Tools and technologies for expert systems: A human factors perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Rajaram, Navaratna S.

1987-01-01

It is widely recognized that technologies based on artificial intelligence (AI), especially expert systems, can make significant contributions to the productivity and effectiveness of operations of information and knowledge intensive organizations such as NASA. At the same time, these being relatively new technologies, there is the problem of transfering technology to key personnel of such organizations. The problems of examining the potential of expert systems and of technology transfer is addressed in the context of human factors applications. One of the topics of interest was the investigation of the potential use of expert system building tools, particularly NEXPERT as a technology transfer medium. Two basic conclusions were reached in this regard. First, NEXPERT is an excellent tool for rapid prototyping of experimental expert systems, but not ideal as a delivery vehicle. Therefore, it is not a substitute for general purpose system implementation languages such a LISP or C. This assertion probably holds for nearly all such tools on the market today. Second, an effective technology transfer mechanism is to formulate and implement expert systems for problems which members of the organization in question can relate to. For this purpose, the LIghting EnGineering Expert (LIEGE) was implemented using NEXPERT as the tool for technology transfer and to illustrate the value of expert systems to the activities of the Man-System Division.

Generating human reliability estimates using expert judgment. Volume 1. Main report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Comer, M.K.; Seaver, D.A.; Stillwell, W.G.; Gaddy, C.D.

1984-11-01

The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission is conducting a research program to determine the practicality, acceptability, and usefulness of several different methods for obtaining human reliability data and estimates that can be used in nuclear power plant probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). One method, investigated as part of this overall research program, uses expert judgment to generate human error probability (HEP) estimates and associated uncertainty bounds. The project described in this document evaluated two techniques for using expert judgment: paired comparisons and direct numerical estimation. Volume 1 of this report provides a brief overview of the background of the project, the procedure for using psychological scaling techniques to generate HEP estimates and conclusions from evaluation of the techniques. Results of the evaluation indicate that techniques using expert judgment should be given strong consideration for use in developing HEP estimates. In addition, HEP estimates for 35 tasks related to boiling water reactors (BMRs) were obtained as part of the evaluation. These HEP estimates are also included in the report

Embedding Human Expert Cognition Into Autonomous UAS Trajectory Planning.

Science.gov (United States)

Narayan, Pritesh; Meyer, Patrick; Campbell, Duncan

2013-04-01

This paper presents a new approach for the inclusion of human expert cognition into autonomous trajectory planning for unmanned aerial systems (UASs) operating in low-altitude environments. During typical UAS operations, multiple objectives may exist; therefore, the use of multicriteria decision aid techniques can potentially allow for convergence to trajectory solutions which better reflect overall mission requirements. In that context, additive multiattribute value theory has been applied to optimize trajectories with respect to multiple objectives. A graphical user interface was developed to allow for knowledge capture from a human decision maker (HDM) through simulated decision scenarios. The expert decision data gathered are converted into value functions and corresponding criteria weightings using utility additive theory. The inclusion of preferences elicited from HDM data within an automated decision system allows for the generation of trajectories which more closely represent the candidate HDM decision preferences. This approach has been demonstrated in this paper through simulation using a fixed-wing UAS operating in low-altitude environments.

Cognitive engineering in the design of human-computer interaction and expert systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Salvendy, G.

1987-01-01

The 68 papers contributing to this book cover the following areas: Theories of Interface Design; Methodologies of Interface Design; Applications of Interface Design; Software Design; Human Factors in Speech Technology and Telecommunications; Design of Graphic Dialogues; Knowledge Acquisition for Knowledge-Based Systems; Design, Evaluation and Use of Expert Systems. This demonstrates the dual role of cognitive engineering. On the one hand cognitive engineering is utilized to design computing systems which are compatible with human cognition and can be effectively and be easily utilized by all individuals. On the other hand, cognitive engineering is utilized to transfer human cognition into the computer for the purpose of building expert systems. Two papers are of interest to INIS

Dog Experts' Brains Distinguish Socially Relevant Body Postures Similarly in Dogs and Humans

OpenAIRE

Kujala, Miiamaaria; Kujala, Jan; Carlson, Synnove; Hari, Riitta

2012-01-01

We read conspecifics' social cues effortlessly, but little is known about our abilities to understand social gestures of other species. To investigate the neural underpinnings of such skills, we used functional magnetic resonance imaging to study the brain activity of experts and non-experts of dog behavior while they observed humans or dogs either interacting with, or facing away from a conspecific. The posterior superior temporal sulcus (pSTS) of both subject groups dissociated humans facin...

Medical Expert Systems Survey

OpenAIRE

Abu-Nasser, Bassem S.

2017-01-01

International audience; There is an increased interest in the area of Artificial Intelligence in general and expert systems in particular. Expert systems are rapidly growing technology. Expert systems are a branch of Artificial Intelligence which is having a great impact on many fields of human life. Expert systems use human expert knowledge to solve complex problems in many fields such as Health, science, engineering, business, and weather forecasting. Organizations employing the technology ...

Credit scores, cardiovascular disease risk, and human capital.

Science.gov (United States)

Israel, Salomon; Caspi, Avshalom; Belsky, Daniel W; Harrington, HonaLee; Hogan, Sean; Houts, Renate; Ramrakha, Sandhya; Sanders, Seth; Poulton, Richie; Moffitt, Terrie E

2014-12-02

Credit scores are the most widely used instruments to assess whether or not a person is a financial risk. Credit scoring has been so successful that it has expanded beyond lending and into our everyday lives, even to inform how insurers evaluate our health. The pervasive application of credit scoring has outpaced knowledge about why credit scores are such useful indicators of individual behavior. Here we test if the same factors that lead to poor credit scores also lead to poor health. Following the Dunedin (New Zealand) Longitudinal Study cohort of 1,037 study members, we examined the association between credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk and the underlying factors that account for this association. We find that credit scores are negatively correlated with cardiovascular disease risk. Variation in household income was not sufficient to account for this association. Rather, individual differences in human capital factors—educational attainment, cognitive ability, and self-control—predicted both credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk and accounted for ∼45% of the correlation between credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk. Tracing human capital factors back to their childhood antecedents revealed that the characteristic attitudes, behaviors, and competencies children develop in their first decade of life account for a significant portion (∼22%) of the link between credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk at midlife. We discuss the implications of these findings for policy debates about data privacy, financial literacy, and early childhood interventions.

Expert Systems

OpenAIRE

Lucas, P.J.F.

2005-01-01

Expert systems mimic the problem-solving activity of human experts in specialized domains by capturing and representing expert knowledge. Expert systems include a knowledge base, an inference engine that derives conclusions from the knowledge, and a user interface. Knowledge may be stored as if-then rules, orusing other formalisms such as frames and predicate logic. Uncertain knowledge may be represented using certainty factors, Bayesian networks, Dempster-Shafer belief functions, or fuzzy se...

Expert judgement on inadvertent human intrusion into the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hora, S.C.; von Winterfeldt, D.; Trauth, K.M.

1991-12-01

Four expert-judgment teams have developed analyses delineating possible future societies in the next 10,000 years in the vicinity of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). Expert-judgment analysis was used to address the question of future societies because neither experimentation, observation, nor modeling can resolve such uncertainties. Each of the four, four-member teams, comprised of individuals with expertise in the physical, social, or political sciences, developed detailed qualitative assessments of possible future societies. These assessments include detailed discussions of the underlying physical and societal factors that would influence society and the likely modes of human-intrusion at the WIPP, as well as the probabilities of intrusion. Technological development, population growth, economic development, conservation of information, persistence of government control, and mitigation of danger from nuclear waste were the factors the teams believed to be most important. Likely modes of human-intrusion were categorized as excavation, disposal/storage, tunneling, drilling, and offsite activities. Each team also developed quantitative assessments by providing probabilities of various alternative futures, of inadvertent human intrusion, and in some cases, of particular modes of intrusion. The information created throughout this study will be used in conjunction with other types of information, including experimental data, calculations from physical principles and computer models, and perhaps other judgments, as input to ''performance assessment.'' The more qualitative results of this study will be used as input to another expert panel considering markers to deter inadvertent human intrusion at the WIPP

Quality dependent fusion of intramodal and multimodal biometric experts

Science.gov (United States)

Kittler, J.; Poh, N.; Fatukasi, O.; Messer, K.; Kryszczuk, K.; Richiardi, J.; Drygajlo, A.

2007-04-01

We address the problem of score level fusion of intramodal and multimodal experts in the context of biometric identity verification. We investigate the merits of confidence based weighting of component experts. In contrast to the conventional approach where confidence values are derived from scores, we use instead raw measures of biometric data quality to control the influence of each expert on the final fused score. We show that quality based fusion gives better performance than quality free fusion. The use of quality weighted scores as features in the definition of the fusion functions leads to further improvements. We demonstrate that the achievable performance gain is also affected by the choice of fusion architecture. The evaluation of the proposed methodology involves 6 face and one speech verification experts. It is carried out on the XM2VTS data base.

Quasi-supervised scoring of human sleep in polysomnograms using augmented input variables.

Science.gov (United States)

Yaghouby, Farid; Sunderam, Sridhar

2015-04-01

The limitations of manual sleep scoring make computerized methods highly desirable. Scoring errors can arise from human rater uncertainty or inter-rater variability. Sleep scoring algorithms either come as supervised classifiers that need scored samples of each state to be trained, or as unsupervised classifiers that use heuristics or structural clues in unscored data to define states. We propose a quasi-supervised classifier that models observations in an unsupervised manner but mimics a human rater wherever training scores are available. EEG, EMG, and EOG features were extracted in 30s epochs from human-scored polysomnograms recorded from 42 healthy human subjects (18-79 years) and archived in an anonymized, publicly accessible database. Hypnograms were modified so that: 1. Some states are scored but not others; 2. Samples of all states are scored but not for transitional epochs; and 3. Two raters with 67% agreement are simulated. A framework for quasi-supervised classification was devised in which unsupervised statistical models-specifically Gaussian mixtures and hidden Markov models--are estimated from unlabeled training data, but the training samples are augmented with variables whose values depend on available scores. Classifiers were fitted to signal features incorporating partial scores, and used to predict scores for complete recordings. Performance was assessed using Cohen's Κ statistic. The quasi-supervised classifier performed significantly better than an unsupervised model and sometimes as well as a completely supervised model despite receiving only partial scores. The quasi-supervised algorithm addresses the need for classifiers that mimic scoring patterns of human raters while compensating for their limitations. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

EXPERT SYSTEMS

OpenAIRE

Georgiana Marin; Mihai Catalin Andrei

2011-01-01

In recent decades IT and computer systems have evolved rapidly in economic informatics field. The goal is to create user friendly information systems that respond promptly and accurately to requests. Informatics systems evolved into decision assisted systems, and such systems are converted, based on gained experience, in expert systems for creative problem solving that an organization is facing. Expert systems are aimed at rebuilding human reasoning on the expertise obtained from experts, sto...

Transforming Biology Assessment with Machine Learning: Automated Scoring of Written Evolutionary Explanations

Science.gov (United States)

Nehm, Ross H.; Ha, Minsu; Mayfield, Elijah

2012-01-01

This study explored the use of machine learning to automatically evaluate the accuracy of students' written explanations of evolutionary change. Performance of the Summarization Integrated Development Environment (SIDE) program was compared to human expert scoring using a corpus of 2,260 evolutionary explanations written by 565 undergraduate…

Psychological scaling of expert estimates of human error probabilities: application to nuclear power plant operation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Comer, K.; Gaddy, C.D.; Seaver, D.A.; Stillwell, W.G.

1985-01-01

The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and Sandia National Laboratories sponsored a project to evaluate psychological scaling techniques for use in generating estimates of human error probabilities. The project evaluated two techniques: direct numerical estimation and paired comparisons. Expert estimates were found to be consistent across and within judges. Convergent validity was good, in comparison to estimates in a handbook of human reliability. Predictive validity could not be established because of the lack of actual relative frequencies of error (which will be a difficulty inherent in validation of any procedure used to estimate HEPs). Application of expert estimates in probabilistic risk assessment and in human factors is discussed

Hierarchical Model of Assessing and Selecting Experts

OpenAIRE

Chernysheva, Tatiana Yurievna; Korchuganova, Mariya Anatolievna; Borisov, V. V.; Minkov, S. L.

2016-01-01

Revealing experts' competences is a multi-objective issue. Authors of the paper deal with competence assessing methods of experts seen as objects, and criteria of qualities. An analytic hierarchy process of assessing and ranking experts is offered, which is based on paired comparison matrices and scores, quality parameters are taken into account as well. Calculation and assessment of experts is given as an example.

A scored human protein-protein interaction network to catalyze genomic interpretation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Li, Taibo; Wernersson, Rasmus; Hansen, Rasmus B

2017-01-01

Genome-scale human protein-protein interaction networks are critical to understanding cell biology and interpreting genomic data, but challenging to produce experimentally. Through data integration and quality control, we provide a scored human protein-protein interaction network (InWeb_InBioMap,......Genome-scale human protein-protein interaction networks are critical to understanding cell biology and interpreting genomic data, but challenging to produce experimentally. Through data integration and quality control, we provide a scored human protein-protein interaction network (In...

METHODOLOGICAL APPROACHES TO EXPERT EVALUATION OF PRECLINICAL AND CLINICAL TRIALS OF HUMAN IMMUNOGLOBULIN PRODUCTS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

V. B. Ivanov

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The article considers the experience of Russian and leading foreign regulatory agencies in organisation and conduction of preclinical and clinical trials of human immunoglobulin products. The authors suggest a classification of human immunoglobulins and provide updated information on authorization of these products in Russia. The article summarizes methodological approaches, basic scientific principles and criteria relating to expert evaluation of preclinical and clinical trials of blood products. The authors further define the expert body’s requirements for data on preclinical and clinical trials of human normal immuniglobulins and human specific immunoglobulins for the prevention and/or treatment of infectious and non-infectious diseases which are submitted as part of applications for marketing authorization or marketing authorization variation. The article suggests programs of preclinical and clinical trials for human normal immunoglobulins and human specific immunoglobulins for the prevention and/or treatment of infectious and non-infectious diseases that are aligned with the Russian legislation and Eurasian Economic Union’s regulations on medicines circulation, and have been elaborated with respect to the guidelines of the European Medicines Agency.

Comparing the Scoring of Human Decomposition from Digital Images to Scoring Using On-site Observations.

Science.gov (United States)

Dabbs, Gretchen R; Bytheway, Joan A; Connor, Melissa

2017-09-01

When in forensic casework or empirical research in-person assessment of human decomposition is not possible, the sensible substitution is color photographic images. To date, no research has confirmed the utility of color photographic images as a proxy for in situ observation of the level of decomposition. Sixteen observers scored photographs of 13 human cadavers in varying decomposition stages (PMI 2-186 days) using the Total Body Score system (total n = 929 observations). The on-site TBS was compared with recorded observations from digital color images using a paired samples t-test. The average difference between on-site and photographic observations was -0.20 (t = -1.679, df = 928, p = 0.094). Individually, only two observers, both students with human decomposition based on digital images can be substituted for assessments based on observation of the corpse in situ, when necessary. © 2017 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

[Social engineers--providers--bioethicists. Human genetics experts in West-Germany and Denmark between 1950 and 1990].

Science.gov (United States)

Thomaschke, Dirk

2013-01-01

The author compares the history of human genetics in the Federal Republic of Germany and Denmark from the 1950s to the 1980s. The paper combines a discourse analysis with the exploration of human genetics experts' subject forms along the lines of current considerations within cultural studies. In the 1950s and 1960s, human geneticists acted in close cooperation with other political, judicial and administrative expert groups. They monitored the 'overall genetic development' of the population and cautioned about 'genetic crises'. Laypersons were supposed to submit to 'objectively reasonable' behavioral patterns--to their own as well as society's benefit. In the 1970s, the experts turned into 'providers' of a 'precise, purely medical, diagnostic service'. The patients mainly appeared as 'de-personalized' sources of a common human demand for 'safe eugenic information'. In the 1980s, the demand and supply paradigm manifested psychological and ethical side effects. Human geneticists became aware of the social and historical interrelations of their research and practices. The results of this study contribute to a more complex understanding of the dominant 'individualization narrative' of human genetics history. In this context, the development in Germany and Denmark displays two complementary forms of a transnational discourse.

Computers Simulate Human Experts.

Science.gov (United States)

Roberts, Steven K.

1983-01-01

Discusses recent progress in artificial intelligence in such narrowly defined areas as medical and electronic diagnosis. Also discusses use of expert systems, man-machine communication problems, novel programing environments (including comments on LISP and LISP machines), and types of knowledge used (factual, heuristic, and meta-knowledge). (JN)

Hierarchical Model of Assessing and Selecting Experts

Science.gov (United States)

Chernysheva, T. Y.; Korchuganova, M. A.; Borisov, V. V.; Min'kov, S. L.

2016-04-01

Revealing experts’ competences is a multi-objective issue. Authors of the paper deal with competence assessing methods of experts seen as objects, and criteria of qualities. An analytic hierarchy process of assessing and ranking experts is offered, which is based on paired comparison matrices and scores, quality parameters are taken into account as well. Calculation and assessment of experts is given as an example.

A Human Capital Model of Educational Test Scores

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

McIntosh, James; D. Munk, Martin

Latent class Poisson count models are used to analyze a sample of Danish test score results from a cohort of individuals born in 1954-55 and tested in 1968. The procedure takes account of unobservable effects as well as excessive zeros in the data. The bulk of unobservable effects are uncorrelated...... with observable parental attributes and, thus, are environmental rather than genetic in origin. We show that the test scores measure manifest or measured ability as it has evolved over the life of the respondent and is, thus, more a product of the human capital formation process than some latent or fundamental...... measure of pure cognitive ability. We find that variables which are not closely associated with traditional notions of intelligence explain a significant proportion of the variation in test scores. This adds to the complexity of interpreting test scores and suggests that school culture, attitudes...

A demonstration of expert systems applications in transportation engineering : volume I, transportation engineers and expert systems.

Science.gov (United States)

1987-01-01

Expert systems, a branch of artificial-intelligence studies, is introduced with a view to its relevance in transportation engineering. Knowledge engineering, the process of building expert systems or transferring knowledge from human experts to compu...

Construct Validity of Fresh Frozen Human Cadaver as a Training Model in Minimal Access Surgery

Science.gov (United States)

Macafee, David; Pranesh, Nagarajan; Horgan, Alan F.

2012-01-01

Background: The construct validity of fresh human cadaver as a training tool has not been established previously. The aims of this study were to investigate the construct validity of fresh frozen human cadaver as a method of training in minimal access surgery and determine if novices can be rapidly trained using this model to a safe level of performance. Methods: Junior surgical trainees, novices (cadavers. Expert laparoscopists (>100 laparoscopic procedures) performed 3 repetitions of identical tasks. Performances were scored using a validated, objective Global Operative Assessment of Laparoscopic Skills scale. Scores for 3 consecutive repetitions were compared between experts and novices to determine construct validity. Furthermore, to determine if the novices reached a safe level, a trimmed mean of the experts score was used to define a benchmark. Mann-Whitney U test was used for construct validity analysis and 1-sample t test to compare performances of the novice group with the benchmark safe score. Results: Ten novices and 2 experts were recruited. Four out of 5 tasks (nondominant to dominant hand transfer; simulated appendicectomy; intracorporeal and extracorporeal knot tying) showed construct validity. Novices’ scores became comparable to benchmark scores between the eighth and tenth repetition. Conclusion: Minimal access surgical training using fresh frozen human cadavers appears to have construct validity. The laparoscopic skills of novices can be accelerated through to a safe level within 8 to 10 repetitions. PMID:23318058

Development and validation of a composite scoring system for robot-assisted surgical training--the Robotic Skills Assessment Score.

Science.gov (United States)

Chowriappa, Ashirwad J; Shi, Yi; Raza, Syed Johar; Ahmed, Kamran; Stegemann, Andrew; Wilding, Gregory; Kaouk, Jihad; Peabody, James O; Menon, Mani; Hassett, James M; Kesavadas, Thenkurussi; Guru, Khurshid A

2013-12-01

A standardized scoring system does not exist in virtual reality-based assessment metrics to describe safe and crucial surgical skills in robot-assisted surgery. This study aims to develop an assessment score along with its construct validation. All subjects performed key tasks on previously validated Fundamental Skills of Robotic Surgery curriculum, which were recorded, and metrics were stored. After an expert consensus for the purpose of content validation (Delphi), critical safety determining procedural steps were identified from the Fundamental Skills of Robotic Surgery curriculum and a hierarchical task decomposition of multiple parameters using a variety of metrics was used to develop Robotic Skills Assessment Score (RSA-Score). Robotic Skills Assessment mainly focuses on safety in operative field, critical error, economy, bimanual dexterity, and time. Following, the RSA-Score was further evaluated for construct validation and feasibility. Spearman correlation tests performed between tasks using the RSA-Scores indicate no cross correlation. Wilcoxon rank sum tests were performed between the two groups. The proposed RSA-Score was evaluated on non-robotic surgeons (n = 15) and on expert-robotic surgeons (n = 12). The expert group demonstrated significantly better performance on all four tasks in comparison to the novice group. Validation of the RSA-Score in this study was carried out on the Robotic Surgical Simulator. The RSA-Score is a valid scoring system that could be incorporated in any virtual reality-based surgical simulator to achieve standardized assessment of fundamental surgical tents during robot-assisted surgery. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Procedures for using expert judgment to estimate human-error probabilities in nuclear power plant operations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Seaver, D.A.; Stillwell, W.G.

1983-03-01

This report describes and evaluates several procedures for using expert judgment to estimate human-error probabilities (HEPs) in nuclear power plant operations. These HEPs are currently needed for several purposes, particularly for probabilistic risk assessments. Data do not exist for estimating these HEPs, so expert judgment can provide these estimates in a timely manner. Five judgmental procedures are described here: paired comparisons, ranking and rating, direct numerical estimation, indirect numerical estimation and multiattribute utility measurement. These procedures are evaluated in terms of several criteria: quality of judgments, difficulty of data collection, empirical support, acceptability, theoretical justification, and data processing. Situational constraints such as the number of experts available, the number of HEPs to be estimated, the time available, the location of the experts, and the resources available are discussed in regard to their implications for selecting a procedure for use

Construct validity and expert benchmarking of the haptic virtual reality dental simulator.

Science.gov (United States)

Suebnukarn, Siriwan; Chaisombat, Monthalee; Kongpunwijit, Thanapohn; Rhienmora, Phattanapon

2014-10-01

The aim of this study was to demonstrate construct validation of the haptic virtual reality (VR) dental simulator and to define expert benchmarking criteria for skills assessment. Thirty-four self-selected participants (fourteen novices, fourteen intermediates, and six experts in endodontics) at one dental school performed ten repetitions of three mode tasks of endodontic cavity preparation: easy (mandibular premolar with one canal), medium (maxillary premolar with two canals), and hard (mandibular molar with three canals). The virtual instrument's path length was registered by the simulator. The outcomes were assessed by an expert. The error scores in easy and medium modes accurately distinguished the experts from novices and intermediates at the onset of training, when there was a significant difference between groups (ANOVA, p<0.05). The trend was consistent until trial 5. From trial 6 on, the three groups achieved similar scores. No significant difference was found between groups at the end of training. Error score analysis was not able to distinguish any group at the hard level of training. Instrument path length showed a difference in performance according to groups at the onset of training (ANOVA, p<0.05). This study established construct validity for the haptic VR dental simulator by demonstrating its discriminant capabilities between that of experts and non-experts. The experts' error scores and path length were used to define benchmarking criteria for optimal performance.

Transforming Biology Assessment with Machine Learning: Automated Scoring of Written Evolutionary Explanations

Science.gov (United States)

Nehm, Ross H.; Ha, Minsu; Mayfield, Elijah

2012-02-01

This study explored the use of machine learning to automatically evaluate the accuracy of students' written explanations of evolutionary change. Performance of the Summarization Integrated Development Environment (SIDE) program was compared to human expert scoring using a corpus of 2,260 evolutionary explanations written by 565 undergraduate students in response to two different evolution instruments (the EGALT-F and EGALT-P) that contained prompts that differed in various surface features (such as species and traits). We tested human-SIDE scoring correspondence under a series of different training and testing conditions, using Kappa inter-rater agreement values of greater than 0.80 as a performance benchmark. In addition, we examined the effects of response length on scoring success; that is, whether SIDE scoring models functioned with comparable success on short and long responses. We found that SIDE performance was most effective when scoring models were built and tested at the individual item level and that performance degraded when suites of items or entire instruments were used to build and test scoring models. Overall, SIDE was found to be a powerful and cost-effective tool for assessing student knowledge and performance in a complex science domain.

A Computer Clone of Human Expert for Mobility Management Scheme (E-MMS): Step toward Green Transportation

Science.gov (United States)

Resdiansyah; O. K Rahmat, R. A.; Ismail, A.

2018-03-01

Green transportation refers to a sustainable transport that gives the least impact in terms of social and environmental but at the same time is able to supply energy sources globally that includes non-motorized transport strategies deployment to promote healthy lifestyles, also known as Mobility Management Scheme (MMS). As construction of road infrastructure cannot help solve the problem of congestion, past research has shown that MMS is an effective measure to mitigate congestion and to achieve green transportation. MMS consists of different strategies and policies that subdivided into categories according to how they are able to influence travel behaviour. Appropriate selection of mobility strategies will ensure its effectiveness in mitigating congestion problems. Nevertheless, determining appropriate strategies requires human expert and depends on a number of success factors. This research has successfully developed a computer clone system based on human expert, called E-MMS. The process of knowledge acquisition for MMS strategies and the next following process to selection of strategy has been encode in a knowledge-based system using a shell expert system. The newly developed computer cloning system was successfully verified, validated and evaluated (VV&E) by comparing the result output with the real transportation expert recommendation in which the findings suggested Introduction

MERS-CoV at the Animal-Human interface: inputs on exposure pathways from an Expert-Opinion elicitation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anna Funk

2016-10-01

Full Text Available Nearly four years after the first report of the emergence of Middle-East respiratory syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV and nearly 1800 human cases later, the ecology of MERS-CoV, its epidemiology, and risk factors of MERS-CoV transmission between camels are poorly understood. Knowledge about the pathways and mechanisms of transmission from animals to humans is limited; as of yet, transmission risks have not been quantified. Moreover the divergent sanitary situations and exposures to animals among populations in the Arabian Peninsula, where human primary cases appear to dominate, vs. other regions in the Middle East and Africa, with no reported human clinical cases and where the virus has been detected only in dromedaries, represents huge scientific and health challenges. Here, we have used expert opinion elicitation in order to obtain ideas on relative importance of MERS-CoV risk factors and estimates of transmission risks from various types of contact between humans and dromedaries. Fourteen (14 experts with diverse and extensive experience in MERS-CoV relevant fields were enrolled and completed an online questionnaire that examined pathways based on several scenarios e.g. camels-camels, camels-human, bats/other species to camels/humans and the role of diverse biological substances (milk, urine etc. and potential fomites.Experts believed that dromedary camels play the largest role in MERS-CoV infection of other dromedaries; however, they also indicated a significant influence of the season (i.e. calving or weaning periods on transmission risk. All experts thought that MERS-CoV infected dromedaries and asymptomatic humans play the most important role in infection of humans, with bats and other species presenting a possible, but yet undefined, risk. Direct and indirect contact of humans with dromedary camels were identified as the most risky types of contact, when compared to consumption of various camel products, with estimated 'most

Contextual Factors for Finding Similar Experts

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hofmann, Katja; Balog, Krisztian; Bogers, Toine

2010-01-01

-seeking models, are rarely taken into account. In this article, we extend content-based expert-finding approaches with contextual factors that have been found to influence human expert finding. We focus on a task of science communicators in a knowledge-intensive environment, the task of finding similar experts......, given an example expert. Our approach combines expertise-seeking and retrieval research. First, we conduct a user study to identify contextual factors that may play a role in the studied task and environment. Then, we design expert retrieval models to capture these factors. We combine these with content......-based retrieval models and evaluate them in a retrieval experiment. Our main finding is that while content-based features are the most important, human participants also take contextual factors into account, such as media experience and organizational structure. We develop two principled ways of modeling...

Comparing the treatment of uncertainty in Bayesian networks and fuzzy expert systems used for a human reliability analysis application

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baraldi, Piero; Podofillini, Luca; Mkrtchyan, Lusine; Zio, Enrico; Dang, Vinh N.

2015-01-01

The use of expert systems can be helpful to improve the transparency and repeatability of assessments in areas of risk analysis with limited data available. In this field, human reliability analysis (HRA) is no exception, and, in particular, dependence analysis is an HRA task strongly based on analyst judgement. The analysis of dependence among Human Failure Events refers to the assessment of the effect of an earlier human failure on the probability of the subsequent ones. This paper analyses and compares two expert systems, based on Bayesian Belief Networks and Fuzzy Logic (a Fuzzy Expert System, FES), respectively. The comparison shows that a BBN approach should be preferred in all the cases characterized by quantifiable uncertainty in the input (i.e. when probability distributions can be assigned to describe the input parameters uncertainty), since it provides a satisfactory representation of the uncertainty and its output is directly interpretable for use within PSA. On the other hand, in cases characterized by very limited knowledge, an analyst may feel constrained by the probabilistic framework, which requires assigning probability distributions for describing uncertainty. In these cases, the FES seems to lead to a more transparent representation of the input and output uncertainty. - Highlights: • We analyse treatment of uncertainty in two expert systems. • We compare a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) and a Fuzzy Expert System (FES). • We focus on the input assessment, inference engines and output assessment. • We focus on an application problem of interest for human reliability analysis. • We emphasize the application rather than math to reach non-BBN or FES specialists

An expert system for uranium exploration

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chhipa, V.K.; Sengupta, M.

1989-01-01

Artificial intelligence is an emerging technology in the field of computer application. Expert systems have been developed to imitate human intelligence and reasoning process. Expert systems have much scope of application in the decision making process in mineral exploration as such decisions are highly subjective and expert opinions are very helpful. This paper presents a small expert system to analyze the reasoning process in exploring for uranium deposits in sandstone

Expert systems and nuclear safety

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Beltracchi, L.

1990-01-01

The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the Electric Power Research Institute have initiated a broad-based exploration of means to evaluate the potential applications of expert systems in the nuclear industry. This exploratory effort will assess the use of expert systems to augment the diagnostic and decision-making capabilities of personnel with the goal of enhancing productivity, reliability, and performance. The initial research effort is the development and documentation of guidelines for verifying and validating (V and V) expert systems. An initial application of expert systems in the nuclear industry is to aid operations and maintenance personnel in decision-making tasks. The scope of the decision aiding covers all types of cognitive behavior consisting of skill, rule, and knowledge-based behavior. For example, procedure trackers were designed and tested to support rule-based behavior. Further, these systems automate many of the tedious, error-prone human monitoring tasks, thereby reducing the potential for human error. The paper version of the procedure contains the knowledge base and the rules and thus serves as the basis of the design verification of the procedure tracker. Person-in-the-loop tests serve as the basis for the validation of a procedure tracker. When conducting validation tests, it is important to ascertain that the human retains the locus of control in the use of the expert system

ALICE Expert System

CERN Document Server

Ionita, C

2014-01-01

The ALICE experiment at CERN employs a number of human operators (shifters), who have to make sure that the experiment is always in a state compatible with taking Physics data. Given the complexity of the system and the myriad of errors that can arise, this is not always a trivial task. The aim of this paper is to describe an expert system that is capable of assisting human shifters in the ALICE control room. The system diagnoses potential issues and attempts to make smart recommendations for troubleshooting. At its core, a Prolog engine infers whether a Physics or a technical run can be started based on the current state of the underlying sub-systems. A separate C++ component queries certain SMI objects and stores their state as facts in a Prolog knowledge base. By mining the data stored in dierent system logs, the expert system can also diagnose errors arising during a run. Currently the system is used by the on-call experts for faster response times, but we expect it to be adopted as a standard tool by reg...

Auditory memory function in expert chess players.

Science.gov (United States)

Fattahi, Fariba; Geshani, Ahmad; Jafari, Zahra; Jalaie, Shohreh; Salman Mahini, Mona

2015-01-01

Chess is a game that involves many aspects of high level cognition such as memory, attention, focus and problem solving. Long term practice of chess can improve cognition performances and behavioral skills. Auditory memory, as a kind of memory, can be influenced by strengthening processes following long term chess playing like other behavioral skills because of common processing pathways in the brain. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the auditory memory function of expert chess players using the Persian version of dichotic auditory-verbal memory test. The Persian version of dichotic auditory-verbal memory test was performed for 30 expert chess players aged 20-35 years and 30 non chess players who were matched by different conditions; the participants in both groups were randomly selected. The performance of the two groups was compared by independent samples t-test using SPSS version 21. The mean score of dichotic auditory-verbal memory test between the two groups, expert chess players and non-chess players, revealed a significant difference (p≤ 0.001). The difference between the ears scores for expert chess players (p= 0.023) and non-chess players (p= 0.013) was significant. Gender had no effect on the test results. Auditory memory function in expert chess players was significantly better compared to non-chess players. It seems that increased auditory memory function is related to strengthening cognitive performances due to playing chess for a long time.

AutoIHC-scoring: a machine learning framework for automated Allred scoring of molecular expression in ER- and PR-stained breast cancer tissue.

Science.gov (United States)

Tewary, S; Arun, I; Ahmed, R; Chatterjee, S; Chakraborty, C

2017-11-01

In prognostic evaluation of breast cancer Immunohistochemical (IHC) markers namely, oestrogen receptor (ER) and progesterone receptor (PR) are widely used. The expert pathologist investigates qualitatively the stained tissue slide under microscope to provide the Allred score; which is clinically used for therapeutic decision making. Such qualitative judgment is time-consuming, tedious and more often suffers from interobserver variability. As a result, it leads to imprecise IHC score for ER and PR. To overcome this, there is an urgent need of developing a reliable and efficient IHC quantifier for high throughput decision making. In view of this, our study aims at developing an automated IHC profiler for quantitative assessment of ER and PR molecular expression from stained tissue images. We propose here to use CMYK colour space for positively and negatively stained cell extraction for proportion score. Also colour features are used for quantitative assessment of intensity scoring among the positively stained cells. Five different machine learning models namely artificial neural network, Naïve Bayes, K-nearest neighbours, decision tree and random forest are considered for learning the colour features using average red, green and blue pixel values of positively stained cell patches. Fifty cases of ER- and PR-stained tissues have been evaluated for validation with the expert pathologist's score. All five models perform adequately where random forest shows the best correlation with the expert's score (Pearson's correlation coefficient = 0.9192). In the proposed approach the average variation of diaminobenzidine (DAB) to nuclear area from the expert's score is found to be 7.58%, as compared to 27.83% for state-of-the-art ImmunoRatio software. © 2017 The Authors Journal of Microscopy © 2017 Royal Microscopical Society.

An expert system for turbogenerator diagnostics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bessenyei, Z.; Tomcsanyi, T.; Toth, Z.; Laczay, I.

1992-01-01

In 1990, an expert system for turbo-generator diagnostics (EST-D) was installed at the 3rd and 4th units of the Paks NPP (Hungary). The expert system is strongly integrated to the ARGUS II vibration monitoring and diagnostics system. The system works on IBM PC AT. The VEIKI's and the NPP's human experts were interviewed to fill up the knowledgebase. The system is able to identify 13 different faults of the parts of a turbogenerator. The knowledgebase consists of ca 200 rules. The rules were built in and the system was verified and validated using a model of the turbines and using the experiences gathered with ARGUS II during the last 3 years. The maintenance personnel is authorized to modify and/or extend the knowledgebase. The input data for evaluation come from measured vibration patterns produced by the ARGUS II system, database of events, and maintenance data input by the maintenance personnel. The expert system is based on the modified GENESYS 2.1 shell (developed by SZAMALK, Hungary). Some limitations from PC application were eliminated, and a new, independent explanation module and man-machine interface were developed. Using this man-machine interface, one of the basic goals of the expert system developments was achieved: the human experts contribution is not necessary for diagnoses. The operator of the diagnostics system is able to produce the reports of diagnoses. Of course the interface allows the human experts to see the diagnoses through. It should be mentioned, at the beginning of 1991, we installed a similar expert system at the 1st 1000 MW WWER type unit of the Kalinin NPP (Soviet Union). In this paper, the operation of the EST-D, the man-machine interface and the operational experiences of the first 4 months work are explained. 2 refs., 14 figs

A Study on Satellite Diagnostic Expert Systems Using Case-Based Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Young-Tack Park

1997-06-01

Full Text Available Many research works are on going to monitor and diagnose diverse malfunctions of satellite systems as the complexity and number of satellites increase. Currently, many works on monitoring and diagnosis are carried out by human experts but there are needs to automate much of the routine works of them. Hence, it is necessary to study on using expert systems which can assist human experts routine work by doing automatically, thereby allow human experts devote their expertise more critical and important areas of monitoring and diagnosis. In this paper, we are employing artificial intelligence techniques to model human experts' knowledge and inference the constructed knowledge. Especially, case-based approaches are used to construct a knowledge base to model human expert capabilities which use previous typical exemplars. We have designed and implemented a prototype case-based system for diagnosing satellite malfunctions using cases. Our system remembers typical failure cases and diagnoses a current malfunction by indexing the case base. Diverse methods are used to build a more user friendly interface which allows human experts can build a knowledge base in as easy way.

Reflection group on 'Expert Culture'

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eggermont, G.

2000-01-01

As part of SCK-CEN's social sciences and humanities programme, a reflection group on 'Expert Culture' was established. The objectives of the reflection group are: (1) to clarify the role of SCK-CEN experts; (2) to clarify the new role of expertise in the evolving context of risk society; (3) to confront external views and internal SCK-CEN experiences on expert culture; (4) to improve trust building of experts and credibility of SCK-CEN as a nuclear actor in society; (5) to develop a draft for a deontological code; (6) to integrate the approach in training on assertivity and communication; (7) to create an output for a topical day on the subject of expert culture. The programme, achievements and perspectives of the refection group are summarised

A statistical modeling approach to build expert credit risk rating systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Waagepetersen, Rasmus

2010-01-01

This paper presents an efficient method for extracting expert knowledge when building a credit risk rating system. Experts are asked to rate a sample of counterparty cases according to creditworthiness. Next, a statistical model is used to capture the relation between the characteristics...... of a counterparty and the expert rating. For any counterparty the model can identify the rating, which would be agreed upon by the majority of experts. Furthermore, the model can quantify the concurrence among experts. The approach is illustrated by a case study regarding the construction of an application score...

The impact of human-technology cooperation and distributed cognition in forensic science: biasing effects of AFIS contextual information on human experts*

OpenAIRE

Dror, Itiel E.; Wertheim, Kasey; Fraser-Mackenzie, Peter; Walajtys, Jeff

2012-01-01

Experts play a critical role in forensic decision making, even when cognition is offloaded and distributed between human and machine. In this paper, we investigated the impact of using Automated Fingerprint Identification Systems (AFIS) on human decision makers. We provided 3680 AFIS lists (a total of 55,200 comparisons) to 23 latent fingerprint examiners as part of their normal casework. We manipulated the position of the matching print in the AFIS list. The data showed that latent fingerpri...

ALICE Expert System

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ionita, C; Carena, F

2014-01-01

The ALICE experiment at CERN employs a number of human operators (shifters), who have to make sure that the experiment is always in a state compatible with taking Physics data. Given the complexity of the system and the myriad of errors that can arise, this is not always a trivial task. The aim of this paper is to describe an expert system that is capable of assisting human shifters in the ALICE control room. The system diagnoses potential issues and attempts to make smart recommendations for troubleshooting. At its core, a Prolog engine infers whether a Physics or a technical run can be started based on the current state of the underlying sub-systems. A separate C++ component queries certain SMI objects and stores their state as facts in a Prolog knowledge base. By mining the data stored in different system logs, the expert system can also diagnose errors arising during a run. Currently the system is used by the on-call experts for faster response times, but we expect it to be adopted as a standard tool by regular shifters during the next data taking period

Crowdsourcing: a valid alternative to expert evaluation of robotic surgery skills.

Science.gov (United States)

Polin, Michael R; Siddiqui, Nazema Y; Comstock, Bryan A; Hesham, Helai; Brown, Casey; Lendvay, Thomas S; Martino, Martin A

2016-11-01

Robotic-assisted gynecologic surgery is common, but requires unique training. A validated assessment tool for evaluating trainees' robotic surgery skills is Robotic-Objective Structured Assessments of Technical Skills. We sought to assess whether crowdsourcing can be used as an alternative to expert surgical evaluators in scoring Robotic-Objective Structured Assessments of Technical Skills. The Robotic Training Network produced the Robotic-Objective Structured Assessments of Technical Skills, which evaluate trainees across 5 dry lab robotic surgical drills. Robotic-Objective Structured Assessments of Technical Skills were previously validated in a study of 105 participants, where dry lab surgical drills were recorded, de-identified, and scored by 3 expert surgeons using the Robotic-Objective Structured Assessments of Technical Skills checklist. Our methods-comparison study uses these previously obtained recordings and expert surgeon scores. Mean scores per participant from each drill were separated into quartiles. Crowdworkers were trained and calibrated on Robotic-Objective Structured Assessments of Technical Skills scoring using a representative recording of a skilled and novice surgeon. Following this, 3 recordings from each scoring quartile for each drill were randomly selected. Crowdworkers evaluated the randomly selected recordings using Robotic-Objective Structured Assessments of Technical Skills. Linear mixed effects models were used to derive mean crowdsourced ratings for each drill. Pearson correlation coefficients were calculated to assess the correlation between crowdsourced and expert surgeons' ratings. In all, 448 crowdworkers reviewed videos from 60 dry lab drills, and completed a total of 2517 Robotic-Objective Structured Assessments of Technical Skills assessments within 16 hours. Crowdsourced Robotic-Objective Structured Assessments of Technical Skills ratings were highly correlated with expert surgeon ratings across each of the 5 dry lab drills

Definition of a COPD self-management intervention: International Expert Group consensus.

Science.gov (United States)

Effing, Tanja W; Vercoulen, Jan H; Bourbeau, Jean; Trappenburg, Jaap; Lenferink, Anke; Cafarella, Paul; Coultas, David; Meek, Paula; van der Valk, Paul; Bischoff, Erik W M A; Bucknall, Christine; Dewan, Naresh A; Early, Frances; Fan, Vincent; Frith, Peter; Janssen, Daisy J A; Mitchell, Katy; Morgan, Mike; Nici, Linda; Patel, Irem; Walters, Haydn; Rice, Kathryn L; Singh, Sally; Zuwallack, Richard; Benzo, Roberto; Goldstein, Roger; Partridge, Martyn R; van der Palen, Job

2016-07-01

There is an urgent need for consensus on what defines a chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) self-management intervention. We aimed to obtain consensus regarding the conceptual definition of a COPD self-management intervention by engaging an international panel of COPD self-management experts using Delphi technique features and an additional group meeting.In each consensus round the experts were asked to provide feedback on the proposed definition and to score their level of agreement (1=totally disagree; 5=totally agree). The information provided was used to modify the definition for the next consensus round. Thematic analysis was used for free text responses and descriptive statistics were used for agreement scores.In total, 28 experts participated. The consensus round response rate varied randomly over the five rounds (ranging from 48% (n=13) to 85% (n=23)), and mean definition agreement scores increased from 3.8 (round 1) to 4.8 (round 5) with an increasing percentage of experts allocating the highest score of 5 (round 1: 14% (n=3); round 5: 83% (n=19)).In this study we reached consensus regarding a conceptual definition of what should be a COPD self-management intervention, clarifying the requisites for such an intervention. Operationalisation of this conceptual definition in the near future will be an essential next step. The content of this work is not subject to copyright. Design and branding are copyright ©ERS 2016.

Expert Systems Research.

Science.gov (United States)

Duda, Richard O.; Shortliffe, Edward H.

1983-01-01

Discusses a class of artificial intelligence computer programs (often called "expert systems" because they address problems normally thought to require human specialists for their solution) intended to serve as consultants for decision making. Also discusses accomplishments (including information systematization in medical diagnosis and…

Paradigms and building tools for real-time expert systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Behrens, U.; Flasinski, M.; Hagge, L.; Ohrenberg, K.

1994-01-01

An expert system is a software which can simulate the problem solving behavior of a human expert. The rule-based paradigm is chosen to describe the different aspects involved in expert system development. Differences between expert systems and common procedural or object-oriented programs are investigated. Expert system shells are introduced as a building tool for expert systems, together with some guidelines on the evaluation of such shells. A discussion of special needs for real-time expert system development concludes the paper

Interobserver Reliability of the Total Body Score System for Quantifying Human Decomposition.

Science.gov (United States)

Dabbs, Gretchen R; Connor, Melissa; Bytheway, Joan A

2016-03-01

Several authors have tested the accuracy of the Total Body Score (TBS) method for quantifying decomposition, but none have examined the reliability of the method as a scoring system by testing interobserver error rates. Sixteen participants used the TBS system to score 59 observation packets including photographs and written descriptions of 13 human cadavers in different stages of decomposition (postmortem interval: 2-186 days). Data analysis used a two-way random model intraclass correlation in SPSS (v. 17.0). The TBS method showed "almost perfect" agreement between observers, with average absolute correlation coefficients of 0.990 and average consistency correlation coefficients of 0.991. While the TBS method may have sources of error, scoring reliability is not one of them. Individual component scores were examined, and the influences of education and experience levels were investigated. Overall, the trunk component scores were the least concordant. Suggestions are made to improve the reliability of the TBS method. © 2016 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

Automated Quantification of the Landing Error Scoring System With a Markerless Motion-Capture System.

Science.gov (United States)

Mauntel, Timothy C; Padua, Darin A; Stanley, Laura E; Frank, Barnett S; DiStefano, Lindsay J; Peck, Karen Y; Cameron, Kenneth L; Marshall, Stephen W

2017-11-01

  The Landing Error Scoring System (LESS) can be used to identify individuals with an elevated risk of lower extremity injury. The limitation of the LESS is that raters identify movement errors from video replay, which is time-consuming and, therefore, may limit its use by clinicians. A markerless motion-capture system may be capable of automating LESS scoring, thereby removing this obstacle.   To determine the reliability of an automated markerless motion-capture system for scoring the LESS.   Cross-sectional study.   United States Military Academy.   A total of 57 healthy, physically active individuals (47 men, 10 women; age = 18.6 ± 0.6 years, height = 174.5 ± 6.7 cm, mass = 75.9 ± 9.2 kg).   Participants completed 3 jump-landing trials that were recorded by standard video cameras and a depth camera. Their movement quality was evaluated by expert LESS raters (standard video recording) using the LESS rubric and by software that automates LESS scoring (depth-camera data). We recorded an error for a LESS item if it was present on at least 2 of 3 jump-landing trials. We calculated κ statistics, prevalence- and bias-adjusted κ (PABAK) statistics, and percentage agreement for each LESS item. Interrater reliability was evaluated between the 2 expert rater scores and between a consensus expert score and the markerless motion-capture system score.   We observed reliability between the 2 expert LESS raters (average κ = 0.45 ± 0.35, average PABAK = 0.67 ± 0.34; percentage agreement = 0.83 ± 0.17). The markerless motion-capture system had similar reliability with consensus expert scores (average κ = 0.48 ± 0.40, average PABAK = 0.71 ± 0.27; percentage agreement = 0.85 ± 0.14). However, reliability was poor for 5 LESS items in both LESS score comparisons.   A markerless motion-capture system had the same level of reliability as expert LESS raters, suggesting that an automated system can accurately assess movement. Therefore, clinicians can use

Assessment of the severity of asthma by an expert system. Description and evaluation.

Science.gov (United States)

Redier, H; Daures, J P; Michel, C; Proudhon, H; Vervloet, D; Charpin, D; Marsac, J; Dusser, D; Brambilla, C; Wallaert, B

1995-02-01

Asthmaexpert, an expert system (ES), was produced at the special request of several clinicians in order to better understand the medical decisions made clinical experts in managing an asthmatic patient. We describe and evaluate this knowledge base, focusing mainly on assessment of the severity of asthma. After compiling data from a patient, Asthmaexpert assesses the severity of the disease and identifies the trigger factors involved, suggests any further investigations that may be required, and offers a treatment strategy. Implemented with Nexpert and Hypercard, it runs on a MacIntosh personal computer. The validation stage involved eight clinical experts who provided 20 case report forms (CRF) with their conclusions about management of asthma. The CRF were then programmed into the ES, which provided its own conclusions about the same subjects. Afterward, all the experts evaluated the conclusions given by ES or by their colleagues in a double-blind manner. One hundred twenty-seven CRF were available. The reliability of the experts' opinions was good, with a substantial consensus between them when assessing severity scores (kappa = 0.27 to 0.54). There was no difference in concordance of opinions on severity scores either between the experts who designed the system and ES or between the other experts and ES (weighted kappa = 0.72 and 0.69, respectively). Experts judged that the severity scores given by ES were as good as those proposed by their colleagues, and that the overall conclusions given by ES were as good as or better than those given by their colleagues. The conclusions drawn by ES were given a good rating.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Human Error Analysis Project (HEAP) - The Fourth Pilot Study: Scoring and Analysis of Raw Data Types

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hollnagel, Erik; Braarud; Per Oeyvind; Droeivoldsmo, Asgeir; Follesoe; Knut; Helgar, Stein; Kaarstad, Magnhild

1996-01-01

Pilot study No. 4 rounded off the series of pilot studies by looking at the important issue of the quality of the various data sources. The preceding experiments had clearly shown that that it was necessary to use both concurrent and interrupted verbal protocols, and also that information about eye movements was very valuable. The effort and resources needed to analyse a combination of the different data sources is, however, significant, and it was therefore important to find out whether one or more of the data sources could replace another. In order to determine this issue, pilot study No. 4 looked specifically at the quality of information provided by different data sources. The main hypotheses were that information about operators' diagnosis and decision making would be provided by verbal protocols, expert commentators, and auto-confrontation protocols, that the data sources would be valid, and that they would complement each other. The study used three main data sources: (1) concurrent verbal protocols, which were the operators' verbalisations during the experiment; (2) expert commentator reports, which were descriptions by process experts of the operators' performance; and (3) auto-confrontation, which were the operators' comments on their performance based on a replay of the performance recording minus the concurrent verbal protocol. Additional data sources were eye movement recordings, process data, alarms, etc. The three main data sources were treated as independent variables and applied according to an experimental design that facilitated the test of the main hypotheses. The pilot study produced altogether 59 verbal protocols, some of which were in Finnish. After a translation into English, each protocol was analysed and scored according to a specific scheme. The scoring was designed to facilitate the evaluation of the experimental hypotheses. Due to the considerable work involved, the analysis process has only been partly completed, and no firm results

Expert finding by the Dempster‐Shafer theory for evidence combination

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Torkzadeh mahani, N.; Dehghani, M.; Mirian, M.S.; Shakery, A.; Taheri, K.

The expertise of human experts can be formally extracted from their written documents, research projects, and everyday activities. The process whereby experts are recognized according to their activities is called expert finding. In this paper, we propose an approach to identify the experts in a

Prognostic validation of a 17-segment score derived from a 20-segment score for myocardial perfusion SPECT interpretation.

Science.gov (United States)

Berman, Daniel S; Abidov, Aiden; Kang, Xingping; Hayes, Sean W; Friedman, John D; Sciammarella, Maria G; Cohen, Ishac; Gerlach, James; Waechter, Parker B; Germano, Guido; Hachamovitch, Rory

2004-01-01

Recently, a 17-segment model of the left ventricle has been recommended as an optimally weighted approach for interpreting myocardial perfusion single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT). Methods to convert databases from previous 20- to new 17-segment data and criteria for abnormality for the 17-segment scores are needed. Initially, for derivation of the conversion algorithm, 65 patients were studied (algorithm population) (pilot group, n = 28; validation group, n = 37). Three conversion algorithms were derived: algorithm 1, which used mid, distal, and apical scores; algorithm 2, which used distal and apical scores alone; and algorithm 3, which used maximal scores of the distal septal, lateral, and apical segments in the 20-segment model for 3 corresponding segments of the 17-segment model. The prognosis population comprised 16,020 consecutive patients (mean age, 65 +/- 12 years; 41% women) who had exercise or vasodilator stress technetium 99m sestamibi myocardial perfusion SPECT and were followed up for 2.1 +/- 0.8 years. In this population, 17-segment scores were derived from 20-segment scores by use of algorithm 2, which demonstrated the best agreement with expert 17-segment reading in the algorithm population. The prognostic value of the 20- and 17-segment scores was compared by converting the respective summed scores into percent myocardium abnormal. Conversion algorithm 2 was found to be highly concordant with expert visual analysis by the 17-segment model (r = 0.982; kappa = 0.866) in the algorithm population. In the prognosis population, 456 cardiac deaths occurred during follow-up. When the conversion algorithm was applied, extent and severity of perfusion defects were nearly identical by 20- and derived 17-segment scores. The receiver operating characteristic curve areas by 20- and 17-segment perfusion scores were identical for predicting cardiac death (both 0.77 +/- 0.02, P = not significant). The optimal prognostic cutoff value for either 20

Expert Systems: A Challenge for the Reading Profession.

