The value of urban tree cover: A hedonic property price model in Ramsey and Dakota Counties, Minnesota, USA

Science.gov (United States)

Heather Sander; Stephen Polasky; Robert. Haight

2010-01-01

Urban tree cover benefits communities. These benefits' economic values, however, are poorly recognized and often ignored by landowners and planners. We use hedonic property price modeling to estimate urban tree cover's value in Dakota and Ramsey Counties, MN, USA, predicting housing value as a function of structural, neighborhood, and environmental variables...

Spatial Hedonic Pricing Models for Testing the Adequacy of Acoustic Areas in Madrid, Spain

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José-María Montero

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Road traffic noise is one of the main concerns of large cities. Most of them have classified their territory in acoustic areas and have constructed strategic noise maps. From both sources we have elaborated seven types of acoustic neighbourhoods according to both their noise gap in regard to the legal standard and the percentage of population exposed to noise. A spatial Durbin model has been selected as the strategy that best models the impact of noise on housing prices. However, results for Madrid do not confirm the hedonic theory and indicate, as one of the possibilities, that the official acoustic areas in Madrid could be incorrectly designed.

The value of building safety: A hedonic price approach

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Yung Yau

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Theoretical and empirical studies on how building performance is valued by the property market abound in the literature. Some of them investigate changes in property prices after building renovation, but little has been done on pricing the safety performance of buildings. This article presents a study that explores whether residential properties in safer buildings command higher market values in Hong Kong. Hong Kong is a good laboratory for this study because building failures can pose a serious threat in such a densely populated high-rise environment. The study measures the safety performance of a building by the weighted number of unauthorised building works (UBWs on the external walls of the buildings. By their nature, UBWs are building works that are constructed without prior approval and consent from the government. A hedonic price model is developed to assess the market value of building safety. For the model estimation, apart from the property transaction data, the number of unauthorised appendages (i.e., UBWs attached to the building facades in each building studied is obtained through a building survey. Based on the analysis results, several hypotheses built upon the theories of self-protection and self-insurance are tested.

Accounting for heterogeneity of public lands in hedonic property models

Science.gov (United States)

Charlotte Ham; Patricia A. Champ; John B. Loomis; Robin M. Reich

2012-01-01

Open space lands, national forests in particular, are usually treated as homogeneous entities in hedonic price studies. Failure to account for the heterogeneous nature of public open spaces may result in inappropriate inferences about the benefits of proximate location to such lands. In this study the hedonic price method is used to estimate the marginal values for...

Determination of Japanese buyer valuation of metallurgical coal characteristics by hedonic modeling

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Koerner, R.J. [Griffith University, Brisbane, Qld. (Australia). Graduate School of Management

2001-09-01

Considerable efforts have been devoted by econometric researchers to understanding Japanese steel mill (JSM) metallurgical coal valuation policies, and whether such policies disadvantage coal exporters. Much of this research has employed the hedonic regression modeling technique of Rosen and examines the significance of coal quality in establishing market price. This article discusses shortcomings in some such modeling studies, and presents results of additional hedonic modeling to buttress findings of previous work suggesting that cross-cultural bargaining factors rather than coal quality explain lower prices for Australian coals in Japanese market settlements. Policy changes that might be effective in ameliorating bilateral market distortions arising from oligopsony characteristics exhibited in JSM contract settlements are then explored. 29 refs., 2 figs., 2 tabs.

A GIS-based hedonic price model for agricultural land

Science.gov (United States)

Demetriou, Demetris

2015-06-01

Land consolidation is a very effective land management planning approach that aims towards rural/agricultural sustainable development. Land reallocation which involves land tenure restructuring is the most important, complex and time consuming component of land consolidation. Land reallocation relies on land valuation since its fundamental principle provides that after consolidation, each landowner shall be granted a property of an aggregate value that is approximately the same as the value of the property owned prior to consolidation. Therefore, land value is the crucial factor for the land reallocation process and hence for the success and acceptance of the final land consolidation plan. Land valuation is a process of assigning values to all parcels (and its contents) and it is usually carried out by an ad-hoc committee. However, the process faces some problems such as it is time consuming hence costly, outcomes may present inconsistency since it is carried out manually and empirically without employing systematic analytical tools and in particular spatial analysis tools and techniques such as statistical/mathematical. A solution to these problems can be the employment of mass appraisal land valuation methods using automated valuation models (AVM) based on international standards. In this context, this paper presents a spatial based linear hedonic price model which has been developed and tested in a case study land consolidation area in Cyprus. Results showed that the AVM is capable to produce acceptable in terms of accuracy and reliability land values and to reduce time hence cost required by around 80%.

Estimation of Gasoline Price Elasticities of Demand for Automobile Fuel Efficiency in Korea: A Hedonic Approach

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee, Sung Tae [Sungkyunkwan University, Seoul (Korea); Lee, Myunghun [Keimyung University, Taegu (Korea)

2001-03-01

This paper estimates the gasoline price elasticities of demand for automobile fuel efficiency in Korea to examine indirectly whether the government policy of raising fuel prices is effective in inducing less consumption of fuel, relying on a hedonic technique developed by Atkinson and Halvorsen (1984). One of the advantages of this technique is that the data for a single year, without involving variation in the price of gasoline, is sufficient in implementing this study. Moreover, this technique enables us to circumvent the multicollinearity problem, which had reduced reliability of the results in previous hedonic studies. The estimated elasticities of demand for fuel efficiency with respect to the price of gasoline, on average, is 0.42. (author). 30 refs., 3 tabs.

