WorldWideScience

Sample records for human-induced climate variations

  1. Promise and Capability of NASA's Earth Observing System to Monitor Human-Induced Climate Variations

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, M. D.

    2003-01-01

    The Earth Observing System (EOS) is a space-based observing system comprised of a series of satellite sensors by which scientists can monitor the Earth, a Data and Information System (EOSDIS) enabling researchers worldwide to access the satellite data, and an interdisciplinary science research program to interpret the satellite data. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), developed as part of the Earth Observing System (EOS) and launched on Terra in December 1999 and Aqua in May 2002, is designed to meet the scientific needs for satellite remote sensing of clouds, aerosols, water vapor, and land and ocean surface properties. This sensor and multi-platform observing system is especially well suited to observing detailed interdisciplinary components of the Earth s surface and atmosphere in and around urban environments, including aerosol optical properties, cloud optical and microphysical properties of both liquid water and ice clouds, land surface reflectance, fire occurrence, and many other properties that influence the urban environment and are influenced by them. In this presentation I will summarize the current capabilities of MODIS and other EOS sensors currently in orbit to study human-induced climate variations.

  2. Human-Induced Climate Variations Linked to Urbanization: From Observations to Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shepherd, J. Marshall; Jin, Menglin

    2004-01-01

    The goal of this session is to bring together scientists from interdisciplinary backgrounds to discuss the data, scientific approaches and recent results focusing on the impact of urbanization on the climate. The discussion will highlight current observational and modeling capabilities being employed for investigating the urban environment and its linkage to the change in the Earth's climate system. The goal of the session is to identify our current stand and the future direction on the topic. Urbanization is one of the extreme cases of land use change. Most of population of the world has moved to urban areas. By 1995, more than 70% of population of North America and Europe were living in cities. By 2025, the United Nations estimates that 60% of the worlds population will live in cities. Although currently only 1.2% of the land is urban, better understanding of how the atmosphere-ocean-land-biosphere components interact as a coupled system and the influence of human activities on this system is critical. Our understanding of urbanization effect is incomplete, partly because human activities induce new changes on climate in addition to the original natural variations, and partly because previously few data available for study urban effect globally. Urban construction changes surface roughness, albedo, heat capacity and vegetation coverage. Traffic and industry increase atmospheric aerosol. It is suggested that urbanization may modify rainfall processes through aerosol-cloud interactions or dynamic feedbacks. Because urbanization effect on climate is determined by many factors including land cover, the city's microscale features, population density, and human lifestyle patterns, it is necessary to study urban areas over globe.

  3. Is climate change human induced?

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    user

    mountainous regions is disturbing regional eco-balance, but increasing vehicular pollution in climate- sensitive areas seems to have ... snow and ice. There are more than 800 glaciers in the. Ganga basin. The Gangotri is the big one. It used to cover more than 250 square kilometers, but now it's breaking up in many places.

  4. The Economics and Ethics of Human Induced Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Spash, Clive L.; Gattringer, Clemens

    2016-01-01

    Human induced climate change poses a series of ethical challenges to the current political economy, although it has often be regarded by economists as only an ethical issue for those concerned about future generations. The central debate in economics has then concerned the rate at which future costs and benefits should be discounted. Indeed the full range of ethical aspects of climate change are rarely even discussed. Despite recent high profile and lengthy academic papers on t...

  5. Can a Human-Induced Climate Disaster be Avoided?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watson, R.

    2012-12-01

    Emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) are one of the greatest threats to our future prosperity. World emissions are currently around 50 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide-equivalent per annum and are growing rapidly. Atmospheric concentrations of GHG emissions in the atmosphere have increased, to over 400ppm of CO2e today, even after taking the offsetting radiative effects of aerosols into account, and are increasing at a rate of around 2.5ppm per year. The world's current lack of "adequate" commitments to reduce emissions are consistent with at least a 3oC rise (50-50 chance) in temperature: a temperature not seen on the planet for around 3 million years, with serious risks of 5oC rise: a temperature not seen on the planet for around 30 million years. So what are the implications of a 3-5oC rise in temperature, with associated changes in, rising sea levels, retreating mountain glaciers, melting of the Greenland ice cap, shrinking Arctic Sea ice, especially in summer, increasing frequency of extreme weather events, such as heat waves, floods, and droughts, and intensification of cyclonic events, such as hurricanes in the Atlantic. Even a 2oC increase in mean surface temperatures will adversely affect freshwater, food and fiber, natural ecosystems, coastal systems and low-lying areas, human health and social systems, especially in developing countries. The impacts of 3-5oC will be extensive, predominantly negative, undermine development and poverty alleviation goals and cut across most sectors. To address human-induced climate change requires a transition to a low carbon economy, which will require rapid technological evolution in the efficiency of energy use, environmentally sound low-carbon renewable energy sources and carbon capture and storage. The longer we wait to transition to a low carbon economy the more we are locked into a high carbon energy system with consequent environmental damage to ecological and socio-economic systems. Unfortunately the political will

  6. Observing Human-induced Linkages between Urbanization and Earth's Climate System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shepherd, J. Marshall; Jin, Menglin

    2004-01-01

    Urbanization is one of the extreme cases of land use change. Most of world s population has moved to urban areas. Although currently only 1.2% of the land is considered urban, the spatial coverage and density of cities are expected to rapidly increase in the near future. It is estimated that by the year 2025, 60% of the world s population will live in cities. Human activity in urban environments also alters atmospheric composition; impacts components of the water cycle; and modifies the carbon cycle and ecosystems. However, our understanding of urbanization on the total Earth-climate system is incomplete. Better understanding of how the Earth s atmosphere-ocean-land-biosphere components interact as a coupled system and the influence of the urban environment on this climate system is critical. The goal of the 2003 AGU Union session Human-induced climate variations on urban areas: From observations to modeling was to bring together scientists from interdisciplinary backgrounds to discuss the data, scientific approaches and recent results on observing and modeling components of the urban environment with the intent of sampling our current stand and discussing future direction on this topic. Herein, a summary and discussion of the observations component of the session are presented.

  7. Human-induced climate change: an interdisciplinary assessment

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Schlesinger, M; Kheshgi, H; Smith, J; de la Chesnaye, F.C; Reilly, J. M; Wilson, T; Kolstad, C

    2007-01-01

    ... of climate sensitivity and change. The next part of the book surveys estimates of the impacts of climate change for different sectors and regions, describes recent studies for individual sectors, and examines how this research might be used in the policy process. The third part examines current topics related to mitigation of greenhouse gase...

  8. Is climate change human induced? | Misra | African Journal of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    African Journal of Environmental Science and Technology. Journal Home · ABOUT THIS JOURNAL · Advanced Search · Current Issue · Archives · Journal Home > Vol 9, No 2 (2015) >. Log in or Register to get access to full text downloads. Username, Password, Remember me, or Register. Is climate change human ...

  9. Effective Teacher Practice on the Plausibility of Human-Induced Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niepold, F.; Sinatra, G. M.; Lombardi, D.

    2013-12-01

    Climate change education programs in the United States seek to promote a deeper understanding of the science of climate change, behavior change and stewardship, and support informed decision making by individuals, organizations, and institutions--all of which are summarized under the term 'climate literacy.' The ultimate goal of climate literacy is to enable actors to address climate change, both in terms of stabilizing and reducing emissions of greenhouse gases, but also an increased capacity to prepare for the consequences and opportunities of climate change. However, the long-term nature of climate change and the required societal response involve the changing students' ideas about controversial scientific issues which presents unique challenges for educators (Lombardi & Sinatra, 2010; Sinatra & Mason, 2008). This session will explore how the United States educational efforts focus on three distinct, but related, areas: the science of climate change, the human-climate interaction, and using climate education to promote informed decision making. Each of these approaches are represented in the Atlas of Science Literacy (American Association for the Advancement of Science, 2007) and in the conceptual framework for science education developed at the National Research Council (NRC) in 2012. Instruction to develop these fundamental thinking skills (e.g., critical evaluation and plausibility reappraisal) has been called for by the Next Generation Science Standards (NGSS) (Achieve, 2013), an innovative and research based way to address climate change education within the decentralized U.S. education system. However, the promise of the NGSS is that students will have more time to build mastery on the subjects, but the form of that instructional practice has been show to be critical. Research has show that effective instructional activities that promote evaluation of evidence improve students' understanding and acceptance toward the scientifically accepted model of human-induced

  10. Sea level and climate variations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oerlemans, J.

    1985-01-01

    Review paper, ESA Symposium on Application of Satellite Data to Climate Modelling. Alpbach (Austria) Sea level is an essential component of the climate system, on which many human activities in the coastal zone depend. Climate variations leading to changes in relative sea level are

  11. Gamma Spectrometry for Chronology of Recent Sediments. Tracing Human Induced Climate Change in NW Africa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pittauerova, D.; Fischer, H. W. [Institute of Environmental Physics, University of Bremen, Bremen (Germany); Mulitza, S. [MARUM - Center for Marine Environmental Sciences, University of Bremen, (Germany)

    2013-07-15

    Gamma spectroscopy was used for the determination of radionuclides in sediment cores from the continental shelf off northwest africa to provide age control of the sediment record used for a study of aridification of the Sahel zone. {sup 210}Pb, {sup 226}Ra and {sup 137}Cs were measured in the upper part of a gravity core and the associated multicorer and used for aligning these cores. This provided information about the amount of sediment loss due to the sampling procedure in the upper part of the gravity core. The age model based on the matched profiles extended to 140 years B.P. and the rest of the gravity core was dated by {sup 14}C. The {sup 210}Pb age allowed the estimation of the local radiocarbon reservoir age. Application of {sup 210}Pb and {sup 137}Cs chronology helps to significantly extend paleoclimatic proxy data into the Anthropocene, thereby allowing the comparison of human induced climate change with natural climate variability. (author)

  12. Synchrony in hunting bags: reaction on climatic and human induced changes?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagen, Robert; Heurich, Marco; Kröschel, Max; Herdtfelder, Micha

    2014-01-15

    Human induced land use changes negatively impact the viability of many wildlife species through habitat modifications and mortality, while some species seem to benefit from it. Roe deer (Capreolus capreolus), a wide spread ungulate increased both its abundance and range throughout Europe. This pattern is also reflected in the increasing hunting bags over the last 40 years. Such a development raises questions about the relationship between human hunting and population dynamics and, in particular, about the potential of human hunting to control related populations. We analysed and reconstructed annual hunting bags of roe deer for three federal states of northern Germany, Brandenburg, Lower Saxony and Mecklenburg West Pomerania for the years 1972 to 2011. Since 1992 the hunting bags from these three states are significantly higher than those reported for the years 1972-1991. Our reconstruction takes into consideration effects of climate variability, expressed by inter-annual changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation and impacts from rapeseed and wheat cultivation. We found that severe winters, which are indicated by negative values of the North Atlantic Oscillation during the months December-March, directly, or with a time lag of two years affect the number of deer shot. In contrast, an increase in the area used for rapeseed cultivation coincides with higher numbers of roe deer shot, with respect to the overall mean value. Consequently, we recommend that wildlife management addresses changes in large scale processes including land use pattern and climate variability. © 2013.

  13. Variation of the Climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jaramillo T, Jose Hernan

    2001-01-01

    Because the movement of the solar system is periodic, it might think that the climate is periodic also. However we have not the whole information in order to establish if it is periodic and which would be that period. The systematic observation of the climate only began in 1850. For this reason the climate prediction is not very believable. In the probably near future, we will be able to establish the weather with some reasonable inaccuracy. The present work studies the seasonal factors of the climate and it how interacts in its. These factors are: the sun, the atmosphere, the oceans, the water cycle, the clouds, ice sheets and snow and the earth surface. This work we will give an idea why the climate changes and the inaccuracy in the weather prediction

  14. Application of Method of Variation to Analyze and Predict Human Induced Modifications of Water Resource Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dessu, S. B.; Melesse, A. M.; Mahadev, B.; McClain, M.

    2010-12-01

    marginal benefit is maximized. Therefore, the variation model can help to predict the possible human induced modification of natural water system in order to gain the maximum productivity and benefit.

  15. Differentiating climate- and human-induced drivers of grassland degradation in the Liao River Basin, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Chunyang; Tian, Jie; Gao, Bin; Zhao, Yuanyuan

    2015-01-01

    Quantitatively distinguishing grassland degradation due to climatic variations from that due to human activities is of great significance to effectively governing degraded grassland and realizing sustainable utilization. The objective of this study was to differentiate these two types of drivers in the Liao River Basin during 1999-2009 using the residual trend (RESTREND) method and to evaluate the applicability of the method in semiarid and semihumid regions. The relationship between the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and each climatic factor was first determined. Then, the primary driver of grassland degradation was identified by calculating the change trend of the normalized residuals between the observed and the predicted NDVI assuming that climate change was the only driver. We found that the RESTREND method can be used to quantitatively and effectively differentiate climate and human drivers of grassland degradation. We also found that the grassland degradation in the Liao River Basin was driven by both natural processes and human activities. The driving factors of grassland degradation varied greatly across the study area, which included regions having different precipitation and altitude. The degradation in the Horqin Sandy Land, with lower altitude, was driven mainly by human activities, whereas that in the Kungl Prairie, with higher altitude and lower precipitation, was caused primarily by climate change. Therefore, the drivers of degradation and local conditions should be considered in an appropriate strategy for grassland management to promote the sustainability of grasslands in the Liao River Basin.

  16. Solar cycles and climate variations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chistyakov, V.F.

    1990-01-01

    Climate oscillations with 100-, 200- and 300-year periods are positively correlated with solar activity oscillations: the higher is solar activity the warmer is climate. According to geological data (varved clays) it is determined, that length of cycles has decreased from 23.4 up to 11 years during latter 2.5 billion years. 12-year cycles occurred during the great glaciation periods, while 10-year cycles occurred during interglaciation periods. It is suggested, that these oscillations are related with variations of the solar activity and luminescence

  17. Is Forest Restoration in the Southwest China Karst Promoted Mainly by Climate Change or Human-Induced Factors?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, H.

    2017-12-01

    The Southwest China Karst, the largest continuous karst zone in the world, has suffered serious rock desertification due to the large population pressure in the area. Recent trend analyses have indicated general greening trends in this region. The region has experienced mild climate change, and yet significant land use changes, such as afforestation and reforestation. In addition, out-migration has occurred. Whether climate change or human-induced factors, i.e., ecological afforestation projects and out-migration have primarily promoted forest restoration in this region was investigated in this study, using Guizhou Province as the study area. Based on Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data, we found general greening trends of the forest from 2000 to 2010. About 89% of the forests have experienced an increase in the annual NDVI, and among which, about 41% is statistically significant. For the summer season, more than 65% of the forests have increases in summer NDVI, and about 16% of the increases are significant. The strongest greening trends mainly occurred in the karst areas. Meanwhile, annual average and summer average temperature in this region have increased and the precipitation in most of the region has decreased, although most of these changes were not statistically significant (p > 0.1). A site-based regression analysis using 19 climate stations with minimum land use changes showed that a warming climate coupled with a decrease in precipitation explained some of the changes in the forest NDVI, but the results were not conclusive. The major changes were attributed to human-induced factors, especially in the karst areas. The implications of an ecological afforestation project and out-migration for forest restoration were also discussed, and the need for further investigations at the household level to better understand the out-migration-environment relationship was identified.

  18. Is Forest Restoration in the Southwest China Karst Promoted Mainly by Climate Change or Human-Induced Factors?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hongyan Cai

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available The Southwest China Karst, the largest continuous karst zone in the world, has suffered serious rock desertification due to the large population pressure in the area. Recent trend analyses have indicated general greening trends in this region. The region has experienced mild climate change, and yet significant land use changes, such as afforestation and reforestation. In addition, out-migration has occurred. Whether climate change or human-induced factors, i.e., ecological afforestation projects and out-migration have primarily promoted forest restoration in this region was investigated in this study, using Guizhou Province as the study area. Based on Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI data, we found general greening trends of the forest from 2000 to 2010. About 89% of the forests have experienced an increase in the annual NDVI, and among which, about 41% is statistically significant. For the summer season, more than 65% of the forests have increases in summer NDVI, and about 16% of the increases are significant. The strongest greening trends mainly occurred in the karst areas. Meanwhile, annual average and summer average temperature in this region have increased and the precipitation in most of the region has decreased, although most of these changes were not statistically significant (p > 0.1. A site-based regression analysis using 19 climate stations with minimum land use changes showed that a warming climate coupled with a decrease in precipitation explained some of the changes in the forest NDVI, but the results were not conclusive. The major changes were attributed to human-induced factors, especially in the karst areas. The implications of an ecological afforestation project and out-migration for forest restoration were also discussed, and the need for further investigations at the household level to better understand the out-migration–environment relationship was identified.

  19. Compounding Impacts of Human-Induced Water Stress and Climate Change on Water Availability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehran, Ali; AghaKouchak, Amir; Nakhjiri, Navid; Stewardson, Michael J.; Peel, Murray C.; Phillips, Thomas J.; Wada, Yoshihide; Ravalico, Jakin K.

    2017-01-01

    The terrestrial phase of the water cycle can be seriously impacted by water management and human water use behavior (e.g., reservoir operation, and irrigation withdrawals). Here we outline a method for assessing water availability in a changing climate, while explicitly considering anthropogenic water demand scenarios and water supply infrastructure designed to cope with climatic extremes. The framework brings a top-down and bottom-up approach to provide localized water assessment based on local water supply infrastructure and projected water demands. When our framework is applied to southeastern Australia we find that, for some combinations of climatic change and water demand, the region could experience water stress similar or worse than the epic Millennium Drought. We show considering only the influence of future climate on water supply, and neglecting future changes in water demand and water storage augmentation might lead to opposing perspectives on future water availability. While human water use can significantly exacerbate climate change impacts on water availability, if managed well, it allows societies to react and adapt to a changing climate. The methodology we present offers a unique avenue for linking climatic and hydrologic processes to water resource supply and demand management and other human interactions.

  20. Human-induced climate change: the impact of land-use change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gries, Thomas; Redlin, Margarete; Ugarte, Juliette Espinosa

    2018-02-01

    For hundreds of years, human activity has modified the planet's surface through land-use practices. Policies and decisions on how land is managed and land-use changes due to replacement of forests by agricultural cropping and grazing lands affect greenhouse gas emissions. Agricultural management and agroforestry and the resulting changes to the land surface alter the global carbon cycle as well as the Earth's surface albedo, both of which in turn change the Earth's radiation balance. This makes land-use change the second anthropogenic source of climate change after fossil fuel burning. However, the scientific research community has so far not been able to identify the direction and magnitude of the global impact of land-use change. This paper examines the effects of net carbon flux from land-use change on temperature by applying Granger causality and error correction models. The results reveal a significant positive long-run equilibrium relationship between land-use change and the temperature series as well as an opposing short-term effect such that land-use change tends to lead to global warming; however, a rise in temperature causes a decline in land-use change.

  1. Multi-decadal responses of a cod (Gadus morhua) population to human-induced trophic changes, fishing, and climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eero, Margit; MacKenzie, Brian; Köster, Fritz

    2011-01-01

    to changes in fish populations can be analyzed with empirical data. In this study we investigate how climate variability and multiple human impacts (fishing, marine mammal hunting, eutrophication) have affected multi-decadal scale dynamics of cod in the Baltic Sea during the 20th century.We document...... significant climate-driven variations in cod recruitment production at multi-annual timescales, which had major impacts on population dynamics and the yields to commercial fisheries. We also quantify the roles of marine mammal predation, eutrophication, and exploitation on the development of the cod...

  2. Crop responses to climatic variation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Porter, John R.; Semenov, Mikhail A.

    2005-01-01

    The yield and quality of food crops is central to the well being of humans and is directly affected by climate and weather. Initial studies of climate change on crops focussed on effects of increased carbon dioxide (CO2) level and/or global mean temperature and/or rainfall and nutrition on crop...... production. However, crops can respond nonlinearly to changes in their growing conditions, exhibit threshold responses and are subject to combinations of stress factors that affect their growth, development and yield. Thus, climate variability and changes in the frequency of extreme events are important...... for yield, its stability and quality. In this context, threshold temperatures for crop processes are found not to differ greatly for different crops and are important to define for the major food crops, to assist climate modellers predict the occurrence of crop critical temperatures and their temporal...

  3. Periodic weather and climate variations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ivanov, Vladimir V

    2002-01-01

    Variations in meteorological parameters are largely due to periodic processes and can be forecast for several years. Many such processes are related to astronomical factors such as the gravitational influences of the Moon and the Sun, and the modulation of solar irradiance by lunar and planetary motion. The Moon, Jupiter, and Venus have the strongest effect. These influences produce lines in the spectra of meteorological variations, which are combinations of the harmonics of the frequencies of revolution of the planets, the Earth, and the Moon around the Sun with the harmonics of the lunar revolution around the Earth. Due to frequency differences between the orbital and radial motions, fine spectral features of three types appear: line splitting, line-profile complications due to radial oscillations, and additional lines due to the combination of radial-oscillation frequencies with perturbation harmonics. (reviews of topical problems)

  4. Prediction of interannual climate variations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shukla, J.

    1993-01-01

    It has been known for some time that the behavior of the short-term fluctuations of the earth's atmosphere resembles that of a chaotic non-linear dynamical system, and that the day-to-day weather cannot be predicted beyond a few weeks. However, it has also been found that the interactions of the atmosphere with the underlying oceans and the land surfaces can produce fluctuations whose time scales are much longer than the limits of deterministic prediction of weather. It is, therefore, natural to ask whether it is possible that the seasonal and longer time averages of climate fluctuations can be predicted with sufficient skill to be beneficial for social and economic applications, even though the details of day-to-day weather cannot be predicted beyond a few weeks. The main objective of the workshop was to address this question by assessing the current state of knowledge on predictability of seasonal and interannual climate variability and to investigate various possibilities for its prediction. (orig./KW)

  5. Characterization of climate- and human-induced slope, soil and grassland dynamics in Bavarian landscapes under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waltl, Peter; Schwindt, Daniel; Völkel, Jörg

    2016-04-01

    Since the Neolithic Revolution the intensification of agriculture has been causing increased erosion in Bavarian landscapes. The correlated sediments often induce the formation of new colluvial and alluvial soils (WRB: Regic Anthrosol and Fluvisol i.a.). The soils themselves are able to absorb, bind, and store considerable amounts of C- and N-compounds. Therefore, they are important reactors regarding climate-relevant greenhouse-gas balances in the atmosphere. Learning about the exact spatial extent and thickness of these soils in representative landscapes, but also about their geneses and processes is essential. It allows for a detailed quantification and understanding of the current and potential properties and characteristics of these soils in their role of greenhouse-gas reactors. Two research locations were elected as representative Bavarian landscapes composed of different lithology and pedo-chemical environments (limestone versus crystalline setting): Rottenbuch is situated at the Ammer River in the Upper Bavarian pre-alpine forelands (Lkr. Weilheim-Schongau). The Otterbach Creek lies at the southwestern foothills of the Bavarian Forest at the Donaurandbruch tectonic line next to Donaustauf (Lkr. Regensburg). Detailed information on the soil horizons and layers within these research areas are accumulated by sounding or burrowing soil profiles and subsequently analyzing the soil samples in the lab. Geophysical methods, such as electrical resistivity tomography (ERT), seismic refraction tomography (SRT), and ground penetrating radar (GPR), allow for the extension of this point-source information into three dimensions. By repeatedly and regularly applying these methods, also temporal changes such as soil hydrology or freeze and thaw cycles can be monitored and their influence on fluxes and exchanges can be taken into account.

  6. Natural climate variations in a geological perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mikkelsen, N.; Kuijpers, A.

    2001-01-01

    The climate is constantly changing, and it has been changing throughout the geological history of the Earth. These natural changes have shown a variability with frequencies from millions of years to just a few hundreds or tens of years. Some of the variations have been rather dramatic - shifting from globally uniform and hot climates to regular ice ages - whereas other changes have been less spectacular. All natural climate variations have an impact on the physical and biological systems of the Earth - and on mankind and culture during the last hundred thousand years. In this chapter we shall discuss the natural climate changes that has taken place during the geological history of the Earth and comment on the impact of these changes on the cultural evolution of mankind with special emphasis on Greenland. (LN)

  7. Climate variations and the enhanced greenhouse effect

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Karlen, W. [Stockholm Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Physical Geography

    1998-06-01

    Changes in the size of glaciers, in the altitude of the alpine tree-limit, and variation in the width of tree-rings during the Holocene clearly indicate that the average Scandinavian summer temperature has fluctuated. During warm periods it has been about 2 deg C warmer than at present; during cold periods it has been almost as cold as it was during the coldest decades of the previous centuries. Superimposed on these long-term variations, which have lasted from 100 to 200 years, are short fluctuations in temperature. The Scandinavian chronology, which is based on glacier and alpine tree-limit fluctuations as well as on dendrochronology, is well correlated with the changes in climate, which studies of ice cores from central Greenland have revealed. It is therefore believed that the Scandinavian climate chronology depicts conditions typical of a large area. The Scandinavian record is compared with data concerning solar irradiation variations estimated as {sup 14}C anomalies obtained from tree-rings. A correlation between major changes in climate and variations in solar irradiation points to a solar forcing of the climate. This means that there is no evidence of a human influence on climate so far Special issue. Research for mountain area development: Europe. 64 refs, 3 figs

  8. Model-based assessment of the role of human-induced climate change in the 2005 Caribbean coral bleaching event

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Donner, S.D. [Princeton Univ., NJ (United States). Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs; Knutson, T.R. [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Princeton, NJ (United States). Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab.; Oppenheimer, M. [Princeton Univ., NJ (United States). Dept. of Geosciences

    2007-03-27

    Episodes of mass coral bleaching around the world in recent decades have been attributed to periods of anomalously warm ocean temperatures. In 2005, the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly in the tropical North Atlantic that may have contributed to the strong hurricane season caused widespread coral bleaching in the Eastern Caribbean. Here, the authors use two global climate models to evaluate the contribution of natural climate variability and anthropogenic forcing to the thermal stress that caused the 2005 coral bleaching event. Historical temperature data and simulations for the 1870-2000 period show that the observed warming in the region is unlikely to be due to unforced climate variability alone. Simulation of background climate variability suggests that anthropogenic warming may have increased the probability of occurrence of significant thermal stress events for corals in this region by an order of magnitude. Under scenarios of future greenhouse gas emissions, mass coral bleaching in the Eastern Caribbean may become a biannual event in 20-30 years. However, if corals and their symbionts can adapt by 1-1.5{sup o}C, such mass bleaching events may not begin to recur at potentially harmful intervals until the latter half of the century. The delay could enable more time to alter the path of greenhouse gas emissions, although long-term 'committed warming' even after stabilization of atmospheric CO{sub 2} levels may still represent an additional long-term threat to corals.

  9. Climate-Driven or Human-Induced: Indicating Severe Water Scarcity in the Moulouya River Basin (Morocco

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vera Tekken

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Many agriculture-based economies are increasingly under stress from climate change and socio-economic pressures. The excessive exploitation of natural resources still represents the standard procedure to achieve socio-economic development. In the area of the Moulouya river basin, Morocco, natural water availability represents a key resource for all economic activities. Agriculture represents the most important sector, and frequently occurring water deficits are aggravated by climate change. On the basis of historical trends taken from CRU TS 2.1, this paper analyses the impact of climate change on the per capita water availability under inclusion of population trends. The Climatic Water Balance (CWB shows a significant decrease for the winter period, causing adverse effects for the main agricultural season. Further, moisture losses due to increasing evapotranspiration rates indicate problems for the annual water budget and groundwater recharge. The per capita blue water availability falls below a minimum threshold of 500 m3 per year, denoting a high regional vulnerability to increasing water scarcity assuming a no-response scenario. Regional development focusing on the water-intense sectors of agriculture and tourism appears to be at risk. Institutional capacities and policies need to address the problem, and the prompt implementation of innovative water production and efficiency measures is recommended.

  10. Detecting climate change oriented and human induced changes in stream temperature across the Southeastern U.S.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, X.; Voisin, N.; Cheng, Y.; Niemeyer, R. J.; Nijssen, B.; Yearsley, J. R.; Zhou, T.

    2017-12-01

    In many areas, climate change is expected to alter the flow regime and increase stream temperature, especially during summer low flow periods. During these low flow periods, water management increases flows in order to sustain human activities such as water for irrigation and hydroelectric power generation. Water extraction from rivers during warm season can increase stream temperature while reservoir regulation may cool downstream river temperatures by releasing cool water from deep layers. Thus, it is reasonable to hypothesize that water management changes the sensitivity of the stream temperature regime to climate change when compared to unmanaged resources. The time of emergence of change refers to the point in time when observations, or model simulations, show statistically significant changes from a given baseline period, i.e. above natural variability. Here we aim to address two questions by investigating the time of emergence of changes in stream temperature in the southeastern United States: what is the sensitivity of stream temperature under regulated flow conditions to climate change and what is the contribution of water management in increasing or decreasing stream temperature sensitivity to climate change. We simulate regulated flow by using runoff from the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macroscale hydrological model as input into a large scale river routing and reservoir model MOSART-WM. The River Basin Model (RBM), a distributed stream temperature model, includes a two-layer thermal stratification module to simulate stream temperature in regulated river systems. We evaluate the timing of emergence of changes in flow and stream temperature based on climate projections from two representative concentration pathways (RCPs; RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). We analyze the difference in emergence of change between natural and regulated streamflow. Insights will be provided toward applications for

  11. Observed changes of temperature extremes during 1960-2005 in China: natural or human-induced variations?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Qiang; Li, Jianfeng; David Chen, Yongqin; Chen, Xiaohong

    2011-12-01

    The purpose of this study was to statistically examine changes of surface air temperature in time and space and to analyze two factors potentially influencing air temperature changes in China, i.e., urbanization and net solar radiation. Trends within the temperature series were detected by using Mann-Kendall trend test technique. The scientific problem this study expected to address was that what could be the role of human activities in the changes of temperature extremes. Other influencing factors such as net solar radiation were also discussed. The results of this study indicated that: (1) increasing temperature was observed mainly in the northeast and northwest China; (2) different behaviors were identified in the changes of maximum and minimum temperature respectively. Maximum temperature seemed to be more influenced by urbanization, which could be due to increasing urban albedo, aerosol, and air pollutions in the urbanized areas. Minimum temperature was subject to influences of variations of net solar radiation; (3) not significant increasing and even decreasing temperature extremes in the Yangtze River basin and the regions south to the Yangtze River basin could be the consequences of higher relative humidity as a result of increasing precipitation; (4) the entire China was dominated by increasing minimum temperature. Thus, we can say that the warming process of China was reflected mainly by increasing minimum temperature. In addition, consistently increasing temperature was found in the upper reaches of the Yellow River basin, the Yangtze River basin, which have the potential to enhance the melting of permafrost in these areas. This may trigger new ecological problems and raise new challenges for the river basin scale water resource management.

  12. Perceived Effect of Climate Variation on Food Crop Production in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The study objective is to determine the perception of food crop farmers in Oyo state to climate variation as it affects their production, because the relationship between climate variation and food security is direct and Oyo State has enormous potentials to make Nigeria food secure. Multi-stage sampling technique was used to ...

  13. Climate variations and changes in extreme climate events in Russia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bulygina, O N; Razuvaev, V N; Korshunova, N N; Groisman, P Ya

    2007-01-01

    Daily temperature (mean, minimum and maximum) and atmospheric precipitation data from 857 stations are used to analyze variations in the space-time distribution of extreme temperatures and precipitation across Russia during the past six decades. The seasonal numbers of days (N) when daily air temperatures (diurnal temperature range, precipitation) were higher or lower than selected thresholds are used as indices of climatic extremes. Linear trends in N are calculated for each station for the time period of interest. The seasonal numbers of days (for each season) with maximum temperatures higher than the 95th percentile have increased over most of Russia, with minimum temperatures lower than the 5th percentile having decreased. A tendency for the decrease in the number of days with abnormally high diurnal temperature range is observed over most of Russia. In individual regions of Russia, however, a tendency for an increasing number of days with a large diurnal amplitude is found. The largest tendency for increasing number of days with heavy precipitation is observed in winter in Western Siberia and Yakutia

  14. Climatic variations, trends and drought frequency in Dejen District ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... and expected to increase in the future. This implies that the country specifically the study area whose mainstay depends on agriculture must cope with further warming, low, and erratic rainfall, and frequent climatic extremes. Keywords: Climate change, drought frequency, standardized precipitation index, rainfall variations ...

  15. Climate change, climatic variation and extreme biological responses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palmer, Georgina; Platts, Philip J; Brereton, Tom; Chapman, Jason W; Dytham, Calvin; Fox, Richard; Pearce-Higgins, James W; Roy, David B; Hill, Jane K; Thomas, Chris D

    2017-06-19

    Extreme climatic events could be major drivers of biodiversity change, but it is unclear whether extreme biological changes are (i) individualistic (species- or group-specific), (ii) commonly associated with unusual climatic events and/or (iii) important determinants of long-term population trends. Using population time series for 238 widespread species (207 Lepidoptera and 31 birds) in England since 1968, we found that population 'crashes' (outliers in terms of species' year-to-year population changes) were 46% more frequent than population 'explosions'. (i) Every year, at least three species experienced extreme changes in population size, and in 41 of the 44 years considered, some species experienced population crashes while others simultaneously experienced population explosions. This suggests that, even within the same broad taxonomic groups, species are exhibiting individualistic dynamics, most probably driven by their responses to different, short-term events associated with climatic variability. (ii) Six out of 44 years showed a significant excess of species experiencing extreme population changes (5 years for Lepidoptera, 1 for birds). These 'consensus years' were associated with climatically extreme years, consistent with a link between extreme population responses and climatic variability, although not all climatically extreme years generated excess numbers of extreme population responses. (iii) Links between extreme population changes and long-term population trends were absent in Lepidoptera and modest (but significant) in birds. We conclude that extreme biological responses are individualistic, in the sense that the extreme population changes of most species are taking place in different years, and that long-term trends of widespread species have not, to date, been dominated by these extreme changes.This article is part of the themed issue 'Behavioural, ecological and evolutionary responses to extreme climatic events'. © 2017 The Authors.

  16. Variation in skin biology to climate in Shanghai, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xiaoping; Gao, Yanrui; Zhang, Yiyi; Wang, Xuemin

    2017-09-01

    To explore the relationship between climate and skin condition, and to investigate the variation of skin biology to climatic change. In total, 2005 healthy Chinese volunteers living in Shanghai (aged 13-69 years) were recruited. Transepidermal water loss (TEWL) and SCH were tested on six sites (forehead, cheek, nasolabial, inner forearm, dorsal hand, and palm) by noninvasive devices between January 2005 and December 2012. The corresponding climate data were recorded by local Weather Bureau. TEWL was increased with atmospheric pressure and decreased with temperature, steam pressure, and relative humidity (p climate parameters together, we introduced these correlated factors into the multivariate linear regression model which demonstrated that temperature and steam pressure were main factors related to skin biological parameters. At different sites, the effect of climatic factors on skin biology was diverse. Skin biological parameters are associated with climatic factors. Different sites have different sensitivity to climate factors.

  17. Solar UV radiation variations and their stratospheric and climatic effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donnelly, R. F.; Heath, D. F.

    1985-01-01

    Nimbus-7 SBUV measurements of the short-term solar UV variations caused by solar rotation and active-region evolution have determined the amplitude and wavelength dependence for the active-region component of solar UV variations. Intermediate-term variations lasting several months are associated with rounds of major new active regions. The UV flux stays near the peak value during the current solar cycle variation for more than two years and peaks about two years later than the sunspot number. Nimbus-7 measurements have observed the concurrent stratospheric ozone variations caused by solar UV variations. There is now no doubt that solar UV variations are an important cause of short- and long-term stratospheric variations, but the strength of the coupling to the troposphere and to climate has not yet been proven.

  18. Climate variations and the greenhouse effect

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Michaels, P.J.; Knappenberger, P.C.; Gay, D.A.

    1994-01-01

    A number of recent publications have established the scientific paradigm that anthropogenerated sulfate aerosols are a sufficient explanation for the lack of observed greenhouse warming that has been predicted by transient general circulation climate models. This paper tests that hypothesis by examining the observed and modeled behavior of eigenvectors of the observed temperature field at three levels: hemispheric, polar, and over the regions where sulfate aerosol is most concentrated. Without sulfates in the transient model, there is no significant difference in explanatory power between the three test regions. In all three cases, the model creates much more spurious climatic change than it is able to capture. Most damaging to the sulfate hypothesis is that the GCM most accurately represents the behavior of the first eigenvector in summer in the high sulfate regions. This is where the difference between the model and observed temperatures is supposed to be greatest. Thus while the addition of sulfate aerosol to a transient general circulation model may improve its performance over some regions, this effect is insufficient to explain the overall lack of observed warming. This failure of the aerosol hypothesis is particularly evident in polar regions that are relatively aerosol-free, but also devoid of any significant warming

  19. Human-induced Arctic moistening.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Min, Seung-Ki; Zhang, Xuebin; Zwiers, Francis

    2008-04-25

    The Arctic and northern subpolar regions are critical for climate change. Ice-albedo feedback amplifies warming in the Arctic, and fluctuations of regional fresh water inflow to the Arctic Ocean modulate the deep ocean circulation and thus exert a strong global influence. By comparing observations to simulations from 22 coupled climate models, we find influence from anthropogenic greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols in the space-time pattern of precipitation change over high-latitude land areas north of 55 degrees N during the second half of the 20th century. The human-induced Arctic moistening is consistent with observed increases in Arctic river discharge and freshening of Arctic water masses. This result provides new evidence that human activity has contributed to Arctic hydrological change.

  20. Range position and climate sensitivity: The structure of among-population demographic responses to climatic variation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amburgey, Staci M.; Miller, David A. W.; Grant, Evan H. Campbell; Rittenhouse, Tracy A. G.; Benard, Michael F.; Richardson, Jonathan L.; Urban, Mark C.; Hughson, Ward; Brand, Adrianne B,; Davis, Christopher J.; Hardin, Carmen R.; Paton, Peter W. C.; Raithel, Christopher J.; Relyea, Rick A.; Scott, A. Floyd; Skelly, David K.; Skidds, Dennis E.; Smith, Charles K.; Werner, Earl E.

    2018-01-01

    Species’ distributions will respond to climate change based on the relationship between local demographic processes and climate and how this relationship varies based on range position. A rarely tested demographic prediction is that populations at the extremes of a species’ climate envelope (e.g., populations in areas with the highest mean annual temperature) will be most sensitive to local shifts in climate (i.e., warming). We tested this prediction using a dynamic species distribution model linking demographic rates to variation in temperature and precipitation for wood frogs (Lithobates sylvaticus) in North America. Using long-term monitoring data from 746 populations in 27 study areas, we determined how climatic variation affected population growth rates and how these relationships varied with respect to long-term climate. Some models supported the predicted pattern, with negative effects of extreme summer temperatures in hotter areas and positive effects on recruitment for summer water availability in drier areas. We also found evidence of interacting temperature and precipitation influencing population size, such as extreme heat having less of a negative effect in wetter areas. Other results were contrary to predictions, such as positive effects of summer water availability in wetter parts of the range and positive responses to winter warming especially in milder areas. In general, we found wood frogs were more sensitive to changes in temperature or temperature interacting with precipitation than to changes in precipitation alone. Our results suggest that sensitivity to changes in climate cannot be predicted simply by knowing locations within the species’ climate envelope. Many climate processes did not affect population growth rates in the predicted direction based on range position. Processes such as species-interactions, local adaptation, and interactions with the physical landscape likely affect the responses we observed. Our work highlights the

  1. Climate variations of Central Asia on orbital to millennial timescales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Hai; Spötl, Christoph; Breitenbach, Sebastian F M; Sinha, Ashish; Wassenburg, Jasper A; Jochum, Klaus Peter; Scholz, Denis; Li, Xianglei; Yi, Liang; Peng, Youbing; Lv, Yanbin; Zhang, Pingzhong; Votintseva, Antonina; Loginov, Vadim; Ning, Youfeng; Kathayat, Gayatri; Edwards, R Lawrence

    2016-11-11

    The extent to which climate variability in Central Asia is causally linked to large-scale changes in the Asian monsoon on varying timescales remains a longstanding question. Here we present precisely dated high-resolution speleothem oxygen-carbon isotope and trace element records of Central Asia's hydroclimate variability from Tonnel'naya cave, Uzbekistan, and Kesang cave, western China. On orbital timescales, the supra-regional climate variance, inferred from our oxygen isotope records, exhibits a precessional rhythm, punctuated by millennial-scale abrupt climate events, suggesting a close coupling with the Asian monsoon. However, the local hydroclimatic variability at both cave sites, inferred from carbon isotope and trace element records, shows climate variations that are distinctly different from their supra-regional modes. Particularly, hydroclimatic changes in both Tonnel'naya and Kesang areas during the Holocene lag behind the supra-regional climate variability by several thousand years. These observations may reconcile the apparent out-of-phase hydroclimatic variability, inferred from the Holocene lake proxy records, between Westerly Central Asia and Monsoon Asia.

  2. Simulating sub-Milankovitch climate variations associated with vegetation dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Tuenter

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate variability at sub-Milankovitch periods (between 2 and 15 kyr is studied in a set of transient simulations with a coupled atmosphere/ocean/vegetation model of intermediate complexity (CLIMBER-2. Focus is on the region influenced by the African and Asian summer monsoon. Pronounced variations at periods of about 10 kyr (Asia and Africa and about 5 kyr (Asia are found in the monsoonal runoff in response to the precessional forcing. In the model this is due to the following mechanism. For low summer insolation (precession maximum precipitation is low and desert expands at the expense of grass, while for high insolation (precession minimum precipitation is high and the tree fraction increases also reducing the grass fraction. This induces sub-Milankovitch variations in the grass fraction and associated variations in the water holding capacity of the soil. The runoff does not exhibit sub-Milankovitch variability when vegetation is kept fixed. High-latitude vegetation also exhibits sub-Milankovitch variability under both obliquity and precessional forcing. We thus hypothesize that sub-Milankovitch variability can occur due to the dynamic response of the vegetation. However, this mechanism should be further tested with more sophisticated climate/vegetation models.

  3. Biomarker records of Holocene climate variations in Asian interior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, M.; Liu, Z.; Liu, W.; Zhao, C.; Li, S.; He, Y.

    2012-12-01

    Understanding Holocene climate fluctuation may provide clues to projection of future climate change. Lake sediments in the arid central Asia (ACA), as an archive of past climate information, keep attracting considerable interest. We have retrieved several sediment cores from Lake Manas, an endorheic lake in Zunggar desert, Xinjiang Province, China. Biomarker proxies including alkenone Uk'37, %C37:4 and C37 concentration (C37 Conc), and physical proxies including density and magnetic susceptibility (MS) have been analyzed. We have found substantial climatic and environmental changes during the late Holocene. Density, MS and Uk'37 values are high during Medieval Warm Period (MWP) and C37 Conc is very low. During the Little Ice Age, density and MS decrease, Uk'37 values drop to near 0.1, C37 Conc is increased by 2 to 3 magnitude. Thus, warm and dry conditions dominated MWP while cold and wet conditions dominated LIA, a typical "Westerly" pattern which is opposite to the hydrological variation in Asian monsoonal regions. Biomarker records' correlation with solar irradiance (SI), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the 1000year ACA Moisture Index (ACAM), and the North Hemisphere Temperature (NHT) suggests SI as one of the forcing factor on temperature fluctuation and cold and wet LIA possibly resulting from westerly-jet shift, negative NAO oscillation and the lower evaporation induced by the decrease of temperature. Biomarker records for the whole Holocene will be also presented.

  4. Forcing of Climate Variations by Mev-gev Particles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tinsley, Brian A.

    1990-01-01

    Changes in ionization production in the lower stratosphere by a few percent during Forbush decreases have been shown to correlate well with changes in winter tropospheric dynamics by a similar relatively small amount. Changes in ionization production by tens of percent on the decadal time scale have been shown to be correlated with changes in winter storm frequencies by tens of percent in the western North Atlantic. Changes in total solar irradiance or solar UV do not have time variations to match the tropospheric variations on the day to day time scales discussed here. Forcing related to magnetic activity is not supported. Thus solar wind/MeV-GeV particle changes appear to be the only viable forcing function for these day to day variations. If solar wind/particle forcing of a few percent amplitude can produce short term weather responses, then observed changes by tens of percent on the decadal and centennial time scale could produce climate changes on these longer time scales. The changes in circulation involved would produce regional climate changes, as observed. At present the relations between stratospheric ionization, electric fields and chemistry and aerosol and cloud microphysics are as poorly known as the relations between the latter and storm feedback processes. However, the capability for investigating these relationships now exists and has recently been most successfully used for elucidating the stratospheric chemistry and cloud microphysics associated with the Antarctic ozone hole. The economic benefits of being able to predict winter severity on an interannual basis, and the extent to which climate change related to solar variability will add to or substract from the greenhouse effect, should be more than adequate to justify support for research in this area.

  5. Variations in pollen counts largely explained by climate and weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jung, Stephan; Damialis, Athanasios; Estrella, Nicole; Jochner, Susanne; Menzel, Annette

    2017-04-01

    The interaction between climate and vegetation is well studied within phenology. Climatic / weather conditions affect e.g. flowering date, length of vegetation period, start and end of the season and the plant growth. Besides phenological stages also pollen counts can be used to investigate the interaction between climate and vegetation. Pollen emission and distribution is directly influenced by temperature, wind speed, wind direction and humidity/precipitation. The objective of this project is to study daily/sub daily variations in pollen counts of woody and herbaceous plant species along an altitudinal gradient with different climatic conditions during the vegetation period. Measurements of pollen were carried out with three volumetric pollen traps installed at the altitudes 450 m a.s.l (Freising), 700 m a.s.l (Garmisch-Partenkirchen), and 2700 m a.s.l (Schneefernerhaus near Zugspitze) representing gradient from north of Munich towards the highest mountain of Germany. Airborne pollen concentrations were recorded during the years 2014-2015. The altitudinal range of these three stations accompanied by different microclimates ("space for time approach") can be used as proxy for climate change and to assess its impact on pollen counts and thus allergenic risk for human health. For example the pollen season is shortened and pollen amount is reduced at higher sites. For detailed investigations pollen of the species Plantago, Quercus, Poaceae, Cupressaceae, Cyperacea, Betula and Platanus were chosen, because those are found in appropriate quantities. In general, pollen captured in the pollen traps to a certain extent has its origin from the immediate surrounding. Thus, it mirrors local species distribution. But furthermore the distance of pollen transport is also based on (micro-) climatic conditions, land cover and topography. The pollen trap shortly below the summit of Zugspitze (Schneefernerhaus) has an alpine environment without vegetation nearby. Therefore, this

  6. Climate reconstruction by regression - 32 variations on a theme

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Buerger, Gerd; Fast, Irina; Cubasch, Ulrich [FU Berlin (Germany). Inst. fuer Meteorologie

    2006-02-15

    Regression-based methods fail to provide a sufficiently unique reconstruction of a given millennial history of Northern Hemisphere mean temperature. They instead offer a multitude of variants, depending on the specific data processing scheme. Using a simulated climate history with noise-disturbed pseudo-proxies, we systematically test a set of such configurations, each of which appears to be a priori reasonable, with existing applications elsewhere. This results in an entire spectrum between practically useless and almost perfect reconstructions. The reason lies in the fact that the training variations are not representative of the full millennium, and the regression equations have to be extrapolated. This creates an error that is proportional to both the model uncertainty and the proxy amplitudes. Estimation of that uncertainty is paramount for a useful millennial reconstruction, especially if it is of the parameter-loaded multiproxy type.

  7. Human-induced river runoff overlapping natural climate variability over the last 150 years: Palynological evidence (Bay of Brest, NW France)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lambert, Clément; Penaud, Aurélie; Vidal, Muriel; Klouch, Khadidja; Gregoire, Gwendoline; Ehrhold, Axel; Eynaud, Frédérique; Schmidt, Sabine; Ragueneau, Olivier; Siano, Raffaele

    2018-01-01

    For the first time a very high resolution palynological study (mean resolution of 1 to 5 years) was carried out over the last 150 years in a French estuarine environment (Bay of Brest; NW France), allowing direct comparison between the evolution of landscapes, surface water, and human practices on Bay of Brest watersheds, through continental (especially pollen grains) and marine (phytoplanktonic microalgae: cysts of dinoflagellates or dinocysts) microfossils. Thanks to the small size of the watersheds and the close proximity of the depositional environment to the mainland, the Bay of Brest represents an ideal case study for palynological investigations. Palynological data were then compared to published palaeo-genetic analyses conducted on the same core and to various available instrumental data, allowing us to better characterize past environmental variability since the second half of the 19th century in Western Brittany. We provide evidence of some clues of recent eutrophication and/or pollution that affected phytoplankton communities and which appears linked with increased runoff (higher precipitations, higher percentages of riparian forest pollen, decline of salt marsh-type indicators, and higher values of the XRF Ti/Ca signal), mainly explained by the evolution of agricultural practices since 1945 superimposed on the warming climate trend. We assume that the significant relay observed between dinocyst taxa: Lingulodinium machaerophorum and Spiniferites bentorii around 1965 then followed by Spiniferites membranaceus after 1985, attests to a strong and recent eutrophication of Bay of Brest surface waters induced by high river runoff combined with abnormally elevated air temperatures, especially obvious in the data from 1990. The structure of the dinocyst community has thus been deeply altered, accompanied by an unprecedented increase of Alexandrium minutum toxic form at the same period, as confirmed by the genetic quantification. Despite this recent major

  8. Climate contributions to vegetation variations in Central Asian drylands

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhou, Yu; Zhang, Li; Fensholt, Rasmus

    2015-01-01

    Central Asia comprises a large fraction of the world's drylands, known to be vulnerable to climate change. We analyzed the inter-annual trends and the impact of climate variability in the vegetation greenness for Central Asia from 1982 to 2011 using GIMMS3g normalized difference vegetation index...

  9. Variations in tropical convection as an amplifier of global climate change at the millennial scale

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ivanochkoa, T.S.; Ganeshram, R.S.; Brummer, G.J.A.; Ganssen, G.M.; Jung, S.J.A.; Moreton, S.G.; Kroon, D.

    2005-01-01

    The global expression of millennial-scale climatic change during the glacial period and the persistence of this signal in Holocene records point to atmospheric teleconnections as the mechanism propagating rapid climate variations. We suggest rearrangements in the tropical convection system globally

  10. Sensitivity of intermittent streams to climate variations in the USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eng, Kenny; Wolock, David M.; Dettinger, Mike

    2015-01-01

    There is a great deal of interest in the literature on streamflow changes caused by climate change because of the potential negative effects on aquatic biota and water supplies. Most previous studies have primarily focused on perennial streams, and there have been only a few studies examining the effect of climate variability on intermittent streams. Our objectives in this study were to (1) identify regions of similar zero-flow behavior, and (2) evaluate the sensitivity of intermittent streams to historical variability in climate in the United States. This study was carried out at 265 intermittent streams by evaluating: (1) correlations among time series of flow metrics (number of zero-flow events, the average of the central 50% and largest 10% of flows) with climate (magnitudes, durations and intensity), and (2) decadal changes in the seasonality and long-term trends of these flow metrics. Results identified five distinct seasonality patterns in the zero-flow events. In addition, strong associations between the low-flow metrics and historical changes in climate were found. The decadal analysis suggested no significant seasonal shifts or decade-to-decade trends in the low-flow metrics. The lack of trends or changes in seasonality is likely due to unchanged long-term patterns in precipitation over the time period examined.

  11. Estimating uncertainty and its temporal variation related to global climate models in quantifying climate change impacts on hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Mingxi; Chen, Jie; Zhuan, Meijia; Chen, Hua; Xu, Chong-Yu; Xiong, Lihua

    2018-01-01

    Uncertainty estimation of climate change impacts on hydrology has received much attention in the research community. The choice of a global climate model (GCM) is usually considered as the largest contributor to the uncertainty of climate change impacts. The temporal variation of GCM uncertainty needs to be investigated for making long-term decisions to deal with climate change. Accordingly, this study investigated the temporal variation (mainly long-term) of uncertainty related to the choice of a GCM in predicting climate change impacts on hydrology by using multi-GCMs over multiple continuous future periods. Specifically, twenty CMIP5 GCMs under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios were adapted to adequately represent this uncertainty envelope, fifty-one 30-year future periods moving from 2021 to 2100 with 1-year interval were produced to express the temporal variation. Future climatic and hydrological regimes over all future periods were compared to those in the reference period (1971-2000) using a set of metrics, including mean and extremes. The periodicity of climatic and hydrological changes and their uncertainty were analyzed using wavelet analysis, while the trend was analyzed using Mann-Kendall trend test and regression analysis. The results showed that both future climate change (precipitation and temperature) and hydrological response predicted by the twenty GCMs were highly uncertain, and the uncertainty increased significantly over time. For example, the change of mean annual precipitation increased from 1.4% in 2021-2050 to 6.5% in 2071-2100 for RCP4.5 in terms of the median value of multi-models, but the projected uncertainty reached 21.7% in 2021-2050 and 25.1% in 2071-2100 for RCP4.5. The uncertainty under a high emission scenario (RCP8.5) was much larger than that under a relatively low emission scenario (RCP4.5). Almost all climatic and hydrological regimes and their uncertainty did not show significant periodicity at the P = .05 significance

  12. Effect of Aspect on Climate Variation in Mountain Ranges of Shen-nongjia Massif, Central China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHANG Yi

    2018-01-01

    The aim of this study was to better understand the mechanisms of regional climate variation in mountain ranges with con-trasting aspects as mediated by changes in global climate. It may help predict trends of vegetation variations in native ecosystems in natural reserves. As measures of climate response, temperature and precipitation data from the north, east, and south-facing mountain ranges of Shennongjia Massif in the coldest and hottest months (January and July), different seasons (spring, summer, autumn, and win-ter) and each year were analyzed from a long-term dataset (1960 to 2003) to tested variations characteristics, temporal and spatial quan-titative relationships of climates. The results showed that the average seasonal temperatures and precipitation in the north, east, and south aspects of the mountain ranges changed at different rates. The average seasonal temperatures change rate ranges in the north, east, and south-facing mountain ranges were from –0.0210℃ /yr to 0.0143℃ /yr,–0.0166℃ /yr to 0.0311℃ /yr, and –0.0290℃ /yr to 0.0084℃ /yr, respectively,and seasonal precipitation variation magnitude were from –1.4940 mm/yr to 0.6217 mm/yr, –1.6833 mm/yr to 2.6182 mm/yr, and –0.8567 mm/yr to 1.4077 mm/yr, respectively. The climates variation trend among the three mountain ranges were different in magnitude and direction, showing a complicated change of the climates in mountain ranges and some inconsistency with general trends in global climate change. The climate variations were significantly different and positively correlated cross mountain ranges, revealing that aspects significantly affected on climate variations and these variations resulted from a larger air circulation sys-tem, which were sensitive to global climate change. We conclude that location and terrain of aspect are the main factors affecting dif-ferences in climate variation among the mountain ranges with contrasting aspects.

  13. Climate-related genetic variation in a threatened tree species, Pinus albicaulis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marcus V. Warwell; Ruth G. Shaw

    2017-01-01

    PREMISE OF THE STUDY: With ongoing climate change, understanding of intraspecific adaptive variation is critical for conservation and restoration of plant species. Such information is especially scarce for threatened and endangered tree species, such as Pinus albicaulis Engelm. Therefore, our principal aims were to assess adaptive variation and characterize its...

  14. Temperature variations as evidence of climate change in northern ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The paper seeks to investigate whether evolving temperature patterns over northern Nigeria agree with the projections made by global warming and climate change models. The data used are screen air temperature on a monthly time scale. These data were obtained from the database of the Nigerian Meteorological ...

  15. Rapid adjustment of bird community compositions to local climatic variations and its functional consequences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaüzère, Pierre; Jiguet, Frédéric; Devictor, Vincent

    2015-09-01

    The local spatial congruence between climate changes and community changes has rarely been studied over large areas. We proposed one of the first comprehensive frameworks tracking local changes in community composition related to climate changes. First, we investigated whether and how 12 years of changes in the local composition of bird communities were related to local climate variations. Then, we tested the consequences of this climate-induced adjustment of communities on Grinnellian (habitat-related) and Eltonian (function-related) homogenization. A standardized protocol monitoring spatial and temporal trends of birds over France from 2001 to 2012 was used. For each plot and each year, we used the spring temperature and the spring precipitations and calculated three indices reflecting the thermal niche, the habitat specialization, and the functional originality of the species within a community. We then used a moving-window approach to estimate the spatial distribution of the temporal trends in each of these indices and their congruency with local climatic variations. Temperature fluctuations and community dynamics were found to be highly variable in space, but their variations were finely congruent. More interestingly, the community adjustment to temperature variations was nonmonotonous. Instead, unexplained fluctuations in community composition were observed up to a certain threshold of climate change intensity, above which a change in community composition was observed. This shift corresponded to a significant decrease in the relative abundance of habitat specialists and functionally original species within communities, regardless of the direction of temperature change. The investigation of variations in climate and community responses appears to be a central step toward a better understanding of climate change effects on biodiversity. Our results suggest a fine-scale and short-term adjustment of community composition to temperature changes. Moreover

  16. Rapid plant invasion in distinct climates involves different sources of phenotypic variation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arnaud Monty

    Full Text Available When exotic species spread over novel environments, their phenotype will depend on a combination of different processes, including phenotypic plasticity (PP, local adaptation (LA, environmental maternal effects (EME and genetic drift (GD. Few attempts have been made to simultaneously address the importance of those processes in plant invasion. The present study uses the well-documented invasion history of Senecio inaequidens (Asteraceae in southern France, where it was introduced at a single wool-processing site. It gradually invaded the Mediterranean coast and the Pyrenean Mountains, which have noticeably different climates. We used seeds from Pyrenean and Mediterranean populations, as well as populations from the first introduction area, to explore the phenotypic variation related to climatic variation. A reciprocal sowing experiment was performed with gardens under Mediterranean and Pyrenean climates. We analyzed climatic phenotypic variation in germination, growth, reproduction, leaf physiology and survival. Genetic structure in the studied invasion area was characterized using AFLP. We found consistent genetic differentiation in growth traits but no home-site advantage, so weak support for LA to climate. In contrast, genetic differentiation showed a relationship with colonization history. PP in response to climate was observed for most traits, and it played an important role in leaf trait variation. EME mediated by seed mass influenced all but leaf traits in a Pyrenean climate. Heavier, earlier-germinating seeds produced larger individuals that produced more flower heads throughout the growing season. However, in the Mediterranean garden, seed mass only influenced the germination rate. The results show that phenotypic variation in response to climate depends on various ecological and evolutionary processes associated with geographical zone and life history traits. Seeing the relative importance of EME and GD, we argue that a "local

  17. The influence of ENSO, PDO and PNA on secular rainfall variations in Hawai‘i

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abby G. Frazier; Oliver Elison Timm; Thomas W. Giambelluca; Henry F. Diaz

    2017-01-01

    Over the last century, significant declines in rainfall across the state of Hawai‘i have been observed, and it is unknown whether these declines are due to natural variations in climate, or manifestations of human-induced climate change. Here, a statistical analysis of the observed rainfall variability was applied as first step towards better understanding causes for...

  18. Chaos, spontaneous climatic variations and detection of the greenhouse effect

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lorenz, E.N.

    1990-01-01

    The author illustrates some of the general properties of chaotic dissipative dynamical systems with a simple model. One frequently observed property is the existence of extended intervals, longer than any built-in time scale, during which the system exhibits one type of behavior, followed by extended intervals when another type predominates. In models designed to simulate a climate system with no external variability, he finds that an interval may persist for decades. He notes the consequent difficult in attributing particular real climatic changes to causes that are not purely internal. He concludes that he cannot say at present, on the basis of observations alone, that a greenhouse-gas-induced global warming has already set in, nor can he say that it has not already set in

  19. Spatial and Temporal Climatic Variation in Coastal Tanzania

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rohli, R. V.; Ates, S.; Rivera-Monroy, V. H.; Polito, M. J.; Midway, S. R.; Gold, A.; Castañeda-Moya, E.; Uchida, E.; Suwa, M.; Mangora, M. M.

    2017-12-01

    Climatic controls are particularly important to the natural and human systems in coastal Tanzania, where mangrove vegetation is a major component of world-renowned biodiversity. This research provides an improved understanding of the climatic features and forcing mechanisms that support the critical mangroves of Tanzania and the livelihoods of its populace, using updated and complete datasets. Updated data confirm that coastal Tanzania falls in the tropical wet-dry Köppen-Geiger climatic type, except for the extreme north, where tropical rain forest exists north of Pangani. The northeast monsoon, known as the kaskazi, largely corresponds to the rainy November-December and March-May months. The southeast monsoon - known as the kusi - overlaps with the drier June-September. Results suggest that El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are key modulators of precipitation variability in the entire area. More specifically, September-November positive precipitation anomalies occur during positive IOD, especially when combined with El Niño, with slightly negative anomalies during negative IOD, especially when combined with La Niña. The rest of the year tends to show similar precipitation during both IOD phases (March-August) or less precipitation during the positive phase (December-February). Because the literature suggests likelihood of more frequent positive IOD mode and a strengthened relationship of these events to warm-ENSO events, changes to the hydrologic cycle in east Africa may be likely in the future, with a potential for an expanded secondary rainy season and a drier "saddle" between the secondary and primary rainy seasons (i.e., December-February). Therefore, future research should investigate in more detail the influence of the IOD and ENSO on various components of the climatic water balance. Results may be useful to earth, environmental, and social scientists as they seek further understanding of the drivers of ecological and

  20. Co-variations of Cholera with Climatic and Environmental ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Significant co-variations were found between seasonally adjusted cases and coastal ocean chlorophyll a and to some degree sea surface temperature, both lagged by one to four months. Cholera cases in Dar es Salaam were also weakly related to the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index lagged by 5 months, suggesting that it ...

  1. Climate variation alters the synchrony of host–parasitoid interactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Although some research has examined how parasitoids will respond to colder temperatures or experimental warming, we know relatively little about how increased variation in temperature could affect interactions between parasitoids and their hosts. Using a study system consisting of emerald ash borer...

  2. Genetic diversity is related to climatic variation and vulnerability in threatened bull trout

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kovach, Ryan; Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Wade, Alisa A.; Hand, Brian K.; Whited, Diane C.; DeHaan, Patrick W.; Al-Chokhachy, Robert K.; Luikart, Gordon

    2015-01-01

    Understanding how climatic variation influences ecological and evolutionary processes is crucial for informed conservation decision-making. Nevertheless, few studies have measured how climatic variation influences genetic diversity within populations or how genetic diversity is distributed across space relative to future climatic stress. Here, we tested whether patterns of genetic diversity (allelic richness) were related to climatic variation and habitat features in 130 bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) populations from 24 watersheds (i.e., ~4–7th order river subbasins) across the Columbia River Basin, USA. We then determined whether bull trout genetic diversity was related to climate vulnerability at the watershed scale, which we quantified on the basis of exposure to future climatic conditions (projected scenarios for the 2040s) and existing habitat complexity. We found a strong gradient in genetic diversity in bull trout populations across the Columbia River Basin, where populations located in the most upstream headwater areas had the greatest genetic diversity. After accounting for spatial patterns with linear mixed models, allelic richness in bull trout populations was positively related to habitat patch size and complexity, and negatively related to maximum summer temperature and the frequency of winter flooding. These relationships strongly suggest that climatic variation influences evolutionary processes in this threatened species and that genetic diversity will likely decrease due to future climate change. Vulnerability at a watershed scale was negatively correlated with average genetic diversity (r = −0.77;P bull trout and other imperiled species. Genetic diversity is already depressed where climatic vulnerability is highest; it will likely erode further in the very places where diversity may be most needed for future persistence.

  3. Impact of climate variations on Managed Aquifer Recharge infiltration basins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barquero, Felix; Stefan, Catalin

    2017-04-01

    KEYWORDS: Managed Aquifer Recharge, field scale infiltration unit, climatic conditions, numerical model Managed Aquifer Recharge (MAR) is a technique that is gaining more attention as a sustainable alternative for areas where water scarcity is increasing. Main concept relies on facilitating the vertical infiltration of a source of fresh water (river water, rainwater, reclaimed water, etc). The groundwater acts as storage of water for further use in the future, for example in times of water scarcity. In some MAR types the soil itself can be used even as a filter for the removal of specific organic and inorganic compounds. In order to promote the benefits of MAR in different zones of the globe with variable climate conditions, including the effects of climate change, a numerical model (HYDRUS 2D/3D) is being set up. Coupled with the model a field-scale rapid infiltration unit (4m x 5m x 1.5m) was constructed with the capacity to log different MAR key parameters in the soil (tension, water content, temperature and electrical conductivity) in space and time. These data will feed the model for its calibration using specific hydrogeological characteristics of the packing material and hydraulic characteristics of the infiltrated fluid. The unit is located in the city of Pirna (German), 200 m north from the Elbe River where the groundwater level varies seasonally between 6 and 9 m below the ground surface. Together with the field scale rapid infiltration unit, a set of multi-parametric sensors (measuring in time: water stage, electrical conductivity, dissolved oxygen and temperature) in six monitoring wells, located on the basin surroundings, were installed. The purpose of these sensors is to estimate, via tracer experiments, the time that the infiltrated water needed to reach the groundwater and the flow speed in which it travelled once it reached the saturated zone. Once calibrated, the model will be able to estimate the flow behaviour under variable climate conditions

  4. Community functional responses to soil and climate at multiple spatial scales: when does intraspecific variation matter?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew Siefert

    Full Text Available Despite increasing evidence of the importance of intraspecific trait variation in plant communities, its role in community trait responses to environmental variation, particularly along broad-scale climatic gradients, is poorly understood. We analyzed functional trait variation among early-successional herbaceous plant communities (old fields across a 1200-km latitudinal extent in eastern North America, focusing on four traits: vegetative height, leaf area, specific leaf area (SLA, and leaf dry matter content (LDMC. We determined the contributions of species turnover and intraspecific variation to between-site functional dissimilarity at multiple spatial scales and community trait responses to edaphic and climatic factors. Among-site variation in community mean trait values and community trait responses to the environment were generated by a combination of species turnover and intraspecific variation, with species turnover making a greater contribution for all traits. The relative importance of intraspecific variation decreased with increasing geographic and environmental distance between sites for SLA and leaf area. Intraspecific variation was most important for responses of vegetative height and responses to edaphic compared to climatic factors. Individual species displayed strong trait responses to environmental factors in many cases, but these responses were highly variable among species and did not usually scale up to the community level. These findings provide new insights into the role of intraspecific trait variation in plant communities and the factors controlling its relative importance. The contribution of intraspecific variation to community trait responses was greatest at fine spatial scales and along edaphic gradients, while species turnover dominated at broad spatial scales and along climatic gradients.

  5. Climate warming: a loss of variation in populations can accompany reproductive shifts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Massot, Manuel; Legendre, Stéphane; Fédérici, Pierre; Clobert, Jean

    2017-09-01

    The most documented response of organisms to climate warming is a change in the average timing of seasonal activities (phenology). Although we know that these average changes can differ among species and populations, we do not know whether climate warming impacts within-population variation in phenology. Using data from five study sites collected during a 13-year survey, we found that the increase in spring temperatures is associated with a reproductive advance of 10 days in natural populations of common lizards (Zootoca vivipara). Interestingly, we show a correlated loss of variation in reproductive dates within populations. As illustrated by a model, this shortening of the reproductive period can have significant negative effects on population dynamics. Consequently, we encourage tests in other species to assess the generality of decreased variation in phenological responses to climate change. © 2017 The Authors Ecology Letters published by CNRS and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  6. Global climate change model natural climate variation: Paleoclimate data base, probabilities and astronomic predictors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kukla, G.; Gavin, J. [Columbia Univ., Palisades, NY (United States). Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory

    1994-05-01

    This report was prepared at the Lamont-Doherty Geological Observatory of Columbia University at Palisades, New York, under subcontract to Pacific Northwest Laboratory it is a part of a larger project of global climate studies which supports site characterization work required for the selection of a potential high-level nuclear waste repository and forms part of the Performance Assessment Scientific Support (PASS) Program at PNL. The work under the PASS Program is currently focusing on the proposed site at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, and is under the overall direction of the Yucca Mountain Project Office US Department of Energy, Las Vegas, Nevada. The final results of the PNL project will provide input to global atmospheric models designed to test specific climate scenarios which will be used in the site specific modeling work of others. The primary purpose of the data bases compiled and of the astronomic predictive models is to aid in the estimation of the probabilities of future climate states. The results will be used by two other teams working on the global climate study under contract to PNL. They are located at and the University of Maine in Orono, Maine, and the Applied Research Corporation in College Station, Texas. This report presents the results of the third year`s work on the global climate change models and the data bases describing past climates.

  7. Variation of a Lightning NOx Indicator for National Climate Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koshak, W. J.; Vant-Hull, B.; McCaul, E. W.; Peterson, H. S.

