Factoring attitudes towards armed conflict risk into selection of protected areas for conservation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hammill, E.; Tulloch, A.I.T.; Possingham, H.P.

2016-01-01

The high incidence of armed conflicts in biodiverse regions poses significant challenges in achieving international conservation targets. Because attitudes towards risk vary, we assessed different strategies for protected area planning that reflected alternative attitudes towards the risk of arme...... that achieving biodiversity targets in volatile regions will require greater initial investment and benefit from fine-resolution estimates of conflict risk.......The high incidence of armed conflicts in biodiverse regions poses significant challenges in achieving international conservation targets. Because attitudes towards risk vary, we assessed different strategies for protected area planning that reflected alternative attitudes towards the risk of armed...... conflicts. We find that ignoring conflict risk will deliver the lowest return on investment. Opting to completely avoid conflict-prone areas offers limited improvements and could lead to species receiving no protection. Accounting for conflict by protecting additional areas to offset the impacts of armed...

Factoring attitudes towards armed conflict risk into selection of protected areas for conservation.

Science.gov (United States)

Hammill, E; Tulloch, A I T; Possingham, H P; Strange, N; Wilson, K A

2016-03-30

The high incidence of armed conflicts in biodiverse regions poses significant challenges in achieving international conservation targets. Because attitudes towards risk vary, we assessed different strategies for protected area planning that reflected alternative attitudes towards the risk of armed conflicts. We find that ignoring conflict risk will deliver the lowest return on investment. Opting to completely avoid conflict-prone areas offers limited improvements and could lead to species receiving no protection. Accounting for conflict by protecting additional areas to offset the impacts of armed conflicts would not only increase the return on investment (an effect that is enhanced when high-risk areas are excluded) but also increase upfront conservation costs. Our results also demonstrate that fine-scale estimations of conflict risk could enhance the cost-effectiveness of investments. We conclude that achieving biodiversity targets in volatile regions will require greater initial investment and benefit from fine-resolution estimates of conflict risk.

Geographical Analysis for Detecting High-Risk Areas for Bovine/Human Rabies Transmitted by the Common Hematophagous Bat in the Amazon Region, Brazil.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fernanda A G de Andrade

Full Text Available The common hematophagous bat, Desmodus rotundus, is one of the main wild reservoirs of rabies virus in several regions in Latin America. New production practices and changed land use have provided environmental features that have been very favorable for D. rotundus bat populations, making this species the main transmitter of rabies in the cycle that involves humans and herbivores. In the Amazon region, these features include a mosaic of environmental, social, and economic components, which together creates areas with different levels of risk for human and bovine infections, as presented in this work in the eastern Brazilian Amazon.We geo-referenced a total of 175 cases of rabies, of which 88% occurred in bovines and 12% in humans, respectively, and related these cases to a number of different geographical and biological variables. The spatial distribution was analyzed using the Kernel function, while the association with independent variables was assessed using a multi-criterion Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP technique.The spatiotemporal analysis of the occurrence of rabies in bovines and humans found reduction in the number of cases in the eastern state of Pará, where no more cases were recorded in humans, whereas high infection rates were recorded in bovines in the northeastern part of the state, and low rates in the southeast. The areas of highest risk for bovine rabies are found in the proximity of rivers and highways. In the case of human rabies, the highest concentration of high-risk areas was found where the highway network coincides with high densities of rural and indigenous populations.The high-risk areas for human and bovine rabies are patchily distributed, and related to extensive deforested areas, large herds of cattle, and the presence of highways. These findings provide an important database for the generation of epidemiological models that could support the development of effective prevention measures and controls.

Generating local scale land use/cover change scenarios: case studies of high-risk mountain areas

Science.gov (United States)

Malek, Žiga; Glade, Thomas; Boerboom, Luc

2014-05-01

The relationship between land use/cover changes and consequences to human well-being is well acknowledged and has led to higher interest of both researchers and decision makers in driving forces and consequences of such changes. For example, removal of natural vegetation cover or urban expansion resulting in new elements at risk can increase hydro-meteorological risk. This is why it is necessary to study how the land use/cover could evolve in the future. Emphasis should especially be given to areas experiencing, or expecting, high rates of socio-economic change. A suitable approach to address these changes is scenario development; it offers exploring possible futures and the corresponding environmental consequences, and aids decision-making, as it enables to analyse possible options. Scenarios provide a creative methodology to depict possible futures, resulting from existing decisions, based on different assumptions of future socio-economic development. They have been used in various disciplines and on various scales, such as flood risk and soil erosion. Several studies have simulated future scenarios of land use/cover changes at a very high success rate, however usually these approaches are tailor made for specific case study areas and fit to available data. This study presents a multi-step scenario generation framework, which can be transferable to other local scale case study areas, taking into account the case study specific consequences of land use/cover changes. Through the use of experts' and decision-makers' knowledge, we aimed to develop a framework with the following characteristics: (1) it enables development of scenarios that are plausible, (2) it can overcome data inaccessibility, (3) it can address intangible and external driving forces of land use/cover change, and (4) it ensures transferability to other local scale case study areas with different land use/cover change processes and consequences. To achieve this, a set of different methods is applied

Simulating high spatial resolution high severity burned area in Sierra Nevada forests for California Spotted Owl habitat climate change risk assessment and management.

Science.gov (United States)

Keyser, A.; Westerling, A. L.; Jones, G.; Peery, M. Z.

2017-12-01

Sierra Nevada forests have experienced an increase in very large fires with significant areas of high burn severity, such as the Rim (2013) and King (2014) fires, that have impacted habitat of endangered species such as the California spotted owl. In order to support land manager forest management planning and risk assessment activities, we used historical wildfire histories from the Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity project and gridded hydroclimate and land surface characteristics data to develope statistical models to simulate the frequency, location and extent of high severity burned area in Sierra Nevada forest wildfires as functions of climate and land surface characteristics. We define high severity here as BA90 area: the area comprising patches with ninety percent or more basal area killed within a larger fire. We developed a system of statistical models to characterize the probability of large fire occurrence, the probability of significant BA90 area present given a large fire, and the total extent of BA90 area in a fire on a 1/16 degree lat/lon grid over the Sierra Nevada. Repeated draws from binomial and generalized pareto distributions using these probabilities generated a library of simulated histories of high severity fire for a range of near (50 yr) future climate and fuels management scenarios. Fuels management scenarios were provided by USFS Region 5. Simulated BA90 area was then downscaled to 30 m resolution using a statistical model we developed using Random Forest techniques to estimate the probability of adjacent 30m pixels burning with ninety percent basal kill as a function of fire size and vegetation and topographic features. The result is a library of simulated high resolution maps of BA90 burned areas for a range of climate and fuels management scenarios with which we estimated conditional probabilities of owl nesting sites being impacted by high severity wildfire.

Antarctica’s Protected Areas Are Inadequate, Unrepresentative, and at Risk

Science.gov (United States)

Shaw, Justine D.; Terauds, Aleks; Riddle, Martin J.; Possingham, Hugh P.; Chown, Steven L.

2014-01-01

Antarctica is widely regarded as one of the planet's last true wildernesses, insulated from threat by its remoteness and declaration as a natural reserve dedicated to peace and science. However, rapidly growing human activity is accelerating threats to biodiversity. We determined how well the existing protected-area system represents terrestrial biodiversity and assessed the risk to protected areas from biological invasions, the region's most significant conservation threat. We found that Antarctica is one of the planet's least protected regions, with only 1.5% of its ice-free area formally designated as specially protected areas. Five of the distinct ice-free ecoregions have no specially designated areas for the protection of biodiversity. Every one of the 55 designated areas that protect Antarctica's biodiversity lies closer to sites of high human activity than expected by chance, and seven lie in high-risk areas for biological invasions. By any measure, including Aichi Target 11 under the Convention on Biological Diversity, Antarctic biodiversity is poorly protected by reserves, and those reserves are threatened. PMID:24936869

Flood Hazard Areas - High Risk

Data.gov (United States)

Department of Homeland Security — The S_Fld_Haz_Ar table contains information about the flood hazards within the study area. A spatial file with locational information also corresponds with this data...

Risk factors for fetal anaemia in a malarious area of Malawi

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Brabin, B. J.; Kalanda, B. F.; Verhoeff, F. H.; Chimsuku, L. H.; Broadhead, R. L.

2004-01-01

The prevalence of infants born with low cord haemoglobin (fetal anaemia) is high in areas where malaria and iron deficiency anaemia in pregnancy are common. The objective of the present study was to determine risk factors for fetal anaemia in an area of high malaria transmission in southern Malawi.

Managing Risk Areas in Software Development Offshoring: A CMMI Level 5 Case

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Persson, John Stouby; Schlichter, Bjarne Rerup

2015-01-01

Software companies are increasingly offshoring development to countries with high expertise at lower cost. Offshoring involves particular risk areas that if ignored increase the likelihood of failure. However, the offshoring client’s maturity level may influence the management of these risk areas....... Against this backdrop, we present an interpretive case study of how managers perceive and mitigate the risk areas in software development offshoring with a mature CMMI level 5 (Capability Maturity Model, Integrated) software company as the client. We find that managers perceive and mitigate most...

InSAR deformation monitoring of high risk landslides

Science.gov (United States)

Singhroy, V.; Li, J.

2013-05-01

During the past year there were at least twenty five media reports of landslides and seismic activities some fatal, occurring in various areas in Canada. These high risk geohazards sites requires high resolution monitoring both spatially and temporally for mitigation purposes, since they are near populated areas and energy, transportation and communication corridors. High resolution air photos, lidar and satellite images are quite common in areas where the landslides can be fatal. Radar interferometry (InSAR) techniques using images from several radar satellites are increasingly being used in slope stability assessment. This presentation provides examples of using high-resolution (1-3m) frequent revisits InSAR techniques from RADARSAT 2 and TerraSAR X to monitor several types of high-risk landslides affecting transportation and energy corridors and populated areas. We have analyses over 200 high resolution InSAR images over a three year period on geologically different landslides. The high-resolution InSAR images are effective in characterizing differential motion within these low velocity landslides. The low velocity landslides become high risk during the active wet spring periods. The wet soils are poor coherent targets and corner reflectors provide an effective means of InSAR monitoring the slope activities.

Everyday life innovation potential: when technology has to make sense. Citizens living in high-risk areas for health, using health-promoting technologies

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Madsen, Jacob Østergaard

2014-01-01

) to contribute, along with other health professionals, in dealing with the problem of inequality in health. In this study health promoting technologies for adult citizens living in high risk areas of health, is chosen as one particular area of interest for occupational therapists within the field of health...

Simulation of high consequence areas for gas pipelines

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Orlando Díaz-Parra

2018-01-01

Full Text Available The gas pipeline is used for the transport of natural gas at a great distance. Risks derived from the handling of a combustible material transported under high pressure, by pipelines that pass close to where people live, makes it necessary to adopt prevention, mitigation and control measures to reduce the effect in case of ignition of a gas leak. This work shows the development of a new mathematical model to determine areas of high consequence and their application, using widely available and easy to use software, such as Google Earth and Excel, to determine and visualize the area up to which the level of radiation can affect the integrity of people and buildings. The model takes into account the pressure drop into the gas pipeline from the compression station, the gas leakage rate and possible forms of gas ignition. This development is an alternative to the use of specialized software and highly trained personnel. The simulation is applied to a traced of the Miraflores-Tunja gas pipeline, using a macro developed in Excel to determine the impact area and compare it with the coordinates of the vulnerable areas. The zones where these areas intersect are constituted in high consequence areas and are identified along with the sections of the pipeline that affect them, to provide the operator with a risk analysis tool for the determination and visualization of the gas pipeline and its environment.

Space-Time Analysis to Identify Areas at Risk of Mortality from Cardiovascular Disease

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Poliany C. O. Rodrigues

2015-01-01

Full Text Available This study aimed at identifying areas that were at risk of mortality due to cardiovascular disease in residents aged 45 years or older of the cities of Cuiabá and Várzea Grande between 2009 and 2011. We conducted an ecological study of mortality rates related to cardiovascular disease. Mortality rates were calculated for each census tract by the Local Empirical Bayes estimator. High- and low-risk clusters were identified by retrospective space-time scans for each year using the Poisson probability model. We defined the year and month as the temporal analysis unit and the census tracts as the spatial analysis units adjusted by age and sex. The Mann-Whitney U test was used to compare the socioeconomic and environmental variables by risk classification. High-risk clusters showed higher income ratios than low-risk clusters, as did temperature range and atmospheric particulate matter. Low-risk clusters showed higher humidity than high-risk clusters. The Eastern region of Várzea Grande and the central region of Cuiabá were identified as areas at risk of mortality due to cardiovascular disease in individuals aged 45 years or older. High mortality risk was associated with socioeconomic and environmental factors. More high-risk clusters were observed at the end of the dry season.

A Probability Co-Kriging Model to Account for Reporting Bias and Recognize Areas at High Risk for Zebra Mussels and Eurasian Watermilfoil Invasions in Minnesota

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Kaushi S. T. Kanankege

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Zebra mussels (ZMs (Dreissena polymorpha and Eurasian watermilfoil (EWM (Myriophyllum spicatum are aggressive aquatic invasive species posing a conservation burden on Minnesota. Recognizing areas at high risk for invasion is a prerequisite for the implementation of risk-based prevention and mitigation management strategies. The early detection of invasion has been challenging, due in part to the imperfect observation process of invasions including the absence of a surveillance program, reliance on public reporting, and limited resource availability, which results in reporting bias. To predict the areas at high risk for invasions, while accounting for underreporting, we combined network analysis and probability co-kriging to estimate the risk of ZM and EWM invasions. We used network analysis to generate a waterbody-specific variable representing boater traffic, a known high risk activity for human-mediated transportation of invasive species. In addition, co-kriging was used to estimate the probability of species introduction, using waterbody-specific variables. A co-kriging model containing distance to the nearest ZM infested location, boater traffic, and road access was used to recognize the areas at high risk for ZM invasions (AUC = 0.78. The EWM co-kriging model included distance to the nearest EWM infested location, boater traffic, and connectivity to infested waterbodies (AUC = 0.76. Results suggested that, by 2015, nearly 20% of the waterbodies in Minnesota were at high risk of ZM (12.45% or EWM (12.43% invasions, whereas only 125/18,411 (0.67% and 304/18,411 (1.65% are currently infested, respectively. Prediction methods presented here can support decisions related to solving the problems of imperfect detection, which subsequently improve the early detection of biological invasions.

A Probability Co-Kriging Model to Account for Reporting Bias and Recognize Areas at High Risk for Zebra Mussels and Eurasian Watermilfoil Invasions in Minnesota.

Science.gov (United States)

Kanankege, Kaushi S T; Alkhamis, Moh A; Phelps, Nicholas B D; Perez, Andres M

2017-01-01

Zebra mussels (ZMs) ( Dreissena polymorpha ) and Eurasian watermilfoil (EWM) ( Myriophyllum spicatum ) are aggressive aquatic invasive species posing a conservation burden on Minnesota. Recognizing areas at high risk for invasion is a prerequisite for the implementation of risk-based prevention and mitigation management strategies. The early detection of invasion has been challenging, due in part to the imperfect observation process of invasions including the absence of a surveillance program, reliance on public reporting, and limited resource availability, which results in reporting bias. To predict the areas at high risk for invasions, while accounting for underreporting, we combined network analysis and probability co-kriging to estimate the risk of ZM and EWM invasions. We used network analysis to generate a waterbody-specific variable representing boater traffic, a known high risk activity for human-mediated transportation of invasive species. In addition, co-kriging was used to estimate the probability of species introduction, using waterbody-specific variables. A co-kriging model containing distance to the nearest ZM infested location, boater traffic, and road access was used to recognize the areas at high risk for ZM invasions (AUC = 0.78). The EWM co-kriging model included distance to the nearest EWM infested location, boater traffic, and connectivity to infested waterbodies (AUC = 0.76). Results suggested that, by 2015, nearly 20% of the waterbodies in Minnesota were at high risk of ZM (12.45%) or EWM (12.43%) invasions, whereas only 125/18,411 (0.67%) and 304/18,411 (1.65%) are currently infested, respectively. Prediction methods presented here can support decisions related to solving the problems of imperfect detection, which subsequently improve the early detection of biological invasions.

Identification of high risk areas for avian influenza outbreaks in California using disease distribution models.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jaber Belkhiria

Full Text Available The coexistence of different types of poultry operations such as free range and backyard flocks, large commercial indoor farms and live bird markets, as well as the presence of many areas where wild and domestic birds co-exist, make California susceptible to avian influenza outbreaks. The 2014-2015 highly pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI outbreaks affecting California and other states in the United States have underscored the need for solutions to protect the US poultry industry against this devastating disease. We applied disease distribution models to predict where Avian influenza is likely to occur and the risk for HPAI outbreaks is highest. We used observations on the presence of Low Pathogenic Avian influenza virus (LPAI in waterfowl or water samples at 355 locations throughout the state and environmental variables relevant to the disease epidemiology. We used two algorithms, Random Forest and MaxEnt, and two data-sets Presence-Background and Presence-Absence data. The models performed well (AUCc > 0.7 for testing data, particularly those using Presence-Background data (AUCc > 0.85. Spatial predictions were similar between algorithms, but there were large differences between the predictions with Presence-Absence and Presence-Background data. Overall, predictors that contributed most to the models included land cover, distance to coast, and broiler farm density. Models successfully identified several counties as high-to-intermediate risk out of the 8 counties with observed outbreaks during the 2014-2015 HPAI epizootics. This study provides further insights into the spatial epidemiology of AI in California, and the high spatial resolution maps may be useful to guide risk-based surveillance and outreach efforts.

Knowledge and perceptions of polio and polio immunization in polio high-risk areas of Pakistan.

Science.gov (United States)

Habib, Muhammad Atif; Soofi, Sajid Bashir; Ali, Noshad; Hussain, Imtiaz; Tabassum, Farhana; Suhag, Zamir; Anwar, Saeed; Ahmed, Imran; Bhutta, Zulfiqar Ahmed

2017-02-01

Pakistan and Afghanistan remain the only countries where polio is endemic, and Pakistan reports the most cases in the world. Although the rate is lower than in previous years, the situation remains alarming. We conducted a mixed methods study in high-risk areas of Pakistan to identify knowledge, attitudes, and practices of target populations about polio vaccine and its eradication, and to estimate coverage of routine immunization and oral polio vaccine. We surveyed 10,685 households in Karachi, 2522 in Pishin, and 2005 in Bajaur. Some knowledge of polio is universal, but important misconceptions persist. The findings of this study carry strategic importance for program direction and implementation.

A Simple Model to Rank Shellfish Farming Areas Based on the Risk of Disease Introduction and Spread.

Science.gov (United States)

Thrush, M A; Pearce, F M; Gubbins, M J; Oidtmann, B C; Peeler, E J

2017-08-01

The European Union Council Directive 2006/88/EC requires that risk-based surveillance (RBS) for listed aquatic animal diseases is applied to all aquaculture production businesses. The principle behind this is the efficient use of resources directed towards high-risk farm categories, animal types and geographic areas. To achieve this requirement, fish and shellfish farms must be ranked according to their risk of disease introduction and spread. We present a method to risk rank shellfish farming areas based on the risk of disease introduction and spread and demonstrate how the approach was applied in 45 shellfish farming areas in England and Wales. Ten parameters were used to inform the risk model, which were grouped into four risk themes based on related pathways for transmission of pathogens: (i) live animal movement, (ii) transmission via water, (iii) short distance mechanical spread (birds) and (iv) long distance mechanical spread (vessels). Weights (informed by expert knowledge) were applied both to individual parameters and to risk themes for introduction and spread to reflect their relative importance. A spreadsheet model was developed to determine quantitative scores for the risk of pathogen introduction and risk of pathogen spread for each shellfish farming area. These scores were used to independently rank areas for risk of introduction and for risk of spread. Thresholds were set to establish risk categories (low, medium and high) for introduction and spread based on risk scores. Risk categories for introduction and spread for each area were combined to provide overall risk categories to inform a risk-based surveillance programme directed at the area level. Applying the combined risk category designation framework for risk of introduction and spread suggested by European Commission guidance for risk-based surveillance, 4, 10 and 31 areas were classified as high, medium and low risk, respectively. © 2016 Crown copyright.

Radon in the Gulf Coast area: Potential problem or exaggerated risk?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Duex, T.W.

1994-01-01

Indoor air pollution from radon has been identified by the EPA as a serious health problem; estimates indicate that radon is the second leading cause of lung cancer (after smoking) and that high levels of radon may cause as many as 20,000 to 40,000 lung cancer deaths per year in the United States. Studies of the potential risk in the Gulf Coast have been sparse. This report summarizes over 7000 previously unreported radon analyses and relates them to geological information to identify possible problem areas for the Gulf Coast region of Louisiana, Texas, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida. High levels of indoor radon are generally associated with older open-quotes crystallineclose quotes igneous and metamorphic bedrock; thus, most areas of the Gulf Coast are of relatively low risk because they are underlain by Cenozoic sedimentary rocks and unconsolidated deposits. However, some types of sedimentary deposits, such as open-quotes black shaleclose quotes and phosphate-rich rocks, can underlie areas of high risk. According to EPA indoor radon survey results the percentage of houses with screening levels greater than 4 pCi/1 (picocuries per liter) for given states is as follows: Alabama = 0.6%, Louisiana = 0.8%, Mississippi = 2.0%, and Texas = 4.0% (no data available for Florida). The data presented here for the percentage of houses with greater than 4 pCi/1 for given states is as follows: Alabama = 6.1 %, Louisiana = 0.6%, Mississippi = 2.0%, Texas = 1.6%, and Florida = 4.5%. The areas that appear to have the greatest risk are parts of northern Alabama and Mississippi, central Texas, and some areas in Florida

The impact of land use and spatial changes on desertification risk in degraded areas in Thailand

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Saowanee Wijitkosum

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Land use, which relates to land cover, is one of the influential factors associated with desertification risk. A study was conducted on the impact of land use and spatial changes on desertification risk in Huay Sai Royal Development Study Centre in southern Thailand. The study used spatial analysis and the MEDALUS model to investigate the extent of land degradation, land use changes and desertification risk in the study area from 1990 to 2010. The Study examined three groups of factors: soils, climate and human activity to classify the severity of desertification risk. The study findings indicate that most areas (74.4% in the Huay Sai area were at high risk of desertification, and the risk remained high (77.2% in 2010. However, the areas classified as at severe risk of desertification decreased at 4.2% per annum. The study finds that land use changes influenced desertification risk.

REDUCING THE IMPACT OF RADIATION FACTORS IN AREAS WITH HIGH LEVEL OF RISK

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D. A. Zaredinov

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The article is devoted to the modern problems of radioecology. The study reveals the problems of radioecological situation in some regions of the Republic of Uzbekistan. The main attention of the authors is paid to the ecologically hazardous objects in the uranium mining industry. The characteristics of wastes from uranium mining and stages of development of the mining industry are described. The historical background of the accumulation of the wastes in dumps, the ore-bearing rocks, and other off-balance ores is given. The practical experience and directions radio-ecological safety are generalized, achieving improvements of the environmental quality in areas with high risk. In conclusion, the authors recommend carrying out some measures to reduce an impact of the radiation factor on human health and to stabilize the radioecological situation at the studied regions.

Ecologic and Sociodemographic Risk Determinants for Dengue Transmission in Urban Areas in Thailand

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Surachart Koyadun

2012-01-01

Full Text Available This study analyzed the association between household-level ecologic and individual-level sociodemographic determinants and dengue transmission in urban areas of Chachoengsao province, Thailand. The ecologic and sociodemographic variables were examined by univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression. In the ecologic model, dengue risk was related to households situated in the ecotope of residential mixed with commercial and densely populated urban residential areas (RCDENPURA (aOR = 2.23, , high historical dengue risk area (aOR = 2.06, , and presence of household window screens (aOR = 1.62, . In the sociodemographic model, the dengue risk was related to householders aged >45 years (aOR = 3.24, , secondary and higher educational degrees (aOR = 2.33, , household members >4 persons (aOR = 2.01, , and community effort in environmental management by clean-up campaign (aOR = 1.91, . It is possible that the preventive measures were positively correlated with dengue risk because these activities were generally carried out in particular households or communities following dengue experiences or dengue outbreaks. Interestingly, the ecotope of RCDENPURA and high historical dengue risk area appeared to be very good predictors of dengue incidences.

Method for Assessing the Integrated Risk of Soil Pollution in Industrial and Mining Gathering Areas

Science.gov (United States)

Guan, Yang; Shao, Chaofeng; Gu, Qingbao; Ju, Meiting; Zhang, Qian

2015-01-01

Industrial and mining activities are recognized as major sources of soil pollution. This study proposes an index system for evaluating the inherent risk level of polluting factories and introduces an integrated risk assessment method based on human health risk. As a case study, the health risk, polluting factories and integrated risks were analyzed in a typical industrial and mining gathering area in China, namely, Binhai New Area. The spatial distribution of the risk level was determined using a Geographic Information System. The results confirmed the following: (1) Human health risk in the study area is moderate to extreme, with heavy metals posing the greatest threat; (2) Polluting factories pose a moderate to extreme inherent risk in the study area. Such factories are concentrated in industrial and urban areas, but are irregularly distributed and also occupy agricultural land, showing a lack of proper planning and management; (3) The integrated risks of soil are moderate to high in the study area. PMID:26580644

Method for Assessing the Integrated Risk of Soil Pollution in Industrial and Mining Gathering Areas.

Science.gov (United States)

Guan, Yang; Shao, Chaofeng; Gu, Qingbao; Ju, Meiting; Zhang, Qian

2015-11-13

Industrial and mining activities are recognized as major sources of soil pollution. This study proposes an index system for evaluating the inherent risk level of polluting factories and introduces an integrated risk assessment method based on human health risk. As a case study, the health risk, polluting factories and integrated risks were analyzed in a typical industrial and mining gathering area in China, namely, Binhai New Area. The spatial distribution of the risk level was determined using a Geographic Information System. The results confirmed the following: (1) Human health risk in the study area is moderate to extreme, with heavy metals posing the greatest threat; (2) Polluting factories pose a moderate to extreme inherent risk in the study area. Such factories are concentrated in industrial and urban areas, but are irregularly distributed and also occupy agricultural land, showing a lack of proper planning and management; (3) The integrated risks of soil are moderate to high in the study area.

Identifying and evaluating high risk areas and challenges on marine drilling riser system in relation to deepwater problems

OpenAIRE

Iversen, Alexander

2012-01-01

Master's thesis in Offshore technology The main concerns during drilling operations are riser integrity and maintaining well control. This thesis has mainly been focusing on the problems and challenges faced with the marine riser system to illuminate high risk areas related to riser integrity. A marine riser system consists generally of four main elements; the upper marine riser package, riser joints, lower marine riser package, and the blowout preventer, each playing an important par...

Cortical surface area reduction in identification of subjects at high risk for post-traumatic stress disorder: A pilot study.

Science.gov (United States)

Hu, Hao; Sun, Yawen; Su, Shanshan; Wang, Yao; Qiu, Yongming; Yang, Xi; Zhou, Yan; Xiao, Zeping; Wang, Zhen

2018-01-01

Victims of motor vehicle accidents often develop post-traumatic stress disorder, which causes significant social function loss. For the difficulty in treating post-traumatic stress disorder, identification of subjects at high risk for post-traumatic stress disorder is essential for providing possible intervention. This paper aims to examine the cortical structural traits related to susceptibility to post-traumatic stress disorder. To address this issue, we performed structural magnetic resonance imaging study in motor vehicle accident victims within 48 hours from the accidents. A total of 70 victims, available for both clinical and magnetic resonance imaging data, enrolled in our study. Upon completion of 6-month follow-up, 29 of them developed post-traumatic stress disorder, while 41 of them didn't. At baseline, voxelwise comparisons of cortical thickness, cortical area and cortical volume were conducted between post-traumatic stress disorder group and trauma control group. As expected, several reduced cortical volume within frontal-temporal loop were observed in post-traumatic stress disorder. For cortical thickness, no between-group differences were observed. There were three clusters in left hemisphere and one cluster in right hemisphere showing decreased cortical area in post-traumatic stress disorder patients, compared with trauma controls. Peak voxels of the three clusters in left hemisphere were separately located in superior parietal cortex, insula and rostral anterior cingulate cortex. The finding of reduced surface area of left insula and left rostral anterior cingulate cortex suggests that shrinked surface area in motor vehicle accident victims could act as potential biomarker of subjects at high risk for post-traumatic stress disorder.

Life-Style Habits in a High-Risk Area for Upper Gastrointestinal Cancers: a Population-Based Study from Shanxi, China.

Science.gov (United States)

Cheng, Yi-Kun; Yao, Shang-Man; Xu, Yi-Ran; Niu, Run-Gui

2016-01-01

Cancer is a burden on humanity and ranks as a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in China. Shanxi province has its unique cancer patterns and the burden is increasing. In this study, we aimed to assess the pattern of dietary habits and life-style in Shanxi, a high-risk area for upper gastrointestinal cancers in China and further evaluate the trends in cancer incidence and mortality based on registered data. Data on lifestyle, diet, physical activity were obtained from the household health survey at Zhongyang from 2013 to 2015. Cancer diagnoses were reported to Shanxi Center for Disease Control and Prevention (SCDCP). Population-based cancer incidence data and mortality data of 2012 were collected from the SCDCP. All incidence and death rates were expressed per 100,000 populations. Univariate analysis was performed using the Chi-squared test or Fisherandapos;s exact test. Overall, deficiencies in fresh fruits and vegetable food, and intake of hot food, salted food, or pickled food are serious problems in Shanxi, especially in rural areas. Upper gastrointestinal cancers were the most commonly diagnosed cancers, and the incidence in rural areas is higher than those in urban areas. Cervical cancer is the most common cancer for females. Moreover, the agespecific incidence exhibited an increased trend before 40 years old. Consistent with the previous literature, our epidemiological investigation results suggest that lifestyle, nutrition deficient, and infections were major risk factors for upper gastrointestinal cancers or cervical cancer in Shanxi. Facing a serious situation, we further explored defensible recommendations for the general public in order to promote changes in environments that support healthful eating and physical activity habits, to reduce cancer risk. Our results present the current cancer trends in Shanxi and its related etiologic risk factors and provide a theoretical basis to guide public health efforts to prevent and control cancers in the

Elucidating the underlying causes of oral cancer through spatial clustering in high-risk areas of Taiwan with a distinct gender ratio of incidence

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Chi-Ting Chiang

2010-05-01

Full Text Available This study aimed to elucidate whether or not high-risk clusters of oral cancer (OC incidence spatially correlate with the prevalence rates of betel quid chewing (BQC and cigarette smoking (CS in Taiwan. The spatial autocorrelation and potential clusters of OC incidence among the 307 townships and heavy metal content of soil throughout Taiwan were identified using the Anselin’s local Moran test. Additionally, the spatial correlations among the incidence of OC, the prevalence of BQC and CS and heavy metal content of soil were determined based on a comparison of spatial clusters. High-risk OC (Moran’s I = 0.638, P <0.001 clusters were located in central and eastern Taiwan, while “hot spots” of BQC and CS prevalence were located mainly in eastern Taiwan. The distributions of BQC and CS lifestyle factors (P <0.001 were spatially autocorrelated. The “hot spots” of OC largely coincided with the “hot spots” of BQC, except for the Changhua and Yunlin counties, which are located in central Taiwan. However, high soil contents of nickel and chromium (P <0.001 in central Taiwan also coincided with the high-risk areas of OC incidence. In particular, Changhua county has incurred several decades of serious heavy-metal pollution, with inhabitants living in polluted areas having high-risk exposure to these metals. Results of this study suggest that, in addition to BQC and CS, anthropogenic pollution may profoundly impact the complexity of OC aetiology in central Taiwan.

Identifying areas at risk of low birth weight using spatial epidemiology: A small area surveillance study.

Science.gov (United States)

Insaf, Tabassum Z; Talbot, Thomas

2016-07-01

To assess the geographic distribution of Low Birth Weight (LBW) in New York State among singleton births using a spatial regression approach in order to identify priority areas for public health actions. LBW was defined as birth weight less than 2500g. Geocoded data from 562,586 birth certificates in New York State (years 2008-2012) were merged with 2010 census data at the tract level. To provide stable estimates and maintain confidentiality, data were aggregated to yield 1268 areas of analysis. LBW prevalence among singleton births was related with area-level behavioral, socioeconomic and demographic characteristics using a Poisson mixed effects spatial error regression model. Observed low birth weight showed statistically significant auto-correlation in our study area (Moran's I 0.16 p value 0.0005). After over-dispersion correction and accounting for fixed effects for selected social determinants, spatial autocorrelation was fully accounted for (Moran's I-0.007 p value 0.241). The proportion of LBW was higher in areas with larger Hispanic or Black populations and high smoking prevalence. Smoothed maps with predicted prevalence were developed to identify areas at high risk of LBW. Spatial patterns of residual variation were analyzed to identify unique risk factors. Neighborhood racial composition contributes to disparities in LBW prevalence beyond differences in behavioral and socioeconomic factors. Small-area analyses of LBW can identify areas for targeted interventions and display unique local patterns that should be accounted for in prevention strategies. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Migration and risk: net migration in marginal ecosystems and hazardous areas

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

De Sherbinin, Alex; Levy, Marc; Adamo, Susana; MacManus, Kytt; Yetman, Greg; Mara, Valentina; Razafindrazay, Liana; Aichele, Cody; Pistolesi, Linda; Goodrich, Benjamin; Srebotnjak, Tanja

2012-01-01

The potential for altered ecosystems and extreme weather events in the context of climate change has raised questions concerning the role that migration plays in either increasing or reducing risks to society. Using modeled data on net migration over three decades from 1970 to 2000, we identify sensitive ecosystems and regions at high risk of climate hazards that have seen high levels of net in-migration and out-migration over the time period. This paper provides a literature review on migration related to ecosystems, briefly describes the methodology used to develop the estimates of net migration, then uses those data to describe the patterns of net migration for various ecosystems and high risk regions. The study finds that negative net migration generally occurs over large areas, reflecting its largely rural character, whereas areas of positive net migration are typically smaller, reflecting its largely urban character. The countries with largest population such as China and India tend to drive global results for all the ecosystems found in those countries. Results suggest that from 1970 to 2000, migrants in developing countries have tended to move out of marginal dryland and mountain ecosystems and out of drought-prone areas, and have moved towards coastal ecosystems and areas that are prone to floods and cyclones. For North America results are reversed for dryland and mountain ecosystems, which saw large net influxes of population in the period of record. Uncertainties and potential sources of error in these estimates are addressed. (letter)

Opportunities for Skin Cancer Prevention Education among Individuals Attending a Community Skin Cancer Screening in a High-Risk Catchment Area.

Science.gov (United States)

Parsons, Bridget Grahmann; Gren, Lisa H; Simonsen, Sara E; Harding, Garrett; Grossman, Douglas; Wu, Yelena P

2018-04-01

Despite the highly preventable nature of skin cancer, it remains the most commonly diagnosed form of cancer in the United States. Recommendations for a complete skin cancer prevention regimen include engaging in photoprotection (e.g., sunscreen use), avoiding skin cancer risk behaviors (e.g., tanning), and receiving total body skin exams from a health care provider. The current study examined reported engagement in these behaviors among participants attending a community skin cancer screening (N = 319) in a high-risk catchment area to assess the need for increased health education on skin cancer prevention. Participants' responses indicate a history of suboptimal avoidance of skin cancer risk behaviors. Over half of participants (52%) reported four or more blistering sunburns before age 20, and 46% reported indoor tanning at least one during their lifetime. There is a need among this population for education regarding a complete skin cancer prevention regimen, which could improve adherence to photoprotection and avoidance of skin cancer risk behaviors, thereby reducing morbidity and mortality due to skin cancer.

Ecologic and Sociodemographic Risk Determinants for Dengue Transmission in Urban Areas in Thailand

Science.gov (United States)

Koyadun, Surachart; Butraporn, Piyarat; Kittayapong, Pattamaporn

2012-01-01

This study analyzed the association between household-level ecologic and individual-level sociodemographic determinants and dengue transmission in urban areas of Chachoengsao province, Thailand. The ecologic and sociodemographic variables were examined by univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression. In the ecologic model, dengue risk was related to households situated in the ecotope of residential mixed with commercial and densely populated urban residential areas (RCDENPURA) (aOR = 2.23, P = 0.009), high historical dengue risk area (aOR = 2.06, P 45 years (aOR = 3.24, P = 0.003), secondary and higher educational degrees (aOR = 2.33, P = 0.013), household members >4 persons (aOR = 2.01, P = 0.02), and community effort in environmental management by clean-up campaign (aOR = 1.91, P = 0.035). It is possible that the preventive measures were positively correlated with dengue risk because these activities were generally carried out in particular households or communities following dengue experiences or dengue outbreaks. Interestingly, the ecotope of RCDENPURA and high historical dengue risk area appeared to be very good predictors of dengue incidences. PMID:23056042

Diabetes prevalence and its risk factors in rural area of Tamil Nadu

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Gupta Sanjay

2010-01-01

Full Text Available Objectives: To estimate the usefulness of the Indian diabetes risk score for detecting undiagnosed diabetes in the rural area of Tamil Nadu. Materials and Methods: The present study was conducted in the field practice area of rural health centers (Chunampett and Annechikuppam, Tamil Nadu, covering a population of 35000 from February to March 2008 by using a predesigned and pretested protocol to find out the prevalence and the risk of diabetes mellitus in general population by using Indian diabetes risk score. Results: 1936 respondents comprising 1167 (60.27% females and 769 (39.73% males were studied. Majority 1203 (62.50% were Hindus. 1220 (63.% had studied up to higher secondary. 1200 (62% belonged to lower and lower-middle socio-economic class. A large number of the subjects 948 (50% were below 35 years of age. Most of the respondents 1411 (73% indulged in mild to moderate physical activity. 1715 (87.91% had no family history of diabetes mellitus. 750 (39.64% individuals were in the overweight category (>25 BMI. Out of these overweight persons, 64% had high diabetic risk score. It is observed that chances of high diabetic score increase with the increase in BMI. Prevalence of diabetes in studied population was 5.99%; out of these, 56% known cases of diabetes mellitus had high (>60 IDRS. Co-relation between BMI and IDRS shows that, if BMI increases from less than 18.50 to more than 30, chances of high risk for developing diabetes mellitus also significantly increase. Conclusion: This study estimates the usefulness of simplified Indian diabetes risk score for identifying undiagnosed high risk diabetic subjects in India. This simplified diabetes risk score has categorized the risk factors based on their severity. Use of the IDRS can make mass screening for undiagnosed diabetes in India more cost effective.

A statistical approach to rank multiple priorities in Environmental Epidemiology: an example from high-risk areas in Sardinia, Italy

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Dolores Catelan

2008-11-01

Full Text Available In Environmental Epidemiology, long lists of relative risk estimates from exposed populations are compared to a reference to scrutinize the dataset for extremes. Here, inference on disease profiles for given areas, or for fixed disease population signatures, are of interest and summaries can be obtained averaging over areas or diseases. We have developed a multivariate hierarchical Bayesian approach to estimate posterior rank distributions and we show how to produce league tables of ranks with credibility intervals useful to address the above mentioned inferential problems. Applying the procedure to a real dataset from the report “Environment and Health in Sardinia (Italy” we selected 18 areas characterized by high environmental pressure for industrial, mining or military activities investigated for 29 causes of deaths among male residents. Ranking diseases highlighted the increased burdens of neoplastic (cancerous, and non-neoplastic respiratory diseases in the heavily polluted area of Portoscuso. The averaged ranks by disease over areas showed lung cancer among the three highest positions.

Earthquake Risk Mitigation in the Tokyo Metropolitan area

Science.gov (United States)

Hirata, N.; Sakai, S.; Kasahara, K.; Nakagawa, S.; Nanjo, K.; Panayotopoulos, Y.; Tsuruoka, H.

2010-12-01

Seismic disaster risk mitigation in urban areas constitutes a challenge through collaboration of scientific, engineering, and social-science fields. Examples of collaborative efforts include research on detailed plate structure with identification of all significant faults, developing dense seismic networks; strong ground motion prediction, which uses information on near-surface seismic site effects and fault models; earthquake resistant and proof structures; and cross-discipline infrastructure for effective risk mitigation just after catastrophic events. Risk mitigation strategy for the next greater earthquake caused by the Philippine Sea plate (PSP) subducting beneath the Tokyo metropolitan area is of major concern because it caused past mega-thrust earthquakes, such as the 1703 Genroku earthquake (magnitude M8.0) and the 1923 Kanto earthquake (M7.9) which had 105,000 fatalities. A M7 or greater (M7+) earthquake in this area at present has high potential to produce devastating loss of life and property with even greater global economic repercussions. The Central Disaster Management Council of Japan estimates that the M7+ earthquake will cause 11,000 fatalities and 112 trillion yen (about 1 trillion US$) economic loss. This earthquake is evaluated to occur with a probability of 70% in 30 years by the Earthquake Research Committee of Japan. In order to mitigate disaster for greater Tokyo, the Special Project for Earthquake Disaster Mitigation in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area (2007-2011) was launched in collaboration with scientists, engineers, and social-scientists in nationwide institutions. The results that are obtained in the respective fields will be integrated until project termination to improve information on the strategy assessment for seismic risk mitigation in the Tokyo metropolitan area. In this talk, we give an outline of our project as an example of collaborative research on earthquake risk mitigation. Discussion is extended to our effort in progress and

The Standard, Intervention Measures and Health Risk for High Water Iodine Areas

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Peng; Liu, Lixiang; Shen, Hongmei; Jia, Qingzhen; Wang, Jinbiao; Zheng, Heming; Ma, Jing; Zhou, Dan; Liu, Shoujun; Su, Xiaohui

2014-01-01

Our study aims to clarify the population nutrient status in locations with different levels of iodine in the water in China; to choose effective measurements of water improvement(finding other drinking water source of iodine not excess) or non-iodised salt supply or combinations thereof; to classify the areas of elevated water iodine levels and the areas with endemic goiter; and to evaluate the risk factors of water iodine excess on pregnant women, lactating women and the overall population of women. From Henan, Hebei, Shandong and Shanxi province of China, for each of 50∼99 µg/L, 100∼149 µg/L, 150∼299 µg/L, and ≥300 µg/L water iodine level, three villages were selected respectively. Students of 6–12 years old and pregnant were sampled from villages of each water-iodine level of each province, excluded iodized salt consumer. Then the children's goiter volume, the children and pregnant's urinary iodine and water iodine were tested. In addition, blood samples were collected from pregnant women, lactating women and other women of reproductive age for each water iodine level in the Shanxi Province for thyroid function tests. These indicators should be matched for each person. When the water iodine exceeds 100 µg/L; the iodine nutrient of children are iodine excessive, and are adequate or more than adequate for the pregnant women. It is reasonable to define elevated water iodine areas as locations where the water iodine levels exceed 100 µg/L. The supply of non-iodised salt alone cannot ensure adequate iodine nutrition of the residents, and water improvement must be adopted, as well. Iodine excess increases the risk of certain thyroid diseases in women from one- to eightfold. PMID:24586909

An assessment of high risk sexual behaviour and HIV transmission ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

An assessment of high risk sexual behaviour and HIV transmission among migrant oil workers in the Niger Delta area of Nigeria. ... questionnaires to evaluate key high – risk sexual behavioral parameters such as multiplicity of sexual partners, bisexuality (closet homosexuality), high grade sexual behaviour and lesbianism.

Flood Risk Assessment in Urban Areas Based on Spatial Analytics and Social Factors

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Costas Armenakis

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Flood maps alone are not sufficient to determine and assess the risks to people, property, infrastructure, and services due to a flood event. Simply put, the risk is almost zero to minimum if the flooded region is “empty” (i.e., unpopulated, has not properties, no industry, no infrastructure, and no socio-economic activity. High spatial resolution Earth Observation (EO data can contribute to the generation and updating of flood risk maps based on several aspects including population, economic development, and critical infrastructure, which can enhance a city’s flood mitigation and preparedness planning. In this case study for the Don River watershed, Toronto, the flood risk is determined and flood risk index maps are generated by implementing a methodology for estimating risk based on the geographic coverage of the flood hazard, vulnerability of people, and the exposure of large building structures to flood water. Specifically, the spatial flood risk index maps have been generated through analytical spatial modeling which takes into account the areas in which a flood hazard is expected to occur, the terrain’s morphological characteristics, socio-economic parameters based on demographic data, and the density of large building complexes. Generated flood risk maps are verified through visual inspection with 3D city flood maps. Findings illustrate that areas of higher flood risk coincide with areas of high flood hazard and social and building exposure vulnerability.

Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessments for Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan, China, Area

Science.gov (United States)

Xie, Furen; Wang, Zhenming; Liu, Jingwei

2011-03-01

Seismic hazard and risk in the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan, China, area were estimated from 500-year intensity observations. First, we digitized the intensity observations (maps) using ArcGIS with a cell size of 0.1 × 0.1°. Second, we performed a statistical analysis on the digitized intensity data, determined an average b value (0.39), and derived the intensity-frequency relationship (hazard curve) for each cell. Finally, based on a Poisson model for earthquake occurrence, we calculated seismic risk in terms of a probability of I ≥ 7, 8, or 9 in 50 years. We also calculated the corresponding 10 percent probability of exceedance of these intensities in 50 years. The advantages of assessing seismic hazard and risk from intensity records are that (1) fewer assumptions (i.e., earthquake source and ground motion attenuation) are made, and (2) site-effect is included. Our study shows that the area has high seismic hazard and risk. Our study also suggests that current design peak ground acceleration or intensity for the area may not be adequate.

Identification of active erosion areas and areas at risk by remote sensing: an example in the Esera Isabena watershed, Central Spanish Pyrenees

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alatorre, L. C.; Begueria, S.; Vicente Serrano, S. M.

2009-01-01

The identification of eroded areas at basin scale can be very useful for environmental planning and can help to reduce land degradation and sediments yield. In this paper remote sensing technique are used to discriminate eroded areas and areas at risk in a badlands landscape developed on Eocene marls. In the Esera Isabena watershed (Spanish Pyrenees). The spatial distribution, the scarce vegetal cover and the high level of erosion let a good visual and digital discrimination of badlands, as opposed to other land covers and surfaces. A maximum likelihood supervised method was used to discriminate heavily eroded areas (badlands) from scarce or densely vegetated lands. the classification distance was used to obtain thresholds for eroded areas and areas at risk. Two error statistics (sensitivity and specificity), where used to determine the most adequate threshold values. The resulting map shows that most areas at risk are located surrounding the badlands areas. (Author) 8 refs.

Identification of active erosion areas and areas at risk by remote sensing: an example in the Esera Isabena watershed, Central Spanish Pyrenees

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Alatorre, L. C.; Begueria, S.; Vicente Serrano, S. M.

2009-07-01

The identification of eroded areas at basin scale can be very useful for environmental planning and can help to reduce land degradation and sediments yield. In this paper remote sensing technique are used to discriminate eroded areas and areas at risk in a badlands landscape developed on Eocene marls. In the Esera Isabena watershed (Spanish Pyrenees). The spatial distribution, the scarce vegetal cover and the high level of erosion let a good visual and digital discrimination of badlands, as opposed to other land covers and surfaces. A maximum likelihood supervised method was used to discriminate heavily eroded areas (badlands) from scarce or densely vegetated lands. the classification distance was used to obtain thresholds for eroded areas and areas at risk. Two error statistics (sensitivity and specificity), where used to determine the most adequate threshold values. The resulting map shows that most areas at risk are located surrounding the badlands areas. (Author) 8 refs.

An Overview. High Risk Series.

Science.gov (United States)

General Accounting Office, Washington, DC.

This report provides an overview of efforts undertaken by the U.S. General Accounting Office (GAO) in 1990 to review and report on federal program areas its work identified as high risk because of vulnerabilities to waste, fraud, abuse, and mismanagement. It reviews the current status of efforts to address these concerns. The six categories of…

Geological risk assessment for the rapid development area of the Erhai Basin

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Liu; Wang, Zhanqi; Jin, Gui; Chen, Dongdong; Wang, Zhan

For low-slope hilly land development to have more new land space in a watershed, it is particularly important that to coordinate the sharply increasing conflicts between mountainous and urban land utilization in the city. However, development of low-slope hilly land easily induce potential risks of geologic hazards such as landslide and landslip. It may lead to further environmental losses in a watershed. Hence, it is necessary to study potential risks of geo-hazards in low-slope hilly land development in urban area. Based on GIS spatial analysis technique, we select a study area, Dali City in the Erhai Basin located in watershed belt of Jinsha River, Lancang River and Red River in Yunnan Province of China. Through studying some relevant key indexes and parameters for monitoring potential risks of geo-hazards, we establish a composite index model for zoning the area with potential risks of geo-hazards in development of low-slope hilly land in the study area. Our research findings indicate that the potential risks of geo-hazards in eastern Dali City is relatively low while of that on slow hills with gentle slopes in the western area are relatively high. By using a zoning research method, generated maps show geological information of potential risks of geo-hazards on low-slope hilly land which provide important messages for guarding against natural geo-hazards and potential environmental losses in a watershed.

Collaborative risk governance in informal urban areas: The case of Wallacedene temporary relocation area

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Patricia J. Zweig

2017-04-01

Full Text Available Community-based disaster risk management (CBDRM is an emancipatory approach that aims to empower local communities in reducing their own risks. A community risk assessment (CRA is an essential element of CBDRM, incorporating highly participatory processes of hazard identification and vulnerability analysis. By incorporating local knowledge and insights, together with those contributed by other external role players, the nature of local risks can be more accurately identified, giving consideration to their causal factors, the nature of their realised impacts or potential effects on a local community and the challenges posed in addressing them. Reflecting on the process and outcomes of a CRA conducted in an informal settlement in the Cape Town metropolitan area, this article describes how one such risk assessment contributed to building local agency through a process of collaborative engagement. Offered as an example of possible best practice, it illustrates both the immediate and potentially longer term benefits to be derived from such a collaborative process, suggesting that a community-based risk assessment may contribute significantly to building more resilient communities. It concludes with a consideration of the challenges of sustaining longer term risk reduction efforts.

High-fire-risk behavior in critical fire areas

Science.gov (United States)

William S. Folkman

1977-01-01

Observations of fire-related behavior of wildland visitors were made in three types of areas-wilderness, established campground, and built-up commercial and residential areas-within the San Bernardino National Forest, California. Interviews were conducted with all persons so observed. Types of fire-related behavior differed markedly from one area to another, as did the...

Volcanic risk perception in the Campi Flegrei area

Science.gov (United States)

Ricci, T.; Barberi, F.; Davis, M. S.; Isaia, R.; Nave, R.

2013-03-01

The Campi Flegrei which includes part of the city of Naples, is an active volcanic system; its last eruption occurred in 1538 AD. More recently two significant crises occurred between 1969 and 72 and 1982-84 and were accompanied by ground movements (bradyseism) and seismic activity, forcing people of the town of Pozzuoli to be evacuated. Since 1984 development of a volcanic emergency plan has been underway. In 2000 Civil Protection published a risk map which defined the Red Zone, an area highly at risk from pyroclastic flows, which would need to be evacuated before an eruption. The first study to evaluate the volcanic risk perceptions of the people living within the Campi Flegrei area was completed in spring 2006, resulting in the largest sample ever studied on this topic except for one on Vesuvio area residents by Barberi et al. (2008). A 46 item questionnaire was distributed to 2000 of the approximately 300,000 residents of the Campi Flegrei Red Zone, which includes three towns and four neighborhoods within the city of Naples. A total of 1161 questionnaires were returned, for an overall response rate of 58%. Surveys were distributed to junior high and high school students, as well as to adult members of the general population. Results indicated that unlike issues such as crime, traffic, trash, and unemployment, volcanic hazards are not spontaneously mentioned as a major problem facing their community. However, when asked specific questions about volcanic risks, respondents believe that an eruption is likely and could have serious consequences for themselves and their communities and they are quite worried about the threat. Considering the events of 1969-72 and 1982-84, it was not surprising that respondents indicated earthquakes and ground deformations as more serious threats than eruptive phenomena. Of significant importance is that only 17% of the sample knows about the existence of the Emergency Plan, announced in 2001, and 65% said that they have not received

Early warning signal for dengue outbreaks and identification of high risk areas for dengue fever in Colombia using climate and non-climate datasets.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Jung-Seok; Carabali, Mabel; Lim, Jacqueline K; Herrera, Victor M; Park, Il-Yeon; Villar, Luis; Farlow, Andrew

2017-07-10

Dengue has been prevalent in Colombia with high risk of outbreaks in various locations. While the prediction of dengue epidemics will bring significant benefits to the society, accurate forecasts have been a challenge. Given competing health demands in Colombia, it is critical to consider the effective use of the limited healthcare resources by identifying high risk areas for dengue fever. The Climate Risk Factor (CRF) index was constructed based upon temperature, precipitation, and humidity. Considering the conditions necessary for vector survival and transmission behavior, elevation and population density were taken into account. An Early Warning Signal (EWS) model was developed by estimating the elasticity of the climate risk factor function to detect dengue epidemics. The climate risk factor index was further estimated at the smaller geographical unit (5 km by 5 km resolution) to identify populations at high risk. From January 2007 to December 2015, the Early Warning Signal model successfully detected 75% of the total number of outbreaks 1 ~ 5 months ahead of time, 12.5% in the same month, and missed 12.5% of all outbreaks. The climate risk factors showed that populations at high risk are concentrated in the Western part of Colombia where more suitable climate conditions for vector mosquitoes and the high population level were observed compared to the East. This study concludes that it is possible to detect dengue outbreaks ahead of time and identify populations at high risk for various disease prevention activities based upon observed climate and non-climate information. The study outcomes can be used to minimize potential societal losses by prioritizing limited healthcare services and resources, as well as by conducting vector control activities prior to experiencing epidemics.

Epidemiological studies in high background radiation areas

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Akiba, Suminori

2012-01-01

Below the doses of 100-200 mSv of radiation exposure, no acute health effect is observed, and the late health effects such as cancer are yet unclear. The problems making the risk evaluation of low dose radiation exposure difficult are the fact that the magnitude of expected health effects are small even if the risk is assumed to increase in proportion to radiation doses. As a result, studies need to be large particular when dealing with rare disease such as cancer. In addition, the expected health effects are so small that they can easily be masked by lifestyles and environmental factors including smoking. This paper will discuss cancer risk possibly associated with low-dose and low-dose rate radiation exposure, describing epidemiological studies on the residents in the high-background radiation areas. (author)

Cd pollution and ecological risk assessment for mining activity zone in Karst Area

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, B.; He, J. L.; Wen, X. M.; Tan, H.