Willingness to pay and price elasticities of demand for energy-efficient appliances: Combining the hedonic approach and demand systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Galarraga, Ibon, E-mail: ibon.galarraga@bc3research.org; Gonzalez-Eguino, Mikel, E-mail: mikel.gonzalez@bc3research.org; Markandya, Anil, E-mail: anil.markandya@bc3research.org

2011-12-15

This article proposes a combined approach for estimating willingness to pay for the attributes represented by energy efficiency labels and providing reliable price elasticities of demand (own and cross) for close substitutes (e.g. those with low energy efficiency and those with higher energy efficiency). This is done by using the results of the hedonic approach together with the Quantity Based Demand System (QBDS) model. The elasticity results obtained with the latter are then compared with those simulated using the Linear Almost Ideal Demand System (LA/AIDS). The methodology is applied to the dishwasher market in Spain: it is found that 15.6% of the final price is actually paid for the energy efficiency attribute. This accounts for about Euro 80 of the average market price. The elasticity results confirm that energy efficient appliances are more price elastic than regular ones. - Highlights: > The article shows a combined approach for estimating willingness to pay for energy efficiency labels and price elasticities. > The results of the hedonic approach is used together with the Quantity Based Demand System (QBDS) model. > The elasticity results are compared with those simulated using the Linear Almost Ideal Demand System (LA/AIDS). > The methodology is applied to the dishwasher market in Spain.

Assessing the Impact of Urban Improvement on Housing Values: A Hedonic Pricing and Multi-Attribute Analysis Model for the Historic Centre of Venice

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Paolo Rosato

2017-11-01

Full Text Available The Hedonic Pricing Method is one of the principal assessment methods for evaluating services and resources not normally exchanged on the market. However, the method is often unable to account for the great variety of qualities in an urban context and faces scarce and heterogeneous market data. This paper presents a model for the valuation of benefits generated by environmental and urban improvement investments adopting a mixed hedonic-multi-attribute procedure for modeling a value function of urban real estate values. The peculiarity of the model is that the independent variables are aggregated indicators, which synthetize more detailed characteristics. Using the expertise of real estate agents, all relevant variables influencing real estate values were weighted and synthetized in a set of cardinal indicators. Next, market prices were used to calibrate a hedonic function that transforms the cardinal indicators into real estate values. The valuation model was integrated into a GIS for mapping the housing value, and its variation induced by urban investment. The proposed model pointed out plausible and robust results, in particular, the possibility to use any available information, such as location, position, technical and economic characteristics of buildings, and organize it in a flexible and transparent way, and to keep evident the role of each characteristic through the hierarchical structure of the model. The model was applied to the real estate market of Venice to test the effects of the MOSE project (Electromechanical Experimental Module for the protection of Venice from high tides. The results of the application showed a relevant increase in real estate values in the center of Venice, especially related to property in ground floor units, of about 1.4 billion €.

Estimation of Hedonic Single-Family House Price Function Considering Neighborhood Effect Variables

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Chihiro Shimizu

2014-05-01

Full Text Available In the formulation of hedonic models, in addition to locational factors and building structures which affect the house prices, the generation of the omitted variable bias is thought to occur in cases when local environmental variables and the individual characteristics of house buyers are not taken into consideration. However, since it is difficult to obtain local environmental information in a small neighborhood unit and to observe individual characteristics of house buyers, these variables have not been sufficiently considered in previous studies. We demonstrated that non-negligible levels of omitted variable bias are generated if these variables are not considered.

An economic evaluation of nuclear power plant externalities, using the hedonic price approach

OpenAIRE

Kato, Hirotaka; Ueta, Kazuhiro

2012-01-01

This study evaluates the external costs of nuclear power plants in Japan. Using the hedonic price approach, we analyze changes in land price in Fukui Prefecture before and after the Fukushima nuclear accident. The land in question is located far from the Fukushima accident area and was not directly impacted by the accident itself. The results of this study reveal that the area affected by the nuclear power plant's negative externalities expanded following the accident, and that the intensity ...

Repeat Assessed Values Model for Housing Price Index

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Carini Manuela

2017-12-01

Full Text Available This study proposes an innovative methodology, named Repeat Appraised Price Model (RAV, useful for determining the price index numbers for real estate markets and the corresponding index numbers of hedonic prices of main real estate characteristics in the case of a lack of data. The methodological approach proposed in this paper aims to appraise the time series of price index numbers. It integrates the principles of the method of repeat sales with the peculiarities of the Hedonic Price Method, overcoming the problem of an almost total absence of repeat sales for the same property in a given time range; on the other hand, the technique aims to overcome the limitation of the repeat sales technique concerning the inability to take into account the characteristics of individual properties.

Valuing labelling attributes with hedonic price analysis:

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Steiner, Bodo

2004-01-01

The market share of New World wines sold in many European countries has increased dramatically over the past decade. More aggressive marketing, together with a more distinct and recognizable labeling scheme, are often regarded as the keys to the marketing success of these new wines. This article...... employs hedonic price analysis to identify the values that marketers and consumers place on the information carried by the label of Australian wines in the British wine retail market. Although many grape varieties are given a highly distinct valuation by market participants, our results also suggest...... that consumers consider regions jointly with grape varieties as proxies for brands. This contrasts with the general observation that grape varietal labeling is the distinctive feature of New World wines. Marketing implications are examined by considering the revenue impact of changes in labeling at the retail...

