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Sample records for hiv incidence estimates

  1. BED estimates of HIV incidence: resolving the differences, making things simpler.

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    John Hargrove

    Full Text Available Develop a simple method for optimal estimation of HIV incidence using the BED capture enzyme immunoassay.Use existing BED data to estimate mean recency duration, false recency rates and HIV incidence with reference to a fixed time period, T.Compare BED and cohort estimates of incidence referring to identical time frames. Generalize this approach to suggest a method for estimating HIV incidence from any cross-sectional survey.Follow-up and BED analyses of the same, initially HIV negative, cases followed over the same set time period T, produce estimates of the same HIV incidence, permitting the estimation of the BED mean recency period for cases who have been HIV positive for less than T. Follow-up of HIV positive cases over T, similarly, provides estimates of the false-recent rate appropriate for T. Knowledge of these two parameters for a given population allows the estimation of HIV incidence during T by applying the BED method to samples from cross-sectional surveys. An algorithm is derived for providing these estimates, adjusted for the false-recent rate. The resulting estimator is identical to one derived independently using a more formal mathematical analysis. Adjustments improve the accuracy of HIV incidence estimates. Negative incidence estimates result from the use of inappropriate estimates of the false-recent rate and/or from sampling error, not from any error in the adjustment procedure.Referring all estimates of mean recency periods, false-recent rates and incidence estimates to a fixed period T simplifies estimation procedures and allows the development of a consistent method for producing adjusted estimates of HIV incidence of improved accuracy. Unadjusted BED estimates of incidence, based on life-time recency periods, would be both extremely difficult to produce and of doubtful value.

  2. HIV Trends in the United States: Diagnoses and Estimated Incidence.

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    Hall, H Irene; Song, Ruiguang; Tang, Tian; An, Qian; Prejean, Joseph; Dietz, Patricia; Hernandez, Angela L; Green, Timothy; Harris, Norma; McCray, Eugene; Mermin, Jonathan

    2017-02-03

    The best indicator of the impact of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevention programs is the incidence of infection; however, HIV is a chronic infection and HIV diagnoses may include infections that occurred years before diagnosis. Alternative methods to estimate incidence use diagnoses, stage of disease, and laboratory assays of infection recency. Using a consistent, accurate method would allow for timely interpretation of HIV trends. The objective of our study was to assess the recent progress toward reducing HIV infections in the United States overall and among selected population segments with available incidence estimation methods. Data on cases of HIV infection reported to national surveillance for 2008-2013 were used to compare trends in HIV diagnoses, unadjusted and adjusted for reporting delay, and model-based incidence for the US population aged ≥13 years. Incidence was estimated using a biomarker for recency of infection (stratified extrapolation approach) and 2 back-calculation models (CD4 and Bayesian hierarchical models). HIV testing trends were determined from behavioral surveys for persons aged ≥18 years. Analyses were stratified by sex, race or ethnicity (black, Hispanic or Latino, and white), and transmission category (men who have sex with men, MSM). On average, HIV diagnoses decreased 4.0% per year from 48,309 in 2008 to 39,270 in 2013 (Pyear (Pyears, overall, the percentage of persons who ever had received an HIV test or had had a test within the past year remained stable; among MSM testing increased. For women, all 3 incidence models corroborated the decreasing trend in HIV diagnoses, and HIV diagnoses and 2 incidence models indicated decreases among blacks and whites. The CD4 and Bayesian hierarchical models, but not the stratified extrapolation approach, indicated decreases in incidence among MSM. HIV diagnoses and CD4 and Bayesian hierarchical model estimates indicated decreases in HIV incidence overall, among both sexes and all

  3. Estimated HIV incidence in the United States, 2006-2009.

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    Joseph Prejean

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The estimated number of new HIV infections in the United States reflects the leading edge of the epidemic. Previously, CDC estimated HIV incidence in the United States in 2006 as 56,300 (95% CI: 48,200-64,500. We updated the 2006 estimate and calculated incidence for 2007-2009 using improved methodology. METHODOLOGY: We estimated incidence using incidence surveillance data from 16 states and 2 cities and a modification of our previously described stratified extrapolation method based on a sample survey approach with multiple imputation, stratification, and extrapolation to account for missing data and heterogeneity of HIV testing behavior among population groups. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Estimated HIV incidence among persons aged 13 years and older was 48,600 (95% CI: 42,400-54,700 in 2006, 56,000 (95% CI: 49,100-62,900 in 2007, 47,800 (95% CI: 41,800-53,800 in 2008 and 48,100 (95% CI: 42,200-54,000 in 2009. From 2006 to 2009 incidence did not change significantly overall or among specific race/ethnicity or risk groups. However, there was a 21% (95% CI:1.9%-39.8%; p = 0.017 increase in incidence for people aged 13-29 years, driven by a 34% (95% CI: 8.4%-60.4% increase in young men who have sex with men (MSM. There was a 48% increase among young black/African American MSM (12.3%-83.0%; p<0.001. Among people aged 13-29, only MSM experienced significant increases in incidence, and among 13-29 year-old MSM, incidence increased significantly among young, black/African American MSM. In 2009, MSM accounted for 61% of new infections, heterosexual contact 27%, injection drug use (IDU 9%, and MSM/IDU 3%. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Overall, HIV incidence in the United States was relatively stable 2006-2009; however, among young MSM, particularly black/African American MSM, incidence increased. HIV continues to be a major public health burden, disproportionately affecting several populations in the United States, especially MSM and racial and

  4. A comparison of two measures of HIV diversity in multi-assay algorithms for HIV incidence estimation.

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    Matthew M Cousins

    Full Text Available Multi-assay algorithms (MAAs can be used to estimate HIV incidence in cross-sectional surveys. We compared the performance of two MAAs that use HIV diversity as one of four biomarkers for analysis of HIV incidence.Both MAAs included two serologic assays (LAg-Avidity assay and BioRad-Avidity assay, HIV viral load, and an HIV diversity assay. HIV diversity was quantified using either a high resolution melting (HRM diversity assay that does not require HIV sequencing (HRM score for a 239 base pair env region or sequence ambiguity (the percentage of ambiguous bases in a 1,302 base pair pol region. Samples were classified as MAA positive (likely from individuals with recent HIV infection if they met the criteria for all of the assays in the MAA. The following performance characteristics were assessed: (1 the proportion of samples classified as MAA positive as a function of duration of infection, (2 the mean window period, (3 the shadow (the time period before sample collection that is being assessed by the MAA, and (4 the accuracy of cross-sectional incidence estimates for three cohort studies.The proportion of samples classified as MAA positive as a function of duration of infection was nearly identical for the two MAAs. The mean window period was 141 days for the HRM-based MAA and 131 days for the sequence ambiguity-based MAA. The shadows for both MAAs were <1 year. Both MAAs provided cross-sectional HIV incidence estimates that were very similar to longitudinal incidence estimates based on HIV seroconversion.MAAs that include the LAg-Avidity assay, the BioRad-Avidity assay, HIV viral load, and HIV diversity can provide accurate HIV incidence estimates. Sequence ambiguity measures obtained using a commercially-available HIV genotyping system can be used as an alternative to HRM scores in MAAs for cross-sectional HIV incidence estimation.

  5. A Comparison of Two Measures of HIV Diversity in Multi-Assay Algorithms for HIV Incidence Estimation

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    Cousins, Matthew M.; Konikoff, Jacob; Sabin, Devin; Khaki, Leila; Longosz, Andrew F.; Laeyendecker, Oliver; Celum, Connie; Buchbinder, Susan P.; Seage, George R.; Kirk, Gregory D.; Moore, Richard D.; Mehta, Shruti H.; Margolick, Joseph B.; Brown, Joelle; Mayer, Kenneth H.; Kobin, Beryl A.; Wheeler, Darrell; Justman, Jessica E.; Hodder, Sally L.; Quinn, Thomas C.; Brookmeyer, Ron; Eshleman, Susan H.

    2014-01-01

    Background Multi-assay algorithms (MAAs) can be used to estimate HIV incidence in cross-sectional surveys. We compared the performance of two MAAs that use HIV diversity as one of four biomarkers for analysis of HIV incidence. Methods Both MAAs included two serologic assays (LAg-Avidity assay and BioRad-Avidity assay), HIV viral load, and an HIV diversity assay. HIV diversity was quantified using either a high resolution melting (HRM) diversity assay that does not require HIV sequencing (HRM score for a 239 base pair env region) or sequence ambiguity (the percentage of ambiguous bases in a 1,302 base pair pol region). Samples were classified as MAA positive (likely from individuals with recent HIV infection) if they met the criteria for all of the assays in the MAA. The following performance characteristics were assessed: (1) the proportion of samples classified as MAA positive as a function of duration of infection, (2) the mean window period, (3) the shadow (the time period before sample collection that is being assessed by the MAA), and (4) the accuracy of cross-sectional incidence estimates for three cohort studies. Results The proportion of samples classified as MAA positive as a function of duration of infection was nearly identical for the two MAAs. The mean window period was 141 days for the HRM-based MAA and 131 days for the sequence ambiguity-based MAA. The shadows for both MAAs were cross-sectional HIV incidence estimates that were very similar to longitudinal incidence estimates based on HIV seroconversion. Conclusions MAAs that include the LAg-Avidity assay, the BioRad-Avidity assay, HIV viral load, and HIV diversity can provide accurate HIV incidence estimates. Sequence ambiguity measures obtained using a commercially-available HIV genotyping system can be used as an alternative to HRM scores in MAAs for cross-sectional HIV incidence estimation. PMID:24968135

  6. Augmented Cross-Sectional Prevalence Testing for Estimating HIV Incidence

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    Wang, R.; Lagakos, S. W.

    2010-01-01

    Estimation of an HIV incidence rate based on a cross-sectional sample of individuals evaluated with both a sensitive and less-sensitive diagnostic test offers important advantages to incidence estimation based on a longitudinal cohort study. However, the reliability of the cross-sectional approach has been called into question because of two major concerns. One is the difficulty in obtaining a reliable external approximation for the mean “window period” between detectability of HIV infection ...

  7. Estimating incidence from prevalence in generalised HIV epidemics: methods and validation.

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    Timothy B Hallett

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available HIV surveillance of generalised epidemics in Africa primarily relies on prevalence at antenatal clinics, but estimates of incidence in the general population would be more useful. Repeated cross-sectional measures of HIV prevalence are now becoming available for general populations in many countries, and we aim to develop and validate methods that use these data to estimate HIV incidence.Two methods were developed that decompose observed changes in prevalence between two serosurveys into the contributions of new infections and mortality. Method 1 uses cohort mortality rates, and method 2 uses information on survival after infection. The performance of these two methods was assessed using simulated data from a mathematical model and actual data from three community-based cohort studies in Africa. Comparison with simulated data indicated that these methods can accurately estimates incidence rates and changes in incidence in a variety of epidemic conditions. Method 1 is simple to implement but relies on locally appropriate mortality data, whilst method 2 can make use of the same survival distribution in a wide range of scenarios. The estimates from both methods are within the 95% confidence intervals of almost all actual measurements of HIV incidence in adults and young people, and the patterns of incidence over age are correctly captured.It is possible to estimate incidence from cross-sectional prevalence data with sufficient accuracy to monitor the HIV epidemic. Although these methods will theoretically work in any context, we have able to test them only in southern and eastern Africa, where HIV epidemics are mature and generalised. The choice of method will depend on the local availability of HIV mortality data.

  8. HIV incidence in rural South Africa: comparison of estimates from longitudinal surveillance and cross-sectional cBED assay testing.

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    Till Bärnighausen

    Full Text Available The BED IgG-Capture Enzyme Immunoassay (cBED assay, a test of recent HIV infection, has been used to estimate HIV incidence in cross-sectional HIV surveys. However, there has been concern that the assay overestimates HIV incidence to an unknown extent because it falsely classifies some individuals with non-recent HIV infections as recently infected. We used data from a longitudinal HIV surveillance in rural South Africa to measure the fraction of people with non-recent HIV infection who are falsely classified as recently HIV-infected by the cBED assay (the long-term false-positive ratio (FPR and compared cBED assay-based HIV incidence estimates to longitudinally measured HIV incidence.We measured the long-term FPR in individuals with two positive HIV tests (in the HIV surveillance, 2003-2006 more than 306 days apart (sample size n = 1,065. We implemented four different formulae to calculate HIV incidence using cBED assay testing (n = 11,755 and obtained confidence intervals (CIs by directly calculating the central 95(th percentile of incidence values. We observed 4,869 individuals over 7,685 person-years for longitudinal HIV incidence estimation. The long-term FPR was 0.0169 (95% CI 0.0100-0.0266. Using this FPR, the cross-sectional cBED-based HIV incidence estimates (per 100 people per year varied between 3.03 (95% CI 2.44-3.63 and 3.19 (95% CI 2.57-3.82, depending on the incidence formula. Using a long-term FPR of 0.0560 based on previous studies, HIV incidence estimates varied between 0.65 (95% CI 0.00-1.32 and 0.71 (95% CI 0.00-1.43. The longitudinally measured HIV incidence was 3.09 per 100 people per year (95% CI 2.69-3.52, after adjustment to the sex-age distribution of the sample used in cBED assay-based estimation.In a rural community in South Africa with high HIV prevalence, the long-term FPR of the cBED assay is substantially lower than previous estimates. The cBED assay performs well in HIV incidence estimation if the locally

  9. Estimating HIV incidence among adults in Kenya and Uganda: a systematic comparison of multiple methods.

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    Andrea A Kim

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Several approaches have been used for measuring HIV incidence in large areas, yet each presents specific challenges in incidence estimation.We present a comparison of incidence estimates for Kenya and Uganda using multiple methods: 1 Epidemic Projections Package (EPP and Spectrum models fitted to HIV prevalence from antenatal clinics (ANC and national population-based surveys (NPS in Kenya (2003, 2007 and Uganda (2004/2005; 2 a survey-derived model to infer age-specific incidence between two sequential NPS; 3 an assay-derived measurement in NPS using the BED IgG capture enzyme immunoassay, adjusted for misclassification using a locally derived false-recent rate (FRR for the assay; (4 community cohorts in Uganda; (5 prevalence trends in young ANC attendees. EPP/Spectrum-derived and survey-derived modeled estimates were similar: 0.67 [uncertainty range: 0.60, 0.74] and 0.6 [confidence interval: (CI 0.4, 0.9], respectively, for Uganda (2005 and 0.72 [uncertainty range: 0.70, 0.74] and 0.7 [CI 0.3, 1.1], respectively, for Kenya (2007. Using a local FRR, assay-derived incidence estimates were 0.3 [CI 0.0, 0.9] for Uganda (2004/2005 and 0.6 [CI 0, 1.3] for Kenya (2007. Incidence trends were similar for all methods for both Uganda and Kenya.Triangulation of methods is recommended to determine best-supported estimates of incidence to guide programs. Assay-derived incidence estimates are sensitive to the level of the assay's FRR, and uncertainty around high FRRs can significantly impact the validity of the estimate. Systematic evaluations of new and existing incidence assays are needed to the study the level, distribution, and determinants of the FRR to guide whether incidence assays can produce reliable estimates of national HIV incidence.

  10. Errors in 'BED'-derived estimates of HIV incidence will vary by place, time and age.

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    Timothy B Hallett

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available The BED Capture Enzyme Immunoassay, believed to distinguish recent HIV infections, is being used to estimate HIV incidence, although an important property of the test--how specificity changes with time since infection--has not been not measured.We construct hypothetical scenarios for the performance of BED test, consistent with current knowledge, and explore how this could influence errors in BED estimates of incidence using a mathematical model of six African countries. The model is also used to determine the conditions and the sample sizes required for the BED test to reliably detect trends in HIV incidence.If the chance of misclassification by BED increases with time since infection, the overall proportion of individuals misclassified could vary widely between countries, over time, and across age-groups, in a manner determined by the historic course of the epidemic and the age-pattern of incidence. Under some circumstances, changes in BED estimates over time can approximately track actual changes in incidence, but large sample sizes (50,000+ will be required for recorded changes to be statistically significant.The relationship between BED test specificity and time since infection has not been fully measured, but, if it decreases, errors in estimates of incidence could vary by place, time and age-group. This means that post-assay adjustment procedures using parameters from different populations or at different times may not be valid. Further research is urgently needed into the properties of the BED test, and the rate of misclassification in a wide range of populations.

  11. Estimates of global HIV/AIDS mortality, prevalence and incidence rates, and their association with the Human Development Index

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    Kamyar Mansori; Erfan Ayubi; Fatemeh Khosravi Shadmani; Shiva Mansouri Hanis; Somayeh Khazaei; Mohadeseh Sani; Yousef Moradi; Salman Khazaei; Abolfazl Mohammadbeigi

    2017-01-01

    Background: HIV/AIDS is one of greatest global public health concerns today due to the high incidence, prevalence and mortality rates. The aim of this research was investigate and estimate the global HIV/AIDS mortality, prevalence and incidence rates, and explore their associations with the Human Development Index. Methods: The global age-standardized rates of mortality, prevalence and incidence of HIV/AIDS were obtained from the UNAIDS for different countries in 2015. The human developm...

  12. HIV Incidence Estimates Using the Limiting Antigen Avidity EIA Assay at Testing Sites in Kiev City, Ukraine: 2013-2014.

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    Ruth Simmons

    Full Text Available To estimate HIV incidence and highlight the characteristics of persons at greatest risk of HIV in the Ukraine capital, Kiev.Residual samples from newly-diagnosed persons attending the Kiev City AIDS Centre were tested for evidence of recent HIV infection using an avidity assay. Questions on possible risk factors for HIV acquisition and testing history were introduced. All persons (≥16yrs presenting for an HIV test April'13-March'14 were included. Rates per 100,000 population were calculated using region-specific denominators.During the study period 6370 individuals tested for HIV. Of the 467 individuals newly-diagnosed with HIV, 21 had insufficient samples for LAg testing. Of the remaining 446, 39 (8.7% were classified as recent with an avidity index <1.5ODn, 10 were reclassified as long-standing as their viral load was <1000 copies/mL, resulting in 29 (6.5% recent HIV infections. The only independent predictor for a recent infection was probable route of exposure, with MSM more likely to present with a recent infection compared with heterosexual contact [Odds Ratio 8.86; 95%CI 2.65-29.60]. We estimated HIV incidence at 21.5 per 100,000 population, corresponding to 466 new infections. Using population estimates for MSM and PWID, incidence was estimated to be between 2289.6 and 6868.7/100,000 MSM, and 350.4 for PWID.A high proportion of persons newly-infected remain undiagnosed, with MSM disproportionally affected with one in four newly-HIV-diagnosed and one in three recently-HIV-infected. Our findings should be used for targeted public health interventions and health promotion.

  13. HIV Incidence Estimates Using the Limiting Antigen Avidity EIA Assay at Testing Sites in Kiev City, Ukraine: 2013-2014.

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    Simmons, Ruth; Malyuta, Ruslan; Chentsova, Nelli; Karnets, Iryna; Murphy, Gary; Medoeva, Antonia; Kruglov, Yuri; Yurchenko, Alexander; Copas, Andrew; Porter, Kholoud

    2016-01-01

    To estimate HIV incidence and highlight the characteristics of persons at greatest risk of HIV in the Ukraine capital, Kiev. Residual samples from newly-diagnosed persons attending the Kiev City AIDS Centre were tested for evidence of recent HIV infection using an avidity assay. Questions on possible risk factors for HIV acquisition and testing history were introduced. All persons (≥16yrs) presenting for an HIV test April'13-March'14 were included. Rates per 100,000 population were calculated using region-specific denominators. During the study period 6370 individuals tested for HIV. Of the 467 individuals newly-diagnosed with HIV, 21 had insufficient samples for LAg testing. Of the remaining 446, 39 (8.7%) were classified as recent with an avidity index <1.5ODn, 10 were reclassified as long-standing as their viral load was <1000 copies/mL, resulting in 29 (6.5%) recent HIV infections. The only independent predictor for a recent infection was probable route of exposure, with MSM more likely to present with a recent infection compared with heterosexual contact [Odds Ratio 8.86; 95%CI 2.65-29.60]. We estimated HIV incidence at 21.5 per 100,000 population, corresponding to 466 new infections. Using population estimates for MSM and PWID, incidence was estimated to be between 2289.6 and 6868.7/100,000 MSM, and 350.4 for PWID. A high proportion of persons newly-infected remain undiagnosed, with MSM disproportionally affected with one in four newly-HIV-diagnosed and one in three recently-HIV-infected. Our findings should be used for targeted public health interventions and health promotion.

  14. HIV Incidence Estimates Using the Limiting Antigen Avidity EIA Assay at Testing Sites in Kiev City, Ukraine: 2013-2014

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    Kruglov, Yuri; Yurchenko, Alexander

    2016-01-01

    Objective To estimate HIV incidence and highlight the characteristics of persons at greatest risk of HIV in the Ukraine capital, Kiev. Method Residual samples from newly-diagnosed persons attending the Kiev City AIDS Centre were tested for evidence of recent HIV infection using an avidity assay. Questions on possible risk factors for HIV acquisition and testing history were introduced. All persons (≥16yrs) presenting for an HIV test April’13–March’14 were included. Rates per 100,000 population were calculated using region-specific denominators. Results During the study period 6370 individuals tested for HIV. Of the 467 individuals newly-diagnosed with HIV, 21 had insufficient samples for LAg testing. Of the remaining 446, 39 (8.7%) were classified as recent with an avidity index <1.5ODn, 10 were reclassified as long-standing as their viral load was <1000 copies/mL, resulting in 29 (6.5%) recent HIV infections. The only independent predictor for a recent infection was probable route of exposure, with MSM more likely to present with a recent infection compared with heterosexual contact [Odds Ratio 8.86; 95%CI 2.65–29.60]. We estimated HIV incidence at 21.5 per 100,000 population, corresponding to 466 new infections. Using population estimates for MSM and PWID, incidence was estimated to be between 2289.6 and 6868.7/100,000 MSM, and 350.4 for PWID. Conclusion A high proportion of persons newly-infected remain undiagnosed, with MSM disproportionally affected with one in four newly-HIV-diagnosed and one in three recently-HIV-infected. Our findings should be used for targeted public health interventions and health promotion. PMID:27276170

  15. Augmented Cross-Sectional Studies with Abbreviated Follow-up for Estimating HIV Incidence

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    Claggett, B.; Lagakos, S.W.; Wang, R.

    2011-01-01

    Cross-sectional HIV incidence estimation based on a sensitive and less-sensitive test offers great advantages over the traditional cohort study. However, its use has been limited due to concerns about the false negative rate of the less-sensitive test, reflecting the phenomenon that some subjects may remain negative permanently on the less-sensitive test. Wang and Lagakos (2010) propose an augmented cross-sectional design which provides one way to estimate the size of the infected population ...

  16. Augmented cross-sectional studies with abbreviated follow-up for estimating HIV incidence.

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    Claggett, B; Lagakos, S W; Wang, R

    2012-03-01

    Cross-sectional HIV incidence estimation based on a sensitive and less-sensitive test offers great advantages over the traditional cohort study. However, its use has been limited due to concerns about the false negative rate of the less-sensitive test, reflecting the phenomenon that some subjects may remain negative permanently on the less-sensitive test. Wang and Lagakos (2010, Biometrics 66, 864-874) propose an augmented cross-sectional design that provides one way to estimate the size of the infected population who remain negative permanently and subsequently incorporate this information in the cross-sectional incidence estimator. In an augmented cross-sectional study, subjects who test negative on the less-sensitive test in the cross-sectional survey are followed forward for transition into the nonrecent state, at which time they would test positive on the less-sensitive test. However, considerable uncertainty exists regarding the appropriate length of follow-up and the size of the infected population who remain nonreactive permanently to the less-sensitive test. In this article, we assess the impact of varying follow-up time on the resulting incidence estimators from an augmented cross-sectional study, evaluate the robustness of cross-sectional estimators to assumptions about the existence and the size of the subpopulation who will remain negative permanently, and propose a new estimator based on abbreviated follow-up time (AF). Compared to the original estimator from an augmented cross-sectional study, the AF estimator allows shorter follow-up time and does not require estimation of the mean window period, defined as the average time between detectability of HIV infection with the sensitive and less-sensitive tests. It is shown to perform well in a wide range of settings. We discuss when the AF estimator would be expected to perform well and offer design considerations for an augmented cross-sectional study with abbreviated follow-up. © 2011, The

  17. Sample size methods for estimating HIV incidence from cross-sectional surveys.

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    Konikoff, Jacob; Brookmeyer, Ron

    2015-12-01

    Understanding HIV incidence, the rate at which new infections occur in populations, is critical for tracking and surveillance of the epidemic. In this article, we derive methods for determining sample sizes for cross-sectional surveys to estimate incidence with sufficient precision. We further show how to specify sample sizes for two successive cross-sectional surveys to detect changes in incidence with adequate power. In these surveys biomarkers such as CD4 cell count, viral load, and recently developed serological assays are used to determine which individuals are in an early disease stage of infection. The total number of individuals in this stage, divided by the number of people who are uninfected, is used to approximate the incidence rate. Our methods account for uncertainty in the durations of time spent in the biomarker defined early disease stage. We find that failure to account for this uncertainty when designing surveys can lead to imprecise estimates of incidence and underpowered studies. We evaluated our sample size methods in simulations and found that they performed well in a variety of underlying epidemics. Code for implementing our methods in R is available with this article at the Biometrics website on Wiley Online Library. © 2015, The International Biometric Society.

  18. Assessment of BED HIV-1 incidence assay in seroconverter cohorts: effect of individuals with long-term infection and importance of stable incidence.

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    Janet M McNicholl

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Performance of the BED assay in estimating HIV-1 incidence has previously been evaluated by using longitudinal specimens from persons with incident HIV infections, but questions remain about its accuracy. We sought to assess its performance in three longitudinal cohorts from Thailand where HIV-1 CRF01_AE and subtype B' dominate the epidemic. DESIGN: BED testing was conducted in two longitudinal cohorts with only incident infections (a military conscript cohort and an injection drug user cohort and in one longitudinal cohort (an HIV-1 vaccine efficacy trial cohort that also included long-term infections. METHODS: Incidence estimates were generated conventionally (based on the number of annual serocoversions and by using BED test results in the three cohorts. Adjusted incidence was calculated where appropriate. RESULTS: For each longitudinal cohort the BED incidence estimates and the conventional incidence estimates were similar when only newly infected persons were tested, whether infected with CRF01_AE or subtype B'. When the analysis included persons with long-term infections (to mimic a true cross-sectional cohort, BED incidence estimates were higher, although not significantly, than the conventional incidence estimates. After adjustment, the BED incidence estimates were closer to the conventional incidence estimates. When the conventional incidence varied over time, as in the early phase of the injection drug user cohort, the difference between the two estimates increased, but not significantly. CONCLUSIONS: Evaluation of the performance of incidence assays requires the inclusion of a substantial number of cohort-derived specimens from individuals with long-term HIV infection and, ideally, the use of cohorts in which incidence remained stable. Appropriate adjustments of the BED incidence estimates generate estimates similar to those generated conventionally.

  19. Estimates of global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980–2015: the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Moesgaard Iburg, Kim

    2016-01-01

    and sex on initial CD4 distribution at infection, CD4 progression rates (probability of progression from higher to lower CD4 cell-count category), on and off antiretroviral therapy (ART) mortality, and mortality from all other causes. Our estimation strategy links the GBD 2015 assessment of all......Summary Background Timely assessment of the burden of HIV/AIDS is essential for policy setting and programme evaluation. In this report from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we provide national estimates of levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, coverage......-cause mortality and estimation of incidence and prevalence so that for each draw from the uncertainty distribution all assumptions used in each step are internally consistent. We estimated incidence, prevalence, and death with GBD versions of the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) and Spectrum software...

  20. Mean Recency Period for Estimation of HIV-1 Incidence with the BED-Capture EIA and Bio-Rad Avidity in Persons Diagnosed in the United States with Subtype B.

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    Debra L Hanson

    Full Text Available HIV incidence estimates are used to monitor HIV-1 infection in the United States. Use of laboratory biomarkers that distinguish recent from longstanding infection to quantify HIV incidence rely on having accurate knowledge of the average time that individuals spend in a transient state of recent infection between seroconversion and reaching a specified biomarker cutoff value. This paper describes five estimation procedures from two general statistical approaches, a survival time approach and an approach that fits binomial models of the probability of being classified as recently infected, as a function of time since seroconversion. We compare these procedures for estimating the mean duration of recent infection (MDRI for two biomarkers used by the U.S. National HIV Surveillance System for determination of HIV incidence, the Aware BED EIA HIV-1 incidence test (BED and the avidity-based, modified Bio-Rad HIV-1/HIV-2 plus O ELISA (BRAI assay. Collectively, 953 specimens from 220 HIV-1 subtype B seroconverters, taken from 5 cohorts, were tested with a biomarker assay. Estimates of MDRI using the non-parametric survival approach were 198.4 days (SD 13.0 for BED and 239.6 days (SD 13.9 for BRAI using cutoff values of 0.8 normalized optical density and 30%, respectively. The probability of remaining in the recent state as a function of time since seroconversion, based upon this revised statistical approach, can be applied in the calculation of annual incidence in the United States.

  1. Mean Recency Period for Estimation of HIV-1 Incidence with the BED-Capture EIA and Bio-Rad Avidity in Persons Diagnosed in the United States with Subtype B.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanson, Debra L; Song, Ruiguang; Masciotra, Silvina; Hernandez, Angela; Dobbs, Trudy L; Parekh, Bharat S; Owen, S Michele; Green, Timothy A

    2016-01-01

    HIV incidence estimates are used to monitor HIV-1 infection in the United States. Use of laboratory biomarkers that distinguish recent from longstanding infection to quantify HIV incidence rely on having accurate knowledge of the average time that individuals spend in a transient state of recent infection between seroconversion and reaching a specified biomarker cutoff value. This paper describes five estimation procedures from two general statistical approaches, a survival time approach and an approach that fits binomial models of the probability of being classified as recently infected, as a function of time since seroconversion. We compare these procedures for estimating the mean duration of recent infection (MDRI) for two biomarkers used by the U.S. National HIV Surveillance System for determination of HIV incidence, the Aware BED EIA HIV-1 incidence test (BED) and the avidity-based, modified Bio-Rad HIV-1/HIV-2 plus O ELISA (BRAI) assay. Collectively, 953 specimens from 220 HIV-1 subtype B seroconverters, taken from 5 cohorts, were tested with a biomarker assay. Estimates of MDRI using the non-parametric survival approach were 198.4 days (SD 13.0) for BED and 239.6 days (SD 13.9) for BRAI using cutoff values of 0.8 normalized optical density and 30%, respectively. The probability of remaining in the recent state as a function of time since seroconversion, based upon this revised statistical approach, can be applied in the calculation of annual incidence in the United States.

  2. HIV incidence in sub-Saharan Africa: a review of available data with implications for surveillance and prevention planning.

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    Braunstein, Sarah L; van de Wijgert, Janneke H H M; Nash, Denis

    2009-01-01

    HIV incidence estimation is increasingly being incorporated into HIV/AIDS surveillance activities in both resource-rich and developing countries. We conducted a systematic review to assess the availability of HIV incidence data from sub-Saharan Africa. We examined peer-reviewed articles, conference proceedings and technical reports published from 1987-2008. Incidence estimates were classified by country, year, population group, and estimation method (prospective study or the serologic testing algorithm for recent HIV seroconversion; STARHS). Our search yielded HIV incidence estimates for 15 of 44 sub-Saharan African countries, with 57 studies generating 264 unique estimates. Of these, 239 (91%) were obtained via prospective studies, and 25 (9%) via the STARHS method (24 using the BED-CEIA assay). Only five countries reported population-based estimates, and less than two-thirds of studies reported risk factor information. STARHS use increased over time, comprising 20% of estimates since 2006. However, studies that compared STARHS estimates with prospectively observed or modeled estimates often found substantial levels of disagreement, with STARHS often overestimating HIV incidence. Population-based HIV incidence estimates and risk factor information in sub-Saharan Africa remain scant but increasingly available. Regional STARHS data suggest a need for further validation prior to widespread use and incorporation into routine surveillance activities. In the meantime, prevalence and behavioral risk factor data remain important for HIV prevention planning.

  3. Increased incidence of cancer observed in HIV/hepatitis C virus-coinfected patients versus HIV-monoinfected.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meijide, Héctor; Pértega, Sonia; Rodríguez-Osorio, Iria; Castro-Iglesias, Ángeles; Baliñas, Josefa; Rodríguez-Martínez, Guillermo; Mena, Álvaro; Poveda, Eva

    2017-05-15

    Cancer is a growing problem in persons living with HIV infection (PLWH) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) coinfection could play an additional role in carcinogenesis. Herein, all cancers in an HIV-mono and HIV/HCV-coinfected cohort were evaluated and compared to identify any differences between these two populations. A retrospective cohort study was conducted including all cancers in PLWH between 1993 and 2014. Cancers were classified in two groups: AIDS-defining cancer (ADC) and non-AIDS-defining cancer (NADC). Cancer incidence rates were calculated and compared with that observed in the Spanish general population (GLOBOCAN, 2012), computing the standardized incidence ratios (SIRs). A competing risk approach was used to estimate the probability of cancer after HIV diagnosis. Cumulative incidence in HIV-monoinfected and HIV/HCV-coinfected patients was also compared using multivariable analysis. A total of 185 patients (117 HIV-monoinfected and 68 HIV/HCV) developed cancer in the 26 580 patient-years cohort, with an incidence rate of 696 cancers per 100 000 person-years, higher than in the general population (SIR = 3.8). The incidence rate of NADC in HIV/HCV-coinfected patients was 415.0 (SIR = 3.4), significantly higher than in monoinfected (377.3; SIR = 1.8). After adjustments, HIV/HCV-coinfected patients had a higher cumulative incidence of NADC than HIV-monoinfected (adjusted hazard ratio = 1.80), even when excluding hepatocellular carcinomas (adjusted hazard ratio = 1.26). PLWH have a higher incidence of NADC than the general population and HCV-coinfection is associated with a higher incidence of NADC. These data justify the need for prevention strategies in these two populations and the importance of eradicating HCV.

  4. Estimates of global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980-2015 : the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wang, Haidong; Wolock, Tim M.; Carter, Austin; Nguyen, Grant; Kyu, Hmwe Hmwe; Gakidou, Emmanuela; Hay, Simon I.; Mills, Edward J.; Trickey, Adam; Msemburi, William; Coates, Matthew M.; Mooney, Meghan D.; Fraser, Maya S.; Sligar, Amber; Salomon, Joshua; Larson, Heidi J.; Friedman, Joseph; Abajobir, Amanuel Alemu; Abate, Kalkidan Hassen; Abbas, Kaja M.; Abd El Razek, Mohamed Magdy; Abd-Allah, Foad; Abdulle, Abdishakur M.; Abera, Semaw Ferede; Abubakar, Ibrahim; Abu-Raddad, Laith J.; Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M. E.; Abyu, Gebre Yitayih; Adebiyi, Akindele Olupelumi; Adedeji, Isaac Akinkunmi; Adelekan, Ademola Lukman; Adofo, Koranteng; Adou, Arsene Kouablan; Ajala, Oluremi N.; Akinyemiju, Tomi F.; Akseer, Nadia; Al Lami, Faris Hasan; Al-Aly, Ziyad; Alam, Khurshid; Alam, Noore K. M.; Alasfoor, Deena; Aldhahri, Saleh Fahed S.; Aldridge, Robert William; Alegretti, Miguel Angel; Aleman, Alicia V.; Alemu, Zewdie Aderaw; Alfonso-Cristancho, Rafael; Ali, Raghib; Amare, Azmeraw T.; Hoek, Hans W.

    Background Timely assessment of the burden of HIV/AIDS is essential for policy setting and programme evaluation. In this report from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we provide national estimates of levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, coverage of antiretroviral

  5. HIV incidence in Asia: a review of available data and assessment of the epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dokubo, E Kainne; Kim, Andrea A; Le, Linh-Vi; Nadol, Patrick J; Prybylski, Dimitri; Wolfe, Mitchell I

    2013-01-01

    Rates of new HIV infections in Asia are poorly characterized, likely resulting in knowledge gaps about infection trends and the most important areas to target for interventions. We conducted a systematic review of peer-reviewed English language publications and conference abstracts on HIV incidence in thirteen countries - Bangladesh, Cambodia, China, India, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam. We obtained data on HIV incidence rate, incidence estimation method, population, and risk factors for incident infection. Our search yielded 338 unique incidence estimates from 70 published articles and 41 conference abstracts for eight countries. A total of 138 (41%) were obtained from prospective cohort studies and 106 (31%) were from antibody-based tests for recent infection. High HIV incidence rates were observed among commercial sex workers (0.4-27.8 per 100 person-years), people who inject drugs (0.0-43.6 per 100 person-years) and men who have sex with men (0.7-15.0 per 100 person-years). Risk factors for incident HIV infection include brothel-based sex work and cervicitis among commercial sex workers; young age, frequent injection use and sharing needles or syringes among people who inject drugs; multiple male sexual partners, receptive anal intercourse and syphilis infection among men who have sex with men. In the countries with available data, incidence rates were highest in key populations and varied widely by incidence estimation method. Established surveillance systems that routinely monitor trends in HIV incidence are needed to inform prevention planning, prioritize resources, measure impact, and improve the HIV response in Asia.

  6. Bootstrap confidence intervals and bias correction in the estimation of HIV incidence from surveillance data with testing for recent infection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carnegie, Nicole Bohme

    2011-04-15

    The incidence of new infections is a key measure of the status of the HIV epidemic, but accurate measurement of incidence is often constrained by limited data. Karon et al. (Statist. Med. 2008; 27:4617–4633) developed a model to estimate the incidence of HIV infection from surveillance data with biologic testing for recent infection for newly diagnosed cases. This method has been implemented by public health departments across the United States and is behind the new national incidence estimates, which are about 40 per cent higher than previous estimates. We show that the delta method approximation given for the variance of the estimator is incomplete, leading to an inflated variance estimate. This contributes to the generation of overly conservative confidence intervals, potentially obscuring important differences between populations. We demonstrate via simulation that an innovative model-based bootstrap method using the specified model for the infection and surveillance process improves confidence interval coverage and adjusts for the bias in the point estimate. Confidence interval coverage is about 94–97 per cent after correction, compared with 96–99 per cent before. The simulated bias in the estimate of incidence ranges from −6.3 to +14.6 per cent under the original model but is consistently under 1 per cent after correction by the model-based bootstrap. In an application to data from King County, Washington in 2007 we observe correction of 7.2 per cent relative bias in the incidence estimate and a 66 per cent reduction in the width of the 95 per cent confidence interval using this method. We provide open-source software to implement the method that can also be extended for alternate models.

  7. When did HIV incidence peak in Harare, Zimbabwe? Back-calculation from mortality statistics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ben Lopman

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available HIV prevalence has recently begun to decline in Zimbabwe, a result of both high levels of AIDS mortality and a reduction in incident infections. An important component in understanding the dynamics in HIV prevalence is knowledge of past trends in incidence, such as when incidence peaked and at what level. However, empirical measurements of incidence over an extended time period are not available from Zimbabwe or elsewhere in sub-Saharan Africa. Using mortality data, we use a back-calculation technique to reconstruct historic trends in incidence. From AIDS mortality data, extracted from death registration in Harare, together with an estimate of survival post-infection, HIV incidence trends were reconstructed that would give rise to the observed patterns of AIDS mortality. Models were fitted assuming three parametric forms of the incidence curve and under nine different assumptions regarding combinations of trends in non-AIDS mortality and patterns of survival post-infection with HIV. HIV prevalence was forward-projected from the fitted incidence and mortality curves. Models that constrained the incidence pattern to a cubic spline function were flexible and produced well-fitting, realistic patterns of incidence. In models assuming constant levels of non-AIDS mortality, annual incidence peaked between 4 and 5% between 1988 and 1990. Under other assumptions the peak level ranged from 3 to 8% per annum. However, scenarios assuming increasing levels of non-AIDS mortality resulted in implausibly low estimates of peak prevalence (11%, whereas models with decreasing underlying crude mortality could be consistent with the prevalence and mortality data. HIV incidence is most likely to have peaked in Harare between 1988 and 1990, which may have preceded the peak elsewhere in Zimbabwe. This finding, considered alongside the timing and location of HIV prevention activities, will give insight into the decline of HIV prevalence in Zimbabwe.

  8. Incident HIV during pregnancy and postpartum and risk of mother-to-child HIV transmission: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alison L Drake

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Women may have persistent risk of HIV acquisition during pregnancy and postpartum. Estimating risk of HIV during these periods is important to inform optimal prevention approaches. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to estimate maternal HIV incidence during pregnancy/postpartum and to compare mother-to-child HIV transmission (MTCT risk among women with incident versus chronic infection.We searched PubMed, Embase, and AIDS-related conference abstracts between January 1, 1980, and October 31, 2013, for articles and abstracts describing HIV acquisition during pregnancy/postpartum. The inclusion criterion was studies with data on recent HIV during pregnancy/postpartum. Random effects models were constructed to pool HIV incidence rates, cumulative HIV incidence, hazard ratios (HRs, or odds ratios (ORs summarizing the association between pregnancy/postpartum status and HIV incidence, and MTCT risk and rates. Overall, 1,176 studies met the search criteria, of which 78 met the inclusion criterion, and 47 contributed data. Using data from 19 cohorts representing 22,803 total person-years, the pooled HIV incidence rate during pregnancy/postpartum was 3.8/100 person-years (95% CI 3.0-4.6: 4.7/100 person-years during pregnancy and 2.9/100 person-years postpartum (p = 0.18. Pooled cumulative HIV incidence was significantly higher in African than non-African countries (3.6% versus 0.3%, respectively; p<0.001. Risk of HIV was not significantly higher among pregnant (HR 1.3, 95% CI 0.5-2.1 or postpartum women (HR 1.1, 95% CI 0.6-1.6 than among non-pregnant/non-postpartum women in five studies with available data. In African cohorts, MTCT risk was significantly higher among women with incident versus chronic HIV infection in the postpartum period (OR 2.9, 95% CI 2.2-3.9 or in pregnancy/postpartum periods combined (OR 2.3, 95% CI 1.2-4.4. However, the small number of studies limited power to detect associations and sources of heterogeneity

  9. Cancer Incidence following Expansion of HIV Treatment in Botswana.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dryden-Peterson, Scott; Medhin, Heluf; Kebabonye-Pusoentsi, Malebogo; Seage, George R; Suneja, Gita; Kayembe, Mukendi K A; Mmalane, Mompati; Rebbeck, Timothy; Rider, Jennifer R; Essex, Myron; Lockman, Shahin

    2015-01-01

    The expansion of combination antiretroviral treatment (ART) in southern Africa has dramatically reduced mortality due to AIDS-related infections, but the impact of ART on cancer incidence in the region is unknown. We sought to describe trends in cancer incidence in Botswana during implementation of the first public ART program in Africa. We included 8479 incident cases from the Botswana National Cancer Registry during a period of significant ART expansion in Botswana, 2003-2008, when ART coverage increased from 7.3% to 82.3%. We fit Poisson models of age-adjusted cancer incidence and counts in the total population, and in an inverse probability weighted population with known HIV status, over time and estimated ART coverage. During this period 61.6% of cancers were diagnosed in HIV-infected individuals and 45.4% of all cancers in men and 36.4% of all cancers in women were attributable to HIV. Age-adjusted cancer incidence decreased in the HIV infected population by 8.3% per year (95% CI -14.1 to -2.1%). However, with a progressively larger and older HIV population the annual number of cancers diagnosed remained constant (0.0% annually, 95% CI -4.3 to +4.6%). In the overall population, incidence of Kaposi's sarcoma decreased (4.6% annually, 95% CI -6.9 to -2.2), but incidence of non-Hodgkin lymphoma (+11.5% annually, 95% CI +6.3 to +17.0%) and HPV-associated cancers increased (+3.9% annually, 95% CI +1.4 to +6.5%). Age-adjusted cancer incidence among individuals without HIV increased 7.5% per year (95% CI +1.4 to +15.2%). Expansion of ART in Botswana was associated with decreased age-specific cancer risk. However, an expanding and aging population contributed to continued high numbers of incident cancers in the HIV population. Increased capacity for early detection and treatment of HIV-associated cancer needs to be a new priority for programs in Africa.

  10. Incidence of benign prostate hypertrophy in Danish men with and without HIV infection

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ahlström, Magnus Glindvad; Kronborg, Gitte; Larsen, Carsten S

    2015-01-01

    -associated risk factors influence risk of BPH diagnoses in families of HIV-infected individuals, we estimated risk of BPH in fathers of HIV-infected men and fathers of the comparison cohort. METHODS: In a nationwide, population-based, matched cohort study, we calculated incidence rates and used Poisson regression......BACKGROUND: Information on risk of benign prostate hypertrophy (BPH) in HIV-infected men is sparse. We aimed to estimate the incidence of being diagnosed with BPH among HIV-infected men compared with an age and sex-matched comparison cohort from the background population. To exclude that family...... procedure for BPH in DNHR. RESULTS: We identified 4633 HIV-infected men, 46 330 comparison cohort individuals, 1585 fathers of HIV-infected men and 20 449 fathers of the comparison cohort. Incidence rate of being diagnosed with BPH was 37.0 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 31.5-43.1] per 10 000 person...

  11. Determination of mean recency period for estimation of HIV type 1 Incidence with the BED-capture EIA in persons infected with diverse subtypes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parekh, Bharat S; Hanson, Debra L; Hargrove, John; Branson, Bernard; Green, Timothy; Dobbs, Trudy; Constantine, Niel; Overbaugh, Julie; McDougal, J Steven

    2011-03-01

    The IgG capture BED enzyme immunoassay (BED-CEIA) was developed to detect recent HIV-1 infection for the estimation of HIV-1 incidence from cross-sectional specimens. The mean time interval between seroconversion and reaching a specified assay cutoff value [referred to here as the mean recency period (ω)], an important parameter for incidence estimation, is determined for some HIV-1 subtypes, but testing in more cohorts and new statistical methods suggest the need for a revised estimation of ω in different subtypes. A total of 2927 longitudinal specimens from 756 persons with incident HIV infections who had been enrolled in 17 cohort studies was tested by the BED-CEIA. The ω was determined using two statistical approaches: (1) linear mixed effects regression (ω(1)) and (2) a nonparametric survival method (ω(2)). Recency periods varied among individuals and by population. At an OD-n cutoff of 0.8, ω(1) was 176 days (95% CL 164-188 days) whereas ω(2) was 162 days (95% CL 152-172 days) when using a comparable subset of specimens (13 cohorts). When method 2 was applied to all available data (17 cohorts), ω(2) ranged from 127 days (Thai AE) to 236 days (subtypes AG, AD) with an overall ω(2) of 197 days (95% CL 173-220). About 70% of individuals reached a threshold OD-n of 0.8 by 197 days (mean ω) and 95% of people reached 0.8 OD-n by 480 days. The determination of ω with more data and new methodology suggests that ω of the BED-CEIA varies between different subtypes and/or populations. These estimates for ω may affect incidence estimates in various studies.

  12. Incident HIV during Pregnancy and Postpartum and Risk of Mother-to-Child HIV Transmission: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drake, Alison L.; Wagner, Anjuli; Richardson, Barbra; John-Stewart, Grace

    2014-01-01

    Background Women may have persistent risk of HIV acquisition during pregnancy and postpartum. Estimating risk of HIV during these periods is important to inform optimal prevention approaches. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to estimate maternal HIV incidence during pregnancy/postpartum and to compare mother-to-child HIV transmission (MTCT) risk among women with incident versus chronic infection. Methods and Findings We searched PubMed, Embase, and AIDS-related conference abstracts between January 1, 1980, and October 31, 2013, for articles and abstracts describing HIV acquisition during pregnancy/postpartum. The inclusion criterion was studies with data on recent HIV during pregnancy/postpartum. Random effects models were constructed to pool HIV incidence rates, cumulative HIV incidence, hazard ratios (HRs), or odds ratios (ORs) summarizing the association between pregnancy/postpartum status and HIV incidence, and MTCT risk and rates. Overall, 1,176 studies met the search criteria, of which 78 met the inclusion criterion, and 47 contributed data. Using data from 19 cohorts representing 22,803 total person-years, the pooled HIV incidence rate during pregnancy/postpartum was 3.8/100 person-years (95% CI 3.0–4.6): 4.7/100 person-years during pregnancy and 2.9/100 person-years postpartum (p = 0.18). Pooled cumulative HIV incidence was significantly higher in African than non-African countries (3.6% versus 0.3%, respectively; pHIV was not significantly higher among pregnant (HR 1.3, 95% CI 0.5–2.1) or postpartum women (HR 1.1, 95% CI 0.6–1.6) than among non-pregnant/non-postpartum women in five studies with available data. In African cohorts, MTCT risk was significantly higher among women with incident versus chronic HIV infection in the postpartum period (OR 2.9, 95% CI 2.2–3.9) or in pregnancy/postpartum periods combined (OR 2.3, 95% CI 1.2–4.4). However, the small number of studies limited power to detect associations and sources of

  13. Pregnancy incidence and outcomes in women with perinatal HIV infection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byrne, Laura; Sconza, Rebecca; Foster, Caroline; Tookey, Pat A; Cortina-Borja, Mario; Thorne, Claire

    2017-07-31

    To estimate the incidence of first pregnancy in women living with perinatally acquired HIV (PHIV) in the United Kingdom and to compare pregnancy management and outcomes with age-matched women with behaviourally acquired HIV (BHIV). The National Study of HIV in Pregnancy and Childhood is a comprehensive, population-based surveillance study that collects demographic and clinical data on all pregnant women living with HIV, their children, and all HIV-infected children in the United Kingdom and Ireland. The incident rate ratio of first pregnancy was calculated for all women of reproductive age who had been reported to the National Study of HIV in Pregnancy and Childhood as vertically infected children. These women and their pregnancies were compared to age-matched pregnant women with BHIV. Of the 630 women with PHIV reported in the United Kingdom as children, 7% (45) went on to have at least one pregnancy, with 70 pregnancies reported. The incident rate ratio of first pregnancy was 13/1000 woman-years. The BHIV comparison group comprised 118 women (184 pregnancies). Women with PHIV were more likely to be on combined antiretroviral therapy at conception and have a lower baseline CD4 cell count (P pregnancy incidence, but those who become pregnant are at risk of detectable viral load near delivery, reflecting their often complex clinical history, adherence, and drug resistance issues.

  14. Mathematical modeling of HIV prevention measures including pre-exposure prophylaxis on HIV incidence in South Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Sun Bean; Yoon, Myoungho; Ku, Nam Su; Kim, Min Hyung; Song, Je Eun; Ahn, Jin Young; Jeong, Su Jin; Kim, Changsoo; Kwon, Hee-Dae; Lee, Jeehyun; Smith, Davey M; Choi, Jun Yong

    2014-01-01

    Multiple prevention measures have the possibility of impacting HIV incidence in South Korea, including early diagnosis, early treatment, and pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP). We investigated how each of these interventions could impact the local HIV epidemic, especially among men who have sex with men (MSM), who have become the major risk group in South Korea. A mathematical model was used to estimate the effects of each these interventions on the HIV epidemic in South Korea over the next 40 years, as compared to the current situation. We constructed a mathematical model of HIV infection among MSM in South Korea, dividing the MSM population into seven groups, and simulated the effects of early antiretroviral therapy (ART), early diagnosis, PrEP, and combination interventions on the incidence and prevalence of HIV infection, as compared to the current situation that would be expected without any new prevention measures. Overall, the model suggested that the most effective prevention measure would be PrEP. Even though PrEP effectiveness could be lessened by increased unsafe sex behavior, PrEP use was still more beneficial than the current situation. In the model, early diagnosis of HIV infection was also effectively decreased HIV incidence. However, early ART did not show considerable effectiveness. As expected, it would be most effective if all interventions (PrEP, early diagnosis and early treatment) were implemented together. This model suggests that PrEP and early diagnosis could be a very effective way to reduce HIV incidence in South Korea among MSM.

  15. HIV incidence in sub-Saharan Africa: a review of available data with implications for surveillance and prevention planning

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Braunstein, Sarah L.; van de Wijgert, Janneke H. H. M.; Nash, Denis

    2009-01-01

    HIV incidence estimation is increasingly being incorporated into HIV/AIDS surveillance activities in both resource-rich and developing countries. We conducted a systematic review to assess the availability of HIV incidence data from sub-Saharan Africa. We examined peer-reviewed articles, conference

  16. Circumcision status and incident herpes simplex virus type 2 infection, genital ulcer disease, and HIV infection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehta, Supriya D.; Moses, Stephen; Parker, Corette B.; Agot, Kawango; Maclean, Ian; Bailey, Robert C.

    2013-01-01

    Objective We assessed the protective effect of medical male circumcision (MMC) against HIV, herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2), and genital ulcer disease (GUD) incidence. Design Two thousand, seven hundred and eighty-seven men aged 18–24 years living in Kisumu, Kenya were randomly assigned to circumcision (n=1391) or delayed circumcision (n =1393) and assessed by HIV and HSV-2 testing and medical examinations during follow-ups at 1, 3, 6, 12, 18, and 24 months. Methods Cox regression estimated the risk ratio of each outcome (incident HIV, GUD, HSV-2) for circumcision status and multivariable models estimated HIV risk associated with HSV-2, GUD, and circumcision status as time-varying covariates. Results HIV incidence was 1.42 per 100 person-years. Circumcision was 62% protective against HIV [risk ratio =0.38; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.22–0.67] and did not change when controlling for HSV-2 and GUD (risk ratio =0.39; 95% CI 0.23–0.69). GUD incidence was halved among circumcised men (risk ratio =0.52; 95% CI 0.37–0.73). HSV-2 incidence did not differ by circumcision status (risk ratio =0.94; 95% CI 0.70–1.25). In the multivariable model, HIV seroconversions were tripled (risk ratio =3.44; 95% CI 1.52–7.80) among men with incident HSV-2 and seven times greater (risk ratio =6.98; 95% CI 3.50–13.9) for men with GUD. Conclusion Contrary to findings from the South African and Ugandan trials, the protective effect of MMC against HIV was independent of GUD and HSV-2, and MMC had no effect on HSV-2 incidence. Determining the causes of GUD is necessary to reduce associated HIV risk and to understand how circumcision confers protection against GUD and HIV PMID:22382150

  17. The Incidence Patterns Model to Estimate the Distribution of New HIV Infections in Sub-Saharan Africa: Development and Validation of a Mathematical Model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Annick Bórquez

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Programmatic planning in HIV requires estimates of the distribution of new HIV infections according to identifiable characteristics of individuals. In sub-Saharan Africa, robust routine data sources and historical epidemiological observations are available to inform and validate such estimates.We developed a predictive model, the Incidence Patterns Model (IPM, representing populations according to factors that have been demonstrated to be strongly associated with HIV acquisition risk: gender, marital/sexual activity status, geographic location, "key populations" based on risk behaviours (sex work, injecting drug use, and male-to-male sex, HIV and ART status within married or cohabiting unions, and circumcision status. The IPM estimates the distribution of new infections acquired by group based on these factors within a Bayesian framework accounting for regional prior information on demographic and epidemiological characteristics from trials or observational studies. We validated and trained the model against direct observations of HIV incidence by group in seven rounds of cohort data from four studies ("sites" conducted in Manicaland, Zimbabwe; Rakai, Uganda; Karonga, Malawi; and Kisesa, Tanzania. The IPM performed well, with the projections' credible intervals for the proportion of new infections per group overlapping the data's confidence intervals for all groups in all rounds of data. In terms of geographical distribution, the projections' credible intervals overlapped the confidence intervals for four out of seven rounds, which were used as proxies for administrative divisions in a country. We assessed model performance after internal training (within one site and external training (between sites by comparing mean posterior log-likelihoods and used the best model to estimate the distribution of HIV incidence in six countries (Gabon, Kenya, Malawi, Rwanda, Swaziland, and Zambia in the region. We subsequently inferred the potential

  18. The Incidence Patterns Model to Estimate the Distribution of New HIV Infections in Sub-Saharan Africa: Development and Validation of a Mathematical Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bórquez, Annick; Cori, Anne; Pufall, Erica L; Kasule, Jingo; Slaymaker, Emma; Price, Alison; Elmes, Jocelyn; Zaba, Basia; Crampin, Amelia C; Kagaayi, Joseph; Lutalo, Tom; Urassa, Mark; Gregson, Simon; Hallett, Timothy B

    2016-09-01

    Programmatic planning in HIV requires estimates of the distribution of new HIV infections according to identifiable characteristics of individuals. In sub-Saharan Africa, robust routine data sources and historical epidemiological observations are available to inform and validate such estimates. We developed a predictive model, the Incidence Patterns Model (IPM), representing populations according to factors that have been demonstrated to be strongly associated with HIV acquisition risk: gender, marital/sexual activity status, geographic location, "key populations" based on risk behaviours (sex work, injecting drug use, and male-to-male sex), HIV and ART status within married or cohabiting unions, and circumcision status. The IPM estimates the distribution of new infections acquired by group based on these factors within a Bayesian framework accounting for regional prior information on demographic and epidemiological characteristics from trials or observational studies. We validated and trained the model against direct observations of HIV incidence by group in seven rounds of cohort data from four studies ("sites") conducted in Manicaland, Zimbabwe; Rakai, Uganda; Karonga, Malawi; and Kisesa, Tanzania. The IPM performed well, with the projections' credible intervals for the proportion of new infections per group overlapping the data's confidence intervals for all groups in all rounds of data. In terms of geographical distribution, the projections' credible intervals overlapped the confidence intervals for four out of seven rounds, which were used as proxies for administrative divisions in a country. We assessed model performance after internal training (within one site) and external training (between sites) by comparing mean posterior log-likelihoods and used the best model to estimate the distribution of HIV incidence in six countries (Gabon, Kenya, Malawi, Rwanda, Swaziland, and Zambia) in the region. We subsequently inferred the potential contribution of each

  19. Prevalence, incidence and determinants of herpes simplex virus type 2 infection among HIV-seronegative women at high-risk of HIV infection: a prospective study in Beira, Mozambique

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meque, Ivete; Dubé, Karine; Feldblum, Paul J.; Clements, Archie C. A.; Zango, Arlinda; Cumbe, Fidelina; Chen, Pai Lien; Ferro, Josefo J.; van de Wijgert, Janneke H.

    2014-01-01

    To estimate the prevalence, incidence and determinants of herpes simplex type 2 (HSV-2) infection, and associations between HSV-2 and incident HIV infection, among women at higher risk for HIV infection in Beira, Mozambique. Between 2009 and 2012, 411 women aged 18-35 years at higher risk of HIV

  20. Prevalence, Incidence, and Residual Risks for Transfusion Transmitted HIV-1/2 Infection among Chinese Blood Donors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jingxing; Liu, Jing; Yao, Fuzhu; Wen, Guoxin; Li, Julin; Huang, Yi; Lv, Yunlai; Wen, Xiuqiong; Wright, David; Yu, Qilu; Guo, Nan; Ness, Paul; Shan, Hua

    2012-01-01

    Background There is little data on HIV prevalence, incidence or residual risks for transfusion transmitted HIV infection among Chinese blood donors. Methods Donations from five Chinese blood centers in 2008–2010 were screened using two rounds of ELISA testing for anti-HIV-1/2. A reactive result in either or both rounds led to Western Blot confirmatory testing. HIV prevalence and demographic correlates among first time donors, incidence rate and demographic correlates among repeat donors were examined. Weighted multivariable logistic regression analysis examined correlates of HIV confirmatory status among first time donors. Residual risks for transfusion transmitted HIV infection were evaluated based on incidence among repeat donors. Results Among 821,320 donations, 40% came from repeat donors.1,837 (0.34%) first time and 577 (0.17%) repeat donations screened reactive for anti-HIV-1/2, among which 1,310 and 419 were tested by Western Blot. 233 (17.7%) first time and 44 (10.5%) repeat donations were confirmed positive. Estimated prevalence was 66 infections per 100,000 (95% CI: 59–74) first time donors. Estimated incidence was 9/100,000 (95% CI: 7–12) person-years among repeat donors. Weighted multivariable logistic regression analysis indicate that first time donors 26–45 years old were 1.6–1.8 times likely to be HIV positive than those 25 years and younger. Donors with some college or above education were less likely to be HIV positive than those with middle school education, ORs ranging from 0.35 to 0.60. Minority were 1.6 times likely to be HIV positive than Han majority donors (OR: 1.6; CI: 1.2–2.1). No difference in prevalence was found between gender. Current HIV TTI residual risk was 5.4 (1.2–12.5) infections per million whole blood donations. Conclusion Despite the declining HIV epidemic China, estimated residual risks for transfusion transmitted HIV infection are still high, highlighting the potential blood safety yield of NAT implementation

  1. Estimating cardiovascular disease incidence from prevalence: a spreadsheet based model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xue Feng Hu

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Disease incidence and prevalence are both core indicators of population health. Incidence is generally not as readily accessible as prevalence. Cohort studies and electronic health record systems are two major way to estimate disease incidence. The former is time-consuming and expensive; the latter is not available in most developing countries. Alternatively, mathematical models could be used to estimate disease incidence from prevalence. Methods We proposed and validated a method to estimate the age-standardized incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD, with prevalence data from successive surveys and mortality data from empirical studies. Hallett’s method designed for estimating HIV infections in Africa was modified to estimate the incidence of myocardial infarction (MI in the U.S. population and incidence of heart disease in the Canadian population. Results Model-derived estimates were in close agreement with observed incidence from cohort studies and population surveillance systems. This method correctly captured the trend in incidence given sufficient waves of cross-sectional surveys. The estimated MI declining rate in the U.S. population was in accordance with the literature. This method was superior to closed cohort, in terms of the estimating trend of population cardiovascular disease incidence. Conclusion It is possible to estimate CVD incidence accurately at the population level from cross-sectional prevalence data. This method has the potential to be used for age- and sex- specific incidence estimates, or to be expanded to other chronic conditions.

  2. Sustained progress, but no room for complacency: Results of 2015 HIV estimations in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pandey, Arvind; Dhingra, Neeraj; Kumar, Pradeep; Sahu, Damodar; Reddy, D.C.S.; Narayan, Padum; Raj, Yujwal; Sangal, Bhavna; Chandra, Nalini; Nair, Saritha; Singh, Jitenkumar; Chavan, Laxmikant; Srivastava, Deepika Joshi; Jha, Ugra Mohan; Verma, Vinita; Kant, Shashi; Bhattacharya, Madhulekha; Swain, Pushpanjali; Haldar, Partha; Singh, Lucky; Bakkali, Taoufik; Stover, John; Ammassari, Savina

    2017-01-01

    Background & objectives: Evidence-based planning has been the cornerstone of India's response to HIV/AIDS. Here we describe the process, method and tools used for generating the 2015 HIV estimates and provide a summary of the main results. Methods: Spectrum software supported by the UNAIDS was used to produce HIV estimates for India as a whole and its States/Union Territories. This tool takes into consideration the size and HIV prevalence of defined population groups and programme data to estimate HIV prevalence, incidence and mortality over time as well as treatment needs. Results: India's national adult prevalence of HIV was 0.26 per cent in 2015. Of the 2.1 million people living with HIV/AIDS, the largest numbers were in Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra and Karnataka. New HIV infections were an estimated 86,000 in 2015, reflecting a decline by around 32 per cent from 2007. The declining trend in incidence was mirrored in most States, though an increasing trend was detected in Assam, Chandigarh, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, Sikkim, Tripura and Uttar Pradesh. AIDS-related deaths were estimated to be 67,600 in 2015, reflecting a 54 per cent decline from 2007. There were variations in the rate and trend of decline across India for this indicator also. Interpretation & conclusions: While key indicators measured through Spectrum modelling confirm success of the National AIDS Control Programme, there is no room for complacency as rising incidence trends in some geographical areas and population pockets remain the cause of concern. Progress achieved so far in responding to HIV/AIDS needs to be sustained to end the HIV epidemic. PMID:29168464

  3. Estimating PMTCT's Impact on Heterosexual HIV Transmission: A Mathematical Modeling Analysis.

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    Aditya S Khanna

    Full Text Available Prevention of mother-to-child HIV transmission (PMTCT strategies include combined short-course antiretrovirals during pregnancy (Option A, triple-drug antiretroviral treament (ART during pregnancy and breastfeeding (Option B, or lifelong ART (Option B+. The WHO also recommends ART for HIV treatment and prevention of sexual transmission of HIV. The impact of PMTCT strategies on prevention of sexual HIV transmission of HIV is not known. We estimated the population-level impact of PMTCT interventions on heterosexual HIV transmission in southwestern Uganda and KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, two regions with different HIV prevalence and fertility rates.We constructed and validated dynamic, stochastic, network-based HIV transmission models for each region. PMTCT Options A, B, and B+ were simulated over ten years under three scenarios: 1 current ART and PMTCT coverage, 2 current ART and high PMTCT coverage, and 3 high ART and PMTCT coverage. We compared adult HIV incidence after ten years of each intervention to Option A (and current ART at current coverage.At current coverage, Options B and B+ reduced heterosexual HIV incidence by about 5% and 15%, respectively, in both countries. With current ART and high PMTCT coverage, Option B+ reduced HIV incidence by 35% in Uganda and 19% in South Africa, while Option B had smaller, but meaningful, reductions. The greatest reductions in HIV incidence were achieved with high ART and PMTCT coverage. In this scenario, all PMTCT strategies yielded similar results.Implementation of Options B/B+ reduces adult HIV incidence, with greater effect (relative to Option A at current levels in Uganda than South Africa. These results are likely driven by Uganda's higher fertility rates.

  4. HIV Incidence and Predictors of Incident HIV among Men Who Have Sex with Men Attending a Sexual Health Clinic in Melbourne, Australia.

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    King T Cheung

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to determine the risk factors for HIV infection and the incidence in men who have sex with men (MSM. It is important to identify subgroups of MSM in which preventive interventions such as pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP offered at the time of their last negative test would be considered cost-effective.We conducted a retrospective cohort study of MSM attending Melbourne Sexual Health Centre (MSHC during 2007-2013 with at least two HIV tests within 12 months of each other. Demographic characteristics, sexual and other behaviours, and bacterial sexually transmitted infection (STI diagnoses were extracted from the date of the last negative HIV test. HIV incidence rate (IR per 100 person-years for each risk factor was calculated.Of the 13907 MSM who attended MSHC, 5256 MSM had at least two HIV tests and were eligible, contributing 6391 person-years follow-up. 81 new HIV diagnoses were identified within 12 months of an HIV negative test with an incidence of 1.3 (95% CI: 1.0-1.6 per 100 person-years. Significant associations with subsequent HIV infection were: rectal gonorrhea (HIV IR: 3.4 95% CI: 2.1-5.2, rectal chlamydia (HIV IR: 2.6 95% CI: 1.7-3.7, inconsistent condom use (HIV IR: 2.1 95% CI: 1.6-2.7, use of post-exposure prophylaxis (HIV IR: 2.3 95% CI: 1.7-3.1, and injecting drug use (HIV IR: 8.5 95% CI: 3.4-17.5.The incidence of HIV was above 2.0% in subgroups of MSM with specific characteristics at the last HIV negative test. PrEP is considered cost effective at this incidence and could potentially be used along with other preventive interventions for these individuals in more than half of the population.

  5. A scoping review of prevalence, incidence and risk factors for HIV infection amongst young people in Brazil.

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    Saffier, Igor Pedrosa; Kawa, Hélia; Harling, Guy

    2017-10-11

    Despite young people being a key population for HIV prevention, the HIV epidemic amongst young Brazilians is perceived to be growing. We therefore reviewed all published literature on HIV prevalence and risk factors for HIV infection amongst 10-25 year olds in Brazil. We searched Embase, LILACS, Proquest, PsycINFO, PubMed, Scopus and Web of Science for studies published up to March 2017 and analyzed reference lists of relevant studies. We included published studies from any time in the HIV epidemic which provided estimates specific to ages 10-25 (or some subset of this age range) for Brazilians on either: (a) HIV prevalence or incidence; or (b) the association between HIV and socio-demographic or behavioral risk factors. Forty eight publications met the inclusion criteria: 44 cross-sectional, two case-control, two cohort. Four studies analysed national data. Forty seven studies provided HIV prevalence estimates, largely for six population subgroups: Counselling and Testing Center attendees; blood donors; pregnant women; institutional individuals; men-who-have-sex-with-men (MSM) and female sex workers (FSW); four provided HIV incidence estimates. Twelve studies showed HIV status to be associated with a wide range of risk factors, including age, sexual and reproductive history, infection history, substance use, geography, marital status, mental health and socioeconomic status. Few published studies have examined HIV amongst young people in Brazil, and those published have been largely cross-sectional and focused on traditional risk groups and the south of the country. Despite these limitations, the literature shows raised HIV prevalence amongst MSM and FSW, as well as amongst those using drugs. Time trends are harder to identify, although rates appear to be falling for pregnant women, possibly reversing an earlier de-masculinization of the epidemic. Improved surveillance of HIV incidence, prevalence and risk factors is a key component of efforts to eliminate HIV in

  6. Incidence and Residual Risk of HIV, HBV and HCV Infections Among Blood Donors in Tehran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saber, Hamid Reza; Tabatabaee, Seyed Morteza; Abasian, Ali; Jamali, Mostafa; SalekMoghadam, Ebadollah; Hajibeigi, Bashir; Alavian, Seyed Moayed; Mirrezaie, Seyed Mohammad

    2017-09-01

    Estimation of residual risk is essential to monitor and improve blood safety. Our epidemiologic knowledge in the Iranian donor population regarding transfusion transmitted viral infections (TTIs), is confined to a few studies based on prevalence rate. There are no reports on residual risk of TTIs in Iran. In present survey, a software database of donor records of Tehran Blood Transfusion Center (TBTC) was used to estimate the incidence and residual risk of hepatitis B virus (HBV), hepatitis C virus (HCV) and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infections, by applying the incidence rate/window period (IR-WP) model. A total of 1,207,155 repeat donations was included in the analysis and represented a mean of 8.4 donations per donor over 6 years. The incidence amongst repeat donors was estimated by dividing the number of confirmed seroconverting donors by the total number of person-years at risk. The residual risk was calculated using the incidence/window period model. Incidence rate and residual risk for HBV, HCV and HIV infections were calculated for total (2005-2010) and two consecutive periods (2005-2007 and 2008-2010) of the study. According to the IR-WP model, overall residual risk for HIV and HCV in the total study period was 0.4 and 12.5 per million units, respectively and for HBV 4.57/100,000 donations. The incidence and residual risk of TTIs, calculated on TBTC's blood supply was low and comparable with developed countries for HIV infection but high for HCV and HBV infections. Blood safety may therefore be better managed by applying other techniques like nucleic acid amplification tests.

  7. Predictors of pregnancy and changes in pregnancy incidence among HIV-positive women accessing HIV clinical care at 13 large UK clinics

    Science.gov (United States)

    HUNTINGTON, Susie E; THORNE, Claire; BANSI, Loveleen K; ANDERSON, Jane; NEWELL, Marie-Louise; TAYLOR, Graham P; PILLAY, Deenan; HILL, Teresa; TOOKEY, Pat A; SABIN, Caroline A

    2012-01-01

    Objectives To describe predictors of pregnancy and changes in pregnancy incidence among HIV-positive women accessing HIV clinical care. Methods Data were obtained through the linkage of two separate studies; the UK Collaborative HIV Cohort study (UK CHIC), a cohort of adults attending 13 large HIV clinics, and the National Study of HIV in Pregnancy and Childhood (NSHPC), a national surveillance study of HIV-positive pregnant women. Pregnancy incidence was measured using the proportion of women in UK CHIC with a pregnancy reported to NSHPC. Generalised estimating equations were used to identify predictors of pregnancy and assess changes in pregnancy incidence in 2000-2009. Results The number of women accessing care at UK CHIC sites increased as did the number of pregnancies (from 72 to 230). Older women were less likely to have a pregnancy (adjusted Relative Rate (aRR) 0.44 per 10 year increment in age [95% CI [0.41-0.46], ppregnancy increased over the study period (aRR 1.05 [1.03-1.07], ppregnancy rate among women accessing HIV clinical care increased in 2000-2009. HIV-positive women with, or planning, a pregnancy require a high level of care and this is likely to continue and increase as more women of older age have pregnancies. PMID:22713479

  8. Individual and Population Level Impact of Key HIV Risk Factors on HIV Incidence Rates in Durban, South Africa.

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    Gita Ramjee

    Full Text Available We aimed to estimate the individual and joint impact of age, marital status and diagnosis with sexually transmitted infections (STIs on HIV acquisition among young women at a population level in Durban, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. A total of 3,978 HIV seronegative women were recruited for four biomedical intervention trials from 2002-2009. Point and interval estimates of partial population attributable risk (PAR were used to quantify the proportion of HIV seroconversions which can be prevented if a combination of risk factors is eliminated from a target population. More than 70% of the observed HIV acquisitions were collectively attributed to the three risk factors: younger age (<25 years old, unmarried and not cohabiting with a stable/regular partner and diagnosis with STIs. Addressing these risks requires targeted structural, behavioural, biomedical and cultural interventions in order to impact on unacceptably high HIV incidence rates among young women and the population as a whole.

