions, moist tropical air masses, and cool, continental/maritime air masses. As a compliment to this product, a new Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) Ozone product was introduced in the past year to assist in diagnosing the dry air intrusions seen in the RGB Air Mass product. Finally, a lightning density product was introduced to forecasters as a precursor to the new Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) that will be housed on GOES-R, to monitor the most active regions of convection, which might indicate a disruption in the tropical environment and even signal the onset of extratropical transition. This presentation will focus on a few case studies that exhibit extratropical transition and point out the usefulness of these new satellite techniques in aiding forecasters forecast these challenging events.

  13. Compound simulation of fluvial floods and storm surges in a global coupled river-coast flood model: Model development and its application to 2007 Cyclone Sidr in Bangladesh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ikeuchi, Hiroaki; Hirabayashi, Yukiko; Yamazaki, Dai; Muis, Sanne; Ward, Philip J.; Winsemius, Hessel C.; Verlaan, Martin; Kanae, Shinjiro

    2017-08-01

    Water-related disasters, such as fluvial floods and cyclonic storm surges, are a major concern in the world's mega-delta regions. Furthermore, the simultaneous occurrence of extreme discharges from rivers and storm surges could exacerbate flood risk, compared to when they occur separately. Hence, it is of great importance to assess the compound risks of fluvial and coastal floods at a large scale, including mega-deltas. However, most studies on compound fluvial and coastal flooding have been limited to relatively small scales, and global-scale or large-scale studies have not yet addressed both of them. The objectives of this study are twofold: to develop a global coupled river-coast flood model; and to conduct a simulation of compound fluvial flooding and storm surges in Asian mega-delta regions. A state-of-the-art global river routing model was modified to represent the influence of dynamic sea surface levels on river discharges and water levels. We conducted the experiments by coupling a river model with a global tide and surge reanalysis data set. Results show that water levels in deltas and estuaries are greatly affected by the interaction between river discharge, ocean tides and storm surges. The effects of storm surges on fluvial flooding are further examined from a regional perspective, focusing on the case of Cyclone Sidr in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna Delta in 2007. Modeled results demonstrate that a >3 m storm surge propagated more than 200 km inland along rivers. We show that the performance of global river routing models can be improved by including sea level dynamics.

  14. A KNOWLEDGE DISCOVERY STRATEGY FOR RELATING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO FREQUENCIES OF TROPICAL STORMS AND GENERATING PREDICTIONS OF HURRICANES UNDER 21ST-CENTURY GLOBAL WARMING SCENARIOS

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — A KNOWLEDGE DISCOVERY STRATEGY FOR RELATING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO FREQUENCIES OF TROPICAL STORMS AND GENERATING PREDICTIONS OF HURRICANES UNDER 21ST-CENTURY...

  15. Deep Uncertainties in Sea-Level Rise and Storm Surge Projections: Implications for Coastal Flood Risk Management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oddo, Perry C; Lee, Ben S; Garner, Gregory G; Srikrishnan, Vivek; Reed, Patrick M; Forest, Chris E; Keller, Klaus

    2017-09-05

    Sea levels are rising in many areas around the world, posing risks to coastal communities and infrastructures. Strategies for managing these flood risks present decision challenges that require a combination of geophysical, economic, and infrastructure models. Previous studies have broken important new ground on the considerable tensions between the costs of upgrading infrastructure and the damages that could result from extreme flood events. However, many risk-based adaptation strategies remain silent on certain potentially important uncertainties, as well as the tradeoffs between competing objectives. Here, we implement and improve on a classic decision-analytical model (Van Dantzig 1956) to: (i) capture tradeoffs across conflicting stakeholder objectives, (ii) demonstrate the consequences of structural uncertainties in the sea-level rise and storm surge models, and (iii) identify the parametric uncertainties that most strongly influence each objective using global sensitivity analysis. We find that the flood adaptation model produces potentially myopic solutions when formulated using traditional mean-centric decision theory. Moving from a single-objective problem formulation to one with multiobjective tradeoffs dramatically expands the decision space, and highlights the need for compromise solutions to address stakeholder preferences. We find deep structural uncertainties that have large effects on the model outcome, with the storm surge parameters accounting for the greatest impacts. Global sensitivity analysis effectively identifies important parameter interactions that local methods overlook, and that could have critical implications for flood adaptation strategies. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  16. Erosion and its rate on an accumulative Polish dune coast: the effects of the January 2012 storm surge

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomasz A. Łabuz

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The Polish coast is a non-tidal area; its shores are affected mainly by autumn-winter storm surges. Those of 6 and 14 January 2012 are representative of the forces driving the erosion of normally accumulative sections of coastal dunes, monitored by the author since 1997. The sea level maximum during these two storm surges reached 1.2 to 1.5 m amsl along the Polish coast. Land forms up to 3 m amsl were inundated. Beaches and low parts of the coast up to this height were rebuilt by sea waves attacking the coast for almost 12 days. Quantitative analyses of the morphological dynamics of the coastal dunes are presented for 57 profiles located along the coast. Only those accumulative sections of the Polish coast are analysed where sand accumulation did occur and led to new foredune development. The mean rate of dune erosion was 2.5 m3 per square metre with an average toe retreat of 1.4 m. Erosion understood as dune retreat was greater when a beach was lower (correlation coefficient 0.8. Dune erosion did not occur on coasts with beaches higher than 3.2 m or on lower ones covered by embryo dunes.

  17. Influence of a Storm Surge Barrier’s Operation on the Flood Frequency in the Rhine Delta Area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hua Zhong

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available The Rhine River Delta is crucial to the Dutch economy. The Maeslant barrier was built in 1997 to protect the Rhine estuary, with the city and port of Rotterdam, from storm surges. This research takes a simple approach to quantify the influence of the Maeslant storm surge barrier on design water levels behind the barrier. The dikes in the area are supposed to be able to withstand these levels. Equal Level Curves approach is used to calculate the Rotterdam water levels by using Rhine discharges and sea water levels as input. Their joint probability function generates the occurrence frequency of a certain combination that will lead to a certain high water level in Rotterdam. The results show that the flood frequency in Rotterdam is reduced effectively with the controlled barrier in current and in future scenarios influenced by climate change. In addition, an investigation of the sensitivity of the operational parameters suggests that there is a negligible influence on the high water level frequency when the decision closing water level for the barrier is set higher due to the benefits of navigation (but not exceeding the design safety level 4 m MSL.

  18. Life defence against big storm surges. Cyclone shelter in Bangladesh; Kyodai takashio kara seimei wo mamoru. Bangladesh no cyclone shelter

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nakagawa, H. [Kyoto Univ., Kyoto (Japan). Disaster Prevention Research Inst.

    1996-08-15

    This paper presents the cyclone shelters in Bangladesh. Bangladesh has been damaged by flooding due to big storm surges caused by cyclone every year, losing many human lives and properties. The sea within 100km apart from the coast is gradually shoaling beach shallower than 10m because of sediment transport by the Ganges. Consequently, huge storm surges are easily caused by cyclone generated in Bay of Bengal. The cyclone shelter is only one refuge from cyclone. Construction of the cyclone shelters was opened in the 1960s, and the public work department (PWD) in the government had constructed the cyclone shelters under support by International Development Association (IDA) since 1970. At the same time, BDRCS had constructed the shelters under support by Red Cross Societies of every country, and positive NGOs such as Caritas had been also in the same action. Because many cyclone shelters became too old for use, construction of new cyclone shelters was opened again just after disaster in 1991. 2 refs., 8 figs., 1 tab.

  19. Application of SWAN+ADCIRC to tide-surge and wave simulation in Gulf of Maine during Patriot's Day storm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dong-mei Xie

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The southern coast of the Gulf of Maine in the United States is prone to flooding caused by nor'easters. A state-of-the-art fully-coupled model, the Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN model with unstructured grids and the ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC model, was used to study the hydrodynamic response in the Gulf of Maine during the Patriot's Day storm of 2007, a notable example of nor'easters in this area. The model predictions agree well with the observed tide-surges and waves during this storm event. Waves and circulation in the Gulf of Maine were analyzed. The Georges Bank plays an important role in dissipating wave energy through the bottom friction when waves propagate over the bank from offshore to the inner gulf due to its shallow bathymetry. Wave energy dissipation results in decreasing significant wave height (SWH in the cross-bank direction and wave radiation stress gradient, which in turn induces changes in currents. While the tidal currents are dominant over the Georges Bank and in the Bay of Fundy, the residual currents generated by the meteorological forcing and waves are significant over the Georges Bank and in the coastal area and can reach 0.3 m/s and 0.2 m/s, respectively. In the vicinity of the coast, the longshore current generated by the surface wind stress and wave radiation stress acting parallel to the coastline is inversely proportional to the water depth and will eventually be limited by the bottom friction. The storm surge level reaches 0.8 m along the western periphery of the Gulf of Maine while the wave set-up due to radiation stress variation reaches 0.2 m. Therefore, it is significant to coastal flooding.

  20. Storm surges in the Singapore Strait due to winds in the South China Sea

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Tkalich, P.; Vethamony, P.; Babu, M.T.; Malanotte-Rizzoli, P.

    on the north, Karimata Strait on the south, east cost of Peninsular Malaysia on the west, and break of Sunda Shelf on the east, could experience positive or negative SLAs depending on the wind direction and speed. Strong sea level surges during NE monsoon...

  1. Cost-efficient and storm surge-sensitive bridge design for coastal Maine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-08-01

    Climatic variation felt through changing weather patterns is having increasingly acute effects on Maines : transportation infrastructure. Acute risk occurs as a result of events, such as storms and flooding, while chronic risk : surrounds longer r...

  2. Contrasting Hydrodynamic and Environmental Effects of Hurricanes Harvey and Ike in a Highly Industrialized Estuary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiaghadi, A.; Rifai, H. S.

    2017-12-01

    It is commonly believed that storm surge is the most destructive aspect of hurricanes. However, massive rainfall with a return period of 100 years or more induced by hurricanes can cause more catastrophic damage than losses caused by storm surge as demonstrated recently by hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria. In this study the hydrodynamics and environmental effects of hurricanes Ike and Harvey were compared and contrasted by linking hydrodynamic flow models with water quality models to simulate spills from storage tanks located in the Houston Ship Channel (HSC). Hurricane Ike with a maximum surge of 5.3 meters in Galveston Bay and Harvey with a maximum rainfall of 1.25 meters both struck the HSC region in Texas in 2008 and 2017, respectively. Both events resulted in numerous spills from municipal and industrial facilities, hazardous waste sites, superfund sites, and landfills. The Environmental Fluid Dynamic Code (EFDC) was coupled with the SWAN+ADCIRC hurricane simulation model to simulate Hurricane Ike and EFDC was coupled with USGS flow boundary conditions to model Hurricane Harvey. A conservative dye release was used to simulate a chemical release during each event. The results showed Hurricane Harvey caused higher water surface elevations within the HSC accompanied by longer and wider-spread land inundation. In contrast, higher water surface elevations were observed within the shallow side bays during Hurricane Ike that caused sediment resuspension and repartitioning of pollutants. Rapid spill mass transportation was observed for both hurricanes; 50% of total spill mass reached Galveston Bay in 20 and 22 hours after a spill event for Hurricane Harvey and Ike, respectively, and more than 90% of the spill mass reached the bay in 36 and 48 hours, respectively. Unlike Hurricane Harvey, the conservative tracer was spread almost 2.5 km upstream of the releasing point for Hurricane Ike due to surge. However, during Harvey, 35% more land was affected by the spilled

  3. Coastal flooding: impact of waves on storm surge during extremes – a case study for the German Bight

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Staneva

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available This study addresses the impact of wind, waves, tidal forcing and baroclinicity on the sea level of the German Bight during extreme storm events. The role of wave-induced processes, tides and baroclinicity is quantified, and the results are compared with in situ measurements and satellite data. A coupled high-resolution modelling system is used to simulate wind waves, the water level and the three-dimensional hydrodynamics. The models used are the wave model WAM and the circulation model GETM. The two-way coupling is performed via the OASIS3-MCT coupler. The effects of wind waves on sea level variability are studied, accounting for wave-dependent stress, wave-breaking parameterization and wave-induced effects on vertical mixing. The analyses of the coupled model results reveal a closer match with observations than for the stand-alone circulation model, especially during the extreme storm Xaver in December 2013. The predicted surge of the coupled model is significantly enhanced during extreme storm events when considering wave–current interaction processes. This wave-dependent approach yields a contribution of more than 30 % in some coastal areas during extreme storm events. The contribution of a fully three-dimensional model compared with a two-dimensional barotropic model showed up to 20 % differences in the water level of the coastal areas of the German Bight during Xaver. The improved skill resulting from the new developments justifies further use of the coupled-wave and three-dimensional circulation models in coastal flooding predictions.

  4. A linear relationship between wave power and erosion determines salt-marsh resilience to violent storms and hurricanes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leonardi, Nicoletta; Ganju, Neil K.; Fagherazzi, Sergio

    2016-01-01

    Salt marsh losses have been documented worldwide because of land use change, wave erosion, and sea-level rise. It is still unclear how resistant salt marshes are to extreme storms and whether they can survive multiple events without collapsing. Based on a large dataset of salt marsh lateral erosion rates collected around the world, here, we determine the general response of salt marsh boundaries to wave action under normal and extreme weather conditions. As wave energy increases, salt marsh response to wind waves remains linear, and there is not a critical threshold in wave energy above which salt marsh erosion drastically accelerates. We apply our general formulation for salt marsh erosion to historical wave climates at eight salt marsh locations affected by hurricanes in the United States. Based on the analysis of two decades of data, we find that violent storms and hurricanes contribute less than 1% to long-term salt marsh erosion rates. In contrast, moderate storms with a return period of 2.5 mo are those causing the most salt marsh deterioration. Therefore, salt marshes seem more susceptible to variations in mean wave energy rather than changes in the extremes. The intrinsic resistance of salt marshes to violent storms and their predictable erosion rates during moderate events should be taken into account by coastal managers in restoration projects and risk management plans.

  5. A linear relationship between wave power and erosion determines salt-marsh resilience to violent storms and hurricanes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leonardi, Nicoletta; Ganju, Neil K; Fagherazzi, Sergio

    2016-01-05

    Salt marsh losses have been documented worldwide because of land use change, wave erosion, and sea-level rise. It is still unclear how resistant salt marshes are to extreme storms and whether they can survive multiple events without collapsing. Based on a large dataset of salt marsh lateral erosion rates collected around the world, here, we determine the general response of salt marsh boundaries to wave action under normal and extreme weather conditions. As wave energy increases, salt marsh response to wind waves remains linear, and there is not a critical threshold in wave energy above which salt marsh erosion drastically accelerates. We apply our general formulation for salt marsh erosion to historical wave climates at eight salt marsh locations affected by hurricanes in the United States. Based on the analysis of two decades of data, we find that violent storms and hurricanes contribute less than 1% to long-term salt marsh erosion rates. In contrast, moderate storms with a return period of 2.5 mo are those causing the most salt marsh deterioration. Therefore, salt marshes seem more susceptible to variations in mean wave energy rather than changes in the extremes. The intrinsic resistance of salt marshes to violent storms and their predictable erosion rates during moderate events should be taken into account by coastal managers in restoration projects and risk management plans.

  6. What caused the rise of water level in the battle of Luermen bay in 1661? Tsunami, Storm surge, or Tide?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Tso-Ren; Wu, Han; Tsai, Yu-Lin

    2016-04-01

    In 1661, Chinese navy led by General Zheng Chenggong at the end of Ming Dynasty had a naval battle against Netherlands. This battle was not only the first official sea warfare that China confronted the Western world, but also the only naval battle won by Chinese Navy so far. This event was important because it changed the fate of Taiwan until today. One of the critical points that General Zheng won the battle was entering Luermen bay unexpected. Luermen bay was and is an extreme shallow bay with a 2.1m maximum water depth during the high tide, which was not possible for a fleet of 20,000 marines to across. Therefore, no defense was deployed from the Netherlands side. However, plenty of historical literatures mentioned a strange phenomenon that helped Chinese warships entered the Luermen bay, the rise of water level. In this study, we will discuss the possible causes that might rise the water level, e.g. Tsunami, storm surge, and high tide. We analyzed it based on the knowledge of hydrodynamics. We performed the newly developed Impact Intensify Analysis (IIA) for finding the potential tsunami sources, and the COMCOT tsunami model was adopted for the nonlinear scenario simulations, associated with the high resolution bathymetry data. Both earthquake and mudslide tsunamis were inspected. Other than that, we also collected the information of tide and weather for identifying the effects form high tide and storm surge. After the thorough study, a scenario that satisfy most of the descriptions in the historical literatures will be presented. The results will explain the cause of mysterious event that changed the destiny of Taiwan.

  7. Strengthening the resiliency of the coastal transportation system through integrated simulation of storm surge, inundation, and non-recurrent congestion in Northeast Florida.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-05-01

    In this study, the MTEVA (Developed as part of CMS #2009-010) has been advanced to apply storm surge and evacuation models to the greater Jacksonville area of Northeast Florida. Heuristic and time dynamic algorithms have been enhanced to work with th...

  8. PCR and culture identification of pathogenic Leptospira spp. from coastal soil in Leyte, Philippines, after a storm surge during Super Typhoon Haiyan (Yolanda).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saito, Mitsumasa; Miyahara, Satoshi; Villanueva, Sharon Y A M; Aramaki, Natsumi; Ikejiri, Mami; Kobayashi, Yoshie; Guevarra, Jonathan P; Masuzawa, Toshiyuki; Gloriani, Nina G; Yanagihara, Yasutake; Yoshida, Shin-ichi

    2014-11-01

    Leptospirosis is a zoonosis caused by pathogenic Leptospira spp. Most of the outbreaks of leptospirosis occur after floods caused by heavy rain in countries where Leptospira spp. are endemic. It has been believed that the overflow of seawater rarely causes outbreaks of leptospirosis because the leptospires are killed by salt water. On 8 November 2013, a storm surge caused by Super Typhoon Haiyan (Yolanda) inundated the entire coastal areas of Tacloban and Palo in Leyte, Philippines. The present study was carried out in order to determine whether the environmental leptospires in soil were able to survive after the storm surge in the affected areas. We collected 23 wet soil samples along the coastal areas of Tacloban and Palo 2 months after the storm surge. The samples were suspended in HEPES buffer, and the supernatants were cultured in liquid or semisolid Korthof's medium supplemented with five antimicrobial agents to inhibit the growth of contaminants. Leptospires were isolated from primary cultures of 22 out of 23 samples. The DNA of pathogenic Leptospira species was detected in 11 samples (47.8%) by analysis of flaB by nested PCR. Eventually, two pathogenic Leptospira strains were isolated and showed the highest 16S rRNA gene sequence similarity to Leptospira kmetyi. When these isolates were experimentally mixed with soil, they were found to survive in seawater for 4 days. These results show the possibility that leptospires living in soil survived after the storm surge. Our findings may serve as a warning that when seawater inundates the land during a storm surge or a tsunami, an outbreak of leptospirosis could occur in the disaster-stricken area. Copyright © 2014, American Society for Microbiology. All Rights Reserved.

  9. Regional Risk Assessment for the analysis of the risks related to storm surge extreme events in the coastal area of the North Adriatic Sea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rizzi, Jonathan; Torresan, Silvia; Gallina, Valentina; Critto, Andrea; Marcomini, Antonio

    2013-04-01

    Europe's coast faces a variety of climate change threats from extreme high tides, storm surges and rising sea levels. In particular, it is very likely that mean sea level rise will contribute to upward trends in extreme coastal high water levels, thus posing higher risks to coastal locations currently experiencing coastal erosion and inundation processes. In 2007 the European Commission approved the Flood Directive (2007/60/EC), which has the main purpose to establish a framework for the assessment and management of flood risks for inland and coastal areas, thus reducing the adverse consequences for human health, the environment, cultural heritage and economic activities. Improvements in scientific understanding are thus needed to inform decision-making about the best strategies for mitigating and managing storm surge risks in coastal areas. The CLIMDAT project is aimed at improving the understanding of the risks related to extreme storm surge events in the coastal area of the North Adriatic Sea (Italy), considering potential climate change scenarios. The project implements a Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology developed in the FP7 KULTURisk project for the assessment of physical/environmental impacts posed by flood hazards and employs the DEcision support SYstem for Coastal climate change impact assessment (DESYCO) for the application of the methodology to the case study area. The proposed RRA methodology is aimed at the identification and prioritization of targets and areas at risk from water-related natural hazards in the considered region at the meso-scale. To this aim, it integrates information about extreme storm surges with bio-geophysical and socio-economic information (e.g. vegetation cover, slope, soil type, population density) of the analyzed receptors (i.e. people, economic activities, cultural heritages, natural and semi-natural systems). Extreme storm surge hazard scenarios are defined using tide gauge time series coming from 28 tide gauge

  10. Using recent hurricanes and associated event layers to evaluate regional storm impacts on estuarine-wetland systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, C. G.; Marot, M. E.; Osterman, L. E.; Adams, C. S.; Haller, C.; Jones, M.

    2016-12-01

    Tropical cyclones are a major driver of change in coastal and estuarine environments. Heightened waves and sea level associated with tropical cyclones act to erode sediment from one environment and redistribute it to adjacent environments. The fate and transport of this redistributed material is of great importance to the long-term sediment budget, which in turns affects the vulnerability of these coastal systems. The spatial variance in both storm impacts and sediment redistribution is large. At the regional-scale, difference in storm impacts can often be attributed to natural variability in geologic parameters (sediment availability/erodibility), coastal geomorphology (including fetch, shoreline tortuosity, back-barrier versus estuarine shoreline, etc.), storm characteristics (intensity, duration, track/approach), and ecology (vegetation type, gradient, density). To assess storm characteristics and coastal geomorphology on a regional-scale, cores were collected from seven Juncus marshes located in coastal regions of Alabama and Mississippi (i.e., Mobile Bay, Bon Secour Bay, Mississippi Sound, and Grand Bay) expected to have been impacted by Hurricane Frederic (1979). All cores were sectioned and processed for water content, organic matter (loss-on-ignition), and select cores analyzed for foraminiferal assemblages, stable isotopes and bulk metals to aid in the identification of storm events. Excess lead-210 and cesium-137 were used to develop chronologies for the cores and evaluate mass accumulation rates and sedimentation rates. Temporal variations in accumulation rates of inorganic and organic sediments were compared with shoreline and areal change rates derived from historic aerial imagery to evaluate potential changes in sediment exchange prior to, during, and following the storm. A combined geospatial and geologic approach will improve our understanding of coastal change in estuarine marsh environments, as well help refine the influence of storms on regional

  11. Brief communication "Hurricane Irene: a wake-up call for New York City?"

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. C. J. H. Aerts

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The weakening of Irene from a Category 3 hurricane to a tropical storm resulted in less damage in New York City (NYC than initially was anticipated. It is widely recognized that the storm surge and associated flooding could have been much more severe. In a recent study, we showed that a direct hit to the city from a hurricane may expose an enormous number of people to flooding. A major hurricane has the potential to cause large-scale damage in NYC. The city's resilience to flooding can be increased by improving and integrating flood insurance, flood zoning, and building code policies.

  12. Numerical Analysis of Storm Surge and Seiche at Tokyo Bay caused by the 2 Similar Typhoons, Typhoon Phanphon and Vongfong in 2014

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iwamoto, T.; Takagawa, T.

    2017-12-01

    A long period damped oscillation, or seiche, sometimes happens inside a harbor after passing typhoon. For some cases, a maximum sea level is observed due to the superposition of astronomical tide and seiche rather than a peak of storm surge. Hence to clarify seiche factors for reducing disaster potential is important, a long-period seiche with a fundamental period of 5.46 hours in Tokyo Bay (Konishi, 2008) was investigated through numerical simulations and analyses. We examined the case of Typhoon Phanphon and Vongfong in 2014 (Hereafter Case P and V). The intensity and moving velocity were similar and the best-tracks were an arc-shaped, typical one approaching to Tokyo Bay. The track of Case V was about 1.5 degree higher latitude than that of Case P, only Typhoon Phanphon caused significant seiche.Firstly, numerical simulations for the 2 storm surges at Tokyo Bay were conducted by Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) and Meso-Scale Model Grid Point Values (MSM-GPV). MSM-GPV gave the 10m wind speed and Sea Level Pressure (SLP), especially the Mean Error (ME) and Root Mean Squire Error (RMSE) of SLP were low compared to the 12 JMA observation points data (Case P: ME -0.303hPa, RMSE 1.87hPa, Case V: ME -0.285hPa, RMSE 0.74hPa). The computational results showed that the maximum of storm surge was underestimated but the difference was less than 20cm at 5 observation points in Tokyo Bay(Fig.1, 2).Then, power spectrals, coherences and phase differences of storm surges at the 5 observation points were obtained by spectral analysis of observed and simulated waveforms. For Case P, the phase-difference between the bay mouth and innermost part of Tokyo Bay was little, and coherence was almost 1(Fig.3, 4). However, for Case V, coherence was small around the fundamental period of 5.46 hours. Furthermore, Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis of storm surge, SLP and sea surface stress were conducted. The contributions of EOF1 were above 90% for the all variables, the

  13. Using Direct Policy Search to Identify Robust Strategies in Adapting to Uncertain Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garner, G. G.; Keller, K.

    2017-12-01

    Sea-level rise poses considerable risks to coastal communities, ecosystems, and infrastructure. Decision makers are faced with deeply uncertain sea-level projections when designing a strategy for coastal adaptation. The traditional methods have provided tremendous insight into this decision problem, but are often silent on tradeoffs as well as the effects of tail-area events and of potential future learning. Here we reformulate a simple sea-level rise adaptation model to address these concerns. We show that Direct Policy Search yields improved solution quality, with respect to Pareto-dominance in the objectives, over the traditional approach under uncertain sea-level rise projections and storm surge. Additionally, the new formulation produces high quality solutions with less computational demands than the traditional approach. Our results illustrate the utility of multi-objective adaptive formulations for the example of coastal adaptation, the value of information provided by observations, and point to wider-ranging application in climate change adaptation decision problems.

  14. Tide-surge historical assessment of extreme water levels for the St. Johns River: 1928-2017

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bacopoulos, Peter

    2017-10-01

    An historical storm population is developed for the St. Johns River, located in northeast Florida-US east coast, via extreme value assessment of an 89-year-long record of hourly water-level data. Storm surge extrema and the corresponding (independent) storm systems are extracted from the historical record as well as the linear and nonlinear trends of mean sea level. Peaks-over-threshold analysis reveals the top 16 most-impactful (storm surge) systems in the general return-period range of 1-100 years. Hurricane Matthew (2016) broke the record with a new absolute maximum water level of 1.56 m, although the peak surge occurred during slack tide level (0.00 m). Hurricanes and tropical systems contribute to return periods of 10-100 years with water levels in the approximate range of 1.3-1.55 m. Extratropical systems and nor'easters contribute to the historical storm population (in the general return-period range of 1-10 years) and are capable of producing extreme storm surges (in the approximate range of 1.15-1.3 m) on par with those generated by hurricanes and tropical systems. The highest astronomical tide is 1.02 m, which by evaluation of the historical record can contribute as much as 94% to the total storm-tide water level. Statically, a hypothetical scenario of Hurricane Matthew's peak surge coinciding with the highest astronomical tide would yield an overall storm-tide water level of 2.58 m, corresponding to an approximate 1000-year return period by historical comparison. Sea-level trends (linear and nonlinear) impact water-level return periods and constitute additional risk hazard for coastal engineering designs.

  15. Application of a Coupled Vegetation Competition and Groundwater Simulation Model to Study Effects of Sea Level Rise and Storm Surges on Coastal Vegetation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Su Yean Teh

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Global climate change poses challenges to areas such as low-lying coastal zones, where sea level rise (SLR and storm-surge overwash events can have long-term effects on vegetation and on soil and groundwater salinities, posing risks of habitat loss critical to native species. An early warning system is urgently needed to predict and prepare for the consequences of these climate-related impacts on both the short-term dynamics of salinity in the soil and groundwater and the long-term effects on vegetation. For this purpose, the U.S. Geological Survey’s spatially explicit model of vegetation community dynamics along coastal salinity gradients (MANHAM is integrated into the USGS groundwater model (SUTRA to create a coupled hydrology–salinity–vegetation model, MANTRA. In MANTRA, the uptake of water by plants is modeled as a fluid mass sink term. Groundwater salinity, water saturation and vegetation biomass determine the water available for plant transpiration. Formulations and assumptions used in the coupled model are presented. MANTRA is calibrated with salinity data and vegetation pattern for a coastal area of Florida Everglades vulnerable to storm surges. A possible regime shift at that site is investigated by simulating the vegetation responses to climate variability and disturbances, including SLR and storm surges based on empirical information.

  16. Hurricane Gustav: Observations and Analysis of Coastal Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doran, Kara S.; Stockdon, Hilary F.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Sallenger, Asbury H.; Guy, Kristy K.; Serafin, Katherine A.

    2009-01-01

    Understanding storm-induced coastal change and forecasting these changes require knowledge of the physical processes associated with a storm and the geomorphology of the impacted coastline. The primary physical processes of interest are the wind field, storm surge, currents, and wave field. Not only does wind cause direct damage to structures along the coast, but it is ultimately responsible for much of the energy that is transferred to the ocean and expressed as storm surge, mean currents, and surface waves. Waves and currents are the processes most responsible for moving sediments in the coastal zone during extreme storm events. Storm surge, which is the rise in water level due to the wind, barometric pressure, and other factors, allows both waves and currents to attack parts of the coast not normally exposed to these processes. Coastal geomorphology, including shapes of the shoreline, beaches, and dunes, is also a significant aspect of the coastal change observed during extreme storms. Relevant geomorphic variables include sand dune elevation, beach width, shoreline position, sediment grain size, and foreshore beach slope. These variables, in addition to hydrodynamic processes, can be used to predict coastal vulnerability to storms. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Assessment of Coastal Change Hazards project (http://coastal.er.usgs.gov/hurricanes) strives to provide hazard information to those concerned about the Nation's coastlines, including residents of coastal areas, government agencies responsible for coastal management, and coastal researchers. As part of the National Assessment, observations were collected to measure morphological changes associated with Hurricane Gustav, which made landfall near Cocodrie, Louisiana, on September 1, 2008. Methods of observation included oblique aerial photography, airborne topographic surveys, and ground-based topographic surveys. This report documents these data-collection efforts and presents qualitative and

  17. Hurricane Ike: Observations and Analysis of Coastal Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doran, Kara S.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Stockdon, Hilary F.; Sallenger, Asbury H.; Serafin, Katherine A.

    2009-01-01

    Understanding storm-induced coastal change and forecasting these changes require knowledge of the physical processes associated with the storm and the geomorphology of the impacted coastline. The primary physical processes of interest are the wind field, storm surge, and wave climate. Not only does wind cause direct damage to structures along the coast, but it is ultimately responsible for much of the energy that is transferred to the ocean and expressed as storm surge, mean currents, and large waves. Waves and currents are the processes most responsible for moving sediments in the coastal zone during extreme storm events. Storm surge, the rise in water level due to the wind, barometric pressure, and other factors, allows both waves and currents to attack parts of the coast not normally exposed to those processes. Coastal geomorphology, including shapes of the shoreline, beaches, and dunes, is equally important to the coastal change observed during extreme storm events. Relevant geomorphic variables include sand dune elevation, beach width, shoreline position, sediment grain size, and foreshore beach slope. These variables, in addition to hydrodynamic processes, can be used to predict coastal vulnerability to storms The U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) National Assessment of Coastal Change Hazards Project (http://coastal.er.usgs.gov/hurricanes), strives to provide hazard information to those interested in the Nation's coastlines, including residents of coastal areas, government agencies responsible for coastal management, and coastal researchers. As part of the National Assessment, observations were collected to measure coastal changes associated with Hurricane Ike, which made landfall near Galveston, Texas, on September 13, 2008. Methods of observation included aerial photography and airborne topographic surveys. This report documents these data-collection efforts and presents qualitative and quantitative descriptions of hurricane-induced changes to the shoreline

  18. Perceptions of severe storms, climate change, ecological structures and resiliency three years post-hurricane Sandy in New Jersey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burger, Joanna; Gochfeld, Michael

    2017-12-01

    Global warming is leading to increased frequency and severity of storms that are associated with flooding, increasing the risk to urban, coastal populations. This study examined perceptions of the relationship between severe storms, sea level rise, climate change and ecological barriers by a vulnerable environmental justice population in New Jersey. Patients using New Jersey's Federally Qualified Health Centers were interviewed after Hurricane [Superstorm] Sandy because it is essential to understand the perceptions of uninsured, underinsured, and economically challenged people to better develop a resiliency strategy for the most vulnerable people. Patients ( N = 355) using 6 centers were interviewed using a structured interview form. Patients were interviewed in the order they entered the reception area, in either English or Spanish. Respondents were asked to rate their agreement with environmental statements. Respondents 1) agreed with experts that "severe storms were due to climate change", "storms will come more often", and that "flooding was due to sea level rise", 2) did not agree as strongly that "climate change was due to human activity", 3) were neutral for statements that " Sandy damages were due to loss of dunes or salt marshes". 4) did not differ as a function of ethnic/racial categories, and 5) showed few gender differences. It is imperative that the public understand that climate change and sea level rise are occurring so that they support community programs (and funding) to prepare for increased frequency of storms and coastal flooding. The lack of high ratings for the role of dunes and marshes in preventing flooding indicates a lack of understanding that ecological structures protect coasts, and suggests a lack of support for management actions to restore dunes as part of a coastal preparedness strategy. Perceptions that do not support a public policy of coastal zone management to protect coastlines can lead to increased flooding, extensive property

  19. A Case Study of Preliminary Cost-Benefit Analysis of Building Levees to Mitigate the Joint Effects of Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Binbin Peng

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Sea-level rise (SLR will magnify the impacts of storm surge; the resulting severe flooding and inundation can cause huge damage to coastal communities. Community leaders are considering implementing adaptation strategies, typically hard engineering projects, to protect coastal assets and resources. It is important to understand the costs and benefits of the proposed project before any decision is made. To mitigate the flooding impact of joint effects of storm surge and SLR, building levee segments is chosen to be a corresponding adaptation strategy to protect the real estate assets in the study area—the City of Miami, FL, USA. This paper uses the classic Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA to assess the cost efficiency and proposes corresponding improvements in the benefit estimation, by estimating the avoided damages of implementing levee projects. Results show that the city will benefit from implementing levee projects along the Miami River in both a one-time 10 year storm event with SLR and cumulative long-term damage scenarios. This study also suggests that conducting CBA is a critical process before making coastal adaptation planning investment. A more meaningful result of cost effectiveness is estimated by accounting for the appreciation and time value. In addition, a sensitivity analysis is conducted to verify how the choice of discount rate influences the result. Uncertain factors including the rate of SLR, storm intensification, land use changes, and real estate appreciation are further analyzed.

  20. Biogeochemical Impact of Hurricane Harvey on Texas Coastal Lagoons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montagna, P.; Hu, X.; Walker, L.; Wetz, M.

    2017-12-01

    Hurricane Harvey made landfall Friday 25 August 2017 as a Category 4 hurricane, which is the strongest hurricane to hit the middle Texas coast since Carla in 1961. After the wind storm and storm surge, coastal flooding occurred due to the storm lingering over Texas for four more days, dumping as much as 50" of rain near Houston, producing 1:1000 year flood event. The Texas coast is characterized by lagoons behind barrier islands, and their ecology and biogeochemistry are strongly influenced by coastal hydrology. The ensuing inflow event replaced brackish water with fresh water that was high in inorganic an organic matter, significantly enhancing respiration of coastal blue carbon, and dissolved oxygen went to zero for a long period of time. Recovery will likely take months or nearly one year.

  1. Hurricane Isaac: observations and analysis of coastal change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guy, Kristy K.; Stockdon, Hilary F.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Doran, Kara S.; Morgan, Karen L.M.

    2013-01-01

    Understanding storm-induced coastal change and forecasting these changes require knowledge of the physical processes associated with a storm and the geomorphology of the impacted coastline. The primary physical process of interest is sediment transport that is driven by waves, currents, and storm surge associated with storms. Storm surge, which is the rise in water level due to the wind, barometric pressure, and other factors, allows both waves and currents to impact parts of the coast not normally exposed to these processes. Coastal geomorphology reflects the coastal changes associated with extreme-storm processes. Relevant geomorphic variables that are observable before and after storms include sand dune elevation, beach width, shoreline position, sediment grain size, and foreshore beach slope. These variables, in addition to hydrodynamic processes, can be used to quantify coastal change and are used to predict coastal vulnerability to storms (Stockdon and others, 2007). The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Assessment of Coastal Change Hazards (NACCH) project (http://coastal.er.usgs.gov/national-assessment/) provides hazard information to those concerned about the Nation’s coastlines, including residents of coastal areas, government agencies responsible for coastal management, and coastal researchers. Extreme-storm research is a component of the NACCH project (http://coastal.er.usgs.gov/hurricanes/) that includes development of predictive understanding, vulnerability assessments using models, and updated observations in response to specific storm events. In particular, observations were made to determine morphological changes associated with Hurricane Isaac, which made landfall in the United States first at Southwest Pass, at the mouth of the Mississippi River, at 0000 August 29, 2012 UTC (Coordinated Universal Time) and again, 8 hours later, west of Port Fourchon, Louisiana (Berg, 2013). Methods of observation included oblique aerial photography

  2. Sedimentological and Micropaleontological Characteristics of the 2015 Hurricane Joaquin Deposit and their Implications for Long-Term Records of Storms and Tsunamis Impacting the Caribbean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kosciuch, T. J.; Pilarczyk, J.; Reinhardt, E. G.; Mauviel, A.; Aucoin, C. D.