Impacts of Street-Visible Greenery on Housing Prices: Evidence from a Hedonic Price Model and a Massive Street View Image Dataset in Beijing

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Yonglin Zhang

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Street greenery is a component of urban green infrastructure. By forming foundational green corridors in urban ecological systems, street greenery provides vital ecological, social, and cultural functions, and benefits the wellbeing of citizens. However, because of the difficulty of quantifying people’s visual perceptions, the impact of street-visible greenery on housing prices has not been fully studied. Using Beijing, which has a mature real estate market, as an example, this study evaluated 22,331 transactions in 2014 in 2370 private housing estates. We selected 25 variables that were classified into three categories—location, housing, and neighbourhood characteristics—and introduced an index called the horizontal green view index (HGVI into a hedonic pricing model to measure the value of the visual perception of street greenery in neighbouring residential developments. The results show that (1 Beijing’s homebuyers would like to reside in residential units with a higher HGVI; (2 Beijing’s homebuyers favour larger lakes; and (3 Beijing’s housing prices were impacted by the spatial development patterns of the city centre and multiple business centres. We used computer vision to quantify the street-visible greenery and estimated the economic benefits that the neighbouring visible greenery would have on residential developments in Beijing. This study provides a scientific basis and reference for policy makers and city planners in road greening, and a tool for formulating street greening policy, studying housing price characteristics, and evaluating real estate values.

Capturing the value of green space in urban parks in a sustainable urban planning and design context: pros and cons of hedonic pricing

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Gustav Engström

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Sixty percent of the land that will be urban in 2030 has yet to be built. Contemporary urban development is unsustainable and focus is on building dense, often at the expense of urban green space (UGS, at the same time as our understanding of links between green spaces and human well-being, especially health, is increasing. There is a need to better understand and analyze human well-being qualities of UGS in a planning context. Our aim is to increase this understanding by analyzing the pros and cons of hedonic pricing in this context. Hedonic pricing is commonly used for analyzing benefits associated with UGS to make them more visible and to provide support for urban planning. However, the validity of this approach has been questioned. To increase the accuracy of a hedonic pricing method we incorporate state-of-the-art methods to assess the value of public parks in a case study. Although our results suggest that urban parks indeed have a positive effect on property value and that this effect tends to increase with reduced distance to the parks, the hedonic pricing information is not enough to make well-advised decisions in a sustainable planning context. We thus suggest (1 including and quantifying additional health benefit dimensions and (2 replacing straight-line measures with an axial line step distance measure, to better capture accessibility. To better capture the range of benefits generated by urban parks, irrespective of whether these benefits are enjoyed in direct relation to the park or not, we suggest complementing hedonic pricing via (3 applying an ecosystem service lens, thus also improving the accuracy of trade-off and synergy analysis Also, a sustainable planning approach will benefit from (4 taking the surrounding land use configuration into account for optimizing the different values of urban parks.

Estimating the economic value of cultural ecosystem services in an urbanizing area using hedonic pricing

Science.gov (United States)

Heather A. Sander; Robert G. Haight

2012-01-01

A need exists to increase both knowledge and recognition of the values associated with ecosystem services and amenities. This article explores the use of hedonic pricing as a tool for eliciting these values. We take a case study approach, valuing several services provided by ecosystems, namely aesthetic quality (views), access to outdoor recreation, and the benefits...

HEDONIC DEMAND ANALYSIS FOR BEEF IN BENIN METROPOLIS

African Journals Online (AJOL)

BIUAGRIC2

2013-02-11

Feb 11, 2013 ... implicit demand for beef within the framework of a hedonic analysis, and the implicit or shadow price of beef were examined. Primary data ... results of the Hedonic analysis showed that, with an average unit price of N836.57 for beef, a consumer is strongly willing to pay ... method and strategies. Lancaster ...

An alternative to the standard spatial econometric approaches in hedonic house price models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Veie, Kathrine Lausted; Panduro, Toke Emil

Hedonic models are subject to spatially correlated errors which are a symptom of omitted spatial variables, mis-specification or mismeasurement. Methods have been developed to address this problem through the use of spatial econometrics or spatial fixed effects. However, often spatial correlation is...... varying characteristics markedly. This suggests that omitted variable bias may remain an important problem. We advocate for an increased use of sensitivity analysis to determine robustness of estimates to different models of the (omitted) spatial processes....

Estimating demand schedules in hedonic analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Panduro, Toke Emil; Jensen, Cathrine Ulla; Lundhede, Thomas

The hedonic pricing method has been used extensively to obtain implicit prices for availability of urban green space, but few hedonic studies have obtained households’ preference parameters. We estimate willingness to pay functions for park availability in Copenhagen using an approach that places...... identifying restrictions on the utility function. We do this for two different measures of park availability. We apply our results to a policy scenario and show how estimates of aggregate welfare changes are highly sensitive to the measure of park availability applied. Thus, the approach in this study applies...... an alternative path for estimation of demand schedules for public goods using hedonic data. The findings also stress the importance of paying attention to how public goods are defined when undertaking welfare economic policy analyses....

Demand Estimation with Heterogeneous Consumers and Unobserved Product Characteristics: A Hedonic Approach

Science.gov (United States)

Bajari, Patrick; Benkard, C. Lanier

2005-01-01

We reconsider the identification and estimation of Gorman-Lancaster-style hedonic models of demand for differentiated products in the spirit of Sherwin Rosen. We generalize Rosen's first stage to account for product characteristics that are not observed and to allow the hedonic pricing function to have a general nonseparable form. We take an…

Evaluation of the influences of nuclear accident by hedonic approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Takai, Toru

2005-01-01

The purpose of this sturdy is to examine the influences on residential land prices of criticality accident in Tokai-mura. To clarify the influences, three types of hedonic model are used to estimate land prices around JCO before and after the accident. The result of estimation indicates that land prices decreased according to proximity to JCO after the accident. (author)

Un modelo hedónico de precios en línea de automóviles usados en Argentina || A Hedonic Model of Online Prices of Used Cars in Argentina

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Ramírez Muñoz de Toro, Gonzalo R.

