A hierarchical nest survival model integrating incomplete temporally varying covariates
Converse, Sarah J.; Royle, J. Andrew; Adler, Peter H.; Urbanek, Richard P.; Barzan, Jeb A.
2013-01-01
Nest success is a critical determinant of the dynamics of avian populations, and nest survival modeling has played a key role in advancing avian ecology and management. Beginning with the development of daily nest survival models, and proceeding through subsequent extensions, the capacity for modeling the effects of hypothesized factors on nest survival has expanded greatly. We extend nest survival models further by introducing an approach to deal with incompletely observed, temporally varying covariates using a hierarchical model. Hierarchical modeling offers a way to separate process and observational components of demographic models to obtain estimates of the parameters of primary interest, and to evaluate structural effects of ecological and management interest. We built a hierarchical model for daily nest survival to analyze nest data from reintroduced whooping cranes (Grus americana) in the Eastern Migratory Population. This reintroduction effort has been beset by poor reproduction, apparently due primarily to nest abandonment by breeding birds. We used the model to assess support for the hypothesis that nest abandonment is caused by harassment from biting insects. We obtained indices of blood-feeding insect populations based on the spatially interpolated counts of insects captured in carbon dioxide traps. However, insect trapping was not conducted daily, and so we had incomplete information on a temporally variable covariate of interest. We therefore supplemented our nest survival model with a parallel model for estimating the values of the missing insect covariates. We used Bayesian model selection to identify the best predictors of daily nest survival. Our results suggest that the black fly Simulium annulus may be negatively affecting nest survival of reintroduced whooping cranes, with decreasing nest survival as abundance of S. annulus increases. The modeling framework we have developed will be applied in the future to a larger data set to evaluate the
Modeling age and nest-specific survival using a hierarchical Bayesian approach.
Cao, Jing; He, Chong Z; Suedkamp Wells, Kimberly M; Millspaugh, Joshua J; Ryan, Mark R
2009-12-01
Recent studies have shown that grassland birds are declining more rapidly than any other group of terrestrial birds. Current methods of estimating avian age-specific nest survival rates require knowing the ages of nests, assuming homogeneous nests in terms of nest survival rates, or treating the hazard function as a piecewise step function. In this article, we propose a Bayesian hierarchical model with nest-specific covariates to estimate age-specific daily survival probabilities without the above requirements. The model provides a smooth estimate of the nest survival curve and identifies the factors that are related to the nest survival. The model can handle irregular visiting schedules and it has the least restrictive assumptions compared to existing methods. Without assuming proportional hazards, we use a multinomial semiparametric logit model to specify a direct relation between age-specific nest failure probability and nest-specific covariates. An intrinsic autoregressive prior is employed for the nest age effect. This nonparametric prior provides a more flexible alternative to the parametric assumptions. The Bayesian computation is efficient because the full conditional posterior distributions either have closed forms or are log concave. We use the method to analyze a Missouri dickcissel dataset and find that (1) nest survival is not homogeneous during the nesting period, and it reaches its lowest at the transition from incubation to nestling; and (2) nest survival is related to grass cover and vegetation height in the study area.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Kuate-Defo, Bathélémy
2001-01-01
Full Text Available EnglishThis paper merges two parallel developments since the 1970s of newstatistical tools for data analysis: statistical methods known as hazard models that are used foranalyzing event-duration data and statistical methods for analyzing hierarchically clustered dataknown as multilevel models. These developments have rarely been integrated in research practice andthe formalization and estimation of models for hierarchically clustered survival data remain largelyuncharted. I attempt to fill some of this gap and demonstrate the merits of formulating and estimatingmultilevel hazard models with longitudinal data.FrenchCette étude intègre deux approches statistiques de pointe d'analyse des donnéesquantitatives depuis les années 70: les méthodes statistiques d'analyse desdonnées biographiques ou méthodes de survie et les méthodes statistiquesd'analyse des données hiérarchiques ou méthodes multi-niveaux. Ces deuxapproches ont été très peu mis en symbiose dans la pratique de recherche et parconséquent, la formulation et l'estimation des modèles appropriés aux donnéeslongitudinales et hiérarchiquement nichées demeure essentiellement un champd'investigation vierge. J'essaye de combler ce vide et j'utilise des données réellesen santé publique pour démontrer les mérites et contextes de formulation etd'estimation des modèles multi-niveaux et multi-états des données biographiqueset longitudinales.
Hierarchical species distribution models
Hefley, Trevor J.; Hooten, Mevin B.
2016-01-01
Determining the distribution pattern of a species is important to increase scientific knowledge, inform management decisions, and conserve biodiversity. To infer spatial and temporal patterns, species distribution models have been developed for use with many sampling designs and types of data. Recently, it has been shown that count, presence-absence, and presence-only data can be conceptualized as arising from a point process distribution. Therefore, it is important to understand properties of the point process distribution. We examine how the hierarchical species distribution modeling framework has been used to incorporate a wide array of regression and theory-based components while accounting for the data collection process and making use of auxiliary information. The hierarchical modeling framework allows us to demonstrate how several commonly used species distribution models can be derived from the point process distribution, highlight areas of potential overlap between different models, and suggest areas where further research is needed.
Hierarchical models and functional traits
van Loon, E.E.; Shamoun-Baranes, J.; Sierdsema, H.; Bouten, W.; Cramer, W.; Badeck, F.; Krukenberg, B.; Klotz, S.; Kühn, I.; Schweiger, O.; Böhning-Gaese, K.; Schaefer, H.-C.; Kissling, D.; Brandl, R.; Brändle, M.; Fricke, R.; Leuschner, C.; Buschmann, H.; Köckermann, B.; Rose, L.
2006-01-01
Hierarchical models for animal abundance prediction are conceptually elegant. They are generally more parsimonous than non-hierarchical models derived from the same data, give relatively robust predictions and automatically provide consistent output at multiple (spatio-temporal) scales. Another
Amiri, Zohreh; Mohammad, Kazem; Mahmoudi, Mahmood; Parsaeian, Mahbubeh; Zeraati, Hojjat
2013-01-01
There are numerous unanswered questions in the application of artificial neural network models for analysis of survival data. In most studies, independent variables have been studied as qualitative dichotomous variables, and results of using discrete and continuous quantitative, ordinal, or multinomial categorical predictive variables in these models are not well understood in comparison to conventional models. This study was designed and conducted to examine the application of these models in order to determine the survival of gastric cancer patients, in comparison to the Cox proportional hazards model. We studied the postoperative survival of 330 gastric cancer patients who suffered surgery at a surgical unit of the Iran Cancer Institute over a five-year period. Covariates of age, gender, history of substance abuse, cancer site, type of pathology, presence of metastasis, stage, and number of complementary treatments were entered in the models, and survival probabilities were calculated at 6, 12, 18, 24, 36, 48, and 60 months using the Cox proportional hazards and neural network models. We estimated coefficients of the Cox model and the weights in the neural network (with 3, 5, and 7 nodes in the hidden layer) in the training group, and used them to derive predictions in the study group. Predictions with these two methods were compared with those of the Kaplan-Meier product limit estimator as the gold standard. Comparisons were performed with the Friedman and Kruskal-Wallis tests. Survival probabilities at different times were determined using the Cox proportional hazards and a neural network with three nodes in the hidden layer; the ratios of standard errors with these two methods to the Kaplan-Meier method were 1.1593 and 1.0071, respectively, revealed a significant difference between Cox and Kaplan-Meier (P neural network, and the neural network and the standard (Kaplan-Meier), as well as better accuracy for the neural network (with 3 nodes in the hidden layer
Morita, Satoshi; Thall, Peter F.; Bekele, B. Nebiyou; Mathew, Paul
2010-01-01
SUMMARY Advances in understanding the biological underpinnings of many cancers have led increasingly to the use of molecularly targeted anti-cancer therapies. Because the platelet-derived growth factor receptor (PDGFR) has been implicated in the progression of prostate cancer bone metastases, it is of great interest to examine possible relationships between PDGFR inhibition and therapeutic outcomes. Here, we analyze the association between change in activated PDGFR (p-PDGFR) and progression free survival (PFS) time based on large within-patient samples of cell-specific p-PDGFR values taken before and after treatment from each of 88 prostate cancer patients. To utilize these paired samples as covariate data in a regression model for PFS time, and because the p-PDGFR distributions are bimodal, we first employ a Bayesian hierarchical mixture model to obtain a deconvolution of the pre-treatment and post-treatment within-patient p-PDGFR distributions. We evaluate fits of the mixture model and a non-mixture model that ignores the bimodality by using a supnorm metric to compare the empirical distribution of each p-PDGFR data set with the corresponding fitted distribution under each model. Our results show that first using the mixture model to account for the bimodality of the within-patient p-PDGFR distributions, and then using the posterior within-patient component mean changes in p-PDGFR so obtained as covariates in the regression model for PFS time provides an improved estimation. PMID:20390057
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Ashauer, Roman; Albert, Carlo; Augustine, Starrlight
2016-01-01
well GUTS, calibrated with short-term survival data of Gammarus pulex exposed to four pesticides, can forecast effects of longer-term pulsed exposures. Thirdly, we tested the ability of GUTS to estimate 14-day median effect concentrations of malathion for a range of species and use these estimates...
Multicollinearity in hierarchical linear models.
Yu, Han; Jiang, Shanhe; Land, Kenneth C
2015-09-01
This study investigates an ill-posed problem (multicollinearity) in Hierarchical Linear Models from both the data and the model perspectives. We propose an intuitive, effective approach to diagnosing the presence of multicollinearity and its remedies in this class of models. A simulation study demonstrates the impacts of multicollinearity on coefficient estimates, associated standard errors, and variance components at various levels of multicollinearity for finite sample sizes typical in social science studies. We further investigate the role multicollinearity plays at each level for estimation of coefficient parameters in terms of shrinkage. Based on these analyses, we recommend a top-down method for assessing multicollinearity in HLMs that first examines the contextual predictors (Level-2 in a two-level model) and then the individual predictors (Level-1) and uses the results for data collection, research problem redefinition, model re-specification, variable selection and estimation of a final model. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Classification using Hierarchical Naive Bayes models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Langseth, Helge; Dyhre Nielsen, Thomas
2006-01-01
Classification problems have a long history in the machine learning literature. One of the simplest, and yet most consistently well-performing set of classifiers is the Naïve Bayes models. However, an inherent problem with these classifiers is the assumption that all attributes used to describe......, termed Hierarchical Naïve Bayes models. Hierarchical Naïve Bayes models extend the modeling flexibility of Naïve Bayes models by introducing latent variables to relax some of the independence statements in these models. We propose a simple algorithm for learning Hierarchical Naïve Bayes models...
HIERARCHICAL OPTIMIZATION MODEL ON GEONETWORK
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Z. Zha
2012-07-01
Full Text Available In existing construction experience of Spatial Data Infrastructure (SDI, GeoNetwork, as the geographical information integrated solution, is an effective way of building SDI. During GeoNetwork serving as an internet application, several shortcomings are exposed. The first one is that the time consuming of data loading has been considerately increasing with the growth of metadata count. Consequently, the efficiency of query and search service becomes lower. Another problem is that stability and robustness are both ruined since huge amount of metadata. The final flaw is that the requirements of multi-user concurrent accessing based on massive data are not effectively satisfied on the internet. A novel approach, Hierarchical Optimization Model (HOM, is presented to solve the incapability of GeoNetwork working with massive data in this paper. HOM optimizes the GeoNetwork from these aspects: internal procedure, external deployment strategies, etc. This model builds an efficient index for accessing huge metadata and supporting concurrent processes. In this way, the services based on GeoNetwork can maintain stable while running massive metadata. As an experiment, we deployed more than 30 GeoNetwork nodes, and harvest nearly 1.1 million metadata. From the contrast between the HOM-improved software and the original one, the model makes indexing and retrieval processes more quickly and keeps the speed stable on metadata amount increasing. It also shows stable on multi-user concurrent accessing to system services, the experiment achieved good results and proved that our optimization model is efficient and reliable.
Hierarchical modeling and analysis for spatial data
Banerjee, Sudipto; Gelfand, Alan E
2003-01-01
Among the many uses of hierarchical modeling, their application to the statistical analysis of spatial and spatio-temporal data from areas such as epidemiology And environmental science has proven particularly fruitful. Yet to date, the few books that address the subject have been either too narrowly focused on specific aspects of spatial analysis, or written at a level often inaccessible to those lacking a strong background in mathematical statistics.Hierarchical Modeling and Analysis for Spatial Data is the first accessible, self-contained treatment of hierarchical methods, modeling, and dat
Hierarchical Model of Container Ports Throughput
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Monika Rozmarynowska
2015-12-01
Full Text Available In this article the attempt has been made to construct hierarchical model of container ports throughput development. The presented hierarchical approach uses the relationships of development of global economy and container flows at different geographical levels: global (container throughput in all seaport on the world, regional (container throughput in the Baltic seaports and national (container throughput in Polish seaports. Model have been evaluated for their fit and usefulness for predictive purposes.
Hierarchical models in the brain.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Karl Friston
2008-11-01
Full Text Available This paper describes a general model that subsumes many parametric models for continuous data. The model comprises hidden layers of state-space or dynamic causal models, arranged so that the output of one provides input to another. The ensuing hierarchy furnishes a model for many types of data, of arbitrary complexity. Special cases range from the general linear model for static data to generalised convolution models, with system noise, for nonlinear time-series analysis. Crucially, all of these models can be inverted using exactly the same scheme, namely, dynamic expectation maximization. This means that a single model and optimisation scheme can be used to invert a wide range of models. We present the model and a brief review of its inversion to disclose the relationships among, apparently, diverse generative models of empirical data. We then show that this inversion can be formulated as a simple neural network and may provide a useful metaphor for inference and learning in the brain.
A neural model of hierarchical reinforcement learning.
Rasmussen, Daniel; Voelker, Aaron; Eliasmith, Chris
2017-01-01
We develop a novel, biologically detailed neural model of reinforcement learning (RL) processes in the brain. This model incorporates a broad range of biological features that pose challenges to neural RL, such as temporally extended action sequences, continuous environments involving unknown time delays, and noisy/imprecise computations. Most significantly, we expand the model into the realm of hierarchical reinforcement learning (HRL), which divides the RL process into a hierarchy of actions at different levels of abstraction. Here we implement all the major components of HRL in a neural model that captures a variety of known anatomical and physiological properties of the brain. We demonstrate the performance of the model in a range of different environments, in order to emphasize the aim of understanding the brain's general reinforcement learning ability. These results show that the model compares well to previous modelling work and demonstrates improved performance as a result of its hierarchical ability. We also show that the model's behaviour is consistent with available data on human hierarchical RL, and generate several novel predictions.
AN INTEGER PROGRAMMING MODEL FOR HIERARCHICAL WORKFORCE
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
BANU SUNGUR
2013-06-01
Full Text Available The model presented in this paper is based on the model developed by Billionnet for the hierarchical workforce problem. In Billionnet’s Model, while determining the workers’ weekly costs, weekly working hours of workers are not taken into consideration. In our model, the weekly costs per worker are reduced in proportion to the working hours per week. Our model is illustrated on the Billionnet’s Example. The models in question are compared and evaluated on the basis of the results obtained from the example problem. A reduction is achieved in the total cost by the proposed model.
Flexible survival regression modelling
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Cortese, Giuliana; Scheike, Thomas H; Martinussen, Torben
2009-01-01
Regression analysis of survival data, and more generally event history data, is typically based on Cox's regression model. We here review some recent methodology, focusing on the limitations of Cox's regression model. The key limitation is that the model is not well suited to represent time-varyi...
Internet advertising effectiveness by using hierarchical model
Rahmani, Samaneh
2015-01-01
Abstract. Present paper has been developed with the title of internet advertising effectiveness by using hierarchical model. Presenting the question: Today Internet is an important channel in marketing and advertising. The reason for this could be the ability of the Internet to reduce costs and people’s access to online services[1]. Also advertisers can easily access a multitude of users and communicate with them at low cost [9]. On the other hand, compared to traditional advertising, interne...
The traveling salesman problem: a hierarchical model.
Graham, S M; Joshi, A; Pizlo, Z
2000-10-01
Our review of prior literature on spatial information processing in perception, attention, and memory indicates that these cognitive functions involve similar mechanisms based on a hierarchical architecture. The present study extends the application of hierarchical models to the area of problem solving. First, we report results of an experiment in which human subjects were tested on a Euclidean traveling salesman problem (TSP) with 6 to 30 cities. The subject's solutions were either optimal or near-optimal in length and were produced in a time that was, on average, a linear function of the number of cities. Next, the performance of the subjects is compared with that of five representative artificial intelligence and operations research algorithms, that produce approximate solutions for Euclidean problems. None of these algorithms was found to be an adequate psychological model. Finally, we present a new algorithm for solving the TSP, which is based on a hierarchical pyramid architecture. The performance of this new algorithm is quite similar to the performance of the subjects.
Modelling complex networks by random hierarchical graphs
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
M.Wróbel
2008-06-01
Full Text Available Numerous complex networks contain special patterns, called network motifs. These are specific subgraphs, which occur oftener than in randomized networks of Erdős-Rényi type. We choose one of them, the triangle, and build a family of random hierarchical graphs, being Sierpiński gasket-based graphs with random "decorations". We calculate the important characteristics of these graphs - average degree, average shortest path length, small-world graph family characteristics. They depend on probability of decorations. We analyze the Ising model on our graphs and describe its critical properties using a renormalization-group technique.
Entrepreneurial intention modeling using hierarchical multiple regression
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Marina Jeger
2014-12-01
Full Text Available The goal of this study is to identify the contribution of effectuation dimensions to the predictive power of the entrepreneurial intention model over and above that which can be accounted for by other predictors selected and confirmed in previous studies. As is often the case in social and behavioral studies, some variables are likely to be highly correlated with each other. Therefore, the relative amount of variance in the criterion variable explained by each of the predictors depends on several factors such as the order of variable entry and sample specifics. The results show the modest predictive power of two dimensions of effectuation prior to the introduction of the theory of planned behavior elements. The article highlights the main advantages of applying hierarchical regression in social sciences as well as in the specific context of entrepreneurial intention formation, and addresses some of the potential pitfalls that this type of analysis entails.
Hierarchical Data Structures, Institutional Research, and Multilevel Modeling
O'Connell, Ann A.; Reed, Sandra J.
2012-01-01
Multilevel modeling (MLM), also referred to as hierarchical linear modeling (HLM) or mixed models, provides a powerful analytical framework through which to study colleges and universities and their impact on students. Due to the natural hierarchical structure of data obtained from students or faculty in colleges and universities, MLM offers many…
Nonlinear hierarchical modeling of experimental infection data.
Singleton, Michael D; Breheny, Patrick J
2016-08-01
In this paper, we propose a nonlinear hierarchical model (NLHM) for analyzing longitudinal experimental infection (EI) data. The NLHM offers several improvements over commonly used alternatives such as repeated measures analysis of variance (RM-ANOVA) and the linear mixed model (LMM). It enables comparison of relevant biological properties of the course of infection including peak intensity, duration and time to peak, rather than simply comparing mean responses at each observation time. We illustrate the practical benefits of this model and the insights it yields using data from experimental infection studies on equine arteritis virus. Finally, we demonstrate via simulation studies that the NLHM substantially reduces bias and improves the power to detect differences in relevant features of the infection response between two populations. For example, to detect a 20% difference in response duration between two groups (n=15) in which the peak time and peak intensity were identical, the RM-ANOVA test had a power of just 11%, and LMM a power of just 12%. By comparison, the nonlinear model we propose had a power of 58% in the same scenario, while controlling the Type I error rate better than the other two methods. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Modeling abundance using hierarchical distance sampling
Royle, Andy; Kery, Marc
2016-01-01
In this chapter, we provide an introduction to classical distance sampling ideas for point and line transect data, and for continuous and binned distance data. We introduce the conditional and the full likelihood, and we discuss Bayesian analysis of these models in BUGS using the idea of data augmentation, which we discussed in Chapter 7. We then extend the basic ideas to the problem of hierarchical distance sampling (HDS), where we have multiple point or transect sample units in space (or possibly in time). The benefit of HDS in practice is that it allows us to directly model spatial variation in population size among these sample units. This is a preeminent concern of most field studies that use distance sampling methods, but it is not a problem that has received much attention in the literature. We show how to analyze HDS models in both the unmarked package and in the BUGS language for point and line transects, and for continuous and binned distance data. We provide a case study of HDS applied to a survey of the island scrub-jay on Santa Cruz Island, California.
A hierarchical stochastic model for bistable perception.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Stefan Albert
2017-11-01
Full Text Available Viewing of ambiguous stimuli can lead to bistable perception alternating between the possible percepts. During continuous presentation of ambiguous stimuli, percept changes occur as single events, whereas during intermittent presentation of ambiguous stimuli, percept changes occur at more or less regular intervals either as single events or bursts. Response patterns can be highly variable and have been reported to show systematic differences between patients with schizophrenia and healthy controls. Existing models of bistable perception often use detailed assumptions and large parameter sets which make parameter estimation challenging. Here we propose a parsimonious stochastic model that provides a link between empirical data analysis of the observed response patterns and detailed models of underlying neuronal processes. Firstly, we use a Hidden Markov Model (HMM for the times between percept changes, which assumes one single state in continuous presentation and a stable and an unstable state in intermittent presentation. The HMM captures the observed differences between patients with schizophrenia and healthy controls, but remains descriptive. Therefore, we secondly propose a hierarchical Brownian model (HBM, which produces similar response patterns but also provides a relation to potential underlying mechanisms. The main idea is that neuronal activity is described as an activity difference between two competing neuronal populations reflected in Brownian motions with drift. This differential activity generates switching between the two conflicting percepts and between stable and unstable states with similar mechanisms on different neuronal levels. With only a small number of parameters, the HBM can be fitted closely to a high variety of response patterns and captures group differences between healthy controls and patients with schizophrenia. At the same time, it provides a link to mechanistic models of bistable perception, linking the group
Survival analysis models and applications
Liu, Xian
2012-01-01
Survival analysis concerns sequential occurrences of events governed by probabilistic laws. Recent decades have witnessed many applications of survival analysis in various disciplines. This book introduces both classic survival models and theories along with newly developed techniques. Readers will learn how to perform analysis of survival data by following numerous empirical illustrations in SAS. Survival Analysis: Models and Applications: Presents basic techniques before leading onto some of the most advanced topics in survival analysis.Assumes only a minimal knowledge of SAS whilst enablin
Modelling modal gating of ion channels with hierarchical Markov models.
Siekmann, Ivo; Fackrell, Mark; Crampin, Edmund J; Taylor, Peter
2016-08-01
Many ion channels spontaneously switch between different levels of activity. Although this behaviour known as modal gating has been observed for a long time it is currently not well understood. Despite the fact that appropriately representing activity changes is essential for accurately capturing time course data from ion channels, systematic approaches for modelling modal gating are currently not available. In this paper, we develop a modular approach for building such a model in an iterative process. First, stochastic switching between modes and stochastic opening and closing within modes are represented in separate aggregated Markov models. Second, the continuous-time hierarchical Markov model, a new modelling framework proposed here, then enables us to combine these components so that in the integrated model both mode switching as well as the kinetics within modes are appropriately represented. A mathematical analysis reveals that the behaviour of the hierarchical Markov model naturally depends on the properties of its components. We also demonstrate how a hierarchical Markov model can be parametrized using experimental data and show that it provides a better representation than a previous model of the same dataset. Because evidence is increasing that modal gating reflects underlying molecular properties of the channel protein, it is likely that biophysical processes are better captured by our new approach than in earlier models.
Classifying hospitals as mortality outliers: logistic versus hierarchical logistic models.
Alexandrescu, Roxana; Bottle, Alex; Jarman, Brian; Aylin, Paul
2014-05-01
The use of hierarchical logistic regression for provider profiling has been recommended due to the clustering of patients within hospitals, but has some associated difficulties. We assess changes in hospital outlier status based on standard logistic versus hierarchical logistic modelling of mortality. The study population consisted of all patients admitted to acute, non-specialist hospitals in England between 2007 and 2011 with a primary diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction, acute cerebrovascular disease or fracture of neck of femur or a primary procedure of coronary artery bypass graft or repair of abdominal aortic aneurysm. We compared standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) from non-hierarchical models with SMRs from hierarchical models, without and with shrinkage estimates of the predicted probabilities (Model 1 and Model 2). The SMRs from standard logistic and hierarchical models were highly statistically significantly correlated (r > 0.91, p = 0.01). More outliers were recorded in the standard logistic regression than hierarchical modelling only when using shrinkage estimates (Model 2): 21 hospitals (out of a cumulative number of 565 pairs of hospitals under study) changed from a low outlier and 8 hospitals changed from a high outlier based on the logistic regression to a not-an-outlier based on shrinkage estimates. Both standard logistic and hierarchical modelling have identified nearly the same hospitals as mortality outliers. The choice of methodological approach should, however, also consider whether the modelling aim is judgment or improvement, as shrinkage may be more appropriate for the former than the latter.
Non-perturbative Methods For Hierarchical Models
Oktay, M B
2001-01-01
The goal of this thesis is to provide a practical method to calculate, in scalar field theory, accurate numerical values of the renormalized quantities which could be used to test any kind of approximate calculation. We use finite truncations of the Fourier transform of the recursion formula for Dyson's hierarchical model in the symmetric and broken phases to perform high precision calculations of the Green's functions at zero momentum. We use the well-known correspondence between statistical mechanics and field theory in which the large cut-off limit is obtained by letting β reach a critical value βc. We show that the round-off errors on the magnetic susceptibility grow like (βc − β) −1 near criticality. We show that the systematic errors (finite truncation and volume) can be controlled with an exponential precision and reduced to a level lower than numerical errors. We probe the numerical errors made in Renormalization Group (RG) calculations by varyin...
Higher-Order Item Response Models for Hierarchical Latent Traits
Huang, Hung-Yu; Wang, Wen-Chung; Chen, Po-Hsi; Su, Chi-Ming
2013-01-01
Many latent traits in the human sciences have a hierarchical structure. This study aimed to develop a new class of higher order item response theory models for hierarchical latent traits that are flexible in accommodating both dichotomous and polytomous items, to estimate both item and person parameters jointly, to allow users to specify…
Data analysis using regression and multilevel/hierarchical models
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Gelman, Andrew; Hill, Jennifer
2007-01-01
"Data Analysis Using Regression and Multilevel/Hierarchical Models is a comprehensive manual for the applied researcher who wants to perform data analysis using linear and nonlinear regression and multilevel models...
Hierarchical microcrack model for materials exemplified at enamel.
Özcoban, H; Yilmaz, E D; Schneider, G A
2018-01-01
This article investigates the mechanical properties of a material with hierarchically arranged microcracks. Hierarchically structured biomaterials such as enamel exhibit superior mechanical properties as being stiff and damage tolerant at the same time. The common mechanical explanation for this behavior is based on the hierarchically structured arrangement of hard minerals and soft organics and their cooperative deformation mechanisms. In situ mechanical experiments with mm-sized bovine enamel bending bars an scanning electron microscope reveal that enamel is able to withstand mechanical loading even if it contains microcracks on different lengths scales. To clarify this issue an analytical hierarchical microcrack model of non-interacting cracks is presented. The model predicts a decrease of the elastic modulus and the fracture strength with increasing levels of hierarchy. The fracture strain on the other hand may decrease or increase with the number of hierarchical levels, depending on the microcrack density. This simple hierarchical microcrack model is able to explain already published experiments with focused ion beam prepared μm-sized enamel cantilevers on different hierarchical levels. In addition it is shown that microcracking during loading in hierarchical materials may lead to substantial pseudoplastic behavior. Copyright © 2017 The Academy of Dental Materials. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Hierarchical Neural Regression Models for Customer Churn Prediction
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Golshan Mohammadi
2013-01-01
Full Text Available As customers are the main assets of each industry, customer churn prediction is becoming a major task for companies to remain in competition with competitors. In the literature, the better applicability and efficiency of hierarchical data mining techniques has been reported. This paper considers three hierarchical models by combining four different data mining techniques for churn prediction, which are backpropagation artificial neural networks (ANN, self-organizing maps (SOM, alpha-cut fuzzy c-means (α-FCM, and Cox proportional hazards regression model. The hierarchical models are ANN + ANN + Cox, SOM + ANN + Cox, and α-FCM + ANN + Cox. In particular, the first component of the models aims to cluster data in two churner and nonchurner groups and also filter out unrepresentative data or outliers. Then, the clustered data as the outputs are used to assign customers to churner and nonchurner groups by the second technique. Finally, the correctly classified data are used to create Cox proportional hazards model. To evaluate the performance of the hierarchical models, an Iranian mobile dataset is considered. The experimental results show that the hierarchical models outperform the single Cox regression baseline model in terms of prediction accuracy, Types I and II errors, RMSE, and MAD metrics. In addition, the α-FCM + ANN + Cox model significantly performs better than the two other hierarchical models.
Towards a hierarchical optimization modeling framework for ...
Background:Bilevel optimization has been recognized as a 2-player Stackelberg game where players are represented as leaders and followers and each pursue their own set of objectives. Hierarchical optimization problems, which are a generalization of bilevel, are especially difficult because the optimization is nested, meaning that the objectives of one level depend on solutions to the other levels. We introduce a hierarchical optimization framework for spatially targeting multiobjective green infrastructure (GI) incentive policies under uncertainties related to policy budget, compliance, and GI effectiveness. We demonstrate the utility of the framework using a hypothetical urban watershed, where the levels are characterized by multiple levels of policy makers (e.g., local, regional, national) and policy followers (e.g., landowners, communities), and objectives include minimization of policy cost, implementation cost, and risk; reduction of combined sewer overflow (CSO) events; and improvement in environmental benefits such as reduced nutrient run-off and water availability. Conclusions: While computationally expensive, this hierarchical optimization framework explicitly simulates the interaction between multiple levels of policy makers (e.g., local, regional, national) and policy followers (e.g., landowners, communities) and is especially useful for constructing and evaluating environmental and ecological policy. Using the framework with a hypothetical urba
Hierarchical model analysis of the Atlantic Flyway Breeding Waterfowl Survey
Sauer, John R.; Zimmerman, Guthrie S.; Klimstra, Jon D.; Link, William A.
2014-01-01
We used log-linear hierarchical models to analyze data from the Atlantic Flyway Breeding Waterfowl Survey. The survey has been conducted by state biologists each year since 1989 in the northeastern United States from Virginia north to New Hampshire and Vermont. Although yearly population estimates from the survey are used by the United States Fish and Wildlife Service for estimating regional waterfowl population status for mallards (Anas platyrhynchos), black ducks (Anas rubripes), wood ducks (Aix sponsa), and Canada geese (Branta canadensis), they are not routinely adjusted to control for time of day effects and other survey design issues. The hierarchical model analysis permits estimation of year effects and population change while accommodating the repeated sampling of plots and controlling for time of day effects in counting. We compared population estimates from the current stratified random sample analysis to population estimates from hierarchical models with alternative model structures that describe year to year changes as random year effects, a trend with random year effects, or year effects modeled as 1-year differences. Patterns of population change from the hierarchical model results generally were similar to the patterns described by stratified random sample estimates, but significant visibility differences occurred between twilight to midday counts in all species. Controlling for the effects of time of day resulted in larger population estimates for all species in the hierarchical model analysis relative to the stratified random sample analysis. The hierarchical models also provided a convenient means of estimating population trend as derived statistics from the analysis. We detected significant declines in mallard and American black ducks and significant increases in wood ducks and Canada geese, a trend that had not been significant for 3 of these 4 species in the prior analysis. We recommend using hierarchical models for analysis of the Atlantic
2016-06-01
experiment mode also enables users to set their own design of experiment by manipulating an editable CSV file. The second one is a real-time mode that...renders a 3D virtual environment of a restricted battlefield where the survivability movements of an artillery company are visualized . This mode...provides detailed visualization of the simulation and enables future experimental uses of the simulation as a training tool. 14. SUBJECT TERMS
Item Analysis by the Hierarchical Generalized Linear Model.
Kamata, Akihito
2001-01-01
Presents the hierarchical generalized linear model (HGLM) as an explicit two-level formulation of a multilevel item response model. Shows that the HGLM is equivalent to the Rasch model, and that a characteristic of the HGLM is that person ability can be expressed as a latent regression model with person-characteristic variables. Shows that the…
Modelling survival and connectivity of
van der Molen, J.; van Beek, J.; Augustine, S.; Vansteenbrugge, L.; van Walraven, L.; van Langenberg, V.; van der Veer, H.W.; Hostens, K.; Pitois, S.; Robbens, J.
2015-01-01
Three different models were applied to study the reproduction, survival and dispersal of Mnemiopsis leidyi in the Scheldt estuaries and the southern North Sea: a high-resolution particle tracking model with passive particles, a low-resolution particle tracking model with a reproduction model
A hierarchical linear model for tree height prediction.
Vicente J. Monleon
2003-01-01
Measuring tree height is a time-consuming process. Often, tree diameter is measured and height is estimated from a published regression model. Trees used to develop these models are clustered into stands, but this structure is ignored and independence is assumed. In this study, hierarchical linear models that account explicitly for the clustered structure of the data...
Modelling hierarchical and modular complex networks: division and independence
Kim, D.-H.; Rodgers, G. J.; Kahng, B.; Kim, D.
2005-06-01
We introduce a growing network model which generates both modular and hierarchical structure in a self-organized way. To this end, we modify the Barabási-Albert model into the one evolving under the principles of division and independence as well as growth and preferential attachment (PA). A newly added vertex chooses one of the modules composed of existing vertices, and attaches edges to vertices belonging to that module following the PA rule. When the module size reaches a proper size, the module is divided into two, and a new module is created. The karate club network studied by Zachary is a simple version of the current model. We find that the model can reproduce both modular and hierarchical properties, characterized by the hierarchical clustering function of a vertex with degree k, C(k), being in good agreement with empirical measurements for real-world networks.
Frailty Models in Survival Analysis
Wienke, Andreas
2010-01-01
The concept of frailty offers a convenient way to introduce unobserved heterogeneity and associations into models for survival data. In its simplest form, frailty is an unobserved random proportionality factor that modifies the hazard function of an individual or a group of related individuals. "Frailty Models in Survival Analysis" presents a comprehensive overview of the fundamental approaches in the area of frailty models. The book extensively explores how univariate frailty models can represent unobserved heterogeneity. It also emphasizes correlated frailty models as extensions of
Model-based hierarchical reinforcement learning and human action control.
Botvinick, Matthew; Weinstein, Ari
2014-11-05
Recent work has reawakened interest in goal-directed or 'model-based' choice, where decisions are based on prospective evaluation of potential action outcomes. Concurrently, there has been growing attention to the role of hierarchy in decision-making and action control. We focus here on the intersection between these two areas of interest, considering the topic of hierarchical model-based control. To characterize this form of action control, we draw on the computational framework of hierarchical reinforcement learning, using this to interpret recent empirical findings. The resulting picture reveals how hierarchical model-based mechanisms might play a special and pivotal role in human decision-making, dramatically extending the scope and complexity of human behaviour.
Fraldi, M.; Perrella, G.; Ciervo, M.; Bosia, F.; Pugno, N. M.
2017-09-01
Very recently, a Weibull-based probabilistic strategy has been successfully applied to bundles of wires to determine their overall stress-strain behaviour, also capturing previously unpredicted nonlinear and post-elastic features of hierarchical strands. This approach is based on the so-called ;Equal Load Sharing (ELS); hypothesis by virtue of which, when a wire breaks, the load acting on the strand is homogeneously redistributed among the surviving wires. Despite the overall effectiveness of the method, some discrepancies between theoretical predictions and in silico Finite Element-based simulations or experimental findings might arise when more complex structures are analysed, e.g. helically arranged bundles. To overcome these limitations, an enhanced hybrid approach is proposed in which the probability of rupture is combined with a deterministic mechanical model of a strand constituted by helically-arranged and hierarchically-organized wires. The analytical model is validated comparing its predictions with both Finite Element simulations and experimental tests. The results show that generalized stress-strain responses - incorporating tension/torsion coupling - are naturally found and, once one or more elements break, the competition between geometry and mechanics of the strand microstructure, i.e. the different cross sections and helical angles of the wires in the different hierarchical levels of the strand, determines the no longer homogeneous stress redistribution among the surviving wires whose fate is hence governed by a ;Hierarchical Load Sharing; criterion.
Data Assimilation using an Ensemble of Models: A hierarchical approach
Rayner, Peter
2017-01-01
One characteristic of biogeochemical models is uncertainty about their formulation. Data assimilation should take this uncertainty into account. A common approach is to use an ensemble of models. We must assign probabilities not only to the parameters of the models but the models themselves. The method of hierarchical modelling allows us to calculate these probabilities. This paper describes the approach, develops the algebra for the most common case then applies it to the TRANSCO...
A Hierarchal Risk Assessment Model Using the Evidential Reasoning Rule
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Xiaoxiao Ji
2017-02-01
Full Text Available This paper aims to develop a hierarchical risk assessment model using the newly-developed evidential reasoning (ER rule, which constitutes a generic conjunctive probabilistic reasoning process. In this paper, we first provide a brief introduction to the basics of the ER rule and emphasize the strengths for representing and aggregating uncertain information from multiple experts and sources. Further, we discuss the key steps of developing the hierarchical risk assessment framework systematically, including (1 formulation of risk assessment hierarchy; (2 representation of both qualitative and quantitative information; (3 elicitation of attribute weights and information reliabilities; (4 aggregation of assessment information using the ER rule and (5 quantification and ranking of risks using utility-based transformation. The proposed hierarchical risk assessment framework can potentially be implemented to various complex and uncertain systems. A case study on the fire/explosion risk assessment of marine vessels demonstrates the applicability of the proposed risk assessment model.
MULTILEVEL RECURRENT MODEL FOR HIERARCHICAL CONTROL OF COMPLEX REGIONAL SECURITY
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Andrey V. Masloboev
2014-11-01
Full Text Available Subject of research. The research goal and scope are development of methods and software for mathematical and computer modeling of the regional security information support systems as multilevel hierarchical systems. Such systems are characterized by loosely formalization, multiple-aspect of descendent system processes and their interconnectivity, high level dynamics and uncertainty. The research methodology is based on functional-target approach and principles of multilevel hierarchical system theory. The work considers analysis and structural-algorithmic synthesis problem-solving of the multilevel computer-aided systems intended for management and decision-making information support in the field of regional security. Main results. A hierarchical control multilevel model of regional socio-economic system complex security has been developed. The model is based on functional-target approach and provides both formal statement and solving, and practical implementation of the automated information system structure and control algorithms synthesis problems of regional security management optimal in terms of specified criteria. An approach for intralevel and interlevel coordination problem-solving in the multilevel hierarchical systems has been proposed on the basis of model application. The coordination is provided at the expense of interconnection requirements satisfaction between the functioning quality indexes (objective functions, which are optimized by the different elements of multilevel systems. That gives the possibility for sufficient coherence reaching of the local decisions, being made on the different control levels, under decentralized decision-making and external environment high dynamics. Recurrent model application provides security control mathematical models formation of regional socioeconomic systems, functioning under uncertainty. Practical relevance. The model implementation makes it possible to automate synthesis realization of
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Robert William Rankin
2016-03-01
Full Text Available We present a Hierarchical Bayesian version of Pollock's Closed Robust Design for studying the survival, temporary-migration, and abundance of marked animals. Through simulations and analyses of a bottlenose dolphin photo-identification dataset, we compare several estimation frameworks, including Maximum Likelihood estimation (ML, model-averaging by AICc, as well as Bayesian and Hierarchical Bayesian (HB procedures. Our results demonstrate a number of advantages of the Bayesian framework over other popular methods. First, for simple fixed-effect models, we show the near-equivalence of Bayesian and ML point-estimates and confidence/credibility intervals. Second, we demonstrate how there is an inherent correlation among temporary-migration and survival parameter estimates in the PCRD, and while this can lead to serious convergence issues and singularities among MLEs, we show that the Bayesian estimates were more reliable. Third, we demonstrate that a Hierarchical Bayesian model with carefully thought-out hyperpriors, can lead to similar parameter estimates and conclusions as multi-model inference by AICc model-averaging. This latter point is especially interesting for mark-recapture practitioners, for whom model-uncertainty and multi-model inference have become a major preoccupation. Lastly, we extend the Hierarchical Bayesian PCRD to include full-capture histories (i.e., by modelling a recruitment process and individual-level heterogeneity in detection probabilities, which can have important consequences for the range of phenomena studied by the PCRD, as well as lead to large differences in abundance estimates. For example, we estimate 8%-24% more bottlenose dolphins in the western gulf of Shark Bay than previously estimated by ML and AICc-based model-averaging. Other important extensions are discussed. Our Bayesian PCRD models are written in the BUGS-like JAGS language for easy dissemination and customization by the community of capture
"On the construction of hierarchic models"
Out, D.-J.; Out, D.J.; van Rikxoort, R.P.; Bakker, R.R.; Bakker, R.R.
1994-01-01
One of the main problems in the field of model-based diagnosis of technical systems today is finding the most useful model or models of the system being diagnosed. Often, a model showing the physical components and the connections between them is all that is available. As systems grow larger and
Analysis of Error Propagation Within Hierarchical Air Combat Models
2016-06-01
NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY, CALIFORNIA THESIS Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited ANALYSIS OF ERROR ...COVERED Master’s thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE ANALYSIS OF ERROR PROPAGATION WITHIN HIERARCHICAL AIR COMBAT MODELS 5. FUNDING NUMBERS 6...variance analysis , sampling methods, metamodeling, error propagation, Lanchester equations, agent- based simulation, design of experiments
Improving waterfowl population estimates using hierarchical models: A new approach
Barker, Nicole; Cumming, Steve; Darveau, Marcel
2013-01-01
Recommended citation: Barker, N. K. S., S. G. Cumming, and M. Darveau. 2013. Improving waterfowl population estimates using hierarchical models: A new approach. Poster, Ecology and Conservation of North American Waterfowl. Memphis, TN, USA. Retrieved from figshare: http://dx.doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.658776.
Hierarchical modelling for the environmental sciences statistical methods and applications
Clark, James S
2006-01-01
New statistical tools are changing the way in which scientists analyze and interpret data and models. Hierarchical Bayes and Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods for analysis provide a consistent framework for inference and prediction where information is heterogeneous and uncertain, processes are complicated, and responses depend on scale. Nowhere are these methods more promising than in the environmental sciences.
Modeling urban air pollution with optimized hierarchical fuzzy inference system.
Tashayo, Behnam; Alimohammadi, Abbas
2016-10-01
Environmental exposure assessments (EEA) and epidemiological studies require urban air pollution models with appropriate spatial and temporal resolutions. Uncertain available data and inflexible models can limit air pollution modeling techniques, particularly in under developing countries. This paper develops a hierarchical fuzzy inference system (HFIS) to model air pollution under different land use, transportation, and meteorological conditions. To improve performance, the system treats the issue as a large-scale and high-dimensional problem and develops the proposed model using a three-step approach. In the first step, a geospatial information system (GIS) and probabilistic methods are used to preprocess the data. In the second step, a hierarchical structure is generated based on the problem. In the third step, the accuracy and complexity of the model are simultaneously optimized with a multiple objective particle swarm optimization (MOPSO) algorithm. We examine the capabilities of the proposed model for predicting daily and annual mean PM2.5 and NO2 and compare the accuracy of the results with representative models from existing literature. The benefits provided by the model features, including probabilistic preprocessing, multi-objective optimization, and hierarchical structure, are precisely evaluated by comparing five different consecutive models in terms of accuracy and complexity criteria. Fivefold cross validation is used to assess the performance of the generated models. The respective average RMSEs and coefficients of determination (R (2)) for the test datasets using proposed model are as follows: daily PM2.5 = (8.13, 0.78), annual mean PM2.5 = (4.96, 0.80), daily NO2 = (5.63, 0.79), and annual mean NO2 = (2.89, 0.83). The obtained results demonstrate that the developed hierarchical fuzzy inference system can be utilized for modeling air pollution in EEA and epidemiological studies.
Hierarchical Coloured Petrinet Based Healthcare Infrastructure Interdependency Model
Nivedita, N.; S. Durbha
2014-01-01
To ensure a resilient Healthcare Critical Infrastructure, understanding the vulnerabilities and analysing the interdependency on other critical infrastructures is important. To model this critical infrastructure and its dependencies, Hierarchal Coloured petri net modelling approach for simulating the vulnerability of Healthcare Critical infrastructure in a disaster situation is studied.. The model enables to analyse and understand various state changes, which occur when there is a di...
Hierarchical Modelling of Flood Risk for Engineering Decision Analysis
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Custer, Rocco
to changing flood risk. In the presence of flood protection structures, flood development depends on the state of all protection structures in the system. As such, hazard is a function not only of rainfall and river discharge, but also of protection structures’ fragility. A methodology for flood risk analysis...... and decision analysis for hierarchical flood protection systems is proposed, which allows for joint consideration of hazard models and fragility models of protection structures. In the implementation of the flood risk analysis methodology several challenges are identified, two of which are addressed...... systems, as well as the implementation of the flood risk analysis methodology and the vulnerability modelling approach are illustrated with an example application. In summary, the present thesis provides a characterisation of hierarchical flood protection systems as well as several methodologies to model...
Petascale Hierarchical Modeling VIA Parallel Execution
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Gelman, Andrew [Principal Investigator
2014-04-14
The research allows more effective model building. By allowing researchers to fit complex models to large datasets in a scalable manner, our algorithms and software enable more effective scientific research. In the new area of “big data,” it is often necessary to fit “big models” to adjust for systematic differences between sample and population. For this task, scalable and efficient model-fitting tools are needed, and these have been achieved with our new Hamiltonian Monte Carlo algorithm, the no-U-turn sampler, and our new C++ program, Stan. In layman’s terms, our research enables researchers to create improved mathematical modes for large and complex systems.
A hierarchical model for ordinal matrix factorization
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Paquet, Ulrich; Thomson, Blaise; Winther, Ole
2012-01-01
their ratings for other movies. The Netflix data set is used for evaluation, which consists of around 100 million ratings. Using root mean-squared error (RMSE) as an evaluation metric, results show that the suggested model outperforms alternative factorization techniques. Results also show how Gibbs sampling...
An endogenous policy model of hierarchical government
Mazza, I.; van Winden, F.
2008-01-01
Endogenous policy models usually neglect that government policies are frequently the result of decisions taken at different tiers by different agents, each enjoying some degree of autonomy. In this paper, policies are the outcome of the choices made by two agents within a hierarchy. A legislator
A Hierarchical Visualization Analysis Model of Power Big Data
Li, Yongjie; Wang, Zheng; Hao, Yang
2018-01-01
Based on the conception of integrating VR scene and power big data analysis, a hierarchical visualization analysis model of power big data is proposed, in which levels are designed, targeting at different abstract modules like transaction, engine, computation, control and store. The regularly departed modules of power data storing, data mining and analysis, data visualization are integrated into one platform by this model. It provides a visual analysis solution for the power big data.
A hierarchical modeling framework for multiple observer transect surveys.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Paul B Conn
Full Text Available Ecologists often use multiple observer transect surveys to census animal populations. In addition to animal counts, these surveys produce sequences of detections and non-detections for each observer. When combined with additional data (i.e. covariates such as distance from the transect line, these sequences provide the additional information to estimate absolute abundance when detectability on the transect line is less than one. Although existing analysis approaches for such data have proven extremely useful, they have some limitations. For instance, it is difficult to extrapolate from observed areas to unobserved areas unless a rigorous sampling design is adhered to; it is also difficult to share information across spatial and temporal domains or to accommodate habitat-abundance relationships. In this paper, we introduce a hierarchical modeling framework for multiple observer line transects that removes these limitations. In particular, abundance intensities can be modeled as a function of habitat covariates, making it easier to extrapolate to unsampled areas. Our approach relies on a complete data representation of the state space, where unobserved animals and their covariates are modeled using a reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. Observer detections are modeled via a bivariate normal distribution on the probit scale, with dependence induced by a distance-dependent correlation parameter. We illustrate performance of our approach with simulated data and on a known population of golf tees. In both cases, we show that our hierarchical modeling approach yields accurate inference about abundance and related parameters. In addition, we obtain accurate inference about population-level covariates (e.g. group size. We recommend that ecologists consider using hierarchical models when analyzing multiple-observer transect data, especially when it is difficult to rigorously follow pre-specified sampling designs. We provide a new R package
Application of Bayesian Hierarchical Prior Modeling to Sparse Channel Estimation
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Pedersen, Niels Lovmand; Manchón, Carles Navarro; Shutin, Dmitriy
2012-01-01
terms have proven to have strong sparsity-inducing properties. In this work, we design pilot assisted channel estimators for OFDM wireless receivers within the framework of sparse Bayesian learning by defining hierarchical Bayesian prior models that lead to sparsity-inducing penalization terms......Existing methods for sparse channel estimation typically provide an estimate computed as the solution maximizing an objective function defined as the sum of the log-likelihood function and a penalization term proportional to the l1-norm of the parameter of interest. However, other penalization....... The estimators result as an application of the variational message-passing algorithm on the factor graph representing the signal model extended with the hierarchical prior models. Numerical results demonstrate the superior performance of our channel estimators as compared to traditional and state...
Hierarchical Model Predictive Control for Resource Distribution
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Bendtsen, Jan Dimon; Trangbæk, K; Stoustrup, Jakob
2010-01-01
This paper deals with hierarchichal model predictive control (MPC) of distributed systems. A three level hierachical approach is proposed, consisting of a high level MPC controller, a second level of so-called aggregators, controlled by an online MPC-like algorithm, and a lower level of autonomous...... units. The approach is inspired by smart-grid electric power production and consumption systems, where the flexibility of a large number of power producing and/or power consuming units can be exploited in a smart-grid solution. The objective is to accommodate the load variation on the grid, arising...... facilitates plug-and-play addition of subsystems without redesign of any controllers. The method is supported by a number of simulations featuring a three-level smart-grid power control system for a small isolated power grid....
Introduction to Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling for Ecological Data
Parent, Eric
2012-01-01
Making statistical modeling and inference more accessible to ecologists and related scientists, Introduction to Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling for Ecological Data gives readers a flexible and effective framework to learn about complex ecological processes from various sources of data. It also helps readers get started on building their own statistical models. The text begins with simple models that progressively become more complex and realistic through explanatory covariates and intermediate hidden states variables. When fitting the models to data, the authors gradually present the concepts a
Hierarchical models and the analysis of bird survey information
Sauer, J.R.; Link, W.A.
2003-01-01
Management of birds often requires analysis of collections of estimates. We describe a hierarchical modeling approach to the analysis of these data, in which parameters associated with the individual species estimates are treated as random variables, and probability statements are made about the species parameters conditioned on the data. A Markov-Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) procedure is used to fit the hierarchical model. This approach is computer intensive, and is based upon simulation. MCMC allows for estimation both of parameters and of derived statistics. To illustrate the application of this method, we use the case in which we are interested in attributes of a collection of estimates of population change. Using data for 28 species of grassland-breeding birds from the North American Breeding Bird Survey, we estimate the number of species with increasing populations, provide precision-adjusted rankings of species trends, and describe a measure of population stability as the probability that the trend for a species is within a certain interval. Hierarchical models can be applied to a variety of bird survey applications, and we are investigating their use in estimation of population change from survey data.
A new approach for modeling generalization gradients: a case for hierarchical models
Vanbrabant, Koen; Boddez, Yannick; Verduyn, Philippe; Mestdagh, Merijn; Hermans, Dirk; Raes, Filip
2015-01-01
A case is made for the use of hierarchical models in the analysis of generalization gradients. Hierarchical models overcome several restrictions that are imposed by repeated measures analysis-of-variance (rANOVA), the default statistical method in current generalization research. More specifically, hierarchical models allow to include continuous independent variables and overcomes problematic assumptions such as sphericity. We focus on how generalization research can benefit from this added flexibility. In a simulation study we demonstrate the dominance of hierarchical models over rANOVA. In addition, we show the lack of efficiency of the Mauchly's sphericity test in sample sizes typical for generalization research, and confirm how violations of sphericity increase the probability of type I errors. A worked example of a hierarchical model is provided, with a specific emphasis on the interpretation of parameters relevant for generalization research. PMID:26074834
Hierarchical Heteroclinics in Dynamical Model of Cognitive Processes: Chunking
Afraimovich, Valentin S.; Young, Todd R.; Rabinovich, Mikhail I.
Combining the results of brain imaging and nonlinear dynamics provides a new hierarchical vision of brain network functionality that is helpful in understanding the relationship of the network to different mental tasks. Using these ideas it is possible to build adequate models for the description and prediction of different cognitive activities in which the number of variables is usually small enough for analysis. The dynamical images of different mental processes depend on their temporal organization and, as a rule, cannot be just simple attractors since cognition is characterized by transient dynamics. The mathematical image for a robust transient is a stable heteroclinic channel consisting of a chain of saddles connected by unstable separatrices. We focus here on hierarchical chunking dynamics that can represent several cognitive activities. Chunking is the dynamical phenomenon that means dividing a long information chain into shorter items. Chunking is known to be important in many processes of perception, learning, memory and cognition. We prove that in the phase space of the model that describes chunking there exists a new mathematical object — heteroclinic sequence of heteroclinic cycles — using the technique of slow-fast approximations. This new object serves as a skeleton of motions reflecting sequential features of hierarchical chunking dynamics and is an adequate image of the chunking processing.
Modeling survival data extending the cox model
Therneau, Terry M
2000-01-01
Extending the Cox Model is aimed at researchers, practitioners, and graduate students who have some exposure to traditional methods of survival analysis The emphasis is on semiparametric methods based on the proportional hazards model The inclusion of examples with SAS and S-PLUS code will make the book accessible to most working statisticians
Unsupervised Modeling of Objects and Their Hierarchical Contextual Interactions
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Tsuhan Chen
2009-01-01
Full Text Available A successful representation of objects in literature is as a collection of patches, or parts, with a certain appearance and position. The relative locations of the different parts of an object are constrained by the geometry of the object. Going beyond a single object, consider a collection of images of a particular scene category containing multiple (recurring objects. The parts belonging to different objects are not constrained by such a geometry. However, the objects themselves, arguably due to their semantic relationships, demonstrate a pattern in their relative locations. Hence, analyzing the interactions among the parts across the collection of images can allow for extraction of the foreground objects, and analyzing the interactions among these objects can allow for a semantically meaningful grouping of these objects, which characterizes the entire scene. These groupings are typically hierarchical. We introduce hierarchical semantics of objects (hSO that captures this hierarchical grouping. We propose an approach for the unsupervised learning of the hSO from a collection of images of a particular scene. We also demonstrate the use of the hSO in providing context for enhanced object localization in the presence of significant occlusions, and show its superior performance over a fully connected graphical model for the same task.
Hierarchical Swarm Model: A New Approach to Optimization
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Hanning Chen
2010-01-01
Full Text Available This paper presents a novel optimization model called hierarchical swarm optimization (HSO, which simulates the natural hierarchical complex system from where more complex intelligence can emerge for complex problems solving. This proposed model is intended to suggest ways that the performance of HSO-based algorithms on complex optimization problems can be significantly improved. This performance improvement is obtained by constructing the HSO hierarchies, which means that an agent in a higher level swarm can be composed of swarms of other agents from lower level and different swarms of different levels evolve on different spatiotemporal scale. A novel optimization algorithm (named PS2O, based on the HSO model, is instantiated and tested to illustrate the ideas of HSO model clearly. Experiments were conducted on a set of 17 benchmark optimization problems including both continuous and discrete cases. The results demonstrate remarkable performance of the PS2O algorithm on all chosen benchmark functions when compared to several successful swarm intelligence and evolutionary algorithms.
Linguistic steganography on Twitter: hierarchical language modeling with manual interaction
Wilson, Alex; Blunsom, Phil; Ker, Andrew D.
2014-02-01
This work proposes a natural language stegosystem for Twitter, modifying tweets as they are written to hide 4 bits of payload per tweet, which is a greater payload than previous systems have achieved. The system, CoverTweet, includes novel components, as well as some already developed in the literature. We believe that the task of transforming covers during embedding is equivalent to unilingual machine translation (paraphrasing), and we use this equivalence to de ne a distortion measure based on statistical machine translation methods. The system incorporates this measure of distortion to rank possible tweet paraphrases, using a hierarchical language model; we use human interaction as a second distortion measure to pick the best. The hierarchical language model is designed to model the speci c language of the covers, which in this setting is the language of the Twitter user who is embedding. This is a change from previous work, where general-purpose language models have been used. We evaluate our system by testing the output against human judges, and show that humans are unable to distinguish stego tweets from cover tweets any better than random guessing.
Hierarchical Stochastic Simulation Algorithm for SBML Models of Genetic Circuits
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Leandro eWatanabe
2014-11-01
Full Text Available This paper describes a hierarchical stochastic simulation algorithm which has been implemented within iBioSim, a tool used to model, analyze, and visualize genetic circuits. Many biological analysis tools flatten out hierarchy before simulation, but there are many disadvantages associated with this approach. First, the memory required to represent the model can quickly expand in the process. Second, the flattening process is computationally expensive. Finally, when modeling a dynamic cellular population within iBioSim, inlining the hierarchy of the model is inefficient since models must grow dynamically over time. This paper discusses a new approach to handle hierarchy on the fly to make the tool faster and more memory-efficient. This approach yields significant performance improvements as compared to the former flat analysis method.
Shared Frailty Model for Left-Truncated Multivariate Survival Data
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Jensen, Henrik; Brookmeyer, Ron; Aaby, Peter
multivariate survival data, left truncation, multiplicative hazard model, shared gamma frailty, conditional model, piecewise exponential model, childhood survival......multivariate survival data, left truncation, multiplicative hazard model, shared gamma frailty, conditional model, piecewise exponential model, childhood survival...
Ising model with long range correlated disorder on hierarchical lattices
Andrade, Roberto F. S.; Cason, Daniel
2010-01-01
A next-neighbor Ising model with disordered but long range correlated coupling constants is investigated. The model is built on a hierarchical lattice and the correlation strength depends on a tuning parameter α . The results are obtained within a transfer-matrix framework, which allows for the evaluation of the properties of individual samples. Collective behavior is computed by averaging over a large number of independent realizations. The dependence of the thermodynamic and magnetic functions with respect to the temperature is investigated for each value of α . Phase diagrams in the (α,T) plane are constructed for two distinct versions of the model, indicating the existence of regions of paramagnetic and ordered phases. Critical values αc , below which the system always assumes the paramagnetic phase, are found for both versions.