  9. Incident pregnancy and pregnancy outcomes among HIV-infected women in Uganda and Zimbabwe.

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    Lancaster, Kathryn E; Kwok, Cynthia; Rinaldi, Anne; Byamugisha, Josaphat; Magwali, Tulani; Nyamapfeni, Prisca; Salata, Robert A; Morrison, Charles S

    2015-12-01

    To describe pregnancy outcomes among HIV-infected women and examine factors associated with live birth among those receiving and not receiving combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). The present analysis included women with HIV from Uganda and Zimbabwe who participated in a prospective cohort study during 2001-2009. Incident pregnancies and pregnancy outcomes were recorded quarterly. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to estimate incident pregnancy probabilities; factors associated with live birth were evaluated by Poisson regression with generalized estimating equations. Among 306 HIV-infected women, there were 160 incident pregnancies (10.1 per 100 women-years). The pregnancy rate was higher among cART-naïve women than among those receiving cART (10.7 vs 5.5 per 100 women-years; P=0.047), and it was higher in Uganda than in Zimbabwe (14.4 vs 7.7 per 100 women-years; Ppregnancy (relative risk 0.8; 95% confidence interval 0.7-1.0). Women not receiving cART have higher pregnancy rates than do those receiving cART, but cART use might not affect the risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes. Timely prenatal care and monitoring of illnesses during pregnancy should be incorporated into treatment services for HIV-infected women. Copyright © 2015 International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Estimating HIV Incidence during Pregnancy and Knowledge of Prevention of Mother-to-Child Transmission with an Ad Hoc Analysis of Potential Cofactors

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    Thomas Obinchemti Egbe

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. We determined the incidence of HIV seroconversion during the second and third trimesters of pregnancy and ad hoc potential cofactors associated with HIV seroconversion after having an HIV-negative result antenatally. We also studied knowledge of PMTCT among pregnant women in seven health facilities in Fako Division, South West Region, Cameroon. Method. During the period between September 12 and December 4, 2011, we recruited a cohort of 477 HIV-negative pregnant women by cluster sampling. Data collection was with a pretested interviewer-administered questionnaire. Sociodemographic information, knowledge of PMTCT, and methods of HIV prevention were obtained from the study population and we did Voluntary Counselling and Testing (VCT for HIV. Results. The incidence rate of HIV seroconversion during pregnancy was 6.8/100 woman-years. Ninety percent of the participants did not use condoms throughout pregnancy but had a good knowledge of PMTCT of HIV. Only 31.9% of participants knew their HIV status before the booking visit and 33% did not know the HIV status of their partners. Conclusion. The incidence rate of HIV seroconversion in the Fako Division, Cameroon, was 6.8/100 woman-years. No risk factors associated with HIV seroconversion were identified among the study participants because of lack of power to do so.

  11. Estimating HIV Incidence during Pregnancy and Knowledge of Prevention of Mother-to-Child Transmission with an Ad Hoc Analysis of Potential Cofactors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Egbe, Thomas Obinchemti; Tazinya, Rose-Mary Asong; Halle-Ekane, Gregory Edie; Egbe, Eta-Nkongho; Achidi, Eric Akum

    2016-01-01

    We determined the incidence of HIV seroconversion during the second and third trimesters of pregnancy and ad hoc potential cofactors associated with HIV seroconversion after having an HIV-negative result antenatally. We also studied knowledge of PMTCT among pregnant women in seven health facilities in Fako Division, South West Region, Cameroon. During the period between September 12 and December 4, 2011, we recruited a cohort of 477 HIV-negative pregnant women by cluster sampling. Data collection was with a pretested interviewer-administered questionnaire. Sociodemographic information, knowledge of PMTCT, and methods of HIV prevention were obtained from the study population and we did Voluntary Counselling and Testing (VCT) for HIV. The incidence rate of HIV seroconversion during pregnancy was 6.8/100 woman-years. Ninety percent of the participants did not use condoms throughout pregnancy but had a good knowledge of PMTCT of HIV. Only 31.9% of participants knew their HIV status before the booking visit and 33% did not know the HIV status of their partners. The incidence rate of HIV seroconversion in the Fako Division, Cameroon, was 6.8/100 woman-years. No risk factors associated with HIV seroconversion were identified among the study participants because of lack of power to do so.

  12. A Bayesian hierarchical model with novel prior specifications for estimating HIV testing rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    An, Qian; Kang, Jian; Song, Ruiguang; Hall, H Irene

    2016-04-30

    Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection is a severe infectious disease actively spreading globally, and acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) is an advanced stage of HIV infection. The HIV testing rate, that is, the probability that an AIDS-free HIV infected person seeks a test for HIV during a particular time interval, given no previous positive test has been obtained prior to the start of the time, is an important parameter for public health. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian hierarchical model with two levels of hierarchy to estimate the HIV testing rate using annual AIDS and AIDS-free HIV diagnoses data. At level one, we model the latent number of HIV infections for each year using a Poisson distribution with the intensity parameter representing the HIV incidence rate. At level two, the annual numbers of AIDS and AIDS-free HIV diagnosed cases and all undiagnosed cases stratified by the HIV infections at different years are modeled using a multinomial distribution with parameters including the HIV testing rate. We propose a new class of priors for the HIV incidence rate and HIV testing rate taking into account the temporal dependence of these parameters to improve the estimation accuracy. We develop an efficient posterior computation algorithm based on the adaptive rejection metropolis sampling technique. We demonstrate our model using simulation studies and the analysis of the national HIV surveillance data in the USA. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  13. Creating an African HIV clinical research and prevention trials network: HIV prevalence, incidence and transmission.

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    Anatoli Kamali

    Full Text Available HIV epidemiology informs prevention trial design and program planning. Nine clinical research centers (CRC in sub-Saharan Africa conducted HIV observational epidemiology studies in populations at risk for HIV infection as part of an HIV prevention and vaccine trial network. Annual HIV incidence ranged from below 2% to above 10% and varied by CRC and risk group, with rates above 5% observed in Zambian men in an HIV-discordant relationship, Ugandan men from Lake Victoria fishing communities, men who have sex with men, and several cohorts of women. HIV incidence tended to fall after the first three months in the study and over calendar time. Among suspected transmission pairs, 28% of HIV infections were not from the reported partner. Volunteers with high incidence were successfully identified and enrolled into large scale cohort studies. Over a quarter of new cases in couples acquired infection from persons other than the suspected transmitting partner.

  14. Creating an African HIV Clinical Research and Prevention Trials Network: HIV Prevalence, Incidence and Transmission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamali, Anatoli; Price, Matt A.; Lakhi, Shabir; Karita, Etienne; Inambao, Mubiana; Sanders, Eduard J.; Anzala, Omu; Latka, Mary H.; Bekker, Linda-Gail; Kaleebu, Pontiano; Asiki, Gershim; Ssetaala, Ali; Ruzagira, Eugene; Allen, Susan; Farmer, Paul; Hunter, Eric; Mutua, Gaudensia; Makkan, Heeran; Tichacek, Amanda; Brill, Ilene K.; Fast, Pat; Stevens, Gwynn; Chetty, Paramesh; Amornkul, Pauli N.; Gilmour, Jill

    2015-01-01

    HIV epidemiology informs prevention trial design and program planning. Nine clinical research centers (CRC) in sub-Saharan Africa conducted HIV observational epidemiology studies in populations at risk for HIV infection as part of an HIV prevention and vaccine trial network. Annual HIV incidence ranged from below 2% to above 10% and varied by CRC and risk group, with rates above 5% observed in Zambian men in an HIV-discordant relationship, Ugandan men from Lake Victoria fishing communities, men who have sex with men, and several cohorts of women. HIV incidence tended to fall after the first three months in the study and over calendar time. Among suspected transmission pairs, 28% of HIV infections were not from the reported partner. Volunteers with high incidence were successfully identified and enrolled into large scale cohort studies. Over a quarter of new cases in couples acquired infection from persons other than the suspected transmitting partner. PMID:25602351

  15. Interaction between HIV Awareness, Knowledge, Safe Sex Practice and HIV Incidence: Evidence from Botswana

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    Ranjan Ray; Kompal Sinha

    2011-01-01

    This paper makes methodological and empirical contributions to the study of HIV awareness, knowledge, incidence and safe sex practice in the context of Botswana, one of the most HIV prone countries in the world. While the focus is on Botswana, the paper presents comparable evidence from India to put the Botswana results in perspective. The results point to the strong role played by affluence and education in increasing HIV knowledge, promoting safe sex and reducing HIV incidence. The study pr...

  16. Risk Factor Detection as a Metric of STARHS Performance for HIV Incidence Surveillance Among Female Sex Workers in Kigali, Rwanda

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Braunstein, Sarah L.; van de Wijgert, Janneke H.; Vyankandondera, Joseph; Kestelyn, Evelyne; Ntirushwa, Justin; Nash, Denis

    2012-01-01

    The epidemiologic utility of STARHS hinges not only on producing accurate estimates of HIV incidence, but also on identifying risk factors for recent HIV infection. As part of an HIV seroincidence study, 800 Rwandan female sex workers (FSW) were HIV tested, with those testing positive further tested

  17. Incidence, risk factors and mortality of tuberculosis in Danish HIV patients 1995-2007

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    Andersen Aase B

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV infection predisposes to tuberculosis (TB. We described incidence, risk factors and prognosis of TB in HIV-1 infected patients during pre (1995-1996, early (1997-1999, and late Highly Active Antiretroviral Therapy (HAART (2000-2007 periods. Methods We included patients from a population-based, multicenter, nationwide cohort. We calculated incidence rates (IRs and mortality rates (MRs. Cox's regression analysis was used to estimate risk factors for TB infection with HAART initiation included as time updated variable. Kaplan-Meier was used to estimate mortality after TB. Results Among 2,668 patients identified, 120 patients developed TB during the follow-up period. The overall IR was 8.2 cases of TB/1,000 person-years of follow-up (PYR. IRs decreased during the pre-, early and late-HAART periods (37.1/1000 PYR, 12.9/1000 PYR and 6.5/1000 PYR respectively. African and Asian origin, low CD4 cell count and heterosexual and injection drug user route of HIV transmission were risk factors for TB and start of HAART reduced the risk substantially. The overall MR in TB patients was 34.4 deaths per 1,000 PYR (95% Confidence Interval: 22.0-54.0 and was highest in the first two years after the diagnosis of TB. Conclusions Incidence of TB still associated with conventional risk factors as country of birth, low CD4 count and route of HIV infection while HAART reduces the risk substantially. The mortality in this patient population is high in the first two years after TB diagnosis.

  18. National South African HIV prevalence estimates robust despite substantial test non-participation

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    Guy Harling

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Background. South African (SA national HIV seroprevalence estimates are of crucial policy relevance in the country, and for the worldwide HIV response. However, the most recent nationally representative HIV test survey in 2012 had 22% test non-participation, leaving the potential for substantial bias in current seroprevalence estimates, even after controlling for selection on observed factors. Objective. To re-estimate national HIV prevalence in SA, controlling for bias due to selection on both observed and unobserved factors in the 2012 SA National HIV Prevalence, Incidence and Behaviour Survey. Methods. We jointly estimated regression models for consent to test and HIV status in a Heckman-type bivariate probit framework. As selection variable, we used assigned interviewer identity, a variable known to predict consent but highly unlikely to be associated with interviewees’ HIV status. From these models, we estimated the HIV status of interviewed participants who did not test. Results. Of 26 710 interviewed participants who were invited to test for HIV, 21.3% of females and 24.3% of males declined. Interviewer identity was strongly correlated with consent to test for HIV; declining a test was weakly associated with HIV serostatus. Our HIV prevalence estimates were not significantly different from those using standard methods to control for bias due to selection on observed factors: 15.1% (95% confidence interval (CI 12.1 - 18.6 v. 14.5% (95% CI 12.8 - 16.3 for 15 - 49-year-old males; 23.3% (95% CI 21.7 - 25.8 v. 23.2% (95% CI 21.3 - 25.1 for 15 - 49-year-old females. Conclusion. The most recent SA HIV prevalence estimates are robust under the strongest available test for selection bias due to missing data. Our findings support the reliability of inferences drawn from such data.

  19. Issues in cervical cancer incidence and treatment in HIV.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Einstein, Mark H; Phaëton, Rébécca

    2010-09-01

    Cervical disease burden continues to be especially high in HIV-infected women, even in the era of effective antiretroviral medications. This review discusses the multiple issues surrounding HIV-associated cervical cancer. Also, the unique treatment-related issues in HIV-associated cervical cancer are addressed. The incidence of invasive cervical cancer has remained stable in industrialized nations; however, it is only estimated in developing countries secondary to a relative lack of data collection and registries. Trends in HIV-associated cervical cancer have changed in the highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) era. Recent molecular pathways suggest that the natural progression of human papillomavirus infection, the causal agent in all cervical cancers, may be related to immune system dysfunction as well as HIV/human papillomavirus synergistic mechanisms. When highly active retroviral therapies are used, invasive cervical cancer treatments are impacted by concomitant drug toxicities that could potentially limit therapeutic benefit of either HAART or the standard of care treatment for locally advanced cervical cancer, concomitant chemoradiotherapy. The significance and care of the patient with invasive cervical cancer is becoming a geographically relevant phenomenon such that it may be time to re-address the global definition. Further studies in treatment issues and drug-drug interactions with cervical cancer treatments in the setting of HIV are paramount.

  20. Incidence and risk factors of herpes zoster among hiv-positive patients in the german competence network for HIV/AIDS (KompNet): a cohort study analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jansen, Klaus; Haastert, Burkhard; Michalik, Claudia; Guignard, Adrienne; Esser, Stefan; Dupke, Stephan; Plettenberg, Andreas; Skaletz-Rorowski, Adriane; Brockmeyer, Norbert H

    2013-08-10

    HIV infection is a risk factor for the development of Herpes zoster (HZ) and its complications. Prior to antiretroviral therapy (ART), HZ incidence in HIV-infected individuals ranged from 2.9-5.1/100 person-years. There is limited evidence for the impact of ART on HZ occurrence among HIV-infected adults. We analysed the incidence of, and risk factors for, HZ in a large cohort of German HIV-positive patients. The study population was taken from the German KompNet cohort, a nationwide multicenter HIV cohort study. The study population was defined by age (≥ 18 years), year of first positive HIV diagnosis, CD4 values ± 6 months from HIV diagnosis (t0), and month of HZ diagnosis. Incidences were estimated using a Poisson distribution, and uni- and multivariate Cox proportional Hazard ratio (HR) regression models were fitted to identify risk factors for developing an initial HZ episode. Independent variables were sex, age at HIV diagnosis, route of HIV transmission, ART status, CD4 count before HZ episode, immunosuppressive medication, and mode of data documentation (retrospective or prospective). HZ incidence in the overall study population was 1.2/100 person-years. In a subset of patients for that we were able to examine risk factors the following was observed: We examined 3,757 individuals whose mean age at t0 was 38 years. Of those individuals, 96% were diagnosed with HIV in 1996 or later, with a mean observation time of 5.8 years. HZ episodes (n = 362) were recorded in 326 patients (8.7%), resulting in annual HZ incidences of 1.7/100 person-years overall, and 1.6/100 person-years for initial HZ cases. The main risk factors associated with an initial HZ episode were: not partaking in ART compared with an ART regimen containing a non-nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitor (HR 0.530, p study HZ incidences were lower than in previous studies relating to HIV-positive patients. We showed that ART is an important protective factor for HZ episodes.

  1. Brief Report: Impact of Early Antiretroviral Therapy on the Performance of HIV Rapid Tests and HIV Incidence Assays.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fogel, Jessica M; Piwowar-Manning, Estelle; Debevec, Barbara; Walsky, Tamara; Schlusser, Katherine; Laeyendecker, Oliver; Wilson, Ethan A; McCauley, Marybeth; Gamble, Theresa; Tegha, Gerald; Soko, Dean; Kumwenda, Johnstone; Hosseinipour, Mina C; Chen, Ying Q; Cohen, Myron S; Eshleman, Susan H

    2017-08-01

    Antiretroviral therapy (ART) can downregulate antibody responses to HIV infection. We evaluated the impact of early vs. delayed ART on the performance of HIV diagnostic and incidence assays. Samples were obtained from 207 participants in the HPTN 052 trial, who were stably suppressed on ART for ≥4 years [Malawi sites; pre-ART CD4 cell count 350-550 cells/mm (early ART arm, N = 180) or ART arm, N = 27)]. Samples were tested with 2 HIV rapid tests and 2 HIV incidence assays; selected samples were also tested with two fourth-generation immunoassays and a Western blot (WB) assay. A pre-ART sample was analyzed if the follow-up sample had a false-negative or weakly-reactive rapid test result, or had an incidence assay result indicative of recent infection (false-recent result). Ten (4.8%) samples had a nonreactive or weakly-reactive rapid test result (7/180 early ART arm, 3/27 delayed ART arm, P = 0.13); one sample had nonreactive fourth-generation assay results and 3 had indeterminate WBs. Forty (18.9%) samples had a false-recent incidence assay result; 16 (7.8%) had false-recent results with both incidence assays. Baseline samples had stronger rapid test and WB bands, higher fourth-generation assay signal-to-cutoff values, and fewer HIV incidence assay results indicative of recent infection. False-negative/weakly-reactive HIV rapid tests and false-recent HIV incidence assay results were observed in virally-suppressed individuals, regardless of pre-ART CD4 cell count. Downregulation of the antibody response to HIV infection in the setting of ART may impact population-level surveys of HIV prevalence and incidence.

  2. Early antiretroviral therapy and potent second-line drugs could decrease HIV incidence of drug resistance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Mingwang; Xiao, Yanni; Rong, Libin; Meyers, Lauren Ancel; Bellan, Steven E

    2017-06-28

    Early initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) reduces the risk of drug-sensitive HIV transmission but may increase the transmission of drug-resistant HIV. We used a mathematical model to estimate the long-term population-level benefits of ART and determine the scenarios under which earlier ART (treatment at 1 year post-infection, on average) could decrease simultaneously both total and drug-resistant HIV incidence (new infections). We constructed an infection-age-structured mathematical model that tracked the transmission rates over the course of infection and modelled the patients' life expectancy as a function of ART initiation timing. We fitted this model to the annual AIDS incidence and death data directly, and to resistance data and demographic data indirectly among men who have sex with men (MSM) in San Francisco. Using counterfactual scenarios, we assessed the impact on total and drug-resistant HIV incidence of ART initiation timing, frequency of acquired drug resistance, and second-line drug effectiveness (defined as the combination of resistance monitoring, biomedical drug efficacy and adherence). Earlier ART initiation could decrease the number of both total and drug-resistant HIV incidence when second-line drug effectiveness is sufficiently high (greater than 80%), but increase the proportion of new infections that are drug resistant. Thus, resistance may paradoxically appear to be increasing while actually decreasing. © 2017 The Author(s).

  3. Pregnancy incidence and intention after HIV diagnosis among women living with HIV in Canada.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kate Salters

    Full Text Available Pregnancy incidence rates among women living with HIV (WLWH have increased over time due to longer life expectancy, improved health status, and improved access to and HIV prevention benefits of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART. However, it is unclear whether intended or unintended pregnancies are contributing to observed increases.We analyzed retrospective data from the Canadian HIV Women's Sexual and Reproductive Health Cohort Study (CHIWOS. Kaplan-Meier methods and GEE Poisson models were used to measure cumulative incidence and incidence rate of pregnancy after HIV diagnosis overall, and by pregnancy intention. We used multivariable logistic regression models to examine independent correlates of unintended pregnancy among the most recent/current pregnancy.Of 1,165 WLWH included in this analysis, 278 (23.9% women reported 492 pregnancies after HIV diagnosis, 60.8% of which were unintended. Unintended pregnancy incidence (24.6 per 1,000 Women-Years (WYs; 95% CI: 21.0, 28.7 was higher than intended pregnancy incidence (16.6 per 1,000 WYs; 95% CI: 13.8, 20.1 (Rate Ratio: 1.5, 95% CI: 1.2-1.8. Pregnancy incidence among WLWH who initiated cART before or during pregnancy (29.1 per 1000 WYs with 95% CI: 25.1, 33.8 was higher than among WLWH not on cART during pregnancy (11.9 per 1000 WYs; 95% CI: 9.5, 14.9 (Rate Ratio: 2.4, 95% CI: 2.0-3.0. Women with current or recent unintended pregnancy (vs. intended pregnancy had higher adjusted odds of being single (AOR: 1.94; 95% CI: 1.10, 3.42, younger at time of conception (AOR: 0.95 per year increase, 95% CI: 0.90, 0.99, and being born in Canada (AOR: 2.76, 95% CI: 1.55, 4.92.Nearly one-quarter of women reported pregnancy after HIV diagnosis, with 61% of all pregnancies reported as unintended. Integrated HIV and reproductive health care programming is required to better support WLWH to optimize pregnancy planning and outcomes and to prevent unintended pregnancy.

  4. Pregnancy incidence and intention after HIV diagnosis among women living with HIV in Canada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salters, Kate; Loutfy, Mona; de Pokomandy, Alexandra; Money, Deborah; Pick, Neora; Wang, Lu; Jabbari, Shahab; Carter, Allison; Webster, Kath; Conway, Tracey; Dubuc, Daniele; O'Brien, Nadia; Proulx-Boucher, Karene; Kaida, Angela

    2017-01-01

    Pregnancy incidence rates among women living with HIV (WLWH) have increased over time due to longer life expectancy, improved health status, and improved access to and HIV prevention benefits of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). However, it is unclear whether intended or unintended pregnancies are contributing to observed increases. We analyzed retrospective data from the Canadian HIV Women's Sexual and Reproductive Health Cohort Study (CHIWOS). Kaplan-Meier methods and GEE Poisson models were used to measure cumulative incidence and incidence rate of pregnancy after HIV diagnosis overall, and by pregnancy intention. We used multivariable logistic regression models to examine independent correlates of unintended pregnancy among the most recent/current pregnancy. Of 1,165 WLWH included in this analysis, 278 (23.9%) women reported 492 pregnancies after HIV diagnosis, 60.8% of which were unintended. Unintended pregnancy incidence (24.6 per 1,000 Women-Years (WYs); 95% CI: 21.0, 28.7) was higher than intended pregnancy incidence (16.6 per 1,000 WYs; 95% CI: 13.8, 20.1) (Rate Ratio: 1.5, 95% CI: 1.2-1.8). Pregnancy incidence among WLWH who initiated cART before or during pregnancy (29.1 per 1000 WYs with 95% CI: 25.1, 33.8) was higher than among WLWH not on cART during pregnancy (11.9 per 1000 WYs; 95% CI: 9.5, 14.9) (Rate Ratio: 2.4, 95% CI: 2.0-3.0). Women with current or recent unintended pregnancy (vs. intended pregnancy) had higher adjusted odds of being single (AOR: 1.94; 95% CI: 1.10, 3.42), younger at time of conception (AOR: 0.95 per year increase, 95% CI: 0.90, 0.99), and being born in Canada (AOR: 2.76, 95% CI: 1.55, 4.92). Nearly one-quarter of women reported pregnancy after HIV diagnosis, with 61% of all pregnancies reported as unintended. Integrated HIV and reproductive health care programming is required to better support WLWH to optimize pregnancy planning and outcomes and to prevent unintended pregnancy.

  5. HIV incidence from the first population-based cohort study in India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dandona, Lalit; Kumar, G Anil; Lakshmi, Vemu; Ahmed, G Md Mushtaq; Akbar, Mohammed; Ramgopal, Sri P; Sudha, Talasila; Alary, Michel; Dandona, Rakhi

    2013-07-17

    Understanding about who acquires new HIV infection and the determinants of why some persons get infected and others do not is fundamental to controlling HIV in the population. We assess HIV incidence and its associations in the population of a high HIV burden district in Andhra Pradesh state in southern India by a population-based longitudinal cohort study. We re-surveyed a population-based cohort of 12,617 adults in Guntur district of Andhra Pradesh for which we had reported a baseline HIV prevalence of 1.72% (rural 1.64%, urban 1.89%) among the 15-49 years age group in 2004-2005. We conducted interviews to assess risk behaviour and performed HIV testing again in 2010-2011. We assessed the rate of new HIV infection and its associations using multiple logistic regression. The participation rate in the follow-up was 74.9% and 63.9% of the baseline rural and urban samples, respectively. Over a mean follow-up of 5.63 years, the incidence of HIV was 1.26 per 1000 person-years (95% CI 0.83-1.69), after adjusting for slight compositional bias in the follow-up sample. The incidence per 1000 person-years was higher among rural men (1.68) than urban men (0.85), and among rural women (1.28) than urban women (0.54). The strongest association with incidence was a HIV positive spouse in the baseline for both men (odds ratio 266, 95% CI 62-1137) and women (odds ratio 28, 95% CI 9-88). Among men the other significant associations with HIV incidence were frequent use of condom for sex over the past 6 months, non-circumcision, more than one lifetime woman sex partner or ever visited sex worker, and transport-related occupation; for women the other significant associations were having had HIV testing other than antenatal check-up, previously married but currently not, and tobacco use. These first population-based cohort incidence data from India suggest that rural areas of high HIV burden states would need more attention to prevent new HIV infections, and that spouses of HIV

  6. Short communication: HIV incidence among vulnerable populations in Honduras: results from an integrated behavioral and biological survey among female sex workers, men who have sex with men, and Garifuna in Honduras, 2006.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Andrea A; Morales, Sonia; Lorenzana de Rivera, Ivette; Paredes, Mayte; Juarez, Sandra; Alvarez, Berta; Liu, Xin; Parekh, Bharat; Monterroso, Edgar; Paz-Bailey, Gabriela

    2013-03-01

    Honduras has one of the highest HIV prevalence rates in Central America. Data on HIV incidence are needed to identify groups at greatest need of prevention interventions to inform the national HIV response. We applied a test for recent infection to HIV-positive specimens from a biological and behavioral survey to estimate assay-derived incidence among men who have sex with men (MSM), female sex workers (FSW), and the Garifuna population in Honduras. Assay-derived estimates were compared to the mathematically modeled estimates in the same populations to assess plausibility of the assay-based estimates. Assay-derived incidence was 1.1% (95% CI 0.2-2.0) among MSM, 0.4% (95% CI 0.1-0.8) among the Garifuna, and 0% (95% CI 0-0.01) among FSWs. The modeled incidence estimates were similar at 1.03% among MSM, 0.30% among the Garifuna, and 0.23% among FSWs. HIV incidence based on the assay was highest among MSM in Honduras, lowest among FSWs, and similar to modeled incidence in these groups. Targeted programs on HIV prevention, care, and treatment are urgently needed for the MSM population. Continued support for existing prevention programs for FSWs and Garifuna are recommended.

  7. High HIV incidence among young black men who have sex with men: constructing a retrospective cohort from a community health programme.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedman, M Reuel; Feliz, Nayck B; Netto, Jess; Adams, Brian J; Matthews, Derrick D; Stall, Ron D; Ho, Ken S; Krier, Sarah E; Silvestre, Anthony J

    2018-06-01

    We sought to calculate HIV incidence in a retrospective cohort of young (13-29 years old) black men who have sex with men (YBMSM) accessing repeated HIV-antibody testing in a mid-size city in the USA. We aggregated site-specific HIV-antibody testing results from the project's inception among YBMSM who received an initial negative result and accessed at least one additional HIV-antibody test. From these data, we assessed number of seroconversions and person-years and calculated HIV incidence using a mid-P exact test to estimate 95% CIs. Five seroconversions were documented over 42.3 person-years (the mean age at first onsite test: 19.7 years), resulting in an HIV incidence rate of 11.8% (95% CI 4.3% to 26.2%). The mean age at seroconversion was 20.4 (±3.0) years. Even in mid-size cities with low HIV prevalence rates in the general population, HIV incidence among YBMSM may be high. Community-based HIV-antibody testing organisations serving YBMSM should be encouraged and trained to track repeated HIV testing and calculate HIV incidence rates. Increased resources should be deployed to develop and encourage regular HIV testing in community health sites serving YBMSM. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

  8. Incidence and timing of cancer in HIV-infected individuals following initiation of combination antiretroviral therapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yanik, Elizabeth L; Napravnik, Sonia; Cole, Stephen R; Achenbach, Chad J; Gopal, Satish; Olshan, Andrew; Dittmer, Dirk P; Kitahata, Mari M; Mugavero, Michael J; Saag, Michael; Moore, Richard D; Mayer, Kenneth; Mathews, W Christopher; Hunt, Peter W; Rodriguez, Benigno; Eron, Joseph J

    2013-09-01

    Cancer is an important cause of morbidity and mortality in individuals infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), but patterns of cancer incidence after combination antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation remain poorly characterized. We evaluated the incidence and timing of cancer diagnoses among patients initiating ART between 1996 and 2011 in a collaboration of 8 US clinical HIV cohorts. Poisson regression was used to estimate incidence rates. Cox regression was used to identify demographic and clinical characteristics associated with cancer incidence after ART initiation. At initiation of first combination ART among 11 485 patients, median year was 2004 (interquartile range [IQR], 2000-2007) and median CD4 count was 202 cells/mm(3) (IQR, 61-338). Incidence rates for Kaposi sarcoma (KS) and lymphomas were highest in the first 6 months after ART initiation (P cancers combined increased from 416 to 615 cases per 100 000 person-years from 1 to 10 years after ART initiation (average 7% increase per year; 95% confidence interval, 2%-13%). Lower CD4 count at ART initiation was associated with greater risk of KS, lymphoma, and human papillomavirus-related cancer. Calendar year of ART initiation was not associated with cancer incidence. KS and lymphoma rates were highest immediately following ART initiation, particularly among patients with low CD4 cell counts, whereas other cancers increased with time on ART, likely reflecting increased cancer risk with aging. Our results underscore recommendations for earlier HIV diagnosis followed by prompt ART initiation along with ongoing aggressive cancer screening and prevention efforts throughout the course of HIV care.

  9. Incidence of cervical dysplasia and cervical cancer in women living with HIV in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorsteinsson, Kristina; Ladelund, Steen; Jensen-Fangel, Søren

    2014-01-01

    and hazard ratios (HRs) for time from inclusion to first cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN)/ICC and time from first normal cervical cytology to first CIN/ICC were estimated. Sensitivity analyses were performed to include prior screening outcome, screening intensity and treatment of CIN......INTRODUCTION: Women living with HIV (WLWH) are reportedly at increased risk of invasive cervical cancer (ICC). WLWH in Denmark attend the National ICC screening program less often than women in the general population. We aimed to estimate the incidence of cervical dysplasia and ICC in WLWH...... with normal baseline cytology, incidences of CIN1+ and CIN2+ were higher in WLWH. However, incidences were comparable between WLWH and controls adherent to the National ICC screening program. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, WLWH develop more cervical disease than controls. However, incidences of CIN are comparable...

  10. Incident HSV-2 Infections Are Common Among HIV-1-discordant Couples

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muiru, Anthony N.; Guthrie, Brandon L.; Bosire, Rose; Merkel, Michele; Liu, Amy Y.; Choi, Robert Y.; Lohman-Payne, Barbara; Gatuguta, Ann; Mackelprang, Romel D.; Kiarie, James N.; Farquhar, Carey

    2013-01-01

    Background. The synergy between herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) and human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) is well known, but lack of knowledge about the epidemiology of HSV-2 acquisition in HIV-1-discordant couples hampers development of HSV-2 prevention interventions that could reduce HIV-1 transmission. Methods. HIV-1-discordant couples were enrolled in Nairobi, Kenya, and followed for up to 2 years. HSV-2 status was determined using HerpeSelect HSV-2 ELISA. Correlates of prevalence and incidence were assessed. Results. Of 469 HIV-1-discordant couples, at baseline, 353 (75.3%) were affected by HSV-2, of which 189 (53.5%) were concordantly HSV-2 seropositive and 164 (46.5%) were HSV-2-discordant. Prevalence was lowest among HIV-1-uninfected men (39.9%) compared to HIV-1-infected women (64.8%), HIV-1-infected men (66.7%), and HIV-1-uninfected women (68.5%). During follow-up, HSV-2 seroincidence was 14.9 per 100 person-years. Incidence was 1.6-fold higher among females compared to males (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.00–2.48) and 2.5-fold higher in HIV-1-infected compared to uninfected women (95% CI, 1.12–5.74). At least 30% of incident HSV-2 infections originated from an outside partner. Conclusions. The high HSV-2 prevalence and incidence in HIV-1-discordant couples in sub-Saharan Africa suggest HSV-2 treatment and prevention could be an effective targeted strategy to reduce HSV-2 and HIV-1 transmission in this high-risk population. PMID:23840044

  11. Potential impact on HIV incidence of higher HIV testing rates and earlier antiretroviral therapy initiation in MSM

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Phillips, Andrew N; Cambiano, Valentina; Miners, Alec

    2015-01-01

    count 350/μl. We investigated what would be required to reduce HIV incidence in MSM to below 1 per 1000 person-years (i.e. cost-effective. METHODS: A dynamic, individual-based simulation model was calibrated to multiple data sources...... with viral suppression to 80%, and it would be 90%, if ART is initiated at diagnosis. The scenarios required for such a policy to be cost-effective are presented. CONCLUSION: This analysis provides targets for the proportion of all HIV-positive MSM with viral suppression required to achieve substantial......BACKGROUND: Increased rates of testing, with early antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation, represent a key potential HIV-prevention approach. Currently, in MSM in the United Kingdom, it is estimated that 36% are diagnosed by 1 year from infection, and the ART initiation threshold is at CD4 cell...

  12. Changes in HIV incidence among people who inject drugs in Taiwan following introduction of a harm reduction program: a study of two cohorts.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yen-Fang Huang

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Harm reduction strategies for combating HIV epidemics among people who inject drugs (PWID have been implemented in several countries. However, large-scale studies using sensitive measurements of HIV incidence and intervention exposures in defined cohorts are rare. The aim of this study was to determine the association between harm reduction programs and HIV incidence among PWID.The study included two populations. For 3,851 PWID who entered prison between 2004 and 2010 and tested HIV positive upon incarceration, we tested their sera using a BED HIV-1 capture enzyme immunoassay to estimate HIV incidence. Also, we enrolled in a prospective study a cohort of 4,357 individuals who were released from prison via an amnesty on July 16, 2007. We followed them with interviews at intervals of 6-12 mo and by linking several databases. A total of 2,473 participants who were HIV negative in January 2006 had interviews between then and 2010 to evaluate the association between use of harm reduction programs and HIV incidence. We used survival methods with attendance at methadone clinics as a time-varying covariate to measure the association with HIV incidence. We used a Poisson regression model and calculated the HIV incidence rate to evaluate the association between needle/syringe program use and HIV incidence. Among the population of PWID who were imprisoned, the implementation of comprehensive harm reduction programs and a lower mean community HIV viral load were associated with a reduced HIV incidence among PWID. The HIV incidence in this population of PWID decreased from 18.2% in 2005 to 0.3% in 2010. In an individual-level analysis of the amnesty cohort, attendance at methadone clinics was associated with a significantly lower HIV incidence (adjusted hazard ratio: 0.20, 95% CI: 0.06-0.67, and frequent users of needle/syringe program services had lower HIV incidence (0% in high NSP users, 0.5% in non NSP users. In addition, no HIV seroconversions were

  13. Incidence and Risk Factors for Incident Syphilis among HIV-1-Infected Men Who Have Sex with Men in a Large Urban HIV Clinic in Tokyo, 2008−2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nishijima, Takeshi; Teruya, Katsuji; Shibata, Satoshi; Yanagawa, Yasuaki; Kobayashi, Taiichiro; Mizushima, Daisuke; Aoki, Takahiro; Kinai, Ei; Yazaki, Hirohisa; Tsukada, Kunihisa; Genka, Ikumi; Kikuchi, Yoshimi; Oka, Shinichi; Gatanaga, Hiroyuki

    2016-01-01

    Background The epidemiology of incident syphilis infection among HIV-1-infected men who have sex with men (MSM) largely remains unknown. Methods The incidence and risk factors for incident syphilis (positive TPHA and RPR> = 1:8) among HIV-1-infected MSM who visited a large HIV clinic in Tokyo for the first time between 2008 and 2013 were determined, using clinical data and stored blood samples taken every three months for screening and determination of the date of incident syphilis. Poisson regression compared the incidence of syphilis at different observation periods. Results Of 885 HIV-1-infected MSM with baseline data, 34% either presented with active syphilis at baseline (21%) or became infected with syphilis during follow-up (13%). After excluding 214 patients (MSM with syphilis at baseline (n = 190) and no follow-up syphilis test (n = 24)), of 671 men, 112 (17%) developed incident syphilis with an incidence of 43.7/1,000 person-years [95% CI, 36.5–52.3]. The incidence decreased slightly during observation period although the trend was not significant (2008–2009: 48.2/1,000 person-years, 2010–2011: 51.1/1,000 person-years, 2012–2013: 42.6/1,000 person-years, 2014 to 2015: 37.9/1,000 person-years, p = 0.315). Multivariable analysis identified young age (40, HR 4.0, 95%CI 2.22–7.18, psyphilis at baseline (HR 3.0, 95%CI 2.03–4.47, psyphilis. Incidence of syphilis was particularly high among young patients (age syphilis were asymptomatic. Conclusions Although incidence of syphilis did not increase during the observation period, it was high among HIV-1-infected MSM, especially among young HIV-1-infected MSM and those with history of syphilis, in Tokyo. Regular screening for syphilis needs to be strictly applied to this population. PMID:27992604

  14. Incidence, clinical presentation, and outcome of HIV-1-associated cryptococcal meningitis during the highly active antiretroviral therapy era

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Touma, Madeleine; Rasmussen, Line D.; Martin-Iguacel, Raquel

    2017-01-01

    : A nationwide, population-based cohort of HIV-infected individuals was used to estimate incidence and mortality of CM including risk factors. A description of neurological symptoms of CM at presentation and follow-up in the study period 1995-2014 was included in this study. RESULTS: Among 6,351 HIV......BACKGROUND: Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection with advanced immunosuppression predisposes to cryptococcal meningitis (CM). We describe the incidence, clinical presentation, and outcome of CM in HIV-infected individuals during the highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) era. METHODS...... was associated with increased risk of CM [IRR, 2.05 (95% CI, 1.00-4.20)]. The main signs and symptoms at presentation were headache, cognitive deficits, fever, neck stiffness, nausea, and vomiting. All individuals diagnosed with CM had a CD4(+) cell count

  15. Incidence, clinical presentation, and outcome of HIV-1-associated cryptococcal meningitis during the highly active antiretroviral therapy era

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Touma, Madeleine; Rasmussen, Line D.; Martin-Iguacel, Raquel

    2017-01-01

    Background: Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection with advanced immunosup-pression predisposes to cryptococcal meningitis (CM). We describe the incidence, clinical presentation, and outcome of CM in HIV-infected individuals during the highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) era. Methods......: A nationwide, population-based cohort of HIV-infected individuals was used to estimate incidence and mortality of CM including risk factors. A description of neurological symptoms of CM at presentation and follow-up in the study period 1995–2014 was included in this study. Results: Among 6,351 HIV...... was associated with increased risk of CM [IRR, 2.05 (95% CI, 1.00–4.20)]. The main signs and symptoms at presentation were headache, cognitive deficits, fever, neck stiffness, nausea, and vomiting. All individuals diagnosed with CM had a CD4 + cell count

  16. Incidence of chemotherapy-induced neutropenia in HIV-infected and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    show an increased incidence of breast cancer among HIV-infected ... on CIN in patients with breast cancer and HIV infection are scarce, ...... Crawford J. Pegfilgrastim for the prevention of chemotherapy-induced neutropenic complications, with.

  17. Incidence of cervical dysplasia and cervical cancer in women living with HIV in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorsteinsson, K; Ladelund, Steen; Jensen-Fangel, S

    2016-01-01

    , which contains nationwide records of all pathology specimens. The cumulative incidence and hazard ratios (HRs) for time from inclusion to first cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN)/ICC and time from first normal cervical cytology result to first CIN/ICC were estimated. Sensitivity analyses were......OBJECTIVES: Women living with HIV (WLWH) are reportedly at increased risk of invasive cervical cancer (ICC). A recent publication found that WLWH in Denmark attend the national ICC screening programme less often than women in the general population. We aimed to estimate the incidence of cervical...... in both groups were adherent to the national ICC screening programme and had a normal baseline cytology, incidences of CIN and ICC were comparable. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, WLWH developed more cervical disease than controls. Yet, in WLWH and controls adherent to the national ICC screening programme...

  18. Controlling HIV Epidemics among Injection Drug Users: Eight Years of Cross-Border HIV Prevention Interventions in Vietnam and China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hammett, Theodore M.; Des Jarlais, Don C.; Kling, Ryan; Kieu, Binh Thanh; McNicholl, Janet M.; Wasinrapee, Punneeporn; McDougal, J. Stephen; Liu, Wei; Chen, Yi; Meng, Donghua; Huu Nguyen, Tho; Ngoc Hoang, Quyen; Van Hoang, Tren

    2012-01-01

    Introduction HIV in Vietnam and Southern China is driven by injection drug use. We have implemented HIV prevention interventions for IDUs since 2002–2003 in Lang Son and Ha Giang Provinces, Vietnam and Ning Ming County (Guangxi), China. Methods Interventions provide peer education and needle/syringe distribution. Evaluation employed serial cross-sectional surveys of IDUs 26 waves from 2002 to 2011, including interviews and HIV testing. Outcomes were HIV risk behaviors, HIV prevalence and incidence. HIV incidence estimation used two methods: 1) among new injectors from prevalence data; and 2) a capture enzyme immunoassay (BED testing) on all HIV+ samples. Results We found significant declines in drug-related risk behaviors and sharp reductions in HIV prevalence among IDUs (Lang Son from 46% to 23% [pHIV incidence to low levels among new injectors through 36–48 months, then some rebound, particularly in Ning Ming, but BED-based estimates revealed significant reductions in incidence through 96 months. Discussion This is one of the longest studies of HIV prevention among IDUs in Asia. The rebound in incidence among new injectors may reflect sexual transmission. BED-based estimates may overstate incidence (because of false-recent results in patients with long-term infection or on ARV treatment) but adjustment for false-recent results and survey responses on duration of infection generally confirm BED-based incidence trends. Combined trends from the two estimation methods show sharp declines in incidence to low levels. The significant downward trends in all primary outcome measures indicate that the Cross-Border interventions played an important role in bringing HIV epidemics among IDUs under control. The Cross-Border project offers a model of HIV prevention for IDUs that should be considered for large-scale replication. PMID:22952640

  19. HIV treatment as prevention: systematic comparison of mathematical models of the potential impact of antiretroviral therapy on HIV incidence in South Africa.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeffrey W Eaton

    Full Text Available Many mathematical models have investigated the impact of expanding access to antiretroviral therapy (ART on new HIV infections. Comparing results and conclusions across models is challenging because models have addressed slightly different questions and have reported different outcome metrics. This study compares the predictions of several mathematical models simulating the same ART intervention programmes to determine the extent to which models agree about the epidemiological impact of expanded ART.Twelve independent mathematical models evaluated a set of standardised ART intervention scenarios in South Africa and reported a common set of outputs. Intervention scenarios systematically varied the CD4 count threshold for treatment eligibility, access to treatment, and programme retention. For a scenario in which 80% of HIV-infected individuals start treatment on average 1 y after their CD4 count drops below 350 cells/µl and 85% remain on treatment after 3 y, the models projected that HIV incidence would be 35% to 54% lower 8 y after the introduction of ART, compared to a counterfactual scenario in which there is no ART. More variation existed in the estimated long-term (38 y reductions in incidence. The impact of optimistic interventions including immediate ART initiation varied widely across models, maintaining substantial uncertainty about the theoretical prospect for elimination of HIV from the population using ART alone over the next four decades. The number of person-years of ART per infection averted over 8 y ranged between 5.8 and 18.7. Considering the actual scale-up of ART in South Africa, seven models estimated that current HIV incidence is 17% to 32% lower than it would have been in the absence of ART. Differences between model assumptions about CD4 decline and HIV transmissibility over the course of infection explained only a modest amount of the variation in model results.Mathematical models evaluating the impact of ART vary

  20. HIV treatment as prevention: systematic comparison of mathematical models of the potential impact of antiretroviral therapy on HIV incidence in South Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eaton, Jeffrey W; Johnson, Leigh F; Salomon, Joshua A; Bärnighausen, Till; Bendavid, Eran; Bershteyn, Anna; Bloom, David E; Cambiano, Valentina; Fraser, Christophe; Hontelez, Jan A C; Humair, Salal; Klein, Daniel J; Long, Elisa F; Phillips, Andrew N; Pretorius, Carel; Stover, John; Wenger, Edward A; Williams, Brian G; Hallett, Timothy B

    2012-01-01

    Many mathematical models have investigated the impact of expanding access to antiretroviral therapy (ART) on new HIV infections. Comparing results and conclusions across models is challenging because models have addressed slightly different questions and have reported different outcome metrics. This study compares the predictions of several mathematical models simulating the same ART intervention programmes to determine the extent to which models agree about the epidemiological impact of expanded ART. Twelve independent mathematical models evaluated a set of standardised ART intervention scenarios in South Africa and reported a common set of outputs. Intervention scenarios systematically varied the CD4 count threshold for treatment eligibility, access to treatment, and programme retention. For a scenario in which 80% of HIV-infected individuals start treatment on average 1 y after their CD4 count drops below 350 cells/µl and 85% remain on treatment after 3 y, the models projected that HIV incidence would be 35% to 54% lower 8 y after the introduction of ART, compared to a counterfactual scenario in which there is no ART. More variation existed in the estimated long-term (38 y) reductions in incidence. The impact of optimistic interventions including immediate ART initiation varied widely across models, maintaining substantial uncertainty about the theoretical prospect for elimination of HIV from the population using ART alone over the next four decades. The number of person-years of ART per infection averted over 8 y ranged between 5.8 and 18.7. Considering the actual scale-up of ART in South Africa, seven models estimated that current HIV incidence is 17% to 32% lower than it would have been in the absence of ART. Differences between model assumptions about CD4 decline and HIV transmissibility over the course of infection explained only a modest amount of the variation in model results. Mathematical models evaluating the impact of ART vary substantially in

  1. Epidemiology of infections by HIV, Syphilis, Gonorrhea and Lymphogranuloma Venereum in Barcelona City: a population-based incidence study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martí-Pastor, Marc; García de Olalla, Patricia; Barberá, Maria-Jesús; Manzardo, Christian; Ocaña, Inma; Knobel, Hernando; Gurguí, Mercè; Humet, Victoria; Vall, Martí; Ribera, Esteban; Villar, Judit; Martín, Gemma; Sambeat, Maria A; Marco, Andres; Vives, Alvaro; Alsina, Mercè; Miró, Josep M; Caylà, Joan A

    2015-10-05

    The aim of this study was to determine the evolution of HIV infection, gonorrhea, syphilis and lymphogranuloma venereum (LGV), and their epidemiological characteristics in Barcelona city. Population-based incidence study of all newly occurring diagnoses of HIV infection, syphilis, gonorrhea and LGV detected in Barcelona between January 2007 and December 2011. A descriptive analysis was performed. The annual incidence rates per 100,000 inhabitants were calculated by sex, sexual conduct and educational level. To estimate global sex-specific rates we used the Barcelona city census; for the calculation of rates by sexual conduct and educational level we used estimates of the Barcelona Health Interview Survey. Trends were analysed using the chi-squared test for linear trend. HIV. 66.8 % of the HIV cases were men who had sex with men (MSM). The incidence rates in MSM over the study period were from 692.67/100,000 to 909.88/100,000 inh. Syphilis. 74.2 % of the syphilis cases were MSM. The incidence rates in MSM were from 224.9/100,000 to 891.97/100,000 inh. and the MSM with a university education ranged from 196.3/100,000 to 1020.8/100,000. Gonorrhea. 45.5 % of the gonorrhea cases were MSM. The incidence rates in MSM were from 164.24/100,000 to 404.79/100,000 inh. and the MSM with university education ranged from 176.7/100,000 to 530.1/100,000 inh.. Lymphogranuloma venereum (LGV). 95.3 % of the LGV cases are MSM. The incidence rates in MSM were from 24.99/100,000 to 282.99/100,000 inh. and the MSM with university education ranged from 9.3/100,000 to 265/100,000 inh. An increase in cases of STI was observed. These STI mainly affected MSM with a university education. Continuing to monitor changes in the epidemiology of STI, and identifying the most affected groups should permit redesigning preventive programs, with the goal of finding the most efficient way to reach these population groups.

  2. Incidence, risk factors and mortality of tuberculosis in Danish HIV patients 1995-2007

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Taarnhøj, Gry A.; Engsig, Frederik N; Ravn, Pernille

    2011-01-01

    Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) infection predisposes to tuberculosis (TB). We described incidence, risk factors and prognosis of TB in HIV-1 infected patients during pre (1995-1996), early (1997-1999), and late Highly Active Antiretroviral Therapy (HAART) (2000-2007) periods.......Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) infection predisposes to tuberculosis (TB). We described incidence, risk factors and prognosis of TB in HIV-1 infected patients during pre (1995-1996), early (1997-1999), and late Highly Active Antiretroviral Therapy (HAART) (2000-2007) periods....

  3. Incidence, presentation and outcome of toxoplasmosis in HIV infected in the combination antiretroviral therapy era

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Martin-Iguacel, Raquel; Ahlstrom, Magnus Glindvad; Touma, Madeleine

    2017-01-01

    Background: HIV-associated incidence and prognosis of cerebral toxoplasmosis (CTX) is not well established during later years. Methods: From the Danish HIV Cohort Study, we identified 6325 HIV-infected individuals. We assessed incidence, mortality, predictive and prognostic factors of CTX during...

  4. Recent HIV prevalence trends among pregnant women and all women in sub-Saharan Africa: implications for HIV estimates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eaton, Jeffrey W; Rehle, Thomas M; Jooste, Sean; Nkambule, Rejoice; Kim, Andrea A; Mahy, Mary; Hallett, Timothy B

    2014-11-01

    National population-wide HIV prevalence and incidence trends in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are indirectly estimated using HIV prevalence measured among pregnant women attending antenatal clinics (ANC), among other data. We evaluated whether recent HIV prevalence trends among pregnant women are representative of general population trends. Serial population-based household surveys in 13 SSA countries. We calculated HIV prevalence trends among all women aged 15-49 years and currently pregnant women between surveys conducted from 2003 to 2008 (period 1) and 2009 to 2012 (period 2). Log-binomial regression was used to test for a difference in prevalence trend between the two groups. Prevalence among pregnant women was age-standardized to represent the age distribution of all women. Pooling data for all countries, HIV prevalence declined among pregnant women from 6.5 [95% confidence interval (CI) 5.3-7.9%] to 5.3% (95% CI 4.2-6.6%) between periods 1 and 2, whereas it remained unchanged among all women at 8.4% (95% CI 8.0-8.9%) in period 1 and 8.3% (95% CI 7.9-8.8%) in period 2. Prevalence declined by 18% (95% CI -9-38%) more in pregnant women than nonpregnant women. Estimates were similar in Western, Eastern, and Southern regions of SSA; none were statistically significant (P>0.05). HIV prevalence decreased significantly among women aged 15-24 years while increasing significantly among women 35-49 years, who represented 29% of women but only 15% of pregnant women. Age-standardization of prevalence in pregnant women did not reconcile the discrepant trends because at older ages prevalence was lower among pregnant women than nonpregnant women. As HIV prevalence in SSA has shifted toward older, less-fertile women, HIV prevalence among pregnant women has declined more rapidly than prevalence in women overall. Interpretation of ANC prevalence data to inform national HIV estimates should account for both age-specific fertility patterns and HIV-related sub-fertility.

  5. Lung cancer incidence and survival among HIV-infected and uninfected women and men.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hessol, Nancy A; Martínez-Maza, Otoniel; Levine, Alexandra M; Morris, Alison; Margolick, Joseph B; Cohen, Mardge H; Jacobson, Lisa P; Seaberg, Eric C

    2015-06-19

    To determine the lung cancer incidence and survival time among HIV-infected and uninfected women and men. Two longitudinal studies of HIV infection in the United States. Data from 2549 women in the Women's Interagency HIV Study (WIHS) and 4274 men in the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study (MACS), all with a history of cigarette smoking, were analyzed. Lung cancer incidence rates and incidence rate ratios were calculated using Poisson regression analyses. Survival time was assessed using Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional-hazard analyses. Thirty-seven women and 23 men developed lung cancer (46 HIV-infected and 14 HIV-uninfected) during study follow-up. In multivariable analyses, the factors that were found to be independently associated with a higher lung cancer incidence rate ratios were older age, less education, 10 or more pack-years of smoking, and a prior diagnosis of AIDS pneumonia (vs. HIV-uninfected women). In an adjusted Cox model that allowed different hazard functions for each cohort, a history of injection drug use was associated with shorter survival, and a lung cancer diagnosis after 2001 was associated with longer survival. In an adjusted Cox model restricted to HIV-infected participants, nadir CD4 lymphocyte cell count less than 200 was associated with shorter survival time. Our data suggest that pulmonary damage and inflammation associated with HIV infection may be causative for the increased risk of lung cancer. Encouraging and assisting younger HIV-infected smokers to quit and to sustain cessation of smoking is imperative to reduce the lung cancer burden in this population.

  6. High HIV incidence in men who have sex with men following an early syphilis diagnosis: is there room for pre-exposure prophylaxis as a prevention strategy?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Girometti, Nicolò; Gutierrez, Angela; Nwokolo, Nneka; McOwan, Alan; Whitlock, Gary

    2017-08-01

    HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is becoming a pivotal strategy for HIV prevention. Understanding the impact of risk factors for HIV transmission to identify those at highest risk would favour the implementation of PrEP, currently limited by costs. In this service evaluation, we estimated the incidence of bacterial STIs in men who have sex with men (MSM) diagnosed with early syphilis attending a London sexual health clinic according to their HIV status. In addition, we estimated the incidence of HIV infection in HIV-negative MSM, following a diagnosis of early syphilis. We undertook a retrospective case note review of all MSM patients diagnosed with early syphilis between January and June 2014. A number of sexual health screens and diagnoses of chlamydia, gonorrhoea and HIV were prospectively analysed following the syphilis diagnosis. 206 MSM were diagnosed with early syphilis. 110 (53%) were HIV-negative at baseline, 96 (47%) were HIV-positive. Only age (37 vs 32 years, p=0.0005) was significantly different according to HIV status of MSM at baseline. In HIV-negative versus HIV-positive MSM, incidence of rectal chlamydia infection at follow-up was 27 cases vs 50/100 person-years of follow-up (PYFU) (p=0.0039), 33 vs 66/100 PYFU (p=0.0044) for rectal gonorrhoea and 10 vs 26/100 PYFU (p=0.0044) for syphilis reinfection, respectively. Total follow-up for 110 HIV-negative MSM was 144 person-years. HIV incidence was 8.3/100 PYFU (CI 4.2 to 14). A diagnosis of early syphilis carries a high risk of consequent HIV seroconversion and should warrant prioritised access to prevention measures such as PrEP and regular STI screening to prevent HIV transmission. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

  7. Incidence of syphilis seroconversion among HIV-infected persons in Asia: results from the TREAT Asia HIV Observational Database.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahn, Jin Young; Boettiger, David; Kiertiburanakul, Sasisopin; Merati, Tuti Parwati; Huy, Bui Vu; Wong, Wing Wai; Ditangco, Rossana; Lee, Man Po; Oka, Shinichi; Durier, Nicolas; Choi, Jun Yong

    2016-01-01

    Outbreaks of syphilis have been described among HIV-infected men who have sex with men (MSM) in Western communities, whereas reports in Asian countries are limited. We aimed to characterize the incidence and temporal trends of syphilis among HIV-infected MSM compared with HIV-infected non-MSM in Asian countries. Patients enrolled in the TREAT Asia HIV Observational Database cohort and with a negative non-treponemal test since enrolment were analyzed. Incidence of syphilis seroconversion, defined as a positive non-treponemal test after previously testing negative, was evaluated among patients at sites performing non-treponemal tests at least annually. Factors associated with syphilis seroconversion were investigated at sites doing non-treponemal testing in all new patients and subsequently testing routinely or when patients were suspected of having syphilis. We included 1010 patients from five sites that performed non-treponemal tests in all new patients; those included had negative non-treponemal test results during enrolment and subsequent follow-ups. Among them, 657 patients were from three sites conducting regular non-treponemal testing. The incidence of syphilis seroconversion was 5.38/100 person-years (PY). Incidence was higher in MSM than non-MSM (7.64/100 PY vs. 2.44/100 PY, psyphilis diagnosis (IRR 5.15, 95% CI 3.69-7.17) and younger age (IRR 0.84 for every additional 10 years, 95% CI 0.706-0.997) were significantly associated with syphilis seroconversion. We observed a higher incidence of syphilis seroconversion among HIV-infected MSM and a trend to increasing annual incidence. Regular screening for syphilis and targeted interventions to limit transmission are needed in this population.

  8. Age-disparate relationships and HIV incidence in adolescent girls and young women: evidence from Zimbabwe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaefer, Robin; Gregson, Simon; Eaton, Jeffrey W; Mugurungi, Owen; Rhead, Rebecca; Takaruza, Albert; Maswera, Rufurwokuda; Nyamukapa, Constance

    2017-06-19

    Age-disparate sexual relationships with older men may drive high rates of HIV acquisition in young women in sub-Saharan Africa, but evidence is limited. We investigate the association between age-disparate relationships and HIV incidence in Manicaland, Zimbabwe. A general-population open-cohort study (six surveys) (1998-2013). A total of 3746 young women aged 15-24 years participated in consecutive surveys and were HIV-negative at the beginning of intersurvey periods. Last sexual partner age difference and age-disparate relationships [intergenerational (≥10 years age difference) and intragenerational (5-9 years) versus age-homogeneous (0-4 years)] were tested for associations with HIV incidence in Cox regressions. A proximate determinants framework was used to explore factors possibly explaining variations in the contribution of age-disparate relationships to HIV incidence between populations and over time. About 126 HIV infections occurred over 8777 person-years (1.43 per 100 person-years; 95% confidence interval = 1.17-1.68). Sixty-five percent of women reported partner age differences of at least 5 years. Increasing partner age differences were associated with higher HIV incidence [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) = 1.05 (1.01-1.09)]. Intergenerational relationships tended to increase HIV incidence [aHR = 1.78 (0.96-3.29)] but not intragenerational relationships [aHR = 0.91 (0.47-1.76)]. Secondary education was associated with reductions in intergenerational relationships [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 0.49 (0.36-0.68)]. Intergenerational relationships were associated with partners having concurrent relationships [aOR = 2.59 (1.81-3.70)], which tended to increase HIV incidence [aHR = 1.74 (0.96-3.17)]. Associations between age disparity and HIV incidence did not change over time. Sexual relationships with older men expose young women to increased risk of HIV acquisition in Manicaland, which did not change over time, even with introduction

  9. Contraceptive method and pregnancy incidence among women in HIV-1-serodiscordant partnerships.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ngure, Kenneth; Heffron, Renee; Mugo, Nelly R; Celum, Connie; Cohen, Craig R; Odoyo, Josephine; Rees, Helen; Kiarie, James N; Were, Edwin; Baeten, Jared M

    2012-02-20

    Effective contraception reduces unintended pregnancies and is a central strategy to reduce vertical HIV-1 transmission for HIV-1-infected women. Among 2269 HIV-1-seropositive and 1085-seronegative women from seven African countries who were members of HIV-1-serodiscordant heterosexual partnerships and who were participating in an HIV-1 prevention clinical trial, we assessed pregnancy incidence according to contraceptive method using multivariate Andersen-Gill analysis. Compared with women using no contraceptive method, pregnancy incidence was significantly reduced among HIV-1-seropositive and HIV-1-seronegative women using injectable contraception [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 0.24, P = 0.001 and aHR 0.25, P pregnancy risk only among HIV-1-seropositive women (aHR 0.51, P = 0.004) but not seronegative women (aHR 0.64, P = 0.3), and, for both seropositive and seronegative women, oral contraceptive pill users were more likely to become pregnant than injectable contraceptive users (aHR 2.22, P = 0.01 for HIV-1-seropositive women and aHR 2.65, P = 0.09 for HIV-1-seronegative women). Condoms, when reported as being used as the primary contraceptive method, marginally reduced pregnancy incidence (aHR 0.85, P = 0.1 for seropositive women and aHR 0.67, P = 0.02 for seronegative women). There were no pregnancies among women using intrauterine devices, implantable methods or who had undergone surgical sterilization, although these methods were used relatively infrequently. Family planning programs and HIV-1 prevention trials need innovative ways to motivate uptake and sustained use of longer acting, less user-dependent contraception for women who do not desire pregnancy.

  10. Heterosexual male and female disparities in HIV infection at the end of an epidemic: HIV infection among persons who inject drugs in New York City, 2001-2005 and 2011-2015.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Des Jarlais, Don C; McKnight, Courtney; Feelemyer, Jonathan; Arasteh, Kamyar; Tross, Susan; Campbell, Aimee N C; Cooper, Hannah L F; Perlman, David C

    2018-04-01

    We examined whether sex disparities (heterosexual male:female) in HIV infection continue to persist at the "end of the HIV epidemic" among persons who inject drugs (PWID) in New York City (NYC). An "end of the epidemic" was operationally defined as 1) prevalence of untreated HIV infection <5%, and 2) estimated HIV incidence <0.5/100 person-years. PWID were recruited from persons entering substance use treatment programs at Mount Sinai Beth Israel in 2001-2005 and 2011-2015. A structured interview was administered, and HIV and HSV-2 testing was conducted. Incidence was estimated using newly diagnosed cases of HIV. Disparity analyses compared prevalence of HIV, of untreated HIV, HIV risk behaviors, and estimated HIV incidence. By 2011-2015, both heterosexual male and female PWID met the two criteria for an "end of the epidemic," and there were no significant differences in the prevalence of untreated HIV infection. A large sex difference remained in estimated HIV incidence. In 2013-2015, estimated HIV incidence was 2.8/10,000 PY for males and 7.1/10,000 PY for females. Females had greater risk for HIV on several factors. While NYC has reached an "end of the epidemic" for both heterosexual male and female PWID, sex disparities persist, particularly differences in HIV incidence. Eliminating the sex disparities may require a greater focus on factors associated with sexual transmission. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. HIV Treatment as Prevention: Systematic Comparison of Mathematical Models of the Potential Impact of Antiretroviral Therapy on HIV Incidence in South Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eaton, Jeffrey W.; Johnson, Leigh F.; Salomon, Joshua A.; Bärnighausen, Till; Bendavid, Eran; Bershteyn, Anna; Bloom, David E.; Cambiano, Valentina; Fraser, Christophe; Hontelez, Jan A. C.; Humair, Salal; Klein, Daniel J.; Long, Elisa F.; Phillips, Andrew N.; Pretorius, Carel; Stover, John; Wenger, Edward A.; Williams, Brian G.; Hallett, Timothy B.

    2012-01-01

    Background Many mathematical models have investigated the impact of expanding access to antiretroviral therapy (ART) on new HIV infections. Comparing results and conclusions across models is challenging because models have addressed slightly different questions and have reported different outcome metrics. This study compares the predictions of several mathematical models simulating the same ART intervention programmes to determine the extent to which models agree about the epidemiological impact of expanded ART. Methods and Findings Twelve independent mathematical models evaluated a set of standardised ART intervention scenarios in South Africa and reported a common set of outputs. Intervention scenarios systematically varied the CD4 count threshold for treatment eligibility, access to treatment, and programme retention. For a scenario in which 80% of HIV-infected individuals start treatment on average 1 y after their CD4 count drops below 350 cells/µl and 85% remain on treatment after 3 y, the models projected that HIV incidence would be 35% to 54% lower 8 y after the introduction of ART, compared to a counterfactual scenario in which there is no ART. More variation existed in the estimated long-term (38 y) reductions in incidence. The impact of optimistic interventions including immediate ART initiation varied widely across models, maintaining substantial uncertainty about the theoretical prospect for elimination of HIV from the population using ART alone over the next four decades. The number of person-years of ART per infection averted over 8 y ranged between 5.8 and 18.7. Considering the actual scale-up of ART in South Africa, seven models estimated that current HIV incidence is 17% to 32% lower than it would have been in the absence of ART. Differences between model assumptions about CD4 decline and HIV transmissibility over the course of infection explained only a modest amount of the variation in model results. Conclusions Mathematical models evaluating

  12. Incident HIV during pregnancy and early postpartum period: a population-based cohort study in a rural area in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chetty, Terusha; Vandormael, Alain; Thorne, Claire; Coutsoudis, Anna

    2017-07-26

    The evidence on the effect of pregnancy on acquiring HIV is conflicting, with studies reporting both higher and lower HIV acquisition risk during pregnancy when prolonged antiretroviral therapy was accessible. The aim of this study was to assess the pregnancy effect on HIV acquisition where antiretroviral therapy was widely available in a high HIV prevalence setting. This is a retrospective cohort study nested within a population-based surveillance to determine HIV incidence in HIV-uninfected women from 15 to 49 years from 2010 through 2015 in rural KwaZulu-Natal. HIV incidence per 100 person-years according to pregnancy status (not pregnant, pregnant, to eight weeks postpartum) were measured in 5260 HIV-uninfected women. Hazard ratios (HR) were estimated by Cox proportional hazards regression with pregnancy included as a time varying variable. Overall, pregnancy HIV incidence was 4.5 per 100 person-years (95% CI 3.4-5.8), higher than non-pregnancy (4.0; 95% CI 3.7-4.3) and postpartum incidences (4.2 per 100 person-years; 95% CI 2.3-7.6). However, adjusting for age, and demographic factors, pregnant women had a lower risk of acquiring HIV (HR 0.4; 95% CI 0.2-0.9, P = 0.032) than non-pregnant women; there were no differences between postpartum and non-pregnant women (HR 1.2; 95% CI 0.4-3.2; P = 0.744). In models adjusting for the interaction of age and gravidity, pregnant women under 25 years with two or more pregnancies had a 2.3 times greater risk of acquiring HIV than their older counterparts (95% CI 1.3-4.3; P = 0.008). Pregnancy had a protective effect on HIV acquisition. Elevated HIV incidence in younger women appeared to be driven by those with higher gravidity. The sexual and biological factors in younger women should be explored further in order to design appropriate HIV prevention interventions.

  13. Population profiling in China by gender and age: implication for HIV incidences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Yuanyi; Wu, Jianhong

    2009-11-18

    With the world's largest population, HIV spread in China has been closely watched and widely studied by its government and the international community. One important factor that might contribute to the epidemic is China's numerous surplus of men, due to its imbalanced sex ratio in newborns. However, the sex ratio in the human population is often assumed to be 1:1 in most studies of sexually transmitted diseases (STDs). Here, a mathematical model is proposed to estimate the population size in each gender and within different stages of reproduction and sexual activities. This population profiling by age and gender will assist in more precise prediction of HIV incidences. The total population is divided into 6 subgroups by gender and age. A deterministic compartmental model is developed to describe birth, death, age and the interactions among different subgroups, with a focus on the preference for newborn boys and its impact for the sex ratios. Data from 2003 to 2007 is used to estimate model parameters, and simulations predict short-term and long-term population profiles. The population of China will go to a descending track around 2030. Despite the possible underestimated number of newborns in the last couple of years, model-based simulations show that there will be about 28 million male individuals in 2055 without female partners during their sexually active stages. The birth rate in China must be increased to keep the population viable. But increasing the birth rate without balancing the sex ratio in newborns is problematic, as this will generate a large number of surplus males. Besides other social, economic and psychological issues, the impact of this surplus of males on STD incidences, including HIV infections, must be dealt with as early as possible.

  14. Population profiling in China by gender and age: implication for HIV incidences

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-01-01

    Background With the world's largest population, HIV spread in China has been closely watched and widely studied by its government and the international community. One important factor that might contribute to the epidemic is China's numerous surplus of men, due to its imbalanced sex ratio in newborns. However, the sex ratio in the human population is often assumed to be 1:1 in most studies of sexually transmitted diseases (STDs). Here, a mathematical model is proposed to estimate the population size in each gender and within different stages of reproduction and sexual activities. This population profiling by age and gender will assist in more precise prediction of HIV incidences. Method The total population is divided into 6 subgroups by gender and age. A deterministic compartmental model is developed to describe birth, death, age and the interactions among different subgroups, with a focus on the preference for newborn boys and its impact for the sex ratios. Data from 2003 to 2007 is used to estimate model parameters, and simulations predict short-term and long-term population profiles. Results The population of China will go to a descending track around 2030. Despite the possible underestimated number of newborns in the last couple of years, model-based simulations show that there will be about 28 million male individuals in 2055 without female partners during their sexually active stages. Conclusion The birth rate in China must be increased to keep the population viable. But increasing the birth rate without balancing the sex ratio in newborns is problematic, as this will generate a large number of surplus males. Besides other social, economic and psychological issues, the impact of this surplus of males on STD incidences, including HIV infections, must be dealt with as early as possible. PMID:19922693

  15. National HIV/AIDS mortality, prevalence, and incidence rates are associated with the Human Development Index.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lou, Li-Xia; Chen, Yi; Yu, Chao-Hui; Li, You-Ming; Ye, Juan

    2014-10-01

    HIV/AIDS is a worldwide threat to human health with mortality, prevalence, and incidence rates varying widely. We evaluated the association between the global HIV/AIDS epidemic and national socioeconomic development. We obtained global age-standardized HIV/AIDS mortality, prevalence, and incidence rates from World Health Statistics Report of the World Health Organization. The human development indexes (HDIs) of 141 countries were obtained from a Human Development Report. Countries were divided into 4 groups according to the HDI distribution. We explored the association between HIV/AIDS epidemic and HDI information using Spearman correlation analysis, regression analysis, and the Kruskal-Wallis test. HIV/AIDS mortality, prevalence, and incidence rates were inversely correlated with national HDI (r = -0.675, -0.519, and -0.398, respectively; P birth, mean years of schooling, expected years of schooling, and gross national income per capita). Low HDI countries had higher HIV/AIDS mortality, prevalence, and incidence rates than that of medium, high, and very high HDI countries. Quantile regression results indicated that HDI had a greater negative effect on the HIV/AIDS epidemic in countries with more severe HIV/AIDS epidemic. Less-developed countries are likely to have more severe HIV/AIDS epidemic. There is a need to pay more attention to HIV/AIDS control in less-developed countries, where lower socioeconomic status might have accelerated the HIV/AIDS epidemic more rapidly. Copyright © 2014 Association for Professionals in Infection Control and Epidemiology, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Preventing HIV Transmission Among Partners of HIV-Positive Male Sex Workers in Mexico City: A Modeling Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monteiro, João Filipe G; Marshall, Brandon D L; Escudero, Daniel; Sosa-Rubí, Sandra G; González, Andrea; Flanigan, Timothy; Operario, Don; Mayer, Kenneth H; Lurie, Mark N; Galárraga, Omar

    2015-09-01

    Mexico has a concentrated HIV epidemic, with male sex workers constituting a key affected population. We estimated annual HIV cumulative incidence among male sex workers' partners, and then compared incidence under three hypothetical intervention scenarios: improving condom use; and scaling up HIV treatment as prevention, considering current viral suppression rates (CVS, 60.7 %) or full viral suppression among those treated (FVS, 100 %). Clinical and behavioral data to inform model parameterization were derived from a sample (n = 79) of male sex workers recruited from street locations and Clínica Condesa, an HIV clinic in Mexico City. We estimated annual HIV incidence among male sex workers' partners to be 8.0 % (95 % CI: 7.3-8.7). Simulation models demonstrated that increasing condom use by 10 %, and scaling up HIV treatment initiation by 50 % (from baseline values) would decrease the male sex workers-attributable annual incidence to 5.2, 4.4 % (CVS) and 3.2 % (FVS), respectively. Scaling up the number of male sex workers on ART and implementing interventions to ensure adherence is urgently required to decrease HIV incidence among male sex workers' partners in Mexico City.

  17. Does marital status matter in an HIV hyperendemic country? Findings from the 2012 South African National HIV Prevalence, Incidence and Behaviour Survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shisana, Olive; Risher, Kathryn; Celentano, David D; Zungu, Nompumelelo; Rehle, Thomas; Ngcaweni, Busani; Evans, Meredith G B

    2016-01-01

    South Africa has experienced declining marriage rates and the increasing practice of cohabitation without marriage. This study aims to improve the understanding of the relationship between marital status and HIV in South Africa, an HIV hyperendemic country, through an analysis of findings from the 2012 South African National HIV Prevalence, Incidence and Behaviour Survey. The nationally representative population-based cross-sectional survey collected data on HIV and socio-demographic and behavioural determinants in South Africa. This analysis considered respondents aged 16 years and older who consented to participate in the survey and provided dried blood spot specimens for HIV testing (N = 17,356). After controlling for age, race, having multiple sexual partners, condom use at last sex, urban/rural dwelling and level of household income, those who were married living with their spouse had significantly reduced odds of being HIV-positive compared to all other marital spouses groups. HIV incidence was 0.27% among respondents who were married living with their spouses; the highest HIV incidence was found in the cohabiting group (2.91%). Later marriage (after age 24) was associated with increased odds of HIV prevalence. Our analysis suggests an association between marital status and HIV prevalence and incidence in contemporary South Africa, where odds of being HIV-positive were found to be lower among married individuals who lived with their spouses compared to all other marital status groups. HIV prevention messages therefore need to be targeted to unmarried populations, especially cohabitating populations. As low socio-economic status, low social cohesion and the resulting destabilization of sexual relationships may explain the increased risk of HIV among unmarried populations, it is necessary to address structural issues including poverty that create an environment unfavourable to stable sexual relationships.

  18. Incidence and determinants of tuberculosis infection among adult patients with HIV attending HIV care in north-east Ethiopia: a retrospective cohort study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmed, Ausman; Mekonnen, Desalew; Shiferaw, Atsede M; Belayneh, Fanuel

    2018-01-01

    Objective This study assessed the incidence of tuberculosis (TB) and its predictors among adults living with HIV/AIDS in government health facilities in north-east Ethiopia. Setting A 5-year retrospective cohort study was conducted from May to June 2015 on 451 adult HIV/AIDS-infected individuals who enrolled in the HIV care clinics of government health facilities in north-east Ethiopia. Participants A total of 451 HIV-infected adults who newly enrolled in the adult HIV care clinic from 1 July 2010 with complete information were followed until May 2015. Primary outcome measure The primary outcome was the proportion of patients diagnosed with TB or the TB incidence rate. Secondary outcome measure The incidence of TB was investigated in relation to years of follow-up. Results A total of 451 charts with complete information were followed for 1377.41 person-years (PY) of observation. The overall incidence density of TB was 8.6 per 100 PYof observation. Previous TB disease (adjusted HR (AHR) 3.65, 95% CI 1.97 to 6.73), being bedridden (AHR 5.45, 95% CI 1.16 to 25.49), being underweight (body mass index (BMI) bedridden condition were the determinants of the incidence of TB. Therefore, addressing the significant predictors and improving TB/HIV collaborative activities should be strengthened in the study setting. PMID:29437750

  19. Cancer incidence in people living with HIV/AIDS in Israel, 1981-2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zohar, Mor; Micha, Barchana

    2015-09-01

    Antiretroviral therapy (ART) improved the survival of people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA) and decreased HIV-related morbidities. This study assesses the cancer incidence of all adult PLWHA in Israel by transmission routes before and after 1996. This cohort study was based on cross-matching the National HIV/AIDS and Cancer Registries of all HIV/AIDS and cancer cases reported from 1981 to 2010 with the National civil census. PLWHA were followed-up until cancer diagnosis, death, leaving Israel, or 2010, whichever occurred first. Cancer incidence was adjusted for age, and compared with the National incidence. Of all 5,154 PLWHA followed-up for 36,296 person-years, 362 (7.0%) developed cancer (997.4 cases per 100,000 person-years). Higher hazard ratios to develop cancer were demonstrated among older PLWHA, Jewish people, and intravenous drug users. Cancer incidence among PLWHA was higher in the pre-ART period than after 1997 (1,232.0 and 846.7 cases per 100,000 person-years, respectively). The incidence of AIDS-defining cancers was higher than non-AIDS-defining malignancies, and higher in the pre-ART than the post-ART period (777.0 and 467.2 cases per 100,000 person-years, respectively), while the incidence of non-AIDS-defining cancers showed the opposite trend (376.5 and 455.0 cases per 100,000 person-years, respectively). The incidence of AIDS-defining and non-AIDS-defining cancers declined between the pre-ART and the post-ART period by 2.0 to 3.4 times. PLWHA had higher rates of malignancies than the general population. In conclusion, cancer incidence among PLWHA was associated with age, and declined after ART introduction; yet it was higher than that of the general population. PLWHA may benefit from age-related cancer screening, increased adherence to ART, and reduction of environmental oncogenes.

