WorldWideScience

Sample records for high climate sensitivity

  1. Climate Sensitivity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lindzen, Richard [M.I.T.

    2011-11-09

    Warming observed thus far is entirely consistent with low climate sensitivity. However, the result is ambiguous because the sources of climate change are numerous and poorly specified. Model predictions of substantial warming aredependent on positive feedbacks associated with upper level water vapor and clouds, but models are notably inadequate in dealing with clouds and the impacts of clouds and water vapor are intimately intertwined. Various approaches to measuring sensitivity based on the physics of the feedbacks will be described. The results thus far point to negative feedbacks. Problems with these approaches as well as problems with the concept of climate sensitivity will be described.

  2. Plio-Pleistocene climate sensitivity evaluated using high-resolution CO2 records

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez-Botí, M. A.; Foster, G. L.; Chalk, T. B.; Rohling, E. J.; Sexton, P. F.; Lunt, D. J.; Pancost, R. D.; Badger, M. P. S.; Schmidt, D. N.

    2015-02-01

    Theory and climate modelling suggest that the sensitivity of Earth's climate to changes in radiative forcing could depend on the background climate. However, palaeoclimate data have thus far been insufficient to provide a conclusive test of this prediction. Here we present atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) reconstructions based on multi-site boron-isotope records from the late Pliocene epoch (3.3 to 2.3 million years ago). We find that Earth's climate sensitivity to CO2-based radiative forcing (Earth system sensitivity) was half as strong during the warm Pliocene as during the cold late Pleistocene epoch (0.8 to 0.01 million years ago). We attribute this difference to the radiative impacts of continental ice-volume changes (the ice-albedo feedback) during the late Pleistocene, because equilibrium climate sensitivity is identical for the two intervals when we account for such impacts using sea-level reconstructions. We conclude that, on a global scale, no unexpected climate feedbacks operated during the warm Pliocene, and that predictions of equilibrium climate sensitivity (excluding long-term ice-albedo feedbacks) for our Pliocene-like future (with CO2 levels up to maximum Pliocene levels of 450 parts per million) are well described by the currently accepted range of an increase of 1.5 K to 4.5 K per doubling of CO2.

  3. Plio-Pleistocene climate sensitivity evaluated using high-resolution CO2 records.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez-Botí, M A; Foster, G L; Chalk, T B; Rohling, E J; Sexton, P F; Lunt, D J; Pancost, R D; Badger, M P S; Schmidt, D N

    2015-02-05

    Theory and climate modelling suggest that the sensitivity of Earth's climate to changes in radiative forcing could depend on the background climate. However, palaeoclimate data have thus far been insufficient to provide a conclusive test of this prediction. Here we present atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) reconstructions based on multi-site boron-isotope records from the late Pliocene epoch (3.3 to 2.3 million years ago). We find that Earth's climate sensitivity to CO2-based radiative forcing (Earth system sensitivity) was half as strong during the warm Pliocene as during the cold late Pleistocene epoch (0.8 to 0.01 million years ago). We attribute this difference to the radiative impacts of continental ice-volume changes (the ice-albedo feedback) during the late Pleistocene, because equilibrium climate sensitivity is identical for the two intervals when we account for such impacts using sea-level reconstructions. We conclude that, on a global scale, no unexpected climate feedbacks operated during the warm Pliocene, and that predictions of equilibrium climate sensitivity (excluding long-term ice-albedo feedbacks) for our Pliocene-like future (with CO2 levels up to maximum Pliocene levels of 450 parts per million) are well described by the currently accepted range of an increase of 1.5 K to 4.5 K per doubling of CO2.

  4. Attributing the effects of climate on phenology change suggests high sensitivity in coastal zones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seyednasrollah, B.; Clark, J. S.

    2015-12-01

    The impact of climate change on spring phenology depends on many variables that cannot be separated using current models. Phenology can influence carbon sequestration, plant nutrition, forest health, and species distributions. Leaf phenology is sensitive to changes of environmental factors, including climate, species composition, latitude, and solar radiation. The many variables and their interactions frustrate efforts to attribute variation to climate change. We developed a Bayesian framework to quantify the influence of environment on the speed of forest green-up. This study presents a state-space hierarchical model to infer and predict change in forest greenness over time using satellite observations and ground measurements. The framework accommodates both observation and process errors and it allows for main effects of variables and their interactions. We used daily spaceborne remotely sensed data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to quantify temporal variability in the enhanced vegetation index (EVI) along a habitat gradient in the Southeastern United States. The ground measurements of meteorological parameters are obtained from study sites located in the Appalachian Mountains, the Piedmont and the Atlantic Coastal Plain between years 2000 and 2015. Results suggest that warming accelerates spring green-up in the Coastal Plain to a greater degree than in the Piedmont and Appalachian. In other words, regardless of variation in the timing of spring onset, the rate of greenness in non-coastal zones decreases with increasing temperature and hence with time over the spring transitional period. However, in coastal zones, as air temperature increases, leaf expansion becomes faster. This may indicate relative vulnerability to warming in non-coastal regions where moisture could be a limiting factor, whereas high temperatures in regions close to the coast enhance forest physiological activities. Model predictions agree with the remotely

  5. An analysis of MM5 sensitivity to different parameterizations for high-resolution climate simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Argüeso, D.; Hidalgo-Muñoz, J. M.; Gámiz-Fortis, S. R.; Esteban-Parra, M. J.; Castro-Díez, Y.

    2009-04-01

    An evaluation of MM5 mesoscale model sensitivity to different parameterizations schemes is presented in terms of temperature and precipitation for high-resolution integrations over Andalusia (South of Spain). As initial and boundary conditions ERA-40 Reanalysis data are used. Two domains were used, a coarse one with dimensions of 55 by 60 grid points with spacing of 30 km and a nested domain of 48 by 72 grid points grid spaced 10 km. Coarse domain fully covers Iberian Peninsula and Andalusia fits loosely in the finer one. In addition to parameterization tests, two dynamical downscaling techniques have been applied in order to examine the influence of initial conditions on RCM long-term studies. Regional climate studies usually employ continuous integration for the period under survey, initializing atmospheric fields only at the starting point and feeding boundary conditions regularly. An alternative approach is based on frequent re-initialization of atmospheric fields; hence the simulation is divided in several independent integrations. Altogether, 20 simulations have been performed using varying physics options, of which 4 were fulfilled applying the re-initialization technique. Surface temperature and accumulated precipitation (daily and monthly scale) were analyzed for a 5-year period covering from 1990 to 1994. Results have been compared with daily observational data series from 110 stations for temperature and 95 for precipitation Both daily and monthly average temperatures are generally well represented by the model. Conversely, daily precipitation results present larger deviations from observational data. However, noticeable accuracy is gained when comparing with monthly precipitation observations. There are some especially conflictive subregions where precipitation is scarcely captured, such as the Southeast of the Iberian Peninsula, mainly due to its extremely convective nature. Regarding parameterization schemes performance, every set provides very

  6. Watershed sensitivity and hydrologic response to high-resolution climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Troin, M.; Caya, D.

    2012-12-01

    Global climate models (GCMs) are fundamental research tools to assess climate change impacts on water resources. Regional climate models (RCMs) are complementary to GCMs. The added benefit of RCMs for hydrological applications is still not well understood because watersheds respond differently to RCM experiments. It is expected that the new generation of RCMs improve the representation of climate processes making it more attractive for impact studies. Given the cost of RCMs, it is ascertain to identify whether high-resolution RCMs allow offering more details than what is simulated in GCMs or RCMs with coarser resolution to address impacts on water resources. This study aims to assess the added value of RCM with emphasis on using high-resolution climate models. More specifically is how the hydrological cycle is represented when the resolution in climate models is increased (45 vs 200km; 15 vs 45km). We used simulations from the Canadian RCM (CRCM) driven by reanalyses integrated on high-resolution domains (45 and 15km) and CRCM driven by multiple members of two GCMs (the Canadian CGCM3; the German ECHAM5) with a horizontal resolution of 45 km. CRCM data and data from their host GCMs are compared to observation over 1971-2000. Precipitation and temperature from CRCM and GCMs' simulations are inputted into the hydrological SWAT model to simulate streamflow in watersheds for the historical period. The selected watersheds are two basins in Quebec (QC) and one basin in British Columbia (BC), Canada. CRCM-45km driven by GCMs performs well in representing precipitation but shows a cold bias of 3.3°C. Such bias in temperature is more significant for the BC basin (4.5°C) due to the Rocky Mountains. For the CRCM-45km/GCM combination (CGCM3 or ECHAM5), comparable skills in reproducing the observed climate are identified even though CGCM3 analyzed alone provides more accurate indication of climatology in the basins than ECHAM5. When we compared to GCMs results, CRCM-45km

  7. Cumulus Microphysics and Climate Sensitivity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    del Genio, Anthony D.; Kovari, William; Yao, Mao-Sung; Jonas, Jeffrey

    2005-07-01

    Precipitation processes in convective storms are potentially a major regulator of cloud feedback. An unresolved issue is how the partitioning of convective condensate between precipitation-size particles that fall out of updrafts and smaller particles that are detrained to form anvil clouds will change as the climate warms. Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) observations of tropical oceanic convective storms indicate higher precipitation efficiency at warmer sea surface temperature (SST) but also suggest that cumulus anvil sizes, albedos, and ice water paths become insensitive to warming at high temperatures. International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) data show that instantaneous cirrus and deep convective cloud fractions are positively correlated and increase with SST except at the highest temperatures, but are sensitive to variations in large-scale vertical velocity. A simple conceptual model based on a Marshall-Palmer drop size distribution, empirical terminal velocity-particle size relationships, and assumed cumulus updraft speeds reproduces the observed tendency for detrained condensate to approach a limiting value at high SST. These results suggest that the climatic behavior of observed tropical convective clouds is intermediate between the extremes required to support the thermostat and adaptive iris hypotheses.

  8. Climate sensitivity of marine energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harrison, G.P.; Wallace, A.R.

    2005-01-01

    Marine energy has a significant role to play in lowering carbon emissions within the energy sector. Paradoxically, it may be susceptible to changes in climate that will result from rising carbon emissions. Wind patterns are expected to change and this will alter wave regimes. Despite a lack of definite proof of a link to global warming, wind and wave conditions have been changing over the past few decades. Changes in the wind and wave climate will affect offshore wind and wave energy conversion: where the resource is constrained, production and economic performance may suffer; alternatively, stormier climates may create survival issues. Here, a relatively simple sensitivity study is used to quantify how changes in mean wind speed - as a proxy for wider climate change - influence wind and wave energy production and economics. (author)

  9. Land and Land-use Change in the Climate Sensitive High Plains: An Automated Approach with Landsat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goetz, Alexander F.; Williams, D. L. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    The High Plains is an economically important and climatologically sensitive region of the United States and Canada. The High Plains contain 100,000 sq km of Holocene sand dunes and sand sheets that are currently stabilized by natural vegetation. Droughts and the larger threat of global warming are climate phenomena that could cause depletion of natural vegetation and make this region susceptible to sand dune reactivation. The original proposal was directed toward the use of Landsat TM data to establish the state and ongoing changes of the surface in the 1.2 million sq. km, semi-arid High Plains region of the central US, A key objective was to develop a model to predict the reactivation of the 100,000 sq. km of Holocene dunes found on the High Plains during an extended drought. At least one Landsat 5 image per year for 1985, 1988 and 1996 was obtained for 32 scenes on the High Plains to coincide with wet and dry years. Additional Landsat 7 data were acquired for 1999 and 2000 primarily for Colorado and Nebraska. As luck would have it, there was no severe drought during the study period 1985-2000. Attention was focused on developing methods for mapping dry vs. green vegetation on sparsely vegetated rangelands in sandy soils, since these were the areas most susceptible to surface reactivation during a drought.

  10. Spatial variability in sensitivity of reference crop ET to accuracy of climate data in the Texas High Plains

    Science.gov (United States)

    A detailed sensitivity analysis was conducted to determine the relative effects of measurement errors in climate data input parameters on the accuracy of calculated reference crop evapotranspiration (ET) using the ASCE-EWRI Standardized Reference ET Equation. Data for the period of 1995 to 2008, fro...

  11. Potential Influence of Climate Change on the Acid-Sensitivity of High-Elevation Lakes in the Georgia Basin, British Columbia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Donna Strang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Global climate models predict increased temperature and precipitation in the Georgia Basin, British Colmbia; however, little is known about the impacts on high-elevation regions. In the current study, fifty-four high-elevation lakes (754–2005 m a.s.l. were studied to investigate the potential influence of climate change on surface water acid-sensitivity. Redundancy analysis indicated that the concentration of nitrate, dissolved organic carbon, and associated metals was significantly influenced by climate parameters. Furthermore, these components differed significantly between biogeoclimatic zones. Modelled soil base cation weathering for a subset of the study lakes (n=11 was predicted to increase by 9% per 1°C increase in temperature. Changes in temperature and precipitation may potentially decrease the pH of surface waters owing to changes in anthropogenic deposition and organic acid production. In contrast, increased soil base cation weathering may increase the critical load (of acidity of high-elevation lakes. Ultimately, the determining factor will be whether enhanced base cation weathering is sufficient to buffer changes in natural and anthropogenic acidity. Mountain and high-elevation regions are considered early warning systems to climate change; as such, future monitoring is imperative to assess the potential ramifications of climate change on the hydrochemistry and acid-sensitivity of these surface waters.

  12. High-Latitude Stratospheric Sensitivity to QBO Width in a Chemistry-Climate Model with Parameterized Ozone Chemistry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hurwitz, M. M.; Braesicke, P.; Pyle, J. A.

    2010-01-01

    In a pair of idealized simulations with a simplified chemistry-climate model, the sensitivity of the wintertime Arctic stratosphere to variability in the width of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is assessed. The width of the QBO appears to have equal influence on the Arctic stratosphere as does the phase (i.e. the Holton-Tan mechanism). In the model, a wider QBO acts like a preferential shift toward the easterly phase of the QBO, where zonal winds at 60 N tend to be relatively weaker, while 50 hPa geopotential heights and polar ozone values tend to be higher.

  13. Inferring climate sensitivity from volcanic events

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boer, G.J. [Environment Canada, University of Victoria, Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Victoria, BC (Canada); Stowasser, M.; Hamilton, K. [University of Hawaii, International Pacific Research Centre, Honolulu, HI (United States)

    2007-04-15

    The possibility of estimating the equilibrium climate sensitivity of the earth-system from observations following explosive volcanic eruptions is assessed in the context of a perfect model study. Two modern climate models (the CCCma CGCM3 and the NCAR CCSM2) with different equilibrium climate sensitivities are employed in the investigation. The models are perturbed with the same transient volcano-like forcing and the responses analysed to infer climate sensitivities. For volcano-like forcing the global mean surface temperature responses of the two models are very similar, despite their differing equilibrium climate sensitivities, indicating that climate sensitivity cannot be inferred from the temperature record alone even if the forcing is known. Equilibrium climate sensitivities can be reasonably determined only if both the forcing and the change in heat storage in the system are known very accurately. The geographic patterns of clear-sky atmosphere/surface and cloud feedbacks are similar for both the transient volcano-like and near-equilibrium constant forcing simulations showing that, to a considerable extent, the same feedback processes are invoked, and determine the climate sensitivity, in both cases. (orig.)

  14. Climate sensitivity of marine energy

    OpenAIRE

    Harrison, Gareth; Wallace, Robin

    2005-01-01

    Marine energy has a significant role to play in lowering carbon emissions within the energy sector. Paradoxically, it may be susceptible to changes in climate that will result from rising carbon emissions. Wind patterns are expected to change and this will alter wave regimes. Despite a lack of definite proof of a link to global warming, wind and wave conditions have been changing over the past few decades. Changes in the wind and wave climate will affect offshore wind and wave energy conversi...

  15. Lessons on climate sensitivity from past climate changes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    von der Heydt, A.S.; Dijkstra, H.A.; van de Wal, R.S.W.; Caballero, R.; Crucifix, M.; Foster, G.L.; Huber, M.; Kohler, P.; Rohling, E.; Valdes, P.J.; Ashwin, P.; Bathiany, S.; Berends, T.; van Bree, L.G.J.; Ditlevsen, P.; Ghil, M.; Haywood, A.; Katzav, J.K.; Lohmann, G.; Lohmann, J.; Lucarini, V.; Marzocchi, A.; Palike, H.; Ruvalcaba Baroni, I.; Simon, D.; Sluijs, A.; Stap, L.B.; Tantet, A.; Viebahn, J.; Ziegler, M.

    2016-01-01

    Over the last decade, our understanding of climate sensitivity has improved considerably. The climate system shows variability on many timescales, is subject to non-stationary forcing and it is most likely out of equilibrium with the changes in the radiative forcing. Slow and fast feedbacks

  16. Report of the workshop on Climate Sensitivity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2004-01-01

    The IPCC Working Group I (WGI) held this Workshop on Climate Sensitivity as a major keystone in activities preparing for the WGI contribution to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). One of the most important parameters in climate science is the 'climate sensitivity', broadly defined as the global mean temperature change for a given forcing, often that of a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Climate sensitivity has played a central role throughout the history of IPCC in interpretation of model outputs, in evaluation of future climate changes expected from various scenarios, and it is closely linked to attribution of currently observed climate changes. An ongoing challenge to models and to climate projections has been to better define this key parameter, and to understand the differences in computed values between various models. Throughout the last three IPCC assessments the climate sensitivity has been estimated as being in the range 1.5 to 4.5 deg. C for CO 2 doubling (i.e., uncertain by a factor of three), making this parameter central to discussions of uncertainty in climate change. The aims of the workshop were to: - Evaluate a range of climate model results so as to relate different climate sensitivity estimates to differences descriptions of physical processes, particularly those related to atmospheric water vapor, clouds, lapse rate changes, ocean heat uptake, treatment of evapotranspiration, land-atmosphere coupling, etc.; - Obtain a more comprehensive picture of the relationships between climate sensitivity and other model features such as resolution, numerical approach, radiative transfer parameters, etc.; - Consider how current, historical, and paleo-climatic data can aid in the determination of the likely range of climate sensitivity; - Improve the understanding of the interpretation and limits of the climate sensitivity concept, including for example possible dependencies upon different forcing agents, predictability questions, and transient

  17. Report of the workshop on Climate Sensitivity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2004-07-01

    The IPCC Working Group I (WGI) held this Workshop on Climate Sensitivity as a major keystone in activities preparing for the WGI contribution to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). One of the most important parameters in climate science is the 'climate sensitivity', broadly defined as the global mean temperature change for a given forcing, often that of a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Climate sensitivity has played a central role throughout the history of IPCC in interpretation of model outputs, in evaluation of future climate changes expected from various scenarios, and it is closely linked to attribution of currently observed climate changes. An ongoing challenge to models and to climate projections has been to better define this key parameter, and to understand the differences in computed values between various models. Throughout the last three IPCC assessments the climate sensitivity has been estimated as being in the range 1.5 to 4.5 deg. C for CO{sub 2} doubling (i.e., uncertain by a factor of three), making this parameter central to discussions of uncertainty in climate change. The aims of the workshop were to: - Evaluate a range of climate model results so as to relate different climate sensitivity estimates to differences descriptions of physical processes, particularly those related to atmospheric water vapor, clouds, lapse rate changes, ocean heat uptake, treatment of evapotranspiration, land-atmosphere coupling, etc.; - Obtain a more comprehensive picture of the relationships between climate sensitivity and other model features such as resolution, numerical approach, radiative transfer parameters, etc.; - Consider how current, historical, and paleo-climatic data can aid in the determination of the likely range of climate sensitivity; - Improve the understanding of the interpretation and limits of the climate sensitivity concept, including for example possible dependencies upon different forcing agents, predictability questions

  18. Report of the workshop on Climate Sensitivity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2004-07-01

    The IPCC Working Group I (WGI) held this Workshop on Climate Sensitivity as a major keystone in activities preparing for the WGI contribution to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). One of the most important parameters in climate science is the 'climate sensitivity', broadly defined as the global mean temperature change for a given forcing, often that of a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Climate sensitivity has played a central role throughout the history of IPCC in interpretation of model outputs, in evaluation of future climate changes expected from various scenarios, and it is closely linked to attribution of currently observed climate changes. An ongoing challenge to models and to climate projections has been to better define this key parameter, and to understand the differences in computed values between various models. Throughout the last three IPCC assessments the climate sensitivity has been estimated as being in the range 1.5 to 4.5 deg. C for CO{sub 2} doubling (i.e., uncertain by a factor of three), making this parameter central to discussions of uncertainty in climate change. The aims of the workshop were to: - Evaluate a range of climate model results so as to relate different climate sensitivity estimates to differences descriptions of physical processes, particularly those related to atmospheric water vapor, clouds, lapse rate changes, ocean heat uptake, treatment of evapotranspiration, land-atmosphere coupling, etc.; - Obtain a more comprehensive picture of the relationships between climate sensitivity and other model features such as resolution, numerical approach, radiative transfer parameters, etc.; - Consider how current, historical, and paleo-climatic data can aid in the determination of the likely range of climate sensitivity; - Improve the understanding of the interpretation and limits of the climate sensitivity concept, including for example possible dependencies upon different forcing agents, predictability questions, and

  19. Sensitivity of wave energy to climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Harrison, Gareth; Wallace, Robin

    2005-01-01

    Wave energy will have a key role in meeting renewable energy targets en route to a low carbon economy. However, in common with other renewables, it may be sensitive to changes in climate resulting from rising carbon emissions. Changes in wind patterns are widely anticipated and this will ultimately alter wave regimes. Indeed, evidence indicates that wave heights have been changing over the last 40 years, although there is no proven link to global warming. Changes in the wave climate will impa...

  20. Sensitivity of Climate to Changes in NDVI

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bounoua, L.; Collatz, G. J.; Los, S. O.; Sellers, P. J.; Dazlich, D. A.; Tucker, C. J.; Randall, D. A.

    1999-01-01

    The sensitivity of global and regional climate to changes in vegetation density is investigated using a coupled biosphere-atmosphere model. The magnitude of the vegetation changes and their spatial distribution are based on natural decadal variability of the normalized difference vegetation index (ndvi). Different scenarios using maximum and minimum vegetation cover were derived from satellite records spanning the period 1982-1990. Albedo decreased in the northern latitudes and increased in the tropics with increased ndvi. The increase in vegetation density revealed that the vegetation's physiological response was constrained by the limits of the available water resources. The difference between the maximum and minimum vegetation scenarios resulted in a 46% increase in absorbed visible solar radiation and a similar increase in gross photosynthetic C02 uptake on a global annual basis. This caused the canopy transpiration and interception fluxes to increase, and reduced those from the soil. The redistribution of the surface energy fluxes substantially reduced the Bowen ratio during the growing season, resulting in cooler and moister near-surface climate, except when soil moisture was limiting. Important effects of increased vegetation on climate are : (1) A cooling of about 1.8 K in the northern latitudes during the growing season and a slight warming during the winter, which is primarily due to the masking of high albedo of snow by a denser canopy. and (2) A year round cooling of 0.8 K in the tropics. These results suggest that increases in vegetation density could partially compensate for parallel increases in greenhouse warming . Increasing vegetation density globally caused both evapotranspiration and precipitation to increase. Evapotranspiration, however increased more than precipitation resulting in a global soil-water deficit of about 15 %. A spectral analysis on the simulated results showed that changes in the state of vegetation could affect the low

  1. Sensitivity of Alpine Snow and Streamflow Regimes to Climate Changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rasouli, K.; Pomeroy, J. W.; Marks, D. G.; Bernhardt, M.

    2014-12-01

    Understanding the sensitivity of hydrological processes to climate change in alpine areas with snow dominated regimes is of paramount importance as alpine basins show both high runoff efficiency associated with the melt of the seasonal snowpack and great sensitivity of snow processes to temperature change. In this study, meteorological data measured in a selection of alpine headwaters basins including Reynolds Mountain East, Idaho, USA, Wolf Creek, Yukon in Canada, and Zugspitze Mountain, Germany with climates ranging from arctic to continental temperate were used to study the snow and streamflow sensitivity to climate change. All research sites have detailed multi-decadal meteorological and snow measurements. The Cold Regions Hydrological Modelling platform (CRHM) was used to create a model representing a typical alpine headwater basin discretized into hydrological response units with physically based representations of snow redistribution by wind, complex terrain snowmelt energetics and runoff processes in alpine tundra. The sensitivity of snow hydrology to climate change was investigated by changing air temperature and precipitation using weather generating methods based on the change factors obtained from different climate model projections for future and current periods. The basin mean and spatial variability of peak snow water equivalent, sublimation loss, duration of snow season, snowmelt rates, streamflow peak, and basin discharge were assessed under varying climate scenarios and the most sensitive hydrological mechanisms to the changes in the different alpine climates were detected. The results show that snow hydrology in colder alpine climates is more resilient to warming than that in warmer climates, but that compensatory factors to warming such as reduced blowing snow sublimation loss and reduced melt rate should also be assessed when considering climate change impacts on alpine hydrology.

  2. High-Sensitivity Spectrophotometry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, T. D.

    1982-01-01

    Selected high-sensitivity spectrophotometric methods are examined, and comparisons are made of their relative strengths and weaknesses and the circumstances for which each can best be applied. Methods include long path cells, noise reduction, laser intracavity absorption, thermocouple calorimetry, photoacoustic methods, and thermo-optical methods.…

  3. Highly Sensitive Optical Receivers

    CERN Document Server

    Schneider, Kerstin

    2006-01-01

    Highly Sensitive Optical Receivers primarily treats the circuit design of optical receivers with external photodiodes. Continuous-mode and burst-mode receivers are compared. The monograph first summarizes the basics of III/V photodetectors, transistor and noise models, bit-error rate, sensitivity and analog circuit design, thus enabling readers to understand the circuits described in the main part of the book. In order to cover the topic comprehensively, detailed descriptions of receivers for optical data communication in general and, in particular, optical burst-mode receivers in deep-sub-µm CMOS are presented. Numerous detailed and elaborate illustrations facilitate better understanding.

  4. Sensitivity of streamflow to climate change in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grantham, T.; Carlisle, D.; Wolock, D.; McCabe, G. J.; Wieczorek, M.; Howard, J.

    2015-12-01

    Trends of decreasing snowpack and increasing risk of drought are looming challenges for California water resource management. Increasing vulnerability of the state's natural water supplies threatens California's social-economic vitality and the health of its freshwater ecosystems. Despite growing awareness of potential climate change impacts, robust management adaptation has been hindered by substantial uncertainty in future climate predictions for the region. Down-scaled global climate model (GCM) projections uniformly suggest future warming of the region, but projections are highly variable with respect to the direction and magnitude of change in regional precipitation. Here we examine the sensitivity of California surface water supplies to climate variation independently of GCMs. We use a statistical approach to construct predictive models of monthly streamflow based on historical climate and river basin features. We then propagate an ensemble of synthetic climate simulations through the models to assess potential streamflow responses to changes in temperature and precipitation in different months and regions of the state. We also consider the range of streamflow change predicted by bias-corrected downscaled GCMs. Our results indicate that the streamflow in the xeric and coastal mountain regions of California is more sensitive to changes in precipitation than temperature, whereas streamflow in the interior mountain region responds strongly to changes in both temperature and precipitation. Mean climate projections for 2025-2075 from GCM ensembles are highly variable, indicating streamflow changes of -50% to +150% relative to baseline (1980-2010) for most months and regions. By quantifying the sensitivity of streamflow to climate change, rather than attempting to predict future hydrologic conditions based on uncertain GCM projections, these results should be more informative to water managers seeking to assess, and potentially reduce, the vulnerability of surface

  5. Thermodynamics of climate change: generalized sensitivities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Lucarini

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Using a recent theoretical approach, we study how global warming impacts the thermodynamics of the climate system by performing experiments with a simplified yet Earth-like climate model. The intensity of the Lorenz energy cycle, the Carnot efficiency, the material entropy production, and the degree of irreversibility of the system change monotonically with the CO2 concentration. Moreover, these quantities feature an approximately linear behaviour with respect to the logarithm of the CO2 concentration in a relatively wide range. These generalized sensitivities suggest that the climate becomes less efficient, more irreversible, and features higher entropy production as it becomes warmer, with changes in the latent heat fluxes playing a predominant role. These results may be of help for explaining recent findings obtained with state of the art climate models regarding how increases in CO2 concentration impact the vertical stratification of the tropical and extratropical atmosphere and the position of the storm tracks.

  6. Separating sensitivity from exposure in assessing extinction risk from climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dickinson, Maria G; Orme, C David L; Suttle, K Blake; Mace, Georgina M

    2014-11-04

    Predictive frameworks of climate change extinction risk generally focus on the magnitude of climate change a species is expected to experience and the potential for that species to track suitable climate. A species' risk of extinction from climate change will depend, in part, on the magnitude of climate change the species experiences, its exposure. However, exposure is only one component of risk. A species' risk of extinction will also depend on its intrinsic ability to tolerate changing climate, its sensitivity. We examine exposure and sensitivity individually for two example taxa, terrestrial amphibians and mammals. We examine how these factors are related among species and across regions and how explicit consideration of each component of risk may affect predictions of climate change impacts. We find that species' sensitivities to climate change are not congruent with their exposures. Many highly sensitive species face low exposure to climate change and many highly exposed species are relatively insensitive. Separating sensitivity from exposure reveals patterns in the causes and drivers of species' extinction risk that may not be evident solely from predictions of climate change. Our findings emphasise the importance of explicitly including sensitivity and exposure to climate change in assessments of species' extinction risk.

  7. Regional climate model sensitivity to domain size

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leduc, Martin; Laprise, René

    2009-05-01

    Regional climate models are increasingly used to add small-scale features that are not present in their lateral boundary conditions (LBC). It is well known that the limited area over which a model is integrated must be large enough to allow the full development of small-scale features. On the other hand, integrations on very large domains have shown important departures from the driving data, unless large scale nudging is applied. The issue of domain size is studied here by using the “perfect model” approach. This method consists first of generating a high-resolution climatic simulation, nicknamed big brother (BB), over a large domain of integration. The next step is to degrade this dataset with a low-pass filter emulating the usual coarse-resolution LBC. The filtered nesting data (FBB) are hence used to drive a set of four simulations (LBs for Little Brothers), with the same model, but on progressively smaller domain sizes. The LB statistics for a climate sample of four winter months are compared with BB over a common region. The time average (stationary) and transient-eddy standard deviation patterns of the LB atmospheric fields generally improve in terms of spatial correlation with the reference (BB) when domain gets smaller. The extraction of the small-scale features by using a spectral filter allows detecting important underestimations of the transient-eddy variability in the vicinity of the inflow boundary, which can penalize the use of small domains (less than 100 × 100 grid points). The permanent “spatial spin-up” corresponds to the characteristic distance that the large-scale flow needs to travel before developing small-scale features. The spin-up distance tends to grow in size at higher levels in the atmosphere.

  8. Regional climate model sensitivity to domain size

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leduc, Martin [Universite du Quebec a Montreal, Canadian Regional Climate Modelling and Diagnostics (CRCMD) Network, ESCER Centre, Montreal (Canada); UQAM/Ouranos, Montreal, QC (Canada); Laprise, Rene [Universite du Quebec a Montreal, Canadian Regional Climate Modelling and Diagnostics (CRCMD) Network, ESCER Centre, Montreal (Canada)

    2009-05-15

    Regional climate models are increasingly used to add small-scale features that are not present in their lateral boundary conditions (LBC). It is well known that the limited area over which a model is integrated must be large enough to allow the full development of small-scale features. On the other hand, integrations on very large domains have shown important departures from the driving data, unless large scale nudging is applied. The issue of domain size is studied here by using the ''perfect model'' approach. This method consists first of generating a high-resolution climatic simulation, nicknamed big brother (BB), over a large domain of integration. The next step is to degrade this dataset with a low-pass filter emulating the usual coarse-resolution LBC. The filtered nesting data (FBB) are hence used to drive a set of four simulations (LBs for Little Brothers), with the same model, but on progressively smaller domain sizes. The LB statistics for a climate sample of four winter months are compared with BB over a common region. The time average (stationary) and transient-eddy standard deviation patterns of the LB atmospheric fields generally improve in terms of spatial correlation with the reference (BB) when domain gets smaller. The extraction of the small-scale features by using a spectral filter allows detecting important underestimations of the transient-eddy variability in the vicinity of the inflow boundary, which can penalize the use of small domains (less than 100 x 100 grid points). The permanent ''spatial spin-up'' corresponds to the characteristic distance that the large-scale flow needs to travel before developing small-scale features. The spin-up distance tends to grow in size at higher levels in the atmosphere. (orig.)

  9. Climate and climate change sensitivity to model configuration in the Canadian RCM over North America

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    De Elia, Ramon [Ouranos Consortium on Regional Climate and Adaptation to Climate Change, Montreal (Canada); Centre ESCER, Univ. du Quebec a Montreal (Canada); Cote, Helene [Ouranos Consortium on Regional Climate and Adaptation to Climate Change, Montreal (Canada)

    2010-06-15

    Climate simulations performed with Regional Climate Models (RCMs) have been found to show sensitivity to parameter settings. The origin, consequences and interpretations of this sensitivity are varied, but it is generally accepted that sensitivity studies are very important for a better understanding and a more cautious manipulation of RCM results. In this work we present sensitivity experiments performed on the simulated climate produced by the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM). In addition to climate sensitivity to parameter variation, we analyse the impact of the sensitivity on the climate change signal simulated by the CRCM. These studies are performed on 30-year long simulated present and future seasonal climates, and we have analysed the effect of seven kinds of configuration modifications: CRCM initial conditions, lateral boundary condition (LBC), nesting update interval, driving Global Climate Model (GCM), driving GCM member, large-scale spectral nudging, CRCM version, and domain size. Results show that large changes in both the driving model and the CRCM physics seem to be the main sources of sensitivity for the simulated climate and the climate change. Their effects dominate those of configuration issues, such as the use or not of large-scale nudging, domain size, or LBC update interval. Results suggest that in most cases, differences between simulated climates for different CRCM configurations are not transferred to the estimated climate change signal: in general, these tend to cancel each other out. (orig.)

  10. Assessing climate-sensitive ecosystems in the southeastern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costanza, Jennifer; Beck, Scott; Pyne, Milo; Terando, Adam; Rubino, Matthew J.; White, Rickie; Collazo, Jaime

    2016-08-11

    Climate change impacts ecosystems in many ways, from effects on species to phenology to wildfire dynamics. Assessing the potential vulnerability of ecosystems to future changes in climate is an important first step in prioritizing and planning for conservation. Although assessments of climate change vulnerability commonly are done for species, fewer have been done for ecosystems. To aid regional conservation planning efforts, we assessed climate change vulnerability for ecosystems in the Southeastern United States and Caribbean.First, we solicited input from experts to create a list of candidate ecosystems for assessment. From that list, 12 ecosystems were selected for a vulnerability assessment that was based on a synthesis of available geographic information system (GIS) data and literature related to 3 components of vulnerability—sensitivity, exposure, and adaptive capacity. This literature and data synthesis comprised “Phase I” of the assessment. Sensitivity is the degree to which the species or processes in the ecosystem are affected by climate. Exposure is the likely future change in important climate and sea level variables. Adaptive capacity is the degree to which ecosystems can adjust to changing conditions. Where available, GIS data relevant to each of these components were used. For example, we summarized observed and projected climate, protected areas existing in 2011, projected sea-level rise, and projected urbanization across each ecosystem’s distribution. These summaries were supplemented with information in the literature, and a short narrative assessment was compiled for each ecosystem. We also summarized all information into a qualitative vulnerability rating for each ecosystem.Next, for 2 of the 12 ecosystems (East Gulf Coastal Plain Near-Coast Pine Flatwoods and Nashville Basin Limestone Glade and Woodland), the NatureServe Habitat Climate Change Vulnerability Index (HCCVI) framework was used as an alternative approach for assessing

  11. Climate Sensitivity, Sea Level, and Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Russell, Gary; Kharecha, Pushker

    2013-01-01

    Cenozoic temperature, sea level and CO2 covariations provide insights into climate sensitivity to external forcings and sea-level sensitivity to climate change. Climate sensitivity depends on the initial climate state, but potentially can be accurately inferred from precise palaeoclimate data. Pleistocene climate oscillations yield a fast-feedback climate sensitivity of 3+/-1deg C for a 4 W/sq m CO2 forcing if Holocene warming relative to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is used as calibration, but the error (uncertainty) is substantial and partly subjective because of poorly defined LGM global temperature and possible human influences in the Holocene. Glacial-to-interglacial climate change leading to the prior (Eemian) interglacial is less ambiguous and implies a sensitivity in the upper part of the above range, i.e. 3-4deg C for a 4 W/sq m CO2 forcing. Slow feedbacks, especially change of ice sheet size and atmospheric CO2, amplify the total Earth system sensitivity by an amount that depends on the time scale considered. Ice sheet response time is poorly defined, but we show that the slow response and hysteresis in prevailing ice sheet models are exaggerated. We use a global model, simplified to essential processes, to investigate state dependence of climate sensitivity, finding an increased sensitivity towards warmer climates, as low cloud cover is diminished and increased water vapour elevates the tropopause. Burning all fossil fuels, we conclude, would make most of the planet uninhabitable by humans, thus calling into question strategies that emphasize adaptation to climate change.

  12. Sensitivity of climate mitigation strategies to natural disturbances

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Le Page, Y; Hurtt, G; Thomson, A M; Bond-Lamberty, B; Patel, P; Wise, M; Calvin, K; Kyle, P; Clarke, L; Edmonds, J; Janetos, A

    2013-01-01

    The present and future concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide depends on both anthropogenic and natural sources and sinks of carbon. Most proposed climate mitigation strategies rely on a progressive transition to carbon-efficient technologies to reduce industrial emissions, substantially supported by policies to maintain or enhance the terrestrial carbon stock in forests and other ecosystems. This strategy may be challenged if terrestrial sequestration capacity is affected by future climate feedbacks, but how and to what extent is little understood. Here, we show that climate mitigation strategies are highly sensitive to future natural disturbance rates (e.g. fires, hurricanes, droughts), because of the potential effect of disturbances on the terrestrial carbon balance. Generally, altered disturbance rates affect the pace of societal and technological transitions required to achieve the mitigation target, with substantial consequences on the energy sector and the global economy. An understanding of the future dynamics and consequences of natural disturbances on terrestrial carbon balance is thus essential for developing robust climate mitigation strategies and policies. (letter)

  13. High order depletion sensitivity analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Naguib, K.; Adib, M.; Morcos, H.N.

    2002-01-01

    A high order depletion sensitivity method was applied to calculate the sensitivities of build-up of actinides in the irradiated fuel due to cross-section uncertainties. An iteration method based on Taylor series expansion was applied to construct stationary principle, from which all orders of perturbations were calculated. The irradiated EK-10 and MTR-20 fuels at their maximum burn-up of 25% and 65% respectively were considered for sensitivity analysis. The results of calculation show that, in case of EK-10 fuel (low burn-up), the first order sensitivity was found to be enough to perform an accuracy of 1%. While in case of MTR-20 (high burn-up) the fifth order was found to provide 3% accuracy. A computer code SENS was developed to provide the required calculations

  14. Runoff sensitivity to climate change in the Nile River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasan, Emad; Tarhule, Aondover; Kirstetter, Pierre-Emmanuel; Clark, Race; Hong, Yang

    2018-06-01

    In data scarce basins, such as the Nile River Basin (NRB) in Africa, constraints related to data availability, quality, and access often complicate attempts to estimate runoff sensitivity using conventional methods. In this paper, we show that by integrating the concept of the aridity index (AI) (derived from the Budyko curve) and climate elasticity, we can obtain the first order response of the runoff sensitivity using minimal data input and modeling expertise or experience. The concept of runoff elasticity relies on the fact that the energy available for evapotranspiration plays a major role in determining whether the precipitation received within a drainage basin generates runoff. The approach does not account for human impacts on runoff modification and or diversions. By making use of freely available gauge-corrected satellite data for precipitation, temperature, runoff, and potential evapotranspiration, we derived the sensitivity indicator (β) to determine the runoff response to changes in precipitation and temperature for four climatic zones in the NRB, namely, tropical, subtropical, semiarid and arid zones. The proposed sensitivity indicator can be partitioned into different elasticity components i.e: precipitation (εp), potential evapotranspiration (εETp), temperature (εT) and the total elasticity (εtot) . These elasticities allow robust quantification of the runoff response to the potential changes in precipitation and temperature with a high degree of accuracy. Results indicate that the tropical zone is energy-constrained with low sensitivity, (β 1.0) . The subtropical-highland zone moves between energy-limited to water-limited conditions during periods of wet and dry spells with varying sensitivity. The semiarid and arid zones are water limited, with high sensitivity, (β > 1.0) . The calculated runoff elasticities show that a 10% decrease in precipitation leads to a decrease in runoff of between 19% in the tropical zone and 30% in the arid zones

  15. Implications for Climate Sensitivity from the Response to Individual Forcings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marvel, Kate; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Miller, Ron L.; Nazarenko, Larissa

    2015-01-01

    Climate sensitivity to doubled CO2 is a widely-used metric of the large-scale response to external forcing. Climate models predict a wide range for two commonly used definitions: the transient climate response (TCR: the warming after 70 years of CO2 concentrations that riseat 1 per year), and the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS: the equilibrium temperature change following a doubling of CO2 concentrations). Many observational datasets have been used to constrain these values, including temperature trends over the recent past 16, inferences from paleo-climate and process-based constraints from the modern satellite eras. However, as the IPCC recently reported different classes of observational constraints produce somewhat incongruent ranges. Here we show that climate sensitivity estimates derived from recent observations must account for the efficacy of each forcing active during the historical period. When we use single forcing experiments to estimate these efficacies and calculate climate sensitivity from the observed twentieth-century warming, our estimates of both TCR and ECS are revised upward compared to previous studies, improving the consistency with independent constraints.

  16. A sensitive slope: estimating landscape patterns of forest resilience in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jill F. Johnstone; Eliot J.B. McIntire; Eric J. Pedersen; Gregory King; Michael J.F. Pisaric

    2010-01-01

    Changes in Earth's environment are expected to stimulate changes in the composition and structure of ecosystems, but it is still unclear how the dynamics of these responses will play out over time. In long-lived forest systems, communities of established individuals may be resistant to respond to directional climate change, but may be highly sensitive to climate...

  17. The Southern Oscillation in a coupled GCM: Implications for climate sensitivity and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meehl, G.A.

    1990-01-01

    Results are presented from a global coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation climate model developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research. The atmospheric part of the coupled model is a global spectral (R15, 4.5 degree latitude by 7.5 degree longitude, 9 layers in the vertical) general circulation model. The ocean is coarse-grid (5 degree latitude by 5 degree longitude, 4 layers in the vertical) global general circulation model. The coupled model includes a simple thermodynamic sea-ice model. Due mainly to inherent limitations in the ocean model, the coupled model simulates sea surface temperatures that are too low in the tropics and too high in the extratropics in the mean. In spite of these limitations, the coupled model simulates active interannual variability of the global climate system involving signals in the tropical Pacific that resemble, in some respects, the observed Southern Oscillation. These signals in the tropics are associated with teleconnections to the extratropics of both hemispheres. The implications of this model-simulated interannual variability of the coupled system relating to climate sensitivity and climate change due to an increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide are discussed

  18. The Southern Oscillation in a coupled GCM: Implications for climate sensitivity and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meehl, G.A.

    1991-01-01

    Results are presented from a global coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation climate model developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research. The atmospheric part of the coupled model is a global spectral (R15, 4.5 degree latitude by 7.5 degree longitude, 9 layers in the vertical) general circulation model. The ocean is coarse-grid (5 degree latitude by 5 degree longitude, 4 layers in the vertical) global general circulation model. The coupled model includes a simple thermodynamic sea-ice model. Due mainly to inherent limitations in the ocean model, the coupled model simulates sea surface temperatures that are too low in the tropics and too high in the extratropics in the mean. In spite of these limitations, the coupled model simulates active interannual variability of the global climate system involving signals in the tropical Pacific that resemble, in some respects, the observed Southern Oscillation. These signals in the tropics are associated with teleconnections to the extratropics of both hemispheres. The implications of this model-simulated interannual variability of the coupled system relating to climate sensitivity and climate change due to an increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide are discussed. 25 refs.; 9 figs

  19. What Climate Sensitivity Index Is Most Useful for Projections?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grose, Michael R.; Gregory, Jonathan; Colman, Robert; Andrews, Timothy

    2018-02-01

    Transient climate response (TCR), transient response at 140 years (T140), and equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) indices are intended as benchmarks for comparing the magnitude of climate response projected by climate models. It is generally assumed that TCR or T140 would explain more variability between models than ECS for temperature change over the 21st century, since this timescale is the realm of transient climate change. Here we find that TCR explains more variability across Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 than ECS for global temperature change since preindustrial, for 50 or 100 year global trends up to the present, and for projected change under representative concentration pathways in regions of delayed warming such as the Southern Ocean. However, unexpectedly, we find that ECS correlates higher than TCR for projected change from the present in the global mean and in most regions. This higher correlation does not relate to aerosol forcing, and the physical cause requires further investigation.

  20. Deep time evidence for climate sensitivity increase with warming

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shaffer, Gary; Huber, Matthew; Rondanelli, Roberto

    2016-01-01

    warming analogue. We obtain constrained estimates of CO2 and climate sensitivity before and during the PETM and of the PETM carbon input amount and nature. Sensitivity increased from 3.3-5.6 to 3.7-6.5K (Kelvin) into the PETM. When taken together with Last Glacial Maximum and modern estimates, this result...... world, but past warming events may provide insight. Here we employ paleoreconstructions and new climate-carbon model simulations in a novel framework to explore a wide scenario range for the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) carbon release and global warming event 55.8Ma ago, a possible future...

  1. Sensitivity of Hydrologic Response to Climate Model Debiasing Procedures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Channell, K.; Gronewold, A.; Rood, R. B.; Xiao, C.; Lofgren, B. M.; Hunter, T.

    2017-12-01

    Climate change is already having a profound impact on the global hydrologic cycle. In the Laurentian Great Lakes, changes in long-term evaporation and precipitation can lead to rapid water level fluctuations in the lakes, as evidenced by unprecedented change in water levels seen in the last two decades. These fluctuations often have an adverse impact on the region's human, environmental, and economic well-being, making accurate long-term water level projections invaluable to regional water resources management planning. Here we use hydrological components from a downscaled climate model (GFDL-CM3/WRF), to obtain future water supplies for the Great Lakes. We then apply a suite of bias correction procedures before propagating these water supplies through a routing model to produce lake water levels. Results using conventional bias correction methods suggest that water levels will decline by several feet in the coming century. However, methods that reflect the seasonal water cycle and explicitly debias individual hydrological components (overlake precipitation, overlake evaporation, runoff) imply that future water levels may be closer to their historical average. This discrepancy between debiased results indicates that water level forecasts are highly influenced by the bias correction method, a source of sensitivity that is commonly overlooked. Debiasing, however, does not remedy misrepresentation of the underlying physical processes in the climate model that produce these biases and contribute uncertainty to the hydrological projections. This uncertainty coupled with the differences in water level forecasts from varying bias correction methods are important for water management and long term planning in the Great Lakes region.

  2. Climate forcings and climate sensitivities diagnosed from atmospheric global circulation models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anderson, Bruce T. [Boston University, Department of Geography and Environment, Boston, MA (United States); Knight, Jeff R.; Ringer, Mark A. [Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter (United Kingdom); Deser, Clara; Phillips, Adam S. [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Yoon, Jin-Ho [University of Maryland, Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites, Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, College Park, MD (United States); Cherchi, Annalisa [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici, and Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna (Italy)

    2010-12-15

    Understanding the historical and future response of the global climate system to anthropogenic emissions of radiatively active atmospheric constituents has become a timely and compelling concern. At present, however, there are uncertainties in: the total radiative forcing associated with changes in the chemical composition of the atmosphere; the effective forcing applied to the climate system resulting from a (temporary) reduction via ocean-heat uptake; and the strength of the climate feedbacks that subsequently modify this forcing. Here a set of analyses derived from atmospheric general circulation model simulations are used to estimate the effective and total radiative forcing of the observed climate system due to anthropogenic emissions over the last 50 years of the twentieth century. They are also used to estimate the sensitivity of the observed climate system to these emissions, as well as the expected change in global surface temperatures once the climate system returns to radiative equilibrium. Results indicate that estimates of the effective radiative forcing and total radiative forcing associated with historical anthropogenic emissions differ across models. In addition estimates of the historical sensitivity of the climate to these emissions differ across models. However, results suggest that the variations in climate sensitivity and total climate forcing are not independent, and that the two vary inversely with respect to one another. As such, expected equilibrium temperature changes, which are given by the product of the total radiative forcing and the climate sensitivity, are relatively constant between models, particularly in comparison to results in which the total radiative forcing is assumed constant. Implications of these results for projected future climate forcings and subsequent responses are also discussed. (orig.)

  3. Constraining Transient Climate Sensitivity Using Coupled Climate Model Simulations of Volcanic Eruptions

    KAUST Repository

    Merlis, Timothy M.; Held, Isaac M.; Stenchikov, Georgiy L.; Zeng, Fanrong; Horowitz, Larry W.

    2014-01-01

    Coupled climate model simulations of volcanic eruptions and abrupt changes in CO2 concentration are compared in multiple realizations of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Climate Model, version 2.1 (GFDL CM2.1). The change in global-mean surface temperature (GMST) is analyzed to determine whether a fast component of the climate sensitivity of relevance to the transient climate response (TCR; defined with the 1%yr-1 CO2-increase scenario) can be estimated from shorter-time-scale climate changes. The fast component of the climate sensitivity estimated from the response of the climate model to volcanic forcing is similar to that of the simulations forced by abrupt CO2 changes but is 5%-15% smaller than the TCR. In addition, the partition between the top-of-atmosphere radiative restoring and ocean heat uptake is similar across radiative forcing agents. The possible asymmetry between warming and cooling climate perturbations, which may affect the utility of volcanic eruptions for estimating the TCR, is assessed by comparing simulations of abrupt CO2 doubling to abrupt CO2 halving. There is slightly less (~5%) GMST change in 0.5 × CO2 simulations than in 2 × CO2 simulations on the short (~10 yr) time scales relevant to the fast component of the volcanic signal. However, inferring the TCR from volcanic eruptions is more sensitive to uncertainties from internal climate variability and the estimation procedure. The response of the GMST to volcanic eruptions is similar in GFDL CM2.1 and GFDL Climate Model, version 3 (CM3), even though the latter has a higher TCR associated with a multidecadal time scale in its response. This is consistent with the expectation that the fast component of the climate sensitivity inferred from volcanic eruptions is a lower bound for the TCR.

  4. Constraining Transient Climate Sensitivity Using Coupled Climate Model Simulations of Volcanic Eruptions

    KAUST Repository

    Merlis, Timothy M.

    2014-10-01

    Coupled climate model simulations of volcanic eruptions and abrupt changes in CO2 concentration are compared in multiple realizations of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Climate Model, version 2.1 (GFDL CM2.1). The change in global-mean surface temperature (GMST) is analyzed to determine whether a fast component of the climate sensitivity of relevance to the transient climate response (TCR; defined with the 1%yr-1 CO2-increase scenario) can be estimated from shorter-time-scale climate changes. The fast component of the climate sensitivity estimated from the response of the climate model to volcanic forcing is similar to that of the simulations forced by abrupt CO2 changes but is 5%-15% smaller than the TCR. In addition, the partition between the top-of-atmosphere radiative restoring and ocean heat uptake is similar across radiative forcing agents. The possible asymmetry between warming and cooling climate perturbations, which may affect the utility of volcanic eruptions for estimating the TCR, is assessed by comparing simulations of abrupt CO2 doubling to abrupt CO2 halving. There is slightly less (~5%) GMST change in 0.5 × CO2 simulations than in 2 × CO2 simulations on the short (~10 yr) time scales relevant to the fast component of the volcanic signal. However, inferring the TCR from volcanic eruptions is more sensitive to uncertainties from internal climate variability and the estimation procedure. The response of the GMST to volcanic eruptions is similar in GFDL CM2.1 and GFDL Climate Model, version 3 (CM3), even though the latter has a higher TCR associated with a multidecadal time scale in its response. This is consistent with the expectation that the fast component of the climate sensitivity inferred from volcanic eruptions is a lower bound for the TCR.

  5. Climate sensitivity of shrub growth across the tundra biome

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Myers-Smith, Isla H.; Elmendorf, Sarah C.; Beck, Pieter S.A.

    2015-01-01

    Rapid climate warming in the tundra biome has been linked to increasing shrub dominance1–4. Shrub expansion can modify climate by altering surface albedo, energy and water balance, and permafrost2,5–8, yet the drivers of shrub growth remain poorly understood. Dendroecological data consisting...... of multi-decadal time series of annual shrub growth provide an underused resource to explore climate–growth relationships. Here, we analyse circumpolar data from 37 Arctic and alpine sites in 9 countries, including 25 species, and 42,000 annual growth records from 1,821 individuals. Our analyses...... demonstrate that the sensitivity of shrub growth to climate was: (1) heterogeneous, with European sites showing greater summer temperature sensitivity than North American sites, and (2) higher at sites with greater soil moisture and for taller shrubs (for example, alders and willows) growing at their northern...

  6. Hydrological Sensitivity of Land Use Scenarios for Climate Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boegh, E.; Friborg, T.; Hansen, K.; Jensen, R.; Seaby, L. P.

    2014-12-01

    Bringing atmospheric concentration to 550 ppm CO2 or below by 2100 will require large-scale changes to global and national energy systems, and potentially the use of land (IPCC, 2013) The Danish government aims at reducing greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) by 40 % in 1990-2020 and energy consumption to be based on 100 % renewable energy by 2035. By 2050, GHG emissions should be reduced by 80-95 %. Strategies developed to reach these goals require land use change to increase the production of biomass for bioenergy, further use of catch crops, reduced nitrogen inputs in agriculture, reduced soil tillage, afforestation and establishment of permanent grass fields. Currently, solar radiation in the growing season is not fully exploited, and it is expected that biomass production for bioenergy can be supported without reductions in food and fodder production. Impacts of climate change on the hydrological sensitivity of biomass growth and soil carbon storage are however not known. The present study evaluates the hydrological sensitivity of Danish land use options for climate mitigation in terms of crop yields (including straw for bioenergy) and net CO2 exchange for wheat, barley, maize and clover under current and future climate conditions. Hydrological sensitivity was evaluated using the agrohydrological model Daisy. Simulations during current climate conditions were in good agreement with measured dry matter, crop nitrogen content and eddy covariance fluxes of water vapour and CO2. Climate scenarios from the European ENSEMBLES database were downscaled for simulating water, nitrogen and carbon balance for 2071-2100. The biomass potential generally increase, but water stress also increases in strength and extends over a longer period, thereby increasing sensitivity to water availability. The potential of different land use scenarios to maximize vegetation cover and biomass for climate mitigation is further discussed in relation to impacts on the energy- and water balance.

  7. Range position and climate sensitivity: The structure of among-population demographic responses to climatic variation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amburgey, Staci M.; Miller, David A. W.; Grant, Evan H. Campbell; Rittenhouse, Tracy A. G.; Benard, Michael F.; Richardson, Jonathan L.; Urban, Mark C.; Hughson, Ward; Brand, Adrianne B,; Davis, Christopher J.; Hardin, Carmen R.; Paton, Peter W. C.; Raithel, Christopher J.; Relyea, Rick A.; Scott, A. Floyd; Skelly, David K.; Skidds, Dennis E.; Smith, Charles K.; Werner, Earl E.

    2018-01-01

    Species’ distributions will respond to climate change based on the relationship between local demographic processes and climate and how this relationship varies based on range position. A rarely tested demographic prediction is that populations at the extremes of a species’ climate envelope (e.g., populations in areas with the highest mean annual temperature) will be most sensitive to local shifts in climate (i.e., warming). We tested this prediction using a dynamic species distribution model linking demographic rates to variation in temperature and precipitation for wood frogs (Lithobates sylvaticus) in North America. Using long-term monitoring data from 746 populations in 27 study areas, we determined how climatic variation affected population growth rates and how these relationships varied with respect to long-term climate. Some models supported the predicted pattern, with negative effects of extreme summer temperatures in hotter areas and positive effects on recruitment for summer water availability in drier areas. We also found evidence of interacting temperature and precipitation influencing population size, such as extreme heat having less of a negative effect in wetter areas. Other results were contrary to predictions, such as positive effects of summer water availability in wetter parts of the range and positive responses to winter warming especially in milder areas. In general, we found wood frogs were more sensitive to changes in temperature or temperature interacting with precipitation than to changes in precipitation alone. Our results suggest that sensitivity to changes in climate cannot be predicted simply by knowing locations within the species’ climate envelope. Many climate processes did not affect population growth rates in the predicted direction based on range position. Processes such as species-interactions, local adaptation, and interactions with the physical landscape likely affect the responses we observed. Our work highlights the

  8. Climate stability and sensitivity in some simple conceptual models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bates, J. Ray [University College Dublin, Meteorology and Climate Centre, School of Mathematical Sciences, Dublin (Ireland)

    2012-02-15

    A theoretical investigation of climate stability and sensitivity is carried out using three simple linearized models based on the top-of-the-atmosphere energy budget. The simplest is the zero-dimensional model (ZDM) commonly used as a conceptual basis for climate sensitivity and feedback studies. The others are two-zone models with tropics and extratropics of equal area; in the first of these (Model A), the dynamical heat transport (DHT) between the zones is implicit, in the second (Model B) it is explicitly parameterized. It is found that the stability and sensitivity properties of the ZDM and Model A are very similar, both depending only on the global-mean radiative response coefficient and the global-mean forcing. The corresponding properties of Model B are more complex, depending asymmetrically on the separate tropical and extratropical values of these quantities, as well as on the DHT coefficient. Adopting Model B as a benchmark, conditions are found under which the validity of the ZDM and Model A as climate sensitivity models holds. It is shown that parameter ranges of physical interest exist for which such validity may not hold. The 2 x CO{sub 2} sensitivities of the simple models are studied and compared. Possible implications of the results for sensitivities derived from GCMs and palaeoclimate data are suggested. Sensitivities for more general scenarios that include negative forcing in the tropics (due to aerosols, inadvertent or geoengineered) are also studied. Some unexpected outcomes are found in this case. These include the possibility of a negative global-mean temperature response to a positive global-mean forcing, and vice versa. (orig.)

  9. Determination of a lower bound on Earth's climate sensitivity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    STEPHEN E. Schwartz

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Transient and equilibrium sensitivity of Earth's climate has been calculated using global temperature, forcing and heating rate data for the period 1970–2010. We have assumed increased long-wave radiative forcing in the period due to the increase of the long-lived greenhouse gases. By assuming the change in aerosol forcing in the period to be zero, we calculate what we consider to be lower bounds to these sensitivities, as the magnitude of the negative aerosol forcing is unlikely to have diminished in this period. The radiation imbalance necessary to calculate equilibrium sensitivity is estimated from the rate of ocean heat accumulation as 0.37±0.03 W m−2 (all uncertainty estimates are 1−σ. With these data, we obtain best estimates for transient climate sensitivity 0.39±0.07 K (W m−2−1 and equilibrium climate sensitivity 0.54±0.14 K (W m−2−1, equivalent to 1.5±0.3 and 2.0±0.5 K (3.7 W m−2−1, respectively. The latter quantity is equal to the lower bound of the ‘likely’ range for this quantity given by the 2007 IPCC Assessment Report. The uncertainty attached to the lower-bound equilibrium sensitivity permits us to state, within the assumptions of this analysis, that the equilibrium sensitivity is greater than 0.31 K (W m−2−1, equivalent to 1.16 K (3.7 W m−2−1, at the 95% confidence level.

  10. Sensitivity of intermittent streams to climate variations in the USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eng, Kenny; Wolock, David M.; Dettinger, Mike

    2015-01-01

    There is a great deal of interest in the literature on streamflow changes caused by climate change because of the potential negative effects on aquatic biota and water supplies. Most previous studies have primarily focused on perennial streams, and there have been only a few studies examining the effect of climate variability on intermittent streams. Our objectives in this study were to (1) identify regions of similar zero-flow behavior, and (2) evaluate the sensitivity of intermittent streams to historical variability in climate in the United States. This study was carried out at 265 intermittent streams by evaluating: (1) correlations among time series of flow metrics (number of zero-flow events, the average of the central 50% and largest 10% of flows) with climate (magnitudes, durations and intensity), and (2) decadal changes in the seasonality and long-term trends of these flow metrics. Results identified five distinct seasonality patterns in the zero-flow events. In addition, strong associations between the low-flow metrics and historical changes in climate were found. The decadal analysis suggested no significant seasonal shifts or decade-to-decade trends in the low-flow metrics. The lack of trends or changes in seasonality is likely due to unchanged long-term patterns in precipitation over the time period examined.

  11. Climate of the last millennium: a sensitivity study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bertrand, Cedric [Royal Meterological Inst. of Belgium, Brussels (Belgium); Loutre, Marie-France; Crucifix, Michel; Berger, Andre [Univ. catholique de Louvain, Louvain la-neuve (Belgium). Inst. d' Astronomie et de Geophysique G. Lemaitre

    2002-05-01

    Seventy-one sensitivity experiments have been performed using a two-dimensional sector-averaged global climate model to assess the potential impact of six different factors on the last millennium climate and in particular on the surface air temperature evolution. Both natural (i.e. solar and volcanism) and anthropogenically-induced (i.e. deforestation, additional greenhouse gases, and tropospheric aerosol burden) climate forcings have been considered. Comparisons of climate reconstructions with model results indicate that all the investigated forcings are needed to simulate the surface air temperature evolution. Due to uncertainties in historical climate forcings and temperature reconstructions, the relative importance of a particular forcing in the explanation of the recorded temperature variance is largely function of the forcing time series used. Nevertheless, our results indicate that whatever the historical solar and volcanic reconstructions may be, these externally driven natural climate forcings are unable to give climate responses comparable in magnitude and time to the late-2Oth-century temperature warming while for earlier periods combination of solar and volcanic forcings can explain the Little Ice Age and the Medieval Warm Period. Only the greenhouse gas forcing allows the model to simulate an accelerated warming rate during the last three decades. The best guess simulation (largest similarity with the reconstruction) for the period starting 1850 AD requires however to include anthropogenic sulphate forcing as well as the impact of deforestation to constrain the magnitude of the greenhouse gas twentieth century warming to better fit the observation. On the contrary, prior to 1850 AD mid-latitude land clearance tends to reinforce the Little Ice age in our simulations.

  12. Emergent constraint on equilibrium climate sensitivity from global temperature variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cox, Peter M; Huntingford, Chris; Williamson, Mark S

    2018-01-17

    Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) remains one of the most important unknowns in climate change science. ECS is defined as the global mean warming that would occur if the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) concentration were instantly doubled and the climate were then brought to equilibrium with that new level of CO 2 . Despite its rather idealized definition, ECS has continuing relevance for international climate change agreements, which are often framed in terms of stabilization of global warming relative to the pre-industrial climate. However, the 'likely' range of ECS as stated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has remained at 1.5-4.5 degrees Celsius for more than 25 years. The possibility of a value of ECS towards the upper end of this range reduces the feasibility of avoiding 2 degrees Celsius of global warming, as required by the Paris Agreement. Here we present a new emergent constraint on ECS that yields a central estimate of 2.8 degrees Celsius with 66 per cent confidence limits (equivalent to the IPCC 'likely' range) of 2.2-3.4 degrees Celsius. Our approach is to focus on the variability of temperature about long-term historical warming, rather than on the warming trend itself. We use an ensemble of climate models to define an emergent relationship between ECS and a theoretically informed metric of global temperature variability. This metric of variability can also be calculated from observational records of global warming, which enables tighter constraints to be placed on ECS, reducing the probability of ECS being less than 1.5 degrees Celsius to less than 3 per cent, and the probability of ECS exceeding 4.5 degrees Celsius to less than 1 per cent.

  13. Emergent constraint on equilibrium climate sensitivity from global temperature variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cox, Peter M.; Huntingford, Chris; Williamson, Mark S.

    2018-01-01

    Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) remains one of the most important unknowns in climate change science. ECS is defined as the global mean warming that would occur if the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration were instantly doubled and the climate were then brought to equilibrium with that new level of CO2. Despite its rather idealized definition, ECS has continuing relevance for international climate change agreements, which are often framed in terms of stabilization of global warming relative to the pre-industrial climate. However, the ‘likely’ range of ECS as stated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has remained at 1.5-4.5 degrees Celsius for more than 25 years. The possibility of a value of ECS towards the upper end of this range reduces the feasibility of avoiding 2 degrees Celsius of global warming, as required by the Paris Agreement. Here we present a new emergent constraint on ECS that yields a central estimate of 2.8 degrees Celsius with 66 per cent confidence limits (equivalent to the IPCC ‘likely’ range) of 2.2-3.4 degrees Celsius. Our approach is to focus on the variability of temperature about long-term historical warming, rather than on the warming trend itself. We use an ensemble of climate models to define an emergent relationship between ECS and a theoretically informed metric of global temperature variability. This metric of variability can also be calculated from observational records of global warming, which enables tighter constraints to be placed on ECS, reducing the probability of ECS being less than 1.5 degrees Celsius to less than 3 per cent, and the probability of ECS exceeding 4.5 degrees Celsius to less than 1 per cent.

  14. Variations in the Sensitivity of Shrub Growth to Climate Change along Arctic Environmental and Biotic Gradients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beck, P. S. A.; Myers-Smith, I. H.; Elmendorf, S.; Georges, D.

    2015-12-01

    Despite evidence of rapid shrub expansion at many Arctic sites and the profound effects this has on ecosystem structure, biogeochemical cycling, and land-atmosphere feedbacks in the Arctic, the drivers of shrub growth remain poorly understood. The compilation of 41,576 annual shrub growth measurements made around the Arctic, allowed for the first systematic evaluation of the climate sensitivity of Arctic shrub growth, i.e. the strength of the relationship between annual shrub growth and monthly climate variables. The growth measurements were taken on 1821 plants of 25 species at 37 arctic and alpine sites, either as annual ring widths or as stem increments. We evaluated climate sensitivity of shrub growth for each genus-by-site combination in this data set based on the performance and parameters of linear mixed models that used CRU TS3.21 climate data as predictors of shrub growth between 1950 and 2010. 76% of genus-by-site combinations showed climate sensitive growth, but climate-growth relationships varied with soil moisture, species canopy height, and geographic position within the species ranges. Shrubs growing at sites with more soil moisture showed greater climate sensitivity, suggesting that water availability might limit shrub growth if continued warming isn't matched by a steady increase in soil moisture. Tall shrub species growing at their northern range limit were particularly climate sensitive causing climate sensitivity of shrubs to peak at the transition between Low and High Arctic, where carbon storage in permafrost is greatest. Local and regional studies have documented matching spatial and temporal patterns in dendrochronological measurements and satellite observations of vegetation indices both in boreal and Arctic regions. Yet the circumarctic comparison of patterns in dendrochronological and remote sensing data sets yielded poor levels of agreement. In much of the Arctic, steep environmental gradients generate fine spatial patterns of vegetation

  15. Sensitivity of regional climate to global temperature and forcing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tebaldi, Claudia; O’Neill, Brian; Lamarque, Jean-François

    2015-01-01

    The sensitivity of regional climate to global average radiative forcing and temperature change is important for setting global climate policy targets and designing scenarios. Setting effective policy targets requires an understanding of the consequences exceeding them, even by small amounts, and the effective design of sets of scenarios requires the knowledge of how different emissions, concentrations, or forcing need to be in order to produce substantial differences in climate outcomes. Using an extensive database of climate model simulations, we quantify how differences in global average quantities relate to differences in both the spatial extent and magnitude of climate outcomes at regional (250–1250 km) scales. We show that differences of about 0.3 °C in global average temperature are required to generate statistically significant changes in regional annual average temperature over more than half of the Earth’s land surface. A global difference of 0.8 °C is necessary to produce regional warming over half the land surface that is not only significant but reaches at least 1 °C. As much as 2.5 to 3 °C is required for a statistically significant change in regional annual average precipitation that is equally pervasive. Global average temperature change provides a better metric than radiative forcing for indicating differences in regional climate outcomes due to the path dependency of the effects of radiative forcing. For example, a difference in radiative forcing of 0.5 W m −2 can produce statistically significant differences in regional temperature over an area that ranges between 30% and 85% of the land surface, depending on the forcing pathway. (letter)

  16. Growing sensitivity of maize to water scarcity under climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meng, Qingfeng; Chen, Xinping; Lobell, David B; Cui, Zhenling; Zhang, Yi; Yang, Haishun; Zhang, Fusuo

    2016-01-25

    Climate change can reduce crop yields and thereby threaten food security. The current measures used to adapt to climate change involve avoiding crops yield decrease, however, the limitations of such measures due to water and other resources scarcity have not been well understood. Here, we quantify how the sensitivity of maize to water availability has increased because of the shift toward longer-maturing varieties during last three decades in the Chinese Maize Belt (CMB). We report that modern, longer-maturing varieties have extended the growing period by an average of 8 days and have significantly offset the negative impacts of climate change on yield. However, the sensitivity of maize production to water has increased: maize yield across the CMB was 5% lower with rainfed than with irrigated maize in the 1980s and was 10% lower (and even >20% lower in some areas) in the 2000s because of both warming and the increased requirement for water by the longer-maturing varieties. Of the maize area in China, 40% now fails to receive the precipitation required to attain the full yield potential. Opportunities for water saving in maize systems exist, but water scarcity in China remains a serious problem.