    2017-12-01

    The uncertainty of extreme wave events in the Caribbean was highlighted in October 2015 when Hurricane Joaquin tracked through, or near, several islands (e.g., Bahamas, Haiti, Turks and Caicos) as a Category 4 storm. The short observational record of landfalling hurricanes is insufficient in preparing many of these islands for such a rare, intense storm. Examining the sediments deposited by recent landfalling hurricanes assists the understanding of the long-term spatial and temporal variations in storm frequency and intensity. However, the interpretation of prehistoric hurricane deposits in the Caribbean is complicated by the possibility of tsunami deposits (e.g., Puerto Rico Trench, 1755 Lisbon Tsunami), which are similar in composition and difficult to differentiate from storm sediments. To circumvent this problem, we describe the microfossil and sedimentary characteristics of a modern storm analogue, the Hurricane Joaquin deposit, from San Salvador Island in the Bahamas and use it as a basis for interpreting a series of 10 anomalous sand deposits found in a coastal pond. San Salvador is a small (160 km2) island in the Bahamas with a history of landfalling hurricanes and tsunamis. On 4 October 2015, Hurricane Joaquin came within 7 km of San Salvador, inundating most of its coastline and depositing two distinct layers: a sand layer and a boulder layer. The sand layer was 12 to 104 cm thick, extended 135 m inland, and consisted of fine to medium sand. The sand layer contained high abundances of foraminifera, including Homotrema rubra, a foraminifer that lives on the reef and is detached by large waves. The presence of well-preserved fragments of Homotrema within the Joaquin deposit suggests transport from the reef and rapid burial. The boulder layer included large clasts (30 to 200 cm in length) that were imbricated perpendicular to the shoreline and extended 135 m inland. The boulder layer was more laterally extensive (1020 m) than the sand layer (110 m). The

  3. Deaths associated with Hurricane Sandy - October-November 2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-05-24

    On October 29, 2012, Hurricane Sandy hit the northeastern U.S. coastline. Sandy's tropical storm winds stretched over 900 miles (1,440 km), causing storm surges and destruction over a larger area than that affected by hurricanes with more intensity but narrower paths. Based on storm surge predictions, mandatory evacuations were ordered on October 28, including for New York City's Evacuation Zone A, the coastal zone at risk for flooding from any hurricane. By October 31, the region had 6-12 inches (15-30 cm) of precipitation, 7-8 million customers without power, approximately 20,000 persons in shelters, and news reports of numerous fatalities (Robert Neurath, CDC, personal communication, 2013). To characterize deaths related to Sandy, CDC analyzed data on 117 hurricane-related deaths captured by American Red Cross (Red Cross) mortality tracking during October 28-November 30, 2012. This report describes the results of that analysis, which found drowning was the most common cause of death related to Sandy, and 45% of drowning deaths occurred in flooded homes in Evacuation Zone A. Drowning is a leading cause of hurricane death but is preventable with advance warning systems and evacuation plans. Emergency plans should ensure that persons receive and comprehend evacuation messages and have the necessary resources to comply with them.

  4. The transforming perception of a regional geohazard between coastal defence and mediated discourse on global warming: Storm surges in Hamburg, Germany

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neverla, I.; Lüthje, C.

    2010-03-01

    The term regional geohazard is used for a major geophysical risk which can lead to a natural disaster. The effects will be strictly located to a specific region. It is expected but still not proven that global warming will intensify weather extremes and thus the number of regional geohazards will increase. Regional geohazards are not dangerous per se, but from the perspective of human being certain weather and nature extremes are considered dangerous as they impose damage on human beings and their belongings. Therefore the media often call them ‘natural disaster’ and as a matter of fact it seems to be a ‘must’ - according to theory and practice of news selections - that media report on any natural disaster that occur in their region. Moreover, media even report on geohazards in any other region as soon as these events seem to have any general impact. The major geophysical risk along the coast of the North Sea is storm surges. A long list of historical disasters has deeply engraved the ubiquity of this hazard into the collective memory and habitus of the local population. Not only coastal region is concerned by this danger but also the megacity of Hamburg. Hamburg is the second-largest city in Germany and the sixth-largest city in the European Union. The Hamburg Metropolitan Region has more than 4.3 million inhabitants. The estuary of the river Elbe extends from Cuxhaven (coast) to Hamburg a distance of about 130 km. Hamburg has often been subject to storm surges with significant damages. But after the storm flood in 1855 for more than 100 years until 1962 no severe storm surge happened. The Big Flood in the night from February 16 to February 17 1962 destroyed the homes of about 60.000 people. The death toll amounted to 315 in the city of Hamburg, where the storm surge had a traumatic impact and was followed by political decisions driven by the believe in technological solutions. After 1962 massive investments into the coastal defence were made and dikes

  5. Understanding the Relationships Between Lightning, Cloud Microphysics, and Airborne Radar-derived Storm Structure During Hurricane Karl (2010)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reinhart, Brad; Fuelberg, Henry; Blakeslee, Richard; Mach, Douglas; Heymsfield, Andrew; Bansemer, Aaron; Durden, Stephen L.; Tanelli, Simone; Heymsfield, Gerald; Lambrigtsen, Bjorn

    2013-01-01

    This study explores relationships between lightning, cloud microphysics, and tropical cyclone (TC) storm structure in Hurricane Karl (16 September 2010) using data collected by the NASA DC-8 and Global Hawk (GH) aircraft during NASA's Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes (GRIP) experiment. The research capitalizes on the unique opportunity provided by GRIP to synthesize multiple datasets from two aircraft and analyze the microphysical and kinematic properties of an electrified TC. Five coordinated flight legs through Karl by the DC-8 and GH are investigated, focusing on the inner-core region (within 50km of the storm center) where the lightning was concentrated and the aircraft were well coordinated. GRIP datasets are used to compare properties of electrified and nonelectrified inner-core regions that are related to the noninductive charging mechanism, which is widely accepted to explain the observed electric fields within thunderstorms. Three common characteristics of Karl's electrified regions are identified: 1) strong updrafts of 10-20ms21, 2) deep mixed-phase layers indicated by reflectivities.30 dBZ extending several kilometers above the freezing level, and 3) microphysical environments consisting of graupel, very small ice particles, and the inferred presence of supercooled water. These characteristics describe an environment favorable for in situ noninductive charging and, hence, TC electrification. The electrified regions in Karl's inner core are attributable to a microphysical environment that was conducive to electrification because of occasional, strong convective updrafts in the eyewall.

  6. Ocean Observing Public-Private Collaboration to Improve Tropical Storm and Hurricane Predictions in the Gulf of Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perry, R.; Leung, P.; McCall, W.; Martin, K. M.; Howden, S. D.; Vandermeulen, R. A.; Kim, H. S. S.; Kirkpatrick, B. A.; Watson, S.; Smith, W.

    2016-02-01

    In 2008, Shell partnered with NOAA to explore opportunities for improving storm predictions in the Gulf of Mexico. Since, the collaboration has grown to include partners from Shell, NOAA National Data Buoy Center and National Center for Environmental Information, National Center for Environmental Prediction, University of Southern Mississippi, and the Gulf of Mexico Coastal Ocean Observing System. The partnership leverages complementary strengths of each collaborator to build a comprehensive and sustainable monitoring and data program to expand observing capacity and protect offshore assets and Gulf communities from storms and hurricanes. The program combines in situ and autonomous platforms with remote sensing and numerical modeling. Here we focus on profiling gliders and the benefits of a public-private partnership model for expanding regional ocean observing capacity. Shallow and deep gliders measure ocean temperature to derive ocean heat content (OHC), along with salinity, dissolved oxygen, fluorescence, and CDOM, in the central and eastern Gulf shelf and offshore. Since 2012, gliders have collected 4500+ vertical profiles and surveyed 5000+ nautical miles. Adaptive sampling and mission coordination with NCEP modelers provides specific datasets to assimilate into EMC's coupled HYCOM-HWRF model and 'connect-the-dots' between well-established Eulerian metocean measurements by obtaining (and validating) data between fixed stations (e.g. platform and buoy ADCPs) . Adaptive sampling combined with remote sensing provides satellite-derived OHC validation and the ability to sample productive coastal waters advected offshore by the Loop Current. Tracking coastal waters with remote sensing provides another verification of estimate Loop Current and eddy boundaries, as well as quantifying productivity and analyzing water quality on the Gulf coast, shelf break and offshore. Incorporating gliders demonstrates their value as tools to better protect offshore oil and gas assets

  7. Storms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kai, Keizo; Melrose, D.B.; Suzuki, S.

    1985-01-01

    At metre and decametre wavelengths long-lasting solar radio emission, consisting of thousands of short-lived spikes superimposed on a slowly varying continuum, is observed. This type of storm emission may continue for periods ranging from a few hours to several days; the long duration is one of the characteristics which distinguish storms from other types of solar radio emission. These events are called storms or noise storms by analogy with geomagnetic storms. (author)

  8. Weathering the storm: challenges to nurses providing care to nursing home residents during hurricanes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hyer, Kathryn; Brown, Lisa M; Christensen, Janelle J; Thomas, Kali S

    2009-11-01

    This article documents the experience of 291 Florida nursing homes during the 2004 hurricane season. Using quantitative and qualitative methods, the authors described and compared the challenges nurses encountered when evacuating residents with their experiences assisting residents of facilities that sheltered in place. The primary concerns for evacuating facilities were accessing appropriate evacuation sites for residents and having ambulance transportation contracts honored. The main issue for facilities that sheltered in place was the length of time it took for power to be restored. Barriers to maintaining resident health during disasters for those who evacuated or sheltered in place are identified.

  9. Storm and hurricane disturbances on phosphorus storage within an in-stream wetland

    Science.gov (United States)

    The ability of wetlands to hold phosphorus (P) makes them and important landscape feature that help to protect water quality. However, their ability to retain P can be affected through hydrologic disturbances caused by both storms and flooding. An animal waste impacted in-stream wetland (ISW) locate...

  10. Pearl Harbor and South Coast of OAHU Hurricane Haven Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1984-09-01

    LASNIS. (TERN Is. NEKE 1 /AA*s**OAH/ DISAPPEARING IS. /NIHOA MOLOKAI NIIHAU MU 20ON LANAI-’ ’ KAHOOLAWE 0 0 lo HAWAII (0 U) Figure 1...of Niihau and Kauai near 240300Z. Its closest point of approach to Oahu occurred when it was northwest of the island at approximatly 240430Z and...Section 4.2, the most exten- sively documented occurrence of storm surge in the Hawaiian Islands came with Hurricane Iwa. Kauai and Niihau bore the

  11. Modeling hurricane effects on mangrove ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doyle, Thomas W.

    1997-01-01

    Mangrove ecosystems are at their most northern limit along the coastline of Florida and in isolated areas of the gulf coast in Louisiana and Texas. Mangroves are marine-based forests that have adapted to colonize and persist in salty intertidal waters. Three species of mangrove trees are common to the United States, black mangrove (Avicennia germinans), white mangrove (Laguncularia racemosa), and red mangrove (Rhizophora mangle). Mangroves are highly productive ecosystems and provide valuable habitat for fisheries and shorebirds. They are susceptible to lightning and hurricane disturbance, both of which occur frequently in south Florida. Climate change studies predict that, while these storms may not become more frequent, they may become more intense with warming sea temperatures. Sea-level rise alone has the potential for increasing the severity of storm surge, particularly in areas where coastal habitats and barrier shorelines are rapidly deteriorating. Given this possibility, U.S. Geological Survey researchers modeled the impact of hurricanes on south Florida mangrove communities.

  12. Hurricane Harvey Report: A fact-finding effort in the direct aftermath of Hurricane Harvey in the Greater Houston Region

    OpenAIRE

    Sebastian, A.G.; Lendering, K.T.; Kothuis, B.L.M.; Brand, A.D.; Jonkman, S.N.; van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M.; Kolen, B.; Comes, M.; Lhermitte, S.L.M.; Meesters, K.J.M.G.; van de Walle, B.A.; Ebrahimi Fard, A.; Cunningham, S.; Khakzad Rostami, N.; Nespeca, V.

    2017-01-01

    On August 25, 2017, Hurricane Harvey made landfall near Rockport, Texas as a Category 4 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of approximately 200 km/hour. Harvey caused severe damages in coastal Texas due to extreme winds and storm surge, but will go down in history for record-setting rainfall totals and flood-related damages. Across large portions of southeast Texas, rainfall totals during the six-day period between August 25 and 31, 2017 were amongst the highest ever recorded, causing flo...

  13. Numerical modeling of the effects of Hurricane Sandy and potential future hurricanes on spatial patterns of salt marsh morphology in Jamaica Bay, New York City

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Hongqing; Chen, Qin; Hu, Kelin; Snedden, Gregg A.; Hartig, Ellen K.; Couvillion, Brady R.; Johnson, Cody L.; Orton, Philip M.

    2017-03-29

    The salt marshes of Jamaica Bay, managed by the New York City Department of Parks & Recreation and the Gateway National Recreation Area of the National Park Service, serve as a recreational outlet for New York City residents, mitigate flooding, and provide habitat for critical wildlife species. Hurricanes and extra-tropical storms have been recognized as one of the critical drivers of coastal wetland morphology due to their effects on hydrodynamics and sediment transport, deposition, and erosion processes. However, the magnitude and mechanisms of hurricane effects on sediment dynamics and associated coastal wetland morphology in the northeastern United States are poorly understood. In this study, the depth-averaged version of the Delft3D modeling suite, integrated with field measurements, was utilized to examine the effects of Hurricane Sandy and future potential hurricanes on salt marsh morphology in Jamaica Bay, New York City. Hurricane Sandy-induced wind, waves, storm surge, water circulation, sediment transport, deposition, and erosion were simulated by using the modeling system in which vegetation effects on flow resistance, surge reduction, wave attenuation, and sedimentation were also incorporated. Observed marsh elevation change and accretion from a rod surface elevation table and feldspar marker horizons and cesium-137- and lead-210-derived long-term accretion rates were used to calibrate and validate the wind-waves-surge-sediment transport-morphology coupled model.The model results (storm surge, waves, and marsh deposition and erosion) agreed well with field measurements. The validated modeling system was then used to detect salt marsh morphological change due to Hurricane Sandy across the entire Jamaica Bay over the short-term (for example, 4 days and 1 year) and long-term (for example, 5 and 10 years). Because Hurricanes Sandy (2012) and Irene (2011) were two large and destructive tropical cyclones which hit the northeast coast, the validated coupled

  14. The effects of hurricanes on birds, with special reference to Caribbean islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiley, J.W.; Wunderle, J.M.

    1993-01-01

    Cyclonic storms, variously called typhoons, cyclones, or hurricanes (henceforth, hurricanes), are common in many parts of the world, where their frequent occurrence can have both direct and indirect effects on bird populations. Direct effects of hurricanes include mortality from exposure to hurricane winds, rains, and storm surges, and geographic displacement of individuals by storm winds. Indirect effects become apparent in the storm's aftermath and include loss of food supplies or foraging substrates; loss of nests and nest or roost sites; increased vulnerability to predation; microclimate changes; and increased conflict with humans. The short-term response of bird populations to hurricane damage, before changes in plant succession, includes shifts in diet, foraging sites or habitats, and reproductive changes. Bird populations may show long-term responses to changes in plant succession as second-growth vegetation increases in storm-damaged old-growth forests. The greatest stress of a hurricane to most upland terrestrial bird populations occurs after its passage rather than during its impact. The most important effect of a hurricane is the destruction of vegetation, which secondarily affects wildlife in the storm's aftermath. The most vulnerable terrestrial wildlife populations have a diet of nectar, fruit, or seeds; nest, roost, or forage on large old trees; require a closed forest canopy; have special microclimate requirements and/or live in a habitat in which vegetation has a slow recovery rate. Small populations with these traits are at greatest risk to hurricane-induced extinction, particularly if they exist in small isolated habitat fragments. Recovery of avian populations from hurricane effects is partially dependent on the extent and degree of vegetation damage as well as its rate of recovery. Also, the reproductive rate of the remnant local population and recruitment from undisturbed habitat patches influence the rate at which wildlife populations recover

  15. Application of SWAN+ADCIRC to tide-surge and wave simulation in Gulf of Maine during Patriot’s Day storm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dong-mei Xie

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The southern coast of the Gulf of Maine in the United States is prone to flooding caused by nor’easters. A state-of-the-art fully-coupled model, the Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN model with unstructured grids and the ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC model, was used to study the hydrodynamic response in the Gulf of Maine during the Patriot’s Day storm of 2007, a notable example of nor’easters in this area. The model predictions agree well with the observed tide-surges and waves during this storm event. Waves and circulation in the Gulf of Maine were analyzed. The Georges Bank plays an important role in dissipating wave energy through the bottom friction when waves propagate over the bank from offshore to the inner gulf due to its shallow bathymetry. Wave energy dissipation results in decreasing significant wave height (SWH in the cross-bank direction and wave radiation stress gradient, which in turn induces changes in currents. While the tidal currents are dominant over the Georges Bank and in the Bay of Fundy, the residual currents generated by the meteorological forcing and waves are significant over the Georges Bank and in the coastal area and can reach 0.3 m/s and 0.2 m/s, respectively. In the vicinity of the coast, the longshore current generated by the surface wind stress and wave radiation stress acting parallel to the coastline is inversely proportional to the water depth and will eventually be limited by the bottom friction. The storm surge level reaches 0.8 m along the western periphery of the Gulf of Maine while the wave set-up due to radiation stress variation reaches 0.2 m. Therefore, it is significant to coastal flooding.

  16. Projected sea level rise and changes in extreme storm surge and wave events during the 21st century in the region of Singapore

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cannaby, Heather; Palmer, Matthew D.; Howard, Tom; Bricheno, Lucy; Calvert, Daley; Krijnen, Justin; Wood, Richard; Tinker, Jonathan; Bunney, Chris; Harle, James; Saulter, Andrew; O'Neill, Clare; Bellingham, Clare; Lowe, Jason

    2016-05-01

    Singapore is an island state with considerable population, industries, commerce and transport located in coastal areas at elevations less than 2 m making it vulnerable to sea level rise. Mitigation against future inundation events requires a quantitative assessment of risk. To address this need, regional projections of changes in (i) long-term mean sea level and (ii) the frequency of extreme storm surge and wave events have been combined to explore potential changes to coastal flood risk over the 21st century. Local changes in time-mean sea level were evaluated using the process-based climate model data and methods presented in the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC AR5). Regional surge and wave solutions extending from 1980 to 2100 were generated using ˜ 12 km resolution surge (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean - NEMO) and wave (WaveWatchIII) models. Ocean simulations were forced by output from a selection of four downscaled ( ˜ 12 km resolution) atmospheric models, forced at the lateral boundaries by global climate model simulations generated for the IPCC AR5. Long-term trends in skew surge and significant wave height were then assessed using a generalised extreme value model, fit to the largest modelled events each year. An additional atmospheric solution downscaled from the ERA-Interim global reanalysis was used to force historical ocean model simulations extending from 1980 to 2010, enabling a quantitative assessment of model skill. Simulated historical sea-surface height and significant wave height time series were compared to tide gauge data and satellite altimetry data, respectively. Central estimates of the long-term mean sea level rise at Singapore by 2100 were projected to be 0.52 m (0.74 m) under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)4.5 (8.5) scenarios. Trends in surge and significant wave height 2-year return levels were found to be statistically insignificant and/or physically

  17. Hurricane Ingrid and Tropical Storm Hanna's effects on the salinity of the coastal aquifer, Quintana Roo, Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kovacs, Shawn E.; Reinhardt, Eduard G.; Stastna, Marek; Coutino, Aaron; Werner, Christopher; Collins, Shawn V.; Devos, Fred; Le Maillot, Christophe

    2017-08-01

    There is a lack of information on aquifer dynamics in anchialine systems, especially in the Yucatán Peninsula of Mexico. Most of our knowledge is based on ;spot; measurements of the aquifer with no long-term temporal monitoring. In this study spanning four years (2012-2016), sensors (water depth and conductivity (salinity)) were deployed and positioned (-9 and -10 m) in the meteoric Water Mass (WM) close to the transition with the marine WM (halocline) in 2 monitoring sites within the Yax Chen cave system to investigate precipitation effects on the salinity of the coastal aquifer. The results show variation in salinity (95 mm) such as Hurricane Ingrid (2013) and Tropical Storm Hanna (2014) shows meteoric water mass salinity rapidly increasing (approx. 6.39 to >8.6 ppt), but these perturbations have a shorter duration (weeks and days). Wavelet analysis of the salinity record indicates seasonal mixing effects in agreement with the wet and dry periods, but also seasonal effects of tidal mixing (meteoric and marine water masses) occurring on shorter time scales (diurnal and semi-diurnal). These results demonstrate that the salinity of the freshwater lens is influenced by precipitation and turbulent mixing with the marine WM. The salinity response is scaled with precipitation; larger more intense rainfall events (>95 mm) create a larger response in terms of the magnitude and duration of the salinity perturbation (>1 ppt). The balance of precipitation and its intensity controls the temporal and spatial patterning of meteoric WM salinity.

  18. Declining Radial Growth Response of Coastal Forests to Hurricanes and Nor'easters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandes, Arnold; Rollinson, Christine R.; Kearney, William S.; Dietze, Michael C.; Fagherazzi, Sergio

    2018-03-01

    The Mid-Atlantic coastal forests in Virginia are stressed by episodic disturbance from hurricanes and nor'easters. Using annual tree ring data, we adopt a dendroclimatic and statistical modeling approach to understand the response and resilience of a coastal pine forest to extreme storm events, over the past few decades. Results indicate that radial growth of trees in the study area is influenced by age, regional climate trends, and individual tree effects but dominated periodically by growth disturbance due to storms. We evaluated seven local extreme storm events to understand the effect of nor'easters and hurricanes on radial growth. A general decline in radial growth was observed in the year of the extreme storm and 3 years following it, after which the radial growth started recovering. The decline in radial growth showed a statistically significant correlation with the magnitude of the extreme storm (storm surge height and wind speed). This study contributes to understanding declining tree growth response and resilience of coastal forests to past disturbances. Given the potential increase in hurricanes and storm surge severity in the region, this can help predict vegetation response patterns to similar disturbances in the future.

  19. A Coordinated USGS Science Response to Hurricane Sandy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, S.; Buxton, H. T.; Andersen, M.; Dean, T.; Focazio, M. J.; Haines, J.; Hainly, R. A.

    2013-12-01

    In late October 2012, Hurricane Sandy came ashore during a spring high tide on the New Jersey coastline, delivering hurricane-force winds, storm tides exceeding 19 feet, driving rain, and plummeting temperatures. Hurricane Sandy resulted in 72 direct fatalities in the mid-Atlantic and northeastern United States, and widespread and substantial physical, environmental, ecological, social, and economic impacts estimated at near $50 billion. Before the landfall of Hurricane Sandy, the USGS provided forecasts of potential coastal change; collected oblique aerial photography of pre-storm coastal morphology; deployed storm-surge sensors, rapid-deployment streamgages, wave sensors, and barometric pressure sensors; conducted Light Detection and Ranging (lidar) aerial topographic surveys of coastal areas; and issued a landslide alert for landslide prone areas. During the storm, Tidal Telemetry Networks provided real-time water-level information along the coast. Long-term networks and rapid-deployment real-time streamgages and water-quality monitors tracked river levels and changes in water quality. Immediately after the storm, the USGS serviced real-time instrumentation, retrieved data from over 140 storm-surge sensors, and collected other essential environmental data, including more than 830 high-water marks mapping the extent and elevation of the storm surge. Post-storm lidar surveys documented storm impacts to coastal barriers informing response and recovery and providing a new baseline to assess vulnerability of the reconfigured coast. The USGS Hazard Data Distribution System served storm-related information from many agencies on the Internet on a daily basis. Immediately following Hurricane Sandy the USGS developed a science plan, 'Meeting the Science Needs of the Nation in the Wake of Hurricane Sandy-A U.S. Geological Survey Science Plan for Support of Restoration and Recovery'. The plan will ensure continuing coordination of internal USGS activities as well as

  20. A numerical model investigation of the impacts of Hurricane Sandy on water level variability in Great South Bay, New York

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennett, Vanessa C. C.; Mulligan, Ryan P.; Hapke, Cheryl J.

    2018-01-01

    Hurricane Sandy was a large and intense storm with high winds that caused total water levels from combined tides and storm surge to reach 4.0 m in the Atlantic Ocean and 2.5 m in Great South Bay (GSB), a back-barrier bay between Fire Island and Long Island, New York. In this study the impact of the hurricane winds and waves are examined in order to understand the flow of ocean water into the back-barrier bay and water level variations within the bay. To accomplish this goal, a high resolution hurricane wind field is used to drive the coupled Delft3D-SWAN hydrodynamic and wave models over a series of grids with the finest resolution in GSB. The processes that control water levels in the back-barrier bay are investigated by comparing the results of four cases that include: (i) tides only; (ii) tides, winds and waves with no overwash over Fire Island allowed; (iii) tides, winds, waves and limited overwash at the east end of the island; (iv) tides, winds, waves and extensive overwash along the island. The results indicate that strong local wind-driven storm surge along the bay axis had the largest influence on the total water level fluctuations during the hurricane. However, the simulations allowing for overwash have higher correlation with water level observations in GSB and suggest that island overwash provided a significant contribution of ocean water to eastern GSB during the storm. The computations indicate that overwash of 7500–10,000 m3s−1 was approximately the same as the inflow from the ocean through the major existing inlet. Overall, the model results indicate the complex variability in total water levels driven by tides, ocean storm surge, surge from local winds, and overwash that had a significant impact on the circulation in Great South Bay during Hurricane Sandy.

  1. A numerical model investigation of the impacts of Hurricane Sandy on water level variability in Great South Bay, New York

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennett, Vanessa C. C.; Mulligan, Ryan P.; Hapke, Cheryl J.

    2018-06-01

    Hurricane Sandy was a large and intense storm with high winds that caused total water levels from combined tides and storm surge to reach 4.0 m in the Atlantic Ocean and 2.5 m in Great South Bay (GSB), a back-barrier bay between Fire Island and Long Island, New York. In this study the impact of the hurricane winds and waves are examined in order to understand the flow of ocean water into the back-barrier bay and water level variations within the bay. To accomplish this goal, a high resolution hurricane wind field is used to drive the coupled Delft3D-SWAN hydrodynamic and wave models over a series of grids with the finest resolution in GSB. The processes that control water levels in the back-barrier bay are investigated by comparing the results of four cases that include: (i) tides only; (ii) tides, winds and waves with no overwash over Fire Island allowed; (iii) tides, winds, waves and limited overwash at the east end of the island; (iv) tides, winds, waves and extensive overwash along the island. The results indicate that strong local wind-driven storm surge along the bay axis had the largest influence on the total water level fluctuations during the hurricane. However, the simulations allowing for overwash have higher correlation with water level observations in GSB and suggest that island overwash provided a significant contribution of ocean water to eastern GSB during the storm. The computations indicate that overwash of 7500-10,000 m3s-1 was approximately the same as the inflow from the ocean through the major existing inlet. Overall, the model results indicate the complex variability in total water levels driven by tides, ocean storm surge, surge from local winds, and overwash that had a significant impact on the circulation in Great South Bay during Hurricane Sandy.

  2. Trapped in Place? Segmented Resilience to Hurricanes in the Gulf Coast, 1970–2005

    Science.gov (United States)

    Logan, John R.; Issar, Sukriti; Xu, Zengwang

    2016-01-01

    Hurricanes pose a continuing hazard to populations in coastal regions. This study estimates the impact of hurricanes on population change in the years 1970–2005 in the U.S. Gulf Coast region. Geophysical models are used to construct a unique data set that simulates the spatial extent and intensity of wind damage and storm surge from the 32 hurricanes that struck the region in this period. Multivariate spatial time-series models are used to estimate the impacts of hurricanes on population change. Population growth is found to be reduced significantly for up to three successive years after counties experience wind damage, particularly at higher levels of damage. Storm surge is associated with reduced population growth in the year after the hurricane. Model extensions show that change in the white and young adult population is more immediately and strongly affected than is change for blacks and elderly residents. Negative effects on population are stronger in counties with lower poverty rates. The differentiated impact of hurricanes on different population groups is interpreted as segmented withdrawal—a form of segmented resilience in which advantaged population groups are more likely to move out of or avoid moving into harm’s way while socially vulnerable groups have fewer choices. PMID:27531504

  3. ASTER and USGS EROS emergency imaging for hurricane disasters: Chapter 4D in Science and the storms-the USGS response to the hurricanes of 2005

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duda, Kenneth A.; Abrams, Michael

    2007-01-01

    Satellite images have been extremely useful in a variety of emergency response activities, including hurricane disasters. This article discusses the collaborative efforts of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the Joint United States-Japan Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) Science Team, and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) in responding to crisis situations by tasking the ASTER instrument and rapidly providing information to initial responders. Insight is provided on the characteristics of the ASTER systems, and specific details are presented regarding Hurricane Katrina support.

  4. Hurricane Ike Deposits on the Bolivar Peninsula, Galveston Bay, Texas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Cynthia A.; Wilkinson, M. J.; Eppler, Dean

    2011-01-01

    In September 2008, Hurricane Ike made landfall on Galveston Bay, close to the NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC). The storm flooded much of the area with a storm surge ranging from 11 -20 feet. The Bolivar peninsula, the southeastern coast of Galveston Bay, experienced the brunt of the surge. Several agencies collected excellent imagery baselines before the storm and complementary data a few days afterward that helped define the impacts of the storm. In April of 2011, a team of scientists and astronauts from JSC conducted field mapping exercises along the Bolivar Peninsula, the section of the Galveston Bay coast most impacted by the storm. Astronauts routinely observe and document coastal changes from orbit aboard the International Space Station. As part of their basic Earth Science training, scientists at the Johnson Space Center take astronauts out for field mapping exercises so that they can better recognize and understand features and processes that they will later observe from the International Space Station. Using pre -storm baseline images of the Bolivar Peninsula near Rollover Pass and Gilchrist (NOAA/Google Earth Imagery and USGS aerial imagery and lidar data), the astronauts mapped current coastline positions at defined locations, and related their findings to specific coastal characteristics, including channel, jetties, and other developments. In addition to mapping, we dug trenches along both the Gulf of Mexico coast as well as the Galveston Bay coast of the Bolivar peninsula to determine the depth of the scouring from the storm on the Gulf side, and the amount of deposition of the storm surge deposits on the Bay side of the peninsula. The storm signature was easy to identify by sharp sediment transitions and, in the case of storm deposits, a layer of storm debris (roof shingles, PVC pipes, etc) and black, organic rich layers containing buried sea grasses in areas that were marshes before the storm. The amount of deposition was generally about 20 -25 cm

  5. Ocean surface waves in Hurricane Ike (2008) and Superstorm Sandy (2012): Coupled model predictions and observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Shuyi S.; Curcic, Milan

    2016-07-01

    Forecasting hurricane impacts of extreme winds and flooding requires accurate prediction of hurricane structure and storm-induced ocean surface waves days in advance. The waves are complex, especially near landfall when the hurricane winds and water depth varies significantly and the surface waves refract, shoal and dissipate. In this study, we examine the spatial structure, magnitude, and directional spectrum of hurricane-induced ocean waves using a high resolution, fully coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean model and observations. The coupled model predictions of ocean surface waves in Hurricane Ike (2008) over the Gulf of Mexico and Superstorm Sandy (2012) in the northeastern Atlantic and coastal region are evaluated with the NDBC buoy and satellite altimeter observations. Although there are characteristics that are general to ocean waves in both hurricanes as documented in previous studies, wave fields in Ike and Sandy possess unique properties due mostly to the distinct wind fields and coastal bathymetry in the two storms. Several processes are found to significantly modulate hurricane surface waves near landfall. First, the phase speed and group velocities decrease as the waves become shorter and steeper in shallow water, effectively increasing surface roughness and wind stress. Second, the bottom-induced refraction acts to turn the waves toward the coast, increasing the misalignment between the wind and waves. Third, as the hurricane translates over land, the left side of the storm center is characterized by offshore winds over very short fetch, which opposes incoming swell. Landfalling hurricanes produce broader wave spectra overall than that of the open ocean. The front-left quadrant is most complex, where the combination of windsea, swell propagating against the wind, increasing wind-wave stress, and interaction with the coastal topography requires a fully coupled model to meet these challenges in hurricane wave and surge prediction.

  6. Numerical simulation of a low-lying barrier island's morphological response to Hurricane Katrina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindemer, C.A.; Plant, N.G.; Puleo, J.A.; Thompson, D.M.; Wamsley, T.V.

    2010-01-01

    Tropical cyclones that enter or form in the Gulf of Mexico generate storm surge and large waves that impact low-lying coastlines along the Gulf Coast. The Chandeleur Islands, located 161. km east of New Orleans, Louisiana, have endured numerous hurricanes that have passed nearby. Hurricane Katrina (landfall near Waveland MS, 29 Aug 2005) caused dramatic changes to the island elevation and shape. In this paper the predictability of hurricane-induced barrier island erosion and accretion is evaluated using a coupled hydrodynamic and morphodynamic model known as XBeach. Pre- and post-storm island topography was surveyed with an airborne lidar system. Numerical simulations utilized realistic surge and wave conditions determined from larger-scale hydrodynamic models. Simulations included model sensitivity tests with varying grid size and temporal resolutions. Model-predicted bathymetry/topography and post-storm survey data both showed similar patterns of island erosion, such as increased dissection by channels. However, the model under predicted the magnitude of erosion. Potential causes for under prediction include (1) errors in the initial conditions (the initial bathymetry/topography was measured three years prior to Katrina), (2) errors in the forcing conditions (a result of our omission of storms prior to Katrina and/or errors in Katrina storm conditions), and/or (3) physical processes that were omitted from the model (e.g., inclusion of sediment variations and bio-physical processes). ?? 2010.

  7. Episodic Eolian Sand Deposition in the Past 4000 Years in Cape COD National Seashore, Massachusetts, USA in Response to Possible Hurricane/storm and Anthropogenic Disturbances

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forman, Steven

    2015-02-01

    The eolian sand depositional record for a dune field within Cape Cod National Seashore, Massachusetts is posit as a sensitive indicator of environmental disturbances in the late Holocene from a combination of factors such as hurricane/storm and forest fire occurrence, and anthropogenic activity. Stratigraphic and sedimentologic observations, particularly the burial of spodosol-like soils, and associated 14C and OSL ages that are concordant indicate at least six eolian depositional events at ca. 3750, 2500, 1800, 960, 430 and Atlantic Ocean at ca. 2.0 to 1.6, and 1.0 ka and also a wetter coastal climate, which suppressed the occurrence of forest fire. Thus, local droughts are not associated with periods of dune movement in this mesic environment. Latest eolian activity on outer Cape Cod commenced in the past 300 to 500 years and may reflect multiple factors including broad-scale landscape disturbance with European colonization, an increased incidence of forest fires and heightened storminess. Eolian systems of Cape Cod appear to be sensitive to landscape disturbance and prior to European settlement may reflect predominantly hurricane/storm disturbance, despite generally mesic conditions in past 4 ka.

  8. EPISODIC EOLIAN SAND DEPOSITION IN THE PAST 4000 YEARS IN CAPE COD NATIONAL SEASHORE, MASSACHUSETTS, USA IN RESPONSE TO POSSIBLE HURRICANE/STORM AND ANTHROPOGENIC DISTURBANCES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steven L. Forman

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available The eolian sand depositional record for a dune field within Cape Cod National Seashore, Massachusetts is posit as a sensitive indicator of environmental disturbances in the late Holocene from a combination of factors such as hurricane/storm and forest fire occurrence, and anthropogenic activity. Stratigraphic and sedimentologic observations, particularly the burial of spodosol-like soils, and associated 14C and OSL ages that are concordant indicate at least six eolian depositional events at ca. 3750, 2500, 1800, 960, 430 and <250 years ago. The two oldest events are documented at just one locality and thus, the pervasiveness of this eolian activity is unknown. However, the four younger events are identified in three or more sites and show evidence for dune migration and sand sheet accretion. The timing of eolian deposition, particularly the initiation age, corresponds to documented periods of increased storminess/hurricane activity in the North Atlantic Ocean at ca. 2.0 to 1.6, and 1.0 ka and also a wetter coastal climate, which suppressed the occurrence of forest fire. Thus, local droughts are not associated with periods of dune movement in this mesic environment. Latest eolian activity on outer Cape Cod commenced in the past 300 to 500 years and may reflect multiple factors including broad-scale landscape disturbance with European colonization, an increased incidence of forest fires and heightened storminess. Eolian systems of Cape Cod appear to be sensitive to landscape disturbance and prior to European settlement may reflect predominantly hurricane/storm disturbance, despite generally mesic conditions in past 4 ka.

  9. Vulnerability of National Park Service beaches to inundation during a direct hurricane landfall: Fire Island National Seashore

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stockdon, Hilary F.; Thompson, David M.

    2007-01-01

    Waves and storm surge associated with strong tropical storms are part of the natural process of barrier-island evolution and can cause extensive morphologic changes in coastal parks, leading to reduced visitor accessibility and enjoyment. Even at Fire Island National Seashore, a barrier-island coastal park in New York where extratropical storms (northeasters) dominate storm activity, the beaches are vulnerable to the powerful, sand-moving forces of hurricanes. The vulnerability of park beaches to inundation, and associated extreme coastal change, during a direct hurricane landfall can be assessed by comparing the elevations of storm-induced mean-water levels (storm surge) to the elevations of the crest of the sand dune that defines the beach system. Maps detailing the inundation potential for Category 1-4 hurricanes can be used by park managers to determine the relative vulnerability of various barrier-island parks and to assess which areas of a particular park are more susceptible to inundation and extreme coastal changes.