    2014-01-01

    In support of the National Climate Assessment (NCA) program, satellite Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) data is used to estimate lightning nitrogen oxides (LNOx) production over the southern portion of the conterminous US. The total energy of each flash is estimated by analyzing the LIS optical event data associated with each flash (i.e., event radiance, event footprint area, and derivable event range). The LIS detects an extremely small fraction of the total flash energy; this fraction is assumed to be constant apart from the variability associated with the flash optical energy detected across the narrow (0.909 nm) LIS band. The estimate of total energy from each flash is converted to moles of LNOx production by assuming a chemical yield of 10(17) molecules Joule(-1). The LIS-inferred variable LNOx production from each flash is summed to obtain total LNOx production, and then appropriately enhanced to account for LIS detection efficiency and LIS view time. Annual geographical plots and time series of LNOx production are provided for a 16 year period (1998-2013).

  8. Holocene hydrologic variation at Lake Titicaca, Bolivia/Peru, and its relationship to North Atlantic climate variation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, P. A.; Fritz, S. C.; Garland, J.; Ekdahl, E.

    2005-10-01

    A growing number of sites in the Northern Hemisphere show centennial- to millennial-scale climate variation that has been correlated with change in solar variability or with change in North Atlantic circulation. However, it is unclear how (or whether) these oscillations in the climate system are manifest in the Southern Hemisphere because of a lack of sites with suitably high sampling resolution. In this paper, we reconstruct the lake-level history of Lake Titicaca, using the carbon isotopic content of sedimentary organic matter, to evaluate centennial- to millennial-scale precipitation variation and its phasing relative to sites in the Northern Hemisphere. The pattern and timing of lake-level change in Lake Titicaca is similar to the ice-rafted debris record of Holocene Bond events, demonstrating a possible coupling between precipitation variation on the Altiplano and North Atlantic sea-surface temperatures (SSTs). The cold periods of the Holocene Bond events correspond with periods of increased precipitation on the Altiplano. Holocene precipitation variability on the Altiplano is anti-phased with respect to precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere monsoon region. More generally, the tropical Andes underwent large changes in precipitation on centennial-to-millennial timescales during the Holocene.

  9. Climatic factors, genetic structure and phenotypic variation in English yew (Taxus baccata L.)

    OpenAIRE

    Mayol, Maria; Berganzo, Elisa; Burgarella, Concetta; González-Martínez, Santiago C.; Grivet, Delphine; Vendramin, Giovanni G.; Vincenot, Lucie; Riba, Miquel

    2018-01-01

    Influence of climatic factors on genetic structure and phenotypic variation in English yew (Taxus baccata L.) Conference "Adapting to global change in the Mediterranean hotspot" (Seville, 18-20 September 2013) Mediterranean forests constitute long-term reservoirs of biodiversity and adaptive potential. As compared with their central or northern European counterparts, Mediterranean forests are characterized by highly heterogeneous and fragmented environments, ...

  10. Utilizing intraspecific variation in phenotypic plasticity to bolster agricultural and forest productivity under climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aspinwall, Michael J; Loik, Michael E; Resco de Dios, Victor; Tjoelker, Mark G; Payton, Paxton R; Tissue, David T

    2015-09-01

    Climate change threatens the ability of agriculture and forestry to meet growing global demands for food, fibre and wood products. Information gathered from genotype-by-environment interactions (G × E), which demonstrate intraspecific variation in phenotypic plasticity (the ability of a genotype to alter its phenotype in response to environmental change), may prove important for bolstering agricultural and forest productivity under climate change. Nonetheless, very few studies have explicitly quantified genotype plasticity-productivity relationships in agriculture or forestry. Here, we conceptualize the importance of intraspecific variation in agricultural and forest species plasticity, and discuss the physiological and genetic factors contributing to intraspecific variation in phenotypic plasticity. Our discussion highlights the need for an integrated understanding of the mechanisms of G × E, more extensive assessments of genotypic responses to climate change under field conditions, and explicit testing of genotype plasticity-productivity relationships. Ultimately, further investigation of intraspecific variation in phenotypic plasticity in agriculture and forestry may prove important for identifying genotypes capable of increasing or sustaining productivity under more extreme climatic conditions. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  11. Geographic variation in opinions on climate change at state and local scales in the USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howe, Peter D.; Mildenberger, Matto; Marlon, Jennifer R.; Leiserowitz, Anthony

    2015-06-01

    Addressing climate change in the United States requires enactment of national, state and local mitigation and adaptation policies. The success of these initiatives depends on public opinion, policy support and behaviours at appropriate scales. Public opinion, however, is typically measured with national surveys that obscure geographic variability across regions, states and localities. Here we present independently validated high-resolution opinion estimates using a multilevel regression and poststratification model. The model accurately predicts climate change beliefs, risk perceptions and policy preferences at the state, congressional district, metropolitan and county levels, using a concise set of demographic and geographic predictors. The analysis finds substantial variation in public opinion across the nation. Nationally, 63% of Americans believe global warming is happening, but county-level estimates range from 43 to 80%, leading to a diversity of political environments for climate policy. These estimates provide an important new source of information for policymakers, educators and scientists to more effectively address the challenges of climate change.

  12. Periodical climate variations and their impact on Earth rotation for the last 800Kyr

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chapanov, Yavor; Gambis, Daniel

    2010-05-01

    The Earth rotation variations are highly affected by climatic variations associated with the glacial cycles in the late Pleistocene. The processes of glaciation, followed by ice melting, are connected with significant changes of the mean sea level. These processes redistribute great amount of water masses between oceans and ice sheets, which lead to changes of the axial moment of inertia and corresponding variations of the Universal Time UT1 and Length of Day LOD, according to the law of angular momentum conservation. The climatic variations for the last 800Kyr are analyzed by means of time series of temperature changes, determined by deuterium data from Antarctica ice core. Reconstructed glacial sea level variations for the last 380Kyr, determined by the sediments from the Red sea, are used, too. Common periodicities of the temperature and mean sea level variations are determined. Time series of the long-periodical UT1 and LOD oscillations for the last 380Kyr and 800Kyr are reconstructed by means of empirical hydrological model of global water redistribution between the ocean and ice sheets during the last glacial events.

  13. Relationship between climatic variables and the variation in bulk tank milk composition using canonical correlation analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stürmer, Morgana; Busanello, Marcos; Velho, João Pedro; Heck, Vanessa Isabel; Haygert-Velho, Ione Maria Pereira

    2018-06-04

    A number of studies have addressed the relations between climatic variables and milk composition, but these works used univariate statistical approaches. In our study, we used a multivariate approach (canonical correlation) to study the impact of climatic variables on milk composition, price, and monthly milk production at a dairy farm using bulk tank milk data. Data on milk composition, price, and monthly milk production were obtained from a dairy company that purchased the milk from the farm, while climatic variable data were obtained from the National Institute of Meteorology (INMET). The data are from January 2014 to December 2016. Univariate correlation analysis and canonical correlation analysis were performed. Few correlations between the climatic variables and milk composition were found using a univariate approach. However, using canonical correlation analysis, we found a strong and significant correlation (r c  = 0.95, p value = 0.0029). Lactose, ambient temperature measures (mean, minimum, and maximum), and temperature-humidity index (THI) were found to be the most important variables for the canonical correlation. Our study indicated that 10.2% of the variation in milk composition, pricing, and monthly milk production can be explained by climatic variables. Ambient temperature variables, together with THI, seem to have the most influence on variation in milk composition.

  14. Characterizing the Sensitivity of Groundwater Storage to Climate variation in the Indus Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, L.; Sabo, J. L.

    2017-12-01

    Indus Basin represents an extensive groundwater aquifer facing the challenge of effective management of limited water resources. Groundwater storage is one of the most important variables of water balance, yet its sensitivity to climate change has rarely been explored. To better estimate present and future groundwater storage and its sensitivity to climate change in the Indus Basin, we analyzed groundwater recharge/discharge and their historical evolution in this basin. Several methods are applied to specify the aquifer system including: water level change and storativity estimates, gravity estimates (GRACE), flow model (MODFLOW), water budget analysis and extrapolation. In addition, all of the socioeconomic and engineering aspects are represented in the hydrological system through the change of temporal and spatial distributions of recharge and discharge (e.g., land use, crop structure, water allocation, etc.). Our results demonstrate that the direct impacts of climate change will result in unevenly distributed but increasing groundwater storage in the short term through groundwater recharge. In contrast, long term groundwater storage will decrease as a result of combined indirect and direct impacts of climate change (e.g. recharge/discharge and human activities). The sensitivity of groundwater storage to climate variation is characterized by topography, aquifer specifics and land use. Furthermore, by comparing possible outcomes of different human interventions scenarios, our study reveals human activities play an important role in affecting the sensitivity of groundwater storage to climate variation. Over all, this study presents the feasibility and value of using integrated hydrological methods to support sustainable water resource management under climate change.

  15. Climate vs. tectonic induced variations in Cenozoic sediment supply from western Scandinavia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gołędowski, Bartosz; Nielsen, S.B.; Clausen, O.R.

    The scope of this work is the causality of sediment flux variations from western Scandinavia during the Cenozoic. Over the decades of exploration in the North Sea and in the Norwegian shelf most of these variations were given tectonic causes. During the final period of North Atlantic break......-up (Paleocene-Early Eocene) this link is quite striking, especially in the northern British Isles and in the Faeroe-Shetland Platform where sediment production pulses can be correlated with well documented periods of tectonic activity (e.g. magmatism). However, during the subsequent Cenozoic epochs this link...... is much less constrained. For this period we therefore search for an alternative explanation in terms of climate and climate change [1-3] Methods The extensive seismic and well data set allow investigation of inland erosion rates via the offshore distribution of sediments. However, varying marine...

  16. Millennial-scale Climate Variations Recorded As Far Back As The Early Pliocene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steenbrink, J.; Hilgen, F. J.; Lourens, L. J.

    Quaternary climate proxy records show compelling evidence for climate variability on time scales of a few thousand years. The causes for these millennial-scale or sub- Milankovitch cycles are yet poorly understood, not in the least due to the complex feedback mechanisms of large ice-sheets during the Quaternary. We present evidence of millennial-scale climate variability in Early Pliocene lacustrine sediments from the intramontane Ptolemais Basin in northwestern Greece. The sediments are well ex- posed in a series of open-pit lignite mines and exhibit a distinct m-scale sedimentary cyclicity of alternating lignites and lacustrine marl beds that result from precession- induced variations in climate. A higher-frequency cyclicity is particular prominent within the marl segment of individual cycles. A stratigraphic interval of~115 kyr, cov- ering five precession-induced sedimentary cycles, was studied in nine parallel sections from two quarries located several km apart. Colour reflectance records were used to quantify the within-cycle variability and to determine its lateral continuity. Much of the within-cycle variability could be correlated between the parallel sections, even in fine detail, which suggests that these changes reflect basin-wide variations in environ- mental conditions related to (regional) climate fluctuations. Interbedded volcanic ash beds demonstrate the synchronicity of these fluctuations and spectral analysis of the reflectance time series shows a significant concentration of variability at periods of ~11,~5.5 and~2 kyr. Their occurrence at times before the intensification of the North- ern Hemisphere glaciation suggests that they cannot solely have resulted from internal ice-sheet dynamics. Possible candidates include harmonics or combination tones of the main orbital cycles, variations in solar output or periodic motions of the Earth and moon.

  17. Bedrock displacements in Greenland manifest ice mass variations, climate cycles and climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bevis, Michael; Wahr, John; Khan, Shfaqat Abbas

    2012-01-01

    for by an annual oscillation superimposed on a sustained trend. The oscillation is driven by earth’s elastic response to seasonal variations in ice mass and air mass (i.e., atmospheric pressure). Observed vertical velocities are higher and often much higher than predicted rates of postglacial rebound (PGR......), implying that uplift is usually dominated by the solid earth’s instantaneous elastic response to contemporary losses in ice mass rather than PGR. Superimposed on longer-term trends, an anomalous ‘pulse’ of uplift accumulated at many GNET stations during an approximate six-month period in 2010...

  18. [Responses of vegetation changes to climatic variations in Panxi area based on the MODIS multispectral data].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shao, Huai-Yong; Wu, Jin-Hui; Liu, Meng; Yang, Wu-Nian

    2014-01-01

    It is an important research area to quantitatively studying the relationship between global climatic change and vegetation change based on the remote sensing technology. Panxi area is the ecological barrier of the upper reaches of the Yangtze River, and it is essential for the stability of the ecological environment of Sichuan as well as that of the whole China. The present article analyzes the vegetation change in 2001-2008 and the relationship between vegetation change and climatic variations of Panxi area, based on MODIS multispectral data and meteorological data. The results indicate that NDVI is positively correlated with temperature and precipitation. The precipitation is the major factor that affects the change of vegetation in the Panxi region and the trend of NDVI is similar with autumn precipitation; while at the same time the influence of climate has a one-month-time-lag.

  19. Differences in the efficacy of climate forcings explained by variations in atmospheric boundary layer depth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davy, Richard; Esau, Igor

    2016-05-25

    The Earth has warmed in the last century and a large component of that warming has been attributed to increased anthropogenic greenhouse gases. There are also numerous processes that introduce strong, regionalized variations to the overall warming trend. However, the ability of a forcing to change the surface air temperature depends on its spatial and temporal distribution. Here we show that the efficacy of a forcing is determined by the effective heat capacity of the atmosphere, which in cold and dry climates is defined by the depth of the planetary boundary layer. This can vary by an order of magnitude on different temporal and spatial scales, and so we get a strongly amplified temperature response in shallow boundary layers. This must be accounted for to assess the efficacy of a climate forcing, and also implies that multiple climate forcings cannot be linearly combined to determine the temperature response.

  20. Body Size Adaptations to Altitudinal Climatic Variation in Neotropical Grasshoppers of the Genus Sphenarium (Orthoptera: Pyrgomorphidae)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-01-01

    Altitudinal clines in body size can result from the effects of natural and sexual selection on growth rates and developing times in seasonal environments. Short growing and reproductive seasons constrain the body size that adults can attain and their reproductive success. Little is known about the effects of altitudinal climatic variation on the diversification of Neotropical insects. In central Mexico, in addition to altitude, highly heterogeneous topography generates diverse climates that can occur even at the same latitude. Altitudinal variation and heterogeneous topography open an opportunity to test the relative impact of climatic variation on body size adaptations. In this study, we investigated the relationship between altitudinal climatic variation and body size, and the divergence rates of sexual size dimorphism (SSD) in Neotropical grasshoppers of the genus Sphenarium using a phylogenetic comparative approach. In order to distinguish the relative impact of natural and sexual selection on the diversification of the group, we also tracked the altitudinal distribution of the species and trends of both body size and SSD on the phylogeny of Sphenarium. The correlative evidence suggests no relationship between altitude and body size. However, larger species were associated with places having a warmer winter season in which the temporal window for development and reproduction can be longer. Nonetheless, the largest species were also associated with highly seasonal environments. Moreover, large body size and high levels of SSD have evolved independently several times throughout the history of the group and male body size has experienced a greater evolutionary divergence than females. These lines of evidence suggest that natural selection, associated with seasonality and sexual selection, on maturation time and body size could have enhanced the diversification of this insect group. PMID:26684616

  1. [Variation trends of natural vegetation net primary productivity in China under climate change scenario].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Dong-sheng; Wu, Shao-hong; Yin, Yun-he

    2011-04-01

    Based on the widely used Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPJ) for climate change study, and according to the features of natural environment in China, the operation mechanism of the model was adjusted, and the parameters were modified. With the modified LPJ model and taking 1961-1990 as baseline period, the responses of natural vegetation net primary productivity (NPP) in China to climate change in 1991-2080 were simulated under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) B2 scenario. In 1961-1990, the total NPP of natural vegetation in China was about 3.06 Pg C a(-1); in 1961-2080, the total NPP showed a fluctuant decreasing trend, with an accelerated decreasing rate. Under the condition of slight precipitation change, the increase of mean air temperature would have definite adverse impact on the NPP. Spatially, the NPP decreased from southeast coast to northwest inland, and this pattern would have less variation under climate change. In eastern China with higher NPP, especially in Northeast China, east of North China, and Loess Plateau, the NPP would mainly have a decreasing trend; while in western China with lower NPP, especially in the Tibetan Plateau and Tarim Basin, the NPP would be increased. With the intensive climate change, such a variation trend of NPP would be more obvious.

  2. Climate-related variation in plant peak biomass and growth phenology across Pacific Northwest tidal marshes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buffington, Kevin J.; Dugger, Bruce D.; Thorne, Karen M.

    2018-01-01

    The interannual variability of tidal marsh plant phenology is largely unknown and may have important ecological consequences. Marsh plants are critical to the biogeomorphic feedback processes that build estuarine soils, maintain marsh elevation relative to sea level, and sequester carbon. We calculated Tasseled Cap Greenness, a metric of plant biomass, using remotely sensed data available in the Landsat archive to assess how recent climate variation has affected biomass production and plant phenology across three maritime tidal marshes in the Pacific Northwest of the United States. First, we used clipped vegetation plots at one of our sites to confirm that tasseled cap greenness provided a useful measure of aboveground biomass (r2 = 0.72). We then used multiple measures of biomass each growing season over 20–25 years per study site and developed models to test how peak biomass and the date of peak biomass varied with 94 climate and sea-level metrics using generalized linear models and Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) model selection. Peak biomass was positively related to total annual precipitation, while the best predictor for date of peak biomass was average growing season temperature, with the peak 7.2 days earlier per degree C. Our study provides insight into how plants in maritime tidal marshes respond to interannual climate variation and demonstrates the utility of time-series remote sensing data to assess ecological responses to climate stressors.

  3. Climate and foraging mode explain interspecific variation in snake metabolic rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dupoué, Andréaz; Brischoux, François; Lourdais, Olivier

    2017-11-29

    The energy cost of self-maintenance is a critical facet of life-history strategies. Clarifying the determinant of interspecific variation in metabolic rate (MR) at rest is important to understand and predict ecological patterns such as species distributions or responses to climatic changes. We examined variation of MR in snakes, a group characterized by a remarkable diversity of activity rates and a wide distribution. We collated previously published MR data ( n = 491 observations) measured in 90 snake species at different trial temperatures. We tested for the effects of metabolic state (standard MR (SMR) versus resting MR (RMR)), foraging mode (active versus ambush foragers) and climate (temperature and precipitation) while accounting for non-independence owing to phylogeny, body mass and thermal dependence. We found that RMR was 40% higher than SMR, and that active foragers have higher MR than species that ambush their prey. We found that MR was higher in cold environments, supporting the metabolic cold adaptation hypothesis. We also found an additive and positive effect of precipitation on MR suggesting that lower MR in arid environments may decrease dehydration and energetic costs. Altogether, our findings underline the complex influences of climate and foraging mode on MR and emphasize the relevance of these facets to understand the physiological impact of climate change. © 2017 The Author(s).

  4. Climate-related variation in plant peak biomass and growth phenology across Pacific Northwest tidal marshes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buffington, Kevin J.; Dugger, Bruce D.; Thorne, Karen M.

    2018-03-01

    The interannual variability of tidal marsh plant phenology is largely unknown and may have important ecological consequences. Marsh plants are critical to the biogeomorphic feedback processes that build estuarine soils, maintain marsh elevation relative to sea level, and sequester carbon. We calculated Tasseled Cap Greenness, a metric of plant biomass, using remotely sensed data available in the Landsat archive to assess how recent climate variation has affected biomass production and plant phenology across three maritime tidal marshes in the Pacific Northwest of the United States. First, we used clipped vegetation plots at one of our sites to confirm that tasseled cap greenness provided a useful measure of aboveground biomass (r2 = 0.72). We then used multiple measures of biomass each growing season over 20-25 years per study site and developed models to test how peak biomass and the date of peak biomass varied with 94 climate and sea-level metrics using generalized linear models and Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) model selection. Peak biomass was positively related to total annual precipitation, while the best predictor for date of peak biomass was average growing season temperature, with the peak 7.2 days earlier per degree C. Our study provides insight into how plants in maritime tidal marshes respond to interannual climate variation and demonstrates the utility of time-series remote sensing data to assess ecological responses to climate stressors.

  5. Recent changes in seasonal variations of climate within the range of northern caribou populations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul H. Whitfield

    2005-05-01

    Full Text Available The Arctic is one region where it is expected that the impacts of a globally changing climate will be readily observed. We present results that indicate that climate derivatives of potential significance to caribou changed during the past 50 years. Many temperature derivatives reflect the increasing overall temperature in the Arctic such as decreases in the number of days with low temperatures, increases in the number of days with thaw, and days with extremely warm temperatures. Other derivatives reflect changes in the precipitation regime such as days with heavy precipitation and number of days when rain fell on snow. Our results indicate that specific caribou herds from across the Arctic were subjected to different variations of these derivatives in different seasons in the recent past. Examination of temperature and precipitation at finer time-steps than annual or monthly means, shows that climatic variations in the region are neither consistent through the seasons nor across space. Decadal changes in seasonal patterns of temperature and precipitation are shown for selected herds. A process for assessing caribou-focused climate derivatives is proposed.

  6. Climate alters intraspecific variation in copepod effect traits through pond food webs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charette, Cristina; Derry, Alison M

    2016-05-01

    Essential fatty acids (EFAs) are primarily generated by phytoplankton in aquatic ecosystems, and can limit the growth, development, and reproduction of higher consumers. Among the most critical of the EFAs are highly unsaturated fatty acids (HUFAs), which are only produced by certain groups of phytoplankton. Changing environmental conditions can alter phytoplankton community and fatty acid composition and affect the HUFA content of higher trophic levels. Almost no research has addressed intraspecific variation in HUFAs in zooplankton, nor intraspecific relationships of HUFAs with body size and fecundity. This is despite that intraspecific variation in HUFAs can exceed interspecific variation and that intraspecific trait variation in body size and fecundity is increasingly recognized to have an important role in food web ecology (effect traits). Our study addressed the relative influences of abiotic selection and food web effects associated with climate change on intraspecific differences and interrelationships between HUFA content, body size, and fecundity of freshwater copepods. We applied structural equation modeling and regression analyses to intraspecific variation in a dominant calanoid copepod, Leptodiatomus minutus, among a series of shallow north-temperate ponds. Climate-driven diurnal temperature fluctuations favored the coexistence of diversity of phytoplankton groups with different temperature optima and nutritive quality. This resulted in unexpected positive relationships between temperature, copepod DHA content and body size. Temperature correlated positively with diatom biovolume, and mediated relationships between copepod HUFA content and body size, and between copepod body size and fecundity. The presence of brook trout further accentuated these positive effects in warm ponds, likely through nutrient cycling and stimulation of phytoplankton resources. Climate change may have previously unrecognized positive effects on freshwater copepod DHA content

  7. Effects of land cover and regional climate variations on long-term spatiotemporal changes in sagebrush ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xian, George Z.; Homer, Collin G.; Aldridge, Cameron L.

    2012-01-01

    This research investigated the effects of climate and land cover change on variation in sagebrush ecosystems. We combined information of multi-year sagebrush distribution derived from multitemporal remote sensing imagery and climate data to study the variation patterns of sagebrush ecosystems under different potential disturbances. We found that less than 40% of sagebrush ecosystem changes involved abrupt changes directly caused by landscape transformations and over 60% of the variations involved gradual changes directly related to climatic perturbations. The primary increases in bare ground and declines in sagebrush vegetation abundance were significantly correlated with the 1996-2006 decreasing trend in annual precipitation.

  8. Climatic variation and age-specific survival in Asian elephants from Myanmar.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mumby, Hannah S; Courtiol, Alexandre; Mar, Khyne U; Lummaa, Virpi

    2013-05-01

    Concern about climate change has intensified interest in understanding how climatic variability affects animal life histories. Despite such effects being potentially most dramatic in large, long-lived, and slowly reproducing terrestrial mammals, little is known of the effects of climatic variation on survival in those species. Asian elephants (Elephas maximus) are endangered across their distribution, and inhabit regions characterized by high seasonality of temperature and rainfall. We investigated the effects of monthly climatic variation on survival and causes of death in Asian elephants using a unique demographic data set of 1024 semi-captive, longitudinally monitored elephants from four sites in Myanmar between 1965 and 2000. Temperature had a significant effect on survival in both sexes and across all ages. For elephants between 1 month and 17 years of age, maximal survival was reached at -24 degrees C, and any departures from this temperature increased mortality, whereas neonates and mature elephants had maximal survival at even lower temperatures. Although males experienced higher mortality overall, sex differences in these optimal temperatures were small. Because the elephants spent more time during a year in temperatures above 24 degrees C than in temperatures below it, most deaths occurred at hot (temperatures>24 degrees C) rather than cold periods. Decreased survival at higher temperatures resulted partially from increased deaths from infectious disease and heat stroke, whereas the lower survival in the coldest months was associated with an increase in noninfectious diseases and poor health in general. Survival was also related to rainfall, with the highest survival rates during the wettest months for all ages and sexes. Our results show that even the normal-range monsoon variation in climate can exert a large impact on elephant survival in Myanmar, leading to extensive absolute differences in mortality; switching from favorable to unfavorable climatic

  9. Sensitivity of intermittent streams to climate variations in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eng, K.

    2015-12-01

    There is growing interest in the effects of climate change on streamflows because of the potential negative effects on aquatic biota and water supplies. Previous studies of climate controls on flows have primarily focused on perennial streams, and few studies have examined the effect of climate variability on intermittent streams. Our objectives in this study were to (1) identify regions showing similar patterns of intermittency, and (2) evaluate the sensitivity of intermittent streams to historical variability in climate in the United States. This study was carried out at 265 intermittent streams by evaluating: (1) correlations among time series of flow metrics (number of zero-flow events, the average of the central 50% and largest 10% of flows) with precipitation (magnitudes, durations and intensity) and temperature, and (2) decadal changes in the seasonality and long-term trends of these flow metrics. Results identified five distinct seasonal patterns of flow intermittency: fall, fall-to-winter, non-seasonal, summer, and summer-to-winter intermittent streams. In addition, strong associations between the low-flow metrics and historical climate variability were found. However, the lack of trends in historical variations in precipitation results in no significant seasonal shifts or decade-to-decade trends in the low-flow metrics over the period of record (1950 to 2013).

  10. Variation in adult stress resistance does not explain vulnerability to climate change in copper butterflies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klockmann, Michael; Wallmeyer, Leonard; Fischer, Klaus

    2017-03-15

    Ongoing climate change is a major threat to biodiversity. However, although many species clearly suffer from ongoing climate change, others benefit from it, for example, by showing range expansions. However, which specific features determine a species' vulnerability to climate change? Phenotypic plasticity, which has been described as the first line of defence against environmental change, may be of utmost importance here. Against this background, we here compare plasticity in stress tolerance in 3 copper butterfly species, which differ arguably in their vulnerability to climate change. Specifically, we investigated heat, cold and desiccation resistance after acclimatization to different temperatures in the adult stage. We demonstrate that acclimation at a higher temperature increased heat but decreased cold tolerance and desiccation resistance. Contrary to our predictions, species did not show pronounced variation in stress resistance, though plastic capacities in temperature stress resistance did vary across species. Overall, our results seemed to reflect population-rather than species-specific patterns. We conclude that the geographical origin of the populations used should be considered even in comparative studies. However, our results suggest that, in the 3 species studied here, vulnerability to climate change is not in the first place determined by stress resistance in the adult stage. As entomological studies focus all too often on adults only, we argue that more research effort should be dedicated to other developmental stages when trying to understand insect responses to environmental change. © 2017 Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences.

  11. Temporal variation of out-of-hospital cardiac arrests in an equatorial climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ong, Marcus Eh; Ng, Faith Sp; Yap, Susan; Yong, Kok Leong; Peberdy, Mary A; Ornato, Joseph P

    2010-01-01

    We aimed to determine whether there is a seasonal variation of out-of-hospital cardiac arrests (OHCA) in an equatorial climate, which does not experience seasonal environmental change. We conducted an observational prospective study looking at the occurrence of OHCA in Singapore. Included were all patients with OHCA presented to Emergency Departments across the country. We examined the monthly, daily, and hourly number of cases over a three-year period. Data was analyzed using analysis of variance (ANOVA). From October, 1st 2001 to October, 14th 2004, 2428 patients were enrolled in the study. Mean age for cardiac arrests was 60.6 years with 68.0% male. Ethnic distribution was 69.5% Chinese, 15.0% Malay, 11.0% Indian, and 4.4% Others. There was no significant seasonal variation (spring/summer/fall/winter) of events (ANOVA P = 0.71), monthly variation (P = 0.88) or yearly variation (P = 0.26). We did find weekly peaks on Mondays and a circadian pattern with daily peaks from 9-10 am. We did not find any discernable seasonal pattern of cardiac arrests. This contrasts with findings from temperate countries and suggests a climatic influence on cardiac arrest occurrence. We also found that sudden cardiac arrests follow a circadian pattern.

  12. Quantifying geographic variation in the climatic drivers of midcontinent wetlands with a spatially varying coefficient model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roy, Christian

    2015-01-01

    The wetlands in the Prairie Pothole Region and in the Great Plains are notorious for their sensitivity to weather variability. These wetlands have been the focus of considerable attention because of their ecological importance and because of the expected impact of climate change. Few models in the literature, however, take into account spatial variation in the importance of wetland drivers. This is surprising given the importance spatial heterogeneity in geomorphology and climatic conditions have in the region. In this paper, I use spatially-varying coefficients to assess the variation in ecological drivers in a number of ponds observed over a 50-year period (1961-2012). I included the number of ponds observed the year before on a log scale, the log of total precipitation, and mean maximum temperature during the four previous seasons as explanatory variables. I also included a temporal component to capture change in the number of ponds due to anthropogenic disturbance. Overall, fall and spring precipitation were most important in pond abundance in the west, whereas winter and summer precipitation were the most important drivers in the east. The ponds in the east of the survey area were also more dependent on pond abundance during the previous year than those in the west. Spring temperature during the previous season influenced pond abundance; while the temperature during the other seasons had a limited effect. The ponds in the southwestern part of the survey area have been increasing independently of climatic conditions, whereas the ponds in the northeast have been steadily declining. My results underline the importance of accounting the spatial heterogeneity in environmental drivers, when working at large spatial scales. In light of my results, I also argue that assessing the impacts of climate change on wetland abundance in the spring, without more accurate climatic forecasting, will be difficult.

  13. Quantifying geographic variation in the climatic drivers of midcontinent wetlands with a spatially varying coefficient model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian Roy

    Full Text Available The wetlands in the Prairie Pothole Region and in the Great Plains are notorious for their sensitivity to weather variability. These wetlands have been the focus of considerable attention because of their ecological importance and because of the expected impact of climate change. Few models in the literature, however, take into account spatial variation in the importance of wetland drivers. This is surprising given the importance spatial heterogeneity in geomorphology and climatic conditions have in the region. In this paper, I use spatially-varying coefficients to assess the variation in ecological drivers in a number of ponds observed over a 50-year period (1961-2012. I included the number of ponds observed the year before on a log scale, the log of total precipitation, and mean maximum temperature during the four previous seasons as explanatory variables. I also included a temporal component to capture change in the number of ponds due to anthropogenic disturbance. Overall, fall and spring precipitation were most important in pond abundance in the west, whereas winter and summer precipitation were the most important drivers in the east. The ponds in the east of the survey area were also more dependent on pond abundance during the previous year than those in the west. Spring temperature during the previous season influenced pond abundance; while the temperature during the other seasons had a limited effect. The ponds in the southwestern part of the survey area have been increasing independently of climatic conditions, whereas the ponds in the northeast have been steadily declining. My results underline the importance of accounting the spatial heterogeneity in environmental drivers, when working at large spatial scales. In light of my results, I also argue that assessing the impacts of climate change on wetland abundance in the spring, without more accurate climatic forecasting, will be difficult.

  14. Long-term changes in abundances of Sonoran Desert lizards reveal complex responses to climatic variation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flesch, Aaron D; Rosen, Philip C; Holm, Peter

    2017-12-01

    Understanding how climatic variation affects animal populations and communities is essential for addressing threats posed by climate change, especially in systems where impacts are projected to be high. We evaluated abundance dynamics of five common species of diurnal lizards over 25 years in a Sonoran Desert transition zone where precipitation decreased and temperature increased across time, and assessed hypotheses for the influence of climatic flux on spatiotemporal variation in abundances. We repeatedly surveyed lizards in spring and summer of each year at up to 32 sites, and used hierarchical mixture models to estimate detection probabilities, abundances, and population growth rates. Among terrestrial species, abundances of a short-lived, winter-spring breeder increased markedly by an estimated 237%-285% across time, while two larger spring-summer breeders with higher thermal preferences declined by up to 64%. Abundances of two arboreal species that occupy shaded and thus sheltered microhabitats fluctuated but did not decline systematically. Abundances of all species increased with precipitation at short lag times (1-1.5 years) likely due to enhanced food availability, but often declined after periods of high precipitation at longer lag times (2-4 years) likely due to predation and other biotic pressures. Although rising maximum daily temperatures (T max ) are expected to drive global declines of lizards, associations with T max were variable and weak for most species. Instead, abundances of all species declined with rising daily minimum temperatures, suggesting degradation of cool refugia imposed widespread metabolic or other costs. Our results suggest climate warming and drying are having major impacts on lizard communities by driving declines in species with traits that augment exposure to abiotic extremes and by modifying species interactions. The complexity of patterns we report indicates that evaluating and responding to the influence of climate change

  15. Prediction of seasonal climate-induced variations in global food production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iizumi, Toshichika; Sakuma, Hirofumi; Yokozawa, Masayuki; Luo, Jing-Jia; Challinor, Andrew J.; Brown, Molly E.; Sakurai, Gen; Yamagata, Toshio

    2013-10-01

    Consumers, including the poor in many countries, are increasingly dependent on food imports and are thus exposed to variations in yields, production and export prices in the major food-producing regions of the world. National governments and commercial entities are therefore paying increased attention to the cropping forecasts of important food-exporting countries as well as to their own domestic food production. Given the increased volatility of food markets and the rising incidence of climatic extremes affecting food production, food price spikes may increase in prevalence in future years. Here we present a global assessment of the reliability of crop failure hindcasts for major crops at two lead times derived by linking ensemble seasonal climatic forecasts with statistical crop models. We found that moderate-to-marked yield loss over a substantial percentage (26-33%) of the harvested area of these crops is reliably predictable if climatic forecasts are near perfect. However, only rice and wheat production are reliably predictable at three months before the harvest using within-season hindcasts. The reliabilities of estimates varied substantially by crop--rice and wheat yields were the most predictable, followed by soybean and maize. The reasons for variation in the reliability of the estimates included the differences in crop sensitivity to the climate and the technology used by the crop-producing regions. Our findings reveal that the use of seasonal climatic forecasts to predict crop failures will be useful for monitoring global food production and will encourage the adaptation of food systems toclimatic extremes.

  16. Assessment of climate-driven variations in malaria incidence in Swaziland: toward malaria elimination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chuang, Ting-Wu; Soble, Adam; Ntshalintshali, Nyasatu; Mkhonta, Nomcebo; Seyama, Eric; Mthethwa, Steven; Pindolia, Deepa; Kunene, Simon

    2017-06-01

    Swaziland aims to eliminate malaria by 2020. However, imported cases from neighbouring endemic countries continue to sustain local parasite reservoirs and initiate transmission. As certain weather and climatic conditions may trigger or intensify malaria outbreaks, identification of areas prone to these conditions may aid decision-makers in deploying targeted malaria interventions more effectively. Malaria case-surveillance data for Swaziland were provided by Swaziland's National Malaria Control Programme. Climate data were derived from local weather stations and remote sensing images. Climate parameters and malaria cases between 2001 and 2015 were then analysed using seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average models and distributed lag non-linear models (DLNM). The incidence of malaria in Swaziland increased between 2005 and 2010, especially in the Lubombo and Hhohho regions. A time-series analysis indicated that warmer temperatures and higher precipitation in the Lubombo and Hhohho administrative regions are conducive to malaria transmission. DLNM showed that the risk of malaria increased in Lubombo when the maximum temperature was above 30 °C or monthly precipitation was above 5 in. In Hhohho, the minimum temperature remaining above 15 °C or precipitation being greater than 10 in. might be associated with malaria transmission. This study provides a preliminary assessment of the impact of short-term climate variations on malaria transmission in Swaziland. The geographic separation of imported and locally acquired malaria, as well as population behaviour, highlight the varying modes of transmission, part of which may be relevant to climate conditions. Thus, the impact of changing climate conditions should be noted as Swaziland moves toward malaria elimination.

  17. Climatic driving forces in inter-annual variation of global FPAR

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Dailiang; Liu, Liangyun; Yang, Xiaohua; Zhou, Bin

    2012-09-01

    Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FPAR) characterizes vegetation canopy functioning and its energy absorption capacity. In this paper, we focus on climatic driving forces in inter-annual variation of global FPAR from 1982 to 2006 by Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN-Monthly) data. Using FPAR-Simple Ratio Vegetation Index (SR) relationship, Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) was used to estimate FPAR at the global scale. The correlation between inter-annual variation of FPAR and temperature, precipitation derived from GHCN-Monthly was examined, during the periods of March-May (MAM), June-August (JJA), September-November (SON), and December-February (DJF) over from 1982 to 2006. The analysis of climatic influence on global FPAR revealed the significant correlation with temperature and precipitation in some meteorological stations area, and a more significant correlation with precipitation was found than which with temperature. Some stations in the regions between 30° N and 60° N and around 30° S in South America, where the annual FPAR variation showed a significant positive correlation with temperature (P forest of Africa and Amazon during the dry season of JJA and SON.

  18. Non-linear response of the Golo River system, Corsica, France, to Late Quaternary climatic and sea level variations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Forzoni, A.; Storms, J.E.A.; Reimann, T.; Moreau, J.; Jouet, G.

    2015-01-01

    Disentangling the impact of climatic and sea level variations on fluvio-deltaic stratigraphy is still an outstanding question in sedimentary geology and geomorphology. We used the Golo River system, Corsica, France, as a natural laboratory to investigate the impact of Late Quaternary climate and sea

  19. Climate vs. tectonic induced variations in Cenozoic sediment supply from western Scandinavia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gołędowski, Bartosz; Nielsen, S.B.; Clausen, O.R.

    Eocene times tectonic activity related to the final stage of opening of the North Atlantic was apparently controlling the sediment input in the North Sea as sediment pulses correlate well with tectonic events. Although there is no signs of Cenozoic tectonic activity onshore Scandinavia (igneous bodies......, faulting), tectonic disturbance related to ocean opening could be responsible for deposition of thick Paleocene wedges along the western coast of Norway. During subsequent Cenozoic periods domal structures in the Norwegian shelf are a proof for mild and protracted compression. However, depositional...... patterns from offshore Scandinavia have been interpreted as a result of significant tectonic movements. In the absence of proofs for active tectonic agents we attempt to explain these sediment input variations as a result of climate fluctuations. The Eocene-Oligocene greenhouse-icehouse climate transition...

  20. Interannual variations in length-of-day (LOD) as a tool to assess climate variability and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehmann, E.

    2016-12-01

    On interannual time scales the atmosphere affects significantly fluctuations in the geodetic quantity of length-of-day (LOD). This effect is directly proportional to perturbations in the relative angular momentum of the atmosphere (AAM) computed from zonal winds. During El Niño events tropospheric westerlies increase due to elevated sea surface temperatures (SST) in the Pacific inducing peak anomalies in relative AAM and correspondingly, in LOD. However, El Niño events affect LOD variations differently strong and the causes of this varying effect are yet not clear. Here, we investigate the LOD-El Niño relationship in the 20th and 21st century (1982-2100) whether the quantity of LOD can be used as a geophysical tool to assess variability and change in a future climate. In our analysis we applied a windowed discrete Fourier transform on all de-seasonalized data to remove climatic signals outside of the El Niño frequency band. LOD (data: IERS) was related in space and time to relative AAM and SSTs (data: ERA-40 reanalysis, IPCC ECHAM05-OM1 20C, A1B). Results from mapped Pearson correlation coefficients and time frequency behavior analysis identified a teleconnection pattern that we term the EN≥65%-index. The EN≥65%-index prescribes a significant change in variation in length-of-day of +65% and more related to (1) SST anomalies of >2° in the Pacific Niño region (160°E-80°W, 5°S-5°N), (2) corresponding stratospheric warming anomalies of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), and (3) strong westerly winds in the lower equatorial stratosphere. In our analysis we show that the coupled atmosphere-ocean conditions prescribed in the EN≥65%-index apply to the extreme El Niño events of 19982/83 and 1997/98, and to 75% of all El Niño events in the last third of the 21st century. At that period of time the EN≥65%-index describes a projected altered base state of the equatorial Pacific that shows almost continuous El Niño conditions under climate warming.

  1. Grasshopper community response to climatic change: variation along an elevational gradient.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nufio, César R; McGuire, Chris R; Bowers, M Deane; Guralnick, Robert P

    2010-09-23

    The impacts of climate change on phenological responses of species and communities are well-documented; however, many such studies are correlational and so less effective at assessing the causal links between changes in climate and changes in phenology. Using grasshopper communities found along an elevational gradient, we present an ideal system along the Front Range of Colorado USA that provides a mechanistic link between climate and phenology. This study utilizes past (1959-1960) and present (2006-2008) surveys of grasshopper communities and daily temperature records to quantify the relationship between amount and timing of warming across years and elevations, and grasshopper timing to adulthood. Grasshopper communities were surveyed at four sites, Chautauqua Mesa (1752 m), A1 (2195 m), B1 (2591 m), and C1 (3048 m), located in prairie, lower montane, upper montane, and subalpine life zones, respectively. Changes to earlier first appearance of adults depended on the degree to which a site warmed. The lowest site showed little warming and little phenological advancement. The next highest site (A1) warmed a small, but significant, amount and grasshopper species there showed inconsistent phenological advancements. The two highest sites warmed the most, and at these sites grasshoppers showed significant phenological advancements. At these sites, late-developing species showed the greatest advancements, a pattern that correlated with an increase in rate of late-season warming. The number of growing degree days (GDDs) associated with the time to adulthood for a species was unchanged across the past and present surveys, suggesting that phenological advancement depended on when a set number of GDDs is reached during a season. Our analyses provide clear evidence that variation in amount and timing of warming over the growing season explains the vast majority of phenological variation in this system. Our results move past simple correlation and provide a stronger process

  2. Grasshopper community response to climatic change: variation along an elevational gradient.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    César R Nufio

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available The impacts of climate change on phenological responses of species and communities are well-documented; however, many such studies are correlational and so less effective at assessing the causal links between changes in climate and changes in phenology. Using grasshopper communities found along an elevational gradient, we present an ideal system along the Front Range of Colorado USA that provides a mechanistic link between climate and phenology.This study utilizes past (1959-1960 and present (2006-2008 surveys of grasshopper communities and daily temperature records to quantify the relationship between amount and timing of warming across years and elevations, and grasshopper timing to adulthood. Grasshopper communities were surveyed at four sites, Chautauqua Mesa (1752 m, A1 (2195 m, B1 (2591 m, and C1 (3048 m, located in prairie, lower montane, upper montane, and subalpine life zones, respectively. Changes to earlier first appearance of adults depended on the degree to which a site warmed. The lowest site showed little warming and little phenological advancement. The next highest site (A1 warmed a small, but significant, amount and grasshopper species there showed inconsistent phenological advancements. The two highest sites warmed the most, and at these sites grasshoppers showed significant phenological advancements. At these sites, late-developing species showed the greatest advancements, a pattern that correlated with an increase in rate of late-season warming. The number of growing degree days (GDDs associated with the time to adulthood for a species was unchanged across the past and present surveys, suggesting that phenological advancement depended on when a set number of GDDs is reached during a season.Our analyses provide clear evidence that variation in amount and timing of warming over the growing season explains the vast majority of phenological variation in this system. Our results move past simple correlation and provide a stronger

  3. The response of big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata) to interannual climate variation changes across its range.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kleinhesselink, Andrew R; Adler, Peter B

    2018-05-01

    Understanding how annual climate variation affects population growth rates across a species' range may help us anticipate the effects of climate change on species distribution and abundance. We predict that populations in warmer or wetter parts of a species' range should respond negatively to periods of above average temperature or precipitation, respectively, whereas populations in colder or drier areas should respond positively to periods of above average temperature or precipitation. To test this, we estimated the population sensitivity of a common shrub species, big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata), to annual climate variation across its range. Our analysis includes 8,175 observations of year-to-year change in sagebrush cover or production from 131 monitoring sites in western North America. We coupled these observations with seasonal weather data for each site and analyzed the effects of spring through fall temperatures and fall through spring accumulated precipitation on annual changes in sagebrush abundance. Sensitivity to annual temperature variation supported our hypothesis: years with above average temperatures were beneficial to sagebrush in colder locations and detrimental to sagebrush in hotter locations. In contrast, sensitivity to precipitation did not change significantly across the distribution of sagebrush. This pattern of responses suggests that regional abundance of this species may be more limited by temperature than by precipitation. We also found important differences in how the ecologically distinct subspecies of sagebrush responded to the effects of precipitation and temperature. Our model predicts that a short-term temperature increase could produce an increase in sagebrush cover at the cold edge of its range and a decrease in cover at the warm edge of its range. This prediction is qualitatively consistent with predictions from species distribution models for sagebrush based on spatial occurrence data, but it provides new mechanistic

  4. Evaluating groundwater recharge variations under climate change in an endorheic basin of the Andean plateau

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blin, N.; Hausner, M. B.; Suarez, F. I.

    2017-12-01

    In arid and semi-arid regions, where surface water and precipitations are scarce, groundwater is the main source of drinking water that sustains human and natural ecosystems. Therefore, it is very important to consider the potential impacts of climate change that threaten the availability of this resource. The purpose of this study is to investigate the variations caused by climate change on the recharge of the regional groundwater aquifer at the Huasco salt flat, located in the Chilean Andean plateau. The Huasco salt flat basin has ecosystems sustained by wetlands that depend on the groundwater levels of this aquifer. Due to this reason, the Chilean government has declared this zone as protected. Hence, the assurance of the future availability of the groundwater resource becomes extremely important. The sustainable management of this resource requires reasonable estimates of recharge and evapotranspiration, which are highly dependent on the characteristics and processes occurring in the vadose zone, i.e., topography, soil type and land use, and their temporal and spatial variations are significant in arid regions. With this aim, a three-dimensional groundwater model, implemented in SWAT-MODFLOW, was developed to couple the saturated system with the vadose zone. The model was calibrated and validated using historic data. General circulation models (GCMs) were used as scenarios inputs of recharge to the groundwater model. Future simulations were run by applying an offset to the historic air temperatures and to the precipitation. These offsets were determined using a delta hybrid approach based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-model ensemble archive. The obtained results were downscaled to the 0.125º latitude x 0.125º longitude grid cell containing the basin of the Huasco salt flat. The hybrid approach considered the 10th, 50th and 90th percentiles of the projected temperature and precipitation output as three scenarios of climate

  5. Prediction of seasonal climate-induced variations in global food production

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Iizumi, Toshichika; Sakuma, Hirofumi; Yokozawa, Masayuki

    2013-01-01

    attention to the cropping forecasts of important food-exporting countries as well as to their own domestic food production. Given the increased volatility of food markets and the rising incidence of climatic extremes affecting food production, food price spikes may increase in prevalence in future years(2......Consumers, including the poor in many countries, are increasingly dependent on food imports(1) and are thus exposed to variations in yields, production and export prices in the major food-producing regions of the world. National governments and commercial entities are therefore paying increased...

  6. Lateral variations in vegetation in the Himalaya since the Miocene and implications for climate evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vögeli, Natalie; Najman, Yani; van der Beek, Peter; Huyghe, Pascale; Wynn, Peter M.; Govin, Gwladys; van der Veen, Iris; Sachse, Dirk

    2017-08-01

    The Himalaya has a major influence on global and regional climate, in particular on the Asian monsoon system. The foreland basin of the Himalaya contains a record of tectonics and paleoclimate since the Miocene. Previous work on the evolution of vegetation and climate has focused on the central and western Himalaya, where a shift from C3 to C4 vegetation has been observed at ∼7 Ma and linked to increased seasonality, but the climatic evolution of the eastern part of the orogen is less well understood. In order to track vegetation as a marker of monsoon intensity and seasonality, we analyzed δ13 C and δ18 O values of soil carbonate and associated δ13 C values of bulk organic carbon from previously dated sedimentary sections exposing the syn-orogenic detrital Dharamsala and Siwalik Groups in the west, and, for the first time, the Siwalik Group in the east of the Himalayan foreland basin. Sedimentary records span from 20 to 1 Myr in the west (Joginder Nagar, Jawalamukhi, and Haripur Kolar sections) and from 13 to 1 Myr in the east (Kameng section), respectively. The presence of soil carbonate in the west and its absence in the east is a first indication of long-term lateral climatic variation, as soil carbonate requires seasonally arid conditions to develop. δ13 C values in soil carbonate show a shift from around -10‰ to -2‰ at ∼7 Ma in the west, which is confirmed by δ13 C analyses on bulk organic carbon that show a shift from around -23‰ to -19‰ at the same time. Such a shift in isotopic values is likely to be associated with a change from C3 to C4 vegetation. In contrast, δ13 C values of bulk organic carbon remain at ∼ - 23 ‰ in the east. Thus, our data show that the current east-west variation in climate was established at 7 Ma. We propose that the regional change towards a more seasonal climate in the west is linked to a decrease of the influence of the Westerlies, delivering less winter precipitation to the western Himalaya, while the east

  7. Temporal and spatial variations in wildlife population fluctuations in Greenland; The effect of climate, environment and man

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Moshøj, Charlotte Margaret; Forchhammer, Mads C.; Forbes, Valery E.

    2009-01-01

    Temporal and spatial variations in wildlife population fluctuations in Greenland; The effect of climate, environment and man Moshøj, C.M, M.C.Forchhammer and V.E. Forbes Temporal and spatial variations in wildlife population fluctuations in Greenland; The effect of climate, environment and man...... and mammals display distinct population fluctuations of varying temporal and spatial scale. In Greenland, historical records, archaeological findings and oral accounts passed on from Inuit elders all document that the presence of wildlife species and their population sizes have undergone pronounced....... The results of this study will model future predictions of wildlife populations under changing climate variables and human hunting pressure....

  8. Satellite-derived SIF and CO2 Observations Show Coherent Responses to Interannual Climate Variations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butterfield, Z.; Hogikyan, A.; Kulawik, S. S.; Keppel-Aleks, G.

    2017-12-01

    Gross primary production (GPP) is the single largest carbon flux in the Earth system, but its sensitivity to changes in climate is subject to significant uncertainty. Satellite measurements of solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) offer insight into spatial and temporal patterns in GPP at a global scale and, combined with other satellite-derived datasets, provide unprecedented opportunity to explore interactions between atmospheric CO2, GPP, and climate variability. To explore potential drivers of GPP in the Northern Hemisphere (NH), we compare monthly-averaged SIF data from the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment 2 (GOME-2) with observed anomalies in temperature (T; CRU-TS), liquid water equivalent (LWE) from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR; CERES SYN1deg). Using observations from 2007 through 2015 for several NH regions, we calculate month-specific sensitivities of SIF to variability in T, LWE, and PAR. These sensitivities provide insight into the seasonal progression of how productivity is affected by climate variability and can be used to effectively model the observed SIF signal. In general, we find that high temperatures are beneficial to productivity in the spring, but detrimental in the summer. The influences of PAR and LWE are more heterogeneous between regions; for example, higher LWE in North American temperate forest leads to decreased springtime productivity, while exhibiting a contrasting effect in water-limited regions. Lastly, we assess the influence of variations in terrestrial productivity on atmospheric carbon using a new lower tropospheric CO2 product derived from the Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite (GOSAT). Together, these data shed light on the drivers of interannual variability in the annual cycle of NH atmospheric CO2, and may provide improved constraints on projections of long-term carbon cycle responses to climate change.

  9. Climate variables explain neutral and adaptive variation within salmonid metapopulations: The importance of replication in landscape genetics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hand, Brian K.; Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Wade, Alisa A.; Kovach, Ryan; Whited, Diane C.; Narum, Shawn R.; Matala, Andrew P.; Ackerman, Michael W.; Garner, B. A.; Kimball, John S; Stanford, Jack A.; Luikart, Gordon

    2016-01-01

    Understanding how environmental variation influences population genetic structure is important for conservation management because it can reveal how human stressors influence population connectivity, genetic diversity and persistence. We used riverscape genetics modelling to assess whether climatic and habitat variables were related to neutral and adaptive patterns of genetic differentiation (population-specific and pairwise FST) within five metapopulations (79 populations, 4583 individuals) of steelhead trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) in the Columbia River Basin, USA. Using 151 putatively neutral and 29 candidate adaptive SNP loci, we found that climate-related variables (winter precipitation, summer maximum temperature, winter highest 5% flow events and summer mean flow) best explained neutral and adaptive patterns of genetic differentiation within metapopulations, suggesting that climatic variation likely influences both demography (neutral variation) and local adaptation (adaptive variation). However, we did not observe consistent relationships between climate variables and FST across all metapopulations, underscoring the need for replication when extrapolating results from one scale to another (e.g. basin-wide to the metapopulation scale). Sensitivity analysis (leave-one-population-out) revealed consistent relationships between climate variables and FST within three metapopulations; however, these patterns were not consistent in two metapopulations likely due to small sample sizes (N = 10). These results provide correlative evidence that climatic variation has shaped the genetic structure of steelhead populations and highlight the need for replication and sensitivity analyses in land and riverscape genetics.

  10. Seasonal variations of Saanen goat milk composition and the impact of climatic conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kljajevic, Nemanja V; Tomasevic, Igor B; Miloradovic, Zorana N; Nedeljkovic, Aleksandar; Miocinovic, Jelena B; Jovanovic, Snezana T

    2018-01-01

    The aim of this research was to investigate the effect of climatic conditions and their impact on seasonal variations of physico-chemical characteristics of Saanen goat milk produced over a period of 4 years. Lactation period (early, mid and late) and year were considered as factors that influence physico-chemical composition of milk. Pearson's coefficient of correlation was calculated between the physico-chemical characteristics of milk (fat, proteins, lactose, non-fat dry matter, density, freezing point, pH, titrable acidity) and climatic condition parameters (air temperature, temperature humidity index-THI, solar radiation duration, relative humidity). Results showed that all physico-chemical characteristics of Saanen goat milk varied significantly throughout the lactation period and years. The decrease of fat, protein, non-fat dry matter and lactose content in goat milk during the mid-lactation period was more pronounced than was previously reported in the literature. The highest values for these characteristics were recorded in the late lactation period. Observed variations were explained by negative correlation between THI and the physico-chemical characteristics of Saanen goat milk. This indicated that Saanen goats were very prone to heat stress, which implied the decrease of physico-chemical characteristics during hot summers.

  11. Selecting sagebrush seed sources for restoration in a variable climate: ecophysiological variation among genotypes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Germino, Matthew J.

    2012-01-01

    Big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata) communities dominate a large fraction of the United States and provide critical habitat for a number of wildlife species of concern. Loss of big sagebrush due to fire followed by poor restoration success continues to reduce ecological potential of this ecosystem type, particularly in the Great Basin. Choice of appropriate seed sources for restoration efforts is currently unguided due to knowledge gaps on genetic variation and local adaptation as they relate to a changing landscape. We are assessing ecophysiological responses of big sagebrush to climate variation, comparing plants that germinated from ~20 geographically distinct populations of each of the three subspecies of big sagebrush. Seedlings were previously planted into common gardens by US Forest Service collaborators Drs. B. Richardson and N. Shaw, (USFS Rocky Mountain Research Station, Provo, Utah and Boise, Idaho) as part of the Great Basin Native Plant Selection and Increase Project. Seed sources spanned all states in the conterminous Western United States. Germination, establishment, growth and ecophysiological responses are being linked to genomics and foliar palatability. New information is being produced to aid choice of appropriate seed sources by Bureau of Land Management and USFS field offices when they are planning seed acquisitions for emergency post-fire rehabilitation projects while considering climate variability and wildlife needs.

  12. Exploring and Analyzing Climate Variations Online by Using NASA MERRA-2 Data at GES DISC

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Suhung; Ostrenga, Dana M.; Vollmer, Bruce E.; Kempler, Steven J.

    2016-01-01

    NASA Giovanni (Goddard Interactive Online Visualization ANd aNalysis Infrastructure) (http:giovanni.sci.gsfc.nasa.govgiovanni) is a web-based data visualization and analysis system developed by the Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC). Current data analysis functions include Lat-Lon map, time series, scatter plot, correlation map, difference, cross-section, vertical profile, and animation etc. The system enables basic statistical analysis and comparisons of multiple variables. This web-based tool facilitates data discovery, exploration and analysis of large amount of global and regional remote sensing and model data sets from a number of NASA data centers. Long term global assimilated atmospheric, land, and ocean data have been integrated into the system that enables quick exploration and analysis of climate data without downloading, preprocessing, and learning data. Example data include climate reanalysis data from NASA Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) which provides data beginning in 1980 to present; land data from NASA Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS), which assimilates data from 1948 to 2012; as well as ocean biological data from NASA Ocean Biogeochemical Model (NOBM), which provides data from 1998 to 2012. This presentation, using surface air temperature, precipitation, ozone, and aerosol, etc. from MERRA-2, demonstrates climate variation analysis with Giovanni at selected regions.

  13. Selection for earlier flowering crop associated with climatic variations in the Sahel.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yves Vigouroux

    Full Text Available Climate changes will have an impact on food production and will require costly adaptive responses. Adapting to a changing environment will be particularly challenging in sub-Saharan Africa where climate change is expected to have a major impact. However, one important phenomenon that is often overlooked and is poorly documented is the ability of agro-systems to rapidly adapt to environmental variations. Such an adaptation could proceed by the adoption of new varieties or by the adaptation of varieties to a changing environment. In this study, we analyzed these two processes in one of the driest agro-ecosystems in Africa, the Sahel. We performed a detailed study in Niger where pearl millet is the main crop and covers 65% of the cultivated area. To assess how the agro-system is responding to recent recurrent drought, we analyzed samples of pearl millet landraces collected in the same villages in 1976 and 2003 throughout the entire cultivated area of Niger. We studied phenological and morphological differences in the 1976 and 2003 collections by comparing them over three cropping seasons in a common garden experiment. We found no major changes in the main cultivated varieties or in their genetic diversity. However, we observed a significant shift in adaptive traits. Compared to the 1976 samples, samples collected in 2003 displayed a shorter lifecycle, and a reduction in plant and spike size. We also found that an early flowering allele at the PHYC locus increased in frequency between 1976 and 2003. The increase exceeded the effect of drift and sampling, suggesting a direct effect of selection for earliness on this gene. We conclude that recurrent drought can lead to selection for earlier flowering in a major Sahelian crop. Surprisingly, these results suggest that diffusion of crop varieties is not the main driver of short term adaptation to climatic variation.

  14. Effects of seasonal and climate variations on calves' thermal comfort and behaviour.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tripon, Iulian; Cziszter, Ludovic Toma; Bura, Marian; Sossidou, Evangelia N

    2014-09-01

    The aim of this study was to measure the effect of season and climate variations on thermal comfort and behaviour of 6-month-old dairy calves housed in a semi-opened shelter to develop animal-based indicators for assessing animal thermal comfort. The ultimate purpose was to further exploit the use of those indicators to prevent thermal stress by providing appropriate care to the animals. Measurements were taken for winter and summer seasons. Results showed that season significantly influenced (P ≤ 0.01) the lying down behaviour of calves by reducing the time spent lying, from 679.9 min in winter to 554.1 min in summer. Moreover, season had a significant influence (P ≤ 0.01) on feeding behaviour. In detail, the total length of feeding periods was shorter in winter, 442.1 min in comparison to 543.5 min in summer. Time spent drinking increased significantly (P ≤ 0.001), from 11.9 min in winter to 26.9 min in summer. Furthermore, season had a significant influence (P ≤ 0.001) on self grooming behaviour which was 5.5 times longer in duration in winter than in summer (1,336 s vs 244 s). It was concluded that calves' thermal comfort is affected by seasonal and climate variations and that this can be assessed by measuring behaviour with animal-based indicators, such as lying down, resting, standing up, feeding, rumination, drinking and self grooming. The indicators developed may be a useful tool to prevent animal thermal stress by providing appropriate housing and handling to calves under seasonal and climate challenge.

  15. [Spatial-temporal variations of spring maize potential yields in a changing climate in Northeast China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Zhi Juan; Yang, Xiao Guang; Lyu, Shuo; Wang, Jing; Lin, Xiao Mao

    2018-01-01

    Based on meteorological data, agro-meteorological observations, and agricultural statistical data in Northeast China (NEC), by using the validated Agricultural Production System sIMulator (APSIM-maize), the potential, attainable, potential farmers' and actual farmers' yields of spring maize during the period 1961 to 2015 were analyzed, and the effects of climate variation on maize potential yield in NEC were quantified. Results indicated that the potential yield of spring maize was 12.2 t·hm -2 during the period 1961 to 2015, with those in northeast being lower than southwest within the study region. The attainable yield of spring maize was 11.3 t·hm -2 , and showed a similar spatial distribution with potential yield. Under the current farmers' management practices, mean simulated potential and actual farmers' yields were 6.5 and 4.5 t·hm -2 , respectively. Assuming there were no changes in cultivars and management practices in NEC, the mean potential, attainable, and potential farmers' yields of spring maize would decrease by 0.34, 0.25 and 0.10 t·hm -2 per decade in NEC. However, the actual farmers' yields increased with the value of 1.27 t·hm -2 per decade averaged over NEC. Due to climate variation, year-to-year variations of spring maize potential, attainable, and potential farmers' yields were significant, ranging from 10.0 to 14.4, 9.8 to 13.3, 4.4 to 8.5 t·hm -2 , respectively.

  16. Correlations between the geomagnetic field variations, the fluctuations of the earth`s rotation and climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Greiner-Mai, H; Jochmann, H

    1995-03-01

    The amplitude spectra of global geophysical phenomena were investigated to motivate research of physical connections between them. The suggested causality was derived from comparison of the spectra, and from cross correlation functions. The following global parameters were discussed: For the earth rotation by the variations of the length of day, for the geomagnetic variation by the global field intensity, changes of the dipole axis and the westward drift, and for climate change by the atmospheric excitation function derived from air pressure variations, and temperature variations. The model of atmospheric excitation, which can be proved most exactly for the annual variations of length of day, is responsible for the 11 and 22 years periods, too. It failed for longer periods, e.g. partially for the 30 years periods and completely for the 60 to 80 years periods, which were also discovered in the mean temperature and geomagnetic field variations. Therefore, it was suggested that longer periods in climate change and in the variations of the earth`s rotation are caused independently by the same process in the earth core, provided that a physical influence of the geomagnetic field on climate will be accepted in future. The investigation was completed by comparison with the spectra of some local temperature variations in Europe. (orig.)

  17. Projection of heat waves variation over a warming climate in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yue, X.; Wu, S.; Pan, T.

    2016-12-01

    Heat waves (HW) have adverse impacts on economies, human health, societies and environment, which have been observed around the world and are expected to increase in a warming climate. However, the variations of HW under climate change over China are not clear yet. Using the HadGEM2-ES RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 daily maximum temperature and humidity dataset, variation of heat waves in China for 2021-2050 comparing to 1991-2000 as baseline were analyzed. The CMA-HI (Heat Index standardized by China Meteorological Administration) index was used to calculate the frequency and intensity of head waves. This paper classified the HW into three intensity levels including mild HW, moderate HW and severe HW , and defined a heat wave event (HWE) as that CMA-HI are all above or equal to 2.8 and keep at a intensity level more than five consecutive days. Results show that during 2021to 2050, the distribution area, frequency and duration of each intensity level have an increasing trend over China, and those of severe HW will increase mostly. The distribution area of mild, moderate and severe HW will increase 18%, 22%, 35% respectively. Average HWE frequency of each level will concentrate on 0.5-1instead of 0-0.3 in baseline period. Maximum frequency of each intensity can reach to almost 3 times a year. During 1991-2000, the average frequency of mild HW, moderate HW and severe HW kept a downward sequence. But it will change to increase in the future, and the shift occurs during 2031-2040. In addition, only severe HW duration will increase in the future. Its average value will increase from 9days to 13days, and keep a maximum duration of 42days.While the average duration of mild HW and moderate HW just keep almost 6 days and 8 days as usual. Regionally, both the frequency and duration will keep high value in the region of eastern China, central China, southern China and central Xinjiang autonomous region in the future. And only severe HW has a great change in distribution. Under RCP 8

  18. Sensitivity of the French Alps snow cover to the variation of climatic variables

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Martin

    Full Text Available In order to study the sensitivity of snow cover to changes in meteorological variables at a regional scale, a numerical snow model and an analysis system of the meteorological conditions adapted to relief were used. This approach has been successfully tested by comparing simulated and measured snow depth at 37 sites in the French Alps during a ten year data period. Then, the sensitivity of the snow cover to a variation in climatic conditions was tested by two different methods, which led to very similar results. To assess the impact of a particular "doubled CO2" scenario, coherent perturbations were introduced in the input data of the snow model. It was found that although the impact would be very pronounced, it would also be extremely differentiated, dependent on the internal state of the snow cover. The most sensitive areas are the elevations below 2400 m, especially in the southern part of the French Alps.

  19. From field to region yield predictions in response to pedo-climatic variations in Eastern Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    JÉGO, G.; Pattey, E.; Liu, J.

    2013-12-01

    The increase in global population coupled with new pressures to produce energy and bioproducts from agricultural land requires an increase in crop productivity. However, the influence of climate and soil variations on crop production and environmental performance is not fully understood and accounted for to define more sustainable and economical management strategies. Regional crop modeling can be a great tool for understanding the impact of climate variations on crop production, for planning grain handling and for assessing the impact of agriculture on the environment, but it is often limited by the availability of input data. The STICS ("Simulateur mulTIdisciplinaire pour les Cultures Standard") crop model, developed by INRA (France) is a functional crop model which has a built-in module to optimize several input parameters by minimizing the difference between calculated and measured output variables, such as Leaf Area Index (LAI). STICS crop model was adapted to the short growing season of the Mixedwood Plains Ecozone using field experiments results, to predict biomass and yield of soybean, spring wheat and corn. To minimize the numbers of inference required for regional applications, 'generic' cultivars rather than specific ones have been calibrated in STICS. After the calibration of several model parameters, the root mean square error (RMSE) of yield and biomass predictions ranged from 10% to 30% for the three crops. A bit more scattering was obtained for LAI (20%climate variations. Using RS data to re-initialize input parameters that are not readily available (e.g. seeding date) is considered an effective way

  20. Local climate and cultivation, but not ploidy, predict functional trait variation in Bouteloua gracilis (Poaceae)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butterfield, Bradley J.; Wood, Troy E.

    2015-01-01

    Efforts to improve the diversity of seed 18 resources for important restoration species has become a high priority for land managers in many parts of the world. Relationships between functional trait values and the environment from which seed sources are collected can provide important insights into patterns of local adaptation and guidelines for seed transfer. However, little is known about which functional traits exhibit genetic differentiation across populations of restoration species and thus may contribute to local adaptation. Here, we report the results of a common garden experiment aimed at assessing genetic (including ploidy level) and environmental regulation of several functional traits among populations of Bouteloua gracilis, a dominant C4 grass and the most highly utilized restoration species across much of the Colorado Plateau. We found that leaf size and specific leaf area (SLA) varied significantly among populations, and were strongly correlated with the source population environment from which seeds were collected. However, variation in ploidy level had no significant effect on functional traits. Leaves of plants grown from commercial seed releases were significantly larger and had lower SLA than those from natural populations, a result that is concordant with the overall relation between climate and these two functional traits. We suggest that the patterns of functional trait variation shown here may extend to other grass species in the western USA, and may serve as useful proxies for more extensive genecology research. Furthermore, we argue that care should be taken to develop commercial seed lines with functional trait values that match those of natural populations occupying climates similar to target restoration sites.

  1. Effects of hurricanes and climate oscillations on annual variation in reproduction in wet forest, Puerto Rico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zimmerman, Jess K; Hogan, James Aaron; Nytch, Christopher J; Bithorn, John E

    2018-06-01

    Interannual changes in global climate and weather disturbances may influence reproduction in tropical forests. Phenomena such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are known to produce interannual variation in reproduction, as do severe storms such as hurricanes. Using stationary trap-based phenology data collected fortnightly from 1993 to 2014 from a hurricane-affected (1989 Hugo, 1998 Georges) subtropical wet forest in northeastern Puerto Rico, we conducted a time series analysis of flowering and seed production. We addressed (1) the degree to which interannual variation in flower and seed production was influenced by global climate drivers and time since hurricane disturbance, and (2) how long-term trends in reproduction varied with plant lifeform. The seasonally de-trended number of species in flower fluctuated over time while the number of species producing seed exhibited a declining trend, one that was particularly evident during the second half of the study period. Lagged El Niño indices and time series hurricane disturbance jointly influenced the trends in numbers of flowering and fruiting species, suggesting complex global influences on tropical forest reproduction with variable periodicities. Lag times affecting flowering tended to be longer than those affecting fruiting. Long-term patterns of reproduction in individual lifeforms paralleled the community-wide patterns, with most groups of lifeform exhibiting a long-term decline in seed but not flower production. Exceptions were found for hemiepiphytes, small trees, and lianas whose seed reproduction increased and then declined over time. There was no long-term increase in flower production as reported in other Neotropical sites. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

  2. Variations in Modeled Dengue Transmission over Puerto Rico Using a Climate Driven Dynamic Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morin, Cory; Monaghan, Andrew; Crosson, William; Quattrochi, Dale; Luvall, Jeffrey

    2014-01-01

    Dengue fever is a mosquito-borne viral disease reemerging throughout much of the tropical Americas. Dengue virus transmission is explicitly influenced by climate and the environment through its primary vector, Aedes aegypti. Temperature regulates Ae. aegypti development, survival, and replication rates as well as the incubation period of the virus within the mosquito. Precipitation provides water for many of the preferred breeding habitats of the mosquito, including buckets, old tires, and other places water can collect. Because of variations in topography, ocean influences and atmospheric processes, temperature and rainfall patterns vary across Puerto Rico and so do dengue virus transmission rates. Using NASA's TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) satellite for precipitation input, ground-based observations for temperature input, and laboratory confirmed dengue cases reported by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for parameter calibration, we modeled dengue transmission at the county level across Puerto Rico from 2010-2013 using a dynamic dengue transmission model that includes interacting vector ecology and epidemiological components. Employing a Monte Carlo approach, we performed ensembles of several thousands of model simulations for each county in order to resolve the model uncertainty arising from using different combinations of parameter values that are not well known. The top 1% of model simulations that best reproduced the reported dengue case data were then analyzed to determine the most important parameters for dengue virus transmission in each county, as well as the relative influence of climate variability on transmission. These results can be used by public health workers to implement dengue control methods that are targeted for specific locations and climate conditions.