Multi-mode clustering model for hierarchical wireless sensor networks
Hu, Xiangdong; Li, Yongfu; Xu, Huifen
2017-03-01
The topology management, i.e., clusters maintenance, of wireless sensor networks (WSNs) is still a challenge due to its numerous nodes, diverse application scenarios and limited resources as well as complex dynamics. To address this issue, a multi-mode clustering model (M2 CM) is proposed to maintain the clusters for hierarchical WSNs in this study. In particular, unlike the traditional time-trigger model based on the whole-network and periodic style, the M2 CM is proposed based on the local and event-trigger operations. In addition, an adaptive local maintenance algorithm is designed for the broken clusters in the WSNs using the spatial-temporal demand changes accordingly. Numerical experiments are performed using the NS2 network simulation platform. Results validate the effectiveness of the proposed model with respect to the network maintenance costs, node energy consumption and transmitted data as well as the network lifetime.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Robert S Schick
Full Text Available Body condition is an indicator of health, and it plays a key role in many vital processes for mammalian species. While evidence of individual body condition can be obtained, these observations provide just brief glimpses into the health state of the animal. An analytical framework is needed for understanding how health of animals changes over space and time.Through knowledge of individual health we can better understand the status of populations. This is particularly important in endangered species, where the consequences of disruption of critical biological functions can push groups of animals rapidly toward extinction. Here we built a state-space model that provides estimates of movement, health, and survival. We assimilated 30+ years of photographic evidence of body condition and three additional visual health parameters in individual North Atlantic right whales, together with survey data, to infer the true health status as it changes over space and time. We also included the effect of reproductive status and entanglement status on health. At the population level, we estimated differential movement patterns in males and females. At the individual level, we estimated the likely animal locations each month. We estimated the relationship between observed and latent health status. Observations of body condition, skin condition, cyamid infestation on the blowholes, and rake marks all provided measures of the true underlying health. The resulting time series of individual health highlight both normal variations in health status and how anthropogenic stressors can affect the health and, ultimately, the survival of individuals. This modeling approach provides information for monitoring of health in right whales, as well as a framework for integrating observational data at the level of individuals up through the health status of the population. This framework can be broadly applied to a variety of systems - terrestrial and marine - where sporadic
Modeling evolutionary dynamics of epigenetic mutations in hierarchically organized tumors.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Andrea Sottoriva
2011-05-01
Full Text Available The cancer stem cell (CSC concept is a highly debated topic in cancer research. While experimental evidence in favor of the cancer stem cell theory is apparently abundant, the results are often criticized as being difficult to interpret. An important reason for this is that most experimental data that support this model rely on transplantation studies. In this study we use a novel cellular Potts model to elucidate the dynamics of established malignancies that are driven by a small subset of CSCs. Our results demonstrate that epigenetic mutations that occur during mitosis display highly altered dynamics in CSC-driven malignancies compared to a classical, non-hierarchical model of growth. In particular, the heterogeneity observed in CSC-driven tumors is considerably higher. We speculate that this feature could be used in combination with epigenetic (methylation sequencing studies of human malignancies to prove or refute the CSC hypothesis in established tumors without the need for transplantation. Moreover our tumor growth simulations indicate that CSC-driven tumors display evolutionary features that can be considered beneficial during tumor progression. Besides an increased heterogeneity they also exhibit properties that allow the escape of clones from local fitness peaks. This leads to more aggressive phenotypes in the long run and makes the neoplasm more adaptable to stringent selective forces such as cancer treatment. Indeed when therapy is applied the clone landscape of the regrown tumor is more aggressive with respect to the primary tumor, whereas the classical model demonstrated similar patterns before and after therapy. Understanding these often counter-intuitive fundamental properties of (non-hierarchically organized malignancies is a crucial step in validating the CSC concept as well as providing insight into the therapeutical consequences of this model.
A Bayesian hierarchical model for climate change detection and attribution
Katzfuss, Matthias; Hammerling, Dorit; Smith, Richard L.
2017-06-01
Regression-based detection and attribution methods continue to take a central role in the study of climate change and its causes. Here we propose a novel Bayesian hierarchical approach to this problem, which allows us to address several open methodological questions. Specifically, we take into account the uncertainties in the true temperature change due to imperfect measurements, the uncertainty in the true climate signal under different forcing scenarios due to the availability of only a small number of climate model simulations, and the uncertainty associated with estimating the climate variability covariance matrix, including the truncation of the number of empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) in this covariance matrix. We apply Bayesian model averaging to assign optimal probabilistic weights to different possible truncations and incorporate all uncertainties into the inference on the regression coefficients. We provide an efficient implementation of our method in a software package and illustrate its use with a realistic application.
Tractography Segmentation Using a Hierarchical Dirichlet Processes Mixture Model
Wang, Xiaogang; Grimson, W. Eric L.; Westin, Carl-Fredrik
2010-01-01
In this paper, we propose a new nonparametric Bayesian framework to cluster white matter fiber tracts into bundles using a hierarchical Dirichlet processes mixture (HDPM) model. The number of clusters is automatically learnt from data with a Dirichlet process (DP) prior instead of being manually specified. After the models of bundles have been learnt from training data without supervision, they can be used as priors to cluster/classify fibers of new subjects. When clustering fibers of new subjects, new clusters can be created for structures not observed in the training data. Our approach does not require computing pairwise distances between fibers and can cluster a huge set of fibers across multiple subjects without subsampling. We present results on multiple data sets, the largest of which has more than 120, 000 fibers. PMID:19694256
Hierarchical decision modeling essays in honor of Dundar F. Kocaoglu
2016-01-01
This volume, developed in honor of Dr. Dundar F. Kocaoglu, aims to demonstrate the applications of the Hierarchical Decision Model (HDM) in different sectors and its capacity in decision analysis. It is comprised of essays from noted scholars, academics and researchers of engineering and technology management around the world. This book is organized into four parts: Technology Assessment, Strategic Planning, National Technology Planning and Decision Making Tools. Dr. Dundar F. Kocaoglu is one of the pioneers of multiple decision models using hierarchies, and creator of the HDM in decision analysis. HDM is a mission-oriented method for evaluation and/or selection among alternatives. A wide range of alternatives can be considered, including but not limited to, different technologies, projects, markets, jobs, products, cities to live in, houses to buy, apartments to rent, and schools to attend. Dr. Kocaoglu’s approach has been adopted for decision problems in many industrial sectors, including electronics rese...
Landau, Will; Niemi, Jarad
2016-01-01
Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is the predominant tool used in Bayesian parameter estimation for hierarchical models. When the model expands due to an increasing number of hierarchical levels, number of groups at a particular level, or number of observations in each group, a fully Bayesian analysis via MCMC can easily become computationally demanding, even intractable. We illustrate how the steps in an MCMC for hierarchical models are predominantly one of two types: conditionally independent...
Regulator Loss Functions and Hierarchical Modeling for Safety Decision Making.
Hatfield, Laura A; Baugh, Christine M; Azzone, Vanessa; Normand, Sharon-Lise T
2017-07-01
Regulators must act to protect the public when evidence indicates safety problems with medical devices. This requires complex tradeoffs among risks and benefits, which conventional safety surveillance methods do not incorporate. To combine explicit regulator loss functions with statistical evidence on medical device safety signals to improve decision making. In the Hospital Cost and Utilization Project National Inpatient Sample, we select pediatric inpatient admissions and identify adverse medical device events (AMDEs). We fit hierarchical Bayesian models to the annual hospital-level AMDE rates, accounting for patient and hospital characteristics. These models produce expected AMDE rates (a safety target), against which we compare the observed rates in a test year to compute a safety signal. We specify a set of loss functions that quantify the costs and benefits of each action as a function of the safety signal. We integrate the loss functions over the posterior distribution of the safety signal to obtain the posterior (Bayes) risk; the preferred action has the smallest Bayes risk. Using simulation and an analysis of AMDE data, we compare our minimum-risk decisions to a conventional Z score approach for classifying safety signals. The 2 rules produced different actions for nearly half of hospitals (45%). In the simulation, decisions that minimize Bayes risk outperform Z score-based decisions, even when the loss functions or hierarchical models are misspecified. Our method is sensitive to the choice of loss functions; eliciting quantitative inputs to the loss functions from regulators is challenging. A decision-theoretic approach to acting on safety signals is potentially promising but requires careful specification of loss functions in consultation with subject matter experts.
A Hierarchical Model for Continuous Gesture Recognition Using Kinect
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Jensen, Søren Kejser; Moesgaard, Christoffer; Nielsen, Christoffer Samuel
2013-01-01
Human gesture recognition is an area, which has been studied thoroughly in recent years,and close to100% recognition rates in restricted environments have been achieved, often either with single separated gestures in the input stream, or with computationally intensive systems. The results...... are unfortunately not as striking, when it comes to a continuous stream of gestures. In this paper we introduce a hierarchical system for gesture recognition for use in a gaming setting, with a continuous stream of data. Layer 1 is based on Nearest Neighbor Search and layer 2 uses Hidden Markov Models. The system...... propose a way of attributing recognised gestures with a force attribute, for use in gaming. The recognition rate in layer 1 is 68.2%, with an even higher rate for simple gestures. Layer 2 reduces the noise and has aaverage recognition rate of 85.1%. When some simple constraints are added we reach...
Application of hierarchical genetic models to Raven and WAIS subtests: a Dutch twin study
Rijsdijk, F.V.; Vernon, P.A.; Boomsma, D.I.
2002-01-01
Hierarchical models of intelligence are highly informative and widely accepted. Application of these models to twin data, however, is sparse. This paper addresses the question of how a genetic hierarchical model fits the Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale (WAIS) subtests and the Raven Standard
Hierarchical modeling and its numerical implementation for layered thin elastic structures
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Cho, Jin-Rae [Hongik University, Sejong (Korea, Republic of)
2017-05-15
Thin elastic structures such as beam- and plate-like structures and laminates are characterized by the small thickness, which lead to classical plate and laminate theories in which the displacement fields through the thickness are assumed linear or higher-order polynomials. These classical theories are either insufficient to represent the complex stress variation through the thickness or may encounter the accuracy-computational cost dilemma. In order to overcome the inherent problem of classical theories, the concept of hierarchical modeling has been emerged. In the hierarchical modeling, the hierarchical models with different model levels are selected and combined within a structure domain, in order to make the modeling error be distributed as uniformly as possible throughout the problem domain. The purpose of current study is to explore the potential of hierarchical modeling for the effective numerical analysis of layered structures such as laminated composite. For this goal, the hierarchical models are constructed and the hierarchical modeling is implemented by selectively adjusting the level of hierarchical models. As well, the major characteristics of hierarchical models are investigated through the numerical experiments.
A biological hierarchical model based underwater moving object detection.
Shen, Jie; Fan, Tanghuai; Tang, Min; Zhang, Qian; Sun, Zhen; Huang, Fengchen
2014-01-01
Underwater moving object detection is the key for many underwater computer vision tasks, such as object recognizing, locating, and tracking. Considering the super ability in visual sensing of the underwater habitats, the visual mechanism of aquatic animals is generally regarded as the cue for establishing bionic models which are more adaptive to the underwater environments. However, the low accuracy rate and the absence of the prior knowledge learning limit their adaptation in underwater applications. Aiming to solve the problems originated from the inhomogeneous lumination and the unstable background, the mechanism of the visual information sensing and processing pattern from the eye of frogs are imitated to produce a hierarchical background model for detecting underwater objects. Firstly, the image is segmented into several subblocks. The intensity information is extracted for establishing background model which could roughly identify the object and the background regions. The texture feature of each pixel in the rough object region is further analyzed to generate the object contour precisely. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method gives a better performance. Compared to the traditional Gaussian background model, the completeness of the object detection is 97.92% with only 0.94% of the background region that is included in the detection results.
A Biological Hierarchical Model Based Underwater Moving Object Detection
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jie Shen
2014-01-01
Full Text Available Underwater moving object detection is the key for many underwater computer vision tasks, such as object recognizing, locating, and tracking. Considering the super ability in visual sensing of the underwater habitats, the visual mechanism of aquatic animals is generally regarded as the cue for establishing bionic models which are more adaptive to the underwater environments. However, the low accuracy rate and the absence of the prior knowledge learning limit their adaptation in underwater applications. Aiming to solve the problems originated from the inhomogeneous lumination and the unstable background, the mechanism of the visual information sensing and processing pattern from the eye of frogs are imitated to produce a hierarchical background model for detecting underwater objects. Firstly, the image is segmented into several subblocks. The intensity information is extracted for establishing background model which could roughly identify the object and the background regions. The texture feature of each pixel in the rough object region is further analyzed to generate the object contour precisely. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method gives a better performance. Compared to the traditional Gaussian background model, the completeness of the object detection is 97.92% with only 0.94% of the background region that is included in the detection results.
Topics in Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling and its Monte Carlo Computations
Tak, Hyung Suk
The first chapter addresses a Beta-Binomial-Logit model that is a Beta-Binomial conjugate hierarchical model with covariate information incorporated via a logistic regression. Various researchers in the literature have unknowingly used improper posterior distributions or have given incorrect statements about posterior propriety because checking posterior propriety can be challenging due to the complicated functional form of a Beta-Binomial-Logit model. We derive data-dependent necessary and sufficient conditions for posterior propriety within a class of hyper-prior distributions that encompass those used in previous studies. Frequency coverage properties of several hyper-prior distributions are also investigated to see when and whether Bayesian interval estimates of random effects meet their nominal confidence levels. The second chapter deals with a time delay estimation problem in astrophysics. When the gravitational field of an intervening galaxy between a quasar and the Earth is strong enough to split light into two or more images, the time delay is defined as the difference between their travel times. The time delay can be used to constrain cosmological parameters and can be inferred from the time series of brightness data of each image. To estimate the time delay, we construct a Gaussian hierarchical model based on a state-space representation for irregularly observed time series generated by a latent continuous-time Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. Our Bayesian approach jointly infers model parameters via a Gibbs sampler. We also introduce a profile likelihood of the time delay as an approximation of its marginal posterior distribution. The last chapter specifies a repelling-attracting Metropolis algorithm, a new Markov chain Monte Carlo method to explore multi-modal distributions in a simple and fast manner. This algorithm is essentially a Metropolis-Hastings algorithm with a proposal that consists of a downhill move in density that aims to make local modes
A hierarchical network modeling method for railway tunnels safety assessment
Zhou, Jin; Xu, Weixiang; Guo, Xin; Liu, Xumin
2017-02-01
Using network theory to model risk-related knowledge on accidents is regarded as potential very helpful in risk management. A large amount of defects detection data for railway tunnels is collected in autumn every year in China. It is extremely important to discover the regularities knowledge in database. In this paper, based on network theories and by using data mining techniques, a new method is proposed for mining risk-related regularities to support risk management in railway tunnel projects. A hierarchical network (HN) model which takes into account the tunnel structures, tunnel defects, potential failures and accidents is established. An improved Apriori algorithm is designed to rapidly and effectively mine correlations between tunnel structures and tunnel defects. Then an algorithm is presented in order to mine the risk-related regularities table (RRT) from the frequent patterns. At last, a safety assessment method is proposed by consideration of actual defects and possible risks of defects gained from the RRT. This method cannot only generate the quantitative risk results but also reveal the key defects and critical risks of defects. This paper is further development on accident causation network modeling methods which can provide guidance for specific maintenance measure.
Lu, Tingrong
2008-01-01
In Kleinrock and Kamoun's paper, the inverse relation of routing table length index and routing path length index in hierarchical routing model is illustrated. In this paper we give the analytical correlation of routing table length index and routing path length index in hierarchical routing model.
On the Estimation of Hierarchical Latent Regression Models for Large-Scale Assessments
Li, Deping; Oranje, Andreas; Jiang, Yanlin
2009-01-01
To find population proficiency distributions, a two-level hierarchical linear model may be applied to large-scale survey assessments such as the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP). The model and parameter estimation are developed and a simulation was carried out to evaluate parameter recovery. Subsequently, both a hierarchical and…
A note on adding and deleting edges in hierarchical log-linear models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Edwards, David
2012-01-01
The operations of edge addition and deletion for hierarchical log-linear models are defined, and polynomial-time algorithms for the operations are given......The operations of edge addition and deletion for hierarchical log-linear models are defined, and polynomial-time algorithms for the operations are given...
On stable Pareto laws in a hierarchical model of economy
Chebotarev, A. M.
2007-01-01
This study considers a model of the income distribution of agents whose pairwise interaction is asymmetric and price-invariant. Asymmetric transactions are typical for chain-trading groups who arrange their business such that commodities move from senior to junior partners and money moves in the opposite direction. The price-invariance of transactions means that the probability of a pairwise interaction is a function of the ratio of incomes, which is independent of the price scale or absolute income level. These two features characterize the hierarchical model. The income distribution in this class of models is a well-defined double-Pareto function, which possesses Pareto tails for the upper and lower incomes. For gross and net upper incomes, the model predicts definite values of the Pareto exponents, agross and anet, which are stable with respect to quantitative variation of the pair-interaction. The Pareto exponents are also stable with respect to the choice of a demand function within two classes of status-dependent behavior of agents: linear demand ( agross=1, anet=2) and unlimited slowly varying demand ( agross=anet=1). For the sigmoidal demand that describes limited returns, agross=anet=1+α, with some α>0 satisfying a transcendental equation. The low-income distribution may be singular or vanishing in the neighborhood of the minimal income; in any case, it is L1-integrable and its Pareto exponent is given explicitly. The theory used in the present study is based on a simple balance equation and new results from multiplicative Markov chains and exponential moments of random geometric progressions.
Scale of association: hierarchical linear models and the measurement of ecological systems
Sean M. McMahon; Jeffrey M. Diez
2007-01-01
A fundamental challenge to understanding patterns in ecological systems lies in employing methods that can analyse, test and draw inference from measured associations between variables across scales. Hierarchical linear models (HLM) use advanced estimation algorithms to measure regression relationships and variance-covariance parameters in hierarchically structured...
Smart Annotation of Cyclic Data Using Hierarchical Hidden Markov Models.
Martindale, Christine F; Hoenig, Florian; Strohrmann, Christina; Eskofier, Bjoern M
2017-10-13
Cyclic signals are an intrinsic part of daily life, such as human motion and heart activity. The detailed analysis of them is important for clinical applications such as pathological gait analysis and for sports applications such as performance analysis. Labeled training data for algorithms that analyze these cyclic data come at a high annotation cost due to only limited annotations available under laboratory conditions or requiring manual segmentation of the data under less restricted conditions. This paper presents a smart annotation method that reduces this cost of labeling for sensor-based data, which is applicable to data collected outside of strict laboratory conditions. The method uses semi-supervised learning of sections of cyclic data with a known cycle number. A hierarchical hidden Markov model (hHMM) is used, achieving a mean absolute error of 0.041 ± 0.020 s relative to a manually-annotated reference. The resulting model was also used to simultaneously segment and classify continuous, 'in the wild' data, demonstrating the applicability of using hHMM, trained on limited data sections, to label a complete dataset. This technique achieved comparable results to its fully-supervised equivalent. Our semi-supervised method has the significant advantage of reduced annotation cost. Furthermore, it reduces the opportunity for human error in the labeling process normally required for training of segmentation algorithms. It also lowers the annotation cost of training a model capable of continuous monitoring of cycle characteristics such as those employed to analyze the progress of movement disorders or analysis of running technique.
Smart Annotation of Cyclic Data Using Hierarchical Hidden Markov Models
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Christine F. Martindale
2017-10-01
Full Text Available Cyclic signals are an intrinsic part of daily life, such as human motion and heart activity. The detailed analysis of them is important for clinical applications such as pathological gait analysis and for sports applications such as performance analysis. Labeled training data for algorithms that analyze these cyclic data come at a high annotation cost due to only limited annotations available under laboratory conditions or requiring manual segmentation of the data under less restricted conditions. This paper presents a smart annotation method that reduces this cost of labeling for sensor-based data, which is applicable to data collected outside of strict laboratory conditions. The method uses semi-supervised learning of sections of cyclic data with a known cycle number. A hierarchical hidden Markov model (hHMM is used, achieving a mean absolute error of 0.041 ± 0.020 s relative to a manually-annotated reference. The resulting model was also used to simultaneously segment and classify continuous, ‘in the wild’ data, demonstrating the applicability of using hHMM, trained on limited data sections, to label a complete dataset. This technique achieved comparable results to its fully-supervised equivalent. Our semi-supervised method has the significant advantage of reduced annotation cost. Furthermore, it reduces the opportunity for human error in the labeling process normally required for training of segmentation algorithms. It also lowers the annotation cost of training a model capable of continuous monitoring of cycle characteristics such as those employed to analyze the progress of movement disorders or analysis of running technique.
A novel Bayesian hierarchical model for road safety hotspot prediction.
Fawcett, Lee; Thorpe, Neil; Matthews, Joseph; Kremer, Karsten
2017-02-01
In this paper, we propose a Bayesian hierarchical model for predicting accident counts in future years at sites within a pool of potential road safety hotspots. The aim is to inform road safety practitioners of the location of likely future hotspots to enable a proactive, rather than reactive, approach to road safety scheme implementation. A feature of our model is the ability to rank sites according to their potential to exceed, in some future time period, a threshold accident count which may be used as a criterion for scheme implementation. Our model specification enables the classical empirical Bayes formulation - commonly used in before-and-after studies, wherein accident counts from a single before period are used to estimate counterfactual counts in the after period - to be extended to incorporate counts from multiple time periods. This allows site-specific variations in historical accident counts (e.g. locally-observed trends) to offset estimates of safety generated by a global accident prediction model (APM), which itself is used to help account for the effects of global trend and regression-to-mean (RTM). The Bayesian posterior predictive distribution is exploited to formulate predictions and to properly quantify our uncertainty in these predictions. The main contributions of our model include (i) the ability to allow accident counts from multiple time-points to inform predictions, with counts in more recent years lending more weight to predictions than counts from time-points further in the past; (ii) where appropriate, the ability to offset global estimates of trend by variations in accident counts observed locally, at a site-specific level; and (iii) the ability to account for unknown/unobserved site-specific factors which may affect accident counts. We illustrate our model with an application to accident counts at 734 potential hotspots in the German city of Halle; we also propose some simple diagnostics to validate the predictive capability of our
Evaluating survival model performance: a graphical approach.
Mandel, M; Galai, N; Simchen, E
2005-06-30
In the last decade, many statistics have been suggested to evaluate the performance of survival models. These statistics evaluate the overall performance of a model ignoring possible variability in performance over time. Using an extension of measures used in binary regression, we propose a graphical method to depict the performance of a survival model over time. The method provides estimates of performance at specific time points and can be used as an informal test for detecting time varying effects of covariates in the Cox model framework. The method is illustrated on real and simulated data using Cox proportional hazard model and rank statistics. Copyright 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Intelligent multiagent coordination based on reinforcement hierarchical neuro-fuzzy models.
Mendoza, Leonardo Forero; Vellasco, Marley; Figueiredo, Karla
2014-12-01
This paper presents the research and development of two hybrid neuro-fuzzy models for the hierarchical coordination of multiple intelligent agents. The main objective of the models is to have multiple agents interact intelligently with each other in complex systems. We developed two new models of coordination for intelligent multiagent systems, which integrates the Reinforcement Learning Hierarchical Neuro-Fuzzy model with two proposed coordination mechanisms: the MultiAgent Reinforcement Learning Hierarchical Neuro-Fuzzy with a market-driven coordination mechanism (MA-RL-HNFP-MD) and the MultiAgent Reinforcement Learning Hierarchical Neuro-Fuzzy with graph coordination (MA-RL-HNFP-CG). In order to evaluate the proposed models and verify the contribution of the proposed coordination mechanisms, two multiagent benchmark applications were developed: the pursuit game and the robot soccer simulation. The results obtained demonstrated that the proposed coordination mechanisms greatly improve the performance of the multiagent system when compared with other strategies.
Hierarchical Bayesian Model for Simultaneous EEG Source and Forward Model Reconstruction (SOFOMORE)
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Stahlhut, Carsten; Mørup, Morten; Winther, Ole
2009-01-01
, and electrode positions. We first present a hierarchical Bayesian framework for EEG source localization that jointly performs source and forward model reconstruction (SOFOMORE). Secondly, we evaluate the SOFOMORE model by comparison with source reconstruction methods that use fixed forward models. Simulated......In this paper we propose an approach to handle forward model uncertainty for EEG source reconstruction. A stochastic forward model is motivated by the many uncertain contributions that form the forward propagation model including the tissue conductivity distribution, the cortical surface...... and real EEG data demonstrate that invoking a stochastic forward model leads to improved source estimates....
o-HETM: An Online Hierarchical Entity Topic Model for News Streams
2015-05-22
Hierarchical entity topic model · Online inference 1 Introduction Recently, once a thing of great concern such as “The Missing Flight MH370 ” hap- pens...new hierarchical entity topic model as well as an online inference method for streaming news. The Missing Flight MH370 Search and Rescue Cause of Air...about The Missing Flight “ MH370 ” In this paper, we propose to dynamically construct a hierarchy of topics and subtopics from the streaming news
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Huang, Qian; Huang, Yue-Cai; Ko, King-Tim
2011-01-01
A hierarchical overlay structure is an alternative solution that integrates existing and future heterogeneous wireless networks to provide subscribers with better mobile broadband services. Traffic loss performance in such integrated heterogeneous networks is necessary for an operator's network...... dimensioning and planning. This paper investigates the computationally efficient loss performance modeling for multiservice in hierarchical heterogeneous wireless networks. A speed-sensitive call admission control (CAC) scheme is considered in our model to assign overflowed calls to appropriate tiers...
Model selection criterion in survival analysis
Karabey, Uǧur; Tutkun, Nihal Ata
2017-07-01
Survival analysis deals with time until occurrence of an event of interest such as death, recurrence of an illness, the failure of an equipment or divorce. There are various survival models with semi-parametric or parametric approaches used in medical, natural or social sciences. The decision on the most appropriate model for the data is an important point of the analysis. In literature Akaike information criteria or Bayesian information criteria are used to select among nested models. In this study,the behavior of these information criterion is discussed for a real data set.
A stochastic evolutionary model for survival dynamics
Fenner, Trevor; Levene, Mark; Loizou, George
2014-09-01
The recent interest in human dynamics has led researchers to investigate the stochastic processes that explain human behaviour in different contexts. Here we propose a generative model to capture the essential dynamics of survival analysis, traditionally employed in clinical trials and reliability analysis in engineering. In our model, the only implicit assumption made is that the longer an actor has been in the system, the more likely it is to have failed. We derive a power-law distribution for the process and provide preliminary empirical evidence for the validity of the model from two well-known survival analysis data sets.
Extending the Real-Time Maude Semantics of Ptolemy to Hierarchical DE Models
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Peter Csaba Ölveczky
2010-09-01
Full Text Available This paper extends our Real-Time Maude formalization of the semantics of flat Ptolemy II discrete-event (DE models to hierarchical models, including modal models. This is a challenging task that requires combining synchronous fixed-point computations with hierarchical structure. The synthesis of a Real-Time Maude verification model from a Ptolemy II DE model, and the formal verification of the synthesized model in Real-Time Maude, have been integrated into Ptolemy II, enabling a model-engineering process that combines the convenience of Ptolemy II DE modeling and simulation with formal verification in Real-Time Maude.
Analysis of the North American Breeding Bird Survey using hierarchical models
Sauer, John R.; Link, William A.
2011-01-01
We analyzed population change for 420 bird species from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) using a hierarchical log-linear model, and compared the results to route regression analysis results. Survey-wide trend estimates based on the hierarchical model were more precise than estimates from the earlier analysis. No consistent pattern of differences existed in magnitude of trends between the analysis methods. Survey-wide trend estimates changed substantially for 15 species between route regression and hierarchical model analyses. We compared regional estimates for states, provinces, and Bird Conservation Regions; differences observed in these regional analyses are likely a consequence of the route regression procedure's inadequate accommodation of temporal differences in survey effort. We used species-specific hierarchical model results to estimate composite change for groups of birds associated with major habitats and migration types. Grassland, aridland, and eastern forest obligate bird species declined, while urban/suburban species increased over the interval 1968-2008. No migration status group experienced significant changes, although Nearctic-Neotropical migrant species showed intervals of decline and permanent resident species increased almost 20% during the interval. Hierarchical model results better portrayed patterns of population change over time than route regression results; we recommend use of hierarchical models for BBS analyses.
Higher Order Hierarchical Legendre Basis Functions for Electromagnetic Modeling
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Jørgensen, Erik; Volakis, John L.; Meincke, Peter
2004-01-01
This paper presents a new hierarchical basis of arbitrary order for integral equations solved with the Method of Moments (MoM). The basis is derived from orthogonal Legendre polynomials which are modified to impose continuity of vector quantities between neighboring elements while maintaining most....... In addition, all higher-order terms in the expansion have two vanishing moments.In contrast to existing formulations, these properties allow the use of very high-order basis functions without introducing ill-conditioning of the resulting MoM matrix. Numerical results confirm that the condition number...... of the MoM matrix obtained with this new basis is much lower than existing higher-order interpolatory and hierarchical basis functions. As a consequence of the excellent condition numbers, we demonstrate that even very high-order MoM systems, e.g. 10th order, can be solved efficiently with an iterative...
Bai, Hao; Zhang, Xi-wen
2017-06-01
While Chinese is learned as a second language, its characters are taught step by step from their strokes to components, radicals to components, and their complex relations. Chinese Characters in digital ink from non-native language writers are deformed seriously, thus the global recognition approaches are poorer. So a progressive approach from bottom to top is presented based on hierarchical models. Hierarchical information includes strokes and hierarchical components. Each Chinese character is modeled as a hierarchical tree. Strokes in one Chinese characters in digital ink are classified with Hidden Markov Models and concatenated to the stroke symbol sequence. And then the structure of components in one ink character is extracted. According to the extraction result and the stroke symbol sequence, candidate characters are traversed and scored. Finally, the recognition candidate results are listed by descending. The method of this paper is validated by testing 19815 copies of the handwriting Chinese characters written by foreign students.
New aerial survey and hierarchical model to estimate manatee abundance
Langimm, Cahterine A.; Dorazio, Robert M.; Stith, Bradley M.; Doyle, Terry J.
2011-01-01
Monitoring the response of endangered and protected species to hydrological restoration is a major component of the adaptive management framework of the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan. The endangered Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) lives at the marine-freshwater interface in southwest Florida and is likely to be affected by hydrologic restoration. To provide managers with prerestoration information on distribution and abundance for postrestoration comparison, we developed and implemented a new aerial survey design and hierarchical statistical model to estimate and map abundance of manatees as a function of patch-specific habitat characteristics, indicative of manatee requirements for offshore forage (seagrass), inland fresh drinking water, and warm-water winter refuge. We estimated the number of groups of manatees from dual-observer counts and estimated the number of individuals within groups by removal sampling. Our model is unique in that we jointly analyzed group and individual counts using assumptions that allow probabilities of group detection to depend on group size. Ours is the first analysis of manatee aerial surveys to model spatial and temporal abundance of manatees in association with habitat type while accounting for imperfect detection. We conducted the study in the Ten Thousand Islands area of southwestern Florida, USA, which was expected to be affected by the Picayune Strand Restoration Project to restore hydrology altered for a failed real-estate development. We conducted 11 surveys in 2006, spanning the cold, dry season and warm, wet season. To examine short-term and seasonal changes in distribution we flew paired surveys 1–2 days apart within a given month during the year. Manatees were sparsely distributed across the landscape in small groups. Probability of detection of a group increased with group size; the magnitude of the relationship between group size and detection probability varied among surveys. Probability
Modelling population-based cancer survival trends using join point models for grouped survival data.
Yu, Binbing; Huang, Lan; Tiwari, Ram C; Feuer, Eric J; Johnson, Karen A
2009-04-01
In the United States cancer as a whole is the second leading cause of death and a major burden to health care, thus the medical progress against cancer is a major public health goal. There are many individual studies to suggest that cancer treatment breakthroughs and early diagnosis have significantly improved the prognosis of cancer patients. To better understand the relationship between medical improvements and the survival experience for the patient population at large, it is useful to evaluate cancer survival trends on the population level, e.g., to find out when and how much the cancer survival rates changed. In this paper, we analyze the population-based grouped cancer survival data by incorporating joinpoints into the survival models. A joinpoint survival model facilitates the identification of trends with significant change points in cancer survival, when related to cancer treatments or interventions. The Bayesian Information Criterion is used to select the number of joinpoints. The performance of the joinpoint survival models is evaluated with respect to cancer prognosis, joinpoint locations, annual percent changes in death rates by year of diagnosis, and sample sizes through intensive simulation studies. The model is then applied to the grouped relative survival data for several major cancer sites from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) Program of the National Cancer Institute. The change points in the survival trends for several major cancer sites are identified and the potential driving forces behind such change points are discussed.
A mechanical model of biomimetic adhesive pads with tilted and hierarchical structures
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Schargott, M [Institute of Mechanics, Technische Universitaet Berlin, Strd 17 Juni 135, 10623 Berlin (Germany)], E-mail: martin.schargott@tu-berlin.de
2009-06-01
A 3D model for hierarchical biomimetic adhesive pads is constructed. It is based on the main principles of the adhesive pads of the Tokay gecko and consists of hierarchical layers of vertical or tilted beams, where each layer is constructed in such a way that no cohesion between adjacent beams can occur. The elastic and adhesive properties are calculated analytically and numerically. For the adhesive contact on stochastically rough surfaces, the maximum adhesion force increases with increasing number of hierarchical layers. Additional calculations show that the adhesion force also depends on the height spectrum of the rough surface.
Zanariah Satari, Siti; Di, Nur Faraidah Muhammad; Zakaria, Roslinazairimah
2017-09-01
Two agglomerative hierarchical clustering algorithms for identifying multiple outliers in circular regression model have been developed in this study. The agglomerative hierarchical clustering algorithm starts with every single data in a single cluster and it continues to merge with the closest pair of clusters according to some similarity criterion until all the data are grouped in one cluster. The single-linkage method is one of the simplest agglomerative hierarchical methods that is commonly used to detect outlier. In this study, we compared the performance of single-linkage method with another agglomerative hierarchical method, namely average linkage for detecting outlier in circular regression model. The performances of both methods were examined via simulation studies by measuring their “success” probability, masking effect, and swamping effect with different number of sample sizes and level of contaminations. The results show that the single-linkage method performs very well in detecting the multiple outliers with lower masking and swamping effects.
Royle, J. Andrew; Converse, Sarah J.
2014-01-01
Capture–recapture studies are often conducted on populations that are stratified by space, time or other factors. In this paper, we develop a Bayesian spatial capture–recapture (SCR) modelling framework for stratified populations – when sampling occurs within multiple distinct spatial and temporal strata.We describe a hierarchical model that integrates distinct models for both the spatial encounter history data from capture–recapture sampling, and also for modelling variation in density among strata. We use an implementation of data augmentation to parameterize the model in terms of a latent categorical stratum or group membership variable, which provides a convenient implementation in popular BUGS software packages.We provide an example application to an experimental study involving small-mammal sampling on multiple trapping grids over multiple years, where the main interest is in modelling a treatment effect on population density among the trapping grids.Many capture–recapture studies involve some aspect of spatial or temporal replication that requires some attention to modelling variation among groups or strata. We propose a hierarchical model that allows explicit modelling of group or strata effects. Because the model is formulated for individual encounter histories and is easily implemented in the BUGS language and other free software, it also provides a general framework for modelling individual effects, such as are present in SCR models.
Usability Prediction & Ranking of SDLC Models Using Fuzzy Hierarchical Usability Model
Gupta, Deepak; Ahlawat, Anil K.; Sagar, Kalpna
2017-06-01
Evaluation of software quality is an important aspect for controlling and managing the software. By such evaluation, improvements in software process can be made. The software quality is significantly dependent on software usability. Many researchers have proposed numbers of usability models. Each model considers a set of usability factors but do not cover all the usability aspects. Practical implementation of these models is still missing, as there is a lack of precise definition of usability. Also, it is very difficult to integrate these models into current software engineering practices. In order to overcome these challenges, this paper aims to define the term `usability' using the proposed hierarchical usability model with its detailed taxonomy. The taxonomy considers generic evaluation criteria for identifying the quality components, which brings together factors, attributes and characteristics defined in various HCI and software models. For the first time, the usability model is also implemented to predict more accurate usability values. The proposed system is named as fuzzy hierarchical usability model that can be easily integrated into the current software engineering practices. In order to validate the work, a dataset of six software development life cycle models is created and employed. These models are ranked according to their predicted usability values. This research also focuses on the detailed comparison of proposed model with the existing usability models.
Distributed Hierarchical Control versus an Economic Model for Cloud Resource Management
Marinescu, Dan C.; Paya, Ashkan; Morrison, John P.; Healy, Philip
2015-01-01
We investigate a hierarchically organized cloud infrastructure and compare distributed hierarchical control based on resource monitoring with market mechanisms for resource management. The latter do not require a model of the system, incur a low overhead, are robust, and satisfy several other desiderates of autonomic computing. We introduce several performance measures and report on simulation studies which show that a straightforward bidding scheme supports an effective admission control mec...
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Kristensen, Anders Ringgaard; Søllested, Thomas Algot
2004-01-01
Several replacement models have been presented in literature. In other applicational areas like dairy cow replacement, various methodological improvements like hierarchical Markov processes and Bayesian updating have been implemented, but not in sow models. Furthermore, there are methodological i...
Heuristics for Hierarchical Partitioning with Application to Model Checking
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Möller, Michael Oliver; Alur, Rajeev
2001-01-01
Given a collection of connected components, it is often desired to cluster together parts of strong correspondence, yielding a hierarchical structure. We address the automation of this process and apply heuristics to battle the combinatorial and computational complexity. We define a cost function...... that captures the quality of a structure relative to the connections and favors shallow structures with a low degree of branching. Finding a structure with minimal cost is NP-complete. We present a greedy polynomial-time algorithm that approximates good solutions incrementally by local evaluation of a heuristic...
Robust Real-Time Music Transcription with a Compositional Hierarchical Model.
Pesek, Matevž; Leonardis, Aleš; Marolt, Matija
2017-01-01
The paper presents a new compositional hierarchical model for robust music transcription. Its main features are unsupervised learning of a hierarchical representation of input data, transparency, which enables insights into the learned representation, as well as robustness and speed which make it suitable for real-world and real-time use. The model consists of multiple layers, each composed of a number of parts. The hierarchical nature of the model corresponds well to hierarchical structures in music. The parts in lower layers correspond to low-level concepts (e.g. tone partials), while the parts in higher layers combine lower-level representations into more complex concepts (tones, chords). The layers are learned in an unsupervised manner from music signals. Parts in each layer are compositions of parts from previous layers based on statistical co-occurrences as the driving force of the learning process. In the paper, we present the model's structure and compare it to other hierarchical approaches in the field of music information retrieval. We evaluate the model's performance for the multiple fundamental frequency estimation. Finally, we elaborate on extensions of the model towards other music information retrieval tasks.
Ranking of Business Process Simulation Software Tools with DEX/QQ Hierarchical Decision Model.
Damij, Nadja; Boškoski, Pavle; Bohanec, Marko; Mileva Boshkoska, Biljana
2016-01-01
The omnipresent need for optimisation requires constant improvements of companies' business processes (BPs). Minimising the risk of inappropriate BP being implemented is usually performed by simulating the newly developed BP under various initial conditions and "what-if" scenarios. An effectual business process simulations software (BPSS) is a prerequisite for accurate analysis of an BP. Characterisation of an BPSS tool is a challenging task due to the complex selection criteria that includes quality of visual aspects, simulation capabilities, statistical facilities, quality reporting etc. Under such circumstances, making an optimal decision is challenging. Therefore, various decision support models are employed aiding the BPSS tool selection. The currently established decision support models are either proprietary or comprise only a limited subset of criteria, which affects their accuracy. Addressing this issue, this paper proposes a new hierarchical decision support model for ranking of BPSS based on their technical characteristics by employing DEX and qualitative to quantitative (QQ) methodology. Consequently, the decision expert feeds the required information in a systematic and user friendly manner. There are three significant contributions of the proposed approach. Firstly, the proposed hierarchical model is easily extendible for adding new criteria in the hierarchical structure. Secondly, a fully operational decision support system (DSS) tool that implements the proposed hierarchical model is presented. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed hierarchical model is assessed by comparing the resulting rankings of BPSS with respect to currently available results.
Ma, Qiang; Cheng, Huanyu; Jang, Kyung-In; Luan, Haiwen; Hwang, Keh-Chih; Rogers, John A; Huang, Yonggang; Zhang, Yihui
2016-05-01
Development of advanced synthetic materials that can mimic the mechanical properties of non-mineralized soft biological materials has important implications in a wide range of technologies. Hierarchical lattice materials constructed with horseshoe microstructures belong to this class of bio-inspired synthetic materials, where the mechanical responses can be tailored to match the nonlinear J-shaped stress-strain curves of human skins. The underlying relations between the J-shaped stress-strain curves and their microstructure geometry are essential in designing such systems for targeted applications. Here, a theoretical model of this type of hierarchical lattice material is developed by combining a finite deformation constitutive relation of the building block (i.e., horseshoe microstructure), with the analyses of equilibrium and deformation compatibility in the periodical lattices. The nonlinear J-shaped stress-strain curves and Poisson ratios predicted by this model agree very well with results of finite element analyses (FEA) and experiment. Based on this model, analytic solutions were obtained for some key mechanical quantities, e.g., elastic modulus, Poisson ratio, peak modulus, and critical strain around which the tangent modulus increases rapidly. A negative Poisson effect is revealed in the hierarchical lattice with triangular topology, as opposed to a positive Poisson effect in hierarchical lattices with Kagome and honeycomb topologies. The lattice topology is also found to have a strong influence on the stress-strain curve. For the three isotropic lattice topologies (triangular, Kagome and honeycomb), the hierarchical triangular lattice material renders the sharpest transition in the stress-strain curve and relative high stretchability, given the same porosity and arc angle of horseshoe microstructure. Furthermore, a demonstrative example illustrates the utility of the developed model in the rapid optimization of hierarchical lattice materials for
Lininger, Monica; Spybrook, Jessaca; Cheatham, Christopher C
2015-04-01
Longitudinal designs are common in the field of athletic training. For example, in the Journal of Athletic Training from 2005 through 2010, authors of 52 of the 218 original research articles used longitudinal designs. In 50 of the 52 studies, a repeated-measures analysis of variance was used to analyze the data. A possible alternative to this approach is the hierarchical linear model, which has been readily accepted in other medical fields. In this short report, we demonstrate the use of the hierarchical linear model for analyzing data from a longitudinal study in athletic training. We discuss the relevant hypotheses, model assumptions, analysis procedures, and output from the HLM 7.0 software. We also examine the advantages and disadvantages of using the hierarchical linear model with repeated measures and repeated-measures analysis of variance for longitudinal data.
Wey, Andrew; Connett, John; Rudser, Kyle
2015-07-01
For estimating conditional survival functions, non-parametric estimators can be preferred to parametric and semi-parametric estimators due to relaxed assumptions that enable robust estimation. Yet, even when misspecified, parametric and semi-parametric estimators can possess better operating characteristics in small sample sizes due to smaller variance than non-parametric estimators. Fundamentally, this is a bias-variance trade-off situation in that the sample size is not large enough to take advantage of the low bias of non-parametric estimation. Stacked survival models estimate an optimally weighted combination of models that can span parametric, semi-parametric, and non-parametric models by minimizing prediction error. An extensive simulation study demonstrates that stacked survival models consistently perform well across a wide range of scenarios by adaptively balancing the strengths and weaknesses of individual candidate survival models. In addition, stacked survival models perform as well as or better than the model selected through cross-validation. Finally, stacked survival models are applied to a well-known German breast cancer study. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.
Robust Real-Time Music Transcription with a Compositional Hierarchical Model
Pesek, Matevž; Leonardis, Aleš; Marolt, Matija
2017-01-01
The paper presents a new compositional hierarchical model for robust music transcription. Its main features are unsupervised learning of a hierarchical representation of input data, transparency, which enables insights into the learned representation, as well as robustness and speed which make it suitable for real-world and real-time use. The model consists of multiple layers, each composed of a number of parts. The hierarchical nature of the model corresponds well to hierarchical structures in music. The parts in lower layers correspond to low-level concepts (e.g. tone partials), while the parts in higher layers combine lower-level representations into more complex concepts (tones, chords). The layers are learned in an unsupervised manner from music signals. Parts in each layer are compositions of parts from previous layers based on statistical co-occurrences as the driving force of the learning process. In the paper, we present the model’s structure and compare it to other hierarchical approaches in the field of music information retrieval. We evaluate the model’s performance for the multiple fundamental frequency estimation. Finally, we elaborate on extensions of the model towards other music information retrieval tasks. PMID:28046074
The Hierarchical Trend Model for property valuation and local price indices
Francke, M.K.; Vos, G.A.
2002-01-01
This paper presents a hierarchical trend model (HTM) for selling prices of houses, addressing three main problems: the spatial and temporal dependence of selling prices and the dependency of price index changes on housing quality. In this model the general price trend, cluster-level price trends,
A Hierarchical Linear Model for Estimating Gender-Based Earnings Differentials.
Haberfield, Yitchak; Semyonov, Moshe; Addi, Audrey
1998-01-01
Estimates of gender earnings inequality in data from 116,431 Jewish workers were compared using a hierarchical linear model (HLM) and ordinary least squares model. The HLM allows estimation of the extent to which earnings inequality depends on occupational characteristics. (SK)
Measuring Service Quality in Higher Education: Development of a Hierarchical Model (HESQUAL)
Teeroovengadum, Viraiyan; Kamalanabhan, T. J.; Seebaluck, Ashley Keshwar
2016-01-01
Purpose: This paper aims to develop and empirically test a hierarchical model for measuring service quality in higher education. Design/methodology/approach: The first phase of the study consisted of qualitative research methods and a comprehensive literature review, which allowed the development of a conceptual model comprising 53 service quality…
Avoiding Boundary Estimates in Hierarchical Linear Models through Weakly Informative Priors
Chung, Yeojin; Rabe-Hesketh, Sophia; Gelman, Andrew; Dorie, Vincent; Liu, Jinchen
2012-01-01
Hierarchical or multilevel linear models are widely used for longitudinal or cross-sectional data on students nested in classes and schools, and are particularly important for estimating treatment effects in cluster-randomized trials, multi-site trials, and meta-analyses. The models can allow for variation in treatment effects, as well as…
Osei, Frank B.; Osei, F.B.; Duker, Alfred A.; Stein, A.
2011-01-01
This study analyses the joint effects of the two transmission routes of cholera on the space-time diffusion dynamics. Statistical models are developed and presented to investigate the transmission network routes of cholera diffusion. A hierarchical Bayesian modelling approach is employed for a joint
A generalized additive regression model for survival times
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Scheike, Thomas H.
2001-01-01
Additive Aalen model; counting process; disability model; illness-death model; generalized additive models; multiple time-scales; non-parametric estimation; survival data; varying-coefficient models......Additive Aalen model; counting process; disability model; illness-death model; generalized additive models; multiple time-scales; non-parametric estimation; survival data; varying-coefficient models...
Fuzzy hierarchical model for risk assessment principles, concepts, and practical applications
Chan, Hing Kai
2013-01-01
Risk management is often complicated by situational uncertainties and the subjective preferences of decision makers. Fuzzy Hierarchical Model for Risk Assessment introduces a fuzzy-based hierarchical approach to solve risk management problems considering both qualitative and quantitative criteria to tackle imprecise information. This approach is illustrated through number of case studies using examples from the food, fashion and electronics sectors to cover a range of applications including supply chain management, green product design and green initiatives. These practical examples explore how this method can be adapted and fine tuned to fit other industries as well. Supported by an extensive literature review, Fuzzy Hierarchical Model for Risk Assessment comprehensively introduces a new method for project managers across all industries as well as researchers in risk management.
unmarked: An R package for fitting hierarchical models of wildlife occurrence and abundance
Fiske, Ian J.; Chandler, Richard B.
2011-01-01
Ecological research uses data collection techniques that are prone to substantial and unique types of measurement error to address scientific questions about species abundance and distribution. These data collection schemes include a number of survey methods in which unmarked individuals are counted, or determined to be present, at spatially- referenced sites. Examples include site occupancy sampling, repeated counts, distance sampling, removal sampling, and double observer sampling. To appropriately analyze these data, hierarchical models have been developed to separately model explanatory variables of both a latent abundance or occurrence process and a conditional detection process. Because these models have a straightforward interpretation paralleling mechanisms under which the data arose, they have recently gained immense popularity. The common hierarchical structure of these models is well-suited for a unified modeling interface. The R package unmarked provides such a unified modeling framework, including tools for data exploration, model fitting, model criticism, post-hoc analysis, and model comparison.
unmarked: An R Package for Fitting Hierarchical Models of Wildlife Occurrence and Abundance
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ian J. Fiske
2011-08-01
Full Text Available Ecological research uses data collection techniques that are prone to substantial and unique types of measurement error to address scientific questions about species abundance and distribution. These data collection schemes include a number of survey methods in which unmarked individuals are counted, or determined to be present, at spatially- referenced sites. Examples include site occupancy sampling, repeated counts, distance sampling, removal sampling, and double observer sampling. To appropriately analyze these data, hierarchical models have been developed to separately model explanatory variables of both a latent abundance or occurrence process and a conditional detection process. Because these models have a straightforward interpretation paralleling mechanisms under which the data arose, they have recently gained immense popularity. The common hierarchical structure of these models is well-suited for a unified modeling interface. The R package unmarked provides such a unified modeling framework, including tools for data exploration, model fitting, model criticism, post-hoc analysis, and model comparison.
Tsai, Frank T.-C.; Elshall, Ahmed S.
2013-09-01
Analysts are often faced with competing propositions for each uncertain model component. How can we judge that we select a correct proposition(s) for an uncertain model component out of numerous possible propositions? We introduce the hierarchical Bayesian model averaging (HBMA) method as a multimodel framework for uncertainty analysis. The HBMA allows for segregating, prioritizing, and evaluating different sources of uncertainty and their corresponding competing propositions through a hierarchy of BMA models that forms a BMA tree. We apply the HBMA to conduct uncertainty analysis on the reconstructed hydrostratigraphic architectures of the Baton Rouge aquifer-fault system, Louisiana. Due to uncertainty in model data, structure, and parameters, multiple possible hydrostratigraphic models are produced and calibrated as base models. The study considers four sources of uncertainty. With respect to data uncertainty, the study considers two calibration data sets. With respect to model structure, the study considers three different variogram models, two geological stationarity assumptions and two fault conceptualizations. The base models are produced following a combinatorial design to allow for uncertainty segregation. Thus, these four uncertain model components with their corresponding competing model propositions result in 24 base models. The results show that the systematic dissection of the uncertain model components along with their corresponding competing propositions allows for detecting the robust model propositions and the major sources of uncertainty.
Zhou, Bo; Konstorum, Anna; Duong, Thao; Tieu, Kinh H.; Wells, William M.; Brown, Gregory G.; Stern, Hal S.; Shahbaba, Babak
2013-01-01
We propose a hierarchical Bayesian model for analyzing multi-site experimental fMRI studies. Our method takes the hierarchical structure of the data (subjects are nested within sites, and there are multiple observations per subject) into account and allows for modeling between-site variation. Using posterior predictive model checking and model…
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Chulkov Vitaliy Olegovich
2012-12-01
Full Text Available This article deals with the infographic modeling of hierarchical management systems exposed to innovative conflicts. The authors analyze the facts that serve as conflict drivers in the construction management environment. The reasons for innovative conflicts include changes in hierarchical structures of management systems, adjustment of workers to new management conditions, changes in the ideology, etc. Conflicts under consideration may involve contradictions between requests placed by customers and the legislation, any risks that may originate from the above contradiction, conflicts arising from any failure to comply with any accepted standards of conduct, etc. One of the main objectives of the theory of hierarchical structures is to develop a model capable of projecting potential innovative conflicts. Models described in the paper reflect dynamic changes in patterns of external impacts within the conflict area. The simplest model element is a monad, or an indivisible set of characteristics of participants at the pre-set level. Interaction between two monads forms a diad. Modeling of situations that involve a different number of monads, diads, resources and impacts can improve methods used to control and manage hierarchical structures in the construction industry. However, in the absence of any mathematical models employed to simulate conflict-related events, processes and situations, any research into, projection and management of interpersonal and group-to-group conflicts are to be performed in the legal environment
An assembly process model based on object-oriented hierarchical time Petri Nets
Wang, Jiapeng; Liu, Shaoli; Liu, Jianhua; Du, Zenghui
2017-04-01
In order to improve the versatility, accuracy and integrity of the assembly process model of complex products, an assembly process model based on object-oriented hierarchical time Petri Nets is presented. A complete assembly process information model including assembly resources, assembly inspection, time, structure and flexible parts is established, and this model describes the static and dynamic data involved in the assembly process. Through the analysis of three-dimensional assembly process information, the assembly information is hierarchically divided from the whole, the local to the details and the subnet model of different levels of object-oriented Petri Nets is established. The communication problem between Petri subnets is solved by using message database, and it reduces the complexity of system modeling effectively. Finally, the modeling process is presented, and a five layer Petri Nets model is established based on the hoisting process of the engine compartment of a wheeled armored vehicle.
A Hierarchical Bayesian Model to Predict Self-Thinning Line for Chinese Fir in Southern China.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Xiongqing Zhang
Full Text Available Self-thinning is a dynamic equilibrium between forest growth and mortality at full site occupancy. Parameters of the self-thinning lines are often confounded by differences across various stand and site conditions. For overcoming the problem of hierarchical and repeated measures, we used hierarchical Bayesian method to estimate the self-thinning line. The results showed that the self-thinning line for Chinese fir (Cunninghamia lanceolata (Lamb.Hook. plantations was not sensitive to the initial planting density. The uncertainty of model predictions was mostly due to within-subject variability. The simulation precision of hierarchical Bayesian method was better than that of stochastic frontier function (SFF. Hierarchical Bayesian method provided a reasonable explanation of the impact of other variables (site quality, soil type, aspect, etc. on self-thinning line, which gave us the posterior distribution of parameters of self-thinning line. The research of self-thinning relationship could be benefit from the use of hierarchical Bayesian method.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Ding, Tao; Li, Cheng; Huang, Can
2017-01-01
function of the slave model for the master model, which reflects the impacts of each slave model. Second, the transmission and distribution networks are decoupled at feeder buses, and all the distribution networks are coordinated by the master reactive power optimization model to achieve the global......In order to solve the reactive power optimization with joint transmission and distribution networks, a hierarchical modeling method is proposed in this paper. It allows the reactive power optimization of transmission and distribution networks to be performed separately, leading to a master......–slave structure and improves traditional centralized modeling methods by alleviating the big data problem in a control center. Specifically, the transmission-distribution-network coordination issue of the hierarchical modeling method is investigated. First, a curve-fitting approach is developed to provide a cost...
Time to failure of hierarchical load-transfer models of fracture
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Vázquez-Prada, M; Gómez, J B; Moreno, Y
1999-01-01
The time to failure, T, of dynamical models of fracture for a hierarchical load-transfer geometry is studied. Using a probabilistic strategy and juxtaposing hierarchical structures of height n, we devise an exact method to compute T, for structures of height n+1. Bounding T, for large n, we are a...... are able to deduce that the time to failure tends to a nonzero value when n tends to infinity. This numerical conclusion is deduced for both power law and exponential breakdown rules....
A test of the hierarchical model of litter decomposition
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Bradford, Mark A.; Veen, G. F.; Bonis, Anne
2017-01-01
Our basic understanding of plant litter decomposition informs the assumptions underlying widely applied soil biogeochemical models, including those embedded in Earth system models. Confidence in projected carbon cycle-climate feedbacks therefore depends on accurate knowledge about the controls...
Raykov, Tenko
2011-01-01
Interval estimation of intraclass correlation coefficients in hierarchical designs is discussed within a latent variable modeling framework. A method accomplishing this aim is outlined, which is applicable in two-level studies where participants (or generally lower-order units) are clustered within higher-order units. The procedure can also be…
Rademaker, Arthur R.; van Minnen, Agnes; Ebberink, Freek; van Zuiden, Mirjam; Hagenaars, Muriel A.; Geuze, Elbert
2012-01-01
As of yet, no collective agreement has been reached regarding the precise factor structure of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Several alternative factor-models have been proposed in the last decades. The current study examined the fit of a hierarchical adaptation of the Simms et al. (2002)
An accessible method for implementing hierarchical models with spatio-temporal abundance data
Ross, Beth E.; Hooten, Melvin B.; Koons, David N.
2012-01-01
A common goal in ecology and wildlife management is to determine the causes of variation in population dynamics over long periods of time and across large spatial scales. Many assumptions must nevertheless be overcome to make appropriate inference about spatio-temporal variation in population dynamics, such as autocorrelation among data points, excess zeros, and observation error in count data. To address these issues, many scientists and statisticians have recommended the use of Bayesian hierarchical models. Unfortunately, hierarchical statistical models remain somewhat difficult to use because of the necessary quantitative background needed to implement them, or because of the computational demands of using Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms to estimate parameters. Fortunately, new tools have recently been developed that make it more feasible for wildlife biologists to fit sophisticated hierarchical Bayesian models (i.e., Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation, ‘INLA’). We present a case study using two important game species in North America, the lesser and greater scaup, to demonstrate how INLA can be used to estimate the parameters in a hierarchical model that decouples observation error from process variation, and accounts for unknown sources of excess zeros as well as spatial and temporal dependence in the data. Ultimately, our goal was to make unbiased inference about spatial variation in population trends over time.
An accessible method for implementing hierarchical models with spatio-temporal abundance data.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Beth E Ross
Full Text Available A common goal in ecology and wildlife management is to determine the causes of variation in population dynamics over long periods of time and across large spatial scales. Many assumptions must nevertheless be overcome to make appropriate inference about spatio-temporal variation in population dynamics, such as autocorrelation among data points, excess zeros, and observation error in count data. To address these issues, many scientists and statisticians have recommended the use of Bayesian hierarchical models. Unfortunately, hierarchical statistical models remain somewhat difficult to use because of the necessary quantitative background needed to implement them, or because of the computational demands of using Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms to estimate parameters. Fortunately, new tools have recently been developed that make it more feasible for wildlife biologists to fit sophisticated hierarchical Bayesian models (i.e., Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation, 'INLA'. We present a case study using two important game species in North America, the lesser and greater scaup, to demonstrate how INLA can be used to estimate the parameters in a hierarchical model that decouples observation error from process variation, and accounts for unknown sources of excess zeros as well as spatial and temporal dependence in the data. Ultimately, our goal was to make unbiased inference about spatial variation in population trends over time.
Testing perturbative results with non-perturbative methods for the Hierarchical model
Meurice, Y.; Oktay, M. B.
2000-01-01
We present non-perturbative methods to calculate accurately the renormalized quantities for Dyson's Hierarchical Model. We apply this method and calculate the critical exponent gamma with 12 and 4 significant digits in the high and low temperature phases, respectively. We report accurate values for universal ratios of amplitudes and preliminary results concerning the comparison with perturbative results.
Putwain, Dave; Deveney, Carolyn
2009-01-01
The aim of this study was to examine an expanded integrative hierarchical model of test emotions and achievement goal orientations in predicting the examination performance of undergraduate students. Achievement goals were theorised as mediating the relationship between test emotions and performance. 120 undergraduate students completed…
Hierarchical models for informing general biomass equations with felled tree data
Brian J. Clough; Matthew B. Russell; Christopher W. Woodall; Grant M. Domke; Philip J. Radtke
2015-01-01
We present a hierarchical framework that uses a large multispecies felled tree database to inform a set of general models for predicting tree foliage biomass, with accompanying uncertainty, within the FIA database. Results suggest significant prediction uncertainty for individual trees and reveal higher errors when predicting foliage biomass for larger trees and for...
Multi-Organ Contribution to the Metabolic Plasma Profile Using Hierarchical Modelling.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Frida Torell
Full Text Available Hierarchical modelling was applied in order to identify the organs that contribute to the levels of metabolites in plasma. Plasma and organ samples from gut, kidney, liver, muscle and pancreas were obtained from mice. The samples were analysed using gas chromatography time-of-flight mass spectrometry (GC TOF-MS at the Swedish Metabolomics centre, Umeå University, Sweden. The multivariate analysis was performed by means of principal component analysis (PCA and orthogonal projections to latent structures (OPLS. The main goal of this study was to investigate how each organ contributes to the metabolic plasma profile. This was performed using hierarchical modelling. Each organ was found to have a unique metabolic profile. The hierarchical modelling showed that the gut, kidney and liver demonstrated the greatest contribution to the metabolic pattern of plasma. For example, we found that metabolites were absorbed in the gut and transported to the plasma. The kidneys excrete branched chain amino acids (BCAAs and fatty acids are transported in the plasma to the muscles and liver. Lactic acid was also found to be transported from the pancreas to plasma. The results indicated that hierarchical modelling can be utilized to identify the organ contribution of unknown metabolites to the metabolic profile of plasma.
Hierarchical stochastic model of terrain subsidence during tunnel excavation
Janda, Tomáš; Šejnoha, Jiří; Šejnoha, Michal
2017-09-01
In this contribution the Bayesian statistical method is applied to assess the expected probability distribution of the terrain subsidence in the course of tunnel excavation. The approach utilizes a number of simplifying assumptions regarding the system kinematics to arrive at a very simple model with just a few degrees of freedom. This deterministic model together with the intrinsic uncertainties of its parameters and measurement inaccuracies are used to formulate the stochastic model which defines a distribution of the predicted values of terrain subsidence. Assuming the measured data to be fixed, the stochastic model thus defines the likelihood function of the model parameters which is directly used for updating their prior distribution. This way the model parameters can be incrementally updated with each excavation step and the prediction of the model refined.