  10. Hurricane-induced failure of low salinity wetlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howes, Nick C.; FitzGerald, Duncan M.; Hughes, Zoe J.; Georgiou, Ioannis Y.; Kulp, Mark A.; Miner, Michael D.; Smith, Jane M.; Barras, John A.

    2010-01-01

    During the 2005 hurricane season, the storm surge and wave field associated with Hurricanes Katrina and Rita eroded 527 km2 of wetlands within the Louisiana coastal plain. Low salinity wetlands were preferentially eroded, while higher salinity wetlands remained robust and largely unchanged. Here we highlight geotechnical differences between the soil profiles of high and low salinity regimes, which are controlled by vegetation and result in differential erosion. In low salinity wetlands, a weak zone (shear strength 500–1450 Pa) was observed ∼30 cm below the marsh surface, coinciding with the base of rooting. High salinity wetlands had no such zone (shear strengths > 4500 Pa) and contained deeper rooting. Storm waves during Hurricane Katrina produced shear stresses between 425–3600 Pa, sufficient to cause widespread erosion of the low salinity wetlands. Vegetation in low salinity marshes is subject to shallower rooting and is susceptible to erosion during large magnitude storms; these conditions may be exacerbated by low inorganic sediment content and high nutrient inputs. The dramatic difference in resiliency of fresh versus more saline marshes suggests that the introduction of freshwater to marshes as part of restoration efforts may therefore weaken existing wetlands rendering them vulnerable to hurricanes. PMID:20660777

  11. Hurricane Sandy science plan: coastal impact assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stronko, Jakob M.

    2013-01-01

    Hurricane Sandy devastated some of the most heavily populated eastern coastal areas of the Nation. With a storm surge peaking at more than 19 feet, the powerful landscape-altering destruction of Hurricane Sandy is a stark reminder of why the Nation must become more resilient to coastal hazards. In response to this natural disaster, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) received a total of $41.2 million in supplemental appropriations from the Department of the Interior (DOI) to support response, recovery, and rebuilding efforts. These funds support a science plan that will provide critical scientific information necessary to inform management decisions for recovery of coastal communities, and aid in preparation for future natural hazards. This science plan is designed to coordinate continuing USGS activities with stakeholders and other agencies to improve data collection and analysis that will guide recovery and restoration efforts. The science plan is split into five distinct themes: coastal topography and bathymetry, impacts to coastal beaches and barriers, impacts of storm surge, including disturbed estuarine and bay hydrology, impacts on environmental quality and persisting contaminant exposures, impacts to coastal ecosystems, habitats, and fish and wildlife. This fact sheet focuses assessing impacts to coastal beaches and barriers.

  12. Assessing Hurricane Katrina Vegetation Damage at Stennis Space Center using IKONOS Image Classification Techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spruce, Joseph P.; Ross, Kenton W.; Graham, William D.

    2007-01-01

    Hurricane Katrina hit southwestern Mississippi on August 29, 2005, at 9:45 a.m. CDT as a category 3 storm with surges up to approx. 9 m and sustained winds of approx. 120 mph. The hurricane's wind, rain, and flooding devastated several coastal towns, from New Orleans through Mobile. The storm also caused significant damage to infrastructure and vegetation of NASA's SSC (Stennis Space Center). Storm recovery at SSC involved not only repairs of critical infrastructure but also forest damage mitigation (via timber harvests and control burns to reduce fire risk). This presentation discusses an effort to use commercially available high spatial resolution multispectral IKONOS data for vegetation damage assessment, based on data collected over SSC on September 2, 2005.

  13. Impact of Hurricane Irma in the post-recovery of Matthew in South Carolina, the South Atlantic Bight (Western Atlantic)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, M. S.; Levine, N. S.; Jaume, S. C.; Hendricks, J. K.; Rubin, N. D.; Hernandez, J. L.

    2017-12-01

    The impacts on the Southeastern United States (SEUS, Western Atlantic) from Hurricane Irma in Sept 2017 were felt primarily on the active coastline with the third highest inland storm surge in Charleston and Savannah since the 19th Century. Coastal geometry, waves, and wind duration had a strong influence on the storm surge and coastal erosion impacts regionally. To the North and immediate South, impacts were much less. A full year after the 2016 hurricane season (Hurricane Matthew), the lack of regional recovery reduced protection against Irma. The most devastating impacts of Irma in the SAB occurred from 300 to 500 km away from the eye, on the opposite side of the Floridian peninsula. As Irma devastated the Caribbean, winds started to increases off the SAB on September 8 in the early morning, continuing for the next 3 days and blowing directly towards the SC and GA coasts. Tide gauges started to respond the night of September 8, while waves started arriving in the SEUS around Sept 6. Coastal erosion pre- and post-Irma has been calculated for Central SC using vertical and oblique aerial photos. Citizen Science initiatives through the Charleston Resilience Network have provided on-the-ground data during storms when transportation infrastructures were closed, and allow for ground-truth post-storm of surge and impacts. Said information was collected through Facebook, Google, and other social media. Pictures with timestamps and water heights were collected and are validating inundation flood maps generated for the Charleston SC region. The maps have 1-m horizontal and 7- to 15-cm vertical accuracy. Inundation surfaces were generated at MHHW up to a maximum surge in 6 inch increments. The flood extents of the modeled surge and the photographic evidence show a high correspondence. Storm surge measurements from RTK-GPS provide regional coverage of surge elevations from the coast, inland, and allow for testing of modeled results and model tuning. With Hurricane Irma

  14. Analysis of Hurricane Irene’s Wind Field Using the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecast (WRF-ARW Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alfred M. Klausmann

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Hurricane Irene caused widespread and significant impacts along the U.S. east coast during 27–29 August 2011. During this period, the storm moved across eastern North Carolina and then tracked northward crossing into Long Island and western New England. Impacts included severe flooding from the mid-Atlantic states into eastern New York and western New England, widespread wind damage and power outages across a large portion of southern and central New England, and a major storm surge along portions of the Long Island coast. The objective of this study was to conduct retrospective simulations using the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecast (WRF-ARW model in an effort to reconstruct the storm’s surface wind field during the period of 27–29 August 2011. The goal was to evaluate how to use the WRF modeling system as a tool for reconstructing the surface wind field from historical storm events to support storm surge studies. The results suggest that, with even modest data assimilation applied to these simulations, the model was able to resolve the detailed structure of the storm, the storm track, and the spatial surface wind field pattern very well. The WRF model shows real potential for being used as a tool to analyze historical storm events to support storm surge studies.

  15. Hurricane Sandy science plan: coastal topographic and bathymetric data to support hurricane impact assessment and response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stronko, Jakob M.

    2013-01-01

    Hurricane Sandy devastated some of the most heavily populated eastern coastal areas of the Nation. With a storm surge peaking at more than 19 feet, the powerful landscape-altering destruction of Hurricane Sandy is a stark reminder of why the Nation must become more resilient to coastal hazards. In response to this natural disaster, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) received a total of $41.2 million in supplemental appropriations from the Department of the Interior (DOI) to support response, recovery, and rebuilding efforts. These funds support a science plan that will provide critical scientific information necessary to inform management decisions for recovery of coastal communities, and aid in preparation for future natural hazards. This science plan is designed to coordinate continuing USGS activities with stakeholders and other agencies to improve data collection and analysis that will guide recovery and restoration efforts. The science plan is split into five distinct themes: • Coastal topography and bathymetry • Impacts to coastal beaches and barriers • Impacts of storm surge, including disturbed estuarine and bay hydrology • Impacts on environmental quality and persisting contaminant exposures • Impacts to coastal ecosystems, habitats, and fish and wildlife This fact sheet focuses on coastal topography and bathymetry. This fact sheet focuses on coastal topography and bathymetry.

  16. Assessing Hurricane Katrina Damage to the Mississippi Gulf Coast Using IKONOS Imagery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spruce, Joseph; McKellip, Rodney

    2006-01-01

    Hurricane Katrina hit southeastern Louisiana and the Mississippi Gulf Coast as a Category 3 hurricane with storm surges as high as 9 m. Katrina devastated several coastal towns by destroying or severely damaging hundreds of homes. Several Federal agencies are assessing storm impacts and assisting recovery using high-spatial-resolution remotely sensed data from satellite and airborne platforms. High-quality IKONOS satellite imagery was collected on September 2, 2005, over southwestern Mississippi. Pan-sharpened IKONOS multispectral data and ERDAS IMAGINE software were used to classify post-storm land cover for coastal Hancock and Harrison Counties. This classification included a storm debris category of interest to FEMA for disaster mitigation. The classification resulted from combining traditional unsupervised and supervised classification techniques. Higher spatial resolution aerial and handheld photography were used as reference data. Results suggest that traditional classification techniques and IKONOS data can map wood-dominated storm debris in open areas if relevant training areas are used to develop the unsupervised classification signatures. IKONOS data also enabled other hurricane damage assessment, such as flood-deposited mud on lawns and vegetation foliage loss from the storm. IKONOS data has also aided regional Katrina vegetation damage surveys from multidate Land Remote Sensing Satellite and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer data.

  17. Developing Local Scale, High Resolution, Data to Interface with Numerical Storm Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Witkop, R.; Becker, A.; Stempel, P.

    2017-12-01

    High resolution, physical storm models that can rapidly predict storm surge, inundation, rainfall, wind velocity and wave height at the intra-facility scale for any storm affecting Rhode Island have been developed by Researchers at the University of Rhode Island's (URI's) Graduate School of Oceanography (GSO) (Ginis et al., 2017). At the same time, URI's Marine Affairs Department has developed methods that inhere individual geographic points into GSO's models and enable the models to accurately incorporate local scale, high resolution data (Stempel et al., 2017). This combination allows URI's storm models to predict any storm's impacts on individual Rhode Island facilities in near real time. The research presented here determines how a coastal Rhode Island town's critical facility managers (FMs) perceive their assets as being vulnerable to quantifiable hurricane-related forces at the individual facility scale and explores methods to elicit this information from FMs in a format usable for incorporation into URI's storm models.

  18. Morphological responses of the Wax Lake Delta, Louisiana, to Hurricanes Rita

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fei Xing

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available This study examines the morphodynamic response of a deltaic system to extreme weather events. The Wax Lake Delta (WLD in Louisiana, USA, is used to illustrate the impact of extreme events (hurricanes on a river-dominated deltaic system. Simulations using the open source Delft3D model reveal that Hurricane Rita, which made landfall 120 km to the west of WLD as a Category 3 storm in 2005, caused erosion on the right side and deposition on the left side of the hurricane eye track on the continental shelf line (water depth 10 m to 50 m. Erosion over a wide area occurred both on the continental shelf line and in coastal areas when the hurricane moved onshore, while deposition occurred along the Gulf coastline (water depth < 5 m when storm surge water moved back offshore. The numerical model estimated that Hurricane Rita’s storm surge reached 2.5 m, with maximum currents of 2.0 m s–1, and wave heights of 1.4 m on the WLD. The northwestern-directed flow and waves induced shear stresses, caused erosion on the eastern banks of the deltaic islands and deposition in channels located west of these islands. In total, Hurricane Rita eroded more than 500,000 m3 of sediments on the WLD area. Including waves in the analysis resulted in doubling the amount of erosion in the study area, comparing to the wave-excluding scenario. The exclusion of fluvial input caused minor changes in deltaic morphology during the event. Vegetation cover was represented as rigid rods in the model which add extra source terms for drag and turbulence to influence the momentum and turbulence equations. Vegetation slowed down the floodwater propagation and decreased flow velocity on the islands, leading to a 47% reduction in the total amount of erosion. Morphodynamic impact of the hurricane track relative to the delta was explored. Simulations indicate that the original track of Hurricane Rita (landfall 120 km west of the WLD produced twice as much erosion and deposition at the delta

  19. Potential of Future Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD) Ocean Surface Wind Observations for Determining Tropical Storm Vortex Intensity and Structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atlas, Robert; Bailey, M. C.; Black, Peter; James, Mark; Johnson, James; Jones, Linwood; Miller, Timothy; Ruf, Christopher; Uhlhorn, Eric

    2008-01-01

    The Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD) is an innovative technology development, which offers the potential of new and unique remotely sensed observations of both extreme oceanic wind events and strong precipitation from either UAS or satellite platforms. It is based on the airborne Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR), which is a proven aircraft remote sensing technique for observing tropical cyclone ocean surface wind speeds and rain rates, including those of major hurricane intensity. The proposed HIRAD instrument advances beyond the current nadir viewing SFMR to an equivalent wide-swath SFMR imager using passive microwave synthetic thinned aperture radiometer technology. This sensor will operate over 4-7 GHz (C-band frequencies) where the required tropical cyclone remote sensing physics has been validated by both SFMR and WindSat radiometers. HIRAD incorporates a unique, technologically advanced array antenna and several other technologies successfully demonstrated by the NASA's Instrument Incubator Program. A brassboard version of the instrument is complete and has been successfully tested in an anechoic chamber, and development of the aircraft instrument is well underway. HIRAD will be a compact, lightweight, low-power instrument with no moving parts that will produce wide-swath imagery of ocean vector winds and rain during hurricane conditions when existing microwave sensors (radiometers or scatterometers) are hindered. Preliminary studies show that HIRAD will have a significant positive impact on analyses as either a new aircraft or satellite sensor.

  20. Disaster preparedness of dialysis patients for Hurricanes Gustav and Ike 2008.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kleinpeter, Myra A

    2009-01-01

    Hurricanes Katrina and Rita resulted in massive devastation of the Gulf Coast at Mississippi, Louisiana, and Texas during 2005. Because of those disasters, dialysis providers, nephrologists, and dialysis patients used disaster planning activities to work to mitigate the morbidity and mortality associated with the 2005 hurricane season for future events affecting dialysis patients. As Hurricane Gustav approached, anniversary events for Hurricane Katrina were postponed because of evacuation orders for nearly the entire Louisiana Gulf Coast. As part of the hurricane preparation, dialysis units reviewed the disaster plans of patients, and patients made preparation for evacuation. Upon evacuation, many patients returned to the dialysis units that had provided services during their exile from Hurricane Katrina; other patients went to other locations as part of their evacuation plan. Patients uniformly reported positive experiences with dialysis providers in their temporary evacuation communities, provided that those communities did not experience the effects of Hurricane Gustav. With the exception of evacuees to Baton Rouge, patients continued to receive their treatments uninterrupted. Because of extensive damage in the Baton Rouge area, resulting in widespread power losses and delayed restoration of power to hospitals and other health care facilities, some patients missed one treatment. However, as a result of compliance with disaster fluid and dietary recommendations, no adverse outcomes occurred. In most instances, patients were able to return to their home dialysis unit or a nearby unit to continue dialysis treatments within 4 - 5 days of Hurricane Gustav. Hurricane Ike struck the Texas Gulf Coast near Galveston, resulting in devastation of that area similar to the devastation seen in New Orleans after Katrina. The storm surge along the Louisiana Gulf Coast resulted in flooding that temporarily closed coastal dialysis units. Patients were prepared and experienced

  1. Petroleum and hazardous material releases from industrial facilities associated with Hurricane Katrina.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santella, Nicholas; Steinberg, Laura J; Sengul, Hatice

    2010-04-01

    Hurricane Katrina struck an area dense with industry, causing numerous releases of petroleum and hazardous materials. This study integrates information from a number of sources to describe the frequency, causes, and effects of these releases in order to inform analysis of risk from future hurricanes. Over 200 onshore releases of hazardous chemicals, petroleum, or natural gas were reported. Storm surge was responsible for the majority of petroleum releases and failure of storage tanks was the most common mechanism of release. Of the smaller number of hazardous chemical releases reported, many were associated with flaring from plant startup, shutdown, or process upset. In areas impacted by storm surge, 10% of the facilities within the Risk Management Plan (RMP) and Toxic Release Inventory (TRI) databases and 28% of SIC 1311 facilities experienced accidental releases. In areas subject only to hurricane strength winds, a lower fraction (1% of RMP and TRI and 10% of SIC 1311 facilities) experienced a release while 1% of all facility types reported a release in areas that experienced tropical storm strength winds. Of industrial facilities surveyed, more experienced indirect disruptions such as displacement of workers, loss of electricity and communication systems, and difficulty acquiring supplies and contractors for operations or reconstruction (55%), than experienced releases. To reduce the risk of hazardous material releases and speed the return to normal operations under these difficult conditions, greater attention should be devoted to risk-based facility design and improved prevention and response planning.

  2. Extreme storms, sea level rise, and coastal change: implications for infrastructure reliability in the Gulf of Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anarde, K.; Kameshwar, S.; Irza, N.; Lorenzo-Trueba, J.; Nittrouer, J. A.; Padgett, J.; Bedient, P. B.

    2016-12-01

    Predicting coastal infrastructure reliability during hurricane events is important for risk-based design and disaster planning, such as delineating viable emergency response routes. Previous research has focused on either infrastructure vulnerability to coastal flooding or the impact of changing sea level and landforms on surge dynamics. Here we investigate the combined impact of sea level, morphology, and coastal flooding on the reliability of highway bridges - the only access points between barrier islands and mainland communities - during future extreme storms. We forward model coastal flooding for static projections of geomorphic change using ADCIRC+SWAN. First-order parameters that are adjusted include sea level and elevation. These are varied for each storm simulation to evaluate relative impact on the reliability of bridges surrounding Freeport, TX. Simulated storms include both synthetic and historical events, which are classified by intensity using the storm's integrated kinetic energy, a metric for surge generation potential. Reliability is estimated through probability of failure - given wave and surge loads - and time inundated. Findings include that: 1) bridge reliability scales inversely with surge height, and 2) sea level rise reduces bridge reliability due to a monotonic increase in surge height. The impact of a shifting landscape on bridge reliability is more complex: barrier island rollback can increase or decrease inundation times for storms of different intensity due to changes in wind-setup and back-barrier bay interactions. Initial storm surge readily inundates the coastal landscape during large intensity storms, however the draining of inland bays following storm passage is significantly impeded by the barrier. From a coastal engineering standpoint, we determine that to protect critical infrastructure, efforts now implemented that nourish low-lying barriers may be enhanced by also armoring back-bay coastlines and elevating bridge approach

  3. Eye of the storm: analysis of shelter treatment records of evacuees to Acadiana from Hurricanes Katrina and Rita.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caillouet, L Philip; Paul, P Joseph; Sabatier, Steven M; Caillouet, Kevin A

    2012-01-01

    The objective of this study is to gain insight into the medical needs of disaster evacuees, through a review of experiential data collected in evacuation shelters in the days and weeks following Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005, to better prepare for similar events in the future. Armed with the information and insights provided herein, it is hoped that meaningful precautions and decisive actions can be taken by individuals, families, institutions, communities, and officials should the Louisiana Gulf Coast-or any other area with well-known vulnerabilities-be faced with a future emergency. Demographic and clinical data that were recorded on paper documents during triage and treatment in evacuation shelters were later transcribed into a computerized database management system, with cooperation of the Department of Health Information Management at The University of Louisiana at Lafayette. Analysis of those contemporaneously collected data was undertaken later by the Louisiana Center for Health Informatics. Evacuation shelters, Parish Health Units, and other locations including churches and community centers were the venue for ad hoc clinics in the Acadiana region of Louisiana. The evacuee-patients-3,329 of them-whose information is reflected in the subject dataset were among two geographically distinct but similarly distressed groups: 1) evacuees from Hurricane Katrina that devastated New Orleans and other locales near Louisiana and neighboring states in late August 2005 and 2) evacuees from Hurricane Rita that devastated Southwest Louisiana and neighboring areas of Texas in September 2005. Patient data were collected by physicians, nurses, and other volunteers associated with the Operation Minnesota Lifeline (OML) deployment during the weeks following the events. Volunteer clinicians from OML provided triage and treatment services and documented those services as paper medical records. As the focus of the OML "mission of mercy" was entirely on direct individually

  4. Documentation and hydrologic analysis of Hurricane Sandy in New Jersey, October 29–30, 2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suro, Thomas P.; Deetz, Anna; Hearn, Paul

    2016-11-17

    In 2012, a late season tropical depression developed into a tropical storm and later a hurricane. The hurricane, named “Hurricane Sandy,” gained strength to a Category 3 storm on October 25, 2012, and underwent several transitions on its approach to the mid-Atlantic region of the eastern coast of the United States. By October 28, 2012, Hurricane Sandy had strengthened into the largest hurricane ever recorded in the North Atlantic and was tracking parallel to the east coast of United States, heading toward New Jersey. On October 29, 2012, the storm turned west-northwest and made landfall near Atlantic City, N.J. The high winds and wind-driven storm surge caused massive damage along the entire coastline of New Jersey. Millions of people were left without power or communication networks. Many homes were completely destroyed. Sand dunes were eroded, and the barrier island at Mantoloking was breached, connecting the ocean with Barnegat Bay.Several days before the storm made landfall in New Jersey, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) made a decision to deploy a temporary network of storm-tide sensors and barometric pressure sensors from Virginia to Maine to supplement the existing USGS and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) networks of permanent tide monitoring stations. After the storm made landfall, the USGS conducted a sensor data recovery and high-water-mark collection campaign in cooperation with the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA).Peak storm-tide elevations documented at USGS tide gages, tidal crest-stage gages, temporary storm sensor locations, and high-water-mark sites indicate the area from southern Monmouth County, N.J., north through Raritan Bay, N.J., had the highest peak storm-tide elevations during this storm. The USGS tide gages at Raritan River at South Amboy and Raritan Bay at Keansburg, part of the New Jersey Tide Telemetry System, each recorded peak storm-tide elevations of greater than 13 feet (ft)—more than 5 ft

  5. Hurricane Rita Track Radar Image with Topographic Overlay

    Science.gov (United States)

    2005-01-01

    [figure removed for brevity, see original site] Animation About the animation: This simulated view of the potential effects of storm surge flooding on Galveston and portions of south Houston was generated with data from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission. Although it is protected by a 17-foot sea wall against storm surges, flooding due to storm surges caused by major hurricanes remains a concern. The animation shows regions that, if unprotected, would be inundated with water. The animation depicts flooding in one-meter increments. About the image: The Gulf Coast from the Mississippi Delta through the Texas coast is shown in this satellite image from NASA's Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) overlain with data from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM), and the predicted storm track for Hurricane Rita. The prediction from the National Weather Service was published Sept. 22 at 4 p.m. Central Time, and shows the expected track center in black with the lighter shaded area indicating the range of potential tracks the storm could take. Low-lying terrain along the coast has been highlighted using the SRTM elevation data, with areas within 15 feet of sea level shown in red, and within 30 feet in yellow. These areas are more at risk for flooding and the destructive effects of storm surge and high waves. Data used in this image were acquired by the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission aboard the Space Shuttle Endeavour, launched on Feb. 11, 2000. SRTM used the same radar instrument that comprised the Spaceborne Imaging Radar-C/X-Band Synthetic Aperture Radar (SIR-C/X-SAR) that flew twice on the Space Shuttle Endeavour in 1994. SRTM was designed to collect 3-D measurements of the Earth's surface. To collect the 3-D data, engineers added a 60-meter (approximately 200-foot) mast, installed additional C-band and X-band antennas, and improved tracking and navigation devices. The mission is a cooperative project between NASA, the National Geospatial

  6. The effects of Hurricane Irene and Tropical Storm Lee on the bed sediment geochemistry of U.S. Atlantic coastal rivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horowitz, Arthur J.

    2013-01-01

    Hurricane Irene and Tropical Storm Lee, both of which made landfall in the U.S. between late August and early September 2011, generated record or near record water discharges in 41 coastal rivers between the North Carolina/South Carolina border and the U.S./Canadian border. Despite the discharge of substantial amounts of suspended sediment from many of these rivers, as well as the probable influx of substantial amounts of eroded material from the surrounding basins, the geochemical effects on the TOC), total nitrogen (TN), Zn, Se, Co, Cu, Pb, As, Cr, and total carbon (TC). As a group, these constituents tend to be associated either with urbanization/elevated population densities and/or wastewater/solid sludge. The limited number of significant sediment-associated chemical changes that were detected probably resulted from two potential processes: (1) the flushing of in-stream land-use affected sediments that were replaced by baseline material more representative of local geology and/or soils (declining concentrations), and/or (2) the inclusion of more heavily affected material as a result of urban nonpoint-source runoff and/or releases from flooded treatment facilities (increasing concentrations). Published 2013. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

  7. Investigation of the relationship between hurricane waves and extreme runup

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, D. M.; Stockdon, H. F.

    2006-12-01

    In addition to storm surge, the elevation of wave-induced runup plays a significant role in forcing geomorphic change during extreme storms. Empirical formulations for extreme runup, defined as the 2% exceedence level, are dependent on some measure of significant offshore wave height. Accurate prediction of extreme runup, particularly during hurricanes when wave heights are large, depends on selecting the most appropriate measure of wave height that provides energy to the nearshore system. Using measurements from deep-water wave buoys results in an overprediction of runup elevation. Under storm forcing these large waves dissipate across the shelf through friction, whitecapping and depth-limited breaking before reaching the beach and forcing swash processes. The use of a local, shallow water wave height has been shown to provide a more accurate estimate of extreme runup elevation (Stockdon, et. al. 2006); however, a specific definition of this local wave height has yet to be defined. Using observations of nearshore waves from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers' Field Research Facility (FRF) in Duck, NC during Hurricane Isabel, the most relevant measure of wave height for use in empirical runup parameterizations was examined. Spatial and temporal variability of the hurricane wave field, which made landfall on September 18, 2003, were modeled using SWAN. Comparisons with wave data from FRF gages and deep-water buoys operated by NOAA's National Data Buoy Center were used for model calibration. Various measures of local wave height (breaking, dissipation-based, etc.) were extracted from the model domain and used as input to the runup parameterizations. Video based observations of runup collected at the FRF during the storm were used to ground truth modeled values. Assessment of the most appropriate measure of wave height can be extended over a large area through comparisons to observations of storm- induced geomorphic change.

  8. Swamp tours in Louisiana post Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dawn J. Schaffer; Craig A. Miller

    2007-01-01

    Hurricanes Katrina and Rita made landfall in southern Louisiana during August and September 2005. Prior to these storms, swamp tours were a growing sector of nature-based tourism that entertained visitors while teaching about local flora, fauna, and culture. This study determined post-hurricane operating status of tours, damage sustained, and repairs made. Differences...

  9. Integration of coastal inundation modeling from storm tides to individual waves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ning; Roeber, Volker; Yamazaki, Yoshiki; Heitmann, Troy W.; Bai, Yefei; Cheung, Kwok Fai

    2014-11-01

    Modeling of storm-induced coastal inundation has primarily focused on the surge generated by atmospheric pressure and surface winds with phase-averaged effects of the waves as setup. Through an interoperable model package, we investigate the role of phase-resolving wave processes in simulation of coastal flood hazards. A spectral ocean wave model describes generation and propagation of storm waves from deep to intermediate water, while a non-hydrostatic storm-tide model has the option to couple with a spectral coastal wave model for computation of phase-averaged processes in a near-shore region. The ocean wave and storm-tide models can alternatively provide the wave spectrum and the surface elevation as the boundary and initial conditions for a nested Boussinesq model. Additional surface-gradient terms in the Boussinesq equations maintain the quasi-steady, non-uniform storm tide for modeling of phase-resolving surf and swash-zone processes as well as combined tide, surge, and wave inundation. The two nesting schemes are demonstrated through a case study of Hurricane Iniki, which made landfall on the Hawaiian Island of Kauai in 1992. With input from a parametric hurricane model and global reanalysis and tidal datasets, the two approaches produce comparable significant wave heights and phase-averaged surface elevations in the surf zone. The nesting of the Boussinesq model provides a seamless approach to augment the inundation due to the individual waves in matching the recorded debris line along the coast.

  10. Storm Data Publication

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — 'Storm Data and Unusual Weather Phenomena' is a monthly publication containing a chronological listing, by state, of hurricanes, tornadoes, thunderstorms, hail,...

  11. Hurricane feedback research may improve intensity forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schultz, Colin

    2012-06-01

    Forecasts of a hurricane's intensity are generally much less accurate than forecasts of its most likely path. Large-scale atmospheric patterns dictate where a hurricane will go and how quickly it will get there. The storm's intensity, however, depends on small-scale shifts in atmospheric stratification, upwelling rates, and other transient dynamics that are difficult to predict. Properly understanding the risk posed by an impending storm depends on having a firm grasp of all three properties: translational speed, intensity, and path. Drawing on 40 years of hurricane records representing 3090 different storms, Mei et al. propose that a hurricane's translational speed and intensity may be closely linked.

  12. Using High-Resolution Imagery to Characterize Disturbance from Hurricane Irma in South Florida Wetlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lagomasino, D.; Cook, B.; Fatoyinbo, T.; Morton, D. C.; Montesano, P.; Neigh, C. S. R.; Wooten, M.; Gaiser, E.; Troxler, T.

    2017-12-01

    Hurricane Irma, one of the strongest hurricanes recorded in the Atlantic, first made landfall in the Florida Keys before coming ashore in southwestern Florida near Everglades National Park (ENP) on September 9th and 10th of this year. Strong winds and storm surge impacted a 100+ km stretch of the southern Florida Gulf Coast, resulting in extensive damages to coastal and inland ecosystems. Impacts from previous catastrophic storms in the region have led to irreversible changes to vegetation communities and in some areas, ecosystem collapse. The processes that drive coastal wetland vulnerability and resilience are largely a function of the severity of the impact to forest structure and ground elevation. Remotely sensed imagery plays an important role in measuring changes to the landscape, particularly for extensive and inaccessible regions like the mangroves in ENP. We have estimated changes in coastal vegetation structure and soil elevation using a combination of repeat measurements from ground, airborne, and satellite platforms. At the ground level, we used before and after Structure-from-Motion models to capture the change in below canopy structure as result of stem breakage and fallen branches. Using airborne imagery collected before and after Hurricane Irma by Goddard's Lidar, Hyperspectral, and Thermal (G-LiHT) Airborne Imager, we measured the change in forest structure and soil elevation. This unique data acquisition covered an area over 130,000 ha in regions most heavily impacted storm surge. Lastly, we also combined commercial and NASA satellite Earth observations to measure forest structural changes across the entire South Florida coast. An analysis of long-term observations from the Landsat data archive highlights the heterogeneity of hurricane and other environmental disturbances along the Florida coast. These findings captured coastal disturbance legacies that have the potential to influence the trajectory of mangrove resilience and vulnerability

  13. Are recent hurricane (Harvey, Irma, Maria) disasters natural?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trenberth, K. E.; Lijing, C.; Jacobs, P.; Abraham, J. P.

    2017-12-01

    Yes and no! Hurricanes are certainly natural, but human-caused climate change is supersizing them, and unbridled growth is exacerbating risk of major damages. The addition of heat-trapping gases to the atmosphere has led to observed increases in upper ocean heat content (OHC). This human-caused increase in OHC supports higher sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and atmospheric moisture. These elevated temperatures and increased moisture availability fuel tropical storms, allowing them to grow larger, longer lasting, and more intense, and with widespread heavy rainfalls. Our preliminary analysis of OHC through the August of 2017 shows not only was it by far the highest on record globally, but it was also the highest on record in the Gulf of Mexico prior to hurricane Harvey occurring. The human influence on the climate is also evident in rising sea levels, which increases risks from storm surges. These climatic changes are taking place against a background of growing habitation along coasts, which further increases the risk storms pose to life and property. This combination of planning choice and climatic change illustrates the tragedy of global warming, as evidenced by Harvey in Houston, Irma in the Caribbean and Florida, and Maria in Puerto Rico. However, future damages and loss of life can be mitigated, by stopping or slowing human-caused climate change, and through proactive planning (e.g., better building codes, increased-capacity drainage systems, shelters, and evacuation plans). We discuss the climatic and planning contexts of the unnatural disasters of the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane season, including novel indices of climate-hurricane influence.

  14. Dynamic interactions between coastal storms and salt marshes: A review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leonardi, Nicoletta; Carnacina, Iacopo; Donatelli, Carmine; Ganju, Neil K.; Plater, Andrew James; Schuerch, Mark; Temmerman, Stijn

    2018-01-01

    This manuscript reviews the progresses made in the understanding of the dynamic interactions between coastal storms and salt marshes, including the dissipation of extreme water levels and wind waves across marsh surfaces, the geomorphic impact of storms on salt marshes, the preservation of hurricanes signals and deposits into the sedimentary records, and the importance of storms for the long term survival of salt marshes to sea level rise. A review of weaknesses, and strengths of coastal defences incorporating the use of salt marshes including natural, and hybrid infrastructures in comparison to standard built solutions is then presented.Salt marshes are effective in dissipating wave energy, and storm surges, especially when the marsh is highly elevated, and continuous. This buffering action reduces for storms lasting more than one day. Storm surge attenuation rates range from 1.7 to 25 cm/km depending on marsh and storms characteristics. In terms of vegetation properties, the more flexible stems tend to flatten during powerful storms, and to dissipate less energy but they are also more resilient to structural damage, and their flattening helps to protect the marsh surface from erosion, while stiff plants tend to break, and could increase the turbulence level and the scour. From a morphological point of view, salt marshes are generally able to withstand violent storms without collapsing, and violent storms are responsible for only a small portion of the long term marsh erosion.Our considerations highlight the necessity to focus on the indirect long term impact that large storms exerts on the whole marsh complex rather than on sole after-storm periods. The morphological consequences of storms, even if not dramatic, might in fact influence the response of the system to normal weather conditions during following inter-storm periods. For instance, storms can cause tidal flats deepening which in turn promotes wave energy propagation, and exerts a long term

  15. Dynamic interactions between coastal storms and salt marshes: A review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leonardi, Nicoletta; Carnacina, Iacopo; Donatelli, Carmine; Ganju, Neil Kamal; Plater, Andrew James; Schuerch, Mark; Temmerman, Stijn

    2018-01-01

    This manuscript reviews the progresses made in the understanding of the dynamic interactions between coastal storms and salt marshes, including the dissipation of extreme water levels and wind waves across marsh surfaces, the geomorphic impact of storms on salt marshes, the preservation of hurricanes signals and deposits into the sedimentary records, and the importance of storms for the long term survival of salt marshes to sea level rise. A review of weaknesses, and strengths of coastal defences incorporating the use of salt marshes including natural, and hybrid infrastructures in comparison to standard built solutions is then presented. Salt marshes are effective in dissipating wave energy, and storm surges, especially when the marsh is highly elevated, and continuous. This buffering action reduces for storms lasting more than one day. Storm surge attenuation rates range from 1.7 to 25 cm/km depending on marsh and storms characteristics. In terms of vegetation properties, the more flexible stems tend to flatten during powerful storms, and to dissipate less energy but they are also more resilient to structural damage, and their flattening helps to protect the marsh surface from erosion, while stiff plants tend to break, and could increase the turbulence level and the scour. From a morphological point of view, salt marshes are generally able to withstand violent storms without collapsing, and violent storms are responsible for only a small portion of the long term marsh erosion. Our considerations highlight the necessity to focus on the indirect long term impact that large storms exerts on the whole marsh complex rather than on sole after-storm periods. The morphological consequences of storms, even if not dramatic, might in fact influence the response of the system to normal weather conditions during following inter-storm periods. For instance, storms can cause tidal flats deepening which in turn promotes wave energy propagation, and exerts a long term detrimental

  16. Hurricane Harvey rapid response: observations of infragravity wave dynamics and morphological change during inundation of a barrier island cut

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anarde, K.; Figlus, J.; Dellapenna, T. M.; Bedient, P. B.

    2017-12-01

    Prior to landfall of Hurricane Harvey on August 25, 2017, instrumentation was deployed on the seaward and landward sides of a barrier island on the central Texas Gulf Coast to collect in-situ hydrodynamic measurements during storm impact. High-resolution devices capable of withstanding extreme conditions included inexpensive pressure transducers and tilt current meters mounted within and atop (respectively) shallow monitoring wells. In order to link measurements of storm hydrodynamics with the morphological evolution of the barrier, pre- and post-storm digital elevation models were generated using a combination of unmanned aerial imagery, LiDAR, and real-time kinematic GPS. Push-cores were collected and analyzed for grain size and sedimentary structure to relate hydrodynamic observations with the local character of storm-generated deposits. Observations show that at Hog Island, located approximately 160 miles northeast of Harvey's landfall location, storm surge inundated an inactive storm channel. Infragravity waves (0.003 - 0.05 Hz) dominated the water motion onshore of the berm crest over a 24-hour period proximate to storm landfall. Over this time, approximately 50 cm of sediment accreted vertically atop the instrument located in the backshore. Storm deposits at this location contained sub-parallel alternating laminae of quartz and heavy mineral-enriched sand. While onshore progression of infragravity waves into the back-barrier was observed over several hours prior to storm landfall, storm deposits in the back-barrier lack the characteristic laminae preserved in the backshore. These field measurements will ultimately be used to constrain and validate numerical modeling schemes that explore morphodynamic conditions of barriers in response to extreme storms (e.g., XBeach, CSHORE). This study provides a unique data set linking extreme storm hydrodynamics with geomorphic changes during a relatively low surge, but highly dissipative wave event.

  17. The use of long-term observations in combination with modeling and their effect on the estimation of the North Sea storm surge climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aspelien, T.