  17. Chaotic Attractor Crisis and Climate Sensitivity: a Transfer Operator Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tantet, A.; Lucarini, V.; Lunkeit, F.; Dijkstra, H. A.

    2015-12-01

    The rough response to a smooth parameter change of some non-chaotic climate models, such as the warm to snowball-Earth transition in energy balance models due to the ice-albedo feedback, can be studied in the framework of bifurcation theory, in particular by analysing the Lyapunov spectrum of fixed points or periodic orbits. However, bifurcation theory is of little help to study the destruction of a chaotic attractor which can occur in high-dimensional General Circulation Models (GCM). Yet, one would expect critical slowing down to occur before the crisis, since, as the system becomes susceptible to the physical instability mechanism responsible for the crisis, it turns out to be less and less resilient to exogenous perturbations and to spontaneous fluctuations due to other types of instabilities on the attractor. The statistical physics framework, extended to nonequilibrium systems, is particularly well suited for the study of global properties of chaotic and stochastic systems. In particular, the semigroup of transfer operators governs the evolution of distributions in phase space and its spectrum characterises both the relaxation rate of distributions to a statistical steady-state and the stability of this steady-state to perturbations. If critical slowing down indeed occurs in the approach to an attractor crisis, the gap in the spectrum of the semigroup of transfer operators is expected to shrink. We show that the chaotic attractor crisis due to the ice-albedo feedback and resulting in a transition from a warm to a snowball-Earth in the Planet Simulator (PlaSim), a GCM of intermediate complexity, is associated with critical slowing down, as observed by the slower decay of correlations before the crisis (cf. left panel). In addition, we demonstrate that this critical slowing down can be traced back to the shrinkage of the gap between the leading eigenvalues of coarse-grained approximations of the transfer operators and that these eigenvalues capture the

  18. The Late-Glacial and Holocene Marboré Lake sequence (2612 m a.s.l., Central Pyrenees, Spain): Testing high altitude sites sensitivity to millennial scale vegetation and climate variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leunda, Maria; González-Sampériz, Penélope; Gil-Romera, Graciela; Aranbarri, Josu; Moreno, Ana; Oliva-Urcia, Belén; Sevilla-Callejo, Miguel; Valero-Garcés, Blas

    2017-10-01

    This paper presents the environmental, climate and vegetation changes reconstructed for the last 14.6 kyr cal BP from the Marboré Lake sedimentary sequence, the highest altitude record (2612 m a.s.l.) in the Pyrenees studied up to date. We investigate the sensitivity of this high altitude site to vegetational and climate dynamics and altitudinal shifts during the Holocene by comparing palynological spectra of the fossil sequence and pollen rain content from current moss pollsters. We hypothesize that the input of sediments in lakes at such altitude is strongly controlled by ice phenology (ice-free summer months) and that during cold periods Pollen Accumulation Rate (PAR) and Pollen Concentration (PC) reflect changes in ice-cover and thus is linked to temperature changes. Low sedimentation rates and low PC and PAR occurred during colder periods as the Younger Dryas (GS-1) and the Holocene onset (12.6-10.2 kyr cal BP), suggesting that the lake-surface remained ice-covered for most of the year during these periods. Warmer conditions are not evident until 10.2 kyr cal BP, when an abrupt increase in sedimentation rate, PC and PAR occur, pointing to a delayed onset of the Holocene temperature increase at high altitude. Well-developed pinewoods and deciduous forest dominated the mid montane belt since 9.3 kyr cal BP until mid-Holocene (5.2 kyr cal BP). A downwards shift in the deciduous forest occurred after 5.2 kyr cal BP, in agreement with the aridity trend observed at a regional and Mediterranean context. The increase of herbaceous taxa during the late-Holocene (3.5 kyr cal BP-present) reflects a general trend to reduced montane forest, as anthropogenic disturbances were not evident until 1.3 kyr cal BP when Olea proportions from lowland areas and other anthropogenic indicators clearly expand. Our study demonstrates the need to perform local experimental approaches to check the effect of ice phenology on high altitude lakes sensitivity to vegetation changes to obtain

  19. Lakes sensitivity to climatic stress – a sociological assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lackowska Marta

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available One of the conditions for effective water resources management in protected areas is local decision makers’ knowledge about potential threats caused by climate changes. Our study, conducted in the UNESCO Biosphere Reserve of Tuchola Forest in Poland, analyses the perception of threats by local stakeholders. Their assessments of the sensitivity of four lakes to the extreme weather events are compared with hydrological studies. The survey shows that the lakes’ varying responses to extreme weather conditions is rarely noticed by ordinary observers. Their perception is usually far from the hydrological facts, which indicates a lack of relevant information or a failure in making it widely accessible and understandable. Moreover, it is rather the human impact, not climate change, which is seen as the biggest threat to the lakes. Insufficient environmental knowledge may hinder the effective protection and management of natural resources, due to bad decisions and lack of the local communities’ support for adaptation and mitigation policies.

  20. Large diurnal temperature range increases bird sensitivity to climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Briga, Michael; Verhulst, Simon

    2015-01-01

    Climate variability is changing on multiple temporal scales, and little is known of the consequences of increases in short-term variability, particularly in endotherms. Using mortality data with high temporal resolution of zebra finches living in large outdoor aviaries (5 years, 359.220 bird-days),

  1. Sensitivity of the Regional Climate in the Middle East and North Africa to Volcanic Perturbations

    KAUST Repository

    Dogar, Muhammad Mubashar; Stenchikov, Georgiy L.; Osipov, Sergey; Wyman, Bruce; Zhao, Ming

    2017-01-01

    The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) regional climate appears to be extremely sensitive to volcanic eruptions. Winter cooling after the 1991 Pinatubo eruption far exceeded the mean hemispheric temperature anomaly, even causing snowfall in Israel. To better understand MENA climate variability, the climate responses to the El Chichón and Pinatubo volcanic eruptions are analyzed using observations, NOAA/NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis, and output from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's High-Resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM). A multiple regression analysis both for the observations and the model output is performed on seasonal summer and winter composites to separate out the contributions from climate trends, El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Indian summer monsoon and volcanic aerosols. Strong regional temperature and precipitation responses over the MENA region are found in both winter and summer. The model and the observations both show that a positive NAO amplifies the MENA volcanic winter cooling. In boreal summer, the patterns of changing temperature and precipitation suggest a weakening and southward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, caused by volcanic surface cooling and weakening of the Indian and West African monsoons. The model captures the main features of the climate response; however, it underestimates the total cooling, especially in winter, and exhibits a different spatial pattern of the NAO climate response in MENA compared to the observations. The conducted analysis sheds light on the internal mechanisms of MENA climate variability and helps to selectively diagnose the model deficiencies.

  2. Sensitivity of the regional climate in the Middle East and North Africa to volcanic perturbations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dogar, Muhammad Mubashar; Stenchikov, Georgiy; Osipov, Sergey; Wyman, Bruce; Zhao, Ming

    2017-08-01

    The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) regional climate appears to be extremely sensitive to volcanic eruptions. Winter cooling after the 1991 Pinatubo eruption far exceeded the mean hemispheric temperature anomaly, even causing snowfall in Israel. To better understand MENA climate variability, the climate responses to the El Chichón and Pinatubo volcanic eruptions are analyzed using observations, NOAA/National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System Reanalysis, and output from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's High-Resolution Atmospheric Model. A multiple regression analysis both for the observations and the model output is performed on seasonal summer and winter composites to separate out the contributions from climate trends, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Indian summer monsoon, and volcanic aerosols. Strong regional temperature and precipitation responses over the MENA region are found in both winter and summer. The model and the observations both show that a positive NAO amplifies the MENA volcanic winter cooling. In boreal summer, the patterns of changing temperature and precipitation suggest a weakening and southward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, caused by volcanic surface cooling and weakening of the Indian and West African monsoons. The model captures the main features of the climate response; however, it underestimates the total cooling, especially in winter, and exhibits a different spatial pattern of the NAO climate response in MENA compared to the observations. The conducted analysis sheds light on the internal mechanisms of MENA climate variability and helps to selectively diagnose the model deficiencies.

  3. Increased sensitivity to climate change in disturbed ecosystems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kroël-Dulay, György; Ransijn, Johannes; Schmidt, Inger Kappel

    2015-01-01

    Human domination of the biosphere includes changes to disturbance regimes, which push many ecosystems towards early-successional states. Ecological theory predicts that early-successional ecosystems are more sensitive to perturbations than mature systems, but little evidence supports this relatio......Human domination of the biosphere includes changes to disturbance regimes, which push many ecosystems towards early-successional states. Ecological theory predicts that early-successional ecosystems are more sensitive to perturbations than mature systems, but little evidence supports...... this relationship for the perturbation of climate change. Here we show that vegetation (abundance, species richness and species composition) across seven European shrublands is quite resistant to moderate experimental warming and drought, and responsiveness is associated with the dynamic state of the ecosystem...

  4. Issues in Establishing Climate Sensitivity in Recent Studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John T. Fasullo

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Numerous attempts have been made to constrain climate sensitivity with observations [1-10] (with [6] as LC09, [8] as SB11. While all of these attempts contain various caveats and sources of uncertainty, some efforts have been shown to contain major errors and are demonstrably incorrect. For example, multiple studies [11-13] separately addressed weaknesses in LC09 [6]. The work of Trenberth et al. [13], for instance, demonstrated a basic lack of robustness in the LC09 method that fundamentally undermined their results. Minor changes in that study’s subjective assumptions yielded major changes in its main conclusions. Moreover, Trenberth et al. [13] criticized the interpretation of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO as an analogue for exploring the forced response of the climate system. In addition, as many cloud variations on monthly time scales result from internal atmospheric variability, such as the Madden-Julian Oscillation, cloud variability is not a deterministic response to surface temperatures. Nevertheless, many of the problems in LC09 [6] have been perpetuated, and Dessler [10] has pointed out similar issues with two more recent such attempts [7,8]. Here we briefly summarize more generally some of the pitfalls and issues involved in developing observational constraints on climate feedbacks. [...

  5. Sensitivity of the hydrologic cycle in Tana river basin to climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mutua, F.M.

    1998-01-01

    The Tana River basin in Kenya has four distinct climates along it's gradient from cool humid in mount Kenya region through arid and semi arid in the lower plains to semi humid coastal climate. From the highlands of mount Kenya to the plateau on the lowlands, the river traverses some sections which have high potential for hydro-electric power generation. The government has constructed water reovirus to collect water for electricity generation. The influence of the reovirus have also caused climate modification. The aim of the study was to investigate the sensitivity of the river flows in the Tana river to climate change. The study indicates that, as long as temperature increment of up to 2 degrees centigrade are accompanied by positive changes (greater than 10%) in rainfall over the basin, then the hydrologic cycle adjust itself accordingly to give a positive response (increased runoff) in terms of the river at the outlet

  6. Short ensembles: An Efficient Method for Discerning Climate-relevant Sensitivities in Atmospheric General Circulation Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wan, Hui; Rasch, Philip J.; Zhang, Kai; Qian, Yun; Yan, Huiping; Zhao, Chun

    2014-09-08

    This paper explores the feasibility of an experimentation strategy for investigating sensitivities in fast components of atmospheric general circulation models. The basic idea is to replace the traditional serial-in-time long-term climate integrations by representative ensembles of shorter simulations. The key advantage of the proposed method lies in its efficiency: since fewer days of simulation are needed, the computational cost is less, and because individual realizations are independent and can be integrated simultaneously, the new dimension of parallelism can dramatically reduce the turnaround time in benchmark tests, sensitivities studies, and model tuning exercises. The strategy is not appropriate for exploring sensitivity of all model features, but it is very effective in many situations. Two examples are presented using the Community Atmosphere Model version 5. The first example demonstrates that the method is capable of characterizing the model cloud and precipitation sensitivity to time step length. A nudging technique is also applied to an additional set of simulations to help understand the contribution of physics-dynamics interaction to the detected time step sensitivity. In the second example, multiple empirical parameters related to cloud microphysics and aerosol lifecycle are perturbed simultaneously in order to explore which parameters have the largest impact on the simulated global mean top-of-atmosphere radiation balance. Results show that in both examples, short ensembles are able to correctly reproduce the main signals of model sensitivities revealed by traditional long-term climate simulations for fast processes in the climate system. The efficiency of the ensemble method makes it particularly useful for the development of high-resolution, costly and complex climate models.

  7. Methyl bromide: ocean sources, ocean sinks, and climate sensitivity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anbar, A D; Yung, Y L; Chavez, F P

    1996-03-01

    perturbations to temperature or productivity can modify atmospheric CH3Br. Therefore atmospheric CH3Br should be sensitive to climate conditions. Our modeling indicates that climate-induced CH3Br variations can be larger than those resulting from small (+/- 25%) changes in the anthropogenic source, assuming that this source comprises less than half of all inputs. Future measurements of marine CH3Br, temperature, and primary production should be combined with such models to determine the relationship between marine biological activity and CH3Br production. Better understanding of the biological term is especially important to assess the importance of non-anthropogenic sources to stratospheric ozone loss and the sensitivity of these sources to global climate change.

  8. Sensitivity of Rainfall Extremes Under Warming Climate in Urban India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ali, H.; Mishra, V.

    2017-12-01

    Extreme rainfall events in urban India halted transportation, damaged infrastructure, and affected human lives. Rainfall extremes are projected to increase under the future climate. We evaluated the relationship (scaling) between rainfall extremes at different temporal resolutions (daily, 3-hourly, and 30 minutes), daily dewpoint temperature (DPT) and daily air temperature at 850 hPa (T850) for 23 urban areas in India. Daily rainfall extremes obtained from Global Surface Summary of Day Data (GSOD) showed positive regression slopes for most of the cities with median of 14%/K for the period of 1979-2013 for DPT and T850, which is higher than Clausius-Clapeyron (C-C) rate ( 7%). Moreover, sub-daily rainfall extremes are more sensitive to both DPT and T850. For instance, 3-hourly rainfall extremes obtained from Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM 3B42 V7) showed regression slopes more than 16%/K aginst DPT and T850 for the period of 1998-2015. Half-hourly rainfall extremes from the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals (IMERGE) of Global precipitation mission (GPM) also showed higher sensitivity against changes in DPT and T850. The super scaling of rainfall extremes against changes in DPT and T850 can be attributed to convective nature of precipitation in India. Our results show that urban India may witness non-stationary rainfall extremes, which, in turn will affect stromwater designs and frequency and magniture of urban flooding.

  9. Sensitivity of tropical climate to low-level clouds in the NCEP climate forecast system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hu, Zeng-Zhen [Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD (United States); NCEP/NWS/NOAA, Climate Prediction Center, Camp Springs, MD (United States); Huang, Bohua; Schneider, Edwin K. [Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD (United States); George Mason University, Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Earth Sciences, College of Science, Fairfax, VA (United States); Hou, Yu-Tai; Yang, Fanglin [NCEP/NWS/NOAA, Environmental Modeling Center, Camp Springs, MD (United States); Wang, Wanqiu [NCEP/NWS/NOAA, Climate Prediction Center, Camp Springs, MD (United States); Stan, Cristiana [Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD (United States)

    2011-05-15

    In this work, we examine the sensitivity of tropical mean climate and seasonal cycle to low clouds and cloud liquid water path (CLWP) by prescribing them in the NCEP climate forecast system (CFS). It is found that the change of low cloud cover alone has a minor influence on the amount of net shortwave radiation reaching the surface and on the warm biases in the southeastern Atlantic. In experiments where CLWP is prescribed using observations, the mean climate in the tropics is improved significantly, implying that shortwave radiation absorption by CLWP is mainly responsible for reducing the excessive surface net shortwave radiation over the southern oceans in the CFS. Corresponding to large CLWP values in the southeastern oceans, the model generates large low cloud amounts. That results in a reduction of net shortwave radiation at the ocean surface and the warm biases in the sea surface temperature in the southeastern oceans. Meanwhile, the cold tongue and associated surface wind stress in the eastern oceans become stronger and more realistic. As a consequence of the overall improvement of the tropical mean climate, the seasonal cycle in the tropical Atlantic is also improved. Based on the results from these sensitivity experiments, we propose a model bias correction approach, in which CLWP is prescribed only in the southeastern Atlantic by using observed annual mean climatology of CLWP. It is shown that the warm biases in the southeastern Atlantic are largely eliminated, and the seasonal cycle in the tropical Atlantic Ocean is significantly improved. Prescribing CLWP in the CFS is then an effective interim technique to reduce model biases and to improve the simulation of seasonal cycle in the tropics. (orig.)

  10. Observed forest sensitivity to climate implies large changes in 21st century North American forest growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charney, Noah D; Babst, Flurin; Poulter, Benjamin; Record, Sydne; Trouet, Valerie M; Frank, David; Enquist, Brian J; Evans, Margaret E K

    2016-09-01

    Predicting long-term trends in forest growth requires accurate characterisation of how the relationship between forest productivity and climatic stress varies across climatic regimes. Using a network of over two million tree-ring observations spanning North America and a space-for-time substitution methodology, we forecast climate impacts on future forest growth. We explored differing scenarios of increased water-use efficiency (WUE) due to CO2 -fertilisation, which we simulated as increased effective precipitation. In our forecasts: (1) climate change negatively impacted forest growth rates in the interior west and positively impacted forest growth along the western, southeastern and northeastern coasts; (2) shifting climate sensitivities offset positive effects of warming on high-latitude forests, leaving no evidence for continued 'boreal greening'; and (3) it took a 72% WUE enhancement to compensate for continentally averaged growth declines under RCP 8.5. Our results highlight the importance of locally adapted forest management strategies to handle regional differences in growth responses to climate change. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

  11. Climate sensitivity to Arctic seaway restriction during the early Paleogene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, Christopher D.; LeGrande, Allegra N.; Tripati, Aradhna K.

    2009-09-01

    The opening and closing of ocean gateways affects the global distribution of heat, salt, and moisture, potentially driving climatic change on regional to global scales. Between 65 and 45 million years ago (Ma), during the early Paleogene, exchange between the Arctic and global oceans occurred through two narrow and shallow seaways, the Greenland-Norway seaway and the Turgai Strait. Sediments from the Arctic Ocean suggest that, during this interval, the surface ocean was warm, brackish, and episodically enabled the freshwater fern Azolla to bloom. The precise mechanisms responsible for the development of these conditions in the Paleogene Arctic remain uncertain. Here we show results from an isotope-enabled, atmosphere-ocean general circulation model, which indicate that Northern Hemisphere climate would have been very sensitive to the degree of oceanic exchange through the Arctic seaways. We also present modelled estimates of seawater and calcite δ18O for the Paleogene. By restricting these seaways, we simulate freshening of the surface Arctic Ocean to ~ 6 psu and warming of sea-surface temperatures by 2 °C in the North Atlantic and 5-10 °C in the Labrador Sea. Our results may help explain the occurrence of low-salinity tolerant taxa in the Arctic Ocean during the Eocene and provide a mechanism for enhanced warmth in the north western Atlantic. We propose that the formation of a volcanic land-bridge between Greenland and Europe could have caused increased ocean convection and warming of intermediate waters in the Atlantic. If true, this result is consistent with the theory that bathymetry changes may have caused thermal destabilisation of methane clathrates and supports a tectonic trigger hypothesis for the Paleocene Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM).

  12. Sensitivity of the Regional Climate in the Middle East and North Africa to Volcanic Perturbations

    KAUST Repository

    Dogar, Muhammad Mubashar

    2017-07-27

    The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) regional climate appears to be extremely sensitive to volcanic eruptions. Winter cooling after the 1991 Pinatubo eruption far exceeded the mean hemispheric temperature anomaly, even causing snowfall in Israel. To better understand MENA climate variability, the climate responses to the El Chichón and Pinatubo volcanic eruptions are analyzed using observations, NOAA/NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis, and output from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory\\'s High-Resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM). A multiple regression analysis both for the observations and the model output is performed on seasonal summer and winter composites to separate out the contributions from climate trends, El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Indian summer monsoon and volcanic aerosols. Strong regional temperature and precipitation responses over the MENA region are found in both winter and summer. The model and the observations both show that a positive NAO amplifies the MENA volcanic winter cooling. In boreal summer, the patterns of changing temperature and precipitation suggest a weakening and southward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, caused by volcanic surface cooling and weakening of the Indian and West African monsoons. The model captures the main features of the climate response; however, it underestimates the total cooling, especially in winter, and exhibits a different spatial pattern of the NAO climate response in MENA compared to the observations. The conducted analysis sheds light on the internal mechanisms of MENA climate variability and helps to selectively diagnose the model deficiencies.

  13. Sensitivity of the Eocene climate to CO2 and orbital variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keery, John S.; Holden, Philip B.; Edwards, Neil R.

    2018-02-01

    The early Eocene, from about 56 Ma, with high atmospheric CO2 levels, offers an analogue for the response of the Earth's climate system to anthropogenic fossil fuel burning. In this study, we present an ensemble of 50 Earth system model runs with an early Eocene palaeogeography and variation in the forcing values of atmospheric CO2 and the Earth's orbital parameters. Relationships between simple summary metrics of model outputs and the forcing parameters are identified by linear modelling, providing estimates of the relative magnitudes of the effects of atmospheric CO2 and each of the orbital parameters on important climatic features, including tropical-polar temperature difference, ocean-land temperature contrast, Asian, African and South (S.) American monsoon rains, and climate sensitivity. Our results indicate that although CO2 exerts a dominant control on most of the climatic features examined in this study, the orbital parameters also strongly influence important components of the ocean-atmosphere system in a greenhouse Earth. In our ensemble, atmospheric CO2 spans the range 280-3000 ppm, and this variation accounts for over 90 % of the effects on mean air temperature, southern winter high-latitude ocean-land temperature contrast and northern winter tropical-polar temperature difference. However, the variation of precession accounts for over 80 % of the influence of the forcing parameters on the Asian and African monsoon rainfall, and obliquity variation accounts for over 65 % of the effects on winter ocean-land temperature contrast in high northern latitudes and northern summer tropical-polar temperature difference. Our results indicate a bimodal climate sensitivity, with values of 4.36 and 2.54 °C, dependent on low or high states of atmospheric CO2 concentration, respectively, with a threshold at approximately 1000 ppm in this model, and due to a saturated vegetation-albedo feedback. Our method gives a quantitative ranking of the influence of each of the

  14. Generating evidence on gender sensitive climate-smart agriculture ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Specifically, it is important to understand how gender dynamics influence ... for CSA to buffer or mitigate the negative effects of climate change, promote equality, ... long-term climate action to reduce social inequality, promote greater gender ...

  15. Tuning the climate sensitivity of a global model to match 20th Century warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mauritsen, T.; Roeckner, E.

    2015-12-01

    A climate models ability to reproduce observed historical warming is sometimes viewed as a measure of quality. Yet, for practical reasons historical warming cannot be considered a purely empirical result of the modelling efforts because the desired result is known in advance and so is a potential target of tuning. Here we explain how the latest edition of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth System Model (MPI-ESM1.2) atmospheric model (ECHAM6.3) had its climate sensitivity systematically tuned to about 3 K; the MPI model to be used during CMIP6. This was deliberately done in order to improve the match to observed 20th Century warming over the previous model generation (MPI-ESM, ECHAM6.1) which warmed too much and had a sensitivity of 3.5 K. In the process we identified several controls on model cloud feedback that confirm recently proposed hypotheses concerning trade-wind cumulus and high-latitude mixed-phase clouds. We then evaluate the model fidelity with centennial global warming and discuss the relative importance of climate sensitivity, forcing and ocean heat uptake efficiency in determining the response as well as possible systematic biases. The activity of targeting historical warming during model development is polarizing the modeling community with 35 percent of modelers stating that 20th Century warming was rated very important to decisive, whereas 30 percent would not consider it at all. Likewise, opinions diverge as to which measures are legitimate means for improving the model match to observed warming. These results are from a survey conducted in conjunction with the first WCRP Workshop on Model Tuning in fall 2014 answered by 23 modelers. We argue that tuning or constructing models to match observed warming to some extent is practically unavoidable, and as such, in many cases might as well be done explicitly. For modeling groups that have the capability to tune both their aerosol forcing and climate sensitivity there is now a unique

  16. Semiarid watershed response in central New Mexico and its sensitivity to climate variability and change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. R. Vivoni

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Hydrologic processes in the semiarid regions of the Southwest United States are considered to be highly susceptible to variations in temperature and precipitation characteristics due to the effects of climate change. Relatively little is known about the potential impacts of climate change on the basin hydrologic response, namely streamflow, evapotranspiration and recharge, in the region. In this study, we present the development and application of a continuous, semi-distributed watershed model for climate change studies in semiarid basins of the Southwest US. Our objective is to capture hydrologic processes in large watersheds, while accounting for the spatial and temporal variations of climate forcing and basin properties in a simple fashion. We apply the model to the Río Salado basin in central New Mexico since it exhibits both a winter and summer precipitation regime and has a historical streamflow record for model testing purposes. Subsequently, we use a sequence of climate change scenarios that capture observed trends for winter and summer precipitation, as well as their interaction with higher temperatures, to perform long-term ensemble simulations of the basin response. Results of the modeling exercise indicate that precipitation uncertainty is amplified in the hydrologic response, in particular for processes that depend on a soil saturation threshold. We obtained substantially different hydrologic sensitivities for winter and summer precipitation ensembles, indicating a greater sensitivity to more intense summer storms as compared to more frequent winter events. In addition, the impact of changes in precipitation characteristics overwhelmed the effects of increased temperature in the study basin. Nevertheless, combined trends in precipitation and temperature yield a more sensitive hydrologic response throughout the year.

  17. Phenological sensitivity to climate across taxa and trophic levels

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thackeray, Stephen J.; Henrys, Peter; Hemming, Deborah

    2016-01-01

    Differences in phenological responses to climate change among species can desynchronise ecological interactions and thereby threaten ecosystem function. To assess these threats, we must quantify the relative impact of climate change on species at different trophic levels. Here, we apply a Climate...

  18. The influence of extratropical cloud phase and amount feedbacks on climate sensitivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frey, William R.; Kay, Jennifer E.

    2018-04-01

    Global coupled climate models have large long-standing cloud and radiation biases, calling into question their ability to simulate climate and climate change. This study assesses the impact of reducing shortwave radiation biases on climate sensitivity within the Community Earth System Model (CESM). The model is modified by increasing supercooled cloud liquid to better match absorbed shortwave radiation observations over the Southern Ocean while tuning to reduce a compensating tropical shortwave bias. With a thermodynamic mixed-layer ocean, equilibrium warming in response to doubled CO2 increases from 4.1 K in the control to 5.6 K in the modified model. This 1.5 K increase in equilibrium climate sensitivity is caused by changes in two extratropical shortwave cloud feedbacks. First, reduced conversion of cloud ice to liquid at high southern latitudes decreases the magnitude of a negative cloud phase feedback. Second, warming is amplified in the mid-latitudes by a larger positive shortwave cloud feedback. The positive cloud feedback, usually associated with the subtropics, arises when sea surface warming increases the moisture gradient between the boundary layer and free troposphere. The increased moisture gradient enhances the effectiveness of mixing to dry the boundary layer, which decreases cloud amount and optical depth. When a full-depth ocean with dynamics and thermodynamics is included, ocean heat uptake preferentially cools the mid-latitude Southern Ocean, partially inhibiting the positive cloud feedback and slowing warming. Overall, the results highlight strong connections between Southern Ocean mixed-phase cloud partitioning, cloud feedbacks, and ocean heat uptake in a climate forced by greenhouse gas changes.

  19. Phase sensitive diffraction sensor for high sensitivity refractive index measurement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumawat, Nityanand; Varma, Manoj; Kumar, Sunil

    2018-02-01

    In this study a diffraction based sensor has been developed for bio molecular sensing applications and performing assays in real time. A diffraction grating fabricated on a glass substrate produced diffraction patterns both in transmission and reflection when illuminated by a laser diode. We used zeroth order I(0,0) as reference and first order I(0,1) as signal channel and conducted ratiometric measurements that reduced noise by more than 50 times. The ratiometric approach resulted in a very simple instrumentation with very high sensitivity. In the past, we have shown refractive index measurements both for bulk and surface adsorption using the diffractive self-referencing approach. In the current work we extend the same concept to higher diffraction orders. We have considered order I(0,1) and I(1,1) and performed ratiometric measurements I(0,1)/I(1,1) to eliminate the common mode fluctuations. Since orders I(0,1) and I(1,1) behaved opposite to each other, the resulting ratio signal amplitude increased more than twice compared to our previous results. As a proof of concept we used different salt concentrations in DI water. Increased signal amplitude and improved fluid injection system resulted in more than 4 times improvement in detection limit, giving limit of detection 1.3×10-7 refractive index unit (RIU) compared to our previous results. The improved refractive index sensitivity will help significantly for high sensitivity label free bio sensing application in a very cost-effective and simple experimental set-up.

  20. Sensitivity of ring growth and carbon allocation to climatic variation vary within ponderosa pine trees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerhoulas, Lucy P; Kane, Jeffrey M

    2012-01-01

    Most dendrochronological studies focus on cores sampled from standard positions (main stem, breast height), yet vertical gradients in hydraulic constraints and priorities for carbon allocation may contribute to different growth sensitivities with position. Using cores taken from five positions (coarse roots, breast height, base of live crown, mid-crown branch and treetop), we investigated how radial growth sensitivity to climate over the period of 1895-2008 varies by position within 36 large ponderosa pines (Pinus ponderosa Dougl.) in northern Arizona. The climate parameters investigated were Palmer Drought Severity Index, water year and monsoon precipitation, maximum annual temperature, minimum annual temperature and average annual temperature. For each study tree, we generated Pearson correlation coefficients between ring width indices from each position and six climate parameters. We also investigated whether the number of missing rings differed among positions and bole heights. We found that tree density did not significantly influence climatic sensitivity to any of the climate parameters investigated at any of the sample positions. Results from three types of analyses suggest that climatic sensitivity of tree growth varied with position height: (i) correlations of radial growth and climate variables consistently increased with height; (ii) model strength based on Akaike's information criterion increased with height, where treetop growth consistently had the highest sensitivity and coarse roots the lowest sensitivity to each climatic parameter; and (iii) the correlation between bole ring width indices decreased with distance between positions. We speculate that increased sensitivity to climate at higher positions is related to hydraulic limitation because higher positions experience greater xylem tensions due to gravitational effects that render these positions more sensitive to climatic stresses. The low sensitivity of root growth to all climatic variables

  1. Sensitivity of Water Scarcity Events to ENSO-Driven Climate Variability at the Global Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veldkamp, T. I. E.; Eisner, S.; Wada, Y.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.; Ward, P. J.

    2015-01-01

    Globally, freshwater shortage is one of the most dangerous risks for society. Changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions have aggravated water scarcity over the past decades. A wide range of studies show that water scarcity will intensify in the future, as a result of both increased consumptive water use and, in some regions, climate change. Although it is well-known that El Niño- Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects patterns of precipitation and drought at global and regional scales, little attention has yet been paid to the impacts of climate variability on water scarcity conditions, despite its importance for adaptation planning. Therefore, we present the first global-scale sensitivity assessment of water scarcity to ENSO, the most dominant signal of climate variability. We show that over the time period 1961-2010, both water availability and water scarcity conditions are significantly correlated with ENSO-driven climate variability over a large proportion of the global land area (> 28.1 %); an area inhabited by more than 31.4% of the global population. We also found, however, that climate variability alone is often not enough to trigger the actual incidence of water scarcity events. The sensitivity of a region to water scarcity events, expressed in terms of land area or population exposed, is determined by both hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions. Currently, the population actually impacted by water scarcity events consists of 39.6% (CTA: consumption-to-availability ratio) and 41.1% (WCI: water crowding index) of the global population, whilst only 11.4% (CTA) and 15.9% (WCI) of the global population is at the same time living in areas sensitive to ENSO-driven climate variability. These results are contrasted, however, by differences in growth rates found under changing socioeconomic conditions, which are relatively high in regions exposed to water scarcity events. Given the correlations found between ENSO and water availability and scarcity

  2. Climate change sensitivity of multi-species afforestation in semi-arid Benin

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Noulèkoun, Florent; Khamzina, Asia; Naab, Jesse B.; Khasanah, N.; Noordwijk, van Meine; Lamers, John P.A.

    2018-01-01

    The early growth stage is critical in the response of trees to climate change and variability. It is not clear, however, what climate metrics are best to define the early-growth sensitivity in assessing adaptation strategies of young forests to climate change. Using a combination of field

  3. Increase of carbon cycle feedback with climate sensitivity: results from a coupled climate and carbon cycle model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Govindasamy, B.; Thompson, S.; Mirin, A.; Wickett, M.; Caldeira, K.; Delire, C.

    2005-01-01

    Coupled climate and carbon cycle modelling studies have shown that the feedback between global warming and the carbon cycle, in particular the terrestrial carbon cycle, could accelerate climate change and result in greater warming. In this paper we investigate the sensitivity of this feedback for year 2100 global warming in the range of 0 to 8 K. Differing climate sensitivities to increased CO 2 content are imposed on the carbon cycle models for the same emissions. Emissions from the SRES A2 scenario are used. We use a fully coupled climate and carbon cycle model, the INtegrated Climate and CArbon model (INCCA), the NCAR/DOE Parallel Climate Model coupled to the IBIS terrestrial biosphere model and a modified OCMIP ocean biogeochemistry model. In our integrated model, for scenarios with year 2100 global warming increasing from 0 to 8 K, land uptake decreases from 47% to 29% of total CO 2 emissions. Due to competing effects, ocean uptake (16%) shows almost no change at all. Atmospheric CO 2 concentration increases are 48% higher in the run with 8 K global climate warming than in the case with no warming. Our results indicate that carbon cycle amplification of climate warming will be greater if there is higher climate sensitivity to increased atmospheric CO 2 content; the carbon cycle feedback factor increases from 1.13 to 1.48 when global warming increases from 3.2 to 8 K

  4. Sensitivity of the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum climate to cloud properties.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiehl, Jeffrey T; Shields, Christine A

    2013-10-28

    The Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) was a significant global warming event in the Earth's history (approx. 55 Ma). The cause for this warming event has been linked to increases in greenhouse gases, specifically carbon dioxide and methane. This rapid warming took place in the presence of the existing Early Eocene warm climate. Given that projected business-as-usual levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide reach concentrations of 800-1100 ppmv by 2100, it is of interest to study past climates where atmospheric carbon dioxide was higher than present. This is especially the case given the difficulty of climate models in simulating past warm climates. This study explores the sensitivity of the simulated pre-PETM and PETM periods to change in cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and microphysical properties of liquid water clouds. Assuming lower levels of CCN for both of these periods leads to significant warming, especially at high latitudes. The study indicates that past differences in cloud properties may be an important factor in accurately simulating past warm climates. Importantly, additional shortwave warming from such a mechanism would imply lower required atmospheric CO2 concentrations for simulated surface temperatures to be in reasonable agreement with proxy data for the Eocene.

  5. Estimating option values of solar radiation management assuming that climate sensitivity is uncertain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arino, Yosuke; Akimoto, Keigo; Sano, Fuminori; Homma, Takashi; Oda, Junichiro; Tomoda, Toshimasa

    2016-05-24

    Although solar radiation management (SRM) might play a role as an emergency geoengineering measure, its potential risks remain uncertain, and hence there are ethical and governance issues in the face of SRM's actual deployment. By using an integrated assessment model, we first present one possible methodology for evaluating the value arising from retaining an SRM option given the uncertainty of climate sensitivity, and also examine sensitivities of the option value to SRM's side effects (damages). Reflecting the governance challenges on immediate SRM deployment, we assume scenarios in which SRM could only be deployed with a limited degree of cooling (0.5 °C) only after 2050, when climate sensitivity uncertainty is assumed to be resolved and only when the sensitivity is found to be high (T2x = 4 °C). We conduct a cost-effectiveness analysis with constraining temperature rise as the objective. The SRM option value is originated from its rapid cooling capability that would alleviate the mitigation requirement under climate sensitivity uncertainty and thereby reduce mitigation costs. According to our estimates, the option value during 1990-2049 for a +2.4 °C target (the lowest temperature target level for which there were feasible solutions in this model study) relative to preindustrial levels were in the range between $2.5 and $5.9 trillion, taking into account the maximum level of side effects shown in the existing literature. The result indicates that lower limits of the option values for temperature targets below +2.4 °C would be greater than $2.5 trillion.

  6. Potential relocation of climatic environments suggests high rates of climate displacement within the North American protection network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Batllori, Enric; Parisien, Marc-André; Parks, Sean A; Moritz, Max A; Miller, Carol

    2017-08-01

    Ongoing climate change may undermine the effectiveness of protected area networks in preserving the set of biotic components and ecological processes they harbor, thereby jeopardizing their conservation capacity into the future. Metrics of climate change, particularly rates and spatial patterns of climatic alteration, can help assess potential threats. Here, we perform a continent-wide climate change vulnerability assessment whereby we compare the baseline climate of the protected area network in North America (Canada, United States, México-NAM) to the projected end-of-century climate (2071-2100). We estimated the projected pace at which climatic conditions may redistribute across NAM (i.e., climate velocity), and identified future nearest climate analogs to quantify patterns of climate relocation within, among, and outside protected areas. Also, we interpret climatic relocation patterns in terms of associated land-cover types. Our analysis suggests that the conservation capacity of the NAM protection network is likely to be severely compromised by a changing climate. The majority of protected areas (~80%) might be exposed to high rates of climate displacement that could promote important shifts in species abundance or distribution. A small fraction of protected areas (climates that represent analogs of conditions currently characterizing almost a fifth of the protected areas across NAM. However, the majority of nearest climatic analogs for protected areas are in nonprotected locations. Therefore, unprotected landscapes could pose additional threats, beyond climate forcing itself, as sensitive biota may have to migrate farther than what is prescribed by the climate velocity to reach a protected area destination. To mitigate future threats to the conservation capacity of the NAM protected area network, conservation plans will need to capitalize on opportunities provided by the existing availability of natural land-cover types outside the current network of NAM

  7. High sensitivity optical molecular imaging system

    Science.gov (United States)

    An, Yu; Yuan, Gao; Huang, Chao; Jiang, Shixin; Zhang, Peng; Wang, Kun; Tian, Jie

    2018-02-01

    Optical Molecular Imaging (OMI) has the advantages of high sensitivity, low cost and ease of use. By labeling the regions of interest with fluorescent or bioluminescence probes, OMI can noninvasively obtain the distribution of the probes in vivo, which play the key role in cancer research, pharmacokinetics and other biological studies. In preclinical and clinical application, the image depth, resolution and sensitivity are the key factors for researchers to use OMI. In this paper, we report a high sensitivity optical molecular imaging system developed by our group, which can improve the imaging depth in phantom to nearly 5cm, high resolution at 2cm depth, and high image sensitivity. To validate the performance of the system, special designed phantom experiments and weak light detection experiment were implemented. The results shows that cooperated with high performance electron-multiplying charge coupled device (EMCCD) camera, precision design of light path system and high efficient image techniques, our OMI system can simultaneously collect the light-emitted signals generated by fluorescence molecular imaging, bioluminescence imaging, Cherenkov luminance and other optical imaging modality, and observe the internal distribution of light-emitting agents fast and accurately.

  8. Annual mean sea level and its sensitivity to wind climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerkema, Theo; Duran Matute, Matias

    2017-04-01

    the west-east component of the net wind energy vector, with some further improvement if one also includes the south-north component and annual mean atmospheric pressure. Knowledge of these local correlations can then be used to correct values of annual mean sea for these atmospheric effects. This halves the margin of error (expressed as 95%-confidence interval) for linear trends in a 20-year sea level record. The sensitivity on wind direction has a regional variability, even on a small scale like the Dutch Wadden Sea. Model results illustrate the detailed spatial patterns in inter-annual variability of annual mean sea level. This study also implies that climatic changes in wind direction, or in the strength of winds from a specific direction, may affect local annual mean sea level quite significantly.

  9. The influence of cirrus cloud-radiative forcing on climate and climate sensitivity in a general circulation model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lohmann, U.; Roeckner, E.

    1994-01-01

    Six numerical experiments have been performed with a general circulation model (GCM) to study the influence of high-level cirrus clouds and global sea surface temperature (SST) perturbations on climate and climate sensitivity. The GCM used in this investigation is the third-generation ECHAM3 model developed jointly by the Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology and the University of Hamburg. It is shown that the model is able to reproduce many features of the observed cloud-radiative forcing with considerable skill, such as the annual mean distribution, the response to seasonal forcing and the response to observed SST variations in the equatorial Pacific. In addition to a reference experiment where the cirrus emissivity is computed as a function of the cloud water content, two sensitivity experiments have been performed in which the cirrus emissivity is either set to zero everywhere above 400 hPa ('transparent cirrus') or set to one ('black cirrus'). These three experiments are repeated identically, except for prescribing a globally uniform SST warming of 4 K. (orig.)

  10. Heterogeneous catalysis in highly sensitive microreactors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Jakob Lind

    This thesis present a highly sensitive silicon microreactor and examples of its use in studying catalysis. The experimental setup built for gas handling and temperature control for the microreactor is described. The implementation of LabVIEW interfacing for all the experimental parts makes...

  11. Aluminum nanocantilevers for high sensitivity mass sensors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Davis, Zachary James; Boisen, Anja

    2005-01-01

    We have fabricated Al nanocantilevers using a simple, one mask contact UV lithography technique with lateral and vertical dimensions under 500 and 100 nm, respectively. These devices are demonstrated as highly sensitive mass sensors by measuring their dynamic properties. Furthermore, it is shown ...

  12. Single photon detector with high polarization sensitivity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Qi; Li, Hao; You, LiXing; Zhang, WeiJun; Zhang, Lu; Wang, Zhen; Xie, XiaoMing; Qi, Ming

    2015-04-15

    Polarization is one of the key parameters of light. Most optical detectors are intensity detectors that are insensitive to the polarization of light. A superconducting nanowire single photon detector (SNSPD) is naturally sensitive to polarization due to its nanowire structure. Previous studies focused on producing a polarization-insensitive SNSPD. In this study, by adjusting the width and pitch of the nanowire, we systematically investigate the preparation of an SNSPD with high polarization sensitivity. Subsequently, an SNSPD with a system detection efficiency of 12% and a polarization extinction ratio of 22 was successfully prepared.

  13. Short ensembles: an efficient method for discerning climate-relevant sensitivities in atmospheric general circulation models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Wan

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper explores the feasibility of an experimentation strategy for investigating sensitivities in fast components of atmospheric general circulation models. The basic idea is to replace the traditional serial-in-time long-term climate integrations by representative ensembles of shorter simulations. The key advantage of the proposed method lies in its efficiency: since fewer days of simulation are needed, the computational cost is less, and because individual realizations are independent and can be integrated simultaneously, the new dimension of parallelism can dramatically reduce the turnaround time in benchmark tests, sensitivities studies, and model tuning exercises. The strategy is not appropriate for exploring sensitivity of all model features, but it is very effective in many situations. Two examples are presented using the Community Atmosphere Model, version 5. In the first example, the method is used to characterize sensitivities of the simulated clouds to time-step length. Results show that 3-day ensembles of 20 to 50 members are sufficient to reproduce the main signals revealed by traditional 5-year simulations. A nudging technique is applied to an additional set of simulations to help understand the contribution of physics–dynamics interaction to the detected time-step sensitivity. In the second example, multiple empirical parameters related to cloud microphysics and aerosol life cycle are perturbed simultaneously in order to find out which parameters have the largest impact on the simulated global mean top-of-atmosphere radiation balance. It turns out that 12-member ensembles of 10-day simulations are able to reveal the same sensitivities as seen in 4-year simulations performed in a previous study. In both cases, the ensemble method reduces the total computational time by a factor of about 15, and the turnaround time by a factor of several hundred. The efficiency of the method makes it particularly useful for the development of

  14. Time-dependent climate sensitivity and the legacy of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeebe, Richard E

    2013-08-20

    Climate sensitivity measures the response of Earth's surface temperature to changes in forcing. The response depends on various climate processes that feed back on the initial forcing on different timescales. Understanding climate sensitivity is fundamental to reconstructing Earth's climatic history as well as predicting future climate change. On timescales shorter than centuries, only fast climate feedbacks including water vapor, lapse rate, clouds, and snow/sea ice albedo are usually considered. However, on timescales longer than millennia, the generally higher Earth system sensitivity becomes relevant, including changes in ice sheets, vegetation, ocean circulation, biogeochemical cycling, etc. Here, I introduce the time-dependent climate sensitivity, which unifies fast-feedback and Earth system sensitivity. I show that warming projections, which include a time-dependent climate sensitivity, exhibit an enhanced feedback between surface warming and ocean CO2 solubility, which in turn leads to higher atmospheric CO2 levels and further warming. Compared with earlier studies, my results predict a much longer lifetime of human-induced future warming (23,000-165,000 y), which increases the likelihood of large ice sheet melting and major sea level rise. The main point regarding the legacy of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions is that, even if the fast-feedback sensitivity is no more than 3 K per CO2 doubling, there will likely be additional long-term warming from slow climate feedbacks. Time-dependent climate sensitivity also helps explaining intense and prolonged warming in response to massive carbon release as documented for past events such as the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum.

  15. Highly sensitive microcalorimeters for radiation research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Avaev, V.N.; Demchuk, B.N.; Ioffe, L.A.; Efimov, E.P.

    1984-01-01

    Calorimetry is used in research at various types of nuclear-physics installations to obtain information on the quantitative and qualitative composition of ionizing radiation in a reactor core and in the surrounding layers of the biological shield. In this paper, the authors examine the characteristics of highly sensitive microcalorimeters with modular semiconductor heat pickups designed for operation in reactor channels. The microcalorimeters have a thin-walled aluminum housing on whose inner surface modular heat pickups are placed radially as shown here. The results of measurements of the temperature dependence of the sensitivity of the microcalorimeters are shown. The results of measuring the sensitivity of a PMK-2 microcalorimeter assembly as a function of integrated neutron flux for three energy intervals and the adsorbed gamma energy are shown. In order to study specimens with different shapes and sizes, microcalorimeters with chambers in the form of cylinders and a parallelepiped were built and tested

  16. Thermal sensitivity of cold climate lizards and the importance of distributional ranges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonino, Marcelo F; Moreno Azócar, Débora L; Schulte, James A; Abdala, Cristian S; Cruz, Félix B

    2015-08-01

    One of the fundamental goals in macroecology is to understand the relationship among species' geographic ranges, ecophysiology, and climate; however, the mechanisms underlying the distributional geographic patterns observed remain unknown for most organisms. In the case of ectotherms this is particularly important because the knowledge of these interactions may provide a robust framework for predicting the potential consequences of climate change in these organisms. Here we studied the relationship of thermal sensitivity and thermal tolerance in Patagonian lizards and their geographic ranges, proposing that species with wider distributions have broader plasticity and thermal tolerance. We predicted that lizard thermal physiology is related to the thermal characteristics of the environment. We also explored the presence of trade-offs of some thermal traits and evaluated the potential effects of a predicted scenario of climate change for these species. We examined sixteen species of Liolaemini lizards from Patagonia representing species with different geographic range sizes. We obtained thermal tolerance data and performance curves for each species in laboratory trials. We found evidence supporting the idea that higher physiological plasticity allows species to achieve broader distribution ranges compared to species with restricted distributions. We also found a trade-off between broad levels of plasticity and higher optimum temperatures of performance. Finally, results from contrasting performance curves against the highest environmental temperatures that lizards may face in a future scenario (year 2080) suggest that the activity of species occurring at high latitudes may be unaffected by predicted climatic changes. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

  17. Sensitivity of simulated regional Arctic climate to the choice of coupled model domain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dmitry V. Sein

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available The climate over the Arctic has undergone changes in recent decades. In order to evaluate the coupled response of the Arctic system to external and internal forcing, our study focuses on the estimation of regional climate variability and its dependence on large-scale atmospheric and regional ocean circulations. A global ocean–sea ice model with regionally high horizontal resolution is coupled to an atmospheric regional model and global terrestrial hydrology model. This way of coupling divides the global ocean model setup into two different domains: one coupled, where the ocean and the atmosphere are interacting, and one uncoupled, where the ocean model is driven by prescribed atmospheric forcing and runs in a so-called stand-alone mode. Therefore, selecting a specific area for the regional atmosphere implies that the ocean–atmosphere system can develop ‘freely’ in that area, whereas for the rest of the global ocean, the circulation is driven by prescribed atmospheric forcing without any feedbacks. Five different coupled setups are chosen for ensemble simulations. The choice of the coupled domains was done to estimate the influences of the Subtropical Atlantic, Eurasian and North Pacific regions on northern North Atlantic and Arctic climate. Our simulations show that the regional coupled ocean–atmosphere model is sensitive to the choice of the modelled area. The different model configurations reproduce differently both the mean climate and its variability. Only two out of five model setups were able to reproduce the Arctic climate as observed under recent climate conditions (ERA-40 Reanalysis. Evidence is found that the main source of uncertainty for Arctic climate variability and its predictability is the North Pacific. The prescription of North Pacific conditions in the regional model leads to significant correlation with observations, even if the whole North Atlantic is within the coupled model domain. However, the inclusion of the

  18. High blood pressure and visual sensitivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eisner, Alvin; Samples, John R.

    2003-09-01

    The study had two main purposes: (1) to determine whether the foveal visual sensitivities of people treated for high blood pressure (vascular hypertension) differ from the sensitivities of people who have not been diagnosed with high blood pressure and (2) to understand how visual adaptation is related to standard measures of systemic cardiovascular function. Two groups of middle-aged subjects-hypertensive and normotensive-were examined with a series of test/background stimulus combinations. All subjects met rigorous inclusion criteria for excellent ocular health. Although the visual sensitivities of the two subject groups overlapped extensively, the age-related rate of sensitivity loss was, for some measures, greater for the hypertensive subjects, possibly because of adaptation differences between the two groups. Overall, the degree of steady-state sensitivity loss resulting from an increase of background illuminance (for 580-nm backgrounds) was slightly less for the hypertensive subjects. Among normotensive subjects, the ability of a bright (3.8-log-td), long-wavelength (640-nm) adapting background to selectively suppress the flicker response of long-wavelength-sensitive (LWS) cones was related inversely to the ratio of mean arterial blood pressure to heart rate. The degree of selective suppression was also related to heart rate alone, and there was evidence that short-term changes of cardiovascular response were important. The results suggest that (1) vascular hypertension, or possibly its treatment, subtly affects visual function even in the absence of eye disease and (2) changes in blood flow affect retinal light-adaptation processes involved in the selective suppression of the flicker response from LWS cones caused by bright, long-wavelength backgrounds.

  19. Response of climate to regional emissions of ozone precursors: sensitivities and warming potentials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berntsen, T.K.; Fuglestvedt, J.S.; Joshi, M.M.; Shine, K.P.; Hauglustaine, D.A.; Li, L.

    2005-01-01

    The response of climate to ozone perturbations caused by regional emissions of NO x or CO has been studied through a sequence of model simulations. Changes C and OH concentrations due to emission perturbations in Europe and southeast Asia have been calculated with two global 3-D chemical tracer models(CTMs; LMDzINCA and Oslo-CTM2). The radiative transfer codes of three general circulation models (GCMs; ECHAM4, UREAD and LMD) have been used to calculate the radiative forcing of the O 3 perturbations, and for a subset of the cases full GCM simulations have been performed with ECHAM4 and UREAD. The results have been aggregated to a global number in two ways: first, through integrating the global-mean radiative forcing of a sustained step change in emissions, and second through a modified concept (SGWP*) which includes possible differences in the climate sensitivity of O 3 , CH 4 and CO 2 changes. In terms of change in global tropospheric O 3 burden the two CTMs differ by less than 30%. Both CTMs show a higher north/south gradient in the sensitivity to changes in NO x emission than for CO. We are not able to conclude whether real O 3 perturbations in general have a different climate sensitivity from CO 2 . However, in both GCMs high-latitude emission perturbations lead to climate perturbations with higher (10-30%) climate sensitivities. The calculated SGWP*, for a 100 yr time horizon, are negative for three of the four CTM/GCM combinations for European emissions (-9.6 to +6.9), while for the Asian emissions the SGWP* (H=100) is always positive (+2.9 to +25) indicating a warming. For CO the SGWP* values (3.8 and 4.4 for European and Asian emissions respectively, with only the Oslo-CTM2/ECHAM4 model combination) are less regionally dependent. Our results support the view that for NO x , regionally different weighting factors for the emissions are necessary. For CO the results are more robust and one global number may be acceptable

  20. Water sensitive design as a means of adaptation for climate change and urbanisation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Semadeni-Davies, Annette

    2007-01-01

    Full text: Full text: This presentation uses urban drainage to show how climate change impact assessments should also consider changes in resource management, land-use and technology. Although the work was carried out in Sweden (Semadeni-Davies 2004; 2007 a, b), the findings are relevant for Australia and New Zealand as these countries are currently moving away from pipe stormwater networks towards open water systems. Urban areas are characterised by high peak flows and fast response times. A central issue here is that there has been a paradigm shift in urban water management, particularly in new developments where the stormwater system is fast becoming a landscape feature. The shift is part of a worldwide trend called water sensitive design (WSD) or low impact design (LID). Ponds, wetlands, infiltration trenches, and porous paving are common examples of WSD elements intended to reduce peak stormwater and contaminant transport while maintaining low flows. Even in city centres where land values are at a premium, there has been an interest in retro-fitting for WSD. It is important for those interested in the impacts of climate change on urban areas to know this background information, as WSD may offer a means of adapting to climate change. However, there is a major stumbling block - the output from regional climate models is currently not at a sufficient spatial or temporal resolution to assess theimpact on urban drainage as the processes operate on a scale of minutes and metres (Shilling 1991). The disparity in resolution is also problematic for the design of future-proofed urban water systems as this requires information on rainfall intensity and frequency. To illustrate the effect of WSD, the potential impacts of climate change and urbanisation on flow were assessed both separately and together using DHI software (MIKE SHE, MOUSE) for Helsingborg in two related studies for combined and separate sewers. The Swedish regional climate model developed at the Rossby

  1. Quantifying the increasing sensitivity of power systems to climate variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bloomfield, H. C.; Brayshaw, D. J.; Shaffrey, L. C.; Coker, P. J.; Thornton, H. E.

    2016-12-01

    Large quantities of weather-dependent renewable energy generation are expected in power systems under climate change mitigation policies, yet little attention has been given to the impact of long term climate variability. By combining state-of-the-art multi-decadal meteorological records with a parsimonious representation of a power system, this study characterises the impact of year-to-year climate variability on multiple aspects of the power system of Great Britain (including coal, gas and nuclear generation), demonstrating why multi-decadal approaches are necessary. All aspects of the example system are impacted by inter-annual climate variability, with the impacts being most pronounced for baseload generation. The impacts of inter-annual climate variability increase in a 2025 wind-power scenario, with a 4-fold increase in the inter-annual range of operating hours for baseload such as nuclear. The impacts on peak load and peaking-plant are comparably small. Less than 10 years of power supply and demand data are shown to be insufficient for providing robust power system planning guidance. This suggests renewable integration studies—widely used in policy, investment and system design—should adopt a more robust approach to climate characterisation.

  2. Complementarity among climate related energy sources: Sensitivity study to climate characteristics across Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Francois, Baptiste; Hingray, Benoit; Creutin, Jean-Dominique; Raynaud, Damien; Borga, Marco; Vautard, Robert

    2015-04-01

    over a long time period while past studies, to our knowledge, have used less than 10 year time period. References: Vautard, R., Thais, F., Tobin, I., Bréon, F.-M., de Lavergne, J.-G.D., Colette, A., Yiou, P., and Ruti, P.M. (2014). Regional climate model simulations indicate limited climatic impacts by operational and planned European wind farms. Nat. Commun. 5, 3196. Haylock, M.R., Hofstra, N., Tank, A.M.G.K., Klok, E.J., Jones, P.D., New, M., 2008. A European daily high-resolution gridded data set of surface temperature and precipitation for 1950-2006. J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos. 113. doi:10.1029/2008JD010201 GRDC (Global Runoff Data Center), 1999. Long-term mean monthly discharges of selected GRDC stations, Global Runoff Data Centre, Koblenz, Germany.

  3. The Milankovitch theory and climate sensitivity. I - Equilibrium climate model solutions for the present surface conditions. II - Interaction between the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets and the climate system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neeman, Binyamin U.; Ohring, George; Joseph, Joachim H.

    1988-01-01

    A seasonal climate model was developed to test the climate sensitivity and, in particular, the Milankovitch (1941) theory. Four climate model versions were implemented to investigate the range of uncertainty in the parameterizations of three basic feedback mechanisms: the ice albedo-temperature, the outgoing long-wave radiation-temperature, and the eddy transport-meridional temperature gradient. It was found that the differences between the simulation of the present climate by the four versions were generally small, especially for annually averaged results. The climate model was also used to study the effect of growing/shrinking of a continental ice sheet, bedrock sinking/uplifting, and sea level changes on the climate system, taking also into account the feedback effects on the climate of the building of the ice caps.

  4. TerraClimate, a high-resolution global dataset of monthly climate and climatic water balance from 1958–2015

    OpenAIRE

    Abatzoglou, John T.; Dobrowski, Solomon Z.; Parks, Sean A.; Hegewisch, Katherine C.

    2018-01-01

    We present TerraClimate, a dataset of high-spatial resolution (1/24°, ~4-km) monthly climate and climatic water balance for global terrestrial surfaces from 1958–2015. TerraClimate uses climatically aided interpolation, combining high-spatial resolution climatological normals from the WorldClim dataset, with coarser resolution time varying (i.e., monthly) data from other sources to produce a monthly dataset of precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature, wind speed, vapor pressure, and sol...

  5. Low Cost, Low Power, High Sensitivity Magnetometer

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-12-01

    which are used to measure the small magnetic signals from brain. Other types of vector magnetometers are fluxgate , coil based, and magnetoresistance...concentrator with the magnetometer currently used in Army multimodal sensor systems, the Brown fluxgate . One sees the MEMS fluxgate magnetometer is...Guedes, A.; et al., 2008: Hybrid - LOW COST, LOW POWER, HIGH SENSITIVITY MAGNETOMETER A.S. Edelstein*, James E. Burnette, Greg A. Fischer, M.G

  6. A global model of malaria climate sensitivity: comparing malaria response to historic climate data based on simulation and officially reported malaria incidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edlund Stefan

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The role of the Anopheles vector in malaria transmission and the effect of climate on Anopheles populations are well established. Models of the impact of climate change on the global malaria burden now have access to high-resolution climate data, but malaria surveillance data tends to be less precise, making model calibration problematic. Measurement of malaria response to fluctuations in climate variables offers a way to address these difficulties. Given the demonstrated sensitivity of malaria transmission to vector capacity, this work tests response functions to fluctuations in land surface temperature and precipitation. Methods This study of regional sensitivity of malaria incidence to year-to-year climate variations used an extended Macdonald Ross compartmental disease model (to compute malaria incidence built on top of a global Anopheles vector capacity model (based on 10 years of satellite climate data. The predicted incidence was compared with estimates from the World Health Organization and the Malaria Atlas. The models and denominator data used are freely available through the Eclipse Foundation’s Spatiotemporal Epidemiological Modeller (STEM. Results Although the absolute scale factor relating reported malaria to absolute incidence is uncertain, there is a positive correlation between predicted and reported year-to-year variation in malaria burden with an averaged root mean square (RMS error of 25% comparing normalized incidence across 86 countries. Based on this, the proposed measure of sensitivity of malaria to variations in climate variables indicates locations where malaria is most likely to increase or decrease in response to specific climate factors. Bootstrapping measures the increased uncertainty in predicting malaria sensitivity when reporting is restricted to national level and an annual basis. Results indicate a potential 20x improvement in accuracy if data were available at the level ISO 3166–2

  7. Climate change sensitivity index for Pacific salmon habitat in southeast Alaska.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Colin S Shanley

    Full Text Available Global climate change may become one of the most pressing challenges to Pacific Salmon conservation and management for southeast Alaska in the 21st Century. Predicted hydrologic change associated with climate change will likely challenge the ability of specific stocks to adapt to new flow regimes and resulting shifts in spawning and rearing habitats. Current research suggests egg-to-fry survival may be one of the most important freshwater limiting factors in Pacific Salmon's northern range due to more frequent flooding events predicted to scour eggs from mobile spawning substrates. A watershed-scale hydroclimatic sensitivity index was developed to map this hypothesis with an historical stream gauge station dataset and monthly multiple regression-based discharge models. The relative change from present to future watershed conditions predicted for the spawning and incubation period (September to March was quantified using an ensemble global climate model average (ECHAM5, HadCM3, and CGCM3.1 and three global greenhouse gas emission scenarios (B1, A1B, and A2 projected to the year 2080. The models showed the region's diverse physiography and climatology resulted in a relatively predictable pattern of change: northern mainland and steeper, snow-fed mountainous watersheds exhibited the greatest increases in discharge, an earlier spring melt, and a transition into rain-fed hydrologic patterns. Predicted streamflow increases for all watersheds ranged from approximately 1-fold to 3-fold for the spawning and incubation period, with increased peak flows in the spring and fall. The hydroclimatic sensitivity index was then combined with an index of currently mapped salmon habitat and species diversity to develop a research and conservation priority matrix, highlighting potentially vulnerable to resilient high-value watersheds. The resulting matrix and observed trends are put forth as a framework to prioritize long-term monitoring plans, mitigation

  8. Reservoir Performance Under Future Climate For Basins With Different Hydrologic Sensitivities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mateus, M. C.; Tullos, D. D.

    2013-12-01

    In addition to long-standing uncertainties related to variable inflows and market price of power, reservoir operators face a number of new uncertainties related to hydrologic nonstationarity, changing environmental regulations, and rapidly growing water and energy demands. This study investigates the impact, sensitivity, and uncertainty of changing hydrology on hydrosystem performance across different hydrogeologic settings. We evaluate the performance of reservoirs in the Santiam River basin, including a case study in the North Santiam Basin, with high permeability and extensive groundwater storage, and the South Santiam Basin, with low permeability, little groundwater storage and rapid runoff response. The modeling objective is to address the following study questions: (1) for the two hydrologic regimes, how does the flood management, water supply, and environmental performance of current reservoir operations change under future 2.5, 50 and 97.5 percentile streamflow projections; and (2) how much change in inflow is required to initiate a failure to meet downstream minimum or maximum flows in the future. We couple global climate model results with a rainfall-runoff model and a formal Bayesian uncertainty analysis to simulate future inflow hydrographs as inputs to a reservoir operations model. To evaluate reservoir performance under a changing climate, we calculate reservoir refill reliability, changes in flood frequency, and reservoir time and volumetric reliability of meeting minimum spring and summer flow target. Reservoir performance under future hydrology appears to vary with hydrogeology. We find higher sensitivity to floods for the North Santiam Basin and higher sensitivity to minimum flow targets for the South Santiam Basin. Higher uncertainty is related with basins with a more complex hydrologeology. Results from model simulations contribute to understanding of the reliability and vulnerability of reservoirs to a changing climate.

  9. Sensitivity of ocean acidification and oxygen to the uncertainty in climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cao, Long; Wang, Shuangjing; Zheng, Meidi; Zhang, Han

    2014-01-01

    Due to increasing atmospheric CO 2 concentrations and associated climate change, the global ocean is undergoing substantial physical and biogeochemical changes. Among these, changes in ocean oxygen and carbonate chemistry have great implication for marine biota. There is considerable uncertainty in the projections of future climate change, and it is unclear how the uncertainty in climate change would also affect the projection of oxygen and carbonate chemistry. To investigate this issue, we use an Earth system model of intermediate complexity to perform a set of simulations, including that which involves no radiative effect of atmospheric CO 2 and those which involve CO 2 -induced climate change with climate sensitivity varying from 0.5 °C to 4.5 °C. Atmospheric CO 2 concentration is prescribed to follow RCP 8.5 pathway and its extensions. Climate change affects carbonate chemistry and oxygen mainly through its impact on ocean temperature, ocean ventilation, and concentration of dissolved inorganic carbon and alkalinity. It is found that climate change mitigates the decrease of carbonate ions at the ocean surface but has negligible effect on surface ocean pH. Averaged over the whole ocean, climate change acts to decrease oxygen concentration but mitigates the CO 2 -induced reduction of carbonate ion and pH. In our simulations, by year 2500, every degree increase of climate sensitivity warms the ocean by 0.8 °C and reduces ocean-mean dissolved oxygen concentration by 5.0%. Meanwhile, every degree increase of climate sensitivity buffers CO 2 -induced reduction in ocean-mean carbonate ion concentration and pH by 3.4% and 0.02 units, respectively. Our study demonstrates different sensitivities of ocean temperature, carbonate chemistry, and oxygen, in terms of both the sign and magnitude to the amount of climate change, which have great implications for understanding the response of ocean biota to climate change. (letters)

  10. Economics of climate change : sensitivity analysis of social cost of carbon

    OpenAIRE

    Torniainen, Sami

    2016-01-01

    Social cost of carbon (SCC) is the key concept in the economics of climate change. It measures the economic cost of climate impacts. SCC has influence on how beneficial it is to prevent climate change: if the value of SCC increases, investments to low-carbon technology become more attractive and profitable. This paper examines the sensitivity of two important assumptions that affect to SCC: the choice of a discount rate and time horizon. Using the integrated assessment model, ...

  11. The influence of the albedo-temperature feedback on climate sensitivity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bintanja, R.; Oerlemans, J.

    1995-01-01

    A vertically integrated, zonally averaged energy-balance climate model coupled to a two-dimensional ocean model with prescribed overturning pattern is employed to assess the seasonally and latitudinally varying response of the climate system to changes in radiative forcing. Since the sensitivity

  12. Sensitivity of summer stream temperatures to climate variability in the Pacific Northwest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charles Luce; Brian Staab; Marc Kramer; Seth Wenger; Dan Isaak; Callie McConnell

    2014-01-01

    Estimating the thermal response of streams to a warming climate is important for prioritizing native fish conservation efforts. While there are plentiful estimates of air temperature responses to climate change, the sensitivity of streams, particularly small headwater streams, to warming temperatures is less well understood. A substantial body of literature correlates...

  13. Community vulnerability to climate change in the context of other exposure-sensitivities in Kugluktuk, Nunavut

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura Tozer

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Climate change in the Canadian north is, and will be, managed by communities that are already experiencing social, political, economic and other environmental changes. Hence, there is a need to understand vulnerability to climate change in the context of multiple exposure-sensitivities at the community level. This article responds to this perceived knowledge need based on a case study of the community of Kugluktuk in Nunavut, Canada. An established approach for vulnerability assessment is used to identify current climatic and non-climatic exposure-sensitivities along with their associated contemporary adaptation strategies. This assessment of current vulnerability is used as a basis to consider Kugluktuk's possible vulnerability to climatic change in the future. Current climate-related exposure-sensitivities in Kugluktuk relate primarily to subsistence harvesting and community infrastructure. Thinner and less stable ice conditions and unpredictable weather patterns are making travel and harvesting more dangerous and some community infrastructure is sensitive to permafrost melt and extreme weather events (e.g., flash floods. The ability of individuals and households to adapt to these and other climatic exposure-sensitivities is influenced by non-climatic factors that condition adaptive capacity including substance abuse, the erosion of traditional knowledge and youth suicide. These and other non-climatic factors often underpin adaptive capacity to deal with and adapt to changing conditions and must be considered in an assessment of vulnerability. This research argues that Northern communities are challenged by multiple exposure-sensitivities—beyond just those posed by climate—and effective adaptation to climate change requires consideration if not resolution of socio-economic and other issues in communities.

  14. Sensitivity of Regulated Flow Regimes to Climate Change in the Western United States

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhou, Tian [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington; Voisin, Nathalie [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington; Leng, Guoyong [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington; Huang, Maoyi [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington; Kraucunas, Ian [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington

    2018-03-01

    Water management activities or flow regulations modify water fluxes at the land surface and affect water resources in space and time. We hypothesize that flow regulations change the sensitivity of river flow to climate change with respect to unmanaged water resources. Quantifying these changes in sensitivity could help elucidate the impacts of water management at different spatiotemporal scales and inform climate adaptation decisions. In this study, we compared the emergence of significant changes in natural and regulated river flow regimes across the Western United States from simulations driven by multiple climate models and scenarios. We find that significant climate change-induced alterations in natural flow do not cascade linearly through water management activities. At the annual time scale, 50% of the Hydrologic Unit Code 4 (HUC4) sub-basins over the Western U.S. regions tend to have regulated flow regime more sensitive to the climate change than natural flow regime. Seasonality analyses show that the sensitivity varies remarkably across the seasons. We also find that the sensitivity is related to the level of water management. For 35% of the HUC4 sub-basins with the highest level of water management, the summer and winter flows tend to show a heightened sensitivity to climate change due to the complexity of joint reservoir operations. We further demonstrate that the impacts of considering water management in models are comparable to those that arises from uncertainties across climate models and emission scenarios. This prompts further climate adaptation studies research about nonlinearity effects of climate change through water management activities.

