The external costs of low probability-high consequence events: Ex ante damages and lay risks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Krupnick, A.J.; Markandya, A.; Nickell, E.

1994-01-01

This paper provides an analytical basis for characterizing key differences between two perspectives on how to estimate the expected damages of low probability - high consequence events. One perspective is the conventional method used in the U.S.-EC fuel cycle reports [e.g., ORNL/RFF (1994a,b]. This paper articulates another perspective, using economic theory. The paper makes a strong case for considering this, approach as an alternative, or at least as a complement, to the conventional approach. This alternative approach is an important area for future research. I Interest has been growing worldwide in embedding the external costs of productive activities, particularly the fuel cycles resulting in electricity generation, into prices. In any attempt to internalize these costs, one must take into account explicitly the remote but real possibilities of accidents and the wide gap between lay perceptions and expert assessments of such risks. In our fuel cycle analyses, we estimate damages and benefits' by simply monetizing expected consequences, based on pollution dispersion models, exposure-response functions, and valuation functions. For accidents, such as mining and transportation accidents, natural gas pipeline accidents, and oil barge accidents, we use historical data to estimate the rates of these accidents. For extremely severe accidents--such as severe nuclear reactor accidents and catastrophic oil tanker spills--events are extremely rare and they do not offer a sufficient sample size to estimate their probabilities based on past occurrences. In those cases the conventional approach is to rely on expert judgments about both the probability of the consequences and their magnitude. As an example of standard practice, which we term here an expert expected damage (EED) approach to estimating damages, consider how evacuation costs are estimated in the nuclear fuel cycle report

The external costs of low probability-high consequence events: Ex ante damages and lay risks

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Krupnick, A J; Markandya, A; Nickell, E

1994-07-01

This paper provides an analytical basis for characterizing key differences between two perspectives on how to estimate the expected damages of low probability - high consequence events. One perspective is the conventional method used in the U.S.-EC fuel cycle reports [e.g., ORNL/RFF (1994a,b]. This paper articulates another perspective, using economic theory. The paper makes a strong case for considering this, approach as an alternative, or at least as a complement, to the conventional approach. This alternative approach is an important area for future research. I Interest has been growing worldwide in embedding the external costs of productive activities, particularly the fuel cycles resulting in electricity generation, into prices. In any attempt to internalize these costs, one must take into account explicitly the remote but real possibilities of accidents and the wide gap between lay perceptions and expert assessments of such risks. In our fuel cycle analyses, we estimate damages and benefits' by simply monetizing expected consequences, based on pollution dispersion models, exposure-response functions, and valuation functions. For accidents, such as mining and transportation accidents, natural gas pipeline accidents, and oil barge accidents, we use historical data to estimate the rates of these accidents. For extremely severe accidents--such as severe nuclear reactor accidents and catastrophic oil tanker spills--events are extremely rare and they do not offer a sufficient sample size to estimate their probabilities based on past occurrences. In those cases the conventional approach is to rely on expert judgments about both the probability of the consequences and their magnitude. As an example of standard practice, which we term here an expert expected damage (EED) approach to estimating damages, consider how evacuation costs are estimated in the nuclear fuel cycle report.

The Impact of Marijuana Legalization on Adolescent Use, Consequences, and Perceived Risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Estoup, Ashley C; Moise-Campbell, Claudine; Varma, Malini; Stewart, David G

2016-12-05

Currently, only four states have legalized recreational marijuana use for adults over 21 years of age. Therefore, little is known about the influence that legalization will have on adolescent marijuana use. This study examines how marijuana legalization has impacted the frequency and consequences of adolescent use in a sample of participants in a school-based, substance use intervention. We hypothesized that adolescents enrolled in the intervention in years after marijuana legalization would present with more problematic use compared to those enrolled prior, and that changes in the perceived risk of marijuana would be a mechanism of problematic use. Participants were 262 students enrolled in a school-based substance use intervention in 2010 to 2015. The Customary Drinking and Drug Use Record, Alcohol and Drug Use Consequences Questionnaire, and a decisional balance matrix were used to assess marijuana frequency, negative consequences, and perceived risk of use. A mediation model was used to test the degree to which marijuana legalization may lead to increased frequency and consequences of use through perceived risk. Findings indicated a significantly positive correlation between marijuana-related consequences and perceived risk post legalization. Despite relatively equal use between both groups, adolescents in the legalization group experienced higher levels of perceived risk and increased negative consequences. Due to the rising legalization status of marijuana in the United States, it is imperative that psychoeducation is provided to adults and adolescents about the consequences of underage marijuana use.

Portal hypertension in children: High-risk varices, primary prophylaxis and consequences of bleeding.

Science.gov (United States)

Duché, Mathieu; Ducot, Béatrice; Ackermann, Oanez; Guérin, Florent; Jacquemin, Emmanuel; Bernard, Olivier

2017-02-01

Primary prophylaxis of bleeding is debated for children with portal hypertension because of the limited number of studies on its safety and efficacy, the lack of a known endoscopic pattern carrying a high-risk of bleeding for all causes, and the assumption that the mortality of a first bleed is low. We report our experience with these issues. From 1989 to 2014, we managed 1300 children with portal hypertension. Endoscopic features were recorded; high-risk varices were defined as: grade 3 esophageal varices, grade 2 varices with red wale markings, or gastric varices. Two hundred forty-six children bled spontaneously and 182 underwent primary prophylaxis. The results of primary prophylaxis were reviewed as well as bleed-free survival, overall survival and life-threatening complications of bleeding. High-risk varices were found in 96% of children who bled spontaneously and in 11% of children who did not bleed without primary prophylaxis (pportal hypertension. Life-threatening complications of bleeding were recorded in 19% of children with cirrhosis and high-risk varices who bled spontaneously. Ten-year probabilities of bleed-free survival after primary prophylaxis in children with high-risk varices were 96% and 72% for non-cirrhotic causes and cirrhosis respectively. Ten-year probabilities of overall survival after primary prophylaxis were 100% and 93% in children with non-cirrhotic causes and cirrhosis respectively. In children with portal hypertension, bleeding is linked to the high-risk endoscopic pattern reported here. Primary prophylaxis of bleeding based on this pattern is fairly effective and safe. In children with liver disease, the risk of bleeding from varices in the esophagus is linked to their large size, the presence of congestion on their surface and their expansion into the stomach but not to the child's age nor to the cause of portal hypertension. Prevention of the first bleed in children with high-risk varices can be achieved by surgery or endoscopic

Communicating Low-Probability High-Consequence Risk, Uncertainty and Expert Confidence: Induced Seismicity of Deep Geothermal Energy and Shale Gas.

Science.gov (United States)

Knoblauch, Theresa A K; Stauffacher, Michael; Trutnevyte, Evelina

2018-04-01

Subsurface energy activities entail the risk of induced seismicity including low-probability high-consequence (LPHC) events. For designing respective risk communication, the scientific literature lacks empirical evidence of how the public reacts to different written risk communication formats about such LPHC events and to related uncertainty or expert confidence. This study presents findings from an online experiment (N = 590) that empirically tested the public's responses to risk communication about induced seismicity and to different technology frames, namely deep geothermal energy (DGE) and shale gas (between-subject design). Three incrementally different formats of written risk communication were tested: (i) qualitative, (ii) qualitative and quantitative, and (iii) qualitative and quantitative with risk comparison. Respondents found the latter two the easiest to understand, the most exact, and liked them the most. Adding uncertainty and expert confidence statements made the risk communication less clear, less easy to understand and increased concern. Above all, the technology for which risks are communicated and its acceptance mattered strongly: respondents in the shale gas condition found the identical risk communication less trustworthy and more concerning than in the DGE conditions. They also liked the risk communication overall less. For practitioners in DGE or shale gas projects, the study shows that the public would appreciate efforts in describing LPHC risks with numbers and optionally risk comparisons. However, there seems to be a trade-off between aiming for transparency by disclosing uncertainty and limited expert confidence, and thereby decreasing clarity and increasing concern in the view of the public. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Crises communication practices and their consequences for risk communication

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Nina Blom

Title of paper: Crisis communication practices and their consequences for risk communication   There is a close coverage of disasters in modern western societies in the media. And there is a growing expectation that authorities handle the tasks of crisis communication in certain ways.   The first...... aim of this paper is to show, that the communication practices about the consequences of a disaster tend to focus on the individual citizen’s situation, and include the psychological consequences and suffering to a large degree. At least for a while. Then the debates and discussions about the event...... change from concern and care about the people affected towards discussions about e.g. cause, responsibility or even guilt.   The second aim of the paper is to discuss other ways for a society to come to terms with risks that leads to disastrous situations than through the topics mentioned above...

Crises communication practices and their consequences for risk communication

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Nina Blom

2016-01-01

Title of paper: Crisis communication practices and their consequences for risk communication There is a close coverage of disasters in modern western societies in the media. And there is a growing expectation that authorities handle the tasks of crisis communication in certain ways. The first aim...... of this paper is to show, that the communication practices about the consequences of a disaster tend to focus on the individual citizen?s situation, and include the psychological consequences and suffering to a large degree. At least for a while. Then the debates and discussions about the event change from...... concern and care about the people affected towards discussions about e.g. cause, responsibility or even guilt. The second aim of the paper is to discuss other ways for a society to come to terms with risks that leads to disastrous situations than through the topics mentioned above, and as well how...

Managing and understanding risk perception of surface leaks from CCS sites: risk assessment for emerging technologies and low-probability, high-consequence events

Science.gov (United States)

Augustin, C. M.

2015-12-01

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) has been suggested by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change as a partial solution to the greenhouse gas emissions problem. As CCS has become mainstream, researchers have raised multiple risk assessment issues typical of emerging technologies. In our research, we examine issues occuring when stored carbon dioxide (CO2) migrates to the near-surface or surface. We believe that both the public misperception and the physical reality of potential environmental, health, and commercial impacts of leak events from such subsurface sites have prevented widespread adoption of CCS. This paper is presented in three parts; the first is an evaluation of the systemic risk of a CCS site CO2 leak and models indicating potential likelihood of a leakage event. As the likelihood of a CCS site leak is stochastic and nonlinear, we present several Bayesian simulations for leak events based on research done with other low-probability, high-consequence gaseous pollutant releases. Though we found a large, acute leak to be exceptionally rare, we demonstrate potential for a localized, chronic leak at a CCS site. To that end, we present the second piece of this paper. Using a combination of spatio-temporal models and reaction-path models, we demonstrate the interplay between leak migrations, material interactions, and atmospheric dispersion for leaks of various duration and volume. These leak-event scenarios have implications for human, environmental, and economic health; they also have a significant impact on implementation support. Public acceptance of CCS is essential for a national low-carbon future, and this is what we address in the final part of this paper. We demonstrate that CCS remains unknown to the general public in the United States. Despite its unknown state, we provide survey findings -analyzed in Slovic and Weber's 2002 framework - that show a high unknown, high dread risk perception of leaks from a CCS site. Secondary findings are a

Spatial variation in risk and consequence of Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans introduction in the USA

Science.gov (United States)

Richgels, Katherine L. D.; Russell, Robin E.; Adams, Michael J.; White, C. LeAnn; Campbell Grant, Evan H.

2016-01-01

A newly identified fungal pathogen, Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans (Bsal), is responsible for mass mortality events and severe population declines in European salamanders. The eastern USA has the highest diversity of salamanders in the world and the introduction of this pathogen is likely to be devastating. Although data are inevitably limited for new pathogens, disease-risk assessments use best available data to inform management decisions. Using characteristics of Bsal ecology, spatial data on imports and pet trade establishments, and salamander species diversity, we identify high-risk areas with both a high likelihood of introduction and severe consequences for local salamanders. We predict that the Pacific coast, southern Appalachian Mountains and mid-Atlantic regions will have the highest relative risk from Bsal. Management of invasive pathogens becomes difficult once they are established in wildlife populations; therefore, import restrictions to limit pathogen introduction and early detection through surveillance of high-risk areas are priorities for preventing the next crisis for North American salamanders.

Aspects of risk analysis application to estimation of nuclear accidents and tests consequences and intervention management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Demin, V.F.; Hedemann-Jensen, P.; Rolevich, I.V.; Schneider, T.S.; Sobolev, B.G.

1996-01-01

For assessment of accident consequences and a post-accident management a risk analysis methodology and data bank (BARD) with allowance for radiation and non-radiation risk causes should be developed and used. Aspects of these needs and developments are considered. Some illustrative results of health risk estimation made with BARD for the Bryansk region territory with relatively high radioactive contamination from the Chernobyl accident are presented

Climatic change in Germany. Development, consequences, risks and perspectives

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brasseur, Guy; Jacob, Daniela; Schuck-Zoeller, Susanne

2017-01-01

The book on the climatic change in Germany includes contributions to the following issues: global climate projections and regional projections in Germany and Europe: observation of the climatic change in Central Europe, regional climate modeling, limits and challenges of the regional climate modeling; climatic change in Germany - regional features and extremes: temperature and heat waves, precipitation, wind and cyclones, sea-level increase, tides, storm floods and sea state, floods, definition uncertainties, draughts, forest fires, natural risks; consequences of the climatic change in Germany: air quality, health, biodiversity, water resources, biochemical cycles, agriculture, forestry, soils, personal and commercial transport, cities and urban regions, tourism, infrastructure, energy and water supplies, cost of the climatic change and economic consequences; overall risks and uncertainties: assessment of vulnerabilities, literature review, climatic change as risk enhancement in complex systems, overall risks and uncertainties, decision making under uncertainties in complex systems; integrated strategies for the adaptation to the climatic change: the climate resilient society - transformations and system changes, adaptation to the climatic change as new political field, options for adaptation strategies.

Prescription of the High Risk Narcotics and Trading or Illicit Purchasing of High Risk Narcotics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nicoleta-Elena Buzatu

2012-05-01

Full Text Available The present essay will analyze the offence of prescribing high risk narcotics and trading or illicit purchasing of high risk narcotics, as it was regulated - together with other offences - by Law no 143 of July 26, 2000 on preventing and fighting against the traffic and illicit consumption of narcotics. The same law defines the meaning of such a phrase “substances which are under national control” by mentioning the fact that they are the narcotics and their precursors listed in Annexes I-IV of the law. The analysis of the offence of prescribing the high risk narcotics and trading or illicit purchasing of high risk narcotics is following the already known structure mentioned in the doctrine and which consists of: object and subjects of the offence, its constituent content: the objective side with its material element, the immediate consequence and causality connections; the subjective side of the offence, as well as forms and modalities of these offences, and the applicable sanctions, of course.

Neonatal Nurses Experience Unintended Consequences and Risks to Patient Safety With Electronic Health Records.

Science.gov (United States)

Dudding, Katherine M; Gephart, Sheila M; Carrington, Jane M

2018-04-01

In this article, we examine the unintended consequences of nurses' use of electronic health records. We define these as unforeseen events, change in workflow, or an unanticipated result of implementation and use of electronic health records. Unintended consequences experienced by nurses while using electronic health records have been well researched. However, few studies have focused on neonatal nurses, and it is unclear to what extent unintended consequences threaten patient safety. A new instrument called the Carrington-Gephart Unintended Consequences of Electronic Health Record Questionnaire has been validated, and secondary analysis using the tool explored the phenomena among neonatal nurses (N = 40). The purposes of this study were to describe unintended consequences of use of electronic health records for neonatal nurses and to explore relationships between the phenomena and characteristics of the nurse and the electronic health record. The most frequent unintended consequences of electronic health record use were due to interruptions, followed by a heavier workload due to the electronic health record, changes to the workflow, and altered communication patterns. Neonatal nurses used workarounds most often with motivation to better assist patients. Teamwork was moderately related to higher unintended consequences including patient safety risks (r = 0.427, P = .007), system design (r = 0.419, P = .009), and technology barriers (r = 0.431, P = .007). Communication about patients was reduced when patient safety risks were high (r = -0.437, P = .003). By determining the frequency with which neonatal nurses experience unintended consequences of electronic health record use, future research can be targeted to improve electronic health record design through customization, integration, and refinement to support patient safety and better outcomes.

High-consequence analysis, evaluation, and application of select criteria

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gutmanis, I.; Jaksch, J.A.

1984-01-01

A number of characteristics distinguish environmental risk from pollution problems. The characteristics make environmental risk problems harder to manage through existing regulatory, legal, and economic institutions. Hence, technologies involving environmental risk impose on society extremely difficult collective decisions. This paper is concerned with the process of reaching social decisions that involve low-probability, high-consequence outcomes. It is divided into five major parts. Part I contains the introduction. Part II reviews the two main classes of criteria that have been proposed for social decisions: approaches based on market mechanisms and their extension, and approaches associated with Rawls and Buchanan, which not only focus on outcomes, but also impose a set of minimal constraints on the process for reaching decisions and social consensus. Part III proposes a set of eight criteria for evaluating social decision processes. In Parts IV and V we investigate applying the criteria to two case studies -- one on nuclear waste disposal and the other on transportation of liquefied natural gas

Being an 'adolescent': The consequences of gendered risks for young people in rural Uganda.

Science.gov (United States)

Bernays, Sarah; Bukenya, Dominic; Thompson, Claire; Ssembajja, Fatuma; Seeley, Janet

2018-02-01

The behaviour of adolescents is recognised increasingly as having substantial and long-term consequences for their health. We examined the meaning of 'adolescence' in southern Uganda with HIV-positive young people aged 11-24 years. Adolescent girls and boys are described differently in the local language (Luganda). Adolescence is described as a behavioural rather than a life course category and an inherently dangerous one. The practices, risks and consequences of 'adolescent' behaviour are highly gendered. Local understandings of adolescence are likely to have a significant impact on the efficacy of interventions designed to minimise their 'risky behaviour'.

Consequence-driven cyber-informed engineering (CCE)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Freeman, Sarah G. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); St Michel, Curtis [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Smith, Robert [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Assante, Michael [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

2016-10-18

The Idaho National Lab (INL) is leading a high-impact, national security-level initiative to reprioritize the way the nation looks at high-consequence risk within the industrial control systems (ICS) environment of the country’s most critical infrastructure and other national assets. The Consequence-driven Cyber-informed Engineering (CCE) effort provides both private and public organizations with the steps required to examine their own environments for high-impact events/risks; identify implementation of key devices and components that facilitate that risk; illuminate specific, plausible cyber attack paths to manipulate these devices; and develop concrete mitigations, protections, and tripwires to address the high-consequence risk. The ultimate goal of the CCE effort is to help organizations take the steps necessary to thwart cyber attacks from even top-tier, highly resourced adversaries that would result in a catastrophic physical effect. CCE participants are encouraged to work collaboratively with each other and with key U.S. Government (USG) contributors to establish a coalition, maximizing the positive effect of lessons-learned and further contributing to the protection of critical infrastructure and other national assets.

Project risk as identity threat: explaining the development and consequences of risk discourse in an infrastructure project

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Os, A.; van Berkel, F.J.F.W.; de Gilder, T.C.; van Dyck, C.; Groenewegen, P.

2015-01-01

This paper explores the role of social identity threat in risk discourse in an infrastructure project, and the consequences risk discourse has for cooperation between stakeholders. We show that risks posed a threat to the identity of the project team, resulting in a discourse focused on attributing

Falls in institutionalized older adults: risks, consequences and antecedents

OpenAIRE

Araújo Neto, Antonio Herculano de; Patrício, Anna Cláudia Freire de Araújo; Ferreira, Milenna Azevedo Minhaqui; Rodrigues, Brenda Feitosa Lopes; Santos, Thayná Dias dos; Rodrigues, Thays Domingos de Brito; Silva, Richardson Augusto Rosendo da

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT Objective: To analyze the occurrence of falls in institutionalized elderly addressing the risks, consequences and antecedents. Method: Cross-sectional study carried out with 45 older adults in Long-Term Care Facilities for the Older adult in João Pessoa, Brazil, in June and July 2016. A socio-demographic questionnaire and the Berg Balance Scale were applied, classifying as risk of fall scores lower than 45. Descriptive statistics and tests were conducted: independent t-test, Anova ...

Falls in institutionalized older adults: risks, consequences and antecedents

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Antonio Herculano de Araújo Neto

Full Text Available ABSTRACT Objective: To analyze the occurrence of falls in institutionalized elderly addressing the risks, consequences and antecedents. Method: Cross-sectional study carried out with 45 older adults in Long-Term Care Facilities for the Older adult in João Pessoa, Brazil, in June and July 2016. A socio-demographic questionnaire and the Berg Balance Scale were applied, classifying as risk of fall scores lower than 45. Descriptive statistics and tests were conducted: independent t-test, Anova (Tukey, Chi-square, Mann Whitney. Statistically significance was p <0.05. Data were processed in SPSS version 19.0. Results: A total of 66.7% (30 falls occurred, 20% (9 of them in the external area, with 66.7% (30 of the participants having hypertension as a previous disease and, as consequence, the fracture was highlighted with 11.2% (5. The Berg Scale had different scores when compared to the falls suffered by the elderly and previous diseases influenced the occurrence of falls (p <0.05. Conclusion: It is necessary to implement public financing policies or partnerships that allow environments adaptations aiming at reducing the risks of falls.

Changes in Classes of Injury-Related Risks and Consequences of Risk-Level Drinking: a Latent Transition Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Cochran, Gerald; Field, Craig; Caetano, Raul

2015-07-01

Risk-level drinking, drinking and driving, and alcohol-related violence are risk factors that result in injuries. The current study sought to identify which subgroups of patients experience the most behavioral change following a brief intervention. A secondary analysis of data from a brief alcohol intervention study was conducted. The sample (N = 664) includes at-risk drinkers who experienced an injury and were admitted for care to a Level 1 trauma center. Injury-related items from the Short Inventory of Problems+6 were used to perform a latent transition analysis to describe class transitions participants experienced following discharge. Four classes emerged for the year before and after the current injury. Most individuals transitioned from higher-risk classes into those with lower risk. Some participants maintained risky profiles, and others increased risks and consequences. Drinking and driving remained a persistent problem among the study participants. Although a large portion of intervention recipients improved risks and consequences of alcohol use following discharge, more intensive intervention services may be needed for a subset of patients who showed little or no improvement.

Original Research Identifying patients at high risk for obstructive ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

determine the factors associated with high risk for obstructive sleep apnoea and use it to identify patients at risk for the condition in ... mainstay of management is CPAP in addition to behavioral ..... the present study has some potential limitations which ... consequences of obstructive sleep apnea and short sleep duration.

Comprehensive transportation risk assessment system based on unit-consequence factors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Biwer, B.M.; Monette, F.A.; LePoire, D.J.; Chen, S.Y.

1994-01-01

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Environmental Restoration and Waste Management Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement requires a comprehensive transportation risk analysis of radioactive waste shipments for large shipping campaigns. Thousands of unique shipments involving truck and rail transport must be analyzed; a comprehensive risk analysis is impossible with currently available methods. Argonne National Laboratory developed a modular transportation model that can handle the demands imposed by such an analysis. The modular design of the model facilitates the simple addition/updating of transportation routes and waste inventories, as required, and reduces the overhead associated with file maintenance and quality assurance. The model incorporates unit-consequences factors generated with the RADTRAN 4 transportation risk analysis code that are combined with an easy-to-use, menu-driven interface on IBM-compatible computers running under DOS. User selection of multiple origin/destination site pairs for the shipment of multiple radioactive waste inventories is permitted from pop-up lists. Over 800 predefined routes are available among more than 30 DOE sites and waste inventories that include high-level waste, spent nuclear fuel, transuranic waste, low-level waste, low-level mixed waste, and greater-than-Class C waste

Low-Incidence, High-Consequence Pathogens

Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

2014-02-21

Dr. Stephan Monroe, a deputy director at CDC, discusses the impact of low-incidence, high-consequence pathogens globally.  Created: 2/21/2014 by National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases (NCEZID).   Date Released: 2/26/2014.

49 CFR 195.452 - Pipeline integrity management in high consequence areas.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... 49 Transportation 3 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Pipeline integrity management in high consequence... Management § 195.452 Pipeline integrity management in high consequence areas. (a) Which pipelines are covered... that could affect a high consequence area, including any pipeline located in a high consequence area...

Falls in institutionalized older adults: risks, consequences and antecedents.

Science.gov (United States)

Araújo, Antonio Herculano de; Patrício, Anna Cláudia Freire de Araújo; Ferreira, Milenna Azevedo Minhaqui; Rodrigues, Brenda Feitosa Lopes; Santos, Thayná Dias Dos; Rodrigues, Thays Domingos de Brito; Silva, Richardson Augusto Rosendo da

2017-01-01

To analyze the occurrence of falls in institutionalized elderly addressing the risks, consequences and antecedents. Cross-sectional study carried out with 45 older adults in Long-Term Care Facilities for the Older adult in João Pessoa, Brazil, in June and July 2016. A socio-demographic questionnaire and the Berg Balance Scale were applied, classifying as risk of fall scores lower than 45. Descriptive statistics and tests were conducted: independent t-test, Anova (Tukey), Chi-square, Mann Whitney. Statistically significance was p falls occurred, 20% (9) of them in the external area, with 66.7% (30) of the participants having hypertension as a previous disease and, as consequence, the fracture was highlighted with 11.2% (5). The Berg Scale had different scores when compared to the falls suffered by the elderly and previous diseases influenced the occurrence of falls (p risks of falls. Analisar a ocorrência de quedas em idosos institucionalizados quanto aos riscos, consequências e antecedentes. Estudo transversal, realizado com 45 idosos em Instituições de Longa Permanência para Idosos em João Pessoa/PB, Brasil, em junho e julho de 2016. Aplicou-se questionário sociodemográfico e Escala de Equilíbrio de Berg classificando risco de quedas quando escore inferior a 45. Realizou-se estatística descritiva e testes: t independente, Anova (Tukey), Qui-quadrado, Mann Whitney. Considerado significativamente estatístico p < 0,05 e processados no SPSS versão 19.0. As quedas ocorreram em 66,7% (30), sendo 20% (9) na área externa, 66,7% (30) com doença prévia hipertensão e como consequência destacou-se fratura com 11,2% (5). A Escala de Berg avaliou pontuações diferentes (p < 0,05) quando comparadas às quedas sofridas pelos idosos, e as doenças prévias influenciaram ocorrência de quedas (p < 0,05). Necessita-se implementar políticas públicas de financiamento ou parcerias que possibilitem adaptação dos ambientes visando a redução dos riscos de quedas.

Being an ‘adolescent’: The consequences of gendered risks for young people in rural Uganda

Science.gov (United States)

Bernays, Sarah; Bukenya, Dominic; Thompson, Claire; Ssembajja, Fatuma; Seeley, Janet

2017-01-01

The behaviour of adolescents is recognised increasingly as having substantial and long-term consequences for their health. We examined the meaning of ‘adolescence’ in southern Uganda with HIV-positive young people aged 11–24 years. Adolescent girls and boys are described differently in the local language (Luganda). Adolescence is described as a behavioural rather than a life course category and an inherently dangerous one. The practices, risks and consequences of ‘adolescent’ behaviour are highly gendered. Local understandings of adolescence are likely to have a significant impact on the efficacy of interventions designed to minimise their ‘risky behaviour’. PMID:29472746

Core Competencies and the Prevention of High-Risk Sexual Behavior

Science.gov (United States)

Charles, Vignetta Eugenia; Blum, Robert Wm.

2008-01-01

Adolescent sexual risk-taking behavior has numerous individual, family, community, and societal consequences. In an effort to contribute to the research and propose new directions, this chapter applies the core competencies framework to the prevention of high-risk sexual behavior. It describes the magnitude of the problem, summarizes explanatory…

Probabilistic risk assessment course documentation. Volume 7. Environmental transport and consequence analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ritchie, L.T.; Alpert, D.J.; Burke, R.P.; Ostmeyer, R.M.; Kaiser, G.D.; Runkle, G.E.; Woodard, K.

1985-08-01

Consequence models have been designed to assess health and economic risks from potential accidents at nuclear power plants. These models have been applied to an ever increasing variety of problems with ever increasing demands to improve modeling capabilities and provide greater realism. This course discusses the environmental transport of postulated radiological releases and the elements and purpose of accident consequence evaluation

Consequences of Erika's wreckage. Risks, environment, society, rehabilitation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Beurier, J.; Pouchus, Y.

2005-01-01

On December 12, 1999, the wreckage of the Erika tanker ship led to a huge oil spill along the western coast of France. Important means were implemented to fight against the oil pollution and important research means were mobilized by the university of Nantes to establish a medium and long-term diagnosis and status of the consequences of the wreckage on the coastal environments, on the fauna and flora, on men and on the society. A colloquium was organized on January 23-25, 2002, at the university of medicine and pharmacy of Nantes, to present the results of these studies. This book summarizes the content of the presentations given at this colloquium: past experiences, risks and environment (basic data, impacts of petroleum and of hydrocarbons treatment on the coastal environment), problem of the reference state of environments: what should be protected and according to what scientific argument?, risks and society (economic aspects, risks and warranties, experience feedback, rehabilitation approach at the Guerande peninsula). (J.S.)

Application of the accident consequences model of the German risk study to assessments of accident risks in different types of nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ehrhardt, J.; Bayer, A.

1982-01-01

Within the scope of the 'German Risk Study for Nuclear Power Plants' (Phase A) the accident consequence model UFOMOD was developed in the Karlsruhe Nuclear Research Center. This model originally developed for pressurized water reactors has now been extended in order to obtain results about accidental releases of activity from fast breeder and high-temperature reactors, too. (RW) [de

Risk-based consequences of extreme natural hazard processes in mountain regions - Multi-hazard analysis in Tyrol (Austria)

Science.gov (United States)

Huttenlau, Matthias; Stötter, Johann

2010-05-01

Reinsurance companies are stating a high increase in natural hazard related losses, both insured and economic losses, within the last decades on a global scale. This ongoing trend can be described as a product of the dynamic in the natural and in the anthroposphere. To analyze the potential impact of natural hazard process to a certain insurance portfolio or to the society in general, reinsurance companies or risk management consultants have developed loss models. However, those models are generally not fitting the scale dependent demand on regional scales like it is appropriate (i) for analyses on the scale of a specific province or (ii) for portfolio analyses of regional insurance companies. Moreover, the scientific basis of most of the models is not transparent documented and therefore scientific evaluations concerning the methodology concepts are not possible (black box). This is contrary to the scientific principles of transparency and traceability. Especially in mountain regions like the European Alps with their inherent (i) specific characteristic on small scales, (ii) the relative high process dynamics in general, (iii) the occurrence of gravitative mass movements which are related to high relief energy and thus only exists in mountain regions, (iv) the small proportion of the area of permanent settlement on the overall area, (v) the high value concentration in the valley floors, (vi) the exposition of important infrastructures and lifelines, and others, analyses must consider these circumstances adequately. Therefore, risk-based analyses are methodically estimating the potential consequences of hazard process on the built environment standardized with the risk components (i) hazard, (ii) elements at risk, and (iii) vulnerability. However, most research and progress have been made in the field of hazard analyses, whereas the other both components are not developed accordingly. Since these three general components are influencing factors without any

Systematic literature review of the risk factors, comorbidities, and consequences of hypogonadism in men.

Science.gov (United States)

Zarotsky, V; Huang, M-Y; Carman, W; Morgentaler, A; Singhal, P K; Coffin, D; Jones, T H

2014-11-01

The objective of this review was to summarize the literature on the risk factors, comorbidities, and consequences of male hypogonadism, which is defined as a syndrome complex that includes biochemical confirmation of low testosterone (T) and the consistent symptoms and signs associated with low T. A systematic literature search was performed in PubMed/MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane Library for articles published in the last 10 years on risk factors, comorbidities, and consequences of male hypogonadism. Of the 53 relevant studies identified, nine examined potential risk factors, 14 examined potential comorbidities, and 30 examined potential consequences of male hypogonadism. Based on studies conducted in Asia, Australia, Europe, and North & South America, the important factors that predicted and correlated with hypogonadism were advanced age, obesity, a diagnosis of metabolic syndrome (MetS), and a poor general health status. Diabetes mellitus was correlated with hypogonadism in most studies, but was not established as a risk factor. Although diseases, such as coronary heart disease, hypertension, stroke, and peripheral arterial disease did not predict hypogonadism, they did correlate with incident low T. The data reviewed on potential consequences suggest that low T levels may be linked to earlier all-cause and cardiovascular related mortality among men. This literature review suggests that men with certain factors, such as advanced age, obesity, MetS, and poor general health, are more likely to have and develop hypogonadism. Low levels of T may have important long-term negative health consequences. © 2014 American Society of Andrology and European Academy of Andrology.

The Prevalence, Risk Factors and Consequences of Neck Pain in Office Employees

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fatemeh Ehsani

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Background Office workers, especially computer users are at risk of developing neck pain (NP, while limited studies have been conducted on this issue. Objectives The purpose of this study was to identify the prevalence, risk factors, and consequences of NP in office employees, and its effect on their quality of life and work. Methods This research was a cross sectional study conducted during years 2014 and 2015. Among all employees, 220 people were randomly selected from 10 welfare organization offices of Semnan city of Iran. Data regarding the individual characteristics, occurrence of NP and its intensity, health status, risk factors and consequences of NP including functional disability and quality of life and work, as well as work-related factors were collected. Results Immediate, last month, last six months, last year, and lifetime prevalence of NP were 38.1%, 39.7%, 41.1%, 45.8% and, 62.1%, respectively. The point prevalence of NP was significantly related to age, gender, health status, job satisfaction, and length of employment (P < 0.05. Elongated working hours on the computer, taking a prolonged sitting position, and static postures were the most irritating factors, respectively (P < 0.001. Taking medications and physiotherapy were the most effective intervention strategies that participants chose for the treatment of NP (60.2%. Conclusions The findings provide evidence that the prevalence of NP in office employees was high. The modifiable individual and work-related factors were as follows, improving health status, job satisfaction, reduction of working hours on the computer, avoiding prolonged sitting and static postures, having a rest time during working hours, and performing regular daily exercises.

Evaluation of sanitary consequences of Chernobylsk accident in France. Epidemiological surveillance plan, state of knowledge, risks evaluation and perspectives

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Verger, P.; Cherie-Challine, L.

2000-12-01

This report jointly written by IPSN and InVS, reviews the sanitary consequences in France of the Chernobyl accident, which occurred in 1986. The first point is dedicated to a short presentation of the knowledge relative to the sanitary consequences of the Chernobyl accident in the high contaminated countries and to the risk factors of the thyroid cancer. Secondly, this report describes the main systems of epidemiological surveillance of health implemented in France in 1986 and in 1999, as well as the data of the incidence and mortality of thyroid cancer observed in France since 1975. In addition, this report presents an analysis of the risk of thyroid cancer related to radioactive contamination in France, for young people of less than 15 years of age who where living in 1986 in the highest contaminated areas of France (Eastern territories). For this purpose, the theoretical number of thyroid cancers in excess is evaluated for this population, on the basis of different available risk model. Finally starting from the results of risk assessment, there is a discussion about the relevance and the feasibility of different epidemiological methods in view of answering the questions related to the sanitary consequences of the Chernobyl accident. In conclusion, this report recommends to reinforce the surveillance of thyroid cancer in France. (author)

Dutch monitor on stress and physical load : risk factors, consequences, and preventive action

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Houtman, I.L.D.; Goudswaard, A.; Dhondt, S.; Grinten, M.P. van der; Hildebrandt, V.H.; Poel, E.G.T. van der

1998-01-01

Objectives - Due to recent changes in legislation on occupational health and safety, a national monitor on stress and physical load was developed in The Netherlands to monitor (a) risks and consequences of stress and physical load at work, (b) preventive actions in companies to reduce these risks,

Identifying patients at high risk for obstructive sleep apnoea ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Background: Obstructive sleep apnoea is associated with significant health consequences. A significant proportion of hospitalized patients at risk for obstructive sleep apnoea were never identified and referred for polysomnography for diagnosis. The objective of this study was to determine the factors associated with high ...

Consequences of potential accidents in heavy water plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Croitoru, C.; Lazar, R.E.; Preda, I.A.; Dumitrescu, M.

2002-01-01

Heavy water plants achieve the primary isotopic concentration by H 2 O-H 2 S chemical exchange. In these plants are stored large quantities of hydrogen sulphide (high toxic, corrosive, flammable and explosive) maintained in process at relative high temperatures and pressures. It is required an assessment of risks associated with the potential accidents. The paper presents adopted model for quantitative consequences assessment in heavy water plants. Following five basic steps are used to identify the risks involved in plants operation: hazard identification, accident sequences development, H 2 S emissions calculus, dispersion analyses and consequences determination. A brief description of each step and some information from risk assessment for our heavy water pilot plant are provided. Accident magnitude, atmospheric conditions and population density in studied area were accounted for consequences calculus. (author)

High-risk facilities. Emergency management in nuclear, chemical and hazardous waste facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kloepfer, Michael

2012-01-01

The book on emergency management in high-risk facilities covers the following topics: Change in the nuclear policy, risk management of high-risk facilities as a constitutional problem - emergency management in nuclear facilities, operational mechanisms of risk control in nuclear facilities, regulatory surveillance responsibilities for nuclear facilities, operational mechanism of the risk control in chemical plants, regulatory surveillance responsibilities for chemical facilities, operational mechanisms of the risk control in hazardous waste facilities, regulatory surveillance responsibilities for hazardous waste facilities, civil law consequences in case of accidents in high-risk facilities, criminal prosecution in case of accidents in high-risk facilities, safety margins as site risk for emission protection facilities, national emergency management - strategic emergency management structures, warning and self-protection of the public in case of CBRN hazards including aspects of the psych-social emergency management.

Consequence of potential accidents in heavy water plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Croitoru, C.; Lazar, R.E.; Preda, I.A.; Dumitrescu, M.

1998-01-01

Heavy water plants realize the primary isotopic concentrations of water using H 2 O-H 2 S chemical exchange and they are chemical plants. As these plants are handling and spreading large quantities of hydrogen sulphide (high toxic, corrosive, flammable and explosive as) maintained in the process at relative high temperatures and pressures, it is required an assessing of risks associated with the potential accidents. The H 2 S released in atmosphere as a result of an accident will have negative consequences to property, population and environment. This paper presents a model of consequences quantitative assessment and its outcome for the most dangerous accident in heavy water plants. Several states of the art risk based methods were modified and linked together to form a proper model for this analyse. Five basic steps to identify the risks involved in operating the plants are followed: hazard identification, accident sequence development, H 2 S emissions calculus, dispersion analyses and consequences determination. A brief description of each step and some information of analysis results are provided. The accident proportions, the atmospheric conditions and the population density in the respective area were accounted for consequences calculus. The specific results of the consequences analysis allow to develop the plant's operating safety requirements so that the risk remain at an acceptable level. (authors)

Injuries, negative consequences, and risk behaviors among both injured and uninjured emergency department patients who report using alcohol and marijuana

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Woolard Robert

2009-01-01

Full Text Available Background: Brief intervention (BI to reduce hazardous drinking and negative consequences such as injury has been effective when given in the emergency department (ED. The effectiveness and effect of BI has varied between injured and uninjured ED patients. This study compares injured and uninjured ED patients who admit to alcohol and marijuana use to determine their need and their readiness for BI. Patients and Methods: Participants volunteered to enter a randomized controlled trial of BI to reduce hazardous alcohol and marijuana use. Adult ED patients who had had alcohol in the last month and smoked marijuana in the last year were recruited. Those patients who were admitted to hospital, were under police custody, or were seeking treatment for substance use or psychiatric disorder were excluded. Research assistants interviewed participants using a validated questionnaire. Data were analyzed using SAS (version 9.1. Binominal tests of proportions, t-test analyses, and transformations were conducted as appropriate. Results: Injured (n = 249 and uninjured (n = 266 study participants reported very high, statistically equivalent (P > 0.05, rates of binge drinking (4-5 days/month, marijuana use (13 days/month, driving under the influence of marijuana or alcohol (>49% in the last 3 months, injury (>83% in the last year, and other negative consequences (>64% in the last 3 months prior to their ED visit. These behaviors and the consequences demonstrate a need for change. Both injured and uninjured subjects were ready to change (>56% and confident they could change (>91% alcohol and marijuana use. Discussion: ED patients who admit to alcohol and marijuana use also use other hazardous substances and participate in high-risk behaviors. In both injured and uninjured patients who admit using alcohol and marijuana, the ED visit is an opportunity to deliver BI to reduce alcohol and marijuana use and associated risk behaviors and the subsequent injury and

Adolescents who perceive fewer consequences of risk-taking choose to switch off games later at night.

Science.gov (United States)

Reynolds, Chelsea M; Gradisar, Michael; Kar, Kellyann; Perry, Ashleigh; Wolfe, Jasper; Short, Michelle A

2015-05-01

Technology use by adolescents close to bedtime commonly leads to sleep problems, and individual factors predicting those at heightened risk are under studied. We investigated whether risk-taking perceptions influenced length of adolescent technology use at bedtime and whether being aware of time moderated this association. We recruited 16 males and five females, with a mean age of 17.6 years, from school and university populations to assess adolescent technology use and bedtimes. They were assessed for trait risk-taking using the Cognitive Appraisal of Risky Events questionnaire and had unrestrained access to a video game on two separate nights, counterbalanced for clock present or clock absent conditions. The adolescents' self-selected bedtime provided a measure of the level of technology use and was the dependent variable. Adolescents who perceived fewer negative consequences of risky activities on the Cognitive Appraisal of Risky Events played the video game longer and went to bed later than those who perceived more negative consequences (p = 0.03). There was no influence on bedtimes from perceived benefits of risk-taking or clock presence. Adolescents who perceived fewer negative consequences of risk-taking were more likely to stay up later using technology, facing a heightened risk of displaced sleep. ©2015 Foundation Acta Paediatrica. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Risks, consequences, and prevention of falls of older people in oral healthcare centers.

Science.gov (United States)

de Baat, Cees; de Baat, Paul; Gerritsen, Anneloes E; Flohil, Karien A; van der Putten, Gert-Jan; van der Maarel-Wierink, Claar D

2017-03-01

One-third of community-dwelling people older than 65 years of age fall each year, and half of them fall at least twice a year. Older care home residents are approximately three times more likely to fall when compared to community-dwelling older people. Risk indicators for falls are related to the older people's body, environment, behavior, and activities. An important health risk indicator is (orthostatic or postprandial) hypotension, which may induce cerebral hypoperfusion. Although the majority of falls remain without major consequences, 10% to 25% of falls in care homes result in bodily trauma. Prevalent fall-related injuries are brain injury, lower extremity fracture including hip fracture and forearm/wrist fracture, facial fracture, humeral fracture, and rib/scapular fracture. As fall accidents by older people can have severe consequences, prevention of falls is of paramount importance. Healthcare providers, including oral healthcare providers, should inform older people on risks of falling and draw attention to potentially hazardous arrangements. © 2016 Special Care Dentistry Association and Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

A strategic surety roadmap for high consequence software

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pollock, G.M.; Dalton, L.J.

1995-12-31

A strategic surety roadmap for high consequence software systems developed under the High Integrity Software (HIS) Program at Sandia National Laboratories is presented. Selected research tracks are identified and described detailing current technology and outlining advancements to be pursued over the coming decade to reach HIS goals.

Delirium in cardiac surgery : A study on risk-assessment and long-term consequences

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hogen-Koster, S.

2011-01-01

BACKGROUND: Delirium or acute confusion is a temporary mental disorder, which occurs frequently among hospitalized elderly patients. Patients who undergo cardiac surgery have an increased risk of developing delirium. Delirium is associated with many negative consequences. Therefore, prevention or

The Unspoken Consequence of Command, Control Communications Technology: Enhanced Micromanagement by Risk-Averse Commanders

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Carozza, John

2004-01-01

.... However, along with its benefits, this command, control and communications (C3) network includes the dangerous consequence of eroding the autonomy of tactical command through enhanced micromanagement by risk-averse operational commanders...

Student-Generated Protective Behaviors to Avert Severe Harm Due to High-Risk Alcohol Consumption

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, Sandi W.; LaPlante, Carolyn; Wibert, Wilma Novales; Mayer, Alex; Atkin, Charles K.; Klein, Katherine; Glazer, Edward; Martell, Dennis

2011-01-01

High-risk alcohol consumption is a significant problem on college campuses that many students see as a rite of passage in their development into adulthood. Developing effective prevention campaigns designed to lessen or avert the risks associated with alcohol consumption entails understanding how students perceive harmful consequences as well as…

Postmastectomy irradiation in high-risk breast cancer patients

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Overgaard, M.; Juul Christensen, J.; Johansen, H.; Nybo-Rasmussen, A.; Brincker, H.; Kooy, P. van der; Frederiksen, P.L.; Laursen, F.; Panduro, J.; Soerensen, N.E.; Gadeberg, C.C.; Hjelm-Hansen, M.; Overgaard, J.; West Andersen, K.; Zedeler, K.

1988-01-01

All pre- and postmenopausal high-risk breast cancer patients in the protocols DBCG 77 of the Danish Breast Cancer Cooperative Group received postmastectomy irradiation before randomization to either adjuvant systemic therapy or no such treatment. The actuarial loco-regional recurrence rate at 9 years was 6-17%, with the lowest rate in patients who also received additional adjuvant chemotherapy or tamoxifen. In a subsequent study (DBCG 82) the role of postmastectomy irradiation together with systemic treatment was evaluated in high-risk patients. Pre- and menopausal patients were randomized to postmastectomy irradiation+CMF (cyclophosphamide, methotrexate, 5-fluorouracil), CMF alone or CMF+TAM (tamoxifen). Postmenopausal patients were randomized to postmastectomy irradiation+TAM, TAM or CMF+TAM. At 4 years the loco-regional recurrence rate was significantly lower in the irradiated patients (5-7% vs. 23-33%). Further, disease-free survival was significantly improved in both pre- and postmenopausal irradiated patients compared with those who had only systemic treatment. At present, there are no significant differences between survival in the treatment groups. Thus, adjuvant systemic treatment alone (chemotherapy and/or tamoxifen) did not prevent loco-regional recurrences in high-risk patients after mastectomy and axillary lymph node sampling. However, a longer observation time is necessary to evaluate the consequence of primary optimal loco-regional tumour control in high-risk breast cancer patients with respect to survival. (orig.)

Health and environmental risk-related impacts of actinide burning on high-level waste disposal

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Forsberg, C.W.

1992-05-01

The potential health and environmental risk-related impacts of actinide burning for high-level waste disposal were evaluated. Actinide burning, also called waste partitioning-transmutation, is an advanced method for radioactive waste management based on the idea of destroying the most toxic components in the waste. It consists of two steps: (1) selective removal of the most toxic radionuclides from high-level/spent fuel waste and (2) conversion of those radionuclides into less toxic radioactive materials and/or stable elements. Risk, as used in this report, is defined as the probability of a failure times its consequence. Actinide burning has two potential health and environmental impacts on waste management. Risks and the magnitude of high-consequence repository failure scenarios are decreased by inventory reduction of the long-term radioactivity in the repository. (What does not exist cannot create risk or uncertainty.) Risk may also be reduced by the changes in the waste characteristics, resulting from selection of waste forms after processing, that are superior to spent fuel and which lower the potential of transport of radionuclides from waste form to accessible environment. There are no negative health or environmental impacts to the repository from actinide burning; however, there may be such impacts elsewhere in the fuel cycle

Risk assessments for the disposal of high level radioactive wastes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, C.F.

1975-01-01

The risks associated with the disposal of high level wastes derive from the potential for release of radioactive materials into the environment. The assessment of these risks requires a methodology for risk analysis, an identification of the radioactive sources, and a method by which to express the relative hazard of the various radionuclides that comprise the high level waste. The development of a methodology for risk analysis is carried out after a review of previous work in the area of probabilistic risk assessment. The methodology suggested involves the probabilistic analysis of a general accident consequence distribution. In this analysis, the frequency aspect of the distribution is treated separately from the normalized probability function. At the final stage of the analysis, the frequency and probability characteristics of the distribution are recombined to provide an estimate of the risk. The characterization of the radioactive source term is accomplished using the ORIGEN computer code. Calculations are carried out for various reactor types and fuel cycles, and the overall waste hazard for a projected thirty-five year nuclear power program is determined

High Risk Behaviors in Marine Mammals: Linking Behavioral Responses to Anthropogenic Disturbance to Biological Consequences

Science.gov (United States)

2015-09-30

1 DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. High Risk Behaviors in Marine Mammals : Linking...comprehensive evaluation of biological safety zones for diving marine mammals . In this way we intend to identify those marine mammal species or specific...improving the protection of marine mammals during naval operations. OBJECTIVES We are testing the hypothesis that extreme behaviors requiring

Temporal framing and consideration of future consequences: effects on smokers' and at-risk nonsmokers' responses to cigarette health warnings.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Xiaoquan; Nan, Xiaoli; Iles, Irina Alexandra; Yang, Bo

2015-01-01

This research examines the influence of temporal framing (long-term vs. short-term) and individual difference in consideration of future consequences (CFC) on the effectiveness of cigarette health warnings among smokers and at-risk nonsmokers in a college population. An online experiment (N = 395) revealed a three-way interaction among temporal framing, CFC, and smoking status. The results among at-risk nonsmokers supported the temporal fit hypothesis--those high in CFC responded more favorably to long-term framing, whereas those low in CFC responded more positively to short-term framing. The findings among smokers revealed a different pattern in which short-term framing was more effective among high-CFC smokers, whereas among low-CFC smokers the framing effect was not distinct. Theoretical and practical implications of the findings are discussed.

Assessing Vulnerabilities, Risks, and Consequences of Damage to Critical Infrastructure

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Suski, N.; Wuest, C.

2011-01-01

Since the publication of 'Critical Foundations: Protecting America's Infrastructure,' there has been a keen understanding of the complexity, interdependencies, and shared responsibility required to protect the nation's most critical assets that are essential to our way of life. The original 5 sectors defined in 1997 have grown to 18 Critical Infrastructures and Key Resources (CIKR), which are discussed in the 2009 National Infrastructure Protection Plan (NIPP) and its supporting sector-specific plans. The NIPP provides the structure for a national program dedicated to enhanced protection and resiliency of the nation's infrastructure. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) provides in-depth, multi-disciplinary assessments of threat, vulnerability, and consequence across all 18 sectors at scales ranging from specific facilities to infrastructures spanning multi-state regions, such as the Oil and Natural Gas (ONG) sector. Like many of the CIKR sectors, the ONG sector is comprised of production, processing, distribution, and storage of highly valuable and potentially dangerous commodities. Furthermore, there are significant interdependencies with other sectors, including transportation, communication, finance, and government. Understanding the potentially devastating consequences and collateral damage resulting from a terrorist attack or natural event is an important element of LLNL's infrastructure security programs. Our work began in the energy sector in the late 1990s and quickly expanded other critical infrastructure sectors. We have performed over 600 physical assessments with a particular emphasis on those sectors that utilize, store, or ship potentially hazardous materials and for whom cyber security is important. The success of our approach is based on building awareness of vulnerabilities and risks and working directly with industry partners to collectively advance infrastructure protection. This approach consists of three phases: The Pre

Evaluation of severe accident risks: Quantification of major input parameters: MAACS [MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System] input

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sprung, J.L.; Jow, H-N; Rollstin, J.A.; Helton, J.C.

1990-12-01

Estimation of offsite accident consequences is the customary final step in a probabilistic assessment of the risks of severe nuclear reactor accidents. Recently, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission reassessed the risks of severe accidents at five US power reactors (NUREG-1150). Offsite accident consequences for NUREG-1150 source terms were estimated using the MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System (MACCS). Before these calculations were performed, most MACCS input parameters were reviewed, and for each parameter reviewed, a best-estimate value was recommended. This report presents the results of these reviews. Specifically, recommended values and the basis for their selection are presented for MACCS atmospheric and biospheric transport, emergency response, food pathway, and economic input parameters. Dose conversion factors and health effect parameters are not reviewed in this report. 134 refs., 15 figs., 110 tabs

Achieving strategic surety for high consequence software

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pollock, G.M.