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Los modelos de precios hedónicos permiten detectar relaciones latentes entre el precio de un bien y diversas características del mismo. Utilizamos datos de sitios en línea de Argentina sobre autos usados para ajustar un modelo amplio. Encontramos como significativas diversas características de prestaciones y propias del tipo de vehículo y su equipamiento. Se observan diferencias regionales de precios así como una persistente asociación de los vehículos de producción nacional con precios bajos. || Hedonic pricing models detect latent relationships between the price of a good and its different features. We have used data from online sites from Argentina on used cars to fit a broad model. Various features are significant such as performance, characteristics and equipment according to each vehicle type. Both regional differences in prices and a persistent association of domestically produced vehicles with low prices are observed.

A hedonic price analysis of the outfitter market for trout fishing in the Rocky Mountain West

Science.gov (United States)

Heidi M. Pitts; Jennifer A. Thacher; Patricia A. Champ; Robert P. Berrens

2012-01-01

Trout is the most popular sport fish in Montana, Wyoming, Colorado, and New Mexico where fishing outfitters bring revenues to many rural economies. This article uses the hedonic pricing method on a monopolistically competitive outfitter market in those four states to examine angler values for trout fishing characteristics. A total of 1,685 fishing trip observations...

Extra-virgin olive oil: are consumers provided with the sensory quality they want? A hedonic price model with sensory attributes.

Science.gov (United States)

Cavallo, Carla; Caracciolo, Francesco; Cicia, Gianni; Del Giudice, Teresa

2018-03-01

Over the years, niche-differentiation strategies and food policies have pushed quality standards of European extra-virgin olive oil towards a product that has a sensory profile consisting of fruity, bitter and pungent notes, with such oils having excellent healthy features. However, it is unclear whether typical consumers are ready for a richer and more complex sensory profile than the neutral one historically found on the market. This potential discrepancy is investigated in the present study aiiming to determine whether current demand is able to appreciate this path of quality enhancement. Implicit prices for each and every attribute of extra-virgin olive oil with a focus on sensory characteristics were investigated using a hedonic price model. Although confirming the importance of origin and terroir for extra-virgin olive oil, the results of the present study strongly confirm the discrepancy between what is currently valued on the market and what novel supply trends are trying to achieve in terms of the sensory properties of such products. Increasing consumer awareness about the direct link between the health quality of oils and their sensory profile appears to be necessary to make quality enhancement programs more successful on the market and hence more effective for companies. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry.

DETERMINANT OF HOUSING RENTS IN URBAN ALBANIA: AN EMPIRICAL HEDONIC PRICE APPLICATION WITH NSA SURVEY DATA

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Mustafa Kahveci

2017-06-01

Full Text Available As an immobile, durable and heterogonous good, each housing unit has a bundle of different characteristics. Hedonic price method, which depends on the consumer theory of the classical economics, implies that each characteristic of heterogeneous goods provides a different level of satisfaction or utility to the consumer, being widely accepted as a toolkit for estimating effects of these characteristics on prices and rents. HPM expresses housing prices as the function of structural characteristics, location characteristics, and neighborhood characteristics. Theory and empirical applications of the HPM, which have been used for more than 40 years in developed countries, due to the lack of suitable data related literature is limited in Albania. The aim of this paper is to analyze the relationship between housing rents and housing characteristics in urban Albania with micro database of Living Conditions and Income Survey 2012.

Do expert ratings or economic models explain champagne prices?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bentzen, Jan Børsen; Smith, Valdemar

2008-01-01

Champagne is bought with low frequency and many consumers most likely do not have or seek full information on the quality of champagne. Some consumers may rely on the reputation of particular brands, e.g. "Les Grandes Marques", some consumers choose to gain information from sensory ratings...... of champagne. The aim of this paper is to analyse the champagne prices on the Scandinavian markets by applying a hedonic price function in a comparative framework with minimal models using sensory ratings....

Measuring the contribution of water and green space amenities to housing values: an application and comparison of spatially weighted hedonic models

Science.gov (United States)

Seong-Hoon Cho; J. Michael Bowker; William M. Park

2006-01-01

This study estimates the influence of proximity to water bodies and park amenities on residential housing values in Knox County, Tennessee, using the hedonic price approach. Values for proximity to water bodies and parks are first estimated globally with a standard ordinary least squares (OLS) model. A locally weighted regression model is then employed to investigate...

The market value of cultural heritage in urban areas: an application of spatial hedonic pricing

Science.gov (United States)

Lazrak, Faroek; Nijkamp, Peter; Rietveld, Piet; Rouwendal, Jan

2014-01-01

The current literature often values intangible goods like cultural heritage by applying stated preference methods. In recent years, however, the increasing availability of large databases on real estate transactions and listed prices has opened up new research possibilities and has reduced various existing barriers to applications of conventional (spatial) hedonic analysis to the real estate market. The present paper provides one of the first applications using a spatial autoregressive model to investigate the impact of cultural heritage—in particular, listed buildings and historic-cultural sites (or historic landmarks)—on the value of real estate in cities. In addition, this paper suggests a novel way of specifying the spatial weight matrix—only prices of sold houses influence current price—in identifying the spatial dependency effects between sold properties. The empirical application in the present study concerns the Dutch urban area of Zaanstad, a historic area for which over a long period of more than 20 years detailed information on individual dwellings, and their market prices are available in a GIS context. In this paper, the effect of cultural heritage is analysed in three complementary ways. First, we measure the effect of a listed building on its market price in the relevant area concerned. Secondly, we investigate the value that listed heritage has on nearby property. And finally, we estimate the effect of historic-cultural sites on real estate prices. We find that, to purchase a listed building, buyers are willing to pay an additional 26.9 %, while surrounding houses are worth an extra 0.28 % for each additional listed building within a 50-m radius. Houses sold within a conservation area appear to gain a premium of 26.4 % which confirms the existence of a `historic ensemble' effect.