2017-08-01

The monitored soil samples were collected from farmland in the area with mining activity in Karst area in Liupanshui. In this article, moss bag technology and TSP were used simultaneously for Cd transportation and deposition in the study area. Geostatistics and GIS were then used for the spatial distribution of Cd in the soil. Afterwards, Cd pollution to the soil environment and human health was studied by using the geo-accumulation index and potential ecological risk index methods. The results indicated that atmospheric deposition is the major route of Cd pollution. A moderate to strong pollution of Cd in the area and the degree of potential ecological risk was in a high level in the study area. Furthermore, Cd pollution in Liupanshui may originate from mining activity and atmospheric deposition.

Studies of some risk factors for re-introduction and spread of highly ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

High risk based poultry management and marketing procedures, inadequate poultry housing were areas of major concern in these states. Future high ... Key words: Risk factors, avian influenza, spread, Nigeria ... AJOL African Journals Online.

High resolution fire risk mapping in Italy

Science.gov (United States)

Fiorucci, Paolo; Biondi, Guido; Campo, Lorenzo; D'Andrea, Mirko

2014-05-01

The high topographic and vegetation heterogeneity makes Italy vulnerable to forest fires both in the summer and in winter. In particular, northern regions are predominantly characterized by a winter fire regime, mainly due to frequent extremely dry winds from the north, while southern and central regions and the large islands are characterized by a severe summer fire regime, because of the higher temperatures and prolonged lack of precipitation. The threat of wildfires in Italy is not confined to wooded areas as they extend to agricultural areas and urban-forest interface areas. The agricultural and rural areas, in the last century, have been gradually abandoned, especially in areas with complex topography. Many of these areas were subject to reforestation, leading to the spread of pioneer species mainly represented by Mediterranean conifer, which are highly vulnerable to fire. Because of the frequent spread of fire, these areas are limited to the early successional stages, consisting mainly of shrub vegetation; its survival in the competition with the climax species being ensured by the spread of fire itself. Due to the frequency of fire ignition — almost entirely man caused — the time between fires on the same area is at least an order of magnitude less than the time that would allow the establishment of forest climax species far less vulnerable to fire. In view of the limited availability of fire risk management resources, most of which are used in the management of national and regional air services, it is necessary to precisely identify the areas most vulnerable to fire risk. The few resources available can thus be used on a yearly basis to mitigate problems in the areas at highest risk by defining a program of forest management interventions, which is expected to make a significant contribution to the problem in a few years' time. The goal of such detailed planning is to dramatically reduce the costs associated with water bombers fleet management and fire

Simulation of high consequence areas for gas pipelines

OpenAIRE

Orlando Díaz-Parra; Enrique Vera-López

2018-01-01

The gas pipeline is used for the transport of natural gas at a great distance. Risks derived from the handling of a combustible material transported under high pressure, by pipelines that pass close to where people live, makes it necessary to adopt prevention, mitigation and control measures to reduce the effect in case of ignition of a gas leak. This work shows the development of a new mathematical model to determine areas of high consequence and their application, using widely available and...

Risk factors associated with Chagas disease in pregnant women in Santander, a highly endemic Colombian area.

Science.gov (United States)

Castellanos-Domínguez, Yeny Z; Cucunubá, Zulma M; Orozco, Luis C; Valencia-Hernández, Carlos A; León, Cielo M; Florez, Astrid C; Muñoz, Lyda; Pavía, Paula; Montilla, Marleny; Uribe, Luz Marina; García, Carlos; Ardila, William; Nicholls, Rubén Santiago; Puerta, Concepción J

2016-01-01

To determine the prevalence and risk factors associated with Chagas disease in pregnant women in an endemic area of Santander, Colombia. Cross-sectional study included 23 municipalities of Santander, Colombia. Serological IFAT and ELISA tests were undertaken to detect IgG anti- Trypanosoma cruzi. A questionnaire was conducted for assessing the risk factors of each participant. Newborns were evaluated at birth and followed up to 1 year of age to determine congenital infection. An overall prevalence of 3.2% (95% CI 2.4-4.2) among 1518 pregnant women was detected. Prevalences by provinces were as follows: Guanentina: 6.0% (95% CI 4.1-8.5), García Rovira: 2.9% (95% CI: 1.5-4.8) and Comunera: 0.4% (0.4-2.3). The main risk factors identified were age >32 years old (OR: 2.1; 95% CI: 1.1-3.9); currently having a thatched roof (OR: 11.8; CI95% 2.2-63.2) and a thatched roof during childhood (OR: 3.0; 95% CI: 1.4-6.6); having below primary school education level (OR: 4.6; 95% CI: 2.2-9.5); and a history of a close contact with the vector (triatomine bugs) at least once during their lifetime (OR: 6.9; 95% CI: 3.7-12.9). No congenital cases were detected by parasitological or serological techniques. Prevalence of Chagas disease in pregnant women is a potential source of infection in this Colombian endemic area. The main risk factors associated with seropositivity were related to conditions favouring the contact with the vector. The results show that it is necessary to continue an active surveillance in order to offer diagnosis and treatment to mothers and their newborns in addition to screening to pregnant women from endemic areas. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

High Radon Areas and lung cancer prevalence: Evidence from Ireland.

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Dempsey, Seraphim; Lyons, Seán; Nolan, Anne

2018-02-01

This paper examined the relationship between radon risk and lung cancer prevalence using a novel dataset combining spatially-coded survey data with a radon risk map. A logit model was employed to test for significant associations between a high risk of indoor radon and lung cancer prevalence using data on 5590 people aged 50+ from The Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing (TILDA) and radon risk data from Ireland's Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The use of data at the individual level allowed a wide range of potentially confounding factors (such as smoking) to be included. Results indicate that those who lived in an area in which 10%-20% of households were above the national reference level (200 Bq/m 3 ) were 2.9-3.1 times more likely to report a lung cancer diagnosis relative to those who lived in areas in which less than 1% of households were above the national reference level. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Groundwater vulnerability assessment for the Banyas Catchment of the Syrian coastal area using GIS and the RISKE method.

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Kattaa, Bassam; Al-Fares, Walid; Al Charideh, Abdul Rahman

2010-05-01

Vulnerability assessment to delineate areas that are more susceptible to contamination from anthropogenic sources has become an important element for sensible resource management and landuse planning. This contribution aims at estimating aquifer vulnerability by applying the RISKE model in Banyas Catchment Area (BCA), Tartous Prefecture, west Syria. An additional objective is to demonstrate the combined use of the RISKE model and a geographical information system (GIS) as an effective method for groundwater pollution risk assessment. The RISKE model uses five environmental parameters (Rock of aquifer media, Infiltration, Soil media, Karst, and Epikarst) to characterize the hydro-geological setting and evaluate aquifer vulnerability. The elevated eastern and low western part of the study area was dominated by high vulnerability classes, while the middle part was characterized by moderate vulnerability classes. Based on the vulnerability analysis, it was found that 2% and 39% of BCA is under low and high vulnerability to groundwater contamination, respectively, while more than 52% and 5% of the area of BCA can be designated as an area of moderate and very high vulnerability to groundwater contamination, respectively. The GIS technique has provided an efficient environment for analyses and high capabilities of handling a large amount of spatial data. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Opium, tobacco, and alcohol use in relation to oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma in a high-risk area of Iran

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Nasrollahzadeh, D; Kamangar, F; Aghcheli, K; Sotoudeh, M; Islami, F; Abnet, C C; Shakeri, R; Pourshams, A; Marjani, H A; Nouraie, M; Khatibian, M; Semnani, S; Ye, W; Boffetta, P; Dawsey, S M; Malekzadeh, R

2008-01-01

The very high incidence of oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) in Golestan Province in northeastern Iran was suggested by studies in the 1970s as partly due to opium use, which is not uncommon in this area, but based on limited numbers. From December 2003 to June 2007, we administered a validated structured questionnaire to 300 ESCC cases and 571 controls, matched on neighbourhood of residence, age (±2 years), and sex. We used conditional logistic regression models to calculate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) adjusted for potential confounders. Compared with those who used neither tobacco nor opium, risk of ESCC was increased in those who used tobacco only (OR, 95% CI: 1.70, 1.05–2.73), in those who used opium only (2.12, 1.21–3.74), and in those who used both tobacco and opium (2.35, 1.50–3.67). All forms of tobacco use (cigarettes, hookah, and nass) were associated with higher ESCC risk. Similarly, use of both crude opium and other forms of opium were associated with higher risk. Alcohol consumption was seen in only 2% of the cases and 2% of the controls, and was not associated with ESCC risk. PMID:18475303

Flood Hazard and Risk Analysis in Urban Area

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Huang, Chen-Jia; Hsu, Ming-hsi; Teng, Wei-Hsien; Lin, Tsung-Hsien

2017-04-01

Typhoons always induce heavy rainfall during summer and autumn seasons in Taiwan. Extreme weather in recent years often causes severe flooding which result in serious losses of life and property. With the rapid industrial and commercial development, people care about not only the quality of life, but also the safety of life and property. So the impact of life and property due to disaster is the most serious problem concerned by the residents. For the mitigation of the disaster impact, the flood hazard and risk analysis play an important role for the disaster prevention and mitigation. In this study, the vulnerability of Kaohsiung city was evaluated by statistics of social development factor. The hazard factors of Kaohsiung city was calculated by simulated flood depth of six different return periods and four typhoon events which result in serious flooding in Kaohsiung city. The flood risk can be obtained by means of the flood hazard and social vulnerability. The analysis results provide authority to strengthen disaster preparedness and to set up more resources in high risk areas.

Malaria prevalence, risk factors and spatial distribution in a hilly forest area of Bangladesh.

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Ubydul Haque

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Malaria is a major public health concern in Bangladesh and it is highly endemic in the Chittagong Hill Tracts where prevalence was 11.7% in 2007. One sub-district, Rajasthali, had a prevalence of 36%. Several interventions were introduced in early 2007 to control malaria. This study was undertaken to evaluate the impacts of these intensive early stage interventions on malaria in Bangladesh. This prevalence study assesses whether or not high malaria prevalence remains, and if so, which areas and individuals remain at high risk of infection. METHODS AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A 2-stage cluster sampling technique was used to sample 1,400 of 5,322 (26.3% households in Rajasthali, and screened using a rapid diagnostic test (Falci-vax. Overall malaria prevalence was 11.5%. The proportions of Plasmodium falciparum, Plasmodium vivax and infection with both species were 93.2%, 1.9% and 5.0%, respectively. Univariate, multivariate logistic regression, and spatial cluster analyses were performed separately. Sex, age, number of bed nets, forest cover, altitude and household density were potential risk factors. A statistically significant malaria cluster was identified. Significant differences among risk factors were observed between cluster and non-cluster areas. CONCLUSION AND SIGNIFICANCE: Malaria has significantly decreased within 2 years after onset of intervention program. Both aspects of the physical and social environment, as well as demographic characteristics are associated with spatial heterogeneity of risk. The ability to identify and locate these areas provides a strategy for targeting interventions during initial stages of intervention programs. However, in high risk clusters of transmission, even extensive coverage by current programs leaves transmission ongoing at reduced levels. This indicates the need for continued development of new strategies for identification and treatment as well as improved understanding of the patterns and

Risk to a Changing Climate in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area

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Vargas, N. D.

2016-12-01

The issue of climate change has dominated the atmospheric sciences agenda in recent decades. The concern about an increase in climate related disasters, mainly in large population centers, has led to ask whether they are mainly due to changes in climate or in vulnerability.The Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) is an example of megalopolis under high climate risk, where floods, landslides, health problems, high air pollution events, socioeconomic droughts are becoming important environmental and social problems. As urbanization spreads and population increases exposure to natural hazards increases, and so the magnitude of risk to a changing climate and the negative impacts. Since the late nineteenth century, in the MCMA an average maximum temperature could be around 22°C, whereas today it is about 24.5ºC. That is, the increase in the average temperature in Mexico City is around 3°C in a hundred years. But there are areas where an increase in the average temperature is similar in only thirty years. The heating rate of the city can vary depending on the change in land use. Areas that conserve forested regions in the process of urbanization tend to warm less than areas where the transformation into concrete and cement is almost complete. Thus, the climate of the MCMA shows important changes mainly in relation to land use changes. Global warming and natural climate variability were also analyzed as possible forcing factors of the observed warming by comparing low frequency variations in local temperature and indices for natural forcing. The hydrological cycle of the MCMA has also changed with urbanization. The "bubble of hot air" over the urban area has more capacity to hold moisture now than before the UHI. However, the increased risk to floods, heat or drought appears to be related not only to more frequent intense climatic hazards induced by the urbanization effect. This process also induces increased vulnerability to a changing climate. The establishment of

Comparison of the large-scale radon risk map for southern Belgium with results of high resolution surveys

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhu, H.-C.; Charlet, J.M.; Poffijn, A.

2000-01-01

A large-scale radon survey consisting of long-term measurements in about 5200 singe-family houses in the southern part of Belgium was carried from 1995 to 1999. A radon risk map for the region was produced using geostatistical and GIS approaches. Some communes or villages situated within high risk areas were chosen for detailed surveys. A high resolution radon survey with about 330 measurements was performed in half part of the commune of Burg-Reuland. Comparison of radon maps on quite different scales shows that the general Rn risk map has similar pattern as the radon map for the detailed study area. Another detailed radon survey in the village of Hatrival, situated in a high radon area, found very high proportion of houses with elevated radon concentrations. The results of this detailed survey are comparable to the expectation for high risk areas on the large-scale radon risk map. The good correspondence between the findings of the general risk map and the analysis of the limited detailed surveys, suggests that the large-scale radon risk map is likely reliable. (author)

Prenatal screening for psychosocial risks in a high risk-population in Peru using the KINDEX interview.

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Spyridou, Andria; Schauer, Maggie; Ruf-Leuschner, Martina

2016-01-22

Prenatal stress and other prenatal risk factors (e.g. intimate partner violence) have a negative impact on mother's health, fetal development as well as enduring adverse effects on the neuro-cognitive, behavioral and physical health of the child. Mothers of low socio-economic status and especially those living in crime-ridden areas are even more exposed to a host of risk factors. Societies of extreme violence, poverty and inequalities, often present difficulties to provide adequate mental health care to the most needed populations. The KINDEX, a brief standardized instrument that assesses 11 different risk factors was used by midwives to identify pregnant women at-risk, in a suburban area with one of the highest levels of domestic violence in Lima. The instrument was designed to be used by medical staff to identify high-risk child-bearing women and, based on the results, to refer them to the adequate psychological or social support providers. The aim of this study is to assess the feasibility of psychosocial screening using the KINDEX in a Latin American Country for the first time, and to explore the relationship of the KINDEX with thee major risk areas, maternal psychopathology, perceived stress and traumatic experiences. The study was conducted in cooperation with the gynecological department of a general hospital in a suburban area of Lima. Nine midwives conducted interviews using the KINDEX of ninety-five pregnant women attending the gynecological unit of the hospital. From these, forty pregnant women were re-interviewed by a clinical psychologist using established instruments in order to assess the feasibility of the prenatal assessment in public health settings and the relationship of the KINDEX with maternal perceived stress, psychopathology symptoms and trauma load during pregnancy. We found high rates of risk factors in the examined pregnant women comparable with those found in the general population. Significant correlations were found between the KINDEX

Seroprevalence and risk factors of human cysticercosis and taeniasis prevalence in a highly endemic area of epilepsy in Bangoua, west Cameroon.

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Nkouawa, Agathe; Dschanou, Armel Romeo; Moyou-Somo, Roger; Sako, Yasuhito; Ito, Akira

2017-01-01

Cysticercosis caused by the larvae of Taenia solium is a serious and emerging threat to public health in the endemic areas as well as in the non-endemic areas.　Neurocysticercosis, an affection of the central nervous system is a leading cause of epilepsy in endemic areas. This study was carried out to investigate human cysticercosis, taeniasis and risk factors, and also their association with epilepsy in Bangoua, west Cameroon where epilepsy is highly prevalent. Out of 384 people investigated, 12 (3.1%) exhibited antibody response against low molecular weight antigens of T. solium by ELISA. Immunoblot revealed that six persons (1.6%) were seropositive with the same antigens. Among 61 epileptic patients, only one was seropositive by immunoblot and the study did not find any statistically significant difference (P>0.05) in seropositivity to T. solium between epileptic persons (1/61, 1.6%) and non-epileptic group (5/323, 1.5%). In addition, cysticercosis was associated with households eating pork meat from pigs slaughtered at home, but not with other factors. The risk factors including pig farming, the consumption of pork meat, vegetables, and non-drinkable water were attenuated by the relatively good hygiene and pig husbandry practices of the population. No egg of Taenia was found in stool by microscopic examination. All data obtained in this study suggested that cysticercosis might not be the principal causative agent of epilepsy in this area. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

High-risk PCI: how to define it today?

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DE Marzo, Vincenzo; D'Amario, Domenico; Galli, Mattia; Vergallo, Rocco; Porto, Italo

2018-04-11

Before the percutaneous spread, the mortality rate of patients with coronary heart disease not suitable for cardiac surgery was markedly high. This limit has been progressively exceeded with the advent of minimally invasive approaches, which, although was initially intended exclusively for low risk patients, was then employed in complex patients often too compromised to undergo cardiac surgery. Given to the rising of high-risk population, due to an increase of patients with multiple chronic conditions linked to the best care offered, we are witnessing an expansion of the high-risk percutaneous coronary interventions (PCI) population. Despite defining what high-risk is remains still unclear, all proposed definitions of high-risk PCI combine features related to three clinical areas: 1) patient risk factors and comorbidities (incorporating those which preclude surgical or percutaneous revascularization such as diabetes, COPD, CKD, lung disease, frailty, advanced age); 2) location of the disease and complexity of coronary anatomy (including multi-vessel disease, left main disease, CTO, bifurcations); 3) hemodynamic clinical status (ventricular dysfunction, concomitant valvular disease or unstable characteristics). Since cardiologists have ascertained the encouraging results in terms of efficacy and rewards compared to the low-risks patients, the important role of treating high-risk patients is becoming more and more relevant to the point that current guidelines have now changed the appropriateness of percutaneous interventions indications. Considering the complexity in managing higher-risk patients with coronary artery disease, the next step to ensure the best care for this type of patients is to create a team-based model of cooperation in order to properly establish the right treatment for the right patient.

Ownership of High-Risk ("Vicious") Dogs as a Marker for Deviant Behaviors: Implications for Risk Assessment

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Barnes, Jaclyn E.; Boat, Barbara W.; Putnam, Frank W.; Dates, Harold F.; Mahlman, Andrew R.

2006-01-01

This study examined the association between ownership of high-risk ("vicious") dogs and the presence of deviant behaviors in the owners as indicated by court convictions. We also explored whether two characteristics of dog ownership (abiding licensing laws and choice of breed) could be useful areas of inquiry when assessing risk status…

Availability of high school extracurricular sports programs and high-risk behaviors.

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Cohen, Deborah A; Taylor, Stephanie L; Zonta, Michela; Vestal, Katherine D; Schuster, Mark A

2007-02-01

The Surgeon General has called for an expansion of school-based extracurricular sports programs to address the obesity epidemic. However, little is known about the availability of and participation in high school extracurricular sports and how participation in these sports is related to high-risk behaviors. We surveyed Los Angeles County public high schools in 2002 to determine the number of extracurricular sports programs offered and the percentage of students participating in those programs. We used community data on rates of arrests, births, and sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) among youth to examine associations between risk behaviors and participation in sports programs. The average school offered 14 sports programs, and the average participation rate was 39% for boys and 30% for girls. Smaller schools and schools with higher percentages of disadvantaged students offered fewer programs. The average school offering 13 or fewer programs had 14% of its students participating, while the average school offering 16 or more programs had 31% of its students participating in sports. Controlling for area-level demographics, juvenile arrest rates and teen birth rates, but not STD rates, were lower in areas where schools offered more extracurricular sports. Opportunities for participation in high school extracurricular sports are limited. Future studies should test whether increased opportunities will increase physical activity and impact the increasing overweight problem in youths.

Risk analysis of underground infrastructures in urban areas

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cagno, Enrico; De Ambroggi, Massimiliano; Grande, Ottavio; Trucco, Paolo

2011-01-01

The paper presents an integrated approach for vulnerability and resilience analysis for underground infrastructures, i.e. a societal risk analysis of the failures of underground services for an urban area. The approach is based on the detailed study of (1) domino-effects for the components of a single infrastructure and for a given set of infrastructures interoperated and/or belonging to the same area; (2) risk and vulnerability analysis of a given area; (3) identification of a set of intervention guidelines, in order to improve the overall system resilience. The use of an integrated (interoperability and area) approach, breaking down the analysis area extent into sub-areas and assessing the dependencies among sub-areas both in terms of interoperability and damage propagation of critical infrastructures, demonstrates a useful advantage in terms of resilience analysis, more consistent with the 'zoned' nature of failures of the underground infrastructures. An applied case, describing the interoperability and damage propagation analysis with the evaluation of time-dependency for the infrastructures and targets and of different kinds of interventions of the underground infrastructures of a town, is presented for this purpose.

Ecological risk assessment and source identification for heavy metals in surface sediment from the Liaohe River protected area, China.

Science.gov (United States)

Ke, Xin; Gui, Shaofeng; Huang, Hao; Zhang, Haijun; Wang, Chunyong; Guo, Wei

2017-05-01

Surface sediment samples collected from 19 sites in the Liaohe River protected area were analysed for heavy metals to evaluate their potential ecological risk. The results demonstrated that the degree of pollution from seven heavy metals decreases in the following sequence: cadmium(Cd)>arsenic(As)>copper(Cu)>nickel(Ni)>lead(Pb)>chromium(Cr)>zinc(Zn). The metal speciation analysis indicated that Cd, Pb and Zn were dominated by non-residual fractions and have high mobility and bioavailability, indicating significant anthropogenic sources. Based on the potential ecological risk index (PERI), geo-accumulation index (I geo ) and risk assessment code (RAC), Cd made the most dominant contribution, with a high to very high potential ecological risk being determined in this studied area. Moreover, in reference to the results of multivariate statistical analyses, we deduced that Cd and Zn originated from agriculture sources within the Liaohe River protected area, whereas Cu, Cr and Ni primarily originated from natural sources. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Area-based assessment of extinction risk.

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Hei, Fangliang

2012-05-01

Underpinning the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List is the assessment of extinction risk as determined by the size and degree of loss of populations. The IUCN system lists a species as Critically Endangered, Endangered, or Vulnerable if its population size declines 80%, 50%, or 30% within a given time frame. However, effective implementation of the system faces substantial challenges and uncertainty because geographic scale data on population size and long-term dynamics are scarce. I develop a model to quantify extinction risk using a measure based on a species' distribution, a much more readily obtained quantity. The model calculates the loss of the area of occupancy that is equivalent to the loss of a given proportion of a population. It is a very simple yet general model that has no free parameters and is independent of scale. The model predicted well the distributions of 302 tree species at a local scale and the distributions of 348 species of North American land birds. This area-based model provides a solution to the long-standing problem for IUCN assessments of lack of data on population sizes, and thus it will contribute to facilitating the quantification of extinction risk worldwide.

Risk behaviors of 15–21 year olds in Mexico lead to a high prevalence of sexually transmitted infections: results of a survey in disadvantaged urban areas

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Conde-Glez Carlos J

2006-02-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Due to the fact that adolescents are more likely to participate in high-risk behaviors, this sector of the population is particularly vulnerable to contracting sexually transmitted infections (STIs and resultant health problems. Methods A survey was carried out among adolescents from poor homes in 204 small-urban areas of Mexico. Information was collected in relation to risk behaviors and socio-economic environment. A sub-group of the participants also provided blood and urine samples which were analyzed to detect sexually transmitted infections. Results The presence of Chlamydia was detected in nearly 8% of participants who had stated that they were sexually active (18% and approximately 12% were positive for herpes type 2-specific antibodies. For both, a greater proportion of girls resulted positive compared to boys. The presence of these biological outcomes of sexual risk behavior was associated with other risk behaviors (smoking, but not with self-reported indicators of protected sex (reported use of condom during most recent sexual activity. Conclusion The results presented in this study show a startlingly high prevalence of HSV-2 among sexually active Mexican adolescents in poor urban areas, suggesting that this group has participated to a great extent in risky sexual practices. The relationships between socioeconomic environment and adolescent risk behavior need to be better understood if we are to design preventive interventions that modify the determinants of risk behaviors.

The determination of risk areas for muddy floods based on a worst-case erosion modelling

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Saathoff, Ulfert; Schindewolf, Marcus; Annika Arévalo, Sarah

2013-04-01

Soil erosion and muddy floods are a frequently occurring hazard in the German state of Saxony, because of the topography and the high relief energy together with the high proportion of arable land. Still, the events are rather heterogeneously distributed and we do not know where damage is likely to occur. The goal of this study is to locate hot spots for the risk of muddy floods, with the objective to prevent high economic damage in future. We applied a soil erosion and deposition map of Saxony, calculated with the process based soil erosion model EROSION 3D. This map shows the potential soil erosion and transported sediment for worst case soil conditions and a 10 year rain storm event. Furthermore, a map of the current landuse in the state is used. From the landuse map, we extracted those areas that are especially vulnerable to muddy floods, like residential and industrial areas, infrastructural facilities (e.g. power plants, hospitals) and highways. In combination with the output of the soil erosion model, the amount of sediment, that enters each single landuse entity, is calculated. Based on this data, a state-wide map with classified risks is created. The results are furthermore used to identify the risk of muddy floods for each single municipality in Saxony. The results are evaluated with data of real occurred muddy flood events with documented locations during the period between 2000 and 2010. Additionally, plausibility tests are performed for selected areas (examination of landuse, topography and soil). The results prove to be plausible and most of the documented events can be explained by the modelled risk map. The created map can be used by different institutions like city and traffic planners, to estimate the risk of muddy flood occurrence at specific locations. Furthermore, the risk map can serve insurance companies to evaluate the insurance risk of a building. To make them easily accessible, the risk map will be published online via a web GIS

A Bayesian kriging model for estimating residential exposure to air pollution of children living in a high-risk area in Italy

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Ana M. Vicedo-Cabrera

2013-11-01

Full Text Available A core challenge in epidemiological analysis of the impact of exposure to air pollution on health is assessment of the individual exposure for subjects at risk. Geographical information systems (GIS-based pollution mapping, such as kriging, has become one of the main tools for evaluating individual exposure to ambient pollutants. We applied universal Bayesian kriging to estimate the residential exposure to gaseous air pollutants for children living in a high-risk area (Milazzo- Valle del Mela in Sicily, Italy. Ad hoc air quality monitoring campaigns were carried out: 12 weekly measurements for sulphur dioxide (SO2 and nitrogen dioxide (NO2 were obtained from 21 passive dosimeters located at each school yard of the study area from November 2007 to April 2008. Universal Bayesian kriging was performed to predict individual exposure levels at each residential address for all 6- to 12-years-old children attending primary school at various locations in the study area. Land use, altitude, distance to main roads and population density were included as covariates in the models. A large geographical heterogeneity in air quality was recorded suggesting complex exposure patterns. We obtained a predicted mean level of 25.78 (±10.61 μg/m3 of NO2 and 4.10 (±2.71 μg/m3 of SO2 at 1,682 children’s residential addresses, with a normalised root mean squared error of 28% and 25%, respectively. We conclude that universal Bayesian kriging approach is a useful tool for the assessment of realistic exposure estimates with regard to ambient pollutants at home addresses. Its prediction uncertainty is highly informative and can be used for both designing subsequent campaigns and for improved modelling of epidemiological associations.

Influence of risk area size and location on native collateral resistance and ischemic zone perfusion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gumm, D.C.; Cooper, S.M.; Thompson, S.B.; Marcus, M.L.; Harrison, D.C.

1988-01-01

To examine the effect of risk area size on collateral resistance and ichemic region perfusion, the authors produced different sized risk areas by occluding either the left anterior descending (LAD) or the circumflex (Cx) coronary artery at different sites. The most proximal occlusion of the LAD and Cx produced risk areas of 43 ± 5 and 36 ± 2% of left ventricular (LV) mass, respectively, whereas distal LAD and Cx occlusions produced risk areas of 13 ± 2 and 17 ± 2% of LV weight, respectively. Although total collateral flow was highest to the largest risk areas, collateral flow per 100 g of ischemic myocardium was 80% higher to the small LAD risk area compared with the large LAD risk area and 43% higher to the small Cx risk area compared with the large Cx risk area. Collateral resistance, calculated from the transcollateral pressure and perfusion per 100 g of myocardium was significantly lower in the small risk areas than in the large ones. They examined the effect of risk area location on collateral perfusion and resistance. These experiments show that collateral resistance is influenced both by ischemic region size and location. Small risk areas receive more collateral flow per mass of tissue than large risk areas, and apical risk areas receive greater quantities of collateral flow than those located at the base. These data may explain why small risk areas often do not develop infarction after coronary occlusion

A multi-attribute Systemic Risk Index for comparing and prioritizing chemical industrial areas

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reniers, G.L.L.; Sörensen, K.; Dullaert, W.

2012-01-01

Measures taken to decrease interdependent risks within chemical industrial areas should be based on quantitative data from a holistic (cluster-based) point of view. Therefore, this paper examines the typology of networks representing industrial areas to formulate recommendations to more effectively protect a chemical cluster against existing systemic risks. Chemical industrial areas are modeled as two distinct complex networks and are prioritized by computing two sub-indices with respect to existing systemic safety and security risks (using Domino Danger Units) and supply chain risks (using units from an ordinal expert scale). Subsequently, a Systemic Risk Index for the industrial area is determined employing the Borda algorithm, whereby the systemic risk index considers both a safety and security network risk index and a supply chain network risk index. The developed method allows decreasing systemic risks within chemical industrial areas from a holistic (inter-organizational and/or inter-cluster) perspective. An illustrative example is given.

Excess relative risk for solid cancer mortality during prolonged exposure to high-background natural radiation in Yangjiang area of China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sun Quanfu; Tao Zufan; Yuan Yongling; Zou Jianming; Cha Yongru; Jian Yuannu; Wei Luxin; Akiba, S.

2002-01-01

Objective: To estimate the excess relative risk for solid cancer associated with chronically exposure to high-background natural radiation in Yangjiang area of China. Methods: Based on hamlet-specific environmental doses and sex-and age-specific occupancy factors, the authors calculated cumulative doses for each cohort member. Assuming a linear dose response relationship and using cancer mortality data for the period 1979-1995 and Poisson model, the authors estimated the excess relative risk (ERR) for solid cancer. Results: The ERR per Sv of all solid cancer is estimated to be -0.11 (95% CI, -0.67, 0.69 to 95%). The corresponding figures for cancers of liver, nasopharynx, lungs and stomach are -0.99 (-1.60, 0.10), 0.10 (-1.21, 3.28), -0.68 (-1.58, 1.66) and -0.27 (-1.37, 2.69) respectively. Conclusion: The association between ERR of solid cancer and dose can not be found

Geohelminth contamination of public areas and epidemiological risk factors in Curitiba, Brazil

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Lew Kan Sprenger

Full Text Available This study aimed to investigate the frequency of geohelminthic contamination of public parks and squares in Curitiba, state of Paraná, Brazil, between August and December 2010. A total of 345 samples were collected from 69 sandboxes in different areas and were tested using the Faust, Lutz and Baermann parasitological techniques. Potential risk factors associated with soil contamination were also analyzed. A total of 36% of the samples (124/345 were positive for helminths and 65.2% of the areas (45/69 were classified as contaminated in one or more samples. The most commonly identified parasite eggs were Ancylostoma sp. (14.5%; 50/345; followed by Toxocara sp. (9.6%; 33/345 and the Strongyloidea superfamily (excluding hookworms (2.3%; 8/345. The analysis on the epidemiological risk factors indicated that the presence of dogs and feces in the sandboxes increased the chances of contamination of the site. Use of fences had a protective positive impact that reduced soil contamination. Health education programs should be applied within the community to minimize the risk of human contact with dogs' feces. Use of fencing in these areas is highly recommended to prevent or reduce the users' contact with animal excrement.

Cross-sectional Serologic Assessment of Immunity to Poliovirus in Differential Risk Areas of India: India Seroprevalence Survey - 2014.

Science.gov (United States)

Ahmad, Mohammad; Bahl, Sunil; Kunwar, Abhishek

2016-08-07

To assess the seroprevalence against all three poliovirus serotypes in traditional high risk areas in Bihar, lowest routine immunization coverage areas in Madhya Pradesh and migrant population living in Mumbai urban slums. Cross-sectional Survey. Subjects selected by house to house visit (community based) and transported to government health facilities for further study procedures. 1137 randomly selected healthy infants 6-11 months of age residing in the selected high-risk areas. Serum samples from the study site were shipped to Enterovirus Research Centre (ERC), Mumbai to determine the neutralizing antibodies against all three poliovirus serotypes. Children with a reciprocal antibody titer ≥1:8 were considered seropositive to the specific poliovirus. Overall, seroprevalence in all the three study areas was 98%, 98% and 91% against poliovirus type-1, type-2 and type-3, respectively. Bihar had a seroprevalence of 99%, 99% and 92% against type-1, type-2 and type-3 respectively. Corresponding figures for Madhya Pradesh and Mumbai were 98%, 99% and 88% and 98%, 97% and 94%, respectively. The study found high seroprevalence against all three poliovirus types not only in the traditional high-risk areas for polio in India, but even in the areas known to have low routine immunization coverage and among the migratory clusters living in Mumbai urban slums. Type-2 seroprevalence was found to be high. These findings are reassuring against the threat of emergence of circulating vaccine derived polioviruses (cVDPVs) in the country subsequent to switch from trivalent oral polio vaccine to bivalent oral polio vaccine in the routine immunization schedule from April 2016.

Using Hospitalization and Mortality Data to Identify Areas at Risk for Adolescent Suicide.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Kun; Aseltine, Robert H

2017-08-01

The purpose of this study is to use statewide data on inpatient hospitalizations for suicide attempts and suicide mortality to identify communities and school districts at risk for adolescent suicide. Five years of data (2010-2014) from the Office of the Connecticut Medical Examiner and the Connecticut Hospital Inpatient Discharge Database were analyzed. A mixed-effects Poisson regression model was used to assess whether suicide attempt/mortality rates in the state's 119 school districts were significantly better or worse than expected after adjusting for 10 community-level characteristics. Ten districts were at significantly higher risk for suicidal behavior, with suicide mortality/hospitalization rates ranging from 154% to 241% of their expected rates, after accounting for their community characteristics. Four districts were identified as having significantly lower risk for suicide attempts than expected after accounting for community-level advantages and disadvantages. Data capturing hospitalization for suicide attempts and suicide deaths can inform prevention activities by identifying high-risk areas to which resources should be allocated, as well as low-risk areas that may provide insight into the best practices in suicide prevention. Copyright © 2017 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Volcanic risk perception of young people in the urban areas of Vesuvius: Comparisons with other volcanic areas and implications for emergency management

Science.gov (United States)

Carlino, S.; Somma, R.; Mayberry, G.C.

2008-01-01

More than 600 000 people are exposed to volcanic risk in the urban areas near the volcano, Vesuvius, and may need to be evacuated if there is renewed volcanic activity. The success of a future evacuation will strongly depend on the level of risk perception and preparedness of the at-risk communities during the current period of quiescence. The volcanic risk perception and preparedness of young people is of particular importance because hazard education programs in schools have been shown to increase the clarity of risk perception and students often share their knowledge with their parents. In order to evaluate young people's risk perception and preparedness for a volcanic crisis, a multiple choice questionnaire was distributed to 400 high-school students in three municipalities located close to the volcano. The overall results suggest that despite a 60-year period of quiescence at Vesuvius, the interviewed students have an accurate perception of the level of volcanic risk. On the other hand, the respondents demonstrate a clear lack of understanding of volcanic processes and their related hazards. Also, the interviewed students show high levels of fear, poor perceived ability to protect themselves from the effects of a future eruption, and insufficient knowledge of the National Emergency Plan for Vesuvian Area (NEPVA). The latter result suggests that in comparison with volcanic crises in other regions, during a future eruption of Vesuvius, there may not be enough time to educate the large number of people living near the volcano about how to appropriately respond. The inadequate risk education and preparedness of respondents implies that a strong effort is needed to improve communication strategies in order to facilitate successful evacuations. Therefore, it is important to take advantage of the present period of quiescence at Vesuvius to improve the accuracy of risk perception of youth in local communities. ?? 2008.

Factors Influencing Cancer Risk Perception in High Risk Populations: A Systematic Review

Science.gov (United States)

2011-01-01

Background Patients at higher than average risk of heritable cancer may process risk information differently than the general population. However, little is known about clinical, demographic, or psychosocial predictors that may impact risk perception in these groups. The objective of this study was to characterize factors associated with perceived risk of developing cancer in groups at high risk for cancer based on genetics or family history. Methods We searched Ovid MEDLINE, Ovid Embase, Ovid PsycInfo, and Scopus from inception through April 2009 for English-language, original investigations in humans using core concepts of "risk" and "cancer." We abstracted key information and then further restricted articles dealing with perceived risk of developing cancer due to inherited risk. Results Of 1028 titles identified, 53 articles met our criteria. Most (92%) used an observational design and focused on women (70%) with a family history of or contemplating genetic testing for breast cancer. Of the 53 studies, 36 focused on patients who had not had genetic testing for cancer risk, 17 included studies of patients who had undergone genetic testing for cancer risk. Family history of cancer, previous prophylactic tests and treatments, and younger age were associated with cancer risk perception. In addition, beliefs about the preventability and severity of cancer, personality factors such as "monitoring" personality, the ability to process numerical information, as well as distress/worry also were associated with cancer risk perception. Few studies addressed non-breast cancer or risk perception in specific demographic groups (e.g. elderly or minority groups) and few employed theory-driven analytic strategies to decipher interrelationships of factors. Conclusions Several factors influence cancer risk perception in patients at elevated risk for cancer. The science of characterizing and improving risk perception in cancer for high risk groups, although evolving, is still

Factors Influencing Cancer Risk Perception in High Risk Populations: A Systematic Review

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tilburt Jon C

2011-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Patients at higher than average risk of heritable cancer may process risk information differently than the general population. However, little is known about clinical, demographic, or psychosocial predictors that may impact risk perception in these groups. The objective of this study was to characterize factors associated with perceived risk of developing cancer in groups at high risk for cancer based on genetics or family history. Methods We searched Ovid MEDLINE, Ovid Embase, Ovid PsycInfo, and Scopus from inception through April 2009 for English-language, original investigations in humans using core concepts of "risk" and "cancer." We abstracted key information and then further restricted articles dealing with perceived risk of developing cancer due to inherited risk. Results Of 1028 titles identified, 53 articles met our criteria. Most (92% used an observational design and focused on women (70% with a family history of or contemplating genetic testing for breast cancer. Of the 53 studies, 36 focused on patients who had not had genetic testing for cancer risk, 17 included studies of patients who had undergone genetic testing for cancer risk. Family history of cancer, previous prophylactic tests and treatments, and younger age were associated with cancer risk perception. In addition, beliefs about the preventability and severity of cancer, personality factors such as "monitoring" personality, the ability to process numerical information, as well as distress/worry also were associated with cancer risk perception. Few studies addressed non-breast cancer or risk perception in specific demographic groups (e.g. elderly or minority groups and few employed theory-driven analytic strategies to decipher interrelationships of factors. Conclusions Several factors influence cancer risk perception in patients at elevated risk for cancer. The science of characterizing and improving risk perception in cancer for high risk groups, although

Determining the explosion risk level and the explosion hazard area for a group of natural gas wells

Science.gov (United States)

Gligor, A.; Petrescu, V.; Deac, C.; Bibu, M.

2016-11-01

Starting from the fact that the natural gas engineering profession is generally associated with a high occupational risk, the current paper aims to help increase the safety of natural gas wells and reduce the risk of work-related accidents, as well as the occurrence of professional illnesses, by applying an assessment method that has proven its efficiency in other industrial areas in combination with a computer-aided design software. More specifically, the paper focuses on two main research directions: assessing the explosion risk for employees working at natural gas wells and indicating areas with a higher explosion hazard by using a modern software that allows their presentation in 3D. The appropriate zoning of industrial areas allows to group the various functional areas function of the probability of the occurrence of a dangerous element, such as an explosive atmosphere and subsequently it allows also to correctly select the electrical and mechanical equipment that will be used in that area, since electrical apparatuses that are otherwise found in normal work environments cannot generally be used in areas with explosion hazard, because of the risk that an electric spark, an electrostatic discharge etc. ignites the explosive atmosphere.

Epidemiological studies in the high and normal level radiation areas of Kerala

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Koya, P.K.M.

2012-01-01

High and normal level natural radiation areas of Kerala give unique opportunities to estimate the risk, if any, of chronic low dose exposure by direct epidemiological studies on human beings. Studies in the area are being carried out by Low Level Radiation Research Laboratory of Bhabha Atomic Research Centre in collaboration with Departments of Health and Family Welfare/Social Welfare of the Government of Kerala and local post graduate colleges. To assess the role of chronic low dose exposure in the induction/transmission of chromosomal alterations across generations, hospital based cytogenetic studies on newborns was carried out to estimate and compare the frequency of chromosomal aberrations and karyotypes anomalies in the high (areas with radiation dose of more than 1.50 mGy/year) and normal (areas with radiation dose of 1.50 mR/year or less) level radiation areas. A total of 1,267,788 metaphases from 27,295 (9,64,390 cells from 17,298 newborns of high and 3,03,398 cells from 9,997 newborns of normal level radiation areas) newborns was screened

Identifying the Risk Areas and Urban Growth by ArcGIS-Tools

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Omar Hamdy

2016-10-01

Full Text Available Abouelreesh is one of the most at risk areas in Aswan, Egypt, which suffers from storms, poor drainage, and flash flooding. These phenomena affect the urban areas and cause a lot of damage to buildings and infrastructure. Moreover, the potential for the further realization of dangerous situations increased when the urban areas of Abouelreesh extended towards the risk areas. In an effort to ameliorate the danger, two key issues for urban growth management were studied, namely: (i estimations regarding the pace of urban sprawl, and (ii the identification of urban areas located in regions that would be affected by flash floods. Analyzing these phenomena require a lot of data in order to obtain good results, but in our case, the official data or field data was limited so we tried to obtain it by accessing two kinds of free sources of satellite data. First, we used Arc GIS tools to analyze (digital elevation model (DEM files in order to study the watershed and better identify the risk area. Second, we studied historical imagery in Google Earth to determine the age of each urban block. The urban growth rate in the risk areas had risen to 63.31% in 2001. Urban growth in the case study area had been influenced by house sizes, because most people were looking to live in bigger houses. The aforementioned problem can be observed by considering the increasing average house sizes from 2001 until 2013, where, especially in risky areas, the average of house sizes had grown from 223 m2 in 2001 to 318 m2 in 2013. The findings from this study would be useful to urban planners and government officials in helping them to make informed decisions on urban development to benefit the community, especially those living in areas at risk from flash flooding from heavy rain events.

Relative risk of visceral leishmaniasis in Brazil: a spatial analysis in urban area.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Valdelaine Etelvina Miranda de Araújo

2013-11-01

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Visceral leishmaniasis (VL is a vector-borne disease whose factors involved in transmission are poorly understood, especially in more urban and densely populated counties. In Brazil, the VL urbanization is a challenge for the control program. The goals were to identify the greater risk areas for human VL and the risk factors involved in transmission. METHODOLOGY: This is an ecological study on the relative risk of human VL. Spatial units of analysis were the coverage areas of the Basic Health Units (146 small-areas of Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais State, Brazil. Human VL cases, from 2007 to 2009 (n = 412, were obtained in the Brazilian Reportable Disease Information System. Bayesian approach was used to model the relative risk of VL including potential risk factors involved in transmission (canine infection, socioeconomic and environmental features and to identify the small-areas of greater risk to human VL. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The relative risk of VL was shown to be correlated with income, education, and the number of infected dogs per inhabitants. The estimates of relative risk of VL were higher than 1.0 in 54% of the areas (79/146. The spatial modeling highlighted 14 areas with the highest relative risk of VL and 12 of them are concentrated in the northern region of the city. CONCLUSIONS: The spatial analysis used in this study is useful for the identification of small-areas according to risk of human VL and presents operational applicability in control and surveillance program in an urban environment with an unequal spatial distribution of the disease. Thus the frequent monitoring of relative risk of human VL in small-areas is important to direct and prioritize the actions of the control program in urban environment, especially in big cities.

Characteristics of high- and low-risk individuals in the PRIORITY study

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tofte, N; Lindhardt, M; Adamova, K

2018-01-01

variable. In a logistic regression model including clinical variables known to be associated with diabetic kidney disease, estimated GFR, gender, log urinary albumin:creatinine ratio and use of renin-angiotensin system-blocking agents remained significant determinants of the CKD273 high-risk group: area......AIM: To compare clinical baseline data in individuals with Type 2 diabetes and normoalbuminuria, who are at high or low risk of diabetic kidney disease based on the urinary proteomics classifier CKD273. METHODS: We conducted a prospective, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled international...... multicentre clinical trial and observational study in participants with Type 2 diabetes and normoalbuminuria, stratified into high- or low-risk groups based on CKD273 score. Clinical baseline data for the whole cohort and stratified by risk groups are reported. The associations between CKD273 and traditional...

Rapid assessment of risks to a mobile marine mammal in an ecosystem-scale marine protected area.

Science.gov (United States)

Grech, A; Marsh, H

2008-06-01

Ecosystem-scale networks of marine protected areas (MPAs) are important conservation tools, but their effectiveness is difficult to quantify in a time frame appropriate to species conservation because of uncertainties in the data available. The dugong (Dugong dugon) is a mobile marine species that occurs in shallow inshore waters of an ecosystem-scale network of MPAs (the Great Barrier Reef World Heritage Area [GBRWHA]). We developed a rapid approach to assess risk to dugongs in the region and evaluate options to ameliorate that risk. We used expert opinion and a Delphi technique to identify and rank 5 human factors with the potential to adversely affect dugongs and their sea grass habitats: netting, indigenous hunting, trawling, vessel traffic, and poor-quality terrestrial runoff. We then quantified and compared the distribution of these factors with a spatially explicit model of dugong distribution. We estimated that approximately 96% of habitat of high conservation value for dugongs in the GBRWHA is at low risk from human activities. Using a sensitivity analysis, we found that to decrease risk, commercial netting or indigenous hunting had to be reduced in remote areas and the effects of vessel traffic, terrestrial runoff, and commercial netting had to be reduced in urban areas. This approach enabled us to compare and rank risks so as to identify the most severe risks and locate specific sites that require further management attention.

Behavioral Risk Factors: Selected Metropolitan Area Risk Trends (SMART) County Prevalence Data (2010 and prior)

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — 2002-2010. BRFSS SMART County Prevalence land line only data. The Selected Metropolitan Area Risk Trends (SMART) project uses the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance...

Behavioral Risk Factors: Selected Metropolitan Area Risk Trends (SMART) MMSA Prevalence Data (2010 and Prior)

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — 2002-2010. BRFSS SMART MMSA Prevalence land line only data. The Selected Metropolitan Area Risk Trends (SMART) project uses the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance...

Occupational risk factors have to be considered in the definition of high-risk lung cancer populations.

Science.gov (United States)

Wild, P; Gonzalez, M; Bourgkard, E; Courouble, N; Clément-Duchêne, C; Martinet, Y; Févotte, J; Paris, C

2012-03-27

The aim of this study was to compute attributable fractions (AF) to occupational factors in an area in North-Eastern France with high lung cancer rates and a past of mining and steel industry. A population-based case-control study among males aged 40-79 was conducted, including confirmed primary lung cancer cases from all hospitals of the study region. Controls were stratified by broad age-classes, district and socioeconomic classes. Detailed occupational and personal risk factors were obtained in face-to-face interviews. Cumulative occupational exposure indices were obtained from the questionnaires. Attributable fractions were computed from multiple unconditional logistic regression models. A total of 246 cases and 531 controls were included. The odds ratios (ORs) adjusted on cumulative smoking and family history of lung cancer increased significantly with the cumulative exposure indices to asbestos, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and crystalline silica, and with exposure to diesel motor exhaust. The AF for occupational factors exceeded 50%, the most important contributor being crystalline silica and asbestos. These AFs are higher than most published figures. This can be because of the highly industrialised area or methods for exposure assessments. Occupational factors are important risk factors and should not be forgotten when defining high-risk lung cancer populations.

Mapping geological at risk areas in the city of São Paulo: issues and results from the largest risk survey in Brazil

Science.gov (United States)

Pascarelli, Luciana; Macedo, Eduardo

2013-04-01

(25%) occupy areas with some occurrence probability of mass-movement processes (landslides, erosion, and fall of stone blocks). Together, the assessed areas cover about 13.5 km², which corresponds to about 1% of the City's territory, although they all are located in the outskirts regions. 105,816 homes were analyzed and, currently, 8% of this total is located in the most critical areas, classified as very high risk, which require immediate actions in order to stabilize them; 19% were classified as high risk and the rest - 73% - show more stable situation. Currently, about 115,000 people live in landslide-risk areas in the capital. The results, now complete and current, have been making possible reassessment and adjustment of the low-income intervention projects by the government, prioritizing housing, social-educational infrastructure, and basic-sanitation actions in areas of greatest susceptibility. The program of slum upgrading, the relocation of 5.000 families to safe places and actions participatory monitoring with communities deserves mention and were only possible after the correct diagnosis of risk situations in the city that, despite the large population, has no record deaths from landslides for more than two years.

Heavy metal pollution and ecological risk assessment of the paddy soils near a zinc-lead mining area in Hunan.

Science.gov (United States)

Lu, Sijin; Wang, Yeyao; Teng, Yanguo; Yu, Xuan

2015-10-01

Soil pollution by Cd, Hg, As, Pb, Cr, Cu, and Zn was characterized in the area of the mining and smelting of metal ores at Guiyang, northeast of Hunan Province. A total of 150 topsoil (0-20 cm) samples were collected in May 2012 with a nominal density of one sample per 4 km(2). High concentrations of heavy metals especially, Cd, Zn, and Pb were found in many of the samples taken from surrounding paddy soil, indicating a certain extent of spreading of heavy metal pollution. Sequential extraction technique and risk assessment code (RAC) were used to study the mobility of chemical forms of heavy metals in the soils and their ecological risk. The results reveal that Cd represents a high ecological risk due to its highest percentage of the exchangeable and carbonate fractions. The metals of Zn and Cu pose a medium risk, and the rest of the metals represent a low environmental risk. The range of the potential ecological risk of soil calculated by risk index (RI) was 123.5~2791.2 and revealed a considerable-high ecological risk in study area especially in the neighboring and surrounding the mining activities area. Additionally, cluster analyses suggested that metals such as Pb, As, Hg, Zn, and Cd could be from the same sources probably related to the acidic drainage and wind transport of dust. Cluster analysis also clearly distinguishes the samples with similar characteristics according to their spatial distribution. The results could be used during the ecological risk screening stage, in conjunction with total concentrations and metal fractionation values to better estimate ecological risk.

fMRI study of language activation in schizophrenia, schizoaffective disorder and in individuals genetically at high risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Xiaobo; Branch, Craig A; Ardekani, Babak A; Bertisch, Hilary; Hicks, Chindo; DeLisi, Lynn E

2007-11-01

Structural and functional abnormalities have been found in language-related brain regions in patients with schizophrenia. We previously reported findings pointing to differences in word processing between people with schizophrenia and individuals who are at high-risk for schizophrenia using a voxel-based (whole brain) fMRI approach. We now extend this finding to specifically examine functional activity in three language related cortical regions using a larger cohort of individuals. A visual lexical discrimination task was performed by 36 controls, 21 subjects at high genetic-risk for schizophrenia, and 20 patients with schizophrenia during blood oxygenation level dependent (BOLD) fMRI scanning. Activation in bilateral inferior frontal gyri (Brodmann's area 44-45), bilateral inferior parietal lobe (Brodmann's area 39-40), and bilateral superior temporal gyri (Brodmann's area 22) was investigated. For all subjects, two-tailed Pearson correlations were calculated between the computed laterality index and a series of cognitive test scores determining language functioning. Regional activation in Brodmann's area 44-45 was left lateralized in normal controls, while high-risk subjects and patients with schizophrenia or schizoaffective disorder showed more bilateral activation. No significant differences among the three diagnostic groups in the other two regions of interest (Brodmann's area 22 or areas 39-40) were found. Furthermore, the apparent reasons for loss of leftward language lateralization differed between groups. In high-risk subjects, the loss of lateralization was based on reduced left hemisphere activation, while in the patient group, it was due to increased right side activation. Language ability related cognitive scores were positively correlations with the laterality indices obtained from Brodmann's areas 44-45 in the high-risk group, and with the laterality indices from Brodmann's areas 22 and 44-45 in the patient group. This study reinforces previous

Utility of sentinel node biopsy in patients with high-risk cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Allen, J E; Stolle, L B

2015-01-01

BACKGROUND: Currently there is no consensual agreement on the standard use of Sentinel Lymph Node Biopsy (SLNB) in staging of high-risk patients. OBJECTIVE: The objective was to define the predictive value and role of SLNB combined with the different high-risk factors to determine which patients...... cm. Sensitivity, specificity and NPV for a tumor localized at a high-risk area were 72.63%, 100% and 96.74%, respectively. Specificity was 100% as was NPV for immunosuppression. CONCLUSION: SLNB has a high NPV and low false negative rate and carries a low risk of complications. SLNB may prove...

Improving risk estimates of runoff producing areas: formulating variable source areas as a bivariate process.