1996-09-01

A strategic surety roadmap for high consequence software systems under the High Integrity Software (HIS) Program at Sandia National Laboratories guides research in identifying methodologies to improve software surety. Selected research tracks within this roadmap are identified and described detailing current technology and outlining advancements to be pursued over the coming decade to reach HIS goals. The tracks discussed herein focus on Correctness by Design, and System Immunology{trademark}. Specific projects are discussed with greater detail given on projects involving Correct Specification via Visualization, Synthesis, & Analysis; Visualization of Abstract Objects; and Correct Implementation of Components.

Proceedings of the High Consequence Operations Safety Symposium

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1994-12-01

Many organizations face high consequence safety situations where unwanted stimuli due to accidents, catastrophes, or inadvertent human actions can cause disasters. In order to improve interaction among such organizations and to build on each others` experience, preventive approaches, and assessment techniques, the High Consequence Operations Safety Symposium was held July 12--14, 1994 at Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, New Mexico. The symposium was conceived by Dick Schwoebel, Director of the SNL Surety Assessment Center. Stan Spray, Manager of the SNL System Studies Department, planned strategy and made many of the decisions necessary to bring the concept to fruition on a short time scale. Angela Campos and about 60 people worked on the nearly limitless implementation and administrative details. The initial symposium (future symposia are planned) was structured around 21 plenary presentations in five methodology-oriented sessions, along with a welcome address, a keynote address, and a banquet address. Poster papers addressing the individual session themes were available before and after the plenary sessions and during breaks.

Abnormal pelvic morphology and high cervical length are responsible for high-risk pregnancies in women displaying achondroplasia.

Science.gov (United States)

Vivanti, Alexandre J; Cordier, Anne-Gael; Baujat, Geneviève; Benachi, Alexandra

2016-12-05

Pregnancies of women displaying achondroplasia are at high risk of adverse events. Early sonographic assessment of affected women can indicate an unusually long cervical length. It is the consequence of pathological anatomy of the pelvis. Thus, there is a foreseeable dystocia owing to cephalopelvic disproportion. Furthermore, this situation could also complicate cervical ripening prior to fetal extraction.

Current drinking and health-risk behaviors among male high school students in central Thailand

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pichainarong Natchaporn

2011-04-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Alcohol drinking is frequently related to behavioral problems, which lead to a number of negative consequences. This study was to evaluate the characteristics of male high school students who drink, the drinking patterns among them, and the associations between current drinking and other health risk behaviors which focused on personal safety, violence-related behaviors, suicide and sexual behaviors. Method A cross-sectional study was conducted to explore current alcohol drinking and health-risk behaviors among male high school students in central Thailand. Five thousand one hundred and eighty four male students were classified into 2 groups according to drinking in the previous 30 days (yes = 631, no = 4,553. Data were collected by self-administered, anonymous questionnaire which consisted of 3 parts: socio-demographic factors, health-risk behaviors and alcohol drinking behavior during the past year from December 2007 to February 2008. Results The results showed that the percent of current drinking was 12.17. Most of them were 15-17 years (50.21%. Socio-demographic factors such as age, educational level, residence, cohabitants, grade point average (GPA, having a part time job and having family members with alcohol/drug problems were significantly associated with alcohol drinking (p Conclusions An increased risk of health-risk behaviors, including driving vehicles after drinking, violence-related behaviors, sad feelings and attempted suicide, and sexual behaviors was higher among drinking students that led to significant health problems. Effective intervention strategies (such as a campaign mentioning the adverse health effects and social consequences to the risk groups, and encouraging parental and community efforts to prevent drinking among adolescents should be implemented to prevent underage drinking and adverse consequences.

Evaluation of severe accident risks: Methodology for the containment, source term, consequence, and risk integration analyses. Volume 1, Revision 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gorham, E.D.; Breeding, R.J.; Brown, T.D.; Harper, F.T.; Helton, J.C.; Murfin, W.B.; Hora, S.C.

1993-12-01

NUREG-1150 examines the risk to the public from five nuclear power plants. The NUREG-1150 plant studies are Level III probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) and, as such, they consist of four analysis components: accident frequency analysis, accident progression analysis, source term analysis, and consequence analysis. This volume summarizes the methods utilized in performing the last three components and the assembly of these analyses into an overall risk assessment. The NUREG-1150 analysis approach is based on the following ideas: (1) general and relatively fast-running models for the individual analysis components, (2) well-defined interfaces between the individual analysis components, (3) use of Monte Carlo techniques together with an efficient sampling procedure to propagate uncertainties, (4) use of expert panels to develop distributions for important phenomenological issues, and (5) automation of the overall analysis. Many features of the new analysis procedures were adopted to facilitate a comprehensive treatment of uncertainty in the complete risk analysis. Uncertainties in the accident frequency, accident progression and source term analyses were included in the overall uncertainty assessment. The uncertainties in the consequence analysis were not included in this assessment. A large effort was devoted to the development of procedures for obtaining expert opinion and the execution of these procedures to quantify parameters and phenomena for which there is large uncertainty and divergent opinions in the reactor safety community

Ecological risk assessment of deep geological disposal of high-level nuclear waste

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hart, D.R.; Lush, D.L.; Acton, D.W.

1993-01-01

Contaminant fate and transport models, radiological dosimetry models, chemical dose-response models and population dynamic models were used to estimate ecological risks to moose and brook trout populations arising from a proposed high-level nuclear waste repository. Risks from potential contaminant releases were compared with risks from physical habitat alteration in constructing a repository and service community, and with risks from increased hunting and fish pressure in the area. For a reference environment typical of a proposed location somewhere in the Canadian Shield, preliminary results suggest that the population consequences of contaminant release will be minor relative to those of habitat alteration and natural resource use

Magnitude and consequences of undertreatment of high-risk patients with non-ST segment elevation acute coronary syndromes: insights from the DESCARTES Registry.

Science.gov (United States)

Heras, M; Bueno, H; Bardají, A; Fernández-Ortiz, A; Martí, H; Marrugat, J

2006-11-01

To analyse intensity of treatment of high-risk patients with non-ST elevation acute coronary syndromes (NSTEACS) included in the DESCARTES (Descripción del Estado de los Sindromes Coronarios Agudos en un Registro Temporal Español) registry. Patients with NSTEACS (n = 1877) admitted to 45 randomly selected Spanish hospitals in April and May 2002 were studied. Patients with ST segment depression and troponin rise were considered high risk (n = 478) and were compared with non-high risk patients (n = 1399). 46.9% of high-risk patients versus 39.5% of non-high-risk patients underwent angiography (p = 0.005), 23.2% versus 18.8% (p = 0.038) underwent percutaneous revascularisation, and 24.9% versus 7.4% (p or = 4, 2-3 and or = 4 (OR 2.87, 95% CI 1.27 to 6.52, p = 0.012). Class I recommended treatments were underused in high-risk patients in the DESCARTES registry. This undertreatment was an independent predictor of death of patients with an acute coronary syndrome.

RISKIND: A computer program for calculating radiological consequences and health risks from transportation of spent nuclear fuel

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yuan, Y.C. [Square Y Consultants, Orchard Park, NY (US); Chen, S.Y.; Biwer, B.M.; LePoire, D.J. [Argonne National Lab., IL (US)

1995-11-01

This report presents the technical details of RISKIND, a computer code designed to estimate potential radiological consequences and health risks to individuals and the collective population from exposures associated with the transportation of spent nuclear fuel. RISKIND is a user-friendly, interactive program that can be run on an IBM or equivalent personal computer under the Windows{trademark} environment. Several models are included in RISKIND that have been tailored to calculate the exposure to individuals under various incident-free and accident conditions. The incident-free models assess exposures from both gamma and neutron radiation and can account for different cask designs. The accident models include accidental release, atmospheric transport, and the environmental pathways of radionuclides from spent fuels; these models also assess health risks to individuals and the collective population. The models are supported by databases that are specific to spent nuclear fuels and include a radionuclide inventory and dose conversion factors. In addition, the flexibility of the models allows them to be used for assessing any accidental release involving radioactive materials. The RISKIND code allows for user-specified accident scenarios as well as receptor locations under various exposure conditions, thereby facilitating the estimation of radiological consequences and health risks for individuals. Median (50% probability) and typical worst-case (less than 5% probability of being exceeded) doses and health consequences from potential accidental releases can be calculated by constructing a cumulative dose/probability distribution curve for a complete matrix of site joint-wind-frequency data. These consequence results, together with the estimated probability of the entire spectrum of potential accidents, form a comprehensive, probabilistic risk assessment of a spent nuclear fuel transportation accident.

RISKIND: A computer program for calculating radiological consequences and health risks from transportation of spent nuclear fuel

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yuan, Y.C.; Chen, S.Y.; Biwer, B.M.; LePoire, D.J.

1995-11-01

This report presents the technical details of RISKIND, a computer code designed to estimate potential radiological consequences and health risks to individuals and the collective population from exposures associated with the transportation of spent nuclear fuel. RISKIND is a user-friendly, interactive program that can be run on an IBM or equivalent personal computer under the Windows trademark environment. Several models are included in RISKIND that have been tailored to calculate the exposure to individuals under various incident-free and accident conditions. The incident-free models assess exposures from both gamma and neutron radiation and can account for different cask designs. The accident models include accidental release, atmospheric transport, and the environmental pathways of radionuclides from spent fuels; these models also assess health risks to individuals and the collective population. The models are supported by databases that are specific to spent nuclear fuels and include a radionuclide inventory and dose conversion factors. In addition, the flexibility of the models allows them to be used for assessing any accidental release involving radioactive materials. The RISKIND code allows for user-specified accident scenarios as well as receptor locations under various exposure conditions, thereby facilitating the estimation of radiological consequences and health risks for individuals. Median (50% probability) and typical worst-case (less than 5% probability of being exceeded) doses and health consequences from potential accidental releases can be calculated by constructing a cumulative dose/probability distribution curve for a complete matrix of site joint-wind-frequency data. These consequence results, together with the estimated probability of the entire spectrum of potential accidents, form a comprehensive, probabilistic risk assessment of a spent nuclear fuel transportation accident

Risk and Protective Factors Associated with Gambling Consequences for Indigenous Australians in North Queensland

Science.gov (United States)

Breen, Helen M.

2012-01-01

The purpose of this paper was to examine risk and protective factors associated with the consequences of card gambling and commercial gambling for Indigenous Australians in north Queensland. With Indigenous Elders' approval and using qualitative methodology, semi-structured interviews were conducted with 60 Indigenous and 48 non-Indigenous…

A risk measurement tool for an underground electricity distribution system considering the consequences and uncertainties of manhole events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garcez, Thalles Vitelli; Teixeira de Almeida, Adiel

2014-01-01

This paper explores a risk measure of underground vaults that considers the consequences of arc faults. The increasing use of underground systems, together with the aging of networks, the lack of maintenance and interference from other (third party) underground systems nearby have caused many accidents in urban areas, thus endangering human life. The involvement of a large number (hundreds or thousands) of underground vaults with different characteristics, the lack of historical data on modes of failure, the rarity of the occurrence of some faults, the magnitude of their consequences and the involvement of a complex environment surrounding the hazard zone make risk management even more complex and uncertain. Furthermore, given that the (monetary, time, staff, etc.) resources of an electrical power company are limited and scarce, it is necessary to use decision-making tools that aggregate the consequences and the uncertainties to assess the risks jointly with the preference structure of the company, thus solving the problem more realistically. Therefore, this paper puts forward the use of an additional risk analysis for manhole events in underground electrical distribution networks with a view to its being used as a decision aid tool in risk management. As an illustration of the use of the risk measurement tool proposed, a numerical application is presented. The result rather than showing a ranking of underground vaults, gives a measure of the risk used that can show the decision-maker (DM) how much better one group of alternatives (formed by alternatives with quite similar risk values) is than other groups, based on the DM’s attitude to risk and grounded on the axiomatic structure of utility theory. - Highlights: • The paper proposes a risk measure of underground vaults for manhole events. • It makes risk analysis in underground electrical distribution networks. • It makes more than show a risk ranking of underground vaults. • It can show to the DM how

High-Risk Cutaneous Squamous Cell Carcinoma of the Head and Neck

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael J. Veness

2007-01-01

Full Text Available Nonmelanoma skin cancers (squamous cell and basal cell carcinomas occur at an epidemic rate in many countries with the worldwide incidence increasing. The sun-exposed head and neck are the most frequent sites for these cancers to arise and in most patients diagnosed with a cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma, local treatment is usually curative. However, a subset is diagnosed with a high-risk cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma. High-risk factors include size (> 2 cm, thickness/depth of invasion (> 4 mm, recurrent lesions, the presence of perineural invasion, location near the parotid gland, and immunosuppression. These patients have a higher risk (> 10–20% of developing metastases to regional lymph nodes (often parotid nodes, and in some cases also of experiencing local morbidity (perineural invasion, based on unfavourable primary lesion and patient factors. Despite treatment, many patients developing metastatic cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma experience mortality and morbidity usually as a consequence of uncontrolled metastatic nodal disease. It is therefore important that clinicians treating nonmelanoma skin cancers have an understanding and awareness of these high-risk patients. The aim of this article is to discuss the factors that define a high-risk patient and to present some of the issues pertinent to their management.

Evaluation of sanitary consequences of Chernobylsk accident in France. Epidemiological surveillance plan, state of knowledge, risks evaluation and perspectives; Evaluation des consequences sanitaires de l'accident de Tchernobyl en France. Dispositif de surveillance epidemiologique, etat des connaissances, evaluation des risques et perspectives

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Verger, P.; Cherie-Challine, L

2000-12-15

This report jointly written by IPSN and InVS, reviews the sanitary consequences in France of the Chernobyl accident, which occurred in 1986. The first point is dedicated to a short presentation of the knowledge relative to the sanitary consequences of the Chernobyl accident in the high contaminated countries and to the risk factors of the thyroid cancer. Secondly, this report describes the main systems of epidemiological surveillance of health implemented in France in 1986 and in 1999, as well as the data of the incidence and mortality of thyroid cancer observed in France since 1975. In addition, this report presents an analysis of the risk of thyroid cancer related to radioactive contamination in France, for young people of less than 15 years of age who where living in 1986 in the highest contaminated areas of France (Eastern territories). For this purpose, the theoretical number of thyroid cancers in excess is evaluated for this population, on the basis of different available risk model. Finally starting from the results of risk assessment, there is a discussion about the relevance and the feasibility of different epidemiological methods in view of answering the questions related to the sanitary consequences of the Chernobyl accident. In conclusion, this report recommends to reinforce the surveillance of thyroid cancer in France. (author)

Integrating mHealth Mobile Applications to Reduce High Risk Drinking among Underage Students

Science.gov (United States)

Kazemi, Donna M.; Cochran, Allyson R.; Kelly, John F.; Cornelius, Judith B.; Belk, Catherine

2014-01-01

Objective: College students embrace mobile cell phones (MCPs) as a primary communication and entertainment device. The aim of this study was to investigate college students' perceptions toward using mHealth technology to deliver interventions to prevent high-risk drinking and associated consequences. Design/setting: Four focus group interviews…

THE IMPORTANCE OF AFFECT TO BUILD CONSUMER TRUST IN HIGH-CONSEQUENCES EXCHANGES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mellina da Silva Terres

2012-12-01

Full Text Available The present article investigates the importance of affect displayed by service provider to build consumer trust in high consequence exchanges. High-consequence exchanges are difficult situations in which the choices present a dilemma that can cause stress and severe emotional reactions (KAHN; LUCE, 2003. In this specific case, trust based on affect seems to become important; mainly because consumers may not have ability to evaluate the cognitive aspects of the situation, and moreover, a medical services failure can be highly problematic or even fatal (LEISEN; HYMAN, 2004. On the other hand, in low-consequence choices, we are predicting that cognition will be more important than affect in building trust. In this kind of situation, patients are more self-confident, less sensitive, and don’t perceive a high probability of loss (KUNREUTHER et al., 2002, and therefore focuses more on the rational outcomes.

High-Risk List

Science.gov (United States)

2017-01-01

economy. The World Bank has said that “corruption creates an unfavorable business environment by undermining the operation efficiency of firms and... Bank Began as ‘Ponzi Scheme,’” 11/27/2012. 64 Independent Joint Anti-Corruption Monitoring and Evaluation Committee, Unfinished Business : The Follow...HIGH RISK AREA 7: Oversight 51 HIGH-RISK AREA 8: Strategy and Planning 55 CONCLUSION HIGH RISK LIST I JANUARY 11, 2017 2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Re-assessment of road accident data-analysis policy : applying theory from involuntary, high-consequence, low-probability events like nuclear power plant meltdowns to voluntary, low-consequence, high-probability events like traffic accidents

Science.gov (United States)

2002-02-01

This report examines the literature on involuntary, high-consequence, low-probability (IHL) events like nuclear power plant meltdowns to determine what can be applied to the problem of voluntary, low-consequence high-probability (VLH) events like tra...

The Unequal Consequences of Mass Incarceration for Children.

Science.gov (United States)

Turney, Kristin

2017-02-01

A growing literature has documented the mostly deleterious intergenerational consequences of paternal incarceration, but less research has considered heterogeneity in these relationships. In this article, I use data from the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study (N = 3,065) to estimate the heterogeneous relationship between paternal incarceration and children's problem behaviors (internalizing behaviors, externalizing behaviors, and early juvenile delinquency) and cognitive skills (reading comprehension, math comprehension, and verbal ability) in middle childhood. Taking into account children's risk of experiencing paternal incarceration, measured by the social contexts in which children are embedded (e.g., father's residential status, poverty, neighborhood disadvantage) reveals that the consequences-across all outcomes except early juvenile delinquency-are more deleterious for children with relatively low risks of exposure to paternal incarceration than for children with relatively high risks of exposure to paternal incarceration. These findings suggest that the intergenerational consequences of paternal incarceration are more complicated than documented in previous research and, more generally, suggest that research on family inequality consider both differential selection into treatments and differential responses to treatments.

Childhood Obesity Causes & Consequences

Science.gov (United States)

... and Local Programs Related Topics Diabetes Nutrition Childhood Obesity Causes & Consequences Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir ... determine how a community is designed. Consequences of Obesity More Immediate Health Risks Obesity during childhood can ...

Limit lines for risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cox, D.C.; Baybutt, P.

1982-01-01

Approaches to the regulation of risk from technological systems, such as nuclear power plants or chemical process plants, in which potential accidents may result in a broad range of adverse consequences must take into account several different aspects of risk. These include overall or average risk, accidents posing high relative risks, the rate at which accident probability decreases with increasing accident consequences, and the impact of high frequency, low consequence accidents. A hypothetical complementary cumulative distribution function (CCDF), with appropriately chosen parametric form, meets all these requirements. The Farmer limit line, by contrast, places limits on the risks due to individual accident sequences, and cannot adequately account for overall risk. This reduces its usefulness as a regulatory tool. In practice, the CCDF is used in the Canadian nuclear licensing process, while the Farmer limit line approach, supplemented by separate qualitative limits on overall risk, is employed in the United Kingdom

High-school software development project helps increasing students' awareness of geo-hydrological hazards and their risks

Science.gov (United States)

Marchesini, Ivan; Rossi, Mauro; Balducci, Vinicio; Salvati, Paola; Guzzetti, Fausto; Bianchini, Andrea; Grzeleswki, Emanuell; Canonico, Andrea; Coccia, Rita; Fiorucci, Gianni Mario; Gobbi, Francesca; Ciuchetti, Monica

2015-04-01

In Italy, inundation and landslides are widespread phenomena that impact the population and cause significant economic damage to private and public properties. The perception of the risk posed by these natural geo-hydrological hazards varies geographically and in time. The variation in the perception of the risks has negative consequences on risk management, and limits the adoption of effective risk reduction strategies. We maintain that targeted education can foster the understanding of geo-hydrological hazards, improving their perception and the awareness of the associated risk. Collaboration of a research center experienced in geo-hydrological hazards and risks (CNR IRPI, Perugia) and a high school (ITIS Alessandro Volta, Perugia) has resulted in the design and execution of a project aimed at improving the perception of geo-hydrological risks in high school students and teachers through software development. In the two-year project, students, high school teachers and research scientists have jointly developed software broadly related to landslide and flood hazards. User requirements and system specifications were decided to facilitate the distribution and use of the software among students and their peers. This allowed a wider distribution of the project results. We discuss two prototype software developed by the high school students, including an application of augmented reality for improved dissemination of information of landslides and floods with human consequences in Italy, and a crowd science application to allow students (and others, including their families and friends) to collect information on landslide and flood occurrence exploiting modern mobile devices. This information can prove important e.g., for the validation of landslide forecasting models.

Incidental Parathyroidectomy during Total Thyroidectomy: Risk Factors and Consequences

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dimitrios K. Manatakis

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Objective. To evaluate the incidence of accidental parathyroidectomy in our series of total thyroidectomies, to investigate its clinical and biochemical consequences, and to identify potential risk factors. Methods. Patients who underwent total thyroidectomy between January 2006 and December 2015 were retrospectively analyzed. Pathology reports were reviewed to identify those cases who had an incidental parathyroidectomy and these were compared to patients with no parathyroidectomy, in terms of clinical (age, sex, and symptoms of hypocalcemia, pathological (thyroid specimen weight, Hashimoto thyroiditis, and malignancy, and biochemical (serum calcium and phosphate levels factors. Results. 281 patients underwent total thyroidectomy during the study period. Incidental parathyroidectomy was noticed in 24.9% of cases, with 44.3% of parathyroid glands found in an intrathyroidal location. Evidence of postoperative biochemical hypocalcemia was noticed in 28.6% of patients with parathyroidectomy, compared with 13.3% in the no-parathyroidectomy group (p=0.003. Symptomatic hypocalcemia was observed in 5.7% and 3.8%, respectively (p=0.49. Age, sex, thyroid specimen weight, Hashimoto thyroiditis, and malignancy did not differ significantly between the two groups. Conclusions. Our study found an association of incidental parathyroidectomy with transient postoperative biochemical hypocalcemia, but not with clinically symptomatic disease. Age, sex, thyroid gland weight, Hashimoto thyroiditis, and malignancy were not identified as risk factors.

Climatic change in Germany. Development, consequences, risks and perspectives; Klimawandel in Deutschland. Entwicklung, Folgen, Risiken und Perspektiven

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Brasseur, Guy [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg (Germany); Jacob, Daniela; Schuck-Zoeller, Susanne (eds.) [Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Hamburg (Germany). Climate Service Center Germany

2017-06-01

The book on the climatic change in Germany includes contributions to the following issues: global climate projections and regional projections in Germany and Europe: observation of the climatic change in Central Europe, regional climate modeling, limits and challenges of the regional climate modeling; climatic change in Germany - regional features and extremes: temperature and heat waves, precipitation, wind and cyclones, sea-level increase, tides, storm floods and sea state, floods, definition uncertainties, draughts, forest fires, natural risks; consequences of the climatic change in Germany: air quality, health, biodiversity, water resources, biochemical cycles, agriculture, forestry, soils, personal and commercial transport, cities and urban regions, tourism, infrastructure, energy and water supplies, cost of the climatic change and economic consequences; overall risks and uncertainties: assessment of vulnerabilities, literature review, climatic change as risk enhancement in complex systems, overall risks and uncertainties, decision making under uncertainties in complex systems; integrated strategies for the adaptation to the climatic change: the climate resilient society - transformations and system changes, adaptation to the climatic change as new political field, options for adaptation strategies.

Risk assessment and consequence modeling of BLEVE explosion wave phenomenon of LPG spherical tank in a refinery

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mohammad Kamaei

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Introduction: Although human industrial activities are as a part of efforts to achieve greater prosperity, the risks related to these activities are also expanding. Hazard identification and risk assessment in the oil and gas industries are essential to reduce the frequency and severity of accidents and minimize damage to people and property before their occurrence. The aim of this study was to evaluate the liquefied and pressurized petroleum gas spherical tanks in a refinery and assessing the risks of Boiling Liquid Expanding Vapor Explosion (BLEVE phenomenon. Material and Method: In this study, the risks of BLEVE phenomenon were assessed, using the Bowtie method. The consequences of explosion wave phenomenon and the resulting wave quantity and its impacts on the neighboring machineries and equipment were analyzed. PHAST software version 6.54 has been used for modeling the BLEVE phenomenon. Result: In this evaluation, generally five causes and two consequences were identified for BLEVE phenomenon. In order to reduce its consequences, forty-three controlling measures were introduced to prevent the BLEVE phenomenon and the impacts of 31 control measures were identified. According to the conducted analysis, it was found that the spherical tank blast wave caused by LPG can lead to explosion of close located tanks which can create a chain of explosions. Conclusion: The results of modeling and risk assessment can be used to identify the BLEVE phenomenon causes and its effects on nearby people and equipment. Based on these results, preventive controlling measures can be implemented and also be determined by adopting proper design and layout, margin of safety for personnel, equipment and accessories.

Financial system loss as an example of high consequence, high frequency events

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

McGovern, D.E.

1996-07-01

Much work has been devoted to high consequence events with low frequency of occurrence. Characteristic of these events are bridge failure (such as that of the Tacoma Narrows), building failure (such as the collapse of a walkway at a Kansas City hotel), or compromise of a major chemical containment system (such as at Bhopal, India). Such events, although rare, have an extreme personal, societal, and financial impact. An interesting variation is demonstrated by financial losses due to fraud and abuse in the money management system. The impact can be huge, entailing very high aggregate costs, but these are a result of the contribution of many small attacks and not the result of a single (or few) massive events. Public awareness is raised through publicized events such as the junk bond fraud perpetrated by Milikin or gross mismanagement in the failure of the Barings Bank through unsupervised trading activities by Leeson in Singapore. These event,s although seemingly large (financial losses may be on the order of several billion dollars), are but small contributors to the estimated $114 billion loss to all types of financial fraud in 1993. This paper explores the magnitude of financial system losses and identifies new areas for analysis of high consequence events including the potential effect of malevolent intent.

On risk assessment of high level radioactive waste disposal

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, C.F.; Kastenberg, W.E.

1976-01-01

One of the major concerns with the continued growth of the nuclear power industry is the production of the high level radioactive wastes. The risks associated with the disposal of these wastes derives from the potential for release of radioactive materials into the environment. The development of a methodology for risk analysis is carried out. The methodology suggested involves the probabilistic analysis of a general accident consequence distribution. In this analysis, the frequency aspect of the distribution is treated separately from the normalized probability function. In the final stage of the analysis, the frequency and probability characteristics of the distribution are recombined to provide an estimate of the risk. The characterization of the radioactive source term is accomplished using the ORIGEN computer code. Calculations are carried out for various reactor types and fuel cycles, and the overall waste hazard for a projected 35 year nuclear power program is determined. An index of relative nuclide hazard appropriate to problems involving the management of high level radioactive wastes is developed. As an illustration of the methodology, risk analyses are made for two proposed methods for waste management: extraterrestrial disposal and interim surface storage. The results of these analyses indicate that, within the assumptions used, the risks of these management schemes are small compared with natural background radiation doses. (Auth.)

Mining geriatric assessment data for in-patient fall prediction models and high-risk subgroups

OpenAIRE

Marschollek, Michael; Gövercin, Mehmet; Rust, Stefan; Gietzelt, Matthias; Schulze, Mareike; Wolf, Klaus-Hendrik; Steinhagen-Thiessen, Elisabeth

2012-01-01

Abstract Background Hospital in-patient falls constitute a prominent problem in terms of costs and consequences. Geriatric institutions are most often affected, and common screening tools cannot predict in-patient falls consistently. Our objectives are to derive comprehensible fall risk classification models from a large data set of geriatric in-patients' assessment data and to evaluate their predictive performance (aim#1), and to identify high-risk subgroups from the data (aim#2). Methods A ...

High plasma uric acid concentration: causes and consequences

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

de Oliveira Erick

2012-04-01

Full Text Available Abstract High plasma uric acid (UA is a precipitating factor for gout and renal calculi as well as a strong risk factor for Metabolic Syndrome and cardiovascular disease. The main causes for higher plasma UA are either lower excretion, higher synthesis or both. Higher waist circumference and the BMI are associated with higher insulin resistance and leptin production, and both reduce uric acid excretion. The synthesis of fatty acids (tryglicerides in the liver is associated with the de novo synthesis of purine, accelerating UA production. The role played by diet on hyperuricemia has not yet been fully clarified, but high intake of fructose-rich industrialized food and high alcohol intake (particularly beer seem to influence uricemia. It is not known whether UA would be a causal factor or an antioxidant protective response. Most authors do not consider the UA as a risk factor, but presenting antioxidant function. UA contributes to > 50% of the antioxidant capacity of the blood. There is still no consensus if UA is a protective or a risk factor, however, it seems that acute elevation is a protective factor, whereas chronic elevation a risk for disease.

Radiation accidents with global consequences for the population. Problems of risk evaluation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vasilev, G.; Doncheva, B.; Stoilova, S.; Miloslavov, V.; Tsenova, T.; Novkirishki, V.

1987-01-01

The theoretical problems concerning the delayed impacts as a result of considerable radiation accidents are discussed. The attention is paid to the maximum individual doses which are relatively low but many people are affected. In these cases, the risk evaluation is based on the cancerogenesis, genetic and teratogenetic consequences among the concerned population. The main equation of the linear threshold-free model 'dose effect' is subjected to analysis. Considering the real prognostic importance of this equation the following recommendations are made: further observation on epidemic diseases; investigation of teratogenetic consequences in connection with the radiation doses obtained during the antenatal development; radiation-hygienic standardization of the oral absorbtion of radionuclides for short and long periods of time; effective equivalent dose determination according to the irradiated organ or tissue (mammary glands, lungs, red marrow, gonads, skin); necessity of national system for in time announcement of radiation accidents, as well as suitable control of the internal and the external irradiation

An Examination of the Relationship between Consequence-Specific Normative Belief Patterns and Alcohol-Related Consequences among College Students

Science.gov (United States)

Reavy, Racheal; Cleveland, Michael J.; Mallett, Kimberly A.; Scaglione, Nichole M.; Sell, Nichole M.; Turrisi, Rob

2016-01-01

Background Research has previously identified a high-risk subgroup of college students who experience high levels of multiple and repeated alcohol-related consequences (MRC group). The purpose of this study was to examine the association between consequence-specific normative influences and experiencing multiple and repeated drinking-related consequences using a person-centered approach. Normative subgroups were identified using latent profile analysis (LPA), which were then used to predict MRC group status at 6-month follow-up. Methods First-year college student drinkers (N=2024) at a large northeastern university completed online surveys during the fall and spring semesters of their freshman year. Retention was high with 92% of invited participants completing T2, of which the MRC group accounted for 27%. Results Three student profiles were identified from LPA on T1 data: Non Permissive Parents (77%), Positive Peer and Parent Norms (20%), and Permissive Parents (3%). Logistic regression revealed that both the Positive Peer and Parent Norms and Permissive Parents profiles had significantly higher odds of MRC group membership at follow-up (1.81 and 2.78 times greater, respectively). Conclusions The results suggest value in prevention efforts that include normative beliefs about alcohol-related consequences. Further, parental norms in particular have the potential to enhance interventions, especially through direct communication of disapproval for experiencing consequences. PMID:27805274

A Risk Management Framework to Characterize Black Swan Risks: A Case Study of Lightning Effects on Insensitive High Explosives

Science.gov (United States)

Sanders, Gary A.

Effective and efficient risk management processes include the use of high fidelity modeling and simulation during the concept exploration phase as part of the technology and risk assessment activities, with testing and evaluation tasks occurring in later design development phases. However, some safety requirements and design architectures may be dominated by the low probability/high consequence "Black Swan" vulnerabilities that require very early testing to characterize and efficiently mitigate. Failure to address these unique risks has led to catastrophic systems failures including the space shuttle Challenger, Deepwater Horizon, Fukushima nuclear reactor, and Katrina dike failures. Discovering and addressing these risks later in the design and development process can be very costly or even lead to project cancellation. This paper examines the need for risk management process adoption of early hazard phenomenology testing to inform the technical risk assessment, requirements definition and conceptual design. A case study of the lightning design vulnerability of the insensitive high explosives being used in construction, mining, demolition, and defense industries will be presented to examine the impact of this vulnerability testing during the concept exploration phase of the design effort. While these insensitive high explosives are far less sensitive to accidental initiation by fire, impact, friction or even electrical stimuli, their full range of sensitivities have not been characterized and ensuring safe engineering design and operations during events such as lightning storms requires vulnerability testing during the risk assessment phase.

Psychological consequences of screening for cardiovascular risk factors in an un-selected general population

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Løkkegaard, Thomas; S. Andersen, John; K. Jacobsen, Rikke

2015-01-01

Background: Concerns that general health checks, including screening for risk factors to ischemic heart disease (IHD),have negative psychological consequences seem widely unfounded; however, previous studies are only based on selfreports from participants. Aim: To investigate if risk factor...... screening in healthy adults leads to mental distress in the study population, independent of participation. Methods: The Inter99 study (1999 – 2006) was a randomised intervention in the general population, aiming to prevent IHD by a healthier lifestyle. We included the whole study population, independent......-screening of psychological status did not influence the psychological impact of screening. Conclusions: This large, randomised intervention study supports that screening for risk factors to IHD does not increase mental distress, not even in the mentally or socioeconomically most vulnerable persons.This study included...

Withdrawal rates as a consequence of disclosure of risk associated with manipulation of the cervical spine

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Forrest Lianne

2010-10-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The risk associated with cervical manipulation is controversial. Research in this area is widely variable but as yet the risk is not easily quantifiable. This presents a problem when informing the patient of risks when seeking consent and information may be withheld due to the fear of patient withdrawal from care. As yet, there is a lack of research into the frequency of risk disclosure and consequent withdrawal from manipulative treatment as a result. This study seeks to investigate the reality of this and to obtain insight into the attitudes of chiropractors towards informed consent and disclosure. Methods Questionnaires were posted to 200 UK chiropractors randomly selected from the register of the General Chiropractic Council. Results A response rate of 46% (n = 92 was achieved. Thirty-three per cent (n = 30 respondents were female and the mean number of years in practice was 10. Eighty-eight per cent considered explanation of the risks associated with any recommended treatment important when obtaining informed consent. However, only 45% indicated they always discuss this with patients in need of cervical manipulation. When asked whether they believed discussing the possibility of a serious adverse reaction to cervical manipulation could increase patient anxiety to the extent there was a strong possibility the patient would refuse treatment, 46% said they believed this could happen. Nonetheless, 80% said they believed they had a moral/ethical obligation to disclose risk associated with cervical manipulation despite these concerns. The estimated number of withdrawals throughout respondents' time in practice was estimated at 1 patient withdrawal for every 2 years in practice. Conclusion The withdrawal rate from cervical manipulation as a direct consequence of the disclosure of associated serious risks appears unfounded. However, notwithstanding legal obligations, reluctance to disclose risk due to fear of increasing patient

Evaluation of sanitary consequences of Chernobyl accident in France: epidemiological monitoring device, state of knowledge, evaluation of risks and perspectives

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Verger, P.; Champion, D.; Gourmelon, P.; Hubert, Ph.; Joly, J.; Renaud, Ph.; Tirmarche, M.; Vidal, M.; Cherie-Challine, L.; Boutou, O.; Isnard, H.; Jouan, M.; Pirard, Ph.

2000-12-01

The objectives of this document are firstly, to present the situation of knowledge both on the sanitary consequences of the Chernobyl accident and on the risk factors of thyroid cancers, these ones constituting one of the most principal consequences observed in Belarus, in Ukraine and Russia; secondly, the give the principal system contributing to the epidemiological surveillance of effects coming from a exposure to ionizing radiations, in France and to give the knowledge on incidence and mortality of thyroid cancer in France; thirdly, to discuss the pertinence and the feasibility of epidemiological approaches that could be considered to answer questions that the public and authorities ask relatively to the sanitary consequences of Chernobyl accident in France; fourthly to male a calculation of thyroid cancer risk in relation with Chernobyl fallout in France from works and studies made from 1986 on the consequences of this disaster in terms of radioecology and dosimetry at the national level. Besides, the improvement of thyroid cancer surveillance is also tackled. (N.C.)

Risk-oriented analysis of the German prototype fast breeder reactor SNR-300: off-site accident consequence model and results of the study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bayer, A.; Ehrhardt, J.

1984-01-01

Accident off-site consequence calculations and risk assessments performed for the ''risk oriented analysis'' of the German prototype fast breeder reactor SNR-300 were performed with a modified version of the off-site accident consequence model UFOMOD. The modifications mainly relate to the deposition and resuspension processes, the ingestion model, and the dose factors. Consequence calculations at the site of Kalkar on the Rhine River were performed for 115 weather sequences in 36 wind directions. They were based on seven release categories evaluated for the SNR-300 with two different fueling strategies: plutonium from Magnox reactors only and plutonium from light water reactors and Magnox reactors. In parallel, the corresponding frequencies of occurrence are determined. The following results are generated: 1. complementary cumulative frequency distribution functions for collective fatalities and collective doses 2. expected values of the collective fatalities and collective doses as well as distance-dependent expected values of individual fatality 3. contributions of the different exposure pathways to fatalities with respect to the various organs. For comparison with the risk of a PWR-1300, calculations for the PWR-1300 of the ''German Risk Study'' were repeated with the same modified consequence model. Comparison shows that smaller risks result for the SNR-300. However, the confidence interval bandwidths obtained for the frequencies of the release categories for the SNR-300 are larger than those of the PWR-1300

Interpersonal Problem-Solving Skills, Executive Function and Learning Potential in Preadolescents with High/Low Family Risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Mata, Sara; Gómez-Pérez, M Mar; Molinero, Clara; Calero, M Dolores

2017-10-30

Situations generated by high family risk have a negative effect on personal development, especially during preadolescence. Growing up in the presence of risk factors can lead to negative consequences on mental health or on school performance. The objective of this study focuses on individual factors related to this phenomenon during preadolescence. Specifically, we seek to establish whether level of family risk (high vs. low risk) is related to interpersonal problem-solving skills, executive function and learning potential in a sample of preadolescents controlling age, sex, total IQ, verbal comprehension ability and the classroom influences. The participants were 40 children, 23 boys and 17 girls between the ages of 7 and 12, twenty of which had a record on file with the Social and Childhood Protection Services of Information deleted to maintain the integrity of the review process, and therefore, a high family risk situation. The other 20 participants had a low family risk situation. Results show that the preadolescents from high family risk performed worse on interpersonal solving-problem skills and executive function (p family risk. These results highlight the negative effects of high family risk situation in preadolescents and give value of taking into account protective factors such as learning potential when assessing preadolescents from high family risk.

Spent fuel transport in Romania by road: An approach considering safety, risk and radiological consequences

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vieru, G.

2001-01-01

The transport of high-level radioactive wastes, involving Type B packages, is a part of the safety of the Romanian waste management programme and the overall aim of this activity is to promote the safe transport of radioactive materials in Romania. The paper presents a safety case analysis of the transport of a single spent fuel CANDU bundle, using a Romanian built Type B package, from the CANDU type nuclear power plant Cernavoda to the INR Pitesti, in order to be examined within INR's hot-cells facilities. The safety assessment includes the following main aspects: (1) evaluation and analysis of available data on road traffic accidents; (2) estimation of the expected frequency for severe road accident scenarios resulting in potential radionuclide release; and (3) evaluation of the expected radiological consequences and accident risks of transport operations. (author)

Risk factors for fatigue in shipping, the consequences for seafarers’ health and options for preventive intervention

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jepsen, Jørgen Riis; Zhao, Zhiwei; Pekcan, Claire

2017-01-01

fatigue. A literature study was conducted aimed at collecting publications that address risk factors for fatigue, short-term and long-term consequences for health and safety, and options for fatigue mitigation at sea. Due to the limited number of publications that deal with seafarers, experiences from...

Risk assessment methodology for Hanford high-level waste tanks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bott, T.F.; Mac Farlane, D.R.; Stack, D.W.; Kindinger, J.

1992-01-01

A methodology is presented for applying Probabilistic Safety Assessment techniques to quantification of the health risks posed by the high-level waste (HLW) underground tanks at the Department of Energy's Hanford reservation. This methodology includes hazard screening development of a list of potential accident initiators, systems fault trees development and quantification, definition of source terms for various release categories, and estimation of health consequences from the releases. Both airborne and liquid pathway releases to the environment, arising from aerosol and spill/leak releases from the tanks, are included in the release categories. The proposed methodology is intended to be applied to a representative subset of the total of 177 tanks, thereby providing a baseline risk profile for the HLW tank farm that can be used for setting clean-up/remediation priorities. Some preliminary results are presented for Tank 101-SY

The reality of life safety consequence classification

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hartford, D.N.D.; Assaf, H.; Kerr, I.R.

1999-01-01

Because empirical methods of consequence estimation were not designed for application in risk analysis for dam safety, BC Hydro developed its own method for determining loss of life due to dam failures as part of the development of the risk analysis process. Because loss of life estimation for consequence classification entails the generation of essentially the same information, the method can also be used to determine the consequence category of the dam for life safety considerations, and the model can be extended to third party property damage. The methodology adopted for dealing with life safety differs considerably from the empirical approach by modelling the response of the downstream population to a dam failure flood. The algorithm simulates the response of various groups of populations to the warnings of dam failure and the physical process of fleeing from the areas of potential innundation. Assessing the life safety consequences of dam failure is a first step in estimating dam safety in terms of CDA Guidelines, and empirical methods in use are not suitable for determining loss of life due to dam failures. The process described herein is the only physically based method available for estimating loss of life due to dam failures required by the Dam Safety Guidelines. The model is transparent, logically sound, and has been peer reviewed. The method provides a rational basis for the first step in performing safety assessments of dams in terms of the Guidelines, particularly high consequence dams. 8 refs., 3 figs

Adolescent childbearing: consequences and interventions.

Science.gov (United States)

Ruedinger, Emily; Cox, Joanne E

2012-08-01

Adolescent childbearing in the United States continues to occur at high rates compared with other industrialized nations, despite a recent decline. Adolescent mothers and their offspring are at risk for negative outcomes. Recent literature exploring the consequences of teenage childbearing and interventions to ameliorate these consequences are presented. Negative consequences of adolescent childbearing can impact mothers and their offspring throughout the lifespan. These consequences are likely attributable to social and environmental factors rather than solely to maternal age. Increasing educational attainment, preventing repeat pregnancy and improving mother-child interactions can improve outcomes for mothers and their children. Home, community, school and clinic-based programs are all viable models of service delivery to this population. Connecting teen mothers with comprehensive services to meet their social, economic, health and educational needs can potentially improve long-term outcomes for both mothers and their offspring. Programs that deliver care to this population in culturally sensitive, developmentally appropriate ways have demonstrated success. Future investigation of parenting interventions with larger sample sizes and that assess multiple outcomes will allow comparison among programs. Explorations of the role of the father and coparenting are also directions for future research.

FDA publishes checklist of Y2K high-risk devices.

Science.gov (United States)

1999-09-01

Key points. The federal Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has developed a list of types of medical devices that have the potential for the most serious consequences for patients should they fail because of Y2K-related problems. This list of computer-controlled potentially high-risk devices can provide a guide to health care facilities regarding the types of devices that should receive priority in their assessment and remediation of medical devices. The list may change as the FDA receives comments on the types of devices included in the list.

Consequences of severe nuclear accidents in Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Seibert, Petra; Arnold, Delia; Mraz, Gabriele; Arnold, Nikolaus; Gufler, Klaus; Kromp-Kolb, Helga; Kromp, Wolfgang; Sutter, Philipp

2013-04-01

A first part of the presentation is devoted to the consequences of the severe accident in the 1986 Chernobyl NPP. It lead to a substantial radioactive contaminated of large parts of Europe and thus raised the awareness for off-site nuclear accident consequences. Spatial patterns of the (transient) contamination of the air and (persistent) contamination of the ground were studied by both measurements and model simulations. For a variety of reasons, ground contamination measurements have variability at a range of spatial scales. Results will be reviewed and discussed. Model simulations, including inverse modelling, have shown that the standard source term as defined in the ATMES study (1990) needs to be updated. Sensitive measurements of airborne activities still reveal the presence of low levels of airborne radiocaesium over the northern hemisphere which stems from resuspension. Over time scales of months and years, the distribution of radionuclides in the Earth system is constantly changing, for example relocated within plants, between plants and soil, in the soil, and into water bodies. Motivated by the permanent risk of transboundary impacts from potential major nuclear accidents, the multidisciplinary project flexRISK (see http://flexRISK.boku.ac.at) has been carried out from 2009 to 2012 in Austria to quantify such risks and hazards. An overview of methods and results of flexRISK is given as a second part of the presentation. For each of the 228 NPPs, severe accidents were identified together with relevant inventories, release fractions, and release frequencies. Then, Europe-wide dispersion and dose calculations were performed for 2788 cases, using the Lagrangian particle model FLEXPART. Maps of single-case results as well as various aggregated risk parameters were produced. It was found that substantial consequences (intervention measures) are possible for distances up to 500-1000 km, and occur more frequently for a distance range up to 100-300 km, which is in

Evidence of underdiagnosis and markers of high blood pressure risk in children aged 6 to 13 years

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jeanne Teixeira Bessa Fuly

2014-01-01

Conclusions: Overweight and family history constitute the main risk markers of high BP in children. The low frequency of BP measurement in children observed in this municipality contributes to the underdiagnosis of the disease, with irreversible consequences for these individuals.

Consequence analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Woodard, K.

1985-01-01

The objectives of this paper are to: Provide a realistic assessment of consequences; Account for plant and site-specific characteristics; Adjust accident release characteristics to account for results of plant-containment analysis; Produce conditional risk curves for each of five health effects; and Estimate uncertainties

Brachytherapy boost and cancer-specific mortality in favorable high-risk versus other high-risk prostate cancer

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vinayak Muralidhar

2016-02-01

Full Text Available Purpose : Recent retrospective data suggest that brachytherapy (BT boost may confer a cancer-specific survival benefit in radiation-managed high-risk prostate cancer. We sought to determine whether this survival benefit would extend to the recently defined favorable high-risk subgroup of prostate cancer patients (T1c, Gleason 4 + 4 = 8, PSA 20 ng/ml. Material and methods: We identified 45,078 patients in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database with cT1c-T3aN0M0 intermediate- to high-risk prostate cancer diagnosed 2004-2011 treated with external beam radiation therapy (EBRT only or EBRT plus BT. We used multivariable competing risks regression to determine differences in the rate of prostate cancer-specific mortality (PCSM after EBRT + BT or EBRT alone in patients with intermediate-risk, favorable high-risk, or other high-risk disease after adjusting for demographic and clinical factors. Results : EBRT + BT was not associated with an improvement in 5-year PCSM compared to EBRT alone among patients with favorable high-risk disease (1.6% vs. 1.8%; adjusted hazard ratio [AHR]: 0.56; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.21-1.52, p = 0.258, and intermediate-risk disease (0.8% vs. 1.0%, AHR: 0.83, 95% CI: 0.59-1.16, p = 0.270. Others with high-risk disease had significantly lower 5-year PCSM when treated with EBRT + BT compared with EBRT alone (3.9% vs. 5.3%; AHR: 0.73; 95% CI: 0.55-0.95; p = 0.022. Conclusions : Brachytherapy boost is associated with a decreased rate of PCSM in some men with high-risk prostate cancer but not among patients with favorable high-risk disease. Our results suggest that the recently-defined “favorable high-risk” category may be used to personalize therapy for men with high-risk disease.

The impact of high-risk drivers and benefits of limiting their driving degree of freedom.

Science.gov (United States)

Habtemichael, Filmon G; de Picado-Santos, Luis

2013-11-01

The perception of drivers regarding risk-taking behaviour is widely varied. High-risk drivers are the segment of drivers who are disproportionately represented in the majority of crashes. This study examines the typologies of drivers in risk-taking behaviour, the common high-risk driving errors (speeding, close following, abrupt lane-changing and impaired driving), their safety consequences and the technological (ITS) devices for their detection and correction. Limiting the driving degree of freedom of high-risk drivers is proposed and its benefits on safety as well as traffic operations are quantified using VISSIM microscopic traffic simulation at various proportions of high-risk drivers; namely, 4%, 8% and 12%. Assessment of the safety benefits was carried out by using the technique of simulated vehicle conflicts which was validated against historic crashes, and reduction in travel time was used to quantify the operational benefits. The findings imply that limiting the freedom of high-risk drivers resulted in a reduction of crashes by 12%, 21% and 27% in congested traffic conditions; 9%, 13% and 18% in lightly congested traffic conditions as well as 9%, 10% and 17% in non-congested traffic conditions for high-risk drivers in proportions of 4%, 8% and 12% respectively. Moreover, the surrogate safety measures indicated that there was a reduction in crash severity levels. The operational benefits amounted to savings of nearly 1% in travel time for all the proportions of high-risk drivers considered. The study concluded that limiting the freedom of high-risk drivers has safety and operational benefits; though there could be social, legal and institutional concerns for its practical implementation. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Epidemiological and economic consequences of purchasing livestock infected with Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kirkeby, Carsten Thure; Græsbøll, Kaare; Nielsen, Søren Saxmose

2017-01-01

Paratuberculosis (PTB) is a chronic disease which may lead to reduced milk yield, lower animal welfare and death in cattle. The causative agent is Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP). The economic consequences are particularly important incentives in the control and eradication...... of the infection. One strategy to control PTB in a herd is to purchase animals from farms with a low risk of MAP infection. We wanted to investigate the epidemiological and economic consequences of buying livestock from different supplier farms of low, medium or high risk, as well as farms with unknown status. We...

A methodology for overall consequence modeling in chemical industry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arunraj, N.S.; Maiti, J.

2009-01-01

Risk assessment in chemical process industry is a very important issue for safeguarding human and the ecosystem from damages caused to them. Consequence assessment is an integral part of risk assessment. However, the commonly used consequence estimation methods involve time-consuming complex mathematical models and simple assimilation of losses without considering all the consequence factors. This lead to the deterioration of quality of estimated risk value. So, the consequence modeling has to be performed in detail considering all major losses with optimal time to improve the decisive value of risk. The losses can be broadly categorized into production loss, assets loss, human health and safety loss, and environment loss. In this paper, a conceptual framework is developed to assess the overall consequence considering all the important components of major losses. Secondly, a methodology is developed for the calculation of all the major losses, which are normalized to yield the overall consequence. Finally, as an illustration, the proposed methodology is applied to a case study plant involving benzene extraction. The case study result using the proposed consequence assessment scheme is compared with that from the existing methodologies.

Accidents, 'black swans' and risks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Luxat, J.C.

2013-01-01

Major accidents and natural disasters with severe consequences have occurred in all sectors of industrial activity with relatively high frequency. The severe consequences of concern involve either significant loss of life or major economic loss, or both loss of life and economic loss. Such events have the last two years been referred to as 'black swan' events following publication of Taleb's bestselling book. These events demonstrate limits to PRA application that arise from the underlying high uncertainty associated with the estimation of frequency of occurrence of such events. An approach is proposed in this paper that, consistent with the concept of defense in depth employed by the nuclear industry, augments probabilistic risk assessment with a methodology based upon 'threat - risk assessment'. This approach shifts these very low frequency high consequence 'black swan' events out of the probabilistic risk assessment domain into a deterministic emergency response assessment domain. (author)

Treatment recommendations in patients diagnosed with high-risk cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Veness, M.J.

2005-01-01

Non-melanoma cutaneous cancers occur at an epidemic rate in Australia. With an ageing population, more Australians will develop these cancers and at an increasing rate. In the majority of cases local treatment is highly curative. However, a subset of the population will be diagnosed with a high-risk cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma. These can be defined as patients at risk of having subclinical metastases to regional lymph nodes based on unfavourable primary lesion features (including inadequately excised and recurrent lesions), patients with metastatic squamous cell carcinoma to regional lymph nodes, and squamous cell carcinoma in immunosuppressed patients. The mortality and morbidity associated with high-risk cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma is usually as a consequence of uncontrolled metastatic nodal disease and, to a lesser extent, distant metastases. Radiotherapy has an essential role in treating these patients and in many cases the addition of adjuvant radiotherapy may be life saving. It is therefore important that all clinicians treating skin cancers have an understanding and awareness of the optimal approach to these patients. The aim of this article is to present treatment recommendations based on an overview of the current published literature. Copyright (2005) Blackwell Science Pty Ltd

Risk-based input-output analysis of influenza epidemic consequences on interdependent workforce sectors.