  20. Pregnancy does not affect HIV incidence test results obtained using the BED capture enzyme immunoassay or an antibody avidity assay.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oliver Laeyendecker

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Accurate incidence estimates are needed for surveillance of the HIV epidemic. HIV surveillance occurs at maternal-child health clinics, but it is not known if pregnancy affects HIV incidence testing.We used the BED capture immunoassay (BED and an antibody avidity assay to test longitudinal samples from 51 HIV-infected Ugandan women infected with subtype A, C, D and intersubtype recombinant HIV who were enrolled in the HIVNET 012 trial (37 baseline samples collected near the time of delivery and 135 follow-up samples collected 3, 4 or 5 years later. Nineteen of 51 women were also pregnant at the time of one or more of the follow-up visits. The BED assay was performed according to the manufacturer's instructions. The avidity assay was performed using a Genetic Systems HIV-1/HIV-2 + O EIA using 0.1M diethylamine as the chaotropic agent.During the HIVNET 012 follow-up study, there was no difference in normalized optical density values (OD-n obtained with the BED assay or in the avidity test results (% when women were pregnant (n = 20 results compared to those obtained when women were not pregnant (n = 115; for BED: p = 0.9, generalized estimating equations model; for avidity: p = 0.7, Wilcoxon rank sum. In addition, BED and avidity results were almost exactly the same in longitudinal samples from the 18 women who were pregnant at only one study visit during the follow-up study (p = 0.6, paired t-test.These results from 51 Ugandan women suggest that any changes in the antibody response to HIV infection that occur during pregnancy are not sufficient to alter results obtained with the BED and avidity assays. Confirmation with larger studies and with other HIV subtypes is needed.

  1. Incidence of Co-Infections of HIV, Herpes Simplex Virus Type 2 and Syphilis in a Large Cohort of Men Who Have Sex with Men in Beijing, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zheng; Wang, Zixin; Qi, Xiao; Ruan, Yuhua; Zhou, Yunhua; Li, Chunrong; Luo, Fengji; Lau, Joseph T. F.

    2016-01-01

    Background The HIV-epidemic among MSM in China has worsened. In this key population, prevalence of HSV-2 and syphilis infection and co-infection with HIV is high. Methods A longitudinal study was conducted (n = 962) in Beijing, China, with three overlapping cohorts (n = 857, 757 and 760) consisting of MSM that were free from pairs of infections of concern (i.e. HIV-HSV-2, HIV-syphilis, HSV-2-syphilis) at baseline to estimate incidence of HIV, HSV-2, syphilis, and those of co-infection. Results The incidence of HIV, HSV-2 and syphilis in the overall cohort was 3.90 (95% CI = 2.37, 5.43), 7.87 (95% CI = 5.74, 10.00) and 6.06 (95% CI = 4.18, 7.94) cases per 100 person-years (PYs), respectively. The incidence of HIV-HSV-2, HIV-Syphilis and HSV-2-Syphilis co-infections was 0.30 (95% CI = 0.29, 0.88), 1.02 (95% CI = 0.13, 2.17) and 1.41 (95% CI: 0.04, 2.78) cases per 100 PYs, respectively, in the three sub-cohorts constructed for this study. Conclusions The incidence of HIV, HSV-2 and syphilis was very high and those of their co-infections were relatively high. Such co-infections have negative impacts on the HIV/STI epidemics. Prevention practices need to take such co-infections into account. PMID:26820145

  2. Population-level effect of potential HSV2 prophylactic vaccines on HIV incidence in sub-Saharan Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freeman, Esther E.; White, Richard G.; Bakker, Roel; Orroth, Kate K.; Weiss, Helen A.; Buvé, Anne; Hayes, Richard J.; Glynn, Judith R.

    2009-01-01

    Herpes simplex virus type-2 (HSV2) infection increases HIV transmission. We explore the impact of a potential prophylactic HSV2 vaccination on HIV incidence in Africa using STDSIM an individual-based model. A campaign that achieved 70% coverage over 5 years with a vaccine that reduced susceptibility to HSV2 acquisition and HSV2 reactivation by 75% for 10 years, reduced HIV incidence by 30–40% after 20 years (range 4–66%). Over 20 years, in most scenarios fewer than 100 vaccinations were required to avert one HIV infection. HSV2 vaccines could have a substantial impact on HIV incidence. Intensified efforts are needed to develop an effective HSV2 vaccine. PMID:19071187

  3. HIV Incidence Prior to, during, and after Violent Conflict in 36 Sub-Saharan African Nations, 1990-2012: An Ecological Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennett, Brady W; Marshall, Brandon D L; Gjelsvik, Annie; McGarvey, Stephen T; Lurie, Mark N

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this study was to determine the association between violent conflict and HIV incidence within and across 36 sub-Saharan Africa countries between 1990 and 2012. We used generalized linear mixed effect modeling to estimate the effect of conflict periods on country-level HIV incidence. We specified random intercepts and slopes to account for across and within country variation over time. We also conducted a sub-analysis of countries who experienced conflict to assess the effect of conflict intensity on country-level HIV incidence. All models controlled for level of economic development, number of refugees present in the country, and year. We found that, compared to times of peace, the HIV incidence rate increased by 2.1 per 1000 infections per year (95%CI: 0.39, 3.87) in the 5 years prior to conflict. Additionally, we found a decrease of 0.7 new infections per 1000 people per year (95%CI: -1.44, -0.01) in conflicts with 25 to 1000 battle-related deaths and a decrease of 1.5 new infections per 1000 people per year (95%CI:-2.50, -0.52) for conflict with more than 1000 battle-related deaths, compared to conflicts with less than 25 battle-related deaths. Our results demonstrate that HIV infection rates increase in the years immediately prior to times of conflict; however, we did not identify a significant increase during and immediately following periods of violent conflict. Further investigation, including more rigorous data collection, is needed, as is increased aid to nations at risk of violent conflict to help in the fight against HIV/AIDS in sub-Saharan Africa.

  4. HIV Incidence Prior to, during, and after Violent Conflict in 36 Sub-Saharan African Nations, 1990-2012: An Ecological Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennett, Brady W.; Marshall, Brandon D. L.; Gjelsvik, Annie; McGarvey, Stephen T.; Lurie, Mark N.

    2015-01-01

    Objectives The aim of this study was to determine the association between violent conflict and HIV incidence within and across 36 sub-Saharan Africa countries between 1990 and 2012. Methods We used generalized linear mixed effect modeling to estimate the effect of conflict periods on country-level HIV incidence. We specified random intercepts and slopes to account for across and within country variation over time. We also conducted a sub-analysis of countries who experienced conflict to assess the effect of conflict intensity on country-level HIV incidence. All models controlled for level of economic development, number of refugees present in the country, and year. Results We found that, compared to times of peace, the HIV incidence rate increased by 2.1 per 1000 infections per year (95%CI: 0.39, 3.87) in the 5 years prior to conflict. Additionally, we found a decrease of 0.7 new infections per 1000 people per year (95%CI: -1.44, -0.01) in conflicts with 25 to 1000 battle-related deaths and a decrease of 1.5 new infections per 1000 people per year (95%CI:-2.50, -0.52) for conflict with more than 1000 battle-related deaths, compared to conflicts with less than 25 battle-related deaths Conclusions Our results demonstrate that HIV infection rates increase in the years immediately prior to times of conflict; however, we did not identify a significant increase during and immediately following periods of violent conflict. Further investigation, including more rigorous data collection, is needed, as is increased aid to nations at risk of violent conflict to help in the fight against HIV/AIDS in sub-Saharan Africa. PMID:26562434

  5. HIV Incidence Prior to, during, and after Violent Conflict in 36 Sub-Saharan African Nations, 1990-2012: An Ecological Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brady W Bennett

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to determine the association between violent conflict and HIV incidence within and across 36 sub-Saharan Africa countries between 1990 and 2012.We used generalized linear mixed effect modeling to estimate the effect of conflict periods on country-level HIV incidence. We specified random intercepts and slopes to account for across and within country variation over time. We also conducted a sub-analysis of countries who experienced conflict to assess the effect of conflict intensity on country-level HIV incidence. All models controlled for level of economic development, number of refugees present in the country, and year.We found that, compared to times of peace, the HIV incidence rate increased by 2.1 per 1000 infections per year (95%CI: 0.39, 3.87 in the 5 years prior to conflict. Additionally, we found a decrease of 0.7 new infections per 1000 people per year (95%CI: -1.44, -0.01 in conflicts with 25 to 1000 battle-related deaths and a decrease of 1.5 new infections per 1000 people per year (95%CI:-2.50, -0.52 for conflict with more than 1000 battle-related deaths, compared to conflicts with less than 25 battle-related deaths.Our results demonstrate that HIV infection rates increase in the years immediately prior to times of conflict; however, we did not identify a significant increase during and immediately following periods of violent conflict. Further investigation, including more rigorous data collection, is needed, as is increased aid to nations at risk of violent conflict to help in the fight against HIV/AIDS in sub-Saharan Africa.

  6. Contraceptive method and pregnancy incidence among African women in HIV-1 serodiscordant partnerships

    Science.gov (United States)

    NGURE, Kenneth; HEFFRON, Renee; MUGO, Nelly R.; CELUM, Connie; COHEN, Craig R.; ODOYO, Josephine; REES, Helen; KIARIE, James N.; WERE, Edwin; BAETEN, Jared M.

    2014-01-01

    Background Effective contraception reduces unintended pregnancies and is a central strategy to reduce vertical HIV-1 transmission for HIV-1 infected women. Methods Among 2269 HIV-1 seropositive and 1085 seronegative women from 7 African countries who were members of HIV-1 serodiscordant heterosexual partnerships and who were participating in an HIV-1 prevention clinical trial, we assessed pregnancy incidence for women using various contraceptive methods using multivariate Andersen-Gill analysis. Results Compared with women using no contraceptive method, pregnancy incidence was significantly reduced among HIV-1 seropositive and seronegative women using injectable contraception (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 0.24, p=0.001 and aHR 0.25, ppregnancy risk only among HIV-1 seropositive women (aHR 0.51, p=0.004) but not seronegative women (aHR 0.64, p=0.3), and, for both seropositive and seronegative women, oral contraceptive pill users were more likely to become pregnant than injectable contraceptive users (aHR 2.22, p=0.01 for HIV-1 seropositive women and aHR 2.65, p=0.09 for HIV-1 seronegative women). Condoms, when reported as being used as the primary contraceptive method, marginally reduced pregnancy incidence (aHR 0.85, p=0.1 for seropositive women and aHR 0.67, p=0.02 for seronegative women). There were no pregnancies among women using intrauterine devices, implantable methods or who had undergone surgical sterilization, although these methods were used relatively infrequently. Conclusions Family planning programs and HIV-1 prevention trials need innovative ways to motivate uptake and sustained use of longer acting, less user-dependent contraception for women who do not desire pregnancy. PMID:22156966

  7. Short Communication: Comparison of Maxim and Sedia Limiting Antigen Assay Performance for Measuring HIV Incidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schlusser, Katherine E; Konikoff, Jacob; Kirkpatrick, Allison R; Morrison, Charles; Chipato, Tsungai; Chen, Pai-Lien; Munjoma, Marshall; Eshleman, Susan H; Laeyendecker, Oliver

    2017-06-01

    Accurate methods for cross-sectional incidence estimation are needed for HIV prevention research. The Limiting Antigen Avidity (LAg-Avidity) assay has been marketed by two vendors, Maxim Biomedical and Sedia BioSciences Corporation. Performance differences between the two versions of the assay are unknown. We tested a total 1,410 treatment-naive samples with both versions of the assay. The samples came from 176 seroconverters from the Zimbabwe Hormonal Contraception and HIV Study. The correlation between the two versions of the assay was 0.93 for the optical density (OD) and 0.86 for the normalized OD. As the difference was more pronounced for the normalized OD, the difference in assays can be attributed to the calibrators. The mean duration of recent infection (MDRI), the average time individuals infected 1,000 copies/ml. The MDRI was 137 days for Sedia and 157 days for Maxim, with a difference of 20 days (95% CI 11-30). The MDRIs decreased to 102 and 120 days with the inclusion of a viral load cutoff of >1,000 copies/ml. These results imply that use of the Sedia LAg-Avidity will result in estimates of incidence ∼13% lower than those using the Maxim LAg-Avidity.

  8. The incidence rate of HIV type-1 drug resistance in patients on antiretroviral therapy: a nationwide population-based Danish cohort study 1999-2005

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Audelin, A.M.; Lohse, N.; Obel, N.

    2009-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Newer antiretroviral treatment regimens for HIV carry a lower risk of inducing drug resistance mutations. We estimated changes in incidence rates (IRs) of new mutations in HIV-infected individuals receiving highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). METHODS: Population-based data...... were obtained from the Danish HIV Cohort Study and the Danish HIV Sequence Database. We included treatment-naive patients initiating HAART after December 1997 and computed time to first drug resistance mutation, identified as new mutations detected within 1 year after a 60-day period of treatment.......077). The IR of PI resistance decreased from 7.5 (1.4-21.8) in 1999 to 2.9 (0.7-11.4) in 2002-2003 (P=0.148). The IRs were low for specific resistance mutations, except for M184V (IR 5.6 [4.0-7.9]) and K103N (IR 8.2 [5.6-12.0]). CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of acquired drug resistance has decreased among HIV...

  9. Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria during 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ortblad, Katrina F; Guinovart, Caterina; Lim, Stephen S; Wolock, Timothy M; Roberts, D Allen; Dansereau, Emily A; Graetz, Nicholas; Barber, Ryan M; Brown, Jonathan C; Wang, Haidong; Duber, Herbert C; Naghavi, Mohsen; Dicker, Daniel; Dandona, Lalit; Salomon, Joshua A; Heuton, Kyle R; Foreman, Kyle; Phillips, David E; Fleming, Thomas D; Flaxman, Abraham D; Phillips, Bryan K; Johnson, Elizabeth K; Coggeshall, Megan S; Abd-Allah, Foad; Ferede, Semaw; Abraham, Jerry P; Abubakar, Ibrahim; Abu-Raddad, Laith J; Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen Me; Achoki, Tom; Adeyemo, Austine Olufemi; Adou, Arsène Kouablan; Adsuar, José C; Agardh, Emilie Elisabet; Akena, Dickens; Al Kahbouri, Mazin J; Alasfoor, Deena; Albittar, Mohammed I; Alcalá-Cerra, Gabriel; Alegretti, Miguel Angel; Alemu, Zewdie Aderaw; Alfonso-Cristancho, Rafael; Alhabib, Samia; Ali, Raghib; Alla, Francois; Allen, Peter J; Alsharif, Ubai; Alvarez, Elena; Alvis-Guzman, Nelson; Amankwaa, Adansi A; Amare, Azmeraw T; Amini, Hassan; Ammar, Walid; Anderson, Benjamin O; Antonio, Carl Abelardo T; Anwari, Palwasha; Ärnlöv, Johan; Arsenijevic, Valentina S Arsic; Artaman, Ali; Asghar, Rana J; Assadi, Reza; Atkins, Lydia S; Badawi, Alaa; Balakrishnan, Kalpana; Banerjee, Amitava; Basu, Sanjay; Beardsley, Justin; Bekele, Tolesa; Bell, Michelle L; Bernabe, Eduardo; Beyene, Tariku Jibat; Bhala, Neeraj; Bhalla, Ashish; Bhutta, Zulfiqar A; Abdulhak, Aref Bin; Binagwaho, Agnes; Blore, Jed D; Basara, Berrak Bora; Bose, Dipan; Brainin, Michael; Breitborde, Nicholas; Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A; Catalá-López, Ferrán; Chadha, Vineet K; Chang, Jung-Chen; Chiang, Peggy Pei-Chia; Chuang, Ting-Wu; Colomar, Mercedes; Cooper, Leslie Trumbull; Cooper, Cyrus; Courville, Karen J; Cowie, Benjamin C; Criqui, Michael H; Dandona, Rakhi; Dayama, Anand; De Leo, Diego; Degenhardt, Louisa; Del Pozo-Cruz, Borja; Deribe, Kebede; Jarlais, Don C Des; Dessalegn, Muluken; Dharmaratne, Samath D; Dilmen, Uğur; Ding, Eric L; Driscoll, Tim R; Durrani, Adnan M; Ellenbogen, Richard G; Ermakov, Sergey Petrovich; Esteghamati, Alireza; Faraon, Emerito Jose A; Farzadfar, Farshad; Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad; Fijabi, Daniel Obadare; Forouzanfar, Mohammad H; Paleo, Urbano Fra.; Gaffikin, Lynne; Gamkrelidze, Amiran; Gankpé, Fortuné Gbètoho; Geleijnse, Johanna M; Gessner, Bradford D; Gibney, Katherine B; Ginawi, Ibrahim Abdelmageem Mohamed; Glaser, Elizabeth L; Gona, Philimon; Goto, Atsushi; Gouda, Hebe N; Gugnani, Harish Chander; Gupta, Rajeev; Gupta, Rahul; Hafezi-Nejad, Nima; Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi; Hammami, Mouhanad; Hankey, Graeme J; Harb, Hilda L; Haro, Josep Maria; Havmoeller, Rasmus; Hay, Simon I; Hedayati, Mohammad T; Pi, Ileana B Heredia; Hoek, Hans W; Hornberger, John C; Hosgood, H Dean; Hotez, Peter J; Hoy, Damian G; Huang, John J; Iburg, Kim M; Idrisov, Bulat T; Innos, Kaire; Jacobsen, Kathryn H; Jeemon, Panniyammakal; Jensen, Paul N; Jha, Vivekanand; Jiang, Guohong; Jonas, Jost B; Juel, Knud; Kan, Haidong; Kankindi, Ida; Karam, Nadim E; Karch, André; Karema, Corine Kakizi; Kaul, Anil; Kawakami, Norito; Kazi, Dhruv S; Kemp, Andrew H; Kengne, Andre Pascal; Keren, Andre; Kereselidze, Maia; Khader, Yousef Saleh; Khalifa, Shams Eldin Ali Hassan; Khan, Ejaz Ahmed; Khang, Young-Ho; Khonelidze, Irma; Kinfu, Yohannes; Kinge, Jonas M; Knibbs, Luke; Kokubo, Yoshihiro; Kosen, S; Defo, Barthelemy Kuate; Kulkarni, Veena S; Kulkarni, Chanda; Kumar, Kaushalendra; Kumar, Ravi B; Kumar, G Anil; Kwan, Gene F; Lai, Taavi; Balaji, Arjun Lakshmana; Lam, Hilton; Lan, Qing; Lansingh, Van C; Larson, Heidi J; Larsson, Anders; Lee, Jong-Tae; Leigh, James; Leinsalu, Mall; Leung, Ricky; Li, Yichong; Li, Yongmei; De Lima, Graça Maria Ferreira; Lin, Hsien-Ho; Lipshultz, Steven E; Liu, Shiwei; Liu, Yang; Lloyd, Belinda K; Lotufo, Paulo A; Machado, Vasco Manuel Pedro; Maclachlan, Jennifer H; Magis-Rodriguez, Carlos; Majdan, Marek; Mapoma, Christopher Chabila; Marcenes, Wagner; Marzan, Melvin Barrientos; Masci, Joseph R; Mashal, Mohammad Taufiq; Mason-Jones, Amanda J; Mayosi, Bongani M; Mazorodze, Tasara T; Mckay, Abigail Cecilia; Meaney, Peter A; Mehndiratta, Man Mohan; Mejia-Rodriguez, Fabiola; Melaku, Yohannes Adama; Memish, Ziad A; Mendoza, Walter; Miller, Ted R; Mills, Edward J; Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin; Mokdad, Ali H; Mola, Glen Liddell; Monasta, Lorenzo; Montico, Marcella; Moore, Ami R; Mori, Rintaro; Moturi, Wilkister Nyaora; Mukaigawara, Mitsuru; Murthy, Kinnari S; Naheed, Aliya; Naidoo, Kovin S; Naldi, Luigi; Nangia, Vinay; Narayan, K M Venkat; Nash, Denis; Nejjari, Chakib; Nelson, Robert G; Neupane, Sudan Prasad; Newton, Charles R; Ng, Marie; Nisar, Muhammad Imran; Nolte, Sandra; Norheim, Ole F; Nowaseb, Vincent; Nyakarahuka, Luke; Oh, In-Hwan; Ohkubo, Takayoshi; Olusanya, Bolajoko O; Omer, Saad B; Opio, John Nelson; Orisakwe, Orish Ebere; Pandian, Jeyaraj D; Papachristou, Christina; Caicedo, Angel J Paternina; Patten, Scott B; Paul, Vinod K; Pavlin, Boris Igor; Pearce, Neil; Pereira, David M; Pervaiz, Aslam; Pesudovs, Konrad; Petzold, Max; Pourmalek, Farshad; Qato, Dima; Quezada, Amado D; Quistberg, D Alex; Rafay, Anwar; Rahimi, Kazem; Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa; Rahman, Sajjad Ur; Raju, Murugesan; Rana, Saleem M; Razavi, Homie; Reilly, Robert Quentin; Remuzzi, Giuseppe; Richardus, Jan Hendrik; Ronfani, Luca; Roy, Nobhojit; Sabin, Nsanzimana; Saeedi, Mohammad Yahya; Sahraian, Mohammad Ali; Samonte, Genesis May J; Sawhney, Monika; Schneider, Ione J C; Schwebel, David C; Seedat, Soraya; Sepanlou, Sadaf G; Servan-Mori, Edson E; Sheikhbahaei, Sara; Shibuya, Kenji; Shin, Hwashin Hyun; Shiue, Ivy; Shivakoti, Rupak; Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora; Silberberg, Donald H; Silva, Andrea P; Simard, Edgar P; Singh, Jasvinder A; Skirbekk, Vegard; Sliwa, Karen; Soneji, Samir; Soshnikov, Sergey S; Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T; Stathopoulou, Vasiliki Kalliopi; Stroumpoulis, Konstantinos; Swaminathan, Soumya; Sykes, Bryan L; Tabb, Karen M; Talongwa, Roberto Tchio; Tenkorang, Eric Yeboah; Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman; Thomson, Alan J; Thorne-Lyman, Andrew L; Towbin, Jeffrey A; Traebert, Jefferson; Tran, Bach X; Dimbuene, Zacharie Tsala; Tsilimbaris, Miltiadis; Uchendu, Uche S; Ukwaja, Kingsley N; Uzun, Selen Begüm; Vallely, Andrew J; Vasankari, Tommi J; Venketasubramanian, N; Violante, Francesco S; Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich; Vollset, Stein Emil; Waller, Stephen; Wallin, Mitchell T; Wang, Linhong; Wang, XiaoRong; Wang, Yanping; Weichenthal, Scott; Weiderpass, Elisabete; Weintraub, Robert G; Westerman, Ronny; White, Richard A; Wilkinson, James D; Williams, Thomas Neil; Woldeyohannes, Solomon Meseret; Wong, John Q; Xu, Gelin; Yang, Yang C; Yano, Yuichiro; Yentur, Gokalp Kadri; Yip, Paul; Yonemoto, Naohiro; Yoon, Seok-Jun; Younis, Mustafa; Yu, Chuanhua; Jin, Kim Yun; El Sayed Zaki, Maysaa; Zhao, Yong; Zheng, Yingfeng; Zhou, Maigeng; Zhu, Jun; Zou, Xiao Nong; Lopez, Alan D; Vos, Theo

    2014-01-01

    Summary Background The Millennium Declaration in 2000 brought special global attention to HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria through the formulation of Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 6. The Global Burden of Disease 2013 study provides a consistent and comprehensive approach to disease estimation for between 1990 and 2013, and an opportunity to assess whether accelerated progress has occurred since the Millennium Declaration. Methods To estimate incidence and mortality for HIV, we used the UNAIDS Spectrum model appropriately modified based on a systematic review of available studies of mortality with and without antiretroviral therapy (ART). For concentrated epidemics, we calibrated Spectrum models to fit vital registration data corrected for misclassification of HIV deaths. In generalised epidemics, we minimised a loss function to select epidemic curves most consistent with prevalence data and demographic data for all-cause mortality. We analysed counterfactual scenarios for HIV to assess years of life saved through prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) and ART. For tuberculosis, we analysed vital registration and verbal autopsy data to estimate mortality using cause of death ensemble modelling. We analysed data for corrected case-notifications, expert opinions on the case-detection rate, prevalence surveys, and estimated cause-specific mortality using Bayesian meta-regression to generate consistent trends in all parameters. We analysed malaria mortality and incidence using an updated cause of death database, a systematic analysis of verbal autopsy validation studies for malaria, and recent studies (2010–13) of incidence, drug resistance, and coverage of insecticide-treated bednets. Findings Globally in 2013, there were 1·8 million new HIV infections (95% uncertainty interval 1·7 million to 2·1 million), 29·2 million prevalent HIV cases (28·1 to 31·7), and 1·3 million HIV deaths (1·3 to 1·5). At the peak of the epidemic in 2005, HIV caused 1

  10. Syphilis Predicts HIV Incidence Among Men and Transgender Women Who Have Sex With Men in a Preexposure Prophylaxis Trial

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solomon, Marc M.; Mayer, Kenneth H.; Glidden, David V.; Liu, Albert Y.; McMahan, Vanessa M.; Guanira, Juan V.; Chariyalertsak, Suwat; Fernandez, Telmo; Grant, Robert M.; Bekker, Linda-Gail; Buchbinder, Susan; Casapia, Martin; Chariyalertsak, Suwat; Guanira, Juan; Kallas, Esper; Lama, Javier; Mayer, Kenneth; Montoya, Orlando; Schechter, Mauro; Veloso, Valdiléa

    2014-01-01

    Background. Syphilis infection may potentiate transmission of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). We sought to determine the extent to which HIV acquisition was associated with syphilis infection within an HIV preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) trial and whether emtricitabine/tenofovir (FTC/TDF) modified that association. Methods. The Preexposure Prophylaxis Initiative (iPrEx) study randomly assigned 2499 HIV-seronegative men and transgender women who have sex with men (MSM) to receive oral daily FTC/TDF or placebo. Syphilis prevalence at screening and incidence during follow-up were measured. Hazard ratios for the effect of incident syphilis on HIV acquisition were calculated. The effect of FTC/TDF on incident syphilis and HIV acquisition was assessed. Results. Of 2499 individuals, 360 (14.4%) had a positive rapid plasma reagin test at screening; 333 (92.5%) had a positive confirmatory test, which did not differ between the arms (FTC/TDF vs placebo, P = .81). The overall syphilis incidence during the trial was 7.3 cases per 100 person-years. There was no difference in syphilis incidence between the study arms (7.8 cases per 100 person-years for FTC/TDF vs 6.8 cases per 100 person-years for placebo, P = .304). HIV incidence varied by incident syphilis (2.8 cases per 100 person-years for no syphilis vs 8.0 cases per 100 person-years for incident syphilis), reflecting a hazard ratio of 2.6 (95% confidence interval, 1.6–4.4; P < .001). There was no evidence for interaction between randomization to the FTC/TDF arm and incident syphilis on HIV incidence. Conclusions. In HIV-seronegative MSM, syphilis infection was associated with HIV acquisition in this PrEP trial; a syphilis diagnosis should prompt providers to offer PrEP unless otherwise contraindicated. PMID:24928295

  11. Decline in overall, smear-negative and HIV-positive TB incidence while smear-positive incidence stays stable in Guinea-Bissau 2004-2011

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lemvik, G; Rudolf, F; Vieira, F

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To calculate Tuberculosis (TB) incidence rates in Guinea-Bissau over an 8-year period. METHODS: Since 2003, a surveillance system has registered all TB cases in six suburban districts of Bissau. In this population-based prospective follow-up study, 1205 cases of pulmonary TB were...... identified between January 2004 and December 2011. Incidence rates were calculated using census data from the Bandim Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS). RESULTS: The overall incidence of pulmonary TB was 279 per 100 000 person-years of observation; the male incidence being 385, and the female...... 191. TB incidence rates increased significantly with age in both sexes, regardless of smear or HIV status. Despite a peak with unknown cause of 352 per 100 000 in 2007, the overall incidence of pulmonary TB declined over the period. The incidence of HIV infected TB cases declined significantly from...

  12. Prevalence, incidence and determinants of herpes simplex virus type 2 infection among HIV-seronegative women at high-risk of HIV infection: a prospective study in Beira, Mozambique.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivete Meque

    Full Text Available To estimate the prevalence, incidence and determinants of herpes simplex type 2 (HSV-2 infection, and associations between HSV-2 and incident HIV infection, among women at higher risk for HIV infection in Beira, Mozambique.Between 2009 and 2012, 411 women aged 18-35 years at higher risk of HIV acquisition (defined as having had two or more sexual partners in the month prior to study enrollment were enrolled and followed monthly for one year. At each study visit, they were counseled, interviewed, and tested for HSV-2 and HIV antibodies.The HSV-2 prevalence at baseline was 60.6% (95% CI: 55.7% -65.4%. Increasing age (aOR = 2.94, 95% CI: 1.74-4.97, P<0.001 and aOR = 3.39, 95% CI: 1.58-7.29, P = 0.002 for age groups of 21-24 and 25-35 years old respectively, lower educational level (aOR = 1.81, 95% CI: 1.09-3.02, P = 0.022, working full time (aOR = 8.56, 95% CI: 1.01-72.53, P = 0.049 and having practiced oral sex (aOR = 3.02, 95% CI: 1.16-7.89, P = 0.024 were strongly associated with prevalent HSV-2 infection. Thirty one participants seroconverted for HSV-2 (20.5%; 95% CI: 14.4% -27.9% and 22 for HIV during the study period. The frequency of vaginal sex with a casual partner using a condom in the last 7 days was independently associated with incident HSV-2 infection (aOR = 1.91, 95% CI: 1.05-3.47, P = 0.034. Positive HSV-2 serology at baseline was not significantly associated with risk of subsequent HIV seroconversion.Young women engaging in risky sexual behaviors in Beira had high prevalence and incidence of HSV-2 infection. Improved primary HSV-2 control strategies are urgently needed in Beira.

  13. Estimating the HIV undiagnosed population in Catalonia, Spain: descriptive and comparative data analysis to identify differences in MSM stratified by migrant and Spanish-born population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, Colin N J; Vives, Núria; Esteve, Anna; Ambrosioni, Juan; Tural, Cristina; Ferrer, Elena; Navarro, Gemma; Force, Lluis; García, Isabel; Masabeu, Àngels; Vilaró, Josep M; García de Olalla, Patricia; Caylà, Joan Artur; Miró, Josep M; Casabona, Jordi

    2018-01-01

    Objective Undiagnosed HIV continues to be a hindrance to efforts aimed at reducing incidence of HIV. The objective of this study was to provide an estimate of the HIV undiagnosed population in Catalonia and compare the HIV care cascade with this step included between high-risk populations. Methods To estimate HIV incidence, time between infection and diagnosis and the undiagnosed population stratified by CD4 count, we used the ECDC HIV Modelling Tool V.1.2.2. This model uses data on new HIV and AIDS diagnoses from the Catalan HIV/AIDS surveillance system from 2001 to 2013. Data used to estimate the proportion of people enrolled, on ART and virally suppressed in the HIV care cascade were derived from the PISCIS cohort. Results The total number of people living with HIV (PLHIV) in Catalonia in 2013 was 34 729 (32 740 to 36 827), with 12.3% (11.8 to 18.1) of whom were undiagnosed. By 2013, there were 8458 (8101 to 9079) Spanish-born men who have sex with men (MSM) and 2538 (2334 to 2918) migrant MSM living with HIV in Catalonia. A greater proportion of migrant MSM than local MSM was undiagnosed (32% vs 22%). In the subsequent steps of the HIV care cascade, migrants MSM experience greater losses than the Spanish-born MSM: in retention in care (74% vs 55%), in the proportion on combination antiretroviral treatment (70% vs 50%) and virally suppressed (65% vs 46%). Conclusions By the end of 2013, there were an estimated 34 729 PLHIV in Catalonia, of whom 4271 were still undiagnosed. This study shows that the Catalan epidemic of HIV has continued to expand with the key group sustaining HIV transmission being MSM living with undiagnosed HIV. PMID:29490955

  14. 78 FR 67175 - Proposed Collection; 60-Day Comment Request: Incident HIV/Hepatitis B Virus Infections in South...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-11-08

    ... Comment Request: Incident HIV/ Hepatitis B Virus Infections in South African Blood Donors: Behavioral Risk... Collection: Incident HIV/Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infections in South African blood donors: Behavioral risk... (either antibody or antigen detection tests) to screen blood donors for HIV and Hepatitis-B Virus (HBV...

  15. Prevalence, Recurrence, and Incidence of Current Depressive Symptoms among People Living with HIV in Ontario, Canada: Results from the Ontario HIV Treatment Network Cohort Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Stephanie K Y; Boyle, Eleanor; Cairney, John; Collins, Evan J; Gardner, Sandra; Bacon, Jean; Rourke, Sean B

    2016-01-01

    Current studies of depression among people living with HIV focus on describing its point prevalence. Given the fluctuating nature of depression and its profound impacts on clinical and quality-of-life outcomes, this study aimed to examine the prevalence, recurrence and incidence of current depressive symptoms and its underlying catalysts longitudinally and systematically among these individuals. We conducted a prospective cohort study between October 1, 2007 and December 31, 2012 using longitudinal linked data sources. Current depressive symptoms was identified using the Centre for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale or the Kessler Psychological Distress Scale, first at baseline and again during follow-up interviews. Multivariable regressions were used to characterize the three outcomes. Of the 3,816 HIV-positive participants, the point prevalence of depressive symptoms was estimated at 28%. Of the 957 participants who were identified with depressive symptoms at baseline and who had at least two years of follow-up, 43% had a recurrent episode. The cumulative incidence among 1,745 previously depressive symptoms free participants (at or prior to baseline) was 14%. During the five-year follow-up, our multivariable models showed that participants with greater risk of recurrent cases were more likely to feel worried about their housing situation. Participants at risk of developing incident cases were also likely to be younger, gay or bisexual, and unable to afford housing-related expenses. Depressive symptoms are prevalent and likely to recur among people living with HIV. Our results support the direction of Ontario's HIV/AIDS Strategy to 2026, which addresses medical concerns associated with HIV (such as depression) and the social drivers of health in order to enhance the overall well-being of people living with or at risk of HIV. Our findings reinforce the importance of providing effective mental health care and demonstrate the need for long-term support and

  16. Prevalence, Recurrence, and Incidence of Current Depressive Symptoms among People Living with HIV in Ontario, Canada: Results from the Ontario HIV Treatment Network Cohort Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Stephanie K. Y.; Boyle, Eleanor; Cairney, John; Collins, Evan J.; Gardner, Sandra; Bacon, Jean; Rourke, Sean B.

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Current studies of depression among people living with HIV focus on describing its point prevalence. Given the fluctuating nature of depression and its profound impacts on clinical and quality-of-life outcomes, this study aimed to examine the prevalence, recurrence and incidence of current depressive symptoms and its underlying catalysts longitudinally and systematically among these individuals. Methods We conducted a prospective cohort study between October 1, 2007 and December 31, 2012 using longitudinal linked data sources. Current depressive symptoms was identified using the Centre for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale or the Kessler Psychological Distress Scale, first at baseline and again during follow-up interviews. Multivariable regressions were used to characterize the three outcomes. Results Of the 3,816 HIV-positive participants, the point prevalence of depressive symptoms was estimated at 28%. Of the 957 participants who were identified with depressive symptoms at baseline and who had at least two years of follow-up, 43% had a recurrent episode. The cumulative incidence among 1,745 previously depressive symptoms free participants (at or prior to baseline) was 14%. During the five-year follow-up, our multivariable models showed that participants with greater risk of recurrent cases were more likely to feel worried about their housing situation. Participants at risk of developing incident cases were also likely to be younger, gay or bisexual, and unable to afford housing-related expenses. Conclusions Depressive symptoms are prevalent and likely to recur among people living with HIV. Our results support the direction of Ontario’s HIV/AIDS Strategy to 2026, which addresses medical concerns associated with HIV (such as depression) and the social drivers of health in order to enhance the overall well-being of people living with or at risk of HIV. Our findings reinforce the importance of providing effective mental health care and

  17. Prevalence, Recurrence, and Incidence of Current Depressive Symptoms among People Living with HIV in Ontario, Canada: Results from the Ontario HIV Treatment Network Cohort Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephanie K Y Choi

    Full Text Available Current studies of depression among people living with HIV focus on describing its point prevalence. Given the fluctuating nature of depression and its profound impacts on clinical and quality-of-life outcomes, this study aimed to examine the prevalence, recurrence and incidence of current depressive symptoms and its underlying catalysts longitudinally and systematically among these individuals.We conducted a prospective cohort study between October 1, 2007 and December 31, 2012 using longitudinal linked data sources. Current depressive symptoms was identified using the Centre for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale or the Kessler Psychological Distress Scale, first at baseline and again during follow-up interviews. Multivariable regressions were used to characterize the three outcomes.Of the 3,816 HIV-positive participants, the point prevalence of depressive symptoms was estimated at 28%. Of the 957 participants who were identified with depressive symptoms at baseline and who had at least two years of follow-up, 43% had a recurrent episode. The cumulative incidence among 1,745 previously depressive symptoms free participants (at or prior to baseline was 14%. During the five-year follow-up, our multivariable models showed that participants with greater risk of recurrent cases were more likely to feel worried about their housing situation. Participants at risk of developing incident cases were also likely to be younger, gay or bisexual, and unable to afford housing-related expenses.Depressive symptoms are prevalent and likely to recur among people living with HIV. Our results support the direction of Ontario's HIV/AIDS Strategy to 2026, which addresses medical concerns associated with HIV (such as depression and the social drivers of health in order to enhance the overall well-being of people living with or at risk of HIV. Our findings reinforce the importance of providing effective mental health care and demonstrate the need for long

  18. A reanalysis of a behavioral intervention to prevent incident HIV infections: Including indirect effects in modeling outcomes of Project EXPLORE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eaton, Lisa A.; Kalichman, Seth C.; Kenny, David A.; Harel, Ofer

    2013-01-01

    Background Project EXPLORE -- a large-scale, behavioral intervention tested among men who have sex with men (MSM) at-risk for HIV infection --was generally deemed as ineffective in reducing HIV incidence. Using novel and more precise data analytic techniques we reanalyzed Project EXPLORE by including both direct and indirect paths of intervention effects. Methods Data from 4,296 HIV negative MSM who participated in Project EXPLORE, which included ten sessions of behavioral risk reduction counseling completed from 1999-2005, were included in the analysis. We reanalyzed the data to include parameters that estimate the overtime effects of the intervention on unprotected anal sex and the over-time effects of the intervention on HIV status mediated by unprotected anal sex simultaneously in a single model. Results We found the indirect effect of intervention on HIV infection through unprotected anal sex to be statistically significant up through 12 months post-intervention, OR=.83, 95% CI=.72-.95. Furthermore, the intervention significantly reduced unprotected anal sex up through 18 months post-intervention, OR=.79, 95% CI=.63-.99. Discussion Our results reveal effects not tested in the original model that offer new insight into the effectiveness of a behavioral intervention for reducing HIV incidence. Project EXPLORE demonstrated that when tested against an evidence-based, effective control condition can result in reductions in rates of HIV acquisition at one year follow-up. Findings highlight the critical role of addressing behavioral risk reduction counseling in HIV prevention. PMID:23245226

  19. The hepatitis C epidemic among HIV-positive MSM

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    van der Helm, Jannie J; Prins, Maria; del Amo, Julia

    2011-01-01

    Outbreaks of acute hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection among HIV-infected MSM have been described since 2000. However, phylogenetic analysis suggests that the spread of HCV started around 1996. We estimated the incidence of HCV in HIV-infected MSM with well estimated dates of HIV seroconversion from...

  20. Refusal bias in the estimation of HIV prevalence

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Janssens, Wendy; van der Gaag, Jacques; Rinke de Wit, Tobias F.; Tanović, Zlata

    2014-01-01

    In 2007, UNAIDS corrected estimates of global HIV prevalence downward from 40 million to 33 million based on a methodological shift from sentinel surveillance to population-based surveys. Since then, population-based surveys are considered the gold standard for estimating HIV prevalence. However,

  1. Estimating the HIV undiagnosed population in Catalonia, Spain: descriptive and comparative data analysis to identify differences in MSM stratified by migrant and Spanish-born population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reyes-Urueña, Juliana Maria; Campbell, Colin N J; Vives, Núria; Esteve, Anna; Ambrosioni, Juan; Tural, Cristina; Ferrer, Elena; Navarro, Gemma; Force, Lluis; García, Isabel; Masabeu, Àngels; Vilaró, Josep M; García de Olalla, Patricia; Caylà, Joan Artur; Miró, Josep M; Casabona, Jordi

    2018-02-28

    Undiagnosed HIV continues to be a hindrance to efforts aimed at reducing incidence of HIV. The objective of this study was to provide an estimate of the HIV undiagnosed population in Catalonia and compare the HIV care cascade with this step included between high-risk populations. To estimate HIV incidence, time between infection and diagnosis and the undiagnosed population stratified by CD4 count, we used the ECDC HIV Modelling Tool V.1.2.2. This model uses data on new HIV and AIDS diagnoses from the Catalan HIV/AIDS surveillance system from 2001 to 2013. Data used to estimate the proportion of people enrolled, on ART and virally suppressed in the HIV care cascade were derived from the PISCIS cohort. The total number of people living with HIV (PLHIV) in Catalonia in 2013 was 34 729 (32 740 to 36 827), with 12.3% (11.8 to 18.1) of whom were undiagnosed. By 2013, there were 8458 (8101 to 9079) Spanish-born men who have sex with men (MSM) and 2538 (2334 to 2918) migrant MSM living with HIV in Catalonia. A greater proportion of migrant MSM than local MSM was undiagnosed (32% vs 22%). In the subsequent steps of the HIV care cascade, migrants MSM experience greater losses than the Spanish-born MSM: in retention in care (74% vs 55%), in the proportion on combination antiretroviral treatment (70% vs 50%) and virally suppressed (65% vs 46%). By the end of 2013, there were an estimated 34 729 PLHIV in Catalonia, of whom 4271 were still undiagnosed. This study shows that the Catalan epidemic of HIV has continued to expand with the key group sustaining HIV transmission being MSM living with undiagnosed HIV. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

  2. High HIV prevalence and incidence among women in Southern Mozambique: Evidence from the MDP microbicide feasibility study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sibone Mocumbi

    Full Text Available The study aimed to assess the feasibility of conducting large scale HIV prevention clinical trials in Mozambique by measuring HIV prevalence and incidence among women of reproductive age. This paper describes the baseline socio-demographic characteristics of the Mozambique Microbicides Development Programme (MDP feasibility cohort, baseline prevalence of HIV and other STIs, and HIV incidence.The Mozambique MDP feasibility study was conducted from September 2007 to August 2009 in urban Mavalane and rural Manhiça, in Southern Mozambique. Sexually active, HIV negative women aged 18 years and above were recruited to attend the study clinic every 4 weeks for a total of 40 weeks. At baseline, we collected demographic and sexual behaviour data, samples to test for sexually transmitted infections (STI and conducted HIV rapid testing. STI and HIV testing were repeated at clinical follow-up visits. We describe HIV prevalence of women at screening, the demographic, behavioural and clinical characteristics of women at enrolment, and HIV incidence during follow-up.We screened 793 women (369 at Mavalane and 424 at Manhiça and enrolled 505 eligible women (254 at Mavalane and 251 at Manhiça. Overall HIV prevalence at screening was 17%; 10% at Mavalane and 22% at Manhiça. Women screened at Manhiça were twice as likely as women screened at Mavalane to be HIV positive and HIV positive status was associated with younger age (18-34, lower educational level, not using a reliable method of contraception and being Zionist compared to other Christian religions. At enrolment contraceptive use was low in both clinics at 19% in Mavalane and 21% in Manhiça, as was reported condom use at last sex act at 48% in Mavalane and 25% in Manhiça. At enrolment, 8% of women tested positive for Trichomonas vaginalis, 2% for Neisseria gonorrhoeae, 4% for Chlamydia trachomatis and 46% for bacterial vaginosis. In Manhiça, 8% of women had active syphilis at screening. HIV incidence

  3. Diagnostic performance of line-immunoassay based algorithms for incident HIV-1 infection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Schüpbach Jörg

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Serologic testing algorithms for recent HIV seroconversion (STARHS provide important information for HIV surveillance. We have previously demonstrated that a patient's antibody reaction pattern in a confirmatory line immunoassay (INNO-LIA™ HIV I/II Score provides information on the duration of infection, which is unaffected by clinical, immunological and viral variables. In this report we have set out to determine the diagnostic performance of Inno-Lia algorithms for identifying incident infections in patients with known duration of infection and evaluated the algorithms in annual cohorts of HIV notifications. Methods Diagnostic sensitivity was determined in 527 treatment-naive patients infected for up to 12 months. Specificity was determined in 740 patients infected for longer than 12 months. Plasma was tested by Inno-Lia and classified as either incident ( Results The 10 best algorithms had a mean raw sensitivity of 59.4% and a mean specificity of 95.1%. Adjustment for overrepresentation of patients in the first quarter year of infection further reduced the sensitivity. In the preferred model, the mean adjusted sensitivity was 37.4%. Application of the 10 best algorithms to four annual cohorts of HIV-1 notifications totalling 2'595 patients yielded a mean IIR of 0.35 in 2005/6 (baseline and of 0.45, 0.42 and 0.35 in 2008, 2009 and 2010, respectively. The increase between baseline and 2008 and the ensuing decreases were highly significant. Other adjustment models yielded different absolute IIR, although the relative changes between the cohorts were identical for all models. Conclusions The method can be used for comparing IIR in annual cohorts of HIV notifications. The use of several different algorithms in combination, each with its own sensitivity and specificity to detect incident infection, is advisable as this reduces the impact of individual imperfections stemming primarily from relatively low sensitivities and

  4. Beyond Risk Compensation: Clusters of Antiretroviral Treatment (ART Users in Sexual Networks Can Modify the Impact of ART on HIV Incidence.

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    Wim Delva

    Full Text Available Concerns about risk compensation-increased risk behaviours in response to a perception of reduced HIV transmission risk-after the initiation of ART have largely been dispelled in empirical studies, but other changes in sexual networking patterns may still modify the effects of ART on HIV incidence.We developed an exploratory mathematical model of HIV transmission that incorporates the possibility of ART clusters, i.e. subsets of the sexual network in which the density of ART patients is much higher than in the rest of the network. Such clusters may emerge as a result of ART homophily-a tendency for ART patients to preferentially form and maintain relationships with other ART patients. We assessed whether ART clusters may affect the impact of ART on HIV incidence, and how the influence of this effect-modifying variable depends on contextual variables such as HIV prevalence, HIV serosorting, coverage of HIV testing and ART, and adherence to ART.ART homophily can modify the impact of ART on HIV incidence in both directions. In concentrated epidemics and generalized epidemics with moderate HIV prevalence (≈ 10%, ART clusters can enhance the impact of ART on HIV incidence, especially when adherence to ART is poor. In hyperendemic settings (≈ 35% HIV prevalence, ART clusters can reduce the impact of ART on HIV incidence when adherence to ART is high but few people living with HIV (PLWH have been diagnosed. In all contexts, the effects of ART clusters on HIV epidemic dynamics are distinct from those of HIV serosorting.Depending on the programmatic and epidemiological context, ART clusters may enhance or reduce the impact of ART on HIV incidence, in contrast to serosorting, which always leads to a lower impact of ART on HIV incidence. ART homophily and the emergence of ART clusters should be measured empirically and incorporated into more refined models used to plan and evaluate ART programmes.

  5. Beyond Risk Compensation: Clusters of Antiretroviral Treatment (ART) Users in Sexual Networks Can Modify the Impact of ART on HIV Incidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delva, Wim; Helleringer, Stéphane

    Concerns about risk compensation-increased risk behaviours in response to a perception of reduced HIV transmission risk-after the initiation of ART have largely been dispelled in empirical studies, but other changes in sexual networking patterns may still modify the effects of ART on HIV incidence. We developed an exploratory mathematical model of HIV transmission that incorporates the possibility of ART clusters, i.e. subsets of the sexual network in which the density of ART patients is much higher than in the rest of the network. Such clusters may emerge as a result of ART homophily-a tendency for ART patients to preferentially form and maintain relationships with other ART patients. We assessed whether ART clusters may affect the impact of ART on HIV incidence, and how the influence of this effect-modifying variable depends on contextual variables such as HIV prevalence, HIV serosorting, coverage of HIV testing and ART, and adherence to ART. ART homophily can modify the impact of ART on HIV incidence in both directions. In concentrated epidemics and generalized epidemics with moderate HIV prevalence (≈ 10%), ART clusters can enhance the impact of ART on HIV incidence, especially when adherence to ART is poor. In hyperendemic settings (≈ 35% HIV prevalence), ART clusters can reduce the impact of ART on HIV incidence when adherence to ART is high but few people living with HIV (PLWH) have been diagnosed. In all contexts, the effects of ART clusters on HIV epidemic dynamics are distinct from those of HIV serosorting. Depending on the programmatic and epidemiological context, ART clusters may enhance or reduce the impact of ART on HIV incidence, in contrast to serosorting, which always leads to a lower impact of ART on HIV incidence. ART homophily and the emergence of ART clusters should be measured empirically and incorporated into more refined models used to plan and evaluate ART programmes.

  6. Beyond Risk Compensation: Clusters of Antiretroviral Treatment (ART) Users in Sexual Networks Can Modify the Impact of ART on HIV Incidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delva, Wim; Helleringer, Stéphane

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Concerns about risk compensation—increased risk behaviours in response to a perception of reduced HIV transmission risk—after the initiation of ART have largely been dispelled in empirical studies, but other changes in sexual networking patterns may still modify the effects of ART on HIV incidence. Methods We developed an exploratory mathematical model of HIV transmission that incorporates the possibility of ART clusters, i.e. subsets of the sexual network in which the density of ART patients is much higher than in the rest of the network. Such clusters may emerge as a result of ART homophily—a tendency for ART patients to preferentially form and maintain relationships with other ART patients. We assessed whether ART clusters may affect the impact of ART on HIV incidence, and how the influence of this effect-modifying variable depends on contextual variables such as HIV prevalence, HIV serosorting, coverage of HIV testing and ART, and adherence to ART. Results ART homophily can modify the impact of ART on HIV incidence in both directions. In concentrated epidemics and generalized epidemics with moderate HIV prevalence (≈ 10%), ART clusters can enhance the impact of ART on HIV incidence, especially when adherence to ART is poor. In hyperendemic settings (≈ 35% HIV prevalence), ART clusters can reduce the impact of ART on HIV incidence when adherence to ART is high but few people living with HIV (PLWH) have been diagnosed. In all contexts, the effects of ART clusters on HIV epidemic dynamics are distinct from those of HIV serosorting. Conclusions Depending on the programmatic and epidemiological context, ART clusters may enhance or reduce the impact of ART on HIV incidence, in contrast to serosorting, which always leads to a lower impact of ART on HIV incidence. ART homophily and the emergence of ART clusters should be measured empirically and incorporated into more refined models used to plan and evaluate ART programmes. PMID:27657492

  7. Estimating the annual risk of HIV transmission within HIV sero-discordant couples in sub-Saharan Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Awad, Susanne F; Chemaitelly, Hiam; Abu-Raddad, Laith J

    2018-01-01

    To estimate the annual risk of HIV transmission (ϕ) within HIV sero-discordant couples in 23 countries in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), by utilizing newly available national population-based data and accounting for factors known to potentially affect this estimation. We used a recently developed pair-based mathematical model that accommodates for HIV-dynamics temporal variation, sexual risk-behavior heterogeneity, and antiretroviral therapy (ART) scale-up. Estimated country-specific ϕ (in absence of ART) ranged between 4.2% (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 1.9%-6.3%) and 47.4% (95% UI: 37.2%-69.0%) per person-year (ppy), with a median of 12.4%. ϕ was strongly associated with HIV prevalence, with a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.92, and was larger in high- versus low-HIV-prevalence countries. ϕ increased by 1.31% (95% confidence interval: 1.00%-1.55%) ppy for every 1% increase in HIV prevalence. ϕ estimates were similar to earlier estimates, and suggested considerable heterogeneity in HIV infectiousness across SSA. This heterogeneity may explain, partly, the differences in epidemic scales. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  8. Estimates of the Number of People Living with HIV in Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura Camoni

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective. To estimate the HIV prevalence and the number of people living with HIV (PLHIV in Italy with a projection for 2020. Methods. Two methods elaborated by Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS were used: Estimate and Projection Package and Spectrum. Results. A total of 123,000 (115,000–145,000 individuals aged 15 or more were estimated to be living with HIV in Italy at the end of 2012 and the estimated HIV prevalence was 0.28 (0.24–0.32 per 100 residents aged 15 or more. In 2012, the estimated number of new HIV infections among adults was 3,000 (2,700–4,000, and the number of adults in need for ART was 93,000 (80,000–110,000. The projection estimates that 130,000 (110,000–150,000 adults will live with HIV/AIDS in 2020 in Italy. Conclusion. Estimates of PLHIV in Italy stress the high number of PLHIV in need of care and treatment, as well as the need for more information and prevention campaigns.

  9. Incidence and risk factors of AIDS-defining cancers in a cohort of HIV-positive adults: Importance of the definition of incident cases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suárez-García, Inés; Jarrín, Inmaculada; Iribarren, José Antonio; López-Cortés, Luis Fernando; Lacruz-Rodrigo, José; Masiá, Mar; Gómez-Sirvent, Juan Luis; Hernández-Quero, José; Vidal, Francesc; Alejos-Ferreras, Belén; Moreno, Santiago; Del Amo, Julia

    2013-05-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate the incidence and risk factors for the development of AIDS-defining cancers (ADCs); and to investigate the effect of making different assumptions on the definition of incident cases. A multicentre cohort study was designed. Poisson regression was used to assess incidence and risk factors. To account for misclassification, incident cases were defined using lag-times of 0, 14 and 30 days after enrolment. A total of 6393 HIV-positive subjects were included in the study. The incidences of ADCs changed as the lag periods were varied from 0 to 30 days. Different risk factors emerged as the definition of incident cases was changed. For a lag time of 0, the risk of Kaposi sarcoma [KS] and non-Hodgkin lymphoma [NHL] increased at CD4 counts sex with men had a higher risk of KS. KS and NHL were not associated with viral load, gender, or hepatitis B or C. The results were similar for a lag-time of 14 and 30 days; however, hepatitis C was significantly associated with NHL. This analysis shows the importance of the definition of incident cases in cohort studies. Alternative definitions gave different incidence estimates, and may have implications for the analysis of risk factors. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier España, S.L. All rights reserved.

  10. Low bone mineral density and risk of incident fracture in HIV-infected adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Battalora, Linda; Buchacz, Kate; Armon, Carl; Overton, Edgar T; Hammer, John; Patel, Pragna; Chmiel, Joan S; Wood, Kathy; Bush, Timothy J; Spear, John R; Brooks, John T; Young, Benjamin

    2016-01-01

    Prevalence rates of low bone mineral density (BMD) and bone fractures are higher among HIV-infected adults compared with the general United States (US) population, but the relationship between BMD and incident fractures in HIV-infected persons has not been well described. Dual energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) results of the femoral neck of the hip and clinical data were obtained prospectively during 2004-2012 from participants in two HIV cohort studies. Low BMD was defined by a T-score in the interval >-2.5 to fractures, adjusted for sociodemographics, other risk factors and covariables, using multivariable proportional hazards regression. Among 1,006 participants analysed (median age 43 years [IQR 36-49], 83% male, 67% non-Hispanic white, median CD4(+) T-cell count 461 cells/mm(3) [IQR 311-658]), 36% (n=358) had osteopenia and 4% (n=37) osteoporosis; 67 had a prior fracture documented. During 4,068 person-years of observation after DXA scanning, 85 incident fractures occurred, predominantly rib/sternum (n=18), hand (n=14), foot (n=13) and wrist (n=11). In multivariable analyses, osteoporosis (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 4.02, 95% CI 2.02, 8.01) and current/prior tobacco use (aHR 1.59, 95% CI 1.02, 2.50) were associated with incident fracture. In this large sample of HIV-infected adults in the US, low baseline BMD was significantly associated with elevated risk of incident fracture. There is potential value of DXA screening in this population.

  11. Brief Report: Anal Cancer in the HIV-Positive Population: Slowly Declining Incidence After a Decade of cART

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Richel, Olivier; van der Zee, Ramon P.; Smit, Colette; de Vries, Henry J. C.; Prins, Jan M.

    2015-01-01

    We surveyed trends in incidence (1995-2012) and risk factors for anal cancer in the Dutch HIV-positive population. After an initial increase with a peak incidence in 2005-2006 of 114 [95% confidence interval (CI): 74 to 169] in all HIV+ patients and 168 (95% CI: 103 to 259) in HIV+ men who have sex

  12. The prevalence and incidence of active syphilis in women in Morocco, 1995-2016: Model-based estimation and implications for STI surveillance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennani, Aziza; El-Kettani, Amina; Hançali, Amina; El-Rhilani, Houssine; Alami, Kamal; Youbi, Mohamed; Rowley, Jane; Abu-Raddad, Laith; Smolak, Alex; Taylor, Melanie; Mahiané, Guy; Stover, John; Korenromp, Eline L

    2017-01-01

    Evolving health priorities and resource constraints mean that countries require data on trends in sexually transmitted infections (STI) burden, to inform program planning and resource allocation. We applied the Spectrum STI estimation tool to estimate the prevalence and incidence of active syphilis in adult women in Morocco over 1995 to 2016. The results from the analysis are being used to inform Morocco's national HIV/STI strategy, target setting and program evaluation. Syphilis prevalence levels and trends were fitted through logistic regression to data from surveys in antenatal clinics, women attending family planning clinics and other general adult populations, as available post-1995. Prevalence data were adjusted for diagnostic test performance, and for the contribution of higher-risk populations not sampled in surveys. Incidence was inferred from prevalence by adjusting for the average duration of infection with active syphilis. In 2016, active syphilis prevalence was estimated to be 0.56% in women 15 to 49 years of age (95% confidence interval, CI: 0.3%-1.0%), and around 21,675 (10,612-37,198) new syphilis infections have occurred. The analysis shows a steady decline in prevalence from 1995, when the prevalence was estimated to be 1.8% (1.0-3.5%). The decline was consistent with decreasing prevalences observed in TB patients, fishermen and prisoners followed over 2000-2012 through sentinel surveillance, and with a decline since 2003 in national HIV incidence estimated earlier through independent modelling. Periodic population-based surveys allowed Morocco to estimate syphilis prevalence and incidence trends. This first-ever undertaking engaged and focused national stakeholders, and confirmed the still considerable syphilis burden. The latest survey was done in 2012 and so the trends are relatively uncertain after 2012. From 2017 Morocco plans to implement a system to record data from routine antenatal programmatic screening, which should help update and re

  13. Distributions and trends in sexual behaviors and HIV incidence among men who have sex with men in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Lei; Chow, Eric P F; Wilson, David P

    2012-07-24

    HIV prevalence is increasing at a concerning rate among men who have sex with men (MSM) in China. Numerous studies have reported on levels of behaviors of Chinese MSM for different types of sexual partnerships, such as regular, non-commercial casual and commercial. This study aims to investigate the trends HIV incidence rates in relation to their risk sexual behaviors and partnership types among Chinese MSM. Through a comprehensive literature research from available English and Chinese literature databases, we collated relevant information of sexual behaviors of Chinese MSM. Further, with the utilization of a mathematical optimization approach, this study reconciles the distributions of sexual behavioral data over the last decade and infers the heterogeneous distributions of behavioral patterns among Chinese MSM. Distributions of high-risk behavioural indicators, including the number of sexual partners, number of sexual acts and condom usage in the past 6 months, are calibrated to available empirical data. Based on the resultant temporal trends in these distributions, the trends in HIV incidence rates associated with each type of partnership among MSM in China are also estimated. A total of 55 qualified articles have been identified. An average MSM has approximately 0.96 (95% CI, 0.59-1.18) regular, 3.75 (1.72-6.25) casual and 1.61 (0.97-2.78) commercial partners over a 6 month period and 4.33 (2.81-6.46), 1.42 (0.62-3.08), 1.48 (0.79-3.30) sexual acts per partnership respectively, corresponding to a total of 11.87 (8.87-15.25) acts. Condom usage has increased significantly during 2002-2010, at annual increases of 3.58% (2.98-4.12%), 5.55% (4.55-6.54%), and 5.03% (4.19-5.74%) for regular, casual and commercial partners respectively. These behavioral data implies an increase in HIV incidence of approximately 3.3-fold, from 2.04 (1.96-2.12) to 7.02 (6.71-7.35) per 1000 person-years during the same period. The proportion of new infections attributed to regular

  14. Incidence of HIV-associated tuberculosis among individuals taking combination antiretroviral therapy: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tendesayi Kufa

    Full Text Available Knowledge of tuberculosis incidence and associated factors is required for the development and evaluation of strategies to reduce the burden of HIV-associated tuberculosis.Systematic literature review and meta-analysis of tuberculosis incidence rates among HIV-infected individuals taking combination antiretroviral therapy.From PubMed, EMBASE and Global Index Medicus databases, 42 papers describing 43 cohorts (32 from high/intermediate and 11 from low tuberculosis burden settings were included in the qualitative review and 33 in the quantitative review. Cohorts from high/intermediate burden settings were smaller in size, had lower median CD4 cell counts at study entry and fewer person-years of follow up. Tuberculosis incidence rates were higher in studies from Sub-Saharan Africa and from World Bank low/middle income countries. Tuberculosis incidence rates decreased with increasing CD4 count at study entry and duration on combination antiretroviral therapy. Summary estimates of tuberculosis incidence among individuals on combination antiretroviral therapy were higher for cohorts from high/intermediate burden settings compared to those from the low tuberculosis burden settings (4.17 per 100 person-years [95% Confidence Interval (CI 3.39-5.14 per 100 person-years] vs. 0.4 per 100 person-years [95% CI 0.23-0.69 per 100 person-years] with significant heterogeneity observed between the studies.Tuberculosis incidence rates were high among individuals on combination antiretroviral therapy in high/intermediate burden settings. Interventions to prevent tuberculosis in this population should address geographical, socioeconomic and individual factors such as low CD4 counts and prior history of tuberculosis.

  15. HIV due to female sex work: regional and global estimates.

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    Annette Prüss-Ustün

    Full Text Available Female sex workers (FSWs are at high risk of HIV infection. Our objective was to determine the proportion of HIV prevalence in the general female adult population that is attributable to the occupational exposure of female sex work, due to unprotected sexual intercourse.Population attributable fractions of HIV prevalence due to female sex work were estimated for 2011. A systematic search was conducted to retrieve required input data from available sources. Data gaps of HIV prevalence in FSWs for 2011 were filled using multilevel modeling and multivariate linear regression. The fraction of HIV attributable to female sex work was estimated as the excess HIV burden in FSWs deducting the HIV burden in FSWs due to injecting drug use.An estimated fifteen percent of HIV in the general female adult population is attributable to (unsafe female sex work. The region with the highest attributable fraction is Sub Saharan Africa, but the burden is also substantial for the Caribbean, Latin America and South and Southeast Asia. We estimate 106,000 deaths from HIV are a result of female sex work globally, 98,000 of which occur in Sub-Saharan Africa. If HIV prevalence in other population groups originating from sexual contact with FSWs had been considered, the overall attributable burden would probably be much larger.Female sex work is an important contributor to HIV transmission and the global HIV burden. Effective HIV prevention measures exist and have been successfully targeted at key populations in many settings. These must be scaled up.FSWs suffer from high HIV burden and are a crucial core population for HIV transmission. Surveillance, prevention and treatment of HIV in FSWs should benefit both this often neglected vulnerable group and the general population.

  16. HIV Due to Female Sex Work: Regional and Global Estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prüss-Ustün, Annette; Wolf, Jennyfer; Driscoll, Tim; Degenhardt, Louisa; Neira, Maria; Calleja, Jesus Maria Garcia

    2013-01-01

    Introduction Female sex workers (FSWs) are at high risk of HIV infection. Our objective was to determine the proportion of HIV prevalence in the general female adult population that is attributable to the occupational exposure of female sex work, due to unprotected sexual intercourse. Methods Population attributable fractions of HIV prevalence due to female sex work were estimated for 2011. A systematic search was conducted to retrieve required input data from available sources. Data gaps of HIV prevalence in FSWs for 2011 were filled using multilevel modeling and multivariate linear regression. The fraction of HIV attributable to female sex work was estimated as the excess HIV burden in FSWs deducting the HIV burden in FSWs due to injecting drug use. Results An estimated fifteen percent of HIV in the general female adult population is attributable to (unsafe) female sex work. The region with the highest attributable fraction is Sub Saharan Africa, but the burden is also substantial for the Caribbean, Latin America and South and Southeast Asia. We estimate 106,000 deaths from HIV are a result of female sex work globally, 98,000 of which occur in Sub-Saharan Africa. If HIV prevalence in other population groups originating from sexual contact with FSWs had been considered, the overall attributable burden would probably be much larger. Discussion Female sex work is an important contributor to HIV transmission and the global HIV burden. Effective HIV prevention measures exist and have been successfully targeted at key populations in many settings. These must be scaled up. Conclusion FSWs suffer from high HIV burden and are a crucial core population for HIV transmission. Surveillance, prevention and treatment of HIV in FSWs should benefit both this often neglected vulnerable group and the general population. PMID:23717432

  17. Risk factors for incident HIV infection among antenatal mothers in rural Eastern Cape, South Africa

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    Charles Bitamazire Businge

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: The prevalence of HIV among antenatal clients in South Africa has remained at a very high rate of about 29% despite substantial decline in several sub-Saharan countries. There is a paucity of data on risk factors for incident HIV infection among antenatal mothers and women within the reproductive age bracket in local settings in the Eastern Cape, South Africa. Objective: To establish the risk factors for incident HIV infection among antenatal clients aged 18–49 years attending public antenatal clinics in rural Eastern Cape, South Africa. Design: This was an unmatched case–control study carried out in public health antenatal clinics of King Sabata District Municipality between January and March 2014. The cases comprised 100 clients with recent HIV infection; the controls were 200 HIV-negative antenatal clients. Socio-demographic, sexual, and behavioral data were collected using interviewer-administered questionnaires adapted from the standard DHS5 women's questionnaire. Multivariate logistic regression models were used to identify the independent risk factors for HIV infection. A p<0.05 was considered statistically significant. Results: The independent risk factors for incident HIV infection were economic dependence on the partner, having older male partners especially among women aged ≤20 years, and sex under the influence of alcohol. Conclusions: Therefore, effective prevention of HIV among antenatal mothers in KSDM must target the improvement of the economic status of women, thereby reducing economic dependence on their sexual partners; address the prevalent phenomenon of cross-generation sex among women aged <20 years; and regulate the brewing, marketing, and consumption of alcohol.

  18. Comparing HIV prevalence estimates from prevention of mother-to-child HIV transmission programme and the antenatal HIV surveillance in Addis Ababa

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    Mirkuzie Alemnesh H

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In the absence of reliable data, antenatal HIV surveillance has been used to monitor the HIV epidemic since the late 1980s. Currently, routine data from Prevention of Mother-to-child HIV transmission (PMTCT programmes are increasingly available. Evaluating whether the PMTCT programme reports provide comparable HIV prevalence estimates with the antenatal surveillance reports is important. In this study, we compared HIV prevalence estimates from routine PMTCT programme and antenatal surveillance in Addis Ababa with the aim to come up with evidence based recommendation. Methods Summary data were collected from PMTCT programmes and antenatal surveillance reports within the catchment of Addis Ababa. The PMTCT programme data were obtained from routine monthly reports from 2004 to 2009 and from published antenatal HIV surveillance reports from 2003 to 2009. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics. Results In Addis Ababa, PMTCT sites had increased from six in 2004 to 54 in 2009. The site expansion was accompanied by an increased number of women testing. There were marked increases in the rate of HIV testing following the introduction of routine opt-out HIV testing approach. Paralleling these increases, the HIV prevalence showed a steady decline from 10.0% in 2004 to 4.5% in 2009. There were five antenatal surveillance sites from 2003 to 2007 in Addis Ababa and they increased to seven by 2009. Four rounds of surveillance data from five sites showed a declining trend in HIV prevalence over the years. The overall antenatal surveillance data also showed that the HIV prevalence among antenatal attendees had declined from 12.4% in 2003 to 5.5% in 2009. The HIV prevalence estimates from PMTCT programme were 6.2% and 4.5% and from antenatal surveillance 6.1 and 5.5% in 2008 and 2009 respectively. Conclusions There were consistent HIV prevalence estimates from PMTCT programme and from antenatal surveillance reports. Both data sources

  19. Incidence of HIV-1 infection and changes in prevalence of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Sexual risk behaviours and RTIs may have contributed to HIV-1 transmission in this community. The data collected may help to inform the future design and evaluation of various intervention measures. Keywords: Africa, bacterial vaginosis, candidiasis, chlamydia, epidemiological synergy, gonorrhoea, incidence, sequelae

  20. Assessing the impact of mass rape on the incidence of HIV in conflict-affected countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Supervie, Virginie; Halima, Yasmin; Blower, Sally

    2010-11-27

    To quantify the potential impact of mass rape on HIV incidence in seven conflict-afflicted countries (CACs), with severe HIV epidemics, in sub-Saharan Africa. Uncertainty analysis of a risk equation model. A mathematical model was used to evaluate the potential impact of mass rape on increasing HIV incidence in women and girls in Burundi, Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Rwanda, Sierra Leone, Somalia, southern Sudan and Uganda. The model was parameterized with data from UNAIDS/WHO and the US Census Bureau's International Database. Incidence data from UNAIDS/WHO were used for calibration. Mass rape could cause approximately five HIV infections per 100,000 females per year in the DRC, Sudan, Somalia and Sierra Leone, double the number in Burundi and Rwanda, and quadruple the number in Uganda. The number of females infected per year due to mass rape is likely to be relatively low in Somalia and Sierra Leone at 127 [median (interquartile range [IQR] 55-254)] and 156 [median (IQR 69-305)], respectively. Numbers could be high in the DRC and Uganda: 1120 [median (IQR 527-2360)] and 2172 [median (IQR 1031-4668)], respectively. In Burundi, Rwanda and Sudan, the numbers are likely to be intermediate. Under extreme conditions, 10,000 women and girls could be infected per year in the DRC and 20 000 women and girls could be infected per year in Uganda. Mass rape could increase annual incidence by approximately 7% [median (IQR 3-15)]. Interventions and treatment targeted to rape survivors during armed conflicts could reduce HIV incidence. Support should be provided both on the basis of human rights and public health.