Science.gov (United States)

Balajthy, Ernest

The expert systems are designed to imitate the reasoning of a human expert in a content area field. Designed to be advisors, these software systems combine the content area knowledge and decision-making ability of an expert with the user's understanding and knowledge of particular circumstances. The reading diagnosis system, the RD2P System…

An inter-observer agreement study of autofluorescence endoscopy in Barrett's esophagus among expert and non-expert endoscopists.

Science.gov (United States)

Mannath, J; Subramanian, V; Telakis, E; Lau, K; Ramappa, V; Wireko, M; Kaye, P V; Ragunath, K

2013-02-01

Autofluorescence imaging (AFI), which is a "red flag" technique during Barrett's surveillance, is associated with significant false positive results. The aim of this study was to assess the inter-observer agreement (IOA) in identifying AFI-positive lesions and to assess the overall accuracy of AFI. Anonymized AFI and high resolution white light (HRE) images were prospectively collected. The AFI images were presented in random order, followed by corresponding AFI + HRE images. Three AFI experts and 3 AFI non-experts scored images after a training presentation. The IOA was calculated using kappa and accuracy was calculated with histology as gold standard. Seventy-four sets of images were prospectively collected from 63 patients (48 males, mean age 69 years). The IOA for number of AF positive lesions was fair when AFI images were presented. This improved to moderate with corresponding AFI and HRE images [experts 0.57 (0.44-0.70), non-experts 0.47 (0.35-0.62)]. The IOA for the site of AF lesion was moderate for experts and fair for non-experts using AF images, which improved to substantial for experts [κ = 0.62 (0.50-0.72)] but remained at fair for non-experts [κ = 0.28 (0.18-0.37)] with AFI + HRE. Among experts, the accuracy of identifying dysplasia was 0.76 (0.7-0.81) using AFI images and 0.85 (0.79-0.89) using AFI + HRE images. The accuracy was 0.69 (0.62-0.74) with AFI images alone and 0.75 (0.70-0.80) using AFI + HRE among non-experts. The IOA for AF positive lesions is fair to moderate using AFI images which improved with addition of HRE. The overall accuracy of identifying dysplasia was modest, and was better when AFI and HRE images were combined.

Tropospheric ozone. Formation, properties, effects. Expert opinion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Elstner, E.F.

1996-01-01

The formation and dispersion of tropospheric ozone are discussed only marginally in this expert opinion; the key interest is in the effects of ground level ozone on plants, animals, and humans. The expert opinion is based on an analysis of the available scientific publications. (orig./MG) [de

A condition metric for Eucalyptus woodland derived from expert evaluations.

Science.gov (United States)

Sinclair, Steve J; Bruce, Matthew J; Griffioen, Peter; Dodd, Amanda; White, Matthew D

2018-02-01

The evaluation of ecosystem quality is important for land-management and land-use planning. Evaluation is unavoidably subjective, and robust metrics must be based on consensus and the structured use of observations. We devised a transparent and repeatable process for building and testing ecosystem metrics based on expert data. We gathered quantitative evaluation data on the quality of hypothetical grassy woodland sites from experts. We used these data to train a model (an ensemble of 30 bagged regression trees) capable of predicting the perceived quality of similar hypothetical woodlands based on a set of 13 site variables as inputs (e.g., cover of shrubs, richness of native forbs). These variables can be measured at any site and the model implemented in a spreadsheet as a metric of woodland quality. We also investigated the number of experts required to produce an opinion data set sufficient for the construction of a metric. The model produced evaluations similar to those provided by experts, as shown by assessing the model's quality scores of expert-evaluated test sites not used to train the model. We applied the metric to 13 woodland conservation reserves and asked managers of these sites to independently evaluate their quality. To assess metric performance, we compared the model's evaluation of site quality with the managers' evaluations through multidimensional scaling. The metric performed relatively well, plotting close to the center of the space defined by the evaluators. Given the method provides data-driven consensus and repeatability, which no single human evaluator can provide, we suggest it is a valuable tool for evaluating ecosystem quality in real-world contexts. We believe our approach is applicable to any ecosystem. © 2017 State of Victoria.

Quality assessment of expert answers to lay questions about cystic fibrosis from various language zones in Europe: the ECORN-CF project

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

d'Alquen Daniela

2012-02-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The European Centres of Reference Network for Cystic Fibrosis (ECORN-CF established an Internet forum which provides the opportunity for CF patients and other interested people to ask experts questions about CF in their mother language. The objectives of this study were to: 1 develop a detailed quality assessment tool to analyze quality of expert answers, 2 evaluate the intra- and inter-rater agreement of this tool, and 3 explore changes in the quality of expert answers over the time frame of the project. Methods The quality assessment tool was developed by an expert panel. Five experts within the ECORN-CF project used the quality assessment tool to analyze the quality of 108 expert answers published on ECORN-CF from six language zones. 25 expert answers were scored at two time points, one year apart. Quality of answers was also assessed at an early and later period of the project. Individual rater scores and group mean scores were analyzed for each expert answer. Results A scoring system and training manual were developed analyzing two quality categories of answers: content and formal quality. For content quality, the grades based on group mean scores for all raters showed substantial agreement between two time points, however this was not the case for the grades based on individual rater scores. For formal quality the grades based on group mean scores showed only slight agreement between two time points and there was also poor agreement between time points for the individual grades. The inter-rater agreement for content quality was fair (mean kappa value 0.232 ± 0.036, p Conclusions The quality assessment tool described in this study was feasible and reliable when content quality was assessed by a group of raters. Within ECORN-CF, the tool will help ensure that CF patients all over Europe have equal possibility of access to high quality expert advice on their illness.

Quality assessment of expert answers to lay questions about cystic fibrosis from various language zones in Europe: the ECORN-CF project.

Science.gov (United States)

d'Alquen, Daniela; De Boeck, Kris; Bradley, Judy; Vávrová, Věra; Dembski, Birgit; Wagner, Thomas O F; Pfalz, Annette; Hebestreit, Helge

2012-02-06

The European Centres of Reference Network for Cystic Fibrosis (ECORN-CF) established an Internet forum which provides the opportunity for CF patients and other interested people to ask experts questions about CF in their mother language. The objectives of this study were to: 1) develop a detailed quality assessment tool to analyze quality of expert answers, 2) evaluate the intra- and inter-rater agreement of this tool, and 3) explore changes in the quality of expert answers over the time frame of the project. The quality assessment tool was developed by an expert panel. Five experts within the ECORN-CF project used the quality assessment tool to analyze the quality of 108 expert answers published on ECORN-CF from six language zones. 25 expert answers were scored at two time points, one year apart. Quality of answers was also assessed at an early and later period of the project. Individual rater scores and group mean scores were analyzed for each expert answer. A scoring system and training manual were developed analyzing two quality categories of answers: content and formal quality. For content quality, the grades based on group mean scores for all raters showed substantial agreement between two time points, however this was not the case for the grades based on individual rater scores. For formal quality the grades based on group mean scores showed only slight agreement between two time points and there was also poor agreement between time points for the individual grades. The inter-rater agreement for content quality was fair (mean kappa value 0.232 ± 0.036, p value 0.105 ± 0.024, p change over time. The quality assessment tool described in this study was feasible and reliable when content quality was assessed by a group of raters. Within ECORN-CF, the tool will help ensure that CF patients all over Europe have equal possibility of access to high quality expert advice on their illness. © 2012 d’Alquen et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

Report [of the] Expert Meeting on Intercultural Education, Section of Education for Peace and Human Rights (UNESCO Headquarters, Paris, March 20-22, 2006)

Science.gov (United States)

United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO), 2006

2006-01-01

The Section of Education for Peace and Human Rights of the Division for the Promotion of Quality Education held an expert meeting on Intercultural Education from March 20-22, 2006 at UNESCO Headquarters, bringing together international experts from Australia, Bolivia, Egypt, Finland, Hungary, Korea, Lebanon, Mexico, Nigeria, South Africa and the…

Monitoring the Performance of Human and Automated Scores for Spoken Responses

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Zhen; Zechner, Klaus; Sun, Yu

2018-01-01

As automated scoring systems for spoken responses are increasingly used in language assessments, testing organizations need to analyze their performance, as compared to human raters, across several dimensions, for example, on individual items or based on subgroups of test takers. In addition, there is a need in testing organizations to establish…

Expert Systems: What Is an Expert System?

Science.gov (United States)

Duval, Beverly K.; Main, Linda

1994-01-01

Describes expert systems and discusses their use in libraries. Highlights include parts of an expert system; expert system shells; an example of how to build an expert system; a bibliography of 34 sources of information on expert systems in libraries; and a list of 10 expert system shells used in libraries. (Contains five references.) (LRW)

Human vs. Computer Diagnosis of Students' Natural Selection Knowledge: Testing the Efficacy of Text Analytic Software

Science.gov (United States)

Nehm, Ross H.; Haertig, Hendrik

2012-01-01

Our study examines the efficacy of Computer Assisted Scoring (CAS) of open-response text relative to expert human scoring within the complex domain of evolutionary biology. Specifically, we explored whether CAS can diagnose the explanatory elements (or Key Concepts) that comprise undergraduate students' explanatory models of natural selection with…

WINE ADVISOR EXPERT SYSTEM USING DECISION RULES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dinuca Elena Claudia

2013-07-01

Full Text Available In this article I focus on developing an expert system for advising the choice of wine that best matches a specific occasion. An expert system is a computer application that performs a task that would be performed by a human expert. The implementation is done using Delphi programming language. I used to represent the knowledge bases a set of rules. The rules are of type IF THEN ELSE rules, decision rules based on different important wine features.

Setting and validating the pass/fail score for the NBDHE.

Science.gov (United States)

Tsai, Tsung-Hsun; Dixon, Barbara Leatherman

2013-04-01

This report describes the overall process used for setting the pass/fail score for the National Board Dental Hygiene Examination (NBDHE). The Objective Standard Setting (OSS) method was used for setting the pass/fail score for the NBDHE. The OSS method requires a panel of experts to determine the criterion items and proportion of these items that minimally competent candidates would answer correctly, the percentage of mastery and the confidence level of the error band. A panel of 11 experts was selected by the Joint Commission on National Dental Examinations (Joint Commission). Panel members represented geographic distribution across the U.S. and had the following characteristics: full-time dental hygiene practitioners with experience in areas of preventive, periodontal, geriatric and special needs care, and full-time dental hygiene educators with experience in areas of scientific basis for dental hygiene practice, provision of clinical dental hygiene services and community health/research principles. Utilizing the expert panel's judgments, the pass/fail score was set and then the score scale was established using the Rasch measurement model. Statistical and psychometric analysis shows the actual failure rate and the OSS failure rate are reasonably consistent (2.4% vs. 2.8%). The analysis also showed the lowest error of measurement, an index of the precision at the pass/fail score point and that the highest reliability (0.97) are achieved at the pass/fail score point. The pass/fail score is a valid guide for making decisions about candidates for dental hygiene licensure. This new standard was reviewed and approved by the Joint Commission and was implemented beginning in 2011.

Executive summary and conclusions from the European Hydration Institute Expert Conference on human hydration, health, and performance.

Science.gov (United States)

Benton, D; Braun, H; Cobo, J C; Edmonds, C; Elmadfa, I; El-Sharkawy, A; Feehally, J; Gellert, R; Holdsworth, J; Kapsokefalou, M; Kenney, W L; Leiper, J B; Macdonald, I A; Maffeis, C; Maughan, R J; Shirreffs, S M; Toth-Heyn, P; Watson, P

2015-09-01

On April 7-8, 2014, the European Hydration Institute hosted a small group of experts at Castle Combe Manor House, United Kingdom, to discuss a range of issues related to human hydration, health, and performance. The meeting included 18 recognized experts who brought a wealth of experience and knowledge to the topics under review. Eight selected topics were addressed, with the key issues being briefly presented before an in-depth discussion. Presented here is the executive summary and conclusions from this meeting. © The Author(s) 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Life Sciences Institute. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Interval Coded Scoring: a toolbox for interpretable scoring systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lieven Billiet

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Over the last decades, clinical decision support systems have been gaining importance. They help clinicians to make effective use of the overload of available information to obtain correct diagnoses and appropriate treatments. However, their power often comes at the cost of a black box model which cannot be interpreted easily. This interpretability is of paramount importance in a medical setting with regard to trust and (legal responsibility. In contrast, existing medical scoring systems are easy to understand and use, but they are often a simplified rule-of-thumb summary of previous medical experience rather than a well-founded system based on available data. Interval Coded Scoring (ICS connects these two approaches, exploiting the power of sparse optimization to derive scoring systems from training data. The presented toolbox interface makes this theory easily applicable to both small and large datasets. It contains two possible problem formulations based on linear programming or elastic net. Both allow to construct a model for a binary classification problem and establish risk profiles that can be used for future diagnosis. All of this requires only a few lines of code. ICS differs from standard machine learning through its model consisting of interpretable main effects and interactions. Furthermore, insertion of expert knowledge is possible because the training can be semi-automatic. This allows end users to make a trade-off between complexity and performance based on cross-validation results and expert knowledge. Additionally, the toolbox offers an accessible way to assess classification performance via accuracy and the ROC curve, whereas the calibration of the risk profile can be evaluated via a calibration curve. Finally, the colour-coded model visualization has particular appeal if one wants to apply ICS manually on new observations, as well as for validation by experts in the specific application domains. The validity and applicability

A brief history and technical review of the expert system research

Science.gov (United States)

Tan, Haocheng

2017-09-01

The expert system is a computer system that emulates the decision-making ability of a human expert, which aims to solve complex problems by reasoning knowledge. It is an important branch of artificial intelligence. In this paper, firstly, we briefly introduce the development and basic structure of the expert system. Then, from the perspective of the enabling technology, we classify the current expert systems and elaborate four expert systems: The Rule-Based Expert System, the Framework-Based Expert System, the Fuzzy Logic-Based Expert System and the Expert System Based on Neural Network.

Expert music performance: cognitive, neural, and developmental bases.

Science.gov (United States)

Brown, Rachel M; Zatorre, Robert J; Penhune, Virginia B

2015-01-01

In this chapter, we explore what happens in the brain of an expert musician during performance. Understanding expert music performance is interesting to cognitive neuroscientists not only because it tests the limits of human memory and movement, but also because studying expert musicianship can help us understand skilled human behavior in general. In this chapter, we outline important facets of our current understanding of the cognitive and neural basis for music performance, and developmental factors that may underlie musical ability. We address three main questions. (1) What is expert performance? (2) How do musicians achieve expert-level performance? (3) How does expert performance come about? We address the first question by describing musicians' ability to remember, plan, execute, and monitor their performances in order to perform music accurately and expressively. We address the second question by reviewing evidence for possible cognitive and neural mechanisms that may underlie or contribute to expert music performance, including the integration of sound and movement, feedforward and feedback motor control processes, expectancy, and imagery. We further discuss how neural circuits in auditory, motor, parietal, subcortical, and frontal cortex all contribute to different facets of musical expertise. Finally, we address the third question by reviewing evidence for the heritability of musical expertise and for how expertise develops through training and practice. We end by discussing outlooks for future work. © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A fully automated multi-modal computer aided diagnosis approach to coronary calcium scoring of MSCT images

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Jing; Ferns, Gordon; Giles, John; Lewis, Emma

2012-03-01

Inter- and intra- observer variability is a problem often faced when an expert or observer is tasked with assessing the severity of a disease. This issue is keenly felt in coronary calcium scoring of patients suffering from atherosclerosis where in clinical practice, the observer must identify firstly the presence, followed by the location of candidate calcified plaques found within the coronary arteries that may prevent oxygenated blood flow to the heart muscle. However, it can be difficult for a human observer to differentiate calcified plaques that are located in the coronary arteries from those found in surrounding anatomy such as the mitral valve or pericardium. In addition to the benefits to scoring accuracy, the use of fast, low dose multi-slice CT imaging to perform the cardiac scan is capable of acquiring the entire heart within a single breath hold. Thus exposing the patient to lower radiation dose, which for a progressive disease such as atherosclerosis where multiple scans may be required, is beneficial to their health. Presented here is a fully automated method for calcium scoring using both the traditional Agatston method, as well as the volume scoring method. Elimination of the unwanted regions of the cardiac image slices such as lungs, ribs, and vertebrae is carried out using adaptive heart isolation. Such regions cannot contain calcified plaques but can be of a similar intensity and their removal will aid detection. Removal of both the ascending and descending aortas, as they contain clinical insignificant plaques, is necessary before the final calcium scores are calculated and examined against ground truth scores of three averaged expert observer results. The results presented here are intended to show the feasibility and requirement for an automated scoring method to reduce the subjectivity and reproducibility error inherent with manual clinical calcium scoring.

Reflection group on 'Expert Culture'

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Eggermont, G

2000-07-01

As part of SCK-CEN's social sciences and humanities programme, a reflection group on 'Expert Culture' was established. The objectives of the reflection group are: (1) to clarify the role of SCK-CEN experts; (2) to clarify the new role of expertise in the evolving context of risk society; (3) to confront external views and internal SCK-CEN experiences on expert culture; (4) to improve trust building of experts and credibility of SCK-CEN as a nuclear actor in society; (5) to develop a draft for a deontological code; (6) to integrate the approach in training on assertivity and communication; (7) to create an output for a topical day on the subject of expert culture. The programme, achievements and perspectives of the refection group are summarised.

An Expert System for On-Site Instructional Advice.

Science.gov (United States)

Martindale, Elizabeth S.; Hofmeister, Alan M.

1988-01-01

Describes Written Language Consultant, an expert system designed to help teachers teach special education students how to write business letters. Three main components of the system are described, including entry of students' test scores; analysis of teachers' uses of classroom time and management techniques; and suggestions for improving test…

On the performance of social network and likelihood-based expert weighting schemes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cooke, Roger M.; ElSaadany, Susie; Huang Xinzheng

2008-01-01

Using expert judgment data from the TU Delft's expert judgment database, we compare the performance of different weighting schemes, namely equal weighting, performance-based weighting from the classical model [Cooke RM. Experts in uncertainty. Oxford: Oxford University Press; 1991.], social network (SN) weighting and likelihood weighting. The picture that emerges with regard to SN weights is rather mixed. SN theory does not provide an alternative to performance-based combination of expert judgments, since the statistical accuracy of the SN decision maker is sometimes unacceptably low. On the other hand, it does outperform equal weighting in the majority of cases. The results here, though not overwhelmingly positive, do nonetheless motivate further research into social interaction methods for nominating and weighting experts. Indeed, a full expert judgment study with performance measurement requires an investment in time and effort, with a view to securing external validation. If high confidence in a comparable level of validation can be obtained by less intensive methods, this would be very welcome, and would facilitate the application of structured expert judgment in situations where the resources for a full study are not available. Likelihood weights are just as resource intensive as performance-based weights, and the evidence presented here suggests that they are inferior to performance-based weights with regard to those scoring variables which are optimized in performance weights (calibration and information). Perhaps surprisingly, they are also inferior with regard to likelihood. Their use is further discouraged by the fact that they constitute a strongly improper scoring rule

Expert Systems: An Introduction -46 ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

Research Scientist in the. Knowledge Based. Computer Systems Group at NeST. He is one of the ... Expert systems encode human expertise in limited domains ... answers questions the user has and provides an explanation of its reasoning.

Human engineering in the design of expert systems for microcomputer system troubleshooting

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Easter, J.R.; Elm, W.C.

1988-01-01

The man-machine interfaces of the first generation of expert systems have usually received little or no explicit design effort. As a result, many of these systems when placed in their productive environment have only served to collect dust. One of the more aggravating attributes of such systems has been the demand that the user of such systems religiously follow the pre-determined and fixed problem solving path the domain expert designed in the expert system. Westinghouse has embarked on a program aimed at improving the productivity of the I and C maintenance staff responsible for caring for these new systems, the focus of which is the development of a computer based expert system to be used as a trouble-shooting aid. To date, Westinghouse has created a knowledge structure for such an expert system that describes the purposes or design objectives of the faulted microcomputer system

Comparison of a new expert elicitation model with the Classical Model, equal weights and single experts, using a cross-validation technique

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Flandoli, F. [Dip.to di Matematica Applicata, Universita di Pisa, Pisa (Italy); Giorgi, E. [Dip.to di Matematica Applicata, Universita di Pisa, Pisa (Italy); Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Pisa, via della Faggiola 32, 56126 Pisa (Italy); Aspinall, W.P. [Dept. of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, and Aspinall and Associates, Tisbury (United Kingdom); Neri, A., E-mail: neri@pi.ingv.it [Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Pisa, via della Faggiola 32, 56126 Pisa (Italy)

2011-10-15

The problem of ranking and weighting experts' performances when quantitative judgments are being elicited for decision support is considered. A new scoring model, the Expected Relative Frequency model, is presented, based on the closeness between central values provided by the expert and known values used for calibration. Using responses from experts in five different elicitation datasets, a cross-validation technique is used to compare this new approach with the Cooke Classical Model, the Equal Weights model, and individual experts. The analysis is performed using alternative reward schemes designed to capture proficiency either in quantifying uncertainty, or in estimating true central values. Results show that although there is only a limited probability that one approach is consistently better than another, the Cooke Classical Model is generally the most suitable for assessing uncertainties, whereas the new ERF model should be preferred if the goal is central value estimation accuracy. - Highlights: > A new expert elicitation model, named Expected Relative Frequency (ERF), is presented. > A cross-validation approach to evaluate the performance of different elicitation models is applied. > The new ERF model shows the best performance with respect to the point-wise estimates.

Unsupervised online classifier in sleep scoring for sleep deprivation studies.

Science.gov (United States)

Libourel, Paul-Antoine; Corneyllie, Alexandra; Luppi, Pierre-Hervé; Chouvet, Guy; Gervasoni, Damien

2015-05-01

This study was designed to evaluate an unsupervised adaptive algorithm for real-time detection of sleep and wake states in rodents. We designed a Bayesian classifier that automatically extracts electroencephalogram (EEG) and electromyogram (EMG) features and categorizes non-overlapping 5-s epochs into one of the three major sleep and wake states without any human supervision. This sleep-scoring algorithm is coupled online with a new device to perform selective paradoxical sleep deprivation (PSD). Controlled laboratory settings for chronic polygraphic sleep recordings and selective PSD. Ten adult Sprague-Dawley rats instrumented for chronic polysomnographic recordings. The performance of the algorithm is evaluated by comparison with the score obtained by a human expert reader. Online detection of PS is then validated with a PSD protocol with duration of 72 hours. Our algorithm gave a high concordance with human scoring with an average κ coefficient > 70%. Notably, the specificity to detect PS reached 92%. Selective PSD using real-time detection of PS strongly reduced PS amounts, leaving only brief PS bouts necessary for the detection of PS in EEG and EMG signals (4.7 ± 0.7% over 72 h, versus 8.9 ± 0.5% in baseline), and was followed by a significant PS rebound (23.3 ± 3.3% over 150 minutes). Our fully unsupervised data-driven algorithm overcomes some limitations of the other automated methods such as the selection of representative descriptors or threshold settings. When used online and coupled with our sleep deprivation device, it represents a better option for selective PSD than other methods like the tedious gentle handling or the platform method. © 2015 Associated Professional Sleep Societies, LLC.

Knowledge representation and use. I. Expert systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lauriere, J L

1982-01-01

Expert systems are designed as aids in human reasoning in various specific areas. Symbolic knowledge manipulation, uncertain and incomplete deduction capabilities, natural communication with humans in non-procedural ways are their essential features. The paper describes their design and several implementations. 105 references.

Preliminary testing of the reliability and feasibility of SAGE: a system to measure and score engagement with and use of research in health policies and programs.

Science.gov (United States)

Makkar, Steve R; Williamson, Anna; D'Este, Catherine; Redman, Sally

2017-12-19

Few measures of research use in health policymaking are available, and the reliability of such measures has yet to be evaluated. A new measure called the Staff Assessment of Engagement with Evidence (SAGE) incorporates an interview that explores policymakers' research use within discrete policy documents and a scoring tool that quantifies the extent of policymakers' research use based on the interview transcript and analysis of the policy document itself. We aimed to conduct a preliminary investigation of the usability, sensitivity, and reliability of the scoring tool in measuring research use by policymakers. Nine experts in health policy research and two independent coders were recruited. Each expert used the scoring tool to rate a random selection of 20 interview transcripts, and each independent coder rated 60 transcripts. The distribution of scores among experts was examined, and then, interrater reliability was tested within and between the experts and independent coders. Average- and single-measure reliability coefficients were computed for each SAGE subscales. Experts' scores ranged from the limited to extensive scoring bracket for all subscales. Experts as a group also exhibited at least a fair level of interrater agreement across all subscales. Single-measure reliability was at least fair except for three subscales: Relevance Appraisal, Conceptual Use, and Instrumental Use. Average- and single-measure reliability among independent coders was good to excellent for all subscales. Finally, reliability between experts and independent coders was fair to excellent for all subscales. Among experts, the scoring tool was comprehensible, usable, and sensitive to discriminate between documents with varying degrees of research use. Secondly, the scoring tool yielded scores with good reliability among the independent coders. There was greater variability among experts, although as a group, the tool was fairly reliable. The alignment between experts' and independent

Evaluation of Internet Social Networks using Net scoring Tool: A Case Study in Adverse Drug Reaction Mining.

Science.gov (United States)

Katsahian, Sandrine; Simond Moreau, Erica; Leprovost, Damien; Lardon, Jeremy; Bousquet, Cedric; Kerdelhué, Gaétan; Abdellaoui, Redhouane; Texier, Nathalie; Burgun, Anita; Boussadi, Abdelali; Faviez, Carole

2015-01-01

Suspected adverse drug reactions (ADR) reported by patients through social media can be a complementary tool to already existing ADRs signal detection processes. However, several studies have shown that the quality of medical information published online varies drastically whatever the health topic addressed. The aim of this study is to use an existing rating tool on a set of social network web sites in order to assess the capabilities of these tools to guide experts for selecting the most adapted social network web site to mine ADRs. First, we reviewed and rated 132 Internet forums and social networks according to three major criteria: the number of visits, the notoriety of the forum and the number of messages posted in relation with health and drug therapy. Second, the pharmacist reviewed the topic-oriented message boards with a small number of drug names to ensure that they were not off topic. Six experts have been chosen to assess the selected internet forums using a French scoring tool: Net scoring. Three different scores and the agreement between experts according to each set of scores using weighted kappa pooled using mean have been computed. Three internet forums were chosen at the end of the selection step. Some criteria get high score (scores 3-4) no matter the website evaluated like accessibility (45-46) or design (34-36), at the opposite some criteria always have bad scores like quantitative (40-42) and ethical aspect (43-44), hyperlinks actualization (30-33). Kappa were positives but very small which corresponds to a weak agreement between experts. The personal opinion of the expert seems to have a major impact, undermining the relevance of the criterion. Our future work is to collect results given by this evaluation grid and proposes a new scoring tool for Internet social networks assessment.

A Comparison of Two Scoring Methods for an Automated Speech Scoring System

Science.gov (United States)

Xi, Xiaoming; Higgins, Derrick; Zechner, Klaus; Williamson, David

2012-01-01

This paper compares two alternative scoring methods--multiple regression and classification trees--for an automated speech scoring system used in a practice environment. The two methods were evaluated on two criteria: construct representation and empirical performance in predicting human scores. The empirical performance of the two scoring models…

Computers start to think with expert systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1983-03-21

A growing number of professionals-notably in oil and mineral exploration, plasma research, medicine, VLSI circuit design, drug design and robotics-are beginning to use computerised expert systems. A computer program uses knowledge and inference procedures to solve problems which are sufficiently difficult to require significant human expertise for their solution. The facts constitute a body of information that is widely shared, publicly available and generally agreed upon by experts in the field. The heuristics are mostly private, and little discussed, rules of good judgement (rules of plausible reasoning, rules of good guessing, etc.) that characterise expert-level decision making in the field.

Expert system for transuranic waste assay

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zoolalian, M.L.; Gibbs, A.; Kuhns, J.D.

1989-01-01

Transuranic wastes are generated at the Savannah River Site (SRS) as a result of routine production of nuclear materials. These wastes contain Pu-238 and Pu-239 and are placed into lined 55-gallon waste drums. The drums are placed on monitored storage pads pending shipment to the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant in New Mexico. A passive-active neutron (PAN) assay system is used to determine the mass of the radioactive material within the waste drums. Assay results are used to classify the wastes as either low-level or transuranic (TRU). During assays, the PAN assay system communicates with an IBM-AT computer. A Fortran computer program, called NEUT, controls and performs all data analyses. Unassisted, the NEUT program cannot adequately interpret assay results. To eliminate this limitation, an expert system shell was used to write a new algorithm, called the Transuranic Expert System (TRUX), to drive the NEUT program and add decision making capabilities for analysis of the assay results. The TRUX knowledge base was formulated by consulting with human experts in the field of neutron assay, by direct experimentation on the PAN assay system, and by observing operations on a daily basis. TRUX, with its improved ability to interpret assay results, has eliminated the need for close supervision by a human expert, allowing skilled technicians to operate the PAN assay system. 4 refs., 1 fig., 4 tabs.

Expert system for transuranic waste assay

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zoolalian, M.L.; Gibbs, A.; Kuhns, J.D.

1989-01-01

Transuranic wastes are generated at the Savannah River Site (SRS) as a result of routine production of nuclear materials. These wastes contain Pu-238 and Pu-239 and are placed into lined 55-gallon waste drums. The drums are placed on monitored storage pads pending shipment to the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant in New Mexico. A passive-active neutron (PAN) assay system is used to determine the mass of the radioactive material within the waste drums. Assay results are used to classify the wastes as either low-level or transuranic (TRU). During assays, the PAN assay system communicates with an IBM-AT computer. A Fortran computer program, called NEUT, controls and performs all data analyses. Unassisted, the NEUT program cannot adequately interpret assay results. To eliminate this limitation, an expert system shell was used to write a new algorithm, called the Transuranic Expert System (TRUX), to drive the NEUT program and add decision making capabilities for analysis of the assay results. The TRUX knowledge base was formulated by consulting with human experts in the field of neutron assay, by direct experimentation on the PAN assay system, and by observing operations on a daily basis. TRUX, with its improved ability to interpret assay results, has eliminated the need for close supervision by a human expert, allowing skilled technicians to operate the PAN assay system. 4 refs., 1 fig., 4 tabs

Scoring of Decomposition: A Proposed Amendment to the Method When Using a Pig Model for Human Studies.

Science.gov (United States)

Keough, Natalie; Myburgh, Jolandie; Steyn, Maryna

2017-07-01

Decomposition studies often use pigs as proxies for human cadavers. However, differences in decomposition sequences/rates relative to humans have not been scientifically examined. Descriptions of five main decomposition stages (humans) were developed and refined by Galloway and later by Megyesi. However, whether these changes/processes are alike in pigs is unclear. Any differences can have significant effects when pig models are used for human PMI estimation. This study compared human decomposition models to the changes observed in pigs. Twenty pigs (50-90 kg) were decomposed over five months and decompositional features recorded. Total body scores (TBS) were calculated. Significant differences were observed during early decomposition between pigs and humans. An amended scoring system to be used in future studies was developed. Standards for PMI estimation derived from porcine models may not directly apply to humans and may need adjustment. Porcine models, however, remain valuable to study variables influencing decomposition. © 2016 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

Expert estimation of human error probabilities in nuclear power plant operations: a review of probability assessment and scaling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stillwell, W.G.; Seaver, D.A.; Schwartz, J.P.

1982-05-01

This report reviews probability assessment and psychological scaling techniques that could be used to estimate human error probabilities (HEPs) in nuclear power plant operations. The techniques rely on expert opinion and can be used to estimate HEPs where data do not exist or are inadequate. These techniques have been used in various other contexts and have been shown to produce reasonably accurate probabilities. Some problems do exist, and limitations are discussed. Additional topics covered include methods for combining estimates from multiple experts, the effects of training on probability estimates, and some ideas on structuring the relationship between performance shaping factors and HEPs. Preliminary recommendations are provided along with cautions regarding the costs of implementing the recommendations. Additional research is required before definitive recommendations can be made

Artificial Experts: The Computer as Diagnostician Has Definite Limits.

Science.gov (United States)

Pournelle, Jerry

1984-01-01

Argues that, although expert systems--which are supposed to give users all the advantages of consulting with human experts--can be useful for medical diagnosis, where tests tend to be reliable, they can be hazardous in such areas as psychological testing, where test reliability is difficult to measure. (MBR)

Estimating Production Potentials: Expert Bias in Applied Decision Making

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Matthews, L.J.; Burggraf, L.K.; Reece, W.J.

1998-01-01

A study was conducted to evaluate how workers predict manufacturing production potentials given positively and negatively framed information. Findings indicate the existence of a bias toward positive information and suggest that this bias may be reduced with experience but is never the less maintained. Experts err in the same way non experts do in differentially processing negative and positive information. Additionally, both experts and non experts tend to overestimate production potentials in a positive direction. The authors propose that these biases should be addressed with further research including cross domain analyses and consideration in training, workplace design, and human performance modeling

The impact of human-technology cooperation and distributed cognition in forensic science: biasing effects of AFIS contextual information on human experts.

Science.gov (United States)

Dror, Itiel E; Wertheim, Kasey; Fraser-Mackenzie, Peter; Walajtys, Jeff

2012-03-01

Experts play a critical role in forensic decision making, even when cognition is offloaded and distributed between human and machine. In this paper, we investigated the impact of using Automated Fingerprint Identification Systems (AFIS) on human decision makers. We provided 3680 AFIS lists (a total of 55,200 comparisons) to 23 latent fingerprint examiners as part of their normal casework. We manipulated the position of the matching print in the AFIS list. The data showed that latent fingerprint examiners were affected by the position of the matching print in terms of false exclusions and false inconclusives. Furthermore, the data showed that false identification errors were more likely at the top of the list and that such errors occurred even when the correct match was present further down the list. These effects need to be studied and considered carefully, so as to optimize human decision making when using technologies such as AFIS. © 2011 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

Price competition between an expert and a non-expert

OpenAIRE

Bouckaert, J.M.C.; Degryse, H.A.

1998-01-01

This paper characterizes price competition between an expert and a non-expert. In contrast with the expert, the non-expert’s repair technology is not always successful. Consumers visit the expert after experiencing an unsuccessful match at the non-expert. This re-entry affects the behaviour of both sellers. For low enough probability of successful repair at the non-expert, all consumers first visit the non-expert, and a ‘timid-pricing’ equilibrium results. If the non-expert’s repair technolog...

EPRI expert system activities for nuclear utility industry application

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Naser, J.A.

1990-01-01

This paper reports on expert systems which have reached a level of maturity where they offer considerable benefits for the nuclear utility industry. The ability of expert systems to enhance expertise makes them an important tool for the nuclear utility industry in the areas of engineering, operations and maintenance. Benefits of expert system applications include comprehensive and consistent reasoning, reduction of time required for activities, retention of human expertise and ability to utilize multiple experts knowledge for an activity. The Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) has been performing four basic activities to help the nuclear industry take advantage of this expert system technology. The first is the development of expert system building tools which are tailored to nuclear utility industry applications. The second is the development of expert system applications. The third is work in developing a methodology for verification and validation of expert systems. The last is technology transfer activities to help the nuclear utility industry benefit from expert systems. The purpose of this paper is to describe the EPRI activities

Scores for standardization of on-tissue digestion of formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded tissue in MALDI-MS imaging.

Science.gov (United States)

Erich, Katrin; Sammour, Denis A; Marx, Alexander; Hopf, Carsten

2017-07-01

On-slide digestion of formalin-fixed and paraffin-embedded human biopsy tissue followed by mass spectrometry imaging of resulting peptides may have the potential to become an additional analytical modality in future ePathology. Multiple workflows have been described for dewaxing, antigen retrieval, digestion and imaging in the past decade. However, little is known about suitable statistical scores for method comparison and systematic workflow standardization required for development of processes that would be robust enough to be compatible with clinical routine. To define scores for homogeneity of tissue processing and imaging as well as inter-day repeatability for five different processing methods, we used human liver and gastrointestinal stromal tumor tissue, both judged by an expert pathologist to be >98% histologically homogeneous. For mean spectra-based as well as pixel-wise data analysis, we propose the coefficient of determination R 2 , the natural fold-change (natFC) value and the digest efficiency DE% as readily accessible scores. Moreover, we introduce two scores derived from principal component analysis, the variance of the mean absolute deviation, MAD, and the interclass overlap, J overlap , as computational scores that may help to avoid user bias during future workflow development. This article is part of a Special Issue entitled: MALDI Imaging, edited by Dr. Corinna Henkel and Prof. Peter Hoffmann. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Expert opinion on landslide susceptibility elicted by probabilistic inversion from scenario rankings

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Katy; Dashwood, Claire; Lark, Murray

2016-04-01

For many natural hazards the opinion of experts, with experience in assessing susceptibility under different circumstances, is a valuable source of information on which to base risk assessments. This is particularly important where incomplete process understanding, and limited data, limit the scope to predict susceptibility by mechanistic or statistical modelling. The expert has a tacit model of a system, based on their understanding of processes and their field experience. This model may vary in quality, depending on the experience of the expert. There is considerable interest in how one may elicit expert understanding by a process which is transparent and robust, to provide a basis for decision support. One approach is to provide experts with a set of scenarios, and then to ask them to rank small overlapping subsets of these with respect to susceptibility. Methods of probabilistic inversion have been used to compute susceptibility scores for each scenario, implicit in the expert ranking. It is also possible to model these scores as functions of measurable properties of the scenarios. This approach has been used to assess susceptibility of animal populations to invasive diseases, to assess risk to vulnerable marine environments and to assess the risk in hypothetical novel technologies for food production. We will present the results of a study in which a group of geologists with varying degrees of expertise in assessing landslide hazards were asked to rank sets of hypothetical simplified scenarios with respect to land slide susceptibility. We examine the consistency of their rankings and the importance of different properties of the scenarios in the tacit susceptibility model that their rankings implied. Our results suggest that this is a promising approach to the problem of how experts can communicate their tacit model of uncertain systems to those who want to make use of their expertise.

Establishment of a general NAFLD scoring system for rodent models and comparison to human liver pathology.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wen Liang

Full Text Available The recently developed histological scoring system for non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD by the NASH Clinical Research Network (NASH-CRN has been widely used in clinical settings, but is increasingly employed in preclinical research as well. However, it has not been systematically analyzed whether the human scoring system can directly be converted to preclinical rodent models. To analyze this, we systematically compared human NAFLD liver pathology, using human liver biopsies, with liver pathology of several NAFLD mouse models. Based upon the features pertaining to mouse NAFLD, we aimed at establishing a modified generic scoring system that is applicable to broad spectrum of rodent models.The histopathology of NAFLD was analyzed in several different mouse models of NAFLD to define generic criteria for histological assessment (preclinical scoring system. For validation of this scoring system, 36 slides of mouse livers, covering the whole spectrum of NAFLD, were blindly analyzed by ten observers. Additionally, the livers were blindly scored by one observer during two separate assessments longer than 3 months apart.The criteria macrovesicular steatosis, microvesicular steatosis, hepatocellular hypertrophy, inflammation and fibrosis were generally applicable to rodent NAFLD. The inter-observer reproducibility (evaluated using the Intraclass Correlation Coefficient between the ten observers was high for the analysis of macrovesicular steatosis and microvesicular steatosis (ICC = 0.784 and 0.776, all p<0.001, respectively and moderate for the analysis of hypertrophy and inflammation (ICC = 0.685 and 0.650, all p<0.001, respectively. The intra-observer reproducibility between the different observations of one observer was high for the analysis of macrovesicular steatosis, microvesicular steatosis and hypertrophy (ICC = 0.871, 0.871 and 0.896, all p<0.001, respectively and very high for the analysis of inflammation (ICC = 0.931, p

Expert system verification and validation for nuclear power industry applications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Naser, J.A.

1990-01-01

The potential for the use of expert systems in the nuclear power industry is widely recognized. The benefits of such systems include consistency of reasoning during off-normal situations when humans are under great stress, the reduction of times required to perform certain functions, the prevention of equipment failures through predictive diagnostics, and the retention of human expertise in performing specialized functions. The increased use of expert systems brings with it concerns about their reliability. Difficulties arising from software problems can affect plant safety, reliability, and availability. A joint project between EPRI and the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission is being initiated to develop a methodology for verification and validation of expert systems for nuclear power applications. This methodology will be tested on existing and developing expert systems. This effort will explore the applicability of conventional verification and validation methodologies to expert systems. The major area of concern will be certification of the knowledge base. This is expected to require new types of verification and validation techniques. A methodology for developing validation scenarios will also be studied

Expert systems: an alternative paradigm

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Coombs, M.; Alty, J.

1984-01-01

There has recently been a significant effort by the AI community to interest industry in the potential of expert systems. However, this has resulted in far fewer substantial applications projects than might be expected. This article argues that this is because human experts are rarely required to perform the role that computer-based experts are programmed to adopt. Instead of being called in to answer well-defined problems, they are more often asked to assist other experts to extend and refine their understanding of a problem area at the junction of their two domains of knowledge. This more properly involves educational rather than problem-solving skills. An alternative approach to expert system design is proposed based upon guided discovery learning. The user is provided with a supportive environment for a particular class of problem, the system predominantly acting as an adviser rather than directing the interaction. The environment includes a database of domain knowledge, a set of procedures for its application to a concrete problem, and an intelligent machine-based adviser to judge the user's effectiveness and advise on strategy. The procedures focus upon the use of user generated explanations both to promote the application of domain knowledge and to expose understanding difficulties. Simple database PROLOG is being used as the subject material for the prototype system which is known as MINDPAD. 30 references.

An automated multi-modal object analysis approach to coronary calcium scoring of adaptive heart isolated MSCT images

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Jing; Ferns, Gordon; Giles, John; Lewis, Emma

2012-02-01

Inter- and intra- observer variability is a problem often faced when an expert or observer is tasked with assessing the severity of a disease. This issue is keenly felt in coronary calcium scoring of patients suffering from atherosclerosis where in clinical practice, the observer must identify firstly the presence, followed by the location of candidate calcified plaques found within the coronary arteries that may prevent oxygenated blood flow to the heart muscle. This can be challenging for a human observer as it is difficult to differentiate calcified plaques that are located in the coronary arteries from those found in surrounding anatomy such as the mitral valve or pericardium. The inclusion or exclusion of false positive or true positive calcified plaques respectively will alter the patient calcium score incorrectly, thus leading to the possibility of incorrect treatment prescription. In addition to the benefits to scoring accuracy, the use of fast, low dose multi-slice CT imaging to perform the cardiac scan is capable of acquiring the entire heart within a single breath hold. Thus exposing the patient to lower radiation dose, which for a progressive disease such as atherosclerosis where multiple scans may be required, is beneficial to their health. Presented here is a fully automated method for calcium scoring using both the traditional Agatston method, as well as the Volume scoring method. Elimination of the unwanted regions of the cardiac image slices such as lungs, ribs, and vertebrae is carried out using adaptive heart isolation. Such regions cannot contain calcified plaques but can be of a similar intensity and their removal will aid detection. Removal of both the ascending and descending aortas, as they contain clinical insignificant plaques, is necessary before the final calcium scores are calculated and examined against ground truth scores of three averaged expert observer results. The results presented here are intended to show the requirement and

Experiment with expert system guidance of an engineering analysis task

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ransom, V.H.; Fink, R.K.; Callow, R.A.

1986-01-01

An experiment is being conducted in which expert systems are used to guide the performance of an engineering analysis task. The task chosen for experimentation is the application of a large thermal hydraulic transient simulation computer code. The expectation from this work is that the expert system will result in an improved analytical result with a reduction in the amount of human labor and expertise required. The code associated functions of model formulation, data input, code execution, and analysis of the computed output have all been identified as candidate tasks that could benefit from the use of expert systems. Expert system modules have been built for the model building and data input task. Initial results include the observation that human expectations of an intelligent environment rapidly escalate and structured or stylized tasks that are tolerated in the unaided system are frustrating within the intelligent environment

Expert witness and Jungian archetypes.

Science.gov (United States)

Lallave, Juan Antonio; Gutheil, Thomas Gordon

2012-01-01

Jung's theories of archetype, shadow, and the personal and collective unconscious provide a postmodern framework in which to consider the role of the expert witness in judicial proceedings. Archetypal themes, motifs, and influences help to illuminate the shadow of the judicial system and projections and behaviors among the cast of the court in pursuing justice. This article speaks to archetypal influences and dialectical tensions encountered by the expert witness in this judicial drama. The archetype of Justice is born from the human need for order and relational fairness in a world of chaos. The persona of justice is the promise of truth in the drama. The shadow of justice is untruth, the need to win by any means. The dynamics of the trickster archetype serve and promote injustice. These influences are examined by means of a case example. This approach will deepen understanding of court proceedings and the role of the expert witness in the heroic quest for justice. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Attribution of Foodborne Pathogens Using Structured Expert Elicitation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Havelaar, A.H.; Vargas Galindo, A.; Kurowicka, D.; Cooke, R.M.

2008-01-01

Objectives: To estimate the fraction of human cases of enterically transmitted illness by five major pathways (food, environment, direct animal contact, human–human transmission, and travel) and by 11 groups within the food pathway. Methods: Food safety experts were asked to provide their estimates

Making a human right to tobacco control: expert and advocacy networks, framing and the right to health.

Science.gov (United States)

Reubi, David

2012-01-01

This article addresses the proliferation of human rights in international public health over the last 20 years by examining recent attempts at framing the global smoking epidemic as a human rights problem. Rather than advocating in favour or against human rights-based approaches, the article purports to understand how and why such approaches are being articulated and disseminated. First, it argues that the representation of the global smoking epidemic as a human rights issue has been the product of a small, international network of public health experts and lawyers: the human rights and tobacco control collective or community (HTC). The article describes in particular the HTC's membership, its style of thinking and its efforts to articulate and disseminate human rights-based approaches to tobacco control. Second, the article argues that the aim of the HTC when framing tobacco control as a human rights issue was not to generate public attention for and the political will to tackle the global smoking epidemic, as the literature on framing and human rights presupposes. Instead, as the article shows, the HTC framed tobacco control as a human rights problem to tap into the powerful, judicial monitoring and enforceability mechanisms that make up international human rights.

Industrial disasters - the expert systems solution

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sachs, P.

1986-01-01

Six mistakes by the operators led to the accident at the Cherobyl nuclear reactor. These have been studied. It is suggested that an expert systems approach could prevent similar accidents. The expert system is a new approach to software programming where programs are required to perform intelligent analyses of complex situations. It separates the knowledge of a problem from the procedural code that performs the decision. An expert system will evaluate data and indicate a priority on alarms in real time. Now software systems can detect the cause of a problem in a process plant and present their findings to the operators in the control room. This should enable operators to make the correct decisions as they will know which underlying process faults are causing the alarms to operate. The Chernobyl post-mortem meeting made 13 proposals for improving safety. Two in particular are noted as relevant to expert advice systems; international collaboration on man-reactor relationships and a conference to explore the balance of automation and human action to minimise operating errors. (U.K.)

My max score AP statistics maximize your score in less time

CERN Document Server

Ross, Phd, Amanda

2013-01-01

The only study guide to offer expert, customized study plans for every student's needs You've had a year to study...but also a year to forget. As the AP test approaches, other guides reexamine the entire year of material. But only one guide identifies your strengths and weaknesses, then points you directly to the review you need most My Max Score, a new concept developed by AP teachers and exam graders, offers separate review materials for long-term prep and last-minute cram sessions-no matter when you start studying, This is just what you need-plus str

An expert system for diesel generator diagnostics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bley, D.C.; Read, J.W.; Kaplan, S.; Liming, J.K.; Brosee, N.M.; Hanley, D.W.

1987-01-01

The idea of developing artificial intelligence (AI) systems to capture the knowledge of human experts is receiving much attention these days. The idea is even more attractive when important expertise resides within a single individual, especially one who is nearing retirement and who has not otherwise recorded or passed along his important knowledge and thought processes. The diesel generators at Pilgrim Nuclear Power Station have performed exceptionally well, primarily due to the care and attention of one man. Therefore, the authors are constructing an expert system for the diagnosis of diesel generator problems at Pilgrim. This paper includes a description of the expert system design and operation, examples from the knowledge base, and sample diagnoses, so the reader can observe the process in action

NESSUS/EXPERT - An expert system for probabilistic structural analysis methods

Science.gov (United States)

Millwater, H.; Palmer, K.; Fink, P.

1988-01-01

An expert system (NESSUS/EXPERT) is presented which provides assistance in using probabilistic structural analysis methods. NESSUS/EXPERT is an interactive menu-driven expert system that provides information to assist in the use of the probabilistic finite element code NESSUS/FEM and the fast probability integrator. NESSUS/EXPERT was developed with a combination of FORTRAN and CLIPS, a C language expert system tool, to exploit the strengths of each language.

Developing a HACCP-like system for improving animal health and welfare in organic egg production - based on an expert panel analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Hegelund, L; Sørensen, J T

2007-08-01

In the process of developing a generic Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Point (HACCP)-like system for securing animal health and welfare in organic egg production, an expert panel analysis was used to perform the initial hazard analysis. Eighteen advisers and researchers in organic egg production were included in the expert panel. In a series of four questionnaires, the expert panel first scored 34 health and welfare problems seen in Danish organic egg production. Based on scorings of severity and occurrence, 10 problems were selected for further analysis. The experts subsequently suggested and scored risk factors for those problems and finally suggested control points, alarm values indicating the need for corrective actions in order to control the risk factors and monitoring frequencies of these. The 10 selected problems were hunger, thirst, piling, crop impaction, blackhead, pasteurellosis, bone fractures, cannibalism, predators and red mites. A total of 154 different risk factors were suggested for these problems. The 41 risk factors which rated highest in a combined scoring of importance and occurrence were selected for further analysis. There was a high degree of consensus between experts when scoring both problems and risk factors. The level of consensus, as defined by an interquartile range 1, was 79% to 100% when scoring the health and welfare problems (scale 1-5) and 77% to 95% when scoring the risk factors (scale 1-4). On average, 5.8 control points were suggested for every risk factor. Alarm values were often not detailed enough to be of practical significance and further analysis is needed in order to define these. The experts were highly diverse in their suggested monitoring frequencies and establishment of monitoring schemes should be part of developing the farm specific systems. An expert panel analysis based on questionnaires was a useful tool during the first steps of developing a HACCP plan, conducting a hazard analysis and suggesting control

An investigation into the use of ''expert systems'' for system-wide diagnostics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Booth, A.W.; Carroll, J.T.