The Economic Impact of Government Policy on Market Prices of Low-Fat Pork in South Korea: A Quasi-Experimental Hedonic Price Approach

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Hyun No Kim

2018-03-01

Full Text Available The implementation of government policy can have an influence on market environment and market prices of pork in consequence. In South Korea, consumers prefer high-fat pork cuts due to the prevalence of roosting pork over a hot grill. This paper examines the impact of the government policy which aims to increase the consumption of low-fat pork cuts because of the concerns regarding asymmetric consumption between high-fat and low-fat pork cuts. Using hedonic price methods combined with quasi-experimental approaches we estimate the subsequent impact of food policy on the price of low-fat pork cuts using a time series of sales data. This study utilized an effective approach which has been widely employed for policy evaluation to produce plausible estimates of the economic values generated by the government policy. We find the existence of market segmentation and different impacts of the policy between markets. While the market price for high-fat pork cuts has remained stable, the price for low-fat pork cuts has slightly increased since the policy has been implemented. This paper illustrates that government’s policy can be a good strategy to maintain sustainability of the food industry by improving the balance in pork consumption and the management of stocks.

Rural Tourism Accommodation Prices by Land Use-Based Hedonic Approach: First Results from the Case Study of the Self-Catering Cottages in Asturias

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Celia Bilbao-Terol

2017-09-01

Full Text Available This study analyses the impacts of environmental amenities associated with agricultural and silvicultural land use on the price of rural tourism accommodation in Asturias (Spain. A hedonic price model that relates the price of rural accommodation to environmental amenities as well as equipment, services offered, and the locational characteristics of the accommodation is estimated. The rural accommodations in the study are the self-catering cottages, the intrinsic features of which promote the development of rural tourism sustainability. Geographic information systems (GIS data are used to measure the location and the proximity to amenities of these self-catering cottages. The main results indicate that agricultural land use has an important impact on the price of accommodation in self-catering cottages. Specifically, a high percentage of grassland in the municipality where the self-catering cottage is sited has a positive effect on rental prices, while a high percentage of arable crops has the opposite effect. The analysis is interesting for decision-making in the context of environmental policies, land use conflict resolution, and rural tourism sustainability.

Determining the negative effect on house values of proximity to a landfill site by means of an application of the hedonic pricing method

OpenAIRE

Mario Du Preez; T Lottering

2011-01-01

This study applied the hedonic pricing method to determine whether a disused, solid waste landfill site has an adverse effect on the prices of low-cost houses in New Brighton, a neighbourhood of the Nelson Mandela Metropole, Eastern Cape, South Africa. The results of the study show that the landfill site has a negative effect on New Brighton house prices. The average increase in house value is R36.00 per one hundred metres from the landfill site. This increase amounts to 0.44 percent of the v...

Measuring the impacts of natural amenities and the US-Mexico Border, on housing values in the Santa Cruz Watershed, using spatially-weighted hedonic modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Amaya, Gladys; Norman, Laura M.; Frisvold, George

2011-01-01

Assessing the sustainability of International policy or urban development requires consideration of the impacts of these decisions on Ecosystem Services, or the values that humans receive from the ecosystem, including market-land price, environmental, and human well-being values. Hedonic modeling helps to identify the market land price, considering the price is determined by multiple factors affecting it. In U.S. portions of the bi-national Santa Cruz Watershed (SCW), situated at the Arizona-Sonora International border, natural amenities like the riparian corridor and green space have been documented as positive amenities that boost local real estate.

Monetising the impacts of waste incinerators sited on brownfield land using the hedonic pricing method.

Science.gov (United States)

Rivas Casado, Monica; Serafini, Jan; Glen, John; Angus, Andrew

2017-03-01

In England and Wales planning regulations require local governments to treat waste near its source. This policy principle alongside regional self-sufficiency and the logistical advantages of minimising distances for waste treatment mean that energy from waste incinerators have been built close to, or even within urban conurbations. There is a clear policy and research need to balance the benefits of energy production from waste incinerators against the negative externalities experienced by local residents. However, the monetary costs of nuisance emissions from incinerators are not immediately apparent. This study uses the Hedonic Pricing Method to estimate the monetary value of impacts associated with three incinerators in England. Once operational, the impact of the incinerators on local house prices ranged from approximately 0.4% to 1.3% of the mean house price for the respective areas. Each of the incinerators studied had been sited on previously industrialised land to minimise overall impact. To an extent this was achieved and results support the effectiveness of spatial planning strategies to reduce the impact on residents. However, negative impacts occurred in areas further afield from the incinerator, suggesting that more can be done to minimise the impacts of incinerators. The results also suggest that in some case the incinerator increased the value of houses within a specified distance of incinerators under specific circumstances, which requires further investigation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

How intrinsic values influence wines prices

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gál Péter

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The use of hedonic price indices is quite common in the wine economics literature, yet they mainly include scores of organoleptic tests and some dummy variables representing varieties and quality signs as geographical indications. This study focuses on the relation between the composition and the price of wines on the example of Hungarian wines. In Hungary, the wine law renders chemical analysis compulsory for all wines released to the market. The study includes five main compounds: actual alcoholic strength, total sugars, total acidity, sugar free extract and pH value and is based on hedonic price indices calculated on a sample of 2,453 wines. Results of several regressions – using different model specifications – consistently show that actual alcoholic strength, sugar content, sugar free extract and pH value are related with the price. Some characteristics have an optimal level, while in other cases the relation is linear.

Advances in nonmarket valuation econometrics: Spatial heterogeneity in hedonic pricing models and preference heterogeneity in stated preference models

Science.gov (United States)

Yoo, Jin Woo

Counties. The spatial-lag (SLM), the spatial error (SEM) and the spatial error component (SEC) models were compared. A geographically weighted regression (GWR) model is estimated to study the spatial heterogeneity of the marginal implicit prices of ACE impact within each county. New hybrid spatial hedonic models, the GWR-SEC and a modified GWR-SEM, are estimated such that both spatial autocorrelation and heterogeneity are accounted. The results show that the coefficient of land under easement contract varies spatially within one county, but not within the other county studied. Also, ACE's are found to have both positive and negative impacts on the values of nearby residential properties. Among global spatial models, the SEM fit better than the SLM and the SEC. Statistical goodness of fit measures showed that the GWR-SEC model fit better than the GWR or the GWR-SEC model. Finally, the GWR-SEC showed spatial autocorrelation is stronger in one county than in the other county.