  1. Research protocol for an epidemiological study on estimating disease burden of pediatric HIV in Belgaum district, India

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    Anju Sinha

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Pediatric HIV is poised to become a major public health problem in India with the rising trend of HIV infection in pregnant women (Department of AIDS Control, Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, http://www.naco.gov.in. There is lack of information on the epidemiology of pediatric HIV infection in India. Existing surveillance systems tend to underestimate the Pediatric burden. The overall aim of the present study is to estimate the disease burden of pediatric HIV among children in Belgaum district in the state of Karnataka in Southern India. An innovative multipronged epidemiological approach to comb the district is proposed. Methods The primary objectives of the study would be attained under three strategies. A prospective cohort design for objective (i to determine the incidence rate of HIV by early case detection in infants and toddlers (0–18 months born to HIV infected pregnant women; and cross sectional design for objectives (ii to determine the prevalence of HIV infection in children (0–14 years of HIV infected parents and (iii to determine the prevalence of HIV in sick children (0–14 years presenting with suspected signs and symptoms using age specific criteria for screening. Burden of pediatric HIV will be calculated as a product of cases detected in each strategy multiplied by a net inflation factor for each strategy. Study participants (i (ii (iii: HIV infected pregnant women and their live born children (ii Any HIV-infected man/woman, of age 18–49 years, having a biological child of age 0–14 years (iii Sick children of age 0–14 years presenting with suspected signs and symptoms and satisfying age-specific criteria for screening. Setting and conduct: Belgaum district which is a Category ‘A’ district (with more than 1 % antenatal prevalence in the district over the last 3 years before the study. Age-appropriate testing is used to detect HIV infection. Discussion There is a need to strengthen

  2. Research protocol for an epidemiological study on estimating disease burden of pediatric HIV in Belgaum district, India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sinha, Anju; Nath, Anita; Sethumadhavan, Rajeev; Isac, Shajy; Washington, Reynold

    2016-05-26

    Pediatric HIV is poised to become a major public health problem in India with the rising trend of HIV infection in pregnant women (Department of AIDS Control, Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, http://www.naco.gov.in). There is lack of information on the epidemiology of pediatric HIV infection in India. Existing surveillance systems tend to underestimate the Pediatric burden. The overall aim of the present study is to estimate the disease burden of pediatric HIV among children in Belgaum district in the state of Karnataka in Southern India. An innovative multipronged epidemiological approach to comb the district is proposed. The primary objectives of the study would be attained under three strategies. A prospective cohort design for objective (i) to determine the incidence rate of HIV by early case detection in infants and toddlers (0-18 months) born to HIV infected pregnant women; and cross sectional design for objectives (ii) to determine the prevalence of HIV infection in children (0-14 years) of HIV infected parents and (iii) to determine the prevalence of HIV in sick children (0-14 years) presenting with suspected signs and symptoms using age specific criteria for screening. Burden of pediatric HIV will be calculated as a product of cases detected in each strategy multiplied by a net inflation factor for each strategy. Study participants (i) (ii) (iii): HIV infected pregnant women and their live born children (ii) Any HIV-infected man/woman, of age 18-49 years, having a biological child of age 0-14 years (iii) Sick children of age 0-14 years presenting with suspected signs and symptoms and satisfying age-specific criteria for screening. Setting and conduct: Belgaum district which is a Category 'A' district (with more than 1 % antenatal prevalence in the district over the last 3 years before the study). Age-appropriate testing is used to detect HIV infection. There is a need to strengthen existing pediatric HIV estimation methods in India and other

  3. Analysis of an HIV/AIDS treatment model with a nonlinear incidence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cai Liming; Wu Jingang

    2009-01-01

    An HIV/AIDS treatment model with a nonlinear incidence is formulated. The infectious period is partitioned into the asymptotic and the symptomatic phases according to clinical stages. The constant recruitment rate, disease-induced death, drug therapies, as well as a nonlinear incidence, are incorporated into the model. The basic reproduction number R 0 of the model is determined by the method of next generation matrix. Mathematical analysis establishes that the global dynamics of the spread of the HIV infectious disease are completely determined by the basic reproduction number R 0 . If R 0 ≤1, the disease always dies out and the disease-free equilibrium is globally stable. If R 0 >1, the disease persists and the unique endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable in the interior of the feasible region.

  4. Incidence of tuberculosis meningitis in a high HIV prevalence setting: time-series analysis from 2006 to 2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaya, S; Dangor, Z; Solomon, F; Nzenze, S A; Izu, A; Madhi, S A

    2016-11-01

    This study was undertaken at a tertiary hospital in Soweto, a peri-urban low-middle income setting. Mycobacterium tuberculosis meningitis (TBM) is a severe manifestation of extra-pulmonary tuberculosis. To describe the incidence, mortality and clinical features of TBM in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infected and non-infected children in South Africa from 2006 to 2011. A retrospective, cross-sectional descriptive study. Electronic databases and individual patient records of all children with a discharge diagnosis of TBM were reviewed to yield incidence rate ratios (IRR) in HIV-infected and non-infected children. Clinical, laboratory and radiological characteristics were compared between HIV-infected and non-infected children with TBM. Overall TBM incidence per 100 000 population in 2006 was 6.9 (95%CI 4.4-10.3) and 9.8 (95%CI 6.9-13.6) in 2009, but had subsequently declined to 3.1 (95%CI 1.6-5.5) by 2011. There was a significant reduction in the IRR of TBM among HIV-infected children (IRR 0.916, P = 0.036). The overall case fatality ratio was 6.7%. Clinical features, cerebrospinal fluid and computed tomography brain findings were similar in HIV-infected and non-infected children. TBM incidence decreased over the study period from 2006 to 2011, and was temporally associated with an increase in the uptake of antiretroviral treatment in HIV-infected individuals.

  5. HIV in hiding: methods and data requirements for the estimation of the number of people living with undiagnosed HIV

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lundgren, Jens

    2011-01-01

    Many people who are HIV positive are unaware of their infection status. Estimation of the number of people with undiagnosed HIV within a country or region is vital for understanding future need for treatment and for motivating testing programs. We review the available estimation approaches which...... are in current use. They can be broadly classified into those based on prevalence surveys and those based on reported HIV and AIDS cases. Estimation based on prevalence data requires data from regular prevalence surveys in different population groups together with estimates of the size of these groups....... The recommended minimal case reporting data needed to estimate the number of patients with undiagnosed HIV are HIV diagnoses, including CD4 count at diagnosis and whether there has been an AIDS diagnosis in the 3 months before or after HIV diagnosis, and data on deaths in people with HIV. We would encourage all...

  6. Incidence of low- and high-energy fractures in persons with and without HIV-infection: a Danish population-based cohort study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Ann-Brit E; Gerstoft, Jan; Kronborg, Gitte

    2012-01-01

    significantly increased after HAART-exposure, IRR of 1.8 (95% CI; 1.5-2.1). The increased risk in HAART-exposed patients was not associated with CD4 cell count, prior AIDS, tenofovir or efavirenz exposure, but with comorbidity and smoking. CONCLUSIONS:: HIV-infected patients had increased risk of fracture......OBJECTIVE:: To compare fracture risk in persons with and without HIV-infection and to examine the influence of HAART initiation on risk of fracture. DESIGN:: Population-based nationwide cohort study using Danish registries. METHODS:: Outcome measures were time to first fracture at any site, time...... to first low-energy and high-energy fracture in HIV-infected patients (n¿=¿5,306) compared with a general population control cohort (n¿=¿26,530) matched by sex and age during the study period 1995 to 2009. Cox regression analyses were used to estimate incidence rate ratios (IRR). RESULTS:: HIV-infected...

  7. Stable incidence of HIV diagnoses among Danish MSM despite increased engagement in unsafe sex

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cowan, Susan Alice; Gerstoft, Jan; Haff, Jakob

    2012-01-01

    Since introduction of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART), the prevalence of Danish HIV-positive men who have sex with men (MSM) has increased substantially. In contrast, the incidence of MSM diagnosed with HIV has not increased, and this paradox has been the focus of intensive debate....

  8. Soluble CD163 predicts incident chronic lung, kidney and liver disease in HIV infection

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kirkegaard-Klitbo, Ditte M; Mejer, Niels; Knudsen, Troels B

    2017-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To examine if monocyte and macrophage activity may be on the mechanistic pathway to non-AIDS comorbidity by investigating the associations between plasma-soluble CD163 (sCD163) and incident non-AIDS comorbidities in well treated HIV-infected individuals. DESIGN: Prospective single...... was examined using multivariable Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for pertinent covariates. RESULTS: In HIV-1-infected individuals (n = 799), the highest quartile of plasma sCD163 was associated with incident chronic lung disease [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR), 3.2; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.34; 7.......46] and incident chronic kidney disease (aHR, 10.94; 95% CI: 2.32; 51.35), when compared with lowest quartiles. Further, (every 1 mg) increase in plasma sCD163 was positively correlated with incident liver disease (aHR, 1.12; 95% CI: 1.05; 1.19). The sCD163 level was not associated with incident cancer...

  9. INCIDENCE AND CLINICAL FEATURES OF TUBERCULOSIS IN HIV-INFECTED CHILDREN IN THE SVERDLOVSK REGION

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    N. V. Eismont

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper analyzes the structure of HIV-infected children who was ill with tuberculosis in the Sverdlovsk Region in 2004-2012. The incidence of tuberculosis in children aged 0 to 14 years in the Sverdlovsk Region showed a 79.4% increase in the above period due to the introduction of Russian innovative technologies for the diagnosis of this disease in children. At the same time there was a rise in both the number of HIV-infected children aged 0 to 14 years and the proportion of same-age children with late-stage HIV infection. Simultaneously, the incidence of tuberculosis in the non-HIV-infected children aged 0 to 14 years was 55.2-193.2 times lower than that in the HIV-infected children. In 2004-2014, the Sverdlovsk Region notified fewer new cases of tuberculosis among the children without HIV infection than among those with its late stages. Non-HIV-infected children of both sexes were also ill with tuberculosis less frequently than HIV-infected boys and girls. HIV-infected children 1-3 and 7-14 years of age proved to be most vulnerable to tuberculosis. Among those who fell ill with tuberculosis, there was a preponderance of patients with late-stage HIV infection; moreover, the majority (79.6% received highly active antiretroviral therapy. 63.3% of the cases were in contact with a tuberculosis patient, only every five patients had chemoprophylaxis for this disease. High-quality vaccination against tuberculosis prevented complications and bacterial excretion in children with comorbidity. Out of the clinical forms of tuberculosis in children with HIV infection, there was a predominance of primary tuberculous complex and intrathoracic lymph node tuberculosis. The latter was less common in children without HIV infection than in those with this disease; the same was true of bacterial excretion in respiratory tuberculosis.

  10. The incidence of HIV among women recruited during late pregnancy and followed up for six years after childbirth in Zimbabwe

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    Chirenje Mike Z

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background HIV incidence is a useful tool for improving the targeting of populations for interventions and assessing the effectiveness of prevention strategies. A study in Harare, Zimbabwe reported cumulative incidences of 3.4% (3.0-3.8 and 6.5% (5.7-7.4 among post-partum women followed for 12 and 24 months respectively between 1997 and 2001. According to a Government report on HIV the prevalence of HIV fell from about 30% in 1999 to 14% in 2008. The purpose of this study was to determine the incidence of HIV-1 among women enrolled during late pregnancy and followed for six years after childbirth and to identify risk factors associated with acquisition of HIV. Methods HIV-uninfected pregnant women around 36 weeks gestation were enrolled from primary health care clinics in peri-urban settlements around Harare and followed-up for up to six years after childbirth. At every visit a questionnaire was interview-administered to obtain socio-demographic data and sexual history since the previous visit. A genital examination was performed followed by the collection of biological samples. Results Of the 552 HIV-uninfected women 444 (80.4% were seen at least twice during the six years follow-up and 39 acquired HIV, resulting in an incidence (95% CI of 2.3/100 woman-years-at-risk (wyar (1.1-4.1. The incidence over the first nine months post-partum was 5.7/100 wyar (3.3-8.1. A greater proportion of teenagers (15.3% contributed to a high incidence rate of 2.9/100 (0.6-8.7 wyar. In multivariate analysis lower education of participant, RR 2.1 (1.1-4.3 remained significantly associated with HIV acquisition. Other risk factors associated with acquisition of HIV-1 in univariate analysis were young age at sexual debut, RR 2.3, (1.0-5.6 and having children with different fathers, RR 2.7(1.3-5.8. Women that knew that their partners had other sexual partners were about four times more likely to acquire HIV, RR 3.8 (1.3-11.2. Conclusion The incidence of HIV

  11. Correlates of injecting in an HIV incidence hotspot among substance users in Tijuana, Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kori, Nana; Roth, Alexis M; Lozada, Remedios; Vera, Alicia; Brouwer, Kimberly C

    2014-05-01

    Substance use and HIV are growing problems in the Mexico-U.S. border city of Tijuana, a sex tourism destination situated on a northbound drug trafficking route. In a previous longitudinal study of injection drug users (IDUs), we found that >90% of incident HIV cases occurred within an 'HIV incidence hotspot,' consisting of 2.5-blocks. This study examines behavioral, social, and environmental correlates associated with injecting in this HIV hotspot. From 4/06 to 6/07, IDUs aged ≥18 years were recruited using respondent-driven sampling. Participants underwent antibody testing for HIV and syphilis and interviewer-administered surveys eliciting information on demographics, drug use, sexual behaviors, and socio-environmental influences. Participants were defined as injecting in the hotspot if they most frequently injected within a 3 standard deviational ellipse of the cohort's incident HIV cases. Logistic regression was used to identify individual and structural factors associated with the HIV 'hotspot'. Of 1031 IDUs, the median age was 36 years; 85% were male; HIV prevalence was 4%. As bivariate analysis indicated different correlates for males and females, models were stratified by sex. Factors independently associated with injecting in the HIV hotspot for male IDUs included homelessness (AOR 1.72; 95%CI 1.14-2.6), greater intra-urban mobility (AOR 3.26; 95%CI 1.67-6.38), deportation (AOR 1.58; 95%CI 1.18-2.12), active syphilis (AOR 3.03; 95%CI 1.63-5.62), needle sharing (AOR 0.57; 95%CI 0.42-0.78), various police interactions, perceived HIV infection risk (AOR 1.52; 95%CI 1.13-2.03), and health insurance status (AOR 0.53; 95%CI 0.33-0.87). For female IDUs, significant factors included sex work (AOR 8.2; 95%CI 2.2-30.59), lifetime syphilis exposure (AOR 2.73; 95%CI 1.08-6.93), injecting inside (AOR 5.26; 95%CI 1.54-17.92), arrests for sterile syringe possession (AOR 4.87; 95%I 1.56-15.15), prior HIV testing (AOR 2.45; 95%CI 1.04-5.81), and health insurance status

  12. The prevalence and incidence of active syphilis in women in Morocco, 1995-2016: Model-based estimation and implications for STI surveillance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennani, Aziza; El-Kettani, Amina; Hançali, Amina; El-Rhilani, Houssine; Alami, Kamal; Youbi, Mohamed; Rowley, Jane; Abu-Raddad, Laith; Smolak, Alex; Taylor, Melanie; Mahiané, Guy; Stover, John

    2017-01-01

    Background Evolving health priorities and resource constraints mean that countries require data on trends in sexually transmitted infections (STI) burden, to inform program planning and resource allocation. We applied the Spectrum STI estimation tool to estimate the prevalence and incidence of active syphilis in adult women in Morocco over 1995 to 2016. The results from the analysis are being used to inform Morocco’s national HIV/STI strategy, target setting and program evaluation. Methods Syphilis prevalence levels and trends were fitted through logistic regression to data from surveys in antenatal clinics, women attending family planning clinics and other general adult populations, as available post-1995. Prevalence data were adjusted for diagnostic test performance, and for the contribution of higher-risk populations not sampled in surveys. Incidence was inferred from prevalence by adjusting for the average duration of infection with active syphilis. Results In 2016, active syphilis prevalence was estimated to be 0.56% in women 15 to 49 years of age (95% confidence interval, CI: 0.3%-1.0%), and around 21,675 (10,612–37,198) new syphilis infections have occurred. The analysis shows a steady decline in prevalence from 1995, when the prevalence was estimated to be 1.8% (1.0–3.5%). The decline was consistent with decreasing prevalences observed in TB patients, fishermen and prisoners followed over 2000–2012 through sentinel surveillance, and with a decline since 2003 in national HIV incidence estimated earlier through independent modelling. Conclusions Periodic population-based surveys allowed Morocco to estimate syphilis prevalence and incidence trends. This first-ever undertaking engaged and focused national stakeholders, and confirmed the still considerable syphilis burden. The latest survey was done in 2012 and so the trends are relatively uncertain after 2012. From 2017 Morocco plans to implement a system to record data from routine antenatal

  13. Incidence and risk factors for invasive pneumococcal disease in HIV-infected and non-HIV-infected individuals before and after the introduction of combination antiretroviral therapy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Harboe, Zitta Barrella; Larsen, Mette; Ladelund, Steen

    2014-01-01

    with an increased risk of IPD. Detectable viral loads (RR, 1.88 [95% CI, 1.79-1.98]) and a relative fall in CD4 T-cell counts were also associated with an increased risk (≥500 to 350-500 CD4 T cells/µL: RR, 1.29 [95% CI, 1.21-1.37] and risk of IPD declined over time......BACKGROUND: Invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) is an important cause of morbidity among individuals infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). We described incidence and risk factors for IPD in HIV-infected and uninfected individuals. METHODS: Nationwide population-based cohort study of HIV......-infected adults treated at all Danish HIV treatment centers during 1995-2012. Nineteen population-matched controls per HIV-infected individual were retrieved. The risk of IPD was assessed using Poisson regression. RESULTS: The incidence of IPD was 304.7 cases per 100 000 person-years of follow-up (PYFU) in HIV...

  14. HIV incidence and risk factors in Chinese young men who have sex with men--a prospective cohort study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhenxin Dong

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVES: To assess HIV incidence and its associated risk factors among young men who have sex with men (YMSM in urban areas, China. DESIGN: The study used a prospective cohort study design and standard diagnostic tests. METHODS: A twelve-month prospective cohort study was conducted among YMSM (18-25 years old in 8 large cities in China. The participants were recruited via snowball sampling. A total of 1102 HIV-negative YMSM completed baseline assessment, 878 YMSM participants completed 6-month follow-up, and 902 completed 12-month follow-up. HIV was screened by an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and confirmed with Western Blot. Syphilis was screened via rapid plasma reagent and confirmed by treponema pallidum particle agglutination assay. RESULTS: 78 HIV seroconversions were identified within 1168.4 person-year observations yielding an incidence rate of 6.7 per 100 person-years. HIV seroconversion was associated with non-student status (RR = 2.61, 90% CI = 1.3-5.26, low HIV transmission knowledge (RR = 8.87, 90% CI = 2.16-36.43, and syphilis infection (RR = 5.04, 90% CI = 2.57-9.90. CONCLUSIONS: Incidence of HIV among YMSM is high in urban areas of China. Interventions measures are required to contain the HIV epidemic within this population.

  15. Incidence of cervical dysplasia and cervical cancer in women living with HIV in Denmark: comparison with the general population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thorsteinsson, K; Ladelund, S; Jensen-Fangel, S; Katzenstein, T L; Johansen, I Somuncu; Pedersen, G; Junge, J; Helleberg, M; Storgaard, M; Obel, N; Lebech, A-M

    2016-01-01

    Women living with HIV (WLWH) are reportedly at increased risk of invasive cervical cancer (ICC). A recent publication found that WLWH in Denmark attend the national ICC screening programme less often than women in the general population. We aimed to estimate the incidence of cervical dysplasia and ICC in WLWH in Denmark compared with that in women in the general population. We studied a nationwide cohort of WLWH and a cohort of 15 age-matched women per WLWH from the general population for the period 1999-2010. Pathology samples were obtained from The Danish Pathology Data Bank, which contains nationwide records of all pathology specimens. The cumulative incidence and hazard ratios (HRs) for time from inclusion to first cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN)/ICC and time from first normal cervical cytology result to first CIN/ICC were estimated. Sensitivity analyses were performed to include prior screening outcome, screening intensity and treatment of CIN/ICC in the interpretation of results. We followed 1140 WLWH and 17 046 controls with no prior history of ICC or hysterectomy for 9491 and 156 865 person-years, respectively. Compared with controls, the overall incidences of CIN1 or worse (CIN1+), CIN2+ and CIN3+, but not ICC, were higher in WLWH and predicted by young age and a CD4 count < 200 cells/μL. In women with normal baseline cytology, incidences of CIN1+ and CIN2+ were higher in WLWH. However, when we compared subgroups of WLWH and controls where women in both groups were adherent to the national ICC screening programme and had a normal baseline cytology, incidences of CIN and ICC were comparable. Overall, WLWH developed more cervical disease than controls. Yet, in WLWH and controls adherent to the national ICC screening programme and with normal baseline cytology, incidences of CIN and ICC were comparable. © 2015 British HIV Association.

  16. Incidence and predictors of tuberculosis among HIV-infected adults after initiation of antiretroviral therapy in Nigeria, 2004-2012.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ishani Pathmanathan

    Full Text Available Nigeria had the most AIDS-related deaths worldwide in 2014 (170,000, and 46% were associated with tuberculosis (TB. Although treatment of people living with HIV (PLHIV with antiretroviral therapy (ART reduces TB-associated morbidity and mortality, incident TB can occur while on ART. We estimated incidence and characterized factors associated with TB after ART initiation in Nigeria.We analyzed retrospective cohort data from a nationally representative sample of adult patients on ART. Data were abstracted from 3,496 patient records, and analyses were weighted and controlled for a complex survey design. We performed domain analyses on patients without documented TB disease and used a Cox proportional hazard model to assess factors associated with TB incidence after ART.At ART initiation, 3,350 patients (95.8% were not receiving TB treatment. TB incidence after ART initiation was 0.57 per 100 person-years, and significantly higher for patients with CD4<50/μL (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR]: 4.2, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.4-12.7 compared with CD4≥200/μL. Patients with suspected but untreated TB at ART initiation and those with a history of prior TB were more likely to develop incident TB (AHR: 12.2, 95% CI: 4.5-33.5 and AHR: 17.6, 95% CI: 3.5-87.9, respectively.Incidence of TB among PLHIV after ART initiation was low, and predicted by advanced HIV, prior TB, and suspected but untreated TB. Study results suggest a need for improved TB screening and diagnosis, particularly among high-risk PLHIV initiating ART, and reinforce the benefit of early ART and other TB prevention efforts.

  17. Incidence and associated factors to adverse reactions of the initial antiretroviral treatment in patients with HIV

    OpenAIRE

    Astuvilca, Juan; Facultad de Medicina, Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos. Lima, Perú. Sociedad Científica de San Fernando. Lima, Perú. Estudiantes de medicina.; Arce-Villavicencio, Yanet; Facultad de Medicina, Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos. Lima, Perú. Sociedad Científica de San Fernando. Lima, Perú. Estudiantes de medicina.; Sotelo, Raúl; Facultad de Medicina, Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos. Lima, Perú. Sociedad Científica de San Fernando. Lima, Perú. Estudiantes de medicina.; Quispe, José; Facultad de Medicina, Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos. Lima, Perú. Sociedad Científica de San Fernando. Lima, Perú. Estudiantes de medicina.; Guillén, Regina; Facultad de Medicina, Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos. Lima, Perú. Estudiantes de medicina.; Peralta, Lillian; Facultad de Medicina, Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos. Lima, Perú. Estudiantes de medicina.; Huaringa, Jorge; Facultad de Medicina, Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos. Lima, Perú. Estudiantes de medicina.; Gutiérrez, César; Departamento Académico de Medicina Preventiva y Salud Pública, Facultad de Medicina, Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos. Lima-Perú. Médico epidemiólogo.

    2007-01-01

    The high incidence of adverse reactions to the high activity antiretroviral treatment (HAART) in patients with HIV/AIDS, can affect their quality of life and adherence to the treatment. Objectives: To determinate the incidence of adverse reactions to the initial HAART and to identify the factors associated to the occurrence of adverse reactions when receiving this therapy. Material and methods: Historic cohort study. The population was conformed by all the HIV-infected adult patients (≥18...

  18. Use of surveillance data on HIV diagnoses with HIV-related symptoms to estimate the number of people living with undiagnosed HIV in need of antiretroviral therapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lodwick, Rebecca K; Nakagawa, Fumiyo; van Sighem, Ard; Sabin, Caroline A; Phillips, Andrew N

    2015-01-01

    It is important to have methods available to estimate the number of people who have undiagnosed HIV and are in need of antiretroviral therapy (ART). The method uses the concept that a predictable level of occurrence of AIDS or other HIV-related clinical symptoms which lead to presentation for care, and hence diagnosis of HIV, arises in undiagnosed people with a given CD4 count. The method requires surveillance data on numbers of new HIV diagnoses with HIV-related symptoms, and the CD4 count at diagnosis. The CD4 count-specific rate at which HIV-related symptoms develop are estimated from cohort data. 95% confidence intervals can be constructed using a simple simulation method. For example, if there were 13 HIV diagnoses with HIV-related symptoms made in one year with CD4 count at diagnosis between 150-199 cells/mm3, then since the CD4 count-specific rate of HIV-related symptoms is estimated as 0.216 per person-year, the estimated number of person years lived in people with undiagnosed HIV with CD4 count 150-199 cells/mm3 is 13/0.216 = 60 (95% confidence interval: 29-100), which is considered an estimate of the number of people living with undiagnosed HIV in this CD4 count stratum. The method is straightforward to implement within a short period once a surveillance system of all new HIV diagnoses, collecting data on HIV-related symptoms at diagnosis, is in place and is most suitable for estimating the number of undiagnosed people with CD4 count HIV-related symptoms at higher CD4 counts. A potential source of bias is under-diagnosis and under-reporting of diagnoses with HIV-related symptoms. Although this method has limitations as with all approaches, it is important for prompting increased efforts to identify undiagnosed people, particularly those with low CD4 count, and for informing levels of unmet need for ART.

  19. Longitudinal trends of recent HIV-1 infections in Slovenia (1986-2012) determined using an incidence algorithm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lunar, Maja M; Matković, Ivana; Tomažič, Janez; Vovko, Tomaž D; Pečavar, Blaž; Poljak, Mario

    2015-09-01

    Resolving dilemma whether the rise in the number of HIV diagnoses represents an actual increase in HIV transmissions or is a result of improved HIV surveillance is crucial before implementing national HIV prevention strategies. Annual proportions of recent infections (RI) among newly diagnosed persons infected with HIV-1 in Slovenia during 27 years (1986-2012) were determined using an algorithm consisting of routine baseline CD4 and HIV viral load measurements and the Aware BED EIA HIV-1 Incidence Test (BED test). The study included the highest coverage of persons diagnosed with HIV during the entire duration of an HIV epidemic in a given country/region (71%). Out of 416 patients, 170 (40.9%) had a baseline CD4 cell count less than 200 cells/mm(3) and/or HIV-1 viral load less than 400 copies/ml and were characterized as having a long-standing infection (LSI). The remaining 246 patients were additionally tested using the BED test. Overall, 23% (97/416) of the patients were labeled RI. The characteristics significantly associated with RI were as follows: younger age, acute retroviral syndrome, CDC class A and other than C, no AIDS defining illnesses, HIV test performed in the past, a higher viral load, and a higher CD4 cell count. An interesting trend in the proportion of RI was observed, with a peak in 2005 (47% of RI) and the lowest point in 2008 (12%) in parallel with a rise in the numbers of new HIV diagnoses. This study could help promote the idea of introducing periodic HIV incidence monitoring using a simple and affordable algorithm. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  20. The effect of incident tuberculosis on immunological response of HIV patients on highly active anti-retroviral therapy at the university of Gondar hospital, northwest Ethiopia: a retrospective follow-up study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Assefa, Abate; Gelaw, Baye; Getnet, Gebeyaw; Yitayew, Gashaw

    2014-08-27

    Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection is usually complicated by high rates of tuberculosis (TB) co-infection. Impaired immune response has been reported during HIV/TB co-infection and may have significant effect on anti-retroviral therapy (ART). TB/HIV co - infection is a major public health problem in Ethiopia. Therefore, the aim of the study was to assess the effect of TB incidence on immunological response of HIV patients during ART. A retrospective follow-up study was conducted among adult HIV patients who started ART at the University of Gondar Hospital. Changes in CD4+ T - lymphocyte count and incident TB episodes occurring during 42 months of follow up on ART were assessed. Life table was used to estimate the cumulative immunologic failure. Kaplan-Meier curve was used to compare survival curves between the different categories. Cox-proportional hazard model was employed to examine predictors of immunological failure. Among 400 HIV patients, 89(22.2%) were found to have immunological failure with a rate of 8.5 per 100 person-years (PY) of follow-up. Incident TB developed in 26(6.5%) of patients, with an incidence rate of 2.2 cases per 100 PY. The immunological failure rate was high (20.1/100PY) at the first year of treatment. At multivariate analysis, Cox regression analysis showed that baseline CD4+ T - cell count immunological failure. There was borderline significant association with incident TB (AHR 2.2; 95%CI: 0.94 - 5.09, p = 0.06). The risk of immunological failure was significantly higher (38.5%) among those with incident TB compared with TB - free (21.1%) (Log rank p = 0.036). High incidence of immunological failure occurred within the first year of initiating ART. The proportions of patients with impaired immune restoration were higher among patients with incident TB. Lower baseline CD4+ T - cells count of immunological failure. The result highlighted the beneficial effects of earlier initiation of ART on CD4+ T - cell count recovery.

  1. Estimating the global incidence of traumatic spinal cord injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fitzharris, M; Cripps, R A; Lee, B B

    2014-02-01

    Population modelling--forecasting. To estimate the global incidence of traumatic spinal cord injury (TSCI). An initiative of the International Spinal Cord Society (ISCoS) Prevention Committee. Regression techniques were used to derive regional and global estimates of TSCI incidence. Using the findings of 31 published studies, a regression model was fitted using a known number of TSCI cases as the dependent variable and the population at risk as the single independent variable. In the process of deriving TSCI incidence, an alternative TSCI model was specified in an attempt to arrive at an optimal way of estimating the global incidence of TSCI. The global incidence of TSCI was estimated to be 23 cases per 1,000,000 persons in 2007 (179,312 cases per annum). World Health Organization's regional results are provided. Understanding the incidence of TSCI is important for health service planning and for the determination of injury prevention priorities. In the absence of high-quality epidemiological studies of TSCI in each country, the estimation of TSCI obtained through population modelling can be used to overcome known deficits in global spinal cord injury (SCI) data. The incidence of TSCI is context specific, and an alternative regression model demonstrated how TSCI incidence estimates could be improved with additional data. The results highlight the need for data standardisation and comprehensive reporting of national level TSCI data. A step-wise approach from the collation of conventional epidemiological data through to population modelling is suggested.

  2. Estimation of National Colorectal-Cancer Incidence Using Claims Databases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Quantin, C.; Benzenine, E.; Hagi, M.; Auverlot, B.; Cottenet, J.; Binquet, M.; Compain, D.

    2012-01-01

    The aim of the study was to assess the accuracy of the colorectal-cancer incidence estimated from administrative data. Methods. We selected potential incident colorectal-cancer cases in 2004-2005 French administrative data, using two alternative algorithms. The first was based only on diagnostic and procedure codes, whereas the second considered the past history of the patient. Results of both methods were assessed against two corresponding local cancer registries, acting as “gold standards.” We then constructed a multivariable regression model to estimate the corrected total number of incident colorectal-cancer cases from the whole national administrative database. Results. The first algorithm provided an estimated local incidence very close to that given by the regional registries (646 versus 645 incident cases) and had good sensitivity and positive predictive values (about 75% for both). The second algorithm overestimated the incidence by about 50% and had a poor positive predictive value of about 60%. The estimation of national incidence obtained by the first algorithm differed from that observed in 14 registries by only 2.34%. Conclusion. This study shows the usefulness of administrative databases for countries with no national cancer registry and suggests a method for correcting the estimates provided by these data.

  3. Incidence and Prevalence of Opportunistic and Other Infections and the Impact of Antiretroviral Therapy Among HIV-infected Children in Low- and Middle-income Countries: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    B-Lajoie, Marie-Renée; Drouin, Olivier; Bartlett, Gillian; Nguyen, Quynh; Low, Andrea; Gavriilidis, Georgios; Easterbrook, Philippa; Muhe, Lulu

    2016-01-01

    Background. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to evaluate the incidence and prevalence of 14 opportunistic infections (OIs) and other infections as well as the impact of antiretroviral therapy (ART) among human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)–infected children (aged Literatura Latino Americana em Ciências da Saúde databases. Summary incident risk (IR) and prevalent risk for each OI in ART-naive and ART-exposed children were calculated, and unadjusted odds ratios calculated for impact of ART. The number of OI cases and associated costs averted were estimated using the AIDS impact model. Results. We identified 4542 citations, and 88 studies were included, comprising 55 679 HIV-infected children. Bacterial pneumonia and tuberculosis were the most common incident and prevalent infections in both ART-naive and ART-exposed children. There was a significant reduction in IR with ART for the majority of OIs. There was a smaller impact on bacterial sepsis and pneumonia, and an increase observed for varicella zoster. ART initiation based on 2010 World Health Organization guidelines criteria for ART initiation in children was estimated to potentially avert >161 000 OIs (2013 UNAIDS data) with estimated cost savings of at least US$17 million per year. Conclusions. There is a decrease in the risk of most OIs with ART use in HIV-infected children in LMICs, and estimated large potential cost savings in OIs averted with ART use, although there are greater uncertainties in pediatric data compared with that of adults. PMID:27001796

  4. Impact of incident and prevalent herpes simplex virus-2 infection on the incidence of HIV-1 infection among commercial sex workers in South Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Ramjee, G

    2005-07-01

    Full Text Available This study investigated the impact of prevalent and incident HSV-2 infection on the incidence of HIV-1 infection in a cohort of female commercial sex workers in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Prior to a vaginal microbicide trial, 416 women were...

  5. Pregnancy incidence and correlates during the HVTN 503 Phambili HIV vaccine trial conducted among South African women.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mary H Latka

    Full Text Available HIV prevention trials are increasingly being conducted in sub-Saharan Africa. Women at risk for HIV are also at risk of pregnancy. To maximize safety, women agree to avoid pregnancy during trials, yet pregnancies occur. Using data from the HVTN 503/"Phambili" vaccine trial, we report pregnancy incidence during and after the vaccination period and identify factors, measured at screening, associated with incident pregnancy.To enrol in the trial, women agreed and were supported to avoid pregnancy until 1 month after their third and final vaccination ("vaccination period", corresponding to the first 7 months of follow-up. Unsterilized women, pooled across study arms, were analyzed. Poisson regression compared pregnancy rates during and after the vaccination period. Cox proportional hazards regression identified associations with first pregnancy.Among 352 women (median age 23 yrs; median follow-up 1.5 yrs, pregnancy incidence was 9.6/100 women-years overall and 6.8/100 w-yrs and 11.3/100 w-yrs during and after the vaccination period, respectively [Rate Ratio = 0.60 (0.32-1.14, p = 0.10]. In multivariable analysis, pregnancy was reduced among women who: enrolled at sites providing contraception on-site [HR = 0.43, 95% CI (0.22-0.86]; entered the trial as injectable contraceptive users [HR = 0.37 (0.21-0.67] or as consistent condom users (trend [HR = 0.54 (0.28-1.04]. Compared with women with a single partner of HIV-unknown status, pregnancy rates were increased among women with: a single partner whose status was HIV-negative [HR = 2.34(1.16-4.73] and; 2 partners both of HIV-unknown status [HR = 4.42(1.59-12.29]. Women with 2 more of these risk factors: marijuana use, heavy drinking, or use of either during sex, had increased pregnancy incidence [HR = 2.66 (1.24-5.72].It is possible to screen South African women for pregnancy risk at trial entry. Providing injectable contraception for free on-site and supporting consistent condom use may reduce

  6. The use of HIV post-exposure prophylaxis in forensic medicine following incidents of sexual violence in Hamburg, Germany: a retrospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebert, Julia; Sperhake, Jan Peter; Degen, Olaf; Schröder, Ann Sophie

    2018-05-18

    In Hamburg, Germany, the initiation of HIV post-exposure prophylaxis (HIV PEP) in cases of sexual violence is often carried out by forensic medical specialists (FMS) using the city's unique Hamburg Model. FMS-provided three-day HIV PEP starter packs include a combination of raltegravir and emtricitabine/tenofovir. This study aimed to investigate the practice of offering HIV PEP, reasons for discontinuing treatment, patient compliance, and whether or not potential perpetrators were tested for HIV. We conducted a retrospective study of forensic clinical examinations carried out by the Hamburg Department of Legal Medicine following incidents of sexual violence from 2009 to 2016. One thousand two hundred eighteen incidents of sexual violence were reviewed. In 18% of these cases, HIV PEP was initially prescribed by the FMS. HIV PEP indication depended on the examination occurring within 24 h after the incident, no/unknown condom use, the occurrence of ejaculation, the presence of any injury, and the perpetrator being from population at high risk for HIV. Half of the HIV PEP recipients returned for a reevaluation of the HIV PEP indication by an infectious disease specialist, and just 16% completed the full month of treatment. Only 131 potential perpetrators were tested for HIV, with one found to be HIV positive. No HIV seroconversion was registered among the study sample. Provision of HIV PEP by an FMS after sexual assault ensures appropriate and prompt care for victims. However, patient compliance and completion rates are low. HIV testing of perpetrators must be carried out much more rigorously.

  7. Evaluating the impact of DREAMS on HIV incidence among young women who sell sex: protocol for a non-randomised study in Zimbabwe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hensen, Bernadette; Hargreaves, James R; Chiyaka, Tarisai; Chabata, Sungai; Mushati, Phillis; Floyd, Sian; Birdthistle, Isolde; Busza, Joanna; Cowan, Frances

    2018-01-31

    "Determined, Resilient, AIDS-free, Mentored and Safe" (DREAMS) is a package of biomedical, social and economic interventions offered to adolescent girls and young women aged 10-24 years with the aim of reducing HIV incidence. In four of the six DREAMS districts in Zimbabwe, DREAMS includes an offer of oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (DREAMS+PrEP), alongside interventions to support demand and adherence, to women aged 18-24 who are at highest risk of HIV infection, including young women who sell sex (YWSS). This evaluation study addresses the question: does the delivery of DREAMS+PrEP through various providers reduce HIV incidence among YWSS Zimbabwe? We describe our approach to designing a rigorous study to assess whether DREAMS+PrEP had an impact on HIV incidence. The study design needed to account for the fact that: 1) DREAMS+PrEP was non-randomly allocated; 2) there is no sampling frame for the target population for the evaluation; 3) there are a small number of DREAMS districts (N = 6), and 4) DREAMS+PrEP is being implemented by various providers. The study will use a cohort analysis approach to compare HIV incidence among YWSS in two DREAMS+PrEP districts to HIV incidence among YWSS in non-DREAMS comparison sites. YWSS will be referred to services and recruited into the cohort through a network-based (respondent-driven) recruitment strategy, and followed-up 12- and 24-months after enrolment. Women will be asked to complete a questionnaire and offered HIV testing. Additional complications of this study include identifying comparable populations of YWSS in the DREAMS+PrEP and non-DREAMS comparison sites, and retention of YWSS over the 24-month period. The primary outcome is HIV incidence among YWSS HIV-negative at study enrolment measured by repeat, rapid HIV testing over 24-months. Inference will be based on plausibility that DREAMS+PrEP had an impact on HIV incidence. A process evaluation will be conducted to understand intervention implementation, and

  8. Incidence and prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus with HIV infection in Africa: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prioreschi, A; Munthali, R J; Soepnel, L; Goldstein, J A; Micklesfield, L K; Aronoff, D M; Norris, S A

    2017-03-29

    This systematic review aims to investigate the incidence and prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in patients with HIV infection in African populations. Only studies reporting data from Africa were included. A systematic search was conducted using four databases for articles referring to HIV infection and antiretroviral therapy, and T2DM in Africa. Articles were excluded if they reported data on children, animals or type 1 diabetes exclusively. Incidence of T2DM and prevalence of T2DM. Risk ratios were generated for pooled data using random effects models. Bias was assessed using an adapted Cochrane Collaboration bias assessment tool. Of 1056 references that were screened, only 20 were selected for inclusion. Seven reported the incidence of T2DM in patients with HIV infection, eight reported the prevalence of T2DM in HIV-infected versus uninfected individuals and five reported prevalence of T2DM in HIV-treated versus untreated patients. Incidence rates ranged from 4 to 59 per 1000 person years. Meta-analysis showed no significant differences between T2DM prevalence in HIV-infected individuals versus uninfected individuals (risk ratio (RR) =1.61, 95% CI 0.62 to 4.21, p=0.33), or between HIV-treated patients versus untreated patients (RR=1.38, 95% CI 0.66 to 2.87, p=0.39), and heterogeneity was high in both meta-analyses (I 2 =87% and 52%, respectively). Meta-analysis showed no association between T2DM prevalence and HIV infection or antiretroviral therapy; however, these results are limited by the high heterogeneity of the included studies and moderate-to-high risk of bias, as well as, the small number of studies included. There is a need for well-designed prospective longitudinal studies with larger population sizes to better assess incidence and prevalence of T2DM in African patients with HIV. Furthermore, screening for T2DM using gold standard methods in this population is necessary. PROSPERO42016038689. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For

  9. Consideration of Including Male Circumcision in the Indonesian HIV Prevention Strategy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    IN Sutarsa

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Introduction HIV/AIDS is an emerging threat to population health. Globally, 33.4 million people were estimated to be living with HIV in 2008 including 2.1 million children.1,2 The total number of new cases was estimated to be 2.7 million people (including 430,000 children and HIV/AIDS related death was estimated to be 2.0 million in 2008.1 Sustainable prevention measures followed by care, support and treatment program is vital to reduce the incidence and prevalence of HIV/AIDS.

  10. High Incidence of Asymptomatic Syphilis in HIV-Infected MSM Justifies Routine Screening

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Branger, Judith; van der Meer, Jan T. M.; van Ketel, Ruud J.; Jurriaans, Suzanne; Prins, Jan M.

    2009-01-01

    Background: Recently, the incidence of syphilis has risen, mainly among men having sex with men (MSM), many of whom are coinfected with HIV. Current guidelines recommend at least yearly syphilis testing in this group. In this study, we assessed the yield of routine syphilis screening in outpatient

  11. Retrospective cohort study of cancer incidence and mortality by HIV status in a Georgia, USA, prisoner cohort during the HAART era.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zlotorzynska, Maria; Spaulding, Anne C; Messina, Lauren C; Coker, Daniella; Ward, Kevin; Easley, Kirk; Baillargeon, Jacques; Mink, Pamela J; Simard, Edgar P

    2016-04-11

    Non-AIDS-defining cancers (NADCs) have emerged as significant contributors to cancer mortality and morbidity among persons living with HIV (PLWH). Because NADCs are also associated with many social and behavioural risk factors that underlie HIV, determining the extent to which each of these factors contributes to NADC risk is difficult. We examined cancer incidence and mortality among persons with a history of incarceration, because distributions of other cancer risk factors are likely similar between prisoners living with HIV and non-infected prisoners. Registry-based retrospective cohort study. Cohort of 22,422 persons incarcerated in Georgia, USA, prisons on 30 June 1991, and still alive in 1998. Cancer incidence and mortality were assessed between 1998 and 2009, using cancer and death registry data matched to prison administrative records. Age, race and sex-adjusted standardised mortality and incidence ratios, relative to the general population, were calculated for AIDS-defining cancers, viral-associated NADCs and non-infection-associated NADCs, stratified by HIV status. There were no significant differences in cancer mortality relative to the general population in the cohort, regardless of HIV status. In contrast, cancer incidence was elevated among the PLWH. Furthermore, incidence of viral-associated NADCs was significantly higher among PLWH versus those without HIV infection (standardised incidence ratio=6.1, 95% CI 3.0 to 11.7, pcancer incidence was elevated relative to the general population, likely related to increased prevalence of oncogenic viral co-infections. Cancer prevention and screening programmes within prisons may help to reduce the cancer burden in this high-risk population. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

  12. Incidence and predictors of pregnancy among a cohort of HIV-positive women initiating antiretroviral therapy in Mbarara, Uganda.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Angela Kaida

    Full Text Available Many people living with HIV in sub-Saharan Africa desire biological children. Implementation of HIV prevention strategies that support the reproductive goals of people living with HIV while minimizing HIV transmission risk to sexual partners and future children requires a comprehensive understanding of pregnancy in this population. We analyzed prospective cohort data to determine pregnancy incidence and predictors among HIV-positive women initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART in a setting with high HIV prevalence and fertility.Participants were enrolled in the Uganda AIDS Rural Treatment Outcomes (UARTO cohort of HIV-positive individuals initiating ART in Mbarara. Bloodwork (including CD4 cells/mm(3, HIV viral load and questionnaires (including socio-demographics, health status, sexual behavior, partner dynamics, HIV history, and self-reported pregnancy were completed at baseline and quarterly. Our analysis includes 351 HIV-positive women (18-49 years who enrolled between 2005-2011. We measured pregnancy incidence by proximal and distal time relative to ART initiation and used multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression analysis (with repeated events to identify baseline and time-dependent predictors of pregnancy post-ART initiation.At baseline (pre-ART initiation, median age was 33 years [IQR: 27-37] and median prior livebirths was four [IQR: 2-6]. 38% were married with 61% reporting HIV-positive spouses. 73% of women had disclosed HIV status to a primary sexual partner. Median baseline CD4 was 137 cells/mm(3 [IQR: 81-207]. At enrolment, 9.1% (31/342 reported current pregnancy. After ART initiation, 84 women experienced 105 pregnancies over 3.8 median years of follow-up, yielding a pregnancy incidence of 9.40 per 100 WYs. Three years post-ART initiation, cumulative probability of at least one pregnancy was 28% and independently associated with younger age (Adjusted Hazard Ratio (AHR: 0.89/year increase; 95%CI: 0.86-0.92 and HIV

  13. HIV status awareness, partnership dissolution and HIV transmission in generalized epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reniers, Georges; Armbruster, Benjamin

    2012-01-01

    HIV status aware couples with at least one HIV positive partner are characterized by high separation and divorce rates. This phenomenon is often described as a corollary of couples HIV Testing and Counseling (HTC) that ought to be minimized. In this contribution, we demonstrate the implications of partnership dissolution in serodiscordant couples for the propagation of HIV. We develop a compartmental model to study epidemic outcomes of elevated partnership dissolution rates in serodiscordant couples and parameterize it with estimates from population-based data (Rakai, Uganda). Via its effect on partnership dissolution, every percentage point increase in HIV status awareness reduces HIV incidence in monogamous populations by 0.27 percent for women and 0.63 percent for men. These effects are even larger when the assumption of monogamy can be relaxed, but are moderated by other behavior changes (e.g., increased condom use) in HIV status aware serodiscordant partnerships. When these behavior changes are taken into account, each percentage point increase in HIV status awareness reduces HIV incidence by 0.13 and 0.32 percent for women and men, respectively (assuming monogamy). The partnership dissolution effect exists because it decreases the fraction of serodiscordant couples in the population and prolongs the time that individuals spend outside partnerships. Our model predicts that elevated partnership dissolution rates in HIV status aware serodiscordant couples reduce the spread of HIV. As a consequence, the full impact of couples HTC for HIV prevention is probably larger than recognized to date. Particularly high partnership dissolution rates in female positive serodiscordant couples contribute to the gender imbalance in HIV infections.

  14. Life expectancy living with HIV: recent estimates and future implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakagawa, Fumiyo; May, Margaret; Phillips, Andrew

    2013-02-01

    The life expectancy of people living with HIV has dramatically increased since effective antiretroviral therapy has been available, and still continues to improve. Here, we review the latest literature on estimates of life expectancy and consider the implications for future research. With timely diagnosis, access to a variety of current drugs and good lifelong adherence, people with recently acquired infections can expect to have a life expectancy which is nearly the same as that of HIV-negative individuals. Modelling studies suggest that life expectancy could improve further if there were increased uptake of HIV testing, better antiretroviral regimens and treatment strategies, and the adoption of healthier lifestyles by those living with HIV. In particular, earlier diagnosis is one of the most important factors associated with better life expectancy. A consequence of improved survival is the increasing number of people with HIV who are aged over 50 years old, and further research into the impact of ageing on HIV-positive people will therefore become crucial. The development of age-specific HIV treatment and management guidelines is now called for. Analyses on cohort studies and mathematical modelling studies have been used to estimate life expectancy of those with HIV, providing useful insights of importance to individuals and healthcare planning.

  15. Incidence and risk factors of HIV-related non-Hodgkin's lymphoma in the era of combination antiretroviral therapy: a European multicohort study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bohlius, Julia; Schmidlin, Kurt; Costagliola, Dominique

    2009-01-01

    Incidence and risk factors of HIV-associated non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL) are not well defined in the era of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART).......Incidence and risk factors of HIV-associated non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL) are not well defined in the era of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART)....

  16. Would you test for 5000 Shillings? HIV risk and willingness to accept HIV testing in Tanzania.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ostermann, Jan; Brown, Derek S; Mühlbacher, Axel; Njau, Bernard; Thielman, Nathan

    2015-12-01

    Despite substantial public health efforts to increase HIV testing, testing rates have plateaued in many countries and rates of repeat testing for those with ongoing risk are low. To inform policies aimed at increasing uptake of HIV testing, we identified characteristics associated with individuals' willingness-to-accept (WTA) an HIV test in a general population sample and among two high-risk populations in Moshi, Tanzania. In total, 721 individuals, including randomly selected community members (N = 402), female barworkers (N = 135), and male Kilimanjaro mountain porters (N = 184), were asked in a double-bounded contingent valuation format if they would test for HIV in exchange for 2000, 5000 or 10,000 Shillings (approximately $1.30, $3.20, and $6.40, respectively). The study was conducted between September 2012 and February 2013. More than one quarter of participants (196; 27 %) stated they would be willing to test for Tanzania Shilling (TSH) 2000, whereas one in seven (98; 13.6 %) required more than TSH 10,000. The average WTA estimate was TSH 4564 (95 % Confidence Interval: TSH 4201 to 4927). Significant variation in WTA estimates by gender, HIV risk factors and other characteristics plausibly reflects variation in individuals' valuations of benefits of and barriers to testing. WTA estimates were higher among males than females. Among males, WTA was nearly one-third lower for those who reported symptoms of HIV than those who did not. Among females, WTA estimates varied with respondents' education, own and partners' HIV testing history, and lifetime reports of transactional sex. For both genders, the most significant association was observed with respondents' perception of the accuracy of the HIV test; those believing HIV tests to be completely accurate were willing to test for approximately one third less than their counterparts. The mean WTA estimates identified in this study suggest that within the study population, incentivized universal HIV

  17. High rates of HIV seroconversion in pregnant women and low reported levels of HIV testing among male partners in Southern Mozambique: results from a mixed methods study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Caroline De Schacht

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: Prevention of acute HIV infections in pregnancy is required to achieve elimination of pediatric HIV. Identification and support for HIV negative pregnant women and their partners, particularly serodiscordant couples, are critical. A mixed method study done in Southern Mozambique estimated HIV incidence during pregnancy, associated risk factors and factors influencing partner's HIV testing. METHODS: Between April 2008 and November 2011, a prospective cohort of 1230 HIV negative pregnant women was followed during pregnancy. A structured questionnaire, HIV testing, and collection of dried blood spots were done at 2-3 scheduled visits. HIV incidence rates were calculated by repeat HIV testing and risk factors assessed by Poisson regression. A qualitative study including 37 individual interviews with men, women, and nurses and 11 focus group discussions (n = 94 with men, women and grandmothers explored motivators and barriers to uptake of male HIV testing. RESULTS: HIV incidence rate was estimated at 4.28/100 women-years (95%CI: 2.33-7.16. Significant risk factors for HIV acquisition were early sexual debut (RR 3.79, 95%CI: 1.04-13.78, p = 0.04 and living in Maputo Province (RR 4.35, 95%CI: 0.97-19.45, p = 0.05. Nineteen percent of women reported that their partner had tested for HIV (93% knew the result with 8/213 indicating an HIV positive partner, 56% said their partner had not tested and 19% did not know their partner test status. Of the 14 seroconversions, only one reported being in a serodiscordant relationship. Fear of discrimination or stigma was reported as a key barrier to male HIV testing, while knowing the importance of getting tested and receiving care was the main motivator. CONCLUSIONS: HIV incidence during pregnancy is high in Southern Mozambique, but knowledge of partners' HIV status remains low. Knowledge of both partners' HIV status is critical for maximal effectiveness of prevention and treatment services to reach

  18. Pregnancy Incidence and Correlates during the HVTN 503 Phambili HIV Vaccine Trial Conducted among South African Women

    Science.gov (United States)

    Latka, Mary H.; Fielding, Katherine; Gray, Glenda E.; Bekker, Linda-Gail; Nchabeleng, Maphoshane; Mlisana, Koleka; Nielson, Tanya; Roux, Surita; Mkhize, Baningi; Mathebula, Matsontso; Naicker, Nivashnee; de Bruyn, Guy; Kublin, James; Churchyard, Gavin J.

    2012-01-01

    Background HIV prevention trials are increasingly being conducted in sub-Saharan Africa. Women at risk for HIV are also at risk of pregnancy. To maximize safety, women agree to avoid pregnancy during trials, yet pregnancies occur. Using data from the HVTN 503/“Phambili” vaccine trial, we report pregnancy incidence during and after the vaccination period and identify factors, measured at screening, associated with incident pregnancy. Methods To enrol in the trial, women agreed and were supported to avoid pregnancy until 1 month after their third and final vaccination (“vaccination period”), corresponding to the first 7 months of follow-up. Unsterilized women, pooled across study arms, were analyzed. Poisson regression compared pregnancy rates during and after the vaccination period. Cox proportional hazards regression identified associations with first pregnancy. Results Among 352 women (median age 23 yrs; median follow-up 1.5 yrs), pregnancy incidence was 9.6/100 women-years overall and 6.8/100 w-yrs and 11.3/100 w-yrs during and after the vaccination period, respectively [Rate Ratio = 0.60 (0.32–1.14), p = 0.10]. In multivariable analysis, pregnancy was reduced among women who: enrolled at sites providing contraception on-site [HR = 0.43, 95% CI (0.22–0.86)]; entered the trial as injectable contraceptive users [HR = 0.37 (0.21–0.67)] or as consistent condom users (trend) [HR = 0.54 (0.28–1.04)]. Compared with women with a single partner of HIV-unknown status, pregnancy rates were increased among women with: a single partner whose status was HIV-negative [HR = 2.34(1.16–4.73)] and; 2 partners both of HIV-unknown status [HR = 4.42(1.59–12.29)]. Women with 2 more of these risk factors: marijuana use, heavy drinking, or use of either during sex, had increased pregnancy incidence [HR = 2.66 (1.24–5.72)]. Conclusions It is possible to screen South African women for pregnancy risk at trial entry. Providing injectable

  19. The distribution of new HIV infections by mode of exposure in Morocco

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mumtaz, Ghina R; Kouyoumjian, Silva P; Hilmi, Nahla; Zidouh, Ahmed; Rhilani, Houssine El; Alami, Kamal; Bennani, Aziza; Gouws, Eleanor; Ghys, Peter Denis; Abu-Raddad, Laith J

    2013-01-01

    Objectives Building on a wealth of new empirical data, the objective of this study was to estimate the distribution of new HIV infections in Morocco by mode of exposure using the modes of transmission (MoT) mathematical model. Methods The MoT model was implemented within a collaboration with the Morocco Ministry of Health and the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS. The model was parameterised through a comprehensive review and synthesis of HIV and risk behaviour data in Morocco, mainly through the Middle East and North Africa HIV/AIDS Synthesis Project. Uncertainty analyses were used to assess the reliability of and uncertainty around our calculated estimates. Results Female sex workers (FSWs), clients of FSWs, men who have sex with men (MSM) and injecting drug users (IDUs) contributed 14%, 24%, 14% and 7% of new HIV infections, respectively. Two-thirds (67%) of new HIV infections occurred among FSWs, clients of FSWs, MSM and IDUs, or among the stable sexual partners of these populations. Casual heterosexual sex contributed 7% of HIV infections. More than half (52%) of HIV incidence is among females, but 71% of these infections are due to an infected spouse. The vast majority of HIV infections among men (89%) are due to high-risk behaviour. A very small HIV incidence is predicted to arise from medical injections or blood transfusions (0.1%). Conclusions The HIV epidemic in Morocco is driven by HIV incidence in high-risk population groups, with commercial heterosexual sex being the largest contributor to incidence. There is a need to focus HIV response more on these populations, mainly through proactive and sustainable HIV surveillance, and the expansion and increased geographical coverage of services such as condom promotion among FSWs, voluntary counselling and testing, harm reduction and treatment. PMID:23413401

  20. National HIV prevalence estimates for sub-Saharan Africa: controlling selection bias with Heckman-type selection models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hogan, Daniel R; Salomon, Joshua A; Canning, David; Hammitt, James K; Zaslavsky, Alan M; Bärnighausen, Till

    2012-01-01

    Objectives Population-based HIV testing surveys have become central to deriving estimates of national HIV prevalence in sub-Saharan Africa. However, limited participation in these surveys can lead to selection bias. We control for selection bias in national HIV prevalence estimates using a novel approach, which unlike conventional imputation can account for selection on unobserved factors. Methods For 12 Demographic and Health Surveys conducted from 2001 to 2009 (N=138 300), we predict HIV status among those missing a valid HIV test with Heckman-type selection models, which allow for correlation between infection status and participation in survey HIV testing. We compare these estimates with conventional ones and introduce a simulation procedure that incorporates regression model parameter uncertainty into confidence intervals. Results Selection model point estimates of national HIV prevalence were greater than unadjusted estimates for 10 of 12 surveys for men and 11 of 12 surveys for women, and were also greater than the majority of estimates obtained from conventional imputation, with significantly higher HIV prevalence estimates for men in Cote d'Ivoire 2005, Mali 2006 and Zambia 2007. Accounting for selective non-participation yielded 95% confidence intervals around HIV prevalence estimates that are wider than those obtained with conventional imputation by an average factor of 4.5. Conclusions Our analysis indicates that national HIV prevalence estimates for many countries in sub-Saharan African are more uncertain than previously thought, and may be underestimated in several cases, underscoring the need for increasing participation in HIV surveys. Heckman-type selection models should be included in the set of tools used for routine estimation of HIV prevalence. PMID:23172342

  1. Testing the hypothesis that treatment can eliminate HIV: a nationwide, population-based study of the Danish HIV epidemic in men who have sex with men.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okano, Justin T; Robbins, Danielle; Palk, Laurence; Gerstoft, Jan; Obel, Niels; Blower, Sally

    2016-07-01

    Worldwide, approximately 35 million individuals are infected with HIV; about 25 million of these live in sub-Saharan Africa. WHO proposes using treatment as prevention (TasP) to eliminate HIV. Treatment suppresses viral load, decreasing the probability an individual transmits HIV. The elimination threshold is one new HIV infection per 1000 individuals. Here, we test the hypothesis that TasP can substantially reduce epidemics and eliminate HIV. We estimate the impact of TasP, between 1996 and 2013, on the Danish HIV epidemic in men who have sex with men (MSM), an epidemic UNAIDS has identified as a priority for elimination. We use a CD4-staged Bayesian back-calculation approach to estimate incidence, and the hidden epidemic (the number of HIV-infected undiagnosed MSM). To develop the back-calculation model, we use data from an ongoing nationwide population-based study: the Danish HIV Cohort Study. Incidence, and the hidden epidemic, decreased substantially after treatment was introduced in 1996. By 2013, incidence was close to the elimination threshold: 1·4 (median, 95% Bayesian credible interval [BCI] 0·4-2·1) new HIV infections per 1000 MSM and there were only 617 (264-858) undiagnosed MSM. Decreasing incidence and increasing treatment coverage were highly correlated; a treatment threshold effect was apparent. Our study is the first to show that TasP can substantially reduce a country's HIV epidemic, and bring it close to elimination. However, we have shown the effectiveness of TasP under optimal conditions: very high treatment coverage, and exceptionally high (98%) viral suppression rate. Unless these extremely challenging conditions can be met in sub-Saharan Africa, the WHO's global elimination strategy is unlikely to succeed. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Estimating a population cumulative incidence under calendar time trends

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Stefan N; Overgaard, Morten; Andersen, Per K

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The risk of a disease or psychiatric disorder is frequently measured by the age-specific cumulative incidence. Cumulative incidence estimates are often derived in cohort studies with individuals recruited over calendar time and with the end of follow-up governed by a specific date....... It is common practice to apply the Kaplan-Meier or Aalen-Johansen estimator to the total sample and report either the estimated cumulative incidence curve or just a single point on the curve as a description of the disease risk. METHODS: We argue that, whenever the disease or disorder of interest is influenced...

  3. A Suitable Approach to Estimate Cancer Incidence in Area without Cancer Registry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mitton, N.; Colonna, M.; Colonna, M.

    2011-01-01

    Objective. Use of cancer cases from registries and PMSI claims database to estimate Department-specific incidence of four major cancers. Methods. Case extraction used principal diagnosis then surgery codes. PMSI cases/registry cases ratios for 2004 were modelled then Department-specific incidence for 2007 estimated using these ratios and 2007 PMSI cases. Results. For 2007, only colon-rectum and breast cancer estimations were satisfactorily validated for infra national incidence not ovary and kidney cancers. For breast, the estimated national incidence was 50,578 cases and the incidence rate 98.6 cases per 100,000 person per year. For colon-rectum, incidence was 21,172 in men versus 18,327 in women and the incidence rate 38 per 100,000 versus 24.8. For ovary, the estimated incidence was 4,637 and the rate 8.6 per 100,000. For kidney, incidence was 6,775 in men versus 3,273 in women and the rate 13.3 per 100.000 versus 5.2. Conclusion. Incidence estimation using PMSI patient identifiers proved encouraging though still dependent on the assumption of uniform cancer treatments and coding.

  4. Effect of isoniazid preventive therapy on tuberculosis incidence in people living with HIV-AIDS at Hasan Sadikin hospital

    Science.gov (United States)

    Satiavan, I.; Hartantri, Y.; Werry, B.; Nababan, Y.; Wisaksana, R.; Alisjahban, B.

    2018-03-01

    Indonesia is the second largest number of tuberculosis (TB) in the world. Isoniazid Preventive Therapy (IPT) as one of the three I’s TB-HIV collaboration to manage TB in people living with HIV / AIDS (PLHIV) has not been fully performed. It is related to doubt to get rid of TB in PLHIV. This study aims to see the effect of IPT on the incidence of TB in PLHIV. This issue is a retrospective cohort study based on medical record data in HIV clinic. Inclusion criteria are PLHIV ≥ 15 years of age who were registered to visit the CST service and obtain IPT with good adherence if they were receiving ART. Of 462 patients, HIV- infected patients receiving IPT were 154 (33.3%). IPT administration has a protective effect on PLHIV where the rate of TB incidence in PLHIV who received IPT were 0.21 times lower than those who did not receive IPT (IRR = 0.21, 95% CI 0.023-0.881, p 0.008). In this population, IPT administration reduces 79% risk of PLHIV to suffer TB.IPT administration reduces the incidence of TB.

  5. Cancer incidence and mortality for all causes in HIV-infected patients over a quarter century: a multicentre cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raffetti, Elena; Albini, Laura; Gotti, Daria; Segala, Daniela; Maggiolo, Franco; di Filippo, Elisa; Saracino, Annalisa; Ladisa, Nicoletta; Lapadula, Giuseppe; Fornabaio, Chiara; Castelnuovo, Filippo; Casari, Salvatore; Fabbiani, Massimiliano; Pierotti, Piera; Donato, Francesco; Quiros-Roldan, Eugenia

    2015-03-12

    We aimed to assess cancer incidence and mortality for all-causes and factors related to risk of death in an Italian cohort of HIV infected unselected patients as compared to the general population. We conducted a retrospective (1986-2012) cohort study on 16 268 HIV infected patients enrolled in the MASTER cohort. The standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) and standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) were computed using cancer incidence rates of Italian Cancer Registries and official national data for overall mortality. The risk factors for death from all causes were assessed using Poisson regression models. 1,195 cancer cases were diagnosed from 1986 to 2012: 700 AIDS-defining-cancers (ADCs) and 495 non-AIDS-defining-cancers (NADCs). ADC incidence was much higher than the Italian population (SIR = 30.8, 95% confidence interval 27.9-34.0) whereas NADC incidence was similar to the general population (SIR = 0.9, 95% CI 0.8-1.1). The SMR for all causes was 11.6 (11.1-12.0) in the period, and it decreased over time, mainly after 1996, up to 3.53 (2.5-4.8) in 2012. Male gender, year of enrolment before 1993, older age at enrolment, intravenous drug use, low CD4 cell count, AIDS event, cancer occurrence and the absence of antiretroviral therapy were all associated independently with risk of death. In HIV infected patients, ADC but not NADC incidence rates were higher than the general population. Although overall mortality in HIV infected subjects decreased over time, it is about three-fold higher than the general population at present.

  6. Incidence and Predictors of Pregnancy among a Cohort of HIV-Positive Women Initiating Antiretroviral Therapy in Mbarara, Uganda

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaida, Angela; Matthews, Lynn T.; Kanters, Steve; Kabakyenga, Jerome; Muzoora, Conrad; Mocello, A. Rain; Martin, Jeffrey N.; Hunt, Peter; Haberer, Jessica; Hogg, Robert S.; Bangsberg, David R.

    2013-01-01

    Objective Many people living with HIV in sub-Saharan Africa desire biological children. Implementation of HIV prevention strategies that support the reproductive goals of people living with HIV while minimizing HIV transmission risk to sexual partners and future children requires a comprehensive understanding of pregnancy in this population. We analyzed prospective cohort data to determine pregnancy incidence and predictors among HIV-positive women initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) in a setting with high HIV prevalence and fertility. Methods Participants were enrolled in the Uganda AIDS Rural Treatment Outcomes (UARTO) cohort of HIV-positive individuals initiating ART in Mbarara. Bloodwork (including CD4 cells/mm3, HIV viral load) and questionnaires (including socio-demographics, health status, sexual behavior, partner dynamics, HIV history, and self-reported pregnancy) were completed at baseline and quarterly. Our analysis includes 351 HIV-positive women (18–49 years) who enrolled between 2005–2011. We measured pregnancy incidence by proximal and distal time relative to ART initiation and used multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression analysis (with repeated events) to identify baseline and time-dependent predictors of pregnancy post-ART initiation. Results At baseline (pre-ART initiation), median age was 33 years [IQR: 27–37] and median prior livebirths was four [IQR: 2–6]. 38% were married with 61% reporting HIV-positive spouses. 73% of women had disclosed HIV status to a primary sexual partner. Median baseline CD4 was 137 cells/mm3 [IQR: 81–207]. At enrolment, 9.1% (31/342) reported current pregnancy. After ART initiation, 84 women experienced 105 pregnancies over 3.8 median years of follow-up, yielding a pregnancy incidence of 9.40 per 100 WYs. Three years post-ART initiation, cumulative probability of at least one pregnancy was 28% and independently associated with younger age (Adjusted Hazard Ratio (AHR): 0.89/year increase; 95%CI: 0

  7. HIV status awareness, partnership dissolution and HIV transmission in generalized epidemics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Georges Reniers

    Full Text Available HIV status aware couples with at least one HIV positive partner are characterized by high separation and divorce rates. This phenomenon is often described as a corollary of couples HIV Testing and Counseling (HTC that ought to be minimized. In this contribution, we demonstrate the implications of partnership dissolution in serodiscordant couples for the propagation of HIV.We develop a compartmental model to study epidemic outcomes of elevated partnership dissolution rates in serodiscordant couples and parameterize it with estimates from population-based data (Rakai, Uganda.Via its effect on partnership dissolution, every percentage point increase in HIV status awareness reduces HIV incidence in monogamous populations by 0.27 percent for women and 0.63 percent for men. These effects are even larger when the assumption of monogamy can be relaxed, but are moderated by other behavior changes (e.g., increased condom use in HIV status aware serodiscordant partnerships. When these behavior changes are taken into account, each percentage point increase in HIV status awareness reduces HIV incidence by 0.13 and 0.32 percent for women and men, respectively (assuming monogamy. The partnership dissolution effect exists because it decreases the fraction of serodiscordant couples in the population and prolongs the time that individuals spend outside partnerships.Our model predicts that elevated partnership dissolution rates in HIV status aware serodiscordant couples reduce the spread of HIV. As a consequence, the full impact of couples HTC for HIV prevention is probably larger than recognized to date. Particularly high partnership dissolution rates in female positive serodiscordant couples contribute to the gender imbalance in HIV infections.

  8. Incidence of low and high-energy fractures in persons with and without HIV infection: a Danish population-based cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, Ann-Brit E; Gerstoft, Jan; Kronborg, Gitte; Larsen, Carsten S; Pedersen, Court; Pedersen, Gitte; Obel, Niels

    2012-01-28

    To compare fracture risk in persons with and without HIV infection and to examine the influence of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) initiation on risk of fracture. Population-based nationwide cohort study using Danish registries. Outcome measures were time to first fracture at any site, time to first low-energy and high-energy fracture in HIV-infected patients (n = 5306) compared with a general population control cohort (n = 26 530) matched by sex and age during the study period 1995-2009. Cox regression analyses were used to estimate incidence rate ratios (IRRs). HIV-infected patients had increased risk of fracture [IRR 1.5, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.4-1.7] compared with population controls. The relative risk was lower in HIV-monoinfected patients (IRR 1.3, 95% CI 1.2-1.4) than in HIV/hepatitis C virus (HCV)-coinfected patients (IRR 2.9, 95% CI 2.5-3.4).Both HIV-monoinfected and HIV/HCV-coinfected patients had increased risk of low-energy fracture, IRR of 1.6 (95% CI 1.4-1.8) and 3.8 (95% CI 3.0-4.9). However, only HIV/HCV-coinfected patients had increased risk of high-energy fracture, IRR of 2.4 (95% CI 2.0-2.9). Among HIV-monoinfected patients the risk of low-energy fracture was only significantly increased after HAART exposure, IRR of 1.8 (95% CI 1.5-2.1). The increased risk in HAART-exposed patients was not associated with CD4 cell count, prior AIDS, tenofovir or efavirenz exposure, but with comorbidity and smoking. HIV-infected patients had increased risk of fracture compared with population controls. Among HIV-monoinfected patients the increased risk was observed for low-energy but not for high-energy fractures, and the increased risk of low-energy fracture was only observed in HAART-exposed patients.

  9. Reporting of HIV-infected pregnant women: estimates from a Brazilian study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Domingues, Rosa Maria Soares Madeira; Saraceni, Valéria; Leal, Maria do Carmo

    2018-01-01

    To estimate the coverage of the reporting of cases of HIV-infected pregnant women, to estimate the increase in the coverage of the reporting with the routine search of data in other Brazilian health information systems, and to identify missed opportunities for identification of HIV-infected pregnant women in Brazilian maternity hospitals. This is a descriptive study on the linkage of Brazilian databases with primary data from the "Nascer no Brasil" study and secondary database collection from national health information systems. The "Nascer no Brasil" is a national-based study carried out in 2011-2012 with 23,894 pregnant women, which identified HIV-infected pregnant women using prenatal and medical records. We searched for cases of HIV-infected pregnant women identified in the "Nascer no Brasil" study in the Information System of Notifiable Diseases, the Control System for Laboratory Tests of the National CD4+/CD8+ Lymphocyte Count and HIV Viral Load Network, and the Logistics Control System for Medications. We used the OpenRecLink software for the linkage of databases. We estimated the notification coverage, with the respective confidence interval, of the evaluated Brazilian health information systems. We estimated the coverage of the reporting of HIV-infected pregnant women in the Information System of Notifiable Diseases as 57.1% (95%CI 42.9-70.2), and we located 89.3% of the HIV-infected pregnant women (95%CI 81.2-94.2) in some of the Brazilian health information systems researched. The search in other national health information systems would result in an increase of 57.1% of the reported cases. We identified no missed opportunities for the diagnosis of HIV+ in pregnant women in the maternity hospitals evaluated by the "Nascer no Brasil" study. The routine search for information in other Brazilian health information systems, a procedure carried out by the Ministry of Health for cases of AIDS in adults and children, should be adopted for cases of HIV in

  10. Prevalence of syphilis and HIV infection during pregnancy in incarcerated women and the incidence of congenital syphilis in births in prison in Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Domingues, Rosa Maria Soares Madeira; Leal, Maria do Carmo; Pereira, Ana Paula Esteves; Ayres, Barbara; Sánchez, Alexandra Roma; Larouzé, Bernard

    2017-11-21

    This study aimed to estimate the prevalence of syphilis and HIV infection during pregnancy, the mother to child transmission of syphilis and the incidence of congenital syphilis in incarcerated women in Brazil; to compare these rates to those observed in pregnant women outside of jail; and to verify the maternal factors associated with syphilis infection during pregnancy in free and incarcerated women. We used data from two nationwide studies conducted during the period 2011-2014. The Birth in Brazil study included 23,894 free women cared for in 266 hospitals. The Maternal and Infant Health in Prisons study included 495 incarcerated pregnant women or mothers living with their children, according to a census conducted in 33 female prisons. The same case definitions and data collection methods were used in both studies. The chi-square test was used to compare the characteristics of incarcerated and free women with a significance of 0.05. For incarcerated women, the estimated prevalence of syphilis during pregnancy was 8.7% (95%CI: 5.7-13.1) and for HIV infection 3.3% (95%CI: 1.7-6.6); the estimated mother to child transmission of syphilis was 66.7% (95%CI: 44.7-83.2) and the incidence of congenital syphilis was 58.1 per 1,000 living newborns (95%CI: 40.4-82.8). Incarcerated women had a greater prevalence of syphilis and HIV infection during pregnancy, lower quality of antenatal care and higher levels of social vulnerability. Syphilis infection showed to be an indicator of social vulnerability in free women, but not in incarcerated women. Health initiatives in prison are necessary to reduce healthcare inequalities and should include adequate antenatal and birth care.

  11. Prevalence of syphilis and HIV infection during pregnancy in incarcerated women and the incidence of congenital syphilis in births in prison in Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rosa Maria Soares Madeira Domingues

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract: This study aimed to estimate the prevalence of syphilis and HIV infection during pregnancy, the mother to child transmission of syphilis and the incidence of congenital syphilis in incarcerated women in Brazil; to compare these rates to those observed in pregnant women outside of jail; and to verify the maternal factors associated with syphilis infection during pregnancy in free and incarcerated women. We used data from two nationwide studies conducted during the period 2011-2014. The Birth in Brazil study included 23,894 free women cared for in 266 hospitals. The Maternal and Infant Health in Prisons study included 495 incarcerated pregnant women or mothers living with their children, according to a census conducted in 33 female prisons. The same case definitions and data collection methods were used in both studies. The chi-square test was used to compare the characteristics of incarcerated and free women with a significance of 0.05. For incarcerated women, the estimated prevalence of syphilis during pregnancy was 8.7% (95%CI: 5.7-13.1 and for HIV infection 3.3% (95%CI: 1.7-6.6; the estimated mother to child transmission of syphilis was 66.7% (95%CI: 44.7-83.2 and the incidence of congenital syphilis was 58.1 per 1,000 living newborns (95%CI: 40.4-82.8. Incarcerated women had a greater prevalence of syphilis and HIV infection during pregnancy, lower quality of antenatal care and higher levels of social vulnerability. Syphilis infection showed to be an indicator of social vulnerability in free women, but not in incarcerated women. Health initiatives in prison are necessary to reduce healthcare inequalities and should include adequate antenatal and birth care.

  12. Incidence and risk factors for new-onset diabetes in HIV-infected patients: the Data Collection on Adverse Events of Anti-HIV Drugs (D:A:D) study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    De Wit, Stephane; Sabin, Caroline A; Weber, Rainer

    2008-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: The aims of this study were to determine the incidence of diabetes among HIV-infected patients in the Data Collection on Adverse Events of Anti-HIV Drugs (D:A:D) cohort, to identify demographic, HIV-related, and combination antiretroviral therapy (cART)-related factors associated...... with the onset of diabetes, and to identify possible mechanisms for any relationships found. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: D:A:D is a prospective observational study of 33,389 HIV-infected patients; diabetes is a study end point. Poisson regression models were used to assess the relation between diabetes...