Science.gov (United States)

Cheng, Xiaoya; Shaw, Stephen B; Marjerison, Rebecca D; Yearick, Christopher D; DeGloria, Stephen D; Walter, M Todd

2014-05-01

Predicting runoff producing areas and their corresponding risks of generating storm runoff is important for developing watershed management strategies to mitigate non-point source pollution. However, few methods for making these predictions have been proposed, especially operational approaches that would be useful in areas where variable source area (VSA) hydrology dominates storm runoff. The objective of this study is to develop a simple approach to estimate spatially-distributed risks of runoff production. By considering the development of overland flow as a bivariate process, we incorporated both rainfall and antecedent soil moisture conditions into a method for predicting VSAs based on the Natural Resource Conservation Service-Curve Number equation. We used base-flow immediately preceding storm events as an index of antecedent soil wetness status. Using nine sub-basins of the Upper Susquehanna River Basin, we demonstrated that our estimated runoff volumes and extent of VSAs agreed with observations. We further demonstrated a method for mapping these areas in a Geographic Information System using a Soil Topographic Index. The proposed methodology provides a new tool for watershed planners for quantifying runoff risks across watersheds, which can be used to target water quality protection strategies. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Climate Influence on Emerging Risk Areas for Rift Valley Fever Epidemics in Tanzania.

Science.gov (United States)

Mweya, Clement N; Mboera, Leonard E G; Kimera, Sharadhuli I

2017-07-01

Rift Valley Fever (RVF) is a climate-related arboviral infection of animals and humans. Climate is thought to represent a threat toward emerging risk areas for RVF epidemics globally. The objective of this study was to evaluate influence of climate on distribution of suitable breeding habitats for Culex pipiens complex, potential mosquito vector responsible for transmission and distribution of disease epidemics risk areas in Tanzania. We used ecological niche models to estimate potential distribution of disease risk areas based on vectors and disease co-occurrence data approach. Climatic variables for the current and future scenarios were used as model inputs. Changes in mosquito vectors' habitat suitability in relation to disease risk areas were estimated. We used partial receiver operating characteristic and the area under the curves approach to evaluate model predictive performance and significance. Habitat suitability for Cx. pipiens complex indicated broad-scale potential for change and shift in the distribution of the vectors and disease for both 2020 and 2050 climatic scenarios. Risk areas indicated more intensification in the areas surrounding Lake Victoria and northeastern part of the country through 2050 climate scenario. Models show higher probability of emerging risk areas spreading toward the western parts of Tanzania from northeastern areas and decrease in the southern part of the country. Results presented here identified sites for consideration to guide surveillance and control interventions to reduce risk of RVF disease epidemics in Tanzania. A collaborative approach is recommended to develop and adapt climate-related disease control and prevention strategies.

Deflation Risk in the Euro Area and Central Bank Credibility

NARCIS (Netherlands)

G. Galati (Gabriele); Z. Gorgi (Zion); R. Moessner (Richhild); C. Zhou (Chen)

2016-01-01

textabstractThis paper investigates how the perceived risk that the euro area will experience deflation has evolved over time, and what this risk implies for the credibility of the ECB. We use a novel data set on market participants’ perceptions of short- to long-term deflation risk implied by

Radiation exposure map based on fuzzy logic for the representation of areas with high natural background

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vasconcelos, Wagner Eustaquio de; Lira, Carlos Alberto Brayner de Oliveira

2009-01-01

The identification of areas with high concentrations of natural radionuclides is an important task in classifying these areas in relation to the health risk for residents in the region. The aim of this work is to identify areas of high exposure to nuclear radiation using a geographic representation based on the theory of fuzzy sets. Radiometric data obtained from previous works developed in a region of high concentrations in natural uranium were used to create a fuzzy map of the local radiation levels. During the image processing, a nonlinear filter was applied to eliminate noise i.e. to reduce isolated pixels that would eventually cause major uncertainties in the results. A resulting image was geographically positioned (WGS40) and obtained in gray scale. This image was fuzzified for membership functions that represent linguistic variables as low exposure, medium exposure and high exposure. After representing the membership grade in a RGB (red, green and blue) image it was possible to visualize the radiation level in the area of exposure. When compared to data from the region, results demonstrated the good efficiency of the technique here employed for the representation of areas with high radioactivity levels. The image obtained also provided important information about those areas where exposure to radiation is more pronounced. Hence, the fuzzy map can be applied in decision-making of experts when a risk situation is identified. (author)

Serum osteoprotegerin levels and mammographic density among high-risk women.

Science.gov (United States)

Moran, Olivia; Zaman, Tasnim; Eisen, Andrea; Demsky, Rochelle; Blackmore, Kristina; Knight, Julia A; Elser, Christine; Ginsburg, Ophira; Zbuk, Kevin; Yaffe, Martin; Narod, Steven A; Salmena, Leonardo; Kotsopoulos, Joanne

2018-06-01

Mammographic density is a risk factor for breast cancer but the mechanism behind this association is unclear. The receptor activator of nuclear factor κB (RANK)/RANK ligand (RANKL) pathway has been implicated in the development of breast cancer. Given the role of RANK signaling in mammary epithelial cell proliferation, we hypothesized this pathway may also be associated with mammographic density. Osteoprotegerin (OPG), a decoy receptor for RANKL, is known to inhibit RANK signaling. Thus, it is of interest to evaluate whether OPG levels modify breast cancer risk through mammographic density. We quantified serum OPG levels in 57 premenopausal and 43 postmenopausal women using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Cumulus was used to measure percent density, dense area, and non-dense area for each mammographic image. Subjects were classified into high versus low OPG levels based on the median serum OPG level in the entire cohort (115.1 pg/mL). Multivariate models were used to assess the relationship between serum OPG levels and the measures of mammographic density. Serum OPG levels were not associated with mammographic density among premenopausal women (P ≥ 0.42). Among postmenopausal women, those with low serum OPG levels had higher mean percent mammographic density (20.9% vs. 13.7%; P = 0.04) and mean dense area (23.4 cm 2 vs. 15.2 cm 2 ; P = 0.02) compared to those with high serum OPG levels after covariate adjustment. These findings suggest that low OPG levels may be associated with high mammographic density, particularly in postmenopausal women. Targeting RANK signaling may represent a plausible, non-surgical prevention option for high-risk women with high mammographic density, especially those with low circulating OPG levels.

Integrated structural design of nuclear power plants for high seismic areas

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rieck, P.J.

1979-01-01

A design approach which structurally interconnects NPP buildings to be located in high seismic areas is described. The design evolution of a typical 600 MWe steel cylindrical containment PWR is described as the plant is structurally upgraded for higher seismic requirements, while maintaining the original plant layout. The plant design is presented as having separate reactor building and auxiliary structures for a low seismic area (0.20 g) and is structurally combined at the foundation for location in a higher seismic area (0.30 g). The evolution is completed by a fully integrated design which structurally connects the reactor building and auxiliary structures at superstructure elevations as well as foundation levels for location in very severe seismic risk areas (0.50 g). (orig.)

Combinations of Quality and Frequency of Immunization Activities to Stop and Prevent Poliovirus Transmission in the High-Risk Area of Northwest Nigeria.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Radboud J Duintjer Tebbens

Full Text Available Frequent supplemental immunization activities (SIAs with the oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV represent the primary strategy to interrupt poliovirus transmission in the last endemic areas.Using a differential-equation based poliovirus transmission model tailored to high-risk areas in Nigeria, we perform one-way and multi-way sensitivity analyses to demonstrate the impact of different assumptions about routine immunization (RI and the frequency and quality of SIAs on population immunity to transmission and persistence or emergence of circulating vaccine-derived polioviruses (cVDPVs after OPV cessation.More trivalent OPV use remains critical to avoid serotype 2 cVDPVs. RI schedules with or without inactivated polio vaccine (IPV could significantly improve population immunity if coverage increases well above current levels in under-vaccinated subpopulations. Similarly, the impact of SIAs on overall population immunity and cVDPV risks depends on their ability to reach under-vaccinated groups (i.e., SIA quality. Lower SIA coverage in the under-vaccinated subpopulation results in a higher frequency of SIAs needed to maintain high enough population immunity to avoid cVDPVs after OPV cessation.National immunization program managers in northwest Nigeria should recognize the benefits of increasing RI and SIA quality. Sufficiently improving RI coverage and improving SIA quality will reduce the frequency of SIAs required to stop and prevent future poliovirus transmission. Better information about the incremental costs to identify and reach under-vaccinated children would help determine the optimal balance between spending to increase SIA and RI quality and spending to increase SIA frequency.

Combinations of Quality and Frequency of Immunization Activities to Stop and Prevent Poliovirus Transmission in the High-Risk Area of Northwest Nigeria.

Science.gov (United States)

Duintjer Tebbens, Radboud J; Pallansch, Mark A; Wassilak, Steven G F; Cochi, Stephen L; Thompson, Kimberly M

2015-01-01

Frequent supplemental immunization activities (SIAs) with the oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) represent the primary strategy to interrupt poliovirus transmission in the last endemic areas. Using a differential-equation based poliovirus transmission model tailored to high-risk areas in Nigeria, we perform one-way and multi-way sensitivity analyses to demonstrate the impact of different assumptions about routine immunization (RI) and the frequency and quality of SIAs on population immunity to transmission and persistence or emergence of circulating vaccine-derived polioviruses (cVDPVs) after OPV cessation. More trivalent OPV use remains critical to avoid serotype 2 cVDPVs. RI schedules with or without inactivated polio vaccine (IPV) could significantly improve population immunity if coverage increases well above current levels in under-vaccinated subpopulations. Similarly, the impact of SIAs on overall population immunity and cVDPV risks depends on their ability to reach under-vaccinated groups (i.e., SIA quality). Lower SIA coverage in the under-vaccinated subpopulation results in a higher frequency of SIAs needed to maintain high enough population immunity to avoid cVDPVs after OPV cessation. National immunization program managers in northwest Nigeria should recognize the benefits of increasing RI and SIA quality. Sufficiently improving RI coverage and improving SIA quality will reduce the frequency of SIAs required to stop and prevent future poliovirus transmission. Better information about the incremental costs to identify and reach under-vaccinated children would help determine the optimal balance between spending to increase SIA and RI quality and spending to increase SIA frequency.

Brachytherapy boost and cancer-specific mortality in favorable high-risk versus other high-risk prostate cancer

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vinayak Muralidhar

2016-02-01

Full Text Available Purpose : Recent retrospective data suggest that brachytherapy (BT boost may confer a cancer-specific survival benefit in radiation-managed high-risk prostate cancer. We sought to determine whether this survival benefit would extend to the recently defined favorable high-risk subgroup of prostate cancer patients (T1c, Gleason 4 + 4 = 8, PSA 20 ng/ml. Material and methods: We identified 45,078 patients in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database with cT1c-T3aN0M0 intermediate- to high-risk prostate cancer diagnosed 2004-2011 treated with external beam radiation therapy (EBRT only or EBRT plus BT. We used multivariable competing risks regression to determine differences in the rate of prostate cancer-specific mortality (PCSM after EBRT + BT or EBRT alone in patients with intermediate-risk, favorable high-risk, or other high-risk disease after adjusting for demographic and clinical factors. Results : EBRT + BT was not associated with an improvement in 5-year PCSM compared to EBRT alone among patients with favorable high-risk disease (1.6% vs. 1.8%; adjusted hazard ratio [AHR]: 0.56; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.21-1.52, p = 0.258, and intermediate-risk disease (0.8% vs. 1.0%, AHR: 0.83, 95% CI: 0.59-1.16, p = 0.270. Others with high-risk disease had significantly lower 5-year PCSM when treated with EBRT + BT compared with EBRT alone (3.9% vs. 5.3%; AHR: 0.73; 95% CI: 0.55-0.95; p = 0.022. Conclusions : Brachytherapy boost is associated with a decreased rate of PCSM in some men with high-risk prostate cancer but not among patients with favorable high-risk disease. Our results suggest that the recently-defined “favorable high-risk” category may be used to personalize therapy for men with high-risk disease.

Risk Perception and Vulnerability of Wetlands Areas on South ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

Canadian specialists are contributing to research examining the risks to and vulnerability of wetland areas along the Atlantic coast of South America. These areas along the coastline protect ecosystems provide flood control, stabilize shorelines, replenish groundwater, and purify water. They also act as reservoirs of ...

Local scale multiple quantitative risk assessment and uncertainty evaluation in a densely urbanised area (Brescia, Italy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Lari

2012-11-01

Full Text Available The study of the interactions between natural and anthropogenic risks is necessary for quantitative risk assessment in areas affected by active natural processes, high population density and strong economic activities.

We present a multiple quantitative risk assessment on a 420 km² high risk area (Brescia and surroundings, Lombardy, Northern Italy, for flood, seismic and industrial accident scenarios. Expected economic annual losses are quantified for each scenario and annual exceedance probability-loss curves are calculated. Uncertainty on the input variables is propagated by means of three different methodologies: Monte-Carlo-Simulation, First Order Second Moment, and point estimate.

Expected losses calculated by means of the three approaches show similar values for the whole study area, about 64 000 000 € for earthquakes, about 10 000 000 € for floods, and about 3000 € for industrial accidents. Locally, expected losses assume quite different values if calculated with the three different approaches, with differences up to 19%.

The uncertainties on the expected losses and their propagation, performed with the three methods, are compared and discussed in the paper. In some cases, uncertainty reaches significant values (up to almost 50% of the expected loss. This underlines the necessity of including uncertainty in quantitative risk assessment, especially when it is used as a support for territorial planning and decision making. The method is developed thinking at a possible application at a regional-national scale, on the basis of data available in Italy over the national territory.

Early brain development in infants at high risk for autism spectrum disorder.

Science.gov (United States)

Hazlett, Heather Cody; Gu, Hongbin; Munsell, Brent C; Kim, Sun Hyung; Styner, Martin; Wolff, Jason J; Elison, Jed T; Swanson, Meghan R; Zhu, Hongtu; Botteron, Kelly N; Collins, D Louis; Constantino, John N; Dager, Stephen R; Estes, Annette M; Evans, Alan C; Fonov, Vladimir S; Gerig, Guido; Kostopoulos, Penelope; McKinstry, Robert C; Pandey, Juhi; Paterson, Sarah; Pruett, John R; Schultz, Robert T; Shaw, Dennis W; Zwaigenbaum, Lonnie; Piven, Joseph

2017-02-15

Brain enlargement has been observed in children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD), but the timing of this phenomenon, and the relationship between ASD and the appearance of behavioural symptoms, are unknown. Retrospective head circumference and longitudinal brain volume studies of two-year olds followed up at four years of age have provided evidence that increased brain volume may emerge early in development. Studies of infants at high familial risk of autism can provide insight into the early development of autism and have shown that characteristic social deficits in ASD emerge during the latter part of the first and in the second year of life. These observations suggest that prospective brain-imaging studies of infants at high familial risk of ASD might identify early postnatal changes in brain volume that occur before an ASD diagnosis. In this prospective neuroimaging study of 106 infants at high familial risk of ASD and 42 low-risk infants, we show that hyperexpansion of the cortical surface area between 6 and 12 months of age precedes brain volume overgrowth observed between 12 and 24 months in 15 high-risk infants who were diagnosed with autism at 24 months. Brain volume overgrowth was linked to the emergence and severity of autistic social deficits. A deep-learning algorithm that primarily uses surface area information from magnetic resonance imaging of the brain of 6-12-month-old individuals predicted the diagnosis of autism in individual high-risk children at 24 months (with a positive predictive value of 81% and a sensitivity of 88%). These findings demonstrate that early brain changes occur during the period in which autistic behaviours are first emerging.

Risk analysis and evaluation of agricultural drought disaster in the major grain-producing areas, China

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Zongtang Xie

2016-09-01

Full Text Available The analysis and evaluation of agricultural drought risk can assist in reducing regional disasters and agricultural drought losses. Because of the uncertainties and incomplete agricultural drought information, this paper employed an information diffusion technology and information matrix to identify a drought disaster risk distribution and to quantify the relationship between the annual drought-affected rate and the grain production losses in China's major grain-producing areas. From the assessment results, provincial drought disaster risk spatial distribution maps for each major grain-producing area in China were obtained. These risk patterns showed that the probability of drought fell when the annual drought-covered rate and the annual drought-affected rate increased, and that the high risk areas were located primarily in China's northern and central provinces. These results can provide the basis for the development of effective drought mitigation strategies which would be able to inform possible drought situations and allow for easier decision-making on drought resistance strategies. The fuzzy relationship between the annual drought-affected rate and the drought-caused grain production losses provides vital information for the development of disaster compensation plans. Furthermore, the results of this study indicated that the proposed methods had superior detection stability and higher precision. We hope that by conducting such agricultural drought risk analysis, the results are able to provide the basis for the development of drought mitigation strategies to reduce future losses.

Risk assessments for the disposal of high level radioactive wastes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, C.F.

1975-01-01

The risks associated with the disposal of high level wastes derive from the potential for release of radioactive materials into the environment. The assessment of these risks requires a methodology for risk analysis, an identification of the radioactive sources, and a method by which to express the relative hazard of the various radionuclides that comprise the high level waste. The development of a methodology for risk analysis is carried out after a review of previous work in the area of probabilistic risk assessment. The methodology suggested involves the probabilistic analysis of a general accident consequence distribution. In this analysis, the frequency aspect of the distribution is treated separately from the normalized probability function. At the final stage of the analysis, the frequency and probability characteristics of the distribution are recombined to provide an estimate of the risk. The characterization of the radioactive source term is accomplished using the ORIGEN computer code. Calculations are carried out for various reactor types and fuel cycles, and the overall waste hazard for a projected thirty-five year nuclear power program is determined

Epidemiological studies in high-background radiation areas its potential contribution to evaluating risk of low-level radiation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Akiba, Suminori; Nair, R.K.; Nakamura, Seiichi; Mizuno, Shoich

2008-01-01

The health effect of low-level ionizing radiation is yet unclear. As pointed out by Upton in his review (Upton, 1989), low-level ionizing radiation seems to have different biological effects from what high-level radiation has. Its evaluation requires epidemiological studies of scale-large cohorts (ICRP 99, 2005) such of atomic bomb survivors and nuclear workers. Epidemiological studies in high-background radiation (HBR) areas are also expected to make a significant contribution toward this end. Among several HBR areas in the world, Yangjiang, Guangdong Province in China, Karunagappally in Kerala State of India, Manawalakurichi and Koodankulam in Tamil Nadu of India, and Ramsar in Iran are important areas where epidemiological studies are possible, because of their relatively high background radiation levels and large population sizes. (author)

An exploration of spatial risk assessment for soil protection: estimating risk and establishing priority areas for soil protection.

Science.gov (United States)

Kibblewhite, M G; Bellamy, P H; Brewer, T R; Graves, A R; Dawson, C A; Rickson, R J; Truckell, I; Stuart, J

2014-03-01

Methods for the spatial estimation of risk of harm to soil by erosion by water and wind and by soil organic matter decline are explored. Rates of harm are estimated for combinations of soil type and land cover (as a proxy for hazard frequency) and used to estimate risk of soil erosion and loss of soil organic carbon (SOC) for 1 km(2)pixels. Scenarios are proposed for defining the acceptability of risk of harm to soil: the most precautionary one corresponds to no net harm after natural regeneration of soil (i.e. a 1 in 20 chance of exceeding an erosion rate of soils and a carbon stock decline of 0 tha(-1)y(-1) for organic soils). Areas at higher and lower than possible acceptable risk are mapped. The veracity of boundaries is compromised if areas of unacceptable risk are mapped to administrative boundaries. Errors in monitoring change in risk of harm to soil and inadequate information on risk reduction measures' efficacy, at landscape scales, make it impossible to use or monitor quantitative targets for risk reduction adequately. The consequences for priority area definition of expressing varying acceptable risk of harm to soil as a varying probability of exceeding a fixed level of harm, or, a varying level of harm being exceeded with a fixed probability, are discussed. Soil data and predictive models for rates of harm to soil would need considerable development and validation to implement a priority area approach robustly. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Not all risks are equal: the risk taking inventory for high-risk sports.

Science.gov (United States)

Woodman, Tim; Barlow, Matt; Bandura, Comille; Hill, Miles; Kupciw, Dominika; Macgregor, Alexandra

2013-10-01

Although high-risk sport participants are typically considered a homogenous risk-taking population, attitudes to risk within the high-risk domain can vary considerably. As no validated measure allows researchers to assess risk taking within this domain, we validated the Risk Taking Inventory (RTI) for high-risk sport across four studies. The RTI comprises seven items across two factors: deliberate risk taking and precautionary behaviors. In Study 1 (n = 341), the inventory was refined and tested via a confirmatory factor analysis used in an exploratory fashion. The subsequent three studies confirmed the RTI's good model-data fit via three further separate confirmatory factor analyses. In Study 2 (n = 518) and in Study 3 (n = 290), concurrent validity was also confirmed via associations with other related traits (sensation seeking, behavioral activation, behavioral inhibition, impulsivity, self-esteem, extraversion, and conscientiousness). In Study 4 (n = 365), predictive validity was confirmed via associations with mean accidents and mean close calls in the high-risk domain. Finally, in Study 4, the self-report version of the inventory was significantly associated with an informant version of the inventory. The measure will allow researchers and practitioners to investigate risk taking as a variable that is conceptually distinct from participation in a high-risk sport.

Staying Alive! Training High-Risk Teams for Self Correction

Science.gov (United States)

Slack, Kelley; Noe, Raymond; Weaver, Sallie

2011-01-01

Research examining teams working in high-risk operations has been lacking. The present symposium showcases research on team training that helps to optimize team performance in environments characterized by life or death situations arising spontaneously after long periods of mundane activity by pulling experts from diverse areas of industry: space flight, health care, and medical simulation.

Risk Factors for Death from Visceral Leishmaniasis in an Urban Area of Brazil.

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Angelita F Druzian

Full Text Available Over the last three decades, the epidemiological profile of visceral leishmaniasis (VL has changed with epidemics occurring in large urban centers of Brazil, an increase in HIV/AIDS co-infection, and a significant increase in mortality. The objective of this study was to identify the risk factors associated with death among adult patients with VL from an urban endemic area of Brazil.A prospective cohort study included 134 adult patients with VL admitted to the University Hospital of the Federal University of Mato Grosso do Sul between August 2011 and August 2013.Patients ranged from 18 to 93 years old, with a mean age of 43.6 (±15.7%. Of these patients, 36.6% were co-infected with HIV/AIDS, and the mortality rate was 21.6%. In a multivariate analysis, the risk factors associated with death were secondary bacterial infection (42.86, 5.05-363.85, relapse (12.17, 2.06-71.99, edema (7.74, 1.33-45.05 and HIV/AIDS co-infection (7.33, 1.22-43.98.VL has a high mortality rate in adults from endemic urban areas, especially when coinciding with high rates of HIV/AIDS co-infection.

Pesticide residues in leafy vegetables and human health risk assessment in North Central agricultural areas of Chile.

Science.gov (United States)

Elgueta, Sebastian; Moyano, Stella; Sepúlveda, Paulina; Quiroz, Carlos; Correa, Arturo

2017-06-01

To investigate pesticide residue concentrations and potential human health risk, a study was conducted in 118 leafy vegetable samples collected in 2014-2015 from the North Central agricultural areas of Chile. The pesticide residues were determined using the multiresidue QuEChERS method by gas chromatography as well as high-performance liquid chromatography. The results indicated that 27% of the total samples contained pesticide residues above the maximum residue limits of each active ingredient. The maximum estimated daily intake obtained for carbon disulphide (CS 2 ), methamidophos, azoxystrobin and cypermethrin were 0.57, 0.07, 0.06 and 0.05 mg kg -1 , respectively, which was higher than their acceptable daily intake. It is concluded that inhabitants of the North Central agricultural area of Chile are not exposed to health risks through the consumption of leafy vegetables with the exception of methamidophos. Nevertheless, the high levels of methamidophos detected in leafy vegetables could be considered a potential chronic health risk.

Regional Risk Assessment for the analysis of the risks related to storm surge extreme events in the coastal area of the North Adriatic Sea.

Science.gov (United States)

Rizzi, Jonathan; Torresan, Silvia; Gallina, Valentina; Critto, Andrea; Marcomini, Antonio

2013-04-01

Europe's coast faces a variety of climate change threats from extreme high tides, storm surges and rising sea levels. In particular, it is very likely that mean sea level rise will contribute to upward trends in extreme coastal high water levels, thus posing higher risks to coastal locations currently experiencing coastal erosion and inundation processes. In 2007 the European Commission approved the Flood Directive (2007/60/EC), which has the main purpose to establish a framework for the assessment and management of flood risks for inland and coastal areas, thus reducing the adverse consequences for human health, the environment, cultural heritage and economic activities. Improvements in scientific understanding are thus needed to inform decision-making about the best strategies for mitigating and managing storm surge risks in coastal areas. The CLIMDAT project is aimed at improving the understanding of the risks related to extreme storm surge events in the coastal area of the North Adriatic Sea (Italy), considering potential climate change scenarios. The project implements a Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology developed in the FP7 KULTURisk project for the assessment of physical/environmental impacts posed by flood hazards and employs the DEcision support SYstem for Coastal climate change impact assessment (DESYCO) for the application of the methodology to the case study area. The proposed RRA methodology is aimed at the identification and prioritization of targets and areas at risk from water-related natural hazards in the considered region at the meso-scale. To this aim, it integrates information about extreme storm surges with bio-geophysical and socio-economic information (e.g. vegetation cover, slope, soil type, population density) of the analyzed receptors (i.e. people, economic activities, cultural heritages, natural and semi-natural systems). Extreme storm surge hazard scenarios are defined using tide gauge time series coming from 28 tide gauge

[Physical process based risk assessment of groundwater pollution in the mining area].

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Fa-Sheng; Cheng, Pin; Zhang, Bo

2014-04-01

Case studies of groundwater pollution risk assessment at home and abroad generally start from groundwater vulnerability, without considering the influence of characteristic pollutants on the consequences of pollution too much. Vulnerability is the natural sensitivity of the environment to pollutants. Risk assessment of groundwater pollution should reflect the movement and distribution of pollutants in groundwater. In order to improve the risk assessment theory and method of groundwater pollution, a physical process based risk assessment methodology for groundwater pollution was proposed in a mining area. According to the sensitivity of the economic and social conditions and the possible distribution of pollutants in the future, the spatial distribution of risk levels in aquifer was ranged before hand, and the pollutant source intensity corresponding to each risk level was deduced accordingly. By taking it as the criterion for the classification of groundwater pollution risk assessment, the groundwater pollution risk in the mining area was evaluated by simulating the migration of pollutants in the vadose zone and aquifer. The result show that the risk assessment method of groundwater pollution based on physical process can give the concentration distribution of pollutants and the risk level in the spatial and temporal. For single punctuate polluted area, it gives detailed risk characterization, which is better than the risk assessment method that based on aquifer intrinsic vulnerability index, and it is applicable to the risk assessment of existing polluted sites, optimizing the future sites and providing design parameters for the site construction.

Contamination and risk of heavy metals in soils and sediments from a typical plastic waste recycling area in North China.

Science.gov (United States)

Tang, Zhenwu; Zhang, Lianzhen; Huang, Qifei; Yang, Yufei; Nie, Zhiqiang; Cheng, Jiali; Yang, Jun; Wang, Yuwen; Chai, Miao

2015-12-01

Plastic wastes are increasingly being recycled in many countries. However, available information on the metals released into the environment during recycling processes is rare. In this study, the contamination features and risks of eight heavy metals in soils and sediments were investigated in Wen'an, a typical plastic recycling area in North China. The surface soils and sediments have suffered from moderate to high metal pollution and in particular, high Cd and Hg pollution. The mean concentrations of Cd and Hg were 0.355 and 0.408 mg kg(-1), respectively, in the soils and 1.53 and 2.10 mg kg(-1), respectively, in the sediments. The findings suggested that there is considerable to high potential ecological risks in more than half of the soils and high potential ecological risk in almost all sediments. Although the health risk levels from exposure to soil metals were acceptable for adults, the non-carcinogenic risks to local children exceeded the acceptable level. Source assessment indicated that heavy metals in soils and sediments were mainly derived from inputs from poorly controlled plastic waste recycling operations in this area. The results suggested that the risks associated with heavy metal pollution from plastic waste recycling should be of great concern. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk assessment for sustainable food security in China according to integrated food security--taking Dongting Lake area for example.

Science.gov (United States)

Qi, Xiaoxing; Liu, Liming; Liu, Yabin; Yao, Lan

2013-06-01

Integrated food security covers three aspects: food quantity security, food quality security, and sustainable food security. Because sustainable food security requires that food security must be compatible with sustainable development, the risk assessment of sustainable food security is becoming one of the most important issues. This paper mainly focuses on the characteristics of sustainable food security problems in the major grain-producing areas in China. We establish an index system based on land resources and eco-environmental conditions and apply a dynamic assessment method based on status assessments and trend analysis models to overcome the shortcomings of the static evaluation method. Using fuzzy mathematics, the risks are categorized into four grades: negligible risk, low risk, medium risk, and high risk. A case study was conducted in one of China's major grain-producing areas: Dongting Lake area. The results predict that the status of the sustainable food security in the Dongting Lake area is unsatisfactory for the foreseeable future. The number of districts at the medium-risk range will increase from six to ten by 2015 due to increasing population pressure, a decrease in the cultivated area, and a decrease in the effective irrigation area. Therefore, appropriate policies and measures should be put forward to improve it. The results could also provide direct support for an early warning system-which could be used to monitor food security trends or nutritional status so to inform policy makers of impending food shortages-to prevent sustainable food security risk based on some classical systematic methods. This is the first research of sustainable food security in terms of risk assessment, from the perspective of resources and the environment, at the regional scale.

A decision-support scheme for mapping endangered areas in pest risk analysis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Baker, R.H.A.; Benninga, J.; Bremmer, J.; Brunel, S.; Dupin, M.; Eyre, D.; Ilieva, Z.; Jarosik, V.; Kehlenbeck, H.; Kriticos, D.J.; Makowski, D.; Pergl, J.; Reynaud, P.; Robinet, C.; Soliman, T.; Werf, van der W.; Worner, S.

2012-01-01

This paper describes a decision-support scheme (DSS) for mapping the area where economically important loss is likely to occur (the endangered area). It has been designed by the PRATIQUE project to help pest risk analysts address the numerous risk mapping challenges and decide on the most suitable

Coverage of violence in risk areas: case of the Ciudad Juárez´Journalist Association

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

José Luis González-Esteban

2016-11-01

Full Text Available This research analyzes the situation of journalism in a high risk area, Ciudad Juarez, Mexico. The analysis is based on the knowledge and analysis of the training activity, violence and corruption denounced by Juarez Journalists Association, founded and run by women journalists. A meeting with journalists of the association and in-depth interviews are the main methodological tools to understand the meaning and value of this group of juarenses journalists. In the same way this article analyzes, through a quantitative methodology, the strategy of activism and the international projection of the association through their social networks. In addition, research is completed with a content analysis about the prevalence and significance of the ‘red note’ in El Diario de Juárez, the main newspaper in this border area, which even has a delegation in the US city of El Paso. Coverage of violence in high risk areas gives a special value to journalism in newspapers like the aforementioned and corporate work of this group of juarenses journalists.

Environmental risks associated to wind erosion in a metal mining area from SE Spain

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garcia Fernandez, G.; Romero Diaz, A.

2009-01-01

Soils and mining wastes from the Mediterranean mining area placed in the Sierra Minera Mountains are highly enriched in heavy metals such as lead and zinc, but also other metals such as cadmium and arsenic. Wind erosion in this area could be considered extremely high and hazards associated to this eroded sediments seems to be high because the huge amount of metals present in this wastes. Therefore, combination of high erosion rates and high metal concentration in this mining waste, make those environmental risks can be considered high for the surrounding ecosystems, but also for public health of the nearby villages and towns. In order, to study these wind erosion processes over these mining materials, some experiments for the evaluation of the transportation of soil particles were carried out. Erosion rates in this realm is particularly important during spring months, when increased activity of the eastern winds brings intense soil dragging, with strong effects on the metals dispersion, including the massive removal of sediments. (Author) 16 refs.

Environmental risks associated to wind erosion in a metal mining area from SE Spain

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Garcia Fernandez, G.; Romero Diaz, A.

2009-07-01

Soils and mining wastes from the Mediterranean mining area placed in the Sierra Minera Mountains are highly enriched in heavy metals such as lead and zinc, but also other metals such as cadmium and arsenic. Wind erosion in this area could be considered extremely high and hazards associated to this eroded sediments seems to be high because the huge amount of metals present in this wastes. Therefore, combination of high erosion rates and high metal concentration in this mining waste, make those environmental risks can be considered high for the surrounding ecosystems, but also for public health of the nearby villages and towns. In order, to study these wind erosion processes over these mining materials, some experiments for the evaluation of the transportation of soil particles were carried out. Erosion rates in this realm is particularly important during spring months, when increased activity of the eastern winds brings intense soil dragging, with strong effects on the metals dispersion, including the massive removal of sediments. (Author) 16 refs.

High Resolution Tsunami Modelling for the Evaluation of Potential Risk Areas in Setubal

Science.gov (United States)

Ribeiro, João.; Silva, Adélio; Leitão, Paulo

2010-05-01

Modeling has a relevant role in today's natural hazards mitigation planning as it can cover a wide range of natural phenomena. This is also the case for an event like a tsunami. In order to support the urban planning or prepare emergency response plans it is of major importance to be able to properly evaluate the vulnerability associated with different areas and/or equipments. The use of high resolution models can provide relevant information about the most probable inundation areas which complemented with other data such as the type of buildings, location of prioritary equipments, etc., may effectively contribute to better identify the most vulnerable zones, define rescue and escape routes and adequate the emergency plans to the constraints associated to these type of events. In the framework of FP6 SCHEMA project these concepts are being applied to different test sites and a detailed evaluation of the vulnerability of buildings and people to a tsunami event is being evaluated. One of the sites selected it is located in Portugal, in the Atlantic coast, and it refers to Setúbal area which is located about 40 km south of Lisbon. Within this site two specific locations are being evaluated: one is the city of Setúbal (in the Sado estuary right margin) and the other is the Tróia peninsula (in the Sado estuary left margin). Setúbal city is a medium size town with about 114,000 inhabitants while Tróia is a touristic resort located in a shallow area with a high seasonal occupation and has the river Sado as one of the main sources of income to the city. Setúbal was one of the Portuguese villages that was seriously damaged by the of 1755 earthquake event. The 1755 earthquake, also known as the Great Lisbon Earthquake, took place on 1 November 1755, the catholic holiday of All Saints, around 09:30 AM. The earthquake was followed by a tsunami and fires which caused a huge destruction of Lisboa and Setúbal In the framework of the present study, a detailed evaluation of

High-risk factors of parotid lymph node metastasis in nasopharyngeal carcinoma: a case-control study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Hong-zhi; Cao, Cai-neng; Luo, Jing-wei; Yi, Jun-lin; Huang, Xiao-dong; Zhang, Shi-ping; Wang, Kai; Qu, Yuan; Xiao, Jian-ping; Li, Su-yan; Gao, Li; Xu, Guo-zhen

2016-01-01

Although parotid-sparing IMRT decreased the dose distribution of parotid, parotid region recurrence has been reported. Prophylactic irradiation in parotid area would be necessary in patients with high risk of parotid lymph node metastasis (PLNM). This study was to detect the high-risk factors of PLNM in nasopharyngeal carcinoma. This was a 1:2 case-control study. All patients in this study were newly diagnosed NPC with N2-3 classification from January 2005 to December 2012. Cases were 22 sides with ipsilateral PLNM. Controls were 44 patients who were randomly selected from N2-3 disease in database. 20/1096 (1.82 %) NPC patients were found PLNM. Sum of the longest diameter for multiple lymph nodes (SLD) in level II was larger in case group than that in control group (6.0 cm vs. 3.6 cm, p = 0.003). Level II lymph node necrosis, level Va/b involvement, and rare neck areas involvement were more common in case group (p = 0.016, p = 0.034, and p < 0.001, respectively). RPN, level III, and level IV metastases showed no significant difference between the two groups. Multivariate analysis in logistic regression showed that only SLD ≥5 cm in II area (OR = 4.11, p = 0.030) and rare neck areas involvement (OR = 3.95, p = 0.045) were associated with PLNM in NPC patients. PLNM was an uncommon event in NPC patients. SLD ≥5 cm in level II and involvement in rare-neck areas may be potentially high-risk factors for PLNM. Sparing parotid in IMRT was not recommended for NPC patients with high risks of PLNM

High Center Volume Does Not Mitigate Risk Associated with Using High Donor Risk Organs in Liver Transplantation.

Science.gov (United States)

Beal, Eliza W; Black, Sylvester M; Mumtaz, Khalid; Hayes, Don; El-Hinnawi, Ashraf; Washburn, Kenneth; Tumin, Dmitry

2017-09-01

High-risk donor allografts increase access to liver transplant, but potentially reduce patient and graft survival. It is unclear whether the risk associated with using marginal donor livers is mitigated by increasing center experience. The United Network for Organ Sharing registry was queried for adult first-time liver transplant recipients between 2/2002 and 12/2015. High donor risk was defined as donor risk index >1.9, and 1-year patient and graft survival were compared according to donor risk index in small and large centers. Multivariable Cox regression estimated the hazard ratio (HR) associated with using high-risk donor organs, according to a continuous measure of annual center volume. The analysis included 51,770 patients. In 67 small and 67 large centers, high donor risk index predicted increased mortality (p = 0.001). In multivariable analysis, high-donor risk index allografts predicted greater mortality hazard at centers performing 20 liver transplants per year (HR 1.35; 95% CI 1.22, 1.49; p donor risk index and center volume was not statistically significant (p = 0.747), confirming that the risk associated with using marginal donor livers was comparable between smaller and larger centers. Results were consistent when examining graft loss. At both small and large centers, high-risk donor allografts were associated with reduced patient and graft survival after liver transplant. Specific strategies to mitigate the risk of liver transplant involving high-risk donors are needed, in addition to accumulation of center expertise.

Rivers and flooded areas identified by medium-resolution remote sensing improve risk prediction of the highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 in Thailand

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Weerapong Thanapongtharm

2013-11-01

Full Text Available Thailand experienced several epidemic waves of the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI H5N1 between 2004 and 2005. This study investigated the role of water in the landscape, which has not been previously assessed because of a lack of high-resolution information on the distribution of flooded land at the time of the epidemic. Nine Landsat 7- Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus scenes covering 174,610 km2 were processed using k-means unsupervised classification to map the distribution of flooded areas as well as permanent lakes and reservoirs at the time of the main epidemic HPAI H5N1 wave of October 2004. These variables, together with other factors previously identified as significantly associated with risk, were entered into an autologistic regression model in order to quantify the gain in risk explanation over previously published models. We found that, in addition to other factors previously identified as associated with risk, the proportion of land covered by flooding along with expansion of rivers and streams, derived from an existing, sub-district level (administrative level no. 3 geographical information system database, was a highly significant risk factor in this 2004 HPAI epidemic. These results suggest that water-borne transmission could have partly contributed to the spread of HPAI H5N1 during the epidemic. Future work stemming from these results should involve studies where the actual distribution of small canals, rivers, ponds, rice paddy fields and farms are mapped and tested against farm-level data with respect to HPAI H5N1.

High resolution estimates of the corrosion risk for cultural heritage in Italy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

De Marco, Alessandra; Screpanti, Augusto; Mircea, Mihaela; Piersanti, Antonio; Proietti, Chiara; Fornasier, M. Francesca

2017-01-01

Air pollution plays a pivotal role in the deterioration of many materials used in buildings and cultural monuments causing an inestimable damage. This study aims to estimate the impacts of air pollution (SO 2 , HNO 3 , O 3 , PM 10 ) and meteorological conditions (temperature, precipitation, relative humidity) on limestone, copper and bronze based on high resolution air quality data-base produced with AMS-MINNI modelling system over the Italian territory over the time period 2003–2010. A comparison between high resolution data (AMS-MINNI grid, 4 × 4 km) and low resolution data (EMEP grid, 50 × 50 km) has been performed. Our results pointed out that the corrosion levels for limestone, copper and bronze are decreased in Italy from 2003 to 2010 in relation to decrease of pollutant concentrations. However, some problem related to air pollution persists especially in Northern and Southern Italy. In particular, PM 10 and HNO 3 are considered the main responsible for limestone corrosion. Moreover, the high resolution data (AMS-MINNI) allowed the identification of risk areas that are not visible with the low resolution data (EMEP modelling system) in all considered years and, especially, in the limestone case. Consequently, high resolution air quality simulations are suitable to provide concrete benefits in providing information for national effective policy against corrosion risk for cultural heritage, also in the context of climate changes that are affecting strongly Mediterranean basin. - Highlights: • Air pollution plays a pivotal role in the deterioration of cultural materials. • Limestone, copper and bronze corrosion levels decreased in Italy from 2003 to 2010. • PM 10 is considered the main responsible for limestone corrosion in Northern Italy. • HNO3 is considered the main responsible for limestone corrosion in all analyzed years. • High-resolution data are particularly useful to define area at risk for corrosion. - Importance of the high

Bioavailability and risk assessment of potentially toxic elements in garden edible vegetables and soils around a highly contaminated former mining area in Germany.

Science.gov (United States)

Antoniadis, Vasileios; Shaheen, Sabry M; Boersch, Judith; Frohne, Tina; Du Laing, Gijs; Rinklebe, Jörg

2017-01-15

Although soil contamination by potentially toxic elements (PTEs) in Europe has a history of many centuries, related problems are often considered as having been dealt with due to the enforcement of tight legislations. However, there are many unsolved issues. We aimed to assess PTE levels in highly contaminated soils and in garden edible vegetables using human health risk indices in order to evaluate the availability and mobilization of arsenic (As), copper (Cu), manganese (Mn), mercury (Hg), lead (Pb), and zinc (Zn). In four gardens in Germany, situated on, or in the vicinity of, a mine dump area, we planted beans (Phaseolus vulgaris ssp. nanus), carrots (Daucus sativus) and lettuce (Lactuca sativa ssp. capitata). We examined soil-to-plant mobilization of elements using transfer coefficient (TC), as well as soil contamination using contamination factor (CF), enrichment factor (EF), and bioaccumulation index (I geo ). In addition, we tested two human health risk assessment indices: Soil-induced hazard quotient (HQ S ) (representing the "direct soil ingestion" pathway), and vegetable-induced hazard quotient (HQ V ) (representing the "vegetable intake" pathway). The studied elements were highly elevated in the soils. The values in garden 2 were especially high (e.g., Pb: 13789.0 and Hg: 36.8 mg kg -1 ) and largely exceeded the reported regulation limits of 50 (for As), 40 (Cu), 400 (Pb), 150 (Zn), and 5 (Hg) mg kg -1 . Similarly, element concentrations were very high in the grown vegetables. The indices of CF, EF and I geo were enhanced even to levels that are rarely reported in the literature. Specifically, garden 2 indicated severe contamination due to multi-element deposition. The contribution of each PTE to the total of measured HQ S revealed that Pb was the single most important element causing health risk (contributing up to 77% to total HQ S ). Lead also posed the highest risk concerning vegetable consumption, contributing up to 77% to total HQ V . The

Peculiarities of territorial governing in the area of increased risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marchinskas, A.

1998-01-01

The area of Ignalina NPP can be evaluated from the standpoint of governing as the area of increased risk territory (zone), so the local administration should acquire a specific status. The results of expert examination show insufficient efficiency of the administration's activity, it's orientation to quantitative results. An objective fund is necessary for the supporting the local administration and population of this area. (author)

Risk analysis related to dangerous materials transport and storage in urban areas

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lombard, J.; Hubert, P.; Pages, P.

1989-12-01

Risk management in an urban areas not always an easy task and the selection of appropriate prevention measure is often difficult. Consequences of an accident can be multiple (mortality, destruction, pollution, interruption of supplies, economic losses, traffic difficulties), and preventive measures are difficult to compare. The objective of this report is to present different methods applicable for decision making emphasising the criteria for their intercomparison and their limitations. In any case a more sophisticated analysis is needed for risk management in urban areas. Principals of methods needed for decision making are presented. These methods are based on a single criteria (regular constraint), on a few criteria that can be measured (cost-benefit), or a number of criteria at choice. These rather general methods should be adaptable to be applied for specific domain. For risk management the following adaptation are presented: identifying the limit of maximum individual risk (generalisation of regular constraint); adoption of different values of human life as a function of nature of consequences (generalisation of cost-benefit method), application of risk avoidance factors. These different developments predict versions of tools for decision making which can be applicable to risk management in urban areas [fr

Quality assurance system for sitting high risk facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rodriguez, Aymee; Peralta, Jose L.; Fernandez, Manuel

1999-01-01

The paper shows how we have conceived and designed the quality assurance system for the site selection process of an area for sitting the facility of high risk in correspondence with the approved methodology. The results obtained in the implementation of the system have permitted the satisfactory performance of each one the expected stage, defining the most favorable sectors in order to continue the studies of the repository site for the disposal of low and intermedium. (author)

Survey of motivation for use of voluntary counseling and testing services for HIV in a high risk area of Shenyang, China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tian Jing

2009-02-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background HIV voluntary counseling and testing (VCT is considered an effective prevention method of HIV infection. In order to understand the VCT environment and enhance the effective delivery of VCT services in a country, an accurate assessment of the current status of VCT services is very important. Methods From July 2006 to June 2007, we conducted a cross-sectional survey using a face to face interview among 2676 VCT clients from a high risk area in Shenyang city, China. Results The major demographic characteristics among 2,676 VCT clients were: 41.1% were in the age range 20 to 30 years; 73.1% were males; and 67.1% had attained the level of junior high school education. The primary information source for VCT services was mass media like television (TV and newspaper in 88.9%. 34.3% were afraid of the result of infection which was the main barrier to accept VCT services among 540 participants answering the question. 75.2% were motivated by recently acquired knowledge about HIV. 47.9% had 3 or more male sex partners, 62.3% had used condoms sometimes, and 14.5% had been infected with a STD. 2.8% of the participants identified themselves as men who have sex with men (MSM. The main demographic characteristics of MSM did not differ from the total group of participants except with respect to age: 63.5% reported having one male sex partner in the preceding 12 months, 44.6% reported never using condoms in the preceding 12 months, and only 2.7% reported a history of sexually transmitted disease. Conclusion Public education offered by health workers in hospitals, private clinics and other medical institutions needs to be strengthened. Given the results from this study, we recommend: (1 making VCT a routine part of health services, especially in areas where many high-risk individuals live; (2 improving the information sources and increasing the understanding of HIV and HIV-infected individuals; (3 enhancing international collaboration in

A Study on the Estimation Method of Risk Based Area for Jetty Safety Monitoring

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Byeong-Wook Nam

2015-09-01

Full Text Available Recently, the importance of safety-monitoring systems was highlighted by the unprecedented collision between a ship and a jetty in Yeosu. Accordingly, in this study, we introduce the concept of risk based area and develop a methodology for a jetty safety-monitoring system. By calculating the risk based areas for a ship and a jetty, the risk of collision was evaluated. To calculate the risk based areas, we employed an automatic identification system for the ship, stopping-distance equations, and the regulation velocity near the jetty. In this paper, we suggest a risk calculation method for jetty safety monitoring that can determine the collision probability in real time and predict collisions using the amount of overlap between the two calculated risk based areas. A test was conducted at a jetty control center at GS Caltex, and the effectiveness of the proposed risk calculation method was verified. The method is currently applied to the jetty-monitoring system at GS Caltex in Yeosu for the prevention of collisions.

Estimating micro area behavioural risk factor prevalence from large population-based surveys: a full Bayesian approach

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L. Seliske

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background An important public health goal is to decrease the prevalence of key behavioural risk factors, such as tobacco use and obesity. Survey information is often available at the regional level, but heterogeneity within large geographic regions cannot be assessed. Advanced spatial analysis techniques are demonstrated to produce sensible micro area estimates of behavioural risk factors that enable identification of areas with high prevalence. Methods A spatial Bayesian hierarchical model was used to estimate the micro area prevalence of current smoking and excess bodyweight for the Erie-St. Clair region in southwestern Ontario. Estimates were mapped for male and female respondents of five cycles of the Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS. The micro areas were 2006 Census Dissemination Areas, with an average population of 400–700 people. Two individual-level models were specified: one controlled for survey cycle and age group (model 1, and one controlled for survey cycle, age group and micro area median household income (model 2. Post-stratification was used to derive micro area behavioural risk factor estimates weighted to the population structure. SaTScan analyses were conducted on the granular, postal-code level CCHS data to corroborate findings of elevated prevalence. Results Current smoking was elevated in two urban areas for both sexes (Sarnia and Windsor, and an additional small community (Chatham for males only. Areas of excess bodyweight were prevalent in an urban core (Windsor among males, but not females. Precision of the posterior post-stratified current smoking estimates was improved in model 2, as indicated by narrower credible intervals and a lower coefficient of variation. For excess bodyweight, both models had similar precision. Aggregation of the micro area estimates to CCHS design-based estimates validated the findings. Conclusions This is among the first studies to apply a full Bayesian model to complex

Development of a predictive methodology for identifying high radon exhalation potential areas

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ielsch, G.

2001-01-01

Radon 222 is a radioactive natural gas originating from the decay of radium 226 which itself originates from the decay of uranium 23 8 naturally present in rocks and soil. Inhalation of radon gas and its decay products is a potential health risk for man. Radon can accumulate in confined environments such as buildings, and is responsible for one third of the total radiological exposure of the general public to radiation. The problem of how to manage this risk then arises. The main difficulty encountered is due to the large variability of exposure to radon across the country. A prediction needs to be made of areas with the highest density of buildings with high radon levels. Exposure to radon varies depending on the degree of confinement of the habitat, the lifestyle of the occupants and particularly emission of radon from the surface of the soil on which the building is built. The purpose of this thesis is to elaborate a methodology for determining areas presenting a high potential for radon exhalation at the surface of the soil. The methodology adopted is based on quantification of radon exhalation at the surface, starting from a precise characterization of the main local geological and pedological parameters that control the radon source and its transport to the ground/atmosphere interface. The methodology proposed is innovative in that it combines a cartographic analysis, parameters integrated into a Geographic Information system, and a simplified model for vertical transport of radon by diffusion through pores in the soil. This methodology has been validated on two typical areas, in different geological contexts, and gives forecasts that generally agree with field observations. This makes it possible to identify areas with a high exhalation potential within a range of a few square kilometers. (author)

A metasynthesis of risk perception in women with high risk pregnancies.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Suzanne; Ayers, Susan; Holden, Des

2014-04-01

risk perception in women with high risk pregnancies affects their decisions about perinatal care and is of interest to anyone involved in the care of pregnant women. This paper provides a metasynthesis of qualitative studies of risk perception in women with high risk pregnancies. a systematic search of eight electronic databases was conducted. Additional papers were obtained through searching references of identified articles. Six studies were identified that reported qualitative research into risk perception in relation to high risk pregnancy. A metasynthesis was developed to describe and interpret the studies. the synthesis resulted in the identification of five themes: determinants of risk perception; not seeing it the way others do; normality versus risk; if the infant is ok, I׳m ok; managing risk. this metasynthesis suggests women at high risk during pregnancy use multiple sources of information to determine their risk status. It shows women are aware of the risks posed by their pregnancies but do not perceive risk in the same way as healthcare professionals. They will take steps to ensure the health of themselves and their infants but these may not include following all medical recommendations. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

World high background natural radiation areas: Need to protect public from radiation exposure

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sohrabi, Mehdi

2013-01-01

Highlights of findings on radiological measurements, radiobiological and epidemiological studies in some main world high background natural radiation (HBNR) areas such as in Brazil, China, India and Iran are presented and discussed with special regard to remediation of radiation exposure of inhabitants in such areas. The current radiation protection philosophy and recommendations applied to workers and public from operation of radiation and nuclear applications are based on the linear non-threshold (LNT) model. The inhabitants of HBNR and radon prone areas receive relatively high radiation doses. Therefore, according to the LNT concept, the inhabitants in HBNR areas and in particular those in Ramsar are considered at risk and their exposure should be regulated. The HBNR areas in the world have different conditions in terms of dose and population. In particular, the inhabitants in HBNR areas of Ramsar receive very high internal and external exposures. This author believes that the public in such areas should be protected and proposes a plan to remedy high exposure of the inhabitants of the HBNR areas of Ramsar, while maintaining these areas as they stand to establish a national environmental radioactivity park which can be provisionally called “Ramsar Research Natural Radioactivity Park” (RRNRP). The major HBNR areas, the public exposure and the need to remedy exposures of inhabitants are reviewed and discussed. - Highlights: ► Highlights of findings on studies in HBNR areas are reviewed and discussed. ► The need to protect HBNR area inhabitants and remedy public exposure is emphasized. ► A collective approach is proposed to remedy exposure of Ramsar HBNR area inhabitants. ► Relocation of HBNR area inhabitants and establishing a park at the location is proposed. ► The advantages and disadvantages of the methods are discussed and recommendations are made

Identification and delineation of areas flood hazard using high accuracy of DEM data

Science.gov (United States)

Riadi, B.; Barus, B.; Widiatmaka; Yanuar, M. J. P.; Pramudya, B.

2018-05-01

Flood incidents that often occur in Karawang regency need to be mitigated. These expectations exist on technologies that can predict, anticipate and reduce disaster risks. Flood modeling techniques using Digital Elevation Model (DEM) data can be applied in mitigation activities. High accuracy DEM data used in modeling, will result in better flooding flood models. The result of high accuracy DEM data processing will yield information about surface morphology which can be used to identify indication of flood hazard area. The purpose of this study was to identify and describe flood hazard areas by identifying wetland areas using DEM data and Landsat-8 images. TerraSAR-X high-resolution data is used to detect wetlands from landscapes, while land cover is identified by Landsat image data. The Topography Wetness Index (TWI) method is used to detect and identify wetland areas with basic DEM data, while for land cover analysis using Tasseled Cap Transformation (TCT) method. The result of TWI modeling yields information about potential land of flood. Overlay TWI map with land cover map that produces information that in Karawang regency the most vulnerable areas occur flooding in rice fields. The spatial accuracy of the flood hazard area in this study was 87%.

[Detecting high risk pregnancy].