Price premium of organic salmon in Danish retail sale

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ankamah Yeboah, Isaac; Nielsen, Max; Nielsen, Rasmus

2016-01-01

for organic salmon in Danish retail sale using consumer panel scanner data from households by applying a random effect hedonic price model that permits unobserved household heterogeneity. A price premium of 20% was identified for organic salmon. The magnitude of this premium is comparable to organic labeled...

Media enjoyment as need satisfaction: The contribution of hedonic and non-hedonic needs

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Tamborini, R.; Grizzard, M.; Bowman, N.D.; Reinecke, L.; Lewis, R.; Eden, A.L.

2011-01-01

Most early research on entertainment defines media enjoyment in functional terms as the satisfaction of hedonic needs. Two studies demonstrate the value of including nonhedonic and hedonic need satisfaction in defining enjoyment. Both studies find support for a need-satisfaction model showing that

VALUE OF BEEF STEAK BRANDING: HEDONIC ANALYSIS OF RETAIL SCANNER DATA

OpenAIRE

Schulz, Lee L.; Schroeder, Ted C.; White, Katharine L.

2010-01-01

Consumers rely on experience and credence attributes when purchasing beef from retailers. It is essential for all beef industry sectors to recognize the complexity of consumer buying behavior. A hedonic model is estimated to determine if there are incentives to brand beef steaks, the types of brands that entertain price premiums, and the level of existing premiums. Most branded steaks garnered premiums along with organic claims, religious processing claims, and premium cuts. Factors influenci...

Implicit price of mussel characteristics in the auction market

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nguyen, Thong Tien

2012-01-01

This study explores desired and undesired characteristics of mussels in wholesale market by applying hedonic price analysis. Transaction data in auction market in Yerseke, the Netherlands, was used to estimate linear and semi-log price models. Meat content and size count, which are measured...... of raw mussels are significant discounting factors on the price. The study also investigates the impact of farming locations and seasons on the price and the price trend during the period of 2002–2009....

Determining the negative effect on house values of proximity to a landfill site by means of an application of the hedonic pricing method

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mario Du Preez

2011-08-01

Full Text Available This study applied the hedonic pricing method to determine whether a disused, solid waste landfill site has an adverse effect on the prices of low-cost houses in New Brighton, a neighbourhood of the Nelson Mandela Metropole, Eastern Cape, South Africa. The results of the study show that the landfill site has a negative effect on New Brighton house prices. The average increase in house value is R36.00 per one hundred metres from the landfill site. This increase amounts to 0.44 percent of the value of a house per 100 metres from the landfill. When the change in value is summed for all the properties in the sample area (allowing for variation in value change due to differing distances from the landfill site the total disamenity effect of the landfill site is approximately R1.4 million.

Environmental change and hedonic cost functions for automobiles.

Science.gov (United States)

Berry, S; Kortum, S; Pakes, A

1996-11-12

This paper focuses on how changes in the economic and regulatory environment have affected production costs and product characteristics in the automobile industry. We estimate "hedonic cost functions" that relate product-level costs to their characteristics. Then we examine how this cost surface has changed over time and how these changes relate to changes in gas prices and in emission standard regulations. We also briefly consider the related questions of how changes in automobile characteristics, and in the rate of patenting, are related to regulations and gas prices.

Environmental change and hedonic cost functions for automobiles

Science.gov (United States)

Berry, Steven; Kortum, Samuel; Pakes, Ariel

1996-01-01

This paper focuses on how changes in the economic and regulatory environment have affected production costs and product characteristics in the automobile industry. We estimate “hedonic cost functions” that relate product-level costs to their characteristics. Then we examine how this cost surface has changed over time and how these changes relate to changes in gas prices and in emission standard regulations. We also briefly consider the related questions of how changes in automobile characteristics, and in the rate of patenting, are related to regulations and gas prices. PMID:8917486

Quasi-Experiments and Hedonic Property Value Methods

OpenAIRE

Christopher F. Parmeter; Jaren C. Pope

2012-01-01

There has recently been a dramatic increase in the number of papers that have combined quasi-experimental methods with hedonic property models. This is largely due to the concern that cross-sectional hedonic methods may be severely biased by omitted variables. While the empirical literature has developed extensively, there has not been a consistent treatment of the theory and methods of combining hedonic property models with quasi-experiments. The purpose of this chapter is to fill this void....

HEDONIC ANALYSIS OF CELL PHONES SOLD WITH POST-PAID SERVICE PLANS IN BRAZIL

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cláudio R. Lucinda

2012-07-01

Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to analyze the determining factors for the pricing of handsets sold with service plans, using the hedonic price method. This was undertaken by building a database comprising 48 handset models, under nine different service plans, over a period of 53 weeks in 2008, and resulted in 27 different attributes and a total number of nearly 300,000 data registers. The results suggest that the value of monthly subscriptions and calling minutes are important to explain the prices of handsets. Furthermore, both the physical volume and number of megapixels of a camera had an effect on the prices. The bigger the handset, the cheaper it becomes, and the more megapixels a camera phone has, the more expensive it becomes. Additionally, it was found that in 2008 Brazilian phone companies were subsidizing enabled data connection handsets.

Valuing Residential Energy Efficiency in Two Alaska Real Estate Markets: A Hedonic Approach

Science.gov (United States)

Pride, Dominique J.