  13. HIV, syphilis and heterosexual bridging among Peruvian men who have sex with men.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tabet, Stephen; Sanchez, Jorge; Lama, Javier; Goicochea, Pedro; Campos, Pablo; Rouillon, Manuel; Cairo, Jose Luis; Ueda, Lucia; Watts, Douglas; Celum, Connie; Holmes, King K

    2002-06-14

    To determine prevalence of and risk factors associated with HIV and syphilis seropositivity and estimate incidence of HIV infection among Peruvian men who have sex with men (MSM) and characterize behaviors of men who report sex with both men and women ('bridgers'). Cross-sectional study of MSM in Lima, Peru. Four-hundred and fifty-one MSM (of whom 442 responded to the question regarding sexual orientation) recruited through street outreach. Each was interviewed and underwent serologic testing for syphilis and HIV, including the less sensitive enzyme immunoassay test to estimate HIV incidence. Overall, HIV and syphilis prevalence were 18.5% and 16.0%, respectively, with highest prevalence among cross-dressers (33.3% and 51.1%, respectively). The estimated overall HIV seroincidence was 11.2% per year (95% confidence interval, 4.8-23.6). Overall, 47.1% of men reported ever having sex with a woman: 78.6% of men self-identifying as heterosexuals, 85.1% of bisexuals, 35.5% of homosexuals, and 12.5% of cross-dressers. Of these, 26.5% were 'bridgers', of whom 55% reported two or more female partners during the last year. 'Bridgers' were less likely to have always used condoms during the past year for vaginal sex (17%) than for insertive anal sex with men (25.5%). Among MSM in Peru, HIV and syphilis prevalence and HIV incidence were high, especially among cross-dressers. The high prevalence of bisexuality and low rates of consistent condom use, especially with female sexual partners indicates potential HIV transmission into the heterosexual population.

  14. Testing the hypothesis that treatment can eliminate HIV

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Okano, Justin T; Robbins, Danielle; Palk, Laurence

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Worldwide, approximately 35 million individuals are infected with HIV; about 25 million of these live in sub-Saharan Africa. WHO proposes using treatment as prevention (TasP) to eliminate HIV. Treatment suppresses viral load, decreasing the probability an individual transmits HIV....... The elimination threshold is one new HIV infection per 1000 individuals. Here, we test the hypothesis that TasP can substantially reduce epidemics and eliminate HIV. We estimate the impact of TasP, between 1996 and 2013, on the Danish HIV epidemic in men who have sex with men (MSM), an epidemic UNAIDS has...... identified as a priority for elimination. METHODS: We use a CD4-staged Bayesian back-calculation approach to estimate incidence, and the hidden epidemic (the number of HIV-infected undiagnosed MSM). To develop the back-calculation model, we use data from an ongoing nationwide population-based study...

  15. Estimating a population cumulative incidence under calendar time trends

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Stefan N; Overgaard, Morten; Andersen, Per K

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The risk of a disease or psychiatric disorder is frequently measured by the age-specific cumulative incidence. Cumulative incidence estimates are often derived in cohort studies with individuals recruited over calendar time and with the end of follow-up governed by a specific date...... by calendar time trends, the total sample Kaplan-Meier and Aalen-Johansen estimators do not provide useful estimates of the general risk in the target population. We present some alternatives to this type of analysis. RESULTS: We show how a proportional hazards model may be used to extrapolate disease risk...... estimates if proportionality is a reasonable assumption. If not reasonable, we instead advocate that a more useful description of the disease risk lies in the age-specific cumulative incidence curves across strata given by time of entry or perhaps just the end of follow-up estimates across all strata...

  16. Interim data monitoring to enroll higher-risk participants in HIV prevention trials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Umo-Otong John

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Lower-than-expected incidence of HIV undermines sample size calculations and compromises the power of a HIV prevention trial. We evaluated the effectiveness of interim monitoring of HIV infection rates and on-going modification of recruitment strategies to enroll women at higher risk of HIV in the Cellulose Sulfate Phase III study in Nigeria. Methods We analyzed prevalence and incidence of HIV and other sexually transmitted infections, demographic and sexual behavior characteristics aggregated over the treatment groups on a quarterly basis. The site investigators were advised on their recruitment strategies based on the findings of the interim analyses. Results A total of 3619 women were screened and 1644 enrolled at the Ikeja and Apapa clinics in Lagos, and at the Central and Peripheral clinics in Port Harcourt. Twelve months after study initiation, the overall incidence of HIV was less than one-third of the pre-study assumption, with rates of HIV that varied substantially between clinics. Due to the low prevalence and incidence rates of HIV, it was decided to close the Ikeja clinic in Lagos and to find new catchment areas in Port Harcourt. This strategy was associated with an almost two-fold increase in observed HIV incidence during the second year of the study. Conclusion Given the difficulties in estimating HIV incidence, a close monitoring of HIV prevalence and incidence rates during a trial is warranted. The on-going modification of recruitment strategies based on the regular analysis of HIV rates appeared to be an efficient method for targeting populations at greatest risk of HIV infection and increasing study power in the Nigeria trial. Trial Registration The trial was registered with the ClinicalTrials.gov registry under #NCT00120770 http://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT00120770

  17. Risk of myocardial infarction in parents of HIV-infected individuals: a population-based cohort study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Line D; Omland, Lars H; Pedersen, Court

    2010-01-01

    associated with the HIV disease and HAART or whether life-style related or genetic factors also increase the risk in this population. To establish whether the increased risk of myocardial infarction in HIV patients partly reflects an increased risk of MI in their families, we estimated the relative risk...... of MI in parents of HIV-infected individuals METHODS: From the Danish HIV Cohort Study and the Danish Civil Registration System we identified the parents of all HIV-infected patients born in Denmark after 1952 in whom a Danish born mother was identifiable. For each HIV patient, 4 matched population...... controls and their parents were identified. Cumulative incidence functions were constructed to illustrate time to first MI of the parents as registered in the Danish National Hospital Registry. Incidence rate ratios (IRR) were estimated by Cox's regression analyses. Due to the confidential type...

  18. Poppers use and Sexual Partner Concurrency Increase the HIV Incidence of MSM: a 24-month Prospective Cohort Survey in Shenyang, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chu, Zhen-Xing; Xu, Jun-Jie; Zhang, Yong-Hui; Zhang, Jing; Hu, Qing-Hai; Yun, Ke; Wang, Hong-Yi; Jiang, Yong-Jun; Geng, Wen-Qing; Shang, Hong

    2018-01-08

    The use of poppers is highly prevalent in MSM, but little is known about the association between their use and HIV incidence in China. A prospective cohort study was conducted from 2011 to 2013 in MSM in Shenyang. 475(79.6%) of eligible HIV-negative MSM participated in this prospective survey and near one fourth MSM (23.4%) ever used poppers. About one-third of the participants had condomless anal intercourse, half had multiple sexual partners and 10.5% were syphilis positive. The HIV incidence densities were15.5 (95% CI:9.4-23.4)/100 PY[person-years]) and 4.6 (95% CI:2.9-7.0)/100 PY in poppers-users and non-poppers-users, respectively. Predictors of HIV seroconversion included poppers-using-behavior, having had more than two male partners, practicing group sex, unprotected anal intercourse(UAI) with male partners, and baseline syphilis positivity (all P poppers, high-risk-sexual behaviors and syphilis infection significantly increase the HIV incidence among Shenyang MSM. It is essential for policy makers to add poppers to the official controlled illicit drug list to reduce HIV transmission among the MSM community. A comprehensive strategy should also be implemented to control both their high-risk-sexual behaviors and risk of syphilis infection, since these may represent novel ways to prevent new HIV infections in these MSM.

  19. Cost-effectiveness estimates for antenatal HIV testing in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rozenbaum, M. H.; Verweel, G.; Folkerts, D. K. F.; Dronkers, F.; van den Hoek, J. A. R.; Hartwig, N. G.; de Groot, R.; Postma, M. J.

    2008-01-01

    This paper provides an estimation of the lifetime health-care cost of HIV-infected children and an update of the cost-effectiveness of universal HIV-screening of pregnant women in Amsterdam (The Netherlands). During 2003-2005, we collected data concerning the prevalence of newly diagnosed

  20. HIV Incidence Remains High in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa: Evidence from Three Districts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nel, Annaléne; Mabude, Zonke; Smit, Jenni; Kotze, Philip; Arbuckle, Derek; Wu, Jian; van Niekerk, Neliëtte; van de Wijgert, Janneke

    2012-01-01

    Background: HIV prevalence and incidence among sexually active women in peri-urban areas of Ladysmith, Edendale, and Pinetown, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, were assessed between October 2007 and February 2010 in preparation for vaginal microbicide trials. Methodology/Principal Findings: Sexually

  1. Estimated numbers of men and women infected with HIV/AIDS in Tijuana, Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brouwer, Kimberly C; Strathdee, Steffanie A; Magis-Rodríguez, Carlos; Bravo-García, Enrique; Gayet, Cecilia; Patterson, Thomas L; Bertozzi, Stefano M; Hogg, Robert S

    2006-03-01

    Tijuana, Mexico, just south of San Diego, California, is located by the busiest land border crossing in the world. Although UNAIDS considers Mexico to be a country of "low prevalence, high risk," recent surveillance data among sentinel populations in Tijuana suggests HIV prevalence is increasing. The aim of this study was to estimate the number of men and women aged 15 to 49 years infected with HIV in Tijuana. Gender and age-specific estimates of the Tijuana population were obtained from the 2000 Mexican census. Population and HIV prevalence estimates for at-risk groups were obtained from published reports, community based studies, and data from the Centro Nacional para la Prevención y Control del VIH/SIDA (CENSIDA). Age-specific fertility rates for Mexico were used to derive the number of low and high-risk pregnant women. Numbers of HIV-positive men and women were estimated for each at-risk group and then aggregated. A high growth scenario based on current HIV prevalence and a conservative, low growth estimate were determined. A total of 686,600 men and women in Tijuana were aged 15 to 49 years at the time of the 2000 census. Considering both scenarios, the number of infected persons ranged from 1,803 to 5,472 (HIV prevalence: 0.26 to 0.80%). The majority of these persons were men (>70%). The largest number of infected persons were MSM (N = 1,146 to 3,300) and IDUs (N = 147 to 650). Our data suggest that up to one in every 125 persons aged 15-49 years in Tijuana is HIV-infected. Interventions to reduce ongoing spread of HIV are urgently needed.

  2. Educational attainment and risk of HIV infection, response to antiretroviral treatment, and mortality in HIV-infected patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Legarth, Rebecca; Omland, Lars H; Kronborg, Gitte

    2014-01-01

    .0 (95% CI 1.2-3.4) for population controls with low educational attainment compared with medium and high educational attainment. CONCLUSION: With free and equal access to healthcare, low educational attainment might increase risk of HIV infection among heterosexual individuals, but was not associated......OBJECTIVE: To estimate association between educational attainment and risk of HIV diagnosis, response to HAART, all-cause, and cause-specific mortality in Denmark in 1998-2009. DESIGN: Prospective, population-based cohort study including 1277 incident HIV-infected patients without hepatitis C virus...... or intravenous drug abuse identified in the Danish HIV Cohort Study and 5108 individually matched population controls. METHODS: Data on educational attainment, categorized as low, medium, or high, were identified in The Danish Attainment Register. Logistic and Poisson regression were used to estimate odds ratios...

  3. Estimating the size of the HIV epidemic among injecting drug users in Amsterdam

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Haastrecht, H. J.; Bindels, P. J.; van den Hoek, A. A.; Coutinho, R. A.

    1997-01-01

    Aim of this study was to assess the cumulative incidence of HIV-infection, AIDS and pre-AIDS death in the population of injecting drug users (IDU) in Amsterdam. By assuming equivalence, between a cohort of IDU and the IDU population, of the ratios of incidences of AIDS and pre-AIDS death to the

  4. High HIV incidence in men who have sex with men attending for postexposure prophylaxis: a service evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitlock, G; McCormack, C; Fearnley, J; McOwan, A

    2017-05-01

    There are limited outcome data for men who have sex with men (MSM) who have received HIV postexposure prophylaxis (PEP). The objective of this service evaluation was to determine HIV incidence and repeat PEP use among MSM PEP recipients in London, UK. Retrospective electronic case-note review of all MSM who were prescribed PEP between January and April 2013 at a central London sexual health service. 530 MSM received PEP between 1 January and 30 June 2013. Of these, 449 had more than 30 days subsequent follow-up at our service. Median age was 31 years. PEP indication was unprotected anal intercourse, 98% (receptive 88% and insertive 10%) and other, 2%. Up to 1 November 2015, total follow-up was 756 person-years. 183 users received repeat PEP. The total number of repeat PEP courses was 442. 57 MSM newly acquired HIV: the HIV incidence was 7.6 per 100 person-years. PEP was associated with a high risk of subsequent HIV seroconversion in this cohort; this group may be appropriate candidates for pre-exposure prophylaxis. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

  5. Estimating the cost to U.S. health departments to conduct HIV surveillance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shrestha, Ram K; Sansom, Stephanie L; Laffoon, Benjamin T; Farnham, Paul G; Shouse, R Luke; MacMaster, Karen; Hall, H Irene

    2014-01-01

    HIV case surveillance is a primary source of information for monitoring HIV burden in the United States and guiding the allocation of prevention and treatment funds. While the number of people living with HIV and the need for surveillance data have increased, little is known about the cost of surveillance. We estimated the economic cost to health departments of conducting high-quality HIV case surveillance. We collected primary data on the unit cost and quantity of resources used to operate the HIV case surveillance program in Michigan, where HIV burden (i.e., the number of HIV cases) is moderate to high (n=14,864 cases). Based on Michigan's data, we projected the expected annual HIV surveillance cost for U.S., state, local, and territorial health departments. We based our cost projection on the variation in the number of new and established cases, area-specific wages, and potential economies of scale. We estimated the annual total HIV surveillance cost to the Michigan health department to be $1,286,524 ($87/case), the annual total cost of new cases to be $108,657 ($133/case), and the annual total cost of established cases to be $1,177,867 ($84/case). Our projected median annual HIV surveillance cost per health department ranged from $210,600 in low-HIV burden sites to $1,835,000 in high-HIV burden sites. Our analysis shows that a systematic approach to costing HIV surveillance at the health department level is feasible. For HIV surveillance, a substantial portion of total surveillance costs is attributable to maintaining established cases.

  6. Increased risk of dialysis and end-stage renal disease among HIV patients in Denmark compared with the background population

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasch, Magnus G; Helleberg, Marie; Feldt-Rasmussen, Bo

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND: HIV patients have increased risk of impaired renal function. We aimed to estimate the incidence of any renal replacement therapy (aRRT) and start of chronic renal replacement therapy (cRRT) among HIV patients compared with population controls. METHODS: In a nationwide, population......-based cohort study we analysed incidence rates (IR), incidence rate ratios (IRR) and risk factors for aRRT and cRRT among HIV patients compared with an age- and gender-matched population control cohort using Poisson regression. RESULTS: We identified 5300 HIV patients and 53 000 population controls. The IRs...

  7. The role of antiretroviral therapy in reducing TB incidence and mortality in high HIV-TB burden countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anthony D Harries

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available With the adoption of the new Sustainable Development Goals in 2016, all countries have committed to end the tuberculosis (TB epidemic by 2030, defined as dramatic reductions in TB incidence and mortality combined with zero TB-induced catastrophic costs for families. This paper explores how antiretroviral therapy (ART in high HIV-TB burden countries may help in reducing TB incidence and mortality and thus contribute to the ambitious goal of ending TB. ART in people living with HIV has a potent TB preventive effect, with this being most apparent in those with the most advanced immunodeficiency. Early ART also significantly reduces the risk of TB, and with new World Health Organization guidance released in 2015 about initiating ART in all persons living with HIV irrespective of CD4 count, there is the potential for enormous benefit at the population level. Already, several countries with high HIVTB burdens have seen dramatic declines in TB case notification rates since ART scale up started in 2004. In patients already diagnosed with HIV-associated TB, mortality can be significantly decreased by ART, especially if started within 2–8 weeks of anti-TB treatment. The benefits of ART on TB incidence and TB mortality can be further augmented respectively by the addition of isoniazid preventive therapy and cotrimoxazole preventive therapy. These interventions must be effectively implemented and scaled up in order to end the TB epidemic by 2030.

  8. HIV epidemic drivers in South Africa: A model-based evaluation of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background: HIV prevalence differs substantially between South Africa's provinces, but the factors accounting for this difference are poorly understood. Objectives: To estimate HIV prevalence and incidence trends by province, and to identify the epidemiological factors that account for most of the variation between provinces ...

  9. Increasing risk behaviour can outweigh the benefits of antiretroviral drug treatment on the HIV incidence among men-having-sex-with-men in Amsterdam

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhu Yifan

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The transmission through contacts among MSM (men who have sex with men is one of the dominating contributors to HIV prevalence in industrialized countries. In Amsterdam, the capital of the Netherlands, the MSM risk group has been traced for decades. This has motivated studies which provide detailed information about MSM's risk behavior statistically, psychologically and sociologically. Despite the era of potent antiretroviral therapy, the incidence of HIV among MSM increases. In the long term the contradictory effects of risk behavior and effective therapy are still poorly understood. Methods Using a previously presented Complex Agent Network model, we describe steady and casual partnerships to predict the HIV spreading among MSM. Behavior-related parameters and values, inferred from studies on Amsterdam MSM, are fed into the model; we validate the model using historical yearly incidence data. Subsequently, we study scenarios to assess the contradictory effects of risk behavior and effective therapy, by varying corresponding values of parameters. Finally, we conduct quantitative analysis based on the resulting incidence data. Results The simulated incidence reproduces the ACS historical incidence well and helps to predict the HIV epidemic among MSM in Amsterdam. Our results show that in the long run the positive influence of effective therapy can be outweighed by an increase in risk behavior of at least 30% for MSM. Conclusion We recommend, based on the model predictions, that lowering risk behavior is the prominent control mechanism of HIV incidence even in the presence of effective therapy.

  10. Impact of antiretroviral therapy on tuberculosis incidence among HIV-positive patients in high-income countries

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    del Amo, Julia; Moreno, Santiago; Bucher, Heiner C.; Furrer, Hansjakob; Logan, Roger; Sterne, Jonathan; Pérez-Hoyos, Santiago; Jarrín, Inma; Phillips, Andrew; Lodi, Sara; van Sighem, Ard; de Wolf, Frank; Sabin, Caroline; Bansi, Loveleen; Justice, Amy; Goulet, Joseph; Miró, José M.; Ferrer, Elena; Meyer, Laurence; Seng, Rémonie; Toulomi, Giota; Gargalianos, Panagiotis; Costagliola, Dominique; Abgrall, Sophie; Hernán, Miguel A.; Ainsworth, J.; Anderson, J.; Babiker, A.; Delpech, V.; Dunn, D.; Easterbrook, P.; Fisher, M.; Gazzard, B.; Gilson, R.; Gompels, M.; Hill, T.; Johnson, M.; Leen, C.; Orkin, C.; Phillips, A.; Pillay, D.; Porter, K.; Sabin, C.; Schwenk, A.; Walsh, J.; Bansi, L.; Glabay, A.; Thomas, R.; Jones, K.; Perry, N.; Pullin, A.; Churchill, D.; Nelson, M.; Asboe, D.; Bulbeck, S.; Mandalia, S.; Clarke, J.; Munshi, S.; Post, F.; Khan, Y.; Patel, P.; Karim, F.; Duffell, S.; Man, S.-L.; Williams, I.; Dooley, D.; Youle, M.; Lampe, F.; Smith, C.; Grabowska, H.; Chaloner, C.; Ismajani Puradiredja, D.; Weber, J.; Kemble, C.; Mackie, N.; Winston, A.; Wilson, A.; Bezemer, D. O.; Gras, L. A. J.; Kesselring, A. M.; van Sighem, A. I.; Smit, C.; Zhang, S.; Zaheri, S.; Prins, J. M.; Boer, K.; Bos, J. C.; Geerlings, S. E.; Godfried, M. H.; Haverkort, M. E.; Kuijpers, T. W.; Lange, J. M. A.; van der Meer, J. T. M.; Nellen, F. J. B.; Pajkrt, D.; van der Poll, T.; Reiss, P.; Scherpbier, H. J.; van der Valk, M.; Wit, F. W. M. N.; Vrouenraets, S. M. E.; van Vugt, M.; Schreij, G.; Lowe, S.; Oude Lashof, A.; Bravenboer, B.; Pronk, M. J. H.; van der Ende, M. E.; van der Feltz, M.; Gelinck, L. B. S.; Nouwen, J. L.; Rijnders, B. J. A.; de Ruiter, E. D.; Slobbe, L.; Schurink, C. A. M.; Verbon, A.; de Vries-Sluijs, T. E. M. S.; Driessen, G.; Hartwig, N. G.; Branger, J.; Kauffmann, R. H.; Schippers, E. F.; Groeneveld, P. H. P.; Alleman, M. A.; Bouwhuis, J. W.; ten Kate, R. W.; Soetekouw, R.; Kroon, F. P.; Arend, S. M.; de Boer, M. G. J.; van den Broek, P. J.; van Dissel, J. T.; Jolink, H.; van Nieuwkoop, C.; den Hollander, J. G.; Pogany, K.; Bronsveld, W.; Kortmann, W.; van Twillert, G.; Vriesendorp, R.; Leyten, E. M. S.; van Houte, D.; Polée, M. B.; van Vonderen, M. G. A.; ten Napel, C. H. H.; Kootstra, G. J.; Brinkman, K.; van den Berk, G. E. L.; Blok, W. L.; Frissen, P. H. J.; Schouten, W. E. M.; van Eeden, A.; Verhagen, D. W. M.; Mulder, J. W.; van Gorp, E. C. M.; Smit, P. M.; Weijer, S.; Juttmann, J. R.; Brouwer, A. E.; van Kasteren, M. E. E.; Veenstra, J.; Lettinga, K. D.; Koopmans, P. P.; Brouwer, A. M.; Dofferhoff, A. S. M.; van der Flier, M.; de Groot, R.; ter Hofstede, H. J. M.; Keuter, M.; van der Ven, A. J. A. M.; Sprenger, H. G.; van Assen, S.; Doedens, R.; Scholvinck, E. H.; Stek, C. J.; Hoepelman, A. I. M.; Arends, J. E.; Ellerbroek, P. M.; van der Hilst, J. C. H.; Jaspers, C. A. J. J.; Maarschalk-Ellerbroek, L. J.; Oosterheert, J. J.; Peters, E. J. G.; Mudrikova, T.; Schneider, M. M. E.; Wassenberg, M. W. M.; Geelen, S. P. M.; Wolfs, T. F. W.; Danner, S. A.; van Agtmael, M. A.; Bierman, W. F. W.; Claessen, F. A. P.; de Jong, E. V.; Perenboom, R. M.; bij de Vaate, E. A.; Richter, C.; van der Berg, J.; Gisolf, E. H.; van den Berge, M.; Stegeman, A.; Duits, A. J.; Winkel, K.; Abgrall, S.; Barin, F.; Bentata, M.; Billaud, E.; Boué, F.; Burty, C.; Cabié, A.; Costagliola, D.; Cotte, L.; de Truchis, P.; Duval, X.; Duvivier, C.; Enel, P.; Fredouille-Heripret, L.; Gasnault, J.; Gaud, C.; Gilquin, J.; Grabar, S.; Katlama, C.; Khuong, M. A.; Lang, J. M.; Lascaux, A. S.; Launay, O.; Mahamat, A.; Mary-Krause, M.; Matheron, S.; Meynard, J. L.; Pavie, J.; Pialoux, G.; Pilorgé, F.; Poizot-Martin, I.; Pradier, C.; Reynes, J.; Rouveix, E.; Simon, A.; Tattevin, P.; Tissot-Dupont, H.; Viard, J. P.; Viget, N.; Jacquemet, N.; Guiguet, M.; Lanoy, E.; Lièvre, L.; Selinger-Leneman, H.; Lacombe, J. M.; Potard, V.; Bricaire, F.; Herson, S.; Desplanque, N.; Girard, P. M.; Meyohas, M. C.; Picard, O.; Cadranel, J.; Mayaud, C.; Clauvel, J. P.; Decazes, J. M.; Gerard, L.; Molina, J. M.; Diemer, M.; Sellier, P.; Honoré, P.; Jeantils, V.; Tassi, S.; Mechali, D.; Taverne, B.; Bouvet, E.; Crickx, B.; Ecobichon, J. L.; Picard-Dahan, C.; Yeni, P.; Berthé, H.; Dupont, C.; Chandemerle, C.; Mortier, E.; Tisne-Dessus, D.; Weiss, L.; Salmon, D.; Auperin, I.; Roudière, L.; Fior, R.; Delfraissy, J. F.; Goujard, C.; Jung, C.; Lesprit, Ph; Vittecoq, D.; Fraisse, P.; Rey, D.; Beck-Wirth, G.; Stahl, J. P.; Lecercq, P.; Gourdon, F.; Laurichesse, H.; Fresard, A.; Lucht, F.; Bazin, C.; Verdon, R.; Chavanet, P.; Arvieux, C.; Michelet, C.; Choutet, P.; Goudeau, A.; Maître, M. F.; Hoen, B.; Eglinger, P.; Faller, J. P.; Borsa-Lebas, F.; Caron, F.; Daures, J. P.; May, T.; Rabaud, C.; Berger, J. L.; Rémy, G.; Arlet-Suau, E.; Cuzin, L.; Massip, P.; Thiercelin Legrand, M. F.; Pontonnier, G.; Yasdanpanah, Y.; Dellamonica, P.; Pugliese, P.; Aleksandrowicz, K.; Quinsat, D.; Ravaux, I.; Delmont, J. P.; Moreau, J.; Gastaut, J. A.; Retornaz, F.; Soubeyrand, J.; Galinier, A.; Ruiz, J. M.; Allegre, T.; Blanc, P. A.; Bonnet-Montchardon, D.; Lepeu, G.; Granet-Brunello, P.; Esterni, J. P.; Pelissier, L.; Cohen-Valensi, R.; Nezri, M.; Chadapaud, S.; Laffeuillade, A.; Raffi, F.; Boibieux, A.; Peyramond, D.; Livrozet, J. M.; Touraine, J. L.; Trepo, C.; Strobel, M.; Saint-Martin, C. H.; Bissuel, F.; Pradinaud, R.; Sobesky, M.; Contant, M.; Aebi, C.; Battegay, M.; Bernasconi, E.; Böni, J.; Brazzola, P.; Bucher, H. C.; Bürgisser, Ph; Calmy, A.; Cattacin, S.; Cavassini, M.; Cheseaux, J.-J.; Drack, G.; Dubs, R.; Egger, M.; Elzi, L.; Fischer, M.; Flepp, M.; Fontana, A.; Francioli, P.; Furrer, H. J.; Fux, C.; Gayet-Ageron, A.; Gerber, S.; Gorgievski, M.; Günthard, H.; Gyr, Th; Hirsch, H.; Hirschel, B.; Hösli, I.; Hüsler, M.; Kaiser, L.; Kahlert, Ch; Karrer, U.; Kind, C.; Klimkait, Th; Ledergerber, B.; Martinetti, G.; Martinez, B.; Müller, N.; Nadal, D.; Paccaud, F.; Pantaleo, G.; Raio, L.; Rauch, A.; Regenass, S.; Rickenbach, M.; Rudin, C.; Schmid, P.; Schultze, D.; Schüpbach, J.; Speck, R.; Taffé, P.; Telenti, A.; Trkola, A.; Vernazza, P.; Weber, R.; Wyler, C.-A.; Yerly, S.; Casabona, J.; Miró, J. M.; Alquézar, A.; Isern, V.; Esteve, A.; Podzamczer, D.; Murillas, J.; Gatell, J. M.; Agüero, F.; Tural, C.; Clotet, B.; Ferrer, E.; Segura, F.; Riera, M.; Navarro, G.; Force, L.; Vilaró, J.; Masabeu, A.; García, I.; Guadarrama, M.; Romero, A.; Agustí, C.; Montoliu, A.; Ortega, N.; Lazzari, E.; Puchol, E.; Sanchez, M.; Blanco, J. L.; Garcia-Alcaide, F.; Mallolas, J.; Martínez, E.; López-Dieguez, M.; García-Goez, J. F.; Sirera, G.; Romeu, J.; Jou E Negredo, A.; Miranda, C.; Capitan, M. C.; Olmo, M.; Barragan, P.; Saumoy, M.; Bolao, F.; Cabellos, C.; Peña, C.; Sala, M.; Cervantes, M.; Navarro, M.; Jose Amengual, M.; Penelo, E.; Barrufet, P.; Berenguer, J.; del Amo, J.; García, F.; Gutiérrez, F.; Labarga, P.; Moreno, S.; Muñoz, M. A.; Sobrino, P.; Alejos, B.; Monge, S.; Hernando, V.; Alvarez, D.; Jarrín, I.; Gómez Sirvent, J. L.; Rodríguez, P.; Alemán, M. R.; Alonso, M. M.; López, A. M.; Hernández, M. I.; Soriano, V.; Barreiro, P.; Medrano, J.; Rivas, P.; Herrero, D.; Blanco, F.; Vispo, M. E.; Martín, L.; Ramírez, G.; de Diego, M.; Rubio, R.; Pulido, F.; Moreno, V.; Cepeda, C.; Hervás, R. l; Iribarren, J. A.; Arrizabalaga, J.; Aramburu, M. J.; Camino, X.; Rodríguez-Arrondo, F.; von Wichmann, M. A.; Pascual, L.; Goenaga, M. A.; Masiá, M.; Ramos, J. M.; Padilla, S.; Sánchez-Hellín, V.; Bernal, E.; Escolano, C.; Montolio, F.; Peral, Y.; López, J. C.; Miralles, P.; Cosín, J.; Sánchez, M.; Gutiérrez, I.; Ramírez, M.; Padilla, B.; Vidal, F.; Sanjuan, M.; Peraire, J.; Veloso, S.; Viladés, C.; López-Dupla, M.; Olona, M.; Vargas, M.; Aldeguer, J. L.; Blanes, M.; Lacruz, J.; Salavert, M.; Montero, M.; Cuéllar, S.; de los Santos, I.; Sanz, J.; Oteo, J. A.; Blanco, J. R.; Ibarra, V.; Metola, L.; Sanz, M.; Pérez-Martínez, L.; Sola, J.; Uriz, J.; Castiello, J.; Reparaz, J.; Arriaza, M. J.; Irigoyen, C.; Antela, A.; Casado, J. L.; Dronda, F.; Moreno, A.; Pérez, M. J.; López, D.; Gutiérrez, C.; Hernández, B.; Pumares, M.; Martí, P.; García, L.; Page, C.; Hernández, J.; Peña, A.; Muñoz, L.; Parra, J.; Viciana, P.; Leal, M.; López-Cortés, L. F.; Trastoy, M.; Mata, R.; Justice, A. C.; Fiellin, D. A.; Rimland, D.; Jones-Taylor, C.; Oursler, K. A.; Titanji, R.; Brown, S.; Garrison, S.; Rodriguez-Barradas, M.; Masozera, N.; Goetz, M.; Leaf, D.; Simberkoff, M.; Blumenthal, D.; Leung, J.; Butt, A.; Hoffman, E.; Gibert, C.; Peck, R.; Mattocks, K.; Braithwaite, S.; Brandt, C.; Bryant, K.; Cook, R.; Conigliaro, J.; Crothers, K.; Chang, J.; Crystal, S.; Day, N.; Erdos, J.; Freiberg, M.; Kozal, M.; Gandhi, N.; Gaziano, M.; Gerschenson, M.; Good, B.; Gordon, A.; Goulet, J. L.; Hernán, M. A.; Kraemer, K.; Lim, J.; Maisto, S.; Miller, P.; Mole, L.; O'Connor, P.; Papas, R.; Robins, J. M.; Rinaldo, C.; Roberts, M.; Samet, J.; Tierney, B.; Whittle, J.; Brettle, R.; Darbyshire, J.; Fidler, S.; Goldberg, D.; Hawkins, D.; Jaffe, H.; Johnson, A.; McLean, K.; Porter, Kholoud; Cursley, Adam; Ewings, Fiona; Fairbrother, Keith; Gnatiuc, Louisa; Murphy, Brendan; Douglas, G.; Kennedy, N.; Pritchard, J.; Andrady, U.; Rajda, N.; Maw, R.; McKernan, S.; Drake, S.; Gilleran, G.; White, D.; Ross, J.; Toomer, S.; Hewart, R.; Wilding, H.; Woodward, R.; Dean, G.; Heald, L.; Horner, P.; Glover, S.; Bansaal, D.; Eduards, S.; Carne, C.; Browing, M.; Das, R.; Stanley, B.; Estreich, S.; Magdy, A.; O'Mahony, C.; Fraser, P.; Hayman, B.; Jebakumar, S. P. R.; Joshi, U.; Ralph, S.; Wade, A.; Mette, R.; Lalik, J.; Summerfield, H.; El-Dalil, A.; France, A. J.; White, C.; Robertson, R.; Gordon, S.; McMillan, S.; Morris, S.; Lean, C.; Vithayathil, K.; McLean, L.; Winter, A.; Gale, D.; Jacobs, S.; Tayal, S.; Short, L.; Green, S.; Williams, G.; Sivakumar, K.; Bhattacharyya, D. N.; Monteiro, E.; Minton, J.; Dhar, J.; Nye, F.; DeSouza, C. B.; Isaksen, A.; McDonald, L.; Franca, A.; William, L.; Jendrulek, I.; Peters, B.; Shaunak, S.; El-Gadi, S.; Easterbrook, P. J.; Mazhude, C.; Johnstone, R.; Fakoya, A.; Mchale, J.; Waters, A.; Kegg, S.; Mitchell, S.; Byrne, P.; Rice, P.; Mullaney, S. A.; McCormack, S.; David, D.; Melville, R.; Phillip, K.; Balachandran, T.; Mabey-Puttock, S.; Sukthankar, A.; Murphy, C.; Wilkins, E.; Ahmad, S.; Haynes, J.; Evans, E.; Ong, E.; Grey, R.; Meaden, J.; Bignell, C.; Loay, D.; Peacock, K.; Girgis, M. R.; Morgan, B.; Palfreeman, A.; Wilcox, J.; Tobin, J.; Tucker, L.; Saeed, A. M.; Chen, F.; Deheragada, A.; Williams, O.; Lacey, H.; Herman, S.; Kinghorn, D.; Devendra, S. V.; Wither, J.; Dawson, S.; Rowen, D.; Harvey, J.; Bridgwood, A.; Singh, G.; Chauhan, M.; Kellock, D.; Young, S.; Dannino, S.; Kathir, Y.; Rooney, G.; Currie, J.; Fitzgerald, M.; Devendra, S.; Keane, F.; Booth, G.; Green, T.; Arumainayyagam, J.; Chandramani, S.; Rajamanoharan, S.; Robinson, T.; Curless, E.; Gokhale, R.; Tariq, A.; Luzzi, G.; Fairley, I.; Wallis, F.; Smit, E.; Ward, F.; Loze, B.; Morlat, P.; Bonarek, M.; Bonnet, F.; Nouts, C.; Louis, I.; Reliquet, V.; Sauser, F.; Biron, C.; Mounoury, O.; Hue, H.; Brosseau, D.; Ghosn, J.; Rannou, M. T.; Bergmann, J. F.; Badsi, E.; Rami, A.; Parrinello, M.; Samanon-Bollens, D.; Campa, P.; Tourneur, M.; Desplanques, N.; Jeanblanc, F.; Chiarello, P.; Makhloufi, D.; Blanc, A. P.; Allègre, T.; Baillat, V.; Lemoing, V.; Merle de Boever, C.; Tramoni, C.; Sobesky, G.; Abel, S.; Beaujolais, V.; Slama, L.; Chakvetadze, C.; Berrebi, V.; Fournier, I.; Gerbe, J.; Koffi, K.; Augustin-Normand, C.; Miailhes, P.; Thoirain, V.; Brochier, C.; Souala, F.; Ratajczak, M.; Beytoux, J.; Jacomet, C.; Montpied, G.; Morelon, S.; Olivier, C.; Lortholary, O.; Dupont, B.; Maignan, A.; Ragnaud, J. M.; Raymond, I.; Leport, C.; Jadand, C.; Jestin, C.; Longuet, P.; Boucherit, S.; Sereni, D.; Lascoux, C.; Prevoteau, F.; Sobel, A.; Levy, Y.; Lelièvre, J. D.; Dominguez, S.; Dumont, C.; Aumaître, H.; Delmas, B.; Saada, M.; Medus, M.; Guillevin, L.; Tahi, T.; Yazdanpanah, Y.; Pavel, S.; Marien, M. C.; Drenou, B.; Beck, C.; Benomar, M.; Muller, E.; Tubiana, R.; Ait Mohand, H.; Chermak, A.; Ben Abdallah, S.; Touam, F.; Drobacheff, C.; Folzer, A.; Obadia, M.; Prudhomme, L.; Bonnet, E.; Balzarin, F.; Pichard, E.; Chennebault, J. M.; Fialaire, P.; Loison, J.; Galanaud, P.; Bornarel, D.; Six, M.; Ferret, P.; Batisse, D.; Gonzales-Canali, G.; Devidas, A.; Chevojon, P.; Turpault, I.; Lafeuillade, A.; Cheret, A.; Philip, G.; Morel, P.; Timsit, J.; Amirat, N.; Brancion, C.; Cabane, J.; Tredup, J.; Stein, A.; Ravault, I.; Chavanet, C.; Buisson, M.; Treuvetot, S.; Nau, P.; Bastides, F.; Boyer, L.; Wassoumbou, S.; Oksenhendeler, E.; Gérard, L.; Bernard, L.; Poincaré, R.; Domart, Y.; Merrien, D.; Greder Belan, A.; Mignot, A.; Gayraud, M.; Bodard, L.; Meudec, A.; Beuscart, C.; Daniel, C.; Pape, E.; Vinceneux, P.; Simonpoli, A. M.; Zeng, A.; Mourier, L.; Fournier, L.; Jacquet, M.; Fuzibet, J. G.; Sohn, C.; Rosenthal, E.; Quaranta, M.; Chaillou, S.; Sabah, M.; Audhuy, B.; Schieber, A.; Pasteur, L.; Moreau, P.; Niault, M.; Vaillant, O.; Huchon, G.; Compagnucci, A.; de Lacroix Szmania, I.; Richier, L.; Lamaury, I.; Saint-Dizier, F.; Garipuy, D.; Drogoul, M. P.; Poizot Martin, I.; Fabre, G.; Lambert, G.; Abraham, B.; Perino, C.; Lagarde, P.; David, F.; Roche-Sicot, J.; Saraux, J. L.; Leprêtre, A.; Veil, S.; Fampin, B.; Uludag, A.; Morin, A. S.; Bletry, O.; Zucman, D.; Regnier, A.; Girard, J. J.; Quinsat, D. T.; Heripret, L.; Grihon, F.; Houlbert, D.; Ruel, M.; Chemlal, K.; Debab, Y.; Tremollieres, F.; Perronne, V.; Slama, B.; Perré, P.; Miodovski, C.; Guermonprez, G.; Dulioust, A.; Boudon, P.; Malbec, D.; Patey, O.; Semaille, C.; Deville, J.; Remy, G.; Béguinot, I.; Boue, F.; Chambrin, V.; Pignon, C.; Estocq, G. A.; Levy, A.; Duracinsky, M.; Le Bras, P.; Ngussan, M. S.; Peretti, D.; Medintzeff, N.; Lambert, T.; Segeral, O.; Lezeau, P.; Laurian, Y.; Piketty, C.; Karmochkine, M.; Eliaszewitch, M.; Jayle, D.; Tisne, D.; Kazatchkine, M.; Colasante, U.; Nouaouia, W.; Vilde, J. L.; Bollens, D.; Binet, D.; Diallo, B.; Fonquernie, L.; Lagneau, J. L.; Pietrie, M. P.; Sicard, D.; Stieltjes, N.; Michot, J.; Bourdillon, F.; Lelievre, J. D.; Obenga, G.; Escaut, L.; Bolliot, C.; Schneider, L.; Iguertsira, M.; Tomei, C.; Dhiver, C.; Tissot Dupont, H.; Vallon, A.; Gallais, J.; Gallais, H.; Durant, J.; Mondain, V.; Perbost, I.; Cassuto, J. P.; Karsenti, J. M.; Venti, H.; Ceppi, C.; Krivitsky, J. A.; Bouchaud, O.; Honore, P.; Delgado, J.; Rouzioux, C.; Burgard, M.; Boufassa, L.; Peynet, J.; Ferreros, I.; Hurtado, I.; González, C.; Caro, A. M.; Muga, R.; Sanvicens, A.; Tor, J.; del Romero, J.; Raposo, P.; Rodríguez, C.; Vera, M.; Garcia de Olalla, P.; Cayla, J.; Alastrue, I.; Belda, J.; Trullen, P.; Fernández, E.; Santos, C.; Tasa, T.; Zafra, T.; Guerrero, R.; Marco, A.; Quintana, M.; Ruiz, I.; Nuñez, R.; Pérez, R.; Castilla, J.; Guevara, M.; de Mendoza, C.; Zahonero, N.; Antoniadou, A.; Chrysos, G.; Daikos, G.; Gargalianos-Kakolyris, P.; Gogos, H. A.; Katsarou, O.; Kordossis, T.; Lazanas, M.; Nikolaidis, P.; Panos, G.; Paparizos, V.; Paraskevis, D.; Sambatakou, H.; Skoutelis, A.; Touloumi, G.; Pantazis, N.; Bakoyannis, G.; Vourli, G.; Gioukari, V.; Papadopoulos, A.; Petrikkos, G.; Paraskeva, D.; Hatziastros, P.; Psichogiou, M.; Xylomenos, G.; Maragos, M. N.; Kouramba, A.; Ioannidou, P.; Kontos, A.; Chini, M.; Tsogas, N.; Kolaras, P.; Metallidis, S.; Haratsis, G.; Leuow, K.; Kourkounti, S.; Mariolis, I.; Papastamopoulos, V.; Baraboutis, I.

    2012-01-01

    The lower tuberculosis incidence reported in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive individuals receiving combined antiretroviral therapy (cART) is difficult to interpret causally. Furthermore, the role of unmasking immune reconstitution inflammatory syndrome (IRIS) is unclear. We aim to

  11. Global burden of disease of HIV-associated cryptococcal meningitis: an updated analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajasingham, Radha; Smith, Rachel M; Park, Benjamin J; Jarvis, Joseph N; Govender, Nelesh P; Chiller, Tom M; Denning, David W; Loyse, Angela; Boulware, David R

    2018-01-01

    Summary Background Cryptococcus is the most common cause of meningitis in adults living with HIV in sub-Saharan Africa. Global burden estimates are crucial to guide prevention strategies and to determine treatment needs, and we aimed to provide an updated estimate of global incidence of HIV-associated cryptococcal disease. Methods We used 2014 Joint UN Programme on HIV and AIDS estimates of adults (aged >15 years) with HIV and antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage. Estimates of CD4 less than 100 cells per µL, virological failure incidence, and loss to follow-up were from published multinational cohorts in low-income and middle-income countries. We calculated those at risk for cryptococcal infection, specifically those with CD4 less than 100 cells/µL not on ART, and those with CD4 less than 100 cells per µL on ART but lost to follow-up or with virological failure. Cryptococcal antigenaemia prevalence by country was derived from 46 studies globally. Based on cryptococcal antigenaemia prevalence in each country and region, we estimated the annual numbers of people who are developing and dying from cryptococcal meningitis. Findings We estimated an average global cryptococcal antigenaemia prevalence of 6·0% (95% CI 5·8–6·2) among people with a CD4 cell count of less than 100 cells per µL, with 278 000 (95% CI 195 500–340 600) people positive for cryptococcal antigen globally and 223 100 (95% CI 150 600–282 400) incident cases of cryptococcal meningitis globally in 2014. Sub-Saharan Africa accounted for 73% of the estimated cryptococcal meningitis cases in 2014 (162 500 cases [95% CI 113 600–193 900]). Annual global deaths from cryptococcal meningitis were estimated at 181 100 (95% CI 119 400–234 300), with 135 900 (75%; [95% CI 93 900–163 900]) deaths in sub-Saharan Africa. Globally, cryptococcal meningitis was responsible for 15% of AIDS-related deaths (95% CI 10–19). Interpretation Our analysis highlights the substantial ongoing burden of HIV

  12. Very high incidence of syphilis in HIV-infected men who have sex with men in Buenos Aires city: a retrospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bissio, E; Cisneros, V; Lopardo, G D; Cassetti, L I

    2017-08-01

    The incidence of sexually transmitted infections (STIs), particularly syphilis, is high and continues to rise among some populations, especially among men who have sex with men (MSM). Furthermore, a higher incidence of STIs has been reported in HIV-positive than in HIV-negative MSM. To determine the incidence of syphilis in a cohort of men with HIV in Buenos Aires city. Retrospective cohort study. We examined the records and visits made by men with HIV aged >18 years in our institution during a 1-year period. Venereal Disease Reference Laboratory (VDRL) results for all the men in our cohort during the study period were analysed. We considered a case of syphilis as incident if a person had a VDRL result of ≥16 DILS, provided that this was increased at least fourfold compared with a previous determination. All VDRL results ≤8 were investigated, and analysed together with the medical records, to determine if they were new cases. We analysed the VDRL results and the clinical records of 1150 men followed up in our centre during the study period. Mean age was 40.9 years. According to the definition used, we registered 171 new cases of syphilis-that is, an incidence of 14.9/100 patients/year (95% CI 12.9 to 17.0). No significant differences in incidence according to age group were found, but there was a trend towards a lower incidence in older men. Ten men had two new episodes during the study. The incidence of syphilis in this cohort of men with HIV (predominantly MSM) was very high. In addition to maintaining high surveillance for early diagnosis and treatment, it is necessary to implement newer and more effective measures to prevent syphilis and other STIs in this population. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

  13. Incident Tuberculosis during Antiretroviral Therapy Contributes to Suboptimal Immune Reconstitution in a Large Urban HIV Clinic in Sub-Saharan Africa

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hermans, Sabine M.; Kiragga, Agnes N.; Schaefer, Petra; Kambugu, Andrew; Hoepelman, Andy I. M.; Manabe, Yukari C.

    2010-01-01

    Background: Antiretroviral therapy (ART) effectively decreases tuberculosis (TB) incidence long-term, but is associated with high TB incidence rates in the first 6 months. We sought to determine the incidence and the long-term effects of TB during ART on HIV treatment outcome, and the risk factors

  14. Impact of antiretroviral therapy on incidence of pregnancy among HIV-infected women in Sub-Saharan Africa: a cohort study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Landon Myer

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: With the rapid expansion of antiretroviral therapy (ART services in sub-Saharan Africa there is growing recognition of the importance of fertility and childbearing among HIV-infected women. However there are few data on whether ART initiation influences pregnancy rates. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We analyzed data from the Mother-to-Child Transmission-Plus (MTCT-Plus Initiative, a multicountry HIV care and treatment program for women, children, and families. From 11 programs in seven African countries, women were enrolled into care regardless of HIV disease stage and followed at regular intervals; ART was initiated according to national guidelines on the basis of immunological and/or clinical criteria. Standardized forms were used to collect sociodemographic and clinical data, including incident pregnancies. Overall 589 incident pregnancies were observed among the 4,531 women included in this analysis (pregnancy incidence, 7.8/100 person-years [PY]. The rate of new pregnancies was significantly higher among women receiving ART (9.0/100 PY compared to women not on ART (6.5/100 PY (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.74; 95% confidence interval, 1.19-2.54. Other factors independently associated with increased risk of incident pregnancy included younger age, lower educational attainment, being married or cohabiting, having a male partner enrolled into the program, failure to use nonbarrier contraception, and higher CD4 cell counts. CONCLUSIONS: ART use is associated with significantly higher pregnancy rates among HIV-infected women in sub-Saharan Africa. While the possible behavioral or biomedical mechanisms that may underlie this association require further investigation, these data highlight the importance of pregnancy planning and management as a critical but neglected component of HIV care and treatment services. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

  15. National South African HIV prevalence estimates robust despite ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Approximately 18% of all people living with HIV in 2013 were estimated to live in South Africa (SA),[1] which ... 1 Research Department of Infection and Population Health, Institute for Global Health, University College London, UK.

  16. Comparison of cystatin C and creatinine to determine the incidence of composite adverse outcomes in HIV-infected individuals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yanagisawa, Naoki; Sasaki, Shugo; Suganuma, Akihiko; Imamura, Akifumi; Ajisawa, Atsushi; Ando, Minoru

    2015-02-01

    Cystatin C is an overall biomarker of pathophysiologic abnormalities that accompany chronic kidney disease (CKD). The utility of cystatin C is not fully understood in an HIV-infected population. This prospective study investigated 661 HIV-infected individuals for 4 years to determine the incidence of adverse outcomes, including all-cause mortality, cardiovascular disease, and renal dysfunction. The risk of developing the outcomes was discriminated with a 4 color-coded classification in a 3 × 6 contingency table, that combined 3 grades of dipstick proteinuria with 6 grades of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) calculated using either serum creatinine (eGFRcr) or cystatin C (eGFRcy): green, low risk; yellow, moderately increased risk; orange, high risk; and red, very high risk. The cumulative incidence of the outcomes was assessed by the Kaplan-Meier method, and the association between color-coded risk and the time to outcome was evaluated using multivariate proportional hazards analysis. Compared with eGFRcr, the use of eGFRcy reduced the prevalence of risk ≥ orange by 0.8%. The adverse outcomes were significantly more likely to occur to the patients with baseline risk category ≥orange than those with ≤ yellow, independent of risk categories based on eGFRcr or eGFRcy. However, in multivariate analysis, risk category ≥orange with eGFRcy-based classification was significantly associated with adverse outcomes, but not the one with eGFRcr. Replacing creatinine by cystatin C in the CKD color-coded risk classification may be appropriate to discriminate HIV-infected patients at increased risk of a poor prognosis. Copyright © 2014 Japanese Society of Chemotherapy and The Japanese Association for Infectious Diseases. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Incidence and correlates of HIV and syphilis in a prospective cohort of men who have sex with men in Mianyang, China, over a 36-month period.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yi; Huang, Yuling; Chen, Huailiang; Li, Liulin; Xu, Jie; Li, Zhijun; Zhang, Guanggui; Fan, Jing; Zhao, Xihe; Jia, Shuguang

    2015-11-01

    Background Estimates for the HIV/AIDS epidemic from the China Ministry of Health show that the epidemic is spreading rapidly among men who have sex with men (MSM). Respondent-driven sampling (RDS) was adapted in 2009 and snowball sampling was adapted to supplement the number of participants in 2010 and 2011. Interviewer-administered questionnaires and blood tests were conducted to confirm enrolment eligibility of participants. A total of 725 HIV-negative participants were included into the cohort study. The cohort had a HIV incidence density of 5.6 (95% CI: 3.9-7.3)/100 person-years (PY) and a syphilis incidence density of 5.6 (95% CI:3.7-7.6)/100 PY. Age ≤20 years (21-25 years, hazard ratio (HR)=0.32, 95%CI: 0.11-0.95/≥26 years, HR=0.17, 95%CI: 0.05-0.66), having not participated in peer education in the past year (HR=2.96, 95%CI: 1.19-7.35), seeking male sexual partners in a public washroom/park (HR=3.61, 95%CI: 1.03-12.47), being currently infected with syphilis (HR=3.21, 95%CI: 1.31-7.91), having sex partners aged ≥30 years (HR=3.40, 95%CI: 1.11-10.39) and having more than four male sexual partners within the past 6 months (HR=3.34, 95%CI: 1.24-9.04) were found to be risk factors for HIV seroconversion (each P<0.05). Being married (HR=2.38, 95%CI: 1.04-5.46), having not participated in peer education in the past year (HR=2.28, 95%CI: 1.08-4.82), having limited HIV/AIDS knowledge (HR=4.28, 95%CI: 1.94-9.43) and having a sexually transmitted disease infection in the past 6 months (HR=4.74, 95%CI: 1.83-12.30) were identified as factors for syphilis infection (each P<0.05). The incidence rates of HIV and syphilis in Mianyang City reamained high in the cohort of MSM for 36 months. Increased attention should be given to this serious epidemic, and appropriate interventions should be implemented to address MSM-specific issues in order to prevent HIV and syphilis infection in China.

  18. Evaluating HIV prevention strategies for populations in key affected groups: The example of Cabo Verde

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monteiro, João Filipe G.; Galea, Sandro; Flanigan, Timothy; Monteiro, Maria de Lourdes; Friedman, Samuel R.; Marshall, Brandon DL

    2015-01-01

    Objectives We used an individual-based model to evaluate the effects of hypothetical prevention interventions on HIV incidence trajectories in a concentrated, mixed epidemic setting from 2011 to 2021, and using Cabo Verde as an example. Methods Simulations were conducted to evaluate the extent to which early HIV treatment and optimization of care, HIV testing, condom distribution, and substance abuse treatment could eliminate new infections (i.e., reduce incidence to less than 10 cases per 10,000 person-years) among non-drug users, female sex workers (FSW), and people who use drugs (PWUD). Results Scaling up all four interventions resulted in the largest decreases in HIV, with estimates ranging from 1.4 (95%CI:1.36–1.44) per 10,000 person-years among non-drug users to 8.2 (95%CI:7.8–8.6) per 10,000 person-years among PWUD in 2021. Intervention scenarios targeting FWS and PWUD also resulted in HIV incidence estimates at or below 10 per 10,000 person-years by 2021 for all population sub-groups. Conclusions Our results suggest that scaling up multiple interventions among entire population is necessary to achieve elimination. However, prioritizing key populations with this combination prevention strategy may also result in a substantial decrease in total incidence. PMID:25838121

  19. Evaluating HIV prevention strategies for populations in key affected groups: the example of Cabo Verde.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monteiro, João Filipe G; Galea, Sandro; Flanigan, Timothy; Monteiro, Maria de Lourdes; Friedman, Samuel R; Marshall, Brandon D L

    2015-05-01

    We used an individual-based model to evaluate the effects of hypothetical prevention interventions on HIV incidence trajectories in a concentrated, mixed epidemic setting from 2011 to 2021, and using Cabo Verde as an example. Simulations were conducted to evaluate the extent to which early HIV treatment and optimization of care, HIV testing, condom distribution, and substance abuse treatment could eliminate new infections (i.e., reduce incidence to less than 10 cases per 10,000 person-years) among non-drug users, female sex workers (FSW), and people who use drugs (PWUD). Scaling up all four interventions resulted in the largest decreases in HIV, with estimates ranging from 1.4 (95 % CI 1.36-1.44) per 10,000 person-years among non-drug users to 8.2 (95 % CI 7.8-8.6) per 10,000 person-years among PWUD in 2021. Intervention scenarios prioritizing FWS and PWUD also resulted in HIV incidence estimates at or below 10 per 10,000 person-years by 2021 for all population sub-groups. Our results suggest that scaling up multiple interventions among entire population is necessary to achieve elimination. However, prioritizing key populations with this combination prevention strategy may also result in a substantial decrease in total incidence.

  20. Evaluating the Impact of Zimbabwe's Prevention of Mother-to-Child HIV Transmission Program: Population-Level Estimates of HIV-Free Infant Survival Pre-Option A.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buzdugan, Raluca; McCoy, Sandra I; Watadzaushe, Constancia; Kang Dufour, Mi-Suk; Petersen, Maya; Dirawo, Jeffrey; Mushavi, Angela; Mujuru, Hilda Angela; Mahomva, Agnes; Musarandega, Reuben; Hakobyan, Anna; Mugurungi, Owen; Cowan, Frances M; Padian, Nancy S

    2015-01-01

    We estimated HIV-free infant survival and mother-to-child HIV transmission (MTCT) rates in Zimbabwe, some of the first community-based estimates from a UNAIDS priority country. In 2012 we surveyed mother-infant pairs residing in the catchment areas of 157 health facilities randomly selected from 5 of 10 provinces in Zimbabwe. Enrolled infants were born 9-18 months before the survey. We collected questionnaires, blood samples for HIV testing, and verbal autopsies for deceased mothers/infants. Estimates were assessed among i) all HIV-exposed infants, as part of an impact evaluation of Option A of the 2010 WHO guidelines (rolled out in Zimbabwe in 2011), and ii) the subgroup of infants unexposed to Option A. We compared province-level MTCT rates measured among women in the community with MTCT rates measured using program monitoring data from facilities serving those communities. Among 8568 women with known HIV serostatus, 1107 (12.9%) were HIV-infected. Among all HIV-exposed infants, HIV-free infant survival was 90.9% (95% confidence interval (CI): 88.7-92.7) and MTCT was 8.8% (95% CI: 6.9-11.1). Sixty-six percent of HIV-exposed infants were still breastfeeding. Among the 762 infants born before Option A was implemented, 90.5% (95% CI: 88.1-92.5) were alive and HIV-uninfected at 9-18 months of age, and 9.1% (95%CI: 7.1-11.7) were HIV-infected. In four provinces, the community-based MTCT rate was higher than the facility-based MTCT rate. In Harare, the community and facility-based rates were 6.0% and 9.1%, respectively. By 2012 Zimbabwe had made substantial progress towards the elimination of MTCT. Our HIV-free infant survival and MTCT estimates capture HIV transmissions during pregnancy, delivery and breastfeeding regardless of whether or not mothers accessed health services. These estimates also provide a baseline against which to measure the impact of Option A guidelines (and subsequently Option B+).

  1. Outcomes among HIV-infected children initiating HIV care and antiretroviral treatment in Ethiopia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melaku, Zenebe; Lulseged, Sileshi; Wang, Chunhui; Lamb, Matthew R; Gutema, Yoseph; Teasdale, Chloe A; Ahmed, Solomon; Gadisa, Tsigereda; Habtamu, Zelalem; Bedri, Abubaker; Fayorsey, Ruby; Abrams, Elaine J

    2017-04-01

    To describe pediatric ART scale-up in Ethiopia, one of the 21 global priority countries for elimination of pediatric HIV infection. A descriptive analysis of routinely collected HIV care and treatment data on HIV-infected children (<15 years) enrolled at 70 health facilities in four regions in Ethiopia, January 2006-September 2013. Characteristics at enrollment and ART initiation are described along with outcomes at 1 year after enrollment. Among children who initiated ART, cumulative incidence of death and loss to follow-up (LTF) were estimated using survival analysis. 11 695 children 0-14 years were enrolled in HIV care and 6815 (58.3%) initiated ART. At enrollment, 31.2% were WHO stage III and 6.3% stage IV. The majority (87.9%) were enrolled in secondary or tertiary facilities. At 1 year after enrollment, 17.9% of children were LTF prior to ART initiation. Among children initiating ART, cumulative incidence of death was 3.4%, 4.1% and 4.8%, and cumulative incidence of LTF was 7.7%, 11.8% and 16.6% at 6, 12 and 24 months, respectively. Children <2 years had higher risk of LTF and death than older children (P < 0.0001). Children with more advanced disease and those enrolled in rural settings were more likely to die. Children enrolled in more recent years were less likely to die but more likely to be LTF. Over the last decade large numbers of HIV-infected children have been successfully enrolled in HIV care and initiated on ART in Ethiopia. Retention prior to and after ART initiation remains a major challenge. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  2. Operative needs in HIV+ populations: An estimation for sub-Saharan Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cherewick, Megan L; Cherewick, Steven D; Kushner, Adam L

    2017-05-01

    In 2015, it was estimated that approximately 36.7 million people were living with HIV globally and approximately 25.5 million of those people were living in sub-Saharan Africa. Limitations in the availability and access to adequate operative care require policy and planning to enhance operative capacity. Data estimating the total number of persons living with HIV by country, sex, and age group were obtained from the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) in 2015. Using minimum proposed surgical rates per 100,000 for 4, defined, sub-Saharan regions of Africa, country-specific and regional estimates were calculated. The total need and unmet need for operative procedures were estimated. A minimum of 1,539,138 operative procedures were needed in 2015 for the 25.5 million persons living with HIV in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2015, there was an unmet need of 908,513 operative cases in sub-Saharan Africa with the greatest unmet need in eastern sub-Saharan Africa (427,820) and western sub-Saharan Africa (325,026). Approximately 55.6% of the total need for operative cases is adult women, 38.4% are adult men, and 6.0% are among children under the age of 15. A minimum of 1.5 million operative procedures annually are required to meet the needs of persons living with HIV in sub-Saharan Africa. The unmet need for operative care is greatest in eastern and western sub-Saharan Africa and will require investments in personnel, infrastructure, facilities, supplies, and equipment. We highlight the need for global planning and investment in resources to meet targets of operative capacity. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Reductions in HIV/STI Incidence and Sharing of Injection Equipment among Female Sex Workers Who Inject Drugs: Results from a Randomized Controlled Trial

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strathdee, Steffanie A.; Abramovitz, Daniela; Lozada, Remedios; Martinez, Gustavo; Rangel, Maria Gudelia; Vera, Alicia; Staines, Hugo; Magis-Rodriguez, Carlos; Patterson, Thomas L.

    2013-01-01

    Background We evaluated brief combination interventions to simultaneously reduce sexual and injection risks among female sex workers who inject drugs (FSW-IDUs) in Tijuana and Ciudad Juarez, Mexico during 2008–2010, when harm reduction coverage was expanding rapidly in Tijuana, but less so in Juarez. Methods FSW-IDUs ≥18 years reporting sharing injection equipment and unprotected sex with clients within the last month participated in a randomized factorial trial comparing four brief, single-session conditions combining either an interactive or didactic version of a sexual risk intervention to promote safer sex in the context of drug use, and an injection risk intervention to reduce sharing of needles/injection paraphernalia. Women underwent quarterly interviews and testing for HIV, syphilis, gonorrhea, Chlamydia and Trichomonas, blinding interviewers and assessors to assignment. Poisson regression with robust variance estimation and repeated measures ordinal logistic regression examined effects on combined HIV/STI incidence and receptive needle sharing frequency. Findings Of 584 initially HIV-negative FSW-IDUs, retention was ≥90%. After 12 months, HIV/STI incidence decreased >50% in the interactive vs. didactic sex intervention (Tijuana:AdjRR:0.38,95% CI:0.16–0.89; Juarez: AdjRR:0.44,95% CI:0.19–0.99). In Juarez, women receiving interactive vs. didactic injection risk interventions decreased receptive needle-sharing by 85% vs. 71%, respectively (p = 0.04); in Tijuana, receptive needle sharing declined by 95%, but was similar in active versus didactic groups. Tijuana women reported significant increases in access to syringes and condoms, but Juarez women did not. Interpretation After 12 months in both cities, the interactive sexual risk intervention significantly reduced HIV/STI incidence. Expanding free access to sterile syringes coupled with brief, didactic education on safer injection was necessary and sufficient for achieving robust, sustained

  4. Racial/Ethnic Disparities at the End of an HIV Epidemic: Persons Who Inject Drugs in New York City, 2011-2015.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Des Jarlais, Don C; Arasteh, Kamyar; McKnight, Courtney; Feelemyer, Jonathan; Tross, Susan; Perlman, David; Friedman, Samuel; Campbell, Aimee

    2017-07-01

    To examine whether racial/ethnic disparities persist at the "end of the HIV epidemic" (prevalence of untreated HIV infection New York City. We recruited 2404 PWID entering New York City substance use treatment in 2001 to 2005 and 2011 to 2015. We conducted a structured interview, and testing for HIV and herpes simplex virus 2 (HSV-2; a biomarker for high sexual risk). We estimated incidence by using newly diagnosed cases of HIV. Disparity analyses compared HIV, untreated HIV, HIV-HSV-2 coinfection, HIV monoinfection, and estimated HIV incidence among Whites, African Americans, and Latinos. By 2011 to 2015, Whites, African Americans, and Latino/as met both criteria of our operational "end-of-the-epidemic" definition. All comparisons that included HIV-HSV-2-coinfected persons had statistically significant higher rates of HIV among racial/ethnic minorities. No comparisons limited to HIV monoinfected persons were significant. "End-of-the-epidemic" criteria were met among White, African American, and Latino/a PWID in New York City, but elimination of disparities may require a greater focus on PWID with high sexual risk.

  5. Evaluating the Impact of Zimbabwe’s Prevention of Mother-to-Child HIV Transmission Program: Population-Level Estimates of HIV-Free Infant Survival Pre-Option A

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buzdugan, Raluca; McCoy, Sandra I.; Watadzaushe, Constancia; Kang Dufour, Mi-Suk; Petersen, Maya; Dirawo, Jeffrey; Mushavi, Angela; Mujuru, Hilda Angela; Mahomva, Agnes; Musarandega, Reuben; Hakobyan, Anna; Mugurungi, Owen; Cowan, Frances M.; Padian, Nancy S.

    2015-01-01

    Objective We estimated HIV-free infant survival and mother-to-child HIV transmission (MTCT) rates in Zimbabwe, some of the first community-based estimates from a UNAIDS priority country. Methods In 2012 we surveyed mother-infant pairs residing in the catchment areas of 157 health facilities randomly selected from 5 of 10 provinces in Zimbabwe. Enrolled infants were born 9–18 months before the survey. We collected questionnaires, blood samples for HIV testing, and verbal autopsies for deceased mothers/infants. Estimates were assessed among i) all HIV-exposed infants, as part of an impact evaluation of Option A of the 2010 WHO guidelines (rolled out in Zimbabwe in 2011), and ii) the subgroup of infants unexposed to Option A. We compared province-level MTCT rates measured among women in the community with MTCT rates measured using program monitoring data from facilities serving those communities. Findings Among 8568 women with known HIV serostatus, 1107 (12.9%) were HIV-infected. Among all HIV-exposed infants, HIV-free infant survival was 90.9% (95% confidence interval (CI): 88.7–92.7) and MTCT was 8.8% (95% CI: 6.9–11.1). Sixty-six percent of HIV-exposed infants were still breastfeeding. Among the 762 infants born before Option A was implemented, 90.5% (95% CI: 88.1–92.5) were alive and HIV-uninfected at 9–18 months of age, and 9.1% (95%CI: 7.1–11.7) were HIV-infected. In four provinces, the community-based MTCT rate was higher than the facility-based MTCT rate. In Harare, the community and facility-based rates were 6.0% and 9.1%, respectively. Conclusion By 2012 Zimbabwe had made substantial progress towards the elimination of MTCT. Our HIV-free infant survival and MTCT estimates capture HIV transmissions during pregnancy, delivery and breastfeeding regardless of whether or not mothers accessed health services. These estimates also provide a baseline against which to measure the impact of Option A guidelines (and subsequently Option B+). PMID:26248197

  6. Untangling the Relationship Between Antiretroviral Therapy Use and Incident Pregnancy: A Marginal Structural Model Analysis Using Data From 47,313 HIV-Positive Women in East Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elul, Batya; Wools-Kaloustian, Kara K; Wu, Yingfeng; Musick, Beverly S; Nuwagaba-Biribonwoha, Harriet; Nash, Denis; Ayaya, Samuel; Bukusi, Elizabeth; Okong, Pius; Otieno, Juliana; Wabwire, Deo; Kambugu, Andrew; Yiannoutsos, Constantin T

    2016-07-01

    Scale-up of triple-drug antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Africa has transformed the context of childbearing for HIV-positive women and may impact pregnancy incidence in HIV programs. Using observational data from 47,313 HIV-positive women enrolled at 26 HIV clinics in Kenya and Uganda between 2001 and 2009, we calculated the crude cumulative incidence of pregnancy for the pre-ART and on-ART periods. The causal effect of ART use on incident pregnancy was assessed using inverse probability weighted marginal structural models, and the relationship was further explored in multivariable Cox models. Crude cumulative pregnancy incidence at 1 year after enrollment/ART initiation was 4.0% and 3.9% during the pre-ART and on-ART periods, respectively. In marginal structural models, ART use was not significantly associated with incident pregnancy [hazard ratio = 1.06; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.99 to 1.12]. Similarly, in Cox models, there was no significant relationship between ART use and incident pregnancy (cause-specific hazard ratio: 0.98; 95% CI: 0.91 to 1.05), but effect modification was observed. Specifically, women who were pregnant at enrollment and on ART had an increased risk of incident pregnancy compared to those not pregnant at enrollment and not on ART (cause-specific hazard ratio: 1.11; 95% CI: 1.01 to 1.23). In this large cohort, ART initiation was not associated with incident pregnancy in the general population of women enrolling in HIV care but rather only among those pregnant at enrollment. This finding further highlights the importance of scaling up access to lifelong treatment for pregnant women.

  7. The cost-effectiveness of multi-purpose HIV and pregnancy prevention technologies in South Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quaife, Matthew; Terris-Prestholt, Fern; Eakle, Robyn; Cabrera Escobar, Maria A; Kilbourne-Brook, Maggie; Mvundura, Mercy; Meyer-Rath, Gesine; Delany-Moretlwe, Sinead; Vickerman, Peter

    2018-03-01

    A number of antiretroviral HIV prevention products are efficacious in preventing HIV infection. However, the sexual and reproductive health needs of many women extend beyond HIV prevention, and research is ongoing to develop multi-purpose prevention technologies (MPTs) that offer dual HIV and pregnancy protection. We do not yet know if these products will be an efficient use of constrained health resources. In this paper, we estimate the cost-effectiveness of combinations of candidate multi-purpose prevention technologies (MPTs), in South Africa among general population women and female sex workers (FSWs). We combined a cost model with a static model of product impact based on incidence data in South Africa to estimate the cost-effectiveness of five candidate co-formulated or co-provided MPTs: oral PrEP, intravaginal ring, injectable ARV, microbicide gel and SILCS diaphragm used in concert with gel. We accounted for the preferences of end-users by predicting uptake using a discrete choice experiment (DCE). Product availability and protection were systematically varied in five potential rollout scenarios. The impact model estimated the number of infections averted through decreased incidence due to product use over one year. The comparator for each scenario was current levels of male condom use, while a health system perspective was used to estimate discounted lifetime treatment costs averted per HIV infection. Product benefit was estimated in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted. Benefits from contraception were incorporated through adjusting the uptake of these products based on the DCE and through estimating the costs averted from avoiding unwanted pregnancies. We explore the additional impact of STI protection through increased uptake in a sensitivity analysis. At central incidence rates, all single- and multi-purpose scenarios modelled were cost-effective among FSWs and women aged 16-24, at a governmental willingness-to-pay threshold of $1175/DALY

  8. Typhoid Fever in South Africa in an Endemic HIV Setting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keddy, Karen H; Sooka, Arvinda; Smith, Anthony M; Musekiwa, Alfred; Tau, Nomsa P; Klugman, Keith P; Angulo, Frederick J

    2016-01-01

    Typhoid fever remains an important disease in Africa, associated with outbreaks and the emerging multidrug resistant Salmonella enterica serotype Typhi (Salmonella Typhi) haplotype, H58. This study describes the incidence of, and factors associated with mortality due to, typhoid fever in South Africa, where HIV prevalence is high. Nationwide active laboratory-based surveillance for culture-confirmed typhoid fever was undertaken from 2003-2013. At selected institutions, additional clinical data from patients were collected including age, sex, HIV status, disease severity and outcome. HIV prevalence among typhoid fever patients was compared to national HIV seroprevalence estimates. The national reference laboratory tested Salmonella Typhi isolates for antimicrobial susceptibility and haplotype. Unadjusted and adjusted logistic regression analyses were conducted determining factors associated with typhoid fever mortality. We identified 855 typhoid fever cases: annual incidence ranged from 0.11 to 0.39 per 100,000 population. Additional clinical data were available for 369 (46.8%) cases presenting to the selected sites. Among typhoid fever patients with known HIV status, 19.3% (29/150) were HIV-infected. In adult females, HIV prevalence in typhoid fever patients was 43.2% (19/44) versus 15.7% national HIV seroprevalence (P Typhoid fever incidence in South Africa was largely unchanged from 2003-2013. Typhoid fever mortality was associated disease severity. HIV infection may be a contributing factor. Interventions mandate improved health care access, including to HIV management programmes as well as patient education. Further studies are necessary to clarify relationships between HIV infection and typhoid fever in adults.

  9. Contraceptive Use and Pregnancy Incidence Among Women Participating in an HIV Prevention Trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akello, Carolyne A; Bunge, Katherine E; Nakabiito, Clemensia; Mirembe, Brenda G; Fowler, Mary Glenn; Mishra, Anupam; Marrazzo, Jeanne; Chirenje, Zvavahera M; Celum, Connie; Balkus, Jennifer E

    2017-06-01

    Recent HIV prevention trials required use of effective contraceptive methods to fulfill eligibility for enrollment. We compared pregnancy rates in a subset of participants enrolled in the Microbicide Trials Network protocol (MTN-003), a randomized trial of chemoprophylaxis to prevent HIV acquisition among women aged 18-45 years who initiated depot medroxyprogesterone acetate (DMPA) or combined oral contraceptives (COCs) at enrollment, relative to those already using DMPA or COCs. Data were analyzed from MTN-003 participants from Uganda. Before enrollment, information on contraceptive type and initiation date was obtained. Urine pregnancy tests were performed at monthly follow-up visits. Cox proportional hazards models were used to compare pregnancy incidence among new users (initiated ≤60 days before enrollment) and established users (initiated >60 days before enrollment). Of 322 women enrolled, 296 were COC or DMPA users, 82 (28%) were new users, and 214 (72%) were established users. Pregnancy incidence was higher among new contraceptive users compared to established users (20.70% vs. 10.55%; adjusted hazard ratio [HR] = 1.66; 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 0.93-2.96). Among DMPA users, pregnancy incidence was 10.20% in new users versus 3.48% in established users (HR = 2.56; 95% CI 0.86-7.65). Among new COC users, pregnancy incidence was 42.67% in new users versus 23.67% in established COC users (adjusted HR = 1.74; 95% CI 0.87-3.48). New contraceptive users, regardless of method, at the Uganda MTN-003 site had an increased pregnancy risk compared to established users, which may be due to contraceptive initiation primarily for trial eligibility. New users may benefit from intensive contraceptive counseling and additional contraceptive options, including longer acting reversible contraceptives.