Science.gov (United States)

Doret, Muriel; Gaucherand, Pascal

2009-12-20

Antenatal care is aiming to reduce maternal land foetal mortality and morbidity. Maternal and foetal mortality can be due to different causes. Their knowledge allows identifying pregnancy (high risk pregnancy) with factors associated with an increased risk for maternal and/or foetal mortality and serious morbidity. Identification of high risk pregnancies and initiation of appropriate treatment and/or surveillance should improve maternal and/or foetal outcome. New risk factors are continuously described thanks to improvement in antenatal care and development in biology and cytopathology, increasing complexity in identifying high risk pregnancies. Level of risk can change all over the pregnancy. Ideally, it should be evaluated prior to the pregnancy and at each antenatal visit. Clinical examination is able to screen for intra-uterin growth restriction, pre-eclampsia, threatened for preterm labour; ultrasounds help in the diagnosis of foetal morphological anomalies, foetal chromosomal anomalies, placenta praevia and abnormal foetal growth; biological exams are used to screen for pre-eclampsia, gestational diabetes, trisomy 21 (for which screening method just changed), rhesus immunisation, seroconversion for toxoplasmosis or rubeola, unknown infectious disease (syphilis, hepatitis B, VIH). During pregnancy, most of the preventive strategies have to be initiated during the first trimester or even before conception. Prevention for neural-tube defects, neonatal hypocalcemia and listeriosis should be performed for all women. On the opposite, some measures are concerning only women with risk factors such as prevention for toxoplasmosis, rhesus immunization (which recently changed), tobacco complications and pre-eclampsia and intra-uterine growth factor restriction.

A Wide Area Risk Assessment Framework for Underwater Military Munitions Response

Science.gov (United States)

Holland, K. T.; Calantoni, J.

2017-12-01

Our objective was to develop a prototype statistical framework supporting Wide Area Assessment and Remedial Investigation decisions relating to the risk of unexploded ordnance and other military munitions concentrated in underwater environments. Decision making involving underwater munitions is inherently complex due to the high degree of uncertainty in the environmental conditions that force munitions responses (burial, decay, migration, etc.) and associated risks to the public. The prototype framework provides a consistent approach to accurately delineating contaminated areas at underwater munitions sites through the estimation of most probable concentrations. We adapted existing deterministic models and environmental data services for use within statistical modules that allowed the estimation of munition concentration given historic site information and environmental attributes. Ultimately this risk surface can be used to evaluate costs associated with various remediation approaches (e.g. removal, monitoring, etc.). Unfortunately, evaluation of the assessment framework was limited due to the lack of enduser data services from munition site managers. Of the 450 U.S. sites identified as having potential contamination with underwater munitions, assessment of available munitions information (including historic firing or disposal records, and recent ground-truth munitions samples) indicated very limited information in the databases. Example data types include the most probable munition types, approximate firing / disposal dates and locations, and any supportive munition survey or sampling results. However the overall technical goal to integrate trained statistical belief networks with detailed geophysical knowledge of sites, of sensors and of the underwater environment was demonstrated and should allow probabilistic estimates of the most likely outcomes and tradeoffs while managing uncertainty associated with military munitions response.

HIGH RISK ZONES ON FLOODS AND LANDSLIDES DISASTERS IN RWANDA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nsengiyumva J.ean Baptiste

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Disaster risk management as an issue at stake worldwide shifts its emphases from post disaster to pre-disaster phases. Management activities required in pre-disaster phases, such as risk assessment, hazard identification, preparedness or preventive and mitigation measures needs detailed information about hazard characteristics, social, economic, structural vulnerability and capacity. That information is not usually available in many different countries, as it is the case in Rwanda. Based on the international experiences and practices, knowledge of disaster prone areas can be assumed as an alternative for detailed information acquisition, thus contributing to effective disaster risk management. Identification of disaster higher risk zones on floods and landslides, can lead to better understanding of disaster risk and putting in place measures for risk reduction. Consequently, as Rwanda is prone to natural hazards with lack of adequate information that is essential for effective disaster risk management, due to limited scientific researches; this study aims to address that gap. The results revealed that some areas of the North-Western parts of Rwanda are highly prone to floods and landslides, namely Burera, Musanze, Rulindo, Nyabihu, Ngororero and Rubavu Districts. This is aggravated by some triggering factors such as steep slopes, soil types, heavy rains, landuse Practices and others. Intensity and frequency of disaster events vary from district to district and this geographical dispersal confirms the non-spatial clustering (as confirmed by Moran’s I analysis of risks due to uneven level of Disaster vulnerabilities, coping capacities and available hazards whereby lack of normal distribution of hazards all over all Districts.

Earthquake Hazard for Aswan High Dam Area

Science.gov (United States)

Ismail, Awad

2016-04-01

Earthquake activity and seismic hazard analysis are important components of the seismic aspects for very essential structures such as major dams. The Aswan High Dam (AHD) created the second man-made reservoir in the world (Lake Nasser) and is constructed near urban areas pose a high-risk potential for downstream life and property. The Dam area is one of the seismically active regions in Egypt and is occupied with several cross faults, which are dominant in the east-west and north-south. Epicenters were found to cluster around active faults in the northern part of Lake and AHD location. The space-time distribution and the relation of the seismicity with the lake water level fluctuations were studied. The Aswan seismicity separates into shallow and deep seismic zones, between 0 and 14 and 14 and 30 km, respectively. These two seismic zones behave differently over time, as indicated by the seismicity rate, lateral extent, b-value, and spatial clustering. It is characterized by earthquake swarm sequences showing activation of the clustering-events over time and space. The effect of the North African drought (1982 to present) is clearly seen in the reservoir water level. As it decreased and left the most active fault segments uncovered, the shallow activity was found to be more sensitive to rapid discharging than to the filling. This study indicates that geology, topography, lineations in seismicity, offsets in the faults, changes in fault trends and focal mechanisms are closely related. No relation was found between earthquake activity and both-ground water table fluctuations and water temperatures measured in wells located around the Kalabsha area. The peak ground acceleration is estimated in the dam site based on strong ground motion simulation. This seismic hazard analyses have indicated that AHD is stable with the present seismicity. The earthquake epicenters have recently took place approximately 5 km west of the AHD structure. This suggests that AHD dam must be

Altered intraoperative cerebrovascular reactivity in brain areas of high-grade glioma recurrence.

Science.gov (United States)

Fierstra, Jorn; van Niftrik, Bas; Piccirelli, Marco; Burkhardt, Jan Karl; Pangalu, Athina; Kocian, Roman; Valavanis, Antonios; Weller, Michael; Regli, Luca; Bozinov, Oliver

2016-07-01

Current MRI sequences are limited in identifying brain areas at risk for high grade glioma recurrence. We employed intraoperative 3-Tesla functional MRI to assess cerebrovascular reactivity (CVR) after high-grade glioma resection and analyzed regional CVR responses in areas of tumor recurrence on clinical follow-up imaging. Five subjects with high-grade glioma that underwent an intraoperative Blood Oxygen-Level Dependent (BOLD) MRI CVR examination and had a clinical follow-up of at least 18months were selected from a prospective database. For this study, location of tumor recurrence was spatially matched to the intraoperative imaging to assess CVR response in that particular area. CVR is defined as the percent BOLD signal change during repeated cycles of apnea. Of the 5 subjects (mean age 44, 2 females), 4 were diagnosed with a WHO grade III and 1 subject with a WHO grade IV glioma. Three subjects exhibited a tumor recurrence on clinical follow-up MRI (mean: 15months). BOLD CVR measured in the spatially matched area of tumor recurrence was on average 94% increased (range-32% to 183%) as compared to contralateral hemisphere CVR response, 1.50±0.81 versus 1.03±0.46 respectively (p=0.31). For this first analysis in a small cohort, we found altered intraoperative CVR in brain areas exhibiting high grade glioma recurrence on clinical follow-up imaging. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk factors for breast cancer in a population with high incidence rates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wrensch, Margaret; Peskin-Mentzer, Roni; Quesenberry, Charles P Jr; Souders-Mason, Virginia; Spence, Linda; Suzuki, Marisa; Gould, Mary; Chew, Terri; Farren, Georgianna; Barlow, Janice; Belli, Flavia; Clarke, Christina; Erdmann, Christine A; Lee, Marion; Moghadassi, Michelle

2003-01-01

This report examines generally recognized breast cancer risk factors and years of residence in Marin County, California, an area with high breast cancer incidence and mortality rates. Eligible women who were residents of Marin County diagnosed with breast cancer in 1997–99 and women without breast cancer obtained through random digit dialing, frequency-matched by cases' age at diagnosis and ethnicity, participated in either full in-person or abbreviated telephone interviews. In multivariate analyses, 285 cases were statistically significantly more likely than 286 controls to report being premenopausal, never to have used birth control pills, a lower highest lifetime body mass index, four or more mammograms in 1990–94, beginning drinking after the age of 21, on average drinking two or more drinks per day, the highest quartile of pack-years of cigarette smoking and having been raised in an organized religion. Cases and controls did not significantly differ with regard to having a first-degree relative with breast cancer, a history of benign breast biopsy, previous radiation treatment, age at menarche, parity, use of hormone replacement therapy, age of first living in Marin County, or total years lived in Marin County. Results for several factors differed for women aged under 50 years or 50 years and over. Despite similar distributions of several known breast cancer risk factors, case-control differences in alcohol consumption suggest that risk in this high-risk population might be modifiable. Intensive study of this or other areas of similarly high incidence might reveal other important risk factors proximate to diagnosis

Risk Mapping Case Study: Industrial Area Of Trinec Town (Czech Republic) potentially endangered by floods and landslides

Science.gov (United States)

Dobes, P.; Hrdina, P.; Kotatko, A.; Danihelka, P.; Bednarik, M.; Krejci, O.; Kasperakova, D.

2009-04-01

One of present questions in the context of natural and technological risk mapping, which become important in last years, is analysis and assessment of selected types of multirisks. It results from relevant R&D projetcs and also from international workshops and conferences. From various surveys and presented activities it is evident existence a lot of data and methodological approaches for single risk categories but a lack of tested methodological approaches for multirisks. Within framework of workgroup was done literature search of multirisk assessment methodologies and innovations. The idea of this relatively small, local scale case study arose during the 3rd Risk Mapping Workshop, coordinated by EC DG JRC, IPSC in November 2007. The proposal was based on the previous risk analysis and assessment project, which has been done for Frydek-Mistek County area (Czech Republic) in the year 2002. Several industrial facilities in the Trinec are partly situated in the inundation area of river Olše and are partly protected by concrete barriers built on the banks of Olše. It has to be mentioned that these banks are unstable and in the permanent slow movement. If iron-concrete barriers will be overflowed by water as the result of sudden bank landslide or flood wave, it could trigger several industrial accidents on steel and energy production facilities. Area is highly developed from demographic and socioeconomic point of view. Selected area is in high stage of geological, engineering geological and hydrogeological investigation. Most important scenarios of acidents in the area were developed by What-If analysis and Black box analysis (just growth of several different scenarios; qualitative analysis). In the period of few years later, more QRA analyses of industrial risks were proceeded separately, thanks to District Office, public and Seveso II Directive requirements. General scenarios of multi-hazard events was considered. In the case study, three methodologies was applied

Risk perception in women with high-risk pregnancies

OpenAIRE

Lee, S.

2014-01-01

Risk perception in women with high risk pregnancies affects the decisions they make about antenatal care and so may therefore influence the wellbeing of mother and baby. This article addresses the factors which influence women when making risk assessments and how these assessments may differ from those of healthcare professionals.\\ud \\ud Women use multiple sources of information to determine their risk status including advice from professionals, from other trusted sources, and their own intui...

The patient perspective: utilizing focus groups to inform care coordination for high-risk medicaid populations.

Science.gov (United States)

Sheff, Alex; Park, Elyse R; Neagle, Mary; Oreskovic, Nicolas M

2017-07-25

Care coordination programs for high-risk, high-cost patients are a critical component of population health management. These programs aim to improve outcomes and reduce costs and have proliferated over the last decade. Some programs, originally designed for Medicare patients, are now transitioning to also serve Medicaid populations. However, there are still gaps in the understanding of what barriers to care Medicaid patients experience, and what supports will be most effective for providing them care coordination. We conducted two focus groups (n = 13) and thematic analyses to assess the outcomes drivers and programmatic preferences of Medicaid patients enrolled in a high-risk care coordination program at a major academic medical center in Boston, MA. Two focus groups identified areas where care coordination efforts were having a positive impact, as well as areas of unmet needs among the Medicaid population. Six themes emerged from the focus groups that clustered in three groupings: In the first group (1) enrollment in an existing medical care coordination programs, and (2) provider communication largely presented as positive accounts of assistance, and good relationships with providers, though participants also pointed to areas where these efforts fell short. In the second group (3) trauma histories, (4) mental health challenges, and (5) executive function difficulties all presented challenges faced by high-risk Medicaid patients that would likely require redress through additional programmatic supports. Finally, in the third group, (6) peer-to-peer support tendencies among patients suggested an untapped resource for care coordination programs. Programs aimed at high-risk Medicaid patients will want to consider programmatic adjustments to attend to patient needs in five areas: (1) provider connection/care coordination, (2) trauma, (3) mental health, (4) executive function/paperwork and coaching support, and (5) peer-to-peer support.

Analysis of risk factors for persistent infection of asymptomatic women with high-risk human papilloma virus.

Science.gov (United States)

Shi, Nianmin; Lu, Qiang; Zhang, Jiao; Li, Li; Zhang, Junnan; Zhang, Fanglei; Dong, Yanhong; Zhang, Xinyue; Zhang, Zheng; Gao, Wenhui

2017-06-03

This study aims to prevent persistentinfection, reduce the incidence of cervical cancer, and improve women's health by understanding the theoretical basis of the risk factors for continuous infection of asymptomatic women with high-risk human papilloma virus (HPV) strains via information collected, which includes the persistent infection rate and the most prevalent HPV strain types of high risk to asymptomatic women in the high-risk area of cervical cancer in Linfen, Shanxi Province. Based on the method of cluster sampling, locations were chosen from the industrial county and agricultural county of Linfen, Shanxi Province, namely the Xiangfen and Quwo counties. Use of the convenience sampling (CS) method enables the identification of women who have sex but without symptoms of abnormal cervix for analyzing risk factors of HPV-DNA detection and performing a retrospective questionnaire survey in these 2 counties. Firstly, cervical exfoliated cell samples were collected for thin-layer liquid-based cytology test (TCT), and simultaneously testing high-risk type HPV DNA, then samples with positive testing results were retested to identify the infected HPV types. The 6-month period of testing was done to derive the 6-month persistent infection rate. The retrospective survey included concepts addressed in the questionnaire: basic situation of the research objects, menstrual history, marital status, pregnancy history, sexual habits and other aspects. The questionnaire was divided into a case group and a comparison group, which are based on the high-risk HPV-DNA testing result to ascertain whether or not there is persistent infection. Statistical analysis employed Epidate3.1 software for date entry, SPSS17.0 for date statistical analysis. Select statistic charts, Chi-Square Analysis, single-factor analysis and multivariate Logistic regression analysis to analyze the protective factors and risk factors of high-risk HPV infection. Risk factors are predicted by using the

Methodology for the Model-based Small Area Estimates of Cancer Risk Factors and Screening Behaviors - Small Area Estimates

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This model-based approach uses data from both the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) and the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) to produce estimates of the prevalence rates of cancer risk factors and screening behaviors at the state, health service area, and county levels.

Informal e-waste recycling: environmental risk assessment of heavy metal contamination in Mandoli industrial area, Delhi, India.

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Pradhan, Jatindra Kumar; Kumar, Sudhir

2014-01-01

Nowadays, e-waste is a major source of environmental problems and opportunities due to presence of hazardous elements and precious metals. This study was aimed to evaluate the pollution risk of heavy metal contamination by informal recycling of e-waste. Environmental risk assessment was determined using multivariate statistical analysis, index of geoaccumulation, enrichment factor, contamination factor, degree of contamination and pollution load index by analysing heavy metals in surface soils, plants and groundwater samples collected from and around informal recycling workshops in Mandoli industrial area, Delhi, India. Concentrations of heavy metals like As (17.08 mg/kg), Cd (1.29 mg/kg), Cu (115.50 mg/kg), Pb (2,645.31 mg/kg), Se (12.67 mg/kg) and Zn (776.84 mg/kg) were higher in surface soils of e-waste recycling areas compared to those in reference site. Level exceeded the values suggested by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). High accumulations of heavy metals were also observed in the native plant samples (Cynodon dactylon) of e-waste recycling areas. The groundwater samples collected form recycling area had high heavy metal concentrations as compared to permissible limit of Indian Standards and maximum allowable limit of WHO guidelines for drinking water. Multivariate analysis and risk assessment studies based on total metal content explains the clear-cut differences among sampling sites and a strong evidence of heavy metal pollution because of informal recycling of e-waste. This study put forward that prolonged informal recycling of e-waste may accumulate high concentration of heavy metals in surface soils, plants and groundwater, which will be a matter of concern for both environmental and occupational hazards. This warrants an immediate need of remedial measures to reduce the heavy metal contamination of e-waste recycling sites.

Human health risk assessment of mercury vapor around artisanal small-scale gold mining area, Palu city, Central Sulawesi, Indonesia.

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Nakazawa, Koyomi; Nagafuchi, Osamu; Kawakami, Tomonori; Inoue, Takanobu; Yokota, Kuriko; Serikawa, Yuka; Cyio, Basir; Elvince, Rosana

2016-02-01

Emissions of elemental mercury, Hg(0), from artisanal small-scale gold mining activities accounted for 37% of total global Hg(0) emissions in 2010. People who live near gold-mining areas may be exposed to high concentrations of Hg(0). Here, we assessed the human health risk due to Hg(0) exposure among residents of Palu city (Central Sulawesi Province, Indonesia). The area around the city has more than 60t of gold reserves, and the nearby Poboya area is the most active gold-mining site in Indonesia. Owing to its geography, the city experiences alternating land and sea breezes. Sampling was done over a period of 3 years (from 2010 Aug. to 2012 Dec.) intermittently with a passive sampler for Hg(0), a portable handheld mercury analyzer, and a mercury analyzer in four areas of the city and in the Poboya gold-processing area, as well as wind speeds and directions in one area of the city. The 24-h average concentration, wind speed, and wind direction data show that the ambient air in both the gold-processing area and the city was always covered by high concentration of mercury vapor. The Hg(0) concentration in the city was higher at night than in the daytime, owing to the effect of land breezes. These results indicate that the inhabitants of the city were always exposed to high concentrations of Hg(0). The average daytime point-sample Hg(0) concentrations in the city, as measured with a handheld mercury analyzer over 3 days in July 2011, ranged from 2096 to 3299ngm(-3). In comparison, the average daytime Hg(0) concentration in the Poboya gold-processing area was 12,782ngm(-3). All of these concentrations are substantially higher than the World Health Organization air-quality guideline for annual average Hg exposure (1000ngm(-3)). We used the point-sample concentrations to calculate hazard quotient ratios by means of a probabilistic risk assessment method. The results indicated that 93% of the sample population overall was at risk (hazard quotient ratio ≥1 and cut off at

Area-level risk factors for adverse birth outcomes: trends in urban and rural settings.

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Kent, Shia T; McClure, Leslie A; Zaitchik, Ben F; Gohlke, Julia M

2013-06-10

Significant and persistent racial and income disparities in birth outcomes exist in the US. The analyses in this manuscript examine whether adverse birth outcome time trends and associations between area-level variables and adverse birth outcomes differ by urban-rural status. Alabama births records were merged with ZIP code-level census measures of race, poverty, and rurality. B-splines were used to determine long-term preterm birth (PTB) and low birth weight (LBW) trends by rurality. Logistic regression models were used to examine differences in the relationships between ZIP code-level percent poverty or percent African-American with either PTB or LBW. Interactions with rurality were examined. Population dense areas had higher adverse birth outcome rates compared to other regions. For LBW, the disparity between population dense and other regions increased during the 1991-2005 time period, and the magnitude of the disparity was maintained through 2010. Overall PTB and LBW rates have decreased since 2006, except within isolated rural regions. The addition of individual-level socioeconomic or race risk factors greatly attenuated these geographical disparities, but isolated rural regions maintained increased odds of adverse birth outcomes. ZIP code-level percent poverty and percent African American both had significant relationships with adverse birth outcomes. Poverty associations remained significant in the most population-dense regions when models were adjusted for individual-level risk factors. Population dense urban areas have heightened rates of adverse birth outcomes. High-poverty African American areas have higher odds of adverse birth outcomes in urban versus rural regions. These results suggest there are urban-specific social or environmental factors increasing risk for adverse birth outcomes in underserved communities. On the other hand, trends in PTBs and LBWs suggest interventions that have decreased adverse birth outcomes elsewhere may not be reaching

Ecological risk assessment of deep geological disposal of high-level nuclear waste

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hart, D.R.; Lush, D.L.; Acton, D.W.

1993-01-01

Contaminant fate and transport models, radiological dosimetry models, chemical dose-response models and population dynamic models were used to estimate ecological risks to moose and brook trout populations arising from a proposed high-level nuclear waste repository. Risks from potential contaminant releases were compared with risks from physical habitat alteration in constructing a repository and service community, and with risks from increased hunting and fish pressure in the area. For a reference environment typical of a proposed location somewhere in the Canadian Shield, preliminary results suggest that the population consequences of contaminant release will be minor relative to those of habitat alteration and natural resource use

The loss of species: mangrove extinction risk and geographic areas of global concern.

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Polidoro, Beth A; Carpenter, Kent E; Collins, Lorna; Duke, Norman C; Ellison, Aaron M; Ellison, Joanna C; Farnsworth, Elizabeth J; Fernando, Edwino S; Kathiresan, Kandasamy; Koedam, Nico E; Livingstone, Suzanne R; Miyagi, Toyohiko; Moore, Gregg E; Ngoc Nam, Vien; Ong, Jin Eong; Primavera, Jurgenne H; Salmo, Severino G; Sanciangco, Jonnell C; Sukardjo, Sukristijono; Wang, Yamin; Yong, Jean Wan Hong

2010-04-08

Mangrove species are uniquely adapted to tropical and subtropical coasts, and although relatively low in number of species, mangrove forests provide at least US $1.6 billion each year in ecosystem services and support coastal livelihoods worldwide. Globally, mangrove areas are declining rapidly as they are cleared for coastal development and aquaculture and logged for timber and fuel production. Little is known about the effects of mangrove area loss on individual mangrove species and local or regional populations. To address this gap, species-specific information on global distribution, population status, life history traits, and major threats were compiled for each of the 70 known species of mangroves. Each species' probability of extinction was assessed under the Categories and Criteria of the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. Eleven of the 70 mangrove species (16%) are at elevated threat of extinction. Particular areas of geographical concern include the Atlantic and Pacific coasts of Central America, where as many as 40% of mangroves species present are threatened with extinction. Across the globe, mangrove species found primarily in the high intertidal and upstream estuarine zones, which often have specific freshwater requirements and patchy distributions, are the most threatened because they are often the first cleared for development of aquaculture and agriculture. The loss of mangrove species will have devastating economic and environmental consequences for coastal communities, especially in those areas with low mangrove diversity and high mangrove area or species loss. Several species at high risk of extinction may disappear well before the next decade if existing protective measures are not enforced.

The loss of species: mangrove extinction risk and geographic areas of global concern.

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Beth A Polidoro

2010-04-01

Full Text Available Mangrove species are uniquely adapted to tropical and subtropical coasts, and although relatively low in number of species, mangrove forests provide at least US $1.6 billion each year in ecosystem services and support coastal livelihoods worldwide. Globally, mangrove areas are declining rapidly as they are cleared for coastal development and aquaculture and logged for timber and fuel production. Little is known about the effects of mangrove area loss on individual mangrove species and local or regional populations. To address this gap, species-specific information on global distribution, population status, life history traits, and major threats were compiled for each of the 70 known species of mangroves. Each species' probability of extinction was assessed under the Categories and Criteria of the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. Eleven of the 70 mangrove species (16% are at elevated threat of extinction. Particular areas of geographical concern include the Atlantic and Pacific coasts of Central America, where as many as 40% of mangroves species present are threatened with extinction. Across the globe, mangrove species found primarily in the high intertidal and upstream estuarine zones, which often have specific freshwater requirements and patchy distributions, are the most threatened because they are often the first cleared for development of aquaculture and agriculture. The loss of mangrove species will have devastating economic and environmental consequences for coastal communities, especially in those areas with low mangrove diversity and high mangrove area or species loss. Several species at high risk of extinction may disappear well before the next decade if existing protective measures are not enforced.

Application of preliminary risk analysis at marble finishing plants in Recife's metropolitan area.

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de Melo Neto, Rútilo P; Kohlman Rabbani, Emilia R

2012-01-01

The finishing of marble occurs in quarries all over Brazil, being the most significant dimension of the ornamental stone sector, with 7,000 businesses. Recife's Metropolitan Area (RMR) contains approximately 106 marble quarries, 25 of them unionized. The study focused on the application of Preliminary Risk Analysis, conducted at two unionized quarries: M1, a small business; and the second, M2, considered a micro enterprise. In this analysis both the administrative and the productive sectors were evaluated. The fieldwork was done in the month of December 2010. The study revealed that the two quarries carried moderate risks in the administrative sector, mainly due to ergonomic factors, and that in the productive sectors the risks were high, specifically because of excess noise, dust material, and precarious electrical installations. Using the results of the qualitative analysis as a base, the need for quantitative study presents itself in order to determine the most adequate modes of protection to be of assistance in the management of these risks, guaranteeing the safety and health of the worker and consequently the improvement in productivity in this sector.

[Population-based study on infection and genotype distribution of high-risk human among women in rural areas of China, 2014].

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Di, J L; Luo, X M; Wu, J L; Song, B; Ma, L

2017-04-06

Objective: To explore the epidemiologic characterization of high-risk human papillomavirus (HR-HPV) infection and genotype distribution of HR-HPV among women in rural areas of China. Methods: This study used multiple layers of stratified cluster random sampling method. During January to December in 2014, 117 counties of 27 provinces were selected as the HPV test screening pilot project counties. The women aged 35-64 years with rural areas Hukou in these project counties were selected as the study subjects. A total 457 799 women received HPV DNA test. Among them, 118 237 women from 32 counties in 11 provinces received qualified HPV DNA test by fluorescent PCR to detect HPV genotypes. Results: Among 118 237 rural women, the overall HR-HPV positive infection rate was 7.8% (9 249/118 237). The infection rate increased with age and reached an infection peak at the 60-64 age groups (9.9%, 831/8 394). The HR-HPV positive infection rate in western regions (6.9%, 2 144/31 130) was statistical significantly lower than in central regions (8.2%, 1 894/23 023) and eastern regions (8.1%, 5 211/64 084) (χ(2)=51.46, PChina. The single infection rates were 20.9% (1 355/6 496), 18.7% (1 215/6 496), and 11.2% (725/6 496), respectively. The multiple infection rates were 47.2% (77/163), 17.8% (29/163), and 18.4% (30/163), respectively. Conclusion: The HR-HPV positive infection rate in rural areas of Chinese woman was 7.8%, western region has lower infection rate compared with central and eastern regions. HPV 52 was first of the most common genotypes in rural areas of China.

NCRP Program Area Committee 7: Radiation Education, Risk Communication, Outreach, and Policy.

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Becker, S M; Locke, P A

2016-02-01

Recognizing the central importance of effective communication, education, and policy across all of the domains of radiation safety and radiation protection, the National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements (NCRP) established a new committee in 2013. Program Area Committee 7 (PAC 7) was created to develop projects and provide guidance on "Radiation Education, Risk Communication, Outreach, and Policy." After identifying individuals with relevant expertise who were willing to serve, the Committee held its inaugural meeting in 2014. In 2015, the Committee increased its membership and began carrying out an expanded program of activities. One area of activity has involved providing input and feedback on risk communication issues to NCRP and other agencies. Another area of work has involved liaising with other NCRP committees (e.g., Council Committee 1 and PAC 3) to help incorporate psychosocial and risk communication issues into projects. Future efforts of NCRP's newest PAC are expected to include the development of authoritative reports and commentaries dealing with critical issues and challenges in radiation risk communication, education, and policy.

High level natural radiation areas with special regard to Ramsar

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sohrabi, M.

1993-01-01

The studies of high level natural radiation areas (HLNRAs) around the world are of great importance for determination of risks due to long-term low-level whole body exposures of public. Many areas of the world possess HLNRAs the number of which depends on the criteria defined. Detailed radiological studies have been carried out in some HLNRAs the results of which have been reported at least in three international conferences. Among the HLNRAs, Ramsar has so far the highest level of natural radiation in some areas where radiological studies have been of concern. A program was established for Ramsar and its HLNRAs to study indoor and outdoor gamma exposures and external and internal doses of the inhabitants, 226 Ra content of public water supplies and hot springs, of food stuffs, etc., 222 Rn levels measured in 473 rooms of near 350 houses, 16 schools and 89 rooms and many locations of old and new Ramsar Hotels in different seasons, cytogenetic effects on inhabitants of Talesh Mahalleh, the highest radiation area, compared to that of a control area and radiological parameters of a house with a high potential for internal and external exposures of the inhabitants. It was concluded that the epidemiological studies in a number of countries did not show any evidence of increased health detriment in HLNRAs compared to control groups. In this paper, the conclusions drawn from studies in some HLNRAs around the world in particular Ramsar are discussed. (author). 20 refs, 2 figs, 1 tab

Previous exposure in a high-risk area for travellers' diarrhoea within the past year is associated with a significant protective effect for travellers' diarrhoea: a prospective observational cohort study in travellers to South Asia.

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Kuenzli, Esther; Juergensen, David; Kling, Kerstin; Jaeger, Veronika K; DeCrom, Susan; Steffen, Robert; Widmer, Andreas F; Battegay, Manuel; Hatz, Christoph; Neumayr, Andreas

2017-09-01

Travellers' diarrhoea is the most common health problem in travellers. Depending on the region visited, up to 40% of travellers develop diarrhoea during a 2-week trip. The aim of this study was to assess risk factors for TD among travellers to the Indian subcontinent. An observational prospective multicentre cohort study investigated travellers to the Indian subcontinent. Participants completed questionnaires assessing the incidence of travellers' diarrhoea and identifying potential risk factors. Covariates were assessed univariately, followed by a multivariate regression. Two-hundred and twenty-six travellers were enrolled into the study, 178 filled in both pre- and post-travel questionnaires. Overall, the attack rate of travellers' diarrhoea was 38.2%. Travel destination is a key risk factor for the occurrence of TD. Travelling to India or Nepal vs Bhutan is associated with an increased risk for TD (OR 6.68 and 6.62, respectively). A length of stay of more than 3 weeks compared to less than 2 weeks is also associated with a significantly increased risk (OR 5.45). Having stayed in a high-risk area for travellers' diarrhoea within the past year before the current trip is associated with a significantly decreased risk (OR 0.19). No association was found between consumption of high risk food (i.e. tap water, ice cream, raw meat and hamburgers) and travellers' diarrhoea. Travellers' diarrhoea is a frequent problem in travellers to the Indian subcontinent. Previous exposure in a high-risk area for travellers' diarrhoea within the past year appears to have a significant protective effect. Furthermore, an association between the occurrence of travellers' diarrhoea and travel destination and length of stay, respectively, was observed. Consumption of risk food did not confer a TD risk in our study. © International Society of Travel Medicine, 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

Disturbed functional connectivity of cortical activation during semantic discrimination in patients with schizophrenia and subjects at genetic high-risk.

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Li, Xiaobo; Branch, Craig A; Nierenberg, Jay; Delisi, Lynn E

2010-03-01

Schizophrenia has a strong genetic component that is relevant to the understanding of the pathophysiology of the syndrome. Thus, recent investigations have shifted from studies of diagnosed patients with schizophrenia to examining their unaffected relatives. Previous studies found that during language processing, relatives thought to be at genetic high-risk for the disorder exhibit aberrant functional activation in regions of language processing, specifically in the left inferior frontal gyrus (Broca's area). However, functional connectivity among the regions involved in language pathways is not well understood. In this study, we examined the functional connectivity between a seed located in Broca's area and the remainder of the brain during a visual lexical decision task, in 20 schizophrenia patients, 21 subjects at genetic high risk for the disorder and 21 healthy controls. Both the high-risk subjects and patients showed significantly reduced activation correlations between seed and regions related to visual language processing. Compared to the high-risk subjects, the schizophrenia patients showed even fewer regions that were correlated with the seed regions. These results suggest that there is aberrant functional connectivity within cortical language circuitry in high-risk subjects and patients with schizophrenia. Broca's area, which is one of the important regions for language processing in healthy controls, had a significantly reduced role in the high-risk subjects and patients with schizophrenia. Our findings are consistent with the existence of an underlying biological disturbance that begins in genetically at risk individuals and progresses to a greater extent in those who eventually develop schizophrenia.

Population at high-risk of indoor heatstroke: the usage of cooling appliances among urban elderlies in Japan.

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Kondo, Masahide; Ono, Masaji; Nakazawa, Kouichi; Kayaba, Momoko; Minakuchi, Emiko; Sugimoto, Kazutoshi; Honda, Yasushi

2013-05-01

Heatstroke due to a heat wave during the summer is one of the commonly known health impacts of climate change in Japan. The elderly are particularly at high-risk of developing indoor heatstroke with poor prognosis. This study aims to describe the population among elderlies at high-risk of indoor heatstroke by focusing on the usage of cooling appliances. We conducted a web-based household survey in eight urban areas during the winter season of 2011. Households with a person aged 65 and over were selected as samples from panel members of a research firm, and the oldest member of the household was queried about his/her usage of cooling appliances. The population at high-risk of indoor heatstroke is defined as the elderly staying in a room without cooling appliances, or not using the installed cooling appliances, or turning the cooling appliances on only when the room temperature is above 28 °C. 15.4 and 19.1 % of the elderlies living in urban areas of Japan are identified as at high-risk of indoor heatstroke during activity time and sleeping time, respectively, according to the definition of high-risk of indoor heatstroke in this study. These figures are not negligible since the consequences of heatstroke are grave, but its risk can be eliminated by an appropriate usage of cooling appliances. The preventive interventions are needed to protect the elderlies at high-risk of heatstroke.

Social and environmental malaria risk factors in urban areas of Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso

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Ouedraogo Herman

2009-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Despite low endemicity, malaria remains a major health problem in urban areas where a high proportion of fevers are presumptively treated using anti-malarial drugs. Low acquired malaria immunity, behaviour of city-dwellers, access to health care and preventive interventions, and heterogenic suitability of urban ecosystems for malaria transmission contribute to the complexity of the malaria epidemiology in urban areas. Methods The study was designed to identify the determinants of malaria transmission estimated by the prevalence of anti-circumsporozoite (CSP antibodies, the prevalence and density of Plasmodium falciparum infection, and the prevalence of malarial disease in areas of Ouagadougou, Burkina-Faso. Thick blood smears, dried blood spots and clinical status have been collected from 3,354 randomly chosen children aged 6 months to 12 years using two cross-sectional surveys (during the dry and rainy seasons in eight areas from four ecological strata defined according to building density and land tenure (regular versus irregular. Demographic characteristics, socio-economic information, and sanitary and environmental data concerning the children or their households were simultaneously collected. Dependent variables were analysed using mixed multivariable models with random effects, taking into account the clustering of participants within compounds and areas. Results Overall prevalences of CSP-antibodies and P. falciparum infections were 7.7% and 16.6% during the dry season, and 12.4% and 26.1% during the rainy season, respectively, with significant differences according to ecological strata. Malaria risk was significantly higher among children who i lived in households with lower economic or education levels, iii near the hydrographic network, iv in sparsely built-up areas, v in irregularly built areas, vi who did not use a bed net, vii were sampled during the rainy season or ii had traveled outside of Ouagadougou

Thyroid nodularity and chromosome aberrations among women in areas of high background radiation in China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Z.Y.; Boice, J.D. Jr.; Wei, L.X.; Beebe, G.W.; Zha, Y.R.; Kaplan, M.M.; Tao, Z.F.; Maxon, H.R. III; Zhang, S.Z.; Schneider, A.B.

1990-01-01

Thyroid nodularity following continuous low-dose radiation exposure in China was determined in 1,001 women aged 50-65 years who resided in areas of high background radiation (330 mR/yr) their entire lives, and in 1,005 comparison subjects exposed to normal levels of radiation (114 mR/yr). Cumulative doses to the thyroid were estimated to be of the order of 14 cGy and 5 cGy, respectively. Personal interviews and physical examinations were conducted, and measurements were made of serum thyroid hormone levels, urinary iodine concentrations, and chromosome aberrations in circulating lymphocytes. For all nodular disease, the prevalences in the high background and control areas were 9.5% and 9.3%, respectively. For single nodules, the prevalences were 7.4% in the high background area and 6.6% in the control area (prevalence ratio = 1.13; 95% confidence interval = 0.82-1.55). There were no differences found in serum levels of thyroid hormones. Women in the high background region, however, had significantly lower concentrations of urinary iodine and significantly higher frequencies of stable and unstable chromosome aberrations. Increased intake of allium vegetables such as garlic and onions was associated with a decreased risk of nodular disease, which seems consistent with experimental studies suggesting that allium compounds can inhibit tumor growth and proliferation. The prevalence of mild diffuse goiter was higher in the high background radiation region, perhaps related to a low dietary intake of iodine. These data suggest that continuous exposure to low-level radiation throughout life is unlikely to appreciably increase the risk of thyroid cancer. However, such exposure may cause chromosomal damage

A method for managing re-identification risk from small geographic areas in Canada

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Neisa Angelica

2010-04-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background A common disclosure control practice for health datasets is to identify small geographic areas and either suppress records from these small areas or aggregate them into larger ones. A recent study provided a method for deciding when an area is too small based on the uniqueness criterion. The uniqueness criterion stipulates that an the area is no longer too small when the proportion of unique individuals on the relevant variables (the quasi-identifiers approaches zero. However, using a uniqueness value of zero is quite a stringent threshold, and is only suitable when the risks from data disclosure are quite high. Other uniqueness thresholds that have been proposed for health data are 5% and 20%. Methods We estimated uniqueness for urban Forward Sortation Areas (FSAs by using the 2001 long form Canadian census data representing 20% of the population. We then constructed two logistic regression models to predict when the uniqueness is greater than the 5% and 20% thresholds, and validated their predictive accuracy using 10-fold cross-validation. Predictor variables included the population size of the FSA and the maximum number of possible values on the quasi-identifiers (the number of equivalence classes. Results All model parameters were significant and the models had very high prediction accuracy, with specificity above 0.9, and sensitivity at 0.87 and 0.74 for the 5% and 20% threshold models respectively. The application of the models was illustrated with an analysis of the Ontario newborn registry and an emergency department dataset. At the higher thresholds considerably fewer records compared to the 0% threshold would be considered to be in small areas and therefore undergo disclosure control actions. We have also included concrete guidance for data custodians in deciding which one of the three uniqueness thresholds to use (0%, 5%, 20%, depending on the mitigating controls that the data recipients have in place, the

Prescription of the High Risk Narcotics and Trading or Illicit Purchasing of High Risk Narcotics

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Nicoleta-Elena Buzatu

2012-05-01

Full Text Available The present essay will analyze the offence of prescribing high risk narcotics and trading or illicit purchasing of high risk narcotics, as it was regulated - together with other offences - by Law no 143 of July 26, 2000 on preventing and fighting against the traffic and illicit consumption of narcotics. The same law defines the meaning of such a phrase “substances which are under national control” by mentioning the fact that they are the narcotics and their precursors listed in Annexes I-IV of the law. The analysis of the offence of prescribing the high risk narcotics and trading or illicit purchasing of high risk narcotics is following the already known structure mentioned in the doctrine and which consists of: object and subjects of the offence, its constituent content: the objective side with its material element, the immediate consequence and causality connections; the subjective side of the offence, as well as forms and modalities of these offences, and the applicable sanctions, of course.

Avian Monitoring and Risk Assessment at the San Gorgonio Wind Resource Area

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Anderson, R.; Tom, J.; Neumann, N.; Erickson, W. P.; Strickland, M. D.; Bourassa, M.; Bay, K. J.; Sernka, K. J.

2005-08-01

The primary objective of this study at the San Gorgonio Wind Resource Area was to estimate and compare bird utilization, fatality rates, and the risk index among factors including bird taxonomic groups, wind turbine and reference areas, wind turbine sizes and types, and geographic locations. The key questions addressed to meet this objective include: (1) Are there any differences in the level of bird activity, called ''utilization rate'' or ''use'', with the operating wind plant and within the surrounding undeveloped areas (reference area)?; (2) Are there any differences in the rate of bird fatalities (or avian fatality) within the operating wind plant or the surrounding undeveloped areas (reference area)?; (3) Does bird use, fatality rates, or bird risk index vary according to the geographic location, type and size of wind turbine, and/or type of bird within the operating wind plant and surrounding undeveloped areas (reference area)?; and (4) How do raptor fatality rates at San Gorgonio compare to other wind projects with comparable data?

Behavioral Risk Factors: Selected Metropolitan Area Risk Trends (SMART) County Prevalence Data (2011 to 2012)

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U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — 2011 to 2012. BRFSS SMART County Prevalence combined land line and cell phone data. The Selected Metropolitan Area Risk Trends (SMART) project uses the Behavioral...

Behavioral Risk Factors: Selected Metropolitan Area Risk Trends (SMART) MMSA Prevalence Data (2011 to Present)

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U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — 2011 to present. BRFSS SMART MMSA Prevalence combined land line and cell phone data. The Selected Metropolitan Area Risk Trends (SMART) project uses the Behavioral...

Identification of soil erosion risk areas for conservation planning in different states of India.

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Sharda, V N; Mandal, Debashis; Ojasvi, P R

2013-03-01

Assessment of soil erosion risks, especially in the developing countries, is a challenging task mainly due to non-availability or insufficiency of relevant data. In this paper, the soil erosion risks have been estimated by integrating the spatial data on potential erosion rates and soil loss tolerance limits for conservation planning at state level in India. The erosion risk classes have been prioritized based upon the difference between the prevailing erosion rates and the permissible erosion limits. The analysis revealed that about 50% of total geographical area (TGA) of India, falling in five priority erosion risk classes, requires different intensity of conservation measures though about 91% area suffers from potential erosion rates varying from 40 t ha(-1) yr(-1). Statewise analysis indicated that Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra and Rajasthan share about 75% of total area under priority Class 1 (6.4 M ha) though they account for only 19.4% of the total area (36.2 M ha) under very severe potential erosion rate category (> 40 t ha(-1)yr(-1)). It was observed that about 75% of total geographical area (TGA) in the states of Bihar, Gujarat, Haryana, Kerala and Punjab does not require any specific soil conservation measure as the potential erosion rates are well within the tolerance limits. The developed methodology can be successfully employed for prioritization of erosion risk areas at watershed, region or country level.

Socio-ecological risk factors for prime-age adult death in two coastal areas of Vietnam.

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Kim, Deok Ryun; Ali, Mohammad; Thiem, Vu Dinh; Wierzba, Thomas F

2014-01-01

Hierarchical spatial models enable the geographic and ecological analysis of health data thereby providing useful information for designing effective health interventions. In this study, we used a Bayesian hierarchical spatial model to evaluate mortality data in Vietnam. The model enabled identification of socio-ecological risk factors and generation of risk maps to better understand the causes and geographic implications of prime-age (15 to less than 45 years) adult death. The study was conducted in two sites: Nha Trang and Hue in Vietnam. The study areas were split into 500×500 meter cells to define neighborhoods. We first extracted socio-demographic data from population databases of the two sites, and then aggregated the data by neighborhood. We used spatial hierarchical model that borrows strength from neighbors for evaluating risk factors and for creating spatially smoothed risk map after adjusting for neighborhood level covariates. The Markov chain Monte Carlo procedure was used to estimate the parameters. Male mortality was more than twice the female mortality. The rates also varied by age and sex. The most frequent cause of mortality was traffic accidents and drowning for men and traffic accidents and suicide for women. Lower education of household heads in the neighborhood was an important risk factor for increased mortality. The mortality was highly variable in space and the socio-ecological risk factors are sensitive to study site and sex. Our study suggests that lower education of the household head is an important predictor for prime age adult mortality. Variability in socio-ecological risk factors and in risk areas by sex make it challenging to design appropriate intervention strategies aimed at decreasing prime-age adult deaths in Vietnam.

Radical prostatectomy for high-risk prostate cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Yossepowitch, Ofer; Eastham, James A

2008-06-01

Consensus recommendations for the identification and treatment of men whose apparent organ confined prostate cancer has high risk features are lacking. Despite ongoing refinements in surgical technique and improvements in morbidity and functional outcomes, the tradition of steering high-risk patients away from radical prostatectomy (RP) remains steadfast. We performed a medical literature search in English using MEDLINE/PubMed that addressed high risk prostate cancer. We analyzed the literature with respect to the historical evolution of this concept, current risk stratification schemes and treatment guidelines and related short and long term outcomes following RP. Contemporary evidence suggest that patients classified with high-risk prostate cancer by commonly used definitions do not have a uniformly poor prognosis after RP. Many cancers categorized clinically as high risk are actually pathologically confined to the prostate, and most men with such cancers who undergo RP are alive and free of additional therapy long after surgery. RP in the high-risk setting appears to be associated with a similar morbidity as in lower-risk patients. Men with clinically localized high-risk prostate cancer should not be categorically disqualified from local definitive therapy with RP. With careful attention to surgical technique, cancer control rates should improve further, and adverse effects on quality of life after RP should continue to decrease.

[Prevalence of metabolic syndrome and cardiovascular risk in an urban area of Murcia].

Science.gov (United States)

Fernández-Ruiz, Virginia E; Paniagua-Urbano, José A; Solé-Agustí, María; Ruiz-Sánchez, Alfonso; Gómez-Marín, José

2014-11-01

It is extensive scientific literature that has defined the metabolic syndrome as a precursor of cardiovascular disease. To estimate the prevalence of metabolic syndrome and cardiovascular risk in the population of a basic health area of Murcia. Cross sectional study population of the district health "The Esparragal" random sample of the population between 18 and 86 years living in the area. Personal history were collected and held a relevant clinical, anthropometric data and analytics for the estimation of Metabolic Syndrome and Cardiovascular Risk following criteria dictated by the current literature, adjusted for sex and age. The mean age of the study population was 59.34 ± 14.79 years, with 52.5% males. The overall prevalence of metabolic syndrome criteria World Health Organization is presented 36.8%, a figure increased under International Diabetes Ferderation recommendations to 58.2% and according to National Cholesterol Education Program, an estimated 53.5%. The presentation of this syndrome is slightly higher in men (54.1 versus 52.8 %), and in parallel with increasing age (p < 0.001). The prevalence of people at high risk of cardiovascular disease is 32.1 % (95 % CI 29.4 to 34.8), with 45.2 % (95% CI 41.2 to 49.2) in men and 17.6% (95% CI 14.4 to 20.8) in women. The prevalence of metabolic syndrome and cardiovascular risk in the study population is the highest found in Spain in population studies, indicating an invaluable population on which preventive measures. Copyright AULA MEDICA EDICIONES 2014. Published by AULA MEDICA. All rights reserved.

Delimitation of kala-azar risk areas in the district of Vaishali in Bihar (India using a geo-environmental approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gouri Sankar Bhunia

2012-08-01

Full Text Available Remote sensing and geographical information technologies were used to discriminate areas of high and low risk for contracting kala-azar or visceral leishmaniasis. Satellite data were digitally processed to generate maps of land cover and spectral indices, such as the normalised difference vegetation index and wetness index. To map estimated vector abundance and indoor climate data, local polynomial interpolations were used based on the weightage values. Attribute layers were prepared based on illiteracy and the unemployed proportion of the population and associated with village boundaries. Pearson's correlation coefficient was used to estimate the relationship between environmental variables and disease incidence across the study area. The cell values for each input raster in the analysis were assigned values from the evaluation scale. Simple weighting/ratings based on the degree of favourable conditions for kala-azar transmission were used for all the variables, leading to geo-environmental risk model. Variables such as, land use/land cover, vegetation conditions, surface dampness, the indoor climate, illiteracy rates and the size of the unemployed population were considered for inclusion in the geo-environmental kala-azar risk model. The risk model was stratified into areas of "risk"and "non-risk"for the disease, based on calculation of risk indices. The described approach constitutes a promising tool for microlevel kala-azar surveillance and aids in directing control efforts.

Oral Microbiota and Risk for Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma in a High-Risk Area of China

OpenAIRE

Chen, Xingdong; Winckler, Bj?rn; Lu, Ming; Cheng, Hongwei; Yuan, Ziyu; Yang, Yajun; Jin, Li; Ye, Weimin

2015-01-01

Poor oral health has been linked with an increased risk of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). We investigated whether alteration of oral microbiota is associated with ESCC risk. Fasting saliva samples were collected from 87 incident and histopathologicallly diagnosed ESCC cases, 63 subjects with dysplasia and 85 healthy controls. All subjects were also interviewed with a questionnaire. V3-V4 region of 16S rRNA was amplified and sequenced by 454-pyrosequencing platform. Carriage of eac...

Geo-environmental model for the prediction of potential transmission risk of Dirofilaria in an area with dry climate and extensive irrigated crops. The case of Spain.

Science.gov (United States)

Simón, Luis; Afonin, Alexandr; López-Díez, Lucía Isabel; González-Miguel, Javier; Morchón, Rodrigo; Carretón, Elena; Montoya-Alonso, José Alberto; Kartashev, Vladimir; Simón, Fernando

2014-03-01

Zoonotic filarioses caused by Dirofilaria immitis and Dirofilaria repens are transmitted by culicid mosquitoes. Therefore Dirofilaria transmission depends on climatic factors like temperature and humidity. In spite of the dry climate of most of the Spanish territory, there are extensive irrigated crops areas providing moist habitats favourable for mosquito breeding. A GIS model to predict the risk of Dirofilaria transmission in Spain, based on temperatures and rainfall data as well as in the distribution of irrigated crops areas, is constructed. The model predicts that potential risk of Dirofilaria transmission exists in all the Spanish territory. Highest transmission risk exists in several areas of Andalucía, Extremadura, Castilla-La Mancha, Murcia, Valencia, Aragón and Cataluña, where moderate/high temperatures coincide with extensive irrigated crops. High risk in Balearic Islands and in some points of Canary Islands, is also predicted. The lowest risk is predicted in Northern cold and scarcely or non-irrigated dry Southeastern areas. The existence of irrigations locally increases transmission risk in low rainfall areas of the Spanish territory. The model can contribute to implement rational preventive therapy guidelines in accordance with the transmission characteristics of each local area. Moreover, the use of humidity-related factors could be of interest in future predictions to be performed in countries with similar environmental characteristics. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Development of Triad approach based system for ecological risk assessment for contaminated areas of Kyrgyzstan

Science.gov (United States)

Kydralieva, Kamilia; Uzbekov, Beksultan; Khudaibergenova, Bermet; Terekhova, Vera; Jorobekova, Sharipa

2014-05-01

This research is aimed to develop a high-effective system of an ecological risk assessment and risk-based decision making for anthropogenic ecosystems, with particular focus on the soils of the Kyrgyz Republic. The study is focused on the integration of Triad data including chemical, biological and ecotoxicological soil markers to estimate the potential risk from soils of highly anthropized areas impacted by deposition of different pollutants from mining operation. We focus on technogenic areas of Kyrgyzstan, the former uranium-producing province. Triad-based ecological risk assessment for technogenic sites are not currently used in Kyrgyzstan. However, the vitality of such research is self-evident. There are about 50 tailing dumps and more than 80 tips of radioactive waste which are formed as a result of uranium and complex ores (mercury, antimony, lead, cadmium and etc) mining around the unfavorable aforementioned places. According to the Mining Wastes' Tailings and Fills Rehabilitation Centre established in 1999 by a special Government's Resolution, one of the most ecologically dangerous uranium tailings resides in Kadzhi-Say. Although uranium processing is no longer practiced in Kadzhi-Say, a large number of open landfills and uranium ore storages still remain abandoned at the vicinity of this settlement. These neglected sites have enormous problems associated with soil erosion known as "technogenic deserts". The upper soil horizons are deprived of humus and vegetation, which favor the formation of low-buffer landscapes in the zones of maximum contamination. As a result, most of these areas are not re-cultivated and remain in critical environmental condition (Bykovchenko, et al., 2005; Tukhvatshin, 2005; Suranova, 2006). Triad data for assessing environmental risk and biological vulnerability at contaminated sites will be integrated. The following Triad-based parameters will be employed: 1) chemical soil analyses (revealing the presence of potentially dangerous

Risk analysis of the LHC underground area fire risk due to faulty electrical equipment

CERN Document Server

Harrison, A

2007-01-01

The European Organisation for Nuclear Research (CERN) in Geneva, Switzerland, is currently building the latest generation of particle accelerators, the LHC (Large Hadron Collider). The machine is housed in a circular tunnel of 27 km of circumference and is situated approximately 100 metres beneath the surface astride the Franco-Swiss border. Electrically induced fires in the LHC are a major concern, since an incident could present a threat to CERN personnel as well as the public. Moreover, the loss of equipment would result in significant costs and downtime. However, the amount of electrical equipment in the underground area required for operation, supervision and control of the machine is essential. Thus the present thesis is assessing the risk of fire due to faulty electrical equipment in both a qualitative as well as quantitative way. The recommendations following the qualitative analysis suggest the introduction of fire protection zones for the areas with the highest risk of fire due to a combination of p...

Novel strategies lead to pre-elimination of malaria in previously high-risk areas in Suriname, South America

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hiwat, H.; Hardjopawiro, L.S.; Takken, W.; Villegas, L.

2012-01-01

Background Suriname was a high malaria risk country before the introduction of a new five-year malaria control program in 2005, the Medical Mission Malaria Programme (MM-MP). Malaria was endemic in the forested interior, where especially the stabile village communities were affected. Case

Risks of avian influenza transmission in areas of intensive free-ranging duck production with wild waterfowl

Science.gov (United States)

Cappelle, Julien; Zhao, Delong; Gilbert, Marius; Newman, Scott H.; Takekawa, John Y.; Gaidet, Nicolas; Prosser, Diann J.; Liu, Ying; Li, Peng; Shu, Yuelong; Xiao, Xiangming

2014-01-01

For decades, southern China has been considered to be an important source for emerging influenza viruses since key hosts live together in high densities in areas with intensive agriculture. However, the underlying conditions of emergence and spread of avian influenza viruses (AIV) have not been studied in detail, particularly the complex spatiotemporal interplay of viral transmission between wild and domestic ducks, two major actors of AIV epidemiology. In this synthesis, we examine the risks of avian influenza spread in Poyang Lake, an area of intensive free-ranging duck production and large numbers of wild waterfowl. Our synthesis shows that farming of free-grazing domestic ducks is intensive in this area and synchronized with wild duck migration. The presence of juvenile domestic ducks in harvested paddy fields prior to the arrival and departure of migrant ducks in the same fields may amplify the risk of AIV circulation and facilitate the transmission between wild and domestic populations. We provide evidence associating wild ducks migration with the spread of H5N1 in the spring of 2008 from southern China to South Korea, Russia, and Japan, supported by documented wild duck movements and phylogenetic analyses of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 sequences. We suggest that prevention measures based on a modification of agricultural practices may be implemented in these areas to reduce the intensity of AIV transmission between wild and domestic ducks. This would require involving all local stakeholders to discuss feasible and acceptable solutions.