Alaska households have high home energy consumption and expenditures. Improving the energy efficiency of the housing stock can reduce home energy consumption, thereby reducing home energy expenditures and CO2 emissions. Improving the energy efficiency of a home may also increase its transaction price if the energy efficiency improvements are capitalized into the value of the home. The relationship between energy efficiency and transaction prices in the Fairbanks and Anchorage, Alaska residential real estate markets is examined. Using a hedonic pricing framework and difference-in-differences analysis, the impact of the Alaska Home Energy Rebate program on the transaction prices of single-family homes in the Fairbanks and Anchorage housing markets from 2008 through 2015 is examined. The results indicate that compared to homes that did not complete the program, homes that completed the program sell for a statistically significant price premium between 15.1% and 15.5% in the Fairbanks market and between 5% and 11% in the Anchorage market. A hedonic pricing framework is used to relate energy efficiency ratings and transaction prices of homes in the Fairbanks and Anchorage residential real estate markets from 2008 through 2015. The results indicate that homes with above-average energy efficiency ratings sell for a statistically significant price premium between 6.9% and 17.5% in the Fairbanks market and between 1.8% and 6.0% in the Anchorage market.

Hedonism and Happiness

NARCIS (Netherlands)

R. Veenhoven (Ruut)

2003-01-01

textabstractHedonism is a way of life, characterised by openness to pleasurable experience. There are many qualms about hedonism. It is rejected on moral grounds and said to be detrimental to long-term happiness. Several mechanisms for this 'paradox of hedonism' have been suggested and telling

Exploring the Intrinsic Motivation of Hedonic Information Systems Acceptance: Integrating Hedonic Theory and Flow with TAM

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Zhihuan

Research on Information Systems (IS) acceptance is substantially focused on extrinsic motivation in workplaces, little is known about the underlying intrinsic motivations of Hedonic IS (HIS) acceptance. This paper proposes a hybrid HIS acceptance model which takes the unique characteristics of HIS and multiple identities of a HIS user into consideration by interacting Hedonic theory, Flow theory with Technology Acceptance Model (TAM). The model was empirically tested by a field survey. The result indicates that emotional responses, imaginal responses, and flow experience are three main contributions of HIS acceptance.

HEDONIC VALUATION OF MARGINAL WILLINGNESS TO PAY FOR AIR QUALITY IMPROVEMENT

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Endah Saptutyningsih

2014-10-01

Full Text Available AbstractThis study aims to identify the highest air pollution areas and to estimate household marginal willingness to pay for air quality improvement. The result of Kriging technique indicates that six sub districts in Yogyakarta City and one sub district in Gunungkidul have highest concentration of particle pollution (PM10. The result of hedonic price method conclude that by adopting a two-stage estimation procedure an 1% increase in the level of PM10 reduced property prices in the study area by 0.32%. Marginal implicit price for reducing PM10 is Rp 957,900.00. The households are willing to pay an additional amount of 1.34 percent for a reduction in PM10 by 1%.Keywords: Air pollution, marginal willingness to pay, hedonic price, implicit priceJEL classification numbers: D12, Q53AbstrakPenelitian ini bertujuan mengidentifikasi daerah polusi udara tertinggi dan untuk memperkirakan kesediaan marginal rumah tangga untuk membayar untuk perbaikan kualitas udara. Dengan menggunakan teknik Kriging, hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa enam kecamatan di Kota Yogyakarta dan satu kecamatan di Gunungkidul memiliki konsentrasi tertinggi partikel polusi (PM10. Sementara itu, dengan metode harga hedonik yang mengadopsi prosedur dua tahap, paper ini menyimpulkan bahwa setiap peningkatan PM10 sebesar 1% akan menurunkan harga properti di daerah penelitian sebesar 0.32 persen. Harga implisit marjinal untuk mengurangi PM10 adalah Rp 957,900. Rumah tangga bersedia membayar tambahan 1,34 persen untuk pengurangan PM10 sebesar 1%.Kata kunci: Polusi udara, keinginan membayar marjinal, harga hedonik, SIG, harga implisitJEL classification numbers: D12, Q53

Evaluating two model reduction approaches for large scale hedonic models sensitive to omitted variables and multicollinearity

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Panduro, Toke Emil; Thorsen, Bo Jellesmark

2014-01-01

Hedonic models in environmental valuation studies have grown in terms of number of transactions and number of explanatory variables. We focus on the practical challenge of model reduction, when aiming for reliable parsimonious models, sensitive to omitted variable bias and multicollinearity. We...

Property values, parks, and crime: a hedonic analysis in Baltimore, MD

Science.gov (United States)

Austin Troy; J. Morgan Grove

2008-01-01

While urban parks are generally considered to be a positive amenity, past research suggests that some parks are perceived as a neighborhood liability. Using hedonic analysis of property data in Baltimore, MD, we attempted to determine whether crime rate mediates how parks are valued by the housing market. Transacted price was regressed against park proximity, area-...

Using Hedonic price model to estimate effects of flood on real ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Distances were measured in metres from the centroid of the building to the edge of the river and roads using Global Positioning System. The result of the estimation shows that property located within the floodplain are lowers in value by an average of N 493, 408 which represents 6.8 percent reduction in sales price for an ...

Artificial Intelligence (AI techniques to analyze the determinants attributes in housing prices

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Julia M. Núñez Tabale

2016-12-01

Full Text Available The econometric approach to obtain the value of a property began with hedonic modelling, which were based on a set of property attributes, internal or external, associated to each particular dwelling. The final sale value can be estimated, and also the marginal prices of each exogenous explanatory variable. A good alternative to the hedonic approach is based on several Artificial Intelligence (AI techniques, such as artificial neural networks (ANN, these tend to be more precise. Both methodologies are compared, and a case study is developed using data from Seville, the larger town in the South of Spain.