    2006-07-01

    The aim of this PhD thesis is to design, implement and assess a method to combine long-term observations with multi-decadal model simulations. In this work a computationally cost-efficient nudging method, well suited for multi-decadal simulations, is chosen. First, the nudging method was tested for its sensitivity to different parameters. Then the long-term observations of sea level height from the UK tide gauge Aberdeen were combined with a multi-decadal hindcast for the North Sea. Compared to a control simulation, in which no observed values of sea level height were combined with the model, the nudging method generally improves the modeled water levels with respect to the observed values, especially for surge. The estimation of long-term fluctuations and biases of extreme values of high waters in the nudged simulation are generally considerably improved after nudging and closer to the observed. The effect is largest in the German Bight and at the West coast of Denmark. It is concluded that the cost-efficient nudging method, in which external processes, such as external surges, are additionally taken into account, provides a considerable improvement in reproducing long-term variations and trends, especially for surge. Without additional data from e.g. observed values from tide gauges taken into account, the meteorological induced long-term variations in a hindcast are not fully captured. (orig.)

  18. A Climatological Study of Hurricane Force Extratropical Cyclones

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-03-01

    extratropical cyclone by months in the Pacific basin. Most of the storms occur from October through March...hurricane force extratropical cyclone. Starting from left to right; the first column is the storm name, second column is the year, month, day, hour (UTC...2000 through 2007 illustrates that the number of hurricane-force extratropical cyclones is quite significant: approximately 500 storms , nearly evenly

  19. Coastal Sediment Distribution Patterns Following Category 5 Hurricanes (Irma and Maria): Pre and Post Hurricane High Resolution Multibeam Surveys of Eastern St. John, US Virgin Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Browning, T. N.; Sawyer, D. E.; Russell, P.

    2017-12-01

    In August of 2017 we collected high resolution multibeam data of the seafloor in a large embayment in eastern St. John, US Virgin Islands (USVI). One month later, the eyewall of Category 5 Hurricane Irma directly hit St. John as one of the largest hurricanes on record in the Atlantic Ocean. A week later, Category 5 Hurricane Maria passed over St. John. While the full extent of the impacts are still being assessed, the island experienced a severe loss of vegetation, infrastructure, buildings, roads, and boats. We mobilized less than two months afterward to conduct a repeat survey of the same area on St. John. We then compared these data to document and quantify the sediment influx and movement that occurred in coastal embayments as a result of Hurricanes Irma and Maria. The preliminary result of the intense rain, wind, and storm surge likely yields an event deposit that can be mapped and volumetrically quantified in the bays of eastern St. John. The results of this study allow for a detailed understanding of the post-hurricane pulse of sediment that enters the marine environment, the sediment flux seaward, and the morphological changes to the bay floor.

  20. Examining the effects of hurricanes Matthew and Irma on water quality in the intracoastal waterway, St. Augustine, FL.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, N. D.; Osborne, T.; Dye, T.; Julian, P.

    2017-12-01

    The last several years have been marked by a high incidence of Atlantic tropical cyclones making landfall as powerful hurricanes or tropical storms. For example, in 2016 Hurricane Matthew devastated parts of the Caribbean and the southeastern United States. In 2017, this region was further battered by hurricanes Irma and Maria. Here, we present water quality data collected in the intracoastal waterway near the Whitney Lab for Marine Bioscience during hurricanes Matthew and Irma, a region that experienced flooding during both storms. YSI Exo 2 sondes were deployed to measure pH, salinity, temperature, dissolved O2, fluorescent dissolved organic matter (fDOM), turbidity, and Chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) on a 15 minute interval. The Hurricane Matthew sonde deployment failed as soon as the storm hit, but revealed an interesting phenomenon leading up to the storm that was also observed during Irma. Salinity in the intracoastal waterway (off the Whitney Lab dock) typically varies from purely marine to 15-20 psu throughout the tidal cycle. However, several days before both storms approached the Florida coast (i.e. when they were near the Caribbean), the salinity signal became purely marine, overriding any tidal signal. Anecdotally, storm drains were already filled up to street level prior to the storm hitting, poising the region for immense flooding and storm surge. The opposite effect was observed after Irma moved past FL. Water became much fresher than normal for several days and it took almost a week to return to "normal" salinity tidal cycles. As both storms hit, turbidity increased by an order of magnitude for a several hour period. fDOM and O2 behaved similar to salinity during and after Irma, showing a mostly marine signal (e.g. higher O2, lower fDOM) in the lead up, and brief switch to more freshwater influence the week after the storm. Chl-a peaked several days after the storm, presumably due to mobilization of nutrient rich flood and waste waters and subsequent algae

  1. Meeting the Science Needs of the Nation in the Wake of Hurricane Sandy-- A U.S. Geological Survey Science Plan for Support of Restoration and Recovery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buxton, Herbert T.; Andersen, Matthew E.; Focazio, Michael J.; Haines, John W.; Hainly, Robert A.; Hippe, Daniel J.; Sugarbaker, Larry J.

    2013-01-01

    n late October 2012, Hurricane Sandy came ashore during a spring high tide on the New Jersey coastline, delivering hurricane-force winds, storm tides exceeding 19 feet, driving rain, and plummeting temperatures. Hurricane Sandy resulted in 72 direct fatalities in the mid-Atlantic and northeastern United States, and widespread and substantial physical, environmental, ecological, social, and economic impacts estimated at near $50 billion. Before the landfall of Hurricane Sandy, the USGS provided forecasts of potential coastal change; collected oblique aerial photography of pre-storm coastal morphology; deployed storm-surge sensors, rapid-deployment streamgages, wave sensors, and barometric pressure sensors; conducted Light Detection And Ranging (lidar) aerial topographic surveys of coastal areas; and issued a landslide alert for landslide prone areas. During the storm, Tidal Telemetry Networks provided real-time water-level information along the coast. Long-term network and rapid-deployment real-time streamgages and water-quality monitors reported on river levels and changes in water quality. Immediately after the storm, the USGS serviced real-time instrumentation, retrieved data from over 140 storm-surge sensors, and collected other essential environmental data, including more than 830 high-water marks mapping the extent and elevation of the storm surge. Post-storm lidar surveys documented storm impacts to coastal barriers informing response and recovery and providing a new baseline to assess vulnerability of the reconfigured coast. The USGS Hazard Data Distribution System served storm related information from many agencies on the Internet on a daily basis. This science plan was developed immediately following Hurricane Sandy to coordinate continuing USGS activities with other agencies and to guide continued data collection and analysis to ensure support for recovery and restoration efforts. The data, information, and tools that are produced by implementing this

  2. Sediment deposition from Hurricane Rita on Hackberry Beach chenier in southwestern Louisiana: Chapter 6E in Science and the storms-the USGS response to the hurricanes of 2005

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faulkner, Stephen; Barrow, Wylie; Doyle, Thomas; Baldwin, Michael; Michot, Thomas; Wells, Christopher; Jeske, Clint

    2007-01-01

    Hurricane Rita significantly impacted the chenier forests of southwestern Louisiana, an important habitat for Neotropical migratory birds. Sediment deposition was measured along transects at Hackberry Beach chenier, and Rita's effects on chenier structure and morphology were determined.

  3. Hurricane Imaging Radiometer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cecil, Daniel J.; Biswas, Sayak K.; James, Mark W.; Roberts, J. Brent; Jones, W. Linwood; Johnson, James; Farrar, Spencer; Sahawneh, Saleem; Ruf, Christopher S.; Morris, Mary; hide

    2014-01-01

    The Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD) is a synthetic thinned array passive microwave radiometer designed to allow retrieval of surface wind speed in hurricanes, up through category five intensity. The retrieval technology follows the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR), which measures surface wind speed in hurricanes along a narrow strip beneath the aircraft. HIRAD maps wind speeds in a swath below the aircraft, about 50-60 km wide when flown in the lower stratosphere. HIRAD has flown in the NASA Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes (GRIP) experiment in 2010 on a WB-57 aircraft, and on a Global Hawk unmanned aircraft system (UAS) in 2012 and 2013 as part of NASA's Hurricane and Severe Storms Sentinel (HS3) program. The GRIP program included flights over Hurricanes Earl and Karl (2010). The 2012 HS3 deployment did not include any hurricane flights for the UAS carrying HIRAD. The 2013 HS3 flights included one flight over the predecessor to TS Gabrielle, and one flight over Hurricane Ingrid. This presentation will describe the HIRAD instrument, its results from the 2010 and 2013 flights, and potential future developments.

  4. Leveraging Social Media Data to Understand Disaster Resilience: A Case Study of Hurricane Isaac

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zou, L.; Lam, N.; Cai, H.

    2017-12-01

    Coastal communities are facing multiple threats from natural hazards, such as hurricanes, flooding, and storm surge, and show uneven response and recovery behaviors. To build a sustainable coast, it is critical to understand how coastal hazards affect humans and how to enhance disaster resilience. However, understanding community resilience remains challenging, due to the lack of real-time data describing community's response and recovery behaviors during disasters. Public discussion through social media platforms provides an opportunity to understand these behaviors by categorizing real-time social media data into three main phases of emergency management - preparedness, response, and recovery. This study analyzes the spatial-temporal patterns of Twitter use and content during Hurricane Isaac, which struck coastal Louisiana on August 29, 2012. The study area includes counties affected by Hurricane Isaac in Louisiana and Mississippi. The objectives are three-fold. First, we will compute a set of Twitter indices to quantify the Twitter activities during Hurricane Issac and the results will be compared with those of Hurricane Sandy to gain a better understanding of human response in extreme events. Second, county-level disaster resilience in the affected region will be computed and evaluated using the Resilience Inference Measurement (RIM) model. Third, we will examine the relationship between the geographical and social disparities in Twitter use and the disparities in disaster resilience and evaluate the role of Twitter use in disaster resilience. Knowledge gained from this study could provide valuable insights into strategies for utilizing social media data to increase resilience to disasters.

  5. Study of the responsible factors for the closure of an intermittent washout during a storm surge, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil

    OpenAIRE

    Serpa, Christian Garcia; Romeu, Marco Antônio Rígola; Fontoura, Jose Antonio Scotti; Calliari, Lauro Julio; Melo Filho, Eloi; Albuquerque, Miguel da Guia

    2011-01-01

    The washouts are water courses essential to the drainage of the water accumulated in the backshore zone, and are responsible for great ruptures in the dunes field. They supply the swash zone with large amounts of sediment. The study area is located a few kilometers south of the Patos Lagoon Inlet. This study measures the contribution of the wind, the waves, the atmospheric pressure and the tide on the elevation of the sea level in a period when the beach has suffered the impact of a storm sur...

  6. Climatic Changes and Consequences on the French West Indies (C3AF), Hurricane and Tsunami Hazards Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnaud, G.; Krien, Y.; Zahibo, N.; Dudon, B.

    2017-12-01

    Coastal hazards are among the most worrying threats of our time. In a context of climate change coupled to a large population increase, tropical areas could be the most exposed zones of the globe. In such circumstances, understanding the underlying processes can help to better predict storm surges and the associated global risks.Here we present the partial preliminary results integrated in a multidisciplinary project focused on climatic change effects over the coastal threat in the French West Indies and funded by the European Regional Development Fund. The study aims to provide a coastal hazard assessment based on hurricane surge and tsunami modeling including several aspects of climate changes that can affect hazards such as sea level rise, crustal subsidence/uplift, coastline changes etc. Several tsunamis scenarios have been simulated including tele-tsunamis to ensure a large range of tsunami hazards. Surge level of hurricane have been calculated using a large number of synthetic hurricanes to cover the actual and forecasted climate over the tropical area of Atlantic ocean. This hazard assessment will be later coupled with stakes assessed over the territory to provide risk maps.

  7. Storm tide monitoring during the blizzard of January 26-28, 2015, in eastern Massachusetts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Massey, Andrew J.; Verdi, Richard J.

    2015-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) deployed a temporary monitoring network of six storm surge sensors and four barometric pressure sensors along the Atlantic coast in eastern Massachusetts, from Plymouth to Newburyport, before the blizzard of January 26–28, 2015 (Blizzard of January 2015), to record the timing and magnitude of storm tide at select locations where forecasters had predicted the potential for coastal flooding. Additionally, water-level data were recorded and transmitted in near real-time from four permanent USGS tidal stations—three on Cape Cod and one near the mouth of the Merrimack River in Newburyport. The storm surge sensors were deployed at previously established fixed sites outfitted with presurveyed mounting brackets. The mounting brackets were installed in 2014 as part of the USGS Surge, Wave, and Tide Hydrodynamic (SWaTH) Network (https://water.usgs.gov/floods/STN/), which was funded through congressional supplemental appropriations for the U.S. Department of the Interior after the devastating landfall of Hurricane Sandy on October 29, 2012 (Simmons and others, 2014). The USGS received this funding to enable better understanding of coastal flooding hazards in the region, to improve preparedness for future coastal storms, and to increase the resilience of coastal cities, infrastructure, and natural systems in the region (Buxton and others, 2013). The USGS established 163 monitoring locations along the New England coast for the SWaTH Network, including 70 sites in Massachusetts.

  8. Hurricane Impacts on Small Island Communities: Case study of Hurricane Matthew on Great Exuma, The Bahamas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sullivan Sealey, Kathleen; Bowleg, John

    2017-04-01

    Great Exuma has been a UNESCO Eco-hydrology Project Site with a focus on coastal restoration and flood management. Great Exuma and its largest settlement, George Town, support a population of just over 8.000 people on an island dominated by extensive coastal wetlands. The Victoria Pond Eco-Hydrology project restored flow and drainage to highly-altered coastal wetlands to reduce flooding of the built environment as well as regain ecological function. The project was designed to show the value of a protected wetland and coastal environment within a populated settlement; demonstrating that people can live alongside mangroves and value "green" infrastructure for flood protection. The restoration project was initiated after severe storm flooding in 2007 with Tropical Storm Noel. In 2016, the passing of Hurricane Matthew had unprecedented impacts on the coastal communities of Great Exuma, challenging past practices in restoration and flood prevention. This talk reviews the loss of natural capital (for example, fish populations, mangroves, salt water inundation) from Hurricane Matthew based on a rapid response survey of Great Exuma. The surprisingly find was the impact of storm surge on low-lying areas used primarily for personal farms and small-scale agriculture. Although women made up the overwhelming majority of people who attended Coastal Restoration workshops, women were most adversely impacted by the recent hurricane flooding with the loss of their small low-lying farms and gardens. Although increasing culverts in mangrove creeks in two areas did reduce building flood damage, the low-lying areas adjacent to mangroves, mostly ephemeral freshwater wetlands, were inundated with saltwater, and seasonal crops in these areas were destroyed. These ephemeral wetlands were designed as part of the wetland flooding system, it was not known how important these small areas were to artisanal farming on Great Exuma. The size and scope of Hurricane Matthew passing through the

  9. A Perspective on Sea Level Rise and Coastal Storm Surge from Southern and Eastern Africa: A Case Study Near Durban, South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Derek D. Stretch

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Recent coastal storms in southern Africa have highlighted the need for more proactive management of the coastline. Within the southern and eastern African region the availability of coastal information is poor. The greatest gap in information is the likely effects of a combination of severe sea storms and future sea level rise (SLR on the shoreline. This lack of information creates a barrier to informed decision making. This research outlines a practical localized approach to this problem, which can be applied as a first order assessment within the region. In so doing it provides a cost effective and simple decision support tool for the built environment and disaster professionals in development and disaster assessments. In a South African context the newly promulgated Integrated Coastal Management Act requires that all proposed coastal developments take into consideration future SLR, however such information currently does not exist, despite it being vital for informed planning in the coastal zone. This practical approach has been applied to the coastline of Durban, South Africa as a case study. The outputs are presented in a Geographic Information System (GIS based freeware viewer tool enabling ease of access to both professionals and laypersons. This demonstrates that a simple approach can provide valuable information about the current and future risk of flooding and coastal erosion under climate change to buildings, infrastructure as well as natural features along the coast.

  10. The Long Term Recovery of New Orleans' Population after Hurricane Katrina.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fussell, Elizabeth

    2015-09-01

    Hurricane Katrina created a catastrophe in the city of New Orleans when the storm surge caused the levee system to fail on August 29, 2005. The destruction of housing displaced hundreds of thousands of residents for varying lengths of time, often permanently. It also revealed gaps in our knowledge of how population is recovered after a disaster causes widespread destruction of urban infrastructure, housing and workplaces, and how mechanisms driving housing recovery often produce unequal social, spatial and temporal population recovery. In this article, I assemble social, spatial and temporal explanatory frameworks for housing and population recovery and then review research on mobility - both evacuation and migration - after Hurricane Katrina. The review reveals a need for a comprehensive social, spatial and temporal framework for explaining inequality in population recovery and displacement. It also shows how little is known about in-migrants and permanent out-migrants after a disaster.

  11. Hurricane Sandy science plan: impacts of environmental quality and persisting contaminant exposure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caskie, Sarah A.

    2013-01-01

    Hurricane Sandy devastated some of the most heavily populated eastern coastal areas of the Nation. With a storm surge peaking at more than 19 feet, the powerful landscape-altering destruction of Hurricane Sandy is a stark reminder of why the Nation must become more resilient to coastal hazards. In response to this natural disaster, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) received a total of $41.2 million in supplemental appropriations from the Department of the Interior (DOI) to support response, recovery, and rebuilding efforts. These funds support a science plan that will provide critical scientific information necessary to inform management decisions for recovery of coastal communities, and aid in preparation for future natural hazards. This science plan is designed to coordinate continuing USGS activities with stakeholders and other agencies to improve data collection and analysis that will guide recovery and restoration efforts. The science plan is split into five distinct themes: • Coastal topography and bathymetry

  12. Hurricane Sandy science plan: impacts to coastal ecosystems, habitats, and fish and wildlife

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, Warren H.

    2013-01-01

    Hurricane Sandy devastated some of the most heavily populated eastern coastal areas of the Nation. With a storm surge peaking at more than 19 feet, the powerful landscape-altering destruction of Hurricane Sandy is a stark reminder of why the Nation must become more resilient to coastal hazards. In response to this natural disaster, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) received a total of $41.2 million in supplemental appropriations from the Department of the Interior (DOI) to support response, recovery, and rebuilding efforts. These funds support a science plan that will provide critical scientific information necessary to inform management decisions for recovery of coastal communities, and aid in preparation for future natural hazards. This science plan is designed to coordinate continuing USGS activities with stakeholders and other agencies to improve data collection and analysis that will guide recovery and restoration efforts. The science plan is split into five distinct themes: • Coastal topography and bathymetry

  13. Assessment of Damage and Adaptation Strategies for Structures and Infrastructure from Storm Surge and Sea Level Rise for a Coastal Community in Rhode Island, United States

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher Small

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an evaluation of inundation, erosion, and wave damage for a coastal community in Rhode Island, USA. A methodology called the Coastal Environmental Risk Index (CERI was used that incorporates levels of inundation including sea level rise, wave heights using STWAVE, and detailed information about individual structures from an E911 database. This information was input into damage functions developed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers following Hurricane Sandy. Damage from erosion was evaluated separately from local published erosion rates. Using CERI, two different adaptation strategies were evaluated that included a combination of dune restoration, protective berms, and a tide gate. A total of 151 out of 708 structures were estimated to be protected from inundation and wave action by the combined measures. More importantly, the use of CERI allowed for the assessment of the impact of different adaptation strategies on both individual structures and an entire community in a Geographical Information Systems (GIS environment. This tool shows promise for use by coastal managers to assess damage and mitigate risk to coastal communities.

  14. Geomorphic and ecological effects of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita on coastal Louisiana marsh communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piazza, Sarai C.; Steyer, Gregory D.; Cretini, Kari F.; Sasser, Charles E.; Visser, Jenneke M.; Holm, Guerry O.; Sharp, Leigh A.; Evers, D. Elaine; Meriwether, John R.

    2011-01-01

    Hurricanes Katrina and Rita made landfall in 2005, subjecting the coastal marsh communities of Louisiana to various degrees of exposure. We collected data after the storms at 30 sites within fresh (12), brackish/intermediate (12), and saline (6) marshes to document the effects of saltwater storm surge and sedimentation on marsh community dynamics. The 30 sites were comprised of 15 pairs. Most pairs contained one site where data collection occurred historically (that is, prestorms) and one Coastwide Reference Monitoring System site. Data were collected from spring 2006 to fall 2007 on vegetative species composition, percentage of vegetation cover, aboveground and belowground biomass, and canopy reflectance, along with discrete porewater salinity, hourly surface-water salinity, and water level. Where available, historical data acquired before Hurricanes Katrina and Rita were used to compare conditions and changes in ecological trajectories before and after the hurricanes. Sites experiencing direct and indirect hurricane influences (referred to in this report as levels of influence) were also identified, and the effects of hurricane influence were tested on vegetation and porewater data. Within fresh marshes, porewater salinity was greater in directly impacted areas, and this heightened salinity was reflected in decreased aboveground and belowground biomass and increased cover of disturbance species in the directly impacted sites. At the brackish/intermediate marsh sites, vegetation variables and porewater salinity were similar in directly and indirectly impacted areas, but porewater salinity was higher than expected throughout the study. Interestingly, directly impacted saline marsh sites had lower porewater salinity than indirectly impacted sites, but aboveground biomass was greater at the directly impacted sites. Because of the variable and site-specific nature of hurricane influences, we present case studies to help define postdisturbance baseline conditions in

  15. Differences in impacts of Hurricane Sandy on freshwater swamps on the Delmarva Peninsula, Mid−Atlantic Coast, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Middleton, Beth A.

    2016-01-01

    Hurricane wind and surge may have different influences on the subsequent composition of forests. During Hurricane Sandy, while damaging winds were highest near landfall in New Jersey, inundation occurred along the entire eastern seaboard from Georgia to Maine. In this study, a comparison of damage from salinity intrusion vs. wind/surge was recorded in swamps of the Delmarva Peninsula along the Pocomoke (MD) and Nanticoke (DE) Rivers, south of the most intense wind damage. Hickory Point Cypress Swamp (Hickory) was closest to the Chesapeake Bay and may have been subjected to a salinity surge as evidenced by elevated salinity levels at a gage upstream of this swamp (storm salinity = 13.1 ppt at Nassawango Creek, Snow Hill, Maryland). After Hurricane Sandy, 8% of the standing trees died at Hickory including Acer rubrum, Amelanchier laevis, Ilex spp., and Taxodium distichum. In Plot 2 of Hickory, 25% of the standing trees were dead, and soil salinity levels were the highest recorded in the study. The most important variables related to structural tree damage were soil salinity and proximity to the Atlantic coast as based on Stepwise Regression and NMDS procedures. Wind damage was mostly restricted to broken branches although tipped−up trees were found at Hickory, Whiton and Porter (species: Liquidamabar styraciflua, Pinus taeda, Populus deltoides, Quercus pagoda and Ilex spp.). These trees fell mostly in an east or east−southeast direction (88o−107o) in keeping with the wind direction of Hurricane Sandy on the Delmarva Peninsula. Coastal restoration and management can be informed by the specific differences in hurricane damage to vegetation by salt versus wind.

  16. Wetland shoreline recession in the Mississippi River Delta from petroleum oiling and cyclonic storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rangoonwala, Amina; Jones, Cathleen E.; Ramsey, Elijah W.

    2016-01-01

    We evaluate the relative impact of petroleum spill and storm surge on near-shore wetland loss by quantifying the lateral movement of coastal shores in upper Barataria Bay, Louisiana (USA), between June 2009 and October 2012, a study period that extends from the year prior to the Deepwater Horizon spill to 2.5 years following the spill. We document a distinctly different pattern of shoreline loss in the 2 years following the spill, both from that observed in the year prior to the spill, during which there was no major cyclonic storm, and from change related to Hurricane Isaac, which made landfall in August 2012. Shoreline erosion following oiling was far more spatially extensive and included loss in areas protected from wave-induced erosion. We conclude that petroleum exposure can substantially increase shoreline recession particularly in areas protected from storm-induced degradation and disproportionally alters small oil-exposed barrier islands relative to natural erosion.

  17. Assessment of the Water Levels and Currents at the Mississippi Bight During Hurricane Katrina.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nwankwo, U. C.; Howden, S. D.; Dodd, D.; Wells, D. E.

    2017-12-01

    In an effort to extend the length of GPS baselines further offshore, the Hydrographic Science Research Center at the University of Southern Mississippi deployed a buoy which had a survey grade GPS receiver, an ADPC and a motion sensor unit in the Mississippi Bight in late 2004. The GPS data were initially processed using the Post Processed Kinematic technique with data from a nearby GPS base station on Horn Island. This processing technique discontinued when the storm (Hurricane Katrina) destroyed the base station in late August of 2005. However, since then a stand-alone positioning technique termed Precise Point Positioning (PPP) matured and allowed for the reprocessing of the buoy GPS data throughout Katrina. The processed GPS data were corrected for buoy angular motions using Tait Bryan transformation model. Tidal datums (Epoch 1983-2001) were transferred from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Water Level at Waveland, Mississippi (Station ID 8747766) to the buoy using the Modified Range Ratio method. The maximum water level during the storm was found to be about 3.578m, relative to the transferred Mean Sea Level datum. The storm surge built over more than 24 hours, but fell back to normal levels in less than 3 hours. The maximum speed of the current with respect to the seafloor was recorded to be about 4knots towards the southeast as the storm surge moved back offshore.

  18. On the contribution of reconstruction labor wages and material prices to demand surge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olsen, Anna H.; Porter, Keith A.

    2011-01-01

    Demand surge is understood to be a socio-economic phenomenon of large-scale natural disasters, most commonly explained by higher repair costs (after a large- versus small-scale disaster) resulting from higher material prices and labor wages. This study tests this explanation by developing quantitative models for the cost change of sets, or "baskets," of repairs to damage caused by Atlantic hurricanes making landfall on the mainland United States. We define six such baskets, representing the total repair cost, and material and labor components, each for a typical residential or commercial property. We collect cost data from the leading provider of these data to insurance claims adjusters in the United States, and we calculate the cost changes from July to January for nine Atlantic hurricane seasons at fifty-two cities on the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts. The data show that: changes in labor costs drive the changes in total repair costs; cost changes can vary significantly by geographic region and year; and cost changes for the residential basket of repairs are more volatile than the cost changes for the commercial basket. We then propose a series of multilevel regression models to predict the cost changes by considering several combinations of the following explanatory variables: the largest gradient wind speed at a city in a hurricane season; the number of tropical storms in a hurricane season whose center passes within 200 km of a city; and cost changes in the first two quarters of the year. We also allow the coefficients of the regression model to be stochastic, varying across groups defined by region of the Southeastern United States and year. Our best models predict that, for any city on the Gulf or Atlantic Coasts in any hurricane season, the residential total repair cost changes vary from 0.01 to 0.25, depending on the wind speed and number of storms, with an uncertainty of 0.1 (two standard errors of prediction) given the wind speed and number of storms. The

  19. The effects of hurricane Rita and subsequent drought on alligators in southwest Louisiana.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lance, Valentine A; Elsey, Ruth M; Butterstein, George; Trosclair, Phillip L; Merchant, Mark

    2010-02-01

    Hurricane Rita struck the coast of southwest Louisiana in September 2005. The storm generated an enormous tidal surge of approximately four meters in height that inundated many thousands of acres of the coastal marsh with full strength seawater. The initial surge resulted in the deaths of a number of alligators and severely stressed those who survived. In addition, a prolonged drought (the lowest rainfall in 111 years of recorded weather data) following the hurricane resulted in highly saline conditions that persisted in the marsh for several months. We had the opportunity to collect 11 blood samples from alligators located on Holly Beach less than a month after the hurricane, but were unable to collect samples from alligators on Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge until February 2006. Conditions at Rockefeller Refuge did not permit systematic sampling, but a total of 201 samples were collected on the refuge up through August 2006. The blood samples were analyzed for sodium, potassium, chloride, osmolality, and corticosterone. Blood samples from alligators sampled on Holly Beach in October 2005, showed a marked elevation in plasma osmolality, sodium, chloride, potassium, corticosterone, and an elevated heterophil/lymphocyte ratio. Blood samples from alligators on Rockefeller Refuge showed increasing levels of corticosterone as the drought persisted and elevated osmolality and electrolytes. After substantial rainfall in July and August, these indices of osmotic stress returned to within normal limits. (c) 2009 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

  20. FAQ HURRICANES, TYPHOONS, AND TROPICAL CYCLONES

    Science.gov (United States)

    ? A6) What is a sub-tropical cyclone? A7) What is an extratropical cyclone ? A8) What is storm surge easterly wave and what causes them? A5) What is a tropical disturbance, tropical depression, tropical storm and how is it different from storm tide ? A9) What is a "CDO" ? A10) What is a TUTT ? A11

  1. Spectral Growth of Hurricane Generated Seas

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Finlayson, William

    1997-01-01

    The characteristics of a growing sea during hurricanes are significantly different from those observed in ordinary storms since the source of energy generating waves is moving and the rate of change...

  2. Assessing the Impacts of US Landfall Hurricanes in 2012 using Aerial Remote Sensing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bevington, John S.

    2013-04-01

    Remote sensing has become a widely-used technology for assessing and evaluating the extent and severity of impacts of natural disasters worldwide. Optical and radar data collected by air- and space-borne sensors have supported humanitarian and economic decision-making for over a decade. Advances in image spatial resolution and pre-processing speeds have meant images with centimetre spatial resolution are now available for analysis within hours following severe disaster events. This paper offers a retrospective view on recent large-scale responses to two of the major storms from the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season: Hurricane Isaac and post-tropical cyclone ("superstorm") Sandy. Although weak on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale, these slow-moving storms produced intense rainfall and coastal storm surges in the order of several metres in the Louisiana and Mississippi Gulf Coast (Isaac), and the Atlantic Seaboard (Sandy) of the United States. Data were generated for both events through interpretation of a combination of two types of aerial imagery: high spatial resolution optical imagery captured by fixed aerial sensors deployed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and digital single lens reflex (DSLR) images captured by volunteers from the US Civil Air Patrol (CAP). Imagery for these events were collected over a period of days following the storms' landfall in the US, with availability of aerial data far outweighing the sub-metre satellite imagery. The imagery described were collected as vertical views (NOAA) and oblique views (CAP) over the whole affected coastal and major riverine areas. A network of over 150 remote sensing experts systematically and manually processed images through visual interpretation, culminating in hundreds of thousands of individual properties identified as damaged or destroyed by wind or surge. A discussion is presented on the challenges of responding at such a fine level of spatial granularity for coastal

  3. Automatic urban debris zone extraction from post-hurricane very high-resolution satellite and aerial imagery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shasha Jiang

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Automated remote sensing methods have not gained widespread usage for damage assessment after hurricane events, especially for low-rise buildings, such as individual houses and small businesses. Hurricane wind, storm surge with waves, and inland flooding have unique damage signatures, further complicating the development of robust automated assessment methodologies. As a step toward realizing automated damage assessment for multi-hazard hurricane events, this paper presents a mono-temporal image classification methodology that quickly and accurately differentiates urban debris from non-debris areas using post-event images. Three classification approaches are presented: spectral, textural, and combined spectral–textural. The methodology is demonstrated for Gulfport, Mississippi, using IKONOS panchromatic satellite and NOAA aerial colour imagery collected after 2005 Hurricane Katrina. The results show that multivariate texture information significantly improves debris class detection performance by decreasing the confusion between debris and other land cover types, and the extracted debris zone accurately captures debris distribution. Additionally, the extracted debris boundary is approximately equivalent regardless of imagery type, demonstrating the flexibility and robustness of the debris mapping methodology. While the test case presents results for hurricane hazards, the proposed methodology is generally developed and expected to be effective in delineating debris zones for other natural hazards, including tsunamis, tornadoes, and earthquakes.

  4. Effects of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita on the chemistry of bottom sediments in Lake Pontchartrain, La.: Chapter 7F in Science and the storms-the USGS response to the hurricanes of 2005

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Metre, Peter C.; Horowitz, Arthur J.; Mahler, Barbara J.; Foreman, William T.; Fuller, Christopher C.; Burkhardt, Mark R.; Elrick, Kent A.; Furlong, Edward T.; Skrobialowski, Stanley C.; Smith, James J.; Wilson, Jennifer T.; Zaugg, Stephen D.

    2007-01-01

    Concerns about the effect of pumping contaminated flood waters into Lake Pontchartrain following the hurricanes of 2005 prompted the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to sample street mud, canal-suspended sediment, and bottom sediment in Lake Pontchartain. The samples were analyzed for a wide variety of potential inorganic and organic contaminants. Results indicate that contamination of lake sediment relative to other urban lakes and to accepted sedimentquality guidelines was limited to a relatively small area offshore from the Metairie Outfall Canal (popularly known as the 17th Street Canal) and that this contamination is probably transient.

  5. Examining Dense Data Usage near the Regions with Severe Storms in All-Sky Microwave Radiance Data Assimilation and Impacts on GEOS Hurricane Analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Min-Jeong; Jin, Jianjun; McCarty, Will; El Akkraoui, Amal; Todling, Ricardo; Gelaro, Ron

    2018-01-01

    Many numerical weather prediction (NWP) centers assimilate radiances affected by clouds and precipitation from microwave sensors, with the expectation that these data can provide critical constraints on meteorological parameters in dynamically sensitive regions to make significant impacts on forecast accuracy for precipitation. The Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center assimilates all-sky microwave radiance data from various microwave sensors such as all-sky GPM Microwave Imager (GMI) radiance in the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) atmospheric data assimilation system (ADAS), which includes the GEOS atmospheric model, the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) atmospheric analysis system, and the Goddard Aerosol Assimilation System (GAAS). So far, most of NWP centers apply same large data thinning distances, that are used in clear-sky radiance data to avoid correlated observation errors, to all-sky microwave radiance data. For example, NASA GMAO is applying 145 km thinning distances for most of satellite radiance data including microwave radiance data in which all-sky approach is implemented. Even with these coarse observation data usage in all-sky assimilation approach, noticeable positive impacts from all-sky microwave data on hurricane track forecasts were identified in GEOS-5 system. The motivation of this study is based on the dynamic thinning distance method developed in our all-sky framework to use of denser data in cloudy and precipitating regions due to relatively small spatial correlations of observation errors. To investigate the benefits of all-sky microwave radiance on hurricane forecasts, several hurricane cases selected between 2016-2017 are examined. The dynamic thinning distance method is utilized in our all-sky approach to understand the sources and mechanisms to explain the benefits of all-sky microwave radiance data from various microwave radiance sensors like Advanced Microwave Sounder Unit

  6. Combined VLF and VHF lightning observations of Hurricane Rita landfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henderson, B. G.; Suszcynsky, D. M.; Wiens, K. C.; Hamlin, T.; Jeffery, C. A.; Orville, R. E.

    2009-12-01

    Hurricane Rita displayed abundant lightning in its northern eyewall as it made landfall at 0740 UTC 24 Sep 2005 near the Texas/Louisiana border. For this work, we combined VHF and VLF lightning data from Hurricane Rita, along with radar observations from Gulf Coast WSR-88D stations, for the purpose of demonstrating the combined utility of these two spectral regions for hurricane lightning monitoring. Lightning is a direct consequence of the electrification and breakdown processes that take place during the convective stages of thunderstorm development. As Rita approached the Gulf coast, the VHF lightning emissions were distinctly periodic with a period of 1.5 to 2 hours, which is consistent with the rotational period of hurricanes. VLF lightning emissions, measured by LASA and NLDN, were present in some of these VHF bursts but not all of them. At landfall, there was a significant increase in lightning emissions, accompanied by a significant convective surge observed in radar. Furthermore, VLF and VHF lightning source heights clearly increase as a function of time. The evolution of the IC/CG ratio is consistent with that seen in thunderstorms, showing a dominance of IC activity during storm development, followed by an increase in CG activity at the storm’s peak. The periodic VHF lightning events are correlated with increases in convective growth (quantified by the volume of radar echo >40 dB) above 7 km altitude. VLF can discriminate between lightning types, and in the LASA data, Rita landfall lightning activity was dominated by Narrow Bi-polar Events (NBEs)—high-energy, high-altitude, compact intra-cloud discharges. The opportunity to locate NBE lightning sources in altitude may be particularly useful in quantifying the vertical extent (strength) of the convective development and in possibly deducing vertical charge distributions.

  7. Hurricane Harvey: Infrastructure Damage Assessment of Texas' Central Gulf Coast Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mooney, W. D.; Fovenyessy, S.; Patterson, S. F.

    2017-12-01

    We report a detailed ground-based damage survey for Hurricane Harvey, the first major hurricane to make landfall along the central Texas coast since the 1970 Category 3 Hurricane Celia. Harvey, a Category 4 storm, made landfall near Rockport, Texas on August 25th, 2017 at 10 PM local time. From September 2nd to 5th we visited Rockport and 22 nearby cities to assess the severity of the damage. Nearly all damage observed occurred as a direct result of the hurricane-force winds, rather than a storm surge. This observation is in contrast to the severe damage caused by both high winds and a significant storm surge, locally 3 to 5 m in height, in the 2013 Category 5 Hurricane Haiyan, that devastated the Philippines. We have adopted a damage scale and have given an average damage score for each of the areas investigated. Our damage contour map illustrates the areal variation in damage. The damage observed was widespread with a high degree of variability. Different types of damage included: (1) fallen fences and utility poles; (2) trees with branches broken or completely snapped in half; (3) business signs that were either partially or fully destroyed; (4) partially sunken or otherwise damaged boats; (5) and sheet metal sheds either completely or partially destroyed. There was also varying degrees of damage to both residential and commercial structures. Many homes had (6) roof damage, ranging from minor damage to complete destruction of the roof and second story, and (7) siding damage, where parts or whole sections of the homes siding had been removed. The area that had the lowest average damage score was Corpus Christi, and the areas that had the highest average damage score was both Fulton and Holiday Beach. There is no simple, uniform pattern of damage distribution. Rather, the damage was scattered, revealing hot spots of areas that received more damage than the surrounding area. However, when compared to the NOAA wind swath map, all of the damage was contained within

  8. Numerical modeling of salt marsh morphological change induced by Hurricane Sandy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Kelin; Chen, Qin; Wang, Hongqing; Hartig, Ellen K.; Orton, Philip M.