1987-01-01

This paper has explained how expert systems function and how they might be used to provide a FASTBUS system-wide diagnostic program. The authors propose that the system be used to diagnose the FASTBUS system at FERMILAB's CDF experiment. There are many important areas which have not been addressed in great detail in this paper (such as the roles of the knowledge engineer and the expert during the knowledge acquisition phase), but the central idea of the embodiment of an expert skill in a computer is clear. Development of a system-wide diagnostic program requires building knowledge from all our system experts, into the system. To expand the expert system beyond its network diagnostic ability, to include finding faulty modules would be worthwhile. Having an ''intelligent'' assistant who is on shift 24 hours each day would relieve the ''real'' experts from laborious, time-consuming and sometimes repetitive tasks undertaken during the debugging process. The system could also provide a testbed for evaluation and comparison when considering future expert-system applications such as ''run-control'' and ''data analysis''. In the context of a system-wide diagnostic program, an ''expert system'' is not intended to replace human experts but simply to help them. It is envisaged that there will always be important interaction between the human expert and the ''expert system''. The incremental development of the ''expert system'' should ensure that it is useful in the short term (by debugging to the S.I./segment level for example), and even more useful in the medium to longer term as it acquires more and more knowledge and the ability to debug to the module level. Expert systems exist and are working successfully in many problem domains. See the bibliography for examples of ''expert systems'' built in the high energy physics environment

Apprenticeship Learning: Learning to Schedule from Human Experts

Science.gov (United States)

2016-06-09

identified by the heuristic . A spectrum of problems (i.e. traveling salesman, job-shop scheduling, multi-vehicle routing) was represented , as task locations...caus- ing the codification of this knowledge to become labori- ous. We propose a new approach for capturing domain- expert heuristics through a...demonstrate that this approach accu- rately learns multi-faceted heuristics on both a synthetic data set incorporating job-shop scheduling and vehicle

Estimating structural collapse fragility of generic building typologies using expert judgment

Science.gov (United States)

Jaiswal, Kishor S.; Wald, D.J.; Perkins, D.; Aspinall, W.P.; Kiremidjian, Anne S.; Deodatis, George; Ellingwood, Bruce R.; Frangopol, Dan M.

2014-01-01

The structured expert elicitation process proposed by Cooke (1991), hereafter referred to as Cooke’s approach, is applied for the first time in the realm of structural collapse-fragility assessment for selected generic construction types. Cooke’s approach works on the principle of objective calibration scoring of judgments coupled with hypothesis testing used in classical statistics. The performance-based scoring system reflects the combined measure of an expert’s informativeness about variables in the problem area under consideration, and their ability to enumerate, in a statistically accurate way through expressing their true beliefs, the quantitative uncertainties associated with their assessments. We summarize the findings of an expert elicitation workshop in which a dozen earthquake-engineering professionals from around the world were engaged to estimate seismic collapse fragility for generic construction types. Development of seismic collapse fragility functions was accomplished by combining their judgments using weights derived from Cooke’s method. Although substantial effort was needed to elicit the inputs of these experts successfully, we anticipate that the elicitation strategy described here will gain momentum in a wide variety of earthquake seismology and engineering hazard and risk analyses where physical model and data limitations are inherent and objective professional judgment can fill gaps.

Expert systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haldy, P.A.

1988-01-01

The definitions of the terms 'artificial intelligence' and 'expert systems', the methodology, areas of employment and limits of expert systems are discussed. The operation of an expert system is described, especially the presentation and organization of knowledge as well as interference and control. Methods and tools for expert system development are presented and their application in nuclear energy are briefly addressed. 7 figs., 2 tabs., 6 refs

The Potential of Computer-Based Expert Systems for Special Educators in Rural Settings.

Science.gov (United States)

Parry, James D.; Ferrara, Joseph M.

Knowledge-based expert computer systems are addressing issues relevant to all special educators, but are particularly relevant in rural settings where human experts are less available because of distance and cost. An expert system is an application of artificial intelligence (AI) that typically engages the user in a dialogue resembling the…

Problematic Aspects of the Use of Expert Systems in Law

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marius Kalinauskas

2011-08-01

Full Text Available Summary. The usage of expert systems in law brings many problematic questions. Complexity and intricacy of law, combined with limited possibilities of information technologies makes it difficult to create flawlessly working expert systems. In this article the author analyses problematic aspects related to expert system usage in law. Comparisons of various research are made according to analysis of scientific articles. The author analyses practical difficulties of legal norm representation, creation of expert knowledge ontology, expert systems liability issues. Legal responsibility of expert system developers, users, and owners are also covered in this paper. Creation of legal ontologies is a complicated process because of the nature of the subject itself and the complexity and quantity of knowledge which must be represented in order to have fully functional legal expert system. Legal information basically consists of legal norms, doctrine, precedents and expert knowledge. All of these areas have specific representation issues, but the most difficult part is to make ontology and representation of expert knowledge. Different experts may have distinct points of view in some similar cases. Human decisions are made not only by applying certain rules to the problem decision pattern. Providence, analytical skills and critical thinking is required in legal professional work. Human reasoning and decision-making is not only based on symbolic values, it also consists of intermediate symbolic assumptions. So the question is: is it possible to give a clear structure to something which has no permanent state? The other problem which is analyzed in this article is artificial reasoning methods, which are basically different forms of pattern recognition with some specific methods applied to them. The second part of the paper analyses the liability of expert systems. Nowadays expert systems can’t be legally responsible for their decisions. They lack

Problematic Aspects of the Use of Expert Systems in Law

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marius Kalinauskas

2013-08-01

Full Text Available The usage of expert systems in law brings many problematic questions. Complexity and intricacy of law, combined with limited possibilities of information technologies makes it difficult to create flawlessly working expert systems. In this article the author analyses problematic aspects related to expert system usage in law. Comparisons of various research are made according to analysis of scientific articles. The author analyses practical difficulties of legal norm representation, creation of expert knowledge ontology, expert systems liability issues. Legal responsibility of expert system developers, users, and owners are also covered in this paper. Creation of legal ontologies is a complicated process because of the nature of the subject itself and the complexity and quantity of knowledge which must be represented in order to have fully functional legal expert system. Legal information basically consists of legal norms, doctrine, precedents and expert knowledge. All of these areas have specific representation issues, but the most difficult part is to make ontology and representation of expert knowledge. Different experts may have distinct points of view in some similar cases. Human decisions are made not only by applying certain rules to the problem decision pattern. Providence, analytical skills and critical thinking is required in legal professional work. Human reasoning and decision-making is not only based on symbolic values, it also consists of intermediate symbolic assumptions. So the question is: is it possible to give a clear structure to something which has no permanent state? The other problem which is analyzed in this article is artificial reasoning methods, which are basically different forms of pattern recognition with some specific methods applied to them. The second part of the paper analyses the liability of expert systems. Nowadays expert systems can’t be legally responsible for their decisions. They lack intellectual

AN EXPERT SYSTEM FOR SUPPORTING THE PRODUCTION OF PLEASURE BOATS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tomasz GONCIARZ

2013-07-01

Full Text Available Expert systems can be defined as computer programs, whose main task is to simulate a human expert, usually in a narrow field of expertise. Possible applications of modern information technology are very extensive, ranging from medicine, geology and technology to applications in the field of economic and financial decision support. The purpose of this paper is to present the practical application of an expert system that supports the process of managing the production of yachts and has a high suitability for use in this application. Using the expert system described in the paper reduces the time during the design and production preparation process.

Automatic Algorithm for the Determination of the Anderson-wilkins Acuteness Score In Patients With St Elevation Myocardial Infarction

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fakhri, Yama; Sejersten, Maria; Schoos, Mikkel Malby

2016-01-01

using 50 ECGs. Each ECG lead (except aVR) was manually scored according to AW-score by two independent experts (Exp1 and Exp2) and automatically by our designed algorithm (auto-score). An adjudicated manual score (Adj-score) was determined between Exp1 and Exp2. The inter-rater reliabilities (IRRs...

World Health Organization Estimates of the Relative Contributions of Food to the Burden of Disease Due to Selected Foodborne Hazards: A Structured Expert Elicitation.

Science.gov (United States)

Hald, Tine; Aspinall, Willy; Devleesschauwer, Brecht; Cooke, Roger; Corrigan, Tim; Havelaar, Arie H; Gibb, Herman J; Torgerson, Paul R; Kirk, Martyn D; Angulo, Fred J; Lake, Robin J; Speybroeck, Niko; Hoffmann, Sandra

2016-01-01

The Foodborne Disease Burden Epidemiology Reference Group (FERG) was established in 2007 by the World Health Organization (WHO) to estimate the global burden of foodborne diseases (FBDs). This estimation is complicated because most of the hazards causing FBD are not transmitted solely by food; most have several potential exposure routes consisting of transmission from animals, by humans, and via environmental routes including water. This paper describes an expert elicitation study conducted by the FERG Source Attribution Task Force to estimate the relative contribution of food to the global burden of diseases commonly transmitted through the consumption of food. We applied structured expert judgment using Cooke's Classical Model to obtain estimates for 14 subregions for the relative contributions of different transmission pathways for eleven diarrheal diseases, seven other infectious diseases and one chemical (lead). Experts were identified through international networks followed by social network sampling. Final selection of experts was based on their experience including international working experience. Enrolled experts were scored on their ability to judge uncertainty accurately and informatively using a series of subject-matter specific 'seed' questions whose answers are unknown to the experts at the time they are interviewed. Trained facilitators elicited the 5th, and 50th and 95th percentile responses to seed questions through telephone interviews. Cooke's Classical Model uses responses to the seed questions to weigh and aggregate expert responses. After this interview, the experts were asked to provide 5th, 50th, and 95th percentile estimates for the 'target' questions regarding disease transmission routes. A total of 72 experts were enrolled in the study. Ten panels were global, meaning that the experts should provide estimates for all 14 subregions, whereas the nine panels were subregional, with experts providing estimates for one or more subregions

World Health Organization Estimates of the Relative Contributions of Food to the Burden of Disease Due to Selected Foodborne Hazards: A Structured Expert Elicitation.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tine Hald

Full Text Available The Foodborne Disease Burden Epidemiology Reference Group (FERG was established in 2007 by the World Health Organization (WHO to estimate the global burden of foodborne diseases (FBDs. This estimation is complicated because most of the hazards causing FBD are not transmitted solely by food; most have several potential exposure routes consisting of transmission from animals, by humans, and via environmental routes including water. This paper describes an expert elicitation study conducted by the FERG Source Attribution Task Force to estimate the relative contribution of food to the global burden of diseases commonly transmitted through the consumption of food.We applied structured expert judgment using Cooke's Classical Model to obtain estimates for 14 subregions for the relative contributions of different transmission pathways for eleven diarrheal diseases, seven other infectious diseases and one chemical (lead. Experts were identified through international networks followed by social network sampling. Final selection of experts was based on their experience including international working experience. Enrolled experts were scored on their ability to judge uncertainty accurately and informatively using a series of subject-matter specific 'seed' questions whose answers are unknown to the experts at the time they are interviewed. Trained facilitators elicited the 5th, and 50th and 95th percentile responses to seed questions through telephone interviews. Cooke's Classical Model uses responses to the seed questions to weigh and aggregate expert responses. After this interview, the experts were asked to provide 5th, 50th, and 95th percentile estimates for the 'target' questions regarding disease transmission routes. A total of 72 experts were enrolled in the study. Ten panels were global, meaning that the experts should provide estimates for all 14 subregions, whereas the nine panels were subregional, with experts providing estimates for one or more

Testing the Limits of Skill Transfer for Scrabble Experts in Behaviour and Brain

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sophia Van Hees

2016-11-01

Full Text Available We investigated transfer of the skills developed by competitive Scrabble players. Previous studies reported superior performance for Scrabble experts on the lexical decision task (LDT, suggesting near transfer of Scrabble skills. Here we investigated the potential for far transfer to a symbol decision task (SDT; in particular, transfer of enhanced long-term working memory for vertically presented stimuli. Our behavioural results showed no evidence for far transfer. Despite years of intensive practice, Scrabble experts were no faster and no more accurate than controls in the SDT. However, our fMRI and EEG data from the SDT suggest that the neural repertoire that Scrabble experts develop supports task performance even outside of the practised domain, in a non-linguistic context. The regions engaged during the SDT were different across groups: controls engaged temporal-frontal regions, whereas Scrabble experts engaged posterior visual and temporal-parietal regions. In Scrabble experts, activity related to Scrabble skill (anagramming scores included regions associated with visual-spatial processing and long-term working memory, and overlapped with regions previously shown to be associated with Scrabble expertise in the near transfer task (LDT. Analysis of source waveforms within these regions showed that participants with higher anagramming scores had larger P300 amplitudes, potentially reflecting greater working memory capacity, or less variability in the participants who perform the task more efficiently. Thus, the neuroimaging results provide evidence of brain transfer in the absence of behavioural transfer, providing new clues about the consequences of long-term training associated with competitive Scrabble expertise.

Brain Mechanisms of Persuasion: How "Expert Power" Modulates Memory and Attitudes

NARCIS (Netherlands)

V. Klucharev (Vasily); A. Smidts (Ale); G. Fernández (Guillén)

2008-01-01

textabstractHuman behavior is affected by various forms of persuasion. The general persuasive effect of high expertise of the communicator, often referred to as "expert power", is well documented. We found that a single exposure to a combination of an expert and an object leads to a long-lasting

Brain mechanisms of persuasion: How 'expert power' modulates memory and attitudes

NARCIS (Netherlands)

V. Klucharev (Vasily); A. Smidts (Ale); G. Fernandez (Guillén)

2008-01-01

textabstractHuman behaviour is affected by various forms of persuasion. The general persuasive effect of high expertise of the communicator, often referred to as 'expert power', is well documented. We found that a single exposure to a combination of an expert and an object leads to a long-lasting

Universal Health Coverage in Francophone Sub-Saharan Africa: Assessment of Global Health Experts' Confidence in Policy Options.

Science.gov (United States)

Paul, Elisabeth; Fecher, Fabienne; Meloni, Remo; van Lerberghe, Wim

2018-05-29

Many countries rely on standard recipes for accelerating progress toward universal health coverage (UHC). With limited generalizable empirical evidence, expert confidence and consensus plays a major role in shaping country policy choices. This article presents an exploratory attempt conducted between April and September 2016 to measure confidence and consensus among a panel of global health experts in terms of the effectiveness and feasibility of a number of policy options commonly proposed for achieving UHC in low- and middle-income countries, such as fee exemptions for certain groups of people, ring-fenced domestic health budgets, and public-private partnerships. To ensure a relative homogeneity of contexts, we focused on French-speaking sub-Saharan Africa. We initially used the Delphi method to arrive at expert consensus, but since no consensus emerged after 2 rounds, we adjusted our approach to a statistical analysis of the results from our questionnaire by measuring the degree of consensus on each policy option through 100 (signifying total consensus) minus the size of the interquartile range of the individual scores. Seventeen global health experts from various backgrounds, but with at least 20 years' experience in the broad region, participated in the 2 rounds of the study. The results provide an initial "mapping" of the opinions of a group of experts and suggest interesting lessons. For the 18 policy options proposed, consensus emerged only on strengthening the supply of quality primary health care services (judged as being effective with a confidence score of 79 and consensus score of 90), and on fee exemptions for the poorest (judged as being fairly easy to implement with a confidence score of 66 and consensus score of 85). For none of the 18 common policy options was there consensus on both potential effectiveness and feasibility, with very diverging opinions concerning 5 policy options. The lack of confidence and consensus within the panel seems to

Towards a Fuzzy Expert System on Toxicological Data Quality Assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Longzhi; Neagu, Daniel; Cronin, Mark T D; Hewitt, Mark; Enoch, Steven J; Madden, Judith C; Przybylak, Katarzyna

2013-01-01

Quality assessment (QA) requires high levels of domain-specific experience and knowledge. QA tasks for toxicological data are usually performed by human experts manually, although a number of quality evaluation schemes have been proposed in the literature. For instance, the most widely utilised Klimisch scheme1 defines four data quality categories in order to tag data instances with respect to their qualities; ToxRTool2 is an extension of the Klimisch approach aiming to increase the transparency and harmonisation of the approach. Note that the processes of QA in many other areas have been automatised by employing expert systems. Briefly, an expert system is a computer program that uses a knowledge base built upon human expertise, and an inference engine that mimics the reasoning processes of human experts to infer new statements from incoming data. In particular, expert systems have been extended to deal with the uncertainty of information by representing uncertain information (such as linguistic terms) as fuzzy sets under the framework of fuzzy set theory and performing inferences upon fuzzy sets according to fuzzy arithmetic. This paper presents an experimental fuzzy expert system for toxicological data QA which is developed on the basis of the Klimisch approach and the ToxRTool in an effort to illustrate the power of expert systems to toxicologists, and to examine if fuzzy expert systems are a viable solution for QA of toxicological data. Such direction still faces great difficulties due to the well-known common challenge of toxicological data QA that "five toxicologists may have six opinions". In the meantime, this challenge may offer an opportunity for expert systems because the construction and refinement of the knowledge base could be a converging process of different opinions which is of significant importance for regulatory policy making under the regulation of REACH, though a consensus may never be reached. Also, in order to facilitate the implementation

Expert - Non-expert differences in visual behaviour during alpine slalom skiing.

Science.gov (United States)

Decroix, Marjolein; Wazir, Mohd Rozilee Wazir Norjali; Zeuwts, Linus; Deconinck, Frederik F J A; Lenoir, Matthieu; Vansteenkiste, Pieter

2017-10-01

The aim of this study was to investigate visual behaviour of expert and non-expert ski athletes during an alpine slalom. Fourteen non-experts and five expert slalom skiers completed an alpine slalom course in an indoor ski slope while wearing a head-mounted eye tracking device. Experts completed the slalom clearly faster than non-experts, but no significant difference was found in timing and position of the turn initiation. Although both groups already looked at future obstacles approximately 0,5s before passing the upcoming pole, the higher speed of experts implied that they shifted gaze spatially earlier in the bend than non-experts. Furthermore, experts focussed more on the second next pole while non-expert slalom skiers looked more to the snow surface immediately in front of their body. No difference was found in the fixation frequency, average fixation duration, and quiet eye duration between both groups. These results suggest that experts focus on the timing of their actions while non-experts still need to pay attention to the execution of these actions. These results also might suggest that ski trainers should instruct non-experts and experts to focus on the next pole and, shift their gaze to the second next pole shortly before reaching it. Based on the current study it seems unadvisable to instruct slalom skiers to look several poles ahead during the actual slalom. However, future research should test if these results still hold on a real outdoor slope, including multiple vertical gates. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An expert system based software sizing tool, phase 2

Science.gov (United States)

Friedlander, David

1990-01-01

A software tool was developed for predicting the size of a future computer program at an early stage in its development. The system is intended to enable a user who is not expert in Software Engineering to estimate software size in lines of source code with an accuracy similar to that of an expert, based on the program's functional specifications. The project was planned as a knowledge based system with a field prototype as the goal of Phase 2 and a commercial system planned for Phase 3. The researchers used techniques from Artificial Intelligence and knowledge from human experts and existing software from NASA's COSMIC database. They devised a classification scheme for the software specifications, and a small set of generic software components that represent complexity and apply to large classes of programs. The specifications are converted to generic components by a set of rules and the generic components are input to a nonlinear sizing function which makes the final prediction. The system developed for this project predicted code sizes from the database with a bias factor of 1.06 and a fluctuation factor of 1.77, an accuracy similar to that of human experts but without their significant optimistic bias.

Expert system for quality control in the INIS database

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Todeschini, C.; Tolstenkov, A.

1990-05-01

An expert system developed to identify input items to INIS database with a high probability of containing errors is described. The system employs a Knowledge Base constructed by the interpretation of a large number of intellectual choices or expert decisions made by human indexers and incorporated in the INIS database. On the basis of the descriptor indexing, the system checks the correctness of the categorization. A notable feature of the system is its capability of self improvement by the continuous updating of the Knowledge Base. The expert system has also been found to be extremely useful in identifying documents with poor indexing. 3 refs, 9 figs

Expert system for quality control in the INIS database

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Todeschini, C; Tolstenkov, A [International Atomic Energy Agency, Vienna (Austria)

1990-05-01

An expert system developed to identify input items to INIS database with a high probability of containing errors is described. The system employs a Knowledge Base constructed by the interpretation of a large number of intellectual choices or expert decisions made by human indexers and incorporated in the INIS database. On the basis of the descriptor indexing, the system checks the correctness of the categorization. A notable feature of the system is its capability of self improvement by the continuous updating of the Knowledge Base. The expert system has also been found to be extremely useful in identifying documents with poor indexing. 3 refs, 9 figs.

A literature review of expert problem solving using analogy

OpenAIRE

Mair, C; Martincova, M; Shepperd, MJ

2009-01-01

We consider software project cost estimation from a problem solving perspective. Taking a cognitive psychological approach, we argue that the algorithmic basis for CBR tools is not representative of human problem solving and this mismatch could account for inconsistent results. We describe the fundamentals of problem solving, focusing on experts solving ill-defined problems. This is supplemented by a systematic literature review of empirical studies of expert problem solving of non-trivial pr...

Multipurpose expert-robot system model for control, diagnosis, maintenance, and repairs at the steam generators of the NPP

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Popa, I.

1994-01-01

The paper presents the model concept for a multipurpose expert-robot system for control, diagnosis, forecast, maintenance, and repairs at the steam generators of CANDU type nuclear power plants. The system has two separate parts: the expert system and the robot (manipulator) system. These parts compose a hierarchic structure with the expert system on the upper level. The expert system has a blackboard architecture, to which tree interfaces with the robot system, with the control system of the NPP and with the methods and techniques of control, maintenance and repairs system of the steam generator are added. Due to complex nature of its activities the expert-robot system model combines the deterministic type reasons with probabilistic, fuzzy, and neural-networks type ones. The information that enter the expert system comes from the robot system, from process, from user, and human expert. The information that enter robot system comes from the expert system, from the human operator (when connected) and from process. Control maintenance and repair operations take place by means of the robot system that can be monitored either directly by the expert system or by the human operator who follows its activity. All these activities are performed in parallel with the adequate information of the expert system directly, by the human operator, about the status parameters and, possibly, operating parameters of the steam generator components. The expert-robot system can work independently, but it can be connected and integrated in the control system of NPP, to take over and develop some of its functions. The activities concerning diagnosis and characterization of the state of steam generator components subsequent to control, as well as the forecast of their future behavior, are performed by means of the expert system. Due to these characteristics the expert-robot system can be used successfully in personnel training activities. (Author)

An examination of expert systems activities within the nuclear industry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bernard, J.A.; Washio, Takashi.

1988-01-01

This paper provides an overview of a detailed evaluation that the authors recently completed on expert systems applications within the nuclear industry. That evaluation examined the motivation for utilizing expert systems, identified the areas to which they were being applied, and provided an assessment of their utility. Listed here are some of the salient findings of that report. (1) Utilities are developing their own artificial intelligence tools rather than using commercial products. (2) Few expert systems are being developed for the express purpose of capturing human expertise. (3) A number of successful expert systems have been developed to assist in plant design, management, and maintenance scheduling. (4) Interactive diagnostic systems are being developed for the analysis of physical processes that vary slowly. (5) Real-time diagnostic expert systems are currently at the cutting edge of the technology. (6) Operator adviser and emergency response expert systems constitute ∼25% of the total. (7) Research on the use of expert systems for reactor control is quite active. (8) Too few quantitative evaluations of the benefits of expert systems to reactor operators have been performed. The operator's need is for timely, factual information on plant status. Hence, the true challenge to expert systems is real-time diagnostics

Ready for OR or not? Human reader supplements Eyesi scoring in cataract surgical skills assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Selvander M

2013-10-01

Full Text Available Madeleine Selvander,1,2 Peter Åsman11Department of Clinical Sciences, Malmö: Ophthalmology, Lund University, Malmö, Sweden; 2Practicum Clinical Skills Centre, Skåne University Hospital, Malmö, SwedenPurpose: To compare the internal computer-based scoring with human-based video scoring of cataract modules in the Eyesi virtual reality intraocular surgical simulator, a comparative case series was conducted at the Department of Clinical Sciences – Ophthalmology, Lund University, Skåne University Hospital, Malmö, Sweden.Methods: Seven cataract surgeons and 17 medical students performed one video-recorded trial with each of the capsulorhexis, hydromaneuvers, and phacoemulsification divide-and-conquer modules. For each module, the simulator calculated an overall score for the performance ranging from 0 to 100. Two experienced masked cataract surgeons analyzed each video using the Objective Structured Assessment of Cataract Surgical Skill (OSACSS for individual models and modified Objective Structured Assessment of Surgical Skills (OSATS for all three modules together. The average of the two assessors' scores for each tool was used as the video-based performance score. The ability to discriminate surgeons from naive individuals using the simulator score and the video score, respectively, was compared using receiver operating characteristic (ROC curves.Results: The ROC areas for simulator score did not differ from 0.5 (random for hydromaneuvers and phacoemulsification modules, yielding unacceptably poor discrimination. OSACSS video scores all showed good ROC areas significantly different from 0.5. The OSACSS video score was also superior compared to the simulator score for the phacoemulsification procedure: ROC area 0.945 vs 0.664 for simulator score (P = 0.010. Corresponding values for capsulorhexis were 0.887 vs 0.761 (P = 0.056 and for hydromaneuvers 0.817 vs 0.571 (P = 0.052 for the video scores and simulator scores, respectively.The ROC

The role of human-at-work systems in business sustainability: perspectives based on expert and qualified production workers in a manufacturing enterprise.

Science.gov (United States)

Genaidy, Ash M; Rinder, Maria M; Sequeira, Reynold; A-Rehim, Amal

2010-04-01

and enterprise levels, in terms of organisational/social/technological environment. This is particularly noted for the organisational environment. The compatibility values obtained for the experienced domains mirror those obtained for acting domains. The overall workload was assessed as requiring major redesign during the day shift and needing added responsibilities for the night shift according to both expert and qualified workers. The assessment of qualified workers is comparable with that of expert workers for the job content and immediate surroundings. Differences are more observed for process- and enterprise-based factors; thereby, providing company management different perspectives in order to devise organisational strategies conducive for optimum human and corporate health and pointing to the probable interactions of the different systems impacting individual and enterprise performance. STATEMENT OF RELEVANCE: This research examines similarities and differences between qualified and expert workers in their assessment of the worker-work environment interface. The contribution to improved understanding of the complex interactions of human-at-work and enterprise systems should be beneficial to organisations in their quest to remain competitive in a global economy.

The American Nurses Association Code of Ethics: a reflection on the ethics of respect and human dignity with nurse as expert.

Science.gov (United States)

Milton, Constance L

2003-10-01

The American Nurses Association Code of Ethics for Nurses calls for the nurse to practice with compassion and respect for every individual. What are the ethics and challenges of practicing professional nursing with expertise and educating a new generation of nurses while incorporating the interpretive statements into practice? This column differentiates the traditional biomedical views on human dignity and respect while exploring the embedded ethics of respect and self-determination and what it truly means to be an expert of nursing from the theoretical perspective of the human becoming school of thought.

The lod score method.

Science.gov (United States)

Rice, J P; Saccone, N L; Corbett, J

2001-01-01

The lod score method originated in a seminal article by Newton Morton in 1955. The method is broadly concerned with issues of power and the posterior probability of linkage, ensuring that a reported linkage has a high probability of being a true linkage. In addition, the method is sequential, so that pedigrees or lod curves may be combined from published reports to pool data for analysis. This approach has been remarkably successful for 50 years in identifying disease genes for Mendelian disorders. After discussing these issues, we consider the situation for complex disorders, where the maximum lod score (MLS) statistic shares some of the advantages of the traditional lod score approach but is limited by unknown power and the lack of sharing of the primary data needed to optimally combine analytic results. We may still learn from the lod score method as we explore new methods in molecular biology and genetic analysis to utilize the complete human DNA sequence and the cataloging of all human genes.

The neural organization of perception in chess experts.

Science.gov (United States)

Krawczyk, Daniel C; Boggan, Amy L; McClelland, M Michelle; Bartlett, James C

2011-07-20

The human visual system responds to expertise, and it has been suggested that regions that process faces also process other objects of expertise including chess boards by experts. We tested whether chess and face processing overlap in brain activity using fMRI. Chess experts and novices exhibited face selective areas, but these regions showed no selectivity to chess configurations relative to other stimuli. We next compared neural responses to chess and to scrambled chess displays to isolate areas relevant to expertise. Areas within the posterior cingulate, orbitofrontal cortex, and right temporal cortex were active in this comparison in experts over novices. We also compared chess and face responses within the posterior cingulate and found this area responsive to chess only in experts. These findings indicate that the configurations in chess are not strongly processed by face-selective regions that are selective for faces in individuals who have expertise in both domains. Further, the area most consistently involved in chess did not show overlap with faces. Overall, these results suggest that expert visual processing may be similar at the level of recognition, but need not show the same neural correlates. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Automatic ECG quality scoring methodology: mimicking human annotators

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Johannesen, Lars; Galeotti, Loriano

2012-01-01

An algorithm to determine the quality of electrocardiograms (ECGs) can enable inexperienced nurses and paramedics to record ECGs of sufficient diagnostic quality. Previously, we proposed an algorithm for determining if ECG recordings are of acceptable quality, which was entered in the PhysioNet Challenge 2011. In the present work, we propose an improved two-step algorithm, which first rejects ECGs with macroscopic errors (signal absent, large voltage shifts or saturation) and subsequently quantifies the noise (baseline, powerline or muscular noise) on a continuous scale. The performance of the improved algorithm was evaluated using the PhysioNet Challenge database (1500 ECGs rated by humans for signal quality). We achieved a classification accuracy of 92.3% on the training set and 90.0% on the test set. The improved algorithm is capable of detecting ECGs with macroscopic errors and giving the user a score of the overall quality. This allows the user to assess the degree of noise and decide if it is acceptable depending on the purpose of the recording. (paper)

An Expert System for Supporting the Design and Selection of Mechanical Equipment for Recreational Crafts

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

T. Gonciarz

2014-06-01

Full Text Available Expert Systems can be defined as computer programs, whose main task is to simulate a human expert, usually in a narrow field of expertise. Expert Systems have experienced tremendous growth and popularity since their commercial introduction in the early 1970’s. Today, Expert Systems are used in business, science, engineering, manufacturing and other engineering applications such as planning, scheduling, diagnosing equipment failures and are used in almost every stage of the manufacturing process and also in medicine and many other fields. Expert Systems belong to the field of artificial intelligence. An intelligent computer program that uses knowledge and inference procedures to solve problems that are difficult enough to require significant human expertise for the solution. The purpose of this paper is to present an Expert System which assists with the design of yachts and supports the selection of mechanical equipment for yachts and includes knowledge in the field of yachting engineering. Using the presented Expert System reduces the time during the design and production preparation process.

A human error probability estimate methodology based on fuzzy inference and expert judgment on nuclear plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nascimento, C.S. do; Mesquita, R.N. de

2009-01-01

Recent studies point human error as an important factor for many industrial and nuclear accidents: Three Mile Island (1979), Bhopal (1984), Chernobyl and Challenger (1986) are classical examples. Human contribution to these accidents may be better understood and analyzed by using Human Reliability Analysis (HRA), which has being taken as an essential part on Probabilistic Safety Analysis (PSA) of nuclear plants. Both HRA and PSA depend on Human Error Probability (HEP) for a quantitative analysis. These probabilities are extremely affected by the Performance Shaping Factors (PSF), which has a direct effect on human behavior and thus shape HEP according with specific environment conditions and personal individual characteristics which are responsible for these actions. This PSF dependence raises a great problem on data availability as turn these scarcely existent database too much generic or too much specific. Besides this, most of nuclear plants do not keep historical records of human error occurrences. Therefore, in order to overcome this occasional data shortage, a methodology based on Fuzzy Inference and expert judgment was employed in this paper in order to determine human error occurrence probabilities and to evaluate PSF's on performed actions by operators in a nuclear power plant (IEA-R1 nuclear reactor). Obtained HEP values were compared with reference tabled data used on current literature in order to show method coherence and valid approach. This comparison leads to a conclusion that this work results are able to be employed both on HRA and PSA enabling efficient prospection of plant safety conditions, operational procedures and local working conditions potential improvements (author)

Experimental applications of an expert system to operator problem solving in process control

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nelson, W.R.; Jenkins, J.P.

1985-01-01

The United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) has sponsored a program to assess the effectiveness of expert systems for nuclear reactor operators. The project has included two human factors experimental evaluations of the Response Tree expert system, a prototype expert system for helping nuclear reactor operators respond to emergency conditions. This paper discusses the Response Tree expert system, the experiments which have been performed to test its effectiveness, and the results of the experiments. Reference is made to the accident at TMI. 12 refs

Expert ease

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1984-04-01

Expert-ease allows the most inexperienced of computer users to build an expert system in a matter of hours. It is nothing more or less than a computer based problem-solving system. It allows the expert to preserve his or her knowledge in the form of rules, which can be applied to problems put to the system by the non-expert. The crucial piece of software at the heart of Expert-Ease extracts rules from data, and is called the analogue concept learning system. It was developed by Intelligent Terminals Ltd. and supplied to Export Software International to be incorporated into a commercially attractive package for business users. The resulting product runs on the Act Sirius and the IBM PC and compatibles. It is a well conceived and polished product with a popular appeal that should ensure widespread acceptance even at a cost of >1500 plus vat.

Expert System

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hildebrandt, Thomas Troels; Cattani, Gian Luca

2016-01-01

An expert system is a computer system for inferring knowledge from a knowledge base, typically by using a set of inference rules. When the concept of expert systems was introduced at Stanford University in the early 1970s, the knowledge base was an unstructured set of facts. Today the knowledge b...... for the application of expert systems, but also raises issues regarding privacy and legal liability....

Personalized Risk Scoring for Critical Care Prognosis Using Mixtures of Gaussian Processes.

Science.gov (United States)

Alaa, Ahmed M; Yoon, Jinsung; Hu, Scott; van der Schaar, Mihaela

2018-01-01

In this paper, we develop a personalized real-time risk scoring algorithm that provides timely and granular assessments for the clinical acuity of ward patients based on their (temporal) lab tests and vital signs; the proposed risk scoring system ensures timely intensive care unit admissions for clinically deteriorating patients. The risk scoring system is based on the idea of sequential hypothesis testing under an uncertain time horizon. The system learns a set of latent patient subtypes from the offline electronic health record data, and trains a mixture of Gaussian Process experts, where each expert models the physiological data streams associated with a specific patient subtype. Transfer learning techniques are used to learn the relationship between a patient's latent subtype and her static admission information (e.g., age, gender, transfer status, ICD-9 codes, etc). Experiments conducted on data from a heterogeneous cohort of 6321 patients admitted to Ronald Reagan UCLA medical center show that our score significantly outperforms the currently deployed risk scores, such as the Rothman index, MEWS, APACHE, and SOFA scores, in terms of timeliness, true positive rate, and positive predictive value. Our results reflect the importance of adopting the concepts of personalized medicine in critical care settings; significant accuracy and timeliness gains can be achieved by accounting for the patients' heterogeneity. The proposed risk scoring methodology can confer huge clinical and social benefits on a massive number of critically ill inpatients who exhibit adverse outcomes including, but not limited to, cardiac arrests, respiratory arrests, and septic shocks.

Using Expert Systems To Build Cognitive Simulations.

Science.gov (United States)

Jonassen, David H.; Wang, Sherwood

2003-01-01

Cognitive simulations are runnable computer programs for modeling human cognitive activities. A case study is reported where expert systems were used as a formalism for modeling metacognitive processes in a seminar. Building cognitive simulations engages intensive introspection, ownership and meaning making in learners who build them. (Author/AEF)

Examining Reliability and Validity of an Online Score (ALiEM AIR) for Rating Free Open Access Medical Education Resources.

Science.gov (United States)

Chan, Teresa Man-Yee; Grock, Andrew; Paddock, Michael; Kulasegaram, Kulamakan; Yarris, Lalena M; Lin, Michelle

2016-12-01

Since 2014, Academic Life in Emergency Medicine (ALiEM) has used the Approved Instructional Resources (AIR) score to critically appraise online content. The primary goals of this study are to determine the interrater reliability (IRR) of the ALiEM AIR rating score and determine its correlation with expert educator gestalt. We also determine the minimum number of educator-raters needed to achieve acceptable reliability. Eight educators each rated 83 online educational posts with the ALiEM AIR scale. Items include accuracy, usage of evidence-based medicine, referencing, utility, and the Best Evidence in Emergency Medicine rating score. A generalizability study was conducted to determine IRR and rating variance contributions of facets such as rater, blogs, posts, and topic. A randomized selection of 40 blog posts previously rated through ALiEM AIR was then rated again by a blinded group of expert medical educators according to their gestalt. Their gestalt impression was subsequently correlated with the ALiEM AIR score. The IRR for the ALiEM AIR rating scale was 0.81 during the 6-month pilot period. Decision studies showed that at least 9 raters were required to achieve this reliability. Spearman correlations between mean AIR score and the mean expert gestalt ratings were 0.40 for recommendation for learners and 0.35 for their colleagues. The ALiEM AIR scale is a moderately to highly reliable, 5-question tool when used by medical educators for rating online resources. The score displays a fair correlation with expert educator gestalt in regard to the quality of the resources. The score displays a fair correlation with educator gestalt. Copyright © 2016 American College of Emergency Physicians. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

ANAPPRES: An expert system for interference well-test analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Arellano, V.M.; Iglesias, E.R.; Arellano, J.; Schwarzblat, M.

1988-01-01

We present ANAPPRES V1.0, the first version of a computerized expert system capable of analyzing constant- and variable-flowrate interference tests, in which there is one active well and an arbitrary number of observation wells, in liquid-saturated homogeneous reservoirs. ANAPPRES successfully couples mathematical models, optimization techniques, heuristic knowledge and computerized graphics, a combination not often found in published expert systems. Its main advantages are that it is user friendly, requires essentially no experience on the part of the analyst, eliminates subjectivity associated with earlier techniques of analysis, can handle complex cases and large data sets, completes the analysis of even the most complex cases (including plotting the results) in one run, and is significantly faster than a human expert.

Rule - based Fault Diagnosis Expert System for Wind Turbine

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Deng Xiao-Wen

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Under the trend of increasing installed capacity of wind power, the intelligent fault diagnosis of wind turbine is of great significance to the safe and efficient operation of wind farms. Based on the knowledge of fault diagnosis of wind turbines, this paper builds expert system diagnostic knowledge base by using confidence production rules and expert system self-learning method. In Visual Studio 2013 platform, C # language is selected and ADO.NET technology is used to access the database. Development of Fault Diagnosis Expert System for Wind Turbine. The purpose of this paper is to realize on-line diagnosis of wind turbine fault through human-computer interaction, and to improve the diagnostic capability of the system through the continuous improvement of the knowledge base.

Expert and competent non-expert visual cues during simulated diagnosis in intensive care.

Science.gov (United States)

McCormack, Clare; Wiggins, Mark W; Loveday, Thomas; Festa, Marino

2014-01-01

The aim of this study was to examine the information acquisition strategies of expert and competent non-expert intensive care physicians during two simulated diagnostic scenarios involving respiratory distress in an infant. Specifically, the information acquisition performance of six experts and 12 competent non-experts was examined using an eye-tracker during the initial 90 s of the assessment of the patient. The results indicated that, in comparison to competent non-experts, experts recorded longer mean fixations, irrespective of the scenario. When the dwell times were examined against specific areas of interest, the results revealed that competent non-experts recorded greater overall dwell times on the nurse, where experts recorded relatively greater dwell times on the head and face of the manikin. In the context of the scenarios, experts recorded differential dwell times, spending relatively more time on the head and face during the seizure scenario than during the coughing scenario. The differences evident between experts and competent non-experts were interpreted as evidence of the relative availability of task-specific cues or heuristics in memory that might direct the process of information acquisition amongst expert physicians. The implications are discussed for the training and assessment of diagnostic skills.

Relationship between automation trust and operator performance for the novice and expert in spacecraft rendezvous and docking (RVD).

Science.gov (United States)

Niu, Jianwei; Geng, He; Zhang, Yijing; Du, Xiaoping

2018-09-01

Operator trust in automation is a crucial factor influencing its use and operational performance. However, the relationship between automation trust and performance remains poorly understood and requires further investigation. The objective of this paper is to explore the difference in trust and performance on automation-aided spacecraft rendezvous and docking (RVD) between the novice and the expert and to investigate the relationship between automation trust and performance as well. We employed a two-factor mixed design, with training skill (novice and expert) and automation mode (manual RVD and automation aided RVD) serving as the two factors. Twenty participants, 10 novices and 10 experts, were recruited to conduct six RVD tasks for two automation levels. After the tasks, operator performance was recorded by the desktop hand-held docking training equipment. Operator trust was also measured by a 12-items questionnaire at the beginning and end of each trial. As a result, automation narrowed the performance gap significantly between the novice and the expert, and the automation trust showed a marginally significant difference between the novice and the expert. Furthermore, the result demonstrated that the attitude angle control error of the expert was related to the total trust score, whereas other automation performance indicators were not related to the total score of trust. However, automation performance was related to the dimensions of trust, such as entrust, harmful, and dependable. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Correlation of emphysema score with perceived malignancy of pulmonary nodules: a multi-observer study using the LIDC-IDRI CT lung database

Science.gov (United States)

Wiemker, Rafael; Bülow, Thomas; Blaffert, Thomas; Dharaiya, Ekta

2009-02-01

Presence of emphysema is recognized to be one of the single most significant risk factors in risk models for the prediction of lung cancer. Therefore, an automatically computed emphysema score would be a prime candidate as an additional numerical feature for computer aided diagnosis (CADx) for indeterminate pulmonary nodules. We have applied several histogram-based emphysema scores to 460 thoracic CT scans from the IDRI CT lung image database, and analyzed the emphysema scores in conjunction with 3000 nodule malignancy ratings of 1232 pulmonary nodules made by expert observers. Despite the emphysema being a known risk factor, we have not found any impact on the readers' malignancy rating of nodules found in a patient with higher emphysema score. We have also not found any correlation between the number of expert-detected nodules in a patient and his emphysema score, or the relative craniocaudal location of the nodules and their malignancy rating. The inter-observer agreement of the expert ratings was excellent on nodule diameter (as derived from manual delineations), good for calcification, and only modest for malignancy and shape descriptions such as spiculation, lobulation, margin, etc.

Semi-automated scoring of triple-probe FISH in human sperm using confocal microscopy.

Science.gov (United States)

Branch, Francesca; Nguyen, GiaLinh; Porter, Nicholas; Young, Heather A; Martenies, Sheena E; McCray, Nathan; Deloid, Glen; Popratiloff, Anastas; Perry, Melissa J

2017-09-01

Structural and numerical sperm chromosomal aberrations result from abnormal meiosis and are directly linked to infertility. Any live births that arise from aneuploid conceptuses can result in syndromes such as Kleinfelter, Turners, XYY and Edwards. Multi-probe fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) is commonly used to study sperm aneuploidy, however manual FISH scoring in sperm samples is labor-intensive and introduces errors. Automated scoring methods are continuously evolving. One challenging aspect for optimizing automated sperm FISH scoring has been the overlap in excitation and emission of the fluorescent probes used to enumerate the chromosomes of interest. Our objective was to demonstrate the feasibility of combining confocal microscopy and spectral imaging with high-throughput methods for accurately measuring sperm aneuploidy. Our approach used confocal microscopy to analyze numerical chromosomal abnormalities in human sperm using enhanced slide preparation and rigorous semi-automated scoring methods. FISH for chromosomes X, Y, and 18 was conducted to determine sex chromosome disomy in sperm nuclei. Application of online spectral linear unmixing was used for effective separation of four fluorochromes while decreasing data acquisition time. Semi-automated image processing, segmentation, classification, and scoring were performed on 10 slides using custom image processing and analysis software and results were compared with manual methods. No significant differences in disomy frequencies were seen between the semi automated and manual methods. Samples treated with pepsin were observed to have reduced background autofluorescence and more uniform distribution of cells. These results demonstrate that semi-automated methods using spectral imaging on a confocal platform are a feasible approach for analyzing numerical chromosomal aberrations in sperm, and are comparable to manual methods. © 2017 International Society for Advancement of Cytometry. © 2017

[The application of Delphi method in improving the score table for the hygienic quantifying and classification of hotels].

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Zi-yun; Liu, Yong-quan; Wang, Hong-bo; Zheng, Yang; Wu, Qi; Yang, Xia; Wu, Yong-wei; Zhao, Yi-ming

2009-04-01

By means of Delphi method and expert panel consultations, to choose suitable indicators and improve the score table for classifying the hygienic condition of hotels so that it can be widely used at nationwide. A two-round Delphi consultation was held to choose suitable indicators among 78 experts from 18 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions. The suitable indicators were selected according to the importance recognized by experts. The average length of service in public health of the experts was (21.08 +/- 5.78) years and the average coefficient of experts' authorities C(r) was 0.89 +/- 0.07. The response rates of the two-round consultation were 98.72% (77/78) and 100.00% (77/77). The average feedback time were (8.49 +/- 4.48) d, (5.86 +/- 2.28) d, and the difference between two rounds was statistically significant (t = 4.60, P hotels was composed of three first-class indicators (hygienic management, hygienic facilities and hygienic practices) and 36 second-class indicators. The weight coefficients of the three first-class indicators were 0.35, 0.34, 0.31. Delphi method might be used in a large-scale consultation among experts and be propitious to improve the score table for the hygienic quantifying and classification.

Comparing TACOM scores with subjective workload scores measured by NASA-TLX technique

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Park, Jin Kyun; Jung, Won Dea

2006-01-01

It is a well-known fact that a large portion of human performance related problems was attributed to the complexity of tasks. Therefore, managing the complexity of tasks is a prerequisite for safety-critical systems such as nuclear power plants (NPPs), because the consequence of a degraded human performance could be more severe than in other systems. From this concern, it is necessary to quantify the complexity of emergency tasks that are stipulated in procedures, because most tasks of NPPs have been specified in the form of procedures. For this reason, Park et al. developed a task complexity measure called TACOM. In this study, in order to confirm the validity of the TACOM measure, subjective workload scores that were measured by the NASA-TLX technique were compared with the associated TACOM scores. To do this, 23 emergency tasks of the reference NPPs were selected, and then subjective workload scores for these emergency tasks were quantified by 18 operators who had a sufficient knowledge about emergency operations

Comparing TACOM scores with subjective workload scores measured by NASA-TLX technique

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Park, Jin Kyun; Jung, Won Dea [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Taejon (Korea, Republic of)

2006-07-01

It is a well-known fact that a large portion of human performance related problems was attributed to the complexity of tasks. Therefore, managing the complexity of tasks is a prerequisite for safety-critical systems such as nuclear power plants (NPPs), because the consequence of a degraded human performance could be more severe than in other systems. From this concern, it is necessary to quantify the complexity of emergency tasks that are stipulated in procedures, because most tasks of NPPs have been specified in the form of procedures. For this reason, Park et al. developed a task complexity measure called TACOM. In this study, in order to confirm the validity of the TACOM measure, subjective workload scores that were measured by the NASA-TLX technique were compared with the associated TACOM scores. To do this, 23 emergency tasks of the reference NPPs were selected, and then subjective workload scores for these emergency tasks were quantified by 18 operators who had a sufficient knowledge about emergency operations.

Translation and validation of the new version of the Knee Society Score - The 2011 KS Score - into Brazilian Portuguese.

Science.gov (United States)

Silva, Adriana Lucia Pastore E; Croci, Alberto Tesconi; Gobbi, Riccardo Gomes; Hinckel, Betina Bremer; Pecora, José Ricardo; Demange, Marco Kawamura

2017-01-01

Translation, cultural adaptation, and validation of the new version of the Knee Society Score - The 2011 KS Score - into Brazilian Portuguese and verification of its measurement properties, reproducibility, and validity. In 2012, the new version of the Knee Society Score was developed and validated. This scale comprises four separate subscales: (a) objective knee score (seven items: 100 points); (b) patient satisfaction score (five items: 40 points); (c) patient expectations score (three items: 15 points); and (d) functional activity score (19 items: 100 points). A total of 90 patients aged 55-85 years were evaluated in a clinical cross-sectional study. The pre-operative translated version was applied to patients with TKA referral, and the post-operative translated version was applied to patients who underwent TKA. Each patient answered the same questionnaire twice and was evaluated by two experts in orthopedic knee surgery. Evaluations were performed pre-operatively and three, six, or 12 months post-operatively. The reliability of the questionnaire was evaluated using the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) between the two applications. Internal consistency was evaluated using Cronbach's alpha. The ICC found no difference between the means of the pre-operative, three-month, and six-month post-operative evaluations between sub-scale items. The Brazilian Portuguese version of The 2011 KS Score is a valid and reliable instrument for objective and subjective evaluation of the functionality of Brazilian patients who undergo TKA and revision TKA.

Expert and Competent Non-Expert Visual Cues during Simulated Diagnosis in Intensive Care

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Clare eMcCormack

2014-08-01

Full Text Available The aim of this study was to examine the information acquisition strategies of expert and competent non-expert intensive care physicians during two simulated diagnostic scenarios involving respiratory distress in an infant. Specifically, the information acquisition performance of six experts and 12 competent non-experts was examined using an eye tracker during the initial 90 seconds of the assessment of the patient. The results indicated that, in comparison to competent non-experts, experts recorded longer mean fixations, irrespective of the scenario. When the dwell times were examined against specific areas of interest, the results revealed that competent non-experts recorded greater overall dwell times on the nurse, where experts recorded relatively greater dwell times on the head and face of the manikin. In the context of the scenarios, experts recorded differential dwell times, spending relatively more time on the head and face during the seizure scenario than during the coughing scenario. The differences evident between experts and competent non-experts were interpreted as evidence of the relative availability of task-specific cues or heuristics in memory that might direct the process of information acquisition amongst expert physicians. The implications are discussed for the training and assessment of diagnostic skills.

Scoring of radiation-induced micronuclei in cytokinesis-blocked human lymphocytes by automated image analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Verhaegen, F.; Seuntjens, J.; Thierens, H.

1994-01-01

The micronucleus assay in human lymphocytes is, at present, frequently used to assess chromosomal damage caused by ionizing radiation or mutagens. Manual scoring of micronuclei (MN) by trained personnel is very time-consuming, tiring work, and the results depend on subjective interpretation of scoring criteria. More objective scoring can be accomplished only if the test can be automated. Furthermore, an automated system allows scoring of large numbers of cells, thereby increasing the statistical significance of the results. This is of special importance for screening programs for low doses of chromosome-damaging agents. In this paper, the first results of our effort to automate the micronucleus assay with an image-analysis system are represented. The method we used is described in detail, and the results are compared to those of other groups. Our system is able to detect 88% of the binucleated lymphocytes on the slides. The procedure consists of a fully automated localization of binucleated cells and counting of the MN within these cells, followed by a simple and fast manual operation in which the false positives are removed. Preliminary measurements for blood samples irradiated with a dose of 1 Gy X-rays indicate that the automated system can find 89% ± 12% of the micronuclei within the binucleated cells compared to a manual screening. 18 refs., 8 figs., 1 tab

Expert judgment and uncertainty regarding the protection of imperiled species.

Science.gov (United States)

Heeren, Alexander; Karns, Gabriel; Bruskotter, Jeremy; Toman, Eric; Wilson, Robyn; Szarek, Harmony

2017-06-01

Decisions concerning the appropriate listing status of species under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA) can be controversial even among conservationists. These decisions may determine whether a species persists in the near term and have long-lasting social and political ramifications. Given the ESA's mandate that such decisions be based on the best available science, it is important to examine what factors contribute to experts' judgments concerning the listing of species. We examined how a variety of factors (such as risk perception, value orientations, and norms) influenced experts' judgments concerning the appropriate listing status of the grizzly bear (Ursus arctos horribilis) population in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. Experts were invited to complete an online survey examining their perceptions of the threats grizzly bears face and their listing recommendation. Although experts' assessments of the threats to this species were strongly correlated with their recommendations for listing status, this relationship did not exist when other cognitive factors were included in the model. Specifically, values related to human use of wildlife and norms (i.e., a respondent's expectation of peers' assessments) were most influential in listing status recommendations. These results suggest that experts' decisions about listing, like all human decisions, are subject to the use of heuristics (i.e., decision shortcuts). An understanding of how heuristics and related biases affect decisions under uncertainty can help inform decision making about threatened and endangered species and may be useful in designing effective processes for protection of imperiled species. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

Expert System Control of Plant Growth in an Enclosed Space

Science.gov (United States)

May, George; Lanoue, Mark; Bathel, Matthew; Ryan, Robert E.