  15. Eocene climate and Arctic paleobathymetry: A tectonic sensitivity study using GISS ModelE-R

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, C. D.; Legrande, A. N.; Tripati, A. K.

    2009-12-01

    The early Paleogene (65-45 million years ago, Ma) was a ‘greenhouse’ interval with global temperatures warmer than any other time in the last 65 Ma. This period was characterized by high levels of CO2, warm high-latitudes, warm surface-and-deep oceans, and an intensified hydrological cycle. Sediments from the Arctic suggest that the Eocene surface Arctic Ocean was warm, brackish, and episodically enabled the freshwater fern Azolla to bloom. The precise mechanisms responsible for the development of these conditions remain uncertain. We present equilibrium climate conditions derived from a fully-coupled, water-isotope enabled, general circulation model (GISS ModelE-R) configured for the early Eocene. We also present model-data comparison plots for key climatic variables (SST and δ18O) and analyses of the leading modes of variability in the tropical Pacific and North Atlantic regions. Our tectonic sensitivity study indicates that Northern Hemisphere climate would have been very sensitive to the degree of oceanic exchange through the seaways connecting the Arctic to the Atlantic and Tethys. By restricting these seaways, we simulate freshening of the surface Arctic Ocean to ~6 psu and warming of sea-surface temperatures by 2°C in the North Atlantic and 5-10°C in the Labrador Sea. Our results may help explain the occurrence of low-salinity tolerant taxa in the Arctic Ocean during the Eocene and provide a mechanism for enhanced warmth in the north western Atlantic. We also suggest that the formation of a volcanic land-bridge between Greenland and Europe could have caused increased ocean convection and warming of intermediate waters in the Atlantic. If true, this result is consistent with the theory that bathymetry changes may have caused thermal destabilisation of methane clathrates in the Atlantic.

  16. Climate sensitivity of DSSAT under different agriculture practice scenarios in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xia, L.; Robock, A.

    2014-12-01

    Crop yields are sensitive to both agricultural practice and climate changes. Under different agricultural practice scenarios, crop yield may have different climate sensitivities. Since it is important to understand how future climate changes affect agriculture productivity and what the potential adaptation strategies would be to compensate for possible negative impacts on crop production, we performed experiments to study climate sensitivity under different agricultural practice scenarios for rice, maize and wheat in the top four production provinces in China using the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) crop model. The agricultural practice scenarios include four categories: different amounts of nitrogen fertilizer or no nitrogen stress; irrigation turned on or off, or no water stress; all possible seeds in the DSSAT cultivar data base; and different planting dates. For the climate sensitivity test, the control climate is from 1998 to 2007, and we individually modify four climate variables: daily maximum and minimum temperature by +2 °C and -2 °C, daily precipitation by +20% and -20%, and daily solar radiation by + 20% and -20%. With more nitrogen fertilizer applied, crops are more sensitive to temperature changes as well as precipitation changes because of their release from nitrogen limitation. With irrigation turned on, crop yield sensitivity to temperature decreases in most of the regions depending on the amount of the local precipitation, since more water is available and soil temperature varies less with higher soil moisture. Those results indicate that there could be possible agriculture adaptation strategies under certain future climate scenarios. For example, increasing nitrogen fertilizer usage by a certain amount might compensate for the negative impact on crop yield from climate changes. However, since crops are more sensitive to climate changes when there is more nitrogen fertilizer applied, if the climate changes are

  17. Review of high-sensitivity Radon studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wojcik, M.; Zuzel, G.; Simgen, H.

    2017-10-01

    A challenge in many present cutting-edge particle physics experiments is the stringent requirements in terms of radioactive background. In peculiar, the prevention of Radon, a radioactive noble gas, which occurs from ambient air and it is also released by emanation from the omnipresent progenitor Radium. In this paper we review various high-sensitivity Radon detection techniques and approaches, applied in the experiments looking for rare nuclear processes happening at low energies. They allow to identify, quantitatively measure and finally suppress the numerous sources of Radon in the detectors’ components and plants.

  18. A Data-Driven Assessment of the Sensitivity of Global Ecosystems to Climate Anomalies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miralles, D. G.; Papagiannopoulou, C.; Demuzere, M.; Decubber, S.; Waegeman, W.; Verhoest, N.; Dorigo, W.

    2017-12-01

    Vegetation is a central player in the climate system, constraining atmospheric conditions through a series of feedbacks. This fundamental role highlights the importance of understanding regional drivers of ecological sensitivity and the response of vegetation to climatic changes. While nutrient availability and short-term disturbances can be crucial for vegetation at various spatiotemporal scales, natural vegetation dynamics are overall driven by climate. At monthly scales, the interactions between vegetation and climate become complex: some vegetation types react preferentially to specific climatic changes, with different levels of intensity, resilience and lagged response. For our current Earth System Models (ESMs) being able to capture this complexity is crucial but extremely challenging. This adds uncertainty to our projections of future climate and the fate of global ecosystems. Here, following a Granger causality framework based on a non-linear random forest predictive model, we exploit the current wealth of satellite data records to uncover the main climatic drivers of monthly vegetation variability globally. Results based on three decades of satellite data indicate that water availability is the most dominant factor driving vegetation in over 60% of the vegetated land. This overall dependency of ecosystems on water availability is larger than previously reported, partly owed to the ability of our machine-learning framework to disentangle the co-linearites between climatic drivers, and to quantify non-linear impacts of climate on vegetation. Our observation-based results are then used to benchmark ESMs on their representation of vegetation sensitivity to climate and climatic extremes. Our findings indicate that the sensitivity of vegetation to climatic anomalies is ill-reproduced by some widely-used ESMs.

  19. Predicting Climate-sensitive Infectious Diseases: Development of a Federal Science Plan and the Path Forward

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trtanj, J.; Balbus, J. M.; Brown, C.; Shimamoto, M. M.

    2017-12-01

    The transmission and spread of infectious diseases, especially vector-borne diseases, water-borne diseases and zoonosis, are influenced by short and long-term climate factors, in conjunction with numerous other drivers. Public health interventions, including vaccination, vector control programs, and outreach campaigns could be made more effective if the geographic range and timing of increased disease risk could be more accurately targeted, and high risk areas and populations identified. While some progress has been made in predictive modeling for transmission of these diseases using climate and weather data as inputs, they often still start after the first case appears, the skill of those models remains limited, and their use by public health officials infrequent. And further, predictions with lead times of weeks, months or seasons are even rarer, yet the value of acting early holds the potential to save more lives, reduce cost and enhance both economic and national security. Information on high-risk populations and areas for infectious diseases is also potentially useful for the federal defense and intelligence communities as well. The US Global Change Research Program, through its Interagency Group on Climate Change and Human Health (CCHHG), has put together a science plan that pulls together federal scientists and programs working on predictive modeling of climate-sensitive diseases, and draws on academic and other partners. Through a series of webinars and an in-person workshop, the CCHHG has convened key federal and academic stakeholders to assess the current state of science and develop an integrated science plan to identify data and observation systems needs as well as a targeted research agenda for enhancing predictive modeling. This presentation will summarize the findings from this effort and engage AGU members on plans and next steps to improve predictive modeling for infectious diseases.

  20. Sensitivity of climate models: Comparison of simulated and observed patterns for past climates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prell, W.L.; Webb, T. III.

    1992-08-01

    Predicting the potential climatic effects of increased concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide requires the continuing development of climate models. Confidence in the predictions will be much enhanced once the models are thoroughly tested in terms of their ability to simulate climates that differ significantly from today's climate. As one index of the magnitude of past climate change, the global mean temperature increase during the past 18,000 years is similar to that predicted for carbon dioxide--doubling. Simulating the climatic changes of the past 18,000 years, as well as the warmer-than-present climate of 6000 years ago and the climate of the last interglacial, around 126,000 years ago, provides an excellent opportunity to test the models that are being used in global climate change research. During the past several years, we have used paleoclimatic data to test the accuracy of the National Center for Atmospheric Research, Community Climate Model, Version 0, after changing its boundary conditions to those appropriate for past climates. We have assembled regional and near-global paleoclimatic data sets of pollen, lake level, and marine plankton data and calibrated many of the data in terms of climatic variables. We have also developed methods that permit direct quantitative comparisons between the data and model results. Our research has shown that comparing the model results with the data is an evolutionary process, because the models, the data, and the methods for comparison are continually being improved. During 1992, we have completed new modeling experiments, further analyzed previous model experiments, compiled new paleodata, made new comparisons between data and model results, and participated in workshops on paleoclimatic modeling

  1. Climate change in Germany. Vulnerability and adaption of climate sensitive sectors; Klimawandel in Deutschland. Vulnerabilitaet und Anpassungsstrategien klimasensitiver Systeme

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zebisch, Marc; Grothmann, Torsten; Schroeter, Dagmar; Hasse, Clemens; Fritsch, Uta; Cramer, Wolfgang [Potsdam Institut fuer Klimaforschung, Potsdam (Germany)

    2005-08-15

    The objectives of this study were the following: documentation of existing knowledge on global change (and particularly climate change) in Germany and to analysis of its current and potential future impacts on seven climate-sensitive sectors (water management, agriculture, forestry, biodiversity/nature conservation, health, tourism and transport).; the evaluation of the present degree of adaptation and the adaptive capacity of these climate-sensitive sectors to global change; conclusions on the vulnerability to global change of sectors and regions in Germany by considering potential global change impacts, degrees of adaptation and adaptive capacity; and the discussion of the results of the study with decision-makers from government, administration, economy and society, in order to develop a basis for the development of strategies of adaptation to global change in Germany.

  2. Impact of Greenland and Antarctic ice sheet interactions on climate sensitivity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goelzer, H.; Huybrechts, P. [Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Earth System Sciences and Departement Geografie, Brussels (Belgium); Loutre, M.F.; Goosse, H.; Fichefet, T. [Universite Catholique de Louvain, Georges Lemaitre Centre for Earth and Climate Research (TECLIM), Earth and Life Institute, Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium); Mouchet, A. [Universite de Liege, Laboratoire de Physique Atmospherique et Planetaire, Liege (Belgium)

    2011-09-15

    We use the Earth system model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM to show the effect of coupling interactive ice sheets on the climate sensitivity of the model on a millennial time scale. We compare the response to a 2 x CO{sub 2} warming scenario between fully coupled model versions including interactive Greenland and Antarctic ice sheet models and model versions with fixed ice sheets. For this purpose an ensemble of different parameter sets have been defined for LOVECLIM, covering a wide range of the model's sensitivity to greenhouse warming, while still simulating the present-day climate and the climate evolution over the last millennium within observational uncertainties. Additional freshwater fluxes from the melting ice sheets have a mitigating effect on the model's temperature response, leading to generally lower climate sensitivities of the fully coupled model versions. The mitigation is effectuated by changes in heat exchange within the ocean and at the sea-air interface, driven by freshening of the surface ocean and amplified by sea-ice-related feedbacks. The strength of the effect depends on the response of the ice sheets to the warming and on the model's climate sensitivity itself. The effect is relatively strong in model versions with higher climate sensitivity due to the relatively large polar amplification of LOVECLIM. With the ensemble approach in this study we cover a wide range of possible model responses. (orig.)

  3. High sensitivity troponin and valvular heart disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCarthy, Cian P; Donnellan, Eoin; Phelan, Dermot; Griffin, Brian P; Enriquez-Sarano, Maurice; McEvoy, John W

    2017-07-01

    Blood-based biomarkers have been extensively studied in a range of cardiovascular diseases and have established utility in routine clinical care, most notably in the diagnosis of acute coronary syndrome (e.g., troponin) and the management of heart failure (e.g., brain-natriuretic peptide). The role of biomarkers is less well established in the management of valvular heart disease (VHD), in which the optimal timing of surgical intervention is often challenging. One promising biomarker that has been the subject of a number of recent VHD research studies is high sensitivity troponin (hs-cTn). Novel high-sensitivity assays can detect subclinical myocardial damage in asymptomatic individuals. Thus, hs-cTn may have utility in the assessment of asymptomatic patients with severe VHD who do not have a clear traditional indication for surgical intervention. In this state-of-the-art review, we examine the current evidence for hs-cTn as a potential biomarker in the most commonly encountered VHD conditions, aortic stenosis and mitral regurgitation. This review provides a synopsis of early evidence indicating that hs-cTn has promise as a biomarker in VHD. However, the impact of its measurement on clinical practice and VHD outcomes needs to be further assessed in prospective studies before routine clinical use becomes a reality. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Empirically Derived and Simulated Sensitivity of Vegetation to Climate Across Global Gradients of Temperature and Precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quetin, G. R.; Swann, A. L. S.

    2017-12-01

    Successfully predicting the state of vegetation in a novel environment is dependent on our process level understanding of the ecosystem and its interactions with the environment. We derive a global empirical map of the sensitivity of vegetation to climate using the response of satellite-observed greenness and leaf area to interannual variations in temperature and precipitation. Our analysis provides observations of ecosystem functioning; the vegetation interactions with the physical environment, across a wide range of climates and provide a functional constraint for hypotheses engendered in process-based models. We infer mechanisms constraining ecosystem functioning by contrasting how the observed and simulated sensitivity of vegetation to climate varies across climate space. Our analysis yields empirical evidence for multiple physical and biological mediators of the sensitivity of vegetation to climate as a systematic change across climate space. Our comparison of remote sensing-based vegetation sensitivity with modeled estimates provides evidence for which physiological mechanisms - photosynthetic efficiency, respiration, water supply, atmospheric water demand, and sunlight availability - dominate the ecosystem functioning in places with different climates. Earth system models are generally successful in reproducing the broad sign and shape of ecosystem functioning across climate space. However, this general agreement breaks down in hot wet climates where models simulate less leaf area during a warmer year, while observations show a mixed response but overall more leaf area during warmer years. In addition, simulated ecosystem interaction with temperature is generally larger and changes more rapidly across a gradient of temperature than is observed. We hypothesize that the amplified interaction and change are both due to a lack of adaptation and acclimation in simulations. This discrepancy with observations suggests that simulated responses of vegetation to

  5. Global Sensitivity of Simulated Water Balance Indicators Under Future Climate Change in the Colorado Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennett, Katrina E.; Urrego Blanco, Jorge R.; Jonko, Alexandra; Bohn, Theodore J.; Atchley, Adam L.; Urban, Nathan M.; Middleton, Richard S.

    2018-01-01

    The Colorado River Basin is a fundamentally important river for society, ecology, and energy in the United States. Streamflow estimates are often provided using modeling tools which rely on uncertain parameters; sensitivity analysis can help determine which parameters impact model results. Despite the fact that simulated flows respond to changing climate and vegetation in the basin, parameter sensitivity of the simulations under climate change has rarely been considered. In this study, we conduct a global sensitivity analysis to relate changes in runoff, evapotranspiration, snow water equivalent, and soil moisture to model parameters in the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model. We combine global sensitivity analysis with a space-filling Latin Hypercube Sampling of the model parameter space and statistical emulation of the VIC model to examine sensitivities to uncertainties in 46 model parameters following a variance-based approach. We find that snow-dominated regions are much more sensitive to uncertainties in VIC parameters. Although baseflow and runoff changes respond to parameters used in previous sensitivity studies, we discover new key parameter sensitivities. For instance, changes in runoff and evapotranspiration are sensitive to albedo, while changes in snow water equivalent are sensitive to canopy fraction and Leaf Area Index (LAI) in the VIC model. It is critical for improved modeling to narrow uncertainty in these parameters through improved observations and field studies. This is important because LAI and albedo are anticipated to change under future climate and narrowing uncertainty is paramount to advance our application of models such as VIC for water resource management.

  6. Highly sensitive high resolution Raman spectroscopy using resonant ionization methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Owyoung, A.; Esherick, P.

    1984-05-01

    In recent years, the introduction of stimulated Raman methods has offered orders of magnitude improvement in spectral resolving power for gas phase Raman studies. Nevertheless, the inherent weakness of the Raman process suggests the need for significantly more sensitive techniques in Raman spectroscopy. In this we describe a new approach to this problem. Our new technique, which we call ionization-detected stimulated Raman spectroscopy (IDSRS), combines high-resolution SRS with highly-sensitive resonant laser ionization to achieve an increase in sensitivity of over three orders of magnitude. The excitation/detection process involves three sequential steps: (1) population of a vibrationally excited state via stimulated Raman pumping; (2) selective ionization of the vibrationally excited molecule with a tunable uv source; and (3) collection of the ionized species at biased electrodes where they are detected as current in an external circuit

  7. Sensitivity of the carbon cycle in the Arctic to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGuire, A. David; Anderson, Leif G.; Christensen, Torben R.; Dallimore, Scott; Guo, Laodong; Hayes, Daniel J.; Heimann, Martin; Lorenson, T.D.; Macdonald, Robie W.; Roulet, Nigel

    2009-01-01

    The recent warming in the Arctic is affecting a broad spectrum of physical, ecological, and human/cultural systems that may be irreversible on century time scales and have the potential to cause rapid changes in the earth system. The response of the carbon cycle of the Arctic to changes in climate is a major issue of global concern, yet there has not been a comprehensive review of the status of the contemporary carbon cycle of the Arctic and its response to climate change. This review is designed to clarify key uncertainties and vulnerabilities in the response of the carbon cycle of the Arctic to ongoing climatic change. While it is clear that there are substantial stocks of carbon in the Arctic, there are also significant uncertainties associated with the magnitude of organic matter stocks contained in permafrost and the storage of methane hydrates beneath both subterranean and submerged permafrost of the Arctic. In the context of the global carbon cycle, this review demonstrates that the Arctic plays an important role in the global dynamics of both CO2 and CH4. Studies suggest that the Arctic has been a sink for atmospheric CO2 of between 0 and 0.8 Pg C/yr in recent decades, which is between 0% and 25% of the global net land/ocean flux during the 1990s. The Arctic is a substantial source of CH4 to the atmosphere (between 32 and 112 Tg CH4/yr), primarily because of the large area of wetlands throughout the region. Analyses to date indicate that the sensitivity of the carbon cycle of the Arctic during the remainder of the 21st century is highly uncertain. To improve the capability to assess the sensitivity of the carbon cycle of the Arctic to projected climate change, we recommend that (1) integrated regional studies be conducted to link observations of carbon dynamics to the processes that are likely to influence those dynamics, and (2) the understanding gained from these integrated studies be incorporated into both uncoupled and fully coupled carbon–climate

  8. Ocean Biological Pump Sensitivities and Implications for Climate Change Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romanou, Anastasia

    2013-01-01

    The ocean is one of the principal reservoirs of CO2, a greenhouse gas, and therefore plays a crucial role in regulating Earth's climate. Currently, the ocean sequesters about a third of anthropogenic CO2 emissions, mitigating the human impact on climate. At the same time, the deeper ocean represents the largest carbon pool in the Earth System and processes that describe the transfer of carbon from the surface of the ocean to depth are intimately linked to the effectiveness of carbon sequestration.The ocean biological pump (OBP), which involves several biogeochemical processes, is a major pathway for transfer of carbon from the surface mixed layer into the ocean interior. About 75 of the carbon vertical gradient is due to the carbon pump with only 25 attributed to the solubility pump. However, the relative importance and role of the two pumps is poorly constrained. OBP is further divided to the organic carbon pump (soft tissue pump) and the carbonate pump, with the former exporting about 10 times more carbon than the latter through processes like remineralization.Major uncertainties about OBP, and hence in the carbon uptake and sequestration, stem from uncertainties in processes involved in OBP such as particulate organicinorganic carbon sinkingsettling, remineralization, microbial degradation of DOC and uptakegrowth rate changes of the ocean biology. The deep ocean is a major sink of atmospheric CO2 in scales of hundreds to thousands of years, but how the export efficiency (i.e. the fraction of total carbon fixation at the surface that is transported at depth) is affected by climate change remains largely undetermined. These processes affect the ocean chemistry (alkalinity, pH, DIC, particulate and dissolved organic carbon) as well as the ecology (biodiversity, functional groups and their interactions) in the ocean. It is important to have a rigorous, quantitative understanding of the uncertainties involved in the observational measurements, the models and the

  9. Sensitivity of the Greenland Ice Sheet to Interglacial Climate Forcing: MIS 5e Versus MIS 11

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rachmayani, Rima; Prange, Matthias; Lunt, Daniel J.; Stone, Emma J.; Schulz, Michael

    2017-11-01

    The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) is thought to have contributed substantially to high global sea levels during the interglacials of Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5e and 11. Geological evidence suggests that the mass loss of the GrIS was greater during the peak interglacial of MIS 11 than MIS 5e, despite a weaker boreal summer insolation. We address this conundrum by using the three-dimensional thermomechanical ice sheet model Glimmer forced by Community Climate System Model version 3 output for MIS 5e and MIS 11 interglacial time slices. Our results suggest a stronger sensitivity of the GrIS to MIS 11 climate forcing than to MIS 5e forcing. Besides stronger greenhouse gas radiative forcing, the greater MIS 11 GrIS mass loss relative to MIS 5e is attributed to a larger oceanic heat transport toward high latitudes by a stronger Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. The vigorous MIS 11 ocean overturning, in turn, is related to a stronger wind-driven salt transport from low to high latitudes promoting North Atlantic Deep Water formation. The orbital insolation forcing, which causes the ocean current anomalies, is discussed.

  10. Sensitivity of water resources in the Delaware River basin to climate variability and change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ayers, Mark A.; Wolock, David M.; McCabe, Gregory J.; Hay, Lauren E.; Tasker, Gary D.

    1994-01-01

    Because of the greenhouse effect, projected increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide levels might cause global warming, which in turn could result in changes in precipitation patterns and evapotranspiration and in increases in sea level. This report describes the greenhouse effect; discusses the problems and uncertainties associated with the detection, prediction, and effects of climate change; and presents the results of sensitivity analyses of how climate change might affect water resources in the Delaware River basin. Sensitivity analyses suggest that potentially serious shortfalls of certain water resources in the basin could result if some scenarios for climate change come true . The results of model simulations of the basin streamflow demonstrate the difficulty in distinguishing the effects that climate change versus natural climate variability have on streamflow and water supply . The future direction of basin changes in most water resources, furthermore, cannot be precisely determined because of uncertainty in current projections of regional temperature and precipitation . This large uncertainty indicates that, for resource planning, information defining the sensitivities of water resources to a range of climate change is most relevant . The sensitivity analyses could be useful in developing contingency plans for evaluating and responding to changes, should they occur.

  11. CALDER: High-sensitivity cryogenic light detectors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Casali, N.; Bellini, F.; Cardani, L.

    2017-01-01

    The current bolometric experiments searching for rare processes such as neutrinoless double-beta decay or dark matter interaction demand for cryogenic light detectors with high sensitivity, large active area and excellent scalability and radio-purity in order to reduce their background budget. The CALDER project aims to develop such kind of light detectors implementing phonon-mediated Kinetic Inductance Detectors (KIDs). The goal for this project is the realization of a 5 × 5 cm"2 light detector working between 10 and 100mK with a baseline resolution RMS below 20 eV. In this work the characteristics and the performances of the prototype detectors developed in the first project phase will be shown.

  12. High sensitive radiation detector for radiology dosimetry

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Valente, M.; Malano, F. [Instituto de Fisica Enrique Gaviola, Oficina 102 FaMAF - UNC, Av. Luis Medina Allende, Ciudad Universitaria, 5000 Cordoba (Argentina); Molina, W.; Vedelago, J., E-mail: valente@famac.unc.edu.ar [Laboratorio de Investigaciones e Instrumentacion en Fisica Aplicada a la Medicina e Imagenes por Rayos X, Laboratorio 448 FaMAF - UNC, Ciudad Universitaria, 5000 Cordoba (Argentina)

    2014-08-15

    Fricke solution has a wide range of applications as radiation detector and dosimetry. It is particularly appreciated in terms of relevant comparative advantages, like tissue equivalence when prepared in aqueous media like gel matrix, continuous mapping capability, dose rate recorded and incident direction independence as well as linear dose response. This work presents the development and characterization of a novel Fricke gel system, based on modified chemical compositions making possible its application in clinical radiology. Properties of standard Fricke gel dosimeter for high dose levels are used as starting point and suitable chemical modifications are introduced and carefully investigated in order to attain high resolution for low dose ranges, like those corresponding to radiology interventions. The developed Fricke gel radiation dosimeter system achieves the expected typical dose dependency, actually showing linear response in the dose range from 20 up to 4000 mGy. Systematic investigations including several chemical compositions are carried out in order to obtain a good enough dosimeter response for low dose levels. A suitable composition among those studied is selected as a good candidate for low dose level radiation dosimetry consisting on a modified Fricke solution fixed to a gel matrix containing benzoic acid along with sulfuric acid, ferrous sulfate, xylenol orange and ultra-pure reactive grade water. Dosimeter samples are prepared in standard vials for its in phantom irradiation and further characterization by spectrophotometry measuring visible light transmission and absorbance before and after irradiation. Samples are irradiated by typical kV X-ray tubes and calibrated Farmer type ionization chamber is used as reference to measure dose rates inside phantoms in at vials locations. Once sensitive material composition is already optimized, dose-response curves show significant improvement regarding overall sensitivity for low dose levels. According to

  13. High sensitivity amplifier/discriminator for PWC's

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hansen, S.

    1983-01-01

    The facility support group at Fermilab is designing and building a general purpose beam chamber for use in several locations at the laboratory. This pwc has 128 wires per plane spaced 1 mm apart. An initial production of 25 signal planes is anticipated. In proportional chambers, the size of the signal depends exponentially on the charge stored per unit of length along the anode wire. As the wire spacing decreases, the capacitance per unit length decreases, thereby requiring increased applied voltage to restore the necessary charge per unit length. In practical terms, this phenomenon is responsible for difficulties in constructing chambers with less than 2 mm wire spacing. 1 mm chambers, therefore, are frequently operated very near to their breakdown point and/or a high gain gas containing organic compounds such as magic gas is used. This argon/iso-butane mixture has three drawbacks: it is explosive when exposed to the air, it leaves a residue on the wires after extended use and is costly. An amplifier with higher sensitivity would reduce the problems associated with operating chambers with small wire spacings and allow them to be run a safe margin below their breakdown voltage even with an inorganic gas mixture such as argon/CO2, this eliminating the need to use magic gas. Described here is a low cost amplifier with a usable threshold of less than 0.5 μA. Data on the performance of this amplifier/discriminator in operation on a prototype beam chamber are given. This data shows the advantages of the high sensitivity of this design

  14. High sensitive radiation detector for radiology dosimetry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Valente, M.; Malano, F.; Molina, W.; Vedelago, J.

    2014-08-01

    Fricke solution has a wide range of applications as radiation detector and dosimetry. It is particularly appreciated in terms of relevant comparative advantages, like tissue equivalence when prepared in aqueous media like gel matrix, continuous mapping capability, dose rate recorded and incident direction independence as well as linear dose response. This work presents the development and characterization of a novel Fricke gel system, based on modified chemical compositions making possible its application in clinical radiology. Properties of standard Fricke gel dosimeter for high dose levels are used as starting point and suitable chemical modifications are introduced and carefully investigated in order to attain high resolution for low dose ranges, like those corresponding to radiology interventions. The developed Fricke gel radiation dosimeter system achieves the expected typical dose dependency, actually showing linear response in the dose range from 20 up to 4000 mGy. Systematic investigations including several chemical compositions are carried out in order to obtain a good enough dosimeter response for low dose levels. A suitable composition among those studied is selected as a good candidate for low dose level radiation dosimetry consisting on a modified Fricke solution fixed to a gel matrix containing benzoic acid along with sulfuric acid, ferrous sulfate, xylenol orange and ultra-pure reactive grade water. Dosimeter samples are prepared in standard vials for its in phantom irradiation and further characterization by spectrophotometry measuring visible light transmission and absorbance before and after irradiation. Samples are irradiated by typical kV X-ray tubes and calibrated Farmer type ionization chamber is used as reference to measure dose rates inside phantoms in at vials locations. Once sensitive material composition is already optimized, dose-response curves show significant improvement regarding overall sensitivity for low dose levels. According to

  15. Stochastic sensitivity analysis of nitrogen pollution to climate change in a river basin with complex pollution sources.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Xiaoying; Tan, Lit; He, Ruimin; Fu, Guangtao; Ye, Jinyin; Liu, Qun; Wang, Guoqing

    2017-12-01

    It is increasingly recognized that climate change could impose both direct and indirect impacts on the quality of the water environment. Previous studies have mostly concentrated on evaluating the impacts of climate change on non-point source pollution in agricultural watersheds. Few studies have assessed the impacts of climate change on the water quality of river basins with complex point and non-point pollution sources. In view of the gap, this paper aims to establish a framework for stochastic assessment of the sensitivity of water quality to future climate change in a river basin with complex pollution sources. A sub-daily soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model was developed to simulate the discharge, transport, and transformation of nitrogen from multiple point and non-point pollution sources in the upper Huai River basin of China. A weather generator was used to produce 50 years of synthetic daily weather data series for all 25 combinations of precipitation (changes by - 10, 0, 10, 20, and 30%) and temperature change (increases by 0, 1, 2, 3, and 4 °C) scenarios. The generated daily rainfall series was disaggregated into the hourly scale and then used to drive the sub-daily SWAT model to simulate the nitrogen cycle under different climate change scenarios. Our results in the study region have indicated that (1) both total nitrogen (TN) loads and concentrations are insensitive to temperature change; (2) TN loads are highly sensitive to precipitation change, while TN concentrations are moderately sensitive; (3) the impacts of climate change on TN concentrations are more spatiotemporally variable than its impacts on TN loads; and (4) wide distributions of TN loads and TN concentrations under individual climate change scenario illustrate the important role of climatic variability in affecting water quality conditions. In summary, the large variability in SWAT simulation results within and between each climate change scenario highlights the uncertainty of

  16. Climatically sensitive tree-ring chronologies from Crimea, Ukraine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solomina, O.; Davi, N.; D Arrigo, R.

    2003-04-01

    Several tree species in Crimea can reach ages of 1000 years or more (Crimea..., 1999), including Taxus baccata L., Arbutus andrachne L., Quercus pubescens Willd, Quercus petraea (Mattuschka) Liebl., Quercus robur L., Juniperus excelsa M.B., and Pistacia mutica Fisch.et Mey. In September 2002, we collected samples from several long-lived tree sites described in the literature (Vulf, 1948, Ivanenko, 1951, Ena, 1983, Podgorniy, 1990), located in the mountains of Central Crimea (Sokolinoye, Chufut-Kale, Chelter) and on the coast of the Black Sea (Ai-Todor, Kharaks, Ai-Petri). The trees sampled generally had 300-350 rings. At Ai-Todor, most oaks, junipers, and pistachio showed decay. However, enough samples of oak, juniper and pine were collected to build three chronologies with good replication over the last 350 years. Long meteorological records (for Sevastopol since 1821, Ai-Petri and Yalta since the 1880's) as well as detailed historical data on extreme climatic events since 1687 (summarized by Borisov 1956) are available for this area and can be used to calibrate and verify the tree growth/climate models. Resulting dendroclimatic reconstructions will be the first from this region. The tree-ring time-series may also be used for archaeological dating of historical wood from several medieval fortresses, towns and palaces. In turn, the archaeological wood could be used to extend the tree-ring time series. Stalactites and stalagmites (Dubliansky, 1977) found in numerous caves, as well as 4000-years old laminated lake sediments (Shostakovich, 1934) are also potentially important sources of paleoclimatic information in the area.

  17. Global patterns of NDVI-indicated vegetation extremes and their sensitivity to climate extremes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu Guo; Liu Hongyan; Yin Yi

    2013-01-01

    Extremes in climate have significant impacts on ecosystems and are expected to increase under future climate change. Extremes in vegetation could capture such impacts and indicate the vulnerability of ecosystems, but currently have not received a global long-term assessment. In this study, a robust method has been developed to detect significant extremes (low values) in biweekly time series of global normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) from 1982 to 2006 and thus to acquire a global pattern of vegetation extreme frequency. This pattern coincides with vegetation vulnerability patterns suggested by earlier studies using different methods over different time spans, indicating a consistent mechanism of regulation. Vegetation extremes were found to aggregate in Amazonia and in the semi-arid and semi-humid regions in low and middle latitudes, while they seldom occurred in high latitudes. Among the environmental variables studied, extreme low precipitation has the highest slope against extreme vegetation. For the eight biomes analyzed, these slopes are highest in temperate broadleaf forest and temperate grassland, suggesting a higher sensitivity in these environments. The results presented here contradict the hypothesis that vegetation in water-limited semi-arid and semi-humid regions might be adapted to drought and suggest that vegetation in these regions (especially temperate broadleaf forest and temperate grassland) is highly prone to vegetation extreme events under more severe precipitation extremes. It is also suggested here that more attention be paid to precipitation-induced vegetation changes than to temperature-induced events. (letter)

  18. High sensitivity thermal sensors on insulating diamond

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Job, R. [Fernuniversitaet Hagen (Gesamthochschule) (Germany). Electron. Devices; Denisenko, A.V. [Fernuniversitaet Hagen (Gesamthochschule) (Germany). Electron. Devices; Zaitsev, A.M. [Fernuniversitaet Hagen (Gesamthochschule) (Germany). Electron. Devices; Melnikov, A.A. [Belarussian State Univ., Minsk (Belarus). HEII and FD; Werner, M. [VDI/VDE-IT, Teltow (Germany); Fahrner, W.R. [Fernuniversitaet Hagen (Gesamthochschule) (Germany). Electron. Devices

    1996-12-15

    Diamond is a promising material to develop sensors for applications in harsh environments. To increase the sensitivity of diamond temperature sensors the effect of thermionic hole emission (TE) over an energetic barrier formed in the interface between highly boron-doped p-type and intrinsic insulating diamond areas has been suggested. To study the TE of holes a p-i-p diode has been fabricated and analyzed by electrical measurements in the temperature range between 300 K and 700 K. The experimental results have been compared with numerical simulations of its electrical characteristics. Based on a model of the thermionic emission of carriers into an insulator it has been suggested that the temperature sensitivity of the p-i-p diode on diamond is strongly affected by the re-emission of holes from a group of donor-like traps located at a level of 0.7-1.0 eV above the valence band. The mechanism of thermal activation of the current includes a spatial redistribution of the potential, which results in the TE regime from a decrease of the immobilized charge of the ionized traps within the i-zone of the diode and the correspondent lowering of the forward biased barrier. The characteristics of the p-i-p diode were studied with regard to temperature sensor applications. The temperature coefficient of resistance (TCR=-0.05 K{sup -1}) for temperatures above 600 K is about four times larger than the maximal attainable TCR for conventional boron-doped diamond resistors. (orig.)

  19. Sensitivity of Distributions of Climate System Properties to Surface Temperature Datasets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Libardoni, A. G.; Forest, C. E.

    2011-12-01

    Predictions of climate change from models depend strongly on the representation of climate system properties emerging from the processes and feedbacks in the models. The quality of any model prediction can be evaluated by determining how well its output reproduces the observed climate system. With this evaluation, the reliability of climate projections derived from the model and provided for policy makers is assessed and quantified. In this study, surface temperature, upper-air temperature, and ocean heat content data are used to constrain the distributions of the parameters that define three climate system properties in the MIT Integrated Global Systems Model: climate sensitivity, the rate of ocean heat uptake into the deep ocean, and net anthropogenic aerosol forcing. In particular, we explore the sensitivity of the distributions to the surface temperature dataset used to estimate the likelihood of model output given the observed climate records. In total, five different reconstructions of past surface temperatures are used and the resulting parameter distribution functions differ from each other. Differences in estimates of climate sensitivity mode and mean are as great as 1 K between the datasets, with an overall range of 1.2 to 5.3 K using the 5-95 confidence intervals. Ocean effective diffusivity is poorly constrained regardless of which dataset is used. All distributions show broad distributions and only three show signs of a distribution mode. When a mode is present, they tend to be for low diffusivity values. Distributions for the net aerosol forcing show similar shapes and cluster into two groups that are shifted by approximately 0.1 watts per square meter. However, the overall spread of forcing values from the 5-95 confidence interval, -0.19 to -0.83 watts per square meter, is small compared to other uncertainties in climate forcings. Transient climate response estimates derived from these distributions range between 0.87 and 2.41 K. Similar to the

  20. Transportable high sensitivity small sample radiometric calorimeter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wetzel, J.R.; Biddle, R.S.; Cordova, B.S.; Sampson, T.E.; Dye, H.R.; McDow, J.G.

    1998-01-01

    A new small-sample, high-sensitivity transportable radiometric calorimeter, which can be operated in different modes, contains an electrical calibration method, and can be used to develop secondary standards, will be described in this presentation. The data taken from preliminary tests will be presented to indicate the precision and accuracy of the instrument. The calorimeter and temperature-controlled bath, at present, require only a 30-in. by 20-in. tabletop area. The calorimeter is operated from a laptop computer system using unique measurement module capable of monitoring all necessary calorimeter signals. The calorimeter can be operated in the normal calorimeter equilibration mode, as a comparison instrument, using twin chambers and an external electrical calibration method. The sample chamber is 0.75 in (1.9 cm) in diameter by 2.5 in. (6.35 cm) long. This size will accommodate most 238 Pu heat standards manufactured in the past. The power range runs from 0.001 W to <20 W. The high end is only limited by sample size

  1. Natural Ocean Carbon Cycle Sensitivity to Parameterizations of the Recycling in a Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romanou, A.; Romanski, J.; Gregg, W. W.

    2014-01-01

    Sensitivities of the oceanic biological pump within the GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies ) climate modeling system are explored here. Results are presented from twin control simulations of the air-sea CO2 gas exchange using two different ocean models coupled to the same atmosphere. The two ocean models (Russell ocean model and Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model, HYCOM) use different vertical coordinate systems, and therefore different representations of column physics. Both variants of the GISS climate model are coupled to the same ocean biogeochemistry module (the NASA Ocean Biogeochemistry Model, NOBM), which computes prognostic distributions for biotic and abiotic fields that influence the air-sea flux of CO2 and the deep ocean carbon transport and storage. In particular, the model differences due to remineralization rate changes are compared to differences attributed to physical processes modeled differently in the two ocean models such as ventilation, mixing, eddy stirring and vertical advection. GISSEH(GISSER) is found to underestimate mixed layer depth compared to observations by about 55% (10 %) in the Southern Ocean and overestimate it by about 17% (underestimate by 2%) in the northern high latitudes. Everywhere else in the global ocean, the two models underestimate the surface mixing by about 12-34 %, which prevents deep nutrients from reaching the surface and promoting primary production there. Consequently, carbon export is reduced because of reduced production at the surface. Furthermore, carbon export is particularly sensitive to remineralization rate changes in the frontal regions of the subtropical gyres and at the Equator and this sensitivity in the model is much higher than the sensitivity to physical processes such as vertical mixing, vertical advection and mesoscale eddy transport. At depth, GISSER, which has a significant warm bias, remineralizes nutrients and carbon faster thereby producing more nutrients and carbon at depth, which

  2. Climate Change Sensitivity of Multi-Species Afforestation in Semi-Arid Benin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florent Noulèkoun

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available The early growth stage is critical in the response of trees to climate change and variability. It is not clear, however, what climate metrics are best to define the early-growth sensitivity in assessing adaptation strategies of young forests to climate change. Using a combination of field experiments and modelling, we assessed the climate sensitivity of two promising afforestation species, Jatropha curcas L. and Moringa oleifera Lam., by analyzing their predicted climate–growth relationships in the initial two years after planting on degraded cropland in the semi-arid zone of Benin. The process-based WaNuLCAS model (version 4.3, World Agroforestry Centre, Bogor, Indonesia was used to simulate aboveground biomass growth for each year in the climate record (1981–2016, either as the first or as the second year of tree growth. Linear mixed models related the annual biomass growth to climate indicators, and climate sensitivity indices quantified climate–growth relationships. In the first year, the length of dry spells had the strongest effect on tree growth. In the following year, the annual water deficit and length of dry season became the strongest predictors. Simulated rooting depths greater than those observed in the experiments enhanced biomass growth under extreme dry conditions and reduced sapling sensitivity to drought. Projected increases in aridity implied significant growth reduction, but a multi-species approach to afforestation using species that are able to develop deep-penetrating roots should increase the resilience of young forests to climate change. The results illustrate that process-based modelling, combined with field experiments, can be effective in assessing the climate–growth relationships of tree species.

  3. Sensitivity of groundwater recharge using climatic analogues and HYDRUS-1D

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Leterme

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available The sensitivity of groundwater recharge to different climate conditions was simulated using the approach of climatic analogue stations, i.e. stations presently experiencing climatic conditions corresponding to a possible future climate state. The study was conducted in the context of a safety assessment of a future near-surface disposal facility for low and intermediate level short-lived radioactive waste in Belgium; this includes estimation of groundwater recharge for the next millennia. Groundwater recharge was simulated using the Richards based soil water balance model HYDRUS-1D and meteorological time series from analogue stations. This study used four analogue stations for a warmer subtropical climate with changes of average annual precipitation and potential evapotranspiration from −42% to +5% and from +8% to +82%, respectively, compared to the present-day climate. Resulting water balance calculations yielded a change in groundwater recharge ranging from a decrease of 72% to an increase of 3% for the four different analogue stations. The Gijon analogue station (Northern Spain, considered as the most representative for the near future climate state in the study area, shows an increase of 3% of groundwater recharge for a 5% increase of annual precipitation. Calculations for a colder (tundra climate showed a change in groundwater recharge ranging from a decrease of 97% to an increase of 32% for four different analogue stations, with an annual precipitation change from −69% to −14% compared to the present-day climate.

  4. Projected Crop Production under Regional Climate Change Using Scenario Data and Modeling: Sensitivity to Chosen Sowing Date and Cultivar

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sulin Tao

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available A sensitivity analysis of the responses of crops to the chosen production adaptation options under regional climate change was conducted in this study. Projections of winter wheat production for different sowing dates and cultivars were estimated for a major economic and agricultural province of China from 2021 to 2080 using the World Food Study model (WOFOST under representative concentration pathways (RCPs scenarios. A modeling chain was established and a correction method was proposed to reduce the bias of the resulting model-simulated climate data. The results indicated that adjusting the sowing dates and cultivars could mitigate the influences of climate change on winter wheat production in Jinagsu. The yield gains were projected from the chosen sowing date and cultivar. The following actions are recommended to ensure high and stable yields under future climate changes: (i advance the latest sowing date in some areas of northern Jiangsu; and (ii use heat-tolerant or heat-tolerant and drought-resistant varieties in most areas of Jiangsu rather than the currently used cultivar. Fewer of the common negative effects of using a single climate model occurred when using the sensitivity analysis because our bias correction method was effective for scenario data and because the WOFOST performed well for Jiangsu after calibration.

  5. Sensitivity of Climate Change Detection and Attribution to the Characterization of Internal Climate Variability

    KAUST Repository

    Imbers, Jara

    2014-05-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change\\'s (IPCC) "very likely" statement that anthropogenic emissions are affecting climate is based on a statistical detection and attribution methodology that strongly depends on the characterization of internal climate variability. In this paper, the authors test the robustness of this statement in the case of global mean surface air temperature, under different representations of such variability. The contributions of the different natural and anthropogenic forcings to the global mean surface air temperature response are computed using a box diffusion model. Representations of internal climate variability are explored using simple stochastic models that nevertheless span a representative range of plausible temporal autocorrelation structures, including the short-memory first-order autoregressive [AR(1)] process and the long-memory fractionally differencing process. The authors find that, independently of the representation chosen, the greenhouse gas signal remains statistically significant under the detection model employed in this paper. The results support the robustness of the IPCC detection and attribution statement for global mean temperature change under different characterizations of internal variability, but they also suggest that a wider variety of robustness tests, other than simple comparisons of residual variance, should be performed when dealing with other climate variables and/or different spatial scales. © 2014 American Meteorological Society.

  6. Sensitivity of Climate Change Detection and Attribution to the Characterization of Internal Climate Variability

    KAUST Repository

    Imbers, Jara; Lopez, Ana; Huntingford, Chris; Allen, Myles

    2014-01-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) "very likely" statement that anthropogenic emissions are affecting climate is based on a statistical detection and attribution methodology that strongly depends on the characterization of internal climate variability. In this paper, the authors test the robustness of this statement in the case of global mean surface air temperature, under different representations of such variability. The contributions of the different natural and anthropogenic forcings to the global mean surface air temperature response are computed using a box diffusion model. Representations of internal climate variability are explored using simple stochastic models that nevertheless span a representative range of plausible temporal autocorrelation structures, including the short-memory first-order autoregressive [AR(1)] process and the long-memory fractionally differencing process. The authors find that, independently of the representation chosen, the greenhouse gas signal remains statistically significant under the detection model employed in this paper. The results support the robustness of the IPCC detection and attribution statement for global mean temperature change under different characterizations of internal variability, but they also suggest that a wider variety of robustness tests, other than simple comparisons of residual variance, should be performed when dealing with other climate variables and/or different spatial scales. © 2014 American Meteorological Society.

  7. Sensitivity of simulated maize crop yields to regional climate in the Southwestern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, S.; Myoung, B.; Stack, D.; Kim, J.; Hatzopoulos, N.; Kafatos, M.

    2013-12-01

    The sensitivity of maize yield to the regional climate in the Southwestern United States (SW US) has been investigated by using a crop-yield simulation model (APSIM) in conjunction with meteorological forcings (daily minimum and maximum temperature, precipitation, and radiation) from the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) dataset. The primary focus of this study is to look at the effects of interannual variations of atmospheric components on the crop productivity in the SW US over the 21-year period (1991 to 2011). First of all, characteristics and performance of APSIM was examined by comparing simulated maize yields with observed yields from United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the leaf-area index (LAI) from MODIS satellite data. Comparisons of the simulated maize yield with the available observations show that the crop model can reasonably reproduce observed maize yields. Sensitivity tests were performed to assess the relative contribution of each climate driver to regional crop yield. Sensitivity experiments show that potential crop production responds nonlinearly to climate drivers and the yield sensitivity varied among geographical locations depending on their mean climates. Lastly, a detailed analysis of both the spatial and temporal variations of each climate driver in the regions where maize is actually grown in three states (CA, AZ, and NV) in the SW US was performed.

  8. The climate impact of energy peat utilisation - comparison and sensitivity analysis of Finnish and Swedish results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Holmgren, Kristina; Kirkinen, Johanna; Savolainen, Ilkka

    2006-06-15

    The climate impact of energy peat utilisation have been studied both in Finland by VTT Technical Research Centre and in Sweden by IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute Ltd. The main objective of this study is to compare the results of earlier studies by VTT and IVL and to perform a sensitivity analysis of previous and new results. The scientific approach of the two studies is very similar. The climate impact of peat utilisation is considered from a life-cycle point of view by taking into account all phases of the peat utilisation chain. Peat reserves can be both sinks and sources of greenhouse gas emissions as well as there are both uptake and emissions of greenhouse gases during the utilisation chain. The net impact of the utilisation chain is assessed as the climate impact due to the utilisation chain minus the climate impact of non-utilisation chain. The instantaneous radiative forcing and accumulated radiative forcing are used in both studies as the indicator of the climate impact. Radiative forcing is calculated on the basis of the concentration changes due to emissions and uptake of greenhouse gases. The differences in the models for calculating concentrations and radiative forcing are minor. There are some differences in the definitions and boundaries of the considered peat utilisation chains, although the differences in the results due to differences in the chain definitions are small. The main reason for the differences in results between the two studies is differences in emission (and uptake) estimates for the after-treatment phase and the non-utilisation chain. Both Swedish and Finnish studies show that the use of cultivated peatland for energy peat utilisation results in lower climate impact than using coal (within 100 years). Both studies show that the use of pristine mires for peat production will result in larger climate impact than the use of already drained peatlands. The climate impact of peat utilisation chains where fens and forestry

  9. The climate impact of energy peat utilisation - comparison and sensitivity analysis of Finnish and Swedish results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holmgren, Kristina; Kirkinen, Johanna; Savolainen, Ilkka

    2006-06-01

    The climate impact of energy peat utilisation have been studied both in Finland by VTT Technical Research Centre and in Sweden by IVL Swedish Environmental Research Institute Ltd. The main objective of this study is to compare the results of earlier studies by VTT and IVL and to perform a sensitivity analysis of previous and new results. The scientific approach of the two studies is very similar. The climate impact of peat utilisation is considered from a life-cycle point of view by taking into account all phases of the peat utilisation chain. Peat reserves can be both sinks and sources of greenhouse gas emissions as well as there are both uptake and emissions of greenhouse gases during the utilisation chain. The net impact of the utilisation chain is assessed as the climate impact due to the utilisation chain minus the climate impact of non-utilisation chain. The instantaneous radiative forcing and accumulated radiative forcing are used in both studies as the indicator of the climate impact. Radiative forcing is calculated on the basis of the concentration changes due to emissions and uptake of greenhouse gases. The differences in the models for calculating concentrations and radiative forcing are minor. There are some differences in the definitions and boundaries of the considered peat utilisation chains, although the differences in the results due to differences in the chain definitions are small. The main reason for the differences in results between the two studies is differences in emission (and uptake) estimates for the after-treatment phase and the non-utilisation chain. Both Swedish and Finnish studies show that the use of cultivated peatland for energy peat utilisation results in lower climate impact than using coal (within 100 years). Both studies show that the use of pristine mires for peat production will result in larger climate impact than the use of already drained peatlands. The climate impact of peat utilisation chains where fens and forestry

  10. Novel Methods to Explore Building Energy Sensitivity to Climate and Heat Waves Using PNNL's BEND Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burleyson, C. D.; Voisin, N.; Taylor, T.; Xie, Y.; Kraucunas, I.

    2017-12-01

    The DOE's Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) has been developing the Building ENergy Demand (BEND) model to simulate energy usage in residential and commercial buildings responding to changes in weather, climate, population, and building technologies. At its core, BEND is a mechanism to aggregate EnergyPlus simulations of a large number of individual buildings with a diversity of characteristics over large spatial scales. We have completed a series of experiments to explore methods to calibrate the BEND model, measure its ability to capture interannual variability in energy demand due to weather using simulations of two distinct weather years, and understand the sensitivity to the number and location of weather stations used to force the model. The use of weather from "representative cities" reduces computational costs, but often fails to capture spatial heterogeneity that may be important for simulations aimed at understanding how building stocks respond to a changing climate (Fig. 1). We quantify the potential reduction in temperature and load biases from using an increasing number of weather stations across the western U.S., ranging from 8 to roughly 150. Using 8 stations results in an average absolute summertime temperature bias of 4.0°C. The mean absolute bias drops to 1.5°C using all available stations. Temperature biases of this magnitude translate to absolute summertime mean simulated load biases as high as 13.8%. Additionally, using only 8 representative weather stations can lead to a 20-40% bias of peak building loads under heat wave or cold snap conditions, a significant error for capacity expansion planners who may rely on these types of simulations. This analysis suggests that using 4 stations per climate zone may be sufficient for most purposes. Our novel approach, which requires no new EnergyPlus simulations, could be useful to other researchers designing or calibrating aggregate building model simulations - particularly those looking at

  11. Assessing the sensitivity of avian species abundance to land cover and climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    LeBrun, Jaymi J.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Thompson, Frank R.; Dijak, William D.; Millspaugh, Joshua J.

    2016-01-01

    Climate projections for the Midwestern United States predict southerly climates to shift northward. These shifts in climate could alter distributions of species across North America through changes in climate (i.e., temperature and precipitation), or through climate-induced changes on land cover. Our objective was to determine the relative impacts of land cover and climate on the abundance of five bird species in the Central United States that have habitat requirements ranging from grassland and shrubland to forest. We substituted space for time to examine potential impacts of a changing climate by assessing climate and land cover relationships over a broad latitudinal gradient. We found positive and negative relationships of climate and land cover factors with avian abundances. Habitat variables drove patterns of abundance in migratory and resident species, although climate was also influential in predicting abundance for some species occupying more open habitat (i.e., prairie warbler, blue-winged warbler, and northern bobwhite). Abundance of northern bobwhite increased with winter temperature and was the species exhibiting the most significant effect of climate. Models for birds primarily occupying early successional habitats performed better with a combination of habitat and climate variables whereas models of species found in contiguous forest performed best with land cover alone. These varied species-specific responses present unique challenges to land managers trying to balance species conservation over a variety of land covers. Management activities focused on increasing forest cover may play a role in mitigating effects of future climate by providing habitat refugia to species vulnerable to projected changes. Conservation efforts would be best served focusing on areas with high species abundances and an array of habitats. Future work managing forests for resilience and resistance to climate change could benefit species already susceptible to climate impacts.

  12. Estimations of climate sensitivity based on top-of-atmosphere radiation imbalance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Lin

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available Large climate feedback uncertainties limit the accuracy in predicting the response of the Earth's climate to the increase of CO2 concentration within the atmosphere. This study explores a potential to reduce uncertainties in climate sensitivity estimations using energy balance analysis, especially top-of-atmosphere (TOA radiation imbalance. The time-scales studied generally cover from decade to century, that is, middle-range climate sensitivity is considered, which is directly related to the climate issue caused by atmospheric CO2 change. The significant difference between current analysis and previous energy balance models is that the current study targets at the boundary condition problem instead of solving the initial condition problem. Additionally, climate system memory and deep ocean heat transport are considered. The climate feedbacks are obtained based on the constraints of the TOA radiation imbalance and surface temperature measurements of the present climate. In this study, the TOA imbalance value of 0.85 W/m2 is used. Note that this imbalance value has large uncertainties. Based on this value, a positive climate feedback with a feedback coefficient ranging from −1.3 to −1.0 W/m2/K is found. The range of feedback coefficient is determined by climate system memory. The longer the memory, the stronger the positive feedback. The estimated time constant of the climate is large (70~120 years mainly owing to the deep ocean heat transport, implying that the system may be not in an equilibrium state under the external forcing during the industrial era. For the doubled-CO2 climate (or 3.7 W/m2 forcing, the estimated global warming would be 3.1 K if the current estimate of 0.85 W/m2 TOA net radiative heating could be confirmed. With accurate long-term measurements of TOA radiation, the analysis method suggested by this study provides a great potential in the

  13. Highly sensitive detection of a current ripple

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aoki, Takashi; Gushiken, Tutomu; Nishikigouri, Kazutaka; Kumada, Masayuki.

    1996-01-01

    In the HIMAC, there are six thyristor-controlled power sources for driving two synchrotrons. These power sources are the three-output terminal power sources which are equipped with positive output, negative output and neutral point for the common mode countermeasures. As electromagnet circuits are connected to the three-output terminal power sources, those are three-line type. In the inside of the power source circuits controlled by thyristors, there is the oscillation peculiar to the power sources, and the variation of voltage induces current spikes. This time, in order to assess the results of the common mode countermeasures in the power source and electromagnet circuits, as one method of cross-check, it is considered that since electromagnet current flows being divided to the bridging resistance and the coil, if attention is paid to the current on bridging resistance side, the ripple components of common mode and normal mode can be detected with high sensitivity, and this was verified. The present state of heightening the performance of synchrotron power sources is explained. The cross-check of the method of assessing the performance of electromagnet power sources is reported. The method of measuring ripple current and the results of the measurement are reported. (K.I.)

  14. Development of high sensitivity radon detectors

    CERN Document Server

    Takeuchi, Y; Kajita, T; Tasaka, S; Hori, H; Nemoto, M; Okazawa, H

    1999-01-01

    High sensitivity detectors for radon in air and in water have been developed. We use electrostatic collection and a PIN photodiode for these detectors. Calibration systems have been also constructed to obtain collection factors. As a result of the calibration study, the absolute humidity dependence of the radon detector for air is clearly observed in the region less than about 1.6 g/m sup 3. The calibration factors of the radon detector for air are 2.2+-0.2 (counts/day)/(mBq/m sup 3) at 0.08 g/m sup 3 and 0.86+-0.06 (counts/day)/(mBq/m sup 3) at 11 g/m sup 3. The calibration factor of the radon detector for water is 3.6+-0.5 (counts/day)/(mBq/m sup 3). The background level of the radon detector for air is 2.4+-1.3 counts/day. As a result, one standard deviation excess of the signal above the background of the radon detector for air should be possible for 1.4 mBq/m sup 3 in a one-day measurement at 0.08 g/m sup 3.

  15. Objectively combining AR5 instrumental period and paleoclimate climate sensitivity evidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, Nicholas; Grünwald, Peter

    2018-03-01

    Combining instrumental period evidence regarding equilibrium climate sensitivity with largely independent paleoclimate proxy evidence should enable a more constrained sensitivity estimate to be obtained. Previous, subjective Bayesian approaches involved selection of a prior probability distribution reflecting the investigators' beliefs about climate sensitivity. Here a recently developed approach employing two different statistical methods—objective Bayesian and frequentist likelihood-ratio—is used to combine instrumental period and paleoclimate evidence based on data presented and assessments made in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. Probabilistic estimates from each source of evidence are represented by posterior probability density functions (PDFs) of physically-appropriate form that can be uniquely factored into a likelihood function and a noninformative prior distribution. The three-parameter form is shown accurately to fit a wide range of estimated climate sensitivity PDFs. The likelihood functions relating to the probabilistic estimates from the two sources are multiplicatively combined and a prior is derived that is noninformative for inference from the combined evidence. A posterior PDF that incorporates the evidence from both sources is produced using a single-step approach, which avoids the order-dependency that would arise if Bayesian updating were used. Results are compared with an alternative approach using the frequentist signed root likelihood ratio method. Results from these two methods are effectively identical, and provide a 5-95% range for climate sensitivity of 1.1-4.05 K (median 1.87 K).

  16. PATMOS-x Cloud Climate Record Trend Sensitivity to Reanalysis Products

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael J. Foster

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Continuous satellite-derived cloud records now extend over three decades, and are increasingly used for climate applications. Certain applications, such as trend detection, require a clear understanding of uncertainty as it relates to establishing statistical significance. The use of reanalysis products as sources of ancillary data could be construed as one such source of uncertainty, as there has been discussion regarding the suitability of reanalysis products for trend detection. Here we use three reanalysis products: Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR, Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA and European Center for Medium range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF ERA-Interim (ERA-I as sources of ancillary data for the Pathfinder Atmospheres Extended/Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (PATMOS-x/AVHRR Satellite Cloud Climate Data Record (CDR, and perform inter-comparisons to determine how sensitive the climatology is to choice of ancillary data source. We find differences among reanalysis fields required for PATMOS-x processing, which translate to small but not insignificant differences in retrievals of cloud fraction, cloud top height and cloud optical depth. The retrieval variability due to choice of reanalysis product is on the order of one third the size of the retrieval uncertainty, making it a potentially significant factor in trend detection. Cloud fraction trends were impacted the most by choice of reanalysis while cloud optical depth trends were impacted the least. Metrics used to determine the skill of the reanalysis products for use as ancillary data found no clear best choice for use in PATMOS-x. We conclude use of reanalysis products as ancillary data in the PATMOS-x/AVHRR Cloud CDR do not preclude its use for trend detection, but for that application uncertainty in reanalysis fields should be better represented in the PATMOS-x retrieval uncertainty.

  17. Characterizing the Sensitivity of Groundwater Storage to Climate variation in the Indus Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, L.; Sabo, J. L.

    2017-12-01

    Indus Basin represents an extensive groundwater aquifer facing the challenge of effective management of limited water resources. Groundwater storage is one of the most important variables of water balance, yet its sensitivity to climate change has rarely been explored. To better estimate present and future groundwater storage and its sensitivity to climate change in the Indus Basin, we analyzed groundwater recharge/discharge and their historical evolution in this basin. Several methods are applied to specify the aquifer system including: water level change and storativity estimates, gravity estimates (GRACE), flow model (MODFLOW), water budget analysis and extrapolation. In addition, all of the socioeconomic and engineering aspects are represented in the hydrological system through the change of temporal and spatial distributions of recharge and discharge (e.g., land use, crop structure, water allocation, etc.). Our results demonstrate that the direct impacts of climate change will result in unevenly distributed but increasing groundwater storage in the short term through groundwater recharge. In contrast, long term groundwater storage will decrease as a result of combined indirect and direct impacts of climate change (e.g. recharge/discharge and human activities). The sensitivity of groundwater storage to climate variation is characterized by topography, aquifer specifics and land use. Furthermore, by comparing possible outcomes of different human interventions scenarios, our study reveals human activities play an important role in affecting the sensitivity of groundwater storage to climate variation. Over all, this study presents the feasibility and value of using integrated hydrological methods to support sustainable water resource management under climate change.

  18. Sensitivity of health sector indicators' response to climate change in Ghana.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dovie, Delali B K; Dzodzomenyo, Mawuli; Ogunseitan, Oladele A

    2017-01-01

    There is accumulating evidence that the emerging burden of global climate change threatens the fidelity of routine indicators for disease detection and management of risks to public health. The threat partially reflects the conservative character of the health sector and the reluctance to adopt new indicators, despite the growing awareness that existing environmental health indicators were developed to respond to risks that may no longer be relevant, and are too simplistic to also act as indicators for newer global-scale risk factors. This study sought to understand the scope of existing health indicators, while aiming to discover new indicators for building resilience against three climate sensitive diseases (cerebro spinal meningitis, malaria and diarrhea). Therefore, new potential indicators derived from human and biophysical origins were developed to complement existing health indicators, thereby creating climate-sensitive battery of robust composite indices of resilience in health planning. Using Ghana's health sector as a case study systematic international literature review, national expert consultation, and focus group outcomes yielded insights into the relevance, sensitivity and impacts of 45 indicators in 11 categories in responding to climate change. In total, 65% of the indicators were sensitive to health impacts of climate change; 24% acted directly; 31% synergistically; and 45% indirectly, with indicator relevance strongly associated with type of health response. Epidemiological indicators (e.g. morbidity) and health demographic indicators (e.g. population structure) require adjustments with external indicators (e.g. biophysical, policy) to be resilient to climate change. Therefore, selective integration of social and ecological indicators with existing public health indicators improves the fidelity of the health sector to adopt more robust planning of interdependent systems to build resilience. The study highlights growing uncertainties in

  19. Lifelines for High School Climate Change Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gould, A. D.

    2012-12-01

    The Lifelines project aims to establish a network of practicing high school teachers actively using climate change curricula by creating professional learning communities (PLCs) of teachers who, through remote meetings and workshops, maintain ongoing communication and sharing of best practices among colleagues to strengthen knowledge and promote effective teaching strategies. The project explores techniques to achieve the most effective teleconferencing meetings and workshops. This promotes not only teaching about minimizing environmental impacts of human activity, but minimizes environmental impacts of professional development — practicing what we preach. To date, Lifelines PLCs have set up websites and e-mail lists for sharing information. Teleconferences and webinars have been held using services such as Skype, ReadyTalk, and Wiggio. Many of the meetings have been recorded and archived for the benefit of members who could not attend in real-time.

  20. Can climate sensitivity be estimated from short-term relationships of top-of-atmosphere net radiation and surface temperature?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lin Bing; Min Qilong; Sun Wenbo; Hu Yongxiang; Fan, Tai-Fang

    2011-01-01

    Increasing the knowledge in climate radiative feedbacks is critical for current climate studies. This work focuses on short-term relationships between global mean surface temperature and top-of-atmosphere (TOA) net radiation. The relationships may be used to characterize the climate feedback as suggested by some recent studies. As those recent studies, an energy balance model with ocean mixed layer and both radiative and non-radiative heat sources is used here. The significant improvement of current model is that climate system memories are considered. Based on model simulations, short-term relationship between global mean surface temperature and TOA net radiation (or the linear striation feature as suggested by previous studies) might represent climate feedbacks when the system had no memories. However, climate systems with the same short-term feedbacks but different memories would have a similar linear striation feature. This linear striation feature reflects only fast components of climate feedbacks and may not represent the total climate feedback even when the memory length of climate systems is minimal. The potential errors in the use of short-term relationships in estimations of climate sensitivity could be big. In short time scales, fast climate processes may overwhelm long-term climate feedbacks. Thus, the climate radiative feedback parameter obtained from short-term data may not provide a reliable estimate of climate sensitivity. This result also suggests that long-term observations of global surface temperature and TOA radiation are critical in the understanding of climate feedbacks and sensitivities.

  1. Analysis of Sea Ice Cover Sensitivity in Global Climate Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. P. Parhomenko

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents joint calculations using a 3D atmospheric general circulation model, an ocean model, and a sea ice evolution model. The purpose of the work is to analyze a seasonal and annual evolution of sea ice, long-term variability of a model ice cover, and its sensitivity to some parameters of model as well to define atmosphere-ice-ocean interaction.Results of 100 years simulations of Arctic basin sea ice evolution are analyzed. There are significant (about 0.5 m inter-annual fluctuations of an ice cover.The ice - atmosphere sensible heat flux reduced by 10% leads to the growth of average sea ice thickness within the limits of 0.05 m – 0.1 m. However in separate spatial points the thickness decreases up to 0.5 m. An analysis of the seasonably changing average ice thickness with decreasing, as compared to the basic variant by 0.05 of clear sea ice albedo and that of snow shows the ice thickness reduction in a range from 0.2 m up to 0.6 m, and the change maximum falls for the summer season of intensive melting. The spatial distribution of ice thickness changes shows, that on the large part of the Arctic Ocean there was a reduction of ice thickness down to 1 m. However, there is also an area of some increase of the ice layer basically in a range up to 0.2 m (Beaufort Sea. The 0.05 decrease of sea ice snow albedo leads to reduction of average ice thickness approximately by 0.2 m, and this value slightly depends on a season. In the following experiment the ocean – ice thermal interaction influence on the ice cover is estimated. It is carried out by increase of a heat flux from ocean to the bottom surface of sea ice by 2 W/sq. m in comparison with base variant. The analysis demonstrates, that the average ice thickness reduces in a range from 0.2 m to 0.35 m. There are small seasonal changes of this value.The numerical experiments results have shown, that an ice cover and its seasonal evolution rather strongly depend on varied parameters

  2. Disentangling Greenhouse Warming and Aerosol Cooling to Reveal Earth's Transient Climate Sensitivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Storelvmo, T.

    2015-12-01

    Earth's climate sensitivity has been the subject of heated debate for decades, and recently spurred renewed interest after the latest IPCC assessment report suggested a downward adjustment of the most likely range of climate sensitivities. Here, we present an observation-based study based on the time period 1964 to 2010, which is unique in that it does not rely on global climate models (GCMs) in any way. The study uses surface observations of temperature and incoming solar radiation from approximately 1300 surface sites, along with observations of the equivalent CO2 concentration (CO2,eq) in the atmosphere, to produce a new best estimate for the transient climate sensitivity of 1.9K (95% confidence interval 1.2K - 2.7K). This is higher than other recent observation-based estimates, and is better aligned with the estimate of 1.8K and range (1.1K - 2.5K) derived from the latest generation of GCMs. The new estimate is produced by incorporating the observations in an energy balance framework, and by applying statistical methods that are standard in the field of Econometrics, but less common in climate studies. The study further suggests that about a third of the continental warming due to increasing CO2,eq was masked by aerosol cooling during the time period studied.

  3. Disentangling Aerosol Cooling and Greenhouse Warming to Reveal Earth's Climate Sensitivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Storelvmo, Trude; Leirvik, Thomas; Phillips, Petter; Lohmann, Ulrike; Wild, Martin

    2015-04-01

    Earth's climate sensitivity has been the subject of heated debate for decades, and recently spurred renewed interest after the latest IPCC assessment report suggested a downward adjustment of the most likely range of climate sensitivities. Here, we present a study based on the time period 1964 to 2010, which is unique in that it does not rely on global climate models (GCMs) in any way. The study uses surface observations of temperature and incoming solar radiation from approximately 1300 surface sites, along with observations of the equivalent CO2 concentration (CO2,eq) in the atmosphere, to produce a new best estimate for the transient climate sensitivity of 1.9K (95% confidence interval 1.2K - 2.7K). This is higher than other recent observation-based estimates, and is better aligned with the estimate of 1.8K and range (1.1K - 2.5K) derived from the latest generation of GCMs. The new estimate is produced by incorporating the observations in an energy balance framework, and by applying statistical methods that are standard in the field of Econometrics, but less common in climate studies. The study further suggests that about a third of the continental warming due to increasing CO2,eq was masked by aerosol cooling during the time period studied.