    2018-01-01

    The salt marshes of Jamaica Bay serve as a recreational outlet for New York City residents, mitigate wave impacts during coastal storms, and provide habitat for critical wildlife species. Hurricanes have been recognized as one of the critical drivers of coastal wetland morphology due to their effects on hydrodynamics and sediment transport, deposition, and erosion processes. In this study, the Delft3D modeling suite was utilized to examine the effects of Hurricane Sandy (2012) on salt marsh morphology in Jamaica Bay. Observed marsh elevation change and accretion from rod Surface Elevation Tables and feldspar Marker Horizons (SET-MH) and hydrodynamic measurements during Hurricane Sandy were used to calibrate and validate the wind-waves-surge-sediment transport-morphology coupled model. The model results agreed well with in situ field measurements. The validated model was then used to detect salt marsh morphological change due to Sandy across Jamaica Bay. Model results indicate that the island-wide morphological changes in the bay's salt marshes due to Sandy were in the range of −30 mm (erosion) to +15 mm (deposition), and spatially complex and heterogeneous. The storm generated paired deposition and erosion patches at local scales. Salt marshes inside the west section of the bay showed erosion overall while marshes inside the east section showed deposition from Sandy. The net sediment amount that Sandy brought into the bay is only about 1% of the total amount of reworked sediment within the bay during the storm. Numerical experiments show that waves and vegetation played a critical role in sediment transport and associated wetland morphological change in Jamaica Bay. Furthermore, without the protection of vegetation, the marsh islands of Jamaica Bay would experience both more erosion and less accretion in coastal storms.

  9. Coastal Flooding in Florida's Big Bend Region with Application to Sea Level Rise Based on Synthetic Storms Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Scott C. Hagen Peter Bacopoulos

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Flooding is examined by comparing maximum envelopes of water against the 0.2% (= 1-in-500-year return-period flooding surface generated as part of revising the Federal Emergency Management Agency¡¦s flood insurance rate maps for Franklin, Wakulla, and Jefferson counties in Florida¡¦s Big Bend Region. The analysis condenses the number of storms to a small fraction of the original 159 used in production. The analysis is performed by assessing which synthetic storms contributed to inundation extent (the extent of inundation into the floodplain, coverage (the overall surface area of the inundated floodplain and the spatially variable 0.2% flooding surface. The results are interpreted in terms of storm attributes (pressure deficit, radius to maximum winds, translation speed, storm heading, and landfall location and the physical processes occurring within the natural system (storms surge and waves; both are contextualized against existing and new hurricane scales. The approach identifies what types of storms and storm attributes lead to what types of inundation, as measured in terms of extent and coverage, in Florida¡¦s Big Bend Region and provides a basis in the identification of a select subset of synthetic storms for studying the impact of sea level rise. The sea level rise application provides a clear contrast between a dynamic approach versus that of a static approach.

  10. Estimating hypothetical present-day insured losses for past intense hurricanes in the French Antilles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thornton, James; Desarthe, Jérémy; Naulin, Jean-Philippe; Garnier, Emmanuel; Liu, Ye; Moncoulon, David

    2015-04-01

    On the islands of the French Antilles, the period for which systematic meteorological measurements and historic event loss data are available is short relative to the recurrence intervals of very intense, damaging hurricanes. Additionally, the value of property at risk changes through time. As such, the recent past can only provide limited insight into potential losses from extreme storms in coming years. Here we present some research that seeks to overcome, as far as is possible, the limitations of record length in assessing the possible impacts of near-future hurricanes on insured properties. First, using the archives of the French overseas departments (which included administrative and weather reports, inventories of damage to houses, crops and trees, as well as some meteorological observations after 1950) we reconstructed the spatial patterns of hazard intensity associated with three historical events. They are: i) the 1928 Hurricane (Guadeloupe), ii) Hurricane Betsy (1956, Guadeloupe) and iii) Hurricane David (1979, Martinique). These events were selected because all were damaging, and the information available on each is rich. Then, using a recently developed catastrophe model for hurricanes affecting Guadeloupe, Martinique, Saint-Barthélemy and Saint-Martin, we simulated the hypothetical losses to insured properties that the reconstructed events might cause if they were to reoccur today. The model simulated damage due to wind, rainfall-induced flooding and storm surge flooding. These 'what if' scenarios provided an initial indication of the potential present-day exposure of the insurance industry to intense hurricanes. However, we acknowledge that historical events are unlikely to repeat exactly. We therefore extended the study by producing a stochastic event catalogue containing a large number of synthetic but plausible hurricane events. Instrumental data were used as a basis for event generation, but importantly the statistical methods we applied permit

  11. Worldwide historical hurricane tracks from 1848 through the previous hurricane season

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This Historical Hurricane Tracks web site provides visualizations of storm tracks derived from the 6-hourly (0000, 0600, 1200, 1800 UTC) center locations and...

  12. Geotechnical Impacts of Hurricane Harvey Along the Texas, USA Coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smallegan, S. M.; Stark, N.; Jafari, N.; Ravichandran, N.; Shafii, I.; Bassal, P.; Figlus, J.

    2017-12-01

    As part of the NSF-funded Geotechnical Extreme Events Reconnaissance (GEER) Association response to Hurricane Harvey, a team of engineers and scientists mobilized to the coastal cities of Texas, USA from 1 to 5 September 2017. Damage to coastal and riverine structures due to erosion by storm surge, waves, and coastal and riverine flooding was assessed in a wide coastal zone between Corpus Christi and Galveston. Making initial landfall near Rockport, Texas on 26 August 2017, Hurricane Harvey was classified as a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale with wind speeds exceeding 130 mph and an atmospheric pressure of 938 mbar. The storm stalled over the Houston area, pouring 40 inches of rain on an area encompassing more than 3,000 square miles. Hurricane Harvey, which remained a named storm for 117 hours after initial landfall, slowly moved east into the Gulf of Mexico and made final landfall near Cameron, Louisiana on 30 August. The GEER team surveyed sixteen main sites, extending from Mustang Island in the southwest to Galveston in the northeast and as far inland as Rosenburg. In Port Aransas, beach erosion and undercutting along a beach access road near Aransas Pass were observed. Due to several tide gauge failures in this area, the nearest NOAA tide gauge (#8775870 near Corpus Christi) was used to estimate water levels of 1.35 m, approximately 1.0 m above the predicted tide. In Holiday Beach, anchored retaining walls were inundated, causing backside scour along the entire length and exposing the sheetpile wall anchors. Along the Colorado River at the Highway 35 bridge near Bay City, active riverbank failure was observed and a sheet pile wall was found collapsed. Significant sediment deposits lined the vegetated riverbanks. A USGS stream gage recorded gage heights greater than 45 ft, exceeding the flood stage of 44 ft. Fronting a rubblemound seawall in Surfside Beach, a runnel and ridge formation was observed. Nearby at San Luis Pass, infilled scour

  13. Hurricane risk management and climate information gatekeeping in southeast Florida

    Science.gov (United States)

    Treuer, G.; Bolson, J.

    2013-12-01

    Tropical storms provide fresh water necessary for healthy economies and health ecosystems. Hurricanes, massive tropical storms, threaten catastrophic flooding and wind damage. Sea level rise exacerbates flooding risks from rain and storm surge for coastal communities. Climate change adaptation measures to manage this risk must be implemented locally, but actions at other levels of government and by neighboring communities impact the options available to local municipalities. When working on adaptation local decision makers must balance multiple types of risk: physical or scientifically described risks, legal risks, and political risks. Generating usable or actionable climate science is a goal of the academic climate community. To do this we need to expand our analysis to include types of risk that constrain the use of objective science. Integrating physical, legal, and political risks is difficult. Each requires specific expertise and uses unique language. An opportunity exists to study how local decision makers manage all three on a daily basis and how their risk management impacts climate resilience for communities and ecosystems. South Florida's particular vulnerabilities make it an excellent case study. Besides physical vulnerabilities (low elevation, intense coastal development, frequent hurricanes, compromised ecosystems) it also has unique legal and political challenges. Federal and state property rights protections create legal risks for government action that restricts land use to promote climate adaptation. Also, a lack of cases that deal with climate change creates uncertainty about the nature of these legal risks. Politically Florida is divided ideologically and geographically. The regions in the southeast which are most vulnerable are predominantly Hispanic and under-represented at the state level, where leadership on climate change is functionally nonexistent. It is conventional wisdom amongst water managers in Florida that little climate adaptation

  14. Restoration of freshwater Cypress-Tupelo Wetlands in the southeastern U.S. following severe hurricanes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conner, William H.; Krauss, Ken W.; Shaffer, Gary P.

    2012-01-01

    Freshwater forested wetlands commonly occur in the lower Coastal Plain of the southeastern US with baldcypress (Taxodium distichum [L.] L.C. Rich.) and water tupelo (Nyssa aquatica L.) often being the dominant trees. Extensive anthropogenic activities combined with eustatic sea-level rise and land subsidence have caused widespread hydrological changes in many of these forests. In addition, hurricanes (a common, although aperiodic occurrence) cause wide-spread damage from wind and storm surge events, with impacts exacerbated by human-mediated coastal modifications (e.g., dredging, navigation channels, etc.). Restoration of forested wetlands in coastal areas is important because emergent canopies can greatly diminish wind penetration, thereby reducing the wind stress available to generate surface waves and storm surge that are the major cause of damage to coastal ecosystems and their surrounding communities. While there is an overall paucity of large-scale restoration efforts within coastal forested wetlands of the southeastern US, we have determined important characteristics that should drive future efforts. Restoration efforts may be enhanced considerably if coupled with hydrological enhancement, such as freshwater, sediment, or sewage wastewater diversions. Large-scale restoration of coastal forests should be attempted to create a landscape capable of minimizing storm impacts and maximizing wetland sustainability in the face of climate change. Planting is the preferred regeneration method in many forested wetland sites because hydrological alterations have increased flooding, and planted seedlings must be protected from herbivory to enhance establishment. Programs identifying salt tolerance in coastal forest tree species need to be continued to help increase resilience to repetitive storm surge events.

  15. Investigation of long-term hurricane activity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nguyen, B.M.; Van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M.

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents a new approach of applying numerical methods to model storm processes. A storm empirical track technique is utilized to simulate the full tracks of hurricanes, starting with their initial points over the sea and ending with their landfall locations or final dissipations. The

  16. Large-scale Vertical Motions, Intensity Change and Precipitation Associated with Land falling Hurricane Katrina over the Gulf of Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reddy, S. R.; Kwembe, T.; Zhang, Z.

    2016-12-01

    We investigated the possible relationship between the large- scale heat fluxes and intensity change associated with the landfall of Hurricane Katrina. After reaching the category 5 intensity on August 28th , 2005 over the central Gulf of Mexico, Katrina weekend to category 3 before making landfall (August 29th , 2005) on the Louisiana coast with the maximum sustained winds of over 110 knots. We also examined the vertical motions associated with the intensity change of the hurricane. The data for Convective Available Potential Energy for water vapor (CAPE), sea level pressure and wind speed were obtained from the Atmospheric Soundings, and NOAA National Hurricane Center (NHC), respectively for the period August 24 to September 3, 2005. We also computed vertical motions using CAPE values. The study showed that the large-scale heat fluxes reached maximum (7960W/m2) with the central pressure 905mb. The Convective Available Potential Energy and the vertical motions peaked 3-5 days before landfall. The large atmospheric vertical motions associated with the land falling hurricane Katrina produced severe weather including thunderstorm, tornadoes, storm surge and floods Numerical model (WRF/ARW) with data assimilations have been used for this research to investigate the model's performances on hurricane tracks and intensities associated with the hurricane Katrina, which began to strengthen until reaching Category 5 on 28 August 2005. The model was run on a doubly nested domain centered over the central Gulf of Mexico, with grid spacing of 90 km and 30 km for 6 hr periods, from August 28th to August 30th. The model output was compared with the observations and is capable of simulating the surface features, intensity change and track associated with hurricane Katrina.

  17. Barrier-island and estuarine-wetland physical-change assessment after Hurricane Sandy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plant, Nathaniel G.; Smith, Kathryn E.L.; Passeri, Davina L.; Smith, Christopher G.; Bernier, Julie C.

    2018-04-03

    IntroductionThe Nation’s eastern coast is fringed by beaches, dunes, barrier islands, wetlands, and bluffs. These natural coastal barriers provide critical benefits and services, and can mitigate the impact of storms, erosion, and sea-level rise on our coastal communities. Waves and storm surge resulting from Hurricane Sandy, which made landfall along the New Jersey coast on October 29, 2012, impacted the U.S. coastline from North Carolina to Massachusetts, including Assateague Island, Maryland and Virginia, and the Delmarva coastal system. The storm impacts included changes in topography, coastal morphology, geology, hydrology, environmental quality, and ecosystems.In the immediate aftermath of the storm, light detection and ranging (lidar) surveys from North Carolina to New York documented storm impacts to coastal barriers, providing a baseline to assess vulnerability of the reconfigured coast. The focus of much of the existing coastal change assessment is along the ocean-facing coastline; however, much of the coastline affected by Hurricane Sandy includes the estuarine-facing coastlines of barrier-island systems. Specifically, the wetland and back-barrier shorelines experienced substantial change as a result of wave action and storm surge that occurred during Hurricane Sandy (see also USGS photograph, http://coastal.er.usgs.gov/hurricanes/sandy/photo-comparisons/virginia.php). Assessing physical shoreline and wetland change (land loss as well as land gains) can help to determine the resiliency of wetland systems that protect adjacent habitat, shorelines, and communities.To address storm impacts to wetlands, a vulnerability assessment should describe both long-term (for example, several decades) and short-term (for example, Sandy’s landfall) extent and character of the interior wetlands and the back-barrier-shoreline changes. The objective of this report is to describe several new wetland vulnerability assessments based on the detailed physical changes

  18. A Look Inside Hurricane Alma

    Science.gov (United States)

    2002-01-01

    Hurricane season in the eastern Pacific started off with a whimper late last month as Alma, a Category 2 hurricane, slowly made its way up the coast of Baja California, packing sustained winds of 110 miles per hour and gusts of 135 miles per hour. The above image of the hurricane was acquired on May 29, 2002, and displays the rainfall rates occurring within the storm. Click the image above to see an animated data visualization (3.8 MB) of the interior of Hurricane Alma. The images of the clouds seen at the beginning of the movie were retrieved from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association's (NOAA's) Geostationary Orbiting Environmental Satellite (GOES) network. As the movie continues, the clouds are peeled away to reveal an image of rainfall levels in the hurricane. The rainfall data were obtained by the Precipitation Radar aboard NASA's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite. The Precipitation Radar bounces radio waves off of clouds to retrieve a reading of the number of large, rain-sized droplets within the clouds. Using these data, scientists can tell how much precipitation is occurring within and beneath a hurricane. In the movie, yellow denotes areas where 0.5 inches of rain is falling per hour, green denotes 1 inch per hour, and red denotes over 2 inches per hour. (Please note that high resolution still images of Hurricane Alma are available in the NASA Visible Earth in TIFF format.) Image and animation courtesy Lori Perkins, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Scientific Visualization Studio

  19. Physical aspects of Hurricane Hugo in Puerto Rico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scatena, F.N.; Larsen, Matthew C.

    1991-01-01

    On 18 September 1989 the western part ofHurricane Hugo crossed eastern Puerto Rico and the Luquillo Experimental Forest (LEF). Storm-facing slopes on the northeastern part of the island that were within 15 km of the eye and received greater than 200 mm of rain were most affected by the storm. In the LEF and nearby area, recurrence intervals associated with Hurricane Hugo were 50 yr for wind velocity, 10 to 31 yr for stream discharge, and 5 yr for rainfall intensity. To compare the magnitudes of the six hurricanes to pass over PuertoRico since 1899, 3 indices were developed using the standardized values of the product of: the maximum sustained wind speed at San Juan squared and storm duration; the square of the product of the maximum sustained wind velocity at San Juan and the ratio of the distance between the hurricane eye and San Juan to the distance between the eye and percentage of average annual rainfall delivered by the storm. Based on these indices, HurricaneHugo was of moderate intensity. However, because of the path of Hurricane Hugo, only one of these six storms (the 1932 storm) caused more damage to the LEF than Hurricane Hugo. Hurricanes of Hugo's magnitude are estimated to pass over the LEF once every 50-60 yr, on average. 

  20. Coastal ecosystems for protection against storm surge

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Mascarenhas, A.

    and infrastructure in single catastrophe exceeded Rs. 2750 crore. Economic loss is thus prohibitive and hence unsustainable. This paper acknowledges the intrinsic protective value of coastal sand dunes, vegetation and wetlands as a functional natural defence...

  1. Modeling Storm Surges Using Discontinuous Galerkin Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-06-01

    layer non-reflecting boundary condition (NRBC) on the right wall of the model. A NRBC is when an artificial boundary , B, is created, which truncates the... applications ,” Journal of Computational Physics, 2004. [30] P. L. Butzer and R. Weis, “On the lax equivalence theorem equipped with orders,” Journal of...closer to the shoreline. In our simulation, we also learned of the effects spurious waves can have on the results. Due to boundary conditions, a

  2. Centrifugal Compressor Surge Controlled

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skoch, Gary J.

    2003-01-01

    It shows the variation in compressor mass flow with time as the mass flow is throttled to drive the compressor into surge. Surge begins where wide variations in mass flow occur. Air injection is then turned on to bring about a recovery from the initial surge condition and stabilize the compressor. The throttle is closed further until surge is again initiated. Air injection is increased to again recover from the surge condition and stabilize the compressor.

  3. Tide-surge interaction in the English Channel

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Idier

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The English Channel is characterised by strong tidal currents and a wide tidal range, such that their influence on surges is expected to be non-negligible. In order to better assess storm surges in this zone, tide-surge interactions are investigated. A preliminary data analysis on hourly surges indicates some preferential times of occurrence of large storm surges at rising tide, especially in Dunkerque. To examine this further, a numerical modelling approach is chosen, based on the 2DH shallow-water model (MARS. The surges are computed both with and without tide interaction. For the two selected events (the November 2007 North Sea and March 2008 Atlantic storms, it appears that the instantaneous tide-surge interaction is seen to be non-negligible in the eastern half of the English Channel, reaching values of 74 cm (i.e. 50% of the same event maximal storm surge in the Dover Strait for the studied cases. This interaction decreases in westerly direction. In the risk-analysis community in France, extreme water levels have been determined assuming skew surges and tide as independent. The same hydrodynamic model is used to investigate this dependence in the English Channel. Simple computations are performed with the same meteorological forcing, while varying the tidal amplitude, and the skew surge differences DSS are analysed. Skew surges appear to be tide-dependent, with negligible values of DSS (<0.05 m over a large portion of the English Channel, although reaching several tens of centimetres in some locations (e.g. the Isle of Wight and Dover Strait.

  4. Measuring and building resilience after big storms: Lessons learned from Super-Storm Sandy for the Harvey, Irma, Jose, and Maria coasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murdoch, P. S.; Penn, K. M.; Taylor, S. M.; Subramanian, B.; Bennett, R.

    2017-12-01

    As we recover from recent large storms, we need information to support increased environmental and socio-economic resilience of the Nation's coasts. Defining baseline conditions, tracking effects of mitigation actions, and measuring the uncertainty of resilience to future disturbance are essential so that the best management practices can be determined. The US Dept. of the Interior invested over $787 million dollars in 2013 to understand and mitigate coastal storm vulnerabilities and enhance resilience of the Northeast coast following Super-Storm Sandy. Several lessons-learned from that investment have direct application to mitigation and restoration needs following Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, Jose and Maria. New models of inundation, overwash, and erosion, developed during the Sandy projects have already been applied to coastlines before and after these recent storms. Results from wetland, beach, back-bay, estuary, and built-environment projects improved models of inundation and erosion from surge and waves. Tests of nature-based infrastructure for mitigating coastal disturbance yielded new concepts for best-practices. Ecological and socio-economic measurements established for detecting disturbance and tracking recovery provide baseline data critical to early detection of vulnerabilities. The Sandy lessons and preliminary applications on the recent storms could help define best-resilience practices before more costly mitigation or restoration efforts are required.

  5. Wind vs Water in Hurricanes: The Challenge of Multi-peril Hazard Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Powell, M. D.

    2017-12-01

    With the advancing threat of Sea Level Rise much of the U. S. is in danger of falling into the "protection gap". Residential property flood risk is not yet covered by the insurance market. Many coastal properties are not paying into the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) at premiums commensurate with the risk. This is exasperated by the program being deep in debt, despite only covering a fraction of the potential loss, while windstorm insurance covers up to replacement value. This results in a battle that benefits nobody. Any significant hurricane will include both wind and storm surge perils at the same time and any coastal property has to contend with the risk of damage by both. If you have extensive flood damage your wind storm policy might deny your claim and your flood policy (if you even have one) will in most cases be constrained to a $250,000 limit. Bring on the litigators! Some homeowners will claim that the wind destroyed the home first and then it was carried away by flood waters or pulverized by waves. Insurers might respond that the storm surge did all the damage and deny the claim. We've seen this already following Hurricane Katrina in 2005, and Hurricane Ike in 2008, with thousands of litigation claims and a cottage industry of scientists serving as expert witnesses on both sides of the aisle. Congress responded in 2012 with the Coastal Act, which provided an "unfunded mandate" directing NOAA to provide wind and water level data to FEMA for input to their "Coastal Formula" for attributing loss to wind and water. The results of the formula would then limit the amount paid by the NFIP by subtracting out the wind loss portion. The Texas Windstorm Insurance Association (TWIA) went further by assembling a panel of experts to recommend guidelines for how the state should respond to future hurricane impacting properties on the Texas coast. The expert panel report was released in April of 2016, and TWIA is currently developing a comprehensive

  6. Hurricane coastal flood analysis using multispectral spectral images

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ogashawara, I.; Ferreira, C.; Curtarelli, M. P.

    2013-12-01

    Flooding is one of the main hazards caused by extreme events such as hurricanes and tropical storms. Therefore, flood maps are a crucial tool to support policy makers, environmental managers and other government agencies for emergency management, disaster recovery and risk reduction planning. However traditional flood mapping methods rely heavily on the interpolation of hydrodynamic models results, and most recently, the extensive collection of field data. These methods are time-consuming, labor intensive, and costly. Efficient and fast response alternative methods should be developed in order to improve flood mapping, and remote sensing has been proved as a valuable tool for this application. Our goal in this paper is to introduce a novel technique based on spectral analysis in order to aggregate knowledge and information to map coastal flood areas. For this purpose we used the Normalized Diference Water Index (NDWI) which was derived from two the medium resolution LANDSAT/TM 5 surface reflectance product from the LANDSAT climate data record (CDR). This product is generated from specialized software called Landsat Ecosystem Disturbance Adaptive Processing System (LEDAPS). We used the surface reflectance products acquired before and after the passage of Hurricane Ike for East Texas in September of 2008. We used as end member a classification of estimated flooded area based on the United States Geological Survey (USGS) mobile storm surge network that was deployed for Hurricane Ike. We used a dataset which consisted of 59 water levels recording stations. The estimated flooded area was delineated interpolating the maximum surge in each location using a spline with barriers method with high tension and a 30 meter Digital Elevation Model (DEM) from the National Elevation Dataset (NED). Our results showed that, in the flooded area, the NDWI values decreased after the hurricane landfall on average from 0.38 to 0.18 and the median value decreased from 0.36 to 0.2. However

  7. Ocean-atmosphere dynamics during Hurricane Ida and Nor'Ida: An application of the coupled ocean-;atmosphere–wave–sediment transport (COAWST) modeling system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olabarrieta, Maitane; Warner, John C.; Armstrong, Brandy N.; Zambon, Joseph B.; He, Ruoying

    2012-01-01

    The coupled ocean–atmosphere–wave–sediment transport (COAWST) modeling system was used to investigate atmosphere–ocean–wave interactions in November 2009 during Hurricane Ida and its subsequent evolution to Nor'Ida, which was one of the most costly storm systems of the past two decades. One interesting aspect of this event is that it included two unique atmospheric extreme conditions, a hurricane and a nor'easter storm, which developed in regions with different oceanographic characteristics. Our modeled results were compared with several data sources, including GOES satellite infrared data, JASON-1 and JASON-2 altimeter data, CODAR measurements, and wave and tidal information from the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) and the National Tidal Database. By performing a series of numerical runs, we were able to isolate the effect of the interaction terms between the atmosphere (modeled with Weather Research and Forecasting, the WRF model), the ocean (modeled with Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS)), and the wave propagation and generation model (modeled with Simulating Waves Nearshore (SWAN)). Special attention was given to the role of the ocean surface roughness. Three different ocean roughness closure models were analyzed: DGHQ (which is based on wave age), TY2001 (which is based on wave steepness), and OOST (which considers both the effects of wave age and steepness). Including the ocean roughness in the atmospheric module improved the wind intensity estimation and therefore also the wind waves, surface currents, and storm surge amplitude. For example, during the passage of Hurricane Ida through the Gulf of Mexico, the wind speeds were reduced due to wave-induced ocean roughness, resulting in better agreement with the measured winds. During Nor'Ida, including the wave-induced surface roughness changed the form and dimension of the main low pressure cell, affecting the intensity and direction of the winds. The combined wave age- and wave steepness

  8. Ocean-atmosphere dynamics during Hurricane Ida and Nor'Ida: An application of the coupled ocean-atmosphere-wave-sediment transport (COAWST) modeling system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olabarrieta, Maitane; Warner, John C.; Armstrong, Brandy N.; Zambon, Joseph B.; He, Ruoying

    2012-01-01

    The coupled ocean–atmosphere–wave–sediment transport (COAWST) modeling system was used to investigate atmosphere–ocean–wave interactions in November 2009 during Hurricane Ida and its subsequent evolution to Nor’Ida, which was one of the most costly storm systems of the past two decades. One interesting aspect of this event is that it included two unique atmospheric extreme conditions, a hurricane and a nor’easter storm, which developed in regions with different oceanographic characteristics. Our modeled results were compared with several data sources, including GOES satellite infrared data, JASON-1 and JASON-2 altimeter data, CODAR measurements, and wave and tidal information from the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) and the National Tidal Database. By performing a series of numerical runs, we were able to isolate the effect of the interaction terms between the atmosphere (modeled with Weather Research and Forecasting, the WRF model), the ocean (modeled with Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS)), and the wave propagation and generation model (modeled with Simulating Waves Nearshore (SWAN)). Special attention was given to the role of the ocean surface roughness. Three different ocean roughness closure models were analyzed: DGHQ (which is based on wave age), TY2001 (which is based on wave steepness), and OOST (which considers both the effects of wave age and steepness). Including the ocean roughness in the atmospheric module improved the wind intensity estimation and therefore also the wind waves, surface currents, and storm surge amplitude. For example, during the passage of Hurricane Ida through the Gulf of Mexico, the wind speeds were reduced due to wave-induced ocean roughness, resulting in better agreement with the measured winds. During Nor’Ida, including the wave-induced surface roughness changed the form and dimension of the main low pressure cell, affecting the intensity and direction of the winds. The combined wave age- and wave steepness

  9. Dynamic inundation mapping of Hurricane Harvey flooding in the Houston metro area using hyper-resolution modeling and quantitative image reanalysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noh, S. J.; Lee, J. H.; Lee, S.; Zhang, Y.; Seo, D. J.

    2017-12-01

    Hurricane Harvey was one of the most extreme weather events in Texas history and left significant damages in the Houston and adjoining coastal areas. To understand better the relative impact to urban flooding of extreme amount and spatial extent of rainfall, unique geography, land use and storm surge, high-resolution water modeling is necessary such that natural and man-made components are fully resolved. In this presentation, we reconstruct spatiotemporal evolution of inundation during Hurricane Harvey using hyper-resolution modeling and quantitative image reanalysis. The two-dimensional urban flood model used is based on dynamic wave approximation and 10 m-resolution terrain data, and is forced by the radar-based multisensor quantitative precipitation estimates. The model domain includes Buffalo, Brays, Greens and White Oak Bayous in Houston. The model is simulated using hybrid parallel computing. To evaluate dynamic inundation mapping, we combine various qualitative crowdsourced images and video footages with LiDAR-based terrain data.

  10. JLAB Hurricane recovery

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A. Hutton; D. Arenius; J. Benesch; S. Chattopadhyay; E. F. Daly; O. Garza; R. Kazimi; R. Lauzi; L. Merminga; W. Merz; R. Nelson; W. Oren; M. Poelker; P. Powers; J. Preble; V. Ganni; C. R. Reece; R. Rimmer; M. Spata; S. Suhring

    2004-01-01

    Hurricane Isabel, originally a Category 5 storm, arrived at Jefferson Lab on September 18, 2003 with winds of only 75 mph, creating little direct damage to the infrastructure. However, electric power was lost for four days allowing the superconducting cryomodules to warm up and causing a total loss of the liquid helium. The subsequent recovery of the cryomodules and the impact of the considerable amount of opportunistic preventive maintenance provides important lessons for all accelerator complexes, not only those with superconducting elements. The details of how the recovery process was structured and the resulting improvement in accelerator availability will be discussed in detail

  11. Examining Hurricane Track Length and Stage Duration Since 1980

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fandrich, K. M.; Pennington, D.

    2017-12-01

    Each year, tropical systems impact thousands of people worldwide. Current research shows a correlation between the intensity and frequency of hurricanes and the changing climate. However, little is known about other prominent hurricane features. This includes information about hurricane track length (the total distance traveled from tropical depression through a hurricane's final category assignment) and how this distance may have changed with time. Also unknown is the typical duration of a hurricane stage, such as tropical storm to category one, and if the time spent in each stage has changed in recent decades. This research aims to examine changes in hurricane stage duration and track lengths for the 319 storms in NOAA's National Ocean Service Hurricane Reanalysis dataset that reached Category 2 - 5 from 1980 - 2015. Based on evident ocean warming, it is hypothesized that a general increase in track length with time will be detected, thus modern hurricanes are traveling a longer distance than past hurricanes. It is also expected that stage durations are decreasing with time so that hurricanes mature faster than in past decades. For each storm, coordinates are acquired at 4-times daily intervals throughout its duration and track lengths are computed for each 6-hour period. Total track lengths are then computed and storms are analyzed graphically and statistically by category for temporal track length changes. The stage durations of each storm are calculated as the time difference between two consecutive stages. Results indicate that average track lengths for Cat 2 and 3 hurricanes are increasing through time. These findings show that these hurricanes are traveling a longer distance than earlier Cat 2 and 3 hurricanes. In contrast, average track lengths for Cat 4 and 5 hurricanes are decreasing through time, showing less distance traveled than earlier decades. Stage durations for all Cat 2, 4 and 5 storms decrease through the decades but Cat 3 storms show a

  12. Nephrologic Impact of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in Areas Not Directly Affected.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dossabhoy, Neville R; Qadri, Mashood; Beal, Lauren M

    2015-01-01

    Hurricanes Katrina and Rita resulted in enormous loss of life and disrupted the delivery of health care in areas affected by them. In causing mass movements of patients, natural disasters can overwhelm the resources of nephrology communities in areas not suffering direct damage. The following largely personal account evaluates the impact these hurricanes had upon the nephrology community, patients and health care providers alike, in areas not directly affected by the storms. Mass evacuation of hundreds of dialysis patients to surrounding areas overwhelmed the capacity of local hemodialysis centers. Non-availability of medical records in patients arriving without a supply of their routine medications led to confusion and sub-optimal treatment of conditions such as hypertension and congestive heart failure. Availability of cadaveric organs for transplantation was reduced in the surrounding areas, as the usual lines of communication and transportation were severed for several weeks. All of these issues led to prolong waiting times for patients on the transplant list. The hurricanes severely disrupted usual supply lines of medications to hospitals; certain rare conditions may be seen in higher numbers as a result of the shortages induced. We present the interesting surge in cases of acute kidney injury secondary to use of intravenous immune globulin.

  13. Hurricane Isabel gives accelerators a severe test

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Swapan Chattopadhyay

    2004-01-01

    Hurricane Isabel was at category five--the most violent on the Saffir-Simpson scale of hurricane strength--when it began threatening the central Atlantic seaboard of the US. Over the course of several days, precautions against the extreme weather conditions were taken across the Jefferson Lab site in south-east Virginia. On 18 September 2003, when Isabel struck North Carolina's Outer Banks and moved northward, directly across the region around the laboratory, the storm was still quite destructive, albeit considerably reduced in strength. The flood surge and trees felled by wind substantially damaged or even devastated buildings and homes, including many belonging to Jefferson Lab staff members. For the laboratory itself, Isabel delivered an unplanned and severe challenge in another form: a power outage that lasted nearly three-and-a-half days, and which severely tested the robustness of Jefferson Lab's two superconducting machines, the Continuous Electron Beam Accelerator Facility (CEBAF) and the superconducting radiofrequency ''driver'' accelerator of the laboratory's free-electron laser. Robustness matters greatly for science at a time when microwave superconducting linear accelerators (linacs) are not only being considered, but in some cases already being built for projects such as neutron sources, rare-isotope accelerators, innovative light sources and TeV-scale electron-positron linear colliders. Hurricane Isabel interrupted a several-week-long maintenance shutdown of CEBAF, which serves nuclear and particle physics and represents the world's pioneering large-scale implementation of superconducting radiofrequency (SRF) technology. The racetrack-shaped machine is actually a pair of 500-600 MeV SRF linacs interconnected by recirculation arc beamlines. CEBAF delivers simultaneous beams at up to 6 GeV to three experimental halls. An imminent upgrade will double the energy to 12 GeV and add an extra hall for ''quark confinement'' studies. On a smaller scale

  14. Teacher Guidelines for Helping Students after a Hurricane

    Science.gov (United States)

    National Child Traumatic Stress Network, 2013

    2013-01-01

    Being in a hurricane can be very frightening, and the days, weeks, and months following the storm can be very stressful. Most families recover over time, especially with the support of relatives, friends, and their community. But different families may have different experiences during and after a hurricane, and how long it takes them to recover…

  15. Initial estimates of hurricane Katrina impacts of Mississippi gulf coast forest resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patrick A. Glass; Sonja N. Oswalt

    2007-01-01

    Hurricane Katrina pummeled the Gulf Coast of Mississippi on August 29, 2005. The eye wall of the storm passed directly over Hancock and Pearl River Counties. Harrison, Jackson, Stone, and George Counties on the windward side of the hurricane's path sustained severe damage before the storm's strength dissipated as it moved farther inland (fig. 1).

  16. Damage to offshore infrastructure in the Gulf of Mexico by hurricanes Katrina and Rita

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cruz, A. M.; Krausmann, E.

    2009-04-01

    and occurred on both fixed and floating platforms. The total number of pipelines damaged by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita as of May 1, 2006, was 457. Pipeline damage was mostly caused by damage or failure of the host platform or its development and production piping, the impact of dragging and displaced objects, and pipeline interaction at a crossing. Damage to pipelines was a major contributing factor in delaying start up of offshore oil and gas production. During our analysis of the NRC database we identified 611 reported hazardous-materials releases directly attributed to offshore platforms and pipelines affected by the two hurricanes. There were twice as many releases during Hurricane Katrina than during Rita; 80% or more of the releases reported in the NRC database occurred from platforms. Our analysis suggests that the majority of releases were petroleum products, such as crude oil and condensate, followed by natural gas. In both Katrina and Rita, releases were more likely in the front, right quadrant of the storm. Storm-surge values were highest closer to the coastline. This may help explain the higher number of releases in shallow waters. The higher number of hazardous-materials releases from platforms during Katrina may partly be attributed to the higher wind speeds for this storm as it approached land.

  17. Extraction of lidar-based dune-crest elevations for use in examining the vulnerability of beaches to inundation during hurricanes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stockdon, H.F.; Doran, K.S.; Sallenger, A.H.

    2009-01-01

    The morphology of coastal sand dunes plays an important role in determining how a beach will respond to a hurricane. Accurate measurements of dune height and position are essential for assessing the vulnerability of beaches to extreme coastal change during future landfalls. Lidar topographic surveys provide rapid, accurate, high-resolution datasets for identifying the location, position, and morphology of coastal sand dunes over large stretches of coast. An algorithm has been developed for identification of the crest of the most seaward sand dune that defines the landward limit of the beach system. Based on changes in beach slope along cross-shore transects of lidar data, dune elevation and location can automatically be extracted every few meters along the coastline. Dune elevations in conjunction with storm-induced water levels can be used to predict the type of coastal response (e.g., beach erosion, dune erosion, overwash, or inundation) that may be expected during hurricane landfall. The vulnerability of the beach system at Fire Island National Seashore in New York to the most extreme of these changes, inundation, is assessed by comparing lidar-derived dune elevations to modeled wave setup and storm surge height. The vulnerability of the beach system to inundation during landfall of a Category 3 hurricane is shown to be spatially variable because of longshore variations in dune height (mean elevation 5.44 m, standard deviation 1.32 m). Hurricane-induced mean water levels exceed dune elevations along 70 of the coastal park, making these locations more vulnerable to inundation during a Category 3 storm. ?? 2009 Coastal Education and Research Foundation.