  3. Climatic variation and tortoise survival: has a desert species met its match?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lovich, Jeffrey E.; Yackulic, Charles B.; Freilich, Jerry; Agha, Mickey; Austin, Meaghan; Meyer, Katherine P.; Arundel, Terence R.; Hansen, Jered; Vamstad, Michael S.; Root, Stephanie A.

    2014-01-01

    While demographic changes in short-lived species may be observed relatively quickly in response to climate changes, measuring population responses of long-lived species requires long-term studies that are not always available. We analyzed data from a population of threatened Agassiz’s desert tortoises (Gopherus agassizii) at a 2.59 km2 study plot in the Sonoran Desert ecosystem of Joshua Tree National Park, California, USA from 1978 to 2012 to examine variation in apparent survival and demography in this long-lived species. Transect-based, mark-recapture surveys were conducted in 10 of those years to locate living and dead tortoises. Previous modeling suggested that this area would become unsuitable as tortoise habitat under a warming and drying climate scenario. Estimated adult population size declined greatly from 1996 to 2012. The population appeared to have high apparent survival from 1978 to 1996 but apparent survival decreased from 1997 to 2002, concurrent with persistent drought. The best model relating apparent survivorship of tortoises ≥18 cm over time was based on a three year moving average of estimated winter precipitation. The postures and positions of a majority of dead tortoises found in 2012 were consistent with death by dehydration and starvation. Some live and many dead tortoises found in 2012 showed signs of predation or scavenging by mammalian carnivores. Coyote (Canis latrans) scats and other evidence from the site confirmed their role as tortoise predators and scavengers. Predation rates may be exacerbated by drought if carnivores switch from preferred mammalian prey to tortoises during dry years. Climate modeling suggests that the region will be subjected to even longer duration droughts in the future and that the plot may become unsuitable for continued tortoise survival. Our results showing wide fluctuations in apparent survival and decreasing tortoise density over time may be early signals of that possible outcome.

  4. Catchment chemostasis revisited: water quality responds differently to variations in weather and climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Godsey, Sarah; Kirchner, James

    2017-04-01

    Solute concentrations in streamflow typically vary systematically with stream discharge, and the resulting concentration-discharge relationships are important signatures of catchment (bio)geochemical processes. Solutes derived from mineral weathering often exhibit decreasing concentrations with increasing flows, suggesting dilution of a kinetically limited weathering flux by a variable flux of water. However, Godsey et al. (2009) showed that concentration-discharge relationships of weathering-derived solutes in 59 headwater catchments were much flatter than this simple dilution model would predict. Instead, their analysis showed that these catchments behaved almost like chemostats, with rates of solute production and/or mobilization that were nearly proportional to water fluxes, on both event and inter-annual time scales. Here we re-examine these findings using data from roughly 1000 catchments, ranging from ˜10 to >1,000,000 km2 in drainage area, and spanning a wide range of lithologic and climatic settings. Concentration-discharge relationships among this much larger set of much larger catchments are broadly consistent with the chemostatic behavior described by Godsey et al. (2009). Among these same catchments, however, site-to-site variations in mean concentrations are strongly (negatively) correlated with long-term average precipitation and discharge, suggesting strong dilution of stream concentrations under long-term leaching of the critical zone. The picture that emerges is one in which, on event and inter-annual time scales, stream solute concentrations are chemostatically buffered by groundwater storage and fast chemical reactions (such as ion exchange), but on much longer time scales, the catchment's chemostatic "set point" is determined by climatically driven critical zone evolution. Examples illustrating the different influences of (short-term) weather and (long-term) climate on water quality will be presented, and their implications will be discussed

  5. Local climate determines intra- and interspecific variation in sexual size dimorphism in mountain grasshopper communities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laiolo, P; Illera, J C; Obeso, J R

    2013-10-01

    The climate is often evoked to explain broad-scale clines of body size, yet its involvement in the processes that generate size inequality in the two sexes (sexual size dimorphism) remains elusive. Here, we analyse climatic clines of sexual size dimorphism along a wide elevation gradient (i) among grasshopper species in a phylogenetically controlled scenario and (ii) within species differing in distribution and cold tolerance, to highlight patterns generated at different time scales, mainly evolutionary (among species or higher taxa) and ontogenetic or microevolutionary (within species). At the interspecific level, grasshoppers were slightly smaller and less dimorphic at high elevations. These clines were associated with gradients of precipitation and sun exposure, which are likely indicators of other factors that directly exert selective pressures, such as resource availability and conditions for effective thermoregulation. Within species, we found a positive effect of temperature and a negative effect of elevation on body size, especially on condition-dependent measures of body size (total body length rather than hind femur length) and in species inhabiting the highest elevations. In spite of a certain degree of species-specific variation, females tended to adjust their body size more often than males, suggesting that body size in females can evolve faster among species and can be more plastic or dependent on nutritional conditions within species living in adverse climates. Natural selection on female body size may therefore prevail over sexual selection on male body size in alpine environments, and abiotic factors may trigger consistent phenotypic patterns across taxonomic scales. © 2013 The Authors. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2013 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

  6. An Analytic Equation Partitioning Climate Variation and Human Impacts on River Sediment Load

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, J.; Gao, G.; Fu, B.

    2017-12-01

    Spatial or temporal patterns and process-based equations could co-exist in hydrologic model. Yet, existing approaches quantifying the impacts of those variables on river sediment load (RSL) changes are found to be severely limited, and new ways to evaluate the contribution of these variables are thus needed. Actually, the Newtonian modeling is hardly achievable for this process due to the limitation of both observations and knowledge of mechanisms, whereas laws based on the Darwinian approach could provide one component of a developed hydrologic model. Since that streamflow is the carrier of suspended sediment, sediment load changes are documented in changes of streamflow and suspended sediment concentration (SSC) - water discharge relationships. Consequently, an analytic equation for river sediment load changes are proposed to explicitly quantify the relative contributions of climate variation and direct human impacts on river sediment load changes. Initially, the sediment rating curve, which is of great significance in RSL changes analysis, was decomposed as probability distribution of streamflow and the corresponding SSC - water discharge relationships at equally spaced discharge classes. Furthermore, a proposed segmentation algorithm based on the fractal theory was used to decompose RSL changes attributed to these two portions. Additionally, the water balance framework was utilized and the corresponding elastic parameters were calculated. Finally, changes in climate variables (i.e. precipitation and potential evapotranspiration) and direct human impacts on river sediment load could be figured out. By data simulation, the efficiency of the segmentation algorithm was verified. The analytic equation provides a superior Darwinian approach partitioning climate and human impacts on RSL changes, as only data series of precipitation, potential evapotranspiration and SSC - water discharge are demanded.

  7. Modeling Soil Organic Carbon Variation Along Climatic and Topographic Trajectories in the Central Andes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gavilan, C.; Grunwald, S.; Quiroz, R.; Zhu, L.

    2015-12-01

    The Andes represent the largest and highest mountain range in the tropics. Geological and climatic differentiation favored landscape and soil diversity, resulting in ecosystems adapted to very different climatic patterns. Although several studies support the fact that the Andes are a vast sink of soil organic carbon (SOC) only few have quantified this variable in situ. Estimating the spatial distribution of SOC stocks in data-poor and/or poorly accessible areas, like the Andean region, is challenging due to the lack of recent soil data at high spatial resolution and the wide range of coexistent ecosystems. Thus, the sampling strategy is vital in order to ensure the whole range of environmental covariates (EC) controlling SOC dynamics is represented. This approach allows grasping the variability of the area, which leads to more efficient statistical estimates and improves the modeling process. The objectives of this study were to i) characterize and model the spatial distribution of SOC stocks in the Central Andean region using soil-landscape modeling techniques, and to ii) validate and evaluate the model for predicting SOC content in the area. For that purpose, three representative study areas were identified and a suite of variables including elevation, mean annual temperature, annual precipitation and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), among others, was selected as EC. A stratified random sampling (namely conditioned Latin Hypercube) was implemented and a total of 400 sampling locations were identified. At all sites, four composite topsoil samples (0-30 cm) were collected within a 2 m radius. SOC content was measured using dry combustion and SOC stocks were estimated using bulk density measurements. Regression Kriging was used to map the spatial variation of SOC stocks. The accuracy, fit and bias of SOC models was assessed using a rigorous validation assessment. This study produced the first comprehensive, geospatial SOC stock assessment in this

  8. Climatic and geographic predictors of life history variation in Eastern Massasauga (Sistrurus catenatus: A range-wide synthesis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eric T Hileman

    Full Text Available Elucidating how life history traits vary geographically is important to understanding variation in population dynamics. Because many aspects of ectotherm life history are climate-dependent, geographic variation in climate is expected to have a large impact on population dynamics through effects on annual survival, body size, growth rate, age at first reproduction, size-fecundity relationship, and reproductive frequency. The Eastern Massasauga (Sistrurus catenatus is a small, imperiled North American rattlesnake with a distribution centered on the Great Lakes region, where lake effects strongly influence local conditions. To address Eastern Massasauga life history data gaps, we compiled data from 47 study sites representing 38 counties across the range. We used multimodel inference and general linear models with geographic coordinates and annual climate normals as explanatory variables to clarify patterns of variation in life history traits. We found strong evidence for geographic variation in six of nine life history variables. Adult female snout-vent length and neonate mass increased with increasing mean annual precipitation. Litter size decreased with increasing mean temperature, and the size-fecundity relationship and growth prior to first hibernation both increased with increasing latitude. The proportion of gravid females also increased with increasing latitude, but this relationship may be the result of geographically varying detection bias. Our results provide insights into ectotherm life history variation and fill critical data gaps, which will inform Eastern Massasauga conservation efforts by improving biological realism for models of population viability and climate change.

  9. Variability of tropical cyclone rapid intensification in the North Atlantic and its relationship with climate variations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Chunzai; Wang, Xidong; Weisberg, Robert H.; Black, Michael L.

    2017-12-01

    The paper uses observational data from 1950 to 2014 to investigate rapid intensification (RI) variability of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the North Atlantic and its relationships with large-scale climate variations. RI is defined as a TC intensity increase of at least 15.4 m/s (30 knots) in 24 h. The seasonal RI distribution follows the seasonal TC distribution, with the highest number in September. Although an RI event can occur anywhere over the tropical North Atlantic (TNA), there are three regions of maximum RI occurrence: (1) the western TNA of 12°N-18°N and 60°W-45°W, (2) the Gulf of Mexico and the western Caribbean Sea, and (3) the open ocean southeast and east of Florida. RI events also show a minimum value in the eastern Caribbean Sea north of South America—a place called a hurricane graveyard due to atmospheric divergence and subsidence. On longer time scales, RI displays both interannual and multidecadal variability, but RI does not show a long-term trend due to global warming. The top three climate indices showing high correlations with RI are the June-November ENSO and Atlantic warm pool indices, and the January-March North Atlantic oscillation index. It is found that variabilities of vertical wind shear and TC heat potential are important for TC RI in the hurricane main development region, whereas relative humidity at 500 hPa is the main factor responsible for TC RI in the eastern TNA. However, the large-scale oceanic and atmospheric variables analyzed in this study do not show an important role in TC RI in the Gulf of Mexico and the open ocean southeast and east of Florida. This suggests that other factors such as small-scale changes of oceanic and atmospheric variables or TC internal processes may be responsible for TC RI in these two regions. Additionally, the analyses indicate that large-scale atmospheric and oceanic variables are not critical to TC genesis and formation; however, once a tropical depression forms, large-scale climate

  10. Analysis of hydrologic variation under climate change environment in southern Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yung-Chau; Chen, Yu-Chin; Chen, Wen-Fu

    2014-05-01

    Impact and adaptation is an important issue in response to climate change. We need to know the affections of climate change on hydrologic characteristics before estimating the impacts and making adaptation strategies of concerned area. The wet and dry seasons of southern Taiwan are significant. In addition, the amount of average annual rainfall is about 2,100mm in southern Taiwan. Most of rainfalls happen in wet season and are caused by cyclones (typhoons) or thunderstorms in wet season. It implies that both quantity and intensity of rainfall are large in wet season, while they are small in dry season. Corresponding to the phenomena, the possibility of flood in wet season and draught in dry season is high. This means significant hydrologic variations may cause disasters. The purpose of this study is to analyze hydrologic variation due to recent climate changes in southern Taiwan, and provide decision makers some information to understand possible impacts and make adaptation strategies. Before typhoon Morakot hit Taiwan, southern Taiwan was suffering from aridity. As usual, people were expecting the rainfall accompanied with typhoons will resolve the drought in this area. However, it fell down huge amount of water within a short period of time and the rain became a big disaster in this area. The rainfall is an over 200-year event, a record breaker. The data used in this research is based on the records of Taiwan Central Weather Bureau at Chiayi, Tainan, Kaohsiung, and Hengchun station, respectively. The trends of temperature, amount of rainfall, and number of rainy days are examined. Both Mann-Kendall trend test and linear regression method are chosen as the means to do trend examination.The results show that annual mean temperatures at Chiayi, Tainan, Kaohsiung, and Hengchun have raised 0.5~0.9°C during past decades under the impact of global warming. The amount of annual rainfall does not appear statistically significant trend. However, the number of annual rainy

  11. Regional carbon cycle responses to 25 years of variation in climate and disturbance in the US Pacific Northwest

    Science.gov (United States)

    David P. Turner; William D. Ritts; Robert E. Kennedy; Andrew N. Gray; Zhiqiang Yang

    2016-01-01

    Variation in climate, disturbance regime, and forest management strongly influence terrestrial carbon sources and sinks. Spatially distributed, process-based, carbon cycle simulation models provide a means to integrate information on these various influences to estimate carbon pools and flux over large domains. Here we apply the Biome-BGC model over the four-state...

  12. Species-specific growth responses to climate variations in understory trees of a Central African rain forest

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Couralet, C.; Sterck, F.J.; Sass-Klaassen, U.; Acker, Van J.; Beekman, H.

    2010-01-01

    Basic knowledge of the relationships between tree growth and environmental variables is crucial for understanding forest dynamics and predicting vegetation responses to climate variations. Trees growing in tropical areas with a clear seasonality in rainfall often form annual growth rings. In the

  13. Comparison of Regression Techniques to Predict Response of Oilseed Rape Yield to Variation in Climatic Conditions in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sharif, Behzad; Makowski, David; Plauborg, Finn

    2017-01-01

    Statistical regression models represent alternatives to process-based dynamic models for predicting the response of crop yields to variation in climatic conditions. Regression models can be used to quantify the effect of change in temperature and precipitation on yields. However, it is difficult ...

  14. Mapping the Decadal Spatio-temporal Variation of Social Vulnerability to Hydro-climatic Extremes over India

    Science.gov (United States)

    H, V.; Karmakar, S.; Ghosh, S.

    2015-12-01

    Human induced global warming is unequivocal and observational studies shows that, this has led to increase in the intensity and frequency of hydro-climatic extremes, most importantly precipitation extreme, heat waves and drought; and also is expected to be increased in the future. The occurrence of these extremes have a devastating effects on nation's economy and on societal well-being. Previous studies on India provided the evidences of significant changes in the precipitation extreme from pre- to post-1950, with huge spatial heterogeneity; and projections of heat waves indicated that significant part of India will experience heat stress conditions in the future. Under these circumstance, it is necessary to develop a nation-wide social vulnerability map to scrutinize the adequacy of existing emergency management. Yet there has been no systematic past efforts on mapping social vulnerability to hydro-climatic extremes at nation-wide for India. Therefore, immediate efforts are required to quantify the social vulnerability, particularly developing country like India, where major transformations in demographic characteristics and development patterns are evident during past decades. In the present study, we perform a comprehensive spatio-temporal social vulnerability analysis by considering multiple sensitive indicators for three decades (1990-2010) which identifies the hot-spots, with higher vulnerability to hydro-climatic extremes. The population datasets are procured from Census of India and the meteorological datasets are obtained from India Meteorological Department (IMD). The study derives interesting results on decadal changes of spatial distribution of risk, considering social vulnerability and hazard to extremes.

  15. Effects of a Changing Climate on Seasonal Variation in Natural Recharge of Unconfined Coastal Aquifers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antonellini, Marco; Nella Mollema, Pauline

    2013-04-01

    Irregular rainfall patterns throughout the year result in the discontinuous natural recharge of coastal aquifers, which has an effect on the size of freshwater lenses present in sandy deposits. The thickness of the freshwater lenses is important in the context of farmland salinization and coastal ecosystems survival. This study presents numerical models that simulate continuous and discontinuous recharge in sandy coastal aquifers and the thickness of resulting fresh water lenses under current and future climate scenarios. Temperature data for the period 1960-1990 from LOCCLIM FAO and from the IPCC SRES A1b scenario for 2070-2100, have been used to calculate the potential evapotranspiration. Potential recharge was defined as the difference between the precipitation and potential evapotranspiration in twelve locations around the world: Ameland (The Netherlands), Auckland and Wellington (New Zealand), Hong Kong, Ravenna (Italy), Mekong (Vietnam), Mumbai (India), New Jersey (USA), Nile Delta (Egypt), Kobe and Tokyo (Japan), and Singapore. These locations have shallow coastal aquifers along low lying coasts and comparable aquifer structure, which is the result of similar sediment supply and deposition in the Holocene as well as by the sea level changes from the last ice age to the present time. Particular attention has been paid to temporal variations of natural recharge that can vary from continuous recharge throughout the year to discontinuous recharge. The most dramatic reduction in the magnitude of potential annual recharge by the end of this century will occur at lower latitudes (Mumbai, Singapore, Hong Kong and Mekong). The most pronounced change in length of the dry period occurs for Kobe (Japan) and Singapore even though the total annual amount of recharge remains practically the same. The Influence of variable recharge on the size of freshwater lenses surrounded by saline water is simulated with the SEAWAT model. Models where the recharge is applied

  16. Interannual variation of carbon fluxes from three contrasting evergreen forests: the role of forest dynamics and climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sierra, Carlos A; Loescher, Henry W; Harmon, Mark E; Richardson, Andrew D; Hollinger, David Y; Perakis, Steven S

    2009-10-01

    Interannual variation of carbon fluxes can be attributed to a number of biotic and abiotic controls that operate at different spatial and temporal scales. Type and frequency of disturbance, forest dynamics, and climate regimes are important sources of variability. Assessing the variability of carbon fluxes from these specific sources can enhance the interpretation of past and current observations. Being able to separate the variability caused by forest dynamics from that induced by climate will also give us the ability to determine if the current observed carbon fluxes are within an expected range or whether the ecosystem is undergoing unexpected change. Sources of interannual variation in ecosystem carbon fluxes from three evergreen ecosystems, a tropical, a temperate coniferous, and a boreal forest, were explored using the simulation model STANDCARB. We identified key processes that introduced variation in annual fluxes, but their relative importance differed among the ecosystems studied. In the tropical site, intrinsic forest dynamics contributed approximately 30% of the total variation in annual carbon fluxes. In the temperate and boreal sites, where many forest processes occur over longer temporal scales than those at the tropical site, climate controlled more of the variation among annual fluxes. These results suggest that climate-related variability affects the rates of carbon exchange differently among sites. Simulations in which temperature, precipitation, and radiation varied from year to year (based on historical records of climate variation) had less net carbon stores than simulations in which these variables were held constant (based on historical records of monthly average climate), a result caused by the functional relationship between temperature and respiration. This suggests that, under a more variable temperature regime, large respiratory pulses may become more frequent and high enough to cause a reduction in ecosystem carbon stores. Our results

  17. Interannual variation of carbon fluxes from three contrasting evergreen forests: The role of forest dynamics and climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sierra, C.A.; Loescher, H.W.; Harmon, M.E.; Richardson, A.D.; Hollinger, D.Y.; Perakis, S.S.

    2009-01-01

    Interannual variation of carbon fluxes can be attributed to a number of biotic and abiotic controls that operate at different spatial and temporal scales. Type and frequency of disturbance, forest dynamics, and climate regimes are important sources of variability. Assessing the variability of carbon fluxes from these specific sources can enhance the interpretation of past and current observations. Being able to separate the variability caused by forest dynamics from that induced by climate will also give us the ability to determine if the current observed carbon fluxes are within an expected range or whether the ecosystem is undergoing unexpected change. Sources of interannual variation in ecosystem carbon fluxes from three evergreen ecosystems, a tropical, a temperate coniferous, and a boreal forest, were explored using the simulation model STANDCARB. We identified key processes that introduced variation in annual fluxes, but their relative importance differed among the ecosystems studied. In the tropical site, intrinsic forest dynamics contributed ?? 30% of the total variation in annual carbon fluxes. In the temperate and boreal sites, where many forest processes occur over longer temporal scales than those at the tropical site, climate controlled more of the variation among annual fluxes. These results suggest that climate-related variability affects the rates of carbon exchange differently among sites. Simulations in which temperature, precipitation, and radiation varied from year to year (based on historical records of climate variation) had less net carbon stores than simulations in which these variables were held constant (based on historical records of monthly average climate), a result caused by the functional relationship between temperature and respiration. This suggests that, under a more variable temperature regime, large respiratory pulses may become more frequent and high enough to cause a reduction in ecosystem carbon stores. Our results also show

  18. Spatiotemporal Variations of Extreme Precipitation under a Changing Climate in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area (TGRA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mingquan Lü

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The Three Gorges Dam (TGD is one of the largest hydroelectric projects in the world. Monitoring the spatiotemporal distribution of extreme precipitation offers valuable information for adaptation and mitigation strategies and reservoir management schemes. This study examined variations in extreme precipitation over the Three Gorges Reservoir area (TGRA in China to investigate the potential role of climate warming and Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR. The trends in extreme precipitation over the TGRA were investigated using the iterative-based Mann–Kendall (MK test and Sen’s slope estimator, based on weather station daily data series and TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission data series. The mean and density distribution of extreme precipitation indices between pre-dam and post-dam, pre-1985 and post-1985, and near and distant reservoir area were assessed by the Mann–Whitney test and the Kolmogorov–Smirnov test. The ratio of extreme precipitation to non-extreme precipitation became larger. The precipitation was characterized by increases in heavy precipitation as well as decreases in light and moderate rain. Comparing extreme precipitation indices between pre-1985 (cooling and post-1985 (warming indicated extreme precipitation has changed to become heavier. Under climate warming, the precipitation amount corresponding to more than the 95th percentile increased at the rate of 6.48%/°C. Results from comparing extreme precipitation for the pre- and post-dam, near reservoir area (NRA and away from the reservoir area (ARA imply an insignificant role of the TGR on rainfall extremes over the TGRA. Moreover, the impoundment of TGR did not exert detectable impacts on the surface relative humidity (RH and water vapor pressure (WP.

  19. Effects of climate variability and functional changes on the interannual variation of the carbon balance in a temperate deciduous forest

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wu, Jian; van der Linden, Leon; Lasslop, G.

    2012-01-01

    scale, direct climatic variability and changes in ecosystem functional properties regulated the IAV of the carbon balance at this site. Correlation analysis showed that the sensitivity of carbon fluxes to climatic variability was significantly higher at shorter than at longer time scales and changed...... seasonally. Ecosystem response anomalies implied that changes in the distribution of climate anomalies during the vegetation period will have stronger impacts on future ecosystem carbon balances than changes in average climate. We improved a published modelling approach which distinguishes the direct....... At the annual time scale as much as 80% of the IAV in NEE was attributed to the variation in photosynthesis and respiration related model parameters. Our results suggest that the observed decadal NEE trend at the investigated site was dominated by changes in ecosystem functioning. In general this study showed...

  20. Is climate change human induced? | Misra | African Journal of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    African Journal of Environmental Science and Technology. Journal Home · ABOUT THIS JOURNAL · Advanced Search · Current Issue · Archives · Journal Home > Vol 9, No 2 (2015) >. Log in or Register to get access to full text downloads. Username, Password, Remember me, or Register · Download this PDF file. The PDF ...

  1. Coefficient of variation for use in crop area classification across multiple climates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whelen, Tracy; Siqueira, Paul

    2018-05-01

    In this study, the coefficient of variation (CV) is introduced as a unitless statistical measurement for the classification of croplands using synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data. As a measurement of change, the CV is able to capture changing backscatter responses caused by cycles of planting, growing, and harvesting, and thus is able to differentiate these areas from a more static forest or urban area. Pixels with CV values above a given threshold are classified as crops, and below the threshold are non-crops. This paper uses cross-polarized L-band SAR data from the ALOS PALSAR satellite to classify eleven regions across the United States, covering a wide range of major crops and climates. Two separate sets of classification were done, with the first targeting the optimum classification thresholds for each dataset, and the second using a generalized threshold for all datasets to simulate a large-scale operationalized situation. Overall accuracies for the first phase of classification ranged from 66%-81%, and 62%-84% for the second phase. Visual inspection of the results shows numerous possibilities for improving the classifications while still using the same classification method, including increasing the number and temporal frequency of input images in order to better capture phenological events and mitigate the effects of major precipitation events, as well as more accurate ground truth data. These improvements would make the CV method a viable tool for monitoring agriculture throughout the year on a global scale.

  2. [Spatiotemporal variations of natural wetland CH4 emissions over China under future climate change].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Jian-gong; Zhu, Qiu-an; Shen, Yan; Yang, Yan-zheng; Luo, Yun-peng; Peng, Chang-hui

    2015-11-01

    Based on a new process-based model, TRIPLEX-GHG, this paper analyzed the spatio-temporal variations of natural wetland CH4 emissions over China under different future climate change scenarios. When natural wetland distributions were fixed, the amount of CH4 emissions from natural wetland ecosystem over China would increase by 32.0%, 55.3% and 90.8% by the end of 21st century under three representative concentration pathways (RCPs) scenarios, RCP2. 6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively, compared with the current level. Southern China would have higher CH4 emissions compared to that from central and northern China. Besides, there would be relatively low emission fluxes in western China while relatively high emission fluxes in eastern China. Spatially, the areas with relatively high CH4 emission fluxes would be concentrated in the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River, the Northeast and the coasts of the Pearl River. In the future, most natural wetlands would emit more CH4 for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 than that of 2005. However, under RCP2.6 scenario, the increasing trend would be curbed and CH4 emissions (especially from the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau) begin to decrease in the late 21st century.

  3. The influence of anthropogenic aerosol on multi-decadal variations of historical global climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilcox, L J; Highwood, E J; Dunstone, N J

    2013-01-01

    Analysis of single forcing runs from CMIP5 (the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) simulations shows that the mid-twentieth century temperature hiatus, and the coincident decrease in precipitation, is likely to have been influenced strongly by anthropogenic aerosol forcing. Models that include a representation of the indirect effect of aerosol better reproduce inter-decadal variability in historical global-mean near-surface temperatures, particularly the cooling in the 1950s and 1960s, compared to models with representation of the aerosol direct effect only. Models with the indirect effect also show a more pronounced decrease in precipitation during this period, which is in better agreement with observations, and greater inter-decadal variability in the inter-hemispheric temperature difference. This study demonstrates the importance of representing aerosols, and their indirect effects, in general circulation models, and suggests that inter-model diversity in aerosol burden and representation of aerosol–cloud interaction can produce substantial variation in simulations of climate variability on multi-decadal timescales. (letter)

  4. Understanding the Response of Photosynthetic Metabolism in Tropical Forests to Seasonal Climate Variations. Final Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dye, Dennis [U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA (United States); Ivanov, Valeriy [Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI (United States); Saleska, Scott [Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (United States); Huete, Alfredo [Univ. of Arizona, Tucson, AZ (United States); Univ. of Technology, Sydney NSW (Australia)

    2017-03-31

    This U.S-Brazil collaboration for GOAmazon has investigated a deceptively simple question: what controls the response of photosynthesis in Amazon tropical forests to seasonal variations in climate? In the past this question has been difficult to answer with modern earth system process models. We hypothesized that observed dry season increases in photosynthetic capacity are controlled by the phenology of leaf flush and litter fall, from which the seasonal pattern of LAI emerges. Our results confirm this hypothesis (Wu et al., 2016). Synthesis of data collected throughout the 3-year project period continues through December 31, 2017 under no-cost extensions granted to the project teams at University of Michigan and University of Arizona (Award 2). The USGS component (Award 1) ceased on the final date of the project performance period, December 31, 2016. This report summarizes the overall activities and achievements of the project, and constitutes the final project report for the USGS component. The University of Michigan will submit a separate final report that includes additional results and deliverables achieved during the period of their and the University of Arizona’s no-cost extension, which will end on December 31, 2017.

  5. Linking Genetic Variation in Adaptive Plant Traits to Climate in Tetraploid and Octoploid Basin Wildrye [Leymus cinereus (Scribn. & Merr.) A. Love] in the Western U.S.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, R C; Vance-Borland, Ken

    2016-01-01

    Few studies have assessed how ploidy type within a species affects genetic variation among populations in relation to source climates. Basin wildrye (Leymus cinereus (Scribn. & Merr.) A. Love) is a large bunchgrass common in the intermountain Western U.S. found in both octoploid and tetraploid types. In common gardens at two sites over two years differences in both ploidy type and genetic variation within ploidy were observed in phenology, morphology, and production traits on 57 octoploid and 52 tetraploid basin wildrye from the intermountain Western U.S. (Ptypes. Still, among populations octoploids often had greater genetic variation for traits and occupied more diverse climates than tetraploids. Genetic variation for both ploidy types was linked to source climates in canonical correlation analysis, with the first two variates explaining 70% of the variation. Regression of those canonical variates with seed source climate variables produced models that explained 64% and 38% of the variation, respectively, and were used to map 15 seed zones covering 673,258 km2. Utilization of these seed zones will help ensure restoration with adaptive seed sources for both ploidy types. The link between genetic traits and seed source climates suggests climate driven natural selection and adaptive evolution in basin wildrye. The more diverse climates occupied by octoploids and higher trait variation suggests a higher capacity for ecological differentiation than tetraploids in the intermountain Western U.S.

  6. Variations of leaf N and P concentrations in shrubland biomes across northern China: phylogeny, climate, and soil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Xian; Chi, Xiulian; Ji, Chengjun; Liu, Hongyan; Ma, Wenhong; Mohhammat, Anwar; Shi, Zhaoyong; Wang, Xiangping; Yu, Shunli; Yue, Ming; Tang, Zhiyao

    2016-08-01

    Concentrations of leaf nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) are two key traits of plants for ecosystem functioning and dynamics. Foliar stoichiometry varies remarkably among life forms. However, previous studies have focused on the stoichiometric patterns of trees and grasses, leaving a significant knowledge gap for shrubs. In this study, we explored the intraspecific and interspecific variations of leaf N and P concentrations in response to the changes in climate, soil property, and evolutionary history. We analysed 1486 samples composed of 163 shrub species from 361 shrubland sites in northern China encompassing 46.1° (86.7-132.8° E) in longitude and 19.8° (32.6-52.4° N) in latitude. Leaf N concentrations decreased with precipitation, while leaf P concentrations decreased with temperature and increased with precipitation and soil total P concentrations. Both leaf N and P concentrations were phylogenetically conserved, but leaf P concentrations were less conserved than leaf N concentrations. At the community level, climate explained more interspecific variation of leaf nutrient concentrations, while soil nutrients explained most of the intraspecific variation. These results suggested that leaf N and P concentrations responded to climate, soil, and phylogeny in different ways. Climate influenced the community chemical traits through the shift in species composition, whereas soil directly influenced the community chemical traits. New patterns were discovered using our observations on specific regions and vegetation types, which improved our knowledge of broad biogeographic patterns of leaf chemical traits.

  7. Population dynamics in the high Arctic: Climate variations in time and space

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hendrichsen, Ditte Katrine

    Climatic factors profoundly influence the population dynamics, species interactions and demography of Arctic species. Analyses of the spatio-temporal dynamics within and across species are therefore necessary to understand and predict the responses of Arctic ecosystems to climatic variability...

  8. Seasonal variation in AF-related admissions to a coronary care unit in a "hot" climate: fact or fiction?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiu, Andrew; Horowitz, John D; Stewart, Simon

    2004-01-01

    Seasonal variations in atrial fibrillation (AF)-related morbidity and mortality have been demonstrated in "cold" northern European climates, but there are few data describing such a phenomenon in a "hot" climate. To examine the pattern of AF-related admissions to a coronary care unit (CCU) in South Australia operating within a Mediterranean climate, and to determine potential differences according to mean daily temperatures. PATIENT COHORT AND METHODS: A total of 144 admissions to the CCU during the 30 hottest and coldest days (60 days in total) during the calendar year 2001 were analyzed in respect to the absolute number of admissions and the profile of those admitted during "hot" and "cold" days. Overall, there were significantly more admissions to the CCU on "cold" as opposed to "hot" days (90 vs 54 patients in 30 days, P < or = .001). Of the 24 patients found to be in AF on presentation to hospital, 18 (75%) were admitted on cold days (P < .05). Alternatively, during "hot" days, patients were more likely to be diagnosed with unstable angina rather than acute myocardial infarction (46% vs 30%, P = .07) with proportionately fewer patients in AF at the time (11% vs 20%, P = NS). These preliminary data suggest that the phenomenon of seasonal variations in AF-related morbidity extend beyond colder climates to hotter climates with sufficiently large relative (as opposed to absolute) changes in ambient temperatures during the year.

  9. Temporal and spatial characteristics of wet-dry climate variation in the northern slope of Tianshan Mountains, Xinjiang

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Meiyan; Xi, Chen; Bao, Anming

    2008-10-01

    Based on the monthly temperature and rainfall data of 1961-2006, aridity is calculated and its multi-time scales characteristics in different divisions in the northern slope of Tianshan Mountains have been analyzed using Mexican Hat wavelet analysis in this article. The periodic oscillation of aridity variation and the points of abrupt change at different time scales along the time series are discovered. Also the trend of climate change is tested. Additionally, possible association of climate variation in this area with ENSO is explored using SOI date series. The research results indicate that there exist obvious regional characteristics of wet-dry climate variation in the northern slope of Tianshan Mountains. Wavelet analysis shows that there mainly exits two modes of scales (12-24 years and 4-8 years) in every division, while catastrophe point differs in different zones. To predict on the scale of 12-24 years, it will be relatively dry in mountain division and desert area in a period after 2006. In addition, the transition from warm-dry to warm-wet appears in oasis area. Correlation analysis indicted that aridity variation of the northern slope of Tianshan Mountains is affected by ENSO, while influence degree is different between areas; furthermore, this influence is one-year lagging behind ENSO in the whole area.

  10. Rethinking Climate Education: Climate as Entanglement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verlie, Blanche

    2017-01-01

    Climate change education often relies on climate science's mantra that climate change is human induced, not natural. In a posttruth world, this can seem unequivocally necessary. However, I worry that this perpetuates the human/nature dualism and may thus reiterate the very distinction we are seeking to transgress. In this article, I outline my…

  11. Late-Quaternary variations in clay minerals along the SW continental margin of India: Evidence of climatic variations

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Chauhan, O.S.; Sukhija, B.S.; Gujar, A.R.; Nagabhushanam, P.; Paropkari, A.L.

    Down-core variations in illite, chlorite, smectite and kaolinite (the major clays) in two sup(14)C-dated cores collected along the SW continental margin of India show that illite and chlorite have enhanced abundance during 20-17, 12.5, 11-9.5, and 5...

  12. Miocene climate variations in the Moesian Platform sediments based on sedimentology and biomarkers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butiseaca, Geanina; Vasiliev, Iuliana; Rabagia, Traian; Dinu, Corneliu; Mulch, Andreas

    2017-04-01

    During the Miocene the Moesian Platform (southern Romania and northern Bulgaria) had a complicated flexural behavior due to the mobility of the nearby orogens. The different behavior induced varying sediment charges, sediment distribution and sediment types. The northern part of the study area (on which the Dacian Basin is overlaid) is characterized by siliciclastic units with dominantly deep facieses, while the southern part is characterized by carbonate production in shallower basin waters. Since the Miocene, the Dacian and Black Sea basins have been highly sensitive to fluctuations in the hydrological cycle. To establish the dynamic evolution of the basin and the climate variations during the Miocene, we have sampled both northern and southern margins of the basin. To discriminate between the tectonic imprint and the eustatic influence over the sedimentation rate we have chosen a multidisciplinary approach including sedimentology, tectonics and organic geochemistry based reconstructions. The sedimentary succession is interrupted by few unconformities correspondent with the main phases of orogeny (in the Carpathian Foredeep) while the southern part seems to have been exposed more often expressed in the geological record by a higher number of unconformities and paleo-soils levels. The n-alkanes distribution recovered from the lipids extracted from the sedimentary rocks indicates a mixture of terrestrial and marine input in the northern, Romanian, closer to Carpathians, part of the Dacian Basin. Surprisingly, the southern, Bulgarian side, showed a more predominant terrestrial input (with higher contribution of the long chain n-alkanes) at least for the Sarmatian (arround 10 Ma). The estimated paleotemperatures based on branched GDGT's indicate much warmer conditions than present day, up to a value of 20 C mean annual temperatures. We will further investigate the paleoenvironmental changes during the latest Miocene of the Dacian basin, using the biomarker approach

  13. The role of natural climatic variation in perturbing the observed global mean temperature trend

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hunt, B.G. [CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Aspendale, VIC (Australia)

    2011-02-15

    Controversy continues to prevail concerning the reality of anthropogenically-induced climatic warming. One of the principal issues is the cause of the hiatus in the current global warming trend. There appears to be a widely held view that climatic change warming should exhibit an inexorable upwards trend, a view that implies there is no longer any input by climatic variability in the existing climatic system. The relative roles of climatic change and climatic variability are examined here using the same coupled global climatic model. For the former, the model is run using a specified CO{sub 2} growth scenario, while the latter consisted of a multi-millennial simulation where any climatic variability was attributable solely to internal processes within the climatic system. It is shown that internal climatic variability can produce global mean surface temperature anomalies of {+-}0.25 K and sustained positive and negative anomalies sufficient to account for the anomalous warming of the 1940s as well as the present hiatus in the observed global warming. The characteristics of the internally-induced negative temperature anomalies are such that if this internal natural variability is the cause of the observed hiatus, then a resumption of the observed global warming trend is to be expected within the next few years. (orig.)

  14. The Effect of Climate, Environment and Man on Variations in Wildlife Population Fluctuations in Greenland Over 200 Years

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Moshøj, Charlotte Margaret

    The Effect of Climate, Environment and Man on Variations in Wildlife Population Fluctuations in Greenland Over 200 Years Moshøj, Charlotte The underlying factors of species fluctuating population dynamics has been the dominant focus of attention in population ecology throughout much of this century...... passed on from Inuit elders all document that the presence of wildlife species and their population sizes have undergone pronounced fluctuations throughout recordable historical time. The most detailed accounts are found for the species that were harvested or had economical value. While several recent...... data, environmental factors and temporal variations in social and demographic parameters in the existing society. The results of this study model future predictions of wildlife populations under changing climate variables and human hunting pressure. View Presentation....

  15. a Study of the Impact of Doubling Carbon Dioxide and Solar Radiation Variations on the Climate System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chu, Shaoping

    The exchange of moisture and heat between the atmosphere and the Earth's surface fundamentally affect the dynamics and thermodynamics of the climate system. In order to trace moisture flow through the climate system and examine its impact on climate, a hydrologic cycle and a land energy balance have been developed and incorporated into a coupled climate-thermodynamic sea ice (CCSI) model. The expanded CCSI model has been tested by comparing computed climate parameters with available observations and GCM modeling results. In general, the expanded model does a good job in simulating the large scale features of the atmospheric circulation and precipitation in both space and time. The expanded model has been used to examine the possibility that increased levels of CO_2 in the atmosphere may induce the growth of Northern Hemisphere ice sheets. Results of the study indicate that if summer ice albedo is high enough, and there is some mechanism for initially maintaining ice through the summer season, then it may be possible to have ice sheet growth under the conditions CO_2 induced warming, mainly the result of decreased summer ice melt in response to the higher land ice albedo, and not an increase in precipitation. The expanded model has also been used to examine the impact of Milankovitch solar radiation variations on the climate system, to study the mechanisms that produce glacial-interglacial cycles, especially with respect to the initiation of ice sheets. The results show the Milankovitch solar radiation variations affect the climate system most in the polar regions with the mean annual surface air temperature varying directly in response to changes in the annually averaged incoming solar radiation. However, the seasonal variations in the surface air temperatures are much more complex with large magnitude variations for brief times during the year. The study indicates that ice sheets may start to grow under the conditions of low insolation that occurred at 25, 70, and

  16. Millennial-scale climate variations recorded in Early Pliocene colour reflectance time series from the lacustrine Ptolemais Basin (NW Greece)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steenbrink, J.; Kloosterboer-van Hoeve, M. L.; Hilgen, F. J.

    2003-03-01

    Quaternary climate proxy records show compelling evidence for climate variability on time scales of a few thousand years. The causes for these millennial-scale or sub-Milankovitch cycles are still poorly understood, not least due to the complex feedback mechanisms of large ice sheets during the Quaternary. We present evidence of millennial-scale climate variability in Early Pliocene lacustrine sediments from the intramontane Ptolemais Basin in northwestern Greece. The sediments are well exposed in a series of open-pit lignite mines and exhibit a distinct millennial-scale sedimentary cyclicity of alternating lignites and lacustrine marl beds that resulted from precession-induced variations in climate. The higher-frequency, millennial-scale cyclicity is particularly prominent within the grey-coloured marl segment of individual cycles. A stratigraphic interval of ˜115 ka, covering five precession-induced sedimentary cycles, was studied in nine parallel sections from two open-pit lignite mines located several km apart. High-resolution colour reflectance records were used to quantify the within-cycle variability and to determine its lateral continuity. Much of the within-cycle variability could be correlated between the parallel sections, even in fine detail, which suggests that these changes reflect basin-wide variations in environmental conditions related to (regional) climate fluctuations. Interbedded volcanic ash beds demonstrate the synchronicity of these fluctuations and spectral analysis of the reflectance time series shows a significant concentration of within-cycle variability at periods of ˜11, ˜5.5 and ˜2 ka. The occurrence of variability at such time scales at times before the intensification of the Northern Hemisphere glaciation suggests that they cannot solely have resulted from internal ice-sheet dynamics. Possible candidates include harmonics or combination tones of the main orbital cycles, variations in solar output or periodic motions of the Earth

  17. Spatial and temporal variation in climate change: A bird’s eye view

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fontaine, Joseph J.; Decker, Karie L.; Skagen, Susan K.; van Riper, Charles

    2009-01-01

    Recent changes in global climate have dramatically altered worldwide temperatures and the corresponding timing of seasonal climate conditions. Recognizing the degree to which species respond to changing climates is therefore an area of increasing conservation concern as species that are unable to respond face increased risk of extinction. Here we examine spatial and temporal heterogeneity in the rate of climate change across western North America and discuss the potential for conditions to arise that may limit the ability of western migratory birds to adapt to changing climates. Based on 52 years of climate data, we show that changes in temperature and precipitation differ significantly between spring migration habitats in the desert southwest and breeding habitats throughout western North America. Such differences may ultimately increase costs to individual birds and thereby threaten the long-term population viability of many species.

  18. Sensitivity of ring growth and carbon allocation to climatic variation vary within ponderosa pine trees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerhoulas, Lucy P; Kane, Jeffrey M

    2012-01-01

    Most dendrochronological studies focus on cores sampled from standard positions (main stem, breast height), yet vertical gradients in hydraulic constraints and priorities for carbon allocation may contribute to different growth sensitivities with position. Using cores taken from five positions (coarse roots, breast height, base of live crown, mid-crown branch and treetop), we investigated how radial growth sensitivity to climate over the period of 1895-2008 varies by position within 36 large ponderosa pines (Pinus ponderosa Dougl.) in northern Arizona. The climate parameters investigated were Palmer Drought Severity Index, water year and monsoon precipitation, maximum annual temperature, minimum annual temperature and average annual temperature. For each study tree, we generated Pearson correlation coefficients between ring width indices from each position and six climate parameters. We also investigated whether the number of missing rings differed among positions and bole heights. We found that tree density did not significantly influence climatic sensitivity to any of the climate parameters investigated at any of the sample positions. Results from three types of analyses suggest that climatic sensitivity of tree growth varied with position height: (i) correlations of radial growth and climate variables consistently increased with height; (ii) model strength based on Akaike's information criterion increased with height, where treetop growth consistently had the highest sensitivity and coarse roots the lowest sensitivity to each climatic parameter; and (iii) the correlation between bole ring width indices decreased with distance between positions. We speculate that increased sensitivity to climate at higher positions is related to hydraulic limitation because higher positions experience greater xylem tensions due to gravitational effects that render these positions more sensitive to climatic stresses. The low sensitivity of root growth to all climatic variables

  19. Investigating the effects of climate variations on bacillary dysentery incidence in northeast China using ridge regression and hierarchical cluster analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guo Junqiao

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The effects of climate variations on bacillary dysentery incidence have gained more recent concern. However, the multi-collinearity among meteorological factors affects the accuracy of correlation with bacillary dysentery incidence. Methods As a remedy, a modified method to combine ridge regression and hierarchical cluster analysis was proposed for investigating the effects of climate variations on bacillary dysentery incidence in northeast China. Results All weather indicators, temperatures, precipitation, evaporation and relative humidity have shown positive correlation with the monthly incidence of bacillary dysentery, while air pressure had a negative correlation with the incidence. Ridge regression and hierarchical cluster analysis showed that during 1987–1996, relative humidity, temperatures and air pressure affected the transmission of the bacillary dysentery. During this period, all meteorological factors were divided into three categories. Relative humidity and precipitation belonged to one class, temperature indexes and evaporation belonged to another class, and air pressure was the third class. Conclusion Meteorological factors have affected the transmission of bacillary dysentery in northeast China. Bacillary dysentery prevention and control would benefit from by giving more consideration to local climate variations.

  20. The Vulnerability of Earth Systems to Human-Induced Global Change and Strategies for Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watson, R. T.

    2002-12-01

    Since the IGY, there has been growing evidence that climate is changing in response to human activities. The overwhelming majority of scientific experts, whilst recognizing that scientific uncertainties exist, nonetheless believe that human-induced climate change is inevitable. Indeed, during the last few years, many parts of the world have suffered major heat waves, floods, droughts, fires and extreme weather events leading to significant economic losses and loss of life. While individual events cannot be directly linked to human-induced climate change, the frequency and magnitude of these types of events are predicted to increase in a warmer world. The question is not whether climate will change, but rather how much (magnitude), how fast (the rate of change) and where (regional patterns). It is also clear that climate change and other human-induced modifications to the environment will, in many parts of the world, adversely affect socio-economic sectors, including water resources, agriculture, forestry, fisheries and human settlements, ecological systems (particularly forests and coral reefs), and human health (particularly diseases spread by insects), with developing countries being the most vulnerable. Environmental degradation of all types (i.e., climate change, loss of biodiversity, land degradation, air and water quality) all undermine the challenge of poverty alleviation and sustainable economic growth. One of the major challenges facing humankind is to provide an equitable standard of living for this and future generations: adequate food, water and energy, safe shelter and a healthy environment (e.g., clean air and water). Unfortunately, human-induced climate change, as well as other global environmental issues such as land degradation, loss of biological diversity and stratospheric ozone depletion, threatens our ability to meet these basic human needs. The good news is, however, that the majority of experts believe that significant reductions in net

  1. Large-scale geographical variation confirms that climate change causes birds to lay earlier

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Both, C; Artemyev, AV; Blaauw, B; Cowie, RJ; Dekhuijzen, AJ; Eeva, T; Enemar, A; Gustafsson, L; Ivankina, EV; Jarvinen, A; Metcalfe, NB; Nyholm, NEI; Potti, J; Ravussin, PA; Sanz, JJ; Silverin, B; Slater, FM; Sokolov, LV; Torok, J; Winkel, W; Wright, J; Zang, H; Visser, ME

    2004-01-01

    Advances in the phenology of organisms are often attributed to climate change, but alternatively, may reflect a publication bias towards advances and may be caused by environmental factors unrelated to climate change. Both factors are investigated using the breeding dates of 25 long-term studied

  2. River response to variations of periglacial climate in mid-latitude Europe.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mol, J.; Vandenberghe, J.; Kasse, C.

    2000-01-01

    The Last Glaciation was characterised by considerable changes in climate. Many European river basins reacted to these changes by initial incision and subsequent pattern change. Earlier research explained this by the time lag of vegetation development after a climatic change, which considerably

  3. Unraveling Metabolic Variation for Blueberry and Chokeberry Cultivars Harvested from Different Geo-Climatic Regions in Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sim, Inseon; Suh, Dong Ho; Singh, Digar; Do, Seon-Gil; Moon, Kwang Hyun; Lee, Jeong Ho; Ku, Kang-Mo; Lee, Choong Hwan

    2017-10-18

    Temporal geo-climatic variations are presumably vital determinants of phenotypic traits and quality characteristics of berries manifested through reconfigured metabolomes. We performed an untargeted mass spectrometry (MS)-based metabolomic analysis of blueberry (Vaccinium spp.) and chokeberry (Aronia melanocarpa) sample extracts harvested from different geo-climatic regions in Korea. The multivariate statistical analysis indicated distinct metabolite compositions of berry groups based on different species and regions. The amino acids levels were relatively more abundant in chokeberry than in blueberry, while the sugar contents were comparatively higher in blueberry. However, the metabolite compositions were also dependent on geo-climatic conditions, especially latitude. Notwithstanding the cultivar types, amino acids, and sucrose were relatively more abundant in berries harvested from 35°N and 36°N geo-climatic regions, respectively, characterized by distinct duration of sunshine and rainfall patterns. The present study showed the ability of a metabolomics approach for recapitulating the significance of geo-climatic parameters for quality characterization of commercial berry types.

  4. The Space-Time Variation of Global Crop Yields, Detecting Simultaneous Outliers and Identifying the Teleconnections with Climatic Patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Najafi, E.; Devineni, N.; Pal, I.; Khanbilvardi, R.

    2017-12-01

    An understanding of the climate factors that influence the space-time variability of crop yields is important for food security purposes and can help us predict global food availability. In this study, we address how the crop yield trends of countries globally were related to each other during the last several decades and the main climatic variables that triggered high/low crop yields simultaneously across the world. Robust Principal Component Analysis (rPCA) is used to identify the primary modes of variation in wheat, maize, sorghum, rice, soybeans, and barley yields. Relations between these modes of variability and important climatic variables, especially anomalous sea surface temperature (SSTa), are examined from 1964 to 2010. rPCA is also used to identify simultaneous outliers in each year, i.e. systematic high/low crop yields across the globe. The results demonstrated spatiotemporal patterns of these crop yields and the climate-related events that caused them as well as the connection of outliers with weather extremes. We find that among climatic variables, SST has had the most impact on creating simultaneous crop yields variability and yield outliers in many countries. An understanding of this phenomenon can benefit global crop trade networks.

  5. Wood density variations of Norway spruce (Picea abies (L. Karst. under contrasting climate conditions in southwestern Germany

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marieke van der Maaten-Theunissen

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available We analyzed inter-annual variations in ring width and maximumwood density of Norway spruce (Picea abies (L. Karst. at different altitudes in Baden-Württemberg, southwestern Germany, to determine the climate response of these parameters under contrasting climate conditions. In addition, we compared maximum, average and minimum wood density between sites. Bootstrapped correlation coefficients of ring width and maximum wood density with monthly temperature and precipitation, revealed a different climate sensitivity of both parameters. Ring width showed strong correlations with climate variables in the previous year and in the first half of the growingseason. Further, a negative relationship with summer temperature was observed at the low-altitude sites. Maximum wood density correlated best with temperature during the growing season, whereby strongest correlations were found between September temperature and maximum wood density at the high-altitude sites. Observed differences in maximum, average and minimum wood density are suggested to relate to the local climate; with lower temperature and higher water availability having a negative effect on wood density.

  6. Wood density variations of Norway spruce (Picea abies (L. Karst. under contrasting climate conditions in southwestern Germany

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marieke van der Maaten-Theunissen

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available We analyzed inter-annual variations in ring width and maximum wood density of Norway spruce (Picea abies (L. Karst. at different altitudes in Baden-Württemberg, southwestern Germany, to determine the climate response of these parameters under contrasting climate conditions. In addition, we compared maximum, average and minimum wood density between sites. Bootstrapped correlation coefficients of ring width and maximum wood density with monthly temperature and precipitation, revealed a different climate sensitivity of both parameters. Ring width showed strong correlations with climate variables in the previous year and in the first half of the growing season. Further, a negative relationship with summer temperature was observed at the low-altitude sites. Maximum wood density correlated best with temperature during the growing season, whereby strongest correlations were found between September temperature and maximum wood density at the high-altitude sites. Observed differences in maximum, average and minimum wood density are suggested to relate to the local climate; with lower temperatures and higher water availability having a negative effect on wood density. 

  7. Contribution to the study of the zonal variation of the climate aridity in central northern Sahara (Algeria)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benseghier-Hadjaidji, Fatiha; Talbi, Nadjib; Derridj, Arezki

    2018-05-01

    The environment degradation at the level of all its compartments which we notice at present, calls us to the risks that it would underestimate the climatic and consequently bioclimatic crisis there, in the North as in the South of the Mediterranean region. To protect the environment is not a luxury. In this respect, we wondered about the zonal variation of the climate aridity at the level of three bordering climatic stations: El-Oued, Touggourt and Ouargla. These are distant from 160 km on average some of the others. For that purpose, we based ourselves on the statistical tool the software "instat +" for the estimation of the ETP (PM) and afterward the determination of the pluvio-evapotranspiration "quotient P/ETP". For this analysis, the climatic data spread out over a period of 20 years. The results allowed to specify the aridity degree of the studied zone. So, they reveal a mitigation of the aridity of the climate in Touggourt and El-Oued while the hyper-aridity distinguishes well the Ouargla region. This approach contributes to a better knowledge of the dry ecosystems. This is important to indicate it to turn better in the eremologic search later.

  8. Effects of range-wide variation in climate and isolation on floral traits and reproductive output of Clarkia pulchella.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bontrager, Megan; Angert, Amy L

    2016-01-01

    Plant mating systems and geographic range limits are conceptually linked by shared underlying drivers, including landscape-level heterogeneity in climate and in species' abundance. Studies of how geography and climate interact to affect plant traits that influence mating system and population dynamics can lend insight to ecological and evolutionary processes shaping ranges. Here, we examined how spatiotemporal variation in climate affects reproductive output of a mixed-mating annual, Clarkia pulchella. We also tested the effects of population isolation and climate on mating-system-related floral traits across the range. We measured reproductive output and floral traits on herbarium specimens collected across the range of C. pulchella. We extracted climate data associated with specimens and derived a population isolation metric from a species distribution model. We then examined how predictors of reproductive output and floral traits vary among populations of increasing distance from the range center. Finally, we tested whether reproductive output and floral traits vary with increasing distance from the center of the range. Reproductive output decreased as summer precipitation decreased, and low precipitation may contribute to limiting the southern and western range edges of C. pulchella. High spring and summer temperatures are correlated with low herkogamy, but these climatic factors show contrasting spatial patterns in different quadrants of the range. Limiting factors differ among different parts of the range. Due to the partial decoupling of geography and environment, examining relationships between climate, reproductive output, and mating-system-related floral traits reveals spatial patterns that might be missed when focusing solely on geographic position. © 2016 Botanical Society of America.

  9. Decadal climate variation recorded in modern global carbonate archives (brachiopods, molluscs)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romanin, Marco; Zaki, Amir H.; Davis, Alyssa; Shaver, Kristen; Wang, Lisha; Aleksandra Bitner, Maria; Capraro, Luca; Preto, Nereo; Brand, Uwe

    2017-04-01

    The progress of the Earth's warming trend has rapidly accelerated in the last few decades due to the increase in emission of anthropogenic greenhouse gases. The exchange of heat between the atmosphere and seawater has consequently elevated the rate of temperature buildup in the low and high latitude ocean. Records of the variation in seawater temperature in response to local and global changes in climate are preserved within the carbonate structures of marine biogenic archives. Investigating the isotopic composition of the archives' growth increments documents the magnitude of sea surface temperature (SST) change. A long-term (1956-2012) record of temperature change in sub-tropical seawater was acquired from the giant clam Tridacna maxima collected from the Red Sea in conjunction with published results of the oyster Hyotissa hyotis (Titschack et al., 2010). Variation in polar-subpolar SST was obtained from the brachiopod Magellania venosa recovered from the coastal area of southern Chile, and from the proxy record of Hemithiris psittacea of Hudson Bay (Brand et al., 2014). The former reveals a long-term (1961-2012) time-series of Antarctic-induced oceanographic change in the southern hemisphere, while the latter represents a trend of Hudson Bay seawater SST in the northern hemisphere. Evaluation of the isotopic compositions confirms the equilibrium incorporation of oxygen isotopes with respect to ambient seawater in brachiopods and some bivalves. A general trend of decreasing δ18O values in the Red Sea molluscs is observed, indicating an increase in tropical seawater temperature of about 0.79°C since 1988. The δ18O values of the polar-subpolar brachiopods display similar depletion slopes but of larger magnitudes than that of the Red Sea archives. This signifies a rise in seawater temperature of about 1.47°C in Hudson Bay since 1991, and about 2.08°C in southern Chile since 1988. The 2013 IPCC report suggests an increase in SST of +0.094°C per decade (average

  10. Extinction risks forced by climatic change and intraspecific variation in the thermal physiology of a tropical lizard.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pontes-da-Silva, Emerson; Magnusson, William E; Sinervo, Barry; Caetano, Gabriel H; Miles, Donald B; Colli, Guarino R; Diele-Viegas, Luisa M; Fenker, Jessica; Santos, Juan C; Werneck, Fernanda P

    2018-04-01

    Temperature increases can impact biodiversity and predicting their effects is one of the main challenges facing global climate-change research. Ectotherms are sensitive to temperature change and, although predictions indicate that tropical species are highly vulnerable to global warming, they remain one of the least studied groups with respect to the extent of physiological variation and local extinction risks. We model the extinction risks for a tropical heliothermic teiid lizard (Kentropyx calcarata) integrating previously obtained information on intraspecific phylogeographic structure, eco-physiological traits and contemporary species distributions in the Amazon rainforest and its ecotone to the Cerrado savannah. We also investigated how thermal-biology traits vary throughout the species' geographic range and the consequences of such variation for lineage vulnerability. We show substantial variation in thermal tolerance of individuals among thermally distinct sites. Thermal critical limits were highly correlated with operative environmental temperatures. Our physiological/climatic model predicted relative extinction risks for local populations within clades of K. calcarata for 2050 ranging between 26.1% and 70.8%, while for 2070, extinction risks ranged from 52.8% to 92.8%. Our results support the hypothesis that tropical-lizard taxa are at high risk of local extinction caused by increasing temperatures. However, the thermo-physiological differences found across the species' distribution suggest that local adaptation may allow persistence of this tropical ectotherm in global warming scenarios. These results will serve as basis to further research to investigate the strength of local adaptation to climate change. Persistence of Kentropyx calcarata also depends on forest preservation, but the Amazon rainforest is currently under high deforestation rates. We argue that higher conservation priority is necessary so the Amazon rainforest can fulfill its capacity to

  11. Groundwater recharge - climatic and vegetation induced variations. Simulations in the Emaan and Aespoe areas in southern Sweden

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Losjoe, K.; Johansson, Barbro; Bringfelt, B.; Oleskog, I.; Bergstroem, S.

    1999-01-01

    Climate change and man-made interference will cause an impact on runoff and groundwater recharge in the future. With the aim to give a conception of seasonal variations and the magnitude of the differences, the HBV model has been used as a tool for simulating five climate alternatives in two areas of south-east Sweden. The climate alternatives include both increased and decreased temperature and precipitation. These are not predictions of a future climate change, and should only be regarded as examples. The purpose has been to exemplify a conceivable magnitude of change during temperate/boreal conditions. It has not been within the scope of this report to evaluate the most probable climate change scenarios. The impacts of different climate scenarios on the total groundwater recharge and the deep groundwater recharge have been calculated as long-term mean values and are presented in comparison with model-simulated values with an actual (recorded) climate sequence. The results show great differences between the climate alternatives. An increase in temperature will decrease snow accumulation and increase the evapotranspiration and can totally extinguish the spring snowmelt peak in runoff and groundwater recharge. A decreased temperature, on the contrary, will imply decreased winter runoff and recharge values and an increase in spring and summer values. Evapotranspiration and soil water content play a key role in the runoff and recharge processes. This report makes a review of some literature about work done within the areas of investigation and calculation of evapotranspiration. Research is in progress, not only on formulating future climate scenarios, but also on distinguishing evapotranspiration from different kinds of vegetation. These are complex questions, but vital ones, as a climate change will also affect the vegetation. Until new research results are presented, well-known methods can be used for simulating the effects of logging on runoff and groundwater

  12. Uncertainty and Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Berliner, L. Mark

    2003-01-01

    Anthropogenic, or human-induced, climate change is a critical issue in science and in the affairs of humankind. Though the target of substantial research, the conclusions of climate change studies remain subject to numerous uncertainties. This article presents a very brief review of the basic arguments regarding anthropogenic climate change with particular emphasis on uncertainty.

  13. Linking Genetic Variation in Adaptive Plant Traits to Climate in Tetraploid and Octoploid Basin Wildrye [Leymus cinereus (Scribn. & Merr. A. Love] in the Western U.S.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R C Johnson

    Full Text Available Few studies have assessed how ploidy type within a species affects genetic variation among populations in relation to source climates. Basin wildrye (Leymus cinereus (Scribn. & Merr. A. Love is a large bunchgrass common in the intermountain Western U.S. found in both octoploid and tetraploid types. In common gardens at two sites over two years differences in both ploidy type and genetic variation within ploidy were observed in phenology, morphology, and production traits on 57 octoploid and 52 tetraploid basin wildrye from the intermountain Western U.S. (P<0.01. Octoploids had larger leaves, longer culms, and greater crown circumference than tetraploids but the numerical ranges of plant traits and their source climates overlapped between ploidy types. Still, among populations octoploids often had greater genetic variation for traits and occupied more diverse climates than tetraploids. Genetic variation for both ploidy types was linked to source climates in canonical correlation analysis, with the first two variates explaining 70% of the variation. Regression of those canonical variates with seed source climate variables produced models that explained 64% and 38% of the variation, respectively, and were used to map 15 seed zones covering 673,258 km2. Utilization of these seed zones will help ensure restoration with adaptive seed sources for both ploidy types. The link between genetic traits and seed source climates suggests climate driven natural selection and adaptive evolution in basin wildrye. The more diverse climates occupied by octoploids and higher trait variation suggests a higher capacity for ecological differentiation than tetraploids in the intermountain Western U.S.

  14. To what extent does climate explain variations in reported malaria cases in early 20th century Uganda?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adrian M. Tompkins

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Malaria case statistics were analysed for the period 1926 to 1960 to identify inter-annual variations in malaria cases for the Uganda Protectorate. The analysis shows the mid-to-late 1930s to be a period of increased reported cases. After World War II, malaria cases trend down to a relative minimum in the early 1950s, before increasing rapidly after 1953 to the end of the decade. Data for the Western Province confirm these national trends, which at the time were attributed to a wide range of causes, including land development and management schemes, population mobility, interventions and misdiagnosis. Climate was occasionally proposed as a contributor to enhanced case numbers, and unusual precipitation patterns were held responsible; temperature was rarely, if ever, considered. In this study, a dynamical malaria model was driven with available precipitation and temperature data from the period for five stations located across a range of environments in Uganda. In line with the historical data, the simulations produced relatively enhanced transmission in the 1930s, although there is considerable variability between locations. In all locations, malaria transmission was low in the late 1940s and early 1950s, steeply increasing after 1954. Results indicate that past climate variability explains some of the variations in numbers of reported malaria cases. The impact of multiannual variability in temperature, while only on the order of 0.5°C, was sufficient to drive some of the trends observed in the statistics and thus the role of climate was likely underestimated in the contemporary reports. As the elimination campaigns of the 1960s followed this partly climate-driven increase in malaria, this emphasises the need to account for climate when planning and evaluating intervention strategies.

  15. Spatial and temporal variations of Norwegian geohazards in a changing climate, the GeoExtreme Project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Jaedicke

    2008-08-01

    Full Text Available Various types of slope processes, mainly landslides and avalanches (snow, rock, clay and debris pose together with floods the main geohazards in Norway. Landslides and avalanches have caused more than 2000 casualties and considerable damage to infrastructure over the last 150 years. The interdisciplinary research project "GeoExtreme" focuses on investigating the coupling between meteorological factors and landslides and avalanches, extrapolating this into the near future with a changing climate and estimating the socioeconomic implications. The main objective of the project is to predict future geohazard changes in a changing climate. A database consisting of more than 20 000 recorded historical events have been coupled with a meteorological database to assess the predictability of landslides and avalanches caused by meteorological conditions. Present day climate and near future climate scenarios are modelled with a global climate model on a stretched grid, focusing on extreme weather events in Norway. The effects of climate change on landslides and avalanche activity are studied in four selected areas covering the most important climatic regions in Norway. The statistical analysis of historical landslide and avalanche events versus weather observations shows strong regional differences in the country. Avalanches show the best correlation with weather events while landslides and rockfalls are less correlated. The new climate modelling approach applying spectral nudging to achieve a regional downscaling for Norway proves to reproduce extreme events of precipitation much better than conventional modelling approaches. Detailed studies of slope stabilities in one of the selected study area show a high sensitivity of slope stability in a changed precipitation regime. The value of elements at risk was estimated in one study area using a GIS based approach that includes an estimation of the values within given present state hazard zones. The ongoing

  16. Model and scenario variations in predicted number of generations of Spodoptera litura Fab. on peanut during future climate change scenario.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mathukumalli Srinivasa Rao

    Full Text Available The present study features the estimation of number of generations of tobacco caterpillar, Spodoptera litura. Fab. on peanut crop at six locations in India using MarkSim, which provides General Circulation Model (GCM of future data on daily maximum (T.max, minimum (T.min air temperatures from six models viz., BCCR-BCM2.0, CNRM-CM3, CSIRO-Mk3.5, ECHams5, INCM-CM3.0 and MIROC3.2 along with an ensemble of the six from three emission scenarios (A2, A1B and B1. This data was used to predict the future pest scenarios following the growing degree days approach in four different climate periods viz., Baseline-1975, Near future (NF -2020, Distant future (DF-2050 and Very Distant future (VDF-2080. It is predicted that more generations would occur during the three future climate periods with significant variation among scenarios and models. Among the seven models, 1-2 additional generations were predicted during DF and VDF due to higher future temperatures in CNRM-CM3, ECHams5 & CSIRO-Mk3.5 models. The temperature projections of these models indicated that the generation time would decrease by 18-22% over baseline. Analysis of variance (ANOVA was used to partition the variation in the predicted number of generations and generation time of S. litura on peanut during crop season. Geographical location explained 34% of the total variation in number of generations, followed by time period (26%, model (1.74% and scenario (0.74%. The remaining 14% of the variation was explained by interactions. Increased number of generations and reduction of generation time across the six peanut growing locations of India suggest that the incidence of S. litura may increase due to projected increase in temperatures in future climate change periods.