2008-01-01

The Expert System is an enclosed, controlled environment for growing plants, which incorporates a computerized, knowledge-based software program that is designed to capture the knowledge, experience, and problem-solving skills of one or more human experts in a particular discipline. The Expert System is trained to analyze crop/plant status, to monitor the condition of the plants and the environment, and to adjust operational parameters to optimize the plant-growth process. This system is intended to provide a way to remotely control plant growth with little or no human intervention. More specifically, the term control implies an autonomous method for detecting plant states such as health (biomass) or stress and then for recommending and implementing cultivation and/or remediation to optimize plant growth and to minimize consumption of energy and nutrients. Because of difficulties associated with delivering energy and nutrients remotely, a key feature of this Expert System is its ability to minimize this effort and to achieve optimum growth while taking into account the diverse range of environmental considerations that exist in an enclosed environment. The plant-growth environment for the Expert System could be made from a variety of structures, including a greenhouse, an underground cavern, or another enclosed chamber. Imaging equipment positioned within or around the chamber provides spatially distributed crop/plant-growth information. Sensors mounted in the chamber provide data and information pertaining to environmental conditions that could affect plant development. Lamps in the growth environment structure supply illumination, and other additional equipment in the chamber supplies essential nutrients and chemicals.

SLIM-MAUD: an approach to assessing human error probabilities using structured expert judgment. Volume II. Detailed analysis of the technical issues

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Embrey, D.E.; Humphreys, P.; Rosa, E.A.; Kirwan, B.; Rea, K.

1984-07-01

This two-volume report presents the procedures and analyses performed in developing an approach for structuring expert judgments to estimate human error probabilities. Volume I presents an overview of work performed in developing the approach: SLIM-MAUD (Success Likelihood Index Methodology, implemented through the use of an interactive computer program called MAUD-Multi-Attribute Utility Decomposition). Volume II provides a more detailed analysis of the technical issues underlying the approach

A study of diagnostics expert system for accelerator applications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tyagi, Y.; Banerji, Anil; Kotaiah, S.

2003-01-01

Knowledge based techniques are proving to be useful in a number of problem domains which typically requires human expertise. Expert systems employing knowledge based techniques are a recent product of artificial intelligence. Methods developed in the artificial intelligence area can be applied with success for certain classes of problems in accelerator. Accelerators are complex devices with thousands of components. The number of possible faults or problems that can appear is enormous. A diagnostics expert system can provide great help in finding and diagnosing problems in Indus-II accelerator sub-systems. (author)

Plutonium - the ultrapoison? An expert's opinion about an expert opinion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stoll, W.; Becker, K.

1989-01-01

In an expert opinion written by Professor H. Kuni, Marburg, for the North Rhine-Westphalian state government, plutonium is called by far the most dangerous element in the Periodic Table. The Marburg medical expert holds that even improved legal instruments are unable to warrant effective protection of the workers handling this material, in the light of the present standards of industrial safety, because of radiological conditions and measuring problems with plutonium isotopes. In this article by an internationally renowned expert in the field, the ideas expressed in the expert opinion about the toxicity of plutonium, the cause-and-effect relationship in radiation damage by plutonium, and recent findings about the toxicity are subjected to a critical review. On the basis of results of radiation protection and of case studies, the statements in the expert opinion are contrasted with facts which make them appear in a very different light. (orig./RB) [de

Reliability of a consensus-based ultrasound score for tenosynovitis in rheumatoid arthritis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Naredo, Esperanza; D'Agostino, Maria Antonietta; Wakefield, Richard J

2013-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To produce consensus-based scoring systems for ultrasound (US) tenosynovitis and to assess the intraobserver and interobserver reliability of these scoring systems in rheumatoid arthritis (RA). METHODS: We undertook a Delphi process on US-defined tenosynovitis and US scoring system...... recruited. Ten rheumatologists expert in MSUS blindly, independently and consecutively scored for tenosynovitis in B-mode and PD mode three wrist extensor compartments, two finger flexor tendons and two ankle tendons of each patient in two rounds in a blinded fashion. Intraobserver reliability was assessed...... Doppler signal within the synovial sheath. The intraobserver reliability for tenosynovitis scoring on B-mode and PD mode was good (κ value 0.72 for B-mode; κ value 0.78 for PD mode). Interobserver reliability assessment showed good κ values for PD tenosynovitis scoring (first round, 0.64; second round, 0...

Expert status and performance.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mark A Burgman

Full Text Available Expert judgements are essential when time and resources are stretched or we face novel dilemmas requiring fast solutions. Good advice can save lives and large sums of money. Typically, experts are defined by their qualifications, track record and experience. The social expectation hypothesis argues that more highly regarded and more experienced experts will give better advice. We asked experts to predict how they will perform, and how their peers will perform, on sets of questions. The results indicate that the way experts regard each other is consistent, but unfortunately, ranks are a poor guide to actual performance. Expert advice will be more accurate if technical decisions routinely use broadly-defined expert groups, structured question protocols and feedback.

Expert systems for space power supply: design, analysis, and evaluation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cooper, R.S.; Thomson, M.K.; Hoshor, A.

1987-01-01

The authors evaluated the feasibility of applying expert systems to the conceptual design, analysis, and evaluation of space power supplies in particular, and complex systems in general. To do this, they analyzed the space power supply design process and in associated knowledge base, and characterized them in a form suitable for computer emulation of a human expert. The existing expert system tools and the results achieved with them were evaluated to assess their applicability to power system design. They applied some new concepts for combining program architectures (modular expert systems and algorithms) with information about the domain to create a deep system for handling the complex design problem. They authors developed, programmed and tested NOVICE, a code to solve a simplified version of a scoping study of a wide variety of power supply types for a broad range of missions, as a concrete feasibility demonstration

Semi-automated scoring of pulmonary emphysema from X-ray CT: Trainee reproducibility and accuracy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Owrangi, Amir M., E-mail: aowrangi@robarts.ca [Imaging Research Laboratories, Robarts Research Institute, London (Canada); Entwistle, Brandon, E-mail: Brandon.Entwistle@londonhospitals.ca; Lu, Andrew, E-mail: Andrew.Lu@londonhospitals.ca; Chiu, Jack, E-mail: Jack.Chiu@londonhospitals.ca; Hussain, Nabil, E-mail: Nabil.Hussain@londonhospitals.ca; Etemad-Rezai, Roya, E-mail: Roya.EtemadRezai@lhsc.on.ca; Parraga, Grace, E-mail: gparraga@robarts.ca [Imaging Research Laboratories, Robarts Research Institute, London (Canada); Graduate Program in Biomedical Engineering, Department of Medical Imaging, Department of Medical Biophysics, The University of Western Ontario, London (Canada)

2013-11-01

Objective: We developed a semi-automated tool to quantify emphysema from thoracic X-ray multi-detector (64-slice) computed tomography (CT) for training purposes and multi-reader studies. Materials and Methods: Thoracic X-ray CT was acquired in 93 ex-smokers, who were evaluated by six trainees with little or no expertise (trainees) and a single experienced thoracic radiologist (expert). A graphic user interface (GUI) was developed for emphysema quantification based on the percentile of lung where a score of 0 = no abnormalities, 1 = 1–25%, 2 = 26–50%, 3 = 51–75% and 4 = 76–100% for each lung side/slice. Trainees blinded to subject characteristics scored randomized images twice; accuracy was determined by comparison to expert scores, density histogram 15th percentile (HU{sub 15}), relative area at −950 HU (RA{sub 950}), low attenuation clusters at −950 HU (LAC{sub 950}), −856 HU (LAC{sub 856}) and the diffusing capacity for carbon monoxide (DL{sub CO%pred}). Intra- and inter-observer reproducibility was evaluated using coefficients-of-variation (COV), intra-class (ICC) and Pearson correlations. Results: Trainee–expert correlations were significant (r = 0.85–0.97, p < 0.0001) and a significant trainee bias (0.15 ± 0.22) was observed. Emphysema score was correlated with RA{sub 950} (r = 0.88, p < 0.0001), HU{sub 15} (r = −0.77, p < 0.0001), LAC{sub 950} (r = 0.76, p < 0.0001), LAC{sub 856} (r = 0.74, p = 0.0001) and DL{sub CO%pred} (r = −0.71, p < 0.0001). Intra-observer reproducibility (COV = 4–27%; ICC = 0.75–0.94) was moderate to high for trainees; intra- and inter-observer COV were negatively and non-linearly correlated with emphysema score. Conclusion: We developed a GUI for rapid and interactive emphysema scoring that allows for comparison of multiple readers with clinical and radiological standards.

Fuzzy Expert System for Heart Attack Diagnosis

Science.gov (United States)

Hassan, Norlida; Arbaiy, Nureize; Shah, Noor Aziyan Ahmad; Afizah Afif@Afip, Zehan

2017-08-01

Heart attack is one of the serious illnesses and reported as the main killer disease. Early prevention is significant to reduce the risk of having the disease. The prevention efforts can be strengthen through awareness and education about risk factor and healthy lifestyle. Therefore the knowledge dissemination is needed to play role in order to distribute and educate public in health care management and disease prevention. Since the knowledge dissemination in medical is important, there is a need to develop a knowledge based system that can emulate human intelligence to assist decision making process. Thereby, this study utilized hybrid artificial intelligence (AI) techniques to develop a Fuzzy Expert System for Diagnosing Heart Attack Disease (HAD). This system integrates fuzzy logic with expert system, which helps the medical practitioner and people to predict the risk and as well as diagnosing heart attack based on given symptom. The development of HAD is expected not only providing expert knowledge but potentially become one of learning resources to help citizens to develop awareness about heart-healthy lifestyle.

Computer-assisted expert case definition in electronic health records.

Science.gov (United States)

Walker, Alexander M; Zhou, Xiaofeng; Ananthakrishnan, Ashwin N; Weiss, Lisa S; Shen, Rongjun; Sobel, Rachel E; Bate, Andrew; Reynolds, Robert F

2016-02-01

To describe how computer-assisted presentation of case data can lead experts to infer machine-implementable rules for case definition in electronic health records. As an illustration the technique has been applied to obtain a definition of acute liver dysfunction (ALD) in persons with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). The technique consists of repeatedly sampling new batches of case candidates from an enriched pool of persons meeting presumed minimal inclusion criteria, classifying the candidates by a machine-implementable candidate rule and by a human expert, and then updating the rule so that it captures new distinctions introduced by the expert. Iteration continues until an update results in an acceptably small number of changes to form a final case definition. The technique was applied to structured data and terms derived by natural language processing from text records in 29,336 adults with IBD. Over three rounds the technique led to rules with increasing predictive value, as the experts identified exceptions, and increasing sensitivity, as the experts identified missing inclusion criteria. In the final rule inclusion and exclusion terms were often keyed to an ALD onset date. When compared against clinical review in an independent test round, the derived final case definition had a sensitivity of 92% and a positive predictive value of 79%. An iterative technique of machine-supported expert review can yield a case definition that accommodates available data, incorporates pre-existing medical knowledge, is transparent and is open to continuous improvement. The expert updates to rules may be informative in themselves. In this limited setting, the final case definition for ALD performed better than previous, published attempts using expert definitions. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Identifying key conservation threats to Alpine birds through expert knowledge

Science.gov (United States)

Pedrini, Paolo; Brambilla, Mattia; Rolando, Antonio; Girardello, Marco

2016-01-01

Alpine biodiversity is subject to a range of increasing threats, but the scarcity of data for many taxa means that it is difficult to assess the level and likely future impact of a given threat. Expert opinion can be a useful tool to address knowledge gaps in the absence of adequate data. Experts with experience in Alpine ecology were approached to rank threat levels for 69 Alpine bird species over the next 50 years for the whole European Alps in relation to ten categories: land abandonment, climate change, renewable energy, fire, forestry practices, grazing practices, hunting, leisure, mining and urbanization. There was a high degree of concordance in ranking of perceived threats among experts for most threat categories. The major overall perceived threats to Alpine birds identified through expert knowledge were land abandonment, urbanization, leisure and forestry, although other perceived threats were ranked highly for particular species groups (renewable energy and hunting for raptors, hunting for gamebirds). For groups of species defined according to their breeding habitat, open habitat species and treeline species were perceived as the most threatened. A spatial risk assessment tool based on summed scores for the whole community showed threat levels were highest for bird communities of the northern and western Alps. Development of the approaches given in this paper, including addressing biases in the selection of experts and adopting a more detailed ranking procedure, could prove useful in the future in identifying future threats, and in carrying out risk assessments based on levels of threat to the whole bird community. PMID:26966659

Identifying key conservation threats to Alpine birds through expert knowledge

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dan E. Chamberlain

2016-02-01

Full Text Available Alpine biodiversity is subject to a range of increasing threats, but the scarcity of data for many taxa means that it is difficult to assess the level and likely future impact of a given threat. Expert opinion can be a useful tool to address knowledge gaps in the absence of adequate data. Experts with experience in Alpine ecology were approached to rank threat levels for 69 Alpine bird species over the next 50 years for the whole European Alps in relation to ten categories: land abandonment, climate change, renewable energy, fire, forestry practices, grazing practices, hunting, leisure, mining and urbanization. There was a high degree of concordance in ranking of perceived threats among experts for most threat categories. The major overall perceived threats to Alpine birds identified through expert knowledge were land abandonment, urbanization, leisure and forestry, although other perceived threats were ranked highly for particular species groups (renewable energy and hunting for raptors, hunting for gamebirds. For groups of species defined according to their breeding habitat, open habitat species and treeline species were perceived as the most threatened. A spatial risk assessment tool based on summed scores for the whole community showed threat levels were highest for bird communities of the northern and western Alps. Development of the approaches given in this paper, including addressing biases in the selection of experts and adopting a more detailed ranking procedure, could prove useful in the future in identifying future threats, and in carrying out risk assessments based on levels of threat to the whole bird community.

Ethical acceptability of research on human-animal chimeric embryos: summary of opinions by the Japanese Expert Panel on Bioethics.

Science.gov (United States)

Mizuno, Hiroshi; Akutsu, Hidenori; Kato, Kazuto

2015-01-01

Human-animal chimeric embryos are embryos obtained by introducing human cells into a non-human animal embryo. It is envisaged that the application of human-animal chimeric embryos may make possible many useful research projects including producing three-dimensional human organs in animals and verification of the pluripotency of human ES cells or iPS cells in vivo. The use of human-animal chimeric embryos, however, raises several ethical and moral concerns. The most fundamental one is that human-animal chimeric embryos possess the potential to develop into organisms containing human-derived tissue, which may lead to infringing upon the identity of the human species, and thus impairing human dignity. The Japanese Expert Panel on Bioethics in the Cabinet Office carefully considered the scientific significance and ethical acceptability of the issue and released its "Opinions regarding the handling of research using human-animal chimeric embryos". The Panel proposed a framework of case-by-case review, and suggested that the following points must be carefully reviewed from the perspective of ethical acceptability: (a) Types of animal embryos and types of animals receiving embryo transfers, particularly in dealing with non-human primates; (b) Types of human cells and organs intended for production, particularly in dealing with human nerve or germ cells; and (c) Extent of the period required for post-transfer studies. The scientific knowledge that can be gained from transfer into an animal uterus and from the production of an individual must be clarified to avoid unnecessary generation of chimeric animals. The time is ripe for the scientific community and governments to start discussing the ethical issues for establishing a global consensus.

Real time expert systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Asami, Tohru; Hashimoto, Kazuo; Yamamoto, Seiichi

1992-01-01

Recently, aiming at the application to the plant control for nuclear reactors and traffic and communication control, the research and the practical use of the expert system suitable to real time processing have become conspicuous. In this report, the condition for the required function to control the object that dynamically changes within a limited time is presented, and the technical difference between the real time expert system developed so as to satisfy it and the expert system of conventional type is explained with the actual examples and from theoretical aspect. The expert system of conventional type has the technical base in the problem-solving equipment originating in STRIPS. The real time expert system is applied to the fields accompanied by surveillance and control, to which conventional expert system is hard to be applied. The requirement for the real time expert system, the example of the real time expert system, and as the techniques of realizing real time processing, the realization of interruption processing, dispersion processing, and the mechanism of maintaining the consistency of knowledge are explained. (K.I.)

Human Factors in Financial Trading

Science.gov (United States)

Leaver, Meghan; Reader, Tom W.

2016-01-01

Objective This study tests the reliability of a system (FINANS) to collect and analyze incident reports in the financial trading domain and is guided by a human factors taxonomy used to describe error in the trading domain. Background Research indicates the utility of applying human factors theory to understand error in finance, yet empirical research is lacking. We report on the development of the first system for capturing and analyzing human factors–related issues in operational trading incidents. Method In the first study, 20 incidents are analyzed by an expert user group against a referent standard to establish the reliability of FINANS. In the second study, 750 incidents are analyzed using distribution, mean, pathway, and associative analysis to describe the data. Results Kappa scores indicate that categories within FINANS can be reliably used to identify and extract data on human factors–related problems underlying trading incidents. Approximately 1% of trades (n = 750) lead to an incident. Slip/lapse (61%), situation awareness (51%), and teamwork (40%) were found to be the most common problems underlying incidents. For the most serious incidents, problems in situation awareness and teamwork were most common. Conclusion We show that (a) experts in the trading domain can reliably and accurately code human factors in incidents, (b) 1% of trades incur error, and (c) poor teamwork skills and situation awareness underpin the most critical incidents. Application This research provides data crucial for ameliorating risk within financial trading organizations, with implications for regulation and policy. PMID:27142394

Environmental factors and puberty timing: Expert panel research needs

Science.gov (United States)

An expert panel reviewed the literature on endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs), body size and puberty. The panel concluded that available experimental animal and human data support a possible role of EDCs and body size in relation to alterations in pubertal onset and progressio...

Prioritizing risks via several expert perspectives with application to runway safety

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rogerson, Ellen C.; Lambert, James H.

2012-01-01

Factor hierarchies have been widely used in the literature to represent the view of an expert of what factors most contribute to reliability or safety. The methods for rating and aggregating the influences across a set of expert-elicited factors to risk or reliability are well known as multiple criteria decision analysis. This paper describes a method for distinguishing levels of risk across a set of locations via the use of multiple factor hierarchies. The method avoids averaging across experts and is thus useful for situations where experts disagree and where an absence of expert consensus on the causative or contributing factors is important information for risk management. A case study demonstrates using seven expert perspectives on the airport-specific factors that can contribute to runway incursions. The results are described for eighty towered airports in the US. The expert perspectives include differing relative emphases across the following set of factors: airport geometry, operations, weather, geography, and days since last safety review. Future work is suggested to include human factors issues as pilot-and-controller communications styles at airports. - Highlights: ► We examine influential factors in seven expert perspectives on the problem domain. ► We assess eighty US airports with qualitative measurement scales for each risk factor. ► Results show robustness and sensitivity of the risk index to expert perspective. ► We examine factors of several types including runway geometry, operations, weather, and geography.

Identification of component performance degradations caused by ageing using expert panels

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nitoi, Mirela; Cristea, Dumitru; Pavelescu, Margarit

2008-01-01

Since the component ageing can be considered as one of the important causes of operating events reported, the identification of ageing effects and implementation of appropriate methods for mitigation of these effects represent an important preoccupation of many organizations and research activities. In the process of identification of ageing manifestation we can use either analysis of operational data or expert opinions, each of the methods having specific advantages and disadvantages. A reasonable combination of statistical, structural reliability and expert panel methods would be an appropriate approach in the failure probability assessments. In case when there are not enough operational data, the expert judgments represent the only viable alternative in the effort dedicated to identification of components and systems vulnerability to ageing. The panel use judgments to analyse the degradation produced by ageing, to score the components based on specific criteria and to rank them relative to one another. The paper presents the approach developed, including evaluation criteria and assigning indices for assessment of particular types of ageing degradation (the case of secondary system of TRIGA reactor). (authors)

Validity of the Danish Prostate Symptom Score questionnaire in stroke

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tibaek, S.; Dehlendorff, Christian

2009-01-01

Objective – To determine the content and face validity of the Danish Prostate Symptom Score (DAN-PSS-1) questionnaire in stroke patients. Materials and methods – Content validity was judged among an expert panel in neuro-urology. The judgement was measured by the content validity index (CVI). Face...... validity was indicated in a clinical sample of 482 stroke patients in a hospital-based, cross-sectional survey. Results – I-CVI was rated >0.78 (range 0.94–1.00) for 75% of symptom and bother items corresponding to adequate content validity. The expert panel rated the entire DAN-PSS-1 questionnaire highly...... questionnaire appears to be content and face valid for measuring lower urinary tract symptoms after stroke....

Developing an expert system to control a beam line at the Los Alamos Meson Physics Facility

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Clearwater, S.H.; Papcun, G.; Clark, D.A.

1985-01-01

High energy particle experiments require an accelerator as a source of high energy particles. To increase the productivity of an accelerator facility, we wish to develop an expert system to control beam lines. Expert Systems are a branch of Artificial Intelligence where a computer program performs tasks requiring human expertise. Unlike most expert systems we have a physical model underlying our beam line and this model can be used with the expert system to improve performance. The development of the expert system will lead to an increased understanding of the beam line as well as the possibility of state-of-the-art expert system building

Color feature extraction of HER2 Score 2+ overexpression on breast cancer using Image Processing

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Muhimmah Izzati

2018-01-01

Full Text Available One of the major challenges in the development of early diagnosis to assess HER2 status is recognized in the form of Gold Standard. The accuracy, validity and refraction of the Gold Standard HER2 methods are widely used in laboratory (Perez, et al., 2014. Method determining the status of HER2 (human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 is affected by reproductive problems and not reliable in predicting the benefit from anti-HER2 therapy (Nuciforo, et al., 2016. We extracted color features by methods adopting Statistics-based segmentation using a continuous-scale naïve Bayes approach. In this study, there were three parts of the main groups, namely image acquisition, image segmentation, and image testing. The stages of image acquisition consisted of image data collection and color deconvolution. The stages of image segmentation consisted of color features, classifier training, classifier prediction, and skeletonization. The stages of image testing were image testing, expert validation, and expert validation results. Area segmentation of the membrane is false positive and false negative. False positive and false negative from area are called the area of system failure. The failure of the system can be validated by experts that the results of segmentation region is not membrane HER2 (noise and the segmentation of the cytoplasm region. The average from 40 data of HER2 score 2+ membrane images show that 75.13% of the area is successfully recognized by the system.

Brain mechanisms of persuasion: how 'expert power' modulates memory and attitudes.

Science.gov (United States)

Klucharev, Vasily; Smidts, Ale; Fernández, Guillén

2008-12-01

Human behaviour is affected by various forms of persuasion. The general persuasive effect of high expertise of the communicator, often referred to as 'expert power', is well documented. We found that a single exposure to a combination of an expert and an object leads to a long-lasting positive effect on memory for and attitude towards the object. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging, we probed the neural processes predicting these behavioural effects. Expert context was associated with distributed left-lateralized brain activity in prefrontal and temporal cortices related to active semantic elaboration. Furthermore, experts enhanced subsequent memory effects in the medial temporal lobe (i.e. in hippocampus and parahippocampal gyrus) involved in memory formation. Experts also affected subsequent attitude effects in the caudate nucleus involved in trustful behaviour, reward processing and learning. These results may suggest that the persuasive effect of experts is mediated by modulation of caudate activity resulting in a re-evaluation of the object in terms of its perceived value. Results extend our view of the functional role of the dorsal striatum in social interaction and enable us to make the first steps toward a neuroscientific model of persuasion.

Cost Reduction and Business Strategy Matters to Human Resource Outsourcing? A Validation by HR Experts from Government Link Companies (GLC’s.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mansor Mohd Fitri

2018-01-01

Full Text Available The phenomenon of outsourcing has spawned a rich body scholarly reseach in sveral decades. However, the answer to one of the pertinent question has remained elusive: Does cost reduction and business strategy really matters to the human resource outsourcing impacts. Looking at this question it is important for the organization to embark on the practice of human resource outsourcing to save operating cost and remain competitive. Therefore, the objective of this study is to investigate the effects of cost reduction and business starategy towards human resource outsourcing impacts. Both quantitative and qualitative methods were employed and the top management in Malaysian Government Link Companies (GLC’ is the unit of analysis. The findings revelaved that, both variables are significant statistically and non statically i.e from the experts opinion. Finally, the study also provides useful directions for future research, HR Practitioners and policy maker particularly in managing and organizing human reseouce matters.

An Embedded Rule-Based Diagnostic Expert System in Ada

Science.gov (United States)

Jones, Robert E.; Liberman, Eugene M.

1992-01-01

Ada is becoming an increasingly popular programming language for large Government-funded software projects. Ada with it portability, transportability, and maintainability lends itself well to today's complex programming environment. In addition, expert systems have also assumed a growing role in providing human-like reasoning capability expertise for computer systems. The integration is discussed of expert system technology with Ada programming language, especially a rule-based expert system using an ART-Ada (Automated Reasoning Tool for Ada) system shell. NASA Lewis was chosen as a beta test site for ART-Ada. The test was conducted by implementing the existing Autonomous Power EXpert System (APEX), a Lisp-based power expert system, in ART-Ada. Three components, the rule-based expert systems, a graphics user interface, and communications software make up SMART-Ada (Systems fault Management with ART-Ada). The rules were written in the ART-Ada development environment and converted to Ada source code. The graphics interface was developed with the Transportable Application Environment (TAE) Plus, which generates Ada source code to control graphics images. SMART-Ada communicates with a remote host to obtain either simulated or real data. The Ada source code generated with ART-Ada, TAE Plus, and communications code was incorporated into an Ada expert system that reads the data from a power distribution test bed, applies the rule to determine a fault, if one exists, and graphically displays it on the screen. The main objective, to conduct a beta test on the ART-Ada rule-based expert system shell, was achieved. The system is operational. New Ada tools will assist in future successful projects. ART-Ada is one such tool and is a viable alternative to the straight Ada code when an application requires a rule-based or knowledge-based approach.

Setting pass scores for clinical skills assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Min; Liu, Keh-Min

2008-12-01

In a clinical skills assessment, the decision to pass or fail an examinee should be based on the test content or on the examinees' performance. The process of deciding a pass score is known as setting a standard of the examination. This requires a properly selected panel of expert judges and a suitable standard setting method, which best fits the purpose of the examination. Six standard setting methods that are often used in clinical skills assessment are described to provide an overview of the standard setting process.

Techniques and implementation of the embedded rule-based expert system using Ada

Science.gov (United States)

Liberman, Eugene M.; Jones, Robert E.

1991-01-01

Ada is becoming an increasingly popular programming language for large Government-funded software projects. Ada with its portability, transportability, and maintainability lends itself well to today's complex programming environment. In addition, expert systems have also assured a growing role in providing human-like reasoning capability and expertise for computer systems. The integration of expert system technology with Ada programming language, specifically a rule-based expert system using an ART-Ada (Automated Reasoning Tool for Ada) system shell is discussed. The NASA Lewis Research Center was chosen as a beta test site for ART-Ada. The test was conducted by implementing the existing Autonomous Power EXpert System (APEX), a Lisp-base power expert system, in ART-Ada. Three components, the rule-based expert system, a graphics user interface, and communications software make up SMART-Ada (Systems fault Management with ART-Ada). The main objective, to conduct a beta test on the ART-Ada rule-based expert system shell, was achieved. The system is operational. New Ada tools will assist in future successful projects. ART-Ada is one such tool and is a viable alternative to the straight Ada code when an application requires a rule-based or knowledge-based approach.

Computer-Automated Approach for Scoring Short Essays in an Introductory Statistics Course

Science.gov (United States)

Zimmerman, Whitney Alicia; Kang, Hyun Bin; Kim, Kyung; Gao, Mengzhao; Johnson, Glenn; Clariana, Roy; Zhang, Fan

2018-01-01

Over two semesters short essay prompts were developed for use with the Graphical Interface for Knowledge Structure (GIKS), an automated essay scoring system. Participants were students in an undergraduate-level online introductory statistics course. The GIKS compares students' writing samples with an expert's to produce keyword occurrence and…

Theoretical and experimental research on the use of expert systems (ES in assessing risks of failure in metallurgical companies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

E. Iancu

2013-04-01

Full Text Available The systems’ engineering has reached an explosive development of intelligent systems technology which solves complex problems based on human expertise accumulated in the past and following the processes of learning and reasoning very similar to those of the biological brain. In this article, the concept of the proposed expert system is the result of interdisciplinary researches (computer science, management, accounting and business administration, etc., which are designed to provide a tool for top management work force of a listed metallurgical company. The inference machine will provide in the end score functions for Altman, Conan Holder model and rating which eventually can be combined into a single model that will forecast the company’s evolution in coming years.

What is healthy food? Objective nutrient profile scores and subjective lay evaluations in comparison.

Science.gov (United States)

Bucher, T; Müller, B; Siegrist, M

2015-12-01

To date, it is unclear how consumers evaluate the healthiness of individual foods and meals and how consumers' perceptions are related to expert opinions. This knowledge is essential for efficient communication of nutrition information with the goal of promoting healthy eating. This study used the fake food buffet method to investigate health perceptions of selected meals and of 54 individual foods and beverages. Lay consumers' subjective healthiness evaluations of meals and foods were compared to objective nutrient profile scores, which were previously shown to correlate highly with expert opinions. The results show that nutrition profile scores and lay evaluations were highly correlated, which indicates that lay people used similar criteria as experts to evaluate the healthiness of foods. However, lay consumers tended to neglect the amount of saturated fat, protein and sodium for their judgments. Also, it was found that while lay consumers were quite able to evaluate single food products, they had difficulties in evaluating entire meals. Future interventions should focus particularly on educating the consumer about the negative effects of diets high in salt and saturated fat and they should improve the consumer's abilities to evaluate entire meals. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An expert panel-based study on recognition of gastro-esophageal reflux in difficult esophageal pH-impedance tracings.

Science.gov (United States)

Smits, M J; Loots, C M; van Wijk, M P; Bredenoord, A J; Benninga, M A; Smout, A J P M

2015-05-01

Despite existing criteria for scoring gastro-esophageal reflux (GER) in esophageal multichannel pH-impedance measurement (pH-I) tracings, inter- and intra-rater variability is large and agreement with automated analysis is poor. To identify parameters of difficult to analyze pH-I patterns and combine these into a statistical model that can identify GER episodes with an international consensus as gold standard. Twenty-one experts from 10 countries were asked to mark GER presence for adult and pediatric pH-I patterns in an online pre-assessment. During a consensus meeting, experts voted on patterns not reaching majority consensus (>70% agreement). Agreement was calculated between raters, between consensus and individual raters, and between consensus and software generated automated analysis. With eight selected parameters, multiple logistic regression analysis was performed to describe an algorithm sensitive and specific for detection of GER. Majority consensus was reached for 35/79 episodes in the online pre-assessment (interrater κ = 0.332). Mean agreement between pre-assessment scores and final consensus was moderate (κ = 0.466). Combining eight pH-I parameters did not result in a statistically significant model able to identify presence of GER. Recognizing a pattern as retrograde is the best indicator of GER, with 100% sensitivity and 81% specificity with expert consensus as gold standard. Agreement between experts scoring difficult impedance patterns for presence or absence of GER is poor. Combining several characteristics into a statistical model did not improve diagnostic accuracy. Only the parameter 'retrograde propagation pattern' is an indicator of GER in difficult pH-I patterns. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Online-Expert: An Expert System for Online Database Selection.

Science.gov (United States)

Zahir, Sajjad; Chang, Chew Lik

1992-01-01

Describes the design and development of a prototype expert system called ONLINE-EXPERT that helps users select online databases and vendors that meet users' needs. Search strategies are discussed; knowledge acquisition and knowledge bases are described; and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), a decision analysis technique that ranks databases,…

Being an expert

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brechet, Y.; Musseau, O.; Bruna, G.; Sperandio, M.; Roulleaux-Dugage, M.; Andrieux, S.; Metteau, L.

2014-01-01

This series of short articles are dedicated to the role of the expert in the enterprise. There is an important difference between a scientific counsellor and an expert, the expert, recognized by his peers, can speak publicly in his field of expertise but has a duty of transparency while the job of a scientific counsellor requires confidentiality. The making and the use of an expert in an enterprise requires a dedicated organization. The organization of the expertise in 5 enterprises in nuclear industry are considered: CEA (French Alternative Energies and Atomic Energy Commission), IRSN (Institute of Radioprotection and Nuclear Safety), AREVA, ANDRA (National Radioactive Waste Management Agency) and EDF (Electricity of France)

Expert judgment on markers to deter inadvertent human intrusion into the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Trauth, K.M. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hora, S.C. [Hawaii Univ., Hilo, HI (United States); Guzowski, R.V. [Science Applications International Corp., San Diego, CA (United States)

1993-11-01

The expert panel identified basic principles to guide current and future marker development efforts: (1) the site must be marked, (2) message(s) must be truthful and informative, (3) multiple components within a marker system, (4) multiple means of communication (e.g., language, pictographs, scientific diagrams), (5) multiple levels of complexity within individual messages on individual marker system elements, (6) use of materials with little recycle value, and (7) international effort to maintain knowledge of the locations and contents of nuclear waste repositories. The efficacy of the markers in deterring inadvertent human intrusion was estimated to decrease with time, with the probability function varying with the mode of intrusion (who is intruding and for what purpose) and the level of technological development of the society. The development of a permanent, passive marker system capable of surviving and remaining interpretable for 10,000 years will require further study prior to implementation.

Expert judgment on markers to deter inadvertent human intrusion into the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Trauth, K.M.; Hora, S.C.; Guzowski, R.V.

1993-11-01

The expert panel identified basic principles to guide current and future marker development efforts: (1) the site must be marked, (2) message(s) must be truthful and informative, (3) multiple components within a marker system, (4) multiple means of communication (e.g., language, pictographs, scientific diagrams), (5) multiple levels of complexity within individual messages on individual marker system elements, (6) use of materials with little recycle value, and (7) international effort to maintain knowledge of the locations and contents of nuclear waste repositories. The efficacy of the markers in deterring inadvertent human intrusion was estimated to decrease with time, with the probability function varying with the mode of intrusion (who is intruding and for what purpose) and the level of technological development of the society. The development of a permanent, passive marker system capable of surviving and remaining interpretable for 10,000 years will require further study prior to implementation

Expert assessment of the resilience of drinking water and sanitation systems to climate-related hazards.

Science.gov (United States)

Luh, Jeanne; Royster, Sarah; Sebastian, Daniel; Ojomo, Edema; Bartram, Jamie

2017-08-15

We conducted an expert assessment to obtain expert opinions on the relative global resilience of ten drinking water and five sanitation technologies to the following six climate-related hazards: drought, decreased inter-annual precipitation, flood, superstorm flood, wind damage, and saline intrusion. Resilience scores ranged from 1.7 to 9.9 out of a maximum resilience of 10, with high scores corresponding to high resilience. We find that for some climate-related hazards, such as drought, technologies demonstrated a large range in resilience, indicating that the choice of water and sanitation technologies is important for areas prone to drought. On the other hand, the range of resilience scores for superstorm flooding was much smaller, particularly for sanitation technologies, suggesting that the choice of technology is less of a determinant of functionality for superstorm flooding as compared to other climate-related hazards. For drinking water technologies, only treated piped utility-managed systems that use surface water had resilience scores >6.0 for all hazards, while protected dug wells were found to be one of the least resilient technologies, consistently scoring <5.0 for all hazards except wind damage. In general, sanitation technologies were found to have low to medium resilience, suggesting that sanitation systems need to be adapted to ensure functionality during and after climate-related hazards. The results of the study can be used to help communities decide which technologies are best suited for the climate-related challenges they face and help in future adaptation planning. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Expert versus proxy rating of verbal communicative ability of people with aphasia after stroke.

Science.gov (United States)

de Jong-Hagelstein, Marjolein; Kros, Lieke; Lingsma, Hester F; Dippel, Diederik W J; Koudstaal, Peter J; Visch-Brink, Evy G

2012-11-01

In randomized clinical trials of aphasia treatment, a functional outcome measure like the Amsterdam-Nijmegen Everyday Language Test (ANELT), administered by speech-language therapists, is often used. However, the agreement between this expert rating and the judgment of the proxy about the quality of the daily life communication of the person with aphasia is largely unknown. We examined the association between ANELT scores by speech-language therapists and proxy judgments on the Partner Communication Questionnaire both at 3 and 6 months in 39 people with aphasia after stroke. We also determined which factors affected the level of agreement between expert and proxy judgment of the communicative ability at 6 months in 53 people with aphasia. We found moderate agreement (at 3 months r = .662; p = aphasia, measured with the Aphasia Severity Rating Scale, was associated with better agreement. In conclusion, although proxies were slightly more positive than experts, we found moderate agreement between expert and proxy rating of verbal communicative ability of people with aphasia after stroke, especially in milder cases.

System Experts and Decision Making Experts in Transdisciplinary Projects

Science.gov (United States)

Mieg, Harald A.

2006-01-01

Purpose: This paper aims at a better understanding of expert roles in transdisciplinary projects. Thus, the main purpose is the analysis of the roles of experts in transdisciplinary projects. Design/methodology/approach: The analysis of the ETH-UNS case studies from the point of view of the psychology of expertise and the sociology of professions…

Interpretation of the margin of exposure for genotoxic carcinogens - elicitation of expert knowledge about the form of the dose response curve at human relevant exposures.

Science.gov (United States)

Boobis, Alan; Flari, Villie; Gosling, John Paul; Hart, Andy; Craig, Peter; Rushton, Lesley; Idahosa-Taylor, Ehi

2013-07-01

The general approach to risk assessment of genotoxic carcinogens has been to advise reduction of exposure to "as low as reasonably achievable/practicable" (ALARA/P). However, whilst this remains the preferred risk management option, it does not provide guidance on the urgency or extent of risk management actions necessary. To address this, the "Margin of Exposure" (MOE) approach has been proposed. The MOE is the ratio between the point of departure for carcinogenesis and estimated human exposure. However, interpretation of the MOE requires implicit or explicit consideration of the shape of the dose-response curve at human relevant exposures. In a structured elicitation exercise, we captured expert opinion on available scientific evidence for low dose-response relationships for genotoxic carcinogens. This allowed assessment of: available evidence for the nature of dose-response relationships at human relevant exposures; the generality of judgments about such dose-response relationships; uncertainties affecting judgments on the nature of such dose-response relationships; and whether this last should differ for different classes of genotoxic carcinogens. Elicitation results reflected the variability in experts' views on the form of the dose-response curve for low dose exposure and major sources of uncertainty affecting the assumption of a linear relationship. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An Expert System for Diagnosing Eye Diseases using Forward Chaining Method

Science.gov (United States)

Munaiseche, C. P. C.; Kaparang, D. R.; Rompas, P. T. D.

2018-02-01

Expert System is a system that seeks to adopt human knowledge to the computer, so that the computer can solve problems which are usually done by experts. The purpose of medical expert system is to support the diagnosis process of physicians. It considers facts and symptoms to provide diagnosis. This implies that a medical expert system uses knowledge about diseases and facts about the patients to suggest diagnosis. The aim of this research is to design an expert system application for diagnosing eye diseases using forward chaining method and to figure out user acceptance to this application through usability testing. Eye is selected because it is one of the five senses which is very sensitive and important. The scope of the work is extended to 16 types of eye diseases with 41 symptoms of the disease, arranged in 16 rules. The computer programming language employed was the PHP programming language and MySQL as the Relational Database Management System (RDBMS). The results obtained showed that the expert system was able to successfully diagnose eye diseases corresponding to the selected symptoms entered as query and the system evaluation through usability testing showed the expert system for diagnosis eye diseases had very good rate of usability, which includes learnability, efficiency, memorability, errors, and satisfaction so that the system can be received in the operational environment.

EXPERT SYSTEMS - DEVELOPMENT OF AGRICULTURAL INSURANCE TOOL

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

NAN Anca-Petruţa

2013-07-01

Full Text Available Because of the fact that specialty agricultural assistance is not always available when the farmers need it, we identified expert systems as a strong instrument with an extended potential in agriculture. This started to grow in scale recently, including all socially-economic activity fields, having the role of collecting data regarding different aspects from human experts with the purpose of assisting the user in the necessary steps for solving problems, at the performance level of the expert, making his acquired knowledge and experience available. We opted for a general presentation of the expert systems as well as their necessity, because, the solution to develop the agricultural system can come from artificial intelligence by implementing the expert systems in the field of agricultural insurance, promoting existing insurance products, farmers finding options in depending on their necessities and possibilities. The objective of this article consists of collecting data about different aspects about specific areas of interest of agricultural insurance, preparing the database, a conceptual presentation of a pilot version which will become constantly richer depending on the answers received from agricultural producers, with the clearest exposure of knowledgebase possible. We can justify picking this theme with the fact that even while agricultural insurance plays a very important role in agricultural development, the registered result got from them are modest, reason why solutions need to be found in the scope of developing the agricultural sector. The importance of this consists in the proposal of an immediate viable solution to correspond with the current necessities of agricultural producers and in the proposal of an innovative solution, namely the implementation of expert system in agricultural insurance as a way of promoting insurance products. Our research, even though it treats the subject at an conceptual level, it wants to undertake an

Rational consensus under uncertainty: Expert judgment in the EC-USNRC uncertainty study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cooke, R.; Kraan, B.; Goossens, L.

1999-01-01

Governmental bodies are confronted with the problem of achieving rational consensus in the face of substantial uncertainties. The area of accident consequence management for nuclear power plants affords a good example. Decisions with regard to evacuation, decontamination, and food bans must be taken on the basis of predictions of environmental transport of radioactive material, contamination through the food chain, cancer induction, and the like. These predictions use mathematical models containing scores of uncertain parameters. Decision makers want to take, and want to be perceived to take, these decisions in a rational manner. The question is, how can this be accomplished in the face of large uncertainties? Indeed, the very presence of uncertainty poses a threat to rational consensus. Decision makers will necessarily base their actions on the judgments of experts. The experts, however, will not agree among themselves, as otherwise we would not speak of large uncertainties. Any given expert's viewpoint will be favorable to the interests of some stakeholders, and hostile to the interests of others. If a decision maker bases his/her actions on the views of one single expert, then (s)he is invariably open to charges of partiality toward the interests favored by this viewpoint. An appeal to 'impartial' or 'disinterested' experts will fail for two reasons. First, experts have interests; they have jobs, mortgages and professional reputations. Second, even if expert interests could somehow be quarantined, even then the experts would disagree. Expert disagreement is not explained by diverging interests, and consensus cannot be reached by shielding the decision process from expert interests. If rational consensus requires expert agreement, then rational consensus is simply not possible in the face of uncertainty. If rational consensus under uncertainty is to be achieved, then evidently the views of a diverse set of experts must be taken into account. The question is how

Setting Pass Scores for Clinical Skills Assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Min Liu

2008-12-01

Full Text Available In a clinical skills assessment, the decision to pass or fail an examinee should be based on the test content or on the examinees' performance. The process of deciding a pass score is known as setting a standard of the examination. This requires a properly selected panel of expert judges and a suitable standard setting method, which best fits the purpose of the examination. Six standard setting methods that are often used in clinical skills assessment are described to provide an overview of the standard setting process.

Developing knowledge management systems with an active expert methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sandahl, K.

1992-01-01

Knowledge management, understood as the ability to store, distribute and utilize human knowledge in an organization, is the subject of this dissertation. In particular we have studied the design of methods and supporting software for this process. Detailed and systematic description of the design and development processes of three case-study implementations of knowledge management software are provided. The outcome of the projects is explained in terms of an active expert development methodology, which is centered around support for a domain expert to take substantial responsibility for the design and maintenance of a knowledge management system in a given area of application. Based on the experiences from the case studies and the resulting methodology, an environment for automatically supporting knowledge management was designed in the KNOWLEDGE-LINKER research project. The vital part of this architecture is a knowledge acquisition tool, used directly by the experts in creating and maintaining a knowledge base. An elaborated version of the active expert development methodology was then formulated as the result of applying the KNOWLEDGE-LINKER approach in a fourth case study. This version of the methodology is also accounted for and evaluated together within the supporting KNOWLEDGE-LINKER architecture. (au)

Expert auditors’ services classification

OpenAIRE

Jolanta Wisniewska

2013-01-01

The profession of an expert auditor is a public trust occupation with a distinctive feature of taking responsibility for actions in the public interest. The main responsibility of expert auditors is performing financial auditing; however, expert auditors are prepared to carry out different tasks which encompass a wide plethora of financial and auditing services for different kinds of institutions and companies. The aim of the article is first of all the description of expert auditors’ service...

Automated essay scoring and the future of educational assessment in medical education.

Science.gov (United States)

Gierl, Mark J; Latifi, Syed; Lai, Hollis; Boulais, André-Philippe; De Champlain, André

2014-10-01

Constructed-response tasks, which range from short-answer tests to essay questions, are included in assessments of medical knowledge because they allow educators to measure students' ability to think, reason, solve complex problems, communicate and collaborate through their use of writing. However, constructed-response tasks are also costly to administer and challenging to score because they rely on human raters. One alternative to the manual scoring process is to integrate computer technology with writing assessment. The process of scoring written responses using computer programs is known as 'automated essay scoring' (AES). An AES system uses a computer program that builds a scoring model by extracting linguistic features from a constructed-response prompt that has been pre-scored by human raters and then, using machine learning algorithms, maps the linguistic features to the human scores so that the computer can be used to classify (i.e. score or grade) the responses of a new group of students. The accuracy of the score classification can be evaluated using different measures of agreement. Automated essay scoring provides a method for scoring constructed-response tests that complements the current use of selected-response testing in medical education. The method can serve medical educators by providing the summative scores required for high-stakes testing. It can also serve medical students by providing them with detailed feedback as part of a formative assessment process. Automated essay scoring systems yield scores that consistently agree with those of human raters at a level as high, if not higher, as the level of agreement among human raters themselves. The system offers medical educators many benefits for scoring constructed-response tasks, such as improving the consistency of scoring, reducing the time required for scoring and reporting, minimising the costs of scoring, and providing students with immediate feedback on constructed-response tasks. © 2014

Naming it 'nano': Expert views on 'nano' terminology in informed consent forms of first-in-human nanomedicine trials.

Science.gov (United States)

Satalkar, Priya; Elger, Bernice Simone; Shaw, David

2016-04-01

Obtaining valid informed consent (IC) can be challenging in first-in-human (FIH) trials in nanomedicine due to the complex interventions, the hype and hope concerning potential benefits, and fear of harms attributed to 'nano' particles. We describe and analyze the opinions of expert stakeholders involved in translational nanomedicine regarding explicit use of 'nano' terminology in IC documents. We draw on content analysis of 46 in-depth interviews with European and North American stakeholders. We received a spectrum of responses (reluctance, ambivalence, absolute insistence) on explicit mention of 'nano' in IC forms with underlying reasons. We conclude that consistent, clear and honest communication regarding the 'nano' dimension of investigational product is critical in IC forms of FIH trials.

Brain mechanisms of persuasion: how ‘expert power’ modulates memory and attitudes

Science.gov (United States)

Smidts, Ale; Fernández, Guillén

2008-01-01

Human behaviour is affected by various forms of persuasion. The general persuasive effect of high expertise of the communicator, often referred to as ’expert power’, is well documented. We found that a single exposure to a combination of an expert and an object leads to a long-lasting positive effect on memory for and attitude towards the object. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging, we probed the neural processes predicting these behavioural effects. Expert context was associated with distributed left-lateralized brain activity in prefrontal and temporal cortices related to active semantic elaboration. Furthermore, experts enhanced subsequent memory effects in the medial temporal lobe (i.e. in hippocampus and parahippocampal gyrus) involved in memory formation. Experts also affected subsequent attitude effects in the caudate nucleus involved in trustful behaviour, reward processing and learning. These results may suggest that the persuasive effect of experts is mediated by modulation of caudate activity resulting in a re-evaluation of the object in terms of its perceived value. Results extend our view of the functional role of the dorsal striatum in social interaction and enable us to make the first steps toward a neuroscientific model of persuasion. PMID:19015077

The Design and Implementation of an Intelligent Apparel Recommend Expert System

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. H. Dong

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Now with the rapid development of information science and technology, intelligent apparel recommend has drawn wide attention in apparel retail industry. Intelligent management and effective recommend are two issues of crucial importance for the retail store to enhance its corporate influence and increase its economic benefits. This paper proposes an intelligent recommend system design scheme for apparel retail which is based on expert system. By comprehensive utilization of database management and expert system technology, the proposed system provides a solid solution in improving the customer shopping experience. This paper presents a kind of object-oriented blackboard structure, which is applied in the apparel recommend expert system and establishes expert rule on the basis of apparel characteristic elements. Through the establishment of the rule base, the system generates personal recommend list by positive rule reasoning mechanism engine. The proposed method thus gives dress collocation scheme for the customer through the human-machine interaction from the point of view of the apparel experts. This design scheme avails the customers to experience targeted service with intellectualization, and personalization and it has certain reference significance for promoting apparel retail intelligence development.

Checklist and scoring system for the assessment of soft tissue preservation in CT examinations of human mummies. Application to the Tyrolean Iceman

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Panzer, Stephanie [Trauma Center Murnau (Germany). Dept. of Radiology; Trauma Center Murnau and Paracelsus Medical Univ. Salzburg, Murnau (Germany). Inst. of Biomechanics; Pernter, Patrizia [Central Hospital, Bozen (Italy). Dept. of Radiodiagnostics; Piombino-Mascali, Dario; Jankauskas, Rimantas [Vilnius Univ. (Lithuania). Dept. of Anatomy, Histology and Anthropology; Zesch, Stephanie; Rosendahl, Wilfried [Reiss-Engelhorn Museen, Mannheim (Germany). German Mummy Project; Hotz, Gerhard [Natural History Museum of Basel (Switzerland). Anthropology; Zink, Albert R. [EURAC-Institute for Mummies and the Iceman, Bolzano (Italy)

2017-12-15

Soft tissues make a skeleton into a mummy and they allow for a diagnosis beyond osteology. Following the approach of structured reporting in clinical radiology, a recently developed checklist was used to evaluate the soft tissue preservation status of the Tyrolean Iceman using computed tomography (CT). The purpose of this study was to apply the ''Checklist and Scoring System for the Assessment of Soft Tissue Preservation in CT Examinations of Human Mummies'' to the Tyrolean Iceman, and to compare the Iceman's soft tissue preservation score to the scores calculated for other mummies. A whole-body (CT) (SOMATOM Definition Flash, Siemens, Forchheim, Germany) consisting of five scans, performed in January 2013 in the Department of Radiodiagnostics, Central Hospital, Bolzano, was used (slice thickness 0.6mm; kilovolt ranging from80 to 140). For standardized evaluation the ''CT Checklist and Scoring System for the Assessment of Soft Tissue Preservation in Human Mummies'' was used. All checkpoints under category ''A. Soft Tissues of Head and Musculoskeletal System'' and more than half in category ''B. Organs and Organ Systems'' were observed. The scoring system accounted for a total score of 153 (out of 200). The comparison of the scores between the Iceman and three mummy collections from Vilnius, Lithuania, and Palermo, Sicily, as well as one Egyptian mummy resulted in overall higher soft tissue preservation scores for the Iceman. Application of the checklist allowed for standardized assessment and documentation of the Iceman's soft tissue preservation status. The scoring system allowed for a quantitative comparison between the Iceman and other mummies. The Iceman showed remarkable soft tissue preservation.

Checklist and scoring system for the assessment of soft tissue preservation in CT examinations of human mummies. Application to the Tyrolean Iceman

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Panzer, Stephanie

2017-01-01

Soft tissues make a skeleton into a mummy and they allow for a diagnosis beyond osteology. Following the approach of structured reporting in clinical radiology, a recently developed checklist was used to evaluate the soft tissue preservation status of the Tyrolean Iceman using computed tomography (CT). The purpose of this study was to apply the ''Checklist and Scoring System for the Assessment of Soft Tissue Preservation in CT Examinations of Human Mummies'' to the Tyrolean Iceman, and to compare the Iceman's soft tissue preservation score to the scores calculated for other mummies. A whole-body (CT) (SOMATOM Definition Flash, Siemens, Forchheim, Germany) consisting of five scans, performed in January 2013 in the Department of Radiodiagnostics, Central Hospital, Bolzano, was used (slice thickness 0.6mm; kilovolt ranging from80 to 140). For standardized evaluation the ''CT Checklist and Scoring System for the Assessment of Soft Tissue Preservation in Human Mummies'' was used. All checkpoints under category ''A. Soft Tissues of Head and Musculoskeletal System'' and more than half in category ''B. Organs and Organ Systems'' were observed. The scoring system accounted for a total score of 153 (out of 200). The comparison of the scores between the Iceman and three mummy collections from Vilnius, Lithuania, and Palermo, Sicily, as well as one Egyptian mummy resulted in overall higher soft tissue preservation scores for the Iceman. Application of the checklist allowed for standardized assessment and documentation of the Iceman's soft tissue preservation status. The scoring system allowed for a quantitative comparison between the Iceman and other mummies. The Iceman showed remarkable soft tissue preservation.