  10. Decline in HIV prevalence among young women in Zambia: national-level estimates of trends mask geographical and socio-demographic differences.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nkomba Kayeyi

    Full Text Available A decline in HIV incidence has been reported in Zambia and a number of other sub-Saharan countries. The trend of HIV prevalence among young people is a good marker of HIV incidence. In this study, different data sources are used to examine geographical and sub-population group differentials in HIV prevalence trends among men and women aged 15-24 years in Zambia.We analysed ANC data for women aged 15-24 years from 22 sentinel sites consistently covered in the period 1994-2008, and HIV data for young men and women aged 15-24 years from the ZDHS 2001/2 and 2007. In addition, we systematically reviewed peer-reviewed articles that have reported findings on HIV prevalence and incidence among young people.Overall trends of the ANC surveillance data indicated a substantial HIV prevalence decline among young women in both urban and rural areas. However, provincial declines differed substantially, i.e. between 10% and 68% among urban women, and from stability to 86% among rural women. Prevalence declines were steeper among those with the highest educational attainments than among the least educated. The ZDHS data indicated a significant reduction in prevalence between the two survey rounds among young women only. Provincial-level ZDHS changes were difficult to assess because the sample sizes were small. ANC-based trend patterns were consistent with those observed in PMTCT-based data (2002-2006, whereas population-based surveys in a selected urban community (1995-2003 suggested that the ANC-based data underestimated the prevalence declines in the general populations of both young both men and women.The overall HIV prevalence declined substantially among young women in Zambia and this is interpreted as indicating a decline in HIV incidence. It is noteworthy that overall national trends masked substantial differences by place and by educational attainment, demonstrating critical limitations in the current focus on overall country-level trends in

  11. Prevalence and cumulative incidence of abnormal cervical cytology among HIV-infected Thai women: a 5.5-year retrospective cohort study

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    Background Cervical cancer is one of the most common AIDS-related malignancies in Thailand. To prevent cervical cancer, The US Public Health Service and The Infectious Disease Society of America have recommended that all HIV-infected women should obtain 2 Pap smears 6 months apart after the initial HIV diagnosis and, if results of both are normal, should undergo annual cytological screening. However, there has been no evidence in supporting whether this guideline is appropriate in all settings - especially in areas where HIV-infected women are living in resource-constrained condition. Methods To determine the appropriate interval of Pap smear screenings for HIV-infected Thai women and risk factors for subsequent abnormal cervical cytology, we assessed the prevalence, cumulative incidence and associated factors of cervical cell abnormalities (atypical squamous cell of undetermined significance or higher grades, ASCUS+) among this group of patients. Results The prevalence of ASCUS+ was 15.4% at the first visit, and the cumulative incidence of ASCUS+ gradually increased to 37% in the first 3.5 years of follow-up appointments (first 7 times), and tended to plateau in the last 2 years. For multivariate correlation analysis, women with a CD4 count ASCUS+ (P = 0.043). There were no associations of subsequent ASCUS+ with age, pregnancy, contraceptive method, highly active anti-retroviral treatment, assumed duration of infection, or the CD4 count nadir level. Conclusion There are high prevalence and cumulative incidence of ASCUS+ in HIV-infected Thai women. With a high lost-to-follow-up rate, an appropriate interval of Pap smear screening cannot be concluded from the present study. Nevertheless, the HIV-infected Thai women may require more than two normal semi-annual Pap smears before shifting to routinely annual cytologic screening. PMID:21211065

  12. Prevalence and cumulative incidence of abnormal cervical cytology among HIV-infected Thai women: a 5.5-year retrospective cohort study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thamkhantho Manopchai

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Cervical cancer is one of the most common AIDS-related malignancies in Thailand. To prevent cervical cancer, The US Public Health Service and The Infectious Disease Society of America have recommended that all HIV-infected women should obtain 2 Pap smears 6 months apart after the initial HIV diagnosis and, if results of both are normal, should undergo annual cytological screening. However, there has been no evidence in supporting whether this guideline is appropriate in all settings - especially in areas where HIV-infected women are living in resource-constrained condition. Methods To determine the appropriate interval of Pap smear screenings for HIV-infected Thai women and risk factors for subsequent abnormal cervical cytology, we assessed the prevalence, cumulative incidence and associated factors of cervical cell abnormalities (atypical squamous cell of undetermined significance or higher grades, ASCUS+ among this group of patients. Results The prevalence of ASCUS+ was 15.4% at the first visit, and the cumulative incidence of ASCUS+ gradually increased to 37% in the first 3.5 years of follow-up appointments (first 7 times, and tended to plateau in the last 2 years. For multivariate correlation analysis, women with a CD4 count P = 0.043. There were no associations of subsequent ASCUS+ with age, pregnancy, contraceptive method, highly active anti-retroviral treatment, assumed duration of infection, or the CD4 count nadir level. Conclusion There are high prevalence and cumulative incidence of ASCUS+ in HIV-infected Thai women. With a high lost-to-follow-up rate, an appropriate interval of Pap smear screening cannot be concluded from the present study. Nevertheless, the HIV-infected Thai women may require more than two normal semi-annual Pap smears before shifting to routinely annual cytologic screening.

  13. Early life traumatic stressors and the mediating role of PTSD in incident HIV infection among US men, comparisons by sexual orientation and race/ethnicity: results from the NESARC, 2004-2005.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reisner, Sari L; Falb, Kathryn L; Mimiaga, Matthew J

    2011-08-01

    Stressful life events in childhood during critical periods of development have long-term psychological and neurobiological sequelae, which may affect risk for HIV infection across the life course. Data were from a nationally representative sample of 13,274 US men (National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions, 2004-2005). Weighted multivariable logistic regression models examined (1) the association of childhood violent events before age 18 on 12-month incident HIV infection and (2) whether posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) diagnosis (clinical interview) mediated the association between early life events and HIV. Overall, the 12-month HIV incidence was incident HIV infection (aOR = 5.75; 95% CI: 4.76 to 6.95). There was evidence that PTSD partially mediated the relationship between early life events and HIV (aOR = 1.14; 95% CI: 1.02 to 1.28). Experiencing early life violent family stressors was associated with HIV infection among men. Early life events and HIV infection were mediated by PTSD, which has implications for understanding disparities in HIV infection. Interventions are urgently needed that address the long-term sequelae of childhood violence.

  14. Trends in three decades of HIV/AIDS epidemic in Thailand by nonparametric backcalculation method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Punyacharoensin, Narat; Viwatwongkasem, Chukiat

    2009-06-01

    To reconstruct the past HIV incidence and prevalence in Thailand from 1980 to 2008 and predict the country's AIDS incidence from 2009 to 2011. Nonparametric backcalculation was adopted utilizing 100 quarterly observed new AIDS counts excluding pediatric cases. The accuracy of data was enhanced through a series of data adjustments using the weight method to account for several surveillance reporting issues. The mixture of time-dependent distributions allowed the effects of age at seroconversion and antiretroviral therapy to be incorporated simultaneously. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess model variations that were subject to major uncertainties. Future AIDS incidence was projected for various predetermined HIV incidence patterns. HIV incidence in Thailand reached its peak in 1992 with approximately 115,000 cases. A steep decline thereafter discontinued in 1997 and was followed by another strike of 42,000 cases in 1999. The second surge, which happened concurrently with the major economic crisis, brought on 60,000 new infections. As of December 2008, more than 1 million individuals had been infected and around 430,000 adults were living with HIV corresponding to a prevalence rate of 1.2%. The incidence rate had become less than 0.1% since 2002. The backcalculated estimates were dominated by postulated median AIDS progression time and adjustments to surveillance data. Our analysis indicated that, thus far, the 1990s was the most severe era of HIV/AIDS epidemic in Thailand with two HIV incidence peaks. A drop in new infections led to a decrease in recent AIDS incidence, and this tendency is likely to remain unchanged until 2011, if not further.

  15. Predicted levels of HIV drug resistance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cambiano, Valentina; Bertagnolio, Silvia; Jordan, Michael R

    2014-01-01

    -term effects. METHODS: The previously validated HIV Synthesis model was calibrated to South Africa. Resistance was modeled at the level of single mutations, transmission potential, persistence, and effect on drug activity. RESULTS: We estimate 652 000 people (90% uncertainty range: 543 000-744 000) are living...... are maintained, in 20 years' time HIV incidence is projected to have declined by 22% (95% confidence interval, CI -23 to -21%), and the number of people carrying NNRTI resistance to be 2.9-fold higher. If enhancements in diagnosis and retention in care occur, and ART is initiated at CD4 cell count less than 500......  cells/μl, HIV incidence is projected to decline by 36% (95% CI: -37 to -36%) and the number of people with NNRTI resistance to be 4.1-fold higher than currently. Prevalence of people with viral load more than 500  copies/ml carrying NRMV is not projected to differ markedly according to future ART...

  16. Impact of HIV Infection on Medicare Beneficiaries with Lung Cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, J. Y.; Moore, P. C.; Lensing, S. Y.

    2012-01-01

    The incidence of lung cancer among individuals infected with the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is elevated compared to that among the general population. This study examines the prevalence of HIV and its impact on outcomes among Medicare beneficiaries who are 65 years of age or older and were diagnosed with non small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) between 1997 and 2008. Prevalence of HIV was estimated using the Poisson point estimate and its 95% confidence interval. Relative risks for potential risk factors were estimated using the log-binomial model. A total of 111,219 Medicare beneficiaries met the study criteria. The prevalence of HIV was 156.4 per 100,000 (95% CI: 140.8 to 173.8) and has increased with time. Stage at NSCLC diagnosis did not vary by HIV status. Mortality rates due to all causes were 44%, 76%, and 88% for patients with stage I/II, III, and IV NSCLC, respectively. Across stages of disease, there was no difference between those who were HIV-infected and those who were not with respect to overall mortality. HIV patients, however, were more likely to die of causes other than lung cancer than their immunocompetent counterparts.

  17. Performance of V3-based HIV-1 sero subtyping in HIV endemic areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lara Tavoschi

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available HIV-1 serosubtyping based on reactivity to peptides from the V3 region of gp120 is a low-cost and easy to perform procedure often used in geographical areas with high prevalence and incidence of HIV infection. We evaluated the performance of V3-based serotyping on 148 sera from 118 HIV-1-infected individuals living in Uganda, with estimated dates of seroconversion. Of the 148 tested samples, 68 (46.0% specifically reacted with only one of the V3 peptides included in the test (SP, 64 (43.2% did not react with any peptide (NR and 16 (10.8% reacted with two or more peptides (CR. According to the estimated seroconversion date, the large majority of samples collected early after infection belonged to the NR group. These samples had also a low Avidity Index. In contrast, samples collected later after infection belonged mainly to CR and SP groups and had also a higher avidity index. These results indicate that the performance of V3-based assays depends on maturation of HIV-specific immune response and can be significantly lowered when these tests are carried out on specimens collected from recently infected individuals.

  18. Sociocultural and epidemiological aspects of HIV/AIDS in Mozambique

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Moon Troy D

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background A legacy of colonial rule coupled with a devastating 16-year civil war through 1992 left Mozambique economically impoverished just as the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV epidemic swept over southern Africa in the late 1980s. The crumbling Mozambican health care system was wholly inadequate to support the need for new chronic disease services for people with the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS. Methods To review the unique challenges faced by Mozambique as they have attempted to stem the HIV epidemic, we undertook a systematic literature review through multiple search engines (PubMed, Google Scholar™, SSRN, AnthropologyPlus, AnthroSource using Mozambique as a required keyword. We searched for any articles that included the required keyword as well as the terms 'HIV' and/or 'AIDS', 'prevalence', 'behaviors', 'knowledge', 'attitudes', 'perceptions', 'prevention', 'gender', drugs, alcohol, and/or 'health care infrastructure'. Results UNAIDS 2008 prevalence estimates ranked Mozambique as the 8th most HIV-afflicted nation globally. In 2007, measured HIV prevalence in 36 antenatal clinic sites ranged from 3% to 35%; the national estimate of was 16%. Evidence suggests that the Mozambican HIV epidemic is characterized by a preponderance of heterosexual infections, among the world's most severe health worker shortages, relatively poor knowledge of HIV/AIDS in the general population, and lagging access to HIV preventive and therapeutic services compared to counterpart nations in southern Africa. Poor education systems, high levels of poverty and gender inequality further exacerbate HIV incidence. Conclusions Recommendations to reduce HIV incidence and AIDS mortality rates in Mozambique include: health system strengthening, rural outreach to increase testing and linkage to care, education about risk reduction and drug adherence, and partnerships with traditional healers and midwives to effect a lessening of stigma.

  19. Trends in HIV testing, prevalence among first-time testers, and incidence in most-at-risk populations in Spain: the EPI-VIH Study, 2000 to 2009.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diez, M; Bleda, M J; Varela, J R; Ordonana, J; Azpiri, M A; Vall, M; Santos, C; Viloria, L; de Armas, C; Urena, J M; Trullen, J; Pueyo, I; Martinez, B; Puerta, T; Vera, M; Sanz, I; Junquera, M L; Landa, M C; Martinez, E; Camara, M M; Belda, J; Bru, F J; Diaz, A

    2014-11-27

    During 2000 to 2009, data on people undergoing HIV testing and on those newly diagnosed with HIV were collected in a network of 20 Spanish clinics specialising in sexually transmitted infections and/or HIV testing and counselling. The number of tests performed, overall and disaggregated by different variables, was obtained. HIV prevalence among first-time testers and HIV incidence among repeat testers were calculated. To evaluate trends, joinpoint regression models were fitted. In total, 236,939 HIV tests were performed for 165,745 individuals. Overall HIV prevalence among persons seeking HIV testing was 2.5% (95% CI: 2.4 to 2.6). Prevalence was highest in male sex workers who had sex with other men (19.0% (95% CI: 16.7 to 21.4)) and was lowest in female sex workers (0.8% (95% CI: 0.7 to 0.9)). Significant trends in prevalence were observed in men who have sex with men (MSM) (increasing) and heterosexual individuals (decreasing). The incidence analysis included 30,679 persons, 64,104 person-years (py) of follow-up and 642 seroconversions. The overall incidence rate (IR) was 1.0/100 py (95% CI: 0.9/100 to 1.1/100). Incidence was significantly higher in men and transgender females than in women (1.8/100 py (95% CI: 1.6 to 1.9), 1.2/100 py (95% CI: 0.5 to 2.8) and 0.1/100 py (95% CI: 0.09 to 0.2) respectively) and increased with age until 35–39 years. IRs in MSM and people who inject drugs were significantly greater than in heterosexual individuals (2.5/100 py (95% CI: 2.3 to 2.7), 1.6/100 py (95% CI: 1.1 to 2.2) and 0.1/100 py (95% CI: 0.09 to 0.2) respectively), and an upward trend was observed in MSM. Our results call for HIV prevention to be reinforced in MSM and transgender women in Spain.

  20. Risk of Cancer among Commercially Insured HIV-Infected Adults on Antiretroviral Therapy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeannette Y. Lee

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study was to explore the cancer incidence rates among HIV-infected persons with commercial insurance who were on antiretroviral therapy and compare them with those rates in the general population. Paid health insurance claims for 63,221 individuals 18 years or older, with at least one claim with a diagnostic code for HIV and at least one filled prescription for an antiretroviral medication between January 1, 2006, and September 30, 2012, were obtained from the LifeLink® Health Plan Claims Database. The expected number of cancer cases in the general population for each gender-age group (60 years was estimated using incidence rates from the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER program. Standardized incidence ratios (SIRs were estimated using their 95% confidence intervals (CIs. Compared to the general population, incidence rates for HIV-infected adults were elevated (SIR, 95% CI for Kaposi sarcoma (46.08; 38.74–48.94, non-Hodgkin lymphoma (4.22; 3.63–4.45, Hodgkin lymphoma (9.83; 7.45–10.84, and anal cancer (30.54; 25.62–32.46 and lower for colorectal cancer (0.69; 0.52–0.76, lung cancer (0.70; 0.54, 0.77, and prostate cancer (0.54; 0.45–0.58. Commercially insured, treated HIV-infected adults had elevated rates for infection-related cancers, but not for common non-AIDS defining cancers.

  1. Risk of Cancer among Commercially Insured HIV-Infected Adults on Antiretroviral Therapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, J. Y.

    2016-01-01

    The objective of this study was to explore the cancer incidence rates among HIV-infected persons with commercial insurance who were on antiretroviral therapy and compare them with those rates in the general population. Paid health insurance claims for 63,221 individuals 18 years or older, with at least one claim with a diagnostic code for HIV and at least one filled prescription for an antiretroviral medication between January 1, 2006, and September 30, 2012, were obtained from the Life Link® Health Plan Claims Database. The expected number of cancer cases in the general population for each gender-age group (<30, 30-39, 40-49, 50-59, and >60 years) was estimated using incidence rates from the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) program. Standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) were estimated using their 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Compared to the general population, incidence rates for HIV-infected adults were elevated (SIR, 95% CI) for Kaposi sarcoma (46.08; 38.74-48.94), non-Hodgkin lymphoma (4.22; 3.63-4.45), Hodgkin lymphoma (9.83; 7.45-10.84), and anal cancer (30.54; 25.62-32.46) and lower for colorectal cancer (0.69; 0.52-0.76), lung cancer (0.70; 0.54, 0.77), and prostate cancer (0.54; 0.45-0.58). Commercially insured, treated HIV-infected adults had elevated rates for infection-related cancers, but not for common non-AIDS defining cancers.

  2. HIV incidence on the increase among homosexual men attending an Amsterdam sexually transmitted disease clinic: using a novel approach for detecting recent infections

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dukers, Nicole H. T. M.; Spaargaren, Joke; Geskus, Ronald B.; Beijnen, Jos; Coutinho, Roel A.; Fennema, Han S. A.

    2002-01-01

    Objective: Dramatic increases have occurred in sexually transmitted diseases (STD) and in sexual risk behaviour among homosexual men in Amsterdam and internationally. We investigated whether these trends indicate a resurgence of the HIV epidemic. Methods: HIV incidence was determined among

  3. Fracture risk by HIV infection status in perinatally HIV-exposed children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siberry, George K; Li, Hong; Jacobson, Denise

    2012-03-01

    The objective of this study was to examine the incidence of fractures in HIV-infected children and comparable HIV-exposed, uninfected (HEU) children in a multicenter, prospective cohort study (PACTG 219/219C) in the United States. The main outcome was first fracture during the risk period. Nine fractures occurred in 7 of 1326 HIV-infected and 2 of 649 HEU children, corresponding to incidence rates of 1.2 per 1000 person-years and 1.1 per 1000 person-years, respectively. The incidence rate ratio was 1.1 (95% CI 0.2, 5.5). There was no evidence of a substantially increased risk of fracture in HIV-infected compared to HEU children.

  4. Estimating the Cost-Effectiveness of HIV Prevention Programmes in Vietnam, 2006-2010: A Modelling Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Quang Duy Pham

    Full Text Available Vietnam has been largely reliant on international support in its HIV response. Over 2006-2010, a total of US$480 million was invested in its HIV programmes, more than 70% of which came from international sources. This study investigates the potential epidemiological impacts of these programmes and their cost-effectiveness.We conducted a data synthesis of HIV programming, spending, epidemiological, and clinical outcomes. Counterfactual scenarios were defined based on assumed programme coverage and behaviours had the programmes not been implemented. An epidemiological model, calibrated to reflect the actual epidemiological trends, was used to estimate plausible ranges of programme impacts. The model was then used to estimate the costs per averted infection, death, and disability adjusted life-year (DALY.Based on observed prevalence reductions amongst most population groups, and plausible counterfactuals, modelling suggested that antiretroviral therapy (ART and prevention programmes over 2006-2010 have averted an estimated 50,600 [95% uncertainty bound: 36,300-68,900] new infections and 42,600 [36,100-54,100] deaths, resulting in 401,600 [312,200-496,300] fewer DALYs across all population groups. HIV programmes in Vietnam have cost an estimated US$1,972 [1,447-2,747], US$2,344 [1,843-2,765], and US$248 [201-319] for each averted infection, death, and DALY, respectively.Our evaluation suggests that HIV programmes in Vietnam have most likely had benefits that are cost-effective. ART and direct HIV prevention were the most cost-effective interventions in reducing HIV disease burden.

  5. Estimating the Cost-Effectiveness of HIV Prevention Programmes in Vietnam, 2006-2010: A Modelling Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pham, Quang Duy; Wilson, David P.; Kerr, Cliff C.; Shattock, Andrew J.; Do, Hoa Mai; Duong, Anh Thuy; Nguyen, Long Thanh; Zhang, Lei

    2015-01-01

    Introduction Vietnam has been largely reliant on international support in its HIV response. Over 2006-2010, a total of US$480 million was invested in its HIV programmes, more than 70% of which came from international sources. This study investigates the potential epidemiological impacts of these programmes and their cost-effectiveness. Methods We conducted a data synthesis of HIV programming, spending, epidemiological, and clinical outcomes. Counterfactual scenarios were defined based on assumed programme coverage and behaviours had the programmes not been implemented. An epidemiological model, calibrated to reflect the actual epidemiological trends, was used to estimate plausible ranges of programme impacts. The model was then used to estimate the costs per averted infection, death, and disability adjusted life-year (DALY). Results Based on observed prevalence reductions amongst most population groups, and plausible counterfactuals, modelling suggested that antiretroviral therapy (ART) and prevention programmes over 2006-2010 have averted an estimated 50,600 [95% uncertainty bound: 36,300–68,900] new infections and 42,600 [36,100–54,100] deaths, resulting in 401,600 [312,200–496,300] fewer DALYs across all population groups. HIV programmes in Vietnam have cost an estimated US$1,972 [1,447–2,747], US$2,344 [1,843–2,765], and US$248 [201–319] for each averted infection, death, and DALY, respectively. Conclusions Our evaluation suggests that HIV programmes in Vietnam have most likely had benefits that are cost-effective. ART and direct HIV prevention were the most cost-effective interventions in reducing HIV disease burden. PMID:26196290

  6. Incidence of craniopharyngioma in Denmark (n = 189) and estimated world incidence of craniopharyngioma in children and adults

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Eigil Husted; Feldt-Rasmussen, Ulla; Poulsgaard, Lars

    2011-01-01

    We studied the incidence of craniopharyngioma in Denmark during the period 1985-2004 and estimated worldwide incidence rates (IR) of craniopharyngioma based on a literature review. Craniopharyngioma patients diagnosed during the period 1985-2004 were identified from the Danish National Patient...... PubMed and, if appropriate, were included in a weighted analysis estimating overall and children's IRs of craniopharyngioma. IRs are given as new cases per million per year. We identified 189 patients with new verified (162) or probable craniopharyngioma. The overall WHO World-standardised incidence...

  7. Estimating unbiased economies of scale of HIV prevention projects: a case study of Avahan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lépine, Aurélia; Vassall, Anna; Chandrashekar, Sudha; Blanc, Elodie; Le Nestour, Alexis

    2015-04-01

    Governments and donors are investing considerable resources on HIV prevention in order to scale up these services rapidly. Given the current economic climate, providers of HIV prevention services increasingly need to demonstrate that these investments offer good 'value for money'. One of the primary routes to achieve efficiency is to take advantage of economies of scale (a reduction in the average cost of a health service as provision scales-up), yet empirical evidence on economies of scale is scarce. Methodologically, the estimation of economies of scale is hampered by several statistical issues preventing causal inference and thus making the estimation of economies of scale complex. In order to estimate unbiased economies of scale when scaling up HIV prevention services, we apply our analysis to one of the few HIV prevention programmes globally delivered at a large scale: the Indian Avahan initiative. We costed the project by collecting data from the 138 Avahan NGOs and the supporting partners in the first four years of its scale-up, between 2004 and 2007. We develop a parsimonious empirical model and apply a system Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) and fixed-effects Instrumental Variable (IV) estimators to estimate unbiased economies of scale. At the programme level, we find that, after controlling for the endogeneity of scale, the scale-up of Avahan has generated high economies of scale. Our findings suggest that average cost reductions per person reached are achievable when scaling-up HIV prevention in low and middle income countries. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. How should we best estimate the mean recency duration for the BED method?

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    John Hargrove

    Full Text Available BED estimates of HIV incidence from cross-sectional surveys are obtained by restricting, to fixed time T, the period over which incidence is estimated. The appropriate mean recency duration (Ω(T then refers to the time where BED optical density (OD is less than a pre-set cut-off C, given the patient has been HIV positive for at most time T. Five methods, tested using data for postpartum women in Zimbabwe, provided similar estimates of Ω(T for C = 0.8: i The ratio (r/s of the number of BED-recent infections to all seroconversions over T = 365 days: 192 days [95% CI 168-216]. ii Linear mixed modeling (LMM: 191 days [95% CI 174-208]. iii Non-linear mixed modeling (NLMM: 196 days [95% CrI 188-204]. iv Survival analysis (SA: 192 days [95% CI 168-216]. Graphical analysis: 193 days. NLMM estimates of Ω(T--based on a biologically more appropriate functional relationship than LMM--resulted in best fits to OD data, the smallest variance in estimates of VT, and best correspondence between BED and follow-up estimates of HIV incidence, for the same subjects over the same time period. SA and NLMM produced very similar estimates of Ω(T but the coefficient of variation of the former was .3 times as high. The r/s method requires uniformly distributed seroconversion events but is useful if data are available only from a single follow-up. The graphical method produces the most variable results, involves unsound methodology and should not be used to provide estimates of Ω(T. False-recent rates increased as a quadratic function of C: for incidence estimation C should thus be chosen as small as possible, consistent with an adequate resultant number of recent cases, and accurate estimation of Ω(T. Inaccuracies in the estimation of Ω(T should not now provide an impediment to incidence estimation.

  9. The clinical manifestations of HIV infections in adults presenting to Khartoum state and the incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis among them

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ahmed, Amir Abd Elraouf [Faculty of Medicine, University of Khartoum, Khartoum (Sudan)

    1998-10-01

    This is a prospective study of 60 patients with HIV infection admitted to medical wards at Khartoum Teaching Hospital, Omdurman Teaching Hospital, Tropical Diseases' Hospital in Omdurman, Chest Teaching Hospital in Khartoum State during the period June 1997 to June 1998, to study the clinical manifestations of HIV, the possible mode of transmission and the incidence of tuberculosis among them. The population of the study were those with HIV infection of both sexes above 15 years of age. Data was collected using a questionnaire detailing the medical history, through medical examination and laboratory investigations.

  10. The clinical manifestations of HIV infections in adults presenting to Khartoum state and the incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis among them

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahmed, Amir Abd Elraouf

    1998-10-01

    This is a prospective study of 60 patients with HIV infection admitted to medical wards at Khartoum Teaching Hospital, Omdurman Teaching Hospital, Tropical Diseases' Hospital in Omdurman, Chest Teaching Hospital in Khartoum State during the period June 1997 to June 1998, to study the clinical manifestations of HIV, the possible mode of transmission and the incidence of tuberculosis among them. The population of the study were those with HIV infection of both sexes above 15 years of age. Data was collected using a questionnaire detailing the medical history, through medical examination and laboratory investigations

  11. Estimating effectiveness in HIV prevention trials with a Bayesian hierarchical compound Poisson frailty model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coley, Rebecca Yates; Browna, Elizabeth R.

    2016-01-01

    Inconsistent results in recent HIV prevention trials of pre-exposure prophylactic interventions may be due to heterogeneity in risk among study participants. Intervention effectiveness is most commonly estimated with the Cox model, which compares event times between populations. When heterogeneity is present, this population-level measure underestimates intervention effectiveness for individuals who are at risk. We propose a likelihood-based Bayesian hierarchical model that estimates the individual-level effectiveness of candidate interventions by accounting for heterogeneity in risk with a compound Poisson-distributed frailty term. This model reflects the mechanisms of HIV risk and allows that some participants are not exposed to HIV and, therefore, have no risk of seroconversion during the study. We assess model performance via simulation and apply the model to data from an HIV prevention trial. PMID:26869051

  12. Impact of HIV exposure on health outcomes in HIV-negative infants born to HIV-positive mothers in Sub-Saharan Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moraleda, Cinta; de Deus, Nilsa; Serna-Bolea, Celia; Renom, Montse; Quintó, Llorenç; Macete, Eusebio; Menéndez, Clara; Naniche, Denise

    2014-02-01

    Up to 30% of infants may be HIV-exposed noninfected (ENI) in countries with high HIV prevalence, but the impact of maternal HIV on the child's health remains unclear. One hundred fifty-eight HIV ENI and 160 unexposed (UE) Mozambican infants were evaluated at 1, 3, 9, and 12 months postdelivery. At each visit, a questionnaire was administered, and HIV DNA polymerase chain reaction and hematologic and CD4/CD8 determinations were measured. Linear mixed models were used to evaluate differences in hematologic parameters and T-cell counts between the study groups. All outpatient visits and admissions were registered. ENI infants received cotrimoxazol prophylaxis (CTXP). Negative binomial regression models were estimated to compare incidence rates of outpatient visits and admissions. Hematocrit was lower in ENI than in UE infants at 1, 3, and 9 months of age (P = 0.024, 0.025, and 0.012, respectively). Percentage of CD4 T cells was 3% lower (95% confidence interval: 0.86 to 5.15; P = 0.006) and percentage of CD8 T cells 1.15 times higher (95% confidence interval: 1.06 to 1.25; P = 0.001) in ENI vs. UE infants. ENI infants had a lower weight-for-age Z score (P = 0.049) but reduced incidence of outpatient visits, overall (P = 0.042), diarrhea (P = 0.001), and respiratory conditions (P = 0.042). ENI children were more frequently anemic, had poorer nutritional status, and alterations in some immunologic profiles compared with UE children. CTXP may explain their reduced mild morbidity. These findings may reinforce continuation of CTXP and the need to understand the consequences of maternal HIV exposure in this vulnerable group of children.

  13. Medical UV exposures and HIV activation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zmudzka, B.Z.; Miller, S.A.; Jacobs, M.E.; Beer, J.Z.

    1996-01-01

    This paper presents the first attempt to evaluate the potential of clinical UV exposures to induce the human immunodeficiency (HIV) promoter and, thus, to upregulate HIV growth in those skin cells that are directly affected by the exposure. Using the data for HIV promoter activation in vitro, we computed UVB and psoralen plus UVA (PUVA) doses that produce 50% of the maximal promoter activation (AD 50 ). Then, using (a) literature data for UV transmittance in the human skin, (b) a composite action spectrum for HIV promoter and pyrimidine dimer induction by UVB and (c) an action spectrum for DNA synthesis inhibition by PUVA, we estimated the distribution of medical UVB and PUVA doses in the skin. This allowed us to estimate how deep into the skin the HIV-activating doses might penetrate in an initial and an advanced stge of UVB and PUVA therapy. Such analysis was done for normal type II skin and for single exposures. For UVB we found that, when the incident dose on the surface of the skin is 500 J/m 2 (290-320 nm) (initial stage of the therapy), the dose producing 50% of the maximal HIV promoter activation (AD 50 UVB ) is limited to the stratum corneum. For PUVA we found that, when the incident UVA doses are 25 or 100 kJ/m 2 (320-400 nm) (an initial and an advanced stage of therapy, respectively), and the 8-methoxypsoralen concentration in the blood is 0.1 μg/mL (the desired level), the combined doses to the mid epidermis (and some areas of the upper dermis) are well below the 50% HIV promoter-activating PUVA dose (AD 50 PUVA ). These results suggest that the probability of HIV activation in the epidermis by direct mechanisms is higher for UVB than for PUVA treatment. However, complexities of the UV-inducible HIV activation and immunomodulatory phenomena are such that our results by themselves should not be taken as an indication that UVB therapy carries a high risk than PUVA therapy when administered to HIV-infected patients. (Author)

  14. Using mortality data to estimate radiation effects on breast cancer incidence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoel, D.G.; Dinse, G.E.

    1990-01-01

    In this paper we combine Japanese data on radiation exposure and cancer mortality with U.S. data on cancer incidence and lethality to estimate the effects of ionizing radiation on cancer incidence. The analysis is based on the mathematical relationship between the mortality rate and the incidence and lethality rates, as well as on statistical models that relate Japanese incidence rates to U.S. incidence rates and radiation risk factors. Our approach assumes that the risk of death from causes other than the cancer does not depend on whether or not the cancer is present, and among individuals with the cancer, the risk of death attributable to the cancer is the same in Japan and the U.S. and is not affected by radiation exposure. In particular, we focus on the incidence of breast cancer in Japanese women and how this incidence is affected by radiation risk factors. The analysis uses Japanese exposure and mortality data from the Radiation Effects Research Foundation study of atomic bomb survivors and U.S. incidence and lethality data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Registry. Even without Japanese incidence data, we obtain reasonable estimates of the incidence of breast cancer in unexposed Japanese women and identify the radiation risk factors that affect this incidence. Our analysis demonstrates that the age at exposure is an important risk factor, but that the incidence of breast cancer is not affected by the city of residence (Nagasaki versus Hiroshima) or the time since exposure

  15. Estimation of lifetime cumulative incidence and mortality risk of gastric cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taniyama, Yukari; Katanoda, Kota; Charvat, Hadrien; Hori, Megumi; Ohno, Yuko; Sasazuki, Shizuka; Tsugane, Shoichiro

    2017-11-01

    To estimate cumulative incidence and mortality risk for gastric cancer by risk category. Risk was classified into four types according to the presence/absence of Helicobacter pylori infection and chronic atrophic gastritis: in order of lowest to highest risk, Group A: H. pylori(-) and atrophic gastritis(-); Group B: H. pylori(+) and atrophic gastritis(-); Group C:H. pylori(+) and atrophic gastritis(+); and, Group D: H. pylori(-) and atrophic gastritis(+). We used vital statistics for the crude all-cause and crude gastric cancer mortality rates in 2011 and data from population-based cancer registries (the Monitoring of Cancer Incidence in Japan) for gastric cancer incidence in 2011. For relative risk and prevalence, we used the results of a meta-analysis integrating previous studies and data from the Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Study for the Next Generation, respectively (baseline survey 2011-16). We calculated the crude incidence and mortality rates and estimated the cumulative risk using a life-table method. The estimated lifetime cumulative incidence risk was 11.4% for men and 5.7% for women. The estimated risk for Groups A, B, C and D was 2.4%, 10.8%, 26.7% and 35.5% for men, and 1.2%, 5.5%, 13.5% and 18.0% for women, respectively. Similarly, the estimated lifetime cumulative mortality risk was 3.9% for men and 1.8% for women. The estimated risk of mortality for Groups A, B, C and D was 0.8%, 3.6%, 9.0% and 12.0% for men, and 0.4%, 1.7%, 4.2% and 5.7% for women, respectively. Our results may be useful for designing individually tailored prevention programs. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press.

  16. Population and antenatal-based HIV prevalence estimates in a high contracepting female population in rural South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Barnighausen Till

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background To present and compare population-based and antenatal-care (ANC sentinel surveillance HIV prevalence estimates among women in a rural South African population where both provision of ANC services and family planning is prevalent and fertility is declining. With a need, in such settings, to understand how to appropriately adjust ANC sentinel surveillance estimates to represent HIV prevalence in general populations, and with evidence of possible biases inherent to both surveillance systems, we explore differences between the two systems. There is particular emphasis on unrepresentative selection of ANC clinics and unrepresentative testing in the population. Methods HIV sero-prevalence amongst blood samples collected from women consenting to test during the 2005 annual longitudinal population-based serological survey was compared to anonymous unlinked HIV sero-prevalence amongst women attending antenatal care (ANC first visits in six clinics (January to May 2005. Both surveillance systems were conducted as part of the Africa Centre Demographic Information System. Results Population-based HIV prevalence estimates for all women (25.2% and pregnant women (23.7% were significantly lower than that for ANC attendees (37.7%. A large proportion of women attending urban or peri-urban clinics would be predicted to be resident within rural areas. Although overall estimates remained significantly different, presenting and standardising estimates by age and location (clinic for ANC-based estimates and individual-residence for population-based estimates made some group-specific estimates from the two surveillance systems more predictive of one another. Conclusion It is likely that where ANC coverage and contraceptive use is widespread and fertility is low, population-based surveillance under-estimates HIV prevalence due to unrepresentative testing by age, residence and also probably by HIV status, and that ANC sentinel surveillance over-estimates

  17. Analysis of HIV early infant diagnosis data to estimate rates of perinatal HIV transmission in Zambia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kwasi Torpey

    Full Text Available Mother-to-child transmission of HIV (MTCT remains the most prevalent source of pediatric HIV infection. Most PMTCT (prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV programs have concentrated monitoring and evaluation efforts on process rather than on outcome indicators. In this paper, we review service data from 28,320 children born to HIV-positive mothers to estimate MTCT rates.This study analyzed DNA PCR results and PMTCT data from perinatally exposed children zero to 12 months of age from five Zambian provinces between September 2007 and July 2010.The majority of children (58.6% had a PCR test conducted between age six weeks and six months. Exclusive breastfeeding (56.8% was the most frequent feeding method. An estimated 45.9% of mothers were below 30 years old and 93.3% had disclosed their HIV status. In terms of ARV regimen for PMTCT, 32.7% received AZT+single dose NVP (sdNVP, 30.9% received highly active antiretroviral treatment (HAART, 19.6% received sdNVP only and 12.9% received no ARVs. Transmission rates at six weeks when ARVs were received by both mother and baby, mother only, baby only, and none were 5.8%, 10.5%, 15.8% and 21.8% respectively. Transmission rates at six weeks where mother received HAART, AZT+sd NVP, sdNVP, and no intervention were 4.2%, 6.8%, 8.7% and 20.1% respectively. Based on adjusted analysis including ARV exposures and non ARV-related parameters, lower rates of positive PCR results were associated with 1 both mother and infant receiving prophylaxis, 2 children never breastfed and 3 mother being 30 years old or greater. Overall between September 2007 and July 2010, 12.2% of PCR results were HIV positive. Between September 2007 and January 2009, then between February 2009 and July 2010, proportions of positive PCR results were 15.1% and 11% respectively, a significant difference.The use of ARV drugs reduces vertical transmission of HIV in a program setting. Non-chemoprophylactic factors also play a significant

  18. Antiretroviral therapy enrollment characteristics and outcomes among HIV-infected adolescents and young adults compared with older adults--seven African countries, 2004-2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Auld, Andrew F; Agolory, Simon G; Shiraishi, Ray W; Wabwire-Mangen, Fred; Kwesigabo, Gideon; Mulenga, Modest; Hachizovu, Sebastian; Asadu, Emeka; Tuho, Moise Zanga; Ettiegne-Traore, Virginie; Mbofana, Francisco; Okello, Velephi; Azih, Charles; Denison, Julie A; Tsui, Sharon; Koole, Olivier; Kamiru, Harrison; Nuwagaba-Biribonwoha, Harriet; Alfredo, Charity; Jobarteh, Kebba; Odafe, Solomon; Onotu, Dennis; Ekra, Kunomboa A; Kouakou, Joseph S; Ehrenkranz, Peter; Bicego, George; Torpey, Kwasi; Mukadi, Ya Diul; van Praag, Eric; Menten, Joris; Mastro, Timothy; Dukes Hamilton, Carol; Swaminathan, Mahesh; Dokubo, E Kainne; Baughman, Andrew L; Spira, Thomas; Colebunders, Robert; Bangsberg, David; Marlink, Richard; Zee, Aaron; Kaplan, Jonathan; Ellerbrock, Tedd V

    2014-11-28

    Although scale-up of antiretroviral therapy (ART) since 2005 has contributed to declines of about 30% in the global annual number of human immunodeficiency (HIV)-related deaths and declines in global HIV incidence, estimated annual HIV-related deaths among adolescents have increased by about 50% and estimated adolescent HIV incidence has been relatively stable. In 2012, an estimated 2,500 (40%) of all 6,300 daily new HIV infections occurred among persons aged 15-24 years. Difficulty enrolling adolescents and young adults in ART and high rates of loss to follow-up (LTFU) after ART initiation might be contributing to mortality and HIV incidence in this age group, but data are limited. To evaluate age-related ART retention challenges, data from retrospective cohort studies conducted in seven African countries among 16,421 patients, aged ≥15 years at enrollment, who initiated ART during 2004-2012 were analyzed. ART enrollment and outcome data were compared among three groups defined by age at enrollment: adolescents and young adults (aged 15-24 years), middle-aged adults (aged 25-49 years), and older adults (aged ≥50 years). Enrollees aged 15-24 years were predominantly female (81%-92%), commonly pregnant (3%-32% of females), unmarried (54%-73%), and, in four countries with employment data, unemployed (53%-86%). In comparison, older adults were more likely to be male (padults, adolescents and young adults had higher LTFU rates in all seven countries, reaching statistical significance in three countries in crude and multivariable analyses. Evidence-based interventions to reduce LTFU for adolescent and young adult ART enrollees could help reduce mortality and HIV incidence in this age group.

  19. Estimating the Number of Heterosexual Persons in the United States to Calculate National Rates of HIV Infection.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amy Lansky

    Full Text Available This study estimated the proportions and numbers of heterosexuals in the United States (U.S. to calculate rates of heterosexually acquired human immunodeficiency virus (HIV infection. Quantifying the burden of disease can inform effective prevention planning and resource allocation.Heterosexuals were defined as males and females who ever had sex with an opposite-sex partner and excluded those with other HIV risks: persons who ever injected drugs and males who ever had sex with another man. We conducted meta-analysis using data from 3 national probability surveys that measured lifetime (ever sexual activity and injection drug use among persons aged 15 years and older to estimate the proportion of heterosexuals in the United States population. We then applied the proportion of heterosexual persons to census data to produce population size estimates. National HIV infection rates among heterosexuals were calculated using surveillance data (cases attributable to heterosexual contact in the numerators and the heterosexual population size estimates in the denominators.Adult and adolescent heterosexuals comprised an estimated 86.7% (95% confidence interval: 84.1%-89.3% of the U.S. population. The estimate for males was 84.1% (CI: 81.2%-86.9% and for females was 89.4% (95% CI: 86.9%-91.8%. The HIV diagnosis rate for 2013 was 5.2 per 100,000 heterosexuals and the rate of persons living with diagnosed HIV infection in 2012 was 104 per 100,000 heterosexuals aged 13 years or older. Rates of HIV infection were >20 times as high among black heterosexuals compared to white heterosexuals, indicating considerable disparity. Rates among heterosexual men demonstrated higher disparities than overall population rates for men.The best available data must be used to guide decision-making for HIV prevention. HIV rates among heterosexuals in the U.S. are important additions to cost effectiveness and other data used to make critical decisions about resources for

  20. Estimation and Projection of Lung Cancer Incidence and Mortality in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaonong ZOU

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Background and objective The aim of this study is to analyze lung cancer epidemiological trend and estimate lung cancer burden in China. Methods Lung cancer age specific mortality and incidence rate ratios in different areas and sexes were obtained from national cancer registration database in 2004 and 2005. Cancer crude mortalities were retrieved from the database of the third national death survey, 2004-2005. Age specific incidence rates of lung cancer were calculated using mortality and M/I ratios. Annual percent change (APC was estimated by log regression model using Joint Point software by analyzing pooled lung cancer incidence data from 10 cancer registries from 1988 to 2005. Results The total estimated new cases and deaths of lung cancer in 2005 were 536 407 and 475 768 which were higher in male than in female. There was 1.63% increase of lung cancer incidence per year from 1988 to 2005, however, the trend showed a slowdown by 0.55% annually after adjusted by age. Conclusion Lung cancer is one of major health issues in China and the burden is getting serious. Ageing population is main cause for increasing incidence and mortality of lung cancer. Effective cancer prevention and control is imperative. Especially, tobacco control should be carried out in statewide.

  1. Provider-initiated HIV testing & counselling in incident tuberculosis cases under National TB Programme conditions at a tertiary care teaching hospital in Tirupati, south India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alladi Mohan

    2017-01-01

    >Interpretation & conclusions: The findings of this study showed that a higher proportion of TB patients underwent HIV testing (75% compared to the national figure of 63 per cent in 2013-2014. HIV seropositivity (4.6% in TB patients who underwent HIV testing was similar to the five per cent figure observed at national level during 2013-2014. The HIV status of 25 per cent of patients with incident TB still remained unknown, suggesting a need for better integration and co-ordination for effective management of HIV-TB co-infection.

  2. ESTIMATION OF CONSTANT AND TIME-VARYING DYNAMIC PARAMETERS OF HIV INFECTION IN A NONLINEAR DIFFERENTIAL EQUATION MODEL.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Hua; Miao, Hongyu; Wu, Hulin

    2010-03-01

    Modeling viral dynamics in HIV/AIDS studies has resulted in deep understanding of pathogenesis of HIV infection from which novel antiviral treatment guidance and strategies have been derived. Viral dynamics models based on nonlinear differential equations have been proposed and well developed over the past few decades. However, it is quite challenging to use experimental or clinical data to estimate the unknown parameters (both constant and time-varying parameters) in complex nonlinear differential equation models. Therefore, investigators usually fix some parameter values, from the literature or by experience, to obtain only parameter estimates of interest from clinical or experimental data. However, when such prior information is not available, it is desirable to determine all the parameter estimates from data. In this paper, we intend to combine the newly developed approaches, a multi-stage smoothing-based (MSSB) method and the spline-enhanced nonlinear least squares (SNLS) approach, to estimate all HIV viral dynamic parameters in a nonlinear differential equation model. In particular, to the best of our knowledge, this is the first attempt to propose a comparatively thorough procedure, accounting for both efficiency and accuracy, to rigorously estimate all key kinetic parameters in a nonlinear differential equation model of HIV dynamics from clinical data. These parameters include the proliferation rate and death rate of uninfected HIV-targeted cells, the average number of virions produced by an infected cell, and the infection rate which is related to the antiviral treatment effect and is time-varying. To validate the estimation methods, we verified the identifiability of the HIV viral dynamic model and performed simulation studies. We applied the proposed techniques to estimate the key HIV viral dynamic parameters for two individual AIDS patients treated with antiretroviral therapies. We demonstrate that HIV viral dynamics can be well characterized and

  3. The impact of HIV and ART on recurrent tuberculosis in a sub-Saharan setting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Houben, Rein M G J; Glynn, Judith R; Mboma, Sebastian; Mzemba, Themba; Mwaungulu, Nimrod J; Mwaungulu, Lorren; Mwenibabu, Michael; Mpunga, James; French, Neil; Crampin, Amelia C

    2012-11-13

    To estimate the impact of antiretroviral therapy (ART) on the incidence of recurrent tuberculosis (TB) in an African population. A long-term population cohort in Karonga District, northern Malawi. Patients who had completed treatment for laboratory-confirmed TB diagnosed since 1996 were visited annually to record vital status, ART use and screen for TB. Survival analysis estimated the effect of HIV/ART status at completion of treatment on mortality and recurrence. Analyses were stratified by time since treatment completion to estimate the effects on relapse (predominates during first year) and reinfection disease (predominates later). Among 1133 index TB cases contributing 4353 person-years of follow-up, there were 307 deaths and 103 laboratory-confirmed recurrences (recurrence rate 4.6 per 100 person-years). Half the recurrences occurred in the first year since completing treatment. HIV infection increased the recurrence rate [rate ratio adjusted for age, sex, period and TB type 2.69, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.69-4.26], but with less effect in the first year (adjusted rate ratio 1.71, 95% CI 0.87-3.35) than subsequently (adjusted rate ratio 4.2, 95% CI 2.16-8.15). Recurrence rates on ART were intermediate between those of HIV-negative individuals and HIV-positive individuals without ART. Compared with HIV-positive individuals without ART, the adjusted rate ratio was 0.74 (95% CI 0.27-2.06) in the first year, and 0.43 (95% CI 0.11-1.73) later. The increased incidence of TB recurrence observed in HIV-positive patients appeared to be reduced by ART. The effects are mostly on later (likely reinfection) disease so the impact of ART on reducing recurrence will be highest in high TB incidence settings.

  4. Risk of Colorectal Cancer and Associated Mortality in HIV: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    OʼNeill, Tyler J; Nguemo, Joseph D; Tynan, Anne-Marie; Burchell, Ann N; Antoniou, Tony

    2017-08-01

    As people with HIV live longer, the numbers of colorectal cancer cases are expected to increase. We sought to compare the colorectal cancer incidence and cause-specific mortality among people living with and without HIV. Systematic review and meta-analysis. We searched 5 electronic databases up to June 28, 2016, for primary studies reporting standardized incidence ratios (SIRs), standardized mortality ratios (SMRs)/hazard ratios or data sufficient for estimating these summary measures. We performed a random effects pooled analysis to estimate SIR and SMR of colorectal cancer in HIV. Of 8110 articles, we included 27 studies from North America (n = 18), Europe (n = 7), the Pacific region (n = 4), and South America (n = 1). Overall, 1660 cases of colorectal cancer and colon cancer (excluding rectal cancer) occurred among 1,696,070 persons with HIV. In pooled analysis, we found no summary risk of malignancy among those with HIV relative to an uninfected population (SIR 1.00; 95% confidence interval 0.82 to 1.22; I = 89.2%). Colorectal cancer-specific mortality was higher among people with HIV but did not reach statistical significance (SMR 2.09; 95% confidence interval: 1.00 to 4.40; I = 85.0%). Rates of colorectal cancer are similar between people with and without HIV. Existing screening guidelines are likely adequate for people with HIV.

  5. Estimating the number of HIV-infected injection drug users in Bangkok: a capture--recapture method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mastro, T D; Kitayaporn, D; Weniger, B G; Vanichseni, S; Laosunthorn, V; Uneklabh, T; Uneklabh, C; Choopanya, K; Limpakarnjanarat, K

    1994-07-01

    The purpose of the study was to estimate the number of injection drug users infected with the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in Bangkok to allow planning for health services for this population. A two-sample capture-recapture method was used. The first capture listed all persons on methadone treatment for opiate addiction from April 17 through May 17, 1991, at 18 facilities in Bangkok. The second capture involved urine testing of persons held at 72 Bangkok police stations from June 3 through September 30, 1991. Persons whose urine tests were positive for opiate metabolites or methadone were included on the second list. The first capture comprised 4064 persons and the recapture 1540 persons. There were 171 persons included on both lists, yielding an estimate of 36,600 opiate users in Bangkok. Existing data indicate that 89% of opiate users in Bangkok inject drugs and that about one third are infected with HIV, yielding an estimate of approximately 12,000 HIV-infected injection drug users in Bangkok in 1991. During the 1990s the number of cases of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) and other HIV-related diseases, including tuberculosis, in the population of HIV-infected injection drug users in Bangkok will increase dramatically, placing new demands on existing health care facilities. The capture-recapture method may be useful in estimating difficult-to-count populations, including injection drug users.

  6. Focusing the HIV response through estimating the major modes of HIV transmission: a multi-country analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gouws, Eleanor; Cuchi, Paloma

    2012-01-01

    Objective An increasing number of countries have been estimating the distribution of new adult HIV infections by modes of transmission (MOT) to help prioritise prevention efforts. We compare results from studies conducted between 2008 and 2012 and discuss their use for planning and responding to the HIV epidemic. Methods The UNAIDS recommended MOT model helps countries to estimate the proportion of new HIV infections that occur through key transmission modes including sex work, injecting drug use (IDU), men having sex with men (MSM), multiple sexual partnerships, stable relationships and medical interventions. The model typically forms part of a country-led process that includes a comprehensive review of epidemiological data. Recent revisions to the model are described. Results Modelling results from 25 countries show large variation between and within regions. In sub-Saharan Africa, new infections occur largely in the general heterosexual population because of multiple partnerships or in stable discordant relationships, while sex work contributes significantly to new infections in West Africa. IDU and sex work are the main contributors to new infections in the Middle East and North Africa, with MSM the main contributor in Latin America. Patterns vary substantially between countries in Eastern Europe and Asia in terms of the relative contribution of sex work, MSM, IDU and spousal transmission. Conclusions The MOT modelling results, comprehensive review and critical assessment of data in a country can contribute to a more strategically focused HIV response. To strengthen this type of research, improved epidemiological and behavioural data by risk population are needed. PMID:23172348

  7. Supra-treatment threshold neonatal jaundice: Incidence in HIV ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    with HIV are more likely to be born premature, with low birth weight, and to become septic—all ... low birth weight (all risk factors for neonatal jaundice) in the infants of HIV- ..... all HIV-seroreactive pregnant and breastfeeding women should be ...

  8. Projecting Sexual and Injecting HIV Risks into Future Outcomes with Agent-Based Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bobashev, Georgiy V.; Morris, Robert J.; Zule, William A.

    Longitudinal studies of health outcomes for HIV could be very costly cumbersome and not representative of the risk population. Conversely, cross-sectional approaches could be representative but rely on the retrospective information to estimate prevalence and incidence. We present an Agent-based Modeling (ABM) approach where we use behavioral data from a cross-sectional representative study and project the behavior into the future so that the risks of acquiring HIV could be studied in a dynamical/temporal sense. We show how the blend of behavior and contact network factors (sexual, injecting) play the role in the risk of future HIV acquisition and time till obtaining HIV. We show which subjects are the most likely persons to get HIV in the next year, and whom they are likely to infect. We examine how different behaviors are related to the increase or decrease of HIV risks and how to estimate the quantifiable risk measures such as survival HIV free.

  9. Immunological non-response and low hemoglobin levels are predictors of incident tuberculosis among HIV-infected individuals on Truvada-based therapy in Botswana.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mupfumi, Lucy; Moyo, Sikhulile; Molebatsi, Kesaobaka; Thami, Prisca K; Anderson, Motswedi; Mogashoa, Tuelo; Iketleng, Thato; Makhema, Joseph; Marlink, Ric; Kasvosve, Ishmael; Essex, Max; Musonda, Rosemary M; Gaseitsiwe, Simani

    2018-01-01

    There is a high burden of tuberculosis (TB) in HIV antiretroviral programmes in Africa. However, few studies have looked at predictors of incident TB while on Truvada-based combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) regimens. We estimated TB incidence among individuals enrolled into an observational cohort evaluating the efficacy and tolerability of Truvada-based cART in Gaborone, Botswana between 2008 and 2011. We used Cox proportional hazards regressions to determine predictors of incident TB. Of 300 participants enrolled, 45 (15%) had a diagnosis of TB at baseline. During 428 person-years (py) of follow-up, the incidence rate of TB was 3.04/100py (95% CI, 1.69-5.06), with 60% of the cases occurring within 3 months of ART initiation. Incident cases had low baseline CD4+ T cell counts (153cells/mm3 [Q1, Q3: 82, 242]; p = 0.69) and hemoglobin levels (9.2g/dl [Q1, Q3: 8.5,10.1]; pimmunological recovery (p = 0.04). There was no association between baseline viral load and risk of TB (HR = 1.75; 95%CI: 0.70-4.37). Low hemoglobin levels prior to initiation of ART are significant predictors of incident tuberculosis. Therefore, there is potential utility of iron biomarkers to identify patients at risk of TB prior to initiation on ART. Furthermore, additional strategies are required for patients with poor immunological recovery to reduce excess risk of TB while on ART.

  10. HIV testing and counselling in Estonian prisons, 2012 to 2013: aims, processes and impacts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kivimets, K; Uuskula, A

    2014-11-27

    We present data from an observational cohort study on human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevention and control measures in prisons in Estonia to assess the potential for HIV transmission in this setting. HIV testing and retesting data from the Estonian prison health department were used to estimate HIV prevalence and incidence in prison. Since 2002, voluntary HIV counselling and testing has routinely been offered to all prisoners and has been part of the new prisoners health check. At the end of 2012, there were 3,289 prisoners in Estonia, including 170 women: 28.5% were drug users and 15.6% were infected with HIV. Of the HIV-positive inmates, 8.3% were newly diagnosed on prison entry. In 2012, 4,387 HIV tests (including retests) were performed in Estonian prisons. Among 1,756 initially HIV-negative prisoners who were in prison for more than one year and therefore tested for HIV twice within 12 months (at entry and annual testing), one new HIV infection was detected, an incidence of 0.067 per 100 person-years (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.025–5.572). This analysis indicates low risk of HIV transmission in Estonian prisons. Implementation of HIV management interventions could impact positively on the health of prisoners and the communities to which they return.

  11. Allocating HIV prevention funds in the United States: recommendations from an optimization model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arielle Lasry

    Full Text Available The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC had an annual budget of approximately $327 million to fund health departments and community-based organizations for core HIV testing and prevention programs domestically between 2001 and 2006. Annual HIV incidence has been relatively stable since the year 2000 and was estimated at 48,600 cases in 2006 and 48,100 in 2009. Using estimates on HIV incidence, prevalence, prevention program costs and benefits, and current spending, we created an HIV resource allocation model that can generate a mathematically optimal allocation of the Division of HIV/AIDS Prevention's extramural budget for HIV testing, and counseling and education programs. The model's data inputs and methods were reviewed by subject matter experts internal and external to the CDC via an extensive validation process. The model projects the HIV epidemic for the United States under different allocation strategies under a fixed budget. Our objective is to support national HIV prevention planning efforts and inform the decision-making process for HIV resource allocation. Model results can be summarized into three main recommendations. First, more funds should be allocated to testing and these should further target men who have sex with men and injecting drug users. Second, counseling and education interventions ought to provide a greater focus on HIV positive persons who are aware of their status. And lastly, interventions should target those at high risk for transmitting or acquiring HIV, rather than lower-risk members of the general population. The main conclusions of the HIV resource allocation model have played a role in the introduction of new programs and provide valuable guidance to target resources and improve the impact of HIV prevention efforts in the United States.

  12. Inter-laboratory assessment of a prototype multiplex kit for determination of recent HIV-1 infection.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kelly A Curtis

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Accurate and reliable laboratory-based assays are needed for estimating HIV-1 incidence from cross-sectional samples. We recently described the development of a customized, HIV-1-specific Bio-Plex assay that allows for the measurement of HIV-specific antibody levels and avidity to multiple analytes for improved HIV-1 incidence estimates. METHODS: To assess intra- and inter-laboratory assay performance, prototype multiplex kits were developed and evaluated by three distinct laboratories. Longitudinal seroconversion specimens were tested in parallel by each laboratory and kit performance was compared to that of an in-house assay. Additionally, the ability of the kit to distinguish recent from long-term HIV-1 infection, as compared to the in-house assay, was determined by comparing the reactivity of known recent (infected 12 months drug naïve specimens. RESULTS: Although the range of reactivity for each analyte varied between the prototype kit and in-house assay, a measurable distinction in reactivity between recent and long-term specimens was observed with both assays in all three laboratories. Additionally, kit performance was consistent between all three laboratories. The intra-assay coefficient of variation (CV, between sample replicates for all laboratories, ranged from 0.5% to 6.1%. The inter-laboratory CVs ranged from 8.5% to 21.3% for gp160-avidity index (a and gp120-normalized mean fluorescent intensity (MFI value (n, respectively. CONCLUSION: We demonstrate the feasibility of producing a multiplex kit for measuring HIV antibody levels and avidity, with the potential for improved incidence estimates based on multi-analyte algorithms. The availability of a commercial kit will facilitate the transfer of technology among diverse laboratories for widespread assay use.

  13. An epidemiological modelling study to estimate the composition of HIV-positive populations including migrants from endemic settings

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nakagawa, F; Delpech, V; Albert, J

    2017-01-01

    were undiagnosed respectively. CONCLUSION: We have shown a working example to characterize the HIV population in a European context which incorporates migrants from countries with generalized epidemics. Despite all aspects of HIV care being free and widely available to anyone in need in the UK......OBJECTIVE: Migrants account for a significant number of people living with HIV in Europe, and it is important to fully consider this population in national estimates. Using a novel approach with the UK as an example, we present key public health measures of the HIV epidemic, taking into account...... of these people, 24 600 (15 000-36 200) were estimated to be undiagnosed; this number has remained stable over the last decade. An estimated 32% of the total undiagnosed population had CD4 cell count less than 350 cells/μl in 2013. Twenty-five and 23% of black African men and women heterosexuals living with HIV...

  14. Decline in HIV incidence and injecting, but not in sexual risk behaviour, seen in drug users in Amsterdam: a 19-year prospective cohort study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lindenburg, Catharina E. A.; Krol, Anneke; Smit, Colette; Buster, Marcel C. A.; Coutinho, Roel A.; Prins, Maria

    2006-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To study temporal changes in HIV incidence, HIV transmission routes, and both injecting and sexual risk behaviour in the open Amsterdam Cohort Study (ACS) among drug users. Initiated in 1985, the ACS enables us to study changes in trends since HAART became widespread in 1996. METHODS:

  15. Hormonal Contraception and the Risk of HIV Acquisition: An Individual Participant Data Meta-analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morrison, Charles S.; Chen, Pai-Lien; Kwok, Cynthia; Baeten, Jared M.; Brown, Joelle; Crook, Angela M.; Van Damme, Lut; Delany-Moretlwe, Sinead; Francis, Suzanna C.; Friedland, Barbara A.; Hayes, Richard J.; Heffron, Renee; Kapiga, Saidi; Karim, Quarraisha Abdool; Karpoff, Stephanie; Kaul, Rupert; McClelland, R. Scott; McCormack, Sheena; McGrath, Nuala; Myer, Landon; Rees, Helen; van der Straten, Ariane; Watson-Jones, Deborah; van de Wijgert, Janneke H. H. M.; Stalter, Randy; Low, Nicola

    2015-01-01

    Background Observational studies of a putative association between hormonal contraception (HC) and HIV acquisition have produced conflicting results. We conducted an individual participant data (IPD) meta-analysis of studies from sub-Saharan Africa to compare the incidence of HIV infection in women using combined oral contraceptives (COCs) or the injectable progestins depot-medroxyprogesterone acetate (DMPA) or norethisterone enanthate (NET-EN) with women not using HC. Methods and Findings Eligible studies measured HC exposure and incident HIV infection prospectively using standardized measures, enrolled women aged 15–49 y, recorded ≥15 incident HIV infections, and measured prespecified covariates. Our primary analysis estimated the adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) using two-stage random effects meta-analysis, controlling for region, marital status, age, number of sex partners, and condom use. We included 18 studies, including 37,124 women (43,613 woman-years) and 1,830 incident HIV infections. Relative to no HC use, the aHR for HIV acquisition was 1.50 (95% CI 1.24–1.83) for DMPA use, 1.24 (95% CI 0.84–1.82) for NET-EN use, and 1.03 (95% CI 0.88–1.20) for COC use. Between-study heterogeneity was mild (I2 HIV acquisition compared with COC use (aHR 1.43, 95% CI 1.23–1.67) and NET-EN use (aHR 1.32, 95% CI 1.08–1.61). Effect estimates were attenuated for studies at lower risk of methodological bias (compared with no HC use, aHR for DMPA use 1.22, 95% CI 0.99–1.50; for NET-EN use 0.67, 95% CI 0.47–0.96; and for COC use 0.91, 95% CI 0.73–1.41) compared to those at higher risk of bias (pinteraction = 0.003). Neither age nor herpes simplex virus type 2 infection status modified the HC–HIV relationship. Conclusions This IPD meta-analysis found no evidence that COC or NET-EN use increases women’s risk of HIV but adds to the evidence that DMPA may increase HIV risk, underscoring the need for additional safe and effective contraceptive options for women at

  16. Incidence and characteristics of sexually transmitted acute hepatitis C virus infection among HIV-positive men who have sex with men in Copenhagen, Denmark during four years (2006-2009): a retrospective cohort study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barfod, Toke S; Omland, Lars Haukali; Katzenstein, Terese L

    2011-01-01

    We determined the incidence of hepatitis C virus among Danish human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive men who have sex with men (MSM) and described their characteristics. We included 871 HIV-positive MSM seen from 1 January 2006 to 31 December 2009 at Rigshospitalet in Copenhagen; drug users...... were excluded. We found 13 incident infections, i.e. a yearly incidence of 0.4%....

  17. An estimate of the magnitude and trend of HIV/AIDS epidemic using data from the routine VCT services as an alternative data source to ANC sentinel surveillance in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Getachew, Yehenew; Gotu, Butte; Enquselassie, Fikre

    2010-10-01

    Since early 1980s when AIDS was first recognized, there has been uncertainty about the future trend and the ultimate dimensions of the pandemic. This uncertainty persists because of difficulties in measuring HIV incidence and prevalence with a substantial degree of precision in a given population. One of the many factors for the lack of precision is the problem of obtaining representative data sources that can be extrapolated to the general population. National and regional HIV estimates for Ethiopia are derived from ANC based HIV surveillance data. Alternative data sources have not been exhaustively explored as potential tools to monitor the trend of HIV/ AIDS epidemic in the country. To estimate the magnitude and trend of HIV/AIDS epidemic using data from the routine VCT services as an alternative data source to ANC sentinel surveillance data. The study used secondary data sources from all government, private and NGO VCT centers, of the period of 2003-2005 in Addis Ababa. For the purpose of making comparative analysis of the VCT based estimations and projections, records of all five sentinel sites in Addis Ababa for the period 1983-2003 were reviewed. Both ANC and VCT data sources showed similar and regular trends from the beginning of the HIV epidemic till the year 1995 where the ANC showed a relatively higher prevalence rates than VCT data, with a maximum difference in HIV prevalence of 1.06% in 1993. However, a higher HIV prevalence was noted for the VCT than the ANC data source for the period of 1996-2002, with a maximum difference of 1.4% in 1998, the year when both the ANC and VCT modeled HIV prevalence reached the highest peak in Addis Ababa. On the contrary, the ANC based prevalence was higher than the VCT data for the period 2004-2010, with a maximum difference of 2.2%. This study suggests that VCT based HIV prevalence data closely approximates the ANC based data. Therefore VCT data source can be valuable to complement the ANC data in monitoring the HIV

  18. Epidemiologic contributions to recent cancer trends among HIV-infected people in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robbins, Hilary A; Shiels, Meredith S; Pfeiffer, Ruth M; Engels, Eric A

    2014-03-27

    HIV-infected people have elevated risk for some cancers. Changing incidence of these cancers over time may reflect changes in three factors: HIV population demographic structure (e.g. age distribution), general population (background) cancer rates, and HIV-associated relative risks. We assessed the contributions of these factors to time trends for 10 cancers during 1996-2010. Population-based registry linkage study. We applied Poisson models to data from the U.S. HIV/AIDS Cancer Match Study to estimate annual percentage changes (APCs) in incidence rates of AIDS-defining cancers [ADCs: Kaposi sarcoma, non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL), and cervical cancer] and seven non-AIDS-defining cancers (NADCs). We evaluated HIV-infected cancer trends with and without adjustment for demographics, trends in background rates, and trends in standardized incidence ratios (SIRs, to capture relative risk). Cancer rates among HIV-infected people rose over time for anal (APC 3.8%), liver (8.5%), and prostate (9.8%) cancers, but declined for Kaposi sarcoma (1996-2000: -29.3%; 2000-2010: -7.8%), NHL (1996-2003: -15.7%; 2003-2010: -5.5%), cervical cancer (-11.1%), Hodgkin lymphoma (-4.0%), and lung cancer (-2.8%). Breast and colorectal cancer incidence did not change over time. Based on comparison to adjusted models, changing demographics contributed to trends for Kaposi sarcoma and breast, colorectal, liver, lung, and prostate cancers (all P cancers. SIRs declined for ADCs, Hodgkin lymphoma (APC -3.2%), and lung cancer (-4.4%). Demographic shifts influenced several cancer trends among HIV-infected individuals. Falling relative risks largely explained ADC declines, while background incidence contributed to some NADC trends.

  19. The contribution of maternal HIV seroconversion during late pregnancy and breastfeeding to mother-to-child transmission of HIV

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Leigh F.; Stinson, Kathryn; Newell, Marie-Louise; Bland, Ruth M.; Moultrie, Harry; Davies, Mary-Ann; Rehle, Thomas M.; Dorrington, Rob E.; Sherman, Gayle G.

    2012-01-01

    Background The prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) of HIV has been focused mainly on women who are HIV-positive at their first antenatal visit, but there is uncertainty regarding the contribution to overall transmission from mothers who seroconvert after their first antenatal visit and before weaning. Method A mathematical model was developed to simulate changes in mother-to-child transmission of HIV over time, in South Africa. The model allows for changes in infant feeding practices as infants age, temporal changes in the provision of antiretroviral prophylaxis and counselling on infant feeding, as well as temporal changes in maternal HIV prevalence and incidence. Results The proportion of MTCT from mothers who seroconverted after their first antenatal visit was 26% (95% CI: 22-30%) in 2008, or 15 000 out of 57 000 infections. It is estimated that by 2014, total MTCT will reduce to 39 000 per annum, and transmission from mothers seroconverting after their first antenatal visit will reduce to 13 000 per annum, accounting for 34% (95% CI: 29-39%) of MTCT. If maternal HIV incidence during late pregnancy and breastfeeding were reduced by 50% after 2010, and HIV screening were repeated in late pregnancy and at 6-week immunization visits after 2010, the average annual number of MTCT cases over the 2010-15 period would reduce by 28% (95% CI: 25-31%), from 39 000 to 28 000 per annum. Conclusion Maternal seroconversion during late pregnancy and breastfeeding contributes significantly to the paediatric HIV burden, and needs greater attention in the planning of PMTCT programmes. PMID:22193774

  20. Cost-effectiveness of a brief video-based HIV intervention for African American and Latino sexually transmitted disease clinic clients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sweat, M; O'Donnell, C; O'Donnell, L

    2001-04-13

    Decisions about the dissemination of HIV interventions need to be informed by evidence of their cost-effectiveness in reducing negative health outcomes. Having previously shown the effectiveness of a single-session video-based group intervention (VOICES/VOCES) in reducing incidence of sexually transmitted diseases (STD) among male African American and Latino clients attending an urban STD clinic, this study estimates its cost-effectiveness in terms of disease averted. Cost-effectiveness was calculated using data on effectiveness from a randomized clinical trial of the VOICES/VOCES intervention along with updated data on the costs of intervention from four replication sites. STD incidence and self-reported behavioral data were used to make estimates of reduction in HIV incidence among study participants. The average annual cost to provide the intervention to 10 000 STD clinic clients was estimated to be US$447 005, with a cost per client of US$43.30. This expenditure would result in an average of 27.69 HIV infections averted, with an average savings from averted medical costs of US$5 544 408. The number of quality adjusted life years saved averaged 387.61, with a cost per HIV infection averted of US$21 486. This brief behavioral intervention was found to be feasible and cost-saving when targeted to male STD clinic clients at high risk of contracting and transmitting infections, indicating that this strategy should be considered for inclusion in HIV prevention programming.

  1. Control of corruption, democratic accountability, and effectiveness of HIV/AIDS official development assistance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Hwa-Young; Yang, Bong-Ming; Kang, Minah

    2016-01-01

    Despite continued global efforts, HIV/AIDS outcomes in developing countries have not made much progress. Poor governance in recipient countries is often seen as one of the reasons for ineffectiveness of aid efforts to achieve stated objectives and desired outcomes. This study examines the impact of two important dimensions of governance - control of corruption and democratic accountability - on the effectiveness of HIV/AIDS official development assistance. An empirical analysis using dynamic panel Generalized Method of Moments estimation was conducted on 2001-2010 datasets. Control of corruption and democratic accountability revealed an independent effect and interaction with the amount of HIV/AIDS aid on incidence of HIV/AIDS, respectively, while none of the two governance variables had a significant effect on HIV/AIDS prevalence. Specifically, in countries with accountability level below -2.269, aid has a detrimental effect on incidence of HIV/AIDS. The study findings suggest that aid programs need to be preceded or at least accompanied by serious efforts to improve governance in recipient countries and that democratic accountability ought to receive more critical attention.

  2. Reorienting the HIV response in Niger toward sex work interventions: from better evidence to targeted and expanded practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fraser, Nicole; Kerr, Cliff C; Harouna, Zakou; Alhousseini, Zeinabou; Cheikh, Nejma; Gray, Richard; Shattock, Andrew; Wilson, David P; Haacker, Markus; Shubber, Zara; Masaki, Emiko; Karamoko, Djibrilla; Görgens, Marelize

    2015-03-01

    Niger's low-burden, sex-work-driven HIV epidemic is situated in a context of high economic and demographic growth. Resource availability of HIV/AIDS has been decreasing recently. In 2007-2012, only 1% of HIV expenditure was for sex work interventions, but an estimated 37% of HIV incidence was directly linked to sex work in 2012. The Government of Niger requested assistance to determine an efficient allocation of its HIV resources and to strengthen HIV programming for sex workers. Optima, an integrated epidemiologic and optimization tool, was applied using local HIV epidemic, demographic, programmatic, expenditure, and cost data. A mathematical optimization algorithm was used to determine the best resource allocation for minimizing HIV incidence and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) over 10 years. Efficient allocation of the available HIV resources, to minimize incidence and DALYs, would increase expenditure for sex work interventions from 1% to 4%-5%, almost double expenditure for antiretroviral treatment and for the prevention of mother-to-child transmission, and reduce expenditure for HIV programs focusing on the general population. Such an investment could prevent an additional 12% of new infections despite a budget of less than half of the 2012 reference year. Most averted infections would arise from increased funding for sex work interventions. This allocative efficiency analysis makes the case for increased investment in sex work interventions to minimize future HIV incidence and DALYs. Optimal HIV resource allocation combined with improved program implementation could have even greater HIV impact. Technical assistance is being provided to make the money invested in sex work programs work better and help Niger to achieve a cost-effective and sustainable HIV response.