Assessing Landscape Scale Wildfire Exposure for Highly Valued Resources in a Mediterranean Area

Science.gov (United States)

Alcasena, Fermín J.; Salis, Michele; Ager, Alan A.; Arca, Bachisio; Molina, Domingo; Spano, Donatella

2015-05-01

We used a fire simulation modeling approach to assess landscape scale wildfire exposure for highly valued resources and assets (HVR) on a fire-prone area of 680 km2 located in central Sardinia, Italy. The study area was affected by several wildfires in the last half century: some large and intense fire events threatened wildland urban interfaces as well as other socioeconomic and cultural values. Historical wildfire and weather data were used to inform wildfire simulations, which were based on the minimum travel time algorithm as implemented in FlamMap. We simulated 90,000 fires that replicated recent large fire events in the area spreading under severe weather conditions to generate detailed maps of wildfire likelihood and intensity. Then, we linked fire modeling outputs to a geospatial risk assessment framework focusing on buffer areas around HVR. The results highlighted a large variation in burn probability and fire intensity in the vicinity of HVRs, and allowed us to identify the areas most exposed to wildfires and thus to a higher potential damage. Fire intensity in the HVR buffers was mainly related to fuel types, while wind direction, topographic features, and historically based ignition pattern were the key factors affecting fire likelihood. The methodology presented in this work can have numerous applications, in the study area and elsewhere, particularly to address and inform fire risk management, landscape planning and people safety on the vicinity of HVRs.

Assessing landscape scale wildfire exposure for highly valued resources in a Mediterranean area.

Science.gov (United States)

Alcasena, Fermín J; Salis, Michele; Ager, Alan A; Arca, Bachisio; Molina, Domingo; Spano, Donatella

2015-05-01

We used a fire simulation modeling approach to assess landscape scale wildfire exposure for highly valued resources and assets (HVR) on a fire-prone area of 680 km(2) located in central Sardinia, Italy. The study area was affected by several wildfires in the last half century: some large and intense fire events threatened wildland urban interfaces as well as other socioeconomic and cultural values. Historical wildfire and weather data were used to inform wildfire simulations, which were based on the minimum travel time algorithm as implemented in FlamMap. We simulated 90,000 fires that replicated recent large fire events in the area spreading under severe weather conditions to generate detailed maps of wildfire likelihood and intensity. Then, we linked fire modeling outputs to a geospatial risk assessment framework focusing on buffer areas around HVR. The results highlighted a large variation in burn probability and fire intensity in the vicinity of HVRs, and allowed us to identify the areas most exposed to wildfires and thus to a higher potential damage. Fire intensity in the HVR buffers was mainly related to fuel types, while wind direction, topographic features, and historically based ignition pattern were the key factors affecting fire likelihood. The methodology presented in this work can have numerous applications, in the study area and elsewhere, particularly to address and inform fire risk management, landscape planning and people safety on the vicinity of HVRs.

Client experiences with perinatal healthcare for high-risk and low-risk women

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Stenus, Cherelle M.V.; Boere-Boonekamp, Magda M.; Kerkhof, Erna F.G.M.; Need, Ariana

2018-01-01

Problem: It is unknown if client experiences with perinatal healthcare differ between low-risk and high-risk women. Background: In the Netherlands, risk selection divides pregnant women into low- and high-risk groups. Receiving news that a pregnancy or childbirth has an increased likelihood of

Risk and Geodynamically active areas of Carpathian lithosphere

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lubomil Pospíšil

2007-01-01

Full Text Available This paper illustrates an application of multidisciplinary data analysis to the Carpathian–Pannonian region and presents a verification of a Complex model of the Carpathian - Pannonian lithosphere by recent data sets and geophysical data analyses and its utilization for the determination of risk and active geodynamic and tectonic zones of Ist order . This model can be used for the analysing any Carpathian area from the point of view of the seismic risk, hazards and geodynamic activity, which is important to know for the building of a repository for the radioactive wasted material. Besides the traditionally used geological (sedimentological and volcanological data and geomorphological data (Remote Sensing, an emphasis was laid on geodetic, grav/mag data, seismic, seismological and other geophysical data (magnetotelluric, heat flow, paleomagnetic etc.. All available geonomic (geologic, geodetic, geophysical, geomorphological data were verified and unified on the basis of the same scale and in the Western Carpathians on the Remote Sensing data. The paper concentrates on two problematic areas – the so call “rebounding area” in the Eastern Carpathians and the Raba – Muran - Malcov tectonic systems.

Health risk assessment of drinking arsenic-containing groundwater in Hasilpur, Pakistan: effect of sampling area, depth, and source.

Science.gov (United States)

Tabassum, Riaz Ahmad; Shahid, Muhammad; Dumat, Camille; Niazi, Nabeel Khan; Khalid, Sana; Shah, Noor Samad; Imran, Muhammad; Khalid, Samina

2018-02-10

Currently, several news channels and research publications have highlighted the dilemma of arsenic (As)-contaminated groundwater in Pakistan. However, there is lack of data regarding groundwater As content of various areas in Pakistan. The present study evaluated As contamination and associated health risks in previously unexplored groundwater of Hasilpur-Pakistan. Total of 61 groundwater samples were collected from different areas (rural and urban), sources (electric pump, hand pump, and tubewell) and depths (35-430 ft or 11-131 m). The water samples were analyzed for As level and other parameters such as pH, electrical conductivity, total dissolved solids, cations, and anions. It was found that 41% (25 out of 61) water samples contained As (≥ 5 μg/L). Out of 25 As-contaminated water samples, 13 water samples exceeded the permissible level of WHO (10 μg/L). High As contents have been found in tubewell samples and at high sampling depths (> 300 ft). The major As-contaminated groundwater in Hasilpur is found in urban areas. Furthermore, health risk and cancer risk due to As contamination were also assessed with respect to average daily dose (ADD), hazard quotient (HQ), and carcinogenic risk (CR). The values of HQ and CR of As in Hasilpur were up to 58 and 0.00231, respectively. Multivariate analysis revealed a positive correlation between groundwater As contents, pH, and depth in Hasilpur. The current study proposed the proper monitoring and management of well water in Hasilpur to minimize the As-associated health hazards.

[Heavy Metals Pollution in Topsoil from Dagang Industry Area and Its Ecological Risk Assessment].

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Qian; Chen, Zong-juan; Peng, Chang-sheng; Li, Fa-sheng; Gu, Qing-bao

2015-11-01

Based on previous studies and field investigation of Dagang industry area in Tianjin, a total of 128 topsoil samples were collected, and contents of 10 heavy metals (As, Cd, Cr, Co, Cu, Pb, Ni, V, Zn and Hg) were determined. The geoaccumulation index and geostatistics were applied to examine the degree of contamination and spatial distribution of heavy metals in topsoil. The assessment on ecological risk of heavy metals was carried out using Hakanson's method, and the main resources of the heavy metals were analyzed as well. It was found that As, Cd and Co had the highest proportions exceeding Tianjin background value, which were 100%, 97.66% and 96.88%, respectively; the heavy-metal content increased to some extent comparing with that in 2004, and the pollutions of As and Cd were the worst, and other metals were at moderate pollution level or below. The ecological risks of heavy metals were different in topsoil with different land use types, the farmland soil in the southwest as well as soils adjacent to the industrial land were at relatively high potential ecological risk level, and the integrated ecological risk index reached up to 1 437.37. Analysis of correlation and principal component showed that traffic and transportation as well as agricultural activities might be the main resources of heavy metals in the area, besides, the industrial activities in the region might also affect the accumulation of heavy metals.

Quantitative risk assessment of the New York State operated West Valley Radioactive Waste Disposal Area.

Science.gov (United States)

Garrick, B John; Stetkar, John W; Bembia, Paul J

2010-08-01

This article is based on a quantitative risk assessment (QRA) that was performed on a radioactive waste disposal area within the Western New York Nuclear Service Center in western New York State. The QRA results were instrumental in the decision by the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority to support a strategy of in-place management of the disposal area for another decade. The QRA methodology adopted for this first of a kind application was a scenario-based approach in the framework of the triplet definition of risk (scenarios, likelihoods, consequences). The measure of risk is the frequency of occurrence of different levels of radiation dose to humans at prescribed locations. The risk from each scenario is determined by (1) the frequency of disruptive events or natural processes that cause a release of radioactive materials from the disposal area; (2) the physical form, quantity, and radionuclide content of the material that is released during each scenario; (3) distribution, dilution, and deposition of the released materials throughout the environment surrounding the disposal area; and (4) public exposure to the distributed material and the accumulated radiation dose from that exposure. The risks of the individual scenarios are assembled into a representation of the risk from the disposal area. In addition to quantifying the total risk to the public, the analysis ranks the importance of each contributing scenario, which facilitates taking corrective actions and implementing effective risk management. Perhaps most importantly, quantification of the uncertainties is an intrinsic part of the risk results. This approach to safety analysis has demonstrated many advantages of applying QRA principles to assessing the risk of facilities involving hazardous materials.

Improving antenatal risk assessment in women exposed to high risks.

Science.gov (United States)

Perry, Natasha; Newman, Louise K; Hunter, Mick; Dunlop, Adrian

2015-01-01

Antenatal substance use and related psychosocial risk factors are known to increase the likelihood of child protection involvement; less is known about the predictive nature of maternal reflective functioning (RF) in this population. This preliminary study assessed psychosocial and psychological risk factors for a group of substance dependent women exposed to high risks in pregnancy, and their impact on child protection involvement. Pregnant women on opiate substitution treatment (n = 11) and a comparison group (n = 15) were recruited during their third trimester to complete measures of RF (Pregnancy Interview), childhood trauma, mental health and psychosocial assessments. At postnatal follow-up, RF was reassessed (Parent Development Interview - Revised Short Version) and mother-infant dyads were videotaped to assess emotional availability (EA). Child protection services were contacted to determine if any concerns had been raised for infant safety. Significant between-group differences were observed for demographics, psychosocial factors, trauma and mental health symptoms. Unexpectedly, no significant differences were found for RF or EA between groups. Eight women in the 'exposed to high risks' group became involved with child protection services. Reflective functioning was not significantly associated with psychosocial risk factors, and therefore did not mediate the outcome of child protection involvement. Women 'exposed to high risks' were equally able to generate a model of their own and their infants' mental states and should not be seen within a deficit perspective. Further research is required to better understand the range of risk factors that predict child protection involvement in high risk groups. © The Author(s) 2013.

Modelling of Malaria Risk Areas in Ghana by using Environmental ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Michael

2015-12-02

Dec 2, 2015 ... control in time and space to be prepared for outbreaks, which ... developing dynamic and area-specific risk maps to ... disease outbreaks including vaccination (Haydon et ... analyse malaria data against certain environmental.

Environmental risk assessment in an oil production station near a mangrove area

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Z' Graggen, M.; Moraes, R.; Ferreira, H.; Thomas, C. [Golder Associates, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil); Linhares, M.; Vaqueiro, R.L.C.; Sauerbronn, J.L.B. [PETROBRAS, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

2004-07-01

Pedra Branca Station is an oil production area that pumps, stores and transfers crude oil from wells located near the station. It is located 2 km of the mouth of the Sao Paulo River, northeast Brazil, in a mangrove area of social, economical and environmental importance. During the past 30+ years of operation, the area has been contaminated with leaks and spills of crude oil from pipelines and storage tanks. The assessment aimed to verify if local conditions represent risk to maintenance workers at the Station, nearby residents that collect firewood and shellfish and that consume shellfish from the Site. Crab and oyster samples were collected and analyzed and a questionnaire concerning activities of workers and residents was administrated. Contaminants of potential concern included barium, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and petroleum hydrocarbons. Potential risks associated with soil/sediment ingestion, dermal contact with soil/sediment and ingestion of shellfish were evaluated. The study indicated that risks to maintenance worker and nearby residents due to exposure to non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic substances present in soil, sediment, and shellfish were below limits considered acceptable to regulatory authorities. The evaluation provided scientific bases for decision making regarding the management of the contaminated area. (author)

Validation and Assessment of Three Methods to Estimate 24-h Urinary Sodium Excretion from Spot Urine Samples in High-Risk Elder Patients of Stroke from the Rural Areas of Shaanxi Province.

Science.gov (United States)

Ma, Wenxia; Yin, Xuejun; Zhang, Ruijuan; Liu, Furong; Yang, Danrong; Fan, Yameng; Rong, Jie; Tian, Maoyi; Yu, Yan

2017-10-11

Background : 24-h urine collection is regarded as the "gold standard" for monitoring sodium intake at the population level, but ensuring high quality urine samples is difficult to achieve. The Kawasaki, International Study of Sodium, Potassium, and Blood Pressure (INTERSALT) and Tanaka methods have been used to estimate 24-h urinary sodium excretion from spot urine samples in some countries, but few studies have been performed to compare and validate these methods in the Chinese population. Objective : To compare and validate the Kawasaki, INTERSALT and Tanaka formulas in predicting 24-h urinary sodium excretion using spot urine samples in 365 high-risk elder patients of strokefrom the rural areas of Shaanxi province. Methods : Data were collected from a sub-sample of theSalt Substitute and Stroke Study. 365 high-risk elder patients of stroke from the rural areas of Shaanxi province participated and their spot and 24-h urine specimens were collected. The concentrations of sodium, potassium and creatinine in spot and 24-h urine samples wereanalysed. Estimated 24-h sodium excretion was predicted from spot urine concentration using the Kawasaki, INTERSALT, and Tanaka formulas. Pearson correlation coefficients and agreement by Bland-Altman method were computed for estimated and measured 24-h urinary sodium excretion. Results : The average 24-h urinary sodium excretion was 162.0 mmol/day, which representing a salt intake of 9.5 g/day. Three predictive equations had low correlation with the measured 24-h sodium excretion (r = 0.38, p h sodium excretion were observed (all p h sodium excretion. Conclusion : The Kawasaki, INTERSALT and Tanaka methods for estimation of 24-h urinary sodium excretion from spot urine specimens were inadequate for the assessment of sodium intake at the population level in high-risk elder patients of stroke from the rural areas of Shaanxi province, although the Kawasaki method was the least biased compared with the other two methods.

[Risk and features of occupational diseases in nonferrous metallurgy workers of Kolsky Transpolar area].

Science.gov (United States)

Siurin, S A; Chashchin, V P; Frolova, N M

2015-01-01

The study covered data on 977 cases of occupational diseases in 615 workers of nonferrous metallurgy in Kolsky Transpolar area. Findings are high risk of occupational diseases in workers engaged into electrolysis production of aluminium, all nickel reprocessing and pyrometallic copper reprocessing (GR 7.02-10.0). Electrolysis operators and anode operators of aluminium production are more prone to occupational diseases, with bone and muscular disorders (46.8%) prevalent in the morbidity structure. Respiratory diseases are more prevalent (68.2-100%) in the occupational morbidity structure of copper-nickelindustry workers. Conclusion is made on mandatory improvement of the work conditions and more effective individual protective means against occupational hazards in workers of nonferrous metallurgy in Kolsky Transpolar area.

[A model list of high risk drugs].

Science.gov (United States)

Cotrina Luque, J; Guerrero Aznar, M D; Alvarez del Vayo Benito, C; Jimenez Mesa, E; Guzman Laura, K P; Fernández Fernández, L

2013-12-01

«High-risk drugs» are those that have a very high «risk» of causing death or serious injury if an error occurs during its use. The Institute for Safe Medication Practices (ISMP) has prepared a high-risk drugs list applicable to the general population (with no differences between the pediatric and adult population). Thus, there is a lack of information for the pediatric population. The main objective of this work is to develop a high-risk drug list adapted to the neonatal or pediatric population as a reference model for the pediatric hospital health workforce. We made a literature search in May 2012 to identify any published lists or references in relation to pediatric and/or neonatal high-risk drugs. A total of 15 studies were found, from which 9 were selected. A model list was developed mainly based on the ISMP one, adding strongly perceived pediatric risk drugs and removing those where the pediatric use was anecdotal. There is no published list that suits pediatric risk management. The list of pediatric and neonatal high-risk drugs presented here could be a «reference list of high-risk drugs » for pediatric hospitals. Using this list and training will help to prevent medication errors in each drug supply chain (prescribing, transcribing, dispensing and administration). Copyright © 2013 Asociación Española de Pediatría. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

Risk perception and access to environmental information in four areas in Italy affected by natural or anthropogenic pollution.

Science.gov (United States)

Coi, A; Minichilli, F; Bustaffa, E; Carone, S; Santoro, M; Bianchi, F; Cori, L

2016-10-01

A human biomonitoring (HBM) survey in four areas affected by natural or anthropogenic arsenic pollution was conducted in Italy within the framework of the SEpiAs project. A questionnaire, including the exploration of risk perception (RP) regarding environmental hazards and access to and trust in information, was administered to 282 subjects stratified by area, gender and age. The survey was designed to investigate how populations living in polluted areas could adopt prevention-oriented habits, fostered by the awareness of existing risks and, in addition, how increased knowledge of RP and information flows could support researchers in identifying recommendations, and presenting and disseminating HBM results. This study characterizes the four areas in terms of RP and access to and trust in environmental information, and provides insights into the influence of RP and environmental information on food consumption. For the data analysis, a combined random forest (RF) and logistic regression approach was carried out. RF was applied to the variables derived from the questionnaire in order to identify the most important in terms of the aims defined. Associations were then tested using Fisher's exact test and assessed with logistic regression in order to adjust for confounders. Results showed that the perception of and personal exposure to atmospheric and water pollution, hazardous industries and waste, hazardous material transportation and waste was higher in geographical areas characterized by anthropogenic pollution. Citizens living in industrial areas appeared to be aware of environmental risks and had more confidence in environmental non-governmental organizations (NGOs) than in public authorities. In addition, they reported an insufficient circulation of information. Concerning the influence of RP and environmental information on food consumption, a high perception of personal exposure to atmospheric pollution and hazardous industries was associated with a lower

Danger zone: Men, masculinity and occupational health and safety in high risk occupations

OpenAIRE

Stergiou-Kita, Mary; Mansfield, Elizabeth; Bezo, Randy; Colantonio, Angela; Garritano, Enzo; Lafrance, Marc; Lewko, John; Mantis, Steve; Moody, Joel; Power, Nicole; Theberge, Nancy; Westwood, Eleanor; Travers, Krista

2015-01-01

The workplace is a key setting where gender issues and organizational structures may influence occupational health and safety practices. The enactment of dominant norms of masculinity in high risk occupations can be particularly problematic, as it exposes men to significant risks for injuries and fatalities. To encourage multi-disciplinary collaborations and advance knowledge in the intersecting areas of gender studies, men’s health, work and workplace health and safety, a national network of...

A metasynthesis of risk perception in women with high risk pregnancies

OpenAIRE

Lee, S.; Ayers, S.; Holden, D.

2014-01-01

Introduction: Risk perception in women with high risk pregnancies affects their decisions about perinatal care and is of interest to anyone involved in the care of pregnant women. This paper provides a metasynthesis of qualitative studies of risk perception in women with high risk pregnancies.\\ud \\ud Methods: A systematic search of eight electronic databases was conducted. Additional papers were obtained through searching references of identified articles. Six studies were identified that rep...

Socio-ecological risk factors for prime-age adult death in two coastal areas of Vietnam.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Deok Ryun Kim

Full Text Available Hierarchical spatial models enable the geographic and ecological analysis of health data thereby providing useful information for designing effective health interventions. In this study, we used a Bayesian hierarchical spatial model to evaluate mortality data in Vietnam. The model enabled identification of socio-ecological risk factors and generation of risk maps to better understand the causes and geographic implications of prime-age (15 to less than 45 years adult death.The study was conducted in two sites: Nha Trang and Hue in Vietnam. The study areas were split into 500×500 meter cells to define neighborhoods. We first extracted socio-demographic data from population databases of the two sites, and then aggregated the data by neighborhood. We used spatial hierarchical model that borrows strength from neighbors for evaluating risk factors and for creating spatially smoothed risk map after adjusting for neighborhood level covariates. The Markov chain Monte Carlo procedure was used to estimate the parameters. Male mortality was more than twice the female mortality. The rates also varied by age and sex. The most frequent cause of mortality was traffic accidents and drowning for men and traffic accidents and suicide for women. Lower education of household heads in the neighborhood was an important risk factor for increased mortality. The mortality was highly variable in space and the socio-ecological risk factors are sensitive to study site and sex.Our study suggests that lower education of the household head is an important predictor for prime age adult mortality. Variability in socio-ecological risk factors and in risk areas by sex make it challenging to design appropriate intervention strategies aimed at decreasing prime-age adult deaths in Vietnam.

An assessment of high risk sexual behaviour and HIV transmission among migrant oil workers in the Niger Delta area of Nigeria.

Science.gov (United States)

Nwauche, C A; Akani, C I

2006-06-01

A cross--sectional behavioural survey undertaken amongst migrant oil-workers of an oil exploration outfit operating in the Niger-Delta of Nigeria with the aim of assessing the interplay of migrancy, high-risk sexual behaviour and HIV transmission. A total of 300 randomly selected migrant oil workers were assessed using structured questionnaires to evaluate key high - risk sexual behavioral parameters such as multiplicity of sexual partners, bisexuality (closet homosexuality), high grade sexual behaviour and lesbianism. Sampling period was two months with a control cohort of 200. The prevalence of high risk sexual behaviour (HRSB) amongst the migrant oil workers was found to be 7.7% while low-risk sexual behaviour (LRSB) was 92.3%. There was no record of HRSB in the control group. We did not also encounter any lesbian sexual orientation in this study. The distribution of HRSB amongst the migrant oil workers showed that the commonest variety was bisexuality (closet homosexuality) with 10(43.5%) followed by high-risk sexual behaviour 7(30.4%), while the least common was multiplicity of sexual partners with 6 (26.1%). Furthermore, majority of these individuals 19 (82.6%) were above the age of 35 years. The index of condom-use and acceptance was high. Here 14 (60.9%) found condom-use convenient while 13 (56.5%) regularly used the condom. This study confirms the existence of HRSB among migrant oil workers in the Niger delta. It is therefore advisable to focus interventionist and prevention programmes on this group which appear to be pivotal in the transmission and spread of HIV/AIDS in this environment.

Evaluating perspectives for PRRS virus elimination from pig dense areas with a risk factor based herd index.

Science.gov (United States)

Fahrion, A S; Beilage, E grosse; Nathues, H; Dürr, S; Doherr, M G

2014-06-01

Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) is wide-spread in pig populations globally. In many regions of Europe with intensive pig production and high herd densities, the virus is endemic and can cause disease and production losses. This fuels discussion about the feasibility and sustainability of virus elimination from larger geographic regions. The implementation of a program aiming at virus elimination for areas with high pig density is unprecedented and its potential success is unknown. The objective of this work was to approach pig population data with a simple method that could support assessing the feasibility of a sustainable regional PRRSV elimination. Based on known risk factors such as pig herd structure and neighborhood conditions, an index characterizing individual herds' potential for endemic virus circulation and reinfection was designed. This index was subsequently used to compare data of all pig herds in two regions with different pig- and herd-densities in Lower Saxony (North-West Germany) where PRRSV is endemic. Distribution of the indexed herds was displayed using GIS. Clusters of high herd index densities forming potential risk hot spots were identified which could represent key target areas for surveillance and biosecurity measures under a control program aimed at virus elimination. In an additional step, for the study region with the higher pig density (2463 pigs/km(2) farmland), the potential distribution of PRRSV-free and non-free herds during the implementation of a national control program aiming at national virus elimination was modeled. Complex herd and trade network structures suggest that PRRSV elimination in regions with intensive pig farming like that of middle Europe would have to involve legal regulation and be accompanied by important trade and animal movement restrictions. The proposed methodology of risk index mapping could be adapted to areas varying in size, herd structure and density. Interpreted in the

A risk score to predict type 2 diabetes mellitus in an elderly Spanish Mediterranean population at high cardiovascular risk.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marta Guasch-Ferré

Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: To develop and test a diabetes risk score to predict incident diabetes in an elderly Spanish Mediterranean population at high cardiovascular risk. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A diabetes risk score was derived from a subset of 1381 nondiabetic individuals from three centres of the PREDIMED study (derivation sample. Multivariate Cox regression model ß-coefficients were used to weigh each risk factor. PREDIMED-personal Score included body-mass-index, smoking status, family history of type 2 diabetes, alcohol consumption and hypertension as categorical variables; PREDIMED-clinical Score included also high blood glucose. We tested the predictive capability of these scores in the DE-PLAN-CAT cohort (validation sample. The discrimination of Finnish Diabetes Risk Score (FINDRISC, German Diabetes Risk Score (GDRS and our scores was assessed with the area under curve (AUC. RESULTS: The PREDIMED-clinical Score varied from 0 to 14 points. In the subset of the PREDIMED study, 155 individuals developed diabetes during the 4.75-years follow-up. The PREDIMED-clinical score at a cutoff of ≥6 had sensitivity of 72.2%, and specificity of 72.5%, whereas AUC was 0.78. The AUC of the PREDIMED-clinical Score was 0.66 in the validation sample (sensitivity = 85.4%; specificity = 26.6%, and was significantly higher than the FINDRISC and the GDRS in both the derivation and validation samples. DISCUSSION: We identified classical risk factors for diabetes and developed the PREDIMED-clinical Score to determine those individuals at high risk of developing diabetes in elderly individuals at high cardiovascular risk. The predictive capability of the PREDIMED-clinical Score was significantly higher than the FINDRISC and GDRS, and also used fewer items in the questionnaire.

Decision Model on Financing a Project Using Knowledge about Risk Areas

OpenAIRE

Ioana POPOVICI; Emil SCARLAT; Francesco RIZZO

2011-01-01

The research presents an alternative to the classical method of measuring financial risk in funding a project. The goal of the model described in the paper implies identifying "risky areas" within the financial balance of the project. The model analysis the financial risk behavior studied along four scenarios by varying only the cost of financing source used according to the specific type of funding. The model introduces the time factor into the analysis of financial risk due to the specific ...

Probabilistic risk assessment for the Sandia National Laboratories Technical Area V Liquid Waste Disposal System surface impoundments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dawson, L.A.; Eidson, A.F.

1996-01-01

A probabilistic risk assessment was completed for a former radioactive waste disposal site. The site, two unlined surface impoundment, was designed as part of the Liquid Waste Disposal System (LWDS) to receive radioactive effluent from nuclear reactors in Technical Area-V (TA-V) at Sandia National Laboratories/New Mexico (SNL/NM). First, a statistical comparison of site sampling results to natural background, using EPA methods, and a spatial distribution analysis were performed. Risk assessment was conducted with SNL/NM's Probabilistic Risk Evaluation and Characterization Investigation System model. The risk assessment indicated that contamination from several constituents might have been high enough to require remediation. However, further analysis based on expected site closure activities and recent EPA guidance indicated that No Further Action was acceptable

Health benefits of 'grow your own' food in urban areas: implications for contaminated land risk assessment and risk management?

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

2009-12-21

Abstract Compelling evidence of major health benefits of fruit and vegetable consumption, physical activity, and outdoor interaction with \\'greenspace\\' have emerged in the past decade - all of which combine to give major potential health benefits from \\'grow-your-own\\' (GYO) in urban areas. However, neither current risk assessment models nor risk management strategies for GYO in allotments and gardens give any consideration to these health benefits, despite their potential often to more than fully compensate the risks. Although urban environments are more contaminated by heavy metals, arsenic, polyaromatic hydrocarbons and dioxins than most rural agricultural areas, evidence is lacking for adverse health outcomes of GYO in UK urban areas. Rarely do pollutants in GYO food exceed statutory limits set for commercial food, and few people obtain the majority of their food from GYO. In the UK, soil contamination thresholds triggering closure or remediation of allotment and garden sites are based on precautionary principles, generating \\'scares\\' that may negatively impact public health disproportionately to the actual health risks of exposure to toxins through own-grown food. By contrast, the health benefits of GYO are a direct counterpoint to the escalating public health crisis of \\'obesity and sloth\\' caused by eating an excess of saturated fats, inadequate consumption of fresh fruit and vegetables combined with a lack of exercise. These are now amongst the most important preventable causes of illness and death. The health and wider societal benefits of \\'grow-your-own\\' thus reveal a major limitation in current risk assessment methodologies which, in only considering risks, are unable to predict whether GYO on particular sites will, overall, have positive, negative, or no net effects on human health. This highlights a more general need for a new generation of risk assessment tools that also predict overall consequences for health to more effectively guide

Health benefits of 'grow your own' food in urban areas: implications for contaminated land risk assessment and risk management?

Science.gov (United States)

Leake, Jonathan R; Adam-Bradford, Andrew; Rigby, Janette E

2009-12-21

Compelling evidence of major health benefits of fruit and vegetable consumption, physical activity, and outdoor interaction with 'greenspace' have emerged in the past decade - all of which combine to give major potential health benefits from 'grow-your-own' (GYO) in urban areas. However, neither current risk assessment models nor risk management strategies for GYO in allotments and gardens give any consideration to these health benefits, despite their potential often to more than fully compensate the risks. Although urban environments are more contaminated by heavy metals, arsenic, polyaromatic hydrocarbons and dioxins than most rural agricultural areas, evidence is lacking for adverse health outcomes of GYO in UK urban areas. Rarely do pollutants in GYO food exceed statutory limits set for commercial food, and few people obtain the majority of their food from GYO. In the UK, soil contamination thresholds triggering closure or remediation of allotment and garden sites are based on precautionary principles, generating 'scares' that may negatively impact public health disproportionately to the actual health risks of exposure to toxins through own-grown food. By contrast, the health benefits of GYO are a direct counterpoint to the escalating public health crisis of 'obesity and sloth' caused by eating an excess of saturated fats, inadequate consumption of fresh fruit and vegetables combined with a lack of exercise. These are now amongst the most important preventable causes of illness and death. The health and wider societal benefits of 'grow-your-own' thus reveal a major limitation in current risk assessment methodologies which, in only considering risks, are unable to predict whether GYO on particular sites will, overall, have positive, negative, or no net effects on human health. This highlights a more general need for a new generation of risk assessment tools that also predict overall consequences for health to more effectively guide risk management in our

The genesis of breast cancer is a two-step phenomenon. II. Dissociation of two biomarkers in cancer patients from a low risk area of Japan.

Science.gov (United States)

Kodama, M; Kodama, T; Murakami, M; Kobayashi, S; Akita, T; Nakamura, Y

1992-01-01

The association of dual steroidal disorders with breast cancer, as proposed on the basis of a case-control study in a high risk area of Japan, was tested for its validity in breast cancer patients from a low risk area of Japan. A state of glucocorticoid excess, the first hormonal trait of a breast cancer patient, was assessed using a urinary steroid parameter (a reduction of the androsterone to tetrahydrocortisol ratio by definition), and/or using a physical parameter (an elevation of the waist to hip circumference ratio by definition). Inclination to ovulation failure, the second hormonal trait, was tested using another urinary steroid parameter (a specified disorder of progestin metabolism by definition), and/or a demographic parameter (a reduction in the number of live births by definition). Results obtained are as follows: 1) premenopausal breast cancer patients from a low risk area were found to have the second trait but not the first trait, as tested using 2 parameters for each trait. 2) Postmenopausal cancer patients from a low risk area as well as pre- and post-menopausal cancer patients from a high risk area had both the 2 hormonal traits. 3) There was no discrepancy of results between any 2 test systems with the identification of 2 hormonal traits in 4 cancer patient groups. The significance of the dissociation of 2 hormonal traits, as observed in premenopausal cancer patients from a low risk area, is discussed in favor of the two-step carcinogenesis theory. Possible interaction of heredity and environment in the genesis of breast cancer is also taken into consideration.

Introduction of high risk pregnancy care in rural Cameroon: health service research approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Leke, R J; Nasah, B T; Mtango, F D

1988-05-01

A 3-year study (1982-1985) in Cameroon showed that high-risk pregnancy identification and care could successfully be introduced in rural communities through inexpensive training and supervision of local nurses, particularly when motivation for use of antenatal clinics (ANCs) was provided by the local Community Women's Organization (CWO). 11 communities, all rural except Tsinga, were randomly allocated to Groups I (control) or II. A retrospective baseline survey of ANCs showed that high-risk pregnancy detection had been nonexistent. For both groups, nurses were given 2-week training courses on high-risk identification and family planning. The registers for recording prenatal consultations and deliveries were modified to include recording of risk factors. Special forms were created for reporting on each high-risk case thus identified. These forms proved more difficult for the nurses to complete than the registers. For Group II communities, CWO leaders were recruited to urge women to attend ANCs. 2548 cases of high-risk pregnancy (21.9% of pregnancies) were identified on the special forms, although the number of cases identified in clinic registers was consistently higher. Posttest attendance at ANCs was higher than pretest and significantly higher in areas where CWO motivation had been used. Major risk factors in the identified cases were grand multiparity, teenage pregnancy and previous complicated obstetrics history, although semiurban Tsinga had less grand multiparity and teenage pregnancy and more obesity, diabetes, hypertension and preclampsia. Only 23.4% of the identified cases delivered in the clinics, showing the need for more comprehensive maternal service programs. Since only 5% of the high-risk pregnancy population accepted modern contraceptives after delivery, research is needed on the determinants.

Uncertainty Analysis of A Flood Risk Mapping Procedure Applied In Urban Areas

Science.gov (United States)

Krause, J.; Uhrich, S.; Bormann, H.; Diekkrüger, B.

In the framework of IRMA-Sponge program the presented study was part of the joint research project FRHYMAP (flood risk and hydrological mapping). A simple con- ceptual flooding model (FLOODMAP) has been developed to simulate flooded areas besides rivers within cities. FLOODMAP requires a minimum of input data (digital el- evation model (DEM), river line, water level plain) and parameters and calculates the flood extent as well as the spatial distribution of flood depths. of course the simulated model results are affected by errors and uncertainties. Possible sources of uncertain- ties are the model structure, model parameters and input data. Thus after the model validation (comparison of simulated water to observed extent, taken from airborne pictures) the uncertainty of the essential input data set (digital elevation model) was analysed. Monte Carlo simulations were performed to assess the effect of uncertain- ties concerning the statistics of DEM quality and to derive flooding probabilities from the set of simulations. The questions concerning a minimum resolution of a DEM re- quired for flood simulation and concerning the best aggregation procedure of a given DEM was answered by comparing the results obtained using all available standard GIS aggregation procedures. Seven different aggregation procedures were applied to high resolution DEMs (1-2m) in three cities (Bonn, Cologne, Luxembourg). Basing on this analysis the effect of 'uncertain' DEM data was estimated and compared with other sources of uncertainties. Especially socio-economic information and monetary transfer functions required for a damage risk analysis show a high uncertainty. There- fore this study helps to analyse the weak points of the flood risk and damage risk assessment procedure.

Serial assessment of the area at risk in myocardial infarction with Gd-DTPA-enhanced MR imaging in humans

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

de Roos, A.; Doornbos, J.; Matheijssen, N.; van Dijkman, P.; van der Wall, E.; van Voorthuisen, A.E.

1989-01-01

Experimental studies have shown that the region of increased myocardial signal intensity with Gd-DTPA correlates with the area at risk but overestimates the infarct size. The authors have assessed the evolution of the area at risk in acute myocardial infarction in seven patients, using Gd-DTPA enhanced MR imaging at 1 and 2 weeks after the acute event. Multisection MR imaging of the total left ventricle was performed at 0.5 T after injection of 0.2 mmol/kg of Gd-DTPA. The area with a signal intensity greater than that of normal myocardium (± 2SDs) was designated as the area at risk in each section. The summation of these areas was measured by two observers at 1 and 2 weeks after infarction; intra- and interobserver variability was 3%. The area at risk ranged from 3% to 18%; at 2 weeks the size of the area at risk showed only slight changes (P = not significant). The authors discuss how Gd- DTPA enhances the area at risk and may be useful in assessing the evolution of the size of this area

Social deprivation and population density are not associated with small area risk of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.

Science.gov (United States)

Rooney, James P K; Tobin, Katy; Crampsie, Arlene; Vajda, Alice; Heverin, Mark; McLaughlin, Russell; Staines, Anthony; Hardiman, Orla

2015-10-01

Evidence of an association between areal ALS risk and population density has been previously reported. We aim to examine ALS spatial incidence in Ireland using small areas, to compare this analysis with our previous analysis of larger areas and to examine the associations between population density, social deprivation and ALS incidence. Residential area social deprivation has not been previously investigated as a risk factor for ALS. Using the Irish ALS register, we included all cases of ALS diagnosed in Ireland from 1995-2013. 2006 census data was used to calculate age and sex standardised expected cases per small area. Social deprivation was assessed using the pobalHP deprivation index. Bayesian smoothing was used to calculate small area relative risk for ALS, whilst cluster analysis was performed using SaTScan. The effects of population density and social deprivation were tested in two ways: (1) as covariates in the Bayesian spatial model; (2) via post-Bayesian regression. 1701 cases were included. Bayesian smoothed maps of relative risk at small area resolution matched closely to our previous analysis at a larger area resolution. Cluster analysis identified two areas of significant low risk. These areas did not correlate with population density or social deprivation indices. Two areas showing low frequency of ALS have been identified in the Republic of Ireland. These areas do not correlate with population density or residential area social deprivation, indicating that other reasons, such as genetic admixture may account for the observed findings. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Resuscitation of newborn in high risk deliveries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yousaf, U.F.; Hayat, S.

2015-01-01

High risk deliveries are usually associated with increased neonatal mortality and morbidity. Neonatal resuscitation can appreciably affect the outcome in these types of deliveries. Presence of personnel trained in basic neonatal resuscitation at the time of delivery can play an important role in reducing perinatal complications in neonates at risk. The study was carried out to evaluate the effects of newborn resuscitation on neonatal outcome in high risk deliveries. Methods: This descriptive case series was carried out at the Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Jinnah Hospital, Lahore. Ninety consecutive high risk deliveries were included and attended by paediatricians trained in newborn resuscitation. Babies delivered by elective Caesarean section, normal spontaneous vaginal deliveries and still births were excluded. Neonatal resuscitation was performed in babies who failed to initiate breathing in the first minute after birth. Data was analyzed using SPSS-16.0. Results: A total of 90 high risk deliveries were included in the study. Emergency caesarean section was the mode of delivery in 94.4% (n=85) cases and spontaneous vaginal delivery in 5.6% (n=5). Preterm pregnancy was the major high risk factor. Newborn resuscitation was required in 37.8% (n=34) of all high risk deliveries (p=0.013). All the new-borns who required resuscitation survived. Conclusion: New-born resuscitation is required in high risk pregnancies and personnel trained in newborn resuscitation should be available at the time of delivery. (author)

Dopaminergic variants in siblings at high risk for autism: Associations with initiating joint attention.

Science.gov (United States)

Gangi, Devon N; Messinger, Daniel S; Martin, Eden R; Cuccaro, Michael L

2016-11-01

Younger siblings of children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD; high-risk siblings) exhibit lower levels of initiating joint attention (IJA; sharing an object or experience with a social partner through gaze and/or gesture) than low-risk siblings of children without ASD. However, high-risk siblings also exhibit substantial variability in this domain. The neurotransmitter dopamine is linked to brain areas associated with reward, motivation, and attention, and common dopaminergic variants have been associated with attention difficulties. We examined whether these common dopaminergic variants, DRD4 and DRD2, explain variability in IJA in high-risk (n = 55) and low-risk (n = 38) siblings. IJA was assessed in the first year during a semi-structured interaction with an examiner. DRD4 and DRD2 genotypes were coded according to associated dopaminergic functioning to create a gene score, with higher scores indicating more genotypes associated with less efficient dopaminergic functioning. Higher dopamine gene scores (indicative of less efficient dopaminergic functioning) were associated with lower levels of IJA in the first year for high-risk siblings, while the opposite pattern emerged in low-risk siblings. Findings suggest differential susceptibility-IJA was differentially associated with dopaminergic functioning depending on familial ASD risk. Understanding genes linked to ASD-relevant behaviors in high-risk siblings will aid in early identification of children at greatest risk for difficulties in these behavioral domains, facilitating targeted prevention and intervention. Autism Res 2016, 9: 1142-1150. © 2016 International Society for Autism Research, Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 International Society for Autism Research, Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Waste area Grouping 2 Phase I task data report: Human health risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Purucker, S.T.; Douthat, D.M.

1996-06-01

This report is one of five reports issued in 1996 that provide follow- up information to the Phase 1 Remedial Investigation (RI) Report for Waste Area Grouping (WAG) 2 at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). The five reports address areas of concern that could cause potential human health risk and ecological risk within WAG2 at ORNL. The purpose of this report is to present a summary of the human health risk assessment results based on the data collected for the WAG 2 Phase 1 RI. Estimates of risk are provided based on measured concentrations in the surface water, floodplain soil, and sediment of White Oak Creek, Melton Branch, and their tributaries. The human health risk assessment methodology used in this risk assessment is based on Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund (RAGS). First, the data for the different media are elevated to determine usability for risk assessment. Second, through the process of selecting chemicals of potential concern (COPCs), contaminants to be considered in the risk assessment are identified for each assessment of exposure potential is performed, and exposure pathways are identified. Subsequently, exposure is estimated quantitatively, and the toxicity of each of the COPCs is determined. The results of these analyses are combined and summarized in a risk characterization

Finding Risk Groups by Optimizing Artificial Neural Networks on the Area under the Survival Curve Using Genetic Algorithms.

Science.gov (United States)

Kalderstam, Jonas; Edén, Patrik; Ohlsson, Mattias

2015-01-01

We investigate a new method to place patients into risk groups in censored survival data. Properties such as median survival time, and end survival rate, are implicitly improved by optimizing the area under the survival curve. Artificial neural networks (ANN) are trained to either maximize or minimize this area using a genetic algorithm, and combined into an ensemble to predict one of low, intermediate, or high risk groups. Estimated patient risk can influence treatment choices, and is important for study stratification. A common approach is to sort the patients according to a prognostic index and then group them along the quartile limits. The Cox proportional hazards model (Cox) is one example of this approach. Another method of doing risk grouping is recursive partitioning (Rpart), which constructs a decision tree where each branch point maximizes the statistical separation between the groups. ANN, Cox, and Rpart are compared on five publicly available data sets with varying properties. Cross-validation, as well as separate test sets, are used to validate the models. Results on the test sets show comparable performance, except for the smallest data set where Rpart's predicted risk groups turn out to be inverted, an example of crossing survival curves. Cross-validation shows that all three models exhibit crossing of some survival curves on this small data set but that the ANN model manages the best separation of groups in terms of median survival time before such crossings. The conclusion is that optimizing the area under the survival curve is a viable approach to identify risk groups. Training ANNs to optimize this area combines two key strengths from both prognostic indices and Rpart. First, a desired minimum group size can be specified, as for a prognostic index. Second, the ability to utilize non-linear effects among the covariates, which Rpart is also able to do.

Evaluation of Environmental Risks in the Use of Insecticide in Hashtgerd Area using EIQ

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

seyae jala yadollahi Nooshabadi

2018-02-01

Full Text Available Introduction Recently, there is an increasing concern about the effects of pesticides on non-target organisms. Residual of pesticides cause environmental pollution and put in danger the human health. The problem is always in contact with pesticides, there are numerous risks related to the environmental and human health threat at different levels of their cycle, including production, sale, use in the field and ultimately for residue in food occurs. This study consider the harmful effects of pesticides in Hashtgerd study area and their potential and environmental risks using EIQ index. Environmental Impact Quotient (EIQ is a model based on algebraic equations which by it can be classification chemical pesticides based on environmental hazards and risks to human health and toxins that cause minimal risk are selected. The ultimate purpose of this study was to determine 5 insecticide have been the highest consumption in the region Hashtgerd and then determine the potential environmental risks of them by EIQ index, so that eventually we can identify and eliminate hazardous insecticides. Materials and Methods Hashtgerd study area is one of 609 countries study area that is located in the Alborz province. This area with an extent of about 1170 square km because of the proximity to the metropolis of Tehran and focus a large number of agricultural, industrial and service units has an important economic and political position. The numerical value of the EIQ is average of the three main components include of the potential damage to the health of farm workers, the potential damage to consumers through the direct effect of toxic residues in food products or through ground water contamination and potential negative effects on the environment, including aquatic and terrestrial organisms show. The describes components of the EIQ are contains 11 variables. All input data for the impact of low, medium and high are judged to be harmful than, the one, three or five

Are we safe? A tool to improve the knowledge of the risk areas: high-resolution floods database (MEDIFLOOD) for Spanish Mediterranean coast (1960 -2014)

Science.gov (United States)

Gil-Guirado, Salvador; Perez-Morales, Alfredo; Lopez-Martinez, Francisco; Barriendos-Vallve, Mariano

2016-04-01

The Mediterranean coast of the Iberian Peninsula concentrates an important part of the population and economic activities in Spain. Intensive agriculture, industry in the major urban centers, trade and tourism make this region the main center of economic dynamism and one of the highest rates of population and economic growth of southern Europe. This process accelerated after Franco regime started to be more open to the outside in the early sixties of the last century. The main responsible factor for this process is the climate because of warmer temperatures and a large number of sunny days, which has become in the economic slogan of the area. However, this growth process has happened without proper planning to reduce the impact of other climatic feature of the area, floods. Floods are the natural hazard that generates greater impacts in the area.One of the factors that facilitate the lack of strategic planning is the absence of a correct chronology of flood episodes. In this situation, land use plans, are based on inadequate chronologies that do not report the real risk of the population of this area. To reduce this deficit and contribute to a more efficient zoning of the Mediterranean coast according to their floods risk, we have prepared a high-resolution floods database (MEDIFLOOD) for all the municipalities of the Spanish Mediterranean coast since 1960 until 2013. The methodology consists on exploring the newspaper archives of all newspapers with a presence in the area. The searches have been made by typing the name of each of the 180 municipalities of the Spanish coast followed by 5 key terms. Each identified flood has been classified by dates and according to their level of intensity and type of damage. Additionally, we have consulted the specific bibliography to rule out any data gaps. The results are surprising and worrying. We have identified more than 3,600 cases where a municipality has been affected by floods. These cases are grouped into more than 700

Effect of Area-Level Socioeconomic Deprivation on Risk of Cognitive Dysfunction in Older Adults.

Science.gov (United States)

McCann, Adrian; McNulty, Helene; Rigby, Jan; Hughes, Catherine F; Hoey, Leane; Molloy, Anne M; Cunningham, Conal J; Casey, Miriam C; Tracey, Fergal; O'Kane, Maurice J; McCarroll, Kevin; Ward, Mary; Moore, Katie; Strain, J J; Moore, Adrian

2018-02-12

To investigate the relationship between area-level deprivation and risk of cognitive dysfunction. Cross-sectional analysis. The Trinity, Ulster, and Department of Agriculture (TUDA) study from 2008 to 2012. Community-dwelling adults aged 74.0 ± 8.3 without dementia (N = 5,186; 67% female). Adopting a cross-jurisdictional approach, geo-referenced address-based information was used to map and link participants to official socioeconomic indicators of deprivation within the United Kingdom and the Republic of Ireland. Participants were assigned an individual deprivation score related to the smallest administrative area in which they lived. These scores were categorized into comparable quintiles, that were then used to integrate the datasets from both countries. Cognitive health was assessed using the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE); cognitive dysfunction was defined as a MMSE score of 24 or less. Approximately one-quarter of the cohort resided within the most-deprived districts in both countries. Greater area-level deprivation was associated with significantly lower MMSE scores; fewer years of formal education; greater anxiety, depression, smoking and alcohol use, and obesity; and more adverse outcomes, including higher blood pressure and diabetes risk. After adjustment for relevant covariates, area deprivation was associated with significantly higher risk of cognitive dysfunction (odds ratio =1.40, 95% confidence interval = 1.05-1.87, P = .02, for most vs least deprived). This analysis combining data from two health systems shows that area deprivation is an independent risk factor for cognitive dysfunction in older adults. Adults living in areas of greatest socioeconomic deprivation may benefit from targeted strategies aimed at improving modifiable risk factors for dementia. Further cross-national analysis investigating the impact of area-level deprivation is needed to address socioeconomic disparities and shape future policy to improve health outcomes in older

Risk levels of invasive Fusarium oxysporum f. sp. in areas suitable for date palm (Phoenix dactylifera) cultivation under various climate change projections.

Science.gov (United States)

Shabani, Farzin; Kumar, Lalit

2013-01-01

Global climate model outputs involve uncertainties in prediction, which could be reduced by identifying agreements between the output results of different models, covering all assumptions included in each. Fusarium oxysporum f.sp. is an invasive pathogen that poses risk to date palm cultivation, among other crops. Therefore, in this study, the future distribution of invasive Fusarium oxysporum f.sp., confirmed by CSIRO-Mk3.0 (CS) and MIROC-H (MR) GCMs, was modeled and combined with the future distribution of date palm predicted by the same GCMs, to identify areas suitable for date palm cultivation with different risk levels of invasive Fusarium oxysporum f.sp., for 2030, 2050, 2070 and 2100. Results showed that 40%, 37%, 33% and 28% areas projected to become highly conducive to date palm are under high risk of its lethal fungus, compared with 37%, 39%, 43% and 42% under low risk, for the chosen years respectively. Our study also indicates that areas with marginal risk will be limited to 231, 212, 186 and 172 million hectares by 2030, 2050, 2070 and 2100. The study further demonstrates that CLIMEX outputs refined by a combination of different GCMs results of different species that have symbiosis or parasite relationship, ensure that the predictions become robust, rather than producing hypothetical findings, limited purely to publication.

Risk Levels of Invasive Fusarium oxysporum f. sp. in Areas Suitable for Date Palm (Phoenix dactylifera) Cultivation under Various Climate Change Projections

Science.gov (United States)

Shabani, Farzin; Kumar, Lalit

2013-01-01

Global climate model outputs involve uncertainties in prediction, which could be reduced by identifying agreements between the output results of different models, covering all assumptions included in each. Fusarium oxysporum f.sp. is an invasive pathogen that poses risk to date palm cultivation, among other crops. Therefore, in this study, the future distribution of invasive Fusarium oxysporum f.sp., confirmed by CSIRO-Mk3.0 (CS) and MIROC-H (MR) GCMs, was modeled and combined with the future distribution of date palm predicted by the same GCMs, to identify areas suitable for date palm cultivation with different risk levels of invasive Fusarium oxysporum f.sp., for 2030, 2050, 2070 and 2100. Results showed that 40%, 37%, 33% and 28% areas projected to become highly conducive to date palm are under high risk of its lethal fungus, compared with 37%, 39%, 43% and 42% under low risk, for the chosen years respectively. Our study also indicates that areas with marginal risk will be limited to 231, 212, 186 and 172 million hectares by 2030, 2050, 2070 and 2100. The study further demonstrates that CLIMEX outputs refined by a combination of different GCMs results of different species that have symbiosis or parasite relationship, ensure that the predictions become robust, rather than producing hypothetical findings, limited purely to publication. PMID:24340100

Early Gadolinium Enhancement for Determination of Area at Risk

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hammer-Hansen, Sophia; Leung, Steve W; Hsu, Li-Yueh

2017-01-01

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to determine whether early gadolinium enhancement (EGE) by cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) in a canine model of reperfused myocardial infarction depicts the area at risk (AAR) as determined by microsphere blood flow analysis. BACKGROUND: It remains controver......OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to determine whether early gadolinium enhancement (EGE) by cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) in a canine model of reperfused myocardial infarction depicts the area at risk (AAR) as determined by microsphere blood flow analysis. BACKGROUND: It remains...... requires pathological validation. METHODS: Eleven dogs underwent 2 h of coronary artery occlusion and 48 h of reperfusion before imaging at 1.5-T. EGE imaging was performed 3 min after contrast administration with coverage of the entire left ventricle. Late gadolinium enhancement imaging was performed...... on native T1 and T2 maps. The size of EGE was significantly greater than the infarct by triphenyltetrazolium chloride (44.1 ± 15.8% vs. 20.7 ± 14.4%; p gadolinium enhancement (44.1 ± 15.8% vs. 23.5 ± 12.7%; p

Clinical characteristics of high plasma adiponectin and high plasma leptin as risk factors for arterial stiffness and related end-organ damage.

Science.gov (United States)

Kohara, Katsuhiko; Ochi, Masayuki; Okada, Yoko; Yamashita, Taiji; Ohara, Maya; Kato, Takeaki; Nagai, Tokihisa; Tabara, Yasuharu; Igase, Michiya; Miki, Tetsuro

2014-08-01

The relationship between plasma levels of adiponectin and cardiovascular events is inconclusive. We evaluated the clinical characteristics of people with high plasma adiponectin and high plasma leptin levels. Thousand seven hundred participants recruited from visitors to the Anti-Aging Doc were divided into four groups by combining the bipartiles of plasma adiponectin and leptin levels in men and women separately: AL, high adiponectin and high leptin; Al, high adiponectin and low leptin; al, low adiponectin and low leptin; aL, low adiponectin and high leptin. Body composition, including visceral fat area and thigh muscle cross-sectional area (CSA), brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity (baPWV), periventricular hyperintensity, and urinary albumin excretion, were determined. Twenty percent of the studied population fell within the AL group. This group had a significantly higher visceral fat area than the Al group. Thigh muscle CSA was lowest in the AL group among groups. baPWV, brain white matter lesions, and albuminuria findings in the AL group were significantly higher than those of the Al group. Multiple and logistic regression analyses with confounding parameters further confirmed that plasma adiponectin was not an independent determinant for brain and renal small vessel-related disease. These findings suggest that the plasma level of adiponectin alone is not enough for the risk stratification of cardiovascular disease. Leptin resistance associated with skeletal muscle loss in addition to obesity may need to be addressed to identify high risk people with high plasma adiponectin levels. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

A climate risk assessment of clean water supply in an urban area: A case study of South Tangerang city, Indonesia

Science.gov (United States)

Nastiti, S. I. W.; Kusnoputranto, H.; Boer, R.; Utomo, S. W.