Schermelleh-Engel, Karin; Keith, Nina; Moosbrugger, Helfried; Hodapp, Volker
2004-01-01
An extension of latent state-trait (LST) theory to hierarchical LST models is presented. In hierarchical LST models, the covariances between 2 or more latent traits are explained by a general 3rd-order factor, and the covariances between latent state residuals pertaining to different traits measured on the same measurement occasion are explained…
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
J. P. Werner
2015-03-01
Full Text Available Reconstructions of the late-Holocene climate rely heavily upon proxies that are assumed to be accurately dated by layer counting, such as measurements of tree rings, ice cores, and varved lake sediments. Considerable advances could be achieved if time-uncertain proxies were able to be included within these multiproxy reconstructions, and if time uncertainties were recognized and correctly modeled for proxies commonly treated as free of age model errors. Current approaches for accounting for time uncertainty are generally limited to repeating the reconstruction using each one of an ensemble of age models, thereby inflating the final estimated uncertainty – in effect, each possible age model is given equal weighting. Uncertainties can be reduced by exploiting the inferred space–time covariance structure of the climate to re-weight the possible age models. Here, we demonstrate how Bayesian hierarchical climate reconstruction models can be augmented to account for time-uncertain proxies. Critically, although a priori all age models are given equal probability of being correct, the probabilities associated with the age models are formally updated within the Bayesian framework, thereby reducing uncertainties. Numerical experiments show that updating the age model probabilities decreases uncertainty in the resulting reconstructions, as compared with the current de facto standard of sampling over all age models, provided there is sufficient information from other data sources in the spatial region of the time-uncertain proxy. This approach can readily be generalized to non-layer-counted proxies, such as those derived from marine sediments.
Anders, R; Oravecz, Z; Alario, F-X
2017-07-11
Cognitive process models are fit to observed data to infer how experimental manipulations modify the assumed underlying cognitive process. They are alternatives to descriptive models, which only capture differences on the observed data level, and do not make assumptions about the underlying cognitive process. Process models may require more observations than descriptive models however, and as a consequence, usually fewer conditions can be simultaneously modeled with them. Unfortunately, it is known that the predictive validity of a model may be compromised when fewer experimental conditions are jointly accounted for (e.g., overestimation of predictor effects, or their incorrect assignment). We develop a hierarchical and covaried multiple regression approach to address this problem. Specifically, we show how to map the recurrences of all conditions, participants, items, and/or traits across experimental design cells to the process model parameters. This systematic pooling of information can facilitate parameter estimation. The proposed approach is particularly relevant for multi-factor experimental designs, and for mixture models that parameterize per cell to assess predictor effects. This hierarchical framework provides the capacity to model more conditions jointly to improve parameter recovery at low observation numbers (e.g., using only 1/6 of trials, recovering as well as standard hierarchical Bayesian methods), and to directly model predictor and covariate effects on the process parameters, without the need for post hoc analyses (e.g., ANOVA). An example application to real data is also provided.
A hierarchical causal modeling for large industrial plants supervision
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Dziopa, P.; Leyval, L. [CEA Centre d`Etudes de la Vallee du Rhone, 30 - Marcoule (France). Dept. d`Exploitation du Retraitement et de Demantelement; Gentil, S. [ENSIEG, 38 -Saint-Martin-d`Heres (France)
1994-12-31
A supervision system has to analyse the process current state and the way it will evolve after a modification of the inputs or disturbance. It is proposed to base this analysis on a hierarchy of models, witch differ by the number of involved variables and the abstraction level used to describe their temporal evolution. In a first step, special attention is paid to causal models building, from the most abstract one. Once the hierarchy of models has been build, the most detailed model parameters are estimated. Several models of different abstraction levels can be used for on line prediction. These methods have been applied to a nuclear reprocessing plant. The abstraction level could be chosen on line by the operator. Moreover when an abnormal process behaviour is detected a more detailed model is automatically triggered in order to focus the operator attention on the suspected subsystem. (authors). 11 refs., 11 figs.
Modeling Dynamic Tactical Behaviors in Combatxxi using Hierarchical Task Networks
2014-06-01
action COMBATXXI Combined Arms Analysis Tool for the 21st Century COTA Conquest of the Aegean DOD Department of Defense DS direct support EINSTein...in this work proves useful in advancing the field of modeling and simulation. xxi THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK xxii CHAPTER 1: The Need for...two categories, those “highly realis- tic models that [provided] little insight into basic processes. . . [and those] ultra-minimalist models that
Sparse Event Modeling with Hierarchical Bayesian Kernel Methods
2016-01-05
data, is it equally important to analyze the prediction power of a statistical model if it is going to be used for forecasting purposes. Prediction...Poisson Bayesian Kernel Methods for Modeling Count Data, Computational Statistics and Data Analysis (04 2016) TOTAL: 1 Books Number of Manuscripts...factors into the assessment of a rehabilitation project. Conclusions Bayesian kernel methods are powerful tools in forecasting data. These models make
The application of a hierarchical Bayesian spatiotemporal model for ...
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
The visual validation showed a powerful combination of HBST-GP model with Kriging interpolation technique. The Kriging also produced a good quality of the distribu- tion map of particle flux over the SAA region as indicated by its small variance value. This suggests that the model can be applied in the development of a ...
Xu, Lei; Johnson, Timothy D.; Nichols, Thomas E.; Nee, Derek E.
2010-01-01
Summary The aim of this work is to develop a spatial model for multi-subject fMRI data. There has been extensive work on univariate modeling of each voxel for single and multi-subject data, some work on spatial modeling of single-subject data, and some recent work on spatial modeling of multi-subject data. However, there has been no work on spatial models that explicitly account for inter-subject variability in activation locations. In this work, we use the idea of activation centers and model the inter-subject variability in activation locations directly. Our model is specified in a Bayesian hierarchical frame work which allows us to draw inferences at all levels: the population level, the individual level and the voxel level. We use Gaussian mixtures for the probability that an individual has a particular activation. This helps answer an important question which is not addressed by any of the previous methods: What proportion of subjects had a significant activity in a given region. Our approach incorporates the unknown number of mixture components into the model as a parameter whose posterior distribution is estimated by reversible jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo. We demonstrate our method with a fMRI study of resolving proactive interference and show dramatically better precision of localization with our method relative to the standard mass-univariate method. Although we are motivated by fMRI data, this model could easily be modified to handle other types of imaging data. PMID:19210732
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Kristensen, Anders Ringgaard; Søllested, Thomas Algot
2004-01-01
Recent methodological improvements in replacement models comprising multi-level hierarchical Markov processes and Bayesian updating have hardly been implemented in any replacement model and the aim of this study is to present a sow replacement model that really uses these methodological improveme...
Experiments in Error Propagation within Hierarchal Combat Models
2015-09-01
Bayesian Information Criterion CNO Chief of Naval Operations DOE Design of Experiments DOD Department of Defense MANA Map Aware Non-uniform Automata ...ground up” approach. First, it develops a mission-level model for one on one submarine combat in Map Aware Non-uniform Automata (MANA) simulation, an... Automata (MANA), an agent based simulation that can model the different postures of submarines. It feeds the results from MANA into stochastic
The application of a hierarchical Bayesian spatiotemporal model for ...
Indian Academy of Sciences (India)
30 March 2008 with particle energies as < 30 keV (mep0e1) and < 300 keV ... This suggests that the model can be applied in the development of a Low Earth Orbit (LEO)-Equatorial satellite for monitoring trapped particle radiation hazard.
A hierarchical modeling of information seeking behavior of school ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
The aim of this study was to investigate the information seeking behavior of school teachers in the public primary schools of rural areas of Nigeria and to draw up a model of their information-seeking behavior. A Cross-sectional survey design research was employed to carry out the research. Findings showed that the ...
Hierarchical Model Predictive Control for Sustainable Building Automation
Barbara Mayer; Michaela Killian; Martin Kozek
2017-01-01
A hierarchicalmodel predictive controller (HMPC) is proposed for flexible and sustainable building automation. The implications of a building automation system for sustainability are defined, and model predictive control is introduced as an ideal tool to cover all requirements. The HMPC is presented as a development suitable for the optimization of modern buildings, as well as retrofitting. The performance and flexibility of the HMPC is demonstrated by simulation studies of a modern office bu...
Boos, Moritz; Seer, Caroline; Lange, Florian; Kopp, Bruno
2016-01-01
Cognitive determinants of probabilistic inference were examined using hierarchical Bayesian modeling techniques. A classic urn-ball paradigm served as experimental strategy, involving a factorial two (prior probabilities) by two (likelihoods) design. Five computational models of cognitive processes were compared with the observed behavior. Parameter-free Bayesian posterior probabilities and parameter-free base rate neglect provided inadequate models of probabilistic inference. The introduction of distorted subjective probabilities yielded more robust and generalizable results. A general class of (inverted) S-shaped probability weighting functions had been proposed; however, the possibility of large differences in probability distortions not only across experimental conditions, but also across individuals, seems critical for the model's success. It also seems advantageous to consider individual differences in parameters of probability weighting as being sampled from weakly informative prior distributions of individual parameter values. Thus, the results from hierarchical Bayesian modeling converge with previous results in revealing that probability weighting parameters show considerable task dependency and individual differences. Methodologically, this work exemplifies the usefulness of hierarchical Bayesian modeling techniques for cognitive psychology. Theoretically, human probabilistic inference might be best described as the application of individualized strategic policies for Bayesian belief revision.
Chen, Yongsheng; Persaud, Bhagwant
2014-09-01
Crash modification factors (CMFs) for road safety treatments are developed as multiplicative factors that are used to reflect the expected changes in safety performance associated with changes in highway design and/or the traffic control features. However, current CMFs have methodological drawbacks. For example, variability with application circumstance is not well understood, and, as important, correlation is not addressed when several CMFs are applied multiplicatively. These issues can be addressed by developing safety performance functions (SPFs) with components of crash modification functions (CM-Functions), an approach that includes all CMF related variables, along with others, while capturing quantitative and other effects of factors and accounting for cross-factor correlations. CM-Functions can capture the safety impact of factors through a continuous and quantitative approach, avoiding the problematic categorical analysis that is often used to capture CMF variability. There are two formulations to develop such SPFs with CM-Function components - fully specified models and hierarchical models. Based on sample datasets from two Canadian cities, both approaches are investigated in this paper. While both model formulations yielded promising results and reasonable CM-Functions, the hierarchical model was found to be more suitable in retaining homogeneity of first-level SPFs, while addressing CM-Functions in sub-level modeling. In addition, hierarchical models better capture the correlations between different impact factors. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Statistical modelling of survival data with random effects h-likelihood approach
Ha, Il Do; Lee, Youngjo
2017-01-01
This book provides a groundbreaking introduction to the likelihood inference for correlated survival data via the hierarchical (or h-) likelihood in order to obtain the (marginal) likelihood and to address the computational difficulties in inferences and extensions. The approach presented in the book overcomes shortcomings in the traditional likelihood-based methods for clustered survival data such as intractable integration. The text includes technical materials such as derivations and proofs in each chapter, as well as recently developed software programs in R (“frailtyHL”), while the real-world data examples together with an R package, “frailtyHL” in CRAN, provide readers with useful hands-on tools. Reviewing new developments since the introduction of the h-likelihood to survival analysis (methods for interval estimation of the individual frailty and for variable selection of the fixed effects in the general class of frailty models) and guiding future directions, the book is of interest to research...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Dan WU
2009-06-01
Full Text Available The principal-subordinate hierarchical multi-objective programming model of initial water rights allocation was developed based on the principle of coordinated and sustainable development of different regions and water sectors within a basin. With the precondition of strictly controlling maximum emissions rights, initial water rights were allocated between the first and the second levels of the hierarchy in order to promote fair and coordinated development across different regions of the basin and coordinated and efficient water use across different water sectors, realize the maximum comprehensive benefits to the basin, promote the unity of quantity and quality of initial water rights allocation, and eliminate water conflict across different regions and water sectors. According to interactive decision-making theory, a principal-subordinate hierarchical interactive iterative algorithm based on the satisfaction degree was developed and used to solve the initial water rights allocation model. A case study verified the validity of the model.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Fidel Ernesto Castro Morales
2016-03-01
Full Text Available Abstract Objectives: to propose the use of a Bayesian hierarchical model to study the allometric scaling of the fetoplacental weight ratio, including possible confounders. Methods: data from 26 singleton pregnancies with gestational age at birth between 37 and 42 weeks were analyzed. The placentas were collected immediately after delivery and stored under refrigeration until the time of analysis, which occurred within up to 12 hours. Maternal data were collected from medical records. A Bayesian hierarchical model was proposed and Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation methods were used to obtain samples from distribution a posteriori. Results: the model developed showed a reasonable fit, even allowing for the incorporation of variables and a priori information on the parameters used. Conclusions: new variables can be added to the modelfrom the available code, allowing many possibilities for data analysis and indicating the potential for use in research on the subject.
Hierarchical Model Predictive Control for Sustainable Building Automation
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Barbara Mayer
2017-02-01
Full Text Available A hierarchicalmodel predictive controller (HMPC is proposed for flexible and sustainable building automation. The implications of a building automation system for sustainability are defined, and model predictive control is introduced as an ideal tool to cover all requirements. The HMPC is presented as a development suitable for the optimization of modern buildings, as well as retrofitting. The performance and flexibility of the HMPC is demonstrated by simulation studies of a modern office building, and the perfect interaction with future smart grids is shown.
Hierarchic stochastic modelling applied to intracellular Ca(2+ signals.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Gregor Moenke
Full Text Available Important biological processes like cell signalling and gene expression have noisy components and are very complex at the same time. Mathematical analysis of such systems has often been limited to the study of isolated subsystems, or approximations are used that are difficult to justify. Here we extend a recently published method (Thurley and Falcke, PNAS 2011 which is formulated in observable system configurations instead of molecular transitions. This reduces the number of system states by several orders of magnitude and avoids fitting of kinetic parameters. The method is applied to Ca(2+ signalling. Ca(2+ is a ubiquitous second messenger transmitting information by stochastic sequences of concentration spikes, which arise by coupling of subcellular Ca(2+ release events (puffs. We derive analytical expressions for a mechanistic Ca(2+ model, based on recent data from live cell imaging, and calculate Ca(2+ spike statistics in dependence on cellular parameters like stimulus strength or number of Ca(2+ channels. The new approach substantiates a generic Ca(2+ model, which is a very convenient way to simulate Ca(2+ spike sequences with correct spiking statistics.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Moritz eBoos
2016-05-01
Full Text Available Cognitive determinants of probabilistic inference were examined using hierarchical Bayesian modelling techniques. A classic urn-ball paradigm served as experimental strategy, involving a factorial two (prior probabilities by two (likelihoods design. Five computational models of cognitive processes were compared with the observed behaviour. Parameter-free Bayesian posterior probabilities and parameter-free base rate neglect provided inadequate models of probabilistic inference. The introduction of distorted subjective probabilities yielded more robust and generalizable results. A general class of (inverted S-shaped probability weighting functions had been proposed; however, the possibility of large differences in probability distortions not only across experimental conditions, but also across individuals, seems critical for the model’s success. It also seems advantageous to consider individual differences in parameters of probability weighting as being sampled from weakly informative prior distributions of individual parameter values. Thus, the results from hierarchical Bayesian modelling converge with previous results in revealing that probability weighting parameters show considerable task dependency and individual differences. Methodologically, this work exemplifies the usefulness of hierarchical Bayesian modelling techniques for cognitive psychology. Theoretically, human probabilistic inference might be best described as the application of individualized strategic policies for Bayesian belief revision.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Stahlhut, Carsten; Mørup, Morten; Winther, Ole
2011-01-01
surface, and electrode positions. We first present a hierarchical Bayesian framework for EEG source localization that jointly performs source and forward model reconstruction (SOFOMORE). Secondly, we evaluate the SOFOMORE approach by comparison with source reconstruction methods that use fixed forward......We present an approach to handle forward model uncertainty for EEG source reconstruction. A stochastic forward model representation is motivated by the many random contributions to the path from sources to measurements including the tissue conductivity distribution, the geometry of the cortical...... models. Analysis of simulated and real EEG data provide evidence that reconstruction of the forward model leads to improved source estimates....
Sun, Kaiqiong; Udupa, Jayaram K; Odhner, Dewey; Tong, Yubing; Zhao, Liming; Torigian, Drew A
2016-03-01
In an attempt to overcome several hurdles that exist in organ segmentation approaches, the authors previously described a general automatic anatomy recognition (AAR) methodology for segmenting all major organs in multiple body regions body-wide [J. K. Udupa et al., "Body-wide hierarchical fuzzy modeling, recognition, and delineation of anatomy in medical images," Med. Image Anal. 18(5), 752-771 (2014)]. That approach utilized fuzzy modeling strategies, a hierarchical organization of organs, and divided the segmentation task into a recognition step to localize organs which was then followed by a delineation step to demarcate the boundary of organs. It achieved speed and accuracy without employing image/object registration which is commonly utilized in many reported methods, particularly atlas-based. In this paper, our aim is to study how registration may influence performance of the AAR approach. By tightly coupling the recognition and delineation steps, by performing registration in the hierarchical order of the organs, and through several object-specific refinements, the authors demonstrate that improved accuracy for recognition and delineation can be achieved by judicial use of image/object registration. The presented approach consists of three processes: model building, hierarchical recognition, and delineation. Labeled binary images for each organ are registered and aligned into a 3D fuzzy set representing the fuzzy shape model for the organ. The hierarchical relation and mean location relation between different organs are captured in the model. The gray intensity distributions of the corresponding regions of the organ in the original image are also recorded in the model. Following the hierarchical structure and location relation, the fuzzy shape model of different organs is registered to the given target image to achieve object recognition. A fuzzy connectedness delineation method is then employed to obtain the final segmentation result of organs with seed
Modeling and numerical investigations for hierarchical pattern formation in desiccation cracking
Hirobe, Sayako; Oguni, Kenji
2017-11-01
Desiccation cracking and its pattern formation are widely observed in nature. The network of the surface cracks forms polygonal cells with typical size. This crack pattern is not formed in a simultaneous manner, instead, formed in a sequential and hierarchical manner. The strain energy accumulated by the heterogeneous drying shrinkage strain is systematically released by the cracks. In this sense, desiccation cracking phenomenon can be regarded as a typical example of the pattern formation in the dynamical system with dissipation. We propose a mathematical model for the pattern formation in desiccation cracking with emphasis on the emergence of the typical length scale with the typical geometry resulting from the hierarchical cell tessellation. The desiccation crack phenomenon is modeled as the coupling of desiccation, deformation, and fracture. This coupling model is numerically solved by weakly coupled analysis of the desiccation process and the deformation/fracture process. The basic features of the desiccation crack pattern and its formation process reproduced by the numerical analysis show reasonable agreement with experimental observations. This agreement implies that the proposed coupling model properly addresses the fundamental mechanism for the hierarchical pattern formation in desiccation cracking.
MacCann, Carolyn; Joseph, Dana L; Newman, Daniel A; Roberts, Richard D
2014-04-01
This article examines the status of emotional intelligence (EI) within the structure of human cognitive abilities. To evaluate whether EI is a 2nd-stratum factor of intelligence, data were fit to a series of structural models involving 3 indicators each for fluid intelligence, crystallized intelligence, quantitative reasoning, visual processing, and broad retrieval ability, as well as 2 indicators each for emotion perception, emotion understanding, and emotion management. Unidimensional, multidimensional, hierarchical, and bifactor solutions were estimated in a sample of 688 college and community college students. Results suggest adequate fit for 2 models: (a) an oblique 8-factor model (with 5 traditional cognitive ability factors and 3 EI factors) and (b) a hierarchical solution (with cognitive g at the highest level and EI representing a 2nd-stratum factor that loads onto g at λ = .80). The acceptable relative fit of the hierarchical model confirms the notion that EI is a group factor of cognitive ability, marking the expression of intelligence in the emotion domain. The discussion proposes a possible expansion of Cattell-Horn-Carroll theory to include EI as a 2nd-stratum factor of similar standing to factors such as fluid intelligence and visual processing.
The Atmospheric Circulation of Hot Jupiters: a Hierarchical Modeling Approach
Komacek, Thaddeus D.; Showman, Adam P.
2017-10-01
numerically simulated vertical mixing rates with our analytic theory. As a result, one can use our theoretically predicted vertical mixing rates as input for one-dimensional models of cloud formation and disequilibrium chemistry in hot Jupiter atmospheres.
On hierarchical models for visual recognition and learning of objects, scenes, and activities
Spehr, Jens
2015-01-01
In many computer vision applications, objects have to be learned and recognized in images or image sequences. This book presents new probabilistic hierarchical models that allow an efficient representation of multiple objects of different categories, scales, rotations, and views. The idea is to exploit similarities between objects and object parts in order to share calculations and avoid redundant information. Furthermore inference approaches for fast and robust detection are presented. These new approaches combine the idea of compositional and similarity hierarchies and overcome limitations of previous methods. Besides classical object recognition the book shows the use for detection of human poses in a project for gait analysis. The use of activity detection is presented for the design of environments for ageing, to identify activities and behavior patterns in smart homes. In a presented project for parking spot detection using an intelligent vehicle, the proposed approaches are used to hierarchically model...
A hierarchical lattice spring model to simulate the mechanics of 2-D materials-based composites
Brely, Lucas; Bosia, Federico; Pugno, Nicola
2015-07-01
In the field of engineering materials, strength and toughness are typically two mutually exclusive properties. Structural biological materials such as bone, tendon or dentin have resolved this conflict and show unprecedented damage tolerance, toughness and strength levels. The common feature of these materials is their hierarchical heterogeneous structure, which contributes to increased energy dissipation before failure occurring at different scale levels. These structural properties are the key to exceptional bioinspired material mechanical properties, in particular for nanocomposites. Here, we develop a numerical model in order to simulate the mechanisms involved in damage progression and energy dissipation at different size scales in nano- and macro-composites, which depend both on the heterogeneity of the material and on the type of hierarchical structure. Both these aspects have been incorporated into a 2-dimensional model based on a Lattice Spring Model, accounting for geometrical nonlinearities and including statistically-based fracture phenomena. The model has been validated by comparing numerical results to continuum and fracture mechanics results as well as finite elements simulations, and then employed to study how structural aspects impact on hierarchical composite material properties. Results obtained with the numerical code highlight the dependence of stress distributions on matrix properties and reinforcement dispersion, geometry and properties, and how failure of sacrificial elements is directly involved in the damage tolerance of the material. Thanks to the rapidly developing field of nanocomposite manufacture, it is already possible to artificially create materials with multi-scale hierarchical reinforcements. The developed code could be a valuable support in the design and optimization of these advanced materials, drawing inspiration and going beyond biological materials with exceptional mechanical properties.
A hierarchical lattice spring model to simulate the mechanics of 2-D materials-based composites
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Lucas eBrely
2015-07-01
Full Text Available In the field of engineering materials, strength and toughness are typically two mutually exclusive properties. Structural biological materials such as bone, tendon or dentin have resolved this conflict and show unprecedented damage tolerance, toughness and strength levels. The common feature of these materials is their hierarchical heterogeneous structure, which contributes to increased energy dissipation before failure occurring at different scale levels. These structural properties are the key to exceptional bioinspired material mechanical properties, in particular for nanocomposites. Here, we develop a numerical model in order to simulate the mechanisms involved in damage progression and energy dissipation at different size scales in nano- and macro-composites, which depend both on the heterogeneity of the material and on the type of hierarchical structure. Both these aspects have been incorporated into a 2-dimensional model based on a Lattice Spring Model, accounting for geometrical nonlinearities and including statistically-based fracture phenomena. The model has been validated by comparing numerical results to continuum and fracture mechanics results as well as finite elements simulations, and then employed to study how structural aspects impact on hierarchical composite material properties. Results obtained with the numerical code highlight the dependence of stress distributions on matrix properties and reinforcement dispersion, geometry and properties, and how failure of sacrificial elements is directly involved in the damage tolerance of the material. Thanks to the rapidly developing field of nanocomposite manufacture, it is already possible to artificially create materials with multi-scale hierarchical reinforcements. The developed code could be a valuable support in the design and optimization of these advanced materials, drawing inspiration and going beyond biological materials with exceptional mechanical properties.
Comparison of Cox and Gray's survival models in severe sepsis
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Kasal, Jan; Andersen, Zorana Jovanovic; Clermont, Gilles
2004-01-01
Although survival is traditionally modeled using Cox proportional hazards modeling, this approach may be inappropriate in sepsis, in which the proportional hazards assumption does not hold. Newer, more flexible models, such as Gray's model, may be more appropriate.......Although survival is traditionally modeled using Cox proportional hazards modeling, this approach may be inappropriate in sepsis, in which the proportional hazards assumption does not hold. Newer, more flexible models, such as Gray's model, may be more appropriate....
Pusuluri, Sai Teja
Energy landscapes are often used as metaphors for phenomena in biology, social sciences and finance. Different methods have been implemented in the past for the construction of energy landscapes. Neural network models based on spin glass physics provide an excellent mathematical framework for the construction of energy landscapes. This framework uses a minimal number of parameters and constructs the landscape using data from the actual phenomena. In the past neural network models were used to mimic the storage and retrieval process of memories (patterns) in the brain. With advances in the field now, these models are being used in machine learning, deep learning and modeling of complex phenomena. Most of the past literature focuses on increasing the storage capacity and stability of stored patterns in the network but does not study these models from a modeling perspective or an energy landscape perspective. This dissertation focuses on neural network models both from a modeling perspective and from an energy landscape perspective. I firstly show how the cellular interconversion phenomenon can be modeled as a transition between attractor states on an epigenetic landscape constructed using neural network models. The model allows the identification of a reaction coordinate of cellular interconversion by analyzing experimental and simulation time course data. Monte Carlo simulations of the model show that the initial phase of cellular interconversion is a Poisson process and the later phase of cellular interconversion is a deterministic process. Secondly, I explore the static features of landscapes generated using neural network models, such as sizes of basins of attraction and densities of metastable states. The simulation results show that the static landscape features are strongly dependent on the correlation strength and correlation structure between patterns. Using different hierarchical structures of the correlation between patterns affects the landscape features
A Hierarchical Predictive Coding Model of Object Recognition in Natural Images.
Spratling, M W
2017-01-01
Predictive coding has been proposed as a model of the hierarchical perceptual inference process performed in the cortex. However, results demonstrating that predictive coding is capable of performing the complex inference required to recognise objects in natural images have not previously been presented. This article proposes a hierarchical neural network based on predictive coding for performing visual object recognition. This network is applied to the tasks of categorising hand-written digits, identifying faces, and locating cars in images of street scenes. It is shown that image recognition can be performed with tolerance to position, illumination, size, partial occlusion, and within-category variation. The current results, therefore, provide the first practical demonstration that predictive coding (at least the particular implementation of predictive coding used here; the PC/BC-DIM algorithm) is capable of performing accurate visual object recognition.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Mantzouni, Irene; Sørensen, Helle; O'Hara, Robert B.
2010-01-01
Understanding how temperature affects cod (Gadus morhua) ecology is important for forecasting how populations will develop as climate changes in future. The effects of spawning-season temperature and habitat size on cod recruitment dynamics have been investigated across the North Atlantic. Ricker...... and Beverton and Holt stock–recruitment (SR) models were extended by applying hierarchical methods, mixed-effects models, and Bayesian inference to incorporate the influence of these ecosystem factors on model parameters representing cod maximum reproductive rate and carrying capacity. We identified...
Sharma, R; Liermann, M
2010-11-01
The high variability in survival over the past three decades of north-west Pacific Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha is summarized for 24 stocks and analysed using hierarchical Bayesian models. Results from a simple model indicate that recruitment anomalies appear to be correlated in time and space. A simple model with a covariate based on basin-scale effects (Pacific Decadal Oscillation and El Niño Southern Oscillation) and local-scale effects (sea surface temperature, SST anomaly) was introduced to explain this variability. The model still exhibited residual patterns that were removed when a random-walk component was added to the model. The analysis indicates that recruitment is negatively related to SST anomaly for all stocks and the effect of basin-scale variables is negligible. The effect of climate over the next century is expected to result in estimated recruitment declining by an average of 13% for O. tshawytscha stocks coastwide. © 2010 The Authors. Journal of Fish Biology © 2010 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.
Hierarchical graphs for better annotations of rule-based models of biochemical systems
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Hu, Bin [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Hlavacek, William [Los Alamos National Laboratory
2009-01-01
In the graph-based formalism of the BioNetGen language (BNGL), graphs are used to represent molecules, with a colored vertex representing a component of a molecule, a vertex label representing the internal state of a component, and an edge representing a bond between components. Components of a molecule share the same color. Furthermore, graph-rewriting rules are used to represent molecular interactions, with a rule that specifies addition (removal) of an edge representing a class of association (dissociation) reactions and with a rule that specifies a change of vertex label representing a class of reactions that affect the internal state of a molecular component. A set of rules comprises a mathematical/computational model that can be used to determine, through various means, the system-level dynamics of molecular interactions in a biochemical system. Here, for purposes of model annotation, we propose an extension of BNGL that involves the use of hierarchical graphs to represent (1) relationships among components and subcomponents of molecules and (2) relationships among classes of reactions defined by rules. We illustrate how hierarchical graphs can be used to naturally document the structural organization of the functional components and subcomponents of two proteins: the protein tyrosine kinase Lck and the T cell receptor (TCR)/CD3 complex. Likewise, we illustrate how hierarchical graphs can be used to document the similarity of two related rules for kinase-catalyzed phosphorylation of a protein substrate. We also demonstrate how a hierarchical graph representing a protein can be encoded in an XML-based format.
Configurable product design considering the transition of multi-hierarchical models
Ren, Bin; Qiu, Lemiao; Zhang, Shuyou; Tan, Jianrong; Cheng, Jin
2013-03-01
The current research of configurable product design mainly focuses on how to convert a predefined set of components into a valid set of product structures. With the scale and complexity of configurable products increasing, the interdependencies between customer demands and product structures grow up as well. The result is that existing product structures fails to satisfy the individual customer requirements and hence product variants are needed. This paper is aimed to build a bridge between customer demands and product structures in order to make demand-driven fast response design feasible. First of all, multi-hierarchical models of configurable product design are established with customer demand model, technical requirement model and product structure model. Then, the transition of multi-hierarchical models among customer demand model, technical requirement model and product structure model is solved with fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) and the algorithm of multi-level matching. Finally, optimal structure according to the customer demands is obtained with the calculation of Euclidean distance and similarity of some cases. In practice, the configuration design of a clamping unit of injection molding machine successfully performs an optimal search strategy for the product variants with reasonable satisfaction to individual customer demands. The proposed method can automatically generate a configuration design with better alternatives for each product structures, and shorten the time of finding the configuration of a product.
Hierarchical Agent-Based Integrated Modelling Approach for Microgrids with Adoption of EVs and HRES
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Peng Han
2014-01-01
Full Text Available The large adoption of electric vehicles (EVs, hybrid renewable energy systems (HRESs, and the increasing of the loads shall bring significant challenges to the microgrid. The methodology to model microgrid with high EVs and HRESs penetrations is the key to EVs adoption assessment and optimized HRESs deployment. However, considering the complex interactions of the microgrid containing massive EVs and HRESs, any previous single modelling approaches are insufficient. Therefore in this paper, the methodology named Hierarchical Agent-based Integrated Modelling Approach (HAIMA is proposed. With the effective integration of the agent-based modelling with other advanced modelling approaches, the proposed approach theoretically contributes to a new microgrid model hierarchically constituted by microgrid management layer, component layer, and event layer. Then the HAIMA further links the key parameters and interconnects them to achieve the interactions of the whole model. Furthermore, HAIMA practically contributes to a comprehensive microgrid operation system, through which the assessment of the proposed model and the impact of the EVs adoption are achieved. Simulations show that the proposed HAIMA methodology will be beneficial for the microgrid study and EV’s operation assessment and shall be further utilized for the energy management, electricity consumption prediction, the EV scheduling control, and HRES deployment optimization.
HDDM: Hierarchical Bayesian estimation of the Drift-Diffusion Model in Python
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Thomas V Wiecki
2013-08-01
Full Text Available The diffusion model is a commonly used tool to infer latent psychological processes underlying decision making, and to link them to neural mechanisms based on reaction times. Although efficient open source software has been made available to quantitatively fit the model to data, current estimation methods require an abundance of reaction time measurements to recover meaningful parameters, and only provide point estimates of each parameter. In contrast, hierarchical Bayesian parameter estimation methods are useful for enhancing statistical power, allowing for simultaneous estimation of individual subject parameters and the group distribution that they are drawn from, while also providing measures of uncertainty in these parameters in the posterior distribution. Here, we present a novel Python-based toolbox called HDDM (hierarchical drift diffusion model, which allows fast and flexible estimation of the the drift-diffusion model and the related linear ballistic accumulator model. HDDM requires fewer data per subject / condition than non-hierarchical method, allows for full Bayesian data analysis, and can handle outliers in the data. Finally, HDDM supports the estimation of how trial-by-trial measurements (e.g. fMRI influence decision making parameters. This paper will first describe the theoretical background of drift-diffusion model and Bayesian inference. We then illustrate usage of the toolbox on a real-world data set from our lab. Finally, parameter recovery studies show that HDDM beats alternative fitting methods like the chi-quantile method as well as maximum likelihood estimation. The software and documentation can be downloaded at: http://ski.clps.brown.edu/hddm_docs
On the advantages of exploiting the hierarchical structure of astrodynamical models
Dei Tos, Diogene Alessandro; Topputo, Francesco
2017-07-01
In this paper an algorithm is developed that combines the capabilities and advantages of several different astrodynamical models of increasing complexity. Splitting these models in a strict hierarchical order yields a clearer grasp on what is available. With the effort of developing a comprehensive model overhead, the equations for the spacecraft motion in simpler models can be readily obtained as particular cases. The proposed algorithm embeds the circular and elliptic restricted three-body problems, the four-body bicircular and concentric models, an averaged n-body model, and, at the top hierarchic ladder, the full ephemeris SPICE-based restricted n-body problem. The equations of motion are reduced to the assignment of 13 time-varying coefficients, which multiply the states and the gravitational potential to reproduce the proper vector field. This approach yields an efficient and quick way to check solutions for different dynamics and parameters. We show that in bottom-up applications, a gradual increase of model complexity benefits accuracy, the chances of success and the convergence rate of a continuation algorithm. Case studies are simple periodic orbits and low-energy transfers.
Maclaren, Oliver J; Parker, Aimée; Pin, Carmen; Carding, Simon R; Watson, Alastair J M; Fletcher, Alexander G; Byrne, Helen M; Maini, Philip K
2017-07-01
Our work addresses two key challenges, one biological and one methodological. First, we aim to understand how proliferation and cell migration rates in the intestinal epithelium are related under healthy, damaged (Ara-C treated) and recovering conditions, and how these relations can be used to identify mechanisms of repair and regeneration. We analyse new data, presented in more detail in a companion paper, in which BrdU/IdU cell-labelling experiments were performed under these respective conditions. Second, in considering how to more rigorously process these data and interpret them using mathematical models, we use a probabilistic, hierarchical approach. This provides a best-practice approach for systematically modelling and understanding the uncertainties that can otherwise undermine the generation of reliable conclusions-uncertainties in experimental measurement and treatment, difficult-to-compare mathematical models of underlying mechanisms, and unknown or unobserved parameters. Both spatially discrete and continuous mechanistic models are considered and related via hierarchical conditional probability assumptions. We perform model checks on both in-sample and out-of-sample datasets and use them to show how to test possible model improvements and assess the robustness of our conclusions. We conclude, for the present set of experiments, that a primarily proliferation-driven model suffices to predict labelled cell dynamics over most time-scales.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Oliver J Maclaren
2017-07-01
Full Text Available Our work addresses two key challenges, one biological and one methodological. First, we aim to understand how proliferation and cell migration rates in the intestinal epithelium are related under healthy, damaged (Ara-C treated and recovering conditions, and how these relations can be used to identify mechanisms of repair and regeneration. We analyse new data, presented in more detail in a companion paper, in which BrdU/IdU cell-labelling experiments were performed under these respective conditions. Second, in considering how to more rigorously process these data and interpret them using mathematical models, we use a probabilistic, hierarchical approach. This provides a best-practice approach for systematically modelling and understanding the uncertainties that can otherwise undermine the generation of reliable conclusions-uncertainties in experimental measurement and treatment, difficult-to-compare mathematical models of underlying mechanisms, and unknown or unobserved parameters. Both spatially discrete and continuous mechanistic models are considered and related via hierarchical conditional probability assumptions. We perform model checks on both in-sample and out-of-sample datasets and use them to show how to test possible model improvements and assess the robustness of our conclusions. We conclude, for the present set of experiments, that a primarily proliferation-driven model suffices to predict labelled cell dynamics over most time-scales.
A conceptual modeling framework for discrete event simulation using hierarchical control structures.
Furian, N; O'Sullivan, M; Walker, C; Vössner, S; Neubacher, D
2015-08-01
Conceptual Modeling (CM) is a fundamental step in a simulation project. Nevertheless, it is only recently that structured approaches towards the definition and formulation of conceptual models have gained importance in the Discrete Event Simulation (DES) community. As a consequence, frameworks and guidelines for applying CM to DES have emerged and discussion of CM for DES is increasing. However, both the organization of model-components and the identification of behavior and system control from standard CM approaches have shortcomings that limit CM's applicability to DES. Therefore, we discuss the different aspects of previous CM frameworks and identify their limitations. Further, we present the Hierarchical Control Conceptual Modeling framework that pays more attention to the identification of a models' system behavior, control policies and dispatching routines and their structured representation within a conceptual model. The framework guides the user step-by-step through the modeling process and is illustrated by a worked example.
Paulus, Daniel J; Talkovsky, Alexander M; Heggeness, Luke F; Norton, Peter J
2015-01-01
Negative affectivity (NA) has been linked to anxiety and depression (DEP). Identifying the common factors between anxiety and DEP is important when explaining their overlap and comorbidity. However, general factors such as NA tend to have differential relationships with different disorders, suggesting the need to identify mediators in order to explicate these relationships. The current study tests a theoretically and empirically derived hierarchical model of emotional disorders including both a general factor (NA) and transdiagnostic risk factors [anxiety sensitivity (AS) and intolerance of uncertainty (IoU)] using structural equation modeling. AS was tested as a mid-level factor between NA and panic disorder/agoraphobia, while IoU was tested as a mid-level factor between NA and social phobia, generalized anxiety disorder, obsessive-compulsive disorder, and DEP. Data from 642 clinical outpatients with a heterogeneous presentation of emotional disorders were available for analysis. The hierarchical model fits the data adequately. Moreover, while a simplified model removing AS and IoU fits the data well, it resulted in a significant loss of information for all latent disorder constructs. Data were unavailable to estimate post-traumatic stress disorder or specific phobias. Future work will need to extend to other emotional disorders. This study demonstrates the importance of both general factors that link disorders together and semi-specific transdiagnostic factors partially explaining their heterogeneity. Including these mid-level factors in hierarchical models of psychopathology can help account for additional variance and help to clarify the relationship between disorder constructs and NA.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Andrew Cron
Full Text Available Flow cytometry is the prototypical assay for multi-parameter single cell analysis, and is essential in vaccine and biomarker research for the enumeration of antigen-specific lymphocytes that are often found in extremely low frequencies (0.1% or less. Standard analysis of flow cytometry data relies on visual identification of cell subsets by experts, a process that is subjective and often difficult to reproduce. An alternative and more objective approach is the use of statistical models to identify cell subsets of interest in an automated fashion. Two specific challenges for automated analysis are to detect extremely low frequency event subsets without biasing the estimate by pre-processing enrichment, and the ability to align cell subsets across multiple data samples for comparative analysis. In this manuscript, we develop hierarchical modeling extensions to the Dirichlet Process Gaussian Mixture Model (DPGMM approach we have previously described for cell subset identification, and show that the hierarchical DPGMM (HDPGMM naturally generates an aligned data model that captures both commonalities and variations across multiple samples. HDPGMM also increases the sensitivity to extremely low frequency events by sharing information across multiple samples analyzed simultaneously. We validate the accuracy and reproducibility of HDPGMM estimates of antigen-specific T cells on clinically relevant reference peripheral blood mononuclear cell (PBMC samples with known frequencies of antigen-specific T cells. These cell samples take advantage of retrovirally TCR-transduced T cells spiked into autologous PBMC samples to give a defined number of antigen-specific T cells detectable by HLA-peptide multimer binding. We provide open source software that can take advantage of both multiple processors and GPU-acceleration to perform the numerically-demanding computations. We show that hierarchical modeling is a useful probabilistic approach that can provide a
Alexander, William H; Brown, Joshua W
2015-11-01
Anterior cingulate and dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (ACC and dlPFC, respectively) are core components of the cognitive control network. Activation of these regions is routinely observed in tasks that involve monitoring the external environment and maintaining information in order to generate appropriate responses. Despite the ubiquity of studies reporting coactivation of these two regions, a consensus on how they interact to support cognitive control has yet to emerge. In this letter, we present a new hypothesis and computational model of ACC and dlPFC. The error representation hypothesis states that multidimensional error signals generated by ACC in response to surprising outcomes are used to train representations of expected error in dlPFC, which are then associated with relevant task stimuli. Error representations maintained in dlPFC are in turn used to modulate predictive activity in ACC in order to generate better estimates of the likely outcomes of actions. We formalize the error representation hypothesis in a new computational model based on our previous model of ACC. The hierarchical error representation (HER) model of ACC/dlPFC suggests a mechanism by which hierarchically organized layers within ACC and dlPFC interact in order to solve sophisticated cognitive tasks. In a series of simulations, we demonstrate the ability of the HER model to autonomously learn to perform structured tasks in a manner comparable to human performance, and we show that the HER model outperforms current deep learning networks by an order of magnitude.
Multi-scale hierarchical approach for parametric mapping: assessment on multi-compartmental models.
Rizzo, G; Turkheimer, F E; Bertoldo, A
2013-02-15
This paper investigates a new hierarchical method to apply basis function to mono- and multi-compartmental models (Hierarchical-Basis Function Method, H-BFM) at a voxel level. This method identifies the parameters of the compartmental model in its nonlinearized version, integrating information derived at the region of interest (ROI) level by segmenting the cerebral volume based on anatomical definition or functional clustering. We present the results obtained by using a two tissue-four rate constant model with two different tracers ([(11)C]FLB457 and [carbonyl-(11)C]WAY100635), one of the most complex models used in receptor studies, especially at the voxel level. H-BFM is robust and its application on both [(11)C]FLB457 and [carbonyl-(11)C]WAY100635 allows accurate and precise parameter estimates, good quality parametric maps and a low percentage of voxels out of physiological bound (modeling at the voxel level. In particular, different from other proposed approaches, this method can also be used when the linearization of the model is not appropriate. We expect that applying it to clinical data will generate reliable parametric maps. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Sui, Tan; Sandholzer, Michael A; Baimpas, Nikolaos; Dolbnya, Igor P; Landini, Gabriel; Korsunsky, Alexander M
2013-11-01
Human enamel is a hierarchical mineralized tissue with a two-level composite structure. Few studies have focused on the structure-mechanical property relationship and its link to the multi-scale architecture of human enamel, whereby the response to mechanical loading is affected not only by the rod distribution at micro-scale, but also strongly influenced by the mineral crystallite shape, and spatial arrangement and orientation. In this study, two complementary synchrotron X-ray diffraction techniques, wide and small angle X-ray scattering (WAXS/SAXS) were used to obtain multi-scale quantitative information about the structure and deformation response of human enamel to in situ uniaxial compressive loading. The apparent modulus was determined linking the external load and the internal strain in hydroxyapatite (HAp) crystallites. An improved multi-scale Eshelby model is proposed taking into account the two-level hierarchical structure of enamel. This framework has been used to analyse the experimental data for the elastic lattice strain evolution within the HAp crystals. The achieved agreement between the model prediction and experiment along the loading direction validates the model and suggests that the new multi-scale approach reasonably captures the structure-property relationship for the human enamel. The ability of the model to predict multi-directional strain components is also evaluated by comparison with the measurements. The results are useful for understanding the intricate relationship between the hierarchical structure and the mechanical properties of enamel, and for making predictions of the effect of structural alterations that may occur due to the disease or treatment on the performance of dental tissues and their artificial replacements. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
A hierarchical bayesian model to quantify uncertainty of stream water temperature forecasts.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Guillaume Bal
Full Text Available Providing generic and cost effective modelling approaches to reconstruct and forecast freshwater temperature using predictors as air temperature and water discharge is a prerequisite to understanding ecological processes underlying the impact of water temperature and of global warming on continental aquatic ecosystems. Using air temperature as a simple linear predictor of water temperature can lead to significant bias in forecasts as it does not disentangle seasonality and long term trends in the signal. Here, we develop an alternative approach based on hierarchical Bayesian statistical time series modelling of water temperature, air temperature and water discharge using seasonal sinusoidal periodic signals and time varying means and amplitudes. Fitting and forecasting performances of this approach are compared with that of simple linear regression between water and air temperatures using i an emotive simulated example, ii application to three French coastal streams with contrasting bio-geographical conditions and sizes. The time series modelling approach better fit data and does not exhibit forecasting bias in long term trends contrary to the linear regression. This new model also allows for more accurate forecasts of water temperature than linear regression together with a fair assessment of the uncertainty around forecasting. Warming of water temperature forecast by our hierarchical Bayesian model was slower and more uncertain than that expected with the classical regression approach. These new forecasts are in a form that is readily usable in further ecological analyses and will allow weighting of outcomes from different scenarios to manage climate change impacts on freshwater wildlife.
Forbush, Kelsie T; Hagan, Kelsey E; Kite, Benjamin A; Chapa, Danielle A N; Bohrer, Brittany K; Gould, Sara R
2017-11-01
Several problems with the classification and diagnosis of eating disorders (EDs) have been identified, including proliferation of 'other specified' diagnoses, within-disorder heterogeneity, and frequent diagnostic migration over time. Beyond problems within EDs, past research suggested that EDs fit better in a spectrum of internalizing psychopathology (characterized by mood and anxiety disorders) than in a separate diagnostic class. To develop a transdiagnostic, hierarchical-dimensional model relevant to ED psychopathology that: 1) reduces diagnostic heterogeneity, 2) includes important dimensions of internalizing psychopathology that are often excluded from ED diagnostic models, and 3) predicts clinical impairment. Goldberg's (2006) method and exploratory structural equation modeling were used to identify a hierarchical model of internalizing in community-recruited adults with EDs (N=207). The lowest level of the hierarchy was characterized by 15 factors that defined specific aspects of eating, mood, and anxiety disorders. At the two-factor level, Internalizing bifurcated into Distress (low well-being, body dissatisfaction, suicidality, dysphoria, ill temper, traumatic intrusions) and Fear-Avoidance (claustrophobia, social avoidance, panic symptoms, dietary restricting, excessive exercise, and compulsions). Results showed that the lowest level of the hierarchy predicted 67.7% of the variance in clinical impairment. In contrast, DSM eating, mood, and anxiety disorders combined predicted 10.6% of the variance in impairment secondary to an ED. The current classification model represents an improvement over traditional nosologies for predicting clinically relevant outcomes for EDs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
A hierarchical bayesian model to quantify uncertainty of stream water temperature forecasts.
Bal, Guillaume; Rivot, Etienne; Baglinière, Jean-Luc; White, Jonathan; Prévost, Etienne
2014-01-01
Providing generic and cost effective modelling approaches to reconstruct and forecast freshwater temperature using predictors as air temperature and water discharge is a prerequisite to understanding ecological processes underlying the impact of water temperature and of global warming on continental aquatic ecosystems. Using air temperature as a simple linear predictor of water temperature can lead to significant bias in forecasts as it does not disentangle seasonality and long term trends in the signal. Here, we develop an alternative approach based on hierarchical Bayesian statistical time series modelling of water temperature, air temperature and water discharge using seasonal sinusoidal periodic signals and time varying means and amplitudes. Fitting and forecasting performances of this approach are compared with that of simple linear regression between water and air temperatures using i) an emotive simulated example, ii) application to three French coastal streams with contrasting bio-geographical conditions and sizes. The time series modelling approach better fit data and does not exhibit forecasting bias in long term trends contrary to the linear regression. This new model also allows for more accurate forecasts of water temperature than linear regression together with a fair assessment of the uncertainty around forecasting. Warming of water temperature forecast by our hierarchical Bayesian model was slower and more uncertain than that expected with the classical regression approach. These new forecasts are in a form that is readily usable in further ecological analyses and will allow weighting of outcomes from different scenarios to manage climate change impacts on freshwater wildlife.
A Hierarchical Feature Extraction Model for Multi-Label Mechanical Patent Classification
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jie Hu
2018-01-01
Full Text Available Various studies have focused on feature extraction methods for automatic patent classification in recent years. However, most of these approaches are based on the knowledge from experts in related domains. Here we propose a hierarchical feature extraction model (HFEM for multi-label mechanical patent classification, which is able to capture both local features of phrases as well as global and temporal semantics. First, a n-gram feature extractor based on convolutional neural networks (CNNs is designed to extract salient local lexical-level features. Next, a long dependency feature extraction model based on the bidirectional long–short-term memory (BiLSTM neural network model is proposed to capture sequential correlations from higher-level sequence representations. Then the HFEM algorithm and its hierarchical feature extraction architecture are detailed. We establish the training, validation and test datasets, containing 72,532, 18,133, and 2679 mechanical patent documents, respectively, and then check the performance of HFEMs. Finally, we compared the results of the proposed HFEM and three other single neural network models, namely CNN, long–short-term memory (LSTM, and BiLSTM. The experimental results indicate that our proposed HFEM outperforms the other compared models in both precision and recall.
Hierarchical spatial models for predicting pygmy rabbit distribution and relative abundance
Wilson, T.L.; Odei, J.B.; Hooten, M.B.; Edwards, T.C.
2010-01-01
Conservationists routinely use species distribution models to plan conservation, restoration and development actions, while ecologists use them to infer process from pattern. These models tend to work well for common or easily observable species, but are of limited utility for rare and cryptic species. This may be because honest accounting of known observation bias and spatial autocorrelation are rarely included, thereby limiting statistical inference of resulting distribution maps. We specified and implemented a spatially explicit Bayesian hierarchical model for a cryptic mammal species (pygmy rabbit Brachylagus idahoensis). Our approach used two levels of indirect sign that are naturally hierarchical (burrows and faecal pellets) to build a model that allows for inference on regression coefficients as well as spatially explicit model parameters. We also produced maps of rabbit distribution (occupied burrows) and relative abundance (number of burrows expected to be occupied by pygmy rabbits). The model demonstrated statistically rigorous spatial prediction by including spatial autocorrelation and measurement uncertainty. We demonstrated flexibility of our modelling framework by depicting probabilistic distribution predictions using different assumptions of pygmy rabbit habitat requirements. Spatial representations of the variance of posterior predictive distributions were obtained to evaluate heterogeneity in model fit across the spatial domain. Leave-one-out cross-validation was conducted to evaluate the overall model fit. Synthesis and applications. Our method draws on the strengths of previous work, thereby bridging and extending two active areas of ecological research: species distribution models and multi-state occupancy modelling. Our framework can be extended to encompass both larger extents and other species for which direct estimation of abundance is difficult. ?? 2010 The Authors. Journal compilation ?? 2010 British Ecological Society.
Holan, S.H.; Davis, G.M.; Wildhaber, M.L.; DeLonay, A.J.; Papoulias, D.M.
2009-01-01
The timing of spawning in fish is tightly linked to environmental factors; however, these factors are not very well understood for many species. Specifically, little information is available to guide recruitment efforts for endangered species such as the sturgeon. Therefore, we propose a Bayesian hierarchical model for predicting the success of spawning of the shovelnose sturgeon which uses both biological and behavioural (longitudinal) data. In particular, we use data that were produced from a tracking study that was conducted in the Lower Missouri River. The data that were produced from this study consist of biological variables associated with readiness to spawn along with longitudinal behavioural data collected by using telemetry and archival data storage tags. These high frequency data are complex both biologically and in the underlying behavioural process. To accommodate such complexity we developed a hierarchical linear regression model that uses an eigenvalue predictor, derived from the transition probability matrix of a two-state Markov switching model with generalized auto-regressive conditional heteroscedastic dynamics. Finally, to minimize the computational burden that is associated with estimation of this model, a parallel computing approach is proposed. ?? Journal compilation 2009 Royal Statistical Society.
Hierarchical modeling of plasma and transport phenomena in a dielectric barrier discharge reactor
Bali, N.; Aggelopoulos, C. A.; Skouras, E. D.; Tsakiroglou, C. D.; Burganos, V. N.
2017-12-01
A novel dual-time hierarchical approach is developed to link the plasma process to macroscopic transport phenomena in the interior of a dielectric barrier discharge (DBD) reactor that has been used for soil remediation (Aggelopoulos et al 2016 Chem. Eng. J. 301 353–61). The generation of active species by plasma reactions is simulated at the microseconds (µs) timescale, whereas convection and thermal conduction are simulated at the macroscopic (minutes) timescale. This hierarchical model is implemented in order to investigate the influence of the plasma DBD process on the transport and reaction mechanisms during remediation of polluted soil. In the microscopic model, the variables of interest include the plasma-induced reactive concentrations, while in the macroscopic approach, the temperature distribution, and the velocity field both inside the discharge gap and within the polluted soil material as well. For the latter model, the Navier–Stokes and Darcy Brinkman equations for the transport phenomena in the porous domain are solved numerically using a FEM software. The effective medium theory is employed to provide estimates of the effective time-evolving and three-phase transport properties in the soil sample. Model predictions considering the temporal evolution of the plasma remediation process are presented and compared with corresponding experimental data.
Agent-based brain modeling by means of hierarchical cooperative coevolution.
Maniadakis, Michail; Trahanias, Panos
2009-01-01
We address the development of brain-inspired models that will be embedded in robotic systems to support their cognitive abilities. We introduce a novel agent-based coevolutionary computational framework for modeling assemblies of brain areas. Specifically, self-organized agent structures are employed to represent brain areas. In order to support the design of agents, we introduce a hierarchical cooperative coevolutionary (HCCE) scheme that effectively specifies the structural details of autonomous, yet cooperating system components. The design process is facilitated by the capability of the HCCE-based design mechanism to investigate the performance of the model in lesion conditions. Interestingly, HCCE also provides a consistent mechanism to reconfigure (if necessary) the structure of agents, facilitating follow-up modeling efforts. Implemented models are embedded in a simulated robot to support its behavioral capabilities, also demonstrating the validity of the proposed computational framework.
Beth E Ross
2012-01-01
In ecological studies, the goal is often to describe and gain further insight into ecological processes underlying the data collected during observational studies. Be- cause of the nature of observational data, it can often be difficult to separate the variation in the data from the underlying process or 'state dynamics.' In order to better address this issue, it is becoming increasingly common for researchers to use hierarchical models. Hierarchical spatial, temporal, and spatio-temporal mod...
Aplication re-engineering, the multi-parametrical hierarchical optimal model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Spiák Ján
2004-09-01
Full Text Available The target of this contribution is to define a new working out way, from re-engineering of production processes coming from the large-dimensional optimalizing problems, with applying the multi-parametrical hierarchical optimal model, builds up from 3 levels ( technology, logistics, economy. The designed working out way comes from generalizing obtained experiences from application the re-engineering in concrete conditions of processes working a processing row material (re-engineering the plant Siderit, Slovmag company and taking in consideration specific conditions of state enterprise experience in Slovak republic.
Hierarchical model-based predictive control of a power plant portfolio
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Edlund, Kristian; Bendtsen, Jan Dimon; Jørgensen, John Bagterp
2011-01-01
One of the main difficulties in large-scale implementation of renewable energy in existing power systems is that the production from renewable sources is difficult to predict and control. For this reason, fast and efficient control of controllable power producing units – so-called “portfolio...... control” – becomes increasingly important as the ratio of renewable energy in a power system grows. As a consequence, tomorrow's “smart grids” require highly flexible and scalable control systems compared to conventional power systems. This paper proposes a hierarchical model-based predictive control...
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Mishnaevsky, Leon
2014-01-01
, with modified, hybridor nanomodified structures. In this project, we seek to explore the potential of hybrid (carbon/glass),nanoreinforced and hierarchical composites (with secondary CNT, graphene or nanoclay reinforcement) as future materials for highly reliable large wind turbines. Using 3D multiscale...... computational models ofthe composites, we study the effect of hybrid structure and of nanomodifications on the strength, lifetime and service properties of the materials (see Figure 1). As a result, a series of recommendations toward the improvement of composites for structural applications under long term...
A hierarchical Markov decision process modeling feeding and marketing decisions of growing pigs
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Pourmoayed, Reza; Nielsen, Lars Relund; Kristensen, Anders Ringgaard
2016-01-01
Feeding is the most important cost in the production of growing pigs and has a direct impact on the marketing decisions, growth and the final quality of the meat. In this paper, we address the sequential decision problem of when to change the feed-mix within a finisher pig pen and when to pick pigs...... for marketing. We formulate a hierarchical Markov decision process with three levels representing the decision process. The model considers decisions related to feeding and marketing and finds the optimal decision given the current state of the pen. The state of the system is based on information from on...
Hierarchical competition models with the Allee effect II: the case of immigration.
Assas, Laila; Dennis, Brian; Elaydi, Saber; Kwessi, Eddy; Livadiotis, George
2015-01-01
This is part II of an earlier paper that dealt with hierarchical models with the Allee effect but with no immigration. In this paper, we greatly simplify the proofs in part I and provide a proof of the global dynamics of the non-hyperbolic cases that were previously conjectured. Then, we show how immigration to one of the species or to both would, drastically, change the dynamics of the system. It is shown that if the level of immigration to one or to both species is above a specified level, then there will be no extinction region where both species go to extinction.
Jordan domain and Fatou set concerning diamond-like hierarchical Potts models
Jianyong, Qiao; Junyang, Gao
2007-01-01
For the Potts models on the diamond-like hierarchical lattice, the domains of the complex phases are indeed the Fatou components of a family of rational maps. In this paper, we deal with the relationships between this family of Fatou components and the Jordan domains and describe the topological structures of this family of Fatou components completely. The research was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No 10625107) and the Program for New Century Excellent Talents in University (Grant No 04-0490).
Semmens, Brice X; Ward, Eric J; Moore, Jonathan W; Darimont, Chris T
2009-07-09
Variability in resource use defines the width of a trophic niche occupied by a population. Intra-population variability in resource use may occur across hierarchical levels of population structure from individuals to subpopulations. Understanding how levels of population organization contribute to population niche width is critical to ecology and evolution. Here we describe a hierarchical stable isotope mixing model that can simultaneously estimate both the prey composition of a consumer diet and the diet variability among individuals and across levels of population organization. By explicitly estimating variance components for multiple scales, the model can deconstruct the niche width of a consumer population into relevant levels of population structure. We apply this new approach to stable isotope data from a population of gray wolves from coastal British Columbia, and show support for extensive intra-population niche variability among individuals, social groups, and geographically isolated subpopulations. The analytic method we describe improves mixing models by accounting for diet variability, and improves isotope niche width analysis by quantitatively assessing the contribution of levels of organization to the niche width of a population.
Large-scale model of flow in heterogeneous and hierarchical porous media
Chabanon, Morgan; Valdés-Parada, Francisco J.; Ochoa-Tapia, J. Alberto; Goyeau, Benoît
2017-11-01
Heterogeneous porous structures are very often encountered in natural environments, bioremediation processes among many others. Reliable models for momentum transport are crucial whenever mass transport or convective heat occurs in these systems. In this work, we derive a large-scale average model for incompressible single-phase flow in heterogeneous and hierarchical soil porous media composed of two distinct porous regions embedding a solid impermeable structure. The model, based on the local mechanical equilibrium assumption between the porous regions, results in a unique momentum transport equation where the global effective permeability naturally depends on the permeabilities at the intermediate mesoscopic scales and therefore includes the complex hierarchical structure of the soil. The associated closure problem is numerically solved for various configurations and properties of the heterogeneous medium. The results clearly show that the effective permeability increases with the volume fraction of the most permeable porous region. It is also shown that the effective permeability is sensitive to the dimensionality spatial arrangement of the porous regions and in particular depends on the contact between the impermeable solid and the two porous regions.