  17. Global Climate Forcing from Albedo Change Caused by Large-scale Deforestation and Reforestation: Quantification and Attribution of Geographic Variation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiao, Tong; Williams, Christopher A.; Ghimire, Bardan; Masek, Jeffrey; Gao, Feng; Schaaf, Crystal

    2017-01-01

    Large-scale deforestation and reforestation have contributed substantially to historical and contemporary global climate change in part through albedo-induced radiative forcing, with meaningful implications for forest management aiming to mitigate climate change. Associated warming or cooling varies widely across the globe due to a range of factors including forest type, snow cover, and insolation, but resulting geographic variation remain spoorly described and has been largely based on model assessments. This study provides an observation-based approach to quantify local and global radiative forcings from large-scale deforestation and reforestation and further examines mechanisms that result in the spatial heterogeneity of radiative forcing. We incorporate a new spatially and temporally explicit land cover-specific albedo product derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer with a historical land use data set (Land Use Harmonization product). Spatial variation in radiative forcing was attributed to four mechanisms, including the change in snow-covered albedo, change in snow-free albedo, snow cover fraction, and incoming solar radiation. We find an albedo-only radiative forcing (RF) of -0.819 W m(exp -2) if year 2000 forests were completely deforested and converted to croplands. Albedo RF from global reforestation of present-day croplands to recover year 1700 forests is estimated to be 0.161 W m)exp -2). Snow-cover fraction is identified as the primary factor in determining the spatial variation of radiative forcing in winter, while the magnitude of the change in snow-free albedo is the primary factor determining variations in summertime RF. Findings reinforce the notion that, for conifers at the snowier high latitudes, albedo RF diminishes the warming from forest loss and the cooling from forest gain more so than for other forest types, latitudes, and climate settings.

  18. Assessing the effect of the relative atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) on length-of-day (LOD) variations under climate warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehmann, E.; Hansen, F.; Ulbrich, U.; Nevir, P.; Leckebusch, G. C.

    2009-04-01

    While most studies on model-projected future climate warming discuss climatological quantities, this study investigates the response of the relative atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) to climate warming for the 21th century and discusses its possible effects on future length-of-day variations. Following the derivation of the dynamic relation between atmosphere and solid earth by Barnes et al. (Proc. Roy. Soc., 1985) this study relates the axial atmospheric excitation function X3 to changes in length-of-day that are proportional to variations in zonal winds. On interannual time scales changes in the relative AAM (ERA40 reanalyses) are well correlated with observed length-of-day (LOD, IERS EOP CO4) variability (r=0.75). The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a prominent coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon to cause global climate variability on interannual time scales. Correspondingly, changes in observed LOD relate to ENSO due to observed strong wind anomalies. This study investigates the varying effect of AAM anomalies on observed LOD by relating AAM to variations to ENSO teleconnections (sea surface temperatures, SSTs) and the Pacific North America (PNA) oscillation for the 20th and 21st century. The differently strong effect of strong El Niño events (explained variance 71%-98%) on present time (1962-2000) observed LOD-AAM relation can be associated to variations in location and strength of jet streams in the upper troposphere. Correspondingly, the relation between AAM and SSTs in the NIÑO 3.4 region also varies between explained variances of 15% to 73%. Recent coupled ocean-atmosphere projections on future climate warming suggest changes in frequency and amplitude of ENSO events. Since changes in the relative AAM indicate shifts in large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns due to climate change, AAM - ENSO relations are assessed in coupled atmosphere-ocean (ECHAM5-OM1) climate warming projections (A1B) for the 21st century. A strong rise (+31%) in

  19. Analyzing the contribution of climate change to long-term variations in sediment nitrogen sources for reservoirs/lakes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xia, Xinghui, E-mail: xiaxh@bnu.edu.cn [School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation/Key Laboratory of Water and Sediment Sciences of Ministry of Education, Beijing 100875 (China); Wu, Qiong; Zhu, Baotong; Zhao, Pujun [School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation/Key Laboratory of Water and Sediment Sciences of Ministry of Education, Beijing 100875 (China); Zhang, Shangwei [Department of Isotope Biogeochemistry, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research — UFZ, Permoserstraße 15, Leipzig 04318 (Germany); Yang, Lingyan [Beijing Municipal Environmental Monitoring Center, Beijing 100048 (China)

    2015-08-01

    We applied a mixing model based on stable isotopic δ{sup 13}C, δ{sup 15}N, and C:N ratios to estimate the contributions of multiple sources to sediment nitrogen. We also developed a conceptual model describing and analyzing the impacts of climate change on nitrogen enrichment. These two models were conducted in Miyun Reservoir to analyze the contribution of climate change to the variations in sediment nitrogen sources based on two {sup 210}Pb and {sup 137}Cs dated sediment cores. The results showed that during the past 50 years, average contributions of soil and fertilizer, submerged macrophytes, N{sub 2}-fixing phytoplankton, and non-N{sub 2}-fixing phytoplankton were 40.7%, 40.3%, 11.8%, and 7.2%, respectively. In addition, total nitrogen (TN) contents in sediment showed significant increasing trends from 1960 to 2010, and sediment nitrogen of both submerged macrophytes and phytoplankton sources exhibited significant increasing trends during the past 50 years. In contrast, soil and fertilizer sources showed a significant decreasing trend from 1990 to 2010. According to the changing trend of N{sub 2}-fixing phytoplankton, changes of temperature and sunshine duration accounted for at least 43% of the trend in the sediment nitrogen enrichment over the past 50 years. Regression analysis of the climatic factors on nitrogen sources showed that the contributions of precipitation, temperature, and sunshine duration to the variations in sediment nitrogen sources ranged from 18.5% to 60.3%. The study demonstrates that the mixing model provides a robust method for calculating the contribution of multiple nitrogen sources in sediment, and this study also suggests that N{sub 2}-fixing phytoplankton could be regarded as an important response factor for assessing the impacts of climate change on nitrogen enrichment. - Highlights: • A mixing model was built to analyze sediment N sources of lakes/reservoirs. • Fertilizer/soil and macrophytes showed decreasing trends during

  20. Analyzing the contribution of climate change to long-term variations in sediment nitrogen sources for reservoirs/lakes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xia, Xinghui; Wu, Qiong; Zhu, Baotong; Zhao, Pujun; Zhang, Shangwei; Yang, Lingyan

    2015-01-01

    We applied a mixing model based on stable isotopic δ 13 C, δ 15 N, and C:N ratios to estimate the contributions of multiple sources to sediment nitrogen. We also developed a conceptual model describing and analyzing the impacts of climate change on nitrogen enrichment. These two models were conducted in Miyun Reservoir to analyze the contribution of climate change to the variations in sediment nitrogen sources based on two 210 Pb and 137 Cs dated sediment cores. The results showed that during the past 50 years, average contributions of soil and fertilizer, submerged macrophytes, N 2 -fixing phytoplankton, and non-N 2 -fixing phytoplankton were 40.7%, 40.3%, 11.8%, and 7.2%, respectively. In addition, total nitrogen (TN) contents in sediment showed significant increasing trends from 1960 to 2010, and sediment nitrogen of both submerged macrophytes and phytoplankton sources exhibited significant increasing trends during the past 50 years. In contrast, soil and fertilizer sources showed a significant decreasing trend from 1990 to 2010. According to the changing trend of N 2 -fixing phytoplankton, changes of temperature and sunshine duration accounted for at least 43% of the trend in the sediment nitrogen enrichment over the past 50 years. Regression analysis of the climatic factors on nitrogen sources showed that the contributions of precipitation, temperature, and sunshine duration to the variations in sediment nitrogen sources ranged from 18.5% to 60.3%. The study demonstrates that the mixing model provides a robust method for calculating the contribution of multiple nitrogen sources in sediment, and this study also suggests that N 2 -fixing phytoplankton could be regarded as an important response factor for assessing the impacts of climate change on nitrogen enrichment. - Highlights: • A mixing model was built to analyze sediment N sources of lakes/reservoirs. • Fertilizer/soil and macrophytes showed decreasing trends during the past two decades.

  1. Masked millennial-scale climate variations in South West Africa during the last glaciation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. Hessler

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available To address the connection between tropical African vegetation development and high-latitude climate change we present a high-resolution pollen record from ODP Site 1078 (off Angola covering the period 50–10 ka BP. Although several tropical African vegetation and climate reconstructions indicate an impact of Heinrich Stadials (HSs in Southern Hemisphere Africa, our vegetation record shows no response. Model simulations conducted with an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity including a dynamical vegetation component provide one possible explanation. Because both precipitation and evaporation increased during HSs and their effects nearly cancelled each other, there was a negligible change in moisture supply. Consequently, the resulting climatic response to HSs might have been too weak to noticeably affect the vegetation composition in the study area. Our results also show that the response to HSs in southern tropical Africa neither equals nor mirrors the response to abrupt climate change in northern Africa.

  2. Predicting species-specific responses of fungi to climatic variation using historical records.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diez, Jeffrey M; James, Timothy Y; McMunn, Marshall; Ibáñez, Inés

    2013-10-01

    Although striking changes have been documented in plant and animal phenology over the past century, less is known about how the fungal kingdom's phenology has been changing. A few recent studies have documented changes in fungal fruiting in Europe in the last few decades, but the geographic and taxonomic extent of these changes, the mechanisms behind these changes, and their relationships to climate are not well understood. Here, we analyzed herbarium data of 274 species of fungi from Michigan to test the hypotheses that fruiting times of fungi depend on annual climate and that responses depend on taxonomic and functional groups. We show that the fungal community overall fruits later in warmer and drier years, which has led to a shift toward later fruiting dates for autumn-fruiting species, consistent with existing evidence. However, we also show that these effects are highly variable among species and are partly explained by basic life-history characteristics. Resulting differences in climate sensitivities are expected to affect community structure as climate changes. This study provides a unique picture of the climate dependence of fungal phenology in North America and an approach for quantifying how individual species and broader fungal communities will respond to ongoing climate change. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  3. Spatial and temporal variations of wind erosion climatic erosivity in the farming-pastoral zone of Northern China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yue, Shuping; Yang, Ruixin; Yan, Yechao; Yang, Zhengwei; Wang, Dandan

    2018-03-01

    Wind erosion climatic erosivity is an important parameter to assess the possible effects of climatic conditions on wind erosion. In this paper, the wind erosion climatic factor (C-factor), which was used to quantify the wind erosion climatic erosivity, was calculated for the period 1960-2014 based on monthly meteorological data collected from 101 stations in the farming-pastoral zone of Northern China. The Mann-Kendall (M-K) test, trend analysis, and geostatistical analysis methods were used to explore the spatial and temporal characteristics of the wind erosion climatic erosivity in this region. The result suggests that the annual C-factor, with a maximum of 76.05 in 1969 and a minimum of 26.57 in 2007, has a significant decreasing trend over the past 55 years. Strong seasonality in the C-factor was found, with the highest value in spring, which accounts for a significant proportion of the annual C-factor (41.46%). However, the coefficient of variation of the seasonal C-factor reaches a maximum in winter and a minimum in spring. The mean annual C-factor varies substantially across the region. Areas with high values of the mean annual C-factor (C ≥ 100) are located in Ulanqab and Dingxi, while areas with low values (C ≤ 10) lie in Lanzhou, Linxia, Dingxi, Xining, and Chengde. Spatial analysis on the trend of the C-factor reveals that 81% of the stations show statistically significant decreases at a 90% confidence level. An examination of the concentration ratio of the C-factor shows that the wind erosion climatic erosivity is concentrated in spring, especially in April, which makes this period particularly important for implementing soil conservation measures.

  4. Variations in the Sensitivity of Shrub Growth to Climate Change along Arctic Environmental and Biotic Gradients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beck, P. S. A.; Myers-Smith, I. H.; Elmendorf, S.; Georges, D.

    2015-12-01

    Despite evidence of rapid shrub expansion at many Arctic sites and the profound effects this has on ecosystem structure, biogeochemical cycling, and land-atmosphere feedbacks in the Arctic, the drivers of shrub growth remain poorly understood. The compilation of 41,576 annual shrub growth measurements made around the Arctic, allowed for the first systematic evaluation of the climate sensitivity of Arctic shrub growth, i.e. the strength of the relationship between annual shrub growth and monthly climate variables. The growth measurements were taken on 1821 plants of 25 species at 37 arctic and alpine sites, either as annual ring widths or as stem increments. We evaluated climate sensitivity of shrub growth for each genus-by-site combination in this data set based on the performance and parameters of linear mixed models that used CRU TS3.21 climate data as predictors of shrub growth between 1950 and 2010. 76% of genus-by-site combinations showed climate sensitive growth, but climate-growth relationships varied with soil moisture, species canopy height, and geographic position within the species ranges. Shrubs growing at sites with more soil moisture showed greater climate sensitivity, suggesting that water availability might limit shrub growth if continued warming isn't matched by a steady increase in soil moisture. Tall shrub species growing at their northern range limit were particularly climate sensitive causing climate sensitivity of shrubs to peak at the transition between Low and High Arctic, where carbon storage in permafrost is greatest. Local and regional studies have documented matching spatial and temporal patterns in dendrochronological measurements and satellite observations of vegetation indices both in boreal and Arctic regions. Yet the circumarctic comparison of patterns in dendrochronological and remote sensing data sets yielded poor levels of agreement. In much of the Arctic, steep environmental gradients generate fine spatial patterns of vegetation

  5. The relationship between female brooding and male nestling provisioning: does climate underlie geographic variation in sex roles?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoon, Jongmin; Sofaer, Helen R.; Sillett, T. Scott; Morrison, Scott A.; Ghalambor, Cameron K.

    2017-01-01

    Comparative studies of populations occupying different environments can provide insights into the ecological conditions affecting differences in parental strategies, including the relative contributions of males and females. Male and female parental strategies reflect the interplay between ecological conditions, the contributions of the social mate, and the needs of offspring. Climate is expected to underlie geographic variation in incubation and brooding behavior, and can thereby affect both the absolute and relative contributions of each sex to other aspects of parental care such as offspring provisioning. However, geographic variation in brooding behavior has received much less attention than variation in incubation attentiveness or provisioning rates. We compared parental behavior during the nestling period in populations of orange-crowned warblers Oreothlypis celata near the northern (64°N) and southern (33°N) boundaries of the breeding range. In Alaska, we found that males were responsible for the majority of food delivery whereas the sexes contributed equally to provisioning in California. Higher male provisioning in Alaska appeared to facilitate a higher proportion of time females spent brooding the nestlings. Surprisingly, differences in brooding between populations could not be explained by variation in ambient temperature, which was similar between populations during the nestling period. While these results represent a single population contrast, they suggest additional hypotheses for the ecological correlates and evolutionary drivers of geographic variation in brooding behavior, and the factors that shape the contributions of each sex.

  6. Spatial-temporal analysis on climate variation in early Qing dynasty (17th -18th century) using China's chronological records

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Kuan-Hui Elaine; Wang, Pao-Kuan; Fan, I.-Chun; Liao, Yi-Chun; Liao, Hsiung-Ming; Pai, Pi-Ling

    2016-04-01

    Global climate change in the form of extreme, variation, and short- or mid-term fluctuation is now widely conceived to challenge the survival of the human beings and the societies. Meanwhile, improving present and future climate modeling needs a comprehensive understanding of the past climate patterns. Although historical climate modeling has gained substantive progress in recent years based on the new findings from dynamical meteorology, phenology, or paleobiology, less known are the mid- to short-term variations or lower-frequency variabilities at different temporal scale and their regional expressions. Enabling accurate historical climate modeling would heavily rely on the robustness of the dataset that could carry specific time, location, and meteorological information in the continuous temporal and spatial chains. This study thus presents an important methodological innovation to reconstruct historical climate modeling at multiple temporal and spatial scales through building a historical climate dataset, based on the Chinese chronicles compiled in a Zhang (2004) edited Compendium of Chinese Meteorological Records of the Last 3,000 Years since Zhou Dynasty (1100BC). The dataset reserves the most delicate meteorological data with accurate time, location, meteorological event, duration, and other phonological, social and economic impact information, and is carefully digitalized, coded, and geo-referenced on the Geographical Information System based maps according to Tan's (1982) historical atlas in China. The research project, beginning in January 2015, is a collaborative work among scholars across meteorology, geography, and historical linguistics disciplines. The present research findings derived from the early 100+ years of the Qing dynasty include the following. First, the analysis is based on the sampling size, denoted as cities/counties, n=1398 across the Mainland China in the observation period. Second, the frequencies of precipitation, cold

  7. Spatial and temporal variations of winter discharge under climate change: Case study of rivers in European Russia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. A. Telegina

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available An important problem in hydrology is the re-evaluation of the current resources of surface and underground waters in the context of ongoing climate changes. The main feature of the present-day changes in water regime in the major portion of European Russia (ER is the substantial increase in low-water runoff, especially in winter. In this context, some features of the spatial–temporal variations of runoff values during the winter low-water period are considered. Calculations showed that the winter runoff increased at more than 95% of hydrological gauges. Changes in the minimum and average values of runoff during winter low-water period and other characteristics are evaluated against the background of climate changes in the recent decades. The spatial and temporal variability of winter runoff in European Russia is evaluated for the first time.

  8. Temporal response of the tiger salamander (Ambystoma tigrinum to 3,000 years of climatic variation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Long Webb

    2005-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Amphibians are sensitive indicators of environmental conditions and show measurable responses, such as changes in phenology, abundance and range limits to local changes in precipitation and temperature regimes. Amphibians offer unique opportunities to study the important ecological and evolutionary implications of responses in life history characteristics to climatic change. We analyzed a late-Holocene fossil record of the Tiger Salamander (Ambystoma tigrinum for evidence of population-level changes in body size and paedomorphosis to climatic change over the last 3000 years. Results We found a significant difference in body size index between paedomorphic and metamorphic individuals during the time interval dominated by the Medieval Warm Period. There is a consistent ratio of paedomorphic to metamorphic specimens through the entire 3000 years, demonstrating that not all life history characteristics of the population were significantly altered by changes in climate on this timescale. Conclusion The fossil record of Ambystoma tigrinum we used spans an ecologically relevant timescale appropriate for understanding population and community response to projected climatic change. The population-level responses we documented are concordant with expectations based on modern environmental studies, and yield insight into population-level patterns across hundreds of generations, especially the independence of different life history characteristics. These conclusions lead us to offer general predictions about the future response of this species based on likely scenarios of climatic warming in the Rocky Mountain region.

  9. Organisational culture: variation across hospitals and connection to patient safety climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Speroff, T; Nwosu, S; Greevy, R; Weinger, M B; Talbot, T R; Wall, R J; Deshpande, J K; France, D J; Ely, E W; Burgess, H; Englebright, J; Williams, M V; Dittus, R S

    2010-12-01

    Bureaucratic organisational culture is less favourable to quality improvement, whereas organisations with group (teamwork) culture are better aligned for quality improvement. To determine if an organisational group culture shows better alignment with patient safety climate. Cross-sectional administration of questionnaires. Setting 40 Hospital Corporation of America hospitals. 1406 nurses, ancillary staff, allied staff and physicians. Competing Values Measure of Organisational Culture, Safety Attitudes Questionnaire (SAQ), Safety Climate Survey (SCSc) and Information and Analysis (IA). The Cronbach alpha was 0.81 for the group culture scale and 0.72 for the hierarchical culture scale. Group culture was positively correlated with SAQ and its subscales (from correlation coefficient r = 0.44 to 0.55, except situational recognition), ScSc (r = 0.47) and IA (r = 0.33). Hierarchical culture was negatively correlated with the SAQ scales, SCSc and IA. Among the 40 hospitals, 37.5% had a hierarchical dominant culture, 37.5% a dominant group culture and 25% a balanced culture. Group culture hospitals had significantly higher safety climate scores than hierarchical culture hospitals. The magnitude of these relationships was not affected after adjusting for provider job type and hospital characteristics. Hospitals vary in organisational culture, and the type of culture relates to the safety climate within the hospital. In combination with prior studies, these results suggest that a healthcare organisation's culture is a critical factor in the development of its patient safety climate and in the successful implementation of quality improvement initiatives.

  10. Sensitivity of intermittent streams to climate variations in the western United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eng, K.; Wolock, D.; Dettinger, M. D.

    2014-12-01

    There is a great deal of interest in streamflow changes caused by climate change because of the potential negative effects on aquatic biota and water supplies. Most previous studies have focused on perennial streams, and only a few studies have examined the effect of climate variability on intermittent streams. Our objective in this study was to evaluate the sensitivity of intermittent streams to historical variability in climate in the semi-arid regions of the western United States. This study was carried out at 45 intermittent streams that had a minimum of 45 years of daily-streamgage record by evaluating: (1) correlations among time series of flow metrics (number of zero-flow events, the average of the central 50% and largest 10% of flows) with climate, and (2) decadal changes in the seasonality and long-term trends of these flow metrics. Results showed strong associations between the low-flow metrics and historical changes in climate. The decadal analysis, in contrast, suggested no significant seasonal shifts or decade-to-decade trends in the low-flow metrics. The lack of trends or changes in seasonality is likely due to unchanged long-term patterns in precipitation over the time period examined.

  11. The role of pCO2 in astronomically-paced climate and carbon cycle variations in the Middle Miocene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Penman, D. E.; Hull, P. M.; Scher, H.; Kirtland Turner, S.; Ridgwell, A.

    2017-12-01

    The pace of Earth's background climate variability is known to be driven by the Milankovitch cycles, variations in Earth's orbital parameters and axial tilt. While the Milankovitch (orbital) theory of climate change is very nearly universally accepted, the climate system mechanisms and feedbacks responsible for amplifying orbital cycles preserved in the geologic record remain uncertain. For the late Pleistocene, the ice core-derived record of atmospheric carbon dioxide (pCO2) is strongly coupled with global temperature on orbital time scales, indicating that internal feedbacks involving the carbon cycle amplify or even cause the large changes in global temperature during orbitally driven glacial-interglacial cycles. However, for earlier time periods beyond the range of ice cores (the last 800 kyr), it is not possible to directly compare records of pCO2 to orbital climate cycles because there are no high-resolution (orbitally resolved) records of pCO2 before the Pliocene. We address this deficiency with a high-resolution ( 5-10 kyr spacing) record of planktonic foraminiferal d11B-derived surface seawater pH (as well as d13C and trace metal analyses) over a 500 kyr time window in a sedimentary record with known Milankovitch-scale climate and carbon cycle oscillations: the Middle Miocene (14.0 - 14.5 Ma) at ODP Site 926 (subtropical North Atlantic). The resulting pH record can be used to constrain atmospheric pCO2, allowing comparison of the timescale and magnitude of carbon cycle changes during a period of eccentricity-dominated variability in the response of the global climate system (the Late Pleistocene) with a period of obliquity-dominance (the middle Miocene). These new records of planktic d11B and d13C will then be used to guide simulations of astronomical climate forcing in Earth System models, resulting in refined estimates of pCO2 changes over orbital cycles and providing quantitative constraints on the mechanisms and feedbacks responsible for the

  12. Understanding and predicting climate variations in the Middle East for sustainable water resource management and development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samuels, Rana

    Water issues are a source of tension between Israelis and Palestinians. In the and region of the Middle East, water supply is not just scarce but also uncertain: It is not uncommon for annual rainfall to be as little as 60% or as much as 125% of the multiannual average. This combination of scarcity and uncertainty exacerbates the already strained economy and the already tensed political situation. The uncertainty could be alleviated if it were possible to better forecast water availability. Such forecasting is key not only for water planning and management, but also for economic policy and for political decision making. Water forecasts at multiple time scales are necessary for crop choice, aquifer operation and investments in desalination infrastructure. The unequivocal warming of the climate system adds another level of uncertainty as global and regional water cycles change. This makes the prediction of water availability an even greater challenge. Understanding the impact of climate change on precipitation can provide the information necessary for appropriate risk assessment and water planning. Unfortunately, current global circulation models (GCMs) are only able to predict long term climatic evolution at large scales but not local rainfall. The statistics of local precipitation are traditionally predicted using historical rainfall data. Obviously these data cannot anticipate changes that result from climate change. It is therefore clear that integration of the global information about climate evolution and local historical data is needed to provide the much needed predictions of regional water availability. Currently, there is no theoretical or computational framework that enables such integration for this region. In this dissertation both a conceptual framework and a computational platform for such integration are introduced. In particular, suite of models that link forecasts of climatic evolution under different CO2 emissions scenarios to observed rainfall

  13. Where the wild things are: Seasonal variation in caribou distribution in relation to climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philippa McNeil

    2005-05-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we develop a method to analyse the relationships between seasonal caribou distribution and climate, to estimate how climatic conditions affect interactions between humans and caribou, and ultimately to predict patterns of distribution relative to climate change. Satellite locations for the Porcupine (Rangifer tarandus granti and Bathurst (R. t. groenlandicus caribou herds were analysed for eight ecologically-defined seasons. For each season, two levels of a key environmental factor influencing caribou distribution were identified, as well as the best climate data available to indicate the factor's annual state. Satellite locations were grouped according to the relevant combination of season and environmental factor. Caribou distributions were compared for opposing environmental factors; this comparison was undertaken relative to hunting access for the Porcupine Herd and relative to exposure to mining activity for the Bathurst Herd. Expected climate trends suggest an overall increase in access to Porcupine caribou for Aklavik (NWT hunters during the winter and rut seasons, for Venetie (Alaska hunters during midsummer and fall migration and for Arctic Village (Alaska during midsummer. Arctic Village may experience reduced availability with early snowfalls in the fall, but we expect there to be little directional shift in the spring migration patterns. For the Bathurst Herd, we expect that fewer caribou would be exposed to the mines during the winter, while more caribou would be exposed to the combined Ekati and Diavik mining zone in the early summer and to the Lupin-Jericho mining zone during the fall migration. If changes in climate cause an increased presence of caribou in the mining sites, monitoring and mitigation measures may need to be intensified.

  14. The impact of climatic variations on the reproductive success of Gentiana lutea L. in a Mediterranean mountain area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cuena-Lombraña, Alba; Fois, Mauro; Fenu, Giuseppe; Cogoni, Donatella; Bacchetta, Gianluigi

    2018-03-01

    Increases in temperature have been predicted and reported for the Mediterranean mountain ranges due to global warming and this phenomenon is expected to have profound consequences on biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. We hereby present the case of Gentiana lutea L. subsp. lutea, a rhizomatous long-lived plant living in Central-Southern Europe, which is at the edge of its ecological and distributional range in Sardinia. Concretely, we analysed the reproductive success experienced during three phenological cycles (2013/2014, 2014/2015 and 2015/2016) in four representative populations, with particular attention to the phenological cycle of 2014/2015, which has been recorded as one of the warmest periods of the last decades. The Smirnov-Grubbs test was used to evaluate differences in temperature and precipitation regimes among historical data and the analysed years, while the Kruskal-Wallis followed by the Wilcoxon test was used to measure differences between anthesis and reproductive performances among cycles and populations. In addition, generalised linear models were carried out to check relationships between climate variables and reproductive performance. Significant differences among climate variables and analysed cycles were highlighted, especially for maximum and mean temperatures. Such variations determined a non-flowering stage in two of the four analysed populations in 2014/2015 and significant differences of further five reproductive traits among cycles. These results confirmed that in current unstable climatic conditions, which are particularly evident in seasonal climates, reproductive success can be a sensitive and easily observable indicator of climatic anomalies. Considering the importance of this issue and the ease and cost-effectiveness of reproductive success monitoring, we argue that research in this sense can be a supporting tool for the enhancement of future crucial targets such as biodiversity conservation and the mitigation of global

  15. Direct and indirect effects of climatic variations on the interannual variability in net ecosystem exchange across terrestrial ecosystems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Junjiong Shao

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Climatic variables not only directly affect the interannual variability (IAV in net ecosystem exchange of CO2 (NEE but also indirectly drive it by changing the physiological parameters. Identifying these direct and indirect paths can reveal the underlying mechanisms of carbon (C dynamics. In this study, we applied a path analysis using flux data from 65 sites to quantify the direct and indirect climatic effects on IAV in NEE and to evaluate the potential relationships among the climatic variables and physiological parameters that represent physiology and phenology of ecosystems. We found that the maximum photosynthetic rate was the most important factor for the IAV in gross primary productivity (GPP, which was mainly induced by the variation in vapour pressure deficit. For ecosystem respiration (RE, the most important drivers were GPP and the reference respiratory rate. The biome type regulated the direct and indirect paths, with distinctive differences between forests and non-forests, evergreen needleleaf forests and deciduous broadleaf forests, and between grasslands and croplands. Different paths were also found among wet, moist and dry ecosystems. However, the climatic variables can only partly explain the IAV in physiological parameters, suggesting that the latter may also result from other biotic and disturbance factors. In addition, the climatic variables related to NEE were not necessarily the same as those related to GPP and RE, indicating the emerging difficulty encountered when studying the IAV in NEE. Overall, our results highlight the contribution of certain physiological parameters to the IAV in C fluxes and the importance of biome type and multi-year water conditions, which should receive more attention in future experimental and modelling research.

  16. The Spatiotemporal Variations of Runoff in the Yangtze River Basin under Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Xiao, Ziwei; Shi, Peng; Jiang, Peng; Hu, Jianwei; Qu, Simin; Chen, Xingyu; Chen, Yingbing; Dai, Yunqiu; Wang, Jianjin

    2018-01-01

    A better understanding of the runoff variations contributes to a better utilization of water resources and water conservancy planning. In this paper, we analyzed the runoff changes in the Yangtze River Basin (YRB) including the spatiotemporal characteristics of intra-annual variation, the trend, the mutation point, and the period of annual runoff using various statistical methods. We also investigated how changes in the precipitation and temperature could impact on runoff. We found that the i...

  17. Flow variation in Astore river under assumed glaciated extents due to climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Naeem, U.A.

    2012-01-01

    Various researchers have concluded the existence of many glaciers in doubt by the end of this century due to global warming phenomenon. The great Himalayas are also under such stress. The recent acceleration in rainfall pattern resulted the ever worst destruction due to floods (2010) in Pakistan. Many Watershed models, capable of incorporating the climate change scenarios have been developed in this regard to predict the future flows. But it is not easy to select the most appropriate model for a particular watershed to get the best results. In this regard. the paper is an effort where the analysis has been made on Astore Watershed, Pakistan, by considering the model results obtained from the three watershed models i.e. UBC Watershed Model, HBV-Met and HBV-PRECIS. The results are obtained by considering different glaciated extents of 100%, 50% and 0% under future climate scenario (SRES A2), simulated by PRECIS Regional Climate Model for (2071-2100). For changed climate scenario, discharges for the simulations at 100% reduction in glaciated area were -72%, -15% and-46% for HBV-Met, HBV-PRECIS and UBC Watershed Model respectively. (author)

  18. Signal and noise in Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) observed surface mass variations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schrama, E.J.O.; Wouters, B.; Lavallée, D.A.

    2007-01-01

    The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) product used for this study consists of 43 monthly potential coefficient sets released by the GRACE science team which are used to generate surface mass thickness grids expressed as equivalent water heights (EQWHs). We optimized both the smoothing

  19. Variations and trends of terrestrial NPP and its relation to climate

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Considering global climate change, near surface temperature is the major factor affecting the terrestrial ecosystem, followed by the precipitation. This means terrestrial ecosystem NPP is more closely related to near surface temperature than precipitation. Between 1976 and 2005, NPP shows an obvious increasing temporal ...

  20. Temporal variation of climate in the high-elevation páramo of Antisana, Ecuador

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Sklenář, P.; Kučerová, Andrea; Macková, Jana; Macek, P.

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 38, č. 1 (2015), s. 67-78 ISSN 0391-9838 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA601110702 Institutional support: RVO:67985939 ; RVO:60077344 Keywords : Mountain climate * Super - páramo * Equatorial And es Subject RIV: EF - Botanics Impact factor: 0.641, year: 2015

  1. EFFECTS OF HUMAN IMPACTS AND CLIMATE VARIATION ON FORESTS: THE RIETI BASIN SINCE MEDIEVAL TIME

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Mensing

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available A number of recent paleoenvironmental studies have argued that abrupt changes in climate have been the primary cause for societal collapse. Many social scientists, including anthropologists and environmental historians, reject environmental explanations as deterministic and overly simplistic. They argue that socio-political decisions contribute to environmental change and that efforts to study societal vulnerability within a human-environment system must include analysis of complex social structures. There is a gap in our understanding of how past societies responded to climate change because there are very few interdisciplinary studies that integrate both physical and behavioral sciences in paleoenvironmental reconstructions. While there is a general sense that modern societies are more insulated than pre-industrial societies from the effects of climate change, this may not prove to be true. A more complete understanding of how both natural and human-caused changes have affected the environment in the past can potentially guide decisions aimed at promoting future sustainability. Here we present a project funded by the United States National Science Foundation that will explicitly integrate paleoenvironmental reconstruction with socioeconomic history in a local context to identify linkages between social and environmental change associated with climate variability.

  2. Solar activity influence on climatic variations of stratosphere and mesosphere in mid-latitudes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taubenheim, J.; Entzian, G.; Voncossart, G.

    1989-01-01

    The direct modulation of temperature of the mid-latitude mesosphere by the solar-cycle EUV variation, which leads to greater heat input at higher solar activity, is well established. Middle atmosphere temperature modulation by the solar cycle is independently confirmed by the variation of reflection heights of low frequency radio waves in the lower ionosphere, which are regularly monitored over about 30 years. As explained elsewhere in detail, these reflection heights depend on the geometric altitude of a certain isobaric surface (near 80 k), and on the solar ionizing Lyman-alpha radiation flux. Knowing the solar cycle variation of Lyman-alpha how much the measured reflection heights would be lowered with the transition from solar minimum to maximum can be calculated, if the vertical baric structure of the neutral atmosphere would remain unchanged. Any discrepancy between expected and observed height change must be explained by an uplifting of the isobaric level from solar minimum to maximum, caused by the temperature rise in the mesosphere. By integrating the solar cycle temperature changes over the height region of the middle atmosphere, and assuming that the lower boundary (tropopause) has no solar cycle variation, the magnitude of this uplifting can be estimated. It is given for the Lidar-derived and for the rocket-measured temperature variations. Comparison suggests that the real amplitude of the solar cycle temperature variation in the mesosphere is underestimated when using the rocket data, but probably overestimated with the Lidar data

  3. A Energy Balance Analysis of the Climate Sensitivity to Variations in the Rate of Upwelling in the World Oceans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morantine, Michael Creighton

    -scale to be the source of the dynamic interaction responsible for this abrupt climatic event. The process employed in the dimension reduction used in the formulation of lower-order EBM's will be illustrated through the development of the equations, pointing out the inherent assumptions which must be made when developing one- and two-dimensional models as they are required. One -, two- and three-dimensional energy balance models will be analyzed and the results of climate sensitivity to upwelling variations will be presented graphically for each case.

  4. Seasonal temperature variation influences climate suitability for dengue, chikungunya, and Zika transmission.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huber, John H; Childs, Marissa L; Caldwell, Jamie M; Mordecai, Erin A

    2018-05-01

    Dengue, chikungunya, and Zika virus epidemics transmitted by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes have recently (re)emerged and spread throughout the Americas, Southeast Asia, the Pacific Islands, and elsewhere. Understanding how environmental conditions affect epidemic dynamics is critical for predicting and responding to the geographic and seasonal spread of disease. Specifically, we lack a mechanistic understanding of how seasonal variation in temperature affects epidemic magnitude and duration. Here, we develop a dynamic disease transmission model for dengue virus and Aedes aegypti mosquitoes that integrates mechanistic, empirically parameterized, and independently validated mosquito and virus trait thermal responses under seasonally varying temperatures. We examine the influence of seasonal temperature mean, variation, and temperature at the start of the epidemic on disease dynamics. We find that at both constant and seasonally varying temperatures, warmer temperatures at the start of epidemics promote more rapid epidemics due to faster burnout of the susceptible population. By contrast, intermediate temperatures (24-25°C) at epidemic onset produced the largest epidemics in both constant and seasonally varying temperature regimes. When seasonal temperature variation was low, 25-35°C annual average temperatures produced the largest epidemics, but this range shifted to cooler temperatures as seasonal temperature variation increased (analogous to previous results for diurnal temperature variation). Tropical and sub-tropical cities such as Rio de Janeiro, Fortaleza, and Salvador, Brazil; Cali, Cartagena, and Barranquilla, Colombia; Delhi, India; Guangzhou, China; and Manila, Philippines have mean annual temperatures and seasonal temperature ranges that produced the largest epidemics. However, more temperate cities like Shanghai, China had high epidemic suitability because large seasonal variation offset moderate annual average temperatures. By accounting for seasonal

  5. Seasonal temperature variation influences climate suitability for dengue, chikungunya, and Zika transmission.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John H Huber

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Dengue, chikungunya, and Zika virus epidemics transmitted by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes have recently (reemerged and spread throughout the Americas, Southeast Asia, the Pacific Islands, and elsewhere. Understanding how environmental conditions affect epidemic dynamics is critical for predicting and responding to the geographic and seasonal spread of disease. Specifically, we lack a mechanistic understanding of how seasonal variation in temperature affects epidemic magnitude and duration. Here, we develop a dynamic disease transmission model for dengue virus and Aedes aegypti mosquitoes that integrates mechanistic, empirically parameterized, and independently validated mosquito and virus trait thermal responses under seasonally varying temperatures. We examine the influence of seasonal temperature mean, variation, and temperature at the start of the epidemic on disease dynamics. We find that at both constant and seasonally varying temperatures, warmer temperatures at the start of epidemics promote more rapid epidemics due to faster burnout of the susceptible population. By contrast, intermediate temperatures (24-25°C at epidemic onset produced the largest epidemics in both constant and seasonally varying temperature regimes. When seasonal temperature variation was low, 25-35°C annual average temperatures produced the largest epidemics, but this range shifted to cooler temperatures as seasonal temperature variation increased (analogous to previous results for diurnal temperature variation. Tropical and sub-tropical cities such as Rio de Janeiro, Fortaleza, and Salvador, Brazil; Cali, Cartagena, and Barranquilla, Colombia; Delhi, India; Guangzhou, China; and Manila, Philippines have mean annual temperatures and seasonal temperature ranges that produced the largest epidemics. However, more temperate cities like Shanghai, China had high epidemic suitability because large seasonal variation offset moderate annual average temperatures. By accounting

  6. Regional variations in the health, environmental, and climate benefits of wind and solar generation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siler-Evans, Kyle; Azevedo, Inês Lima; Morgan, M Granger; Apt, Jay

    2013-07-16

    When wind or solar energy displace conventional generation, the reduction in emissions varies dramatically across the United States. Although the Southwest has the greatest solar resource, a solar panel in New Jersey displaces significantly more sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and particulate matter than a panel in Arizona, resulting in 15 times more health and environmental benefits. A wind turbine in West Virginia displaces twice as much carbon dioxide as the same turbine in California. Depending on location, we estimate that the combined health, environmental, and climate benefits from wind or solar range from $10/MWh to $100/MWh, and the sites with the highest energy output do not yield the greatest social benefits in many cases. We estimate that the social benefits from existing wind farms are roughly 60% higher than the cost of the Production Tax Credit, an important federal subsidy for wind energy. However, that same investment could achieve greater health, environmental, and climate benefits if it were differentiated by region.

  7. The enhanced greenhouse signal versus natural variations in observed climate time series: a statistical approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schoenwiese, C D [J.W. Goethe Univ., Frankfurt (Germany). Inst. for Meteorology and Geophysics

    1996-12-31

    It is a well-known fact that human activities lead to an atmospheric concentration increase of some IR-active trace gases (greenhouse gases GHG) and that this influence enhances the `greenhouse effect`. However, there are major quantitative and regional uncertainties in the related climate model projections and the observational data reflect the whole complex of both anthropogenic and natural forcing of the climate system. This contribution aims at the separation of the anthropogenic enhanced greenhouse signal in observed global surface air temperature data versus other forcing using statistical methods such as multiple (multiforced) regressions and neural networks. The competitive natural forcing considered are volcanic and solar activity, in addition the ENSO (El Nino/Southern Oscillation) mechanism. This analysis will be extended also to the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) and anthropogenic sulfate formation in the troposphere

  8. CO2 induced climatic change and spectral variations in the outgoing terrestrial infrared radiation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charlock, T. P.

    1984-01-01

    The published temperature changes produced in general circulation model simulations of CO2 induced climate modification are used to compute the top of the atmosphere, clear sky outgoing infrared radiance changes expected for doubled CO2. A significant wavenumber shift is produced, with less radiance emerging in the 500-800 per cm (20.0-12.5 micron) CO2 band and with more emerging in the 800-1200 per cm (12.5-8.3 micron) window. The effect varies greatly with latitude. The radiance shift in the 2300 per cm (4.3 micron) region is of the order of 10-30 percent for doubled CO2. It is suggested that the 2300 per cm region be carefully monitored as an aid in detecting the climatic effects of increasing CO2. The change in the wavenumber-integrated radiant exitance is at most a few percent.

  9. The enhanced greenhouse signal versus natural variations in observed climate time series: a statistical approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schoenwiese, C.D. [J.W. Goethe Univ., Frankfurt (Germany). Inst. for Meteorology and Geophysics

    1995-12-31

    It is a well-known fact that human activities lead to an atmospheric concentration increase of some IR-active trace gases (greenhouse gases GHG) and that this influence enhances the `greenhouse effect`. However, there are major quantitative and regional uncertainties in the related climate model projections and the observational data reflect the whole complex of both anthropogenic and natural forcing of the climate system. This contribution aims at the separation of the anthropogenic enhanced greenhouse signal in observed global surface air temperature data versus other forcing using statistical methods such as multiple (multiforced) regressions and neural networks. The competitive natural forcing considered are volcanic and solar activity, in addition the ENSO (El Nino/Southern Oscillation) mechanism. This analysis will be extended also to the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) and anthropogenic sulfate formation in the troposphere

  10. Basin-wide variations in Amazon forest structure and function are mediated by both soils and climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quesada, C. A.; Phillips, O. L.; Schwarz, M.; Czimczik, C. I.; Baker, T. R.; Patiño, S.; Fyllas, N. M.; Hodnett, M. G.; Herrera, R.; Almeida, S.; Alvarez Dávila, E.; Arneth, A.; Arroyo, L.; Chao, K. J.; Dezzeo, N.; Erwin, T.; di Fiore, A.; Higuchi, N.; Honorio Coronado, E.; Jimenez, E. M.; Killeen, T.; Lezama, A. T.; Lloyd, G.; López-González, G.; Luizão, F. J.; Malhi, Y.; Monteagudo, A.; Neill, D. A.; Núñez Vargas, P.; Paiva, R.; Peacock, J.; Peñuela, M. C.; Peña Cruz, A.; Pitman, N.; Priante Filho, N.; Prieto, A.; Ramírez, H.; Rudas, A.; Salomão, R.; Santos, A. J. B.; Schmerler, J.; Silva, N.; Silveira, M.; Vásquez, R.; Vieira, I.; Terborgh, J.; Lloyd, J.

    2012-06-01

    Forest structure and dynamics vary across the Amazon Basin in an east-west gradient coincident with variations in soil fertility and geology. This has resulted in the hypothesis that soil fertility may play an important role in explaining Basin-wide variations in forest biomass, growth and stem turnover rates. Soil samples were collected in a total of 59 different forest plots across the Amazon Basin and analysed for exchangeable cations, carbon, nitrogen and pH, with several phosphorus fractions of likely different plant availability also quantified. Physical properties were additionally examined and an index of soil physical quality developed. Bivariate relationships of soil and climatic properties with above-ground wood productivity, stand-level tree turnover rates, above-ground wood biomass and wood density were first examined with multivariate regression models then applied. Both forms of analysis were undertaken with and without considerations regarding the underlying spatial structure of the dataset. Despite the presence of autocorrelated spatial structures complicating many analyses, forest structure and dynamics were found to be strongly and quantitatively related to edaphic as well as climatic conditions. Basin-wide differences in stand-level turnover rates are mostly influenced by soil physical properties with variations in rates of coarse wood production mostly related to soil phosphorus status. Total soil P was a better predictor of wood production rates than any of the fractionated organic- or inorganic-P pools. This suggests that it is not only the immediately available P forms, but probably the entire soil phosphorus pool that is interacting with forest growth on longer timescales. A role for soil potassium in modulating Amazon forest dynamics through its effects on stand-level wood density was also detected. Taking this into account, otherwise enigmatic variations in stand-level biomass across the Basin were then accounted for through the

  11. Assessing the Impacts of Decadal Socio-Agro-Hydro Climatic Variations on Agricultural Vulnerability over India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohanty, M. P.; Sharma, T.; Ghosh, S.; Karmakar, S.

    2017-12-01

    Among both rice and wheat producing countries, India holds one of the major global shares in terms of production. However, with rising population, economic variability, and increasing food demand, it has become indispensable to strategically assess the food security of the nation, particularly under changing climatic conditions. This can be achieved by improving knowledge on the impacts of climate change on crop growth and yield through understanding the current status of agricultural vulnerability and quantifying its decadal changes. The present research focuses on assessing the observed decadal changes in agricultural vulnerability over India, at a district-scale. In the study, the deliberation of multiple climatic, hydrologic, agricultural indicators will majorly facilitate evaluating their direct/indirect influence on the crop production. In addition, a set of socio-economic indicators will also be considered to understand the attribution of these factors on the change in agricultural vulnerability. Here, these indicators will be integrated into a multivariate data envelopment analysis (DEA) framework to derive relative efficiency of each unit or district in crop production, which will be further transformed into a well-grounded agricultural vulnerability map. It has become essential to understand the influence of these indicators on agriculture, given that the extended periods of excessive/no rainfall or high/low temperature can alter the water cycle and hence cause stress on the agroecosystem. Likewise, change in the population density, main and marginal cultivators, main and marginal agriculture labours, improvement in management practices, or increase in power supply for agricultural use, can directly affect the food security of the region. Hence, this study will undoubtedly assist the decision-makers/strategists by highlighting the agriculturally vulnerable regions over India. Consequently, it will reassure the farmers to define bottom-up approaches in

  12. Nonlinear Variations of Net Primary Productivity and Its Relationship with Climate and Vegetation Phenology, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jian Yang

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Net primary productivity (NPP is an important component of the terrestrial carbon cycle. In this study, NPP was estimated based on two models and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spaectroradiometer (MODIS data. The spatiotemporal patterns of NPP and the correlations with climate factors and vegetation phenology were then analyzed. Our results showed that NPP derived from MODIS performed well in China. Spatially, NPP decreased from the southeast toward the northwest. Temporally, NPP showed a nonlinear increasing trend at a national scale, but the magnitude became slow after 2004. At a regional scale, NPP in Northern China and the Tibetan Plateau showed a nonlinear increasing trend, while the NPP decreased in most areas of Southern China. The decreases in NPP were more than offset by the increases. At the biome level, all vegetation types displayed an increasing trend, except for shrub and evergreen broad forests (EBF. Moreover, a turning point year occurred for all vegetation types, except for EBF. Generally, climatic factors and Length of Season were all positively correlated with the NPP, while the relationships were much more diverse at a regional level. The direct effect of solar radiation on the NPP was larger (0.31 than precipitation (0.25 and temperature (0.07. Our results indicated that China could mitigate climate warming at a regional and/or global scale to some extent during the time period of 2001–2014.

  13. The effects of changing solar activity on climate: contributions from palaeoclimatological studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Engels Stefan

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Natural climate change currently acts in concert with human-induced changes in the climate system. To disentangle the natural variability in the climate system and the human-induced effects on the global climate, a critical analysis of climate change in the past may offer a better understanding of the processes that drive the global climate system. In this review paper, we present palaeoclimatological evidence for the past influence of solar variability on Earth’s climate, highlighting the effects of solar forcing on a range of timescales. On a decadal timescale, instrumental measurements as well as historical records show the effects of the 11-year Schwabe cycle on climate. The variation in total solar irradiance that is associated with a Schwabe cycle is only ~1 W m−2 between a solar minimum and a maximum, but winter and spring temperatures on the Northern Hemisphere show a response even to this small-scale variability. There is a large body of evidence from palaeoclimatic reconstructions that shows the influence of solar activity on a centennial to millennial timescale. We highlight a period of low solar activity starting at 2800 years before present when Europe experienced a shift to colder and wetter climate conditions. The spatial pattern of climate change that can be recognized in the palaeoclimatological data is in line with the suggested pattern of climate change as simulated by climate models. Millennial-scale climate oscillations can be recognized in sediment records from the Atlantic Ocean as well as in records of lake-level fluctuations in southeastern France. These oscillations coincide with variation in 14C production as recognized in the atmospheric 14C record (which is a proxy-record for solar activity, suggesting that Earth’s climate is sensitive to changes in solar activity on a millennial timescale as well.

  14. Holocene vegetation and climatic variations in Central India: A study based on multiproxy evidences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chauhan, M. S.; Sharma, Anupam; Phartiyal, Binita; Kumar, Kamlesh

    2013-11-01

    Palynology, texture, mineralogy, geochemistry, and magnetic susceptibility analysis of a 2 m deep sediment core from Padauna Swamp, southeastern Madhya Pradesh infers that between 8600 and 7500 cal yr BP a warm and relatively less-humid climate prevailed with open tree-savannahs dominated by grasses followed by sedges, Artemisia and members of Chenopodiaceae/Amaranthaceae with scanty trees viz., Schrebera, Aegle marmelos and Sterculia urens. This is well supported by lower organic to carbonate carbon ratio, coarser texture having relatively low CIA and magnetic susceptibility values and presence of some primary minerals. Between 7500 and 6250 cal yr BP the tree-savannahs were succeeded by open mixed deciduous forests with the invasion of a few more trees viz., Madhuca indica, Holoptelea, Emblica officinalis, Mitragyna parvifolia and members of Anacardiaceae in response to onset of a warm and humid climate. A considerable rise in organic carbon generated from the degradation of plentiful biomass along with increase in clay content with signs of kaolinite and increase in immobile over mobile elements with slightly higher CIA and magnetic susceptibility values also suggest climatic amelioration. The presence of ruderal plants such as Artemisia, Cannabis sativa and Cheno/Am further infers initiation of human activities in the region. Between 6250 and 2800 cal yr BP, the mixed deciduous forests became more diverse and dense, subduing grasses and other herbaceous elements. Sporadic incursion of Shorea robusta (Sal) in forest floristic was recorded around 5000 cal yr BP. The overall change in the vegetation mosaic reflects that a warm and more-humid climate prevailed in the region, probably on account of invigoration of southwest monsoon. This observation is further corroborated by other proxy data showing a spurt in organic/inorganic carbon ratio, increase in clay content with matured mineralogy, significantly higher CIA and magnetic susceptibility values. Since 2800 cal

  15. Water stable isotopes: application to the water cycle and climate variations study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Risi, C.

    2009-12-01

    The stable isotopic composition of water (H 2 16 , HDO, H 2 18 , H 2 17 ) is a promising tracer of the present day water cycle and past climates. While the isotopic composition recorded in polar ice core have long been used to reconstruct past temperatures, however, what controls the isotopic composition of the tropical precipitation is more complex. The goal of this thesis is thus to better understand the processes that affect the isotopic composition of tropical precipitation and atmospheric water, more particularly in the tropics. Since most of the tropical precipitation arises from atmospheric convection, and most isotopic archives are on land, we focus more particularly on the impact of convective and land surface processes. In turn, what can be learned about convection and land surface processes using isotopic measurements? Can they help constrain their representation in models? At the inter-annual to climate change scale, what information about the tropical climate variability is recorded in isotopic signals observed in archives? First, we investigate the influence of convection on water stable isotopes. We use both (1) numerical modeling, with a hierarchy of models (single column model, two-dimensional model of squall lines, general circulation model) and (2) data analysis, using isotopic data from rain collected in the Sahel during the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis campaign, at the event and intra-event scales. These studies highlight the strong impact of convection on the precipitation composition, and stress the importance of rain evaporation and convective or meso-scale subsidence in controlling the rain isotopic composition. Convection also plays an important role on isotopic profiles in the upper troposphere-lower stratosphere. Second, we study what information about climatic variability is recorded by water stable isotopes in precipitation. We analyze simulations of present day and past climates with LMDZ, and evaluate to what extent

  16. Decadal Variation in Surface Characteristics over Xinjiang, Western China, from T/P Altimetry Backscatter Coefficients: Evidence of Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jinyun Guo

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The backscatter coefficient, known as sigma0, is an important measurement of satellite radar altimetry and a key parameter for land altimetry because of its close relationship with the physical properties and geometric features of land coverage under global/regional climate change effects. Using the TOPEX/Poseidon GDR-M dataset from January 1993 to December 2004, we study the spatial and temporal distribution of sigma0 at bands Ku and C over Xinjiang, western China. The results show that the sigma0 is influenced by the water distribution over land and the time evolution of sigma0 has clear seasonal changes. River basins or deserts are classified over the spatial distribution based on different sigma0 values. For example, high sigma0 values are found in the Tarim River Basin and low values are found in the Taklimakan Desert. The periodic components of sigma0 time series are determined using the fast Fourier transformation method. The annual variation is the dominating cycle and the semi-annual variation is the secondary signal. The amplitudes of sigma0 time series at bands Ku and C are also given and most areas have quite low amplitudes except for the Tarim River Basin. Several areas including the Tarim River Basin, Tianshan Mountain and Taklimakan Desert are selected for sigma0 time series spacial analysis to discuss the reasons for variations in sigma0. The main factors are precipitation and vegetation growth, which are affected by the global/regional climate change. The correlation between the brightness temperature, which is related to the water-vapor content in the atmosphere measured by TMR at the 21 GHz channel and sigma0 at two bands, is analyzed.

  17. The Variations of Land Surface Phenology in Northeast China and Its Responses to Climate Change from 1982 to 2013

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jianjun Zhao

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Northeast China is located at high northern latitudes and is a typical region of relatively high sensitivity to global climate change. Studies of the land surface phenology in Northeast China and its response to climate change are important for understanding global climate change. In this study, the land surface phenology parameters were calculated using the third generation dataset from the Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS 3g that was collected from 1982 to 2013 were estimated to analyze the variations of the land surface phenology in Northeast China at different scales and to discuss the internal relationships between phenology and climate change. We examined the phonological changes of all ecoregions. The average start of the growing season (SOS did not exhibit a significant trend throughout the study area; however, the end of the growing season (EOS was significantly delayed by 4.1 days or 0.13 days/year (p < 0.05 over the past 32 years. The SOS for the Hulunbuir Plain, Greater Khingan Mountains and Lesser Khingan Mountains was earlier, and the SOS for the Sanjing, Songnen and Liaohe Plains was later. In addition, the EOS of the Greater Khingan Mountains, Lesser Khingan Mountains and Changbai Mountains was later than the EOS of the Liaohe Plain. The spring temperature had the greatest impact on the SOS. Precipitation had an insignificant impact on forest SOS and a relatively large impact on grassland SOS. The EOS was affected by both temperature and precipitation. Furthermore, although temperature had a lag effect on the EOS, no significant lag effect was observed for the SOS.

  18. Evidences of climatic variations during Late Pleistocene- Holocene in the eastern Bay of Bengal

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Chauhan, O.S; Borole, D.V.; Gujar, A; Mascarenhas, A; Mislankar, P.G.; Rao, Ch.M.

    Based upon the variations of clay minerals, sediment texture, heavy mineral assemblage and sup(230)Th excess in the Late Pleistocene sediments of a hemipelagic core from the eastern Bay of Bengal (2713 m water depth), 35 cm and 73-78 cm levels...

  19. Effects of maternal characteristics and climatic variation on birth masses of Alaskan caribou

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adams, Layne G.

    2005-01-01

    Understanding factors that influence birth mass of mammals provides insights to nutritional trade-offs made by females to optimize their reproduction, growth, and survival. I evaluated variation in birth mass of caribou (Rangifer tarandus) in central Alaska relative to maternal characteristics (age, body mass, cohort, and nutritional condition as influenced by winter severity) during 11 years with substantial variation in winter snowfall. Snowfall during gestation was the predominant factor explaining variation in birth masses, influencing birth mass inversely and through interactions with maternal age and lactation status. Maternal age effects were noted for females ≤ 5 years old, declining in magnitude with each successive age class. Birth mass as a proportion of autumn maternal mass was inversely related to winter snowfall, even though there was no decrease in masses of adult females in late winter associated with severe winters. I found no evidence of a hypothesized intergenerational effect of lower birth masses for offspring of females born after severe winters. Caribou produce relatively small offspring but provide exceptional lactation support for those that survive. Conservative maternal investment before parturition may represent an optimal reproductive strategy given that caribou experience stochastic variation in winter severity during gestation, uncertainty of environmental conditions surrounding the birth season, and intense predation on neonates.

  20. Simulation of historic glacier variations with a simple climate-glacier model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oerlemans, J.

    1988-01-01

    Glacier variations during the last few centuries have shown a marked coherence over the globe. Characteristic features are the maximum stand somewhere in the middle of the nineteenth century, and the steady retreat afterwards (with some minor interrruptions depending on the particular region).

  1. Habitat area and climate stability determine geographical variation in plant species range sizes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Morueta-Holme, Naia; Enquist, Brian J.; McGill, Brian J.

    2013-01-01

    Despite being a fundamental aspect of biodiversity, little is known about what controls species range sizes. This is especially the case for hyperdiverse organisms such as plants. We use the largest botanical data set assembled to date to quantify geographical variation in range size for ~85,000 ...

  2. Climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fellous, J.L.

    2005-02-01

    This book starts with a series of about 20 preconceived ideas about climate and climatic change and analyses each of them in the light of the present day knowledge. Using this approach, it makes a status of the reality of the climatic change, of its causes and of the measures to be implemented to limit its impacts and reduce its most harmful consequences. (J.S.)

  3. How does the terrestrial carbon exchange respond to inter-annual climatic variations? A quantification based on atmospheric CO2 data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rödenbeck, Christian; Zaehle, Sönke; Keeling, Ralph; Heimann, Martin

    2018-04-01

    The response of the terrestrial net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO2 to climate variations and trends may crucially determine the future climate trajectory. Here we directly quantify this response on inter-annual timescales by building a linear regression of inter-annual NEE anomalies against observed air temperature anomalies into an atmospheric inverse calculation based on long-term atmospheric CO2 observations. This allows us to estimate the sensitivity of NEE to inter-annual variations in temperature (seen as a climate proxy) resolved in space and with season. As this sensitivity comprises both direct temperature effects and the effects of other climate variables co-varying with temperature, we interpret it as inter-annual climate sensitivity. We find distinct seasonal patterns of this sensitivity in the northern extratropics that are consistent with the expected seasonal responses of photosynthesis, respiration, and fire. Within uncertainties, these sensitivity patterns are consistent with independent inferences from eddy covariance data. On large spatial scales, northern extratropical and tropical inter-annual NEE variations inferred from the NEE-T regression are very similar to the estimates of an atmospheric inversion with explicit inter-annual degrees of freedom. The results of this study offer a way to benchmark ecosystem process models in more detail than existing effective global climate sensitivities. The results can also be used to gap-fill or extrapolate observational records or to separate inter-annual variations from longer-term trends.

  4. The impact of climate upon variation in air pollution using a synoptic climatological approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Powley, J.F.

    1991-01-01

    The Environmental Protection Agency has set national ambient air quality standards for six different pollutants: sulfur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide, ozone, total suspended particulates, nitrogen oxides, and oxidants. The goal of this study was to apply an automatic air mass-based synoptic methodology to surface weather data in order to evaluate the impact of climate on the above pollutant concentrations in Philadelphia, PA; Dallas, TX; and St. Louis, MO. A group of synoptic categories depicting the summer and winter weather in each city was developed using principal components analysis and average linkage clustering. The concentrations of the six air pollutants were then related to the synoptic weather categories. The synoptic categories and associated weather conditions exhibiting particularly high pollution concentrations were analyzed in detail. Ultimately, the procedure was validated for prediction of future pollutant levels. The results from this study support the conclusion that there is a close link between synoptic-air mass combinations and various pollutant concentrations. The climate-pollutant relationship seems to change from summer to winter in the three cities. It appears that climatic thresholds could be found for high levels of various air pollutants. Similar synoptic conditions appear to lead to high accumulations of all six pollutants, although the transportation-related pollutants showed more dependency on the level of solar radiation. These pollutants seem to be more significant in the southern city of Dallas. The synoptic methodology proved to be of assistance in developing a weather/pollution watch-warning system; such a system would be designed to signal impending synoptic conditions which could significantly raise pollutant concentrations

  5. Variation of moisture content of some varnished woods in indoor climatic conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kemal Üçüncü

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available In this study, moisture change of varnished wood of black poplar (Populus nigra and yellow pine (Pinus silvestris L. used in indoor climate conditions with central heating in Trabzon (Turkey were investigated. 300 mm length wood specimens, with cross section of 12.5 mm in tangential and in radial and with the square sections of 25mm and 50 mm, were obtained from two species grown in Kanuni Campus of the Karadeniz Technical University. In this research, un-varnished wood samples were also used for reference. The wood moisture content was determined by the weighing method, the wood equilibrium moisture content by the Hailwood-Horrobin equation, and the relative humidity in the indoor climatic conditions by humid air thermodynamic principles. As a result; it was observed that the moisture content of varnished wood samples has a strong relationship with equilibrium moisture content, temperature and relative humidity. It was found that the moisture content of varnished woods was higher than the moisture content of un-varnished woods in the same climatic conditions. It was observed that the difference between the monthly average moisture content was lower in varnished woods in proportion to un-varnished woods. According to these results, it can be indicated that it would be more appropriate to select higher moisture content in the drying of wood than the equilibrium moisture content. Such an application would also reduce drying costs. Further, it can be recommended to use varnished wood in various applications because the low change range of average moisture content can affect the swelling or shrinking of wood.

  6. Human-induced geomorphic change across environmental gradients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vanacker, V.; Molina, A.; Bellin, N.; Christl, M.

    2016-12-01

    Human-induced land cover changes are causing important adverse effects on the ecological services rendered by mountain ecosystems, and the number of case-studies of the impact of humans on soil erosion and sediment yield has mounted rapidly. Anthropogenic disturbance of natural vegetation can profoundly alter the physical, chemical and biological processes within soils. Rapid removal of topsoil during intense farming can result in an imbalance between soil production through chemical weathering and physical soil erosion, with direct implications on nutrient cycling, soil fertility and agricultural production. In this study, we present a conceptual model for assessing human-induced erosion for a wide variety of environmental settings and pose that human-induced geomorphic change cannot be assessed solely based on modern erosion rates as natural or baseline erosion rates can be important in e.g. mountainous terrain. As such, we assess the vulnerability of a given ecosystem to human-induced land cover change by quantifying the change in catchment-wide erosion rates resulting from anthropogenic changes in vegetation cover. Human-induced erosion is here approximated by the ratio of the total specific sediment yield to the natural erosional mass flux, and is dimensionless. The conceptual model is applied to three contrasting environmental settings where data on soil production, physical soil erosion and long-term denudation are available: the tropical Andes, subtropical southern Brazil, and semi-arid Spanish Cordillera. The magnitude of human-induced geomorphic change strongly differs between the three regions. The data suggest that the sensitivity to human-induced erosion is ecosystem dependent, and related to soil erosivity and potential vegetation cover disturbances as a result of human impact. It may therefore be expected that the potential for erosion regulation is larger in well-vegetated ecosystem where strong differences may exist in vegetation cover between

  7. Assessing vegetation response to climatic variations and human activities: spatiotemporal NDVI variations in the Hexi Corridor and surrounding areas from 2000 to 2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guan, Qingyu; Yang, Liqin; Guan, Wenqian; Wang, Feifei; Liu, Zeyu; Xu, Chuanqi

    2018-03-01

    Vegetation cover is a commonly used indicator for evaluating terrestrial environmental conditions, and for revealing environmental evolution and transitions. Spatiotemporal variations in the vegetation cover of the Hexi Corridor and surrounding areas from 2000 to 2010 were investigated using MODIS NDVI data, and the causes of vegetation cover changes were analyzed, considering both climatic variability and human activities. The vegetation cover of the study area increased during 2000-2010. The greenness of the vegetation showed a significant increase from the northwest to the southeast, which was similar to the spatial distribution of the annual precipitation. Variations in vegetation have a close relationship with those in precipitation within the Qilian Mountains region, but the NDVI is negatively correlated with precipitation in oasis areas. Increasing temperatures led to drought, inhibiting vegetation growth in summer; however, increasing temperatures may have also advanced and prolonged the growing periods in spring and autumn. The NDVI showed a slight degradation in March and July, primarily in the Qilian Mountains, and especially the Wushao Mountains. In March, due to low temperatures, the metabolism rate of vegetation was too slow to enable strong plant growth in high elevations of the Qilian Mountains. In July, increasing temperatures enhanced the intensity of transpiration and decreasing precipitation reduced the moisture available to plants, producing a slight degradation of vegetation in the Qilian Mountains. In May and August, the NDVI showed a significant improvement, primarily in the artificial oases and the Qilian Mountains. Abundant precipitation provided the necessary water for plant growth, and suitable temperatures increased the efficiency of photosynthesis, resulting in a significant improvement of vegetation in the Qilian Mountains. The improvement of production technologies, especially in irrigation, has been beneficial to the growth of

  8. SEASONAL VARIATIONS IN HUMAN PAROTID FLUID FLOW RATE IN A SUBTROPICAL CLIMATE.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parotid fluid was collected under conditions of very minimal stimulation from 3,868 systemically healthy young adult males over a period of two...calendar years. The study was carried out in a subtropical climate in which the only thermal discomfort resulted from the summer heat. Parotid flow rate...fall. During the summer months the mean rate of parotid flow was 0.031 ml./minute; during the winter the flow rate mean increased by 35% to 0.042 ml

  9. Community patterns of tropical tree phenology derived from Unmanned Aerial Vehicle images: intra- and interspecific variation, association with species plant traits, and response to interannual climate variation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bohlman, Stephanie; Rifai, Sami; Park, John; Dandois, Jonathan; Muller-Landau, Helene

    2017-04-01

    Phenology is a key life history trait of plant species and critical driver of ecosystem processes. There is strong evidence that phenology is shifting in temperate ecosystems in response to climate change, but tropical forest phenology remains poorly quantified and understood. A key challenge is that tropical forests contain hundreds of plant species with a wide variety of phenological patterns, which makes it difficult to collect sufficient ground-based field data to characterize individual tropical tree species phenologies. Satellite-based observations, an important source of phenology data in northern latitudes, are hindered by frequent cloud cover in the tropics. To quantify phenology over a large number of individuals and species, we collected bi-weekly images from unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in the well-studied 50-ha forest inventory plot on Barro Colorado Island, Panama. The objective of this study is to quantify inter- and intra-specific responses of tropical tree leaf phenology to environmental variation over large spatial scales and identify key environmental variables and physiological mechanisms underpinning phenological variation. Between October 2014 and December 2015 and again in May 2015, we collected a total of 35 sets of UAV images, each with continuous coverage of the 50-ha plot, where every tree ≥ 1 cm DBH is mapped. UAV imagery was corrected for exposure, orthorectified, and then processed to extract spectral, texture, and image information for individual tree crowns, which was then used as inputs for a machine learning algorithm that successfully predicted the percentages of leaf, branch, and flower cover for each tree crown (r2=0.76 between observed and predicted percent branch cover for individual tree crowns). We then quantified cumulative annual deciduousness for each crown by fitting a non-parametric curve of flexible shape to its predicted percent branch time series and calculated the area under the curve. We obtained the species

  10. Monitoring climate and man-made induced variations in terrestrial water storage (TWS) across Africa using GRACE data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmed, M. E.; Sultan, M.; Wahr, J. M.; Yan, E.; Bonin, J. A.; Chouinard, K.

    2012-12-01

    It is common practice for researchers engaged in research related to climate change to examine the temporal variations in relevant climatic parameters (e.g., temperature, precipitation) and to extract and examine drought indices reproduced from one or more such parameters. Drought indices (meteorological, agricultural and hydrological) define departures from normal conditions and are used as proxies for monitoring water availability. Many of these indices exclude significant controlling factor(s), do not work well in specific settings and regions, and often require long (≥50 yr) calibration time periods and substantial meteorological data, limiting their application in areas lacking adequate observational networks. Additional uncertainties are introduced by the models used in computing model-dependent indices. Aside from these uncertainties, none of these indices measure the variability in terrestrial water storage (TWS), a term that refers to the total vertically integrated water content in an area regardless of the reservoir in which it resides. Inter-annual trends in TWS were extracted from monthly Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data acquired (04/2002 to 08/2011) over Africa and correlated (in a GIS environment) with relevant temporal remote sensing, geologic, hydrologic, climatic, and topographic datasets. Findings include the following: (1) large sectors of Africa are undergoing statistically significant variations (+36 mm/yr to -16 mm/yr) due to natural and man-made causes; (2) warming of the tropical Atlantic ocean apparently intensified Atlantic monsoons and increased precipitation and TWS over western and central Africa's coastal plains, proximal mountainous source areas, and inland areas as far as central Chad; (3) warming in the central Indian Ocean decreased precipitation and TWS over eastern and southern Africa; (4) the high frequency of negative phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) increased precipitation and TWS over

  11. Splitting turbulence algorithm for mixing parameterization embedded in the ocean climate model. Examples of data assimilation and Prandtl number variations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moshonkin, Sergey; Gusev, Anatoly; Zalesny, Vladimir; Diansky, Nikolay

    2017-04-01

    Series of experiments were performed with a three-dimensional, free surface, sigma coordinate eddy-permitting ocean circulation model for Atlantic (from 30°S) - Arctic and Bering sea domain (0.25 degrees resolution, Institute of Numerical Mathematics Ocean Model or INMOM) using vertical grid refinement in the zone of fully developed turbulence (40 sigma-levels). The model variables are horizontal velocity components, potential temperature, and salinity as well as free surface height. For parameterization of viscosity and diffusivity, the original splitting turbulence algorithm (STA) is used when total evolutionary equations for the turbulence kinetic energy (TKE) and turbulence dissipation frequency (TDF) split into the stages of transport-diffusion and generation-dissipation. For the generation-dissipation stage the analytical solution was obtained for TKE and TDF as functions of the buoyancy and velocity shift frequencies (BF and VSF). The proposed model with STA is similar to the contemporary differential turbulence models, concerning the physical formulations. At the same time, its algorithm has high enough computational efficiency. For mixing simulation in the zone of turbulence decay, the two kind numerical experiments were carried out, as with assimilation of annual mean climatic buoyancy frequency, as with variation of Prandtl number function dependence upon the BF, VSF, TKE and TDF. The CORE-II data for 1948-2009 were used for experiments. Quality of temperature T and salinity S structure simulation is estimated by the comparison of model monthly profiles T and S averaged for 1980-2009, with T and S monthly data from the World Ocean Atlas 2013. Form of coefficients in equations for TKE and TDF on the generation-dissipation stage makes it possible to assimilate annual mean climatic buoyancy frequency in a varying degree that cardinally improves adequacy of model results to climatic data in all analyzed model domain. The numerical experiments with modified

  12. Simulated hydrologic responses to climate variations and change in the Merced, Carson, and American River basins, Sierra Nevada, California, 1900-2099 *

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dettinger, M.D.; Cayan, D.R.; Meyer, M.K.; Jeton, A.