Neural correlates related to action observation in expert archers.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Yang-Tae; Seo, Jee-Hye; Song, Hui-Jin; Yoo, Done-Sik; Lee, Hui Joong; Lee, Jongmin; Lee, Gunyoung; Kwon, Eunjin; Kim, Jin Goo; Chang, Yongmin

2011-10-01

A growing body of evidence suggests that activity of the mirror neuron system is dependent on the observer's motor experience of a given action. It remains unclear, however, whether activity of the mirror neuron system is also associated with the observer's motor experience in sports game. Therefore, the aim of the present study is to investigate differences in activation of the mirror neuron system during action observation between experts and non-archer control subjects. We used video of Western-style archery in which participants were asked to watch the archery movements. Hyperactivation of the premotor and inferior parietal cortex in expert archers relative to non-archer control subjects suggests that the human mirror neuron system could contain and expand representations of the motor repertoire. The fact that dorsomedial prefrontal cortex was more active in expert archers than in non-archer control subjects indicates a spontaneous engagement of theory of mind in experts when watching video of Western-style archery. Compared with the non-archer control subjects, expert archers showed greater activation in the neural system in regions associated with episodic recall from familiar and meaningful information, including the cingulate cortex, retrosplenial cortex, and parahippocampal gyrus. The results demonstrate that expertise effects stimulate brain activity not only in the mirror neuron system but also in the neural networks related to theory of mind and episodic memory. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of a Delphi technique based expert judgement method for LCA valuation - DELPHI II

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hakala, S.; Wilson, B.

1999-01-01

Transparency and certainty are essential qualities for an acceptable and trusted valuation method. Based on the evaluation of the expert judgement method developed in the Delphi I study both of these criteria may be only partially accomplished by such a method. As for the technical procedure the method is well documented and transparency is good. Argumentation of the judgements, however, should be increased. The quality of the valuation indexes is explicitly available, but their certainty is very low for most interventions. The opinions of the experts differ much from each other. How much this depends on different values and how much on differences in knowledge etc. is impossible to assess. Also, how much the technique used and the statistical handling of the expert answers may have impacted the eventual scores of different interventions is difficult to assess. However, application of the expert judgement by means of the Delphi-technique to LCA valuation is a new idea, and, consequently, the method is still very much under development, far from maturity. This should be taken into account when considering the results out of the evaluation of the case study, which was the third of the kind in Europe

Effectiveness of User- and Expert-Driven Web-based Hypertension Programs: an RCT.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Sam; Brooks, Dina; Thomas, Scott G; Eysenbach, Gunther; Nolan, Robert P

2018-04-01

The effectiveness of self-guided Internet-based lifestyle counseling (e-counseling) varies, depending on treatment protocol. Two dominant procedures in e-counseling are expert- and user-driven. The influence of these procedures on hypertension management remains unclear. The objective was to assess whether blood pressure improved with expert-driven or user-driven e-counseling over control intervention in patients with hypertension over a 4-month period. This study used a three-parallel group, double-blind randomized controlled design. In Toronto, Canada, 128 participants (aged 35-74 years) with hypertension were recruited. Participants were recruited using online and poster advertisements. Data collection took place between June 2012 and June 2014. Data were analyzed from October 2014 to December 2016. Controls received a weekly e-mail newsletter regarding hypertension management. The expert-driven group was prescribed a weekly exercise and diet plan (e.g., increase 1,000 steps/day this week). The user-driven group received weekly e-mail, which allowed participants to choose their intervention goals (e.g., [1] feel more confident to change my lifestyle, or [2] self-help tips for exercise or a heart healthy diet). Primary outcome was systolic blood pressure measured at baseline and 4-month follow-up. Secondary outcomes included cholesterol, 10-year Framingham cardiovascular risk, daily steps, and dietary habits. Expert-driven groups showed a greater systolic blood pressure decrease than controls at follow-up (expert-driven versus control: -7.5 mmHg, 95% CI= -12.5, -2.6, p=0.01). Systolic blood pressure reduction did not significantly differ between user- and expert-driven. Expert-driven compared with controls also showed a significant improvement in pulse pressure, cholesterol, and Framingham risk score. The expert-driven intervention was significantly more effective than both user-driven and control groups in increasing daily steps and fruit intake. It may be

Formation of borrower’s bank credit scoring integrated model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

O.V. Lysenok

2017-03-01

Full Text Available The article proposes the borrower’s bank credit scoring model that is of particular relevance in an unstable world and Ukrainian financial markets. The essence of this integrated model is the consistent definition of indicators, which analyze the financial and economic situation and development of scoring that allows to calculate overall index, that is, the integral factor of credit scoring level of the bank to calculate which one uses the formed set of factors characterizing riskiness, profitability and liquidity of the banking institution. The author determines the factors according to their functional purpose; the former ones are divided into four groups: capital adequacy, loan portfolio quality, profitability and liquidity. Each group consists of four indicators; each indicator is assigned thresholds to determine the appropriate credit scoring level of the bank for one or another direction. The higher is the value of the integral factor, the more efficient and less risky is the financial and economic activity of banks and the higher is their credit scoring level. The study concludes that the proposed model for bank credit scoring differs with its transparency and clarity due to use in its implementation only public information. The disadvantages include the presence of the subjective factor in assigning a certain number of points based on expert and normative methods.

Delegating Decisions to Experts

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Hao; Suen, Wing

2004-01-01

We present a model of delegation with self-interested and privately informed experts. A team of experts with extreme but opposite biases is acceptable to a wide range of decision makers with diverse preferences, but the value of expertise from such a team is low. A decision maker wants to appoint experts who are less partisan than he is in order…

Expert-guided optimization for 3D printing of soft and liquid materials

Science.gov (United States)

Abdollahi, Sara; Davis, Alexander; Miller, John H.

2018-01-01

Additive manufacturing (AM) has rapidly emerged as a disruptive technology to build mechanical parts, enabling increased design complexity, low-cost customization and an ever-increasing range of materials. Yet these capabilities have also created an immense challenge in optimizing the large number of process parameters in order achieve a high-performance part. This is especially true for AM of soft, deformable materials and for liquid-like resins that require experimental printing methods. Here, we developed an expert-guided optimization (EGO) strategy to provide structure in exploring and improving the 3D printing of liquid polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS) elastomer resin. EGO uses three steps, starting first with expert screening to select the parameter space, factors, and factor levels. Second is a hill-climbing algorithm to search the parameter space defined by the expert for the best set of parameters. Third is expert decision making to try new factors or a new parameter space to improve on the best current solution. We applied the algorithm to two calibration objects, a hollow cylinder and a five-sided hollow cube that were evaluated based on a multi-factor scoring system. The optimum print settings were then used to print complex PDMS and epoxy 3D objects, including a twisted vase, water drop, toe, and ear, at a level of detail and fidelity previously not obtained. PMID:29621286

Expert-guided optimization for 3D printing of soft and liquid materials.

Science.gov (United States)

Abdollahi, Sara; Davis, Alexander; Miller, John H; Feinberg, Adam W

2018-01-01

Additive manufacturing (AM) has rapidly emerged as a disruptive technology to build mechanical parts, enabling increased design complexity, low-cost customization and an ever-increasing range of materials. Yet these capabilities have also created an immense challenge in optimizing the large number of process parameters in order achieve a high-performance part. This is especially true for AM of soft, deformable materials and for liquid-like resins that require experimental printing methods. Here, we developed an expert-guided optimization (EGO) strategy to provide structure in exploring and improving the 3D printing of liquid polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS) elastomer resin. EGO uses three steps, starting first with expert screening to select the parameter space, factors, and factor levels. Second is a hill-climbing algorithm to search the parameter space defined by the expert for the best set of parameters. Third is expert decision making to try new factors or a new parameter space to improve on the best current solution. We applied the algorithm to two calibration objects, a hollow cylinder and a five-sided hollow cube that were evaluated based on a multi-factor scoring system. The optimum print settings were then used to print complex PDMS and epoxy 3D objects, including a twisted vase, water drop, toe, and ear, at a level of detail and fidelity previously not obtained.

Knowledge acquisition from natural language for expert systems based on classification problem-solving methods

Science.gov (United States)

Gomez, Fernando

1989-01-01

It is shown how certain kinds of domain independent expert systems based on classification problem-solving methods can be constructed directly from natural language descriptions by a human expert. The expert knowledge is not translated into production rules. Rather, it is mapped into conceptual structures which are integrated into long-term memory (LTM). The resulting system is one in which problem-solving, retrieval and memory organization are integrated processes. In other words, the same algorithm and knowledge representation structures are shared by these processes. As a result of this, the system can answer questions, solve problems or reorganize LTM.

Application of expert systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Basden, A

1983-11-01

This article seeks to bring together a number of issues relevant to the application of expert systems by discussing their advantages and limitations, their roles and benefits, and the influence that real-life applications might have on the design of expert systems software. Part of the expert systems strategy of one major chemical company is outlined. Because it was in constructing one particular expert system that many of these issues became important this system is described briefly at the start of the paper and used to illustrate much of the later discussion. It is of the plausible-inference type and has application in the field of materials engineering. 22 references.

Counselor Expert System | Debretsion | Zede Journal

African Journals Online (AJOL)

An expert system plays an important role on alleviating primarily shortage of experts in a specific area of interest. With the help of an expert system, personnel with little expertise can solve problems that require expert knowledge. In this paper all major aspects of an expert system development have been presented.

Scope Complexity Options Risks Excursions (SCORE) Factor Mathematical Description.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gearhart, Jared Lee [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Samberson, Jonell Nicole [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Shettigar, Subhasini [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Jungels, John [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Welch, Kimberly M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Jones, Dean A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

2017-03-01

The purpose of the Scope, Complexity, Options, Risks, Excursions (SCORE) model is to estimate the relative complexity of design variants of future warhead options, resulting in scores. SCORE factors extend this capability by providing estimates of complexity relative to a base system (i.e., all design options are normalized to one weapon system). First, a clearly defined set of scope elements for a warhead option is established. The complexity of each scope element is estimated by Subject Matter Experts (SMEs), including a level of uncertainty, relative to a specific reference system. When determining factors, complexity estimates for a scope element can be directly tied to the base system or chained together via comparable scope elements in a string of reference systems that ends with the base system. The SCORE analysis process is a growing multi-organizational Nuclear Security Enterprise (NSE) effort, under the management of the NA-12 led Enterprise Modeling and Analysis Consortium (EMAC). Historically, it has provided the data elicitation, integration, and computation needed to support the out-year Life Extension Program (LEP) cost estimates included in the Stockpile Stewardship Management Plan (SSMP).

Expert Panel Elicitation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jensen, M. [Swedish Radiation Protection Authority, Stockholm (Sweden). Dept. of Waste Management and Environmental Protection; Hora, S.C. [Univ. of Hawaii, Hilo, HI (United States)

2005-09-15

Scientists are now frequently in a situation where data cannot be easily assessed, since they may have conflicting or uncertain sources. While expert judgment reflects private choices, it is possible both reduce the personal aspect as well as in crease confidence in the judgments by using formal protocols for choice and elicitation of experts. A full-scale elicitation made on seismicity following glaciation, now in its late phase and presented here in a preliminary form, illustrates the value of the technique and some essential issues in connection with the decision to launch such a project. The results show an unusual low variation between the experts.

The contribution of research on expertise to understanding of expert thinking

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Krnjaić Zora

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Expertise is determined based on the high level of mastery of knowledge and skills in different areas of human activities (science, art, sports and other less formal domains. This paper explores the contribution of empirical research on expertise to understanding of the nature of expert thinking. For that purpose we have compiled an overview and performed an analysis of the findings of relevant research on expertise based on different approaches and paradigms. We have included the studies that researched experts singled out based on their exceptional performances in different domains (absolute expertise and the studies based on comparing experts with novices (relative expertise. We have analyzed the studies using different paradigms: psychometric and cognitive paradigms, as well as the new offshoot, the paradigm based on viewing giftedness as developing expertise. Research results provide empirically grounded findings on the characteristics of expert thinking and consistently point to the fact that knowledge is the core of expertise. The characteristics of expert knowledge are operationalized via the quantity and organization of knowledge and the mastery of deep contents and knowledge systems, which enables the recognition of rules, models and information sets, as well as the use of knowledge in further studying, detecting and solving different problems. It can be concluded that research findings on expertise are one of the foundations in the conceptualization of expert thinking. They significantly contribute to obtaining an insight into the way in which knowledge shapes thought and into understanding the mechanisms of demonstrating knowledge in the mental processes of experts.

World Health Organization Estimates of the Relative Contributions of Food to the Burden of Disease Due to Selected Foodborne Hazards: A Structured Expert Elicitation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hald, Tine; Aspinall, Willy; Devleesschauwer, Brecht

2016-01-01

transmission routes. These findings are essential for global burden of FBD estimates. While gaps exist, we believe the estimates presented here are the best current source of guidance to support decision makers when allocating resources for control and intervention, and for future research initiatives......., seven other infectious diseases and one chemical (lead). Experts were identified through international networks followed by social network sampling. Final selection of experts was based on their experience including international working experience. Enrolled experts were scored on their ability to judge...

THE GHOST IN THE MACHINE? THE VALUE OF EXPERT ADVICE IN THE PRODUCTION OF EVIDENCE-BASED GUIDANCE: A MIXED METHODS STUDY OF THE NICE INTERVENTIONAL PROCEDURES PROGRAMME.

Science.gov (United States)

Oyebode, Oyinlola; Patrick, Hannah; Walker, Alexander; Campbell, Bruce; Powell, John

2016-01-01

The aim of this study was to determine the aspects of expert advice that decision makers find most useful in the development of evidence-based guidance and to identify the characteristics of experts providing the most useful advice. First, semi-structured interviews were conducted with seventeen members of the Interventional Procedures Advisory Committee of the UK's National Institute of Health and Care Excellence. Interviews examined the usefulness of expert advice during guidance development. Transcripts were analyzed inductively to identify themes. Second, data were extracted from 211 experts' questionnaires for forty-one consecutive procedures. Usefulness of advice was scored using an index developed through the qualitative work. Associations between usefulness score and characteristics of the expert advisor were investigated using univariate and multivariate analyses. Expert opinion was seen as a valued complement to empirical evidence, providing context and tacit knowledge unavailable in published literature, but helpful for interpreting it. Interviewees also valued advice on the training and experience required to perform a procedure, on patient selection criteria and the place of a procedure within a clinical management pathway. Limitations of bias in expert opinion were widely acknowledged and skepticism expressed regarding the anecdotal nature of advice on safety or efficacy outcomes. Quantitative analysis demonstrated that the most useful advice was given by clinical experts with direct personal experience of the procedure, particularly research experience. Evidence-based guidance production is often characterized as a rational, pipeline process. This ignores the valuable role that expert opinion plays in guidance development, complementing and supporting the interpretation of empirical data.

The human interactome knowledge base (hint-kb): An integrative human protein interaction database enriched with predicted protein–protein interaction scores using a novel hybrid technique

KAUST Repository

Theofilatos, Konstantinos A.

2013-07-12

Proteins are the functional components of many cellular processes and the identification of their physical protein–protein interactions (PPIs) is an area of mature academic research. Various databases have been developed containing information about experimentally and computationally detected human PPIs as well as their corresponding annotation data. However, these databases contain many false positive interactions, are partial and only a few of them incorporate data from various sources. To overcome these limitations, we have developed HINT-KB (http://biotools.ceid.upatras.gr/hint-kb/), a knowledge base that integrates data from various sources, provides a user-friendly interface for their retrieval, cal-culatesasetoffeaturesofinterest and computesaconfidence score for every candidate protein interaction. This confidence score is essential for filtering the false positive interactions which are present in existing databases, predicting new protein interactions and measuring the frequency of each true protein interaction. For this reason, a novel machine learning hybrid methodology, called (Evolutionary Kalman Mathematical Modelling—EvoKalMaModel), was used to achieve an accurate and interpretable scoring methodology. The experimental results indicated that the proposed scoring scheme outperforms existing computational methods for the prediction of PPIs.

Sparse Distributed Memory: understanding the speed and robustness of expert memory

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marcelo Salhab Brogliato

2014-04-01

Full Text Available How can experts, sometimes in exacting detail, almost immediately and very precisely recall memory items from a vast repertoire? The problem in which we will be interested concerns models of theoretical neuroscience that could explain the speed and robustness of an expert's recollection. The approach is based on Sparse Distributed Memory, which has been shown to be plausible, both in a neuroscientific and in a psychological manner, in a number of ways. A crucial characteristic concerns the limits of human recollection, the `tip-of-tongue' memory event--which is found at a non-linearity in the model. We expand the theoretical framework, deriving an optimization formula to solve to this non-linearity. Numerical results demonstrate how the higher frequency of rehearsal, through work or study, immediately increases the robustness and speed associated with expert memory.

A Semiautomated Framework for Integrating Expert Knowledge into Disease Marker Identification

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wang, Jing; Webb-Robertson, Bobbie-Jo M.; Matzke, Melissa M.; Varnum, Susan M.; Brown, Joseph N.; Riensche, Roderick M.; Adkins, Joshua N.; Jacobs, Jon M.; Hoidal, John R.; Scholand, Mary Beth; Pounds, Joel G.; Blackburn, Michael R.; Rodland, Karin D.; McDermott, Jason E.

2013-10-01

Background. The availability of large complex data sets generated by high throughput technologies has enabled the recent proliferation of disease biomarker studies. However, a recurring problem in deriving biological information from large data sets is how to best incorporate expert knowledge into the biomarker selection process. Objective. To develop a generalizable framework that can incorporate expert knowledge into data-driven processes in a semiautomated way while providing a metric for optimization in a biomarker selection scheme. Methods. The framework was implemented as a pipeline consisting of five components for the identification of signatures from integrated clustering (ISIC). Expert knowledge was integrated into the biomarker identification process using the combination of two distinct approaches; a distance-based clustering approach and an expert knowledge-driven functional selection. Results. The utility of the developed framework ISIC was demonstrated on proteomics data from a study of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Biomarker candidates were identified in a mouse model using ISIC and validated in a study of a human cohort. Conclusions. Expert knowledge can be introduced into a biomarker discovery process in different ways to enhance the robustness of selected marker candidates. Developing strategies for extracting orthogonal and robust features from large data sets increases the chances of success in biomarker identification.

Expert System Diagnosis of Cataract Eyes Using Fuzzy Mamdani Method

Science.gov (United States)

Santosa, I.; Romla, L.; Herawati, S.

2018-01-01

Cataracts are eye diseases characterized by cloudy or opacity of the lens of the eye by changing the colour of black into grey-white which slowly continues to grow and develop without feeling pain and pain that can cause blindness in human vision. Therefore, researchers make an expert system of cataract eye disease diagnosis by using Fuzzy Mamdani and how to care. The fuzzy method can convert the crisp value to linguistic value by fuzzification and includes in the rule. So this system produces an application program that can help the public in knowing cataract eye disease and how to care based on the symptoms suffered. From the results of the design implementation and testing of expert system applications to diagnose eye disease cataracts, it can be concluded that from a trial of 50 cases of data, obtained test results accuracy between system predictions with expert predictions obtained a value of 78% truth.

Surgical experts: born or made?

Science.gov (United States)

Sadideen, Hazim; Alvand, Abtin; Saadeddin, Munir; Kneebone, Roger

2013-01-01

The concept of surgical expertise and the processes involved in its development are topical, and there is a constant drive to identify reliable measures of expert performance in surgery. This review explores the notion of whether surgical experts are "born" or "made", with reference to educational theory and pertinent literature. Peer-reviewed publications, books, and online resources on surgical education, expertise and training were reviewed. Important themes and aspects of expertise acquisition were identified in order to better understand the concept of a surgical expert. The definition of surgical expertise and several important aspects of its development are highlighted. Innate talent plays an important role, but is insufficient on its own to produce a surgical expert. Multiple theories that explore motor skill acquisition and memory are relevant, and Ericsson's theory of the development of competence followed by deliberate self-practice has been especially influential. Psychomotor and non-technical skills are necessary for progression in the current climate in light of our training curricula; surgical experts are adaptive experts who excel in these. The literature suggests that surgical expertise is reached through practice; surgical experts are made, not born. A deeper understanding of the nature of expert performance and its development will ensure that surgical education training programmes are of the highest possible quality. Surgical educators should aim to develop an expertise-based approach, with expert performance as the benchmark. Copyright © 2013 Surgical Associates Ltd. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Law for nuclear experts only

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wagner, H [Kernforschungszentrum Karlsruhe G.m.b.H. (Germany, F.R.)

1980-02-01

The Federal Ministry of the Interior is preparing an ordinance on expert consultants under the Atomic Energy Act which, among other topics, is to include legal norms for the criteria to be met by experts in terms of non-partisanship, training, capabilities, technical equipment and cooperation in expert organizations of members of various scientific and technical disciplines. A summary of general criteria relating to the qualification, selection and status of experts called in by the legislative and executive branches and by courts of law, which could be organized as a series of guidelines without any original qualities of legal norms, could be recommended in view of the increasing quantitative and qualitative importance of experts. However, passing an ordinance merely fixing and putting into concrete terms the image of an 'expert under the Atomic Energy Act' is intolerable, because the status of scientific and technical experts by far extends beyond the field of nuclear law in our industrial society characterized by a far reaching division of labor. Weak points in the organization of expert services are not confined to technology or nuclear power. Separate rules establishing legal norms are not convincing also for reasons of technology policy and legal policy as well as for those of social psychology and practice.

Expert Systems for the Analytical Laboratory.

Science.gov (United States)

de Monchy, Allan R.; And Others

1988-01-01

Discusses two computer problem solving programs: rule-based expert systems and decision analysis expert systems. Explores the application of expert systems to automated chemical analyses. Presents six factors to consider before using expert systems. (MVL)

A PC-based expert system for nondestructive testing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shankar, R.; Williams, R.; Smith, C.; Selby, G.

1991-01-01

Rule-based decision logic which can emulate problem-solving expertise of humans is being explored for power plant nondestructive evaluation (NDE) applications. This paper describes an effort underway at the EPRI NDE Center to assist in the interpretation of NDE data acquired by automatic systems during ultrasonic weld examination of boiling-water reactors (BWRs). A personal computer (PC) -based expert system shell was used to encode rules and assemble knowledge to address the discrimination of intergranular stress corrosion cracking (IGSCC) from benign reflectors in the inspection of pipe-to-component welds. The rules attempt to factor in plant inspection history, ultrasonic examination data nd, if available, radiography testing data; a majority of them deal with specific ultrasonic signal temporal and spatial behavior during automatic scanning. The paper describes the efforts in the development of the expert system

NPPO-TINA: An expert system acting as catalyst for decision-making processes of the reactor operator

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gieci, A.; Gyarfas, F.

1991-01-01

The prototype of the NPPO-TINA expert system (Nuclear Power Plant Operation-Transparent Inference Architecture) is described. This system has been developed to support the entire decision-making intellectual activity in the control of complex technological processes. One of the ways leading to human-machine symbiosis in the integrated cognitive system is outlined. The starting model of the situation in which the operator's problem-solving task begins is described. The characteristics of human behavior in decision-making are analyzed, and the moments are explained of the most suitable use of the expert system to support the whole intellectual activity, in knowledge-based decision-making by way of problem solving. The TINA environment for the formation of expert systems is described, including the hierarchic dynamic inference control. The process of building up the NPPO-TINA expert system is outlined, and the results of testing the system prototype on the problem of an accident of the nuclear power plant primary circuit due to a failure of the coolant make-up pumps are given. (Z.S.). 10 figs., 11 refs

In search of an integral conceptual definition of frailty: opinions of experts.

Science.gov (United States)

Gobbens, Robbert J J; Luijkx, Katrien G; Wijnen-Sponselee, Maria Th; Schols, Jos M G A

2010-06-01

There are many different conceptual definitions of frailty in circulation. Most of these definitions focus mainly on physical problems affecting older people. Only a few also draw attention to other domains of human functioning such as the psychological domain. The authors of this article fear that this could lead to fragmentation of care for frail older people. The aim is to develop an integral conceptual definition of frailty that starts from the premise of a holistic view of the person. To achieve this, a literature search was carried out. Thereafter a group of experts (N=20) were consulted, both verbally during 2 expert meetings and via a written questionnaire. These experts were asked which existing conceptual definition of frailty places most stress on the integral functioning of older people. The experts expressed a clear preference for one of the conceptual definitions. The result of the literature search and the consultation with the experts led to a new integral conceptual definition of frailty. The conceptual definition is intended to offer a framework for an operational definition of frailty for identifying frail older people. Copyright 2010 American Medical Directors Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Expert system application for prioritizing preventive actions for shift work: shift expert.

Science.gov (United States)

Esen, Hatice; Hatipoğlu, Tuğçen; Cihan, Ahmet; Fiğlali, Nilgün

2017-09-19

Shift patterns, work hours, work arrangements and worker motivations have increasingly become key factors for job performance. The main objective of this article is to design an expert system that identifies the negative effects of shift work and prioritizes mitigation efforts according to their importance in preventing these negative effects. The proposed expert system will be referred to as the shift expert. A thorough literature review is conducted to determine the effects of shift work on workers. Our work indicates that shift work is linked to demographic variables, sleepiness and fatigue, health and well-being, and social and domestic conditions. These parameters constitute the sections of a questionnaire designed to focus on 26 important issues related to shift work. The shift expert is then constructed to provide prevention advice at the individual and organizational levels, and it prioritizes this advice using a fuzzy analytic hierarchy process model, which considers comparison matrices provided by users during the prioritization process. An empirical study of 61 workers working on three rotating shifts is performed. After administering the questionnaires, the collected data are analyzed statistically, and then the shift expert produces individual and organizational recommendations for these workers.

Expert system applications to nuclear plant for enhancement of productivity and performance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sun, B.; Cain, D.; Naser, J.; Colley, R.; Hirota, N.

1988-01-01

Expert systems, a major essence of the artificial intelligence (AI) technology, are referred to as computer software and hardware systems which are designed to capture and emulate the knowledge, reasoning, judgment, and to store the expertise of humans. Two parallel efforts are being performed at the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) to help the electric utility industry take advantage of the expert system technology. The first effort is the development of expert system building tools which are tailored to electric utility industry applications. The second effort is the development of expert system application prototypes. These two efforts complement each other. The application development tests the tools and identifies additional tool capabilities which are required. The tool development helps define the applications which can be successfully developed. This paper summarizes a number of research projects which are being performed at EPRI in both the areas of expert system building tool development and expert system applications to operations and maintenance. The AI technology as demonstrated by the development is being established as a credible technological tool for the electric utility industry. A challenge to transferring the expert systems technology to the utility industry is to gain utility users' acceptance of this modern information technology. To achieve successful technology transfer, the technology developers need to (1) understand the problems which can be addressed successfully using AI technology, (2) involve with users throughout the development and testing phases, and (3) demonstrate the benefits of the technology by the users

Comparison of human expert and computer-automated systems using magnitude-squared coherence (MSC) and bootstrap distribution statistics for the interpretation of pattern electroretinograms (PERGs) in infants with optic nerve hypoplasia (ONH).

Science.gov (United States)

Fisher, Anthony C; McCulloch, Daphne L; Borchert, Mark S; Garcia-Filion, Pamela; Fink, Cassandra; Eleuteri, Antonio; Simpson, David M

2015-08-01

Pattern electroretinograms (PERGs) have inherently low signal-to-noise ratios and can be difficult to detect when degraded by pathology or noise. We compare an objective system for automated PERG analysis with expert human interpretation in children with optic nerve hypoplasia (ONH) with PERGs ranging from clear to undetectable. PERGs were recorded uniocularly with chloral hydrate sedation in children with ONH (aged 3.5-35 months). Stimuli were reversing checks of four sizes focused using an optical system incorporating the cycloplegic refraction. Forty PERG records were analysed; 20 selected at random and 20 from eyes with good vision (fellow eyes or eyes with mild ONH) from over 300 records. Two experts identified P50 and N95 of the PERGs after manually deleting trials with movement artefact, slow-wave EEG (4-8 Hz) or other noise from raw data for 150 check reversals. The automated system first identified present/not-present responses using a magnitude-squared coherence criterion and then, for responses confirmed as present, estimated the P50 and N95 cardinal positions as the turning points in local third-order polynomials fitted in the -3 dB bandwidth [0.25 … 45] Hz. Confidence limits were estimated from bootstrap re-sampling with replacement. The automated system uses an interactive Internet-available webpage tool (see http://clinengnhs.liv.ac.uk/esp_perg_1.htm). The automated system detected 28 PERG signals above the noise level (p ≤ 0.05 for H0). Good subjective quality ratings were indicative of significant PERGs; however, poor subjective quality did not necessarily predict non-significant signals. P50 and N95 implicit times showed good agreement between the two experts and between experts and the automated system. For the N95 amplitude measured to P50, the experts differed by an average of 13% consistent with differing interpretations of peaks within noise, while the automated amplitude measure was highly correlated with the expert measures but was

NTP-CERHR EXPERT PANEL REPORT ON THE REPRODUCTIVE AND DEVELOPMENTAL TOXICITY OF AMPHETAMINE AND METHAMPHETAMINE.

Science.gov (United States)

A manuscript describes the results of an expert panel meeting of the NTP Center for the Evaluation of Risks to Human Reproduction (CERHR). The purpose CERHR is to provide timely, unbiased, scientifically sound evaluations of human and experimental evidence for adverse effects ...

Expert System for Diagnosis of Hepatitis B Ibrahim Mailafiya, Fatima ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

the rice plant appearing during their life span. [1]. ... use of intelligent systems such as fuzzy logic, artificial neural network and genetic algorithm have been developed [5]. ... The liver being the ..... doctors but to assist them in the quality ... P.Santosh Kumar Patra, An Expert System for Diagnosis of Human diseases, 2010.

Robot learning from human teachers

CERN Document Server

Chernova, Sonia

2014-01-01

Learning from Demonstration (LfD) explores techniques for learning a task policy from examples provided by a human teacher. The field of LfD has grown into an extensive body of literature over the past 30 years, with a wide variety of approaches for encoding human demonstrations and modeling skills and tasks. Additionally, we have recently seen a focus on gathering data from non-expert human teachers (i.e., domain experts but not robotics experts). In this book, we provide an introduction to the field with a focus on the unique technical challenges associated with designing robots that learn f

Expert Involvement and Adherence to Medical Evidence in Medical Mobile Phone Apps

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Subhi, Yousif; Bube, Sarah Hjartbro; Rolskov Bojsen, Signe

2015-01-01

BACKGROUND: Both clinicians and patients use medical mobile phone apps. Anyone can publish medical apps, which leads to contents with variable quality that may have a serious impact on human lives. We herein provide an overview of the prevalence of expert involvement in app development and whether...... or not app contents adhere to current medical evidence. OBJECTIVE: To systematically review studies evaluating expert involvement or adherence of app content to medical evidence in medical mobile phone apps. METHODS: We systematically searched 3 databases (PubMed, The Cochrane Library, and EMBASE......), and included studies evaluating expert involvement or adherence of app content to medical evidence in medical mobile phone apps. Two authors performed data extraction independently. Qualitative analysis of the included studies was performed. RESULTS: Based on inclusion criteria, 52 studies were included...

An expert system for automated robotic grasping

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stansfield, S.A.

1990-01-01

Many US Department of Energy sites and facilities will be environmentally remediated during the next several decades. A number of the restoration activities (e.g., decontamination and decommissioning of inactive nuclear facilities) can only be carried out by remote means and will be manipulation-intensive tasks. Experience has shown that manipulation tasks are especially slow and fatiguing for the human operator of a remote manipulator. In this paper, the authors present a rule-based expert system for automated, dextrous robotic grasping. This system interprets the features of an object to generate hand shaping and wrist orientation for a robot hand and arm. The system can be used in several different ways to lessen the demands on the human operator of a remote manipulation system - either as a fully autonomous grasping system or one that generates grasping options for a human operator and then automatically carries out the selected option

Experts in science and society

CERN Document Server

Gigerenzer, Gerd

2004-01-01

In today's complex world, we have come to rely increasingly on those who have expertise in specific areas and can bring their knowledge to bear on crucial social, political and scientific questions. Taking the viewpoint that experts are consulted when there is something important at stake for an individual, a group, or society at large, Experts in Science and Society explores expertise as a relational concept. How do experts balance their commitment to science with that to society? How does a society actually determine that a person has expertise? What personal traits are valued in an expert? From where does the expert derive authority? What makes new forms of expertise emerge? These and related questions are addressed from a wide range of areas in order to be inclusive, as well as to demonstrate similarities across areas. Likewise, in order to be culturally comparative, this volume includes examples and discussions of experts in different countries and even in different time periods. The topics include the r...

Expert system in PNC, 5

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tobita, Yoshimasa; Yamaguchi, Takashi; Matsumoto, Mitsuo; Ono, Kiyoshi.

1990-01-01

The computer code system which can evaluate the mass balance and cycle cost in nuclear fuel cycle has been developing a PNC using an artificial intelligence technique. This system is composed of the expert system, data base and analysis codes. The expert system is the most important one in the system and the content of the expert system is explained in this paper. The expert system has the three functions. The first is the function of understanding the meaning of user's questions by natural language, the second is the function of selecting the best way to solve the problem given by the user using the knowledge which is already installed in the system, and the last is the function of answering the questions. The knowledge of the experts installed in the expert system is represented by the frame-type rules. Therefore, the knowledge will be simply added to the system, and consequently the system will be easily extended. (author)

A risk perception gap? Comparing expert, producer and consumer prioritization of food hazard controls.

Science.gov (United States)

Hartmann, Christina; Hübner, Philipp; Siegrist, Michael

2018-06-01

Using a survey approach, the study examined how experts (i.e. food control representatives), producers (i.e. food industry representatives) and consumers prioritized control activities for 28 hazards related to food and other everyday items. The investigated hazards encompassed a wide range of safety issues, including health risks, consumer deception and poor food hygiene behaviour. The participants included 41 experts, 138 producers and 243 consumers from the German- and French-speaking parts of Switzerland. Based on detailed descriptions of the hazards, they were asked to rank these on a score sheet in terms of the perceived importance of monitoring by food control authorities. A between-group comparison of average rankings showed that consumers and experts differed significantly in relation to 17 of the 28 hazards. While the experts assigned higher priority to hazards related to everyday items such as nitrosamine in mascara and chromium VI in leather products, producers and consumers tended to prioritize products related to plant treatment and genetic modification of food and feeds. Producer and consumer rankings of the hazards were highly correlated (r = .96, p < .001). Rankings were also similar among participants from the two cultural regions (i.e. German and French-speaking parts of Switzerland). Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Experts on public trial

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Blok, Anders

2007-01-01

a case study of the May 2003 Danish consensus conference on environmental economics as a policy tool, the article reflects on the politics of expert authority permeating practices of public participation. Adopting concepts from the sociology of scientific knowledge (SSK), the conference is seen......-than-successful defense in the citizen perspective. Further, consensus conferences are viewed alternatively as "expert dissent conferences," serving to disclose a multiplicity of expert commitments. From this perspective, some challenges for democratizing expertise through future exercises in public participation...

An expert system for ranking companies and investments: wood industry case

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hliadis Lazaros

2003-01-01

Full Text Available Wood industry is a very important part of both the Greek Rural and industrial sector. The discovery of the differentiation in the level of growth and in the quality of financial management between the Greek wood companies can provide very important aid in the design of an effective rural development policy. The evaluation and ranking of Greek wood companies based on actual financial data is a very complicated task and it requires expertise knowledge and skills. On the other hand a computer expert system can perform validation and evaluation in an efficient way and can substitute human experts. An expert system was designed and developed towards this direction. It uses multicriteria analysis for each one of the wood companies based on actual financial data and it applies fundamental principles of fuzzy logic in order to calculate the expected intervals of flows for the following years. .

Consensus coding sequence (CCDS) database: a standardized set of human and mouse protein-coding regions supported by expert curation.

Science.gov (United States)

Pujar, Shashikant; O'Leary, Nuala A; Farrell, Catherine M; Loveland, Jane E; Mudge, Jonathan M; Wallin, Craig; Girón, Carlos G; Diekhans, Mark; Barnes, If; Bennett, Ruth; Berry, Andrew E; Cox, Eric; Davidson, Claire; Goldfarb, Tamara; Gonzalez, Jose M; Hunt, Toby; Jackson, John; Joardar, Vinita; Kay, Mike P; Kodali, Vamsi K; Martin, Fergal J; McAndrews, Monica; McGarvey, Kelly M; Murphy, Michael; Rajput, Bhanu; Rangwala, Sanjida H; Riddick, Lillian D; Seal, Ruth L; Suner, Marie-Marthe; Webb, David; Zhu, Sophia; Aken, Bronwen L; Bruford, Elspeth A; Bult, Carol J; Frankish, Adam; Murphy, Terence; Pruitt, Kim D

2018-01-04

The Consensus Coding Sequence (CCDS) project provides a dataset of protein-coding regions that are identically annotated on the human and mouse reference genome assembly in genome annotations produced independently by NCBI and the Ensembl group at EMBL-EBI. This dataset is the product of an international collaboration that includes NCBI, Ensembl, HUGO Gene Nomenclature Committee, Mouse Genome Informatics and University of California, Santa Cruz. Identically annotated coding regions, which are generated using an automated pipeline and pass multiple quality assurance checks, are assigned a stable and tracked identifier (CCDS ID). Additionally, coordinated manual review by expert curators from the CCDS collaboration helps in maintaining the integrity and high quality of the dataset. The CCDS data are available through an interactive web page (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/CCDS/CcdsBrowse.cgi) and an FTP site (ftp://ftp.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pub/CCDS/). In this paper, we outline the ongoing work, growth and stability of the CCDS dataset and provide updates on new collaboration members and new features added to the CCDS user interface. We also present expert curation scenarios, with specific examples highlighting the importance of an accurate reference genome assembly and the crucial role played by input from the research community. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Nucleic Acids Research 2017.

Expert views on most suitable monetary incentives on food to stimulate healthy eating.

Science.gov (United States)

Waterlander, Wilma E; Steenhuis, Ingrid H M; de Vet, Emely; Schuit, Albertine J; Seidell, Jacob C

2010-06-01

Pricing strategies are an important component in the marketing mix and may also be useful in stimulating healthier food choices. However, due to competing interests and feasibility problems, the introduction of pricing strategies is complicated. For successfully introducing food pricing strategies, it is essential to explore incentives that are not only promising but also realizable and being approved by different sectors. We aimed to assemble a list of pricing strategies by exploring expert views using the Delphi method. Subjects included experts from academia, industry, retail, agriculture, policymakers, consumers and non-governmental organizations. Data were collected in three rounds. In round one, experts designed promising pricing strategies. Based on a time-budget model incorporating Sleep, Leisure, Occupation, Transportation and Home-based activities, these strategies were in the subsequent rounds judged on several criteria. Results were analysed using median and interquartile deviations scores. We found fair consensus levels among experts and a varied list of promising pricing strategies. The panel agreed on the potential success of offering small presents, providing price-cuts on healthy foods and discounting healthier foods more frequently. Also, it was found that experts gave higher rates to pricing strategies for which the implementation responsibilities could be placed elsewhere. The resulted list of promising monetary incentives is an essential first step for the future design of pricing strategies. Following this study, it is important to determine how to make solid agreements on responsibility and implementation issues. Also, consumer perceptions regarding the proposed pricing strategies should be studied.

Serus, an expert system for the ultrasonic examination of fuel rods

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gondard, C.; Papezyk, F.; Wident, P.

1987-01-01

The use of pattern recognition functions and the modelization of the human expert reasoning, allow the automatic identification of defects in welds or structures. The proposed application uses an ultrasonic examination to detect and classify 3 types of defects in end plug welds of PWR fuel rods

PSG-EXPERT. An expert system for the diagnosis of sleep disorders.

Science.gov (United States)

Fred, A; Filipe, J; Partinen, M; Paiva, T

2000-01-01

This paper describes PSG-EXPERT, an expert system in the domain of sleep disorders exploring polysomnographic data. The developed software tool is addressed from two points of view: (1)--as an integrated environment for the development of diagnosis-oriented expert systems; (2)--as an auxiliary diagnosis tool in the particular domain of sleep disorders. Developed over a Windows platform, this software tool extends one of the most popular shells--CLIPS (C Language Integrated Production System) with the following features: backward chaining engine; graph-based explanation facilities; knowledge editor including a fuzzy fact editor and a rules editor, with facts-rules integrity checking; belief revision mechanism; built-in case generator and validation module. It therefore provides graphical support for knowledge acquisition, edition, explanation and validation. From an application domain point of view, PSG-Expert is an auxiliary diagnosis system for sleep disorders based on polysomnographic data, that aims at assisting the medical expert in his diagnosis task by providing automatic analysis of polysomnographic data, summarising the results of this analysis in terms of a report of major findings and possible diagnosis consistent with the polysomnographic data. Sleep disorders classification follows the International Classification of Sleep Disorders. Major features of the system include: browsing on patients data records; structured navigation on Sleep Disorders descriptions according to ASDA definitions; internet links to related pages; diagnosis consistent with polysomnographic data; graphical user-interface including graph-based explanatory facilities; uncertainty modelling and belief revision; production of reports; connection to remote databases.

Expert Systems: An Overview for Teacher-Librarians.

Science.gov (United States)

Orwig, Gary; Barron, Ann

1992-01-01

Provides an overview of expert systems for teacher librarians. Highlights include artificial intelligence and expert systems; the development of the MYCIN medical expert system; rule-based expert systems; the use of expert system shells to develop a specific system; and how to select an appropriate application for an expert system. (11 references)…

Rank aggregation of local expert knowledge for conservation planning of the critically endangered saola.

Science.gov (United States)

Wilkinson, Nicholas M; Van Duc, Luong

2017-06-01

There has been much recent interest in using local knowledge and expert opinion for conservation planning, particularly for hard-to-detect species. Although it is possible to ask for direct estimation of quantities such as population size, relative abundance is easier to estimate. However, an expert's knowledge is often geographically restricted relative to the area of interest. Combining (or aggregating) experts' assessments of relative abundance is difficult when each expert only knows a part of the area of interest. We used Google's PageRank algorithm to aggregate ranked abundance scores elicited from local experts through a rapid rural-appraisal method. We applied this technique to conservation planning for the saola (Pseudoryx nghetinhensis), a poorly known bovid. Near a priority landscape for the species, composed of 3 contiguous protected areas, we asked groups of local people to indicate relative abundances of saola and other species by placing beans on community maps. For each village, we used this information to rank areas within the knowledge area of that village for saola abundance. We used simulations to compare alternative methods to aggregate the rankings from the different villages. The best-performing method was then used to produce a single map of relative abundance across the entire landscape, an area larger than that known to any one village. This map has informed prioritization of surveys and conservation action in the continued absence of direct information about the saola. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

Unintended Side Effects of Digital Transition: Perspectives of Japanese Experts

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Masahiro Sugiyama

2017-11-01

Full Text Available The core of the digital transition is the representation of all kinds of real-world entities and processes and an increasing number of cognitive processes by digital information and algorithms on computers. These allow for seemingly unlimited storage, operation, retrieval, and transmission capacities that make digital tools economically available for all domains of society and empower human action, particularly combined with real-world interfaces such as displays, robots, sensors, 3D printers, etc. Digital technologies are general-purpose technologies providing unprecedented potential benefits for sustainability. However, they will bring about a multitude of potential unintended side effects, and this demands a transdisciplinary discussion on unwanted societal changes as well as a shift in science from analog to digital modeling and structure. Although social discourse has begun, the topical scope and regional coverage have been limited. Here, we report on an expert roundtable on digital transition held in February 2017 in Tokyo, Japan. Drawing on a variety of disciplinary backgrounds, our discussions highlight the importance of cultural contexts and the need to bridge local and global conversations. Although Japanese experts did mention side effects, their focus was on how to ensure that AI and robots could coexist with humans. Such a perspective is not well appreciated everywhere outside Japan. Stakeholder dialogues have already begun in Japan, but greater efforts are needed to engage a broader collection of experts in addition to stakeholders to broaden the social debate.

Accuracy and interobserver agreement between MR-non-expert radiologists and MR-experts in reading MRI for suspected appendicitis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Leeuwenburgh, Marjolein M.N., E-mail: m.m.leeuwenburgh@amc.uva.nl [Department of Surgery, Academic Medical Center, University of Amsterdam (Netherlands); Department of Radiology, Academic Medical Center, University of Amsterdam (Netherlands); Wiarda, Bart M. [Department of Radiology, Alkmaar Medical Center, Alkmaar (Netherlands); Jensch, Sebastiaan [Department of Radiology, Sint Lucas Andreas Hospital, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Wouter van Es, H. [Department of Radiology, Sint Antonius Hospital, Nieuwegein (Netherlands); Stockmann, Hein B.A.C. [Department of Surgery, Kennemer Gasthuis, Haarlem (Netherlands); Gratama, Jan Willem C. [Department of Radiology, Gelre Hospitals, Apeldoorn (Netherlands); Cobben, Lodewijk P.J. [Department of Radiology, Haaglanden Medical Center, Leidschendam (Netherlands); Bossuyt, Patrick M.M. [Department of Clinical Epidemiology, Academic Medical Center, University of Amsterdam (Netherlands); Boermeester, Marja A. [Department of Surgery, Academic Medical Center, University of Amsterdam (Netherlands); Stoker, Jaap [Department of Radiology, Academic Medical Center, University of Amsterdam (Netherlands)

2014-01-15

Objective: To compare accuracy and interobserver agreement between radiologists with limited experience in the evaluation of abdominal MRI (non-experts), and radiologists with longer MR reading experience (experts), in reading MRI in patients with suspected appendicitis. Methods: MR imaging was performed in 223 adult patients with suspected appendicitis and read independently by two members of a team of eight MR-inexperienced radiologists, who were trained with 100 MR examinations previous to this study (non-expert reading). Expert reading was performed by two radiologists with a larger abdominal MR experience (>500 examinations) in consensus. A final diagnosis was assigned after three months based on all available information, except MRI findings. We estimated MRI sensitivity and specificity for appendicitis and for all urgent diagnoses separately. Interobserver agreement was evaluated using kappa statistics. Results: Urgent diagnoses were assigned to 147 of 223 patients; 117 had appendicitis. Sensitivity for appendicitis was 0.89 by MR-non-expert radiologists and 0.97 in MR-expert reading (p = 0.01). Specificity was 0.83 for MR-non-experts versus 0.93 for MR-expert reading (p = 0.002). MR-experts and MR-non-experts agreed on appendicitis in 89% of cases (kappa 0.78). Accuracy in detecting urgent diagnoses was significantly lower in MR-non-experts compared to MR-expert reading: sensitivity 0.84 versus 0.95 (p < 0.001) and specificity 0.71 versus 0.82 (p = 0.03), respectively. Agreement on urgent diagnoses was 83% (kappa 0.63). Conclusion: MR-non-experts have sufficient sensitivity in reading MRI in patients with suspected appendicitis, with good agreement with MR-expert reading, but accuracy of MR-expert reading was higher.

Accuracy and interobserver agreement between MR-non-expert radiologists and MR-experts in reading MRI for suspected appendicitis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Leeuwenburgh, Marjolein M.N.; Wiarda, Bart M.; Jensch, Sebastiaan; Wouter van Es, H.; Stockmann, Hein B.A.C.; Gratama, Jan Willem C.; Cobben, Lodewijk P.J.; Bossuyt, Patrick M.M.; Boermeester, Marja A.; Stoker, Jaap

2014-01-01

Objective: To compare accuracy and interobserver agreement between radiologists with limited experience in the evaluation of abdominal MRI (non-experts), and radiologists with longer MR reading experience (experts), in reading MRI in patients with suspected appendicitis. Methods: MR imaging was performed in 223 adult patients with suspected appendicitis and read independently by two members of a team of eight MR-inexperienced radiologists, who were trained with 100 MR examinations previous to this study (non-expert reading). Expert reading was performed by two radiologists with a larger abdominal MR experience (>500 examinations) in consensus. A final diagnosis was assigned after three months based on all available information, except MRI findings. We estimated MRI sensitivity and specificity for appendicitis and for all urgent diagnoses separately. Interobserver agreement was evaluated using kappa statistics. Results: Urgent diagnoses were assigned to 147 of 223 patients; 117 had appendicitis. Sensitivity for appendicitis was 0.89 by MR-non-expert radiologists and 0.97 in MR-expert reading (p = 0.01). Specificity was 0.83 for MR-non-experts versus 0.93 for MR-expert reading (p = 0.002). MR-experts and MR-non-experts agreed on appendicitis in 89% of cases (kappa 0.78). Accuracy in detecting urgent diagnoses was significantly lower in MR-non-experts compared to MR-expert reading: sensitivity 0.84 versus 0.95 (p < 0.001) and specificity 0.71 versus 0.82 (p = 0.03), respectively. Agreement on urgent diagnoses was 83% (kappa 0.63). Conclusion: MR-non-experts have sufficient sensitivity in reading MRI in patients with suspected appendicitis, with good agreement with MR-expert reading, but accuracy of MR-expert reading was higher

Environmental factors and puberty timing: expert panel research needs

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Louis, G.M. Buck; Jr, L.E. Gray; Marcus, M.

2008-01-01

Serono Symposia International convened an expert panel to review the impact of environmental influences on the regulation of pubertal onset and progression while identifying critical data gaps and future research priorities. An expert panel reviewed the literature on endocrine-disrupting chemicals......, body size, and puberty. The panel concluded that available experimental animal and human data support a possible role of endocrine-disrupting chemicals and body size in relation to alterations in pubertal onset and progression in boys and girls. Critical data gaps prioritized for future research......, and (3) basic research to identify the primary signal(s) for the onset of gonadotropin-releasing hormone-dependent/central puberty and gonadotropin-releasing hormone-independent/peripheral puberty. Prospective studies of couples who are planning pregnancies or pregnant women are needed to capture...

The experience of a local partnership with experts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Draulans, H.

2004-01-01

STOLA is an abbreviation for Structured Study group for Low-level short-lived radioactive waste, with all the actors of our small community of Dessel. You may know: social culture and economic factors of course all play a role in radioactive waste management and we work together with the experts of ONDRAF/NIRAS. But I am sure that was explained to you sufficiently yesterday and I can skip all that. 70 000 m 3 of low-level radioactive waste can be disposed of in our area and that only under certain safety conditions for humans and the environment. Of course one of the conditions is also that it has an added value for our municipality. In the past four years, I have participated in the activities of STOLA in Dessel and also led them. In that period, I met many, many experts, I spoke to them; I also really listened to them and together we worked on this disposal process. I will give you my personal opinion on that contact with those experts. Although I am going to be one in a long list of professors giving lectures today, I may not be the most scientific of speakers: I will be talking mainly from my experience with the people from STOLA. (author)

Intelligent programs-expert systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gledhill, V X

1982-01-01

In recent years, computer scientists have developed what are called expert systems. These programs have three fundamental components: a knowledge base, which changes with experience; an inference engine which enables the program to make decisions; and an interface that allows the program to communicate with the person using the system. Expert systems have been developed successfully in areas such as medical diagnosis, geology, and computer maintenance. This paper describes the evolution and basic principles of expert systems and give some examples of their use.

An approach for evaluating expert performance in emergency situations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ujita, Hiroshi; Kawano, Ryutaro; Yoshimura, Sandanori

1995-01-01

To understand expert behavior and define what constitutes good performance in emergency situations in huge and complex plants, human performance evaluation should be made from viewpoints of not only error, but also various cognitive, psychological, and behavioral characteristics. Quantitative and qualitative measures of human performance are proposed for both individual operators and crews, based on the operator performance analysis experiment, among which cognitive and behavioral aspects are the most important. Operator performance should be further analyzed experimentally from the cognitive and behavioral viewpoints, using an evaluation based on various gross indexes considering operator's tasks which should be done in response to plant situations

Hospital Value-Based Purchasing (HVBP) – Total Performance Score

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — A list of hospitals participating in the Hospital VBP Program and their Clinical Process of Care domain scores, Patient Experience of Care dimension scores, and...