Science.gov (United States)

Santos, Joost R; May, Larissa; Haimar, Amine El

2013-09-01

Outbreaks of contagious diseases underscore the ever-looming threat of new epidemics. Compared to other disasters that inflict physical damage to infrastructure systems, epidemics can have more devastating and prolonged impacts on the population. This article investigates the interdependent economic and productivity risks resulting from epidemic-induced workforce absenteeism. In particular, we develop a dynamic input-output model capable of generating sector-disaggregated economic losses based on different magnitudes of workforce disruptions. An ex post analysis of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in the national capital region (NCR) reveals the distribution of consequences across different economic sectors. Consequences are categorized into two metrics: (i) economic loss, which measures the magnitude of monetary losses incurred in each sector, and (ii) inoperability, which measures the normalized monetary losses incurred in each sector relative to the total economic output of that sector. For a simulated mild pandemic scenario in NCR, two distinct rankings are generated using the economic loss and inoperability metrics. Results indicate that the majority of the critical sectors ranked according to the economic loss metric comprise of sectors that contribute the most to the NCR's gross domestic product (e.g., federal government enterprises). In contrast, the majority of the critical sectors generated by the inoperability metric include sectors that are involved with epidemic management (e.g., hospitals). Hence, prioritizing sectors for recovery necessitates consideration of the balance between economic loss, inoperability, and other objectives. Although applied specifically to the NCR, the proposed methodology can be customized for other regions. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

Risks of accidents and their consequences

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gauvenet, A.

1977-01-01

The idea of risk calls out both the probability of occurrence of a damageable event and the damage intensity. Probability calculus was originated in the 17th century; PASCAL, its initiator, immediately considered its application to everyday life. Presently two trends are to be observed: the former will apply probability calculus, and the game theory that follows, to decision-making in the technical, economical or management fields; the latter remains subjective, close to ancestral fears, hardly pervaded with the principles of risk rationalization. A number of original probabilitic studies have been devoted to the nuclear field showing that nuclear risks just as the collective risks experienced by man are lower than individual risks yet little considered by up-to-date mass media. It is desirable that society should be clearly aware of these problems. Such a long-term problem goes through youth education and public information [fr

Not all risks are equal: the risk taking inventory for high-risk sports.

Science.gov (United States)

Woodman, Tim; Barlow, Matt; Bandura, Comille; Hill, Miles; Kupciw, Dominika; Macgregor, Alexandra

2013-10-01

Although high-risk sport participants are typically considered a homogenous risk-taking population, attitudes to risk within the high-risk domain can vary considerably. As no validated measure allows researchers to assess risk taking within this domain, we validated the Risk Taking Inventory (RTI) for high-risk sport across four studies. The RTI comprises seven items across two factors: deliberate risk taking and precautionary behaviors. In Study 1 (n = 341), the inventory was refined and tested via a confirmatory factor analysis used in an exploratory fashion. The subsequent three studies confirmed the RTI's good model-data fit via three further separate confirmatory factor analyses. In Study 2 (n = 518) and in Study 3 (n = 290), concurrent validity was also confirmed via associations with other related traits (sensation seeking, behavioral activation, behavioral inhibition, impulsivity, self-esteem, extraversion, and conscientiousness). In Study 4 (n = 365), predictive validity was confirmed via associations with mean accidents and mean close calls in the high-risk domain. Finally, in Study 4, the self-report version of the inventory was significantly associated with an informant version of the inventory. The measure will allow researchers and practitioners to investigate risk taking as a variable that is conceptually distinct from participation in a high-risk sport.

Toward a risk assessment of the spent fuel and high-level nuclear waste disposal system. Risk assessment requirements, literature review, methods evaluation: an interim report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hamilton, L.D.; Hill, D.; Rowe, M.D.; Stern, E.

1986-04-01

This report provides background information for a risk assessment of the disposal system for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste (HLW). It contains a literature review, a survey of the statutory requirements for risk assessment, and a preliminary evaluation of methods. The literature review outlines the state of knowledge of risk assessment and accident consequence analysis in the nuclear fuel cycle and its applicability to spent fuel and HLW disposal. The survey of statutory requirements determines the extent to which risk assessment may be needed in development of the waste-disposal system. The evaluation of methods reviews and evaluates merits and applicabilities of alternative methods for assessing risks and relates them to the problems of spent fuel and HLW disposal. 99 refs.

Toward a risk assessment of the spent fuel and high-level nuclear waste disposal system. Risk assessment requirements, literature review, methods evaluation: an interim report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hamilton, L.D.; Hill, D.; Rowe, M.D.; Stern, E.

1986-04-01

This report provides background information for a risk assessment of the disposal system for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste (HLW). It contains a literature review, a survey of the statutory requirements for risk assessment, and a preliminary evaluation of methods. The literature review outlines the state of knowledge of risk assessment and accident consequence analysis in the nuclear fuel cycle and its applicability to spent fuel and HLW disposal. The survey of statutory requirements determines the extent to which risk assessment may be needed in development of the waste-disposal system. The evaluation of methods reviews and evaluates merits and applicabilities of alternative methods for assessing risks and relates them to the problems of spent fuel and HLW disposal. 99 refs

Nuclear installations abroad the accident risks and their potential consequences

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Turvey, F J [Radiological Protection Inst. of Ireland (Ireland)

1996-10-01

This paper endeavors to assess the threat to Ireland from severe accidents at civil nuclear installations. Among the various types of nuclear installations worldwide, reactors and reprocessing plants are considered to be the most threatening and so the paper focuses on these. The threat is assumed to be a function of the risk of severe accidents at the above types of installations and the probability of unfavourable weather conditions carrying the radioactive releases to Ireland. Although nuclear installations designed in eastern Europe and Asia are less safe than others, the greatest threat to Ireland arises from nearby installations in the UK. The difficulty of measuring the probabilities and consequences of severe nuclear accidents at nuclear installations in general is explained. In the case of the UK installations, this difficulty is overcome to some degree by using values of `tolerable` risk adopted by the national nuclear regulator to define the radiotoxic releases from nuclear accidents. These are used as input to atmospheric dispersion models in which unfavourable weather conditions for Ireland are assumed and radiation doses are calculated to members of the Irish public. No countermeasures, such as sheltering, are assumed. In the worst cast scenario no deaths would be expected in Ireland in the immediate aftermath of the accident however, an increase in cancers over a period of 25 years or so would be expected assuming present-day models for the effect of low level radiation are valid.

Nuclear installations abroad the accident risks and their potential consequences

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Turvey, F.J.

1996-01-01

This paper endeavors to assess the threat to Ireland from severe accidents at civil nuclear installations. Among the various types of nuclear installations worldwide, reactors and reprocessing plants are considered to be the most threatening and so the paper focuses on these. The threat is assumed to be a function of the risk of severe accidents at the above types of installations and the probability of unfavourable weather conditions carrying the radioactive releases to Ireland. Although nuclear installations designed in eastern Europe and Asia are less safe than others, the greatest threat to Ireland arises from nearby installations in the UK. The difficulty of measuring the probabilities and consequences of severe nuclear accidents at nuclear installations in general is explained. In the case of the UK installations, this difficulty is overcome to some degree by using values of 'tolerable' risk adopted by the national nuclear regulator to define the radiotoxic releases from nuclear accidents. These are used as input to atmospheric dispersion models in which unfavourable weather conditions for Ireland are assumed and radiation doses are calculated to members of the Irish public. No countermeasures, such as sheltering, are assumed. In the worst cast scenario no deaths would be expected in Ireland in the immediate aftermath of the accident however, an increase in cancers over a period of 25 years or so would be expected assuming present-day models for the effect of low level radiation are valid

Parental Influence on Drinking Behaviors at the Transition to College: The Mediating Role of Perceived Friends' Approval of High-Risk Drinking.

Science.gov (United States)

Rulison, Kelly L; Wahesh, Edward; Wyrick, David L; DeJong, William

2016-07-01

This study tested whether perceived parental approval of high-risk drinking is directly linked to alcohol-related outcomes or whether the link between perceived parental approval and these outcomes is mediated by perceived friends' approval of high-risk drinking. In fall 2009, 1,797 incoming first-year college students (49.7% female) from 142 U.S. colleges and universities completed a web-based survey before participating in an online substance use prevention program. The analytic sample included only 18- to 20-year-old freshmen students who had consumed alcohol in the past year. Students answered questions about perceived parental approval and perceived friends' approval of high-risk drinking. They also answered questions about their alcohol use (heavy episodic drinking, risky drinking behaviors), use of self-protective strategies (to prevent drinking and driving and to moderate alcohol use), and negative alcohol-related consequences (health, academic and work, social consequences, and drinking and driving). Mediation analyses controlling for the clustering of students within schools indicated that perceived parental approval was directly associated with more easily observable outcomes (e.g., academic- and work-related consequences, drinking and driving). Perceived friends' approval significantly mediated the link between perceived parental approval and outcomes that are less easily observed (e.g., alcohol use, health consequences). During the transition to college, parents may influence students' behaviors both directly (through communication) as well as indirectly (by shaping their values and whom students select as friends). Alcohol use prevention programs for students about to start college should address both parental and friend influences on alcohol use.

Sexual dysfunction among reproductive-aged Chinese married women in Hong Kong: prevalence, risk factors, and associated consequences.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Huiping; Fan, Susan; Yip, Paul S F

2015-03-01

Although female sexual dysfunction (FSD) is a serious public health issue endangering women's well-being, systematic research on FSD among reproductive-aged Chinese women in Hong Kong is quite scarce. This study aims to estimate the prevalence, risk factors, and associated consequences of FSD among reproductive-aged Chinese married women in Hong Kong. This study was based on a community-based survey across Hong Kong conducted by the Family Planning Association of Hong Kong in 2012 with 1,518 married women aged 21-49 years. The Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition classification was adopted to assess FSD. It was found that 25.6% of the married women surveyed reported at least one form of sexual dysfunction and that the prevalence of six domains of sexual dysfunction was as follows: 10.6% for lack of interest in sex, 10.5% for not finding sex pleasurable, 9.3% for lubrication difficulties, 8.8% for inability to achieve orgasm, 8.8% for orgasm delay, and 8.4% for physical pain during sex. Multivariate analyses showed that low education and income, average or poor health, lower frequency of sex, abortion history, traditional attitudes toward sex, and marital dissatisfaction are all significant risk factors for different components of FSD. It was also been found that four domains of FSD (the exceptions being orgasm delay and physical pain during sex) have severe consequences for married women's life satisfaction and sexual satisfaction. The prevalence of FSD is lower among reproductive-aged Chinese married women in Hong Kong than among women in the United States and some Asian countries. The risk factors associated with FSD include sociodemographic factors, physical health, sexual experience and attitudes, and relationship factors. FSD has significant consequences for married women's life quality. These findings have great implications for FSD prevention and relevant service delivery. © 2014 International Society for Sexual

Radiological consequences of the Chernobyl reactor accident

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hill, P.; Hille, R.

2003-01-01

The reactor accident at unit 4 of the Chernobyl nuclear power plant in Ukraine has deeply affected the living conditions of millions of people. Especially the health consequences have been of public concern up to the present and also been the subject of sometimes absurd claims. The current knowledge on the radiological consequences of the accident is reviewed. Though an increased hazard for some risk groups with high radiation exposure, e.g., liquidators, still cannot be totally excluded for the future, the majority of the population shows no statistically significant indication of radiation-induced illnesses. The contribution of the Research Center Juelich to the assessment of the post-accidental situation and psychological relief of the population is reported. The population groups still requiring special attention include, in particular, children growing up in highly contaminated regions and the liquidators of the years 1986 and 1987 deployed immediately after the accident. (author)

No survival difference after successful {sup 131}I ablation between patients with initially low-risk and high-risk differentiated thyroid cancer

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Verburg, Frederik Anton [University of Wuerzburg, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Wuerzburg (Germany); University Medical Center Utrecht, Department of Radiology and Nuclear Medicine, Utrecht (Netherlands); Stokkel, Marcel P.M.; Verkooijen, Robbert B.T. [Leiden University Medical Center, Department of Radiology, Division of Nuclear Medicine, Leiden (Netherlands); Dueren, Christian; Reiners, Christoph [University of Wuerzburg, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Wuerzburg (Germany); Maeder, Uwe [University of Wuerzburg, Comprehensive Cancer Center, Wuerzburg (Germany); Isselt, Johannes W. van [University Medical Center Utrecht, Department of Radiology and Nuclear Medicine, Utrecht (Netherlands); Marlowe, Robert J. [Spencer-Fontayne Corporation, Jersey City, NJ (United States); Smit, Johannes W. [Leiden University Medical Center, Department of Endocrinology, Leiden (Netherlands); Luster, Markus [University of Ulm, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Ulm (Germany)

2010-02-15

To compare disease-specific survival and recurrence-free survival (RFS) after successful {sup 131}I ablation in patients with differentiated thyroid carcinoma (DTC) between those defined before ablation as low-risk and those defined as high-risk according to the European Thyroid Association 2006 consensus statement. Retrospective data from three university hospitals were pooled. Of 2009 consecutive patients receiving ablation, 509 were identified as successfully ablated based on both undetectable stimulated serum thyroglobulin in the absence of antithyroglobulin antibodies and a negative diagnostic whole-body scan in a follow-up examination conducted 8.1{+-}4.6 months after ablation. Of these 509 patients, 169 were defined as high-risk. After a mean follow-up of 81{+-}64 months (range 4-306 months), only three patients had died of DTC, rendering assessment of disease-specific survival differences impossible. Of the 509 patients, 12 (2.4%) developed a recurrence a mean 35 months (range 12-59 months) after ablation. RFS for the duration of follow-up was 96.6% according to the Kaplan-Meier method. RFS did not differ between high-risk and low-risk patients (p=0.68). RFS differed slightly but significantly between those with papillary and those with follicular thyroid carcinoma (p=0.03) and between those aged {<=}45 years those aged >45 years at diagnosis (p=0.018). After (near) total thyroidectomy and successful {sup 131}I ablation, RFS does not differ between patients classified as high-risk and those classified as low-risk based on TNM stage at diagnosis. Consequently, the follow-up protocol should be determined on the basis of the result of initial treatment rather than on the initial tumour classification. (orig.)

High Center Volume Does Not Mitigate Risk Associated with Using High Donor Risk Organs in Liver Transplantation.

Science.gov (United States)

Beal, Eliza W; Black, Sylvester M; Mumtaz, Khalid; Hayes, Don; El-Hinnawi, Ashraf; Washburn, Kenneth; Tumin, Dmitry

2017-09-01

High-risk donor allografts increase access to liver transplant, but potentially reduce patient and graft survival. It is unclear whether the risk associated with using marginal donor livers is mitigated by increasing center experience. The United Network for Organ Sharing registry was queried for adult first-time liver transplant recipients between 2/2002 and 12/2015. High donor risk was defined as donor risk index >1.9, and 1-year patient and graft survival were compared according to donor risk index in small and large centers. Multivariable Cox regression estimated the hazard ratio (HR) associated with using high-risk donor organs, according to a continuous measure of annual center volume. The analysis included 51,770 patients. In 67 small and 67 large centers, high donor risk index predicted increased mortality (p = 0.001). In multivariable analysis, high-donor risk index allografts predicted greater mortality hazard at centers performing 20 liver transplants per year (HR 1.35; 95% CI 1.22, 1.49; p donor risk index and center volume was not statistically significant (p = 0.747), confirming that the risk associated with using marginal donor livers was comparable between smaller and larger centers. Results were consistent when examining graft loss. At both small and large centers, high-risk donor allografts were associated with reduced patient and graft survival after liver transplant. Specific strategies to mitigate the risk of liver transplant involving high-risk donors are needed, in addition to accumulation of center expertise.

Accidents, 'Black Swans' and risk

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Luxat, J.C., E-mail: luxatj@mcmaster.ca [McMaster Univ., Dept. of Engineering Physics, Hamilton, Ontario (Canada)

2013-07-01

Major accidents and natural disasters with severe consequences have occurred in all sectors of industrial activity with relatively high frequency. The severe consequences of concern involve either significant loss of life or major economic loss, or both loss of life and economic loss. Such events have in the last two years often been referred to as 'Black Swan' events following publication of a best-selling book. The events demonstrate limits to the application of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) that arise from the underlying unquantifiable uncertainty associated with the estimation of the frequency of occurrence of such events. An approach is proposed in this paper that, consistent with the concept of defense in depth employed by the nuclear industry, augments probabilistic risk assessment with a methodology based upon 'threat -risk assessment'. This approach shifts these very low frequency, high uncertainty, and high consequence 'Black Swan' events out of the probabilistic risk assessment domain and into a deterministic emergency response assessment domain. (author)

Accidents, 'Black Swans' and risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Luxat, J.C.

2013-01-01

Major accidents and natural disasters with severe consequences have occurred in all sectors of industrial activity with relatively high frequency. The severe consequences of concern involve either significant loss of life or major economic loss, or both loss of life and economic loss. Such events have in the last two years often been referred to as 'Black Swan' events following publication of a best-selling book. The events demonstrate limits to the application of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) that arise from the underlying unquantifiable uncertainty associated with the estimation of the frequency of occurrence of such events. An approach is proposed in this paper that, consistent with the concept of defense in depth employed by the nuclear industry, augments probabilistic risk assessment with a methodology based upon 'threat -risk assessment'. This approach shifts these very low frequency, high uncertainty, and high consequence 'Black Swan' events out of the probabilistic risk assessment domain and into a deterministic emergency response assessment domain. (author)

Global situational awareness and early warning of high-consequence climate change.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Backus, George A.; Carr, Martin J.; Boslough, Mark Bruce Elrick

2009-08-01

Global monitoring systems that have high spatial and temporal resolution, with long observational baselines, are needed to provide situational awareness of the Earth's climate system. Continuous monitoring is required for early warning of high-consequence climate change and to help anticipate and minimize the threat. Global climate has changed abruptly in the past and will almost certainly do so again, even in the absence of anthropogenic interference. It is possible that the Earth's climate could change dramatically and suddenly within a few years. An unexpected loss of climate stability would be equivalent to the failure of an engineered system on a grand scale, and would affect billions of people by causing agricultural, economic, and environmental collapses that would cascade throughout the world. The probability of such an abrupt change happening in the near future may be small, but it is nonzero. Because the consequences would be catastrophic, we argue that the problem should be treated with science-informed engineering conservatism, which focuses on various ways a system can fail and emphasizes inspection and early detection. Such an approach will require high-fidelity continuous global monitoring, informed by scientific modeling.

Awareness of Consequence of High School Students on Loss of Bio-Diversity

Science.gov (United States)

Kasot, Nazim; Özbas, Serap

2015-01-01

The aim of this study is to assess the egoistic, altruistic and biospheric awareness of the consequence of high school students regarding the loss of bio-diversity, then comparing the results on the basis of some independent variables (gender, class and family income). The research data were collected from 884 ninth and tenth grade high school…

Sexting: definition, risk factors and consequences

OpenAIRE

Mercado Contreras, Cinthia Tomasa; Pedraza Cabrera, Francisco Javier; Martínez Martínez, Kalina Isela

2016-01-01

[EN] The advance of the technology in communications has led to social networking sites fulfill an important role in society. Among the most used and known is Facebook, that social network allows to make public certain information and provides the opportunity to hold private conversations. This new trend of talks, and the natural desire to explore sexuality has led young people interested at phenomenon known as sexting. This phenomenon, from some of the negative consequences be...

Medical radiological consequences of the Chernobyl catastrophe in Russia. Estimation of radiation risks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ivanov, V.; Tsyb, A.; Ivanov, S.; Pokrovsky, V.

2004-01-01

The Chernobyl accident, one of the worst radiation-related disasters ever, occurred about 18 year ago. A lot has been done over the past years to mitigate the consequences of this accident, especially in the worst affected territories of Belarus, Russia and Ukraine. The efforts to study health effects of the accident, however, need to be continued for many years to come, being an integral part of developing a general strategy for dealing with long-term effects. The question now arises: To what extent health consequences could be evaluated in 1986, given the existing scientific base of radiation epidemiology? The latest 20-30 years have seen a rapid development of radiation epidemiology, which was brought about, first of all, by the need to analyze long-term radiation effects of the 1945 atomic bombing in Hiroshima and Nagasaki. It may now be considered as proved that high and medium radiation doses (above 0.3 Sv) lead to an increase in cancer incidence rates. Based on the Japanese data, the ICRP proposed mathematical models to be used for predicting long-term effects of radiation exposure. This brings up a question: Are radiation risks derived for Hiroshima and Nagasaki applicable to low doses (0.2 Sv)? An answer is critically important, as the overwhelming majority of emergency workers and the population exposed as a result of the Chernobyl accident received doses within this range. Actually, understanding of these issues is crucial for dealing with long-term radiation effects of the Chernobyl accident. Deriving radiation risk factors for the Japanese cohort with medium and high doses was based on large-scale epidemiological studies of 86.5 thousand people during a prolonged period. As of now, no other approaches exist to estimating long-term radiation effects. Following the Chernobyl accident the All-Union Distributed Registry of persons exposed to radiation was established as soon as in the summer 1986. The Research Institute of Medical Radiology (Medical

Race, gender, and risk perceptions of the legal consequences of drinking and driving.

Science.gov (United States)

Sloan, Frank A; Chepke, Lindsey M; Davis, Dontrell V

2013-06-01

This study investigated whether subjective beliefs about the consequences of driving while intoxicated (DWI) differ by race/gender. Beliefs affect driving behaviors and views of police/judicial fairness. The researchers compared risk perceptions of DWI using a survey of drinkers in eight cities in four states with actual arrest and conviction rates and fines from court data in the same cities. With state arrest data as a benchmark, Black males were overly pessimistic about being stopped, whether or not actual drinking occurred, and attributed higher jail penalties to DWI conviction. That Black males overestimated jail sentences incurred by the general population suggests that they did not attribute higher jail penalties to racial bias. Arrest data did not reveal disparities in judicial outcomes following DWI arrest. Blacks' subjective beliefs about DWI consequences may reflect social experiences, which are not jurisdiction- or crime-specific; this is a challenge to policymakers aiming to deter DWI by changing statutes and enforcement. If perception of bias exists despite no actual bias, a change in enforcement policy would not be effective, but a public relations campaign would be helpful in realigning beliefs. Copyright © 2013 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk-taking and risky decision-making in Internet gaming disorder: Implications regarding online gaming in the setting of negative consequences.

Science.gov (United States)

Dong, Guangheng; Potenza, Marc N

2016-02-01

Individuals with Internet gaming disorder (IGD) continue gaming despite adverse consequences. However, the precise mechanism underlying this behavior remains unknown. In this study, data from 20 IGD subjects and 16 otherwise comparable healthy control subjects (HCs) were recorded and compared when they were undergoing risk-taking and risky decision-making during functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). During risk-taking and as compared to HCs, IGD subjects selected more risk-disadvantageous trials and demonstrated less activation of the anterior cingulate, posterior cingulate and middle temporal gyrus. During risky decision-making and as compared to HCs, IGD subjects showed shorter response times and less activations of the inferior frontal and superior temporal gyri. Taken together, data suggest that IGD subjects show impaired executive control in selecting risk-disadvantageous choices, and they make risky decisions more hastily and with less recruitment of regions implicated in impulse control. These results suggest a possible neurobiological underpinning for why IGD subjects may exhibit poor control over their game-seeking behaviors even when encountering negative consequences and provide possible therapeutic targets for interventions in this population. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Descriptive epidemiology and health consequences of childhood obesity.

Science.gov (United States)

Reilly, John J

2005-09-01

Obesity is now the most common disorder of childhood in the developed world, and its prevalence is still increasing. A large body of high-quality and consistent evidence shows that it is best defined using the body mass index (BMI) percentile relative to national BMI reference data. This definition diagnoses excessive fatness adequately, and denotes increased risk of adverse health outcomes. Future research may provide improved obesity definitions for epidemiological use, so that the obesity epidemic can be monitored more effectively. Paediatric obesity causes ill health in both childhood and adulthood, though further research is required on the economic consequences, on some of the co-morbidities in childhood (notably psychological morbidity), and in adulthood where the amount of empirical evidence on long-term effects is limited. The combination of high prevalence with adverse consequences has created a public health crisis.

HIGH RISK ZONES ON FLOODS AND LANDSLIDES DISASTERS IN RWANDA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nsengiyumva J.ean Baptiste

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Disaster risk management as an issue at stake worldwide shifts its emphases from post disaster to pre-disaster phases. Management activities required in pre-disaster phases, such as risk assessment, hazard identification, preparedness or preventive and mitigation measures needs detailed information about hazard characteristics, social, economic, structural vulnerability and capacity. That information is not usually available in many different countries, as it is the case in Rwanda. Based on the international experiences and practices, knowledge of disaster prone areas can be assumed as an alternative for detailed information acquisition, thus contributing to effective disaster risk management. Identification of disaster higher risk zones on floods and landslides, can lead to better understanding of disaster risk and putting in place measures for risk reduction. Consequently, as Rwanda is prone to natural hazards with lack of adequate information that is essential for effective disaster risk management, due to limited scientific researches; this study aims to address that gap. The results revealed that some areas of the North-Western parts of Rwanda are highly prone to floods and landslides, namely Burera, Musanze, Rulindo, Nyabihu, Ngororero and Rubavu Districts. This is aggravated by some triggering factors such as steep slopes, soil types, heavy rains, landuse Practices and others. Intensity and frequency of disaster events vary from district to district and this geographical dispersal confirms the non-spatial clustering (as confirmed by Moran’s I analysis of risks due to uneven level of Disaster vulnerabilities, coping capacities and available hazards whereby lack of normal distribution of hazards all over all Districts.

Employment consequences of depressive symptoms and work demands individually and combined.

Science.gov (United States)

Thielen, Karsten; Nygaard, Else; Andersen, Ingelise; Diderichsen, Finn

2014-02-01

Denmark, like other Western countries, is recently burdened by increasingly high social spending on employment consequences caused by ill mental health. This might be the result of high work demands affecting persons with ill mental health. Therefore, this study assesses to what extent depressive symptoms and high work demands, individually and combined, have an effect on employment consequences. We conducted a population-based 7-year longitudinal follow-up study with baseline information from the year 2000 on socio-demographics, lifestyle, depressive symptoms and work demands. In total, 5785 employed persons, aged 40 and 50 years, were included. Information about employment status, sick leave and work disability was obtained from registers. Logistic regression models were used to measure separate and combined effects of depressive symptoms and work demands on job change, unemployment and sick leave during 2001-02 and work disability during 2003-07. After adjustment for covariates, high physical work demands and depressive symptoms had a graded effect on subsequent unemployment, sick leave and permanent work disability. Persons with both depressive symptoms and high physical demands had the highest risks, especially for sick leave, but the combined effect did not exceed the product of single effects. Persons who perceived high amount of work changed job significantly more frequently. Persons with depressive symptoms might have an increased risk of negative employment consequences irrespective of the kind and amount of work demands. This might be an effect on the level of work ability in general as well as partly the result of health selection and co-morbidity.

[Climate changes, floods, and health consequences].

Science.gov (United States)

Michelozzi, Paola; de' Donato, Francesca

2014-02-01

In the European Region, floods are the most common natural disaster, causing extensive damage and disruption. In Italy, it has been estimated that over 68% of municipalities are at high hydrogeological risk and with the recent intense rainfall events local populations have been facing severe disruptions. The health consequences of floods are wide ranging and are dependent upon the vulnerability of the environment and the local population. Health effects can be a direct or indirect consequence of flooding. The immediate health impacts of floods include drowning, heart attacks, injuries and hypothermia. The indirect effects include, injuries and infections, water-borne infectious disease, mental health problems, respiratory disease and allergies in both the medium and long term after a flood. Future efforts should be addressed to integrate health preparedness and prevention measures into emergency flood plans and hydrological warning systems.

Incorporating risk communication into highly pathogenic avian influenza preparedness and response efforts.

Science.gov (United States)

Voss, Shauna J; Malladi, Sasidhar; Sampedro, Fernando; Snider, Tim; Goldsmith, Timothy; Hueston, William D; Lauer, Dale C; Halvorson, David A

2012-12-01

A highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreak in the United States will initiate a federal emergency response effort that will consist of disease control and eradication efforts, including quarantine and movement control measures. These movement control measures will not only apply to live animals but also to animal products. However, with current egg industry "just-in-time" production practices, limited storage is available to hold eggs. As a result, stop movement orders can have significant unintended negative consequences, including severe disruptions to the food supply chain. Because stakeholders' perceptions of risk vary, waiting to initiate communication efforts until an HPAI event occurs can hinder disease control efforts, including the willingness of producers to comply with the response, and also can affect consumers' demand for the product. A public-private-academic partnership was formed to assess actual risks involved in the movement of egg industry products during an HPAI event through product specific, proactive risk assessments. The risk analysis process engaged a broad representation of stakeholders and promoted effective risk management and communication strategies before an HPAI outbreak event. This multidisciplinary team used the risk assessments in the development of the United States Department of Agriculture, Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Secure Egg Supply Plan, a comprehensive response plan that strives to maintain continuity of business. The collaborative approach that was used demonstrates how a proactive risk communication strategy that involves many different stakeholders can be valuable in the development of a foreign animal disease response plan and build working relationships, trust, and understanding.

Dutch monitor on stress and physical load: risk factors, consequences, and preventive action.

Science.gov (United States)

Houtman, I L; Goudswaard, A; Dhondt, S; van der Grinten, M P; Hildebrandt, V H; van der Poel, E G

1998-02-01

Due to recent changes in legislation on occupational health and safety, a national monitor on stress and physical load was developed in The Netherlands to monitor (a) risks and consequences of stress and physical load at work, (b) preventive actions in companies to reduce these risks, and (c) organisational and environmental variables that facilitate preventive actions. Information was gathered from employers, employees, and employees' representatives. The monitor was used with a nationally representative sample of companies in industry, wholesale trade, and banking and finance, 782 companies in total. The information from the employees, aggregated at the company level, was not found to be correlated with that from the employer from the same companies. Although many employers do recognise risk factors for both physical load and stress as a problem they often seem to underestimate the problem when compared with employees or their representatives. This is particularly the case for psychosocial risk factors. Also, the perception of outcome measures, especially employers who consider emotional exhaustion to be work related, were fewer than the employees' representatives of the same organisation. Preventive measures on physical load are much more popular than measures against stress. It is the responsibility of the employer to take more preventive action of all kinds. They need to recognise risk factors as problems and health outcomes to be related to work. Employees of larger companies should participate with employers to consider effective measures, and more use should be made of support at branch level. For specific preventive measures, specific predictors emerged. Except for measures to prevent work stress, information from employees did not sufficiently contribute to the initiation of preventive measures in the workplace.

A metasynthesis of risk perception in women with high risk pregnancies.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Suzanne; Ayers, Susan; Holden, Des

2014-04-01

risk perception in women with high risk pregnancies affects their decisions about perinatal care and is of interest to anyone involved in the care of pregnant women. This paper provides a metasynthesis of qualitative studies of risk perception in women with high risk pregnancies. a systematic search of eight electronic databases was conducted. Additional papers were obtained through searching references of identified articles. Six studies were identified that reported qualitative research into risk perception in relation to high risk pregnancy. A metasynthesis was developed to describe and interpret the studies. the synthesis resulted in the identification of five themes: determinants of risk perception; not seeing it the way others do; normality versus risk; if the infant is ok, I׳m ok; managing risk. this metasynthesis suggests women at high risk during pregnancy use multiple sources of information to determine their risk status. It shows women are aware of the risks posed by their pregnancies but do not perceive risk in the same way as healthcare professionals. They will take steps to ensure the health of themselves and their infants but these may not include following all medical recommendations. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Unification of favourable intermediate-, unfavourable intermediate-, and very high-risk stratification criteria for prostate cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Zumsteg, Zachary S; Zelefsky, Michael J; Woo, Kaitlin M; Spratt, Daniel E; Kollmeier, Marisa A; McBride, Sean; Pei, Xin; Sandler, Howard M; Zhang, Zhigang

2017-11-01

To improve on the existing risk-stratification systems for prostate cancer. This was a retrospective investigation including 2 248 patients undergoing dose-escalated external beam radiotherapy (EBRT) at a single institution. We separated National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) intermediate-risk prostate cancer into 'favourable' and 'unfavourable' groups based on primary Gleason pattern, percentage of positive biopsy cores (PPBC), and number of NCCN intermediate-risk factors. Similarly, NCCN high-risk prostate cancer was stratified into 'standard' and 'very high-risk' groups based on primary Gleason pattern, PPBC, number of NCCN high-risk factors, and stage T3b-T4 disease. Patients with unfavourable-intermediate-risk (UIR) prostate cancer had significantly inferior prostate-specific antigen relapse-free survival (PSA-RFS, P prostate cancer-specific mortality (PCSM, P prostate cancer. Similarly, patients with very high-risk (VHR) prostate cancer had significantly worse PSA-RFS (P prostate cancer. Moreover, patients with FIR and low-risk prostate cancer had similar outcomes, as did patients with UIR and SHR prostate cancer. Consequently, we propose the following risk-stratification system: Group 1, low risk and FIR; Group 2, UIR and SHR; and Group 3, VHR. These groups have markedly different outcomes, with 8-year distant metastasis rates of 3%, 9%, and 29% (P < 0.001) for Groups 1, 2, and 3, respectively, and 8-year PCSM of 1%, 4%, and 13% (P < 0.001) after EBRT. This modified stratification system was significantly more accurate than the three-tiered NCCN system currently in clinical use for all outcomes. Modifying the NCCN risk-stratification system to group FIR with low-risk patients and UIR with SHR patients, results in modestly improved prediction of outcomes, potentially allowing better personalisation of therapeutic recommendations. © 2017 The Authors BJU International © 2017 BJU International Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The positive bystander effect: passive bystanders increase helping in situations with high expected negative consequences for the helper.

Science.gov (United States)

Fischer, Peter; Greitemeyer, Tobias

2013-01-01

The present field study investigated the interplay between the presence of a passive bystander (not present versus present) in a simulated bike theft and expected negative consequences (low versus high) in predicting intervention behavior when no physical victim is present. It was found that an additional bystander increases individual intervention in situations where the expected negative consequences for the helper in case of intervention were high (i.e., when the bike thief looks fierce) compared to situations where the expected negative consequences for the helper were low (i.e., when the bike thief does not look fierce). In contrast, no such effect for high vs. low expected negative consequences was observed when no additional bystander observed the critical situation. The results are discussed in light of previous laboratory findings on expected negative consequences and bystander intervention.

[Detecting high risk pregnancy].

Science.gov (United States)

Doret, Muriel; Gaucherand, Pascal

2009-12-20

Antenatal care is aiming to reduce maternal land foetal mortality and morbidity. Maternal and foetal mortality can be due to different causes. Their knowledge allows identifying pregnancy (high risk pregnancy) with factors associated with an increased risk for maternal and/or foetal mortality and serious morbidity. Identification of high risk pregnancies and initiation of appropriate treatment and/or surveillance should improve maternal and/or foetal outcome. New risk factors are continuously described thanks to improvement in antenatal care and development in biology and cytopathology, increasing complexity in identifying high risk pregnancies. Level of risk can change all over the pregnancy. Ideally, it should be evaluated prior to the pregnancy and at each antenatal visit. Clinical examination is able to screen for intra-uterin growth restriction, pre-eclampsia, threatened for preterm labour; ultrasounds help in the diagnosis of foetal morphological anomalies, foetal chromosomal anomalies, placenta praevia and abnormal foetal growth; biological exams are used to screen for pre-eclampsia, gestational diabetes, trisomy 21 (for which screening method just changed), rhesus immunisation, seroconversion for toxoplasmosis or rubeola, unknown infectious disease (syphilis, hepatitis B, VIH). During pregnancy, most of the preventive strategies have to be initiated during the first trimester or even before conception. Prevention for neural-tube defects, neonatal hypocalcemia and listeriosis should be performed for all women. On the opposite, some measures are concerning only women with risk factors such as prevention for toxoplasmosis, rhesus immunization (which recently changed), tobacco complications and pre-eclampsia and intra-uterine growth factor restriction.

Causes and consequences of sleepiness among college students

OpenAIRE

Hershner, Shelley; Chervin,Ron

2014-01-01

Shelley D Hershner, Ronald D ChervinDepartment of Neurology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USAAbstract: Daytime sleepiness, sleep deprivation, and irregular sleep schedules are highly prevalent among college students, as 50% report daytime sleepiness and 70% attain insufficient sleep. The consequences of sleep deprivation and daytime sleepiness are especially problematic to college students and can result in lower grade point averages, increased risk of academic failure, compromised ...

Vibratory perception threshold in young and middle-aged patients at high risk of knee osteoarthritis compared to controls

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Thorlund, Jonas Bloch; Shakoor, Najia; Ageberg, Eva

2012-01-01

Vibratory perception threshold (VPT) is impaired in patients with knee osteoarthritis (OA). It is, however, not known if sensory deficits precede or follow as a consequence of OA. The aim of this study was to investigate VPT in 2 independent groups of patients with high risk of future OA (young a...

Generating local scale land use/cover change scenarios: case studies of high-risk mountain areas

Science.gov (United States)

Malek, Žiga; Glade, Thomas; Boerboom, Luc

2014-05-01

The relationship between land use/cover changes and consequences to human well-being is well acknowledged and has led to higher interest of both researchers and decision makers in driving forces and consequences of such changes. For example, removal of natural vegetation cover or urban expansion resulting in new elements at risk can increase hydro-meteorological risk. This is why it is necessary to study how the land use/cover could evolve in the future. Emphasis should especially be given to areas experiencing, or expecting, high rates of socio-economic change. A suitable approach to address these changes is scenario development; it offers exploring possible futures and the corresponding environmental consequences, and aids decision-making, as it enables to analyse possible options. Scenarios provide a creative methodology to depict possible futures, resulting from existing decisions, based on different assumptions of future socio-economic development. They have been used in various disciplines and on various scales, such as flood risk and soil erosion. Several studies have simulated future scenarios of land use/cover changes at a very high success rate, however usually these approaches are tailor made for specific case study areas and fit to available data. This study presents a multi-step scenario generation framework, which can be transferable to other local scale case study areas, taking into account the case study specific consequences of land use/cover changes. Through the use of experts' and decision-makers' knowledge, we aimed to develop a framework with the following characteristics: (1) it enables development of scenarios that are plausible, (2) it can overcome data inaccessibility, (3) it can address intangible and external driving forces of land use/cover change, and (4) it ensures transferability to other local scale case study areas with different land use/cover change processes and consequences. To achieve this, a set of different methods is applied

Intimate partner violence as seen in post-conflict eastern Uganda: prevalence, risk factors and mental health consequences.

Science.gov (United States)

Kinyanda, Eugene; Weiss, Helen A; Mungherera, Margaret; Onyango-Mangen, Patrick; Ngabirano, Emmanuel; Kajungu, Rehema; Kagugube, Johnson; Muhwezi, Wilson; Muron, Julius; Patel, Vikram

2016-01-29

Conflict and post-conflict communities in sub-Saharan Africa have a high under recognised problem of intimate partner violence (IPV). Part of the reason for this has been the limited data on IPV from conflict affected sub-Saharan Africa. This paper reports on the prevalence, risk factors and mental health consequences of IPV victimisation in both gender as seen in post-conflict eastern Uganda. A cross-sectional survey was carried out in two districts of eastern Uganda. The primary outcome of IPV victimisation was assessed using a modified Intimate Partner Violence assessment questionnaire of the American Congress of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists. The prevalence of any form of IPV victimisation (physical and/or sexual and/or psychological IPV) in this study was 43.7 % [95 % CI, 40.1-47.4 %], with no statistically significant difference between the two gender. The factors significantly associated with IPV victimisation were: sub-county (representing ecological factors), poverty, use of alcohol, and physical and sexual war torture experiences. The mental health problems associated with IPV victimisation were probable problem alcohol drinking, attempted suicide and probable major depressive disorder. In post-conflict eastern Uganda, in both gender, war torture was a risk factor for IPV victimisation and IPV victimisation was associated with mental health problems.

Prevalence, risk factors and consequences of cerebral small vessel diseases: data from three Asian countries.

Science.gov (United States)

Hilal, Saima; Mok, Vincent; Youn, Young Chul; Wong, Adrian; Ikram, Mohammad Kamran; Chen, Christopher Li-Hsian

2017-08-01

Cerebral small vessel disease (SVD) has been suggested to be more common in Asians compared with Caucasians. However, data from population-based studies in Asia are lacking. We report on the prevalence, risk factors and consequences of SVD from contemporary studies in three Asian countries using 3-Tesla MRI for the evaluation of SVD. Clinical, cognitive and 3-Tesla brain MRI assessments were performed among participants of three studies from Singapore, Hong Kong and Korea. SVD markers include white matter hyperintensities (WMHs) using the modified Fazekas scale, lacunes and microbleeds. Cognition was assessed using the Mini Mental Status Examination (MMSE) and Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA). Adjustments were made for age, sex and cardiovascular risk factors. A total of 1797 subjects were available for analysis (mean age: 70.1±6.3 years and 57% women). The prevalence of confluent WMH was 36.6%, lacunes, 24.6% and microbleeds, 26.9%. Presence of all three SVD markers showed a steeper increase with increasing age rising from 1.9% in the lowest to 46.2% in the highest 5-year age strata. The major risk factors for the increased severity of SVD markers were advancing age and hypertension. Moreover, increasing severity of SVD markers was independently associated with worse performance on MMSE and MoCA. Elderly Asians have a high burden of SVD which was associated with cognitive dysfunction. This suggests that SVD markers should be a potential target for treatment in clinical trials so as to delay progression of cerebrovascular disease and potentially cognitive decline. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Risk perception in women with high-risk pregnancies

OpenAIRE

Lee, S.

2014-01-01

Risk perception in women with high risk pregnancies affects the decisions they make about antenatal care and so may therefore influence the wellbeing of mother and baby. This article addresses the factors which influence women when making risk assessments and how these assessments may differ from those of healthcare professionals.\\ud \\ud Women use multiple sources of information to determine their risk status including advice from professionals, from other trusted sources, and their own intui...

Population at high-risk of indoor heatstroke: the usage of cooling appliances among urban elderlies in Japan.

Science.gov (United States)

Kondo, Masahide; Ono, Masaji; Nakazawa, Kouichi; Kayaba, Momoko; Minakuchi, Emiko; Sugimoto, Kazutoshi; Honda, Yasushi

2013-05-01

Heatstroke due to a heat wave during the summer is one of the commonly known health impacts of climate change in Japan. The elderly are particularly at high-risk of developing indoor heatstroke with poor prognosis. This study aims to describe the population among elderlies at high-risk of indoor heatstroke by focusing on the usage of cooling appliances. We conducted a web-based household survey in eight urban areas during the winter season of 2011. Households with a person aged 65 and over were selected as samples from panel members of a research firm, and the oldest member of the household was queried about his/her usage of cooling appliances. The population at high-risk of indoor heatstroke is defined as the elderly staying in a room without cooling appliances, or not using the installed cooling appliances, or turning the cooling appliances on only when the room temperature is above 28 °C. 15.4 and 19.1 % of the elderlies living in urban areas of Japan are identified as at high-risk of indoor heatstroke during activity time and sleeping time, respectively, according to the definition of high-risk of indoor heatstroke in this study. These figures are not negligible since the consequences of heatstroke are grave, but its risk can be eliminated by an appropriate usage of cooling appliances. The preventive interventions are needed to protect the elderlies at high-risk of heatstroke.

Risk Associated With The Decompression Of High Pressure High Temperature Fluids - Study On Black Oil

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Figueroa, D. C.; Fosbøl, P. L.; Thomsen, K.

2015-01-01

Fluids produced from deep underground reservoirs may result in exponential increase in temperature. It is a consequence of adiabatic fluid decompression from the inverse Joule Thomson Effect (JTE). The phenomenon requires analysis in order to avoid any operational risks. This study evaluates...... the JTE upon decompression of black oil in high pressure-high temperature reservoirs. Also the effect caused by the presence of water and brine on the black oil is studied. The final temperature is calculated from the corresponding energy balance at isenthalpic and non-isenthalpic conditions. It is found...... that the final temperature of black oil increases upon adiabatic decompression. In the case of the isenthalpic process at initial conditions of the reservoir, e.g. 150°C and 1000 bars, it is found that the final temperature can increase to 173.7°C. At non-isenthalpic conditions the final temperature increases...

In the Casino of Life: Betting on Risks and Ignoring the Consequences of Climate Change and Hazards

Science.gov (United States)

Brosnan, D. M.

2016-12-01

two related but frequently decoupled factors 1. How does the audience identify and rank risks? 2.What are the consequences of ignoring risks and facing the outcomes? Presentation explores scientists' and decision makers' betting on risks and ignoring the consequences on climate change and hazards.

Modeling the economic consequences of LWR accidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Burke, R.P.; Aldrich, D.C.; Rasmussen, N.C.

1984-01-01

Models to be used for analyses of economic risks from events which may occur during LWR plant operation are developed in this study. The models include capabilities to estimate both onsite and offsite costs of LWR events ranging from routine plant outages to severe core-melt accidents resulting in large releases of radioactive material to the environment. The models can be used by both the nuclear power industry and regulatory agencies in cost-benefit analyses for decisionmaking purposes. The newly developed economic consequence models are applied in an example to estimate the economic risks from operation of the Surry Unit 2 plant. The analyses indicate that economic risks from US LWR operation, in contrast to public health risks, are dominated by relatively high-frequency forced outage events. Even for severe (e.g., core-melt) accidents, expected offsite costs are less than expected onsite costs for the Surry site. The implications of these conclusions for nuclear power plant operation and regulation are discussed

Navigation safety and risk assessment challenges in the High North

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Marchenko, N.A.; Borch, O.J.; Andreassen, N.

2017-01-01

marine accidents. Therefore, in this study a mostly qualitative analysis and expert judgement is the basis for the risk assessments. Implications for the emergency preparedness system of the region are discussed. The consequences of incidents depend on the incident type, scale and location,....... In this paper we look into the risks of accidents in the Atlantic Arctic based on previous ship accidents and the changes in maritime activity. The risk has to be assessed to ensure a proper level of response in emergency situations. As accidents are rare, there are limited statistics available for Arctic...

40 CFR 68.165 - Offsite consequence analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 15 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Offsite consequence analysis. 68.165 Section 68.165 Protection of Environment ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY (CONTINUED) AIR PROGRAMS (CONTINUED) CHEMICAL ACCIDENT PREVENTION PROVISIONS Risk Management Plan § 68.165 Offsite consequence...

Is High Sexual Desire a Risk for Women's Relationship and Sexual Well-Being?

Science.gov (United States)

Štulhofer, Aleksandar; Bergeron, Sophie; Jurin, Tanja

2016-09-01

Historically, women's sexual desire has been deemed socially problematic. The growing popularity of the concept of hypersexuality-which lists high sexual desire among its core components-poses a risk of re-pathologizing female sexual desire. Data from a 2014 online survey of 2,599 Croatian women aged 18-60 years was used to examine whether high sexual desire is detrimental to women's relationship and sexual well-being. Based on the highest scores on an indicator of sexual desire, 178 women were classified in the high sexual desire (HSD) group; women who scored higher than one standard deviation above the Hypersexual Disorder Screening Inventory mean were categorized in the hypersexuality (HYP) group (n = 239). Fifty-seven women met the classification criteria for both groups (HYP&HSD). Compared to other groups, the HSD was the most sexually active group. Compared to controls, the HYP and HYP&HSD groups-but not the HSD group-reported significantly more negative consequences associated with their sexuality. Compared to the HYP group, women with HSD reported better sexual function, higher sexual satisfaction, and lower odds of negative behavioral consequences. The findings suggest that, at least among women, hypersexuality should not be conflated with high sexual desire and frequent sexual activity.

The implication of using ''consequences'' as a criterion for reactor design

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cave, L.; Holmes, P.

1978-01-01

The influences which may necessitate closer consideration of reactor accident consequences, rather than reactor risk, as a criterion for design are examined briefly. Possible methods for reducing consequences are described and the advantages of inherent features for this purpose are discussed. The cost effectiveness of two possible methods of reducing consequences and risks is estimated. (author)

Risk assessment [Chapter 9

Science.gov (United States)

Dennis S. Ojima; Louis R. Iverson; Brent L. Sohngen; James M. Vose; Christopher W. Woodall; Grant M. Domke; David L. Peterson; Jeremy S. Littell; Stephen N. Matthews; Anantha M. Prasad; Matthew P. Peters; Gary W. Yohe; Megan M. Friggens

2014-01-01

What is "risk" in the context of climate change? How can a "risk-based framework" help assess the effects of climate change and develop adaptation priorities? Risk can be described by the likelihood of an impact occurring and the magnitude of the consequences of the impact (Yohe 2010) (Fig. 9.1). High-magnitude impacts are always...

Accidents, 'black swans' and risks

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Luxat, J.C. [McMaster Univ., Dept. of Engineering Physics, Hamilton, Ontario (Canada)

2013-06-15

Major accidents and natural disasters with severe consequences have occurred in all sectors of industrial activity with relatively high frequency. The severe consequences of concern involve either significant loss of life or major economic loss, or both loss of life and economic loss. Such events have the last two years been referred to as 'black swan' events following publication of Taleb's bestselling book. These events demonstrate limits to PRA application that arise from the underlying high uncertainty associated with the estimation of frequency of occurrence of such events. An approach is proposed in this paper that, consistent with the concept of defense in depth employed by the nuclear industry, augments probabilistic risk assessment with a methodology based upon 'threat - risk assessment'. This approach shifts these very low frequency high consequence 'black swan' events out of the probabilistic risk assessment domain into a deterministic emergency response assessment domain. (author)

Does Alcohol Use Mediate the Association between Consequences Experienced in High School and Consequences Experienced during the First Semester of College?

Science.gov (United States)

Romosz, Ann Marie; Quigley, Brian M.

2013-01-01

Approximately 80% of college students drink alcohol; almost half of these students reporting that they drink to get drunk and over 22% engage in heavy episodic drinking. Heavy alcohol consumption during the transition from high school to college is associated with negative personal and academic consequences. Sixty-seven freshmen volunteered to…

Determinants and Consequences of Non-Interest Income Diversification of Commercial Banks in OECD Countries

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Joon-Ho Hahm

2008-06-01

Full Text Available This paper studies determinants and consequences of theThis paper studies determinants and consequences of the changing income structure of commercial banks in the era of financial conglomeration. Utilizing a dataset of 662 relatively large commercial banks in 29 OECD countries from 1992 to 2006, we find that banks with relatively large asset sizes, low net interest margins, high impaired loan ratios, and high cost-income ratios tend to exhibit higher non-interest income shares. As for macroeconomic factors, banks in countries with slow economic growth, a stable inflation environment, and well- developed stock markets tend to show higher non-interest income shares. Second, we investigate the consequences of non-interest income expansion on bank profitability and risks. While the positive effects on profit and capital adequacy seem to become weaker under the consideration of macroeconomic factors and endogeneity problems, the adverse impact on profit variability remains robust. Overall, these findings suggest that expanding toward non-interest income may not produce desired income diversification effects, and it does not necessarily imply a shift toward superior return-risk frontiers.

Serious mental illness and negative substance use consequences among adults on probation.

Science.gov (United States)

Rossheim, Matthew E; Livingston, Melvin D; Lerch, Jennifer A; Taxman, Faye S; Walters, Scott T

2018-03-22

Adults on probation are at greater risk of both using substances and having a mental disorder compared to the general population. Several theories explain the relationship between substance use and poor mental health. However, the interaction between substance use, mental health, and substance-related consequences is not well understood. A better understanding of this relationship may help treatment programs become more responsive to people with serious mental illness (SMI). The current study used interview data from 313 adults on probation who reported recent substance use. We examined associations between SMI risk, substance use, and substance use consequences. A substantial proportion of the sample (37.5%) screened at risk of having a SMI. Adjusting for type and amount of substance use, those who screened at risk of having a SMI reported more negative substance use consequences. Significant interaction effects were observed between use of alcohol or opiates and SMI risk. Alcohol use was associated with more negative substance use consequences among those at risk of SMI, while opiate use was associated with more consequences among those not at risk. Programs are sorely needed to identify and treat adults with comorbid substance use and mental health symptoms, particularly for adults in the justice system. Clinicians should carefully consider how mental health may interact with substance use to exacerbate consequences.