Evaluation of image registration spatial accuracy using a Bayesian hierarchical model.
Liu, Suyu; Yuan, Ying; Castillo, Richard; Guerrero, Thomas; Johnson, Valen E
2014-06-01
To evaluate the utility of automated deformable image registration (DIR) algorithms, it is necessary to evaluate both the registration accuracy of the DIR algorithm itself, as well as the registration accuracy of the human readers from whom the "gold standard" is obtained. We propose a Bayesian hierarchical model to evaluate the spatial accuracy of human readers and automatic DIR methods based on multiple image registration data generated by human readers and automatic DIR methods. To fully account for the locations of landmarks in all images, we treat the true locations of landmarks as latent variables and impose a hierarchical structure on the magnitude of registration errors observed across image pairs. DIR registration errors are modeled using Gaussian processes with reference prior densities on prior parameters that determine the associated covariance matrices. We develop a Gibbs sampling algorithm to efficiently fit our models to high-dimensional data, and apply the proposed method to analyze an image dataset obtained from a 4D thoracic CT study. © 2014, The International Biometric Society.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Brice X Semmens
Full Text Available Variability in resource use defines the width of a trophic niche occupied by a population. Intra-population variability in resource use may occur across hierarchical levels of population structure from individuals to subpopulations. Understanding how levels of population organization contribute to population niche width is critical to ecology and evolution. Here we describe a hierarchical stable isotope mixing model that can simultaneously estimate both the prey composition of a consumer diet and the diet variability among individuals and across levels of population organization. By explicitly estimating variance components for multiple scales, the model can deconstruct the niche width of a consumer population into relevant levels of population structure. We apply this new approach to stable isotope data from a population of gray wolves from coastal British Columbia, and show support for extensive intra-population niche variability among individuals, social groups, and geographically isolated subpopulations. The analytic method we describe improves mixing models by accounting for diet variability, and improves isotope niche width analysis by quantitatively assessing the contribution of levels of organization to the niche width of a population.
Hu, Shihao; Jiang, Haodan; Xia, Zhenhai; Gao, Xiaosheng
2010-09-01
With unique hierarchical fibrillar structures on their feet, gecko lizards can walk on vertical walls or even ceilings. Recent experiments have shown that strong binding along the shear direction and easy lifting in the normal direction can be achieved by forming unidirectional carbon nanotube array with laterally distributed tips similar to gecko's feet. In this study, a multiscale modeling approach was developed to analyze friction and adhesion behaviors of this hierarchical fibrillar system. Vertically aligned carbon nanotube array with laterally distributed segments at the end was simulated by coarse grained molecular dynamics. The effects of the laterally distributed segments on friction and adhesion strengths were analyzed, and further adopted as cohesive laws used in finite element analysis at device scale. The results show that the laterally distributed segments play an essential role in achieving high force anisotropy between normal and shear directions in the adhesives. Finite element analysis reveals a new friction-enhanced adhesion mechanism of the carbon nanotube array, which also exists in gecko adhesive system. The multiscale modeling provides an approach to bridge the microlevel structures of the carbon nanotube array with its macrolevel adhesive behaviors, and the predictions from this modeling give an insight into the mechanisms of gecko-mimicking dry adhesives.
Evolutionary-Hierarchical Bases of the Formation of Cluster Model of Innovation Economic Development
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yuliya Vladimirovna Dubrovskaya
2016-10-01
Full Text Available The functioning of a modern economic system is based on the interaction of objects of different hierarchical levels. Thus, the problem of the study of innovation processes taking into account the mutual influence of the activities of these economic actors becomes important. The paper dwells evolutionary basis for the formation of models of innovation development on the basis of micro and macroeconomic analysis. Most of the concepts recognized that despite a big number of diverse models, the coordination of the relations between economic agents is of crucial importance for the successful innovation development. According to the results of the evolutionary-hierarchical analysis, the authors reveal key phases of the development of forms of business cooperation, science and government in the domestic economy. It has become the starting point of the conception of the characteristics of the interaction in the cluster models of innovation development of the economy. Considerable expectancies on improvement of the national innovative system are connected with the development of cluster and network structures. The main objective of government authorities is the formation of mechanisms and institutions that will foster cooperation between members of the clusters. The article explains that the clusters cannot become the factors in the growth of the national economy, not being an effective tool for interaction between the actors of the regional innovative systems.
A hierarchical model for automated breast lesion detection from ultrasound 3D data.
Deng, Yinhui; Liu, Weiping; Jago, James
2015-01-01
Ultrasound imaging plays an important role in breast cancer screening for which early and accurate lesion detection is crucial for clinical practice. Many researches were performed on supporting the breast lesion detection based on ultrasound data. In the paper, a novel hierarchical model is proposed to automatically detect breast lesion from ultrasound 3D data. The model simultaneously considers the data information from low-level to high-level for the detection by processing with a joint probability. For each layer of the model, the corresponding algorithm is performed to denote the certain level image information. A dynamic programming approach is applied to efficiently obtain the optimal solution. With a preliminary dataset, the superior performance of the proposed model has been demonstrated for the automated detection of breast lesion with 0.375 false positive per case at 91.7% sensitivity.
Efficient estimation of semiparametric copula models for bivariate survival data
Cheng, Guang
2014-01-01
A semiparametric copula model for bivariate survival data is characterized by a parametric copula model of dependence and nonparametric models of two marginal survival functions. Efficient estimation for the semiparametric copula model has been recently studied for the complete data case. When the survival data are censored, semiparametric efficient estimation has only been considered for some specific copula models such as the Gaussian copulas. In this paper, we obtain the semiparametric efficiency bound and efficient estimation for general semiparametric copula models for possibly censored data. We construct an approximate maximum likelihood estimator by approximating the log baseline hazard functions with spline functions. We show that our estimates of the copula dependence parameter and the survival functions are asymptotically normal and efficient. Simple consistent covariance estimators are also provided. Numerical results are used to illustrate the finite sample performance of the proposed estimators. © 2013 Elsevier Inc.
Time series modeling of system self-assessment of survival
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Lu, H.; Kolarik, W.J. [Texas Tech Univ., Lubbock, TX (United States). Dept. of Industrial Engineering
1999-06-01
Self-assessment of survival for a system, subsystem or component is implemented by assessing conditional performance reliability in real-time, which includes modeling and analysis of physical performance data. This paper proposes a time series analysis approach to system self-assessment (prediction) of survival. In the approach, physical performance data are modeled in a time series. The performance forecast is based on the model developed and is converted to the reliability of system survival. In contrast to a standard regression model, a time series model, using on-line data, is suitable for the real-time performance prediction. This paper illustrates an example of time series modeling and survival assessment, regarding an excessive tool edge wear failure mode for a twist drill operation.
Skataric, Maja; Bose, Sandip; Zeroug, Smaine; Tilke, Peter
2017-02-01
It is not uncommon in the field of non-destructive evaluation that multiple measurements encompassing a variety of modalities are available for analysis and interpretation for determining the underlying states of nature of the materials or parts being tested. Despite and sometimes due to the richness of data, significant challenges arise in the interpretation manifested as ambiguities and inconsistencies due to various uncertain factors in the physical properties (inputs), environment, measurement device properties, human errors, and the measurement data (outputs). Most of these uncertainties cannot be described by any rigorous mathematical means, and modeling of all possibilities is usually infeasible for many real time applications. In this work, we will discuss an approach based on Hierarchical Bayesian Graphical Models (HBGM) for the improved interpretation of complex (multi-dimensional) problems with parametric uncertainties that lack usable physical models. In this setting, the input space of the physical properties is specified through prior distributions based on domain knowledge and expertise, which are represented as Gaussian mixtures to model the various possible scenarios of interest for non-destructive testing applications. Forward models are then used offline to generate the expected distribution of the proposed measurements which are used to train a hierarchical Bayesian network. In Bayesian analysis, all model parameters are treated as random variables, and inference of the parameters is made on the basis of posterior distribution given the observed data. Learned parameters of the posterior distribution obtained after the training can therefore be used to build an efficient classifier for differentiating new observed data in real time on the basis of pre-trained models. We will illustrate the implementation of the HBGM approach to ultrasonic measurements used for cement evaluation of cased wells in the oil industry.
A hierarchical tectonic model of the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean region
Ross, Malcolm I.; Scotese, Christopher R.
1988-12-01
A quantitative computer graphic methodology (hierarchical tectonic analysis) has been used to model the tectonic evolution of the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean region. This method employs a highly structured, hierarchical description of the relative motions of pairs of tectonic elements in order to quantify the timing and style of plate interactions. The main features described in this model are: (1) a revised fit of Pangea (2) the opening of the Gulf of Mexico in the Middle-Late Jurassic (3) the formation of a Proto-Caribbean Ocean due to the separation of North and South America during the Early Cretaceous (4) the formation of the Greater Antilles Arc along the western margin of the Proto-Caribbean Ocean (5) the insertion of the Farallon plate between North and South America during the Middle Cretaceous resulting in the northeastward advance of the Greater Antilles Arc and the subduction of Proto-Caribbean oceanic crust (6) the complete subduction of the Proto-Caribbean Ocean and the collision of the Greater Antilles arc with the Bahamas Platform in the Late Cretaceous (7) the truncation of the Caribbean section of the Farallon plate from its Pacific counterpart and the formation of the Panama Arc (latest Cretaceous), and (8) the westward movement of North and South America with respect to the Caribbean plate resulting in the opening of the Yucatan Basin (Paleocene) and subsequently in the evolution of the Cayman Trough and E-W zone of strike-slip.
Hierarchical neural network model of the visual system determining figure/ground relation
Kikuchi, Masayuki
2017-07-01
One of the most important functions of the visual perception in the brain is figure/ground interpretation from input images. Figural region in 2D image corresponding to object in 3D space are distinguished from background region extended behind the object. Previously the author proposed a neural network model of figure/ground separation constructed on the standpoint that local geometric features such as curvatures and outer angles at corners are extracted and propagated along input contour in a single layer network (Kikuchi & Akashi, 2001). However, such a processing principle has the defect that signal propagation requires manyiterations despite the fact that actual visual system determines figure/ground relation within the short period (Zhou et al., 2000). In order to attain speed-up for determining figure/ground, this study incorporates hierarchical architecture into the previous model. This study confirmed the effect of the hierarchization as for the computation time by simulation. As the number of layers increased, the required computation time reduced. However, such speed-up effect was saturatedas the layers increased to some extent. This study attempted to explain this saturation effect by the notion of average distance between vertices in the area of complex network, and succeeded to mimic the saturation effect by computer simulation.
Statistical Power in Two-Level Hierarchical Linear Models with Arbitrary Number of Factor Levels.
Shin, Yongyun; Lafata, Jennifer Elston; Cao, Yu
2018-03-01
As the US health care system undergoes unprecedented changes, the need for adequately powered studies to understand the multiple levels of main and interaction factors that influence patient and other care outcomes in hierarchical settings has taken center stage. We consider two-level models where n lower-level units are nested within each of J higher-level clusters (e.g. patients within practices and practices within networks) and where two factors may have arbitrary a and b factor levels, respectively. Both factors may represent a × b treatment combinations, or one of them may be a pretreatment covariate. Consideration of both factors at the same higher or lower hierarchical level, or one factor per hierarchical level yields a cluster (C), multisite (M) or split-plot randomized design (S). We express statistical power to detect main, interaction, or any treatment effects as a function of sample sizes (n, J), a and b factor levels, intraclass correlation ρ and effect sizes δ given each design d ∈ {C, M, S}. The power function given a, b, ρ, δ and d determines adequate sample sizes to achieve a minimum power requirement. Next, we compare the impact of the designs on power to facilitate selection of optimal design and sample sizes in a way that minimizes the total cost given budget and logistic constraints. Our approach enables accurate and conservative power computation with a priori knowledge of only three effect size differences regardless of how large a × b is, simplifying previously available computation methods for health services and other researches.
SEMI-COMPETING RISKS ON A TRIVARIATE WEIBULL SURVIVAL MODEL
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jenq-Daw Lee
2008-07-01
Full Text Available A setting of a trivairate survival function using semi-competing risks concept is proposed, in which a terminal event can only occur after other events. The Stanford Heart Transplant data is reanalyzed using a trivariate Weibull distribution model with the proposed survival function.
A life-cycle model with ambiguous survival beliefs
Groneck, Max; Ludwig, Alexander; Zimper, Alexander
Based on a cognitive notion of neo-additive capacities reflecting likelihood insensitivity with respect to survival chances, we construct a Choquet Bayesian learning model over the life-cycle that generates a motivational notion of neo-additive survival beliefs expressing ambiguity attitudes. We
Prediction of survival with alternative modeling techniques using pseudo values
T. van der Ploeg (Tjeerd); F.R. Datema (Frank); R.J. Baatenburg de Jong (Robert Jan); E.W. Steyerberg (Ewout)
2014-01-01
textabstractBackground: The use of alternative modeling techniques for predicting patient survival is complicated by the fact that some alternative techniques cannot readily deal with censoring, which is essential for analyzing survival data. In the current study, we aimed to demonstrate that pseudo
An ontology-based hierarchical semantic modeling approach to clinical pathway workflows.
Ye, Yan; Jiang, Zhibin; Diao, Xiaodi; Yang, Dong; Du, Gang
2009-08-01
This paper proposes an ontology-based approach of modeling clinical pathway workflows at the semantic level for facilitating computerized clinical pathway implementation and efficient delivery of high-quality healthcare services. A clinical pathway ontology (CPO) is formally defined in OWL web ontology language (OWL) to provide common semantic foundation for meaningful representation and exchange of pathway-related knowledge. A CPO-based semantic modeling method is then presented to describe clinical pathways as interconnected hierarchical models including the top-level outcome flow and intervention workflow level along a care timeline. Furthermore, relevant temporal knowledge can be fully represented by combing temporal entities in CPO and temporal rules based on semantic web rule language (SWRL). An illustrative example about a clinical pathway for cesarean section shows the applicability of the proposed methodology in enabling structured semantic descriptions of any real clinical pathway.
Parallel Motion Simulation of Large-Scale Real-Time Crowd in a Hierarchical Environmental Model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Xin Wang
2012-01-01
Full Text Available This paper presents a parallel real-time crowd simulation method based on a hierarchical environmental model. A dynamical model of the complex environment should be constructed to simulate the state transition and propagation of individual motions. By modeling of a virtual environment where virtual crowds reside, we employ different parallel methods on a topological layer, a path layer and a perceptual layer. We propose a parallel motion path matching method based on the path layer and a parallel crowd simulation method based on the perceptual layer. The large-scale real-time crowd simulation becomes possible with these methods. Numerical experiments are carried out to demonstrate the methods and results.
Graves, T.A.; Kendall, Katherine C.; Royle, J. Andrew; Stetz, J.B.; Macleod, A.C.
2011-01-01
Few studies link habitat to grizzly bear Ursus arctos abundance and these have not accounted for the variation in detection or spatial autocorrelation. We collected and genotyped bear hair in and around Glacier National Park in northwestern Montana during the summer of 2000. We developed a hierarchical Markov chain Monte Carlo model that extends the existing occupancy and count models by accounting for (1) spatially explicit variables that we hypothesized might influence abundance; (2) separate sub-models of detection probability for two distinct sampling methods (hair traps and rub trees) targeting different segments of the population; (3) covariates to explain variation in each sub-model of detection; (4) a conditional autoregressive term to account for spatial autocorrelation; (5) weights to identify most important variables. Road density and per cent mesic habitat best explained variation in female grizzly bear abundance; spatial autocorrelation was not supported. More female bears were predicted in places with lower road density and with more mesic habitat. Detection rates of females increased with rub tree sampling effort. Road density best explained variation in male grizzly bear abundance and spatial autocorrelation was supported. More male bears were predicted in areas of low road density. Detection rates of males increased with rub tree and hair trap sampling effort and decreased over the sampling period. We provide a new method to (1) incorporate multiple detection methods into hierarchical models of abundance; (2) determine whether spatial autocorrelation should be included in final models. Our results suggest that the influence of landscape variables is consistent between habitat selection and abundance in this system.
Hierarchical Bayesian spatial models for alcohol availability, drug "hot spots" and violent crime
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Horel Scott
2006-12-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background Ecologic studies have shown a relationship between alcohol outlet densities, illicit drug use and violence. The present study examined this relationship in the City of Houston, Texas, using a sample of 439 census tracts. Neighborhood sociostructural covariates, alcohol outlet density, drug crime density and violent crime data were collected for the year 2000, and analyzed using hierarchical Bayesian models. Model selection was accomplished by applying the Deviance Information Criterion. Results The counts of violent crime in each census tract were modelled as having a conditional Poisson distribution. Four neighbourhood explanatory variables were identified using principal component analysis. The best fitted model was selected as the one considering both unstructured and spatial dependence random effects. The results showed that drug-law violation explained a greater amount of variance in violent crime rates than alcohol outlet densities. The relative risk for drug-law violation was 2.49 and that for alcohol outlet density was 1.16. Of the neighbourhood sociostructural covariates, males of age 15 to 24 showed an effect on violence, with a 16% decrease in relative risk for each increase the size of its standard deviation. Both unstructured heterogeneity random effect and spatial dependence need to be included in the model. Conclusion The analysis presented suggests that activity around illicit drug markets is more strongly associated with violent crime than is alcohol outlet density. Unique among the ecological studies in this field, the present study not only shows the direction and magnitude of impact of neighbourhood sociostructural covariates as well as alcohol and illicit drug activities in a neighbourhood, it also reveals the importance of applying hierarchical Bayesian models in this research field as both spatial dependence and heterogeneity random effects need to be considered simultaneously.
Crimmins, Shawn M.; Walleser, Liza R.; Hertel, Dan R.; McKann, Patrick C.; Rohweder, Jason J.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.
2016-01-01
There is growing need to develop models of spatial patterns in animal abundance, yet comparatively few examples of such models exist. This is especially true in situations where the abundance of one species may inhibit that of another, such as the intensively-farmed landscape of the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of the central United States, where waterfowl production is largely constrained by mesocarnivore nest predation. We used a hierarchical Bayesian approach to relate the distribution of various land-cover types to the relative abundances of four mesocarnivores in the PPR: coyote Canis latrans, raccoon Procyon lotor, red fox Vulpes vulpes, and striped skunk Mephitis mephitis. We developed models for each species at multiple spatial resolutions (41.4 km2, 10.4 km2, and 2.6 km2) to address different ecological and management-related questions. Model results for each species were similar irrespective of resolution. We found that the amount of row-crop agriculture was nearly ubiquitous in our best models, exhibiting a positive relationship with relative abundance for each species. The amount of native grassland land-cover was positively associated with coyote and raccoon relative abundance, but generally absent from models for red fox and skunk. Red fox and skunk were positively associated with each other, suggesting potential niche overlap. We found no evidence that coyote abundance limited that of other mesocarnivore species, as might be expected under a hypothesis of mesopredator release. The relationships between relative abundance and land-cover types were similar across spatial resolutions. Our results indicated that mesocarnivores in the PPR are most likely to occur in portions of the landscape with large amounts of agricultural land-cover. Further, our results indicated that track-survey data can be used in a hierarchical framework to gain inferences regarding spatial patterns in animal relative abundance.
Modeling the survival kinetics of Salmonella in tree nuts for use in risk assessment.
Santillana Farakos, Sofia M; Pouillot, Régis; Anderson, Nathan; Johnson, Rhoma; Son, Insook; Van Doren, Jane
2016-06-16
Salmonella has been shown to survive in tree nuts over long periods of time. This survival capacity and its variability are key elements for risk assessment of Salmonella in tree nuts. The aim of this study was to develop a mathematical model to predict survival of Salmonella in tree nuts at ambient storage temperatures that considers variability and uncertainty separately and can easily be incorporated into a risk assessment model. Data on Salmonella survival on raw almonds, pecans, pistachios and walnuts were collected from the peer reviewed literature. The Weibull model was chosen as the baseline model and various fixed effect and mixed effect models were fit to the data. The best model identified through statistical analysis testing was then used to develop a hierarchical Bayesian model. Salmonella in tree nuts showed slow declines at temperatures ranging from 21°C to 24°C. A high degree of variability in survival was observed across tree nut studies reported in the literature. Statistical analysis results indicated that the best applicable model was a mixed effect model that included a fixed and random variation of δ per tree nut (which is the time it takes for the first log10 reduction) and a fixed variation of ρ per tree nut (parameter which defines the shape of the curve). Higher estimated survival rates (δ) were obtained for Salmonella on pistachios, followed in decreasing order by pecans, almonds and walnuts. The posterior distributions obtained from Bayesian inference were used to estimate the variability in the log10 decrease levels in survival for each tree nut, and the uncertainty of these estimates. These modeled uncertainty and variability distributions of the estimates can be used to obtain a complete exposure assessment of Salmonella in tree nuts when including time-temperature parameters for storage and consumption data. The statistical approach presented in this study may be applied to any studies that aim to develop predictive models to be
Hierarchical Colored Petri Nets for Modeling and Analysis of Transit Signal Priority Control Systems
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yisheng An
2018-01-01
Full Text Available In this paper, we consider the problem of developing a model for traffic signal control with transit priority using Hierarchical Colored Petri nets (HCPN. Petri nets (PN are useful for state analysis of discrete event systems due to their powerful modeling capability and mathematical formalism. This paper focuses on their use to formalize the transit signal priority (TSP control model. In a four-phase traffic signal control model, the transit detection and two kinds of transit priority strategies are integrated to obtain the HCPN-based TSP control models. One of the advantages to use these models is the clear presentation of traffic light behaviors in terms of conditions and events that cause the detection of a priority request by a transit vehicle. Another advantage of the resulting models is that the correctness and reliability of the proposed strategies are easily analyzed. After their full reachable states are generated, the boundness, liveness, and fairness of the proposed models are verified. Experimental results show that the proposed control model provides transit vehicles with better effectiveness at intersections. This work helps advance the state of the art in the design of signal control models related to the intersection of roadways.
Wang, Xiao; Gu, Jinghua; Hilakivi-Clarke, Leena; Clarke, Robert; Xuan, Jianhua
2017-01-15
The advent of high-throughput DNA methylation profiling techniques has enabled the possibility of accurate identification of differentially methylated genes for cancer research. The large number of measured loci facilitates whole genome methylation study, yet posing great challenges for differential methylation detection due to the high variability in tumor samples. We have developed a novel probabilistic approach, D: ifferential M: ethylation detection using a hierarchical B: ayesian model exploiting L: ocal D: ependency (DM-BLD), to detect differentially methylated genes based on a Bayesian framework. The DM-BLD approach features a joint model to capture both the local dependency of measured loci and the dependency of methylation change in samples. Specifically, the local dependency is modeled by Leroux conditional autoregressive structure; the dependency of methylation changes is modeled by a discrete Markov random field. A hierarchical Bayesian model is developed to fully take into account the local dependency for differential analysis, in which differential states are embedded as hidden variables. Simulation studies demonstrate that DM-BLD outperforms existing methods for differential methylation detection, particularly when the methylation change is moderate and the variability of methylation in samples is high. DM-BLD has been applied to breast cancer data to identify important methylated genes (such as polycomb target genes and genes involved in transcription factor activity) associated with breast cancer recurrence. A Matlab package of DM-BLD is available at http://www.cbil.ece.vt.edu/software.htm CONTACT: Xuan@vt.eduSupplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.
Jian, Y.; Silvestri, S.; Marani, M.; Saltarin, A.; Chillemi, G.
2012-12-01
We applied a hierarchical state space model to predict the abundance of Cx.pipiens (a West Nile Virus vector) in the Po River Delta Region, Northeastern Italy. The study area has large mosquito abundance, due to a favorable environment and climate as well as dense human population. Mosquito data were collected on a weekly basis at more than 20 sites from May to September in 2010 and 2011. Cx.pipiens was the dominant species in our samples, accounting for about 90% of the more than 300,000 total captures. The hydrological component of the model accounted for evapotranspiration, infiltration and deep percolation to infer, in a 0D context, the local dynamics of soil moisture as a direct exogenous forcing of mosquito dynamics. The population model had a Gompertz structure, which included exogenous meteorological forcings and delayed internal dynamics. The models were coupled within a hierarchical statistical structure to overcome the relatively short length of the samples by exploiting the large number of concurrent observations available. The results indicated that Cx.pipiens abundance had significant density dependence at 1 week lag, which approximately matched its development time from larvae to adult. Among the exogenous controls, temperature, daylight hours, and soil moisture explained most of the dynamics. Longer daylight hours and lower soil moisture values resulted in higher abundance. The negative correlation of soil moisture and mosquito population can be explained with the abundance of water in the region (e.g. due to irrigation) and the preference for eutrophic habitats by Cx.pipien. Variations among sites were explained by land use factors as represented by distance to the nearest rice field and NDVI values: the carrying capacity decreased with increased distance to the nearest rice filed, while the maximum growth rate was positively related with NDVI. The model shows a satisfactory performance in predicting (potentially one week in advance) mosquito
Prion Amplification and Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling Refine Detection of Prion Infection
Wyckoff, A. Christy; Galloway, Nathan; Meyerett-Reid, Crystal; Powers, Jenny; Spraker, Terry; Monello, Ryan J.; Pulford, Bruce; Wild, Margaret; Antolin, Michael; Vercauteren, Kurt; Zabel, Mark
2015-02-01
Prions are unique infectious agents that replicate without a genome and cause neurodegenerative diseases that include chronic wasting disease (CWD) of cervids. Immunohistochemistry (IHC) is currently considered the gold standard for diagnosis of a prion infection but may be insensitive to early or sub-clinical CWD that are important to understanding CWD transmission and ecology. We assessed the potential of serial protein misfolding cyclic amplification (sPMCA) to improve detection of CWD prior to the onset of clinical signs. We analyzed tissue samples from free-ranging Rocky Mountain elk (Cervus elaphus nelsoni) and used hierarchical Bayesian analysis to estimate the specificity and sensitivity of IHC and sPMCA conditional on simultaneously estimated disease states. Sensitivity estimates were higher for sPMCA (99.51%, credible interval (CI) 97.15-100%) than IHC of obex (brain stem, 76.56%, CI 57.00-91.46%) or retropharyngeal lymph node (90.06%, CI 74.13-98.70%) tissues, or both (98.99%, CI 90.01-100%). Our hierarchical Bayesian model predicts the prevalence of prion infection in this elk population to be 18.90% (CI 15.50-32.72%), compared to previous estimates of 12.90%. Our data reveal a previously unidentified sub-clinical prion-positive portion of the elk population that could represent silent carriers capable of significantly impacting CWD ecology.
Heinzer, Stefan; Krucker, Thomas; Stampanoni, Marco; Abela, Rafael; Meyer, Eric P.; Schuler, Alexandra; Schneider, Philipp; Muller, Ralph
2004-10-01
A wide range of disorders are associated with alterations of the central and peripheral vascular system. Modified vascular corrosion casting using a newly developed polymer, allows for the first time hierarchical assessment of 3D vessel data in animals down to the level of capillaries. Imaging of large volumes of vasculature at intermediate resolution (16 um) was performed using a desktop micro-computed tomography system. Subsequently regions of interest were identified for additional high resolution imaging (1.4 um) at the X-ray Tomographic Microscopy (XTM) station of the Swiss Light Source (SLS). A framework for systematic hierarchical imaging and quantification was developed. Issues addressed included enhanced XTM data acquisition, introduction of local tomography, sample navigation, advanced post processing, and data combination. In addition to visual assessment of qualitative changes, morphometrical and architectural indices were determined using direct 3D morphometry software developed in house. Vessel specific parameters included thickness, surface, connectivity, and vessel length. Reconstructions of cerebral vasculature in mutant mice modeling Alzheimer's disease revealed significant changes in vessel architecture and morphology. In the future, a combination of these techniques may support drug discovery. Additionally, future ultra-high-resolution in vivo systems may even allow non-invasive tracking of temporal alterations in vascular morphology.
An RM-ODP Based Ontology and a CAD Tool for Modeling Hierarchical Systems in Enterprise Architecture
Lê, Lam Son; Wegmann, Alain
2005-01-01
Enterprise Architecture (EA) requires modeling enterprises across multiple levels (from markets down to IT systems) i.e. modeling hierarchical systems. Our goal is to build a Computer Aided Design (CAD) tool for EA. To be able to build this CAD tool, we need an ontology that can be used to describe hierarchical systems. The Reference Model of Open Distributed Processing (RM-ODP) was originally defined for describing IT systems and their environment. RM-ODP can also be suited to general, hier...
Kashuba, Roxolana; Cha, YoonKyung; Alameddine, Ibrahim; Lee, Boknam; Cuffney, Thomas F.
2010-01-01
Multilevel hierarchical modeling methodology has been developed for use in ecological data analysis. The effect of urbanization on stream macroinvertebrate communities was measured across a gradient of basins in each of nine metropolitan regions across the conterminous United States. The hierarchical nature of this dataset was harnessed in a multi-tiered model structure, predicting both invertebrate response at the basin scale and differences in invertebrate response at the region scale. Ordination site scores, total taxa richness, Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, Trichoptera (EPT) taxa richness, and richness-weighted mean tolerance of organisms at a site were used to describe invertebrate responses. Percentage of urban land cover was used as a basin-level predictor variable. Regional mean precipitation, air temperature, and antecedent agriculture were used as region-level predictor variables. Multilevel hierarchical models were fit to both levels of data simultaneously, borrowing statistical strength from the complete dataset to reduce uncertainty in regional coefficient estimates. Additionally, whereas non-hierarchical regressions were only able to show differing relations between invertebrate responses and urban intensity separately for each region, the multilevel hierarchical regressions were able to explain and quantify those differences within a single model. In this way, this modeling approach directly establishes the importance of antecedent agricultural conditions in masking the response of invertebrates to urbanization in metropolitan regions such as Milwaukee-Green Bay, Wisconsin; Denver, Colorado; and Dallas-Fort Worth, Texas. Also, these models show that regions with high precipitation, such as Atlanta, Georgia; Birmingham, Alabama; and Portland, Oregon, start out with better regional background conditions of invertebrates prior to urbanization but experience faster negative rates of change with urbanization. Ultimately, this urbanization
Test anxiety and the hierarchical model of approach and avoidance achievement motivation.
Elliot, A J; McGregor, H A
1999-04-01
This research was designed to incorporate the test anxiety (TA) construct into the hierarchical model of approach and avoidance achievement motivation. Hypotheses regarding state and trait TA were tested in 2 studies, and the results provided strong support for the predictions. State TA (specifically, worry) was documented as a mediator of the negative relationship between performance-avoidance goals and exam performance. The positive relationship between performance-approach goals and exam performance was shown to be independent of TA processes. A series of analyses documented the conceptual and functional convergence of trait TA and fear of failure (FOF), and further validation of the proposed integration was obtained by testing trait TA/FOF and state TA together in the same model. Mastery goals were positively and performance-avoidance goals negatively related to long-term retention.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Nielsen, Martin Krarup; Vidyashankar, Anand N.; Hanlon, Bret
Anthelmintic resistance is an increasing challenge in the control of parasites in livestock. The fecal egg count reduction test (FECRT) is the practical gold standard method for evaluating resistance, but the interpretation is complicated due to high levels of variability. Several factors...... contribute to cause this high variability and these must be taken into account to accurately identify a reduction in anthelmintic efficacy. To address this problem, we developed a hierarchical statistical model for analysis of FECRT data from multiple farms. The model includes animal effect and farm clusters.......4 %) testing positive. The efficacy of pyrantel was unaffected by the presence of S. vulgaris on the farm. The cutoff LCL values used for classifying farms as pyrantel resistant were: >92%: no resistance, 88-92%: suspect resistance, and
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Antich, Jose Luis Diez; Paterna, Mattia; Marxer, Richard
2016-01-01
A method is proposed that extracts a structural representation of percussive audio in an unsupervised manner. It consists of two parts: 1) The input signal is segmented into blocks of approximately even duration, aligned to a metrical grid, using onset and timbre feature extraction, agglomerative...... single-linkage clustering, metrical regularity calculation and beat detection. 2) The approx. equal length blocks are clustered into k clusters and the resulting cluster sequence is modelled by transition probabilities between clusters. The Hierarchical Dirichlet Process Hidden Markov Model is employed...... to jointly estimate the optimal number of sound clusters, to cluster the blocks, and to estimate the transition probabilities between clusters. The result is a segmentation of the input into a sequence of symbols (typically corresponding to hits of hi-hat, snare, bass, cymbal, etc.) that can be evaluated...
Sliwinski, M J; Hall, C B
1998-03-01
General slowing (GS) theories are often tested by meta-analysis that model mean latencies of older adults as a function of mean latencies of younger adults. Ordinary least squares (OLS) regression is inappropriate for this purpose because it fails to account for the nested structure of multitask response time (RT) data. Hierarchical linear models (HLM) are an alternative method for analyzing such data. OLS analysis of data from 21 studies that used iterative cognitive tasks supported GS; however, HLM analysis demonstrated significant variance in slowing across experimental tasks and a process-specific effect by showing less slowing for memory scanning than for visual-search and mental-rotation tasks. The authors conclude that HLM is more suitable than OLS methods for meta-analyses of RT data and for testing GS theories.
Epigenetic change detection and pattern recognition via Bayesian hierarchical hidden Markov models.
Wang, Xinlei; Zang, Miao; Xiao, Guanghua
2013-06-15
Epigenetics is the study of changes to the genome that can switch genes on or off and determine which proteins are transcribed without altering the DNA sequence. Recently, epigenetic changes have been linked to the development and progression of disease such as psychiatric disorders. High-throughput epigenetic experiments have enabled researchers to measure genome-wide epigenetic profiles and yield data consisting of intensity ratios of immunoprecipitation versus reference samples. The intensity ratios can provide a view of genomic regions where protein binding occur under one experimental condition and further allow us to detect epigenetic alterations through comparison between two different conditions. However, such experiments can be expensive, with only a few replicates available. Moreover, epigenetic data are often spatially correlated with high noise levels. In this paper, we develop a Bayesian hierarchical model, combined with hidden Markov processes with four states for modeling spatial dependence, to detect genomic sites with epigenetic changes from two-sample experiments with paired internal control. One attractive feature of the proposed method is that the four states of the hidden Markov process have well-defined biological meanings and allow us to directly call the change patterns based on the corresponding posterior probabilities. In contrast, none of existing methods can offer this advantage. In addition, the proposed method offers great power in statistical inference by spatial smoothing (via hidden Markov modeling) and information pooling (via hierarchical modeling). Both simulation studies and real data analysis in a cocaine addiction study illustrate the reliability and success of this method. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Grieve, Richard; Nixon, Richard; Thompson, Simon G
2010-01-01
Cost-effectiveness analyses (CEA) may be undertaken alongside cluster randomized trials (CRTs) where randomization is at the level of the cluster (for example, the hospital or primary care provider) rather than the individual. Costs (and outcomes) within clusters may be correlated so that the assumption made by standard bivariate regression models, that observations are independent, is incorrect. This study develops a flexible modeling framework to acknowledge the clustering in CEA that use CRTs. The authors extend previous Bayesian bivariate models for CEA of multicenter trials to recognize the specific form of clustering in CRTs. They develop new Bayesian hierarchical models (BHMs) that allow mean costs and outcomes, and also variances, to differ across clusters. They illustrate how each model can be applied using data from a large (1732 cases, 70 primary care providers) CRT evaluating alternative interventions for reducing postnatal depression. The analyses compare cost-effectiveness estimates from BHMs with standard bivariate regression models that ignore the data hierarchy. The BHMs show high levels of cost heterogeneity across clusters (intracluster correlation coefficient, 0.17). Compared with standard regression models, the BHMs yield substantially increased uncertainty surrounding the cost-effectiveness estimates, and altered point estimates. The authors conclude that ignoring clustering can lead to incorrect inferences. The BHMs that they present offer a flexible modeling framework that can be applied more generally to CEA that use CRTs.
A hierarchical updating method for finite element model of airbag buffer system under landing impact
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
He Huan
2015-12-01
Full Text Available In this paper, we propose an impact finite element (FE model for an airbag landing buffer system. First, an impact FE model has been formulated for a typical airbag landing buffer system. We use the independence of the structure FE model from the full impact FE model to develop a hierarchical updating scheme for the recovery module FE model and the airbag system FE model. Second, we define impact responses at key points to compare the computational and experimental results to resolve the inconsistency between the experimental data sampling frequency and experimental triggering. To determine the typical characteristics of the impact dynamics response of the airbag landing buffer system, we present the impact response confidence factors (IRCFs to evaluate how consistent the computational and experiment results are. An error function is defined between the experimental and computational results at key points of the impact response (KPIR to serve as a modified objective function. A radial basis function (RBF is introduced to construct updating variables for a surrogate model for updating the objective function, thereby converting the FE model updating problem to a soluble optimization problem. Finally, the developed method has been validated using an experimental and computational study on the impact dynamics of a classic airbag landing buffer system.
Norros, Veera; Laine, Marko; Lignell, Risto; Thingstad, Frede
2017-10-01
Methods for extracting empirically and theoretically sound parameter values are urgently needed in aquatic ecosystem modelling to describe key flows and their variation in the system. Here, we compare three Bayesian formulations for mechanistic model parameterization that differ in their assumptions about the variation in parameter values between various datasets: 1) global analysis - no variation, 2) separate analysis - independent variation and 3) hierarchical analysis - variation arising from a shared distribution defined by hyperparameters. We tested these methods, using computer-generated and empirical data, coupled with simplified and reasonably realistic plankton food web models, respectively. While all methods were adequate, the simulated example demonstrated that a well-designed hierarchical analysis can result in the most accurate and precise parameter estimates and predictions, due to its ability to combine information across datasets. However, our results also highlighted sensitivity to hyperparameter prior distributions as an important caveat of hierarchical analysis. In the more complex empirical example, hierarchical analysis was able to combine precise identification of parameter values with reasonably good predictive performance, although the ranking of the methods was less straightforward. We conclude that hierarchical Bayesian analysis is a promising tool for identifying key ecosystem-functioning parameters and their variation from empirical datasets.
U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — These data provide information on the survival of California red-legged frogs in a unique ecosystem to better conserve this threatened species while restoring...
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Dura-Bernal, Salvador; Wennekers, Thomas; Denham, Susan L
2012-01-01
Hierarchical generative models, such as Bayesian networks, and belief propagation have been shown to provide a theoretical framework that can account for perceptual processes, including feedforward...
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Salvador Dura-Bernal; Thomas Wennekers; Susan L Denham
2012-01-01
Hierarchical generative models, such as Bayesian networks, and belief propagation have been shown to provide a theoretical framework that can account for perceptual processes, including feedforward...
Spatial patterns of breeding success of grizzly bears derived from hierarchical multistate models.
Fisher, Jason T; Wheatley, Matthew; Mackenzie, Darryl
2014-10-01
Conservation programs often manage populations indirectly through the landscapes in which they live. Empirically, linking reproductive success with landscape structure and anthropogenic change is a first step in understanding and managing the spatial mechanisms that affect reproduction, but this link is not sufficiently informed by data. Hierarchical multistate occupancy models can forge these links by estimating spatial patterns of reproductive success across landscapes. To illustrate, we surveyed the occurrence of grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the Canadian Rocky Mountains Alberta, Canada. We deployed camera traps for 6 weeks at 54 surveys sites in different types of land cover. We used hierarchical multistate occupancy models to estimate probability of detection, grizzly bear occupancy, and probability of reproductive success at each site. Grizzly bear occupancy varied among cover types and was greater in herbaceous alpine ecotones than in low-elevation wetlands or mid-elevation conifer forests. The conditional probability of reproductive success given grizzly bear occupancy was 30% (SE = 0.14). Grizzly bears with cubs had a higher probability of detection than grizzly bears without cubs, but sites were correctly classified as being occupied by breeding females 49% of the time based on raw data and thus would have been underestimated by half. Repeated surveys and multistate modeling reduced the probability of misclassifying sites occupied by breeders as unoccupied to grizzly bear occupancy varied across the landscape. Those patches with highest probabilities of breeding occupancy-herbaceous alpine ecotones-were small and highly dispersed and are projected to shrink as treelines advance due to climate warming. Understanding spatial correlates in breeding distribution is a key requirement for species conservation in the face of climate change and can help identify priorities for landscape management and protection. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.
Lowman, L.; Barros, A. P.
2014-12-01
Computational modeling of surface erosion processes is inherently difficult because of the four-dimensional nature of the problem and the multiple temporal and spatial scales that govern individual mechanisms. Landscapes are modified via surface and fluvial erosion and exhumation, each of which takes place over a range of time scales. Traditional field measurements of erosion/exhumation rates are scale dependent, often valid for a single point-wise location or averaging over large aerial extents and periods with intense and mild erosion. We present a method of remotely estimating erosion rates using a Bayesian hierarchical model based upon the stream power erosion law (SPEL). A Bayesian approach allows for estimating erosion rates using the deterministic relationship given by the SPEL and data on channel slopes and precipitation at the basin and sub-basin scale. The spatial scale associated with this framework is the elevation class, where each class is characterized by distinct morphologic behavior observed through different modes in the distribution of basin outlet elevations. Interestingly, the distributions of first-order outlets are similar in shape and extent to the distribution of precipitation events (i.e. individual storms) over a 14-year period between 1998-2011. We demonstrate an application of the Bayesian hierarchical modeling framework for five basins and one intermontane basin located in the central Andes between 5S and 20S. Using remotely sensed data of current annual precipitation rates from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and topography from a high resolution (3 arc-seconds) digital elevation map (DEM), our erosion rate estimates are consistent with decadal-scale estimates based on landslide mapping and sediment flux observations and 1-2 orders of magnitude larger than most millennial and million year timescale estimates from thermochronology and cosmogenic nuclides.
von Secker, Clare Elaine
The study of students at risk is a major topic of science education policy and discussion. Much research has focused on describing conditions and problems associated with the statistical risk of low science achievement among individuals who are members of groups characterized by problems such as poverty and social disadvantage. But outcomes attributed to these factors do not explain the nature and extent of mechanisms that account for differences in performance among individuals at risk. There is ample theoretical and empirical evidence that demographic differences should be conceptualized as social contexts, or collections of variables, that alter the psychological significance and social demands of life events, and affect subsequent relationships between risk and resilience. The hierarchical linear growth models used in this dissertation provide greater specification of the role of social context and the protective effects of attitude, expectations, parenting practices, peer influences, and learning opportunities on science achievement. While the individual influences of these protective factors on science achievement were small, their cumulative effect was substantial. Meta-analysis conducted on the effects associated with psychological and environmental processes that mediate risk mechanisms in sixteen social contexts revealed twenty-two significant differences between groups of students. Positive attitudes, high expectations, and more intense science course-taking had positive effects on achievement of all students, although these factors were not equally protective in all social contexts. In general, effects associated with authoritative parenting and peer influences were negative, regardless of social context. An evaluation comparing the performance and stability of hierarchical linear growth models with traditional repeated measures models is included as well.
Brysbaert, Marc; Duyck, Wouter
2010-01-01
The Revised Hierarchical Model (RHM) of bilingual language processing dominates current thinking on bilingual language processing. Recently, basic tenets of the model have been called into question. First, there is little evidence for separate lexicons. Second, there is little evidence for language selective access. Third, the inclusion of…
Reduced Rank Mixed Effects Models for Spatially Correlated Hierarchical Functional Data
Zhou, Lan
2010-03-01
Hierarchical functional data are widely seen in complex studies where sub-units are nested within units, which in turn are nested within treatment groups. We propose a general framework of functional mixed effects model for such data: within unit and within sub-unit variations are modeled through two separate sets of principal components; the sub-unit level functions are allowed to be correlated. Penalized splines are used to model both the mean functions and the principal components functions, where roughness penalties are used to regularize the spline fit. An EM algorithm is developed to fit the model, while the specific covariance structure of the model is utilized for computational efficiency to avoid storage and inversion of large matrices. Our dimension reduction with principal components provides an effective solution to the difficult tasks of modeling the covariance kernel of a random function and modeling the correlation between functions. The proposed methodology is illustrated using simulations and an empirical data set from a colon carcinogenesis study. Supplemental materials are available online.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Hea-Jung Kim
2017-06-01
Full Text Available This paper develops Bayesian inference in reliability of a class of scale mixtures of log-normal failure time (SMLNFT models with stochastic (or uncertain constraint in their reliability measures. The class is comprehensive and includes existing failure time (FT models (such as log-normal, log-Cauchy, and log-logistic FT models as well as new models that are robust in terms of heavy-tailed FT observations. Since classical frequency approaches to reliability analysis based on the SMLNFT model with stochastic constraint are intractable, the Bayesian method is pursued utilizing a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC sampling based approach. This paper introduces a two-stage maximum entropy (MaxEnt prior, which elicits a priori uncertain constraint and develops Bayesian hierarchical SMLNFT model by using the prior. The paper also proposes an MCMC method for Bayesian inference in the SMLNFT model reliability and calls attention to properties of the MaxEnt prior that are useful for method development. Finally, two data sets are used to illustrate how the proposed methodology works.
Hierarchically-coupled hidden Markov models for learning kinetic rates from single-molecule data
van de Meent, Jan-Willem; Wood, Frank; Gonzalez, Ruben L; Wiggins, Chris H
2013-01-01
We address the problem of analyzing sets of noisy time-varying signals that all report on the same process but confound straightforward analyses due to complex inter-signal heterogeneities and measurement artifacts. In particular we consider single-molecule experiments which indirectly measure the distinct steps in a biomolecular process via observations of noisy time-dependent signals such as a fluorescence intensity or bead position. Straightforward hidden Markov model (HMM) analyses attempt to characterize such processes in terms of a set of conformational states, the transitions that can occur between these states, and the associated rates at which those transitions occur; but require ad-hoc post-processing steps to combine multiple signals. Here we develop a hierarchically coupled HMM that allows experimentalists to deal with inter-signal variability in a principled and automatic way. Our approach is a generalized expectation maximization hyperparameter point estimation procedure with variational Bayes a...
LIMO EEG: a toolbox for hierarchical LInear MOdeling of ElectroEncephaloGraphic data.
Pernet, Cyril R; Chauveau, Nicolas; Gaspar, Carl; Rousselet, Guillaume A
2011-01-01
Magnetic- and electric-evoked brain responses have traditionally been analyzed by comparing the peaks or mean amplitudes of signals from selected channels and averaged across trials. More recently, tools have been developed to investigate single trial response variability (e.g., EEGLAB) and to test differences between averaged evoked responses over the entire scalp and time dimensions (e.g., SPM, Fieldtrip). LIMO EEG is a Matlab toolbox (EEGLAB compatible) to analyse evoked responses over all space and time dimensions, while accounting for single trial variability using a simple hierarchical linear modelling of the data. In addition, LIMO EEG provides robust parametric tests, therefore providing a new and complementary tool in the analysis of neural evoked responses.
LIMO EEG: A Toolbox for Hierarchical LInear MOdeling of ElectroEncephaloGraphic Data
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Cyril R. Pernet
2011-01-01
Full Text Available Magnetic- and electric-evoked brain responses have traditionally been analyzed by comparing the peaks or mean amplitudes of signals from selected channels and averaged across trials. More recently, tools have been developed to investigate single trial response variability (e.g., EEGLAB and to test differences between averaged evoked responses over the entire scalp and time dimensions (e.g., SPM, Fieldtrip. LIMO EEG is a Matlab toolbox (EEGLAB compatible to analyse evoked responses over all space and time dimensions, while accounting for single trial variability using a simple hierarchical linear modelling of the data. In addition, LIMO EEG provides robust parametric tests, therefore providing a new and complementary tool in the analysis of neural evoked responses.
A second gradient theoretical framework for hierarchical multiscale modeling of materials
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Luscher, Darby J [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Bronkhorst, Curt A [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Mc Dowell, David L [GEORGIA TECH
2009-01-01
A theoretical framework for the hierarchical multiscale modeling of inelastic response of heterogeneous materials has been presented. Within this multiscale framework, the second gradient is used as a non local kinematic link between the response of a material point at the coarse scale and the response of a neighborhood of material points at the fine scale. Kinematic consistency between these scales results in specific requirements for constraints on the fluctuation field. The wryness tensor serves as a second-order measure of strain. The nature of the second-order strain induces anti-symmetry in the first order stress at the coarse scale. The multiscale ISV constitutive theory is couched in the coarse scale intermediate configuration, from which an important new concept in scale transitions emerges, namely scale invariance of dissipation. Finally, a strategy for developing meaningful kinematic ISVs and the proper free energy functions and evolution kinetics is presented.
Heresi Milad, Eliana; Rivera Ottenberger, Diana; Huepe Artigas, David
2014-01-01
This study aimed to explore the associations among attachment system type, sexual satisfaction, and marital satisfaction in adult couples in stable relationships. Participants were 294 couples between the ages of 20 and 70 years who answered self-administered questionnaires. Hierarchical linear modeling revealed that the anxiety and avoidance, sexual satisfaction, and marital satisfaction dimensions were closely related. Specifically, the avoidance dimension, but not the anxiety dimension, corresponded to lower levels of sexual and marital satisfaction. Moreover, for the sexual satisfaction variable, an interaction effect was observed between the gender of the actor and avoidance of the partner, which was observed only in men. In the marital satisfaction dimension, effects were apparent only at the individual level; a positive relation was found between the number of years spent living together and greater contentment with the relationship. These results confirm the hypothetical association between attachment and sexual and marital satisfaction and demonstrate the relevance of methodologies when the unit of analysis is the couple.
Cohen, Alasdair; Zhang, Qi; Luo, Qing; Tao, Yong; Colford, John M; Ray, Isha
2017-06-20
Approximately two billion people drink unsafe water. Boiling is the most commonly used household water treatment (HWT) method globally and in China. HWT can make water safer, but sustained adoption is rare and bottled water consumption is growing. To successfully promote HWT, an understanding of associated socioeconomic factors is critical. We collected survey data and water samples from 450 rural households in Guangxi Province, China. Covariates were grouped into blocks to hierarchically construct modified Poisson models and estimate risk ratios (RR) associated with boiling methods, bottled water, and untreated water. Female-headed households were most likely to boil (RR = 1.36, p China's economy continues to grow then bottled water use will increase.
Improving the Calibration of the SN Ia Anchor Datasets with a Bayesian Hierarchal Model
Currie, Miles; Rubin, David
2018-01-01
Inter-survey calibration remains one of the largest systematic uncertainties in SN Ia cosmology today. Ideally, each survey would measure their system throughputs and observe well characterized spectrophotometric standard stars, but many important surveys have not done so. For these surveys, we calibrate using tertiary survey stars tied to SDSS and Pan-STARRS. We improve on previous efforts by taking the spatially variable response of each telescope/camera into account, and using improved color transformations in the surveys’ natural instrumental photometric system. We use a global hierarchical model of the data, automatically providing a covariance matrix of magnitude offsets and bandpass shifts which reduces the systematic uncertainty in inter-survey calibration, thereby providing better cosmological constraints.
A hierarchical model for estimating density in camera-trap studies
Royle, J. Andrew; Nichols, James D.; Karanth, K.Ullas; Gopalaswamy, Arjun M.
2009-01-01
Estimating animal density using capture–recapture data from arrays of detection devices such as camera traps has been problematic due to the movement of individuals and heterogeneity in capture probability among them induced by differential exposure to trapping.We develop a spatial capture–recapture model for estimating density from camera-trapping data which contains explicit models for the spatial point process governing the distribution of individuals and their exposure to and detection by traps.We adopt a Bayesian approach to analysis of the hierarchical model using the technique of data augmentation.The model is applied to photographic capture–recapture data on tigers Panthera tigris in Nagarahole reserve, India. Using this model, we estimate the density of tigers to be 14·3 animals per 100 km2 during 2004.Synthesis and applications. Our modelling framework largely overcomes several weaknesses in conventional approaches to the estimation of animal density from trap arrays. It effectively deals with key problems such as individual heterogeneity in capture probabilities, movement of traps, presence of potential ‘holes’ in the array and ad hoc estimation of sample area. The formulation, thus, greatly enhances flexibility in the conduct of field surveys as well as in the analysis of data, from studies that may involve physical, photographic or DNA-based ‘captures’ of individual animals.
Noh, Myoung-Jong; Howat, Ian M.
2018-02-01
The quality and efficiency of automated Digital Elevation Model (DEM) extraction from stereoscopic satellite imagery is critically dependent on the accuracy of the sensor model used for co-locating pixels between stereo-pair images. In the absence of ground control or manual tie point selection, errors in the sensor models must be compensated with increased matching search-spaces, increasing both the computation time and the likelihood of spurious matches. Here we present an algorithm for automatically determining and compensating the relative bias in Rational Polynomial Coefficients (RPCs) between stereo-pairs utilizing hierarchical, sub-pixel image matching in object space. We demonstrate the algorithm using a suite of image stereo-pairs from multiple satellites over a range stereo-photogrammetrically challenging polar terrains. Besides providing a validation of the effectiveness of the algorithm for improving DEM quality, experiments with prescribed sensor model errors yield insight into the dependence of DEM characteristics and quality on relative sensor model bias. This algorithm is included in the Surface Extraction through TIN-based Search-space Minimization (SETSM) DEM extraction software package, which is the primary software used for the U.S. National Science Foundation ArcticDEM and Reference Elevation Model of Antarctica (REMA) products.
Cruz-Marcelo, Alejandro; Ensor, Katherine B.; Rosner, Gary L.
2011-01-01
The term structure of interest rates is used to price defaultable bonds and credit derivatives, as well as to infer the quality of bonds for risk management purposes. We introduce a model that jointly estimates term structures by means of a Bayesian hierarchical model with a prior probability model based on Dirichlet process mixtures. The modeling methodology borrows strength across term structures for purposes of estimation. The main advantage of our framework is its ability to produce reliable estimators at the company level even when there are only a few bonds per company. After describing the proposed model, we discuss an empirical application in which the term structure of 197 individual companies is estimated. The sample of 197 consists of 143 companies with only one or two bonds. In-sample and out-of-sample tests are used to quantify the improvement in accuracy that results from approximating the term structure of corporate bonds with estimators by company rather than by credit rating, the latter being a popular choice in the financial literature. A complete description of a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) scheme for the proposed model is available as Supplementary Material. PMID:21765566
A Hierarchical Optimization Model for a Network of Electric Vehicle Charging Stations
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Cuiyu Kong
2017-05-01
Full Text Available Charging station location decisions are a critical element in mainstream adoption of electric vehicles (EVs. The consumer confidence in EVs can be boosted with the deployment of carefully-planned charging infrastructure that can fuel a fair number of trips. The charging station (CS location problem is complex and differs considerably from the classical facility location literature, as the decision parameters are additionally linked to a relatively longer charging period, battery parameters, and available grid resources. In this study, we propose a three-layered system model of fast charging stations (FCSs. In the first layer, we solve the flow capturing location problem to identify the locations of the charging stations. In the second layer, we use a queuing model and introduce a resource allocation framework to optimally provision the limited grid resources. In the third layer, we consider the battery charging dynamics and develop a station policy to maximize the profit by setting maximum charging levels. The model is evaluated on the Arizona state highway system and North Dakota state network with a gravity data model, and on the City of Raleigh, North Carolina, using real traffic data. The results show that the proposed hierarchical model improves the system performance, as well as the quality of service (QoS, provided to the customers. The proposed model can efficiently assist city planners for CS location selection and system design.
Probabilistic daily ILI syndromic surveillance with a spatio-temporal Bayesian hierarchical model.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ta-Chien Chan
Full Text Available BACKGROUND: For daily syndromic surveillance to be effective, an efficient and sensible algorithm would be expected to detect aberrations in influenza illness, and alert public health workers prior to any impending epidemic. This detection or alert surely contains uncertainty, and thus should be evaluated with a proper probabilistic measure. However, traditional monitoring mechanisms simply provide a binary alert, failing to adequately address this uncertainty. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Based on the Bayesian posterior probability of influenza-like illness (ILI visits, the intensity of outbreak can be directly assessed. The numbers of daily emergency room ILI visits at five community hospitals in Taipei City during 2006-2007 were collected and fitted with a Bayesian hierarchical model containing meteorological factors such as temperature and vapor pressure, spatial interaction with conditional autoregressive structure, weekend and holiday effects, seasonality factors, and previous ILI visits. The proposed algorithm recommends an alert for action if the posterior probability is larger than 70%. External data from January to February of 2008 were retained for validation. The decision rule detects successfully the peak in the validation period. When comparing the posterior probability evaluation with the modified Cusum method, results show that the proposed method is able to detect the signals 1-2 days prior to the rise of ILI visits. CONCLUSIONS: This Bayesian hierarchical model not only constitutes a dynamic surveillance system but also constructs a stochastic evaluation of the need to call for alert. The monitoring mechanism provides earlier detection as well as a complementary tool for current surveillance programs.
Hawkins, Keith; Leistedt, Boris; Bovy, Jo; Hogg, David W.
2017-10-01
Distances to individual stars in our own Galaxy are critical in order to piece together the nature of its velocity and spatial structure. Core helium burning red clump (RC) stars have similar luminosities, are abundant throughout the Galaxy and thus constitute good standard candles. We build a hierarchical probabilistic model to quantify the quality of RC stars as standard candles using parallax measurements from the first Gaia data release. A unique aspect of our methodology is to fully account for (and marginalize over) parallax, photometry and dust correction uncertainties, which lead to more robust results than standard approaches. We determine the absolute magnitude and intrinsic dispersion of the RC in 2MASS bands J, H, Ks, Gaia G band and WISE bands W1, W2, W3 and W4. We find that the absolute magnitude of the RC is -1.61 ± 0.01 (in Ks), +0.44 ± 0.01 (in G), -0.93 ± 0.01 (in J), -1.46 ± 0.01 (in H), -1.68 ± 0.02 (in W1), -1.69 ± 0.02 (in W2), -1.67 ± 0.02 (in W3) and -1.76 ± 0.01 mag (in W4). The mean intrinsic dispersion is ˜0.17 ± 0.03 mag across all bands (yielding a typical distance precision of ˜8 per cent). Thus RC stars are reliable and precise standard candles. In addition, we have also re-calibrated the zero-point of the absolute magnitude of the RC in each band, which provides a benchmark for future studies to estimate distances to RC stars. Finally, the parallax error shrinkage in the hierarchical model outlined in this work can be used to obtain more precise parallaxes than Gaia for the most distant RC stars across the Galaxy.
Fernández-Arjona, María Del Mar; Grondona, Jesús M; Granados-Durán, Pablo; Fernández-Llebrez, Pedro; López-Ávalos, María D
2017-01-01
It is known that microglia morphology and function are closely related, but only few studies have objectively described different morphological subtypes. To address this issue, morphological parameters of microglial cells were analyzed in a rat model of aseptic neuroinflammation. After the injection of a single dose of the enzyme neuraminidase (NA) within the lateral ventricle (LV) an acute inflammatory process occurs. Sections from NA-injected animals and sham controls were immunolabeled with the microglial marker IBA1, which highlights ramifications and features of the cell shape. Using images obtained by section scanning, individual microglial cells were sampled from various regions (septofimbrial nucleus, hippocampus and hypothalamus) at different times post-injection (2, 4 and 12 h). Each cell yielded a set of 15 morphological parameters by means of image analysis software. Five initial parameters (including fractal measures) were statistically different in cells from NA-injected rats (most of them IL-1β positive, i.e., M1-state) compared to those from control animals (none of them IL-1β positive, i.e., surveillant state). However, additional multimodal parameters were revealed more suitable for hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA). This method pointed out the classification of microglia population in four clusters. Furthermore, a linear discriminant analysis (LDA) suggested three specific parameters to objectively classify any microglia by a decision tree. In addition, a principal components analysis (PCA) revealed two extra valuable variables that allowed to further classifying microglia in a total of eight sub-clusters or types. The spatio-temporal distribution of these different morphotypes in our rat inflammation model allowed to relate specific morphotypes with microglial activation status and brain location. An objective method for microglia classification based on morphological parameters is proposed. Main points Microglia undergo a quantifiable
Mediation analysis for survival data using semiparametric probit models.