Expert system for compressor maintenance support; Sistema especialista para apoio a manutencao de compressores

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Silva, Jonny Carlos da [Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina (UFSC), Florianopolis, SC (Brazil). Dept. de Engenharia Mecanica; Caletti, Luciano [KEOHPS - Knowledge Engineering on Hydraulic and Pneumatic System, SC (Brazil); Luna, Paulo de T.M. [Universidade Regional de Blumenau - FURB, SC (Brazil)

2004-07-01

The performance of critical machines in industrial processes, such as compressors used in industrial plants, is fundamental for overall company operation. In this context, it becomes strategic the application of methods and tools to support the operation and maintenance of the most relevant process equipment. Among these computational tools are the Expert Systems, which aim to emulate the decision making process of human experts in a specific knowledge domain. In Oil and Gas domain, an example of such tools is the SEGRED project, which combines expert system techniques with dynamic simulation of transport and distribution natural gas networks. The SECOMP project, Expert System for Compressor Maintenance, is considered a spin-off of the SEGRED. Its objective is to develop an expert system to support maintenance activities, aiming to increase reliability, improve performance and reduce maintenance and operational costs. This article presents the first phase of the SECOMP project, which is related to the development of an expert system prototype for corrective maintenance of natural gas reciprocating compressors. The paper discusses the context of this knowledge domain, the prototype development and its potential contribution in an industrial environment. (author)

TU Delft expert judgment data base

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cooke, Roger M.; Goossens, Louis L.H.J.

2008-01-01

We review the applications of structured expert judgment uncertainty quantification using the 'classical model' developed at the Delft University of Technology over the last 17 years [Cooke RM. Experts in uncertainty. Oxford: Oxford University Press; 1991; Expert judgment study on atmospheric dispersion and deposition. Report Faculty of Technical Mathematics and Informatics No.01-81, Delft University of Technology; 1991]. These involve 45 expert panels, performed under contract with problem owners who reviewed and approved the results. With a few exceptions, all these applications involved the use of seed variables; that is, variables from the experts' area of expertise for which the true values are available post hoc. Seed variables are used to (1) measure expert performance, (2) enable performance-based weighted combination of experts' distributions, and (3) evaluate and hopefully validate the resulting combination or 'decision maker'. This article reviews the classical model for structured expert judgment and the performance measures, reviews applications, comparing performance-based decision makers with 'equal weight' decision makers, and collects some lessons learned

Expert system technology for the military

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Franklin, J.E.; Carmody, C.L.; Buteau, B.L.; Keller, K.; Levitt, T.S.

1988-01-01

This paper is concerned with the applications of expert systems to complex military problems. A brief description of needs for expert systems in the military arena is given. A short tutorial on some of the elements of an expert system is found in Appendix I. An important aspect of expert systems concerns using uncertain information and ill-defined procedures. Many of the general techniques of dealing with uncertainty are described in Appendix II. These techniques include Bayesian certainty factors, Dempster-Shafer theory of uncertainty, and Zadeh's fuzzy set theory. The major portion of the paper addresses specific expert system examples such as resource allocation, identification of radar images, maintenance and troubleshooting of electronic equipment, and the interpretation and understanding of radar images. Extensions of expert systems to incorporate learning are examined in the context of military intelligence to determine the disposition, location, and intention of the adversary. The final application involves the use of distributed communicating cooperating expert systems for battle management. Finally, the future of expert systems and their evolving capabilities are discussed

Expert systems: A 5-year perspective

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

MacAllister, D.J.; Day, R.; McCormack, M.D.

1996-01-01

This paper gives an overview of a major integrated oil company's experience with artificial intelligence (AI) over the last 5 years, with an emphasis on expert systems. The authors chronicle the development of an AI group, including details on development tool selection, project selection strategies, potential pitfalls, and descriptions of several completed expert systems. Small expert systems produced by teams of petroleum technology experts and experienced expert system developers that are focused in well-defined technical areas have produced substantial benefits and accelerated petroleum technology transfer

THE IMPACT OF MODERATE AND HIGH INTENSITY TOTAL BODY FATIGUE ON PASSING ACCURACY IN EXPERT AND NOVICE BASKETBALL PLAYERS

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Mark Lyons

2006-06-01

Full Text Available Despite the acknowledged importance of fatigue on performance in sport, ecologically sound studies investigating fatigue and its effects on sport-specific skills are surprisingly rare. The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of moderate and high intensity total body fatigue on passing accuracy in expert and novice basketball players. Ten novice basketball players (age: 23.30 ± 1.05 yrs and ten expert basketball players (age: 22.50 ± 0.41 yrs volunteered to participate in the study. Both groups performed the modified AAHPERD Basketball Passing Test under three different testing conditions: rest, moderate intensity and high intensity total body fatigue. Fatigue intensity was established using a percentage of the maximal number of squat thrusts performed by the participant in one minute. ANOVA with repeated measures revealed a significant (F 2,36 = 5.252, p = 0.01 level of fatigue by level of skill interaction. On examination of the mean scores it is clear that following high intensity total body fatigue there is a significant detriment in the passing performance of both novice and expert basketball players when compared to their resting scores. Fundamentally however, the detrimental impact of fatigue on passing performance is not as steep in the expert players compared to the novice players. The results suggest that expert or skilled players are better able to cope with both moderate and high intensity fatigue conditions and maintain a higher level of performance when compared to novice players. The findings of this research therefore, suggest the need for trainers and conditioning coaches in basketball to include moderate, but particularly high intensity exercise into their skills sessions. This specific training may enable players at all levels of the game to better cope with the demands of the game on court and maintain a higher standard of play

Computer Based Expert Systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Parry, James D.; Ferrara, Joseph M.

1985-01-01

Claims knowledge-based expert computer systems can meet needs of rural schools for affordable expert advice and support and will play an important role in the future of rural education. Describes potential applications in prediction, interpretation, diagnosis, remediation, planning, monitoring, and instruction. (NEC)

[Deontology of the medical expert].

Science.gov (United States)

Raszeja, S

1995-09-01

The authority of prosecuting organ to choose the expert, set his task and verify the following opinion is defined. The qualities of the medical expert and his duties are described, referring to: -his expertise; -his morality; -his ability to issue an independent (objective) opinion. Detailed rules, which can be ascribed to a specific medical expert's deontological code, are listed and explained.

True-personality-assisted self-awareness expert system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Laleuf, M.

1988-01-01

Based on psychoanalytic theory, the Who am I? expert system explains in simple terms the individual's true personality, even it its unconscious or hidden aspects. Our overt personality traits are deeply rooted. The Who am I? expert system gives access to an individual's primary personality, starting from his habitual everyday-life behavior: (1) describes the individual's basic personality, (2) explains this personality through the individual's deeply rooted experience and motivation, and (3) makes links with other people with a similar profile. The following are the primary features of the system: easy individual access, results in <20 minutes, and guaranteed confidentiality. Business applications include the following: (1) Individual training: Self-awareness improves a person's ability to fit in and to succeed within the group. (2) Communication: a homogeneous team has a better chance of success. (3) Human reliability: A close-knit team remains reliable even when faced with serious difficulties. (4) Recruitment: This technique enables the selection of individuals who will fit an existing homogeneous team. The system also enables a psychological diagnosis to be confirmed

The quantitative LOD score: test statistic and sample size for exclusion and linkage of quantitative traits in human sibships.

Science.gov (United States)

Page, G P; Amos, C I; Boerwinkle, E

1998-04-01

We present a test statistic, the quantitative LOD (QLOD) score, for the testing of both linkage and exclusion of quantitative-trait loci in randomly selected human sibships. As with the traditional LOD score, the boundary values of 3, for linkage, and -2, for exclusion, can be used for the QLOD score. We investigated the sample sizes required for inferring exclusion and linkage, for various combinations of linked genetic variance, total heritability, recombination distance, and sibship size, using fixed-size sampling. The sample sizes required for both linkage and exclusion were not qualitatively different and depended on the percentage of variance being linked or excluded and on the total genetic variance. Information regarding linkage and exclusion in sibships larger than size 2 increased as approximately all possible pairs n(n-1)/2 up to sibships of size 6. Increasing the recombination (theta) distance between the marker and the trait loci reduced empirically the power for both linkage and exclusion, as a function of approximately (1-2theta)4.

Expert systems: An overview

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Verdejo, F.

1985-01-01

The purpose of this article is to introduce readers to the basic principles of rule-based expert systems. Four topics are discussed in subsequent sections: (1) Definition; (2) Structure of an expert system; (3) State of the art and (4) Impact and future research. (orig.)

Prediction of true test scores from observed item scores and ancillary data.

Science.gov (United States)

Haberman, Shelby J; Yao, Lili; Sinharay, Sandip

2015-05-01

In many educational tests which involve constructed responses, a traditional test score is obtained by adding together item scores obtained through holistic scoring by trained human raters. For example, this practice was used until 2008 in the case of GRE(®) General Analytical Writing and until 2009 in the case of TOEFL(®) iBT Writing. With use of natural language processing, it is possible to obtain additional information concerning item responses from computer programs such as e-rater(®). In addition, available information relevant to examinee performance may include scores on related tests. We suggest application of standard results from classical test theory to the available data to obtain best linear predictors of true traditional test scores. In performing such analysis, we require estimation of variances and covariances of measurement errors, a task which can be quite difficult in the case of tests with limited numbers of items and with multiple measurements per item. As a consequence, a new estimation method is suggested based on samples of examinees who have taken an assessment more than once. Such samples are typically not random samples of the general population of examinees, so that we apply statistical adjustment methods to obtain the needed estimated variances and covariances of measurement errors. To examine practical implications of the suggested methods of analysis, applications are made to GRE General Analytical Writing and TOEFL iBT Writing. Results obtained indicate that substantial improvements are possible both in terms of reliability of scoring and in terms of assessment reliability. © 2015 The British Psychological Society.

Use of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in expert systems to advise nuclear plant operators and managers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Uhrig, R.E.

1988-01-01

The use of expert systems in nuclear power plants to provide advice to managers, supervisors and/or operators is a concept that is rapidly gaining acceptance. Generally, expert systems rely on the expertise of human experts or knowledge that has been modified in publications, books, or regulations to provide advice under a wide variety of conditions. In this work, a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) 3 of a nuclear power plant performed previously is used to assess the safety status of nuclear power plants and to make recommendations to the plant personnel. 5 refs., 1 fig., 2 tabs

Larger right posterior parietal volume in action video game experts: a behavioral and voxel-based morphometry (VBM study.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Satoshi Tanaka

Full Text Available Recent studies suggest that action video game players exhibit superior performance in visuospatial cognitive tasks compared with non-game players. However, the neural basis underlying this visuospatial cognitive performance advantage remains largely unknown. The present human behavioral and imaging study compared gray matter volume in action video game experts and non-experts using structural magnetic resonance imaging and voxel-based morphometry analysis. The results revealed significantly larger gray matter volume in the right posterior parietal cortex in experts compared with non-experts. Furthermore, the larger gray matter volume in the right posterior parietal cortex significantly correlated with individual performance in a visual working memory task in experts. These results suggest that differences in brain structure may be linked to extensive video game play, leading to superior visuospatial cognitive performance in action video game experts.

Preserving experience through expert systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jelinek, J.B.; Weidman, S.H.

1989-01-01

Expert systems technology, one of the branches in the field of computerized artificial intelligence, has existed for >30 yr but only recently has been made available on commercially standard hardware and software platforms. An expert system can be defined as any method of encoding knowledge by representing that knowledge as a collection of facts or objects. Decisions are made by the expert program by obtaining data about the problem or situation and correlating encoded facts (knowledge) to the data until a conclusion can be reached. Such conclusions can be relayed to the end user as expert advice. Realizing the potential of this technology, General Electric (GE) Nuclear Energy (GENE) has initiated a development program in expert systems applications; this technology offers the potential for packaging, distributing, and preserving nuclear experience in a software form. The paper discusses application fields, effective applications, and knowledge acquisition and knowledge verification

Back-and-Forth Methodology for Objective Voice Quality Assessment: From/to Expert Knowledge to/from Automatic Classification of Dysphonia

Science.gov (United States)

Fredouille, Corinne; Pouchoulin, Gilles; Ghio, Alain; Revis, Joana; Bonastre, Jean-François; Giovanni, Antoine

2009-12-01

This paper addresses voice disorder assessment. It proposes an original back-and-forth methodology involving an automatic classification system as well as knowledge of the human experts (machine learning experts, phoneticians, and pathologists). The goal of this methodology is to bring a better understanding of acoustic phenomena related to dysphonia. The automatic system was validated on a dysphonic corpus (80 female voices), rated according to the GRBAS perceptual scale by an expert jury. Firstly, focused on the frequency domain, the classification system showed the interest of 0-3000 Hz frequency band for the classification task based on the GRBAS scale. Later, an automatic phonemic analysis underlined the significance of consonants and more surprisingly of unvoiced consonants for the same classification task. Submitted to the human experts, these observations led to a manual analysis of unvoiced plosives, which highlighted a lengthening of VOT according to the dysphonia severity validated by a preliminary statistical analysis.

Back-and-Forth Methodology for Objective Voice Quality Assessment: From/to Expert Knowledge to/from Automatic Classification of Dysphonia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Corinne Fredouille

2009-01-01

Full Text Available This paper addresses voice disorder assessment. It proposes an original back-and-forth methodology involving an automatic classification system as well as knowledge of the human experts (machine learning experts, phoneticians, and pathologists. The goal of this methodology is to bring a better understanding of acoustic phenomena related to dysphonia. The automatic system was validated on a dysphonic corpus (80 female voices, rated according to the GRBAS perceptual scale by an expert jury. Firstly, focused on the frequency domain, the classification system showed the interest of 0–3000 Hz frequency band for the classification task based on the GRBAS scale. Later, an automatic phonemic analysis underlined the significance of consonants and more surprisingly of unvoiced consonants for the same classification task. Submitted to the human experts, these observations led to a manual analysis of unvoiced plosives, which highlighted a lengthening of VOT according to the dysphonia severity validated by a preliminary statistical analysis.

Operational expert system applications in Canada

CERN Document Server

Suen, Ching Y

1992-01-01

This book is part of a new series on operational expert systems worldwide. Expert systems are now widely used in different parts of the world for various applications. The past four years have witnessed a steady growth in the development and deployment of expert systems in Canada. Research in this field has also gained considerable momentum during the past few years. However, the field of expert systems is still young in Canada. This book contains 13 chapters contributed by 31 experts from both universities and industries across Canada covering a wide range of applications related to electric

Expert Systems as Tools for Technical Communicators.

Science.gov (United States)

Grider, Daryl A.

1994-01-01

Discusses expertise, what an expert system is, what an expert system shell is, what expert systems can and cannot do, knowledge engineering and technical communicators, and planning and managing expert system projects. (SR)

Elicitation of expert knowledge on controlling Salmonella in the pork chain

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Gaag, v.d. M.; Huirne, R.B.M.

2002-01-01

Salmonella is one of the most important risks for food safety, and pork is one of the sources of human salmonellosis. A chain approach is essential to reduce Salmonella in pork products. A survey was carried out among Dutch and Danish experts in the field of Salmonella to evaluate the entire pork

Expert software for accident identification

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dobnikar, M.; Nemec, T.; Muehleisen, A.

2003-01-01

Each type of an accident in a Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) causes immediately after the start of the accident variations of physical parameters that are typical for that type of the accident thus enabling its identification. Examples of these parameter are: decrease of reactor coolant system pressure, increase of radiation level in the containment, increase of pressure in the containment. An expert software enabling a fast preliminary identification of the type of the accident in Krsko NPP has been developed. As input data selected typical parameters from Emergency Response Data System (ERDS) of the Krsko NPP are used. Based on these parameters the expert software identifies the type of the accident and also provides the user with appropriate references (past analyses and other documentation of such an accident). The expert software is to be used as a support tool by an expert team that forms in case of an emergency at Slovenian Nuclear Safety Administration (SNSA) with the task to determine the cause of the accident, its most probable scenario and the source term. The expert software should provide initial identification of the event, while the final one is still to be made after appropriate assessment of the event by the expert group considering possibility of non-typical events, multiple causes, initial conditions, influences of operators' actions etc. The expert software can be also used as an educational/training tool and even as a simple database of available accident analyses. (author)

The Specification of an Expert System for Building Bylaws Compliance

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sania Bhatti

2012-04-01

Full Text Available An Expert System is a computer program that simulates the human intelligence and behaviour in specific and limited domains. It is used to solve problems with tricks, shortcuts and heuristics i.e. rules of thumb. Checking a Plan (Map to verify its compliance with building bylaws is a complex task mainly due to various rules and the exceptions to those rules. Humans are prone to make errors in such situations. Due to the problems faced by Building Control Department, HDA ( Hyderabad Development Authority there is a strong need to develop a computerized system. In this research we have developed a prototype named as ESBBC (Expert System for Building Bylaws Compliance for HDA that can help in their building plan checking system. The proposed solution is merging three frameworks, i.e. Java an OOP (Object Oriented Programming language, Prolog- a rule based language and MS Access- for database. The solution is fulfilling the three main requirements of the HDA, i.e. Determination of whether a particular plan is in compliance with predefined building bylaws or not. (2 Offering search facility. (3 Maintaining records of plans which are entered for compliance checking. We have checked plans of 20 properties according to HDA building regulations using ESBBC and presented their results. The results show that ESBBC has capability to identify errors made by humans.

Performance of Vascular Exposure and Fasciotomy Among Surgical Residents Before and After Training Compared With Experts.

Science.gov (United States)

Mackenzie, Colin F; Garofalo, Evan; Puche, Adam; Chen, Hegang; Pugh, Kristy; Shackelford, Stacy; Tisherman, Samuel; Henry, Sharon; Bowyer, Mark W

2017-06-01

Surgical patient outcomes are related to surgeon skills. To measure resident surgeon technical and nontechnical skills for trauma core competencies before and after training and up to 18 months later and to compare resident performance with the performance of expert traumatologists. This longitudinal study performed from May 1, 2013, through February 29, 2016, at Maryland State Anatomy Board cadaver laboratories included 40 surgical residents and 10 expert traumatologists. Performance was measured during extremity vascular exposures and lower extremity fasciotomy in fresh cadavers before and after taking the Advanced Surgical Skills for Exposure in Trauma (ASSET) course. The primary outcome variable was individual procedure score (IPS), with secondary outcomes of IPSs on 5 components of technical and nontechnical skills, Global Rating Scale scores, errors, and time to complete the procedure. Two trained evaluators located in the same laboratory evaluated performance with a standardized script and mobile touch-screen data collection. Thirty-eight (95%) of 40 surgical residents (mean [SD] age, 31 [2.9] years) who were evaluated before and within 4 weeks of ASSET training completed follow-up evaluations 12 to 18 months later (mean [SD], 14 [2.7] months). The experts (mean [SD] age, 52 [10.0] years) were significantly older and had a longer (mean [SD], 46 [16.3] months) interval since taking the ASSET course (both P knowledge, correct procedural steps, and decreased errors from 60% to 19% after the ASSET course regardless of clinical year of training (P knowledge (the 2 IPS components most improved with training) indicates the resident's performance was within 1 nearest-neighbor classifier of experts after ASSET training. Five residents had no improvement with training. The Trauma Readiness Index for experts (mean [SD], 74 [4]) was significantly different compared with the trained residents (mean [SD], 48 [7] before training vs 63 [7] after training [P = .004

BWR recirculation pump diagnostic expert system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chiang, S.C.; Morimoto, C.N.; Torres, M.R.

2004-01-01

At General Electric (GE), an on-line expert system to support maintenance decisions for BWR recirculation pumps for nuclear power plants has been developed. This diagnostic expert system is an interactive on-line system that furnishes diagnostic information concerning BWR recirculation pump operational problems. It effectively provides the recirculation pump diagnostic expertise in the plant control room continuously 24 hours a day. The expert system is interfaced to an on-line monitoring system, which uses existing plant sensors to acquire non-safety related data in real time. The expert system correlates and evaluates process data and vibration data by applying expert rules to determine the condition of a BWR recirculation pump system by applying knowledge based rules. Any diagnosis will be automatically displayed, indicating which pump may have a problem, the category of the problem, and the degree of concern expressed by the validity index and color hierarchy. The rules incorporate the expert knowledge from various technical sources such as plant experience, engineering principles, and published reports. These rules are installed in IF-THEN formats and the resulting truth values are also expressed in fuzzy terms and a certainty factor called a validity index. This GE Recirculation Pump Expert System uses industry-standard software, hardware, and network access to provide flexible interfaces with other possible data acquisition systems. Gensym G2 Real-Time Expert System is used for the expert shell and provides the graphical user interface, knowledge base, and inference engine capabilities. (author)

Validating Automated Essay Scoring: A (Modest) Refinement of the "Gold Standard"

Science.gov (United States)

Powers, Donald E.; Escoffery, David S.; Duchnowski, Matthew P.

2015-01-01

By far, the most frequently used method of validating (the interpretation and use of) automated essay scores has been to compare them with scores awarded by human raters. Although this practice is questionable, human-machine agreement is still often regarded as the "gold standard." Our objective was to refine this model and apply it to…

Trendwatch combining expert opinion

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hendrix, E.M.T.; Kornelis, M.; Pegge, S.M.; Galen, van M.A.

2006-01-01

In this study, focus is on a systematic way to detect future changes in trends that may effect the dynamics in the agro-food sector, and on the combination of opinions of experts. For the combination of expert opinions, the usefulness of multilevel models is investigated. Bayesian data analysis is

Mapping on complex neutrosophic soft expert sets

Science.gov (United States)

Al-Quran, Ashraf; Hassan, Nasruddin

2018-04-01

We introduce the mapping on complex neutrosophic soft expert sets. Further, we investigated the basic operations and other related properties of complex neutrosophic soft expert image and complex neutrosophic soft expert inverse image of complex neutrosophic soft expert sets.

Automated Quantitative Analysis of p53, Cyclin D1, Ki67 and pERK Expression in Breast Carcinoma Does Not Differ from Expert Pathologist Scoring and Correlates with Clinico-Pathological Characteristics

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cass, Jamaica D. [Division of Cancer Biology and Genetics, Cancer Research Institute, Queen’s University, Kingston K7L 3N6 (Canada); Varma, Sonal [Department of Pathology and Molecular Medicine, Queen’s University, Kingston K7L 3N6 (Canada); Day, Andrew G. [Kingston General Hospital, Kingston K7L 2V7 (Canada); Sangrar, Waheed [Division of Cancer Biology and Genetics, Cancer Research Institute, Queen’s University, Kingston K7L 3N6 (Canada); Rajput, Ashish B. [Department of Pathology and Molecular Medicine, Queen’s University, Kingston K7L 3N6 (Canada); Raptis, Leda H.; Squire, Jeremy [Division of Cancer Biology and Genetics, Cancer Research Institute, Queen’s University, Kingston K7L 3N6 (Canada); Madarnas, Yolanda [Department of Oncology, Queen’s University, Kingston K7L 3N6 (Canada); SenGupta, Sandip K. [Department of Pathology and Molecular Medicine, Queen’s University, Kingston K7L 3N6 (Canada); Elliott, Bruce E., E-mail: elliottb@queensu.ca [Division of Cancer Biology and Genetics, Cancer Research Institute, Queen’s University, Kingston K7L 3N6 (Canada); Department of Pathology and Molecular Medicine, Queen’s University, Kingston K7L 3N6 (Canada)

2012-07-18

There is critical need for improved biomarker assessment platforms which integrate traditional pathological parameters (TNM stage, grade and ER/PR/HER2 status) with molecular profiling, to better define prognostic subgroups or systemic treatment response. One roadblock is the lack of semi-quantitative methods which reliably measure biomarker expression. Our study assesses reliability of automated immunohistochemistry (IHC) scoring compared to manual scoring of five selected biomarkers in a tissue microarray (TMA) of 63 human breast cancer cases, and correlates these markers with clinico-pathological data. TMA slides were scanned into an Ariol Imaging System, and histologic (H) scores (% positive tumor area x staining intensity 0–3) were calculated using trained algorithms. H scores for all five biomarkers concurred with pathologists’ scores, based on Pearson correlation coefficients (0.80–0.90) for continuous data and Kappa statistics (0.55–0.92) for positive vs. negative stain. Using continuous data, significant association of pERK expression with absence of LVI (p = 0.005) and lymph node negativity (p = 0.002) was observed. p53 over-expression, characteristic of dysfunctional p53 in cancer, and Ki67 were associated with high grade (p = 0.032 and 0.0007, respectively). Cyclin D1 correlated inversely with ER/PR/HER2-ve (triple negative) tumors (p = 0.0002). Thus automated quantitation of immunostaining concurs with pathologists’ scoring, and provides meaningful associations with clinico-pathological data.

Automated Quantitative Analysis of p53, Cyclin D1, Ki67 and pERK Expression in Breast Carcinoma Does Not Differ from Expert Pathologist Scoring and Correlates with Clinico-Pathological Characteristics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cass, Jamaica D.; Varma, Sonal; Day, Andrew G.; Sangrar, Waheed; Rajput, Ashish B.; Raptis, Leda H.; Squire, Jeremy; Madarnas, Yolanda; SenGupta, Sandip K.; Elliott, Bruce E.

2012-01-01

There is critical need for improved biomarker assessment platforms which integrate traditional pathological parameters (TNM stage, grade and ER/PR/HER2 status) with molecular profiling, to better define prognostic subgroups or systemic treatment response. One roadblock is the lack of semi-quantitative methods which reliably measure biomarker expression. Our study assesses reliability of automated immunohistochemistry (IHC) scoring compared to manual scoring of five selected biomarkers in a tissue microarray (TMA) of 63 human breast cancer cases, and correlates these markers with clinico-pathological data. TMA slides were scanned into an Ariol Imaging System, and histologic (H) scores (% positive tumor area x staining intensity 0–3) were calculated using trained algorithms. H scores for all five biomarkers concurred with pathologists’ scores, based on Pearson correlation coefficients (0.80–0.90) for continuous data and Kappa statistics (0.55–0.92) for positive vs. negative stain. Using continuous data, significant association of pERK expression with absence of LVI (p = 0.005) and lymph node negativity (p = 0.002) was observed. p53 over-expression, characteristic of dysfunctional p53 in cancer, and Ki67 were associated with high grade (p = 0.032 and 0.0007, respectively). Cyclin D1 correlated inversely with ER/PR/HER2-ve (triple negative) tumors (p = 0.0002). Thus automated quantitation of immunostaining concurs with pathologists’ scoring, and provides meaningful associations with clinico-pathological data

[Progressive noise induced hearing loss caused by hearing AIDS, a dilemma for the worker and the expert alike].

Science.gov (United States)

Feldmann, H

2001-12-01

Investigating cases of noise induced hearing loss the expert is often confronted with the situation that the hearing loss is progressive although the noise exposure has been reduced to almost non-damaging levels. Other causes such as age, hereditary deafness, head injuries, blasts, internal diseases can be excluded. Hearing aids as sources of damaging noise? By consulting the protocol of the hearing-aid acoustician and by own examinations the expert should obtain the following data: loudness level that yields best discrimination score of speech; level of discomfort for tones and speech, discrimination score that is achieved under free field condition with a speech level of 65 dB, using the hearing aids. Furthermore he should explore the circumstances under which the hearing aids are used: how many hours per day, at what occasions etc.? It is likely that in using the hearing aids they are adjusted to emit an intensity level identical to the one yielding the optimal discrimination score. If this e. g. is 100 dB and the hearing aids are used for 2 hours per day this would be equivalent to an exposure to industrial noise of 94 dB (A) for 8 hours daily without ear protection. Among all individuals working under industrial noise exposure today only about 1 - 2 % having unusually vulnerable inner ears will suffer a noise induced hearing loss. On the other hand workers in industrial noise are accustomed to loud noise levels, usually have a raised threshold of discomfort and therefore are likely to adjust their hearing aids to such high intensities. The expert will have to decide whether in an individual case the industrial noise exposure or the use of the hearing aids is the dominant risk for further damage. The consequences in respect to the regulations of the workers' health insurance are discussed.

Intelligent Integration between Human Simulated Intelligence and Expert Control Technology for the Combustion Process of Gas Heating Furnace

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yucheng Liu

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Due to being poor in control quality of the combustion process of gas heating furnace, this paper explored a sort of strong robust control algorithm in order to improve the control quality of the combustion process of gas heating furnace. The paper analyzed the control puzzle in the complex combustion process of gas heating furnace, summarized the cybernetics characteristic of the complex combustion process, researched into control strategy of the uncertainty complex control process, discussed the control model of the complex process, presented a sort of intelligent integration between human-simulated intelligence and expert control technology, and constructed the control algorithm for the combustion process controlling of gas heating furnace. The simulation results showed that the control algorithm proposed in the paper is not only better in dynamic and steady quality of the combustion process, but also obvious in energy saving effect, feasible, and effective in control strategy.

Expert Judgement Assessment & SCENT Ontological Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

NICHERSU Iulian

2018-05-01

Full Text Available This study aims to provide insights in the starting point of the Horizon 2020 ECfunded project SCENT (Smart Toolbox for Εngaging Citizens into a People-Centric Observation Web Citizen Observatory (CO in terms of existing infrastructure, existing monitoring systems and some discussion on the existing legal and administrative framework that relate to flood monitoring and management in the area of Danube Delta. The methodology used in this approach is based on expert judgement and ontological analysis, using the information collected from the identified end-users of the SCENT toolbox. In this type of analysis the stages of flood monitoring and management that the experts are involved in are detailed. This is done through an Expert Judgement Assessment analysis. The latter is complemented by a set of Key Performance Indicators that the stakeholders have assessed and/or proposed for the evaluation of the SCENT demonstrations, for the impact of the project and finally for SCENT toolbox performance and usefulness. The second part of the study presents an analysis that attempts to map the interactions between different organizations and components of the existing monitoring systems in the Danube Delta case study. Expert Judgement (EJ allows to gain information from specialists in a specific field through a consultation process with one or more experts that have experience in similar and complementary topics. Expert judgment, expert estimates, or expert opinion are all terms that refer to the contents of the problem; estimates, outcomes, predictions, uncertainties, and their corresponding assumptions and conditions are all examples of expert judgment. Expert Judgement is affected by the process used to gather it. On the other hand, the ontological analysis comes to complete this study, by organizing and presenting the connections behind the flood management and land use systems in the three phases of the flood event.

'Mechanical restraint-confounders, risk, alliance score'

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Deichmann Nielsen, Lea; Bech, Per; Hounsgaard, Lise

2017-01-01

. AIM: To clinically validate a new, structured short-term risk assessment instrument called the Mechanical Restraint-Confounders, Risk, Alliance Score (MR-CRAS), with the intended purpose of supporting the clinicians' observation and assessment of the patient's readiness to be released from mechanical...... restraint. METHODS: The content and layout of MR-CRAS and its user manual were evaluated using face validation by forensic mental health clinicians, content validation by an expert panel, and pilot testing within two, closed forensic mental health inpatient units. RESULTS: The three sub-scales (Confounders......, Risk, and a parameter of Alliance) showed excellent content validity. The clinical validations also showed that MR-CRAS was perceived and experienced as a comprehensible, relevant, comprehensive, and useable risk assessment instrument. CONCLUSIONS: MR-CRAS contains 18 clinically valid items...

An expert system for sensor data validation and malfunction detection

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hashemi, S.; Hajek, B.K.; Miller, D.W.

1987-01-01

Nuclear power plant operation and monitoring in general is a complex task which requires a large number of sensors, alarms and displays. At any instant in time, the operator is required to make a judgment about the state of the plant and to react accordingly. During abnormal situations, operators are further burdened with time constraints. The possibility of an undetected faulty instrumentation line, adds to the complexity of operators' reasoning tasks. Failure of human operators to cope with the conceptual complexity of abnormal situations often leads to more serious malfunctions and further damages to plant (TMI-2 as an example). During these abnormalities, operators rely on the information provided by the plant sensors and associated alarms. Their usefulness however, is quickly diminished by their large number and the extremely difficult task of interpreting and comprehending the information provided by them. The need for an aid to assist the operator in interpreting the available data and diagnosis of problems is obvious. Recent work at the Ohio State University Laboratory of Artificial Intelligence Research (LAIR) and the nuclear engineering program has concentrated on the problem of diagnostic expert systems performance and their applicability to the nuclear power plant domain. There has also been concern about the diagnostic expert systems performance when using potentially invalid sensor data. Because of this research, an expert system has been developed that can perform diagnostic problem solving despite the existence of some conflicting data in the domain. This work has resulted in enhancement of a programming tool, that allows domain experts to create a diagnostic system that will be to some degree, tolerant of bad data while performing diagnosis. This expert system is described here

CRISP: Catheterization RISk score for Pediatrics: A Report from the Congenital Cardiac Interventional Study Consortium (CCISC).

Science.gov (United States)

Nykanen, David G; Forbes, Thomas J; Du, Wei; Divekar, Abhay A; Reeves, Jaxk H; Hagler, Donald J; Fagan, Thomas E; Pedra, Carlos A C; Fleming, Gregory A; Khan, Danyal M; Javois, Alexander J; Gruenstein, Daniel H; Qureshi, Shakeel A; Moore, Phillip M; Wax, David H

2016-02-01

We sought to develop a scoring system that predicts the risk of serious adverse events (SAE's) for individual pediatric patients undergoing cardiac catheterization procedures. Systematic assessment of risk of SAE in pediatric catheterization can be challenging in view of a wide variation in procedure and patient complexity as well as rapidly evolving technology. A 10 component scoring system was originally developed based on expert consensus and review of the existing literature. Data from an international multi-institutional catheterization registry (CCISC) between 2008 and 2013 were used to validate this scoring system. In addition we used multivariate methods to further refine the original risk score to improve its predictive power of SAE's. Univariate analysis confirmed the strong correlation of each of the 10 components of the original risk score with SAE attributed to a pediatric cardiac catheterization (P pediatric cardiac catheterization procedures. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

A law for nuclear experts only

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wagner, H.

1980-01-01

The Federal Ministry of the Interior is preparing an ordinance on expert consultants under the Atomic Energy Act which, among other topics, is to include legal norms for the criteria to be met by experts in terms of non-partisanship, training, capabilities, technical equipment and cooperation in expert organizations of members of various scientific and technical disciplines. A summary of general criteria relating to the qualification, selection and status of experts called in by the legislative and executive branches and by courts of law, which could be organized as a series of guidelines without any original qualities of legal norms, could be recommended in view of the increasing quantitative and qualitative importance of experts. However, passing an ordinance merely fixing and putting into concrete terms the image of an 'expert under the Atomic Energy Act' is intolerable, because the status of scientific and technical experts by far extends beyond the field of nuclear law in our industrial society characterized by a far reaching division of labor. Weak points in the organization of expert services are not confined to technology or nuclear power. Separate rules establishing legal norms are not convincing also for reasons of technology policy and legal policy as well as for those of social psychology and practice. (orig.) 891 HP/orig. 892 MKO [de

Expert panels as a reference standard in orthodontic research: An assessment of published methods and reporting.

Science.gov (United States)

Lempesi, Evangelia; Toulia, Electra; Pandis, Nikolaos

2017-04-01

The aim of this study was to investigate the expert panel methodology applied in orthodontics and its reporting quality. Additionally, the relationship between the reporting quality and a range of variables was explored. PubMed was searched for orthodontic studies in which the final diagnosis or assessment was made by 2 or more experts published up to March 16, 2015. Reporting quality assessment was conducted using an established modified checklist. The relationship between potential predictors and the total score was assessed using univariable linear regression. We identified 237 studies with a mean score of 9.97 (SD, 1.12) out of a maximum of 15. Critical information about panel methodology was missing in all studies. The panel composition differed substantially across studies, ranging from 2 to 646 panel members, with large variations in the expertise represented. Only 17 studies (7.2%) reported sample size calculations to justify the panel size. Panel members were partly blinded in 65 (27.4%) studies. Most studies failed to report which statistic was used to compute intrarater (65.8%) and interrater (66.2%) agreements. Journal type (nonorthodontic: β, 0.23; 95% CI, -0.07 to 0.54 compared with orthodontic), publication year (β, 0; 95% CI, -0.02 to 0.02 for each additional year), number of authors (1-3: β, 0.30; 95% CI, -0.13 to 0.74 compared with at least 6; 4-5: β, 0.18; 95% CI, -0.29 to 0.33 compared with at least 6), and number of centers involved (single: β, 0.20; 95% CI, -0.14 to 0.54 compared with multicenter) were not significant predictors of improved reporting. Studies published in Asia and Australia had significantly lower scores compared with those published in Europe (β, -0.54; 95% CI, -0.92 to -0.17). Formal guidelines on methodology and reporting of studies involving expert panels are required. Copyright © 2016 American Association of Orthodontists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Expert Opinions on Improving Femicide Data Collection across Europe: A Concept Mapping Study.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Carmen Vives-Cases

Full Text Available Femicide, defined as the killings of females by males because they are females, is becoming recognized worldwide as an important ongoing manifestation of gender inequality. Despite its high prevalence or widespread prevalence, only a few countries have specific registries about this issue. This study aims to assemble expert opinion regarding the strategies which might feasibly be employed to promote, develop and implement an integrated and differentiated femicide data collection system in Europe at both the national and international levels. Concept mapping methodology was followed, involving 28 experts from 16 countries in generating strategies, sorting and rating them with respect to relevance and feasibility. The experts involved were all members of the EU-Cost-Action on femicide, which is a scientific network of experts on femicide and violence against women across Europe. As a result, a conceptual map emerged, consisting of 69 strategies organized in 10 clusters, which fit into two domains: "Political action" and "Technical steps". There was consensus among participants regarding the high relevance of strategies to institutionalize national databases and raise public awareness through different stakeholders, while strategies to promote media involvement were identified as the most feasible. Differences in perceived priorities according to the level of human development index of the experts' countries were also observed.

Semi-quantitative assessment of disease risks at the human, livestock, wildlife interface for the Republic of Korea using a nationwide survey of experts: A model for other countries.

Science.gov (United States)

Hwang, J; Lee, K; Walsh, D; Kim, S W; Sleeman, J M; Lee, H

2018-02-01

Wildlife-associated diseases and pathogens have increased in importance; however, management of a large number of diseases and diversity of hosts is prohibitively expensive. Thus, the determination of priority wildlife pathogens and risk factors for disease emergence is warranted. We used an online questionnaire survey to assess release and exposure risks, and consequences of wildlife-associated diseases and pathogens in the Republic of Korea (ROK). We also surveyed opinions on pathways for disease exposure, and risk factors for disease emergence and spread. For the assessment of risk, we employed a two-tiered, statistical K-means clustering algorithm to group diseases into three levels (high, medium and low) of perceived risk based on release and exposure risks, societal consequences and the level of uncertainty of the experts' opinions. To examine the experts' perceived risk of routes of introduction of pathogens and disease amplification and spread, we used a Bayesian, multivariate normal order-statistics model. Six diseases or pathogens, including four livestock and two wildlife diseases, were identified as having high risk with low uncertainty. Similarly, 13 diseases were characterized as having high risk with medium uncertainty with three of these attributed to livestock, six associated with human disease, and the remainder having the potential to affect human, livestock and wildlife (i.e., One Health). Lastly, four diseases were described as high risk with high certainty, and were associated solely with fish diseases. Experts identified migration of wildlife, international human movement and illegal importation of wildlife as the three routes posing the greatest risk of pathogen introduction into ROK. Proximity of humans, livestock and wildlife was the most significant risk factor for promoting the spread of wildlife-associated diseases and pathogens, followed by high density of livestock populations, habitat loss and environmental degradation, and climate

Operational expert system applications in Europe

CERN Document Server

Zarri, Gian Piero

1992-01-01

Operational Expert System Applications in Europe describes the representative case studies of the operational expert systems (ESs) that are used in Europe.This compilation provides examples of operational ES that are realized in 10 different European countries, including countries not usually examined in the standard reviews of the field.This book discusses the decision support system using several artificial intelligence tools; expert systems for fault diagnosis on computerized numerical control (CNC) machines; and expert consultation system for personal portfolio management. The failure prob

Expert communication link management: overview and progress

Science.gov (United States)

Dunkelberger, Kirk A.

1998-08-01

Consider the downsizing of our forces, the increasing complexity of our tactical platforms, and the ever widening array of communication options and the conclusion is inevitable. The need for automated support to reduce communication-related workload is critical to continued task force effectiveness. In a previous era, communication management expertise resided solely in the form of human experts. These experts flew with the pilots, providing the most effective means of communication in real time; they have since been removed from a great number of platforms due to force downsizing and real estate value in the cockpit. This burden has typically been shifted to the pilot, providing another set of tasks in an environment which is already far too taxing. An Expert Communication Link Manger (ECLM) is required -- a trusted, reliable assistant which can determine optimal link, channel, and waveform data for the communication requirements at hand and translate those requirements transparently into communication device control. Technologies are at hand which make ECLM possible; the mixture of these elements in the correct proportions can provide a capable, deployable, and cost effective ECLM in the near term. This paper describes specific applied ECLM research work in progress funded by the USAF under a four year effort. Operational objectives, technical objectives, a reference design, and technical excursions within the broad ECLM scope will be discussed in detail. Results of prototypes built to date in the area of communication inference from speech understanding, dynamic adaptive routing, and packet switching networks in the tactical environment will be presented.

Expert system application education project

Science.gov (United States)

Gonzelez, Avelino J.; Ragusa, James M.

1988-01-01

Artificial intelligence (AI) technology, and in particular expert systems, has shown potential applicability in many areas of operation at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC). In an era of limited resources, the early identification of good expert system applications, and their segregation from inappropriate ones can result in a more efficient use of available NASA resources. On the other hand, the education of students in a highly technical area such as AI requires an extensive hands-on effort. The nature of expert systems is such that proper sample applications for the educational process are difficult to find. A pilot project between NASA-KSC and the University of Central Florida which was designed to simultaneously address the needs of both institutions at a minimum cost. This project, referred to as Expert Systems Prototype Training Project (ESPTP), provided NASA with relatively inexpensive development of initial prototype versions of certain applications. University students likewise benefit by having expertise on a non-trivial problem accessible to them at no cost. Such expertise is indispensible in a hands-on training approach to developing expert systems.

On Consistency Test Method of Expert Opinion in Ecological Security Assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Gong, Zaiwu; Wang, Lihong

2017-09-04

To reflect the initiative design and initiative of human security management and safety warning, ecological safety assessment is of great value. In the comprehensive evaluation of regional ecological security with the participation of experts, the expert's individual judgment level, ability and the consistency of the expert's overall opinion will have a very important influence on the evaluation result. This paper studies the consistency measure and consensus measure based on the multiplicative and additive consistency property of fuzzy preference relation (FPR). We firstly propose the optimization methods to obtain the optimal multiplicative consistent and additively consistent FPRs of individual and group judgments, respectively. Then, we put forward a consistency measure by computing the distance between the original individual judgment and the optimal individual estimation, along with a consensus measure by computing the distance between the original collective judgment and the optimal collective estimation. In the end, we make a case study on ecological security for five cities. Result shows that the optimal FPRs are helpful in measuring the consistency degree of individual judgment and the consensus degree of collective judgment.

The First Expert CAI System

Science.gov (United States)

Feurzeig, Wallace

1984-01-01

The first expert instructional system, the Socratic System, was developed in 1964. One of the earliest applications of this system was in the area of differential diagnosis in clinical medicine. The power of the underlying instructional paradigm was demonstrated and the potential of the approach for valuably supplementing medical instruction was recognized. Twenty years later, despite further educationally significant advances in expert systems technology and enormous reductions in the cost of computers, expert instructional methods have found very little application in medical schools.

Expert robots in nuclear plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Byrd, J.S.; Fisher, J.J.; DeVries, K.R.; Martin, T.P.

1987-01-01

Expert robots enhance a safety and operations in nuclear plants. E.I. du Pont de Nemours and Company, Savannah River Laboratory, is developing expert mobile robots for deployment in nuclear applications at the Savannah River Plant. Knowledge-based expert systems are being evaluated to simplify operator control, to assist in navigation and manipulation functions, and to analyze sensory information. Development work using two research vehicles is underway to demonstrate semiautonomous, intelligence, expert robot system operation in process areas. A description of the mechanical equipment, control systems, and operating modes is presented, including the integration of onboard sensors. A control hierarchy that uses modest computational methods is being used to allow mobile robots to autonomously navigate and perform tasks in known environments without the need for large computer systems

Expert robots in nuclear plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Byrd, J.S.; Fisher, J.J.; DeVries, K.R.; Martin, T.P.

1987-01-01

Expert robots will enhance safety and operations in nuclear plants. E. I. du Pont de Nemours and Company, Savannah River Laboratory, is developing expert mobile robots for deployment in nuclear applications at the Savannah River Plant. Knowledge-based expert systems are being evaluated to simplify operator control, to assist in navigation and manipulation functions, and to analyze sensory information. Development work using two research vehicles is underway to demonstrate semiautonomous, intelligent, expert robot system operation in process areas. A description of the mechanical equipment, control systems, and operating modes is presented, including the integration of onboard sensors. A control hierarchy that uses modest computational methods is being used to allow mobile robots to autonomously navigate and perform tasks in known environments without the need for large computer systems

Expert database system for quality control

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Anne J.; Li, Zhi-Cheng

1993-09-01

There are more competitors today. Markets are not homogeneous they are fragmented into increasingly focused niches requiring greater flexibility in the product mix shorter manufacturing production runs and above allhigher quality. In this paper the author identified a real-time expert system as a way to improve plantwide quality management. The quality control expert database system (QCEDS) by integrating knowledge of experts in operations quality management and computer systems use all information relevant to quality managementfacts as well as rulesto determine if a product meets quality standards. Keywords: expert system quality control data base

A preliminary study to understand tacit knowledge and visual routines of medical experts through gaze tracking.

Science.gov (United States)

Anderson, Blake; Shyu, Chi-Ren

2010-11-13

Many decisions made by medical experts are based on scans from advanced imaging technologies. Interpreting a medical image is a trained, systematic procedure and an excellent target for identifying potential visual routines through image informatics. These visual routines derived from experts contain many clues about visual knowledge and its representation. This study uses an inexpensive webcam-based gaze tracking method to collect data from multiple technologists' survey of medical and non-medical images. Through computational analysis of the results, we expect to provide insight into the behaviors and properties related to medical visual routines. Discovering the visual processes associated with medical images will help us recognize and understand the tacit knowledge gained from extensive experience with medical imagery. These expert routines could potentially be used to reduce medical error, train new experts, and provide an understanding of the human visual system in medicine.

Expert systems in process control systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wittig, T.

1987-01-01

To illustrate where the fundamental difference between expert systems in classical diagnosis and in industrial control lie, the work of process control instrumentation is used as an example for the job of expert systems. Starting from the general process of problem-solving, two classes of expert systems can be defined accordingly. (orig.) [de

Use of expert judgement in NUREG-1150

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ortiz, N.R.; Wheeler, T.A.; Breeding, R.J.; Hora, S.; Meyer, M.A.; Kenney, R.L.

1991-01-01

The explicit expert judgment process used in NUREG-1150, 'Severe Accident Risks: An Assessment for Five US Nuclear Plants', is discussed in this paper. The main steps of the process are described, including selection of issues and experts, elicitation training, presentation of issues to the experts, preparation of issue analyses by the experts, discussion of issue analyses and elicitation, and recomposition and aggregation of results. To demonstrate the application of the expert judgment process to NUREG-1150, two issues are summarized: one from the accident frequency analysis, and one from the accident progression analysis. Recommendations and insights are provided to improve the use of explicit expert judgment in complex technical issues. (orig.)

Expert Evidence and International Criminal Justice

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Appazov, Artur

The book is a comprehensive narration of the use of expertise in international criminal trials offering reflection on standards concerning the quality and presentation of expert evidence. It analyzes and critiques the rules governing expert evidence in international criminal trials...... and the strategies employed by counsel and courts relying upon expert evidence and challenges that courts face determining its reliability. In particular, the author considers how the procedural and evidentiary architecture of international criminal courts and tribunals influences the courts' ability to meaningfully...... incorporate expert evidence into the rational fact-finding process. The book provides analysis of the unique properties of expert evidence as compared with other forms of evidence and the challenges that these properties present for fact-finding in international criminal trials. It draws conclusions about...

Self vs expert assessment of technical and non-technical skills in high fidelity simulation.

Science.gov (United States)

Arora, Sonal; Miskovic, Danilo; Hull, Louise; Moorthy, Krishna; Aggarwal, Rajesh; Johannsson, Helgi; Gautama, Sanjay; Kneebone, Roger; Sevdalis, Nick

2011-10-01

Accurate assessment is imperative for learning, feedback and progression. The aim of this study was to examine whether surgeons can accurately self-assess their technical and nontechnical skills compared with expert faculty members' assessments. Twenty-five surgeons performed a laparoscopic cholecystectomy (LC) in a simulated operating room. Technical and nontechnical performance was assessed by participants and faculty members using the validated Objective Structured Assessment of Technical Skills (OSATS) and the Non-Technical Skills for Surgeons scale (NOTSS). Assessment of technical performance correlated between self and faculty members' ratings for experienced (median score, 30.0 vs 31.0; ρ = .831; P = .001) and inexperienced (median score, 22.0 vs 28.0; ρ = .761; P = .003) surgeons. Assessment of nontechnical skills between self and faculty members did not correlate for experienced surgeons (median score, 8.0 vs 10.5; ρ = -.375; P = .229) or their more inexperienced counterparts (median score, 9.0 vs 7.0; ρ = -.018; P = .953). Surgeons can accurately self-assess their technical skills in virtual reality LC. Conversely, formal assessment with faculty members' input is required for nontechnical skills, for which surgeons lack insight into their behaviours. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Expert agreement confirms that negative changes in hand and foot radiographs are a surrogate for repair in patients with rheumatoid arthritis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van der Heijde, Désirée; Landewé, Robert; Boonen, Annelies; Einstein, Steve; Herborn, Gertraud; Rau, Rolf; Wassenberg, Siegfried; Weissman, Barbara N.; Winalski, Carl S.; Sharp, John T.

2007-01-01

The objective of the present study was to test the hypothesis that experts recognize repair of erosions and, if so, to determine which, if any, morphologic features permitted them to recognize the repair. We also tested whether scoring by a standard method detected repair. Seven experienced readers

Progress on developing expert systems in waste management and disposal

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rivera, A.L.; Ferrada, J.J.

1990-01-01

The concept of artificial intelligence (AI) represents a challenging opportunity in expanding the potential benefits from computer technology in waste management and disposal. The potential of this concept lies in facilitating the development of intelligent computer systems to help analysts, decision makers, and operators in waste and technology problem solving similar to the way that machines support the laborer. Because the knowledge of multiple human experts is an essential input in the many aspects of waste management and disposal, there are numerous opportunities for the development of expert systems using software products from AI. This paper presents systems analysis as an attractive framework for the development of intelligent computer systems of significance to waste management and disposal, and it provides an overview of limited prototype systems and the commercially available software used during prototype development activities

Inductive acquisition of expert knowledge

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Muggleton, S.H.

1986-01-01

Expert systems divide neatly into two categories: those in which (1) the expert decisions result in changes to some external environment (control systems), and (2) the expert decisions merely seek to describe the environment (classification systems). Both the explanation of computer-based reasoning and the bottleneck (Feigenbaum, 1979) of knowledge acquisition are major issues in expert-systems research. The author contributed to these areas of research in two ways: 1. He implemented an expert-system shell, the Mugol environment, which facilitates knowledge acquisition by inductive inference and provides automatic explanation of run-time reasoning on demand. RuleMaster, a commercial version of this environment, was used to advantage industrially in the construction and testing of two large classification systems. 2. He investigated a new techniques called 'sequence induction' that can be used in construction of control systems. Sequence induction is based on theoretical work in grammatical learning. He improved existing grammatical learning algorithms as well as suggesting and theoretically characterizing new ones. These algorithms were successfully applied to acquisition of knowledge for a diverse set of control systems, including inductive construction of robot plans and chess end-gam strategies.