  4. Sensitivity of very small glaciers in the Swiss Alps to future climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthias eHuss

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Very small glaciers (<0.5 km2 account for more than 80% of the total number of glaciers in mid- to low-latitude mountain ranges. Although their total area and volume is small compared to larger glaciers, they are a relevant component of the cryosphere, contributing to landscape formation, local hydrology and sea-level rise. Worldwide glacier monitoring mostly focuses on medium-sized to large glaciers leaving us with a limited understanding of the response of dwarf glaciers to climate change. In this study, we present a comprehensive modeling framework to assess past and future changes of very small glaciers at the mountain-range scale. Among other processes our model accounts for snow redistribution, changes in glacier geometry and the time-varying effect of supraglacial debris. It computes the mass balance distribution, the englacial temperature regime and proglacial runoff. The evolution of 1,133 individual glaciers in the Swiss Alps is modeled in detail until 2060 based on new distributed data sets. Our results indicate that 52% of all very small glaciers in Switzerland will completely disappear within the next 25 years. However, a few avalanche-fed glaciers at low elevation might be able to survive even substantial atmospheric warming. We find highly variable sensitivities of very small glaciers to air temperature change, with gently-sloping, low-elevation, and debris-covered glaciers being most sensitive.

  5. Diagnosis and Quantification of Climatic Sensitivity of Carbon Fluxes in Ensemble Global Ecosystem Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, W.; Hashimoto, H.; Milesi, C.; Nemani, R. R.; Myneni, R.

    2011-12-01

    Terrestrial ecosystem models are primary scientific tools to extrapolate our understanding of ecosystem functioning from point observations to global scales as well as from the past climatic conditions into the future. However, no model is nearly perfect and there are often considerable structural uncertainties existing between different models. Ensemble model experiments thus become a mainstream approach in evaluating the current status of global carbon cycle and predicting its future changes. A key task in such applications is to quantify the sensitivity of the simulated carbon fluxes to climate variations and changes. Here we develop a systematic framework to address this question solely by analyzing the inputs and the outputs from the models. The principle of our approach is to assume the long-term (~30 years) average of the inputs/outputs as a quasi-equlibrium of the climate-vegetation system while treat the anomalies of carbon fluxes as responses to climatic disturbances. In this way, the corresponding relationships can be largely linearized and analyzed using conventional time-series techniques. This method is used to characterize three major aspects of the vegetation models that are mostly important to global carbon cycle, namely the primary production, the biomass dynamics, and the ecosystem respiration. We apply this analytical framework to quantify the climatic sensitivity of an ensemble of models including CASA, Biome-BGC, LPJ as well as several other DGVMs from previous studies, all driven by the CRU-NCEP climate dataset. The detailed analysis results are reported in this study.

  6. Marine low cloud sensitivity to an idealized climate change : The CGILS LES intercomparison

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Blossey, P.N.; Bretherton, C.S.; Zhang, M.; Cheng, A.; Endo, S.; Heus, T.; Liu, Y.; Lock, A.P.; De Roode, S.R.; Xu, K.M.

    2013-01-01

    Subtropical marine low cloud sensitivity to an idealized climate change is compared in six large-eddy simulation (LES) models as part of CGILS. July cloud cover is simulated at three locations over the subtropical northeast Pacific Ocean, which are typified by cold sea surface temperatures (SSTs)

  7. Sensitivity of pine flatwoods hydrology to climate change and forest management in Florida, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jianbiao Lu; Ge Sun; Steven G. McNulty; Nicholas B. Comerford

    2009-01-01

    Pine flatwoods (a mixture of cypress wetlands and managed pine uplands) is an important ecosystem in the southeastern U.S. However, long-term hydrologic impacts of forest management and climate change on this heterogeneous landscape are not well understood. Therefore, this study examined the sensitivity of cypress-pine flatwoods...

  8. Can feedback analysis be used to uncover the physical origin of climate sensitivity and efficacy differences?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rieger, Vanessa S.; Dietmüller, Simone; Ponater, Michael

    2017-10-01

    Different strengths and types of radiative forcings cause variations in the climate sensitivities and efficacies. To relate these changes to their physical origin, this study tests whether a feedback analysis is a suitable approach. For this end, we apply the partial radiative perturbation method. Combining the forward and backward calculation turns out to be indispensable to ensure the additivity of feedbacks and to yield a closed forcing-feedback-balance at top of the atmosphere. For a set of CO2-forced simulations, the climate sensitivity changes with increasing forcing. The albedo, cloud and combined water vapour and lapse rate feedback are found to be responsible for the variations in the climate sensitivity. An O3-forced simulation (induced by enhanced NOx and CO surface emissions) causes a smaller efficacy than a CO2-forced simulation with a similar magnitude of forcing. We find that the Planck, albedo and most likely the cloud feedback are responsible for this effect. Reducing the radiative forcing impedes the statistical separability of feedbacks. We additionally discuss formal inconsistencies between the common ways of comparing climate sensitivities and feedbacks. Moreover, methodical recommendations for future work are given.

  9. Internal Variability and Disequilibrium Confound Estimates of Climate Sensitivity From Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marvel, Kate; Pincus, Robert; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Miller, Ron L.

    2018-02-01

    An emerging literature suggests that estimates of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) derived from recent observations and energy balance models are biased low because models project more positive climate feedback in the far future. Here we use simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to show that across models, ECS inferred from the recent historical period (1979-2005) is indeed almost uniformly lower than that inferred from simulations subject to abrupt increases in CO2 radiative forcing. However, ECS inferred from simulations in which sea surface temperatures are prescribed according to observations is lower still. ECS inferred from simulations with prescribed sea surface temperatures is strongly linked to changes to tropical marine low clouds. However, feedbacks from these clouds are a weak constraint on long-term model ECS. One interpretation is that observations of recent climate changes constitute a poor direct proxy for long-term sensitivity.

  10. Energy partitioning at treeline forest and tundra sites and its sensitivity to climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lafleur, P.M. [Trent Univ., Peterborough, ON (Canada); Rouse, W.R. [McMaster Univ., Hamilton, ON (Canada)

    1995-12-31

    A study was conducted to examine the inter-annual variability in energy fluxes of treeline tundra and forest and to investigate the sensitivity of forest and tundra energy balances to climatic changes. A five year record of energy balance data from contiguous wetland tundra and subarctic forest sites near Churchill, Manitoba was analyzed. The data included snow free periods only. Wind direction was used as an analogue for changing climatic conditions where onshore winds are cooler and moister than offshore winds. Sensible and latent heat fluxes at both sites varied significantly between onshore and offshore wind regimes. The differences between onshore and offshore fluxes at the tundra site were larger than for the forest. The tundra-to-forest Bowen ratios decreased with increasing vapour pressure deficit and increasing air temperature. Results suggest that energy partitioning in the wetland tundra is more sensitive to climate change than in the treeline forests. 22 refs., 1 tab., 6 figs.

  11. International Space Science Institute Workshop on Shallow Clouds, Water Vapor, Circulation and Climate Sensitivity

    CERN Document Server

    Winker, David; Bony, Sandrine; Stevens, Bjorn

    2018-01-01

    This volume presents a series of overview articles arising from a workshop exploring the links among shallow clouds, water vapor, circulation, and climate sensitivity. It provides a state-of-the art synthesis of understanding about the coupling of clouds and water vapor to the large-scale circulation. The emphasis is on two phenomena, namely the self-aggregation of deep convection and interactions between low clouds and the large-scale environment, with direct links to the sensitivity of climate to radiative perturbations. Each subject is approached using simulations, observations, and synthesizing theory; particular attention is paid to opportunities offered by new remote-sensing technologies, some still prospective. The collection provides a thorough grounding in topics representing one of the World Climate Research Program’s Grand Challenges. Previously published in Surveys in Geophysics, Volume 38, Issue 6, 2017 The articles “Observing Convective Aggregation”, “An Observational View of Relationshi...

  12. TerraClimate, a high-resolution global dataset of monthly climate and climatic water balance from 1958-2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abatzoglou, John T.; Dobrowski, Solomon Z.; Parks, Sean A.; Hegewisch, Katherine C.

    2018-01-01

    We present TerraClimate, a dataset of high-spatial resolution (1/24°, ~4-km) monthly climate and climatic water balance for global terrestrial surfaces from 1958-2015. TerraClimate uses climatically aided interpolation, combining high-spatial resolution climatological normals from the WorldClim dataset, with coarser resolution time varying (i.e., monthly) data from other sources to produce a monthly dataset of precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature, wind speed, vapor pressure, and solar radiation. TerraClimate additionally produces monthly surface water balance datasets using a water balance model that incorporates reference evapotranspiration, precipitation, temperature, and interpolated plant extractable soil water capacity. These data provide important inputs for ecological and hydrological studies at global scales that require high spatial resolution and time varying climate and climatic water balance data. We validated spatiotemporal aspects of TerraClimate using annual temperature, precipitation, and calculated reference evapotranspiration from station data, as well as annual runoff from streamflow gauges. TerraClimate datasets showed noted improvement in overall mean absolute error and increased spatial realism relative to coarser resolution gridded datasets.

  13. Sensitivity of tropical carbon to climate change constrained by carbon dioxide variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cox, Peter M; Pearson, David; Booth, Ben B; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Huntingford, Chris; Jones, Chris D; Luke, Catherine M

    2013-02-21

    The release of carbon from tropical forests may exacerbate future climate change, but the magnitude of the effect in climate models remains uncertain. Coupled climate-carbon-cycle models generally agree that carbon storage on land will increase as a result of the simultaneous enhancement of plant photosynthesis and water use efficiency under higher atmospheric CO(2) concentrations, but will decrease owing to higher soil and plant respiration rates associated with warming temperatures. At present, the balance between these effects varies markedly among coupled climate-carbon-cycle models, leading to a range of 330 gigatonnes in the projected change in the amount of carbon stored on tropical land by 2100. Explanations for this large uncertainty include differences in the predicted change in rainfall in Amazonia and variations in the responses of alternative vegetation models to warming. Here we identify an emergent linear relationship, across an ensemble of models, between the sensitivity of tropical land carbon storage to warming and the sensitivity of the annual growth rate of atmospheric CO(2) to tropical temperature anomalies. Combined with contemporary observations of atmospheric CO(2) concentration and tropical temperature, this relationship provides a tight constraint on the sensitivity of tropical land carbon to climate change. We estimate that over tropical land from latitude 30° north to 30° south, warming alone will release 53 ± 17 gigatonnes of carbon per kelvin. Compared with the unconstrained ensemble of climate-carbon-cycle projections, this indicates a much lower risk of Amazon forest dieback under CO(2)-induced climate change if CO(2) fertilization effects are as large as suggested by current models. Our study, however, also implies greater certainty that carbon will be lost from tropical land if warming arises from reductions in aerosols or increases in other greenhouse gases.

  14. EDITORIAL: Northern Hemisphere high latitude climate and environmental change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Groisman, Pavel; Soja, Amber

    2007-10-01

    Chang and Won-Tae Kwon Land cover and land use Responses of the circumpolar boreal forest to 20th century climate variability Andrea H Lloyd and Andrew G Bunn The biogeochemical cycle and its feedbacks Sphagnum peatland development at their southern climatic range inWest Siberia: trends and peat accumulation patterns Anna Peregon, Masao Uchida and Yasuyuki Shibata Methane emissions from western Siberian wetlands: heterogeneity and sensitivity to climate change T J Bohn, D P Lettenmaier, K Sathulur, L C Bowling, E Podest, K C McDonald and T Friborg The cryosphere Potential feedback of thawing permafrost to the global climate system through methane emission O A Anisimov Glacier changes in the Siberian Altai Mountains, Ob river basin, (1952 2006) estimated with high resolution imagery A B Surazakov, V B Aizen, E M Aizen and S A Nikitin Human dimensions Food and water security in a changing arctic climate Daniel M White, S Craig Gerlach, Philip Loring, Amy C Tidwell and Molly C Chambers

  15. High sensitivity MOSFET-based neutron dosimetry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fragopoulou, M.; Konstantakos, V.; Zamani, M.; Siskos, S.; Laopoulos, T.; Sarrabayrouse, G.

    2010-01-01

    A new dosemeter based on a metal-oxide-semiconductor field effect transistor sensitive to both neutrons and gamma radiation was manufactured at LAAS-CNRS Laboratory, Toulouse, France. In order to be used for neutron dosimetry, a thin film of lithium fluoride was deposited on the surface of the gate of the device. The characteristics of the dosemeter, such as the dependence of its response to neutron dose and dose rate, were investigated. The studied dosemeter was very sensitive to gamma rays compared to other dosemeters proposed in the literature. Its response in thermal neutrons was found to be much higher than in fast neutrons and gamma rays.

  16. Evaluating the Sensitivity of Agricultural Model Performance to Different Climate Inputs: Supplemental Material

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glotter, Michael J.; Ruane, Alex C.; Moyer, Elisabeth J.; Elliott, Joshua W.

    2015-01-01

    Projections of future food production necessarily rely on models, which must themselves be validated through historical assessments comparing modeled and observed yields. Reliable historical validation requires both accurate agricultural models and accurate climate inputs. Problems with either may compromise the validation exercise. Previous studies have compared the effects of different climate inputs on agricultural projections but either incompletely or without a ground truth of observed yields that would allow distinguishing errors due to climate inputs from those intrinsic to the crop model. This study is a systematic evaluation of the reliability of a widely used crop model for simulating U.S. maize yields when driven by multiple observational data products. The parallelized Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (pDSSAT) is driven with climate inputs from multiple sources reanalysis, reanalysis that is bias corrected with observed climate, and a control dataset and compared with observed historical yields. The simulations show that model output is more accurate when driven by any observation-based precipitation product than when driven by non-bias-corrected reanalysis. The simulations also suggest, in contrast to previous studies, that biased precipitation distribution is significant for yields only in arid regions. Some issues persist for all choices of climate inputs: crop yields appear to be oversensitive to precipitation fluctuations but under sensitive to floods and heat waves. These results suggest that the most important issue for agricultural projections may be not climate inputs but structural limitations in the crop models themselves.

  17. A sensitivity analysis of hazardous waste disposal site climatic and soil design parameters using HELP3

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Adelman, D.D.; Stansbury, J.

    1997-01-01

    The Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) Subtitle C, Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, And Liability Act (CERCLA), and subsequent amendments have formed a comprehensive framework to deal with hazardous wastes on the national level. Key to this waste management is guidance on design (e.g., cover and bottom leachate control systems) of hazardous waste landfills. The objective of this research was to investigate the sensitivity of leachate volume at hazardous waste disposal sites to climatic, soil cover, and vegetative cover (Leaf Area Index) conditions. The computer model HELP3 which has the capability to simulate double bottom liner systems as called for in hazardous waste disposal sites was used in the analysis. HELP3 was used to model 54 combinations of climatic conditions, disposal site soil surface curve numbers, and leaf area index values to investigate how sensitive disposal site leachate volume was to these three variables. Results showed that leachate volume from the bottom double liner system was not sensitive to these parameters. However, the cover liner system leachate volume was quite sensitive to climatic conditions and less sensitive to Leaf Area Index and curve number values. Since humid locations had considerably more cover liner system leachate volume than and locations, different design standards may be appropriate for humid conditions than for and conditions

  18. Environmental Sensitivity in Children: Development of the Highly Sensitive Child Scale and Identification of Sensitivity Groups

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pluess, Michael; Assary, Elham; Lionetti, Francesca; Lester, Kathryn J.; Krapohl, Eva; Aron, Elaine N.; Aron, Arthur

    2018-01-01

    A large number of studies document that children differ in the degree they are shaped by their developmental context with some being more sensitive to environmental influences than others. Multiple theories suggest that "Environmental Sensitivity" is a common trait predicting the response to negative as well as positive exposures.…

  19. Quantifying PM2.5-Meteorology Sensitivities in a Global Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westervelt, D. M.; Horowitz, L. W.; Naik, V.; Tai, A. P. K.; Fiore, A. M.; Mauzerall, D. L.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change can influence fine particulate matter concentrations (PM2.5) through changes in air pollution meteorology. Knowledge of the extent to which climate change can exacerbate or alleviate air pollution in the future is needed for robust climate and air pollution policy decision-making. To examine the influence of climate on PM2.5, we use the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Coupled Model version 3 (GFDL CM3), a fully-coupled chemistry-climate model, combined with future emissions and concentrations provided by the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). For each of the RCPs, we conduct future simulations in which emissions of aerosols and their precursors are held at 2005 levels while other climate forcing agents evolve in time, such that only climate (and thus meteorology) can influence PM2.5 surface concentrations. We find a small increase in global, annual mean PM2.5 of about 0.21 micro-g/cu m3 (5%) for RCP8.5, a scenario with maximum warming. Changes in global mean PM2.5 are at a maximum in the fall and are mainly controlled by sulfate followed by organic aerosol with minimal influence of black carbon. RCP2.6 is the only scenario that projects a decrease in global PM2.5 with future climate changes, albeit only by -0.06 micro-g/cu m (1.5%) by the end of the 21st century. Regional and local changes in PM2.5 are larger, reaching upwards of 2 micro-g/cu m for polluted (eastern China) and dusty (western Africa) locations on an annually averaged basis in RCP8.5. Using multiple linear regression, we find that future PM2.5 concentrations are most sensitive to local temperature, followed by surface wind and precipitation. PM2.5 concentrations are robustly positively associated with temperature, while negatively related with precipitation and wind speed. Present-day (2006-2015) modeled sensitivities of PM2.5 to meteorological variables are evaluated against observations and found to agree reasonably well with observed sensitivities (within 10e50

  20. High sensitivity optical measurement of skin gloss

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ezerskaia, A.; Ras, Arno; Bloemen, Pascal; Pereira, S.F.; Urbach, Paul; Varghese, Babu

    2017-01-01

    We demonstrate a low-cost optical method for measuring the gloss properties with improved sensitivity in the low gloss regime, relevant for skin gloss properties. The gloss estimation method is based on, on the one hand, the slope of the intensity gradient in the transition regime between

  1. Potential Sensitivity of Québec's Breeding Birds to Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jean-Luc DesGranges

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available We examined the relationship between climatic factors and the distribution of breeding birds in southern Québec, Canada to identify the species whose distribution renders them potentially sensitive to climate change in the study area. We determined the degree of association between the distribution of 65 breeding bird species (601 presence-absence squares of the Atlas of the Breeding Birds of Québec and climate variables (212 climatological stations in operation for at least 20 years over the period 1953-1984 by statistically correcting for the effects of several factors that are correlated with bird distribution. Factors considered were the nature and scale of land cover patterns that included vegetation types and landscape characterization, geographical coordinates, and elevation. Canonical Correspondence Analysis (CCA was used to investigate the effect of climatic variables on breeding bird distribution. Independent variables accounted for a total of 29.1% of the variation in the species matrix. A very large portion of the variance explained by climate variables was shared with spatial variables, reflecting the relationships among latitude, longitude, elevation, and climate. After correcting for the effect of land cover variables, climatic variables still explained 11.4% of the variation in the species matrix, with temperature, i.e., warmer summers and milder winters, having a greater influence than precipitation, i.e., wetter summers. Of the 65 species, 14 appeared to be particularly climate-sensitive. Eight are insectivorous neotropical migrants and six species are at the northern limit of their range in the study area. The opposite is largely true for the eight others; they are practically absent from the southern part of the study area, except for the Dark-eyed Junco (Junco hyemalis, which is widespread there. The White-breasted Nuthatch (Sitta carolinensis is the only resident species that seemed responsive to climatic variables, i

  2. High sensitivity optical measurement of skin gloss

    OpenAIRE

    Ezerskaia, Anna; Ras, Arno; Bloemen, Pascal; Pereira, Silvania F.; Urbach, H. Paul; Varghese, Babu

    2017-01-01

    We demonstrate a low-cost optical method for measuring the gloss properties with improved sensitivity in the low gloss regime, relevant for skin gloss properties. The gloss estimation method is based on, on the one hand, the slope of the intensity gradient in the transition regime between specular and diffuse reflection and on the other on the sum over the intensities of pixels above threshold, derived from a camera image obtained using unpolarized white light illumination. We demonstrate the...

  3. The Impact of Subsidies on the Prevalence of Climate-Sensitive Residential Buildings in Malaysia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David T. Tan

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Dependence on air-conditioning (AC for residential cooling and ventilation is a health and sustainability challenge. In hot temperatures, climate-sensitive buildings (CSB can complement and/or substitute for AC usage in achieving thermal comfort. Many countries facing such conditions—particularly in tropical climates—are developing quickly, with rising populations and income creating demand for new housing and AC. This presents a window for adoption of CSB but could also result in long term lock-in of AC-dependent buildings. Here, a simple system dynamics model is used to explore the potential and limitations of subsidies to affect futures of housing stock and night-time AC usage in Malaysia. The effectiveness of subsidies in achieving high uptake of CSB and resulting health benefits is highly dependent on homebuyer willingness to pay (WTP. A detailed understanding of WTP in the Malaysian context and factors that can shift WTP is necessary to determine if CSB subsidies can be a good policy mechanism for achieving CSB uptake.

  4. The ice-core record - Climate sensitivity and future greenhouse warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lorius, C.; Raynaud, D.; Jouzel, J.; Hansen, J.; Le Treut, H.

    1990-01-01

    The prediction of future greenhouse-gas-warming depends critically on the sensitivity of earth's climate to increasing atmospheric concentrations of these gases. Data from cores drilled in polar ice sheets show a remarkable correlation between past glacial-interglacial temperature changes and the inferred atmospheric concentration of gases such as carbon dioxide and methane. These and other palaeoclimate data are used to assess the role of greenhouse gases in explaining past global climate change, and the validity of models predicting the effect of increasing concentrations of such gases in the atmosphere.

  5. Climate impacts of the NAO are sensitive to how the NAO is defined

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pokorná, Lucie; Huth, Radan

    2015-02-01

    We analyze the sensitivity of the effects the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) exerts on surface temperature and precipitation in Europe to the definition of the NAO index. Seven different NAO indices are examined: two based on station sea level pressure (SLP) data, two based on action centers, and three based on correlation/covariance structures described by principal component analysis (PCA). The analysis is based on monthly mean data; winter and summer seasons are analyzed separately. Temporal correlations between indices are weaker in summer than in winter for most pairs of indices. In particular, low correlations are found between station indices on the one hand and PCA-based indices on the other hand. The NAO effects are quantified by correlations between the indices and station data in Europe. Effects of the NAO on precipitation amount and wet day probability are very similar, while NAO effects on maximum temperature are stronger than those on minimum temperature. The sensitivity of the NAO effects on both surface temperature and precipitation to the choice of the NAO index is considerably higher in summer. Correlations differ among the NAO indices not only in their magnitude but in some regions in summer also in their sign. These effects can be explained by a northward shift of the whole NAO pattern and its action centers in summer, away from the sites on which the station indices are based, and by a decoupling of the Azores high and Icelandic low from the centers of high covariability, identified by PCA. Considerable differences in SLP anomaly patterns associated to individual NAO indices also contribute to different responses in temperature and precipitation. Finally, we formulate two recommendations to future analyses of NAO effects on surface climate: use several different NAO indices instead of a single one, and for summer do not use station indices because they do not represent the circulation variability related to the NAO.

  6. Circulation and oxygen cycling in the Mediterranean Sea: Sensitivity to future climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Powley, Helen R.; Krom, Michael D.; Van Cappellen, Philippe

    2016-11-01

    Climate change is expected to increase temperatures and decrease precipitation in the Mediterranean Sea (MS) basin, causing substantial changes in the thermohaline circulation (THC) of both the Western Mediterranean Sea (WMS) and Eastern Mediterranean Sea (EMS). The exact nature of future circulation changes remains highly uncertain, however, with forecasts varying from a weakening to a strengthening of the THC. Here we assess the sensitivity of dissolved oxygen (O2) distributions in the WMS and EMS to THC changes using a mass balance model, which represents the exchanges of O2 between surface, intermediate, and deep water reservoirs, and through the Straits of Sicily and Gibraltar. Perturbations spanning the ranges in O2 solubility, aerobic respiration kinetics, and THC changes projected for the year 2100 are imposed to the O2 model. In all scenarios tested, the entire MS remains fully oxygenated after 100 years; depending on the THC regime, average deep water O2 concentrations fall in the ranges 151-205 and 160-219 µM in the WMS and EMS, respectively. On longer timescales (>1000 years), the scenario with the largest (>74%) decline in deep water formation rate leads to deep water hypoxia in the EMS but, even then, the WMS deep water remains oxygenated. In addition, a weakening of THC may result in a negative feedback on O2 consumption as supply of labile dissolved organic carbon to deep water decreases. Thus, it appears unlikely that climate-driven changes in THC will cause severe O2 depletion of the deep water masses of the MS in the foreseeable future.

  7. High-latitude tree-ring data: Records of climatic change and ecological response

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Graumlich, L.J.

    1991-01-01

    Tree-ring data provide critical information regarding two fundamental questions as to the role of the polar regions in global change: (1) what is the nature of climatic variability? and (2) what is the response of vegetation to climatic variability? Tree-ring-based climatic reconstructions document the variability of the climate system on time scales of years to centuries. Dendroclimatic reconstructions indicate that the climatic episodes defined on the basis of documentary evidence in western Europe (i.e., Medieval Warm Episode, ca. A.D. 1000-1300; Little Ice Age, ca. A.D. 1550-1850) can be observed at some high-latitude sites (ex., Polar Urals). Spatial variation in long-term temperature trends (ex., northern Fennoscandia vs. Polar Urals) demonstrates the importance of regional-scale climatic controls. When collated into global networks, proxy-based climatic reconstructions can be used to test hypotheses as to the relative importance of external forcing vs. internal variation in governing climatic variation. Specifically, such a global network would allow the quantification of the climatic response to various permutations of factors thought to be important in governing decadal- to centennial-scale climatic variation. Tree populations respond to annual- to centennial-scale climatic variation through changes in rates of growth, establishment, and mortality. Tree-ring studies that document multiple aspects of high-latitude treeline dynamics (i.e., the timing of tree establishment, mortality, and changes from krummholz to upright growth) indicate a complex interaction between growth form, population processes, and environmental variability. Such interactions result in varying sensitivities of high-latitude trees to climatic change

  8. High sensitivity optical measurement of skin gloss.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ezerskaia, Anna; Ras, Arno; Bloemen, Pascal; Pereira, Silvania F; Urbach, H Paul; Varghese, Babu

    2017-09-01

    We demonstrate a low-cost optical method for measuring the gloss properties with improved sensitivity in the low gloss regime, relevant for skin gloss properties. The gloss estimation method is based on, on the one hand, the slope of the intensity gradient in the transition regime between specular and diffuse reflection and on the other on the sum over the intensities of pixels above threshold, derived from a camera image obtained using unpolarized white light illumination. We demonstrate the improved sensitivity of the two proposed methods using Monte Carlo simulations and experiments performed on ISO gloss calibration standards with an optical prototype. The performance and linearity of the method was compared with different professional gloss measurement devices based on the ratio of specular to diffuse intensity. We demonstrate the feasibility for in-vivo skin gloss measurements by quantifying the temporal evolution of skin gloss after application of standard paraffin cream bases on skin. The presented method opens new possibilities in the fields of cosmetology and dermatopharmacology for measuring the skin gloss and resorption kinetics and the pharmacodynamics of various external agents.

  9. Sensitivity of marine systems to climate and fishing: Concepts, issues and management responses

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Perry, Ian; Cury, Philippe; Brander, Keith

    2010-01-01

    forcing. Fishing is unlikely to alter the sensitivities of individual finfish and invertebrates to climate forcing. It will remove individuals with specific characteristics from the gene pool, thereby affecting structure and function at higher levels of organisation. Fishing leads to a loss of older age......Modern fisheries research and management must understand and take account of the interactions between climate and fishing, rather than try to disentangle their effects and address each separately. These interactions are significant drivers of change in exploited marine systems and have...... but will be manifest as the accumulation of the interactions between fishing and climate variability — unless threshold limits are exceeded. Marine resource managers need to develop approaches which maintain the resilience of individuals, populations, communities and ecosystems to the combined and interacting effects...

  10. Why Classroom Climate Matters for Children High in Anxious Solitude: A Study of Differential Susceptibility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hughes, Kathleen; Coplan, Robert J.

    2018-01-01

    The goal of the current study was to examine the complex links among anxious solitude, classroom climate, engagement, achievement, and gender. In particular, drawing upon the differential susceptibility hypothesis (Belsky, 1997), we investigated if children high in anxious solitude were particularly sensitive and responsive to the classroom…

  11. The importance of geomorphic and hydrologic factors in shaping the sensitivity of alpine/subalpine lake volumes to shifts in climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mercer, J.; Liefert, D. T.; Shuman, B. N.; Befus, K. M.; Williams, D. G.; Kraushaar, B.

    2017-12-01

    Alpine and subalpine lakes are important components of the hydrologic cycle in mountain ecosystems. These lakes are also highly sensitive to small shifts in temperature and precipitation. Mountain lake volumes and their contributions to mountain hydrology may change in response to even minor declines in snowpack or increases in temperature. However, it is still not clear to what degree non-climatic factors, such as geomorphic setting and lake geometry, play in shaping the sensitivity of high elevation lakes to climate change. We investigated the importance of lake geometry and groundwater connectivity to mountain lakes in the Snowy Range, Wyoming using a combination of hydrophysical and hydrochemical methods, including stable water isotopes, to better understand the role these factors play in controlling lake volume. Water isotope values in open lakes were less sensitive to evaporation compared to those in closed basin lakes. Lake geometry played an important role, with wider, shallower lakes being more sensitive to evaporation over time. Groundwater contributions appear to play only a minor role in buffering volumetric changes to lakes over the growing season. These results confirm that mountain lakes are sensitive to climate factors, but also highlight a significant amount of variability in that sensitivity. This research has implications for water resource managers concerned with downstream water quantity and quality from mountain ecosystems, biologists interested in maintaining aquatic biodiversity, and paleoclimatologists interested in using lake sedimentary information to infer past climate regimes.

  12. Sensitivity of the weather research and forecasting model to parameterization schemes for regional climate of Nile River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tariku, Tebikachew Betru; Gan, Thian Yew

    2018-06-01

    Regional climate models (RCMs) have been used to simulate rainfall at relatively high spatial and temporal resolutions useful for sustainable water resources planning, design and management. In this study, the sensitivity of the RCM, weather research and forecasting (WRF), in modeling the regional climate of the Nile River Basin (NRB) was investigated using 31 combinations of different physical parameterization schemes which include cumulus (Cu), microphysics (MP), planetary boundary layer (PBL), land-surface model (LSM) and radiation (Ra) schemes. Using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) ERA-Interim reanalysis data as initial and lateral boundary conditions, WRF was configured to model the climate of NRB at a resolution of 36 km with 30 vertical levels. The 1999-2001 simulations using WRF were compared with satellite data combined with ground observation and the NCEP reanalysis data for 2 m surface air temperature (T2), rainfall, short- and longwave downward radiation at the surface (SWRAD, LWRAD). Overall, WRF simulated more accurate T2 and LWRAD (with correlation coefficients >0.8 and low root-mean-square error) than SWRAD and rainfall for the NRB. Further, the simulation of rainfall is more sensitive to PBL, Cu and MP schemes than other schemes of WRF. For example, WRF simulated less biased rainfall with Kain-Fritsch combined with MYJ than with YSU as the PBL scheme. The simulation of T2 is more sensitive to LSM and Ra than to Cu, PBL and MP schemes selected, SWRAD is more sensitive to MP and Ra than to Cu, LSM and PBL schemes, and LWRAD is more sensitive to LSM, Ra and PBL than Cu, and MP schemes. In summary, the following combination of schemes simulated the most representative regional climate of NRB: WSM3 microphysics, KF cumulus, MYJ PBL, RRTM longwave radiation and Dudhia shortwave radiation schemes, and Noah LSM. The above configuration of WRF coupled to the Noah LSM has also been shown to simulate representative regional

  13. Sensitivity of the weather research and forecasting model to parameterization schemes for regional climate of Nile River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tariku, Tebikachew Betru; Gan, Thian Yew

    2017-08-01

    Regional climate models (RCMs) have been used to simulate rainfall at relatively high spatial and temporal resolutions useful for sustainable water resources planning, design and management. In this study, the sensitivity of the RCM, weather research and forecasting (WRF), in modeling the regional climate of the Nile River Basin (NRB) was investigated using 31 combinations of different physical parameterization schemes which include cumulus (Cu), microphysics (MP), planetary boundary layer (PBL), land-surface model (LSM) and radiation (Ra) schemes. Using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) ERA-Interim reanalysis data as initial and lateral boundary conditions, WRF was configured to model the climate of NRB at a resolution of 36 km with 30 vertical levels. The 1999-2001 simulations using WRF were compared with satellite data combined with ground observation and the NCEP reanalysis data for 2 m surface air temperature (T2), rainfall, short- and longwave downward radiation at the surface (SWRAD, LWRAD). Overall, WRF simulated more accurate T2 and LWRAD (with correlation coefficients >0.8 and low root-mean-square error) than SWRAD and rainfall for the NRB. Further, the simulation of rainfall is more sensitive to PBL, Cu and MP schemes than other schemes of WRF. For example, WRF simulated less biased rainfall with Kain-Fritsch combined with MYJ than with YSU as the PBL scheme. The simulation of T2 is more sensitive to LSM and Ra than to Cu, PBL and MP schemes selected, SWRAD is more sensitive to MP and Ra than to Cu, LSM and PBL schemes, and LWRAD is more sensitive to LSM, Ra and PBL than Cu, and MP schemes. In summary, the following combination of schemes simulated the most representative regional climate of NRB: WSM3 microphysics, KF cumulus, MYJ PBL, RRTM longwave radiation and Dudhia shortwave radiation schemes, and Noah LSM. The above configuration of WRF coupled to the Noah LSM has also been shown to simulate representative regional

  14. The Active Role of the Ocean in the Temporal Evolution of Climate Sensitivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garuba, Oluwayemi A.; Lu, Jian; Liu, Fukai; Singh, Hansi A.

    2018-01-01

    The temporal evolution of the effective climate sensitivity is shown to be influenced by the changing pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) and ocean heat uptake (OHU), which in turn have been attributed to ocean circulation changes. A set of novel experiments are performed to isolate the active role of the ocean by comparing a fully coupled CO2 quadrupling community Earth System Model (CESM) simulation against a partially coupled one, where the effect of the ocean circulation change and its impact on surface fluxes are disabled. The active OHU is responsible for the reduced effective climate sensitivity and weaker surface warming response in the fully coupled simulation. The passive OHU excites qualitatively similar feedbacks to CO2 quadrupling in a slab ocean model configuration due to the similar SST spatial pattern response in both experiments. Additionally, the nonunitary forcing efficacy of the active OHU (1.7) explains the very different net feedback parameters in the fully and partially coupled responses.

  15. The selectively bred high alcohol sensitivity (HAS) and low alcohol sensitivity (LAS) rats differ in sensitivity to nicotine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Fiebre, NancyEllen C; Dawson, Ralph; de Fiebre, Christopher M

    2002-06-01

    Studies in rodents selectively bred to differ in alcohol sensitivity have suggested that nicotine and ethanol sensitivities may cosegregate during selective breeding. This suggests that ethanol and nicotine sensitivities may in part be genetically correlated. Male and female high alcohol sensitivity (HAS), control alcohol sensitivity, and low alcohol sensitivity (LAS) rats were tested for nicotine-induced alterations in locomotor activity, body temperature, and seizure activity. Plasma and brain levels of nicotine and its primary metabolite, cotinine, were measured in these animals, as was the binding of [3H]cytisine, [3H]epibatidine, and [125I]alpha-bungarotoxin in eight brain regions. Both replicate HAS lines were more sensitive to nicotine-induced locomotor activity depression than the replicate LAS lines. No consistent HAS/LAS differences were seen on other measures of nicotine sensitivity; however, females were more susceptible to nicotine-induced seizures than males. No HAS/LAS differences in nicotine or cotinine levels were seen, nor were differences seen in the binding of nicotinic ligands. Females had higher levels of plasma cotinine and brain nicotine than males but had lower brain cotinine levels than males. Sensitivity to a specific action of nicotine cosegregates during selective breeding for differential sensitivity to a specific action of ethanol. The differential sensitivity of the HAS/LAS rats is due to differences in central nervous system sensitivity and not to pharmacokinetic differences. The differential central nervous system sensitivity cannot be explained by differences in the numbers of nicotinic receptors labeled in ligand-binding experiments. The apparent genetic correlation between ethanol and nicotine sensitivities suggests that common genes modulate, in part, the actions of both ethanol and nicotine and may explain the frequent coabuse of these agents.

  16. Sensitivity of inferred climate model skill to evaluation decisions: a case study using CMIP5 evapotranspiration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schwalm, Christopher R; Huntinzger, Deborah N; Michalak, Anna M; Fisher, Joshua B; Kimball, John S; Mueller, Brigitte; Zhang, Ke; Zhang Yongqiang

    2013-01-01

    Confrontation of climate models with observationally-based reference datasets is widespread and integral to model development. These comparisons yield skill metrics quantifying the mismatch between simulated and reference values and also involve analyst choices, or meta-parameters, in structuring the analysis. Here, we systematically vary five such meta-parameters (reference dataset, spatial resolution, regridding approach, land mask, and time period) in evaluating evapotranspiration (ET) from eight CMIP5 models in a factorial design that yields 68 700 intercomparisons. The results show that while model–data comparisons can provide some feedback on overall model performance, model ranks are ambiguous and inferred model skill and rank are highly sensitive to the choice of meta-parameters for all models. This suggests that model skill and rank are best represented probabilistically rather than as scalar values. For this case study, the choice of reference dataset is found to have a dominant influence on inferred model skill, even larger than the choice of model itself. This is primarily due to large differences between reference datasets, indicating that further work in developing a community-accepted standard ET reference dataset is crucial in order to decrease ambiguity in model skill. (letter)

  17. Weak Hydrological Sensitivity to Temperature Change over Land, Independent of Climate Forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samset, B. H.; Myhre, G.; Forster, P. M.; Hodnebrog, O.; Andrews, T.; Boucher, O.; Faluvegi, G.; Flaeschner, D.; Kasoar, M.; Kharin, V.; hide

    2018-01-01

    We present the global and regional hydrological sensitivity (HS) to surface temperature changes, for perturbations to CO2, CH4, sulfate and black carbon concentrations, and solar irradiance. Based on results from ten climate models, we show how modeled global mean precipitation increases by 2-3% per kelvin of global mean surface warming, independent of driver, when the effects of rapid adjustments are removed. Previously reported differences in response between drivers are therefore mainly ascribable to rapid atmospheric adjustment processes. All models show a sharp contrast in behavior over land and over ocean, with a strong surface temperature-driven (slow) ocean HS of 3-5%/K, while the slow land HS is only 0-2%/K. Separating the response into convective and large-scale cloud processes, we find larger inter-model differences, in particular over land regions. Large-scale precipitation changes are most relevant at high latitudes, while the equatorial HS is dominated by convective precipitation changes. Black carbon stands out as the driver with the largest inter-model slow HS variability, and also the strongest contrast between a weak land and strong sea response. We identify a particular need for model investigations and observational constraints on convective precipitation in the Arctic, and large-scale precipitation around the Equator.

  18. Climate-sensitive urban design through Envi-Met simulation: case study in Kemayoran, Jakarta

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kusumastuty, K. D.; Poerbo, H. W.; Koerniawan, M. D.

    2018-03-01

    Indonesia as a tropical country which the character of its climate are hot and humid, the outdoor activity applications are often disrupted due to discomfort in thermal conditions. Massive construction of skyscrapers in urban areas are caused by the increase of human population leads to reduced green and infiltration areas that impact to environmental imbalances and triggering microclimate changes with rising air temperatures on the surface. The area that significantly experiences the rise of temperature in the Central Business District (CBD), which has need an analysis to create thermal comfort conditions to improve the ease of outdoor activities by an approach. This study aims to design the Kemayoran CBD through Climate Sensitive Urban Design especially in hot and humid tropical climate area and analyze thermal comfort level and optimal air conditioning in the outdoor area. This research used a quantitative method by generating the design using Climate Sensitive Urban Design principle through Envi-met 4.1 simulation program to find out the value of PMV, air temperature, wind speed and relative humidity conditions. The design area considers the configuration of buildings such as the distance between buildings, the average height, the orientation of the building, and the width of the road.

  19. Climate Change Awareness among the High School Students: Case Study from a Climate Vulnerable Country

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S.M.A. Rahman

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Bangladesh is one the worst sufferers of climate change. Climate change awareness creation is pivotal to adaptation and mitigation strategies. Effective dissemination of knowledge among the citizens during high school years is crucial to that end. In Bangladesh, secondary school students follow common curricula which include entries on climate change. This paper investigates the role of the diverse demographic profiles and inherent scholastic background of students on their informedness. The research is based on responses from secondary schools students in Chittagong, Bangladesh. Based on their understanding of climate change, we have constructed the Climate Awareness Index (CAI. Then the relative roles of demographic determinants of the awareness have been compared using the CAI. The quality of schools, and grade, major and merit position of students have affected the CAI values. Besides, the study concluded that the religion, gender, parental education, occupation and income, etc. could affect students’ climate change informedness in Bangladesh.

  20. A piecewise modeling approach for climate sensitivity studies: Tests with a shallow-water model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shao, Aimei; Qiu, Chongjian; Niu, Guo-Yue

    2015-10-01

    In model-based climate sensitivity studies, model errors may grow during continuous long-term integrations in both the "reference" and "perturbed" states and hence the climate sensitivity (defined as the difference between the two states). To reduce the errors, we propose a piecewise modeling approach that splits the continuous long-term simulation into subintervals of sequential short-term simulations, and updates the modeled states through re-initialization at the end of each subinterval. In the re-initialization processes, this approach updates the reference state with analysis data and updates the perturbed states with the sum of analysis data and the difference between the perturbed and the reference states, thereby improving the credibility of the modeled climate sensitivity. We conducted a series of experiments with a shallow-water model to evaluate the advantages of the piecewise approach over the conventional continuous modeling approach. We then investigated the impacts of analysis data error and subinterval length used in the piecewise approach on the simulations of the reference and perturbed states as well as the resulting climate sensitivity. The experiments show that the piecewise approach reduces the errors produced by the conventional continuous modeling approach, more effectively when the analysis data error becomes smaller and the subinterval length is shorter. In addition, we employed a nudging assimilation technique to solve possible spin-up problems caused by re-initializations by using analysis data that contain inconsistent errors between mass and velocity. The nudging technique can effectively diminish the spin-up problem, resulting in a higher modeling skill.

  1. Comparison of winter wheat yield sensitivity to climate variables under irrigated and rain-fed conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiao, Dengpan; Shen, Yanjun; Zhang, He; Moiwo, Juana P.; Qi, Yongqing; Wang, Rende; Pei, Hongwei; Zhang, Yucui; Shen, Huitao

    2016-09-01

    Crop simulation models provide alternative, less time-consuming, and cost-effective means of determining the sensitivity of crop yield to climate change. In this study, two dynamic mechanistic models, CERES (Crop Environment Resource Synthesis) and APSIM (Agricultural Production Systems Simulator), were used to simulate the yield of wheat ( Triticum aestivum L.) under well irrigated (CFG) and rain-fed (YY) conditions in relation to different climate variables in the North China Plain (NCP). The study tested winter wheat yield sensitivity to different levels of temperature, radiation, precipitation, and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration under CFG and YY conditions at Luancheng Agro-ecosystem Experimental Stations in the NCP. The results from the CERES and APSIM wheat crop models were largely consistent and suggested that changes in climate variables influenced wheat grain yield in the NCP. There was also significant variation in the sensitivity of winter wheat yield to climate variables under different water (CFG and YY) conditions. While a temperature increase of 2°C was the threshold beyond which temperature negatively influenced wheat yield under CFG, a temperature rise exceeding 1°C decreased winter wheat grain yield under YY. A decrease in solar radiation decreased wheat grain yield under both CFG and YY conditions. Although the sensitivity of winter wheat yield to precipitation was small under the CFG, yield decreased significantly with decreasing precipitation under the rainfed YY treatment. The results also suggest that wheat yield under CFG linearly increased by ≈3.5% per 60 ppm (parts per million) increase in CO2 concentration from 380 to 560 ppm, and yield under YY increased linearly by ≈7.0% for the same increase in CO2 concentration.

  2. A New High Resolution Climate Dataset for Climate Change Impacts Assessments in New England

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komurcu, M.; Huber, M.

    2016-12-01

    Assessing regional impacts of climate change (such as changes in extreme events, land surface hydrology, water resources, energy, ecosystems and economy) requires much higher resolution climate variables than those available from global model projections. While it is possible to run global models in higher resolution, the high computational cost associated with these simulations prevent their use in such manner. To alleviate this problem, dynamical downscaling offers a method to deliver higher resolution climate variables. As part of an NSF EPSCoR funded interdisciplinary effort to assess climate change impacts on New Hampshire ecosystems, hydrology and economy (the New Hampshire Ecosystems and Society project), we create a unique high-resolution climate dataset for New England. We dynamically downscale global model projections under a high impact emissions scenario using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) with three nested grids of 27, 9 and 3 km horizontal resolution with the highest resolution innermost grid focusing over New England. We prefer dynamical downscaling over other methods such as statistical downscaling because it employs physical equations to progressively simulate climate variables as atmospheric processes interact with surface processes, emissions, radiation, clouds, precipitation and other model components, hence eliminates fix relationships between variables. In addition to simulating mean changes in regional climate, dynamical downscaling also allows for the simulation of climate extremes that significantly alter climate change impacts. We simulate three time slices: 2006-2015, 2040-2060 and 2080-2100. This new high-resolution climate dataset (with more than 200 variables saved in hourly (six hourly) intervals for the highest resolution domain (outer two domains)) along with model input and restart files used in our WRF simulations will be publicly available for use to the broader scientific community to support in-depth climate

  3. Changing climate and endangered high mountain ecosystems in Colombia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruiz, Daniel; Moreno, Hernán Alonso; Gutiérrez, María Elena; Zapata, Paula Andrea

    2008-07-15

    High mountain ecosystems are among the most sensitive environments to changes in climatic conditions occurring on global, regional and local scales. The article describes the changing conditions observed over recent years in the high mountain basin of the Claro River, on the west flank of the Colombian Andean Central mountain range. Local ground truth data gathered at 4150 m, regional data available at nearby weather stations, and satellite info were used to analyze changes in the mean and the variance, and significant trends in climatic time series. Records included minimum, mean and maximum temperatures, relative humidity, rainfall, sunshine, and cloud characteristics. In high levels, minimum and maximum temperatures during the coldest days increased at a rate of about 0.6 degrees C/decade, whereas maximum temperatures during the warmest days increased at a rate of about 1.3 degrees C/decade. Rates of increase in maximum, mean and minimum diurnal temperature range reached 0.6, 0.7, and 0.5 degrees C/decade. Maximum, mean and minimum relative humidity records showed reductions of about 1.8, 3.9 and 6.6%/decade. The total number of sunny days per month increased in almost 2.1 days. The headwaters exhibited no changes in rainfall totals, but evidenced an increased occurrence of unusually heavy rainfall events. Reductions in the amount of all cloud types over the area reached 1.9%/decade. In low levels changes in mean monthly temperatures and monthly rainfall totals exceeded + 0.2 degrees C and - 4% per decade, respectively. These striking changes might have contributed to the retreat of glacier icecaps and to the disappearance of high altitude water bodies, as well as to the occurrence and rapid spread of natural and man-induced forest fires. Significant reductions in water supply, important disruptions of the integrity of high mountain ecosystems, and dramatic losses of biodiversity are now a steady menu of the severe climatic conditions experienced by these

  4. Sensitivity of sediment magnetic records to climate change during Holocene for the northern South China Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ouyang, Tingping; Li, Mingkun; Zhao, Xiang; Zhu, Zhaoyu; Tian, Chengjing; Qiu, Yan; Peng, Xuechao; Hu, Qiao

    2016-05-01

    Magnetic property has been proved to be a sensitive proxy to climate change for both terrestrial and marine sediments. Based on the schedule frame established by AMS 14C dating of foraminifera, detail magnetic analyses were performed for core PC24 sediments at sampling intervals of 2 cm to discuss magnetic sensitivity of marine sediment to climate during Holocene for the northern South China Sea. The results indicated that: 1) Concentration dependent magnetic parameters are positive corresponding to variation of temperature. The frequency dependent susceptibility coefficient basically reflected the variation in humidity; 2) XARM/SIRM was more sensitive to detrital magnetite particles and SIRM/X was more effective to biogenic magnetite particles. Variations of XARM/SIRM and SIRM/X are corresponding to precipitation and temperature, respectively; 3) the Holocene Megathermal in the study area was identified as 7.5-3.4 cal. ka BP. The warmest stage of Holocene for the study area should be during 6.1 to 3.9 cal. ka BP; 4) The 8 ka cold event was characterized as cold and dry during 8.55 to 8.25 cal. ka BP; 5) During early and middle Holocene, the climate combinations were warm dry and cold wet. It turned to warm and wet after 2.7 cal. ka BP.

  5. Sensitivity of sediment magnetic records to climate change during Holocene for the northern South China Sea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tingping eOuyang

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Magnetic property has been proved to be a sensitive proxy to climate change for both terrestrial and marine sediments. Based on the schedule frame established by AMS 14C dating of foraminifera, detail magnetic analyses were performed for core PC24 sediments at sampling intervals of 2 cm to discuss magnetic sensitivity of marine sediment to climate during Holocene for the northern South China Sea. The results indicated that: 1 Concentration dependent magnetic parameters are positive corresponding to variation of temperature. The frequency dependent susceptibility coefficient basically reflected the variation in humidity; 2 XARM/SIRM was more sensitive to detrital magnetite particles and SIRM/X was more effective to biogenic magnetite particles. Variations of XARM/SIRM and SIRM/X are corresponding to precipitation and temperature, respectively; 3 the Holocene Megathermal in the study area was identified as 7.5-3.4 cal. ka BP. The warmest stage of Holocene for the study area should be during 6.1 to 3.9 cal. ka BP; 4 The 8 ka cold event was characterized as cold and dry during 8.55 to 8.25 cal. ka BP; 5 During early and middle Holocene, the climate combinations were warm dry and cold wet. It turned to warm and wet after 2.7 cal. ka BP.

  6. Evaluating the sensitivity of Eurasian forest biomass to climate change using a dynamic vegetation model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shuman, J K; Shugart, H H

    2009-01-01

    Climate warming could strongly influence the structure and composition of the Eurasian boreal forest. Temperature related changes have occurred, including shifts in treelines and changes in regeneration. Dynamic vegetation models are well suited to the further exploration of the impacts that climate change may have on boreal forests. Using the individual-based gap model FAREAST, forest composition and biomass are simulated at over 2000 sites across Eurasia. Biomass output is compared to detailed forest data from a representative sample of Russian forests and a sensitivity analysis is performed to evaluate the impact that elevated temperatures and modified precipitation will have on forest biomass and composition in Eurasia. Correlations between model and forest inventory biomass are strong for several boreal tree species. A significant relationship is shown between altered precipitation and biomass. This analysis showed that a modest increase in temperature of 2 deg. C across 200 years had no significant effect on biomass; however further exploration with increased warming reflective of values measured within Siberia, or at an increased rate, are warranted. Overall, FAREAST accurately simulates forest biomass and composition at sites throughout a large geographic area with widely varying climatic conditions and produces reasonable biomass responses to simulated climatic shifts. These results indicate that this model is robust and useful in making predictions regarding the effect of future climate change on boreal forest structure across Eurasia.

  7. Tropical interannual variability in a global coupled GCM: Sensitivity to mean climate state

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moore, A.M. [Bureau of Meterology Research Centre, Melbourne, Victoria (Australia)

    1995-04-01

    A global coupled ocean-atmosphere-sea ice general circulation model is used to study interannual variability in the Tropics. Flux correction is used to control the mean climate of the coupled system, and in one configuration of the coupled model, interannual variability in the tropical Pacific is dominated by westward moving anomalies. Through a series of experiments in which the equatorial ocean wave speeds and ocean-atmosphere coupling strength are varied, it is demonstrated that these westward moving disturbances are probably some manifestation of what Neelin describes as an {open_quotes}SST mode.{close_quotes} By modifying the flux correction procedure, the mean climate of the coupled model can be changed. A fairly modest change in the mean climate is all that is required to excite eastward moving anomalies in place of the westward moving SST modes found previously. The apparent sensitivity of the nature of tropical interannual variability to the mean climate state in a coupled general circulation model such as that used here suggests that caution is advisable if we try to use such models to answer questions relating to changes in ENSO-like variability associated with global climate change. 41 refs., 23 figs., 1 tab.

  8. Sensitivity of intermittent streams to climate variations in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eng, K.

    2015-12-01

    There is growing interest in the effects of climate change on streamflows because of the potential negative effects on aquatic biota and water supplies. Previous studies of climate controls on flows have primarily focused on perennial streams, and few studies have examined the effect of climate variability on intermittent streams. Our objectives in this study were to (1) identify regions showing similar patterns of intermittency, and (2) evaluate the sensitivity of intermittent streams to historical variability in climate in the United States. This study was carried out at 265 intermittent streams by evaluating: (1) correlations among time series of flow metrics (number of zero-flow events, the average of the central 50% and largest 10% of flows) with precipitation (magnitudes, durations and intensity) and temperature, and (2) decadal changes in the seasonality and long-term trends of these flow metrics. Results identified five distinct seasonal patterns of flow intermittency: fall, fall-to-winter, non-seasonal, summer, and summer-to-winter intermittent streams. In addition, strong associations between the low-flow metrics and historical climate variability were found. However, the lack of trends in historical variations in precipitation results in no significant seasonal shifts or decade-to-decade trends in the low-flow metrics over the period of record (1950 to 2013).

  9. Sensitivity of intermittent streams to climate variations in the western United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eng, K.; Wolock, D.; Dettinger, M. D.

    2014-12-01

    There is a great deal of interest in streamflow changes caused by climate change because of the potential negative effects on aquatic biota and water supplies. Most previous studies have focused on perennial streams, and only a few studies have examined the effect of climate variability on intermittent streams. Our objective in this study was to evaluate the sensitivity of intermittent streams to historical variability in climate in the semi-arid regions of the western United States. This study was carried out at 45 intermittent streams that had a minimum of 45 years of daily-streamgage record by evaluating: (1) correlations among time series of flow metrics (number of zero-flow events, the average of the central 50% and largest 10% of flows) with climate, and (2) decadal changes in the seasonality and long-term trends of these flow metrics. Results showed strong associations between the low-flow metrics and historical changes in climate. The decadal analysis, in contrast, suggested no significant seasonal shifts or decade-to-decade trends in the low-flow metrics. The lack of trends or changes in seasonality is likely due to unchanged long-term patterns in precipitation over the time period examined.

  10. Using Impact-Relevant Sensitivities to Efficiently Evaluate and Select Climate Change Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vano, J. A.; Kim, J. B.; Rupp, D. E.; Mote, P.

    2014-12-01

    We outline an efficient approach to help researchers and natural resource managers more effectively use global climate model information in their long-term planning. The approach provides an estimate of the magnitude of change of a particular impact (e.g., summertime streamflow) from a large ensemble of climate change projections prior to detailed analysis. These estimates provide both qualitative information as an end unto itself (e.g., the distribution of future changes between emissions scenarios for the specific impact) and a judicious, defensible evaluation structure that can be used to qualitatively select a sub-set of climate models for further analysis. More specifically, the evaluation identifies global climate model scenarios that both (1) span the range of possible futures for the variable/s most important to the impact under investigation, and (2) come from global climate models that adequately simulate historical climate, providing plausible results for the future climate in the region of interest. To identify how an ecosystem process responds to projected future changes, we methodically sample, using a simple sensitivity analysis, how an impact variable (e.g., streamflow magnitude, vegetation carbon) responds locally to projected regional temperature and precipitation changes. We demonstrate our technique over the Pacific Northwest, focusing on two types of impacts each in three distinct geographic settings: (a) changes in streamflow magnitudes in critical seasons for water management in the Willamette, Yakima, and Upper Columbia River basins; and (b) changes in annual vegetation carbon in the Oregon and Washington Coast Ranges, Western Cascades, and Columbia Basin ecoregions.

  11. Sensitivity of leaf size and shape to climate: Global patterns and paleoclimatic applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peppe, D.J.; Royer, D.L.; Cariglino, B.; Oliver, S.Y.; Newman, S.; Leight, E.; Enikolopov, G.; Fernandez-Burgos, M.; Herrera, F.; Adams, J.M.; Correa, E.; Currano, E.D.; Erickson, J.M.; Hinojosa, L.F.; Hoganson, J.W.; Iglesias, A.; Jaramillo, C.A.; Johnson, K.R.; Jordan, G.J.; Kraft, N.J.B.; Lovelock, E.C.; Lusk, C.H.; Niinemets, U.; Penuelas, J.; Rapson, G.; Wing, S.L.; Wright, I.J.

    2011-01-01

    Paleobotanists have long used models based on leaf size and shape to reconstruct paleoclimate. However, most models incorporate a single variable or use traits that are not physiologically or functionally linked to climate, limiting their predictive power. Further, they often underestimate paleotemperature relative to other proxies. Here we quantify leaf-climate correlations from 92 globally distributed, climatically diverse sites, and explore potential confounding factors. Multiple linear regression models for mean annual temperature (MAT) and mean annual precipitation (MAP) are developed and applied to nine well-studied fossil floras. We find that leaves in cold climates typically have larger, more numerous teeth, and are more highly dissected. Leaf habit (deciduous vs evergreen), local water availability, and phylogenetic history all affect these relationships. Leaves in wet climates are larger and have fewer, smaller teeth. Our multivariate MAT and MAP models offer moderate improvements in precision over univariate approaches (??4.0 vs 4.8??C for MAT) and strong improvements in accuracy. For example, our provisional MAT estimates for most North American fossil floras are considerably warmer and in better agreement with independent paleoclimate evidence. Our study demonstrates that the inclusion of additional leaf traits that are functionally linked to climate improves paleoclimate reconstructions. This work also illustrates the need for better understanding of the impact of phylogeny and leaf habit on leaf-climate relationships. ?? 2011 The Authors. New Phytologist ?? 2011 New Phytologist Trust.

  12. High-Sensitivity GaN Microchemical Sensors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Son, Kyung-ah; Yang, Baohua; Liao, Anna; Moon, Jeongsun; Prokopuk, Nicholas

    2009-01-01

    Systematic studies have been performed on the sensitivity of GaN HEMT (high electron mobility transistor) sensors using various gate electrode designs and operational parameters. The results here show that a higher sensitivity can be achieved with a larger W/L ratio (W = gate width, L = gate length) at a given D (D = source-drain distance), and multi-finger gate electrodes offer a higher sensitivity than a one-finger gate electrode. In terms of operating conditions, sensor sensitivity is strongly dependent on transconductance of the sensor. The highest sensitivity can be achieved at the gate voltage where the slope of the transconductance curve is the largest. This work provides critical information about how the gate electrode of a GaN HEMT, which has been identified as the most sensitive among GaN microsensors, needs to be designed, and what operation parameters should be used for high sensitivity detection.

  13. Development of a highly sensitive lithium fluoride thermoluminescence dosimeter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moraes da Silva, Teresinha de; Campos, Leticia Lucente

    1995-01-01

    In recent times, LiF: Mg, Cu, P thermoluminescent phosphor has been increasingly in use for radiation monitoring due its high sensitivity and ease of preparation. The Dosimetric Materials Production Laboratory of IPEN, (Nuclear Energy Institute) has developed a simple method to obtain high sensitivity LiF. The preparation method is described. (author). 4 refs., 1 fig., 1 tab

  14. Triggers for a high sensitivity charm experiment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Christian, D.C.

    1994-07-01

    Any future charm experiment clearly should implement an E T trigger and a μ trigger. In order to reach the 10 8 reconstructed charm level for hadronic final states, a high quality vertex trigger will almost certainly also be necessary. The best hope for the development of an offline quality vertex trigger lies in further development of the ideas of data-driven processing pioneered by the Nevis/U. Mass. group

  15. Sensitivity of the French Alps snow cover to the variation of climatic variables

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Martin

    Full Text Available In order to study the sensitivity of snow cover to changes in meteorological variables at a regional scale, a numerical snow model and an analysis system of the meteorological conditions adapted to relief were used. This approach has been successfully tested by comparing simulated and measured snow depth at 37 sites in the French Alps during a ten year data period. Then, the sensitivity of the snow cover to a variation in climatic conditions was tested by two different methods, which led to very similar results. To assess the impact of a particular "doubled CO2" scenario, coherent perturbations were introduced in the input data of the snow model. It was found that although the impact would be very pronounced, it would also be extremely differentiated, dependent on the internal state of the snow cover. The most sensitive areas are the elevations below 2400 m, especially in the southern part of the French Alps.

  16. The importance of mixed-phase clouds for climate sensitivity in the global aerosol-climate model ECHAM6-HAM2

    OpenAIRE

    Lohmann, Ulrike; Neubauer, David

    2018-01-01

    Clouds are important in the climate system because of their large influence on the radiation budget. On the one hand, they scatter solar radiation and with that cool the climate. On the other hand, they absorb and re-emit terrestrial radiation, which causes a warming. How clouds change in a warmer climate is one of the largest uncertainties for the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). While a large spread in the cloud feedback arises from low-level clouds, it was recently shown that also mi...

  17. Mean versus extreme climate in the Mediterranean region and its sensitivity to future global warming conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paeth, H.; Hense, A. [Meteorological Inst., Univ. Bonn (Germany)

    2005-06-01

    The Mediterranean region (MTR) has been supposed to be very sensitive to changes in land surface and atmospheric greenhouse-gas (GHG) concentrations. Particularly, an intensification of climate extremes may be associated with severe socio-economic implications. Here, we present an analysis of climate mean and extreme conditions in this subtropical area based on regional climate model experiments, simulating the present-day and possible future climate. The analysis of extreme values (EVs) is based on the assumption that the extremes of daily precipitation and near-surface temperature are well fitted by the Generalized Pareto distribution (GPD). Return values of extreme daily events are determined using the method of L-moments. Particular emphasis is laid on the evaluation of the return values with respect to the uncertainty range of the estimate as derived from a Monte Carlo sampling approach. During the most recent 25 years the MTR has become dryer in spring but more humid especially in the western part in autumn and winter. At the same time, the whole region has been subject to a substantial warming. The strongest rainfall extremes are simulated in autumn over the Mediterranean Sea around Italy. Temperature extremes are most pronounced over the land masses, especially over northern Africa. Given the large uncertainty of the EV estimate, only 1-year return values are further analysed. During recent decades, statistically significant changes in extremes are only found for temperature. Future climate conditions may come along with a decrease in mean and extreme precipitation during the cold season, whereas an intensification of the hydrological cycle is predicted in summer and autumn. Temperature is predominantly affected over the Iberian Peninsula and the eastern part of the MTR. In many grid boxes, the signals are blurred out due to the large amount of uncertainty in the EV estimate. Thus, a careful analysis is required when making inferences about the future

  18. Commensurate comparisons of models with energy budget observations reveal consistent climate sensitivities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armour, K.

    2017-12-01

    Global energy budget observations have been widely used to constrain the effective, or instantaneous climate sensitivity (ICS), producing median estimates around 2°C (Otto et al. 2013; Lewis & Curry 2015). A key question is whether the comprehensive climate models used to project future warming are consistent with these energy budget estimates of ICS. Yet, performing such comparisons has proven challenging. Within models, values of ICS robustly vary over time, as surface temperature patterns evolve with transient warming, and are generally smaller than the values of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). Naively comparing values of ECS in CMIP5 models (median of about 3.4°C) to observation-based values of ICS has led to the suggestion that models are overly sensitive. This apparent discrepancy can partially be resolved by (i) comparing observation-based values of ICS to model values of ICS relevant for historical warming (Armour 2017; Proistosescu & Huybers 2017); (ii) taking into account the "efficacies" of non-CO2 radiative forcing agents (Marvel et al. 2015); and (iii) accounting for the sparseness of historical temperature observations and differences in sea-surface temperature and near-surface air temperature over the oceans (Richardson et al. 2016). Another potential source of discrepancy is a mismatch between observed and simulated surface temperature patterns over recent decades, due to either natural variability or model deficiencies in simulating historical warming patterns. The nature of the mismatch is such that simulated patterns can lead to more positive radiative feedbacks (higher ICS) relative to those engendered by observed patterns. The magnitude of this effect has not yet been addressed. Here we outline an approach to perform fully commensurate comparisons of climate models with global energy budget observations that take all of the above effects into account. We find that when apples-to-apples comparisons are made, values of ICS in models are

  19. Comparing the sensitivity of permafrost and marine gas hydrate to climate warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taylor, A.E.; Dallimore, S.R.; Hyndman, R.D.; Wright, F.

    2005-01-01

    The sensitivity of Arctic subpermafrost gas hydrate at the Mallik borehole was compared to temperate marine gas hydrate located offshore southwestern Canada. In particular, a finite element geothermal model was used to determine the sensitivity to the end of the ice age, and contemporary climate warming of a 30 m thick methane hydrate layer lying at the base of a gas hydrate stability zone prior to 13.5 kiloannum (ka) before present (BP). It was suggested that the 30 m gas-hydrate-bearing layer would have disappeared by now, according to the thermal signal alone. However, the same gas-hydrate-bearing layer underlying permafrost would persist until at least 4 ka after present, even with contemporary climate warming. The longer time for subpermafrost gas hydrate comes from the thawing pore ice at the base of permafrost, at the expense of dissociation of the deeper gas hydrate. The dissociation of underlying gas hydrate from climate surface warming is buffered by the overlying permafrost

  20. Atmospheric sulfur and climate changes: a modelling study at mid and high-southern latitudes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Castebrunet, H.

    2007-09-01

    The mid and high-southern latitudes are still marginally affected by anthropogenic sulfur emissions. They are the only regions in the world where the natural cycle of the atmospheric sulfur may still be observed. Sulfur aerosols are well-known for their radiative impact, and thus interact with climate. Climate can in turn affect atmospheric sulfur sources, distribution and chemistry. Antarctic ice cores provide information on the evolution of climate and sulfur deposition at the surface of the ice sheet at glacial-interglacial time scales. The aim of this thesis is to develop and use modeling towards a better understanding of the atmospheric sulfur cycle in antarctic and sub-antarctic regions. Ice core data are used to validate model results under glacial climate conditions. An Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) coupled to a sulfur chemistry module is used: the LMD-ZTSulfur model, version 4. An update of both the physical and chemical parts of the model. The model was first performed. The impact of there changes on modelled sulfur cycle are evaluated for modern climate. Further, boundary conditions are adapted to simulate the atmospheric circulation and sulfur cycle at the Last Glacial Maximum, approximately 20,000 years ago. In the model, sulfur is found to be highly sensitive to antarctic sea-ice coverage, which is still poorly known during the ice age. An original dataset of ice-age sea-ice coverage was developed. Its impact on the oceanic emissions of dimethyl sulfide, main precursor of sulfur aerosols at high-southern latitudes, is discussed. Using the same oceanic sulfur reservoirs as for present day climate, the model broadly reproduces the glacial deposits of sulfur aerosols on the Antarctic plateau, suggesting little impact of climate on oceanic sulfur production in the Antarctic region. Sensitivity tests were carried out to draw an up-to-date status of major uncertainties and difficulties facing future progress in understanding atmospheric

  1. Hydrologic response and watershed sensitivity to climate warming in California's Sierra Nevada.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sarah E Null

    Full Text Available This study focuses on the differential hydrologic response of individual watersheds to climate warming within the Sierra Nevada mountain region of California. We describe climate warming models for 15 west-slope Sierra Nevada watersheds in California under unimpaired conditions using WEAP21, a weekly one-dimensional rainfall-runoff model. Incremental climate warming alternatives increase air temperature uniformly by 2 degrees, 4 degrees, and 6 degrees C, but leave other climatic variables unchanged from observed values. Results are analyzed for changes in mean annual flow, peak runoff timing, and duration of low flow conditions to highlight which watersheds are most resilient to climate warming within a region, and how individual watersheds may be affected by changes to runoff quantity and timing. Results are compared with current water resources development and ecosystem services in each watershed to gain insight into how regional climate warming may affect water supply, hydropower generation, and montane ecosystems. Overall, watersheds in the northern Sierra Nevada are most vulnerable to decreased mean annual flow, southern-central watersheds are most susceptible to runoff timing changes, and the central portion of the range is most affected by longer periods with low flow conditions. Modeling results suggest the American and Mokelumne Rivers are most vulnerable to all three metrics, and the Kern River is the most resilient, in part from the high elevations of the watershed. Our research seeks to bridge information gaps between climate change modeling and regional management planning, helping to incorporate climate change into the development of regional adaptation strategies for Sierra Nevada watersheds.

  2. Low Power and High Sensitivity MOSFET-Based Pressure Sensor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Zhao-Hua; Ren Tian-Ling; Zhang Yan-Hong; Han Rui-Rui; Liu Li-Tian

    2012-01-01

    Based on the metal-oxide-semiconductor field effect transistor (MOSFET) stress sensitive phenomenon, a low power MOSFET pressure sensor is proposed. Compared with the traditional piezoresistive pressure sensor, the present pressure sensor displays high performances on sensitivity and power consumption. The sensitivity of the MOSFET sensor is raised by 87%, meanwhile the power consumption is decreased by 20%. (cross-disciplinary physics and related areas of science and technology)

  3. Energy Design Guidelines for High Performance Schools: Tropical Island Climates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2004-11-01

    Design guidelines outline high performance principles for the new or retrofit design of K-12 schools in tropical island climates. By incorporating energy improvements into construction or renovation plans, schools can reduce energy consumption and costs.