Huang, Yen-Tsung; Cai, Tianxi
2016-06-01
Causal mediation modeling has become a popular approach for studying the effect of an exposure on an outcome through mediators. Currently, the literature on mediation analyses with survival outcomes largely focused on settings with a single mediator and quantified the mediation effects on the hazard, log hazard and log survival time (Lange and Hansen 2011; VanderWeele 2011). In this article, we propose a multi-mediator model for survival data by employing a flexible semiparametric probit model. We characterize path-specific effects (PSEs) of the exposure on the outcome mediated through specific mediators. We derive closed form expressions for PSEs on a transformed survival time and the survival probabilities. Statistical inference on the PSEs is developed using a nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator under the semiparametric probit model and the functional Delta method. Results from simulation studies suggest that our proposed methods perform well in finite sample. We illustrate the utility of our method in a genomic study of glioblastoma multiforme survival. © 2015, The International Biometric Society.
Hierarchical models for estimating density from DNA mark-recapture studies.
Gardner, Beth; Royle, J Andrew; Wegan, Michael T
2009-04-01
Genetic sampling is increasingly used as a tool by wildlife biologists and managers to estimate abundance and density of species. Typically, DNA is used to identify individuals captured in an array of traps (e.g., baited hair snares) from which individual encounter histories are derived. Standard methods for estimating the size of a closed population can be applied to such data. However, due to the movement of individuals on and off the trapping array during sampling, the area over which individuals are exposed to trapping is unknown, and so obtaining unbiased estimates of density has proved difficult. We propose a hierarchical spatial capture-recapture model which contains explicit models for the spatial point process governing the distribution of individuals and their exposure to (via movement) and detection by traps. Detection probability is modeled as a function of each individual's distance to the trap. We applied this model to a black bear (Ursus americanus) study conducted in 2006 using a hair-snare trap array in the Adirondack region of New York, USA. We estimated the density of bears to be 0.159 bears/km2, which is lower than the estimated density (0.410 bears/km2) based on standard closed population techniques. A Bayesian analysis of the model is fully implemented in the software program WinBUGS.
Hierarchical Matching of Uncertain Building Models with Oblique View Airborne IR Image Sequences
Iwaszczuk, D.; Hoegner, L.; Schmitt, M.; Stilla, U.
2012-07-01
Thermal building textures can be used for detection of damaged and weak spots in the building structure. These textures can be extracted from airborne infrared (IR) image sequences by projecting the 3D building model into the images. However, the direct georeferencing is often not sufficiently accurate and the projected 3D model does not match the structures in the image. Thus we present a technique with the main goal to find the best fit between the existing 3D building model and the IR image sequence. For this purpose we developed a hierarchical approach consisting of two working stages. In the first stage we correct exterior orientation via line based matching. In the adjustment we consider both uncertainties: the ones of the model and the ones of the image. In the second stage we match each edge separately in its closest surrounding. Thanks to this approach a better fit between the 3D building model and the IR image was found. The originally unmodeled roof overlap was reconstructed.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Miller, N.L.
1993-01-01
The atmosphere and the biosphere are inherently coupled to one another. Atmospheric surface state variables such as temperature, winds, water vapor, precipitation, and radiation control biophysical, biogeochemical, and ecological processes at the surface and subsurface. At the same time, surface fluxes of momentum, moisture, heat, and trace gases act as time-dependent boundary conditions providing feedback on atmospheric processes. To understand such phenomena, a coupled set of interactive models is required. Costs are still prohibitive for computing surface/subsurface fluxes directly for medium-resolution atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs), but a technique has been developed for testing large-scale homogeneity and accessing surface parameterizations and models to reduce this computational cost and maintain accuracy. This modeling system potentially bridges the observed spatial and temporal ranges yet allows the incorporation of necessary details about individual ecological community types or biomes and simulates the net momentum, heat, moisture, and trace gas fluxes. This suite of coupled models is defined here as the hierarchical systems flux scheme (HSFS).
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Miller, N.L.
1993-12-31
The atmosphere and the biosphere are inherently coupled to one another. Atmospheric surface state variables such as temperature, winds, water vapor, precipitation, and radiation control biophysical, biogeochemical, and ecological processes at the surface and subsurface. At the same time, surface fluxes of momentum, moisture, heat, and trace gases act as time-dependent boundary conditions providing feedback on atmospheric processes. To understand such phenomena, a coupled set of interactive models is required. Costs are still prohibitive for computing surface/subsurface fluxes directly for medium-resolution atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs), but a technique has been developed for testing large-scale homogeneity and accessing surface parameterizations and models to reduce this computational cost and maintain accuracy. This modeling system potentially bridges the observed spatial and temporal ranges yet allows the incorporation of necessary details about individual ecological community types or biomes and simulates the net momentum, heat, moisture, and trace gas fluxes. This suite of coupled models is defined here as the hierarchical systems flux scheme (HSFS).
Millar, Russell B
2009-09-01
When replicate count data are overdispersed, it is common practice to incorporate this extra-Poisson variability by including latent parameters at the observation level. For example, the negative binomial and Poisson-lognormal (PLN) models are obtained by using gamma and lognormal latent parameters, respectively. Several recent publications have employed the deviance information criterion (DIC) to choose between these two models, with the deviance defined using the Poisson likelihood that is obtained from conditioning on these latent parameters. The results herein show that this use of DIC is inappropriate. Instead, DIC was seen to perform well if calculated using likelihood that was marginalized at the group level by integrating out the observation-level latent parameters. This group-level marginalization is explicit in the case of the negative binomial, but requires numerical integration for the PLN model. Similarly, DIC performed well to judge whether zero inflation was required when calculated using the group-marginalized form of the zero-inflated likelihood. In the context of comparing multilevel hierarchical models, the top-level DIC was obtained using likelihood that was further marginalized by additional integration over the group-level latent parameters, and the marginal densities of the models were calculated for the purpose of providing Bayes' factors. The computational viability and interpretability of these different measures is considered.
Hierarchical Sensor Placement Using Joint Entropy and the Effect of Modeling Error
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Maria Papadopoulou
2014-09-01
Full Text Available Good prediction of the behavior of wind around buildings improves designs for natural ventilation in warm climates. However wind modeling is complex, predictions are often inaccurate due to the large uncertainties in parameter values. The goal of this work is to enhance wind prediction around buildings using measurements through implementing a multiple-model system-identification approach. The success of system-identification approaches depends directly upon the location and number of sensors. Therefore, this research proposes a methodology for optimal sensor configuration based on hierarchical sensor placement involving calculations of prediction-value joint entropy. Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD models are generated to create a discrete population of possible wind-flow predictions, which are then used to identify optimal sensor locations. Optimal sensor configurations are revealed using the proposed methodology and considering the effect of systematic and spatially distributed modeling errors, as well as the common information between sensor locations. The methodology is applied to a full-scale case study and optimum configurations are evaluated for their ability to falsify models and improve predictions at locations where no measurements have been taken. It is concluded that a sensor placement strategy using joint entropy is able to lead to predictions of wind characteristics around buildings and capture short-term wind variability more effectively than sequential strategies, which maximize entropy.
A hierarchical neuronal model for generation and online recognition of birdsongs.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Izzet B Yildiz
2011-12-01
Full Text Available The neuronal system underlying learning, generation and recognition of song in birds is one of the best-studied systems in the neurosciences. Here, we use these experimental findings to derive a neurobiologically plausible, dynamic, hierarchical model of birdsong generation and transform it into a functional model of birdsong recognition. The generation model consists of neuronal rate models and includes critical anatomical components like the premotor song-control nucleus HVC (proper name, the premotor nucleus RA (robust nucleus of the arcopallium, and a model of the syringeal and respiratory organs. We use Bayesian inference of this dynamical system to derive a possible mechanism for how birds can efficiently and robustly recognize the songs of their conspecifics in an online fashion. Our results indicate that the specific way birdsong is generated enables a listening bird to robustly and rapidly perceive embedded information at multiple time scales of a song. The resulting mechanism can be useful for investigating the functional roles of auditory recognition areas and providing predictions for future birdsong experiments.
Local influence diagnostics for hierarchical count data models with overdispersion and excess zeros.
Rakhmawati, Trias Wahyuni; Molenberghs, Geert; Verbeke, Geert; Faes, Christel
2016-11-01
We consider models for hierarchical count data, subject to overdispersion and/or excess zeros. Molenberghs et al. () and Molenberghs et al. () extend the Poisson-normal generalized linear-mixed model by including gamma random effects to accommodate overdispersion. Excess zeros are handled using either a zero-inflation or a hurdle component. These models were studied by Kassahun et al. (). While flexible, they are quite elaborate in parametric specification and therefore model assessment is imperative. We derive local influence measures to detect and examine influential subjects, that is subjects who have undue influence on either the fit of the model as a whole, or on specific important sub-vectors of the parameter vector. The latter include the fixed effects for the Poisson and for the excess-zeros components, the variance components for the normal random effects, and the parameters describing gamma random effects, included to accommodate overdispersion. Interpretable influence components are derived. The method is applied to data from a longitudinal clinical trial involving patients with epileptic seizures. Even though the data were extensively analyzed in earlier work, the insight gained from the proposed diagnostics, statistically and clinically, is considerable. Possibly, a small but important subgroup of patients has been identified. © 2016 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Guiyang Xin
2015-09-01
Full Text Available This paper presents a novel hexapod robot, hereafter named PH-Robot, with three degrees of freedom (3-DOF parallel leg mechanisms based on the concept of an integrated limb mechanism (ILM for the integration of legged locomotion and arm manipulation. The kinematic model plays an important role in the parametric optimal design and motion planning of robots. However, models of parallel mechanisms are often difficult to obtain because of the implicit relationship between the motions of actuated joints and the motion of a moving platform. In order to derive the kinematic equations of the proposed hexapod robot, an extended hierarchical kinematic modelling method is proposed. According to the kinematic model, the geometrical parameters of the leg are optimized utilizing a comprehensive objective function that considers both dexterity and payload. PH-Robot has distinct advantages in accuracy and load ability over a robot with serial leg mechanisms through the former's comparison of performance indices. The reachable workspace of the leg verifies its ability to walk and manipulate. The results of the trajectory tracking experiment demonstrate the correctness of the kinematic model of the hexapod robot.
A two level hierarchical model of protein retention in ion exchange chromatography.
Salvalaglio, Matteo; Paloni, Matteo; Guelat, Bertrand; Morbidelli, Massimo; Cavallotti, Carlo
2015-09-11
Predicting protein retention in ion exchange chromatography (IEX) from first principles is a fascinating perspective. In this work a two level hierarchical modeling strategy is proposed in order to calculate protein retention factors. Model predictions are tested against experimental data measured for Lysozyme and Chymotrypsinogen A in IEX columns as a function of ionic strength and pH. At the highest level of accuracy Molecular Dynamics (MD) simulations in explicit water are used to determine the interaction free energy between each of the two proteins and the IEX stationary phase for a reference pH and ionic strength. At a lower level of accuracy a linear response model based on an implicit treatment of solvation and adopting a static protein structure is used to calculate interaction free energies for the full range of pHs and ionic strengths considered. A scaling coefficient, determined comparing MD and implicit solvent simulations, is then introduced in order to correct the linear response model for errors induced by the adoption of a static protein structure. The calculated free energies are then used to compute protein retention factors, which can be directly compared with experimental data. The possibility to introduce a third level of accuracy is explored testing the predictions of a semiempirical model. A quantitative agreement between the predicted and measured protein retention factors is obtained using the coupled MD-linear response models, supporting the reliability of the proposed approach. The model allows quantifying the electrostatic, van der Waals, and conformational contributions to the interaction free energies. A good agreement between experiments and model is obtained also using the semiempirical model that, although requiring parameterization over higher level models or experimental data, proves to be useful in order to rapidly determine protein retention factors across wide pH and ionic strength ranges as it is computationally inexpensive
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Fikse Freddy
2010-03-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background The sensitivity to microenvironmental changes varies among animals and may be under genetic control. It is essential to take this element into account when aiming at breeding robust farm animals. Here, linear mixed models with genetic effects in the residual variance part of the model can be used. Such models have previously been fitted using EM and MCMC algorithms. Results We propose the use of double hierarchical generalized linear models (DHGLM, where the squared residuals are assumed to be gamma distributed and the residual variance is fitted using a generalized linear model. The algorithm iterates between two sets of mixed model equations, one on the level of observations and one on the level of variances. The method was validated using simulations and also by re-analyzing a data set on pig litter size that was previously analyzed using a Bayesian approach. The pig litter size data contained 10,060 records from 4,149 sows. The DHGLM was implemented using the ASReml software and the algorithm converged within three minutes on a Linux server. The estimates were similar to those previously obtained using Bayesian methodology, especially the variance components in the residual variance part of the model. Conclusions We have shown that variance components in the residual variance part of a linear mixed model can be estimated using a DHGLM approach. The method enables analyses of animal models with large numbers of observations. An important future development of the DHGLM methodology is to include the genetic correlation between the random effects in the mean and residual variance parts of the model as a parameter of the DHGLM.
A Bayesian Hierarchical Model for Reconstructing Sea Levels: From Raw Data to Rates of Change
Cahill, Niamh; Horton, Benjamin P; Parnell, Andrew C
2015-01-01
We present a holistic Bayesian hierarchical model for reconstructing the continuous and dynamic evolution of relative sea-level (RSL) change with fully quantified uncertainty. The reconstruction is produced from biological (foraminifera) and geochemical ({\\delta}13C) sea-level indicators preserved in dated cores of salt-marsh sediment. Our model is comprised of three modules: (1) A Bayesian transfer function for the calibration of foraminifera into tidal elevation, which is flexible enough to formally accommodate additional proxies (in this case bulk-sediment {\\delta}13C values); (2) A chronology developed from an existing Bchron age-depth model, and (3) An existing errors-in-variables integrated Gaussian process (EIV-IGP) model for estimating rates of sea-level change. We illustrate our approach using a case study of Common Era sea-level variability from New Jersey, U.S.A. We develop a new Bayesian transfer function (B-TF), with and without the {\\delta}13C proxy and compare our results to those from a widely...
Dai, Heng; Chen, Xingyuan; Ye, Ming; Song, Xuehang; Zachara, John M.
2017-05-01
Sensitivity analysis is an important tool for development and improvement of mathematical models, especially for complex systems with a high dimension of spatially correlated parameters. Variance-based global sensitivity analysis has gained popularity because it can quantify the relative contribution of uncertainty from different sources. However, its computational cost increases dramatically with the complexity of the considered model and the dimension of model parameters. In this study, we developed a new sensitivity analysis method that integrates the concept of variance-based method with a hierarchical uncertainty quantification framework. Different uncertain inputs are grouped and organized into a multilayer framework based on their characteristics and dependency relationships to reduce the dimensionality of the sensitivity analysis. A set of new sensitivity indices are defined for the grouped inputs using the variance decomposition method. Using this methodology, we identified the most important uncertainty source for a dynamic groundwater flow and solute transport model at the Department of Energy (DOE) Hanford site. The results indicate that boundary conditions and permeability field contribute the most uncertainty to the simulated head field and tracer plume, respectively. The relative contribution from each source varied spatially and temporally. By using a geostatistical approach to reduce the number of realizations needed for the sensitivity analysis, the computational cost of implementing the developed method was reduced to a practically manageable level. The developed sensitivity analysis method is generally applicable to a wide range of hydrologic and environmental problems that deal with high-dimensional spatially distributed input variables.
Commeau, Natalie; Cornu, Marie; Albert, Isabelle; Denis, Jean-Baptiste; Parent, Eric
2012-03-01
Assessing within-batch and between-batch variability is of major interest for risk assessors and risk managers in the context of microbiological contamination of food. For example, the ratio between the within-batch variability and the between-batch variability has a large impact on the results of a sampling plan. Here, we designed hierarchical Bayesian models to represent such variability. Compatible priors were built mathematically to obtain sound model comparisons. A numeric criterion is proposed to assess the contamination structure comparing the ability of the models to replicate grouped data at the batch level using a posterior predictive loss approach. Models were applied to two case studies: contamination by Listeria monocytogenes of pork breast used to produce diced bacon and contamination by the same microorganism on cold smoked salmon at the end of the process. In the first case study, a contamination structure clearly exists and is located at the batch level, that is, between batches variability is relatively strong, whereas in the second a structure also exists but is less marked. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.
Rapid temporal accumulation in spider fear: Evidence from hierarchical drift diffusion modelling.
Tipples, Jason
2015-12-01
Fear can distort sense of time--making time seem slow or even stand still. Here, I used hierarchical drift diffusion modeling (HDDM; Vandekerckhove, Tuerlinckx, & Lee, 2008, 2011; Wiecki, Sofer, & Frank, 2013) to test the idea that temporal accumulation speeds up during fear. Eighteen high fearful and 23 low fearful participants judged the duration of both feared stimuli (spiders) and nonfeared stimuli (birds) in a temporal bisection task. The drift diffusion modeling results support the main hypothesis. In high but not low fearful individuals, evidence accumulated more rapidly toward a long duration decision-drift rates were higher-for spiders compared with birds. This result and further insights into how fear affects time perception would not have been possible on the basis of analyses of choice proportion data alone. Further results were interpreted in the context of a recent 2-stage model of time perception (Balcı & Simen, 2014). The results highlight the usefulness of diffusion modeling to test process-based explanations of disordered cognition in emotional disorders. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).
A hierarchical (multicomponent) model of in-group identification: examining in Russian samples.
Lovakov, Andrey V; Agadullina, Elena R; Osin, Evgeny N
2015-06-03
The aim of this study was to examine the validity and reliability of Leach et al.'s (2008) model of in-group identification in two studies using Russian samples (overall N = 621). In Study 1, a series of multi-group confirmatory factor analysis revealed that the hierarchical model of in-group identification, which included two second-order factors, self-definition (individual self-stereotyping, and in-group homogeneity) and self-investment (satisfaction, solidarity, and centrality), fitted the data well for all four group identities (ethnic, religious, university, and gender) (CFI > .93, TLI > .92, RMSEA < .06, SRMR < .06) and demonstrated a better fit, compared to the alternative models. In Study 2, the construct validity and reliability of the Russian version of the in-group identification measure was examined. Results show that these measures have adequate psychometric properties. In short, our results show that Leach et al.'s model is reproduced in Russian culture. The Russian version of this measure can be recommended for use in future in-group research in Russian-speaking samples.
A Hierarchical Building Segmentation in Digital Surface Models for 3D Reconstruction
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yiming Yan
2017-01-01
Full Text Available In this study, a hierarchical method for segmenting buildings in a digital surface model (DSM, which is used in a novel framework for 3D reconstruction, is proposed. Most 3D reconstructions of buildings are model-based. However, the limitations of these methods are overreliance on completeness of the offline-constructed models of buildings, and the completeness is not easily guaranteed since in modern cities buildings can be of a variety of types. Therefore, a model-free framework using high precision DSM and texture-images buildings was introduced. There are two key problems with this framework. The first one is how to accurately extract the buildings from the DSM. Most segmentation methods are limited by either the terrain factors or the difficult choice of parameter-settings. A level-set method are employed to roughly find the building regions in the DSM, and then a recently proposed ‘occlusions of random textures model’ are used to enhance the local segmentation of the buildings. The second problem is how to generate the facades of buildings. Synergizing with the corresponding texture-images, we propose a roof-contour guided interpolation of building facades. The 3D reconstruction results achieved by airborne-like images and satellites are compared. Experiments show that the segmentation method has good performance, and 3D reconstruction is easily performed by our framework, and better visualization results can be obtained by airborne-like images, which can be further replaced by UAV images.
Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification for Subsurface Inversion Using a Multiscale Hierarchical Model
Mondal, Anirban
2014-07-03
We consider a Bayesian approach to nonlinear inverse problems in which the unknown quantity is a random field (spatial or temporal). The Bayesian approach contains a natural mechanism for regularization in the form of prior information, can incorporate information from heterogeneous sources and provide a quantitative assessment of uncertainty in the inverse solution. The Bayesian setting casts the inverse solution as a posterior probability distribution over the model parameters. The Karhunen-Loeve expansion is used for dimension reduction of the random field. Furthermore, we use a hierarchical Bayes model to inject multiscale data in the modeling framework. In this Bayesian framework, we show that this inverse problem is well-posed by proving that the posterior measure is Lipschitz continuous with respect to the data in total variation norm. Computational challenges in this construction arise from the need for repeated evaluations of the forward model (e.g., in the context of MCMC) and are compounded by high dimensionality of the posterior. We develop two-stage reversible jump MCMC that has the ability to screen the bad proposals in the first inexpensive stage. Numerical results are presented by analyzing simulated as well as real data from hydrocarbon reservoir. This article has supplementary material available online. © 2014 American Statistical Association and the American Society for Quality.
Zhao, Y. W.; Yang, Z. F.
2009-04-01
Due to the increasingly serious ecological degradation of river systems, the river health research has attracted more and more attention of the researchers and decision-makers. This paper aims to integrate the fuzzy assessment method with analytic hierarchy process to establish the integrative fuzzy hierarchical assessment model, thus combing qualitative analysis and quantitative assessment and overcoming the disadvantages of subjectivity of the previous evaluation methods. The results show that the proposed assessment method is able to reveal how the river system is disturbed by human activities. Finally, the integrative fuzzy hierarchical method is validated and applied to the case study of Yong River in Ningbo City, China.
A hierarchical Bayesian GEV model for improving local and regional flood quantile estimates
Lima, Carlos H. R.; Lall, Upmanu; Troy, Tara; Devineni, Naresh
2016-10-01
We estimate local and regional Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution parameters for flood frequency analysis in a multilevel, hierarchical Bayesian framework, to explicitly model and reduce uncertainties. As prior information for the model, we assume that the GEV location and scale parameters for each site come from independent log-normal distributions, whose mean parameter scales with the drainage area. From empirical and theoretical arguments, the shape parameter for each site is shrunk towards a common mean. Non-informative prior distributions are assumed for the hyperparameters and the MCMC method is used to sample from the joint posterior distribution. The model is tested using annual maximum series from 20 streamflow gauges located in an 83,000 km2 flood prone basin in Southeast Brazil. The results show a significant reduction of uncertainty estimates of flood quantile estimates over the traditional GEV model, particularly for sites with shorter records. For return periods within the range of the data (around 50 years), the Bayesian credible intervals for the flood quantiles tend to be narrower than the classical confidence limits based on the delta method. As the return period increases beyond the range of the data, the confidence limits from the delta method become unreliable and the Bayesian credible intervals provide a way to estimate satisfactory confidence bands for the flood quantiles considering parameter uncertainties and regional information. In order to evaluate the applicability of the proposed hierarchical Bayesian model for regional flood frequency analysis, we estimate flood quantiles for three randomly chosen out-of-sample sites and compare with classical estimates using the index flood method. The posterior distributions of the scaling law coefficients are used to define the predictive distributions of the GEV location and scale parameters for the out-of-sample sites given only their drainage areas and the posterior distribution of the
Qasem, Mousa; Foote, Rebecca
2010-01-01
This study tested the predictions of the revised hierarchical (RHM) and morphological decomposition (MDM) models with Arabic-English bilinguals. The RHM (Kroll & Stewart, 1994) predicts that the amount of activation of first language translation equivalents is negatively correlated with second language (L2) proficiency. The MDM (Frost, Forster, &…
Ishitani, Terry T.
2010-01-01
This study applied hierarchical linear modeling to investigate the effect of congruence on intrinsic and extrinsic aspects of job satisfaction. Particular focus was given to differences in job satisfaction by gender and by Holland's first-letter codes. The study sample included nationally represented 1462 female and 1280 male college graduates who…
Nowak, Christoph; Heinrichs, Nina
2008-01-01
A meta-analysis encompassing all studies evaluating the impact of the Triple P-Positive Parenting Program on parent and child outcome measures was conducted in an effort to identify variables that moderate the program's effectiveness. Hierarchical linear models (HLM) with three levels of data were employed to analyze effect sizes. The results (N =…
Ognibene, Dimitri; Giglia, Giuseppe
2015-01-01
An integrative account of MTS could be cast in terms of hierarchical Bayesian inference. It may help to highlight a central role of sensory (tactile) precision could play in MTS. We suggest that anosognosic patients, with anesthetic hemisoma, can also be interpreted as a form of acquired MTS, providing additional data for the model.
Teacher characteristics and student performance: An analysis using hierarchical linear modelling
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Paula Armstrong
2015-12-01
Full Text Available This research makes use of hierarchical linear modelling to investigate which teacher characteristics are significantly associated with student performance. Using data from the SACMEQ III study of 2007, an interesting and potentially important finding is that younger teachers are better able to improve the mean mathematics performance of their students. Furthermore, younger teachers themselves perform better on subject tests than do their older counterparts. Identical models are run for Sub Saharan countries bordering on South Africa, as well for Kenya and the strong relationship between teacher age and student performance is not observed. Similarly, the model is run for South Africa using data from SACMEQ II (conducted in 2002 and the relationship between teacher age and student performance is also not observed. It must be noted that South African teachers were not tested in SACMEQ II so it was not possible to observe differences in subject knowledge amongst teachers in different cohorts and it was not possible to control for teachers’ level of subject knowledge when observing the relationship between teacher age and student performance. Changes in teacher education in the late 1990s and early 2000s may explain the differences in the performance of younger teachers relative to their older counterparts observed in the later dataset.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Xulin Guo
2013-02-01
Full Text Available Over 50% of world’s population presently resides in cities, and this number is expected to rise to ~70% by 2050. Increasing urbanization problems including population growth, urban sprawl, land use change, unemployment, and environmental degradation, have markedly impacted urban residents’ Quality of Life (QOL. Therefore, urban sustainability and its measurement have gained increasing attention from administrators, urban planners, and scientific communities throughout the world with respect to improving urban development and human well-being. The widely accepted definition of urban sustainability emphasizes the balancing development of three primary domains (urban economy, society, and environment. This article attempts to improve the aforementioned definition of urban sustainability by incorporating a human well-being dimension. Major problems identified in existing urban sustainability indicator (USI models include a weak integration of potential indicators, poor measurement and quantification, and insufficient spatial-temporal analysis. To tackle these challenges an integrated USI model based on a hierarchical indices system was established for monitoring and evaluating urban sustainability. This model can be performed by quantifying indicators using both traditional statistical approaches and advanced geomatic techniques based on satellite imagery and census data, which aims to provide a theoretical basis for a comprehensive assessment of urban sustainability from a spatial-temporal perspective.
Factors associated with leisure time physical inactivity in black individuals: hierarchical model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Francisco José Gondim Pitanga
2014-09-01
Full Text Available Background. A number of studies have shown that the black population exhibits higher levels of leisure-time physical inactivity (LTPI, but few have investigated the factors associated with this behavior.Objective. The aim of this study was to analyze associated factors and the explanatory model proposed for LTPI in black adults.Methods. The design was cross-sectional with a sample of 2,305 adults from 20–96 years of age, 902 (39.1% men, living in the city of Salvador, Brazil. LTPI was analyzed using the International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPAQ. A hierarchical model was built with the possible factors associated with LTPI, distributed in distal (age and sex, intermediate 1 (socioeconomic status, educational level and marital status, intermediate 2 (perception of safety/violence in the neighborhood, racial discrimination in private settings and physical activity at work and proximal blocks (smoking and participation in Carnival block rehearsals. We estimated crude and adjusted odds ratio (OR using logistic regression.Results. The variables inversely associated with LTPI were male gender, socioeconomic status and secondary/university education, although the proposed model explains only 4.2% of LTPI.Conclusions. We conclude that male gender, higher education and socioeconomic status can reduce LTPI in black adults.
Lopez, Michael J; Schuckers, Michael
2017-05-01
Roughly 14% of regular season National Hockey League games since the 2005-06 season have been decided by a shoot-out, and the resulting allocation of points has impacted play-off races each season. But despite interest from fans, players and league officials, there is little in the way of published research on team or individual shoot-out performance. This manuscript attempts to fill that void. We present both generalised linear mixed model and Bayesian hierarchical model frameworks to model shoot-out outcomes, with results suggesting that there are (i) small but statistically significant talent gaps between shooters, (ii) marginal differences in performance among netminders and (iii) few, if any, predictors of player success after accounting for individual talent. We also provide a resampling strategy to highlight a selection bias with respect to shooter assignment, in which coaches choose their most skilled offensive players early in shoot-out rounds and are less likely to select players with poor past performances. Finally, given that per-shot data for shoot-outs do not currently exist in a single location for public use, we provide both our data and source code for other researchers interested in studying shoot-out outcomes.
A Bayesian hierarchical model for discrete choice data in health care.
Antonio, Anna Liza M; Weiss, Robert E; Saigal, Christopher S; Dahan, Ely; Crespi, Catherine M
2017-01-01
In discrete choice experiments, patients are presented with sets of health states described by various attributes and asked to make choices from among them. Discrete choice experiments allow health care researchers to study the preferences of individual patients by eliciting trade-offs between different aspects of health-related quality of life. However, many discrete choice experiments yield data with incomplete ranking information and sparsity due to the limited number of choice sets presented to each patient, making it challenging to estimate patient preferences. Moreover, methods to identify outliers in discrete choice data are lacking. We develop a Bayesian hierarchical random effects rank-ordered multinomial logit model for discrete choice data. Missing ranks are accounted for by marginalizing over all possible permutations of unranked alternatives to estimate individual patient preferences, which are modeled as a function of patient covariates. We provide a Bayesian version of relative attribute importance, and adapt the use of the conditional predictive ordinate to identify outlying choice sets and outlying individuals with unusual preferences compared to the population. The model is applied to data from a study using a discrete choice experiment to estimate individual patient preferences for health states related to prostate cancer treatment.
Teno, J M; Harrell, F E; Knaus, W; Phillips, R S; Wu, A W; Connors, A; Wenger, N S; Wagner, D; Galanos, A; Desbiens, N A; Lynn, J
2000-05-01
To develop and validate a model estimating the survival time of hospitalized persons aged 80 years and older. A prospective cohort study with mortality follow-up using the National Death Index. Four teaching hospitals in the US. Hospitalized patients enrolled between January 1993 and November 1994 in the Hospitalized Elderly Longitudinal Project (HELP). Patients were excluded if their length of hospital stay was 48 hours or less or if admitted electively for planned surgery. A log-normal model of survival time up to 711 days was developed with the following variables: patient demographics, disease category, nursing home residence, severity of physiologic imbalance, chart documentation of weight loss, current quality of life, exercise capacity, and functional status. We assessed whether model accuracy could be improved by including symptoms of depression or history of recent fall, serum albumin, physician's subjective estimate of prognosis, and physician and patient preferences for general approach to care. A total of 1266 patients were enrolled over a 10-month period, (median age 84.9, 61% female, 68% with one or more dependency), and 505 (40%) died during an average follow-up of more than 2 years. Important prognostic factors included the Acute Physiology Score of APACHE III collected on the third hospital day, modified Glasgow coma score, major diagnosis (ICU categories together, congestive heart failure, cancer, orthopedic, and all other), age, activities of daily living, exercise capacity, chart documentation of weight loss, and global quality of life. The Somers' Dxy for a model including these factors was 0.48 (equivalent to a receiver-operator curve (ROC) area of 0.74, suggesting good discrimination). Bootstrap estimation indicated good model validation (corrected Dxy of 0.46, ROC of 0.73). A nomogram based on this log-normal model is presented to facilitate calculation of median survival time and 10th and 90th percentile of survival time. A count of
Application of hierarchical Bayesian unmixing models in river sediment source apportionment
Blake, Will; Smith, Hugh; Navas, Ana; Bodé, Samuel; Goddard, Rupert; Zou Kuzyk, Zou; Lennard, Amy; Lobb, David; Owens, Phil; Palazon, Leticia; Petticrew, Ellen; Gaspar, Leticia; Stock, Brian; Boeckx, Pacsal; Semmens, Brice
2016-04-01
Fingerprinting and unmixing concepts are used widely across environmental disciplines for forensic evaluation of pollutant sources. In aquatic and marine systems, this includes tracking the source of organic and inorganic pollutants in water and linking problem sediment to soil erosion and land use sources. It is, however, the particular complexity of ecological systems that has driven creation of the most sophisticated mixing models, primarily to (i) evaluate diet composition in complex ecological food webs, (ii) inform population structure and (iii) explore animal movement. In the context of the new hierarchical Bayesian unmixing model, MIXSIAR, developed to characterise intra-population niche variation in ecological systems, we evaluate the linkage between ecological 'prey' and 'consumer' concepts and river basin sediment 'source' and sediment 'mixtures' to exemplify the value of ecological modelling tools to river basin science. Recent studies have outlined advantages presented by Bayesian unmixing approaches in handling complex source and mixture datasets while dealing appropriately with uncertainty in parameter probability distributions. MixSIAR is unique in that it allows individual fixed and random effects associated with mixture hierarchy, i.e. factors that might exert an influence on model outcome for mixture groups, to be explored within the source-receptor framework. This offers new and powerful ways of interpreting river basin apportionment data. In this contribution, key components of the model are evaluated in the context of common experimental designs for sediment fingerprinting studies namely simple, nested and distributed catchment sampling programmes. Illustrative examples using geochemical and compound specific stable isotope datasets are presented and used to discuss best practice with specific attention to (1) the tracer selection process, (2) incorporation of fixed effects relating to sample timeframe and sediment type in the modelling
Cross, Paul C.; Maichak, Eric J.; Rogerson, Jared D.; Irvine, Kathryn M.; Jones, Jennifer D; Heisey, Dennis M.; Edwards, William H.; Scurlock, Brandon M.
2015-01-01
Understanding the seasonal timing of disease transmission can lead to more effective control strategies, but the seasonality of transmission is often unknown for pathogens transmitted directly. We inserted vaginal implant transmitters (VITs) in 575 elk (Cervus elaphus canadensis) from 2006 to 2014 to assess when reproductive failures (i.e., abortions or still births) occur, which is the primary transmission route of Brucella abortus, the causative agent of brucellosis in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. Using a survival analysis framework, we developed a Bayesian hierarchical model that simultaneously estimated the total baseline hazard of a reproductive event as well as its 2 mutually exclusive parts (abortions or live births). Approximately, 16% (95% CI = 0.10, 0.23) of the pregnant seropositive elk had reproductive failures, whereas 2% (95% CI = 0.01, 0.04) of the seronegative elk had probable abortions. Reproductive failures could have occurred as early as 13 February and as late as 10 July, peaking from March through May. Model results suggest that less than 5% of likely abortions occurred after 6 June each year and abortions were approximately 5 times more likely in March, April, or May compared to February or June. In western Wyoming, supplemental feeding of elk begins in December and ends during the peak of elk abortions and brucellosis transmission (i.e., Mar and Apr). Years with more snow may enhance elk-to-elk transmission on supplemental feeding areas because elk are artificially aggregated for the majority of the transmission season. Elk-to-cattle transmission will depend on the transmission period relative to the end of the supplemental feeding season, elk seroprevalence, population size, and the amount of commingling. Our statistical approach allowed us to estimate the probability density function of different event types over time, which may be applicable to other cause-specific survival analyses. It is often challenging to assess the
Boyer, Tim C.; Tim Hanson; Singer, Randall S.
2013-01-01
Analysis of gene quantities measured by quantitative real-time PCR (qPCR) can be complicated by observations that are below the limit of quantification (LOQ) of the assay. A hierarchical model estimated using MCMC methods was developed to analyze qPCR data of genes with observations that fall below the LOQ (censored observations). Simulated datasets with moderate to very high levels of censoring were used to assess the performance of the model; model results were compared to approaches that r...
Hierarchical Model for the Similarity Measurement of a Complex Holed-Region Entity Scene
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Zhanlong Chen
2017-11-01
Full Text Available Complex multi-holed-region entity scenes (i.e., sets of random region with holes are common in spatial database systems, spatial query languages, and the Geographic Information System (GIS. A multi-holed-region (region with an arbitrary number of holes is an abstraction of the real world that primarily represents geographic objects that have more than one interior boundary, such as areas that contain several lakes or lakes that contain islands. When the similarity of the two complex holed-region entity scenes is measured, the number of regions in the scenes and the number of holes in the regions are usually different between the two scenes, which complicates the matching relationships of holed-regions and holes. The aim of this research is to develop several holed-region similarity metrics and propose a hierarchical model to measure comprehensively the similarity between two complex holed-region entity scenes. The procedure first divides a complex entity scene into three layers: a complex scene, a micro-spatial-scene, and a simple entity (hole. The relationships between the adjacent layers are considered to be sets of relationships, and each level of similarity measurements is nested with the adjacent one. Next, entity matching is performed from top to bottom, while the similarity results are calculated from local to global. In addition, we utilize position graphs to describe the distribution of the holed-regions and subsequently describe the directions between the holes using a feature matrix. A case study that uses the Great Lakes in North America in 1986 and 2015 as experimental data illustrates the entire similarity measurement process between two complex holed-region entity scenes. The experimental results show that the hierarchical model accounts for the relationships of the different layers in the entire complex holed-region entity scene. The model can effectively calculate the similarity of complex holed-region entity scenes, even if the
Lingga, Marwan Mossa
A strong trend of returning to nuclear power is evident in different places in the world. Forty-five countries are planning to add nuclear power to their grids and more than 66 nuclear power plants are under construction. Nuclear power plants that generate electricity and steam need to improve safety to become more acceptable to governments and the public. One novel practical solution to increase nuclear power plants' safety factor is to build them away from urban areas, such as offshore or underground. To date, Land-Based siting is the dominant option for siting all commercial operational nuclear power plants. However, the literature reveals several options for building nuclear power plants in safer sitings than Land-Based sitings. The alternatives are several and each has advantages and disadvantages, and it is difficult to distinguish among them and choose the best for a specific project. In this research, we recall the old idea of using the alternatives of offshore and underground sitings for new nuclear power plants and propose a tool to help in choosing the best siting technology. This research involved the development of a decision model for evaluating several potential nuclear power plant siting technologies, both those that are currently available and future ones. The decision model was developed based on the Hierarchical Decision Modeling (HDM) methodology. The model considers five major dimensions, social, technical, economic, environmental, and political (STEEP), and their related criteria and sub-criteria. The model was designed and developed by the author, and its elements' validation and evaluation were done by a large number of experts in the field of nuclear energy. The decision model was applied in evaluating five potential siting technologies and ranked the Natural Island as the best in comparison to Land-Based, Floating Plant, Artificial Island, and Semi-Embedded plant.
Kreft, I G
1994-01-01
This chapter reports on an application of a multilevel analysis. A multilevel analysis is a data analysis that uses variables that are measured at different levels of the hierarchy. A hierarchy can have many levels, such as student level, class level, school level, and State or country level, where students are nested within classes, classes are nested within schools or school districts, and school districts can be nested within towns, States, or countries. As soon as one pays attention, hierarchies are present in all data. In large-scale prevention research, researchers usually have information about two or more levels involved, for instance, variables describing individuals (such as achievement, drug use, gender, and measures of socioeconomic status or home environment); variables describing schools (such as school environment, urban versus rural, and type of treatment administered); and perhaps variables describing districts, States, or countries. It is well known that the analysis of variables (i.e., measures at different levels of the hierarchy) on any of these levels separately can be misleading, as will be shown in this chapter. It is more satisfactory to construct a model and technique that simultaneously take information on all levels into account. This chapter introduces such a multilevel model for hierarchically nested data by evaluating the effect of a drug prevention program, Normative Education (NORM), wherein data are collected on students nested within schools. The model is a linear regression model. The difference between this model and the traditional linear regression model is that it takes the intraclass correlation into account and treats variables measured at different levels of the hierarchy in a more appropriate way.
Jin, Ick Hoon; Yuan, Ying; Bandyopadhyay, Dipankar
2016-01-01
Research in dental caries generates data with two levels of hierarchy: that of a tooth overall and that of the different surfaces of the tooth. The outcomes often exhibit spatial referencing among neighboring teeth and surfaces, i.e., the disease status of a tooth or surface might be influenced by the status of a set of proximal teeth/surfaces. Assessments of dental caries (tooth decay) at the tooth level yield binary outcomes indicating the presence/absence of teeth, and trinary outcomes at the surface level indicating healthy, decayed, or filled surfaces. The presence of these mixed discrete responses complicates the data analysis under a unified framework. To mitigate complications, we develop a Bayesian two-level hierarchical model under suitable (spatial) Markov random field assumptions that accommodates the natural hierarchy within the mixed responses. At the first level, we utilize an autologistic model to accommodate the spatial dependence for the tooth-level binary outcomes. For the second level and conditioned on a tooth being non-missing, we utilize a Potts model to accommodate the spatial referencing for the surface-level trinary outcomes. The regression models at both levels were controlled for plausible covariates (risk factors) of caries, and remain connected through shared parameters. To tackle the computational challenges in our Bayesian estimation scheme caused due to the doubly-intractable normalizing constant, we employ a double Metropolis-Hastings sampler. We compare and contrast our model performances to the standard non-spatial (naive) model using a small simulation study, and illustrate via an application to a clinical dataset on dental caries.
Statistical models and methods for reliability and survival analysis
Couallier, Vincent; Huber-Carol, Catherine; Mesbah, Mounir; Huber -Carol, Catherine; Limnios, Nikolaos; Gerville-Reache, Leo
2013-01-01
Statistical Models and Methods for Reliability and Survival Analysis brings together contributions by specialists in statistical theory as they discuss their applications providing up-to-date developments in methods used in survival analysis, statistical goodness of fit, stochastic processes for system reliability, amongst others. Many of these are related to the work of Professor M. Nikulin in statistics over the past 30 years. The authors gather together various contributions with a broad array of techniques and results, divided into three parts - Statistical Models and Methods, Statistical
Body-wide hierarchical fuzzy modeling, recognition, and delineation of anatomy in medical images.
Udupa, Jayaram K; Odhner, Dewey; Zhao, Liming; Tong, Yubing; Matsumoto, Monica M S; Ciesielski, Krzysztof C; Falcao, Alexandre X; Vaideeswaran, Pavithra; Ciesielski, Victoria; Saboury, Babak; Mohammadianrasanani, Syedmehrdad; Sin, Sanghun; Arens, Raanan; Torigian, Drew A
2014-07-01
To make Quantitative Radiology (QR) a reality in radiological practice, computerized body-wide Automatic Anatomy Recognition (AAR) becomes essential. With the goal of building a general AAR system that is not tied to any specific organ system, body region, or image modality, this paper presents an AAR methodology for localizing and delineating all major organs in different body regions based on fuzzy modeling ideas and a tight integration of fuzzy models with an Iterative Relative Fuzzy Connectedness (IRFC) delineation algorithm. The methodology consists of five main steps: (a) gathering image data for both building models and testing the AAR algorithms from patient image sets existing in our health system; (b) formulating precise definitions of each body region and organ and delineating them following these definitions; (c) building hierarchical fuzzy anatomy models of organs for each body region; (d) recognizing and locating organs in given images by employing the hierarchical models; and (e) delineating the organs following the hierarchy. In Step (c), we explicitly encode object size and positional relationships into the hierarchy and subsequently exploit this information in object recognition in Step (d) and delineation in Step (e). Modality-independent and dependent aspects are carefully separated in model encoding. At the model building stage, a learning process is carried out for rehearsing an optimal threshold-based object recognition method. The recognition process in Step (d) starts from large, well-defined objects and proceeds down the hierarchy in a global to local manner. A fuzzy model-based version of the IRFC algorithm is created by naturally integrating the fuzzy model constraints into the delineation algorithm. The AAR system is tested on three body regions - thorax (on CT), abdomen (on CT and MRI), and neck (on MRI and CT) - involving a total of over 35 organs and 130 data sets (the total used for model building and testing). The training and
Estimating survival of dental fillings on the basis of interval-censored data and multi-state models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Joly, Pierre; Gerds, Thomas A; Qvist, Vibeke
2012-01-01
We aim to compare the life expectancy of a filling in a primary tooth between two types of treatments. We define the probabilities that a dental filling survives without complication until the permanent tooth erupts from beneath (exfoliation). We relate the time to exfoliation of the tooth...... with all these particularities, we propose to use a parametric four-state model with three random effects to take into account the hierarchical cluster structure. For inference, right and interval censoring as well as left truncation have to be dealt with. With the proposed approach, we can conclude...
Micromechanics of hierarchical materials
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Mishnaevsky, Leon, Jr.
2012-01-01
A short overview of micromechanical models of hierarchical materials (hybrid composites, biomaterials, fractal materials, etc.) is given. Several examples of the modeling of strength and damage in hierarchical materials are summarized, among them, 3D FE model of hybrid composites...... with nanoengineered matrix, fiber bundle model of UD composites with hierarchically clustered fibers and 3D multilevel model of wood considered as a gradient, cellular material with layered composite cell walls. The main areas of research in micromechanics of hierarchical materials are identified, among them......, the investigations of the effects of load redistribution between reinforcing elements at different scale levels, of the possibilities to control different material properties and to ensure synergy of strengthening effects at different scale levels and using the nanoreinforcement effects. The main future directions...
Michou, Aikaterini; Vansteenkiste, Maarten; Mouratidis, Athanasios; Lens, Willy
2014-12-01
The hierarchical model of achievement motivation presumes that achievement goals channel the achievement motives of need for achievement and fear of failure towards motivational outcomes. Yet, less is known whether autonomous and controlling reasons underlying the pursuit of achievement goals can serve as additional pathways between achievement motives and outcomes. We tested whether mastery approach, performance approach, and performance avoidance goals and their underlying autonomous and controlling reasons would jointly explain the relation between achievement motives (i.e., fear of failure and need for achievement) and learning strategies (Study 1). Additionally, we examined whether the autonomous and controlling reasons underlying learners' dominant achievement goal would account for the link between achievement motives and the educational outcomes of learning strategies and cheating (Study 2). Six hundred and six Greek adolescent students (Mage = 15.05, SD = 1.43) and 435 university students (Mage M = 20.51, SD = 2.80) participated in studies 1 and 2, respectively. In both studies, a correlational design was used and the hypotheses were tested via path modelling. Autonomous and controlling reasons underlying the pursuit of achievement goals mediated, respectively, the relation of need for achievement and fear of failure to aspects of learning outcomes. Autonomous and controlling reasons underlying achievement goals could further explain learners' functioning in achievement settings. © 2014 The British Psychological Society.
Zhao, Rui; Catalano, Paul; DeGruttola, Victor G; Michor, Franziska
2017-01-01
The dynamics of tumor burden, secreted proteins or other biomarkers over time, is often used to evaluate the effectiveness of therapy and to predict outcomes for patients. Many methods have been proposed to investigate longitudinal trends to better characterize patients and to understand disease progression. However, most approaches assume a homogeneous patient population and a uniform response trajectory over time and across patients. Here, we present a mixture piecewise linear Bayesian hierarchical model, which takes into account both population heterogeneity and nonlinear relationships between biomarkers and time. Simulation results show that our method was able to classify subjects according to their patterns of treatment response with greater than 80% accuracy in the three scenarios tested. We then applied our model to a large randomized controlled phase III clinical trial of multiple myeloma patients. Analysis results suggest that the longitudinal tumor burden trajectories in multiple myeloma patients are heterogeneous and nonlinear, even among patients assigned to the same treatment cohort. In addition, between cohorts, there are distinct differences in terms of the regression parameters and the distributions among categories in the mixture. Those results imply that longitudinal data from clinical trials may harbor unobserved subgroups and nonlinear relationships; accounting for both may be important for analyzing longitudinal data.
Motivation, Classroom Environment, and Learning in Introductory Geology: A Hierarchical Linear Model
Gilbert, L. A.; Hilpert, J. C.; Van Der Hoeven Kraft, K.; Budd, D.; Jones, M. H.; Matheney, R.; Mcconnell, D. A.; Perkins, D.; Stempien, J. A.; Wirth, K. R.
2013-12-01
Prior research has indicated that highly motivated students perform better and that learning increases in innovative, reformed classrooms, but untangling the student effects from the instructor effects is essential to understanding how to best support student learning. Using a hierarchical linear model, we examine these effects separately and jointly. We use data from nearly 2,000 undergraduate students surveyed by the NSF-funded GARNET (Geoscience Affective Research NETwork) project in 65 different introductory geology classes at research universities, public masters-granting universities, liberal arts colleges and community colleges across the US. Student level effects were measured as increases in expectancy and self-regulation using the Motivated Strategies for Learning Questionnaire (MSLQ; Pintrich et al., 1991). Instructor level effects were measured using the Reformed Teaching Observation Protocol, (RTOP; Sawada et al., 2000), with higher RTOP scores indicating a more reformed, student-centered classroom environment. Learning was measured by learning gains on a Geology Concept Inventory (GCI; Libarkin and Anderson, 2005) and normalized final course grade. The hierarchical linear model yielded significant results at several levels. At the student level, increases in expectancy and self-regulation are significantly and positively related to higher grades regardless of instructor; the higher the increase, the higher the grade. At the instructor level, RTOP scores are positively related to normalized average GCI learning gains. The higher the RTOP score, the higher the average class GCI learning gains. Across both levels, average class GCI learning gains are significantly and positively related to student grades; the higher the GCI learning gain, the higher the grade. Further, the RTOP scores are significantly and negatively related to the relationship between expectancy and course grade. The lower the RTOP score, the higher the correlation between change in
Wynton, Sarah K A; Anglim, Jeromy
2017-10-01
While researchers have often sought to understand the learning curve in terms of multiple component processes, few studies have measured and mathematically modeled these processes on a complex task. In particular, there remains a need to reconcile how abrupt changes in strategy use can co-occur with gradual changes in task completion time. Thus, the current study aimed to assess the degree to which strategy change was abrupt or gradual, and whether strategy aggregation could partially explain gradual performance change. It also aimed to show how Bayesian methods could be used to model the effect of practice on strategy use. To achieve these aims, 162 participants completed 15 blocks of practice on a complex computer-based task-the Wynton-Anglim booking (WAB) task. The task allowed for multiple component strategies (i.e., memory retrieval, information reduction, and insight) that could also be aggregated to a global measure of strategy use. Bayesian hierarchical models were used to compare abrupt and gradual functions of component and aggregate strategy use. Task completion time was well-modeled by a power function, and global strategy use explained substantial variance in performance. Change in component strategy use tended to be abrupt, whereas change in global strategy use was gradual and well-modeled by a power function. Thus, differential timing of component strategy shifts leads to gradual changes in overall strategy efficiency, and this provides one reason for why smooth learning curves can co-occur with abrupt changes in strategy use. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).
Use of hierarchical models to analyze European trends in congenital anomaly prevalence
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Cavadino, Alana; Prieto-Merino, David; Addor, Marie-Claude
2016-01-01
BACKGROUND: Surveillance of congenital anomalies is important to identify potential teratogens. Despite known associations between different anomalies, current surveillance methods examine trends within each subgroup separately. We aimed to evaluate whether hierarchical statistical methods that c...
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Moges, Edom [Civil and Environmental Engineering Department, Washington State University, Richland Washington USA; Demissie, Yonas [Civil and Environmental Engineering Department, Washington State University, Richland Washington USA; Li, Hong-Yi [Hydrology Group, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA
2016-04-01
In most water resources applications, a single model structure might be inadequate to capture the dynamic multi-scale interactions among different hydrological processes. Calibrating single models for dynamic catchments, where multiple dominant processes exist, can result in displacement of errors from structure to parameters, which in turn leads to over-correction and biased predictions. An alternative to a single model structure is to develop local expert structures that are effective in representing the dominant components of the hydrologic process and adaptively integrate them based on an indicator variable. In this study, the Hierarchical Mixture of Experts (HME) framework is applied to integrate expert model structures representing the different components of the hydrologic process. Various signature diagnostic analyses are used to assess the presence of multiple dominant processes and the adequacy of a single model, as well as to identify the structures of the expert models. The approaches are applied for two distinct catchments, the Guadalupe River (Texas) and the French Broad River (North Carolina) from the Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX), using different structures of the HBV model. The results show that the HME approach has a better performance over the single model for the Guadalupe catchment, where multiple dominant processes are witnessed through diagnostic measures. Whereas, the diagnostics and aggregated performance measures prove that French Broad has a homogeneous catchment response, making the single model adequate to capture the response.
A GIS-Enabled, Michigan-Specific, Hierarchical Groundwater Modeling and Visualization System
Liu, Q.; Li, S.; Mandle, R.; Simard, A.; Fisher, B.; Brown, E.; Ross, S.
2005-12-01
Efficient management of groundwater resources relies on a comprehensive database that represents the characteristics of the natural groundwater system as well as analysis and modeling tools to describe the impacts of decision alternatives. Many agencies in Michigan have spent several years compiling expensive and comprehensive surface water and groundwater inventories and other related spatial data that describe their respective areas of responsibility. However, most often this wealth of descriptive data has only been utilized for basic mapping purposes. The benefits from analyzing these data, using GIS analysis functions or externally developed analysis models or programs, has yet to be systematically realized. In this talk, we present a comprehensive software environment that allows Michigan groundwater resources managers and frontline professionals to make more effective use of the available data and improve their ability to manage and protect groundwater resources, address potential conflicts, design cleanup schemes, and prioritize investigation activities. In particular, we take advantage of the Interactive Ground Water (IGW) modeling system and convert it to a customized software environment specifically for analyzing, modeling, and visualizing the Michigan statewide groundwater database. The resulting Michigan IGW modeling system (IGW-M) is completely window-based, fully interactive, and seamlessly integrated with a GIS mapping engine. The system operates in real-time (on the fly) providing dynamic, hierarchical mapping, modeling, spatial analysis, and visualization. Specifically, IGW-M allows water resources and environmental professionals in Michigan to: * Access and utilize the extensive data from the statewide groundwater database, interactively manipulate GIS objects, and display and query the associated data and attributes; * Analyze and model the statewide groundwater database, interactively convert GIS objects into numerical model features
Xia, Yongqiu; Weller, Donald E; Williams, Meghan N; Jordan, Thomas E; Yan, Xiaoyuan
2016-11-15
Export coefficient models (ECMs) are often used to predict nutrient sources and sinks in watersheds because ECMs can flexibly incorporate processes and have minimal data requirements. However, ECMs do not quantify uncertainties in model structure, parameters, or predictions; nor do they account for spatial and temporal variability in land characteristics, weather, and management practices. We applied Bayesian hierarchical methods to address these problems in ECMs used to predict nitrate concentration in streams. We compared four model formulations, a basic ECM and three models with additional terms to represent competing hypotheses about the sources of error in ECMs and about spatial and temporal variability of coefficients: an ADditive Error Model (ADEM), a SpatioTemporal Parameter Model (STPM), and a Dynamic Parameter Model (DPM). The DPM incorporates a first-order random walk to represent spatial correlation among parameters and a dynamic linear model to accommodate temporal correlation. We tested the modeling approach in a proof of concept using watershed characteristics and nitrate export measurements from watersheds in the Coastal Plain physiographic province of the Chesapeake Bay drainage. Among the four models, the DPM was the best--it had the lowest mean error, explained the most variability (R(2) = 0.99), had the narrowest prediction intervals, and provided the most effective tradeoff between fit complexity (its deviance information criterion, DIC, was 45.6 units lower than any other model, indicating overwhelming support for the DPM). The superiority of the DPM supports its underlying hypothesis that the main source of error in ECMs is their failure to account for parameter variability rather than structural error. Analysis of the fitted DPM coefficients for cropland export and instream retention revealed some of the factors controlling nitrate concentration: cropland nitrate exports were positively related to stream flow and watershed average slope
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Mishnaevsky, Leon; Dai, Gaoming
2014-01-01
Hybrid and hierarchical polymer composites represent a promising group of materials for engineering applications. In this paper, computational studies of the strength and damage resistance of hybrid and hierarchical composites are reviewed. The reserves of the composite improvement are explored b...... nanoreinforcement can drastically increase the fatigue lifetime of composites. Especially, composites with the nanoplatelets localized in the fiber/matrix interface layer (fiber sizing) ensure much higher fatigue lifetime than those with the nanoplatelets in the matrix....
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Zhengyu Xie
2015-01-01
Full Text Available We consider the sensor networks hierarchical optimization problem in high-speed railway transport hub (HRTH. The sensor networks are optimized from three hierarchies which are key area sensors optimization, passenger line sensors optimization, and whole area sensors optimization. Case study on a specific HRTH in China showed that the hierarchical optimization method is effective to optimize the sensor networks for security monitoring in HRTH.
Sepúlveda, Nuno
2013-02-26
Background: The advent of next generation sequencing technology has accelerated efforts to map and catalogue copy number variation (CNV) in genomes of important micro-organisms for public health. A typical analysis of the sequence data involves mapping reads onto a reference genome, calculating the respective coverage, and detecting regions with too-low or too-high coverage (deletions and amplifications, respectively). Current CNV detection methods rely on statistical assumptions (e.g., a Poisson model) that may not hold in general, or require fine-tuning the underlying algorithms to detect known hits. We propose a new CNV detection methodology based on two Poisson hierarchical models, the Poisson-Gamma and Poisson-Lognormal, with the advantage of being sufficiently flexible to describe different data patterns, whilst robust against deviations from the often assumed Poisson model.Results: Using sequence coverage data of 7 Plasmodium falciparum malaria genomes (3D7 reference strain, HB3, DD2, 7G8, GB4, OX005, and OX006), we showed that empirical coverage distributions are intrinsically asymmetric and overdispersed in relation to the Poisson model. We also demonstrated a low baseline false positive rate for the proposed methodology using 3D7 resequencing data and simulation. When applied to the non-reference isolate data, our approach detected known CNV hits, including an amplification of the PfMDR1 locus in DD2 and a large deletion in the CLAG3.2 gene in GB4, and putative novel CNV regions. When compared to the recently available FREEC and cn.MOPS approaches, our findings were more concordant with putative hits from the highest quality array data for the 7G8 and GB4 isolates.Conclusions: In summary, the proposed methodology brings an increase in flexibility, robustness, accuracy and statistical rigour to CNV detection using sequence coverage data. 2013 Seplveda et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.
Sepúlveda, Nuno; Campino, Susana G; Assefa, Samuel A; Sutherland, Colin J; Pain, Arnab; Clark, Taane G
2013-02-26
The advent of next generation sequencing technology has accelerated efforts to map and catalogue copy number variation (CNV) in genomes of important micro-organisms for public health. A typical analysis of the sequence data involves mapping reads onto a reference genome, calculating the respective coverage, and detecting regions with too-low or too-high coverage (deletions and amplifications, respectively). Current CNV detection methods rely on statistical assumptions (e.g., a Poisson model) that may not hold in general, or require fine-tuning the underlying algorithms to detect known hits. We propose a new CNV detection methodology based on two Poisson hierarchical models, the Poisson-Gamma and Poisson-Lognormal, with the advantage of being sufficiently flexible to describe different data patterns, whilst robust against deviations from the often assumed Poisson model. Using sequence coverage data of 7 Plasmodium falciparum malaria genomes (3D7 reference strain, HB3, DD2, 7G8, GB4, OX005, and OX006), we showed that empirical coverage distributions are intrinsically asymmetric and overdispersed in relation to the Poisson model. We also demonstrated a low baseline false positive rate for the proposed methodology using 3D7 resequencing data and simulation. When applied to the non-reference isolate data, our approach detected known CNV hits, including an amplification of the PfMDR1 locus in DD2 and a large deletion in the CLAG3.2 gene in GB4, and putative novel CNV regions. When compared to the recently available FREEC and cn.MOPS approaches, our findings were more concordant with putative hits from the highest quality array data for the 7G8 and GB4 isolates. In summary, the proposed methodology brings an increase in flexibility, robustness, accuracy and statistical rigour to CNV detection using sequence coverage data.
A hierarchical model of goal directed navigation selects trajectories in a visual environment.