  3. Socioecological factors influencing women's HIV risk in the United States: qualitative findings from the women's HIV SeroIncidence study (HPTN 064).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frew, Paula M; Parker, Kimberly; Vo, Linda; Haley, Danielle; O'Leary, Ann; Diallo, Dazon Dixon; Golin, Carol E; Kuo, Irene; Soto-Torres, Lydia; Wang, Jing; Adimora, Adaora A; Randall, Laura A; Del Rio, Carlos; Hodder, Sally

    2016-08-17

    We sought to understand the multilevel syndemic factors that are concurrently contributing to the HIV epidemic among women living in the US. We specifically examined community, network, dyadic, and individual factors to explain HIV vulnerability within a socioecological framework. We gathered qualitative data (120 interviews and 31 focus groups) from a subset of women ages 18-44 years (N = 2,099) enrolled in the HPTN 064 HIV seroincidence estimation study across 10 US communities. We analyzed data from 4 diverse locations: Atlanta, New York City (the Bronx), Raleigh, and Washington, DC. Data were thematically coded using grounded theory methodology. Intercoder reliability was assessed to evaluate consistency of team-based coding practices. The following themes were identified at 4 levels including 1) exosystem (community): poverty prevalence, discrimination, gender imbalances, community violence, and housing challenges; 2) mesosystem (network): organizational social support and sexual concurrency; 3) microsystem (dyadic): sex exchange, interpersonal social support, intimate partner violence; and 4) individual: HIV/STI awareness, risk taking, and substance use. A strong theme emerged with over 80 % of responses linked to the fundamental role of financial insecurity underlying risk-taking behavioral pathways. Multilevel syndemic factors contribute to women's vulnerability to HIV in the US. Financial insecurity is a predominant theme, suggesting the need for tailored programming for women to reduce HIV risk. Clinicaltrials.gov, NCT00995176.

  4. Estimating the incidence of lung cancer attributable to occupational exposure in Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mousavi-Jarrahi Yasaman

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Objective The aim of this study was to estimate the fraction of lung cancer incidence in Iran attributed to occupational exposures to the well-established lung cancer carcinogens, including silica, cadmium, nickel, arsenic, chromium, diesel fumes, beryllium, and asbestos. Methods Nationwide exposure to each of the mentioned carcinogens was estimated using workforce data from the Iranian population census of 1995, available from the International Labor Organization (ILO website. The prevalence of exposure to carcinogens in each industry was estimated using exposure data from the CAREX (CARcinogen EXposure database, an international occupational carcinogen information system kept and maintained by the European Union. The magnitude of the relative risk of lung cancer for each carcinogen was estimated from local and international literature. Using the Levin modified population attributable risk (incidence fraction, lung cancer incidence (as estimated by the Tehran Population-Based Cancer Registry attributable to workplace exposure to carcinogens was estimated. Results The total workforce in Iran according to the 1995 census identified 12,488,020 men and 677,469 women. Agriculture is the largest sector with 25% of the male and 0.27% of female workforce. After applying the CAREX exposure estimate to each sector, the proportion exposed to lung carcinogens was 0.08% for male workers and 0.02% for female workers. Estimating a relative risk of 1.9 (95% CI of 1.7–2.1 for high exposure and 1.3 (95% CI 1.2–1.4 for low exposure, and employing the Levin modified formula, the fraction of lung cancer attributed to carcinogens in the workplace was 1.5% (95% CI of 1.2–1.9 for females and 12% (95% CI of 10–15 for males. These fractions correspond to an estimated incidence of 1.3 and 0.08 cases of lung cancer per 100,000 population for males and females, respectively. Conclusion The incidence of lung cancer due to occupational exposure is low in

  5. Averting HIV infections in New York City: a modeling approach estimating the future impact of additional behavioral and biomedical HIV prevention strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kessler, Jason; Myers, Julie E; Nucifora, Kimberly A; Mensah, Nana; Kowalski, Alexis; Sweeney, Monica; Toohey, Christopher; Khademi, Amin; Shepard, Colin; Cutler, Blayne; Braithwaite, R Scott

    2013-01-01

    New York City (NYC) remains an epicenter of the HIV epidemic in the United States. Given the variety of evidence-based HIV prevention strategies available and the significant resources required to implement each of them, comparative studies are needed to identify how to maximize the number of HIV cases prevented most economically. A new model of HIV disease transmission was developed integrating information from a previously validated micro-simulation HIV disease progression model. Specification and parameterization of the model and its inputs, including the intervention portfolio, intervention effects and costs were conducted through a collaborative process between the academic modeling team and the NYC Department of Health and Mental Hygiene. The model projects the impact of different prevention strategies, or portfolios of prevention strategies, on the HIV epidemic in NYC. Ten unique interventions were able to provide a prevention benefit at an annual program cost of less than $360,000, the threshold for consideration as a cost-saving intervention (because of offsets by future HIV treatment costs averted). An optimized portfolio of these specific interventions could result in up to a 34% reduction in new HIV infections over the next 20 years. The cost-per-infection averted of the portfolio was estimated to be $106,378; the total cost was in excess of $2 billion (over the 20 year period, or approximately $100 million per year, on average). The cost-savings of prevented infections was estimated at more than $5 billion (or approximately $250 million per year, on average). Optimal implementation of a portfolio of evidence-based interventions can have a substantial, favorable impact on the ongoing HIV epidemic in NYC and provide future cost-saving despite significant initial costs.

  6. Risk Factors Associated with Incident Syphilis in a Cohort of High-Risk Men in Peru

    Science.gov (United States)

    Konda, Kelika A.; Roberts, Chelsea P.; Maguiña, Jorge L.; Leon, Segundo R.; Clark, Jesse L.; Coates, Thomas J.; Caceres, Carlos F.; Klausner, Jeffrey D.

    2016-01-01

    Background Syphilis is concentrated among high-risk groups, but the epidemiology of syphilis reinfection is poorly understood. We characterized factors associated with syphilis incidence, including reinfection, in a high-risk cohort in Peru. Methods Participants in the NIMH CPOL trial were assessed at baseline and 2 annual visits with HIV/STI testing and behavioral surveys. Participants diagnosed with syphilis also attended 4- and 9-month visits. All participants underwent syphilis testing with RPR screening and TPPA confirmation. Antibiotic treatment was provided according to CDC guidelines. Reinfection was defined as a 4-fold titer increase or recurrence of seroreactivity after successful treatment with subsequent negative RPR titers. The longitudinal analysis used a Possion generalized estimating equations model with backward selection of variables in the final model (criteria P <0.02). Results Of 2,709 participants, 191 (7.05%) were RPR-reactive (median 1:8, range 1:1–1:1024) with TPPA confirmation. There were 119 total cases of incident syphilis, which included both reinfection and first-time incident cases. In the bivariate analysis, the oldest 2 quartiles of age (incidence ratio (IR) 3.84; P <0.001 and IR 8.15; P <0.001) and being MSM/TW (IR 6.48; P <0.001) were associated with higher risk of incident syphilis infection. Of the sexual risk behaviors, older age of sexual debut (IR 12.53; P <0.001), not being in a stable partnership (IR 1.56, P = 0.035), higher number of sex partners (IR 3.01; P <0.001), unprotected sex in the past 3 months (IR 0.56; P = 0.003), HIV infection at baseline (IR 3.98; P <0.001) and incident HIV infection during the study period (IR 6.26; P = 0.003) were all associated with incident syphilis. In the multivariable analysis, older age group (adjusted incidence ratio (aIR) 6.18; P <0.001), men reporting having sex with a man (aIR 4.63; P <0.001), and incident HIV infection (aIR 4.48; P = 0.008) were significantly associated

  7. Pre-exposure prophylaxis for HIV-negative persons with partners living with HIV: uptake, use, and effectiveness in an open-label demonstration project in East Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heffron, Renee; Ngure, Kenneth; Odoyo, Josephine; Bulya, Nulu; Tindimwebwa, Edna; Hong, Ting; Kidoguchi, Lara; Donnell, Deborah; Mugo, Nelly R; Bukusi, Elizabeth A; Katabira, Elly; Asiimwe, Stephen; Morton, Jennifer; Morrison, Susan; Haugen, Harald; Mujugira, Andrew; Haberer, Jessica E; Ware, Norma C; Wyatt, Monique A; Marzinke, Mark A; Frenkel, Lisa M; Celum, Connie; Baeten, Jared M

    2017-11-06

    Introduction : Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) can provide high protection against HIV infection and is a recommended intervention for HIV-negative persons with substantial HIV risk, such as individuals with a partner living with HIV.  Demonstration projects of PrEP have been conducted in diverse settings worldwide to illustrate practical examples of how PrEP can be delivered.  Methods : We evaluated delivery of PrEP for HIV-negative partners within heterosexual HIV serodiscordant couples in an open-label demonstration project in East Africa.  The delivery model integrated PrEP into HIV treatment services, prioritizing PrEP for HIV-negative partners within serodiscordant couples prior to and during the first 6 months after the partner living with HIV initiated antiretroviral therapy (ART).  We measured adherence to PrEP through medication event monitoring system (MEMS) bottle caps and quantification of tenofovir in plasma among a random sample of participants. We estimated HIV infections prevented using a counterfactual cohort simulated from the placebo arm of a previous PrEP clinical trial. Results : We enrolled 1,010 HIV serodiscordant couples that were naïve to ART and PrEP.  Ninety-seven percent (97%) of HIV-negative partners initiated PrEP, and when PrEP was dispensed, objective measures suggest high adherence: 71% of HIV-negative participants took ≥80% of expected doses, as recorded via MEMS, and 81% of plasma samples had tenofovir detected.  A total of 4 incident HIV infections were observed (incidence rate=0.24 per 100 person-years), a 95% reduction (95% CI 86-98%, pproject for African HIV-negative individuals whose partners were known to be living with HIV.  Delivery of PrEP to HIV-negative partners within HIV serodiscordant couples was feasible and should be prioritized for wide-scale implementation.

  8. Dual Testing Algorithm of BED-CEIA and AxSYM Avidity Index Assays Performs Best in Identifying Recent HIV Infection in a Sample of Rwandan Sex Workers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Braunstein, Sarah L.; Nash, Denis; Kim, Andrea A.; Ford, Ken; Mwambarangwe, Lambert; Ingabire, Chantal M.; Vyankandondera, Joseph; van de Wijgert, Janneke H. H. M.

    2011-01-01

    To assess the performance of BED-CEIA (BED) and AxSYM Avidity Index (Ax-AI) assays in estimating HIV incidence among female sex workers (FSW) in Kigali, Rwanda. Eight hundred FSW of unknown HIV status were HIV tested; HIV-positive women had BED and Ax-AI testing at baseline and ≥12 months later to

  9. Effect of HSV-2 infection on subsequent HIV acquisition: an updated systematic review and meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Looker, Katharine J; Elmes, Jocelyn A R; Gottlieb, Sami L; Schiffer, Joshua T; Vickerman, Peter; Turner, Katherine M E; Boily, Marie-Claude

    2017-12-01

    HIV and herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) infections cause a substantial global disease burden and are epidemiologically correlated. Two previous systematic reviews of the association between HSV-2 and HIV found evidence that HSV-2 infection increases the risk of HIV acquisition, but these reviews are now more than a decade old. For this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched PubMed, MEDLINE, and Embase (from Jan 1, 2003, to May 25, 2017) to identify studies investigating the risk of HIV acquisition after exposure to HSV-2 infection, either at baseline (prevalent HSV-2 infection) or during follow-up (incident HSV-2 infection). Studies were included if they were a cohort study, controlled trial, or case-control study (including case-control studies nested within a cohort study or clinical trial); if they assessed the effect of pre-existing HSV-2 infection on HIV acquisition; and if they determined the HSV-2 infection status of study participants with a type-specific assay. We calculated pooled random-effect estimates of the association between prevalent or incident HSV-2 infection and HIV seroconversion. We also extended previous investigations through detailed meta-regression and subgroup analyses. In particular, we investigated the effect of sex and risk group (general population vs higher-risk populations) on the relative risk (RR) of HIV acquisition after prevalent or incident HSV-2 infection. Higher-risk populations included female sex workers and their clients, men who have sex with men, serodiscordant couples, and attendees of sexually transmitted infection clinics. We identified 57 longitudinal studies exploring the association between HSV-2 and HIV. HIV acquisition was almost tripled in the presence of prevalent HSV-2 infection among general populations (adjusted RR 2·7, 95% CI 2·2-3·4; number of estimates [N e ]=22) and was roughly doubled among higher-risk populations (1·7, 1·4-2·1; N e =25). Incident HSV-2 infection in general

  10. Risk of cancer among HIV-infected individuals compared to the background population

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Helleberg, Marie; Gerstoft, Jan; Afzal, Shoaib

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The relative impact of immune deficiency and lifestyle-related factors on risk of cancer in the HIV-infected population is controversial. We aimed to estimate the population-attributable fractions (PAFs) associated with smoking, being HIV-infected and with immune deficiency. METHODS...... of cancer associated with smoking and with being HIV-infected were 27 and 49%, respectively. For cancers not strongly related to smoking or viral infections, the PAFs associated with being HIV-infected and with immune deficiency were 0%. CONCLUSION: The risk of cancer is increased in HIV patients compared......: In a Danish, nationwide, population-based cohort study (1995-2011), incidences of cancer were compared between an HIV-infected cohort and a population-based matched cohort in analyses stratified on cancer category, smoking status and for HIV patients: low CD4 cell count. RESULTS: We included 3503 HIV patients...

  11. Incidence of pregnancy following antiretroviral therapy initiation and associated factors in eight West African countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burgos-Soto, Juan; Balestre, Eric; Minga, Albert; Ajayi, Samuel; Sawadogo, Adrien; Zannou, Marcel D.; Leroy, Valériane; Ekouevi, Didier K.; Dabis, François; Becquet, Renaud

    2014-01-01

    Introduction This study aimed at estimating the incidence of pregnancy after antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation in eight West African countries over a 10-year period. Methods A retrospective analysis was conducted within the international database of the IeDEA West Africa Collaboration. All HIV-infected women aged Pregnancy after ART initiation was the main outcome and was based on clinical reporting. Poisson regression analysis accounting for country heterogeneity was computed to estimate first pregnancy incidence post-ART and to identify its associated factors. Pregnancy incidence rate ratios were adjusted on country, baseline CD4 count and clinical stage, haemoglobin, age, first ART regimen and calendar year. Results Overall 29,425 HIV-infected women aged 33 years in median [Inter Quartile Range: 28–38] contributed for 84,870 women-years of follow-up to this analysis. The crude incidence of first pregnancy (2,304 events) was 2.9 per 100 women-years [95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.7–3.0], the highest rate being reported among women aged 25–29 years: 4.7 per 100 women-years; 95% CI: 4.3–5.1. The overall Kaplan-Meier probability of pregnancy occurrence by the fourth year on ART was 10.9% (95% CI: 10.4–11.4) and as high as 28.4% (95% CI: 26.3–30.6) among women aged 20–29 years at ART initiation. Conclusion The rate of pregnancy occurrence after ART initiation among HIV-infected women living in the West Africa region was high. Family planning services tailored to procreation needs should be provided to all HIV-infected women initiating ART and health consequences carefully monitored in this part of the world. PMID:25216079

  12. An epidemiological modelling study to estimate the composition of HIV-positive populations including migrants from endemic settings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakagawa, Fumiyo

    2017-01-28

    Migrants account for a significant number of people living with HIV in Europe, and it is important to fully consider this population in national estimates. Using a novel approach with the UK as an example, we present key public health measures of the HIV epidemic, taking into account both in-country infections and infections likely to have been acquired abroad. Mathematical model calibrated to extensive data sources. An individual-based stochastic simulation model is used to calibrate to routinely collected surveillance data in the UK. Data on number of new HIV diagnoses, number of deaths, CD4 cell count at diagnosis, as well as time of arrival into the UK for migrants and the annual number of people receiving care were used. An estimated 106 400 (90% plausibility range: 88 700-124 600) people were living with HIV in the UK in 2013. Twenty-three percent of these people, 24 600 (15 000-36 200) were estimated to be undiagnosed; this number has remained stable over the last decade. An estimated 32% of the total undiagnosed population had CD4 cell count less than 350 cells/μl in 2013. Twenty-five and 23% of black African men and women heterosexuals living with HIV were undiagnosed respectively. We have shown a working example to characterize the HIV population in a European context which incorporates migrants from countries with generalized epidemics. Despite all aspects of HIV care being free and widely available to anyone in need in the UK, there is still a substantial number of people who are not yet diagnosed and thus not in care.

  13. Pregnancy incidence and risk factors among women participating in vaginal microbicide trials for HIV prevention: systematic review and meta-analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alfred Musekiwa

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: Pregnancy is contraindicated in vaginal microbicide trials for the prevention of HIV infection in women due to the unknown maternal and fetal safety of the microbicides. Women who become pregnant are taken off the microbicide during pregnancy period but this result in reduction of the power of the trials. Strategies to reduce the pregnancy rates require an understanding of the incidence and associated risk factors of pregnancy in microbicide trials. This systematic review estimates the overall incidence rate of pregnancy in microbicide trials and describes the associated risk factors. METHODS: A comprehensive literature search was carried out to identify eligible studies from electronic databases and other sources. Two review authors independently selected studies and extracted relevant data from included studies. Meta-analysis of incidence rates of pregnancy was carried out and risk factors of pregnancy were reported narratively. RESULTS: Fifteen studies reporting data from 10 microbicide trials (N=27,384 participants were included. A total of 4,107 participants (15.0% fell pregnant and a meta-analysis of incidence rates of pregnancy from 8 microbicide trials (N=25,551 yielded an overall incidence rate of 23.37 (95%CI: 17.78 to 28.96 pregnancies per 100 woman-years. However, significant heterogeneity was detected. Hormonal injectable, intra-uterine device (IUD or implants or sterilization, older age, more years of education and condom use were associated with lower pregnancy. On the other hand, living with a man, history of pregnancy, self and partner desire for future baby, oral contraceptive use, increased number of unprotected sexual acts and inconsistent use of condoms were associated with higher pregnancy. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence rate of pregnancy in microbicide trials is high and strategies for its reduction are urgently required in order to improve the sample size and power of these trials.

  14. Estimating the impact of state budget cuts and redirection of prevention resources on the HIV epidemic in 59 California local health departments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Feng; Lasry, Arielle; Sansom, Stephanie L; Wolitski, Richard J

    2013-01-01

    In the wake of a national economic downturn, the state of California, in 2009-2010, implemented budget cuts that eliminated state funding of HIV prevention and testing. To mitigate the effect of these cuts remaining federal funds were redirected. This analysis estimates the impact of these budget cuts and reallocation of resources on HIV transmission and associated HIV treatment costs. We estimated the effect of the budget cuts and reallocation for California county health departments (excluding Los Angeles and San Francisco) on the number of individuals living with or at-risk for HIV who received HIV prevention services. We used a Bernoulli model to estimate the number of new infections that would occur each year as a result of the changes, and assigned lifetime treatment costs to those new infections. We explored the effect of redirecting federal funds to more cost-effective programs, as well as the potential effect of allocating funds proportionately by transmission category. We estimated that cutting HIV prevention resulted in 55 new infections that were associated with $20 million in lifetime treatment costs. The redirection of federal funds to more cost-effective programs averted 15 HIV infections. If HIV prevention funding were allocated proportionately to transmission categories, we estimated that HIV infections could be reduced below the number that occurred annually before the state budget cuts. Reducing funding for HIV prevention may result in short-term savings at the expense of additional HIV infections and increased HIV treatment costs. Existing HIV prevention funds would likely have a greater impact on the epidemic if they were allocated to the more cost-effective programs and the populations most likely to acquire and transmit the infection.

  15. Estimated Incident Cost Savings in Shipping Due to Inspections

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S. Knapp (Sabine); G.E. Bijwaard (Govert); C. Heij (Christiaan)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractThe effectiveness of safety inspections has been analysed from various angles, but until now, relatively little attention has been given to translate risk reduction into incident cost savings. This paper quantifies estimated cost savings based on port state control inspections and

  16. Incidence of multiple Herpesvirus infection in HIV seropositive patients, a big concern for Eastern Indian scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guha Shubhasish K

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV infection is associated with an increased risk for human herpes viruses (HHVs and their related diseases and they frequently cause disease deterioration and therapeutic failures. Methods for limiting the transmission of HHVs require a better understanding of the incidence and infectivity of oral HHVs in HIV-infected patients. This study was designed to determine the seroprevalence of human herpes viruses (CMV, HSV 2, EBV-1, VZV antibodies and to evaluate their association with age, sex as well as other demographic and behavioral factors. Results A study of 200 HIV positive patients from Eastern India attending the Calcutta Medical College Hospital, Kolkata, West Bengal, Apex Clinic, Calcutta Medical College Hospital and ART Center, School of Tropical Medicine, Kolkata, West Bengal was done. Serum samples were screened for antibodies to the respective viruses using the indirect ELISA in triplicates. CytoMegalo virus (CMV, Herpes Simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2, Varicella Zoster virus (VZV, and Epstein Barr virus (EBV-1 were detected in 49%, 47%, 32.5%, and 26% respectively. Conclusion This study has contributed baseline data and provided insights in viral OI and HIV co-infection in Eastern India. This would undoubtedly serve as a basis for further studies on this topic.

  17. HIV incidence, risk factors, and motivation for biomedical intervention among gay, bisexual men, and transgender persons in Northern Thailand.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suwat Chariyalertsak

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: HIV prevalence among men who have sex with men (MSM and transgender (TG persons is high and increasing in Chiang Mai, northern Thailand. OBJECTIVES: To describe demographic, socioeconomic, sexual behavior and interest in future HIV prevention trials among gay and bisexual MSM and TG presenting for HIV testing (VCT and pre-screening for the iPrEx pre-exposure chemoprophylaxis trail. METHODS: In 2008-09, MSM/TG participants attending VCT were interviewed and tested for HIV and STI. Univariate and multivariate regression analyses were done to assess associations with HIV infection. RESULTS: A total of 551 MSM clients (56.1% gay, 25.4% TG, and 18.5% bisexual (BS were enrolled. The mean age was 23.9 years. HIV prevalence among MSM overall was 12.9% (71/551; 16.5% among gay men, 9.3% among TG, and 6.9% among BS. Consistent use of condom was low, 33.3% in insertive anal sex and 31.9% in receptive anal sex. Interest in participation was high, 86.3% for PrEP, 69.7% for HIV vaccine trials, but 29.9% for circumcision. HIV was independently associated with being gay identified, aOR 2.8, p = 0.037 and with being aged 25-29, aOR 2.7, p = 0.027. Among repeat testers, HIV incidence was 8.2/100 PY, 95% CI, 3.7/100PY to 18.3/100PY. CONCLUSION: HIV risks and rates varied by self-reported sexual orientation and gender identity. HIV was associated with sexual practices, age, and being gay-identified. These are populations are in need of novel prevention strategies and willing to participate in prevention research.

  18. Incidence of Candida spp. mucosal oral patients infected by Human Immunodeficiency (HIV in Santo Angelo-RS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreia Hartmann

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Background and Objectives: Currently, there is an increase in fungal infections, especially in immune compromised patients. Among the fungi that cause invasive infections there is the yeast of the genus Candida, considered HIV progression marker. Antifungal therapy and diagnosis are important for the treatment of oral candidiasis, due to the resistance attributed to certain species. Thus, the aim this study was to determine the incidence of oral candidiasis in patients with the HIV virus, to define the species, the virulence factors and sensitivity to fluconazole. Methods: Researched to colonization of the oral mucosa of HIV-positive patients with the aid of a sterile swab and culture in Sabouraud Dextrose Agar. The activity of proteinase and phospholipase were done. Susceptibility testing was performed by disk diffusion method. A record filled with socio-economic data, and clinical information regarding medications and symptomatology of patients. Results: The sample was consisted of 45 people. The average age of patients was 38 years (± 13.63. The rate of oral colonization by Candida in HIV patients was 53.3%, of these, 95.83% owned by albicans species. The isolates showed positive activity and strongly positive for phospholipase and proteinase. In the susceptibility test showed 25% of the isolates were resistant to fluconazole. Conclusion: Early diagnosis of candidiasis in HIV-infected patients is essential both for the immediate treatment, and to improve their quality of life, since the thrush is a very common oral lesions in this population.

  19. Estimating the incidence of breast cancer in Africa: a systematic review and meta-analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adeloye, Davies; Sowunmi, Olaperi Y.; Jacobs, Wura; David, Rotimi A; Adeosun, Adeyemi A; Amuta, Ann O.; Misra, Sanjay; Gadanya, Muktar; Auta, Asa; Harhay, Michael O; Chan, Kit Yee

    2018-01-01

    Background Breast cancer is estimated to be the most common cancer worldwide. We sought to assemble publicly available data from Africa to provide estimates of the incidence of breast cancer on the continent. Methods A systematic search of Medline, EMBASE, Global Health and African Journals Online (AJOL) was conducted. We included population- or hospital-based registry studies on breast cancer conducted in Africa, and providing estimates of the crude incidence of breast cancer among women. A random effects meta-analysis was employed to determine the pooled incidence of breast cancer across studies. Results The literature search returned 4648 records, with 41 studies conducted across 54 study sites in 22 African countries selected. We observed important variations in reported cancer incidence between population- and hospital-based cancer registries. The overall pooled crude incidence of breast cancer from population-based registries was 24.5 per 100 000 person years (95% confidence interval (CI) 20.1-28.9). The incidence in North Africa was higher at 29.3 per 100 000 (95% CI 20.0-38.7) than Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) at 22.4 per 100 000 (95% CI 17.2-28.0). In hospital-based registries, the overall pooled crude incidence rate was estimated at 23.6 per 100 000 (95% CI 18.5-28.7). SSA and Northern Africa had relatively comparable rates at 24.0 per 100 000 (95% CI 17.5-30.4) and 23.2 per 100 000 (95% CI 6.6-39.7), respectively. Across both registries, incidence rates increased considerably between 2000 and 2015. Conclusions The available evidence suggests a growing incidence of breast cancer in Africa. The representativeness of these estimates is uncertain due to the paucity of data in several countries and calendar years, as well as inconsistency in data collation and quality across existing cancer registries. PMID:29740502

  20. Correlation between HIV and HCV in Brazilian prisoners: evidence for parenteral transmission inside prison Correlação entre HIV e HCV em prisioneiros brasileiros: evidência de transmissão parenteral no encarceramento

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    MN Burattini

    2000-10-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: It is an accepted fact that confinement conditions increase the risk of some infections related to sexual and/or injecting drugs practices. Mathematical techniques were applied to estimate time-dependent incidence densities of HIV infection among inmates. METHODS: A total of 631 prisoners from a Brazilian prison with 4,900 inmates at that time were interviewed and their blood drawn. Risky behavior for HIV infection was analyzed, and serological tests for HIV, hepatitis C and syphilis were performed, intended as surrogates for parenteral and sexual HIV transmission, respectively. Mathematical techniques were used to estimate the incidence density ratio, as related to the time of imprisonment. RESULTS: Prevalence were: HIV -- 16%; HCV -- 34%; and syphilis -- 18%. The main risk behaviors related to HIV infection were HCV prevalence (OR=10.49 and the acknowledged use of injecting drugs (OR=3.36. Incidence density ratio derivation showed that the risk of acquiring HIV infection increases with the time of imprisonment, peaking around three years after incarceration. CONCLUSIONS: The correlation between HIV and HCV seroprevalence and the results of the mathematical analysis suggest that HIV transmission in this population is predominantly due to parenteral exposure by injecting drug, and that it increases with time of imprisonment.OBJETIVO: É um fato correntemente aceito que as condições de confinamento aumentam o risco de algumas infecções relacionadas às práticas sexuais e/ou ao uso de drogas injetáveis. Realizou-se estudo para estimar a densidade de incidência da infecção pelo HIV na população prisional com aplicação de técnicas matemáticas. MÉTODOS: Foram entrevistados em São Paulo, SP, 631 prisioneiros da maior prisão da América do Sul, que abrigava aproximadamente 4.900 presos na ocasião do estudo. Foi colhido sangue da população entrevistada, analisado o risco para a infecção pelo HIV e realizados testes

  1. Size estimation, HIV prevalence and risk behaviours of female sex workers in Pakistan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Altaf, A.; Aga, A.; McKinizie, M.H.; Abbas, Q.; Jafri, S.B.

    2012-01-01

    Objective: To provide size estimation and to determine risky behaviours and HIV prevalence among female sex workers in Pakistan, which has progressed from a low to concentrated level of HIV epidemic. Methods: A cross-sectional study (geographic mapping and integrated behavioural and biological survey-IBBS) was conducted between August 2005 to January 2006 in Karachi, Hyderabad and Sukkur. A detailed questionnaire and dry blood spot (DBS) specimen for HIV testing were collected by trained interviewers after informed consent. The study was ethically approved by review boards in Canada and Pakistan. Results: About 14,900 female sex workers were estimated to be functional in Sindh. A total of 1158 of them were interviewed for the study. Average age of sex workers was 27.4+- 6.7 years, and the majority 787 (67.9%) were married, and uneducated 764 (65.9%). Sindhi (26.4%) was the predominant ethnicity. Mean number of paid clients was 2.1+-1.2. Three workers were confirmed HIV positive (0.75%, 95 percent CI 0.2-2.2%) from Karachi. Condom use at last sexual act was highest (68%) among brothel-based workers from Karachi, and the lowest in Sukkur where only 1.3% street-based workers reported using a condom at last sexual act. Overall use of illicit drugs through injections was negligible. Conclusion: HIV prevalence among female sex workers in Sindh, Pakistan is low but risky behaviours are present. Well organised service delivery programmes can help promoting safer practices. (author)

  2. Control of corruption, democratic accountability, and effectiveness of HIV/AIDS official development assistance

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    Hwa-Young Lee

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Background: Despite continued global efforts, HIV/AIDS outcomes in developing countries have not made much progress. Poor governance in recipient countries is often seen as one of the reasons for ineffectiveness of aid efforts to achieve stated objectives and desired outcomes. Objective: This study examines the impact of two important dimensions of governance – control of corruption and democratic accountability – on the effectiveness of HIV/AIDS official development assistance. Design: An empirical analysis using dynamic panel Generalized Method of Moments estimation was conducted on 2001–2010 datasets. Results: Control of corruption and democratic accountability revealed an independent effect and interaction with the amount of HIV/AIDS aid on incidence of HIV/AIDS, respectively, while none of the two governance variables had a significant effect on HIV/AIDS prevalence. Specifically, in countries with accountability level below −2.269, aid has a detrimental effect on incidence of HIV/AIDS. Conclusion: The study findings suggest that aid programs need to be preceded or at least accompanied by serious efforts to improve governance in recipient countries and that democratic accountability ought to receive more critical attention.

  3. Prevalence of HIV among MSM in Europe: comparison of self-reported diagnoses from a large scale internet survey and existing national estimates

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    Marcus Ulrich

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Country level comparisons of HIV prevalence among men having sex with men (MSM is challenging for a variety of reasons, including differences in the definition and measurement of the denominator group, recruitment strategies and the HIV detection methods. To assess their comparability, self-reported data on HIV diagnoses in a 2010 pan-European MSM internet survey (EMIS were compared with pre-existing estimates of HIV prevalence in MSM from a variety of European countries. Methods The first pan-European survey of MSM recruited more than 180,000 men from 38 countries across Europe and included questions on the year and result of last HIV test. HIV prevalence as measured in EMIS was compared with national estimates of HIV prevalence based on studies using biological measurements or modelling approaches to explore the degree of agreement between different methods. Existing estimates were taken from Dublin Declaration Monitoring Reports or UNAIDS country fact sheets, and were verified by contacting the nominated contact points for HIV surveillance in EU/EEA countries. Results The EMIS self-reported measurements of HIV prevalence were strongly correlated with existing estimates based on biological measurement and modelling studies using surveillance data (R2=0.70 resp. 0.72. In most countries HIV positive MSM appeared disproportionately likely to participate in EMIS, and prevalences as measured in EMIS are approximately twice the estimates based on existing estimates. Conclusions Comparison of diagnosed HIV prevalence as measured in EMIS with pre-existing estimates based on biological measurements using varied sampling frames (e.g. Respondent Driven Sampling, Time and Location Sampling demonstrates a high correlation and suggests similar selection biases from both types of studies. For comparison with modelled estimates the self-selection bias of the Internet survey with increased participation of men diagnosed with HIV has to be

  4. Incidence of sexually transmitted infections during pregnancy.

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    Chloe A Teasdale

    Full Text Available Prevalence of sexually transmitted infections (STI is high among pregnant women in certain settings. We estimated STI incidence and compared STI risk in pregnant and non-pregnant women. Data came from the Methods for Improving Reproductive Health in Africa (MIRA study conducted in South Africa and Zimbabwe 2003-2006. Women aged 18-50 years with at least one follow-up visit within 6 months of enrollment were included. Follow-up visits included laboratory testing for pregnancy, chlamydia, gonorrhea, trichomoniasis, and HIV, as well as self-report of hormonal contraceptive (HC use, sexual behaviors and intravaginal practices. All visits were classified according to pregnancy status. Incidence of each STI was calculated using follow-up time. Cox proportional hazards models were fitted using pregnancy as a time-varying exposure and sexual behaviors and intravaginal practices as time-varying covariates. Among 4,549 women, 766 (16.8% had a positive pregnancy test. Median follow-up time was 18 months [IQR: 12-24]. The overall incidence rate of chlamydia was 6.7 per 100 person years (py and 9.9/100py during pregnancy; gonorrhea incidence was 2.7/100py and 4.9/100py during pregnancy; trichomoniasis incidence was 7.1/100py overall and 9.2/100py during pregnancy. Overall HIV incidence was 3.9/100py and 3.8/100py during pregnancy. In crude models, pregnancy increased risk for chlamydia (hazard ratio (HR 1.5, 95%CI: 1.1-1.2, however there was no increased risk of any measured STI in adjusted models. STI Incidence was high during pregnancy however pregnancy did not increase STI risk after adjustment for sexual behaviors. Greater efforts are needed to help pregnant women avoid STIs.

  5. Pre-exposure prophylaxis for HIV-1 prevention does not diminish the pregnancy prevention effectiveness of hormonal contraception.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murnane, Pamela M; Heffron, Renee; Ronald, Allan; Bukusi, Elizabeth A; Donnell, Deborah; Mugo, Nelly R; Were, Edwin; Mujugira, Andrew; Kiarie, James; Celum, Connie; Baeten, Jared M

    2014-07-31

    For women at risk of HIV-1, effective contraception and effective HIV-1 prevention are global priorities. In a clinical trial of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for HIV-1 prevention in HIV-1-serodiscordant couples, we estimated the effectiveness of hormonal contraceptives (oral contraceptive pills, injectable depot medroxyprogesterone acetate, and hormonal implants) for pregnancy prevention relative to no contraception among 1785 HIV-1-uninfected women followed up to 36 months. We compared the effectiveness of each method among women assigned PrEP versus placebo. Contraception was not required for participation, but was offered on-site and was recorded monthly; incident pregnancy was determined by monthly urine testing. For women using no contraception, overall pregnancy incidence was 15.4% per year. Women reporting oral contraceptive use had comparable pregnancy incidence to women using no contraception, and this lack of contraceptive effectiveness was similar for those assigned PrEP and placebo (17.7 and 10.0% incidence per year, respectively; P-value for difference in effect by PrEP use = 0.24). Women reporting injectable contraception had reduced pregnancy incidence compared to those reporting no contraception, which did not differ by arm (PrEP 5.1%, placebo 5.3% per year; P-value for difference = 0.47). Contraceptive effectiveness was highest among women using implants (pregnancy incidence <1% per year in both arms). PrEP had no adverse impact on hormonal contraceptive effectiveness for pregnancy prevention. As seen previously in similar populations, women reporting contraceptive pill use had little protection from pregnancy, possibly due to poor adherence. Injectable or implantable hormonal contraception and PrEP provide effective prevention for pregnancy and HIV-1.

  6. Worldwide incidence of malaria in 2009: estimates, time trends, and a critique of methods.

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    Richard E Cibulskis

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Measuring progress towards Millennium Development Goal 6, including estimates of, and time trends in, the number of malaria cases, has relied on risk maps constructed from surveys of parasite prevalence, and on routine case reports compiled by health ministries. Here we present a critique of both methods, illustrated with national incidence estimates for 2009. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We compiled information on the number of cases reported by National Malaria Control Programs in 99 countries with ongoing malaria transmission. For 71 countries we estimated the total incidence of Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax by adjusting the number of reported cases using data on reporting completeness, the proportion of suspects that are parasite-positive, the proportion of confirmed cases due to each Plasmodium species, and the extent to which patients use public sector health facilities. All four factors varied markedly among countries and regions. For 28 African countries with less reliable routine surveillance data, we estimated the number of cases from model-based methods that link measures of malaria transmission with case incidence. In 2009, 98% of cases were due to P. falciparum in Africa and 65% in other regions. There were an estimated 225 million malaria cases (5th-95th centiles, 146-316 million worldwide, 176 (110-248 million in the African region, and 49 (36-68 million elsewhere. Our estimates are lower than other published figures, especially survey-based estimates for non-African countries. CONCLUSIONS: Estimates of malaria incidence derived from routine surveillance data were typically lower than those derived from surveys of parasite prevalence. Carefully interpreted surveillance data can be used to monitor malaria trends in response to control efforts, and to highlight areas where malaria programs and health information systems need to be strengthened. As malaria incidence declines around the world, evaluation of control efforts

  7. Optimal investment in a portfolio of HIV prevention programs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaric, G S; Brandeau, M L

    2001-01-01

    In this article, the authors determine the optimal allocation of HIV prevention funds and investigate the impact of different allocation methods on health outcomes. The authors present a resource allocation model that can be used to determine the allocation of HIV prevention funds that maximizes quality-adjusted life years (or life years) gained or HIV infections averted in a population over a specified time horizon. They apply the model to determine the allocation of a limited budget among 3 types of HIV prevention programs in a population of injection drug users and nonusers: needle exchange programs, methadone maintenance treatment, and condom availability programs. For each prevention program, the authors estimate a production function that relates the amount invested to the associated change in risky behavior. The authors determine the optimal allocation of funds for both objective functions for a high-prevalence population and a low-prevalence population. They also consider the allocation of funds under several common rules of thumb that are used to allocate HIV prevention resources. It is shown that simpler allocation methods (e.g., allocation based on HIV incidence or notions of equity among population groups) may lead to alloctions that do not yield the maximum health benefit. The optimal allocation of HIV prevention funds in a population depends on HIV prevalence and incidence, the objective function, the production functions for the prevention programs, and other factors. Consideration of cost, equity, and social and political norms may be important when allocating HIV prevention funds. The model presented in this article can help decision makers determine the health consequences of different allocations of funds.

  8. HIV avidity index performance using a modified fourth-generation immunoassay to detect recent HIV infections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suligoi, Barbara; Regine, Vincenza; Raimondo, Mariangela; Rodella, Anna; Terlenghi, Luigina; Caruso, Arnaldo; Bagnarelli, Patrizia; Capobianchi, Maria Rosaria; Zanchetta, Nadia; Ghisetti, Valeria; Galli, Claudio

    2017-10-26

    Detecting recent HIV infections is important to evaluate incidence and monitor epidemic trends. We aimed to evaluate the diagnostic performance and accuracy of the avidity index (AI) for discriminating for recent HIV infections. We collected serum samples from HIV-1 positive individuals: A) with known date of infection (midpoint in time between last HIV-negative and first HIV-positive test); B) infected for >1 year. Samples were divided into two aliquots: one diluted with phosphate buffered saline (PBS) and the other with 1 M guanidine. Both aliquots were assayed by the Architect HIV Ag/Ab Combo 4th generation assay (Abbott). We compared AI found in recent (RI=HIV subtype had no impact on AI misclassifications. All individuals in group A reached the AI threshold of 0.80 within 24 months after seroconversion. The AI is an accurate serological marker for discriminating recent from established HIV infections and meets WHO requirements for HIV incidence assays.

  9. Tuberculosis among people living with HIV/AIDS in the German ClinSurv HIV Cohort: long-term incidence and risk factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karo, Basel; Haas, Walter; Kollan, Christian; Gunsenheimer-Bartmeyer, Barbara; Hamouda, Osamah; Fiebig, Lena

    2014-03-19

    Tuberculosis (TB) still presents a leading cause of morbidity and mortality among people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA), including those on antiretroviral therapy. In this study, we aimed to determine the long-term incidence density rate (IDR) of TB and risk factors among PLWHA in relation to combination antiretroviral therapy (cART)-status. Data of PLWHA enrolled from 2001 through 2011 in the German ClinSurv HIV Cohort were investigated using survival analysis and Cox regression. TB was diagnosed in 233/11,693 PLWHA either at enrollment (N = 62) or during follow-up (N = 171). The TB IDR during follow-up was 0.37 cases per 100 person-years (PY) overall [95% CI, 0.32-0.43], and was higher among patients who never started cART and among patients originating from Sub-Saharan Africa (1.23 and 1.20 per 100PY, respectively). In two multivariable analyses, both patients (I) who never started cART and (II) those on cART shared the same risk factors for TB, namely: originating from Sub-Saharan Africa compared to Germany (I, hazard ratio (HR); [95% CI]) 4.05; [1.87-8.78] and II, HR 5.15 [2.76-9.60], CD4+ cell count 5 log10 copies/ml (I, HR 2.51 [1.33-4.75] and II, HR 1.77 [1.11-2.82]). Gender, age or HIV-transmission risk group were not independently associated with TB. In the German ClinSurv HIV cohort, patients originating from Sub-Saharan Africa, with low CD4+ cell count or high viral load at enrollment were at increased risk of TB even after cART initiation. As patients might be latently infected with Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex, early screening for latent TB infection and implementing isoniazid preventive therapy in line with available recommendations is crucial.

  10. Incidence of chemotherapy-induced neutropenia in HIV-infected and uninfected patients with breast cancer receiving neoadjuvant chemotherapy

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    Sithembile Ngidi

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Background. Chemotherapy-induced neutropenia (CIN can result in poor tolerance of chemotherapy, leading to dose reductions, delays in therapy schedules, morbidity and mortality. Actively identifying predisposing risk factors before treatment is of paramount importance. We hypothesised that chemotherapy is associated with a greater increase in CIN and its complications in HIV-infected patients than in those who are not infected. Objective. To establish the incidence of CIN in HIV-infected and uninfected patients undergoing chemotherapy. Methods. A retrospective chart review and analysis was conducted in the oncology departments at Inkosi Albert Luthuli Central Hospital and Addington Hospital, Durban, South Africa. The study population consisted of 65 previously untreated women of all ages with stage II - IV breast cancer and known HIV status treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy from January 2012 to December 2015. Results. HIV-infected patients formed 32.3% of the group, and 95.2% of them were on antiretroviral therapy. The mean age (standard deviation (SD of the cohort was 48.5 (13.2 years (40.6 (9.6 years for the HIV-infected group v. 52.0 (13.1 years for the uninfected group; p<0.001. Ninety-five neutropenia episodes were observed (rate 0.85 per 1 year of follow-up time. Following multivariate adjustment, patients with HIV infection were almost two times more likely to develop CIN (hazard ratio (HR 1.76, 95% confidence interval (CI 1.06 - 2.92; p=0.029. A high baseline absolute neutrophil count (ANC (HR 0.80, 95% CI 0.68 - 0.95; p=0.005 remained significantly associated with protection against CIN. Conclusions. HIV-infected patients were younger than those who were not infected, and presented at a more locally advanced stage of disease. HIV infection was an independent predictor for CIN. HIV-infected patients had an almost two-fold increased risk of developing CIN and developed neutropenia at a much faster rate. A high baseline white cell

  11. Incidence and risk factors for relapses in HIV-associated non-Hodgkin lymphoma as observed in the German HIV-related lymphoma cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schommers, Philipp; Gillor, Daniel; Hentrich, Marcus; Wyen, Christoph; Wolf, Timo; Oette, Mark; Zoufaly, Alexander; Wasmuth, Jan-Christian; Bogner, Johannes R; Müller, Markus; Esser, Stefan; Schleicher, Alisa; Jensen, Björn; Stoehr, Albrecht; Behrens, Georg; Schultze, Alexander; Siehl, Jan; Thoden, Jan; Taylor, Ninon; Hoffmann, Christian

    2018-05-01

    Outcome of HIV-infected patients with AIDS-related lymphomas has improved during recent years. However, data on incidence, risk factors, and outcome of relapses in AIDS-related lymphomas after achieving complete remission are still limited. This prospective observational multicenter study includes HIV-infected patients with biopsy- or cytology-proven malignant lymphomas since 2005. Data on HIV infection and lymphoma characteristics, treatment and outcome were recorded. For this analysis, AIDS-related lymphomas patients in complete remission were analyzed in terms of their relapse- free survival and potential risk factors for relapses. In total, 254 of 399 (63.7%) patients with AIDS-related lymphomas reached a complete remission with their first-line chemotherapy. After a median follow up of 4.6 years, 5-year overall survival of the 254 patients was 87.8% (Standard Error 3.1%). Twenty-nine patients relapsed (11.4%). Several factors were independently associated with a higher relapse rate, including an unclassifiable histology, a stage III or IV according to the Ann Arbor Staging System, no concomitant combined antiretroviral therapy during chemotherapy and R-CHOP-based compared to more intensive chemotherapy regimens in Burkitt lymphomas. In conclusion, complete remission and relapse rates observed in our study are similar to those reported in HIV-negative non-Hodgkin lymphomas. These data provide further evidence for the use of concomitant combined antiretroviral therapy during chemotherapy and a benefit from more intensive chemotherapy regimens in Burkitt lymphomas. Modifications to the chemotherapy regimen appear to have only a limited impact on relapse rate. Copyright © 2018 Ferrata Storti Foundation.

  12. Community study of the relative impact of HIV-1 and HIV-2 on intrathoracic tuberculosis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Seng, R; Gustafson, P; Gomes, VF

    2002-01-01

    BACKGROUND: HIV-1 infection is associated with an increased incidence of and mortality from tuberculosis. Few community studies have examined the effect of HIV-2 on tuberculosis. METHODS: We investigated the association between HIV-1, HIV-2 and active tuberculosis in four districts (population 42...

  13. Clostridium difficile infection among hospitalized HIV-infected individuals : epidemiology and risk factors: results from a case-control study (2002-2013)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Di Bella, Stefano; Friedrich, Alexander W.; Garcia-Almodovar, Esther; Gallone, Maria Serena; Taglietti, Fabrizio; Topino, Simone; Galati, Vincenzo; Johnson, Emma; D'Arezzo, Silvia; Petrosillo, Nicola

    2015-01-01

    Background: HIV infection is a risk factor for Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) yet the immune deficiency predisposing to CDI is not well understood, despite an increasing incidence of CDI among such individuals. We aimed to estimate the incidence and to evaluate the risk factors of CDI among

  14. Immunological non-response and low hemoglobin levels are predictors of incident tuberculosis among HIV-infected individuals on Truvada-based therapy in Botswana.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lucy Mupfumi

    Full Text Available There is a high burden of tuberculosis (TB in HIV antiretroviral programmes in Africa. However, few studies have looked at predictors of incident TB while on Truvada-based combination antiretroviral therapy (cART regimens.We estimated TB incidence among individuals enrolled into an observational cohort evaluating the efficacy and tolerability of Truvada-based cART in Gaborone, Botswana between 2008 and 2011. We used Cox proportional hazards regressions to determine predictors of incident TB.Of 300 participants enrolled, 45 (15% had a diagnosis of TB at baseline. During 428 person-years (py of follow-up, the incidence rate of TB was 3.04/100py (95% CI, 1.69-5.06, with 60% of the cases occurring within 3 months of ART initiation. Incident cases had low baseline CD4+ T cell counts (153cells/mm3 [Q1, Q3: 82, 242]; p = 0.69 and hemoglobin levels (9.2g/dl [Q1, Q3: 8.5,10.1]; p<0.01. In univariate analysis, low BMI (HR = 0.73; 95% CI 0.58-0.91; p = 0.01 and hemoglobin levels <8 g/dl (HR = 10.84; 95%CI: 2.99-40.06; p<0.01 were risk factors for TB. Time to incident TB diagnosis was significantly reduced in patients with poor immunological recovery (p = 0.04. There was no association between baseline viral load and risk of TB (HR = 1.75; 95%CI: 0.70-4.37.Low hemoglobin levels prior to initiation of ART are significant predictors of incident tuberculosis. Therefore, there is potential utility of iron biomarkers to identify patients at risk of TB prior to initiation on ART. Furthermore, additional strategies are required for patients with poor immunological recovery to reduce excess risk of TB while on ART.

  15. Care of children with HIV infection and AIDS in Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marum, L H; Tindyebwa, D; Gibb, D

    1997-01-01

    HIV/AIDS is a major cause of pediatric morbidity and mortality, especially in Africa. The UN Joint Program on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) estimates that 85% of the 2.6 million children with HIV infection are from sub-Saharan Africa. About 650,000 children are living with HIV/AIDS and approximately 1000 infected infants are born every day in Africa. Since few of the 7 million infected African women have access to HIV testing and counseling, not to mention interventions such as AZT to reduce the risk of HIV transmission to their infants, the high incidence of HIV-infected children in Africa will likely continue for some time. The countries of east and southern Africa and several countries in west Africa have the highest HIV prevalence rates in the world. The development of cost-effective strategies to provide care and improve the quality of life of HIV-infected infants and children in Africa should be a priority area for increased research and support. The authors describe progress in understanding the natural history of HIV infection in African children, review strategies for managing HIV-infected children in resource-poor settings, and discuss issues of community response and counseling for children.

  16. Migration and risk of HIV acquisition in Rakai, Uganda: a population-based cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olawore, Oluwasolape; Tobian, Aaron A R; Kagaayi, Joseph; Bazaale, Jeremiah M; Nantume, Betty; Kigozi, Grace; Nankinga, Justine; Nalugoda, Fred; Nakigozi, Gertrude; Kigozi, Godfrey; Gray, Ronald H; Wawer, Maria J; Ssekubugu, Robert; Santelli, John S; Reynolds, Steven J; Chang, Larry W; Serwadda, David; Grabowski, Mary K

    2018-04-01

    In sub-Saharan Africa, migrants typically have higher HIV prevalence than non-migrants; however, whether HIV acquisition typically precedes or follows migration is unknown. We aimed to investigate the risk of HIV after migration in Rakai District, Uganda. In a prospective population-based cohort of HIV-negative participants aged 15-49 years in Rakai, Uganda, between April 6, 1999, and Jan 30, 2015, we assessed the association between migration and HIV acquisition. Individuals were classified as recent in-migrants (≤2 years in community), non-recent in-migrants (>2 years in community), or permanent residents with no migration history. The primary outcome was incident HIV infection. We used Poisson regression to estimate incidence rate ratios (IRRs) of HIV associated with residence status with adjustment for demographics, sexual behaviours, and time. Data were also stratified and analysed within three periods (1999-2004, 2005-11, and 2011-15) in relation to the introduction of combination HIV prevention (CHP; pre-CHP, early CHP, and late CHP). Among 26 995 HIV-negative people who participated in the Rakai Community Cohort Study survey, 15 187 (56%) contributed one or more follow-up visits (89 292 person-years of follow-up) and were included in our final analysis. 4451 (29%) were ever in-migrants and 10 736 (71%) were permanent residents. 841 incident HIV events occurred, including 243 (29%) among in-migrants. HIV incidence per 100 person-years was significantly increased among recent in-migrants compared with permanent residents, for both women (1·92, 95% CI 1·52-2·43 vs 0·93, 0·84-1·04; IRR adjusted for demographics 1·75, 95% CI 1·33-2·33) and men (1·52, 0·99-2·33 vs 0·84, 0·74-0·94; 1·74, 1·12-2·71), but not among non-recent in-migrants (IRR adjusted for demographics 0·94, 95% CI 0·74-1·19 for women and 1·28, 0·94-1·74 for men). Between the pre-CHP and late-CHP periods, HIV incidence declined among permanent resident men (p

  17. Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria during 1990-2013

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Murray, Christopher J L; Ortblad, Katrina F; Guinovart, Caterina

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The Millennium Declaration in 2000 brought special global attention to HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria through the formulation of Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 6. The Global Burden of Disease 2013 study provides a consistent and comprehensive approach to disease estimation for betw...

  18. Assessing the external validity of model-based estimates of the incidence of heart attack in England: a modelling study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Scarborough

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The DisMod II model is designed to estimate epidemiological parameters on diseases where measured data are incomplete and has been used to provide estimates of disease incidence for the Global Burden of Disease study. We assessed the external validity of the DisMod II model by comparing modelled estimates of the incidence of first acute myocardial infarction (AMI in England in 2010 with estimates derived from a linked dataset of hospital records and death certificates. Methods Inputs for DisMod II were prevalence rates of ever having had an AMI taken from a population health survey, total mortality rates and AMI mortality rates taken from death certificates. By definition, remission rates were zero. We estimated first AMI incidence in an external dataset from England in 2010 using a linked dataset including all hospital admissions and death certificates since 1998. 95 % confidence intervals were derived around estimates from the external dataset and DisMod II estimates based on sampling variance and reported uncertainty in prevalence estimates respectively. Results Estimates of the incidence rate for the whole population were higher in the DisMod II results than the external dataset (+54 % for men and +26 % for women. Age-specific results showed that the DisMod II results over-estimated incidence for all but the oldest age groups. Confidence intervals for the DisMod II and external dataset estimates did not overlap for most age groups. Conclusion By comparison with AMI incidence rates in England, DisMod II did not achieve external validity for age-specific incidence rates, but did provide global estimates of incidence that are of similar magnitude to measured estimates. The model should be used with caution when estimating age-specific incidence rates.

  19. Nosocomial infections in HIV-infected and HIV-uninfected children ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The interaction between tuberculosis and HIV-infected infection is well known and is responsible for the increase in the incidence of tuberculosis ... This retrospective case-control study evaluated the occurrence of nosocomial infections in (HIV)-infected children and age- and time of ... complicated disease, or whose social.

  20. Nurturing the Continuum of HIV Testing, Treatment and Prevention Matrix Cascade in Reducing HIV Transmission.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yah, Clarence S

    2017-11-01

    Despite the shift in antiretroviral therapy (ARVs) eligibility cascade from CD4 ≤ 200 to CD4 ≤ 350 to CD4 ≤ 500 mm 3 , HIV related morbidity and mortality continue to escalate annually, as do HIV infections. The new paradigm of treatment for all HIV positives individual irrespective of CD4 count may significantly reduce HIV and related illnesses. The author assumes that all HIV infected partners should be eligible for HIV treatment and care, irrespective of CD4 count. A second assumption is that high risk HIV negative partners have free access to continuum of HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), post exposure prophylaxis (PEP) and other prevention packages. A literature review search was used to extract evidence-based ARVs-HIV treatment and prevention interventions among HIV positives and high risk partners respectively. Only articles published in English and indexed in journal nuclei were used for the study. The information was used to nurture understanding of HIV treatment and prevention approaches as well as HIV incidence multiplier effect among HIV serodiscordant partners. The imputed HIV incident reference was assumed at 1.2 per 100 person-years (2). This was based on the imputation that retention in care, adherence and other predetermined factors are functions of an effective health care delivery system. The model showed a reduced HIV transmission from 1.2 per 100 person-years to 1.032 per 100 person-years in 6 months. The average threshold period of HIV suppressed partners on ARVs to an undetectable level. The combined multiplier protective-effect probability of transmitting HIV from HIV positive partners on ARVs-suppressed viremic load to HIV negative partners on PrEP/PEP-prevention was detected at 86. The model showed a significant reduction in HIV incidence. Placing serodiscordant sexual partners in HIV treatment and prevention plays a significant role in reducing and controlling HIV infection. Therefore, the policy of enrolling all HIV positives

  1. Risk Factors for HIV Transmission and Barriers to HIV Disclosure: Metropolitan Atlanta Youth Perspectives

    OpenAIRE

    Camacho-Gonzalez, Andres F.; Wallins, Amy; Toledo, Lauren; Murray, Ashley; Gaul, Zaneta; Sutton, Madeline Y.; Gillespie, Scott; Leong, Traci; Graves, Chanda; Chakraborty, Rana

    2016-01-01

    Youth carry the highest incidence of HIV infection in the United States. Understanding adolescent and young adult (AYA) perspectives on HIV transmission risk is important for targeted HIV prevention. We conducted a mixed methods study with HIV-infected and uninfected youth, ages 18–24 years, from Atlanta, GA. We provided self-administered surveys to HIV-infected and HIV-uninfected AYAs to identify risk factors for HIV acquisition. By means of computer-assisted thematic analyses, we examined t...

  2. Trends in one-year cumulative incidence of death between 2005 and 2013 among patients initiating antiretroviral therapy in Uganda.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bebell, Lisa M; Siedner, Mark J; Musinguzi, Nicholas; Boum, Yap; Bwana, Bosco M; Muyindike, Winnie; Hunt, Peter W; Martin, Jeffrey N; Bangsberg, David R

    2017-07-01

    Recent ecological data demonstrate improving outcomes for HIV-infected people in sub-Saharan Africa. Recently, Uganda has experienced a resurgence in HIV incidence and prevalence, but trends in HIV-related deaths have not been well described. Data were collected through the Uganda AIDS Rural Treatment Outcomes (UARTO) Study, an observational longitudinal cohort of Ugandan adults initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) between 2005 and 2013. We calculated cumulative incidence of death within one year of ART initiation, and fit Poisson models with robust variance estimators to estimate the effect enrollment period on one-year risk of death and loss to follow-up. Of 760 persons in UARTO who started ART, 30 deaths occurred within one year of ART initiation (cumulative incidence 3.9%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.7-5.6%). Risk of death was highest for those starting ART in 2005 (13.0%, 95% CI 6.0-24.0%), decreased in 2006-2007 to 4% (95% CI 2.0-6.0%), and did not change thereafter ( P = 0.61). These results were robust to adjustment for age, sex, CD4 cell count, viral load, asset wealth, baseline depression, and body mass index. Here, we demonstrate that one-year cumulative incidence of death was high just after free ART rollout, decreased the following year, and remained low thereafter. Once established, ART programs in President's Emergency Fund for AIDS Relief-supported countries can maintain high quality care.

  3. Estimation of incidences of infectious diseases based on antibody measurements

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Simonsen, J; Mølbak, K; Falkenhorst, G

    2009-01-01

    bacterial infections. This study presents a Bayesian approach for obtaining incidence estimates by use of measurements of serum antibodies against Salmonella from a cross-sectional study. By comparing these measurements with antibody measurements from a follow-up study of infected individuals...

  4. From HIV infection to therapeutic response: a population-based longitudinal HIV cascade-of-care study in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haber, Noah; Tanser, Frank; Bor, Jacob; Naidu, Kevindra; Mutevedzi, Tinofa; Herbst, Kobus; Porter, Kholoud; Pillay, Deenan; Bärnighausen, Till

    2017-05-01

    Standard approaches to estimation of losses in the HIV cascade of care are typically cross-sectional and do not include the population stages before linkage to clinical care. We used indiviual-level longitudinal cascade data, transition by transition, including population stages, both to identify the health-system losses in the cascade and to show the differences in inference between standard methods and the longitudinal approach. We used non-parametric survival analysis to estimate a longitudinal HIV care cascade for a large population of people with HIV residing in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. We linked data from a longitudinal population health surveillance (which is maintained by the Africa Health Research Institute) with patient records from the local public-sector HIV treatment programme (contained in an electronic clinical HIV treatment and care database, ARTemis). We followed up all people who had been newly detected as having HIV between Jan 1, 2006, and Dec 31, 2011, across six cascade stages: three population stages (first positive HIV test, HIV status knowledge, and linkage to care) and three clinical stages (eligibility for antiretroviral therapy [ART], initiation of ART, and therapeutic response). We compared our estimates to cross-sectional cascades in the same population. We estimated the cumulative incidence of reaching a particular cascade stage at a specific time with Kaplan-Meier survival analysis. Our population consisted of 5205 individuals with HIV who were followed up for 24 031 person-years. We recorded 598 deaths. 4539 individuals gained knowledge of their positive HIV status, 2818 were linked to care, 2151 became eligible for ART, 1839 began ART, and 1456 had successful responses to therapy. We used Kaplan-Meier survival analysis to adjust for censorship due to the end of data collection, and found that 8 years after testing positive in the population health surveillance, 16% had died. Among living patients, 82% knew their HIV

  5. Discordant CSF/plasma HIV-1 RNA in individuals on virologically suppressive antiretroviral therapy in Western India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dravid, Ameet N; Natrajan, Kartik; Kulkarni, Milind M; Saraf, Chinmay K; Mahajan, Uma S; Kore, Sachin D; Rathod, Niranjan M; Mahajan, Umakant S; Wadia, Rustom S

    2018-02-01

    Aim of this study was to estimate the prevalence of cerebrospinal fluid (CSF)/Plasma HIV-1 RNA discordance in virologically suppressed individuals presenting with incident neurologic symptoms.In this retrospective cohort study conducted between March 1, 2009, and March 1, 2017, HIV-1 infected adults exposed to atleast 12 months of antiretroviral therapy (ART) and having plasma viral load (VL) CSF/Plasma HIV-1 RNA discordance by measuring HIV-1 RNA in collected plasma and CSF samples. CSF/plasma HIV-1 RNA discordance was defined as either detectable CSF HIV-1 RNA (VL > 20 copies/mL) with an undetectable plasma RNA (complete viral suppression, VL ≤20 copies/mL) or CSF HIV-1 RNA ≥ 0.5 log10 higher than plasma RNA when plasma VL was between 20 and 1000 copies/mL (low-level viremia, LLV).Out of 1584 virologically suppressed patients, 71 (4.4%) presented with incident neurologic symptoms. Twenty out of 71 (28.2%) patients were diagnosed with CSF/Plasma HIV-1 discordance. Median plasma and CSF VL in patients with discordance was 120 [interquartile range (IQR): CSF HIV-1 genotypic resistance testing was done showed mutations that would compromise efficacy of prescribed ART regimen. Prevalence of CSF/plasma HIV-1 RNA discordance was higher among neurologically symptomatic patients with plasma LLV as compared with those with complete viral suppression (70% vs 11.8%, P CSF/plasma HIV-1 RNA discordance indicates replication of HIV-1 that has adapted to the CNS or has developed antiretroviral drug resistance. Larger studies should be performed to study incidence of discordance in India. This will help in managing patients presenting with neurologic symptoms on suppressive ART with appropriate neuroeffective therapy.

  6. Socioecological factors influencing women’s HIV risk in the United States: qualitative findings from the women’s HIV SeroIncidence study (HPTN 064

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paula M. Frew

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background We sought to understand the multilevel syndemic factors that are concurrently contributing to the HIV epidemic among women living in the US. We specifically examined community, network, dyadic, and individual factors to explain HIV vulnerability within a socioecological framework. Methods We gathered qualitative data (120 interviews and 31 focus groups from a subset of women ages 18–44 years (N = 2,099 enrolled in the HPTN 064 HIV seroincidence estimation study across 10 US communities. We analyzed data from 4 diverse locations: Atlanta, New York City (the Bronx, Raleigh, and Washington, DC. Data were thematically coded using grounded theory methodology. Intercoder reliability was assessed to evaluate consistency of team-based coding practices. Results The following themes were identified at 4 levels including 1 exosystem (community: poverty prevalence, discrimination, gender imbalances, community violence, and housing challenges; 2 mesosystem (network: organizational social support and sexual concurrency; 3 microsystem (dyadic: sex exchange, interpersonal social support, intimate partner violence; and 4 individual: HIV/STI awareness, risk taking, and substance use. A strong theme emerged with over 80 % of responses linked to the fundamental role of financial insecurity underlying risk-taking behavioral pathways. Conclusions Multilevel syndemic factors contribute to women’s vulnerability to HIV in the US. Financial insecurity is a predominant theme, suggesting the need for tailored programming for women to reduce HIV risk. Trial registration Clinicaltrials.gov, NCT00995176

  7. Risk estimates of HIV and HBV infection to the dental operator via ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    RISK ESTIMATES OF HIV AND HBV INFECTION. TO THE DENTAL OPERATOR VIA. PRICK ACCIDENTS. W.H. van Palenstein Helderman. Department of Community and Preventive Dentistry,. Faculty of Dentistry, Muhirilbili University College of Health Sciences,. Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. , Introduction. Intact skin provides ...

  8. Estimating incidence of problem drug use using the Horwitz-Thompson estimator - A new approach applied to people who inject drugs in Oslo 1985-2008.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amundsen, Ellen J; Bretteville-Jensen, Anne L; Kraus, Ludwig

    2016-01-01

    The trend in the number of new problem drug users per year (incidence) is the most important measure for studying the diffusion of problem drug use. Due to sparse data sources and complicated statistical models, estimation of incidence of problem drug use is challenging. The aim of this study is to widen the palette of available methods and data types for estimating incidence of problem drug use over time, and for identifying the trends. This study presents a new method of incidence estimation, applied to people who inject drugs (PWID) in Oslo. The method took into account the transition between different phases of drug use progression - active use, temporary cessation, and permanent cessation. The Horwitz-Thompson estimator was applied. Data included 16 cross-sectional samples of problem drug users who reported their onset of injecting drug use. We explored variation in results for selected probable scenarios of parameter variation for disease progression, as well as the stability of the results based on fewer years of cross-sectional samples. The method yielded incidence estimates of problem drug use, over time. When applied to people in Oslo who inject drugs, we found a significant reduction of incidence of 63% from 1985 to 2008. This downward trend was also present when the estimates were based on fewer surveys (five) and in the results of sensitivity analysis for likely scenarios of disease progression. This new method, which incorporates temporarily inactive problem drug users, may become a useful tool for estimating the incidence of problem drug use over time. The method may be less data intensive than other methods based on first entry to treatment and may be generalized to other groups of substance users. Further studies on drug use progression would improve the validity of the results. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Taking multiple infections of cells and recombination into account leads to small within-host effective-population-size estimates of HIV-1.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rajesh Balagam

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Whether HIV-1 evolution in infected individuals is dominated by deterministic or stochastic effects remains unclear because current estimates of the effective population size of HIV-1 in vivo, N(e, are widely varying. Models assuming HIV-1 evolution to be neutral estimate N(e~10²-10⁴, smaller than the inverse mutation rate of HIV-1 (~10⁵, implying the predominance of stochastic forces. In contrast, a model that includes selection estimates N(e>10⁵, suggesting that deterministic forces would hold sway. The consequent uncertainty in the nature of HIV-1 evolution compromises our ability to describe disease progression and outcomes of therapy. We perform detailed bit-string simulations of viral evolution that consider large genome lengths and incorporate the key evolutionary processes underlying the genomic diversification of HIV-1 in infected individuals, namely, mutation, multiple infections of cells, recombination, selection, and epistatic interactions between multiple loci. Our simulations describe quantitatively the evolution of HIV-1 diversity and divergence in patients. From comparisons of our simulations with patient data, we estimate N(e~10³-10⁴, implying predominantly stochastic evolution. Interestingly, we find that N(e and the viral generation time are correlated with the disease progression time, presenting a route to a priori prediction of disease progression in patients. Further, we show that the previous estimate of N(e>10⁵ reduces as the frequencies of multiple infections of cells and recombination assumed increase. Our simulations with N(e~10³-10⁴ may be employed to estimate markers of disease progression and outcomes of therapy that depend on the evolution of viral diversity and divergence.

  10. On modeling HIV and T cells in vivo: assessing causal estimators in vaccine trials.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W David Wick

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available The first efficacy trials--named STEP--of a T cell vaccine against HIV/AIDS began in 2004. The unprecedented structure of these trials raised new modeling and statistical challenges. Is it plausible that memory T cells, as opposed to antibodies, can actually prevent infection? If they fail at prevention, to what extent can they ameliorate disease? And how do we estimate efficacy in a vaccine trial with two primary endpoints, one traditional, one entirely novel (viral load after infection, and where the latter may be influenced by selection bias due to the former? In preparation for the STEP trials, biostatisticians developed novel techniques for estimating a causal effect of a vaccine on viral load, while accounting for post-randomization selection bias. But these techniques have not been tested in biologically plausible scenarios. We introduce new stochastic models of T cell and HIV kinetics, making use of new estimates of the rate that cytotoxic T lymphocytes--CTLs; the so-called killer T cells--can kill HIV-infected cells. Based on these models, we make the surprising discovery that it is not entirely implausible that HIV-specific CTLs might prevent infection--as the designers explicitly acknowledged when they chose the endpoints of the STEP trials. By simulating thousands of trials, we demonstrate that the new statistical methods can correctly identify an efficacious vaccine, while protecting against a false conclusion that the vaccine exacerbates disease. In addition to uncovering a surprising immunological scenario, our results illustrate the utility of mechanistic modeling in biostatistics.

  11. HIV/AIDS among women in Havana, Cuba: 1986-2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oliva, Dinorah C; Viñas, Arturo L; Saavedra, Clarivel; Oliva, Maritza; González, Ciro; de la Torre, Caridad

    2013-10-01

    Women are being diagnosed with HIV infection in increasing numbers, and now account for 50% of cases worldwide. In Cuba, HIV is more frequent in men, but in recent years, a growing number of women have been diagnosed. Describe patterns of HIV among women in Havana, Cuba, 1986-2011. Descriptive study of women with HIV aged >14 years, residents of Havana, Cuba, who were diagnosed with HIV from 1 January 1986 through 31 December 2011. Information was obtained from the limited-access HIV/AIDS database of Cuba's Ministry of Public Health. Data were studied from all reported cases, a total of 1274 women. Variables selected were age at diagnosis, education, municipality of residence, screening group, year of HIV diagnosis, late presentation, AIDS-defining condition, year of diagnosis as AIDS case, vital status at the end of 2011, and year of death (if applicable). Incidence of HIV and AIDS, cumulative incidence by municipality of residence, and case fatality rates were calculated. Those aged 20-29 years were most affected by HIV. Almost half (46.7%) the women had completed middle school, and a further 35.4% had completed high school or middle-level technical studies. HIV incidence began to increase more steeply starting in 1998, as did AIDS incidence by year of diagnosis, though to a lesser extent. Central Havana and Old Havana municipalities had the highest cumulative incidence. Late presentation was seen in 7.4% of cases; mean age of those diagnosed late was 38.9 years. Wasting syndrome and Pneumocystis jirovecii pneumonia were the most frequent AIDS-defining conditions. Case fatality rates started to decline in 1998. HIV infection in women is occurring in a predominantly young, relatively well-educated population. Increasing rates of HIV and AIDS in the past decade are a warning sign of the possible expansion of HIV infection in women, even though mortality is declining.

  12. The contribution of unsafe blood transfusion to human immunodeficiency virus incidence in sub-Saharan Africa: reexamination of the 5% to 10% convention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morar, Malika M; Pitman, John P; McFarland, Willi; Bloch, Evan M

    2016-12-01

    Historical estimates have attributed 5% to 10% of new human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infections in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) to unsafe blood transfusions. Although frequently cited, the validity of this statistic is uncertain or outdated. Recent estimates suggest blood transfusion's contribution to new HIV infections in the region may be much lower. We searched the peer-reviewed and gray literature for quantitative estimates of the specific contribution of unsafe blood transfusion to the proportion of new HIV infections occurring in SSA. The sources and methods used to generate attribution estimates were evaluated against published country-specific HIV prevalence data. Despite multiple secondary citations, a primary published source attributing 5% to 10% of new HIV infections to blood transfusions in SSA could not be established for the current era. The United Nations Programme on HIV and AIDS (UNAIDS) modes of transmission (MOT) reports representing 15 countries suggest that between 0 and 1.1% of new HIV infections per year (median, 0.2% or approx. two out of 1000 new infections each year) may be attributable to blood transfusions. Recent modeled estimates suggest that blood transfusions account for a very low proportion of new HIV infections in SSA, likely an order of magnitude lower than 5% to 10%. Direct quantification of risk is challenging given the paucity of data on the variables that impact transfusion-associated HIV. Specifically, data on HIV incidence in blood donors, blood bank laboratory test performance, and posttransfusion surveillance are lacking. Findings suggest an urgent need for improved surveillance and modeling of transfusion-associated HIV transmission in the region. © 2016 AABB.

  13. HIV-1 transmission within marriage in rural Uganda: a longitudinal study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samuel Biraro

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Early initiation of antiretroviral therapy reduces risk of transmission to the uninfected partner in HIV discordant couples, but there are relatively little observational data on HIV transmission within couples from non-trial settings. The aims of this paper are to estimate HIV incidence among HIV discordant couples using longstanding observational data from a rural Ugandan population and to identify factors associated with HIV transmission within couples, including the role of HSV-2 infection. METHODS: Using existing data collected at population-wide annual serological and behavioural surveys in a rural district in southwest Uganda between 1989 and 2007, HIV discordant partners were identified. Stored serum samples were tested for HSV-2 serostatus using the Kalon ELISA test. HIV seroconversion rates and factors association with HIV seroconversion were analysed using Poisson regression. RESULTS: HIV status of both partners was known in 2465 couples and of these 259 (10.5% were HIV serodiscordant. At enrollment, HSV-2 prevalence was 87.3% in HIV positive partners and 71.5% in HIV negative partners. Of the 259 discordant couples, 62 converted to HIV (seroconversion rate 7.11/100 PYAR, 95%CI; 5.54, 9.11 with the rate decreasing from 10.89 in 1990-1994 to 4.32 in 2005-2007. Factors independently associated with HIV seroconversion were female sex, non-Muslim religion, greater age difference (man older than woman by more than 15 years, higher viral load in the positive partner and earlier calendar period. HSV-2 was not independently associated with HIV acquisition (HR 1.62, 95%CI; 0.57, 4.55 or transmission (HR 0.61, 95%CI; 0.24, 1.57. No transmissions occurred in the 29 couples where the index partner was on ART during follow up (872 person-years on ART. DISCUSSION: HIV negative partners in serodiscordant couples have a high incidence of HIV if the index partner is not on antiretroviral therapy and should be provided with interventions

  14. Finding the HIV Positive Mother Symposium: HIV and its meanings ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Despite the prevalence of maternal HIV infection, HIV positive mothers have only recently become a focus of psychological-scientific investigation. ... to emerge from this literature will be presented with reference to the key themes of disclosure, incidence of psychiatric symptoms, coping and support and parenting efficacy.