2018-03-01

The demand for clean water in South Tangerang, Indonesia, is very high. At present, this demand is mostly met by groundwater that is much influenced by climate variability, land cover change, and human activities. The local company on water services (PDAM) provides clean water services for only about 9% of the population. The climate risk assessment conducted by South Tangerang Government in 2016 indicates that several areas are potentially exposed to a high risk of climate change. Survey and in-depth interview with communities and sectoral officers suggest that a risk to clean water supply in this city is increasing. This study aims to assess climate potential risks on clean water supply based on the 2016 study. We adopted the method of that study by modifying some of the vulnerability indicators that can represent clean water access and supply. The results of the study demonstrate that many wards in South Tangerang would be exposed to high climate risks of clean water supply. By 2021, about 54% of wards would be exposed from high to the very very high risk of clean water supply. These results signify the tangible need of adaptation actions, to prevent the worsening impacts of climate on clean water supply.

Disaster risk management in prospect mining area Blitar district, East Java, using microtremor analysis and ANP (analytical network processing) approach

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Parwatiningtyas, Diyan, E-mail: diane.tyas@gmail.com, E-mail: erlinunindra@gmail.com; Ambarsari, Erlin Windia, E-mail: diane.tyas@gmail.com, E-mail: erlinunindra@gmail.com; Marlina, Dwi, E-mail: diane.tyas@gmail.com, E-mail: erlinunindra@gmail.com; Wiratomo, Yogi, E-mail: diane.tyas@gmail.com, E-mail: erlinunindra@gmail.com [Department of Physics, Faculty of Engineering, Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Indraprasta PGRI University, Nangka Street No. 58C Tanjung Barat, South Jakarta (Indonesia)

2014-03-24

Indonesia has a wealth of natural assets is so large to be managed and utilized, either from its own local government and local communities, especially in the mining sector. However, mining activities can change the state of the surface layer of the earth that have a high impact disaster risk. This could threaten the safety and disrupt human life, environmental damage, loss of property, and the psychological impact, sulking to the rule of law no 24 of 2007. That's why we strive to manage and minimize the risk of mine disasters in the region, how to use the method of calculation of Amplification Factor (AF) from the analysis based microtremor sulking Kanai and Nakamura, and decision systems were tested by analysis of ANP. Based on the amplification factor and Analytical Network Processing (ANP) obtained, some points showed instability in the surface layer of a mining area include the site of the TP-7, TP-8, TP-9, TP-10, (Birowo2). If in terms of structure, location indicated unstable due to have a sloping surface layer, resulting in the occurrence of landslides and earthquake risk is high. In the meantime, other areas of the mine site can be said to be a stable area.

Disaster risk management in prospect mining area Blitar district, East Java, using microtremor analysis and ANP (analytical network processing) approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Parwatiningtyas, Diyan; Ambarsari, Erlin Windia; Marlina, Dwi; Wiratomo, Yogi

2014-01-01

Indonesia has a wealth of natural assets is so large to be managed and utilized, either from its own local government and local communities, especially in the mining sector. However, mining activities can change the state of the surface layer of the earth that have a high impact disaster risk. This could threaten the safety and disrupt human life, environmental damage, loss of property, and the psychological impact, sulking to the rule of law no 24 of 2007. That's why we strive to manage and minimize the risk of mine disasters in the region, how to use the method of calculation of Amplification Factor (AF) from the analysis based microtremor sulking Kanai and Nakamura, and decision systems were tested by analysis of ANP. Based on the amplification factor and Analytical Network Processing (ANP) obtained, some points showed instability in the surface layer of a mining area include the site of the TP-7, TP-8, TP-9, TP-10, (Birowo2). If in terms of structure, location indicated unstable due to have a sloping surface layer, resulting in the occurrence of landslides and earthquake risk is high. In the meantime, other areas of the mine site can be said to be a stable area

Urban users of wildland areas as forest fire risks

Science.gov (United States)

William S. Folkman

1979-01-01

A telephone survey of 1500 households in metropolitan Los Angeles and San Francisco was made to (1) determine extent of wildland use by residents of the two metropolitan areas, reasons for non-use, and the characteristics of users; (2) describe and analyze activities, knowledge, and attitudes of users which may contribute to their fire risk; and (3) assess selected...

Legionella spp. Risk Assessment in Recreational and Garden Areas of Hotels

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Antonios Papadakis

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Several Travel-associated Legionnaires’ disease (TALD cases occur annually in Europe. Except from the most obvious sites (cooling towers and hot water systems, infections can also be associated with recreational, water feature, and garden areas of hotels. This argument is of great interest to better comprehend the colonization and to calculate the risk to human health of these sites. From July 2000–November 2017, the public health authorities of the Island of Crete (Greece inspected 119 hotels associated with TALD, as reported through the European Legionnaires’ Disease Surveillance Network. Five hundred and eighteen samples were collected from decorative fountain ponds, showers near pools and spas, swimming pools, spa pools, garden sprinklers, drip irrigation systems (reclaimed water and soil. Of those, 67 (12.93%, originating from 43 (35.83% hotels, tested positive for Legionella (Legionella pneumophila serogroups 1, 2, 3, 6, 7, 8, 13, 14, 15 and non-pneumophila species (L. anisa, L. erythra, L. taurinensis, L. birminghamensis, L. rubrilucens. A Relative Risk (R.R. > 1 (p < 0.0001 was calculated for chlorine concentrations of less than 0.2 mg/L (R.R.: 54.78, star classification (<4 (R.R.: 4.75 and absence of Water Safety Plan implementation (R.R.: 3.96. High risk (≥104 CFU/L was estimated for pool showers (16.42%, garden sprinklers (7.46% and pool water (5.97%.

Legionella spp. Risk Assessment in Recreational and Garden Areas of Hotels.

Science.gov (United States)

Papadakis, Antonios; Chochlakis, Dimosthenis; Sandalakis, Vassilios; Keramarou, Maria; Tselentis, Yannis; Psaroulaki, Anna

2018-03-26

Several Travel-associated Legionnaires' disease (TALD) cases occur annually in Europe. Except from the most obvious sites (cooling towers and hot water systems), infections can also be associated with recreational, water feature, and garden areas of hotels. This argument is of great interest to better comprehend the colonization and to calculate the risk to human health of these sites. From July 2000-November 2017, the public health authorities of the Island of Crete (Greece) inspected 119 hotels associated with TALD, as reported through the European Legionnaires' Disease Surveillance Network. Five hundred and eighteen samples were collected from decorative fountain ponds, showers near pools and spas, swimming pools, spa pools, garden sprinklers, drip irrigation systems (reclaimed water) and soil. Of those, 67 (12.93%), originating from 43 (35.83%) hotels, tested positive for Legionella ( Legionella pneumophila serogroups 1, 2, 3, 6, 7, 8, 13, 14, 15 and non-pneumophila species ( L. anisa , L. erythra , L. taurinensis , L. birminghamensis , L. rubrilucens ). A Relative Risk (R.R.) > 1 ( p < 0.0001) was calculated for chlorine concentrations of less than 0.2 mg/L (R.R.: 54.78), star classification (<4) (R.R.: 4.75) and absence of Water Safety Plan implementation (R.R.: 3.96). High risk (≥10⁴ CFU/L) was estimated for pool showers (16.42%), garden sprinklers (7.46%) and pool water (5.97%).

Risk assessment and management of brucellosis in the southern greater Yellowstone area (I): A citizen-science based risk model for bovine brucellosis transmission from elk to cattle.

Science.gov (United States)

Kauffman, Mandy; Peck, Dannele; Scurlock, Brandon; Logan, Jim; Robinson, Timothy; Cook, Walt; Boroff, Kari; Schumaker, Brant

2016-09-15

Livestock producers and state wildlife agencies have used multiple management strategies to control bovine brucellosis in the Greater Yellowstone Area (GYA). However, spillover from elk to domestic bison and cattle herds continues to occur. Although knowledge is increasing about the location and behavior of elk in the SGYA, predicting spatiotemporal overlap between elk and cattle requires locations of livestock operations and observations of elk contact by producers. We queried all producers in a three-county area using a questionnaire designed to determine location of cattle and whether producers saw elk comingle with their animals. This information was used to parameterize a spatially-explicit risk model to estimate the number of elk expected to overlap with cattle during the brucellosis transmission risk period. Elk-cattle overlap was predicted in areas further from roads and forest boundaries in areas with wolf activity, with higher slopes, lower hunter densities, and where the cost-distance to feedgrounds was very low or very high. The model was used to estimate the expected number of years until a cattle reactor will be detected, under alternative management strategies. The model predicted cattle cases every 4.28 years in the highest risk herd unit, a higher prediction than the one case in 26 years we have observed. This difference likely indicates that ongoing management strategies are at least somewhat effective in preventing potential elk-cattle brucellosis transmission in these areas. Using this model, we can infer the expected effectiveness of various management strategies for reducing the risk of brucellosis spillover from elk to cattle. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Large area high-speed metrology SPM system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Klapetek, P; Valtr, M; Martinek, J; Picco, L; Payton, O D; Miles, M; Yacoot, A

2015-01-01

We present a large area high-speed measuring system capable of rapidly generating nanometre resolution scanning probe microscopy data over mm 2 regions. The system combines a slow moving but accurate large area XYZ scanner with a very fast but less accurate small area XY scanner. This arrangement enables very large areas to be scanned by stitching together the small, rapidly acquired, images from the fast XY scanner while simultaneously moving the slow XYZ scanner across the region of interest. In order to successfully merge the image sequences together two software approaches for calibrating the data from the fast scanner are described. The first utilizes the low uncertainty interferometric sensors of the XYZ scanner while the second implements a genetic algorithm with multiple parameter fitting during the data merging step of the image stitching process. The basic uncertainty components related to these high-speed measurements are also discussed. Both techniques are shown to successfully enable high-resolution, large area images to be generated at least an order of magnitude faster than with a conventional atomic force microscope. (paper)

Large area high-speed metrology SPM system

Science.gov (United States)

Klapetek, P.; Valtr, M.; Picco, L.; Payton, O. D.; Martinek, J.; Yacoot, A.; Miles, M.

2015-02-01

We present a large area high-speed measuring system capable of rapidly generating nanometre resolution scanning probe microscopy data over mm2 regions. The system combines a slow moving but accurate large area XYZ scanner with a very fast but less accurate small area XY scanner. This arrangement enables very large areas to be scanned by stitching together the small, rapidly acquired, images from the fast XY scanner while simultaneously moving the slow XYZ scanner across the region of interest. In order to successfully merge the image sequences together two software approaches for calibrating the data from the fast scanner are described. The first utilizes the low uncertainty interferometric sensors of the XYZ scanner while the second implements a genetic algorithm with multiple parameter fitting during the data merging step of the image stitching process. The basic uncertainty components related to these high-speed measurements are also discussed. Both techniques are shown to successfully enable high-resolution, large area images to be generated at least an order of magnitude faster than with a conventional atomic force microscope.

A simple method to identify areas of environmental risk due to manure application.

Science.gov (United States)

Flores, Héctor; Arumí, José Luis; Rivera, Diego; Lagos, L Octavio

2012-06-01

The management of swine manure is becoming an important environmental issue in Chile. One option for the final disposal of manure is to use it as a biofertilizer, but this practice could impact the surrounding environment. To assess the potential environmental impacts of the use of swine manure as a biofertilizer, we propose a method to identify zones of environmental risk through indices. The method considers two processes: nutrient runoff and solute leaching, and uses available information about soils, crops and management practices (irrigation, fertilization, and rotation). We applied the method to qualitatively assess the environmental risk associated with the use of swine manure as a biofertilizer in an 8,000-pig farm located in Central Chile. Results showed that the farm has a moderate environmental risk, but some specific locations have high environmental risks, especially those associated with impacts on areas surrounding water resources. This information could assist the definition of better farm-level management practices, as well as the preservation of riparian vegetation acting as buffer strips. The main advantage of our approach is that it combines qualitative and quantitative information, including particular situations or field features based on expert knowledge. The method is flexible, simple, and can be easily extended or adapted to other processes.

[Using sequential indicator simulation method to define risk areas of soil heavy metals in farmland.

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Hao; Song, Ying Qiang; Hu, Yue Ming; Chen, Fei Xiang; Zhang, Rui

2018-05-01

The heavy metals in soil have serious impacts on safety, ecological environment and human health due to their toxicity and accumulation. It is necessary to efficiently identify the risk area of heavy metals in farmland soil, which is of important significance for environment protection, pollution warning and farmland risk control. We collected 204 samples and analyzed the contents of seven kinds of heavy metals (Cu, Zn, Pb, Cd, Cr, As, Hg) in Zengcheng District of Guangzhou, China. In order to overcame the problems of the data, including the limitation of abnormal values and skewness distribution and the smooth effect with the traditional kriging methods, we used sequential indicator simulation method (SISIM) to define the spatial distribution of heavy metals, and combined Hakanson index method to identify potential ecological risk area of heavy metals in farmland. The results showed that: (1) Based on the similar accuracy of spatial prediction of soil heavy metals, the SISIM had a better expression of detail rebuild than ordinary kriging in small scale area. Compared to indicator kriging, the SISIM had less error rate (4.9%-17.1%) in uncertainty evaluation of heavy-metal risk identification. The SISIM had less smooth effect and was more applicable to simulate the spatial uncertainty assessment of soil heavy metals and risk identification. (2) There was no pollution in Zengcheng's farmland. Moderate potential ecological risk was found in the southern part of study area due to enterprise production, human activities, and river sediments. This study combined the sequential indicator simulation with Hakanson risk index method, and effectively overcame the outlier information loss and smooth effect of traditional kriging method. It provided a new way to identify the soil heavy metal risk area of farmland in uneven sampling.

Fire Risk Assessment: A Systematic Review of the Methodology and Functional Areas

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Parisa Moshashaei

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Fire is a physical and social phenomenon that affects both individuals and the environment. Fire risk assessment is a critical part of a fire prevention program. In this process, the fire risk associated with the possibility of occurrence and severity of damage resulting from the fire is estimated and calculated. In this paper, a classification scheme and a systematic literature review are presented in order to classify and interpret the current researches on fire risk assessment methodologies and applications. Based on the scheme, 93 scholarly papers from 13 journals are categorized into application areas and other categories. The application areas include the papers on the topics of environmental impact, production and industry, transportation, buildings, power industry, oil and gas industry, urban fires and other topics. Scholarly papers are also classified by (1 year of publication, (2 journal of publication, (3 year of publication and application areas and (4 authors’ nationality. The survey results show that the largest number of papers was published during the period 2010-2012 with 31 (33.33%, the most of the studies have been carried out on environmental impact (47.31%, the journal of Forest Ecology and Management had the highest percentage of articles with 26.88%. It is hoped that the paper can meet the needs of researchers for easy references of fire risk assessment methodologies and applications. Therefore, this work would be able to provide useful insights into the anatomy of the fire-risk assessment methods, and suggest academic researchers and experts a framework for future attempts and researches.

Malaria risk factors and care-seeking behaviour within the private sector among high-risk populations in Vietnam: a qualitative study.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Ingrid; Thanh, Huong Ngo Thi; Lover, Andrew; Thao, Phung Thi; Luu, Tang Viet; Thang, Hoang Nghia; Thang, Ngo Duc; Neukom, Josselyn; Bennett, Adam

2017-10-16

Vietnam has successfully reduced malaria incidence by more than 90% over the past 10 years, and is now preparing for malaria elimination. However, the remaining malaria burden resides in individuals that are hardest to reach, in highly remote areas, where many malaria cases are treated through the informal private sector and are not reported to public health systems. This qualitative study aimed to contextualize and characterize the role of private providers, care-seeking behaviour of individuals at high risk of malaria, as well as risk factors that should be addressed through malaria elimination programmes in Vietnam. Semi-structured qualitative interviews were conducted with 11 key informants in Hanoi, 30 providers, 9 potential patients, and 11 individuals at risk of malaria in Binh Phuoc and Kon Tum provinces. Audio recorded interviews were transcribed and uploaded to Atlas TI™, themes were identified, from which programmatic implications and recommendations were synthesized. Qualitative interviews revealed that efforts for malaria elimination in Vietnam should concentrate on reaching highest-risk populations in remote areas as well their care providers, in particular private pharmacies, private clinics, and grocery stores. Among these private providers, diagnosis is currently based on symptoms, leaving unconfirmed cases that are not reported to public health surveillance systems. Among at-risk individuals, knowledge of malaria was limited, and individuals reported not taking full courses of treatment, a practice that threatens selection for drug resistance. Access to insecticide-treated hammock nets, a potentially important preventive measure for settings with outdoor biting Anopheles vectors, was also limited. Malaria elimination efforts in Vietnam can be accelerated by targeting improved treatment, diagnosis, and reporting practices to private pharmacies, private clinics, and grocery stores. Programmes should also seek to increase awareness and

Reduction of travellers' diarrhoea by WC/rBS oral cholera vaccine in young, high-risk travellers.

Science.gov (United States)

Torrell, Josep Ma Ramon; Aumatell, Cristina Masuet; Ramos, Sergi Morchon; Mestre, Laura Gavaldà; Salas, Carme Micheo

2009-06-19

A bidirectional cohort study investigates whether pre-travel vaccination with whole cell/recombinant B subunit inactivated, killed oral cholera vaccine reduces the incidence of diarrhoea in young adult travellers to high-risk areas. Risk of travellers' diarrhoea was assessed according to destination and reason for travel in high-risk travellers of a travel clinic in Barcelona, Spain. Those at high-risk between January and December 2005 were advised on water/food safety and hygiene. High-risk travellers between January and December 2006 were additionally vaccinated with WC/rBS oral cholera vaccine. Data regarding diarrhoea were gathered by structured telephone interview or e-mailed questionnaire following the travellers' return. The incidence of diarrhoea in the group vaccinated with WC/rBS oral cholera vaccine (n=321) was 17.4%, compared with 39.7% in the non-vaccinated group (n=337) (adjusted risk ratio 0.40). The first episode was significantly shorter in the vaccinated group (mean 2.3 days) than in the non-vaccinated group (mean 3.8 days) (pyoung, high-risk travellers. Vaccination with the WC/rBS oral cholera vaccine as well as food safety and hygiene advice could offer effective means of reducing the risk of diarrhoea while abroad.

The high-risk plaque initiative

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Falk, Erling; Sillesen, Henrik; Muntendam, Pieter

2011-01-01

The High-Risk Plaque (HRP) Initiative is a research and development effort to advance the understanding, recognition, and management of asymptomatic individuals at risk for a near-term atherothrombotic event such as myocardial infarction or stroke. Clinical studies using the newest technologies...... have been initiated, including the BioImage Study in which novel approaches are tested in a typical health plan population. Asymptomatic at-risk individuals were enrolled, including a survey-only group (n = 865), a group undergoing traditional risk factor scoring (n = 718), and a group in which all...

Railway Crossing Risk Area Detection Using Linear Regression and Terrain Drop Compensation Techniques

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Wen-Yuan; Wang, Mei; Fu, Zhou-Xing

2014-01-01

Most railway accidents happen at railway crossings. Therefore, how to detect humans or objects present in the risk area of a railway crossing and thus prevent accidents are important tasks. In this paper, three strategies are used to detect the risk area of a railway crossing: (1) we use a terrain drop compensation (TDC) technique to solve the problem of the concavity of railway crossings; (2) we use a linear regression technique to predict the position and length of an object from image processing; (3) we have developed a novel strategy called calculating local maximum Y-coordinate object points (CLMYOP) to obtain the ground points of the object. In addition, image preprocessing is also applied to filter out the noise and successfully improve the object detection. From the experimental results, it is demonstrated that our scheme is an effective and corrective method for the detection of railway crossing risk areas. PMID:24936948

Railway Crossing Risk Area Detection Using Linear Regression and Terrain Drop Compensation Techniques

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wen-Yuan Chen

2014-06-01

Full Text Available Most railway accidents happen at railway crossings. Therefore, how to detect humans or objects present in the risk area of a railway crossing and thus prevent accidents are important tasks. In this paper, three strategies are used to detect the risk area of a railway crossing: (1 we use a terrain drop compensation (TDC technique to solve the problem of the concavity of railway crossings; (2 we use a linear regression technique to predict the position and length of an object from image processing; (3 we have developed a novel strategy called calculating local maximum Y-coordinate object points (CLMYOP to obtain the ground points of the object. In addition, image preprocessing is also applied to filter out the noise and successfully improve the object detection. From the experimental results, it is demonstrated that our scheme is an effective and corrective method for the detection of railway crossing risk areas.

Oral Microbiota and Risk for Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma in a High-Risk Area of China.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Xingdong; Winckler, Björn; Lu, Ming; Cheng, Hongwei; Yuan, Ziyu; Yang, Yajun; Jin, Li; Ye, Weimin

2015-01-01

Poor oral health has been linked with an increased risk of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). We investigated whether alteration of oral microbiota is associated with ESCC risk. Fasting saliva samples were collected from 87 incident and histopathologicallly diagnosed ESCC cases, 63 subjects with dysplasia and 85 healthy controls. All subjects were also interviewed with a questionnaire. V3-V4 region of 16S rRNA was amplified and sequenced by 454-pyrosequencing platform. Carriage of each genus was compared by means of multivariate-adjusted odds ratios derived from logistic regression model. Relative abundance was compared using Metastats method. Beta diversity was estimated using Unifrac and weighted Unifrac distances. Principal coordinate analysis (PCoA) was applied to ordinate dissimilarity matrices. Multinomial logistic regression was used to compare the coordinates between different groups. ESCC subjects had an overall decreased microbial diversity compared to control and dysplasia subjects (PPCoA coordinates also revealed that ESCC subjects had significantly different levels for several coordinates compared to non-ESCC subjects. In conclusion, we observed a correlation between altered salivary bacterial microbiota and ESCC risk. The results of our study on the saliva microbiome are of particular interest as it reflects the shift in microbial communities. Further studies are warranted to verify this finding, and if being verified, to explore the underlying mechanisms.

Environmental risk of oil spills in Northern Areas[Pollution abatement in Norway

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hoell, Espen

2006-07-01

The presentation discusses consequences and risks for the environment of oil spills and other pollution factors in the northern areas particularly in the north of Norway and the Barents Sea. Various environmental risk analysis are also discussed. The main conclusions are: Environmental risk for Obelix: The environmental risk is very low. The environmental risk for Obelix is less than 21% of Hydro's acceptance criteria for minor damage. The environmental risk is acceptable. DNV: The contingency planned for Obelix (barrier 1 and 2) will reduce the environmental risk further by approx. 60%, date: 2006-01-13. Question: Hydro Oil and Energy. Does the oil industry reach other conclusions than the national research institutes does for the Management Plan of the Barents Sea. The underlying studies (of the management plan) mainly consider the consequences of worst case events. Full rate (3000 m3/d), long duration (60 days). Blowout occurring at the worst time and place. They assume that consequences experienced by shipwreck accidents in the coastal zone are relevant also for offshore discharges. They do not consider: The probability for the worst case blowout to occur. The probability for the worst case consequences to be realized. The probability for less serious impact. The probable impact distribution. Overall conclusion: Environmental Risk of oil and gas activities in Lofoten and the Barents Sea Based on: 1) 40 years of experience in the Norwegian sector. 2) World leading risk reduction technology. 3) Systematic and thorough methods for analysis of environmental risk. 4) Several environmental risk analyses for Barents Sea and Lofoten drilling operations, indicating acceptable risk levels. 5) Recent ERA for Goliath drilling indicating similar low risk levels. 6) Well functioning contingency systems. We conclude that the environmental risk of oil and gas activities in the northern areas is low and acceptable to the Norwegian society. The environmental risk due to oil

RISKS INDUCED BY MAXIMUM FLOW WITH 1% PROBABILITY AND THEIR EFFECT ON SEVERAL SPECIES AND HABITATS IN PRICOP-HUTA-CERTEZE AND UPPER TISA NATURA 2000 PROTECTED AREAS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

GH. ŞERBAN

2016-03-01

Full Text Available The purpose of the paper is to identify and locate some species related to habitats from Pricop-Huta-Certeze and Upper Tisa Natura 2000 Protected Areas (PHCTS and to determine if they are vulnerable to risks induced by maximum flow phases. In the first chapter are mentioned few references about the morphometric parameters of the hydrographic networks within the study area, as well as some references related to the maximum flow phases frequency. After the second chapter, where methods and databases used in the study are described, we proceed to the identification of the areas that are covered by water during flood, as well as determining the risk level related to these areas. The GIS modeling reveals small extent of the flood high risk for natural environment related to protected areas and greater extent for the anthropic environment. The last chapter refers to several species of fish and batrachia, as well as to those amphibious mammals identified in the study area that are vulnerable to floods (high turbidity effect, reduction of dissolved oxygen quantity, habitats destruction etc..

Development of a relative risk model for evaluating ecological risk of water environment in the Haihe River Basin estuary area.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Qiuying; Liu, Jingling; Ho, Kin Chung; Yang, Zhifeng

2012-03-15

Ecological risk assessment for water environment is significant to water resource management of basin. Effective environmental management and systems restoration such as the Haihe River Basin require holistic understanding of the relative importance of various stressor-related impacts throughout the basin. As an effective technical tool for evaluating the ecological risk, relative risk model (RRM) was applied in regional scale successfully. In this study, the risk transfer from upstream of basin was considered and the RRM was developed through introducing the source-stressor-habitat exposure filter (SSH), the endpoint-habitat exposure filter (EH) and the stressor-endpoint effect filter (SE) to reflect the meaning of exposure and effect more explicit. Water environment which includes water quality, water quantity and aquatic ecosystems was selected as the assessment endpoints. We created a conceptual model which depicting potential and effect pathways from source to stressor to habitat to endpoint. The Haihe River Basin estuary (HRBE) was selected as the model case. The results showed that there were two low risk regions, one medium risk region and two high risk regions in the HRBE. The results also indicated that urbanization was the biggest source, the second was shipping and the third was industry, their risk scores are 5.65, 4.71 and 3.68 respectively. Furthermore, habitat destruction was the largest stressor with the risk scores (2.66), the second was oxygen consuming organic pollutants (1.75) and the third was pathogens (1.75). So these three stressors were the main influencing factors of the ecological pressure in the study area. For habitats, open waters (9.59) and intertidal mudflat were enduring the bigger pressure and should be taken considerable attention. Ecological service values damaged (30.54) and biodiversity decreased were facing the biggest risk pressure. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

IDENTIFYING HIGH-RISK POPULATIONS OF TUBERCULOSIS USING ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS AND GIS BASED MULTI-CRITERIA DECISION MAKING METHOD

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A. R. Abdul Rasam

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Development of an innovative method to enhance the detection of tuberculosis (TB in Malaysia is the latest agenda of the Ministry of Health. Therefore, a geographical information system (GIS based index model is proposed as an alternative method for defining potential high-risk areas of local TB cases at Section U19, Shah Alam. It is adopted a spatial multi-criteria decision making (MCDM method for ranking environmental risk factors of the disease in a standardised five-score scale. Scale 1 and 5 illustrate the lowest and the highest risk of the TB spread respectively, while scale from 3 to 5 is included as a potential risk level. These standardised scale values are then combined with expert normalised weights (0 to 1 to calculate the overall index values and produce a TB ranked map using a GIS overlay analysis and weighted linear combination. It is discovered that 71.43% of the Section is potential as TB high risk areas particularly at urban and densely populated settings. This predictive result is also reliable with the current real cases in 2015 by 76.00% accuracy. A GIS based MCDM method has demonstrated analytical capabilities in targeting high-risk spots and TB surveillance monitoring system of the country, but the result could be strengthened by applying other uncertainty assessment method.

A small-area study of environmental risk assessment of outdoor falls.

Science.gov (United States)

Lai, Poh-Chin; Wong, Wing-Cheung; Low, Chien-Tat; Wong, Martin; Chan, Ming-Houng

2011-12-01

Falls in public places are an issue of great health concern especially for the elderly. Falls among the elderly is also a major health burden in many countries. This study describes a spatial approach to assess environmental causes of outdoor falls using a small urban community in Hong Kong as an example. The method involves collecting data on fall occurrences and mapping their geographic positions to examine circumstances and environmental evidence that contribute to falls. High risk locations or hot spots of falls are identified on the bases of spatial proximity and concentration of falls within a threshold distance by means of kernel smoothing and standard deviational ellipses. This method of geographic aggregation of individual fall incidents for a small-area study yields hot spots of manageable sizes. The spatial clustering approach is effective in two ways. Firstly, it allows visualisation and isolation of fall hot spots to draw focus. Secondly and especially under conditions of resource decline, policy makers are able to target specific locations to examine the underlying causal mechanisms and strategise effective response and preventive measures based on the types of environmental risk factors identified.

Genotoxicity detected in wild mice living in a highly polluted wetland area in south western Spain

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mateos, Santiago; Daza, Paula; Dominguez, Inmaculada; Cardenas, Jose Antonio [University of Seville, Department of Cell Biology, Faculty of Biology, Avenida de la Reina Mercedes no 6, E-41012 Seville (Spain); Cortes, Felipe [University of Seville, Department of Cell Biology, Faculty of Biology, Avenida de la Reina Mercedes no 6, E-41012 Seville (Spain)], E-mail: cortes@us.es

2008-06-15

A field study was carried out in the south of the Iberian Peninsula in an industrial area in the neighbourhood of Huelva city, SW Spain, and in a natural area (Donana National Park) for comparison, to estimate the genetic risk induced by environmental pollution in wild mice. Genotoxic effects in a sentinel organism, the Algerian mice (Mus spretus) free living in the industrial area were compared with animals of the same species living in the natural protected area. The single cell gel electrophoresis, or Comet assay, was performed as a genotoxicity test in peripheral blood of mice. Our results clearly show that mice free living in the contaminated area bear a high burden of genetic damage as compared with control individuals. The results suggest that the assessing of genotoxicity levels by the Comet assay in wild mice can be used as a valuable test in pollution monitoring and environmental conservation. - We have found an increased genotoxic damage in wild mice in a highly polluted area from industry, mining and agriculture in SW Spain, as assessed by the Comet assay.

Lead exposure is associated with risk of impaired coagulation in preschool children from an e-waste recycling area.

Science.gov (United States)

Zeng, Zhijun; Huo, Xia; Zhang, Yu; Xiao, Zhehong; Zhang, Yuling; Xu, Xijin

2018-05-12

Environmental lead exposure leads to various deleterious effects on multiple organs and systems, including the hematopoietic system. To explore the effects of lead exposure on platelet indices in preschool children from an informal, lead-contaminated electronic waste (e-waste) recycling area, we collected venous blood samples from 466 preschool children (331 from an e-waste area (Guiyu) and 135 from a non-e-waste area (Haojiang)). Child blood lead levels (BLLs) were determined by graphite furnace atomic absorption spectrophotometry, while platelet indices were quantified using a Sysmex XT-1800i hematology analyzer. Higher blood lead levels are observed in e-waste lead-exposed preschool children. Significant relationships between high blood lead levels (exceeding current health limits) and elevated platelet count (PLT), plateletcrit (PCT), mean platelet volume (MPV), and platelet large cell ratio (P-LCR) were also uncovered. Furthermore, the median PLT and PCT levels of children from the exposed group both exceeded the respective recommended maximum reference range value, whereas the reference group did not. Location of child residence in Guiyu and BLLs were both risk factors related to platelet indices. These results suggest that high blood lead exposure from e-waste recycling may increase the risk of an amplified coagulation process through the activation of platelets in preschool children.

Patients at High-Risk for Surgical Site Infection.

Science.gov (United States)

Mueck, Krislynn M; Kao, Lillian S

Surgical site infections (SSIs) are a significant healthcare quality issue, resulting in increased morbidity, disability, length of stay, resource utilization, and costs. Identification of high-risk patients may improve pre-operative counseling, inform resource utilization, and allow modifications in peri-operative management to optimize outcomes. Review of the pertinent English-language literature. High-risk surgical patients may be identified on the basis of individual risk factors or combinations of factors. In particular, statistical models and risk calculators may be useful in predicting infectious risks, both in general and for SSIs. These models differ in the number of variables; inclusion of pre-operative, intra-operative, or post-operative variables; ease of calculation; and specificity for particular procedures. Furthermore, the models differ in their accuracy in stratifying risk. Biomarkers may be a promising way to identify patients at high risk of infectious complications. Although multiple strategies exist for identifying surgical patients at high risk for SSIs, no one strategy is superior for all patients. Further efforts are necessary to determine if risk stratification in combination with risk modification can reduce SSIs in these patient populations.

Hyperbaric index in the primary prevention of hypertensive complications in high-risk pregnancy.

Science.gov (United States)

Otero González, Alfonso; Uribe Moya, Silvia; Arenas Moncaleano, Ivan Gilberto; Borrajo Prol, María Paz; García García, María Jesús; López Sánchez, Luis

2015-01-01

Preeclampsia (PE) is a major cause of fetal morbidity and mortality. In the Western World, PE affects 2-7% of pregnancies and is responsible for 50,000 deaths annually. Early detection is a priority as it can change the clinical course, but there are no biomarkers or instrumental methods with high sensitivity and specificity. Only the hyperbaric index has a sensitivity and specificity of 99% for early identification of pregnant women at risk of developing PE, but its use is not widespread. To assess the usefulness of the hyperbaric index in the primary prevention of hypertensive pregnancy complications in a public healthcare area. This is a retrospective study of pregnancies that occurred in our area during the period 2007-2012 (N=11,784). The diagnosis was established by the hyperbaric index and pregnant women at risk were treated with ASA at night. In pregnant patients referred to the nephrology clinic (38.2%), diagnosed as high-risk for PE, and treated with 100mg ASA/night (from week 17), the incidence of PE episodes was reduced by 96.94. Copyright © 2015 Sociedad Española de Nefrología. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Area-level poverty and preterm birth risk: A population-based multilevel analysis

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Muglia Louis A

2008-09-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Preterm birth is a complex disease with etiologic influences from a variety of social, environmental, hormonal, genetic, and other factors. The purpose of this study was to utilize a large population-based birth registry to estimate the independent effect of county-level poverty on preterm birth risk. To accomplish this, we used a multilevel logistic regression approach to account for multiple co-existent individual-level variables and county-level poverty rate. Methods Population-based study utilizing Missouri's birth certificate database (1989–1997. We conducted a multilevel logistic regression analysis to estimate the effect of county-level poverty on PTB risk. Of 634,994 births nested within 115 counties in Missouri, two levels were considered. Individual-level variables included demographics factors, prenatal care, health-related behavioral risk factors, and medical risk factors. The area-level variable included the percentage of the population within each county living below the poverty line (US census data, 1990. Counties were divided into quartiles of poverty; the first quartile (lowest rate of poverty was the reference group. Results PTB th quartile (4.9%, p adjOR 1.18 (95% CI 1.03, 1.35, with a similar effect at earlier gestational ages (adjOR 1.27 (95% CI 1.06, 1.52. Conclusion Women residing in socioeconomically deprived areas are at increased risk of preterm birth, above other underlying risk factors. Although the risk increase is modest, it affects a large number of pregnancies.

Analysis of Risk Optimization on the Industrial Area Around

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sony, DT; Demon-Handoyo

2000-01-01

Indonesia as an industrial country, there are large industrial area whichis directly or indirectly have an effect to human health by routine dischargeof waste from industrial installations. So, the criteria limit must bedetermined to regulate industrial area. The PRA method (Probabilistic RiskAssessment) is used in the nuclear technology especially reactor safetytechnology could be applied to accommodate those problems. The principles ofPRA method is to determine probability and consequences for accident ofindustrial plant or transportation of product. The analysis procedureincludes classification of industry activity type and inventories, estimationof external consequences, estimation of probability for installation andtransportation accident, determination of social risk and prioritization ofrisks. Calculation of consequence is based on the lost of life which isaffected by fire, toxic and explosive. The calculation for one industrialarea simple model as case study was done. From the calculation result, theconsequences value of 0 - 25 persons/event; 26 - 50 persons/event; 51 - 75persons/event, 625 - 650 persons/event and the event probability value of1.10 -2 to 3.10 -8 are obtained. The optimization value of industrial areaaround can be determined by using combination of probability value andconsequences value. (author)

Are HPV vaccination services accessible to high-risk communities? A spatial analysis of HPV-associated cancer and Chlamydia rates and safety-net clinics.

Science.gov (United States)

Tsui, Jennifer; Rodriguez, Hector P; Gee, Gilbert C; Escobedo, Loraine A; Kominski, Gerald F; Bastani, Roshan

2013-12-01

While HPV vaccines can greatly benefit adolescents and young women from high-risk areas, little is known about whether safety-net immunization services are geographically accessible to communities at greatest risk for HPV-associated diseases. We explore the spatial relationship between areas with high HPV risk and proximity to safety-net clinics from an ecologic perspective. We used cancer registry data and Chlamydia surveillance data to identify neighborhoods within Los Angeles County with high risk for HPV-associated cancers. We examined proximity to safety-net clinics among neighborhoods with the highest risk. Proximity was measured as the shortest distance between each neighborhood center and the nearest clinic and having a clinic within 3 miles of each neighborhood center. The average 5-year non-age-adjusted rates were 1,940 cases per 100,000 for Chlamydia and 60 per 100,000 for HPV-associated cancers. A large majority, 349 of 386 neighborhoods with high HPV-associated cancer rates and 532 of 537 neighborhoods with high Chlamydia rates, had a clinic within 3 miles of the neighborhood center. Clinics were more likely to be located within close proximity to high-risk neighborhoods in the inner city. High-risk neighborhoods outside of this urban core area were less likely to be near accessible clinics. The majority of high-risk neighborhoods were geographically near safety-net clinics with HPV vaccination services. Due to low rates of vaccination, these findings suggest that while services are geographically accessible, additional efforts are needed to improve uptake. Programs aimed to increase awareness about the vaccine and to link underserved groups to vaccination services are warranted.

Spatial Lead Pollution in Aquatic Habitats and the Potential Risks in Makassar Coastal Area of South Sulawesi, Indonesia

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Anwar Mallongi

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Background: Lead can be a poison to the environment which may affects all body systems. Lead can also affect human health especially children, lead potentially lowering level of intelligence, growth, loss, causing anemia, and disorder among children as lead is neurotoxin and accumulative. In addition lead can cause a decrease in the ability of the brain, whereas in adults may cause interference of high blood pressure and other tissue toxicity. Any increase in the levels of lead in the blood of 10 ug / dl led to a decrease in IQ of 2.5 points or 0.975 IQ. The research aims to produce a special model of health risk among elementary school children due to lead exposure in the coastal city of Makassar. Methods: This study investigate the distribution of toxic lead in Makassar coastal area namely; sea water, sediments, shells  and crab. Then investigate lead toxins around the school such as lead in soil, dust, paint, snacks and air. After create distribution maps lead risks we create analysis of environmental health risks for children. Results: Result revealed that the analysis of spatial distribution of Lead in the sediment shows that the high distribution was in station 3 in Mariso districts then coastal Tallo area and the lowest was in Tamalate District. While the analysis of the spatial Pb distribution in mussels seen that the highest distribution Pb was in  station 4 of districts Mariso then coastal waters Tallo area and the lowest was in Tamalate District 5.00 to 7.20 mg / g. Conclusion: In conclusion, it revealed the concentration of Lead at all stations of those four districts have exceeded the level of allowed standard and may potentially lead to a hazard both to environment and human being who are living in the surround area.

Behavioral Risk Factors: Selected Metropolitan Area Risk Trends (SMART) MMSA Age-adjusted Prevalence Data (2011 to Present)

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — 2011 to present. BRFSS SMART MMSA age-adjusted prevalence combined land line and cell phone data. The Selected Metropolitan Area Risk Trends (SMART) project uses the...

Waste area grouping 2 Phase I task data report: Ecological risk assessment and White Oak Creek watershed screening ecological risk assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Efroymson, R.A.; Jackson, B.L.; Jones, D.S. [and others

1996-05-01

This report presents an ecological risk assessment for Waste Area Grouping (WAG) 2 based on the data collected in the Phase I remedial investigation (RI). It serves as an update to the WAG 2 screening ecological risk assessment that was performed using historic data. In addition to identifying potential ecological risks in WAG 2 that may require additional data collection, this report serves to determine whether there are ecological risks of sufficient magnitude to require a removal action or some other expedited remedial process. WAG 2 consists of White Oak Creek (WOC) and its tributaries downstream of the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) main plant area, White Oak Lake (WOL), the White Oak Creek Embayment of the Clinch River, associated flood plains, and the associated groundwater. The WOC system drains the WOC watershed, an area of approximately 16.8 km{sup 2} that includes ORNL and associated WAGs. The WOC system has been exposed to contaminants released from ORNL and associated operations since 1943 and continues to receive contaminants from adjacent WAGs.

A framework for widespread replication of a highly spatially resolved childhood lead exposure risk model.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Dohyeong; Galeano, M Alicia Overstreet; Hull, Andrew; Miranda, Marie Lynn

2008-12-01

Preventive approaches to childhood lead poisoning are critical for addressing this longstanding environmental health concern. Moreover, increasing evidence of cognitive effects of blood lead levels system-based childhood lead exposure risk models, especially if executed at highly resolved spatial scales, can help identify children most at risk of lead exposure, as well as prioritize and direct housing and health-protective intervention programs. However, developing highly resolved spatial data requires labor-and time-intensive geocoding and analytical processes. In this study we evaluated the benefit of increased effort spent geocoding in terms of improved performance of lead exposure risk models. We constructed three childhood lead exposure risk models based on established methods but using different levels of geocoded data from blood lead surveillance, county tax assessors, and the 2000 U.S. Census for 18 counties in North Carolina. We used the results to predict lead exposure risk levels mapped at the individual tax parcel unit. The models performed well enough to identify high-risk areas for targeted intervention, even with a relatively low level of effort on geocoding. This study demonstrates the feasibility of widespread replication of highly spatially resolved childhood lead exposure risk models. The models guide resource-constrained local health and housing departments and community-based organizations on how best to expend their efforts in preventing and mitigating lead exposure risk in their communities.

A risk characterization of safety research areas for integral fast reactor program planning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mueller, C.J.; Cahalan, J.E.; Hill, D.J.; Kramer, J.M.; Marchaterre, J.F.; Pedersen, D.R.; Sevy, R.H.; Tibbrook, R.W.; Wei, T.Y.; Wright, A.E.

1988-01-01

This paper characterizes the areas of integral fast reactor (IFR) safety research in terms of their importance in addressing the risk of core disruption sequences for innovative designs. Such sequences have traditionally been determined to constitute the primary risk to public health and safety. All core disruption sequences are folded into four fault categories: classic unprotected (unscrammed) events; loss of decay heat; local fault propagation; and failure to critical reactor structures. Event trees are used to describe these sequences and the areas in the IFR safety and related base technology research programs are discussed with respect to their relevance in addressing the key issues in preventing or delimiting core disruptive sequences. Thus a measure of potential for risk reduction is obtained for guidance in establishing research priorities

A risk characterization of safety research areas for Integral Fast Reactor program planning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mueller, C.J.; Cahalan, J.E.; Hill, D.J.

1988-01-01

This paper characterizes the areas of Integral Fast Reactor (IFR) safety research in terms of their importance in addressing the risk of core disruption sequences for innovative designs. Such sequences have traditionally been determined to constitute the primary risk to public health and safety. All core disruption sequences are folded into four fault categories: classic unprotected (unscrammed) events; loss of decay heat; local fault propagation; and failure of critical reactor structures. Event trees are used to describe these sequences and the areas in the IFR Safety and related Base Technology research programs are discussed with respect to their relevance in addressing the key issues in preventing or delimiting core disruptive sequences. Thus a measure of potential for risk reduction is obtained for guidance in establishing research priorites

Classification of gastritis in first-degree relatives of patients with gastric cancer in a high cancer-risk area in Italy.

Science.gov (United States)

Saieva, Calogero; Rubio, Carlos A; Nesi, Gabriella; Zini, Enzo; Filomena, Alessandro

2012-05-01

Screening gastroscopic examinations were performed in a cohort of individuals at high risk for developing gastric carcinoma (GC). Five gastric biopsies were obtained following the Houston schema. Five histological parameters of gastritis were investigated: acute gastritis, chronic gastritis, and its sequelae; mucosal atrophy, intestinal metaplasia and pseudopyloric metaplasia. Out of 134 patients, 50% (n=67) had Helicobacter pylori (HP) infection. The sum of scores for the first four parameters was significantly higher in HP-positive cases than in HP-negative ones (pgastritis explain the high GC risk in this borough of Florence, considering that the incidence rate of GC is higher in Central than in Northern Italy. Similarities in the frequency of chronic gastritis and sequelae in Northern and Central Italy substantiate the conviction that the difference in GC risk in these regions might be the result of local environmental or lifestyle factors, rather than HP infection. This knowledge is crucial, considering that environmentally related diseases are theoretically preventable.

Health risk assessment from contaminated foodstuffs: a field study in chromite mining-affected areas northern Pakistan.

Science.gov (United States)

Nawab, Javed; Li, Gang; Khan, Sardar; Sher, Hassan; Aamir, Muhammad; Shamshad, Isha; Khan, Anwarzeb; Khan, Muhammad Amjad

2016-06-01

This study aimed to investigate the potential health risk associated with toxic metals in contaminated foodstuffs (fruits, vegetables, and cereals) collected from various agriculture fields present in chromite mining-affected areas of mafic and ultramafic terrains (northern Pakistan). The concentrations of Cr, Ni, Zn, Cd, and Pb were quantified in both soil and food samples. The soil samples were highly contaminated with Cr (320 mg/kg), Ni (108 mg/kg), and Cd (2.55 mg/kg), which exceeded their respective safe limits set by FAO/WHO. Heavy metal concentrations in soil were found in the order of Cr>Ni>Pb>Zn>Cd and showed significantly (p pollution load index (PLI) value was observed greater than three indicating high level of contamination in the study area. The concentrations of Cr (1.80-6.99 mg/kg) and Cd (0.21-0.90 mg/kg) in foodstuffs exceeded their safe limits, while Zn, Pb, and Ni concentrations were observed within their safe limits. In all foodstuffs, the selected heavy metal concentrations were accumulated significantly (p 1 for children and can pose potential health threats for local inhabitants. Graphical Abstract Heavy metals released from chromite mining lead to soil and foodstuff contamination and human health risk.

Integrated approach of environmental impact and risk assessment of Rosia Montana Mining Area, Romania.

Science.gov (United States)

Stefănescu, Lucrina; Robu, Brînduşa Mihaela; Ozunu, Alexandru

2013-11-01

The environmental impact assessment of mining sites represents nowadays a large interest topic in Romania. Historical pollution in the Rosia Montana mining area of Romania caused extensive damage to environmental media. This paper has two goals: to investigate the environmental pollution induced by mining activities in the Rosia Montana area and to quantify the environmental impacts and associated risks by means of an integrated approach. Thus, a new method was developed and applied for quantifying the impact of mining activities, taking account of the quality of environmental media in the mining area, and used as case study in the present paper. The associated risks are a function of the environmental impacts and the probability of their occurrence. The results show that the environmental impacts and quantified risks, based on quality indicators to characterize the environmental quality, are of a higher order, and thus measures for pollution remediation and control need to be considered in the investigated area. The conclusion drawn is that an integrated approach for the assessment of environmental impact and associated risks is a valuable and more objective method, and is an important tool that can be applied in the decision-making process for national authorities in the prioritization of emergency action.

The long-term spatial-temporal trends and burden of esophageal cancer in one high-risk area: A population-registered study in Feicheng, China.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiubin Sun

Full Text Available Feicheng County is a high-risk area for esophageal cancer in Shandong province, China. It is important to determine the long-term spatio-temporal trends in epidemiological characteristics and the burden of esophageal cancer, especially since the implementation of the national esophageal cancer screening program for early detection and treatment in 2005.The data collected in Feicheng County from 2001 to 2012 was extracted from the whole-population cancer registry system. The incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALY and changing trends in esophageal cancer according to age and sex were calculated and described.The incidence rate of esophageal cancer in Feicheng was consistently high, and increased significantly for male, but not for female from 2001 to 2012, according to the joinpoint regression analysis. The highest and lowest yearly crude incidence rates were 160.78 and 95.97 per 100000 for males, and 81.36 and 52.17 per 100000 for females. The highest and lowest crude yearly mortality rates were 122.26 and 94.40 per 100000 for males, and 60.75 and 49.35 per 100000for females. Esophageal squamous cell carcinoma was the main pathology type and the tumor location changed significantly from 2001 to 2012. Overall, the DALY remained roughly stable and was estimated as 11.50 for males and 4.90 for females per 1000 people. The burden was mainly caused by premature death. There is an obvious spatial pattern in the distribution of incidence density and burden.Esophageal cancer remains a public health issue in Feicheng County with a high incidence, mortality and disease burden. The incidence and burden have obvious spatial heterogeneity, and further studies should be conducted to identify geographical risk factors for precise local prevention and control measures.

A case-control study of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in the high background radiation areas of Yangjiang, China

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zou Jianming; Zha Yongru [Guangdong Inst. of Prevention and Treatment of Occupational Diseases, Guangzhou (China); Sun Quanfu; Akiba, Suminori; Yuan Yongling; Tao Zufan; Wei Luxin; Sugahara, Tsutomu

2000-10-01

The main purposes of this study were to identify the major determinants of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) in the high-background radiation areas (HBRA) in Yangjiang, China and to evaluate their potential confounding effects on the NPC risk associated with exposure to high background radiation. A matched case-control study was conducted using those who died of NPC during the period 1987-1995. Two controls were randomly selected for each case from those who died from causes other than malignancies and external causes. Cases and their controls were matched with respect to sex and the years of birth and death ({+-}5 years). Study subjects' next-of-kin were interviewed using a standardized questionnaire to collect information on socioeconomic status, dietary habits, tobacco smoking and alcohol consumption, disease history, pesticide use, medical X-ray exposure, the family history of NPC and so on. We succeeded in interviewing 97 cases and 192 controls. Univariate conditional logistic regression analysis showed that NPC risk was associated with the consumption of salted fish, homemade pickles, and fermented soy beans, education levels, the history of chronic rhinitis, and the family history of NPC. Multivariate conditional logistic regression analysis revealed that education levels (Odds ratio (OR) for middle school or higher levels vs. no school education=3.8, 95% CI=1.2 to 11.8), salted fish intake (OR=3.2, 95% CI=1.7 to 6.1), the history of chronic rhinitis (OR=3.6, 95% CI=1.3 to 10.1), and the family history of NPC (OR=14.2, 95% CI=2.7 to 73.4) were independent risk factors of NPC. Tobacco smoking (OR=1.2, 95% CI=0.7 to 2.1), and alcohol consumption (OR=0.9, 95% CI=0.5 to 1.9) were not significantly related to NPC risk. The ORs of NPC risk comparing HBRA and a nearby control area before and after adjustment for the major risk determinants identified in the present study were 0.86 (95% CI=0.50 to 1.50) and 0.87 (95% CI=0.45 to 1.67), respectively. Salted fish

A case-control study of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in the high background radiation areas of Yangjiang, China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zou Jianming; Zha Yongru; Sun Quanfu; Akiba, Suminori; Yuan Yongling; Tao Zufan; Wei Luxin; Sugahara, Tsutomu

2000-01-01

The main purposes of this study were to identify the major determinants of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) in the high-background radiation areas (HBRA) in Yangjiang, China and to evaluate their potential confounding effects on the NPC risk associated with exposure to high background radiation. A matched case-control study was conducted using those who died of NPC during the period 1987-1995. Two controls were randomly selected for each case from those who died from causes other than malignancies and external causes. Cases and their controls were matched with respect to sex and the years of birth and death (±5 years). Study subjects' next-of-kin were interviewed using a standardized questionnaire to collect information on socioeconomic status, dietary habits, tobacco smoking and alcohol consumption, disease history, pesticide use, medical X-ray exposure, the family history of NPC and so on. We succeeded in interviewing 97 cases and 192 controls. Univariate conditional logistic regression analysis showed that NPC risk was associated with the consumption of salted fish, homemade pickles, and fermented soy beans, education levels, the history of chronic rhinitis, and the family history of NPC. Multivariate conditional logistic regression analysis revealed that education levels (Odds ratio (OR) for middle school or higher levels vs. no school education=3.8, 95% CI=1.2 to 11.8), salted fish intake (OR=3.2, 95% CI=1.7 to 6.1), the history of chronic rhinitis (OR=3.6, 95% CI=1.3 to 10.1), and the family history of NPC (OR=14.2, 95% CI=2.7 to 73.4) were independent risk factors of NPC. Tobacco smoking (OR=1.2, 95% CI=0.7 to 2.1), and alcohol consumption (OR=0.9, 95% CI=0.5 to 1.9) were not significantly related to NPC risk. The ORs of NPC risk comparing HBRA and a nearby control area before and after adjustment for the major risk determinants identified in the present study were 0.86 (95% CI=0.50 to 1.50) and 0.87 (95% CI=0.45 to 1.67), respectively. Salted fish intake was

Flood risk and climate change in the Rotterdam area, The Netherlands: Enhancing citizen's climate risk perceptions and prevention responses despite skepticism

OpenAIRE

de Boer, J.; Botzen, W.J.W.; Terpstra, T.

2016-01-01

Effective communication about climate change and related risks is complicated by the polarization between “climate alarmists” and “skeptics.” This paper provides insights for the design of climate risk communication strategies by examining how the interplay between climate change and flood risk communication affects citizens’ risk perceptions and responses. The study is situated in a delta area with substantial geographic variations in the occurrence and potential impact of flood risk, which ...

Distribution and health risk assessment to heavy metals near smelting and mining areas of Hezhang, China.