  4. Energy Design Guidelines for High Performance Schools: Tropical Island Climates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2004-11-01

    The Energy Design Guidelines for High Performance Schools--Tropical Island Climates provides school boards, administrators, and design staff with guidance to help them make informed decisions about energy and environmental issues important to school systems and communities. These design guidelines outline high performance principles for the new or retrofit design of your K-12 school in tropical island climates. By incorporating energy improvements into their construction or renovation plans, schools can significantly reduce energy consumption and costs.

  5. Key drivers and economic consequences of high-end climate scenarios: uncertainties and risks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Halsnæs, Kirsten; Kaspersen, Per Skougaard; Drews, Martin

    2015-01-01

    The consequences of high-end climate scenarios and the risks of extreme events involve a number of critical assumptions and methodological challenges related to key uncertainties in climate scenarios and modelling, impact analysis, and economics. A methodological framework for integrated analysis...... of extreme events increase beyond scaling, and in combination with economic assumptions we find a very wide range of risk estimates for urban precipitation events. A sensitivity analysis addresses 32 combinations of climate scenarios, damage cost curve approaches, and economic assumptions, including risk...... aversion and equity represented by discount rates. Major impacts of alternative assumptions are investigated. As a result, this study demonstrates that in terms of decision making the actual expectations concerning future climate scenarios and the economic assumptions applied are very important...

  6. Compositional Stability of the Bacterial Community in a Climate-Sensitive Sub-Arctic Peatland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weedon, James T; Kowalchuk, George A; Aerts, Rien; Freriks, Stef; Röling, Wilfred F M; van Bodegom, Peter M

    2017-01-01

    The climate sensitivity of microbe-mediated soil processes such as carbon and nitrogen cycling offers an interesting case for evaluating the corresponding sensitivity of microbial community composition to environmental change. Better understanding of the degree of linkage between functional and compositional stability would contribute to ongoing efforts to build mechanistic models aiming at predicting rates of microbe-mediated processes. We used an amplicon sequencing approach to test if previously observed large effects of experimental soil warming on C and N cycle fluxes (50-100% increases) in a sub-arctic Sphagnum peatland were reflected in changes in the composition of the soil bacterial community. We found that treatments that previously induced changes to fluxes did not associate with changes in the phylogenetic composition of the soil bacterial community. For both DNA- and RNA-based analyses, variation in bacterial communities could be explained by the hierarchy: spatial variation (12-15% of variance explained) > temporal variation (7-11%) > climate treatment (4-9%). We conclude that the bacterial community in this environment is stable under changing conditions, despite the previously observed sensitivity of process rates-evidence that microbe-mediated soil processes can alter without concomitant changes in bacterial communities. We propose that progress in linking soil microbial communities to ecosystem processes can be advanced by further investigating the relative importance of community composition effects versus physico-chemical factors in controlling biogeochemical process rates in different contexts.

  7. A climate sensitive model of carbon transfer through atmosphere, vegetation and soil in managed forest ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loustau, D.; Moreaux, V.; Bosc, A.; Trichet, P.; Kumari, J.; Rabemanantsoa, T.; Balesdent, J.; Jolivet, C.; Medlyn, B. E.; Cavaignac, S.; Nguyen-The, N.

    2012-12-01

    For predicting the future of the forest carbon cycle in forest ecosystems, it is necessary to account for both the climate and management impacts. Climate effects are significant not only at a short time scale but also at the temporal horizon of a forest life cycle e.g. through shift in atmospheric CO2 concentration, temperature and precipitation regimes induced by the enhanced greenhouse effect. Intensification of forest management concerns an increasing fraction of temperate and tropical forests and untouched forests represents only one third of the present forest area. Predicting tools are therefore needed to project climate and management impacts over the forest life cycle and understand the consequence of management on the forest ecosystem carbon cycle. This communication summarizes the structure, main components and properties of a carbon transfer model that describes the processes controlling the carbon cycle of managed forest ecosystems. The model, GO+, links three main components, (i) a module describing the vegetation-atmosphere mass and energy exchanges in 3D, (ii) a plant growth module and a (iii) soil carbon dynamics module in a consistent carbon scheme of transfer from atmosphere back into the atmosphere. It was calibrated and evaluated using observed data collected on coniferous and broadleaved forest stands. The model predicts the soil, water and energy balance of entire rotations of managed stands from the plantation to the final cut and according to a range of management alternatives. It accounts for the main soil and vegetation management operations such as soil preparation, understorey removal, thinnings and clearcutting. Including the available knowledge on the climatic sensitivity of biophysical and biogeochemical processes involved in atmospheric exchanges and carbon cycle of forest ecosystems, GO+ can produce long-term backward or forward simulations of forest carbon and water cycles under a range of climate and management scenarios. This

  8. Climate change impacts on high-elevation hydroelectricity in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madani, Kaveh; Guégan, Marion; Uvo, Cintia B.

    2014-03-01

    While only about 30% of California's usable water storage capacity lies at higher elevations, high-elevation (above 300 m) hydropower units generate, on average, 74% of California's in-state hydroelectricity. In general, high-elevation plants have small man-made reservoirs and rely mainly on snowpack. Their low built-in storage capacity is a concern with regard to climate warming. Snowmelt is expected to shift to earlier in the year, and the system may not be able to store sufficient water for release in high-demand periods. Previous studies have explored the climate warming effects on California's high-elevation hydropower by focusing on the supply side (exploring the effects of hydrological changes on generation and revenues) ignoring the warming effects on hydroelectricity demand and pricing. This study extends the previous work by simultaneous consideration of climate change effects on high-elevation hydropower supply and pricing in California. The California's Energy-Based Hydropower Optimization Model (EBHOM 2.0) is applied to evaluate the adaptability of California's high-elevation hydropower system to climate warming, considering the warming effects on hydroelectricity supply and pricing. The model's results relative to energy generation, energy spills, reservoir energy storage, and average shadow prices of energy generation and storage capacity expansion are examined and discussed. These results are compared with previous studies to emphasize the need to consider climate change effects on hydroelectricity demand and pricing when exploring the effects of climate change on hydropower operations.

  9. Drought timing and local climate determine the sensitivity of eastern temperate forests to drought.

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Orangeville, Loïc; Maxwell, Justin; Kneeshaw, Daniel; Pederson, Neil; Duchesne, Louis; Logan, Travis; Houle, Daniel; Arseneault, Dominique; Beier, Colin M; Bishop, Daniel A; Druckenbrod, Daniel; Fraver, Shawn; Girard, François; Halman, Joshua; Hansen, Chris; Hart, Justin L; Hartmann, Henrik; Kaye, Margot; Leblanc, David; Manzoni, Stefano; Ouimet, Rock; Rayback, Shelly; Rollinson, Christine R; Phillips, Richard P

    2018-02-20

    Projected changes in temperature and drought regime are likely to reduce carbon (C) storage in forests, thereby amplifying rates of climate change. While such reductions are often presumed to be greatest in semi-arid forests that experience widespread tree mortality, the consequences of drought may also be important in temperate mesic forests of Eastern North America (ENA) if tree growth is significantly curtailed by drought. Investigations of the environmental conditions that determine drought sensitivity are critically needed to accurately predict ecosystem feedbacks to climate change. We matched site factors with the growth responses to drought of 10,753 trees across mesic forests of ENA, representing 24 species and 346 stands, to determine the broad-scale drivers of drought sensitivity for the dominant trees in ENA. Here we show that two factors-the timing of drought, and the atmospheric demand for water (i.e., local potential evapotranspiration; PET)-are stronger drivers of drought sensitivity than soil and stand characteristics. Drought-induced reductions in tree growth were greatest when the droughts occurred during early-season peaks in radial growth, especially for trees growing in the warmest, driest regions (i.e., highest PET). Further, mean species trait values (rooting depth and ψ 50 ) were poor predictors of drought sensitivity, as intraspecific variation in sensitivity was equal to or greater than interspecific variation in 17 of 24 species. From a general circulation model ensemble, we find that future increases in early-season PET may exacerbate these effects, and potentially offset gains in C uptake and storage in ENA owing to other global change factors. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  10. Allowable CO2 concentrations under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change as a function of the climate sensitivity probability distribution function

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harvey, L D Danny

    2007-01-01

    Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) calls for stabilization of greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations at levels that prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference (DAI) in the climate system. Until recently, the consensus viewpoint was that the climate sensitivity (the global mean equilibrium warming for a doubling of atmospheric CO 2 concentration) was 'likely' to fall between 1.5 and 4.5 K. However, a number of recent studies have generated probability distribution functions (pdfs) for climate sensitivity with the 95th percentile of the expected climate sensitivity as large as 10 K, while some studies suggest that the climate sensitivity is likely to fall in the lower half of the long-standing 1.5-4.5 K range. This paper examines the allowable CO 2 concentration as a function of the 95th percentile of the climate sensitivity pdf (ranging from 2 to 8 K) and for the following additional assumptions: (i) the 50th percentile for the pdf of the minimum sustained global mean warming that causes unacceptable harm equal to 1.5 or 2.5 K; and (ii) 1%, 5% or 10% allowable risks of unacceptable harm. For a 1% risk tolerance and the more stringent harm-threshold pdf, the allowable CO 2 concentration ranges from 323 to 268 ppmv as the 95th percentile of the climate sensitivity pdf increases from 2 to 8 K, while for a 10% risk tolerance and the less stringent harm-threshold pdf, the allowable CO 2 concentration ranges from 531 to 305 ppmv. In both cases it is assumed that non-CO 2 GHG radiative forcing can be reduced to half of its present value, otherwise; the allowable CO 2 concentration is even smaller. Accounting for the fact that the CO 2 concentration will gradually fall if emissions are reduced to zero, and that peak realized warming will then be less than the peak equilibrium warming (related to peak radiative forcing) allows the CO 2 concentration to peak at 10-40 ppmv higher than the limiting values given above for a climate

  11. Data Descriptor: TerraClimate, a high-resolution global dataset of monthly climate and climatic water balance from 1958-2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    John T. Abatzoglou; Solomon Z. Dobrowski; Sean A. Parks; Katherine C. Hegewisch

    2018-01-01

    We present TerraClimate, a dataset of high-spatial resolution (1/24°, ~4-km) monthly climate and climatic water balance for global terrestrial surfaces from 1958–2015. TerraClimate uses climatically aided interpolation, combining high-spatial resolution climatological normals from the WorldClim dataset, with coarser resolution time varying (i.e., monthly) data from...

  12. Central Sensitization and Perceived Indoor Climate among Workers with Chronic Upper-Limb Pain

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sundstrup, Emil; Jakobsen, Markus D; Brandt, Mikkel

    2015-01-01

    threshold (PPT) was measured in muscles of the arm, shoulder, and lower leg. Cross-sectional associations were determined using general linear models controlled for age, smoking, and job position. The number of indoor climate complaints was twice as high among workers with chronic pain compared with pain...

  13. Central sensitization and perceived indoor climate among workers with chronic upper-limb pain

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sundstrup, Emil; Jakobsen, Markus D.; Brandt, Mikkel

    2015-01-01

    threshold (PPT) was measured in muscles of the arm, shoulder, and lower leg. Cross-sectional associations were determined using general linear models controlled for age, smoking, and job position. The number of indoor climate complaints was twice as high among workers with chronic pain compared with pain...

  14. A local scale assessment of the climate change sensitivity of snow in Pyrenean ski resorts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pesado, Cristina; Pons, Marc; Vilella, Marc; López-Moreno, Juan Ignacio

    2016-04-01

    The Pyrenees host one of the largest ski area in Europe after the Alps that encompasses the mountain area of the south of France, the north of Spain and the small country of Andorra. In this region, winter tourism is one of the main source of income and driving force of local development on these mountain communities. However, this activity was identified as one of the most vulnerable to a future climate change due to the projected decrease of natural snow and snowmaking capacity. However, within the same ski resorts different areas showed to have a very different vulnerability within the same resort based on the geographic features of the area and the technical management of the slopes. Different areas inside a same ski resort could have very different vulnerability to future climate change based on aspect, steepness or elevation. Furthermore, the technical management of ski resorts, such as snowmaking and grooming were identified to have a significant impact on the response of the snowpack in a warmer climate. In this line, two different ski resorts were deeply analyzed taken into account both local geographical features as well as the effect of the technical management of the runs. Principal Component Analysis was used to classify the main areas of the resort based on the geographic features (elevation, aspect and steepness) and identify the main representative areas with different local features. Snow energy and mass balance was simulated in the different representative areas using the Cold Regions Hydrological Model (CRHM) assuming different magnitudes of climate warming (increases of 2°C and 4°C in the mean winter temperature) both in natural conditions and assuming technical management of the slopes. Theses first results showed the different sensitivity and vulnerability to climate changes based on the local geography of the resort and the management of the ski runs, showing the importance to include these variables when analyzing the local vulnerability

  15. Quantitative Study of Green Area for Climate Sensitive Terraced Housing Area Design in Malaysia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yeo, O T S; Saito, K; Said, I

    2014-01-01

    Neighbourhood plays a significant role in peoples' daily lives. Nowadays, terraced housing is common in Malaysia, and green areas in the neighborhood are not used to their maximum. The aim of the research is to quantify the types of green area that are most efficient for cooling the environment for thermal comfort and mitigation of Urban Heat Island. Spatial and environmental inputs are manipulated for the simulation using Geographic Information System (GIS) integrated with computational microclimate simulation. The outcome of this research is a climate sensitive housing environment model framework on the green area to solve the problem of Urban Heat Island

  16. Novel charge sensitive preamplifier without high-value feedback resistor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xi Deming

    1992-01-01

    A novel charge sensitive preamplifier is introduced. The method of removing the high value feedback resistor, the circuit design and analysis are described. A practical circuit and its measured performances are provided

  17. Higher climate warming sensitivity of Siberian larch in small than large forest islands in the fragmented Mongolian forest steppe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khansaritoreh, Elmira; Dulamsuren, Choimaa; Klinge, Michael; Ariunbaatar, Tumurbaatar; Bat-Enerel, Banzragch; Batsaikhan, Ganbaatar; Ganbaatar, Kherlenchimeg; Saindovdon, Davaadorj; Yeruult, Yolk; Tsogtbaatar, Jamsran; Tuya, Daramragchaa; Leuschner, Christoph; Hauck, Markus

    2017-09-01

    Forest fragmentation has been found to affect biodiversity and ecosystem functioning in multiple ways. We asked whether forest size and isolation in fragmented woodlands influences the climate warming sensitivity of tree growth in the southern boreal forest of the Mongolian Larix sibirica forest steppe, a naturally fragmented woodland embedded in grassland, which is highly affected by warming, drought, and increasing anthropogenic forest destruction in recent time. We examined the influence of stand size and stand isolation on the growth performance of larch in forests of four different size classes located in a woodland-dominated forest-steppe area and small forest patches in a grassland-dominated area. We found increasing climate sensitivity and decreasing first-order autocorrelation of annual stemwood increment with decreasing stand size. Stemwood increment increased with previous year's June and August precipitation in the three smallest forest size classes, but not in the largest forests. In the grassland-dominated area, the tree growth dependence on summer rainfall was highest. Missing ring frequency has strongly increased since the 1970s in small, but not in large forests. In the grassland-dominated area, the increase was much greater than in the forest-dominated landscape. Forest regeneration decreased with decreasing stand size and was scarce or absent in the smallest forests. Our results suggest that the larch trees in small and isolated forest patches are far more susceptible to climate warming than in large continuous forests pointing to a grim future for the forests in this strongly warming region of the boreal forest that is also under high land use pressure. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  18. Different parts, different stories: climate sensitivity of growth is stronger in root collars vs. stems in tundra shrubs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ropars, Pascale; Angers-Blondin, Sandra; Gagnon, Marianne; Myers-Smith, Isla H; Lévesque, Esther; Boudreau, Stéphane

    2017-08-01

    Shrub densification has been widely reported across the circumpolar arctic and subarctic biomes in recent years. Long-term analyses based on dendrochronological techniques applied to shrubs have linked this phenomenon to climate change. However, the multi-stemmed structure of shrubs makes them difficult to sample and therefore leads to non-uniform sampling protocols among shrub ecologists, who will favor either root collars or stems to conduct dendrochronological analyses. Through a comparative study of the use of root collars and stems of Betula glandulosa, a common North American shrub species, we evaluated the relative sensitivity of each plant part to climate variables and assessed whether this sensitivity is consistent across three different types of environments in northwestern Québec, Canada (terrace, hilltop and snowbed). We found that root collars had greater sensitivity to climate than stems and that these differences were maintained across the three types of environments. Growth at the root collar was best explained by spring precipitation and summer temperature, whereas stem growth showed weak and inconsistent responses to climate variables. Moreover, sensitivity to climate was not consistent among plant parts, as individuals having climate-sensitive root collars did not tend to have climate-sensitive stems. These differences in sensitivity of shrub parts to climate highlight the complexity of resource allocation in multi-stemmed plants. Whereas stem initiation and growth are driven by microenvironmental variables such as light availability and competition, root collars integrate the growth of all plant parts instead, rendering them less affected by mechanisms such as competition and more responsive to signals of global change. Although further investigations are required to determine the degree to which these findings are generalizable across the tundra biome, our results indicate that consistency and caution in the choice of plant parts are a key

  19. Viewpoint On the Climate Change Effects of High Oil Prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vielle, M.; Viguier, L.

    2005-11-01

    Some commentators claim that the oil market has achieved within a few months what international bureaucrats have struggled to obtain in a decade of international climate negotiations. The fallacy of the oil price argument is that substitutions and income effects that would result from higher oil prices are not considered. Using a computable general equilibrium model, we show that high oil prices cannot serve as substitutes for effective climate policies.

  20. Critical Climate: Relations among Sexual Harassment, Climate, and Outcomes for High School Girls and Boys

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ormerod, Alayne J.; Collinsworth, Linda L.; Perry, Leigh Ann

    2008-01-01

    This study examined the relationships among peer-to-peer sexual harassment, school climate, adult-to-student harassment, and outcomes (psychological and physical well-being; school withdrawal and safety) for high school girls (n = 310) and boys (n = 259) recruited from seven public high schools in a Midwestern state. More frequent, severe peer…

  1. A high-sensitivity neutron counter and waste-drum counting with the high-sensitivity neutron instrument

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hankins, D.E.; Thorngate, J.H.

    1993-04-01

    At Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), a highly sensitive neutron counter was developed that can detect and accurately measure the neutrons from small quantities of plutonium or from other low-level neutron sources. This neutron counter was originally designed to survey waste containers leaving the Plutonium Facility. However, it has proven to be useful in other research applications requiring a high-sensitivity neutron instrument

  2. Climate effects of a hypothetical regional nuclear war: Sensitivity to emission duration and particle composition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pausata, Francesco S. R.; Lindvall, Jenny; Ekman, Annica M. L.; Svensson, Gunilla

    2016-11-01

    Here, we use a coupled atmospheric-ocean-aerosol model to investigate the plume development and climate effects of the smoke generated by fires following a regional nuclear war between emerging third-world nuclear powers. We simulate a standard scenario where 5 Tg of black carbon (BC) is emitted over 1 day in the upper troposphere-lower stratosphere. However, it is likely that the emissions from the fires ignited by bomb detonations include a substantial amount of particulate organic matter (POM) and that they last more than 1 day. We therefore test the sensitivity of the aerosol plume and climate system to the BC/POM ratio (1:3, 1:9) and to the emission length (1 day, 1 week, 1 month). We find that in general, an emission length of 1 month substantially reduces the cooling compared to the 1-day case, whereas taking into account POM emissions notably increases the cooling and the reduction of precipitation associated with the nuclear war during the first year following the detonation. Accounting for POM emissions increases the particle size in the short-emission-length scenarios (1 day/1 week), reducing the residence time of the injected particle. While the initial cooling is more intense when including POM emission, the long-lasting effects, while still large, may be less extreme compared to the BC-only case. Our study highlights that the emission altitude reached by the plume is sensitive to both the particle type emitted by the fires and the emission duration. Consequently, the climate effects of a nuclear war are strongly dependent on these parameters.

  3. The behaviour of long-lived redox sensitive radionuclides in soil-plant system during the process of climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Semioshkina, N.; Staudt, C.; Kaiser, C. [Helmhotz Zetrum Muenchen (Germany); Proehl, G. [International Atomic Energy Agency - IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)); Noseck, U.; Fahrenholz, C. [Gesellschaft fuer Anlagen- und Reaktorsicherheit - GRS (Germany)

    2014-07-01

    One important aspect of climate changes for the long-term safety assessment of radioactive waste repositories is its impact on exposure pathways for humans in the future, which are dependent on the environmental characteristics mentioned. It is conceivable that effects or processes occurring during climate changes lead to an increased accumulation and/or release of radionuclides in the biosphere resulting in higher doses compared to that calculated for discrete climate states. In order to shed light on this question key processes are identified which might lead to such an increased accumulation and/or release of radionuclides. The transition from one climate to another can cause changes in the physicochemical composition of radionuclides: some of them may become more available for plant uptake and due to this, their activity concentration in the plants increases. Other radionuclides maybe stronger bound to soil and their activity concentration in plants decreases. Such changes might also cause remobilization of radionuclides from localised areas with contaminated sediments, their re-suspension and transfer to the surrounding areas. A suitable illustration of the processes related to the changes of the redox potential is the examination of a dry lake or fen bed for agricultural purposes as pasture or ameliorated pasture. In these cases the accumulation of radionuclides in the lake or fen sediment is followed by their release and increasing mobility after agricultural processing of the dry bed of lake or fen. Ploughing of the soil leads to increased supply of oxygen to previous anoxic soil layers causing an increase in redox potential. The presented model describes a scenario, where the land is initially very humid and very low Eh-values cause high sorption and accumulation of radionuclides in soil particles. Then this land is dried out, the redox potential increases and redox sensitive radionuclides change their speciation and their behaviour. Such processes might

  4. Climate Dynamics and Hysteresis at Low and High Obliquity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colose, C.; Del Genio, A. D.; Way, M.

    2017-12-01

    We explore the large-scale climate dynamics at low and high obliquity for an Earth-like planet using the ROCKE-3D (Resolving Orbital and Climate Keys of Earth and Extraterrestrial Environments with Dynamics) 3-D General Circulation model being developed at NASA GISS as part of the Nexus for Exoplanet System Science (NExSS) initiative. We highlight the role of ocean heat storage and transport in determining the seasonal cycle at high obliquity, and describe the large-scale circulation and resulting regional climate patterns using both aquaplanet and Earth topographical boundary conditions. Finally, we contrast the hysteresis structure to varying CO2 concentration for a low and high obliquity planet near the outer edge of the habitable zone. We discuss the prospects for habitability for a high obliquity planet susceptible to global glaciation.

  5. Aboveground allometric models for freeze-affected black mangroves (Avicennia germinans): equations for a climate sensitive mangrove-marsh ecotone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osland, Michael J.; Day, Richard H.; Larriviere, Jack C.; From, Andrew S.

    2014-01-01

    Across the globe, species distributions are changing in response to climate change and land use change. In parts of the southeastern United States, climate change is expected to result in the poleward range expansion of black mangroves (Avicennia germinans) at the expense of some salt marsh vegetation. The morphology of A. germinans at its northern range limit is more shrub-like than in tropical climes in part due to the aboveground structural damage and vigorous multi-stem regrowth triggered by extreme winter temperatures. In this study, we developed aboveground allometric equations for freeze-affected black mangroves which can be used to quantify: (1) total aboveground biomass; (2) leaf biomass; (3) stem plus branch biomass; and (4) leaf area. Plant volume (i.e., a combination of crown area and plant height) was selected as the optimal predictor of the four response variables. We expect that our simple measurements and equations can be adapted for use in other mangrove ecosystems located in abiotic settings that result in mangrove individuals with dwarf or shrub-like morphologies including oligotrophic and arid environments. Many important ecological functions and services are affected by changes in coastal wetland plant community structure and productivity including carbon storage, nutrient cycling, coastal protection, recreation, fish and avian habitat, and ecosystem response to sea level rise and extreme climatic events. Coastal scientists in the southeastern United States can use the identified allometric equations, in combination with easily obtained and non-destructive plant volume measurements, to better quantify and monitor ecological change within the dynamic, climate sensitive, and highly-productive mangrove-marsh ecotone.

  6. Adaptive population divergence and directional gene flow across steep elevational gradients in a climate-sensitive mammal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waterhouse, Matthew D; P Erb, Liesl; Beever, Erik A; Russello, Michael A

    2018-04-25

    The ecological effects of climate change have been shown in most major taxonomic groups; however, the evolutionary consequences are less well-documented. Adaptation to new climatic conditions offers a potential long-term mechanism for species to maintain viability in rapidly changing environments, but mammalian examples remain scarce. The American pika (Ochotona princeps) has been impacted by recent climate-associated extirpations and range-wide reductions in population sizes, establishing it as a sentinel mammalian species for climate change. To investigate evidence for local adaptation and reconstruct patterns of genomic diversity and gene flow across rapidly changing environments, we used a space-for-time design and restriction site-associated DNA sequencing to genotype American pikas along two steep elevational gradients at 30,966 SNPs and employed independent outlier detection methods that scanned for genotype-environment associations. We identified 338 outlier SNPs detected by two separate analyses and/or replicated in both transects, several of which were annotated to genes involved in metabolic function and oxygen transport. Additionally, we found evidence of directional gene flow primarily downslope from high-elevation populations, along with reduced gene flow at outlier loci. If this trend continues, elevational range contractions in American pikas will likely be from local extirpation rather than upward movement of low-elevation individuals; this, in turn, could limit the potential for adaptation within this landscape. These findings are of particular relevance for future conservation and management of American pikas and other elevationally-restricted, thermally-sensitive species. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

  7. Aboveground allometric models for freeze-affected black mangroves (Avicennia germinans): equations for a climate sensitive mangrove-marsh ecotone.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osland, Michael J; Day, Richard H; Larriviere, Jack C; From, Andrew S

    2014-01-01

    Across the globe, species distributions are changing in response to climate change and land use change. In parts of the southeastern United States, climate change is expected to result in the poleward range expansion of black mangroves (Avicennia germinans) at the expense of some salt marsh vegetation. The morphology of A. germinans at its northern range limit is more shrub-like than in tropical climes in part due to the aboveground structural damage and vigorous multi-stem regrowth triggered by extreme winter temperatures. In this study, we developed aboveground allometric equations for freeze-affected black mangroves which can be used to quantify: (1) total aboveground biomass; (2) leaf biomass; (3) stem plus branch biomass; and (4) leaf area. Plant volume (i.e., a combination of crown area and plant height) was selected as the optimal predictor of the four response variables. We expect that our simple measurements and equations can be adapted for use in other mangrove ecosystems located in abiotic settings that result in mangrove individuals with dwarf or shrub-like morphologies including oligotrophic and arid environments. Many important ecological functions and services are affected by changes in coastal wetland plant community structure and productivity including carbon storage, nutrient cycling, coastal protection, recreation, fish and avian habitat, and ecosystem response to sea level rise and extreme climatic events. Coastal scientists in the southeastern United States can use the identified allometric equations, in combination with easily obtained and non-destructive plant volume measurements, to better quantify and monitor ecological change within the dynamic, climate sensitive, and highly-productive mangrove-marsh ecotone.

  8. Aboveground allometric models for freeze-affected black mangroves (Avicennia germinans: equations for a climate sensitive mangrove-marsh ecotone.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael J Osland

    Full Text Available Across the globe, species distributions are changing in response to climate change and land use change. In parts of the southeastern United States, climate change is expected to result in the poleward range expansion of black mangroves (Avicennia germinans at the expense of some salt marsh vegetation. The morphology of A. germinans at its northern range limit is more shrub-like than in tropical climes in part due to the aboveground structural damage and vigorous multi-stem regrowth triggered by extreme winter temperatures. In this study, we developed aboveground allometric equations for freeze-affected black mangroves which can be used to quantify: (1 total aboveground biomass; (2 leaf biomass; (3 stem plus branch biomass; and (4 leaf area. Plant volume (i.e., a combination of crown area and plant height was selected as the optimal predictor of the four response variables. We expect that our simple measurements and equations can be adapted for use in other mangrove ecosystems located in abiotic settings that result in mangrove individuals with dwarf or shrub-like morphologies including oligotrophic and arid environments. Many important ecological functions and services are affected by changes in coastal wetland plant community structure and productivity including carbon storage, nutrient cycling, coastal protection, recreation, fish and avian habitat, and ecosystem response to sea level rise and extreme climatic events. Coastal scientists in the southeastern United States can use the identified allometric equations, in combination with easily obtained and non-destructive plant volume measurements, to better quantify and monitor ecological change within the dynamic, climate sensitive, and highly-productive mangrove-marsh ecotone.

  9. Sensitivity of UK butterflies to local climatic extremes: which life stages are most at risk?

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDermott Long, Osgur; Warren, Rachel; Price, Jeff; Brereton, Tom M; Botham, Marc S; Franco, Aldina M A

    2017-01-01

    There is growing recognition as to the importance of extreme climatic events (ECEs) in determining changes in species populations. In fact, it is often the extent of climate variability that determines a population's ability to persist at a given site. This study examined the impact of ECEs on the resident UK butterfly species (n = 41) over a 37-year period. The study investigated the sensitivity of butterflies to four extremes (drought, extreme precipitation, extreme heat and extreme cold), identified at the site level, across each species' life stages. Variations in the vulnerability of butterflies at the site level were also compared based on three life-history traits (voltinism, habitat requirement and range). This is the first study to examine the effects of ECEs at the site level across all life stages of a butterfly, identifying sensitive life stages and unravelling the role life-history traits play in species sensitivity to ECEs. Butterfly population changes were found to be primarily driven by temperature extremes. Extreme heat was detrimental during overwintering periods and beneficial during adult periods and extreme cold had opposite impacts on both of these life stages. Previously undocumented detrimental effects were identified for extreme precipitation during the pupal life stage for univoltine species. Generalists were found to have significantly more negative associations with ECEs than specialists. With future projections of warmer, wetter winters and more severe weather events, UK butterflies could come under severe pressure given the findings of this study. © 2016 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2016 British Ecological Society.

  10. Authoritative School Climate and High School Dropout Rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, Yuane; Konold, Timothy R.; Cornell, Dewey

    2016-01-01

    This study tested the association between school-wide measures of an authoritative school climate and high school dropout rates in a statewide sample of 315 high schools. Regression models at the school level of analysis used teacher and student measures of disciplinary structure, student support, and academic expectations to predict overall high…

  11. Achieving sensitive, high-resolution laser spectroscopy at CRIS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Groote, R. P. de [Instituut voor Kern- en Stralingsfysica, KU Leuven (Belgium); Lynch, K. M., E-mail: kara.marie.lynch@cern.ch [EP Department, CERN, ISOLDE (Switzerland); Wilkins, S. G. [The University of Manchester, School of Physics and Astronomy (United Kingdom); Collaboration: the CRIS collaboration

    2017-11-15

    The Collinear Resonance Ionization Spectroscopy (CRIS) experiment, located at the ISOLDE facility, has recently performed high-resolution laser spectroscopy, with linewidths down to 20 MHz. In this article, we present the modifications to the beam line and the newly-installed laser systems that have made sensitive, high-resolution measurements possible. Highlights of recent experimental campaigns are presented.

  12. Sensitivity of MENA Tropical Rainbelt to Dust Shortwave Absorption: A High Resolution AGCM Experiment

    KAUST Repository

    Bangalath, Hamza Kunhu

    2016-06-13

    Shortwave absorption is one of the most important, but the most uncertain, components of direct radiative effect by mineral dust. It has a broad range of estimates from different observational and modeling studies and there is no consensus on the strength of absorption. To elucidate the sensitivity of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) tropical summer rainbelt to a plausible range of uncertainty in dust shortwave absorption, AMIP-style global high resolution (25 km) simulations are conducted with and without dust, using the High-Resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM). Simulations with dust comprise three different cases by assuming dust as a very efficient, standard and inefficient absorber. Inter-comparison of these simulations shows that the response of the MENA tropical rainbelt is extremely sensitive to the strength of shortwave absorption. Further analyses reveal that the sensitivity of the rainbelt stems from the sensitivity of the multi-scale circulations that define the rainbelt. The maximum response and sensitivity are predicted over the northern edge of the rainbelt, geographically over Sahel. The sensitivity of the responses over the Sahel, especially that of precipitation, is comparable to the mean state. Locally, the response in precipitation reaches up to 50% of the mean, while dust is assumed to be a very efficient absorber. Taking into account that Sahel has a very high climate variability and is extremely vulnerable to changes in precipitation, the present study suggests the importance of reducing uncertainty in dust shortwave absorption for a better simulation and interpretation of the Sahel climate.

  13. Sensitivity of MENA Tropical Rainbelt to Dust Shortwave Absorption: A High Resolution AGCM Experiment

    KAUST Repository

    Bangalath, Hamza Kunhu; Stenchikov, Georgiy L.

    2016-01-01

    Shortwave absorption is one of the most important, but the most uncertain, components of direct radiative effect by mineral dust. It has a broad range of estimates from different observational and modeling studies and there is no consensus on the strength of absorption. To elucidate the sensitivity of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) tropical summer rainbelt to a plausible range of uncertainty in dust shortwave absorption, AMIP-style global high resolution (25 km) simulations are conducted with and without dust, using the High-Resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM). Simulations with dust comprise three different cases by assuming dust as a very efficient, standard and inefficient absorber. Inter-comparison of these simulations shows that the response of the MENA tropical rainbelt is extremely sensitive to the strength of shortwave absorption. Further analyses reveal that the sensitivity of the rainbelt stems from the sensitivity of the multi-scale circulations that define the rainbelt. The maximum response and sensitivity are predicted over the northern edge of the rainbelt, geographically over Sahel. The sensitivity of the responses over the Sahel, especially that of precipitation, is comparable to the mean state. Locally, the response in precipitation reaches up to 50% of the mean, while dust is assumed to be a very efficient absorber. Taking into account that Sahel has a very high climate variability and is extremely vulnerable to changes in precipitation, the present study suggests the importance of reducing uncertainty in dust shortwave absorption for a better simulation and interpretation of the Sahel climate.

  14. Enhanced sensitivity of a mountain bog to climate change as a delayed effect of road construction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. von Sengbusch

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Trees of Pinus rotundata (bog pine characterise many bogs in the mid-altitude mountains of central Europe (Switzerland, East and South Germany, Czech Republic. The research described here focuses on recent changes in the growth of bog pine on the Ennersbacher Moor, a mountain mire in the Black Forest (south-west Germany. An increase in the cover of bog pine is usually caused by drainage and subsequent drawdown of the water table. However, this bog has not been drained or directly disturbed in any other way. One possible explanation is that a road constructed in 1983 along one margin of the bog has diverted part of its water supply. Even though the road was designed to conduct potentially salt-contaminated drainage water away from the bog, its construction did not cause an immediate vegetation response in the 1980s and 1990s. Therefore, I hypothesise that it enhanced the sensitivity of the bog to climatic stress, predisposing it to a succession that was eventually triggered by a series of drought years in 2009–2011. Data collected near the centre of the bog over the period 1998–2014 indicate not only a distinct change in the relationship between height and trunk circumference of the trees, but also an increase of dwarf shrub cover and changes in the composition of Sphagnum communities. Although the pH of near-surface water may have increased slightly over this period, pH and EC values remain within typical ranges for raised bogs in the Black Forest. Examination of peat profiles reveals that the peat is more highly humified now than it was in 2002, and water table records from 2012–2014 show a greater amplitude of fluctuation than water table data collected in 1998–2001. Even though its mean level is only 105 mm below the ground surface, the water table is now observed to fall rapidly to depths of at least 350 mm during both wet and dry summers. Mapping surface (mesotopography and flow lines from the adjacent slope shows that the

  15. Sensitivity of hydrological modeling to meteorological data and implications for climate change studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roy, L.G.; Roy, R.; Desrochers, G.E.; Vaillancourt, C.; Chartier, I.

    2008-01-01

    There are uncertainties associated with the use of hydrological models. This study aims to analyse one source of uncertainty associated with hydrological modeling, particularly in the context of climate change studies on water resources. Additional intent of this study is to compare the ability of some meteorological data sources, used in conjunction with an hydrological model, to reproduce the hydrologic regime of a watershed. A case study on a watershed of south-western Quebec, Canada using five different sources of meteorological data as input to an offline hydrological model are presented in this paper. Data used came from weather stations, NCEP reanalysis, ERA40 reanalysis and two Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) runs driven by NCEP and ERA40 reanalysis, providing atmospheric driving boundary conditions to this limited-area climate model. To investigate the sensitivity of simulated streamflow to different sources of meteorological data, we first calibrated the hydrological model with each of the meteorological data sets over the 1961-1980 period. The five different sets of parameters of the hydrological model were then used to simulate streamflow of the 1981-2000 validation period with the five meteorological data sets as inputs. The 25 simulated streamflow series have been compared to the observed streamflow of the watershed. The five meteorological data sets do not have the same ability, when used with the hydrological model, to reproduce streamflow. Our results show also that the hydrological model parameters used may have an important influence on results such as water balance, but it is linked with the differences that may have in the characteristics of the meteorological data used. For climate change impacts assessments on water resources, we have found that there is an uncertainty associated with the meteorological data used to calibrate the model. For expected changes on mean annual flows of the Chateauguay River, our results vary from a small

  16. Climate SPHINX: High-resolution present-day and future climate simulations with an improved representation of small-scale variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davini, Paolo; von Hardenberg, Jost; Corti, Susanna; Subramanian, Aneesh; Weisheimer, Antje; Christensen, Hannah; Juricke, Stephan; Palmer, Tim

    2016-04-01

    The PRACE Climate SPHINX project investigates the sensitivity of climate simulations to model resolution and stochastic parameterization. The EC-Earth Earth-System Model is used to explore the impact of stochastic physics in 30-years climate integrations as a function of model resolution (from 80km up to 16km for the atmosphere). The experiments include more than 70 simulations in both a historical scenario (1979-2008) and a climate change projection (2039-2068), using RCP8.5 CMIP5 forcing. A total amount of 20 million core hours will be used at end of the project (March 2016) and about 150 TBytes of post-processed data will be available to the climate community. Preliminary results show a clear improvement in the representation of climate variability over the Euro-Atlantic following resolution increase. More specifically, the well-known atmospheric blocking negative bias over Europe is definitely resolved. High resolution runs also show improved fidelity in representation of tropical variability - such as the MJO and its propagation - over the low resolution simulations. It is shown that including stochastic parameterization in the low resolution runs help to improve some of the aspects of the MJO propagation further. These findings show the importance of representing the impact of small scale processes on the large scale climate variability either explicitly (with high resolution simulations) or stochastically (in low resolution simulations).

  17. Retinal sensitivity and choroidal thickness in high myopia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaben, Ahmad; Zapata, Miguel Á; Garcia-Arumi, Jose

    2015-03-01

    To estimate the association between choroidal thickness in the macular area and retinal sensitivity in eyes with high myopia. This investigation was a transversal study of patients with high myopia, all of whom had their retinal sensitivity measured with macular integrity assessment microperimetry. The choroidal thicknesses in the macular area were then measured by optical coherence tomography, and statistical correlations between their functionality and the anatomical structuralism, as assessed by both types of measurements, were analyzed. Ninety-six eyes from 77 patients with high myopia were studied. The patients had a mean age ± standard deviation of 38.9 ± 13.2 years, with spherical equivalent values ranging from -6.00 diopter to -20.00 diopter (8.74 ± 2.73 diopter). The mean central choroidal thickness was 159.00 ± 50.57. The mean choroidal thickness was directly correlated with sensitivity (r = 0.306; P = 0.004) and visual acuity but indirectly correlated with the spherical equivalent values and patient age. The mean sensitivity was not significantly correlated with the macular foveal thickness (r = -0.174; P = 0.101) or with the overall macular thickness (r = 0.103; P = 0.334); furthermore, the mean sensitivity was significantly correlated with visual acuity (r = 0.431; P < 0.001) and the spherical equivalent values (r = -0.306; P = 0.003). Retinal sensitivity in highly myopic eyes is directly correlated with choroidal thickness and does not seem to be associated with retinal thickness. Thus, in patients with high myopia, accurate measurements of choroidal thickness may provide more accurate information about this pathologic condition because choroidal thickness correlates to a greater degree with the functional parameters, patient age, and spherical equivalent values.

  18. Millennium-scale crossdating and inter-annual climate sensitivities of standing California redwoods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carroll, Allyson L; Sillett, Stephen C; Kramer, Russell D

    2014-01-01

    Extremely decay-resistant wood and fire-resistant bark allow California's redwoods to accumulate millennia of annual growth rings that can be useful in biological research. Whereas tree rings of Sequoiadendron giganteum (SEGI) helped formalize the study of dendrochronology and the principle of crossdating, those of Sequoia sempervirens (SESE) have proven much more difficult to decipher, greatly limiting dendroclimatic and other investigations of this species. We overcame these problems by climbing standing trees and coring trunks at multiple heights in 14 old-growth forest locations across California. Overall, we sampled 1,466 series with 483,712 annual rings from 120 trees and were able to crossdate 83% of SESE compared to 99% of SEGI rings. Standard and residual tree-ring chronologies spanning up to 1,685 years for SESE and 1,538 years for SEGI were created for each location to evaluate crossdating and to examine correlations between annual growth and climate. We used monthly values of temperature, precipitation, and drought severity as well as summer cloudiness to quantify potential drivers of inter-annual growth variation over century-long time series at each location. SESE chronologies exhibited a latitudinal gradient of climate sensitivities, contrasting cooler northern rainforests and warmer, drier southern forests. Radial growth increased with decreasing summer cloudiness in northern rainforests and a central SESE location. The strongest dendroclimatic relationship occurred in our southernmost SESE location, where radial growth correlated negatively with dry summer conditions and exhibited responses to historic fires. SEGI chronologies showed negative correlations with June temperature and positive correlations with previous October precipitation. More work is needed to understand quantitative relationships between SEGI radial growth and moisture availability, particularly snowmelt. Tree-ring chronologies developed here for both redwood species have

  19. Global terrestrial isoprene emission models: sensitivity to variability in climate and vegetation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Arneth

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Due to its effects on the atmospheric lifetime of methane, the burdens of tropospheric ozone and growth of secondary organic aerosol, isoprene is central among the biogenic compounds that need to be taken into account for assessment of anthropogenic air pollution-climate change interactions. Lack of process-understanding regarding leaf isoprene production as well as of suitable observations to constrain and evaluate regional or global simulation results add large uncertainties to past, present and future emissions estimates. Focusing on contemporary climate conditions, we compare three global isoprene models that differ in their representation of vegetation and isoprene emission algorithm. We specifically aim to investigate the between- and within model variation that is introduced by varying some of the models' main features, and to determine which spatial and/or temporal features are robust between models and different experimental set-ups. In their individual standard configurations, the models broadly agree with respect to the chief isoprene sources and emission seasonality, with maximum monthly emission rates around 20–25 Tg C, when averaged by 30-degree latitudinal bands. They also indicate relatively small (approximately 5 to 10 % around the mean interannual variability of total global emissions. The models are sensitive to changes in one or more of their main model components and drivers (e.g., underlying vegetation fields, climate input which can yield increases or decreases in total annual emissions of cumulatively by more than 30 %. Varying drivers also strongly alters the seasonal emission pattern. The variable response needs to be interpreted in view of the vegetation emission capacities, as well as diverging absolute and regional distribution of light, radiation and temperature, but the direction of the simulated emission changes was not as uniform as anticipated. Our results highlight the need for modellers to evaluate their

  20. Millennium-scale crossdating and inter-annual climate sensitivities of standing California redwoods.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Allyson L Carroll

    Full Text Available Extremely decay-resistant wood and fire-resistant bark allow California's redwoods to accumulate millennia of annual growth rings that can be useful in biological research. Whereas tree rings of Sequoiadendron giganteum (SEGI helped formalize the study of dendrochronology and the principle of crossdating, those of Sequoia sempervirens (SESE have proven much more difficult to decipher, greatly limiting dendroclimatic and other investigations of this species. We overcame these problems by climbing standing trees and coring trunks at multiple heights in 14 old-growth forest locations across California. Overall, we sampled 1,466 series with 483,712 annual rings from 120 trees and were able to crossdate 83% of SESE compared to 99% of SEGI rings. Standard and residual tree-ring chronologies spanning up to 1,685 years for SESE and 1,538 years for SEGI were created for each location to evaluate crossdating and to examine correlations between annual growth and climate. We used monthly values of temperature, precipitation, and drought severity as well as summer cloudiness to quantify potential drivers of inter-annual growth variation over century-long time series at each location. SESE chronologies exhibited a latitudinal gradient of climate sensitivities, contrasting cooler northern rainforests and warmer, drier southern forests. Radial growth increased with decreasing summer cloudiness in northern rainforests and a central SESE location. The strongest dendroclimatic relationship occurred in our southernmost SESE location, where radial growth correlated negatively with dry summer conditions and exhibited responses to historic fires. SEGI chronologies showed negative correlations with June temperature and positive correlations with previous October precipitation. More work is needed to understand quantitative relationships between SEGI radial growth and moisture availability, particularly snowmelt. Tree-ring chronologies developed here for both redwood

  1. Sensitivity of global and regional terrestrial carbon storage to the direct CO2 effect and climate change based on the CMIP5 model intercomparison.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Jing; Dan, Li; Huang, Mei

    2014-01-01

    Global and regional land carbon storage has been significantly affected by increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate change. Based on fully coupled climate-carbon-cycle simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), we investigate sensitivities of land carbon storage to rising atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate change over the world and 21 regions during the 130 years. Overall, the simulations suggest that consistently spatial positive effects of the increasing CO2 concentrations on land carbon storage are expressed with a multi-model averaged value of 1.04 PgC per ppm. The stronger positive values are mainly located in the broad areas of temperate and tropical forest, especially in Amazon basin and western Africa. However, large heterogeneity distributed for sensitivities of land carbon storage to climate change. Climate change causes decrease in land carbon storage in most tropics and the Southern Hemisphere. In these regions, decrease in soil moisture (MRSO) and enhanced drought somewhat contribute to such a decrease accompanied with rising temperature. Conversely, an increase in land carbon storage has been observed in high latitude and altitude regions (e.g., northern Asia and Tibet). The model simulations also suggest that global negative impacts of climate change on land carbon storage are predominantly attributed to decrease in land carbon storage in tropics. Although current warming can lead to an increase in land storage of high latitudes of Northern Hemisphere due to elevated vegetation growth, a risk of exacerbated future climate change may be induced due to release of carbon from tropics.

  2. Sensitivity of global and regional terrestrial carbon storage to the direct CO2 effect and climate change based on the CMIP5 model intercomparison.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jing Peng

    Full Text Available Global and regional land carbon storage has been significantly affected by increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate change. Based on fully coupled climate-carbon-cycle simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5, we investigate sensitivities of land carbon storage to rising atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate change over the world and 21 regions during the 130 years. Overall, the simulations suggest that consistently spatial positive effects of the increasing CO2 concentrations on land carbon storage are expressed with a multi-model averaged value of 1.04 PgC per ppm. The stronger positive values are mainly located in the broad areas of temperate and tropical forest, especially in Amazon basin and western Africa. However, large heterogeneity distributed for sensitivities of land carbon storage to climate change. Climate change causes decrease in land carbon storage in most tropics and the Southern Hemisphere. In these regions, decrease in soil moisture (MRSO and enhanced drought somewhat contribute to such a decrease accompanied with rising temperature. Conversely, an increase in land carbon storage has been observed in high latitude and altitude regions (e.g., northern Asia and Tibet. The model simulations also suggest that global negative impacts of climate change on land carbon storage are predominantly attributed to decrease in land carbon storage in tropics. Although current warming can lead to an increase in land storage of high latitudes of Northern Hemisphere due to elevated vegetation growth, a risk of exacerbated future climate change may be induced due to release of carbon from tropics.

  3. Sensitivity of climate change in Europe to the Northern Atlantic warming

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Timbal, B; Mahfouf, J F; Royer, J F [Centre National de Recherches Meteoroloques, Toulouse (France)

    1996-12-31

    The increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide since the beginning of the industrial revolution has raised the question of its impact on climate. Anthropogenic release of carbon dioxide is an extra source in the complex carbon cycle involving the ocean, the atmosphere and the biosphere. Three-dimensional general circulation models have been used world-wide over the last decade to perform climate research. Complete global change experiments need to couple an atmospheric model with an oceanic one and a thermodynamical and dynamical sea-ice model. Therefore realistic scenarios of greenhouse gas increases can be studied. These computer-time expensive experiments cannot be reproduced as often as necessary. A commonly used approach is to perform time-slice experiments at the equilibrium with an atmospheric GCM forced by Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies. Several sensitivity experiments using higher resolutions or more sophisticated physical parameterisations can be performed. As the resolution increases, one can study the result over special areas of interest, such as Europe

  4. The influence of internal variability on Earth's energy balance framework and implications for estimating climate sensitivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dessler, Andrew E.; Mauritsen, Thorsten; Stevens, Bjorn

    2018-04-01

    Our climate is constrained by the balance between solar energy absorbed by the Earth and terrestrial energy radiated to space. This energy balance has been widely used to infer equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) from observations of 20th-century warming. Such estimates yield lower values than other methods, and these have been influential in pushing down the consensus ECS range in recent assessments. Here we test the method using a 100-member ensemble of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM1.1) simulations of the period 1850-2005 with known forcing. We calculate ECS in each ensemble member using energy balance, yielding values ranging from 2.1 to 3.9 K. The spread in the ensemble is related to the central assumption in the energy budget framework: that global average surface temperature anomalies are indicative of anomalies in outgoing energy (either of terrestrial origin or reflected solar energy). We find that this assumption is not well supported over the historical temperature record in the model ensemble or more recent satellite observations. We find that framing energy balance in terms of 500 hPa tropical temperature better describes the planet's energy balance.

  5. Sensitivity of the global submarine hydrate inventory to scenarios of future climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunter, S. J.; Goldobin, D. S.; Haywood, A. M.; Ridgwell, A.; Rees, J. G.

    2013-04-01

    The global submarine inventory of methane hydrate is thought to be considerable. The stability of marine hydrates is sensitive to changes in temperature and pressure and once destabilised, hydrates release methane into sediments and ocean and potentially into the atmosphere, creating a positive feedback with climate change. Here we present results from a multi-model study investigating how the methane hydrate inventory dynamically responds to different scenarios of future climate and sea level change. The results indicate that a warming-induced reduction is dominant even when assuming rather extreme rates of sea level rise (up to 20 mm yr-1) under moderate warming scenarios (RCP 4.5). Over the next century modelled hydrate dissociation is focussed in the top ˜100m of Arctic and Subarctic sediments beneath business-as-usual scenario (RCP 8.5), upper estimates of resulting global sea-floor methane fluxes could exceed estimates of natural global fluxes by 2100 (>30-50TgCH4yr-1), although subsequent oxidation in the water column could reduce peak atmospheric release rates to 0.75-1.4 Tg CH4 yr-1.

  6. Water limited agriculture in Africa: Climate change sensitivity of large scale land investments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rulli, M. C.; D'Odorico, P.; Chiarelli, D. D.; Davis, K. F.

    2015-12-01

    The past few decades have seen unprecedented changes in the global agricultural system with a dramatic increase in the rates of food production fueled by an escalating demand for food calories, as a result of demographic growth, dietary changes, and - more recently - new bioenergy policies. Food prices have become consistently higher and increasingly volatile with dramatic spikes in 2007-08 and 2010-11. The confluence of these factors has heightened demand for land and brought a wave of land investment to the developing world: some of the more affluent countries are trying to secure land rights in areas suitable for agriculture. According to some estimates, to date, roughly 38 million hectares have been acquired worldwide by large scale investors, 16 million of which in Africa. More than 85% of large scale land acquisitions in Africa are by foreign investors. Many land deals are motivated not only by the need for fertile land but for the water resources required for crop production. Despite some recent assessments of the water appropriation associated with large scale land investments, their impact on the water resources of the target countries under present conditions and climate change scenarios remains poorly understood. Here we investigate irrigation water requirements by various crops planted in the acquired land as an indicator of the pressure likely placed by land investors on ("blue") water resources of target regions in Africa and evaluate the sensitivity to climate changes scenarios.

  7. Sensitivity of climate change in Europe to the Northern Atlantic warming

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Timbal, B.; Mahfouf, J.F.; Royer, J.F. [Centre National de Recherches Meteoroloques, Toulouse (France)

    1995-12-31

    The increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide since the beginning of the industrial revolution has raised the question of its impact on climate. Anthropogenic release of carbon dioxide is an extra source in the complex carbon cycle involving the ocean, the atmosphere and the biosphere. Three-dimensional general circulation models have been used world-wide over the last decade to perform climate research. Complete global change experiments need to couple an atmospheric model with an oceanic one and a thermodynamical and dynamical sea-ice model. Therefore realistic scenarios of greenhouse gas increases can be studied. These computer-time expensive experiments cannot be reproduced as often as necessary. A commonly used approach is to perform time-slice experiments at the equilibrium with an atmospheric GCM forced by Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies. Several sensitivity experiments using higher resolutions or more sophisticated physical parameterisations can be performed. As the resolution increases, one can study the result over special areas of interest, such as Europe

  8. Runoff and Evapotranspiration Sensitivities to a Changing Climate in the Western U.S.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, M.; Xiao, M.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

    2017-12-01

    Climate change is likely to alter streamflow seasonal patterns, affect water availability, and otherwise pose challenges to water resources management. It is therefore important to understand how streamflow will respond to changes in climate. Previous studies have mostly focused on runoff sensitivity to precipitation (P) and temperature change, but runoff sensitivity to potential evapotranspiration (PET) is less well understood. In order to investigate how variations in precipitation and PET influence runoff, we conducted both statistical and model-based analyses of 84 near-natural basins in California, Oregon, and Washington. We obtained meteorological forcing data at 1/16 degree spatial resolution for each basin from the University of Washington/UCLA Experimental Surface Water Monitor, and observed runoff data from USGS. For the statistical method, we applied three estimators of the precipitation elasticity of runoff from previous studies. We also estimated the PET elasticity of runoff, using Penman-Monteith reference ET as a surrogate for PET. For the modelling method, we implemented the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting (SAC-SMA) Model, where PET is an explicit input. We performed experiments in which we changed P and PET by 1% individually to examine their effects on runoff, from which we computed the P and PET elasticities. We explore the spatial patterns in the elasticities of runoff and their relationships with basin characteristics and climatology. We also evaluate how well the statistical and model-based results meet the complementary relationship posited by Dooge (based on the Budyko Hypothesis) that the precipitation and PET elasticities of annual runoff should sum to one.

  9. BH3105 type neutron dose equivalent meter of high sensitivity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ji Changsong; Zhang Enshan; Yang Jianfeng; Zhang Hong; Huang Jiling

    1995-10-01

    It is noted that to design a neutron dose meter of high sensitivity is almost impossible in the frame of traditional designing principle--'absorption net principle'. Based on a newly proposed principle of obtaining neutron dose equi-biological effect adjustment--' absorption stick principle', a brand-new neutron dose-equivalent meter with high neutron sensitivity BH3105 has been developed. Its sensitivity reaches 10 cps/(μSv·h -1 ), which is 18∼40 times higher than one of foreign products of the same kind and is 10 4 times higher than that of domestic FJ342 neutron rem-meter. BH3105 has a measurement range from 0.1μSv/h to 1 Sv/h which is 1 or 2 orders wider than that of the other's. It has the advanced properties of gamma-resistance, energy response, orientation, etc. (6 tabs., 5 figs.)

  10. A high sensitivity nanomaterial based SAW humidity sensor

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wu, T-T; Chou, T-H [Institute of Applied Mechanics, National Taiwan University, Taipei 106, Taiwan (China); Chen, Y-Y [Department of Mechanical Engineering, Tatung University, Taipei 104, Taiwan (China)], E-mail: wutt@ndt.iam.ntu.edu.tw

    2008-04-21

    In this paper, a highly sensitive humidity sensor is reported. The humidity sensor is configured by a 128{sup 0}YX-LiNbO{sub 3} based surface acoustic wave (SAW) resonator whose operating frequency is at 145 MHz. A dual delay line configuration is realized to eliminate external temperature fluctuations. Moreover, for nanostructured materials possessing high surface-to-volume ratio, large penetration depth and fast charge diffusion rate, camphor sulfonic acid doped polyaniline (PANI) nanofibres are synthesized by the interfacial polymerization method and further deposited on the SAW resonator as selective coating to enhance sensitivity. The humidity sensor is used to measure various relative humidities in the range 5-90% at room temperature. Results show that the PANI nanofibre based SAW humidity sensor exhibits excellent sensitivity and short-term repeatability.

  11. Performance of terahertz metamaterials as high-sensitivity sensor

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Yanan; Zhang, Bo; Shen, Jingling

    2017-09-01

    A high-sensitivity sensor based on the resonant transmission characteristics of terahertz (THz) metamaterials was investigated, with the proposal and fabrication of rectangular bar arrays of THz metamaterials exhibiting a period of 180 μm on a 25 μm thick flexible polyimide. Varying the size of the metamaterial structure revealed that the length of the rectangular unit modulated the resonant frequency, which was verified by both experiment and simulation. The sensing characteristics upon varying the surrounding media in the sample were tested by simulation and experiment. Changing the surrounding medium from that of air to that of alcohol or oil produced resonant frequency redshifts of 80 GHz or 150 GHz, respectively, which indicates that the sensor possessed a high sensitivity of 667 GHz per unit of refractive index. Finally, the influence of the sample substrate thickness on the sensor sensitivity was investigated by simulation. It may be a reference for future sensor design.

  12. Vulnerability of High-Quality Winegrowing to Climate Change in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cahill, K. N.; Field, C. B.; Matthews, M. A.; Lobell, D. B.

    2009-05-01

    We took an interdisciplinary approach to examine the climate sensitivity and adaptive capacity of both the ecological and social systems of winegrowing. In a three-year study, we used field, laboratory, modeling, and anthropological approaches to examine the vulnerability of the wine industry to climate change. We developed models of winegrape yields based on the effects of historical temperature and precipitation in California, and used these findings to project future yields under climate change. We examined the concentrations of phenolic compounds important to wine quality (anthocyanins and tannins) in Pinot noir grapes from across a range of mesoclimates. We found that increased concentrations of these phenolic compounds were correlated with cool temperatures in the fall the year before harvest, warm temperatures from budburst to bloom, and cool temperatures from bloom to veraison, and with lower light intensities in these highly sun-exposed vines. We also conducted interviews to examine the adaptation responses of winegrowers to environmental stresses. We found that growers undertake a wide variety of environmental management strategies in the vineyard, most of which are individual in nature, and either in response to an existing stress, or in anticipation of an imminent stress. Finally, we examined the potential adaptive capacity of the wine industry to climate change, based on its awareness of climate change, ability to react, and actual actions and barriers to action. We conclude that winegrowers have a fairly high adaptive capacity, but that successful adaptation in practice depends on including proactive and coordinated community responses, which are beginning to develop.

  13. Climate Change Impacts on High-Altitude Ecosystems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Harald Pauli

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Reviewed: Climate Change Impacts on High-Altitude Ecosystems By Münir Öztürk, Khalid Rehman Hakeem, I. Faridah-Hanum and Efe. Recep, Cham, Switzerland: Springer International Publishing, 2015. xvii + 696 pp. US$ 239.00. ISBN 978-3-319-12858-0.

  14. Climate Change Impacts on High-Altitude Ecosystems

    OpenAIRE

    Harald Pauli

    2016-01-01

    Reviewed: Climate Change Impacts on High-Altitude Ecosystems By Münir Öztürk, Khalid Rehman Hakeem, I. Faridah-Hanum and Efe. Recep, Cham, Switzerland: Springer International Publishing, 2015. xvii + 696 pp. US$ 239.00. ISBN 978-3-319-12858-0.

  15. Using Satellites to Investigate the Sensitivity of Longwave Downward Radiation to Water Vapor at High Elevations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naud, Catherine M.; Miller, James R.; Landry, Chris

    2012-01-01

    Many studies suggest that high-elevation regions may be among the most sensitive to future climate change. However, in situ observations in these often remote locations are too sparse to determine the feedbacks responsible for enhanced warming rates. One of these feedbacks is associated with the sensitivity of longwave downward radiation (LDR) to changes in water vapor, with the sensitivity being particularly large in many high-elevation regions where the average water vapor is often low. We show that satellite retrievals from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) can be used to expand the current ground-based observational database and that the monthly averaged clear-sky satellite estimates of humidity and LDR are in good agreement with the well-instrumented Center for Snow and Avalanche Studies ground-based site in the southwestern Colorado Rocky Mountains. The relationship between MODIS-retrieved precipitable water vapor and surface specific humidity across the contiguous United States was found to be similar to that previously found for the Alps. More important, we show that satellites capture the nonlinear relationship between LDR and water vapor and confirm that LDR is especially sensitive to changes in water vapor at high elevations in several midlatitude mountain ranges. Because the global population depends on adequate fresh water, much of which has its source in high mountains, it is critically important to understand how climate will change there. We demonstrate that satellites can be used to investigate these feedbacks in high-elevation regions where the coverage of surface-based observations is insufficient to do so.

  16. Nonannual tree rings in a climate-sensitive Prioria copaifera chronology in the Atrato River, Colombia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herrera-Ramirez, David; Andreu-Hayles, Laia; Del Valle, Jorge I; Santos, Guaciara M; Gonzalez, Paula L M

    2017-08-01

    In temperate climates, tree growth dormancy usually ensures the annual nature of tree rings, but in tropical environments, determination of annual periodicity can be more complex. The purposes of the work are as follows: (1) to generate a reliable tree-ring width chronology for Prioria copaifera Griseb. (Leguminoceae), a tropical tree species dwelling in the Atrato River floodplains, Colombia; (2) to assess the climate signal recorded by the tree-ring records; and (3) to validate the annual periodicity of the tree rings using independent methods. We used standard dendrochronological procedures to generate the P. copaifera tree-ring chronology. We used Pearson correlations to evaluate the relationship of the chronology with the meteorological records, climate regional indices, and gridded precipitation/sea surface temperature products. We also evaluated 24 high-precision 14 C measurements spread over a range of preselected tree rings, with assigned calendar years by dendrochronological techniques, before and after the bomb spike in order to validate the annual nature of the tree rings. The tree-ring width chronology was statistically reliable, and it correlated significantly with local records of annual and October-December (OND) streamflow and precipitation across the upper river watershed (positive), and OND temperature (negative). It was also significantly related to the Oceanic Niño Index, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and the Southern Oscillation Index, as well as sea surface temperatures over the Caribbean and the Pacific region. However, 14 C high-precision measurements over the tree rings demonstrated offsets of up to 40 years that indicate that P. copaifera can produce more than one ring in certain years. Results derived from the strongest climate-growth relationship during the most recent years of the record suggest that the climatic signal reported may be due to the presence of annual rings in some of those trees in recent years. Our study alerts about

  17. Sensitive high performance liquid chromatographic method for the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A new simple, sensitive, cost-effective and reproducible high performance liquid chromatographic (HPLC) method for the determination of proguanil (PG) and its metabolites, cycloguanil (CG) and 4-chlorophenylbiguanide (4-CPB) in urine and plasma is described. The extraction procedure is a simple three-step process ...

  18. Methylation-Sensitive High Resolution Melting (MS-HRM).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hussmann, Dianna; Hansen, Lise Lotte

    2018-01-01

    Methylation-Sensitive High Resolution Melting (MS-HRM) is an in-tube, PCR-based method to detect methylation levels at specific loci of interest. A unique primer design facilitates a high sensitivity of the assays enabling detection of down to 0.1-1% methylated alleles in an unmethylated background.Primers for MS-HRM assays are designed to be complementary to the methylated allele, and a specific annealing temperature enables these primers to anneal both to the methylated and the unmethylated alleles thereby increasing the sensitivity of the assays. Bisulfite treatment of the DNA prior to performing MS-HRM ensures a different base composition between methylated and unmethylated DNA, which is used to separate the resulting amplicons by high resolution melting.The high sensitivity of MS-HRM has proven useful for detecting cancer biomarkers in a noninvasive manner in urine from bladder cancer patients, in stool from colorectal cancer patients, and in buccal mucosa from breast cancer patients. MS-HRM is a fast method to diagnose imprinted diseases and to clinically validate results from whole-epigenome studies. The ability to detect few copies of methylated DNA makes MS-HRM a key player in the quest for establishing links between environmental exposure, epigenetic changes, and disease.

  19. Aluminum nano-cantilevers for high sensitivity mass sensors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Davis, Zachary James; Boisen, Anja

    2005-01-01

    We have fabricated Al nano-cantilevers using a very simple one mask contact UV lithography technique with lateral dimensions under 500 nm and vertical dimensions of approximately 100 nm. These devices are demonstrated as highly sensitive mass sensors by measuring their dynamic properties. Further...

  20. High sensitivity probe absorption technique for time-of-flight ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Abstract. We report on a phase-sensitive probe absorption technique with high sen- sitivity, capable of detecting a few hundred ultra-cold atoms in flight in an observation time of a few milliseconds. The large signal-to-noise ratio achieved is sufficient for reliable measurements on low intensity beams of cold atoms.

  1. Climate change sensitivity of the African ivory nut palm, Hyphaene petersiana Klotzsch ex Mart. (Arecaceae) - a keystone species in SE Africa

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blach-Overgaard, A; Svenning, J-C; Balslev, H

    2009-01-01

    Africa is the most vulnerable continent to future climate change. Profound changes are projected for southwestern Africa with increased drying, notably with delayed onset of the rainy season in September-November, and temperature increases in all seasons. The projected climate changes combined with land-use changes are thought to constitute the main threats to biodiversity in the 21st century. To be able to predict the potential impact on biodiversity, it is crucial to achieve a better insight into the controls of contemporary species ranges. Using species distribution modeling, we assessed the climate sensitivity of the key-stone palm species Hyphaene petersiana (African ivory nut palm) in southern Africa. We tested the relative roles of climate vs. non-climatic range-controls and found that climate had a clear effect on the range of H. petersiana and that especially water-related variables (annual precipitation and precipitation driest quarter) were of high importance. Nevertheless, latitude was the overall most dominant variable, reflecting spatial constraints on the continental-scale distribution. Of the remaining non-climatic factors, soil type and human influence were as important as the climatic factors. A future decrease in annual precipitation below 400 mm and hydrological changes towards drier conditions could cause a dramatic decline in H. petersiana populations, while the influence of temperature changes is less clear. The ongoing, unsustainable utilization pressures on this palm species by humans and livestock are likely to exacerbate the negative effect of future climate changes on its populations, especially, given the expected human population increase in Africa.

  2. Is climate change affecting wolf populations in the high Arctic?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mech, L.D.

    2004-01-01

    Gobal climate change may affect wolves in Canada's High Arctic (80?? N) acting through three trophic levels (vegetation, herbivores, and wolves). A wolf pack dependent on muskoxen and arctic hares in the Eureka area of Ellesmere Island denned and produced pups most years from at least 1986 through 1997. However, when summer snow covered vegetation in 1997 and 2000 for the first time since records were kept, halving the herbivore nutrition-replenishment period, muskox and hare numbers dropped drastically, and the area stopped supporting denning wolves through 2003. The unusual weather triggering these events was consistent with global-climate-change phenomena. ?? 2004 Kluwer Academic Publishers.

  3. Abrupt millennial variability and interdecadal-interstadial oscillations in a global coupled model: sensitivity to the background climate state

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arzel, Olivier [The University of New South Wales, Climate Change Research Centre (CCRC), Sydney (Australia); Universite de Bretagne Occidentale, Laboratoire de Physique des Oceans (LPO), Brest (France); England, Matthew H. [The University of New South Wales, Climate Change Research Centre (CCRC), Sydney (Australia); Verdiere, Alain Colin de; Huck, Thierry [Universite de Bretagne Occidentale, Laboratoire de Physique des Oceans (LPO), Brest (France)

    2012-07-15

    The origin and bifurcation structure of abrupt millennial-scale climate transitions under steady external solar forcing and in the absence of atmospheric synoptic variability is studied by means of a global coupled model of intermediate complexity. We show that the origin of Dansgaard-Oeschger type oscillations in the model is caused by the weaker northward oceanic heat transport in the Atlantic basin. This is in agreement with previous studies realized with much simpler models, based on highly idealized geometries and simplified physics. The existence of abrupt millennial-scale climate transitions during glacial times can therefore be interpreted as a consequence of the weakening of the negative temperature-advection feedback. This is confirmed through a series of numerical experiments designed to explore the sensitivity of the bifurcation structure of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation to increased atmospheric CO{sub 2} levels under glacial boundary conditions. Contrasting with the cold, stadial, phases of millennial oscillations, we also show the emergence of strong interdecadal variability in the North Atlantic sector during warm interstadials. The instability driving these interdecadal-interstadial oscillations is shown to be identical to that found in ocean-only models forced by fixed surface buoyancy fluxes, that is, a large-scale baroclinic instability developing in the vicinity of the western boundary current in the North Atlantic. Comparisons with modern observations further suggest a physical mechanism similar to that driving the 30-40 years time scale associated with the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation. (orig.)