Erdem, Uğur M; Milford, Michael J; Hasselmo, Michael E
2015-01-01
We have developed a Hierarchical Look-Ahead Trajectory Model (HiLAM) that incorporates the firing pattern of medial entorhinal grid cells in a planning circuit that includes interactions with hippocampus and prefrontal cortex. We show the model's flexibility in representing large real world environments using odometry information obtained from challenging video sequences. We acquire the visual data from a camera mounted on a small tele-operated vehicle. The camera has a panoramic field of view with its focal point approximately 5 cm above the ground level, similar to what would be expected from a rat's point of view. Using established algorithms for calculating perceptual speed from the apparent rate of visual change over time, we generate raw dead reckoning information which loses spatial fidelity over time due to error accumulation. We rectify the loss of fidelity by exploiting the loop-closure detection ability of a biologically inspired, robot navigation model termed RatSLAM. The rectified motion information serves as a velocity input to the HiLAM to encode the environment in the form of grid cell and place cell maps. Finally, we show goal directed path planning results of HiLAM in two different environments, an indoor square maze used in rodent experiments and an outdoor arena more than two orders of magnitude larger than the indoor maze. Together these results bridge for the first time the gap between higher fidelity bio-inspired navigation models (HiLAM) and more abstracted but highly functional bio-inspired robotic mapping systems (RatSLAM), and move from simulated environments into real-world studies in rodent-sized arenas and beyond. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Xie, Kun; Wang, Xuesong; Huang, Helai; Chen, Xiaohong
2013-01-01
Most traffic crashes in Chinese cities occur at signalized intersections. Research on the intersection safety problem in China is still in its early stage. The recent development of an advanced traffic information system in Shanghai enables in-depth intersection safety analyses using road design, traffic operation, and crash data. In Shanghai, the road network density is relatively high and the distance between signalized intersections is small, averaging about 200m. Adjacent signalized intersections located along the same corridor share similar traffic flows, and signals are usually coordinated. Therefore, when studying intersection safety in Shanghai, it is essential to account for intersection correlations within corridors. In this study, data for 195 signalized intersections along 22 corridors in the urban areas of Shanghai were collected. Mean speeds and speed variances of corridors were acquired from taxis equipped with Global Positioning Systems (GPS). Bayesian hierarchical models were applied to identify crash risk factors at both the intersection and the corridor levels. Results showed that intersections along corridors with lower mean speeds were associated with fewer crashes than those with higher speeds, and those intersections along two-way roads, under elevated roads, and in close proximity to each other, tended to have higher crash frequencies. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
David Lunn
Full Text Available The advantages of Bayesian statistical approaches, such as flexibility and the ability to acknowledge uncertainty in all parameters, have made them the prevailing method for analysing the spread of infectious diseases in human or animal populations. We introduce a Bayesian approach to experimental host-pathogen systems that shares these attractive features. Since uncertainty in all parameters is acknowledged, existing information can be accounted for through prior distributions, rather than through fixing some parameter values. The non-linear dynamics, multi-factorial design, multiple measurements of responses over time and sampling error that are typical features of experimental host-pathogen systems can also be naturally incorporated. We analyse the dynamics of the free-living protozoan Paramecium caudatum and its specialist bacterial parasite Holospora undulata. Our analysis provides strong evidence for a saturable infection function, and we were able to reproduce the two waves of infection apparent in the data by separating the initial inoculum from the parasites released after the first cycle of infection. In addition, the parameter estimates from the hierarchical model can be combined to infer variations in the parasite's basic reproductive ratio across experimental groups, enabling us to make predictions about the effect of resources and host genotype on the ability of the parasite to spread. Even though the high level of variability between replicates limited the resolution of the results, this Bayesian framework has strong potential to be used more widely in experimental ecology.
Establishment of anin vitroculture model of theca cells from hierarchical follicles in ducks.
Gan, Xiang; Chen, Da; Deng, Yan; Yuan, Jusong; Kang, Bo; Qiu, Jiamin; Sun, Wenqiang; Han, Chunchun; Hu, Jiwei; Li, Liang; Wang, Jiwen
2017-06-30
Theca cells, including theca interna cells and theca externa cells, are vital components of ovarian follicles. The aim of the present study is to identify a reliable method for the in vitro culture of theca cells from duck ovarian hierarchical (F4-F2) follicles. We improved the method for cell separation by using trypsin to further remove granular cells, and we increased the concentration of fetal bovine serum used in in vitro culture to improve cytoactivity. Cell antibody immunofluorescence (IF) showed that all inoculated cells could be stained by the CYP17A1/19A1 antibody but not by the FSHR antibody, which could stain granulosa cells. Furthermore, morphological differences were observed between the outlines of theca interna and externa cells and in their nuclei. Growth curve and CYP17A1/19A1 mRNA relative expression analyses suggested that the growth profile of theca interna cells may have been significantly different from that of theca externa cells in vitro Theca interna cells experienced the logarithmic phase on d1-d2, the plateau phase on d2-d3, and the senescence phase after d3, while theca externa cells experienced the logarithmic phase on d1-d3, the plateau phase on d3-d5, and the senescence phase after d5. Taken together, these results suggested that we have successfully established a reliable theca cell culture model and further defined theca cell characteristics in vitro . © 2017 The Author(s).
Jonsen, Ian D; Myers, Ransom A; James, Michael C
2006-09-01
1. Biological and statistical complexity are features common to most ecological data that hinder our ability to extract meaningful patterns using conventional tools. Recent work on implementing modern statistical methods for analysis of such ecological data has focused primarily on population dynamics but other types of data, such as animal movement pathways obtained from satellite telemetry, can also benefit from the application of modern statistical tools. 2. We develop a robust hierarchical state-space approach for analysis of multiple satellite telemetry pathways obtained via the Argos system. State-space models are time-series methods that allow unobserved states and biological parameters to be estimated from data observed with error. We show that the approach can reveal important patterns in complex, noisy data where conventional methods cannot. 3. Using the largest Atlantic satellite telemetry data set for critically endangered leatherback turtles, we show that the diel pattern in travel rates of these turtles changes over different phases of their migratory cycle. While foraging in northern waters the turtles show similar travel rates during day and night, but on their southward migration to tropical waters travel rates are markedly faster during the day. These patterns are generally consistent with diving data, and may be related to changes in foraging behaviour. Interestingly, individuals that migrate southward to breed generally show higher daytime travel rates than individuals that migrate southward in a non-breeding year. 4. Our approach is extremely flexible and can be applied to many ecological analyses that use complex, sequential data.
Borgoni, Riccardo; De Francesco, Davide; De Bartolo, Daniela; Tzavidis, Nikos
2014-12-01
Radon is a natural gas known to be the main contributor to natural background radiation exposure and only second to smoking as major leading cause of lung cancer. The main concern is in indoor environments where the gas tends to accumulate and can reach high concentrations. The primary contributor of this gas into the building is from the soil although architectonic characteristics, such as building materials, can largely affect concentration values. Understanding the factors affecting the concentration in dwellings and workplaces is important both in prevention, when the construction of a new building is being planned, and in mitigation when the amount of Radon detected inside a building is too high. In this paper we investigate how several factors, such as geologic typologies of the soil and a range of building characteristics, impact on indoor concentration focusing, in particular, on how concentration changes as a function of the floor level. Adopting a mixed effects model to account for the hierarchical nature of the data, we also quantify the extent to which such measurable factors manage to explain the variability of indoor radon concentration. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Multi-scale chromatin state annotation using a hierarchical hidden Markov model.
Marco, Eugenio; Meuleman, Wouter; Huang, Jialiang; Glass, Kimberly; Pinello, Luca; Wang, Jianrong; Kellis, Manolis; Yuan, Guo-Cheng
2017-04-07
Chromatin-state analysis is widely applied in the studies of development and diseases. However, existing methods operate at a single length scale, and therefore cannot distinguish large domains from isolated elements of the same type. To overcome this limitation, we present a hierarchical hidden Markov model, diHMM, to systematically annotate chromatin states at multiple length scales. We apply diHMM to analyse a public ChIP-seq data set. diHMM not only accurately captures nucleosome-level information, but identifies domain-level states that vary in nucleosome-level state composition, spatial distribution and functionality. The domain-level states recapitulate known patterns such as super-enhancers, bivalent promoters and Polycomb repressed regions, and identify additional patterns whose biological functions are not yet characterized. By integrating chromatin-state information with gene expression and Hi-C data, we identify context-dependent functions of nucleosome-level states. Thus, diHMM provides a powerful tool for investigating the role of higher-order chromatin structure in gene regulation.
Aging Face Recognition: A Hierarchical Learning Model Based on Local Patterns Selection.
Li, Zhifeng; Gong, Dihong; Li, Xuelong; Tao, Dacheng
2016-05-01
Aging face recognition refers to matching the same person's faces across different ages, e.g., matching a person's older face to his (or her) younger one, which has many important practical applications, such as finding missing children. The major challenge of this task is that facial appearance is subject to significant change during the aging process. In this paper, we propose to solve the problem with a hierarchical model based on two-level learning. At the first level, effective features are learned from low-level microstructures, based on our new feature descriptor called local pattern selection (LPS). The proposed LPS descriptor greedily selects low-level discriminant patterns in a way, such that intra-user dissimilarity is minimized. At the second level, higher level visual information is further refined based on the output from the first level. To evaluate the performance of our new method, we conduct extensive experiments on the MORPH data set (the largest face aging data set available in the public domain), which show a significant improvement in accuracy over the state-of-the-art methods.
Blot, Kevin J; Zárate, Michael A; Paulus, Paul B
2003-01-01
The revised hierarchical model (RHM) of bilingual language processing posits independent word form representations for the dominant language (L1) and the nondominant language (L2), facilitated translation from L2 words to L1 words, access to common concepts for L1 and L2, and stronger activation of concepts for L1 than for L2. Spanish-English and English-Spanish bilinguals brainstormed for two sessions; half switched languages (L1-L2 or L2-L1) and half stayed in the same language (L1-L1 or L2-L2) across sessions. In both sessions, L1 brainstorming resulted in more efficient idea productivity than L2 brainstorming, supporting stronger concept activation for L1, consistent with the RHM. Switching languages from L2 to L1 resulted in the most efficient idea productivity in Session 2, suggesting that switching to L1 not only permits strong concept activation, but also the activation of concepts that are relatively different than those activated by L2, inconsistent with the RHM. Switching languages increased the proportion of Session 1 ideas repeated during Session 2, despite instructions not to repeat. This finding suggests that there is activation of concepts as well as word forms in same language brainstorming and that this dual activation aids in following instructions not to repeat, consistent with the RHM. It is suggested that the RHM be re-specified to accommodate the notion that L1 and L2 access relatively different concepts.
Hierarchical matrices implemented into the boundary integral approaches for gravity field modelling
Čunderlík, Róbert; Vipiana, Francesca
2017-04-01
Boundary integral approaches applied for gravity field modelling have been recently developed to solve the geodetic boundary value problems numerically, or to process satellite observations, e.g. from the GOCE satellite mission. In order to obtain numerical solutions of "cm-level" accuracy, such approaches require very refined level of the disretization or resolution. This leads to enormous memory requirements that need to be reduced. An implementation of the Hierarchical Matrices (H-matrices) can significantly reduce a numerical complexity of these approaches. A main idea of the H-matrices is based on an approximation of the entire system matrix that is split into a family of submatrices. Large submatrices are stored in factorized representation, while small submatrices are stored in standard representation. This allows reducing memory requirements significantly while improving the efficiency. The poster presents our preliminary results of implementations of the H-matrices into the existing boundary integral approaches based on the boundary element method or the method of fundamental solution.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Tülin Acar
2012-01-01
Full Text Available The aim of this research is to compare the result of the differential item functioning (DIF determining with hierarchical generalized linear model (HGLM technique and the results of the DIF determining with logistic regression (LR and item response theory–likelihood ratio (IRT-LR techniques on the test items. For this reason, first in this research, it is determined whether the students encounter DIF with HGLM, LR, and IRT-LR techniques according to socioeconomic status (SES, in the Turkish, Social Sciences, and Science subtest items of the Secondary School Institutions Examination. When inspecting the correlations among the techniques in terms of determining the items having DIF, it was discovered that there was significant correlation between the results of IRT-LR and LR techniques in all subtests; merely in Science subtest, the results of the correlation between HGLM and IRT-LR techniques were found significant. DIF applications can be made on test items with other DIF analysis techniques that were not taken to the scope of this research. The analysis results, which were determined by using the DIF techniques in different sample sizes, can be compared.
Multi-scale chromatin state annotation using a hierarchical hidden Markov model
Marco, Eugenio; Meuleman, Wouter; Huang, Jialiang; Glass, Kimberly; Pinello, Luca; Wang, Jianrong; Kellis, Manolis; Yuan, Guo-Cheng
2017-04-01
Chromatin-state analysis is widely applied in the studies of development and diseases. However, existing methods operate at a single length scale, and therefore cannot distinguish large domains from isolated elements of the same type. To overcome this limitation, we present a hierarchical hidden Markov model, diHMM, to systematically annotate chromatin states at multiple length scales. We apply diHMM to analyse a public ChIP-seq data set. diHMM not only accurately captures nucleosome-level information, but identifies domain-level states that vary in nucleosome-level state composition, spatial distribution and functionality. The domain-level states recapitulate known patterns such as super-enhancers, bivalent promoters and Polycomb repressed regions, and identify additional patterns whose biological functions are not yet characterized. By integrating chromatin-state information with gene expression and Hi-C data, we identify context-dependent functions of nucleosome-level states. Thus, diHMM provides a powerful tool for investigating the role of higher-order chromatin structure in gene regulation.
Hierarchical ordered model for injury severity of pedestrian crashes in South Korea.
Kim, Myeonghyeon; Kho, Seung-Young; Kim, Dong-Kyu
2017-06-01
The high percentage of fatalities in pedestrian-involved crashes is a critical social problem. The purpose of this study is to investigate factors influencing injury severity in pedestrian crashes by examining the demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of the regions where crashes occurred. To understand the correlation between the unobserved characteristics of pedestrian crashes in a defined region, we apply a hierarchical ordered model, in which we set crash characteristics as lower-level variables and municipality characteristics as upper-level. Pedestrian crash data were collected and analyzed for a three-year period from 2011 to 2013. The estimation results show the statistically significant factors that increase injury severity of pedestrian crashes. At the crash level, the factors associated with increased severity of pedestrian injury include intoxicated drivers, road-crossing pedestrians, elderly pedestrians, heavy vehicles, wide roads, darkness, and fog. At the municipality level, municipalities with low population density, lower level of financial independence, fewer doctors, and a higher percentage of elderly residents experience more severe pedestrian crashes. Municipalities ranked as having the top 10% pedestrian fatality rate (fatalities per 100,000 residents) have rates 7.4 times higher than municipalities with the lowest 10% rate of fatalities. Their demographic and socioeconomic characteristics also have significant differences. The proposed model accounts for a 7% unexplained variation in injury severity outcomes between the municipalities where crashes occurred. To enhance the safety of vulnerable pedestrians, considerable investments of time and effort in pedestrian safety facilities and zones should be made. More certain and severe punishments should be also given for the traffic violations that increase injury severity of pedestrian crashes. Furthermore, central and local governments should play a cooperative role to reduce pedestrian
Bayesian hierarchical models for regional climate reconstructions of the last glacial maximum
Weitzel, Nils; Hense, Andreas; Ohlwein, Christian
2017-04-01
Spatio-temporal reconstructions of past climate are important for the understanding of the long term behavior of the climate system and the sensitivity to forcing changes. Unfortunately, they are subject to large uncertainties, have to deal with a complex proxy-climate structure, and a physically reasonable interpolation between the sparse proxy observations is difficult. Bayesian Hierarchical Models (BHMs) are a class of statistical models that is well suited for spatio-temporal reconstructions of past climate because they permit the inclusion of multiple sources of information (e.g. records from different proxy types, uncertain age information, output from climate simulations) and quantify uncertainties in a statistically rigorous way. BHMs in paleoclimatology typically consist of three stages which are modeled individually and are combined using Bayesian inference techniques. The data stage models the proxy-climate relation (often named transfer function), the process stage models the spatio-temporal distribution of the climate variables of interest, and the prior stage consists of prior distributions of the model parameters. For our BHMs, we translate well-known proxy-climate transfer functions for pollen to a Bayesian framework. In addition, we can include Gaussian distributed local climate information from preprocessed proxy records. The process stage combines physically reasonable spatial structures from prior distributions with proxy records which leads to a multivariate posterior probability distribution for the reconstructed climate variables. The prior distributions that constrain the possible spatial structure of the climate variables are calculated from climate simulation output. We present results from pseudoproxy tests as well as new regional reconstructions of temperatures for the last glacial maximum (LGM, ˜ 21,000 years BP). These reconstructions combine proxy data syntheses with information from climate simulations for the LGM that were
Takahashi, Y. O.; Takehiro, S.; Sugiyama, K.; Odaka, M.; Ishiwatari, M.; Sasaki, Y.; Nishizawa, S.; Ishioka, K.; Nakajima, K.; Hayashi, Y.
2012-12-01
Toward the understanding of fluid motions of planetary atmospheres and planetary interiors by performing multiple numerical experiments with multiple models, we are now proceeding ``dcmodel project'', where a series of hierarchical numerical models with various complexity is developed and maintained. In ``dcmodel project'', a series of the numerical models are developed taking care of the following points: 1) a common ``style'' of program codes assuring readability of the software, 2) open source codes of the models to the public, 3) scalability of the models assuring execution on various scales of computational resources, 4) stressing the importance of documentation and presenting a method for writing reference manuals. The lineup of the models and utility programs of the project is as follows: Gtool5, ISPACK/SPML, SPMODEL, Deepconv, Dcpam, and Rdoc-f95. In the followings, features of each component are briefly described. Gtool5 (Ishiwatari et al., 2012) is a Fortran90 library, which provides data input/output interfaces and various utilities commonly used in the models of dcmodel project. A self-descriptive data format netCDF is adopted as a IO format of Gtool5. The interfaces of gtool5 library can reduce the number of operation steps for the data IO in the program code of the models compared with the interfaces of the raw netCDF library. Further, by use of gtool5 library, procedures for data IO and addition of metadata for post-processing can be easily implemented in the program codes in a consolidated form independent of the size and complexity of the models. ``ISPACK'' is the spectral transformation library and ``SPML (SPMODEL library)'' (Takehiro et al., 2006) is its wrapper library. Most prominent feature of SPML is a series of array-handling functions with systematic function naming rules, and this enables us to write codes with a form which is easily deduced from the mathematical expressions of the governing equations. ``SPMODEL'' (Takehiro et al., 2006
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Nengjun Yi
2011-12-01
Full Text Available Complex diseases and traits are likely influenced by many common and rare genetic variants and environmental factors. Detecting disease susceptibility variants is a challenging task, especially when their frequencies are low and/or their effects are small or moderate. We propose here a comprehensive hierarchical generalized linear model framework for simultaneously analyzing multiple groups of rare and common variants and relevant covariates. The proposed hierarchical generalized linear models introduce a group effect and a genetic score (i.e., a linear combination of main-effect predictors for genetic variants for each group of variants, and jointly they estimate the group effects and the weights of the genetic scores. This framework includes various previous methods as special cases, and it can effectively deal with both risk and protective variants in a group and can simultaneously estimate the cumulative contribution of multiple variants and their relative importance. Our computational strategy is based on extending the standard procedure for fitting generalized linear models in the statistical software R to the proposed hierarchical models, leading to the development of stable and flexible tools. The methods are illustrated with sequence data in gene ANGPTL4 from the Dallas Heart Study. The performance of the proposed procedures is further assessed via simulation studies. The methods are implemented in a freely available R package BhGLM (http://www.ssg.uab.edu/bhglm/.
Yi, Nengjun; Liu, Nianjun; Zhi, Degui; Li, Jun
2011-12-01
Complex diseases and traits are likely influenced by many common and rare genetic variants and environmental factors. Detecting disease susceptibility variants is a challenging task, especially when their frequencies are low and/or their effects are small or moderate. We propose here a comprehensive hierarchical generalized linear model framework for simultaneously analyzing multiple groups of rare and common variants and relevant covariates. The proposed hierarchical generalized linear models introduce a group effect and a genetic score (i.e., a linear combination of main-effect predictors for genetic variants) for each group of variants, and jointly they estimate the group effects and the weights of the genetic scores. This framework includes various previous methods as special cases, and it can effectively deal with both risk and protective variants in a group and can simultaneously estimate the cumulative contribution of multiple variants and their relative importance. Our computational strategy is based on extending the standard procedure for fitting generalized linear models in the statistical software R to the proposed hierarchical models, leading to the development of stable and flexible tools. The methods are illustrated with sequence data in gene ANGPTL4 from the Dallas Heart Study. The performance of the proposed procedures is further assessed via simulation studies. The methods are implemented in a freely available R package BhGLM (http://www.ssg.uab.edu/bhglm/).
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Qing, Hai; Mishnaevsky, Leon
2009-01-01
A 3D hierarchical computational model of deformation and stiffness of wood, which takes into account the structures of wood at several scale levels (cellularity, multilayered nature of cell walls, composite-like structures of the wall layers) is developed. At the mesoscale, the softwood cell is p......-section and the cell dimension (wood density), on the elastic properties of softwood was studied.......A 3D hierarchical computational model of deformation and stiffness of wood, which takes into account the structures of wood at several scale levels (cellularity, multilayered nature of cell walls, composite-like structures of the wall layers) is developed. At the mesoscale, the softwood cell...... is presented as a 3D hexagon-shape-tube with multilayered walls. The layers in the softwood cell are considered as considered as composite reinforced by microfibrils (celluloses). The elastic properties of the layers are determined with Halpin–Tsai equations, and introduced into mesoscale finite element...
METHODS AND MODELS OF HIERARCHIZATION OF THE TOURIST ATTRACTIONS. STUDY CASE: NEAMȚ COUNTY
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
CEHAN Alexandra
2015-06-01
Full Text Available The aim of the present study is to emphasise the utility of hierachization in the field of tourism, utility proved through the creation of a tourist attractiveness index based on both quantitative and qualitative features. This index, besides determining the hierarchical position of each tourist attraction, proves useful for pointing out the most important tourist areas of Neamt County, these results being obtained through data collection and analysis and through the creation of primary indices. The outcome of this study is, therefore, a generally applicable instrument for any tourist hierarchization approaches, whose efficiency is discussed in the end by comparing the values obtained for each territorial unit of the county through the use of this instrument with the values assigned to the same units by the Spatial Planning of National Territory. In this way are highlighted the advantages this method of hierarchization brings to the process of evaluation of tourism potential, as well as its faults.
Di Giuseppe, Edmondo; Lasinio, Giovanna Jona; Pasqui, Massimiliano; Esposito, Stanislao
2015-01-01
We propose a new statistical protocol for the estimation of precipitation using lightning data. We first identify rainy events using a scan statistics, then we estimate Rainfall Lighting Ratio (RLR) to convert lightning number into rain volume given the storm intensity. Then we build a hierarchical Bayesian model aiming at the prediction of 15- and 30-minutes cumulated precipitation at unobserved locations and time using information on lightning in the same area. More specifically, we build a...
Schmidt, Alexandra M.; Rodríguez, Marco A.; Capistrano, Estelina S.
2015-01-01
Ecologists often interpret variation in the spatial distribution of populations in terms of responses to environmental features, but disentangling the effects of individual variables can be difficult if latent effects and spatial and temporal correlations are not accounted for properly. Here, we use hierarchical models based on a Poisson log-normal mixture to understand the spatial variation in relative abundance (counts per standardized unit of effort) of yellow perch, Perca flavescens, the ...
Jeffrey E. Schneiderman; Hong S. He; Frank R. Thompson; William D. Dijak; Jacob S. Fraser
2015-01-01
Tree species distribution and abundance are affected by forces operating across a hierarchy of ecological scales. Process and species distribution models have been developed emphasizing forces at different scales. Understanding model agreement across hierarchical scales provides perspective on prediction uncertainty and ultimately enables policy makers and managers to...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Daniel Ting
2010-04-01
Full Text Available Distributions of the backbone dihedral angles of proteins have been studied for over 40 years. While many statistical analyses have been presented, only a handful of probability densities are publicly available for use in structure validation and structure prediction methods. The available distributions differ in a number of important ways, which determine their usefulness for various purposes. These include: 1 input data size and criteria for structure inclusion (resolution, R-factor, etc.; 2 filtering of suspect conformations and outliers using B-factors or other features; 3 secondary structure of input data (e.g., whether helix and sheet are included; whether beta turns are included; 4 the method used for determining probability densities ranging from simple histograms to modern nonparametric density estimation; and 5 whether they include nearest neighbor effects on the distribution of conformations in different regions of the Ramachandran map. In this work, Ramachandran probability distributions are presented for residues in protein loops from a high-resolution data set with filtering based on calculated electron densities. Distributions for all 20 amino acids (with cis and trans proline treated separately have been determined, as well as 420 left-neighbor and 420 right-neighbor dependent distributions. The neighbor-independent and neighbor-dependent probability densities have been accurately estimated using Bayesian nonparametric statistical analysis based on the Dirichlet process. In particular, we used hierarchical Dirichlet process priors, which allow sharing of information between densities for a particular residue type and different neighbor residue types. The resulting distributions are tested in a loop modeling benchmark with the program Rosetta, and are shown to improve protein loop conformation prediction significantly. The distributions are available at http://dunbrack.fccc.edu/hdp.
Jiménez, José; García, Emilio J; Llaneza, Luis; Palacios, Vicente; González, Luis Mariano; García-Domínguez, Francisco; Múñoz-Igualada, Jaime; López-Bao, José Vicente
2016-08-01
In many cases, the first step in large-carnivore management is to obtain objective, reliable, and cost-effective estimates of population parameters through procedures that are reproducible over time. However, monitoring predators over large areas is difficult, and the data have a high level of uncertainty. We devised a practical multimethod and multistate modeling approach based on Bayesian hierarchical-site-occupancy models that combined multiple survey methods to estimate different population states for use in monitoring large predators at a regional scale. We used wolves (Canis lupus) as our model species and generated reliable estimates of the number of sites with wolf reproduction (presence of pups). We used 2 wolf data sets from Spain (Western Galicia in 2013 and Asturias in 2004) to test the approach. Based on howling surveys, the naïve estimation (i.e., estimate based only on observations) of the number of sites with reproduction was 9 and 25 sites in Western Galicia and Asturias, respectively. Our model showed 33.4 (SD 9.6) and 34.4 (3.9) sites with wolf reproduction, respectively. The number of occupied sites with wolf reproduction was 0.67 (SD 0.19) and 0.76 (0.11), respectively. This approach can be used to design more cost-effective monitoring programs (i.e., to define the sampling effort needed per site). Our approach should inspire well-coordinated surveys across multiple administrative borders and populations and lead to improved decision making for management of large carnivores on a landscape level. The use of this Bayesian framework provides a simple way to visualize the degree of uncertainty around population-parameter estimates and thus provides managers and stakeholders an intuitive approach to interpreting monitoring results. Our approach can be widely applied to large spatial scales in wildlife monitoring where detection probabilities differ between population states and where several methods are being used to estimate different population
Individual patient data meta-analysis of survival data using Poisson regression models
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Crowther Michael J
2012-03-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background An Individual Patient Data (IPD meta-analysis is often considered the gold-standard for synthesising survival data from clinical trials. An IPD meta-analysis can be achieved by either a two-stage or a one-stage approach, depending on whether the trials are analysed separately or simultaneously. A range of one-stage hierarchical Cox models have been previously proposed, but these are known to be computationally intensive and are not currently available in all standard statistical software. We describe an alternative approach using Poisson based Generalised Linear Models (GLMs. Methods We illustrate, through application and simulation, the Poisson approach both classically and in a Bayesian framework, in two-stage and one-stage approaches. We outline the benefits of our one-stage approach through extension to modelling treatment-covariate interactions and non-proportional hazards. Ten trials of hypertension treatment, with all-cause death the outcome of interest, are used to apply and assess the approach. Results We show that the Poisson approach obtains almost identical estimates to the Cox model, is additionally computationally efficient and directly estimates the baseline hazard. Some downward bias is observed in classical estimates of the heterogeneity in the treatment effect, with improved performance from the Bayesian approach. Conclusion Our approach provides a highly flexible and computationally efficient framework, available in all standard statistical software, to the investigation of not only heterogeneity, but the presence of non-proportional hazards and treatment effect modifiers.
Individual patient data meta-analysis of survival data using Poisson regression models.
Crowther, Michael J; Riley, Richard D; Staessen, Jan A; Wang, Jiguang; Gueyffier, Francois; Lambert, Paul C
2012-03-23
An Individual Patient Data (IPD) meta-analysis is often considered the gold-standard for synthesising survival data from clinical trials. An IPD meta-analysis can be achieved by either a two-stage or a one-stage approach, depending on whether the trials are analysed separately or simultaneously. A range of one-stage hierarchical Cox models have been previously proposed, but these are known to be computationally intensive and are not currently available in all standard statistical software. We describe an alternative approach using Poisson based Generalised Linear Models (GLMs). We illustrate, through application and simulation, the Poisson approach both classically and in a Bayesian framework, in two-stage and one-stage approaches. We outline the benefits of our one-stage approach through extension to modelling treatment-covariate interactions and non-proportional hazards. Ten trials of hypertension treatment, with all-cause death the outcome of interest, are used to apply and assess the approach. We show that the Poisson approach obtains almost identical estimates to the Cox model, is additionally computationally efficient and directly estimates the baseline hazard. Some downward bias is observed in classical estimates of the heterogeneity in the treatment effect, with improved performance from the Bayesian approach. Our approach provides a highly flexible and computationally efficient framework, available in all standard statistical software, to the investigation of not only heterogeneity, but the presence of non-proportional hazards and treatment effect modifiers.
Detecting Hierarchical Structure in Networks
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Herlau, Tue; Mørup, Morten; Schmidt, Mikkel Nørgaard
2012-01-01
a generative Bayesian model that is able to infer whether hierarchies are present or not from a hypothesis space encompassing all types of hierarchical tree structures. For efficient inference we propose a collapsed Gibbs sampling procedure that jointly infers a partition and its hierarchical structure......Many real-world networks exhibit hierarchical organization. Previous models of hierarchies within relational data has focused on binary trees; however, for many networks it is unknown whether there is hierarchical structure, and if there is, a binary tree might not account well for it. We propose....... On synthetic and real data we demonstrate that our model can detect hierarchical structure leading to better link-prediction than competing models. Our model can be used to detect if a network exhibits hierarchical structure, thereby leading to a better comprehension and statistical account the network....
Understanding Prairie Fen Hydrology - a Hierarchical Multi-Scale Groundwater Modeling Approach
Sampath, P.; Liao, H.; Abbas, H.; Ma, L.; Li, S.
2012-12-01
Prairie fens provide critical habitat to more than 50 rare species and significantly contribute to the biodiversity of the upper Great Lakes region. The sustainability of these globally unique ecosystems, however, requires that they be fed by a steady supply of pristine, calcareous groundwater. Understanding the hydrology that supports the existence of such fens is essential in preserving these valuable habitats. This research uses process-based multi-scale groundwater modeling for this purpose. Two fen-sites, MacCready Fen and Ives Road Fen, in Southern Michigan were systematically studied. A hierarchy of nested steady-state models was built for each fen-site to capture the system's dynamics at spatial scales ranging from the regional groundwater-shed to the local fens. The models utilize high-resolution Digital Elevation Models (DEM), National Hydrologic Datasets (NHD), a recently-assembled water-well database, and results from a state-wide groundwater mapping project to represent the complex hydro-geological and stress framework. The modeling system simulates both shallow glacial and deep bedrock aquifers as well as the interaction between surface water and groundwater. Aquifer heterogeneities were explicitly simulated with multi-scale transition probability geo-statistics. A two-way hydraulic head feedback mechanism was set up between the nested models, such that the parent models provided boundary conditions to the child models, and in turn the child models provided local information to the parent models. A hierarchical mass budget analysis was performed to estimate the seepage fluxes at the surface water/groundwater interfaces and to assess the relative importance of the processes at multiple scales that contribute water to the fens. The models were calibrated using observed base-flows at stream gauging stations and/or static water levels at wells. Three-dimensional particle tracking was used to predict the sources of water to the fens. We observed from the
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Øjelund, Henrik; Sadegh, Payman
2000-01-01
Local function approximations concern fitting low order models to weighted data in neighbourhoods of the points where the approximations are desired. Despite their generality and convenience of use, local models typically suffer, among others, from difficulties arising in physical interpretation ...... simultaneously with the (local estimates of) function values. The approach is applied to modelling of a linear time variant dynamic system under prior linear time invariant structure where local regression fails as a result of high dimensionality....
Sparse Estimation Using Bayesian Hierarchical Prior Modeling for Real and Complex Linear Models
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Pedersen, Niels Lovmand; Manchón, Carles Navarro; Badiu, Mihai Alin
2015-01-01
In sparse Bayesian learning (SBL), Gaussian scale mixtures (GSMs) have been used to model sparsity-inducing priors that realize a class of concave penalty functions for the regression task in real-valued signal models. Motivated by the relative scarcity of formal tools for SBL in complex-valued m...
Wang, Xiaomei; Chong, Siew Ling
2011-01-01
Social factors involved in language maintenance and language shift (LMLS) have been the focus of LMLS studies. Previous studies provide fundamental support for the theoretical development of this research branch. However, there is no discussion regarding the hierarchical order of these social factors, i.e. the degree of importance of various…
Analysis of Differential Item Functioning (DIF) Using Hierarchical Logistic Regression Models.
Swanson, David B.; Clauser, Brian E.; Case, Susan M.; Nungester, Ronald J.; Featherman, Carol
2002-01-01
Outlines an approach to differential item functioning (DIF) analysis using hierarchical linear regression that makes it possible to combine results of logistic regression analyses across items to identify consistent sources of DIF, to quantify the proportion of explained variation in DIF coefficients, and to compare the predictive accuracy of…
A Hybrid PO - Higher-Order Hierarchical MoM Formulation using Curvilinear Geometry Modeling
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Jørgensen, E.; Meincke, Peter; Breinbjerg, Olav
2003-01-01
A very efficient hybrid PO-MoM method has been presented. In contrast to existing methods, the present solution employs higher-order hierarchical basis functions to discretize the MoM and PO currents. This allows to reduce the number of basis functions in both the PO and MoM regions considerably...
Extensions and applications of the Cox-Aalen survival model.
Scheike, Thomas H; Zhang, Mei-Jie
2003-12-01
Cox's regression model is the standard regression tool for survival analysis in most applications. Often, however, the model only provides a rough summary of the effect of some covariates. Therefore, if the aim is to give a detailed description of covariate effects and to consequently calculate predicted probabilities, more flexible models are needed. In another article, Scheike and Zhang (2002, Scandinavian Journal of Statistics 29, 75-88), we suggested a flexible extension of Cox's regression model, which aimed at extending the Cox model only for those covariates where additional flexibility are needed. One important advantage of the suggested approach is that even though covariates are allowed a nonparametric effect, the hassle and difficulty of finding smoothing parameters are not needed. We show how the extended model also leads to simple formulae for predicted probabilities and their standard errors, for example, in the competing risk framework.
Multivariate Survival Mixed Models for Genetic Analysis of Longevity Traits
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Pimentel Maia, Rafael; Madsen, Per; Labouriau, Rodrigo
2014-01-01
A class of multivariate mixed survival models for continuous and discrete time with a complex covariance structure is introduced in a context of quantitative genetic applications. The methods introduced can be used in many applications in quantitative genetics although the discussion presented....... The discrete time models used are multivariate variants of the discrete relative risk models. These models allow for regular parametric likelihood-based inference by exploring a coincidence of their likelihood functions and the likelihood functions of suitably defined multivariate generalized linear mixed...... models. The models include a dispersion parameter, which is essential for obtaining a decomposition of the variance of the trait of interest as a sum of parcels representing the additive genetic effects, environmental effects and unspecified sources of variability; as required in quantitative genetic...
Multivariate Survival Mixed Models for Genetic Analysis of Longevity Traits
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Pimentel Maia, Rafael; Madsen, Per; Labouriau, Rodrigo
2013-01-01
A class of multivariate mixed survival models for continuous and discrete time with a complex covariance structure is introduced in a context of quantitative genetic applications. The methods introduced can be used in many applications in quantitative genetics although the discussion presented....... The discrete time models used are multivariate variants of the discrete relative risk models. These models allow for regular parametric likelihood-based inference by exploring a coincidence of their likelihood functions and the likelihood functions of suitably defined multivariate generalized linear mixed...... models. The models include a dispersion parameter, which is essential for obtaining a decomposition of the variance of the trait of interest as a sum of parcels representing the additive genetic effects, environmental effects and unspecified sources of variability; as required in quantitative genetic...
Marshall, L. A.; Sharma, A.; Nott, D.
2005-12-01
Rigidity in a modelling framework has been known to result in considerable bias in cases where the system behaviour is closely linked to the catchment antecedent conditions. An alternative to accommodate such variations in the system makeup is to enable the model to be flexible enough to evolve as antecedent conditions change. We present a framework that incorporates such flexibility by expressing the model through the combination of a number of different model structures. Each structure is adopted at a given time with a probability that depends on the current hydrologic state of the catchment. This framework is known as a Hierarchical Mixture of Experts (HME). When applied in a hydrological context, the HME approach has two major functions. It can act as a powerful predictive tool where simulation is extended beyond the calibration period. It also offers a basis for model development and building based on interpretation of the final model architecture in calibration. The probabilistic nature of HME means that it is ideally specified using Bayesian inference. The Bayesian approach also formalises the incorporation of uncertainty in the model specification. The interpretability of the overall HME framework is largely influenced by the individual model structures. One model which can be applied in the HME context is the popular Topmodel. Topmodel is a modelling tool that allows the simulation of distributed catchment response to rainfall. Many different versions of the basic model structure exist as the underlying concepts are challenged by different catchment studies. One modification often made is to the description of the baseflow recession. This study will investigate the predictive capability of Topmodel when the model is specified using both a Bayesian and HME approach. The specification of the distribution of model errors is investigated by definition of several different probability distributions. The HME approach is applied in a framework that compares two
Tsai, F. T.; Elshall, A. S.; Hanor, J. S.
2012-12-01
Subsurface modeling is challenging because of many possible competing propositions for each uncertain model component. How can we judge that we are selecting the correct proposition for an uncertain model component out of numerous competing propositions? How can we bridge the gap between synthetic mental principles such as mathematical expressions on one hand, and empirical observation such as observation data on the other hand when uncertainty exists on both sides? In this study, we introduce hierarchical Bayesian model averaging (HBMA) as a multi-model (multi-proposition) framework to represent our current state of knowledge and decision for hydrogeological structure modeling. The HBMA framework allows for segregating and prioritizing different sources of uncertainty, and for comparative evaluation of competing propositions for each source of uncertainty. We applied the HBMA to a study of hydrostratigraphy and uncertainty propagation of the Southern Hills aquifer system in the Baton Rouge area, Louisiana. We used geophysical data for hydrogeological structure construction through indictor hydrostratigraphy method and used lithologic data from drillers' logs for model structure calibration. However, due to uncertainty in model data, structure and parameters, multiple possible hydrostratigraphic models were produced and calibrated. The study considered four sources of uncertainties. To evaluate mathematical structure uncertainty, the study considered three different variogram models and two geological stationarity assumptions. With respect to geological structure uncertainty, the study considered two geological structures with respect to the Denham Springs-Scotlandville fault. With respect to data uncertainty, the study considered two calibration data sets. These four sources of uncertainty with their corresponding competing modeling propositions resulted in 24 calibrated models. The results showed that by segregating different sources of uncertainty, HBMA analysis
Survival model construction guided by fit and predictive strength.
Chauvel, Cécile; O'Quigley, John
2017-06-01
Survival model construction can be guided by goodness-of-fit techniques as well as measures of predictive strength. Here, we aim to bring together these distinct techniques within the context of a single framework. The goal is how to best characterize and code the effects of the variables, in particular time dependencies, when taken either singly or in combination with other related covariates. Simple graphical techniques can provide an immediate visual indication as to the goodness-of-fit but, in cases of departure from model assumptions, will point in the direction of a more involved and richer alternative model. These techniques appear to be intuitive. This intuition is backed up by formal theorems that underlie the process of building richer models from simpler ones. Measures of predictive strength are used in conjunction with these goodness-of-fit techniques and, again, formal theorems show that these measures can be used to help identify models closest to the unknown non-proportional hazards mechanism that we can suppose generates the observations. Illustrations from studies in breast cancer show how these tools can be of help in guiding the practical problem of efficient model construction for survival data. © 2016, The International Biometric Society.
Hidden Markov model for dependent mark loss and survival estimation
Laake, Jeffrey L.; Johnson, Devin S.; Diefenbach, Duane R.; Ternent, Mark A.
2014-01-01
Mark-recapture estimators assume no loss of marks to provide unbiased estimates of population parameters. We describe a hidden Markov model (HMM) framework that integrates a mark loss model with a Cormack–Jolly–Seber model for survival estimation. Mark loss can be estimated with single-marked animals as long as a sub-sample of animals has a permanent mark. Double-marking provides an estimate of mark loss assuming independence but dependence can be modeled with a permanently marked sub-sample. We use a log-linear approach to include covariates for mark loss and dependence which is more flexible than existing published methods for integrated models. The HMM approach is demonstrated with a dataset of black bears (Ursus americanus) with two ear tags and a subset of which were permanently marked with tattoos. The data were analyzed with and without the tattoo. Dropping the tattoos resulted in estimates of survival that were reduced by 0.005–0.035 due to tag loss dependence that could not be modeled. We also analyzed the data with and without the tattoo using a single tag. By not using.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Chong Wei
2015-01-01
Full Text Available Logistic regression models have been widely used in previous studies to analyze public transport utilization. These studies have shown travel time to be an indispensable variable for such analysis and usually consider it to be a deterministic variable. This formulation does not allow us to capture travelers’ perception error regarding travel time, and recent studies have indicated that this error can have a significant effect on modal choice behavior. In this study, we propose a logistic regression model with a hierarchical random error term. The proposed model adds a new random error term for the travel time variable. This term structure enables us to investigate travelers’ perception error regarding travel time from a given choice behavior dataset. We also propose an extended model that allows constraining the sign of this error in the model. We develop two Gibbs samplers to estimate the basic hierarchical model and the extended model. The performance of the proposed models is examined using a well-known dataset.
Hosseini, M.; Magagi, R.; Goita, K.
2013-12-01
are applied to the soil moisture products before application of disaggregation method. The disaggregation is also done by using an improved version of the model, i.e. Random Cascade Hierarchical and Statistical Arrangement (RCHSA) model (Shrestha et al., 2004). In this model, the spatial correlation parameter is used to improve the reliability of the model. The results show that by comparison with RC model, the RCHSA method could improve the accuracy of disaggregation up to about 0.05 (m3/m3). References Over, T. M., and Gupta, V. K., A space-time theory of mesoscale rainfall using random cascades, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 101, No. D21, p. 26319-26331, 1996. Shrestha, R. K., Tachikawa, Y., and Takara, K., Downscaling spatial rainfall field from global scale to local scale using improved multiplicative random cascade method, Annuals of Disas. Prev. Res. Inst., Kyoto Univ., p. 47, 2004.
Li, Xin; Yu, Jiaguo; Jaroniec, Mietek
2016-05-07
As a green and sustainable technology, semiconductor-based heterogeneous photocatalysis has received much attention in the last few decades because it has potential to solve both energy and environmental problems. To achieve efficient photocatalysts, various hierarchical semiconductors have been designed and fabricated at the micro/nanometer scale in recent years. This review presents a critical appraisal of fabrication methods, growth mechanisms and applications of advanced hierarchical photocatalysts. Especially, the different synthesis strategies such as two-step templating, in situ template-sacrificial dissolution, self-templating method, in situ template-free assembly, chemically induced self-transformation and post-synthesis treatment are highlighted. Finally, some important applications including photocatalytic degradation of pollutants, photocatalytic H2 production and photocatalytic CO2 reduction are reviewed. A thorough assessment of the progress made in photocatalysis may open new opportunities in designing highly effective hierarchical photocatalysts for advanced applications ranging from thermal catalysis, separation and purification processes to solar cells.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Thomas J Rodhouse
Full Text Available Monitoring programs that evaluate restoration and inform adaptive management are important for addressing environmental degradation. These efforts may be well served by spatially explicit hierarchical approaches to modeling because of unavoidable spatial structure inherited from past land use patterns and other factors. We developed bayesian hierarchical models to estimate trends from annual density counts observed in a spatially structured wetland forb (Camassia quamash [camas] population following the cessation of grazing and mowing on the study area, and in a separate reference population of camas. The restoration site was bisected by roads and drainage ditches, resulting in distinct subpopulations ("zones" with different land use histories. We modeled this spatial structure by fitting zone-specific intercepts and slopes. We allowed spatial covariance parameters in the model to vary by zone, as in stratified kriging, accommodating anisotropy and improving computation and biological interpretation. Trend estimates provided evidence of a positive effect of passive restoration, and the strength of evidence was influenced by the amount of spatial structure in the model. Allowing trends to vary among zones and accounting for topographic heterogeneity increased precision of trend estimates. Accounting for spatial autocorrelation shifted parameter coefficients in ways that varied among zones depending on strength of statistical shrinkage, autocorrelation and topographic heterogeneity--a phenomenon not widely described. Spatially explicit estimates of trend from hierarchical models will generally be more useful to land managers than pooled regional estimates and provide more realistic assessments of uncertainty. The ability to grapple with historical contingency is an appealing benefit of this approach.
Ahn, Kuk-Hyun; Palmer, Richard; Steinschneider, Scott
2017-01-01
This study presents a regional, probabilistic framework for seasonal forecasts of extreme low summer flows in the northeastern United States conditioned on antecedent climate and hydrologic conditions. The model is developed to explore three innovations in hierarchical modeling for seasonal forecasting at ungaged sites: (1) predictive climate teleconnections are inferred directly from ocean fields instead of predefined climate indices, (2) a parsimonious modeling structure is introduced to allow climate teleconnections to vary spatially across streamflow gages, and (3) climate teleconnections and antecedent hydrologic conditions are considered jointly for regional forecast development. The proposed model is developed and calibrated in a hierarchical Bayesian framework to pool regional information across sites and enhance regionalization skill. The model is validated in a cross-validation framework along with five simpler nested formulations to test specific hypotheses embedded in the full model structure. Results indicate that each of the three innovations improve out-of-sample summer low-flow forecasts, with the greatest benefits derived from the spatially heterogeneous effect of climate teleconnections. We conclude with a discussion of possible model improvements from a better representation of antecedent hydrologic conditions at ungaged sites.
Machine learning models in breast cancer survival prediction.
Montazeri, Mitra; Montazeri, Mohadeseh; Montazeri, Mahdieh; Beigzadeh, Amin
2016-01-01
Breast cancer is one of the most common cancers with a high mortality rate among women. With the early diagnosis of breast cancer survival will increase from 56% to more than 86%. Therefore, an accurate and reliable system is necessary for the early diagnosis of this cancer. The proposed model is the combination of rules and different machine learning techniques. Machine learning models can help physicians to reduce the number of false decisions. They try to exploit patterns and relationships among a large number of cases and predict the outcome of a disease using historical cases stored in datasets. The objective of this study is to propose a rule-based classification method with machine learning techniques for the prediction of different types of Breast cancer survival. We use a dataset with eight attributes that include the records of 900 patients in which 876 patients (97.3%) and 24 (2.7%) patients were females and males respectively. Naive Bayes (NB), Trees Random Forest (TRF), 1-Nearest Neighbor (1NN), AdaBoost (AD), Support Vector Machine (SVM), RBF Network (RBFN), and Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) machine learning techniques with 10-cross fold technique were used with the proposed model for the prediction of breast cancer survival. The performance of machine learning techniques were evaluated with accuracy, precision, sensitivity, specificity, and area under ROC curve. Out of 900 patients, 803 patients and 97 patients were alive and dead, respectively. In this study, Trees Random Forest (TRF) technique showed better results in comparison to other techniques (NB, 1NN, AD, SVM and RBFN, MLP). The accuracy, sensitivity and the area under ROC curve of TRF are 96%, 96%, 93%, respectively. However, 1NN machine learning technique provided poor performance (accuracy 91%, sensitivity 91% and area under ROC curve 78%). This study demonstrates that Trees Random Forest model (TRF) which is a rule-based classification model was the best model with the highest level of
Prognostic survival model for people diagnosed with invasive cutaneous melanoma.
Baade, Peter D; Royston, Patrick; Youl, Philipa H; Weinstock, Martin A; Geller, Alan; Aitken, Joanne F
2015-01-31
The ability of medical practitioners to communicate risk estimates effectively to patients diagnosed with melanoma relies on accurate information about prognostic factors and their impact on survival. This study reports the development of one of the few melanoma prognostic models, called the Melanoma Severity Index (MSI), based on population-based cancer registry data. Data from the Queensland Cancer Registry for people (20-89 years) diagnosed with a single invasive melanoma between 1995 and 2008 (n = 28,654; 1,700 melanoma deaths). Additional clinical information about metastasis, ulceration and positive lymph nodes was manually extracted from pathology forms. Flexible parametric survival models were combined with multivariable fractional polynomial for selecting variables and transformations of continuous variables. Multiple imputation was used for missing covariate values. The MSI contained the variables thickness (transformed, explained 40.6% of variation in survival), body site (additional 1.9% in variation), metastasis (1.8%), positive nodes (0.7%), ulceration (1.3%), age (1.1%). Royston and Sauerbrei's D statistic (measure of discrimination) was 1.50 (95% CI = 1.44, 1.56) and the corresponding RD2 (measure of explained variation) was 0.47 (0.45, 0.49), demonstrating strong explanatory performance. The Harrell-C statistic was 0.88 (0.88, 0.89). Lacking an external validation dataset, we applied internal-external cross validation to demonstrate the consistency of the prognostic information across geographically-defined subsets of the cohort. The MSI provides good ability to predict survival for melanoma patients. Beyond the immediate clinical use, the MSI may have important public health and research applications for evaluations of public health interventions aimed at reducing deaths from melanoma.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Bernauer, Julian; Bochsler, Daniel
2011-01-01
and electoral demand, measured here as the size of ethnic groups and the saliency of ethnic issues. In line with these expectations, parties only run if they can expect electoral support sufficient to pass the electoral threshold. This finding would have been overlooked by a na??ve model of electoral success......The paper examines determinants of electoral entry and success of ethnic minority parties in central and eastern Europe. The application of a hierarchical selection model shows that the strategic entry of minority parties depends on their expected electoral success due both to observed...
Estimating true instead of apparent survival using spatial Cormack-Jolly-Seber models
Schaub, Michael; Royle, J. Andrew
2014-01-01
Survival is often estimated from capture–recapture data using Cormack–Jolly–Seber (CJS) models, where mortality and emigration cannot be distinguished, and the estimated apparent survival probability is the product of the probabilities of true survival and of study area fidelity. Consequently, apparent survival is lower than true survival unless study area fidelity equals one. Underestimation of true survival from capture–recapture data is a main limitation of the method.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jiajing Wang
2014-01-01
Full Text Available Unsupervised synthetic aperture radar (SAR image segmentation is a fundamental preliminary processing step required for sea area detection in military applications. The purpose of this step is to classify large image areas into different segments to assist with identification of the sea area and the ship target within the image. The recently proposed triplet Markov field (TMF model has been successfully used for segmentation of nonstationary SAR images. This letter presents a hierarchical TMF model in the discrete wavelet domain of unsupervised SAR image segmentation for sea area detection, which we have named the wavelet hierarchical TMF (WHTMF model. The WHTMF model can precisely capture the global and local image characteristics in the two-pass computation of posterior distribution. The multiscale likelihood and the multiscale energy function are constructed to capture the intrascale and intrascale dependencies in a random field (X,U. To model the SAR data related to radar backscattering sources, the Gaussian distribution is utilized. The effectiveness of the proposed model for SAR image segmentation is evaluated using synthesized and real SAR data.
A Hierarchical Extension of the HOG Model Implemented in the Convolution-net for Human Detection
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Arakaki, Yasuto; Shouno, Hayaru; Takahashi, Kazuyuki; Morie, Takashi
2012-01-01
.... The hierarchical HOG (H-HOG) integrates several scales of HOG descriptors in its architecture, and represents the input image as the combinatorial of more complex features rather than that of the orientation gradients. We investigate the H-HOG performance and compare with the conventional HOG. In the result, we obtain the better performance rather than the conventional HOG. Especially the size of representation dimension is much smaller than the conventional HOG without reducing the detecting performance.
Liu, Xiangdong; Jessen, Walter J; Sivaganesan, Siva; Aronow, Bruce J; Medvedovic, Mario
2007-08-03
Transcriptional modules (TM) consist of groups of co-regulated genes and transcription factors (TF) regulating their expression. Two high-throughput (HT) experimental technologies, gene expression microarrays and Chromatin Immuno-Precipitation on Chip (ChIP-chip), are capable of producing data informative about expression regulatory mechanism on a genome scale. The optimal approach to joint modeling of data generated by these two complementary biological assays, with the goal of identifying and characterizing TMs, is an important open problem in computational biomedicine. We developed and validated a novel probabilistic model and related computational procedure for identifying TMs by jointly modeling gene expression and ChIP-chip binding data. We demonstrate an improved functional coherence of the TMs produced by the new method when compared to either analyzing expression or ChIP-chip data separately or to alternative approaches for joint analysis. We also demonstrate the ability of the new algorithm to identify novel regulatory relationships not revealed by ChIP-chip data alone. The new computational procedure can be used in more or less the same way as one would use simple hierarchical clustering without performing any special transformation of data prior to the analysis. The R and C-source code for implementing our algorithm is incorporated within the R package gimmR which is freely available at http://eh3.uc.edu/gimm. Our results indicate that, whenever available, ChIP-chip and expression data should be analyzed within the unified probabilistic modeling framework, which will likely result in improved clusters of co-regulated genes and improved ability to detect meaningful regulatory relationships. Given the good statistical properties and the ease of use, the new computational procedure offers a worthy new tool for reconstructing transcriptional regulatory networks.
Liang, Dong; Song, Yimin; Sun, Tao; Jin, Xueying
2018-03-01
This paper addresses the problem of rigid-flexible coupling dynamic modeling and active control of a novel flexible parallel manipulator (PM) with multiple actuation modes. Firstly, based on the flexible multi-body dynamics theory, the rigid-flexible coupling dynamic model (RFDM) of system is developed by virtue of the augmented Lagrangian multipliers approach. For completeness, the mathematical models of permanent magnet synchronous motor (PMSM) and piezoelectric transducer (PZT) are further established and integrated with the RFDM of mechanical system to formulate the electromechanical coupling dynamic model (ECDM). To achieve the trajectory tracking and vibration suppression, a hierarchical compound control strategy is presented. Within this control strategy, the proportional-differential (PD) feedback controller is employed to realize the trajectory tracking of end-effector, while the strain and strain rate feedback (SSRF) controller is developed to restrain the vibration of the flexible links using PZT. Furthermore, the stability of the control algorithm is demonstrated based on the Lyapunov stability theory. Finally, two simulation case studies are performed to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach. The results indicate that, under the redundant actuation mode, the hierarchical compound control strategy can guarantee the flexible PM achieves singularity-free motion and vibration attenuation within task workspace simultaneously. The systematic methodology proposed in this study can be conveniently extended for the dynamic modeling and efficient controller design of other flexible PMs, especially the emerging ones with multiple actuation modes.
Modelling human myoblasts survival upon xenotransplantation into immunodeficient mouse muscle.
Praud, Christophe; Vauchez, Karine; Zongo, Pascal; Vilquin, Jean-Thomas
2018-03-15
Cell transplantation has been challenged in several clinical indications of genetic or acquired muscular diseases, but therapeutic success were mitigated. To understand and improve the yields of tissue regeneration, we aimed at modelling the fate of CD56-positive human myoblasts after transplantation. Using immunodeficient severe combined immunodeficiency (SCID) mice as recipients, we assessed the survival, integration and satellite cell niche occupancy of human myoblasts by a triple immunohistochemical labelling of laminin, dystrophin and human lamin A/C. The counts were integrated into a classical mathematical decline equation. After injection, human cells were essentially located in the endomysium, then they disappeared progressively from D0 to D28. The final number of integrated human nuclei was grossly determined at D2 after injection, suggesting that no more efficient fusion between donor myoblasts and host fibers occurs after the resolution of the local damages created by needle insertion. Almost 1% of implanted human cells occupied a satellite-like cell niche. Our mathematical model validated by histological counting provided a reliable quantitative estimate of human myoblast survival and/or incorporation into SCID muscle fibers. Informations brought by histological labelling and this mathematical model are complementary. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Analyzing sickness absence with statistical models for survival data
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Christensen, Karl Bang; Andersen, Per Kragh; Smith-Hansen, Lars
2007-01-01
OBJECTIVES: Sickness absence is the outcome in many epidemiologic studies and is often based on summary measures such as the number of sickness absences per year. In this study the use of modern statistical methods was examined by making better use of the available information. Since sickness...... absence data deal with events occurring over time, the use of statistical models for survival data has been reviewed, and the use of frailty models has been proposed for the analysis of such data. METHODS: Three methods for analyzing data on sickness absences were compared using a simulation study...... between the psychosocial work environment and sickness absence were used to illustrate the results. RESULTS: Standard methods were found to underestimate true effect sizes by approximately one-tenth [method i] and one-third [method ii] and to have lower statistical power than frailty models. CONCLUSIONS...
Michael, P E; Jahncke, J; Hyrenbach, K D
2016-01-01
At-sea surveys facilitate the study of the distribution and abundance of marine birds along standardized transects, in relation to changes in the local environmental conditions and large-scale oceanographic forcing. We analyzed the form and the intensity of black-footed albatross (Phoebastria nigripes: BFAL) spatial dispersion off central California, using five years (2004-2008) of vessel-based surveys of seven replicated survey lines. We related BFAL patchiness to local, regional and basin-wide oceanographic variability using two complementary approaches: a hypothesis-based model and an exploratory analysis. The former tested the strength and sign of hypothesized BFAL responses to environmental variability, within a hierarchical atmosphere-ocean context. The latter explored BFAL cross-correlations with atmospheric / oceanographic variables. While albatross dispersion was not significantly explained by the hierarchical model, the exploratory analysis revealed that aggregations were influenced by static (latitude, depth) and dynamic (wind speed, upwelling) environmental variables. Moreover, the largest BFAL patches occurred along the survey lines with the highest densities, and in association with shallow banks. In turn, the highest BFAL densities occurred during periods of negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation index values and low atmospheric pressure. The exploratory analyses suggest that BFAL dispersion is influenced by basin-wide, regional-scale and local environmental variability. Furthermore, the hypothesis-based model highlights that BFAL do not respond to oceanographic variability in a hierarchical fashion. Instead, their distributions shift more strongly in response to large-scale ocean-atmosphere forcing. Thus, interpreting local changes in BFAL abundance and dispersion requires considering diverse environmental forcing operating at multiple scales.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
P E Michael
Full Text Available At-sea surveys facilitate the study of the distribution and abundance of marine birds along standardized transects, in relation to changes in the local environmental conditions and large-scale oceanographic forcing. We analyzed the form and the intensity of black-footed albatross (Phoebastria nigripes: BFAL spatial dispersion off central California, using five years (2004-2008 of vessel-based surveys of seven replicated survey lines. We related BFAL patchiness to local, regional and basin-wide oceanographic variability using two complementary approaches: a hypothesis-based model and an exploratory analysis. The former tested the strength and sign of hypothesized BFAL responses to environmental variability, within a hierarchical atmosphere-ocean context. The latter explored BFAL cross-correlations with atmospheric / oceanographic variables. While albatross dispersion was not significantly explained by the hierarchical model, the exploratory analysis revealed that aggregations were influenced by static (latitude, depth and dynamic (wind speed, upwelling environmental variables. Moreover, the largest BFAL patches occurred along the survey lines with the highest densities, and in association with shallow banks. In turn, the highest BFAL densities occurred during periods of negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation index values and low atmospheric pressure. The exploratory analyses suggest that BFAL dispersion is influenced by basin-wide, regional-scale and local environmental variability. Furthermore, the hypothesis-based model highlights that BFAL do not respond to oceanographic variability in a hierarchical fashion. Instead, their distributions shift more strongly in response to large-scale ocean-atmosphere forcing. Thus, interpreting local changes in BFAL abundance and dispersion requires considering diverse environmental forcing operating at multiple scales.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ohaeri Jude U
2010-07-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background An understanding of depressive symptomatology from the perspective of confirmatory factor analysis (CFA could facilitate valid and interpretable comparisons across cultures. The objectives of the study were: (i using the responses of a sample of Arab college students to the Beck Depression Inventory (BDI-II in CFA, to compare the "goodness of fit" indices of the original dimensional three-and two-factor first-order models, and their modifications, with the corresponding hierarchical models (i.e., higher - order and bifactor models; (ii to assess the psychometric characteristics of the BDI-II, including convergent/discriminant validity with the Hopkins Symptom Checklist (HSCL-25. Method Participants (N = 624 were Kuwaiti national college students, who completed the questionnaires in class. CFA was done by AMOS, version 16. Eleven models were compared using eight "fit" indices. Results In CFA, all the models met most "fit" criteria. While the higher-order model did not provide improved fit over the dimensional first - order factor models, the bifactor model (BFM had the best fit indices (CMNI/DF = 1.73; GFI = 0.96; RMSEA = 0.034. All regression weights of the dimensional models were significantly different from zero (P Conclusion The broadly adequate fit of the various models indicates that they have some merit and implies that the relationship between the domains of depression probably contains hierarchical and dimensional elements. The bifactor model is emerging as the best way to account for the clinical heterogeneity of depression. The psychometric characteristics of the BDI-II lend support to our CFA results.