    2004-01-01

    Hydrologic responses of river basins in the Sierra Nevada of California to historical and future climate variations and changes are assessed by simulating daily streamflow and water-balance responses to simulated climate variations over a continuous 200-yr period. The coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice-land Parallel Climate Model provides the simulated climate histories, and existing hydrologic models of the Merced, Carson, and American Rivers are used to simulate the basin responses. The historical simulations yield stationary climate and hydrologic variations through the first part of the 20th century until about 1975 when temperatures begin to warm noticeably and when snowmelt and streamflow peaks begin to occur progressively earlier within the seasonal cycle. A future climate simulated with business-as-usual increases in greenhouse-gas and aerosol radiative forcings continues those recent trends through the 21st century with an attendant +2.5??C warming and a hastening of snowmelt and streamflow within the seasonal cycle by almost a month. The various projected trends in the business-as-usual simulations become readily visible despite realistic simulated natural climatic and hydrologic variability by about 2025. In contrast to these changes that are mostly associated with streamflow timing, long-term average totals of streamflow and other hydrologic fluxes remain similar to the historical mean in all three simulations. A control simulation in which radiative forcings are held constant at 1995 levels for the 50 years following 1995 yields climate and streamflow timing conditions much like the 1980s and 1990s throughout its duration. The availability of continuous climate-change projection outputs and careful design of initial conditions and control experiments, like those utilized here, promise to improve the quality and usability of future climate-change impact assessments.

  13. Climate variations and salmonellosis in northwest Russia: a time-series analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grjibovski, A M; Bushueva, V; Boltenkov, V P; Buzinov, R V; Degteva, G N; Yurasova, E D; Nurse, J

    2013-02-01

    Associations between monthly counts of all laboratory-confirmed cases of salmonellosis in Arkhangelsk, northern Russia, from 1992 to 2008 and climatic variables with lags 0-2 were studied by three different models. We observed a linear association between the number of cases of salmonellosis and mean monthly temperature with a lag of 1 month across the whole range of temperatures. An increase of 1 °C was associated with a 2·04% [95% confidence interval (CI) 0·25-3·84], 1·84% (95% CI 0·06-3·63) and 2·32% (95% CI 0·38-4·27) increase in different models. Only one of the three models suggested an increase in the number of cases, by 0·24% (95% CI 0·02-0·46) with an increase in precipitation by 1 mm in the same month. Higher temperatures were associated with higher monthly counts of salmonellosis while the association with precipitation was less certain. The results may have implications for the future patterns of enteric infections in northern areas related to climate change.

  14. Climate variation and incidence of Ross river virus in Cairns, Australia: a time-series analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tong, S; Hu, W

    2001-01-01

    In this study we assessed the impact of climate variability on the Ross River virus (RRv) transmission and validated an epidemic-forecasting model in Cairns, Australia. Data on the RRv cases recorded between 1985 and 1996 were obtained from the Queensland Department of Health. Climate and population data were supplied by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and the Australian Bureau of Statistics, respectively. The cross-correlation function (CCF) showed that maximum temperature in the current month and rainfall and relative humidity at a lag of 2 months were positively and significantly associated with the monthly incidence of RRv, whereas relative humidity at a lag of 5 months was inversely associated with the RRv transmission. We developed autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models on the data collected between 1985 to 1994, and then validated the models using the data collected between 1995 and 1996. The results show that the relative humidity at a lag of 5 months (p < 0.001) and the rainfall at a lag of 2 months (p < 0.05) appeared to play significant roles in the transmission of RRv disease in Cairns. Furthermore, the regressive forecast curves were consistent with the pattern of actual values. PMID:11748035

  15. Regional variations in the health, environmental, and climate benefits of wind and solar generation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siler-Evans, Kyle; Azevedo, Inês Lima; Morgan, M. Granger; Apt, Jay

    2013-01-01

    When wind or solar energy displace conventional generation, the reduction in emissions varies dramatically across the United States. Although the Southwest has the greatest solar resource, a solar panel in New Jersey displaces significantly more sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and particulate matter than a panel in Arizona, resulting in 15 times more health and environmental benefits. A wind turbine in West Virginia displaces twice as much carbon dioxide as the same turbine in California. Depending on location, we estimate that the combined health, environmental, and climate benefits from wind or solar range from $10/MWh to $100/MWh, and the sites with the highest energy output do not yield the greatest social benefits in many cases. We estimate that the social benefits from existing wind farms are roughly 60% higher than the cost of the Production Tax Credit, an important federal subsidy for wind energy. However, that same investment could achieve greater health, environmental, and climate benefits if it were differentiated by region. PMID:23798431

  16. MARIOLA: A model for calculating the response of mediterranean bush ecosystem to climatic variations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Uso-Domenech, J.L.; Ramo, M.P. [Department of Mathematics, Campus de Penyeta Roja, University Jaume I, Castellon (Spain); Villacampa-Esteve, Y. [Department of Analysis and Applied Mathematics, University of Alicante (Spain); Stuebing-Martinez, G. [Department of Botany, University of Valencia (Spain); Karjalainen, T. [Faculty of Forestry, University of Joensuu (Finland)

    1995-07-01

    The paper summarizes the bush ecosystem model developed for assessing the effects of climatic change on the behaviour of mediterranean bushes assuming that temperature, humidity and rain-fall are the basic dimensions of the niche occupied by shrub species. In this context, changes in the monthly weather pattern serve only to outline the growth conditions due to the nonlinearity of response of shrubs to climatic factors. The plant-soil-atmosphere system is described by means of ordinary non-linear differential equations for the state variables: green biomass, woody biomass, the residues of green and woody biomasses, faecal detritus of mammals on the soil, and the total organic matter of the soil. The behaviour of the flow variables is described by means of equations obtained from non-linear multiple regressions from the state variables and the input variables. The model has been applied with success to the behaviour of Cistus albidus in two zones of the Province of Alicante (Spain). The data base for the parametrical locations (zone 1) and validation (zone 2) is based upon measurements taken weekly over a 2-year period. The model is used to simulate the response of this shrub to a decreasing tendency in precipitation combined with a simultaneous rise in temperature. A period of 10 years is simulated and it is observed that plants with woody biomass smaller than 85 g die between the first and the third month and other plants` biomass decreases during this period, and strongly thereafter

  17. African and Atlantic short-term climatic variations described from Meteosat water vapor channel

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Picon

    1995-07-01

    Full Text Available Pluriannual series of Meteosat-2 water vapor (WV images are used to build average maps of decadal and monthly brightness temperatures in the 6.3 µm channel. This processing is applied to all the 3-hourly scenes, clear or cloudy, for July 1983 to July 1987. The ISCCP cloudiness analyses confirm that the warmest spots in the monthly WV images correspond to scenes either clear or covered with low clouds, whereas the coldest areas correspond to scenes where cloud tops above 440 hPa frequently occur. The WV statistics are then used to characterize seasonal and interannual variations of both the ITCZ (InterTropical Convergence Zone and the warm (dry areas, corresponding to subtropical subsidence. Thanks mainly to the seasonal variations, relationships between the variations in the ITCZ and in dry subtropical areas can be studied. It is shown that, for the Meteosat sector, a wetter subtropical high troposphere is associated with an enhanced activity of the ITCZ, and vice versa. For this area where the north-south assymetry is large, the negative water vapor feedback previously proposed seems not to occur.

  18. Spatiotemporal climatic, hydrological, and environmental variations based on records of annually laminated lake sediments from northern Poland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tylmann, W.; Blanke, L.; Kinder, M.; Loewe, T.; Mayr, C.; Ohlendorf, C.; Zolitschka, B.

    2009-12-01

    In northern Poland there is the unique opportunity to compare varved lake sediment records with distinct climatic trends along a 700 km long W-E transect. Annually laminated Holocene sediment sequences from Lake Lubinskie, Lake Suminko, Lake Lazduny, and Lake Szurpily were cored for high-resolution multiproxy climate and environmental reconstruction in the framework of the Polish-German project “Northern Polish Lake Research” (NORPOLAR). First results from a 139 cm long gravity core of Lake Lazduny (53°51.4’N, 21°57.3’E) document deposition of an organic (mean organic matter: 13.9%; mean biogenic opal: 9.8%) and highly carbonaceous gyttja (mean calcite content: 61.6%). The finely laminated sediment consists of biochemical varves. Pale spring/summer layers composed of autochthonous carbonates alternate with dark fall/winter layers made of organic and minerogenic detritus. The established chronology for the last 1500 calendar-years is based on thin section analysis supported by independent radiometric dating (C-14, Pb-210). Sedimentological, geochemical and stable isotope analyses were carried out with a decadal temporal resolution. Additionally, non-destructive and high-resolution XRF scanning data reveal a rhythmic variation in the Ca content that reflects seasonal calcite deposition. Redox-sensitive elements like Fe, Mn and S are interpreted to be the response to mean winter temperatures: colder winter temperatures → extended lake ice cover → intensification of meromixis → increased Fe/Mn ratio. In turn, these parameters can be linked to NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) variability, because a negative NAO is related to colder and drier conditions in northeastern Europe. Climate variability is also mirrored by the δ13C record of the endogenic calcite fraction. In mid-latitude lakes calcite precipitation is dominated by productivity-controlled consumption of the dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) pool. Thus the δ13C record potentially provides a

  19. Geographic variation for climatic stress resistance traits in the sprintail Orchesella cincta

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bahrndorff, Simon; Holmstrup, Martin; Petersen, H.

    2006-01-01

    Multiple traits of stress resistance were investigated in the epedaphic springtail Orchesella cincta. Second generation adults from five laboratory populations were compared with respect to resistance to extreme temperatures and desiccation, and traits relevant to climatic adaptation. Populations...... were collected along a 2000-km latitudinal gradient ranging from Denmark to southern Italy and reared under the same standard laboratory conditions. Traits investigated were resistance to high and low temperature, desiccation resistance, body size and water loss rate (WLR). Results showed genetically...... based differences in resistance to high and low temperature, desiccation, WLR, water pool and body size between populations. Individuals from the most northern population had the highest desiccation-and cold shock resistance, and the lowest heat shock resistance. Females were significantly more...

  20. Explaining life history variation in a changing climate across a species' range

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Neuheimer, Anna B.; MacKenzie, Brian R.

    2014-01-01

    Timing of reproduction greatly influences offspring success and resulting population production. Explaining and predicting species' dynamics necessitates disentangling the intrinsic (genotypic) and extrinsic (climatic) factors controlling reproductive timing. Here we explore temporal and spatial...... changes in spawning time for 21 populations of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) across the species' range (40 degrees to 80 degrees N). We estimate spawning time using a physiologically relevant metric that includes information on fish thermal history (degree-days, DD). First, we estimate spawning DD among...... years (within populations) to show how recent changes in spawning time can be explained by local changes in temperature. Second, we employ spawning DD to identify temperature-independent trends in spawning time among populations that are consistent with parallel adaptive evolution and the evolutionary...

  1. Sensitivity of coral cays to climatic variations, southern Great Barrier Reef, Australia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Flood, P G

    1986-01-01

    Analysis of available wind data for the years 1962-80 from Heron Island which is located within the southern Great Barrier Reef indicates that the annual wind energy vector has oscillated within a 45 degree arc from the SSE in the early 1960's to ESE in the late 1970's. Such changes in wind direction influence the direction of propagation of the waves which mold the shape of coral sand cays in this region. Documentation is provided which shows that the variability of the shoreline positions on Erskine Island, an uninhabited vegetated sand cays reflects this change. The implication is that contemporary shoreline erosion on Heron Island is not caused by the development associated with the tourist resort there. It is a symptom of the change in the propagation direction of the wind-induced waves which is related to long-term climatic change.

  2. Leaf nitrogen from first principles: field evidence for adaptive variation with climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Ning; Prentice, Iain Colin; Evans, Bradley J.; Caddy-Retalic, Stefan; Lowe, Andrew J.; Wright, Ian J.

    2017-01-01

    Nitrogen content per unit leaf area (Narea) is a key variable in plant functional ecology and biogeochemistry. Narea comprises a structural component, which scales with leaf mass per area (LMA), and a metabolic component, which scales with Rubisco capacity. The co-ordination hypothesis, as implemented in LPJ and related global vegetation models, predicts that Rubisco capacity should be directly proportional to irradiance but should decrease with increases in ci : ca and temperature because the amount of Rubisco required to achieve a given assimilation rate declines with increases in both. We tested these predictions using LMA, leaf δ13C, and leaf N measurements on complete species assemblages sampled at sites on a north-south transect from tropical to temperate Australia. Partial effects of mean canopy irradiance, mean annual temperature, and ci : ca (from δ13C) on Narea were all significant and their directions and magnitudes were in line with predictions. Over 80 % of the variance in community-mean (ln) Narea was accounted for by these predictors plus LMA. Moreover, Narea could be decomposed into two components, one proportional to LMA (slightly steeper in N-fixers), and the other to Rubisco capacity as predicted by the co-ordination hypothesis. Trait gradient analysis revealed ci : ca to be perfectly plastic, while species turnover contributed about half the variation in LMA and Narea. Interest has surged in methods to predict continuous leaf-trait variation from environmental factors, in order to improve ecosystem models. Coupled carbon-nitrogen models require a method to predict Narea that is more realistic than the widespread assumptions that Narea is proportional to photosynthetic capacity, and/or that Narea (and photosynthetic capacity) are determined by N supply from the soil. Our results indicate that Narea has a useful degree of predictability, from a combination of LMA and ci : ca - themselves in part environmentally determined - with Rubisco activity

  3. Fluvial response to climate variations and anthropogenic perturbations for the Ebro River, Spain in the last 4,000 years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xing, Fei; Kettner, Albert J; Ashton, Andrew; Giosan, Liviu; Ibáñez, Carles; Kaplan, Jed O

    2014-03-01

    Fluvial sediment discharge can vary in response to climate changes and human activities, which in return influences human settlements and ecosystems through coastline progradation and retreat. To understand the mechanisms controlling the variations of fluvial water and sediment discharge for the Ebro drainage basin, Spain, we apply a hydrological model HydroTrend. Comparison of model results with a 47-year observational record (AD 1953-1999) suggests that the model adequately captures annual average water discharge (simulated 408 m(3)s(-1) versus observed 425 m(3)s(-1)) and sediment load (simulated 0.3 Mt yr(-1) versus observed 0.28 ± 0.04 Mt yr(-1)) for the Ebro basin. A long-term (4000-year) simulation, driven by paleoclimate and anthropogenic land cover change scenarios, indicates that water discharge is controlled by the changes in precipitation, which has a high annual variability but no long-term trend. Modeled suspended sediment load, however, has an increasing trend over time, which is closely related to anthropogenic land cover variations with no significant correlation to climatic changes. The simulation suggests that 4,000 years ago the annual sediment load to the ocean was 30.5 Mt yr(-1), which increased over time to 47.2 Mt yr(-1) (AD 1860-1960). In the second half of the 20th century, the emplacement of large dams resulted in a dramatic decrease in suspended sediment discharge, eventually reducing the flux to the ocean by more than 99% (mean value changes from 38.1 Mt yr(-1) to 0.3 Mt yr(-1)). Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Attributable Human-Induced Changes in the Likelihood and Magnitude of the Observed Extreme Precipitation during Hurricane Harvey

    OpenAIRE

    Risser, MD; Wehner, MF

    2017-01-01

    ©2017. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Record rainfall amounts were recorded during Hurricane Harvey in the Houston, Texas, area, leading to widespread flooding. We analyze observed precipitation from the Global Historical Climatology Network with a covariate-based extreme value statistical analysis, accounting for both the external influence of global warming and the internal influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation. We find that human-induced climate change likely increase...

  5. Millennial and sub-millennial scale climatic variations recorded in polar ice cores over the last glacial period

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Capron

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Since its discovery in Greenland ice cores, the millennial scale climatic variability of the last glacial period has been increasingly documented at all latitudes with studies focusing mainly on Marine Isotopic Stage 3 (MIS 3; 28–60 thousand of years before present, hereafter ka and characterized by short Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO events. Recent and new results obtained on the EPICA and NorthGRIP ice cores now precisely describe the rapid variations of Antarctic and Greenland temperature during MIS 5 (73.5–123 ka, a time period corresponding to relatively high sea level. The results display a succession of abrupt events associated with long Greenland InterStadial phases (GIS enabling us to highlight a sub-millennial scale climatic variability depicted by (i short-lived and abrupt warming events preceding some GIS (precursor-type events and (ii abrupt warming events at the end of some GIS (rebound-type events. The occurrence of these sub-millennial scale events is suggested to be driven by the insolation at high northern latitudes together with the internal forcing of ice sheets. Thanks to a recent NorthGRIP-EPICA Dronning Maud Land (EDML common timescale over MIS 5, the bipolar sequence of climatic events can be established at millennial to sub-millennial timescale. This shows that for extraordinary long stadial durations the accompanying Antarctic warming amplitude cannot be described by a simple linear relationship between the two as expected from the bipolar seesaw concept. We also show that when ice sheets are extensive, Antarctica does not necessarily warm during the whole GS as the thermal bipolar seesaw model would predict, questioning the Greenland ice core temperature records as a proxy for AMOC changes throughout the glacial period.

  6. 20th-Century Climate Change over Africa: Seasonal Variation in Hydroclimate Trends and Sahara Desert Extent

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nigam, S.; Thomas, N. P.

    2017-12-01

    Twentieth-century trends in seasonal temperature and precipitation over the African continent are analyzed from observational data sets and historical climate simulations. Given the agricultural economy of the continent, a seasonal perspective is adopted as it is more pertinent than an annual-average one which can mask off-setting but agriculturally-sensitive seasonal hydroclimate variations. Examination of linear trends in seasonal surface air temperature (SAT) shows that heat stress has increased in several regions, including Sudan and Northern Africa where largest SAT trends occur in the warm season. Broadly speaking, the northern continent has warmed more than the southern one in all seasons. Precipitation trends are varied but notable declining trends are found in the countries along the Gulf of Guinea, especially in the source region of Niger river in West Africa, and in the Congo river basin. Rainfall over the African Great Lakes - one of the largest freshwater repositories - has however increased. We show that the Sahara Desert has expanded significantly over the 20th century - by 12-20% depending on the season. The desert expanded southward in summer, reflecting retreat of the northern edge of the Sahel rainfall belt; and to the north in winter, indicating potential impact of the widening of the Tropics. Specific mechanisms driving the expansion in each season are investigated. Finally, this observational analysis is used to evaluate the state-of-the-art climate models from a comparison of the 20th-century hydroclimate trends with those manifest in historical climate simulations. The evaluation shows that modeling regional hydroclimate change over the Africa continent remains challenging.

  7. Regional pattern and interannual variations in global terrestrial carbon uptake in response to changes in climate and atmospheric CO2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cao, Mingkui; Tao, B.; Li, Kerang; Prince, Stephen D.; Small, J.

    2005-01-01

    Atmospheric measurements indicate that the terrestrial carbon sink increased substantially from the 1980s to the 1990s, but which factors and regions were responsible for the increase are not well identified yet. Using process- and remote sensing-based ecosystem models, we show that changes in climate and atmospheric CO 2 in the period 1981-2000 enhanced net ecosystem production (NEP) and caused major geographical changes in the global distribution of NEP. In the 1980s the Americas accounted for almost all of the global NEP, but in the 1990s NEP in Eurasia and Africa became higher than that of the Americas. The year-to-year variation in global NEP was up to 2.5 Pg C (1 Pg = 10 15 g), in which 1.4 Pg C was attributable to the El Nino Southern Oscillation cycle (ENSO). NEP clearly decreased in El Nino and increased in La Nina in South America and Africa, but the response in North America and Eurasia was mixed. The estimated NEP increases accounted for only 30% of the global terrestrial carbon sink but can explain almost all of the increase from the 1980s to the 1990s. Because a large part of the increase in NEP was driven by the long-term trend of climate and atmospheric CO 2 , the increase in the global terrestrial carbon sink from the 1980s to the 1990s was a continuation of the trend since the middle of the twentieth century, rather than merely a consequence of short-time climate variability

  8. Elevated temperature is more effective than elevated [CO2 ] in exposing genotypic variation in Telopea speciosissima growth plasticity: implications for woody plant populations under climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Guomin; Rymer, Paul D; Duan, Honglang; Smith, Renee A; Tissue, David T

    2015-10-01

    Intraspecific variation in phenotypic plasticity is a critical determinant of plant species capacity to cope with climate change. A long-standing hypothesis states that greater levels of environmental variability will select for genotypes with greater phenotypic plasticity. However, few studies have examined how genotypes of woody species originating from contrasting environments respond to multiple climate change factors. Here, we investigated the main and interactive effects of elevated [CO2 ] (CE ) and elevated temperature (TE ) on growth and physiology of Coastal (warmer, less variable temperature environment) and Upland (cooler, more variable temperature environment) genotypes of an Australian woody species Telopea speciosissima. Both genotypes were positively responsive to CE (35% and 29% increase in whole-plant dry mass and leaf area, respectively), but only the Coastal genotype exhibited positive growth responses to TE . We found that the Coastal genotype exhibited greater growth response to TE (47% and 85% increase in whole-plant dry mass and leaf area, respectively) when compared with the Upland genotype (no change in dry mass or leaf area). No intraspecific variation in physiological plasticity was detected under CE or TE , and the interactive effects of CE and TE on intraspecific variation in phenotypic plasticity were also largely absent. Overall, TE was a more effective climate factor than CE in exposing genotypic variation in our woody species. Our results contradict the paradigm that genotypes from more variable climates will exhibit greater phenotypic plasticity in future climate regimes. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  9. Some Ethical Concerns About Human Induced Pluripotent Stem Cells.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Yue Liang

    2016-10-01

    Human induced pluripotent stem cells can be obtained from somatic cells, and their derivation does not require destruction of embryos, thus avoiding ethical problems arising from the destruction of human embryos. This type of stem cell may provide an important tool for stem cell therapy, but it also results in some ethical concerns. It is likely that abnormal reprogramming occurs in the induction of human induced pluripotent stem cells, and that the stem cells generate tumors in the process of stem cell therapy. Human induced pluripotent stem cells should not be used to clone human beings, to produce human germ cells, nor to make human embryos. Informed consent should be obtained from patients in stem cell therapy.

  10. Climate change and the biosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    F. Stuart Chapin

    2008-01-01

    Scientific assessments now clearly demonstrate the ecologic and societal consequences of human induced climate change, as detailed by the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report. Global warming spells danger for Earth's biomes, which in turn play an important role in climate change. On the following pages, you will read about some of...

  11. Seasonal variation in the incidence of preeclampsia and eclampsia in tropical climatic conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Subramaniam Vidya

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Observational studies have demonstrated various correlations between hypertensive disorders of pregnancy and different weather parameters. We aim to study if a correlation exists between the incidence of eclampsia and pre-eclampsia and various weather parameters in the tropical coastal city of Mumbai which has the distinction of having relatively uniform meteorological variables all throughout the year, except for the monsoon season. Methods We retrospectively analysed data from a large maternity centre in Mumbai, India over a period of 36 months from March 1993 to February 1996, recording the incidence of preeclampsia and eclampsia. Meteorological data was acquired from the regional meteorological centre recording the monthly average temperature, humidity, barometric pressure and rainfall during the study period. Study period was then divided into two climate conditions: monsoon season (June to August and dry season September to May. The incidence of preeclampsia and eclampsia and the meteorological differences between the two seasons were compared. Results Over a 36-month period, a total of 29562 deliveries were recorded, of which 1238 patients developed preeclampsia (4.18% and 34 developed eclampsia (0.11%. The incidence of preeclampsia did not differ between the monsoon and the dry season (4.3% vs. 4.15%, p = 0.5. The incidence of eclampsia was significantly higher in the monsoon (0.2% vs. 0.08%, p = 0.01. The monsoon was significantly cooler (median maximum temperature 30.7°C vs. 32.3°C, p = 0.01, more humid (median relative humidity 85% vs. 70%, p = 0.0008, and received higher rainfall (median 504.9 mm vs. 0.3 mm, p = 0.0002 than the rest of the year. The median barometric pressure (1005 mb during the monsoon season was significantly lower than the rest of the year (1012 mb, p Conclusion In the tropical climate of Mumbai, the incidence of eclampsia is significantly higher in monsoon, when the weather is cooler and

  12. Variations in Mediterranean-Atlantic exchange across the late Pliocene climate transition

    Science.gov (United States)

    García-Gallardo, Ángela; Grunert, Patrick; Piller, Werner E.

    2018-03-01

    Mediterranean-Atlantic exchange through the Strait of Gibraltar plays a significant role in the global ocean-climate dynamics in two ways. On one side, the injection of the saline and warm Mediterranean Outflow Water (MOW) contributes to North Atlantic deep-water formation. In return, the Atlantic inflow is considered a sink of less saline water for the North Atlantic Ocean. However, while the history of MOW is the focus of numerous studies, the Pliocene Atlantic inflow has received little attention so far. The present study provides an assessment of the Mediterranean-Atlantic exchange with a focus on the Atlantic inflow strength and its response to regional and global climate from 3.33 to 2.60 Ma. This time interval comprises the mid-Pliocene warm period (MPWP; 3.29-2.97 Ma) and the onset of the Northern Hemisphere glaciation (NHG). For this purpose, gradients in surface δ18O records of the planktonic foraminifer Globigerinoides ruber between the Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) Hole U1389E (Gulf of Cádiz) and Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Hole 978A (Alboran Sea) have been evaluated. Interglacial stages and warm glacials of the MPWP revealed steep and reversed (relative to the present) W-E δ18O gradients suggesting a weakening of Mediterranean-Atlantic exchange likely caused by high levels of relative humidity in the Mediterranean region. In contrast, periods of stronger inflow are indicated by flat δ18O gradients due to more intense arid conditions during the severe glacial Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) M2 and the initiation of NHG (MIS G22, G14, G6-104). Intensified Mediterranean-Atlantic exchange in cold periods is linked to the occurrence of ice-rafted debris (IRD) at low latitudes and a weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Our results thus suggest the development of a negative feedback between AMOC and exchange rates at the Strait of Gibraltar in the latest Pliocene as it has been proposed for the late Quaternary.

  13. Climate-related environmental variation in a visual signalling device: the male and female dewlap in Anolis sagrei lizards.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Driessens, T; Baeckens, S; Balzarolo, M; Vanhooydonck, B; Huyghe, K; Van Damme, R

    2017-10-01

    Animals communicate using a variety of signals that differ dramatically among and within species. The astonishing dewlap diversity in anoles has attracted considerable attention in this respect. Yet, the evolutionary processes behind it remain elusive and have mostly been explored for males only. Here, we considered Anolis sagrei males and females to study signal divergence among populations. First, we assessed the degree of variation in dewlap design (size, pattern and colour) and displays by comparing 17 populations distributed across the Caribbean. Second, we assessed whether the observed dewlap diversity is associated with variation in climate-related environmental conditions. Results showed that populations differed in all dewlap characteristics, with the exception of display rate in females. We further found that males and females occurring in 'xeric' environments had a higher proportion of solid dewlaps with higher UV reflectance. In addition, lizards inhabiting 'mesic' environments had primarily marginal dewlaps showing high reflectance in red. For dewlap display, a correlation with environment was only observed in males. Our study provides evidence for a strong relationship between signal design and prevailing environmental conditions, which may result from differential selection on signal efficacy. Moreover, our study highlights the importance of including females when studying dewlaps in an evolutionary context. © 2017 European Society For Evolutionary Biology. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2017 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

  14. Pacific Northwest Regional and Ecozone-scale Carbon Cycle Responses to 25 Years of Variation in Climate and Disturbance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, D. P.; Ritts, W. D.; Kennedy, R. E.; Gray, A. N.; Yang, Z.

    2015-12-01

    Spatial variation in climate, soils, disturbance regime, and forest management - as well as temporal variation in weather - all influence terrestrial carbon sources and sinks. Spatially-distributed, process-based, carbon cycle simulation models provide a means to integrate information from these various influences to estimate carbon pools and flux over large domains. Here we apply the Biome-BGC model over the 4 state (OR, WA, ID, Western MT) Northwest U.S. region for the interval from 1986-2010. Landsat data was used to characterize disturbances and revealed that the overall disturbance rate on forest land across the region was 0.8 % yr-1, with 49 % as harvests, 28 % as fire, and 23 % as pest/pathogen. A large proportion of the harvested area was on private forestland (62 %) and a large proportion of total burned area was on public forestland (89 %). Net ecosystem production (NEP) for the 2006-2010 interval on forestland was predominantly positive (a carbon sink) throughout the region, with maximum values in the Coast Range, intermediate values in the Cascade Mountains, and relatively low values in the Inland Rocky Mountain ecoregions. Croplands throughout the region had consistently high NEP. Localized negative NEPs were mostly associated with recent disturbances. There was large interannual variation in regional NEP, with notably low values across the region in 2003. In all ecoregions there was a downward trend in NEP over the 25 year study period. The net ecosystem carbon balance was positive in OR, near neutral in ID and WA, and negative (a carbon source) MT. The Northwest region as a whole was a carbon sink in the 2006-2010 period.

  15. Climate Clever Clovers: New Paradigm to Reduce the Environmental Footprint of Ruminants by Breeding Low Methanogenic Forages Utilizing Haplotype Variation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Parwinder Kaur

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Mitigating methane production by ruminants is a significant challenge to global livestock production. This research offers a new paradigm to reduce methane emissions from ruminants by breeding climate-clever clovers. We demonstrate wide genetic diversity for the trait methanogenic potential in Australia’s key pasture legume, subterranean clover (Trifolium subterraneum L.. In a bi-parental population the broadsense heritability in methanogenic potential was moderate (H2 = 0.4 and allelic variation in a region of Chr 8 accounted for 7.8% of phenotypic variation. In a genome-wide association study we identified four loci controlling methanogenic potential assessed by an in vitro fermentation system. Significantly, the discovery of a single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP on Chr 5 in a defined haplotype block with an upstream putative candidate gene from a plant peroxidase-like superfamily (TSub_g18548 and a downstream lectin receptor protein kinase (TSub_g18549 provides valuable candidates for an assay for this complex trait. In this way haplotype variation can be tracked to breed pastures with reduced methanogenic potential. Of the quantitative trait loci candidates, the DNA-damage-repair/toleration DRT100-like protein (TSub_g26967, linked to avoid the severity of DNA damage induced by secondary metabolites, is considered central to enteric methane production, as are disease resistance (TSub_g26971, TSub_g26972, and TSub_g18549 and ribonuclease proteins (TSub_g26974, TSub_g26975. These proteins are good pointers to elucidate the genetic basis of in vitro microbial fermentability and enteric methanogenic potential in subterranean clover. The genes identified allow the design of a suite of markers for marker-assisted selection to reduce rumen methane emission in selected pasture legumes. We demonstrate the feasibility of a plant breeding approach without compromising animal productivity to mitigate enteric methane emissions, which is one of the most

  16. Variations of Climate-Growth Response of Major Conifers at Upper Distributional Limits in Shika Snow Mountain, Northwestern Yunnan Plateau, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yun Zhang

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Improved understanding of climate-growth relationships of multiple species is fundamental to understanding and predicting the response of forest growth to future climate change. Forests are mainly composed of conifers in Northwestern Yunnan Plateau, but variations of growth response to climate conditions among the species are not well understood. To detect the growth response of multiple species to climate change, we developed residual chronologies of four major conifers, i.e., George’s fir (Abies georgei Orr, Likiang spruce (Picea likiangensis (Franch. E.Pritz., Gaoshan pine (Pinus densata Mast. and Chinese larch (Larix potaninii Batalin at the upper distributional limits in Shika Snow Mountain. Using the dendroclimatology method, we analyzed correlations between the residual chronologies and climate variables. The results showed that conifer radial growth was influenced by both temperature and precipitation in Shika Snow Mountain. Previous November temperature, previous July temperature, and current May precipitation were the common climatic factors that had consistent influences on radial growth of the four species. Temperature in the previous post-growing season (September–October and moisture conditions in the current growing season (June–August were the common climatic factors that had divergent impacts on the radial growth of the four species. Based on the predictions of climate models and our understanding of the growth response of four species to climate variables, we may understand the growth response to climate change at the species level. It is difficult to predict future forest growth in the study area, since future climate change might cause both increases and decreases for the four species and indirect effects of climate change on forests should be considered.

  17. Orbitally-paced variations of water availability in the SE Asian Monsoon region following the Miocene Climate Transition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heitmann, Emma O.; Ji, Shunchuan; Nie, Junsheng; Breecker, Daniel O.

    2017-09-01

    Middle Miocene Earth had several boundary conditions similar to those predicted for future Earth including similar atmospheric pCO2 and substantial Antarctic ice cover but no northern hemisphere ice sheets. We describe a 12 m outcrop of the terrestrial Yanwan Section in the Tianshui Basin, Gansu, China, following the Miocene Climate Transition (13.9-13.7 Ma). It consists of ∼25 cm thick CaCO3-cemented horizons that overprint siltstones every ∼1 m. We suggest that stacked soils developed in siltstones under a seasonal climate with a fluctuating water table, evidenced by roots, clay films, mottling, presence of CaCO3 nodules, and stacked carbonate nodule δ13 C and δ18 O profiles that mimic modern soils. We suggest that the CaCO3-cemented horizons are capillary-fringe carbonates that formed in an arid climate with a steady water table and high potential evapotranspiration rates (PET), evidenced by sharp upper and basal contacts, micrite, sparite, and root-pore cements. The CaCO3 of the cemented horizons and the carbonate nodules have similar mean δ18 O and δ13 C values but the cements have significantly smaller variance in δ13 C and δ18 O values and a different δ18 O versus δ13 C slope, supporting the conclusion that these carbonates are from different populations. The magneto-stratigraphic age model indicates obliquity pacing of the arid conditions required to form the CaCO3-cemented horizons suggesting an orbital control on water availability. We suggest two possible drivers for the obliquity pacing of arid conditions: 1) variability in the cross-equatorial pressure gradient that controls summer monsoon (ASM) strength and is influenced by obliquity-paced variations of Antarctic ice volume and 2) variability in Western Pacific Ocean-East Asian continent pressure gradient controlled by the 25-45°N meridional insolation gradient. We also suggest that variations in aridity were influenced by variations in PET and sensible heating of the regional land

  18. Seasonal variation and climate change impact in Rainfall Erosivity across Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panagos, Panos; Borrelli, Pasquale; Meusburger, Katrin; Alewell, Christine; Ballabio, Cristiano

    2017-04-01

    Rainfall erosivity quantifies the climatic effect on water erosion and is of high importance for soil scientists, land use planners, agronomists, hydrologists and environmental scientists in general. The rainfall erosivity combines the influence of rainfall duration, magnitude, frequency and intensity. Rainfall erosivity is calculated from a series of single storm events by multiplying the total storm kinetic energy with the measured maximum 30-minute rainfall intensity. This estimation requests high temporal resolution (e.g. 30 minutes) rainfall data for sufficiently long time periods (i.e. 20 years). The European Commission's Joint Research Centr(JRC) in collaboration with national/regional meteorological services and Environmental Institutions made an extensive data collection of high resolution rainfall data in the 28 Member States of the European Union plus Switzerland to estimate rainfall erosivity in Europe. This resulted in the Rainfall Erosivity Database on the European Scale (REDES) which included 1,675 stations. The interpolation of those point erosivity values with a Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) model has resulted in the first Rainfall Erosivity map of Europe (Science of the Total Environment, 511: 801-815). In 2016, REDES extended with a monthly component, which allowed developing monthly and seasonal erosivity maps and assessing rainfall erosivity both spatially and temporally for European Union and Switzerland. The monthly erosivity maps have been used to develop composite indicators that map both intra-annual variability and concentration of erosive events (Science of the Total Environment, 579: 1298-1315). Consequently, spatio-temporal mapping of rainfall erosivity permits to identify the months and the areas with highest risk of soil loss where conservation measures should be applied in different seasons of the year. Finally, the identification of the most erosive month allows recommending certain agricultural management practices (crop

  19. Large-scale climate variation modifies the winter grouping behavior of endangered Indiana bats

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thogmartin, Wayne E.; McKann, Patrick C.

    2014-01-01

    Power laws describe the functional relationship between 2 quantities, such as the frequency of a group as the multiplicative power of group size. We examined whether the annual size of well-surveyed wintering populations of endangered Indiana bats (Myotis sodalis) followed a power law, and then leveraged this relationship to predict whether the aggregation of Indiana bats in winter was influenced by global climate processes. We determined that Indiana bat wintering populations were distributed according to a power law (mean scaling coefficient α = −0.44 [95% confidence interval {95% CI} = −0.61, −0.28). The antilog of these annual scaling coefficients ranged between 0.67 and 0.81, coincident with the three-fourths power found in many other biological phenomena. We associated temporal patterns in the annual (1983–2011) scaling coefficient with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index in August (βNAOAugust = −0.017 [90% CI = −0.032, −0.002]), when Indiana bats are deciding when and where to hibernate. After accounting for the strong effect of philopatry to habitual wintering locations, Indiana bats aggregated in larger wintering populations during periods of severe winter and in smaller populations in milder winters. The association with August values of the NAO indicates that bats anticipate future winter weather conditions when deciding where to roost, a heretofore unrecognized role for prehibernation swarming behavior. Future research is needed to understand whether the three-fourths–scaling patterns we observed are related to scaling in metabolism.

  20. The influence of climatically-driven surface loading variations on continental strain and seismicity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Craig, Tim; Calais, Eric; Fleitout, Luce; Bollinger, Laurent; Scotti, Oona

    2016-04-01

    In slowly deforming regions of plate interiors, secondary sources of stress and strain can result in transient deformation rates comparable to, or greater than, the background tectonic rates. Highly variable in space and time, these transients have the potential to influence the spatio-temporal distribution of seismicity, interfering with any background tectonic effects to either promote or inhibit the failure of pre-existing faults, and potentially leading to a clustered, or 'pulse-like', seismic history. Here, we investigate the ways in which the large-scale deformation field resulting from climatically-controlled changes in surface ice mass over the Pleistocene and Holocene may have influenced not only the seismicity of glaciated regions, but also the wider seismicity around the ice periphery. We first use a set of geodynamic models to demonstrate that a major pulse of seismic activity occurring in Fennoscandia, coincident with the time of end-glaciation, occurred in a setting where the contemporaneous horizontal strain-rate resulting from the changing ice mass, was extensional - opposite to the reverse sense of coseismic displacement accommodated on these faults. Therefore, faulting did not release extensional elastic strain that was building up at the time of failure, but compressional elastic strain that had accumulated in the lithosphere on timescales longer than the glacial cycle, illustrating the potential for a non-tectonic trigger to tap in to the background tectonic stress-state. We then move on to investigate the more distal influence that changing ice (and ocean) volumes may have had on the evolving strain field across intraplate Europe, how this is reflected in the seismicity across intraplate Europe, and what impact this might have on the paleoseismic record.

  1. Trends and variations of pH and hardness in a typical semi-arid river in a monsoon climate region during 1985-2009.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hao, Shaonan; Li, Xuyong; Jiang, Yan; Zhao, Hongtao; Yang, Lei

    2016-09-01

    The rapid growth of urbanization and industrialization, along with dramatic climate change, has strongly influenced hydrochemical characteristics in recent decades in China and thus could cause the variation of pH and general total hardness of a river. To explore such variations and their potential influencing factors in a river of the monsoon climate region, we analyzed a long-term monitoring dataset of pH, SO4 (2-), NOx, general total hardness (GH), Mg(2+), Ca(2+), and Cl(-) in surface water and groundwater in the Luan River basin from 1985 to 2009. The nonparametric Seasonal Kendall trend test was used to test the long-term trends of pH and GH. Relationship between the affecting factors, pH and GH were discussed. Results showed that pH showed a decreasing trend and that GH had an increasing trend in the long-term. Seasonal variation of pH and GH was mainly due to the typical monsoon climate. Results of correlation analysis showed that the unit area usage amounts of chemical fertilizer, NO3 (-), and SO4 (2-) were negatively correlated with pH in groundwater. In addition, mining activity affected GH spatial variation. Acid deposition, drought, and increasing the use of chemical fertilizers would contribute to the acidification trend, and mining activities would affect the spatial variation of GH. Variations of precipitation and runoff in semi-arid monsoon climate areas had significant influences on the pH and GH. Our findings implied that human activities played a critical role in river acidification in the semi-arid monsoon climate region of northern China.

  2. Diffusion Filters for Variational Data Assimilation of Sea Surface Temperature in an Intermediate Climate Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xuefeng Zhang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Sequential, adaptive, and gradient diffusion filters are implemented into spatial multiscale three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3DVAR as alternative schemes to model background error covariance matrix for the commonly used correction scale method, recursive filter method, and sequential 3DVAR. The gradient diffusion filter (GDF is verified by a two-dimensional sea surface temperature (SST assimilation experiment. Compared to the existing DF, the new GDF scheme shows a superior performance in the assimilation experiment due to its success in extracting the spatial multiscale information. The GDF can retrieve successfully the longwave information over the whole analysis domain and the shortwave information over data-dense regions. After that, a perfect twin data assimilation experiment framework is designed to study the effect of the GDF on the state estimation based on an intermediate coupled model. In this framework, the assimilation model is subject to “biased” initial fields from the “truth” model. While the GDF reduces the model bias in general, it can enhance the accuracy of the state estimation in the region that the observations are removed, especially in the South Ocean. In addition, the higher forecast skill can be obtained through the better initial state fields produced by the GDF.

  3. Variation of Main Phenophases in Phenological Calendar in East China and Their Response to Climate Change

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    Fengyi Zheng

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Based on the phenological data from China Phenological Observation Network, we compiled the phenological calendars of 3 phenological observation stations (Shanghai, Nanjing, and Hefei in East China for 1987–1996 and 2003–2012 according to the sequences of mean phenophases. We calculated the correlated coefficient and the root mean square error (RMSE between phenophases and the beginning of meteorological seasons to determine the beginning date of phenological season. By comparing new phenological calendars with the old ones, we discussed the variation of phenophases and their responses to temperature. The conclusions are as follows. (1 The beginning dates of spring and summer advanced, while those of autumn and winter delayed. Thus, summers got longer and winters got shorter. (2 The beginning time of the four phenological seasons was advancing during 1987–1996, while it was delaying during 2003–2012. (3 Most spring and summer phenophases occur earlier and most autumn and winter phenophases occur later in 2003–2012 than in 1987–1996. (4 The beginning time of phenological seasons was significantly correlated with temperature. The phenological sensitivities to temperature ranged from −6.49 to −6.55 days/°C in spring, −3.65 to −5.02 days/°C in summer, 8.13 to 10.27 days/°C in autumn, and 4.76 to 10.00 days/°C in winter.

  4. Global Assessment of Human-induced Soil Degradation (GLASOD)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oldeman, L.R.; Hakkeling, R.T.A.; Sombroek, W.G.; Batjes, N.H.

    2014-01-01

    The GLASOD project (1987-1990) has produced a world map of human-induced soil degradation. Data were complied in cooperation with a large number of soil scientists throughout the world, using uniform Guidelines and international correlation. The status of soil degradation was mapped within loosely

  5. Assessing the impacts of human activities and climate variations on grassland productivity by partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM)

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SHA Zongyao; XIE Yichun; TAN Xicheng; BAI Yongfei; LI Jonathan; LIU Xuefeng

    2017-01-01

    The cause-effect associations between geographical phenomena are an important focus in ecological research.Recent studies in structural equation modeling (SEM) demonstrated the potential for analyzing such associations.We applied the variance-based partial least squares SEM (PLS-SEM) and geographically-weighted regression (GWR) modeling to assess the human-climate impact on grassland productivity represented by above-ground biomass (AGB).The human and climate factors and their interaction were taken to explain the AGB variance by a PLS-SEM developed for the grassland ecosystem in Inner Mongolia,China.Results indicated that 65.5% of the AGB variance could be explained by the human and climate factors and their interaction.The case study showed that the human and climate factors imposed a significant and negative impact on the AGB and that their interaction alleviated to some extent the threat from the intensified human-climate pressure.The alleviation may be attributable to vegetation adaptation to high human-climate stresses,to human adaptation to climate conditions or/and to recent vegetation restoration programs in the highly degraded areas.Furthermore,the AGB response to the human and climate factors modeled by GWR exhibited significant spatial variations.This study demonstrated that the combination of PLS-SEM and GWR model is feasible to investigate the cause-effect relation in socio-ecological systems.

  6. Determining the contributions of urbanisation and climate change to NPP variations over the last decade in the Yangtze River Delta, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Shaohua; Zhou, Shenglu; Chen, Dongxiang; Wei, Zongqiang; Dai, Liang; Li, Xingong

    2014-02-15

    Terrestrial net primary production (NPP) is an important measure of global change, and identifying the relative contributions of urbanisation and climate change to NPP is important for understanding the impact of human and natural influences on terrestrial systems and the carbon cycle. The objective of this study was to reveal how urbanisation and climate drive changes in NPP. Satellite-based estimates of NPP collected over a 12-year period (1999-2010) were analysed to identify NPP variations in the Yangtze River Delta. Temporal and spatial analysis methods were used to identify the relationships among NPP, nighttime light urbanisation index values, and climatic factors from pixel to regional scales. The NPP of the entire Yangtze River Delta decreased slightly at a rate of -0.5 g C m(-2)a(-1) from 1999 to 2010, but this change was not significant. However, in the urban region, NPP decreased significantly (pclimate change to NPP variation. The results revealed that the urbanisation factor is the main driving force for NPP change in high-speed urbanisation areas, and the factor accounted for 47% of the variations. However, in the forest and farm regions, the NPP variation was mainly controlled by climate change and residual factors. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Regional variation of flow duration curves in the eastern United States: Process-based analyses of the interaction between climate and landscape properties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wafa Chouaib; Peter V. Caldwell; Younes Alila

    2018-01-01

    This paper advances the physical understanding of the flow duration curve (FDC) regional variation. It provides a process-based analysis of the interaction between climate and landscape properties to explain disparities in FDC shapes. We used (i) long term measured flow and precipitation data over 73 catchments from the eastern US. (ii) We calibrated the...

  8. Dynamic analysis of pan evaporation variations in the Huai River Basin, a climate transition zone in eastern China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Meng; Chu, Ronghao; Shen, Shuanghe; Islam, Abu Reza Md Towfiqul

    2018-06-01

    Pan evaporation (E pan ), which we examine in this study to better understand atmospheric evaporation demand, represents a pivotal indicator of the terrestrial ecosystem and hydrological cycle, particularly in the Huai River Basin (HRB) in eastern China, where high potential risks of drought and flooding are commonly observed. In this study, we examine the spatiotemporal trend patterns of climatic factors and E pan by using the Mann-Kendall test and the Theil-Sen estimator based on a daily meteorological dataset from 89 weather stations during 1965-2013 in the HRB. Furthermore, the PenPan model is employed to estimate E pan at a monthly time scale, and a differential equation method is applied to quantify contributions from four meteorological variables to E pan trends. The results show that E pan significantly decreased (P<0.001) at an average rate of -8.119mm·a -2 at annual time scale in the whole HRB, with approximately 90% of stations occupied. Meanwhile, the generally higher E pan values were detected in the northern HRB. The values of the aerodynamic components in the PenPan model were much greater than those of the radiative components, which were responsible for the variations in the E pan trend. The significantly decreasing wind speed (u 2 ) was the most dominant factor that controlled the decreasing E pan trend at each time scale, followed by the notable decreasing net radiation (R n ) at the annual time scale also in growing season and summer. However, the second dominant factor shifted to the mean temperature (T a ) during the spring and winter and the vapor pressure deficit (vpd) during the autumn. These phenomena demonstrated a positive link between the significance of climate variables and their control over the E pan trend. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Identifying the role of human-induced land-use change while assessing drought effects on groundwater recharge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verbeiren, Boud; Weerasinghe, Imeshi; Vanderhaegen, Sven; Canters, Frank; Uljee, Inge; Engelen, Guy; Jacquemin, Ingrid; Tychon, Bernard; Vangelis, Harris; Tsakiris, George; Batelaan, Okke; Huysmans, Marijke

    2015-04-01

    Drought is mainly regarded as a purely natural phenomenon, driven by the natural variation in precipitation or rather the lack of precipitation. Nowadays many river catchments are, however, altered by human activities having direct effects on the catchment landscape and hydrological response. In case of the occurrence of drought events in those catchments it becomes more complex to determine the effects of drought. To what extent is the hydrological response a direct result of the natural phenomenon and what is the role of the human factor? In this study we focus on the effects of droughts on groundwater recharge. Reliable estimation of groundwater recharge in space and time is of utmost importance for sustainable management of groundwater resources. Groundwater recharge forms the main source for replenishing aquifers. The main factors influencing groundwater recharge are the soil and topographic characteristics, land use and climate. While the first two influencing factors are relatively static, the latter two are (highly) dynamic. Differentiating between the contributions of each of these influencing factors to groundwater recharge is a challenging but important task. On the one hand, the occurrence of meteorological drought events is likely to cause direct, potentially deteriorating, effects on groundwater recharge. On the other hand, this is also the case for on-going land-use dynamics such as extensive urbanisation. The presented methodology aims at distinguishing in space and time between climate (drought-related) and land-use (human-induced) effects, enabling to assess the effects of drought on groundwater recharge. The physically-based water balance model WetSpass is used to calculate groundwater recharge in a distributed way (space and time) for the Dijle-Demer catchments in Belgium. The key issue is to determine land-use dynamics in a consistent way. A land-use timeseries is build based on four base maps. Via a change trajectory analysis the consistency

  10. Study on the relationship between the lake area variations of Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and the corresponding climate change in their basins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guozhuang, Shen; Jingjuan, Liao; Huadong, Guo; Yingkui, Li

    2014-03-01

    Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau is the largest lake area in China, with a total area of existing lakes of 36,900km2, accounting for 52% of the total lake area of China. Lakes on the Tibetan Plateau play critical roles in the water cycle and ecological and environment systems of the Plateau. The global trend of warming up is increasing obviously, which has led to major changes in the climate conditions in China, even in the world. Whereas, when they analyse the relationship they just use the weather station's recording data, without any spatial analysis of the climate data. Here, we will do some researches on the relationship between the 10 selected lakes' area variation and the corresponding climate change in their drainage basin and discuss how the lakes changes in recent 40 years using the climate data processed using the spatial kriging. Thus, the drainage area can be taken into account and a real relationship can be pointed out. In order to study the relationship, Landsat MSS data, Landsat TM, Landsat ETM images, the topographic map have been collected to extract the variation of lake area. The 131 weather stations climate data, including precipitation, temperature, sun shine duration, evaporation are chosen to study the relationship. After extraction of the area of the lakes, a multivariate statistical analysis method was used to test the relationship between the area of the lakes and the global climate change, including the change of the temperature, the precipitation, and other factors. The variation of lakes in Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau is related to the mean temperature, the precipitation and saturation vapour pressure. But the frozen soil may affect the lake area variation to some extent.

  11. Study on the relationship between the lake area variations of Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and the corresponding climate change in their basins

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guozhuang, Shen; Jingjuan, Liao; Huadong, Guo; Yingkui, Li

    2014-01-01

    Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau is the largest lake area in China, with a total area of existing lakes of 36,900km 2 , accounting for 52% of the total lake area of China. Lakes on the Tibetan Plateau play critical roles in the water cycle and ecological and environment systems of the Plateau. The global trend of warming up is increasing obviously, which has led to major changes in the climate conditions in China, even in the world. Whereas, when they analyse the relationship they just use the weather station's recording data, without any spatial analysis of the climate data. Here, we will do some researches on the relationship between the 10 selected lakes' area variation and the corresponding climate change in their drainage basin and discuss how the lakes changes in recent 40 years using the climate data processed using the spatial kriging. Thus, the drainage area can be taken into account and a real relationship can be pointed out. In order to study the relationship, Landsat MSS data, Landsat TM, Landsat ETM images, the topographic map have been collected to extract the variation of lake area. The 131 weather stations climate data, including precipitation, temperature, sun shine duration, evaporation are chosen to study the relationship. After extraction of the area of the lakes, a multivariate statistical analysis method was used to test the relationship between the area of the lakes and the global climate change, including the change of the temperature, the precipitation, and other factors. The variation of lakes in Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau is related to the mean temperature, the precipitation and saturation vapour pressure. But the frozen soil may affect the lake area variation to some extent

  12. Phenological, but not social, variation associated with climate differences in a eusocial sweat bee, Halictus ligatus, nesting in southern Ontario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miriam H. Richards

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Studies of annual and geographic variation in eusocial bee populations suggest that more stringent environmental conditions result in stronger reproductive skew favouring queens, while moderate conditions favour increasing worker reproduction. To test these predictions, we compared the phenology and colony development of H. ligatus nesting in St. Catharines, Ontario, Canada to a previously studied aggregation 90 km north of St. Catharines, in Victoria, Ontario. Despite the close proximity of these two locations, St. Catharines has markedly shorter winters and longer summers. Comparisons between St. Catharines in 2006 and Victoria in the 1980s and 1990s incorporate both geographic differences in climate and temporal differences due to climate change. We predicted that St. Catharines foundress queens should emerge from hibernation and initiate nests earlier in spring, giving them time to produce more workers. Since earlier studies indicated that queens have difficulty suppressing worker reproduction in larger colonies, we also predicted higher rates of worker ovarian development in St. Catharines. In spring and summer 2006, we excavated 65 H. ligatus nests, comparing their contents to 713 specimens collected in pan traps. As predicted, nests were initiated about a month earlier in St. Catharines than in Victoria, but contrary to prediction, fewer workers were produced in St. Catharines. St. Catharines workers were just as likely to have developed ovaries as Victoria workers. About 40% of St. Catharines workers were classified as reproductive, and larger reproductive workers tended to have higher ovarian scores. Early queen mortality in the longer nest cycle of St. Catharines bees may have enhanced opportunities for worker reproduction despite their smaller numbers. Novel features of H. ligatus sociobiology in St. Catharines included evidence that queens can initiate new nests following the loss of their first brood, overlap between worker and gyne

  13. Living with a Star: New Opportunities in Sun-Climate Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eddy, John Allen

    2003-01-01

    Enormous advances have been made in the last quarter century in all of these needed areas, covering the two essential halves of the Sun-Climate question: in what we know of solar variations and, equally important, in what we know of the climate system and of climatic changes. These research achievements allow us to examine all aspects of the question more directly and quantitatively than was ever possible before, and in the brighter light and more objective context of other known or suspected climate change mechanisms, including human-induced global greenhouse warming. Brief summaries of present status and current understanding are given below for nine facets of Sun-Climate science in which major progress has been made in recent years. At the same time it will be seen that in every instance, significant elements of uncertainty still remain, Some of the most important of these unanswered questions are considered later, in Section IV.

  14. The Effect of Climate Change on Variations in Dew Amount in a Paddy Ecosystem of the Sanjiang Plain, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yingying Xu

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Due to global warming, a drying and warming trend has been observed over the last 50 years in the Sanjiang Plain of Heilongjiang Province, China, which could significantly affect the condensation of vapor in paddy ecosystems. Dew is a crucial factor in the water and nutrient cycling of farmland ecosystems, and it exerts an important influence on fertilization and other agricultural activities. In order to reveal the effects of global warming on dew variation in a paddy ecosystem, an in situ experiment was conducted in paddy fields in the Sanjiang Plain during the growing seasons of 2011 to 2013. Dew was collected and measured with a poplar stick. The results of correlation analysis between meteorological factors and dew intensity in the paddy ecosystem indicate that the dew point temperature and relative humidity significantly influenced the dew intensity. Based on synchronous meteorological data, a stepwise linear multivariation regression model was established to predict dew amount. The model successfully interpreted the relationship between simulated and measured dew intensity. The results suggest that a warmer and drier climate would lead to a reduction in dew amount because water cannot condense when relative humidity falls below 71%.

  15. RNA Sequencing Analysis Reveals Transcriptomic Variations in Tobacco (Nicotiana tabacum Leaves Affected by Climate, Soil, and Tillage Factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bo Lei

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available The growth and development of plants are sensitive to their surroundings. Although numerous studies have analyzed plant transcriptomic variation, few have quantified the effect of combinations of factors or identified factor-specific effects. In this study, we performed RNA sequencing (RNA-seq analysis on tobacco leaves derived from 10 treatment combinations of three groups of ecological factors, i.e., climate factors (CFs, soil factors (SFs, and tillage factors (TFs. We detected 4980, 2916, and 1605 differentially expressed genes (DEGs that were affected by CFs, SFs, and TFs, which included 2703, 768, and 507 specific and 703 common DEGs (simultaneously regulated by CFs, SFs, and TFs, respectively. GO and KEGG enrichment analyses showed that genes involved in abiotic stress responses and secondary metabolic pathways were overrepresented in the common and CF-specific DEGs. In addition, we noted enrichment in CF-specific DEGs related to the circadian rhythm, SF-specific DEGs involved in mineral nutrient absorption and transport, and SF- and TF-specific DEGs associated with photosynthesis. Based on these results, we propose a model that explains how plants adapt to various ecological factors at the transcriptomic level. Additionally, the identified DEGs lay the foundation for future investigations of stress resistance, circadian rhythm and photosynthesis in tobacco.

  16. Study on Climatic Variation and Its Effect on Vegetable Type Soybean Genotypes at Khumaltar, Lalitpur in the Last Ten Years

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Santosh Raj Tripathi

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Soybean (Glycine max L. Merril is widely grown in the mid hills as intercrop with maize or in paddy bunds, while it is gaining popularity as sole crop in terai and inner terai. Mean temperature at Khumaltar during soybean growing period was mostly fluctuating; but we observed an increasing trend in temperature. Amount of rainfall was not changed dramatically but number of rainy days was decreased during study period. Rainfall during germination time increase soil moisture which also increase germination and found higher early stand. Days from sowing to 50% flowering and 90% maturity were short in the case of higher minimum temperature and low rainfall. Among the genotypes, AGS-377, AGS-378, AGS-379 and Tarkari Bhattmas-1 were more sensitive. However, seed yield decreased in the case of higher temperatures and low rainfall. Cool night temperatures and high moisture increased disease incidence in soybean which, eventually reduced yield. In last three years, plant suffered from moisture stress during early vegetative stage and high moisture during late vegetative stage which reduced seed yield and seed weight. In conclusion, we found that genotypes like AGS- 360, Sathiya and Tarkari Bhatmas-1 are very sensitive to climatic variation.

  17. Solar cycle variations of stratospheric ozone and temperature in simulations of a coupled chemistry-climate model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Austin

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The results from three 45-year simulations of a coupled chemistry climate model are analysed for solar cycle influences on ozone and temperature. The simulations include UV forcing at the top of the atmosphere, which includes a generic 27-day solar rotation effect as well as the observed monthly values of the solar fluxes. The results are analysed for the 27-day and 11-year cycles in temperature and ozone. In accordance with previous results, the 27-day cycle results are in good qualitative agreement with observations, particularly for ozone. However, the results show significant variations, typically a factor of two or more in sensitivity to solar flux, depending on the solar cycle. In the lower and middle stratosphere we show good agreement also between the modelled and observed 11-year cycle results for the ozone vertical profile averaged over low latitudes. In particular, the minimum in solar response near 20 hPa is well simulated. In comparison, experiments of the model with fixed solar phase (solar maximum/solar mean and climatological sea surface temperatures lead to a poorer simulation of the solar response in the ozone vertical profile, indicating the need for variable phase simulations in solar sensitivity experiments. The role of sea surface temperatures and tropical upwelling in simulating the ozone minimum response are also discussed.

  18. Vegetation greenness and land carbon-flux anomalies associated with climate variations: a focus on the year 2015

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Yue

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Understanding the variations in global land carbon uptake, and their driving mechanisms, is essential if we are to predict future carbon-cycle feedbacks on global environmental changes. Satellite observations of vegetation greenness have shown consistent greening across the globe over the past three decades. Such greening has driven the increasing land carbon sink, especially over the growing season in northern latitudes. On the other hand, interannual variations in land carbon uptake are strongly influenced by El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO climate variations. Marked reductions in land uptake and strong positive anomalies in the atmospheric CO2 growth rates occur during El Niño events. Here we use the year 2015 as a natural experiment to examine the possible response of land ecosystems to a combination of vegetation greening and an El Niño event. The year 2015 was the greenest year since 2000 according to satellite observations, but a record atmospheric CO2 growth rate also occurred due to a weaker than usual land carbon sink. Two atmospheric inversions indicate that the year 2015 had a higher than usual northern land carbon uptake in boreal spring and summer, consistent with the positive greening anomaly and strong warming. This strong uptake was, however, followed by a larger source of CO2 in the autumn. For the year 2015, enhanced autumn carbon release clearly offset the extra uptake associated with greening during the summer. This finding leads us to speculate that a long-term greening trend may foster more uptakes during the growing season, but no large increase in annual carbon sequestration. For the tropics and Southern Hemisphere, a strong transition towards a large carbon source for the last 3 months of 2015 is discovered, concomitant with El Niño development. This transition of terrestrial tropical CO2 fluxes between two consecutive seasons is the largest ever found in the inversion records. The strong transition to a

  19. Vegetation greenness and land carbon-flux anomalies associated with climate variations: a focus on the year 2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yue, Chao; Ciais, Philippe; Bastos, Ana; Chevallier, Frederic; Yin, Yi; Rödenbeck, Christian; Park, Taejin

    2017-11-01

    Understanding the variations in global land carbon uptake, and their driving mechanisms, is essential if we are to predict future carbon-cycle feedbacks on global environmental changes. Satellite observations of vegetation greenness have shown consistent greening across the globe over the past three decades. Such greening has driven the increasing land carbon sink, especially over the growing season in northern latitudes. On the other hand, interannual variations in land carbon uptake are strongly influenced by El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate variations. Marked reductions in land uptake and strong positive anomalies in the atmospheric CO2 growth rates occur during El Niño events. Here we use the year 2015 as a natural experiment to examine the possible response of land ecosystems to a combination of vegetation greening and an El Niño event. The year 2015 was the greenest year since 2000 according to satellite observations, but a record atmospheric CO2 growth rate also occurred due to a weaker than usual land carbon sink. Two atmospheric inversions indicate that the year 2015 had a higher than usual northern land carbon uptake in boreal spring and summer, consistent with the positive greening anomaly and strong warming. This strong uptake was, however, followed by a larger source of CO2 in the autumn. For the year 2015, enhanced autumn carbon release clearly offset the extra uptake associated with greening during the summer. This finding leads us to speculate that a long-term greening trend may foster more uptakes during the growing season, but no large increase in annual carbon sequestration. For the tropics and Southern Hemisphere, a strong transition towards a large carbon source for the last 3 months of 2015 is discovered, concomitant with El Niño development. This transition of terrestrial tropical CO2 fluxes between two consecutive seasons is the largest ever found in the inversion records. The strong transition to a carbon source in the

  20. Evaluation of human-induced vibration of continuous footbridges

    OpenAIRE

    El-Robaa Ahmed; Gaawan Sameh; Malek Charles

    2015-01-01

    With the development of construction materials and the introduction of high strength steel and concrete, the human-induced vibration became a dominant criterion for the design of pedestrian bridges. Currently, longer spans and lightweight bridges have been comprised in most of design trends. This leads to lower the natural frequencies of the system which have a great effect on the dynamic performance of bridges subjected to human activities. Although the design of steel footbridges could reac...

  1. Behavioural responses to human-induced environmental change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tuomainen, Ulla; Candolin, Ulrika

    2011-08-01

    The initial response of individuals to human-induced environmental change is often behavioural. This can improve the performance of individuals under sudden, large-scale perturbations and maintain viable populations. The response can also give additional time for genetic changes to arise and, hence, facilitate adaptation to new conditions. On the other hand, maladaptive responses, which reduce individual fitness, may occur when individuals encounter conditions that the population has not experienced during its evolutionary history, which can decrease population viability. A growing number of studies find human disturbances to induce behavioural responses, both directly and by altering factors that influence fitness. Common causes of behavioural responses are changes in the transmission of information, the concentration of endocrine disrupters, the availability of resources, the possibility of dispersal, and the abundance of interacting species. Frequent responses are alterations in habitat choice, movements, foraging, social behaviour and reproductive behaviour. Behavioural responses depend on the genetically determined reaction norm of the individuals, which evolves over generations. Populations first respond with individual behavioural plasticity, whereafter changes may arise through innovations and the social transmission of behavioural patterns within and across generations, and, finally, by evolution of the behavioural response over generations. Only a restricted number of species show behavioural adaptations that make them thrive in severely disturbed environments. Hence, rapid human-induced disturbances often decrease the diversity of native species, while facilitating the spread of invasive species with highly plastic behaviours. Consequently, behavioural responses to human-induced environmental change can have profound effects on the distribution, adaptation, speciation and extinction of populations and, hence, on biodiversity. A better understanding of

  2. Agent-based simulation for human-induced hazard analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bulleit, William M; Drewek, Matthew W

    2011-02-01

    Terrorism could be treated as a hazard for design purposes. For instance, the terrorist hazard could be analyzed in a manner similar to the way that seismic hazard is handled. No matter how terrorism is dealt with in the design of systems, the need for predictions of the frequency and magnitude of the hazard will be required. And, if the human-induced hazard is to be designed for in a manner analogous to natural hazards, then the predictions should be probabilistic in nature. The model described in this article is a prototype model that used agent-based modeling (ABM) to analyze terrorist attacks. The basic approach in this article of using ABM to model human-induced hazards has been preliminarily validated in the sense that the attack magnitudes seem to be power-law distributed and attacks occur mostly in regions where high levels of wealth pass through, such as transit routes and markets. The model developed in this study indicates that ABM is a viable approach to modeling socioeconomic-based infrastructure systems for engineering design to deal with human-induced hazards. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

  3. Influence of anthropogenic alterations on geomorphic response to climate variations and change in San Francisco Bay-Delta and watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Florsheim, J.L.; Dettinger, M.D.

    2004-01-01

    subsided Delta Islands to levee failure during floods and increase upstream backwater flooding. Thus, geomorphic responses to future climate variation and change will be closely tied to infrastructure and reservoir management, with survivability of infrastructure and decisions about timing, magnitude, and duration of flow releases from upstream reservoirs likely to determine the nature of those geomorphic responses.

  4. Fluvial responses to land-use changes and climatic variations within the Drury Creek watershed, southern Illinois

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Suzanne Orbock; Ritter, Dale F.; Kochel, R. Craig; Miller, Jerry R.