Science.gov (United States)

Briki, Meryem; Zhu, Yi; Gao, Yang; Shao, Mengmeng; Ding, Huaijian; Ji, Hongbing

2017-08-19

Mining and smelting areas in Hezhang have generated a large amount of heavy metals into the environment. For that cause, an evaluative study on human exposure to heavy metals including Co, Ni, Cu, Zn, Cr, As, Cd, Pb, Sb, Bi, Be, and Hg in hair and urine was conducted for their concentrations and correlations. Daily exposure and non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic risk were estimated. Sixty-eight scalp hair and 66 urine samples were taken from participants of different ages (6-17, 18-40, 41-60, and ≥ 65 years) living in the vicinity of an agricultural soil near mine and smelting areas. The results compared to the earlier studies showed an elevated concentration of Pb, Be, Bi, Co, Cr, Ni, Sb, and Zn in hair and urine. These heavy metals were more elevated in mining than in smelting. Considering gender differences, females were likely to be more affected than male. By investigating age differences in this area, high heavy metal concentrations in male's hair and urine existed in age of 18-40 and ≥ 66, respectively. However, females did not present homogeneous age distribution. Hair and urine showed a different distribution of heavy metals in different age and gender. In some cases, significant correlation was found between heavy metals in hair and urine (P > 0.05 and P > 0.01) in mining area. The estimated average daily intake of heavy metals in vegetables showed a great contribution compared to the soil and water. Non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic risk values of total pathways in mining and smelting areas were higher than 1 and exceeded the acceptable levels. Thus, the obtained data might be useful for further studies. They can serve as a basis of comparison and assessing the effect of simultaneous exposure from heavy metals in mining and smelting areas, and potential health risks from exposure to heavy metals in vegetables need more consideration.

[Human rabies transmitted by dogs: risk areas in Minas Gerais, Brazil, 1991-1999].

Science.gov (United States)

de Miranda, Cristiana Ferreira Jardim; da Silva, José Ailton; Moreira, Elvio Carlos

2003-01-01

A retrospective study based on observation with the objective of identifying and characterizing the different risk areas for rabies transmission by dogs took place in Minas Gerais State, Brazil, from 1991 to 1999. Indicators confirmed occurrences of canine and feline rabies, notification of human rabies, and administration of appropriate vaccination. The Minas Gerais State Health System is divided into 25 Regional Health Centers, which are linked to the State Health Department (SES-MG). These Health Centers were utilized in the study. The results of 2,845 records of laboratory diagnosis for canine, feline, and human rabies were analyzed. Consolidated SES-MG reports from 1997 to 1999 for rabies vaccination and notification records for cases of human rabies from the National Health Foundation (FUNASA) were also used. In order to verify the local reality, a semi-structured interview with each regional program director was conducted. Minas Gerais presents four different risk modalities, classified as zero, low, medium, and high.

Mapping of nitrogen risks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Blicher-Mathiesen, Gitte; Andersen, Hans Estrup; Carstensen, Jacob

2014-01-01

risk mapping part of the tool, we combined a modelled root zone N leaching with a catchment-specific N reduction factor which in combination determines the N load to the marine recipient. N leaching was calculated using detailed information of agricultural management from national databases as well...... will be more effective if they are implemented in N loss hot spots or risk areas. Additionally, the highly variable N reduction in groundwater and surface waters needs to be taken into account as this strongly influences the resulting effect of mitigation measures. The objectives of this study were to develop...... and apply an N risk tool to the entire agricultural land area in Denmark. The purpose of the tool is to identify high risk areas, i.e. areas which contribute disproportionately much to diffuse N losses to the marine recipient, and to suggest cost-effective measures to reduce losses from risk areas. In the N...

Oral Microbiota and Risk for Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma in a High-Risk Area of China.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xingdong Chen

Full Text Available Poor oral health has been linked with an increased risk of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC. We investigated whether alteration of oral microbiota is associated with ESCC risk. Fasting saliva samples were collected from 87 incident and histopathologicallly diagnosed ESCC cases, 63 subjects with dysplasia and 85 healthy controls. All subjects were also interviewed with a questionnaire. V3-V4 region of 16S rRNA was amplified and sequenced by 454-pyrosequencing platform. Carriage of each genus was compared by means of multivariate-adjusted odds ratios derived from logistic regression model. Relative abundance was compared using Metastats method. Beta diversity was estimated using Unifrac and weighted Unifrac distances. Principal coordinate analysis (PCoA was applied to ordinate dissimilarity matrices. Multinomial logistic regression was used to compare the coordinates between different groups. ESCC subjects had an overall decreased microbial diversity compared to control and dysplasia subjects (P<0.001. Decreased carriage of genera Lautropia, Bulleidia, Catonella, Corynebacterium, Moryella, Peptococcus and Cardiobacterium were found in ESCC subjects compared to non-ESCC subjects. Multinomial logistic regression analyses on PCoA coordinates also revealed that ESCC subjects had significantly different levels for several coordinates compared to non-ESCC subjects. In conclusion, we observed a correlation between altered salivary bacterial microbiota and ESCC risk. The results of our study on the saliva microbiome are of particular interest as it reflects the shift in microbial communities. Further studies are warranted to verify this finding, and if being verified, to explore the underlying mechanisms.

Values of soil-plant transfer factor of 226Ra and 228Ra: agricultural areas versus areas of high natural radioactivity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wasserman, Maria Angelica; Lauria, Dejanira; Perez, Daniel Vidal; Schuch, Luiz Alexandre; Zago, Ari

2000-01-01

In this work, soil to plant transfer factor of 226 Ra and 228 Ra obtained in areas of traditional agricultural practices varied as a function of the considered cultivated species but little variation was observed as a function of the soil type. Beans and soybeans presented more important absorption than cereals (corn, rice and wheat). In our work legumes (bean and soybean) presented transfer factors up to one order of magnitude higher than average values for regions where natural radioactivity is high. On the other hand, the results for cereals did not presented such clear differences. It can be concluded that cultural inputs of 226 Ra and 228 Ra are occurring in agricultural areas, but few species can concentrate it. The transfer factor values obtained in this work for 226 Ra and 228 Ra can be applied in risk assessment models. (author)

The polymorphisms of P53 codon 72 and MDM2 SNP309 and renal cell carcinoma risk in a low arsenic exposure area

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Huang, Chao-Yuan [Graduate Institute of Clinical Medicine, College of Medicine, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan (China); Department of Urology, National Taiwan University Hospital, College of Medicine National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan (China); Su, Chien-Tien [Department of Family Medicine, Taipei Medical University Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan (China); Chu, Jan-Show [Graduate Institute of Clinical Medicine, College of Medicine, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan (China); Department of Pathology, College of Medicine, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan (China); Huang, Shu-Pin [Department of Urology, Kaohsiung Medical University Hospital, College of Medicine Kaohsiung Medical University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan (China); Pu, Yeong-Shiau [Department of Urology, National Taiwan University Hospital, College of Medicine National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan (China); Yang, Hsiu-Yuan [School of Public Health, College of Public Health and Nutrition, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan (China); Chung, Chi-Jung [Department of Medical Research, China Medical University Hospital, Taichung, Taiwan (China); Department of Health Risk Management, College of Public Health, China Medical University, Taichung, Taiwan (China); Wu, Chia-Chang [School of Public Health, College of Public Health and Nutrition, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan (China); Department of Urology, Taipei Medical Universtiy-Shuang Ho Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan (China); Hsueh, Yu-Mei, E-mail: ymhsueh@tmu.edu.tw [School of Public Health, College of Public Health and Nutrition, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan (China); Department of Public Health, School of Medicine, College of Medicine, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan (China)

2011-12-15

Our recent study demonstrated the increased risk of renal cell carcinoma (RCC) associated with high urinary total arsenic levels among people living in a low arsenic exposure area. Genomic instability is important in arsenic carcinogenesis. This study evaluated the relationship between the polymorphisms of p53, p21, and MDM2, which plays a role in gene stability, and the arsenic-related RCC risk. Here, we found that p53 Pro/Pro genotype and MDM2 SNP309 GG genotype significantly increased RCC risk compared to the p53 Arg/Arg genotype and MDM2 SNP309 TT genotype. RCC patients with the p53Arg/Arg genotype had a signicantly low percentage of inorganic arsenic, a low percentage of monomethylarsonic acid (MMA), and a high percentage of dimethylarsinic acid (DMA), which indicates efcient arsenic methylation capacity. Subjects with the p53 Arg/Pro + Pro/Pro genotype or MDM2 SNP309 TG + GG genotype, in conjunction with high urinary total arsenic ({>=} 14.02 {mu}g/L), had a signicantly higher RCC risk than those with the p53 Arg/Arg or MDM2 SNP309 TT genotypes and low urinary total arsenic. Taken together, this is the first study to show that a variant genotype of p53 Arg{sup 72}Pro or MDM2 SNP309 may modify the arsenic-related RCC risk even in a non-obvious arsenic exposure area. -- Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Subjects with p53 Pro/Pro or MDM2 GG genotype significantly increased RCC risk. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer A significant multiplicative joint effect of p53 and p21 on RCC risk. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer RCC patients with p53 Arg/Arg genotype had efficient arsenic methylation capacity. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Joint effect of p53 or MDM2 genotype and high urinary total arsenic on RCC risk.

Reanalysis of noncancer deaths (1987-1995) among residents in high background radiation area of Yangjiang, China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zou Jianming; Zha Yongru; Sun Quanfu; Liu Yusheng; Li Jia; Tao Zufan; Wei Lvxin

2004-01-01

Objective: To further analyze non-cancer mortality rates and relevant influencing factors among the residents in high background radiation area(HBRA) and its control area (CA). Methods: The data for the period 1987-1995 were obtained from a fixed cohort by prospective survey. The mortality investigation on the spot consisted of two steps, i.e. the follow-up of the cohort members and the ascertainment of causes of death. On the basis of the hamlet-specific average of annual external dose, the cohort members were classified into four groups for internal comparison: high, medial and low dose groups in HBRA and control group in CA. Relative risk (RR), excess relative risk(ERR/Sv) and its 95% confidence interval (CI) were estimated using AMFIT program in Epicure. Results: During the period 1987-1995, the noncancer mortality in HBRA increased by 9% compared with that in the control group, and the relative risk of noncancer diseases was 1.09 (P=0.01), indicating a statistically significant excess mortality in the HBRA. The significantly increased noncancer death was caused by diseases of digestive system, with a RR of 1.46(P=0.006); the relative risk of chronic liver diseases including cirrhosis was 1.98(P=0.004). The significantly decreased noncancer death rates were observed for the infectious and parasitic diseases, the RR being 0.81(P=0.04); for pulmonary tuberculosis, RR 0.58(P<0.001). The homogeneity tests of risks across the four dose-groups revealed that the RRs for diseases of digestive system and for liver cirrhosis were significantly different, P values being 0.01 and 0.04, respectively. The ERR(95% CI)/Sv for diseases of digestive system and liver cirrhosis were 2.18(0.22, 7.64) and 10.94(1.34, NA), respectively. Conclusion: The death rates from diseases of digestive system, especially chronic liver diseases and cirrhosis were statistically significantly higher, and that from pulmonary tuberculosis was significantly lower in the HBRA than those in the control

Evaluating of the spatial heterogeneity of soil loss tolerance and its effects on erosion risk in the carbonate areas of southern China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Y. Li

2017-05-01

Full Text Available Soil loss tolerance (T value is one of the criteria in determining the necessity of erosion control measures and ecological restoration strategy. However, the validity of this criterion in subtropical karst regions is strongly disputed. In this study, T value is calculated based on soil formation rate by using a digital distribution map of carbonate rock assemblage types. Results indicated a spatial heterogeneity and diversity in soil loss tolerance. Instead of only one criterion, a minimum of three criteria should be considered when investigating the carbonate areas of southern China because the one region, one T value concept may not be applicable to this region. T value is proportionate to the amount of argillaceous material, which determines the surface soil thickness of the formations in homogenous carbonate rock areas. Homogenous carbonate rock, carbonate rock intercalated with clastic rock areas and carbonate/clastic rock alternation areas have T values of 20, 50 and 100 t/(km2 a, and they are extremely, severely and moderately sensitive to soil erosion. Karst rocky desertification (KRD is defined as extreme soil erosion and reflects the risks of erosion. Thus, the relationship between T value and erosion risk is determined using KRD as a parameter. The existence of KRD land is unrelated to the T value, although this parameter indicates erosion sensitivity. Erosion risk is strongly dependent on the relationship between real soil loss (RL and T value rather than on either erosion intensity or the T value itself. If RL > > T, then the erosion risk is high despite of a low RL. Conversely, if T > > RL, then the soil is safe although RL is high. Overall, these findings may clarify the heterogeneity of T value and its effect on erosion risk in a karst environment.

National assessment of Canadian pandemic preparedness: Employing InFluNet to identify high-risk areas for inter-wave vaccine distribution

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Patrick Saunders-Hastings

2017-08-01

Full Text Available Background: Influenza pandemics emerge at irregular and unpredictable intervals to cause substantial health, economic and social burdens. Optimizing health-system response is vital to mitigating the consequences of future pandemics. Methods: We developed a mathematical model to assess the preparedness of Canadian health systems to accommodate pandemic-related increases in patient demand. We identify vulnerable areas, assess the potential of inter-wave vaccination to mitigate impacts and evaluate the association between demographic and health-system characteristics in order to identify predictors of pandemic consequences. Results: Modelled average attack rates were 23.7–37.2% with no intervention and 2.5–6.4% with pre-vaccination. Peak acute-care demand was 7.5–19.5% of capacity with no intervention and 0.6–2.6% with pre-vaccination. The peak ICU demand was 39.3–101.8% with no intervention and 2.9–13.3% with pre-vaccination. Total mortality was 2258–7944 with no intervention and 88–472 with pre-vaccination. Regions of Southern Ontario were identified as most vulnerable to surges in patient demand. The strongest predictors of peak acute-care demand and ICU demand were acute-care bed capacity (R = −0.8697; r2 = 0.7564 and ICU bed capacity (R = −0.8151; r2 = 0.6644, respectively. Demographic characteristics had mild associations with predicted pandemic consequences. Conclusion: Inter-wave vaccination provided adequate acute-care resource protection under all scenarios; ICU resource adequacy was protected under mild disease assumptions, but moderate and severe diseases caused demand to exceed expected availability in 21% and 49% of study areas, respectively. Our study informs priority vaccine distribution strategies for pandemic planning, emphasizing the need for targeted early vaccine distribution to high-risk individuals and areas. Keywords: Pandemic influenza, Vaccination

PREVALENCE AND RISK FACTORS OF OBESITY IN PRIMARY SCHOOL IN URBAN AND RURAL AREAS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Made Ratna Dewi

2013-10-01

Full Text Available Normal 0 false false false IN X-NONE X-NONE Obesity has become a continous increasing global health problem. Obesity can happen in adult population and also on children as well as teenagers. There are several factors that influence the occurrence of obesity. The aim of this study is to determine the prevalence and risk factors for obesity in primary school children in urban and rural areas. A cross sectional study was conducted with a total sample of 241 pupils in several elementary schools. Anthropometric status determine using body mass index for age and obesity stated if measurement exceed ?95th percentile based on CDC 2000. Analysis data perform with the Pearson Chi-square, Fisher's Exact Test, and logistic regression. A P value of <0.05 was considered significant. This study showed the prevalence of obesity was 15%. The prevalence of obesity in urban areas was 21% and rural areas was 5%. The result showed risk of obesity multiplied by 3.8 times in urban children as they had a habit of "snacking" had risk of suffering obesity by 3.4 times (95% CI 1.2 to 9.0. Children who had habit of having fast food more than 2 times per week had the more risk of obesity by 5 times (95% CI 1.9 to 13.5. Mothers education in urban areas as a protective factor. Conclusion of this study show that the prevalence of obesity in urban areas is 21% and 5% in rural areas. “Snacking” habit and eating fast food more than 2 times per week increase the risk of obesity in urban areas, while in rural areas no risk factors consider significant for obesity. /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-para-margin-top:0cm; mso-para-margin-right:0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom:10.0pt; mso-para-margin-left:0cm; line-height:115%; mso

RBCA-based approaches to ecological risk assessment for TPH-contaminated areas

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hummell, R.; Vedagiri, U.

1995-01-01

The RBCA guidelines proposed by ASTM form an evaluation and decision-making framework for sites potentially contaminated by petroleum releases. They present a three-tiered approach of decreasing conservatism and increasing site-specificity that primarily evaluates risks to human health. While RBCA includes consideration of environmental impacts, there are no specific recommendations on how this is to be achieved. A RBCA-based ecological risk assessment approach was developed for TPH-contaminated areas in Alaska. The approach presents a habitat-based selection process for surrogate chemicals and indicator chemicals of ecological relevance, evaluation of ecotoxicity, derivation of matrix-specific Tier 1 RBSLs (including soils) and determination of Tier 2 and 3 SSTLS. Chemicals are considered by class, aquatic (freshwater and saltwater) and terrestrial habitats are evaluated independently, and chemical concentrations are screened in all media of concern (air, soil, water, sediment). Data needs and decision points specific to ecological receptors are identified for each tier of the approach. Other aspects of the approach include consideration of contaminant migration pathways and habitats that are typical of Arctic conditions. Areas where ecological and human risk concerns may overlap are identified

Use of probabilistic risk assessments to define areas of possible exemption from regulatory requirements

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thompson, C.A.; Carlson, D.; Kolaczkowski, A.; LaChance, J.

1988-01-01

The Risk-Based Licensing Program (RBLP) was sponsored by the Department of Energy for the purpose of establishing and demonstrating an approach for identifying potential areas for exemption from current regulatory requirements in the licensing of nuclear power plants. Such an approach could assist in the improvement of the regulatory process for both current and future nuclear plant designs. Use of the methodology could result in streamlining the regulatory process by eliminating unnecessarily detailed reviews of portions of a plant design not important to risk. The RBLP methodology utilizes probabilistic risk assessments, (PRAs), which are required of all future applicants for nuclear power plant licenses. PRA results are used as a screening tool to determine the risk significance of various plant features which are correlated to the risk importance of regulations to identify potential areas for regulatory exemption. Additional consideration is then given to non-risk factors in the final determination of exemption candidates. The RBLP methodology was demonstrated using an existing PRA. The results of the demonstration are highlighted. 10 refs

Human exposure to high natural background radiation: what can it teach us about radiation risks?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hendry, Jolyon H; Sohrabi, Mehdi; Burkart, Werner; Simon, Steven L; Wojcik, Andrzej; Cardis, Elisabeth; Laurier, Dominique; Tirmarche, Margot; Hayata, Isamu

2009-01-01

Natural radiation is the major source of human exposure to ionising radiation, and its largest contributing component to effective dose arises from inhalation of 222 Rn and its radioactive progeny. However, despite extensive knowledge of radiation risks gained through epidemiologic investigations and mechanistic considerations, the health effects of chronic low-level radiation exposure are still poorly understood. The present paper reviews the possible contribution of studies of populations living in high natural background radiation (HNBR) areas (Guarapari, Brazil; Kerala, India; Ramsar, Iran; Yangjiang, China), including radon-prone areas, to low dose risk estimation. Much of the direct information about risk related to HNBR comes from case-control studies of radon and lung cancer, which provide convincing evidence of an association between long-term protracted radiation exposures in the general population and disease incidence. The success of these studies is mainly due to the careful organ dose reconstruction (with relatively high doses to the lung), and to the fact that large-scale collaborative studies have been conducted to maximise the statistical power and to ensure the systematic collection of information on potential confounding factors. In contrast, studies in other (non-radon) HNBR areas have provided little information, relying mainly on ecological designs and very rough effective dose categorisations. Recent steps taken in China and India to establish cohorts for follow-up and to conduct nested case-control studies may provide useful information about risks in the future, provided that careful organ dose reconstruction is possible and information is collected on potential confounding factors.

Human exposure to high natural background radiation: what can it teach us about radiation risks?

Science.gov (United States)

Hendry, Jolyon H; Simon, Steven L; Wojcik, Andrzej; Sohrabi, Mehdi; Burkart, Werner; Cardis, Elisabeth; Laurier, Dominique; Tirmarche, Margot; Hayata, Isamu

2014-01-01

Natural radiation is the major source of human exposure to ionising radiation, and its largest contributing component to effective dose arises from inhalation of 222Rn and its radioactive progeny. However, despite extensive knowledge of radiation risks gained through epidemiologic investigations and mechanistic considerations, the health effects of chronic low-level radiation exposure are still poorly understood. The present paper reviews the possible contribution of studies of populations living in high natural background radiation (HNBR) areas (Guarapari, Brazil; Kerala, India; Ramsar, Iran; Yangjiang, China), including radon-prone areas, to low dose risk estimation. Much of the direct information about risk related to HNBR comes from case–control studies of radon and lung cancer, which provide convincing evidence of an association between long-term protracted radiation exposures in the general population and disease incidence. The success of these studies is mainly due to the careful organ dose reconstruction (with relatively high doses to the lung), and to the fact that large-scale collaborative studies have been conducted to maximise the statistical power and to ensure the systematic collection of information on potential confounding factors. In contrast, studies in other (non-radon) HNBR areas have provided little information, relying mainly on ecological designs and very rough effective dose categorisations. Recent steps taken in China and India to establish cohorts for follow-up and to conduct nested case–control studies may provide useful information about risks in the future, provided that careful organ dose reconstruction is possible and information is collected on potential confounding factors. PMID:19454802

Human exposure to high natural background radiation: what can it teach us about radiation risks?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hendry, Jolyon H; Sohrabi, Mehdi; Burkart, Werner [Department of Nuclear Sciences and Applications, International Atomic Energy Agency, Vienna (Austria); Simon, Steven L [Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD (United States); Wojcik, Andrzej [Institute of Nuclear Chemistry and Technology, Warsaw (Poland); Cardis, Elisabeth [Centre for Research in Environmental Epidemiology (CREAL), Municipal Institute of Medical Research (IMIM-Hospital del Mar) and CIBER Epidemiologia y Salud Publica - CIBERESP, Barcelona (Spain); Laurier, Dominique; Tirmarche, Margot [Radiobiology and Epidemiology Department, Radiological and Human Health Division, Institute for Radiological Protection and Nuclear Safety, Fontenay-aux-Roses (France); Hayata, Isamu [National Institute of Radiological Sciences, Chiba (Japan)], E-mail: jhendry2002uk@yahoo.com

2009-06-01

Natural radiation is the major source of human exposure to ionising radiation, and its largest contributing component to effective dose arises from inhalation of {sup 222}Rn and its radioactive progeny. However, despite extensive knowledge of radiation risks gained through epidemiologic investigations and mechanistic considerations, the health effects of chronic low-level radiation exposure are still poorly understood. The present paper reviews the possible contribution of studies of populations living in high natural background radiation (HNBR) areas (Guarapari, Brazil; Kerala, India; Ramsar, Iran; Yangjiang, China), including radon-prone areas, to low dose risk estimation. Much of the direct information about risk related to HNBR comes from case-control studies of radon and lung cancer, which provide convincing evidence of an association between long-term protracted radiation exposures in the general population and disease incidence. The success of these studies is mainly due to the careful organ dose reconstruction (with relatively high doses to the lung), and to the fact that large-scale collaborative studies have been conducted to maximise the statistical power and to ensure the systematic collection of information on potential confounding factors. In contrast, studies in other (non-radon) HNBR areas have provided little information, relying mainly on ecological designs and very rough effective dose categorisations. Recent steps taken in China and India to establish cohorts for follow-up and to conduct nested case-control studies may provide useful information about risks in the future, provided that careful organ dose reconstruction is possible and information is collected on potential confounding factors.

Radiological risk assessment for an urban area: Focusing on a drinking water contamination

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jeong, Hyo-Joon; Hwang, Won-Tae; Kim, Eun-Han; Han, Moon-Hee

2009-01-01

This paper specifically discusses a water quality modeling and health risk assessment for cesium-137 to assess the potential and actual effects on human health from drinking water contaminated by a radiological terrorist attack in the Seoul metropolitan area, Korea. With respect to the source term caused by a terrorist attack, it was assumed that 50 TBq of cesium-137 was introduced into the Paldang Lake which is a single water resource for the Seoul metropolitan area. EFDC (Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code) model was used to calculate the hydrodynamic and water quality for the model domain, Paldang Lake. Mortality risk and morbid risk coefficients caused by the ingestion of tap water were used to assess a human health risk due to cesium-137. The transport of cesium-137 in the Paldang water system was mainly dependent on the flow streamlines and the effect of the dilution from the other branches. The mortality and morbidity risks due to the drinking water contamination by cesium-137 were 4.77 x 10 -7 and 6.92 x 10 -7 , respectively. Accordingly, it is very important to take appropriate countermeasures when radiological terrorist attacks have occurred at water resources to prevent radiological risks by radionuclides.

Failure mode effects and criticality analysis: innovative risk assessment to identify critical areas for improvement in emergency department sepsis resuscitation.

Science.gov (United States)

Powell, Emilie S; O'Connor, Lanty M; Nannicelli, Anna P; Barker, Lisa T; Khare, Rahul K; Seivert, Nicholas P; Holl, Jane L; Vozenilek, John A

2014-06-01

Sepsis is an increasing problem in the practice of emergency medicine as the prevalence is increasing and optimal care to reduce mortality requires significant resources and time. Evidence-based septic shock resuscitation strategies exist, and rely on appropriate recognition and diagnosis, but variation in adherence to the recommendations and therefore outcomes remains. Our objective was to perform a multi-institutional prospective risk-assessment, using failure mode effects and criticality analysis (FMECA), to identify high-risk failures in ED sepsis resuscitation. We conducted a FMECA, which prospectively identifies critical areas for improvement in systems and processes of care, across three diverse hospitals. A multidisciplinary group of participants described the process of emergency department (ED) sepsis resuscitation to then create a comprehensive map and table listing all process steps and identified process failures. High-risk failures in sepsis resuscitation from each of the institutions were compiled to identify common high-risk failures. Common high-risk failures included limited availability of equipment to place the central venous catheter and conduct invasive monitoring, and cognitive overload leading to errors in decision-making. Additionally, we identified great variability in care processes across institutions. Several common high-risk failures in sepsis care exist: a disparity in resources available across hospitals, a lack of adherence to the invasive components of care, and cognitive barriers that affect expert clinicians' decision-making capabilities. Future work may concentrate on dissemination of non-invasive alternatives and overcoming cognitive barriers in diagnosis and knowledge translation.

[Targeting high-risk drugs to optimize clinical pharmacists' intervention].

Science.gov (United States)

Mouterde, Anne-Laure; Bourdelin, Magali; Maison, Ophélie; Coursier, Sandra; Bontemps, Hervé

2016-12-01

By the Order of 6 April 2011, the pharmacist must validate all the prescriptions containing "high-risk drugs" or those of "patients at risk". To optimize this clinical pharmacy activity, we identified high-risk drugs. A list of high-risk drugs has been established using literature, pharmacists' interventions (PI) performed in our hospital and a survey sent to hospital pharmacists. In a prospective study (analysis of 100 prescriptions for each high-risk drug selected), we have identified the most relevant to target. We obtained a statistically significant PI rate (P<0.05) for digoxin, oral anticoagulants direct, oral methotrexate and colchicine. This method of targeted pharmaceutical validation based on high-risk drugs is relevant to detect patients with high risk of medicine-related illness. Copyright © 2016 Société française de pharmacologie et de thérapeutique. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Regional probabilistic risk assessment of heavy metals in different environmental media and land uses: An urbanization-affected drinking water supply area

Science.gov (United States)

Peng, Chi; Cai, Yimin; Wang, Tieyu; Xiao, Rongbo; Chen, Weiping

2016-11-01

In this study, we proposed a Regional Probabilistic Risk Assessment (RPRA) to estimate the health risks of exposing residents to heavy metals in different environmental media and land uses. The mean and ranges of heavy metal concentrations were measured in water, sediments, soil profiles and surface soils under four land uses along the Shunde Waterway, a drinking water supply area in China. Hazard quotients (HQs) were estimated for various exposure routes and heavy metal species. Riverbank vegetable plots and private vegetable plots had 95th percentiles of total HQs greater than 3 and 1, respectively, indicating high risks of cultivation on the flooded riverbank. Vegetable uptake and leaching to groundwater were the two transfer routes of soil metals causing high health risks. Exposure risks during outdoor recreation, farming and swimming along the Shunde Waterway are theoretically safe. Arsenic and cadmium were identified as the priority pollutants that contribute the most risk among the heavy metals. Sensitivity analysis showed that the exposure route, variations in exposure parameters, mobility of heavy metals in soil, and metal concentrations all influenced the risk estimates.

Ability of Different Measures of Adiposity to Identify High Metabolic Risk in Adolescents

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Carla Moreira

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Introduction. This study aimed to evaluate the screening performance of different measures of adiposity: body mass index (BMI, waist circumference (WC, and waist-to-height ratio (WHtR for high metabolic risk in a sample of adolescents. Methods. A cross-sectional school-based study was conducted on 517 adolescents aged 15–18, from the Azorean Islands, Portugal. We measured fasting glucose, insulin, total cholesterol (TC, HDL-cholesterol, triglycerides, and systolic blood pressure. HOMA and TC/HDL-C ratio were calculated. For each of these variables, a Z-score was computed by age and sex. A metabolic risk score (MRS was constructed by summing the Z-scores of all individual risk factors. High risk was considered when the individual had ≥1SD of this score. Receiver-operating characteristics (ROC were used. Results. Linear regression analyses showed that, after adjusting for age and pubertal stage, all different measures of adiposity are positively and significantly associated with MRS in both sexes, with exception of WHtR for boys. BMI, WC, and WHtR performed well in detecting high MRS, indicated by areas under the curve (AUC, with slightly greater AUC for BMI than for WC and WHtR in both sexes. Conclusion. All measures of adiposity were significantly associated with metabolic risk factors in a sample of Portuguese adolescents.

Marine pollution in the Libyan coastal area: Environmental and risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Bonsignore, Maria; Salvagio Manta, Daniela; Al-Tayeb Sharif, Ehab A; D'Agostino, Fabio; Traina, Anna; Quinci, Enza Maria; Giaramita, Luigi; Monastero, Calogera; Benothman, Mohamed; Sprovieri, Mario

2018-03-01

A comprehensive assessment of the potential adverse effects on environment and human health generated by the inputs of chemicals from the most important Libyan petrochemical plant is presented. Ecotoxicological risk associated with the presence of As, Hg, Ni, Zn and PAHs in marine sediments is low or moderate, with a probability of toxicity for ecosystem <9% and <20% for heavy metals and PAHs respectively. However, surface sediments result strongly enriched in Hg and As of anthropogenic origin. Investigation of metals in fish allowed to assess potential risks for human populations via fish intake. Target hazard quotients values indicate potential risk associated to toxic metals exposure by fish consumption and lifetime cancer risk (TR) values highlight a potential carcinogen risk associated to As intake. Noteworthy, the presented results provide an unprecedented environmental dataset in an area where the availability of field data is very scant, for a better understanding of anthropogenic impacts at Mediterranean scale. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Chromosome translocation in residents of the high background radiation areas in southern China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hayata, Isamu; Minamihisamatsu, Masako; Wang Chunyan; Wei Zhang; Chen Deqing; Morishima, Hiroshige; Yuan Yongling; Wei Luxin; Sugahara, Tsutomu

2000-01-01

We performed a cytogenetical study using chromosome painting analysis on 9 residents of the naturally high background radiation areas (HBRA) and 8 residents of the control areas in southern China. The estimated dose (air kerma) of each resident measured by an electric pocket dosimeter showed 2.20-4.23 mGy/year in HBRA and 0.56-0.70 mGy/year in the control areas. A total of 14,096 cells (1,566 cells/case) in the former and 17,522 cells (2,190 cells/case) in the latter were analyzed. Children, both in HBRA and in the control areas, had translocations at low frequencies. The frequency of translocations among elder individuals varied widely and it was not possible to detect dose effect although it was detected in dicentrics. The effect of radiation on the induction of chromosome aberrations, which have a statistically potential risk of causing malignant or congenital diseases, seems to be less significant than those of metabolic factors and/or mutagenic agents (excluding radiation) even in HBRA in China. (author)

CADYRI, a dynamic mapping tool of human risk associated with flooding in urban areas

Science.gov (United States)

Tanguy, M.; Chokmani, K.; Bernier, M.; Poulin, J.

2013-12-01

When a flood affects an urban area, the managers and services responsible for public safety need precise and real time information on the localization of the flooded areas, on the submersion heights in those areas, but also on the vulnerability of people exposed to this hazard. Such information is essential for an effective crisis management. Despite a growing interest in this topic over the last 15 years, the development of flood risk assessment tools mainly focused on quantitative modeling of the monetary damages caused by floods to residential buildings or to critical infrastructures. Little attention was paid to the vulnerability of people exposed to flooding but also to the effects of the failure or destruction of critical infrastructures and residential building on people health and security during the disaster. Moreover, these models do not integrate the dynamic features of the flood (extent, submersion heights) and the evolution of human vulnerability in the same mapping tool. Thus, an accurate and precise evaluation of human risk induced by urban flooding is hardly feasible using such models. This study presents CADYRI, a dynamic mapping tool of human risk associated with flooding in urban areas, which fills the actual needs in terms of flood risk evaluation and management. This innovative tool integrates a methodology of flood hazard mapping that simulates, for a given discharge, the associated water level, and subsequently determines the extent of the flooded area and the submersion heights at each point of the flooded area, using a DEM. The dynamics of human vulnerability is then mapped at the household level, according to the characteristics of the flood hazard. Three key components of human vulnerability have been identified and are integrated to CADYRI: 1, the intrinsic vulnerability of the population, estimated by specific socio-economic indicators; 2, the vulnerability of buildings, assessed by their structural features; 3, the vulnerability of

New information on high risk breast screening

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Riedl, C.C.; Ponhold, L.; Gruber, R.; Pinker, K.; Helbich, T.H.

2010-01-01

Women with an elevated risk for breast cancer require intensified screening beginning at an early age. Such high risk screening differs considerably from screening in the general population. After an expert has evaluated the exact risk a breast MRI examination should be offered at least once a year and beginning latest at the age of 30 depending on the patients risk category. Complementary mammograms should not be performed before the age of 35. An additional ultrasound examination is no longer recommended. To ensure a high sensitivity and specificity high risk screening should be performed only at a nationally or regionally approved and audited service. Adequate knowledge about the phenotypical characteristics of familial breast cancer is essential. Besides the common malignant phenotypes, benign morphologies (round or oval shape and smooth margins) as well as a low prevalence of calcifications have been described. Using MRI benign contrast media kinetics as well as non-solid lesions with focal, regional and segmental enhancement can often be visualized. (orig.) [de

Spatio-temporal earthquake risk assessment for the Lisbon Metropolitan Area - A contribution to improving standard methods of population exposure and vulnerability analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Freire, Sérgio; Aubrecht, Christoph

2010-05-01

The recent 7.0 M earthquake that caused severe damage and destruction in parts of Haiti struck close to 5 PM (local time), at a moment when many people were not in their residences, instead being in their workplaces, schools, or churches. Community vulnerability assessment to seismic hazard relying solely on the location and density of resident-based census population, as is commonly the case, would grossly misrepresent the real situation. In particular in the context of global (climate) change, risk analysis is a research field increasingly gaining in importance whereas risk is usually defined as a function of hazard probability and vulnerability. Assessment and mapping of human vulnerability has however generally been lagging behind hazard analysis efforts. Central to the concept of vulnerability is the issue of human exposure. Analysis of exposure is often spatially tied to administrative units or reference objects such as buildings, spanning scales from the regional level to local studies for small areas. Due to human activities and mobility, the spatial distribution of population is time-dependent, especially in metropolitan areas. Accurately estimating population exposure is a key component of catastrophe loss modeling, one element of effective risk analysis and emergency management. Therefore, accounting for the spatio-temporal dynamics of human vulnerability correlates with recent recommendations to improve vulnerability analyses. Earthquakes are the prototype for a major disaster, being low-probability, rapid-onset, high-consequence events. Lisbon, Portugal, is subject to a high risk of earthquake, which can strike at any day and time, as confirmed by modern history (e.g. December 2009). The recently-approved Special Emergency and Civil Protection Plan (PEERS) is based on a Seismic Intensity map, and only contemplates resident population from the census as proxy for human exposure. In the present work we map and analyze the spatio-temporal distribution of

High-Risk and Low-Risk Human Papillomavirus and the Absolute Risk of Cervical Intraepithelial Neoplasia or Cancer

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Thomsen, Louise T; Frederiksen, Kirsten; Munk, Christian

2014-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To determine the absolute risk of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) grade 3 or cervical cancer (CIN 3 or worse) after detection of low-risk human papillomavirus (HPV) and after a negative high-risk HPV test. METHODS: In this prospective cohort study, consecutive liquid......-based cervical cytology samples were collected from women screened for cervical cancer in Copenhagen, Denmark, during 2002-2005. Samples were tested with a clinical test for 13 high-risk and five low-risk HPV types. The cohort (N=35,539; aged 14-90 years) was monitored in a nationwide pathology register for up...... cytology. Detection of low-risk HPV does not predict CIN 3 or worse. Cervical cancer screening should not include testing for low-risk HPV types. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: II....

Effectiveness of intermittent preventive treatment with sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine during pregnancy on placental malaria, maternal anaemia and birthweight in areas with high and low malaria transmission intensity in Tanzania.

Science.gov (United States)

Mosha, Dominic; Chilongola, Jaffu; Ndeserua, Rabi; Mwingira, Felista; Genton, Blaise

2014-09-01

To assess the effectiveness of IPTp in two areas with different malaria transmission intensities. Prospective observational study recruiting pregnant women in two health facilities in areas with high and low malaria transmission intensities. A structured questionnaire was used for interview. Maternal clinic cards and medical logs were assessed to determine drug intake. Placental parasitaemia was screened using both light microscopy and real-time quantitative PCR. Of 350 pregnant women were recruited and screened for placental parasitaemia, 175 from each area. Prevalence of placental parasitaemia was 16.6% (CI 11.4-22.9) in the high transmission area and 2.3% (CI 0.6-5.7) in the low transmission area. Being primigravida and residing in a high transmission area were significant risk factors for placental malaria (OR 2.4; CI 1.1-5.0; P = 0.025) and (OR 9.4; CI 3.2-27.7; P anaemia or low birthweight, regardless of transmission intensity. The number needed to treat (NNT) was four (CI 2-6) women in the high transmission area and 33 (20-50) in the low transmission area to prevent one case of placental malaria. IPTp may have an effect on lowering the risk of placental malaria in areas of high transmission, but this effect did not translate into a benefit on risks of maternal anaemia or low birthweight. The NNT needs to be considered, and weighted against that of other protective measures, eventually targeting areas which are above a certain threshold of malaria transmission to maximise the benefit. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Human Health Risks Assessment Associated with Polychlorinated Biphenyls (PCBs) in Soil from Different Contaminated Areas of Mexico.

Science.gov (United States)

Pérez-Maldonado, Iván N; Ochoa Martínez, Ángeles C; Ruíz-Vera, Tania; Orta-García, Sandra T; Varela-Silva, José A

2017-09-01

Recent studies have documented environmental contamination by PCBs in soil from different areas in Mexico (industrial, mining, and urban sites). However, the real significance of that soil contamination has not been established. Therefore, the aim of this study was to perform a human health risk assessment (Monte Carlos simulation) to evaluate the probable toxic effects of soils contaminated with PCBs on children in four sites in Mexico. A high non-carcinogenic risk (total nHQ = 1.1E+01; if nHQ ≥1, hazardous health effects cannot be ruled out) was found in Alpuyeca, Morelos, Mexico. Moreover, the total CR (cancer risk) found in Alpuyeca, Morelos is of concern (total CR = 5.1E-03), being that a cut-point of 1.0E-06 has been suggested as a safe level for cancer risk. Taking into consideration the data shown in this research, we conclude that a strategy to protect human health is necessary for the assessed sites.

Information support of monitoring of technical condition of buildings in construction risk area

Science.gov (United States)

Skachkova, M. E.; Lepihina, O. Y.; Ignatova, V. V.

2018-05-01

The paper presents the results of the research devoted to the development of a model of information support of monitoring buildings technical condition; these buildings are located in the construction risk area. As a result of the visual and instrumental survey, as well as the analysis of existing approaches and techniques, attributive and cartographic databases have been created. These databases allow monitoring defects and damages of buildings located in a 30-meter risk area from the object under construction. The classification of structures and defects of these buildings under survey is presented. The functional capabilities of the developed model and the field of it practical applications are determined.

Risk score predicts high-grade prostate cancer in DNA-methylation positive, histopathologically negative biopsies.

Science.gov (United States)

Van Neste, Leander; Partin, Alan W; Stewart, Grant D; Epstein, Jonathan I; Harrison, David J; Van Criekinge, Wim

2016-09-01

Prostate cancer (PCa) diagnosis is challenging because efforts for effective, timely treatment of men with significant cancer typically result in over-diagnosis and repeat biopsies. The presence or absence of epigenetic aberrations, more specifically DNA-methylation of GSTP1, RASSF1, and APC in histopathologically negative prostate core biopsies has resulted in an increased negative predictive value (NPV) of ∼90% and thus could lead to a reduction of unnecessary repeat biopsies. Here, it is investigated whether, in methylation-positive men, DNA-methylation intensities could help to identify those men harboring high-grade (Gleason score ≥7) PCa, resulting in an improved positive predictive value. Two cohorts, consisting of men with histopathologically negative index biopsies, followed by a positive or negative repeat biopsy, were combined. EpiScore, a methylation intensity algorithm was developed in methylation-positive men, using area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic as metric for performance. Next, a risk score was developed combining EpiScore with traditional clinical risk factors to further improve the identification of high-grade (Gleason Score ≥7) cancer. Compared to other risk factors, detection of DNA-methylation in histopathologically negative biopsies was the most significant and important predictor of high-grade cancer, resulting in a NPV of 96%. In methylation-positive men, EpiScore was significantly higher for those with high-grade cancer detected upon repeat biopsy, compared to those with either no or low-grade cancer. The risk score resulted in further improvement of patient risk stratification and was a significantly better predictor compared to currently used metrics as PSA and the prostate cancer prevention trial (PCPT) risk calculator (RC). A decision curve analysis indicated strong clinical utility for the risk score as decision-making tool for repeat biopsy. Low DNA-methylation levels in PCa-negative biopsies led

Assessment of risk due to vehicle accident for the plutonium solution transfer from H-area to F-area

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sarrack, A.G.

1996-09-01

Transporting radioactive material onsite (intrasite transfers) via truck or train must be performed in a safe manner. Adequate safety is assured for each transfer, as documented in the corresponding Onsite Safety Assessment (OSA). One aspect of the OSA is to show that the package to be used for the transfer meets onsite acceptance criteria. The activity being analyzed in this report is the movement of plutonium solution with greater than 20 curies, all reasonable mitigative controls will be implemented to minimize the likelihood of an accidental release, and a probabilistic analysis will be used to evaluate the risk associated with the move. The purpose of this report is to document the evaluation of risk due to vehicle accident associated with transporting plutonium solution from H-area to F-area. Included in the report is a list of the required mitigative controls which reduce the predicted accident and release frequencies to those reported in the summary

Risk Assessment of Canine Distemper in the Distribution Area of Giant Panda in Sichuan, Shaanxi and Gansu Provinces, China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Weigeng Shao

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Giant panda is the world-class precious endangered species, facing the canine distemper and other important infectious diseases on its wild and captive population of a serious threat. In this study, we used MaxEnt model and combined with ArcGIS analysis to predict the potential risk of canine distemper to giant panda habitat in Sichuan, Gansu and Shaanxi Provinces, China. The results showed that 35.05% and 19.47% of the distribution areas of the giant pandas were in the high risk and medium risk of canine distemper, respectively. The canine distemper pose a great risk to the healthy survival of giant pandas in China. In future, epidemic prevention, vaccine development and application of wild animals should be enhanced so as to effectively protect the giant panda.

Movement recognition technology as a method of assessing spontaneous general movements in high risk infants

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Claire eMarcroft

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Preterm birth is associated with increased risks of neurological and motor impairments such as cerebral palsy. The risks are highest in those born at the lowest gestations. Early identification of those most at risk is challenging meaning that a critical window of opportunity to improve outcomes through therapy-based interventions may be missed. Clinically, the assessment of spontaneous general movements is an important tool which can be used for the prediction of movement impairments in high risk infants.Movement recognition aims to capture and analyze relevant limb movements through computerized approaches focusing on continuous, objective, and quantitative assessment. Different methods of recording and analyzing infant movements have recently been explored in high risk infants. These range from camera-based solutions to body-worn miniaturized movement sensors used to record continuous time-series data that represent the dynamics of limb movements. Various machine learning methods have been developed and applied to the analysis of the recorded movement data. This analysis has focused on the detection and classification of atypical spontaneous general movements. This paper aims to identify recent translational studies using movement recognition technology as a method of assessing movement in high risk infants. The application of this technology within pediatric practice represents a growing area of inter-disciplinary collaboration which may lead to a greater understanding of the development of the nervous system in infants at high risk of motor impairment.

Using Arc GIS to analyse urban growth towards torrent risk areas (Aswan city as a case study)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hamdy, Omar; Zhao, Shichen; Salheen, Mohamed A; Eid, Y Y

2014-01-01

Areas suffering from storm water drains are considered to be the places most at risk, water torrents have an effect on urban areas and can cause a lot of damage to buildings and infrastructure. Moreover, there is dangerous situation whereby urban growth is occuring towards at-risk areas. The urban growth rate in risk areas rose up to 24.9% in 2001, and reached 48.8% in 2013. Urban growth in ''Abouelreesh'' village had been influenced by the construction of larger buildings, because most people were looking forward to live in bigger houses. We can discover the previous problem by observing the average size increase of the buildings' areas from 2001 until 2013, especially in risky areas where the average building's area had grown from 254 m2 in 2001 to 411 m2 in 2013. This Phenomenon is considered to be very important factor which attracts the urban growth towards the risky areas in spite of the danger surrounding them

Zonation of High Disaster Potential Communities for Remote Mountainous Areas in Southern Taiwan

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Yie-Ruey; Tsai, Kuang-Jung; Chang, Chwen-Ming; Chen, Jing-Wen; Chiang, Jie-Lun; Lu, Yi-Ching; Tsai, Hui-Wen

2017-04-01

About three-quarters of Taiwan are covered by hillside areas. Most of the hillside regions in Taiwan are sedimentary and metamorphic rocks which are fragile and highly weathered. In recent years, human development coupled with the global impact of extreme weather, typhoons and heavy rains have caused the landslide disasters and leaded to human causalities and properties loss. The landslides also endanger the major public works and almost make the overall industrial economic development and transport path overshadowed by disasters. Therefore, this research assesses the exploration of landslide potential analysis and zonation of high disaster potential communities for remote mountainous areas in southern Taiwan. In this study, the time series of disaster records and land change of remote mountainous areas in southern Taiwan are collected using techniques of interpretation from satellite images corresponding to multi-year and multi-rainfall events. To quantify the slope hazards, we adopt statistical analysis model to analyze massive data of slope disasters and explore the variance, difference and trend of influence factors of hillside disaster; establish the disaster potential analysis model under the climate change and construct the threshold of disaster. Through analysis results of disaster potential assessment, the settlement distribution with high-risk hazard potential of study area is drawn with geographic information system. Results of image classification show that the values of coefficient of agreement for different time periods are at high level. Compared with the historical disaster records of research areas, the accuracy of predicted landslide potential is in reasonable confidence level. The spatial distribution of landslide depends on the interaction of rainfall patterns, slope and elevation of the research area. The results also show that the number and scale of secondary landslide sites are much larger than those of new landslide sites after rainfall

Tourism sector preparedness in zones with a high seismic risk: Case study of the Capital Region of Japan

Science.gov (United States)

Lihui, W.; Wang, D.

2017-12-01

Japan is a country highly vulnerable to natural disasters, especially earthquakes. Tourism, as a strategic industry in Japan, is especially vulnerable to destructive earthquake disasters owing to the characteristics of vulnerability, sensitivity and substitutability. Here we aim to provide theoretical understanding of the perception and responses of tourism managers towards damaging disasters in tourism destinations with high seismic risks. We conducted surveys among the mangers of tourism businesses in the capital area of Japan in 2014 and applied structural equation modeling techniques to empirically test the proposed model with four latent variables, which are risk perception, threat knowledge, disaster preparedness and earthquake preparedness. Our results show that threat knowledge affects risk perception and disaster preparedness positively. In addition, disaster preparedness positively affects earthquake preparedness. However, the proposed paths from risk perception to disaster preparedness, risk perception to earthquake preparedness, and threat knowledge to earthquake preparedness were not statistically significant. Our results may provide references for policymakers in promoting crisis planning in tourism destination with high seismic risks.

Mapping of risk prone areas of kala-azar (Visceral leishmaniasis) in parts of Bihar State, India: an RS and GIS approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Sudhakar, S; Srinivas, T; Palit, A; Kar, S K; Battacharya, S K

2006-09-01

The kala-azar fever (Visceral leishmaniasis) is continuing unabated in India for over a century, now being largely confined to the eastern part of India mainly in Bihar state and to some extent in its bordering states like West Bengal and Uttar Pradesh. Two study sites namely Patepur block in Vaishali district with high endemicity in northern part and Lohardagga block in Lohardagga district with absolute non-endemicity in southern part of Bihar were selected for the study with the following objectives : (i) to study the macro-ecosystem in relation to distribution of vector -Phlebotomus argentipes; (ii) to identify/map the risk prone areas or villages in a block for quick remedial measures; and (iii) to make use of satellite remote sensing and GIS to demonstrate the utility for rapid assessment of landuse/landcover and their relation with the incidence of kalaazar leading to the mapping of risk prone areas. Indian Remote Sensing (IRS)-1D LISS III satellite data for the periods of March and November 2000 were analysed in Silicon graphic image processing system using ERDAS software. False color composites (FCC) were generated and landuse/landcover was assessed using Maximum likelihood supervised classification techniques based on ground truth training sets. During the study the GIS functions are used to quantify the remotely sensed landscape proportions of 5 km2 buffer surrounding each known group of villages of high occurrence of sandflies in endemic and nonendemic study sites. Instead of traditional ground based survey methods to vector surveillance, the present study used a combination of remote sensing (RS) and geographical information system (GIS) approach to develop landscape predictors of sandfly abundance-an indicator of human vector contact and as a measure of risk prone areas. Statistical analysis using the remotely sensed landscape variables showed that rural villages surrounded by higher proportion of transitional swamps with soft stemmed edible plants and

Risk Mapping and Situational Analysis of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis in an Endemic Area of Central Iran: A GIS-Based Survey.

Science.gov (United States)

Abedi-Astaneh, Fatemeh; Hajjaran, Homa; Yaghoobi-Ershadi, Mohammad Reza; Hanafi-Bojd, Ahmad Ali; Mohebali, Mehdi; Shirzadi, Mohammad Reza; Rassi, Yavar; Akhavan, Amir Ahmad; Mahmoudi, Bagher

2016-01-01

Cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) is among the top 10 infectious disease priorities in the world, and the leading cause of morbidity in Iran. The present study was conducted to assess the risk of CL, and to determine some epidemiological features of the disease in endemic areas of Qom Province in Central Iran during 2009 to 2013. Data regarding human cases of the disease were obtained from the Qom Province Health Center, prepared and stored in a spatial database created in ArcGIS10.3. A total of 9 out of 212 Leishmania spp. positive slides taken in 2013 from patients residing in Qom city were examined using molecular methods and the species of Leishmania was identified by PCR-RFLP. Those 9 patients had no history of travel outside the city. Spatial analysis and clustering methods were applied to find major hot spots and susceptible areas for the establishment of novel foci of the disease. Transmission patterns were examined for spatial autocorrelation using the Moran's I statistical application, and for the clustering of high or low values using the Getis-Ord Gi* statistics. During the period of study, a total of 1767 CL cases were passively reported in the area, out of which were 65% males and 35% females. The highest and lowest numbers of cases were reported in 2010 and 2013, respectively. Importantly, 979 cases were reported from urban areas, while the remainder came from rural areas. Leishmania major was detected as the causative agent of CL in the city of Qom. Remarkably, most patients recorded in Qom city were associated with a history of travel to the endemic areas of CL within the province, or to other endemic areas of the disease in Iran. Spatial distribution of CL cases revealed northeastern and southwestern quarters of the city were the major hot spots of the disease (P<0.05). Hot spot and CL transmission risk analysis across the province indicated that more than 40 villages were located in high and very high risk areas of CL transmission. Due to the

Assessing the landscape context and conversion risk of protected areas using satellite data products

Science.gov (United States)

Svancara, Leona K.; Scott, J.M.; Loveland, Thomas R.; Pidgorna, Anna

2009-01-01

Since the establishment of the first national park (Yellowstone National Park in 1872) and the first wildlife refuge (Pelican Island in 1903), dramatic changes have occurred in both ecological and cultural landscapes across the U.S. The ability of these protected areas to maintain current levels of biodiversity depend, at least in part, on the integrity of the surrounding landscape. Our objective was to quantify and compare the extent and pattern of natural land cover, risk of conversion, and relationships with demographic and economic variables in counties near National Park Service units and U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service refuges with those counties distant from either type of protected area in the coterminous United States. Our results indicate that landscapes in counties within 10 km of both parks and refuges and those within 10 km of just parks were more natural, more intact, and more protected than those in counties within 10 km of just refuges and counties greater than 10 km from either protected area system. However, they also had greater human population density and change in population, indicating potential conversion risk since the percent of landscape protected averaged  2) in 76% of counties near both parks and refuges, 81% of counties near just parks, 91% of counties near just refuges, and 93% of distant counties. Thirteen percent of counties in the coterminous U.S. had moderate to high amounts of natural land cover (> 60%), low protection ( 20%). Although these areas are not the most critically endangered, they represent the greatest conservation opportunity, need, and urgency. Our approach is based on national level metrics that are simple, general, informative, and can be understood by broad audiences and by policy makers and managers to assess the health of lands surrounding parks and refuges. Regular monitoring of these metrics with satellite data products in counties surrounding protected areas provides a consistent, national level

Breast Density and Benign Breast Disease: Risk Assessment to Identify Women at High Risk of Breast Cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Tice, Jeffrey A; Miglioretti, Diana L; Li, Chin-Shang; Vachon, Celine M; Gard, Charlotte C; Kerlikowske, Karla

2015-10-01

Women with proliferative breast lesions are candidates for primary prevention, but few risk models incorporate benign findings to assess breast cancer risk. We incorporated benign breast disease (BBD) diagnoses into the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium (BCSC) risk model, the only breast cancer risk assessment tool that uses breast density. We developed and validated a competing-risk model using 2000 to 2010 SEER data for breast cancer incidence and 2010 vital statistics to adjust for the competing risk of death. We used Cox proportional hazards regression to estimate the relative hazards for age, race/ethnicity, family history of breast cancer, history of breast biopsy, BBD diagnoses, and breast density in the BCSC. We included 1,135,977 women age 35 to 74 years undergoing mammography with no history of breast cancer; 17% of the women had a prior breast biopsy. During a mean follow-up of 6.9 years, 17,908 women were diagnosed with invasive breast cancer. The BCSC BBD model slightly overpredicted risk (expected-to-observed ratio, 1.04; 95% CI, 1.03 to 1.06) and had modest discriminatory accuracy (area under the receiver operator characteristic curve, 0.665). Among women with proliferative findings, adding BBD to the model increased the proportion of women with an estimated 5-year risk of 3% or higher from 9.3% to 27.8% (P<.001). The BCSC BBD model accurately estimates women's risk for breast cancer using breast density and BBD diagnoses. Greater numbers of high-risk women eligible for primary prevention after BBD diagnosis are identified using the BCSC BBD model. © 2015 by American Society of Clinical Oncology.