Mining geriatric assessment data for in-patient fall prediction models and high-risk subgroups.

Science.gov (United States)

Marschollek, Michael; Gövercin, Mehmet; Rust, Stefan; Gietzelt, Matthias; Schulze, Mareike; Wolf, Klaus-Hendrik; Steinhagen-Thiessen, Elisabeth

2012-03-14

Hospital in-patient falls constitute a prominent problem in terms of costs and consequences. Geriatric institutions are most often affected, and common screening tools cannot predict in-patient falls consistently. Our objectives are to derive comprehensible fall risk classification models from a large data set of geriatric in-patients' assessment data and to evaluate their predictive performance (aim#1), and to identify high-risk subgroups from the data (aim#2). A data set of n = 5,176 single in-patient episodes covering 1.5 years of admissions to a geriatric hospital were extracted from the hospital's data base and matched with fall incident reports (n = 493). A classification tree model was induced using the C4.5 algorithm as well as a logistic regression model, and their predictive performance was evaluated. Furthermore, high-risk subgroups were identified from extracted classification rules with a support of more than 100 instances. The classification tree model showed an overall classification accuracy of 66%, with a sensitivity of 55.4%, a specificity of 67.1%, positive and negative predictive values of 15% resp. 93.5%. Five high-risk groups were identified, defined by high age, low Barthel index, cognitive impairment, multi-medication and co-morbidity. Our results show that a little more than half of the fallers may be identified correctly by our model, but the positive predictive value is too low to be applicable. Non-fallers, on the other hand, may be sorted out with the model quite well. The high-risk subgroups and the risk factors identified (age, low ADL score, cognitive impairment, institutionalization, polypharmacy and co-morbidity) reflect domain knowledge and may be used to screen certain subgroups of patients with a high risk of falling. Classification models derived from a large data set using data mining methods can compete with current dedicated fall risk screening tools, yet lack diagnostic precision. High-risk subgroups may be identified

Mining geriatric assessment data for in-patient fall prediction models and high-risk subgroups

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marschollek Michael

2012-03-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Hospital in-patient falls constitute a prominent problem in terms of costs and consequences. Geriatric institutions are most often affected, and common screening tools cannot predict in-patient falls consistently. Our objectives are to derive comprehensible fall risk classification models from a large data set of geriatric in-patients' assessment data and to evaluate their predictive performance (aim#1, and to identify high-risk subgroups from the data (aim#2. Methods A data set of n = 5,176 single in-patient episodes covering 1.5 years of admissions to a geriatric hospital were extracted from the hospital's data base and matched with fall incident reports (n = 493. A classification tree model was induced using the C4.5 algorithm as well as a logistic regression model, and their predictive performance was evaluated. Furthermore, high-risk subgroups were identified from extracted classification rules with a support of more than 100 instances. Results The classification tree model showed an overall classification accuracy of 66%, with a sensitivity of 55.4%, a specificity of 67.1%, positive and negative predictive values of 15% resp. 93.5%. Five high-risk groups were identified, defined by high age, low Barthel index, cognitive impairment, multi-medication and co-morbidity. Conclusions Our results show that a little more than half of the fallers may be identified correctly by our model, but the positive predictive value is too low to be applicable. Non-fallers, on the other hand, may be sorted out with the model quite well. The high-risk subgroups and the risk factors identified (age, low ADL score, cognitive impairment, institutionalization, polypharmacy and co-morbidity reflect domain knowledge and may be used to screen certain subgroups of patients with a high risk of falling. Classification models derived from a large data set using data mining methods can compete with current dedicated fall risk screening tools, yet lack

Social anxiety and drinking refusal self-efficacy moderate the relationship between drinking game participation and alcohol-related consequences.

Science.gov (United States)

Kenney, Shannon R; Napper, Lucy E; LaBrie, Joseph W

2014-09-01

Participation in drinking games is associated with excessive drinking and alcohol risks. Despite the growing literature documenting the ubiquity and consequences of drinking games, limited research has examined the influence of psychosocial factors on the experience of negative consequences as the result of drinking game participation. The current event-level study examined the relationships among drinking game participation, social anxiety, drinking refusal self-efficacy (DRSE) and alcohol-related consequences in a sample of college students. Participants (n = 976) reported on their most recent drinking occasion in the past month in which they did not preparty. After controlling for sex, age, and typical drinking, higher levels of social anxiety, lower levels of DRSE, and playing drinking games predicted greater alcohol-related consequences. Moreover, two-way interactions (Social Anxiety × Drinking Games, DRSE × Drinking Games) demonstrated that social anxiety and DRSE each moderated the relationship between drinking game participation and alcohol-related consequences. Participation in drinking games resulted in more alcohol problems for students with high social anxiety, but not low social anxiety. Students with low DRSE experienced high levels of consequences regardless of whether they participated in drinking games; however, drinking game participation was associated with more consequences for students confident in their ability to resist drinking. Findings highlight the important role that social anxiety and DRSE play in drinking game-related risk, and hence provide valuable implications for screening at-risk students and designing targeted harm reduction interventions that address social anxiety and drink refusal in the context of drinking games.

Radical prostatectomy for high-risk prostate cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Yossepowitch, Ofer; Eastham, James A

2008-06-01

Consensus recommendations for the identification and treatment of men whose apparent organ confined prostate cancer has high risk features are lacking. Despite ongoing refinements in surgical technique and improvements in morbidity and functional outcomes, the tradition of steering high-risk patients away from radical prostatectomy (RP) remains steadfast. We performed a medical literature search in English using MEDLINE/PubMed that addressed high risk prostate cancer. We analyzed the literature with respect to the historical evolution of this concept, current risk stratification schemes and treatment guidelines and related short and long term outcomes following RP. Contemporary evidence suggest that patients classified with high-risk prostate cancer by commonly used definitions do not have a uniformly poor prognosis after RP. Many cancers categorized clinically as high risk are actually pathologically confined to the prostate, and most men with such cancers who undergo RP are alive and free of additional therapy long after surgery. RP in the high-risk setting appears to be associated with a similar morbidity as in lower-risk patients. Men with clinically localized high-risk prostate cancer should not be categorically disqualified from local definitive therapy with RP. With careful attention to surgical technique, cancer control rates should improve further, and adverse effects on quality of life after RP should continue to decrease.

Assessments of high-consequence platforms: Issues and applications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Digre, K.A.; Craig, M.J.K.

1994-01-01

An API task group has developed a process for the assessment of existing platforms to determine their fitness for purpose. This has been released as a draft supplement to API RP 2A-WSD, 20th edition. Details and the background of this work are described in a companion paper. The assessment of a platform's fitness for purpose involves firstly a definition of the platform's exposure; and secondly, an evaluation of the platform's predicted performance relative to the assessment criteria associated with that exposure. This paper deals with platforms in the high exposure category. That is, platforms whose potential failure consequences, in terms of potential life loss and environmental damage, are significant. The criteria for placement of a platform in a high exposure category are explained, as are the performance criteria demanded of these high exposure platforms. In the companion paper, the metocean assessment process and associated API-developed acceptance criteria are highlighted. This paper addresses primarily ice and seismic loading assessments and associated API-developed criteria, which are based on over thirty years of successful offshore operation and field experience, as well as extrapolation of land-based performance criteria. Three West Coast, USA production platforms are used for illustration

Back pain and its consequences among Polish Air Force pilots flying high performance aircraft

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aleksandra Truszczyńska

2014-04-01

Full Text Available Objectives: Back pain in Air Force fast jet pilots has been studied by several air forces and found to be relatively common. The objective of the study was to determine the prevalence and degree of the pain intensity in the cervical, thoracic and lumbar spine, subjective risk factors and their effect on the pilots' performance while flying high maneuver aircrafts and the consequences for cognitive deficiencies. Material and Methods: The study was designed as a retrospective, anonymous questionnaire survey, collecting data on the age, aircraft type, flying hours, pain characteristics, physical activity, etc. The study was participated by 94 pilots aged 28-45 years (mean age: 35.9±3.3 years, actively flying fast jet aircrafts Su-22, Mig-29 and F-16. The estimates regarding the level of the subjective back pain were established using visual analogue scales (VAS. Results: The values of the Cochran and Cox T-test for heterogeneous variances are as follows: for the total number of flying hours: F = 2.53, p = 0.0145, for the pilot's age: F = 3.15, p = 0.003, and for the BMI factor F = 2.73, p = 0.008. Conclusions: Our questionnaire survey showed a significant problem regarding spinal conditions in high performance aircraft pilots. The determination of the risk factors may lead to solving this problem and help eliminate the effect of the unfavorable environment on piloting jet aircrafts. Experiencing back pain during the flight might influence the mission performance and flight safety. The costs of pilots education are enormous and inability to fly, or even disability, leads to considerable economic loss. More research on specific prevention strategies is warranted in order to improve the in-flight working environment of fighter pilots.

Health consequences of the Chernobyl accident: thyroid diseases

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nagataki, Shigenobu; Ashizawa, Kiyoto

1997-01-01

An International Conference entitled 'One decade after Chernobyl: Summing up the consequences of the accident' was held at the Vienna from 8 to 12 April 1996. The aim of conference was to seek a common and conclusive understanding of the nature and magnitude of the consequences of the Chernobyl accident. It was concluded that a highly significant increase in the incidence of thyroid cancer among those persons in the affected areas who were children in 1986 is the only clear evidence to data of a public health impact of radiation exposure as a result of the Chernobyl accident and both temporal and geographical distributions clearly indicate a relationship of the increase in incidence to radiation exposure due to the Chernobyl accident. To clarify the relationship between thyroid cancer and radioactive fallout more clearly, a long term prospective study (case-control/cohort) should be conducted in the highly risk groups and the analysis of accurate estimation of exposure dose to external and/or internal radiation is needed. (author)

The several faces of fear: ecological consequences of predation risk in a lagoon model system

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rafael Dettogni Guariento

Full Text Available AIM: The aim of this study was to evaluate the role of predation risk on the occurrence of trophic cascades in a benthic food chain, and detect if the ecological consequences of predation risk can reverberate in patterns observed across different hierarchical scales, such as prey size, prey growth efficiency and nutrient recycling patterns. METHODS: The model system used in the present experiment consisted of a simple linear food chain comprising a predator, a consumer and periphyton as basal resources. For 2 weeks, we manipulated predation risk using caged predators, incapable of killing their prey, across twelve outdoor mesocosms, simulating natural lagoon conditions. RESULTS: Our results showed that predation risk can be responsible for the occurrence of a trophic cascade and the strength of the cascade is proportional to the intensity of risk. Predation risk can also negatively influence prey biomass and growth efficiency as well as affect nutrient recycling patterns by altering prey nutrient excretion rates. Through a simple mathematical formulation, we attempted to show that individual-level experimental results can be generalized to natural populations if evolutionary constraints to prey fitness can be reproduced in experimental conditions. CONCLUSIONS: Our results corroborate to integrate ecosystem dynamics with animal behavior, highlighting that not only bottom-up but also top-down mechanisms are responsible for determining ecosystem properties. We ultimately claim that prey adaptive foraging may serve to integrate ecosystem and evolutionary ecology, resulting in the development of a more robust and predictive theory of the functioning of aquatic ecosystems.

Exploring the context of trafficking and adolescent sex industry involvement in Tijuana, Mexico: consequences for HIV risk and prevention.

Science.gov (United States)

Goldenberg, Shira M; Silverman, Jay G; Engstrom, David; Bojorquez-Chapela, Ietza; Usita, Paula; Rolón, María Luisa; Strathdee, Steffanie A

2015-04-01

Coerced and adolescent sex industry involvement are linked to serious health and social consequences, including enhanced risk of HIV infection. Using ethnographic fieldwork, including interviews with 30 female sex workers with a history of coerced or adolescent sex industry involvement, we describe contextual factors influencing vulnerability to coerced and adolescent sex industry entry and their impacts on HIV risk and prevention. Early gender-based violence and economic vulnerability perpetuated vulnerability to coercion and adolescent sex exchange, while HIV risk mitigation capacities improved with increased age, control over working conditions, and experience. Structural interventions addressing gender-based violence, economic factors, and HIV prevention among all females who exchange sex are needed. © The Author(s) 2015.

Particle size - An important factor in environmental consequence modeling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yuan, Y.C.; MacFarlane, D.

1991-01-01

Most available environmental transport and dosimetry codes for radiological consequence analysis are designed primarily for estimating dose and health consequences to specific off-site individuals as well as the population as a whole from nuclear facilities operating under either normal or accident conditions. Models developed for these types of analyses are generally based on assumptions that the receptors are at great distances (several kilometers), and the releases are prolonged and filtered. This allows the use of simplified approaches such as averaged meteorological conditions and the use of a single (small) particle size for atmospheric transport and dosimetry analysis. Source depletion from particle settling, settle-out, and deposition is often ignored. This paper estimates the effects of large particles on the resulting dose consequences from an atmospheric release. The computer program AI-RISK has been developed to perform multiparticle-sized atmospheric transport, dose, and pathway analyses for estimating potential human health consequences from the accidental release of radioactive materials. The program was originally developed to facilitate comprehensive analyses of health consequences, ground contamination, and cleanup associated with possible energetic chemical reactions in high-level radioactive waste (HLW) tanks at a US Department of Energy site

Health consequences of youth unemployment--review from a gender perspective.

Science.gov (United States)

Hammarström, A

1994-03-01

Current research is classified into different theoretical approaches, mainly economic deprivation theories, stress-related theories, gender theories and different psychological and sociological theories. The correlations between unemployment and ill-health are explained as a result of both selection and exposure. The societal consequences of youth unemployment have been studied in aggregate studies. The familial consequences is a neglected area, but there is evidence of increased illness as well as battering of wives and children. Almost all research has been focused on the individual and mainly on the psychological consequences. Consistent relationships are found between unemployment and minor psychological disorders. Few studies have included somatic health but the results indicate increased physiological illness, especially among unemployed girls. Increased health care consumption has been documented. There are evidence that unemployment is a risk indicator for both increasing alcohol consumption, particularly in young men. Unemployment is also associated with increased tobacco consumption, increased use of illicit drugs as well as deteriorated health behaviour. The mortality rate is significantly higher among unemployed young men and women, especially in suicides and accidents. Social consequences include increased risk of alienation, lack of financial resources, criminality and future exclusion from the labour market. As mediating factors social support, high employment rate, negative attitudes towards work and high possibility of control have been documented to have a protective effect on health. Research should now be directed towards more qualitative methods, based on theoretical models, in order to search for deeper mechanisms, mediating factors and explanatory theories of the unevenly distributed health in society, in which unemployment has been proved to be one important factor.

Epidemiology of posttraumatic stress disorder: prevalence, correlates and consequences

Science.gov (United States)

Atwoli, Lukoye; Stein, Dan J.; Koenen, Karestan C.; McLaughlin, Katie A.

2015-01-01

Purpose of review This review discusses recent findings from epidemiological surveys of traumatic events and posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) globally, including their prevalence, risk factors, and consequences in the community. Recent findings A number of studies on the epidemiology of PTSD have recently been published from diverse countries, with new methodological innovations introduced. Such work has not only documented the prevalence of PTSD in different settings, but has also shed new light on the PTSD conditional risk associated with specific traumatic events, and on the morbidity and comorbidities associated with these events. Summary Recent community studies show that trauma exposure is higher in lower-income countries compared with high-income countries. PTSD prevalence rates are largely similar across countries, however, with the highest rates being found in postconflict settings. Trauma and PTSD-risk factors are distributed differently in lower-income countries compared with high-income countries, with sociodemographic factors contributing more to this risk in high-income than low-income countries. Apart from PTSD, trauma exposure is also associated with several chronic physical conditions. These findings indicate a high burden of trauma exposure in low-income countries and postconflict settings, where access to trained mental health professionals is typically low. PMID:26001922

Client experiences with perinatal healthcare for high-risk and low-risk women

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Stenus, Cherelle M.V.; Boere-Boonekamp, Magda M.; Kerkhof, Erna F.G.M.; Need, Ariana

2018-01-01

Problem: It is unknown if client experiences with perinatal healthcare differ between low-risk and high-risk women. Background: In the Netherlands, risk selection divides pregnant women into low- and high-risk groups. Receiving news that a pregnancy or childbirth has an increased likelihood of

Improving antenatal risk assessment in women exposed to high risks.

Science.gov (United States)

Perry, Natasha; Newman, Louise K; Hunter, Mick; Dunlop, Adrian

2015-01-01

Antenatal substance use and related psychosocial risk factors are known to increase the likelihood of child protection involvement; less is known about the predictive nature of maternal reflective functioning (RF) in this population. This preliminary study assessed psychosocial and psychological risk factors for a group of substance dependent women exposed to high risks in pregnancy, and their impact on child protection involvement. Pregnant women on opiate substitution treatment (n = 11) and a comparison group (n = 15) were recruited during their third trimester to complete measures of RF (Pregnancy Interview), childhood trauma, mental health and psychosocial assessments. At postnatal follow-up, RF was reassessed (Parent Development Interview - Revised Short Version) and mother-infant dyads were videotaped to assess emotional availability (EA). Child protection services were contacted to determine if any concerns had been raised for infant safety. Significant between-group differences were observed for demographics, psychosocial factors, trauma and mental health symptoms. Unexpectedly, no significant differences were found for RF or EA between groups. Eight women in the 'exposed to high risks' group became involved with child protection services. Reflective functioning was not significantly associated with psychosocial risk factors, and therefore did not mediate the outcome of child protection involvement. Women 'exposed to high risks' were equally able to generate a model of their own and their infants' mental states and should not be seen within a deficit perspective. Further research is required to better understand the range of risk factors that predict child protection involvement in high risk groups. © The Author(s) 2013.

[A model list of high risk drugs].

Science.gov (United States)

Cotrina Luque, J; Guerrero Aznar, M D; Alvarez del Vayo Benito, C; Jimenez Mesa, E; Guzman Laura, K P; Fernández Fernández, L

2013-12-01

«High-risk drugs» are those that have a very high «risk» of causing death or serious injury if an error occurs during its use. The Institute for Safe Medication Practices (ISMP) has prepared a high-risk drugs list applicable to the general population (with no differences between the pediatric and adult population). Thus, there is a lack of information for the pediatric population. The main objective of this work is to develop a high-risk drug list adapted to the neonatal or pediatric population as a reference model for the pediatric hospital health workforce. We made a literature search in May 2012 to identify any published lists or references in relation to pediatric and/or neonatal high-risk drugs. A total of 15 studies were found, from which 9 were selected. A model list was developed mainly based on the ISMP one, adding strongly perceived pediatric risk drugs and removing those where the pediatric use was anecdotal. There is no published list that suits pediatric risk management. The list of pediatric and neonatal high-risk drugs presented here could be a «reference list of high-risk drugs » for pediatric hospitals. Using this list and training will help to prevent medication errors in each drug supply chain (prescribing, transcribing, dispensing and administration). Copyright © 2013 Asociación Española de Pediatría. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

A metasynthesis of risk perception in women with high risk pregnancies

OpenAIRE

Lee, S.; Ayers, S.; Holden, D.

2014-01-01

Introduction: Risk perception in women with high risk pregnancies affects their decisions about perinatal care and is of interest to anyone involved in the care of pregnant women. This paper provides a metasynthesis of qualitative studies of risk perception in women with high risk pregnancies.\\ud \\ud Methods: A systematic search of eight electronic databases was conducted. Additional papers were obtained through searching references of identified articles. Six studies were identified that rep...

The cardiac safety of aripiprazole treatment in patients at high risk for torsade

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Polcwiartek, Christoffer; Sneider, Benjamin; Graff, Claus

2015-01-01

RATIONALE: Certain antipsychotics increase the risk of heart rate-corrected QT (QTc) prolongation and consequently Torsades de Pointes (TdP) and sudden cardiac death (SCD). Drug-induced Brugada syndrome (BrS) is also associated with SCD. Most SCDs occur in patients with additional cardiac risk fa...

49 CFR 192.905 - How does an operator identify a high consequence area?

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

...) PIPELINE AND HAZARDOUS MATERIALS SAFETY ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION (CONTINUED) PIPELINE SAFETY TRANSPORTATION OF NATURAL AND OTHER GAS BY PIPELINE: MINIMUM FEDERAL SAFETY STANDARDS Gas Transmission Pipeline Integrity Management § 192.905 How does an operator identify a high consequence area? (a...

Evaluation of nuclear accidents consequences. Risk assessment methodologies, current status and applications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rodriguez, J.M.

1996-01-01

General description of the structure and process of the probabilistic methods of assessment the external consequences in the event of nuclear accidents is presented. attention is paid in the interface with Probabilistic Safety Analysis level 3 results (source term evaluation) Also are described key issues in accident consequence evaluation as: effects evaluated (early and late health effects and economic effects due to countermeasures), presentation of accident consequences results, computer codes. Briefly are presented some relevant areas for the applications of Accident Consequence Evaluation

Parental Support, Mental Health, and Alcohol and Marijuana Use in National and High-Risk African-American Adolescent Samples

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Julie Maslowsky

2015-01-01

Full Text Available African-American adolescents experience disproportionate rates of negative consequences of substance use despite using substances at average or below-average rates. Due to underrepresentation of African-American adolescents in etiological literature, risk and protective processes associated with their substance use require further study. This study examines the role of parental support in adolescents’ conduct problems (CPs, depressive symptoms (DSs, and alcohol and marijuana use in a national sample and a high-risk sample of African-American adolescents. In both samples, parental support was inversely related to adolescent CPs, DSs, and alcohol and marijuana use. CPs, but not DSs, partially mediated the relation of parental support to substance use. Results were consistent across the national and high-risk samples, suggesting that the protective effect of parental support applies to African-American adolescents from a range of demographic backgrounds.

[Medical and biological consequences of nuclear disasters].

Science.gov (United States)

Stalpers, Lukas J A; van Dullemen, Simon; Franken, N A P Klaas

2012-01-01

Medical risks of radiation exaggerated; psychological risks underestimated. The discussion about atomic energy has become topical again following the nuclear accident in Fukushima. There is some argument about the gravity of medical and biological consequences of prolonged exposure to radiation. The risk of cancer following a low dose of radiation is usually estimated by linear extrapolation of the incidence of cancer among survivors of the atomic bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945. The radiobiological linear-quadratic model (LQ-model) gives a more accurate description of observed data, is radiobiologically more plausible and is better supported by experimental and clinical data. On the basis of this model there is less risk of cancer being induced following radiation exposure. The gravest consequence of Chernobyl and Fukushima is not the medical and biological damage, but the psychological and economical impact on rescue workers and former inhabitants.

High resolution estimates of the corrosion risk for cultural heritage in Italy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

De Marco, Alessandra; Screpanti, Augusto; Mircea, Mihaela; Piersanti, Antonio; Proietti, Chiara; Fornasier, M. Francesca

2017-01-01

Air pollution plays a pivotal role in the deterioration of many materials used in buildings and cultural monuments causing an inestimable damage. This study aims to estimate the impacts of air pollution (SO 2 , HNO 3 , O 3 , PM 10 ) and meteorological conditions (temperature, precipitation, relative humidity) on limestone, copper and bronze based on high resolution air quality data-base produced with AMS-MINNI modelling system over the Italian territory over the time period 2003–2010. A comparison between high resolution data (AMS-MINNI grid, 4 × 4 km) and low resolution data (EMEP grid, 50 × 50 km) has been performed. Our results pointed out that the corrosion levels for limestone, copper and bronze are decreased in Italy from 2003 to 2010 in relation to decrease of pollutant concentrations. However, some problem related to air pollution persists especially in Northern and Southern Italy. In particular, PM 10 and HNO 3 are considered the main responsible for limestone corrosion. Moreover, the high resolution data (AMS-MINNI) allowed the identification of risk areas that are not visible with the low resolution data (EMEP modelling system) in all considered years and, especially, in the limestone case. Consequently, high resolution air quality simulations are suitable to provide concrete benefits in providing information for national effective policy against corrosion risk for cultural heritage, also in the context of climate changes that are affecting strongly Mediterranean basin. - Highlights: • Air pollution plays a pivotal role in the deterioration of cultural materials. • Limestone, copper and bronze corrosion levels decreased in Italy from 2003 to 2010. • PM 10 is considered the main responsible for limestone corrosion in Northern Italy. • HNO3 is considered the main responsible for limestone corrosion in all analyzed years. • High-resolution data are particularly useful to define area at risk for corrosion. - Importance of the high

[Stigma - risk factor and consequence of suicidal behavior : Implications for suicide prevention].

Science.gov (United States)

Oexle, N; Rüsch, N

2017-11-16

Mental illness, previous suicidal behavior and loss of a relative by suicide are strong risk factors for suicidality. Both mental illness and suicide are stigmatized, which is a burden for those affected and potentially contributes to suicidality among stigmatized individuals. Many consequences of stigma, e. g. social isolation, low self-esteem and hopelessness, are well-known predictors of suicidality. Interventions to reduce stigmatization might therefore be an important component of successful suicide prevention. This paper discusses the currently available knowledge regarding this hypothesis. Many studies confirmed the association between the stigmatization of mental illness and suicidality and there is initial evidence for the influence of suicide stigma and suicidality. Nevertheless, the effectiveness of anti-stigma interventions to reduce suicidality and prevent suicide has not yet been tested. Reducing stigma among members of the general population and mental health care professionals as well as programs to support individuals in coping with stigmatization could be important components of successful suicide prevention.

Risks and Transaction Costs of Distributed-Ledger Fintech: Boundary Effects and Consequences

OpenAIRE

Kaivanto, Kim; Prince, Daniel

2017-01-01

Fintech business models based on distributed ledgers -- and their smart-contract variants in particular -- offer the prospect of democratizing access to faster, anywhere-accessible, lower cost, reliable-and-secure high-quality financial services. In addition to holding great, economically transformative promise, these business models pose new, little-studied risks and transaction costs. However, these risks and transaction costs are not evident during the demonstration and testing phases of d...

Resuscitation of newborn in high risk deliveries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yousaf, U.F.; Hayat, S.

2015-01-01

High risk deliveries are usually associated with increased neonatal mortality and morbidity. Neonatal resuscitation can appreciably affect the outcome in these types of deliveries. Presence of personnel trained in basic neonatal resuscitation at the time of delivery can play an important role in reducing perinatal complications in neonates at risk. The study was carried out to evaluate the effects of newborn resuscitation on neonatal outcome in high risk deliveries. Methods: This descriptive case series was carried out at the Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Jinnah Hospital, Lahore. Ninety consecutive high risk deliveries were included and attended by paediatricians trained in newborn resuscitation. Babies delivered by elective Caesarean section, normal spontaneous vaginal deliveries and still births were excluded. Neonatal resuscitation was performed in babies who failed to initiate breathing in the first minute after birth. Data was analyzed using SPSS-16.0. Results: A total of 90 high risk deliveries were included in the study. Emergency caesarean section was the mode of delivery in 94.4% (n=85) cases and spontaneous vaginal delivery in 5.6% (n=5). Preterm pregnancy was the major high risk factor. Newborn resuscitation was required in 37.8% (n=34) of all high risk deliveries (p=0.013). All the new-borns who required resuscitation survived. Conclusion: New-born resuscitation is required in high risk pregnancies and personnel trained in newborn resuscitation should be available at the time of delivery. (author)

Interaction between physical and psychosocial work risk factors for low back symptoms and its consequences amongst Indonesian coal mining workers.

Science.gov (United States)

Widanarko, Baiduri; Legg, Stephen; Devereux, Jason; Stevenson, Mark

2015-01-01

This study assessed the interaction between physical and psychosocial factors for low back symptoms (LBS) and its consequences (reduced activities and absenteeism) in a developing country. A sample of 1294 Indonesian coal mining workers reported occupational exposures, LBS and its consequences using a self-administered questionnaire. Respondents were placed into one of four combination exposure groups: high physical and high psychosocial (HPhyHPsy); high physical and low psychosocial (HPhyLPsy); low physical and high psychosocial (LPhyHPsy), and; low physical and low psychosocial (LPhyLPsy). The attributable proportion due to interaction between physical and psychosocial factors was examined. Individuals in the HPhyHPsy group were most likely to report LBS (OR 5.42, 95% CI 3.30-8.89), reduced activities (OR 4.89, 95% CI 3.09-7.74), and absenteeism (OR 4.96, 95% CI 3.05-8.06). Interactions between physical and psychosocial factors were present for LBS, reduced activities, and absenteeism; although for LBS and absenteeism the interactions were not significant. Current smokers were more likely to report LBS consequences. Permanent employment and night shift work increased the odds of LBS and its consequences. We conclude that interventions aimed at reducing LBS and its consequences should address both physical and psychosocial factors, with a focus on smokers, permanent employment and night shift work. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd and The Ergonomics Society. All rights reserved.

Addressing risk factors for child abuse among high risk pregnant women: design of a randomised controlled trial of the nurse family partnership in Dutch preventive health care

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mejdoubi Jamila

2011-10-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Low socio-economic status combined with other risk factors affects a person's physical and psychosocial health from childhood to adulthood. The societal impact of these problems is huge, and the consequences carry on into the next generation(s. Although several studies show these consequences, only a few actually intervene on these issues. In the United States, the Nurse Family Partnership focuses on high risk pregnant women and their children. The main goal of this program is primary prevention of child abuse. The Netherlands is the first country outside the United States allowed to translate and culturally adapt the Nurse Family Partnership into VoorZorg. The aim of the present study is to assess whether VoorZorg is as effective in the Netherland as in the United States. Methods The study consists of three partly overlapping phases. Phase 1 was the translation and cultural adaptation of Nurse Family Partnership and the design of a two-stage selection procedure. Phase 2 was a pilot study to examine the conditions for implementation. Phase 3 is the randomized controlled trial of VoorZorg compared to the care as usual. Primary outcome measures were smoking cessation during pregnancy and after birth, birth outcomes, child development, child abuse and domestic violence. The secondary outcome measure was the number of risk factors present. Discussion This study shows that the Nurse Family Partnership was successfully translated and culturally adapted into the Dutch health care system and that this program fulfills the needs of high-risk pregnant women. We hypothesize that this program will be effective in addressing risk factors that operate during pregnancy and childhood and compromise fetal and child development. Trial registration Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN16131117

Risk cognition as a new communication tool for high-tech industries. Comparative analysis between nuclear industry and biotechnology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Steinhaeusler, F.; Wieland, P.

2000-01-01

Concerns of political decision makers, the media, and members of the public with regard to high-tech industries focus upon two main issues: safety and socio-economic impact. In this regard the nuclear industry and biotechnology, commonly associated as 'high risk and low trust situation', face the problems of the assessment of potentially dangerous or negative socio-economic consequences of very improbable risks and the communication with the various audiences. It is common for the national authorities in this case to conduct the process of quantified risk analysis (QRA). Unfortunately, hitherto the communication of the results obtained by QRA to the different non-scientific/non-technical target groups listed above is generally dissatisfactory, resulting in the frequent rejection of nuclear- and biotechnology. The main reason is that it has generally not been recognized that QRA is but the final step in the cognition of risk from both real as well as perceived hazards, preceded by risk estimation (RES) and risk evaluation (REV). RES is largely the scientific identification of hazards leading formally to the assessment of mechanisms of harmful consequences, and latterly to the assessment of the probability of its occurrence. Contrary to that, REV deals with the subjective judgment of the significance of assessed individual and societal risks. As such, REV involves individual cognitions of hazards and risks, such as perceptions, knowledge and understanding. In this paper the role of risk cognition in communicating issues associated with high-tech industrial activities, such as nuclear industry and biotechnology, is discussed. Common factors influencing risk perception are dealt with in a comparative manner in order to draw practically applicable lessons from it. This comparative analysis revealed the following results: (1)QRA-derived risk estimation measures used to quantify the risk from potential hazard associated with high-tech industries per se are not suitable

The trade-off between expected risk and the potential for large accidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Niehaus, F.; de Leon, G.; Cullingford, M.

1984-01-01

This paper, by Niehaus, de Leon, and Cullingford, examines the relationship between expected risk and the potential for large accidents. Using historical data for airplane accidents from 19471980, the authors show that a reduction of the expected value of risk often results in an increase in the potential for catastrophe. Phrased differently, the authors suggest that there may be a nenessary trade-off between high-probability/low-consequence risk and low-probability/high-consequence risk. The implications of this study for energy systems, for oil and gas supply, and for nuclear systems are also given

Epidemiological and economic consequences of purchasing livestock infected with Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kirkeby, Carsten Thure; Græsbøll, Kaare; Nielsen, Søren Saxmose

2017-01-01

of the infection. One strategy to control PTB in a herd is to purchase animals from farms with a low risk of MAP infection. We wanted to investigate the epidemiological and economic consequences of buying livestock from different supplier farms of low, medium or high risk, as well as farms with unknown status. We...... one, five or ten infected animals annually into an initially infection-free herd was also modeled. Our findings show that once infected, a farm can relatively safely purchase animals from other low and medium-risk farms without experiencing an increase in the prevalence, highlighting the importance...... of certification programmes. Furthermore, farms free of MAP are highly susceptible and cannot purchase more than a small number of animals per year without having a high risk of being infected. The probability of spontaneous fadeout after 10 years was 82% when introducing a single infected animal into an initially...

Sun-protective behaviors in populations at high risk for skin cancer

Science.gov (United States)

Diao, Diana Y; Lee, Tim K

2014-01-01

Over 3 million new cases of skin cancer are diagnosed in the US annually. Melanoma, a subtype of skin cancer that can be fatal if the disease is not detected and treated at an early stage, is the most common cancer for those aged 25–29 years and the second most common cancer in adolescents and young adults aged 15–29 years. The primary carcinogen for the genesis of skin cancers is ultraviolet light from solar radiation and tanning beds. In spite of massive health campaigns to raise public awareness on ultraviolet radiation, sun-protective practices still fall behind. A plausible explanation is the lack of behavioral change in the populations at risk; in this review article, we examine sun-protective behavior in the four high-risk skin cancer groups: skin cancer survivors, individuals with a family history of melanoma, individuals with physical characteristics associated with skin cancer risk, and organ transplantation patients. Findings in the literature demonstrate that increased knowledge and awareness does not consequently translate into behavioral changes in practice. Behavior can differ as a result of different attitudes and beliefs, depending on the population at risk. Thus, intervention should be tailored to the population targeted. A multidisciplinary health team providing consultation and education is required to influence these much needed changes. PMID:24379732

German offsite accident consequence model for nuclear facilities: further development and application

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bayer, A.

1985-01-01

The German Offsite Accident Consequence Model - first applied in the German Risk Study for nuclear power plants with light water reactors - has been further developed with the improvement of several important submodels in the areas of atmospheric dispersion, shielding effects of houses, and the foodchains. To aid interpretation, the presentation of results has been extended with special emphasis on the presentation of the loss of life expectancy. The accident consequence model has been further developed for application to risk assessments for other nuclear facilities, e.g., the liquid metal fast breeder reactor (SNR-300) and the high temperature gas cooled reactor. Moreover the model have been further developed in the area of optimal countermeasure strategies (sheltering, evacuation, etc.) in the case of the Central European conditions. Preliminary considerations has been performed in connection with safety goals on the basis of doses

Evaluation of sanitary consequences of Chernobyl accident in France: epidemiological monitoring device, state of knowledge, evaluation of risks and perspectives; Evaluation des consequences sanitaires de l'accident de Tchernobyl en France: dispositif de surveillance epidemiologique, etat des connaissances, evaluation des risques et perspectives

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Verger, P.; Champion, D.; Gourmelon, P.; Hubert, Ph.; Joly, J.; Renaud, Ph.; Tirmarche, M.; Vidal, M. [CEA/Fontenay-aux-Roses, Inst. de Protection et de Surete Nucleaire, IPSN, 92 (France); Cherie-Challine, L.; Boutou, O.; Isnard, H.; Jouan, M.; Pirard, Ph. [Institut National de Veille Sanitaire, 94 - Saint-Maurice (France)

2000-12-01

The objectives of this document are firstly, to present the situation of knowledge both on the sanitary consequences of the Chernobyl accident and on the risk factors of thyroid cancers, these ones constituting one of the most principal consequences observed in Belarus, in Ukraine and Russia; secondly, the give the principal system contributing to the epidemiological surveillance of effects coming from a exposure to ionizing radiations, in France and to give the knowledge on incidence and mortality of thyroid cancer in France; thirdly, to discuss the pertinence and the feasibility of epidemiological approaches that could be considered to answer questions that the public and authorities ask relatively to the sanitary consequences of Chernobyl accident in France; fourthly to male a calculation of thyroid cancer risk in relation with Chernobyl fallout in France from works and studies made from 1986 on the consequences of this disaster in terms of radioecology and dosimetry at the national level. Besides, the improvement of thyroid cancer surveillance is also tackled. (N.C.)

Comparison of the Mini Mental State Examination and depressive symptoms between high cardiovascular risk and healthy community elderly groups

Science.gov (United States)

da Costa, Amanda Lucas; Varela, Juliana Santos; Mazetti, Osmar; Restelatto, Luciane; Costa, Andry Fitterman; Godinho, Claudia; Camozzato, Ana Luiza; Picon, Paulo D.; Chaves, Márcia L.

2008-01-01

The aging of the population is a universal phenomenon with direct consequences upon the public health system. One of the main repercussions of the growth in this sector of the population is the increased prevalence of disorders such as dementia and depression which are very frequent among the elderly. The relationship between cardiovascular risk factors, dementia and depression have been addressed in many recent investigations. Objectives To evaluate the relationship of cognitive performance and depressive symptoms with cardiovascular risk in the elderly. Methods 94 high cardiovascular risk elderly patients and 160 healthy community elderly were evaluated cross-sectionally. The Mini Mental State Examination (MMSE) and the Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS-15) were used as the main measures. The cutoff for presence of depression was 6 on the GDS. Results The high cardiovascular risk elderly group showed significantly lower scores on the MMSE (p<0.001) and was significantly associated to depression (p<0.001), independently of education. The logistic regression analysis for depression as the dependent variable, age and group (healthy community or high cardiovascular risk elderly) were kept in the final equation. Higher age (Odds Ratio=0.92; 95% CI 0.86–0.98) and high cardiovascular risk elderly (OR=2.99; 95% CI 1.36–6.59) were associated to depression. Conclusions The present findings corroborate the different cognitive performance of elderly with high cardiovascular risk factors and the association of depressive symptoms with this group. PMID:29213588

Romanian experience in a assessment of the risk and environmental consequences due to radioactive materials transportation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vieru, Gheorghe

2006-01-01

Full text: The transport of radioactive materials (RAM) is a very important problem taking into consideration its potential risks over the environment and the radiological consequences of this activity. Romania as a Member State of the International Atomic Energy Agency has implemented national regulations for a safe transport of RAM in complying with the Agency's recommendations as well as other international specialized organizations. The paper will present the main sources of radioactive materials in Romania, and their transportation routes with a particular focus on the radioactive wastes (very low level and mixed low-level radioactive materials), radioactive isotopes and sources, and natural uranium ore. Starting from the fact that the safety in the transport of radioactive materials is dependent on packaging appropriate for the contents being shipped, rather than operational and/or administrative actions required for the package, the paper presents, very briefly, the qualification tests for the main packages used for transport and storage of RAM in Romania. There are presented also specific problems related to the identification and evaluation of the environmental risks and impacts as well as the potential radiological consequences associated with the transport of radioactive materials, for all those three possible situations: routine transport (without incidents), normal transport (with minor incidents) and during potential accidents. As a conclusion, it is stated that the evaluated annual collective dose for the population due to RAM transport is less than those received by natural radiation sources. At the same time it is concluded that Romanian made packages are safe and prevent loss of its radioactive contents into environment. (author)

Economic consequences of biological variation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Otto, Lars

2005-01-01

We present an economic decision support model, based on a Bayesian network, for Mycoplasma infection in slaughter swine production. The model describes the various risk factors for Mycoplasma infection and their interactions. This leads to a stochastic determination of the consequences of product...

Cancer Risk in Astronauts: A Constellation of Uncommon Consequences

Science.gov (United States)

Milder, Caitlin M.; Elgart, S. Robin; Chappell, Lori; Charvat, Jaqueline M.; Van Baalen, Mary; Huff, Janice L.; Semones, Edward J.

2017-01-01

Excess cancers resulting from external radiation exposures have been noted since the early 1950s, when a rise in leukemia rates was first reported in young atomic bomb survivors [1]. Further studies in atomic bomb survivors, cancer patients treated with radiotherapy, and nuclear power plant workers have confirmed that radiation exposure increases the risk of not only leukemia, but also a wide array of solid cancers [2,3]. NASA has long been aware of this risk and limits astronauts' risk of exposure-induced death (REID) from cancer by specifying permissible mission durations (PMD) for astronauts on an individual basis. While cancer is present among astronauts, current data does not suggest any excess of known radiation-induced cancers relative to a comparable population of U.S. adults; however, very uncommon cancers have been diagnosed in astronauts including nasopharyngeal cancer, lymphoma of the brain, and acral myxoinflammatory fibroblastic sarcoma. In order to study cancer risk in astronauts, a number of obstacles must be overcome. Firstly, several factors make the astronaut cohort considerably different from the cohorts that have previously been studied for effects resulting from radiation exposure. The high rate of accidents and the much healthier lifestyle of astronauts compared to the U.S. population make finding a suitable comparison population a problematic task. Space radiation differs substantially from terrestrial radiation exposures studied in the past; therefore, analyses of galactic cosmic radiation (GCR) in animal models must be conducted and correctly applied to the human experience. Secondly, a large enough population of exposed astronauts must exist in order to obtain the data necessary to see any potential statistically significant differences between the astronauts and the control population. Thirdly, confounders and effect modifiers, such as smoking, diet, and other space stressors, must be correctly identified and controlled for in those

Do markets encourage risk-seeking behaviour?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mengel, F.; Peeters, R.J.A.P.

2015-01-01

Excessive risk taking in markets can have devastating consequences as recent financial crises have high-lighted. In this paper we ask whether markets as an institution encourage such excessive risk taking. To establish causality, we isolate the effects of market interaction in a laboratory

PARTITION: A program for defining the source term/consequence analysis interface in the NUREG--1150 probabilistic risk assessments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Iman, R.L.; Helton, J.C.; Johnson, J.D.

1990-05-01

The individual plant analyses in the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's reassessment of the risk from commercial nuclear power plants (NUREG-1150) consist of four parts: systems analysis, accident progression analysis, source term analysis, and consequence analysis. Careful definition of the interfaces between these parts is necessary for both information flow and computational efficiency. This document has been designed for users of the PARTITION computer program developed by the authors at Sandia National Laboratories for defining the interface between the source term analysis (performed with the XXSOR programs) and the consequence analysis (performed with the MACCS program). This report provides a tutorial that details how the interactive partitioning is performed, along with detailed information on the partitioning process. The PARTITION program was written in ANSI standard FORTRAN 77 to make the code as machine-independent (i.e., portable) as possible. 9 refs., 4 figs

Evaluating Determinants of Environmental Risk Perception for Risk Management in Contaminated Sites

Science.gov (United States)

Janmaimool, Piyapong; Watanabe, Tsunemi

2014-01-01

Understanding the differences in the risk judgments of residents of industrial communities potentially provides insights into how to develop appropriate risk communication strategies. This study aimed to explore citizens’ fundamental understanding of risk-related judgments and to identify the factors contributing to perceived risks. An exploratory model was created to investigate the public’s risk judgments. In this model, the relationship between laypeople’s perceived risks and the factors related to the physical nature of risks (such as perceived probability of environmental contamination, probability of receiving impacts, and severity of catastrophic consequences) were examined by means of multiple regression analysis. Psychological factors, such as the ability to control the risks, concerns, experiences, and perceived benefits of industrial development were also included in the analysis. The Maptaphut industrial area in Rayong Province, Thailand was selected as a case study. A survey of 181 residents of communities experiencing different levels of hazardous gas contamination revealed rational risk judgments by inhabitants of high-risk and moderate-risk communities, based on their perceived probability of contamination, probability of receiving impacts, and perceived catastrophic consequences. However, risks assessed by people in low-risk communities could not be rationally explained and were influenced by their collective experiences. PMID:24937530

The high-risk plaque initiative

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Falk, Erling; Sillesen, Henrik; Muntendam, Pieter

2011-01-01

The High-Risk Plaque (HRP) Initiative is a research and development effort to advance the understanding, recognition, and management of asymptomatic individuals at risk for a near-term atherothrombotic event such as myocardial infarction or stroke. Clinical studies using the newest technologies...... have been initiated, including the BioImage Study in which novel approaches are tested in a typical health plan population. Asymptomatic at-risk individuals were enrolled, including a survey-only group (n = 865), a group undergoing traditional risk factor scoring (n = 718), and a group in which all...

Adverse Health Consequences of Performance-Enhancing Drugs: An Endocrine Society Scientific Statement

Science.gov (United States)

Pope, Harrison G.; Wood, Ruth I.; Rogol, Alan; Nyberg, Fred; Bowers, Larry

2014-01-01

Despite the high prevalence of performance-enhancing drug (PED) use, media attention has focused almost entirely on PED use by elite athletes to illicitly gain a competitive advantage in sports, and not on the health risks of PEDs. There is a widespread misperception that PED use is safe or that adverse effects are manageable. In reality, the vast majority of PED users are not athletes but rather nonathlete weightlifters, and the adverse health effects of PED use are greatly underappreciated. This scientific statement synthesizes available information on the medical consequences of PED use, identifies gaps in knowledge, and aims to focus the attention of the medical community and policymakers on PED use as an important public health problem. PED users frequently consume highly supraphysiologic doses of PEDs, combine them with other PEDs and/or other classical drugs of abuse, and display additional associated risk factors. PED use has been linked to an increased risk of death and a wide variety of cardiovascular, psychiatric, metabolic, endocrine, neurologic, infectious, hepatic, renal, and musculoskeletal disorders. Because randomized trials cannot ethically duplicate the large doses of PEDs and the many factors associated with PED use, we need observational studies to collect valid outcome data on the health risks associated with PEDs. In addition, we need studies regarding the prevalence of PED use, the mechanisms by which PEDs exert their adverse health effects, and the interactive effects of PEDs with sports injuries and other high-risk behaviors. We also need randomized trials to assess therapeutic interventions for treating the adverse effects of PEDs, such as the anabolic-androgen steroid withdrawal syndrome. Finally, we need to raise public awareness of the serious health consequences of PEDs. PMID:24423981

Anorexia of Aging: Risk Factors, Consequences, and Potential Treatments.

Science.gov (United States)

Landi, Francesco; Calvani, Riccardo; Tosato, Matteo; Martone, Anna Maria; Ortolani, Elena; Savera, Giulia; Sisto, Alex; Marzetti, Emanuele

2016-01-27

Older people frequently fail to ingest adequate amount of food to meet their essential energy and nutrient requirements. Anorexia of aging, defined by decrease in appetite and/or food intake in old age, is a major contributing factor to under-nutrition and adverse health outcomes in the geriatric population. This disorder is indeed highly prevalent and is recognized as an independent predictor of morbidity and mortality in different clinical settings. Even though anorexia is not an unavoidable consequence of aging, advancing age often promotes its development through various mechanisms. Age-related changes in life-style, disease conditions, as well as social and environmental factors have the potential to directly affect dietary behaviors and nutritional status. In spite of their importance, problems related to food intake and, more generally, nutritional status are seldom attended to in clinical practice. While this may be the result of an "ageist" approach, it should be acknowledged that simple interventions, such as oral nutritional supplementation or modified diets, could meaningfully improve the health status and quality of life of older persons.

Anorexia of Aging: Risk Factors, Consequences, and Potential Treatments

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Francesco Landi

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Older people frequently fail to ingest adequate amount of food to meet their essential energy and nutrient requirements. Anorexia of aging, defined by decrease in appetite and/or food intake in old age, is a major contributing factor to under-nutrition and adverse health outcomes in the geriatric population. This disorder is indeed highly prevalent and is recognized as an independent predictor of morbidity and mortality in different clinical settings. Even though anorexia is not an unavoidable consequence of aging, advancing age often promotes its development through various mechanisms. Age-related changes in life-style, disease conditions, as well as social and environmental factors have the potential to directly affect dietary behaviors and nutritional status. In spite of their importance, problems related to food intake and, more generally, nutritional status are seldom attended to in clinical practice. While this may be the result of an “ageist” approach, it should be acknowledged that simple interventions, such as oral nutritional supplementation or modified diets, could meaningfully improve the health status and quality of life of older persons.

Anorexia of Aging: Risk Factors, Consequences, and Potential Treatments

Science.gov (United States)

Landi, Francesco; Calvani, Riccardo; Tosato, Matteo; Martone, Anna Maria; Ortolani, Elena; Savera, Giulia; Sisto, Alex; Marzetti, Emanuele

2016-01-01

Older people frequently fail to ingest adequate amount of food to meet their essential energy and nutrient requirements. Anorexia of aging, defined by decrease in appetite and/or food intake in old age, is a major contributing factor to under-nutrition and adverse health outcomes in the geriatric population. This disorder is indeed highly prevalent and is recognized as an independent predictor of morbidity and mortality in different clinical settings. Even though anorexia is not an unavoidable consequence of aging, advancing age often promotes its development through various mechanisms. Age-related changes in life-style, disease conditions, as well as social and environmental factors have the potential to directly affect dietary behaviors and nutritional status. In spite of their importance, problems related to food intake and, more generally, nutritional status are seldom attended to in clinical practice. While this may be the result of an “ageist” approach, it should be acknowledged that simple interventions, such as oral nutritional supplementation or modified diets, could meaningfully improve the health status and quality of life of older persons. PMID:26828516

Victimization of patients with severe psychiatric disorders: prevalence, risk factors, protective factors and consequences for mental health. A longitudinal study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Van Rien

2010-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Victimization among people with a Severe Mental Illness is a common phenomenon. The objectives of this study proposal are: to delineate the extent and kind of victimization in a representative sample of chronic psychiatric patients; to contribute to the development and validation of a set of instruments registering victimization of psychiatric patients; to determine risk factors and protective factors; and to gain insight into the possible consequences of victimization. Methods/Design An extensive data set of 323 patients with Sever Mental Illness (assessed 4 years ago is used. In 2010 a second measurement will be performed, enabling longitudinal research on the predictors and consequences of victimization. Discussion The consequences of (revictimization have barely been subjected to analysis, partially due to the lack of a comprehensive, conceptual model for victimization. This research project will contribute significantly to the scientific development of the conceptual model of victimization in chronic psychiatric patients.

The effects of mental health symptoms and marijuana expectancies on marijuana use and consequences among at-risk adolescents

OpenAIRE

Pedersen, Eric R.; Miles, Jeremy N. V.; Osilla, Karen Chan; Ewing, Brett A.; Hunter, Sarah B.; D’Amico, Elizabeth J.

2014-01-01

Based on expectancy theory, adolescents at risk for mental health symptoms, such as those involved in the juvenile court system, may use marijuana due to the belief that use will attenuate anxiety and depressive symptoms. In a diverse sample of youth involved in the Santa Barbara Teen Court system (N = 193), we examined the association between mental health symptoms and marijuana expectancies on marijuana use and consequences. In general, stronger positive expectancies and weaker negative exp...

Systems engineering applied to integrated safety management for high consequence facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barter, R; Morais, B.

1998-01-01

Integrated Safety Management is a concept that is being actively promoted by the U.S. Department of Energy as a means of assuring safe operation of its facilities. The concept involves the integration of safety precepts into work planning rather than adjusting for safe operations after defining the work activity. The system engineering techniques used to design an integrated safety management system for a high consequence research facility are described. An example is given to show how the concepts evolved with the system design

Patients at High-Risk for Surgical Site Infection.