  18. Initial management of hospital evacuations caused by Hurricane Rita: a systematic investigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Downey, Erin L; Andress, Knox; Schultz, Carl H

    2013-06-01

    Hurricanes remain a major threat to hospitals throughout the world. The authors attempted to identify the planning areas that impact hospital management of evacuations and the challenges faced when sheltering-in-place. This observational, retrospective cohort study examined acute care institutions from one hospital system impacted by Hurricane Rita in 2005. Investigators used a standardized survey instrument and interview process, previously used in the hospital evacuation context, to examine hospitals' initial internal situational awareness and subsequent decision making that resulted in evacuation due to Hurricane Rita. Participants from each hospital included representatives from senior leadership and clinical and nonclinical staff that comprised the Incident Management Team (IMT). The main measured outcomes were responses to 95 questions contained in the survey. Seven of ten eligible hospitals participated in the study. All facilities evacuated the sickest patients first. The most significant factors prompting evacuation were the issuing of mandatory evacuation orders, storm dynamics (category, projected path, storm surge), and loss of regional communications. Hospitals that sheltered-in-place experienced staff shortages, interruptions to electrical power, and loss of water supplies. Three fully-evacuated institutions experienced understaffing of 40%-60%, and four hospitals sustained depressed staffing levels for over four weeks. Five hospitals lost electricity for a mean of 4.8 days (range .5-11 days). All facilities continued to receive patients to their Emergency Departments (EDs) while conducting their own evacuation. Hospital EDs should plan for continuous patient arrival during evacuation. Emergency Operation Plans (EOPs) that anticipate challenges associated with evacuation will help to maximize initial decision making and management during a crisis situation. Hospitals that shelter-in-place face critical shortages and must provide independent patient

  19. Hydrologic aspects of Hurricane Hugo in South Carolina, September 1989

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuck-Kolben, R. E.; Cherry, R.N.

    1995-01-01

    Hurricane Hugo, with winds in excess of 135 miles per hour(mi/h), made landfall near Charleston, S.C., early on the morning of September 22, 1989. It was the most destructive hurricane ever experienced in South Carolina. The storm caused 35 deaths and $7 billion in property damage in South Carolina (Purvis, 1990).This report documents some hydrologic effects of Hurricane Hugo along the South Carolina coast. The report includes maps showing storm-tide stage and profiles of the maximum storm-tide stages along the outer coast. Storm-tide stage frequency information is presented and changes in beach morphology and water quality of coastal streams resulting from the storm are described.

  20. Sedimentary and Vegetative Impacts of Hurricane Irma to Coastal Wetland Ecosystems across Southwest Florida

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moyer, R. P.; Khan, N.; Radabaugh, K.; Engelhart, S. E.; Smoak, J. M.; Horton, B.; Rosenheim, B. E.; Kemp, A.; Chappel, A. R.; Schafer, C.; Jacobs, J. A.; Dontis, E. E.; Lynch, J.; Joyse, K.; Walker, J. S.; Halavik, B. T.; Bownik, M.

    2017-12-01

    Since 2014, our collaborative group has been working in coastal marshes and mangroves across Southwest Florida, including Tampa Bay, Charlotte Harbor, Ten Thousand Islands, Biscayne Bay, and the lower Florida Keys. All existing field sites were located within 50 km of Hurricane Irma's eye path, with a few sites in the Lower Florida Keys and Naples/Ten Thousand Islands region suffering direct eyewall hits. As a result, we have been conducting storm-impact and damage assessments at these locations with the primary goal of understanding how major hurricanes contribute to and/or modify the sedimentary record of mangroves and salt marshes. We have also assessed changes to the vegetative structure of the mangrove forests at each site. Preliminary findings indicate a reduction in mangrove canopy cover from 70-90% pre-storm, to 30-50% post-Irma, and a reduction in tree height of approximately 1.2 m. Sedimentary deposits consisting of fine carbonate mud up to 12 cm thick were imported into the mangroves of the lower Florida Keys, Biscayne Bay, and the Ten Thousand Islands. Import of siliciclastic mud up to 5 cm thick was observed in Charlotte Harbor. In addition to fine mud, all sites had imported tidal wrack consisting of a mixed seagrass and mangrove leaf litter, with some deposits as thick as 6 cm. In areas with newly opened canopy, a microbial layer was coating the surface of the imported wrack layer. Overwash and shoreline erosion were also documented at two sites in the lower Keys and Biscayne Bay, and will be monitored for change and recovery over the next few years. Because active research was being conducted, a wealth of pre-storm data exists, thus these locations are uniquely positioned to quantify hurricane impacts to the sedimentary record and standing biomass across a wide geographic area. Due to changes in intensity along the storm path, direct comparisons of damage metrics can be made to environmental setting, wind speed, storm surge, and distance to eyewall.

  1. Female hurricanes are deadlier than male hurricanes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jung, Kiju; Shavitt, Sharon; Viswanathan, Madhu; Hilbe, Joseph M

    2014-06-17

    Do people judge hurricane risks in the context of gender-based expectations? We use more than six decades of death rates from US hurricanes to show that feminine-named hurricanes cause significantly more deaths than do masculine-named hurricanes. Laboratory experiments indicate that this is because hurricane names lead to gender-based expectations about severity and this, in turn, guides respondents' preparedness to take protective action. This finding indicates an unfortunate and unintended consequence of the gendered naming of hurricanes, with important implications for policymakers, media practitioners, and the general public concerning hurricane communication and preparedness.

  2. A Community-Led Medical Response Effort in the Wake of Hurricane Sandy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kraushar, Matthew L; Rosenberg, Rebecca E

    2015-08-01

    On October 29, 2012, Hurricane Sandy made landfall in the neighborhood of Red Hook in Brooklyn, New York. The massive tidal surge generated by the storm submerged the coastal area, home to a population over 11,000 individuals, including the largest public housing development in Brooklyn. The infrastructure devastation was profound: the storm rendered electricity, heat, water, Internet, and phone services inoperative, whereas local ambulatory medical services including clinics, pharmacies, home health agencies, and other resources were damaged beyond functionality. Lacking these services or lines of communication, medically fragile individuals became isolated from the hospital and 911-emergency systems without a preexisting mechanism to identify or treat them. Medically fragile individuals primarily included those with chronic medical conditions dependent on frequent and consistent monitoring and treatments. In response, the Red Hook community established an ad hoc volunteer medical relief effort in the wake of the storm, filling a major gap that continues to exist in disaster medicine for low-income urban environments. Here we describe this effort, including an analysis of the medically vulnerable in this community, and recommend disaster risk reduction strategies and resilience measures for future disaster events.

  3. Development of wave and surge atlas for the design and protection of coastal bridges in south Louisiana : [tech summary].

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-02-01

    The failures of highway bridges on the Gulf Coast seen in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina in 2005 were unprecedented. : In the past four decades, wind waves accompanied by high surges from hurricanes have damaged a number of coastal : bridges alon...

  4. Community And Stakeholder Engagement With A University-Based Storm Research Team And Program During Events: Progressive Awareness, Cooperation And Mutual Support.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gayes, P. T.; Bao, S.; Yan, T.; Pietrafesa, L. J.; Hallstrom, J.; Stirling, D.; Mullikin, T.; McClam, M.; Byrd, M.; Aucoin, K.; Marosites, B.

    2017-12-01

    HUGO: The HUrricane Genesis and Outlook program is a research initiative spanning new approaches to Atlantic tropical season outlooking to a storm event-related interactively coupled model system. In addition to supporting faculty and student academic research it has progressively been engaged by diverse regional interests in the public and private sector. The seasonal outlook incorporates 22 regional-to-global climate drivers developed from the historical storm database and has shown good skill related to historical storm seasons within the development of the model as well as the last several years in an outlook capacity. The event scale model is a based upon a fully interactively coupled model system incorporating ocean, atmosphere, wave and surge/flood models. The recent cluster of storms impacting the Southeast US provided an opportunity to test the model system and helped develop strong collaborative interests across diverse groups seeking to facilitate local capacity and access to additional storm-related information, observations and expertise. The SC State Guard has actively engaged the HUGO team in carrying out their charge in emergency responders planning and activities during several recent storms and flooding events. They were instrumental in developing support to expand observational systems aiding model validation and development as well as develop access pathways for deployment of new observational technology developed through NSF sponsored projects (Intelligent River and Hurricane-RAPID) with ISENSE at Florida Atlantic University to advance observational capability and density especially during or immediately following events. At the same time an increasing number of county-level emergency and environmental managers and private sector interests have similarly been working collaborately towards expanding observational systems contributing to the goals of the growing storm-oriented cooperative and as well as broader national MesoUS goals. Collectively

  5. Near-real-time Forensic Disaster Analysis: experiences from hurricane Sandy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kunz, Michael; Mühr, Bernhard; Schröter, Kai; Kunz-Plapp, Tina; Daniell, James; Khazai, Bijan; Wenzel, Friedemann; Vannieuwenhuyse, Marjorie; Comes, Tina; Münzberg, Thomas; Elmer, Florian; Fohringer, Joachim; Lucas, Christian; Trieselmann, Werner; Zschau, Jochen

    2013-04-01

    Hurricane Sandy was the last tropical cyclone of the 2012 Northern Atlantic Hurricane season that made landfall. It moved on an unusual track from the Caribbean to the East Coast of the United States from 24 to 30 October as a Category 1 and 2 Hurricane according to the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Along its path, the severe storm event caused widespread damage including almost 200 fatalities. In the early hours of 30 October, Sandy made landfall near Atlantic City, N.J. Sandy was an extraordinary event due to its multihazard nature and several cascading effects in the aftermath. From the hydro-meteorological perspective, most unusual was the very large spatial extent of up to 1,700 km. High wind speeds were associated with record breaking storm surges at the U.S. Mid- Atlantic and New England Coast during high (astronomical) tide, leading to widespread flooding. Though Sandy was not the most severe storm event in terms of wind speed and precipitation, the impact in the U.S. was enormous with total damage estimates of up to 90 billion US (own estimate from Dec. 2012). Although much better data emerge weeks after such an event, the Forensic Disaster Analysis (FDA) Task Force of the Center for Disaster Management and Risk Reduction Technology (CEDIM) made an effort to obtain a comprehensive and holistic overview of the causes, hazardous effects and consequences associated with Sandy immediately after landfall at the U.S. coast on 30 October 2012. This was done in an interdisciplinary way by collecting and compiling scattered and distributed information from available databases and sources via the Internet, by applying own methodologies and models for near-real time analyses developed in recent years, and by expert knowledge. This contribution gives an overview about the CEDIM-FDA analyses' results. It describes the situation that led to the extraordinary event, highlights the interaction of the tropical cyclone with other hydro-meteorological events, and examines the

  6. Aftermath of Hurricane Ike along Texas Coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-01-01

    Three weeks after Hurricane Ike came ashore near Galveston, TX, residents returned to find their houses in ruins. From the coast to over 15 km inland, salt water saturated the soil as a result of the 7m storm surge pushed ashore by the force of the hurricane. The right image was acquired on September 28; the left image was acquired August 15, 2006. Vegetation is displayed in red, and inundated areas are in blue-green. Within the inundated area are several small 'red islands' of high ground where salt domes raised the level of the land, and protected the vegetation. With its 14 spectral bands from the visible to the thermal infrared wavelength region, and its high spatial resolution of 15 to 90 meters (about 50 to 300 feet), ASTER images Earth to map and monitor the changing surface of our planet. ASTER is one of five Earth-observing instruments launched December 18, 1999, on NASA's Terra satellite. The instrument was built by Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry. A joint U.S./Japan science team is responsible for validation and calibration of the instrument and the data products. The broad spectral coverage and high spectral resolution of ASTER provides scientists in numerous disciplines with critical information for surface mapping, and monitoring of dynamic conditions and temporal change. Example applications are: monitoring glacial advances and retreats; monitoring potentially active volcanoes; identifying crop stress; determining cloud morphology and physical properties; wetlands evaluation; thermal pollution monitoring; coral reef degradation; surface temperature mapping of soils and geology; and measuring surface heat balance. The U.S. science team is located at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif. The Terra mission is part of NASA's Science Mission Directorate. Size: 37 by 49.5 kilometers (22.8 by 30.6 miles) Location: 29.8 degrees North latitude, 94.4 degrees West longitude Orientation: North at top Image Data: ASTER Bands 3, 2, and

  7. Hurricane Irma's Effects on Dune and Beach Morphology at Matanzas Inlet, Atlantic Coast of North Florida: Impacts and Inhibited Recovery?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adams, P. N.; Conlin, M. P.; Johnson, H. A.; Paniagua-Arroyave, J. F.; Woo, H. B.; Kelly, B. P.

    2017-12-01

    During energetic coastal storms, surge from low atmospheric pressure, high wave set-up, and increased wave activity contribute to significant morphologic change within the dune and upper beach environments of barrier island systems. Hurricane Irma made landfall on the southwestern portion of the Florida peninsula, as a category 4 storm on Sept 10th, 2017 and tracked northward along the axis of the Florida peninsula for two days before dissipating over the North American continent. Observations along the North Florida Atlantic coast recorded significant wave heights of nearly 7 m and water levels that exceeded predictions by 2 meters on the early morning of Sept. 11th. At Fort Matanzas National Monument, the dune and upper beach adjacent to Matanzas Inlet experienced landward retreat during the storm, diminishing the acreage of dune and scrub habitat for federally-listed endangered and threatened animal species, including the Anastasia beach mouse, gopher tortoises, and several protected shore birds. Real Time Kinematic (RTK) GPS surveys, conducted prior to the passage of the storm (Sept. 8) and immediately after the storm (Sept. 13) document dune scarp retreat >10 m in places and an average retreat of 7.8 m (+/- 5.2 m) of the 2-m beach contour, attributable to the event, within the study region. Although it is typical to see sedimentary recovery at the base of dunes within weeks following an erosive event of this magnitude, our follow up RTK surveys, two weeks (Sept. 26) and five weeks (Oct. 19) after the storm, document continued dune retreat and upper beach lowering. Subsequent local buoy observations during the offshore passage of Hurricanes Jose, Maria (Sept. 17 and 23, respectively) and several early-season Nor'easters recorded wave heights well above normal (2-3 meters) from the northeast. The lack of recovery may reveal a threshold vulnerability of the system, in which the timing of multiple moderate-to-high wave events, in the aftermath of a land falling-hurricane

  8. Hurricane Resource Reel

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This Reel Includes the Following Sections TRT 50:10 Hurricane Overviews 1:02; Hurricane Arthur 15:07; Cyclone Pam 19:48; Typhoon Hagupit 21:27; Hurricane Bertha...

  9. Hurricane Evacuation Routes

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Homeland Security — Hurricane Evacuation Routes in the United States A hurricane evacuation route is a designated route used to direct traffic inland in case of a hurricane threat. This...

  10. Overview of the ARkStorm scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porter, Keith; Wein, Anne; Alpers, Charles N.; Baez, Allan; Barnard, Patrick L.; Carter, James; Corsi, Alessandra; Costner, James; Cox, Dale; Das, Tapash; Dettinger, Mike; Done, James; Eadie, Charles; Eymann, Marcia; Ferris, Justin; Gunturi, Prasad; Hughes, Mimi; Jarrett, Robert; Johnson, Laurie; Le-Griffin, Hanh Dam; Mitchell, David; Morman, Suzette; Neiman, Paul; Olsen, Anna; Perry, Suzanne; Plumlee, Geoffrey; Ralph, Martin; Reynolds, David; Rose, Adam; Schaefer, Kathleen; Serakos, Julie; Siembieda, William; Stock, Jonathan; Strong, David; Wing, Ian Sue; Tang, Alex; Thomas, Pete; Topping, Ken; Wills, Chris; Jones, Lucile

    2011-01-01

    coastal communities. Windspeeds in some places reach 125 miles per hour, hurricane-force winds. Across wider areas of the state, winds reach 60 miles per hour. Hundreds of landslides damage roads, highways, and homes. Property damage exceeds $300 billion, most from flooding. Demand surge (an increase in labor rates and other repair costs after major natural disasters) could increase property losses by 20 percent. Agricultural losses and other costs to repair lifelines, dewater (drain) flooded islands, and repair damage from landslides, brings the total direct property loss to nearly $400 billion, of which $20 to $30 billion would be recoverable through public and commercial insurance. Power, water, sewer, and other lifelines experience damage that takes weeks or months to restore. Flooding evacuation could involve 1.5 million residents in the inland region and delta counties. Business interruption costs reach $325 billion in addition to the $400 property repair costs, meaning that an ARkStorm could cost on the order of $725 billion, which is nearly 3 times the loss deemed to be realistic by the ShakeOut authors for a severe southern California earthquake, an event with roughly the same annual occurrence probability. The ARkStorm has several public policy implications: (1) An ARkStorm raises serious questions about the ability of existing federal, state, and local disaster planning to handle a disaster of this magnitude. (2) A core policy issue raised is whether to pay now to mitigate, or pay a lot more later for recovery. (3) Innovative financing solutions are likely to be needed to avoid fiscal crisis and adequately fund response and recovery costs from a similar, real, disaster. (4) Responders and government managers at all levels could be encouraged to conduct risk assessments, and devise the full spectrum of exercises, to exercise ability of their plans to address a similar event. (5) ARkStorm can be a reference point for application of Federal Emergency Ma

  11. Disturbance effects of hurricane Hugo on a pristine coastal landscape: North Inlet, South Carolina, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gardner, L. R.; Michener, W. K.; Williams, T. M.; Blood, E. R.; Kjerve, B.; Smock, L. A.; Lipscomb, D. J.; Gresham, C.

    Despite its intensity and landfall at high tide, Hurricane Hugo (22 Sept. 1989) had only a modest impact on the geomorphology of the undeveloped coastal landscape at North Inlet, South Carolina. Pre- and post-Hugo aerial photographs (April 1987 and October 1989) showed no change in the salt-marsh creek network, nor could changes be seen in the size or shape of sand bars within the creeks. Several new, small washover fans formed on the adjacent barrier islands. These lobate fans extend 50 to 100 m from the dune line into the back barrier area and are deposited on older but recently formed fans in areas where the islands are thin and devoid of large shrubs and trees. Hugo's failure to have a more dramatic geomorphic effect was probably related to the rapid approach of the storm along a path perpendicular to the coast. This allowed minimal time for the surge to build and for wave attack to modify the shoreface. In contrast, the nearby coastal forest experienced extensive wind damage as well as tree mortality due to soil salinization by the surge. Wind damage was a function of tree species, diameter and soil type. The most severe damage occurred in mixed bottomland hardwood sites on Rutledge (sandy, silicious, thermic Typic Humaquepts) soils. Salt-induced foliage discoloration and defoliation became fully evident in the surge-inundated area by January 1990. Above-normal salt concentrations were found in shallow groundwater samples from sites up to the 3.0-m contour (MSL). Salt concentrations generally decreased inland from the forest-marsh boundary and with the passage of time. Trees standing along the forest-marsh boundary and in swales suffered the most severe salt-induced mortality. As of June 1991, new understory vegetation and pine seedlings appeared to be flourishing in the salt-affected area. Salinization also mobilized ammonium from soil storage as a result of ion exchange with seawater cations and disruption of nitrogen cycling processes. There was a virtual

  12. Longitudinal Impact of Hurricane Sandy Exposure on Mental Health Symptoms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwartz, Rebecca M; Gillezeau, Christina N; Liu, Bian; Lieberman-Cribbin, Wil; Taioli, Emanuela

    2017-08-24

    Hurricane Sandy hit the eastern coast of the United States in October 2012, causing billions of dollars in damage and acute physical and mental health problems. The long-term mental health consequences of the storm and their predictors have not been studied. New York City and Long Island residents completed questionnaires regarding their initial Hurricane Sandy exposure and mental health symptoms at baseline and 1 year later (N = 130). There were statistically significant decreases in anxiety scores (mean difference = -0.33, p Hurricane Sandy has an impact on PTSD symptoms that persists over time. Given the likelihood of more frequent and intense hurricanes due to climate change, future hurricane recovery efforts must consider the long-term effects of hurricane exposure on mental health, especially on PTSD, when providing appropriate assistance and treatment.

  13. Who evacuates when hurricanes approach? The role of risk, information, and location.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stein, Robert M; Dueñas-Osorio, Leonardo; Subramanian, Devika

    2010-01-01

    This article offers an expanded perspective on evacuation decision making during severe weather. In particular, this work focuses on uncovering determinants of individual evacuation decisions. We draw on a survey conducted in 2005 of residents in the eight-county Houston metropolitan area after Hurricane Rita made landfall on September 24, 2005. We find that evacuation decisions are influenced by a heterogeneous set of parameters, including perceived risk from wind, influence of media and neighbors, and awareness of evacuation zone, that are often at variance with one of the primary measures of risk used by public officials to order or recommend an evacuation (i.e., storm surge). We further find that perceived risk and its influence on evacuation behavior is a local phenomenon more readily communicated by and among individuals who share the same geography, as is the case with residents living inside and outside official risk areas. Who evacuates and why is partially dependent on where one lives because perceptions of risk are not uniformly shared across the area threatened by an approaching hurricane and the same sources and content of information do not have the same effect on evacuation behavior. Hence, efforts to persuade residential populations about risk and when, where, and how to evacuate or shelter in place should originate in the neighborhood rather than emanating from blanket statements from the media or public officials. Our findings also raise important policy questions (included in the discussion section) that require further study and consideration by those responsible with organizing and implementing evacuation plans.

  14. Two-dimensional time dependent hurricane overwash and erosion modeling at Santa Rosa Island

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCall, R.T.; Van Theil de Vries, J. S. M.; Plant, N.G.; Van Dongeren, A. R.; Roelvink, J.A.; Thompson, D.M.; Reniers, A.J.H.M.

    2010-01-01

    A 2DH numerical, model which is capable of computing nearshore circulation and morphodynamics, including dune erosion, breaching and overwash, is used to simulate overwash caused by Hurricane Ivan (2004) on a barrier island. The model is forced using parametric wave and surge time series based on field data and large-scale numerical model results. The model predicted beach face and dune erosion reasonably well as well as the development of washover fans. Furthermore, the model demonstrated considerable quantitative skill (upwards of 66% of variance explained, maximum bias - 0.21 m) in hindcasting the post-storm shape and elevation of the subaerial barrier island when a sheet flow sediment transport limiter was applied. The prediction skill ranged between 0.66 and 0.77 in a series of sensitivity tests in which several hydraulic forcing parameters were varied. The sensitivity studies showed that the variations in the incident wave height and wave period affected the entire simulated island morphology while variations in the surge level gradient between the ocean and back barrier bay affected the amount of deposition on the back barrier and in the back barrier bay. The model sensitivity to the sheet flow sediment transport limiter, which served as a proxy for unknown factors controlling the resistance to erosion, was significantly greater than the sensitivity to the hydraulic forcing parameters. If no limiter was applied the simulated morphological response of the barrier island was an order of magnitude greater than the measured morphological response.

  15. Tide-surge interaction along the east coast of the Leizhou Peninsula, South China Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Heng; Cheng, Weicong; Qiu, Xixi; Feng, Xiangbo; Gong, Wenping

    2017-06-01

    A triply-nested two-dimensional (2D) ocean circulation model along with observed sea level records are used to study tide-surge interaction along the east coast of the Leizhou Peninsula (LP) which is characterized by extensive mudflats, large tidal ranges and a complex coastline. The dependency of surge maxima on the water level and the phase of tide are respectively investigated using two statistical approaches. Results show that tide-surge interaction along the east coast of the LP is significant, where surges peak 3-6 h before or after the nearest high water. The triply-nested 2D ocean circulation model is used to quantify tide-surge interaction in this region and to investigate its physical cause. The largest amplitudes of tide-surge interaction are found in the shallow water region of the Leizhou Bay, with values up to 1 m during typhoon events. Numerical experiments reveal that nonlinear bottom friction is the main contributor to tide-surge interaction, while the contribution of the nonlinear advective effect can be neglected. The shallow water effect enhances the role of nonlinear bottom friction in determining tide-surge modulation, leaving the surge peaks usually occur on the rising or falling tide. It is also found that the relative contribution of local wind and remote wind is different depending on the storm track and storm intensity, which would finally affect the temporal and spatial distribution of tide-surge interaction during typhoon events. These findings confirm the importance of coupling storm surges and tides for the prediction of storm surge events in regions which are characterized by shallow water depths and large tidal ranges.

  16. On the use of wave parameterizations and a storm impact scaling model in National Weather Service Coastal Flood and decision support operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mignone, Anthony; Stockdon, H.; Willis, M.; Cannon, J.W.; Thompson, R.

    2012-01-01

    National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Forecast Offices (WFO) are responsible for issuing coastal flood watches, warnings, advisories, and local statements to alert decision makers and the general public when rising water levels may lead to coastal impacts such as inundation, erosion, and wave battery. Both extratropical and tropical cyclones can generate the prerequisite rise in water level to set the stage for a coastal impact event. Forecasters use a variety of tools including computer model guidance and local studies to help predict the potential severity of coastal flooding. However, a key missing component has been the incorporation of the effects of waves in the prediction of total water level and the associated coastal impacts. Several recent studies have demonstrated the importance of incorporating wave action into the NWS coastal flood program. To follow up on these studies, this paper looks at the potential of applying recently developed empirical parameterizations of wave setup, swash, and runup to the NWS forecast process. Additionally, the wave parameterizations are incorporated into a storm impact scaling model that compares extreme water levels to beach elevation data to determine the mode of coastal change at predetermined “hotspots” of interest. Specifically, the storm impact model compares the approximate storm-induced still water level, which includes contributions from tides, storm surge, and wave setup, to dune crest elevation to determine inundation potential. The model also compares the combined effects of tides, storm surge, and the 2 % exceedance level for vertical wave runup (including both wave setup and swash) to dune toe and crest elevations to determine if erosion and/or ocean overwash may occur. The wave parameterizations and storm impact model are applied to two cases in 2009 that led to significant coastal impacts and unique forecast challenges in North Carolina: the extratropical “Nor'Ida” event during 11-14 November and

  17. Wetland Accretion Rates Along Coastal Louisiana: Spatial and Temporal Variability in Light of Hurricane Isaac’s Impacts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas A. Bianchette

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The wetlands of the southern Louisiana coast are disappearing due to a host of environmental stressors. Thus, it is imperative to analyze the spatial and temporal variability of wetland vertical accretion rates. A key question in accretion concerns the role of landfalling hurricanes as a land-building agent, due to their propensity to deposit significant volumes of inorganic sediments. Since 1996, thousands of accretion measurements have been made at 390 sites across coastal Louisiana as a result of a regional monitoring network, called the Coastal Reference Monitoring System (CRMS. We utilized this dataset to analyze the spatial and temporal patterns of accretion by mapping rates during time periods before, around, and after the landfall of Hurricane Isaac (2012. This analysis is vital for quantifying the role of hurricanes as a land-building agent and for understanding the main mechanism causing heightened wetland accretion. The results show that accretion rates averaged about 2.89 cm/year from stations sampled before Isaac, 4.04 cm/year during the period encompassing Isaac, and 2.38 cm/year from sites established and sampled after Isaac. Accretion rates attributable to Isaac’s effects were therefore 40% and 70% greater than before and after the event, respectively, indicating the event’s importance toward coastal land-building. Accretion associated with Isaac was highest at sites located 70 kilometers from the storm track, particularly those near the Mississippi River and its adjacent distributaries and lakes. This spatial pattern of elevated accretion rates indicates that freshwater flooding from fluvial channels, rather than storm surge from the sea per se, is the main mechanism responsible for increased wetland accretion. This significance of riverine flooding has implications toward future coastal restoration policies and practices.

  18. Hurricane modification and adaptation in Miami-Dade County, Florida.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klima, Kelly; Lin, Ning; Emanuel, Kerry; Morgan, M Granger; Grossmann, Iris

    2012-01-17

    We investigate tropical cyclone wind and storm surge damage reduction for five areas along the Miami-Dade County coastline either by hardening buildings or by the hypothetical application of wind-wave pumps to modify storms. We calculate surge height and wind speed as functions of return period and sea surface temperature reduction by wind-wave pumps. We then estimate costs and economic losses with the FEMA HAZUS-MH MR3 damage model and census data on property at risk. All areas experience more surge damages for short return periods, and more wind damages for long periods. The return period at which the dominating hazard component switches depends on location. We also calculate the seasonal expected fraction of control damage for different scenarios to reduce damages. Surge damages are best reduced through a surge barrier. Wind damages are best reduced by a portfolio of techniques that, assuming they work and are correctly deployed, include wind-wave pumps.

  19. Mapping the Distribution of Sand Live Oak (Quercus geminata) and Determining Growth Responses to Hurricane Katrina (2005) on Cat Island, Mississippi

    Science.gov (United States)

    Funderburk, W.; Carter, G. A.; Harley, G. L.

    2013-12-01

    William R. Funderburk, Gregory A. Carter, Grant Harley Gulf Coast Geospatial Center, University of Southern Mississippi Department of Geography and Geology Stennis Space Center, MS 39529 U.S.A. william.funderburk@usm.edu The Mississippi-Alabama barrier islands serve to buffer mainland coastal areas from the impacts of hurricanes and other extreme weather events. On August 29, 2005, they were impacted heavily by the wind, waves, and storm surges of Hurricane Katrina. The purpose of this study is to determine the growth responses of Quercus geminata, a dominant tree species on Cat Island, MS, in relation to the impact of Hurricane Katrina. Remotely sensed data was utilized in conjunction with ground data to assess growth response post Hurricane Katrina. The main objectives of this study were: 1) determine growth response of Q. geminata through tree ring analysis; 2) understand how Q. geminata adapted to intense weather and climatic phenomena on Cat Island. The hypotheses tested were: 1) growth rates of Q. geminata on Cat Island were decreased by the impact of Hurricane Katrina 2) trees at higher elevations survived or recovered while trees at lower elevations did not recover or died. Decadal scale stability is required for forest stand development on siliciclastic barrier islands. Thus, monitoring the distribution of forest climax community species is key to understanding siliciclastic, subsiding, barrier island geomorphic processes and their relationships to successional patterns and growth rates. Preliminary results indicate that Q. geminata produces a faint growth ring, survive for at least two to three hundred years and is well-adapted to frequent salt water flooding. Cat Island: False color Image

  20. Observation and modeling of the evolution of an ephemeral storm-induced inlet: Pea Island Breach, North Carolina, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velasquez Montoya, Liliana; Sciaudone, Elizabeth J.; Mitasova, Helena; Overton, Margery F.

    2018-03-01

    The Outer Banks of North Carolina is a wave-dominated barrier island system that has experienced the opening and closure of numerous inlets in the last four centuries. The most recent of those inlets formed after the breaching of Pea Island during Hurricane Irene in 2011. The Pea Island Breach experienced a rapid evolution including episodic curvature of the main channel, rotation of the ebb channel, shoaling, widening by Hurricane Sandy in 2012, and finally closing before the summer of 2013. Studying the life cycle of Pea Island Breach contributes to understanding the behavior of ephemeral inlets in breaching-prone regions. This topic has gained relevance due to rising sea levels, a phenomenon that increases the chances of ephemeral inlet formation during extreme events. This study explores the spatiotemporal effects of tides, waves, and storms on flow velocities and morphology of the breach by means of remotely sensed data, geospatial metrics, and a numerical model. The combined use of observations and results from modeling experiments allowed building a conceptual model to explain the life cycle of Pea Island Breach. Wave seasonality dominated the morphological evolution of the inlet by controlling the magnitude and direction of the longshore current that continuously built transient spits at both sides of the breach. Sensitivity analysis to external forcings indicates that ocean waves can modify water levels and velocities in the back barrier. Sound-side storm surge regulates overall growth rate, duration, and decay of peak water levels entering the inlet during extreme events.

  1. A Coupled Community-Level Assessment of Social and Physical Vulnerability to Hurricane Disasters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, J. H.; Sutley, E. J.; Chowdhury, A. G.; Hamideh, S.

    2017-12-01

    A significant portion of the U.S. building inventory exists in hurricane- and flood-prone regions. The accompanying storm surge and rising water levels often result in the inundation of residential homes, particularly those occupied by low income households and forcing displacement. In order to mitigate potential damages, a popular design technique is to elevate the structure using piers or piles to above the base flood elevation. This is observed for single-family and multi-family homes, including manufactured homes and post-disaster temporary housing, albeit at lower elevations. Although this design alleviates potential flood damage, it affects the wind-structure interaction by subjecting the structure to higher wind speeds due to its increased height and also having a path for the wind to pass underneath the structure potentially creating new vulnerabilities to wind loading. The current ASCE 7 Standard (2016) does not include a methodology for addressing the modified aerodynamics and estimating wind loads for elevated structures, and thus the potential vulnerability during high wind events is unaccounted for in design. Using experimentally measured wind pressures on elevated and non-elevated residential building models, tax data, and census data, a coupled vulnerability assessment is performed at the community-level. Galveston, Texas is selected as the case study community. Using the coupled assessment model, a hindcast of 2008 Hurricane Ike is used for predicting physical damage and household dislocation. The predicted results are compared with the actual outcomes of the 2008 hurricane disaster. Recommendations are made (1) for code adoption based on the experimentally measured wind loads, and (2) for mitigation actions and policies that would could decrease population dislocation and promote recovery.

  2. Low Latitude Pelagic Foraminifera Found in the Hudson River: Are They Hurricane Deposits?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monahan, K. M.; Abbott, D. H.; Hoenisch, B.; Breger, D.

    2011-12-01

    River sediment cores provide a record of past environmental changes through stacked layers of sediments. In core CD02-29A, recovered from the southern Hudson River, a significant number of tropical planktic foraminifer tests were found. Foraminifera were concentrated in sediment layers of low impedance, suggesting high carbonate content. Because modern planktic foraminifera are exclusively marine, their presence in Hudson sediments in the core was remarkable. We can think of only two mechanisms that could explain this observation: either living specimens are carried upriver with the daily tides, or storm surges carry large amounts of seawater and re-suspended marine sediment upriver. To test for the presence of living specimens in Hudson River water, plankton tow samples were collected during high tide at the Hudson Battery south of the sample site, and at Piermont Pier north of the sample site and no living foraminifera were found. In addition, oxygen isotope (δ18O) analyses reveal a marine composition but the large difference in δ18O between the two surface dwelling species Globigerinoides ruber (pink) and Globigerinoides sacculifer, picked from the same sediment layer, suggests re-suspension and mixing of marine sediment deposits. Because only planktic, tropical to subtropical foraminiferal assemblages were found, the Hudson River deposits differ from previously recorded storm deposits found on Long Island and in New Jersey. In particular, the foraminiferal assemblages contain up to 40% G. ruber (pink), suggesting a highly tropical signal from a location where abundances of G. ruber are very low. This data, in addition to the pulsed occurrence of tests in the sediment suggests that the introduction of planktic foraminifera into the Hudson River must be driven by rare events. We suggest that storm surges from rare high-intensity hurricanes most likely explain the presence of these tests in Hudson River sediments, possibly assisted by the Gulf Stream entraining

  3. A team approach to preparing for hurricanes and other disasters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kendig, Jim

    2009-01-01

    Applying lessons learned in Hurricane Floyd in 1999, a three-hospital system located on Florida's exposed Space Coast was able to better deal with the devastation caused by hurricanes in 2004 and make changes in its plans to better prepare for the named storms which hit its area in 2008. Each new disaster, the author points out, brings with it new challenges which have to be considered in disaster planning.

  4. Storm Warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Tammy; Kier, Meredith; Phillips, Kelsey

    2016-01-01

    To show students how engineering design practices reduce the impacts of a natural hazard, the authors--two science educators and an elementary teacher--taught a three-day 5E lesson that focused on hurricanes. They specifically focused on hurricanes because their students are located near a coastal area and are familiar with the effects of this…

  5. Effects of 2010 Hurricane Earl amidst geologic evidence for greater overwash at Anegada, British Virgin Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atwater, B. F.; Fuentes, Z.; Halley, R. B.; Ten Brink, U. S.; Tuttle, M. P.

    2014-03-01

    A post-hurricane survey of a Caribbean island affords comparisons with geologic evidence for greater overwash at the same place. This comparison, though of limited application to other places, helps calibrate coastal geology for assessment of earthquake and tsunami potential along the Antilles Subduction Zone. The surveyed island, Anegada, is 120 km south of the Puerto Rico Trench and is near the paths of hurricanes Donna (1960) and Earl (2010), which were at or near category 4 when at closest approach. The survey focused on Earl's geologic effects, related them to the surge from Hurricane Donna, and compared them further with erosional and depositional signs of southward overwash from the Atlantic Ocean that dates to 1200-1450 AD and to 1650-1800 AD. The main finding is that the geologic effects of these earlier events dwarf those of the recent hurricanes. Hurricane Earl's geologic effects at Anegada, observed mainly in 2011, were limited to wrack deposition along many of the island's shores and salt ponds, accretion of small washover (spillover) fans on the south shore, and the suspension and deposition of microbial material from interior salt ponds. Earl's most widespread deposit at Anegada, the microbial detritus, was abundantly juxtaposed with evidence for catastrophic overwash in prior centuries. The microbial detritus formed an extensive coating up to 2 cm thick that extended into breaches in beach-ridge plains of the island's north shore, onto playas that are underlain by a sand-and-shell sheet that extends as much as 1.5 km southward from the north shore, and among southward-strewn limestone boulders pendant to outcrops as much as 1 km inland. Earl's spillover fans also contrast with a sand-and-shell sheet, which was dated previously to 1650-1800, by being limited to the island's south shore and by extending inland a few tens of meters at most. These findings complement those reported in this issue by Michaela Spiske and Robert Halley (Spiske and Halley

  6. Hurricane Sandy: Shared Trauma and Therapist Self-Disclosure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rao, Nyapati; Mehra, Ashwin

    2015-01-01

    Hurricane Sandy was one of the most devastating storms to hit the United States in history. The impact of the hurricane included power outages, flooding in the New York City subway system and East River tunnels, disrupted communications, acute shortages of gasoline and food, and a death toll of 113 people. In addition, thousands of residences and businesses in New Jersey and New York were destroyed. This article chronicles the first author's personal and professional experiences as a survivor of the hurricane, more specifically in the dual roles of provider and trauma victim, involving informed self-disclosure with a patient who was also a victim of the hurricane. The general analytic framework of therapy is evaluated in the context of the shared trauma faced by patient and provider alike in the face of the hurricane, leading to important implications for future work on resilience and recovery for both the therapist and patient.