Expert system in PNC, 6

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tsubota, Koji

1990-01-01

The application of Artificial Intelligence (AI) as a tool for mineral exploration started only a decade ago. The systems that have been reported are in the most cases the expert systems that can simulate the decision of the experts or help numerical calculation for more reasonable and/or fast decision making. PNC started the development of the expert system for uranium exploration in 1983. Since then, KOGITO, a expert system to find the favorability of the target area, has been developed. Two years ago, the second generation development, Intelligent Research Environment and Support System, IRESS was initiated aiming at the establishment of a total support system for a project evaluation. We will review our effort for development of our system and introduce the application of the Data directed Numerical method as a new tool to Ahnemland area in Australia. (author)

Framework for generating expert systems to perform computer security risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, S.T.; Lim, J.J.

1985-01-01

At Los Alamos we are developing a framework to generate knowledge-based expert systems for performing automated risk analyses upon a subject system. The expert system is a computer program that models experts' knowledge about a topic, including facts, assumptions, insights, and decision rationale. The subject system, defined as the collection of information, procedures, devices, and real property upon which the risk analysis is to be performed, is a member of the class of systems that have three identifying characteristics: a set of desirable assets (or targets), a set of adversaries (or threats) desiring to obtain or to do harm to the assets, and a set of protective mechanisms to safeguard the assets from the adversaries. Risk analysis evaluates both vulnerability to and the impact of successful threats against the targets by determining the overall effectiveness of the subject system safeguards, identifying vulnerabilities in that set of safeguards, and determining cost-effective improvements to the safeguards. As a testbed, we evaluate the inherent vulnerabilities and risks in a system of computer security safeguards. The method considers safeguards protecting four generic targets (physical plant of the computer installation, its hardware, its software, and its documents and displays) against three generic threats (natural hazards, direct human actions requiring the presence of the adversary, and indirect human actions wherein the adversary is not on the premises-perhaps using such access tools as wiretaps, dialup lines, and so forth). Our automated procedure to assess the effectiveness of computer security safeguards differs from traditional risk analysis methods

Partners for development: Expert assistant in Malaysia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Daud, A.H.

1996-01-01

This report reviews the expert assignments received by Malaysia under the TC programme over the 1980-95 time period. It provides data about the type of assignments and expert services, the institutions receiving the experts, and duration of the assignment. Also reviewed is the process of requesting and implementing an expert assignment in Malaysia, as well as the country's related objectives and plans

Expert system technology for nondestructive waste assay

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Becker, G.K.; Determan, J.C.

1998-01-01

Nondestructive assay waste characterization data generated for use in the National TRU Program must be of known and demonstrable quality. Each measurement is required to receive an independent technical review by a qualified expert. An expert system prototype has been developed to automate waste NDA data review of a passive/active neutron drum counter system. The expert system is designed to yield a confidence rating regarding measurement validity. Expert system rules are derived from data in a process involving data clustering, fuzzy logic, and genetic algorithms. Expert system performance is assessed against confidence assignments elicited from waste NDA domain experts. Performance levels varied for the active, passive shielded, and passive system assay modes of the drum counter system, ranging from 78% to 94% correct classifications

An expert computer program for classifying stars on the MK spectral classification system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gray, R. O.; Corbally, C. J.

2014-01-01

This paper describes an expert computer program (MKCLASS) designed to classify stellar spectra on the MK Spectral Classification system in a way similar to humans—by direct comparison with the MK classification standards. Like an expert human classifier, the program first comes up with a rough spectral type, and then refines that spectral type by direct comparison with MK standards drawn from a standards library. A number of spectral peculiarities, including barium stars, Ap and Am stars, λ Bootis stars, carbon-rich giants, etc., can be detected and classified by the program. The program also evaluates the quality of the delivered spectral type. The program currently is capable of classifying spectra in the violet-green region in either the rectified or flux-calibrated format, although the accuracy of the flux calibration is not important. We report on tests of MKCLASS on spectra classified by human classifiers; those tests suggest that over the entire HR diagram, MKCLASS will classify in the temperature dimension with a precision of 0.6 spectral subclass, and in the luminosity dimension with a precision of about one half of a luminosity class. These results compare well with human classifiers.

An expert computer program for classifying stars on the MK spectral classification system

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gray, R. O. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Appalachian State University, Boone, NC 26808 (United States); Corbally, C. J. [Vatican Observatory Research Group, Tucson, AZ 85721-0065 (United States)

2014-04-01

This paper describes an expert computer program (MKCLASS) designed to classify stellar spectra on the MK Spectral Classification system in a way similar to humans—by direct comparison with the MK classification standards. Like an expert human classifier, the program first comes up with a rough spectral type, and then refines that spectral type by direct comparison with MK standards drawn from a standards library. A number of spectral peculiarities, including barium stars, Ap and Am stars, λ Bootis stars, carbon-rich giants, etc., can be detected and classified by the program. The program also evaluates the quality of the delivered spectral type. The program currently is capable of classifying spectra in the violet-green region in either the rectified or flux-calibrated format, although the accuracy of the flux calibration is not important. We report on tests of MKCLASS on spectra classified by human classifiers; those tests suggest that over the entire HR diagram, MKCLASS will classify in the temperature dimension with a precision of 0.6 spectral subclass, and in the luminosity dimension with a precision of about one half of a luminosity class. These results compare well with human classifiers.

International and National Expert Group Evaluations: Biological/Health Effects of Radiofrequency Fields

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vijayalaxmi

2014-09-01

Full Text Available The escalated use of various wireless communication devices, which emit non-ionizing radiofrequency (RF fields, have raised concerns among the general public regarding the potential adverse effects on human health. During the last six decades, researchers have used different parameters to investigate the effects of in vitro and in vivo exposures of animals and humans or their cells to RF fields. Data reported in peer-reviewed scientific publications were contradictory: some indicated effects while others did not. International organizations have considered all of these data as well as the observations reported in human epidemiological investigations to set-up the guidelines or standards (based on the quality of published studies and the “weight of scientific evidence” approach for RF exposures in occupationally exposed individuals and the general public. Scientists with relevant expertise in various countries have also considered the published data to provide the required scientific information for policy-makers to develop and disseminate authoritative health information to the general public regarding RF exposures. This paper is a compilation of the conclusions, on the biological effects of RF exposures, from various national and international expert groups, based on their analyses. In general, the expert groups suggested a reduction in exposure levels, precautionary approach, and further research.

Expert system aids transport regulation users

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cheshire, R.D.; Straw, R.J.

1990-01-01

During late 1984 the IAEA Regulations were identified as an area of application for an expert system adviser which could offer many advantages. Over the following year some simple tests were carried out to examine its feasibility, but TRANAID did not get underway until 1986 when British Nuclear Fuels (BNFL) Corporate Management services were engaged on the product. By this time a greater choice of suitable software, in the form of expert system shells, had become available. After a number of trial systems the shell Leonardo was finally adopted for the final system. In order for TRANAID to emulate the expert it was necessary to spend time extracting and documenting the expert knowledge. This was a matter of investigating how the regulations are used and was achieved by a series of meetings including opportunity for the computer specialists to interview the regulations experts. There are several benefits in having an expert system advisor in this area. It is useful to both experienced and inexperienced users of regulations. For those who are learning to use the regulations it is an excellent training aid. For those who know the regulations but use them infrequently it can save time and provide a valuable reassurance. The adviser has enabled the expert user's know how to be captured and to be made widely available to those with less experience. (author)

A Study of the pre-retirement program implementation for KAERI nuclear experts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hong, Hyo-Jeong; Hwang, Hye-Seon; Nam, Young-Mi; Jin, You-Rim; Song, Eun-Ju

2017-01-01

people in Korea take far more of interests in the nuclear power and whether they are well prepared in the lack of professional human resources in it in the foreseeable future. It is not only personal concern anymore, but also national concern. In particular, retirement of the experts in nuclear field is likely to lose our competitiveness in the world. It is urgent for the government and institutions in Korea to develop and implement educational programs to secure talented new workers in the field. This study analyzes the cases of development and application of pre-retirement education program of professional talent for nuclear R and D and then, develops programs to help nuclear experts retire. In the aging society, the retirement of nuclear experts is a national issue that can't be held off rather than each worker's problem. There are people at the heart of nuclear power. This is because they do all the things like nuclear research and development, and construction. Therefore, it is important to nurture and manage nuclear experts to ensure the sustainable development of nuclear with safety. This program could be also a part of it. KAERI is the organization that represents domestic nuclear research, and it is their urgent task to prepare for aging.

Cooperative expert system reasoning for waste remediations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bohn, S.J.; Pennock, K.A.; Franklin, A.L.

1991-12-01

The United States Department of Energy (DOE) is facing a large task in completing Remedial Investigations and Feasibility Studies (RI/FS) for hazardous waste sites across the nation. One of the primary objectives of an RI/FS is the specification of viable sequences of technology treatment trains which can provide implementable site solutions. We present a methodology which integrates expert system technology within an object-oriented framework to create a cooperative reasoning system designed to provide a comprehensive list of these implementable solutions. The system accomplishes its goal of specifying technology trains by utilizing a ''team'' of expert system objects. The system distributes the problem solving among the individual expert objects, and then coordinates the combination of individual decisions into a joint solution. Each expert object possesses the knowledge of an expert in a particular technology. An expert object can examine the parameters and characteristics of the waste site, seek information and support from other expert objects, and then make decisions concerning its own applicability. This methodology has at least two primary benefits. First, the creation of multiple expert objects provides a more direct mapping from the actual process to a software system, making the system easier to build. Second, the distribution of the inferencing among a number of loosely connected expert objects allows for a more robust and maintainable final product

Fire Effects, Education, and Expert Systems

Science.gov (United States)

Robert E. Martin

1987-01-01

Predicting the effects of fires in the year 2000 and beyond will be enhanced by the use of expert systems. Although our predictions may have broad confidence limits, expert systems should help us to improve the predictions and to focus on the areas where improved knowledge is most needed. The knowledge of experts can be incorporated into previously existing knowledge...

Classification of Listeria monocytogenes persistence in retail delicatessen environments using expert elicitation and machine learning.

Science.gov (United States)

Vangay, P; Steingrimsson, J; Wiedmann, M; Stasiewicz, M J

2014-10-01

Increasing evidence suggests that persistence of Listeria monocytogenes in food processing plants has been the underlying cause of a number of human listeriosis outbreaks. This study extracts criteria used by food safety experts in determining bacterial persistence in the environment, using retail delicatessen operations as a model. Using the Delphi method, we conducted an expert elicitation with 10 food safety experts from academia, industry, and government to classify L. monocytogenes persistence based on environmental sampling results collected over six months for 30 retail delicatessen stores. The results were modeled using variations of random forest, support vector machine, logistic regression, and linear regression; variable importance values of random forest and support vector machine models were consolidated to rank important variables in the experts' classifications. The duration of subtype isolation ranked most important across all expert categories. Sampling site category also ranked high in importance and validation errors doubled when this covariate was removed. Support vector machine and random forest models successfully classified the data with average validation errors of 3.1% and 2.2% (n = 144), respectively. Our findings indicate that (i) the frequency of isolations over time and sampling site information are critical factors for experts determining subtype persistence, (ii) food safety experts from different sectors may not use the same criteria in determining persistence, and (iii) machine learning models have potential for future use in environmental surveillance and risk management programs. Future work is necessary to validate the accuracy of expert and machine classification against biological measurement of L. monocytogenes persistence. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

Ask-the-expert: Active Learning Based Knowledge Discovery Using the Expert

Science.gov (United States)

Das, Kamalika; Avrekh, Ilya; Matthews, Bryan; Sharma, Manali; Oza, Nikunj

2017-01-01

Often the manual review of large data sets, either for purposes of labeling unlabeled instances or for classifying meaningful results from uninteresting (but statistically significant) ones is extremely resource intensive, especially in terms of subject matter expert (SME) time. Use of active learning has been shown to diminish this review time significantly. However, since active learning is an iterative process of learning a classifier based on a small number of SME-provided labels at each iteration, the lack of an enabling tool can hinder the process of adoption of these technologies in real-life, in spite of their labor-saving potential. In this demo we present ASK-the-Expert, an interactive tool that allows SMEs to review instances from a data set and provide labels within a single framework. ASK-the-Expert is powered by an active learning algorithm for training a classifier in the backend. We demonstrate this system in the context of an aviation safety application, but the tool can be adopted to work as a simple review and labeling tool as well, without the use of active learning.

NTP-CERHR expert panel report on the developmental toxicity of soy infant formula.

Science.gov (United States)

McCarver, Gail; Bhatia, Jatinder; Chambers, Christina; Clarke, Robert; Etzel, Ruth; Foster, Warren; Hoyer, Patricia; Leeder, J Steven; Peters, Jeffrey M; Rissman, Emilie; Rybak, Michael; Sherman, Claire; Toppari, Jorma; Turner, Katie

2011-10-01

Soy infant formula contains soy protein isolates and is fed to infants as a supplement to or replacement for human milk or cow milk. Soy protein isolates contains estrogenic isoflavones (phytoestrogens) that occur naturally in some legumes, especially soybeans. Phytoestrogens are nonsteroidal, estrogenic compounds. In plants, nearly all phytoestrogens are bound to sugar molecules and these phytoestrogen-sugar complexes are not generally considered hormonally active. Phytoestrogens are found in many food products in addition to soy infant formula, especially soy-based foods such as tofu, soy milk, and in some over-the-counter dietary supplements. Soy infant formula was selected for National Toxicology Program (NTP) evaluation because of (1) the availability of large number of developmental toxicity studies in laboratory animals exposed to the isoflavones found in soy infant formula (namely, genistein) or other soy products, as well as few studies on human infants fed soy infant formula, (2) the availability of information on exposures in infants fed soy infant formula, and (3) public concern for effects on infant or child development. On October 2, 2008 (73 FR 57360), the NTP Center for the Evaluation of Risks to Human Reproduction (CERHR) announced its intention to conduct an updated review of soy infant formula to complete a previous evaluation that was initiated in 2005. Both the current and previous evaluations relied on expert panels to assist the NTP in developing its conclusions on the potential developmental effects associated with the use of soy infant formula, presented in the NTP Brief on Soy Infant Formula. The initial expert panel met on March 15 to 17, 2006, to reach conclusions on the potential developmental and reproductive toxicities of soy infant formula and its predominant isoflavone constituent genistein. The expert panel reports were released for public comment on May 5, 2006 (71 FR 28368). On November 8, 2006 (71 FR 65537), CERHR staff released

Experts' perceptions on the entrepreneurial framework conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Correia, Aldina; e Silva, Eliana Costa; Lopes, I. Cristina; Braga, Alexandra; Braga, Vitor

2017-11-01

The Global Entrepreneurship Monitor is a large scale database for internationally comparative entrepreneurship. This database includes information of more than 100 countries concerning several aspects of entrepreneurship activities, perceptions, conditions, national and regional policy, among others, in two main sources of primary data: the Adult Population Survey and the National Expert Survey. In the present work the National Expert Survey datasets for 2011, 2012 and 2013 are analyzed with the purpose of studying the effects of different type of entrepreneurship expert specialization on the perceptions about the Entrepreneurial Framework Conditions (EFCs). The results of the multivariate analysis of variance for the 2013 data show significant differences of the entrepreneurship experts when compared the 2011 and 2012 surveys. For the 2013 data entrepreneur experts are less favorable then most of the other experts to the EFCs.

Robust Trust in Expert Testimony

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christian Dahlman

2015-05-01

Full Text Available The standard of proof in criminal trials should require that the evidence presented by the prosecution is robust. This requirement of robustness says that it must be unlikely that additional information would change the probability that the defendant is guilty. Robustness is difficult for a judge to estimate, as it requires the judge to assess the possible effect of information that the he or she does not have. This article is concerned with expert witnesses and proposes a method for reviewing the robustness of expert testimony. According to the proposed method, the robustness of expert testimony is estimated with regard to competence, motivation, external strength, internal strength and relevance. The danger of trusting non-robust expert testimony is illustrated with an analysis of the Thomas Quick Case, a Swedish legal scandal where a patient at a mental institution was wrongfully convicted for eight murders.

Expert systems in clinical microbiology.

Science.gov (United States)

Winstanley, Trevor; Courvalin, Patrice

2011-07-01

This review aims to discuss expert systems in general and how they may be used in medicine as a whole and clinical microbiology in particular (with the aid of interpretive reading). It considers rule-based systems, pattern-based systems, and data mining and introduces neural nets. A variety of noncommercial systems is described, and the central role played by the EUCAST is stressed. The need for expert rules in the environment of reset EUCAST breakpoints is also questioned. Commercial automated systems with on-board expert systems are considered, with emphasis being placed on the "big three": Vitek 2, BD Phoenix, and MicroScan. By necessity and in places, the review becomes a general review of automated system performances for the detection of specific resistance mechanisms rather than focusing solely on expert systems. Published performance evaluations of each system are drawn together and commented on critically.

Expert opinion vs. empirical evidence

Science.gov (United States)

Herman, Rod A; Raybould, Alan

2014-01-01

Expert opinion is often sought by government regulatory agencies when there is insufficient empirical evidence to judge the safety implications of a course of action. However, it can be reckless to continue following expert opinion when a preponderance of evidence is amassed that conflicts with this opinion. Factual evidence should always trump opinion in prioritizing the information that is used to guide regulatory policy. Evidence-based medicine has seen a dramatic upturn in recent years spurred by examples where evidence indicated that certain treatments recommended by expert opinions increased death rates. We suggest that scientific evidence should also take priority over expert opinion in the regulation of genetically modified crops (GM). Examples of regulatory data requirements that are not justified based on the mass of evidence are described, and it is suggested that expertise in risk assessment should guide evidence-based regulation of GM crops. PMID:24637724

Standardized Computer-based Organized Reporting of EEG: SCORE

Science.gov (United States)

Beniczky, Sándor; Aurlien, Harald; Brøgger, Jan C; Fuglsang-Frederiksen, Anders; Martins-da-Silva, António; Trinka, Eugen; Visser, Gerhard; Rubboli, Guido; Hjalgrim, Helle; Stefan, Hermann; Rosén, Ingmar; Zarubova, Jana; Dobesberger, Judith; Alving, Jørgen; Andersen, Kjeld V; Fabricius, Martin; Atkins, Mary D; Neufeld, Miri; Plouin, Perrine; Marusic, Petr; Pressler, Ronit; Mameniskiene, Ruta; Hopfengärtner, Rüdiger; Emde Boas, Walter; Wolf, Peter

2013-01-01

The electroencephalography (EEG) signal has a high complexity, and the process of extracting clinically relevant features is achieved by visual analysis of the recordings. The interobserver agreement in EEG interpretation is only moderate. This is partly due to the method of reporting the findings in free-text format. The purpose of our endeavor was to create a computer-based system for EEG assessment and reporting, where the physicians would construct the reports by choosing from predefined elements for each relevant EEG feature, as well as the clinical phenomena (for video-EEG recordings). A working group of EEG experts took part in consensus workshops in Dianalund, Denmark, in 2010 and 2011. The faculty was approved by the Commission on European Affairs of the International League Against Epilepsy (ILAE). The working group produced a consensus proposal that went through a pan-European review process, organized by the European Chapter of the International Federation of Clinical Neurophysiology. The Standardised Computer-based Organised Reporting of EEG (SCORE) software was constructed based on the terms and features of the consensus statement and it was tested in the clinical practice. The main elements of SCORE are the following: personal data of the patient, referral data, recording conditions, modulators, background activity, drowsiness and sleep, interictal findings, “episodes” (clinical or subclinical events), physiologic patterns, patterns of uncertain significance, artifacts, polygraphic channels, and diagnostic significance. The following specific aspects of the neonatal EEGs are scored: alertness, temporal organization, and spatial organization. For each EEG finding, relevant features are scored using predefined terms. Definitions are provided for all EEG terms and features. SCORE can potentially improve the quality of EEG assessment and reporting; it will help incorporate the results of computer-assisted analysis into the report, it will make

Trace Elements in Human Nutrition and Health

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Trace Elements in Human Nutrition and Health, a report of a. World Heatth Organisation Expert Committee, contains material contributed by numerous experts consulted in different specialised fields, together with the conClusions reached and recommendations made by the Expert. Consultation. The nineteen nutritionally ...

Development of expert system for fault diagnosis and restoration at substations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Choo, Jin Boo; Kwon, Tae Won; Yoon, Yong Beum; Park, Sung Taek [Korea Electric Power Corp. (KEPCO), Taejon (Korea, Republic of). Research Center; Park, Young Moon; Lee, Heung Jae [Electrical Engineering and Science Research Institute (Korea, Republic of)

1996-12-31

When a fault occurs in power systems, the operators have to make precise judgements on the situation and take appropriate actions rapidly to protect the system and minimize the black-out area. However, the larger and the more complex the power systems become, the more difficult it becomes to expect the effective actions of human operators. Therefore, it is a very important issue to support the operators of the local power systems in the case of various faults. We develop an expert system for fault diagnosis and reconfiguration of local power system. The expert system has a capability of identifying the location and the type of faults, the black-out area, and an appropriate reconfiguration procedure for re-energizing or minimizing the service interruption (author). 35 refs., 45 figs.

Development of expert system for fault diagnosis and restoration at substations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Choo, Jin Boo; Kwon, Tae Won; Yoon, Yong Beum; Park, Sung Taek [Korea Electric Power Corp. (KEPCO), Taejon (Korea, Republic of). Research Center; Park, Young Moon; Lee, Heung Jae [Electrical Engineering and Science Research Institute (Korea, Republic of)

1995-12-31

When a fault occurs in power systems, the operators have to make precise judgements on the situation and take appropriate actions rapidly to protect the system and minimize the black-out area. However, the larger and the more complex the power systems become, the more difficult it becomes to expect the effective actions of human operators. Therefore, it is a very important issue to support the operators of the local power systems in the case of various faults. We develop an expert system for fault diagnosis and reconfiguration of local power system. The expert system has a capability of identifying the location and the type of faults, the black-out area, and an appropriate reconfiguration procedure for re-energizing or minimizing the service interruption (author). 35 refs., 45 figs.

Scoring relevancy of features based on combinatorial analysis of Lasso with application to lymphoma diagnosis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zare Habil

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract One challenge in applying bioinformatic tools to clinical or biological data is high number of features that might be provided to the learning algorithm without any prior knowledge on which ones should be used. In such applications, the number of features can drastically exceed the number of training instances which is often limited by the number of available samples for the study. The Lasso is one of many regularization methods that have been developed to prevent overfitting and improve prediction performance in high-dimensional settings. In this paper, we propose a novel algorithm for feature selection based on the Lasso and our hypothesis is that defining a scoring scheme that measures the "quality" of each feature can provide a more robust feature selection method. Our approach is to generate several samples from the training data by bootstrapping, determine the best relevance-ordering of the features for each sample, and finally combine these relevance-orderings to select highly relevant features. In addition to the theoretical analysis of our feature scoring scheme, we provided empirical evaluations on six real datasets from different fields to confirm the superiority of our method in exploratory data analysis and prediction performance. For example, we applied FeaLect, our feature scoring algorithm, to a lymphoma dataset, and according to a human expert, our method led to selecting more meaningful features than those commonly used in the clinics. This case study built a basis for discovering interesting new criteria for lymphoma diagnosis. Furthermore, to facilitate the use of our algorithm in other applications, the source code that implements our algorithm was released as FeaLect, a documented R package in CRAN.

Expert systems in clinical practice

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Renaud-Salis, J.L.

1987-01-01

The first expert systems prototypes intended for advising physicians on diagnosis or therapy selection have been designed more than ten years ago. However, a few of them are already in use in clinical practice after years of research and development efforts. The capabilities of these systems to reason symbolically and to mimic the hypothetico-deductive processes used by physicians distinguishes them from conventional computer programs. Their power comes from their knowledge-base which embeds a large quantity of high-level, specialized knowledge captured from medical experts. Common methods for knowledge representation include production rules and frames. These methods also provide a mean for organizing and structuring the knowledge according to hierarchical or causal links. The best expert-systems perform at the level of the experts. They are easy to learn and use, and can communicate with the user in pseudo-natural language. Moreover they are able to explain their line of reasoning. These capabilities make them potentially useful, usable and acceptable by physicians. However if the problems related to difficulties and costs in building expert-systems are on the way to be solved within the next few years, forensic and ethical issues should have to be addressed before one can envisage their routine use in clinical practice [fr

Tropospheric ozone. Formation, properties, effects. Expert opinion; Ozon in der Troposphaere. Bildung, Eigenschaften, Wirkungen. Gutachten

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Elstner, E.F. [Technische Univ. Muenchen (Germany). Lehrstuhl fuer Phytopathologie

1996-06-01

The formation and dispersion of tropospheric ozone are discussed only marginally in this expert opinion; the key interest is in the effects of ground level ozone on plants, animals, and humans. The expert opinion is based on an analysis of the available scientific publications. (orig./MG) [Deutsch] Das Gutachten nimmt nur am Rande die Problematik der Bildung und Ausbreitung von troposphaerischen Ozon auf; Im Mittelpunkt steht die Auseinandersetzung mit den Wirkungen des bodennahen Ozons auf Pflanze, Tier und Mensch. Das Gutachten basiert auf einer Analyse der zugaenglichen wissenschaftlichen Arbeiten. (orig./MG)

How does the medical graduates' self-assessment of their clinical competency differ from experts' assessment?

Science.gov (United States)

2013-01-01

Background The assessment of the performance of medical school graduates during their first postgraduate years provides an early indicator of the quality of the undergraduate curriculum and educational process. The objective of this study was to assess the clinical competency of medical graduates, as perceived by the graduates themselves and by the experts. Methods This is a hospital based cross-sectional study. It covered 105 medical graduates and 63 experts selected by convenient sampling method. A self-administered questionnaire covering the different areas of clinical competency constructed on a five-point Likert scale was used for data collection. Data processing and analysis were performed using the Statistical Package for Social Science (SPSS) 16.0. The mean, frequency distribution, and percentage of the variables were calculated. A non-parametric Kruskal Wallis test was applied to verify whether the graduates' and experts' assessments were influenced by the graduates' variables such as age, gender, experience, type of hospital, specialty and location of work at a (p ≤ 0.05) level of significance. Results The overall mean scores for experts' and graduates' assessments were 3.40 and 3.63, respectively (p= 0.035). Almost 87% of the graduates perceived their competency as good and very good in comparison with only 67.7% by experts. Female and male graduates who rated themselves as very good were 33.8% and 25% respectively. More than 19% of the graduates in the age group > 30 years perceived their clinical competency as inadequate in contrast with only 6.2% of the graduates in the youngest age group. Experts rated 40% of the female graduates as inadequate versus 20% of males, (p= 0.04). More than 40% of the graduates in younger age group were rated by experts as inadequate, versus 9.7% of the higher age group >30 years (p = 0.03). Conclusion There was a wide discrepancy between the graduates' self-assessment and experts' assessment, particularly in the level

Supply of and demand for nuclear experts in the EU by 2020. EHRO-N report (2012)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Simonovska, Veronika; Estorff, Ulrik von [European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Petten (Netherlands). Inst. for Energy and Transport

2014-06-15

A report from EHRO-N (European Human Resource Observatory of the Nuclear Energy Sector) published in 2012: (1) Determines that the supply of employees with specific educational background and competences, called nuclear experts, does not correspond to the demand for the same employees in the EU by 2020, and that (2) It is useful to put the data on the supply of and demand for nuclear experts in the EU in perspective, using available statistical data on supply of STEM (science, technology, engineering, mathematics) graduates in EU and data on the employed HRST (human resources in science and technology) in the EU labour market. For more refined and accurate data that can determine policy directions, the most effective way would be to conduct regular nuclear human resource monitoring exercises in the EU in the future. This paper is a summary of the first findings as well as of the lessons learnt. (orig.)

Expert Witness

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Adele

formal rules of evidence apply) to help it understand the issues of a case and ... statements on medical expert witness by professional representative bodies in .... determining the size of the financial settlement that may have to be made to the.

Expert system for estimating LWR plutonium production

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sandquist, G.M.

1988-01-01

An Artificial Intelligence-Expert System called APES (Analysis of Proliferation by Expert System) has been developed and tested to permit a non proliferation expert to evaluate the capability and capacity of a specified LWR reactor and PUREX reprocessing system for producing and separating plutonium even when system information may be limited and uncertain. APES employs an expert system coded in LISP and based upon an HP-RL (Hewlett Packard-Representational Language) Expert System Shell. The user I/O interface communicates with a blackboard and the knowledge base which contains the quantitative models required to describe the reactor, selected fission product production and radioactive decay processes, Purex reprocessing and ancillary knowledge

Expert Systems in Reference Services.

Science.gov (United States)

Roysdon, Christine, Ed.; White, Howard D., Ed.

1989-01-01

Eleven articles introduce expert systems applications in library and information science, and present design and implementation issues of system development for reference services. Topics covered include knowledge based systems, prototype development, the use of artificial intelligence to remedy current system inadequacies, and an expert system to…

Quantitative and qualitative analysis of the expert and non-expert opinion in fire risk in buildings

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hanea, D.M.; Jagtman, H.M.; Alphen, L.L.M.M. van; Ale, B.J.M.

2010-01-01

Expert judgment procedure is a method very often used in the area of risk assessments of complex systems or processes to fill in quantitative data. Although it has been proved to be a very reliable source of information when no other data are available, the choice of experts is always questioned. When the available data are limited, the seed questions cover only partially the domains of expertise, which may cause problems. Expertise is assessed not covering the full object of study but only those topics for which seed questions can be formulated. The commonly used quantitative analysis of an expert judgment exercise is combined with a qualitative analysis. The latter adds more insights to the relation between the assessor's field and statistical knowledge and their performance in an expert judgment. In addition the qualitative analysis identifies different types of seed questions. Three groups of assessors with different levels of statistical and domain knowledge are studied. The quantitative analysis shows no differences between field experts and non-experts and no differences between having advanced statistical knowledge or not. The qualitative analysis supports these findings. In addition it is found that especially technical questions are answered with larger intervals. Precaution is required when using seed questions for which the real value can be calculated, which was the case for one of the seed questions.

20 CFR 405.10 - Medical and Vocational Expert System.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... 20 Employees' Benefits 2 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Medical and Vocational Expert System. 405.10... Vocational Expert System. (a) General. The Medical and Vocational Expert System is comprised of the Medical... Vocational Expert System. (3) Experts who provide evidence at your request. Experts whom you ask to provide...

Poor Agreement Among Expert Witnesses in Bile Duct Injury Malpractice Litigation An Expert Panel Survey

NARCIS (Netherlands)

de Reuver, Philip R.; Dijkgraaf, Marcel G. W.; Gevers, Sjef K. M.; Gouma, Dirk J.

2008-01-01

Objective: To determine the inter-rater agreement of expert witness testimonies in bile duct injury malpractice litigation. Background Data: Malpractice litigation is an increasing concern in modem surgical practice. As most of the lawyers are not educated in medicine, expert witnesses are asked to

Poor agreement among expert witnesses in bile duct injury malpractice litigation: an expert panel survey.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Reuver, P.R. de; Dijkgraaf, M.G.; Gevers, S.K.; Gouma, D.J.; Bleichrodt, R.P.; Cuesta, M.A.; Erp, W.F. van; Gerritsen, J.; Hesselink, E.J.; Laarhoven, C.J.H.M. van; Lange, J. de; Obertop, H.; Stassen, L.P.; Terpstra, O.T.; Tilanus, H.W.; Vroonhoven, T.J.; Wit, L. de

2008-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To determine the inter-rater agreement of expert witness testimonies in bile duct injury malpractice litigation. BACKGROUND DATA: Malpractice litigation is an increasing concern in modern surgical practice. As most of the lawyers are not educated in medicine, expert witnesses are asked to

A score card for upper GI endoscopy: Evaluation of interobserver variability in examiners with various levels of experience.

Science.gov (United States)

Neumann, M; Friedl, S; Meining, A; Egger, K; Heldwein, W; Rey, J F; Hochberger, J; Classen, M; Hohenberger, W; Rösch, T

2002-10-01

In most European countries, training in GI endoscopy has largely been based on hands-on acquisition of experience in patients rather than on a structured training programme. With the development of training models systematic hands-on training in a variety of diagnostic and therapeutic endoscopy techniques was achieved. Little, however, is known about methods of objectively assessing trainees' performance. We therefore developed an assessment 'score card' for upper GI endoscopy and tested it in endoscopists with various levels of experience. The aim of the study was therefore to assess interobserver variations in the evaluation of trainees. On the basis of textbook and expert opinions a consensus group of eight experienced endoscopists developed a score card for diagnostic upper GI endoscopy with biopsy. The score card includes an assessment of the single steps of the procedure as well as of the times needed to complete each step. This score card was then evaluated in a further conference including ten experts who blindly assessed videotapes of 15 endoscopists performing upper GI endoscopy in a training bio-simulation model (the 'Erlangen Endo-Trainer'). On the basis of their previous experience (i. e. the number of endoscopies performed) these 15 endoscopists were classified into four groups: very experienced, experienced, having some experience and inexperienced. Interobserver variability (IOV) was tested for the various score card parameters (Kendall's rank-correlation coefficient 0.0-0.5 poor, 0.5-1.0 good agreement). In addition, the correlation between the score card assessment and the examiners' experience levels was analysed. Despite poor IOV results for all the parameters tested (Kendall coefficient account (correlation coefficient 0.59-0.89, p < 0.05). The score card parameters were suitable for differentiating between the four groups of examiners with different levels of endoscopic experience. As expected with scores involving subjective assessment of

Artificial Intelligence: The Expert Way.

Science.gov (United States)

Bitter, Gary G.

1989-01-01

Discussion of artificial intelligence (AI) and expert systems focuses on their use in education. Characteristics of good expert systems are explained; computer software programs that contain applications of AI are described, highlighting one used to help educators identify learning-disabled students; and the future of AI is discussed. (LRW)

Mind the Gaps: Expert and Non-Expert Differences in Conceptualising the Geological Subsurface.

Science.gov (United States)

Gibson, H.; Stewart, I. S.; Stokes, A.; Pahl, S.

2017-12-01

In communicating geoscience topics, emphasis is often given to approaches such as the use of narrative to make a message engaging and reducing the use of jargon to ensure that it is understood by as wide a group of people as possible. Whilst these are undeniably important techniques to promote effective communication, an aspect of geoscience communication that is often overlooked is the publics' conceptual frameworks about core geoscience concepts. The consideration of different conceptual frameworks fits with the need to ensure that the framing is appropriate for the message, but it extends beyond simple framing into more complicated issues of addressing and incorporating pre- and mis-conceptions in geoscience. In a study examining expert and non-expert cognitive (mental) models of the geological subsurface in south-west England, several gaps were found between the fundamental ways that experts and non-experts conceptualise this invisible realm. Of these, three gaps were considered to be particularly important and common to many participants: the use of spatial reasoning; the application of surface experiences to subsurface processes; and the connection between the surface and subsurface. This paper will examine the evidence for these three important conceptual gaps between specialists and non-specialists and will address how this type of cognitive study can help improve effective geoscience communication.

Key attributes of expert NRL referees.

Science.gov (United States)

Morris, Gavin; O'Connor, Donna

2017-05-01

Experiential knowledge of elite National Rugby League (NRL) referees was investigated to determine the key attributes contributing to expert officiating performance. Fourteen current first-grade NRL referees were asked to identify the key attributes they believed contributed to their expert refereeing performance. The modified Delphi method involved a 3-round process of an initial semi-structured interview followed by 2 questionnaires to reach consensus of opinion. The data revealed 25 attributes that were rated as most important that underpin expert NRL refereeing performance. Results illustrate the significance of the cognitive category, with the top 6 ranked attributes all cognitive skills. Of these, the referees ranked decision-making accuracy as the most important attribute, followed by reading the game, communication, game understanding, game management and knowledge of the rules. Player rapport, positioning and teamwork were the top ranked game skill attributes underpinning performance excellence. Expert referees also highlighted a number of psychological attributes (e.g., concentration, composure and mental toughness) that were significant to performance. There were only 2 physiological attributes (fitness, aerobic endurance) that were identified as significant to elite officiating performance. In summary, expert consensus was attained which successfully provided a hierarchy of the most significant attributes of expert NRL refereeing performance.

Using expert opinion surveys to rank threats to endangered species: a case study with sea turtles.

Science.gov (United States)

Donlan, C Josh; Wingfield, Dana K; Crowder, Larry B; Wilcox, Chris

2010-12-01

Little is known about how specific anthropogenic hazards affect the biology of organisms. Quantifying the effect of regional hazards is particularly challenging for species such as sea turtles because they are migratory, difficult to study, long lived, and face multiple anthropogenic threats. Expert elicitation, a technique used to synthesize opinions of experts while assessing uncertainty around those views, has been in use for several decades in the social science and risk assessment sectors. We conducted an internet-based survey to quantify expert opinion on the relative magnitude of anthropogenic hazards to sea turtle populations at the regional level. Fisheries bycatch and coastal development were most often ranked as the top hazards to sea turtle species in a geographic region. Nest predation and direct take followed as the second and third greatest threats, respectively. Survey results suggest most experts believe sea turtles are threatened by multiple factors, including substantial at-sea threats such as fisheries bycatch. Resources invested by the sea turtle community, however, appear biased toward terrestrial-based impacts. Results from the survey are useful for conservation planning because they provide estimates of relative impacts of hazards on sea turtles and a measure of consensus on the magnitude of those impacts among researchers and practitioners. Our survey results also revealed patterns of expert bias, which we controlled for in our analysis. Respondents with no experience with respect to a sea turtle species tended to rank hazards affecting that sea turtle species higher than respondents with experience. A more-striking pattern was with hazard-based expertise: the more experience a respondent had with a specific hazard, the higher the respondent scored the impact of that hazard on sea turtle populations. Bias-controlled expert opinion surveys focused on threatened species and their hazards can help guide and expedite species recovery plans. �

An experts survey on sustainability across twenty-seven extensive European systems of grassland management.

Science.gov (United States)

Caballero, Rafael; Gil, Angel; Fernández-Santos, Xavier

2008-08-01

European Large Scale Grazing Systems (LSGS) are at a crossroad with environmental, agronomic, and social factors interacting on their future viability. This research assesses the current environmental and socio-economic status of a wide range of European LSGS according to an agreed subset of sustainability criteria and indicators, which have been recognized by corresponding experts and privileged observers on their respective case-study system. A survey questionnaire was drafted containing five main criteria (pastoral use, environmental, economic, social, and market and development), with four conceptual-scored variables (indicators) within each criterion. Descriptive, analytical and clustering statistical techniques helped to draw a synthesis of the main result and to standardize sustainability variables across different biogeographical regions and management situations. The results show large multicollinearity among the 20 variables proposed. This dependence was revealed by the reduction to six main factor-components, which accounted for about 73% of the total variance in responses. Aggregation of point-score indicators across criteria to obtain a sustainability index can be of less policy relevance than responses to specific criteria or indicators. Affinity between case-study systems, as judged by collaborative-expert responses, was not related to biogeographical location, operating livestock sector, or population density in their areas. The results show larger weaknesses and constraints in the economic and social criteria than in the pastoral and environmental criteria, and the large heterogeneity of responses appears in the social criterion.

The Guy's stone score--grading the complexity of percutaneous nephrolithotomy procedures.

Science.gov (United States)

Thomas, Kay; Smith, Naomi C; Hegarty, Nicholas; Glass, Jonathan M

2011-08-01

To report the development and validation of a scoring system, the Guy's stone score, to grade the complexity of percutaneous nephrolithotomy (PCNL). Currently, no standardized method is available to predict the stone-free rate after PCNL. The Guy's stone score was developed through a combination of expert opinion, published data review, and iterative testing. It comprises 4 grades: grade I, solitary stone in mid/lower pole or solitary stone in the pelvis with simple anatomy; grade II, solitary stone in upper pole or multiple stones in a patient with simple anatomy or a solitary stone in a patient with abnormal anatomy; grade III, multiple stones in a patient with abnormal anatomy or stones in a caliceal diverticulum or partial staghorn calculus; grade IV, staghorn calculus or any stone in a patient with spina bifida or spinal injury. It was assessed for reproducibility using the kappa coefficient and validated on a prospective database of 100 PCNL procedures performed in a tertiary stone center. The complications were graded using the modified Clavien score. The clinical outcomes were recorded prospectively and assessed with multivariate analysis. The Guy's stone score was the only factor that significantly and independently predicted the stone-free rate (P = .01). It was found to be reproducible, with good inter-rater agreement (P = .81). None of the other factors tested, including stone burden, operating surgeon, patient weight, age, and comorbidity, correlated with the stone-free rate. The Guy's stone score accurately predicted the stone-free rate after PCNL. It was easy to use and reproducible. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Expert judgement models in quantitative risk assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rosqvist, T. [VTT Automation, Helsinki (Finland); Tuominen, R. [VTT Automation, Tampere (Finland)

1999-12-01

Expert judgement is a valuable source of information in risk management. Especially, risk-based decision making relies significantly on quantitative risk assessment, which requires numerical data describing the initiator event frequencies and conditional probabilities in the risk model. This data is seldom found in databases and has to be elicited from qualified experts. In this report, we discuss some modelling approaches to expert judgement in risk modelling. A classical and a Bayesian expert model is presented and applied to real case expert judgement data. The cornerstone in the models is the log-normal distribution, which is argued to be a satisfactory choice for modelling degree-of-belief type probability distributions with respect to the unknown parameters in a risk model. Expert judgements are qualified according to bias, dispersion, and dependency, which are treated differently in the classical and Bayesian approaches. The differences are pointed out and related to the application task. Differences in the results obtained from the different approaches, as applied to real case expert judgement data, are discussed. Also, the role of a degree-of-belief type probability in risk decision making is discussed.

Expert judgement models in quantitative risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rosqvist, T.; Tuominen, R.

1999-01-01

Expert judgement is a valuable source of information in risk management. Especially, risk-based decision making relies significantly on quantitative risk assessment, which requires numerical data describing the initiator event frequencies and conditional probabilities in the risk model. This data is seldom found in databases and has to be elicited from qualified experts. In this report, we discuss some modelling approaches to expert judgement in risk modelling. A classical and a Bayesian expert model is presented and applied to real case expert judgement data. The cornerstone in the models is the log-normal distribution, which is argued to be a satisfactory choice for modelling degree-of-belief type probability distributions with respect to the unknown parameters in a risk model. Expert judgements are qualified according to bias, dispersion, and dependency, which are treated differently in the classical and Bayesian approaches. The differences are pointed out and related to the application task. Differences in the results obtained from the different approaches, as applied to real case expert judgement data, are discussed. Also, the role of a degree-of-belief type probability in risk decision making is discussed

The role of health and safety experts in the management of hazardous and toxic wastes in Indonesia

Science.gov (United States)

Supriyadi; Hadiyanto

2018-02-01

Occupational Safety and Health Experts in Indonesia have an important role in integrating environmental health and safety factors, including in this regard as human resources assigned to undertake hazardous waste management. Comprehensive knowledge and competence skills need to be carried out responsibly, as an inherent professional occupational safety and health profession. Management leaders should continue to provide training in external agencies responsible for science in the management of toxic waste to enable occupational safety and health experts to improve their performance in the hierarchy of control over the presence of hazardous materials. This paper provides an overview of what strategies and competencies the Occupational Safety and Health expert needs to have in embracing hazardous waste management practices.

Mining the Human Phenome Using Allelic Scores That Index Biological Intermediates

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Evans, David M; Brion, Marie Jo A; Paternoster, Lavinia

2013-01-01

It is common practice in genome-wide association studies (GWAS) to focus on the relationship between disease risk and genetic variants one marker at a time. When relevant genes are identified it is often possible to implicate biological intermediates and pathways likely to be involved in disease...... aetiology. However, single genetic variants typically explain small amounts of disease risk. Our idea is to construct allelic scores that explain greater proportions of the variance in biological intermediates, and subsequently use these scores to data mine GWAS. To investigate the approach's properties, we...

Quantitative assessment of multiple sclerosis lesion load using CAD and expert input

Science.gov (United States)

Gertych, Arkadiusz; Wong, Alexis; Sangnil, Alan; Liu, Brent J.

2008-03-01

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a frequently encountered neurological disease with a progressive but variable course affecting the central nervous system. Outline-based lesion quantification in the assessment of lesion load (LL) performed on magnetic resonance (MR) images is clinically useful and provides information about the development and change reflecting overall disease burden. Methods of LL assessment that rely on human input are tedious, have higher intra- and inter-observer variability and are more time-consuming than computerized automatic (CAD) techniques. At present it seems that methods based on human lesion identification preceded by non-interactive outlining by CAD are the best LL quantification strategies. We have developed a CAD that automatically quantifies MS lesions, displays 3-D lesion map and appends radiological findings to original images according to current DICOM standard. CAD is also capable to display and track changes and make comparison between patient's separate MRI studies to determine disease progression. The findings are exported to a separate imaging tool for review and final approval by expert. Capturing and standardized archiving of manual contours is also implemented. Similarity coefficients calculated from quantities of LL in collected exams show a good correlation of CAD-derived results vs. those incorporated as expert's reading. Combining the CAD approach with an expert interaction may impact to the diagnostic work-up of MS patients because of improved reproducibility in LL assessment and reduced time for single MR or comparative exams reading. Inclusion of CAD-generated outlines as DICOM-compliant overlays into the image data can serve as a better reference in MS progression tracking.

ART-Ada: An Ada-based expert system tool

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, S. Daniel; Allen, Bradley P.

1991-01-01

The Department of Defense mandate to standardize on Ada as the language for software systems development has resulted in increased interest in making expert systems technology readily available in Ada environments. NASA's Space Station Freedom is an example of the large Ada software development projects that will require expert systems in the 1990's. Another large scale application that can benefit from Ada based expert system tool technology is the Pilot's Associate (PA) expert system project for military combat aircraft. Automated Reasoning Tool (ART) Ada, an Ada Expert system tool is described. ART-Ada allow applications of a C-based expert system tool called ART-IM to be deployed in various Ada environments. ART-Ada is being used to implement several prototype expert systems for NASA's Space Station Freedom Program and the U.S. Air Force.

Methodology toward second generation expert systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dormoy, J.L.

1989-01-01

So-called First Generation Expert Systems were aimed at capturing the expert's know-how. Though providing remarkable achievements, this first wave did not give the expected outcome. A new generation is getting out from the laboratories. Instead of remaining at a shallow level of knowledge - that is the unmotivated reasoning processes expressed by an expert when he is forced to tell them - one attempts to re-build this level of knowledge from the first principles which constitute the basis of an expert's knowledge. These systems are called deep knowledge-based, or second generation expert systems. Discussion in the three first parts rests on two examples: A first generation and a half system for process control in nuclear powers plants, than the system EXTRA for alarm processing in nuclear plants, wherein fonctional knowledge is explicitely represented. We show how deep knowledge can be implemented, and the advantages that can be expected from this methodology. Qualitative Physics is discussed in the next part. Future research developments as well as potential payoffs are mentioned [fr

False confessions, expert testimony, and admissibility.

Science.gov (United States)

Watson, Clarence; Weiss, Kenneth J; Pouncey, Claire

2010-01-01

The confession of a criminal defendant serves as a prosecutor's most compelling piece of evidence during trial. Courts must preserve a defendant's constitutional right to a fair trial while upholding the judicial interests of presenting competent and reliable evidence to the jury. When a defendant seeks to challenge the validity of that confession through expert testimony, the prosecution often contests the admissibility of the expert's opinion. Depending on the content and methodology of the expert's opinion, testimony addressing the phenomenon of false confessions may or may not be admissible. This article outlines the scientific and epistemological bases of expert testimony on false confession, notes the obstacles facing its admissibility, and provides guidance to the expert in formulating opinions that will reach the judge or jury. We review the 2006 New Jersey Superior Court decision in State of New Jersey v. George King to illustrate what is involved in the admissibility of false-confession testimony and use the case as a starting point in developing a best-practice approach to working in this area.

Expert PLSQL Practices

CERN Document Server

Beresniewicz, John

2011-01-01

Expert PL/SQL Practices is a book of collected wisdom on PL/SQL programming from some of the best and the brightest in the field. Each chapter is a deep-dive into a specific problem, technology, or feature set that you'll face as a PL/SQL programmer. Each author has chosen their topic out of the strong belief that what they share can make a positive difference in the quality and scalability of code that you write. The path to mastery begins with syntax and the mechanics of writing statements to make things happen. If you've reached that point with PL/SQL, then let the authors of Expert PL/SQL

Glyphosate rodent carcinogenicity bioassay expert panel review.

Science.gov (United States)

Williams, Gary M; Berry, Colin; Burns, Michele; de Camargo, Joao Lauro Viana; Greim, Helmut

2016-09-01

Glyphosate has been rigorously and extensively tested for carcinogenicity by administration to mice (five studies) and to rats (nine studies). Most authorities have concluded that the evidence does not indicate a cancer risk to humans. The International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC), however, evaluated some of the available data and concluded that glyphosate probably is carcinogenic to humans. The expert panel convened by Intertek assessed the findings used by IARC, as well as the full body of evidence and found the following: (1) the renal neoplastic effects in males of one mouse study are not associated with glyphosate exposure, because they lack statistical significance, strength, consistency, specificity, lack a dose-response pattern, plausibility, and coherence; (2) the strength of association of liver hemangiosarcomas in a different mouse study is absent, lacking consistency, and a dose-response effect and having in high dose males only a significant incidence increase which is within the historical control range; (3) pancreatic islet-cell adenomas (non-significant incidence increase), in two studies of male SD rats did not progress to carcinomas and lacked a dose-response pattern (the highest incidence is in the low dose followed by the high dose); (4) in one of two studies, a non-significant positive trend in the incidence of hepatocellular adenomas in male rats did not lead to progression to carcinomas; (5) in one of two studies, the non-significant positive trend in the incidence of thyroid C-cell adenomas in female rats was not present and there was no progression of adenomas to carcinomas at the end of the study. Application of criteria for causality considerations to the above mentioned tumor types and given the overall weight-of-evidence (WoE), the expert panel concluded that glyphosate is not a carcinogen in laboratory animals.

Expert systems for superalloy studies

Science.gov (United States)

Workman, Gary L.; Kaukler, William F.

1990-01-01

There are many areas in science and engineering which require knowledge of an extremely complex foundation of experimental results in order to design methodologies for developing new materials or products. Superalloys are an area which fit well into this discussion in the sense that they are complex combinations of elements which exhibit certain characteristics. Obviously the use of superalloys in high performance, high temperature systems such as the Space Shuttle Main Engine is of interest to NASA. The superalloy manufacturing process is complex and the implementation of an expert system within the design process requires some thought as to how and where it should be implemented. A major motivation is to develop a methodology to assist metallurgists in the design of superalloy materials using current expert systems technology. Hydrogen embrittlement is disasterous to rocket engines and the heuristics can be very complex. Attacking this problem as one module in the overall design process represents a significant step forward. In order to describe the objectives of the first phase implementation, the expert system was designated Hydrogen Environment Embrittlement Expert System (HEEES).

Expert systems as decision tools

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Scott, C.K.

1989-01-01

The feasibility of using expert systems as an aid in regulatory compliance functions has been investigated. A literature review was carried out to identify applications of expert systems to regulatory affairs. A bibliography of the small literature on such applications was prepared. A prototype system, ARIES, was developed to demonstrate the use of an expert system as an aid to a Project Officer in assuring compliance with licence requirements. The system runs on a personal computer with a graphical interface. Extensive use is made of hypertext to link interrelated rules and requirements as well as to provide an explanation facility. Based on the performance of ARIES the development of a field version is recommended

Validation of acute physiologic and chronic health evaluation II scoring system software developed at The Aga Khan University, Pakistan.