    1993-04-01

    Fluvial responses to climatic variation and Anglo-American settlement were documented for the Drury Creek watershed, southern Illinois by examining stratigraphic, geomorphic, climatic, and historical data. Regional analyses of long-term precipitation records document a period of decreasing mean annual precipitation from 1904 to about 1945, and an increasing trend in annual precipitation from 1952 to the present. The period between 1945 and 1951 experienced a large number of intense storms that resulted in high annual precipitation totals. Statistical relationships illustrate that changes in precipitation totals are transferred to the hydrologic system as fluctuations in stream discharge. Historical records of southern Illinois show that a maximum period of settlement and deforestation occurred between the 1860s and 1920s. This era ended in the 1940s when large tracts of land were revegetated in an attempt to curtail erosion which had caused extensive upland degradation. In response to hillslope erosion at least two meters of fine-grained sediments were deposited on valley floors. Average sedimentation rates, determined using decdrochronologic techniques, are estimated to be 2.11 cm/yr for the period between 1890 and 1988; rates that are 1 to 2 orders of magnitude greater than pre-settlement values calculated for other areas of the midwest. However, botanical data suggest that aggradation was episodic, possibly occurring during three periods characterized by greater annual precipitation. Since the 1940s, sedimentation rates have declined. Reduced rates of sedimentation are related to an episode of channel entrenchment that reduced overbank flooding. Entrenchment coincided with a period of: (1) reduced sediment yields associated with watershed revegetation and the introduction of soil conservation practices, and (2) intense storm activity that resulted in long periods of high discharge. As a result of channel incision and hillslope erosion, newly exposed bedrock in

  5. Variations in patient safety climate and perceived quality of collaboration between professions in out-of-hours care

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Klemenc-Ketis Z

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Zalika Klemenc-Ketis,1–3 Ellen Tveter Deilkås,4 Dag Hofoss,5 Gunnar Tschudi Bondevik6,7 1Department of Family Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, University of Maribor, Maribor, 2Department of Family Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, University of Ljubljana, Ljubljana, 3Community Health Centre Ljubljana, Ljubljana, Slovenia; 4Health Services Research Unit, Akershus University Hospital, Lørenskog, 5Institute of Health and Society, University of Oslo, Oslo, 6Department of Global Public Health and Primary Care, University of Bergen, Bergen, 7National Centre for Emergency Primary Health Care, Uni Research Health, Bergen, Norway Purpose: To get an overview of health care workers perceptions of patient safety climates and the quality of collaboration in Slovenian out-of-hours health care (OOHC between professional groups.Materials and methods: This was a cross-sectional study carried out in all (60 Slovenian OOHC clinics; 37 (61.7% agreed to participate with 438 employees. The questionnaire consisted of the Slovenian version of the Safety Attitudes Questionnaire – Ambulatory Version (SAQ-AV. Results: The study sample consisted of 175 (70.0% physicians, nurse practitioners, and practice nurses. Practice nurses reported the highest patient safety climate scores in all dimensions. Total mean (standard deviation SAQ-AV score was 60.9±15.2. Scores for quality of collaboration between different professional groups were high. The highest mean scores were reported by nurse practitioners on collaboration with practice nurses (4.4±0.6. The lowest mean scores were reported by practice nurses on collaboration with nurse practitioners (3.8±0.9.Conclusion: Due to large variations in Slovenian OOHC clinics with regard to how health care workers from different professional backgrounds perceive safety culture, more attention should be devoted to improving the team collaboration in OOHC. A clearer description of professional team roles should be provided. Keywords

  6. Spatio-temporal variation of vegetation coverage and its response to climate change in North China plain in the last 33 years

    Science.gov (United States)

    A, Duo; Zhao, Wenji; Qu, Xinyuan; Jing, Ran; Xiong, Kai

    2016-12-01

    Global climate change has led to significant vegetation changes in the past half century. North China Plain, the most important grain production base of china, is undergoing a process of prominent warming and drying. The vegetation coverage, which is used to monitor vegetation change, can respond to climate change (temperature and precipitation). In this study, GIMMS (Global Inventory Modelling and Mapping Studies)-NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) data, MODIS (Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) - NDVI data and climate data, during 1981-2013, were used to investigate the spatial distribution and changes of vegetation. The relationship between climate and vegetation on different spatial (agriculture, forest and grassland) and temporal (yearly, decadal and monthly) scales were also analyzed in North China Plain. (1) It was found that temperature exhibiting a slight increase trend (0.20 °C/10a, P 0.05). The climate mutation period was during 1991-1994. (2) Vegetation coverage slight increase was observed in the 55% of total study area, with a change rate of 0.00039/10a. Human activities may not only accelerate the changes of the vegetation coverage, but also c effect to the rate of these changes. (3) Overall, the correlation between the vegetation coverage and climatic factor is higher in monthly scale than yearly scale. The correlation analysis between vegetation coverage and climate changes showed that annual vegetation coverage was better correlatend with precipitation in grassland biome; but it showed a better correlated with temperature i the agriculture biome and forest biome. In addition, the vegetation coverage had sensitive time-effect respond to precipitation. (4) The vegetation coverage showed the same increasing trend before and after the climatic variations, but the rate of increase slowed down. From the vegetation coverage point of view, the grassland ecological zone had an obvious response to the climatic variations, but the

  7. Spatiotemporal phenological changes in fall foliage peak coloration in deciduous forest and the responses to climatic variation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Y.; Wilson, A. M.

    2017-12-01

    Plant phenology studies typically focus on the beginning and end of the growing season in temperate forests. We know too little about fall foliage peak coloration, which is a bioindicator of plant response in autumn to environmental changes, an important visual cue in fall associated with animal activities, and a key element in fall foliage ecotourism. Spatiotemporal changes in timing of fall foliage peak coloration of temperate forests and the associated environmental controls are not well understood. In this study, we examined multiple color indices to estimate Land Surface Phenology (LSP) of fall foliage peak coloration of deciduous forest in the northeastern USA using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) daily imagery from 2000 to 2015. We used long term phenology ground observations to validate our estimated LSP, and found that Visible Atmospherically Resistant Index (VARI) and Plant Senescence Reflectance Index (PSRI) were good metrics to estimate peak and end of leaf coloration period of deciduous forest. During the past 16 years, the length of period with peak fall foliage color of deciduous forest at southern New England and northern Appalachian forests regions became longer (0.3 7.7 days), mainly driven by earlier peak coloration. Northern New England, southern Appalachian forests and Ozark and Ouachita mountains areas had shorter period (‒0.2 ‒9.2 days) mainly due to earlier end of leaf coloration. Changes in peak and end of leaf coloration not only were associated with changing temperature in spring and fall, but also to drought and heat in summer, and heavy precipitation in both summer and fall. The associations between leaf peak coloration phenology and climatic variations were not consistent among ecoregions. Our findings suggested divergent change patterns in fall foliage peak coloration phenology in deciduous forests, and improved our understanding in the environmental control on timing of fall foliage color change.

  8. ANN Model-Based Simulation of the Runoff Variation in Response to Climate Change on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chang Juan

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Precisely quantitative assessments of stream flow response to climatic change and permafrost thawing are highly challenging and urgent in cold regions. However, due to the notably harsh environmental conditions, there is little field monitoring data of runoff in permafrost regions, which has limited the development of physically based models in these regions. To identify the impacts of climate change in the runoff process in the Three-River Headwater Region (TRHR on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, two artificial neural network (ANN models, one with three input variables (previous runoff, air temperature, and precipitation and another with two input variables (air temperature and precipitation only, were developed to simulate and predict the runoff variation in the TRHR. The results show that the three-input variable ANN model has a superior real-time prediction capability and performs well in the simulation and forecasting of the runoff variation in the TRHR. Under the different scenarios conditions, the forecasting results of ANN model indicated that climate change has a great effect on the runoff processes in the TRHR. The results of this study are of practical significance for water resources management and the evaluation of the impacts of climatic change on the hydrological regime in long-term considerations.

  9. Will Climate Change, Genetic and Demographic Variation or Rat Predation Pose the Greatest Risk for Persistence of an Altitudinally Distributed Island Endemic?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alison Shapcott

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Species endemic to mountains on oceanic islands are subject to a number of existing threats (in particular, invasive species along with the impacts of a rapidly changing climate. The Lord Howe Island endemic palm Hedyscepe canterburyana is restricted to two mountains above 300 m altitude. Predation by the introduced Black Rat (Rattus rattus is known to significantly reduce seedling recruitment. We examined the variation in Hedyscepe in terms of genetic variation, morphology, reproductive output and demographic structure, across an altitudinal gradient. We used demographic data to model population persistence under climate change predictions of upward range contraction incorporating long-term climatic records for Lord Howe Island. We also accounted for alternative levels of rat predation into the model to reflect management options for control. We found that Lord Howe Island is getting warmer and drier and quantified the degree of temperature change with altitude (0.9 °C per 100 m. For H. canterburyana, differences in development rates, population structure, reproductive output and population growth rate were identified between altitudes. In contrast, genetic variation was high and did not vary with altitude. There is no evidence of an upward range contraction as was predicted and recruitment was greatest at lower altitudes. Our models predicted slow population decline in the species and that the highest altitude populations are under greatest threat of extinction. Removal of rat predation would significantly enhance future persistence of this species.

  10. Temporal Variation of Wood Density and Carbon in Two Elevational Sites of Pinus cooperi in Relation to Climate Response in Northern Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pompa-García, Marín; Venegas-González, Alejandro

    2016-01-01

    Forest ecosystems play an important role in the global carbon cycle. Therefore, understanding the dynamics of carbon uptake in forest ecosystems is much needed. Pinus cooperi is a widely distributed species in the Sierra Madre Occidental in northern Mexico and future climatic variations could impact these ecosystems. Here, we analyze the variations of trunk carbon in two populations of P. cooperi situated at different elevational gradients, combining dendrochronological techniques and allometry. Carbon sequestration (50% biomass) was estimated from a specific allometric equation for this species based on: (i) variation of intra-annual wood density and (ii) diameter reconstruction. The results show that the population at a higher elevation had greater wood density, basal area, and hence, carbon accumulation. This finding can be explained by an ecological response of trees to adverse weather conditions, which would cause a change in the cellular structure affecting the within-ring wood density profile. The influence of variations in climate on the maximum density of chronologies showed a positive correlation with precipitation and the Multivariate El Niño Southern Oscillation Index during the winter season, and a negative correlation with maximum temperature during the spring season. Monitoring previous conditions to growth is crucial due to the increased vulnerability to extreme climatic variations on higher elevational sites. We concluded that temporal variability of wood density contributes to a better understanding of environmental historical changes and forest carbon dynamics in Northern Mexico, representing a significant improvement over previous studies on carbon sequestration. Assuming a uniform density according to tree age is incorrect, so this method can be used for environmental mitigation strategies, such as for managing P. cooperi, a dominant species of great ecological amplitude and widely used in forest industries. PMID:27272519

  11. Temporal Variation of Wood Density and Carbon in Two Elevational Sites of Pinus cooperi in Relation to Climate Response in Northern Mexico.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marín Pompa-García

    Full Text Available Forest ecosystems play an important role in the global carbon cycle. Therefore, understanding the dynamics of carbon uptake in forest ecosystems is much needed. Pinus cooperi is a widely distributed species in the Sierra Madre Occidental in northern Mexico and future climatic variations could impact these ecosystems. Here, we analyze the variations of trunk carbon in two populations of P. cooperi situated at different elevational gradients, combining dendrochronological techniques and allometry. Carbon sequestration (50% biomass was estimated from a specific allometric equation for this species based on: (i variation of intra-annual wood density and (ii diameter reconstruction. The results show that the population at a higher elevation had greater wood density, basal area, and hence, carbon accumulation. This finding can be explained by an ecological response of trees to adverse weather conditions, which would cause a change in the cellular structure affecting the within-ring wood density profile. The influence of variations in climate on the maximum density of chronologies showed a positive correlation with precipitation and the Multivariate El Niño Southern Oscillation Index during the winter season, and a negative correlation with maximum temperature during the spring season. Monitoring previous conditions to growth is crucial due to the increased vulnerability to extreme climatic variations on higher elevational sites. We concluded that temporal variability of wood density contributes to a better understanding of environmental historical changes and forest carbon dynamics in Northern Mexico, representing a significant improvement over previous studies on carbon sequestration. Assuming a uniform density according to tree age is incorrect, so this method can be used for environmental mitigation strategies, such as for managing P. cooperi, a dominant species of great ecological amplitude and widely used in forest industries.

  12. Impacts of land use change and climate variations on annual inflow into the Miyun Reservoir, Beijing, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiangkun Zheng; Ge Sun; Wenhong Li; Xinxiao Yu; Chi Zhang; Yuanbo Gong; Lihua Tu

    2016-01-01

    The Miyun Reservoir, the only surface water source for Beijing city, has experienced water supply decline in recent decades. Previous studies suggest that both land use change and climate contribute to the changes of water supply in this critical watershed. However, the specific causes of the decline in the Miyun Reservoir are debatable under a non-stationary climate...

  13. Social climate along the pathway of care in women's secure mental health service: variation with level of security, patient motivation, therapeutic alliance and level of disturbance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long, C G; Anagnostakis, K; Fox, E; Silaule, P; Somers, J; West, R; Webster, A

    2011-07-01

    Social climate has been measured in a variety of therapeutic settings, but there is little information about it in secure mental health services, or how it may vary along a gender specific care pathway. To assess social climate in women's secure wards and its variation by level of security and ward type, therapeutic alliance, patient motivation, treatment engagement and disturbed behaviour. Three-quarters (80, 76%) of staff and nearly all (65, 92%) of patients in the two medium-security wards and two low-security wards that comprised the unit completed the Essen Climate Evaluation Schema (EssenCES) and the California Psychotherapy Alliance Scale (CALPAS); patients also completed the Patient Motivation Inventory (PMI). Pre-assessment levels of disturbed behaviour and treatment engagement were recorded. Social climate varied according to ward type and level of security. EssenCES ratings indicative of positive social climate were associated with lower levels of security; such ratings were also associated with lower behavioural disturbance and with higher levels of motivation, treatment engagement and therapeutic alliance. This serial cross-sectional survey indicated that use of the EssenCES alone might be a good practical measure of treatment progress/responsivity. A longitudinal study would be an important next step in establishing the extent to which it would be useful in this regard. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  14. The role of demography, intra-species variation, and species distribution models in species’ projections under climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Swab, Rebecca Marie; Regan, Helen M.; Matthies, Diethart

    2015-01-01

    Organisms are projected to shift their distribution ranges under climate change. The typical way to assess range shifts is by species distribution models (SDMs), which predict species’ responses to climate based solely on projected climatic suitability. However, life history traits can impact...... species’ responses to shifting habitat suitability. Additionally, it remains unclear if differences in vital rates across populations within a species can offset or exacerbate the effects of predicted changes in climatic suitability on population viability. In order to obtain a fuller understanding...... of the response of one species to projected climatic changes, we coupled demographic processes with predicted changes in suitable habitat for the monocarpic thistle Carlina vulgaris across northern Europe. We first developed a life history model with species-specific average fecundity and survival rates...

  15. Response of C3 and C4 plants to middle-Holocene climatic variation near the prairie-forest ecotone of Minnesota, U.S.A.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tian, J; Brown, T A; Hu, F S; Stefanova, I; Nelson, D M

    2003-12-24

    Paleorecords of the middle Holocene (MH) from the North American midcontinent can offer insights into ecological responses to pervasive drought that may accompany future climatic warming. We analyzed MH sediments from West Olaf Lake (WOL) and Steel Lake (SL) in Minnesota to examine the effects of warm/dry climatic conditions on prairie-woodland ecosystems. Mineral composition and carbonate {delta}{sup 18}O were used to determine climatic variations, whereas pollen assemblages, charcoal {delta}{sup 13}C, and charcoal accumulation rates were used to reconstruct vegetation composition, C{sub 3} and C{sub 4} plant abundance, and fire. The ratio of aragonite:calcite at WOL and {delta}{sup 18}O at SL suggest that pronounced droughts occurred during the MH but that drought severity decreased with time. From charcoal {delta}{sup 13}C data we estimated that the MH abundance of C{sub 4} plants averaged 50% at WOL and 43% at SL. At WOL C{sub 4} abundance was negatively correlated with aragonite:calcite, suggesting that severe moisture deficits suppressed C{sub 4} plants in favor of weedy C{sub 3} plants (e.g., Ambrosia). As climate ameliorated C{sub 4} abundance increased (from {approx}33 to 66%) at the expense of weedy species, enhancing fuel availability and fire occurrence. In contrast, farther east at SL climate was cooler and wetter than at WOL, and C{sub 4} abundance showed no correlation with {delta}{sup 18}O-inferred aridity. Woody C{sub 3} plants (e.g., Quercus) were more abundant, biomass flammability lower, and fires less important at SL than at WOL. Our results suggest that C{sub 4} plants are adapted to warm/dry climatic conditions, but not to extreme droughts, and that the fire regime is controlled by biomass-climate interactions.

  16. Climatic origins predict variation in photoprotective leaf pigments in response to drought and low temperatures in live oaks (Quercus series Virentes).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramírez-Valiente, Jose A; Koehler, Kari; Cavender-Bares, Jeannine

    2015-05-01

    Climate is a major selective force in nature. Exploring patterns of inter- and intraspecific genetic variation in functional traits may explain how species have evolved and may continue evolving under future climate change. Photoprotective pigments play an important role in short-term responses to climate stress in plants but knowledge of their long-term role in adaptive processes is lacking. In this study, our goal was to determine how photoprotective mechanisms, morphological traits and their plasticity have evolved in live oaks (Quercus series Virentes) in response to different climatic conditions. For this purpose, seedlings originating from 11 populations from four live oak species (Quercus virginiana, Q. geminata, Q. fusiformis and Q. oleoides) were grown under contrasting common environmental conditions of temperature (tropical vs temperate) and water availability (droughted vs well-watered). Xanthophyll cycle pigments, anthocyanin accumulation, chlorophyll fluorescence parameters and leaf anatomical traits were measured. Seedlings originating from more mesic source populations of Q. oleoides and Q. fusiformis increased the xanthophyll de-epoxidation state under water-limiting conditions and showed higher phenotypic plasticity for this trait, suggesting adaptation to local climate. Likewise, seedlings originating from warmer climates had higher anthocyanin concentration in leaves under cold winter conditions but not higher de-epoxidation state. Overall, our findings suggest that (i) climate has been a key factor in shaping species and population differences in stress tolerance for live oaks, (ii) anthocyanins are used under cold stress in species with limited freezing tolerance and (iii) xanthophyll cycle pigments are used when photoprotection under drought conditions is needed. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  17. Background studies: human-induced effects on the evolution of shallow land burial sites for radioactive waste disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1987-11-01

    This report presents the results of a programme of background research on the human-induced effects on the long term evolution of shallow disposal sites for low level radioactive wastes. The work is intended to support development and use of the TIME2 simulation code. Within the context of climatic change up to the next glacial maximum three areas are addressed: planning and legislative control over site usage, biosphere state changes and intrusion. An appendix presents a discussion of some planning aspects of radioactive waste disposal. (author)

  18. Exploring the effects of climatic variables on monthly precipitation variation using a continuous wavelet-based multiscale entropy approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roushangar, Kiyoumars; Alizadeh, Farhad; Adamowski, Jan

    2018-08-01

    Understanding precipitation on a regional basis is an important component of water resources planning and management. The present study outlines a methodology based on continuous wavelet transform (CWT) and multiscale entropy (CWME), combined with self-organizing map (SOM) and k-means clustering techniques, to measure and analyze the complexity of precipitation. Historical monthly precipitation data from 1960 to 2010 at 31 rain gauges across Iran were preprocessed by CWT. The multi-resolution CWT approach segregated the major features of the original precipitation series by unfolding the structure of the time series which was often ambiguous. The entropy concept was then applied to components obtained from CWT to measure dispersion, uncertainty, disorder, and diversification of subcomponents. Based on different validity indices, k-means clustering captured homogenous areas more accurately, and additional analysis was performed based on the outcome of this approach. The 31 rain gauges in this study were clustered into 6 groups, each one having a unique CWME pattern across different time scales. The results of clustering showed that hydrologic similarity (multiscale variation of precipitation) was not based on geographic contiguity. According to the pattern of entropy across the scales, each cluster was assigned an entropy signature that provided an estimation of the entropy pattern of precipitation data in each cluster. Based on the pattern of mean CWME for each cluster, a characteristic signature was assigned, which provided an estimation of the CWME of a cluster across scales of 1-2, 3-8, and 9-13 months relative to other stations. The validity of the homogeneous clusters demonstrated the usefulness of the proposed approach to regionalize precipitation. Further analysis based on wavelet coherence (WTC) was performed by selecting central rain gauges in each cluster and analyzing against temperature, wind, Multivariate ENSO index (MEI), and East Atlantic (EA) and

  19. Variation characteristics and influences of climate factors on aridity index and its association with AO and ENSO in northern China from 1961 to 2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Kexin; Qian, Xiaoqing; Liu, Puxing; Xu, Yihong; Cao, Liguo; Hao, Yongpei; Dai, Shengpei

    2017-10-01

    Analyses of the variation characteristics for aridity index (AI) can further enhance the understanding of climate change and have effect on hydrology and agriculture. In this paper, based on the data of 283 standard meteorological stations, the temporal-spatial variations and the influences of climate factors on AI were investigated and the relationship between AI and two climate indices (the Arctic Oscillation (AO); El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)) were also assessed in northern China (NC) during the period from 1961 to 2012. The results revealed that the annual mean AI decreased at the rate of -0.031 per decade in the past 52 years and the trend was statistically significant at the 0.01 level. The Mann-Kendall (M-K) test presented that the percentages of stations with positive trends and negative trends for AI were 10 and 81.9 % (22.6 % statistically significant), respectively. Spatially, in the western part of 100° E, the extremely dry area declined and the climate tended to become wet obviously. In the eastern part of 100° E, dry area moved toward the east and the south, which resulted in the enhancement of semiarid area and the shrinkage of subhumid area. The contributions of sunshine duration and precipitation to the decline of AI are more than those of other meteorological variables in NC. Moreover, the average temperature has risen significantly and AI decreased in NC, which indicated the existence of "paradox." Relationship between climate indices (AO and ENSO) and AI demonstrated that the influence of ENSO on AI overweight the AO on AI in NC.

  20. Spatial and temporal variation in the relative contribution of density dependence, climate variation and migration to fluctuations in the size of great tit populations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grøtan, V.; Sæther, B-E.; Engen, S.; van Balen, J.H.; Perdeck, A.C.; Visser, M.E.

    2009-01-01

    1. The aim of the present study is to model the stochastic variation in the size of five populations of great tit Parus major in the Netherlands, using a combination of individual-based demographic data and time series of population fluctuations. We will examine relative contribution of

  1. Analytically based forward and inverse models of fluvial landscape evolution during temporally continuous climatic and tectonic variations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goren, Liran; Petit, Carole

    2017-04-01

    Fluvial channels respond to changing tectonic and climatic conditions by adjusting their patterns of erosion and relief. It is therefore expected that by examining these patterns, we can infer the tectonic and climatic conditions that shaped the channels. However, the potential interference between climatic and tectonic signals complicates this inference. Within the framework of the stream power model that describes incision rate of mountainous bedrock rivers, climate variability has two effects: it influences the erosive power of the river, causing local slope change, and it changes the fluvial response time that controls the rate at which tectonically and climatically induced slope breaks are communicated upstream. Because of this dual role, the fluvial response time during continuous climate change has so far been elusive, which hinders our understanding of environmental signal propagation and preservation in the fluvial topography. An analytic solution of the stream power model during general tectonic and climatic histories gives rise to a new definition of the fluvial response time. The analytic solution offers accurate predictions for landscape evolution that are hard to achieve with classical numerical schemes and thus can be used to validate and evaluate the accuracy of numerical landscape evolution models. The analytic solution together with the new definition of the fluvial response time allow inferring either the tectonic history or the climatic history from river long profiles by using simple linear inversion schemes. Analytic study of landscape evolution during periodic climate change reveals that high frequency (10-100 kyr) climatic oscillations with respect to the response time, such as Milankovitch cycles, are not expected to leave significant fingerprints in the upstream reaches of fluvial channels. Linear inversion schemes are applied to the Tinee river tributaries in the southern French Alps, where tributary long profiles are used to recover the

  2. Analysis of the Contribution Rate of Climate Change and Anthropogenic Activity to Runoff Variation in Nenjiang Basin, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liqin Dong

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The Pettitt abrupt change test method based on ArcGIS was used to undertake change-point analysis on climatic (precipitation and potential evapotranspiration; 39 meteorological stations and runoff data (27 hydrological stations from 1954–2015 in the Nenjiang basin. The hydrological sensitivity analysis method was also used to calculate the influential component of climate change upstream, mid-stream, and downstream of the Nenjiang basin, as well as the effect of anthropogenic activities on runoff. Our results show that the upstream area has the highest contribution rate of climate change, followed by the mid-stream area; the downstream area has the lowest contribution rate. Studying climate change contribution rates in various sites in the Nenjiang basin, in addition to anthropogenic activities affecting runoff, can provide the foundation for the protection and utilization of basin water resources, as well as the conservation and restoration of wetlands.

  3. Secular variation of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the North Pacific Oscillation and climatic jumps in a multi-millennial simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hunt, B.G. [CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, PO Box 1, Melbourne (Australia)

    2008-04-15

    Outputs from a 10,000-year simulation with a coupled global climatic model for present climatic conditions have been used to investigate the behaviour of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) and related phenomena. The analysis reveals a wide range of temporal variability for these Oscillations, suggesting that observations to date provide only a limited sample of possible outcomes. In addition, the simulation suggests that the current observed phase relation between the PDO and NPO may not be typical of longer-term variability. Climatic jumps appear to be a ubiquitous feature of climatic variability, and while, as observed, the most common interval between such jumps is about 20 years, intervals of up to 100 years occur in the simulation. The probability density functions of the PDO and NPO are very close to Gaussian, with the PDO being represented by an auto-regressive function of order one, while the NPO consisted of white noise. An FFT analysis of PC1 of the PDO revealed periodicities concentrated near 10 years, while for the NPO the principal periodicities were decadal to bidecadal. Global distributions of the distributions of the correlations between PC1 or the NPO and selected climatic variables were similar, and in agreement with observations. These correlations highlight the inter-relationships between these two Oscillations. The above correlations were not necessarily stable in time for a given geographical point, with transitions occurring between positive and negative extremes. Climatic jumps were identified with transitions of both the PDO and NPO, with magnitudes of importance as regards climatic perturbations. Spatial patterns of the changes associated with such jumps have global scales, and the need to consider the implications of these jumps in regard to greenhouse induced climatic change is noted. (orig.)

  4. Spatial and temporal Teleconnections of Sea Surface Temperature and Ocean Indices to regional Climate Variations across Thailand - a Pathway to understanding the Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bejranonda, Werapol; Koch, Manfred

    2010-05-01

    Thailand has a long coastline with the Pacific Ocean, as part of the Gulf of Thailand, as well as with the Indian Ocean, as part of the Andaman Sea. Because of this peculiar location, Thailand's local climate and, in particular, its water resources are strongly influenced by the mix of tropical wet, tropical dry and tropical monsoon seasons. Because of the large seasonal and interannual variations and irregularities of these, mainly ocean-driven weather patterns, particularly in recent times, large-scale water storage in huge river-fed reservoirs has a long tradition in Thailand, providing water for urban, industrial and agricultural use during long dry seasonal periods. These reservoirs which are located all over Thailand gather water primarily from monsoon-driven rainfall during the wet season which, usually, lasts from May to October. During the dry season, November to April, when the monsoon winds move northward, the air masses are drier in central and northern Thailand, with rain falling here only a few days in a month. Southern Thailand, on the other hand, which is constituted mostly by the isthmus between the two oceans, stays even hot and humid during that time period. Because of this tropical climate pattern, the surface water resources in most of Thailand strongly hinge on the monsoon movements which, in turn, depend themselves upon the thermal states of the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Therefore, the understanding of the recent strong seasonal and interannual climate variations with their detrimental effects on the availability of hydrological water resources in most parts of Thailand, must include the analysis of changes of various sea-state indices in the adjacent oceans and of their possible teleconnections with regional climate indices across this country. With the modern coupled atmospheric-ocean models being able to predict the variations of many ocean indices over a period of several months, namely, those driven by El Nino- Southern Oscillations

  5. Spatio-temporal variations in climate, primary productivity and efficiency of water and carbon use of the land cover types in Sudan and Ethiopia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khalifa, Muhammad; Elagib, Nadir Ahmed; Ribbe, Lars; Schneider, Karl

    2018-05-15

    The impact of climate variability on the Net Primary Productivity (NPP) of different land cover types and the reaction of NPP to drought conditions are still unclear, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa. This research utilizes public-domain data for the period 2000 through 2013 to analyze these aspects for several land cover types in Sudan and Ethiopia, as examples of data-scarce countries. Spatio-temporal variation in NPP, water use efficiency (WUE) and carbon use efficiency (CUE) for several land covers were correlated with variations in precipitation, temperature and drought at different time scales, i.e. 1, 3, 6 and 12months using Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) datasets. WUE and CUE were estimated as the ratios of NPP to actual evapotranspiration and NPP to Gross Primary Productivity (GPP), respectively. Results of this study revealed that NPP, WUE and CUE of the different land cover types in Ethiopia have higher magnitudes than their counterparts in Sudan. Moreover, they exhibit higher sensitivity to drought and variation in precipitation. Whereas savannah represents the most sensitive land cover to drought, croplands and permanent wetlands are the least sensitive ones. The inter-annual variation in NPP, WUE and CUE in Ethiopia is likely to be driven by a drought of time scale of three months. No statistically significant correlation was found for Sudan between the inter-annual variations in these indicators with drought at any of the time scales considered in the study. Our findings are useful from the view point of both food security for a growing population and mitigation to climate change as discussed in the present study. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Effects of future climate change, CO2 enrichment, and vegetation structure variation on hydrological processes in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Qiuan; Jiang, Hong; Peng, Changhui; Liu, Jinxun; Fang, Xiuqin; Wei, Xiaohua; Liu, Shirong; Zhou, Guomo

    2012-01-01

    Investigating the relationship between factors (climate change, atmospheric CO2 concentrations enrichment, and vegetation structure) and hydrological processes is important for understanding and predicting the interaction between the hydrosphere and biosphere. The Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS) was used to evaluate the effects of climate change, rising CO2, and vegetation structure on hydrological processes in China at the end of the 21st century. Seven simulations were implemented using the assemblage of the IPCC climate and CO2 concentration scenarios, SRES A2 and SRES B1. Analysis results suggest that (1) climate change will have increasing effects on runoff, evapotranspiration (ET), transpiration (T), and transpiration ratio (transpiration/evapotranspiration, T/E) in most hydrological regions of China except in the southernmost regions; (2) elevated CO2 concentrations will have increasing effects on runoff at the national scale, but at the hydrological region scale, the physiology effects induced by elevated CO2 concentration will depend on the vegetation types, climate conditions, and geographical background information with noticeable decreasing effects shown in the arid Inland region of China; (3) leaf area index (LAI) compensation effect and stomatal closure effect are the dominant factors on runoff in the arid Inland region and southern moist hydrological regions, respectively; (4) the magnitudes of climate change (especially the changing precipitation pattern) effects on the water cycle are much larger than those of the elevated CO2 concentration effects; however, increasing CO2 concentration will be one of the most important modifiers to the water cycle; (5) the water resource condition will be improved in northern China but depressed in southernmost China under the IPCC climate change scenarios, SRES A2 and SRES B1.

  7. Study on Variations in Climatic Variables and Their Influence on Runoff in the Manas River Basin, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lei Ren

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Climate change in Northwest China could lead to the change of the hydrological cycle and water resources. This paper assessed the influence of climate change on runoff in the Manas River basin as follows. First, the temporal trends and abrupt change points of runoff, precipitation, and mean, lowest and highest temperature in yearly scale during the period of 1961–2015 were analyzed using the Mann-Kendall (MK test. Then the correlation between runoff and climatic variables was characterized in a monthly, seasonal and yearly scale using the partial correlation method. Furthermore, three global climate models (GCMs from Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5 were bias-corrected using Equidistant Cumulative Distribution Functions (EDCDF method to reveal the future climate change during the period from 2021 to 2060 compared with the baseline period of 1961–2000. The influence of climate change on runoff was studied by simulating the runoff with the GCMs using a modified TOPMODEL considering the future snowmelt during the period from 2021 to 2060. The results showed that the runoff, precipitation, and mean, lowest and highest temperature all presented an increasing trend in yearly scale during the period of 1961–2015, and their abrupt change points were at a similar time; the runoff series was more strongly related to temperature than to precipitation in the spring, autumn and yearly scales, and the opposite was true in winter. All GCMs projected precipitation and temperature, and the runoff simulated with these GCMs were predicted to increase in the period from 2021 to 2060 compared with the baseline period of 1961–2000. These findings provide valuable information for assessing the influence of climate change on water resources in the Manas River basin, and references for water management in such regions.

  8. Large-Scale Variation in Forest Carbon Turnover Rate and its Relation to Climate - Remote Sensing vs. Global Vegetation Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carvalhais, N.; Thurner, M.; Beer, C.; Forkel, M.; Rademacher, T. T.; Santoro, M.; Tum, M.; Schmullius, C.

    2015-12-01

    While vegetation productivity is known to be strongly correlated to climate, there is a need for an improved understanding of the underlying processes of vegetation carbon turnover and their importance at a global scale. This shortcoming has been due to the lack of spatially extensive information on vegetation carbon stocks, which we recently have been able to overcome by a biomass dataset covering northern boreal and temperate forests originating from radar remote sensing. Based on state-of-the-art products on biomass and NPP, we are for the first time able to study the relation between carbon turnover rate and a set of climate indices in northern boreal and temperate forests. The implementation of climate-related mortality processes, for instance drought, fire, frost or insect effects, is often lacking or insufficient in current global vegetation models. In contrast to our observation-based findings, investigated models from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP), including HYBRID4, JeDi, JULES, LPJml, ORCHIDEE, SDGVM, and VISIT, are able to reproduce spatial climate - turnover rate relationships only to a limited extent. While most of the models compare relatively well to observation-based NPP, simulated vegetation carbon stocks are severely biased compared to our biomass dataset. Current limitations lead to considerable uncertainties in the estimated vegetation carbon turnover, contributing substantially to the forest feedback to climate change. Our results are the basis for improving mortality concepts in global vegetation models and estimating their impact on the land carbon balance.

  9. Regional climate on the breeding grounds predicts variation in the natal origin of monarch butterflies overwintering in Mexico over 38 years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flockhart, D T Tyler; Brower, Lincoln P; Ramirez, M Isabel; Hobson, Keith A; Wassenaar, Leonard I; Altizer, Sonia; Norris, D Ryan

    2017-07-01

    Addressing population declines of migratory insects requires linking populations across different portions of the annual cycle and understanding the effects of variation in weather and climate on productivity, recruitment, and patterns of long-distance movement. We used stable H and C isotopes and geospatial modeling to estimate the natal origin of monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus) in eastern North America using over 1000 monarchs collected over almost four decades at Mexican overwintering colonies. Multinomial regression was used to ascertain which climate-related factors best-predicted temporal variation in natal origin across six breeding regions. The region producing the largest proportion of overwintering monarchs was the US Midwest (mean annual proportion = 0.38; 95% CI: 0.36-0.41) followed by the north-central (0.17; 0.14-0.18), northeast (0.15; 0.11-0.16), northwest (0.12; 0.12-0.16), southwest (0.11; 0.08-0.12), and southeast (0.08; 0.07-0.11) regions. There was no evidence of directional shifts in the relative contributions of different natal regions over time, which suggests these regions are comprising the same relative proportion of the overwintering population in recent years as in the mid-1970s. Instead, interannual variation in the proportion of monarchs from each region covaried with climate, as measured by the Southern Oscillation Index and regional-specific daily maximum temperature and precipitation, which together likely dictate larval development rates and food plant condition. Our results provide the first robust long-term analysis of predictors of the natal origins of monarchs overwintering in Mexico. Conservation efforts on the breeding grounds focused on the Midwest region will likely have the greatest benefit to eastern North American migratory monarchs, but the population will likely remain sensitive to regional and stochastic weather patterns. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  10. The multivariate climatic and anthropogenic elasticity of streamflow in the Eastern United States

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yushiou Tsai

    2017-02-01

    New hydrological insights for the region: Changes in climate, LULC, and water use all significantly affected mean and drought flows. The interactions of these factors moderated the effect of precipitation on mean flow for regions where anthropogenic influences cannot be ignored. Human-induced land use changes were found to have a greater influence on drought flow than mean flow. Increased water use significantly reduced mean flow in the Northeast, where urbanization was more prevalent. Although the effect of water use on drought flow was found to be greater than its effect on mean flow, the variations of most water use effect estimates were too large to be concluded as significant.

  11. Variations in the width of the Indo-Pacific tropical rain belt over the last millennium: synthesis of stalagmite proxy records and climate model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ummenhofer, Caroline; Denniston, Rhawn

    2017-04-01

    The seasonal north-south migration of the intertropical convergence zone defines the tropical rain belt (TRB), a region of enormous terrestrial biodiversity and home to 40% of the world's population. The TRB is dynamic and has been shown to shift south as a coherent system during periods of Northern Hemisphere cooling. However, recent studies of Indo-Pacific hydroclimate suggest that during the Little Ice Age (AD 1400-1850), the TRB in this region contracted rather than being displaced uniformly southward. This behaviour is not well understood, particularly during climatic fluctuations less pronounced than those of the Little Ice Age, the largest centennial-scale cool period of the last millennium. Using state-of-the-art climate model simulations conducted as part of the Last Millennium Ensemble with the Community Earth System Model (CESM), we evaluate variations in the width of the Indo-Pacific TRB, as well as movements in the position of its northward and southward edges, across a range of timescales over the pre-Industrial portion of the last millennium (AD 850-1850). The climate model results complement a recent reconstruction of late Holocene variability of the Indo-Pacific TRB, based on a precisely-dated, monsoon-sensitive stalagmite reconstruction from northern Australia (cave KNI-51), located at the southern edge of the TRB and thus highly sensitive to variations at its southern edge. Integrating KNI-51 with a record from Dongge Cave in southern China allows a stalagmite-based TRB reconstruction. Our results reveal that rather than shifting meridionally, the Indo-Pacific TRB expanded and contracted over multidecadal/centennial time scales during the late Holocene, with symmetric weakening/strengthening of summer monsoons in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres of the Indo-Pacific (the East Asian summer monsoon in China and the Australian summer monsoon in northern Australia). Links to large-scale climatic conditions across the Indo-Pacific region

  12. Human responses and non-responses to climatic variations during the last Glacial-Interglacial transition in the eastern Mediterranean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, Neil; Woodbridge, Jessie; Bevan, Andrew; Palmisano, Alessio; Shennan, Stephen; Asouti, Eleni

    2018-03-01

    We review and evaluate human adaptations during the last glacial-interglacial climatic transition in southwest Asia. Stable isotope data imply that climatic change was synchronous across the region within the limits of dating uncertainty. Changes in vegetation, as indicated from pollen and charcoal, mirror step-wise shifts between cold-dry and warm-wet climatic conditions, but with lag effects for woody vegetation in some upland and interior areas. Palaeoenvironmental data can be set against regional archaeological evidence for human occupancy and economy from the later Epipalaeolithic to the aceramic Neolithic. Demographic change is evaluated from summed radiocarbon date probability distributions, which indicating contrasting - and in some cases opposite - population trajectories in different regions. Abrupt warming transitions at ∼14.5 and 11.7 ka BP may have acted as pacemakers for rapid cultural change in some areas, notably at the start of the Natufian and Pre-Pottery Neolithic cultures. However temporal synchroneity does not mean that climatic changes had the same environmental or societal consequences in different regions. During cold-dry time intervals, regions such as the Levant acted as refugia for plant and animal resources and human population. In areas where socio-ecological continuity was maintained through periods of adverse climate (e.g. Younger Dryas) human communities were able to respond rapidly to subsequent climatic improvement. By contrast, in areas where there was a break in settlement at these times (e.g. central Anatolia), populations were slower to react to the new opportunities provided by the interglacial world.

  13. Assessment of spatiotemporal variations in the fluvial wash-load component in the 21st century with regard to GCM climate change scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mouri, Goro

    2015-01-01

    For stream water, in which a relationship exists between wash-load concentration and discharge, an estimate of fine-sediment delivery may be obtained from a traditional fluvial wash-load rating curve. Here, we demonstrate that the remaining wash-load material load can be estimated from a traditional empirical principle on a nationwide scale. The traditional technique was applied to stream water for the whole of Japan. Four typical GCMs were selected from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble to provide the driving fields for the following regional climate models to assess the wash-load component based on rating curves: the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC), the Meteorological Research Institute Atmospheric General Circulation Model (MRI-GCM), the Hadley Centre Global Environment Model (HadGEM) and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) climate model. The simulations consisted of an ensemble, including multiple physics configurations and different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), which was used to produce monthly datasets for the whole country of Japan. The impacts of future climate changes on fluvial wash load in Japanese stream water were based on the balance of changes in hydrological factors. The annual and seasonal variations of the fluvial wash load were assessed from the result of the ensemble analysis in consideration of the Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emission scenarios. The determined results for the amount of wash load increase range from approximately 20 to 110% in the 2040s, especially along part of the Pacific Ocean and the Sea of Japan regions. In the 2090s, the amount of wash load is projected to increase by more than 50% over the whole of Japan. The assessment indicates that seasonal variation is particularly important because the rainy and typhoon seasons, which include extreme events, are the dominant seasons. Because fluvial wash-load-component turbidity

  14. Assessment of spatiotemporal variations in the fluvial wash-load component in the 21st century with regard to GCM climate change scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mouri, Goro, E-mail: mouri@rainbow.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp

    2015-11-15

    For stream water, in which a relationship exists between wash-load concentration and discharge, an estimate of fine-sediment delivery may be obtained from a traditional fluvial wash-load rating curve. Here, we demonstrate that the remaining wash-load material load can be estimated from a traditional empirical principle on a nationwide scale. The traditional technique was applied to stream water for the whole of Japan. Four typical GCMs were selected from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble to provide the driving fields for the following regional climate models to assess the wash-load component based on rating curves: the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC), the Meteorological Research Institute Atmospheric General Circulation Model (MRI-GCM), the Hadley Centre Global Environment Model (HadGEM) and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) climate model. The simulations consisted of an ensemble, including multiple physics configurations and different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), which was used to produce monthly datasets for the whole country of Japan. The impacts of future climate changes on fluvial wash load in Japanese stream water were based on the balance of changes in hydrological factors. The annual and seasonal variations of the fluvial wash load were assessed from the result of the ensemble analysis in consideration of the Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emission scenarios. The determined results for the amount of wash load increase range from approximately 20 to 110% in the 2040s, especially along part of the Pacific Ocean and the Sea of Japan regions. In the 2090s, the amount of wash load is projected to increase by more than 50% over the whole of Japan. The assessment indicates that seasonal variation is particularly important because the rainy and typhoon seasons, which include extreme events, are the dominant seasons. Because fluvial wash-load-component turbidity

  15. The intertidal community in West Greenland: Large-scale patterns and small-scale variation on ecosystem dynamics along a climate gradient

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thyrring, Jakob; Blicher, Martin; Sejr, Mikael Kristian

    are largely unknown. The West Greenland coast is north - south orientated. This provides an ideal setting to study the impact of climate change on marine species population dynamics and distribution. We investigated the latitudinal changes in the rocky intertidal community along 18° latitudes (59-77°N......) in West Greenland. Using cleared quadrats we quantified patterns in abundance, biomass and species richness in the intertidal zone. We use this data to disentangle patterns in Arctic intertidal communities at different scales. We describe the effects of different environmental drivers and species...... interactions on distribution and dynamics of intertidal species. Our results indicate that changes in distribution and abundance of foundation species can have large effects on the ecosystem. We also show that the importance of small-scale variation may be of same magnitude as large- scale variation. Only...

  16. Human-induced Terrestrial Water Storage Change: A Global Analysis using Hydrological Models and GRACE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Felfelani, F.; Pokhrel, Y. N.

    2016-12-01

    Hydrological models and data derived from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission are used to study terrestrial water storage (TWS) change; however, both have disadvantages that necessitate the integrated use of them. While GRACE doesn't disintegrate the vertical storage into its components, most models do not account for human activities. Here we use two Land Surface Models (LSMs), i.e., HiGW-MAT and PCRGLOBWB that fully couple natural and human drivers of changes in water cycle, explicitly simulating the changes in various TWS compartments. We first evaluate the models performance with GRACE observations. Then, we quantify the human footprint over global river basins located in different geographic and climate regions. To quantify human impacts, a new framework is proposed based on the GRACE observations (representing both climate variability and human activities) together with the natural simulation of LSMs using water budget equation (P-ET-R; P for precipitation, ET for evapotranspiration, and R for runoff). Finally, we examine the uncertainty in TWS simulations arising from the uncertainties in forcing data. Results indicate that, in snow-dominated regions, PCRGLOBWB generally fails to reproduce neither the interannual variability of observed TWS nor the seasonal cycle, while HiGW-MAT model shows significantly better results. In basins with human signatures, PCRGLOBWB generally shows better agreement with GRACE compared to HiGW-MAT. It is found that HiGW-MAT tends to overestimate groundwater depletion in basins with human impacts (e.g., Amudarya, Colorado, Euphrates and Indus), which results in larger negative interannual TWS trend compared to GRACE. Euphrates and Ganges river basins experience the highest human-induced TWS deficit rates (2.08 cm/yr and 1.94 cm/yr, respectively) during the simulation period of 2002-2010. Uncertainty analysis of results from the same model but with different forcing data suggests a high standard

  17. Variation in germination capacity and seedling growth of water primroses in contrasting climates from two invaded continental ranges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aquatic ecosystems are vulnerable to biological invasions, and will also be strongly impacted by climate change. Understanding the colonization dynamics of aquatic invasive plant species is of high importance for preservation of native biodiversity. Many aquatic invasive plants rely on clonal reprod...

  18. Application of remote sensing for analyzing climatic variation in the boreal and subarctic regions of Canada and for validating the Canadian Regional Climate Model; Application de la teledetection a l'analyse de la variabilite climatique des regions boreales et subarctiques du Canada et a la validation du modele regional canadien du climat

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fillol, E.J.

    2003-07-01

    This study examined climate variations over the past few decades as well as the tools used to model future climate. The study included an interpretation of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (NOAA-AVHRR) time series data at the continental spatial scale. Data collected over a period of two decades was used to study and monitor Canada's boreal ecosystem activity and to observe recent climatic change. The study involved the use of classical parameters associated with remote sensing in the visible and thermal infrared spectra for vegetation activity and land-surface temperatures. Problems associated with instrumental drift and inter-satellite adjustment were minimized by choosing indicators for the length of the growing season, annual growing degree-days and ecotone displacement. Climate variations over the past twenty years were compared with daily meteorological data of temperature, precipitation and snow cover. Rapid cycle climatic phenomena such as the El Nino and La Nina appear to have influenced the central region of Canada. The North Atlantic Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation also influenced the climate regime of Canada and annual growing degree-days. Indicators for vegetation activity and land-surface temperature suggest that a North-South disparity exists over Canada. A warming trend with an increased growing season was observed for the region north of the 55 parallel, while southern regions appear to be cooling. This study also used remote sensing to validate the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) through a comparison of ground temperature values modelled by the CRCM with composite satellite temperatures. The results indicate a small under-estimation of the CRCM ground temperature during the summer due to an overestimation of the precipitation rate. It was concluded that climate models such as the CRCM are useful in making reliable predictions of future climate trends.

  19. Interspecific variation in growth responses to tree size, competition and climate of western Canadian boreal mixed forests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Xinyu; Huang, Jian-Guo; Cheng, Jiong; Dawson, Andria; Stadt, Kenneth J; Comeau, Philip G; Chen, Han Y H

    2018-08-01

    Tree growth of boreal forest plays an important role on global carbon (C) cycle, while tree growth in the western Canadian boreal mixed forests has been predicted to be negatively affected by regional drought. Individual tree growth can be controlled by many factors, such as competition, climate, tree size and age. However, information about contributions of different factors to tree growth is still limited in this region. In order to address this uncertainty, tree rings of two dominant tree species, trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.) and white spruce (Picea glauca (Moench.) Voss), were sampled from boreal mixed forest stands distributed across Alberta, Canada. Tree growth rates over different time intervals (10years interval, 1998-2007; 20years interval, 1988-2007; 30years interval, 1978-2007) were calculated to study the effects of different factors (tree size, competition, climate, and age) on tree growth. Results indicated that tree growth of two species were both primarily affected by competition or tree size, while climatic indices showed less effects on tree growth. Growth of trembling aspen was significantly affected by inter- and intraspecific competition, while growth of white spruce was primarily influenced by tree size, followed by competition. Positive relationship was found between growth of white spruce and competition index of coniferous group, suggesting an intraspecific mutualism mechanism within coniferous group. Our results further suggested that competition driven succession was the primary process of forest composition shift in the western Canadian boreal mixed forest. Although drought stress increased tree mortality, decline of stem density under climate change released competition stress of surviving trees, which in turn sustained growth of surviving trees. Therefore, climatic indices showed fewer effects on growth of dominant tree species compared to other factors in our study. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Climate Change Effects and Impacts Assessment. A guidance manual for Local Government in New Zealand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wratt, D.; Mullan, B.; Salinger, J.; Allan, S.; Morgan, T.; Kenny, G.

    2004-05-01

    Climate change is a real and internationally recognised outcome of increased amounts of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. It will have effects over the next decades that are predictable with some level of certainty, but which will vary from place to place throughout New Zealand. The climate will also change from year to year and decade to decade due to natural processes. For example, some parts of the country often have dry summers and autumns when an El Nino climate pattern is present. Both natural fluctuations and human-induced climate changes need to be considered when developing adaptation plans and policies, rather than just 'greenhouse warming' effects on their own. Councils already address extreme weather events and climate variations as they develop plans and provide services. Climate change effects need also to be considered as part of these regulatory, assessment and planning activities. It is not necessary to develop a set of procedures for dealing separately with effects and impacts of climate change - they can be built into existing practices. Over time, climate change responses will involve iterative planning processes, keeping up-to-date with new information, monitoring changes, and reviewing the effectiveness of responses. The response to climate change involves international, national, regional, district and community consideration and action. The Guidance Manual aims to assist local government in working with its communities and making appropriate decisions.

  1. Study of the temporal and spatial variation of climate and solar radiation in th metropolitan Phoenix area. Final technical progress report, July 1, 1977-June 30, 1978

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Durrenberger, R.W.

    1978-09-29

    The research performed was designed to identify spatial or temporal variation of any atmospheric parameters that might affect the operation of devices utilizing solar energy in the metropolitan Phoenix area. The first part of the research involved the analysis of all available solar and climatic data to determine their validity and comparability. For the standard climatic parameters, few difficulties were encountered, but the task of determining comparability of solar radiation data involved many pitfalls. It was concluded that most of the solar data acquired before January 1977 could not be used for purposes of identifying spatial variability. And, a year and a half of data does not represent a long enough period of time upon which to base sound conclusions about spatial and temporal variability of solar radiation in the metropolitan Phoenix region. The data currently available to us do not indicate any great variation of solar radiation in the metropolitan Phoenix area. However, any meaningful statements about spatial and temporal variability of solar radiation in the metropolitan Phoenix area must await the acquisition of additional data from well-calibrated equipment.

  2. Millennial-scale climate variations in western Mediterranean during late Pleistocene-early Holocene: multi-proxy analyses from Padul peatbog (southern Iberian Peninsula)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Camuera, Jon; Jiménez-Moreno, Gonzalo; José Ramos-Román, María; García-Alix, Antonio; Jiménez-Espejo, Francisco; Toney, Jaime L.; Anderson, R. Scott; Kaufman, Darrell; Bright, Jordon; Sachse, Dirk

    2017-04-01

    Padul peatbog, located in southern Iberian Peninsula (western Mediterranean region) is a unique area for palaeoenvironmental studies due to its location, between arid and temperate climates. Previous studies showed that the Padul peatbog contains a continuous record of the last ca. 0.8-1 Ma, so it is an extraordinary site to identify glacial-interglacial phases as well as Heinrich and D-O events, linked to orbital- and suborbital-scale variations. In 2015, a new 42 m long core was taken from this area, providing an excellent sediment record probably for the last ca. 300,000 years. This study is focused on the paleoenvironmental and climatic reconstruction of the late Pleistocene and the early Holocene (ca. from 50,000 to 9,500 cal. yrs BP), using AMS 14C and AAR dating, high-resolution pollen analysis, lithology, continuous XRF-scanning, X-ray diffraction, magnetic susceptibility and organic geochemistry. These different proxies provide information not only about the regional environment change but also about local changes in the conditions of the Padul lake/peatbog due to variations in water temperature, pH or nutrients.

  3. Spatial and temporal variation in size of polar bear (Ursus maritimus) sexual organs and its use in pollution and climate change studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sonne, Christian; Dietz, Rune; Born, Erik W; Riget, Frank F; Leifsson, Pall S; Bechshøft, Thea Ø; Kirkegaard, Maja

    2007-11-15

    Sexual organs and their development are susceptible to atmospheric transported environmental xenoendocrine pollutants and climate change (food availability). We therefore investigated sexual organs from 55 male and 44 female East Greenland polar bears (Ursus maritimus) to obtain information about growth/size and sexual maturity. Then, the genitalia size was compared with those previously reported from Canadian and Svalbard polar bears. Growth models showed that East Greenland male polar bears reached sexual maturity around 7 years of age and females around 4 years of age. When comparing East Greenland and Svalbard polar bears, the size of baculum and uterus were significantly lower in the East Greenland polar bears (ANOVA: all p polar bears, a similar baculum pattern was found for East Greenland vs. Canadian polar bears. It is speculated whether this could be a result of the general high variation in polar bear body size, temporal distribution patterns of anthropogenic long-range transported persistent organic pollutants or climate change (decreasing food availability). The present investigation represents conservation and background data for future spatial and temporal assessments of hunting, pollution and climate change scenarios.

  4. Assessment of spatiotemporal variations in the fluvial wash-load component in the 21st century with regard to GCM climate change scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mouri, Goro

    2015-11-15

    For stream water, in which a relationship exists between wash-load concentration and discharge, an estimate of fine-sediment delivery may be obtained from a traditional fluvial wash-load rating curve. Here, we demonstrate that the remaining wash-load material load can be estimated from a traditional empirical principle on a nationwide scale. The traditional technique was applied to stream water for the whole of Japan. Four typical GCMs were selected from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble to provide the driving fields for the following regional climate models to assess the wash-load component based on rating curves: the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC), the Meteorological Research Institute Atmospheric General Circulation Model (MRI-GCM), the Hadley Centre Global Environment Model (HadGEM) and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) climate model. The simulations consisted of an ensemble, including multiple physics configurations and different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), which was used to produce monthly datasets for the whole country of Japan. The impacts of future climate changes on fluvial wash load in Japanese stream water were based on the balance of changes in hydrological factors. The annual and seasonal variations of the fluvial wash load were assessed from the result of the ensemble analysis in consideration of the Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emission scenarios. The determined results for the amount of wash load increase range from approximately 20 to 110% in the 2040s, especially along part of the Pacific Ocean and the Sea of Japan regions. In the 2090s, the amount of wash load is projected to increase by more than 50% over the whole of Japan. The assessment indicates that seasonal variation is particularly important because the rainy and typhoon seasons, which include extreme events, are the dominant seasons. Because fluvial wash-load-component turbidity

  5. Climate change vulnerability index for South African aquifers

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    received considerable attention from hydrologists during the past decade (e.g. .... ground water trends in response to human-induced climate change: ... Figure 6. Recharge function based on precipitation and slope percentage. The current ...

  6. Indian monsoon variations during three contrasting climatic periods: the Holocene, Heinrich Stadial 2 and the last interglacial-glacial transition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zorzi, Coralie; Fernanda Sanchez Goñi, Maria; Anupama, Krishnamurthy; Prasad, Srinivasan; Hanquiez, Vincent; Johnson, Joel; Giosan, Liviu

    2016-04-01

    In contrast to the East Asian and African monsoons the Indian monsoon is still poorly documented throughout the last climatic cycle (last 135,000 years). Pollen analysis from two marine sediment cores (NGHP-01-16A and NGHP-01-19B) collected from the offshore Godavari and Mahanadi basins, both located in the Core Monsoon Zone (CMZ) reveals changes in Indian summer monsoon variability and intensity during three contrasting climatic periods: the Holocene, the Heinrich Stadial (HS) 2 and the Marine Isotopic Stage (MIS) 5/4 during the ice sheet growth transition. During the first part of the Holocene between 11,300 and 4,200 cal years BP, characterized by high insolation (minimum precession, maximum obliquity), the maximum extension of the coastal forest and mangrove reflects high monsoon rainfall. This climatic regime contrasts with that of the second phase of the Holocene, from 4,200 cal years BP to the present, marked by the development of drier vegetation in a context of low insolation (maximum precession, minimum obliquity). The historical period in India is characterized by an alternation of strong and weak monsoon centennial phases that may reflect the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age, respectively. During the HS 2, a period of low insolation and extensive iceberg discharge in the North Atlantic Ocean, vegetation was dominated by grassland and dry flora indicating pronounced aridity as the result of a weak Indian summer monsoon. The MIS 5/4 glaciation, also associated with low insolation but moderate freshwater fluxes, was characterized by a weaker reduction of the Indian summer monsoon and a decrease of seasonal contrast as recorded by the expansion of dry vegetation and the development of Artemisia, respectively. Our results support model predictions suggesting that insolation changes control the long term trend of the Indian monsoon precipitation, but its millennial scale variability and intensity are instead modulated by atmospheric

  7. Interpopulational Variations in Sexual Chemical Signals of Iberian Wall Lizards May Allow Maximizing Signal Efficiency under Different Climatic Conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martín, José; Ortega, Jesús; López, Pilar

    2015-01-01

    Sexual signals used in intraspecific communication are expected to evolve to maximize efficacy under a given climatic condition. Thus, chemical secretions of lizards might evolve in the evolutionary time to ensure that signals are perfectly tuned to local humidity and temperature conditions affecting their volatility and therefore their persistence and transmission through the environment. We tested experimentally whether interpopulational altitudinal differences in chemical composition of femoral gland secretions of male Iberian wall lizards (Podarcis hispanicus) have evolved to maximize efficacy of chemical signals in different environmental conditions. Chemical analyses first showed that the characteristics of chemical signals of male lizards differed between two populations inhabiting environments with different climatic conditions in spite of the fact that these two populations are closely related genetically. We also examined experimentally whether the temporal attenuation of the chemical stimuli depended on simulated climatic conditions. Thus, we used tongue-flick essays to test whether female lizards were able to detect male scent marks maintained under different conditions of temperature and humidity by chemosensory cues alone. Chemosensory tests showed that chemical signals of males had a lower efficacy (i.e. detectability and persistence) when temperature and dryness increase, but that these effects were more detrimental for signals of the highest elevation population, which occupies naturally colder and more humid environments. We suggest that the abiotic environment may cause a selective pressure on the form and expression of sexual chemical signals. Therefore, interpopulational differences in chemical profiles of femoral secretions of male P. hispanicus lizards may reflect adaptation to maximize the efficacy of the chemical signal in different climates.

  8. Interannual abundance changes of gelatinous carnivore zooplankton unveil climate-driven hydrographic variations in the Iberian Peninsula, Portugal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Ambrosio, Mariaelena; Molinero, Juan C; Azeiteiro, Ulisses M; Pardal, Miguel A; Primo, Ana L; Nyitrai, Daniel; Marques, Sónia C

    2016-09-01

    The persistent massive blooms of gelatinous zooplankton recorded during recent decades may be indicative of marine ecosystem changes. In this study, we investigated the potential influence of the North Atlantic climate (NAO) variability on decadal abundance changes of gelatinous carnivore zooplankton in the Mondego estuary, Portugal, over the period 2003-2013. During the 11-year study, the community of gelatinous carnivores encompassed a larger diversity of hydromedusae than siphonophores; the former dominated by Obelia spp., Lizzia blondina, Clythia hemisphaerica, Liriope tetraphylla and Solmaris corona, while the latter dominated by Muggiaea atlantica. Gelatinous carnivore zooplankton displayed marked interannual variability and mounting species richness over the period examined. Their pattern of abundance shifted towards larger abundances ca. 2007 and significant phenological changes. The latter included a shift in the mean annual pattern (from unimodal to bimodal peak, prior and after 2007 respectively) and an earlier timing of the first annual peak concurrent with enhanced temperatures. These changes were concurrent with the climate-driven environmental variability mainly controlled by the NAO, which displayed larger variance after 2007 along with an enhanced upwelling activity. Structural equation modelling allowed depicting cascading effects derived from the NAO influence on regional climate and upwelling variability further shaping water temperature. Such cascading effect percolated the structure and dynamics of the community of gelatinous carnivore zooplankton in the Mondego estuary. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Simulated geographic variations of plant species richness, evenness and abundance using climatic constraints on plant functional diversity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kleidon, Axel; Pavlick, Ryan; Reu, Bjoern; Adams, Jonathan

    2009-01-01

    Among the most pronounced large-scale geographic patterns of plant biodiversity are the increase in plant species richness towards the tropics, a more even distribution of the relative abundances of plant species in the tropics, and a nearly log-normal relative abundance distribution. Here we use an individual-based plant diversity model that relates climatic constraints to feasible plant growth strategies to show that all three basic diversity patterns can be predicted merely from the climatic constraints acting upon plant ecophysiological trade-offs. Our model predicts that towards objectively 'harsher' environments, the range of feasible growth strategies resulting in reproductive plants is reduced, thus resulting in lower functional plant species richness. The reduction of evenness is attributed to a more rapid decline in productivity from the most productive to less productive plant growth strategies since the particular setup of the strategy becomes more important in maintaining high productivity in harsher environments. This approach is also able to reproduce the increase in the deviation from a log-normal distribution towards more evenly distributed communities of the tropics. Our results imply that these general biodiversity relationships can be understood primarily by considering the climatic constraints on plant ecophysiological trade-offs.

  10. Natural and Human-Induced Variations in Accretion of the Roanoke Bay-head Delta

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jalowska, A.; McKee, B. A.; Rodriguez, A. B.

    2014-12-01

    Bay-head deltas (BHD), along with their adjacent floodplains serve as storage sites for lithogenic and organic material on millennial time scales and are biogeochemically active sites on daily to decadal time scales, contributing to global nutrient and carbon cycles. BHD host unique, highly diverse ecosystems such as the pristine swamp forest and hardwood bottomlands, of the Lower Roanoke River, NC. The global value of ecosystem services provided by wetlands within natural BHD is 2.5 to 2.8 mln 2007$/km2/year. BHD are very sensitive to changes in sedimentation and to changes in the rate of sea-level rise. Core descriptions, 14C geo-chronologies and grain-size analyses show that the Roanoke BHD in North Carolina, USA experienced two episodes of retreat in late Holocene. The first event occurred around ca 3500 cal. yr. BC and is recognized as a prominent flooding surface separating the delta plain environment, below, from interdistributary bay, above. Across the flooding surface rates of sediment accumulation decreased from 1.8-3.3 mm/year to 0.5-0.6 mm/year. That change was associated with increased sediment accommodation. Sedimentation rates were keeping up with the low rates of sea-level rise until 1600-1700 AD. During that time, the delta started to rapidly accrete and the interdistributary bay was buried with delta plain and prodelta sediment. This occurred in response to the low rates of sea-level rise at that time (-0.1 to 0.47 mm/year) and the release of large quantities of sediments associated with the initiation of agriculture by European settlers in the drainage basin. The second episode of retreat was initiated during the 19th century when the rate of sea-level rose to 2.1 mm/year. During that time, agricultural practices improved, decreasing the amount of sediments delivered to the mouth of the Roanoke River. Under these conditions, the delta started backstepping. Analyses of historical maps, aerial photography, and side-scan sonar data show that between 1860 and 1954, 0.49 km2 of delta plain in the study area was lost. Following the construction of a series of dams, between 1947 and 1963 AD, the BHD decreased in size by another 0.12 km2. Furthermore, studies of bathymetry maps revealed changes in water depth from 0 to -2.25 m between 1860 and 2013, which indicate additional vertical erosion.

  11. Zoning vulnerability of climate change in variation of amount and trend of precipitation - Case Study: Great Khorasan province

    Science.gov (United States)

    Modiri, Ehsan; Modiri, Sadegh

    2015-04-01

    Climatic hazards have complex nature that many of them are beyond human control. Earth's climate is constantly fluctuating and trying to balance itself. More than 75% of Iran has arid and semi-arid climate thus assessment of climate change induced threats and vulnerabilities is essential. In order to investigate the reason for the changes in amount and trend of precipitation parameter, 17 synoptic stations have been selected in the interval of the establishment time of the station until 2013. These stations are located in three regions: Northern, Razavi and Southern Khorasan. For quality control of data in Monthly, quarterly and annual total precipitation of data were tested and checked by run test. Then probable trends in each of the areas was assessed by Kendall-tau test. Total annual precipitation of each station is the important factor that increase the sensitivity of vulnerability in the area with low rainfall. Annual amount of precipitation moving from north to south has been declining, though in different fields that they have different geomorphologic characteristics controversies occur. But clearly can be observed average of precipitation decline with decreasing latitude. There were positive trends in the annual precipitation in 6 stations, negative trends in 10 stations, as well as one station, has no trend. The remarkable notice is that all stations have a positive trend were in the northern region in the case study. These stations had been in ranging from none to Moderate classification of threats and vulnerability. After the initialization parameters to classify levels of risks and vulnerability, the two measures of mean annual precipitation and the trends of this fluctuation were combined together. This classification was created in five level for stations. Accordingly Golmakan, Ghochan, Torbate heydarieh, Bojnord and Mashhad were in none threat level. Khoor of Birjand and Boshruyeh have had complete stage of the threat level and had the greatest

  12. Morpho-physiological variation of white spruce seedlings from various seed sources and implications for deployment under climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isabelle Villeneuve

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Because of changes in climatic conditions, tree seeds originating from breeding programs may no longer be suited to sites where they are currently sent. As a consequence, new seed zones may have to be delineated. Assisted migration consists of transferring seed sources that match the future climatic conditions to which they are currently adapted. It represents a strategy that could be used to mitigate the potential negative consequences of climate change on forest productivity. Decisions with regard to the choice of the most appropriate seed sources have to rely on appropriate knowledge of morpho-physiological responses of trees. To meet this goal, white spruce (Picea glauca [Moench] Voss seedlings from eight seed orchards were evaluated during two years in a forest nursery, and at the end of the first growing season on three plantation sites located in different bioclimatic domains in Quebec.The morpho-physiological responses obtained at the end of the second growing season (2+0 in the nursery made it possible to cluster the orchards into three distinct groups. Modelling growth curves of these different groups showed that the height growth of seedlings from the second-generation and southern first-generation seed orchards was significantly higher than that of those from other orchards, by at least 6%. A multiple regression model with three climatic variables (average growing season temperature, average July temperature, length of the growing season showed that the final height of seedlings (2+0 from the first-generation seed orchards was significantly related to the local climatic conditions at the orchard sites of origin where parental trees from surrounding natural populations were sampled to provide grafts for orchard establishment. Seedling height growth was significantly affected by both seed source origins and planting sites, but the relative ranking of the different seed sources was maintained regardless of reforestation site. This

  13. Evidence from northwest European bogs shows ‘Little Ice Age’ climatic changes driven by variations in solar activity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mauquoy, D; van Geel, B; Blaauw, Maarten; van der Plicht, J

    2002-01-01

    Fluctuations in Holocene atmospheric radiocarbon concentrations have been shown to be due to variations in solar activity. Analyses of both Be-10 and C-14 nuclides confirm that production-rate changes during the Holocene were largely modulated by solar activity. Analyses of peat samples from two

  14. Using Human Induced Pluripotent Stem Cells to Model Skeletal Diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barruet, Emilie; Hsiao, Edward C

    2016-01-01

    Musculoskeletal disorders affecting the bones and joints are major health problems among children and adults. Major challenges such as the genetic origins or poor diagnostics of severe skeletal disease hinder our understanding of human skeletal diseases. The recent advent of human induced pluripotent stem cells (human iPS cells) provides an unparalleled opportunity to create human-specific models of human skeletal diseases. iPS cells have the ability to self-renew, allowing us to obtain large amounts of starting material, and have the potential to differentiate into any cell types in the body. In addition, they can carry one or more mutations responsible for the disease of interest or be genetically corrected to create isogenic controls. Our work has focused on modeling rare musculoskeletal disorders including fibrodysplasia ossificans progressive (FOP), a congenital disease of increased heterotopic ossification. In this review, we will discuss our experiences and protocols differentiating human iPS cells toward the osteogenic lineage and their application to model skeletal diseases. A number of critical challenges and exciting new approaches are also discussed, which will allow the skeletal biology field to harness the potential of human iPS cells as a critical model system for understanding diseases of abnormal skeletal formation and bone regeneration.

  15. Evaluation of human-induced vibration of continuous footbridges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    El-Robaa Ahmed

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available With the development of construction materials and the introduction of high strength steel and concrete, the human-induced vibration became a dominant criterion for the design of pedestrian bridges. Currently, longer spans and lightweight bridges have been comprised in most of design trends. This leads to lower the natural frequencies of the system which have a great effect on the dynamic performance of bridges subjected to human activities. Although the design of steel footbridges could reach the optimum level of design in terms of strength criterion, it might not reach the acceptance level for vibration condition. This will enforce the designer to choose section profiles with higher inertia to enhance stiffness of the whole system. This paper presents an overall assessment for floor vibration problem due to pedestrian induced vertical forces on continuous composite footbridges. The footfall method presented by concrete centre “CCIP-016” is adopted in this study to evaluate the response factor and acceleration of pedestrian bridges using a FEA software package “Robot Structural Analysis”.

  16. Generation of functional podocytes from human induced pluripotent stem cells

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Osele Ciampi

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Generating human podocytes in vitro could offer a unique opportunity to study human diseases. Here, we describe a simple and efficient protocol for obtaining functional podocytes in vitro from human induced pluripotent stem cells. Cells were exposed to a three-step protocol, which induced their differentiation into intermediate mesoderm, then into nephron progenitors and, finally, into mature podocytes. After differentiation, cells expressed the main podocyte markers, such as synaptopodin, WT1, α-Actinin-4, P-cadherin and nephrin at the protein and mRNA level, and showed the low proliferation rate typical of mature podocytes. Exposure to Angiotensin II significantly decreased the expression of podocyte genes and cells underwent cytoskeleton rearrangement. Cells were able to internalize albumin and self-assembled into chimeric 3D structures in combination with dissociated embryonic mouse kidney cells. Overall, these findings demonstrate the establishment of a robust protocol that, mimicking developmental stages, makes it possible to derive functional podocytes in vitro.