Lu, Pei; Xu, Zhiyong; Yu, Huapeng; Chang, Yongxin; Fu, Chengyu; Shao, Jianxin
2012-11-01
According to models of object recognition in cortex, the brain uses a hierarchical approach in which simple, low-level features having high position and scale specificity are pooled and combined into more complex, higher-level features having greater location invariance. At higher levels, spatial structure becomes implicitly encoded into the features themselves, which may overlap, while explicit spatial information is coded more coarsely. In this paper, the importance of sparsity and localized patch features in a hierarchical model inspired by visual cortex is investigated. As in the model of Serre, Wolf, and Poggio, we first apply Gabor filters at all positions and scales; feature complexity and position/scale invariance are then built up by alternating template matching and max pooling operations. In order to improve generalization performance, the sparsity is proposed and data dimension is reduced by means of compressive sensing theory and sparse representation algorithm. Similarly, within computational neuroscience, adding the sparsity on the number of feature inputs and feature selection is critical for learning biologically model from the statistics of natural images. Then, a redundancy dictionary of patch-based features that could distinguish object class from other categories is designed and then object recognition is implemented by the process of iterative optimization. The method is test on the UIUC car database. The success of this approach suggests a proof for the object class recognition in visual cortex.
Al-Turkait, Fawziyah A; Ohaeri, Jude U
2010-07-29
An understanding of depressive symptomatology from the perspective of confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) could facilitate valid and interpretable comparisons across cultures. The objectives of the study were: (i) using the responses of a sample of Arab college students to the Beck Depression Inventory (BDI-II) in CFA, to compare the "goodness of fit" indices of the original dimensional three-and two-factor first-order models, and their modifications, with the corresponding hierarchical models (i.e., higher - order and bifactor models); (ii) to assess the psychometric characteristics of the BDI-II, including convergent/discriminant validity with the Hopkins Symptom Checklist (HSCL-25). Participants (N = 624) were Kuwaiti national college students, who completed the questionnaires in class. CFA was done by AMOS, version 16. Eleven models were compared using eight "fit" indices. In CFA, all the models met most "fit" criteria. While the higher-order model did not provide improved fit over the dimensional first - order factor models, the bifactor model (BFM) had the best fit indices (CMNI/DF = 1.73; GFI = 0.96; RMSEA = 0.034). All regression weights of the dimensional models were significantly different from zero (P depression factor, indicating that the general depression score is an adequate representation of severity. The BDI-II had adequate internal consistency and convergent/discriminant validity. The mean BDI score (15.5, SD = 8.5) was significantly higher than those of students from other countries (P depression probably contains hierarchical and dimensional elements. The bifactor model is emerging as the best way to account for the clinical heterogeneity of depression. The psychometric characteristics of the BDI-II lend support to our CFA results.
Falahati Marvast, Fatemeh; Arabalibeik, Hossein; Alipour, Fatemeh; Sheikhtaheri, Abbas; Nouri, Leila; Soozande, Mehdi; Yarmahmoodi, Masood
2016-01-01
Keratoconus is a progressive non-inflammatory disease of the cornea. Rigid gas permeable contact lenses (RGPs) are prescribed when the disease progresses. Contact lens fitting and assessment is very difficult in these patients and is a concern of ophthalmologists and optometrists. In this study, a hierarchical fuzzy system is used to capture the expertise of experienced ophthalmologists during the lens evaluation phase of prescription. The system is fine-tuned using genetic algorithms. Sensitivity, specificity and accuracy of the final system are 88.9%, 94.4% and 92.6% respectively.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Lianhui Li
2014-01-01
Full Text Available Aiming at the problem of fusion algorithm performance evaluation in multiradar information fusion system, firstly the hierarchical attribute model of track relevance performance evaluation model is established based on the structural model and functional model and quantization methods of evaluation indicators are given; secondly a combination weighting method is proposed to determine the weights of evaluation indicators, in which the objective and subjective weights are separately determined by criteria importance through intercriteria correlation (CRITIC and trapezoidal fuzzy scale analytic hierarchy process (AHP, and then experience factor is introduced to obtain the combination weight; at last the improved technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS replacing Euclidean distance with Kullback-Leibler divergence (KLD is used to sort the weighted indicator value of the evaluation object. An example is given to illustrate the correctness and feasibility of the proposed method.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Perrea, Toula; Grunert, Klaus G; Krystallis Krontalis, Athanasios
2014-01-01
of the model can be found among collectivistic consumer values, general environmental attitudes, and attitudes speciﬁc to green food. On the other hand, in non-Western cultures (i.e. China), green food (e.g. organic) is perceived by consumers as safer to consume. With this as point of departure, the present...... paper aims to examine whether attitudes towards green food in a values-attitudes model in China are determined as postulated in past Western research. Design/methodology/approach – A “typical” (i.e. Western research evidence-based) values-attitudes hierarchical model was developed and a questionnaire...... as a positive determinant of both food safety and environmental friendliness in food production. Empirical ﬁndings like these highlight the need for adaptation of well-substantiated models to completely customised research approaches within new globally rising environments. Originality/value – It is still...
Jacobi, Carsten; Rumpe, Bernhard
2014-01-01
XP is a light-weight methodology suited particularly for small-sized teams that develop software which has only vague or rapidly changing requirements. The discipline of systems engineering knows it as approach of incremental system change or also of "muddling through". In this paper, we introduce three well known methods of reorganizing companies, namely, the holistic approach, the incremental approach, and the hierarchical approach. We show similarities between software engineering methods ...
Chen, Cong; Zhang, Guohui; Huang, Helai; Wang, Jiangfeng; Tarefder, Rafiqul A
2016-11-01
Rural non-interstate crashes induce a significant amount of severe injuries and fatalities. Examination of such injury patterns and the associated contributing factors is of practical importance. Taking into account the ordinal nature of injury severity levels and the hierarchical feature of crash data, this study employs a hierarchical ordered logit model to examine the significant factors in predicting driver injury severities in rural non-interstate crashes based on two-year New Mexico crash records. Bayesian inference is utilized in model estimation procedure and 95% Bayesian Credible Interval (BCI) is applied to testing variable significance. An ordinary ordered logit model omitting the between-crash variance effect is evaluated as well for model performance comparison. Results indicate that the model employed in this study outperforms ordinary ordered logit model in model fit and parameter estimation. Variables regarding crash features, environment conditions, and driver and vehicle characteristics are found to have significant influence on the predictions of driver injury severities in rural non-interstate crashes. Factors such as road segments far from intersection, wet road surface condition, collision with animals, heavy vehicle drivers, male drivers and driver seatbelt used tend to induce less severe driver injury outcomes than the factors such as multiple-vehicle crashes, severe vehicle damage in a crash, motorcyclists, females, senior drivers, driver with alcohol or drug impairment, and other major collision types. Research limitations regarding crash data and model assumptions are also discussed. Overall, this research provides reasonable results and insight in developing effective road safety measures for crash injury severity reduction and prevention. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Wang, Chao-Quan; Zou, Jian; Shao, Bin
2017-06-01
We propose a quantum collision model in which the environment is abstractively divided into two hierarchies including "environment-bus" that has direct interactions with the system and "environment-stations" that has not. Based on the model, we investigate the effects of initial system-environment correlations, initial states of environment, and various interactions on the dynamics of open quantum systems associated genuinely with such a hierarchical environment. We illustrate that the initial quantum correlation between the system and environment leads to a transition from Markovian to non-Markovian dynamics, while for initial classical correlation the transition can only be confirmed to happen when the couplings rather than the correlations in environment are present. In addition, we investigate the degree of non-Markovianity varying with environment initial states and reveal that the interaction strength between two environmental hierarchies plays an important role in it. In particular, we show that in such a hierarchically structured environment the degree of non-Markovianity is not equivalent to memory effects of the environment-stations as a reservoir due to the presence of the environment-bus.
Gajewski, Byron J; Hart, Sara; Bergquist-Beringer, Sandra; Dunton, Nancy
2007-11-10
This article describes a method for estimating the inter-rater reliability of pressure ulcer (PU) staging (stages I-IV) from raters in National Database of Nursing Quality Indicators (NDNQI) participating hospitals. The method models ordinal spanning data utilizing an ordinal probit Bayesian hierarchical model (BHM) across several hospitals in which raters monitor patient's PUs. An ulcer that cannot be accurately assessed because the base of the wound cannot be seen is defined as unstageable. Our novel approach allows for an unstageable PU rating to be included in the analysis. We compare the ordinal probit BHM to an approximate random-effects (standard approach in the literature) model that assumes that the raw ordinal data are continuous. Copyright 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Yeh, P.H.; Gazdzinski, S.; Durazzo, T.C.
2007-01-01
)-derived brain volume changes and cognitive changes in abstinent alcohol-dependent individuals as a function of smoking status, smoking severity, and drinking quantities. Methods: Twenty non-smoking recovering alcoholics (nsALC) and 30 age-matched smoking recovering alcoholics (sALC) underwent quantitative MRI...... and cognitive assessments at 1 week, 1 month, and 7 months of sobriety. Eight non-smoking light drinking controls were studied at baseline and 7 months later. Brain and ventricle volumes at each time point were quantified using MRI masks, while the boundary shift integral method measured volume changes between...... time points. Using HLM, we modeled volumetric and cognitive outcome measures as a function of cigarette and alcohol use variables. Results: Different hierarchical linear models with unique model structures are presented and discussed. The results show that smaller brain volumes at baseline predict...
Malesevic, Nebojsa; Markovic, Dimitrije; Kanitz, Gunter; Controzzi, Marco; Cipriani, Christian; Antfolk, Christian
2017-07-01
In this paper we present a novel method for predicting individual fingers movements from surface electromyography (EMG). The method is intended for real-time dexterous control of a multifunctional prosthetic hand device. The EMG data was recorded using 16 single-ended channels positioned on the forearm of healthy participants. Synchronously with the EMG recording, the subjects performed consecutive finger movements based on the visual cues. Our algorithm could be described in following steps: extracting mean average value (MAV) of the EMG to be used as the feature for classification, piece-wise linear modeling of EMG feature dynamics, implementation of hierarchical hidden Markov models (HHMM) to capture transitions between linear models, and implementation of Bayesian inference as the classifier. The performance of our classifier was evaluated against commonly used real-time classifiers. The results show that the current algorithm setup classifies EMG data similarly to the best among tested classifiers but with equal or less computational complexity.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Z. Zhang
2013-05-01
Full Text Available Feature fusion of remote sensing images and LiDAR points cloud data, which have strong complementarity, can effectively play the advantages of multi-class features to provide more reliable information support for the remote sensing applications, such as object classification and recognition. In this paper, we introduce a novel multi-source hierarchical conditional random field (MSHCRF model to fuse features extracted from remote sensing images and LiDAR data for image classification. Firstly, typical features are selected to obtain the interest regions from multi-source data, then MSHCRF model is constructed to exploit up the features, category compatibility of images and the category consistency of multi-source data based on the regions, and the outputs of the model represents the optimal results of the image classification. Competitive results demonstrate the precision and robustness of the proposed method.
Aguirre-Salado, Alejandro Ivan; Vaquera-Huerta, Humberto; Aguirre-Salado, Carlos Arturo; Reyes-Mora, Silvia; Olvera-Cervantes, Ana Delia; Lancho-Romero, Guillermo Arturo; Soubervielle-Montalvo, Carlos
2017-07-06
We implemented a spatial model for analysing PM 10 maxima across the Mexico City metropolitan area during the period 1995-2016. We assumed that these maxima follow a non-identical generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution and modeled the trend by introducing multivariate smoothing spline functions into the probability GEV distribution. A flexible, three-stage hierarchical Bayesian approach was developed to analyse the distribution of the PM 10 maxima in space and time. We evaluated the statistical model's performance by using a simulation study. The results showed strong evidence of a positive correlation between the PM 10 maxima and the longitude and latitude. The relationship between time and the PM 10 maxima was negative, indicating a decreasing trend over time. Finally, a high risk of PM 10 maxima presenting levels above 1000 μ g/m 3 (return period: 25 yr) was observed in the northwestern region of the study area.
Teodoro, R.; Bezerra, C. G.; Mariz, A. M.; da Costa, F. A.; de Araújo, J. M.
2014-03-01
A three-color Ashkin-Teller model (3AT) is investigated by means of a Migdal-Kadanoff renormalization group approach on a Wheatstone bridge hierarchical lattice. The exact recursion relations for the renormalized couplings are obtained through a decimation procedure. The phase diagram of the model is obtained from the analysis of the fixed points and the flow generated by the renormalization group transformation. Four distinct phases are obtained along with nine critical points and are graphically represented in a phase diagram in terms of the dual transmissivity vector. The correlation length (νT)and crossover (ϕ) critical exponents are numerically calculated. It is found that seven of the critical points are in the Potts model universality class (q = 2, 4 e 8). The remaining critical points are in a universality class which may belong to a sort of Baxter's line. The results can be considered as an approximation to more realistic Bravais lattices.
Franke, R.
2016-11-01
In many networks discovered in biology, medicine, neuroscience and other disciplines special properties like a certain degree distribution and hierarchical cluster structure (also called communities) can be observed as general organizing principles. Detecting the cluster structure of an unknown network promises to identify functional subdivisions, hierarchy and interactions on a mesoscale. It is not trivial choosing an appropriate detection algorithm because there are multiple network, cluster and algorithmic properties to be considered. Edges can be weighted and/or directed, clusters overlap or build a hierarchy in several ways. Algorithms differ not only in runtime, memory requirements but also in allowed network and cluster properties. They are based on a specific definition of what a cluster is, too. On the one hand, a comprehensive network creation model is needed to build a large variety of benchmark networks with different reasonable structures to compare algorithms. On the other hand, if a cluster structure is already known, it is desirable to separate effects of this structure from other network properties. This can be done with null model networks that mimic an observed cluster structure to improve statistics on other network features. A third important application is the general study of properties in networks with different cluster structures, possibly evolving over time. Currently there are good benchmark and creation models available. But what is left is a precise sandbox model to build hierarchical, overlapping and directed clusters for undirected or directed, binary or weighted complex random networks on basis of a sophisticated blueprint. This gap shall be closed by the model CHIMERA (Cluster Hierarchy Interconnection Model for Evaluation, Research and Analysis) which will be introduced and described here for the first time.
A multiscale, hierarchical model of pulse dynamics in arid-land ecosystems
Collins, Scott L.; Belnap, Jayne; Grimm, N. B.; Rudgers, J. A.; Dahm, Clifford N.; D'Odorico, P.; Litvak, M.; Natvig, D. O.; Peters, Douglas C.; Pockman, W. T.; Sinsabaugh, R. L.; Wolf, B. O.
2014-01-01
Ecological processes in arid lands are often described by the pulse-reserve paradigm, in which rain events drive biological activity until moisture is depleted, leaving a reserve. This paradigm is frequently applied to processes stimulated by one or a few precipitation events within a growing season. Here we expand the original framework in time and space and include other pulses that interact with rainfall. This new hierarchical pulse-dynamics framework integrates space and time through pulse-driven exchanges, interactions, transitions, and transfers that occur across individual to multiple pulses extending from micro to watershed scales. Climate change will likely alter the size, frequency, and intensity of precipitation pulses in the future, and arid-land ecosystems are known to be highly sensitive to climate variability. Thus, a more comprehensive understanding of arid-land pulse dynamics is needed to determine how these ecosystems will respond to, and be shaped by, increased climate variability.
A hierarchical model of factors influencing a battery of agility tests.
Naylor, J; Greig, M
2015-11-01
The aim of this study was to investigate the hierarchical contributions of anthropometry, strength and cognition to a battery of prescriptive and reactive agility tests. Nineteen participants (mean±S.D.; age:22.1±1.9 years; height: 182.9±5.5 cm; body mass: 77±4.9 kg) completed four agility tests: a prescriptive linear sprint, a prescriptive change-of-direction sprint, a reactive change-of-direction sprint, and a reactive linear deceleration test. Anthropometric variables included body fat percentage and thigh girth. Strength was quantified as the peak eccentric hamstring torque at 180, 300, and 60°·s-1. Mean reaction time and accuracy in the Stroop word-colour Test was used to assess perceptual and decision making factors. There was little evidence of intertest correlation with the strongest relationship observed between 10 m sprint and t-test performance (r2=0.49, Pagility, accounting for a maximum 23% (P=0.12) in the prescriptive change-of-direction test. Cognitive measures had a stronger correlation with the reactive (rather than prescriptive) agility tests, with a maximum 33% (P=0.04) of variance accounted for in the reactive change-of-direction test. Eccentric hamstring strength accounted for 62% (P=0.01) of the variance in the prescriptive change-of-direction test. Hierarchical ordering of the agility tests revealed that eccentric hamstring strength was the primary predictor in 3 of the 4 tests, with cognitive accuracy the next most common predictor. There is little evidence of inter-test correlation across a battery of agility tests. Eccentric hamstring strength and decision making accuracy are the most common predictors of agility performance.
Bartomeus, Ignasi
2013-01-01
The analysis of mutualistic networks has become a central tool in answering theoretical and applied questions regarding our understanding of ecological processes. Significant gaps in knowledge do however need to be bridged in order to effectively and accurately be able to describe networks. Main concern are the incorporation of species level information, accounting for sampling limitations and understanding linkage rules. Here I propose a simple method to combine plant pollinator effort-limited sampling with information about plant community to gain understanding of what drives linkage rules, while accounting for possible undetected linkages. I use hierarchical models to estimate the probability of detection of each plant-pollinator interaction in 12 Mediterranean plant-pollinator networks. As it is possible to incorporate plant traits as co-variables in the models, this method has the potential to be used for predictive purposes, such as identifying undetected links among existing species, as well as potential interactions with new plant species. Results show that pollinator detectability is very skewed and usually low. Nevertheless, 84% of the models are enhanced by the inclusion of co-variables, with flower abundance and inflorescence type being the most commonly retained co-variables. The predicted networks increase network Connectance by 13%, but not Nestedness, which is known to be robust to sampling effects. However, 46% of the pollinator interactions in the studied networks comprised a single observation and hence could not be modeled. The hierarchical modeling approach suggested here is highly flexible and can be used on binary or frequency networks, accommodate different observers or include collection day weather variables as confounding factors. An R script is provided for a rapid adoption of this method.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
F. Alizadeh
2015-01-01
Full Text Available Introduction: The purpose of this study was to compare MORT and Tripod Beta methods, using a hierarchical model, in order to choose the best technique to analyze an event in an organization. .Material and Method: In this study, a critical event was selected and the causes of the event were identified, employing MORT and Tripod Beta capabilities. Following the identification of the event causes, the aforementioned techniques were weighted and compared considering selected criteria and AHP hierarchical method. .Result: Relative weights of the selected criteria were calculated. The ability to identify the event causes with the weight of 0.315 had the greatest weight. The event analysis cost (0.24, required time to analyze the event (0.146, technical experts (0.125, training for implementation (0.24, and availability of the analytical software (0.07 had obtained the subsequent weights, respectively. .Conclusion: Analytic hierarchy process is an efficient and practical method to prioritize the choices considering the study objectives and criteria. As scientific method, Analytic hierarchy process helps the experts in decision-making. Considering the selected criteria, findings in this study showed that Tripod Beta technique (with a weight of 0.563 is superior to MORT technique (with a weight of 0.437.
A Log Logistic Survival Model Applied to Hypobaric Decompression Sickness
Conkin, Johnny
2001-01-01
Decompression sickness (DCS) is a complex, multivariable problem. A mathematical description or model of the likelihood of DCS requires a large amount of quality research data, ideas on how to define a decompression dose using physical and physiological variables, and an appropriate analytical approach. It also requires a high-performance computer with specialized software. I have used published DCS data to develop my decompression doses, which are variants of equilibrium expressions for evolved gas plus other explanatory variables. My analytical approach is survival analysis, where the time of DCS occurrence is modeled. My conclusions can be applied to simple hypobaric decompressions - ascents lasting from 5 to 30 minutes - and, after minutes to hours, to denitrogenation (prebreathing). They are also applicable to long or short exposures, and can be used whether the sufferer of DCS is at rest or exercising at altitude. Ultimately I would like my models to be applied to astronauts to reduce the risk of DCS during spacewalks, as well as to future spaceflight crews on the Moon and Mars.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Alejandro Ivan Aguirre-Salado
2017-07-01
Full Text Available We implemented a spatial model for analysing PM 10 maxima across the Mexico City metropolitan area during the period 1995–2016. We assumed that these maxima follow a non-identical generalized extreme value (GEV distribution and modeled the trend by introducing multivariate smoothing spline functions into the probability GEV distribution. A flexible, three-stage hierarchical Bayesian approach was developed to analyse the distribution of the PM 10 maxima in space and time. We evaluated the statistical model’s performance by using a simulation study. The results showed strong evidence of a positive correlation between the PM 10 maxima and the longitude and latitude. The relationship between time and the PM 10 maxima was negative, indicating a decreasing trend over time. Finally, a high risk of PM 10 maxima presenting levels above 1000 μ g/m 3 (return period: 25 yr was observed in the northwestern region of the study area.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
André Twele
2010-09-01
Full Text Available In this contribution, a hybrid multi-contextual Markov model for unsupervised near real-time flood detection in multi-temporal X-band synthetic aperture radar (SAR data is presented. It incorporates scale-dependent, as well as spatio-temporal contextual information, into the classification scheme, by combining hierarchical marginal posterior mode (HMPM estimation on directed graphs with noncausal Markov image modeling related to planar Markov random fields (MRFs. In order to increase computational performance, marginal posterior-based entropies are used for restricting the iterative bi-directional exchange of spatio-temporal information between consecutive images of a time sequence to objects exhibiting a low probability, to be classified correctly according to the HMPM estimation. The Markov models, originally developed for inference on regular graph structures of quadtrees and planar lattices, are adapted to the variable nature of irregular graphs, which are related to information driven image segmentation. Entropy based confidence maps, combined with spatio-temporal relationships of potentially inundated bright scattering vegetation to open water areas, are used for the quantification of the uncertainty in the labeling of each image element in flood possibility masks. With respect to accuracy and computational effort, experiments performed on a bi-temporal TerraSAR-X ScanSAR data-set from the Caprivi region of Namibia during flooding in 2009 and 2010 confirm the effectiveness of integrating hierarchical as well as spatio-temporal context into the labeling process, and of adapting the models to irregular graph structures.
Re-evaluating neonatal-age models for ungulates: does model choice affect survival estimates?
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Troy W Grovenburg
Full Text Available New-hoof growth is regarded as the most reliable metric for predicting age of newborn ungulates, but variation in estimated age among hoof-growth equations that have been developed may affect estimates of survival in staggered-entry models. We used known-age newborns to evaluate variation in age estimates among existing hoof-growth equations and to determine the consequences of that variation on survival estimates. During 2001-2009, we captured and radiocollared 174 newborn (≤24-hrs old ungulates: 76 white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus in Minnesota and South Dakota, 61 mule deer (O. hemionus in California, and 37 pronghorn (Antilocapra americana in South Dakota. Estimated age of known-age newborns differed among hoof-growth models and varied by >15 days for white-tailed deer, >20 days for mule deer, and >10 days for pronghorn. Accuracy (i.e., the proportion of neonates assigned to the correct age in aging newborns using published equations ranged from 0.0% to 39.4% in white-tailed deer, 0.0% to 3.3% in mule deer, and was 0.0% for pronghorns. Results of survival modeling indicated that variability in estimates of age-at-capture affected short-term estimates of survival (i.e., 30 days for white-tailed deer and mule deer, and survival estimates over a longer time frame (i.e., 120 days for mule deer. Conversely, survival estimates for pronghorn were not affected by estimates of age. Our analyses indicate that modeling survival in daily intervals is too fine a temporal scale when age-at-capture is unknown given the potential inaccuracies among equations used to estimate age of neonates. Instead, weekly survival intervals are more appropriate because most models accurately predicted ages within 1 week of the known age. Variation among results of neonatal-age models on short- and long-term estimates of survival for known-age young emphasizes the importance of selecting an appropriate hoof-growth equation and appropriately defining intervals (i
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Eva Froehlich
2016-11-01
Full Text Available Reading is one of the most popular leisure activities and it is routinely performed by most individuals even in old age. Successful reading enables older people to master and actively participate in everyday life and maintain functional independence. Yet, reading comprises a multitude of subprocesses and it is undoubtedly one of the most complex accomplishments of the human brain. Not surprisingly, findings of age-related effects on word recognition and reading have been partly contradictory and are often confined to only one of four central reading subprocesses, i.e., sublexical, orthographic, phonological and lexico-semantic processing. The aim of the present study was therefore to systematically investigate the impact of age on each of these subprocesses. A total of 1,807 participants (young, N = 384; old, N = 1,423 performed four decision tasks specifically designed to tap one of the subprocesses. To account for the behavioral heterogeneity in older adults, this subsample was split into high and low performing readers. Data were analyzed using a hierarchical diffusion modelling approach which provides more information than standard response times/accuracy analyses. Taking into account incorrect and correct response times, their distributions and accuracy data, hierarchical diffusion modelling allowed us to differentiate between age-related changes in decision threshold, non-decision time and the speed of information uptake. We observed longer non-decision times for older adults and a more conservative decision threshold. More importantly, high-performing older readers outperformed younger adults at the speed of information uptake in orthographic and lexico-semantic processing whereas a general age-disadvantage was observed at the sublexical and phonological levels. Low-performing older readers were slowest in information uptake in all four subprocesses. Discussing these results in terms of computational models of word recognition, we propose
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Palander, T. [Joensuu Univ. (Finland). Faculty of Forestry
1999-07-01
A methodology is presented which solves local management problems by combining a timber procurement model with decision analysis and heuristic optimization. A hierarchical participatory method resolves the difficulties of the timber-flow model based on dynamics and system balance theories applying to the tactical management process of policy selection. The methodology was developed for team group decision-making on the assumptions of bounded rationality, imperfect mill service information and lagged inventory adjustment. The experiments analyze the logistics of timber-flow changes. Although the most important objective of the tactical policy of an organization has been to satisfy the timber demand of the mills at minimum cost, the work group in this study was also able to decide utilizing the criteria of the mill service: (1) local managers responsible for transportation preferred a larger roadside inventory stock; and (2) a manager responsible for supervision of logistics preferred a higher level of aggregate inventory turnaround. In the first participatory stage of the method, the criteria for aspiration levels, which determined the group managers' goal as a combined aspiration point, were described. In the second stage, to avoid problems, participatory inventory models and a decision boundary were used in the management process. In this tradeoff analysis, heuristics provided equal hierarchical consideration and commensurate goals. Since the experiments showed that consideration of local managers' needs in predicting feasible buffer stocks may reduce possible conflicts in decision-making, the applied theories and the methodology of this study were useful in establishing balanced policies for tactical management situations.
Keegan, John P.; Chan, Fong; Ditchman, Nicole; Chiu, Chung-Yi
2012-01-01
The main objective of this study was to validate Pender's Health Promotion Model (HPM) as a motivational model for exercise/physical activity self-management for people with spinal cord injuries (SCIs). Quantitative descriptive research design using hierarchical regression analysis (HRA) was used. A total of 126 individuals with SCI were recruited…
Hierarchical modeling of professional skills in the field of castings manufacture engineering
Samuilă, V.; Soporan, V. F.; Conțiu, G.; Pădurețu, S.; Lehene, T. R.; Vescan, M. M.
2017-06-01
The paper presents a method of hierarchizing professional skills in the manufacturing of molded parts (castings) by using and adapting the FAHP algorithm (Fuzzy Analitical Hierarchy Process). Assessments are made regarding the peculiarities of the professional training process, specifying the activities to be carried out and the competences necessary for their development. The contribution of the design of the method extends to the design of the hierarchy system architecture, the linguistic determination of the importance of each characteristic, the construction of the fuzzy ordering matrices for each stage of the process, the determination of the share of the characteristics for each hierarchy step and establishing the hierarchy of the characteristics taking into account the influences of the others, grouped at the level of the steps and within the global matrix. The research carried out represents the support for generating an instrument of hierarchy of professional competencies that can be used in various professional and institutional contexts. Case study on the hierarchy of professional skills in the manufacturing of molded parts engineering. Keywords: Materials engineering, castings manufacture professional skills, hierarchy, AHP method, standard occupational curriculum.
Mapping brucellosis increases relative to elk density using hierarchical Bayesian models
Cross, Paul C.; Heisey, Dennis M.; Scurlock, Brandon M.; Edwards, William H.; Brennan, Angela; Ebinger, Michael R.
2010-01-01
The relationship between host density and parasite transmission is central to the effectiveness of many disease management strategies. Few studies, however, have empirically estimated this relationship particularly in large mammals. We applied hierarchical Bayesian methods to a 19-year dataset of over 6400 brucellosis tests of adult female elk (Cervus elaphus) in northwestern Wyoming. Management captures that occurred from January to March were over two times more likely to be seropositive than hunted elk that were killed in September to December, while accounting for site and year effects. Areas with supplemental feeding grounds for elk had higher seroprevalence in 1991 than other regions, but by 2009 many areas distant from the feeding grounds were of comparable seroprevalence. The increases in brucellosis seroprevalence were correlated with elk densities at the elk management unit, or hunt area, scale (mean 2070 km2; range = [95–10237]). The data, however, could not differentiate among linear and non-linear effects of host density. Therefore, control efforts that focus on reducing elk densities at a broad spatial scale were only weakly supported. Additional research on how a few, large groups within a region may be driving disease dynamics is needed for more targeted and effective management interventions. Brucellosis appears to be expanding its range into new regions and elk populations, which is likely to further complicate the United States brucellosis eradication program. This study is an example of how the dynamics of host populations can affect their ability to serve as disease reservoirs.
Mapping brucellosis increases relative to elk density using hierarchical Bayesian models.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Paul C Cross
Full Text Available The relationship between host density and parasite transmission is central to the effectiveness of many disease management strategies. Few studies, however, have empirically estimated this relationship particularly in large mammals. We applied hierarchical Bayesian methods to a 19-year dataset of over 6400 brucellosis tests of adult female elk (Cervus elaphus in northwestern Wyoming. Management captures that occurred from January to March were over two times more likely to be seropositive than hunted elk that were killed in September to December, while accounting for site and year effects. Areas with supplemental feeding grounds for elk had higher seroprevalence in 1991 than other regions, but by 2009 many areas distant from the feeding grounds were of comparable seroprevalence. The increases in brucellosis seroprevalence were correlated with elk densities at the elk management unit, or hunt area, scale (mean 2070 km(2; range = [95-10237]. The data, however, could not differentiate among linear and non-linear effects of host density. Therefore, control efforts that focus on reducing elk densities at a broad spatial scale were only weakly supported. Additional research on how a few, large groups within a region may be driving disease dynamics is needed for more targeted and effective management interventions. Brucellosis appears to be expanding its range into new regions and elk populations, which is likely to further complicate the United States brucellosis eradication program. This study is an example of how the dynamics of host populations can affect their ability to serve as disease reservoirs.
Guardiola, Jordi; Baliellas, Carme; Xiol, Xavier; Fernandez Esparrach, Glòria; Ginès, Pere; Ventura, Pere; Vazquez, Santiago
2002-09-01
Cirrhotic patients with refractory ascites (RA) have a poor prognosis, although individual survival varies greatly. A model that could predict survival for patients with RA would be helpful in planning treatment. Moreover, in cases of potential liver transplantation, a model of these characteristics would provide the bases for establishing priorities of organ allocation and the selection of patients for a living donor graft. Recently, we developed a model to predict survival of patients with RA. The aim of this study was to establish its generalizability for predicting the survival of patients with RA. The model was validated by assessing its performance in an external cohort of patients with RA included in a multicenter, randomized, controlled trial that compared large-volume paracentesis and peritoneovenous shunt. The values for actual and model-predicted survival of three risk groups of patients, established according to the model, were compared graphically and by means of the one-sample log-rank test. The model provided a very good fit to the survival data of the three risk groups in the validation cohort. We also found good agreement between the survival predicted from the model and the observed survival when patients treated with peritoneovenous shunt and with paracentesis were considered separately. Our survival model can be used to predict the survival of patients with RA and may be a useful tool in clinical decision making, especially in deciding priority for liver transplantation.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Marinela eCapanu
2015-05-01
Full Text Available Identifying the small number of rare causal variants contributing to disease has beena major focus of investigation in recent years, but represents a formidable statisticalchallenge due to the rare frequencies with which these variants are observed. In thiscommentary we draw attention to a formal statistical framework, namely hierarchicalmodeling, to combine functional genomic annotations with sequencing data with theobjective of enhancing our ability to identify rare causal variants. Using simulations weshow that in all configurations studied, the hierarchical modeling approach has superiordiscriminatory ability compared to a recently proposed aggregate measure of deleteriousness,the Combined Annotation-Dependent Depletion (CADD score, supportingour premise that aggregate functional genomic measures can more accurately identifycausal variants when used in conjunction with sequencing data through a hierarchicalmodeling approach
Critical phenomena with renormalization group analysis of a hierarchical model of financial crashes
Wu, Tiankuang Tim
2012-01-01
Financial market models are able to help the investors foresee the risk of a financial market crash and reduce the probability of its occurrence. Modelling in financial markets is categorized into microscopic models and macroscopic models. The microscopic models study the mechanisms behind the market and their behaviour. These models assist in an understanding of the causes of financial market crashes. Macroscopic models find the disciplines and rules from the historical macroscopic data for ...
Owen, Rhiannon K; Tincello, Douglas G; Keith, R Abrams
2015-01-01
Network meta-analysis (NMA) is commonly used in evidence synthesis; however, in situations in which there are a large number of treatment options, which may be subdivided into classes, and relatively few trials, NMAs produce considerable uncertainty in the estimated treatment effects, and consequently, identification of the most beneficial intervention remains inconclusive. To develop and demonstrate the use of evidence synthesis methods to evaluate extensive treatment networks with a limited number of trials, making use of classes. Using Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, we build on the existing work of a random effects NMA to develop a three-level hierarchical NMA model that accounts for the exchangeability between treatments within the same class as well as for the residual between-study heterogeneity. We demonstrate the application of these methods to a continuous and binary outcome, using a motivating example of overactive bladder. We illustrate methods for incorporating ordering constraints in increasing doses, model selection, and assessing inconsistency between the direct and indirect evidence. The methods were applied to a data set obtained from a systematic literature review of trials for overactive bladder, evaluating the mean reduction in incontinence episodes from baseline and the number of patients reporting one or more adverse events. The data set involved 72 trials comparing 34 interventions that were categorized into nine classes of interventions, including placebo. Bayesian three-level hierarchical NMAs have the potential to increase the precision in the effect estimates while maintaining the interpretability of the individual interventions for decision making. Copyright © 2015 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Scheuerell, Mark D; Buhle, Eric R; Semmens, Brice X; Ford, Michael J; Cooney, Tom; Carmichael, Richard W
2015-05-01
Myriad human activities increasingly threaten the existence of many species. A variety of conservation interventions such as habitat restoration, protected areas, and captive breeding have been used to prevent extinctions. Evaluating the effectiveness of these interventions requires appropriate statistical methods, given the quantity and quality of available data. Historically, analysis of variance has been used with some form of predetermined before-after control-impact design to estimate the effects of large-scale experiments or conservation interventions. However, ad hoc retrospective study designs or the presence of random effects at multiple scales may preclude the use of these tools. We evaluated the effects of a large-scale supplementation program on the density of adult Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha from the Snake River basin in the northwestern United States currently listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. We analyzed 43 years of data from 22 populations, accounting for random effects across time and space using a form of Bayesian hierarchical time-series model common in analyses of financial markets. We found that varying degrees of supplementation over a period of 25 years increased the density of natural-origin adults, on average, by 0-8% relative to nonsupplementation years. Thirty-nine of the 43 year effects were at least two times larger in magnitude than the mean supplementation effect, suggesting common environmental variables play a more important role in driving interannual variability in adult density. Additional residual variation in density varied considerably across the region, but there was no systematic difference between supplemented and reference populations. Our results demonstrate the power of hierarchical Bayesian models to detect the diffuse effects of management interventions and to quantitatively describe the variability of intervention success. Nevertheless, our study could not address whether ecological factors
Modeling post-fledging survival of lark buntings in response to ecological and biological factors
Yackel Adams, A.A.; Skagen, S.K.; Savidge, J.A.
2006-01-01
We evaluated the influences of several ecological, biological, and methodological factors on post-fledging survival of a shortgrass prairie bird, the Lark Bunting (Calamospiza melanocorys). We estimated daily post-fledging survival (n = 206, 82 broods) using radiotelemetry and color bands to track fledglings. Daily survival probabilities were best explained by drought intensity, time in season (quadratic trend), ages ≤3 d post-fledging, and rank given drought intensity. Drought intensity had a strong negative effect on survival. Rank was an important predictor of fledgling survival only during the severe drought of 2002 when the smallest fledglings had lower survival. Recently fledged young (ages ≤3 d post-fledging) undergoing the transition from nest to surrounding habitat experienced markedly lower survival, demonstrating the vulnerable nature of this time period. Survival was greater in mid and late season than early season, corresponding to our assumptions of food availability. Neither mark type nor sex of attending parent influenced survival. The model-averaged product of the 22-d survival calculated using mean rank and median value of time in season was 0.360 ± 0.08 in 2001 and 0.276 ± 0.08 in 2002. Survival estimates that account for age, condition of young, ecological conditions, and other factors are important for parameterization of realistic population models. Biologists using population growth models to elucidate mechanisms of population declines should attempt to estimate species-specific of post-fledging survival rather than use generalized estimates.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mehdi Alinaghian
2014-08-01
Full Text Available In the field of health losses resulting from failure to establish the facilities in a suitable location and the required number, beyond the cost and quality of service will result in an increase in mortality and the spread of diseases. So the facility location models have special importance in this area. In this paper, a successively inclusive hierarchical model for location of health centers in term of the transfer of patients from a lower level to a higher level of health centers has been developed. Since determination the exact number of demand for health care in the future is difficult and in order to make the model close to the real conditions of demand uncertainty, a fuzzy programming model based on credibility theory is considered. To evaluate the proposed model, several numerical examples are solved in small size. In order to solve large scale problems, a meta-heuristic algorithm based on harmony search algorithm was developed in conjunction with the GAMS software which indicants the performance of the proposed algorithm.
An, Soyoung; Choi, Woochul; Paik, Se-Bum
2015-11-01
Understanding the mechanism of information processing in the human brain remains a unique challenge because the nonlinear interactions between the neurons in the network are extremely complex and because controlling every relevant parameter during an experiment is difficult. Therefore, a simulation using simplified computational models may be an effective approach. In the present study, we developed a general model of neural networks that can simulate nonlinear activity patterns in the hierarchical structure of a neural network system. To test our model, we first examined whether our simulation could match the previously-observed nonlinear features of neural activity patterns. Next, we performed a psychophysics experiment for a simple visual working memory task to evaluate whether the model could predict the performance of human subjects. Our studies show that the model is capable of reproducing the relationship between memory load and performance and may contribute, in part, to our understanding of how the structure of neural circuits can determine the nonlinear neural activity patterns in the human brain.
Hardebol, Nico; Bertotti, Giovanni; Weltje, Gert Jan
2014-05-01
We propose the description of fracture-fault systems in terms of a multi-scale hierarchical network. In most generic form, such arrangement is referred to as a structural fabric and applicable across the length scale spectrum. The statistical characterisation combines the fracture length and orientation distributions and intersection-termination relationships. The aim is a parameterised description of the network that serves as input in stochastic network simulations that should reproduce the essence of natural fracture networks and encompass its variability. The quality of the stochastically generated fabric is determined by comparison with deterministic descriptions on which the model parameterisation is based. Both the deterministic and stochastic derived fracture network description can serve as input in fluid flow or mechanical simulations that accounts explicitly for the discrete features and the response of the system can be compared. The deterministic description of our current study in the framework of tight gas reservoirs is obtained from coastal pavements that expose a horizontal slice through a fracture-fault network system in fine grained sediments in Yorkshire, UK. Fracture hierarchies have often been described at one observation scale as a two-tier hierarchy in terms of 1st order systematic joints and 2nd order cross-joints. New in our description is the bridging between km-sized faults with notable displacement down to sub-meter scale shear and opening mode fractures. This study utilized a drone to obtain cm-resolution imagery of pavements from ~30m altitude and the large coverage up to 1-km by flying at a ~80m. This unique set of images forms the basis for the digitizing of the fracture-fault pattern and helped determining the nested nature of the network as well as intersection and abutment relationships. Fracture sets were defined from the highest to lowest hierarchical order and probability density functions were defined for the length
Boyer, Tim C; Hanson, Tim; Singer, Randall S
2013-01-01
Analysis of gene quantities measured by quantitative real-time PCR (qPCR) can be complicated by observations that are below the limit of quantification (LOQ) of the assay. A hierarchical model estimated using MCMC methods was developed to analyze qPCR data of genes with observations that fall below the LOQ (censored observations). Simulated datasets with moderate to very high levels of censoring were used to assess the performance of the model; model results were compared to approaches that replace censored observations with a value on the log scale approximating zero or with values ranging from one to the LOQ of ten gene copies. The model was also compared to a Tobit regression model. Finally, all approaches for handling censored observations were evaluated with DNA extracted from samples that were spiked with known quantities of the antibiotic resistance gene tetL. For the simulated datasets, the model outperformed substitution of all values from 1-10 under all censoring scenarios in terms of bias, mean square error, and coverage of 95% confidence intervals for regression parameters. The model performed as well or better than substitution of a value approximating zero under two censoring scenarios (approximately 57% and 79% censored values). The model also performed as well or better than Tobit regression in two of three censoring scenarios (approximately 79% and 93% censored values). Under the levels of censoring present in the three scenarios of this study, substitution of any values greater than 0 produced the least accurate results. When applied to data produced from spiked samples, the model produced the lowest mean square error of the three approaches. This model provides a good alternative for analyzing large amounts of left-censored qPCR data when the goal is estimation of population parameters. The flexibility of this approach can accommodate complex study designs such as longitudinal studies.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Tim C Boyer
Full Text Available Analysis of gene quantities measured by quantitative real-time PCR (qPCR can be complicated by observations that are below the limit of quantification (LOQ of the assay. A hierarchical model estimated using MCMC methods was developed to analyze qPCR data of genes with observations that fall below the LOQ (censored observations. Simulated datasets with moderate to very high levels of censoring were used to assess the performance of the model; model results were compared to approaches that replace censored observations with a value on the log scale approximating zero or with values ranging from one to the LOQ of ten gene copies. The model was also compared to a Tobit regression model. Finally, all approaches for handling censored observations were evaluated with DNA extracted from samples that were spiked with known quantities of the antibiotic resistance gene tetL. For the simulated datasets, the model outperformed substitution of all values from 1-10 under all censoring scenarios in terms of bias, mean square error, and coverage of 95% confidence intervals for regression parameters. The model performed as well or better than substitution of a value approximating zero under two censoring scenarios (approximately 57% and 79% censored values. The model also performed as well or better than Tobit regression in two of three censoring scenarios (approximately 79% and 93% censored values. Under the levels of censoring present in the three scenarios of this study, substitution of any values greater than 0 produced the least accurate results. When applied to data produced from spiked samples, the model produced the lowest mean square error of the three approaches. This model provides a good alternative for analyzing large amounts of left-censored qPCR data when the goal is estimation of population parameters. The flexibility of this approach can accommodate complex study designs such as longitudinal studies.
A mixture model for the joint analysis of latent developmental trajectories and survival
Klein Entink, R.H.; Fox, J.P.; Hout, A. van den
2011-01-01
A general joint modeling framework is proposed that includes a parametric stratified survival component for continuous time survival data, and a mixture multilevel item response component to model latent developmental trajectories given mixed discrete response data. The joint model is illustrated in
Weeks, Justin W
2015-01-01
Wang, Hsu, Chiu, and Liang (2012, Journal of Anxiety Disorders, 26, 215-224) recently proposed a hierarchical model of social interaction anxiety and depression to account for both the commonalities and distinctions between these conditions. In the present paper, this model was extended to more broadly encompass the symptoms of social anxiety disorder, and replicated in a large unselected, undergraduate sample (n = 585). Structural equation modeling (SEM) and hierarchical regression analyses were employed. Negative affect and positive affect were conceptualized as general factors shared by social anxiety and depression; fear of negative evaluation (FNE) and disqualification of positive social outcomes were operationalized as specific factors, and fear of positive evaluation (FPE) was operationalized as a factor unique to social anxiety. This extended hierarchical model explicates structural relationships among these factors, in which the higher-level, general factors (i.e., high negative affect and low positive affect) represent vulnerability markers of both social anxiety and depression, and the lower-level factors (i.e., FNE, disqualification of positive social outcomes, and FPE) are the dimensions of specific cognitive features. Results from SEM and hierarchical regression analyses converged in support of the extended model. FPE is further supported as a key symptom that differentiates social anxiety from depression.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Rome Samanta
2016-03-01
Full Text Available We evaluate the Majorana phases for a general 3×3 complex symmetric neutrino mass matrix on the basis of Mohapatra–Rodejohann's phase convention using the three rephasing invariant quantities I12, I13 and I23 proposed by Sarkar and Singh. We find them interesting as they allow us to evaluate each Majorana phase in a model independent way even if one eigenvalue is zero. Utilizing the solution of a general complex symmetric mass matrix for eigenvalues and mixing angles we determine the Majorana phases for both the hierarchies, normal and inverted, taking into account the constraints from neutrino oscillation global fit data as well as bound on the sum of the three light neutrino masses (Σimi and the neutrinoless double beta decay (ββ0ν parameter |m11|. This methodology of finding the Majorana phases is applied thereafter in some predictive models for both the hierarchical cases (normal and inverted to evaluate the corresponding Majorana phases and it is shown that all the sub cases presented in inverted hierarchy section can be realized in a model with texture zeros and scaling ansatz within the framework of inverse seesaw although one of the sub cases following the normal hierarchy is yet to be established. Except the case of quasi degenerate neutrinos, the methodology obtained in this work is able to evaluate the corresponding Majorana phases, given any model of neutrino masses.
Sillett, T Scott; Chandler, Richard B; Royle, J Andrew; Kery, Marc; Morrison, Scott A
2012-10-01
Population size and habitat-specific abundance estimates are essential for conservation management. A major impediment to obtaining such estimates is that few statistical models are able to simultaneously account for both spatial variation in abundance and heterogeneity in detection probability, and still be amenable to large-scale applications. The hierarchical distance-sampling model of J. A. Royle, D. K. Dawson, and S. Bates provides a practical solution. Here, we extend this model to estimate habitat-specific abundance and rangewide population size of a bird species of management concern, the Island Scrub-Jay (Aphelocoma insularis), which occurs solely on Santa Cruz Island, California, USA. We surveyed 307 randomly selected, 300 m diameter, point locations throughout the 250-km2 island during October 2008 and April 2009. Population size was estimated to be 2267 (95% CI 1613-3007) and 1705 (1212-2369) during the fall and spring respectively, considerably lower than a previously published but statistically problematic estimate of 12 500. This large discrepancy emphasizes the importance of proper survey design and analysis for obtaining reliable information for management decisions. Jays were most abundant in low-elevation chaparral habitat; the detection function depended primarily on the percent cover of chaparral and forest within count circles. Vegetation change on the island has been dramatic in recent decades, due to release from herbivory following the eradication of feral sheep (Ovis aries) from the majority of the island in the mid-1980s. We applied best-fit fall and spring models of habitat-specific jay abundance to a vegetation map from 1985, and estimated the population size of A. insularis was 1400-1500 at that time. The 20-30% increase in the jay population suggests that the species has benefited from the recovery of native vegetation since sheep removal. Nevertheless, this jay's tiny range and small population size make it vulnerable to natural
De los Santos, Saturnino; Norland, Emmalou Van Tilburg
A study evaluated the cacao farmer training program in the Dominican Republic by testing hypothesized relationships among reactions, knowledge and skills, attitudes, aspirations, and some selected demographic characteristics of farmers who attended programs. Bennett's hierarchical model of program evaluation was used as the framework of the study.…
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Christopher P Calderon
Full Text Available Understanding the basis for intracellular motion is critical as the field moves toward a deeper understanding of the relation between Brownian forces, molecular crowding, and anisotropic (or isotropic energetic forcing. Effective forces and other parameters used to summarize molecular motion change over time in live cells due to latent state changes, e.g., changes induced by dynamic micro-environments, photobleaching, and other heterogeneity inherent in biological processes. This study discusses limitations in currently popular analysis methods (e.g., mean square displacement-based analyses and how new techniques can be used to systematically analyze Single Particle Tracking (SPT data experiencing abrupt state changes in time or space. The approach is to track GFP tagged chromatids in metaphase in live yeast cells and quantitatively probe the effective forces resulting from dynamic interactions that reflect the sum of a number of physical phenomena. State changes can be induced by various sources including: microtubule dynamics exerting force through the centromere, thermal polymer fluctuations, and DNA-based molecular machines including polymerases and protein exchange complexes such as chaperones and chromatin remodeling complexes. Simulations aiming to show the relevance of the approach to more general SPT data analyses are also studied. Refined force estimates are obtained by adopting and modifying a nonparametric Bayesian modeling technique, the Hierarchical Dirichlet Process Switching Linear Dynamical System (HDP-SLDS, for SPT applications. The HDP-SLDS method shows promise in systematically identifying dynamical regime changes induced by unobserved state changes when the number of underlying states is unknown in advance (a common problem in SPT applications. We expand on the relevance of the HDP-SLDS approach, review the relevant background of Hierarchical Dirichlet Processes, show how to map discrete time HDP-SLDS models to classic SPT
Rebane, George J.
1996-01-01
This paper presents a view of a large scale interactive television system (ITVS) based on an hierarchical architecture of intelligent store/forward nodes. The described ITVS functions within the purview of local knowledge and distributed control which the author argues is the reasonable approach to managing the complexity of such systems. The major data handling themes are outlined and a case is made for the use of segmented burst transmissions. A feature of such an ITVS is the asymmetrical bandwidth requirements for upstream demand (`the back channel') and downstream fulfillment flows. This leads to the identification of an important operational characteristic of such systems which is summarized as the Demand Conservation Principle. The application of this conservation principle is shown to support the development of analytical performance models under an achievable set of assumptions for practical systems. An approach to the development of such models is presented using the ability to collapse large vertical partitions of such systems into a generalized demand cascade. This material is based on Intergraphics Associates TN-94031, an unpublished technical note with the same title, that is one of a series of technical notes on the design, performance analysis, and modeling of interactive television systems.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Gong, Zheng; Dai, Peng; Wu, Xiaojie
2017-01-01
In recent years, voltage source multilevel converters are very popular in medium/high-voltage industrial applications, among which the NPC/H-Bridge converter is a popular solution to the medium/high-voltage drive systems. The conventional finite control set model predictive control (FCS-MPC) stra......In recent years, voltage source multilevel converters are very popular in medium/high-voltage industrial applications, among which the NPC/H-Bridge converter is a popular solution to the medium/high-voltage drive systems. The conventional finite control set model predictive control (FCS......-MPC) strategy is not practical for multilevel converters due to their substantial calculation requirements, especially under high number of voltage levels. To solve this problem, a hierarchical model predictive voltage control (HMPVC) strategy with referring to the implementation of g-h coordinate space vector...... calculation is significantly reduced and the advantages of the conventional FCS-MPC strategy are reserved. In addition, a HMPVC-based field oriented control scheme is applied to a drive system with the NPC/H-Bridge converter. Both steady-state and transient performances are evaluated by simulations...
Vavoulis, Dimitrios V.; Taylor, Jenny C.; Schuh, Anna
2017-01-01
Abstract Motivation The identification of genetic variants influencing gene expression (known as expression quantitative trait loci or eQTLs) is important in unravelling the genetic basis of complex traits. Detecting multiple eQTLs simultaneously in a population based on paired DNA-seq and RNA-seq assays employs two competing types of models: models which rely on appropriate transformations of RNA-seq data (and are powered by a mature mathematical theory), or count-based models, which represe...
Hierarchical process modeling : Describing within-run and between-run variations
Klein Entink, R.H.; Fox, J.P.; Betlem, B.H.L.; Roffel, B.
2007-01-01
Run-to-run variability is a common problem for modeling batch-wise and semi-continuous operated processes. Although observed reactor runs show the same trends in process behaviour, each specific reactor run also shows its own characteristics. Until now, available modeling methods were unable to
A Hierarchical Bayes Error Correction Model to Explain Dynamic Effects of Price Changes
D. Fok (Dennis); R. Paap (Richard); C. Horváth (Csilla); Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans)
2005-01-01
textabstractThe authors put forward a sales response model to explain the differences in immediate and dynamic effects of promotional prices and regular prices on sales. The model consists of a vector autoregression rewritten in error-correction format which allows to disentangle the immediate
Elemental abundances in Milky Way-like galaxies from a hierarchical galaxy formation model
De Lucia, Gabriella; Tornatore, Luca; Frenk, Carlos S.; Helmi, Amina; Navarro, Julio F.; White, Simon D. M.
2014-01-01
We develop a new method to account for the finite lifetimes of stars and trace individual abundances within a semi-analytic model of galaxy formation. At variance with previous methods, based on the storage of the (binned) past star formation history of model galaxies, our method projects the
2017-09-01
from this PDF . EMOS models also use multiple linear regression to characterize the sensitivity of a univariate weather quantity—that is, the...classical least-squares approach to multivariate multiple linear regression using both measures-oriented and distributions-oriented scoring rules...14. SUBJECT TERMS ensemble model output statistics, statistical post-processing, multivariate multiple linear regression, Bayesian data analysis
Wang, Weikang; Quan, Yi; Fu, Qibin; Liu, Yu; Liang, Ying; Wu, Jingwen; Yang, Gen; Luo, Chunxiong; Ouyang, Qi; Wang, Yugang
2014-01-01
Tumors are often heterogeneous in which tumor cells of different phenotypes have distinct properties. For scientific and clinical interests, it is of fundamental importance to understand their properties and the dynamic variations among different phenotypes, specifically under radio- and/or chemo-therapy. Currently there are two controversial models describing tumor heterogeneity, the cancer stem cell (CSC) model and the stochastic model. To clarify the controversy, we measured probabilities of different division types and transitions of cells via in situ immunofluorescence. Based on the experiment data, we constructed a model that combines the CSC with the stochastic concepts, showing the existence of both distinctive CSC subpopulations and the stochastic transitions from NSCCs to CSCs. The results showed that the dynamic variations between CSCs and non-stem cancer cells (NSCCs) can be simulated with the model. Further studies also showed that the model can be used to describe the dynamics of the two subpopulations after radiation treatment. More importantly, analysis demonstrated that the experimental detectable equilibrium CSC proportion can be achieved only when the stochastic transitions from NSCCs to CSCs occur, indicating that tumor heterogeneity may exist in a model coordinating with both the CSC and the stochastic concepts. The mathematic model based on experimental parameters may contribute to a better understanding of the tumor heterogeneity, and provide references on the dynamics of CSC subpopulation during radiotherapy.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Weikang Wang
Full Text Available Tumors are often heterogeneous in which tumor cells of different phenotypes have distinct properties. For scientific and clinical interests, it is of fundamental importance to understand their properties and the dynamic variations among different phenotypes, specifically under radio- and/or chemo-therapy. Currently there are two controversial models describing tumor heterogeneity, the cancer stem cell (CSC model and the stochastic model. To clarify the controversy, we measured probabilities of different division types and transitions of cells via in situ immunofluorescence. Based on the experiment data, we constructed a model that combines the CSC with the stochastic concepts, showing the existence of both distinctive CSC subpopulations and the stochastic transitions from NSCCs to CSCs. The results showed that the dynamic variations between CSCs and non-stem cancer cells (NSCCs can be simulated with the model. Further studies also showed that the model can be used to describe the dynamics of the two subpopulations after radiation treatment. More importantly, analysis demonstrated that the experimental detectable equilibrium CSC proportion can be achieved only when the stochastic transitions from NSCCs to CSCs occur, indicating that tumor heterogeneity may exist in a model coordinating with both the CSC and the stochastic concepts. The mathematic model based on experimental parameters may contribute to a better understanding of the tumor heterogeneity, and provide references on the dynamics of CSC subpopulation during radiotherapy.
A non-parametric hierarchical model to discover behavior dynamics from tracks
Kooij, J.F.P.; Englebienne, G.; Gavrila, D.M.
2012-01-01
We present a novel non-parametric Bayesian model to jointly discover the dynamics of low-level actions and high-level behaviors of tracked people in open environments. Our model represents behaviors as Markov chains of actions which capture high-level temporal dynamics. Actions may be shared by
Zhang, Dezhi; Li, Shuangyan
2014-01-01
This paper proposes a new model of simultaneous optimization of three-level logistics decisions, for logistics authorities, logistics operators, and logistics users, for regional logistics network with environmental impact consideration. The proposed model addresses the interaction among the three logistics players in a complete competitive logistics service market with CO2 emission charges. We also explicitly incorporate the impacts of the scale economics of the logistics park and the logistics users' demand elasticity into the model. The logistics authorities aim to maximize the total social welfare of the system, considering the demand of green logistics development by two different methods: optimal location of logistics nodes and charging a CO2 emission tax. Logistics operators are assumed to compete with logistics service fare and frequency, while logistics users minimize their own perceived logistics disutility given logistics operators' service fare and frequency. A heuristic algorithm based on the multinomial logit model is presented for the three-level decision model, and a numerical example is given to illustrate the above optimal model and its algorithm. The proposed model provides a useful tool for modeling competitive logistics services and evaluating logistics policies at the strategic level. PMID:24977209
Hierarchical classification as relational framing.
Slattery, Brian; Stewart, Ian
2014-01-01
The purpose of this study was to model hierarchical classification as contextually controlled, generalized relational responding or relational framing. In Experiment 1, a training procedure involving nonarbitrarily related multidimensional stimuli was used to establish two arbitrary shapes as contextual cues for 'member of' and 'includes' relational responding, respectively. Subsequently those cues were used to establish a network of arbitrary stimuli in particular hierarchical relations with each other, and then test for derivation of further untrained hierarchical relations as well as for transformation of functions. Resultant patterns of relational framing showed properties of transitive class containment, asymmetrical class containment, and unilateral property induction, consistent with conceptions of hierarchical classification as described within the cognitive developmental literature. Experiment 2 extended the basic model by using "fuzzy category" stimuli and providing a better controlled test of transformation of functions. Limitations and future research directions are discussed. © Society for the Experimental Analysis of Behavior.
ESTIMATION OF SURVIVAL FUNCTION BASED ON MODELING OF CENSORING PATTERN
Akio, Suzukawa; Nobuhiro, Taneichi; Department of Animal Production and Agricultural Economics, Obihiro University
2000-01-01
The Kaplan-Meier estimator(KM-estimator)is an important tool in the analysis of right censored data. It is a non-parametric estimator of an unknown survival function of a lifetime random variable. The purpose of this paper is to obtain a semi-parametric estimator of the survival function. In many practical data, there are several patterns of censoring, for example, censoring is apt to occur for the larger observable time. Such a pattern can be expressed by a function defined by conditional pr...