Science.gov (United States)

Hashmi, M; Asghar, A; Shamim, F; Khan, F H

2016-01-01

To assess the predictive performance of Acute Physiologic and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) software available on the hospital intranet and analyze interrater reliability of calculating the APACHE II score by the gold standard manual method or automatically using the software. An expert scorer not involved in the data collection had calculated APACHE II score of 213 patients admitted to surgical Intensive Care Unit using the gold standard manual method for a previous study performed in the department. The same data were entered into the computer software available on the hospital intranet (http://intranet/apacheii) to recalculate the APACHE II score automatically along with the predicted mortality. Receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC), Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit statistical test and Pearson's correlation coefficient was computed. The 213 patients had an average APACHE II score of 17.20 ± 8.24, the overall mortality rate was 32.8% and standardized mortality ratio was 1.00. The area under the ROC curve of 0.827 was significantly >0.5 (P test showed a good calibration (H = 5.46, P = 0.71). Interrater reliability using Pearson's product moment correlations demonstrated a strong positive relationship between the computer and the manual expert scorer (r = 0.98, P = 0.0005). APACHE II software available on the hospital's intranet has satisfactory calibration and discrimination and interrater reliability is good when compared with the gold standard manual method.

From expert witness to defendant: abolition of expert witness protection and its implications.

Science.gov (United States)

Mendelson, Danuta

2012-12-01

In Jones v Kaney [2011] 2 AC 398, the United Kingdom Supreme Court held that in England and Wales (but not in Scotland), clients can sue expert witnesses in negligence and/or contract for work performed under their retainer, whether in civil or criminal trials. The duties of expert witnesses in England are regulated by the Civil Procedure Rules and Protocols; the former also regulate the conduct of cases involving expert opinions. The legal context that led to the litigation is examined in the light of these rules, in particular, the nature of the allegations against Dr Kaney, a psychologist retained to provide psychiatric opinion. Jones v Kaney, as a decision of the United Kingdom Supreme Court, is not a binding precedent in Australia. However, unlike statutory enactments, common law judgments are retrospective in their operation, which means that health care practitioners who follow a generally accepted practice today may still be sued for damages by their patients or clients in the future. By definition, the future, including the refusal by the Australian High Court to follow Kaney's abolition of expert witnesses' immunity from suit for breach of duty to their clients, cannot be predicted with certainty. Consequently, health care practitioners in Australia and other countries should be aware of the case, its jurisprudential and practical ramifications.

Expert system for fast reactor diagnostic

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Parcy, J.P.

1982-09-01

A general description of expert systems is given. The operation of a fast reactor is reviewed. The expert system to the diagnosis of breakdowns limited to the reactor core. The structure of the system is described: specification of the diagnostics; structure of the data bank and evaluation of the rules; specification of the prediagnostics and evaluation; explanation of the diagnostics; time evolution of the system; comparison with other expert systems. Applications to some cases of faults are finally presented [fr

The expert consensus guideline series. Optimizing pharmacologic treatment of psychotic disorders. Introduction: methods, commentary, and summary.

Science.gov (United States)

Kane, John M; Leucht, Stefan; Carpenter, Daniel; Docherty, John P

2003-01-01

A growing number of atypical antipsychotics are available for clinicians to choose from in the treatment of psychotic disorders. However, a number of important questions concerning medication selection, dosing and dose equivalence, and the management of inadequate response, compliance problems, and relapse have not been adequately addressed by clinical trials. To aid clinical decision-making, a consensus survey of expert opinion on the pharmacologic treatment of psychotic disorders was undertaken to address questions not definitively answered in the research literature. Based on a literature review, a written survey was developed with 60 questions and 994 options. Approximately half of the options were scored using a modified version of the RAND 9-point scale for rating the appropriateness of medical decisions. For the other options, the experts were asked to write in answers (e.g., average doses) or check a box to indicate their preferred answer. The survey was sent to 50 national experts on the pharmacologic treatment of psychotic disorders, 47 (94%) of whom completed it. In analyzing the responses to items rated on the 9-point scale, consensus on each option was defined as a non random distribution of scores by chi-square "goodness-of-fit"test. We assigned a categorical rank (first line/preferred choice,second line/alternate choice, third line/usually inappropriate) to each option based on the 95% confidence interval around the mean rating. Guideline tables indicating preferred treatment strategies were then developed for key clinical situations. The expert panel reached consensus on 88% of the options rated on the 9-point scale. The experts overwhelmingly endorsed the atypical antipsychotics for the treatment of psychotic disorders. Risperidone was the top choice for first-episode and multi-episode patients, with the other newer atypicals rated first line or high second line depending on the clinical situation. Clozapine and a long-acting injectable atypical

Sherlock Holmes: an expert's view of expertise.

Science.gov (United States)

André, Didierjean; Fernand, Gobet

2008-02-01

In recent years, there has been an intense research effort to understand the cognitive processes and structures underlying expert behaviour. Work in different fields, including scientific domains, sports, games and mnemonics, has shown that there are vast differences in perceptual abilities between experts and novices, and that these differences may underpin other cognitive differences in learning, memory and problem solving. In this article, we evaluate the progress made in the last years through the eyes of an outstanding, albeit fictional, expert: Sherlock Holmes. We first use the Sherlock Holmes character to illustrate expert processes as described by current research and theories. In particular, the role of perception, as well as the nature and influence of expert knowledge, are all present in the description of Conan Doyle's hero. In the second part of the article, we discuss a number of issues that current research on expertise has barely addressed. These gaps include, for example, several forms of reasoning, the influence of emotions on cognition, and the effect of age on experts' knowledge and cognitive processes. Thus, although nearly 120-year-old, Conan Doyle's books show remarkable illustrations of expert behaviour, including the coverage of themes that have mostly been overlooked by current research.

21 CFR 516.141 - Qualified expert panels.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... choose members for the qualified expert panel in accordance with selection criteria listed in paragraph... whether the proposed qualified expert panel meets the selection criteria prior to the panel beginning its... Committee Act, as amended, 5 U.S.C. App. (b) Criteria for the selection of a qualified expert panel. (1) A...

Differentiating Experts' Anticipatory Skills in Beach Volleyball

Science.gov (United States)

Canal-Bruland, Rouwen; Mooren, Merel; Savelsbergh, Geert J. P.

2011-01-01

In this study, we examined how perceptual-motor expertise and watching experience contribute to anticipating the outcome of opponents' attacking actions in beach volleyball. To this end, we invited 8 expert beach volleyball players, 8 expert coaches, 8 expert referees, and 8 control participants with no beach volleyball experience to watch videos…

Development of an antibiotic spectrum score based on veterans affairs culture and susceptibility data for the purpose of measuring antibiotic de-escalation: a modified Delphi approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Madaras-Kelly, Karl; Jones, Makoto; Remington, Richard; Hill, Nicole; Huttner, Benedikt; Samore, Matthew

2014-09-01

Development of a numerical score to measure the microbial spectrum of antibiotic regimens (spectrum score) and method to identify antibiotic de-escalation events based on application of the score. Web-based modified Delphi method. Physician and pharmacist antimicrobial stewards practicing in the United States recruited through infectious diseases-focused listservs. Three Delphi rounds investigated: organisms and antibiotics to include in the spectrum score, operationalization of rules for the score, and de-escalation measurement. A 4-point ordinal scale was used to score antibiotic susceptibility for organism-antibiotic domain pairs. Antibiotic regimen scores, which represented combined activity of antibiotics in a regimen across all organism domains, were used to compare antibiotic spectrum administered early (day 2) and later (day 4) in therapy. Changes in spectrum score were calculated and compared with Delphi participants' judgments on de-escalation with 20 antibiotic regimen vignettes and with non-Delphi steward judgments on de-escalation of 300 pneumonia regimen vignettes. Method sensitivity and specificity to predict expert de-escalation status were calculated. Twenty-four participants completed all Delphi rounds. Expert support for concepts utilized in metric development was identified. For vignettes presented in the Delphi, the sign of change in score correctly classified de-escalation in all vignettes except those involving substitution of oral antibiotics. The sensitivity and specificity of the method to identify de-escalation events as judged by non-Delphi stewards were 86.3% and 96.0%, respectively. Identification of de-escalation events based on an algorithm that measures microbial spectrum of antibiotic regimens generally agreed with steward judgments of de-escalation status.

Measuring the Effectiveness of Gamesourcing Expert Oil Painting Annotations

NARCIS (Netherlands)

M.C. Traub (Myriam); J.R. van Ossenbruggen (Jacco); J. He (Jiyin); L. Hardman (Lynda); M. de Rijke (Maarten); T Kentner; A.P. de Vries (Arjen); F.M.G. de Jong (Franciska); C. Zhai (ChengXiang ); K. Hofmann (Katja); K. Radinsky

2014-01-01

htmlabstractTasks that require users to have expert knowledge are diffi- cult to crowdsource. They are mostly too complex to be carried out by non-experts and the available experts in the crowd are difficult to target. Adapting an expert task into a non-expert user task, thereby enabling the

Artificial intelligence and expert systems in-flight software testing

Science.gov (United States)

Demasie, M. P.; Muratore, J. F.

1991-01-01

The authors discuss the introduction of advanced information systems technologies such as artificial intelligence, expert systems, and advanced human-computer interfaces directly into Space Shuttle software engineering. The reconfiguration automation project (RAP) was initiated to coordinate this move towards 1990s software technology. The idea behind RAP is to automate several phases of the flight software testing procedure and to introduce AI and ES into space shuttle flight software testing. In the first phase of RAP, conventional tools to automate regression testing have already been developed or acquired. There are currently three tools in use.

[Telemedicine correlation in retinopathy of prematurity between experts and non-expert observers].

Science.gov (United States)

Ossandón, D; Zanolli, M; López, J P; Stevenson, R; Agurto, R; Cartes, C

2015-01-01

To study the correlation between expert and non-expert observers in the reporting images for the diagnosis of retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) in a telemedicine setting. A cross-sectional, multicenter study, consisting of 25 sets of images of patients screened for ROP. They were evaluated by two experts in ROP and 1 non-expert and classified according to telemedicine classification, zone, stage, plus disease and Ells referral criteria. The telemedicine classification was: no ROP, mild ROP, type 2 ROP, or ROP that requires treatment. Ells referral criteria is defined as the presence at least one of the following: ROP in zone I, Stage 3 in zone I or II, or plus+ For statistical analysis, SPSS 16.0 was used. For correlation, Kappa value was performed. There was a high correlation between observers for the assessment of ROP stage (0.75; 0.54-0.88) plus disease (0.85; 0.71-0.92), and Ells criteria (0.89; 0.83-1.0). However, inter-observer values were low for zone (0.41; 0.27-0.54) and telemedicine classification (0.43; 0.33-0.6). When evaluating telemedicine images by examiners with different levels of expertise in ROP, the Ells criteria gave the best correlation. In addition, stage of disease and plus disease have good correlation among observers. In contrast, the correlation between observers was low for zone and telemedicine classification. Copyright © 2014 Sociedad Española de Oftalmología. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Expert system for liquid low-level waste management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ferrada, J.J.

1992-01-01

An expert system prototype has been developed to support system analysis activities at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) for waste management tasks. This expert system will aid in prioritizing radioactive waste streams for treatment and disposal by evaluating the severity and treatability of the problem as well as the final waste form. The objectives of the expert system development included: (1) collecting information on process treatment technologies for liquid low-level waste (LLLW) that can be incorporated in the knowledge base of the expert system, and (2) producing a prototype that suggests processes and disposal technologies for the ORNL LLLW system. The concept under which the expert system has been designed is integration of knowledge. There are many sources of knowledge (data bases, text files, simulation programs, etc.) that an expert would regularly consult in order to solve a problem of liquid waste management. The expert would normally know how to extract the information from these different sources of knowledge. The general scope of this project would be to include as much pertinent information as possible within the boundaries of the expert system. As a result, the user, who may not be an expert in every aspect of liquid waste management, may be able to apply the content of the information to a specific waste problem. This paper gives the methodological steps to develop the expert system under this general framework

Proposal of a system of indicators to assess the training of experts in a high-tech organization

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Elías Hardy, Lidia Lauren; González Olaguive, Elizabeth Vicenta; Martínez Martínez, Elisa

2015-01-01

Objective: present a proposal of a system of indicators to assess actions aimed at the training and development of experts in a high-tech organization. Methods: an analysis was conducted of the various theories dealing with the training and development of experts, examining their features and components. Design of the system of indicators was based on surveys and direct observation. The system of indicators thus designed was validated with the Delphi method, the application of the Likert scale and the statistical treatment of answers provided by experts, using median and interquartile range values to establish the consensus of experts. Results: a working definition is proposed of the concept expert based on two dimensions: qualification and performance, and individual and collective variables, indicators and measurement criteria. Cronbach's alpha coefficient (0,8655) showed the internal consistency of the tool used. The median and interquartile range values obtained made it possible to establish the consensus of participants in the validation of the system of indicators. Conclusions: the system of indicators developed and its two dimensions make it possible to assess the training and development of experts at the Cuban Neuroscience Center, as well as the system of actions performed. The indicator showing the lowest results is that of productivity of experts in the training of human resources of high academic level. (author)

Renewable energy systems the earthscan expert guide to renewable energy technologies for home and business

CERN Document Server

Jenkins, Dilwyn

2013-01-01

This book is the long awaited guide for anyone interested in renewables at home or work. It sweeps away scores of common misconceptions while clearly illustrating the best in renewable and energy efficiency technologies. A fully illustrated guide to renewable energy for the home and small business, the book provides an expert overview of precisely which sustainable energy technologies are appropriate for wide-spread domestic and small business application. The sections on different renewable energy options provide detailed descriptions of each technology along with case studies, installatio

Expert Systems for auditing management information systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gheroghe Popescu

2007-05-01

Full Text Available Expert systems are built with the help of: specialised programming languages or expert system generators (shell. But this structure was reached after tens of years of work and research, because expert systems are nothing but pragmatic capitalisation of the results of research carried out in artificial intelligence and theory of knowledge.

An Evaluation of the IntelliMetric[SM] Essay Scoring System

Science.gov (United States)

Rudner, Lawrence M.; Garcia, Veronica; Welch, Catherine

2006-01-01

This report provides a two-part evaluation of the IntelliMetric[SM] automated essay scoring system based on its performance scoring essays from the Analytic Writing Assessment of the Graduate Management Admission Test[TM] (GMAT[TM]). The IntelliMetric system performance is first compared to that of individual human raters, a Bayesian system…

Expert System for Determination of Type Lenses Glasses Using Forward Chaining Method

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Atikah Ari Pramesti

2016-11-01

Full Text Available One of the branches of computer science that is widely used by humans to help her work is the establishment of an expert system. In this study we will design an expert system for determining the type of spectacle lenses using a forward chaining method. In forward chaining method, starting with the initial information (early symptoms and moved forward to fit more information to find the information in accordance with the rules of the knowledge base and production, and will be concluded in the form of the type of disorder diagnosis of eye disorders and provide solutions in the form of lenses of eyeglasses. Result from this study is that the match calculation of algorithm of forward chaining method between system and manual calculations produce the same output.

Expert Involvement and Adherence to Medical Evidence in Medical Mobile Phone Apps: A Systematic Review.

Science.gov (United States)

Subhi, Yousif; Bube, Sarah Hjartbro; Rolskov Bojsen, Signe; Skou Thomsen, Ann Sofia; Konge, Lars

2015-07-27

Both clinicians and patients use medical mobile phone apps. Anyone can publish medical apps, which leads to contents with variable quality that may have a serious impact on human lives. We herein provide an overview of the prevalence of expert involvement in app development and whether or not app contents adhere to current medical evidence. To systematically review studies evaluating expert involvement or adherence of app content to medical evidence in medical mobile phone apps. We systematically searched 3 databases (PubMed, The Cochrane Library, and EMBASE), and included studies evaluating expert involvement or adherence of app content to medical evidence in medical mobile phone apps. Two authors performed data extraction independently. Qualitative analysis of the included studies was performed. Based on inclusion criteria, 52 studies were included in this review. These studies assessed a total of 6520 apps. Studies dealt with a variety of medical specialties and topics. As much as 28 studies assessed expert involvement, which was found in 9-67% of the assessed apps. Thirty studies (including 6 studies that also assessed expert involvement) assessed adherence of app content to current medical evidence. Thirteen studies found that 10-87% of the assessed apps adhered fully to the compared evidence (published studies, recommendations, and guidelines). Seventeen studies found that none of the assessed apps (n=2237) adhered fully to the compared evidence. Most medical mobile phone apps lack expert involvement and do not adhere to relevant medical evidence.

Expert Cold Structure Development

Science.gov (United States)

Atkins, T.; Demuysere, P.

2011-05-01

The EXPERT Program is funded by ESA. The objective of the EXPERT mission is to perform a sub-orbital flight during which measurements of critical aero- thermodynamic phenomena will be obtained by using state-of-the-art instrumentation. As part of the EXPERT Flight Segment, the responsibility of the Cold Structure Development Design, Manufacturing and Validation was committed to the Belgian industrial team SONACA/SABCA. The EXPERT Cold Structure includes the Launcher Adapter, the Bottom Panel, the Upper Panel, two Cross Panels and the Parachute Bay. An additional Launcher Adapter was manufactured for the separation tests. The selected assembly definition and manufacturing technologies ( machined parts and sandwich panels) were dictated classically by the mass and stiffness, but also by the CoG location and the sensitive separation interface. Used as support for the various on-board equipment, the Cold Structure is fixed to but thermally uncoupled from the PM 1000 thermal shield. It is protect on its bottom panel by a thermal blanket. As it is a protoflight, analysis was the main tool for the verification. Low level stiffness and modal analysis tests have also been performed on the Cold Structure equipped with its ballast. It allowed to complete its qualification and to prepare SONACA/SABCA support for the system dynamic tests foreseen in 2011. The structure was finally coated with a thermal control black painting and delivered on time to Thales Alenia Space-Italy end of March 201.

MRF-ANN: a machine learning approach for automated ER scoring of breast cancer immunohistochemical images.

Science.gov (United States)

Mungle, T; Tewary, S; DAS, D K; Arun, I; Basak, B; Agarwal, S; Ahmed, R; Chatterjee, S; Chakraborty, C

2017-08-01

Molecular pathology, especially immunohistochemistry, plays an important role in evaluating hormone receptor status along with diagnosis of breast cancer. Time-consumption and inter-/intraobserver variability are major hindrances for evaluating the receptor score. In view of this, the paper proposes an automated Allred Scoring methodology for estrogen receptor (ER). White balancing is used to normalize the colour image taking into consideration colour variation during staining in different labs. Markov random field model with expectation-maximization optimization is employed to segment the ER cells. The proposed segmentation methodology is found to have F-measure 0.95. Artificial neural network is subsequently used to obtain intensity-based score for ER cells, from pixel colour intensity features. Simultaneously, proportion score - percentage of ER positive cells is computed via cell counting. The final ER score is computed by adding intensity and proportion scores - a standard Allred scoring system followed by pathologists. The classification accuracy for classification of cells by classifier in terms of F-measure is 0.9626. The problem of subjective interobserver ability is addressed by quantifying ER score from two expert pathologist and proposed methodology. The intraclass correlation achieved is greater than 0.90. The study has potential advantage of assisting pathologist in decision making over manual procedure and could evolve as a part of automated decision support system with other receptor scoring/analysis procedure. © 2017 The Authors Journal of Microscopy © 2017 Royal Microscopical Society.

Expert judgment for nuclear energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Choi, Young Sung; Lee, Sun Ho; Lee, Byong Whi

2000-01-01

Public perception on nuclear energy is much influenced by subjective impressions mostly formed through sensational and dramatic news of mass media or anti-nuclear groups. However, nuclear experts, those who have more relevant knowledge and information about nuclear energy, may have reasonable opinion based on scientific facts or inferences. Thus their opinion and consensus should be examined and taken into account during the process of nuclear energy policy formulation. For the purpose of eliciting experts' opinion, the web-based on-line survey system (eBOSS) was developed. Using the survey system, experts' views on nuclear energy were tallied, analyzed and compared with the public's. Based on the survey results, the paper suggests some recommendations about the future direction of the public information program in Korea

Application of SLIM-MAUD: A test of an interactive computer-based method for organizing expert assessment of human performance and reliability: Volume 2, Appendices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Spettell, C.M.; Rosa, E.A.; Humphreys, P.C.; Embrey, D.E.

1986-10-01

The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has been conducting a multiyear research program to investigate different methods for using expert judgments to estimate human error probabilities (HEPs) in nuclear power plants. One of the methods investigated, derived from multi-attribute utility theory, is the Success Likelihood Index Methodolocy implemented through Multi-Attribute Utility Decomposition (SLIM-MAUD). This report describes a systematic test application of the SLIM-MAUD methodology. The test application is evaluated on the basis of three criteria: practicality, acceptability, and usefulness. Volume I of this report represents an overview of SLIM-MAUD, describes the procedures followed in the test application, and provides a summary of the results obtained. Volume II consists of technical appendices to support in detail the materials contained in Volume I, and the users' package of explicit procedures to be followed in implementing SLIM-MAUD. The results obtained in the test application provide support for the application of SLIM-MAUD to a wide variety of applications requiring estimates of human errors

Can linear regression modeling help clinicians in the interpretation of genotypic resistance data? An application to derive a lopinavir-score.

Science.gov (United States)

Cozzi-Lepri, Alessandro; Prosperi, Mattia C F; Kjær, Jesper; Dunn, David; Paredes, Roger; Sabin, Caroline A; Lundgren, Jens D; Phillips, Andrew N; Pillay, Deenan

2011-01-01

The question of whether a score for a specific antiretroviral (e.g. lopinavir/r in this analysis) that improves prediction of viral load response given by existing expert-based interpretation systems (IS) could be derived from analyzing the correlation between genotypic data and virological response using statistical methods remains largely unanswered. We used the data of the patients from the UK Collaborative HIV Cohort (UK CHIC) Study for whom genotypic data were stored in the UK HIV Drug Resistance Database (UK HDRD) to construct a training/validation dataset of treatment change episodes (TCE). We used the average square error (ASE) on a 10-fold cross-validation and on a test dataset (the EuroSIDA TCE database) to compare the performance of a newly derived lopinavir/r score with that of the 3 most widely used expert-based interpretation rules (ANRS, HIVDB and Rega). Our analysis identified mutations V82A, I54V, K20I and I62V, which were associated with reduced viral response and mutations I15V and V91S which determined lopinavir/r hypersensitivity. All models performed equally well (ASE on test ranging between 1.1 and 1.3, p = 0.34). We fully explored the potential of linear regression to construct a simple predictive model for lopinavir/r-based TCE. Although, the performance of our proposed score was similar to that of already existing IS, previously unrecognized lopinavir/r-associated mutations were identified. The analysis illustrates an approach of validation of expert-based IS that could be used in the future for other antiretrovirals and in other settings outside HIV research.

Waste disposal experts meet

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1959-01-15

Problems connected with the disposal into the sea of radioactive wastes from peaceful uses of atomic energy are being examined by a panel of experts, convened by the International Atomic Energy Agency. These experts from eight different countries held a first meeting at IAEA headquarters in Vienna from 4-9 December 1958, under the chairmanship of Dr. Harry Brynielsson, Director General of the Swedish Atomic Energy Company. The countries represented are: Canada, Czechoslovakia, France, Japan, Netherlands, United Kingdom and United States. The group will meet again in 1959. (author)

Application Of The CSRL Language To The Design Of Diagnostic Expert Systems: The Moodis Experience, A Preliminary Report

Science.gov (United States)

Bravos, Angelo; Hill, Howard; Choca, James; Bresolin, Linda B.; Bresolin, Michael J.

1986-03-01

Computer technology is rapidly becoming an inseparable part of many health science specialties. Recently, a new area of computer technology, namely Artificial Intelligence, has been applied toward assisting the medical experts in their diagnostic and therapeutic decision making process. MOODIS is an experimental diagnostic expert system which assists Psychiatry specialists in diagnosing human Mood Disorders, better known as Affective Disorders. Its diagnostic methodology is patterned after MDX, a diagnostic expert system developed at LAIR (Laboratory for Artificial Intelligence Research) of Ohio State University. MOODIS is implemented in CSRL (Conceptual Structures Representation Language) also developed at LAIR. This paper describes MOODIS in terms of conceptualization and requirements, and discusses why the MDX approach and CSRL were chosen.

Differences of wells scores accuracy, caprini scores and padua scores in deep vein thrombosis diagnosis

Science.gov (United States)

Gatot, D.; Mardia, A. I.

2018-03-01

Deep Vein Thrombosis (DVT) is the venous thrombus in lower limbs. Diagnosis is by using venography or ultrasound compression. However, these examinations are not available yet in some health facilities. Therefore many scoring systems are developed for the diagnosis of DVT. The scoring method is practical and safe to use in addition to efficacy, and effectiveness in terms of treatment and costs. The existing scoring systems are wells, caprini and padua score. There have been many studies comparing the accuracy of this score but not in Medan. Therefore, we are interested in comparative research of wells, capriniand padua score in Medan.An observational, analytical, case-control study was conducted to perform diagnostic tests on the wells, caprini and padua score to predict the risk of DVT. The study was at H. Adam Malik Hospital in Medan.From a total of 72 subjects, 39 people (54.2%) are men and the mean age are 53.14 years. Wells score, caprini score and padua score has a sensitivity of 80.6%; 61.1%, 50% respectively; specificity of 80.65; 66.7%; 75% respectively, and accuracy of 87.5%; 64.3%; 65.7% respectively.Wells score has better sensitivity, specificity and accuracy than caprini and padua score in diagnosing DVT.

Expert clinical reasoning and pain assessment in mechanically ventilated patients: A descriptive study.

Science.gov (United States)

Gerber, Anne; Thevoz, Anne-Laure; Ramelet, Anne-Sylvie

2015-02-01

Pain assessment in mechanically ventilated patients is challenging, because nurses need to decode pain behaviour, interpret pain scores, and make appropriate decisions. This clinical reasoning process is inherent to advanced nursing practice, but is poorly understood. A better understanding of this process could contribute to improved pain assessment and management. This study aimed to describe the indicators that influence expert nurses' clinical reasoning when assessing pain in critically ill nonverbal patients. This descriptive observational study was conducted in the adult intensive care unit (ICU) of a tertiary referral hospital in Western Switzerland. A purposive sample of expert nurses, caring for nonverbal ventilated patients who received sedation and analgesia, were invited to participate in the study. Data were collected in "real life" using recorded think-aloud combined with direct non-participant observation and brief interviews. Data were analysed using deductive and inductive content analyses using a theoretical framework related to clinical reasoning and pain. Seven expert nurses with an average of 7.85 (±3.1) years of critical care experience participated in the study. The patients had respiratory distress (n=2), cardiac arrest (n=2), sub-arachnoid bleeding (n=1), and multi-trauma (n=2). A total of 1344 quotes in five categories were identified. Patients' physiological stability was the principal indicator for making decision in relation to pain management. Results also showed that it is a permanent challenge for nurses to discriminate situations requiring sedation from situations requiring analgesia. Expert nurses mainly used working knowledge and patterns to anticipate and prevent pain. Patient's clinical condition is important for making decision about pain in critically ill nonverbal patients. The concept of pain cannot be assessed in isolation and its assessment should take the patient's clinical stability and sedation into account. Further

What happens after development? Getting an expert system tested and deployed

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Trovato, S.A.; Touchton, R.A.; Rausch, S.D.

1992-01-01

Knowledge based computer systems are an innovative form of programming which incorporate the logic of an expert(s) or knowledge in a given domain into tasks performed by a computer. Knowledge based systems are based on symbolic processing rather than numeric processing which forms the foundation for most computer software. This type of programming processes knowledge using logical inference whereas more conventional software processes data procedurally or mathematically. While the concept of knowledge-based systems and expert systems has been considered for several decades, it is not until recently that these systems have appeared in common applications. With the entry of low cost, high speed, large memory desk top computers into business, knowledge based systems have become economical for utility use. Verification and validation (V ampersand V) of computer systems is used to provide a quality software system through independent technical review and evaluation. This process assures that the final software system delivered to the users is problem free, serves the intended functions, performs satisfactorily and fulfills its function in a manner which considers the human element. New methods and industry guidelines for V ampersand V of knowledge based systems are needed. This is particularly true in the nuclear power industry where the costs of development and down side risks are high. This paper discusses the approach developed and applied to the V ampersand V of an on-line expert system being implemented at Consolidated Edison Company of New York, Inc.'s (Con Edison) Indian Point 2 nuclear power station. 2 figs

Expert-guided evolutionary algorithm for layout design of complex space stations

Science.gov (United States)

Qian, Zhiqin; Bi, Zhuming; Cao, Qun; Ju, Weiguo; Teng, Hongfei; Zheng, Yang; Zheng, Siyu

2017-08-01

The layout of a space station should be designed in such a way that different equipment and instruments are placed for the station as a whole to achieve the best overall performance. The station layout design is a typical nondeterministic polynomial problem. In particular, how to manage the design complexity to achieve an acceptable solution within a reasonable timeframe poses a great challenge. In this article, a new evolutionary algorithm has been proposed to meet such a challenge. It is called as the expert-guided evolutionary algorithm with a tree-like structure decomposition (EGEA-TSD). Two innovations in EGEA-TSD are (i) to deal with the design complexity, the entire design space is divided into subspaces with a tree-like structure; it reduces the computation and facilitates experts' involvement in the solving process. (ii) A human-intervention interface is developed to allow experts' involvement in avoiding local optimums and accelerating convergence. To validate the proposed algorithm, the layout design of one-space station is formulated as a multi-disciplinary design problem, the developed algorithm is programmed and executed, and the result is compared with those from other two algorithms; it has illustrated the superior performance of the proposed EGEA-TSD.

Lo Score: un algoritmo per investigare la Body Knowledge

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Letizia Gioa Monda

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Both inside and outside theatre, body work is the first and principle aspect of work on the ‘self’. It is the first inescapable step in the path toward the aware action which in theatre is the “action in perception”, i.e. thinking-in-movement. This aware thought involves the whole background of the person. It is an action that arises only when the person is present and at the same time dynamically involved entirely in the environment: it is the perceptual consciousness that integrates the planning of the action with the execution of the same action. “Thinking-in-movement” is a dynamic process that is not possible to be codified: it is a language that asks to be experienced in order to be able to be understood and learned. Therefore, what is the Score? Is it a concept, a method of movement, or a digital tool? Perhaps it is each one of these things. The Score is an indispensable algorithm to read the dance that the human writes in order to obtain information, transfer them and so continue in the evolution of the body knowledge. The Score is the medium in which the human being structured tensions are shaped: i.e., an alternative site to understand the potential instigation of the human body and the organization of his residual actions. In this article I will read the score like a crystal: metaphor of the shaped dynamism innate in the expressive movement. I will explain how this crystal is the necessary channel to make sure the choreographic counterpoint can show up during the live performance. I will explore what this means for the choreographers involved in Motion Bank - William Forsythe, Deborah Hay, Jonathan Burrows and Matteo Fargion - analyzing the somatic connections between their dance-making and the score-creation.

Study on advanced nuclear power plants expert evaluation system in China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang Qi; Yoshikawa, Hidekazu; Shimoda, Hiroshi; Zhou Zhiwei; Zhu Shutang; Ren Junsheng; Yang Mengjia; Gu Junyang

2005-01-01

Based on current status and developing trend of nuclear power plant technology, an evaluation software system is developed to assess advanced NPPs systematically according to a set of pre-established evaluation indices. The selection and classification of the indices, the determination of their weighting factors in applying AHP (analytic hierarchy process) method are discussed. The Fuzzy Comprehensive method and the Fuzzy Borda Number method are studied in detail. The original input data required by the evaluation system are deduced from the expert survey sheets Evaluation results with common significance of public attraction are discussed and analyzed according to the opinions of different experts grouped by age, profession and working expertise etc. The evaluation system is computer network based with high flexible and user friendly human-machine interface on which it is easy to manipulate and update the evaluation system, and to display evaluation results as well. (author)

Many faces of expertise: fusiform face area in chess experts and novices.

Science.gov (United States)

Bilalić, Merim; Langner, Robert; Ulrich, Rolf; Grodd, Wolfgang

2011-07-13

The fusiform face area (FFA) is involved in face perception to such an extent that some claim it is a brain module for faces exclusively. The other possibility is that FFA is modulated by experience in individuation in any visual domain, not only faces. Here we test this latter FFA expertise hypothesis using the game of chess as a domain of investigation. We exploited the characteristic of chess, which features multiple objects forming meaningful spatial relations. In three experiments, we show that FFA activity is related to stimulus properties and not to chess skill directly. In all chess and non-chess tasks, experts' FFA was more activated than that of novices' only when they dealt with naturalistic full-board chess positions. When common spatial relationships formed by chess objects in chess positions were randomly disturbed, FFA was again differentially active only in experts, regardless of the actual task. Our experiments show that FFA contributes to the holistic processing of domain-specific multipart stimuli in chess experts. This suggests that FFA may not only mediate human expertise in face recognition but, supporting the expertise hypothesis, may mediate the automatic holistic processing of any highly familiar multipart visual input.

Knowledge based expert system to minimise environmental pollution in Malaysian construction sites

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Al-Hadu, Ibrahiem Abdul Razak; Sidek, Lariyah Mohd; Desa, Mohamad Nor Mohamad [Civil Engineering, Universiti Tenaga Nasional, Kajang, Selangor (Malaysia); Basri, Noor Ezlin Ahmad [Civil Engineering, Universiti Tenaga Nasional, Kajang, Selangor (Malaysia)

2011-07-01

Construction activities generate enormous amount of erosion and sediments sediments that is the result of soil disturbance during construction activities, thus, will pollute the adjacent water bodies and make it unfeasible for different uses. This paper aimed to develop and create the main features of an expert system prototype (ESCES) for minimising erosion and sedimentation due to stormwater generated from the construction activities by recommending a feasible BMPs. Multi criteria Analysis (MCA) technique has been integrated so as to select the best control measure among many stormwater control alternatives. A questionnaire has been distributed to the relevant experts so as to rank the stormwater control measures to be used in the MCA technique. Using Visual Basic 6, Graphical User Interfaces (GUIs) were developed. The knowledge and experience were acquired from various textural sources (i.e. guidelines, manuals, literature, and human expert). Results from this study showed that the Best Management Practices (BMPs) reommended have good suited the site characteristics. As a conclusion from this study, the ESCES can be considered as part of the 'Green Technology Tool' since it helps in protecting the environment and preserve good quality of water adjacent to the construction sites in Malaysia.

Use of dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) for diagnosis and fracture risk assessment; WHO-criteria, T- and Z-score, and reference databases.

Science.gov (United States)

Dimai, Hans P

2017-11-01

Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) is a two-dimensional imaging technology developed to assess bone mineral density (BMD) of the entire human skeleton and also specifically of skeletal sites known to be most vulnerable to fracture. In order to simplify interpretation of BMD measurement results and allow comparability among different DXA-devices, the T-score concept was introduced. This concept involves an individual's BMD which is then compared with the mean value of a young healthy reference population, with the difference expressed as a standard deviation (SD). Since the early nineties of the past century, the diagnostic categories "normal, osteopenia, and osteoporosis", as recommended by a WHO working Group, are based on this concept. Thus, DXA is still the globally accepted "gold-standard" method for the noninvasive diagnosis of osteoporosis. Another score obtained from DXA measurement, termed Z-score, describes the number of SDs by which the BMD in an individual differs from the mean value expected for age and sex. Although not intended for diagnosis of osteoporosis in adults, it nevertheless provides information about an individual's fracture risk compared to peers. DXA measurement can either be used as a "stand-alone" means in the assessment of an individual's fracture risk, or incorporated into one of the available fracture risk assessment tools such as FRAX® or Garvan, thus improving the predictive power of such tools. The issue which reference databases should be used by DXA-device manufacturers for T-score reference standards has been recently addressed by an expert group, who recommended use National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey III (NHANES III) databases for the hip reference standard but own databases for the lumbar spine. Furthermore, in men it is recommended use female reference databases for calculation of the T-score and use male reference databases for calculation of Z-score. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Enhancing Transparency in Multidisciplinary Expert Communication

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hukki, Kristiina; Pulkkinen, Urho

2003-01-01

Faced with problems of public acceptance most nuclear waste management organisations now acknowledge the importance of transparency in their pursuit of solutions for high-level nuclear waste disposal. To make progress the implementing organizations need the trust of other stakeholders in the decision-making process. For such trust these outside stakeholders need knowledge on the grounds for the judgments and decisions made in different scientific and technical disciplines. Transparency is, however, at least as important for the multidisciplinary expert communication itself. As a matter of fact, the transparency of the internal expert interaction processes is a prerequisite for the true transparency of the communication between the implementer and the external stakeholder groups. The introduced conceptual framework has been developed for the identification of the requirements of safety-informed communication in multidisciplinary expert work in nuclear waste management. The framework offers a common thinking model and common concepts which can be utilized in the development of the communication practices. The basis of the framework is on the possibility to understand the safety-critical significance of one's work. The transparency of communication is, for its part, based on making explicit the relevant knowledge necessary for gaining the understanding. This supplementary knowledge, which is related to the substance issues but is not scientific-technical by nature, enhances the experts' awareness of the context of their own contribution and of the background of the other experts' contributions. The common conceptualization and modelling of the knowledge-related dependencies between the tasks make it possible to realize the significance of the supplementary knowledge for transparent communication in actual situations. They also facilitate the recognition of the need for different types of supplementary knowledge in the interfaces between the tasks. By enhancing mutual

Classification of health webpages as expert and non expert with a reduced set of cross-language features.

Science.gov (United States)

Grabar, Natalia; Krivine, Sonia; Jaulent, Marie-Christine

2007-10-11

Making the distinction between expert and non expert health documents can help users to select the information which is more suitable for them, according to whether they are familiar or not with medical terminology. This issue is particularly important for the information retrieval area. In our work we address this purpose through stylistic corpus analysis and the application of machine learning algorithms. Our hypothesis is that this distinction can be performed on the basis of a small number of features and that such features can be language and domain independent. The used features were acquired in source corpus (Russian language, diabetes topic) and then tested on target (French language, pneumology topic) and source corpora. These cross-language features show 90% precision and 93% recall with non expert documents in source language; and 85% precision and 74% recall with expert documents in target language.

Earthquakes and Tectonics Expert Judgment Elicitation Project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Coppersmith, K.J.; Perman, R.C.; Youngs, R.R.

1993-02-01

This report summarizes the results of the Earthquakes and Tectonics Expert Judgement Excitation Project sponsored by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI). The objectives of this study were two-fold: (1) to demonstrate methods for the excitation of expert judgement, and (2) to quantify the uncertainties associated with earthquake and tectonics issues for use in the EPRI-HLW performance assessment. Specifically, the technical issue considered is the probability of differential fault displacement through the proposed repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. For this study, a strategy for quantifying uncertainties was developed that relies on the judgements of multiple experts. A panel of seven geologists and seismologists was assembled to quantify the uncertainties associated with earthquake and tectonics issues for the performance assessment model. A series of technical workshops focusing on these issues were conducted. Finally, each expert was individually interviewed in order to elicit his judgement regarding the technical issues and to provide the technical basis for his assessment. This report summarizes the methodologies used to elicit the judgements of the earthquakes and tectonics experts (termed ''specialists''), and summarizes the technical assessments made by the expert panel

Expert judgement in performance assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wilmot, R.D.; Galson, D.A.

2000-01-01

This report is a pilot study that systematically describes the various types of expert judgement that are made throughout the development of a PA, and summarizes existing tools and practices for dealing with expert judgements. The report also includes recommendations for further work in the area of expert judgement. Expert judgements can be classified in a number of ways, including classification according to why the judgements are made and according to how the judgements are made. In terms of why judgements are made, there is a broad distinction between: Judgements concerning data that are made because alternatives are not feasible; and Judgements about the conduct of a PA that are made because there are no alternative approaches for making the decision. In the case of how judgements are made, the report distinguishes between non-elicited judgements made by individuals, non-elicited judgements made by groups, and elicited judgements made by individuals or groups. These types of judgement can generally be distinguished by the extent of the associated documentation, and hence their traceability. Tools for assessing judgements vary depending on the type of judgements being examined. Key tools are peer review, an appropriate QA regime, documentation, and elicitation. Dialogue with stake holders is also identified as important in establishing whether judgements are justified in the context in which they are used. The PA process comprises a number of stages, from establishing the assessment context, through site selection and repository design, to scenario and model development and parametrisation. The report discusses how judgements are used in each of these stages, and identifies which of the tools and procedures for assessing judgements are most appropriate at each stage. Recommendations for further work include the conduct of a trial expert elicitation to gain experience in the advantages and disadvantages of this technique, the development of guidance for peer

Expert judgement in performance assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wilmot, R.D.; Galson, D.A. [Galson Sciences Ltd, Oakham (United Kingdom)

2000-01-01

This report is a pilot study that systematically describes the various types of expert judgement that are made throughout the development of a PA, and summarizes existing tools and practices for dealing with expert judgements. The report also includes recommendations for further work in the area of expert judgement. Expert judgements can be classified in a number of ways, including classification according to why the judgements are made and according to how the judgements are made. In terms of why judgements are made, there is a broad distinction between: Judgements concerning data that are made because alternatives are not feasible; and Judgements about the conduct of a PA that are made because there are no alternative approaches for making the decision. In the case of how judgements are made, the report distinguishes between non-elicited judgements made by individuals, non-elicited judgements made by groups, and elicited judgements made by individuals or groups. These types of judgement can generally be distinguished by the extent of the associated documentation, and hence their traceability. Tools for assessing judgements vary depending on the type of judgements being examined. Key tools are peer review, an appropriate QA regime, documentation, and elicitation. Dialogue with stake holders is also identified as important in establishing whether judgements are justified in the context in which they are used. The PA process comprises a number of stages, from establishing the assessment context, through site selection and repository design, to scenario and model development and parametrisation. The report discusses how judgements are used in each of these stages, and identifies which of the tools and procedures for assessing judgements are most appropriate at each stage. Recommendations for further work include the conduct of a trial expert elicitation to gain experience in the advantages and disadvantages of this technique, the development of guidance for peer

Liquid low level waste management expert system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ferrada, J.J.; Abraham, T.J.; Jackson, J.R.

1991-01-01

An expert system has been developed as part of a new initiative for the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) systems analysis program. This expert system will aid in prioritizing radioactive waste streams for treatment and disposal by evaluating the severity and treatability of the problem, as well as the final waste form. The objectives of the expert system development included: (1) collecting information on process treatment technologies for liquid low-level waste (LLLW) that can be incorporated in the knowledge base of the expert system, and (2) producing a prototype that suggests processes and disposal technologies for the ORNL LLLW system. 4 refs., 9 figs

40 CFR 194.26 - Expert judgment.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... CFR PART 191 DISPOSAL REGULATIONS Compliance Certification and Re-certification General Requirements... experts (by name and employer) involved in any expert judgment elicitation processes used to support the... judgment elicitation processes and the reasoning behind those results. Documentation of interviews used to...

A method for using expert judgement in PSA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pulkkinen, U.; Holmberg, J.

1997-03-01

The report discusses an expert judgement methodology development for applications at all levels of probabilistic safety assessment (PSA). The main applications are expected to be at PSA-levels 1 and 2. The method consists of several phases, including the selection and training of the experts, elicitation of experts' judgements, probabilistic modeling and combination of experts' judgements and documentation of the judgement process. The expert training and elicitation process is rather similar to that applied in the NUREG-1150 study. The combination of experts judgements is based on a Bayesian framework utilizing hierarchic models. The posterior distributions of the variables under analysis can be interpreted as a Bayesian counterpart of the combined or aggregated (consensus) distributions, and they are determined by applying Markov chain Monte-Carlo methods. The properties of the method are illustrated by some simple examples. The method is tested in a case study belonging to the benchmark exercise on the use of expert judgement in level 2 PSA, organized as a concerted action of European Commission Fourth Framework Programme on Nuclear Fission Safety. (14 refs.)

The recourse to experts. Political reasons and uses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dumoulin, L.; La Branche, St.; Robert, C.; Warin, Ph.

2005-01-01

The need of reliable knowledge is necessary to draw adequate public policies. The role of experts is more and more important in any field, the expert brings his own specialized knowledge to the political world, he can define looming threads, can predict catastrophes, can highlight the long-term responsibility of particular choices but he can also contribute to the drawing of adequate solutions. The limit of expert's power lays in his ability to make a synthesis of plural knowledge. This book presents the role and weight of experts in our society from justice to economics via natural risks. A lot of examples of public policies based on expert valuation is given, in particular the recourse to experts of the European Union when it was to deal with the upgrading of nuclear safety standard in eastern countries. (A.C.)

Expert system characteristics and potential applications in safeguards

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chapman, L.D.

1986-01-01

The general growth of expert, knowledge-based (KB) or rule based systems will significantly increase in the next three to five years. Improvements in computer hardware (speed, reduced size, power) and software (rule based, data based, user interfaces) in recent years are providing the foundations for the growth of expert systems. A byproduct of this growth will undoubtedly be the application of expert systems to various safeguards problems. Characteristics of these expert systems will involve 1) multiple rules governing an outcome, 2) confidence factors on individual variables and rule sets, 3) priority, cost, and risk based rule sets, and 4) the reasoning behind the advice or decision given by the expert system. This paper presents characteristics, structures, and examples of simple rule based systems. Potential application areas for these expert systems may include training, operations, management, designs, evaluations, and specific hardware operation

A Phenomenology of Expert Musicianship

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Høffding, Simon

This dissertation develops a phenomenology of expert musicianship through an interdisciplinary approach that integrates qualitative interviews with the Danish String Quartet with philosophical analyses drawing on ideas and theses found in phenomenology, philosophy of mind, cognitive science...... and psychology of music. The dissertation is structured through the asking, analyzing and answering of three primary questions, namely: 1) What is it like to be an expert? 2) What is the general phenomenology of expert musicianship? 3) What happens to the self in deep musical absorption? The first question...... targets a central debate in philosophy and psychology on whether reflection is conducive for, or detrimental to, skillful performance. My analyses show that the concepts assumed in the literature on this question are poorly defined and gloss over more important features of expertise. The second question...

Counseling, Artificial Intelligence, and Expert Systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Illovsky, Michael E.

1994-01-01

Considers the use of artificial intelligence and expert systems in counseling. Limitations are explored; candidates for counseling versus those for expert systems are discussed; programming considerations are reviewed; and techniques for dealing with rational, nonrational, and irrational thoughts and feelings are described. (Contains 46…

Towards the VWO Annotation Service: a Success Story of the IMAGE RPI Expert Rating System

Science.gov (United States)

Reinisch, B. W.; Galkin, I. A.; Fung, S. F.; Benson, R. F.; Kozlov, A. V.; Khmyrov, G. M.; Garcia, L. N.

2010-12-01

Interpretation of Heliophysics wave data requires specialized knowledge of wave phenomena. Users of the virtual wave observatory (VWO) will greatly benefit from a data annotation service that will allow querying of data by phenomenon type, thus helping accomplish the VWO goal to make Heliophysics wave data searchable, understandable, and usable by the scientific community. Individual annotations can be sorted by phenomenon type and reduced into event lists (catalogs). However, in contrast to the event lists, annotation records allow a greater flexibility of collaborative management by more easily admitting operations of addition, revision, or deletion. They can therefore become the building blocks for an interactive Annotation Service with a suitable graphic user interface to the VWO middleware. The VWO Annotation Service vision is an interactive, collaborative sharing of domain expert knowledge with fellow scientists and students alike. An effective prototype of the VWO Annotation Service has been in operation at the University of Massachusetts Lowell since 2001. An expert rating system (ERS) was developed for annotating the IMAGE radio plasma imager (RPI) active sounding data containing 1.2 million plasmagrams. The RPI data analysts can use ERS to submit expert ratings of plasmagram features, such as presence of echo traces resulted from reflected RPI signals from distant plasma structures. Since its inception in 2001, the RPI ERS has accumulated 7351 expert plasmagram ratings in 16 phenomenon categories, together with free-text descriptions and other metadata. In addition to human expert ratings, the system holds 225,125 ratings submitted by the CORPRAL data prospecting software that employs a model of the human pre-attentive vision to select images potentially containing interesting features. The annotation records proved to be instrumental in a number of investigations where manual data exploration would have been prohibitively tedious and expensive

Analysis of the application of decontamination technologies to radioactive metal waste minimization using expert systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bayrakal, Suna [Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA (United States)

1993-09-30

Radioactive metal waste makes up a significant portion of the waste currently being sent for disposal. Recovery of this metal as a valuable resource is possible through the use of decontamination technologies. Through the development and use of expert systems a comparison can be made of laser decontamination, a technology currently under development at Ames Laboratory, with currently available decontamination technologies for applicability to the types of metal waste being generated and the effectiveness of these versus simply disposing of the waste. These technologies can be technically and economically evaluated by the use of expert systems techniques to provide a waste management decision making tool that generates, given an identified metal waste, waste management recommendations. The user enters waste characteristic information as input and the system then recommends decontamination technologies, determines residual contamination levels and possible waste management strategies, carries out a cost analysis and then ranks, according to cost, the possibilities for management of the waste. The expert system was developed using information from literature and personnel experienced in the use of decontamination technologies and requires validation by human experts and assignment of confidence factors to the knowledge represented within.

Analysis of the application of decontamination technologies to radioactive metal waste minimization using expert systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bayrakal, S.

1993-01-01

Radioactive metal waste makes up a significant portion of the waste currently being sent for disposal. Recovery of this metal as a valuable resource is possible through the use of decontamination technologies. Through the development and use of expert systems a comparison can be made of laser decontamination, a technology currently under development at Ames Laboratory, with currently available decontamination technologies for applicability to the types of metal waste being generated and the effectiveness of these versus simply disposing of the waste. These technologies can be technically and economically evaluated by the use of expert systems techniques to provide a waste management decision making tool that generates, given an identified metal waste, waste management recommendations. The user enters waste characteristic information as input and the system then recommends decontamination technologies, determines residual contamination levels and possible waste management strategies, carries out a cost analysis and then ranks, according to cost, the possibilities for management of the waste. The expert system was developed using information from literature and personnel experienced in the use of decontamination technologies and requires validation by human experts and assignment of confidence factors to the knowledge represented within

Medical Physics expert and competence in radiation protection

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vano, E.; Lamn, I. N.; Guerra, A. del; Van Kleffens, H. J.

2003-01-01

The Council Directive 97/43/EURATOM on health protection of individuals against the dangers of ionizing radiation in relation to medical exposure, defines the Medical Physical Expert as an expert in radiation physics or radiation technology applied to exposure, within the scope of the Directive, whose training and competence to act is recognized by the competent authorities; and who, as appropriate, acts or gives advice on patient dosimetry, on the development and use of complex techniques and equipment, on optimization, on quality assurance, including quality control, and on other matters relating to radiation protection, concerning exposure within the scope of this Directive. As a consequence, it might be implied that his competence in radiation protection should also cover the staff and the public. In fact, the training programmes of medical physics experts include all the aspects concerning these topics. Some confusion could arise in the medical area when the Qualified Expert defined in the Council Directive 96/29/Euratom laying down basic safety standards for the protection of the health of workers and the general public against the dangers arising from ionizing radiation is considered. The Qualified Expert is defined as a person having the knowledge and training needed to carry out physical, technical or radiochemical tests enabling doses to be assessed, and to give advice in order to ensure effective protection of individuals and the correct operation of protective equipment, whose capacity to act a qualified expert is recognized by the competent authorities. A qualified expert may be assigned the technical responsibility for the tasks of radiation protection of workers and members of the public. In Europe, the Qualified Expert is acting at present in the Medical Area in countries where there are not enough Medical Physics Experts or in countries where this role was established before the publication of the Council Directive 97/43/EURATOM. Now, the coherent

Nickel Hydrogen Battery Expert System

Science.gov (United States)

Johnson, Yvette B.; Mccall, Kurt E.

1992-01-01

The Nickel Cadmium Battery Expert System-2, or 'NICBES-2', which was used by the NASA HST six-battery testbed, was subsequently converted into the Nickel Hydrogen Battery Expert System, or 'NICHES'. Accounts are presently given of this conversion process and future uses being contemplated for NICHES. NICHES will calculate orbital summary data at the end of each orbit, and store these files for trend analyses and rules-generation.

Differences in gaze behaviour of expert and junior surgeons performing open inguinal hernia repair.

Science.gov (United States)

Tien, Tony; Pucher, Philip H; Sodergren, Mikael H; Sriskandarajah, Kumuthan; Yang, Guang-Zhong; Darzi, Ara

2015-02-01