High-surface-area active carbon

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

O'Grady, T.M.; Wennerberg, A.N.

1986-01-01

This paper describes the preparation and properties of a unique active carbon having exceptionally high surface areas, over 2500 m 2 /gm, and extraordinary adsorptive capacities. The carbon is made by a direct chemical activation route in which petroleum coke or other carbonaceous sources are reacted with excess potassium hydroxide at 400 0 to 500 0 C to an intermediate product that is subsequently pyrolyzed at 800 0 to 900 0 C to active carbon containing potassium salts. These are removed by water washing and the carbon is dried to produce a powdered product. A granular carbon can also be made by further processing the powdered carbon by using specialized granulation techniques. Typical properties of the carbon include Iodine Numbers of 3000 to 3600, methylene blue adsorption of 650 to 750 mg/gm, pore volumes of 2.0 to 2.6 cc/gm and less than 3.0% ash. This carbon's high adsorption capacities make it uniquely suited for numerous demanding applications in the medical area, purifications, removal of toxic substances, as catalyst carriers, etc

Area and volumetric density estimation in processed full-field digital mammograms for risk assessment of breast cancer.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Abbas Cheddad

Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: Mammographic density, the white radiolucent part of a mammogram, is a marker of breast cancer risk and mammographic sensitivity. There are several means of measuring mammographic density, among which are area-based and volumetric-based approaches. Current volumetric methods use only unprocessed, raw mammograms, which is a problematic restriction since such raw mammograms are normally not stored. We describe fully automated methods for measuring both area and volumetric mammographic density from processed images. METHODS: The data set used in this study comprises raw and processed images of the same view from 1462 women. We developed two algorithms for processed images, an automated area-based approach (CASAM-Area and a volumetric-based approach (CASAM-Vol. The latter method was based on training a random forest prediction model with image statistical features as predictors, against a volumetric measure, Volpara, for corresponding raw images. We contrast the three methods, CASAM-Area, CASAM-Vol and Volpara directly and in terms of association with breast cancer risk and a known genetic variant for mammographic density and breast cancer, rs10995190 in the gene ZNF365. Associations with breast cancer risk were evaluated using images from 47 breast cancer cases and 1011 control subjects. The genetic association analysis was based on 1011 control subjects. RESULTS: All three measures of mammographic density were associated with breast cancer risk and rs10995190 (p0.10 for risk, p>0.03 for rs10995190. CONCLUSIONS: Our results show that it is possible to obtain reliable automated measures of volumetric and area mammographic density from processed digital images. Area and volumetric measures of density on processed digital images performed similar in terms of risk and genetic association.

Area-to-Area Poisson Kriging and Spatial Bayesian Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Asmarian, Naeimehossadat; Jafari-Koshki, Tohid; Soleimani, Ali; Taghi Ayatollahi, Seyyed Mohammad

2016-10-01

Background: In many countries gastric cancer has the highest incidence among the gastrointestinal cancers and is the second most common cancer in Iran. The aim of this study was to identify and map high risk gastric cancer regions at the county-level in Iran. Methods: In this study we analyzed gastric cancer data for Iran in the years 2003-2010. Areato- area Poisson kriging and Besag, York and Mollie (BYM) spatial models were applied to smoothing the standardized incidence ratios of gastric cancer for the 373 counties surveyed in this study. The two methods were compared in term of accuracy and precision in identifying high risk regions. Result: The highest smoothed standardized incidence rate (SIR) according to area-to-area Poisson kriging was in Meshkinshahr county in Ardabil province in north-western Iran (2.4,SD=0.05), while the highest smoothed standardized incidence rate (SIR) according to the BYM model was in Ardabil, the capital of that province (2.9,SD=0.09). Conclusion: Both methods of mapping, ATA Poisson kriging and BYM, showed the gastric cancer incidence rate to be highest in north and north-west Iran. However, area-to-area Poisson kriging was more precise than the BYM model and required less smoothing. According to the results obtained, preventive measures and treatment programs should be focused on particular counties of Iran. Creative Commons Attribution License

Renal transplantation in high cardiovascular risk patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Bittar, Julio; Arenas, Paula; Chiurchiu, Carlos; de la Fuente, Jorge; de Arteaga, Javier; Douthat, Walter; Massari, Pablo U

2009-10-01

Current transplant success allows recipients with previous contraindications to transplant to have access to this procedure with more frequency and safety. The concept of high-risk patient has changed since the first stages of transplantation. In the first studies, the high-risk concept was based on probability of early graft failure or on a patient's clinical condition to cope with high perioperatory morbimortality. Later on, this concept implied immunological factors that were crucial to ensure transplant success because hypersensitized or polytransfused patients experienced a higher risk of acute rejection and subsequent graft loss. Afterward, the presence of various comorbidities would redefine the high-risk concept for renal transplant mainly considering recipient's clinical aspects. Currently, the change in epidemiological characteristics of patients starting dialysis causes that we now deal with a greater increase of elderly patients, diabetic patients, and patients with history of cardiovascular disease. Today, high-risk patients are those with clinical features that predict an increase in the risk of perioperative morbimortality or death with functioning graft. In this review, we will attempted to analyze currents results of renal transplant outcomes in terms of patients and graft survival in elderly patients, diabetic patients, and patients with previous cardiovascular disease from the most recent experiences in the literature and from experiences in our center. In any of the groups previously analyzed, survival offered by renal transplant is significantly higher compared to dialysis. Besides, these patients are the recipient group that benefit the most with the transplant because their mortality while remaining on dialysis is extremely high. Hence, renal transplantation should be offered more frequently to older patients, diabetic patients, and patients with pretransplant cardiac and peripheral vascular disease. A positive attitude toward renal

Thermal extremes mortality risk assessment in urban areas

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Paulo Canário

2010-06-01

Full Text Available The impact of heat waves on mortality has been the subject of numerous studies and the focus of attention of various national and international governmental bodies. In the summer of 2003 alone, which was exceptionally hot, the number of deaths in 12 European countries increased by 70,000. The overall trend of warming will lead to an increase in frequency, duration and intensity of heat waves and to an increase in heat related mortality. The need to assess the risk of death due to extreme heat, at a detailed spatial scale, has determined the implementation of a research project based on a general model of risk for potentially destructive natural phenomena; the model uses the relationship between hazard and vulnerability and was designed primarily for urban areas. The major hazardous meteorological variables are those that determine the thermal complex (air temperature, radiative temperature, wind and humidity and the variables related to air quality (mainly ozone and Particulate matter. Vulnerability takes into account the population sensitivity (at various spatial scales and their exposure to thermal extremes.

Assessment of environmental and health risks in former polymetallic ore mining and smelting area, Slovakia: Spatial distribution and accumulation of mercury in four different ecosystems.

Science.gov (United States)

Árvay, Július; Demková, Lenka; Hauptvogl, Martin; Michalko, Miloslav; Bajčan, Daniel; Stanovič, Radovan; Tomáš, Ján; Hrstková, Miroslava; Trebichalský, Pavol

2017-10-01

Former long-term mining and smelting of pollymetallic ores in the Middle Spiš area caused a serious contamination problem of the environment with heavy metals and metalloids, especially mercury (Hg). Several studies have reported concentration of Hg in the area but this paper provides first detailed characterization of Hg contamination of different environmental components in agricultural, forest, grassland and urban ecosystems. The ecosystems are in different distances from emission sources - former mercury and copper smelting plants in NE Slovakia. Total Hg content was studied in soil/substrate samples (n = 234) and characteristic biological samples (Athyrium filix-femina (L.) Roth, Macrolepiota procera (Scop.) Singer, Boletus edulis Bull., Cyanoboletus pulverulentus (Opat.) Gelardi, Vizzini & Simonini, Triticum aestivum (L.), Poa pratensis (L.)) (n = 234) collected in the above-mentioned ecosystems. The level of contamination and environmental risks were assessed by contamination factor (C f ), index of geoaccumulation (I geo ) and potential environmental risk index (PER). To determine the level of transition of Hg from abiotic to biotic environment, bioconcentration factor (BCF) was used. To determine a health risk resulting from regular and long-term consumption of the locally available species, the results of the Hg content were compared with the Provisional Tolerable Weekly Intake (PTWI) for Hg defined by World Health Organization. The results suggest that almost 63% of the area belong to the very high risk category and 80% of the sampling sites shown very high contamination factor. Geoaccumulation index showed that almost 30% of the area is very strongly contaminated and only 8% is not contaminated with Hg. Spearman's correlation relationship confirmed that the values of PER, BCF, C f and I geo decreased with an increasing distance from the pollution source. The percentage of contribution to PTWI ranged between 5.76-69.0% for adults and 11.5-138% for

Anemia and nutritional status of schoolchildren living at Saudi high altitude area

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Abou-Zeid, Alaa H.; Abdel-Fattah, Moataz M.; Hifnawy, Tamer M.; Al-Hassan, Sir-Alkhatima A.; A-Shehri, Abdul Salam A.

2006-01-01

To estimate the prevalence and possible risk factors for anemia and abnormal anthropometric measurements among schoolchildren in Al-Hada Area, Taif, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. We conducted the study between January and April, 2005 at Al-Hada area. A nested case-control study was conducted to estimate risk factors for anemia and abnormal anthropometric measurements. From 5 schools, 513 students were recruited. The mean hemoglobin concentration was 13.4+/-0.9 g/dL, while the prevalence of anemia was 11.6% and 15.5% based on hemoglobin and hematocrit values. At the same time, underweight affected 14.2% of the students, and stunting affected 12.2%. Moreover, 9.8% of the students were obese and 13.8% suffered from wasting. Most of the victims of anemia and erroneous anthropometric measurements were females, except for wasting which was more prevalent among males. Anemia is highly prevalent among these schoolchildren, which is seriously affecting the growth of 6-14 year-old children. Similarly, malnutrition seems to be a significant health problem among those children as estimated by anthropometric measurements, where all forms of abnormal body measurements affected at least 9.8% of the studied group. An in-depth investigation of the etiological factors of iron deficiency and malnutrition is urgently needed, and suitable nutrition-education and iron supplementation programs are recommended. (author)

Specialized surveillance for individuals at high risk for melanoma: a cost analysis of a high-risk clinic.

Science.gov (United States)

Watts, Caroline G; Cust, Anne E; Menzies, Scott W; Coates, Elliot; Mann, Graham J; Morton, Rachael L

2015-02-01

Regular surveillance of individuals at high risk for cutaneous melanoma improves early detection and reduces unnecessary excisions; however, a cost analysis of this specialized service has not been undertaken. To determine the mean cost per patient of surveillance in a high-risk clinic from the health service and societal perspectives. We used a bottom-up microcosting method to measure resource use in a consecutive sample of 102 patients treated in a high-risk hospital-based clinic in Australia during a 12-month period. Surveillance and treatment of melanoma. All surveillance and treatment procedures were identified through direct observation, review of medical records, and interviews with staff and were valued using scheduled fees from the Australian government. Societal costs included transportation and loss of productivity. The mean number of clinic visits per year was 2.7 (95% CI, 2.5-2.8) for surveillance and 3.8 (95% CI, 3.4-4.1) for patients requiring surgical excisions. The mean annual cost per patient to the health system was A $882 (95% CI, A $783-$982) (US $599 [95% CI, US $532-$665]); the cost discounted across 20 years was A $11,546 (95% CI, A $10,263-$12,829) (US $7839 [95% CI, US $6969-$8710]). The mean annual societal cost per patient (excluding health system costs) was A $972 (95% CI, A $899-$1045) (US $660 [95% CI, US $611-$710]); the cost discounted across 20 years was A $12,721 (95% CI, A $12,554-$14,463) (US $8637 [95% CI, US $8523-$9820]). Diagnosis of melanoma or nonmelanoma skin cancer and frequent excisions for benign lesions in a relatively small number of patients was responsible for positively skewed health system costs. Microcosting techniques provide an accurate cost estimate for the provision of a specialized service. The high societal cost reflects the time that patients are willing to invest to attend the high-risk clinic. This alternative model of care for a high-risk population has relevance for decision making about health policy.

Hot food and beverage consumption and the risk of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma: A case-control study in a northwest area in China.

Science.gov (United States)

Tai, Wei-Ping; Nie, Guo-Ji; Chen, Meng-Jie; Yaz, Tajigul Yiminni; Guli, Arzi; Wuxur, Arzigul; Huang, Qing-Qing; Lin, Zhi-Gang; Wu, Jing

2017-12-01

This study was trying to investigate the association of hot food and beverage consumption and the risk of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma in Hotan, a northwest area of China with high risk of esophageal squmous cell carcinoma. A population-based case-control study was designed. For the study, 167 patients diagnosed with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma were selected from Hotan during 2014 to 2015, and 167 community-based controls were selected from the same area, matched with age and sex. Information involved of temperature of food and beverage intake was obtained by face-to-face interview. Logistic regression analyses were performed to investigate the association between temperature of food and beverage intake and the risk of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma. The temperature of the food and beverage consumed by the esophageal squamous cell carcinoma patients was significantly higher than the controls. High temperature of tea, water, and food intake significantly increased the risk of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma by more than 2-fold, with adjusted odds ratio 2.23 (1.45-2.90), 2.13 (1.53-2.66), and 2.98 (1.89-4.12). Intake of food and beverage with high temperature was positively associated with the incidence of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma in Northwestern China. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. All rights reserved.

Spatial Variability of Geriatric Depression Risk in a High-Density City: A Data-Driven Socio-Environmental Vulnerability Mapping Approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Ho, Hung Chak; Lau, Kevin Ka-Lun; Yu, Ruby; Wang, Dan; Woo, Jean; Kwok, Timothy Chi Yui; Ng, Edward

2017-08-31

Previous studies found a relationship between geriatric depression and social deprivation. However, most studies did not include environmental factors in the statistical models, introducing a bias to estimate geriatric depression risk because the urban environment was found to have significant associations with mental health. We developed a cross-sectional study with a binomial logistic regression to examine the geriatric depression risk of a high-density city based on five social vulnerability factors and four environmental measures. We constructed a socio-environmental vulnerability index by including the significant variables to map the geriatric depression risk in Hong Kong, a high-density city characterized by compact urban environment and high-rise buildings. Crude and adjusted odds ratios (ORs) of the variables were significantly different, indicating that both social and environmental variables should be included as confounding factors. For the comprehensive model controlled by all confounding factors, older adults who were of lower education had the highest geriatric depression risks (OR: 1.60 (1.21, 2.12)). Higher percentage of residential area and greater variation in building height within the neighborhood also contributed to geriatric depression risk in Hong Kong, while average building height had negative association with geriatric depression risk. In addition, the socio-environmental vulnerability index showed that higher scores were associated with higher geriatric depression risk at neighborhood scale. The results of mapping and cross-section model suggested that geriatric depression risk was associated with a compact living environment with low socio-economic conditions in historical urban areas in Hong Kong. In conclusion, our study found a significant difference in geriatric depression risk between unadjusted and adjusted models, suggesting the importance of including environmental factors in estimating geriatric depression risk. We also

Physical activity barriers and motivators among high-risk employees.

Science.gov (United States)

Paguntalan, John C; Gregoski, Mathew

2016-11-22

Worksite wellness programs offer an ideal setting to target high-risk sedentary workers to improve health status. Lack of physical activity is associated with increased risk for coronary heart disease and mortality. Despite the risks, the number of sedentary workers is increasing. This study examined the perceived barriers and motivators for physical activity among employees at high-risk for coronary heart disease. A purposive sample of 24 high-risk workers participating in a wellness program in rural South Carolina were enrolled in the study. Qualitative data was obtained through semi-structured face-to-face interviews. Grounded theory was used to analyze qualitative data, and identify overarching themes. Physical limitations due to pain and weakness, lack of motivation, and lack of time emerged as the main barriers to physical activity. Family relationships were reported as the strongest motivator along with social support and potential health benefits. Findings highlight the unique experience of high-risk workers with physical activity. The findingsunderscore the need to design and implement effective interventions specifically designed to meet the needs of high-risk employees.

High-risk regions and outbreak modelling of tularemia in humans.

Science.gov (United States)

Desvars-Larrive, A; Liu, X; Hjertqvist, M; Sjöstedt, A; Johansson, A; Rydén, P

2017-02-01

Sweden reports large and variable numbers of human tularemia cases, but the high-risk regions are anecdotally defined and factors explaining annual variations are poorly understood. Here, high-risk regions were identified by spatial cluster analysis on disease surveillance data for 1984-2012. Negative binomial regression with five previously validated predictors (including predicted mosquito abundance and predictors based on local weather data) was used to model the annual number of tularemia cases within the high-risk regions. Seven high-risk regions were identified with annual incidences of 3·8-44 cases/100 000 inhabitants, accounting for 56·4% of the tularemia cases but only 9·3% of Sweden's population. For all high-risk regions, most cases occurred between July and September. The regression models explained the annual variation of tularemia cases within most high-risk regions and discriminated between years with and without outbreaks. In conclusion, tularemia in Sweden is concentrated in a few high-risk regions and shows high annual and seasonal variations. We present reproducible methods for identifying tularemia high-risk regions and modelling tularemia cases within these regions. The results may help health authorities to target populations at risk and lay the foundation for developing an early warning system for outbreaks.

The Very High Background Radiation Area in Ramsar, Iran: Public Health Risk or Signal for a Regulatory Paradigm Shift?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Karam, P. Andrew [Univ. of Rochester, Rochester, NY (United States); Mortazavi, S.M. Javad [Rafsanjan Univ. of Medical Sciences (Iran, Islamic Republic of). Medical Physics Dept.

2001-07-01

Ramsar, a city on the Caspian Sea in northern Iran hosts the highest measured natural background radiation levels in the world. These are due to the local geology and hydrogeology and, in some places, deliver radiation doses far in excess of those recommended for radiation workers. A population of about 2000 is exposed to average annual radiation levels of 10.2 mGy/yr and the highest recorded doses are about 260 mGy/yr. These high radiation levels are due to the deposition of {sup 226}Ra in local rocks and, because these rocks are used in the construction of many local houses, interior radiation levels are often similar to those found outside. The presence of areas such as Ramsar raises an interesting public health policy question: Is it necessary to relocate the inhabitants to areas of lower natural background radiation levels in the interests of public health? According to the linear, no-threshold (LNT) hypothesis, there is no doubt that relocating the population of Ramsar will result in a reduction in cancer incidence. Therefore, under any reasonable policy based on the LNT hypothesis, the public health is best served by relocating many of Ramsar's inhabitants to other areas along the Caspian Sea. At present, there is no reliable epidemiological data on cancer incidence among the inhabitants of Ramsar's high background radiation areas (HBRAs), but local physicians feel that local cancer incidence rates are lower than in neighboring cities. Furthermore, preliminary results indicate that there is a statistically significant radio adaptation in the inhabitants of Ramsar. Interestingly, it seems that the frequency of chromosome aberrations in the lymphocytes of the inhabitants of Ramsar is no higher than the control areas. This important finding suggests that the cancer rate in Ramsar should be no higher than in other comparable parts of Iran. In other HBRAs such as Yangjiang, China it has been reported that mortality from all cancers and those from

The Very High Background Radiation Area in Ramsar, Iran: Public Health Risk or Signal for a Regulatory Paradigm Shift?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Karam, P. Andrew; Mortazavi, S.M. Javad

2001-01-01

Ramsar, a city on the Caspian Sea in northern Iran hosts the highest measured natural background radiation levels in the world. These are due to the local geology and hydrogeology and, in some places, deliver radiation doses far in excess of those recommended for radiation workers. A population of about 2000 is exposed to average annual radiation levels of 10.2 mGy/yr and the highest recorded doses are about 260 mGy/yr. These high radiation levels are due to the deposition of 226 Ra in local rocks and, because these rocks are used in the construction of many local houses, interior radiation levels are often similar to those found outside. The presence of areas such as Ramsar raises an interesting public health policy question: Is it necessary to relocate the inhabitants to areas of lower natural background radiation levels in the interests of public health? According to the linear, no-threshold (LNT) hypothesis, there is no doubt that relocating the population of Ramsar will result in a reduction in cancer incidence. Therefore, under any reasonable policy based on the LNT hypothesis, the public health is best served by relocating many of Ramsar's inhabitants to other areas along the Caspian Sea. At present, there is no reliable epidemiological data on cancer incidence among the inhabitants of Ramsar's high background radiation areas (HBRAs), but local physicians feel that local cancer incidence rates are lower than in neighboring cities. Furthermore, preliminary results indicate that there is a statistically significant radio adaptation in the inhabitants of Ramsar. Interestingly, it seems that the frequency of chromosome aberrations in the lymphocytes of the inhabitants of Ramsar is no higher than the control areas. This important finding suggests that the cancer rate in Ramsar should be no higher than in other comparable parts of Iran. In other HBRAs such as Yangjiang, China it has been reported that mortality from all cancers and those from leukemia, breast and

Laser prostatectomy in high-risk patients

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tayib, Abdulmalik M.

2008-01-01

Objective was to evaluate the short-term tolerability and outcome of high power green light potassium titanyl phosphate laser prostatectomy in high-risk patients with symptomatic benign prostatic hyperplasia. Eleven high risk operative patients were included in this study at the International Medical Center, Jeddah, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, between January and September 2007. Patients enrolled in this study underwent preoperative and postoperative, cardiac and anesthesia evaluation. Clinical presentations, ultrasound of urinary tract and preoperative laboratory investigation were recorded. All patients underwent high power green light laser prostatectomy using the green light photo vaporization system with setting of 120 watts. The intraoperative and postoperative complications and follow-up were recorded. The patient's age varied between 65-82 years with a mean age of 75.3+-8.6 years old. Seven patients presented with refractory acute urinary retention and 4 patients presented with severe lower urinary tract symptoms. The average prostate volume was 61.22 cc. All patients had uneventful intra- and postoperative course, without the intensive care. The average blood loss was insignificant and only one of the patients required blood transfusion. Foley catheters were removed one day after the procedure. All patients voided satisfactorily after removal of catheter and 8 patients complained of urgency. High power green light laser prostatectomy is a safe and effective method of treating symptomatic benign prostatic hyperplasia in patients with high operative risk. (author)

Quantification of CT images for the classification of high- and low-risk pancreatic cysts

Science.gov (United States)

Gazit, Lior; Chakraborty, Jayasree; Attiyeh, Marc; Langdon-Embry, Liana; Allen, Peter J.; Do, Richard K. G.; Simpson, Amber L.

2017-03-01

Pancreatic cancer is the most lethal cancer with an overall 5-year survival rate of 7%1 due to the late stage at diagnosis and the ineffectiveness of current therapeutic strategies. Given the poor prognosis, early detection at a pre-cancerous stage is the best tool for preventing this disease. Intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMN), cystic tumors of the pancreas, represent the only radiographically identifiable precursor lesion of pancreatic cancer and are known to evolve stepwise from low-to-high-grade dysplasia before progressing into an invasive carcinoma. Observation is usually recommended for low-risk (low- and intermediate-grade dysplasia) patients, while high-risk (high-grade dysplasia and invasive carcinoma) patients undergo resection; hence, patient selection is critically important in the management of pancreatic cysts.2 Radiologists use standard criteria such as main pancreatic duct size, cyst size, or presence of a solid enhancing component in the cyst to optimally select patients for surgery.3 However, these findings are subject to a radiologist's interpretation and have been shown to be inconsistent with regards to the presence of a mural nodule or solid component.4 We propose objective classification of risk groups based on quantitative imaging features extracted from CT scans. We apply new features that represent the solid component (i.e. areas of high intensity) within the cyst and extract standard texture features. An adaptive boost classifier5 achieves the best performance with area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.73 and accuracy of 77.3% for texture features. The random forest classifier achieves the best performance with AUC of 0.71 and accuracy of 70.8% with the solid component features.

Prevalence of Internet addiction and risk of developing addiction as exemplified by a group of Polish adolescents from urban and rural areas

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Beata Pawłowska

2015-02-01

Full Text Available [b]Objective. [/b]The objective of the study was to determine the prevalence of Internet addiction and the risk of developing this addiction in Polish adolescents attending junior high schools and high school in Lublin Province, to indicate the differences regarding the intensity of Internet addiction symptoms, and the types of online activity of adolescents residing in urban and rural areas. [b]Material and Methods[/b]. The examined group comprised 1,860 participants (1,320 girls and 540 boys with an average age of 17 years. 760 students lived in urban areas and 1,100 lived in rural areas. The following were used in the study: the Socio-demographic Questionnaire designed by the authors, the Internet Addiction Questionnaire designed by Potembska, the Internet Addiction Test by Young and the Internet Addiction Questionnaire (Kwestionariusz do Badania Uzależnienia od Internetu – KBUI designed by Pawłowska and Potembska. [b]Results[/b]. The adolescents living in urban areas showed a significantly greater intensity of Internet and computer addiction symptoms measured by the KBUI Questionnaire, compared to those living in rural areas. [b]Conclusions.[/b] The Internet addiction criteria were fulfilled by 0.45% of adolescents living in urban areas and 2.9% of those living in rural areas, whereas 35.55% of urban dwelling students and 30.18% of students living in rural areas showed a risk of developing this addiction. More adolescents living in urban areas, compared to those living in rural areas, use Internet pornography, play computer games, disclose their personal data to unknown individuals encountered on the Internet, use Instant Messaging (IM services, electronic mail and Facebook social networking service. Compared to their peers from urban areas, significantly more adolescents from rural areas use ‘Nasza Klasa’ (Our Classmates online social networking service.

Prevalence of Internet addiction and risk of developing addiction as exemplified by a group of Polish adolescents from urban and rural areas.

Science.gov (United States)

Pawłowska, Beata; Zygo, Maciej; Potembska, Emilia; Kapka-Skrzypczak, Lucyna; Dreher, Piotr; Kędzierski, Zbigniew

2015-01-01

The objective of the study was to determine the prevalence of Internet addiction and the risk of developing this addiction in Polish adolescents attending junior high schools and high school in Lublin Province, to indicate the differences regarding the intensity of Internet addiction symptoms, and the types of online activity of adolescents residing in urban and rural areas. The examined group comprised 1,860 participants (1,320 girls and 540 boys) with an average age of 17 years. 760 students lived in urban areas and 1,100 lived in rural areas. The following were used in the study: the Socio-demographic Questionnaire designed by the authors, the Internet Addiction Questionnaire designed by Potembska, the Internet Addiction Test by Young and the Internet Addiction Questionnaire (Kwestionariusz do Badania Uzależnienia od Internetu - KBUI) designed by Pawłowska and Potembska. The adolescents living in urban areas showed a significantly greater intensity of Internet and computer addiction symptoms measured by the KBUI Questionnaire, compared to those living in rural areas. The Internet addiction criteria were fulfilled by 0.45% of adolescents living in urban areas and 2.9% of those living in rural areas, whereas 35.55% of urban dwelling students and 30.18% of students living in rural areas showed a risk of developing this addiction. More adolescents living in urban areas, compared to those living in rural areas, use Internet pornography, play computer games, disclose their personal data to unknown individuals encountered on the Internet, use Instant Messaging (IM) services, electronic mail and Facebook social networking service. Compared to their peers from urban areas, significantly more adolescents from rural areas use 'Nasza Klasa' (Our Classmates) online social networking service.

Proposed framework for the Western Area Power Administration Environmental Risk Management Program

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Glantz, C.S.; DiMassa, F.V.; Pelto, P.J.; Brothers, A.J. [Pacific Northwest Lab., Richland, WA (United States); Roybal, A.L. [Western Area Power Administration, Golden, CO (United States)

1994-12-01

The Western Area Power Administration (Western) views environmental protection and compliance as a top priority as it manages the construction, operation, and maintenance of its vast network of transmission lines, substations, and other facilities. A recent Department of Energy audit of Western`s environmental management activities recommends that Western adopt a formal environmental risk program. To accomplish this goal, Western, in conjunction with Pacific Northwest Laboratory, is in the process of developing a centrally coordinated environmental risk program. This report presents the results of this design effort, and indicates the direction in which Western`s environmental risk program is heading. Western`s environmental risk program will consist of three main components: risk communication, risk assessment, and risk management/decision making. Risk communication is defined as an exchange of information on the potential for threats to human health, public safety, or the environment. This information exchange provides a mechanism for public involvement, and also for the participation in the risk assessment and management process by diverse groups or offices within Western. The objective of risk assessment is to evaluate and rank the relative magnitude of risks associated with specific environmental issues that are facing Western. The evaluation and ranking is based on the best available scientific information and judgment and serves as input to the risk management process. Risk management takes risk information and combines it with relevant non-risk factors (e.g., legal mandates, public opinion, costs) to generate risk management options. A risk management tool, such as decision analysis, can be used to help make risk management choices.

Risk-adaptive optimization: Selective boosting of high-risk tumor subvolumes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Yusung; Tome, Wolfgang A.

2006-01-01

Background and Purpose: A tumor subvolume-based, risk-adaptive optimization strategy is presented. Methods and Materials: Risk-adaptive optimization employs a biologic objective function instead of an objective function based on physical dose constraints. Using this biologic objective function, tumor control probability (TCP) is maximized for different tumor risk regions while at the same time minimizing normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) for organs at risk. The feasibility of risk-adaptive optimization was investigated for a variety of tumor subvolume geometries, risk-levels, and slopes of the TCP curve. Furthermore, the impact of a correlation parameter, δ, between TCP and NTCP on risk-adaptive optimization was investigated. Results: Employing risk-adaptive optimization, it is possible in a prostate cancer model to increase the equivalent uniform dose (EUD) by up to 35.4 Gy in tumor subvolumes having the highest risk classification without increasing predicted normal tissue complications in organs at risk. For all tumor subvolume geometries investigated, we found that the EUD to high-risk tumor subvolumes could be increased significantly without increasing normal tissue complications above those expected from a treatment plan aiming for uniform dose coverage of the planning target volume. We furthermore found that the tumor subvolume with the highest risk classification had the largest influence on the design of the risk-adaptive dose distribution. The parameter δ had little effect on risk-adaptive optimization. However, the clinical parameters D 5 and γ 5 that represent the risk classification of tumor subvolumes had the largest impact on risk-adaptive optimization. Conclusions: On the whole, risk-adaptive optimization yields heterogeneous dose distributions that match the risk level distribution of different subvolumes within the tumor volume

Flood Risk Analysis in Denpasar City, Bali, Indonesia

Science.gov (United States)

Kusmiyarti, T. B.; Wiguna, P. P. K.; Ratna Dewi, N. K. R.

2018-02-01

Denpasar city is a Capital City of Bali Province and one of the leading tourist destinations in Indonesia. Denpasar area is relatively flat with high rain fall intensity with the domince of settlement. This makes Denpasar City becomes prone area of flood. The aim of this research is to find out the spatial distribution flood hazard and the risk of population which are affected to the flood hazard. Weighting, scoring and overlaying method were used in this research. Six indicators were used to analyze the flood hazard: landuse, rainfall, type of soil, slope, altitute and drainage density. The vulnerability is analyzed per Desa or Kelurahan (Rustic/Neighborhood) with the indicator of age, education and population density. Risk was calculated by multiplied hazard with vulnerability and divided with coping capacity. In this research, coping capacity is determined by the amount of internal budget for each Desa or Kelurahan for development purpose. Flood risk in Denpasar city is divided into five classes, very low risk, low risk, medium risk, high risk and very high risk. Total population with very high risk reached 202478 people or 13.16% of total population. The total area is 780.7 ha or 16.02% from total settlement in Denpasar city. Total population with high risk reached 202478 people or 13.16% of total population. The total area is 780.7 ha or 16.02% from total settlement in Denpasar city. The number of population with medium risk reached 202478 people or 33.51% of total population which occupied 22.95% of total settlements or 1118.18 ha. The total number of population with low risk reached 79435 people or 13.14% of total population with area of low flood risk is 716.89 ha or 14.71% of total settlements in Denpasar City. Very low flood risk with total population at risk reached 19184 people or 31.74% of total population and occupied 2003.54 areas or 41.12% of total areas of settlements.

How to Identify High-Risk APS Patients: Clinical Utility and Predictive Values of Validated Scores.

Science.gov (United States)

Oku, Kenji; Amengual, Olga; Yasuda, Shinsuke; Atsumi, Tatsuya

2017-08-01

Antiphospholipid syndrome (APS) is a clinical disorder characterised by thrombosis and/or pregnancy morbidity in the persistence of antiphospholipid (aPL) antibodies that are pathogenic and have pro-coagulant activities. Thrombosis in APS tends to recur and require prophylaxis; however, the stereotypical treatment for APS patients is inadequate and stratification of the thrombotic risks is important as aPL are prevalently observed in various diseases or elderly population. It is previously known that the multiple positive aPL or high titre aPL correlate to thrombotic events. To progress the stratification of thrombotic risks in APS patients and to quantitatively analyse those risks, antiphospholipid score (aPL-S) and the Global Anti-phospholipid Syndrome Score (GAPSS) were defined. These scores were raised from the large patient cohort data and either aPL profile classified in detail (aPL-S) or simplified aPL profile with classical thrombotic risk factors (GAPSS) was put into a scoring system. Both the aPL-S and GAPSS have shown a degree of accuracy in identifying high-risk APS patients, especially those at a high risk of thrombosis. However, there are several areas requiring improvement, or at least that clinicians should be aware of, before these instruments are applied in clinical practice. One such issue is standardisation of the aPL tests, including general testing of phosphatidylserine-dependent antiprothrombin antibodies (aPS/PT). Additionally, clinicians may need to be aware of the patient's medical history, particularly with respect to the incidence of SLE, which influences the cutoff value for identifying high-risk patients.

High risk of lead contamination for scavengers in an area with high moose hunting success.

Science.gov (United States)

Legagneux, Pierre; Suffice, Pauline; Messier, Jean-Sébastien; Lelievre, Frédérick; Tremblay, Junior A; Maisonneuve, Charles; Saint-Louis, Richard; Bêty, Joël

2014-01-01

Top predators and scavengers are vulnerable to pollutants, particularly those accumulated along the food chain. Lead accumulation can induce severe disorders and alter survival both in mammals (including humans) and in birds. A potential source of lead poisoning in wild animals, and especially in scavengers, results from the consumption of ammunition residues in the tissues of big game killed by hunters. For two consecutive years we quantified the level lead exposure in individuals of a sentinel scavenger species, the common raven (Corvus corax), captured during the moose (Alces alces) hunting season in eastern Quebec, Canada. The source of the lead contamination was also determined using stable isotope analyses. Finally, we identified the different scavenger species that could potentially be exposed to lead by installing automatic cameras targeting moose gut piles. Blood lead concentration in ravens increased over time, indicating lead accumulation over the moose-hunting season. Using a contamination threshold of 100 µg x L(-1), more than 50% of individuals were lead-contaminated during the moose hunting period. Lead concentration was twice as high in one year compared to the other, matching the number of rifle-shot moose in the area. Non-contaminated birds exhibited no ammunition isotope signatures. The isotope signature of the lead detected in contaminated ravens tended towards the signature from lead ammunition. We also found that black bears (Ursus americanus), golden eagles and bald eagles (Aquila chrysaetos and Haliaeetus leucocephalus, two species of conservation concern) scavenged heavily on moose viscera left by hunters. Our unequivocal results agree with other studies and further motivate the use of non-toxic ammunition for big game hunting.

High risk of lead contamination for scavengers in an area with high moose hunting success.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pierre Legagneux

Full Text Available Top predators and scavengers are vulnerable to pollutants, particularly those accumulated along the food chain. Lead accumulation can induce severe disorders and alter survival both in mammals (including humans and in birds. A potential source of lead poisoning in wild animals, and especially in scavengers, results from the consumption of ammunition residues in the tissues of big game killed by hunters. For two consecutive years we quantified the level lead exposure in individuals of a sentinel scavenger species, the common raven (Corvus corax, captured during the moose (Alces alces hunting season in eastern Quebec, Canada. The source of the lead contamination was also determined using stable isotope analyses. Finally, we identified the different scavenger species that could potentially be exposed to lead by installing automatic cameras targeting moose gut piles. Blood lead concentration in ravens increased over time, indicating lead accumulation over the moose-hunting season. Using a contamination threshold of 100 µg x L(-1, more than 50% of individuals were lead-contaminated during the moose hunting period. Lead concentration was twice as high in one year compared to the other, matching the number of rifle-shot moose in the area. Non-contaminated birds exhibited no ammunition isotope signatures. The isotope signature of the lead detected in contaminated ravens tended towards the signature from lead ammunition. We also found that black bears (Ursus americanus, golden eagles and bald eagles (Aquila chrysaetos and Haliaeetus leucocephalus, two species of conservation concern scavenged heavily on moose viscera left by hunters. Our unequivocal results agree with other studies and further motivate the use of non-toxic ammunition for big game hunting.

Risk assessment of the retrieval of transuranic waste: Pads 1, 2, and 4, Technical Area-54, Area G Los Alamos National Laboratory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wilbert, K.A.; Lyon, B.F.; Hutchison, J.; Holmes, J.A.; Legg, J.L.; Simek, M.P.; Travis, C.C.; Wollert, D.A.

1995-05-01

The Risk Assessment for the Retrieval of Transuranic Waste is a comparative risk assessment of the potential adverse human health effects resulting from exposure to contaminants during retrieval and post-retrieval aboveground storage operations of post-1970 earthen-covered transuranic waste. Two alternatives are compared: (1) Immediate Retrieval and (2) Delayed Retrieval. Under the Immediate Retrieval Alternative, retrieval of the waste is assumed to begin immediately, Under the Delayed Retrieval Alternative, retrieval is delayed 10 years. The current risk assessment is on Pads 1, 2, and 4, at Technical Area-54, Area-G, Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). Risks are assessed independently for three scenarios: (1) incident-free retrieval operations, (2) incident-free storage operations, and (3) a drum failure analysis. The drum failure analysis evaluates container integrity under both alternatives and assesses the impacts of potential drum failures during retrieval operations. Risks associated with a series of drum failures are potentially severe for workers, off-site receptors, and general on-site employees if retrieval is delayed 10 years and administrative and engineering controls remain constant. Under the Delayed Retrieval Alternative, an average of 300 drums out of 16,647 are estimated to fail during retrieval operations due to general corrosion, while minimal drums are predicted to fail under the Immediate Retrieval Alternative. The results of the current study suggest that, based on risk, remediation of Pads 1, 2, and 4 at LANL should not be delayed. Although risks from incident-free operations in the Delayed Retrieval Alternative are low, risks due to corrosion and drum failures are potentially severe

Who Takes Risks in High-Risk Sports? A Typological Personality Approach

Science.gov (United States)

Castanier, Carole; Le Scanff, Christine; Woodman, Tim

2010-01-01

We investigated the risk-taking behaviors of 302 men involved in high-risk sports (downhill skiing, mountaineering, rock climbing, paragliding, or skydiving). The sportsmen were classified using a typological approach to personality based on eight personality types, which were constructed from combinations of neuroticism, extraversion, and…

[Integrated Management Area of Vascular Risk: A new organisational model for global control of risk factors].

Science.gov (United States)

Armario, P; Jericó, C; Vila, L; Freixa, R; Martin-Castillejos, C; Rotllan, M

Cardiovascular disease (CVD), is a major cause of morbidity and mortality that increases the cost of care. Currently there is a low degree of control of the main cardiovascular risk factors, although we have a good therapeutic arsenal. To achieve the improvement of this reality, a good coordination and multidisciplinary participation are essential. The development of new organizational models such as the Integrated Management Area of Vascular Risk can facilitate the therapeutic harmonization and unification of the health messages offered by different levels of care, based on clinical practice guidelines, in order to provide patient-centred integrated care. Copyright © 2016 SEH-LELHA. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Acromegaly Is More Severe in Patients With AHR or AIP Gene Variants Living in Highly Polluted Areas.

Science.gov (United States)

Cannavo, S; Ragonese, M; Puglisi, S; Romeo, P D; Torre, M L; Alibrandi, A; Scaroni, C; Occhi, G; Ceccato, F; Regazzo, D; De Menis, E; Sartorato, P; Arnaldi, G; Trementino, L; Trimarchi, F; Ferrau, F

2016-04-01

An increased prevalence of acromegaly was found some years ago in a highly polluted area in North-Eastern Sicily, where high concentration of nonmethane hydrocarbons, volatile organic compounds, and cadmium was found. Aryl hydrocarbon receptor (AHR) pathway has a key role in detoxification of these compounds and in tumorigenesis. We correlated the occurrence of AHR and/or AHR-interacting protein (AIP) gene variants with acromegaly severity according to pollution exposition. This was an observational, perspective study conducted over 7 years in four Italian referral centers for pituitary diseases in which 210 patients with acromegaly were enrolled between 2008 and 2015. Genetic screening of patients for AHR and AIP variants. Clinical, biochemical, and radiological data of patients with and without AIP and/or AHR gene variants, living in polluted (high-risk for health, [HR]) or nonpolluted (NP) areas of five Italian regions were evaluated and compared. Among the 23 patients from HR areas, nine showed AHR or AIP variants. Mean IGF-I levels and pituitary tumor diameter were significantly higher in these nine patients (HR/VAR+) than in the other 14 (HR/VAR−) and in the 187 from NP areas (44 NP/VAR+). Somatostatin analogs significantly decreased mean GH and IGF-I levels in patients from NP areas and in HR/VAR− (GH P acromegaly, increased pituitary tumor size, and somatostatin analog resistance in patients living in HR areas.

Estimation of the area at risk in myocardial infarction of rats by means of I-123 β-methyliodophenyl pentadecanoic acid imaging

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hasegawa, Shinji; Hori, Masatsugu; Nishimura, Tsunehiko; Kusuoka, Hideo; Fukuchi, Kazuki

2000-01-01

Clinical investigations have suggested that the defects in SPECT images of a free fatty acid analog, I-123 β-methyliodophenyl pentadecanoic acid (BMIPP) may indicate the ischemic risk area. To elucidate whether I-123 BMIPP can indicate the area at risk of ischemia, ex-vivo autoradiography was performed in rats whose left coronary artery was occluded for 60 min and then reperfused. I-123 BMIPP was injected at the acute stage (n=10), or the subacute stage (7 days after reperfusion; n=9). Infarction and the area at risk were identified by triphenyl tetrazolium chloride staining and injection of methylene blue during religation just before sacrifice, respectively. The BMIPP uptake in the risk area was significantly lower than that in the remote area at the acute (risk, 53.7±23.3% of the uptake at right ventricle, mean ±SD; remote, 109.3±11.8%; p<0.01) and subacute (risk, 52.5±11.5%; remote, 97.9±14.3%; p<0.01) stages. In addition, the area with reduced uptake of I-123 BMIPP showed a significant correlation with the area at risk both at the acute (r=0.98, P<0.01) and subacute (r=0.92, p<0.01) stages. In conclusion, the area at risk can be evaluated by I-123 BMIPP both at the acute and subacute stages. (author)

Efficacy of Over-the-Scope Clips in Management of High-Risk Gastrointestinal Bleeding.

Science.gov (United States)

Brandler, Justin; Baruah, Anushka; Zeb, Muhammad; Mehfooz, Ayesha; Pophali, Prachi; Wong Kee Song, Louis; AbuDayyeh, Barham; Gostout, Christopher; Mara, Kristin; Dierkhising, Ross; Buttar, Navtej

2018-05-01

Standard endoscopic therapies do not control bleeding or produce complications in as many as 20% of patients with nonvariceal gastrointestinal bleeding. Most bleeding comes from ulcers with characteristics such as high-risk vascular territories and/or large vessels. We evaluated the efficacy of using over-the-scope clips (OTSCs) as primary or rescue therapy for patients with bleeding from lesions that have a high risk for adverse outcomes. We performed a retrospective analysis of data from 67 patients with gastrointestinal bleeding from high-risk lesions who were treated with OTSCs as primary (n = 49) or rescue therapy (n = 18) at a quaternary center, from December 2011 through February 2015. The definition of high-risk lesions was lesions that were situated in the area of a major artery and larger than 2 mm in diameter and/or a deep penetrating, excavated, fibrotic ulcer with high-risk stigmata, in which a perforation could not be ruled out or thermal therapy would cause perforation, or lesions that could not be treated by standard endoscopy. Clinical severity was determined based on the Rockall score and a modified Blatchford score. Our primary outcome was the incidence of rebleeding within 30 days after OTSC placement. We assessed risk factors for rebleeding using univariate hazard models followed by multivariable analysis. Of the 67 patients, 47 (70.1%) remained free of rebleeding at 30 days after OTSC placement. We found no difference in the proportion of patients with rebleeding who received primary or rescue therapy (hazard ratio, 0.639; 95% confidence interval, 0.084-4.860; P = .6653). Only 9 rebleeding events were linked clearly to OTSCs and required intervention, indicating an OTSC success rate of 81.3%. We found no significant associations between rebleeding and clinical scores. However, on multivariable analysis, patients with coronary artery disease had a higher risk of rebleeding after OTSC independent of international normalized ratio and

Mapping flood and flooding potential indices: a methodological approach to identifying areas susceptible to flood and flooding risk. Case study: the Prahova catchment (Romania)

Science.gov (United States)

Zaharia, Liliana; Costache, Romulus; Prăvălie, Remus; Ioana-Toroimac, Gabriela

2017-04-01

Given that floods continue to cause yearly significant worldwide human and material damages, flood risk mitigation is a key issue and a permanent challenge in developing policies and strategies at various spatial scales. Therefore, a basic phase is elaborating hazard and flood risk maps, documents which are an essential support for flood risk management. The aim of this paper is to develop an approach that allows for the identification of flash-flood and flood-prone susceptible areas based on computing and mapping of two indices: FFPI (Flash-Flood Potential Index) and FPI (Flooding Potential Index). These indices are obtained by integrating in a GIS environment several geographical variables which control runoff (in the case of the FFPI) and favour flooding (in the case of the FPI). The methodology was applied in the upper (mountainous) and middle (hilly) catchment of the Prahova River, a densely populated and socioeconomically well-developed area which has been affected repeatedly by water-related hazards over the past decades. The resulting maps showing the spatialization of the FFPI and FPI allow for the identification of areas with high susceptibility to flashfloods and flooding. This approach can provide useful mapped information, especially for areas (generally large) where there are no flood/hazard risk maps. Moreover, the FFPI and FPI maps can constitute a preliminary step for flood risk and vulnerability assessment.

A social work study high-risk behavior among teenagers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mohammad Reza Iravani

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Teenagers are believed the people who are supposed to build the world's future. High-risk behaviors such as addiction to drugs, smoking cigarettes, sex, etc. could significantly hurts teenagers and there must be some supporting programs to reduce these issues as much as possible. This paper performs an empirical investigation to study the different factors influencing high- risk behavior among teenagers who live in a city of Esfahan, Iran. The proposed study designs a questionnaire and distribute between two groups of female and male teenagers. The results indicate that while there is a meaningful relationship between high-risk behaviors and average high school marks among male students there is no meaningful relationship between high-risk behaviors and high school grades among female students. The results also indicate that there is a meaningful difference between gender and high-risk behavior. The season of birth for female and male students is another important factor for having high-risk behaviors. While the order of birth plays an important role among male students, the order of birth is not an important factor among female teenagers. Finally, the results indicate that teenagers' parental financial affordability plays a vital role on both female and male teenagers.

Evaluation of Risk Management Strategies for a Low-Cost, High-Risk Project

Science.gov (United States)

Shishko, Robert; Jorgensen, Edward J.

1996-01-01

This paper summarizes work in progress to define and implement a risk management process tailored to a low-cost, high-risk, NASA mission -the Microrover Flight Experiment (MFEX, commonly called the Mars microrover).

Are recreational areas a risk factor for tick paralysis in urban environments?

Science.gov (United States)

Gerasimova, Maria; Kelman, Mark; Ward, Michael P

2018-04-30

In Australia, tick paralysis in dogs (caused by a toxin in the saliva of Ixodes species during feeding) is a serious, distressing condition, and untreated it is often fatal. The aim of this study was to quantify the association between parkland (recreational or natural) in an urban area and the occurrence of canine tick paralysis. Brisbane, as a large urban centre located within the zone of paralysis tick habitat along the east coast of Australia, was selected as the study area. Postcodes selected for inclusion were those defined as being of an urban character (Australian Bureau of Statistics). The number of natural and recreational parkland polygons and total land area per postcode were derived. Tick paralysis case data for the selected postcodes were extracted from a national companion animal disease surveillance database. Between October 2010 and January 2017, 1650 cases of tick paralysis in dogs were reported and included in this study. Significant correlations were found between the number of reported cases per postcode and parklands: natural counts, 0.584 (P edges of the study area - either coastal or on the urban fringe; no clusters were identified within the core urban zone of the study area. Of the disease cases included in this study, strong seasonality was evidence: 68% of all cases were identified in spring. Within urban environments, areas of natural vegetation in particular appear to pose a risk for tick paralysis in dogs. This evidence can be used by veterinarians and dog owners to reduce the impact of tick paralysis by raising awareness of risk areas so as to enhance prevention via chemoprophylaxis and targeted searches of pet dogs for attached ticks. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Excess relative risk of solid cancer mortality after prolonged exposure to naturally occurring high background radiation in Yangjiang, China

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sun Quanfu; Tao Zufan [Ministry of Health, Beijing (China). Lab. of Industrial Hygiene; Akiba, Suminori (and others)

2000-10-01

A study was made on cancer mortality in the high-background radiation areas of Yangjiang, China. Based on hamlet-specific environmental doses and sex- and age-specific occupancy factors, cumulative doses were calculated for each subject. In this article, we describe how the indirect estimation was made on individual dose and the methodology used to estimate radiation risk. Then, assuming a linear dose response relationship and using cancer mortality data for the period 1979-1995, we estimate the excess relative risk per Sievert for solid cancer to be -0.11 (95% CI, -0.67, 0.69). Also, we estimate the excess relative risks of four leading cancers in the study areas, i.e., cancers of the liver, nasopharynx, lung and stomach. In addition, we evaluate the effects of possible bias on our risk estimation. (author)

Analysis of the potential contamination risk of groundwater resources circulating in areas with anthropogenic activities

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Spizzico

2005-01-01

Full Text Available The area investigated is located in the province of Brindisi (Italy. It is a generally flat area separated from the nearby carbonatic plateau of the Murgia by quite indistinct and high fault scarps. As regards the geological features, carbonatic basement rocks and post-cretaceous terrains made up of calabrian calcarenites and middle-upper Pleistocenic marine terraced deposits can be distinguished. In the examined area there are two different hydrogeological environments. The first is represented by deep groundwater, the main groundwater resource in Apulia. The second hydrogeological environment, now of lesser importance than the deep aquifer in terms of size and use, is made up of some small shallow groundwater systems situated in post-calabrian sands and located in the eastern area. During some sampling cycles carried out in the studied area, water was withdrawn from both the deep aquifer and from the shallow groundwater. For every sample, the necessary parameters were determined for the physical and chemical characterisation of two different hydrogeological environments. Moreover, some chemical parameters indicating anthropogenic activities were determined. Analysis of the aerial distribution of the measured parameters has shown some main areas subject to different conditions of contamination risk, in accordance with the hydrogeological and geological features of the investigated area. In the south-eastern part of the investigated area, the important action performed by the surface aquifer for protecting the deep groundwater from contamination of anthropogenic origin is clear. On the other hand, in the shallow groundwater, areas of nitrate and nitrite contamination have been identified, which result from the extensive use of fertilizers.

Rapid COJEC versus standard induction therapies for high-risk neuroblastoma.

Science.gov (United States)

Peinemann, Frank; Tushabe, Doreen A; van Dalen, Elvira C; Berthold, Frank

2015-05-19

Reviews of Interventions. We used the five GRADE considerations, study limitations, consistency of effect, imprecision, indirectness, and publication bias, to judge the quality of the evidence. We downgraded for risk of bias and imprecision We identified one randomized controlled trial (CCLG-ENSG-5) that included 262 patients with high-risk neuroblastoma who were randomized to receive either rapid COJEC (N = 130) or standard OPEC/COJEC (N = 132) induction chemotherapy. We graded the evidence as low quality; we downgraded for risk of bias and imprecision.There was no clear evidence of a difference between the treatment groups in complete response (risk ratio (RR) 0.99, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.71 to 1.38), treatment-related mortality (RR 1.21, 95% CI 0.33 to 4.39), overall survival (hazard ratio (HR) 0.83, 95% CI 0.63 to 1.10), and event-free survival (HR 0.86, 95% CI 0.65 to 1.13). We calculated the HRs using the complete follow-up period of the trial.Febrile neutropenia (two or more episodes), proven fungal infections, septicemia (one or more episodes), gastrointestinal toxicity (grade 3 or 4), renal toxicity (glomerular filtration rate < 80 ml/min per body surface area of 1.73 m(2)), neurological toxicity (grade 3 or 4), and ototoxicity (Brock grade 2 to 4) were addressed as early toxicities (during pre-operative chemotherapy). For febrile neutropenia, septicemia, and renal toxicity, a statistically significant difference in favor of the standard treatment arm was identified; for all other early toxicities no clear evidence of a difference between treatment groups was identified. With regard to late non-hematological toxicities (median follow-up 12.7 years; range 6.9 to 16.5 years), the study provided data on any complication, renal toxicity (glomerular filtration rate < 80 ml/min per body surface area of 1.73m(2)), ototoxicity (Brock grade 1 to 4), endocrine complications, neurocognitive complications (i.e. behavioral, speech, or learning difficulties), and

Risk assessment of major hazards: Hazardous materials transportation in urban areas