  4. Sensitivity analysis with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM over the CORDEX-MENA domain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bucchignani, E.; Cattaneo, L.; Panitz, H.-J.; Mercogliano, P.

    2016-02-01

    The results of a sensitivity work based on ERA-Interim driven COSMO-CLM simulations over the Middle East-North Africa (CORDEX-MENA) domain are presented. All simulations were performed at 0.44° spatial resolution. The purpose of this study was to ascertain model performances with respect to changes in physical and tuning parameters which are mainly related to surface, convection, radiation and cloud parameterizations. Evaluation was performed for the whole CORDEX-MENA region and six sub-regions, comparing a set of 26 COSMO-CLM runs against a combination of available ground observations, satellite products and reanalysis data to assess temperature, precipitation, cloud cover and mean sea level pressure. The model proved to be very sensitive to changes in physical parameters. The optimized configuration allows COSMO-CLM to improve the simulated main climate features of this area. Its main characteristics consist in the new parameterization of albedo, based on Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer data, and the new parameterization of aerosol, based on NASA-GISS AOD distributions. When applying this configuration, Mean Absolute Error values for the considered variables are as follows: about 1.2 °C for temperature, about 15 mm/month for precipitation, about 9 % for total cloud cover, and about 0.6 hPa for mean sea level pressure.

  5. An explanation for the different climate sensitivities of land and ocean surfaces based on the diurnal cycle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Kleidon

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Observations and climate model simulations consistently show a higher climate sensitivity of land surfaces compared to ocean surfaces. Here we show that this difference in temperature sensitivity can be explained by the different means by which the diurnal variation in solar radiation is buffered. While ocean surfaces buffer the diurnal variations by heat storage changes below the surface, land surfaces buffer it mostly by heat storage changes above the surface in the lower atmosphere that are reflected in the diurnal growth of a convective boundary layer. Storage changes below the surface allow the ocean surface–atmosphere system to maintain turbulent fluxes over day and night, while the land surface–atmosphere system maintains turbulent fluxes only during the daytime hours, when the surface is heated by absorption of solar radiation. This shorter duration of turbulent fluxes on land results in a greater sensitivity of the land surface–atmosphere system to changes in the greenhouse forcing because nighttime temperatures are shaped by radiative exchange only, which are more sensitive to changes in greenhouse forcing. We use a simple, analytic energy balance model of the surface–atmosphere system in which turbulent fluxes are constrained by the maximum power limit to estimate the effects of these different means to buffer the diurnal cycle on the resulting temperature sensitivities. The model predicts that land surfaces have a 50 % greater climate sensitivity than ocean surfaces, and that the nighttime temperatures on land increase about twice as much as daytime temperatures because of the absence of turbulent fluxes at night. Both predictions compare very well with observations and CMIP5 climate model simulations. Hence, the greater climate sensitivity of land surfaces can be explained by its buffering of diurnal variations in solar radiation in the lower atmosphere.

  6. High-Arctic Plant-Herbivore Interactions under Climate Influence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Berg, Thomas B.; Schmidt, Niels M.; Høye, Toke Thomas

    production upon which the herbivores depend, and snow may be the most important climatic factor affecting the different trophic levels and the interactions between them. Hence, the spatio-temporal distribution of snow, as well as thawing events during winter, may have considerable effects on the herbivores...... by both the timing of onset and the duration of winter snow-cover. Musk oxen significantly reduced the productivity of arctic willow, while high densities of collared lemmings during winter reduced the production of mountain averts flowers in the following summer. Under a deep snow-layer scenario, climate...... and the previous year's density of musk oxen had a negative effect on the present year's production of arctic willow. Previous year's primary production of arctic willow, in turn, significantly affected the present year's density of musk oxen positively. Climatic factors that affect primary production of plants...

  7. Highly sensitive detection using microring resonator and nanopores

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bougot-Robin, K.; Hoste, J. W.; Le Thomas, N.; Bienstman, P.; Edel, J. B.

    2016-04-01

    One of the most significant challenges facing physical and biological scientists is the accurate detection and identification of single molecules in free-solution environments. The ability to perform such sensitive and selective measurements opens new avenues for a large number of applications in biological, medical and chemical analysis, where small sample volumes and low analyte concentrations are the norm. Access to information at the single or few molecules scale is rendered possible by a fine combination of recent advances in technologies. We propose a novel detection method that combines highly sensitive label-free resonant sensing obtained with high-Q microcavities and position control in nanoscale pores (nanopores). In addition to be label-free and highly sensitive, our technique is immobilization free and does not rely on surface biochemistry to bind probes on a chip. This is a significant advantage, both in term of biology uncertainties and fewer biological preparation steps. Through combination of high-Q photonic structures with translocation through nanopore at the end of a pipette, or through a solid-state membrane, we believe significant advances can be achieved in the field of biosensing. Silicon microrings are highly advantageous in term of sensitivity, multiplexing, and microfabrication and are chosen for this study. In term of nanopores, we both consider nanopore at the end of a nanopipette, with the pore being approach from the pipette with nanoprecise mechanical control. Alternatively, solid state nanopores can be fabricated through a membrane, supporting the ring. Both configuration are discussed in this paper, in term of implementation and sensitivity.

  8. NK sensitivity of neuroblastoma cells determined by a highly sensitive coupled luminescent method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ogbomo, Henry; Hahn, Anke; Geiler, Janina; Michaelis, Martin; Doerr, Hans Wilhelm; Cinatl, Jindrich

    2006-01-01

    The measurement of natural killer (NK) cells toxicity against tumor or virus-infected cells especially in cases with small blood samples requires highly sensitive methods. Here, a coupled luminescent method (CLM) based on glyceraldehyde-3-phosphate dehydrogenase release from injured target cells was used to evaluate the cytotoxicity of interleukin-2 activated NK cells against neuroblastoma cell lines. In contrast to most other methods, CLM does not require the pretreatment of target cells with labeling substances which could be toxic or radioactive. The effective killing of tumor cells was achieved by low effector/target ratios ranging from 0.5:1 to 4:1. CLM provides highly sensitive, safe, and fast procedure for measurement of NK cell activity with small blood samples such as those obtained from pediatric patients

  9. Instruction manual for ORNL tandem high abundance sensitivity mass spectrometer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, D.H.; McKown, H.S.; Chrisite, W.H.; Walker, R.L.; Carter, J.A.

    1976-06-01

    This manual describes the physical characteristics of the tandem mass spectrometer built by Oak Ridge National Laboratory for the International Atomic Energy Agency. Specific requirements met include ability to run small samples, high abundance sensitivity, good precision and accuracy, and adequate sample throughput. The instrument is capable of running uranium samples as small as 10 -12 g and has an abundance sensitivity in excess of 10 6 . Precision and accuracy are enhanced by a special sweep control circuit. Sample throughput is 6 to 12 samples per day. Operating instructions are also given

  10. A highly sensitive and specific assay for vertebrate collagenase

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sodek, J.; Hurum, S.; Feng, J.

    1981-01-01

    A highly sensitive and specific assay for vertebrate collagenase has been developed using a [ 14 C]-labeled collagen substrate and a combination of SDS-PAGE (sodium dodecyl sulfate-polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis) and fluorography to identify and quantitate the digestion products. The assay was sufficiently sensitive to permit the detection and quantitation of collagenase activity in 0.1 μl of gingival sulcal fluid, and in samples of cell culture medium without prior concentration. The assay has also been used to detect the presence of inhibitors of collagenolytic enzymes in various cell culture fluids. (author)

  11. Addressing Curse of Dimensionality in Sensitivity Analysis: How Can We Handle High-Dimensional Problems?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Safaei, S.; Haghnegahdar, A.; Razavi, S.

    2016-12-01

    Complex environmental models are now the primary tool to inform decision makers for the current or future management of environmental resources under the climate and environmental changes. These complex models often contain a large number of parameters that need to be determined by a computationally intensive calibration procedure. Sensitivity analysis (SA) is a very useful tool that not only allows for understanding the model behavior, but also helps in reducing the number of calibration parameters by identifying unimportant ones. The issue is that most global sensitivity techniques are highly computationally demanding themselves for generating robust and stable sensitivity metrics over the entire model response surface. Recently, a novel global sensitivity analysis method, Variogram Analysis of Response Surfaces (VARS), is introduced that can efficiently provide a comprehensive assessment of global sensitivity using the Variogram concept. In this work, we aim to evaluate the effectiveness of this highly efficient GSA method in saving computational burden, when applied to systems with extra-large number of input factors ( 100). We use a test function and a hydrological modelling case study to demonstrate the capability of VARS method in reducing problem dimensionality by identifying important vs unimportant input factors.

  12. The physical activity climate in Minnesota middle and high schools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samuelson, Anne; Lytle, Leslie; Pasch, Keryn; Farbakhsh, Kian; Moe, Stacey; Sirard, John Ronald

    2010-11-01

    This article describes policies, practices, and facilities that form the physical activity climate in Minneapolis/St. Paul, Minnesota metro area middle and high schools and examines how the physical activity climate varies by school characteristics, including public/private, school location and grade level. Surveys examining school physical activity practices, policies and environment were administered to principals and physical education department heads from 115 middle and high schools participating in the Transdisciplinary Research on Energetics and Cancer-Identifying Determinants of Eating and Activity (TREC-IDEA) study. While some supportive practices were highly prevalent in the schools studied (such as prohibiting substitution of other classes for physical education); other practices were less common (such as providing opportunity for intramural (noncompetitive) sports). Public schools vs. private schools and schools with a larger school enrollment were more likely to have a school climate supportive of physical activity. Although schools reported elements of positive physical activity climates, discrepancies exist by school characteristics. Of note, public schools were more than twice as likely as private schools to have supportive physical activity environments. Establishing more consistent physical activity expectations and funding at the state and national level is necessary to increase regular school physical activity.

  13. A characteristics of East Asian climate using high-resolution regional climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yhang, Y.

    2013-12-01

    Climate research, particularly application studies for water, agriculture, forestry, fishery and energy management require fine scale multi-decadal information of meteorological, oceanographic and land states. Unfortunately, spatially and temporally homogeneous multi-decadal observations of these variables in high horizontal resolution are non-existent. Some long term surface records of temperature and precipitation exist, but the number of observation is very limited and the measurements are often contaminated by changes in instrumentation over time. Some climatologically important variables, such as soil moisture, surface evaporation, and radiation are not even measured over most of East Asia. Reanalysis is one approach to obtaining long term homogeneous analysis of needed variables. However, the horizontal resolution of global reanalysis is of the order of 100 to 200 km, too coarse for many application studies. Regional climate models (RCMs) are able to provide valuable regional finescale information, especially in regions where the climate variables are strongly regulated by the underlying topography and the surface heterogeneity. In this study, we will provide accurately downscaled regional climate over East Asia using the Global/Regional Integrated Model system [GRIMs; Hong et al. 2013]. A mixed layer model is embedded within the GRIMs in order to improve air-sea interaction. A detailed description of the characteristics of the East Asian summer and winter climate will be presented through the high-resolution numerical simulations. The increase in horizontal resolution is expected to provide the high-quality data that can be used in various application areas such as hydrology or environmental model forcing.

  14. Authoritative school climate and high school dropout rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, Yuane; Konold, Timothy R; Cornell, Dewey

    2016-06-01

    This study tested the association between school-wide measures of an authoritative school climate and high school dropout rates in a statewide sample of 315 high schools. Regression models at the school level of analysis used teacher and student measures of disciplinary structure, student support, and academic expectations to predict overall high school dropout rates. Analyses controlled for school demographics of school enrollment size, percentage of low-income students, percentage of minority students, and urbanicity. Consistent with authoritative school climate theory, moderation analyses found that when students perceive their teachers as supportive, high academic expectations are associated with lower dropout rates. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  15. Are inflationary predictions sensitive to very high energy physics?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burgess, C.P.; Lemieux, F.; Holman, R.; Cline, J.M.

    2003-01-01

    It has been proposed that the successful inflationary description of density perturbations on cosmological scales is sensitive to the details of physics at extremely high (trans-Planckian) energies. We test this proposal by examining how inflationary predictions depend on higher-energy scales within a simple model where the higher-energy physics is well understood. We find the best of all possible worlds: inflationary predictions are robust against the vast majority of high-energy effects, but can be sensitive to some effects in certain circumstances, in a way which does not violate ordinary notions of decoupling. This implies both that the comparison of inflationary predictions with CMB data is meaningful, and that it is also worth searching for small deviations from the standard results in the hopes of learning about very high energies. (author)

  16. Response to the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in relation to climate sensitivity in the CMIP3 models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bender, Frida A.M.; Ekman, Annica M.L.; Rodhe, Henning [Stockholm University, Department of Meteorology, Stockholm (Sweden)

    2010-10-15

    The radiative flux perturbations and subsequent temperature responses in relation to the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991 are studied in the ten general circulation models incorporated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 3 (CMIP3), that include a parameterization of volcanic aerosol. Models and observations show decreases in global mean temperature of up to 0.5 K, in response to radiative perturbations of up to 10 W m{sup -2}, averaged over the tropics. The time scale representing the delay between radiative perturbation and temperature response is determined by the slow ocean response, and is estimated to be centered around 4 months in the models. Although the magnitude of the temperature response to a volcanic eruption has previously been used as an indicator of equilibrium climate sensitivity in models, we find these two quantities to be only weakly correlated. This may partly be due to the fact that the size of the volcano-induced radiative perturbation varies among the models. It is found that the magnitude of the modelled radiative perturbation increases with decreasing climate sensitivity, with the exception of one outlying model. Therefore, we scale the temperature perturbation by the radiative perturbation in each model, and use the ratio between the integrated temperature perturbation and the integrated radiative perturbation as a measure of sensitivity to volcanic forcing. This ratio is found to be well correlated with the model climate sensitivity, more sensitive models having a larger ratio. Further, if this correspondence between ''volcanic sensitivity'' and sensitivity to CO{sub 2} forcing is a feature not only among the models, but also of the real climate system, the alleged linear relation can be used to estimate the real climate sensitivity. The observational value of the ratio signifying volcanic sensitivity is hereby estimated to correspond to an equilibrium climate sensitivity, i.e. equilibrium temperature

  17. Design of highly sensitive multichannel bimetallic photonic crystal fiber biosensor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hameed, Mohamed Farhat O.; Alrayk, Yassmin K. A.; Shaalan, Abdelhamid A.; El Deeb, Walid S.; Obayya, Salah S. A.

    2016-10-01

    A design of a highly sensitive multichannel biosensor based on photonic crystal fiber is proposed and analyzed. The suggested design has a silver layer as a plasmonic material coated by a gold layer to protect silver oxidation. The reported sensor is based on detection using the quasi transverse electric (TE) and quasi transverse magnetic (TM) modes, which offers the possibility of multichannel/multianalyte sensing. The numerical results are obtained using a finite element method with perfect matched layer boundary conditions. The sensor geometrical parameters are optimized to achieve high sensitivity for the two polarized modes. High-refractive index sensitivity of about 4750 nm/RIU (refractive index unit) and 4300 nm/RIU with corresponding resolutions of 2.1×10-5 RIU, and 2.33×10-5 RIU can be obtained according to the quasi TM and quasi TE modes of the proposed sensor, respectively. Further, the reported design can be used as a self-calibration biosensor within an unknown analyte refractive index ranging from 1.33 to 1.35 with high linearity and high accuracy. Moreover, the suggested biosensor has advantages in terms of compactness and better integration of microfluidics setup, waveguide, and metallic layers into a single structure.

  18. Economic Value of Narrowing the Uncertainty in Climate Sensitivity: Decadal Change in Shortwave Cloud Radiative Forcing and Low Cloud Feedback

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wielicki, B. A.; Cooke, R. M.; Golub, A. A.; Mlynczak, M. G.; Young, D. F.; Baize, R. R.

    2016-12-01

    Several previous studies have been published on the economic value of narrowing the uncertainty in climate sensitivity (Cooke et al. 2015, Cooke et al. 2016, Hope, 2015). All three of these studies estimated roughly 10 Trillion U.S. dollars for the Net Present Value and Real Option Value at a discount rate of 3%. This discount rate is the nominal discount rate used in the U.S. Social Cost of Carbon Memo (2010). The Cooke et al studies approached this problem by examining advances in accuracy of global temperature measurements, while the Hope 2015 study did not address the type of observations required. While temperature change is related to climate sensitivity, large uncertainties of a factor of 3 in current anthropogenic radiative forcing (IPCC, 2013) would need to be solved for advanced decadal temperature change observations to assist the challenge of narrowing climate sensitivity. The present study takes a new approach by extending the Cooke et al. 2015,2016 papers to replace observations of temperature change to observations of decadal change in the effects of changing clouds on the Earths radiative energy balance, a measurement known as Cloud Radiative Forcing, or Cloud Radiative Effect. Decadal change in this observation is direclty related to the largest uncertainty in climate sensitivity which is cloud feedback from changing amount of low clouds, primarily low clouds over the world's oceans. As a result, decadal changes in shortwave cloud radiative forcing are more directly related to cloud feedback uncertainty which is the dominant uncertainty in climate sensitivity. This paper will show results for the new approach, and allow an examination of the sensitivity of economic value results to different observations used as a constraint on uncertainty in climate sensitivity. The analysis suggests roughly a doubling of economic value to 20 Trillion Net Present Value or Real Option Value at 3% discount rate. The higher economic value results from two changes: a

  19. Hydrologic and Isotopic Sensitivity of Alpine Lakes to Climate Change in the Medicine Bow Mountains, Wyoming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liefert, D. T.; Shuman, B. N.; Mercer, J.; Parsekian, A.; Williams, D. G.

    2017-12-01

    Climate reconstructions show that global average temperatures were 0.5°C higher than today during the mid-Holocene, falling well within projections for increases in global average temperature presented in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report. Despite the consensus for the prediction of a warmer climate, however, it is unclear how snowmelt from high-elevation watersheds will be affected by such a change. Snowmelt contributes substantially to major rivers in the western United States, and much of the water flows through lakes in the highest-elevation watersheds. Our water balance models show that modern alpine lakes with seasonably unstable water levels can desiccate primarily through groundwater outflow, resulting in increased groundwater storage that likely sustains baseflow in mountain streams once snowmelt has subsided in late summer. However, contribution of freshwater from alpine lakes to streams may vary over time as changes in climate alters snowpack, rates of evaporation, and the abundance of snowmelt-fed lakes. As such, alpine lakes with seasonally unstable water levels today may have dried out entirely during the mid-Holocene warm period and may dry out in the future as temperatures increase. To investigate the response of alpine lakes to temperatures of the mid-Holocene, we collected 9 sediment cores from closed-basin alpine lakes in the Medicine Bow Mountains of southern Wyoming that lose most their volumes each summer. We use radiocarbon-dating of charcoal in basal sediments to determine lake formation age, abundance of conifer needles to infer relative forest cover, and a δ18O carbonate record to determine changes in the ratio of evaporation to precipitation in an alpine lake that existed throughout the Holocene. Warming likely changed watershed hydrology through a) decreased snowpack and earlier snowmelt, b) increased evaporation, and c) increased transpiration associated with expanded forest cover and longer growing seasons

  20. Sensitivity of Pliocene Arctic climate to orbital forcing, atmospheric CO2 and sea ice albedo parameterisation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howell, Fergus W.; Haywood, Alan M.; Dowsett, Harry J.; Pickering, Steven J.

    2016-01-01

    General circulation model (GCM) simulations of the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP, 3.264 to 3.025 Myr ago) do not reproduce the magnitude of Northern Hemisphere high latitude surface air and sea surface temperature (SAT and SST) warming that proxy data indicate. There is also large uncertainty regarding the state of sea ice cover in the mPWP. Evidence for both perennial and seasonal mPWP Arctic sea ice is found through analyses of marine sediments, whilst in a multi-model ensemble of mPWP climate simulations, half of the ensemble simulated ice-free summer Arctic conditions. Given the strong influence that sea ice exerts on high latitude temperatures, an understanding of the nature of mPWP Arctic sea ice would be highly beneficial.

  1. The sensitivity of dimethyl sulfide production to simulated climate change in the Eastern Antarctic Southern Ocean

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gabric, Albert J.; Cropp, Roger; Marchant, Harvey

    2003-01-01

    Dimethyl sulfide (DMS) is a radiatively active trace gas produced by enzymatic cleavage of its precursor compound, dimethyl sulfoniopropionate (DMSP), which is released by marine phytoplankton in the upper ocean. Once ventilated to the atmosphere, DMS is oxidised to form non-sea-salt sulfate and methane sulfonate (MSA) aerosols, which are a major source of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) in remote marine air and may thus play a role in climate regulation. Here we simulate the change in DMS flux in the Eastern Antarctic ocean from 1960-2086, corresponding to equivalent CO 2 tripling relative to pre-industrial levels. Calibration to contemporary climate conditions was carried out using a genetic algorithm to fit the model to surface chlorophyll from the 4-yr SeaWiFs satellite archive and surface DMS from an existing global database. Following the methodology used previously in the Subantarctic Southern Ocean, we then simulated DMS emissions under enhanced greenhouse conditions by forcing the DMS model with output from a coupled atmospheric-ocean general circulation model (GCM). The GCM was run in transient mode under the IPCC/IS92a radiative forcing scenario. By 2086, the change simulated in annual integrated DMS flux is around 20% in ice-free waters, with a greater increase of 45% in the seasonal ice zone (SIZ). Interestingly, the large increase in flux in the SIZ is not due to higher in situ production but mainly because of a loss of ice cover during summer-autumn and an increase in sea-to-air ventilation of DMS. These proportional changes in areal mean flux (25%) are much higher than previously estimated for the Subantarctic Southern Ocean (5%), and point to the possibility of a significant DMS-climate feedback at high Southern latitudes. Due to the nexus between ice cover and food-web structure, the potential for ecological community shifts under enhanced greenhouse conditions is high, and the implications for DMS production are discussed

  2. Snow sublimation in mountain environments and its sensitivity to forest disturbance and climate warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sexstone, Graham A.; Clow, David W.; Fassnacht, Steven R.; Liston, Glen E.; Hiemstra, Christopher A.; Knowles, John F.; Penn, Colin A.

    2018-01-01

    Snow sublimation is an important component of the snow mass balance, but the spatial and temporal variability of this process is not well understood in mountain environments. This study combines a process‐based snow model (SnowModel) with eddy covariance (EC) measurements to investigate (1) the spatio‐temporal variability of simulated snow sublimation with respect to station observations, (2) the contribution of snow sublimation to the ablation of the snowpack, and (3) the sensitivity and response of snow sublimation to bark beetle‐induced forest mortality and climate warming across the north‐central Colorado Rocky Mountains. EC‐based observations of snow sublimation compared well with simulated snow sublimation at stations dominated by surface and canopy sublimation, but blowing snow sublimation in alpine areas was not well captured by the EC instrumentation. Water balance calculations provided an important validation of simulated sublimation at the watershed scale. Simulated snow sublimation across the study area was equivalent to 28% of winter precipitation on average, and the highest relative snow sublimation fluxes occurred during the lowest snow years. Snow sublimation from forested areas accounted for the majority of sublimation fluxes, highlighting the importance of canopy and sub‐canopy surface sublimation in this region. Simulations incorporating the effects of tree mortality due to bark‐beetle disturbance resulted in a 4% reduction in snow sublimation from forested areas. Snow sublimation rates corresponding to climate warming simulations remained unchanged or slightly increased, but total sublimation losses decreased by up to 6% because of a reduction in snow covered area and duration.

  3. Climatic sensitivity of dryland soil CO2 fluxes differs dramatically with biological soil crust successional state

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tucker, Colin; Ferrenberg, Scott; Reed, Sasha C.

    2018-01-01

    Arid and semiarid ecosystems make up approximately 41% of Earth’s terrestrial surface and are suggested to regulate the trend and interannual variability of the global terrestrial carbon (C) sink. Biological soil crusts (biocrusts) are common dryland soil surface communities of bryophytes, lichens, and/or cyanobacteria that bind the soil surface together and that may play an important role in regulating the climatic sensitivity of the dryland C cycle. Major uncertainties exist in our understanding of the interacting effects of changing temperature and moisture on CO2 uptake (photosynthesis) and loss (respiration) from biocrust and sub-crust soil, particularly as related to biocrust successional state. Here, we used a mesocosm approach to assess how biocrust successional states related to climate treatments. We subjected bare soil (Bare), early successional lightly pigmented cyanobacterial biocrust (Early), and late successional darkly pigmented moss-lichen biocrust (Late) to either ambient or + 5°C above ambient soil temperature for 84 days. Under ambient temperatures, Late biocrust mesocosms showed frequent net uptake of CO2, whereas Bare soil, Early biocrust, and warmed Late biocrust mesocosms mostly lost CO2 to the atmosphere. The inhibiting effect of warming on CO2 exchange was a result of accelerated drying of biocrust and soil. We used these data to parameterize, via Bayesian methods, a model of ecosystem CO2 fluxes, and evaluated the model with data from an autochamber CO2 system at our field site on the Colorado Plateau in SE Utah. In the context of the field experiment, the data underscore the negative effect of warming on fluxes both biocrust CO2 uptake and loss—which, because biocrusts are a dominant land cover type in this ecosystem, may extend to ecosystem-scale C cycling.

  4. Influence of watershed topographic and socio-economic attributes on the climate sensitivity of global river water quality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, Afed U.; Jiang, Jiping; Wang, Peng; Zheng, Yi

    2017-10-01

    Surface waters exhibit regionalization due to various climatic conditions and anthropogenic activities. Here we assess the impact of topographic and socio-economic factors on the climate sensitivity of surface water quality, estimated using an elasticity approach (climate elasticity of water quality (CEWQ)), and identify potential risks of instability in different regions and climatic conditions. Large global datasets were used for 12 main water quality parameters from 43 water quality monitoring stations located at large major rivers. The results demonstrated that precipitation elasticity shows higher sensitivity to topographic and socio-economic determinants as compared to temperature elasticity. In tropical climate class (A), gross domestic product (GDP) played an important role in stabilizing the CEWQ. In temperate climate class (C), GDP played the same role in stability, while the runoff coefficient, slope, and population density fuelled the risk of instability. The results implied that watersheds with lower runoff coefficient, thick population density, over fertilization and manure application face a higher risk of instability. We discuss the socio-economic and topographic factors that cause instability of CEWQ parameters and conclude with some suggestions for watershed managers to bring sustainability in freshwater bodies.

  5. Direct shortwave forcing of climate by anthropogenic sulfate aerosol: Sensitivity to particle size, composition, and relative humidity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nemesure, S.; Wagener, R.; Schwartz, S.E. [Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, New York (United States)

    1996-04-01

    Recent estimates of global or hemispheric average forcing of climate by anthropogenic sulfate aerosol due to scattering of shortwave radiation are uncertain by more than a factor of 2. This paper examines the sensitivity of forcing to these microphysical properties for the purposes of obtaining a better understanding of the properties required to reduce the uncertainty in the forcing.

  6. Development of High Sensitivity Nuclear Emulsion and Fine Grained Emulsion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kawahara, H.; Asada, T.; Naka, T.; Naganawa, N.; Kuwabara, K.; Nakamura, M.

    2014-08-01

    Nuclear emulsion is a particle detector having high spacial resolution and angular resolution. It became useful for large statistics experiment thanks to the development of automatic scanning system. In 2010, a facility for emulsion production was introduced and R&D of nuclear emulsion began at Nagoya university. In this paper, we present results of development of the high sensitivity emulsion and fine grained emulsion for dark matter search experiment. Improvement of sensitivity is achieved by raising density of silver halide crystals and doping well-adjusted amount of chemicals. Production of fine grained emulsion was difficult because of unexpected crystal condensation. By mixing polyvinyl alcohol (PVA) to gelatin as a binder, we succeeded in making a stable fine grained emulsion.

  7. Development of High Sensitivity Nuclear Emulsion and Fine Grained Emulsion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kawahara, H.; Asada, T.; Naka, T.; Naganawa, N.; Kuwabara, K.; Nakamura, M.

    2014-01-01

    Nuclear emulsion is a particle detector having high spacial resolution and angular resolution. It became useful for large statistics experiment thanks to the development of automatic scanning system. In 2010, a facility for emulsion production was introduced and R and D of nuclear emulsion began at Nagoya university. In this paper, we present results of development of the high sensitivity emulsion and fine grained emulsion for dark matter search experiment. Improvement of sensitivity is achieved by raising density of silver halide crystals and doping well-adjusted amount of chemicals. Production of fine grained emulsion was difficult because of unexpected crystal condensation. By mixing polyvinyl alcohol (PVA) to gelatin as a binder, we succeeded in making a stable fine grained emulsion

  8. Groundwater and climate change: a sensitivity analysis for the Grand Forks aquifer, southern British Columbia, Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, D. M.; Mackie, D. C.; Wei, M.

    The Grand Forks aquifer, located in south-central British Columbia, Canada was used as a case study area for modeling the sensitivity of an aquifer to changes in recharge and river stage consistent with projected climate-change scenarios for the region. Results suggest that variations in recharge to the aquifer under the different climate-change scenarios, modeled under steady-state conditions, have a much smaller impact on the groundwater system than changes in river-stage elevation of the Kettle and Granby Rivers, which flow through the valley. All simulations showed relatively small changes in the overall configuration of the water table and general direction of groundwater flow. High-recharge and low-recharge simulations resulted in approximately a +0.05 m increase and a -0.025 m decrease, respectively, in water-table elevations throughout the aquifer. Simulated changes in river-stage elevation, to reflect higher-than-peak-flow levels (by 20 and 50%), resulted in average changes in the water-table elevation of 2.72 and 3.45 m, respectively. Simulated changes in river-stage elevation, to reflect lower-than-baseflow levels (by 20 and 50%), resulted in average changes in the water-table elevation of -0.48 and -2.10 m, respectively. Current observed water-table elevations in the valley are consistent with an average river-stage elevation (between current baseflow and peak-flow stages). L'aquifère de Grand Forks, situé en Colombie britannique (Canada), a été utilisé comme zone d'étude pour modéliser la sensibilité d'un aquifère à des modifications de la recharge et du niveau de la rivière, correspondant à des scénarios envisagés de changement climatique dans cette région. Les résultats font apparaître que les variations de recharge de l'aquifère pour différents scénarios de changement climatique, modélisées pour des conditions de régime permanent, ont un impact sur le système aquifère beaucoup plus faible que les changements du niveau des

  9. On the contribution of local feedback mechanisms to the range of climate sensitivity in two GCM ensembles

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Webb, M.J.; Senior, C.A.; Sexton, D.M.H.; Ingram, W.J.; Williams, K.D.; Ringer, M.A. [Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, Met Office, Exeter (United Kingdom); McAvaney, B.J.; Colman, R. [Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre (BMRC), Melbourne (Australia); Soden, B.J. [University of Miami, Rosenstiel School for Marine and Atmospheric Science, Miami, FL (United States); Gudgel, R.; Knutson, T. [Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), Princeton, NJ (United States); Emori, S.; Ogura, T. [National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Tsukuba (Japan); Tsushima, Y. [Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Frontier Research Center for Global Change (FRCGC), Kanagawa (Japan); Andronova, N. [University of Michigan, Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Space Sciences, Ann Arbor, MI (United States); Li, B. [University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign (UIUC), Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Urbana, IL (United States); Musat, I.; Bony, S. [Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL), Paris (France); Taylor, K.E. [Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2006-07-15

    Global and local feedback analysis techniques have been applied to two ensembles of mixed layer equilibrium CO{sub 2} doubling climate change experiments, from the CFMIP (Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project) and QUMP (Quantifying Uncertainty in Model Predictions) projects. Neither of these new ensembles shows evidence of a statistically significant change in the ensemble mean or variance in global mean climate sensitivity when compared with the results from the mixed layer models quoted in the Third Assessment Report of the IPCC. Global mean feedback analysis of these two ensembles confirms the large contribution made by inter-model differences in cloud feedbacks to those in climate sensitivity in earlier studies; net cloud feedbacks are responsible for 66% of the inter-model variance in the total feedback in the CFMIP ensemble and 85% in the QUMP ensemble. The ensemble mean global feedback components are all statistically indistinguishable between the two ensembles, except for the clear-sky shortwave feedback which is stronger in the CFMIP ensemble. While ensemble variances of the shortwave cloud feedback and both clear-sky feedback terms are larger in CFMIP, there is considerable overlap in the cloud feedback ranges; QUMP spans 80% or more of the CFMIP ranges in longwave and shortwave cloud feedback. We introduce a local cloud feedback classification system which distinguishes different types of cloud feedbacks on the basis of the relative strengths of their longwave and shortwave components, and interpret these in terms of responses of different cloud types diagnosed by the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project simulator. In the CFMIP ensemble, areas where low-top cloud changes constitute the largest cloud response are responsible for 59% of the contribution from cloud feedback to the variance in the total feedback. A similar figure is found for the QUMP ensemble. Areas of positive low cloud feedback (associated with reductions in low level

  10. High-resolution paleolimnology opens new management perspectives for lakes adaptation to climate warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marie-Elodie ePerga

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Varved lake sediments provide opportunities for high-resolution paleolimnological investigations that may extend monitoring surveys in order to target priority management actions under climate warming. This paper provides the synthesis of an international research program relying on >150 years-long, varved records for three managed perialpine lakes in Europe (Lakes Geneva, Annecy and Bourget. The dynamics of the dominant, local human pressures, as well as the ecological responses in the pelagic, benthic and littoral habitats were reconstructed using classical and newly developed paleo-proxies. Statistical modelling achieved the hierarchization of the drivers of their ecological trajectories. All three lakes underwent different levels of eutrophication in the first half of the XXth century, followed by re-oligotrophication. Climate warming came along with a 2°C increase in air temperature over the last century, to which lakes were unequally thermally vulnerable. Unsurprisingly, phosphorous concentration has been the dominant ecological driver over the last century. Yet, other human-influenced, local environmental drivers (fisheries management practices, river regulations have also significantly inflected ecological trajectories. Climate change has been impacting all habitats at rates that, in some cases, exceeded those of local factors. The amplitude and ecological responses to similar climate change varied between lakes, but, at least for pelagic habitats, rather depended on the intensity of local human pressures than on the thermal effect of climate change. Deep habitats yet showed higher sensitivity to climate change but substantial influence of river flows. As a consequence, adapted local management strategies, fully integrating nutrient inputs, fisheries management and hydrological regulations, may enable mitigating the deleterious consequences of ongoing climate change on these ecosystems.

  11. Online high sensitivity measurement system for transuranic aerosols

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kordas, J.F.; Phelps, P.L.

    1976-01-01

    A measurement system for transuranic aerosols has been designed that will be able to withstand the corrosive nature of stack effluents and yet have extremely high sensitivity. It will be capable of measuring 1 maximum permissible concentration (MPC) of plutonium or americium in 30 minutes with a fractional standard deviation of less than 0.33. Background resulting from 218 Po is eliminated by alpha energy discrimination and a decay scheme analysis. A microprocessor controls all data acquisition, data reduction, and instrument calibration

  12. Multi-scale enhancement of climate prediction over land by improving the model sensitivity to vegetation variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alessandri, A.; Catalano, F.; De Felice, M.; Hurk, B. V. D.; Doblas-Reyes, F. J.; Boussetta, S.; Balsamo, G.; Miller, P. A.

    2017-12-01

    Here we demonstrate, for the first time, that the implementation of a realistic representation of vegetation in Earth System Models (ESMs) can significantly improve climate simulation and prediction across multiple time-scales. The effective sub-grid vegetation fractional coverage vary seasonally and at interannual time-scales in response to leaf-canopy growth, phenology and senescence. Therefore it affects biophysical parameters such as the surface resistance to evapotranspiration, albedo, roughness lenght, and soil field capacity. To adequately represent this effect in the EC-Earth ESM, we included an exponential dependence of the vegetation cover on the Leaf Area Index.By comparing two sets of simulations performed with and without the new variable fractional-coverage parameterization, spanning from centennial (20th Century) simulations and retrospective predictions to the decadal (5-years), seasonal (2-4 months) and weather (4 days) time-scales, we show for the first time a significant multi-scale enhancement of vegetation impacts in climate simulation and prediction over land. Particularly large effects at multiple time scales are shown over boreal winter middle-to-high latitudes over Canada, West US, Eastern Europe, Russia and eastern Siberia due to the implemented time-varying shadowing effect by tree-vegetation on snow surfaces. Over Northern Hemisphere boreal forest regions the improved representation of vegetation-cover consistently correct the winter warm biases, improves the climate change sensitivity, the decadal potential predictability as well as the skill of forecasts at seasonal and weather time-scales. Significant improvements of the prediction of 2m temperature and rainfall are also shown over transitional land surface hot spots. Both the potential predictability at decadal time-scale and seasonal-forecasts skill are enhanced over Sahel, North American Great Plains, Nordeste Brazil and South East Asia, mainly related to improved performance in

  13. Recent trends in high spin sensitivity magnetic resonance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blank, Aharon; Twig, Ygal; Ishay, Yakir

    2017-07-01

    new ideas, show how these limiting factors can be mitigated to significantly improve the sensitivity of induction detection. Finally, we outline some directions for the possible applications of high-sensitivity induction detection in the field of electron spin resonance.

  14. Sensitivity of peak flow to the change of rainfall temporal pattern due to warmer climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fadhel, Sherien; Rico-Ramirez, Miguel Angel; Han, Dawei

    2018-05-01

    The widely used design storms in urban drainage networks has different drawbacks. One of them is that the shape of the rainfall temporal pattern is fixed regardless of climate change. However, previous studies have shown that the temporal pattern may scale with temperature due to climate change, which consequently affects peak flow. Thus, in addition to the scaling of the rainfall volume, the scaling relationship for the rainfall temporal pattern with temperature needs to be investigated by deriving the scaling values for each fraction within storm events, which is lacking in many parts of the world including the UK. Therefore, this study analysed rainfall data from 28 gauges close to the study area with a 15-min resolution as well as the daily temperature data. It was found that, at warmer temperatures, the rainfall temporal pattern becomes less uniform, with more intensive peak rainfall during higher intensive times and weaker rainfall during less intensive times. This is the case for storms with and without seasonal separations. In addition, the scaling values for both the rainfall volume and the rainfall fractions (i.e. each segment of rainfall temporal pattern) for the summer season were found to be higher than the corresponding results for the winter season. Applying the derived scaling values for the temporal pattern of the summer season in a hydrodynamic sewer network model produced high percentage change of peak flow between the current and future climate. This study on the scaling of rainfall fractions is the first in the UK, and its findings are of importance to modellers and designers of sewer systems because it can provide more robust scenarios for flooding mitigation in urban areas.

  15. Sensitivity properties of a biosphere model based on BATS and a statistical-dynamical climate model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, T. (Yale Univ., New Haven, CT (United States))

    1994-06-01

    A biosphere model based on the Biosphere-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS) and the Saltzman-Vernekar (SV) statistical-dynamical climate model is developed. Some equations of BATS are adopted either intact or with modifications, some are conceptually modified, and still others are replaced with equations of the SV model. The model is designed so that it can be run independently as long as the parameters related to the physiology and physiognomy of the vegetation, the atmospheric conditions, solar radiation, and soil conditions are given. With this stand-alone biosphere model, a series of sensitivity investigations, particularly the model sensitivity to fractional area of vegetation cover, soil surface water availability, and solar radiation for different types of vegetation, were conducted as a first step. These numerical experiments indicate that the presence of a vegetation cover greatly enhances the exchanges of momentum, water vapor, and energy between the atmosphere and the surface of the earth. An interesting result is that a dense and thick vegetation cover tends to serve as an environment conditioner or, more specifically, a thermostat and a humidistat, since the soil surface temperature, foliage temperature, and temperature and vapor pressure of air within the foliage are practically insensitive to variation of soil surface water availability and even solar radiation within a wide range. An attempt is also made to simulate the gradual deterioration of environment accompanying gradual degradation of a tropical forest to grasslands. Comparison with field data shows that this model can realistically simulate the land surface processes involving biospheric variations. 46 refs., 10 figs., 6 tabs.

  16. High-sensitivity bend angle measurements using optical fiber gratings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rauf, Abdul; Zhao, Jianlin; Jiang, Biqiang

    2013-07-20

    We present a high-sensitivity and more flexible bend measurement method, which is based on the coupling of core mode to the cladding modes at the bending region in concatenation with optical fiber grating serving as band reflector. The characteristics of a bend sensing arm composed of bending region and optical fiber grating is examined for different configurations including single fiber Bragg grating (FBG), chirped FBG (CFBG), and double FBGs. The bend loss curves for coated, stripped, and etched sections of fiber in the bending region with FBG, CFBG, and double FBG are obtained experimentally. The effect of separation between bending region and optical fiber grating on loss is measured. The loss responses for single FBG and CFBG configurations are compared to discover the effectiveness for practical applications. It is demonstrated that the sensitivity of the double FBG scheme is twice that of the single FBG and CFBG configurations, and hence acts as sensitivity multiplier. The bend loss response for different fiber diameters obtained through etching in 40% hydrofluoric acid, is measured in double FBG scheme that resulted in a significant increase in the sensitivity, and reduction of dead-zone.

  17. Sensitivity of wetland hydrology to external climate forcing in central Florida

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lammertsma, Emmy I.; Donders, Timme H.; Pearce, Christof; Cremer, Holger; Gaiser, Evelyn E.; Wagner-Cremer, Friederike

    2015-11-01

    Available proxy records from the Florida peninsula give a varying view on hydrological changes during the late Holocene. Here we evaluate the consistency and sensitivity of local wetland records in relation to hydrological changes over the past 5 ka based on pollen and diatom proxies from peat cores in Highlands Hammock State Park, central Florida. Around 5 cal ka BP, a dynamic floodplain environment is present. Subsequently, a wetland forest establishes, followed by a change to persistent wet conditions between 2.5 and 2.0 ka. Long hydroperiods remain despite gradual succession and basin infilling with maximum wet conditions between 1.3 and 1.0 ka. The wet phase and subsequent strong drying over the last millennium, as indicated by shifts in both pollen and diatom assemblages, can be linked to the early Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age, respectively, driven by regionally higher sea-surface temperatures and a temporary northward migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. Changes during the 20th century are the result of constructions intended to protect the Highlands Hammock State Park from wildfires. The multiple cores and proxies allow distinguishing local and regional hydrological changes. The peat records reflect relatively subtle climatic changes that are not evident from regional pollen records from lakes.

  18. State-Dependence of the Climate Sensitivity in Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pfister, Patrik L.; Stocker, Thomas F.

    2017-10-01

    Growing evidence from general circulation models (GCMs) indicates that the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) depends on the magnitude of forcing, which is commonly referred to as state-dependence. We present a comprehensive assessment of ECS state-dependence in Earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs) by analyzing millennial simulations with sustained 2×CO2 and 4×CO2 forcings. We compare different extrapolation methods and show that ECS is smaller in the higher-forcing scenario in 12 out of 15 EMICs, in contrast to the opposite behavior reported from GCMs. In one such EMIC, the Bern3D-LPX model, this state-dependence is mainly due to the weakening sea ice-albedo feedback in the Southern Ocean, which depends on model configuration. Due to ocean-mixing adjustments, state-dependence is only detected hundreds of years after the abrupt forcing, highlighting the need for long model integrations. Adjustments to feedback parametrizations of EMICs may be necessary if GCM intercomparisons confirm an opposite state-dependence.

  19. Constraining climate sensitivity and continental versus seafloor weathering using an inverse geological carbon cycle model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krissansen-Totton, Joshua; Catling, David C

    2017-05-22

    The relative influences of tectonics, continental weathering and seafloor weathering in controlling the geological carbon cycle are unknown. Here we develop a new carbon cycle model that explicitly captures the kinetics of seafloor weathering to investigate carbon fluxes and the evolution of atmospheric CO 2 and ocean pH since 100 Myr ago. We compare model outputs to proxy data, and rigorously constrain model parameters using Bayesian inverse methods. Assuming our forward model is an accurate representation of the carbon cycle, to fit proxies the temperature dependence of continental weathering must be weaker than commonly assumed. We find that 15-31 °C (1σ) surface warming is required to double the continental weathering flux, versus 3-10 °C in previous work. In addition, continental weatherability has increased 1.7-3.3 times since 100 Myr ago, demanding explanation by uplift and sea-level changes. The average Earth system climate sensitivity is  K (1σ) per CO 2 doubling, which is notably higher than fast-feedback estimates. These conclusions are robust to assumptions about outgassing, modern fluxes and seafloor weathering kinetics.

  20. Why classroom climate matters for children high in anxious solitude: A study of differential susceptibility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hughes, Kathleen; Coplan, Robert J

    2018-03-01

    The goal of the current study was to examine the complex links among anxious solitude, classroom climate, engagement, achievement, and gender. In particular, drawing upon the differential susceptibility hypothesis (Belsky, 1997), we investigated if children high in anxious solitude were particularly sensitive and responsive to the classroom environment. Participants were N = 712 children in Grade 3, drawn from the National Institute of Child and Human Development (NICHD) Study of Early Child Care and Youth Development data set. Classroom climate and engagement were assessed using the Classroom Observation Scale (NICHD, 1998). Teachers completed the Teacher Report Form (Achenbach, 1991) as a measure of anxious solitude and the Academic Rating Scale (NICHD, 2010) as a measure of achievement. Hypothesized associations among variables were tested by way of a moderated-mediation model. Among the results, engagement was found to mediate the relation between classroom climate and achievement. In addition, anxious solitude and gender were found to moderate the relation between classroom climate and engagement. Support for the differential susceptibility hypothesis was found, suggesting that children high in anxious solitude may be more reactive (both positively and negatively) to elements of the classroom environment. In addition, gender differences were observed, indicating that boys may be more responsive to the classroom environment as compared with girls. Implications for future research and educational policies are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

  1. Effects of snow grain shape on climate simulations: sensitivity tests with the Norwegian Earth System Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Räisänen

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Snow consists of non-spherical grains of various shapes and sizes. Still, in radiative transfer calculations, snow grains are often treated as spherical. This also applies to the computation of snow albedo in the Snow, Ice, and Aerosol Radiation (SNICAR model and in the Los Alamos sea ice model, version 4 (CICE4, both of which are employed in the Community Earth System Model and in the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM. In this study, we evaluate the effect of snow grain shape on climate simulated by NorESM in a slab ocean configuration of the model. An experiment with spherical snow grains (SPH is compared with another (NONSPH in which the snow shortwave single-scattering properties are based on a combination of three non-spherical snow grain shapes optimized using measurements of angular scattering by blowing snow. The key difference between these treatments is that the asymmetry parameter is smaller in the non-spherical case (0.77–0.78 in the visible region than in the spherical case ( ≈  0.89. Therefore, for the same effective snow grain size (or equivalently, the same specific projected area, the snow broadband albedo is higher when assuming non-spherical rather than spherical snow grains, typically by 0.02–0.03. Considering the spherical case as the baseline, this results in an instantaneous negative change in net shortwave radiation with a global-mean top-of-the-model value of ca. −0.22 W m−2. Although this global-mean radiative effect is rather modest, the impacts on the climate simulated by NorESM are substantial. The global annual-mean 2 m air temperature in NONSPH is 1.17 K lower than in SPH, with substantially larger differences at high latitudes. The climatic response is amplified by strong snow and sea ice feedbacks. It is further demonstrated that the effect of snow grain shape could be largely offset by adjusting the snow grain size. When assuming non-spherical snow grains with the parameterized grain

  2. Effects of snow grain shape on climate simulations: sensitivity tests with the Norwegian Earth System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Räisänen, Petri; Makkonen, Risto; Kirkevåg, Alf; Debernard, Jens B.

    2017-12-01

    Snow consists of non-spherical grains of various shapes and sizes. Still, in radiative transfer calculations, snow grains are often treated as spherical. This also applies to the computation of snow albedo in the Snow, Ice, and Aerosol Radiation (SNICAR) model and in the Los Alamos sea ice model, version 4 (CICE4), both of which are employed in the Community Earth System Model and in the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM). In this study, we evaluate the effect of snow grain shape on climate simulated by NorESM in a slab ocean configuration of the model. An experiment with spherical snow grains (SPH) is compared with another (NONSPH) in which the snow shortwave single-scattering properties are based on a combination of three non-spherical snow grain shapes optimized using measurements of angular scattering by blowing snow. The key difference between these treatments is that the asymmetry parameter is smaller in the non-spherical case (0.77-0.78 in the visible region) than in the spherical case ( ≈ 0.89). Therefore, for the same effective snow grain size (or equivalently, the same specific projected area), the snow broadband albedo is higher when assuming non-spherical rather than spherical snow grains, typically by 0.02-0.03. Considering the spherical case as the baseline, this results in an instantaneous negative change in net shortwave radiation with a global-mean top-of-the-model value of ca. -0.22 W m-2. Although this global-mean radiative effect is rather modest, the impacts on the climate simulated by NorESM are substantial. The global annual-mean 2 m air temperature in NONSPH is 1.17 K lower than in SPH, with substantially larger differences at high latitudes. The climatic response is amplified by strong snow and sea ice feedbacks. It is further demonstrated that the effect of snow grain shape could be largely offset by adjusting the snow grain size. When assuming non-spherical snow grains with the parameterized grain size increased by ca. 70 %, the

  3. Process based model sheds light on climate sensitivity of Mediterranean tree-ring width

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Touchan

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available We use the process-based VS (Vaganov-Shashkin model to investigate whether a regional Pinus halepensis tree-ring chronology from Tunisia can be simulated as a function of climate alone by employing a biological model linking day length and daily temperature and precipitation (AD 1959–2004 from a climate station to ring-width variations. We check performance of the model on independent data by a validation exercise in which the model's parameters are tuned using data for 1982–2004 and the model is applied to generate tree-ring indices for 1959–1981. The validation exercise yields a highly significant positive correlation between the residual chronology and estimated growth curve (r=0.76 p<0.0001, n=23. The model shows that the average duration of the growing season is 191 days, with considerable variation from year to year. On average, soil moisture limits tree-ring growth for 128 days and temperature for 63 days. Model results depend on chosen values of parameters, in particular a parameter specifying a balance ratio between soil moisture and precipitation. Future work in the Mediterranean region should include multi-year natural experiments to verify patterns of cambial-growth variation suggested by the VS model.

  4. Towards highly sensitive strain sensing based on nanostructured materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dao, Dzung Viet; Nakamura, Koichi; Sugiyama, Susumu; Bui, Tung Thanh; Dau, Van Thanh; Yamada, Takeo; Hata, Kenji

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents our recent theoretical and experimental study of piezo-effects in nanostructured materials for highly sensitive, high resolution mechanical sensors. The piezo-effects presented here include the piezoresistive effect in a silicon nanowire (SiNW) and single wall carbon nanotube (SWCNT) thin film, as well as the piezo-optic effect in a Si photonic crystal (PhC) nanocavity. Firstly, the electronic energy band structure of the silicon nanostructure is discussed and simulated by using the First-Principles Calculations method. The result showed a remarkably different energy band structure compared with that of bulk silicon. This difference in the electronic state will result in different physical, chemical, and therefore, sensing properties of silicon nanostructures. The piezoresistive effects of SiNW and SWCNT thin film were investigated experimentally. We found that, when the width of ( 110 ) p-type SiNW decreases from 500 to 35 nm, the piezoresistive effect increases by more than 60%. The longitudinal piezoresistive coefficient of SWCNT thin film was measured to be twice that of bulk p-type silicon. Finally, theoretical investigations of the piezo-optic effect in a PhC nanocavity based on Finite Difference Time Domain (FDTD) showed extremely high resolution strain sensing. These nanostructures were fabricated based on top-down nanofabrication technology. The achievements of this work are significant for highly sensitive, high resolution and miniaturized mechanical sensors

  5. High sensitivity tests of the standard model for electroweak interactions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koetke, D.D.

    1992-01-01

    The work done on this project was focussed mainly on LAMPF experiment E969 known as the MEGA experiment, a high sensitivity search for the lepton family number violating decay μ → eγ to a sensitivity which, measured in terms of the branching ratio, BR = [μ→eγ]/[μ→e ν μ ν e ] ∼10 -13 is over two orders of magnitude better than previously reported values. The work done on MEGA during this period was divided between that done at Valparaiso University and that done at LAMPF. In addition, some contributions were made to a proposal to the LAMPF PAC to perform a precision measurement of the Michel ρ parameter, described below

  6. High sensitivity tests of the standard model for electroweak interactions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1994-01-01

    The work done on this project focused on two LAMPF experiments. The MEGA experiment is a high-sensitivity search for the lepton family number violating decay μ → eγ to a sensitivity which, measured in terms of the branching ratio, BR = [μ → eγ]/[μ eν μ ν e ] ∼ 10 -13 , will be over two orders of magnitude better than previously reported values. The second is a precision measurement of the Michel ρ parameter from the positron energy spectrum of μ → eν μ ν e to test the predictions V-A theory of weak interactions. In this experiment the uncertainty in the measurement of the Michel ρ parameter is expected to be a factor of three lower than the present reported value. The detectors are operational, and data taking has begun

  7. High sensitivity tests of the standard model for electroweak interactions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koetke, D.D.; Manweiler, R.W.; Shirvel Stanislaus, T.D.

    1993-01-01

    The work done on this project was focused on two LAMPF experiments. The MEGA experiment, a high-sensitivity search for the lepton-family-number-violating decay μ → e γ to a sensitivity which, measured in terms of the branching ratio, BR = [μ → e γ]/[μ → ev μ v e ] ∼ 10 -13 , is over two orders of magnitude better than previously reported values. The second is a precision measurement of the Michel ρ parameter from the positron energy spectrum of μ → ev μ v e to test the V-A theory of weak interactions. The uncertainty in the measurement of the Michel ρ parameter is expected to be a factor of three lower than the present reported value

  8. High sensitive quench detection method using an integrated test wire

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fevrier, A.; Tavergnier, J.P.; Nithart, H.; Kiblaire, M.; Duchateau, J.L.

    1981-01-01

    A high sensitive quench detection method which works even in the presence of an external perturbing magnetic field is reported. The quench signal is obtained from the difference in voltages at the superconducting winding terminals and at the terminals at a secondary winding strongly coupled to the primary. The secondary winding could consist of a ''zero-current strand'' of the superconducting cable not connected to one of the winding terminals or an integrated normal test wire inside the superconducting cable. Experimental results on quench detection obtained by this method are described. It is shown that the integrated test wire method leads to efficient and sensitive quench detection, especially in the presence of an external perturbing magnetic field

  9. Development of miniature γ dose rate monitor with high sensitivity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shi Huilu; Tuo Xianguo; Xi Dashun; Tang Rong; Mu Keliang; Yang Jianbo

    2009-01-01

    This paper introduces a miniature γ dose rate monitor with high sensitivity which design based on single chip microcomputer, it can continue monitoring γ dose rate and then choose wire or wireless communications to sent the monitoring data to host according to the actual conditions. It has two kinds of power supply system, AC power supply system and battery which can be chose by concrete circumstances. The design idea and implementation technology of hardware and software and the system structure of the monitor are detailed illustrated in this paper. The experimental results show that measurable range is 0.1 mR/h-200 mR/h, the sensitivity of γ is 90 cps/mR/h, dead time below 200 us, error of stability below ±10%. (authors)

  10. Polymer-Particle Pressure-Sensitive Paint with High Photostability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu Matsuda

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available We propose a novel fast-responding and paintable pressure-sensitive paint (PSP based on polymer particles, i.e. polymer-particle (pp-PSP. As a fast-responding PSP, polymer-ceramic (PC-PSP is widely studied. Since PC-PSP generally consists of titanium (IV oxide (TiO2 particles, a large reduction in the luminescent intensity will occur due to the photocatalytic action of TiO2. We propose the usage of polymer particles instead of TiO2 particles to prevent the reduction in the luminescent intensity. Here, we fabricate pp-PSP based on the polystyrene particle with a diameter of 1 μm, and investigate the pressure- and temperature-sensitives, the response time, and the photostability. The performances of pp-PSP are compared with those of PC-PSP, indicating the high photostability with the other characteristics comparable to PC-PSP.

  11. Field test investigation of high sensitivity fiber optic seismic geophone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Meng; Min, Li; Zhang, Xiaolei; Zhang, Faxiang; Sun, Zhihui; Li, Shujuan; Wang, Chang; Zhao, Zhong; Hao, Guanghu

    2017-10-01

    Seismic reflection, whose measured signal is the artificial seismic waves ,is the most effective method and widely used in the geophysical prospecting. And this method can be used for exploration of oil, gas and coal. When a seismic wave travelling through the Earth encounters an interface between two materials with different acoustic impedances, some of the wave energy will reflect off the interface and some will refract through the interface. At its most basic, the seismic reflection technique consists of generating seismic waves and measuring the time taken for the waves to travel from the source, reflect off an interface and be detected by an array of geophones at the surface. Compared to traditional geophones such as electric, magnetic, mechanical and gas geophone, optical fiber geophones have many advantages. Optical fiber geophones can achieve sensing and signal transmission simultaneously. With the development of fiber grating sensor technology, fiber bragg grating (FBG) is being applied in seismic exploration and draws more and more attention to its advantage of anti-electromagnetic interference, high sensitivity and insensitivity to meteorological conditions. In this paper, we designed a high sensitivity geophone and tested its sensitivity, based on the theory of FBG sensing. The frequency response range is from 10 Hz to 100 Hz and the acceleration of the fiber optic seismic geophone is over 1000pm/g. sixteen-element fiber optic seismic geophone array system is presented and the field test is performed in Shengli oilfield of China. The field test shows that: (1) the fiber optic seismic geophone has a higher sensitivity than the traditional geophone between 1-100 Hz;(2) The low frequency reflection wave continuity of fiber Bragg grating geophone is better.

  12. A CMOS In-Pixel CTIA High Sensitivity Fluorescence Imager.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murari, Kartikeya; Etienne-Cummings, Ralph; Thakor, Nitish; Cauwenberghs, Gert

    2011-10-01

    Traditionally, charge coupled device (CCD) based image sensors have held sway over the field of biomedical imaging. Complementary metal oxide semiconductor (CMOS) based imagers so far lack sensitivity leading to poor low-light imaging. Certain applications including our work on animal-mountable systems for imaging in awake and unrestrained rodents require the high sensitivity and image quality of CCDs and the low power consumption, flexibility and compactness of CMOS imagers. We present a 132×124 high sensitivity imager array with a 20.1 μm pixel pitch fabricated in a standard 0.5 μ CMOS process. The chip incorporates n-well/p-sub photodiodes, capacitive transimpedance amplifier (CTIA) based in-pixel amplification, pixel scanners and delta differencing circuits. The 5-transistor all-nMOS pixel interfaces with peripheral pMOS transistors for column-parallel CTIA. At 70 fps, the array has a minimum detectable signal of 4 nW/cm(2) at a wavelength of 450 nm while consuming 718 μA from a 3.3 V supply. Peak signal to noise ratio (SNR) was 44 dB at an incident intensity of 1 μW/cm(2). Implementing 4×4 binning allowed the frame rate to be increased to 675 fps. Alternately, sensitivity could be increased to detect about 0.8 nW/cm(2) while maintaining 70 fps. The chip was used to image single cell fluorescence at 28 fps with an average SNR of 32 dB. For comparison, a cooled CCD camera imaged the same cell at 20 fps with an average SNR of 33.2 dB under the same illumination while consuming over a watt.

  13. On the mechanisms of warming the mid-Pliocene and the inference of a hierarchy of climate sensitivities with relevance to the understanding of climate futures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Chandan

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available We present results from our investigation into the physical mechanisms through which the mid-Pliocene, with a pCO2 of only  ∼  400 ppmv, could have supported the same magnitude of global warmth as has been projected for the climate at the end of the 21st century when pCO2 is expected to be 3 times higher. These mechanisms allow us to understand the warming in terms of changes to the radiative properties of the surface, the clouds, greenhouse gases, and changes to the meridional heat transport. We find that two-thirds of the warming pervasive during the mid-Pliocene, compared to the preindustrial, could be attributed to the reduction in the planetary emissivity owing to the higher concentrations of the greenhouse gases CO2 and water vapor, and the remaining one-third to the reduction in planetary albedo. We also find that changes to the orography and the pCO2 are the leading causes of the warming with each contributing in roughly equal parts to a total of 87 % of the warming and changes to the polar ice sheets responsible for the remaining warming. Furthermore, we provide a mid-Pliocene perspective on ongoing efforts to understand the climate system's sensitivity at various timescales and using multiple lines of evidence. The similarities in the boundary conditions between the mid-Pliocene and the present day, together with the globally elevated temperatures, make the mid-Pliocene an ideal paleo time period from which to derive inferences of climate sensitivity and assess the impacts of various timescale-dependent feedback processes. We assess a hierarchy of climate sensitivities of increasing complexity in order to explore the response of the climate over a very large range of timescales. The picture that emerges is as follows: on the short timescale, owing to the influence of fast feedback processes, the climate sensitivity is 3.25 °C per doubling of CO2; sensitivity increases to 4.16 °C per doubling of CO2 on an intermediate

  14. Highly sensitive detection of urinary cadmium to assess personal exposure

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Argun, Avni A.; Banks, Ashley M.; Merlen, Gwendolynne; Tempelman, Linda A. [Giner, Inc., 89 Rumford Ave., Newton 02466, MA United States (United States); Becker, Michael F.; Schuelke, Thomas [Fraunhofer USA – CCL, 1449 Engineering Research Ct., East Lansing 48824, MI (United States); Dweik, Badawi M., E-mail: bdweik@ginerinc.com [Giner, Inc., 89 Rumford Ave., Newton 02466, MA United States (United States)

    2013-04-22

    Highlights: ► An electrochemical sensor capable of detecting cadmium at parts-per-billion levels in urine. ► A novel fabrication method for Boron-Doped Diamond (BDD) ultramicroelectrode (UME) arrays. ► Unique combination of BDD UME arrays and a differential pulse voltammetry algorithm. ► High sensitivity, high reproducibility, and very low noise levels. ► Opportunity for portable operation to assess on-site personal exposure. -- Abstract: A series of Boron-Doped Diamond (BDD) ultramicroelectrode arrays were fabricated and investigated for their performance as electrochemical sensors to detect trace level metals such as cadmium. The steady-state diffusion behavior of these sensors was validated using cyclic voltammetry followed by electrochemical detection of cadmium in water and in human urine to demonstrate high sensitivity (>200 μA ppb{sup −1} cm{sup −2}) and low background current (<4 nA). When an array of ultramicroelectrodes was positioned with optimal spacing, these BDD sensors showed a sigmoidal diffusion behavior. They also demonstrated high accuracy with linear dose dependence for quantification of cadmium in a certified reference river water sample from the U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) as well as in a human urine sample spiked with 0.25–1 ppb cadmium.

  15. Permafrost carbon−climate feedback is sensitive to deep soil carbon decomposability but not deep soil nitrogen dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koven, Charles D.; Lawrence, David M.; Riley, William J.

    2015-01-01

    Permafrost soils contain enormous amounts of organic carbon whose stability is contingent on remaining frozen. With future warming, these soils may release carbon to the atmosphere and act as a positive feedback to climate change. Significant uncertainty remains on the postthaw carbon dynamics of permafrost-affected ecosystems, in particular since most of the carbon resides at depth where decomposition dynamics may differ from surface soils, and since nitrogen mineralized by decomposition may enhance plant growth. Here we show, using a carbon−nitrogen model that includes permafrost processes forced in an unmitigated warming scenario, that the future carbon balance of the permafrost region is highly sensitive to the decomposability of deeper carbon, with the net balance ranging from 21 Pg C to 164 Pg C losses by 2300. Increased soil nitrogen mineralization reduces nutrient limitations, but the impact of deep nitrogen on the carbon budget is small due to enhanced nitrogen availability from warming surface soils and seasonal asynchrony between deeper nitrogen availability and plant nitrogen demands. Although nitrogen dynamics are highly uncertain, the future carbon balance of this region is projected to hinge more on the rate and extent of permafrost thaw and soil decomposition than on enhanced nitrogen availability for vegetation growth resulting from permafrost thaw. PMID:25775603

  16. Potential costs of acclimatization to a warmer climate: growth of a reef coral with heat tolerant vs. sensitive symbiont types.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alison Jones

    Full Text Available One of the principle ways in which reef building corals are likely to cope with a warmer climate is by changing to more thermally tolerant endosymbiotic algae (zooxanthellae genotypes. It is highly likely that hosting a more heat-tolerant algal genotype will be accompanied by tradeoffs in the physiology of the coral. To better understand one of these tradeoffs, growth was investigated in the Indo-Pacific reef-building coral Acropora millepora in both the laboratory and the field. In the Keppel Islands in the southern Great Barrier Reef this species naturally harbors nrDNA ITS1 thermally sensitive type C2 or thermally tolerant type D zooxanthellae of the genus Symbiodinium and can change dominant type following bleaching. We show that under controlled conditions, corals with type D symbionts grow 29% slower than those with type C2 symbionts. In the field, type D colonies grew 38% slower than C2 colonies. These results demonstrate the magnitude of trade-offs likely to be experienced by this species as they acclimatize to warmer conditions by changing to more thermally tolerant type D zooxanthellae. Irrespective of symbiont genotype, corals were affected to an even greater degree by the stress of a bleaching event which reduced growth by more than 50% for up to 18 months compared to pre-bleaching rates. The processes of symbiont change and acute thermal stress are likely to act in concert on coral growth as reefs acclimatize to more stressful warmer conditions, further compromising their regeneration capacity following climate change.

  17. Potential Costs of Acclimatization to a Warmer Climate: Growth of a Reef Coral with Heat Tolerant vs. Sensitive Symbiont Types

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Alison; Berkelmans, Ray

    2010-01-01

    One of the principle ways in which reef building corals are likely to cope with a warmer climate is by changing to more thermally tolerant endosymbiotic algae (zooxanthellae) genotypes. It is highly likely that hosting a more heat-tolerant algal genotype will be accompanied by tradeoffs in the physiology of the coral. To better understand one of these tradeoffs, growth was investigated in the Indo-Pacific reef-building coral Acropora millepora in both the laboratory and the field. In the Keppel Islands in the southern Great Barrier Reef this species naturally harbors nrDNA ITS1 thermally sensitive type C2 or thermally tolerant type D zooxanthellae of the genus Symbiodinium and can change dominant type following bleaching. We show that under controlled conditions, corals with type D symbionts grow 29% slower than those with type C2 symbionts. In the field, type D colonies grew 38% slower than C2 colonies. These results demonstrate the magnitude of trade-offs likely to be experienced by this species as they acclimatize to warmer conditions by changing to more thermally tolerant type D zooxanthellae. Irrespective of symbiont genotype, corals were affected to an even greater degree by the stress of a bleaching event which reduced growth by more than 50% for up to 18 months compared to pre-bleaching rates. The processes of symbiont change and acute thermal stress are likely to act in concert on coral growth as reefs acclimatize to more stressful warmer conditions, further compromising their regeneration capacity following climate change. PMID:20454653

  18. Potential costs of acclimatization to a warmer climate: growth of a reef coral with heat tolerant vs. sensitive symbiont types.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Alison; Berkelmans, Ray

    2010-05-03

    One of the principle ways in which reef building corals are likely to cope with a warmer climate is by changing to more thermally tolerant endosymbiotic algae (zooxanthellae) genotypes. It is highly likely that hosting a more heat-tolerant algal genotype will be accompanied by tradeoffs in the physiology of the coral. To better understand one of these tradeoffs, growth was investigated in the Indo-Pacific reef-building coral Acropora millepora in both the laboratory and the field. In the Keppel Islands in the southern Great Barrier Reef this species naturally harbors nrDNA ITS1 thermally sensitive type C2 or thermally tolerant type D zooxanthellae of the genus Symbiodinium and can change dominant type following bleaching. We show that under controlled conditions, corals with type D symbionts grow 29% slower than those with type C2 symbionts. In the field, type D colonies grew 38% slower than C2 colonies. These results demonstrate the magnitude of trade-offs likely to be experienced by this species as they acclimatize to warmer conditions by changing to more thermally tolerant type D zooxanthellae. Irrespective of symbiont genotype, corals were affected to an even greater degree by the stress of a bleaching event which reduced growth by more than 50% for up to 18 months compared to pre-bleaching rates. The processes of symbiont change and acute thermal stress are likely to act in concert on coral growth as reefs acclimatize to more stressful warmer conditions, further compromising their regeneration capacity following climate change.

  19. High order effects in cross section sensitivity analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Greenspan, E.; Karni, Y.; Gilai, D.