  17. Demographics of an ornate box turtle population experiencing minimal human-induced disturbances

    Science.gov (United States)

    Converse, S.J.; Iverson, J.B.; Savidge, J.A.

    2005-01-01

    Human-induced disturbances may threaten the viability of many turtle populations, including populations of North American box turtles. Evaluation of the potential impacts of these disturbances can be aided by long-term studies of populations subject to minimal human activity. In such a population of ornate box turtles (Terrapene ornata ornata) in western Nebraska, we examined survival rates and population growth rates from 1981-2000 based on mark-recapture data. The average annual apparent survival rate of adult males was 0.883 (SE = 0.021) and of adult females was 0.932 (SE = 0.014). Minimum winter temperature was the best of five climate variables as a predictor of adult survival. Survival rates were highest in years with low minimum winter temperatures, suggesting that global warming may result in declining survival. We estimated an average adult population growth rate (????) of 1.006 (SE = 0.065), with an estimated temporal process variance (????2) of 0.029 (95% CI = 0.005-0.176). Stochastic simulations suggest that this mean and temporal process variance would result in a 58% probability of a population decrease over a 20-year period. This research provides evidence that, unless unknown density-dependent mechanisms are operating in the adult age class, significant human disturbances, such as commercial harvest or turtle mortality on roads, represent a potential risk to box turtle populations. ?? 2005 by the Ecological Society of America.

  18. Microtubule Abnormalities Underlying Gulf War Illness in Neurons from Human-Induced Pluripotent Cells

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-09-01

    cells derived from human induced pluripotent stem cells (hiPSCs), originating from GW...AWARD NUMBER: W81XWH-15-1-0433 TITLE: Microtubule Abnormalities Underlying Gulf War Illness in Neurons from Human- Induced Pluripotent Cells ...A simple blood sample is taken from the soldier, and then transduced, using reliable established methods , to make the cells pluripotent .

  19. Atmospheric CO2 variations over the last three glacial-interglacial climatic cycles deduced from the Dome Fuji deep ice core, Antarctica using a wet extraction technique

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kawamura, Kenji; Nakazawa, Takakiyo; Aoki, Shuji

    2003-01-01

    A deep ice core drilled at Dome Fuji, East Antarctica was analyzed for the CO 2 concentration using a wet extraction method in order to reconstruct its atmospheric variations over the past 320 kyr, which includes three full glacial-interglacial climatic cycles, with a mean time resolution of about 1.1 kyr. The CO 2 concentration values derived for the past 65 kyr are very close to those obtained from other Antarctic ice cores using dry extraction methods, although the wet extraction method is generally thought to be inappropriate for the determination of the CO 2 concentration. The comparison between the CO 2 and Ca 2+ concentrations deduced from the Dome Fuji core suggests that calcium carbonate emitted from lands was mostly neutralized in the atmosphere before reaching the central part of Antarctica, or that only a small part of calcium carbonate was involved in CO 2 production during the wet extraction process. The CO 2 concentration for the past 320 kyr deduced from the Dome Fuji core varies between 190 and 300 ppmv, showing clear glacial-interglacial variations similar to the result of the Vostok ice core. However, for some periods, the concentration values of the Dome Fuji core are higher by up to 20 ppmv than those of the Vostok core. There is no clear indication that such differences are related to variations of chemical components of Ca 2+ , microparticle and acidity of the Dome Fuji core

  20. Combining wood anatomy and stable isotope variations in a 600-year multi-parameter climate reconstruction from Corsican black pine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szymczak, Sonja; Hetzer, Timo; Bräuning, Achim; Joachimski, Michael M.; Leuschner, Hanns-Hubert; Kuhlemann, Joachim

    2014-10-01

    We present a new multi-parameter dataset from Corsican black pine growing on the island of Corsica in the Western Mediterranean basin covering the period AD 1410-2008. Wood parameters measured include tree-ring width, latewood width, earlywood width, cell lumen area, cell width, cell wall thickness, modelled wood density, as well as stable carbon and oxygen isotopes. We evaluated the relationships between different parameters and determined the value of the dataset for climate reconstructions. Correlation analyses revealed that carbon isotope ratios are influenced by cell parameters determining cell size, whereas oxygen isotope ratios are influenced by cell parameters determining the amount of transportable water in the xylem. A summer (June to August) precipitation reconstruction dating back to AD 1185 was established based on tree-ring width. No long-term trends or pronounced periods with extreme high/low precipitation are recorded in our reconstruction, indicating relatively stable moisture conditions over the entire time period. By comparing the precipitation reconstruction with a summer temperature reconstruction derived from the carbon isotope chronologies, we identified summers with extreme climate conditions, i.e. warm-dry, warm-wet, cold-dry and cold-wet. Extreme climate conditions during summer months were found to influence cell parameter characteristics. Cold-wet summers promote the production of broad latewood composed of wide and thin-walled tracheids, while warm-wet summers promote the production of latewood with small thick-walled cells. The presented dataset emphasizes the potential of multi-parameter wood analysis from one tree species over long time scales.

  1. Millennial and sub-millennial scale climatic variations recorded in polar ice cores over the last glacial period

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Capron, E.; Landais, A.; Chappellaz, J.

    2010-01-01

    Since its discovery in Greenland ice cores, the millennial scale climatic variability of the last glacial period has been increasingly documented at all latitudes with studies focusing mainly on Marine Isotopic Stage 3 (MIS 3; 28–60 thousand of years before present, hereafter ka) and characterized...... that when ice sheets are extensive, Antarctica does not necessarily warm during the whole GS as the thermal bipolar seesaw model would predict, questioning the Greenland ice core temperature records as a proxy for AMOC changes throughout the glacial period....

  2. Testing the Sensory Drive Hypothesis: Geographic variation in echolocation frequencies of Geoffroy's horseshoe bat (Rhinolophidae: Rhinolophus clivosus).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacobs, David S; Catto, Sarah; Mutumi, Gregory L; Finger, Nikita; Webala, Paul W

    2017-01-01

    Geographic variation in sensory traits is usually influenced by adaptive processes because these traits are involved in crucial life-history aspects including orientation, communication, lineage recognition and mate choice. Studying this variation can therefore provide insights into lineage diversification. According to the Sensory Drive Hypothesis, lineage diversification may be driven by adaptation of sensory systems to local environments. It predicts that acoustic signals vary in association with local climatic conditions so that atmospheric attenuation is minimized and transmission of the signals maximized. To test this prediction, we investigated the influence of climatic factors (specifically relative humidity and temperature) on geographic variation in the resting frequencies of the echolocation pulses of Geoffroy's horseshoe bat, Rhinolophus clivosus. If the evolution of phenotypic variation in this lineage tracks climate variation, human induced climate change may lead to decreases in detection volumes and a reduction in foraging efficiency. A complex non-linear interaction between relative humidity and temperature affects atmospheric attenuation of sound and principal components composed of these correlated variables were, therefore, used in a linear mixed effects model to assess their contribution to observed variation in resting frequencies. A principal component composed predominantly of mean annual temperature (factor loading of -0.8455) significantly explained a proportion of the variation in resting frequency across sites (P < 0.05). Specifically, at higher relative humidity (around 60%) prevalent across the distribution of R. clivosus, increasing temperature had a strong negative effect on resting frequency. Climatic factors thus strongly influence acoustic signal divergence in this lineage, supporting the prediction of the Sensory Drive Hypothesis. The predicted future increase in temperature due to climate change is likely to decrease the

  3. Testing the Sensory Drive Hypothesis: Geographic variation in echolocation frequencies of Geoffroy's horseshoe bat (Rhinolophidae: Rhinolophus clivosus.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David S Jacobs

    Full Text Available Geographic variation in sensory traits is usually influenced by adaptive processes because these traits are involved in crucial life-history aspects including orientation, communication, lineage recognition and mate choice. Studying this variation can therefore provide insights into lineage diversification. According to the Sensory Drive Hypothesis, lineage diversification may be driven by adaptation of sensory systems to local environments. It predicts that acoustic signals vary in association with local climatic conditions so that atmospheric attenuation is minimized and transmission of the signals maximized. To test this prediction, we investigated the influence of climatic factors (specifically relative humidity and temperature on geographic variation in the resting frequencies of the echolocation pulses of Geoffroy's horseshoe bat, Rhinolophus clivosus. If the evolution of phenotypic variation in this lineage tracks climate variation, human induced climate change may lead to decreases in detection volumes and a reduction in foraging efficiency. A complex non-linear interaction between relative humidity and temperature affects atmospheric attenuation of sound and principal components composed of these correlated variables were, therefore, used in a linear mixed effects model to assess their contribution to observed variation in resting frequencies. A principal component composed predominantly of mean annual temperature (factor loading of -0.8455 significantly explained a proportion of the variation in resting frequency across sites (P < 0.05. Specifically, at higher relative humidity (around 60% prevalent across the distribution of R. clivosus, increasing temperature had a strong negative effect on resting frequency. Climatic factors thus strongly influence acoustic signal divergence in this lineage, supporting the prediction of the Sensory Drive Hypothesis. The predicted future increase in temperature due to climate change is likely to

  4. The AMMA-CATCH Gourma observatory site in Mali: Relating climatic variations to changes in vegetation, surface hydrology, fluxes and natural resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mougin, E.; Hiernaux, P.; Kergoat, L.; Grippa, M.; de Rosnay, P.; Timouk, F.; Le Dantec, V.; Demarez, V.; Lavenu, F.; Arjounin, M.; Lebel, T.; Soumaguel, N.; Ceschia, E.; Mougenot, B.; Baup, F.; Frappart, F.; Frison, P. L.; Gardelle, J.; Gruhier, C.; Jarlan, L.; Mangiarotti, S.; Sanou, B.; Tracol, Y.; Guichard, F.; Trichon, V.; Diarra, L.; Soumaré, A.; Koité, M.; Dembélé, F.; Lloyd, C.; Hanan, N. P.; Damesin, C.; Delon, C.; Serça, D.; Galy-Lacaux, C.; Seghieri, J.; Becerra, S.; Dia, H.; Gangneron, F.; Mazzega, P.

    2009-08-01

    SummaryThe Gourma site in Mali is one of the three instrumented meso-scale sites deployed in West-Africa as part of the African Monsoon Multi-disciplinary Analysis (AMMA) project. Located both in the Sahelian zone sensu stricto, and in the Saharo-Sahelian transition zone, the Gourma meso-scale window is the northernmost site of the AMMA-CATCH observatory reached by the West African Monsoon. The experimental strategy includes deployment of a variety of instruments, from local to meso-scale, dedicated to monitoring and documentation of the major variables characterizing the climate forcing, and the spatio-temporal variability of surface processes and state variables such as vegetation mass, leaf area index (LAI), soil moisture and surface fluxes. This paper describes the Gourma site, its associated instrumental network and the research activities that have been carried out since 1984. In the AMMA project, emphasis is put on the relations between climate, vegetation and surface fluxes. However, the Gourma site is also important for development and validation of satellite products, mainly due to the existence of large and relatively homogeneous surfaces. The social dimension of the water resource uses and governance is also briefly analyzed, relying on field enquiry and interviews. The climate of the Gourma region is semi-arid, daytime air temperatures are always high and annual rainfall amounts exhibit strong inter-annual and seasonal variations. Measurements sites organized along a north-south transect reveal sharp gradients in surface albedo, net radiation, vegetation production, and distribution of plant functional types. However, at any point along the gradient, surface energy budget, soil moisture and vegetation growth contrast between two main types of soil surfaces and hydrologic systems. On the one hand, sandy soils with high water infiltration rates and limited run-off support almost continuous herbaceous vegetation with scattered woody plants. On the other

  5. Modeling dust emission response to North Atlantic millennial-scale climate variations from the perspective of East European MIS 3 loess deposits

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Sima

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available European loess sequences of the Marine Isotope Stage 3 (~60–25 kyr BP show periods of strong dust accumulation alternating with episodes of reduced sedimentation, favoring soil development. In the western part of the loess belt centered around 50° N, these variations appear to have been related to the North Atlantic rapid climate changes: the Dansgaard–Oeschger (DO and Heinrich (H events. It has been recently suggested that the North Atlantic climate signal can be detected further east, in loess deposits from Stayky (50°05.65' N, 30°53.92' E, Ukraine. Here we use climate and dust emission modeling to investigate this data interpretation. We focus on the areas north and northeast of the Carpathians, where loess deposits can be found, and the corresponding main dust sources must have been located as well. The simulations were performed with the LMDZ atmospheric general circulation model and the ORCHIDEE land surface model. They represent a reference "Greenland stadial" state and two perturbations, seen as sensitivity tests with respect to changes in the North Atlantic surface conditions between 30° and 63° N: a "Greenland interstadial" and an "H event". The main source for the loess deposits in the studied area is identified as a dust deflation band, with two very active spots located west-northwest from our reference site. Emissions only occur between February and June. Differences from one deflation spot to another, and from one climate state to another, are explained by analyzing the relevant meteorological and surface variables. Over most of the source region, the annual emission fluxes in the "interstadial" experiment are 30 to 50% lower than the "stadial" values; they would only be about 20% lower if the inhibition of dust uplift by the vegetation were not taken into account. Assuming that lower emissions result in reduced dust deposition leads us to the conclusion that the loess–paleosol stratigraphic succession in the Stayky

  6. NDVI Variation and Its Responses to Climate Change on the Northern Loess Plateau of China from 1998 to 2012

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tingting Ning

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This study analyzed temporal and spatial changes of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI on the northern Loess Plateau and their correlation with climatic factors from 1998 to 2012. The possible impacts of human activities on the NDVI changes were also explored. The results showed that (1 the annual maximum NDVI showed an upward trend. The significantly increased NDVI and decreasing severe desertification areas demonstrate that the vegetation condition improved in this area. (2 Over the past decades, climate tended to be warmer and drier. However, the mean temperature significantly decreased and precipitation slightly increased from 1998 to 2012, especially in spring and summer, which was one of the major reasons for the increase in the annual maximum NDVI. Compared to temperature, vegetation was more sensitive to precipitation changes in this area. The NDVI and annual precipitation changes were highly synchronous over the first half of the year, while a 1-month time lag existed between the two variables during the second half of the year. (3 Positive human activities, including the “Grain for Green” program and successful environmental treatments at coal mining bases, were some of the other factors that improved the vegetation condition.

  7. Spatiotemporal Patterns of Ice Mass Variations and the Local Climatic Factors in the Riparian Zone of Central Valley, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Inamdar, P.; Ambinakudige, S.

    2016-12-01

    Californian icefields are natural basins of fresh water. They provide irrigation water to the farms in the central valley. We analyzed the ice mass loss rates, air temperature and land surface temperature (LST) in Sacramento and San Joaquin basins in California. The digital elevation models from Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) were used to calculate ice mass loss rate between the years 2002 and 2015. Additionally, Landsat TIR data were used to extract the land surface temperature. Data from local weather stations were analyzed to understand the spatiotemporal trends in air temperature. The results showed an overall mass recession of -0.8 ± 0.7 m w.e.a-1. We also noticed an about 60% loss in areal extent of the glaciers in the study basins between 2000 and 2015. Local climatic factors, along with the global climate patterns might have influenced the negative trends in the ice mass loss. Overall, there was an increase in the air temperature by 0.07± 0.02 °C in the central valley between 2000 and 2015. Furthermore, LST increased by 0.34 ± 0.4 °C and 0.55± 0.1 °C in the Sacramento and San Joaquin basins. Our preliminary results show the decrease in area and mass of ice mass in the basins, and changing agricultural practices in the valley.

  8. Thalidomide induces apoptosis in undifferentiated human induced pluripotent stem cells.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tachikawa, Saoko; Nishimura, Toshinobu; Nakauchi, Hiromitsu; Ohnuma, Kiyoshi

    2017-10-01

    Thalidomide, which was formerly available commercially to control the symptoms of morning sickness, is a strong teratogen that causes fetal abnormalities. However, the mechanism of thalidomide teratogenicity is not fully understood; thalidomide toxicity is not apparent in rodents, and the use of human embryos is ethically and technically untenable. In this study, we designed an experimental system featuring human-induced pluripotent stem cells (hiPSCs) to investigate the effects of thalidomide. These cells exhibit the same characteristics as those of epiblasts originating from implanted fertilized ova, which give rise to the fetus. Therefore, theoretically, thalidomide exposure during hiPSC differentiation is equivalent to that in the human fetus. We examined the effects of thalidomide on undifferentiated hiPSCs and early-differentiated hiPSCs cultured in media containing bone morphogenetic protein-4, which correspond, respectively, to epiblast (future fetus) and trophoblast (future extra-embryonic tissue). We found that only the number of undifferentiated cells was reduced. In undifferentiated cells, application of thalidomide increased the number of apoptotic and dead cells at day 2 but not day 4. Application of thalidomide did not affect the cell cycle. Furthermore, immunostaining and flow cytometric analysis revealed that thalidomide exposure had no effect on the expression of specific markers of undifferentiated and early trophectodermal differentiated cells. These results suggest that the effect of thalidomide was successfully detected in our experimental system and that thalidomide eliminated a subpopulation of undifferentiated hiPSCs. This study may help to elucidate the mechanisms underlying thalidomide teratogenicity and reveal potential strategies for safely prescribing this drug to pregnant women.

  9. Human induced pluripotent stem cells on autologous feeders.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kazutoshi Takahashi

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: For therapeutic usage of induced Pluripotent Stem (iPS cells, to accomplish xeno-free culture is critical. Previous reports have shown that human embryonic stem (ES cells can be maintained in feeder-free condition. However, absence of feeder cells can be a hostile environment for pluripotent cells and often results in karyotype abnormalities. Instead of animal feeders, human fibroblasts can be used as feeder cells of human ES cells. However, one still has to be concerned about the existence of unidentified pathogens, such as viruses and prions in these non-autologous feeders. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: This report demonstrates that human induced Pluripotent Stem (iPS cells can be established and maintained on isogenic parental feeder cells. We tested four independent human skin fibroblasts for the potential to maintain self-renewal of iPS cells. All the fibroblasts tested, as well as their conditioned medium, were capable of maintaining the undifferentiated state and normal karyotypes of iPS cells. Furthermore, human iPS cells can be generated on isogenic parental fibroblasts as feeders. These iPS cells carried on proliferation over 19 passages with undifferentiated morphologies. They expressed undifferentiated pluripotent cell markers, and could differentiate into all three germ layers via embryoid body and teratoma formation. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: These results suggest that autologous fibroblasts can be not only a source for iPS cells but also be feeder layers. Our results provide a possibility to solve the dilemma by using isogenic fibroblasts as feeder layers of iPS cells. This is an important step toward the establishment of clinical grade iPS cells.

  10. Multivariate analysis of effects of diurnal temperature and seasonal humidity variations by tropical savanna climate on the emissions of anthropogenic volatile organic compounds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Chih-Chung; Chen, Wei-Hsiang; Yuan, Chung-Shin; Lin, Chitsan

    2014-02-01

    Volatile organic compounds (VOCs), particularly those from anthropogenic sources, have been of substantial concern. In this study, the influences of diurnal temperature and seasonal humidity variations by tropical savanna climate on the distributions of VOCs from stationary industrial sources were investigated by analyzing the concentrations during the daytime and nighttime in the dry and wet seasons and assessing the results by principal component analysis (PCA) and cluster analysis. Kaohsiung City in Southern Taiwan, known for its severe VOC pollution, was chosen as the location to be examined. In the results, the VOC concentrations were lower during the daytime and in the wet season, possibly attributed to the stronger photochemical reactions and increasing inhibition of VOC emissions and transports by elevating humidity levels. Certain compounds became appreciably more important at higher humidity, as these compounds were saturated hydrocarbons with relatively low molecular weights. The influence of diurnal temperature variation on VOC distribution behaviors seemed to be less important than and interacted with that of seasonal humidity variation. Heavier aromatic hydrocarbons with more complex structures and some aliphatic compounds were found to be the main species accounting for the maximum variances of the data observed at high humidity, and the distinct grouping of compounds implied a pronounced inherent characteristic of each cluster in the observed VOC distributions. Under the influence of diurnal temperature variation, selected VOCs that may have stronger photochemical resistances and/or longer lifetimes in the atmosphere were clustered with each other in the cluster analysis, whereas the other groups might consist of compounds with different levels of vulnerability to sunlight or high temperatures. These findings prove the complications in the current knowledge regarding the VOC contaminations and providing insight for managing the adverse impacts of

  11. Differential hippocampal gene expression is associated with climate-related natural variation in memory and the hippocampus in food-caching chickadees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pravosudov, V V; Roth, T C; Forister, M L; Ladage, L D; Kramer, R; Schilkey, F; van der Linden, A M

    2013-01-01

    There is significant and often heritable variation in cognition and its underlying neural mechanisms, yet specific genetic contributions to such variation are not well characterized. Black-capped chickadees present a good model to investigate the genetic basis of cognition because they exhibit tremendous climate-related variation in memory, hippocampal morphology and neurogenesis rates throughout the North American continent, and these cognitive traits appear to have a heritable basis. We examined the hippocampal transcriptome profiles of laboratory-reared chickadees from the two most divergent populations to test whether differential gene expression in the hippocampus is associated with population differences in spatial memory, hippocampal morphology and adult hippocampal neurogenesis rates. Using high-resolution mRNA sequencing coupled to a de novo transcriptome assembly, we generated 23 295 consensus sequences, which predicted 16 206 protein sequences with 13 982 showing high similarity to known protein sequences or conserved hypothetical proteins in other species. Of these, we identified differential expression in nearly 380 genes, with 47 genes specifically linked to neurogenesis, apoptosis, synaptic function, and learning and memory processes. Many of the other differentially expressed genes, however, may be associated with other functions. Our study presents the first avian hippocampal transcriptome, and it is the first study identifying differential gene expression associated with natural variation in cognition and the hippocampus. Our results provide additional support to the hypothesis that population differences in memory, hippocampal morphology and neurogenesis in chickadees have likely resulted from natural selection that appears to act on memory and its underlying neural mechanisms. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  12. Chronology of fast climatic changes during the last glacial period; Chronologie des variations climatiques rapides pendant la derniere periode glaciaire

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bard, E.; Rostek, F.; Menot-Combes, G. [Cerege, UMR 6635 et College de France, 13 - Aix-en-Provence (France)

    2006-01-15

    The history of the glacial climate is punctuated by events occurring at the scale of a human life. They are characterised by temperature changes of large amplitude, simultaneously in Greenland and the North Atlantic. These events affected not only the surface hydrology, but also the deep circulation of this oceanic basin. A by-product of the obvious correspondence between Dansgaard-Oeschger and Heinrich in the polar ice and marine sediments is to allow, by correlation, the construction of a calendar chronology for the marine records. This chronostratigraphic approach was validated by means of radiocarbon dating of deep-sea sediments raised on the Iberian Margin. Our study also contributes to the international effort of calibration of the radiocarbon time scale by providing significant results in the interval between 33000 and 41000 years calendar BP. (authors)

  13. Context Matters for Social-Emotional Learning: Examining Variation in Program Impact by Dimensions of School Climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCormick, Meghan P; Cappella, Elise; O'Connor, Erin E; McClowry, Sandee G

    2015-09-01

    This paper examines whether three dimensions of school climate-leadership, accountability, and safety/respect-moderated the impacts of the INSIGHTS program on students' social-emotional, behavioral, and academic outcomes. Twenty-two urban schools and N = 435 low-income racial/ethnic minority students were enrolled in the study and received intervention services across the course of 2 years, in both kindergarten and first grade. Intervention effects on math and reading achievement were larger for students enrolled in schools with lower overall levels of leadership, accountability, and safety/respect at baseline. Program impacts on disruptive behaviors were greater in schools with lower levels of accountability at baseline; impacts on sustained attention were greater in schools with lower levels of safety/respect at baseline. Implications for Social-Emotional Learning program implementation, replication, and scale-up are discussed.

  14. Human-Induced Pluripotent Stem Cell Technology and Cardiomyocyte Generation: Progress and Clinical Applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Angela Di Baldassarre

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Human-induced pluripotent stem cells (hiPSCs are reprogrammed cells that have hallmarks similar to embryonic stem cells including the capacity of self-renewal and differentiation into cardiac myocytes. The improvements in reprogramming and differentiating methods achieved in the past 10 years widened the use of hiPSCs, especially in cardiac research. hiPSC-derived cardiac myocytes (CMs recapitulate phenotypic differences caused by genetic variations, making them attractive human disease models and useful tools for drug discovery and toxicology testing. In addition, hiPSCs can be used as sources of cells for cardiac regeneration in animal models. Here, we review the advances in the genetic and epigenetic control of cardiomyogenesis that underlies the significant improvement of the induced reprogramming of somatic cells to CMs; the methods used to improve scalability of throughput assays for functional screening and drug testing in vitro; the phenotypic characteristics of hiPSCs-derived CMs and their ability to rescue injured CMs through paracrine effects; we also cover the novel approaches in tissue engineering for hiPSC-derived cardiac tissue generation, and finally, their immunological features and the potential use in biomedical applications.

  15. Human-Induced Pluripotent Stem Cell Technology and Cardiomyocyte Generation: Progress and Clinical Applications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Baldassarre, Angela; Cimetta, Elisa; Bollini, Sveva; Gaggi, Giulia; Ghinassi, Barbara

    2018-05-25

    Human-induced pluripotent stem cells (hiPSCs) are reprogrammed cells that have hallmarks similar to embryonic stem cells including the capacity of self-renewal and differentiation into cardiac myocytes. The improvements in reprogramming and differentiating methods achieved in the past 10 years widened the use of hiPSCs, especially in cardiac research. hiPSC-derived cardiac myocytes (CMs) recapitulate phenotypic differences caused by genetic variations, making them attractive human disease models and useful tools for drug discovery and toxicology testing. In addition, hiPSCs can be used as sources of cells for cardiac regeneration in animal models. Here, we review the advances in the genetic and epigenetic control of cardiomyogenesis that underlies the significant improvement of the induced reprogramming of somatic cells to CMs; the methods used to improve scalability of throughput assays for functional screening and drug testing in vitro; the phenotypic characteristics of hiPSCs-derived CMs and their ability to rescue injured CMs through paracrine effects; we also cover the novel approaches in tissue engineering for hiPSC-derived cardiac tissue generation, and finally, their immunological features and the potential use in biomedical applications.

  16. A century of variation in the dependence of Greenland iceberg calving on ice sheet surface mass balance and regional climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bigg, G R; Wei, H L; Wilton, D J; Zhao, Y; Billings, S A; Hanna, E; Kadirkamanathan, V

    2014-06-08

    Iceberg calving is a major component of the total mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS). A century-long record of Greenland icebergs comes from the International Ice Patrol's record of icebergs (I48N) passing latitude 48° N, off Newfoundland. I48N exhibits strong interannual variability, with a significant increase in amplitude over recent decades. In this study, we show, through a combination of nonlinear system identification and coupled ocean-iceberg modelling, that I48N's variability is predominantly caused by fluctuation in GrIS calving discharge rather than open ocean iceberg melting. We also demonstrate that the episodic variation in iceberg discharge is strongly linked to a nonlinear combination of recent changes in the surface mass balance (SMB) of the GrIS and regional atmospheric and oceanic climate variability, on the scale of the previous 1-3 years, with the dominant causal mechanism shifting between glaciological (SMB) and climatic (ocean temperature) over time. We suggest that this is a change in whether glacial run-off or under-ice melting is dominant, respectively. We also suggest that GrIS calving discharge is episodic on at least a regional scale and has recently been increasing significantly, largely as a result of west Greenland sources.

  17. Climatic response of stable isotope variations in wood cellulose of pine (Pinus sylvestris l.) and their tree-ring width on the Kola Peninsula, north-western Russia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boettger, T.; Hiller, A.; Gehre, M.; Friedrich, M.; Kremenetski, C.

    2002-01-01

    The Kola Peninsula region of northwestern Russia, adjacent to relatively well studied Scandinavian areas, is climatically affected by not only the Gulf Stream and the North Atlantic but also the Eurasian continent. Living and subfossil pine trees from the Khibiny mountains on the Kola Peninsula were analysed for carbon, oxygen and hydrogen isotope composition and for tree-ring width. Comparisons of local meteorological and tree-ring data revealed significant correlations. δ 13 C and δ 18 O values are particularly sensitive to changes in the temperature in July and August and to precipitation in the winter months of the previous year, respectively. On average, 13 C in the cellulose of pine trees between c. 1000 and 1300 AD is enriched by δ values of around 1 per mille compared to the modern trees from this region. This indicates a distinctly warmer summer climate at that time (the Medieval Warm epoch in Europe) than recently observed. The δ 18 O values of wood cellulose and the δ 2 H values of non-exchangeable hydrogen of tree cellulose from both fossil and modern samples cover a wide range between around 22 and 29 per mille and between about -80 and -120 per mille vs. SMOW, respectively. This suggests variations in the seasonal distribution of precipitation at that time, assuming its source has remained the same as in the past. (author)

  18. Influences of climate change on area variation of Qinghai Lake on Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau since 1980s.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Lingyi; Duan, Xiaofang; Kong, Fanjin; Zhang, Fan; Zheng, Yangfan; Li, Zhen; Mei, Yi; Zhao, Yanwen; Hu, Shuijin

    2018-05-09

    Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau is the most sensitive region to global warming on Earth. Qinghai Lake, the largest lake on the plateau, has experienced evident area variation during the past several decades. To quantify the area changes of Qinghai Lake, a satellite-based survey based on Landsat images from the 1980s to 2010s has been performed. In addition, meteorological data from all the seven available stations on Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau has been analyzed. Area of Qinghai Lake shrank ~2% during 1987-2005, and then increased ~3% from 2005-2016. Meanwhile, the average annual temperature increased 0.319 °C/10 y in the past 50 years, where the value is 0.415 °C/10 y from 2005-2016. The structural equation modeling (SEM) shows that precipitation is the primary factor influencing the area of Qinghai Lake. Moreover, temperature might be tightly correlated with precipitation, snow line, and evaporation, thereby indirectly causes alternations of the lake area. This study elucidated the significant area variation of water body on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau under global warming since 1980s.

  19. Implications of human induced changes on the distribution of important plant species in the northwestern coastal desert of Egypt

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marwa Waseem Halmy

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The application of species distribution modeling in deserts is a useful tool for mapping species and assessing the impact of human induced changes on individual species. Such applications are still rare, and this may be attributed to the fact that much of the arid lands and deserts around the world are located in inaccessible areas. Few studies have conducted spatially explicit modeling of plant species distribution in Egypt. The random forest modeling approach was applied to climatic and land-surface parameters to predict the distribution of ten important plant species in an arid landscape in the northwestern coastal desert of Egypt. The impact of changes in land use and climate on the distribution of the plant species was assessed. The results indicate that the changes in land use in the area have resulted in habitat loss for all the modeled species. Projected future changes in land use reveals that all the modeled species will continue to suffer habitat loss. The projected impact of modeled climate scenarios (A1B, A2A and B2A on the distribution of the modeled species by 2040 varied. Some of the species were projected to be adversely affected by the changes in climate, while other species are expected to benefit from these changes. The combined impact of the changes in land use and climate pose serious threats to most of the modeled species. The study found that all the species are expected to suffer loss in habitat, except Gymnocarpos decanderus. The study highlights the importance of assessing the impact of land use/climate change scenarios on other species of restricted distribution in the area and can help shape policy and mitigation measures directed toward biodiversity conservation in Egypt.

  20. Characterizing and understanding the climatic determinism of high- to low-frequency variations in precipitation in northwestern France using a coupled wavelet multiresolution/statistical downscaling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Massei, Nicolas; Dieppois, Bastien; Hannah, David; Lavers, David; Fossa, Manuel; Laignel, Benoit; Debret, Maxime

    2017-04-01

    Geophysical signals oscillate over several time-scales that explain different amount of their overall variability and may be related to different physical processes. Characterizing and understanding such variabilities in hydrological variations and investigating their determinism is one important issue in a context of climate change, as these variabilities can be occasionally superimposed to long-term trend possibly due to climate change. It is also important to refine our understanding of time-scale dependent linkages between large-scale climatic variations and hydrological responses on the regional or local-scale. Here we investigate such links by conducting a wavelet multiresolution statistical dowscaling approach of precipitation in northwestern France (Seine river catchment) over 1950-2016 using sea level pressure (SLP) and sea surface temperature (SST) as indicators of atmospheric and oceanic circulations, respectively. Previous results demonstrated that including multiresolution decomposition in a statistical downscaling model (within a so-called multiresolution ESD model) using SLP as large-scale predictor greatly improved simulation of low-frequency, i.e. interannual to interdecadal, fluctuations observed in precipitation. Building on these results, continuous wavelet transform of simulated precipiation using multiresolution ESD confirmed the good performance of the model to better explain variability at all time-scales. A sensitivity analysis of the model to the choice of the scale and wavelet function used was also tested. It appeared that whatever the wavelet used, the model performed similarly. The spatial patterns of SLP found as the best predictors for all time-scales, which resulted from the wavelet decomposition, revealed different structures according to time-scale, showing possible different determinisms. More particularly, some low-frequency components ( 3.2-yr and 19.3-yr) showed a much wide-spread spatial extentsion across the Atlantic

  1. Simulation with an O-AGCM of the influence of variations of the solar constant on the global climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cubasch, U. [Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum (DKRZ), Hamburg (Germany); Hegerl, G.C. [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg (Germany); Voss, R. [Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum (DKRZ), Hamburg (Germany); Waszkewitz, J. [Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum (DKRZ), Hamburg (Germany); Crowley, T.J. [Texas A and M Univ., College Station, TX (United States). Dept. of Oceanography

    1996-07-01

    Two simulations have been carried out with a global coupled ocean-atmosphere circulation model to study the potential impact of solar variability on climate. The Hoyt and Schatten estimate of solar variability from 1700 to 1992 has been used to force the model. Results indicate that the near-surface temperature simulated by the model is dominated by the long periodic solar fluctuations (Gleissberg cycle), with global mean temperatures varying by about 0.5 K. Further results indicate that solar variability induces a similar pattern of surface temperature change as the increase of greenhouse gases, i.e. an increase of the land-sea contrast. However, the solarinduced warming pattern over the ocean during northern hemispheric summer is more centered over the northern hemisphere subtropics, compared to a more uniform warming associated with the increase in greenhouse gases. Finally, the magnitude of the estimated solar warming during the 20th century is not sufficient to explain the observed warming. The recent observed 30-year trends are inconsistent with the solar forcing simulation at an estimated 90% significance level. Also, the observed trend pattern agrees better with the greenhouse warming pattern. (orig.)

  2. Spatiotemporal Variations in the Water Storage of Closed Lakes on the Tibetan Plateau and Their Climatic Responses from 1976-2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, L.; Yang, R.

    2016-12-01

    The water storage of lakes responds sensitively to variations in climate. At the same time, lakes have an important influence on climate by altering the energy exchange between the land surface and the atmosphere. In the present study, water storage changes in 114 closed lakes with areas greater than 50 km2 on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) were estimated by integrating SRTM DEM (Shuttle Radar Topography Mission, Digital Elevation Model) and LandSat images. The results reveal that the total water storage increased by 102.64 Gt from 1976-2013, a rate of 2.77Gt•yr-1. Specifically, the storage changes between 2000 and 2013 account for 97% of the changes during the entire study period, resulting in an overall positive water balance of 7.67 Gt•yr-1. However, the pattern of water balance changes of the studied lakes exhibit significant differences from 1976-2013, and four main patterns were distinguished by using k-mean clustering analysis: a slightly increasing followed by a rapid increase (the southeastern part of the endorheic region of the TP); an initially decreasing water balance, followed by an increase from 1990 (the center and west part of the endorheic region); an initially decreasing, but followed by an increase from 2000 (the northeast part of the endorheic region); and a mainly decreasing water balance (the southern outflow region of the TP). Precipitation was the dominant factor affecting changes in lake water balance; in particular, a large precipitation increase resulted in a dramatic increase of lake water storage from 2000-2013. The relative influence of temperature was opposite before and after 2000. In addition, water storage changes of lakes with and without glaciers melt water input were compared and the results show the influence of glaciers varied. Distinct regional patterns in water storage change indicate clear differences in the climatic sensitivity of lakes in time and space. The findings have important implications both for the interpretation

  3. Thermal reaction norms and the scale of temperature variation: latitudinal vulnerability of intertidal nacellid limpets to climate change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simon A Morley

    Full Text Available The thermal reaction norms of 4 closely related intertidal Nacellid limpets, Antarctic (Nacella concinna, New Zealand (Cellana ornata, Australia (C. tramoserica and Singapore (C. radiata, were compared across environments with different temperature magnitude, variability and predictability, to test their relative vulnerability to different scales of climate warming. Lethal limits were measured alongside a newly developed metric of "duration tenacity", which was tested at different temperatures to calculate the thermal reaction norm of limpet adductor muscle fatigue. Except in C. tramoserica which had a wide optimum range with two break points, duration tenacity did not follow a typical aerobic capacity curve but was best described by a single break point at an optimum temperature. Thermal reaction norms were shifted to warmer temperatures in warmer environments; the optimum temperature for tenacity (T(opt increased from 1.0°C (N. concinna to 14.3°C (C. ornata to 18.0°C (an average for the optimum range of C. tramoserica to 27.6°C (C. radiata. The temperature limits for duration tenacity of the 4 species were most consistently correlated with both maximum sea surface temperature and summer maximum in situ habitat logger temperature. Tropical C. radiata, which lives in the least variable and most predictable environment, generally had the lowest warming tolerance and thermal safety margin (WT and TSM; respectively the thermal buffer of CT(max and T(opt over habitat temperature. However, the two temperate species, C. ornata and C. tramoserica, which live in a variable and seasonally unpredictable microhabitat, had the lowest TSM relative to in situ logger temperature. N. concinna which lives in the most variable, but seasonally predictable microhabitat, generally had the highest TSMs. Intertidal animals live at the highly variable interface between terrestrial and marine biomes and even small changes in the magnitude and predictability of their

  4. Thermal reaction norms and the scale of temperature variation: latitudinal vulnerability of intertidal nacellid limpets to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morley, Simon A; Martin, Stephanie M; Day, Robert W; Ericson, Jess; Lai, Chien-Houng; Lamare, Miles; Tan, Koh-Siang; Thorne, Michael A S; Peck, Lloyd S

    2012-01-01

    The thermal reaction norms of 4 closely related intertidal Nacellid limpets, Antarctic (Nacella concinna), New Zealand (Cellana ornata), Australia (C. tramoserica) and Singapore (C. radiata), were compared across environments with different temperature magnitude, variability and predictability, to test their relative vulnerability to different scales of climate warming. Lethal limits were measured alongside a newly developed metric of "duration tenacity", which was tested at different temperatures to calculate the thermal reaction norm of limpet adductor muscle fatigue. Except in C. tramoserica which had a wide optimum range with two break points, duration tenacity did not follow a typical aerobic capacity curve but was best described by a single break point at an optimum temperature. Thermal reaction norms were shifted to warmer temperatures in warmer environments; the optimum temperature for tenacity (T(opt)) increased from 1.0°C (N. concinna) to 14.3°C (C. ornata) to 18.0°C (an average for the optimum range of C. tramoserica) to 27.6°C (C. radiata). The temperature limits for duration tenacity of the 4 species were most consistently correlated with both maximum sea surface temperature and summer maximum in situ habitat logger temperature. Tropical C. radiata, which lives in the least variable and most predictable environment, generally had the lowest warming tolerance and thermal safety margin (WT and TSM; respectively the thermal buffer of CT(max) and T(opt) over habitat temperature). However, the two temperate species, C. ornata and C. tramoserica, which live in a variable and seasonally unpredictable microhabitat, had the lowest TSM relative to in situ logger temperature. N. concinna which lives in the most variable, but seasonally predictable microhabitat, generally had the highest TSMs. Intertidal animals live at the highly variable interface between terrestrial and marine biomes and even small changes in the magnitude and predictability of their

  5. Changes in Stream Flow and Their Relationships with Climatic Variations and Anthropogenic Activities in the Poyang Lake Basin, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chaojun Gu

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The Poyang Lake Basin has been suffering from severe water problems such as floods and droughts. This has led to great adverse impacts on local ecosystems and water resource utilization. It is therefore important to understand stream flow changes and their driving factors. In this paper, the dynamics of stream flow and precipitation in the Poyang Lake Basin between 1961 and 2012 were evaluated with the Mann–Kendall test, Theil–Sen approaches, Pettitt test, and Pearson’s correlation. Stream flow was measured at the outlets of five major tributaries of Poyang Lake, while precipitation was recorded by fourteen meteorological stations located within the Poyang Lake Basin. Results showed that annual stream flow of all tributaries and the precipitation over the study area had insignificant (P > 0.1 temporal trends and change points, while significant trends and shifts were found in monthly scale. Stream flow concentration indices (SCI at Waizhou, Meigang, and Wanjiabu stations showed significant (P < 0.05 decreasing trends with change points emerging in 1984 at Waizhou and 1978 at Wanjiabu, while there was no significant temporal trend and change point detected for the precipitation concentration indices (PCI. Correlation analysis indicated that area-average stream flow was closely related to area-average precipitation, but area-average SCI was insignificantly correlated with area-average PCI after change point (1984. El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO had greater impacts on stream flow than other climate indices, and La Niña events played a more important role in stream flow changes than EI Niño. Human activities, particularly in terms of reservoir constructions, largely altered the intra-annual distribution of stream flow but its effects on the amount of stream flow were relatively low. Results of this study provided a useful reference to regional water resource management and the prevention of flood and drought disasters.

  6. Attributable Human-Induced Changes in the Likelihood and Magnitude of the Observed Extreme Precipitation during Hurricane Harvey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Risser, Mark D.; Wehner, Michael F.

    2017-12-01

    Record rainfall amounts were recorded during Hurricane Harvey in the Houston, Texas, area, leading to widespread flooding. We analyze observed precipitation from the Global Historical Climatology Network with a covariate-based extreme value statistical analysis, accounting for both the external influence of global warming and the internal influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation. We find that human-induced climate change likely increased the chances of the observed precipitation accumulations during Hurricane Harvey in the most affected areas of Houston by a factor of at least 3.5. Further, precipitation accumulations in these areas were likely increased by at least 18.8% (best estimate of 37.7%), which is larger than the 6-7% associated with an attributable warming of 1°C in the Gulf of Mexico and Clausius-Clapeyron scaling. In a Granger causality sense, these statements provide lower bounds on the impact of climate change and motivate further attribution studies using dynamical climate models.

  7. Generation of Human Induced Pluripotent Stem Cells from Peripheral Blood Mononuclear Cells Using Sendai Virus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soares, Filipa A C; Pedersen, Roger A; Vallier, Ludovic

    2016-01-01

    This protocol describes the efficient isolation of peripheral blood mononuclear cells from circulating blood via density gradient centrifugation and subsequent generation of integration-free human induced pluripotent stem cells. Peripheral blood mononuclear cells are cultured for 9 days to allow expansion of the erythroblast population. The erythroblasts are then used to derive human induced pluripotent stem cells using Sendai viral vectors, each expressing one of the four reprogramming factors Oct4, Sox2, Klf4, and c-Myc.

  8. Climatic and watershed controls of dissolved organic matter variation in streams across a gradient of agricultural land use.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shang, Peng; Lu, YueHan; Du, YingXun; Jaffé, Rudolf; Findlay, Robert H; Wynn, Anne

    2018-01-15

    Human land use has led to significant changes in the character of dissolved organic matter (DOM) in lotic ecosystems. These changes are expected to have important environmental and ecological consequences. However, high spatiotemporal variability has been reported in previous studies, and the underlying mechanisms remain inadequately understood. This study assessed variation in the properties of stream water DOM within watersheds across a gradient of agricultural land use with grazing pasture lands as the dominant agricultural type in the southeastern United States. We collected water samples under baseflow conditions five times over eight months from a regional group of first- to fourth-order streams. Samples were analyzed for dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentration, DOM quality based on absorbance and fluorescence properties, as well as DOM biodegradability. We found that air temperature and antecedent hydrological conditions (indicated by antecedent precipitation index and stream water sodium concentrations) positively influenced stream water DOC concentration, DOM fluorescence index, and the proportion of soil-derived, microbial humic fluorescence. This observation suggests that elevated production and release of microbial DOM in soils facilitated by high temperature, in conjunction with strong soil-stream hydrological connectivity, were important drivers for changes in the concentration and composition of stream water DOM. By comparison, watersheds with a high percentage of agricultural land use showed higher DOC concentration, larger proportion of soil-derived, humic-like DOM compounds, and higher DOC biodegradability. These observations reflect preferential mobilization of humic DOM compounds from shallow organic matter-rich soils in agricultural watersheds, likely due to enhanced soil erosion, organic matter oxidation and relatively shallow soil-to-stream flow paths. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Developing Integrated Remote Sensing and Geographical Information Sciences Procedures to Assess Impacts of Climate Variations on Spatio-Temporal Distribution of Mangroves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qaisar, Maha

    2016-07-01

    Pakistan's periled treasures of mangroves require protection from devastating anthropogenic activities, which can only be achieved through the identification and management of this habitat. The primary objective of this study is to identify the potential habitat of mangroves along the coastline of Pakistan with the help of Remote Sensing (RS) and Geographical Information System (GIS) techniques. Once the mangroves were identified, species of mangroves need to be separated through Object Based Image Analysis (OBIA) which gave the area of mangroves and non mangroves sites. Later other parameters of Sea Surface Temperature, Sea Surface Salinity, chlorophyll-a along with altimetry data were used to assess the climatic variations on the spatio-temporal distribution of mangroves. Since mangroves provide economical, ecological, biological indication of Coastal Change or Sea Level Rise. Therefore, this provides a strong platform to assess the climatic variations which are posing negative impacts on the mangroves ecosystem. The results indicate that mangroves are present throughout along the coastline, proving that Pakistan is rich in these diverse ecosystems. Pakistan being at important geo strategic position can also benefit from its vast mangroves and other coastal resources such as coral reefs and fish varieties. Moreover, coastal zone management through involvement of the local community and establishment of Marine Protected Area (MPA) is the need of the hour to avoid deforestation of mangroves, which can prove to be deadly damaging for the fish populace since it provides habitats to various marine animals. However, the established relationship among SST, SSS, chlorophyll-a and altimetry data assisted to know the suitable sites for mangroves. But due to enhanced climatic impacts these relationships are distorted which has posed devastating effects on the growth and distribution of mangroves. Study area was Karachi Coast, Pakistan. The total area of Karachi is about 70

  10. Impact of short-term climate variation and hydrology change on thermal structure and water quality of a canyon-shaped, stratified reservoir.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Wei-Xing; Huang, Ting-Lin; Li, Xuan; Zhang, Hai-Han; Ju, Tuo

    2015-12-01

    Climate variation can have obvious effects on hydrologic conditions, which in turn can have direct consequences for the thermal regime and quality of water for human use. In this research, weekly surveys were conducted from 2011 to 2013 to investigate how changes of climate and hydrology affect the thermal regime and water quality at the Heihe Reservoir. Our results show that the hydrology change during the flooding season can both increase the oxygen concentration and accelerate the consumption of dissolved oxygen. Continuous heavy rainfall events occurred in September 2011 caused the mixing of the entire reservoir, which led to an increase in dissolved oxygen at the bottom until the next year. Significant turbid density flow was observed following the extreme rainfall events in 2012 which leading to a rapid increase in turbidity at the bottom (up to 3000 NTU). Though the dissolved oxygen at the bottom increased from 0 to 9.02 mg/L after the rainfall event, it became anoxic within 20 days due to the increase of water oxygen demand caused by the suspended matter brought by the storm runoff. The release of compounds from the sediments was more serious during the anaerobic period after the rainfall events and the concentration of total iron, total phosphorus, and total manganese at the bottom reached 1.778, 0.102, and 0.125 mg/L. The improved water-lifting aerators kept on running after the storm runoff occurred in 2013 to avoid the deterioration of water quality during anaerobic conditions and ensured the good water quality during the mixing period. Our results suggest preventive and remediation actions that are necessary to improve water quality and status.

  11. Using the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Datasets to Evaluate Climate Models in Simulating Diurnal and Seasonal Variations of Tropical Clouds

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Hailong [Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington; Burleyson, Casey D. [Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington; Ma, Po-Lun [Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington; Fast, Jerome D. [Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington; Rasch, Philip J. [Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington

    2018-04-01

    We use the long-term Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) datasets collected at the three Tropical Western Pacific (TWP) sites as a tropical testbed to evaluate the ability of the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM5) to simulate the various types of clouds, their seasonal and diurnal variations, and their impact on surface radiation. We conducted a series of CAM5 simulations at various horizontal grid spacing (around 2°, 1°, 0.5°, and 0.25°) with meteorological constraints from reanalysis. Model biases in the seasonal cycle of cloudiness are found to be weakly dependent on model resolution. Positive biases (up to 20%) in the annual mean total cloud fraction appear mostly in stratiform ice clouds. Higher-resolution simulations do reduce the positive bias in the frequency of ice clouds, but they inadvertently increase the negative biases in convective clouds and low-level liquid clouds, leading to a positive bias in annual mean shortwave fluxes at the sites, as high as 65 W m-2 in the 0.25° simulation. Such resolution-dependent biases in clouds can adversely lead to biases in ambient thermodynamic properties and, in turn, feedback on clouds. Both the CAM5 model and ARM observations show distinct diurnal cycles in total, stratiform and convective cloud fractions; however, they are out-of-phase by 12 hours and the biases vary by site. Our results suggest that biases in deep convection affect the vertical distribution and diurnal cycle of stratiform clouds through the transport of vapor and/or the detrainment of liquid and ice. We also found that the modelled gridmean surface longwave fluxes are systematically larger than site measurements when the grid that the ARM sites reside in is partially covered by ocean. The modeled longwave fluxes at such sites also lack a discernable diurnal cycle because the ocean part of the grid is warmer and less sensitive to radiative heating/cooling compared to land. Higher spatial resolution is more helpful is this regard. Our

  12. Contribution of geodiversity, climate and spatial variables for biodiversity across a gradient of human influence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tukiainen, Helena; Alahuhta, Janne; Ala-Hulkko, Terhi; Field, Richard; Lampinen, Raino; Hjort, Jan

    2016-04-01

    Implementation of geodiversity may provide new perspectives for nature conservation. The relation between geodiversity and biodiversity has been established in recent studies but remains underexplored in environments with high human pressure. In this study, we explored the effect of geodiversity (i.e. geological, hydrological and geomorphological diversity), climate and spatial variables on biodiversity (vascular plant species richness) in environments with different human impact. The study area ranged trough the boreal vegetation zone in Finland and included altogether 1401 1-km2 grid cells from urban, rural and natural environments. The contribution of environmental variable groups for species diversity in different environments was statistically analyzed with variation partitioning method. According to the results, the contribution of geodiversity decreased and the contribution of climate and spatial variables increased as the land use became more human-induced. Hence, the connection between geodiversity and species richness was most pronounced in natural state environments.

  13. Lagrangian process attribution of isotopic variations in near-surface water vapour in a 30-year regional climate simulation over Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dütsch, Marina; Pfahl, Stephan; Meyer, Miro; Wernli, Heini

    2018-02-01

    Stable water isotopes are naturally available tracers of moisture in the atmosphere. Due to isotopic fractionation, they record information about condensation and evaporation processes during the transport of air parcels, and therefore present a valuable means for studying the global water cycle. However, the meteorological processes driving isotopic variations are complex and not very well understood so far, in particular on short (hourly to daily) timescales. This study presents a Lagrangian method for attributing the isotopic composition of air parcels to meteorological processes, which provides new insight into the isotopic history of air parcels. It is based on the temporal evolution of the isotope ratios, the humidity, the temperature, and the location of the air parcels. Here these values are extracted along 7-day backward trajectories started every 6 hours from near the surface in a 30-year regional climate simulation over Europe with the isotope-enabled version of the model of the Consortium for Small-Scale Modelling (COSMOiso). The COSMOiso simulation has a horizontal resolution of 0.25° and is driven at the lateral boundaries by a T106 global climate simulation with the isotope-enabled version of the European Centre Hamburg model (ECHAMwiso). Both simulations are validated against measurements from the Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation (GNIP), which shows that nesting COSMOiso within ECHAMwiso improves the representation of δ2H and deuterium excess in monthly accumulated precipitation. The method considers all isotopic changes that occur inside the COSMOiso model domain, which, on average, correspond to more than half of the mean and variability in both δ2H and deuterium excess at the air parcels' arrival points. Along every trajectory, the variations in the isotope values are quantitatively decomposed into eight process categories (evaporation from the ocean, evapotranspiration from land, mixing with moister air, mixing with drier air

  14. Lagrangian process attribution of isotopic variations in near-surface water vapour in a 30-year regional climate simulation over Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Dütsch

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Stable water isotopes are naturally available tracers of moisture in the atmosphere. Due to isotopic fractionation, they record information about condensation and evaporation processes during the transport of air parcels, and therefore present a valuable means for studying the global water cycle. However, the meteorological processes driving isotopic variations are complex and not very well understood so far, in particular on short (hourly to daily timescales. This study presents a Lagrangian method for attributing the isotopic composition of air parcels to meteorological processes, which provides new insight into the isotopic history of air parcels. It is based on the temporal evolution of the isotope ratios, the humidity, the temperature, and the location of the air parcels. Here these values are extracted along 7-day backward trajectories started every 6 hours from near the surface in a 30-year regional climate simulation over Europe with the isotope-enabled version of the model of the Consortium for Small-Scale Modelling (COSMOiso. The COSMOiso simulation has a horizontal resolution of 0.25° and is driven at the lateral boundaries by a T106 global climate simulation with the isotope-enabled version of the European Centre Hamburg model (ECHAMwiso. Both simulations are validated against measurements from the Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation (GNIP, which shows that nesting COSMOiso within ECHAMwiso improves the representation of δ2H and deuterium excess in monthly accumulated precipitation. The method considers all isotopic changes that occur inside the COSMOiso model domain, which, on average, correspond to more than half of the mean and variability in both δ2H and deuterium excess at the air parcels' arrival points. Along every trajectory, the variations in the isotope values are quantitatively decomposed into eight process categories (evaporation from the ocean, evapotranspiration from land, mixing with moister air, mixing

  15. Strong contributions of local background climate to urban heat islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Lei; Lee, Xuhui; Smith, Ronald B.; Oleson, Keith

    2014-07-01

    The urban heat island (UHI), a common phenomenon in which surface temperatures are higher in urban areas than in surrounding rural areas, represents one of the most significant human-induced changes to Earth's surface climate. Even though they are localized hotspots in the landscape, UHIs have a profound impact on the lives of urban residents, who comprise more than half of the world's population. A barrier to UHI mitigation is the lack of quantitative attribution of the various contributions to UHI intensity (expressed as the temperature difference between urban and rural areas, ΔT). A common perception is that reduction in evaporative cooling in urban land is the dominant driver of ΔT (ref. 5). Here we use a climate model to show that, for cities across North America, geographic variations in daytime ΔT are largely explained by variations in the efficiency with which urban and rural areas convect heat to the lower atmosphere. If urban areas are aerodynamically smoother than surrounding rural areas, urban heat dissipation is relatively less efficient and urban warming occurs (and vice versa). This convection effect depends on the local background climate, increasing daytime ΔT by 3.0 +/- 0.3 kelvin (mean and standard error) in humid climates but decreasing ΔT by 1.5 +/- 0.2 kelvin in dry climates. In the humid eastern United States, there is evidence of higher ΔT in drier years. These relationships imply that UHIs will exacerbate heatwave stress on human health in wet climates where high temperature effects are already compounded by high air humidity and in drier years when positive temperature anomalies may be reinforced by a precipitation-temperature feedback. Our results support albedo management as a viable means of reducing ΔT on large scales.

  16. Ground Water and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Richard G.; Scanlon, Bridget; Doell, Petra; Rodell, Matt; van Beek, Rens; Wada, Yoshihide; Longuevergne, Laurent; Leblanc, Marc; Famiglietti, James S.; Edmunds, Mike; hide

    2013-01-01

    As the world's largest distributed store of fresh water, ground water plays a central part in sustaining ecosystems and enabling human adaptation to climate variability and change. The strategic importance of ground water for global water and food security will probably intensify under climate change as more frequent and intense climate extremes (droughts and floods) increase variability in precipitation, soil moisture and surface water. Here we critically review recent research assessing the impacts of climate on ground water through natural and human-induced processes as well as through groundwater-driven feedbacks on the climate system. Furthermore, we examine the possible opportunities and challenges of using and sustaining groundwater resources in climate adaptation strategies, and highlight the lack of groundwater observations, which, at present, limits our understanding of the dynamic relationship between ground water and climate.

  17. Sedimentary records of trace elements from large European lakes (Switzerland) document historic to recent freshwater pollution and climate-induced runoff variations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thevenon, F.; Wirth, S. B.; Fujak, M.; Poté, J.; Thierry, A.; Chiaradia, M.; Girardclos, S.

    2011-12-01

    Continuous sedimentary records of anthropogenic and natural trace elements determined by ICPMS, from 5 large and deep perialpine lakes from Central Europe (Switzerland), evidence the environmental impacts of industrial fossil fuel pollution. In fact, the greatest increase in heavy metal pollution was registered at all the studied sites following the European industrial revolution of ca. AD 1800; with the highest values during the middle part of the 20th century. On a regional scale, anthropogenic heavy metal input subsequently stopped increasing thanks to remediation strategies such as the implementation of wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs). On the other hand, the discharge of industrial treated wastewaters into Vidy Bay of Lake Geneva during the second part of the 20th century involved the sedimentation of highly contaminated sediments in the area surrounding the WWTP outlet pipe discharge; less than 4 km from the main supply of drinking water of Lausanne (127'000 hab.). Microbial analyses furthermore reveal i) high increase in bacterial densities following the lake eutrophication in the 1970s, and that ii) the related sediments can be considered as a reservoir of antibiotic resistant bacteria/genes (of human origin). We finally compare instrumental hydrological data over the last century with variations of lithogenic trace elements (e.g., titanium) as registered in three large lakes (Brienz, Thun and Bienne) connected by the River Aar. This task allows to better constraining the runoff variations on a regional scale over the last decades for the the River Aar, and its possible increase under warming climate conditions in the European Alps.

  18. The Eurasia-North Pacific Oscillation in atmospheric mass variations independent of both IHO and AO and its possible impacts on winter climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Qian; Guan, Zhaoyong; Li, Minggang

    2017-09-01

    Using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, we have investigated the features of migrations of atmospheric mass (AM) between land and ocean in Eurasia-North Pacific domain in boreal winter after having both signals of Inter-hemispheric Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation removed from the physical quantities. It is found that there is a Eurasia-North Pacific Oscillation (ENPO) in surface air pressure anomalies. This ENPO pattern characterizes with two oppositely signed anomalous surface pressure centers over Eurasia and North Pacific respectively, indicating strong connections between Siberian high and Aleutian low during period 1979-2012. The maintenance of this ENPO teleconnection is significantly associated with three factors including the anomalous AM flows and zonal circulation cell over Eurasia-North Pacific domain, the Rossby wave energy propagations, and the thermal forcing contrasts near the surface between Eurasia and North Pacific during boreal winter. The variations of both wintertime rainfall and temperature over Eurasia may be strongly affected by ENPO. When the ENPO index is positive (negative), there occurs the AM accumulation (depletion) over Eurasia with simultaneous depletion (accumulation) over mid-latitude North-Pacific. Correspondingly, this anomalous surface pressure pattern along with the related circulation anomalies at different isobaric levels possibly results in winter precipitation decreases (increases) over Siberian Plain and East China, whereas increases (decreases) over southeastern Europe, Xinjiang of China, and the west coast of Sea of Okhotsk. On the other hand, surface air temperature decreases (increases) over large areas of Eurasia. These results are helpful for our better understanding the mechanisms behind circulation and winter climate variations over Eurasia-North Pacific region.

  19. The Eurasia-North Pacific Oscillation in atmospheric mass variations independent of both IHO and AO and its possible impacts on winter climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Qian; Guan, Zhaoyong; Li, Minggang

    2018-06-01

    Using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, we have investigated the features of migrations of atmospheric mass (AM) between land and ocean in Eurasia-North Pacific domain in boreal winter after having both signals of Inter-hemispheric Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation removed from the physical quantities. It is found that there is a Eurasia-North Pacific Oscillation (ENPO) in surface air pressure anomalies. This ENPO pattern characterizes with two oppositely signed anomalous surface pressure centers over Eurasia and North Pacific respectively, indicating strong connections between Siberian high and Aleutian low during period 1979-2012. The maintenance of this ENPO teleconnection is significantly associated with three factors including the anomalous AM flows and zonal circulation cell over Eurasia-North Pacific domain, the Rossby wave energy propagations, and the thermal forcing contrasts near the surface between Eurasia and North Pacific during boreal winter. The variations of both wintertime rainfall and temperature over Eurasia may be strongly affected by ENPO. When the ENPO index is positive (negative), there occurs the AM accumulation (depletion) over Eurasia with simultaneous depletion (accumulation) over mid-latitude North-Pacific. Correspondingly, this anomalous surface pressure pattern along with the related circulation anomalies at different isobaric levels possibly results in winter precipitation decreases (increases) over Siberian Plain and East China, whereas increases (decreases) over southeastern Europe, Xinjiang of China, and the west coast of Sea of Okhotsk. On the other hand, surface air temperature decreases (increases) over large areas of Eurasia. These results are helpful for our better understanding the mechanisms behind circulation and winter climate variations over Eurasia-North Pacific region.

  20. Erythroid differentiation of human induced pluripotent stem cells is independent of donor cell type of origin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dorn, Isabel; Klich, Katharina; Arauzo-Bravo, Marcos J; Radstaak, Martina; Santourlidis, Simeon; Ghanjati, Foued; Radke, Teja F; Psathaki, Olympia E; Hargus, Gunnar; Kramer, Jan; Einhaus, Martin; Kim, Jeong Beom; Kögler, Gesine; Wernet, Peter; Schöler, Hans R; Schlenke, Peter; Zaehres, Holm

    2015-01-01

    Epigenetic memory in induced pluripotent stem cells, which is related to the somatic cell type of origin of the stem cells, might lead to variations in the differentiation capacities of the pluripotent stem cells. In this context, induced pluripotent stem cells from human CD34(+) hematopoietic stem cells might be more suitable for hematopoietic differentiation than the commonly used fibroblast-derived induced pluripotent stem cells. To investigate the influence of an epigenetic memory on the ex vivo expansion of induced pluripotent stem cells into erythroid cells, we compared induced pluripotent stem cells from human neural stem cells and human cord blood-derived CD34(+) hematopoietic stem cells and evaluated their potential for differentiation into hematopoietic progenitor and mature red blood cells. Although genome-wide DNA methylation profiling at all promoter regions demonstrates that the epigenetic memory of induced pluripotent stem cells is influenced by the somatic cell type of origin of the stem cells, we found a similar hematopoietic induction potential and erythroid differentiation pattern of induced pluripotent stem cells of different somatic cell origin. All human induced pluripotent stem cell lines showed terminal maturation into normoblasts and enucleated reticulocytes, producing predominantly fetal hemoglobin. Differences were only observed in the growth rate of erythroid cells, which was slightly higher in the induced pluripotent stem cells derived from CD34(+) hematopoietic stem cells. More detailed methylation analysis of the hematopoietic and erythroid promoters identified similar CpG methylation levels in the induced pluripotent stem cell lines derived from CD34(+) cells and those derived from neural stem cells, which confirms their comparable erythroid differentiation potential. Copyright© Ferrata Storti Foundation.

  1. A sazonalidade do tromboembolismo venoso no clima subtropical de São Paulo Seasonal variation of venous thromboembolism in the subtropical climate of São Paulo, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniela Kleinfelder

    2009-03-01

    is known about such interference in our latitude. OBJECTIVES: To determine whether there are seasonal variations in venous thromboembolism in a hospital-based population in São Paulo, Brazil, which has subtropical climate. METHODS: Medical records of patients admitted to Hospital da Beneficência Portuguesa de São Paulo with the diagnosis of deep venous thrombosis or pulmonary thromboembolism were reviewed from January 1996 to October 2003. Cases were grouped in trimesters (first trimester = January, February and March; second trimester = April, May and June; third trimester = July, August and September; fourth trimester = October, November and December. They were also grouped as to warm and cold months, according to mean temperature (warm months = October through April; cold months = May through September. RESULTS: A total of 955 cases of venous thromboembolism were found during the study period. The ANOVA test was used for statistical analysis, showing no significant difference in the occurrence of venous thromboembolism considering the four trimesters. Separate analysis of deep venous thrombosis and pulmonary embolism incidence showed no differences either. Comparing warm and cold months, there was an increased incidence of deep venous thrombosis during warm months (p < 0.05, Mann-Whitney test. CONCLUSION: Venous thromboembolism is not clearly related to climatic variations. The influence of climate and temperature on blood coagulability is poorly understood and needs to be further studied.

  2. Human-induced shifts in geomorphic process rates: An example of landslide activity following forest cover change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guns, Marie; Balthazar, Vincent; Vanacker, Veerle

    2013-04-01

    Mountain regions present unique challenges and opportunities to land use change research. Very few, if any, mountain ecosystems remain unaffected by human impact. Based on the exemplary evidence from local case studies, it is not yet possible to have an overall assessment of the extent and impact of human activities on mountain erosion as mountain regions are typically characterized by rapid changes in geomorphic, cryospheric, climatic, hydrologic, ecological and socio-economic conditions over relatively short distances. Here, we present a conceptual model that allows evaluating human-induced shifts in geomorphic process rates. The basic idea behind this model is that the magnitude-frequency distribution of geomorphic processes is dependent on the intensity of human disturbance. The conceptual model is here applied for characterising landslide activity following forest cover change. We selected a tropical Andean catchment with a deforestation rate of 1.4% over the last 45 years. Landslide inventories were established based on historical aerial photographs (1963, 1977, and 1989) and very high-resolution satellite images (2010). Statistical analyses show that the total number of landslides is rising, and that they are increasingly associated with human disturbances (deforestation, road construction). This is particularly the case for shallow landslides that become more frequent after clearcutting. As the human-induced shifts in landslide activity are significant for the low-magnitude events only, the total impact on geomorphic process rates is rather limited in this particular area. This work shows that including information on the magnitude-frequency of geomorphic events before, during and after human disturbances offers new possibilities to quantify the complex response of geomorphic processes to human disturbances.

  3. Climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cronin, Thomas M.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change (including climate variability) refers to regional or global changes in mean climate state or in patterns of climate variability over decades to millions of years often identified using statistical methods and sometimes referred to as changes in long-term weather conditions (IPCC, 2012). Climate is influenced by changes in continent-ocean configurations due to plate tectonic processes, variations in Earth’s orbit, axial tilt and precession, atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, solar variability, volcanism, internal variability resulting from interactions between the atmosphere, oceans and ice (glaciers, small ice caps, ice sheets, and sea ice), and anthropogenic activities such as greenhouse gas emissions and land use and their effects on carbon cycling.

  4. Human induced impacts on soil organic carbon in southwest Iceland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gísladóttir, Guðrún; Erlendsson, Egill; Lal, Rattan

    2013-04-01

    The Icelandic environment has been strongly influenced by natural processes during the Holocene. Since settlement in AD 874, the introduction of grazing animals and other land use has drastically affected the natural environment. This includes the diminishing of vegetative cover, which has led to soil exposure and accelerated erosion over large areas, especially when in conjunction with harsh climate. This has specifically impacted processes and properties of volcanic soils (Andosols), which are subject to accelerated erosion by wind and water. While approximately 46% of the land surface in Iceland has sustained continuous vegetation cover, large areas have lost some or all of their soil cover formed during the postglacial era. Elsewhere, remaining soils have sparse or no vegetation cover, thus impairing soil carbon (C) sequestration. Among their multifunctional roles, soils support plant growth, increase soil biotic activity, enhance nutrient storage and strengthen the cycling of water and nutrients. In contrast, soil degradation by accelerated erosion and other processes impairs soil quality, reduces soil structure and depletes the soil organic matter (SOM) pool. Depletion of the SOM pool has also global implications because the terrestrial C pool is the third largest pool and strongly impacts the global C cycle. Erosional-depositional processes may deplete soil organic C (SOC) by erosion and increase by deposition. Some SOC-enriched sediments are redistributed over the landscape, while others are deposited in depression sites and transported into aquatic ecosystems. SOC decomposition processes are severely constrained in some environmental settings and any SOC buried under anaerobic conditions is protected against decomposition. Yet, the impact of the SOC transported by erosional processes and redistributed over the landscape is not fully understood because the variability in its turnover characteristics has not been widely studied. Thus, the fate of C

  5. Human-induced changes in the distribution of rainfall.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Putnam, Aaron E; Broecker, Wallace S

    2017-05-01

    A likely consequence of global warming will be the redistribution of Earth's rain belts, affecting water availability for many of Earth's inhabitants. We consider three ways in which planetary warming might influence the global distribution of precipitation. The first possibility is that rainfall in the tropics will increase and that the subtropics and mid-latitudes will become more arid. A second possibility is that Earth's thermal equator, around which the planet's rain belts and dry zones are organized, will migrate northward. This northward shift will be a consequence of the Northern Hemisphere, with its large continental area, warming faster than the Southern Hemisphere, with its large oceanic area. A third possibility is that both of these scenarios will play out simultaneously. We review paleoclimate evidence suggesting that (i) the middle latitudes were wetter during the last glacial maximum, (ii) a northward shift of the thermal equator attended the abrupt Bølling-Allerød climatic transition ~14.6 thousand years ago, and (iii) a southward shift occurred during the more recent Little Ice Age. We also inspect trends in seasonal surface heating between the hemispheres over the past several decades. From these clues, we predict that there will be a seasonally dependent response in rainfall patterns to global warming. During boreal summer, in which the rate of recent warming has been relatively uniform between the hemispheres, wet areas will get wetter and dry regions will become drier. During boreal winter, rain belts and drylands will expand northward in response to differential heating between the hemispheres.