Science.gov (United States)

Mueck, Krislynn M; Kao, Lillian S

Surgical site infections (SSIs) are a significant healthcare quality issue, resulting in increased morbidity, disability, length of stay, resource utilization, and costs. Identification of high-risk patients may improve pre-operative counseling, inform resource utilization, and allow modifications in peri-operative management to optimize outcomes. Review of the pertinent English-language literature. High-risk surgical patients may be identified on the basis of individual risk factors or combinations of factors. In particular, statistical models and risk calculators may be useful in predicting infectious risks, both in general and for SSIs. These models differ in the number of variables; inclusion of pre-operative, intra-operative, or post-operative variables; ease of calculation; and specificity for particular procedures. Furthermore, the models differ in their accuracy in stratifying risk. Biomarkers may be a promising way to identify patients at high risk of infectious complications. Although multiple strategies exist for identifying surgical patients at high risk for SSIs, no one strategy is superior for all patients. Further efforts are necessary to determine if risk stratification in combination with risk modification can reduce SSIs in these patient populations.

Sun-protective behaviors in populations at high risk for skin cancer

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Diao DY

2013-12-01

Full Text Available Diana Y Diao,1 Tim K Lee1,21Department of Dermatology and Skin Science, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada; 2Cancer Control Research Program, BC Cancer Agency, Vancouver, British Columbia, CanadaAbstract: Over 3 million new cases of skin cancer are diagnosed in the US annually. Melanoma, a subtype of skin cancer that can be fatal if the disease is not detected and treated at an early stage, is the most common cancer for those aged 25–29 years and the second most common cancer in adolescents and young adults aged 15–29 years. The primary carcinogen for the genesis of skin cancers is ultraviolet light from solar radiation and tanning beds. In spite of massive health campaigns to raise public awareness on ultraviolet radiation, sun-protective practices still fall behind. A plausible explanation is the lack of behavioral change in the populations at risk; in this review article, we examine sun-protective behavior in the four high-risk skin cancer groups: skin cancer survivors, individuals with a family history of melanoma, individuals with physical characteristics associated with skin cancer risk, and organ transplantation patients. Findings in the literature demonstrate that increased knowledge and awareness does not consequently translate into behavioral changes in practice. Behavior can differ as a result of different attitudes and beliefs, depending on the population at risk. Thus, intervention should be tailored to the population targeted. A multidisciplinary health team providing consultation and education is required to influence these much needed changes.Keywords: skin cancer, melanoma, risk, prevention, behaviour

Chronic endocrine consequences of traumatic brain injury - what is the evidence?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Klose, Marianne; Feldt-Rasmussen, Ulla

2018-01-01

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is a major public health problem with potentially debilitating consequences for the individual. Hypopituitarism after TBI has received increasing attention over the past decade; development of the condition as a consequence of TBI was previously hardly mentioned...... in textbooks on the subject. Hypopituitarism has been reported in more than 25% of patients with TBI and is now thought to be one of the most important causes of treatable morbidity in TBI survivors. However, most clinicians dealing with neuroendocrine diseases and TBI generally do not see such a high...... incidence of hypopituitarism. This disproportion is not clearly explained, but recent data indicate that diagnostic testing, which is designed for high-risk populations and not for a cohort of patients with, for example, de novo isolated growth hormone deficiency (the predominant finding in TBI), might have...

Developing high-risk scenarios and countermeasure ideas for mitigation of hazardous materials incidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Russell, E.R. Sr.

1991-01-01

Kansas State University (KSU) conducted a comprehensive study of the development of a set of prioritized, extreme-risk scenarios, the development of a set of feasible, practical and implementable protective systems, and a report to summarize guidelines on the use of these protective systems to mitigate potential, extreme-risk situations that could occur during the transport of hazardous materials (Hazmat) on our highway system. This paper covers the methodology used to compete the first tow objectives with use of a state's panel. The research study was limited to materials (such as LNG, propane, gasoline, etc.) spilled within the highway system. It focused on potential risks which would result in severe, long-term, permanent, irreparable or catastrophic consequences, and existing technology and state-of-the-art knowledge for development of protective systems to mitigate these consequences. The protective systems within the scope of this study were systems constructed or physically incorporated into the highway system or modifications thereto

Prevalence, sleep characteristics, and comorbidities in a population at high risk for obstructive sleep apnea: A nationwide questionnaire study in South Korea.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jun-Sang Sunwoo

Full Text Available To determine the prevalence, sleep characteristics, and comorbidities associated with a high risk for obstructive sleep apnea (OSA in the Korean adult population.We analyzed data from 2,740 subjects who responded to a nationwide questionnaire survey of sleep characteristics. Those who qualified under two or more symptom categories of the Berlin questionnaire were defined as "at high risk for OSA". We investigated their socio-demographic information, sleep habits, and medical and psychiatric comorbidities. Logistic regression analyses were performed to identify factors and consequences significantly associated with a high risk for OSA.The prevalence of a high risk for OSA was 15.8% (95% confidence interval [CI] 14.5-17.2%. Multiple logistic regression analysis showed that old age (≥ 70 years, odds ratio [OR] 2.68 and body mass index ≥ 25 kg/m2 (OR 10.75 were significantly related with a high risk for OSA, whereas regular physical activity (OR 0.70 had a protective effect. Subjective sleep characteristics associated with a high risk for OSA were perceived insufficient sleep (OR 1.49, excessive daytime sleepiness (OR 1.88, and insomnia (OR 3.70. In addition, hypertension (OR 5.83, diabetes mellitus (OR 2.54, hyperlipidemia (OR 2.85, and anxiety (OR 1.63 were comorbid conditions independently associated with a high risk for OSA.This is the first study to demonstrate the prevalence of a high risk for OSA in a nationwide representative sample of the Korean adult population. These findings elucidate the epidemiology and clinical characteristics of those at high risk for OSA.

High resolution estimates of the corrosion risk for cultural heritage in Italy.

Science.gov (United States)

De Marco, Alessandra; Screpanti, Augusto; Mircea, Mihaela; Piersanti, Antonio; Proietti, Chiara; Fornasier, M Francesca

2017-07-01

Air pollution plays a pivotal role in the deterioration of many materials used in buildings and cultural monuments causing an inestimable damage. This study aims to estimate the impacts of air pollution (SO 2 , HNO 3 , O 3 , PM 10 ) and meteorological conditions (temperature, precipitation, relative humidity) on limestone, copper and bronze based on high resolution air quality data-base produced with AMS-MINNI modelling system over the Italian territory over the time period 2003-2010. A comparison between high resolution data (AMS-MINNI grid, 4 × 4 km) and low resolution data (EMEP grid, 50 × 50 km) has been performed. Our results pointed out that the corrosion levels for limestone, copper and bronze are decreased in Italy from 2003 to 2010 in relation to decrease of pollutant concentrations. However, some problem related to air pollution persists especially in Northern and Southern Italy. In particular, PM 10 and HNO 3 are considered the main responsible for limestone corrosion. Moreover, the high resolution data (AMS-MINNI) allowed the identification of risk areas that are not visible with the low resolution data (EMEP modelling system) in all considered years and, especially, in the limestone case. Consequently, high resolution air quality simulations are suitable to provide concrete benefits in providing information for national effective policy against corrosion risk for cultural heritage, also in the context of climate changes that are affecting strongly Mediterranean basin. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Environmental Degradation: Causes and Consequences

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Swati Tyagi

2014-08-01

Full Text Available The subject of environmental economics is at the forefront of the green debate: the environment can no longer be viewed as an entity separate from the economy. Environmental degradation is of many types and have many consequences. To address this challenge a number of studies have been conducted in both developing and developed countries applying different methods to capture health benefits from improved environmental quality. Minimizing exposure to environmental risk factors by enhancing air quality and access to improved sources of drinking and bathing water, sanitation and clean energy is found to be associated with significant health benefits and can contribute significantly to the achievement of the Millennium Development Goals of environmental sustainability, health and development. In this paper, I describe the national and global causes and consequences of environmental degradation and social injustice. This paper provides a review of the literature on studies associated with reduced environmental risk and in particular focusing on reduced air pollution, enhanced water quality and climate change mitigation.

Consequence Reasoning in Multilevel Flow Modelling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zhang, Xinxin; Lind, Morten; Ravn, Ole

2013-01-01

Consequence reasoning is a major element for operation support system to assess the plant situations. The purpose of this paper is to elaborate how Multilevel Flow Models can be used to reason about consequences of disturbances in complex engineering systems. MFM is a modelling methodology...... for representing process knowledge for complex systems. It represents the system by using means-end and part-whole decompositions, and describes not only the purposes and functions of the system but also the causal relations between them. Thus MFM is a tool for causal reasoning. The paper introduces MFM modelling...... syntax and gives detailed reasoning formulas for consequence reasoning. The reasoning formulas offers basis for developing rule-based system to perform consequence reasoning based on MFM, which can be used for alarm design, risk monitoring, and supervision and operation support system design....

TRECII: a computer program for transportation risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Franklin, A.L.

1980-05-01

A risk-based fault tree analysis method has been developed at the Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) for analysis of nuclear fuel cycle operations. This methodology was developed for the Department of Energy (DOE) as a risk analysis tool for evaluating high level waste management systems. A computer package consisting of three programs was written at that time to assist in the performance of risk assessment: ACORN (draws fault trees), MFAULT (analyzes fault trees), and RAFT (calculates risk). This methodology evaluates release consequences and estimates the frequency of occurrence of these consequences. This document describes an additional risk calculating code which can be used in conjunction with two of the three codes for transportation risk assessment. TRECII modifies the definition of risk used in RAFT (prob. x release) to accommodate release consequences in terms of fatalities. Throughout this report risk shall be defined as probability times consequences (fatalities are one possible health effect consequence). This methodology has been applied to a variety of energy material transportation systems. Typically the material shipped has been radioactive, although some adaptation to fossil fuels has occurred. The approach is normally applied to truck or train transport systems with some adaptation to pipelines and aircraft. TRECII is designed to be used primarily in conjunction with MFAULT; however, with a moderate amount of effort by the user, it can be implemented independent of the risk analysis package developed at PNL. Code description and user instructions necessary for the implementation of the TRECII program are provided

Psychological consequences caused by nuclear terrorism

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Peyankov, I.

2009-01-01

The psychological consequences caused by eventual nuclear terrorist act are believed to be some of the most: serious. in this article are presented the issues concerning psychological effects as psychological suffering, alteration of risk estimation, changes of individual and social behavior, etc. The most common psychological consequences as a result of the most popular large-scale nuclear accidents in Chernobyl, TMI (USA), Goiania (Brazil) are described. Some of the main factors, such as sex, age, health status, social status and etc, are analyzed. These factors determine the expression of psychological reactions provoked by nuclear accidents or eventual act of nuclear terrorism. In addition, the main precautions to cope with psychological consequences caused by nuclear terrorism are listed

Risk factors, incidence, consequences and prevention strategies for falls and fall-injury within older indigenous populations: a systematic review.

Science.gov (United States)

Lukaszyk, Caroline; Harvey, Lara; Sherrington, Cathie; Keay, Lisa; Tiedemann, Anne; Coombes, Julieann; Clemson, Lindy; Ivers, Rebecca

2016-12-01

To examine the risk factors, incidence, consequences and existing prevention strategies for falls and fall-related injury in older indigenous people. Relevant literature was identified through searching 14 electronic databases, a range of institutional websites, online search engines and government databases, using search terms pertaining to indigenous status, injury and ageing. Thirteen studies from Australia, the United States, Central America and Canada were identified. Few studies reported on fall rates but two reported that around 30% of indigenous people aged 45 years and above experienced at least one fall during the past year. The most common hospitalised fall injuries among older indigenous people were hip fracture and head injury. Risk factors significantly associated with falls within indigenous populations included poor mobility, a history of stroke, epilepsy, head injury, poor hearing and urinary incontinence. No formally evaluated, indigenous-specific fall prevention interventions were identified. Falls are a significant and growing health issue for older indigenous people worldwide that can lead to severe health consequences and even death. No fully-evaluated, indigenous-specific fall prevention programs were identified. Implications for Public Health: Research into fall patterns and fall-related injury among indigenous people is necessary for the development of appropriate fall prevention interventions. © 2016 Public Health Association of Australia.

Effectiveness of Methadone in Reduction of High Risk Behaviors in Clients of MMT Center

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

F Ehsani

2010-09-01

Full Text Available Introduction: Addiction as a social, health problem with its specific complications threatens societies. High risk behaviors such as violence, self mutilation, tattooing, shared injections and unprotected sex behaviors are some of the problems in addicts that need to be treated. One of these treatments is methadone therapy. The purpose of this study was to evaluate effectiveness of methadone in prevention or reduction of high risk behaviors in clients of a MMT center of Shaheed Sadoughi University of medical sciences of Yazd. Methods: This study was done on 93 clients of a MMT center.Questionnaire for this study included items from MAP and questions about some other risky behaviors. This questionnaire was completed at onset of treatment and 6 months after. Data was analyzed with SPSS software program Results: 89.2% of participants were married and 10.8% were single. 63.5% of them were in the20-40 years age group. Most commonly abused substances were heroin and opium. Before onset of treatment, 37.6% of participants had history of imprisonment, 35.5% had shared injections, 32.3%had had unprotected sex, 22.6%had tattooing and 5.4%had mutilated their own selves. Only 36.6% didn’t have any high risk behavior. These behaviors were more common in heroin users and in the20-40 years age group. After onset of treatment and during 6 month of MMT, 86% of clients didn’t have any risky behavior. Only 14%of them continued to have unsafe sex behaviors Conclusion: Addiction can cause high risk behaviors. Data in this paper suggests that young age, heroin use, low education level and no or inadequate information about addictive substances and their consequences are effective and important factors that cause high risk behaviors. Treatment of addicts with methadone maintenance therapy plays an important role in reduction of risky behaviors. Development of appropriate and more MMT centers are recommended.

The relationship between default mode network connectivity and social functioning in individuals at familial high-risk for schizophrenia

OpenAIRE

Dodell-Feder, David; DeLisi, Lynn E.; Hooker, Christine I.

2014-01-01

Unaffected first-degree relatives of individuals with schizophrenia (i.e., those at familial high-risk [FHR]), demonstrate social dysfunction qualitatively similar though less severe than that of their affected relatives. These social difficulties may be the consequence of genetically conferred disruption to aspects of the default mode network (DMN), such as the dMPFC subsystem, which overlaps with the network of brain regions recruited during social cognitive processes. In the present study,...

Rock slope instabilities in Norway: First systematic hazard and risk classification of 22 unstable rock slopes

Science.gov (United States)

Böhme, Martina; Hermanns, Reginald L.; Oppikofer, Thierry; Penna, Ivanna

2016-04-01

Unstable rock slopes that can cause large failures of the rock-avalanche type have been mapped in Norway for almost two decades. Four sites have earlier been characterized as high-risk objects based on expertise of few researchers. This resulted in installing continuous monitoring systems and set-up of an early-warning system for those four sites. Other unstable rock slopes have not been ranked related to their hazard or risk. There are ca. 300 other sites known of which 70 sites were installed for periodic deformation measurements using multiple techniques (Global Navigation Satellite Systems, extensometers, measurement bolts, and others). In 2012 a systematic hazard and risk classification system for unstable rock slopes was established in Norway and the mapping approach adapted to that in 2013. Now, the first 22 sites were classified for hazard, consequences and risk using this classification system. The selection of the first group of sites to be classified was based on an assumed high hazard or risk and importance given to the sites by Norwegian media and the public. Nine of the classified 22 unstable rock slopes are large sites that deform inhomogeneously or are strongly broken up in individual blocks. This suggests that different failure scenarios are possible that need to be analyzed individually. A total of 35 failure scenarios for those nine unstable rock slopes were considered. The hazard analyses were based on 9 geological parameters defined in the classification system. The classification system will be presented based on the Gamanjunni unstable rock slope. This slope has a well developed back scarp that exposes 150 m preceding displacement. The lateral limits of the unstable slope are clearly visible in the morphology and InSAR displacement data. There have been no single structures observed that allow sliding kinematically. The lower extend of the displacing rock mass is clearly defined in InSAR data and by a zone of higher rock fall activity. Yearly

Enhanced leak detection risk model development

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Harron, Lorna; Barlow, Rick; Farquhar, Ted [Enbridge Pipelines Inc., Edmonton, Alberta (Canada)

2010-07-01

Increasing concerns and attention to pipeline safety have engaged pipeline companies and regulatory agencies to extend their approaches to pipeline integrity. The implementation of High Consequence Areas (HCAs) has especially had an impact on the development of integrity management protocols (IMPs) for pipelines. These IMPs can require that a risk based assessment of integrity issues be applied to specific HCA risk factors. This paper addresses the development of an operational risk assessment approach for pipeline leak detection requirements for HCAs. A detailed risk assessment algorithm that includes 25 risk variables and 28 consequence variables was developed for application to all HCA areas. This paper describes the consultative process that was used to workshop the development of this algorithm. Included in this description is how the process addressed various methods of leak detection across a wide variety of pipelines. The paper also looks at development challenges and future steps in applying operation risk assessment techniques to mainline leak detection risk management.

Drink driving - Why risk the consequences?

CERN Multimedia

2004-01-01

In the second of the series of articles about alcohol, CERN is highlighting the dangers of drinking and driving. Have you ever driven after drinking alcohol? If you did, then you were more likely to be involved in an accident that could kill or injure yourself or other people. Why risk it? Any alcohol can impair driving ability. The risk of being in an accident rises significantly after alcohol is consumed: at the French legal limit of 0.5 grams of alcohol per litre of blood, a driver is twice as likely to have an accident as someone who has had no alcohol. At the Swiss legal limit of 0.8 g/l, a driver is five times more likely to be involved in an accident. Many EU countries share the French limit. Penalties for breaking the law vary depending on the severity of the offence, but they include disqualification, fines and imprisonment. Drink Drive Limits and Penalties in the European Union Country Limit g/l Prison Sentence (maximum) Austria 0,5 up to 3 months / 3 years (if fatal) Belgiu...

Unintended Consequences of Wearable Sensor Use in Healthcare

Science.gov (United States)

McCaldin, D.; Wang, K.; Schreier, G.; Lovell, N. H.; Marschollek, M.; Redmond, S. J.

2016-01-01

Summary Objectives As wearable sensors take the consumer market by storm, and medical device manufacturers move to make their devices wireless and appropriate for ambulatory use, this revolution brings with it some unintended consequences, which we aim to discuss in this paper. Methods We discuss some important unintended consequences, both beneficial and unwanted, which relate to: modifications of behavior; creation and use of big data sets; new security vulnerabilities; and unforeseen challenges faced by regulatory authorities, struggling to keep pace with recent innovations. Where possible, we proposed potential solutions to unwanted consequences. Results Intelligent and inclusive design processes may mitigate unintended modifications in behavior. For big data, legislating access to and use of these data will be a legal and political challenge in the years ahead, as we trade the health benefits of wearable sensors against the risk to our privacy. The wireless and personal nature of wearable sensors also exposes them to a number of unique security vulnerabilities. Regulation plays an important role in managing these security risks, but also has the dual responsibility of ensuring that wearable devices are fit for purpose. However, the burden of validating the function and security of medical devices is becoming infeasible for regulators, given the many software apps and wearable sensors entering the market each year, which are only a subset of an even larger ‘internet of things’. Conclusion Wearable sensors may serve to improve wellbeing, but we must be vigilant against the occurrence of unintended consequences. With collaboration between device manufacturers, regulators, and end-users, we balance the risk of unintended consequences occurring against the incredible benefit that wearable sensors promise to bring to the world. PMID:27830234

Affect-Laden Imagery and Risk Taking: The Mediating Role of Stress and Risk Perception

Science.gov (United States)

2015-01-01

This paper investigates how affect-laden imagery that evokes emotional stress influences risk perception and risk taking in real-life scenarios. In a series of three studies, we instructed participants to imagine the consequences of risky scenarios and then rate the intensity of the experienced stress, perceived risk and their willingness to engage in risky behavior. Study 1 showed that people spontaneously imagine negative rather than positive risk consequences, which are directly related to their lower willingness to take risk. Moreover, this relationship was mediated by feelings of stress and risk perception. Study 2 replicated and extended these findings by showing that imagining negative risk consequences evokes psychophysiological stress responses observed in elevated blood pressure. Finally, in Study 3, we once again demonstrated that a higher intensity of mental images of negative risk consequences, as measured by enhanced brain activity in the parieto-occipital lobes, leads to a lower propensity to take risk. Furthermore, individual differences in creating vivid and intense negative images of risk consequences moderated the strength of the relationship between risk perception and risk taking. Participants who created more vivid and intense images of negative risk consequences paid less attention to the assessments of riskiness in rating their likelihood to take risk. To summarize, we showed that feelings of emotional stress and perceived riskiness mediate the relationship between mental imagery and risk taking, whereas individual differences in abilities to create vivid mental images may influence the degree to which more cognitive risk assessments are used in the risk-taking process. PMID:25816238

Developmental Cognitive Neuroscience of Adolescent Sexual Risk and Alcohol Use

Science.gov (United States)

Ryman, Sephira G.; Gillman, Arielle S.; Weiland, Barbara J.; Thayer, Rachel E.; Bryan, Angela D.

2018-01-01

Human adolescents engage in very high rates of unprotected sex. This behavior has a high potential for unintended, serious, and sustained health consequences including HIV/AIDS. Despite these serious health consequences, we know little about the neural and cognitive factors that influence adolescents’ decision-making around sex, and their potential overlap with behaviorally co-occurring risk behaviors, including alcohol use. Thus, in this review, we evaluate the developmental neuroscience of sexual risk and alcohol use for human adolescents with an eye to relevant prevention and intervention implications. PMID:26290051

[Targeting high-risk drugs to optimize clinical pharmacists' intervention].

Science.gov (United States)

Mouterde, Anne-Laure; Bourdelin, Magali; Maison, Ophélie; Coursier, Sandra; Bontemps, Hervé

2016-12-01

By the Order of 6 April 2011, the pharmacist must validate all the prescriptions containing "high-risk drugs" or those of "patients at risk". To optimize this clinical pharmacy activity, we identified high-risk drugs. A list of high-risk drugs has been established using literature, pharmacists' interventions (PI) performed in our hospital and a survey sent to hospital pharmacists. In a prospective study (analysis of 100 prescriptions for each high-risk drug selected), we have identified the most relevant to target. We obtained a statistically significant PI rate (P<0.05) for digoxin, oral anticoagulants direct, oral methotrexate and colchicine. This method of targeted pharmaceutical validation based on high-risk drugs is relevant to detect patients with high risk of medicine-related illness. Copyright © 2016 Société française de pharmacologie et de thérapeutique. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

An Embedded System for Safe, Secure and Reliable Execution of High Consequence Software

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

MCCOY,JAMES A.

2000-08-29

As more complex and functionally diverse requirements are placed on high consequence embedded applications, ensuring safe and secure operation requires an execution environment that is ultra reliable from a system viewpoint. In many cases the safety and security of the system depends upon the reliable cooperation between the hardware and the software to meet real-time system throughput requirements. The selection of a microprocessor and its associated development environment for an embedded application has the most far-reaching effects on the development and production of the system than any other element in the design. The effects of this choice ripple through the remainder of the hardware design and profoundly affect the entire software development process. While state-of-the-art software engineering principles indicate that an object oriented (OO) methodology provides a superior development environment, traditional programming languages available for microprocessors targeted for deeply embedded applications do not directly support OO techniques. Furthermore, the microprocessors themselves do not typically support nor do they enforce an OO environment. This paper describes a system level approach for the design of a microprocessor intended for use in deeply embedded high consequence applications that both supports and enforces an OO execution environment.

[(Domestic) violence against women: socioeconomic consequences and societal costs. Introduction and overview].

Science.gov (United States)

Brzank, P

2009-03-01

Due to prevalence as well as serious health and social impacts, domestic violence against women is considered a problem of high relevance for victims themselves and for the society as a whole. Empirical data also prove this correlation for Germany. Nevertheless the extensive implications and their interdependency have hardly been examined. In this article, a definition of domestic violence is given followed by a brief introduction of the problem. Next an overview of the results from national and international surveys regarding the social consequences and the economic costs of domestic violence is presented. The burden for following generations becomes obvious, including the consequences for family and social relationship structures, for victims' occupational situations, productivity loss, high risk for poverty, homelessness and the interdependencies on health status. Estimations from international studies on the societal costs illustrate the economic dimension.

Efficiency or equity? Simulating the impact of high-risk and population intervention strategies for the prevention of disease

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jonathan M. Platt

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Maximizing both efficiency and equity are core considerations for population health. These considerations can result in tension in population health science as we seek to improve overall population health while achieving equitable health distributions within populations. Limited work has explored empirically the consequences of different population health intervention strategies on the burden of disease and on within- and between-group differences in disease. To address this gap, we compared the impact of four simulated interventions using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. In particular, we focus on assessing how population and high-risk primary prevention and population and high-risk secondary interventions efforts to reduce smoking behavior influence systolic blood pressure (SBP and hypertension, and how such strategies influence inequalities in SBP by income. The greatest reductions in SBP mean and standard deviation resulted from the population secondary prevention. High-risk primary and secondary prevention and population secondary prevention programs all yielded substantial reductions in hypertension prevalence. The effect of population primary prevention did little to decrease population SBP mean and standard deviation, as well as hypertension prevalence. Both high-risk strategies had a larger impact in the low-income population, leading to the greatest narrowing the income-related gap in disease. The population prevention strategies had a larger impact in the high-income population. Population health approaches must consider the potential impact on both the whole population and also on those with different levels of risk for disease within a population, including those in under-represented or under-served groups.

A consequence index approach to identifying radiological sabotage targets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Altman, W.D.; Hockert, J.W.

1988-01-01

One of the threats to concern to facilities using significant quantities of radioactive material is radiological sabotage. Both the Department of Energy (DOE) and the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission have issued guidance to facilities for radiological sabotage protection. At those facilities where the inventories of radioactive materials change frequently, there is an operational need for a technically defensible method of determining whether or not the inventory of radioactive material at a given facility poses a potential radiological sabotage risk. In order to determine quickly whether a building is a potential radiological sabotage target, Lawrence Livermore National Loaboratory (LLNL) has developed a radiological sabotage consequence index that provides a conservative estimate of the maximum potential off-site consequences of a radiological sabotage attempt involving the facility. This radiological sabotage consequence index can be used by safeguards and security staff to rapidly determine whether a change in building operations poses a potential radiological sabotage risk. In those cases where such a potential risk is identified, a more detailed radiological sabotage vulnerability analysis can be performed

Case studies of the perceptions of women with high risk congenital heart disease successfully completing a pregnancy.

Science.gov (United States)

Ngu, Kylie; Hay, Margaret; Menahem, Samuel

2014-09-01

Women even with moderate to severe congenital heart disease (CHD) seek motherhood despite posing significant health risks to themselves and their infant. This study explored their motivations and perceptions and compared them to those of women with low risk CHD who conceived. Twenty women over 18 years with CHD who had a successful pregnancy were recruited, half of whom were identified as having a high risk cardiac abnormality. They completed a questionnaire and a semi-structured interview following which a thematic analysis was employed. Their medical records and clinical status were also reviewed and their current cardiac status graded by their attending cardiologist. Women with high risk (moderate to severe) CHD (n=10) appeared to have similar motivations for conceiving as women with low-risk (mild) CHD (n=10). Their decision to conceive seemed based on their own and at times unrealistic perceptions of the consequences of their CHD. Women with mild or more severe CHD had similar motivations to conceive tending to down play the seriousness of their CHD. Their drive for motherhood appeared to be stronger than the drive for self care. It behoves clinicians, both obstetricians and cardiologists caring for women with high risk CHD to be knowledgeable of the effects of the CHD on the pregnancy and the impact of the pregnancy on the cardiac status. Copyright © 2014 Australian and New Zealand Society of Cardiac and Thoracic Surgeons (ANZSCTS) and the Cardiac Society of Australia and New Zealand (CSANZ). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Review Sexual coercion and adolescent risk behaviour: a ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Sexual coercion affects the individual through multiple short- and long-term medical, emotional, psychological and social consequences, and adolescents are particularly at high risk. Sexual coercion is hypothesised to negatively affect adolescents' decision-making around their sexual behaviours and other risk behaviours.

New information on high risk breast screening

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Riedl, C.C.; Ponhold, L.; Gruber, R.; Pinker, K.; Helbich, T.H.

2010-01-01

Women with an elevated risk for breast cancer require intensified screening beginning at an early age. Such high risk screening differs considerably from screening in the general population. After an expert has evaluated the exact risk a breast MRI examination should be offered at least once a year and beginning latest at the age of 30 depending on the patients risk category. Complementary mammograms should not be performed before the age of 35. An additional ultrasound examination is no longer recommended. To ensure a high sensitivity and specificity high risk screening should be performed only at a nationally or regionally approved and audited service. Adequate knowledge about the phenotypical characteristics of familial breast cancer is essential. Besides the common malignant phenotypes, benign morphologies (round or oval shape and smooth margins) as well as a low prevalence of calcifications have been described. Using MRI benign contrast media kinetics as well as non-solid lesions with focal, regional and segmental enhancement can often be visualized. (orig.) [de

Cyber Risk Management for Critical Infrastructure: A Risk Analysis Model and Three Case Studies.

Science.gov (United States)

Paté-Cornell, M-Elisabeth; Kuypers, Marshall; Smith, Matthew; Keller, Philip

2018-02-01

Managing cyber security in an organization involves allocating the protection budget across a spectrum of possible options. This requires assessing the benefits and the costs of these options. The risk analyses presented here are statistical when relevant data are available, and system-based for high-consequence events that have not happened yet. This article presents, first, a general probabilistic risk analysis framework for cyber security in an organization to be specified. It then describes three examples of forward-looking analyses motivated by recent cyber attacks. The first one is the statistical analysis of an actual database, extended at the upper end of the loss distribution by a Bayesian analysis of possible, high-consequence attack scenarios that may happen in the future. The second is a systems analysis of cyber risks for a smart, connected electric grid, showing that there is an optimal level of connectivity. The third is an analysis of sequential decisions to upgrade the software of an existing cyber security system or to adopt a new one to stay ahead of adversaries trying to find their way in. The results are distributions of losses to cyber attacks, with and without some considered countermeasures in support of risk management decisions based both on past data and anticipated incidents. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

High-Risk and Low-Risk Human Papillomavirus and the Absolute Risk of Cervical Intraepithelial Neoplasia or Cancer

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Thomsen, Louise T; Frederiksen, Kirsten; Munk, Christian

2014-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To determine the absolute risk of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) grade 3 or cervical cancer (CIN 3 or worse) after detection of low-risk human papillomavirus (HPV) and after a negative high-risk HPV test. METHODS: In this prospective cohort study, consecutive liquid......-based cervical cytology samples were collected from women screened for cervical cancer in Copenhagen, Denmark, during 2002-2005. Samples were tested with a clinical test for 13 high-risk and five low-risk HPV types. The cohort (N=35,539; aged 14-90 years) was monitored in a nationwide pathology register for up...... cytology. Detection of low-risk HPV does not predict CIN 3 or worse. Cervical cancer screening should not include testing for low-risk HPV types. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: II....

A New Approach in the Design of High-Risk Infusion Technology

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Robert Murphy

2010-01-01

Full Text Available The syringe infusion pump has been established as the instrument of choice for high-risk infusions, where potent drugs are often delivered at low rates of flow. However, numerous instances of unexpected flow error with consequent patient physiological impact have been reported. These include unwanted bolus delivery on release of line occlusion, dosage fluctuation due to pump height change and fluid reflux within the multiple pump installations now common in the Intensive Care Unit (ICU. This article examines the performance of a typical ICU syringe infusion pump and identifies mechanical compliance, inherent in commercial designs, as a source of flow error that should not be ignored by equipment designers. A prototype low compliance system is described and tested with performance compared to the conventional design, demonstrating advantages in terms of lower flow error.

RISKIND: A computer program for calculating radiological consequences and health risks from transportation of spent nuclear fuel

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yuan, Y.C. [Square Y, Orchard Park, NY (United States); Chen, S.Y.; LePoire, D.J. [Argonne National Lab., IL (United States). Environmental Assessment and Information Sciences Div.; Rothman, R. [USDOE Idaho Field Office, Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

1993-02-01

This report presents the technical details of RISIUND, a computer code designed to estimate potential radiological consequences and health risks to individuals and the collective population from exposures associated with the transportation of spent nuclear fuel. RISKIND is a user-friendly, semiinteractive program that can be run on an IBM or equivalent personal computer. The program language is FORTRAN-77. Several models are included in RISKIND that have been tailored to calculate the exposure to individuals under various incident-free and accident conditions. The incidentfree models assess exposures from both gamma and neutron radiation and can account for different cask designs. The accident models include accidental release, atmospheric transport, and the environmental pathways of radionuclides from spent fuels; these models also assess health risks to individuals and the collective population. The models are supported by databases that are specific to spent nuclear fuels and include a radionudide inventory and dose conversion factors.

RISKIND: A computer program for calculating radiological consequences and health risks from transportation of spent nuclear fuel

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yuan, Y.C.; Chen, S.Y.; LePoire, D.J.

1993-02-01

This report presents the technical details of RISIUND, a computer code designed to estimate potential radiological consequences and health risks to individuals and the collective population from exposures associated with the transportation of spent nuclear fuel. RISKIND is a user-friendly, semiinteractive program that can be run on an IBM or equivalent personal computer. The program language is FORTRAN-77. Several models are included in RISKIND that have been tailored to calculate the exposure to individuals under various incident-free and accident conditions. The incidentfree models assess exposures from both gamma and neutron radiation and can account for different cask designs. The accident models include accidental release, atmospheric transport, and the environmental pathways of radionuclides from spent fuels; these models also assess health risks to individuals and the collective population. The models are supported by databases that are specific to spent nuclear fuels and include a radionudide inventory and dose conversion factors

High-risk PCI: how to define it today?

Science.gov (United States)

DE Marzo, Vincenzo; D'Amario, Domenico; Galli, Mattia; Vergallo, Rocco; Porto, Italo

2018-04-11

Before the percutaneous spread, the mortality rate of patients with coronary heart disease not suitable for cardiac surgery was markedly high. This limit has been progressively exceeded with the advent of minimally invasive approaches, which, although was initially intended exclusively for low risk patients, was then employed in complex patients often too compromised to undergo cardiac surgery. Given to the rising of high-risk population, due to an increase of patients with multiple chronic conditions linked to the best care offered, we are witnessing an expansion of the high-risk percutaneous coronary interventions (PCI) population. Despite defining what high-risk is remains still unclear, all proposed definitions of high-risk PCI combine features related to three clinical areas: 1) patient risk factors and comorbidities (incorporating those which preclude surgical or percutaneous revascularization such as diabetes, COPD, CKD, lung disease, frailty, advanced age); 2) location of the disease and complexity of coronary anatomy (including multi-vessel disease, left main disease, CTO, bifurcations); 3) hemodynamic clinical status (ventricular dysfunction, concomitant valvular disease or unstable characteristics). Since cardiologists have ascertained the encouraging results in terms of efficacy and rewards compared to the low-risks patients, the important role of treating high-risk patients is becoming more and more relevant to the point that current guidelines have now changed the appropriateness of percutaneous interventions indications. Considering the complexity in managing higher-risk patients with coronary artery disease, the next step to ensure the best care for this type of patients is to create a team-based model of cooperation in order to properly establish the right treatment for the right patient.

Fuzzy risk matrix

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Markowski, Adam S.; Mannan, M. Sam

2008-01-01

A risk matrix is a mechanism to characterize and rank process risks that are typically identified through one or more multifunctional reviews (e.g., process hazard analysis, audits, or incident investigation). This paper describes a procedure for developing a fuzzy risk matrix that may be used for emerging fuzzy logic applications in different safety analyses (e.g., LOPA). The fuzzification of frequency and severity of the consequences of the incident scenario are described which are basic inputs for fuzzy risk matrix. Subsequently using different design of risk matrix, fuzzy rules are established enabling the development of fuzzy risk matrices. Three types of fuzzy risk matrix have been developed (low-cost, standard, and high-cost), and using a distillation column case study, the effect of the design on final defuzzified risk index is demonstrated

Kidney graft recipients with pretransplantation HLA CLASS I antibodies and high soluble CD30 are at high risk for graft loss.

Science.gov (United States)

Rodríguez, Libia M; París, Sara C; Arbeláez, Mario; Cotes, José M; Süsal, Caner; Torres, Yolanda; García, Luís F

2007-08-01

In the present study, we investigated whether pretransplantation HLA class I and class II antibodies and pretransplantation levels of soluble CD30 (sCD30) and IgA anti-Fab autoantibodies are predictive of kidney allograft survival. Pretransplantation sera of 504 deceased-donor kidney recipients were tested for IgG HLA class I and class II antibodies, sCD30, and IgA anti-Fab levels using the CTS 4 ELISA kit. Kidney graft survival was estimated by Kaplan-Meier method and multivariate Cox regression. Regardless of the presence of HLA class II antibodies, recipients with high HLA class I reactivity had lower 1-year graft survival than recipients with low reactivity (p sCD30 had lower 5-year graft survival rate than those with low sCD30 (p sCD30 effect was observed in presensitized and nonsensitized recipients, demonstrated a synergistic effect with HLA class I antibodies (p kidney graft survival. Our results indicate that high pretransplantation sCD30 levels and HLA class I positivity increase the risk of kidney graft loss regardless of other factors. Consequently, such determinations should be routinely performed to estimate recipients' risks of graft rejection before transplantation.

The skeletal consequences of thyrotoxicosis.

Science.gov (United States)

Nicholls, Jonathan J; Brassill, Mary Jane; Williams, Graham R; Bassett, J H Duncan

2012-06-01

Euthyroid status is essential for normal skeletal development and the maintenance of adult bone structure and strength. Established thyrotoxicosis has long been recognised as a cause of high bone turnover osteoporosis and fracture but more recent studies have suggested that subclinical hyperthyroidism and long-term suppressive doses of thyroxine (T4) may also result in decreased bone mineral density (BMD) and an increased risk of fragility fracture, particularly in postmenopausal women. Furthermore, large population studies of euthyroid individuals have demonstrated that a hypothalamic-pituitary-thyroid axis set point at the upper end of the normal reference range is associated with reduced BMD and increased fracture susceptibility. Despite these findings, the cellular and molecular mechanisms of thyroid hormone action in bone remain controversial and incompletely understood. In this review, we discuss the role of thyroid hormones in bone and the skeletal consequences of hyperthyroidism.

Drinking Water Consequences Tools. A Literature Review

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pasqualini, Donatella [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

2016-05-12

In support of the goals of Department of Homeland Security’s (DHS) National Protection and Programs Directorate and the Federal Emergency Management Agency, the DHS Office of Science and Technology is seeking to develop and/or modify consequence assessment tools to enable drinking water systems owner/operators to estimate the societal and economic consequences of drinking water disruption due to the threats and hazards. This work will expand the breadth of consequence estimation methods and tools using the best-available data describing water distribution infrastructure, owner/assetlevel economic losses, regional-scale economic activity, and health. In addition, this project will deploy the consequence methodology and capability within a Web-based platform. This report is intended to support DHS effort providing a review literature review of existing assessment tools of water and wastewater systems consequences to disruptions. The review includes tools that assess water systems resilience, vulnerability, and risk. This will help to understand gaps and limitations of these tools in order to plan for the development of the next-generation consequences tool for water and waste water systems disruption.

Evaluation of methods to compare consequences from hazardous materials transportation accidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rhoads, R.E.; Franklin, A.L.; Lavender, J.C.

1986-10-01

This report presents the results of a project to develop a framework for making meaningful comparisons of the consequences from transportation accidents involving hazardous materials. The project was conducted in two phases. In Phase I, methods that could potentially be used to develop the consequence comparisons for hazardous material transportation accidents were identified and reviewed. Potential improvements were identified and an evaluation of the improved methods was performed. Based on this evaluation, several methods were selected for detailed evaluation in Phase II of the project. The methods selected were location-dependent scenarios, figure of merit and risk assessment. This evaluation included application of the methods to a sample problem which compares the consequences of four representative hazardous materials - chlorine, propane, spent nuclear fuel and class A explosives. These materials were selected because they represented a broad class of hazardous material properties and consequence mechanisms. The sample case aplication relied extensively on consequence calculations performed in previous transportation risk assessment studies. A consultant was employed to assist in developing consequence models for explosives. The results of the detailed evaluation of the three consequence comparison methods indicates that methods are available to perform technically defensible comparisons of the consequences from a wide variety of hazardous materials. Location-dependent scenario and risk assessment methods are available now and the figure of merit method could be developed with additional effort. All of the methods require substantial effort to implement. Methods that would require substantially less effort were identified in the preliminary evaluation, but questions of technical accuracy preclude their application on a scale. These methods may have application to specific cases, however

Trajectories of depressive symptoms among high risk African-American adolescents.

Science.gov (United States)

Repetto, Paula B; Caldwell, Cleopatra H; Zimmerman, Marc A

2004-12-01

To examine the trajectories of depressive symptoms among African-American youth and the psychosocial factors associated with these trajectories. The sample included 579 African-American adolescents who were at risk of dropping out of school, interviewed annually starting from ninth grade for 4 years. The measures included depressive symptoms, anxiety symptoms, self-esteem, stress, and active coping; all self-reported. We used cluster analysis to develop longitudinal trajectories of depression in our sample. Four different trajectories of depressive symptoms were found that represented the changes in depressive symptoms among the participants. These trajectories are: consistently high (15.9%), consistently low (21.1%), decreasing (41.8%), and increasing (21.2%) depressive symptoms. The results from the comparisons of the trajectories indicated that adolescents who presented consistently high levels of depressive symptoms were more likely to be female, reported more anxiety symptoms, lower self-esteem, higher stress, and lower grade point average (GPA) compared with adolescent members of the other trajectories. Depressive symptoms may be manifested in different ways according to the patterns of change. Different correlates are associated with these trajectories of depressive symptoms and provide insights about the antecedents and consequences of the patterns of change in depressive symptoms.

The blues broaden, but the nasty narrows: attentional consequences of negative affects low and high in motivational intensity.

Science.gov (United States)

Gable, Philip; Harmon-Jones, Eddie

2010-02-01

Positive and negative affects high in motivational intensity cause a narrowing of attentional focus. In contrast, positive affects low in motivational intensity cause a broadening of attentional focus. The attentional consequences of negative affects low in motivational intensity have not been experimentally investigated. Experiment 1 compared the attentional consequences of negative affect low in motivational intensity (sadness) relative to a neutral affective state. Results indicated that low-motivation negative affect caused attentional broadening. Experiment 2 found that disgust, a high-motivation negative affect not previously investigated in attentional studies, narrowed attentional focus. These experiments support the conceptual model linking high-motivation affective states to narrowed attention and low-motivation affective states to broadened attention.

Renal transplantation in high cardiovascular risk patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Bittar, Julio; Arenas, Paula; Chiurchiu, Carlos; de la Fuente, Jorge; de Arteaga, Javier; Douthat, Walter; Massari, Pablo U

2009-10-01

Current transplant success allows recipients with previous contraindications to transplant to have access to this procedure with more frequency and safety. The concept of high-risk patient has changed since the first stages of transplantation. In the first studies, the high-risk concept was based on probability of early graft failure or on a patient's clinical condition to cope with high perioperatory morbimortality. Later on, this concept implied immunological factors that were crucial to ensure transplant success because hypersensitized or polytransfused patients experienced a higher risk of acute rejection and subsequent graft loss. Afterward, the presence of various comorbidities would redefine the high-risk concept for renal transplant mainly considering recipient's clinical aspects. Currently, the change in epidemiological characteristics of patients starting dialysis causes that we now deal with a greater increase of elderly patients, diabetic patients, and patients with history of cardiovascular disease. Today, high-risk patients are those with clinical features that predict an increase in the risk of perioperative morbimortality or death with functioning graft. In this review, we will attempted to analyze currents results of renal transplant outcomes in terms of patients and graft survival in elderly patients, diabetic patients, and patients with previous cardiovascular disease from the most recent experiences in the literature and from experiences in our center. In any of the groups previously analyzed, survival offered by renal transplant is significantly higher compared to dialysis. Besides, these patients are the recipient group that benefit the most with the transplant because their mortality while remaining on dialysis is extremely high. Hence, renal transplantation should be offered more frequently to older patients, diabetic patients, and patients with pretransplant cardiac and peripheral vascular disease. A positive attitude toward renal

ANALYSIS OF ECONOMIC RISK IN EUROPEAN INVESTMENT PROJECTS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Margareta Stela FLORESCU

2012-06-01

Full Text Available Risk is a reality of the economic environment, with consequences which cannot always be foreseen or anticipated. Risk management becomes more stringent as potential exo/endogenous vulnerability factors are rapidly increasing. Identifying risk areas, structuring risk factors and defining their probability, optimal management of resources in order to reduce risk factors, creating alternatives for each high-probability risk factor are part of project risk management. Risk is quantified through probability and incidence and is assessed using quantitative and qualitative methods.

The renal consequences of maternal obesity in offspring are overwhelmed by postnatal high fat diet

Science.gov (United States)

Glastras, Sarah J.; Chen, Hui; Tsang, Michael; Teh, Rachel; McGrath, Rachel T.; Zaky, Amgad; Chen, Jason; Wong, Muh Geot; Pollock, Carol A.; Saad, Sonia

2017-01-01

Aims/Hypothesis Developmental programming induced by maternal obesity influences the development of chronic disease in offspring. In the present study, we aimed to determine whether maternal obesity exaggerates obesity-related kidney disease. Methods Female C57BL/6 mice were fed high-fat diet (HFD) for six weeks prior to mating, during gestation and lactation. Male offspring were weaned to normal chow or HFD. At postnatal Week 8, HFD-fed offspring were administered one dose streptozotocin (STZ, 100 mg/kg i.p.) or vehicle control. Metabolic parameters and renal functional and structural changes were observed at postnatal Week 32. Results HFD-fed offspring had increased adiposity, glucose intolerance and hyperlipidaemia, associated with increased albuminuria and serum creatinine levels. Their kidneys displayed structural changes with increased levels of fibrotic, inflammatory and oxidative stress markers. STZ administration did not potentiate the renal effects of HFD. Though maternal obesity had a sustained effect on serum creatinine and oxidative stress markers in lean offspring, the renal consequences of maternal obesity were overwhelmed by the powerful effect of diet-induced obesity. Conclusion Maternal obesity portends significant risks for metabolic and renal health in adult offspring. However, diet-induced obesity is an overwhelming and potent stimulus for the development of CKD that is not potentiated by maternal obesity. PMID:28225809

The renal consequences of maternal obesity in offspring are overwhelmed by postnatal high fat diet.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sarah J Glastras

Full Text Available Developmental programming induced by maternal obesity influences the development of chronic disease in offspring. In the present study, we aimed to determine whether maternal obesity exaggerates obesity-related kidney disease.Female C57BL/6 mice were fed high-fat diet (HFD for six weeks prior to mating, during gestation and lactation. Male offspring were weaned to normal chow or HFD. At postnatal Week 8, HFD-fed offspring were administered one dose streptozotocin (STZ, 100 mg/kg i.p. or vehicle control. Metabolic parameters and renal functional and structural changes were observed at postnatal Week 32.HFD-fed offspring had increased adiposity, glucose intolerance and hyperlipidaemia, associated with increased albuminuria and serum creatinine levels. Their kidneys displayed structural changes with increased levels of fibrotic, inflammatory and oxidative stress markers. STZ administration did not potentiate the renal effects of HFD. Though maternal obesity had a sustained effect on serum creatinine and oxidative stress markers in lean offspring, the renal consequences of maternal obesity were overwhelmed by the powerful effect of diet-induced obesity.Maternal obesity portends significant risks for metabolic and renal health in adult offspring. However, diet-induced obesity is an overwhelming and potent stimulus for the development of CKD that is not potentiated by maternal obesity.

On the characterization of risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tzur, Y.

1980-01-01

The concept of risk is associated with the concepts of event, harmful consequence, and probability. Initiating events and their possible developments, together with their associated probabilities, induce a probability space on the space of consequences. The risk is defined as a probability density function (or distribution) on the space of harmful consequences. The risks involved in nuclear power plants are taken as an example. Possible presentations of the risk (e.g. radiation-dose space and health-effects space) are discussed and the relationship between them is analysed. The relationship of some presentations in common use (such as the presentation of the risk in the Rasmussen report) to the above definition of the risk is also discussed. Some of the implications of the definition are explored further and the different receptors of risk, social and personal risks, and the possibility (or impossibility) of comparing risks are discussed. Ways of refining the description of the risk in risk assessments are outlined as an application of the definition. It is argued that personal risk, social risk, and correlations between consequences are necessary. (author)

Specialized surveillance for individuals at high risk for melanoma: a cost analysis of a high-risk clinic.

Science.gov (United States)

Watts, Caroline G; Cust, Anne E; Menzies, Scott W; Coates, Elliot; Mann, Graham J; Morton, Rachael L

2015-02-01

Regular surveillance of individuals at high risk for cutaneous melanoma improves early detection and reduces unnecessary excisions; however, a cost analysis of this specialized service has not been undertaken. To determine the mean cost per patient of surveillance in a high-risk clinic from the health service and societal perspectives. We used a bottom-up microcosting method to measure resource use in a consecutive sample of 102 patients treated in a high-risk hospital-based clinic in Australia during a 12-month period. Surveillance and treatment of melanoma. All surveillance and treatment procedures were identified through direct observation, review of medical records, and interviews with staff and were valued using scheduled fees from the Australian government. Societal costs included transportation and loss of productivity. The mean number of clinic visits per year was 2.7 (95% CI, 2.5-2.8) for surveillance and 3.8 (95% CI, 3.4-4.1) for patients requiring surgical excisions. The mean annual cost per patient to the health system was A $882 (95% CI, A $783-$982) (US $599 [95% CI, US $532-$665]); the cost discounted across 20 years was A $11,546 (95% CI, A $10,263-$12,829) (US $7839 [95% CI, US $6969-$8710]). The mean annual societal cost per patient (excluding health system costs) was A $972 (95% CI, A $899-$1045) (US $660 [95% CI, US $611-$710]); the cost discounted across 20 years was A $12,721 (95% CI, A $12,554-$14,463) (US $8637 [95% CI, US $8523-$9820]). Diagnosis of melanoma or nonmelanoma skin cancer and frequent excisions for benign lesions in a relatively small number of patients was responsible for positively skewed health system costs. Microcosting techniques provide an accurate cost estimate for the provision of a specialized service. The high societal cost reflects the time that patients are willing to invest to attend the high-risk clinic. This alternative model of care for a high-risk population has relevance for decision making about health policy.

Iudicium: An Educational Intervention for addressing Risk Perception of Alcohol Abuse in Adolescents.

Science.gov (United States)

Bajac, Héctor; Feliu-Soler, Albert; Meerhoff, Diana; Latorre, Laura; Elices, Matilde

2016-03-02

Negative consequences of alcohol abuse during adolescence have been extensively described. Consequently, different interventions have been developed to address this issue. This article describes the implementation and evaluation of Iudicium, an educational drama-based intervention designed to increase risk perception of alcohol abuse. In this activity, high school students judge a case in which alcohol consumption had negative consequences (e.g., fights, unwanted pregnancy, and car accident). A trial is simulated and after that, a debriefing takes place during which the activity is discussed and informational materials on the effects of alcohol is provided and commented. A total of 318 students (55.7% females and 44.3% males) from five high schools participated in the study. Data regarding risk perception of alcohol abuse and adequacy of the activity was collected before and after the intervention. Results suggest that Iudicium was effective in increasing risk perception of abusive drinking, reaching a 34% of increase regarding risk perception. Participants highlighted the experiential component of Iudicium as a strength. The intervention was well-accepted, easy to understand and apparently an effective tool for increasing risk perception of alcohol abuse amongst high school students.