  15. Estimating the Impact of Earlier ART Initiation and Increased Testing Coverage on HIV Transmission among Men Who Have Sex with Men in Mexico using a Mathematical Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caro-Vega, Yanink; del Rio, Carlos; Lima, Viviane Dias; Lopez-Cervantes, Malaquias; Crabtree-Ramirez, Brenda; Bautista-Arredondo, Sergio; Colchero, M Arantxa; Sierra-Madero, Juan

    2015-01-01

    To estimate the impact of late ART initiation on HIV transmission among men who have sex with men (MSM) in Mexico. An HIV transmission model was built to estimate the number of infections transmitted by HIV-infected men who have sex with men (MSM-HIV+) MSM-HIV+ in the short and long term. Sexual risk behavior data were estimated from a nationwide study of MSM. CD4+ counts at ART initiation from a representative national cohort were used to estimate time since infection. Number of MSM-HIV+ on treatment and suppressed were estimated from surveillance and government reports. Status quo scenario (SQ), and scenarios of early ART initiation and increased HIV testing were modeled. We estimated 14239 new HIV infections per year from MSM-HIV+ in Mexico. In SQ, MSM take an average 7.4 years since infection to initiate treatment with a median CD4+ count of 148 cells/mm3(25th-75th percentiles 52-266). In SQ, 68% of MSM-HIV+ are not aware of their HIV status and transmit 78% of new infections. Increasing the CD4+ count at ART initiation to 350 cells/mm3 shortened the time since infection to 2.8 years. Increasing HIV testing to cover 80% of undiagnosed MSM resulted in a reduction of 70% in new infections in 20 years. Initiating ART at 500 cells/mm3 and increasing HIV testing the reduction would be of 75% in 20 years. A substantial number of new HIV infections in Mexico are transmitted by undiagnosed and untreated MSM-HIV+. An aggressive increase in HIV testing coverage and initiating ART at a CD4 count of 500 cells/mm3 in this population would significantly benefit individuals and decrease the number of new HIV infections in Mexico.

  16. A Method to Estimate the Size and Characteristics of HIV-positive Populations Using an Individual-based Stochastic Simulation Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nakagawa, Fumiyo; van Sighem, Ard; Thiebaut, Rodolphe

    2016-01-01

    % plausibility range: 39,900-45,560) men who have sex with men were estimated to be living with HIV in the UK, of whom 10,400 (6,160-17,350) were undiagnosed. There were an estimated 3,210 (1,730-5,350) infections per year on average between 2010 and 2013. Sixty-two percent of the total HIV-positive population......It is important not only to collect epidemiologic data on HIV but to also fully utilize such information to understand the epidemic over time and to help inform and monitor the impact of policies and interventions. We describe and apply a novel method to estimate the size and characteristics of HIV-positive...... populations. The method was applied to data on men who have sex with men living in the UK and to a pseudo dataset to assess performance for different data availability. The individual-based simulation model was calibrated using an approximate Bayesian computation-based approach. In 2013, 48,310 (90...

  17. Linked versus unlinked hospital discharge data on hip fractures for estimating incidence and comorbidity profiles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vu, Trang; Day, Lesley; Finch, Caroline F

    2012-08-01

    Studies comparing internally linked (person-identifying) and unlinked (episodes of care) hospital discharge data (HDD) on hip fractures have mainly focused on incidence overestimation by unlinked HDD, but little is known about the impact of overestimation on patient profiles such as comorbidity estimates. In view of the continuing use of unlinked HDD in hip fracture research and the desire to apply research results to hip fracture prevention, we concurrently assessed the accuracy of both incidence and comorbidity estimates derived from unlinked HDD compared to those estimated from internally linked HDD. We analysed unlinked and internally linked HDD between 01 July 2005 and 30 June 2008, inclusive, from Victoria, Australia to estimate the incidence of hospital admission for fall-related hip fracture in community-dwelling older people aged 65+ years and determine the prevalence of comorbidity in patients. Community-dwelling status was defined as living in private residence, supported residential facilities or special accommodation but not in nursing homes. We defined internally linked HDD as the reference standard and calculated measures of accuracy of fall-related hip fracture incidence by unlinked HDD using standard definitions. The extent to which comorbidity prevalence estimates by unlinked HDD differed from those by the reference standard was assessed in absolute terms. The sensitivity and specificity of a standard approach for estimating fall-related hip fracture incidence using unlinked HDD (i.e. omitting records of in-hospital deaths, inter-hospital transfers and readmissions within 30 days of discharge) were 94.4% and 97.5%, respectively. The standard approach and its variants underestimated the prevalence of some comorbidities and altered their ranking. The use of more stringent selection criteria led to major improvements in all measures of accuracy as well as overall and specific comorbidity estimates. This study strongly supports the use of linked

  18. Epidemiological bridging by injection drug use drives an early HIV epidemic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erik Volz

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available The risk of acquiring sexually transmitted infections (STIs depends on individual behavior and the network of risky partnerships in which an individual participates. STI epidemics often spread rapidly and primarily among individuals central to transmission networks; and thus they often defy the mass-action principle since incidence is not proportional to the infectious fraction of the population. Here, we estimate the contact network structure for an Atlanta, Georgia community with heterogeneous sexual and drug-related risk behaviors and build a detailed transmission model for HIV through this population. We show that accurate estimation of epidemic incidence requires careful measurement and inclusion of diverse factors including concurrency (having multiple partners, the duration of partnerships, serosorting (preference for partners with matching disease state, and heterogeneity in the number and kinds of partners. In the focal population, we find that injection drug users (IDUs do not directly cause many secondary infections; yet they bridge the heterosexual and men-who-have-sex-with-men (MSM populations and are thereby indirectly responsible for extensive transmission. Keywords: HIV, Networks, Serosorting, Concurrency

  19. Epidemiological trends of deep venous thrombosis in HIV-infected subjects (1997-2013): A nationwide population-based study in Spain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alvaro-Meca, Alejandro; Ryan, Pablo; Martínez-Larrull, Esther; Micheloud, Dariela; Berenguer, Juan; Resino, Salvador

    2018-02-01

    Chronic infections may be a triggering factor as well as a risk factor of deep venous thrombosis (DVT). The purpose of this study was to analyze the epidemiological trends of hospital admissions related to DVT in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected patients during the combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) era, in relation to hepatitis C virus (HCV) serological status. We performed a retrospective study using the Spanish Minimum Basic Data Set. We selected HIV-infected subjects over 15years old with a hospital admission and DVT diagnosis (ICD-9-CM codes: 453.4x and 453.8x) between 1997 and 2013. Patients were classified according to HCV serology. We estimated the incidence (events per 100,000 patient-years) in four calendar periods (1997-1999, 2000-2003, 2004-2007, and 2008-2013). Overall, the incidence of DVT-related hospitalizations had a significant upward trend in all HIV-infected patients (PHIV-monoinfected patients than in HIV/HCV-coinfected patients during the entire follow-up (PHIV-monoinfected patients (P=0.002) and a significant upward trend in HIV/HCV-coinfected patients (PHIV-monoinfected patients significantly decreased from 1997-1999 to 2008-2013 [142.7 vs. 103.1 (P=0.006)], whereas in HIV/HCV-coinfected patients, the incidence increased from 8.4 (1997-1999) to 70.7 (2008-2013) (PHIV-infected patients, with increasing incidence during the first 17years after the introduction of cART, particularly in HIV/HCV-coinfected patients. Copyright © 2017 European Federation of Internal Medicine. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Estimation of the Burden of Serious Human Fungal Infections in Malaysia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rukumani Devi Velayuthan

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Fungal infections (mycoses are likely to occur more frequently as ever-increasingly sophisticated healthcare systems create greater risk factors. There is a paucity of systematic data on the incidence and prevalence of human fungal infections in Malaysia. We conducted a comprehensive study to estimate the burden of serious fungal infections in Malaysia. Our study showed that recurrent vaginal candidiasis (>4 episodes/year was the most common of all cases with a diagnosis of candidiasis (n = 501,138. Oesophageal candidiasis (n = 5850 was most predominant among individuals with HIV infection. Candidemia incidence (n = 1533 was estimated in hospitalized individuals, some receiving treatment for cancer (n = 1073, and was detected also in individuals admitted to intensive care units (ICU (n = 460. In adults with asthma, allergic bronchopulmonary aspergillosis (ABPA was the second most common respiratory mycoses noticed (n = 30,062 along with severe asthma with fungal sensitization (n = 39,628. Invasive aspergillosis was estimated in 184 cases undergoing anti-cancer treatment and 834 ICU cases. Cryptococcal meningitis was diagnosed in 700 subjects with HIV/AIDS and Pneumocystis jirovecii pneumonitis (PCP in 1286 subjects with underlying HIV disease. The present study indicates that at least 590,214 of the Malaysian population (1.93% is affected by a serious fungal infection annually. This problem is serious enough to warrant the further epidemiological studies to estimate the burden of human fungal infections in Malaysia.

  1. Zidovudine for the prevention of vertical HIV transmission: a decision analytic approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rouse, D J; Owen, J; Goldenberg, R L; Vermund, S H

    1995-08-01

    The purpose of this study was to quantify the benefits of maternal-neonatal zidovudine (ZDV) administration for the prevention of vertical human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission against the potential risks of drug-induced complications in uninfected children. A decision analysis model was created with use of a Markov cohort simulation, for evaluating both survival and quality of life for two hypothetical cohorts of HIV-exposed neonates: one with in utero and neonatal exposure to preventive ZDV therapy and the other not exposed. The model included the probability of congenital HIV infection with and without ZDV treatment (estimates derived from AIDS Clinical Trials Group study 076), the yearly probability of death with and without congenital HIV infection, a range of probabilities of adverse effects from ZDV use, and a range of ages in life when any adverse effect would manifest. In a series of scenarios, the impact of different estimates for the quality-of-life decrement from any adverse ZDV effect in HIV-uninfected children was assessed, and threshold values for this estimate were established, i.e., critical values below which withholding ZDV would be the preferred choice. Across a wide range of estimates for multiple contingencies, ZDV use was associated with a greater number of quality-adjusted life years than was non-use. Only in implausible, pessimistic scenarios (i.e., a high incidence of profound adverse effects beginning early in life) would withholding ZDV be the rational choice for an asymptomatic HIV-infected pregnant woman.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

  2. Preexposure Prophylaxis for HIV Infection among African Women

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Damme, Lut; Corneli, Amy; Ahmed, Khatija; Agot, Kawango; Lombaard, Johan; Kapiga, Saidi; Malahleha, Mookho; Owino, Fredrick; Manongi, Rachel; Onyango, Jacob; Temu, Lucky; Monedi, Modie Constance; Mak’Oketch, Paul; Makanda, Mankalimeng; Reblin, Ilse; Makatu, Shumani Elsie; Saylor, Lisa; Kiernan, Haddie; Kirkendale, Stella; Wong, Christina; Grant, Robert; Kashuba, Angela; Nanda, Kavita; Mandala, Justin; Fransen, Katrien; Deese, Jennifer; Crucitti, Tania; Mastro, Timothy D.; Taylor, Douglas

    2013-01-01

    BACKGROUND Preexposure prophylaxis with antiretroviral drugs has been effective in the prevention of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection in some trials but not in others. METHODS In this randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial, we assigned 2120 HIV-negative women in Kenya, South Africa, and Tanzania to receive either a combination of tenofovir disoproxil fumarate and emtricitabine (TDF–FTC) or placebo once daily. The primary objective was to assess the effectiveness of TDF–FTC in preventing HIV acquisition and to evaluate safety. RESULTS HIV infections occurred in 33 women in the TDF–FTC group (incidence rate, 4.7 per 100 person-years) and in 35 in the placebo group (incidence rate, 5.0 per 100 person-years), for an estimated hazard ratio in the TDF-FTC group of 0.94 (95% confidence interval, 0.59 to 1.52; P = 0.81). The proportions of women with nausea, vomiting, or elevated alanine aminotransferase levels were significantly higher in the TDF–FTC group (P = 0.04, P<0.001, and P = 0.03, respectively). Rates of drug discontinuation because of hepatic or renal abnormalities were higher in the TDF–FTC group (4.7%) than in the placebo group (3.0%, P = 0.051). Less than 40% of the HIV-uninfected women in the TDF–FTC group had evidence of recent pill use at visits that were matched to the HIV-infection window for women with seroconversion. The study was stopped early, on April 18, 2011, because of lack of efficacy. CONCLUSIONS Prophylaxis with TDF–FTC did not significantly reduce the rate of HIV infection and was associated with increased rates of side effects, as compared with placebo. Despite substantial counseling efforts, drug adherence appeared to be low. (Supported by the U.S. Agency for International Development and others; FEM-PrEP ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00625404.) PMID:22784040

  3. Clinical impact and cost-effectiveness of expanded voluntary HIV testing in India.

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    Kartik K Venkatesh

    Full Text Available Despite expanding access to antiretroviral therapy (ART, most of the estimated 2.3 to 2.5 million HIV-infected individuals in India remain undiagnosed. The questions of whom to test for HIV and at what frequency remain unclear.We used a simulation model of HIV testing and treatment to examine alternative HIV screening strategies: 1 current practice, 2 one-time, 3 every five years, and 4 annually; and we applied these strategies to three population scenarios: 1 the general Indian population ("national population", i.e. base case (HIV prevalence 0.29%; incidence 0.032/100 person-years [PY]; 2 high-prevalence districts (HIV prevalence 0.8%; incidence 0.088/100 PY, and 3 high-risk groups (HIV prevalence 5.0%; incidence 0.552/100 PY. Cohort characteristics reflected Indians reporting for HIV testing, with a median age of 35 years, 66% men, and a mean CD4 count of 305 cells/µl. The cost of a rapid HIV test was $3.33. Outcomes included life expectancy, HIV-related direct medical costs, incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs, and secondary transmission benefits. The threshold for "cost-effective" was defined as 3x the annual per capita GDP of India ($3,900/year of life saved [YLS], or for "very cost-effective" was <1x the annual per capita GDP ($1,300/YLS.Compared to current practice, one-time screening was very cost-effective in the national population (ICER: $1,100/YLS, high-prevalence districts (ICER: $800/YLS, and high-risk groups (ICER: $800/YLS. Screening every five years in the national population (ICER: $1,900/YLS and annual screening in high-prevalence districts (ICER: $1,900/YLS and high-risk groups (ICER: $1,800/YLS were also cost-effective. Results were most sensitive to costs of care and linkage-to-care.In India, voluntary HIV screening of the national population every five years offers substantial clinical benefit and is cost-effective. Annual screening is cost-effective among high-risk groups and in high-prevalence districts

  4. Study design and the estimation of the size of key populations at risk of HIV: lessons from Viet Nam.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Safarnejad, Ali; Groot, Wim; Pavlova, Milena

    2018-01-30

    Estimation of the size of populations at risk of HIV is a key activity in the surveillance of the HIV epidemic. The existing framework for considering future research needs may provide decision-makers with a basis for a fair process of deciding on the methods of the estimation of the size of key populations at risk of HIV. This study explores the extent to which stakeholders involved with population size estimation agree with this framework, and thus, the study updates the framework. We conducted 16 in-depth interviews with key informants from city and provincial governments, NGOs, research institutes, and the community of people at risk of HIV. Transcripts were analyzed and reviewed for significant statements pertaining to criteria. Variations and agreement around criteria were analyzed, and emerging criteria were validated against the existing framework. Eleven themes emerged which are relevant to the estimation of the size of populations at risk of HIV in Viet Nam. Findings on missing criteria, inclusive participation, community perspectives and conflicting weight and direction of criteria provide insights for an improved framework for the prioritization of population size estimation methods. The findings suggest that the exclusion of community members from decision-making on population size estimation methods in Viet Nam may affect the validity, use, and efficiency of the evidence generated. However, a wider group of decision-makers, including community members among others, may introduce diverse definitions, weight and direction of criteria. Although findings here may not apply to every country with a transitioning economy or to every emerging epidemic, the principles of fair decision-making, value of community participation in decision-making and the expected challenges faced, merit consideration in every situation.

  5. HIV Model Parameter Estimates from Interruption Trial Data including Drug Efficacy and Reservoir Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Rutao; Piovoso, Michael J.; Martinez-Picado, Javier; Zurakowski, Ryan

    2012-01-01

    Mathematical models based on ordinary differential equations (ODE) have had significant impact on understanding HIV disease dynamics and optimizing patient treatment. A model that characterizes the essential disease dynamics can be used for prediction only if the model parameters are identifiable from clinical data. Most previous parameter identification studies for HIV have used sparsely sampled data from the decay phase following the introduction of therapy. In this paper, model parameters are identified from frequently sampled viral-load data taken from ten patients enrolled in the previously published AutoVac HAART interruption study, providing between 69 and 114 viral load measurements from 3–5 phases of viral decay and rebound for each patient. This dataset is considerably larger than those used in previously published parameter estimation studies. Furthermore, the measurements come from two separate experimental conditions, which allows for the direct estimation of drug efficacy and reservoir contribution rates, two parameters that cannot be identified from decay-phase data alone. A Markov-Chain Monte-Carlo method is used to estimate the model parameter values, with initial estimates obtained using nonlinear least-squares methods. The posterior distributions of the parameter estimates are reported and compared for all patients. PMID:22815727

  6. The Canadian HIV and aging cohort study - determinants of increased risk of cardio-vascular diseases in HIV-infected individuals: rationale and study protocol.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Durand, Madeleine; Chartrand-Lefebvre, Carl; Baril, Jean-Guy; Trottier, Sylvie; Trottier, Benoit; Harris, Marianne; Walmsley, Sharon; Conway, Brian; Wong, Alexander; Routy, Jean-Pierre; Kovacs, Colin; MacPherson, Paul A; Monteith, Kenneth Marc; Mansour, Samer; Thanassoulis, George; Abrahamowicz, Michal; Zhu, Zhitong; Tsoukas, Christos; Ancuta, Petronela; Bernard, Nicole; Tremblay, Cécile L

    2017-09-11

    With potent antiretroviral drugs, HIV infection is becoming a chronic disease. Emergence of comorbidities, particularly cardiovascular disease (CVD) has become a leading concern for patients living with the infection. We hypothesized that the chronic and persistent inflammation and immune activation associated with HIV disease leads to accelerated aging, characterized by CVD. This will translate into higher incidence rates of CVD in HIV infected participants, when compared to HIV negative participants, after adjustment for traditional CVD risk factors. When characterized further using cardiovascular imaging, biomarkers, immunological and genetic profiles, CVD associated with HIV will show different characteristics compared to CVD in HIV-negative individuals. The Canadian HIV and Aging cohort is a prospective, controlled cohort study funded by the Canadian Institutes of Health Research. It will recruit patients living with HIV who are aged 40 years or older or have lived with HIV for 15 years or more. A control population, frequency matched for age, sex, and smoking status, will be recruited from the general population. Patients will attend study visits at baseline, year 1, 2, 5 and 8. At each study visit, data on complete medical and pharmaceutical history will be captured, along with anthropometric measures, a complete physical examination, routine blood tests and electrocardiogram. Consenting participants will also contribute blood samples to a research biobank. The primary outcome is incidence of a composite of: myocardial infarction, coronary revascularization, stroke, hospitalization for angina or congestive heart failure, revascularization or amputation for peripheral artery disease, or cardiovascular death. Preplanned secondary outcomes are all-cause mortality, incidence of the metabolic syndrome, incidence of type 2 diabetes, incidence of renal failure, incidence of abnormal bone mineral density and body fat distribution. Patients participating to the

  7. Incident and prevalence of HIV/AIDS among patients attending a ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Young people, ages 15–24, account for approximately 40% of new HIV infections (among those 15 and over). Globally, young women are twice as likely to become infected with HIV than their male counterparts. As at 2012, UNAIDS revealed that the HIV/AIDS prevalence rate among adults of ages 15-49 in Nigeria was ...

  8. Improving incidence estimation in practice-based sentinel surveillance networks using spatial variation in general practitioner density

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cécile Souty

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In surveillance networks based on voluntary participation of health-care professionals, there is little choice regarding the selection of participants’ characteristics. External information about participants, for example local physician density, can help reduce bias in incidence estimates reported by the surveillance network. Methods There is an inverse association between the number of reported influenza-like illness (ILI cases and local general practitioners (GP density. We formulated and compared estimates of ILI incidence using this relationship. To compare estimates, we simulated epidemics using a spatially explicit disease model and their observation by surveillance networks with different characteristics: random, maximum coverage, largest cities, etc. Results In the French practice-based surveillance network – the “Sentinelles” network – GPs reported 3.6% (95% CI [3;4] less ILI cases as local GP density increased by 1 GP per 10,000 inhabitants. Incidence estimates varied markedly depending on scenarios for participant selection in surveillance. Yet accounting for change in GP density for participants allowed reducing bias. Applied on data from the Sentinelles network, changes in overall incidence ranged between 1.6 and 9.9%. Conclusions Local GP density is a simple measure that provides a way to reduce bias in estimating disease incidence in general practice. It can contribute to improving disease monitoring when it is not possible to choose the characteristics of participants.

  9. Leishmaniasis worldwide and global estimates of its incidence.

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    Jorge Alvar

    Full Text Available As part of a World Health Organization-led effort to update the empirical evidence base for the leishmaniases, national experts provided leishmaniasis case data for the last 5 years and information regarding treatment and control in their respective countries and a comprehensive literature review was conducted covering publications on leishmaniasis in 98 countries and three territories (see 'Leishmaniasis Country Profiles Text S1, S2, S3, S4, S5, S6, S7, S8, S9, S10, S11, S12, S13, S14, S15, S16, S17, S18, S19, S20, S21, S22, S23, S24, S25, S26, S27, S28, S29, S30, S31, S32, S33, S34, S35, S36, S37, S38, S39, S40, S41, S42, S43, S44, S45, S46, S47, S48, S49, S50, S51, S52, S53, S54, S55, S56, S57, S58, S59, S60, S61, S62, S63, S64, S65, S66, S67, S68, S69, S70, S71, S72, S73, S74, S75, S76, S77, S78, S79, S80, S81, S82, S83, S84, S85, S86, S87, S88, S89, S90, S91, S92, S93, S94, S95, S96, S97, S98, S99, S100, S101'. Additional information was collated during meetings conducted at WHO regional level between 2007 and 2011. Two questionnaires regarding epidemiology and drug access were completed by experts and national program managers. Visceral and cutaneous leishmaniasis incidence ranges were estimated by country and epidemiological region based on reported incidence, underreporting rates if available, and the judgment of national and international experts. Based on these estimates, approximately 0.2 to 0.4 cases and 0.7 to 1.2 million VL and CL cases, respectively, occur each year. More than 90% of global VL cases occur in six countries: India, Bangladesh, Sudan, South Sudan, Ethiopia and Brazil. Cutaneous leishmaniasis is more widely distributed, with about one-third of cases occurring in each of three epidemiological regions, the Americas, the Mediterranean basin, and western Asia from the Middle East to Central Asia. The ten countries with the highest estimated case counts, Afghanistan, Algeria, Colombia, Brazil, Iran, Syria, Ethiopia, North

  10. Time trend in hypertension prevalence, awareness, treatment, and control in a contemporary cohort of HIV-infected patients: the HIV and Hypertension Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Socio, Giuseppe Vittorio; Ricci, Elena; Maggi, Paolo; Parruti, Giustino; Celesia, Benedetto Maurizio; Orofino, Giancarlo; Madeddu, Giordano; Martinelli, Canio; Menzaghi, Barbara; Taramasso, Lucia; Bonfanti, Paolo; Pucci, Giacomo; Schillaci, Giuseppe

    2017-02-01

    Hypertension control is often inadequate in HIV patients. In a contemporary, nationwide cohort of Italian HIV-infected adults, we assessed time trends in hypertension prevalence, awareness, treatment, and control. We also evaluated predictors of cardiovascular events and of new-onset hypertension. Multicenter prospective cohort study, sampling 961 consecutive HIV patients (71% men, mean age 46 ± 9 years, 30% hypertensive) examined in 2010-2014 and after a median follow-up of 3.4 years. Among hypertensive patients, hypertension awareness (63% at baseline and 92% at follow-up), treatment (54 vs. 79%), and control (35 vs. 59%) all improved during follow-up. The incidence of new-onset hypertension was 50.1/1000 person-years (95% confidence interval, 41.2-60.3). Multivariable-adjusted predictors of hypertension were age, BMI, estimated cardiovascular risk, blood pressure, and advanced HIV clinical stage.In total, 35 new cardiovascular events were reported during follow-up (11.1/1000 person-years). In a multivariate model, baseline cardiovascular risk and hypertensive status predicted incident cardiovascular events, whereas a higher CD4 cell count had a protective role. In treated hypertensive patients, the use of integrase strand transfer inhibitors at follow-up was associated with a lower SBP (average yearly change, -3.8 ± 1.6 vs. -0.9 ± 0.5 mmHg in integrase strand transfer inhibitor users vs. nonusers, respectively, P = 0.02). Hypertension awareness, treatment, and control rates all improved in adult Italian HIV patients over the last few years, although hypertension remains highly prevalent (41%) in middle-aged HIV patients, and significantly impacts cardiovascular morbidity. Traditional risk factors and advanced HIV disease predict new-onset hypertension, whereas CD4 cell count favorably affects future cardiovascular events.

  11. HIV-1 transmission during early infection in men who have sex with men: a phylodynamic analysis.

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    Erik M Volz

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Conventional epidemiological surveillance of infectious diseases is focused on characterization of incident infections and estimation of the number of prevalent infections. Advances in methods for the analysis of the population-level genetic variation of viruses can potentially provide information about donors, not just recipients, of infection. Genetic sequences from many viruses are increasingly abundant, especially HIV, which is routinely sequenced for surveillance of drug resistance mutations. We conducted a phylodynamic analysis of HIV genetic sequence data and surveillance data from a US population of men who have sex with men (MSM and estimated incidence and transmission rates by stage of infection.We analyzed 662 HIV-1 subtype B sequences collected between October 14, 2004, and February 24, 2012, from MSM in the Detroit metropolitan area, Michigan. These sequences were cross-referenced with a database of 30,200 patients diagnosed with HIV infection in the state of Michigan, which includes clinical information that is informative about the recency of infection at the time of diagnosis. These data were analyzed using recently developed population genetic methods that have enabled the estimation of transmission rates from the population-level genetic diversity of the virus. We found that genetic data are highly informative about HIV donors in ways that standard surveillance data are not. Genetic data are especially informative about the stage of infection of donors at the point of transmission. We estimate that 44.7% (95% CI, 42.2%-46.4% of transmissions occur during the first year of infection.In this study, almost half of transmissions occurred within the first year of HIV infection in MSM. Our conclusions may be sensitive to un-modeled intra-host evolutionary dynamics, un-modeled sexual risk behavior, and uncertainty in the stage of infected hosts at the time of sampling. The intensity of transmission during early infection may have

  12. vFitness: a web-based computing tool for improving estimation of in vitro HIV-1 fitness experiments

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    Demeter Lisa

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The replication rate (or fitness between viral variants has been investigated in vivo and in vitro for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV. HIV fitness plays an important role in the development and persistence of drug resistance. The accurate estimation of viral fitness relies on complicated computations based on statistical methods. This calls for tools that are easy to access and intuitive to use for various experiments of viral fitness. Results Based on a mathematical model and several statistical methods (least-squares approach and measurement error models, a Web-based computing tool has been developed for improving estimation of virus fitness in growth competition assays of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1. Conclusions Unlike the two-point calculation used in previous studies, the estimation here uses linear regression methods with all observed data in the competition experiment to more accurately estimate relative viral fitness parameters. The dilution factor is introduced for making the computational tool more flexible to accommodate various experimental conditions. This Web-based tool is implemented in C# language with Microsoft ASP.NET, and is publicly available on the Web at http://bis.urmc.rochester.edu/vFitness/.

  13. Stroke in HIV-infected individuals with and without HCV coinfection in Spain in the combination antiretroviral therapy era

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alvaro-Meca, Alejandro; Díaz, Asunción; Micheloud, Dariela; Aldámiz-Echevarría, Teresa; Fanciulli, Chiara

    2017-01-01

    The incidence of stroke in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)–infected individuals has been well analyzed in recent epidemiological studies. However, little is known about the specific contribution of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection to stroke among HIV-infected individuals. The aims of this study were to analyze trends in the incidence rates of stroke in HIV-infected individuals during the combination antiretroviral (cART) era in Spain and to categorize them by the presence or absence of HCV coinfection. We analyzed hospital discharges with a diagnosis of stroke in Spain according to ICD-9-CM during 1997–2013. The study period was divided into four calendar periods (1997–1999, 2000–2003, 2004–2007, and 2008–2013). Patients were classified according to HCV serology. The number of HIV-infected patients was estimated based on data from the National Centre of Epidemiology. We calculated incidence rates (events per 10,000 patient-years) and in-hospital case fatality rates (CFR). The incidence of hemorrhagic stroke (HS) decreased in HIV-monoinfected patients (15.8 [1997–1999] to 6.5 [2008–2013]; P<0.001) and increased in HIV/HCV-coinfected patients (1.3 [1997–1999] to 5.5 [2008–2013]; P<0.001). The incidence of ischemic stroke (IS) decreased in HIV-monoinfected patients (27.4 [1997–1999] to 21.7 [2008–2013]; P = 0.005) and increased in HIV/HCV-coinfected patients (1.8 [1997–1999] to 11.9 [2008–2013]; P<0.001). The CFR was 3.3 times higher for HS than for IS for the whole study period. The CFR of HS in HIV-monoinfected patients decreased significantly (47.4% [1997–1999] to 30.6% [2008–2013]; P = 0.010) but did not change significantly among HIV/HCV-coinfected patients (41.4% [1997–1999] to 44.7% [2008–2013]; P = 0.784). The CFR of IS in the whole HIV-infected population decreased significantly (14.6% [1997–1999] to 10.9% [2008–2013]; P = 0.034), although no significant differences were found when each group was analyzed separately

  14. Aging with HIV: a practical review

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    Sandra Wagner Cardoso

    Full Text Available The worldwide elderly population is expected to grow by an additional 694 million people by 2025. By that time, there will be approximately two billion elderly people in the world, most of whom (80% will be living in developing countries. Based on recent estimates, this population will number over 40 million in 2030 in Brazil and a consequent increase in governmental spending for this population can be expected. Since highly active antiretroviral therapy became available in the mid-1990s, the life expectancy of people living with HIV has increased significantly. Approximately 12 million life years were added to the world between 1996 and 2008 as a consequence of wider access to highly active antiretroviral therapy. In Brazil, the incidence of AIDS among the population aged >50 years doubled between 1996 and 2006. The development of antiretroviral therapy has allowed individuals diagnosed at a younger age to live longer, which partially explains the aging tendency associated with the HIV/AIDS epidemic. It is estimated that by 2015, subjects aged >50 years will represent 50% of the people living with HIV undergoing clinical treatment. This scenario presents some challenges, including the fact that the diagnosis of HIV tends to be delayed in older patients compared to younger patients because the symptoms of HIV can be confused with those of other common diseases among the elderly and also because healthcare professionals do not consider this population to be at high risk for HIV infection. In regard to the individuals diagnosed with HIV, a further challenge is presented by the morbidity normally associated with aging. Finally, the elderly also exhibit higher susceptibility to the toxic effects and pharmacological interactions of medications. The present article reviews the literature regarding the profile of HIV infection among individuals aged >50 years focusing on practical features related to the clinical approach and long-term follow-up of

  15. The Number and Complexity of Pure and Recombinant HIV-1 Strains Observed within Incident Infections during the HIV and Malaria Cohort Study Conducted in Kericho, Kenya, from 2003 to 2006.

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    Erik Billings

    Full Text Available Characterization of HIV-1 subtype diversity in regions where vaccine trials are conducted is critical for vaccine development and testing. This study describes the molecular epidemiology of HIV-1 within a tea-plantation community cohort in Kericho, Kenya. Sixty-three incident infections were ascertained in the HIV and Malaria Cohort Study conducted in Kericho from 2003 to 2006. HIV-1 strains from 58 of those individuals were full genome characterized and compared to two previous Kenyan studies describing 41 prevalent infections from a blood bank survey (1999-2000 and 21 infections from a higher-risk cohort containing a mix of incident and prevalent infections (2006. Among the 58 strains from the community cohort, 43.1% were pure subtypes (36.2% A1, 5.2% C, and 1.7% G and 56.9% were inter-subtype recombinants (29.3% A1D, 8.6% A1CD, 6.9% A1A2D, 5.2% A1C, 3.4% A1A2CD, and 3.4% A2D. This diversity and the resulting genetic distance between the observed strains will need to be addressed when vaccine immunogens are chosen. In consideration of current vaccine development efforts, the strains from these three studies were compared to five candidate vaccines (each of which are viral vectored, carrying inserts corresponding to parts of gag, pol, and envelope, which have been developed for possible use in sub-Saharan Africa. The sequence comparison between the observed strains and the candidate vaccines indicates that in the presence of diverse recombinants, a bivalent vaccine is more likely to provide T-cell epitope coverage than monovalent vaccines even when the inserts of the bivalent vaccine are not subtype-matched to the local epidemic.

  16. The Number and Complexity of Pure and Recombinant HIV-1 Strains Observed within Incident Infections during the HIV and Malaria Cohort Study Conducted in Kericho, Kenya, from 2003 to 2006

    Science.gov (United States)

    Billings, Erik; Sanders-Buell, Eric; Bose, Meera; Bradfield, Andrea; Lei, Esther; Kijak, Gustavo H.; Arroyo, Miguel A.; Kibaya, Rukia M.; Scott, Paul T.; Wasunna, Monique K.; Sawe, Frederick K.; Shaffer, Douglas N.; Birx, Deborah L.; McCutchan, Francine E.; Michael, Nelson L.; Robb, Merlin L.; Kim, Jerome H.; Tovanabutra, Sodsai

    2015-01-01

    Characterization of HIV-1 subtype diversity in regions where vaccine trials are conducted is critical for vaccine development and testing. This study describes the molecular epidemiology of HIV-1 within a tea-plantation community cohort in Kericho, Kenya. Sixty-three incident infections were ascertained in the HIV and Malaria Cohort Study conducted in Kericho from 2003 to 2006. HIV-1 strains from 58 of those individuals were full genome characterized and compared to two previous Kenyan studies describing 41 prevalent infections from a blood bank survey (1999–2000) and 21 infections from a higher-risk cohort containing a mix of incident and prevalent infections (2006). Among the 58 strains from the community cohort, 43.1% were pure subtypes (36.2% A1, 5.2% C, and 1.7% G) and 56.9% were inter-subtype recombinants (29.3% A1D, 8.6% A1CD, 6.9% A1A2D, 5.2% A1C, 3.4% A1A2CD, and 3.4% A2D). This diversity and the resulting genetic distance between the observed strains will need to be addressed when vaccine immunogens are chosen. In consideration of current vaccine development efforts, the strains from these three studies were compared to five candidate vaccines (each of which are viral vectored, carrying inserts corresponding to parts of gag, pol, and envelope), which have been developed for possible use in sub-Saharan Africa. The sequence comparison between the observed strains and the candidate vaccines indicates that in the presence of diverse recombinants, a bivalent vaccine is more likely to provide T-cell epitope coverage than monovalent vaccines even when the inserts of the bivalent vaccine are not subtype-matched to the local epidemic. PMID:26287814

  17. Pregnancy outcomes in HIV-positive women: a retrospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arab, Kholoud; Spence, Andrea R; Czuzoj-Shulman, Nicholas; Abenhaim, Haim A

    2017-03-01

    In the United States, an estimated 8500 HIV (human immunodeficiency virus) positive women gave birth in 2014. This rate appears to be increasing annually. Our objective is to examine obstetrical outcomes of pregnancy among HIV-positive women. A population-based cohort study was conducted using the Nationwide Inpatient Sample database (2003-2011) from the United States. Pregnant HIV-positive women were identified and compared to pregnant women without HIV. Multivariate logistic regression was used to estimate the adjusted effect of HIV status on obstetrical and neonatal outcomes. Among 7,772,999 births over the study period, 1997 were in HIV-positive women (an incidence of 25.7/100,000 births). HIV-infected patients had greater frequency of pre-existing diabetes and chronic hypertension, and use of cigarettes, drugs, and alcohol during pregnancy (p HIV-infected women had greater likelihood of antenatal complications: preterm premature rupture of membranes (OR 1.35, 95% CI 1.14-1.60) and urinary tract infections (OR 3.02, 95% CI 2.40-3.81). Delivery and postpartum complications were also increased among HIV-infected women: cesarean delivery (OR 3.06, 95% CI 2.79-3.36), postpartum sepsis (OR 8.05, 95% CI 5.44-11.90), venous thromboembolism (OR 2.21, 95% CI 1.46-3.33), blood transfusions (OR 3.67, 95% CI 3.01-4.49), postpartum infection (OR 3.00, 95% CI 2.37-3.80), and maternal mortality (OR 21.52, 95% CI 12.96-35.72). Neonates born to these mothers were at higher risk of prematurity and intrauterine growth restriction. Pregnancy in HIV-infected women is associated with adverse maternal and newborn complications. Pregnant HIV-positive women should be followed in high-risk healthcare centers.

  18. Incident syphilis infection among people who inject drugs in Tijuana, Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pines, Heather A; Rusch, Melanie L; Vera, Alicia; Rangel, Gudelia; Magis-Rodriguez, Carlos; Strathdee, Steffanie A

    2015-12-01

    Given that syphilis is associated with HIV infection among people who inject drugs (PWID), we examined syphilis incidence among PWID in Tijuana, Mexico. From 2006 to 2007, 940 PWID (142 women and 798 men) were recruited via respondent-driven sampling and followed for 18 months. At semi-annual visits, participants were tested for syphilis and completed surveys, which collected information on socio-demographics, sexual behaviours, substance use and injection behaviours. Poisson regression was used to estimate syphilis incidence rates (IRs), incidence rate ratios (IRRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Twenty-one participants acquired syphilis during follow-up (IR = 1.57 per 100 person-years, 95% CI: 1.02-2.41). In a multivariate analysis, syphilis incidence was higher among women (IRR = 3.90, 95% CI: 1.37-11.09), HIV-positive participants (IRR = 4.60, 95% CI: 1.58-13.39) and those who reported ever exchanging sex for drugs, money, or other goods (IRR = 2.74, 95% CI: 0.97-7.76), while syphilis incidence was lower among those living in Tijuana for a longer duration (IRR = 0.95 per year, 95% CI: 0.91-1.00) and those reporting at least daily injection drug use (past 6 months) (IRR = 0.22, 95% CI: 0.09-0.54). Our findings suggest interventions that address the destabilising conditions associated with migration and integrate sexual and drug-related risk reduction strategies may help reduce syphilis incidence among PWID along the Mexico-US border. © The Author(s) 2015.

  19. Predictors of incident tuberculosis in HIV-exposed children in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Objective: To examine the predictors of tuberculosis infection in HIV-exposed children. Design: A longitudinal cohort study nested within a randomised controlled trial. Setting: Antenatal clinics in Dar-es-Salaam, Tanzania. Subjects: Children born to 875 HIV-infected women in Tanzania. Results: A total of 82 children ...

  20. Retinal arterioles narrow with increasing duration of anti-retroviral therapy in HIV infection: a novel estimator of vascular risk in HIV?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sophia Pathai

    Full Text Available HIV infection is associated with an increased risk of age-related morbidity mediated by immune dysfunction, atherosclerosis and inflammation. Changes in retinal vessel calibre may reflect cumulative structural damage arising from these mechanisms. The relationship of retinal vessel calibre with clinical and demographic characteristics was investigated in a population of HIV-infected individuals in South Africa.Case-control study of 491 adults ≥30 years, composed of 242 HIV-infected adults and 249 age- and gender-matched HIV-negative controls. Retinal vessel calibre was measured using computer-assisted techniques to determine mean arteriolar and venular diameters of each eye.The median age was 40 years (IQR: 35-48 years. Among HIV-infected adults, 87.1% were receiving highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART (median duration, 58 months, their median CD4 count was 468 cells/µL, and 84.3% had undetectable plasma viral load. Unadjusted mean retinal arteriolar diameters were 163.67±17.69 µm in cases and 161.34±17.38 µm in controls (p = 0.15. Unadjusted mean venular diameters were 267.77±18.21 µm in cases and 270.81±18.98 µm in controls (p = 0.07. Age modified the effect of retinal arteriolar and venular diameters in relation to HIV status, with a tendency towards narrower retinal diameters in HIV cases but not in controls. Among cases, retinal arteriolar diameters narrowed with increasing duration of HAART, independently of age (167.83 µm 6 years, p-trend = 0.02, and with a HIV viral load >10,000 copies/mL while on HAART (p = 0.05. HIV-related venular changes were not detected.Narrowing of retinal arteriolar diameters is associated with HAART duration and viral load, and may reflect heightened inflammatory and pro-atherogenic states of the systemic vasculature. Measurement of retinal vascular calibre could be an innovative non-invasive method of estimating vascular risk in HIV-infected individuals.

  1. Indices to measure risk of HIV acquisition in Rakai, Uganda.

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    Joseph Kagaayi

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: Targeting most-at-risk individuals with HIV preventive interventions is cost-effective. We developed gender-specific indices to measure risk of HIV among sexually active individuals in Rakai, Uganda. METHODS: We used multivariable Cox proportional hazards models to estimate time-to-HIV infection associated with candidate predictors. Reduced models were determined using backward selection procedures with Akaike's information criterion (AIC as the stopping rule. Model discrimination was determined using Harrell's concordance index (c index. Model calibration was determined graphically. Nomograms were used to present the final prediction models. RESULTS: We used samples of 7,497 women and 5,783 men. 342 new infections occurred among females (incidence 1.11/100 person years, and 225 among the males (incidence 1.00/100 person years. The final model for men included age, education, circumcision status, number of sexual partners, genital ulcer disease symptoms, alcohol use before sex, partner in high risk employment, community type, being unaware of a partner's HIV status and community HIV prevalence. The Model's optimism-corrected c index was 69.1 percent (95% CI = 0.66, 0.73. The final women's model included age, marital status, education, number of sex partners, new sex partner, alcohol consumption by self or partner before sex, concurrent sexual partners, being employed in a high-risk occupation, having genital ulcer disease symptoms, community HIV prevalence, and perceiving oneself or partner to be exposed to HIV. The models optimism-corrected c index was 0.67 (95% CI = 0.64, 0.70. Both models were well calibrated. CONCLUSION: These indices were discriminative and well calibrated. This provides proof-of-concept that population-based HIV risk indices can be developed. Further research to validate these indices for other populations is needed.

  2. The Incidence of Exudative Otitis Media in HIV Infected Children

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    Nuriddin U. Narzullaev, PhD

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Diseases of the ENT organs are among the commonly prevalent and dangerous pathologies of childhood, occurring as a complication of respiratory, bacterial diseases and HIV infection. One of the serious complications of HIV infection in children is the lesion of ENT organs. In HIV infected children, in addition to suppurative diseases occur middle ear diseases with nonsuppurative origin. A total of 79 HIV infected children aged 3-14 years with different pathologies of the nasal cavity, nasopharynx and paranasal sinuses were included into the current study. The control group included 20 healthy children of comparable age and sex. The survey was conducted in the ENT department of the Children’s Multi-Medical Center, in Bukhara region. Children with a diagnosis of suppurative otitis media and/or history of suppurative otitis media were not included into the study. All HIV infected children, along with physical examination, were performed ENT examination, finger study, X-ray examination of the paranasal sinuses, audiological research and impedancemetry.

  3. The HIV/AIDS Epidemic in the Dominican Republic: Key Contributing Factors.

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    Rojas, Patria; Malow, Robert; Ruffin, Beverly; Rothe, Eugenio M; Rosenberg, Rhonda

    2011-01-01

    This article reviews HIV/AIDS epidemiological data and recent research conducted in the Dominican Republic, with a focus on explaining the variability in estimated seroincidence and prevalence within the country. HIV seroprevalence estimates range from 1.0% (in the general population) to 11.0% among men who have sex with men (MSM). Some have indicated that the highest HIV seroprevalence occurs in Haitian enclaves called bateyes (US Agency for International Development [USAID], 2008), which are migrant worker shantytowns primarily serving the sugar industry in the Dominican Republic. Others report higher or comparable rates to the bateyes in areas related to the tourism and sex industries. As in other Caribbean and Latin American countries, reported HIV transmission in the Dominican Republic is predominantly due to unprotected heterosexual sex and the infection rate has been increasing disproportionally among women. The Dominican Republic represents two thirds of the Hispaniola island; the western one third is occupied by Haiti, the nation with the highest HIV prevalence in the western hemisphere. Although data is limited, it shows important differences in seroprevalence and incidence between these two countries, but commonalities such as poverty, gender inequalities, and stigma appear to be pivotal factors driving the epidemic. This article will discuss these and other factors that may contribute to the HIV epidemic in the Dominican Republic, as well as highlight the gaps in the literature and provide recommendations to guide further work in this area, particularly in the role of governance in sustainable HIV prevention.

  4. Incidence, clinical presentation, and outcome of progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy in HIV-infected patients during the highly active antiretroviral therapy era: a nationwide cohort study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Engsig, Frederik Neess; Hansen, Ann-Brit Eg; Omland, Lars Haukali

    2009-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection predisposes to progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (PML). Here, we describe the incidence, presentation, and prognosis of PML in HIV-1-infected patients during the period before highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) (1995...... at presentation and follow-up. RESULTS: Among 4,649 patients, we identified 47 patients with PML. The incidence rates were 3.3, 1.8, and 1.3 cases per 1000 person-years at risk in 1995-1996, 1997-1999, and 2000-2006, respectively. The risk of PML was significantly associated with low CD4(+) cell count, and 47......% of cases were diagnosed by means of brain biopsy or polymerase chain reaction analysis for JC virus. The predominant neurological symptoms at presentation were coordination disturbance, cognitive defects, and limb paresis. Thirty-five patients died; the median survival time was 0.4 years (95% confidence...

  5. The estimated incidence of induced abortion in Kenya: a cross-sectional study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohamed, Shukri F; Izugbara, Chimaraoke; Moore, Ann M; Mutua, Michael; Kimani-Murage, Elizabeth W; Ziraba, Abdhalah K; Bankole, Akinrinola; Singh, Susheela D; Egesa, Caroline

    2015-08-21

    The recently promulgated 2010 constitution of Kenya permits abortion when the life or health of the woman is in danger. Yet broad uncertainty remains about the interpretation of the law. Unsafe abortion remains a leading cause of maternal morbidity and mortality in Kenya. The current study aimed to determine the incidence of induced abortion in Kenya in 2012. The incidence of induced abortion in Kenya in 2012 was estimated using the Abortion Incidence Complications Methodology (AICM) along with the Prospective Morbidity Survey (PMS). Data were collected through three surveys, (i) Health Facilities Survey (HFS), (ii) Prospective Morbidity Survey (PMS), and (iii) Health Professionals Survey (HPS). A total of 328 facilities participated in the HFS, 326 participated in the PMS, and 124 key informants participated in the HPS. Abortion numbers, rates, ratios and unintended pregnancy rates were calculated for Kenya as a whole and for five geographical regions. In 2012, an estimated 464,000 induced abortions occurred in Kenya. This translates into an abortion rate of 48 per 1,000 women aged 15-49, and an abortion ratio of 30 per 100 live births. About 120,000 women received care for complications of induced abortion in health facilities. About half (49%) of all pregnancies in Kenya were unintended and 41% of unintended pregnancies ended in an abortion. This study provides the first nationally-representative estimates of the incidence of induced abortion in Kenya. An urgent need exists for improving facilities' capacity to provide safe abortion care to the fullest extent of the law. All efforts should be made to address underlying factors to reduce risk of unsafe abortion.

  6. Incidence of CMV co-infection in HIV-positive women and their neonates in a tertiary referral centre: a cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reitter, A; Buxmann, H; Haberl, A E; Schlösser, R; Kreibich, M; Keppler, O T; Berger, A

    2016-02-01

    Co-infection with CMV in HIV-positive pregnant women is associated with perinatal mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) of both viruses. This retrospective study reports on the incidence of maternal and neonatal CMV (presence of anti-CMV IgG and IgM, CMV DNA PCR and/or CMV virus isolation) in high-risk pregnancies due to maternal HIV infection, MTCT of HIV and/or CMV. One hundred and eleven maternal samples and 75 matched neonatal samples were available for HIV and subsequent CMV testing. In this cohort of HIV-positive pregnant women, 96 (86.5 %) serum samples were anti-CMV IgG positive. In nine (9.4 %) of these, anti-CMV IgM was detected, and in none of them a maternal primary CMV infection was suspected. Fifty-seven (51.8 %) maternal serum samples were tested retrospectively by CMV DNA PCR; one sample was positive (0.9 %). All matched neonates were tested for HIV by PCR in the first month of life; HIV transmission was detected in one case. In 74 (67.2 %) of neonates, CMV testing was performed. Sixty-six of these serum samples were tested retrospectively by CMV DNA PCR. Two newborns (2.7 %) showed laboratory markers for CMV infection (one by detection of CMV DNA in plasma, and one by isolation of CMV from a urine sample). In the follow-up, neither of these two showed clinical signs for active CMV disease. We discussed these findings in the light of the national official guidelines. All CMV transmissions occurred due to maternal reinfection or endogenous reactivation. This suggests the success of highly active antiretroviral therapy in preventing MTCT of HIV and CMV disease and highlights the importance of adequate care and follow-up.

  7. HASCAL -- A system for estimating contamination and doses from incidents at worldwide nuclear facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sjoreen, A.L.

    1995-01-01

    The Hazard Assessment System for Consequence Analysis (HASCAL) is being developed to support the analysis of radiological incidents anywhere in the world for the Defense Nuclear Agency (DNA). HASCAL is a component of the Hazard Prediction and Assessment Capability (HPAC), which is a comprehensive nuclear, biological, and chemical hazard effects planning and forecasting modeling system that is being developed by DNA. HASCAL computes best-guess estimates of the consequences of radiological incidents. HASCAL estimates the amount of radioactivity released, its atmospheric transport and deposition, and the resulting radiological doses

  8. Non-infective pulmonary disease in HIV-positive children

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Theron, Salomine; Andronikou, Savvas; George, Reena; Plessis, Jaco du; Hayes, Murray; Mapukata, Ayanda; Goussard, Pierre; Gie, Robert

    2009-01-01

    It is estimated that over 90% of children infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) live in the developing world and particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. Pulmonary disease is the most common clinical feature of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) in infants and children causing the most morbidity and mortality, and is the primary cause of death in 50% of cases. Children with lung disease are surviving progressively longer because of earlier diagnosis and antiretroviral treatment and, therefore, thoracic manifestations have continued to change and unexpected complications are being encountered. It has been reported that 33% of HIV-positive children have chronic changes on chest radiographs by the age of 4 years. Lymphocytic interstitial pneumonitis is common in the paediatric HIV population and is responsible for 30-40% of pulmonary disease. HIV-positive children also have a higher incidence of pulmonary malignancies, including lymphoma and pulmonary Kaposi sarcoma. Immune reconstitution inflammatory syndrome is seen after highly active antiretroviral treatment. Complications of pulmonary infections, aspiration and rarely interstitial pneumonitis are also seen. This review focuses on the imaging findings of non-infective chronic pulmonary disease. (orig.)

  9. The tuberculosis challenge in a rural South African HIV programme

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cooke Graham S

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background South Africa remains the country with the greatest burden of HIV-infected individuals and the second highest estimated TB incidence per capita worldwide. Within South Africa, KwaZulu-Natal has one of the highest rates of TB incidence and an emerging epidemic of drug-resistant tuberculosis. Methods Review of records of consecutive HIV-infected people initiated onto ART between 1st January 2005 and 31st March 2006. Patients were screened for TB at initiation and incident episodes recorded. CD4 counts, viral loads and follow-up status were recorded; data was censored on 5th August 2008. Geographic cluster analysis was performed using spatial scanning. Results 801 patients were initiated. TB prevalence was 25.3%, associated with lower CD4 (AHR 2.61 p = 0.01 for CD4 25 copies/ml (OR 1.75 p = 0.11. A low-risk cluster for incident TB was identified for patients living near the local hospital in the geospatial analysis. Conclusion There is a large burden of TB in this population. Rate of incident TB stabilises at a rate higher than that of the overall population. These data highlight the need for greater research on strategies for active case finding in rural settings and the need to focus on strengthening primary health care.

  10. Human immunodeficiency virus prevalence, incidence, and residual transmission risk in first-time and repeat blood donations in Zimbabwe: implications on blood safety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mapako, Tonderai; Mvere, David A; Chitiyo, McLeod E; Rusakaniko, Simbarashe; Postma, Maarten J; van Hulst, Marinus

    2013-10-01

    National Blood Service Zimbabwe human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) risk management strategy includes screening and discarding of first-time donations, which are collected in blood packs without an anticoagulant (dry pack). To evaluate the impact of discarding first-time donations on blood safety the HIV prevalence, incidence, and residual risk in first-time and repeat donations (wet packs) were compared. Donor data from 2002 to 2010 were retrieved from a centralized national electronic donor database and retrospectively analyzed. Chi-square test was used to compare HIV prevalence with relative risk (RR), and the RR point estimates and 95% confidence interval (CI) are reported. Trend analysis was done using Cochran-Armitage trend test. HIV residual risk estimates were determined using published residual risk estimation models. Over the 9 years the overall HIV prevalence estimates are 1.29% (n = 116,058) and 0.42% (n = 434,695) for first-time and repeat donations, respectively. The overall RR was 3.1 (95% CI, 2.9-3.3; p donations in first-time was 1:7384 (range, 1:11,308-1:5356) and in repeat donors it was 1:5496 (range, 1:9943-1:3347). The significantly high HIV prevalence estimates recorded in first-time over repeat donations is indicative of the effectiveness of the HIV risk management strategy. However, comparable residual transmission risk estimates in first-time and repeat donors point to the need to further review the risk management strategies. Given the potential wastage of valuable resources, future studies should focus on the cost-effectiveness and utility of screening and discarding first-time donations. © 2013 American Association of Blood Banks.

  11. Prospects for HIV control in South Africa: a model-based analysis

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    Leigh F. Johnson

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Background: The goal of virtual elimination of horizontal and mother-to-child HIV transmission in South Africa (SA has been proposed, but there have been few systematic investigations of which interventions are likely to be most critical to reducing HIV incidence. Objective: This study aims to evaluate SA's potential to achieve virtual elimination targets and to identify which interventions will be most critical to achieving HIV incidence reductions. Design: A mathematical model was developed to simulate the population-level impact of different HIV interventions in SA. Probability distributions were specified to represent uncertainty around 32 epidemiological parameters that could be influenced by interventions, and correlation coefficients (r were calculated to assess the sensitivity of the adult HIV incidence rates and mother-to-child transmission rates (2015–2035 to each epidemiological parameter. Results: HIV incidence in SA adults (ages 15–49 is expected to decline from 1.4% in 2011–2012 to 0.29% by 2035 (95% CI: 0.10–0.62%. The parameters most strongly correlated with future adult HIV incidence are the rate of viral suppression after initiating antiretroviral treatment (ART (r=−0.56, the level of condom use in non-marital relationships (r=−0.40, the phase-in of intensified risk-reduction counselling for HIV-positive adults (r=0.29, the uptake of medical male circumcision (r=−0.24 and the phase-in of universal ART eligibility (r=0.22. The paediatric HIV parameters most strongly associated with mother-to-child transmission rates are the relative risk of transmission through breastfeeding when the mother is receiving ART (r=0.70 and the rate of ART initiation during pregnancy (r=−0.16. Conclusions: The virtual elimination target of a 0.1% incidence rate in adults will be difficult to achieve. Interventions that address the infectiousness of patients after ART initiation will be particularly critical to achieving long-term HIV

  12. Using a network-based approach and targeted maximum likelihood estimation to evaluate the effect of adding pre-exposure prophylaxis to an ongoing test-and-treat trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balzer, Laura; Staples, Patrick; Onnela, Jukka-Pekka; DeGruttola, Victor

    2017-04-01

    Several cluster-randomized trials are underway to investigate the implementation and effectiveness of a universal test-and-treat strategy on the HIV epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa. We consider nesting studies of pre-exposure prophylaxis within these trials. Pre-exposure prophylaxis is a general strategy where high-risk HIV- persons take antiretrovirals daily to reduce their risk of infection from exposure to HIV. We address how to target pre-exposure prophylaxis to high-risk groups and how to maximize power to detect the individual and combined effects of universal test-and-treat and pre-exposure prophylaxis strategies. We simulated 1000 trials, each consisting of 32 villages with 200 individuals per village. At baseline, we randomized the universal test-and-treat strategy. Then, after 3 years of follow-up, we considered four strategies for targeting pre-exposure prophylaxis: (1) all HIV- individuals who self-identify as high risk, (2) all HIV- individuals who are identified by their HIV+ partner (serodiscordant couples), (3) highly connected HIV- individuals, and (4) the HIV- contacts of a newly diagnosed HIV+ individual (a ring-based strategy). We explored two possible trial designs, and all villages were followed for a total of 7 years. For each village in a trial, we used a stochastic block model to generate bipartite (male-female) networks and simulated an agent-based epidemic process on these networks. We estimated the individual and combined intervention effects with a novel targeted maximum likelihood estimator, which used cross-validation to data-adaptively select from a pre-specified library the candidate estimator that maximized the efficiency of the analysis. The universal test-and-treat strategy reduced the 3-year cumulative HIV incidence by 4.0% on average. The impact of each pre-exposure prophylaxis strategy on the 4-year cumulative HIV incidence varied by the coverage of the universal test-and-treat strategy with lower coverage resulting in a larger

  13. Predictors of perceived male partner concurrency among women at risk for HIV and STI acquisition in Durban, South Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaffoor, Zakir; Wand, Handan; Street, Renée A; Abbai, Nathlee; Ramjee, Gita

    2016-01-01

    Women in sub-Saharan Africa continue to be at greater risk for HIV acquisition than men. Concurrency, viz. multiple sexual partnerships that overlap over time, has been studied as a possible risk factor for HIV transmission. The aim of this study was to identify predictors of perceived male partner concurrency among sexually active, HIV negative women. Socio-demographic and behavioural data from women enrolled in a biomedical HIV prevention clinical trial were assessed in relation to perceived male partner concurrency using the Chi squared test. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression was performed to assess the independent predictors of perceived male partner concurrency. Kaplan-Meier survival estimates were obtained for HIV and STI incidence in relation to male partner concurrency. A Cox Proportional Hazards model was used to assess the association between perceived male partner concurrency and HIV and STI incidence. The results revealed that 29 % of women reported their male partners to be in concurrent sexual relationships, 22 % reported partners that were not engaging in concurrency, whilst 49 % reported not knowing their partners concurrency status. Older women, having never married, experiencing economic abuse, and women reporting individual concurrency, were found to be significant predictors of perceived male partner concurrency in the studied population. Perceived male partner concurrency was not found to be a significantly associated with incident HIV and STI infections in this analysis. The study provides insight into predictors of perceived male partner concurrency among women at high risk for STI and HIV acquisition. These results may inform the design of behavioural and biomedical interventions, to address the role of multiple sexual partnerships in HIV prevention.

  14. Children Living with HIV-Infected Adults: Estimates for 23 Countries in sub-Saharan Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Short, Susan E; Goldberg, Rachel E

    2015-01-01

    In sub-Saharan Africa many children live in extreme poverty and experience a burden of illness and disease that is disproportionately high. The emergence of HIV and AIDS has only exacerbated long-standing challenges to improving children's health in the region, with recent cohorts experiencing pediatric AIDS and high levels of orphan status, situations which are monitored globally and receive much policy and research attention. Children's health, however, can be affected also by living with HIV-infected adults, through associated exposure to infectious diseases and the diversion of household resources away from them. While long recognized, far less research has focused on characterizing this distinct and vulnerable population of HIV-affected children. Using Demographic and Health Survey data from 23 countries collected between 2003 and 2011, we estimate the percentage of children living in a household with at least one HIV-infected adult. We assess overlaps with orphan status and investigate the relationship between children and the adults who are infected in their households. The population of children living in a household with at least one HIV-infected adult is substantial where HIV prevalence is high; in Southern Africa, the percentage exceeded 10% in all countries and reached as high as 36%. This population is largely distinct from the orphan population. Among children living in households with tested, HIV-infected adults, most live with parents, often mothers, who are infected; nonetheless, in most countries over 20% live in households with at least one infected adult who is not a parent. Until new infections contract significantly, improvements in HIV/AIDS treatment suggest that the population of children living with HIV-infected adults will remain substantial. It is vital to on-going efforts to reduce childhood morbidity and mortality to consider whether current care and outreach sufficiently address the distinct vulnerabilities of these children.

  15. Children Living with HIV-Infected Adults: Estimates for 23 Countries in sub-Saharan Africa.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Susan E Short

    Full Text Available In sub-Saharan Africa many children live in extreme poverty and experience a burden of illness and disease that is disproportionately high. The emergence of HIV and AIDS has only exacerbated long-standing challenges to improving children's health in the region, with recent cohorts experiencing pediatric AIDS and high levels of orphan status, situations which are monitored globally and receive much policy and research attention. Children's health, however, can be affected also by living with HIV-infected adults, through associated exposure to infectious diseases and the diversion of household resources away from them. While long recognized, far less research has focused on characterizing this distinct and vulnerable population of HIV-affected children.Using Demographic and Health Survey data from 23 countries collected between 2003 and 2011, we estimate the percentage of children living in a household with at least one HIV-infected adult. We assess overlaps with orphan status and investigate the relationship between children and the adults who are infected in their households.The population of children living in a household with at least one HIV-infected adult is substantial where HIV prevalence is high; in Southern Africa, the percentage exceeded 10% in all countries and reached as high as 36%. This population is largely distinct from the orphan population. Among children living in households with tested, HIV-infected adults, most live with parents, often mothers, who are infected; nonetheless, in most countries over 20% live in households with at least one infected adult who is not a parent.Until new infections contract significantly, improvements in HIV/AIDS treatment suggest that the population of children living with HIV-infected adults will remain substantial. It is vital to on-going efforts to reduce childhood morbidity and mortality to consider whether current care and outreach sufficiently address the distinct vulnerabilities of these

  16. The potential impact of male circumcision on HIV in Sub-Saharan Africa.

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    Brian G Williams

    2006-07-01

    Full Text Available A randomized controlled trial (RCT has shown that male circumcision (MC reduces sexual transmission of HIV from women to men by 60% (32%-76%; 95% CI offering an intervention of proven efficacy for reducing the sexual spread of HIV. We explore the implications of this finding for the promotion of MC as a public health intervention to control HIV in sub-Saharan Africa.Using dynamical simulation models we consider the impact of MC on the relative prevalence of HIV in men and women and in circumcised and uncircumcised men. Using country level data on HIV prevalence and MC, we estimate the impact of increasing MC coverage on HIV incidence, HIV prevalence, and HIV-related deaths over the next ten, twenty, and thirty years in sub-Saharan Africa. Assuming that full coverage of MC is achieved over the next ten years, we consider three scenarios in which the reduction in transmission is given by the best estimate and the upper and lower 95% confidence limits of the reduction in transmission observed in the RCT. MC could avert 2.0 (1.1-3.8 million new HIV infections and 0.3 (0.1-0.5 million deaths over the next ten years in sub-Saharan Africa. In the ten years after that, it could avert a further 3.7 (1.9-7.5 million new HIV infections and 2.7 (1.5-5.3 million deaths, with about one quarter of all the incident cases prevented and the deaths averted occurring in South Africa. We show that a MC will increase the proportion of infected people who are women from about 52% to 58%; b where there is homogenous mixing but not all men are circumcised, the prevalence of infection in circumcised men is likely to be about 80% of that in uncircumcised men; c MC is equivalent to an intervention, such as a vaccine or increased condom use, that reduces transmission in both directions by 37%.This analysis is based on the result of just one RCT, but if the results of that trial are confirmed we suggest that MC could substantially reduce the burden of HIV in Africa

  17. Association of Pulmonary Tuberculosis and HIV in the Mexican Institute of Social Security, 2006-2014.

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    David Alejandro Cabrera-Gaytán

    Full Text Available Tuberculosis and HIV remain a public health problem in developed countries. The objective of this study was to analyze the incidence trends of pulmonary TB and HIV comorbidity and treatment outcomes according to HIV during the period 2006 to 2014 in the Mexican Institute of Social Security.Analyzed data from this registry including pulmonary tuberculosis patients aged 15 years and older who had been diagnosed during the years 2006 to 2014 in the Mexican Institute of Social Security. The outcomes that we use were incidents rate, failure to treatment and death. Regression models were used to quantify associations between pulmonary tuberculosis and HIV mortality.During the study period, 31,352 patients were registered with pulmonary tuberculosis. The incidence rate observed during 2014 was 11.6 case of PTB per 100,000. The incidence rate for PTB and HIV was 0.345 per 100,000. The PTB incidence rate decreased by 0.07%, differences found in the PTB incidence rate by sex since in women decreased by 5.52% and in man increase by 3.62%. The pulmonary TB with HIV incidence rate decreased by 16.3% during the study period (In women increase 4.81% and in man decrease 21.6%. Analysis of PTB associated with HIV by age groups revealed that the highest incidence rates were observed for the 30 to 44 years old group. Meanwhile, the highest incidence rates of PTB without HIV occurred among the 60 and more years old individuals. We did not find statistically significant differences between treatment failure and PTB patients with HIV and without HIV. The treatment failure was associated with sex and the region of the patient. We found a strong association between HIV and the probability of dying during treatment. Our data suggested that patients suffering from both conditions (PTB and HIV have no difference in the probability of failure of treatment contrary to other reports. Hypotheses to this is adherence to tuberculosis treatment with people living with HIV

  18. Association of Pulmonary Tuberculosis and HIV in the Mexican Institute of Social Security, 2006-2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cabrera-Gaytán, David Alejandro; Niebla-Fuentes, María Del Rosario; Padilla-Velázquez, Rosario; Valle-Alvarado, Gabriel; Arriaga-Nieto, Lumumba; Rojas-Mendoza, Teresita; Rosado-Quiab, Ulises; Grajales-Muñiz, Concepción; Vallejos-Parás, Alfonso

    2016-01-01

    Tuberculosis and HIV remain a public health problem in developed countries. The objective of this study was to analyze the incidence trends of pulmonary TB and HIV comorbidity and treatment outcomes according to HIV during the period 2006 to 2014 in the Mexican Institute of Social Security. Analyzed data from this registry including pulmonary tuberculosis patients aged 15 years and older who had been diagnosed during the years 2006 to 2014 in the Mexican Institute of Social Security. The outcomes that we use were incidents rate, failure to treatment and death. Regression models were used to quantify associations between pulmonary tuberculosis and HIV mortality. During the study period, 31,352 patients were registered with pulmonary tuberculosis. The incidence rate observed during 2014 was 11.6 case of PTB per 100,000. The incidence rate for PTB and HIV was 0.345 per 100,000. The PTB incidence rate decreased by 0.07%, differences found in the PTB incidence rate by sex since in women decreased by 5.52% and in man increase by 3.62%. The pulmonary TB with HIV incidence rate decreased by 16.3% during the study period (In women increase 4.81% and in man decrease 21.6%). Analysis of PTB associated with HIV by age groups revealed that the highest incidence rates were observed for the 30 to 44 years old group. Meanwhile, the highest incidence rates of PTB without HIV occurred among the 60 and more years old individuals. We did not find statistically significant differences between treatment failure and PTB patients with HIV and without HIV. The treatment failure was associated with sex and the region of the patient. We found a strong association between HIV and the probability of dying during treatment. Our data suggested that patients suffering from both conditions (PTB and HIV) have no difference in the probability of failure of treatment contrary to other reports. Hypotheses to this is adherence to tuberculosis treatment with people living with HIV/AIDS, detection of PTB

  19. Prevalence, Recurrence, and Incidence of Current Depressive Symptoms among People Living with HIV in Ontario, Canada

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Choi, Stephanie K Y; Boyle, E.; Cairney, John

    2016-01-01

    ) was 14%. During the five-year follow-up, our multivariable models showed that participants with greater risk of recurrent cases were more likely to feel worried about their housing situation. Participants at risk of developing incident cases were also likely to be younger, gay or bisexual, and unable...... of health in order to enhance the overall well-being of people living with or at risk of HIV. Our findings reinforce the importance of providing effective mental health care and demonstrate the need for long-term support and routine management of depression, particularly for individuals at high risk. © 2016...

  20. Impact of CCR5 Delta32/+ deletion on herpes zoster among HIV-1-infected homosexual men

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Krol, Anneke; Lensen, Ruud; Veenstra, Jan; Prins, Maria; Schuitemaker, Hanneke; Coutinho, Roel A.

    2006-01-01

    The association between the presence of CCR5 Delta32 heterozygosity and incidence of clinical herpes zoster was studied among 296 homosexual men from the Amsterdam cohort study (ACS) infected with human immunodeficiency virus type I (HIV-1) with an estimated date of seroconversion. Of them 63 were

  1. Risk of Cardiovascular Disease in an Aging HIV Population

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Martin-Iguacel, R; Llibre, J M; Friis-Moller, N

    2015-01-01

    With more effective and widespread antiretroviral treatment, the overall incidence of AIDS- or HIV-related death has decreased dramatically. Consequently, as patients are aging, cardiovascular disease (CVD) has emerged as an important cause of morbidity and mortality in the HIV population....... The incidence of CVD overall in HIV is relatively low, but it is approximately 1.5-2-fold higher than that seen in age-matched HIV-uninfected individuals. Multiple factors are believed to explain this excess in risk such as overrepresentation of traditional cardiovascular risk factors (particularly smoking...

  2. Epidemiology of tuberculosis in HIV-infected patients in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dragsted, Ulrik Bak; Bauer, J; Poulsen, S

    1999-01-01

    increased in the younger age groups, indicating more newly infected persons. This study was performed in order to assess the impact of the HIV epidemic and immigration on TB incidence among native Danes. The study was also designed to reveal transmission patterns of TB among HIV-positive patients. Data from......Denmark is an area of low incidence of HIV and tuberculosis (TB). The number of newly reported cases of HIV has been stable during the 1990s, whereas the number of TB cases has doubled in Denmark in the past decade, mainly due to immigration. However, among native Danes the incidence of TB has...... HIV-TB co-infected patients identified in the national registers of TB and AIDS from 1992-95 were collected retrospectively from medical records. Restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) analyses of TB isolates from co-infected patients were compared with all patterns registered...

  3. Incidence and characteristics of sexually transmitted acute hepatitis C virus infection among HIV-positive men who have sex with men in Copenhagen, Denmark during four years (2006-2009): a retrospective cohort study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barfod, Toke S; Omland, Lars Haukali; Katzenstein, Terese L

    2011-01-01

    We determined the incidence of hepatitis C virus among Danish human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive men who have sex with men (MSM) and described their characteristics. We included 871 HIV-positive MSM seen from 1 January 2006 to 31 December 2009 at Rigshospitalet in Copenhagen; drug users...

  4. Pregnancy, contraceptive use, and HIV acquisition in HPTN 039: relevance for HIV prevention trials among African women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reid, Stewart E; Dai, James Y; Wang, Jing; Sichalwe, Bupe N; Akpomiemie, Godspower; Cowan, Frances M; Delany-Moretlwe, Sinead; Baeten, Jared M; Hughes, James P; Wald, Anna; Celum, Connie

    2010-04-01

    Biomedical HIV prevention trials enroll sexually active women at risk of HIV and often discontinue study product during pregnancy. We assessed risk factors for pregnancy and HIV acquisition, and the effect of pregnancy on time off study drug in HIV Prevention Trials Network 039. A total of 1358 HIV negative, herpes simplex virus type 2-seropositive women from South Africa, Zambia, and Zimbabwe were enrolled and followed for up to 18 months. A total of 228 pregnancies occurred; time off study drug due to pregnancy accounted for 4% of woman-years of follow-up among women. Being pregnant was not associated with increased HIV risk (hazard ratio 0.64, 95% confidence interval 0.23-1.80, P = 0.40). However, younger age was associated with increased risk for both pregnancy and HIV. There was no association between condom use as a sole contraceptive and reduced pregnancy incidence; hormonal contraception was not associated with increased HIV risk. Bacterial vaginosis at study entry was associated with increased HIV risk (hazard ratio 2.03, P = 0.02). Pregnancy resulted in only a small amount of woman-time off study drug. Young women are at high risk for HIV and are an appropriate population for HIV prevention trials but also have higher risk of pregnancy. Condom use was not associated with reduced incidence of pregnancy.

  5. Estimated incidence of pertussis in people aged <50 years in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Chi-Chang; Balderston McGuiness, Catherine; Krishnarajah, Girishanthy; Blanchette, Christopher M.; Wang, Yuanyuan; Sun, Kainan; Buck, Philip O.

    2016-01-01

    ABSTRACT The introduction of pertussis vaccination in the United States (US) in the 1940s has greatly reduced its burden. However, the incidence of pertussis is difficult to quantify, as many cases are not laboratory-confirmed or reported, particularly in adults. This study estimated pertussis incidence in a commercially insured US population aged pertussis or cough illness using International Classification of Diseases (ICD-9) codes, a commercial outpatient laboratory database for patients with a pertussis laboratory test, and the Centers for Disease Control influenza surveillance database. US national pertussis incidence was projected using 3 methods: (1) diagnosed pertussis, defined as a claim for pertussis (ICD-9 033.0, 033.9, 484.3) during 2008–2013; (2) based on proxy pertussis predictive logistic regression models; (3) using the fraction of cough illness (ICD-9 033.0, 033.9, 484.3, 786.2, 466.0, 466.1, 487.1) attributed to laboratory-confirmed pertussis, estimated by time series linear regression models. Method 1 gave a projected annual incidence of diagnosed pertussis of 9/100,000, which was highest in those aged pertussis of 649/100,000, approximately 58–93 times higher than method 1 depending on the year. These estimations, which are consistent with considerable underreporting of pertussis in people aged pertussis burden. PMID:27246119

  6. Incidence and risk factors of antiretroviral treatment failure in treatment-naïve HIV-infected patients at Chiang Mai University Hospital, Thailand

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    Background The use of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) has become a standard of care for the treatment of HIV infection. However, cost and resistance to cART are major obstacles for access to treatment especially in resource-limited settings. In this study, we aimed to determine the incidence and risk factors of treatment failure in a cohort of treatment-naïve Thai HIV-infected patients. Methods A retrospective cohort study was conducted among HIV-infected patients initiating their first cART at Chiang Mai University Hospital, Thailand. Results From January 2002 to December 2008, 788 patients were enrolled; 365 were male (46.3%), and the mean age was 37.9 ± 8.6 years. The median baseline CD4 count was 57.7 cells/mm3 (IQR 22, 127). GPO-VIR® (a fixed-dose combination of lamivudine, stavudine, and nevirapine) was the most common prescribed cART (657 patients, 83.4%). Seventy-six patients developed virological failure given the cumulative incidence of 9.6%. The incidence of virological failure was 2.79 (95% CI 2.47, 3.14) cases per 100 person years. Poor adherence was the strongest