  6. Climate Change and Societal Response: Livelihoods, Communities, and the Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molnar, Joseph J.

    2010-01-01

    Climate change may be considered a natural disaster evolving in slow motion on a global scale. Increasing storm intensities, shifting rainfall patterns, melting glaciers, rising sea levels, and other manifold alterations are being experienced around the world. Climate has never been constant in any location, but human-induced changes associated…

  7. Bird banding and climate change: can we make a difference?

    Science.gov (United States)

    C. John Ralph; Jared D. Wolfe

    2014-01-01

    So how does your banding effort fit into the new paradigm of climate science? A little background: many bird populations underwent mass declines during the 19th century from a variety of causes including hunting and habitat change. Current human-induced climate change represents a new and fast-acting pressure that is inherently more difficult to curtail and may drive...

  8. Assessing the observed impact of anthropogenic climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hansen, G.E.

    2015-01-01

    Assessing the observed impact of anthropogenic climate change

    Gerrit Hansen

    Global climate change is unequivocal, and greenhouse gas emissions continue rising despite international mitigation efforts. Hence whether and to what extent the impacts of human induced

  9. Long-term variations and trends in the simulation of the middle atmosphere 1980–2004 by the chemistry-climate model of the Meteorological Research Institute

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Deushi

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available A middle-atmosphere simulation of the past 25 years (from 1980 to 2004 has been performed with a chemistry-climate model (CCM of the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI under observed forcings of sea-surface temperature, greenhouse gases, halogens, volcanic aerosols, and solar irradiance variations. The dynamics module of MRI-CCM is a spectral global model truncated triangularly at a maximum wavenumber of 42 with 68 layers extending from the surface to 0.01 hPa (about 80 km, wherein the vertical spacing is 500 m from 100 to 10 hPa. The chemistry-transport module treats 51 species with 124 reactions including heterogeneous reactions. Transport of chemical species is based on a hybrid semi-Lagrangian scheme, which is a flux form in the vertical direction and an ordinary semi-Lagrangian form in the horizontal direction. The MRI-CCM used in this study reproduced a quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO of about a 20-month period for wind and ozone in the equatorial stratosphere. Multiple linear regression analysis with time lags for volcanic aerosols was performed on the zonal-mean quantities of the simulated result to separate the trend, the QBO, the El Chichón and Mount Pinatubo, the 11-year solar cycle, and the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO signals. It is found that MRI-CCM can more or less realistically reproduce observed trends of annual mean temperature and ozone, and those of total ozone in each month. MRI-CCM also reproduced the vertical multi-cell structures of tropical temperature, zonal-wind, and ozone associated with the QBO, and the mid-latitude total ozone QBO in each winter hemisphere. Solar irradiance variations of the 11-year cycle were found to affect radiation alone (not photodissociation because of an error in making the photolysis lookup table. Nevertheless, though the heights of the maximum temperature (ozone in the tropics are much higher (lower than observations, MRI-CCM could reproduce the second maxima of temperature and

  10. Chapter 3: Climate change at multiple scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Constance Millar; Ron Neilson; Dominique Bachelet; Ray Drapek; Jim Lenihan

    2006-01-01

    Concepts about the natural world influence approaches to forest management. In the popular press, climate change inevitably refers to global warming, greenhouse gas impacts, novel anthropogenic (human-induced) threats, and international politics. There is, however, a larger context that informs our understanding of changes that are occurring - that is, Earth’...

  11. Focus Climate Talk on Managing Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lefsrud, Lianne M.; Meyer, Renate

    2013-01-01

    In this opinion piece, the authors begin by asking whether is is possible that modern society's bitter political divisions over belief in human-induced climate change are distracting decision-makers from the far more practical matter of confronting the risk that it presents, directly or indirectly...

  12. Variation in thermal sensitivity and thermal tolerances in an invasive species across a climatic gradient: lessons from the land snail Cornu aspersum.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan Diego Gaitán-Espitia

    Full Text Available The ability of organisms to perform at different temperatures could be described by a continuous nonlinear reaction norm (i.e., thermal performance curve, TPC, in which the phenotypic trait value varies as a function of temperature. Almost any shift in the parameters of this performance curve could highlight the direct effect of temperature on organism fitness, providing a powerful framework for testing thermal adaptation hypotheses. Inter-and intraspecific differences in this performance curve are also reflected in thermal tolerances limits (e.g., critical and lethal limits, influencing the biogeographic patterns of species' distribution. Within this context, here we investigated the intraspecific variation in thermal sensitivities and thermal tolerances in three populations of the invasive snail Cornu aspersum across a geographical gradient, characterized by different climatic conditions. Thus, we examined population differentiation in the TPCs, thermal-coma recovery times, expression of heat-shock proteins and standard metabolic rate (i.e., energetic costs of physiological differentiation. We tested two competing hypotheses regarding thermal adaptation (the "hotter is better" and the generalist-specialist trade-offs. Our results show that the differences in thermal sensitivity among populations of C. aspersum follow a latitudinal pattern, which is likely the result of a combination of thermodynamic constraints ("hotter is better" and thermal adaptations to their local environments (generalist-specialist trade-offs. This finding is also consistent with some thermal tolerance indices such as the Heat-Shock Protein Response and the recovery time from chill-coma. However, mixed responses in the evaluated traits suggest that thermal adaptation in this species is not complete, as we were not able to detect any differences in neither energetic costs of physiological differentiation among populations, nor in the heat-coma recovery.

  13. Long-term variations in sediment heavy metals of a reservoir with changing trophic states: Implications for the impact of climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Qiong; Qi, Jun; Xia, Xinghui

    2017-12-31

    Two dated sediment cores from the Miyun Reservoir of Beijing in China were analyzed to reconstruct the pollution history of heavy metals including cadmium (Cd), chromium (Cr), iron (Fe), nickel (Ni), and zinc (Zn) as well as phosphorus (P). Enrichment factor (EF) and geoaccumulation index (I geo ) were applied to assess the enrichment status of heavy metals. Average EF and I geo values indicated that the studied heavy metals in the sediments mainly originated from non-point source pollution and soil-water erosion, showing low ecological risks. In addition, correlation analysis and principal component analysis (PCA) identified that Cd, Zn, and P were mainly from agricultural diffusion pollution caused by utilization of the phosphate fertilizer; Zn, Ni, and Cr originated from soil erosion. PCA analysis was further conducted to investigate the relationships among meteorological factors, algae-dominant total organic carbon (TOC), and heavy metals. Results showed that algae-dominant TOC had strong positive correlation with temperature, which can be explained by that increased temperature accelerated the growth of algae. Meanwhile the opposite loadings between algae-dominant TOC and heavy metal suggested that primary production played an important role in migration and transformation of metals. Moreover, stepwise multiple regression models showed that Fe was sensitive to temperature, which accounted for approximately 39.0% and 40.1% of the variations in Fe of two sediment cores, respectively. Fe showed significant decreasing trends during the past 50years. Reductive environment of water-sediment interface caused by increasing temperature probably contributed to the restoration of ferric iron, resulting in the release of soluble Fe to overlying waters. Future climate change with elevated temperature and extreme weather events will aggravate the ecological risk of heavy metals in water environment due to the enhanced leaching effect and non-point source pollution as well

  14. Fire-induced Carbon Emissions and Regrowth Uptake in Western U.S. Forests: Documenting Variation Across Forest Types, Fire Severity, and Climate Regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghimire, Bardan; Williams, Christopher A.; Collatz, George James; Vanderhoof, Melanie

    2012-01-01

    The forest area in the western United States that burns annually is increasing with warmer temperatures, more frequent droughts, and higher fuel densities. Studies that examine fire effects for regional carbon balances have tended to either focus on individual fires as examples or adopt generalizations without considering how forest type, fire severity, and regional climate influence carbon legacies. This study provides a more detailed characterization of fire effects and quantifies the full carbon impacts in relation to direct emissions, slow release of fire-killed biomass, and net carbon uptake from forest regrowth. We find important variations in fire-induced mortality and combustion across carbon pools (leaf, live wood, dead wood, litter, and duff) and across low- to high-severity classes. This corresponds to fire-induced direct emissions from 1984 to 2008 averaging 4 TgC/yr and biomass killed averaging 10.5 TgC/yr, with average burn area of 2723 sq km/yr across the western United States. These direct emission and biomass killed rates were 1.4 and 3.7 times higher, respectively, for high-severity fires than those for low-severity fires. The results show that forest regrowth varies greatly by forest type and with severity and that these factors impose a sustained carbon uptake legacy. The western U.S. fires between 1984 and 2008 imposed a net source of 12.3 TgC/yr in 2008, accounting for both direct fire emissions (9.5 TgC/yr) and heterotrophic decomposition of fire-killed biomass (6.1 TgC yr1) as well as contemporary regrowth sinks (3.3 TgC/yr). A sizeable trend exists toward increasing emissions as a larger area burns annually.

  15. Human-induced environmental degradation during Anthropocene in Turkey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Efe, Recep; Curebal, Isa; Soykan, Abdullah; Sönmez, Suleyman

    2015-04-01

    ., 2011; Dalton et al., 2014). Domestic tourism boomed after 1970, which led the Sea of Marmara, Aegean, and Mediterranean coasts to become secondary settlement areas for city-dwellers. This, in turn, sparked the construction of concrete buildings along the coastlines, making them less natural. The shift from the agricultural society to the industrial society made it possible for the service sector to grow and develop. Land transportation among large cities gained importance, and road construction gained pace. Development of industry, rapid rise in population, migration from rural areas to cities, unplanned settlement, and wrong agricultural practices are main factors for the environmental degradation in Turkey. Key Words: Human, habitat, anthropocene, industrialization, Turkey. References Andersson, A.J.; Mackenzie, F.T.; Lerman, A. (2006), Coastal ocean CO 2 carbonic acid carbonate sediment system of the Anthropocene, Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 20: 1-13 Braje, T.J.; Erlandson, J.M. (2014), Looking forward, looking back: Humans, anthropogenic change and the Anthropocene, Anthropocene, 4: 116-121 Crossland, C.J. ed (2005), Coastal fluxes in the Anthropocene. Berlin: Springer. 231-pp. Crutzen, P. J. and Stoermer, E.F. (2000), The Anthropocene. Global Change Newsletter (41): 17-18. Crutzen, P.J. (2002), Geology of Mankind: The Anthropocene. Nature, 415: 23 Crutzen P.J.; Steffen, W. (2003), How long have we been in the Anthropocene Era? Climatic Change, Vol. 61, No. 3. Cürebal, I.; Efe, R.; Soykan, A.; Sonmez, S. (2015), Impacts of anthropogenic factors on land degradation during the anthropocene in Turkey, Journal of Environmental Biology, Volume 36, Special Issue, 51-58 Dalton, C.; ODwyer, B.; Taylor, D.; de Eyto, E.; Jennings, E.; Chen, G.; Poole, R.; Dillane, M.; McGinnity, P. (2014), Anthropocene environmental change in an internationally important oligotrophic catchment on the Atlantic seaboard of western Europe, Anthropocene, 5: 9-21 Foley, S.F.; Gronenborn, D

  16. CCL2 enhances pluripotency of human induced pluripotent stem cells by activating hypoxia related genes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hasegawa, Yuki; Tang, Dave; Takahashi, Naoko; Hayashizaki, Yoshihide; Forrest, Alistair R R; Suzuki, Harukazu; Clevers, Hans

    2014-01-01

    Standard culture of human induced pluripotent stem cells (hiPSCs) requires basic Fibroblast Growth Factor (bFGF) to maintain the pluripotent state, whereas hiPSC more closely resemble epiblast stem cells than true naïve state ES which requires LIF to maintain pluripotency. Here we show that

  17. Choices for Induction of Pluripotency: Recent Developments in Human Induced Pluripotent Stem Cell Reprogramming Strategies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brouwer, M.; Zhou, Huiqing; Nadif Kasri, N.

    2016-01-01

    The ability to generate human induced pluripotent stem cells (iPSCs) from somatic cells provides tremendous promises for regenerative medicine and its use has widely increased over recent years. However, reprogramming efficiencies remain low and chromosomal instability and tumorigenic potential are

  18. Linking primary production, climate and land use along an urban-wildland transect: a satellite view

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hu Yonghong; Jia Gensuo; Guo Huadong

    2009-01-01

    Variation of green vegetation cover influences local climate dynamics, exchange of water-heat between land and atmosphere, and hydrological processes. However, the mechanism of interaction between vegetation and local climate change in subtropical areas under climate warming and anthropogenic disturbances is poorly understood. We analyzed spatial-temporal trends of vegetation with moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) vegetation index datasets over three sections, namely urban, urban-rural fringe and wildland along an urban-wildland transect in a southern mega-city area in China from 2000-2008. The results show increased photosynthetic activity occurred in the wildland and the stable urban landscape in correspondence to the rising temperature, and a considerable decrease of vegetation activity in the urban-rural fringe area, apparently due to urban expansion. On analyzing the controlling factors of climate change and human drivers of vegetation cover change, we found that temperature contributed to vegetation growth more than precipitation and that rising temperature accelerated plant physiological activity. Meanwhile, human-induced dramatic modification of land cover, e.g. conversion of natural forest and cropland to built-up areas in the urban-rural fringe, has caused significant changes of green vegetation fraction and overall primary production, which may further influence local climate.

  19. Has prey availability for Arctic birds advanced with climate change? Hindcasting the abundance of tundra arthropods using weather and seasonal variations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tulp, I.; Schekkerman, H.

    2008-01-01

    Of all climatic zones on earth, Arctic areas have experienced the greatest climate change in recent decades. Predicted changes, including a continuing rise in temperature and precipitation and a reduction in snow cover, are expected to have a large impact on Arctic life. Large numbers of birds breed

  20. Has prey availability for Arctic birds advanced with climate change? Hindcasting the abundance of tundra Arthropods using weather and seasonal variation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tulp, I.Y.M.; Schekkerman, H.

    2008-01-01

    Of all climatic zones on earth, Arctic areas have experienced the greatest climate change in recent decades. Predicted changes, including a continuing rise in temperature and precipitation and a reduction in snow cover, are expected to have a large impact on Arctic life. Large numbers of birds breed

  1. Explaining variation in life history timing across a species range: Effects of climate on spawning time in an exploited marine fish

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Neuheimer, Anna; MacKenzie, Brian

    . Combined, these results shed light on the adaptive capacity of the species in the face of changing climate. We use our results to estimate expected spawning time under future climate regimes, and discuss the implications for codecology and management across the species’ range, and in the greater ecosystem......The capacity of a species to tolerate and/or adapt to environmental conditions will shape its response to future climate change including climate extremes. Of the many life-history processes affected by climate change, timing of reproduction greatly influences offspring success and resulting...... population production. Here we explore temporal and spatial changes in spawning time for Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) across the species’ range (4 to 80°N). We estimate spawning time using a physiologically relevant metric that includes information on fish thermal history (degree days, DD). First, we estimate...

  2. Sensitivity of Mediterranean bivalve mollusc aquaculture to climate change, ocean acidification, and other environmental pressures: findings from a producers’ survey

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rodrigues, L.; van den Bergh, J.C.J.M.; Mass, F.; Theodorou, J.A.; Ziveri, P.; Gazeau, F.

    2015-01-01

    Human-induced climate change and ocean acidification are global environmental phenomena with a common driver: anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide. Both processes potentially threaten the Mediterranean bivalve mollusc aquaculture sector, which is economically relevant to several regions and

  3. Regional variation of flow duration curves in the eastern United States: Process-based analyses of the interaction between climate and landscape properties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chouaib, Wafa; Caldwell, Peter V.; Alila, Younes

    2018-04-01

    This paper advances the physical understanding of the flow duration curve (FDC) regional variation. It provides a process-based analysis of the interaction between climate and landscape properties to explain disparities in FDC shapes. We used (i) long term measured flow and precipitation data over 73 catchments from the eastern US. (ii) We calibrated the Sacramento model (SAC-SMA) to simulate soil moisture and flow components FDCs. The catchments classification based on storm characteristics pointed to the effect of catchments landscape properties on the precipitation variability and consequently on the FDC shapes. The landscape properties effect was pronounce such that low value of the slope of FDC (SFDC)-hinting at limited flow variability-were present in regions of high precipitation variability. Whereas, in regions with low precipitation variability the SFDCs were of larger values. The topographic index distribution, at the catchment scale, indicated that saturation excess overland flow mitigated the flow variability under conditions of low elevations with large soil moisture storage capacity and high infiltration rates. The SFDCs increased due to the predominant subsurface stormflow in catchments at high elevations with limited soil moisture storage capacity and low infiltration rates. Our analyses also highlighted the major role of soil infiltration rates on the FDC despite the impact of the predominant runoff generation mechanism and catchment elevation. In conditions of slow infiltration rates in soils of large moisture storage capacity (at low elevations) and predominant saturation excess, the SFDCs were of larger values. On the other hand, the SFDCs decreased in catchments of prevalent subsurface stormflow and poorly drained soils of small soil moisture storage capacity. The analysis of the flow components FDCs demonstrated that the interflow contribution to the response was the higher in catchments with large value of slope of the FDC. The surface flow

  4. Selected international efforts to address climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seki, M.; Christ, R. [Atmosphere Unit, United Nations Environment Programme UNEP, Nairobi (Kenya)

    1995-12-31

    Over the past two decades, concern about human-induced climate change has become an increasingly important item on the environmental and political agenda. The signing of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the adoption of Agenda 21 at the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development in Rio de Janeiro in 1992 provided international organizations and the nations of the world with a new focus for climate-related activities. Although there remains considerable scientific uncertainty about the extent, magnitude, and rate of climate change and the impacts of such change, actions to address climate change have been initiated both internationally and nationally. Major international activities include the World Climate Programme, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. and the United Nations Environment Program me. 16 refs.

  5. Uninterrupted monitoring of drug effects in human-induced pluripotent stem cell-derived cardiomyocytes with bioluminescence Ca2+ microscopy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suzuki, Kazushi; Onishi, Takahito; Nakada, Chieko; Takei, Shunsuke; Daniels, Matthew J; Nakano, Masahiro; Matsuda, Tomoki; Nagai, Takeharu

    2018-05-18

    Cardiomyocytes derived from human-induced pluripotent stem cells are a powerful platform for high-throughput drug screening in vitro. However, current modalities for drug testing, such as electrophysiology and fluorescence imaging have inherent drawbacks. To circumvent these problems, we report the development of a bioluminescent Ca 2+ indicator GmNL(Ca 2+ ), and its application in a customized microscope for high-throughput drug screening. GmNL(Ca 2+ ) gives a 140% signal change with Ca 2+ , and can image drug-induced changes of Ca 2+ dynamics in cultured cells. Since bioluminescence requires application of a chemical substrate, which is consumed over ~ 30 min we made a dedicated microscope with automated drug dispensing inside a light-tight box, to control drug addition. To overcome thermal instability of the luminescent substrate, or small molecule, dual climate control enables distinct temperature settings in the drug reservoir and the biological sample. By combining GmNL(Ca 2+ ) with this adaptation, we could image spontaneous Ca 2+ transients in cultured cardiomyocytes and phenotype their response to well-known drugs without accessing the sample directly. In addition, the bioluminescent strategy demonstrates minimal perturbation of contractile parameters and long-term observation attributable to lack of phototoxicity and photobleaching. Overall, bioluminescence may enable more accurate drug screening in a high-throughput manner.

  6. Spatial variation in messaging effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warshaw, Christopher

    2018-05-01

    There is large geographic variation in the public's views about climate change in the United States. Research now shows that climate messages can influence public beliefs about the scientific consensus on climate change, particularly in the places that are initially more skeptical.

  7. A climate response function explaining most of the variation in the forest floor needle mass and the needle decomposition in pine forests across Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kurz-Besson, C.; Coûteaux, M.M.; Berg, Bjørn

    2006-01-01

    The forest floor needle mass and the decomposition rates of pine needle litter in a European climate transect were studied in order to estimate the impact of climate change on forest soil carbon sequestration. Eight pine forests preserved from fire were selected along a climatic latitudinal...... gradient from 40° to 60° N, from Spain and Portugal to Sweden. The forest floor (Oi and Oe layers) was sorted into five categories of increasing decomposition level according to morphological criteria. The needle mass loss in each category was determined using a linear mass density method. The needle...... and a recalcitrant one. NF was correlated with actual evapotranspiration (AET) whereas the decomposition parameters (decomposition rate of the decomposable fraction, first year mass loss, forest floor needle mass, age of the most-decomposed category) were related to a combined response function to climate (CRF...

  8. Variation in White Stork ( Ciconia ciconia) diet along a climatic gradient and across rural-to-urban landscapes in North Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chenchouni, Haroun

    2017-03-01

    Assessing diet composition of White Storks ( Ciconia ciconia) breeding under North African conditions provides key information to understanding its trophic niche for conservation purpose. Since, climate controls productivities of foraging habitats and thus food availability for predators, this study examines how Storks' diet parameters varied following a climate gradient along with rural-to-urban landscapes in north-eastern Algeria. Feeding strategies to cope with severe conditions were discussed in light of climate aridity and urbanization and how these influence reproduction, population dynamics and distribution. While invertebrate prey accounted for 94 % of ingested individuals, the biomass intake was dominated by chicken remains scavenged from rubbish dumps (67 %) and small mammals (14 %). Generalized linear models revealed that prey numbers varied significantly between climatic regions and landscapes types, but no significant differences were observed for other dietary parameters, including prey biomass. The study showed high dietary similarity between study climates and landscapes, mainly among rural and urban colonies located in semi-arid and sub-humid areas, which differed from those in suburban and arid climate. Rarefaction and extrapolation curves indicated that prey species richness in White Stork diets was expected to be higher in urban colonies located in sub-humid climate. Despite low prey species diversity in arid regions, the White Stork demonstrates a broad trophic niche, which could be due to supplementary feeding from human refuse. This study suggests that regardless of the climate or landscape, White Storks ensure a constant food intake, despite prey biomass fluctuations, by adapting their diet. Foraging in diverse habitats, including trash dumps, ensures a sufficiently balanced diet to meet nutritional requirements.

  9. Evolution and behavioural responses to human-induced rapid environmental change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sih, Andrew; Ferrari, Maud C O; Harris, David J

    2011-03-01

    Almost all organisms live in environments that have been altered, to some degree, by human activities. Because behaviour mediates interactions between an individual and its environment, the ability of organisms to behave appropriately under these new conditions is crucial for determining their immediate success or failure in these modified environments. While hundreds of species are suffering dramatically from these environmental changes, others, such as urbanized and pest species, are doing better than ever. Our goal is to provide insights into explaining such variation. We first summarize the responses of some species to novel situations, including novel risks and resources, habitat loss/fragmentation, pollutants and climate change. Using a sensory ecology approach, we present a mechanistic framework for predicting variation in behavioural responses to environmental change, drawing from models of decision-making processes and an understanding of the selective background against which they evolved. Where immediate behavioural responses are inadequate, learning or evolutionary adaptation may prove useful, although these mechanisms are also constrained by evolutionary history. Although predicting the responses of species to environmental change is difficult, we highlight the need for a better understanding of the role of evolutionary history in shaping individuals' responses to their environment and provide suggestion for future work.

  10. Human induced prehistoric and historical soil erosion and landscape development in Southwestern USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dotterweich, Markus; Ivester, Andrew H.; Hanson, Paul R.; Daniel, Larsen; Dye, David H.; Foster, Thomas H., II

    2015-04-01

    gathered data will be used to i) compare the spatial extent of prehistoric and historic erosion and the short-term and long-term pedological and geomorphological effects of subtle soil erosion against extreme events, ii) assess the feedback-mechanisms of soil erosion on soil fertility and measurable land use changes in prehistorical and historical times, and (iii) estimate the long term effects of soil erosion and sediment deposition on archaeological features. The outcome will provide a decisive step forward to gather new qualitative and quantitative information on soil erosion during the Native American land use period to be able to achieve a better understanding of the long-term human induced landscape evolution in the uplands of the Southeastern USA and deliver data for a better predicting of landscape evolution to future climatic shifts in precipitation regimes.

  11. Human-Induced Effects on RSS Ranging Measurements for Cooperative Positioning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Della Rosa, Francescantonio; Pelosi, Mauro; Nurmi, Jari

    2012-01-01

    of human-induced perturbations for enhancing the final positioning accuracy through cooperative schemes has been assessed. It has been proved that the effect of cooperation is very limited if human factors are not taken into account when performing experimental activities.......We present experimental evaluations of human-induced perturbations on received-signal-strength-(RSS-) based ranging measurements for cooperative mobile positioning. To the best of our knowledge, this work is the first attempt to gain insight and understand the impact of both body loss and hand grip...... on the RSS for enhancing proximity measurements among neighbouring devices in cooperative scenarios. Our main contribution is represented by experimental investigations. Analysis of the errors introduced in the distance estimation using path-loss-based methods has been carried out. Moreover, the exploitation...

  12. Basic Safety Considerations for Nuclear Power Plant Dealing with External Human Induced Events

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Salem, W., E-mail: wafaasalem21@yahoo.com [Nuclear and Radiological Regulatory Authority (Egypt)

    2014-10-15

    Facilities and human activities in the region in which a nuclear power plant is located may under some conditions affect its safety. The potential sources of human induced events external to the plant should be identified and the severity of the possible resulting hazard phenomena should be evaluated to derive the appropriate design bases for the plant. They should also be monitored and periodically assessed over the lifetime of the plant to ensure that consistency with the design assumptions is maintained. External human induced events that could affect safety should be investigated in the site evaluation stage for every nuclear power plant site. The region is required to be examined for facilities and human activities that have the potential, under certain conditions, to endanger the nuclear power plant over its entire lifetime. Each relevant potential source is required to be identified and assessed to determine the potential interactions with personnel and plant items important to safety. (author)

  13. A robust approach to identifying tissue-specific gene expression regulatory variants using personalized human induced pluripotent stem cells.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Je-Hyuk Lee

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Normal variation in gene expression due to regulatory polymorphisms is often masked by biological and experimental noise. In addition, some regulatory polymorphisms may become apparent only in specific tissues. We derived human induced pluripotent stem (iPS cells from adult skin primary fibroblasts and attempted to detect tissue-specific cis-regulatory variants using in vitro cell differentiation. We used padlock probes and high-throughput sequencing for digital RNA allelotyping and measured allele-specific gene expression in primary fibroblasts, lymphoblastoid cells, iPS cells, and their differentiated derivatives. We show that allele-specific expression is both cell type and genotype-dependent, but the majority of detectable allele-specific expression loci remains consistent despite large changes in the cell type or the experimental condition following iPS reprogramming, except on the X-chromosome. We show that our approach to mapping cis-regulatory variants reduces in vitro experimental noise and reveals additional tissue-specific variants using skin-derived human iPS cells.

  14. Natural and human-induced variability in the composition of fish assemblages in the Northwestern Cuban shelf.

    Science.gov (United States)

    González-Sansón, Gaspar; Aguilar, Consuelo; Hernández, Ivet; Cabrera, Yureidy; Suarez-Montes, Noelis; Bretos, Fernando; Guggenheim, David

    2009-09-01

    The main goal of the study was to obtain field data to build a baseline of fish assemblage composition that can be used comparatively for future analyses of the impact of human actions in the region. A basic network of 68 sampling stations was defined for the entire region (4,050 km2). Fish assemblage species and size composition was estimated using visual census methods at three different spatial scales: a) entire region, b) inside the main reef area and c) along a human impact coastal gradient. Multivariate numerical analyses revealed habitat type as the main factor inducing spatial variability of fish community composition, while the level of human impact appears to play the main role in fish assemblage composition changes along the coast. A trend of decreasing fish size toward the east supports the theory of more severe human impact due to overfishing and higher urban pollution in that direction. This is the first detailed study along the northwest coast of Cuba that focuses on fish community structure and the natural and human-induced variations at different spatial scales for the entire NW shelf. This research also provides input for a more comprehensive understanding of coastal marine fish communities' status in the Gulf of Mexico basin.

  15. Human Induced Pluripotent Stem Cells as a Platform for Personalized and Precision Cardiovascular Medicine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matsa, Elena; Ahrens, John H; Wu, Joseph C

    2016-07-01

    Human induced pluripotent stem cells (hiPSCs) have revolutionized the field of human disease modeling, with an enormous potential to serve as paradigm shifting platforms for preclinical trials, personalized clinical diagnosis, and drug treatment. In this review, we describe how hiPSCs could transition cardiac healthcare away from simple disease diagnosis to prediction and prevention, bridging the gap between basic and clinical research to bring the best science to every patient. Copyright © 2016 the American Physiological Society.

  16. Characterizing the growth responses of three co-occurring northern conifer tree species to climate variation across a range of conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Green, S.; Miyamoto, Y. [Northern British Columbia Univ., Prince George, BC (Canada). Ecosystem Science and Management Program

    2006-07-01

    Climate is the key factor affecting tree growth. Trees regularly adapt to changing environmental conditions. Adjusting forest policies and practices under changing environments necessitates an understanding of species-specific tree responses to climate change. This paper discussed a study that examined the responses of 3 northern conifer tree species, notably the lodgepole pine, subalpine fir, and interior spruce. The purpose of the study was to characterize the climate sensitivities of each species growing under various environmental conditions, represented by mean annual temperatures and mean annual precipitations. The paper provided background information on climate change and tree species and discussed the objectives and implications of the study. Study methods were presented in detail and a geographical map showing the eight sampling sites located in central British Columbia and Yukon was also provided. Last, the paper provided the preliminary results and conclusions. It was found that the impacts of changing seasonal climates on tree growth will be species and site-specific. However, the magnitude of these differences were not completely analysed so that the impacts may be similar or significantly different among species or sites. 15 refs., 4 figs.

  17. Late-Quaternary variation in C3 and C4 grass abundance in southeastern Australia as inferred from δ13C analysis: Assessing the roles of climate, pCO2, and fire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, David M.; Urban, Michael A.; Kershaw, A. Peter; Hu, Feng Sheng

    2016-05-01

    Climate, atmospheric pCO2, and fire all may exert major influences on the relative abundance of C3 and C4 grasses in the present-day vegetation. However, the relative role of these factors in driving variation in C3 and C4 grass abundances in the paleorecord is uncertain, and C4 abundance is often interpreted narrowly as a proxy indicator of aridity or pCO2. We measured δ13C values of individual grains of grass (Poaceae) pollen in the sediments of two sites in southeastern Australia to assess changes in the proportions of C3 and C4 grasses during the past 25,000 years. These data were compared with shifts in pCO2, temperature, moisture balance, and fire to assess how these factors were related to long-term variation of C4 grass abundance during the late Quaternary. At Caledonia Fen, a high-elevation site in the Snowy Mountains, C4 grass abundance decreased from an average of 66% during the glacial period to 11% during the Holocene, primarily in response to increased pCO2 and temperature. In contrast, this pattern did not exist in low-elevation savannah woodlands around Tower Hill Northwest Crater, where C4 grass abundance instead varied in response to shifts in regional aridity. Fire did not appear to have strongly influenced the proportions of C3 and C4 grasses on the landscape at millennial timescales at either site. These patterns are similar to those of a recent study in East Africa, suggesting that elevation-related climatic differences influence how the abundance of C3 and C4 grasses responds to shifts in climate and pCO2. These results caution against using C4 plant abundance as a proxy indicator of either climate or pCO2 without an adequate understanding of key controlling factors.

  18. Generation of Oligodendrogenic Spinal Neural Progenitor Cells From Human Induced Pluripotent Stem Cells.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khazaei, Mohamad; Ahuja, Christopher S; Fehlings, Michael G

    2017-08-14

    This unit describes protocols for the efficient generation of oligodendrogenic neural progenitor cells (o-NPCs) from human induced pluripotent stem cells (hiPSCs). Specifically, detailed methods are provided for the maintenance and differentiation of hiPSCs, human induced pluripotent stem cell-derived neural progenitor cells (hiPS-NPCs), and human induced pluripotent stem cell-oligodendrogenic neural progenitor cells (hiPSC-o-NPCs) with the final products being suitable for in vitro experimentation or in vivo transplantation. Throughout, cell exposure to growth factors and patterning morphogens has been optimized for both concentration and timing, based on the literature and empirical experience, resulting in a robust and highly efficient protocol. Using this derivation procedure, it is possible to obtain millions of oligodendrogenic-NPCs within 40 days of initial cell plating which is substantially shorter than other protocols for similar cell types. This protocol has also been optimized to use translationally relevant human iPSCs as the parent cell line. The resultant cells have been extensively characterized both in vitro and in vivo and express key markers of an oligodendrogenic lineage. © 2017 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley and Sons, Inc.

  19. Indirect effects of human-induced environmental change on offspring production mediated by behavioural responses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Candolin, Ulrika; Nieminen, Anne; Nyman, Johanna

    2014-01-01

    Human-induced rapid environmental changes often cause behavioural alterations in animals. The consequences that these alterations in turn have for the viability of populations are, however, poorly known. We used a population of threespine sticklebacks Gasterosteus aculeatus in the Baltic Sea to investigate the consequences of behavioural responses to human-induced eutrophication for offspring production. The investigated population has been growing during the last decades, and one cause could be increased offspring production. We combined field-based surveys with laboratory-based experiments, and found that an enhanced growth of macroalgae relaxed agonistic interactions among males. This allowed more males to nest, improved hatching success, and increased the number of reproductive cycles that males completed. Thus, the behavioural responses were adaptive at the individual level and increased offspring production. However, a larger proportion of small males of low competitive ability reproduced in dense vegetation. As male size and dominance are heritable, this could influence the genetic composition of the offspring. Together with a higher number of offspring produced, this could influence natural selection and the rate of adaptation to the changing environment. Thus, behavioural responses to a rapid human-induced environmental change can influence offspring production, with potential consequences for population dynamics and evolutionary processes.

  20. Dissemination of Climate Model Output to the Public and Commercial Sector

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Robert Stockwell, PhD

    2010-09-23

    concentrations of aerosol, and land alteration. A particular concern is that atmospheric levels of CO{sub 2} may be rising faster than at any time in Earth's history, except possibly following rare events like impacts from large extraterrestrial objects (AMS, 2007). Atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations have increased since the mid-1700s through fossil fuel burning and changes in land use, with more than 80% of this increase occurring since 1900. The increased levels of CO{sub 2} will remain in the atmosphere for hundreds to thousands of years. The complexity of the climate system makes it difficult to predict specific aspects of human-induced climate change, such as exactly how and where changes will occur, and their magnitude. The Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) was established by World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations in 1988. The IPCC was tasked with assessing the scientific, technical and socioeconomic information needed to understand the risk of human-induced climate change, its observed and projected impacts, and options for adaptation and mitigation. The IPCC concluded in its Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) that warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and that most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increased in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations (IPCC, 2007).

  1. Unraveling climatic changes from intra-profile variation in oxygen and hydrogen isotopic composition of goethite and kaolinite in laterites: An integrated study from Yaou, French Guiana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Girard, Jean-Pierre; Freyssinet, Philippe; Chazot, Gilles

    2000-02-01

    An integrated study of O and H isotopes in the lateritic profile of Yaou, French Guiana, was undertaken to investigate the usefulness of stable isotopes as tracers of climatic changes in continental environments. The studied profile is composed of a 27 m thick saprolite, mostly developed in the past under wet-and-dry tropical climate in association with a duricrust, overlain by a 3 m thick yellow latosol formed more recently under present equatorial hot and humid climate. δ 18O-δD values determined for weathering goethite (pseudomorphs after pyrite) and kaolinite (microcrystalline clay groundmass) throughout the 30 m deep profile reflect formation temperatures consistent with present (25°C) and realistic past climatic temperatures (20°C-30°C), indicating that weathering minerals formed in isotopic equilibrium with their genetic environment and were not subjected to significant isotope exchange after formation. A distinct shift downward (2‰ for δ 18O, 15‰ for δD) from low to high δ 18O-δD values occurs around 20 m depth in the saprolite. It is interpreted as recording the change from the past tropical to the present equatorial climate. Goethite and kaolinite in the 5-10 m thick saprolite interval immediately above the active basement weathering front are in isotopic equilibrium with modern water and must have formed under present equatorial-humid conditions. In contrast, goethite and kaolinite found higher up in the saprolite and in the duricrust formed in the past under tropical wet and dry climate from waters distinctly depleted in 18O and D relative to modern water. The marked depletion of paleo-meteoric water at Yaou most likely reflects a more contrasted or "monsoonal" character of the ancient tropical climate. The present study shows that ancient weathering minerals in lateritic profiles preserve their δ 18O-δD values and carry a time signal. The time signal is best expressed in minerals formed rapidly at the weathering front and not subjected

  2. Unraveling climatic changes from intraprofile variation in oxygen and hydrogen isotopic composition of goethite and kaolinite in laterites: An integrated study from Yaou, French Guiana

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Girard, J.P.; Freyssinet, P.; Chazot, G.

    2000-02-01

    An integrated study of O and H isotopes in the latertic profile of Yaou, French Guiana, was undertaken to investigate the usefulness of stable isotopes as tracers of climatic changes in continental environments. The studied profile is composed of a 27 m thick saprolite, mostly developed in the past under wet-and-dry tropical climate in association with a duricrust, overlain by a 3 m thick yellow latosol formed more recently under present equatorial hot and humid climate. {delta}{sup 18}O-{delta}D values determined for weathering goethite (pseudomorphs after pyrite) and kaolinite (microcrystalline clay groundmass) throughout the 30 m deep profile reflect formation temperatures consistent with present (25 C) and realistic past climatic temperatures (20 C--30 C), indicating that weathering minerals formed in isotopic equilibrium with their genetic environment and were not subjected to significant isotope exchange after formation. A distinct shift downward from low to high {delta}{sup 18}O-{delta}D values occurs around 20 m depth in the saprolite. It is interpreted as recording the change from the past tropical to the present equatorial climate. Goethite and kaolinite in the 5--10 m thick saprolite interval immediately above the active basement weathering front are in isotopic equilibrium with modern water and must have formed under present equatorial-humid conditions. In contrast, goethite and kaolinite found higher up on the saprolite and in the duricrust formed in the past under tropical wet and dry climate from waters distinctly depleted in {sup 18}O and D relative to modern water. The marked depletion of paleo-meteoric water at Yaou most likely reflects a more contrasted or monsoonal character of the ancient tropical climate. The present study shows that ancient weathering minerals in lateritic profiles preserve their {delta}{sup 18}O-{delta}D values and carry a time signal. The time signal is best expressed in minerals formed rapidly at the weathering front and

  3. Hotspots of human-induced biomass productivity decline and their social-ecological types toward supporting national policy and local studies on combating land degradation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vu, Quyet Manh; Le, Quang Bao; Vlek, Paul L. G.

    2014-10-01

    Identification and social-ecological characterization of areas that experience high levels of persistent productivity decline are essential for planning appropriate management measures. Although land degradation is mainly induced by human actions, the phenomenon is concurrently influenced by global climate changes that need to be taken into account in land degradation assessments. This study aims to delineate the geographic hotspots of human-induced land degradation in the country and classify the social-ecological characterizations of each specific degradation hotspot type. The research entailed a long-term time-series (1982-2006) of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index to specify the extents of areas with significant biomass decline or increase in Vietnam. Annual rainfall and temperature time-series were then used to separate areas of human-induced biomass productivity decline from those driven by climate dynamics. Next, spatial cluster analyses identified social-ecological types of degradation for guiding further investigations at regional and local scales. The results show that about 19% of the national land mass experienced persistent declines in biomass productivity over the last 25 years. Most of the degraded areas are found in the Southeast and Mekong River Delta (17,984 km2), Northwest Mountains (14,336 km2), and Central Highlands (13,504 km2). We identified six and five social-ecological types of degradation hotspots in agricultural and forested zones, respectively. Constraints in soil nutrient availability and nutrient retention capability are widely spreading in all degradation hotspot types. These hotspot types are different from each other in social and ecological conditions, suggesting that region-specific strategies are needed for the formulation of land degradation combating policy.

  4. Variation in ploidy level and phenology can result in large and unexpected differences in demography and climatic sensitivity between closely related ferns.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Groot, de G.A.; Zuidema, P.A.; Groot, H.; During, H.J.

    2012-01-01

    • Premise of the study: Current environmental changes may affect the dynamics and viability of plant populations. This environmental sensitivity may differ between species of different ploidy level because polyploidization can influence life history traits. We compared the demography and climatic

  5. Environmental, genetic, and ecophysiological variation of western and Utah juniper and their hybrids: A model system for vegetation response to climate change. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nowak, R.S. [Univ. of Nevada, Reno, NV (United States). Dept. of Environmental and Resource Sciences; Tausch, R.J. [Forest Service, Reno, NV (United States). Rocky Mountain Research Station

    1998-11-01

    This report focuses on the following two research projects relating to the biological effects of climate change: Hybridization and genetic diversity populations of Utah (Juniperus osteosperma) and western (Juniperus occidentalis) juniper: Evidence from nuclear ribosomal and chloroplast DNA; and Ecophysiological patterns of pinyon and juniper.

  6. The response of lake area and vegetation cover variations to climate change over the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau during the past 30years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zengxin; Chang, Juan; Xu, Chong-Yu; Zhou, Yang; Wu, Yanhong; Chen, Xi; Jiang, Shanshan; Duan, Zheng

    2018-09-01

    Lakes and vegetation are important factors of the Earth's hydrological cycle and can be called an "indicator" of climate change. In this study, long-term changes of lakes' area and vegetation coverage in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP) and their relations to the climate change were analyzed by using Mann-Kendall method during the past 30years. Results showed that: 1) the lakes' area of the QTP increased significantly during the past 30years as a whole, and the increasing rates have been dramatically sped up since the year of 2000. Among them, the area of Ayakekumu Lake has the fastest growing rate of 51.35%, which increased from 618km 2 in the 1980s to 983km 2 in the 2010s; 2) overall, the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) increased in the QTP during the past 30years. Above 79% of the area in the QTP showed increasing trend of NDVI before the year of 2000; 3) the air temperature increased significantly, the precipitation increased slightly, and the pan evaporation decreased significantly during the past 30years. The lake area and vegetation coverage changes might be related to the climate change. The shifts in the temporal climate trend occurred around the year 2000 had led the lake area and vegetation coverage increasing. This study is of importance in further understanding the environmental changes under global warming over the QTP. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Small-scale variations of climate change in mountainous forested terrain - a regional study from H.J. Andrews Long Term Ecological Research site in Oregon, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Honzakova, Katerina; Hoffmann, Peter; Jones, Julia; Thomas, Christoph

    2017-04-01

    There has been conflicting evidence as to whether high elevations are experiencing more pronounced climate warming than lower elevations in mountainous regions. In this study we analyze temperature records from H.J. Andrews Long Term Ecological Research, Oregon, USA and several nearby areas, comprising together 28 stations located in Cascade Mountains. The data, starting in 1958, are first checked for quality and homogenized using the Standard Normal Homogeneity Test. As a reference, composite climate time series based on the Global Historic Climate Network is created and together with cross-referencing against station records used to correct breaks and shifts in the data. In the next step, we investigate temperature patterns of the study site from 1958 to 2016 and compare them for valley and hill stations. In particular, we explore seasonality and inter-annual variability of the records and trends of the last day of frost. Additionally, 'cold' sums (positive and negative) are calculated to obtain a link between temperature and ecosystems' responses (such as budbreaks). So far, valley stations seem to be more prone to climate change than ridge or summit stations, contrary to current thinking. Building on previous knowledge, we attempt to provide physical explanations for the temperature records, focusing on wind patterns and associated phenomena such as cold air drainage and pooling. To aid this we analyze wind speed and direction data available for some of the stations since 1996, including seasonality and inter-annual variability of the observed flows.

  8. Exploring the response of net primary productivity variations to urban expansion and climate change: a scenario analysis for Guangdong Province in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pei, Fengsong; Li, Xia; Liu, Xiaoping; Lao, Chunhua; Xia, Gengrui

    2015-03-01

    Urban land development alters landscapes and carbon cycle, especially net primary productivity (NPP). Despite projections that NPP is often reduced by urbanization, little is known about NPP changes under future urban expansion and climate change conditions. In this paper, terrestrial NPP was calculated by using Biome-BGC model. However, this model does not explicitly address urban lands. Hence, we proposed a method of NPP-fraction to detect future urban NPP, assuming that the ratio of real NPP to potential NPP for urban cells remains constant for decades. Furthermore, NPP dynamics were explored by integrating the Biome-BGC and the cellular automata (CA), a widely used method for modeling urban growth. Consequently, urban expansion, climate change and their associated effects on the NPP were analyzed for the period of 2010-2039 using Guangdong Province in China as a case study. In addition, four scenarios were designed to reflect future conditions, namely baseline, climate change, urban expansion and comprehensive scenarios. Our analyses indicate that vegetation NPP in urban cells may increase (17.63 gC m(-2) year(-1)-23.35 gC m(-2) year(-1)) in the climate change scenario. However, future urban expansion may cause some NPP losses of 241.61 gC m(-2) year(-1), decupling the NPP increase of the climate change factor. Taking into account both climate change and urban expansion, vegetation NPP in urban area may decrease, minimally at a rate of 228.54 gC m(-2) year(-1) to 231.74 gC m(-2) year(-1). Nevertheless, they may account for an overall NPP increase of 0.78 TgC year(-1) to 1.28 TgC year(-1) in the whole province. All these show that the provincial NPP increase from climate change may offset the NPP decrease from urban expansion. Despite these results, it is of great significance to regulate reasonable expansion of urban lands to maintain carbon balance. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. [Drivers of human-caused fire occurrence and its variation trend under climate change in the Great Xing'an Mountains, Northeast China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Shun; Wu, Zhi Wei; Liang, Yu; He, Hong Shi

    2017-01-01

    The Great Xing'an Mountains are an important boreal forest region in China with high frequency of fire occurrences. With climate change, this region may have a substantial change in fire frequency. Building the relationship between spatial pattern of human-caused fire occurrence and its influencing factors, and predicting the spatial patterns of human-caused fires under climate change scenarios are important for fire management and carbon balance in boreal forests. We employed a spatial point pattern model to explore the relationship between the spatial pattern of human-caused fire occurrence and its influencing factors based on a database of historical fire records (1967-2006) in the Great Xing'an Mountains. The fire occurrence time was used as dependent variable. Nine abiotic (annual temperature and precipitation, elevation, aspect, and slope), biotic (vegetation type), and human factors (distance to the nearest road, road density, and distance to the nearest settlement) were selected as explanatory variables. We substituted the climate scenario data (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5) for the current climate data to predict the future spatial patterns of human-caused fire occurrence in 2050. Our results showed that the point pattern progress (PPP) model was an effective tool to predict the future relationship between fire occurrence and its spatial covariates. The climatic variables might significantly affect human-caused fire occurrence, while vegetation type, elevation and human variables were important predictors of human-caused fire occurrence. The human-caused fire occurrence probability was expected to increase in the south of the area, and the north and the area along the main roads would also become areas with high human-caused fire occurrence. The human-caused fire occurrence would increase by 72.2% under the RCP 2.6 scenario and by 166.7% under the RCP 8.5 scenario in 2050. Under climate change scenarios, the spatial patterns of human-caused fires were mainly

  10. Climate in Earth history

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berger, W. H.; Crowell, J. C.

    1982-01-01

    Complex atmosphere-ocean-land interactions govern the climate system and its variations. During the course of Earth history, nature has performed a large number of experiments involving climatic change; the geologic record contains much information regarding these experiments. This information should result in an increased understanding of the climate system, including climatic stability and factors that perturb climate. In addition, the paleoclimatic record has been demonstrated to be useful in interpreting the origin of important resources-petroleum, natural gas, coal, phosphate deposits, and many others.

  11. Environmental variation and population responses to global change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lawson, Callum R.; Vindenes, Yngvild; Bailey, Liam; van de Pol, Martijn

    2015-01-01

    Species' responses to environmental changes such as global warming are affected not only by trends in mean conditions, but also by natural and human-induced environmental fluctuations. Methods are needed to predict how such environmental variation affects ecological and evolutionary processes, in

  12. Inter-Seasonal and Annual Co-Variation of Smallholder Production Portfolios, Volumes and Incomes with Rainfall and Flood Levels in the Amazon Estuary: Implications for Building Livelihood Resilience to Increasing Variability of Hydro-Climatic Regimes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vogt, N. D.; Fernandes, K.; Pinedo-Vasquez, M.; Brondizio, E. S.; Almeida, O.; Rivero, S.; Rabelo, F. R.; Dou, Y.; Deadman, P.

    2014-12-01

    In this paper we investigate inter-seasonal and annual co-variations of rainfall and flood levels with Caboclo production portfolios, and proportions of it they sell and consume, in the Amazon Estuary from August 2012 to August 2014. Caboclos of the estuary maintain a diverse and flexible land-use portfolio, with a shift in dominant use from agriculture to agroforestry and forestry since WWII (Vogt et al., 2014). The current landscape is configured for acai, shrimp and fish production. In the last decade the frequency of wet seasons with anomalous flood levels and duration has increased primarily from changes in rainfall and discharge from upstream basins. Local rainfall, though with less influence on extreme estuarine flood levels, is reported to be more sporadic and intense in wet season and variable in both wet and dry seasons, for yet unknown reasons. The current production portfolio and its flexibility are felt to build resilience to these increases in hydro-climatic variability and extreme events. What is less understood, for time and costliness of daily measures at household levels, is how variations in flood and rainfall levels affect shifts in the current production portfolio of estuarine Caboclos, and the proportions of it they sell and consume. This is needed to identify what local hydro-climatic thresholds are extreme for current livelihoods, that is, that most adversely affect food security and income levels. It is also needed identify the large-scale forcings driving those extreme conditions to build forecasts for when they will occur. Here we present results of production, rainfall and flood data collected daily in households from both the North and South Channel of the Amazon estuary over last two years to identify how they co-vary, and robustness of current production portfolio under different hydro-climatic conditions.

  13. Europe adapts to climate change. Comparing National Adaptation Strategies in Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Swart, R.J.; Biesbroek, G.R.; Binnerup, S.; Carter, T.; Cowan, C.; Henrichs, T.; Loquen, S.; Mela, H.; Morecroft, M.; Reese, M.; Rey, D.

    2009-01-01

    Climate Change is happening. Even if global emission reductions and mitigation efforts over the next decades prove to be successful, a signifi cant amount of human-induced climate change has become inevitable. In addition to efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, many EU countries are therefore

  14. Anthropogenic Climate Change in Undergraduate Marine and Environmental Science Programs in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vlietstra, Lucy S.; Mrakovcich, Karina L.; Futch, Victoria C.; Stutzman, Brooke S.

    2016-01-01

    To develop a context for program-level design decisions pertaining to anthropogenic climate change, the authors studied the prevalence of courses focused on human-induced climate change in undergraduate marine science and environmental science degree programs in the United States. Of the 86 institutions and 125 programs the authors examined, 37%…

  15. Greenhouse effect and climatic consequences: a scientific evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1991-01-01

    The greenhouse effect and its causes and mechanisms are first recalled; anthropogenic contribution (CO2, CFC, ...) is evaluated and related to the biosphere temperature variation, without neglecting natural climatic variations. Based on climate models and energy scenarios, anthropogenic contribution effects on climatic variation, sea-level rise, etc. are evaluated and compared. Recommendations for improving precision of climate models are proposed [fr

  16. Natural disaster vulnerability and human-induced pressure assessment in small islands developing states: A case study in the Union of the Comoros

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burak, S.; Meddeb, R.

    2012-04-01

    The Comoros Islands are part of the Small Island Developing States (SIDS) located in the Indian Ocean. SIDS are islands and low-lying coastal nations that face common barriers to sustainable development, including limited resources, poor economic resilience, and vulnerability to sea level rise and natural disasters. The Comoros Archipelago is made up of four islands but the present study was conducted on three islands, namely Mwali (Mohéli), Ngazidja (Grande Comore) and Dzwani (Anjouan) that are aligned in the Mozambique Channel and spread over a surface area of 1862 km2. These islands are exposed to natural disaster coupled with human-induced pressure on natural resources. The major natural disaster vulnerability has been identified by the National AdaptationProgramme of Action (NAPA, 2006) as climate change, whose likely adverse impacts on the Comoros Islands are: i) changes in rainfall patterns; ii) increases in temperature; iii) salinization of coastal aquifers as a result of salt water intrusion due to sea level rise; and iv) increased frequency of severe weather conditions (such as tropical cyclones, droughts, heavy rainfall and flooding). In addition, existing practices related to natural resources management (primarily land, forest and water management) are very poor and this failure is increasingly threatening water and food security, resulting in a decline of economic growth and standards of living within the Comoros. Human-induced pressure combined with climate change impact is the inherent vulnerabilities of these islands. The government of the Union of the Comoros is aware of the alarming nature of climate change impact and has put in place several projects aiming at implementing adaptation measures in order to help increase the resilience of the vulnerable population in the face of this threat. These projects involve strengthening institutions, policy and regulations so as to improve the management of natural resources, among other measures. The

  17. Impact of late glacial climate variations on stratification and trophic state of the meromictic lake Längsee (Austria: validation of a conceptual model by multi proxy studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jens MÜLLER

    2002-02-01

    Full Text Available Selected pigments, diatoms and diatom-inferred phosphorus (Di-TP concentrations of a late glacial sediment core section of the meromictic Längsee, Austria, were compared with tephra- and varve-dated pollen stratigraphic and geochemical results. A conceptual model was adopted for Längsee and evaluated using multi proxy data. During the unforested late Pleniglacial, a holomictic lake stage with low primary productivity prevailed. Subsequent to the Lateglacial Betula expansion, at about 14,300 cal. y BP, okenone and isorenieratene, pigments from purple and green sulphur bacteria, indicate the onset of anoxic conditions in the hypolimnion. The formation of laminae coincides with this anoxic, meromictic period with high, though fluctuating, amounts of okenone that persisted throughout the Lateglacial interstadial. The occurrence of unlaminated sediment sections of allochthonous origin, and concurrent low concentrations of okenone, were related to cool and wet climate fluctuations during this period, probably coupled with a complete mixing of the water column. Two of these oscillations of the Lateglacial interstadial have been correlated tentatively with the Aegelsee and Gerzensee oscillations in the Alps. The latter climate fluctuation divides a period of enhanced anoxia and primary productivity, correlated with the Alleröd chronozone. Continental climate conditions were assumed to be the main driving forces for meromictic stability during Alleröd times. In addition, calcite dissolution due to severe hypolimnetic anoxia, appear to have supported meromictic stability. Increased pigment concentrations, which are in contrast to low diatom-inferred total phosphorus (Di- TP, indicate the formation of a productive metalimnion during this period, probably due to a clear-water phase (low catchment erosion, increased temperatures, and a steep gradient between the phosphorus enriched hypolimnion and the oligotrophic epilimnion. Meltwater impacts from an

  18. Human induced pluripotent stem cell-derived vascular smooth muscle cells

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ayoubi, Sohrab; Sheikh, Søren P; Eskildsen, Tilde V

    2017-01-01

    . To this end, human induced pluripotent stem cells (hiPSCs) have generated great enthusiasm, and have been a driving force for development of novel strategies in drug discovery and regenerative cell-therapy for the last decade. Hence, investigating the mechanisms underlying the differentiation of hi......PSCs into specialized cell types such as cardiomyocytes, endothelial cells, and vascular smooth muscle cells (VSMCs) may lead to a better understanding of developmental cardiovascular processes and potentiate progress of safe autologous regenerative therapies in pathological conditions. In this review, we summarize...

  19. Establishment of Human Neural Progenitor Cells from Human Induced Pluripotent Stem Cells with Diverse Tissue Origins

    OpenAIRE

    Hayato Fukusumi; Tomoko Shofuda; Yohei Bamba; Atsuyo Yamamoto; Daisuke Kanematsu; Yukako Handa; Keisuke Okita; Masaya Nakamura; Shinya Yamanaka; Hideyuki Okano; Yonehiro Kanemura

    2016-01-01

    Human neural progenitor cells (hNPCs) have previously been generated from limited numbers of human induced pluripotent stem cell (hiPSC) clones. Here, 21 hiPSC clones derived from human dermal fibroblasts, cord blood cells, and peripheral blood mononuclear cells were differentiated using two neural induction methods, an embryoid body (EB) formation-based method and an EB formation method using dual SMAD inhibitors (dSMADi). Our results showed that expandable hNPCs could be generated from hiPS...

  20. Donor cell type can influence the epigenome and differentiation potential of human induced pluripotent stem cells

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Kitai; Zhao, Rui; Doi, Akiko; Ng, Kitwa; Unternaehrer, Juli; Cahan, Patrick; Hongguang, Huo; Loh, Yuin-Han; Aryee, Martin J.; Lensch, M. William; Li, Hu; Collins, James J.; Feinberg, Andrew P.; Daley, George Q.

    2012-01-01

    We compared bona-fide human induced pluripotent stem cells (iPSC) derived from umbilical cord blood (CB) and neonatal keratinocytes (K). As a consequence of both incomplete erasure of tissue-specific methylation and aberrant de novo methylation, CB-iPSC and K-iPSC are distinct in genome-wide DNA methylation profiles and differentiation potential. Extended passage of some iPSC clones in culture didn't improve their epigenetic resemblance to ESC, implying that some human iPSC retain a residual “epigenetic memory” of their tissue of origin. PMID:22119740

  1. Solar activity variations cause climatic change. History of the climate and the dominant role of the sun; Wisselende zonne-activiteit veroorzaakt klimaatveranderingen. Klimaatgeschiedenis wijst op dominante rol van de zon

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Van Geel, B. [Instituut voor Biodiversiteit en Ecosysteem Dynamica, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Amsterdam (Netherlands)

    2007-07-01

    Bio-geological research shows that the climate is hypersensitive to small changes in the activities of the sun. Today and in the future the influence of the sun could very well be larger than the (possibly) increased greenhouse effect. If this turns out to be the case, it may constitute a major disaster for researchers, politicians and social organizations that have committed themselves exceedingly to the IPCC and the hypothesis of anthropogenic climate change. This disaster can be prevented if they are willing to take research of the climate archive in the ground seriously. [mk]. [Dutch] Biogeologisch onderzoek laat zien dat het klimaat hypergevoelig is voor kleine veranderingen in de activiteit van de zon. Ook heden ten dage en in de toekomst zou de invloed van de zon wel eens sterker kunnen zijn dan het (eventueel) versterkte broeikaseffect. Is dat inderdaad het geval dan betekent dat een enorm debacle voor onderzoekers, politici en maatschappelijke organisaties die zich verregaand hebben gecommitteerd aan het IPCC en de hypothese van antropogene klimaatverandering. Een debacle dat kan worden voorkomen als zij bereid zijn om onderzoek naar het klimaatarchief in de bodem serieus te nemen.

  2. Review: The impact of changing human environment and climate ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The impact of human-induced climate change through industrialization with the consequent depletion of the ozone layer of the environment is now observed to compromise the sustainability of human development as it threatens the ecological support system on which life depends in addition to encouraging the emergence ...

  3. Climates Past, Present, and Yet-to-Come Shape Climate Change Vulnerabilities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nadeau, Christopher P; Urban, Mark C; Bridle, Jon R

    2017-10-01

    Climate change is altering life at multiple scales, from genes to ecosystems. Predicting the vulnerability of populations to climate change is crucial to mitigate negative impacts. We suggest that regional patterns of spatial and temporal climatic variation scaled to the traits of an organism can predict where and why populations are most vulnerable to climate change. Specifically, historical climatic variation affects the sensitivity and response capacity of populations to climate change by shaping traits and the genetic variation in those traits. Present and future climatic variation can affect both climate change exposure and population responses. We provide seven predictions for how climatic variation might affect the vulnerability of populations to climate change and suggest key directions for future research. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Analysis of climatic variations in seasonal precipitation and temperature in Salamanca (Spain); Analisis de las variaciones climaticas en series estacionales de temperatura y precipitacion en Salamanca (Espana)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garcia Casado, A.; Encinas, A.H.; Rodriguez Puebla, C. [Dpto. de Fisica General y de la Atmosfera Universidad de Salamanca, Salamanca (Spain)

    1996-12-31

    This paper describes the seasonal precipitation and temperature variability in Salamanca. The objectives of the study are: to determine the climate signals on inter annual time-scale within the time series; to redefine the series as a function of the significant oscillation components and to predict local precipitation and temperature variables. The methods used are spectral analysis to obtain the periods of the significant components, linear and nonlinear regression models to obtain the analytical functions that best fit the data. (Author) 14 refs.

  5. Efficient generation of megakaryocytes from human induced pluripotent stem cells using food and drug administration-approved pharmacological reagents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yanfeng; Wang, Ying; Gao, Yongxing; Forbes, Jessica A; Qayyum, Rehan; Becker, Lewis; Cheng, Linzhao; Wang, Zack Z

    2015-04-01

    Megakaryocytes (MKs) are rare hematopoietic cells in the adult bone marrow and produce platelets that are critical to vascular hemostasis and wound healing. Ex vivo generation of MKs from human induced pluripotent stem cells (hiPSCs) provides a renewable cell source of platelets for treating thrombocytopenic patients and allows a better understanding of MK/platelet biology. The key requirements in this approach include developing a robust and consistent method to produce functional progeny cells, such as MKs from hiPSCs, and minimizing the risk and variation from the animal-derived products in cell cultures. In this study, we developed an efficient system to generate MKs from hiPSCs under a feeder-free and xeno-free condition, in which all animal-derived products were eliminated. Several crucial reagents were evaluated and replaced with Food and Drug Administration-approved pharmacological reagents, including romiplostim (Nplate, a thrombopoietin analog), oprelvekin (recombinant interleukin-11), and Plasbumin (human albumin). We used this method to induce MK generation from hiPSCs derived from 23 individuals in two steps: generation of CD34(+)CD45(+) hematopoietic progenitor cells (HPCs) for 14 days; and generation and expansion of CD41(+)CD42a(+) MKs from HPCs for an additional 5 days. After 19 days, we observed abundant CD41(+)CD42a(+) MKs that also expressed the MK markers CD42b and CD61 and displayed polyploidy (≥16% of derived cells with DNA contents >4N). Transcriptome analysis by RNA sequencing revealed that megakaryocytic-related genes were highly expressed. Additional maturation and investigation of hiPSC-derived MKs should provide insights into MK biology and lead to the generation of large numbers of platelets ex vivo. ©AlphaMed Press.

  6. DNA double-strand breaks in human induced pluripotent stem cell reprogramming and long-term in vitro culturing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simara, Pavel; Tesarova, Lenka; Rehakova, Daniela; Matula, Pavel; Stejskal, Stanislav; Hampl, Ales; Koutna, Irena

    2017-03-21

    Human induced pluripotent stem cells (hiPSCs) play roles in both disease modelling and regenerative medicine. It is critical that the genomic integrity of the cells remains intact and that the DNA repair systems are fully functional. In this article, we focused on the detection of DNA double-strand breaks (DSBs) by phosphorylated histone H2AX (known as γH2AX) and p53-binding protein 1 (53BP1) in three distinct lines of hiPSCs, their source cells, and one line of human embryonic stem cells (hESCs). We measured spontaneously occurring DSBs throughout the process of fibroblast reprogramming and during long-term in vitro culturing. To assess the variations in the functionality of the DNA repair system among the samples, the number of DSBs induced by γ-irradiation and the decrease over time was analysed. The foci number was detected by fluorescence microscopy separately for the G1 and S/G2 cell cycle phases. We demonstrated that fibroblasts contained a low number of non-replication-related DSBs, while this number increased after reprogramming into hiPSCs and then decreased again after long-term in vitro passaging. The artificial induction of DSBs revealed that the repair mechanisms function well in the source cells and hiPSCs at low passages, but fail to recognize a substantial proportion of DSBs at high passages. Our observations suggest that cellular reprogramming increases the DSB number but that the repair mechanism functions well. However, after prolonged in vitro culturing of hiPSCs, the repair capacity decreases.

  7. Behavioural responses to human-induced change: Why fishing should not be ignored.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diaz Pauli, Beatriz; Sih, Andrew

    2017-03-01

    Change in behaviour is usually the first response to human-induced environmental change and key for determining whether a species adapts to environmental change or becomes maladapted. Thus, understanding the behavioural response to human-induced changes is crucial in the interplay between ecology, evolution, conservation and management. Yet the behavioural response to fishing activities has been largely ignored. We review studies contrasting how fish behaviour affects catch by passive (e.g., long lines, angling) versus active gears (e.g., trawls, seines). We show that fishing not only targets certain behaviours, but it leads to a multitrait response including behavioural, physiological and life-history traits with population, community and ecosystem consequences. Fisheries-driven change (plastic or evolutionary) of fish behaviour and its correlated traits could impact fish populations well beyond their survival per se , affecting predation risk, foraging behaviour, dispersal, parental care, etc., and hence numerous ecological issues including population dynamics and trophic cascades . In particular, we discuss implications of behavioural responses to fishing for fisheries management and population resilience. More research on these topics, however, is needed to draw general conclusions, and we suggest fruitful directions for future studies.

  8. Some international perspectives on legislation for the management of human-induced safety risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alfonso Niemand

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Legislation that governs the health and safety of communities near major-hazard installations in South Africa is largely based on existing legislation that had been developed in the United Kingdom and other European Union countries. The latter was developed as a consequence of several major human-induced technological disasters in Europe. The history of the evolution of health-and-safety legislation for the protection of vulnerable communities in European Union (EU countries, France, Malaysia and the USA is explored through a literature survey. A concise comparison is drawn between EU countries, the USA and South Africa to obtain an exploratory view of whether current South-African legislation represents an optimum model for the protection of the health-and-safety of workers and communities near major-hazard installations. The authors come to the conclusion that South-African legislation needs revision as was done in the UK in 2011. Specific areas in the legislation that need revision are an overlap between occupational health and safety and environmental legislation, appropriate land-use planning for the protection of communities near major-hazard installations, the inclusion of vulnerability studies and the refinement of appropriate decision-making instruments such as risk assessment. This article is the first in a series that forms part of a broader study aimed at the development of an optimised model for the regulatory management of human-induced health and safety risks associated with hazardous installations in South Africa.

  9. Quantitative assessment of human-induced impacts based on net primary productivity in Guangzhou, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Yanyan; Wu, Zhifeng

    2018-02-08

    Urban expansion and land cover change driven primarily by human activities have significant influences on the urban eco-environment, and together with climate change jointly alter net primary productivity (NPP). However, at the spatiotemporal scale, there has been limited quantitative analysis of the impacts of human activities independent of climate change on NPP. We chose Guangzhou city as a study area to analyze the impacts of human activities on NPP, as well as the spatiotemporal variations of those impacts within three segments, using a relative impact index (RII) based on potential NPP (NPP p ), actual NPP (NPP act ), and NPP appropriation due to land use/land cover change (NPP lulc ). The spatial patterns and dynamics of NPP act and NPP lulc were evaluated and the impacts of human activities on NPP during the process of urban sprawl were quantitatively analyzed and assessed using the RII. The results showed that NPP act and NPP lulc in the study area had clear spatial heterogeneity, between 2001 and 2013 there was a declining trend in NPP act while an increasing trend occurred in NPP lulc , and those trends were especially significant in the 10-40-km segment. The results also revealed that more than 91.0% of pixels in whole study region had positive RII values, while the lowest average RII values were found in the > 40-km segment (39.03%), indicating that human activities were not the main cause for the change in NPP there; meanwhile, the average RII was greater than 65.0% in the other two, suggesting that they were subjected to severe anthropogenic disturbances. The RII values in all three segments of the study area increased, indicating an increasing human interference. The 10-40-km buffer zone had the largest slope value (0.5665), suggesting that this segment was closely associated with growing human disturbances. Particularly noteworthy is the fact that the > 40-km segment had a large slope value (0.3323) and required more conservation efforts. Based

  10. Introduction to climate change adaptation and mitigation management options

    Science.gov (United States)

    James M. Vose; Kier D. Klepzig

    2014-01-01

    Climate is a critical factor shaping the structure and function of forest ecosystems in the Southern United States. Human induced changes in climate systems have resulted in an increase in the global average air temperature of about 0.8°C since the 1900s (Pachuri and Reisinger 2007). Data from long-term weather stations show that overall, the continental United States...

  11. Climate change and the Syrian civil war revisited

    OpenAIRE

    Selby, Jan; Dahi, Omar S; Fröhlich, Christiane; Hulme, Mike

    2017-01-01

    For proponents of the view that anthropogenic climate change will become a ‘threat multiplier’ for instability in the decades ahead, the Syrian civil war has become a recurring reference point, providing apparently compelling evidence that such conflict effects are already upon us. According to proponents of this thesis, human-induced climatic change was a contributory factor in the extreme drought experienced by Syria prior to its civil war; this drought in turn led to large-scale migration;...