  7. Tide-surge Interaction Intensified by the Taiwan Strait

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Wen-Zhou; Shi, Fengyan; Hong, Hua-Sheng; Shang, Shao-Ping; Kirby, James T.

    2010-06-01

    The Taiwan Strait is a long and wide shelf-channel where the hydrodynamics is extremely complex, being characterized by strong tides, and where storm surges frequently occur during the typhoon season. Obvious oscillations due to tide-surge interaction were observed by tide gauges along the northern Fujian coast, the west bank of the Taiwan Strait, during Typhoon Dan (1999). Numerical experiments indicate that nonlinear bottom friction (described by the quadratic formula) is a major factor to predict these oscillations while the nonlinear advective terms and the shallow water effect have little contribution. It is found that the tide-surge interaction in the northern portion of the Taiwan Strait is intensified by the strait. Simulations based on simplified topographies with and without the island of Taiwan show that, in the presence of the island, the channel effect strengthens tidal currents and tends to align the major axes of tidal ellipses along the channel direction. Storm-induced currents are also strengthened by the channel. The pattern of strong tidal currents and storm-induced currents along the channel direction enhances tide-surge interaction via the nonlinear bottom friction, resulting in the obvious oscillations along the northern Fujian coast.

  8. Decision Science Perspectives on Hurricane Vulnerability: Evidence from the 2010–2012 Atlantic Hurricane Seasons

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kerry Milch

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Although the field has seen great advances in hurricane prediction and response, the economic toll from hurricanes on U.S. communities continues to rise. We present data from Hurricanes Earl (2010, Irene (2011, Isaac (2012, and Sandy (2012 to show that individual and household decisions contribute to this vulnerability. From phone surveys of residents in communities threatened by impending hurricanes, we identify five decision biases or obstacles that interfere with residents’ ability to protect themselves and minimize property damage: (1 temporal and spatial myopia, (2 poor mental models of storm risk, (3 gaps between objective and subjective probability estimates, (4 prior storm experience, and (5 social factors. We then discuss ways to encourage better decision making and reduce the economic and emotional impacts of hurricanes, using tools such as decision defaults (requiring residents to opt out of precautions rather than opt in and tailoring internet-based forecast information so that it is local, specific, and emphasizes impacts rather than probability.

  9. Hurricane Gustav Poster

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Hurricane Gustav poster. Multi-spectral image from NOAA-17 shows Hurricane Gustav having made landfall along the Louisiana coastline. Poster size is 36"x27"

  10. 2005 Atlantic Hurricanes Poster

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The 2005 Atlantic Hurricanes poster features high quality satellite images of 15 hurricanes which formed in the Atlantic Basin (includes Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean...

  11. Hurricane Ike Poster

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Hurricane Ike poster. Multi-spectral image from NOAA-15 shows Hurricane Ike in the Gulf of Mexico heading toward Galveston Island, Texas. Poster size is 36"x27".

  12. 2004 Landfalling Hurricanes Poster

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The 2004 U.S. Landfalling Hurricanes poster is a special edition poster which contains two sets of images of Hurricanes Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne, created...

  13. Inner-shelf ocean dynamics and seafloor morphologic changes during Hurricane Sandy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warner, John C.; Schwab, William C.; List, Jeffrey H.; Safak, Ilgar; Liste, Maria; Baldwin, Wayne

    2017-04-01

    Hurricane Sandy was one of the most destructive hurricanes in US history, making landfall on the New Jersey coast on October 30, 2012. Storm impacts included several barrier island breaches, massive coastal erosion, and flooding. While changes to the subaerial landscape are relatively easily observed, storm-induced changes to the adjacent shoreface and inner continental shelf are more difficult to evaluate. These regions provide a framework for the coastal zone, are important for navigation, aggregate resources, marine ecosystems, and coastal evolution. Here we provide unprecedented perspective regarding regional inner continental shelf sediment dynamics based on both observations and numerical modeling over time scales associated with these types of large storm events. Oceanographic conditions and seafloor morphologic changes are evaluated using both a coupled atmospheric-ocean-wave-sediment numerical modeling system that covered spatial scales ranging from the entire US east coast (1000 s of km) to local domains (10 s of km). Additionally, the modeled response for the region offshore of Fire Island, NY was compared to observational analysis from a series of geologic surveys from that location. The geologic investigations conducted in 2011 and 2014 revealed lateral movement of sedimentary structures of distances up to 450 m and in water depths up to 30 m, and vertical changes in sediment thickness greater than 1 m in some locations. The modeling investigations utilize a system with grid refinement designed to simulate oceanographic conditions with progressively increasing resolutions for the entire US East Coast (5-km grid), the New York Bight (700-m grid), and offshore of Fire Island, NY (100-m grid), allowing larger scale dynamics to drive smaller scale coastal changes. Model results in the New York Bight identify maximum storm surge of up to 3 m, surface currents on the order of 2 ms-1 along the New Jersey coast, waves up to 8 m in height, and bottom stresses

  14. Inner-shelf ocean dynamics and seafloor morphologic changes during Hurricane Sandy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warner, John C.; Schwab, William C.; List, Jeffrey; Safak, Ilgar; Liste, Maria; Baldwin, Wayne E.

    2017-01-01

    Hurricane Sandy was one of the most destructive hurricanes in US history, making landfall on the New Jersey coast on Oct 30, 2012. Storm impacts included several barrier island breaches, massive coastal erosion, and flooding. While changes to the subaerial landscape are relatively easily observed, storm-induced changes to the adjacent shoreface and inner continental shelf are more difficult to evaluate. These regions provide a framework for the coastal zone, are important for navigation, aggregate resources, marine ecosystems, and coastal evolution. Here we provide unprecedented perspective regarding regional inner continental shelf sediment dynamics based on both observations and numerical modeling over time scales associated with these types of large storm events. Oceanographic conditions and seafloor morphologic changes are evaluated using both a coupled atmospheric-ocean-wave-sediment numerical modeling system and observation analysis from a series of geologic surveys and oceanographic instrument deployments focused on a region offshore of Fire Island, NY. The geologic investigations conducted in 2011 and 2014 revealed lateral movement of sedimentary structures of distances up to 450 m and in water depths up to 30 m, and vertical changes in sediment thickness greater than 1 m in some locations. The modeling investigations utilize a system with grid refinement designed to simulate oceanographic conditions with progressively increasing resolutions for the entire US East Coast (5-km grid), the New York Bight (700-m grid), and offshore of Fire Island, NY (100-m grid), allowing larger scale dynamics to drive smaller scale coastal changes. Model results in the New York Bight identify maximum storm surge of up to 3 m, surface currents on the order of 2 ms-1 along the New Jersey coast, waves up to 8 m in height, and bottom stresses exceeding 10 Pa. Flow down the Hudson Shelf Valley is shown to result in convergent sediment transport and deposition along its axis

  15. Learning Storm

    CERN Document Server

    Jain, Ankit

    2014-01-01

    If you are a Java developer who wants to enter into the world of real-time stream processing applications using Apache Storm, then this book is for you. No previous experience in Storm is required as this book starts from the basics. After finishing this book, you will be able to develop not-so-complex Storm applications.

  16. Morphological Modeling of a Low-Dune Barrier Headland System's Response to Hurricane Forcing Before and After a Large Scale Restoration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, C.; Chen, Q. J.

    2017-12-01

    Coastal barrier landforms serve as the first line of defense against oceanic and meteorological forcing. Widespread recognition of this function has prompted coastal managers to adopt systematic restoration programs. The state of Louisiana has, in response to its critically eroding shorelines (Byrnes et al., 2017), implemented 30 barrier island and headland restoration projects over the past three decades. The Caminada Headlands Beach and Dune Restoration Project, completed in 2016, restored 22.5 kilometers of Louisiana's coastline by elevating the cross-shore profile and placing approximately 250,000 m3 of sediment within the back- and foreshore. Interventions of this magnitude are significant perturbations to the local sediment budget and geomorphodynamic equilibrium. In Louisiana, an important question is the immediate fate of placed sediment transported during the passage of a hurricane, as the potential to ultimately retain this sediment is influenced by the location of its deposition. The direction of net sediment transport (on- or offshore) depends mainly on the elevation of the storm surge relative to the dune crest, but also on the evolution of the cross-shore water surface gradient and the spatial configuration of biogeophysical properties and hard-structures (Sherwood et al., 2014; Smallegan et al., 2016) . Prior to its restoration, the Caminada headlands were generally of low elevation with the majority of dune crest extending less than 50 cm above MHW and several active breaches. Hurricanes Gustav (2008) and Isaac (2012) made landfall directly on the headlands with inundating storm surges that resulted in observed overwash deposition (Doran et al, 2009; Guy et al, 2013), i.e. landward directed sediment transport and deposition. An open-source process-based morphological model (XBeach) is used to study hurricane induced sediment transport for both pre- and post-restoration of the Caminada headlands. Hindcast pre-restoration simulations of Gustav's and

  17. Impacts of a large array of offshore wind farms on precipitation during hurricane Harvey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Y.; Archer, C. L.

    2017-12-01

    Hurricane Harvey brought to the Texas coast possibly the heaviest rain ever recorded in U.S. history, which then caused flooding at unprecedented levels. Previous studies have shown that large arrays of offshore wind farms can extract kinetic energy from a hurricane and thus reduce the wind and storm surge. This study will quantitatively test weather the offshore turbines may also affect precipitation patterns. The Weather Research Forecast model is employed to model Harvey and the offshore wind farms are parameterized as elevated drag and turbulence kinetic energy sources. The turbines (7.8 MW Enercon-126 with rotor diameter D=127 m) are placed along the coast of Texas and Louisiana within 100 km from the shore, where the water depth is below 200 meters. Three spacing between turbines are considered (with the number of turbines in parenthesis): 7D×7D (149,936), 9D×9D (84,339), and 11D×11D (56,226). A fourth case (9D×9D) with a smaller area and thus less turbines (33,363) is added to the simulations to emphasize the impacts of offshore turbines installed specifically to protect the city of Houston, which was flooded heavily during hurricane Harvey. The model is integrated for 24 hours from 00UTC Aug 26th, 2017 to 00UTC Aug 27th, 2017. Model results indicate that the offshore wind farms have a strong impact on the distribution of 24-hour accumulated precipitation, with an obvious decrease onshore, downstream of the wind farms, and an increase in the offshore areas, upstream of or within the wind farms. A sector covering the metro-Houston area is chosen to study the sensitivity of the four different wind farm layouts. The spatial-average 24-hour accumulated precipitation is decreased by 37%, 28%, 20% and 25% respectively for the four cases. Compared with the control case with no wind turbines, increased horizontal wind divergence and lower vertical velocity are found where the precipitation is reduced onshore, whereas increased horizontal wind convergence and

  18. Genesis and maintenance of "Mediterranean hurricanes"

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Emanuel

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Cyclonic storms that closely resemble tropical cyclones in satellite images occasionally form over the Mediterranean Sea. Synoptic and mesoscale analyses of such storms show small, warm-core structure and surface winds sometimes exceeding 25ms-1 over small areas. These analyses, together with numerical simulations, reveal that in their mature stages, such storms intensify and are maintained by a feedback between surface enthalpy fluxes and wind, and as such are isomorphic with tropical cyclones. In this paper, I demonstrate that a cold, upper low over the Mediterranean can produce strong cyclogenesis in an axisymmetric model, thereby showing that baroclinic instability is not necessary during the mature stages of Mediterranean hurricanes.

  19. Surge-damping vacuum valve

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bullock, J.C.; Kelley, B.E.

    1977-01-01

    A valve for damping out flow surges in a vacuum system is described. The surge-damping mechanism consists of a slotted, spring-loaded disk adjacent to the valve's vacuum port (the flow passage to the vacuum roughing pump). Under flow surge conditions, the differential pressure forces the disk into a sealing engagement with the vacuum port, thereby restricting the gas flow path to narrow slots in the disk's periphery. The increased flow damps out the flow surge. When pressure is equalized on both sides of the valve, the spring load moves the disk away from the port to restore full flow conductance through the valve

  20. Assessment of the Great Lakes Marine Renewable Energy Resources: Characterizing Lake Erie Surge, Seiche and Waves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farhadzadeh, A.; Hashemi, M. R.

    2016-02-01

    Lake Erie, the fourth largest in surface area, smallest in volume and shallowest among the Great Lakes is approximately 400 km long and 90 km wide. Short term lake level variations are due to storm surge generated by high winds and moving pressure systems over the lake mainly in the southwest-northeast direction, along the lakes longitudinal axis. The historical wave data from three active offshore buoys shows that significant wave height can exceed 5 m in the eastern and central basins. The long-term lake level data show that storm surge can reach up to 3 m in eastern Lake Erie. Owing its shallow depth, Lake Erie frequently experiences seiching motions, the low frequency oscillations that are initiated by storm surge. The seiches whose first mode of oscillations has a period of nearly 14.2 hours can last from several hours to days. In this study, the Lake Erie potential for power generation, primarily using storm surge and seiche and also waves are assessed. Given the cyclic lake level variations due to storm-induced seiching, a concept similar to that of tidal range development is utilized to assess the potential of storm surge and seiche energy harvesting mechanisms for power generation. In addition, wave energy resources of the Lake is characterized -. To achieve these objectives, the following steps are taken : (1) Frequency of occurrence for extreme storm surge and wave events is determined using extreme value analysis such as Peak-Over-Threshold method for the long-term water level and wave data; (2) Spatial and temporal variations of wave height, storm surge and seiche are characterized. The characterization is carried out using the wave and storm surge outputs from numerical simulation of a number of historical extreme events. The coupled ADCIRC and SWAN model is utilized for the modeling; (3) Assessment of the potentials for marine renewable power generation in Lake Erie is made. The approach can be extended to the other lakes in the Great Lakes region.

  1. Assessing storm events for energy meteorology: using media and scientific reports to track a North Sea autumn storm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kettle, Anthony

    2016-04-01

    Important issues for energy meteorology are to assess meteorological conditions for normal operating conditions and extreme events for the ultimate limit state of engineering structures. For the offshore environment in northwest Europe, energy meteorology encompasses weather conditions relevant for petroleum production infrastructure and also the new field of offshore wind energy production. Autumn and winter storms are an important issue for offshore operations in the North Sea. The weather in this region is considered as challenging for extreme meteorological events as the Gulf of Mexico with its attendant hurricane risk. The rise of the Internet and proliferation of digital recording devices has placed a much greater amount of information in the public domain than was available to national meteorological agencies even 20 years ago. This contribution looks at reports of meteorology and infrastructure damage from a storm in the autumn of 2006 to trace the spatial and temporal record of meteorological events. Media reports give key information to assess the events of the storm. The storm passed over northern Europe between Oct.31-Nov. 2, 2006, and press reports from the time indicate that its most important feature was a high surge that inundated coastal areas. Sections of the Dutch and German North Sea coast were affected, and there was record flooding in Denmark and East Germany in the southern Baltic Sea. Extreme wind gusts were also reported that were strong enough to damage roofs and trees, and there was even tornado recorded near the Dutch-German border. Offshore, there were a series of damage reports from ship and platforms that were linked with sea state, and reports of rogue waves were explicitly mentioned. Many regional government authorities published summaries of geophysical information related to the storm, and these form part of a regular series of online winter storm reports that started as a public service about 15 years ago. Depending on the

  2. Shelf sediment transport during hurricanes Katrina and Rita

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Kehui; Mickey, Rangley C.; Chen, Qin; Harris, Courtney K.; Hetland, Robert D.; Hu, Kelin; Wang, Jiaze

    2016-05-01

    Hurricanes can greatly modify the sedimentary record, but our coastal scientific community has rather limited capability to predict hurricane-induced sediment deposition. A three-dimensional sediment transport model was developed in the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) to study seabed erosion and deposition on the Louisiana shelf in response to Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in the year 2005. Sensitivity tests were performed on both erosional and depositional processes for a wide range of erosional rates and settling velocities, and uncertainty analysis was done on critical shear stresses using the polynomial chaos approximation method. A total of 22 model runs were performed in sensitivity and uncertainty tests. Estimated maximum erosional depths were sensitive to the inputs, but horizontal erosional patterns seemed to be controlled mainly by hurricane tracks, wave-current combined shear stresses, seabed grain sizes, and shelf bathymetry. During the passage of two hurricanes, local resuspension and deposition dominated the sediment transport mechanisms. Hurricane Katrina followed a shelf-perpendicular track before making landfall and its energy dissipated rapidly within about 48 h along the eastern Louisiana coast. In contrast, Hurricane Rita followed a more shelf-oblique track and disturbed the seabed extensively during its 84-h passage from the Alabama-Mississippi border to the Louisiana-Texas border. Conditions to either side of Hurricane Rita's storm track differed substantially, with the region to the east having stronger winds, taller waves and thus deeper erosions. This study indicated that major hurricanes can disturb the shelf at centimeter to meter levels. Each of these two hurricanes suspended seabed sediment mass that far exceeded the annual sediment inputs from the Mississippi and Atchafalaya Rivers, but the net transport from shelves to estuaries is yet to be determined. Future studies should focus on the modeling of sediment exchange between

  3. Using data envelopment analysis to evaluate the performance of post-hurricane electric power restoration activities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reilly, Allison C.; Davidson, Rachel A.; Nozick, Linda K.; Chen, Thomas; Guikema, Seth D.

    2016-01-01

    Post-hurricane restoration of electric power is attracting increasing scrutiny as customers’ tolerance for even short power interruptions decreases. At the peak, 8.5 million customers were without power after Hurricane Sandy and over 1 million customers were without power more than a week after the storm made landfall. Currently, restoration processes are typically evaluated on a case-by-case basis by a regional public service commission or similar body and lack systematic comparisons to other restoration experiences. This paper introduces a framework using data envelopment analysis to help evaluate post-hurricane restorations through comparison with the experiences of other companies in similar storms. The method accounts for the variable severity of the hurricanes themselves, so that companies are not penalized for outages that are long only because the hurricane that caused them was particularly severe. The analysis is illustrated through an application comparing 27 recent post-hurricane restoration experiences across 13 different electric power companies in the United States. The results of the study show some consistency in performance among individual utilities after the hurricanes they experience. The method could be applied to other types of infrastructure systems and other extreme events as well. - Highlights: • A Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) framework is developed to compare post- hurricane power-outage restoration performance. • Hurricane severity is considered, so that utilities are not penalized for long outages caused by severe storms. • A case study using real data compares 27 recent post-hurricane restoration experiences. • The results of the study show utilities tend to perform consistently after the hurricanes they experience.

  4. Satellite Assessment of Bio-Optical Properties of Northern Gulf of Mexico Coastal Waters Following Hurricanes Katrina and Rita

    OpenAIRE

    Lohrenz, Steven E.; Cai, Wei-Jun; Chen, Xiaogang; Tuel, Merritt

    2008-01-01

    The impacts of major tropical storms events on coastal waters include sediment resuspension, intense water column mixing, and increased delivery of terrestrial materials into coastal waters. We examined satellite imagery acquired by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) ocean color sensor aboard the Aqua spacecraft following two major hurricane events: Hurricane Katrina, which made landfall on 29 August 2005, and Hurricane Rita, which made landfall on 24 September. MODIS A...

  5. Mapping the Extent and Magnitude of Severe Flooding Induced by Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria with Sentinel-1 SAR and InSAR Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, B.; Koirala, R.; Oliver-Cabrera, T.; Wdowinski, S.; Osmanoglu, B.

    2017-12-01

    Hurricanes can cause winds, rainfall and storm surge, all of which could result in flooding. Between August and September 2017, Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria made landfall over Texas, Florida and Puerto Rico causing destruction and damages. Flood mapping is important for water management and to estimate risks and property damage. Though water gauges are able to monitor water levels, they are normally distributed sparsely. To map flooding products of these extreme events, we use Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) observations acquired by the European satellite constellation Sentinel-1. We obtained two acquisitions from before each flooding event, a single acquisition during the hurricane, and two after each event, a total of five acquisitions. We use both amplitude and phase observations to map extent and magnitude of flooding respectively. To map flooding extents, we use amplitude images from before, after and if possible during the hurricane pass. A calibration is used to convert the image raw data to backscatter coefficient, termed sigma nought. We generate a composite of the two image layers using red and green bands to show the change of sigma nought between acquisitions, which directly reflects the extent of flooding. Because inundation can result with either an increase or decrease of sigma nought values depending on the surface scattering characteristics, we map flooded areas in location where sigma nought changes were above a detection threshold. To study magnitude of flooding we study Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) phase changes. Changes in the water level can be detected by the radar when the signal is reflected away from water surface and bounces again by another object (e.g. trees and/or buildings) known as double bounce phase. To generate meaningful interferograms, we compare phase information with the nearest water gauge records to verify our results. Preliminary results show that the three hurricanes caused flooding condition over

  6. 30 CFR 250.192 - What reports and statistics must I submit relating to a hurricane, earthquake, or other natural...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... relating to a hurricane, earthquake, or other natural occurrence? 250.192 Section 250.192 Mineral Resources... statistics must I submit relating to a hurricane, earthquake, or other natural occurrence? (a) You must... tropical storm, or an earthquake. Statistics include facilities and rigs evacuated and the amount of...

  7. High Temporal Resolution Tropospheric Wind Profile Observations at NASA Kennedy Space Center During Hurricane Irma

    Science.gov (United States)

    Decker, Ryan K.; Barbre, Robert E., Jr.; Huddleston, Lisa; Brauer, Thomas; Wilfong, Timothy

    2018-01-01

    The NASA Kennedy Space Center (KSC) operates a 48-MHz Tropospheric/Stratospheric Doppler Radar Wind Profiler (TDRWP) on a continual basis generating wind profiles between 2-19 km in the support of space launch vehicle operations. A benefit of the continual operability of the system is the ability to provide unique observations of severe weather events such as hurricanes. Over the past two Atlantic Hurricane seasons the TDRWP has made high temporal resolution wind profile observations of Hurricane Irma in 2017 and Hurricane Matthew in 2016. Hurricane Irma was responsible for power outages to approximately 2/3 of Florida's population during its movement over the state(Stein,2017). An overview of the TDRWP system configuration, brief summary of Hurricanes Irma and Matthew storm track in proximity to KSC, characteristics of the tropospheric wind observations from the TDRWP during both events, and discussion of the dissemination of TDRWP data during the event will be presented.

  8. High Resolution Modeling of Hurricanes in a Climate Context

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knutson, T. R.

    2007-12-01

    Modeling of tropical cyclone activity in a climate context initially focused on simulation of relatively weak tropical storm-like disturbances as resolved by coarse grid (200 km) global models. As computing power has increased, multi-year simulations with global models of grid spacing 20-30 km have become feasible. Increased resolution also allowed for simulation storms of increasing intensity, and some global models generate storms of hurricane strength, depending on their resolution and other factors, although detailed hurricane structure is not simulated realistically. Results from some recent high resolution global model studies are reviewed. An alternative for hurricane simulation is regional downscaling. An early approach was to embed an operational (GFDL) hurricane prediction model within a global model solution, either for 5-day case studies of particular model storm cases, or for "idealized experiments" where an initial vortex is inserted into an idealized environments derived from global model statistics. Using this approach, hurricanes up to category five intensity can be simulated, owing to the model's relatively high resolution (9 km grid) and refined physics. Variants on this approach have been used to provide modeling support for theoretical predictions that greenhouse warming will increase the maximum intensities of hurricanes. These modeling studies also simulate increased hurricane rainfall rates in a warmer climate. The studies do not address hurricane frequency issues, and vertical shear is neglected in the idealized studies. A recent development is the use of regional model dynamical downscaling for extended (e.g., season-length) integrations of hurricane activity. In a study for the Atlantic basin, a non-hydrostatic model with grid spacing of 18km is run without convective parameterization, but with internal spectral nudging toward observed large-scale (basin wavenumbers 0-2) atmospheric conditions from reanalyses. Using this approach, our

  9. Tide Gauge and Satellite Altimetry Integration for Storm Surge Prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Ole Baltazar; Cheng, Yongcun; Deng, X.

    2013-01-01

    of the Northeast Australia, we have investigated several large cyclones causing much destruction when they hit the coast. One of these being the Cyclone Larry, which hit the Queensland coast in March 2006 and caused both losses of lives as well as huge devastation. Here we demonstrate the importance of integrating...

  10. Comparative risk assessments for Guadeloupe: earthquakes and storm surge

    OpenAIRE

    Réveillère , Arnaud; Monfort , Daniel; Lecacheux , Sophie; Grisanti , Ludovic; Muller , Héloise; Bertil , Didier; Rohmer , Jérémy; Sedan , Olivier; Douglas , John; Baills , Audrey; Modaressi , Hormoz

    2012-01-01

    In France, risk assessments for natural hazards are usually carried out separately and decision makers lack comprehensive information. Moreover, since the cause of the hazard (e.g. meteorological, geological) and the physical phenomenon that causes damage (e.g. inundation, ground shaking) may be fundamentally different, the quantitative comparison of single risk assessments that were not conducted in a compatible framework is not straightforward. Comprehensive comparative risk assessments exi...

  11. Performance of Oil Infrastructure during Hurricane Harvey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernier, C.; Kameshwar, S.; Padgett, J.

    2017-12-01

    Three major refining centers - Corpus Christi, Houston, and Beaumont/Port Arthur - were affected during Hurricane Harvey. Damage to oil infrastructure, especially aboveground storage tanks (ASTs), caused the release of more than a million gallons of hazardous chemicals in the environment. The objective of this presentation is to identify and gain a better understanding of the different damage mechanisms that occurred during Harvey in order to avoid similar failures during future hurricane events. First, a qualitative description of the damage suffered by ASTs during Hurricane Harvey is presented. Analysis of aerial imagery and incident reports indicate that almost all spills were caused by rainfall and the associated flooding. The largest spill was caused by two large ASTs that floated due to flooding in the Houston Ship Channel releasing 500,000 gallons of gasoline. The vulnerability of ASTs subjected to flooding was already well known and documented from previous storm events. In addition to flooding, Harvey also exposed the vulnerability of ASTs with external floating roof to extreme rainfall; more than 15 floating roofs sank or tilted due to rain water accumulation on them, releasing pollutants in the atmosphere. Secondly, recent fragility models developed by the authors are presented which allow structural vulnerability assessment of floating roofs during rainfall events and ASTs during flood events. The fragility models are then coupled with Harvey rainfall and flood empirical data to identify the conditions (i.e.: internal liquid height or density, drainage system design and efficiency, etc.) that could have led to the observed failures during Hurricane Harvey. Finally, the conditions causing tank failures are studied to propose mitigation measures to prevent future AST failures during severe storm, flood, or rainfall events.

  12. Electrodynamics properties of auroral surges

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Robinson, R.M.; Vondrak, R.R.

    1990-01-01

    The incoherent scatter radar technique provides an excellent means to study the ionization and electric fields associated with auroral precipitation events. One of the most intense and dynamic auroral events is the so-called surge or breakup aurora that accompanies auroral substorms. For their purposes they define a surge as a transient intensification of auroral precipitation that occurs simultaneously with a pronounced negative bay in the ground magnetometer data. They present data obtained during five such events in 1980 and 1981. Prior to the surge, auroral forms move equatorward, develop ray structure, and intensify. The surge is identified by an apparent poleward motion of the aurora producing aurorally associated ionization that extends over several hundred kilometers in latitude. The presurge auroral forms are embedded in a region of northward electric field. The auroral forms that comprise the surge span a region within which the meridional electric field is small and at times southward. A westward electric field is often but not always present within the surge. The behavior of the westward electric field is significantly different from the north-south field, in that sharp spatial gradients are absent even in very disturbed conditions. Although the westward Hall currents are mostly responsible for the negative bays that accompany the surge, at times the westward Pedersen current sustained by the westward electric field can be important. Sudden variations in the H component of the ground magnetogram can be caused by motions of the aurora or by temporal variations in the fields or conductivities. They present a model that simulates the observed changes in electric field and precipitation that accompany surges. The perturbation in the electric field produced by the surge is simulated by adding negative potential in regions of intense precipitation

  13. Hurricane Mitch: Peak Discharge for Selected River Reachesin Honduras

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Mark E.; Phillips, Jeffrey V.; Spahr, Norman E.

    2002-01-01

    Hurricane Mitch began as a tropical depression in the Caribbean Sea on 22 October 1998. By 26 October, Mitch had strengthened to a Category 5 storm as defined by the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale (National Climate Data Center, 1999a), and on 27 October was threatening the northern coast of Honduras (fig. 1). After making landfall 2 days later (29 October), the storm drifted south and west across Honduras, wreaking destruction throughout the country before reaching the Guatemalan border on 31 October. According to the National Climate Data Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (National Climate Data Center, 1999b), Hurricane Mitch ranks among the five strongest storms on record in the Atlantic Basin in terms of its sustained winds, barometric pressure, and duration. Hurricane Mitch also was one of the worst Atlantic storms in terms of loss of life and property. The regionwide death toll was estimated to be more than 9,000; thousands of people were reported missing. Economic losses in the region were more than $7.5 billion (U.S. Agency for International Development, 1999). Honduras suffered the most widespread devastation during the storm. More than 5,000 deaths, and economic losses of more than $4 billion, were reported by the Government of Honduras. Honduran officials estimated that Hurricane Mitch destroyed 50 years of economic development. In addition to the human and economic losses, intense flooding and landslides scarred the Honduran landscape - hydrologic and geomorphologic processes throughout the country likely will be affected for many years. As part of the U.S. Government's response to the disaster, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) conducted post-flood measurements of peak discharge at 16 river sites throughout Honduras (fig. 2). Such measurements, termed 'indirect' measurements, are used to determine peak flows when direct measurements (using current meters or dye studies, for example) cannot be made. Indirect measurements of

  14. Shifts in biomass and productivity for a subtropical dry forest in response to simulated elevated hurricane disturbances

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holm, Jennifer A.; Van Bloem, Skip J.; Larocque, Guy R.; Shugart, Herman H.

    2017-01-01

    Caribbean tropical forests are subject to hurricane disturbances of great variability. In addition to natural storm incongruity, climate change can alter storm formation, duration, frequency, and intensity. This model -based investigation assessed the impacts of multiple storms of different intensities and occurrence frequencies on the long-term dynamics of subtropical dry forests in Puerto Rico. Using the previously validated individual-based gap model ZELIG-TROP, we developed a new hurricane damage routine and parameterized it with site- and species-specific hurricane effects. A baseline case with the reconstructed historical hurricane regime represented the control condition. Ten treatment cases, reflecting plausible shifts in hurricane regimes, manipulated both hurricane return time (i.e. frequency) and hurricane intensity. The treatment-related change in carbon storage and fluxes were reported as changes in aboveground forest biomass (AGB), net primary productivity (NPP), and in the aboveground carbon partitioning components, or annual carbon accumulation (ACA). Increasing the frequency of hurricanes decreased aboveground biomass by between 5% and 39%, and increased NPP between 32% and 50%. Decadal-scale biomass fluctuations were damped relative to the control. In contrast, increasing hurricane intensity did not create a large shift in the long-term average forest structure, NPP, or ACA from that of historical hurricane regimes, but produced large fluctuations in biomass. Decreasing both the hurricane intensity and frequency by 50% produced the highest values of biomass and NPP. For the control scenario and with increased hurricane intensity, ACA was negative, which indicated that the aboveground forest components acted as a carbon source. However, with an increase in the frequency of storms or decreased storms, the total ACA was positive due to shifts in leaf production, annual litterfall, and coarse woody debris inputs, indicating a carbon sink into the

  15. High-Amplitude Atlantic Hurricanes Produce Disparate Mortality in Small, Low-Income Countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dresser, Caleb; Allison, Jeroan; Broach, John; Smith, Mary-Elise; Milsten, Andrew

    2016-12-01

    Hurricanes cause substantial mortality, especially in developing nations, and climate science predicts that powerful hurricanes will increase in frequency during the coming decades. This study examined the association of wind speed and national economic conditions with mortality in a large sample of hurricane events in small countries. Economic, meteorological, and fatality data for 149 hurricane events in 16 nations between 1958 and 2011 were analyzed. Mortality rate was modeled with negative binomial regression implemented by generalized estimating equations to account for variable population exposure, sequence of storm events, exposure of multiple islands to the same storm, and nonlinear associations. Low-amplitude storms caused little mortality regardless of economic status. Among high-amplitude storms (Saffir-Simpson category 4 or 5), expected mortality rate was 0.72 deaths per 100,000 people (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.16-1.28) for nations in the highest tertile of per capita gross domestic product (GDP) compared with 25.93 deaths per 100,000 people (95% CI: 13.30-38.55) for nations with low per capita GDP. Lower per capita GDP and higher wind speeds were associated with greater mortality rates in small countries. Excessive fatalities occurred when powerful storms struck resource-poor nations. Predictions of increasing storm amplitude over time suggest increasing disparity between death rates unless steps are taken to modify the risk profiles of poor nations. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2016;10:832-837).

  16. The effects of Hurricane Sandy on trauma center admissions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curran, T; Bogdanovski, D A; Hicks, A S; Bilaniuk, J W; Adams, J M; Siegel, B K; DiFazio, L T; Durling-Grover, R; Nemeth, Z H

    2018-02-01

    Hurricane Sandy was a particularly unusual storm with regard to both size and location of landfall. The storm landed in New Jersey, which is unusual for a tropical storm of such scale, and created hazardous conditions which caused injury to residents during the storm and in the months following. This study aims to describe differences in trauma center admissions and patterns of injury during this time period when compared to a period with no such storm. Data were collected for this study from patients who were admitted to the trauma center at Morristown Medical Center during Hurricane Sandy or the ensuing cleanup efforts (patients admitted between 29 October 2012 and 27 December 2012) as well as a control group consisting of all patients admitted to the trauma center between 29 October 2013 and 27 December 2013. Patient information was collected to compare the admissions of the trauma center during the period of the storm and cleanup to the control period. A total of 419 cases were identified in the storm and cleanup period. 427 were identified for the control. Striking injuries were more common in the storm and cleanup group by 266.7% (p = 0.0107); cuts were more common by 650.8% (p = 0.0044). Medical records indicate that many of these injuries were caused by Hurricane Sandy. Self-inflicted injuries were more common by 301.3% (p = 0.0294). There were no significant differences in the total number of patients, mortality, or injury severity score between the two cohorts. The data we have collected show that the conditions caused by Hurricane Sandy and the following cleanup had a significant effect on injury patterns, with more patients having been injured by being struck by falling or thrown objects, cut while using tools, or causing self-inflicted injuries. These changes, particularly during the cleanup period, are indicative of environmental changes following the storm which increase these risks of injury.

  17. Cooperative Hurricane Network Obs

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Observations from the Cooperative Hurricane Reporting Network (CHURN), a special network of stations that provided observations when tropical cyclones approached the...

  18. Hurricane Katrina Sediment Sampling

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Hurricane Katrina made landfall in August 2005, causing widespread devastation along the Gulf Coast of the United States. EPA emergency response personnel worked...

  19. Hurricane Katrina Water Sampling

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Hurricane Katrina made landfall in August 2005, causing widespread devastation along the Gulf Coast of the United States. EPA emergency response personnel worked...

  20. Hurricane Katrina Soil Sampling

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Hurricane Katrina made landfall in August 2005, causing widespread devastation along the Gulf Coast of the United States. EPA emergency response personnel worked...

  1. Tropical North Atlantic ocean-atmosphere interactions synchronize forest carbon losses from hurricanes and Amazon fires

    OpenAIRE

    Chen, Y; Randerson, JT; Morton, DC

    2015-01-01

    ©2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. We describe a climate mode synchronizing forest carbon losses from North and South America by analyzing time series of tropical North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs), landfall hurricanes and tropical storms, and Amazon fires during 1995-2013. Years with anomalously high tropical North Atlantic SSTs during March-June were often followed by a more active hurricane season and a larger number of satellite-detected fires in the south...

  2. Geomagnetic storms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McNamara, A.G.

    1980-01-01

    Disturbances due to geomagnetic storms can affect the functioning of communications satellites and of power lines and other long conductors. Two general classes of geomagnetic activity can be distinguished: ionospheric current flow (the auroral electrojet), and magnetospheric compression. Super magnetic storms, such as the one of August 1972, can occur at any time and average about 17 occurrences per century. Electrical transmission systems can be made more tolerant of such events at a price, but the most effective way to minimize damage is by better operator training coupled with effective early warning systems. (LL)

  3. The Role of Porosity in the Formation of Coastal Boulder Deposits - Hurricane Versus Tsunami

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spiske, M.; Boeroecz, Z.; Bahlburg, H.