Prevalence, Risk Factors and Consequent Effect of Dystocia in Holstein Dairy Cows in Iran

Science.gov (United States)

Atashi, Hadi; Abdolmohammadi, Alireza; Dadpasand, Mohammad; Asaadi, Anise

2012-01-01

The objective of this research was to determine the prevalence, risk factors and consequent effect of dystocia on lactation performance in Holstein dairy cows in Iran. The data set consisted of 55,577 calving records on 30,879 Holstein cows in 30 dairy herds for the period March 2000 to April 2009. Factors affecting dystocia were analyzed using multivariable logistic regression models through the maximum likelihood method in the GENMOD procedure. The effect of dystocia on lactation performance and factors affecting calf birth weight were analyzed using mixed linear model in the MIXED procedure. The average incidence of dystocia was 10.8% and the mean (SD) calf birth weight was 42.13 (5.42) kg. Primiparous cows had calves with lower body weight and were more likely to require assistance at parturition (pdystocia than male calves (pdystocia than singletons (pdystocia at calving compared with those that did not (p<0.05). PMID:25049584

Physical activity barriers and motivators among high-risk employees.

Science.gov (United States)

Paguntalan, John C; Gregoski, Mathew

2016-11-22

Worksite wellness programs offer an ideal setting to target high-risk sedentary workers to improve health status. Lack of physical activity is associated with increased risk for coronary heart disease and mortality. Despite the risks, the number of sedentary workers is increasing. This study examined the perceived barriers and motivators for physical activity among employees at high-risk for coronary heart disease. A purposive sample of 24 high-risk workers participating in a wellness program in rural South Carolina were enrolled in the study. Qualitative data was obtained through semi-structured face-to-face interviews. Grounded theory was used to analyze qualitative data, and identify overarching themes. Physical limitations due to pain and weakness, lack of motivation, and lack of time emerged as the main barriers to physical activity. Family relationships were reported as the strongest motivator along with social support and potential health benefits. Findings highlight the unique experience of high-risk workers with physical activity. The findingsunderscore the need to design and implement effective interventions specifically designed to meet the needs of high-risk employees.

The environmental restoration in the management of radiological accidents with off site consequences

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vazquez, C.; Montero, M.; Moraleda, M.; Diaz, J.; Claver, F.; Valles, O.; Rodriguez, N.; Gutierrez, J.

1998-01-01

Radiological accidents are among the potential cases of environmental contamination that could have consequences on the health of the population. These accidents, associated with an increase in the level of radiological exposure surpassing the natural background, have been investigated in greater depth than other conventional accidents. This investigation has included the evaluation of their probability, magnitude and consequences in order to establish safety norms. Nevertheless, the social perception of this type of risk appears to be disproportionately high. The development of a comprehensible and adequate standardized system for the evaluation of the radiological risk and the applicability of corrective actions to reduce this type of risk at local level, will undoubtedly contribute to increase the public confidence in the advised options for the restoration of environments contaminated with the long lived radionuclides. This system should consider the local specificity of each contaminated place, and take into account the associated unwanted consequences for each option. This paper presents the first results of a system to help the decision makers in the quantitative evaluation of the radiological risk produced by long lived radionuclides Cs 137, Cs 134 and Sr 90 spread over urban, agricultural and semi-natural environments and the applicable options to reduce it. The evaluation of these applicable options is made considering the reduction of dose that can be reached, the monetary costs and the significant associated secondary effects if there are any. All these factors are integrated for a time period depending on the half-life of the contaminants and on their strength and distribution on the scenario when intervention is being planned. (authors)

High-risk regions and outbreak modelling of tularemia in humans.

Science.gov (United States)

Desvars-Larrive, A; Liu, X; Hjertqvist, M; Sjöstedt, A; Johansson, A; Rydén, P

2017-02-01

Sweden reports large and variable numbers of human tularemia cases, but the high-risk regions are anecdotally defined and factors explaining annual variations are poorly understood. Here, high-risk regions were identified by spatial cluster analysis on disease surveillance data for 1984-2012. Negative binomial regression with five previously validated predictors (including predicted mosquito abundance and predictors based on local weather data) was used to model the annual number of tularemia cases within the high-risk regions. Seven high-risk regions were identified with annual incidences of 3·8-44 cases/100 000 inhabitants, accounting for 56·4% of the tularemia cases but only 9·3% of Sweden's population. For all high-risk regions, most cases occurred between July and September. The regression models explained the annual variation of tularemia cases within most high-risk regions and discriminated between years with and without outbreaks. In conclusion, tularemia in Sweden is concentrated in a few high-risk regions and shows high annual and seasonal variations. We present reproducible methods for identifying tularemia high-risk regions and modelling tularemia cases within these regions. The results may help health authorities to target populations at risk and lay the foundation for developing an early warning system for outbreaks.

Laser prostatectomy in high-risk patients

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tayib, Abdulmalik M.

2008-01-01

Objective was to evaluate the short-term tolerability and outcome of high power green light potassium titanyl phosphate laser prostatectomy in high-risk patients with symptomatic benign prostatic hyperplasia. Eleven high risk operative patients were included in this study at the International Medical Center, Jeddah, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, between January and September 2007. Patients enrolled in this study underwent preoperative and postoperative, cardiac and anesthesia evaluation. Clinical presentations, ultrasound of urinary tract and preoperative laboratory investigation were recorded. All patients underwent high power green light laser prostatectomy using the green light photo vaporization system with setting of 120 watts. The intraoperative and postoperative complications and follow-up were recorded. The patient's age varied between 65-82 years with a mean age of 75.3+-8.6 years old. Seven patients presented with refractory acute urinary retention and 4 patients presented with severe lower urinary tract symptoms. The average prostate volume was 61.22 cc. All patients had uneventful intra- and postoperative course, without the intensive care. The average blood loss was insignificant and only one of the patients required blood transfusion. Foley catheters were removed one day after the procedure. All patients voided satisfactorily after removal of catheter and 8 patients complained of urgency. High power green light laser prostatectomy is a safe and effective method of treating symptomatic benign prostatic hyperplasia in patients with high operative risk. (author)

Collision Risk Analysis for HSC

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Urban, Jesper; Pedersen, Preben Terndrup; Simonsen, Bo Cerup

1999-01-01

High Speed Craft (HSC) have a risk profile, which is distinctly different from conventional ferries. Due to different hull building material, structural layout, compartmentation and operation, both frequency and consequences of collision and grounding accidents must be expected to be different fr...

Assessment of the risk of African swine fever introduction into Finland using NORA-a rapid tool for semiquantitative assessment of the risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Kyyrö, J; Sahlström, L; Lyytikäinen, T

2017-12-01

The NORA rapid risk assessment tool was developed for situations where there is a change in the disease status of easily transmissible animal diseases in neighbouring countries or in countries with significant interactions with Finland. The goal was to develop a tool that is quick to use and will provide consistent results to support risk management decisions. The model contains 63 questions that define the potential for entry and exposure by nine different pathways. The magnitude of the consequences is defined by 23 statements. The weight of different pathways is defined according to the properties of the assessed disease. The model was built as an Excel spreadsheet and is intended for use by animal health control administrators. As an outcome, the model gives the possible pathways of disease entry into the country, an overall approximation for the probability of entry and the subsequent exposure, an overall estimate for the consequences and a combined overall risk estimate (probability multiplied by magnitude of consequences). Model validity was assessed by expert panels. Outside Africa, African swine fever is currently established in Russia and Sardinia. In addition, there have been cases in both wild boar and domestic pigs in Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and Estonia. Finland has frequent contacts with Russia and Estonia, especially through passengers. The risk of African swine fever (ASF) introduction into Finland was tested with NORA for the situation in December 2015, when ASF was endemic in many parts of Russia, Africa and Sardinia and was present in Baltic countries and in Poland. African swine fever was assessed to have a high probability of entry into Finland, with high consequences and therefore a high overall risk. © 2017 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Risk-adaptive optimization: Selective boosting of high-risk tumor subvolumes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Yusung; Tome, Wolfgang A.

2006-01-01

Background and Purpose: A tumor subvolume-based, risk-adaptive optimization strategy is presented. Methods and Materials: Risk-adaptive optimization employs a biologic objective function instead of an objective function based on physical dose constraints. Using this biologic objective function, tumor control probability (TCP) is maximized for different tumor risk regions while at the same time minimizing normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) for organs at risk. The feasibility of risk-adaptive optimization was investigated for a variety of tumor subvolume geometries, risk-levels, and slopes of the TCP curve. Furthermore, the impact of a correlation parameter, δ, between TCP and NTCP on risk-adaptive optimization was investigated. Results: Employing risk-adaptive optimization, it is possible in a prostate cancer model to increase the equivalent uniform dose (EUD) by up to 35.4 Gy in tumor subvolumes having the highest risk classification without increasing predicted normal tissue complications in organs at risk. For all tumor subvolume geometries investigated, we found that the EUD to high-risk tumor subvolumes could be increased significantly without increasing normal tissue complications above those expected from a treatment plan aiming for uniform dose coverage of the planning target volume. We furthermore found that the tumor subvolume with the highest risk classification had the largest influence on the design of the risk-adaptive dose distribution. The parameter δ had little effect on risk-adaptive optimization. However, the clinical parameters D 5 and γ 5 that represent the risk classification of tumor subvolumes had the largest impact on risk-adaptive optimization. Conclusions: On the whole, risk-adaptive optimization yields heterogeneous dose distributions that match the risk level distribution of different subvolumes within the tumor volume

Phenomenological consequences of supersymmetry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hinchliffe, I.; Littenberg, L.

1982-01-01

This paper deals with the phenomenological consequences of supersymmetric theories, and with the implications of such theories for future high energy machines. The paper represents the work of a subgroup at the meeting. The authors are concerned only with high energy predictions of supersymmetry; low energy consequences (for example in the K/sub o/K-bar/sub o/ system) are discussed in the context of future experiments by another group, and will be mentioned briefly only in the context of constraining existing models. However a brief section is included on the implication for proton decay, although detailed experimental questions are not discussed

Risk matrix model for rotating equipment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wassan Rano Khan

2014-07-01

Full Text Available Different industries have various residual risk levels for their rotating equipment. Accordingly the occurrence rate of the failures and associated failure consequences categories are different. Thus, a generalized risk matrix model is developed in this study which can fit various available risk matrix standards. This generalized risk matrix will be helpful to develop new risk matrix, to fit the required risk assessment scenario for rotating equipment. Power generation system was taken as case study. It was observed that eight subsystems were under risk. Only vibration monitor system was under high risk category, while remaining seven subsystems were under serious and medium risk categories.

Molecular causes and consequences of genetic instability with respect to the FA/BRCA Caretaker Pathway

OpenAIRE

Neveling, Kornelia

2012-01-01

In the context of this thesis, I investigated the molecular causes and functional consequences of genetic instability using a human inherited disease, Fanconi anemia. FA patients display a highly variable clinical phenotype, including congenital abnormalities, progressive bone marrow failure and a high cancer risk. The FA cellular phenotype is characterized by spontaneous and inducible chromosomal instability, and a typical S/G2 phase arrest after exposure to DNA-damaging agents. So far, 13 g...

Who Takes Risks in High-Risk Sports? A Typological Personality Approach

Science.gov (United States)

Castanier, Carole; Le Scanff, Christine; Woodman, Tim

2010-01-01

We investigated the risk-taking behaviors of 302 men involved in high-risk sports (downhill skiing, mountaineering, rock climbing, paragliding, or skydiving). The sportsmen were classified using a typological approach to personality based on eight personality types, which were constructed from combinations of neuroticism, extraversion, and…

A risk-based approach to sanitary sewer pipe asset management.

Science.gov (United States)

Baah, Kelly; Dubey, Brajesh; Harvey, Richard; McBean, Edward

2015-02-01

Wastewater collection systems are an important component of proper management of wastewater to prevent environmental and human health implications from mismanagement of anthropogenic waste. Due to aging and inadequate asset management practices, the wastewater collection assets of many cities around the globe are in a state of rapid decline and in need of urgent attention. Risk management is a tool which can help prioritize resources to better manage and rehabilitate wastewater collection systems. In this study, a risk matrix and a weighted sum multi-criteria decision-matrix are used to assess the consequence and risk of sewer pipe failure for a mid-sized city, using ArcGIS. The methodology shows that six percent of the uninspected sewer pipe assets of the case study have a high consequence of failure while four percent of the assets have a high risk of failure and hence provide priorities for inspection. A map incorporating risk of sewer pipe failure and consequence is developed to facilitate future planning, rehabilitation and maintenance programs. The consequence of failure assessment also includes a novel failure impact factor which captures the effect of structurally defective stormwater pipes on the failure assessment. The methodology recommended in this study can serve as a basis for future planning and decision making and has the potential to be universally applied by municipal sewer pipe asset managers globally to effectively manage the sanitary sewer pipe infrastructure within their jurisdiction. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Radiation Risk and Possible Consequences for Ukrainian Population

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pivovarov, Alexander [Ukrainian State Chemical-Technology Univ., Dnepropetrovsk (Ukraine)

2006-09-15

The paper deals with the values of risk related to environmental pollution with radionuclides from the main sources located both on the territory of Ukraine and outside, which affect the Ukrainian population, in the context of long-range outlook. Ratios of risk for stochastic effects occurrence are given per unit of individual or collective dose, as well as for occurrence of fatal cancer, non-fatal cancer or serious hereditary effects. Besides, the paper mentions not only the impact of ionizing radiation, but severe population stress as well, which in certain regions turns into radiophobia. It is shown that for essential decrease of radiation risk in Ukraine, global problems should be solved, first of all, at the governmental level. Whereas a number of issues connected with the Chernobyl catastrophe are at least partially solved, the problems concerning the effects of radon and other radiation-dangerous factors are still to be tackled.

Radiation Risk and Possible Consequences for Ukrainian Population

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pivovarov, Alexander

2006-01-01

The paper deals with the values of risk related to environmental pollution with radionuclides from the main sources located both on the territory of Ukraine and outside, which affect the Ukrainian population, in the context of long-range outlook. Ratios of risk for stochastic effects occurrence are given per unit of individual or collective dose, as well as for occurrence of fatal cancer, non-fatal cancer or serious hereditary effects. Besides, the paper mentions not only the impact of ionizing radiation, but severe population stress as well, which in certain regions turns into radiophobia. It is shown that for essential decrease of radiation risk in Ukraine, global problems should be solved, first of all, at the governmental level. Whereas a number of issues connected with the Chernobyl catastrophe are at least partially solved, the problems concerning the effects of radon and other radiation-dangerous factors are still to be tackled

Intuitive risk perception: research results of attitude surveys toward risk and technology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Renn, O.; Peters, H.P.

1982-01-01

Using the instruments of the empirical social sciences, a cross-section study was conducted comprising experiments on qualitative risk characteristics, in-depth interviews on mechanisms of risk perception and representative surveys of the public on technical risk sources, in particular with regard to nuclear energy. The results of these studies show that person-related expectations in respect of risk consequences, the possibility of personal influencing control, the severity of risk consequences and one's own risk propensity play a significant role in the evaluation of risks

A social work study high-risk behavior among teenagers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mohammad Reza Iravani

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Teenagers are believed the people who are supposed to build the world's future. High-risk behaviors such as addiction to drugs, smoking cigarettes, sex, etc. could significantly hurts teenagers and there must be some supporting programs to reduce these issues as much as possible. This paper performs an empirical investigation to study the different factors influencing high- risk behavior among teenagers who live in a city of Esfahan, Iran. The proposed study designs a questionnaire and distribute between two groups of female and male teenagers. The results indicate that while there is a meaningful relationship between high-risk behaviors and average high school marks among male students there is no meaningful relationship between high-risk behaviors and high school grades among female students. The results also indicate that there is a meaningful difference between gender and high-risk behavior. The season of birth for female and male students is another important factor for having high-risk behaviors. While the order of birth plays an important role among male students, the order of birth is not an important factor among female teenagers. Finally, the results indicate that teenagers' parental financial affordability plays a vital role on both female and male teenagers.

The meaning and consequences of tuberculosis for an at-risk urban group in Ecuador.

Science.gov (United States)

Armijos, Rodrigo X; Weigel, M Margaret; Qincha, Matilde; Ulloa, Bernarda

2008-03-01

To explore knowledge, beliefs, perceptions, and attitudes about tuberculosis (TB) in a high-risk group in Ecuador. This included signs and symptoms, causation, transmission, treatment, treatment adherence, impact on lifestyle and role functioning, and stigma. A convenience sample of 212 adults undergoing diagnostic TB testing at a public health facility in Quito, Ecuador, was recruited for the study. Data were collected from subjects during face-to-face interviews using a structured instrument containing closed and openended questions. Descriptive and bivariate statistics were used for quantitative analyses; content analysis was used to analyze qualitative data. Most subjects were familiar with TB and some of its characteristics and treatment aspects. However, many also held misconceptions or lacked key knowledge which could adversely affect early diagnosis and treatment and adherence to treatment, and thereby allow the disease to spread. Subject education was the single most important predictor of knowledge, beliefs, perceptions, and attitudes followed by gender, age, and prior disease experience. The subjects linked TB to multiple adverse health, economic, psychological, and social consequences, including stigma. Although none knew if they had TB when interviewed, many reported feeling stigmatized just by being tested. The subjects identified a strong need for formal educational opportunities to learn about TB prevention and control but had little access to these. The study findings highlight a need for enhanced population access to TB education. Health education and social marketing directed toward increasing TB knowledge and changing perceptions and attitudes could ultimately contribute to improved early diagnosis, treatment adherence, prevention, and decreased stigma. This could be accomplished providing that the public health infrastructure is adequate to meet demands.

Evaluation of Risk Management Strategies for a Low-Cost, High-Risk Project

Science.gov (United States)

Shishko, Robert; Jorgensen, Edward J.

1996-01-01

This paper summarizes work in progress to define and implement a risk management process tailored to a low-cost, high-risk, NASA mission -the Microrover Flight Experiment (MFEX, commonly called the Mars microrover).

Identification of hazardous drinking with the Young Adult Alcohol Consequences Questionnaire: Relative operating characteristics as a function of gender.

Science.gov (United States)

Read, Jennifer P; Haas, Amie L; Radomski, Sharon; Wickham, Robert E; Borish, Sarah E

2016-10-01

Heavy and problematic drinking is common on college campuses and is associated with myriad hazardous outcomes. The Young Adult Alcohol Consequences Questionnaire (YAACQ; Read et al., 2006) was developed to provide comprehensive and expedient assessment of negative consequences of young adult drinking and has been used in a number of research and clinical settings. To date, no empirically derived cutoffs for the YAACQ have been available for use in the identification of those drinkers at greatest risk. This was the objective of the present study. In a large (N = 1,311) and demographically heterogeneous multisite sample, we identified cutoff scores for the YAACQ, and the contrasted detection of hazardous drinking using these cutoffs with those recommended for the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT). We also examined whether cutoffs differed by gender. Results of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis yielded cutoffs that delineate 3 levels (or zones) of hazardous drinking risk: low, moderate, and high. A cutoff of 8 differentiated those at low risk from those at moderate risk or greater, and a cutoff of 16 differentiated between moderate and high risk. These zones corresponded to other indices of risky drinking, including heavy episodic "binge" drinking, more frequent alcohol consumption, and engagement in alcohol risk behaviors. Scores differentiating low to moderate risk differed for men (8) and women (10), whereas the cutoff for high risk was the same (16) across the sexes. Findings suggest that the YAACQ can be used to reliably assess level of drinking risk among college students. Furthermore, these cut scores may be used to refer to interventions varying in intensity level, based on level of indicated alcohol risk. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Preliminary risk analysis of an Hydrogen production plant using the reformed process of methane with vapor coupled to a high temperature nuclear reactor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Flores y Flores, A.; Nelson E, P.F.; Francois L, J.L.

2004-01-01

It is necessary to identify the different types of dangers, as well as their causes, probabilities and consequences of the same ones, inside plants, industries and any process to classify the risks. This work is focused in particular to a study using the technical HAZOP (Hazard and Operability) for a plant of reformed of methane with vapor coupled to a nuclear reactor of the type HTTR (High Temperature Test Reactor), which is designed to be built in Japan. In particular in this study the interaction is analyzed between the nuclear reactor and the plant of reformed of methane with vapor. After knowing the possible causes of risk one it is built chart of results of HAZOP to have a better vision of the consequences of this faults toward the buildings and constructions, to people and the influence of the fault on each plant; for what there are proposed solutions to mitigate these consequences or to avoid them. The work is divided in three sections: a brief introduction about the technique of HAZOP; some important aspects of the plant of reformed of methane with vapor; and the construction of the chart of results of HAZOP. (Author)

Leukemia risk as a consequence of Mayak PA operation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kuznetsova, I.S.; Koshurnikova, N. A.

2004-01-01

The purpose of this study is the epidemiological risk assessment of leukemia incidence and mortality in population of Ozyorsk, the closest town to Mayak Production Association as well as in Mayak workers during 1948-2000. Standardized rates of leukemia incidence and mortality in the whole population of Ozyorsk were proved to be significantly higher in comparison with national rates. Relative risk values decrease 10-30% in occupationally non-exposed population ( the rest of the population) compared with estimations on the whole population, however, remaining to be more than one. Standardized incidence rate (SIR) in males was: 1, 33 (95% CI: 1,00-1,75), in females: 1,17 (95% CI: 0,90-1,49), Standardized mortality rate (SMR) in males was 1,34 (95%CI:1,01-1,74), in females 1,24 (95% CI:0,97-1,56). Given more accurate diagnostics in the city compared with national one, there are no grounds to connect the increase in leukemia incidence and mortality in the rest of the population with radiation factor also because now there is no information on dose effect due to living in the vicinity of Mayak Production Association. Standardized leukemia mortality ratio in Mayak workers was 1,91 (95% CI: 1,48-2,43) in males and 2,07 (95% CI:1,31-3,10) in females. Regardless of the better quality of fit in linear-quadratic model, the preference in the analysis is given to linear dependence which allows to avoid underestimation of risk at doses of most interest for radiation protection. The doses were lagged for 2 years. Thus, using linear model with 2-year lag excess relative risk per 1 Gy of external g-exposure was 1.8 (95% CI:0.8-3,6). The study of risk dependence to time since exposure demonstrated that the highest risk of leukemia mortality falls on the period of 2-5 years after exposure (excess relative risk of leukemia mortality in this, period was 11,1 compared to the period of 0-2 years). Excess relative risk for the period of 5-10 years is 7,6, i. e. 1,5 times lower than in the

Risk factors and the occurrence of cerebral palsy in high risk infants

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Setyo Handryastuti

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Background The incidence of cerebral palsy (CP has increased due to better survival rates of high-risk babies. Early detection and time to the occurrence of CP in the first year of life is important in order to provide early intervention. Objectives To determine the proportion of CP in high-risk babies, the time to the occurrence of CP in the first year, and assess possible associations between risk factors of CP and time to the occurrence of CP. Methods A prospective cohort study was done on 150 high-risk babies up to the age of 12 months. We obtained history of motor ability and assessed primitive reflexes and postural reactions of subjects at the ages of 4 and 6 months. The diagnosis of CP was established at 6 and 12 months of age. Results The proportion of CP was 26% at 6 months and 24% at 12 months of age. Significant risk factors associated with CP at 6 and 12 months of age were cerebral ultrasound abnormalities, hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy, and intracranial hemorrhage. In 88.7% of subjects with CP, CP was detected in the first 6 months. Mean age at the occurrence of CP was 9.99 months (95%CI 9.46 to 10.53. Risk factors that significantly affected the time to the occurrence of CP by survival analysis were ultrasound abnormalities and hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy. Conclusions Cerebral palsy can be detected as early as the first 6 months of life. Cerebral ultrasound abnormalities and hypoxic ischemic encephalopathy are the risk factors associated with CP.

Factors Influencing Cancer Risk Perception in High Risk Populations: A Systematic Review

Science.gov (United States)

2011-01-01

Background Patients at higher than average risk of heritable cancer may process risk information differently than the general population. However, little is known about clinical, demographic, or psychosocial predictors that may impact risk perception in these groups. The objective of this study was to characterize factors associated with perceived risk of developing cancer in groups at high risk for cancer based on genetics or family history. Methods We searched Ovid MEDLINE, Ovid Embase, Ovid PsycInfo, and Scopus from inception through April 2009 for English-language, original investigations in humans using core concepts of "risk" and "cancer." We abstracted key information and then further restricted articles dealing with perceived risk of developing cancer due to inherited risk. Results Of 1028 titles identified, 53 articles met our criteria. Most (92%) used an observational design and focused on women (70%) with a family history of or contemplating genetic testing for breast cancer. Of the 53 studies, 36 focused on patients who had not had genetic testing for cancer risk, 17 included studies of patients who had undergone genetic testing for cancer risk. Family history of cancer, previous prophylactic tests and treatments, and younger age were associated with cancer risk perception. In addition, beliefs about the preventability and severity of cancer, personality factors such as "monitoring" personality, the ability to process numerical information, as well as distress/worry also were associated with cancer risk perception. Few studies addressed non-breast cancer or risk perception in specific demographic groups (e.g. elderly or minority groups) and few employed theory-driven analytic strategies to decipher interrelationships of factors. Conclusions Several factors influence cancer risk perception in patients at elevated risk for cancer. The science of characterizing and improving risk perception in cancer for high risk groups, although evolving, is still

Factors Influencing Cancer Risk Perception in High Risk Populations: A Systematic Review

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tilburt Jon C

2011-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Patients at higher than average risk of heritable cancer may process risk information differently than the general population. However, little is known about clinical, demographic, or psychosocial predictors that may impact risk perception in these groups. The objective of this study was to characterize factors associated with perceived risk of developing cancer in groups at high risk for cancer based on genetics or family history. Methods We searched Ovid MEDLINE, Ovid Embase, Ovid PsycInfo, and Scopus from inception through April 2009 for English-language, original investigations in humans using core concepts of "risk" and "cancer." We abstracted key information and then further restricted articles dealing with perceived risk of developing cancer due to inherited risk. Results Of 1028 titles identified, 53 articles met our criteria. Most (92% used an observational design and focused on women (70% with a family history of or contemplating genetic testing for breast cancer. Of the 53 studies, 36 focused on patients who had not had genetic testing for cancer risk, 17 included studies of patients who had undergone genetic testing for cancer risk. Family history of cancer, previous prophylactic tests and treatments, and younger age were associated with cancer risk perception. In addition, beliefs about the preventability and severity of cancer, personality factors such as "monitoring" personality, the ability to process numerical information, as well as distress/worry also were associated with cancer risk perception. Few studies addressed non-breast cancer or risk perception in specific demographic groups (e.g. elderly or minority groups and few employed theory-driven analytic strategies to decipher interrelationships of factors. Conclusions Several factors influence cancer risk perception in patients at elevated risk for cancer. The science of characterizing and improving risk perception in cancer for high risk groups, although

Consequences of dispersal of a radioactive source

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chester, R.O.; Chester, C.V.

1978-01-01

The purpose of this study is to examine the question of whether the risk and consequences of theft or sabotage of facilities or vehicles containing small quantities of SNM, source, and by-product materials are such that licensees should be required to adopt further measures to safeguard them. In the course of the study an assessment will be made of the potential consequences of malevolent use of the referenced materials. To provide, these will be compared with the corresponding characteristics of non-nuclear materials such as chemical or biological agents

Radiological consequences of the Chernobyl reactor accident

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hill, P.; Hille, R.

2002-01-01

Fifty years of peaceful utilization of nuclear power were interrupted by the reactor accident in unit 4 of the Chernobyl nuclear power station in Ukraine in 1986, a disruptive event whose consequences profoundly affected the way of life of millions of people, and which has moved the public to this day. Releases of radioactive materials contaminated large areas of Belarus, the Russian Federation, and Ukraine. Early damage in the form of radiation syndrome was suffered by a group of rescue workers and members of the reactor operating crew, in some cases with fatal consequences, while the population does not, until now, show a statistically significant increase in the rate of late damage due to ionizing radiation expect for thyroid diseases in children. In particular, no increases in the rates of solid tumors, leukaemia, genetic defects, and congenital defects were detected. For some risk groups exposed to high radiation doses (such as liquidators) the hazard may still be greater, but the large majority of the population need not live in fear of serious impacts on health. Nevertheless, the accident shows major negative social and psychological consequences reinforced by the breakdown of the Soviet Union. This may be one reason for the observed higher incidence of other diseases whose association with the effects of radiation as a cause has not so far been proven. The measurement campaign conducted by the federal government in 1991-1993 addressed these very concerns of the public in an effort to provide unbiased information about exposures detected, on the one hand, in order to alleviate the fears of the public and reduce stress and, on the other hand, to contribute to the scientific evaluation of the radiological situation in the regions most highly exposed. The groups of the population requiring special attention in the future include especially children growing up in highly contaminated regions, and the liquidators of 1986 and 1987 employed in the period immediately

Assessment of risk of potential exposures on facilities industries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Leocadio, Joao Carlos

2007-03-01

This work develops a model to evaluate potential exposures on open facilities of industrial radiography in Brazil. This model will decisively contribute to optimize operational, radiological protection and safety procedures, to prevent radiation accidents and to reduce human errors in industrial radiography. The probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) methodology was very useful to assess potential exposures. The open facilities of industrial radiography were identified as the scenario to be analyzed in what concerns the evaluation of potential exposures, due to their high accidents indices. The results of the assessment of potential exposures confirm that the industrial radiography in Brazil is a high-risk practice as classified by the IAEA. The risk of potential exposure was estimated to be 40,5 x 10 -2 per year in Brazil, having as main consequences injuries to the workers' hands and arms. In the world scene, the consequences are worst, leading to fatalities of people, thus emphasizing the high risk of industrial radiography. (author)

Psychological characteristics in high-risk MSM in China

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Chen Guanzhi

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Men who have sex with men (MSM have become a high-risk group of HIV infection in China. To date, little is known regarding the behavioral, social and psychological characteristics in Chinese MSM, which makes the implementation of preventive and therapeutic strategies for this high-risk subpopulation of people extremely difficult. Methods A total of 714 questionnaires were retrieved from the database of a Chinese government-sponsored National Key Research Project titled "Risk Analysis and Strategic Prevention of HIV Transmission from MSM to the General Population in China". The respondents were categorized into a high-risk group and a control group. Their behavioral, social and psychological characteristics were comparatively analyzed. Results Of the 714 MSM analyzed, 59 (8.26% had high-risk homosexual behaviors. This sub-group of MSM had a higher in-marriage rate, a higher monthly income, heavier alcohol consumption and more serious problems with sexual abuse in childhood, intentional suicide attempts and mistaken assumption on condom's role in protecting HIV infection, as compared with the control group (P P > 0.05. A vast majority of the individuals in both behavior categories expressed support of legally protected gay clubs as well as gay marriage legislation in China. There was a strong correlation between high-risk behaviors and sexual abuse in childhood, alcohol drinking, income level and a mistaken belief in perfect HIV protection through the use of condoms. Conclusions MSM with and without high-risk homosexual behaviors have different social and psychological characteristics, which should be taken into account when implementing behavioral and therapeutic interventions aimed at preventing HIV/AIDS transmission among MSM as well as from MSM to the general population in China.

Predictive risk modelling under different data access scenarios: who is identified as high risk and for how long?

Science.gov (United States)

Johnson, Tracy L; Kaldor, Jill; Sutherland, Kim; Humphries, Jacob; Jorm, Louisa R; Levesque, Jean-Frederic

2018-01-01

Objective This observational study critically explored the performance of different predictive risk models simulating three data access scenarios, comparing: (1) sociodemographic and clinical profiles; (2) consistency in high-risk designation across models; and (3) persistence of high-risk status over time. Methods Cross-sectional health survey data (2006–2009) for more than 260 000 Australian adults 45+ years were linked to longitudinal individual hospital, primary care, pharmacy and mortality data. Three risk models predicting acute emergency hospitalisations were explored, simulating conditions where data are accessed through primary care practice management systems, or through hospital-based electronic records, or through a hypothetical ‘full’ model using a wider array of linked data. High-risk patients were identified using different risk score thresholds. Models were reapplied monthly for 24 months to assess persistence in high-risk categorisation. Results The three models displayed similar statistical performance. Three-quarters of patients in the high-risk quintile from the ‘full’ model were also identified using the primary care or hospital-based models, with the remaining patients differing according to age, frailty, multimorbidity, self-rated health, polypharmacy, prior hospitalisations and imminent mortality. The use of higher risk prediction thresholds resulted in lower levels of agreement in high-risk designation across models and greater morbidity and mortality in identified patient populations. Persistence of high-risk status varied across approaches according to updated information on utilisation history, with up to 25% of patients reassessed as lower risk within 1 year. Conclusion/implications Small differences in risk predictors or risk thresholds resulted in comparatively large differences in who was classified as high risk and for how long. Pragmatic predictive risk modelling design decisions based on data availability or projected

L-061: EPR--First responders: Risk and Protection radiological emergency

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2011-01-01

This conference is about the basic risks, protection and the consequences in a radiological emergency. The first responders have to know the deterministic and stochastic effects in the health as well as the cancer risk due of the high radioactive doses exposure

CAUSES AND CONSEQUENCES OF THE SCHOOL IN HIGH SCHOOL DROPOUT: CASE UNIVERSIDAD AUTÓNOMA DE SINALOA

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Rosalva Ruiz-Ramírez

2014-07-01

Full Text Available The present investigation has the objective to establish the personal, economic and social causes and consequences that create school desertion of high school in Universidad Autónoma de Sinaloa (UAS. The investigation took place in the high school located in the municipality of El Fuerte, Sinaloa, in the academic unit (UA of San Blas and its extensions The Constancia and The Higueras of the Natoches in 2013. A mixed approach was used to analyze qualitative and quantitative information; the studied population was 18 women and 17 men deserters of the school cycle 2011-2012, ten teachers, four directors and twenty non-deserting students. In the results one can see that the principal factor for school desertion was the personnel to be married and not approving classes. The main consequence was economic, highlighting that the poverty cycle is hard to break.

Use of proton pump inhibitors for the provision of stress ulcer prophylaxis: clinical and economic consequences.

Science.gov (United States)

Barletta, Jeffrey F; Sclar, David A

2014-01-01

The provision of stress ulcer prophylaxis (SUP) for the prevention of clinically significant bleeding is widely recognized as a crucial component of care in critically ill patients. Nevertheless, SUP is often provided to non-critically ill patients despite a risk for clinically significant bleeding of roughly 0.1 %. The overuse of SUP therefore introduces added risks for adverse drug events and cost, with minimal expected benefit in clinical outcome. Historically, histamine-2-receptor antagonists (H2RAs) have been the preferred agent for SUP; however, recent data have revealed proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) as the most common modality (76 %). There are no high quality randomized controlled trials demonstrating superiority with PPIs compared with H2RAs for the prevention of clinically significant bleeding associated with stress ulcers. In contrast, PPIs have recently been linked to several adverse effects including Clostridium difficile diarrhea and pneumonia. These complications have substantial economic consequences and have a marked impact on the overall cost effectiveness of PPI therapy. Nevertheless, PPI use remains widespread in patients who are at both high and low risk for clinically significant bleeding. This article will describe the utilization of PPIs for SUP and present the clinical and economic consequences linked to their use/overuse.

Socioeconomic consequences of nuclear reactor accidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tawil, J.J.; Callaway, J.W.; Coles, B.L.; Cronin, F.J.; Currie, J.W.; Imhoff, K.L.; Lewis, P.M.; Nesse, R.J.; Strenge, D.L.

1984-06-01

This report identifies and characterizes the off-site socioeconomic consequences that would likely result from a severe radiological accident at a nuclear power plant. The types of impacts that are addressed include economic impacts, health impacts, social/psychological impacts and institutional impacts. These impacts are identified for each of several phases of a reactor accident - from the warning phase through the post-resettlement phase. The relative importance of the impact during each accident phase and the degree to which the impact can be predicted are indicated. The report also examines the methods that are currently used for assessing nuclear reactor accidents, including development of accident scenarios and the estimating of socioeconomic accident consequences with various models. Finally, a critical evaluation is made regarding the use of impact analyses in estimating the contribution of socioeconomic consequences to nuclear accident reactor accident risk. 116 references, 7 figures, 15 tables

Overview of the reactor safety study consequence model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wall, I.B.; Yaniv, S.S.; Blond, R.M.; McGrath, P.E.; Church, H.W.; Wayland, J.R.

1977-01-01

The Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400) is a comprehensive assessment of the potential risk to the public from accidents in light water power reactors. The engineering analysis of the plants is described in detail in the Reactor Safety Study: it provides an estimate of the probability versus magnitude of the release of radioactive material. The consequence model, which is the subject of this paper, describes the progression of the postulated accident after the release of the radioactive material from the containment. A brief discussion of the manner in which the consequence calculations are performed is presented. The emphasis in the description is on the models and data that differ significantly from those previously used for these types of assessments. The results of the risk calculations for 100 light water power reactors are summarized

Urinary tract infection (UTI) in newborns: risk factors, identification and prevention of consequences.

Science.gov (United States)

Milas, Vesna; Puseljić, Silvija; Stimac, Maja; Dobrić, Hana; Lukić, Gordana

2013-09-01

The aim of the study is identification of urinary tract infections (UTI) and urinary tract anomalies (UTA) already in the perinatal period. The authors attempted to prevent serious consequences of the above conditions in the examined children. Family history data, certain conditions in pregnancy and appertaining symptoms in children were elaborated to specify selective distinctive criteria for children at risk. Newborns (1200) were selected for potential existence of a UTI. All the examined newborns underwent a urinalysis. Those with significant bacteriuria were taken urine specimens, C-reactive protein (RVP), Complete Blood Count (CBC) and bilirubin. The newborns with a UTI and a suspected UTA were sent to ultrasound examination, direct radio nuclide cystography and Tc99m MAG3 dynamic scanning. The frequency of a UTI in the perinatal period amounted to 4.5%. A UTA was found in 29.6% of the examinees. The infection was more likely to appear among newborns with a UTA in their families, a UTI, pre-eclampsia and a febrile infection in mother, intrauterine growth retardation, premature rupture of membranes (RVP), umbilical cord strangulation, jaundice, cyanosis, breathing difficulties, seizures and asphyxia.

Analytical assessment of current insurance as part of management of consequences of emergencies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

K.Yu. Polyak

2017-03-01

Full Text Available The article examines the current state of the insurance system as a component of managing the consequences of emergencies. The researches are presented in the following areas: the insurance against accidents and fire risks and risks of natural disasters; property insurance (property, goods and agricultural products; the insurance of transport (by modes; liability insurance (by liability. So, the author made the statistical and analytical assessment of consequences of emergencies that was learned through the study of modern insurance system, which enabled to identify the complex of accounting objects in the management of consequences of emergencies.

Investigation of the Psychosocial Factors Affecting High Risk Driving Behaviors in Adolescents in the City of Tehran, 2014

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Seyyed Mohammad Hossein Javadi

2017-10-01

Conclusion: Among predictor variables aggression, law breaking behavior, and national religious identity can better predict driving accidents, attitude toward law, and high risk behaviors. Aggression, attitude, and law breaking behavior are considered as abnormal behaviors that lead to legal problems, delinquencies, substance abuse and other destructive behaviors among adolescents and consequently cause damage, injury and disabilities in themselves and others. Moreover, involvement in aggressive behaviors can play a critical role in creating and exacerbating new behavioral problems in adolescents, and those problems are carried over immutably at the later stages of their life.

Missed pills: frequency, reasons, consequences and solutions.

Science.gov (United States)

Chabbert-Buffet, Nathalie; Jamin, Christian; Lete, Iñaki; Lobo, Paloma; Nappi, Rossella E; Pintiaux, Axelle; Häusler, Günther; Fiala, Christian

2017-06-01

Oral hormonal contraception is an effective contraceptive method as long as regular daily intake is maintained. However, a daily routine is a constraint for many women and can lead to missed pills, pill discontinuation and/or unintended pregnancy. This article describes the frequency of inconsistent use, the consequences, the risk factors and the possible solutions. The article comprises a narrative review of the literature. Forgetting one to three pills per cycle is a frequent problem among 15-51% of users, generally adolescents. The reasons for this are age, inability to establish a routine, pill unavailability, side effects, loss of motivation and lack of involvement in the initial decision to use oral contraceptives. The consequences are 'escape ovulations' and, possibly, unintended pregnancy. Solutions are either to use a long-acting method or, for women who prefer to take oral contraceptives, use a continuous or long-cycle regimen to reduce the risks of follicular development and thus the likelihood of ovulation and unintended pregnancy. A progestogen with a long half-life can increase ovarian suppression. For women deciding to use oral contraceptives, a shortened or eliminated hormone-free interval and a progestogen with a long half-life may be an option to reduce the negative consequences of missed oral contraceptive pills.

The Chernobyl accident and its consequences.

Science.gov (United States)

Saenko, V; Ivanov, V; Tsyb, A; Bogdanova, T; Tronko, M; Demidchik, Yu; Yamashita, S

2011-05-01

The accident at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant was the worst industrial accident of the last century that involved radiation. The unprecedented release of multiple different radioisotopes led to radioactive contamination of large areas surrounding the accident site. The exposure of the residents of these areas was varied and therefore the consequences for health and radioecology could not be reliably estimated quickly. Even though some studies have now been ongoing for 25 years and have provided a better understanding of the situation, these are yet neither complete nor comprehensive enough to determine the long-term risk. A true assessment can only be provided after following the observed population for their natural lifespan. Here we review the technical aspects of the accident and provide relevant information on radioactive releases that resulted in exposure of this large population to radiation. A number of different groups of people were exposed to radiation: workers involved in the initial clean-up response, and members of the general population who were either evacuated from the settlements in the Chernobyl nuclear power plant vicinity shortly after the accident, or continued to live in the affected territories of Belarus, Russia and Ukraine. Through domestic efforts and extensive international co-operation, essential information on radiation dose and health status for this population has been collected. This has permitted the identification of high-risk groups and the use of more specialised means of collecting information, diagnosis, treatment and follow-up. Because radiation-associated thyroid cancer is one of the major health consequences of the Chernobyl accident, a particular emphasis is placed on this malignancy. The initial epidemiological studies are reviewed, as are the most significant studies and/or aid programmes in the three affected countries. Copyright © 2011 The Royal College of Radiologists. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights

Management of Skin Cancer in the High-Risk Patient.

Science.gov (United States)

Behan, James W; Sutton, Adam; Wysong, Ashley

2016-12-01

Skin cancer is the most common of human cancers and outnumbers all other types of cancer combined in the USA by over threefold. The majority of non-melanoma skin cancers are easily treated with surgery or locally destructive techniques performed under local anesthesia in the cost-effective outpatient setting. However, there is a subset of "high-risk" cases that prove challenging in terms of morbidity, mortality, adjuvant treatment required, as well as overall cost to the health care system. In our opinion, the term "high risk" when applied to skin cancer can mean one of three things: a high-risk tumor with aggressive histologic and/or clinical features with an elevated risk for local recurrence or regional/distant metastasis, a high-risk patient with the ongoing development of multiple skin cancers, and a high-risk patient based on immunosuppression. We have recently proposed classifying NMSC as a chronic disease in a certain subset of patients. Although no consensus definition exists for a chronic disease in medicine, there are three components that are present in most definitions: duration of at least 1 year, need for ongoing medical care, and functional impairment and/or alteration of activities of daily living (ADLs) and quality of life (QOL). Immunosuppression can refer to exogenous (organ or stem cell transplant patients,) or endogenous (HIV, leukemia, lymphoma, genodermatoses with DNA mismatch repair problems or other immunosuppression) causes. These patients are at risk for high-risk tumors and/or the development of multiple tumors.

Man, technology and risk

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Renn, O

1981-06-01

Using the instruments of empirical social sciences, a cross-section study was conducted comprising experiments on qualitative risk characteristics, in-depth interviews on mechanisms of risk perception and representative surveys of the public on technical risk sources, in particular with regard to nuclear energy. The results of these studies show that person-related expectations in respect of risk consequences, the possibility of personal influencing control, the severeness of risk consequences and one's own risk propensity play a significant role in the evaluation of risks. (Translated from German, original report Juel-Spez--67).

The "polyenviromic risk score": Aggregating environmental risk factors predicts conversion to psychosis in familial high-risk subjects.

Science.gov (United States)

Padmanabhan, Jaya L; Shah, Jai L; Tandon, Neeraj; Keshavan, Matcheri S

2017-03-01

Young relatives of individuals with schizophrenia (i.e. youth at familial high-risk, FHR) are at increased risk of developing psychotic disorders, and show higher rates of psychiatric symptoms, cognitive and neurobiological abnormalities than non-relatives. It is not known whether overall exposure to environmental risk factors increases risk of conversion to psychosis in FHR subjects. Subjects consisted of a pilot longitudinal sample of 83 young FHR subjects. As a proof of principle, we examined whether an aggregate score of exposure to environmental risk factors, which we term a 'polyenviromic risk score' (PERS), could predict conversion to psychosis. The PERS combines known environmental risk factors including cannabis use, urbanicity, season of birth, paternal age, obstetric and perinatal complications, and various types of childhood adversity, each weighted by its odds ratio for association with psychosis in the literature. A higher PERS was significantly associated with conversion to psychosis in young, familial high-risk subjects (OR=1.97, p=0.009). A model combining the PERS and clinical predictors had a sensitivity of 27% and specificity of 96%. An aggregate index of environmental risk may help predict conversion to psychosis in FHR subjects. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Infectious Cognition: Risk Perception Affects Socially Shared Retrieval-Induced Forgetting of Medical Information.

Science.gov (United States)

Coman, Alin; Berry, Jessica N

2015-12-01

When speakers selectively retrieve previously learned information, listeners often concurrently, and covertly, retrieve their memories of that information. This concurrent retrieval typically enhances memory for mentioned information (the rehearsal effect) and impairs memory for unmentioned but related information (socially shared retrieval-induced forgetting, SSRIF), relative to memory for unmentioned and unrelated information. Building on research showing that anxiety leads to increased attention to threat-relevant information, we explored whether concurrent retrieval is facilitated in high-anxiety real-world contexts. Participants first learned category-exemplar facts about meningococcal disease. Following a manipulation of perceived risk of infection (low vs. high risk), they listened to a mock radio show in which some of the facts were selectively practiced. Final recall tests showed that the rehearsal effect was equivalent between the two risk conditions, but SSRIF was significantly larger in the high-risk than in the low-risk condition. Thus, the tendency to exaggerate consequences of news events was found to have deleterious consequences. © The Author(s) 2015.

Consequences of long-term power outages and high electricity prices lasting for months

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2005-01-01

Several areas in the world have experienced electricity outages for longer periods of time, but the consequences of these are sparsely documented. There is a need for further analysis of the socioeconomic consequences of the outages. In addition to KILE (Quality adjusted revenue framework for un supplied energy) costs one has to take into account that the costs often increase proportionally with the durance of the outage, and that KILE tariffs do not reflect lost consumer's surplus for products that are not produced during an outage. A good example is the public underground transport, where the company's economical loss can be significantly smaller than the loss of utility value for the travellers. If the authorities act with reasonability it is difficult to see that periods with very high prices represent a big problem. The most important problems are related to diffused effects, especially for households with a weak economy. These problems can be solved with improved contractual forms (price guarantees) or by transfers to the households, without weakening the incentives for electricity economising (ml)

Insufficient sleep in adolescents: causes and consequences.

Science.gov (United States)

Owens, Judith A; Weiss, Miriam R

2017-08-01

Insufficient sleep poses an important and complicated set of health risks in the adolescent population. Not only is deficient sleep (defined as both sleep duration inadequate to meet sleep needs and sleep timing misaligned with the body's circadian rhythms) at epidemic levels in this population, but the contributing factors are both complex and numerous and there are a myriad of negative physical and mental health, safety and performance consequences. Causes of inadequate sleep identified in this population include internal biological processes such as the normal shift (delay) in circadian rhythm that occurs in association with puberty and a developmentally-based slowing of the "sleep drive", and external factors including extracurricular activities, excessive homework load, evening use of electronic media, caffeine intake and early school start times. Consequences range from inattentiveness, reduction in executive functioning and poor academic performance to increased risk of obesity and cardio-metabolic dysfunction, mood disturbances which include increased suicidal ideation, a higher risk of engaging in health risk behaviors such as alcohol and substance use, and increased rates of car crashes, occupational injuries and sports-related injuries. In response to these concerns, a number of promising measures have been proposed to reduce the burden of adolescent sleep loss, including healthy sleep education for students and families, and later school start times to allow adolescents to obtain sufficient and appropriately-timed sleep.

PERSPECTIVE: Technical fixes and climate change: optimizing for risks and consequences

Science.gov (United States)

Rasch, Philip J.

2010-09-01

Scientists and society in general are becoming increasingly concerned about the risks of climate change from the emission of greenhouse gases (IPCC 2007). Yet emissions continue to increase (Raupach et al 2007), and achieving reductions soon enough to avoid large and undesirable impacts requires a near-revolutionary global transformation of energy and transportation systems (Hoffert et al 1998). The size of the transformation and lack of an effective societal response have motivated some to explore other quite controversial strategies to mitigate some of the planetary consequences of these emissions. These strategies have come to be known as geoengineering: 'the deliberate manipulation of the planetary environment to counteract anthropogenic climate change' (Keith 2000). Concern about society's inability to reduce emissions has driven a resurgence in interest in geoengineering, particularly following the call for more research in Crutzen (2006). Two classes of geoengineering solutions have developed: (1) methods to draw CO2 out of the atmosphere and sequester it in a relatively benign form; and (2) methods that change the energy flux entering or leaving the planet without modifying CO2 concentrations by, for example, changing the planetary albedo. Only the latter methods are considered here. Summaries of many of the methods, scientific questions, and issues of testing and implementation are discussed in Launder and Thompson (2009) and Royal Society (2009). The increased attention indicates that geoengineering is not a panacea and all strategies considered will have risks and consequences (e.g. Robock 2008, Trenberth and Dai 2007). Recent studies involving comprehensive Earth system models can provide insight into subtle interactions between components of the climate system. For example Rasch et al (2009) found that geoengineering by changing boundary clouds will not simultaneously 'correct' global averaged surface temperature, precipitation, and sea ice to present

Correlation between high-risk pregnancy and developmental delay ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Background: The future development of children is considered more than ever now due to the advances in medical knowledge and thus the increase in survival rates of high-risk infants. This study investigated the correlation between high-risk pregnancy and developmental delay in children aged 4- 60 months. Methods: ...

Risk Aversion and Public Reporting. Part 1: Observations From Cardiac Surgery and Interventional Cardiology.

Science.gov (United States)

Shahian, David M; Jacobs, Jeffrey P; Badhwar, Vinay; D'Agostino, Richard S; Bavaria, Joseph E; Prager, Richard L

2017-12-01

Risk aversion is a potential unintended consequence of health care public reporting. In Part 1 of this review, four possible consequences of this phenomenon are discussed, including the denial of interventions to some high-risk patients, stifling of innovation, appropriate avoidance of futile interventions, and better matching of high-risk patients to more capable providers. We also summarize relevant observational clinical reports and survey results from cardiovascular medicine and surgery, the two specialties from which almost all risk aversion observations have been derived. Although these demonstrate that risk aversion does occur, the empirical data are much more consistent and compelling for interventional cardiology than for cardiac surgery. Copyright © 2017 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

High-Risk Stress Fractures: Diagnosis and Management.