    1978-01-01

    Two types of high order effects associated with perturbations in the flux shape are considered: Spectral Fine Structure Effects (SFSE) and non-linearity between changes in performance parameters and data uncertainties. SFSE are investigated in Part I using a simple single resonance model. Results obtained for each of the resolved and for representative unresolved resonances of 238 U in a ZPR-6/7 like environment indicate that SFSE can have a significant contribution to the sensitivity of group constants to resonance parameters. Methods to account for SFSE both for the propagation of uncertainties and for the adjustment of nuclear data are discussed. A Second Order Sensitivity Theory (SOST) is presented, and its accuracy relative to that of the first order sensitivity theory and of the direct substitution method is investigated in Part II. The investigation is done for the non-linear problem of the effect of changes in the 297 keV sodium minimum cross section on the transport of neutrons in a deep-penetration problem. It is found that the SOST provides a satisfactory accuracy for cross section uncertainty analysis. For the same degree of accuracy, the SOST can be significantly more efficient than the direct substitution method

  20. Operationalization of the Russian Version of Highly Sensitive Person Scale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Регина Вячеславовна Ершова

    2018-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the present study was to operationalize a Russian version of the Highly Sensitive Person Scale (HSPS. The empirical data were collected in two ways: active, through oral advertising and inviting those who wish to take part in the study (snowball technique and passive (placement of ads about taking part in a research in social networks VKontakte and Facebook. As a result, 350 university students (117 men, 233 women, an average age of 18,2 (± 1,7 applied to a research laboratory and filled out the HSPS questionnaire, and another 510 respondents (380 women, 130 men, average age 22,6 ( ± 7,9 filled the HSPS online. The results of the study did not confirm the one-dimensional model of the construct, proposed by Aron & Aron (1997, as well as the most commonly used in the English-language studies three-factor solution. The hierarchical claster and confirmatory analyses used in the operationalization procedure allowed us to conclude that the variance of the Russian version of HSPS is best described in the framework of a two-factor model including the two separate subscales: Ease of Excitation (EOE, Low threshold of sensitivity (LTS. Sensory Processing Sensitivity may be defined as an increased susceptibility to external and internal stimuli, realized through negative emotional responses and deep susceptibility (distress to excessive stimulation.

  1. A wide-bandwidth and high-sensitivity robust microgyroscope

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sahin, Korhan; Sahin, Emre; Akin, Tayfun; Alper, Said Emre

    2009-01-01

    This paper reports a microgyroscope design concept with the help of a 2 degrees of freedom (DoF) sense mode to achieve a wide bandwidth without sacrificing mechanical and electronic sensitivity and to obtain robust operation against variations under ambient conditions. The design concept is demonstrated with a tuning fork microgyroscope fabricated with an in-house silicon-on-glass micromachining process. When the fabricated gyroscope is operated with a relatively wide bandwidth of 1 kHz, measurements show a relatively high raw mechanical sensitivity of 131 µV (° s −1 ) −1 . The variation in the amplified mechanical sensitivity (scale factor) of the gyroscope is measured to be less than 0.38% for large ambient pressure variations such as from 40 to 500 mTorr. The bias instability and angle random walk of the gyroscope are measured to be 131° h −1 and 1.15° h −1/2 , respectively

  2. Development of an underwater high sensitivity Cherenkov detector: Sea Urchin

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Camerini, U.; McGibney, D.; Roberts, A.

    1982-01-01

    The need for a high gain, high sensitivity Cherenkov light sensor to be used in a deep underwater muon and neutrino detector (DUMAND) array has led to the design of the Sea Urchin detector. In this design a spherical photocathode PMTis optically coupled through a glass hemisphere to a large number of glass spines, each of which is filled with a wavelength-shifting (WLS) solution of a high quantum efficiency phosphor. The Cherenkov radiation is absorbed in the spine, isotropically re-radiated at a longer wavelength, and a fraction of the fluorescent light is internally reflected in the spine, and guided to the photomultiplier concentrically located in the glass hemisphere. Experiments measuring the optical characteristics of the spines and computer programs simulating light transformation and detection cross sections are described. Overall optical gains in the range 5-10 are achieved. The WLS solution is inexpensive, and may have other applications. (orig.)

  3. Position sensitive detection of neutrons in high radiation background field.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vavrik, D; Jakubek, J; Pospisil, S; Vacik, J

    2014-01-01

    We present the development of a high-resolution position sensitive device for detection of slow neutrons in the environment of extremely high γ and e(-) radiation background. We make use of a planar silicon pixelated (pixel size: 55 × 55 μm(2)) spectroscopic Timepix detector adapted for neutron detection utilizing very thin (10)B converter placed onto detector surface. We demonstrate that electromagnetic radiation background can be discriminated from the neutron signal utilizing the fact that each particle type produces characteristic ionization tracks in the pixelated detector. Particular tracks can be distinguished by their 2D shape (in the detector plane) and spectroscopic response using single event analysis. A Cd sheet served as thermal neutron stopper as well as intensive source of gamma rays and energetic electrons. Highly efficient discrimination was successful even at very low neutron to electromagnetic background ratio about 10(-4).

  4. The Influence of Climate Change on Atmospheric Deposition of Mercury in the Arctic—A Model Sensitivity Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, Kaj M.; Christensen, Jesper H.; Brandt, Jørgen

    2015-01-01

    Mercury (Hg) is a global pollutant with adverse health effects on humans and wildlife. It is of special concern in the Arctic due to accumulation in the food web and exposure of the Arctic population through a rich marine diet. Climate change may alter the exposure of the Arctic population to Hg. We have investigated the effect of climate change on the atmospheric Hg transport to and deposition within the Arctic by making a sensitivity study of how the atmospheric chemistry-transport model Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model (DEHM) reacts to climate change forcing. The total deposition of Hg to the Arctic is 18% lower in the 2090s compared to the 1990s under the applied Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES-A1B) climate scenario. Asia is the major anthropogenic source area (25% of the deposition to the Arctic) followed by Europe (6%) and North America (5%), with the rest arising from the background concentration, and this is independent of the climate. DEHM predicts between a 6% increase (Status Quo scenario) and a 37% decrease (zero anthropogenic emissions scenario) in Hg deposition to the Arctic depending on the applied emission scenario, while the combined effect of future climate and emission changes results in up to 47% lower Hg deposition. PMID:26378551

  5. Beyond exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity: A response based ecological framework to assess species climate change vulnerability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fortini, Lucas B.; Schubert, Olivia

    2017-01-01

    As the impacts of global climate change on species are increasingly evident, there is a clear need to adapt conservation efforts worldwide. Species vulnerability assessments (VAs) are increasingly used to summarize all relevant information to determine a species’ potential vulnerability to climate change and are frequently the first step in informing climate adaptation efforts. VAs commonly integrate multiple sources of information by utilizing a framework that distinguishes factors relevant to species exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. However, this framework was originally developed for human systems, and its use to evaluate species vulnerability has serious practical and theoretical limitations. By instead defining vulnerability as the degree to which a species is unable to exhibit any of the responses necessary for persistence under climate change (i.e., toleration of projected changes, migration to new climate-compatible areas, enduring in microrefugia, and evolutionary adaptation), we can bring VAs into the realm of ecological science without applying borrowed abstract concepts that have consistently challenged species-centric research and management. This response-based framework to assess species vulnerability to climate change allows better integration of relevant ecological data and past research, yielding results with much clearer implications for conservation and research prioritization.

  6. A high-resolution, empirical approach to climate impact assessment for regulatory analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delgado, M.; Simcock, J. G.; Greenstone, M.; Hsiang, S. M.; Kopp, R. E.; Carleton, T.; Hultgren, A.; Jina, A.; Rising, J. A.; Nath, I.; Yuan, J.; Rode, A.; Chong, T.; Dobbels, G.; Hussain, A.; Wang, J.; Song, Y.; Mohan, S.; Larsen, K.; Houser, T.

    2017-12-01

    Recent breakthroughs in computing, data availability, and methodology have precipitated significant advances in the understanding of the relationship between climate and socioeconomic outcomes [1]. And while the use of estimates of the global marginal costs of greenhouse gas emissions (e.g. the SCC) are a mandatory component of regulatory policy in many jurisdictions, existing SCC-IAMs have lagged advances in impact assessment and valuation [2]. Recent work shows that incorporating high spatial and temporal resolution can significantly affect the observed relationships of economic outcomes to climate and socioeconomic factors [3] and that maintaining this granularity is critical to understanding the sensitivity of aggregate measures of valuation to inequality and risk adjustment methodologies [4]. We propose a novel framework that decomposes uncertainty in the SCC along multiple sources, including aggregate climate response parameters, the translation of global climate into local weather, the effect of weather on physical and economic systems, human and macro-economic responses, and impact valuation methodologies. This work extends Hsiang et al. (2017) [4] to directly estimate local response functions for multiple sectors in each of 24,378 global regions and to estimate impacts at this resolution daily, incorporating endogenous, empirically-estimated adaptation and costs. The goal of this work is to provide insight into the heterogeneity of climate impacts and to work with other modeling teams to enhance the empirical grounding of integrated climate impact assessment in more complex energy-environment-economics models. [1] T. Carleton and S. Hsiang (2016), DOI: 10.1126/science.aad9837. [2] National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (2017), DOI: 10.17226/24651. [3] Burke, M., S. Hsiang, and E. Miguel (2015), DOI: 10.1038/nature15725. [4] S. Hsiang et al. (2017), DOI: 10.1126/science.aal4369.

  7. Highly Sensitive Flexible Magnetic Sensor Based on Anisotropic Magnetoresistance Effect.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Zhiguang; Wang, Xinjun; Li, Menghui; Gao, Yuan; Hu, Zhongqiang; Nan, Tianxiang; Liang, Xianfeng; Chen, Huaihao; Yang, Jia; Cash, Syd; Sun, Nian-Xiang

    2016-11-01

    A highly sensitive flexible magnetic sensor based on the anisotropic magnetoresistance effect is fabricated. A limit of detection of 150 nT is observed and excellent deformation stability is achieved after wrapping of the flexible sensor, with bending radii down to 5 mm. The flexible AMR sensor is used to read a magnetic pattern with a thickness of 10 μm that is formed by ferrite magnetic inks. © 2016 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  8. High sensitivity on-line monitor for radioactive effluent

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sasaki, Toshimi [Tohoku Electric Power Co. Ltd., Sendai (Japan); Ishizuka, Akira; Abe, Eisuke; Inoue, Yasuhiko; Fujii, Masaaki; Kitaguchi, Hiroshi; Doi, Akira

    1983-04-01

    A new approach for a highly sensitive effluent monitor is presented. The free flow type monitor, which consists of a straightener, nozzle, monitoring section and ..gamma..-ray detector, is demonstrated to be effective in providing long term stability. The 160 start-and-stop cycles of effluent discharge were repeated in a 120-h testing period. Results showed a background increase was not observed for the free flow type monitor. The background count rate was calibrated to the lowest detection limit to be 2.2 x 10/sup -2/ Bq/ml for a 300 s measurement time.

  9. High-Sensitivity Measurement of Density by Magnetic Levitation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nemiroski, Alex; Kumar, A A; Soh, Siowling; Harburg, Daniel V; Yu, Hai-Dong; Whitesides, George M

    2016-03-01

    This paper presents methods that use Magnetic Levitation (MagLev) to measure very small differences in density of solid diamagnetic objects suspended in a paramagnetic medium. Previous work in this field has shown that, while it is a convenient method, standard MagLev (i.e., where the direction of magnetization and gravitational force are parallel) cannot resolve differences in density mm) because (i) objects close in density prevent each other from reaching an equilibrium height due to hard contact and excluded volume, and (ii) using weaker magnets or reducing the magnetic susceptibility of the medium destabilizes the magnetic trap. The present work investigates the use of weak magnetic gradients parallel to the faces of the magnets as a means of increasing the sensitivity of MagLev without destabilization. Configuring the MagLev device in a rotated state (i.e., where the direction of magnetization and gravitational force are perpendicular) relative to the standard configuration enables simple measurements along the axes with the highest sensitivity to changes in density. Manipulating the distance of separation between the magnets or the lengths of the magnets (along the axis of measurement) enables the sensitivity to be tuned. These modifications enable an improvement in the resolution up to 100-fold over the standard configuration, and measurements with resolution down to 10(-6) g/cm(3). Three examples of characterizing the small differences in density among samples of materials having ostensibly indistinguishable densities-Nylon spheres, PMMA spheres, and drug spheres-demonstrate the applicability of rotated Maglev to measuring the density of small (0.1-1 mm) objects with high sensitivity. This capability will be useful in materials science, separations, and quality control of manufactured objects.

  10. Sensitivity of climate change mitigation estimates to assumptions about technical change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dowlatabadi, H.

    1998-01-01

    With greater certainty in anthropogenic influence on observed changes in climate there is increasing pressure for agreements to control emissions of greenhouse gases ([HOUGHTON]). While it is difficult to assess the appropriate level of mitigation, it has been argued that flexibility in meeting emission targets offers significant economic savings. Such flexibility can be exercised in terms of timing of mitigation (i.e. delay) or geographic location of the intervention (e.g. permit trading and Joint-Implementation). Much of this insight is based on standard models of technical change in energy supply and demand. However, standard model formulations rarely consider: (i) a link between the pattern of technical change and policy interventions; (ii) economies of learning; and (iii) technical progress in discovery and recovery of oil and gas. While there is evidence to support the importance of these factors in historic patterns of technical progress, the data necessary to calibrate internally consistent economic models of these phenomena have not been available. In this paper simple representations of endogenous and induced technical change have been used to explore the sensitivity of mitigation cost estimates to how technical change is represented in energy economics models. The scenarios involve control of CO 2 emissions to limit its concentration to no more than 550 ppm(v), starting in the year 2000, and delayed to 2025. This sensitivity analysis has revealed four robust insights: (i) If endogenous technical change is assumed, expected business as usual emissions are higher than otherwise estimated - nevertheless, while 25% greater CO 2 control is required for meeting the CO 2 concentration target, the cost of mitigation is 40% lower; (ii) If technical progress in oil and gas discovery and recovery is assumed, energy use and CO 2 emissions increase by 75% and 65%, respectively above the standard estimates; (iii) If the economies of learning exhibited in various

  11. High Resolution Modeling of Hurricanes in a Climate Context

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knutson, T. R.

    2007-12-01

    Modeling of tropical cyclone activity in a climate context initially focused on simulation of relatively weak tropical storm-like disturbances as resolved by coarse grid (200 km) global models. As computing power has increased, multi-year simulations with global models of grid spacing 20-30 km have become feasible. Increased resolution also allowed for simulation storms of increasing intensity, and some global models generate storms of hurricane strength, depending on their resolution and other factors, although detailed hurricane structure is not simulated realistically. Results from some recent high resolution global model studies are reviewed. An alternative for hurricane simulation is regional downscaling. An early approach was to embed an operational (GFDL) hurricane prediction model within a global model solution, either for 5-day case studies of particular model storm cases, or for "idealized experiments" where an initial vortex is inserted into an idealized environments derived from global model statistics. Using this approach, hurricanes up to category five intensity can be simulated, owing to the model's relatively high resolution (9 km grid) and refined physics. Variants on this approach have been used to provide modeling support for theoretical predictions that greenhouse warming will increase the maximum intensities of hurricanes. These modeling studies also simulate increased hurricane rainfall rates in a warmer climate. The studies do not address hurricane frequency issues, and vertical shear is neglected in the idealized studies. A recent development is the use of regional model dynamical downscaling for extended (e.g., season-length) integrations of hurricane activity. In a study for the Atlantic basin, a non-hydrostatic model with grid spacing of 18km is run without convective parameterization, but with internal spectral nudging toward observed large-scale (basin wavenumbers 0-2) atmospheric conditions from reanalyses. Using this approach, our

  12. High pressure-sensitive gene expression in Lactobacillus sanfranciscensis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R.F. Vogel

    2005-08-01

    Full Text Available Lactobacillus sanfranciscensis is a Gram-positive lactic acid bacterium used in food biotechnology. It is necessary to investigate many aspects of a model organism to elucidate mechanisms of stress response, to facilitate preparation, application and performance in food fermentation, to understand mechanisms of inactivation, and to identify novel tools for high pressure biotechnology. To investigate the mechanisms of the complex bacterial response to high pressure we have analyzed changes in the proteome and transcriptome by 2-D electrophoresis, and by microarrays and real time PCR, respectively. More than 16 proteins were found to be differentially expressed upon high pressure stress and were compared to those sensitive to other stresses. Except for one apparently high pressure-specific stress protein, no pressure-specific stress proteins were found, and the proteome response to pressure was found to differ from that induced by other stresses. Selected pressure-sensitive proteins were partially sequenced and their genes were identified by reverse genetics. In a transcriptome analysis of a redundancy cleared shot gun library, about 7% of the genes investigated were found to be affected. Most of them appeared to be up-regulated 2- to 4-fold and these results were confirmed by real time PCR. Gene induction was shown for some genes up-regulated at the proteome level (clpL/groEL/rbsK, while the response of others to high hydrostatic pressure at the transcriptome level seemed to differ from that observed at the proteome level. The up-regulation of selected genes supports the view that the cell tries to compensate for pressure-induced impairment of translation and membrane transport.

  13. South Asian high and Asian-Pacific-American climate teleconnection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Peiqun; Song, Yang; Kousky, Vernon E.

    2005-11-01

    Growing evidence indicates that the Asian monsoon plays an important role in affecting the weather and climate outside of Asia. However, this active role of the monsoon has not been demonstrated as thoroughly as has the variability of the monsoon caused by various impacting factors such as sea surface temperature and land surface. This study investigates the relationship between the Asian monsoon and the climate anomalies in the Asian-Pacific-American (APA) sector. A hypothesis is tested that the variability of the upper-tropospheric South Asian high (SAH), which is closely associated with the overall heating of the large-scale Asian monsoon, is linked to changes in the subtropical western Pacific high (SWPH), the mid-Pacific trough, and the Mexican high. The changes in these circulation systems cause variability in surface temperature and precipitation in the APA region. A stronger SAH is accompanied by a stronger and more extensive SWPH. The enlargement of the SWPH weakens the mid-Pacific trough. As a result, the southern portion of the Mexican high becomes stronger. These changes are associated with changes in atmospheric teleconnections, precipitation, and surface temperature throughout the APA region. When the SAH is stronger, precipitation increases in southern Asia, decreases over the Pacific Ocean, and increases over the Central America. Precipitation also increases over Australia and central Africa and decreases in the Mediterranean region. While the signals in surface temperature are weak over the tropical land portion, they are apparent in the mid latitudes and over the eastern Pacific Ocean.

  14. Climate Change Altered Disturbance Regimes in High Elevation Pine Ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Logan, J. A.

    2004-12-01

    Insects in aggregate are the greatest cause of forest disturbance. Outbreaks of both native and exotic insects can be spectacular events in both their intensity and spatial extent. In the case of native species, forest ecosystems have co-evolved (or at least co-adapted) in ways that incorporate these disturbances into the normal cycle of forest maturation and renewal. The time frame of response to changing climate, however, is much shorter for insects (typically one year) than for their host forests (decades or longer). As a result, outbreaks of forest insects, particularly bark beetles, are occurring at unprecedented levels throughout western North America, resulting in the loss of biodiversity and potentially entire ecosystems. In this talk, I will describe one such ecosystem, the whitebark pine association at high elevations in the north-central Rocky Mountains of the United States. White bark pines are keystone species, which in consort with Clark's nutcracker, build entire ecosystems at high elevations. These ecosystems provide valuable ecological services, including the distribution and abundance of water resources. I will briefly describe the keystone nature of whitebark pine and the historic role of mountain pine beetle disturbance in these ecosystems. The mountain pine beetle is the most important outbreak insect in forests of the western United States. Although capable of spectacular outbreak events, in historic climate regimes, outbreak populations were largely restricted to lower elevation pines; for example, lodgepole and ponderosa pines. The recent series of unusually warm years, however, has allowed this insect to expand its range into high elevation, whitebark pine ecosystems with devastating consequences. The aspects of mountain pine beetle thermal ecology that has allowed it to capitalize so effectively on a warming climate will be discussed. A model that incorporates critical thermal attributes of the mountain pine beetle's life cycle was

  15. Ocean acidification over the next three centuries using a simple global climate carbon-cycle model: projections and sensitivities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hartin, Corinne A.; Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; Patel, Pralit; Mundra, Anupriya

    2016-08-01

    Continued oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO2 is projected to significantly alter the chemistry of the upper oceans over the next three centuries, with potentially serious consequences for marine ecosystems. Relatively few models have the capability to make projections of ocean acidification, limiting our ability to assess the impacts and probabilities of ocean changes. In this study we examine the ability of Hector v1.1, a reduced-form global model, to project changes in the upper ocean carbonate system over the next three centuries, and quantify the model's sensitivity to parametric inputs. Hector is run under prescribed emission pathways from the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and compared to both observations and a suite of Coupled Model Intercomparison (CMIP5) model outputs. Current observations confirm that ocean acidification is already taking place, and CMIP5 models project significant changes occurring to 2300. Hector is consistent with the observational record within both the high- (> 55°) and low-latitude oceans (< 55°). The model projects low-latitude surface ocean pH to decrease from preindustrial levels of 8.17 to 7.77 in 2100, and to 7.50 in 2300; aragonite saturation levels (ΩAr) decrease from 4.1 units to 2.2 in 2100 and 1.4 in 2300 under RCP 8.5. These magnitudes and trends of ocean acidification within Hector are largely consistent with the CMIP5 model outputs, although we identify some small biases within Hector's carbonate system. Of the parameters tested, changes in [H+] are most sensitive to parameters that directly affect atmospheric CO2 concentrations – Q10 (terrestrial respiration temperature response) as well as changes in ocean circulation, while changes in ΩAr saturation levels are sensitive to changes in ocean salinity and Q10. We conclude that Hector is a robust tool well suited for rapid ocean acidification

  16. Condensation of long-term wave climates for the fatigue design of hydrodynamically sensitive offshore wind turbine support structures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Passon, Patrik; Branner, Kim

    2016-01-01

    important for hydrodynamically sensitive structures since the applied met-ocean parameters have a non-linear influence on calculated fatigue design loads. The present article introduces a new wave lumping method for condensation of the wave climate. The novelty is predominantly based on refined equivalence......Cost-efficient and reliable fatigue designs of offshore wind turbine support structures require an adequate representation of the site-specific wind–wave joint distribution. Establishment of this wind–wave joint distribution for design load calculation purposes requires typically a correlation...... of the marginal wind and wave distribution. This is achieved by condensation of the site-specific wave climate in terms of wave period or wave height lumping, subsequently used as input for a correlation with the corresponding wind climate. The quality of this resulting wind–wave correlation is especially...

  17. Political Differences in Past, Present, and Future Life Satisfaction: Republicans Are More Sensitive than Democrats to Political Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mandel, David R.; Omorogbe, Philip

    2014-01-01

    Previous research finds that Republicans report being happier or more satisfied with their lives than Democrats. Using representative American samples from 2002, 2005, 2007, 2009, and 2010, we tested a Person × Situation interactionist account in which political affiliation (Democrat, Republican) and political climate (favorable when the president in office is of the same party) are proposed to affect past, present, and anticipated future life satisfaction. Meta-analyses of related tests of key hypotheses confirmed that (a) life satisfaction was greater when the political climate was favorable rather than unfavorable and (b) Republicans were more sensitive to political climate than Democrats. As predicted, Republicans also were more politically polarized than Democrats. Taken together, the findings indicate that, compared to Democrats, Republicans are more apt to self-identify in political terms, and core aspects of their subjective well-being are more easily affected by the outcome of political events. PMID:24901253

  18. A simple, tunable, and highly sensitive radio-frequency sensor.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, Yan; Sun, Jiwei; He, Yuxi; Wang, Zheng; Wang, Pingshan

    2013-08-05

    We report a radio frequency (RF) sensor that exploits tunable attenuators and phase shifters to achieve high-sensitivity and broad band frequency tunability. Three frequency bands are combined to enable sensor operations from ∼20 MHz to ∼38 GHz. The effective quality factor ( Q eff ) of the sensor is as high as ∼3.8 × 10 6 with 200  μ l of water samples. We also demonstrate the measurement of 2-proponal-water-solution permittivity at 0.01 mole concentration level from ∼1 GHz to ∼10 GHz. Methanol-water solution and de-ionized water are used to calibrate the RF sensor for the quantitative measurements.

  19. Correcting systematic errors in high-sensitivity deuteron polarization measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brantjes, N. P. M.; Dzordzhadze, V.; Gebel, R.; Gonnella, F.; Gray, F. E.; van der Hoek, D. J.; Imig, A.; Kruithof, W. L.; Lazarus, D. M.; Lehrach, A.; Lorentz, B.; Messi, R.; Moricciani, D.; Morse, W. M.; Noid, G. A.; Onderwater, C. J. G.; Özben, C. S.; Prasuhn, D.; Levi Sandri, P.; Semertzidis, Y. K.; da Silva e Silva, M.; Stephenson, E. J.; Stockhorst, H.; Venanzoni, G.; Versolato, O. O.

    2012-02-01

    This paper reports deuteron vector and tensor beam polarization measurements taken to investigate the systematic variations due to geometric beam misalignments and high data rates. The experiments used the In-Beam Polarimeter at the KVI-Groningen and the EDDA detector at the Cooler Synchrotron COSY at Jülich. By measuring with very high statistical precision, the contributions that are second-order in the systematic errors become apparent. By calibrating the sensitivity of the polarimeter to such errors, it becomes possible to obtain information from the raw count rate values on the size of the errors and to use this information to correct the polarization measurements. During the experiment, it was possible to demonstrate that corrections were satisfactory at the level of 10 -5 for deliberately large errors. This may facilitate the real time observation of vector polarization changes smaller than 10 -6 in a search for an electric dipole moment using a storage ring.

  20. Correcting systematic errors in high-sensitivity deuteron polarization measurements

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brantjes, N.P.M. [Kernfysisch Versneller Instituut, University of Groningen, NL-9747AA Groningen (Netherlands); Dzordzhadze, V. [Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, NY 11973 (United States); Gebel, R. [Institut fuer Kernphysik, Juelich Center for Hadron Physics, Forschungszentrum Juelich, D-52425 Juelich (Germany); Gonnella, F. [Physica Department of ' Tor Vergata' University, Rome (Italy); INFN-Sez. ' Roma tor Vergata,' Rome (Italy); Gray, F.E. [Regis University, Denver, CO 80221 (United States); Hoek, D.J. van der [Kernfysisch Versneller Instituut, University of Groningen, NL-9747AA Groningen (Netherlands); Imig, A. [Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, NY 11973 (United States); Kruithof, W.L. [Kernfysisch Versneller Instituut, University of Groningen, NL-9747AA Groningen (Netherlands); Lazarus, D.M. [Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, NY 11973 (United States); Lehrach, A.; Lorentz, B. [Institut fuer Kernphysik, Juelich Center for Hadron Physics, Forschungszentrum Juelich, D-52425 Juelich (Germany); Messi, R. [Physica Department of ' Tor Vergata' University, Rome (Italy); INFN-Sez. ' Roma tor Vergata,' Rome (Italy); Moricciani, D. [INFN-Sez. ' Roma tor Vergata,' Rome (Italy); Morse, W.M. [Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, NY 11973 (United States); Noid, G.A. [Indiana University Cyclotron Facility, Bloomington, IN 47408 (United States); and others

    2012-02-01

    This paper reports deuteron vector and tensor beam polarization measurements taken to investigate the systematic variations due to geometric beam misalignments and high data rates. The experiments used the In-Beam Polarimeter at the KVI-Groningen and the EDDA detector at the Cooler Synchrotron COSY at Juelich. By measuring with very high statistical precision, the contributions that are second-order in the systematic errors become apparent. By calibrating the sensitivity of the polarimeter to such errors, it becomes possible to obtain information from the raw count rate values on the size of the errors and to use this information to correct the polarization measurements. During the experiment, it was possible to demonstrate that corrections were satisfactory at the level of 10{sup -5} for deliberately large errors. This may facilitate the real time observation of vector polarization changes smaller than 10{sup -6} in a search for an electric dipole moment using a storage ring.

  1. Wide bandwidth transimpedance amplifier for extremely high sensitivity continuous measurements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferrari, Giorgio; Sampietro, Marco

    2007-09-01

    This article presents a wide bandwidth transimpedance amplifier based on the series of an integrator and a differentiator stage, having an additional feedback loop to discharge the standing current from the device under test (DUT) to ensure an unlimited measuring time opportunity when compared to switched discharge configurations while maintaining a large signal amplification over the full bandwidth. The amplifier shows a flat response from 0.6 Hz to 1.4 MHz, the capability to operate with leakage currents from the DUT as high as tens of nanoamperes, and rail-to-rail dynamic range for sinusoidal current signals independent of the DUT leakage current. Also available is a monitor output of the stationary current to track experimental slow drifts. The circuit is ideal for noise spectral and impedance measurements of nanodevices and biomolecules when in the presence of a physiological medium and in all cases where high sensitivity current measurements are requested such as in scanning probe microscopy systems.

  2. Design of a charge sensitive preamplifier on high resistivity silicon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Radeka, V.; Rehak, P.; Rescia, S.; Gatti, E.; Longoni, A.; Sampietro, M.; Holl, P.; Strueder, L.; Kemmer, J.

    1987-01-01

    A low noise, fast charge sensitive preamplifier was designed on high resistivity, detector grade silicon. It is built at the surface of a fully depleted region of n-type silicon. This allows the preamplifier to be placed very close to a detector anode. The preamplifier uses the classical input cascode configuration with a capacitor and a high value resistor in the feedback loop. The output stage of the preamplifier can drive a load up to 20pF. The power dissipation of the preamplifier is 13mW. The amplifying elements are ''Single Sided Gate JFETs'' developed especially for this application. Preamplifiers connected to a low capacitance anode of a drift type detector should achieve a rise time of 20ns and have an equivalent noise charge (ENC), after a suitable shaping, of less than 50 electrons. This performance translates to a position resolution better than 3μm for silicon drift detectors. 6 refs., 9 figs

  3. Use of traditional medicines to cope with climate-sensitive diseases in a resource poor setting in Bangladesh.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haque, Md Aminul; Louis, Valérie R; Phalkey, Revati; Sauerborn, Rainer

    2014-02-25

    This study aims to explore the use of traditional medicines to cope with climate sensitive diseases in areas vulnerable to climate change. We assessed the extent to which traditional or alternative medicines were used for the treatment of the climate sensitive diseases by villagers as part of their health-coping strategies. The study deployed a mixed-method research design to know the health-coping strategies of the people in a resource-poor setting.A cross sectional study was conducted from September 2010 to March 2011 among 450 households selected randomly in the districts of Rajshahi and Khulna, Bangladesh. The elder males or females of each household were interviewed. For qualitative methods, twelve focus group discussions (six with females and six with males) and fifteen key informant interviews were conducted by the research team, using interview guidelines on the use of traditional medicine. Univariate analysis showed that the use of traditional medicines has increased among community members of all socio-economic and demographic backgrounds. Due to the increased incidence of disease and sickness respondents had to increase the use of their cultural means to cope with adverse health situations. A systematic collection of knowledge on the use of traditional medicines to cope with climate-sensitive diseases can help the adaptation of communities vulnerable to climate change. In addition it can be instrumental in creating a directory of traditional medicine components used for specific diseases and highlight the effectiveness and relevance of traditional medicines as health-coping strategies. This may be useful for policymakers, researchers, and development partners to adapt existing health care policy in resource-limited contexts. It may also encourage WHO, national and international institutions, such as pharmaceutical companies, to carry out research investigating the effectiveness of these traditional medicines and integrate them with modern medicine

  4. Climate-sensitive feedbacks between hillslope processes and fluvial erosion in sediment-driven incision models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skov, Daniel S.; Egholm, David L.

    2016-04-01

    Surface erosion and sediment production seem to have accelerated globally as climate cooled in the Late Cenozoic, [Molnar, P. 2004, Herman et al 2013]. Glaciers emerged in many high mountain ranges during the Quaternary, and glaciation therefore represents a likely explanation for faster erosion in such places. Still, observations and measurements point to increases in erosion rates also in landscapes where erosion is driven mainly by fluvial processes [Lease and Ehlers (2013), Reusser (2004)]. Flume experiments and fieldwork have shown that rates of incision are to a large degree controlled by the sediment load of streams [e.g. Sklar and Dietrich (2001), Beer and Turowski (2015)]. This realization led to the formulation of sediment-flux dependent incision models [Sklar and Dietrich (2004)]. The sediment-flux dependence links incision in the channels to hillslope processes that supply sediment to the channels. The rates of weathering and soil transport on the hillslopes are processes that are likely to respond to changing temperatures, e.g. because of vegetation changes or the occurrence of frost. In this study, we perform computational landscape evolution experiments, where the coupling between fluvial incision and hillslope processes is accounted for by coupling a sediment-flux-dependent model for fluvial incision to a climate-dependent model for weathering and hillslope sediment transport. The computational experiments first of all demonstrate a strong positive feedback between channel and hillslope processes. In general, faster weathering leads to higher rates of channel incision, which further increases the weathering rates, mainly because of hillslope steepening. Slower weathering leads to the opposite result. The experiments also demonstrate, however, that the feedbacks vary significantly between different parts of a drainage network. For example, increasing hillslope sediment production may accelerate incision in the upper parts of the catchment, while at

  5. Against the tide: climate change and high-risk cities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dodman, David

    2008-11-15

    In the world's poorest and most vulnerable nations, most cities and towns face a distinct dual pressure: rapidly growing population and high vulnerability to the impacts of climate change. Drought, storms, flooding and sea level rise are likely to hit hardest here. These in turn put water supplies, infrastructure, health and livelihoods at risk in the very cities already struggling to provide or safeguard such key needs. An effective response demands capable local and national government and support from strong international networks in building capacity to cope. Most of the Least Developed Countries lack both.

  6. A hydrogeologic framework for characterizing summer streamflow sensitivity to climate warming in the Pacific Northwest, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    M. Safeeq; G.E. Grant; S.L. Lewis; M.G. Kramer; B. Staab

    2014-01-01

    Summer streamflows in the Pacific Northwest are largely derived from melting snow and groundwater discharge. As the climate warms, diminishing snowpack and earlier snowmelt will cause reductions in summer streamflow. Most regional-scale assessments of climate change impacts on streamflow use downscaled temperature and precipitation projections from general circulation...

  7. High-Sensitivity Temperature-Independent Silicon Photonic Microfluidic Biosensors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Kangbaek

    Optical biosensors that can precisely quantify the presence of specific molecular species in real time without the need for labeling have seen increased use in the drug discovery industry and molecular biology in general. Of the many possible optical biosensors, the TM mode Si biosensor is shown to be very attractive in the sensing application because of large field amplitude on the surface and cost effective CMOS VLSI fabrication. Noise is the most fundamental factor that limits the performance of sensors in development of high-sensitivity biosensors, and noise reduction techniques require precise studies and analysis. One such example stems from thermal fluctuations. Generally SOI biosensors are vulnerable to ambient temperature fluctuations because of large thermo-optic coefficient of silicon (˜2x10 -4 RIU/K), typically requiring another reference ring and readout sequence to compensate temperature induced noise. To address this problem, we designed sensors with a novel TM-mode shallow-ridge waveguide that provides both large surface amplitude for bulk and surface sensing. With proper design, this also provides large optical confinement in the aqueous cladding that renders the device athermal using the negative thermo-optic coefficient of water (~ --1x10-4RIU/K), demonstrating cancellation of thermo-optic effects for aqueous solution operation near 300K. Additional limitations resulting from mechanical actuator fluctuations, stability of tunable lasers, and large 1/f noise of lasers and sensor electronics can limit biosensor performance. Here we also present a simple harmonic feedback readout technique that obviates the need for spectrometers and tunable lasers. This feedback technique reduces the impact of 1/f noise to enable high-sensitivity, and a DSP lock-in with 256 kHz sampling rate can provide down to micros time scale monitoring for fast transitions in biomolecular concentration with potential for small volume and low cost. In this dissertation, a novel

  8. Sensitivity of Greenland Ice Sheet surface mass balance to surface albedo parameterization: a study with a regional climate model

    OpenAIRE

    Angelen, J. H.; Lenaerts, J. T. M.; Lhermitte, S.; Fettweis, X.; Kuipers Munneke, P.; Broeke, M. R.; Meijgaard, E.; Smeets, C. J. P. P.

    2012-01-01

    We present a sensitivity study of the surface mass balance (SMB) of the Greenland Ice Sheet, as modeled using a regional atmospheric climate model, to various parameter settings in the albedo scheme. The snow albedo scheme uses grain size as a prognostic variable and further depends on cloud cover, solar zenith angle and black carbon concentration. For the control experiment the overestimation of absorbed shortwave radiation (+6%) at the K-transect (west Greenland) for the period 2004–2009 is...

  9. High sensitivity pyrogen testing in water and dialysis solutions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daneshian, Mardas; Wendel, Albrecht; Hartung, Thomas; von Aulock, Sonja

    2008-07-20

    The dialysis patient is confronted with hundreds of litres of dialysis solution per week, which pass the natural protective barriers of the body and are brought into contact with the tissue directly in the case of peritoneal dialysis or indirectly in the case of renal dialysis (hemodialysis). The components can be tested for living specimens or dead pyrogenic (fever-inducing) contaminations. The former is usually detected by cultivation and the latter by the endotoxin-specific Limulus Amoebocyte Lysate Assay (LAL). However, the LAL assay does not reflect the response of the human immune system to the wide variety of possible pyrogenic contaminations in dialysis fluids. Furthermore, the test is limited in its sensitivity to detect extremely low concentrations of pyrogens, which in their sum result in chronic pathologies in dialysis patients. The In vitro Pyrogen Test (IPT) employs human whole blood to detect the spectrum of pyrogens to which humans respond by measuring the release of the endogenous fever mediator interleukin-1beta. Spike recovery checks exclude interference. The test has been validated in an international study for pyrogen detection in injectable solutions. In this study we adapted the IPT to the testing of dialysis solutions. Preincubation of 50 ml spiked samples with albumin-coated microspheres enhanced the sensitivity of the assay to detect contaminations down to 0.1 pg/ml LPS or 0.001 EU/ml in water or saline and allowed pyrogen detection in dialysis concentrates or final working solutions. This method offers high sensitivity detection of human-relevant pyrogens in dialysis solutions and components.

  10. Luminescent Lanthanide Reporters for High-Sensitivity Novel Bioassays

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anstey, Mitchell R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States); Fruetel, Julia A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States); Foster, Michael E. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States); Hayden, Carl C. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States); Buckley, Heather L. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States); Arnold, John [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2013-09-01

    Biological imaging and assay technologies rely on fluorescent organic dyes as reporters for a number of interesting targets and processes. However, limitations of organic dyes such as small Stokes shifts, spectral overlap of emission signals with native biological fluorescence background, and photobleaching have all inhibited the development of highly sensitive assays. To overcome the limitations of organic dyes for bioassays, we propose to develop lanthanide-based luminescent dyes and demonstrate them for molecular reporting applications. This relatively new family of dyes was selected for their attractive spectral and chemical properties. Luminescence is imparted by the lanthanide atom and allows for relatively simple chemical structures that can be tailored to the application. The photophysical properties offer unique features such as narrow and non-overlapping emission bands, long luminescent lifetimes, and long wavelength emission, which enable significant sensitivity improvements over organic dyes through spectral and temporal gating of the luminescent signal.Growth in this field has been hindered due to the necessary advanced synthetic chemistry techniques and access to experts in biological assay development. Our strategy for the development of a new lanthanide-based fluorescent reporter system is based on chelation of the lanthanide metal center using absorbing chromophores. Our first strategy involves "Click" chemistry to develop 3-fold symmetric chelators and the other involves use of a new class of tetrapyrrole ligands called corroles. This two-pronged approach is geared towards the optimization of chromophores to enhance light output.

  11. New application of superconductors: High sensitivity cryogenic light detectors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cardani, L., E-mail: laura.cardani@roma1.infn.it [Dipartimento di Fisica, Sapienza Università di Roma, Piazzale Aldo Moro 2, 00185 Roma (Italy); Physics Department, Princeton University, Washington Road, 08544 Princeton, NJ (United States); Bellini, F.; Casali, N. [Dipartimento di Fisica, Sapienza Università di Roma, Piazzale Aldo Moro 2, 00185 Roma (Italy); INFN – Sezione di Roma, Piazzale Aldo Moro 2, 00185 Roma, Italy (Italy); Castellano, M.G. [Istituto di Fotonica e Nanotecnologie – CNR, Via Cineto Romano 42, 00156 Roma (Italy); Colantoni, I.; Coppolecchia, A. [Dipartimento di Fisica, Sapienza Università di Roma, Piazzale Aldo Moro 2, 00185 Roma (Italy); Cosmelli, C.; Cruciani, A. [Dipartimento di Fisica, Sapienza Università di Roma, Piazzale Aldo Moro 2, 00185 Roma (Italy); INFN – Sezione di Roma, Piazzale Aldo Moro 2, 00185 Roma, Italy (Italy); D' Addabbo, A. [INFN – Laboratori Nazionali del Gran Sasso, Assergi (L' Aquila) 67010 (Italy); Di Domizio, S. [INFN – Sezione di Genova, Via Dodecaneso 33, 16146 Genova (Italy); Dipartimento di Fisica, Università degli Studi di Genova, Via Dodecaneso 33, 16146 Genova (Italy); Martinez, M. [Dipartimento di Fisica, Sapienza Università di Roma, Piazzale Aldo Moro 2, 00185 Roma (Italy); INFN – Sezione di Roma, Piazzale Aldo Moro 2, 00185 Roma, Italy (Italy); Laboratorio de Fisica Nuclear y Astroparticulas, Universidad de Zaragoza, Zaragoza 50009 (Spain); Tomei, C. [INFN – Sezione di Roma, Piazzale Aldo Moro 2, 00185 Roma, Italy (Italy); and others

    2017-02-11

    In this paper we describe the current status of the CALDER project, which is developing ultra-sensitive light detectors based on superconductors for cryogenic applications. When we apply an AC current to a superconductor, the Cooper pairs oscillate and acquire kinetic inductance, that can be measured by inserting the superconductor in a LC circuit with high merit factor. Interactions in the superconductor can break the Cooper pairs, causing sizable variations in the kinetic inductance and, thus, in the response of the LC circuit. The continuous monitoring of the amplitude and frequency modulation allows to reconstruct the incident energy with excellent sensitivity. This concept is at the basis of Kinetic Inductance Detectors (KIDs) that are characterized by natural aptitude to multiplexed read-out (several sensors can be tuned to different resonant frequencies and coupled to the same line), resolution of few eV, stable behavior over a wide temperature range, and ease in fabrication. We present the results obtained by the CALDER collaboration with 2×2 cm{sup 2} substrates sampled by 1 or 4 Aluminum KIDs. We show that the performances of the first prototypes are already competitive with those of other commonly used light detectors, and we discuss the strategies for a further improvement.

  12. New application of superconductors: High sensitivity cryogenic light detectors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cardani, L.; Bellini, F.; Casali, N.; Castellano, M.G.; Colantoni, I.; Coppolecchia, A.; Cosmelli, C.; Cruciani, A.; D'Addabbo, A.; Di Domizio, S.; Martinez, M.; Tomei, C.

    2017-01-01

    In this paper we describe the current status of the CALDER project, which is developing ultra-sensitive light detectors based on superconductors for cryogenic applications. When we apply an AC current to a superconductor, the Cooper pairs oscillate and acquire kinetic inductance, that can be measured by inserting the superconductor in a LC circuit with high merit factor. Interactions in the superconductor can break the Cooper pairs, causing sizable variations in the kinetic inductance and, thus, in the response of the LC circuit. The continuous monitoring of the amplitude and frequency modulation allows to reconstruct the incident energy with excellent sensitivity. This concept is at the basis of Kinetic Inductance Detectors (KIDs) that are characterized by natural aptitude to multiplexed read-out (several sensors can be tuned to different resonant frequencies and coupled to the same line), resolution of few eV, stable behavior over a wide temperature range, and ease in fabrication. We present the results obtained by the CALDER collaboration with 2×2 cm"2 substrates sampled by 1 or 4 Aluminum KIDs. We show that the performances of the first prototypes are already competitive with those of other commonly used light detectors, and we discuss the strategies for a further improvement.

  13. DEVELOPMENT OF A HIGH PERFORMANCE COLD CLIMATE HEAT PUMP

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Horton, W. Travis [Purdue University; Groll, Eckhard A. [Purdue University; Braun, James E. [Purdue University

    2014-06-01

    The primary goals of the proposed project were to develop, test, and evaluate a high performance and cost-effective vapor compression air-source heat pump for use in cold climate regions. Vapor compression heat pumps are a proven technology, and have been used for many years to meet heating requirements for buildings in residential, commercial, and industrial applications. However, in climate regions that experience very low outdoor ambient temperatures both the heating capacity and coefficient of performance (COP) of traditional air-source vapor compression heat pumps drops dramatically with a decrease in the outdoor air temperature. The efficiency of heat pumping equipment has improved substantially over the past 20 years; however, the efficiencies of the highest rated equipment on the market are approaching practical limits that cannot be surpassed without modifications to the basic cycle and possibly the use of additional hardware. In this report, three technologies to improve the efficiency of vapor compression systems are described. These are a) vapor injected compression, b) oil flooded compression and c) hybrid flow control of the evaporator. Compressor prototypes for both, oil flooded and vapor injected compression were developed by Emerson Climate Technologies. For the oil flooded compressor, the oil injection port location was optimized and an internal oil separator was added using several design iterations. After initial testing at Emerson Climate Technologies, further testing was done at Purdue University, and compressor models were developed. These models were then integrated into a system model to determine the achievable improvement of seasonal energy efficiency (SEER) for Minneapolis (Minnesota) climate. For the oil flooded compression, a 34% improvement in seasonal energy efficiency was found while a 21% improvement in seasonal energy efficiency ratio was found for the vapor injected compression. It was found that one benefit of both tested

  14. Reduced spore germination explains sensitivity of reef-building algae to climate change stressors.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandra Ordoñez

    Full Text Available Reduced seawater pH and changes in carbonate chemistry associated with ocean acidification (OA decrease the recruitment of crustose coralline algae (CCAcf., an important coral-reef builder. However, it is unclear whether the observed decline in recruitment is driven by impairment of spore germination, or post-settlement processes (e.g. space competition. To address this, we conducted an experiment using a dominant CCA, Porolithon cf. onkodes to test the independent and combined effects of OA, warming, and irradiance on its germination success and early development. Elevated CO2 negatively affected several processes of spore germination, including formation of the germination disc, initial growth, and germling survival. The magnitude of these effects varied depending on the levels of temperature and irradiance. For example, the combination of high CO2 and high temperature reduced formation of the germination disc, but this effect was independent of irradiance levels, while spore abnormalities increased under high CO2 and high temperature particularly in combination with low irradiance intensity. This study demonstrates that spore germination of CCA is impacted by the independent and interactive effects of OA, increasing seawater temperature and irradiance intensity. For the first time, this provides a mechanism for how the sensitivity of critical early life history processes to global change may drive declines of adult populations of key marine calcifiers.

  15. High-Sensitivity AGN Polarimetry at Sub-Millimeter Wavelengths

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivan Martí-Vidal

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The innermost regions of radio loud Active Galactic Nuclei (AGN jets are heavily affected by synchrotron self-absorption, due to the strong magnetic fields and high particle densities in these extreme zones. The only way to overcome this absorption is to observe at sub-millimeter wavelengths, although polarimetric observations at such frequencies have so far been limited by sensitivity and calibration accuracy. However, new generation instruments such as the Atacama Large mm/sub-mm Array (ALMA overcome these limitations and are starting to deliver revolutionary results in the observational studies of AGN polarimetry. Here we present an overview of our state-of-the-art interferometric mm/sub-mm polarization observations of AGN jets with ALMA (in particular, the gravitationally-lensed sources PKS 1830−211 and B0218+359, which allow us to probe the magneto-ionic conditions at the regions closest to the central black holes.

  16. High resolution, position sensitive detector for energetic particle beams

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marsh, E.P.; Strathman, M.D.; Reed, D.A.; Odom, R.W.; Morse, D.H.; Pontau, A.E.

    1993-01-01

    The performance and design of an imaging position sensitive, particle beam detector will be presented. The detector is minimally invasive, operates a wide dynamic range (>10 10 ), and exhibits high spatial resolution. The secondary electrons produced when a particle beam passes through a thin foil are imaged using stigmatic ion optics onto a two-dimensional imaging detector. Due to the low scattering cross section of the 6 nm carbon foil the detector is a minimal perturbation on the primary beam. A prototype detector with an image resolution of approximately 5 μm for a field of view of 1 mm has been reported. A higher resolution detector for imaging small beams (<50 μm) with an image resolution of better than 0.5 μm has since been developed and its design is presented. (orig.)

  17. High resolution, position sensitive detector for energetic particle beams

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marsh, E P [Charles Evans and Associates, Redwood City, CA (United States); Strathman, M D [Charles Evans and Associates, Redwood City, CA (United States); Reed, D A [Charles Evans and Associates, Redwood City, CA (United States); Odom, R W [Charles Evans and Associates, Redwood City, CA (United States); Morse, D H [Sandia National Labs., Livermore, CA (United States); Pontau, A E [Sandia National Labs., Livermore, CA (United States)

    1993-05-01

    The performance and design of an imaging position sensitive, particle beam detector will be presented. The detector is minimally invasive, operates a wide dynamic range (>10[sup 10]), and exhibits high spatial resolution. The secondary electrons produced when a particle beam passes through a thin foil are imaged using stigmatic ion optics onto a two-dimensional imaging detector. Due to the low scattering cross section of the 6 nm carbon foil the detector is a minimal perturbation on the primary beam. A prototype detector with an image resolution of approximately 5 [mu]m for a field of view of 1 mm has been reported. A higher resolution detector for imaging small beams (<50 [mu]m) with an image resolution of better than 0.5 [mu]m has since been developed and its design is presented. (orig.)

  18. Highly Sensitive Filter Paper Substrate for SERS Trace Explosives Detection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pedro M. Fierro-Mercado

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available We report on a novel and extremely low-cost surface-enhanced Raman spectroscopy (SERS substrate fabricated depositing gold nanoparticles on common lab filter paper using thermal inkjet technology. The paper-based substrate combines all advantages of other plasmonic structures fabricated by more elaborate techniques with the dynamic flexibility given by the inherent nature of the paper for an efficient sample collection, robustness, and stability. We describe the fabrication, characterization, and SERS activity of our substrate using 2,4,6-trinitrotoluene, 2,4-dinitrotoluene, and 1,3,5-trinitrobenzene as analytes. The paper-based SERS substrates presented a high sensitivity and excellent reproducibility for analytes employed, demonstrating a direct application in forensic science and homeland security.

  19. High efficiency solid-state sensitized heterojunction photovoltaic device

    KAUST Repository

    Wang, Mingkui

    2010-06-01

    The high molar extinction coefficient heteroleptic ruthenium dye, NaRu(4,4′-bis(5-(hexylthio)thiophen-2-yl)-2,2′-bipyridine) (4-carboxylic acid-4′-carboxylate-2,2′-bipyridine) (NCS) 2, exhibits certified 5% electric power conversion efficiency at AM 1.5 solar irradiation (100 mW cm-2) in a solid-state dye-sensitized solar cell using 2,2′,7,7′-tetrakis-(N,N-di-pmethoxyphenylamine)-9, 9′-spirobifluorene (spiro-MeOTAD) as the organic hole-transporting material. This demonstration elucidates a class of photovoltaic devices with potential for low-cost power generation. © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. High efficiency solid-state sensitized heterojunction photovoltaic device

    KAUST Repository

    Wang, Mingkui; Liu, Jingyuan; Cevey-Ha, Ngoc-Le; Moon, Soo-Jin; Liska, Paul; Humphry-Baker, Robin; Moser, Jacques-E.; Grä tzel, Carole; Wang, Peng; Zakeeruddin, Shaik M.

    2010-01-01

    The high molar extinction coefficient heteroleptic ruthenium dye, NaRu(4,4′-bis(5-(hexylthio)thiophen-2-yl)-2,2′-bipyridine) (4-carboxylic acid-4′-carboxylate-2,2′-bipyridine) (NCS) 2, exhibits certified 5% electric power conversion efficiency at AM 1.5 solar irradiation (100 mW cm-2) in a solid-state dye-sensitized solar cell using 2,2′,7,7′-tetrakis-(N,N-di-pmethoxyphenylamine)-9, 9′-spirobifluorene (spiro-MeOTAD) as the organic hole-transporting material. This demonstration elucidates a class of photovoltaic devices with potential for low-cost power generation. © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Using a Mechanistic Reactive Transport Model to Represent Soil Organic Matter Dynamics and Climate Sensitivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guerry, N.; Riley, W. J.; Maggi, F.; Torn, M. S.; Kleber, M.

    2011-12-01

    substantial uncertainty in how these relationships should be represented. We also developed several other model formulations, including one that represents SOM in pools of varying decomposability, but lacking explicit protection mechanisms. We tested the model against several observational and experimental datasets. An important conclusion of our analysis is that although several of the model structural formulations were able to represent the bulk SOM observations, including 14C vertical profiles, the temperature, moisture, and soil chemistry sensitivity of decomposition varied strongly between each formulation. Finally, we applied the model to design observations that would be required to better constrain process representation and improve predictions of changes in SOM under changing climate.

  2. Effective dose calculation in CT using high sensitivity TLDs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brady, Z.; Johnston, P.N.

    2010-01-01

    Full text: To determine the effective dose for common paediatric CT examinations using thermoluminescence dosimetry (TLD) mea surements. High sensitivity TLD chips (LiF:Mg,Cu,P, TLD-IOOH, Thermo Fisher Scientific, Waltham, MA) were calibrated on a linac at an energy of 6 MY. A calibration was also performed on a superricial X-ray unit at a kilovoltage energy to validate the megavoltage cali bration for the purpose of measuring doses in the diagnostic energy range. The dose variation across large organs was assessed and a methodology for TLD placement in a 10 year old anthropomorphic phantom developed. Effective dose was calculated from the TLD measured absorbed doses for typical CT examinations after correcting for the TLD energy response and taking into account differences in the mass energy absorption coefficients for different tissues and organs. Results Using new tissue weighting factors recommended in ICRP Publication 103, the effective dose for a CT brain examination on a 10 year old was 1.6 millisieverts (mSv), 4.9 mSv for a CT chest exa ination and 4.7 mSv for a CT abdomen/pelvis examination. These values are lower for the CT brain examination, higher for the CT chest examination and approximately the same for the CT abdomen/ pelvis examination when compared with effective doses calculated using ICRP Publication 60 tissue weighting factors. Conclusions High sensitivity TLDs calibrated with a radiotherapy linac are useful for measuring dose in the diagnostic energy range and overcome limitations of output reproducibility and uniformity asso ciated with traditional TLD calibration on CT scanners or beam quality matched diagnostic X-ray units.

  3. A High Elevation Climate Monitoring Network: Strategy and Progress

    Science.gov (United States)

    Redmond, K. T.

    2004-12-01

    Populations living at low elevations are critically dependent on processes and resources at higher elevations. Most western U.S. streamflow begins as mountain snowmelt. Observational evidence and theoretical considerations indicate that climate variations in a given geographic domain can and do exhibit different characteristics and temporal behavior at different elevations. Subtleties in the interplay between topography and airflow can significantly affect precipitation patterns. However, there are very few systematic, long-term, in-situ, climate quality, high-altitude observational time series with hourly resolution for the western North American mountains to investigate these issues at the proper scales. Climate at high elevations is severely undersampled, a consequence of the harsh physical environment, and demands on sensors, maintenance, access, communications, time, and budgets. Costs are higher, human presence is limited, AC power is often not available, and there are permitting and aesthetic constraints. The observational strategy should include these main elements: 1) All major mountain ranges should be sampled. 2) Along-axis and cross-axis sampling for major mountain chains. 3) Approximately 5-10 sites per state (1 per 56000 sq km to 1 per 28000 sq km). 4) Highest sites as high as possible within each state, but at both high relative and absolute elevations. 5) Free air exposures at higher sites. 6) Utilize existing measurements and networks, and extend existing records, when possible. 7) AC power to prevent ice/rime when practical. 8) Temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and direction, solar radiation as main elements, others as feasible. 9) Hourly readings, and real time communication whenever possible. 10) Absence of local artificial influences, site stable for next 5-10 decades. 11) Current and historical measurements accessible via World Wide Web when possible. 12) Hydro measurements (precipitation, snow water content and depth) are not

  4. Sensitivity of global ocean biogeochemical dynamics to ecosystem structure in a future climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manizza, Manfredi; Buitenhuis, Erik T.; Le Quéré, Corinne

    2010-07-01

    Terrestrial and oceanic ecosystem components of the Earth System models (ESMs) are key to predict the future behavior of the global carbon cycle. Ocean ecosystem models represent low complexity compared to terrestrial ecosystem models. In this study we use two ocean biogeochemical models based on the explicit representation of multiple planktonic functional types. We impose to the models the same future physical perturbation and compare the response of ecosystem dynamics, export production (EP) and ocean carbon uptake (OCU) to the same physical changes. Models comparison shows that: (1) EP changes directly translate into changes of OCU on decadal time scale, (2) the representation of ecosystem structure plays a pivotal role at linking OCU and EP, (3) OCU is highly sensitive to representation of ecosystem in the Equatorial Pacific and Southern Oceans.

  5. Scanning Auger microscopy for high lateral and depth elemental sensitivity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Martinez, E., E-mail: eugenie.martinez@cea.fr [CEA, LETI, MINATEC Campus, 17 rue des Martyrs, 38054 Grenoble Cedex 9 (France); Yadav, P. [CEA, LETI, MINATEC Campus, 17 rue des Martyrs, 38054 Grenoble Cedex 9 (France); Bouttemy, M. [Institut Lavoisier de Versailles, 45 av. des Etats-Unis, 78035 Versailles Cedex (France); Renault, O.; Borowik, Ł.; Bertin, F. [CEA, LETI, MINATEC Campus, 17 rue des Martyrs, 38054 Grenoble Cedex 9 (France); Etcheberry, A. [Institut Lavoisier de Versailles, 45 av. des Etats-Unis, 78035 Versailles Cedex (France); Chabli, A. [CEA, LETI, MINATEC Campus, 17 rue des Martyrs, 38054 Grenoble Cedex 9 (France)

    2013-12-15

    Highlights: •SAM performances and limitations are illustrated on real practical cases such as the analysis of nanowires and nanodots. •High spatial elemental resolution is shown with the analysis of reference semiconducting Al{sub 0.7}Ga{sub 0.3}As/GaAs multilayers. •High in-depth elemental resolution is also illustrated. Auger depth profiling with low energy ion beams allows revealing ultra-thin layers (∼1 nm). •Analysis of cross-sectional samples is another effective approach to obtain in-depth elemental information. -- Abstract: Scanning Auger microscopy is currently gaining interest for investigating nanostructures or thin multilayers stacks developed for nanotechnologies. New generation Auger nanoprobes combine high lateral (∼10 nm), energy (0.1%) and depth (∼2 nm) resolutions thus offering the possibility to analyze the elemental composition as well as the chemical state, at the nanometre scale. We report here on the performances and limitations on practical examples from nanotechnology research. The spatial elemental sensitivity is illustrated with the analysis of Al{sub 0.7}Ga{sub 0.3}As/GaAs heterostructures, Si nanowires and SiC nanodots. Regarding the elemental in-depth composition, two effective approaches are presented: low energy depth profiling to reveal ultra-thin layers (∼1 nm) and analysis of cross-sectional samples.

  6. Uncertainty in climate-carbon-cycle projections associated with the sensitivity of soil respiration to temperature

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, Chris D.; Cox, Peter; Huntingford, Chris

    2003-01-01

    Carbon-cycle feedbacks have been shown to be very important in predicting climate change over the next century, with a potentially large positive feedback coming from the release of carbon from soils as global temperatures increase. The magnitude of this feedback and whether or not it drives the terrestrial carbon cycle to become a net source of carbon dioxide during the next century depends particularly on the response of soil respiration to temperature. Observed global atmospheric CO 2 concentration, and its response to naturally occurring climate anomalies, is used to constrain the behaviour of soil respiration in our coupled climate-carbon-cycle GCM. This constraint is used to quantify some of the uncertainties in predictions of future CO 2 levels. The uncertainty is large, emphasizing the importance of carbon-cycle research with respect to future climate change predictions

  7. Assessing confidence in management adaptation approaches for climate-sensitive ecosystems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    West, J M; Julius, S H; Weaver, C P

    2012-01-01

    A number of options are available for adapting ecosystem management to improve resilience in the face of climatic changes. However, uncertainty exists as to the effectiveness of these options. A report prepared for the US Climate Change Science Program reviewed adaptation options for a range of federally managed systems in the United States. The report included a qualitative uncertainty analysis of conceptual approaches to adaptation derived from the review. The approaches included reducing anthropogenic stressors, protecting key ecosystem features, maintaining representation, replicating, restoring, identifying refugia and relocating organisms. The results showed that the expert teams had the greatest scientific confidence in adaptation options that reduce anthropogenic stresses. Confidence in other approaches was lower because of gaps in understanding of ecosystem function, climate change impacts on ecosystems, and management effectiveness. This letter discusses insights gained from the confidence exercise and proposes strategies for improving future assessments of confidence for management adaptations to climate change. (letter)

  8. The Role of Sea Ice in 2 x CO2 Climate Model Sensitivity. Part 2; Hemispheric Dependencies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rind, D.; Healy, R.; Parkinson, C.; Martinson, D.

    1997-01-01

    How sensitive are doubled CO2 simulations to GCM control-run sea ice thickness and extent? This issue is examined in a series of 10 control-run simulations with different sea ice and corresponding doubled CO2 simulations. Results show that with increased control-run sea ice coverage in the Southern Hemisphere, temperature sensitivity with climate change is enhanced, while there is little effect on temperature sensitivity of (reasonable) variations in control-run sea ice thickness. In the Northern Hemisphere the situation is reversed: sea ice thickness is the key parameter, while (reasonable) variations in control-run sea ice coverage are of less importance. In both cases, the quantity of sea ice that can be removed in the warmer climate is the determining factor. Overall, the Southern Hemisphere sea ice coverage change had a larger impact on global temperature, because Northern Hemisphere sea ice was sufficiently thick to limit its response to doubled CO2, and sea ice changes generally occurred at higher latitudes, reducing the sea ice-albedo feedback. In both these experiments and earlier ones in which sea ice was not allowed to change, the model displayed a sensitivity of -0.02 C global warming per percent change in Southern Hemisphere sea ice coverage.

  9. Chinese insurance agents in "bad barrels": a multilevel analysis of the relationship between ethical leadership, ethical climate and business ethical sensitivity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Na; Zhang, Jian

    2016-01-01

    The moral hazards and poor public image of the insurance industry, arising from insurance agents' unethical behavior, affect both the normal operation of an insurance company and decrease applicants' confidence in the company. Contrarily, these scandals may demonstrate that the organizations were "bad barrels" in which insurance agents' unethical decisions were supported or encouraged by the organization's leadership or climate. The present study brings two organization-level factors (ethical leadership and ethical climate) together and explores the role of ethical climate on the relationship between the ethical leadership and business ethical sensitivity of Chinese insurance agents. Through the multilevel analysis of 502 insurance agents from 56 organizations, it is found that organizational ethical leadership is positively related to the organizational ethical climate; organizational ethical climate is positively related to business ethical sensitivity, and organizational ethical climate fully mediates the relationship between organizational ethical leadership and business ethical sensitivity. Organizational ethical climate plays a completely mediating role in the relationship between organizational ethical leadership and business ethical sensitivity. The integrated model of ethical leadership, ethical climate and business ethical sensitivity makes several contributions to ethics theory, research and management.

  10. Amazon collapse in the next century: exploring the sensitivity to climate and model formulation uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Booth, B.; Collins, M.; Harris, G.; Chris, H.; Jones, C.

    2007-12-01

    A number of recent studies have highlighted the risk of abrupt dieback of the Amazon Rain Forest as the result of climate changes over the next century. The recent 2005 Amazon drought brought wider acceptance of the idea that that climate drivers will play a significant role in future rain forest stability, yet that stability is still subject to considerable degree of uncertainty. We present a study which seeks to explore some of the underlying uncertainties both in the climate drivers of dieback and in the terrestrial land surface formulation used in GCMs. We adopt a perturbed physics approach which forms part of a wider project which is covered in an accompanying abstract submitted to the multi-model ensembles session. We first couple the same interactive land surface model to a number of different versions of the Hadley Centre atmosphere-ocean model that exhibit a wide range of different physical climate responses in the future. The rainforest extent is shown to collapse in all model cases but the timing of the collapse is dependent on the magnitude of the climate drivers. In the second part, we explore uncertainties in the terrestrial land surface model using the perturbed physics ensemble approach, perturbing uncertain parameters which have an important role in the vegetation and soil response. Contrasting the two approaches enables a greater understanding of the relative importance of climatic and land surface model uncertainties in Amazon dieback.

  11. Effects of snow grain non-sphericity on climate simulations: Sensitivity tests with the NorESM model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Räisänen, Petri; Makkonen, Risto; Kirkevåg, Alf

    2017-04-01

    Snow grains are non-spherical and generally irregular in shape. Still, in radiative transfer calculations, they are often treated as spheres. This also applies to the computation of snow albedo in the Snow, Ice, and Aerosol Radiation (SNICAR) model and in the Los Alamos sea ice model, version 4 (CICE4), both of which are employed in the Community Earth System Model and in the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM). In this work, we evaluate the effect of snow grain shape on climate simulated by NorESM in a slab ocean configuration of the model. An experiment with spherical snow grains (SPH) is compared with another (NONSPH) in which the snow shortwave single-scattering properties are based on a combination of non-spherical snow grain shapes optimized using measurements of angular scattering by blowing snow. The key difference between these treatments is that the asymmetry parameter is smaller in the non-spherical case (≈ 0.78 in the visible region) than in the spherical case (≈ 0.89). Therefore, for a given snow grain size, the use of non-spherical snow grains yields a higher snow broadband albedo, typically by ≈0.03. Consequently, considering the spherical case as the baseline, the use of non-spherical snow grains results in a negative radiative forcing (RF), with a global-mean top-of-the-model value of ≈ -0.22 W m-2. Although this global-mean RF is modest, it has a rather substantial impact on the climate simulated by NoRESM. In particular, the global annual-mean 2-m air temperature in NONSPH is 1.17 K lower than in SPH, with substantially larger differences at high latitudes. The climatic response is amplified by strong snow and sea ice feedbacks. It is further found that the difference between NONSPH and SPH could be largely "tuned away" by adjusting the snow grain size in the NONSPH experiment by ≈ 70%. The impact of snow grain shape on the radiative effect (RE) of absorbing aerosols in snow (black carbon and mineral dust) is also discussed. For an

  12. Laser-engraved carbon nanotube paper for instilling high sensitivity, high stretchability, and high linearity in strain sensors

    KAUST Repository

    Xin, Yangyang

    2017-06-29

    There is an increasing demand for strain sensors with high sensitivity and high stretchability for new applications such as robotics or wearable electronics. However, for the available technologies, the sensitivity of the sensors varies widely. These sensors are also highly nonlinear, making reliable measurement challenging. Here we introduce a new family of sensors composed of a laser-engraved carbon nanotube paper embedded in an elastomer. A roll-to-roll pressing of these sensors activates a pre-defined fragmentation process, which results in a well-controlled, fragmented microstructure. Such sensors are reproducible and durable and can attain ultrahigh sensitivity and high stretchability (with a gauge factor of over 4.2 × 10(4) at 150% strain). Moreover, they can attain high linearity from 0% to 15% and from 22% to 150% strain. They are good candidates for stretchable electronic applications that require high sensitivity and linearity at large strains.

  13. Validation of High-resolution Climate Simulations over Northern Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muna, R. A.

    2005-12-01

    Two AMIP2-type (Gates 1992) experiments have been performed with climate versions of ARPEGE/IFS model examine for North Atlantic North Europe, and Norwegian region and analyzed the effect of increasing resolution on the simulated biases. The ECMWF reanalysis or ERA-15 has been used to validate the simulations. Each of the simulations is an integration of the period 1979 to 1996. The global simulations used observed monthly mean sea surface temperatures (SST) as lower boundary condition. All aspects but the horizontal resolutions are similar in the two simulations. The first simulation has a uniform horizontal resolution of T63L. The second one has a variable resolution (T106Lc3) with the highest resolution in the Norwegian Sea. Both simulations have 31 vertical layers in the same locations. For each simulation the results were divided into two seasons: winter (DJF) and summer (JJA). The parameters investigated were mean sea level pressure, geopotential and temperature at 850 hPa and 500 hPa. To find out the causes of temperature bias during summer, latent and sensible heat flux, total cloud cover and total precipitation were analyzed. The high-resolution simulation exhibits more or less realistic climate over Nordic, Artic and European region. The overall performance of the simulations shows improvements of generally all fields investigated with increasing resolution over the target area both in winter (DJF) and summer (JJA).