Systems of Systems Modeled by a Hierarchical Part-Whole State-Based Formalism
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Luca Pazzi
2013-11-01
Full Text Available The paper presents an explicit state-based modeling approach aimed at modeling Systems of Systems behavior. The approach allows to specify and verify incrementally safety and liveness rules without using model checking techniques. The state-based approach allows moreover to use the system behavior directly as an interface, greatly improving the effectiveness of the recursive composition needed when assembling Systems of Systems. Such systems are, at the same time, both parts and wholes, thus giving a formal characterization to the notion of Holon.
Ron, Gil; Globerson, Yuval; Moran, Dror; Kaplan, Tommy
2017-12-21
Proximity-ligation methods such as Hi-C allow us to map physical DNA-DNA interactions along the genome, and reveal its organization into topologically associating domains (TADs). As the Hi-C data accumulate, computational methods were developed for identifying domain borders in multiple cell types and organisms. Here, we present PSYCHIC, a computational approach for analyzing Hi-C data and identifying promoter-enhancer interactions. We use a unified probabilistic model to segment the genome into domains, which we then merge hierarchically and fit using a local background model, allowing us to identify over-represented DNA-DNA interactions across the genome. By analyzing the published Hi-C data sets in human and mouse, we identify hundreds of thousands of putative enhancers and their target genes, and compile an extensive genome-wide catalog of gene regulation in human and mouse. As we show, our predictions are highly enriched for ChIP-seq and DNA accessibility data, evolutionary conservation, eQTLs and other DNA-DNA interaction data.
Shen, B.-W.; Tao, W.-K.; Lau, W. K.; Atlas, R.
2010-01-01
Very severe cyclonic storm Nargis devastated Burma (Myanmar) in May 2008, caused tremendous damage and numerous fatalities, and became one of the 10 deadliest tropical cyclones (TCs) of all time. To increase the warning time in order to save lives and reduce economic damage, it is important to extend the lead time in the prediction of TCs like Nargis. As recent advances in high-resolution global models and supercomputing technology have shown the potential for improving TC track and intensity forecasts, the ability of a global mesoscale model to predict TC genesis in the Indian Ocean is examined in this study with the aim of improving simulations of TC climate. High-resolution global simulations with real data show that the initial formation and intensity variations of TC Nargis can be realistically predicted up to 5 days in advance. Preliminary analysis suggests that improved representations of the following environmental conditions and their hierarchical multiscale interactions were the key to achieving this lead time: (1) a westerly wind burst and equatorial trough, (2) an enhanced monsoon circulation with a zero wind shear line, (3) good upper-level outflow with anti-cyclonic wind shear between 200 and 850 hPa, and (4) low-level moisture convergence.
Huizingh, Eelko K.R.E.; Zengerink, Evelien
2001-01-01
Accurate measurement of marketing performance is an important topic for both marketing academics and marketing managers. Many researchers have recognized that marketing performance measurement should go beyond financial measurement. In this paper we propose a conceptual framework that models
A BAYESIAN HIERARCHICAL SPATIAL POINT PROCESS MODEL FOR MULTI-TYPE NEUROIMAGING META-ANALYSIS.
Kang, Jian; Nichols, Thomas E; Wager, Tor D; Johnson, Timothy D
2014-09-01
Neuroimaging meta-analysis is an important tool for finding consistent effects over studies that each usually have 20 or fewer subjects. Interest in meta-analysis in brain mapping is also driven by a recent focus on so-called "reverse inference": where as traditional "forward inference" identifies the regions of the brain involved in a task, a reverse inference identifies the cognitive processes that a task engages. Such reverse inferences, however, requires a set of meta-analysis, one for each possible cognitive domain. However, existing methods for neuroimaging meta-analysis have significant limitations. Commonly used methods for neuroimaging meta-analysis are not model based, do not provide interpretable parameter estimates, and only produce null hypothesis inferences; further, they are generally designed for a single group of studies and cannot produce reverse inferences. In this work we address these limitations by adopting a non-parametric Bayesian approach for meta analysis data from multiple classes or types of studies. In particular, foci from each type of study are modeled as a cluster process driven by a random intensity function that is modeled as a kernel convolution of a gamma random field. The type-specific gamma random fields are linked and modeled as a realization of a common gamma random field, shared by all types, that induces correlation between study types and mimics the behavior of a univariate mixed effects model. We illustrate our model on simulation studies and a meta analysis of five emotions from 219 studies and check model fit by a posterior predictive assessment. In addition, we implement reverse inference by using the model to predict study type from a newly presented study. We evaluate this predictive performance via leave-one-out cross validation that is efficiently implemented using importance sampling techniques.
A hierarchical Bayesian spatio-temporal model for extreme precipitation events
Ghosh, Souparno
2011-03-01
We propose a new approach to model a sequence of spatially distributed time series of extreme values. Unlike common practice, we incorporate spatial dependence directly in the likelihood and allow the temporal component to be captured at the second level of hierarchy. Inferences about the parameters and spatio-temporal predictions are obtained via MCMC technique. The model is fitted to a gridded precipitation data set collected over 99 years across the continental U.S. © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd..
HI-Selected Galaxies in Hierarchical Models of Galaxy Formation and Evolution
Zoldan, Anna
2017-07-01
This poster presents the main results of a statistical study of HI-selected galaxies based on six different semi-analytic models, all run on the same cosmological N-body simulation. One of these models includes an explicit treatment for the partition of cold gas into atomic and molecular hydrogen. All models considered agree nicely with the measured HI mass function in the local Universe and with the measured scaling relations between HI and galaxy stellar mass. Most models also reproduce the observed 2-point correlation function for HI rich galaxies, with the exception of one model that predicts very little HI associated with galaxies in haloes above 10^12 Msun. We investigated the influence of satellite treatment on the final HI content and found that it introduces large uncertainties at low HI masses. We found that the assumption of instantaneous stripping of hot gas in satellites does not translate necessarily in lower HI masses. We demonstrate that the assumed stellar feedback, combined with star formation, also affect significantly the gas content of satellite galaxies. Finally, we also analyse the origin of the correlation between HI content of model galaxies and the spin of the parent haloes. Zoldan et al., 2016, MNRAS, 465, 2236
Sanchez, P.; Hinojosa, J.; Ruiz, R.
2005-06-01
Recently, neuromodeling methods of microwave devices have been developed. These methods are suitable for the model generation of novel devices. They allow fast and accurate simulations and optimizations. However, the development of libraries makes these methods to be a formidable task, since they require massive input-output data provided by an electromagnetic simulator or measurements and repeated artificial neural network (ANN) training. This paper presents a strategy reducing the cost of library development with the advantages of the neuromodeling methods: high accuracy, large range of geometrical and material parameters and reduced CPU time. The library models are developed from a set of base prior knowledge input (PKI) models, which take into account the characteristics common to all the models in the library, and high-level ANNs which give the library model outputs from base PKI models. This technique is illustrated for a microwave multiconductor tunable phase shifter using anisotropic substrates. Closed-form relationships have been developed and are presented in this paper. The results show good agreement with the expected ones.
Chen, Cong; Zhang, Guohui; Tian, Zong; Bogus, Susan M; Yang, Yin
2015-12-01
Traffic crashes occurring on rural roadways induce more severe injuries and fatalities than those in urban areas, especially when there are trucks involved. Truck drivers are found to suffer higher potential of crash injuries compared with other occupational labors. Besides, unobserved heterogeneity in crash data analysis is a critical issue that needs to be carefully addressed. In this study, a hierarchical Bayesian random intercept model decomposing cross-level interaction effects as unobserved heterogeneity is developed to examine the posterior probabilities of truck driver injuries in rural truck-involved crashes. The interaction effects contributing to truck driver injury outcomes are investigated based on two-year rural truck-involved crashes in New Mexico from 2010 to 2011. The analysis results indicate that the cross-level interaction effects play an important role in predicting truck driver injury severities, and the proposed model produces comparable performance with the traditional random intercept model and the mixed logit model even after penalization by high model complexity. It is revealed that factors including road grade, number of vehicles involved in a crash, maximum vehicle damage in a crash, vehicle actions, driver age, seatbelt use, and driver under alcohol or drug influence, as well as a portion of their cross-level interaction effects with other variables are significantly associated with truck driver incapacitating injuries and fatalities. These findings are helpful to understand the respective or joint impacts of these attributes on truck driver injury patterns in rural truck-involved crashes. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Clemens, Noel [Univ. of Texas, Austin, TX (United States)
2015-09-30
This project was a combined computational and experimental effort to improve predictive capability for boundary layer flashback of premixed swirl flames relevant to gas-turbine power plants operating with high-hydrogen-content fuels. During the course of this project, significant progress in modeling was made on four major fronts: 1) use of direct numerical simulation of turbulent flames to understand the coupling between the flame and the turbulent boundary layer; 2) improved modeling capability for flame propagation in stratified pre-mixtures; 3) improved portability of computer codes using the OpenFOAM platform to facilitate transfer to industry and other researchers; and 4) application of LES to flashback in swirl combustors, and a detailed assessment of its capabilities and limitations for predictive purposes. A major component of the project was an experimental program that focused on developing a rich experimental database of boundary layer flashback in swirl flames. Both methane and high-hydrogen fuels, including effects of elevated pressure (1 to 5 atm), were explored. For this project, a new model swirl combustor was developed. Kilohertz-rate stereoscopic PIV and chemiluminescence imaging were used to investigate the flame propagation dynamics. In addition to the planar measurements, a technique capable of detecting the instantaneous, time-resolved 3D flame front topography was developed and applied successfully to investigate the flow-flame interaction. The UT measurements and legacy data were used in a hierarchical validation approach where flows with increasingly complex physics were used for validation. First component models were validated with DNS and literature data in simplified configurations, and this was followed by validation with the UT 1-atm flashback cases, and then the UT high-pressure flashback cases. The new models and portable code represent a major improvement over what was available before this project was initiated.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Serje eRobidoux
2014-03-01
Full Text Available DRC (Coltheart et al., 2001 and CDP++ (Perry, Zorzi, & Ziegler, 2010 are two of the most successful models of reading aloud. These models differ primarily in how their sublexical systems convert letter strings into phonological codes. DRC adopts a set of grapheme-to-phoneme conversion rules (GPCs while CDP++ uses a simple trained network that has been exposed to a combination of rules and the spellings and pronunciations of known words. Thus far the debate between fixed rules and learned associations has largely emphasized reaction time experiments, error rates in dyslexias, and item-level variance from large-scale databases. Recently, Pritchard, Coltheart, Palethorpe, and Castles (2012 examined the models’ nonword reading in a new way. They compared responses produced by the models to those produced by 45 skilled readers. Their item-by-item analysis is informative, but leaves open some questions that can be addressed with a different technique. Using hierarchical clustering techniques, we first examined the subject data to identify if there are classes of subjects that are similar to each other in their overall response profiles. We found that there are indeed two groups of subject that differ in their pronunciations for certain consonant clusters. We also tested the possibility that CDP++ is modeling one set of subjects well, while DRC is modeling a different set of subjects. We found that CDP++ does not fit any human reader’s response pattern very well, while DRC fits the human readers as well as or better than any other reader.
Mandel, Kaisey S.; Scolnic, Daniel M.; Shariff, Hikmatali; Foley, Ryan J.; Kirshner, Robert P.
2017-06-01
Conventional Type Ia supernova (SN Ia) cosmology analyses currently use a simplistic linear regression of magnitude versus color and light curve shape, which does not model intrinsic SN Ia variations and host galaxy dust as physically distinct effects, resulting in low color-magnitude slopes. We construct a probabilistic generative model for the dusty distribution of extinguished absolute magnitudes and apparent colors as the convolution of an intrinsic SN Ia color-magnitude distribution and a host galaxy dust reddening-extinction distribution. If the intrinsic color-magnitude (M B versus B - V) slope {β }{int} differs from the host galaxy dust law R B , this convolution results in a specific curve of mean extinguished absolute magnitude versus apparent color. The derivative of this curve smoothly transitions from {β }{int} in the blue tail to R B in the red tail of the apparent color distribution. The conventional linear fit approximates this effective curve near the average apparent color, resulting in an apparent slope {β }{app} between {β }{int} and R B . We incorporate these effects into a hierarchical Bayesian statistical model for SN Ia light curve measurements, and analyze a data set of SALT2 optical light curve fits of 248 nearby SNe Ia at z< 0.10. The conventional linear fit gives {β }{app}≈ 3. Our model finds {β }{int}=2.3+/- 0.3 and a distinct dust law of {R}B=3.8+/- 0.3, consistent with the average for Milky Way dust, while correcting a systematic distance bias of ˜0.10 mag in the tails of the apparent color distribution. Finally, we extend our model to examine the SN Ia luminosity-host mass dependence in terms of intrinsic and dust components.
In-season retail sales forecasting using survival models | Hattingh ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
In order to identify products that should be marked down, the Retailer forecasts future sales of new products. With the aim of improving on the Retailer's current sales forecasting method, this study investigates statistical techniques, viz. classical time series analysis (Holt's smoothing method) and survival analysis. Forecasts ...
Modeling growth performances, survival, and feed efficiency of four ...
African Journals Online (AJOL)
Survival, feed efficiency and growth performances of four local breeds of chickens in West Cameroon (normally feathered NF, feathered tarsus FT, crested C and naked neck NN,) have been compared from hatch to 16 weeks, to determine which one could be improved by selection. Gompertz equation was used to fit growth ...
Hierarchical Bayes Small Area Estimation under a Unit Level Model with Applications in Agriculture
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Nageena Nazir
2016-09-01
Full Text Available To studied Bayesian aspect of small area estimation using Unit level model. In this paper we proposed and evaluated new prior distribution for the ratio of variance components in unit level model rather than uniform prior. To approximate the posterior moments of small area means, Laplace approximation method is applied. This choice of prior avoids the extreme skewness, usually present in the posterior distribution of variance components. This property leads to more accurate Laplace approximation. We apply the proposed model to the analysis of horticultural data and results from the model are compared with frequestist approach and with Bayesian model of uniform prior in terms of average relative bias, average squared relative bias and average absolute bias. The numerical results obtained highlighted the superiority of using the proposed prior over the uniform prior. Thus Bayes estimators (with new prior of small area means have good frequentist properties such as MSE and ARB as compared to other traditional methods viz., Direct, Synthetic and Composite estimators.
Dorazio, Robert; Karanth, K. Ullas
2017-01-01
MotivationSeveral spatial capture-recapture (SCR) models have been developed to estimate animal abundance by analyzing the detections of individuals in a spatial array of traps. Most of these models do not use the actual dates and times of detection, even though this information is readily available when using continuous-time recorders, such as microphones or motion-activated cameras. Instead most SCR models either partition the period of trap operation into a set of subjectively chosen discrete intervals and ignore multiple detections of the same individual within each interval, or they simply use the frequency of detections during the period of trap operation and ignore the observed times of detection. Both practices make inefficient use of potentially important information in the data.Model and data analysisWe developed a hierarchical SCR model to estimate the spatial distribution and abundance of animals detected with continuous-time recorders. Our model includes two kinds of point processes: a spatial process to specify the distribution of latent activity centers of individuals within the region of sampling and a temporal process to specify temporal patterns in the detections of individuals. We illustrated this SCR model by analyzing spatial and temporal patterns evident in the camera-trap detections of tigers living in and around the Nagarahole Tiger Reserve in India. We also conducted a simulation study to examine the performance of our model when analyzing data sets of greater complexity than the tiger data.BenefitsOur approach provides three important benefits: First, it exploits all of the information in SCR data obtained using continuous-time recorders. Second, it is sufficiently versatile to allow the effects of both space use and behavior of animals to be specified as functions of covariates that vary over space and time. Third, it allows both the spatial distribution and abundance of individuals to be estimated, effectively providing a species
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Meng, Lexuan; Dragicevic, Tomislav; Roldan Perez, Javier
2016-01-01
in the communication network, continuous-time methods can be inaccurate for this kind of dynamic study. Therefore, this paper aims at modeling a complete DC MG using a discrete-time approach in order to perform a sensitivity analysis taking into account the effects of the consensus algorithm. To this end...... a challenging issue when these kinds of algorithms are used, since the dynamics of the electrical and the communication systems interact with each other. Moreover, the transmission rate and topology of the communication network also affect the system dynamics. Due to discrete nature of the information exchange......, a generalized modeling method is proposed and the influence of key control parameters, the communication topology and the communication speed are studied in detail. The theoretical results obtained with the proposed model are verified by comparing them with the results obtained with a detailed switching...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
2016-01-01
Full Text Available Solving modern scientific and engineering problems typically implies using multiple task-specific software appli- cations and often a complex sequence of computations must be performed. Adopted approach to achieve the required level of automation is to use one of the many available scientific and engineering workflow systems, which can be based on dif- ferent workflow models. This paper introduces a workflow model targeted to provide natural automation and distributed execution of complex iterative computation processes, where the calculation chain contains multiple task-specific software applications which exchange files during the process.The proposed workflow model addresses a wide range of applications and targets complex cases when a single it- eration of a top-level process may contain multiple nested execution loops. Typical requirements to process automation are considered as well: execution isolation, data re-use and caching, parallel execution, data provenance tracking.
Foo, Jody
2003-01-01
Managing documents is an integral part of computer use, and with the growing document collections of today, the importance of tools that are both flexible and efficient is becoming more evident. In many cases, the hierarchical file system used by many operating systems is also used for document management purposes. However, by using the file system for document management, restrictions and limitations such as strict hierarchical document classification and the use of non-content-related docum...
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Saravanan, Ramalingam [Texas A& M University
2011-10-30
During the course of this project, we have accomplished the following: a) Carried out studies of climate changes in the past using a hierarchy of intermediate coupled models (Chang et al., 2008; Wan et al 2009; Wen et al., 2010a,b) b) Completed the development of a Coupled Regional Climate Model (CRCM; Patricola et al., 2011a,b) c) Carried out studies testing hypotheses testing the origin of systematic errors in the CRCM (Patricola et al., 2011a,b) d) Carried out studies of the impact of air-sea interaction on hurricanes, in the context of barrier layer interactions (Balaguru et al)
Mandal, Siddhartha; Sen, Pranab K.; Peddada, Shyamal D.
2013-01-01
Ordinary differential equation (ODE) based models find application in a wide variety of biological and physiological phenomena. For instance, they arise in the description of gene regulatory networks, study of viral dynamics and other infectious diseases, etc. In the field of toxicology, they are used in physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models for describing absorption, distribution, metabolism and excretion (ADME) of a chemical in-vivo. Knowledge about the model parameters is important for understanding the mechanism of action of a chemical and are often estimated using non-linear least squares methodology. However, there are several challenges associated with the usual methodology. Using functional data analytic methodology, in this article we develop a general framework for drawing inferences on parameters in models described by a system of differential equations. The proposed methodology takes into account variability between and within experimental units. The performance of the proposed methodology is evaluated using a simulation study and data obtained from a benzene inhalation study. We also describe a R-based software developed towards this purpose. PMID:23682216
Wynton, Sarah K. A.; Anglim, Jeromy
2017-01-01
While researchers have often sought to understand the learning curve in terms of multiple component processes, few studies have measured and mathematically modeled these processes on a complex task. In particular, there remains a need to reconcile how abrupt changes in strategy use can co-occur with gradual changes in task completion time. Thus,…
Hierarchical versus other market share models for markets with many items
Foekens, E.W.; Leeflang, P.S.H.; Wittink, D.R.
1997-01-01
Understanding the competition between products constitutes an important problem area in marketing. The existence of many items in a product category requires that researchers consider placing restrictions on the nature of competition in consumer response models. However, little is known about the
Manual hierarchical clustering of regional geochemical data using a Bayesian finite mixture model
Ellefsen, Karl J.; Smith, David
2016-01-01
Interpretation of regional scale, multivariate geochemical data is aided by a statistical technique called “clustering.” We investigate a particular clustering procedure by applying it to geochemical data collected in the State of Colorado, United States of America. The clustering procedure partitions the field samples for the entire survey area into two clusters. The field samples in each cluster are partitioned again to create two subclusters, and so on. This manual procedure generates a hierarchy of clusters, and the different levels of the hierarchy show geochemical and geological processes occurring at different spatial scales. Although there are many different clustering methods, we use Bayesian finite mixture modeling with two probability distributions, which yields two clusters. The model parameters are estimated with Hamiltonian Monte Carlo sampling of the posterior probability density function, which usually has multiple modes. Each mode has its own set of model parameters; each set is checked to ensure that it is consistent both with the data and with independent geologic knowledge. The set of model parameters that is most consistent with the independent geologic knowledge is selected for detailed interpretation and partitioning of the field samples.
Truong Ngoc Phuong, Phuong; Stein, A.
2017-01-01
Health data and environmental data are commonly collected at different levels of aggregation. A persistent challenge of using a spatial regression model to link these data is that their associations can vary as a function of aggregation. This results into ecological fallacy if association at one
A dynamical model of hierarchical selection and coordination in speech planning.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Sam Tilsen
Full Text Available studies of the control of complex sequential movements have dissociated two aspects of movement planning: control over the sequential selection of movement plans, and control over the precise timing of movement execution. This distinction is particularly relevant in the production of speech: utterances contain sequentially ordered words and syllables, but articulatory movements are often executed in a non-sequential, overlapping manner with precisely coordinated relative timing. This study presents a hybrid dynamical model in which competitive activation controls selection of movement plans and coupled oscillatory systems govern coordination. The model departs from previous approaches by ascribing an important role to competitive selection of articulatory plans within a syllable. Numerical simulations show that the model reproduces a variety of speech production phenomena, such as effects of preparation and utterance composition on reaction time, and asymmetries in patterns of articulatory timing associated with onsets and codas. The model furthermore provides a unified understanding of a diverse group of phonetic and phonological phenomena which have not previously been related.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Dai, Heng [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Chen, Xingyuan [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Ye, Ming [Department of Scientific Computing, Florida State University, Tallahassee Florida USA; Song, Xuehang [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; Zachara, John M. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA
2017-05-01
Sensitivity analysis is an important tool for quantifying uncertainty in the outputs of mathematical models, especially for complex systems with a high dimension of spatially correlated parameters. Variance-based global sensitivity analysis has gained popularity because it can quantify the relative contribution of uncertainty from different sources. However, its computational cost increases dramatically with the complexity of the considered model and the dimension of model parameters. In this study we developed a hierarchical sensitivity analysis method that (1) constructs an uncertainty hierarchy by analyzing the input uncertainty sources, and (2) accounts for the spatial correlation among parameters at each level of the hierarchy using geostatistical tools. The contribution of uncertainty source at each hierarchy level is measured by sensitivity indices calculated using the variance decomposition method. Using this methodology, we identified the most important uncertainty source for a dynamic groundwater flow and solute transport in model at the Department of Energy (DOE) Hanford site. The results indicate that boundary conditions and permeability field contribute the most uncertainty to the simulated head field and tracer plume, respectively. The relative contribution from each source varied spatially and temporally as driven by the dynamic interaction between groundwater and river water at the site. By using a geostatistical approach to reduce the number of realizations needed for the sensitivity analysis, the computational cost of implementing the developed method was reduced to a practically manageable level. The developed sensitivity analysis method is generally applicable to a wide range of hydrologic and environmental problems that deal with high-dimensional spatially-distributed parameters.
Wu, Zhen; Liu, Yong; Liang, Zhongyao; Wu, Sifeng; Guo, Huaicheng
2017-06-01
Lake eutrophication is associated with excessive anthropogenic nutrients (mainly nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P)) and unobserved internal nutrient cycling. Despite the advances in understanding the role of external loadings, the contribution of internal nutrient cycling is still an open question. A dynamic mass-balance model was developed to simulate and measure the contributions of internal cycling and external loading. It was based on the temporal Bayesian Hierarchical Framework (BHM), where we explored the seasonal patterns in the dynamics of nutrient cycling processes and the limitation of N and P on phytoplankton growth in hyper-eutrophic Lake Dianchi, China. The dynamic patterns of the five state variables (Chla, TP, ammonia, nitrate and organic N) were simulated based on the model. Five parameters (algae growth rate, sediment exchange rate of N and P, nitrification rate and denitrification rate) were estimated based on BHM. The model provided a good fit to observations. Our model results highlighted the role of internal cycling of N and P in Lake Dianchi. The internal cycling processes contributed more than external loading to the N and P changes in the water column. Further insights into the nutrient limitation analysis indicated that the sediment exchange of P determined the P limitation. Allowing for the contribution of denitrification to N removal, N was the more limiting nutrient in most of the time, however, P was the more important nutrient for eutrophication management. For Lake Dianchi, it would not be possible to recover solely by reducing the external watershed nutrient load; the mechanisms of internal cycling should also be considered as an approach to inhibit the release of sediments and to enhance denitrification. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Modeling survival: application of the Andersen-Gill model to Yellowstone grizzly bears
Johnson, Christopher J.; Boyce, Mark S.; Schwartz, Charles C.; Haroldson, Mark A.
2004-01-01
Wildlife ecologists often use the Kaplan-Meier procedure or Cox proportional hazards model to estimate survival rates, distributions, and magnitude of risk factors. The Andersen-Gill formulation (A-G) of the Cox proportional hazards model has seen limited application to mark-resight data but has a number of advantages, including the ability to accommodate left-censored data, time-varying covariates, multiple events, and discontinuous intervals of risks. We introduce the A-G model including structure of data, interpretation of results, and assessment of assumptions. We then apply the model to 22 years of radiotelemetry data for grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) of the Greater Yellowstone Grizzly Bear Recovery Zone in Montana, Idaho, and Wyoming, USA. We used Akaike's Information Criterion (AICc) and multi-model inference to assess a number of potentially useful predictive models relative to explanatory covariates for demography, human disturbance, and habitat. Using the most parsimonious models, we generated risk ratios, hypothetical survival curves, and a map of the spatial distribution of high-risk areas across the recovery zone. Our results were in agreement with past studies of mortality factors for Yellowstone grizzly bears. Holding other covariates constant, mortality was highest for bears that were subjected to repeated management actions and inhabited areas with high road densities outside Yellowstone National Park. Hazard models developed with covariates descriptive of foraging habitats were not the most parsimonious, but they suggested that high-elevation areas offered lower risks of mortality when compared to agricultural areas.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Salvador Dura-Bernal
Full Text Available Hierarchical generative models, such as Bayesian networks, and belief propagation have been shown to provide a theoretical framework that can account for perceptual processes, including feedforward recognition and feedback modulation. The framework explains both psychophysical and physiological experimental data and maps well onto the hierarchical distributed cortical anatomy. However, the complexity required to model cortical processes makes inference, even using approximate methods, very computationally expensive. Thus, existing object perception models based on this approach are typically limited to tree-structured networks with no loops, use small toy examples or fail to account for certain perceptual aspects such as invariance to transformations or feedback reconstruction. In this study we develop a Bayesian network with an architecture similar to that of HMAX, a biologically-inspired hierarchical model of object recognition, and use loopy belief propagation to approximate the model operations (selectivity and invariance. Crucially, the resulting Bayesian network extends the functionality of HMAX by including top-down recursive feedback. Thus, the proposed model not only achieves successful feedforward recognition invariant to noise, occlusions, and changes in position and size, but is also able to reproduce modulatory effects such as illusory contour completion and attention. Our novel and rigorous methodology covers key aspects such as learning using a layerwise greedy algorithm, combining feedback information from multiple parents and reducing the number of operations required. Overall, this work extends an established model of object recognition to include high-level feedback modulation, based on state-of-the-art probabilistic approaches. The methodology employed, consistent with evidence from the visual cortex, can be potentially generalized to build models of hierarchical perceptual organization that include top-down and bottom
Survival of hendra virus in the environment: modelling the effect of temperature.
Scanlan, J C; Kung, N Y; Selleck, P W; Field, H E
2015-03-01
Hendra virus (HeV), a highly pathogenic zoonotic paramyxovirus recently emerged from bats, is a major concern to the horse industry in Australia. Previous research has shown that higher temperatures led to lower virus survival rates in the laboratory. We develop a model of survival of HeV in the environment as influenced by temperature. We used 20 years of daily temperature at six locations spanning the geographic range of reported HeV incidents to simulate the temporal and spatial impacts of temperature on HeV survival. At any location, simulated virus survival was greater in winter than in summer, and in any month of the year, survival was higher in higher latitudes. At any location, year-to-year variation in virus survival 24 h post-excretion was substantial and was as large as the difference between locations. Survival was higher in microhabitats with lower than ambient temperature, and when environmental exposure was shorter. The within-year pattern of virus survival mirrored the cumulative within-year occurrence of reported HeV cases, although there were no overall differences in survival in HeV case years and non-case years. The model examines the effect of temperature in isolation; actual virus survivability will reflect the effect of additional environmental factors.
Hierarchical set of models for estimating the effects of air pollution on vegetation
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kercher, J.R.; Axelrod, M.C.; Bingham, G.E.
1981-05-26
Three models have been developed to estimate the effects of air pollutants on vegetation at the photosynthetic process (PHOTO), plant (GROWl), and community (SILVA) levels of resolution. PHOTO simulates the enhancement of photosynthesis at low H/sub 2/S levels, depression of photosynthesis at high H/sub 2/S levels, and the threshold effects for sulfur pollutants. GROWl simulates the growth and development of a plant during a growing season. GROWl has been used to assess the effects on sugar beets of geothermal energy development in the Imperial Valley, California. SILVA is a community-level model simulating the effects of SO/sub 2/ on growth, species composition, and succession, for the mixed conifer forest types of the Sierra Nevada, California.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Meng, Lexuan; Dragicevic, Tomislav; Vasquez, Juan Carlos
2015-01-01
of dynamic study. The aim of this paper is to model the complete DC microgrid system in z-domain and perform sensitivity analysis for the complete system. A generalized modeling method is proposed and the system dynamics under different control parameters, communication topologies and communication speed......Distributed control methods for microgrid systems become a popular topic in recent years. Distributed algorithms, such as consensus algorithms, can be applied for distributed information sharing. However, by using this kind of algorithms the stability analysis becomes a critical issue since...... the dynamics of electrical and communication systems interact with each other. Apart from that, the communication characteristics also affect the dynamics of the system. Due to discrete nature of information exchange in communication network, Laplace domain analysis is not accurate enough for this kind...
Tang, Yuping; Wang, Daniel; Wilson, Grant; Gutermuth, Robert; Heyer, Mark
2018-01-01
We present the AzTEC/LMT survey of dust continuum at 1.1mm on the central ˜ 200pc (CMZ) of our Galaxy. A joint SED analysis of all existing dust continuum surveys on the CMZ is performed, from 160µm to 1.1mm. Our analysis follows a MCMC sampling strategy incorporating the knowledge of PSFs in different maps, which provides unprecedented spacial resolution on distributions of dust temperature, column density and emissivity index. The dense clumps in the CMZ typically show low dust temperature ( 20K), with no significant sign of buried star formation, and a weak evolution of higher emissivity index toward dense peak. A new model is proposed, allowing for varying dust temperature inside a cloud and self-shielding of dust emission, which leads to similar conclusions on dust temperature and grain properties. We further apply a hierarchical Bayesian analysis to infer the column density probability distribution function (N-PDF), while simultaneously removing the Galactic foreground and background emission. The N-PDF shows a steep power-law profile with α > 3, indicating that formation of dense structures are suppressed.
Noblet, Vincent; Heinrich, Christian; Heitz, Fabrice; Armspach, Jean-Paul
2005-05-01
This paper deals with topology preservation in three-dimensional (3-D) deformable image registration. This work is a nontrivial extension of, which addresses the case of two-dimensional (2-D) topology preserving mappings. In both cases, the deformation map is modeled as a hierarchical displacement field, decomposed on a multiresolution B-spline basis. Topology preservation is enforced by controlling the Jacobian of the transformation. Finding the optimal displacement parameters amounts to solving a constrained optimization problem: The residual energy between the target image and the deformed source image is minimized under constraints on the Jacobian. Unlike the 2-D case, in which simple linear constraints are derived, the 3-D B-spline-based deformable mapping yields a difficult (until now, unsolved) optimization problem. In this paper, we tackle the problem by resorting to interval analysis optimization techniques. Care is taken to keep the computational burden as low as possible. Results on multipatient 3-D MRI registration illustrate the ability of the method to preserve topology on the continuous image domain.
Pazó, Rosalva Grobério; Frauches, Diana de Oliveira; Molina, Maria del Carmen Bisi; Cade, Nágela Valadão
2014-09-01
The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between health services organization and hospitalization rates for ambulatory care sensitive conditions after adjusting for socioeconomic and demographic variables in municipalities (counties) in Espírito Santo State, Brazil. In an ecological study, data were collected from the Brazilian Unified National Health System (SUS) on the following variables: hospitalization for ambulatory care sensitive conditions, city size, demographic and socioeconomic characteristics, and health services organization. Rates were analyzed by Poisson regression with robust variance. Models were adjusted for the total population and age group. The explanatory variables were ordered hierarchically. Hospitalization rates for ambulatory care sensitive conditions were associated with illiteracy rate (RR: 1.08-1.17), proportion of beds in the SUS (RR: 1.09-1.12), urbanization (RR: 1.02-1.03), proportion of blacks (RR: 0.97-0.98), and health insurance coverage (RR: 0.97-0.98). Some determinants of hospitalization for ambulatory care sensitive conditions involve patterns of health services use and lie outside the scope of primary care.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Vitor Pires Lopes
2007-12-01
Full Text Available Este tutorial pretende apresentar, de modo didáctico, uma forma alternativa de análise de dados sobre os níveisde actividade física de crianças a partir da modelação hierárquica ou multinível. São mencionadas as diferentes etapas damodelação, os resultados são interpretados com base nos output´s do software utilizado – o HLM 6.02. Em cada etapa dopercurso são lançadas as hipóteses mais importantes em grau de complexidade crescente. A sua importância é referidaa partir dos resultados disponíveis. ABSTRACT This tutorial aims at a didactical presentation of an alternative approach to analyse physical activity data of childrenbased on hierarchical or multilevel modelling. We present the basic steps of the data analysis, interpreting all relevant outputfrom the chosen software – HLM 6.02. Each step is duly presented and explained, going from simple hypothesis to morecomplex ones. Their relevancy is presented in terms of the available results.
Gwinn, Daniel C; Middleton, Jen A; Beesley, Leah; Close, Paul; Quinton, Belinda; Storer, Tim; Davies, Peter M
2018-03-01
The degradation of streams caused by urbanization tends to follow predictable patterns; however, there is a growing appreciation for heterogeneity in stream response to urbanization due to the local geoclimatic context. Furthermore, there is building evidence that streams in mildly sloped, permeable landscapes respond uncharacteristically to urban stress calling for a more nuanced approach to restoration. We evaluated the relative influence of local-scale riparian characteristics and catchment-scale imperviousness on the macroinvertebrate assemblages of streams in the flat, permeable urban landscape of Perth, Western Australia. Using a hierarchical multi-taxa model, we predicted the outcomes of stylized stream restoration strategies to increase the riparian integrity at the local scale or decrease the influences of imperviousness at the catchment scale. In the urban streams of Perth, we show that local-scale riparian restoration can influence the structure of macroinvertebrate assemblages to a greater degree than managing the influences of catchment-scale imperviousness. We also observed an interaction between the effect of riparian integrity and imperviousness such that the effect of increased riparian integrity was enhanced at lower levels of catchment imperviousness. This study represents one of few conducted in flat, permeable landscapes and the first aimed at informing urban stream restoration in Perth, adding to the growing appreciation for heterogeneity of the Urban Stream Syndrome and its importance for urban stream restoration. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.
Oh, Sunghee; Song, Seongho
2017-01-01
In gene expression profile, data analysis pipeline is categorized into four levels, major downstream tasks, i.e., (1) identification of differential expression; (2) clustering co-expression patterns; (3) classification of subtypes of samples; and (4) detection of genetic regulatory networks, are performed posterior to preprocessing procedure such as normalization techniques. To be more specific, temporal dynamic gene expression data has its inherent feature, namely, two neighboring time points (previous and current state) are highly correlated with each other, compared to static expression data which samples are assumed as independent individuals. In this chapter, we demonstrate how HMMs and hierarchical Bayesian modeling methods capture the horizontal time dependency structures in time series expression profiles by focusing on the identification of differential expression. In addition, those differential expression genes and transcript variant isoforms over time detected in core prerequisite steps can be generally further applied in detection of genetic regulatory networks to comprehensively uncover dynamic repertoires in the aspects of system biology as the coupled framework.
Savitsky, Terrance D; Paddock, Susan M
2013-06-01
We develop a dependent Dirichlet process (DDP) model for repeated measures multiple membership (MM) data. This data structure arises in studies under which an intervention is delivered to each client through a sequence of elements which overlap with those of other clients on different occasions. Our interest concentrates on study designs for which the overlaps of sequences occur for clients who receive an intervention in a shared or grouped fashion whose memberships may change over multiple treatment events. Our motivating application focuses on evaluation of the effectiveness of a group therapy intervention with treatment delivered through a sequence of cognitive behavioral therapy session blocks, called modules. An open-enrollment protocol permits entry of clients at the beginning of any new module in a manner that may produce unique MM sequences across clients. We begin with a model that composes an addition of client and multiple membership module random effect terms, which are assumed independent. Our MM DDP model relaxes the assumption of conditionally independent client and module random effects by specifying a collection of random distributions for the client effect parameters that are indexed by the unique set of module attendances. We demonstrate how this construction facilitates examining heterogeneity in the relative effectiveness of group therapy modules over repeated measurement occasions.
Hierarchical Fault Diagnosis for a Hybrid System Based on a Multidomain Model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jiming Ma
2015-01-01
Full Text Available The diagnosis procedure is performed by integrating three steps: multidomain modeling, event identification, and failure event classification. Multidomain model can describe the normal and fault behaviors of hybrid systems efficiently and can meet the diagnosis requirements of hybrid systems. Then the multidomain model is used to simulate and obtain responses under different failure events; the responses are further utilized as a priori information when training the event identification library. Finally, a brushless DC motor is selected as the study case. The experimental result indicates that the proposed method could identify the known and unknown failure events of the studied system. In particular, for a system with less response information under a failure event, the accuracy of diagnosis seems to be higher. The presented method integrates the advantages of current quantitative and qualitative diagnostic procedures and can distinguish between failures caused by parametric and abrupt structure faults. Another advantage of our method is that it can remember unknown failure types and automatically extend the adaptive resonance theory neural network library, which is extremely useful for complex hybrid systems.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Marta Capiluppi
2013-08-01
Full Text Available We propose an extension of Hybrid I/O Automata (HIOAs to model agent systems and their implicit communication through perturbation of the environment, like localization of objects or radio signals diffusion and detection. The new object, called World Automaton (WA, is built in such a way to preserve as much as possible of the compositional properties of HIOAs and its underlying theory. From the formal point of view we enrich classical HIOAs with a set of world variables whose values are functions both of time and space. World variables are treated similarly to local variables of HIOAs, except in parallel composition, where the perturbations produced by world variables are summed. In such way, we obtain a structure able to model both agents and environments, thus inducing a hierarchy in the model and leading to the introduction of a new operator. Indeed this operator, called inplacement, is needed to represent the possibility of an object (WA of living inside another object/environment (WA.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
A Cole Burton
Full Text Available Protected areas (PAs are a cornerstone of global efforts to shield wildlife from anthropogenic impacts, yet their effectiveness at protecting wide-ranging species prone to human conflict--notably mammalian carnivores--is increasingly in question. An understanding of carnivore responses to human-induced and natural changes in and around PAs is critical not only to the conservation of threatened carnivore populations, but also to the effective protection of ecosystems in which they play key functional roles. However, an important challenge to assessing carnivore communities is the often infrequent and imperfect nature of survey detections. We applied a novel hierarchical multi-species occupancy model that accounted for detectability and spatial autocorrelation to data from 224 camera trap stations (sampled between October 2006 and January 2009 in order to test hypotheses about extrinsic influences on carnivore community dynamics in a West African protected area (Mole National Park, Ghana. We developed spatially explicit indices of illegal hunting activity, law enforcement patrol effort, prey biomass, and habitat productivity across the park, and used a Bayesian model selection framework to identify predictors of site occurrence for individual species and the entire carnivore community. Contrary to our expectation, hunting pressure and edge proximity did not have consistent, negative effects on occurrence across the nine carnivore species detected. Occurrence patterns for most species were positively associated with small prey biomass, and several species had either positive or negative associations with riverine forest (but not with other habitat descriptors. Influences of sampling design on carnivore detectability were also identified and addressed within our modeling framework (e.g., road and observer effects, and the multi-species approach facilitated inference on even the rarest carnivore species in the park. Our study provides insight for the
Burton, A Cole; Sam, Moses K; Balangtaa, Cletus; Brashares, Justin S
2012-01-01
Protected areas (PAs) are a cornerstone of global efforts to shield wildlife from anthropogenic impacts, yet their effectiveness at protecting wide-ranging species prone to human conflict--notably mammalian carnivores--is increasingly in question. An understanding of carnivore responses to human-induced and natural changes in and around PAs is critical not only to the conservation of threatened carnivore populations, but also to the effective protection of ecosystems in which they play key functional roles. However, an important challenge to assessing carnivore communities is the often infrequent and imperfect nature of survey detections. We applied a novel hierarchical multi-species occupancy model that accounted for detectability and spatial autocorrelation to data from 224 camera trap stations (sampled between October 2006 and January 2009) in order to test hypotheses about extrinsic influences on carnivore community dynamics in a West African protected area (Mole National Park, Ghana). We developed spatially explicit indices of illegal hunting activity, law enforcement patrol effort, prey biomass, and habitat productivity across the park, and used a Bayesian model selection framework to identify predictors of site occurrence for individual species and the entire carnivore community. Contrary to our expectation, hunting pressure and edge proximity did not have consistent, negative effects on occurrence across the nine carnivore species detected. Occurrence patterns for most species were positively associated with small prey biomass, and several species had either positive or negative associations with riverine forest (but not with other habitat descriptors). Influences of sampling design on carnivore detectability were also identified and addressed within our modeling framework (e.g., road and observer effects), and the multi-species approach facilitated inference on even the rarest carnivore species in the park. Our study provides insight for the conservation
Is prospective memory related to depression and anxiety? A hierarchical MPT modelling approach.
Arnold, Nina R; Bayen, Ute J; Böhm, Mateja F
2015-01-01
Prospective memory (PM) refers to remembering to perform an action in the future. One hundred and twenty-nine students completed a laboratory event-based PM task as well as depression and anxiety questionnaires. The data were analysed with the beta-MPT version of the multinomial processing tree model of event-based PM. Thereby, the prospective and retrospective components of PM were estimated for each participant and were then correlated with depression and anxiety. State anxiety was negatively correlated with the prospective component of PM. Neither depression nor trait anxiety were related to either component of PM.
Hierarchical Modeling of Mastic Asphalt in Layered Road Structures Based on the Mori-Tanaka Method
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Richard Valenta
2012-01-01
Full Text Available We present an application of the Mori-Tanaka micromechanical model for a description of the highly nonlinear behavior of asphalt mixtures. This method is expected to replace an expensive finite element-based fully-coupled multi-scale analysis while still providing useful information about local fields on the meso-scale that are not predictable by strictly macroscopic simulations. Drawing on our recent results from extensive experimental and also numerical investigations this paper concentrates on principal limitations of the Mori-Tanaka method, typical of all two-point averaging schemes, when appliedto material systems prone to evolving highly localized deformation patterns such as a network of shear bands. The inability of the Mori-Tanaka method to properly capture the correct stress transfer between phases with increasing compliance of the matrix phase is remedied here by introducing a damage like parameter into the local constitutive equation of reinforcements (stones to control an amount of stress taken by this phase. A deficiency of the Mori-Tanaka method in the prediction of creep response is also mentioned particularly in the light of large scale simulations. A comparison with the application of macroscopic homogenized constitutive model for an asphalt mixture is also presented.
Searching for Genotype-Phenotype Structure: Using Hierarchical Log-Linear Models in Crohn Disease
Chapman, Juliet M.; Onnie, Clive M.; Prescott, Natalie J.; Fisher, Sheila A.; Mansfield, John C.; Mathew, Christopher G.; Lewis, Cathryn M.; Verzilli, Claudio J.; Whittaker, John C.
2009-01-01
There has been considerable recent success in the detection of gene-disease associations. We consider here the development of tools that facilitate the more detailed characterization of the effect of a genetic variant on disease. We replace the simplistic classification of individuals according to a single binary disease indicator with classification according to a number of subphenotypes. This more accurately reflects the underlying biological complexity of the disease process, but it poses additional analytical difficulties. Notably, the subphenotypes that make up a particular disease are typically highly associated, and it becomes difficult to distinguish which genes might be causing which subphenotypes. Such problems arise in many complex diseases. Here, we concentrate on an application to Crohn disease (CD). We consider this problem as one of model selection based upon log-linear models, fitted in a Bayesian framework via reversible-jump Metropolis-Hastings approach. We evaluate the performance of our suggested approach with a simple simulation study and then apply the method to a real data example in CD, revealing a sparse disease structure. Most notably, the associated NOD2.908G→R mutation appears to be directly related to more severe disease behaviors, whereas the other two associated NOD2 variants, 1007L→FS and 702R→W, are more generally related to disease in the small bowel (ileum and jejenum). The ATG16L1.300T→A variant appears to be directly associated with only disease of the small bowel. PMID:19185283
Efendiev, Yalchin R.
2015-06-05
In this paper, we develop a multiscale finite element method for solving flows in fractured media. Our approach is based on generalized multiscale finite element method (GMsFEM), where we represent the fracture effects on a coarse grid via multiscale basis functions. These multiscale basis functions are constructed in the offline stage via local spectral problems following GMsFEM. To represent the fractures on the fine grid, we consider two approaches (1) discrete fracture model (DFM) (2) embedded fracture model (EFM) and their combination. In DFM, the fractures are resolved via the fine grid, while in EFM the fracture and the fine grid block interaction is represented as a source term. In the proposed multiscale method, additional multiscale basis functions are used to represent the long fractures, while short-size fractures are collectively represented by a single basis functions. The procedure is automatically done via local spectral problems. In this regard, our approach shares common concepts with several approaches proposed in the literature as we discuss. We would like to emphasize that our goal is not to compare DFM with EFM, but rather to develop GMsFEM framework which uses these (DFM or EFM) fine-grid discretization techniques. Numerical results are presented, where we demonstrate how one can adaptively add basis functions in the regions of interest based on error indicators. We also discuss the use of randomized snapshots (Calo et al. Randomized oversampling for generalized multiscale finite element methods, 2014), which reduces the offline computational cost.
Williams, Claire; Lewsey, James D; Mackay, Daniel F; Briggs, Andrew H
2017-05-01
Modeling of clinical-effectiveness in a cost-effectiveness analysis typically involves some form of partitioned survival or Markov decision-analytic modeling. The health states progression-free, progression and death and the transitions between them are frequently of interest. With partitioned survival, progression is not modeled directly as a state; instead, time in that state is derived from the difference in area between the overall survival and the progression-free survival curves. With Markov decision-analytic modeling, a priori assumptions are often made with regard to the transitions rather than using the individual patient data directly to model them. This article compares a multi-state modeling survival regression approach to these two common methods. As a case study, we use a trial comparing rituximab in combination with fludarabine and cyclophosphamide v. fludarabine and cyclophosphamide alone for the first-line treatment of chronic lymphocytic leukemia. We calculated mean Life Years and QALYs that involved extrapolation of survival outcomes in the trial. We adapted an existing multi-state modeling approach to incorporate parametric distributions for transition hazards, to allow extrapolation. The comparison showed that, due to the different assumptions used in the different approaches, a discrepancy in results was evident. The partitioned survival and Markov decision-analytic modeling deemed the treatment cost-effective with ICERs of just over £16,000 and £13,000, respectively. However, the results with the multi-state modeling were less conclusive, with an ICER of just over £29,000. This work has illustrated that it is imperative to check whether assumptions are realistic, as different model choices can influence clinical and cost-effectiveness results.
Shoults-Wilson, W. A.; Peterson, J.T.; Unrine, J.M.; Rickard, J.; Black, M.C.
2009-01-01
In the present study, specimens of the invasive clam, Corbicula fluminea, were collected above and below possible sources of potentially toxic trace elements (As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Hg, Pb, and Zn) in the Altamaha River system (Georgia, USA). Bioaccumulation of these elements was quantified, along with environmental (water and sediment) concentrations. Hierarchical linear models were used to account for variability in tissue concentrations related to environmental (site water chemistry and sediment characteristics) and individual (growth metrics) variables while identifying the strongest relations between these variables and trace element accumulation. The present study found significantly elevated concentrations of Cd, Cu, and Hg downstream of the outfall of kaolin-processing facilities, Zn downstream of a tire cording facility, and Cr downstream of both a nuclear power plant and a paper pulp mill. Models of the present study indicated that variation in trace element accumulation was linked to distance upstream from the estuary, dissolved oxygen, percentage of silt and clay in the sediment, elemental concentrations in sediment, shell length, and bivalve condition index. By explicitly modeling environmental variability, the Hierarchical linear modeling procedure allowed the identification of sites showing increased accumulation of trace elements that may have been caused by human activity. Hierarchical linear modeling is a useful tool for accounting for environmental and individual sources of variation in bioaccumulation studies. ?? 2009 SETAC.
Shoults-Wilson, W Aaron; Peterson, James T; Unrine, Jason M; Rickard, James; Black, Marsha C
2009-10-01
In the present study, specimens of the invasive clam, Corbicula fluminea, were collected above and below possible sources of potentially toxic trace elements (As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Hg, Pb, and Zn) in the Altamaha River system (Georgia, U.S.A.). Bioaccumulation of these elements was quantified, along with environmental (water and sediment) concentrations. Hierarchical linear models were used to account for variability in tissue concentrations related to environmental (site water chemistry and sediment characteristics) and individual (growth metrics) variables while identifying the strongest relations between these variables and trace element accumulation. The present study found significantly elevated concentrations of Cd, Cu, and Hg downstream of the outfall of kaolin-processing facilities, Zn downstream of a tire cording facility, and Cr downstream of both a nuclear power plant and a paper pulp mill. Models of the present study indicated that variation in trace element accumulation was linked to distance upstream from the estuary, dissolved oxygen, percentage of silt and clay in the sediment, elemental concentrations in sediment, shell length, and bivalve condition index. By explicitly modeling environmental variability, the Hierarchical linear modeling procedure allowed the identification of sites showing increased accumulation of trace elements that may have been caused by human activity. Hierarchical linear modeling is a useful tool for accounting for environmental and individual sources of variation in bioaccumulation studies.
Hierarchical winner-take-all particle swarm optimization social network for neural model fitting.
Coventry, Brandon S; Parthasarathy, Aravindakshan; Sommer, Alexandra L; Bartlett, Edward L
2017-02-01
Particle swarm optimization (PSO) has gained widespread use as a general mathematical programming paradigm and seen use in a wide variety of optimization and machine learning problems. In this work, we introduce a new variant on the PSO social network and apply this method to the inverse problem of input parameter selection from recorded auditory neuron tuning curves. The topology of a PSO social network is a major contributor to optimization success. Here we propose a new social network which draws influence from winner-take-all coding found in visual cortical neurons. We show that the winner-take-all network performs exceptionally well on optimization problems with greater than 5 dimensions and runs at a lower iteration count as compared to other PSO topologies. Finally we show that this variant of PSO is able to recreate auditory frequency tuning curves and modulation transfer functions, making it a potentially useful tool for computational neuroscience models.
A full Bayesian hierarchical mixture model for the variance of gene differential expression
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Walls Rebecca E
2007-04-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background In many laboratory-based high throughput microarray experiments, there are very few replicates of gene expression levels. Thus, estimates of gene variances are inaccurate. Visual inspection of graphical summaries of these data usually reveals that heteroscedasticity is present, and the standard approach to address this is to take a log2 transformation. In such circumstances, it is then common to assume that gene variability is constant when an analysis of these data is undertaken. However, this is perhaps too stringent an assumption. More careful inspection reveals that the simple log2 transformation does not remove the problem of heteroscedasticity. An alternative strategy is to assume independent gene-specific variances; although again this is problematic as variance estimates based on few replications are highly unstable. More meaningful and reliable comparisons of gene expression might be achieved, for different conditions or different tissue samples, where the test statistics are based on accurate estimates of gene variability; a crucial step in the identification of differentially expressed genes. Results We propose a Bayesian mixture model, which classifies genes according to similarity in their variance. The result is that genes in the same latent class share the similar variance, estimated from a larger number of replicates than purely those per gene, i.e. the total of all replicates of all genes in the same latent class. An example dataset, consisting of 9216 genes with four replicates per condition, resulted in four latent classes based on their similarity of the variance. Conclusion The mixture variance model provides a realistic and flexible estimate for the variance of gene expression data under limited replicates. We believe that in using the latent class variances, estimated from a larger number of genes in each derived latent group, the p-values obtained are more robust than either using a constant gene or
Prognostic Model for Survival in Patients With Early Stage Cervical Cancer
Biewenga, Petra; van der Velden, Jacobus; Mol, Ben Willem J.; Stalpers, Lukas J. A.; Schilthuis, Marten S.; van der Steeg, Jan Willem; Burger, Matthé P. M.; Buist, Marrije R.
2011-01-01
BACKGROUND: In the management of early stage cervical cancer, knowledge about the prognosis is critical. Although many factors have an impact on survival, their relative importance remains controversial. This study aims to develop a prognostic model for survival in early stage cervical cancer
Advanced Online Survival Analysis Tool for Predictive Modelling in Clinical Data Science.
Montes-Torres, Julio; Subirats, José Luis; Ribelles, Nuria; Urda, Daniel; Franco, Leonardo; Alba, Emilio; Jerez, José Manuel
2016-01-01
One of the prevailing applications of machine learning is the use of predictive modelling in clinical survival analysis. In this work, we present our view of the current situation of computer tools for survival analysis, stressing the need of transferring the latest results in the field of machine learning to biomedical researchers. We propose a web based software for survival analysis called OSA (Online Survival Analysis), which has been developed as an open access and user friendly option to obtain discrete time, predictive survival models at individual level using machine learning techniques, and to perform standard survival analysis. OSA employs an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) based method to produce the predictive survival models. Additionally, the software can easily generate survival and hazard curves with multiple options to personalise the plots, obtain contingency tables from the uploaded data to perform different tests, and fit a Cox regression model from a number of predictor variables. In the Materials and Methods section, we depict the general architecture of the application and introduce the mathematical background of each of the implemented methods. The study concludes with examples of use showing the results obtained with public datasets.
Mechanism of Self-regulation in a Simple Model of Hierarchically Organized Market
Gafiychuk, V V; Klimontovich, Yu L; Klimontovich, Yu.L.
1999-01-01
We propose a model for a market which structure is of the tree form. Each branch of the tree is composed by identical firms, its root (the branch of the first level) is formed by the firms producing raw material, and the branches of the last level are the retail outlets. The branching points (tree nodes) are micromarkets for firms forming branches connected with a given node. The prices and the production rate are controlled by the ballance in supply and demand, the competition is assumed to be perfect. We show that such a market functions perfectly: the prices are specified by the production expense only, whereas demand determines the production rate. We construct an efficiency functional which extremal gives the governing equations for the market. It turns out that this ideal market is degenerated with respect to its structure. It is shown, that such market functions ideally: the prices are determined by the costs on production of the goods, and the level of production of the goods of any kind defined only ...
Hierarchical heuristic search using a Gaussian mixture model for UAV coverage planning.
Lin, Lanny; Goodrich, Michael A
2014-12-01
During unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) search missions, efficient use of UAV flight time requires flight paths that maximize the probability of finding the desired subject. The probability of detecting the desired subject based on UAV sensor information can vary in different search areas due to environment elements like varying vegetation density or lighting conditions, making it likely that the UAV can only partially detect the subject. This adds another dimension of complexity to the already difficult (NP-Hard) problem of finding an optimal search path. We present a new class of algorithms that account for partial detection in the form of a task difficulty map and produce paths that approximate the payoff of optimal solutions. The algorithms use the mode goodness ratio heuristic that uses a Gaussian mixture model to prioritize search subregions. The algorithms search for effective paths through the parameter space at different levels of resolution. We compare the performance of the new algorithms against two published algorithms (Bourgault's algorithm and LHC-GW-CONV algorithm) in simulated searches with three real search and rescue scenarios, and show that the new algorithms outperform existing algorithms significantly and can yield efficient paths that yield payoffs near the optimal.
Bayesian hierarchical models for network meta-analysis incorporating nonignorable missingness.
Zhang, Jing; Chu, Haitao; Hong, Hwanhee; Virnig, Beth A; Carlin, Bradley P
2017-10-01
Network meta-analysis expands the scope of a conventional pairwise meta-analysis to simultaneously compare multiple treatments, synthesizing both direct and indirect information and thus strengthening inference. Since most of trials only compare two treatments, a typical data set in a network meta-analysis managed as a trial-by-treatment matrix is extremely sparse, like an incomplete block structure with significant missing data. Zhang et al. proposed an arm-based method accounting for correlations among different treatments within the same trial and assuming that absent arms are missing at random. However, in randomized controlled trials, nonignorable missingness or missingness not at random may occur due to deliberate choices of treatments at the design stage. In addition, those undertaking a network meta-analysis may selectively choose treatments to include in the analysis, which may also lead to missingness not at random. In this paper, we extend our previous work to incorporate missingness not at random using selection models. The proposed method is then applied to two network meta-analyses and evaluated through extensive simulation studies. We also provide comprehensive comparisons of a commonly used contrast-based method and the arm-based method via simulations in a technical appendix under missing completely at random and missing at random.
Wahl, E. R.
2008-12-01
as much information as the multi-taxonomic MAT in well-selected regions, the ratio inverse model is used as the starting point for developing a temperature-pollen forward model. Such a forward model can be directly incorporated into a Bayesian hierarchical model (BHM) framework: the reason for seeking a taxonomically simplified pollen model is itself driven by computational considerations within the BHM. The BHM framework thus allows pollen- derived climate information to contribute multi-decadal to centennial information into a simultaneous reconstruction framework that also incorporates annually-resolved climate information from tree ring sources and centennial to multi-centennial information from borehole reconstructions. In the forward model, the pine and oak pollen counts are treated as binomial random variables with expected values (p) and (1-p), conditional on the calibration temperature values and the total counts (n) used to determine the ratios. Model parameters and (p) values have been estimated using a binomial logistic form of the generalized linear model. Comparison of the estimated conditional expected (p) values with the associated calibration ratio/temperature relationships shows good performance for the SW N American test case, with little (but non- 0) bias and good overall tracking (R2 = 0.79). (4) The results from (3) indicate that appropriate forward models can be developed for a suite of sites in North America with temporally dense, well-dated fossil pollen records over the past 2ka, and then incorporated into the BHM. Modeling results for the suite of sites will be presented.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Amanda R Bolbecker
2016-01-01
Full Text Available Evidence of cerebellar dysfunction in schizophrenia has mounted over the past several decades, emerging from neuroimaging, neuropathological, and behavioral studies. Consistent with these findings, cerebellar-dependent delay eyeblink conditioning (dEBC deficits have been identified in schizophrenia. While repeated measures analysis of variance (ANOVA is traditionally used to analyze dEBC data, hierarchical linear modeling (HLM more reliably describes change over time by accounting for the dependence in repeated measures data. This analysis approach is well suited to dEBC data analysis because it has less restrictive assumptions and allows unequal variances. The current study examined dEBC measured with electromyography in a single-cue tone paradigm in an age-matched sample of schizophrenia participants and healthy controls (N=56 per group using HLM. Subjects participated in 90 trials (10 blocks of dEBC, during which a 400 ms tone co-terminated with a 50 ms air puff delivered to the left eye. Each block also contained 1 tone-alone trial. The resulting block averages of dEBC data were fitted to a 3-parameter logistic model in HLM, revealing significant differences between schizophrenia and control groups on asymptote and inflection point, but not slope. These findings suggest that while the learning rate is not significantly different compared to controls, associative learning begins to level off later and a lower ultimate level of associative learning is achieved in schizophrenia. Given the large sample size in the present study, HLM may provide a more nuanced and definitive analysis of differences between schizophrenia and controls on dEBC.