Science.gov (United States)

McInnis, Kelly C; Ramey, Lindsay N

2016-03-01

Stress fractures are common overuse injuries in athletes. They occur during periods of increased training without adequate rest, disrupting normal bone reparative mechanisms. There are a host of intrinsic and extrinsic factors, including biochemical and biomechanical, that put athletes at risk. In most stress fractures, the diagnosis is primarily clinical, with imaging indicated at times, and management focused on symptom-free relative rest with advancement of activity as tolerated. Overall, stress fractures in athletes have an excellent prognosis for return to sport, with little risk of complication. There is a subset of injuries that have a greater risk of fracture progression, delayed healing, and nonunion and are generally more challenging to treat with nonoperative care. Specific locations of high-risk stress fracture include the femoral neck (tension side), patella, anterior tibia, medial malleolus, talus, tarsal navicular, proximal fifth metatarsal, and great toe sesamoids. These sites share a characteristic region of high tensile load and low blood flow. High-risk stress fractures require a more aggressive approach to evaluation, with imaging often necessary, to confirm early and accurate diagnosis and initiate immediate treatment. Treatment consists of nonweight-bearing immobilization, often with a prolonged period away from sport, and a more methodic and careful reintroduction to athletic activity. These stress fractures may require surgical intervention. A high index of suspicion is essential to avoid delayed diagnosis and optimize outcomes in this subset of stress fractures. Copyright © 2016 American Academy of Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Pregnancy after the age of 35 as a pregnancy of high obstetric risk – the demand for education

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dominika Stobnicka

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Abstract The age is the basic factor influencing the woman's fertility. The older woman is, the biological fertility is reduced. A  woman reaches the maximum fertility at the age of 20-25 years, after which fertility gradually decreases, until the age of 35, when it drastically decreases. Late motherhood is associated with an increased risk of complications for woman and developing fetus’s health. Pregnancy after the age of 35 is considered a high-risk pregnancy since the possibility of the development of abnormalities in the functioning of the woman's body and the course of pregnancy and childbirth. The phenomenon of postponing motherhood for a time when a woman acquires a good education and a stable financial situation requires undertaking educational and information activities about the biological, psychological and social consequences of late motherhood. It is definitely better to plan maternity at the most optimal age to minimize the risk of pregnancy and health of the child complications.

Gender Matters: The Relationship between Social Anxiety and Alcohol-Related Consequences

OpenAIRE

Schry, Amie R.; Norberg, Melissa M.; Maddox, Brenna B.; White, Susan W.

2014-01-01

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Identification of risk factors for alcohol-related consequences is an important public health concern. Both gender and social anxiety have been associated with alcohol-related consequences broadly, but it is unknown whether these variables are differentially related to specific types of alcohol-related consequences for American college students. METHODS: In the present study, 573 undergraduate students (M(age) = 19.86 years, SD = 1.40; range 18 to 25; 68.9% female) ...

Analysis of risk factors for persistent infection of asymptomatic women with high-risk human papilloma virus.

Science.gov (United States)

Shi, Nianmin; Lu, Qiang; Zhang, Jiao; Li, Li; Zhang, Junnan; Zhang, Fanglei; Dong, Yanhong; Zhang, Xinyue; Zhang, Zheng; Gao, Wenhui

2017-06-03

This study aims to prevent persistentinfection, reduce the incidence of cervical cancer, and improve women's health by understanding the theoretical basis of the risk factors for continuous infection of asymptomatic women with high-risk human papilloma virus (HPV) strains via information collected, which includes the persistent infection rate and the most prevalent HPV strain types of high risk to asymptomatic women in the high-risk area of cervical cancer in Linfen, Shanxi Province. Based on the method of cluster sampling, locations were chosen from the industrial county and agricultural county of Linfen, Shanxi Province, namely the Xiangfen and Quwo counties. Use of the convenience sampling (CS) method enables the identification of women who have sex but without symptoms of abnormal cervix for analyzing risk factors of HPV-DNA detection and performing a retrospective questionnaire survey in these 2 counties. Firstly, cervical exfoliated cell samples were collected for thin-layer liquid-based cytology test (TCT), and simultaneously testing high-risk type HPV DNA, then samples with positive testing results were retested to identify the infected HPV types. The 6-month period of testing was done to derive the 6-month persistent infection rate. The retrospective survey included concepts addressed in the questionnaire: basic situation of the research objects, menstrual history, marital status, pregnancy history, sexual habits and other aspects. The questionnaire was divided into a case group and a comparison group, which are based on the high-risk HPV-DNA testing result to ascertain whether or not there is persistent infection. Statistical analysis employed Epidate3.1 software for date entry, SPSS17.0 for date statistical analysis. Select statistic charts, Chi-Square Analysis, single-factor analysis and multivariate Logistic regression analysis to analyze the protective factors and risk factors of high-risk HPV infection. Risk factors are predicted by using the

Commentary: Risk Management and Reliability Design for Buildings

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Berry, Dennis L.; Cranwell, Robert M.; Hunter, Regina L.

1999-05-28

Where there is a significant actuarial basis for decision making (e.g., the occurrence of fires in single-family dwellings), there is little incentive for formal risk management. Formal risk assessments are most useful in those cases where the value of the structure is high, many people may be affected, the societal perception of risk is high, consequences of a mishap would be severe, and the actuarial uncertainty is large. For these cases, there is little opportunity to obtain the necessary experiential data to make informed decisions, and the consequences in terms of money, lives, and societal confidence are severe enough to warrant a formal risk assessment. Other important factors include the symbolic value of the structure and vulnerability to single point failures. It is unlikely that formal risk management and assessment practices will or should replace the proven institutions of building codes and engineering practices. Nevertheless, formal risk assessment can provide valuable insights into the hazards threatening high-value and high-risk (perceived or actual) buildings and structures, which can in turn be translated into improved public health, safety, and security. The key is to choose and apply the right assessment tool to match the structure in question. Design-for-reliability concepts can be applied to buildings, bridges, transportation sys- tems, dams, and other structures. The use of these concepts could have the dual benefits of lowering life-cycle costs by reducing the necessity for maintenance and repair and of enhancing the saiiety and security of the structure's users.

Managing the risks of legacy radioactive sources from a security perspective

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alexander, Mark; Murray, Allan

2008-01-01

The safety and security risk posed by highly radioactive, long-lived sources at the end of their normal use has not been consistently well-managed in previous decades. The Brazilian Cs-137 accident in 1986 and the Thailand Co-60 accident in 2000 are prime examples of the consequences that ensue from the loss of control of highly dangerous sources after their normal use. With the new international emphasis on security of radioactive sources throughout their life cycle, there is now further incentive to address the management of risks posed by legacy, highly dangerous radioactive sources. The ANSTO South-East Asia Regional Security of Radioactive Sources (RSRS) Project has identified, and is addressing, a number of legacy situations that have arisen as a result of inadequate management practices in the past. Specific examples are provided of these legacy situations and the lessons learned for managing the consequent safety and security risk, and for future complete life-cycle management of highly radioactive sources. (author)

The Very High Risk Prostate Cancer – a Contemporary Update

Science.gov (United States)

Mano, Roy; Eastham, James; Yossepowitch, Ofer

2017-01-01

Background Treatment of high-risk prostate cancer has evolved considerably over the past two decades, yet patients with very high-risk features may still experience poor outcome despite aggressive therapy. We review the contemporary literature focusing on current definitions, role of modern imaging and treatment alternatives in very high-risk prostate cancer. Methods We searched the MEDLINE database for all clinical trials or practice guidelines published in English between 2000 – 2016 with the following search terms: ‘prostatic neoplasms’ (MeSH Terms) AND (‘high risk’ (keyword) OR ‘locally advanced’ (keyword) OR ‘node positive’ (keyword)). Abstracts pertaining to very high-risk prostate cancer were evaluated and 40 pertinent studies served as the basis for this review. Results The term ‘very’ high-risk prostate cancer remains ill defined. The EAU and NCCN guidelines provide the only available definitions, categorizing those with clinical stage T3-4 or minimal nodal involvement as very-high risk irrespective of PSA level or biopsy Gleason score. Modern imaging with mpMRI and PET-PSMA scans plays a role in pretreatment assessment. Local definitive therapy by external beam radiation combined with androgen deprivation is supported by several randomized clinical trials whereas the role of surgery in the very high-risk setting combined with adjuvant radiation/ androgen deprivation therapy is emerging. Growing evidence suggest neoadjuvant taxane based chemotherapy in the context of a multimodal approach may be beneficial. Conclusions Men with very high-risk tumors may benefit from local definitive treatment in the setting of a multimodal regimen, offering local control and possibly cure in well selected patients. Further studies are necessary to better characterize the ‘very’ high-risk category and determine the optimal therapy for the individual patient. PMID:27618950

Nutrition pathways in consequence modeling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tveten, U.

1982-01-01

During 1979-1980 calculations of risk from waste transportation by truck (fire following collision) and fire in temporary storage for waste were performed. A modified version of the consequence model of WASH-1400 (CRAC) was used. Two exposure pathways dominated the results: external exposure from material on the ground and exposure via nutrition. Many of the parameters entering into the nutrition calculations will depend upon local conditions, like soil composition, crop yield, etc. It was decided to collect detailed comments upon the CRAC nutritions model and parameter values from radioecologists in the four Nordic countries. Four alternate sets of parameter values were derived from these comments, and new risk calculations were performed

A probabilistic consequence assessment for a very high temperature reactor

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee, Joeun; Kim, Jintae; Jae, Moosung [Hanyang Univ., Seoul (Korea, Republic of). Dept. of Nuclear Engineering

2017-02-15

Currently, fossil fuel is globally running out. If current trends continue, crude oil will be depleted in 20 years and natural gas in 40 years. In addition, the use of fossil resource has increased emissions of green gas such as carbon dioxide. Therefore, there has been a strong demand in recent years for producing large amounts of hydrogen as an alternative energy [1]. To generate hydrogen energy, very high temperature more than 900 C is required but this level is not easy to reach. Because a Very High Temperature Reactor (VHTR), one of next generation reactor, is able to make the temperature, it is regarded as a solution of the problem. Also, VHTR has an excellent safety in comparison with existing and other next generation reactors. Especially, a passive system, Reactor Cavity Cooling System (RCCS), is adopted to get rid of radiant heat in case of accidents. To achieve variety requirements of new designed-reactors, however, it needs to develop new methodologies and definitions different with existing method. At the same time, an application of probability safety assessment (PSA) has been proposed to ensure the safety of next generation NPPs. For this, risk-informed designs of structures have to be developed and verified. Particularly, the passive system requires to be evaluated for its reliability. The objective of this study is to improve safety of VIITR by conducting risk profile.

The impact of risk communications on public understanding

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

O'Connor, R.E.; Bord, R.J.

1992-01-01

This paper assesses the impact of different modes of communicating information about risks that are cumulative, uncertain, and long-term (CULT). Do communications that emphasize potential ecological problems have a different impact from messages that discuss health concerns? Is a more emotional style more effective than a traditional standard approach? CULT risks, including those commonly associated with high-level radioactive waste, pose particular problems for risk communicators. nevertheless, the research shows that relatively simple risk communications can effectively lower risk estimates and reduce fears of negative consequences from CULT risks

Phenomenological consequences of supersymmetry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hinchliffe, I.; Littenberg, L.

1982-01-01

This report deals with the phenomenological consequences of supersymmetric theories, and with the implications of such theories for future high energy machines. It is concerned only with high energy predictions of supersymmetry; low energy consequences (for example in the K/sub o/anti K/sub o/ system) are discussed in the context of future experiments by another group, and will be mentioned briefly only in the context of constraining existing models. However a brief section is included on the implication for proton decay, although detailed experimental questions are not discussed. The report is organized as follows. Section I consists of a brief review of supersymmetry and the salient features of existing supersymmetric models; this section can be ignored by those familiar with such models since it contains nothing new. Section 2 deals with the consequences for nucleon decay of SUSY. The remaining sections then discuss the physics possibilities of various machines; e anti e in Section 3, ep in Section 4, pp (or anti pp) colliders in Section 5 and fixed target hadron machines in Section 6

The profile of high-risk pregnancy in El-Mansoura city.

Science.gov (United States)

Yassin, Shadia A T; Gamal El-Deen, Amany A; Emam, Mohamed A; Omer, Abeer K F

2005-01-01

Proper screening techniques should be used for all pregnant women attending antenatal clinics to pick up the factors that qualify the pregnant women for a risky pregnancy. High-risk pregnancy identification is a challenging work. This study aimed to describe the profile of high-risk pregnancy in El-Mansoura city. The study was conducted on 750 pregnant women attending antenatal clinics in three hospitals in El-Mansoura city, where 250 women were chosen from each setting. A modified version of Morrison and Olsen (1979) high risk scoring inventory tool was used to collect the socioeconomic, biological, medical, reproductive and current pregnancy risk factors in the study sample. It also assessed the risk level whether low, moderate or high. The results revealed that among all women, 63.8% of the sample were at a high-risk, while 25.0 % of them were at a moderate-risk and only 11.2% were at low-risk. About 70.0% of the high-risk pregnant women were in their third trimester followed by 23.0% in the second trimester and only 7.1% were in the first trimester. About 5.9% of the women were at a high-risk because of polluted housing condition, 1.9% because of heart diseases Class capital I, Ukrainian or II, 5.2% because of diabetes mellitus, 4.2% because of hypertension and 14.9% because of previous cesarean section. On the other hand 14.8% women were at moderate risk because of their illiteracy, 29.2% of them for being short, 14.7%, 10.6% of them because of being teenagers or over 35 years of age, respectively, 12.6% of because they had a history of gestational diabetes and 32.8%of them because of anemia, 23.2% because urinary tract infection, 16.9% because of albuminuria, and 12.0% because of glucoseuria. Finally identifying the profile of high -risk pregnancy women is mandatory.

Establishing a Program for Individuals at High Risk for Breast Cancer

Science.gov (United States)

Cadiz, Fernando; Kuerer, Henry M.; Puga, Julio; Camacho, Jamile; Cunill, Eduardo; Arun, Banu

2013-01-01

Our need to create a program for individuals at high risk for breast cancer development led us to research the available data on such programs. In this paper, we summarize our findings and our thinking process as we developed our own program. Breast cancer incidence is increasing worldwide. Even though there are known risk factors for breast cancer development, approximately 60% of patients with breast cancer have no known risk factor, although this situation will probably change with further research, especially in genetics. For patients with risk factors based on personal or family history, different models are available for assessing and quantifying risk. Assignment of risk levels permits tailored screening and risk reduction strategies. Potential benefits of specialized programs for women with high breast cancer risk include more cost -effective interventions as a result of patient stratification on the basis of risk; generation of valuable data to advance science; and differentiation of breast programs from other breast cancer units, which can result in increased revenue that can be directed to further improvements in patient care. Guidelines for care of patients at high risk for breast cancer are available from various groups. However, running a high-risk breast program involves much more than applying a guideline. Each high-risk program needs to be designed by its institution with consideration of local resources and country legislation, especially related to genetic issues. Development of a successful high-risk program includes identifying strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats; developing a promotion plan; choosing a risk assessment tool; defining “high risk”; and planning screening and risk reduction strategies for the specific population served by the program. The information in this article may be useful for other institutions considering creation of programs for patients with high breast cancer risk. PMID:23833688

Polycystic ovarian syndrome (PCOS): Long-term metabolic consequences.

Science.gov (United States)

Anagnostis, Panagiotis; Tarlatzis, Basil C; Kauffman, Robert P

2017-10-10

Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) is the most common endocrine disorder in women during their reproductive ages, associated with a plethora of cardiometabolic consequences, with obesity, insulin resistance and hyperandrogenemia playing a major role in the degree of such manifestations. These consequences include increased risk of glucose intolerance and diabetes mellitus (both type 2 and gestational), atherogenic dyslipidemia, systemic inflammation, non-alcoholic fatty liver disease, hypertension and coagulation disorders. Whether this cluster of metabolic abnormalities is also translated in increased cardiovascular disease (CVD) morbidity and mortality in later life, remains to be established. Data so far based on markers of subclinical atherosclerosis as well as retrospective and prospective cohort studies indicate a possible increased CVD risk, mainly for coronary heart disease. Future studies are needed to further elucidate this issue. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Drug response prediction in high-risk multiple myeloma

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Vangsted, A J; Helm-Petersen, S; Cowland, J B

2018-01-01

from high-risk patients by GEP70 at diagnosis from Total Therapy 2 and 3A to predict the response by the DRP score of drugs used in the treatment of myeloma patients. The DRP score stratified patients further. High-risk myeloma with a predicted sensitivity to melphalan by the DRP score had a prolonged...

[Patterns of alcohol consumption in France and their medical and social consequences as seen through the family circle and friends and general practitioners].

Science.gov (United States)

Hoertel, N; Crochard, A; Rouillon, F; Limosin, F

2014-04-01

Data on the frequency of high-risk alcohol consumption and its medical and social consequences in the French general population remain fragmented. Therefore, our aim was two-fold: (i) to assess the prevalence of different patterns of alcohol consumption using the AUDIT-C scale, according to two different perspectives, i.e., that of family circle members or friends, and that of the general practitioners (GPs), and (ii) to examine the prevalence of medical and social consequences associated with alcohol consumption profiles. Data were drawn from two national surveys conducted in 2013. Investigators were respectively GPs and family circle members or friends. These surveys were respectively representative of GPs (n=1308) and of the general adult population (n=1018). The 12-month prevalence rates of harmful or at risk alcohol consumption rose respectively to 11.1% in the GPs adult patients and to 11.9% in the general adult population. The majority of participants with "at risk" alcohol consumption presented with significant social and medical consequences. Thus, more than seven out of ten participants with chronic at risk consumption endorsed significant negative social event potentially associated with alcohol like withdrawal of driving licence, getting divorced or separated, and losing friends. Over 10% of these participants had liver disease and diabetes mellitus, more than 30% increased blood pressure and nearly 50% anxiety disorder or major depression. Following adjustments for sociodemographic characteristics and alcohol treatment, prevalences of numerous social and medical consequences significantly differed between alcohol-dependent participants, chronic at risk consumers and episodic at risk consumers. Our results suggest that more than one adult out of ten in France showed during the past year harmful or "at risk" alcohol consumption, which appears insufficiently detected and treated. In addition, the majority of at risk alcohol consumers already presents with

Unlicensed driving and other related health risk behaviors: a study of Montana high school students.

Science.gov (United States)

Hanna, Christian L; Laflamme, Lucie; Elling, Berty; Möller, Jette

2013-05-01

Health risk behaviors tend to cluster in young people, not least among young drivers. Less is known about the health risk profile of young unlicensed drivers. This study investigates health risk behaviors among young unlicensed drivers compared to both their licensed and driving peers, and their non-driving peers. High school students participating in the Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System in Montana (US) and age-eligible to have a driver's license were studied (n=5985), categorized according to their self-reported car driving and license practice (licensed driving, unlicensed driving, and non-driving). Ten health risk behaviors, of which four were related to car riding/driving, were considered. Multinomial logistic regression was used to compile sex-specific odds ratios (with 95% confidence intervals) of adopting those behaviors using licensed drivers as a reference and adjusting for age and race/ethnicity. Health risk behaviors tended to be more common among unlicensed drivers than other groups, although some behaviors were prevalent in all groups (i.e., alcohol use and lack of seat belt use). As a consequence, for both male and female students, there was a significant association between unlicensed driving and most health risk behaviors, except for being involved in a physical fight and riding with a drinking driver among female students. Young unlicensed drivers are more likely than licensed drivers to adopt several health risk behaviors both in car driving/riding or otherwise, in particular alcohol use and cigarette smoking. This challenges any simplistic approach as unlicensed driving in youth is not an isolated act suggesting public health and traffic safety initiatives. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

High-Risk Organizations. Resilience And Safety; Organizaciones de alto riesgo. Resiliencia y Seguridad

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sola, R.; Sora, B.

2007-07-01

The growing social demand that took place during the second half of the 20th Century brought fast development of complex technologies. These technologies generated new risks, that together with the lack of prevention methodologies increased the amount of incidents and accidents; for example, Bhopal (1984), Chernobyl (1986), Tokaimura (1999), Columbia (2003), Prestige (2002). In order to prevent these tragic events, several knowledge models were developed. These were oriented to analyze the causes of accidents and to obtain the necessary learning to avoid the production of these types of accidents. Consequently, this reactive approach allowed the implementation of corrective measures but not the anticipation or prevention of these undesirable events. The need to prevent such events has prompted a new approach, which does not only identify causes but also reasons, contexts and organizational behaviours in new situations. This new approach is known as engineering resilience. Its aim is to promote that socio-technical systems use all their capabilities and to be able to deploy new capacities in order to adapt to unexpected situations far from unacceptable limits of risk. Thus, high reliability organizations can continue their production in a safe way. (Author) 44 refs.

Seroepidemiological Study of Brucellosis in High Risk Groups in Boyerahmad 1384

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

AM Khosravani

2007-01-01

Full Text Available ABSTRACT: Introduction & Objective: Brucellosis is a zoonotic disease that may have a major public health and economic impact in most countries. The disease appears as a Malt fever in humans and abortion in animals. This study was designed to determine the serologic titer of Brucella in high risk and non high risk people in Boyerahmad. Materials & Methods: A retrospective seroepidemiological study was performed on samples collected from 604 high risk and non high risk people using Rose Bengol test, tube standard test as a rapid test and 2 mercaptoethanol (2ME and comb's wright as a confirmatory test. The data collected were analyzed by X2 test via SPSS. Results: Seroprevalence of Brucellosis in high risk people appeared to be high in the Rose Bengal and tube standard test (TST 6.62 at titer ≥1/40 whereas for non high risk it was 0%. Confirmation test in high risk people was shown with 2ME in four people. Conclusion: Brucellosis is a major cause of disease in high risk people which can be due to direct or indirect contact with diary products of the related animals.

The risks of risk aversion in drug regulation.

Science.gov (United States)

Eichler, Hans-Georg; Bloechl-Daum, Brigitte; Brasseur, Daniel; Breckenridge, Alasdair; Leufkens, Hubert; Raine, June; Salmonson, Tomas; Schneider, Christian K; Rasi, Guido

2013-12-01

Drugs are approved by regulatory agencies on the basis of their assessment of whether the available evidence indicates that the benefits of the drug outweigh its risks. In recent years, regulatory agencies have been criticized both for being overly tolerant of risks or being excessively risk-averse, which reflects the challenge in determining an appropriate balance between benefit and risk with the limited data that is typically available before drug approval. The negative consequences of regulatory tolerance in allowing drugs onto the market that turn out to be unsafe are obvious, but the potential for adverse effects on public health owing to the absence of new drugs because of regulatory risk-aversion is less apparent. Here, we discuss the consequences of regulatory risk-aversion for public health and suggest what might be done to best align acceptance of risk and uncertainty by regulators with the interests of public health.

Required Market Risk Premium among countries in 2012

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pablo Fernandez

2015-12-01

This survey also links with the Equity Premium Puzzle. It may be explained by the fact that many market participants use historical data and advice from textbooks and finance professors. Consequently, ex-ante equity premia have been high, most market prices have been consistently undervalued, and the ex-post risk premia has been also high. Many investors use historical data and textbook prescriptions to estimate the required and the expected equity premium, the undervaluation and the high ex-post risk premium are self fulfilling prophecies.

Unraveling the disease consequences and mechanisms of modular structure in animal social networks

Science.gov (United States)

Sah, Pratha; Leu, Stephan T.; Cross, Paul C.; Hudson, Peter J.; Bansal, Shweta

2017-01-01

Disease risk is a potential cost of group living. Although modular organization is thought to reduce this cost in animal societies, empirical evidence toward this hypothesis has been conflicting. We analyzed empirical social networks from 43 animal species to motivate our study of the epidemiological consequences of modular structure in animal societies. From these empirical studies, we identified the features of interaction patterns associated with network modularity and developed a theoretical network model to investigate when and how subdivisions in social networks influence disease dynamics. Contrary to prior work, we found that disease risk is largely unaffected by modular structure, although social networks beyond a modular threshold experience smaller disease burden and longer disease duration. Our results illustrate that the lowering of disease burden in highly modular social networks is driven by two mechanisms of modular organization: network fragmentation and subgroup cohesion. Highly fragmented social networks with cohesive subgroups are able to structurally trap infections within a few subgroups and also cause a structural delay to the spread of disease outbreaks. Finally, we show that network models incorporating modular structure are necessary only when prior knowledge suggests that interactions within the population are highly subdivided. Otherwise, null networks based on basic knowledge about group size and local contact heterogeneity may be sufficient when data-limited estimates of epidemic consequences are necessary. Overall, our work does not support the hypothesis that modular structure universally mitigates the disease impact of group living.

Consequences of a hypothetical incident for different sectors

CERN Document Server

Bertinelli, F; Garion, C; Jimenez, J M; Parma, V; Perin, A; Schmidt, R; Tavian, L; Tock, J P; van Weelderen, R

2011-01-01

During the 2009 long shutdown, the LHC machine has been partially consolidated by adding safety relief devices in order to better protect the cryostats against large helium release and consequently to mitigate the risks of collateral damages. After recalling the present relief valve implementation and other mitigations related to the collateral damages, this paper describes the damage process of a hypothetical incident, presents its consequences for the different sectors and for beam energies up to 5 TeV with emphasis on the induced downtime.

People at High Risk of Developing Flu-Related Complications

Science.gov (United States)

... Influenza Types Seasonal Avian Swine Variant Pandemic Other People at High Risk of Developing Flu–Related Complications ... related complications if they get sick with influenza. People at High Risk for Developing Flu-Related Complications ...

Diagnostic accuracy of high-definition CT coronary angiography in high-risk patients

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Iyengar, S.S.; Morgan-Hughes, G.; Ukoumunne, O.; Clayton, B.; Davies, E.J.; Nikolaou, V.; Hyde, C.J.; Shore, A.C.; Roobottom, C.A.

2016-01-01

Aim: To assess the diagnostic accuracy of computed tomography coronary angiography (CTCA) using a combination of high-definition CT (HD-CTCA) and high level of reader experience, with invasive coronary angiography (ICA) as the reference standard, in high-risk patients for the investigation of coronary artery disease (CAD). Materials and methods: Three hundred high-risk patients underwent HD-CTCA and ICA. Independent experts evaluated the images for the presence of significant CAD, defined primarily as the presence of moderate (≥50%) stenosis and secondarily as the presence of severe (≥70%) stenosis in at least one coronary segment, in a blinded fashion. HD-CTCA was compared to ICA as the reference standard. Results: No patients were excluded. Two hundred and six patients (69%) had moderate and 178 (59%) had severe stenosis in at least one vessel at ICA. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value were 97.1%, 97.9%, 99% and 93.9% for moderate stenosis, and 98.9%, 93.4%, 95.7% and 98.3%, for severe stenosis, on a per-patient basis. Conclusion: The combination of HD-CTCA and experienced readers applied to a high-risk population, results in high diagnostic accuracy comparable to ICA. Modern generation CT systems in experienced hands might be considered for an expanded role. - Highlights: • Diagnostic accuracy of High-Definition CT Angiography (HD-CTCA) has been assessed. • Invasive Coronary angiography (ICA) is the reference standard. • Diagnostic accuracy of HD-CTCA is comparable to ICA. • Diagnostic accuracy is not affected by coronary calcium or stents. • HD-CTCA provides a non-invasive alternative in high-risk patients.

Risk perception versus seismic risk: An introduction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cubeddu, Francesca

2015-01-01

A seismic event generally has consequences on the social relationships, economy and culture of the impacted territory. As Mary Douglas quotes, a change into the social perception of risk as consequence of an earthquake may have effects on the lifestyle of the local community. The above mentioned statement is the starting point of this article. illustrating the difference between peril and risk is the second point. According to the Aristotelian theory of categories, risk can be considered as a human characteristic depending on social and cultural factors. Risk is here intended as a social category and cannot be de facto reported as a statistical or stochastic function based on a mathematical formula, as long assumed in the past. This approach, then, requires a deep revision. In this sense, and following the concept of risk perception, seismic risk is analysed in this article in terms of impacts, precautionary measures, risk assessment and management. Knowledge of this topic cannot be intended as a simple philosophical exercise, since right on awareness depend risk reduction, humans and goods too [it

The clinical profile of high-risk mentally disordered offenders.

Science.gov (United States)

Yiend, Jenny; Freestone, Mark; Vazquez-Montes, Maria; Holland, Josephine; Burns, Tom

2013-07-01

High-risk mentally disordered offenders present a diverse array of clinical characteristics. To contain and effectively treat this heterogeneous population requires a full understanding of the group's clinical profile. This study aimed to identify and validate clusters of clinically coherent profiles within one high-risk mentally disordered population in the UK. Latent class analysis (a statistical technique to identify clustering of variance from a set of categorical variables) was applied to 174 cases using clinical diagnostic information to identify the most parsimonious model of best fit. Validity analyses were performed. Three identified classes were a 'delinquent' group (n = 119) characterised by poor educational history, strong criminal careers and high recidivism risk; a 'primary psychopathy' group (n = 38) characterised by good educational profiles and homicide offences and an 'expressive psychopathy' group (n = 17) presenting the lowest risk and characterised by more special educational needs and sexual offences. Individuals classed as high-risk mentally disordered offenders can be loosely segregated into three discrete subtypes: 'delinquent', 'psychopathic' or 'expressive psychopathic', respectively. These groups represent different levels of risk to society and reflect differing treatment needs.

Personal, social and environmental risk factors of problematic gambling among high school adolescents in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

Science.gov (United States)

Abdi, Tariku A; Ruiter, Robert A C; Adal, Tamirie A

2015-03-01

Understanding risk factors of problematic gambling is prerequisite to effective intervention design to alleviate the negative consequences of gambling. This study explored the personal, social and environmental risk factors of problematic gambling in four high schools in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, among students (N = 422) ranging from 12 to 21 years of age. Results from the cross-sectional survey showed that personal feelings (e.g., self-esteem, false perceptions about winning, drug abuse), social factors (e.g., peer influence, parental gambling), and environmental factors (e.g., accessibility of gambling venues, advertisements) were significant correlates of problematic gambling. The study also revealed that men were more at risk for severe problematic gambling than females. Among the identified types of gambling activities, the most prevalent ones were playing cards followed by flipping coin and pool gambling while internet gambling was among the least reported gambling activities. By identifying personal, social and environmental correlates of risky gambling activities this study provides evidence-based information for the systematic design and evaluation of educational interventions to prevent problematic gambling in young people.

Carotid Stenting in Patients With High Risk Versus Standard Risk for Open Carotid Endarterectomy (REAL-1 Trial).

Science.gov (United States)

De Haro, Joaquin; Michel, Ignacio; Bleda, Silvia; Cañibano, Cristina; Acin, Francisco

2017-07-15

Carotid stenting (CAS) has been mainly offered to those patients considered at "high risk" for open carotid endarterectomy based on available data from large randomized clinical trials. However, several recent studies have called medical "high risk" into question for CAS indication. The REAL-1 trial evaluated the safety and perioperative and long-term effectiveness in patients with significant carotid artery stenosis with "high-risk" criteria treated with CAS and proximal protection device (MOMA) compared with those with standard surgical-risk features. This nonrandomized double-arm registry included 125 patients (40% symptomatic), 71 (56%) with "standard-risk" and 54 (44%) with "high-risk" criteria. The primary end point was the cumulative incidence of any major adverse event, a composite of stroke, myocardial infarction, and death within 30 days after the intervention or ipsilateral stroke after 30 days and up to 4 years. There was no significant difference in primary end point rate at 30 days between patients at "standard risk" and those with "high risk" (1.4% vs 1.9% respectively; hazard ratio for "standard risk" 1.1; 95% CI 0.8 to 1.2, p = 0.77) nor estimated 4-year rate of ipsilateral stroke (1.3% vs 1.8%; hazard ratio for "standard risk" 1.05, 95% CI 0.86 to 1.14, p = 0.9). In conclusion, 4-year postprocedure results demonstrated that CAS with proximal device (MOMA) is safe and effective for patients with and without "high-risk" for carotid endarterectomy. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predicting reattendance at a high-risk breast cancer clinic.

Science.gov (United States)

Ormseth, Sarah R; Wellisch, David K; Aréchiga, Adam E; Draper, Taylor L

2015-10-01

The research about follow-up patterns of women attending high-risk breast-cancer clinics is sparse. This study sought to profile daughters of breast-cancer patients who are likely to return versus those unlikely to return for follow-up care in a high-risk clinic. Our investigation included 131 patients attending the UCLA Revlon Breast Center High Risk Clinic. Predictor variables included age, computed breast-cancer risk, participants' perceived personal risk, clinically significant depressive symptomatology (CES-D score ≥ 16), current level of anxiety (State-Trait Anxiety Inventory), and survival status of participants' mothers (survived or passed away from breast cancer). A greater likelihood of reattendance was associated with older age (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 1.07, p = 0.004), computed breast-cancer risk (AOR = 1.10, p = 0.017), absence of depressive symptomatology (AOR = 0.25, p = 0.009), past psychiatric diagnosis (AOR = 3.14, p = 0.029), and maternal loss to breast cancer (AOR = 2.59, p = 0.034). Also, an interaction was found between mother's survival and perceived risk (p = 0.019), such that reattendance was associated with higher perceived risk among participants whose mothers survived (AOR = 1.04, p = 0.002), but not those whose mothers died (AOR = 0.99, p = 0.685). Furthermore, a nonlinear inverted "U" relationship was observed between state anxiety and reattendance (p = 0.037); participants with moderate anxiety were more likely to reattend than those with low or high anxiety levels. Demographic, medical, and psychosocial factors were found to be independently associated with reattendance to a high-risk breast-cancer clinic. Explication of the profiles of women who may or may not reattend may serve to inform the development and implementation of interventions to increase the likelihood of follow-up care.

Linking masculinity to negative drinking consequences: the mediating roles of heavy episodic drinking and alcohol expectancies.

Science.gov (United States)

Wells, Samantha; Flynn, Andrea; Tremblay, Paul F; Dumas, Tara; Miller, Peter; Graham, Kathryn

2014-05-01

This study extends previous research on masculinity and negative drinking consequences among young men by considering mediating effects of heavy episodic drinking (HED) and alcohol expectancies. We hypothesized that masculinity would have a direct relationship with negative consequences from drinking as well as indirect relationships mediated by HED and alcohol expectancies of courage, risk, and aggression. A random sample of 1,436 college and university men ages 19-25 years completed an online survey, including conformity to masculine norms, alcohol-related expectancies, HED, and negative drinking consequences. Regression analyses and structural equation modeling were used. Six of seven dimensions of masculinity and the alcohol expectancy scales were significantly associated with both HED and negative consequences. In multivariate regression models predicting HED and negative consequences, the playboy and violence dimensions of masculinity and the risk/aggression alcohol expectancy remained significant. HED and the risk-taking dimension of masculinity were also significant in the model predicting negative consequences. The structural equation model indicated that masculinity was directly associated with HED and negative consequences but also influenced negative consequences indirectly through HED and alcohol expectancies. The findings suggest that, among young adult male college and university students, masculinity is an important factor related to both HED and drinking consequences, with the latter effect partly mediated by HED and alcohol expectancies. Addressing male norms about masculinity may help to reduce HED and negative consequences from drinking.

Relationship between Background Parenchymal Enhancement on High-risk Screening MRI and Future Breast Cancer Risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Grimm, Lars J; Saha, Ashirbani; Ghate, Sujata V; Kim, Connie; Soo, Mary Scott; Yoon, Sora C; Mazurowski, Maciej A

2018-03-27

To determine if background parenchymal enhancement (BPE) on screening breast magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in high-risk women correlates with future cancer. All screening breast MRIs (n = 1039) in high-risk women at our institution from August 1, 2004, to July 30, 2013, were identified. Sixty-one patients who subsequently developed breast cancer were matched 1:2 by age and high-risk indication with patients who did not develop breast cancer (n = 122). Five fellowship-trained breast radiologists independently recorded the BPE. The median reader BPE for each case was calculated and compared between the cancer and control cohorts. Cancer cohort patients were high-risk because of a history of radiation therapy (10%, 6 of 61), high-risk lesion (18%, 11 of 61), or breast cancer (30%, 18 of 61); BRCA mutation (18%, 11 of 61); or family history (25%, 15 of 61). Subsequent malignancies were invasive ductal carcinoma (64%, 39 of 61), ductal carcinoma in situ (30%, 18 of 61) and invasive lobular carcinoma (7%, 4of 61). BPE was significantly higher in the cancer cohort than in the control cohort (P = 0.01). Women with mild, moderate, or marked BPE were 2.5 times more likely to develop breast cancer than women with minimal BPE (odds ratio = 2.5, 95% confidence interval: 1.3-4.8, P = .005). There was fair interreader agreement (κ = 0.39). High-risk women with greater than minimal BPE at screening MRI have increased risk of future breast cancer. Copyright © 2018 The Association of University Radiologists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Occupational diseases in the Netherlands: incidence, type, consequences and risk factors: abstract and presentation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Venema, A.; Steenbeek, R.; Dam, L. van; Vroome, E. de

2017-01-01

Objectives: Occupational diseases are common and result in a substantial disease burden and high sickness absence. Reliable data on the incidence and a better understanding of the risk factors will help to develop preventive measures. Methods: Several sources of measuring occupational diseases were

Framework for Modeling High-Impact, Low-Frequency Power Grid Events to Support Risk-Informed Decisions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Veeramany, Arun; Unwin, Stephen D.; Coles, Garill A.; Dagle, Jeffery E.; Millard, W. David; Yao, Juan; Glantz, Clifford S.; Gourisetti, Sri Nikhil Gup

2015-12-03

Natural and man-made hazardous events resulting in loss of grid infrastructure assets challenge the electric power grid’s security and resilience. However, the planning and allocation of appropriate contingency resources for such events requires an understanding of their likelihood and the extent of their potential impact. Where these events are of low likelihood, a risk-informed perspective on planning can be problematic as there exists an insufficient statistical basis to directly estimate the probabilities and consequences of their occurrence. Since risk-informed decisions rely on such knowledge, a basis for modeling the risk associated with high-impact low frequency events (HILFs) is essential. Insights from such a model can inform where resources are most rationally and effectively expended. The present effort is focused on development of a HILF risk assessment framework. Such a framework is intended to provide the conceptual and overarching technical basis for the development of HILF risk models that can inform decision makers across numerous stakeholder sectors. The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) 2014 Standard TPL-001-4 considers severe events for transmission reliability planning, but does not address events of such severity that they have the potential to fail a substantial fraction of grid assets over a region, such as geomagnetic disturbances (GMD), extreme seismic events, and coordinated cyber-physical attacks. These are beyond current planning guidelines. As noted, the risks associated with such events cannot be statistically estimated based on historic experience; however, there does exist a stable of risk modeling techniques for rare events that have proven of value across a wide range of engineering application domains. There is an active and growing interest in evaluating the value of risk management techniques in the State transmission planning and emergency response communities, some of this interest in the context of

Man, technology and risk: a study on intuitive risk assessment and attitudes towards nuclear energy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Renn, O

1981-06-01

Using the instruments of empirical social sciences, a cross-section study was conducted comprising experiments on qualitative risk characteristics, in-depth interviews on mechanisms of risk perception and representative surveys of the public on technical risk sources, in particular with regard to nuclear energy. The results of these studies show that person-related expectations in respect of risk consequences, the possibility of personal influencing control, the severeness of risk consequences and one's own risk propensity play a significant role in the evaluation of risks.

[High-grade pressure sores in frail older high-risk persons. A retrospective postmortem case-control-study].

Science.gov (United States)

Von Renteln-Kruse, W; Krause, T; Anders, J; Kühl, M; Heinemann, A; Püschel, K

2004-04-01

Some old persons at risk do develop, but others, at comparable risk, do not develop high-grade pressure sores. To evaluate potentially different risk factors, we performed a post mortem case-control study in old persons who developed high-grade pressure sores within six months until 14 days before death. Consecutive cases with pressure sores grade >/=3 and potential controls at comparably high risk for pressure sores were examined before cremation. After written informed consent had been obtained by the next relatives, all available nursing and medical records of the deceased were thoroughly evaluated. Cases and controls were matched according to age, gender, immobility, and cachexia.A total of 100 cases with 71 pressure sores grade 3 and 29 pressure sores grade 4 were compared to 100 controls with 27 pressure sores grade pressure sores in frail older high-risk persons. Sedative drug effects and impaired patient compliance with preventive and therapeutic measures may also be associated with the development of high-grade pressure sores in old persons at high risk.

Consequence Analysis of the MHTGR and PBMR

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jeong, Jong Tae; Yang, Joon Eon; Lee, Won Jae

2006-01-01

The probabilistic safety assessment of the VHTR design provides a systematic analysis to identify and quantify all risks that the plant imposes to the operators, general public, and the environment and thus demonstrates compliance to regulatory risk criteria. During the preliminary conceptual design of VHTR in Korea, both block- and pebble type-fuel are considered. Therefore, the consequence analysis of VHTR using both types of fuel were made in order to obtain the basic insights for the classification of events and the formation of the PSA framework of the VHTR

EMF and risk perception

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Widemann, P.M.; Schuetz, H.

1995-01-01

There has lately been a greater responsivement in the media as well as the general public to the risk potential of high-frequency electromagnetic fields (EMF). If the discussion continues to gain momentum, this could have grave consequences for companies offering the products or services under attack. The working group Man, Environment, Technology (MUT) at Juelich Research Centre has examined the question of how EMF risks are valuated by the public. The study centered on the following questions: How are EMF risk potentials perceived by the public and what factors influence the public discussion? What future course might the discussion on risks take and what critical events and conditions deserve particular attention? The authors present and discuss the results of this first German study on product-inherent risks. (orig.) [de

High Framingham risk score decreases quality of life in adults

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christian Yosaputra

2010-04-01

Full Text Available Cardiovascular disease (CVD risk factors, such as diabetes, hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, smoking, and obesity tend to occur together in the general population. Increasing prevalence of multiple CVD risk factors has been related to increased risk of death from coronary heart disease and stroke. Studies have suggested that people with several risk factors of CVD may have impaired health-related quality of life. The objective of this study was to assess the association of CVD risk factors with quality of life (QOL among adults aged 40 to 65 years. A cross-sectional study was conducted involving 220 subjects 40 - 65 years of age at a health center. The CVD risk factors were assessed using the Framingham risk score that is the standard instrument for assessment of the risk of a first cardiac event. The risk factors assessed were age, smoking, blood pressure, total cholesterol and high density lipoprotein cholesterol concentrations. QOL was assessed by means of the WHOQOL-BREF instrument that had been prevalidated. The results of the study showed that 28.2% of subjects were smokers, 56.4% had stage 1 hypertension, 42.8% high total cholesterol and 13.6% low HDL cholesterol. The high risk group amounted to 45.5% and 42.3% constitued an intermediate risk group. High CVD risk scores were significantly associated with a low QOL for all domains (physical, psychological, social and environment (p=0.000. Preventing or reducing the multiple CVD risk factors to improve QOL is necessary among adults.

Clinical consequences of sensitisation in affective disorder

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kessing, L V; Mortensen, P B; Bolwig, T G

1998-01-01

Clinically derived measures of the initial course of episodes might reflect a process of sensitisation in affective disorder. However, the clinical consequences of such measures have not been investigated. The predictive effect of measures of the initial course of episodes was investigated...... period between initial episodes of the illness, reflecting a great intensity of illness, predicted increased risk of subsequent development of dementia, and for unipolar patients, decreased risk of subsequent alcoholism. Surprisingly, a progressive course, with decreasing intervals between initial...... episodes of the illness, had no predictive effect. Similarly, no predictive effects on the risk of death or suicidal acts could be demonstrated with any measure of the initial course of episodes....

[Violence and health. Symptoms, consequences and treatment of victimized patients].

Science.gov (United States)

Habel, Ute; Wagels, Lisa; Ellendt, Sinika; Scheller, Maryse; Evler, Aynur; Bergs, René; Clemens, Benjamin; Pütz, Annette; Kohn, Nils; Schneider, Frank

2016-01-01

Violence has many faces and often results in a variety of consequences. Some studies indicated different types of violence and health consequences in men and women. However, it is still unclear whether this is reflected in clinical context, for example in a patient sample of a German university hospital. The primary goal of the present study was to analyze associations of violence with health, gender and social, economic, job-related, psychological and physical consequences. In addition, the effects of psychological treatment were examined. One line of research refers to the survey of more than 5000 patients of the university hospital Aachen, evaluating violence experience and several health complaints anonymously. Another line of research deals with detailed interviews with victims of violence and their experienced consequences. A final data source stems from the evaluation of psychological counseling of patients with prior experience of violence. Changes in subjectively perceived depressive symptoms and acceptance of the treatment are evaluated. Experience of violence increases the risk for several health problems, especially the experience of multiple types of violence. The interviews showed that more than 60% of the victims had a clinical diagnosis--independent of sex. The risk for a clinical diagnosis increased with multiple violence experiences during childhood. Patients with a clinical diagnosis indicated more subjective consequences of violence, and consequences of violence were more pronounced in patients that experienced multiple types of violence. The good acceptance as well as the effects on symptomatology and other relevant therapeutic variables provides a first indication for a successful treatment of victims of violence in a clinical context.

Consequences of actively managing a small Bull Trout population in a fragmented landscape

Science.gov (United States)

Al-Chokhachy, Robert K.; Moran, Sean; McHugh, Peter; Bernall, Shana; Fredenberg, Wade; DosSantos, Joseph M.

2015-01-01

Habitat fragmentation, which affects many native salmonid species, is one of the major factors contributing to the declines in distribution and abundance of Bull Trout Salvelinus confluentus. Increasingly, managers are considering options to maintain and enhance the persistence of isolated local populations through active management strategies. Understanding the ecological consequences of such actions is a necessary step in conservation planning. We used an individual-based model to evaluate the consequences of an ongoing management program aimed at mitigating the anthropogenic fragmentation of the lower Clark Fork River in Montana. Under this program juvenile Bull Trout are trapped and transported from small, headwater source populations to Lake Pend Oreille, Idaho, for rearing, and adults are subsequently recaptured in their upstream migration and returned to the natal population for spawning. We examined one of these populations and integrated empirical estimates of demographic parameters to simulate different management scenarios where moderate (n = 4) and high (n = 8) numbers of age-2, age-3, or age-4 Bull Trout were removed for transport with variable return rates under both demographic stochasticity and environmental perturbations. Our results indicated the risks from removal with no returns increased substantially when removal totals and age of Bull Trout removed from the simulated population increased. Specifically, removing eight age-3 or age-4 individuals resulted in 26% and 62% reductions in average adult population size, respectively, across simulations. We found the risks of transport were not likely alleviated with low (3%) or moderate (6%) return rates, and there were considerable risks of declines for the source population even when return rates were extremely high (>12%). Our simulations indicated little risk of declines for the source population with removals of age-2 Bull Trout, and any risks were alleviated with low return rates. However, we

The Belgian Risk Perception Barometer Risk Perception Measuring Instruments Revisited

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aeken, Koen van; Carle, Benny; Hardeman, Frank

2006-01-01

The recognition of the societal dimension of risk assessment has been at the cradle of the opinion research on risks. Since risk estimates are not fixed by experts anymore, but are considered to show variation across a diverse population, the people themselves must be asked how they experience the risks. Following the rise in popularity of risk assessment and the recognition of its 'human' dimension, the demand for public opinion surveys on risks has been increasing at a fast pace. Unfortunately, this high demand sees some negative consequences. First, surveys are frequently conducted by people lacking even a minimal knowledge of survey methodology. In this respect, we might think of a journal or a newspaper trying to impress their readers with the definitive public opinion poll about the latest issue in vogue. Second, time pressure causes experienced or trained researchers to lower themselves to 'quick and dirty' work. While methodologically flawed opinion research might not be something to worry about when appearing in the amusement press, concern is due if the results of a survey inspire policy development. Indeed, when public opinion research is conceived as an instrument to support rational, evidence based public policy, the strictest methodological standards should be applied, even if it is clear that scientific research will never substitute political reasoning. This contribution deals with the safeguarding and enhancing of the quality of large scale surveys focusing on risk perception and related issues. This attention is relevant, not only for the reason that methodological standards may be flawed due to the immense popularity of the opinion poll, but also because the results of opinion surveys may have far-reaching policy consequences

The Belgian Risk Perception Barometer Risk Perception Measuring Instruments Revisited

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Aeken, Koen van; Carle, Benny; Hardeman, Frank [SCK-CEN, Mol (Belgium). PISA

2006-09-15

The recognition of the societal dimension of risk assessment has been at the cradle of the opinion research on risks. Since risk estimates are not fixed by experts anymore, but are considered to show variation across a diverse population, the people themselves must be asked how they experience the risks. Following the rise in popularity of risk assessment and the recognition of its 'human' dimension, the demand for public opinion surveys on risks has been increasing at a fast pace. Unfortunately, this high demand sees some negative consequences. First, surveys are frequently conducted by people lacking even a minimal knowledge of survey methodology. In this respect, we might think of a journal or a newspaper trying to impress their readers with the definitive public opinion poll about the latest issue in vogue. Second, time pressure causes experienced or trained researchers to lower themselves to 'quick and dirty' work. While methodologically flawed opinion research might not be something to worry about when appearing in the amusement press, concern is due if the results of a survey inspire policy development. Indeed, when public opinion research is conceived as an instrument to support rational, evidence based public policy, the strictest methodological standards should be applied, even if it is clear that scientific research will never substitute political reasoning. This contribution deals with the safeguarding and enhancing of the quality of large scale surveys focusing on risk perception and related issues. This attention is relevant, not only for the reason that methodological standards may be flawed due to the immense popularity of the opinion poll, but also because the results of opinion surveys may have far-reaching policy consequences.

A Strategic Risk Management Framework for Multinational Enterprise

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Juul Andersen, Torben

2005-01-01

and economic risks that can be monitored within conventional reporting systems and managed through use of various derivative instruments. All the while, a dispersed multinational structure can be vulnerable to disruptions caused by changing economic conditions, competitive moves, and geopolitical developments......-frequency high-impact disaster events based on scenario analyses. Hence, there is a need to consider risk management approaches that integrate relatively transparent financial exposures with the consequences of uncertain and hard-to-quantify event risks. This paper outlines the contours of such a strategic risk...

The Affective Bases of Risk Perception: Negative Feelings and Stress Mediate the Relationship between Mental Imagery and Risk Perception.

Science.gov (United States)

Sobkow, Agata; Traczyk, Jakub; Zaleskiewicz, Tomasz

2016-01-01

Recent research has documented that affect plays a crucial role in risk perception. When no information about numerical risk estimates is available (e.g., probability of loss or magnitude of consequences), people may rely on positive and negative affect toward perceived risk. However, determinants of affective reactions to risks are poorly understood. In a series of three experiments, we addressed the question of whether and to what degree mental imagery eliciting negative affect and stress influences risk perception. In each experiment, participants were instructed to visualize consequences of risk taking and to rate riskiness. In Experiment 1, participants who imagined negative risk consequences reported more negative affect and perceived risk as higher compared to the control condition. In Experiment 2, we found that this effect was driven by affect elicited by mental imagery rather than its vividness and intensity. In this study, imagining positive risk consequences led to lower perceived risk than visualizing negative risk consequences. Finally, we tested the hypothesis that negative affect related to higher perceived risk was caused by negative feelings of stress. In Experiment 3, we introduced risk-irrelevant stress to show that participants in the stress condition rated perceived risk as higher in comparison to the control condition. This experiment showed that higher ratings of perceived risk were influenced by psychological stress. Taken together, our results demonstrate that affect-laden mental imagery dramatically changes risk perception through negative affect (i.e., psychological stress).