    2007-12-01

    Coastal boulder deposits are a consequence of high-energy wave impacts, such as storms, hurricanes or tsunami. Distinguishing parameters between storm, hurricane and tsunami origin are distance of a deposit from the coast, boulder weight and inferred wave height. Formulas to calculate minimum wave heights of both storm and tsunami waves depend on accurate determination of boulder dimensions and lithology from the respective deposits. At present however, boulder porosity appears to be commonly neglected, leading to significant errors in determined bulk density, especially when boulders consist of reef or coral limestone. This limits precise calculations of wave heights and hampers a clear distinction between storm, hurricane and tsunami origin. Our study uses Archimedean and optical 3D-profilometry measurements for the determination of porosities and bulk densities of reef and coral limestone boulders from the islands of Aruba, Bonaire and Curaçao (ABC Islands, Netherlands Antilles). Due to the high porosities (up to 68 %) of the enclosed coral species, the weights of the reef rock boulders are as low as 20 % of previously calculated values. Hence minimum calculated heights both for tsunami and hurricane waves are smaller than previously proposed. We show that hurricane action appears to be the likely depositional mechanism for boulders on the ABC Islands, since 1) our calculations result in tsunami wave heights which do not permit the overtopping of coastal platforms on the ABC Islands, 2) boulder fields lie on the windward (eastern) sides of the islands, 3) recent hurricanes transported boulders up to 35 m3 and 4) the scarcity of tsunami events affecting the coasts of the ABC Islands compared to frequent impacts of tropical storms and hurricanes.

  4. Estimating the spatial distribution of power outages during hurricanes in the Gulf coast region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Han, S.-R.; Guikema, Seth D.; Quiring, Steven M.; Lee, Kyung-Ho; Rosowsky, David; Davidson, Rachel A.

    2009-01-01

    Hurricanes have caused severe damage to the electric power system throughout the Gulf coast region of the US, and electric power is critical to post-hurricane disaster response as well as to long-term recovery for impacted areas. Managing power outage risk and preparing for post-storm recovery efforts requires accurate methods for estimating the number and location of power outages. This paper builds on past work on statistical power outage estimation models to develop, test, and demonstrate a statistical power outage risk estimation model for the Gulf Coast region of the US. Previous work used binary hurricane-indicator variables representing particular hurricanes in order to achieve a good fit to the past data. To use these models for predicting power outages during future hurricanes, one must implicitly assume that an approaching hurricane is similar to the average of the past hurricanes. The model developed in this paper replaces these indicator variables with physically measurable variables, enabling future predictions to be based on only well-understood characteristics of hurricanes. The models were developed using data about power outages during nine hurricanes in three states served by a large, investor-owned utility company in the Gulf Coast region

  5. Hurricane Katrina as a "teachable moment"

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. H. Glantz

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available By American standards, New Orleans is a very old, very popular city in the southern part of the United States. It is located in Louisiana at the mouth of the Mississippi River, a river which drains about 40% of the Continental United States, making New Orleans a major port city. It is also located in an area of major oil reserves onshore, as well as offshore, in the Gulf of Mexico. Most people know New Orleans as a tourist hotspot; especially well-known is the Mardi Gras season at the beginning of Lent. People refer to the city as the "Big Easy". A recent biography of the city refers to it as the place where the emergence of modern tourism began. A multicultural city with a heavy French influence, it was part of the Louisiana Purchase from France in early 1803, when the United States bought it, doubling the size of the United States at that time.

    Today, in the year 2007, New Orleans is now known for the devastating impacts it withstood during the onslaught of Hurricane Katrina in late August 2005. Eighty percent of the city was submerged under flood waters. Almost two years have passed, and many individuals and government agencies are still coping with the hurricane's consequences. And insurance companies have been withdrawing their coverage for the region.

    The 2005 hurricane season set a record, in the sense that there were 28 named storms that calendar year. For the first time in hurricane forecast history, hurricane forecasters had to resort to the use of Greek letters to name tropical storms in the Atlantic and Gulf (Fig.~1.

    Hurricane Katrina was a Category 5 hurricane when it was in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico, after having passed across southern Florida. At landfall, Katrina's winds decreased in speed and it was relabeled as a Category 4. It devolved into a Category 3 hurricane as it passed inland when it did most of its damage. Large expanses of the city were inundated, many parts under water on

  6. Hurricane Katrina as a "teachable moment"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glantz, M. H.

    2008-04-01

    By American standards, New Orleans is a very old, very popular city in the southern part of the United States. It is located in Louisiana at the mouth of the Mississippi River, a river which drains about 40% of the Continental United States, making New Orleans a major port city. It is also located in an area of major oil reserves onshore, as well as offshore, in the Gulf of Mexico. Most people know New Orleans as a tourist hotspot; especially well-known is the Mardi Gras season at the beginning of Lent. People refer to the city as the "Big Easy". A recent biography of the city refers to it as the place where the emergence of modern tourism began. A multicultural city with a heavy French influence, it was part of the Louisiana Purchase from France in early 1803, when the United States bought it, doubling the size of the United States at that time. Today, in the year 2007, New Orleans is now known for the devastating impacts it withstood during the onslaught of Hurricane Katrina in late August 2005. Eighty percent of the city was submerged under flood waters. Almost two years have passed, and many individuals and government agencies are still coping with the hurricane's consequences. And insurance companies have been withdrawing their coverage for the region. The 2005 hurricane season set a record, in the sense that there were 28 named storms that calendar year. For the first time in hurricane forecast history, hurricane forecasters had to resort to the use of Greek letters to name tropical storms in the Atlantic and Gulf (Fig.~1). Hurricane Katrina was a Category 5 hurricane when it was in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico, after having passed across southern Florida. At landfall, Katrina's winds decreased in speed and it was relabeled as a Category 4. It devolved into a Category 3 hurricane as it passed inland when it did most of its damage. Large expanses of the city were inundated, many parts under water on the order of 20 feet or so. The Ninth Ward, heavily

  7. Gathering storm. The human cost of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cowell, O.; Chang, I.

    2000-09-01

    Friends of the Earth International demonstrates the urgency of action needed to halt climate change (Part 1). Personal testimonies from survivors of Hurricane Mitch, the Mozambique floods and other events give a chilling insight of what may lie ahead for more of us in the future (Part 2). Extreme high-temperature events, droughts, floods, cyclones and storm surges with knock-on effects for ecosystems, fires, pest outbreaks, human health, our settlements and food security (Part 3). Part 4 looks at which countries are blocking action on climate change and proposes solutions for the way forward. Much deeper cuts in greenhouse gas emissions, based on an equitable sharing of the atmosphere, are needed if dangerous climate change is to be averted. Global protection will only happen when all parties at the climate summit acknowledge the real risks of climate change and their own responsibilities in improving the situation through emissions reductions. Industrialised countries must make much deeper cuts in their greenhouse gas emissions of as much as 80-90% to keep climate change within acceptable limits while allowing developing countries space to develop, Friends of the Earth International calls on governments to ensure that decisions taken at the CoP-6 in The Hague, Netherlands (1) Ensure that the Kyoto Protocol results in real and permanent emissions reductions through the development of renewable energy sources and energy efficiency measures; (2) Commit industrialised countries to achieving 80% of their Kyoto objective through emissions reductions at home; and (3) Enshrine principles of equity in the framework for emission reductions in the next and future commitment periods based on an equal per capita approach and ecological limits [nl

  8. A Simulation Tool for Hurricane Evacuation Planning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel J. Fonseca

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Atlantic hurricanes and severe tropical storms are a serious threat for the communities in the Gulf of Mexico region. Such storms are violent and destructive. In response to these dangers, coastal evacuation may be ordered. This paper describes the development of a simulation model to analyze the movement of vehicles through I-65, a major US Interstate highway that runs north off the coastal City of Mobile, Alabama, towards the State of Tennessee, during a massive evacuation originated by a disastrous event such a hurricane. The constructed simulation platform consists of a primary and two secondary models. The primary model is based on the entry of vehicles from the 20 on-ramps to I-65. The two secondary models assist the primary model with related traffic events such as car breakdowns and accidents, traffic control measures, interarrival signaling, and unforeseen emergency incidents, among others. Statistical testing was performed on the data generated by the simulation model to indentify variation in relevant traffic variables affecting the timely flow of vehicles travelling north. The performed statistical analysis focused on the closing of alternative on-ramps throughout the Interstate.

  9. Hurricane Harvey Building Damage Assessment Using UAV Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yeom, J.; Jung, J.; Chang, A.; Choi, I.

    2017-12-01

    Hurricane Harvey which was extremely destructive major hurricane struck southern Texas, U.S.A on August 25, causing catastrophic flooding and storm damages. We visited Rockport suffered severe building destruction and conducted UAV (Unmanned Aerial Vehicle) surveying for building damage assessment. UAV provides very high resolution images compared with traditional remote sensing data. In addition, prompt and cost-effective damage assessment can be performed regardless of several limitations in other remote sensing platforms such as revisit interval of satellite platforms, complicated flight plan in aerial surveying, and cloud amounts. In this study, UAV flight and GPS surveying were conducted two weeks after hurricane damage to generate an orthomosaic image and a DEM (Digital Elevation Model). 3D region growing scheme has been proposed to quantitatively estimate building damages considering building debris' elevation change and spectral difference. The result showed that the proposed method can be used for high definition building damage assessment in a time- and cost-effective way.

  10. Performance assessment of topologically diverse power systems subjected to hurricane events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Winkler, James; Duenas-Osorio, Leonardo; Stein, Robert; Subramanian, Devika

    2010-01-01

    Large tropical cyclones cause severe damage to major cities along the United States Gulf Coast annually. A diverse collection of engineering and statistical models are currently used to estimate the geographical distribution of power outage probabilities stemming from these hurricanes to aid in storm preparedness and recovery efforts. Graph theoretic studies of power networks have separately attempted to link abstract network topology to transmission and distribution system reliability. However, few works have employed both techniques to unravel the intimate connection between network damage arising from storms, topology, and system reliability. This investigation presents a new methodology combining hurricane damage predictions and topological assessment to characterize the impact of hurricanes upon power system reliability. Component fragility models are applied to predict failure probability for individual transmission and distribution power network elements simultaneously. The damage model is calibrated using power network component failure data for Harris County, TX, USA caused by Hurricane Ike in September of 2008, resulting in a mean outage prediction error of 15.59% and low standard deviation. Simulated hurricane events are then applied to measure the hurricane reliability of three topologically distinct transmission networks. The rate of system performance decline is shown to depend on their topological structure. Reliability is found to correlate directly with topological features, such as network meshedness, centrality, and clustering, and the compact irregular ring mesh topology is identified as particularly favorable, which can influence regional lifeline policy for retrofit and hardening activities to withstand hurricane events.

  11. Hurricane Public Health Research Center at Louisiana State University a Case of Academia Being Prepared

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Heerden, I. L.

    2006-12-01

    and chemicals in these standing flood waters would set the stage for massive disease outbreaks and prolonged chemical exposure. Before Katrina, population evacuation behavior had been determined, computer models could be used to predict storm surge flooding, government databases and GIS technology allowed documentation of at-risk areas, probable chemical and sewerage release sites had been mapped, tropical disease experts and social scientists had determined possible public health impacts; that injured and displaced animal pets and wild animals would be a major problem had been identified; and, an interactive GIS database was available for utilization in all aspects of the assessment and remediation post landfall. The value of this project has been many-fold. First, before Katrina it had a positive impact on emergency preparedness in the state of Louisiana. Second, during the hurricane Katrina catastrophe the project offered a major service to the state as the various data sets and research outputs were extensively used throughout the flooding thus reducing deaths, disease, pain, and suffering. Third, the model of academia aiding in disaster science and management is being exported nationally and internationally. Finally, our research results are applicable to other complex disasters such as earthquakes, tornadoes, chemical spills or terrorism.

  12. Hurricanes, climate change and the cholera epidemic in Puerto Rico of 1855-1856.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christenson, Bernard

    2008-01-01

    Hurricanes and global climate changes may affect the environmental factors of cholera dynamics in warm coastal areas, vulnerable to seasonal or sporadic outbreaks. The cholera epidemic of Puerto Rico in 1855-1856 had a profound effect on the Puerto Rican society; but it was not influenced by any climatic events, such as preceding hurricanes or storms based on past documentary sources. Particularly, the environmental non-toxigenic strains of Vibrio Cholerae in Puerto Rican water sources can maintain their pathogenic potential for sporadic or erratic toxigenic cholera outbreaks--if a "perfect storm" ever occurs.

  13. Emergency department surge: models and practical implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nager, Alan L; Khanna, Kajal

    2009-08-01

    Emergency Department crowding has long been described. Despite the daily challenges of managing emergency department volume and acuity; a surge response during a disaster entails even greater challenges including collaboration, intervention, and resourcefulness to effectively carry out pediatric disaster management. Understanding surge and how to respond with appropriate planning will lead to success. To achieve this, we sought to analyze models of surge; review regional and national data outlining surge challenges and factors that impact surge; and to outline potential solutions. We conducted a systemic review and included articles and documents that best described the theoretical and practical basis of surge response. We organized the systematic review according to the following questions: What are the elements and models that are delineated by the concept of surge? What is the basis for surge response based on regional and national published sources? What are the broad global solutions? What are the major lessons observed that will impact effective surge capacity? Multiple models of surge are described including public health, facility-based and community-based; a 6-tiered response system; and intrinsic or extrinsic surge capacity. In addition, essential components (4 S's of surge response) are described along with regional and national data outlining surge challenges, impacting factors, global solutions, and lesions observed. There are numerous shortcomings regionally and nationally affecting our ability to provide an effective and coordinated surge response. Planning, education, and training will lead to an effective pediatric disaster management response.

  14. A Climatological Study of Hurricane Force Extratropical Cyclones

    OpenAIRE

    Laiyemo, Razaak O.

    2012-01-01

    Using data compiled by the National Weather Service Ocean Prediction Center, a hurricane force extratropical cyclone climatology is created for three cold seasons. Using the criteria of Sanders and Gyakum (1980), it is found that 75% of the 259 storms explosively deepened. The frequency maximum in the Atlantic basin is located to the southeast of Greenland. In the Pacific, two maxima to the east of Japan are identified. These results are in good agreement with previous studies, despite differ...

  15. Continental United States Hurricane Strikes

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Continental U.S. Hurricane Strikes Poster is our most popular poster which is updated annually. The poster includes all hurricanes that affected the U.S. since...

  16. Are inundation limit and maximum extent of sand useful for differentiating tsunamis and storms? An example from sediment transport simulations on the Sendai Plain, Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watanabe, Masashi; Goto, Kazuhisa; Bricker, Jeremy D.; Imamura, Fumihiko

    2018-02-01

    We examined the quantitative difference in the distribution of tsunami and storm deposits based on numerical simulations of inundation and sediment transport due to tsunami and storm events on the Sendai Plain, Japan. The calculated distance from the shoreline inundated by the 2011 Tohoku-oki tsunami was smaller than that inundated by storm surges from hypothetical typhoon events. Previous studies have assumed that deposits observed farther inland than the possible inundation limit of storm waves and storm surge were tsunami deposits. However, confirming only the extent of inundation is insufficient to distinguish tsunami and storm deposits, because the inundation limit of storm surges may be farther inland than that of tsunamis in the case of gently sloping coastal topography such as on the Sendai Plain. In other locations, where coastal topography is steep, the maximum inland inundation extent of storm surges may be only several hundred meters, so marine-sourced deposits that are distributed several km inland can be identified as tsunami deposits by default. Over both gentle and steep slopes, another difference between tsunami and storm deposits is the total volume deposited, as flow speed over land during a tsunami is faster than during a storm surge. Therefore, the total deposit volume could also be a useful proxy to differentiate tsunami and storm deposits.

  17. Hurricane Katrina: A Teachable Moment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertrand, Peggy

    2009-01-01

    This article presents suggestions for integrating the phenomenon of hurricanes into the teaching of high school fluid mechanics. Students come to understand core science concepts in the context of their impact upon both the environment and human populations. Suggestions for using information about hurricanes, particularly Hurricane Katrina, in a…

  18. A numerical study of wave-current interaction through surface and bottom stresses: Coastal ocean response to Hurricane Fran of 1996

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, L.; Pietrafesa, L. J.; Wu, K.

    2003-02-01

    A three-dimensional wave-current coupled modeling system is used to examine the influence of waves on coastal currents and sea level. This coupled modeling system consists of the wave model-WAM (Cycle 4) and the Princeton Ocean Model (POM). The results from this study show that it is important to incorporate surface wave effects into coastal storm surge and circulation models. Specifically, we find that (1) storm surge models without coupled surface waves generally under estimate not only the peak surge but also the coastal water level drop which can also cause substantial impact on the coastal environment, (2) introducing wave-induced surface stress effect into storm surge models can significantly improve storm surge prediction, (3) incorporating wave-induced bottom stress into the coupled wave-current model further improves storm surge prediction, and (4) calibration of the wave module according to minimum error in significant wave height does not necessarily result in an optimum wave module in a wave-current coupled system for current and storm surge prediction.

  19. The Importance of Hurricane Research to Life, Property, the Economy, and National Security.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Busalacchi, A. J.

    2017-12-01

    The devastating 2017 Atlantic hurricane season has brought into stark relief how much hurricane forecasts have improved - and how important it is to make them even better. Whereas the error in 48-hour track forecasts has been reduced by more than half, according to the National Hurricane Center, intensity forecasts remain challenging, especially with storms such as Harvey that strengthened from a tropical depression to a Category 4 hurricane in less than three days. The unusually active season, with Hurricane Irma sustaining 185-mph winds for a record 36 hours and two Atlantic hurricanes reaching 150-mph winds simultaneously for the first time, also highlighted what we do, and do not, know about how tropical cyclones will change as the climate warms. The extraordinary toll of Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria - which may ultimately be responsible for hundreds of deaths and an estimated $200 billion or more in damages - underscores why investments into improved forecasting must be a national priority. At NCAR and UCAR, scientists are working with their colleagues at federal agencies, the private sector, and the university community to advance our understanding of these deadly storms. Among their many projects, NCAR researchers are making experimental tropical cyclone forecasts using an innovative Earth system model that allows for variable resolution. We are working with NOAA to issue flooding, inundation, and streamflow forecasts for areas hit by hurricanes, and we have used extremely high-resolution regional models to simulate successfully the rapid hurricane intensification that has proved so difficult to predict. We are assessing ways to better predict the damage potential of tropical cyclones by looking beyond wind speed to consider such important factors as the size and forward motion of the storm. On the important question of climate change, scientists have experimented with running coupled climate models at a high enough resolution to spin up a hurricane

  20. Hurricane preparedness among elderly residents in South Florida.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kleier, Jo Ann; Krause, Deirdre; Ogilby, Terry

    2018-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to describe factors associated with hurricane preparation and to test a theoretical model of hurricane preparation decision process among a group of elderly residents living in a high-risk geographical area. This is a descriptive, correlational study. A convenience sample consisted of 188 English-speaking individuals who were aged 55 years or older. In addition to demographic information, two survey instruments were used. Theoretical constructs were operationalized through Moon's Hurricane Preparation Questionnaire. Hurricane preparedness was measured by self-reported responses to FEMA's inventory checklist, which addresses the recommended basic steps of preparation. The theoretical model of hurricane preparation decision process was supported. Main barriers to preparation are the need for cooperation from others and cost of preparation. Participants reported having taken many preparatory steps to shelter-in-place, but too few are prepared if their home were storm-damaged or they should have to evacuate. Findings are consistent with previous studies of samples drawn from similar populations. This report provides guidance as to how public health nurses can become involved with the population and develop interventions based on the constructs of the theoretical model. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  1. Hurricane Risk Variability along the Gulf of Mexico Coastline

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trepanier, Jill C.; Ellis, Kelsey N.; Tucker, Clay S.

    2015-01-01

    Hurricane risk characteristics are examined across the U. S. Gulf of Mexico coastline using a hexagonal tessellation. Using an extreme value model, parameters are collected representing the rate or λ (frequency), the scale or σ (range), and the shape or ξ (intensity) of the extreme wind distribution. These latent parameters and the 30-year return level are visualized across the grid. The greatest 30-year return levels are located toward the center of the Gulf of Mexico, and for inland locations, along the borders of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. Using a geographically weighted regression model, the relationship of these parameters to sea surface temperature (SST) is found to assess sensitivity to change. It is shown that as SSTs increase near the coast, the frequency of hurricanes in these grids decrease significantly. This reinforces the importance of SST in areas of likely tropical cyclogenesis in determining the number of hurricanes near the coast, along with SSTs along the lifespan of the storm, rather than simply local SST. The range of hurricane wind speeds experienced near Florida is shown to increase with increasing SSTs (insignificant), suggesting that increased temperatures may allow hurricanes to maintain their strength as they pass over the Florida peninsula. The modifiable areal unit problem is assessed using multiple grid sizes. Moran’s I and the local statistic G are calculated to examine spatial autocorrelation in the parameters. This research opens up future questions regarding rapid intensification and decay close to the coast and the relationship to changing SSTs. PMID:25767885

  2. Hurricane risk variability along the Gulf of Mexico coastline.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trepanier, Jill C; Ellis, Kelsey N; Tucker, Clay S

    2015-01-01

    Hurricane risk characteristics are examined across the U. S. Gulf of Mexico coastline using a hexagonal tessellation. Using an extreme value model, parameters are collected representing the rate or λ (frequency), the scale or σ (range), and the shape or ξ (intensity) of the extreme wind distribution. These latent parameters and the 30-year return level are visualized across the grid. The greatest 30-year return levels are located toward the center of the Gulf of Mexico, and for inland locations, along the borders of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. Using a geographically weighted regression model, the relationship of these parameters to sea surface temperature (SST) is found to assess sensitivity to change. It is shown that as SSTs increase near the coast, the frequency of hurricanes in these grids decrease significantly. This reinforces the importance of SST in areas of likely tropical cyclogenesis in determining the number of hurricanes near the coast, along with SSTs along the lifespan of the storm, rather than simply local SST. The range of hurricane wind speeds experienced near Florida is shown to increase with increasing SSTs (insignificant), suggesting that increased temperatures may allow hurricanes to maintain their strength as they pass over the Florida peninsula. The modifiable areal unit problem is assessed using multiple grid sizes. Moran's I and the local statistic G are calculated to examine spatial autocorrelation in the parameters. This research opens up future questions regarding rapid intensification and decay close to the coast and the relationship to changing SSTs.

  3. Short-term impacts of Hurricanes Irma and Maria on tropical stream chemistry as measured by in-situ sensors

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDowell, W. H.; Potter, J.; López-Lloreda, C.

    2017-12-01

    High intensity hurricanes have been shown to alter topical forest productivity and stream chemistry for years to decades in the montane rain forest of Puerto Rico, but much less is known about the immediate ecosystem response to these extreme events. Here we report the short-term impacts of Hurricanes Irma and Maria on the chemistry of Quebrada Sonadora immediately before and after the storms. We place the results from our 15-minute sensor record in the context of long-term weekly sampling that spans 34 years and includes two earlier major hurricanes (Hugo and Geoges). As expected, turbidity during Maria was the highest in our sensor record (> 1000 NTU). Contrary to our expectations, we found that solute-flow behavior changed with the advent of the storms. Specific conductance showed a dilution response to flow before the storms, but then changed to an enrichment response during and after Maria. This switch in system behavior is likely due to the deposition of marine aerosols during the hurricane. Nitrate concentrations showed very little response to discharge prior to the recent hurricanes, but large increase in concentration occurred at high flow both during and after the hurricanes. Baseflow nitrate concentrations decreased immediately after Irma to below the long-term background concentrations, which we attribute to the immobilization of N on organic debris choking the stream channel. Within three weeks of Hurricane Maria, baseflow nitrate concentrations began to rise. This is likely due to mineralization of N from decomposing canopy vegetation on the forest floor, and reduced N uptake by hurricane-damaged vegetation. The high frequency sensors are providing new insights into the response of this ecosystem in the days and weeks following two major disturbance events. The flipping of nitrate response to storms, from source limited to transport limited, suggests that these two severe hurricanes have fundamentally altered the nitrogen cycle at the site in ways

  4. "Just-in-Time" Personal Preparedness: Downloads and Usage Patterns of the American Red Cross Hurricane Application During Hurricane Sandy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirsch, Thomas D; Circh, Ryan; Bissell, Richard A; Goldfeder, Matthew

    2016-10-01

    Personal preparedness is a core activity but has been found to be frequently inadequate. Smart phone applications have many uses for the public, including preparedness. In 2012 the American Red Cross began releasing "disaster" apps for family preparedness and recovery. The Hurricane App was widely used during Hurricane Sandy in 2012. Patterns of download of the application were analyzed by using a download tracking tool by the American Red Cross and Google Analytics. Specific variables included date, time, and location of individual downloads; number of page visits and views; and average time spent on pages. As Hurricane Sandy approached in late October, daily downloads peaked at 152,258 on the day of landfall and by mid-November reached 697,585. Total page views began increasing on October 25 with over 4,000,000 page views during landfall compared to 3.7 million the first 3 weeks of October with a 43,980% increase in views of the "Right Before" page and a 76,275% increase in views of the "During" page. The Hurricane App offered a new type of "just-in-time" training that reached tens of thousands of families in areas affected by Hurricane Sandy. The app allowed these families to access real-time information before and after the storm to help them prepare and recover. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2016;page 1 of 6).

  5. Hurricane Imaging Radiometer Wind Speed and Rain Rate Retrievals during the 2010 GRIP Flight Experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahawneh, Saleem; Farrar, Spencer; Johnson, James; Jones, W. Linwood; Roberts, Jason; Biswas, Sayak; Cecil, Daniel

    2014-01-01

    Microwave remote sensing observations of hurricanes, from NOAA and USAF hurricane surveillance aircraft, provide vital data for hurricane research and operations, for forecasting the intensity and track of tropical storms. The current operational standard for hurricane wind speed and rain rate measurements is the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR), which is a nadir viewing passive microwave airborne remote sensor. The Hurricane Imaging Radiometer, HIRAD, will extend the nadir viewing SFMR capability to provide wide swath images of wind speed and rain rate, while flying on a high altitude aircraft. HIRAD was first flown in the Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes, GRIP, NASA hurricane field experiment in 2010. This paper reports on geophysical retrieval results and provides hurricane images from GRIP flights. An overview of the HIRAD instrument and the radiative transfer theory based, wind speed/rain rate retrieval algorithm is included. Results are presented for hurricane wind speed and rain rate for Earl and Karl, with comparison to collocated SFMR retrievals and WP3D Fuselage Radar images for validation purposes.

  6. History as a guide to the future for cities: coastal storms and Jamaica Bay in New York City as an example.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanderson, E. W.; Orton, P. M.; Giampieri, M.; Spagnoli, C.

    2015-12-01

    History can provide a guide to the future by revealing the physical climatic and geomorphological dynamics with which cities must contend. We used historical maps from the U.S. Coast Survey and the Stevens Estuarine and Coastal Ocean Model (sECOM) to simulate how and where coastal flooding from storm surge affected the Jamaica Bay region of southeastern New York City at different points in time. This area, which houses approximately 1.2 million people today and the John F. Kennedy International Airport, was heavily impacted by coastal flooding during Hurricane Sandy. Historical analysis showed that the Rockaway Peninsula was an active barrier island system up until the early twentieth century, growing approximately 70 meters per year to the west between 1844 - 1891. Older historical maps made by American and European cartographers from 1524 - 1844 suggest that Jamaica Bay may have been a much more open system, with few or no interior marsh islands, at the time of European discovery. From these studies, we constructed digital terrain models and land cover maps for two historical periods: ca. 1870s and ca. 1609, and today. Storm simulations of hurricanes over the historical and present-day landscapes showed how a smaller inlet, shallower channel depths, and larger floodplains all can reduce the height of flooding inside the bay, and suggested a series of leverage experiments that test the efficacy of present-day green infrastructure interventions to lessen peak flood heights while maintaining tidal flushing. By combining history, modelling, and policy-relevant scenarios, we believe we have developed a reshreshing and accessible toolkit for policymakers thinking about resilience measures in coastal cities like New York.

  7. Hurricane Recovery and Ecological Resilience: Measuring the Impacts of Wetland Alteration Post Hurricane Ike on the Upper TX Coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reja, Md Y.; Brody, Samuel D.; Highfield, Wesley E.; Newman, Galen D.

    2017-12-01

    Recovery after hurricane events encourages new development activities and allows reconstruction through the conversion of naturally occurring wetlands to other land uses. This research investigates the degree to which hurricane recovery activities in coastal communities are undermining the ability of these places to attenuate the impacts of future storm events. Specifically, it explores how and to what extent wetlands are being affected by the CWA Section 404 permitting program in the context of post-Hurricane Ike 2008 recovery. Wetland alteration patterns are examined by selecting a control group (Aransas and Brazoria counties with no hurricane impact) vs. study group (Chambers and Galveston counties with hurricane impact) research design with a pretest-posttest measurement analyzing the variables such as permit types, pre-post Ike permits, land cover classes, and within-outside the 100-year floodplain. Results show that permitting activities in study group have increased within the 100-year floodplain and palustrine wetlands continue to be lost compare to the control group. Simultaneously, post-Ike individual and nationwide permits increased in the Hurricane Ike impacted area. A binomial logistic regression model indicated that permits within the study group, undeveloped land cover class, and individual and nationwide permit type have a substantial effect on post-Ike permits, suggesting that post-Ike permits have significant impact on wetland losses. These findings indicate that recovery after the hurricane is compromising ecological resiliency in coastal communities. The study outcome may be applied to policy decisions in managing wetlands during a long-term recovery process to maintain natural function for future flood mitigation.

  8. A Two-Step Method to Select Major Surge-Producing Extratropical Cyclones from a 10,000-Year Stochastic Catalog

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keshtpoor, M.; Carnacina, I.; Yablonsky, R. M.

    2016-12-01

    Extratropical cyclones (ETCs) are the primary driver of storm surge events along the UK and northwest mainland Europe coastlines. In an effort to evaluate the storm surge risk in coastal communities in this region, a stochastic catalog is developed by perturbing the historical storm seeds of European ETCs to account for 10,000 years of possible ETCs. Numerical simulation of the storm surge generated by the full 10,000-year stochastic catalog, however, is computationally expensive and may take several months to complete with available computational resources. A new statistical regression model is developed to select the major surge-generating events from the stochastic ETC catalog. This regression model is based on the maximum storm surge, obtained via numerical simulations using a calibrated version of the Delft3D-FM hydrodynamic model with a relatively coarse mesh, of 1750 historical ETC events that occurred over the past 38 years in Europe. These numerically-simulated surge values were regressed to the local sea level pressure and the U and V components of the wind field at the location of 196 tide gauge stations near the UK and northwest mainland Europe coastal areas. The regression model suggests that storm surge values in the area of interest are highly correlated to the U- and V-component of wind speed, as well as the sea level pressure. Based on these correlations, the regression model was then used to select surge-generating storms from the 10,000-year stochastic catalog. Results suggest that roughly 105,000 events out of 480,000 stochastic storms are surge-generating events and need to be considered for numerical simulation using a hydrodynamic model. The selected stochastic storms were then simulated in Delft3D-FM, and the final refinement of the storm population was performed based on return period analysis of the 1750 historical event simulations at each of the 196 tide gauges in preparation for Delft3D-FM fine mesh simulations.

  9. Constraining Big Hurricanes: Remotely sensing Galveston Islands' changing coastal landscape from days to millennia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dougherty, A. J.; Choi, J. H.; Heo, S.; Dosseto, A.

    2017-12-01

    Climate change models forecast increased storm intensity, which will drive coastal erosion as sea-level rise accelerates with global warming. Over the last five years the largest hurricanes ever recorded in the Pacific (Patricia) and the Atlantic (Irma) occurred as well as the devastation of Harvey. The preceding decade was marked with Super Storm Sandy, Katrina and Ike. A century prior, the deadliest natural disaster in North America occurred as a category 4 hurricane known as `The 1900 Storm' hit Galveston Island. This research aims to contextualize the impact of storms long before infrastructure and historical/scientific accounts documented erosion. Unlike the majority of barrier islands in the US, Galveston built seaward over the Holocene. As the beach prograded it preserved a history of storms and shoreline change over millennia to the present-day. These systems (called prograded barriers) were first studied over 50 years ago using topographic profiles, sediment cores and radiocarbon dating. This research revisits some of these benchmark study sites to augment existing data utilizing state-of-the-art Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR), Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR), and Optically Stimulated Luminescence (OSL) techniques. In 2016 GPR and OSL data were collected from Galveston Island, with the aim to combine GPR, OSL and LiDAR (GOaL) to extract a high-resolution geologic record spanning 6,000 years. The resulting millennia-scale coastal evolution can be used to contextualize the impact of historic hurricanes over the past century (`The 1900 Storm'), decade (Ike in 2008) and year (now with Harvey). Preliminary results reveal a recent change in shoreline behaviour, and data from Harvey are currently being accessed within the perspective of these initial findings. This dataset will be discussed with respect to the other two benchmark prograded barriers studied in North America: Nayarit Barrier (Mexico) that Hurricane Patricia passed directly over in 2013 and

  10. Microseisms from Hurricane "Hilda".

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Bremaecker, J C

    1965-06-25

    As hurricane "Hilda" crossed the Gulf of Mexico the dominant period of the microseisms shifted from about 8 to 5 seconds as the eye reached water about 150 to 200 meters deep. The conversion of wind energy to microseismic energy is most efficient in water depths from 20 to 200 meters. There is no evidence that two periods, one twice the other, are present.

  11. Frequent Disasters in Mexico: hurricanes Pauline and Manuel in Acapulco, Guerrero

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan Manuel Rodríguez Esteves

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Hurricanes and other tropical storms are natural phenomena that attract the interest of people all over the world, especially when they affect coastal communities. Each year, especially during the hurricane season, it is common to read or see in the different media damage caused by tropical storms in several countries, especially in Latin America and Asia. In Mexico total economic losses associated with natural phenomena has been increasing. During the year 2000 were allocated 230 million US dollars for the reconstruction of the infrastructure affected by hydrometeorological phenomena, while in 2013 damage amounted to $ 4,476 million, peaking during 2010 were recorded when 7,208 million dollars in losses. On the other hand, the total of damage caused by natural phenomena, 92 % were associated with hydrometeorological phenomena, which include hurricanes and other phenomena (SEGOB, 2014. The aim of this paper is to analyze the impacts caused by disasters associated with the influence of hurricanes from a comparative perspective between two phenomena in particular, hurricane Pauline in 1997 and Manuel storm in 2013 events hydrometeorological which affected the Mexican state of Guerrero, but especially to the port of Acapulco. one of the main conclusions of this study refers to that no matter only the intensity of the natural phenomenon to generate damage on society, but the total of damages also refers to the contexts of vulnerability generated by a society with the course of the years.

  12. Quantifying human mobility perturbation and resilience in Hurricane Sandy.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qi Wang

    Full Text Available Human mobility is influenced by environmental change and natural disasters. Researchers have used trip distance distribution, radius of gyration of movements, and individuals' visited locations to understand and capture human mobility patterns and trajectories. However, our knowledge of human movements during natural disasters is limited owing to both a lack of empirical data and the low precision of available data. Here, we studied human mobility using high-resolution movement data from individuals in New York City during and for several days after Hurricane Sandy in 2012. We found the human movements followed truncated power-law distributions during and after Hurricane Sandy, although the β value was noticeably larger during the first 24 hours after the storm struck. Also, we examined two parameters: the center of mass and the radius of gyration of each individual's movements. We found that their values during perturbation states and steady states are highly correlated, suggesting human mobility data obtained in steady states can possibly predict the perturbation state. Our results demonstrate that human movement trajectories experienced significant perturbations during hurricanes, but also exhibited high resilience. We expect the study will stimulate future research on the perturbation and inherent resilience of human mobility under the influence of hurricanes. For example, mobility patterns in coastal urban areas could be examined as hurricanes approach, gain or dissipate in strength, and as the path of the storm changes. Understanding nuances of human mobility under the influence of such disasters will enable more effective evacuation, emergency response planning and development of strategies and policies to reduce fatality, injury, and economic loss.

  13. Estimating the human influence on Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wehner, M. F.; Patricola, C. M.; Risser, M. D.

    2017-12-01

    Attribution of the human-induced climate change influence on the physical characteristics of individual extreme weather events has become an advanced science over the past decade. However, it is only recently that such quantification of anthropogenic influences on event magnitudes and probability of occurrence could be applied to very extreme storms such as hurricanes. We present results from two different classes of attribution studies for the impactful Atlantic hurricanes of 2017. The first is an analysis of the record rainfall amounts during Hurricane Harvey in the Houston, Texas area. We analyzed observed precipitation from the Global Historical Climatology Network with a covariate-based extreme value statistical analysis, accounting for both the external influence of global warming and the internal influence of ENSO. We found that human-induced climate change likely increased Hurricane Harvey's total rainfall by at least 19%, and likely increased the chances of the observed rainfall by a factor of at least 3.5. This suggests that changes exceeded Clausius-Clapeyron scaling, motivating attribution studies using dynamical climate models. The second analysis consists of two sets of hindcast simulations of Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) at 4.5 km resolution. The first uses realistic boundary and initial conditions and present-day greenhouse gas forcings while the second uses perturbed conditions and pre-industrial greenhouse has forcings to simulate counterfactual storms without anthropogenic influences. These simulations quantify the fraction of Harvey's precipitation attributable to human activities and test the super Clausius-Clapeyron scaling suggested by the observational analysis. We will further quantify the