  14. Enabling Efficient Climate Science Workflows in High Performance Computing Environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krishnan, H.; Byna, S.; Wehner, M. F.; Gu, J.; O'Brien, T. A.; Loring, B.; Stone, D. A.; Collins, W.; Prabhat, M.; Liu, Y.; Johnson, J. N.; Paciorek, C. J.

    2015-12-01

    A typical climate science workflow often involves a combination of acquisition of data, modeling, simulation, analysis, visualization, publishing, and storage of results. Each of these tasks provide a myriad of challenges when running on a high performance computing environment such as Hopper or Edison at NERSC. Hurdles such as data transfer and management, job scheduling, parallel analysis routines, and publication require a lot of forethought and planning to ensure that proper quality control mechanisms are in place. These steps require effectively utilizing a combination of well tested and newly developed functionality to move data, perform analysis, apply statistical routines, and finally, serve results and tools to the greater scientific community. As part of the CAlibrated and Systematic Characterization, Attribution and Detection of Extremes (CASCADE) project we highlight a stack of tools our team utilizes and has developed to ensure that large scale simulation and analysis work are commonplace and provide operations that assist in everything from generation/procurement of data (HTAR/Globus) to automating publication of results to portals like the Earth Systems Grid Federation (ESGF), all while executing everything in between in a scalable environment in a task parallel way (MPI). We highlight the use and benefit of these tools by showing several climate science analysis use cases they have been applied to.

  15. Accelerated Sensitivity Analysis in High-Dimensional Stochastic Reaction Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arampatzis, Georgios; Katsoulakis, Markos A; Pantazis, Yannis

    2015-01-01

    Existing sensitivity analysis approaches are not able to handle efficiently stochastic reaction networks with a large number of parameters and species, which are typical in the modeling and simulation of complex biochemical phenomena. In this paper, a two-step strategy for parametric sensitivity analysis for such systems is proposed, exploiting advantages and synergies between two recently proposed sensitivity analysis methodologies for stochastic dynamics. The first method performs sensitivity analysis of the stochastic dynamics by means of the Fisher Information Matrix on the underlying distribution of the trajectories; the second method is a reduced-variance, finite-difference, gradient-type sensitivity approach relying on stochastic coupling techniques for variance reduction. Here we demonstrate that these two methods can be combined and deployed together by means of a new sensitivity bound which incorporates the variance of the quantity of interest as well as the Fisher Information Matrix estimated from the first method. The first step of the proposed strategy labels sensitivities using the bound and screens out the insensitive parameters in a controlled manner. In the second step of the proposed strategy, a finite-difference method is applied only for the sensitivity estimation of the (potentially) sensitive parameters that have not been screened out in the first step. Results on an epidermal growth factor network with fifty parameters and on a protein homeostasis with eighty parameters demonstrate that the proposed strategy is able to quickly discover and discard the insensitive parameters and in the remaining potentially sensitive parameters it accurately estimates the sensitivities. The new sensitivity strategy can be several times faster than current state-of-the-art approaches that test all parameters, especially in "sloppy" systems. In particular, the computational acceleration is quantified by the ratio between the total number of parameters over the

  16. Accelerated Sensitivity Analysis in High-Dimensional Stochastic Reaction Networks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Georgios Arampatzis

    Full Text Available Existing sensitivity analysis approaches are not able to handle efficiently stochastic reaction networks with a large number of parameters and species, which are typical in the modeling and simulation of complex biochemical phenomena. In this paper, a two-step strategy for parametric sensitivity analysis for such systems is proposed, exploiting advantages and synergies between two recently proposed sensitivity analysis methodologies for stochastic dynamics. The first method performs sensitivity analysis of the stochastic dynamics by means of the Fisher Information Matrix on the underlying distribution of the trajectories; the second method is a reduced-variance, finite-difference, gradient-type sensitivity approach relying on stochastic coupling techniques for variance reduction. Here we demonstrate that these two methods can be combined and deployed together by means of a new sensitivity bound which incorporates the variance of the quantity of interest as well as the Fisher Information Matrix estimated from the first method. The first step of the proposed strategy labels sensitivities using the bound and screens out the insensitive parameters in a controlled manner. In the second step of the proposed strategy, a finite-difference method is applied only for the sensitivity estimation of the (potentially sensitive parameters that have not been screened out in the first step. Results on an epidermal growth factor network with fifty parameters and on a protein homeostasis with eighty parameters demonstrate that the proposed strategy is able to quickly discover and discard the insensitive parameters and in the remaining potentially sensitive parameters it accurately estimates the sensitivities. The new sensitivity strategy can be several times faster than current state-of-the-art approaches that test all parameters, especially in "sloppy" systems. In particular, the computational acceleration is quantified by the ratio between the total number of

  17. Cost-Risk Trade-off of Solar Radiation Management and Mitigation under Probabilistic Information on Climate Sensitivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khabbazan, Mohammad Mohammadi; Roshan, Elnaz; Held, Hermann

    2017-04-01

    In principle solar radiation management (SRM) offers an option to ameliorate anthropogenic temperature rise. However we cannot expect it to simultaneously compensate for anthropogenic changes in further climate variables in a perfect manner. Here, we ask to what extent a proponent of the 2°C-temperature target would apply SRM in conjunction with mitigation in view of global or regional disparities in precipitation changes. We apply cost-risk analysis (CRA), which is a decision analytic framework that makes a trade-off between the expected welfare-loss from climate policy costs and the climate risks from transgressing a climate target. Here, in both global-scale and 'Giorgi'-regional-scale analyses, we evaluate the optimal mixture of SRM and mitigation under probabilistic information about climate sensitivity. To do so, we generalize CRA for the sake of including not only temperature risk, but also globally aggregated and regionally disaggregated precipitation risks. Social welfare is maximized for the following three valuation scenarios: temperature-risk-only, precipitation-risk-only, and equally weighted both-risks. For now, the Giorgi regions are treated by equal weight. We find that for regionally differentiated precipitation targets, the usage of SRM will be comparably more restricted. In the course of time, a cooling of up to 1.3°C can be attributed to SRM for the latter scenario and for a median climate sensitivity of 3°C (for a global target only, this number reduces by 0.5°C). Our results indicate that although SRM would almost completely substitute for mitigation in the globally aggregated analysis, it only saves 70% to 75% of the welfare-loss compared to a purely mitigation-based analysis (from economic costs and climate risks, approximately 4% in terms of BGE) when considering regional precipitation risks in precipitation-risk-only and both-risks scenarios. It remains to be shown how the inclusion of further risks or different regional weights would

  18. Highly sensitive and multiplexed platforms for allergy diagnostics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monroe, Margo R.

    Allergy is a disorder of the immune system caused by an immune response to otherwise harmless environmental allergens. Currently 20% of the US population is allergic and 90% of pediatric patients and 60% of adult patients with asthma have allergies. These percentages have increased by 18.5% in the past decade, with predicted similar trends for the future. Here we design sensitive, multiplexed platforms to detect allergen-specific IgE using the Interferometric Reflectance Imaging Sensor (IRIS) for various clinical settings. A microarray platform for allergy diagnosis allows for testing of specific IgE sensitivity to a multitude of allergens, while requiring only small volumes of patient blood sample. However, conventional fluorescent microarray technology is limited by i) the variation of probe immobilization, which hinders the ability to make quantitative, assertive, and statistically relevant conclusions necessary in immunodiagnostics and ii) the use of fluorophore labels, which is not suitable for some clinical applications due to the tendency of fluorophores to stick to blood particulates and require daily calibration methods. This calibrated fluorescence enhancement (CaFE) method integrates the low magnification modality of IRIS with enhanced fluorescence sensing in order to directly correlate immobilized probe (major allergens) density to allergen-specific IgE in patient serum. However, this platform only operates in processed serum samples, which is not ideal for point of care testing. Thus, a high magnification modality of IRIS was adapted as an alternative allergy diagnostic platform to automatically discriminate and size single nanoparticles bound to specific IgE in unprocessed, characterized human blood and serum samples. These features make IRIS an ideal candidate for clinical and diagnostic applications, such a POC testing. The high magnification (nanoparticle counting) modality in conjunction with low magnification of IRIS in a combined instrument

  19. High temperatures and nephrology: The climate change problem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alberto de Lorenzo

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available It is well known that climate change greatly affects human health, even though there are few studies on renal outcomes. Heat waves have been found to increase cardiovascular and respiratory morbidity and mortality, as well as the risk of acute renal failure and hospitalisation due to renal diseases, with related mortality. Recurrent dehydration in people regularly exposed to high temperatures seems to be resulting in an unrecognised cause of proteinuric chronic kidney disease, the underlying pathophysiological mechanism of which is becoming better understood. However, beyond heat waves and extreme temperatures, there is a seasonal variation in glomerular filtration rate that may contribute to the onset of renal failure and electrolyte disorders during extremely hot periods. Although there are few references in the literature, serum sodium disorders seem to increase. The most vulnerable population to heat-related disease are the elderly, children, chronic patients, bedridden people, disabled people, people living alone or with little social contact, and socioeconomically disadvantaged people.

  20. Water and Fisheries: The Sensitivity of Water Supply in the Tana River Basin to Climate Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Inima, A.K.

    1998-01-01

    Wether climatic change would cause water supply in the dry areas of the earth to diminish or not is a major question. The main objective of this study was to determine wether the water supply in the Tana river Basin of Kenya would diminish in quality as a result of climate change. The Tana River Basin is the immense economic importance to Kenya and is the lifeline of Kenya's electricity supply, accounting for about 70% of the country's electricity supply. The basin houses about 30% of the country's population and 38% of the total irrigable land. A diminished water supply in this content would, therefore, hamper the economic development of the country.Kenya receives, on average, an annual rainfall of 600 mm, and hence classified as arid to semi-arid. This makes it vulnerable to adverse effects of climate change

  1. Climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fellous, J.L.

    2005-02-01

    This book starts with a series of about 20 preconceived ideas about climate and climatic change and analyses each of them in the light of the present day knowledge. Using this approach, it makes a status of the reality of the climatic change, of its causes and of the measures to be implemented to limit its impacts and reduce its most harmful consequences. (J.S.)

  2. Representation of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations in regional climate model: sensitivity to convective physics

    KAUST Repository

    Umakanth, U.

    2015-11-07

    The aim of the study is to evaluate the performance of regional climate model (RegCM) version 4.4 over south Asian CORDEX domain to simulate seasonal mean and monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (MISOs) during Indian summer monsoon. Three combinations of Grell (G) and Emanuel (E) cumulus schemes namely, RegCM-EG, RegCM-EE and RegCM-GE have been used. The model is initialized at 1st January, 2000 for a 13-year continuous simulation at a spatial resolution of 50 km. The models reasonably simulate the seasonal mean low level wind pattern though they differ in simulating mean precipitation pattern. All models produce dry bias in precipitation over Indian land region except in RegCM-EG where relatively low value of dry bias is observed. On seasonal scale, the performance of RegCM-EG is more close to observation though it fails at intraseasonal time scales. In wave number-frequency spectrum, the observed peak in zonal wind (850 hPa) at 40–50 day scale is captured by all models with a slight change in amplitude, however, the 40–50 day peak in precipitation is completely absent in RegCM-EG. The space–time characteristics of MISOs are well captured by RegCM-EE over RegCM-GE, however it fails to show the eastward propagation of the convection across the Maritime Continent. Except RegCM-EE all other models completely underestimates the moisture advection from Equatorial Indian Ocean onto Indian land region during life-cycle of MISOs. The characteristics of MISOs are studied for strong (SM) and weak (WM) monsoon years and the differences in model performances are analyzed. The wavelet spectrum of rainfall over central India denotes that, the SM years are dominated by high frequency oscillations (period <20 days) whereas little higher periods (>30 days) along with dominated low periods (<20 days) observed during WM years. During SM, RegCM-EE is dominated with high frequency oscillations (period <20 days) whereas in WM, RegCM-EE is dominated with periods >20

  3. Adjoint sensitivity analysis of high frequency structures with Matlab

    CERN Document Server

    Bakr, Mohamed; Demir, Veysel

    2017-01-01

    This book covers the theory of adjoint sensitivity analysis and uses the popular FDTD (finite-difference time-domain) method to show how wideband sensitivities can be efficiently estimated for different types of materials and structures. It includes a variety of MATLAB® examples to help readers absorb the content more easily.

  4. Polypyrrole–gold nanoparticle composites for highly sensitive DNA detection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spain, Elaine; Keyes, Tia E.; Forster, Robert J.

    2013-01-01

    DNA capture surfaces represent a powerful approach to developing highly sensitive sensors for identifying the cause of infection. Electrochemically deposited polypyrrole, PPy, films have been functionalized with electrodeposited gold nanoparticles to give a nanocomposite material, PPy–AuNP. Thiolated capture strand DNA, that is complementary to the sequence from the pathogen Staphylococcus aureus that causes mammary gland inflammation, was then immobilized onto the gold nanoparticles and any of the underlying gold electrode that is exposed. A probe strand, labelled with horse radish peroxidase, HRP, was then hybridized to the target. The concentration of the target was determined by measuring the current generated by reducing benzoquinone produced by the HRP label. Semi-log plots of the pathogen DNA concentration vs. faradaic current are linear from 150 pM to 1 μM and pM concentrations can be detected without the need for molecular, e.g., PCR or NASBA, amplification. The nanocomposite also exhibits excellent selectivity and single base mismatches in a 30 mer sequence can be detected

  5. Improvement of sensitivity in high-resolution Rutherford backscattering spectroscopy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hashimoto, H.; Nakajima, K.; Suzuki, M.; Kimura, K.; Sasakawa, K.

    2011-01-01

    The sensitivity (limit of detection) of high-resolution Rutherford backscattering spectroscopy (HRBS) is mainly determined by the background noise of the spectrometer. There are two major origins of the background noise in HRBS, one is the stray ions scattered from the inner wall of the vacuum chamber of the spectrometer and the other is the dark noise of the microchannel plate (MCP) detector which is commonly used as a focal plane detector of the spectrometer in HRBS. In order to reject the stray ions, several barriers are installed inside the spectrometer and a thin Mylar foil is mounted in front of the detector. The dark noise of the MCP detector is rejected by the coincidence measurement with the secondary electrons emitted from the Mylar foil upon the ion passage. After these improvements, the background noise is reduced by a factor of 200 at a maximum. The detection limit can be improved down to 10 ppm for As in Si at a measurement time of 1 h under ideal conditions.

  6. Highly sensitive MoS2 photodetectors with graphene contacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Peize; St. Marie, Luke; Wang, Qing X.; Quirk, Nicholas; El Fatimy, Abdel; Ishigami, Masahiro; Barbara, Paola

    2018-05-01

    Two-dimensional materials such as graphene and transition metal dichalcogenides (TMDs) are ideal candidates to create ultra-thin electronics suitable for flexible substrates. Although optoelectronic devices based on TMDs have demonstrated remarkable performance, scalability is still a significant issue. Most devices are created using techniques that are not suitable for mass production, such as mechanical exfoliation of monolayer flakes and patterning by electron-beam lithography. Here we show that large-area MoS2 grown by chemical vapor deposition and patterned by photolithography yields highly sensitive photodetectors, with record shot-noise-limited detectivities of 8.7 × 1014 Jones in ambient condition and even higher when sealed with a protective layer. These detectivity values are higher than the highest values reported for photodetectors based on exfoliated MoS2. We study MoS2 devices with gold electrodes and graphene electrodes. The devices with graphene electrodes have a tunable band alignment and are especially attractive for scalable ultra-thin flexible optoelectronics.

  7. Ultra-high sensitivity imaging of cancer using SERRS nanoparticles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kircher, Moritz F.

    2016-05-01

    "Surface-enhanced Raman spectroscopy" (SERS) nanoparticles have gained much attention in recent years for in silico, in vitro and in vivo sensing applications. Our group has developed novel generations of biocompatible "surfaceenhanced resonance Raman spectroscopy" (SERRS) nanoparticles as novel molecular imaging agents. Via rigorous optimization of the different variables contributing to the Raman enhancement, we were able to design SERRS nanoparticles with so far unprecedented sensitivity of detection under in vivo imaging conditions (femto-attomolar range). This has resulted in our ability to visualize, with a single nanoparticle, many different cancer types (after intravenous injection) in mouse models. The cancer types we have tested so far include brain, breast, esophagus, stomach, pancreas, colon, sarcoma, and prostate cancer. All mouse models used are state-of-the-art and closely mimic the tumor biology in their human counterparts. In these animals, we were able to visualize not only the bulk tumors, but importantly also microscopic extensions and locoregional satellite metastases, thus delineating for the first time the true extent of tumor spread. Moreover, the particles enable the detection of premalignant lesions. Given their inert composition they are expected to have a high chance for clinical translation, where we envision them to have an impact in various scenarios ranging from early detection, image-guidance in open or minimally invasive surgical procedures, to noninvasive imaging in conjunction with spatially offset (SESORS) Raman detection devices.

  8. Characterization of three high efficiency and blue sensitive silicon photomultipliers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Otte, Adam Nepomuk, E-mail: otte@gatech.edu; Garcia, Distefano; Nguyen, Thanh; Purushotham, Dhruv

    2017-02-21

    We report about the optical and electrical characterization of three high efficiency and blue sensitive Silicon photomultipliers from FBK, Hamamatsu, and SensL. Key features of the tested devices when operated at 90% breakdown probability are peak photon detection efficiencies between 40% and 55%, temperature dependencies of gain and PDE that are less than 1%/°C, dark rates of ∼50 kHz/mm{sup 2} at room temperature, afterpulsing of about 2%, and direct optical crosstalk between 6% and 20%. The characteristics of all three devices impressively demonstrate how the Silicon-photomultiplier technology has improved over the past ten years. It is further demonstrated how the voltage and temperature characteristics of a number of quantities can be parameterized on the basis of physical models. The models provide a deeper understanding of the device characteristics over a wide bias and temperature range. They also serve as examples how producers could provide the characteristics of their SiPMs to users. A standardized parameterization of SiPMs would enable users to find the optimal SiPM for their application and the operating point of SiPMs without having to perform measurements thus significantly reducing design and development cycles.

  9. Threshold sensitivity of shallow Arctic lakes and sublake permafrost to changing winter climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arp, Christopher D.; Jones, Benjamin M.; Grosse, Guido; Bondurant, Allen C.; Romanovksy, Vladimir E.; Hinkel, Kenneth M.; Parsekian, Andrew D.

    2016-01-01

    Interactions and feedbacks between abundant surface waters and permafrost fundamentally shape lowland Arctic landscapes. Sublake permafrost is maintained when the maximum ice thickness (MIT) exceeds lake depth and mean annual bed temperatures (MABTs) remain below freezing. However, declining MIT since the 1970s is likely causing talik development below shallow lakes. Here we show high-temperature sensitivity to winter ice growth at the water-sediment interface of shallow lakes based on year-round lake sensor data. Empirical model experiments suggest that shallow (1 m depth) lakes have warmed substantially over the last 30 years (2.4°C), with MABT above freezing 5 of the last 7 years. This is in comparison to slower rates of warming in deeper (3 m) lakes (0.9°C), with already well-developed taliks. Our findings indicate that permafrost below shallow lakes has already begun crossing a critical thawing threshold approximately 70 years prior to predicted terrestrial permafrost thaw in northern Alaska.

  10. Introducing wet aerosols into the static high sensitivity ICP (SHIP)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Scheffer, Andy; Engelhard, Carsten; Sperling, Michael; Buscher, Wolfgang [University of Muenster, Institute of Inorganic and Analytical Chemistry, Muenster (Germany)

    2007-08-15

    A demountable design of the static high sensitivity ICP (SHIP) for optical emission spectrometry is presented, and its use as an excitation source with the introduction of wet aerosols was investigated. Aerosols were produced by standard pneumatic sample introduction systems, namely a cross flow nebulizer, Meinhard nebulizer and PFA low flow nebulizer, which have been applied in conjunction with a double pass and a cyclonic spray chamber. The analytical capabilities of these sample introduction systems in combination with the SHIP system were evaluated with respect to the achieved sensitivity. It was found that a nebulizer tailored for low argon flow rates (0.3-0.5 L min{sup -1}) is best suited for the low flow plasma (SHIP). An optimization of all gas flow rates of the SHIP system with the PFA low flow nebulizer was carried out in a two-dimensional way with the signal to background ratio (SBR) and the robustness as optimization target parameters. Optimum conditions for a torch model with 1-mm injector tube were 0.25 and 0.36 L min{sup -1} for the plasma gas and the nebulizer gas, respectively. A torch model with a 2-mm injector tube was optimized to 0.4 L min{sup -1} for the plasma gas and 0.44 L min{sup -1} for the nebulizer gas. In both cases the SHIP system saves approximately 95% of the argon consumed by conventional inductively coupled plasma systems. The limits of detection were found to be in the low microgram per litre range and below for many elements, which was quite comparable to those of the conventional setup. Furthermore, the short-term stability and the wash out behaviour of the SHIP were investigated. Direct comparison with the conventional setup indicated that no remarkable memory effects were caused by the closed design of the torch. The analysis of a NIST SRM 1643e (Trace Elements in Water) with the SHIP yielded recoveries of 97-103% for 13 elements, measured simultaneously. (orig.)

  11. Utilization of Short-Simulations for Tuning High-Resolution Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, W.; Xie, S.; Ma, P. L.; Rasch, P. J.; Qian, Y.; Wan, H.; Ma, H. Y.; Klein, S. A.

    2016-12-01

    Many physical parameterizations in atmospheric models are sensitive to resolution. Tuning the models that involve a multitude of parameters at high resolution is computationally expensive, particularly when relying primarily on multi-year simulations. This work describes a complementary set of strategies for tuning high-resolution atmospheric models, using ensembles of short simulations to reduce the computational cost and elapsed time. Specifically, we utilize the hindcast approach developed through the DOE Cloud Associated Parameterization Testbed (CAPT) project for high-resolution model tuning, which is guided by a combination of short (tests have been found to be effective in numerous previous studies in identifying model biases due to parameterized fast physics, and we demonstrate that it is also useful for tuning. After the most egregious errors are addressed through an initial "rough" tuning phase, longer simulations are performed to "hone in" on model features that evolve over longer timescales. We explore these strategies to tune the DOE ACME (Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy) model. For the ACME model at 0.25° resolution, it is confirmed that, given the same parameters, major biases in global mean statistics and many spatial features are consistent between Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP)-type simulations and CAPT-type hindcasts, with just a small number of short-term simulations for the latter over the corresponding season. The use of CAPT hindcasts to find parameter choice for the reduction of large model biases dramatically improves the turnaround time for the tuning at high resolution. Improvement seen in CAPT hindcasts generally translates to improved AMIP-type simulations. An iterative CAPT-AMIP tuning approach is therefore adopted during each major tuning cycle, with the former to survey the likely responses and narrow the parameter space, and the latter to verify the results in climate context along with assessment in

  12. The sensitivity of wet and dry tropical forests to climate change in Bolivia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Seiler, C.; Hutjes, R.W.A.; Kruijt, B.; Hickler, T.

    2015-01-01

    Bolivia's forests contribute to the global carbon and water cycle, as well as to global biodiversity. The survival of these forests may be at risk due to climate change. To explore the associated mechanisms and uncertainties, a regionally adapted dynamic vegetation model was implemented for the

  13. Sensitivity of burned area in Europe to climate change, atmospheric CO2 levels, and demography

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wu, Minchao; Knorr, Wolfgang; Thonicke, Kirsten

    2015-01-01

    model. Applying a range of future projections that combine different scenarios for climate changes, enhanced CO2 concentrations, and population growth, we investigated the individual and combined effects of these drivers on the total area and regions affected by fire in the 21st century. The two models...

  14. Cereal production, high status and climate in Medieval Iceland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erlendsson, Egill; Riddell, Scott

    2017-04-01

    At Hrísbrú (formerly the medieval Mosfell estate) in the Mosfell Valley, southwest Iceland, archaeologists have excavated a medieval skáli (hall) proposed to be the high status residence of a chieftain. This is indicated by the size of the skáli, artefacts (foreign goods), archaeofaunal (cattle/sheep bone) ratios and macrobotanical remains (cereal grain). The analysis of pollen from nearby natural contexts suggests that cereals were grown locally. Using multiple profile palynological approach, this paper examines if the apparent cereal production is representative of high status in the Icelandic context. First as a correlate by confirming that cereals were grown in association with the archaeological features characteristic of high status; secondly, as an indicator in its own right through comparison with other palynological datasets from inferred lower status farms. The presence or absence of cereal-type pollen (cf. barley) and other arable correlates was examined for each site. The results suggest that medieval cereal cultivation in the Mosfell Valley was confined to the landholding of the medieval Mosfell estate. This feature is seen as an attribute of the locale's greater status in relation to the other farms in Mosfell Valley. The abandonment of cereal cultivation at the Mosfell estate around AD 1200 is probably associated with interactions between changes in the nation's social power structure and how marginal cereal production in Iceland was (and is) in terms of climate.

  15. Climate change sensitivity of the African ivory nut palm, Hyphaena petersiana Klotzsch ex Mart. (arecaceae) - a keystone species in SE Africa

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Overgaard, Anne Blach; Svenning, J.-C.; Balslev, Henrik

    2009-01-01

    the climate sensitivity of the key-stone palm species Hyphaene petersiana (African ivory nut palm) in southern Africa. We tested the relative roles of climate vs. non-climatic range-controls and found that climate had a clear effect on the range of H. petersiana and that especially water-related variables......Africa is the most vulnerable continent to future climate change. Profound changes are projected for southwestern Africa with increased drying, notably with delayed onset of the rainy season in September-November, and temperature increases in all seasons. The projected climate changes combined...... species by humans and livestock are likely to exacerbate the negative effect of future climate changes on its populations, especially, given the expected human population increase in Africa....

  16. A sensitivity study to global desertification in cold and warm climates: results from the IPSL OAGCM model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alkama, Ramdane [GAME/CNRM, CNRS/Meteo-France, Toulouse (France); Kageyama, Masa; Ramstein, Gilles [LSCE/IPSL UMR CEA-CNRS-UVSQ 8212, Gif sur Yvette (France)

    2012-04-15

    Many simulations have been devoted to study the impact of global desertification on climate, but very few have quantified this impact in very different climate contexts. Here, the climatic impacts of large-scale global desertification in warm (2100 under the SRES A2 scenario forcing), modern and cold (Last Glacial Maximum, 21 thousand years ago) climates are assessed by using the IPSL OAGCM. For each climate, two simulations have been performed, one in which the continents are covered by modern vegetation, the other in which global vegetation is changed to desert i.e. bare soil. The comparison between desert and present vegetation worlds reveals that the prevailing signal in terms of surface energy budget is dominated by the reduction of upward latent heat transfer. Replacing the vegetation by bare soil has similar impacts on surface air temperature South of 20 N in all three climatic contexts, with a warming over tropical forests and a slight cooling over semi-arid and arid areas, and these temperature changes are of the same order of magnitude. North of 20 N, the difference between the temperatures simulated with present day vegetation and in a desert world is mainly due to the change in net radiation related to the modulation of the snow albedo by vegetation, which is obviously absent in the desert world simulations. The enhanced albedo in the desert world simulations induces a large temperature decrease, especially during summer in the cold and modern climatic contexts, whereas the largest difference occurs during winter in the warm climate. This temperature difference requires a larger heat transport to the northern high latitudes. Part of this heat transport increase is achieved through an intensification of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. This intensification reduces the sea-ice extent and causes a warming over the North Atlantic and Arctic oceans in the warm climate context. In contrast, the large cooling North of 20 N in both the modern

  17. Global agricultural land resources--a high resolution suitability evaluation and its perspectives until 2100 under climate change conditions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florian Zabel

    Full Text Available Changing natural conditions determine the land's suitability for agriculture. The growing demand for food, feed, fiber and bioenergy increases pressure on land and causes trade-offs between different uses of land and ecosystem services. Accordingly, an inventory is required on the changing potentially suitable areas for agriculture under changing climate conditions. We applied a fuzzy logic approach to compute global agricultural suitability to grow the 16 most important food and energy crops according to the climatic, soil and topographic conditions at a spatial resolution of 30 arc seconds. We present our results for current climate conditions (1981-2010, considering today's irrigated areas and separately investigate the suitability of densely forested as well as protected areas, in order to investigate their potentials for agriculture. The impact of climate change under SRES A1B conditions, as simulated by the global climate model ECHAM5, on agricultural suitability is shown by comparing the time-period 2071-2100 with 1981-2010. Our results show that climate change will expand suitable cropland by additionally 5.6 million km2, particularly in the Northern high latitudes (mainly in Canada, China and Russia. Most sensitive regions with decreasing suitability are found in the Global South, mainly in tropical regions, where also the suitability for multiple cropping decreases.

  18. Boreal mire carbon exchange: sensitivity to climate change and anthropogenic nitrogen and sulfur deposition

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eriksson, Tobias

    2010-07-01

    Boreal peatlands are important long-term sinks of atmospheric carbon and in the same time the largest natural source of methane to the atmosphere. A changing climate as well as deposition of anthropogenically derived pollutants, such as nitrogen and sulfur, has the potential to affect the processes that control the carbon exchange in peatlands. Many of the biogeochemical responses to changed environmental conditions, such as changed plant community composition, are slow and therefore long-term studies are required. In this thesis I have investigated the long-term effects of nitrogen addition, sulfur addition and greenhouse enclosures on carbon exchange by using a field manipulation experiment in a boreal minerogenic, oligotrophic mire after 10-12 years of treatment. Treatment effects on CH{sub 4} emissions, gross primary production (GPP), ecosystem respiration (Reco) and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) were estimated from 1-2 seasons of chamber flux measurements. Treatment effects on potential CH{sub 4} production and oxidation were estimated in incubations of peat from different depth intervals. The effect of nitrogen deposition on carbon accumulation was evaluated in peat cores at different depth intervals. The long-term nitrogen additions have: shifted plant community composition from being dominated by Sphagnum to being dominated by sedges and dwarf shrubs; changed mire surface microtopography so that mean water table is closer to the surface in plots with high nitrogen; increased CH{sub 4} production and emission; increased Reco slightly but have not affected GPP or NEE; reduced the peat height increment, but increased both peat bulk density and carbon content, leading to an unchanged carbon accumulation. The long-term sulfur additions have not reduced CH{sub 4} emissions, only slightly reduced CH{sub 4} production and did not have any effect on the CO{sub 2} carbon exchange. The greenhouse treatment, manifested in increased air and soil temperatures, reduced

  19. Detection and Attribution of Climate Change : From global mean temperature change to climate extremes and high impact weather.

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva

    2013-01-01

    This talk will describe how evidence has grown in recent years for a human influence on climate and explain how the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded that it is extremely likely (>95% probability) that human influence on climate has been the dominant cause of the observed global-mean warming since the mid-20th century. The fingerprint of human activities has also been detected in warming of the ocean, in changes in the global water cycle, in reductions in snow and ice, and in changes in some climate extremes. The strengthening of evidence for the effects of human influence on climate extremes is in line with long-held basic understanding of the consequences of mean warming for temperature extremes and for atmospheric moisture. Despite such compelling evidence this does not mean that every instance of high impact weather can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change, because climate variability is often a major factor in many locations, especially for rain...

  20. Highly Sensitive Tunable Diode Laser Spectrometers for In Situ Planetary Exploration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vasudev, Ram; Mansour, Kamjou; Webster, Christopher R.

    2013-01-01

    This paper describes highly sensitive tunable diode laser spectrometers suitable for in situ planetary exploration. The technology developed at JPL is based on wavelength modulated cavity enhanced absorption spectroscopy. It is capable of sensitively detecting chemical signatures of life through the abundance of biogenic molecules and their isotopic composition, and chemicals such as water necessary for habitats of life. The technology would be suitable for searching for biomarkers, extinct life, potential habitats of extant life, and signatures of ancient climates on Mars; and for detecting biomarkers, prebiotic chemicals and habitats of life in the outer Solar System. It would be useful for prospecting for water on the Moon and asteroids, and characterizing its isotopic composition. Deployment on the Moon could provide ground truth to the recent remote measurements and help to uncover precious records of the early bombardment history of the inner Solar System buried at the shadowed poles, and elucidate the mechanism for the generation of near-surface water in the illuminated regions. The technology would also be useful for detecting other volatile molecules in planetary atmospheres and subsurface reservoirs, isotopic characterization of planetary materials, and searching for signatures of extinct life preserved in solid matrices.

  1. A Energy Balance Analysis of the Climate Sensitivity to Variations in the Rate of Upwelling in the World Oceans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morantine, Michael Creighton

    -scale to be the source of the dynamic interaction responsible for this abrupt climatic event. The process employed in the dimension reduction used in the formulation of lower-order EBM's will be illustrated through the development of the equations, pointing out the inherent assumptions which must be made when developing one- and two-dimensional models as they are required. One -, two- and three-dimensional energy balance models will be analyzed and the results of climate sensitivity to upwelling variations will be presented graphically for each case.

  2. High-sensitivity Cardiac Troponin Elevation after Electroconvulsive Therapy (ECT)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duma, Andreas; Pal, Swatilika; Johnston, Joshua; Helwani, Mohammad A.; Bhat, Adithya; Gill, Bali; Rosenkvist, Jessica; Cartmill, Christopher; Brown, Frank; Miller, J. Philip; Scott, Mitchell G; Sanchez-Conde, Francisco; Jarvis, Michael; Farber, Nuri B.; Zorumski, Charles F.; Conway, Charles; Nagele, Peter

    2017-01-01

    Background While electroconvulsive therapy (ECT) is widely regarded as a life-saving and safe procedure, evidence regarding its effects on myocardial cell injury are sparse. The objective of this investigation was to determine incidence and magnitude of new cardiac troponin elevation after ECT using a novel high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I (hscTnI) assay. Methods This was a prospective cohort study in adult patients undergoing ECT in a single academic center (up to three ECT treatments per patient). The primary outcome was new hscTnI elevation after ECT, defined as an increase of hscTnI >100% after ECT compared to baseline with at least one value above the limit of quantification (10 ng/L). 12-lead ECG and hscTnI values were obtained prior to and 15–30 minutes after ECT; in a subset of patients an additional 2-hour hscTnI value was obtained. Results The final study population was 100 patients and a total of 245 ECT treatment sessions. Eight patients (8/100, 8%) experienced new hscTnI elevation after ECT with a cumulative incidence of 3.7% (9/245 treatments; one patient had two hscTnI elevations), two of whom had a non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction (incidence 2/245, 0.8%). Median hscTnI concentrations did not increase significantly after ECT. Tachycardia and/or elevated systolic blood pressure developed after approximately two thirds of ECT treatments. Conclusions ECT appears safe from a cardiac standpoint in a large majority of patients. A small subset of patients with pre-existing cardiovascular risk factors, however, may develop new cardiac troponin elevation after ECT, the clinical relevance of which is unclear in the absence of signs of myocardial ischemia. PMID:28166110

  3. Input variable selection for interpolating high-resolution climate ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Although the primary input data of climate interpolations are usually meteorological data, other related (independent) variables are frequently incorporated in the interpolation process. One such variable is elevation, which is known to have a strong influence on climate. This research investigates the potential of 4 additional ...

  4. High-intensity xenon plasma discharge lamp for bulk-sensitive high-resolution photoemission spectroscopy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Souma, S; Sato, T; Takahashi, T; Baltzer, P

    2007-12-01

    We have developed a highly brilliant xenon (Xe) discharge lamp operated by microwave-induced electron cyclotron resonance (ECR) for ultrahigh-resolution bulk-sensitive photoemission spectroscopy (PES). We observed at least eight strong radiation lines from neutral or singly ionized Xe atoms in the energy region of 8.4-10.7 eV. The photon flux of the strongest Xe I resonance line at 8.437 eV is comparable to that of the He Ialpha line (21.218 eV) from the He-ECR discharge lamp. Stable operation for more than 300 h is achieved by efficient air-cooling of a ceramic tube in the resonance cavity. The high bulk sensitivity and high-energy resolution of PES using the Xe lines are demonstrated for some typical materials.

  5. Development of high sensitivity and high speed large size blank inspection system LBIS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ohara, Shinobu; Yoshida, Akinori; Hirai, Mitsuo; Kato, Takenori; Moriizumi, Koichi; Kusunose, Haruhiko

    2017-07-01

    The production of high-resolution flat panel displays (FPDs) for mobile phones today requires the use of high-quality large-size photomasks (LSPMs). Organic light emitting diode (OLED) displays use several transistors on each pixel for precise current control and, as such, the mask patterns for OLED displays are denser and finer than the patterns for the previous generation displays throughout the entire mask surface. It is therefore strongly demanded that mask patterns be produced with high fidelity and free of defect. To enable the production of a high quality LSPM in a short lead time, the manufacturers need a high-sensitivity high-speed mask blank inspection system that meets the requirement of advanced LSPMs. Lasertec has developed a large-size blank inspection system called LBIS, which achieves high sensitivity based on a laser-scattering technique. LBIS employs a high power laser as its inspection light source. LBIS's delivery optics, including a scanner and F-Theta scan lens, focus the light from the source linearly on the surface of the blank. Its specially-designed optics collect the light scattered by particles and defects generated during the manufacturing process, such as scratches, on the surface and guide it to photo multiplier tubes (PMTs) with high efficiency. Multiple PMTs are used on LBIS for the stable detection of scattered light, which may be distributed at various angles due to irregular shapes of defects. LBIS captures 0.3mμ PSL at a detection rate of over 99.5% with uniform sensitivity. Its inspection time is 20 minutes for a G8 blank and 35 minutes for G10. The differential interference contrast (DIC) microscope on the inspection head of LBIS captures high-contrast review images after inspection. The images are classified automatically.

  6. Vulnerability and adaptation of ecologically sensitive mangrove habitats to the changing climate

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Jagtap, T.G.; Kulkarni, V.A.; Verlekar, X.N.

    has risen 10-20cm during the Twentieth century. General Circulation Models (GCM) projected a 9.88cm rise in sea level, increased extreme weather events and precipitation over the Asian region (UNEP / UNESCO, 1992, IPPC, 2001). However a lot... Scientific Assessment. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 578 pp. INQUA, 2000. Homepage of the Commission on Sea Level Changes and Coastal Evolution, www.pog.su.se/sea. Sea level changes, News and Views, The Maldives Project IPPC, 2001. Climate...

  7. Sensitivity of the carbon cycle in the Arctic to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    A.D. McGuire; L.G. Anderson; T.R. Christensen; S. Dallimore; L. Guo; D.J. Hayes; M. Heimann; T.D. Lorenson; R.W. Macdonald; N. Roulet

    2009-01-01

    The recent warming in the Arctic is affecting a broad spectrum of physical, ecological, and human/cultural systems that may be irreversible on century time scales and have the potential to cause rapid changes in the earth system. The response of the carbon cycle of the Arctic to changes in climate is a major issue of global concern, yet there has not been a...

  8. Climatic Sensitivity of a Mixed Forest Association of White Spruce and Trembling Aspen at Their Southern Range Limit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sophan Chhin

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Climatic sensitivity of white spruce (Picea glauca (Moench Voss was examined growing in association with trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx. at their southern limit of distribution in a transitional ecotone between the southern boreal forest and northern prairie region. The study was carried out in the Spruce Woods Provincial Park (SWPP located in southwestern Manitoba, Canada. The dry regional climate restricted trembling aspen growth during the growing season via moisture deficiency and temperature induced drought stress. Warm, mild winters also negatively affected radial growth of trembling aspen. Growth of white spruce was moderated by conditions within the aspen stands as radial growth patterns showed low variability from year to year, a low common growth signal, and a stronger response to temperature than to precipitation. Nonetheless, the dry regional climate still restricted growth of white spruce during the growing season via temperature induced drought stress. The findings of the study for white spruce support the stress gradient hypothesis in which facilitative interactions between tree species are expected under harsher environmental conditions.

  9. Farmer response to climatic and agricultural market drivers: characteristic time scales and sensitivities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wurster, P. M.; Maneta, M. P.; Vicente-Serrano, S. M.; Beguería, S.; Silverman, N. L.; Holden, Z.

    2017-12-01

    Agriculture in the intermountain western United States is dominated by extensive farming and ranching, mostly reliant on rainfed crops and therefore very exposed to precipitation shortfalls. It is also poorly diversified, dominated by five or six major grain crops, which makes it vulnerable to changes in agricultural markets. The economy of the region is very reliant on this type of agriculture, making the entire economy vulnerable to climatic and market fluctuations. Western agriculture is also of significant importance for national food security. Resource managers in the region are increasingly concerned with the impacts that more frequent and severe droughts, or the collapse of crop prices, may have on producers and food production. Effective resource management requires an understanding not only of the regional impact of adverse climatic and market events, but also of which geographic areas are most vulnerable, and why. Unfortunately, few studies exist that look into how farmers in different geographic areas respond to climate and market drivers. In this study we analyze the influence of precipitation and crop price anomalies on crop production, and map the characteristic time scale of these anomalies that correlate best with production anomalies for the 56 counties of Montana, U.S.A. We conduct this analysis using the standardized precipitation index (SPI), and defining a standardized crop value index (SCVI) and a standardized crop production index (SCPI). We use 38 years of data to calculate precipitation anomalies at monthly time scales and annual data to calculate crop price and production anomalies. The standardization of the indices allows for straightforward comparison of the relative influence of climatic and market fluctuations on production anomalies. We apply our methodology to winter wheat, spring durum wheat, barley, alfalfa, and beets which are the most valuable crops produced in the state. Results from this study show that precipitation anomalies

  10. Criteria for the prioritization of public health interventions for climate-sensitive vector-borne diseases in Quebec.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valerie Hongoh

    Full Text Available Prioritizing resources for optimal responses to an ever growing list of existing and emerging infectious diseases represents an important challenge to public health. In the context of climate change, there is increasing anticipated variability in the occurrence of infectious diseases, notably climate-sensitive vector-borne diseases. An essential step in prioritizing efforts is to identify what considerations and concerns to take into account to guide decisions and thus set disease priorities. This study was designed to perform a comprehensive review of criteria for vector-borne disease prioritization, assess their applicability in a context of climate change with a diverse cross-section of stakeholders in order to produce a baseline list of considerations to use in this decision-making context. Differences in stakeholder choices were examined with regards to prioritization of these criteria for research, surveillance and disease prevention and control objectives. A preliminary list of criteria was identified following a review of the literature. Discussions with stakeholders were held to consolidate and validate this list of criteria and examine their effects on disease prioritization. After this validation phase, a total of 21 criteria were retained. A pilot vector-borne disease prioritization exercise was conducted using PROMETHEE to examine the effects of the retained criteria on prioritization in different intervention domains. Overall, concerns expressed by stakeholders for prioritization were well aligned with categories of criteria identified in previous prioritization studies. Weighting by category was consistent between stakeholders overall, though some significant differences were found between public health and non-public health stakeholders. From this exercise, a general model for climate-sensitive vector-borne disease prioritization has been developed that can be used as a starting point for further public health prioritization

  11. Criteria for the prioritization of public health interventions for climate-sensitive vector-borne diseases in Quebec.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hongoh, Valerie; Gosselin, Pierre; Michel, Pascal; Ravel, André; Waaub, Jean-Philippe; Campagna, Céline; Samoura, Karim

    2017-01-01

    Prioritizing resources for optimal responses to an ever growing list of existing and emerging infectious diseases represents an important challenge to public health. In the context of climate change, there is increasing anticipated variability in the occurrence of infectious diseases, notably climate-sensitive vector-borne diseases. An essential step in prioritizing efforts is to identify what considerations and concerns to take into account to guide decisions and thus set disease priorities. This study was designed to perform a comprehensive review of criteria for vector-borne disease prioritization, assess their applicability in a context of climate change with a diverse cross-section of stakeholders in order to produce a baseline list of considerations to use in this decision-making context. Differences in stakeholder choices were examined with regards to prioritization of these criteria for research, surveillance and disease prevention and control objectives. A preliminary list of criteria was identified following a review of the literature. Discussions with stakeholders were held to consolidate and validate this list of criteria and examine their effects on disease prioritization. After this validation phase, a total of 21 criteria were retained. A pilot vector-borne disease prioritization exercise was conducted using PROMETHEE to examine the effects of the retained criteria on prioritization in different intervention domains. Overall, concerns expressed by stakeholders for prioritization were well aligned with categories of criteria identified in previous prioritization studies. Weighting by category was consistent between stakeholders overall, though some significant differences were found between public health and non-public health stakeholders. From this exercise, a general model for climate-sensitive vector-borne disease prioritization has been developed that can be used as a starting point for further public health prioritization exercises relating to

  12. Model dependence of isospin sensitive observables at high densities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Guo, Wen-Mei [Institute of Modern Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000 (China); University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049 (China); School of Science, Huzhou Teachers College, Huzhou 313000 (China); Yong, Gao-Chan, E-mail: yonggaochan@impcas.ac.cn [Institute of Modern Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000 (China); State Key Laboratory of Theoretical Physics, Institute of Theoretical Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190 (China); Wang, Yongjia [School of Science, Huzhou Teachers College, Huzhou 313000 (China); School of Nuclear Science and Technology, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000 (China); Li, Qingfeng [School of Science, Huzhou Teachers College, Huzhou 313000 (China); Zhang, Hongfei [School of Nuclear Science and Technology, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000 (China); State Key Laboratory of Theoretical Physics, Institute of Theoretical Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190 (China); Zuo, Wei [Institute of Modern Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000 (China); State Key Laboratory of Theoretical Physics, Institute of Theoretical Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190 (China)

    2013-10-07

    Within two different frameworks of isospin-dependent transport model, i.e., Boltzmann–Uehling–Uhlenbeck (IBUU04) and Ultrarelativistic Quantum Molecular Dynamics (UrQMD) transport models, sensitive probes of nuclear symmetry energy are simulated and compared. It is shown that neutron to proton ratio of free nucleons, π{sup −}/π{sup +} ratio as well as isospin-sensitive transverse and elliptic flows given by the two transport models with their “best settings”, all have obvious differences. Discrepancy of numerical value of isospin-sensitive n/p ratio of free nucleon from the two models mainly originates from different symmetry potentials used and discrepancies of numerical value of charged π{sup −}/π{sup +} ratio and isospin-sensitive flows mainly originate from different isospin-dependent nucleon–nucleon cross sections. These demonstrations call for more detailed studies on the model inputs (i.e., the density- and momentum-dependent symmetry potential and the isospin-dependent nucleon–nucleon cross section in medium) of isospin-dependent transport model used. The studies of model dependence of isospin sensitive observables can help nuclear physicists to pin down the density dependence of nuclear symmetry energy through comparison between experiments and theoretical simulations scientifically.

  13. Sensitivity of a carbon and productivity model to climatic, water, terrain, and biophysical parameters in a Rocky Mountain watershed

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xu, S.; Peddle, D.R.; Coburn, C.A.; Kienzle, S. [Univ. of Lethbridge, Dept. of Geography, Lethbridge, Alberta (Canada)

    2008-06-15

    Net primary productivity (NPP) is a key component of the terrestrial carbon cycle and is important in ecological, watershed, and forest management studies, and more broadly in global climate change research. Determining the relative importance and magnitude of uncertainty of NPP model inputs is important for proper carbon reporting over larger areas and time periods. This paper presents a systematic evaluation of the boreal ecosystem productivity simulator (BEPS) model in mountainous terrain using an established montane forest test site in Kananaskis, Alberta, in the Canadian Rocky Mountains. Model runs were based on forest (land cover, leaf area index (LAI), biomass) and climate-water inputs (solar radiation, temperature, precipitation, humidity, soil water holding capacity) derived from digital elevation model (DEM) derivatives, climate data, geographical information system (GIS) functions, and topographically corrected satellite imagery. Four sensitivity analyses were conducted as a controlled series of experiments involving (i) NPP individual parameter sensitivity for a full growing season, (ii) NPP independent variation tests (parameter {mu} {+-} 1{sigma}), (iii) factorial analyses to assess more complex multiple-factor interactions, and (iv) topographic correction. The results, validated against field measurements, showed that modeled NPP was sensitive to most inputs measured in the study area, with LAI and forest type the most important forest input, and solar radiation the most important climate input. Soil available water holding capacity expressed as a function of wetness index was only significant in conjunction with precipitation when both parameters represented a moisture-deficit situation. NPP uncertainty resulting from topographic influence was equivalent to 140 kg C ha{sup -1}{center_dot}year{sup -1}. This suggested that topographic correction of model inputs is important for accurate NPP estimation. The BEPS model, designed originally for flat

  14. Sensitivity of a carbon and productivity model to climatic, water, terrain, and biophysical parameters in a Rocky Mountain watershed

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xu, S.; Peddle, D.R.; Coburn, C.A.; Kienzle, S.

    2008-01-01

    Net primary productivity (NPP) is a key component of the terrestrial carbon cycle and is important in ecological, watershed, and forest management studies, and more broadly in global climate change research. Determining the relative importance and magnitude of uncertainty of NPP model inputs is important for proper carbon reporting over larger areas and time periods. This paper presents a systematic evaluation of the boreal ecosystem productivity simulator (BEPS) model in mountainous terrain using an established montane forest test site in Kananaskis, Alberta, in the Canadian Rocky Mountains. Model runs were based on forest (land cover, leaf area index (LAI), biomass) and climate-water inputs (solar radiation, temperature, precipitation, humidity, soil water holding capacity) derived from digital elevation model (DEM) derivatives, climate data, geographical information system (GIS) functions, and topographically corrected satellite imagery. Four sensitivity analyses were conducted as a controlled series of experiments involving (i) NPP individual parameter sensitivity for a full growing season, (ii) NPP independent variation tests (parameter μ ± 1σ), (iii) factorial analyses to assess more complex multiple-factor interactions, and (iv) topographic correction. The results, validated against field measurements, showed that modeled NPP was sensitive to most inputs measured in the study area, with LAI and forest type the most important forest input, and solar radiation the most important climate input. Soil available water holding capacity expressed as a function of wetness index was only significant in conjunction with precipitation when both parameters represented a moisture-deficit situation. NPP uncertainty resulting from topographic influence was equivalent to 140 kg C ha -1 ·year -1 . This suggested that topographic correction of model inputs is important for accurate NPP estimation. The BEPS model, designed originally for flat boreal forests, was shown to be

  15. High contrast sensitivity for visually guided flight control in bumblebees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chakravarthi, Aravin; Kelber, Almut; Baird, Emily; Dacke, Marie

    2017-12-01

    Many insects rely on vision to find food, to return to their nest and to carefully control their flight between these two locations. The amount of information available to support these tasks is, in part, dictated by the spatial resolution and contrast sensitivity of their visual systems. Here, we investigate the absolute limits of these visual properties for visually guided position and speed control in Bombus terrestris. Our results indicate that the limit of spatial vision in the translational motion detection system of B. terrestris lies at 0.21 cycles deg -1 with a peak contrast sensitivity of at least 33. In the perspective of earlier findings, these results indicate that bumblebees have higher contrast sensitivity in the motion detection system underlying position control than in their object discrimination system. This suggests that bumblebees, and most likely also other insects, have different visual thresholds depending on the behavioral context.

  16. Metal ion-organic compound for high sensitive ESR dosimetry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hassan, G.M.; Ikeya, Motoji

    2000-01-01

    A systematic study to find a tissue equivalent and high sensitive dosimeter material has been made to stimulate the field of ESR dosimetry. Lithium acetate dihydrate (Li-Ac·2H 2 O:CH 3 COOLi·2H 2 O) and lithium phosphate (Li-phosphate:Li 3 PO 4 ) were irradiated by γ-rays to study radicals with (ESR) in addition to magnesium lactate (Mg-lactate (CH 3 CH(OH)COO) 2 Mg) doped with nominal pure lithium lactate (Mg(Li)-lactate) and lithium lactate (CH 3 CH(OH)COOLi) doped with Mg-lactate (Li(Mg)-lactate). A triplet spectrum with intensity ratio of 1:2:1 in Li-Ac·2H 2 O was ascribed to acetate radical which has g=2.0031±0.0004 and hyperfine splitting of A/gβ=2.12±0.1 mT. The Li-phosphate spectrum shows splitting due to anisotropic g-factors of g par =2.0190±0.0005 and g perp =1.9974±0.0004. Quartet spectra with the intensity ratio of 1:3:3:1 in Mg(Li)-lactate and Li(Mg)-lactate were ascribed to lactate radicals with g-factors of 2.0032 ± 0.0004 and 2.0029 ± 0.0004 and the intensity ratio of 1:3:3:1 and A/gβ=1.92±0.06 and 1.82 ± 0.06 mT, respectively. The response to γ-ray dose and the thermal stability as well as the effect of UV-illumination have been studied. The obtained number of free radicals per 100 eV (G-values) were 0.4 ± 0.13, 1.02 ± 0.31, 1.35 ± 0.35 and 0.78 ± 0 for Li-Ac.2H 2 O, Li-phosphate, Mg(Li)-lactate, and Li(Mg)-lactate, respectively. The lifetimes were estimated from Arrhenius plots to be approximately 2.0 ± 0.6, 50.7 ± 20 and 10 ± 3.5 years for Li-phosphate, Mg(Li)-lactate and Li(Mg)-lactate, respectively. The lifetime for Li-Ac·2H 2 O cannot be estimated because of the decomposition by heating

  17. The global aerosol-climate model ECHAM-HAM, version 2: sensitivity to improvements in process representations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Zhang

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper introduces and evaluates the second version of the global aerosol-climate model ECHAM-HAM. Major changes have been brought into the model, including new parameterizations for aerosol nucleation and water uptake, an explicit treatment of secondary organic aerosols, modified emission calculations for sea salt and mineral dust, the coupling of aerosol microphysics to a two-moment stratiform cloud microphysics scheme, and alternative wet scavenging parameterizations. These revisions extend the model's capability to represent details of the aerosol lifecycle and its interaction with climate. Nudged simulations of the year 2000 are carried out to compare the aerosol properties and global distribution in HAM1 and HAM2, and to evaluate them against various observations. Sensitivity experiments are performed to help identify the impact of each individual update in model formulation.

    Results indicate that from HAM1 to HAM2 there is a marked weakening of aerosol water uptake in the lower troposphere, reducing the total aerosol water burden from 75 Tg to 51 Tg. The main reason is the newly introduced κ-Köhler-theory-based water uptake scheme uses a lower value for the maximum relative humidity cutoff. Particulate organic matter loading in HAM2 is considerably higher in the upper troposphere, because the explicit treatment of secondary organic aerosols allows highly volatile oxidation products of the precursors to be vertically transported to regions of very low temperature and to form aerosols there. Sulfate, black carbon, particulate organic matter and mineral dust in HAM2 have longer lifetimes than in HAM1 because of weaker in-cloud scavenging, which is in turn related to lower autoconversion efficiency in the newly introduced two-moment cloud microphysics scheme. Modification in the sea salt emission scheme causes a significant increase in the ratio (from 1.6 to 7.7 between accumulation mode and coarse mode emission fluxes of

  18. Crop productivity changes in 1.5 °C and 2 °C worlds under climate sensitivity uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Deryng, Delphine; Müller, Christoph; Elliott, Joshua; Saeed, Fahad; Folberth, Christian; Liu, Wenfeng; Wang, Xuhui; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Thiery, Wim; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Rogelj, Joeri

    2018-06-01

    Following the adoption of the Paris Agreement, there has been an increasing interest in quantifying impacts at discrete levels of global mean temperature (GMT) increase such as 1.5 °C and 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. Consequences of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions on agricultural productivity have direct and immediate relevance for human societies. Future crop yields will be affected by anthropogenic climate change as well as direct effects of emissions such as CO2 fertilization. At the same time, the climate sensitivity to future emissions is uncertain. Here we investigate the sensitivity of future crop yield projections with a set of global gridded crop models for four major staple crops at 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming above pre-industrial levels, as well as at different CO2 levels determined by similar probabilities to lead to 1.5 °C and 2 °C, using climate forcing data from the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts project. For the same CO2 forcing, we find consistent negative effects of half a degree warming on productivity in most world regions. Increasing CO2 concentrations consistent with these warming levels have potentially stronger but highly uncertain effects than 0.5 °C warming increments. Half a degree warming will also lead to more extreme low yields, in particular over tropical regions. Our results indicate that GMT change alone is insufficient to determine future impacts on crop productivity.

  19. Observations of Local Positive Low Cloud Feedback Patterns and Their Role in Internal Variability and Climate Sensitivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Tianle; Oreopoulos, Lazaros; Platnick, Steven E.; Meyer, Kerry

    2018-05-01

    Modeling studies have shown that cloud feedbacks are sensitive to the spatial pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, while cloud feedbacks themselves strongly influence the magnitude of SST anomalies. Observational counterparts to such patterned interactions are still needed. Here we show that distinct large-scale patterns of SST and low-cloud cover (LCC) emerge naturally from objective analyses of observations and demonstrate their close coupling in a positive local SST-LCC feedback loop that may be important for both internal variability and climate change. The two patterns that explain the maximum amount of covariance between SST and LCC correspond to the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, leading modes of multidecadal internal variability. Spatial patterns and time series of SST and LCC anomalies associated with both modes point to a strong positive local SST-LCC feedback. In many current climate models, our analyses suggest that SST-LCC feedback strength is too weak compared to observations. Modeled local SST-LCC feedback strength affects simulated internal variability so that stronger feedback produces more intense and more realistic patterns of internal variability. To the extent that the physics of the local positive SST-LCC feedback inferred from observed climate variability applies to future greenhouse warming, we anticipate significant amount of delayed warming because of SST-LCC feedback when anthropogenic SST warming eventually overwhelm the effects of internal variability that may mute anthropogenic warming over parts of the ocean. We postulate that many climate models may be underestimating both future warming and the magnitude of modeled internal variability because of their weak SST-LCC feedback.

  20. Assessing the sensitivity of the North Atlantic Ocean circulation to freshwater perturbation in various glacial climate states

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meerbeeck, Cedric J. van; Renssen, Hans [VU University Amsterdam, Section Climate Change and Landscape Dynamics, Department of Earth Sciences, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Roche, Didier M. [VU University Amsterdam, Section Climate Change and Landscape Dynamics, Department of Earth Sciences, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Laboratoire CEA/INSU-CNRS/UVSQ, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l' Environnement (LSCE/IPSL), Gif sur Yvette (France)

    2011-11-15

    A striking characteristic of glacial climate in the North Atlantic region is the recurrence of abrupt shifts between cold stadials and mild interstadials. These shifts have been associated with abrupt changes in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) mode, possibly in response to glacial meltwater perturbations. However, it is poorly understood why they were more clearly expressed during Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS3, {proportional_to}60-27 ka BP) than during Termination 1 (T1, {proportional_to}18-10 ka BP) and especially around the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, {proportional_to}23-19 ka BP). One clue may reside in varying climate forcings, making MIS3 and T1 generally milder than LGM. To investigate this idea, we evaluate in a climate model how ice sheet size, atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration and orbital insolation changes between 56 ka BP (=56k), 21k and 12.5k affect the glacial AMOC response to additional freshwater forcing. We have performed three ensemble simulations with the earth system model LOVECLIM using those forcings. We find that the AMOC mode in the mild glacial climate type (56k and 12.5k), with deep convection in the Labrador Sea and the Nordic Seas, is more sensitive to a constant 0.15 Sv freshwater forcing than in the cold type (21k), with deep convection mainly south of Greenland and Iceland. The initial AMOC weakening in response to freshwater forcing is larger in the mild type due to an early shutdown of Labrador Sea deep convection, which is completely absent in the 21k simulation. This causes a larger fraction of the freshwater anomaly to remain at surface in the mild type compared to the cold type. After 200 years, a weak AMOC is established in both climate types, as further freshening is compensated by an anomalous salt advection from the (sub-)tropical North Atlantic. However, the slightly fresher sea surface in the mild type facilitates further weakening of the AMOC, which occurs when a surface buoyancy threshold (-0.6 kg

  1. Development of High Temperature/High Sensitivity Novel Chemical Resistive Sensor

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ma, Chunrui [Univ. of Texas, San Antonio, TX (United States); Enriquez, Erik [Univ. of Texas, San Antonio, TX (United States); Wang, Haibing [Univ. of Texas, San Antonio, TX (United States); Xu, Xing [Univ. of Texas, San Antonio, TX (United States); Bao, Shangyong [Univ. of Texas, San Antonio, TX (United States); Collins, Gregory [Univ. of Texas, San Antonio, TX (United States)

    2013-08-13

    The research has been focused to design, fabricate, and develop high temperature/high sensitivity novel multifunctional chemical sensors for the selective detection of fossil energy gases used in power and fuel systems. By systematically studying the physical properties of the LnBaCo2O5+d (LBCO) [Ln=Pr or La] thin-films, a new concept chemical sensor based high temperature chemical resistant change has been developed for the application for the next generation highly efficient and near zero emission power generation technologies. We also discovered that the superfast chemical dynamic behavior and an ultrafast surface exchange kinetics in the highly epitaxial LBCO thin films. Furthermore, our research indicates that hydrogen can superfast diffuse in the ordered oxygen vacancy structures in the highly epitaxial LBCO thin films, which suggest that the LBCO thin film not only can be an excellent candidate for the fabrication of high temperature ultra sensitive chemical sensors and control systems for power and fuel monitoring systems, but also can be an excellent candidate for the low temperature solid oxide fuel cell anode and cathode materials.

  2. An investigation of tropical Atlantic bias in a high-resolution coupled regional climate model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Patricola, Christina M.; Saravanan, R.; Hsieh, Jen-Shan [Texas A and M University, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, College Station, TX (United States); Li, Mingkui; Xu, Zhao [Texas A and M University, Department of Oceanography, College Station, TX (United States); Ocean University of China, Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography of Ministry of Education, Qingdao (China); Chang, Ping [Texas A and M University, Department of Oceanography, College Station, TX (United States); Ocean University of China, Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography of Ministry of Education, Qingdao (China); Second Institute of Oceanography, State Key Laboratory of Satellite Ocean Environment Dynamics, Hangzhou, Zhejiang (China)

    2012-11-15

    Coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) commonly fail to simulate the eastern equatorial Atlantic boreal summer cold tongue and produce a westerly equatorial trade wind bias. This tropical Atlantic bias problem is investigated with a high-resolution (27-km atmosphere represented by the Weather Research and Forecasting Model, 9-km ocean represented by the Regional Ocean Modeling System) coupled regional climate model. Uncoupled atmospheric simulations test climate sensitivity to cumulus, land-surface, planetary boundary layer, microphysics, and radiation parameterizations and reveal that the radiation scheme has a pronounced impact in the tropical Atlantic. The CAM radiation simulates a dry precipitation (up to -90%) and cold land-surface temperature (up to -8 K) bias over the Amazon related to an over-representation of low-level clouds and almost basin-wide westerly trade wind bias. The Rapid Radiative Transfer Model and Goddard radiation simulates doubled Amazon and Congo Basin precipitation rates and a weak eastern Atlantic trade wind bias. Season-long high-resolution coupled regional model experiments indicate that the initiation of the warm eastern equatorial Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) bias is more sensitive to the local rather than basin-wide trade wind bias and to a wet Congo Basin instead of dry Amazon - which differs from AOGCM simulations. Comparisons between coupled and uncoupled simulations suggest a regional Bjerknes feedback confined to the eastern equatorial Atlantic amplifies the initial SST, wind, and deepened thermocline bias, while barrier layer feedbacks are relatively unimportant. The SST bias in some CRCM simulations resembles the typical AOGCM bias indicating that increasing resolution is unlikely a simple solution to this problem. (orig.)

  3. Climate sensitivity of Mediterranean pine growth reveals distinct east-west dipole

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Seim, A.; Treydte, K.; Trouet, V.; Frank, D.; Fonti, P.; Tegel, W.; Panayotov, M.; Fernandez-Donado, L.; Krusic, P.; Büntgen, Ulf

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 35, č. 9 (2015), s. 2503-2513 ISSN 0899-8418 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) EE2.3.20.0248 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : tree-ring width * scots pine * wood formation * ice core * variability * drought * precipitation * reconstructions * circulation * dynamics * climate dynamics * dendroclimatology * drought response * Mediterranean east-west dipole * palaeoclimatology * Pinus spp * principal component analysis * tree-ring width Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 3.609, year: 2015

  4. Climate sensitivity estimated from temperature reconstructions of the Last Glacial Maximum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmittner, A.; Urban, N.; Shakun, J. D.; Mahowald, N. M.; Clark, P. U.; Bartlein, P. J.; Mix, A. C.; Rosell-Melé, A.

    2011-12-01

    In 1959 IJ Good published the discussion "Kinds of Probability" in Science. Good identified (at least) five kinds. The need for (at least) a sixth kind of probability when quantifying uncertainty in the context of climate science is discussed. This discussion brings out the differences in weather-like forecasting tasks and climate-links tasks, with a focus on the effective use both of science and of modelling in support of decision making. Good also introduced the idea of a "Dynamic probability" a probability one expects to change without any additional empirical evidence; the probabilities assigned by a chess playing program when it is only half thorough its analysis being an example. This case is contrasted with the case of "Mature probabilities" where a forecast algorithm (or model) has converged on its asymptotic probabilities and the question hinges in whether or not those probabilities are expected to change significantly before the event in question occurs, even in the absence of new empirical evidence. If so, then how might one report and deploy such immature probabilities in scientific-support of decision-making rationally? Mature Probability is suggested as a useful sixth kind, although Good would doubtlessly argue that we can get by with just one, effective communication with decision makers may be enhanced by speaking as if the others existed. This again highlights the distinction between weather-like contexts and climate-like contexts. In the former context one has access to a relevant climatology (a relevant, arguably informative distribution prior to any model simulations), in the latter context that information is not available although one can fall back on the scientific basis upon which the model itself rests, and estimate the probability that the model output is in fact misinformative. This subjective "probability of a big surprise" is one way to communicate the probability of model-based information holding in practice, the probability that the

  5. Potential for added value in precipitation simulated by high-resolution nested Regional Climate Models and observations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Di Luca, Alejandro; Laprise, Rene [Universite du Quebec a Montreal (UQAM), Centre ESCER (Etude et Simulation du Climat a l' Echelle Regionale), Departement des Sciences de la Terre et de l' Atmosphere, PK-6530, Succ. Centre-ville, B.P. 8888, Montreal, QC (Canada); De Elia, Ramon [Universite du Quebec a Montreal, Ouranos Consortium, Centre ESCER (Etude et Simulation du Climat a l' Echelle Regionale), Montreal (Canada)

    2012-03-15

    Regional Climate Models (RCMs) constitute the most often used method to perform affordable high-resolution regional climate simulations. The key issue in the evaluation of nested regional models is to determine whether RCM simulations improve the representation of climatic statistics compared to the driving data, that is, whether RCMs add value. In this study we examine a necessary condition that some climate statistics derived from the precipitation field must satisfy in order that the RCM technique can generate some added value: we focus on whether the climate statistics of interest contain some fine spatial-scale variability that would be absent on a coarser grid. The presence and magnitude of fine-scale precipitation variance required to adequately describe a given climate statistics will then be used to quantify the potential added value (PAV) of RCMs. Our results show that the PAV of RCMs is much higher for short temporal scales (e.g., 3-hourly data) than for long temporal scales (16-day average data) due to the filtering resulting from the time-averaging process. PAV is higher in warm season compared to cold season due to the higher proportion of precipitation falling from small-scale weather systems in the warm season. In regions of complex topography, the orographic forcing induces an extra component of PAV, no matter the season or the temporal scale considered. The PAV is also estimated using high-resolution datasets based on observations allowing the evaluation of the sensitivity of changing resolution in the real climate system. The results show that RCMs tend to reproduce relatively well the PAV compared to observations although showing an overestimation of the PAV in warm season and mountainous regions. (orig.)

  6. Multi-scale enhancement of climate prediction over land by increasing the model sensitivity to vegetation variability in EC-Earth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alessandri, Andrea; Catalano, Franco; De Felice, Matteo; Van Den Hurk, Bart; Doblas Reyes, Francisco; Boussetta, Souhail; Balsamo, Gianpaolo; Miller, Paul A.

    2017-08-01

    The EC-Earth earth system model has been recently developed to include the dynamics of vegetation. In its original formulation, vegetation variability is simply operated by the Leaf Area Index (LAI), which affects climate basically by changing the vegetation physiological resistance to evapotranspiration. This coupling has been found to have only a weak effect on the surface climate modeled by EC-Earth. In reality, the effective sub-grid vegetation fractional coverage will vary seasonally and at interannual time-scales in response to leaf-canopy growth, phenology and senescence. Therefore it affects biophysical parameters such as the albedo, surface roughness and soil field capacity. To adequately represent this effect in EC-Earth, we included an exponential dependence of the vegetation cover on the LAI. By comparing two sets of simulations performed with and without the new variable fractional-coverage parameterization, spanning from centennial (twentieth century) simulations and retrospective predictions to the decadal (5-years), seasonal and weather time-scales, we show for the first time a significant multi-scale enhancement of vegetation impacts in climate simulation and prediction over land. Particularly large effects at multiple time scales are shown over boreal winter middle-to-