Telomerase activation by genomic rearrangements in high-risk neuroblastoma

Science.gov (United States)

Peifer, Martin; Hertwig, Falk; Roels, Frederik; Dreidax, Daniel; Gartlgruber, Moritz; Menon, Roopika; Krämer, Andrea; Roncaioli, Justin L.; Sand, Frederik; Heuckmann, Johannes M.; Ikram, Fakhera; Schmidt, Rene; Ackermann, Sandra; Engesser, Anne; Kahlert, Yvonne; Vogel, Wenzel; Altmüller, Janine; Nürnberg, Peter; Thierry-Mieg, Jean; Thierry-Mieg, Danielle; Mariappan, Aruljothi; Heynck, Stefanie; Mariotti, Erika; Henrich, Kai-Oliver; Glöckner, Christian; Bosco, Graziella; Leuschner, Ivo; Schweiger, Michal R.; Savelyeva, Larissa; Watkins, Simon C.; Shao, Chunxuan; Bell, Emma; Höfer, Thomas; Achter, Viktor; Lang, Ulrich; Theissen, Jessica; Volland, Ruth; Saadati, Maral; Eggert, Angelika; de Wilde, Bram; Berthold, Frank; Peng, Zhiyu; Zhao, Chen; Shi, Leming; Ortmann, Monika; Büttner, Reinhard; Perner, Sven; Hero, Barbara; Schramm, Alexander; Schulte, Johannes H.; Herrmann, Carl; O’Sullivan, Roderick J.; Westermann, Frank; Thomas, Roman K.; Fischer, Matthias

2016-01-01

Neuroblastoma is a malignant paediatric tumour of the sympathetic nervous system1. Roughly half of these tumours regress spontaneously or are cured by limited therapy. By contrast, high-risk neuroblastomas have an unfavourable clinical course despite intensive multimodal treatment, and their molecular basis has remained largely elusive2–4. Here we have performed whole-genome sequencing of 56 neuroblastomas (high-risk, n = 39; low-risk, n = 17) and discovered recurrent genomic rearrangements affecting a chromosomal region at 5p15.33 proximal of the telomerase reverse transcriptase gene (TERT). These rearrangements occurred only in high-risk neuroblastomas (12/39, 31%) in a mutually exclusive fashion with MYCN amplifications and ATRX mutations, which are known genetic events in this tumour type1,2,5. In an extended case series (n = 217), TERT rearrangements defined a subgroup of high-risk tumours with particularly poor outcome. Despite a large structural diversity of these rearrangements, they all induced massive transcriptional upregulation of TERT. In the remaining high-risk tumours, TERT expression was also elevated in MYCN-amplified tumours, whereas alternative lengthening of telomeres was present in neuroblastomas without TERT or MYCN alterations, suggesting that telomere lengthening represents a central mechanism defining this subtype. The 5p15.33 rearrangements juxtapose the TERT coding sequence to strong enhancer elements, resulting in massive chromatin remodelling and DNA methylation of the affected region. Supporting a functional role of TERT, neuroblastoma cell lines bearing rearrangements or amplified MYCN exhibited both upregulated TERT expression and enzymatic telomerase activity. In summary, our findings show that remodelling of the genomic context abrogates transcriptional silencing of TERT in high-risk neuroblastoma and places telomerase activation in the centre of transformation in a large fraction of these tumours. PMID:26466568

CIRCUMSTANCES AND CONSEQUENCES OF FALLS IN POLIO SURVIVORS

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bickerstaffe, Alice; Beelen, Anita; Nollet, Frans

2010-01-01

Objectives: Many polio survivors have symptoms that are known risk factors for falls in elderly people. This study aims to determine the: (i) frequency; (ii) consequences; (iii) circumstances; and (iv) factors associated with falls in polio survivors. Methods: A survey was conducted among 376 polio

Very High-Risk Localized Prostate Cancer: Outcomes Following Definitive Radiation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Narang, Amol K.; Gergis, Carol; Robertson, Scott P.; He, Pei; Ram, Ashwin N.; McNutt, Todd R.; Griffith, Emily; DeWeese, Theodore A.; Honig, Stephanie; Singh, Harleen; Song, Danny Y.; Tran, Phuoc T.; DeWeese, Theodore L.

2016-01-01

Purpose: Existing definitions of high-risk prostate cancer consist of men who experience significant heterogeneity in outcomes. As such, criteria that identify a subpopulation of National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) high-risk prostate cancer patients who are at very high risk (VHR) for poor survival outcomes following prostatectomy were recently developed at our institution and include the presence of any of the following disease characteristics: multiple NCCN high-risk factors, primary Gleason pattern 5 disease and/or ≥5 biopsy cores with Gleason sums of 8 to 10. Whether these criteria also apply to men undergoing definitive radiation is unclear, as is the optimal treatment regimen in these patients. Methods and Materials: All men consecutively treated with definitive radiation by a single provider from 1993 to 2006 and who fulfilled criteria for NCCN high-risk disease were identified (n=288), including 99 patients (34%) with VHR disease. Multivariate-adjusted competing risk regression models were constructed to assess associations between the VHR definition and biochemical failure (BF), distant metastasis (DM), and prostate cancer–specific mortality (PCSM). Multivariate-adjusted Cox regression analysis assessed the association of the VHR definition with overall mortality (OM). Cumulative incidences of failure endpoints were compared between VHR men and other NCCN high-risk men. Results: Men with VHR disease compared to other NCCN high-risk men experienced a higher 10-year incidence of BF (54.0% vs 35.4%, respectively, P<.001), DM (34.9% vs 13.4%, respectively, P<.001), PCSM (18.5% vs 5.9%, respectively, P<.001), and OM (36.4% vs 27.0%, respectively, P=.04). VHR men with a detectable prostate-specific antigen (PSA) concentration at the end of radiation (EOR) remained at high risk of 10-year PCSM compared to VHR men with an undetectable EOR PSA (31.0% vs 13.7%, respectively, P=.05). Conclusions: NCCN high-risk prostate cancer patients who meet VHR

Economic and Ethical Consequences of Natural Hazards in Alpine Valleys (EE-Con)

Science.gov (United States)

Ortner, Florian; Brantl, Dirk; Meyer, Lukas; Steininger, Karl; Sass, Oliver

2015-04-01

The Alps and their population are particularly vulnerable to geomorphological and hydrological hazards and this problem might be amplified by ongoing climate change. Natural disasters cause severe monetary damage which often leads to the difficult question whether it socially pays to protect settlements at high costs or whether alternatively settlement areas should better be abandoned. By investigations in the Johnsbachtal and the Kleinsölktal (Styria), the interdisciplinary project "Economic and Ethical Consequences of Natural Hazards in Alpine Valleys" (EE-Con), funded by the Austrian Academy of Sciences, seeks to answer the following questions: (1) Are natural hazards and associated damages in fact increasing, and is this due to meteorological triggers, to anthropogenic factors or to internal process dynamics? (2) What is the perception and knowledge of local people, how is risk and risk prevention communicated? (3) What is the respective cost ratio between protection infrastructure, soft measures of adaptation and other options (e.g. reduction of settlement area)? (4) What legitimate claims to compensation do people have, how far does societal responsibility go and where does individual responsibility start if parts of the settlement area had to be abandoned? These questions will be tackled in an interdisciplinary cooperation between geography, economics and normative theory (philosophy). EE-Con will follow broadly the path of risk analysis and risk assessment, focusing on the temporal dimension (past - present - future) with the aim to unravel the history of natural hazards in the areas and to analyse the economic values involved. In the following, natural hazard scenarios for the future (2050 and 2100) will be developed considering the economic consequences. Besides this, the project deals with local knowledge, risk perception and risk communication, which will be investigated via group interviews and stakeholder workshops and be integrated into a human

Child Maltreatment and Clinical Outcome in Individuals at Ultra-High Risk for Psychosis in the EU-GEI High Risk Study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kraan, Tamar C.; Velthorst, Eva; Themmen, Manouk; Valmaggia, Lucia; Kempton, Matthew J.; McGuire, Phillip; Van Os, Jim; Rutten, Bart P.F.; Smit, Filip; De Haan, Lieuwe; Van Der Gaag, Mark; McGuire, Philip; Valmaggia, Lucia R.; Calem, Maria; Tognin, Stefania; Modinos, Gemma; Burger, Nadine; Van Dam, Daniella S.; Barrantes-Vidal, Neus; Domínguez-Martínez, Tecelli; Cristóbal-Narváez, Paula; Kwapil, Thomas R.; Monsonet-Bardají, Manel; Hinojosa, Lídia; Riecher-Rössler, Anita; Borgwardt, Stefan; Rapp, Charlotte; Ittig, Sarah; Studerus, Erich; Smieskova, Renata; Bressan, Rodrigo; Gadelha, Ary; Brietzke, Elisa; Asevedo, Graccielle; Asevedo, Elson; Zugman, Andre; Ruhrmann, Stephan; Gebhard, Dominika; Arnhold, Julia; Klosterkötter, Joachim; Nordholm, Dorte; Randers, Lasse; Krakauer, Kristine; Naumann, Tanya Louise; Glenthøj, Louise Birkedal; Nordentoft, Merete; De Hert, Marc; Van Winkel, Ruud; Nelson, Barnaby; McGorry, Patrick

2018-01-01

Background: Child maltreatment has been associated with a wide range of mental disorders in adulthood. Whether child maltreatment is specifically associated with psychosis risk in individuals at ultra-high risk (UHR) for psychosis, or leads to a general vulnerability for overall psychopathology in

InSAR deformation monitoring of high risk landslides

Science.gov (United States)

Singhroy, V.; Li, J.

2013-05-01

During the past year there were at least twenty five media reports of landslides and seismic activities some fatal, occurring in various areas in Canada. These high risk geohazards sites requires high resolution monitoring both spatially and temporally for mitigation purposes, since they are near populated areas and energy, transportation and communication corridors. High resolution air photos, lidar and satellite images are quite common in areas where the landslides can be fatal. Radar interferometry (InSAR) techniques using images from several radar satellites are increasingly being used in slope stability assessment. This presentation provides examples of using high-resolution (1-3m) frequent revisits InSAR techniques from RADARSAT 2 and TerraSAR X to monitor several types of high-risk landslides affecting transportation and energy corridors and populated areas. We have analyses over 200 high resolution InSAR images over a three year period on geologically different landslides. The high-resolution InSAR images are effective in characterizing differential motion within these low velocity landslides. The low velocity landslides become high risk during the active wet spring periods. The wet soils are poor coherent targets and corner reflectors provide an effective means of InSAR monitoring the slope activities.

Chernobyl: what sanitary consequences?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aurengo, A.

2001-11-01

Because of its public health, ecological and industrial consequences, the Chernobyl accident has become a myth which serves as the focus of many fears, justified or not. no one can question the seriousness of the event, but after fifteen years there is still no agreement about the effect it has had or will have on public health. For example, the total number of deaths attributed to Chernobyl varies from less than a hundred to several millions and congenital malformations from negligible to cataclysmic. Effects on public health may be calculated from data on contamination, from the dose received and from the risk, all three of which are likely to be very roughly known; or they may be evaluated on the spot, either by epidemiological studies or by examining medical registers. This report makes an inventory of the different risks and takes stock on them. (N.C.)

Update on the Management of High-Risk Penetrating Keratoplasty.

Science.gov (United States)

Jabbehdari, Sayena; Rafii, Alireza Baradaran; Yazdanpanah, Ghasem; Hamrah, Pedram; Holland, Edward J; Djalilian, Ali R

2017-03-01

In this article, we review the indications and latest management of high-risk penetrating keratoplasty. Despite the immune-privilege status of the cornea, immune-mediated graft rejection still remains the leading cause of corneal graft failure. This is particularly a problem in the high-risk graft recipients, namely patients with previous graft failure due to rejection and those with inflamed and vascularized corneal beds. A number of strategies including both local and systemic immunosuppression are currently used to increase the success rate of high-risk corneal grafts. Moreover, in cases of limbal stem cell deficiency, limbal stem cells transplantation is employed. Corticosteroids are still the top medication for prevention and treatment in cases of corneal graft rejection. Single and combined administration of immunosuppressive agents e.g. tacrolimus, cyclosporine and mycophenolate are promising adjunctive therapies for prolonging graft survival. In the future, cellular and molecular therapies should allow us to achieve immunologic tolerance even in high-risk grafts.

Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

Science.gov (United States)

Edwards, Michelle

2010-01-01

Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

Global risk of pharmaceutical contamination from highly populated developing countries.

Science.gov (United States)

Rehman, Muhammad Saif Ur; Rashid, Naim; Ashfaq, Muhammad; Saif, Ameena; Ahmad, Nasir; Han, Jong-In

2015-11-01

Global pharmaceutical industry has relocated from the west to Asian countries to ensure competitive advantage. This industrial relocation has posed serious threats to the environment. The present study was carried out to assess the possible pharmaceutical contamination in the environment of emerging pharmaceutical manufacturing countries (Bangladesh, China, India and Pakistan). Although these countries have made tremendous progress in the pharmaceutical sector but most of their industrial units discharge wastewater into domestic sewage network without any treatment. The application of untreated wastewater (industrial and domestic) and biosolids (sewage sludge and manure) in agriculture causes the contamination of surface water, soil, groundwater, and the entire food web with pharmaceutical compounds (PCs), their metabolites and transformed products (TPs), and multidrug resistant microbes. This pharmaceutical contamination in Asian countries poses global risks via product export and international traveling. Several prospective research hypotheses including the development of new analytical methods to monitor these PCs/TPs and their metabolites, highly resistant microbial strains, and mixture toxicity as a consequence of pharmaceutical contamination in these emerging pharmaceutical exporters have also been proposed based on the available literature. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

High risk process control system assessment methodology

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Santos, Venetia [Pontificia Universidade Catolica do Rio de Janeiro (PUC-Rio), RJ (Brazil); Zamberlan, Maria Cristina [National Institute of Tehnology (INT), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Human Reliability and Ergonomics Research Group for the Oil, Gas and Energy Sector

2009-07-01

The evolution of ergonomics methodology has become necessary due to the dynamics imposed by the work environment, by the increase of the need of human cooperation and by the high interaction between various sections within a company. In the last 25 years, as of studies made in the high risk process control, we have developed a methodology to evaluate these situations that focus on the assessment of activities and human cooperation, the assessment of context, the assessment of the impact of work of other sectors in the final activity of the operator, as well as the modeling of existing risks. (author)

The relationship between default mode network connectivity and social functioning in individuals at familial high-risk for schizophrenia.

Science.gov (United States)

Dodell-Feder, David; Delisi, Lynn E; Hooker, Christine I

2014-06-01

Unaffected first-degree relatives of individuals with schizophrenia (i.e., those at familial high-risk [FHR]), demonstrate social dysfunction qualitatively similar though less severe than that of their affected relatives. These social difficulties may be the consequence of genetically conferred disruption to aspects of the default mode network (DMN), such as the dMPFC subsystem, which overlaps with the network of brain regions recruited during social cognitive processes. In the present study, we investigate this possibility, testing DMN connectivity and its relationship to social functioning in FHR using resting-state fMRI. Twenty FHR individuals and 17 controls underwent fMRI during a resting-state scan. Hypothesis-driven functional connectivity analyses examined ROI-to-ROI correlations between the DMN's hubs, and regions of the dMPFC subsystem and MTL subsystem. Connectivity values were examined in relationship to a measure of social functioning and empathy/perspective-taking. Results demonstrate that FHR exhibit reduced connectivity specifically within the dMPFC subsystem of the DMN. Certain ROI-to-ROI correlations predicted aspects of social functioning and empathy/perspective-taking across all participants. Together, the data indicate that disruption to the dMPFC subsystem of the DMN may be associated with familial risk for schizophrenia, and that these intrinsic connections may carry measurable consequences for social functioning. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Changing Global Risk Landscape - Challenges for Risk Management (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Wenzel, F.

2009-12-01

The exponentially growing losses related to natural disasters on a global scale reflect a changing risk landscape that is characterized by the influence of climate change and a growing population, particularly in urban agglomerations and coastal zones. In consequence of these trends we witness (a) new hazards such as landslides due to dwindling permafrost, new patterns of strong precipitation and related floods, potential for tropical cyclones in the Mediterranean, sea level rise and others; (b) new risks related to large numbers of people in very dense urban areas, and risks related to the vulnerability of infrastructure such as energy supply, water supply, transportation, communication, etc. (c) extreme events with unprecedented size and implications. An appropriate answer to these challenges goes beyond classical views of risk assessment and protection. It must include an understanding of risk as changing with time so that risk assessment needs to be supplemented by risk monitoring. It requires decision making under high uncertainty. The risks (i.e. potentials for future losses) of extreme events are not only high but also very difficult to quantify, as they are characterized by high levels of uncertainty. Uncertainties relate to frequency, time of occurrence, strength and impact of extreme events but also to the coping capacities of society in response to them. The characterization, quantification, reduction in the extent possible of the uncertainties is an inherent topic of extreme event research. However, they will not disappear, so a rational approach to extreme events must include more than reducing uncertainties. It requires us to assess and rate the irreducible uncertainties, to evaluate options for mitigation under large uncertainties, and their communication to societal sectors. Thus scientist need to develop methodologies that aim at a rational approach to extreme events associated with high levels of uncertainty.

Mother-Child Interactional Patterns in High- and Low-Risk Mothers.

Science.gov (United States)

Dolz, Laura; Cerezo, M. Angeles; Milner, Joel S.

1997-01-01

A study of 10 high-risk (of child physical abuse) and 10 demographically similar low-risk Spanish mother-child dyads investigated interactional patterns in the home. High-risk mothers made fewer neutral approaches to their children, displayed more negative behaviors toward their children, and made more indiscriminate responses to their children's…

Radiological consequences of radioactive substances in building materials

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tschurlovits, M.

1982-01-01

A review of radiological consequences of radioactive substances in building materials is given. Where the other contributing papers are dealing with technical problems and measuring techniques, this paper is going beyond the term dose and is considering the risk by radioactive substances in building materials in relation to conventional risks. The present state of international standards is also discussed. If a limit of 1 mSv is adopted, it is shown that this limit is just met at present conditions. (Author) [de

Lipid profile, cardiovascular disease and mortality in a Mediterranean high-risk population: The ESCARVAL-RISK study.

Science.gov (United States)

Orozco-Beltran, Domingo; Gil-Guillen, Vicente F; Redon, Josep; Martin-Moreno, Jose M; Pallares-Carratala, Vicente; Navarro-Perez, Jorge; Valls-Roca, Francisco; Sanchis-Domenech, Carlos; Fernandez-Gimenez, Antonio; Perez-Navarro, Ana; Bertomeu-Martinez, Vicente; Bertomeu-Gonzalez, Vicente; Cordero, Alberto; Pascual de la Torre, Manuel; Trillo, Jose L; Carratala-Munuera, Concepcion; Pita-Fernandez, Salvador; Uso, Ruth; Durazo-Arvizu, Ramon; Cooper, Richard; Sanz, Gines; Castellano, Jose M; Ascaso, Juan F; Carmena, Rafael; Tellez-Plaza, Maria

2017-01-01

The potential impact of targeting different components of an adverse lipid profile in populations with multiple cardiovascular risk factors is not completely clear. This study aims to assess the association between different components of the standard lipid profile with all-cause mortality and hospitalization due to cardiovascular events in a high-risk population. This prospective registry included high risk adults over 30 years old free of cardiovascular disease (2008-2012). Diagnosis of hypertension, dyslipidemia or diabetes mellitus was inclusion criterion. Lipid biomarkers were evaluated. Primary endpoints were all-cause mortality and hospital admission due to coronary heart disease or stroke. We estimated adjusted rate ratios (aRR), absolute risk differences and population attributable risk associated with adverse lipid profiles. 51,462 subjects were included with a mean age of 62.6 years (47.6% men). During an average follow-up of 3.2 years, 919 deaths, 1666 hospitalizations for coronary heart disease and 1510 hospitalizations for stroke were recorded. The parameters that showed an increased rate for total mortality, coronary heart disease and stroke hospitalization were, respectively, low HDL-Cholesterol: aRR 1.25, 1.29 and 1.23; high Total/HDL-Cholesterol: aRR 1.22, 1.38 and 1.25; and high Triglycerides/HDL-Cholesterol: aRR 1.21, 1.30, 1.09. The parameters that showed highest population attributable risk (%) were, respectively, low HDL-Cholesterol: 7.70, 11.42, 8.40; high Total/HDL-Cholesterol: 6.55, 12.47, 8.73; and high Triglycerides/HDL-Cholesterol: 8.94, 15.09, 6.92. In a population with cardiovascular risk factors, HDL-cholesterol, Total/HDL-cholesterol and triglycerides/HDL-cholesterol ratios were associated with a higher population attributable risk for cardiovascular disease compared to other common biomarkers.

Social amplification of risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kasperson, R.E.; Renn, O.; Slovic, P.; Kasperson, J.X.; Emani, S.

1989-01-01

The risks associated with radioactive and other hazardous waste disposal may be expected to interact with societal processes to enlarge or attenuate the consequences of risks and risk events. This article summarizes a conceptual framework that depicts the social amplification of risk. Using a data base of 128 hazard events that have occurred largely over the past ten years, the authors examine the role of physical consequences, media coverage, and public perceptions of risk in generating social and economic impacts. The analysis concludes that social amplification processes substantially shape the nature and magnitude of those impacts but also that such social amplification appears to be systematically related to characteristics of the risks and risk events

Landslide susceptibility and risk assessment: specificities for road networks

Science.gov (United States)

Pellicani, Roberta; Argentiero, Ilenia; Parisi, Alessandro; Spilotro, Giuseppe

2017-04-01

A regional-scale assessment of landslide susceptibility and risk along the main road corridors crossing the provincial territory of Matera (Basilicata Region, Southern Italy) was carried out. The entire provincial road network extends for about 1,320 km through a territory, of which represents the main connection infrastructure among thirty-one municipalities due to the lack of an efficient integrated transportation system through the whole regional territory. For this reason, the strategic importance of these roads consists in their uniqueness in connecting every urban center with the socio-economic surrounding context. These roads and their vehicular traffic are continuously exposed to instability processes (about the 40% of the total length is disrupted by landslides), characterized both by high intensity and low frequency and by low intensity and high frequency. This last typology, consisting in small shallow landslides, is particularly hazardous for the roads since it is widespread along the road network, its occurrence is connected to rainfalls and determines high vulnerability conditions for the road in terms of interruption of vehicular traffic. A GIS-based heuristic-bivariate statistical predictive model was performed to assess and map the landslide susceptibility in the study area, by using a polynomial function of eight predisposing factors, weighted according to their influence on the landslide phenomena, recognized and collected in an inventory. Susceptibility associated to small shallow phenomena was assessed by using a polynomial function of specific factors, such as slope angle and aspect, lithological outcrops, rainfalls, etc. In absence of detailed input data, the spatial distribution of landslide risk along the road corridors was assessed and mapped using a qualitative hazard-consequence matrix approach, by which risk is obtained by combining hazard categories with consequence classes pairwise in a two-dimensional table or matrix. Landslide

Reducing sexual risk behavior among high-risk couples in Northern India.

Science.gov (United States)

Jones, Deborah; Bagga, Rashmi; Nehra, Ritu; Deepika; Sethi, Sunil; Walia, Kamini; Kumar, Mahendra; Villar-Loubet, Olga; Lopez, Maria; Weiss, Stephen M

2013-09-01

With a population of 1.1 billion, India is considered to be a country in which effective prevention interventions could contain the development of a human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic. Heterosexual transmission accounts for 85 % of the extant HIV infections. This study sought to assess the feasibility of conducting a group, culturally tailored behavioral intervention and its impact on sexual barrier use, self-efficacy, knowledge, conflict resolution, and coping among high-risk heterosexual couples in Northern India. This pilot study was conducted at the Postgraduate Institute of Medical Education and Research (PGIMER), Chandigarh, India from February 2008 to January 2009. Thirty sexually active high-risk couples were drawn from a convenience sample of PGIMER patients attending infectious disease and family planning clinics. Couples participated in 1 month of three weekly gender-concordant behavioral intervention groups and were individually administered assessments preintervention and post-intervention. The intervention was tailored to the Northern Indian context and addressed sexual barrier use, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/sexually transmitted infection transmission, and cognitive behavioral skill building focusing on sexual negotiation and communication. The participants had a mean age of 32 years (men) and 29 years (women), and the majority had at least 10 years of education. At baseline, the majority reported inconsistent condom use (knowledge, and women increased their use of positive coping tactics. The results highlight the potential to successfully utilize a group intervention to discuss sensitive issues such as sexual risk behavior among both men and women. Strategies to improve condom use and communication without increasing intimate partner violence in high-risk couples may be an important adjunct to preventing the development of a generalized epidemic in India.

Do Family Structure and Poverty Affect Sexual Risk Behaviors of ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

AJRH Managing Editor

Family Structure, Poverty and Sexual Risk Behaviors ... Johannesburg, South Africa; 2Demography and Social Statistics Department, .... to high rate of adolescent sexual promiscuity as a ..... birth control and consequences of premarital sex.

At-risk high school seniors: Science remediation for Georgia's High School Graduation Test

Science.gov (United States)

Carroll, Carolyn M.

State departments of education have created a system of accountability for the academic achievement of students under the mandate of the No Child Left Behind Act of 2001. The Georgia Department of Education established the Georgia High School Graduation Test (GHSGT) as their method of evaluating the academic achievement of high school students. The GHSGT consist of five sections and students must pass all five sections before students they are eligible to receive a diploma. The purpose of the study was to examine the effects of teacher-lead and computer based remediation for a group of high school seniors who have been unsuccessful in passing the science portion of the GHSGT. The objectives of this study include (a) Identify the most effective method of remediation for at-risk students on the science section of the GHSGT, and (b) evaluate the methods of remediation for at-risk students on the science section of GHSGT available to high school students. The participants of this study were at-risk seniors enrolled in one high school during the 2007-2008 school year. The findings of this research study indicated that at-risk students who participated in both types of remediation, teacher-led and computer-based, scored significantly higher than the computer-based remediation group alone. There was no significant relationship between the test scores and the number of times the students were tested.

Predicting the onset of psychosis in patients at clinical high risk: practical guide to probabilistic prognostic reasoning.

Science.gov (United States)

Fusar-Poli, P; Schultze-Lutter, F

2016-02-01

Prediction of psychosis in patients at clinical high risk (CHR) has become a mainstream focus of clinical and research interest worldwide. When using CHR instruments for clinical purposes, the predicted outcome is but only a probability; and, consequently, any therapeutic action following the assessment is based on probabilistic prognostic reasoning. Yet, probabilistic reasoning makes considerable demands on the clinicians. We provide here a scholarly practical guide summarising the key concepts to support clinicians with probabilistic prognostic reasoning in the CHR state. We review risk or cumulative incidence of psychosis in, person-time rate of psychosis, Kaplan-Meier estimates of psychosis risk, measures of prognostic accuracy, sensitivity and specificity in receiver operator characteristic curves, positive and negative predictive values, Bayes' theorem, likelihood ratios, potentials and limits of real-life applications of prognostic probabilistic reasoning in the CHR state. Understanding basic measures used for prognostic probabilistic reasoning is a prerequisite for successfully implementing the early detection and prevention of psychosis in clinical practice. Future refinement of these measures for CHR patients may actually influence risk management, especially as regards initiating or withholding treatment. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Screening for Hypoglycemia in Exclusively Breastfed High-risk Neonates.

Science.gov (United States)

Singh, Princy; Upadhyay, Amit; Sreenivas, Vishnubhatla; Jaiswal, Vijay; Saxena, Pranjali

2017-06-15

To determine incidence of hypoglycemia in exclusively breastfed, high-risk but healthy newborns, and risk factors for its development. This observational study enrolled 407 exclusively breastfed high-risk (low birth weight newborns (1800-2499 g), late preterms, small-for-gestation, large-for-gestation and infant of diabetic mother), who did not require admission to neonatal intensive care unit and were kept in postnatal wards with mother. Hypoglycemia was defined as blood glucose £46 mg/dL (2.6 mmol/L). Blood glucose was monitored till 48 hours of life. 27% of the screened newborns developed hypoglycemia in first 48 hours. 31 (7.6%) developed recurrent (>2) episodes, 28 (6.8%) had moderate (<37mg/dL) while 8 (1.9%) developed symptomatic hypoglycemia. With increase in birthweight, risk of hypoglycemia reduced significantly (P=0.003). Hypoglycemia was observed more frequently in first 2 hours as compared to next 48 hours (P=0.0001). Low birth- weight, preterm gestation and male gender was significantly associated with increased risk of hypoglycemia. Healthy, high-risk exclusively breastfed newborns in postnatal wards need close monitoring for hypoglycemia in first 24 hrs of life.

Presence of High-Risk HPV mRNA in Relation to Future High-Grade Lesions among High-Risk HPV DNA Positive Women with Minor Cytological Abnormalities.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hanna Johansson

Full Text Available Continuous expression of E6- and E7-oncogenes of high-risk human papillomavirus (HPV types is necessary for the development and maintenance of the dysplastic phenotype. The aim of the study was to determine the sensitivity and specificity of the APTIMA HPV mRNA assay (Hologic in predicting future development of high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN among high-risk HPV-DNA-positive women with atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance (ASCUS or low-grade squamous epithelial lesion (LSIL cytology.Archived SurePath cervical samples of women ≥ 35 years of age with high-risk HPV DNA-positive ASCUS (n = 211 or LSIL, (n = 131 were tested for the presence of high-risk HPV E6/E7 mRNA using the APTIMA HPV assay, and the women were monitored for development of histopathologically verified CIN2+.Twenty-nine percent (61/211 of the women in the ASCUS group, and 34.3% (45/131 in the LSIL group developed CIN2+ within 4.5 years of follow-up. The prevalence of HPV mRNA was 90.0% (95% CI 85.9-94.0 among women with ASCUS and 95.4% (95% CI 91.8-99.0 among women with LSIL. The presence of HPV E6/E7 mRNA was associated with future development of CIN2+ among women with ASCUS and LSIL (p=0.02. The mRNA assay demonstrated high sensitivity in predicting future CIN2+ and CIN3 for index ASCUS (96.7%; 95% CI 87.6-99.4 and 100%; 95% CI 82.2-100, respectively and LSIL (97.8%, 95% CI 86.8-99.9 and 100%, 95% CI 79.9-100, respectively. The corresponding specificity was low, 12.7% (95% CI 7.9-19.3 and 5.8% (95% CI 2.2-13.6, for future CIN2+, respectively. The negative predictive value of the HPV mRNA assay for detecting future CIN3 was 100%, since no mRNA-negative woman developed CIN3 (0/27 as compared to 13.6% (43/315 of the mRNA-positive women (p = 0.03.The APTIMA mRNA assay demonstrated high sensitivity but low specificity in predicting future CIN2+ among women with minor cytological abnormalities. The assay had high negative predictive value for future

Presence of High-Risk HPV mRNA in Relation to Future High-Grade Lesions among High-Risk HPV DNA Positive Women with Minor Cytological Abnormalities

Science.gov (United States)

Johansson, Hanna; Bjelkenkrantz, Kaj; Darlin, Lotten; Dilllner, Joakim; Forslund, Ola

2015-01-01

Objective Continuous expression of E6- and E7-oncogenes of high-risk human papillomavirus (HPV) types is necessary for the development and maintenance of the dysplastic phenotype. The aim of the study was to determine the sensitivity and specificity of the APTIMA HPV mRNA assay (Hologic) in predicting future development of high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) among high-risk HPV-DNA-positive women with atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance (ASCUS) or low-grade squamous epithelial lesion (LSIL) cytology. Methods Archived SurePath cervical samples of women ≥ 35 years of age with high-risk HPV DNA-positive ASCUS (n = 211) or LSIL, (n = 131) were tested for the presence of high-risk HPV E6/E7 mRNA using the APTIMA HPV assay, and the women were monitored for development of histopathologically verified CIN2+. Results Twenty-nine percent (61/211) of the women in the ASCUS group, and 34.3% (45/131) in the LSIL group developed CIN2+ within 4.5 years of follow-up. The prevalence of HPV mRNA was 90.0% (95% CI 85.9-94.0) among women with ASCUS and 95.4% (95% CI 91.8-99.0) among women with LSIL. The presence of HPV E6/E7 mRNA was associated with future development of CIN2+ among women with ASCUS and LSIL (p=0.02). The mRNA assay demonstrated high sensitivity in predicting future CIN2+ and CIN3 for index ASCUS (96.7%; 95% CI 87.6-99.4 and 100%; 95% CI 82.2-100, respectively) and LSIL (97.8%, 95% CI 86.8-99.9 and 100%, 95% CI 79.9-100, respectively). The corresponding specificity was low, 12.7% (95% CI 7.9-19.3) and 5.8% (95% CI 2.2-13.6), for future CIN2+, respectively. The negative predictive value of the HPV mRNA assay for detecting future CIN3 was 100%, since no mRNA-negative woman developed CIN3 (0/27) as compared to 13.6% (43/315) of the mRNA-positive women (p = 0.03). Conclusion The APTIMA mRNA assay demonstrated high sensitivity but low specificity in predicting future CIN2+ among women with minor cytological abnormalities. The assay had

Fractional laser-mediated photodynamic therapy of high-risk basal cell carcinomas

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Haak, C S; Togsverd-Bo, K; Thaysen-Petersen, D

2015-01-01

efficacy and safety of AFXL-mediated PDT (AFXL-PDT) compared with conventional PDT of high-risk nBCC. METHODS: Patients with histologically verified facial nBCC (n = 32) defined as high-risk tumours were included; diameter > 15 mm, tumours located in high-risk zones, or on severely sun-damaged skin...

The high-risk HPV infection and urinary system tumor

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yang Wenyan

2018-04-01

Full Text Available HPV is classified into high-risk and low-risk types depending on its probability of leading to tumorigenesis. Many studies have shown that HPV infection, especially the infection caused by the high-risk type, is always related to prostate cancer, bladder cancer, penile cancer, testicular cancer, and other urinary system tumors. However, previous studies differed in sexual openness and racial genetic susceptibility of the study object, sample size, and experimental methods. Hence, the correlation between high-risk HPV infection and urinary system tumors remains controversial. The early open reading frame of the HPV genome is composed of E1–E7, among which E6 and E7 are the key transfer proteins. The combination of these proteins with oncogene and anti-oncogene may be one of the mechanisms leading to tumorigenesis.

["Handle with care": about the potential unintended consequences of oracular artificial intelligence systems in medicine.

Science.gov (United States)

Cabitza, Federico; Alderighi, Camilla; Rasoini, Raffaele; Gensini, Gian Franco

2017-10-01

Decisional support systems based on machine learning (ML) in medicine are gaining a growing interest as some recent articles have highlighted the high diagnostic accuracy exhibited by these systems in specific medical contexts. However, it is implausible that any potential advantage can be obtained without some potential drawbacks. In light of the current gaps in medical research about the side effects of the application of these new AI systems in medical practice, in this article we summarize the main unexpected consequences that may result from the widespread application of "oracular" systems, that is highly accurate systems that cannot give reasonable explanations of their advice as those endowed with predictive models developed with ML techniques usually are. These consequences range from the intrinsic uncertainty in the data that are used to train and feed these systems, to the inadequate explainability of their output; through the risk of overreliance, deskilling and context desensitization of their end-users. Although some of these issues may be currently hard to evaluate due to the still scarce adoption of these decisional systems in medical practice, we advocate the study of these potential consequences also for a more informed policy of approval beyond hype and disenchantment.

An Overview. High Risk Series.

Science.gov (United States)

General Accounting Office, Washington, DC.

This report provides an overview of efforts undertaken by the U.S. General Accounting Office (GAO) in 1990 to review and report on federal program areas its work identified as high risk because of vulnerabilities to waste, fraud, abuse, and mismanagement. It reviews the current status of efforts to address these concerns. The six categories of…

Understanding and acknowledging the ice throw hazard - consequences for regulatory frameworks, risk perception and risk communication

Science.gov (United States)

Bredesen, R. E.; Drapalik, M.; Butt, B.

2017-11-01

This study attempts to provide the necessary framework required to make sufficiently informed decisions regarding the safety implications of ice throw. The framework elaborates on how to cope with uncertainties, and how to describe results in a meaningful and useful manner to decision makers. Moreover, it points out the moral, judicial and economical obligations of wind turbine owners such that they are able to minimize risk of ice throws as much as possible. Building on the strength of knowledge as well as accounting for uncertainty are also essential in enabling clear communication with stakeholders on the most important/critical/vital issues. With increasing empirical evidence, one can assign a higher confidence level on the expert opinions on safety. Findings regarding key uncertainties of ice risk assessments are presented here to support the ongoing IEA Wind Task 19's work on creating the international guidelines on ice risk assessment due in 2018 (Krenn et al. 2017)[1-6]. In addition the study also incorporates the findings of a Norwegian information project, which focuses on the ice throw hazard for the public (Bredesen, Flage, Butt, Winterwind 2018)[7-9]. This includes measures to reduce damage and hazard from wind turbines for the general public. Recent theory of risk assessment questions the use of risk criteria for achieving optimum risk reduction and favours the use of the ALARA (as low as reasonably achievable) principle. Given the several practical problems associated with the ALARA approach (e.g. judicial realization), a joint approach, which uses a minimum set of criteria as well as the obligation to meet ALARA is suggested (associated with acceptable cost). The actual decision about acceptance criteria or obligations is a societal one, thus suggestions can be made at best. Risk acceptance, risk perception and risk communication are inextricably linked and should thus never be considered separately. Risk communication can shape risk perception

Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

Science.gov (United States)

Prayogo, Galang Sandy; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin

2016-04-01

Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Prayogo, Galang Sandy; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky; Kim, Seon Jin

2016-01-01

Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

Risk analysis of heat recovery steam generator with semi quantitative risk based inspection API 581

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Prayogo, Galang Sandy, E-mail: gasandylang@live.com; Haryadi, Gunawan Dwi; Ismail, Rifky [Department of Mechanical Engineering, Diponegoro University, Semarang (Indonesia); Kim, Seon Jin [Department of Mechanical & Automotive Engineering of Pukyong National University (Korea, Republic of)

2016-04-19

Corrosion is a major problem that most often occurs in the power plant. Heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) is an equipment that has a high risk to the power plant. The impact of corrosion damage causing HRSG power plant stops operating. Furthermore, it could be threaten the safety of employees. The Risk Based Inspection (RBI) guidelines by the American Petroleum Institute (API) 58 has been used to risk analysis in the HRSG 1. By using this methodology, the risk that caused by unexpected failure as a function of the probability and consequence of failure can be estimated. This paper presented a case study relating to the risk analysis in the HRSG, starting with a summary of the basic principles and procedures of risk assessment and applying corrosion RBI for process industries. The risk level of each HRSG equipment were analyzed: HP superheater has a medium high risk (4C), HP evaporator has a medium-high risk (4C), and the HP economizer has a medium risk (3C). The results of the risk assessment using semi-quantitative method of standard API 581 based on the existing equipment at medium risk. In the fact, there is no critical problem in the equipment components. Damage mechanisms were prominent throughout the equipment is thinning mechanism. The evaluation of the risk approach was done with the aim of reducing risk by optimizing the risk assessment activities.

Applications of probabilistic accident consequence evaluation in Cuba

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rodriguez, J.M.

1996-01-01

Are presented the approaches and results of the application of Accident Consequence Evaluation methodologies in on emergency in the Juragua Nuclear Power Plant site and a population evaluation of a planned NPP site in the east of the country Findings on population sector weighing and assessment of effectiveness of primary countermeasures in the event of sever accidents (SST1 and PWR4 source terms) in Juragua NPP site are discussed Results on comparative risk-based evaluation of the population predicted evolution (in 3 temporal horizons: base year, 2005 year and 2050 year) for the planned site are described. Evaluation also included sector risk weighing, risk importance of small towns in the nearby of the effects on risk of population freezing and relocation of these villages

Behavioral and cellular consequences of high-electrode count Utah Arrays chronically implanted in rat sciatic nerve

Science.gov (United States)

Wark, H. A. C.; Mathews, K. S.; Normann, R. A.; Fernandez, E.

2014-08-01

Objective. Before peripheral nerve electrodes can be used for the restoration of sensory and motor functions in patients with neurological disorders, the behavioral and histological consequences of these devices must be investigated. These indices of biocompatibility can be defined in terms of desired functional outcomes; for example, a device may be considered for use as a therapeutic intervention if the implanted subject retains functional neurons post-implantation even in the presence of a foreign body response. The consequences of an indwelling device may remain localized to cellular responses at the device-tissue interface, such as fibrotic encapsulation of the device, or they may affect the animal more globally, such as impacting behavioral or sensorimotor functions. The objective of this study was to investigate the overall consequences of implantation of high-electrode count intrafascicular peripheral nerve arrays, High Density Utah Slanted Electrode Arrays (HD-USEAs; 25 electrodes mm-2). Approach. HD-USEAs were implanted in rat sciatic nerves for one and two month periods. We monitored wheel running, noxious sensory paw withdrawal reflexes, footprints, nerve morphology and macrophage presence at the tissue-device interface. In addition, we used a novel approach to contain the arrays in actively behaving animals that consisted of an organic nerve wrap. A total of 500 electrodes were implanted across all ten animals. Main results. The results demonstrated that chronic implantation (⩽8 weeks) of HD-USEAs into peripheral nerves can evoke behavioral deficits that recover over time. Morphology of the nerve distal to the implantation site showed variable signs of nerve fiber degeneration and regeneration. Cytology adjacent to the device-tissue interface also showed a variable response, with some electrodes having many macrophages surrounding the electrodes, while other electrodes had few or no macrophages present. This variability was also seen along the length

An assessment of high risk sexual behaviour and HIV transmission ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

An assessment of high risk sexual behaviour and HIV transmission among migrant oil workers in the Niger Delta area of Nigeria. ... questionnaires to evaluate key high – risk sexual behavioral parameters such as multiplicity of sexual partners, bisexuality (closet homosexuality), high grade sexual behaviour and lesbianism.

Knowledge of the health consequences of tobacco smoking: a cross-sectional survey of Vietnamese adults

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dao Thi Minh An

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Background: Although substantial efforts have been made to curtail smoking in Vietnam, the 2010 Global Adult Tobacco Survey (GATS revealed that the proportion of male adults currently smoking remains high at 47.4%. Objectives: To determine the level of, and characteristics associated with, knowledge of the health consequences of smoking among Vietnamese adults. Design: GATS 2010 was designed to survey a nationally representative sample of Vietnamese men and women aged 15 and older drawn from 11,142 households using a two-stage sampling design. Descriptive statistics were calculated and multivariate logistic regression was used to examine associations between postulated exposure factors (age, education, access to information, ethnic group etc. and knowledge on health risks. Results: General knowledge on the health risks of active smoking (AS and exposure to second hand smoke (SHS was good (90% and 83%, respectively. However, knowledge on specific diseases related to tobacco smoking (stroke, heart attack, and lung cancer appeared to be lower (51.5%. Non-smokers had a significantly higher likelihood of demonstrating better knowledge on health risks related to AS (OR 1.6 and SHS (OR 1.7 than smokers. Adults with secondary education, college education or above also had significantly higher levels knowledge of AS/SHS health risks than those with primary education (AS: ORs 1.6, 1.7, and 1.9, respectively, and SHS: ORs 2.4, 3.9, and 5.7 respectively. Increasing age was positively associated with knowledge of the health consequences of SHS, and access to information was significantly associated with knowledge of AS/SHS health risks (ORs 2.3 and 1.9 respectively. Otherwise, non-Kinh ethnic groups had significantly less knowledge on health risks of AS/SHS than Kinh ethnic groups. Conclusions: It may be necessary to target tobacco prevention programs to specific subgroups including current smokers, adults with low education, non-Kinh ethnics in order to

MALDI-TOF mass spectrometry and high-consequence bacteria: safety and stability of biothreat bacterial sample testing in clinical diagnostic laboratories.

Science.gov (United States)

Tracz, Dobryan M; Tober, Ashley D; Antonation, Kym S; Corbett, Cindi R

2018-03-01

We considered the application of MALDI-TOF mass spectrometry for BSL-3 bacterial diagnostics, with a focus on the biosafety of live-culture direct-colony testing and the stability of stored extracts. Biosafety level 2 (BSL-2) bacterial species were used as surrogates for BSL-3 high-consequence pathogens in all live-culture MALDI-TOF experiments. Viable BSL-2 bacteria were isolated from MALDI-TOF mass spectrometry target plates after 'direct-colony' and 'on-plate' extraction testing, suggesting that the matrix chemicals alone cannot be considered sufficient to inactivate bacterial culture and spores in all samples. Sampling of the instrument interior after direct-colony analysis did not recover viable organisms, suggesting that any potential risks to the laboratory technician are associated with preparation of the MALDI-TOF target plate before or after testing. Secondly, a long-term stability study (3 years) of stored MALDI-TOF extracts showed that match scores can decrease below the threshold for reliable species identification (<1.7), which has implications for proficiency test panel item storage and distribution.

Alcohol consumption and high risk sexual behaviour among female ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Alcohol consumption has been associated with high risk sexual behaviour among key populations such as female sex workers. We explored the drivers of alcohol consumption and its relationship to high risk sexual behaviour. Participants were drawn from a cohort of 1 027 women selected from 'hot spots' in the suburbs of ...

Serving high-risk foods in a high-risk setting: survey of hospital food service practices after an outbreak of listeriosis in a hospital.

Science.gov (United States)

Cokes, Carolyn; France, Anne Marie; Reddy, Vasudha; Hanson, Heather; Lee, Lillian; Kornstein, Laura; Stavinsky, Faina; Balter, Sharon

2011-04-01

Prepared ready-to-eat salads and ready-to-eat delicatessen-style meats present a high risk for Listeria contamination. Because no foodborne illness risk management guidelines exist specifically for US hospitals, a survey of New York City (NYC) hospitals was conducted to characterize policies and practices after a listeriosis outbreak occurred in a NYC hospital. From August through October 2008, a listeriosis outbreak in a NYC hospital was investigated. From February through April 2009, NYC's 61 acute-care hospitals were asked to participate in a telephone survey regarding food safety practices and policies, specifically service of high-risk foods to patients at increased risk for listeriosis. Five patients with medical conditions that put them at high risk for listeriosis had laboratory-confirmed Listeria monocytogenes infection. The Listeria outbreak strain was isolated from tuna salad prepared in the hospital. Fifty-four (89%) of 61 hospitals responded to the survey. Overall, 81% of respondents reported serving ready-to-eat deli meats to patients, and 100% reported serving prepared ready-to-eat salads. Pregnant women, patients receiving immunosuppressive drugs, and patients undergoing chemotherapy were served ready-to-eat deli meats at 77%, 59%, and 49% of hospitals, respectively, and were served prepared ready-to-eat salads at 94%, 89%, and 73% of hospitals, respectively. Only 4 (25%) of 16 respondents reported having a policy that ready-to-eat deli meats must be heated until steaming hot before serving. Despite the potential for severe outcomes of Listeria infection among hospitalized patients, the majority of NYC hospitals had no food preparation policies to minimize risk. Hospitals should implement policies to avoid serving high-risk foods to patients at risk for listeriosis.

Prioritizing avian species for their risk of population-level consequences from wind energy development

Science.gov (United States)

Beston, Julie A.; Diffendorfer, James E.; Loss, Scott; Johnson, Douglas H.

2016-01-01

Recent growth in the wind energy industry has increased concerns about its impacts on wildlife populations. Direct impacts of wind energy include bird and bat collisions with turbines whereas indirect impacts include changes in wildlife habitat and behavior. Although many species may withstand these effects, species that are long-lived with low rates of reproduction, have specialized habitat preferences, or are attracted to turbines may be more prone to declines in population abundance. We developed a prioritization system to identify the avian species most likely to experience population declines from wind facilities based on their current conservation status and their expected risk from turbines. We developed 3 metrics of turbine risk that incorporate data on collision fatalities at wind facilities, population size, life history, species’ distributions relative to turbine locations, number of suitable habitat types, and species’ conservation status. We calculated at least 1 measure of turbine risk for 428 avian species that breed in the United States. We then simulated 100,000 random sets of cutoff criteria (i.e., the metric values used to assign species to different priority categories) for each turbine risk metric and for conservation status. For each set of criteria, we assigned each species a priority score and calculated the average priority score across all sets of criteria. Our prioritization system highlights both species that could potentially experience population decline caused by wind energy and species at low risk of population decline. For instance, several birds of prey, such as the long-eared owl, ferruginous hawk, Swainson’s hawk, and golden eagle, were at relatively high risk of population decline across a wide variety of cutoff values, whereas many passerines were at relatively low risk of decline. This prioritization system is a first step that will help researchers, conservationists, managers, and industry target future study and

Prioritizing Avian Species for Their Risk of Population-Level Consequences from Wind Energy Development.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Julie A Beston

Full Text Available Recent growth in the wind energy industry has increased concerns about its impacts on wildlife populations. Direct impacts of wind energy include bird and bat collisions with turbines whereas indirect impacts include changes in wildlife habitat and behavior. Although many species may withstand these effects, species that are long-lived with low rates of reproduction, have specialized habitat preferences, or are attracted to turbines may be more prone to declines in population abundance. We developed a prioritization system to identify the avian species most likely to experience population declines from wind facilities based on their current conservation status and their expected risk from turbines. We developed 3 metrics of turbine risk that incorporate data on collision fatalities at wind facilities, population size, life history, species' distributions relative to turbine locations, number of suitable habitat types, and species' conservation status. We calculated at least 1 measure of turbine risk for 428 avian species that breed in the United States. We then simulated 100,000 random sets of cutoff criteria (i.e., the metric values used to assign species to different priority categories for each turbine risk metric and for conservation status. For each set of criteria, we assigned each species a priority score and calculated the average priority score across all sets of criteria. Our prioritization system highlights both species that could potentially experience population decline caused by wind energy and species at low risk of population decline. For instance, several birds of prey, such as the long-eared owl, ferruginous hawk, Swainson's hawk, and golden eagle, were at relatively high risk of population decline across a wide variety of cutoff values, whereas many passerines were at relatively low risk of decline. This prioritization system is a first step that will help researchers, conservationists, managers, and industry target future

Prioritizing Avian Species for Their Risk of Population-Level Consequences from Wind Energy Development.

Science.gov (United States)

Beston, Julie A; Diffendorfer, Jay E; Loss, Scott R; Johnson, Douglas H

2016-01-01

Recent growth in the wind energy industry has increased concerns about its impacts on wildlife populations. Direct impacts of wind energy include bird and bat collisions with turbines whereas indirect impacts include changes in wildlife habitat and behavior. Although many species may withstand these effects, species that are long-lived with low rates of reproduction, have specialized habitat preferences, or are attracted to turbines may be more prone to declines in population abundance. We developed a prioritization system to identify the avian species most likely to experience population declines from wind facilities based on their current conservation status and their expected risk from turbines. We developed 3 metrics of turbine risk that incorporate data on collision fatalities at wind facilities, population size, life history, species' distributions relative to turbine locations, number of suitable habitat types, and species' conservation status. We calculated at least 1 measure of turbine risk for 428 avian species that breed in the United States. We then simulated 100,000 random sets of cutoff criteria (i.e., the metric values used to assign species to different priority categories) for each turbine risk metric and for conservation status. For each set of criteria, we assigned each species a priority score and calculated the average priority score across all sets of criteria. Our prioritization system highlights both species that could potentially experience population decline caused by wind energy and species at low risk of population decline. For instance, several birds of prey, such as the long-eared owl, ferruginous hawk, Swainson's hawk, and golden eagle, were at relatively high risk of population decline across a wide variety of cutoff values, whereas many passerines were at relatively low risk of decline. This prioritization system is a first step that will help researchers, conservationists, managers, and industry target future study and management

Negative Affect, Risk Perception, and Adolescent Risk Behavior

Science.gov (United States)

Curry, Laura A.; Youngblade, Lise M.

2006-01-01

The prevalence, etiology, and consequences of adolescent risk behavior have stimulated much research. The current study examined relationships among anger and depressive symptomatology (DS), risk perception, self-restraint, and adolescent risk behavior. Telephone surveys were conducted with 290 14- to 20-year-olds (173 females; M = 15.98 years).…

Long-term consequences of adolescent gang membership for adult functioning.

Science.gov (United States)

Gilman, Amanda B; Hill, Karl G; Hawkins, J David

2014-05-01

We examined the possible public health consequences of adolescent gang membership for adult functioning. Data were drawn from the Seattle Social Development Project, a longitudinal study focusing on the development of positive and problem outcomes. Using propensity score matching and logistic regression analyses, we assessed the effects of adolescent gang membership on illegal behavior, educational and occupational attainment, and physical and mental health at the ages of 27, 30, and 33 years. In comparison with their nongang peers, who had been matched on 23 confounding risk variables known to be related to selection into gang membership, those who had joined a gang in adolescence had poorer outcomes in multiple areas of adult functioning, including higher rates of self-reported crime, receipt of illegal income, incarceration, drug abuse or dependence, poor general health, and welfare receipt and lower rates of high school graduation. The finding that adolescent gang membership has significant consequences in adulthood beyond criminal behavior indicates the public health importance of the development of effective gang prevention programs.

Screening for breast cancer in a high-risk series