Measuring Product Prices under Conditions of Quality Change: The Case of Passenger Cars in Greece.

OpenAIRE

Bitros, George C; Panas, Epaminondas E

1988-01-01

The envelope curve of the bid functions for car characteristics in Greece is used to analyze the relationship between nominal and quality-adjusted car prices for 1965-85. It is estimated using the Box-Cox flexible functional form technique in a modification of S. Rosen's hedonic price model. The authors find that quality-adjusted prices of imports from West Germany, France, Italy, and Japan decline d from 1965 to 1970 and increased continuously thereafter; the quality of cars from France, Ita...

Hedonic Motivations for Online Shopping

OpenAIRE

Pui-Lai To; E-Ping Sung

2014-01-01

The purpose of this study is to investigate hedonic online shopping motivations. A qualitative analysis was conducted to explore the factors influencing online hedonic shopping motivations. The results of the study indicate that traditional hedonic values, consisting of social, role, self-gratification, learning trends, pleasure of bargaining, stimulation, diversion, status, and adventure, and dimensions of flow theory, consisting of control, curiosity, enjoyment, and telepresence, exist in t...

The role of enduring involvement in the relationship between reference price and price acceptance in the context of multichannel choice

OpenAIRE

Gyulavári, Tamás; Kolos, Krisztina; Kenesei, Zsófia

2011-01-01

Understanding online price acceptance and its determining factors can be essential if the companies try to manage different type of channels. The paper aimed to reveal the role of enduring involvement in price acceptance in a multichannel (online and offline) context. The study revealed that the hedonic value of shopping can increase the negative intention of price acceptance in the online channel, but also explored that for the segment without shopping motivations a similar price level can b...

The Hedonic Haptic Player

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Vallgårda, Anna; Boer, Laurens; Cahill, Ben

2017-01-01

In this design case we present the Hedonic Haptic Player—a wearable device that plays different patterns of vibrations on the body as a form of music for the skin. With this we begin to explore the enjoyability of vibrations in a wearable set-up. Instead of implementing vibrations as a haptic...... output for some form of communication we want to explore their hedonistic value. The process leading up to the Hedonic Haptic player served as a first step in getting a grasp of the design space of vibrotactile stimuli in a broader sense. This is reported as seven episodes of explorations. The Hedonic...

Determinants of Livestock Prices in Ethiopian Pastoral Livestock Markets: Implications for Pastoral Marketing Strategies

OpenAIRE

Belayneh, Hailemariam Teklewold; Feye, Getachew Legese; Alemu, Dawit; Negassa, Asfaw

2009-01-01

The major objective of this paper is to identify determinants of market prices for cattle, sheep and goat in the export market value chain starting from pastoral markets to export abattoirs and live animal exporters. The study is based on the information generated through a formal survey conducted in the major pastoral livestock markets of Ethiopia with 128 collectors, small and big traders, feedlot operators, live animal and meat exporters. Hedonic price formation model was used to analyze t...

The Economics of Style : Measuring the Price Effect of Neo-Traditional Architecture in Housing

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Buitelaar, E.; Schilder, Frans

2017-01-01

Vintage effects have received considerable attention from economists in the context of house prices. Although strongly related, the impact of architectural building styles on prices has not been studied yet. Using a cross-sectional hedonic price analysis including building styles of recently

Price versus Non-price Incentives for Participation in Quality Labeling: The Case of the German Fruit Juice Industry

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Simon Bleich

2013-03-01

Full Text Available Quality assurance and labeling play an important and increasing role in firms’ marketing strategies. In almost all cases, a price incentive has been stressed as the major incentive for firms to participate in such schemes. We argue here that important non-price incentives for participation in quality labeling may exist, too. In German retailing, it can be observed that discount retailers are listing more and more foods with quality labels. Processors may then participate in voluntary quality labeling in order to enter the large and growing market of discount retailers. The price-premium versus the market-entry hypothesis are analyzed theo-retically. We investigate then in an empirical hedonic pricing model for the German fruit juice market and for participation in the quality label of the Deutsche Landwirtschafts-Gesellschaft (DLG which of the two hypotheses is consistent with the data. There is strong support for the market-entry hypothesis

A hedonic analysis of the complex hunting experience

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lundhede, Thomas; Jacobsen, Jette Bredahl; Thorsen, Bo Jellesmark

2015-01-01

In Denmark, the right to hunt is vested with the land owner but can be transferred to others and is traded on a well-established market. The dominant form of hunting leases is time limited contract transferring the hunting rights on a piece of land to one or more persons. We analyze this market...... for hunting leases using the hedonic method on a rich set of data obtained from Danish hunters. We hypothesize and show that the price of a hunting lease reflects that hunting is a composite experience; and also reflects aspects relating to the landowners cost of leasing out hunting. Thus, the value...

Stochastic Local Search for Core Membership Checking in Hedonic Games

Science.gov (United States)

Keinänen, Helena

Hedonic games have emerged as an important tool in economics and show promise as a useful formalism to model multi-agent coalition formation in AI as well as group formation in social networks. We consider a coNP-complete problem of core membership checking in hedonic coalition formation games. No previous algorithms to tackle the problem have been presented. In this work, we overcome this by developing two stochastic local search algorithms for core membership checking in hedonic games. We demonstrate the usefulness of the algorithms by showing experimentally that they find solutions efficiently, particularly for large agent societies.

Effects of environmental amenities and locational disamenities on home values in the Santa Cruz watershed: a hedonic analysis using census data

Science.gov (United States)

Arora, Gaurav; Frisvold, George; Norman, Laura

2014-01-01

For this study, we used the hedonic pricing method to measure the effects of natural amenities on home prices in the U.S-side of the Santa Cruz Watershed. We employed multivariate spatial regression techniques to estimate how difference factors affect median home values in 613 census block groups of the 2000 Census, accounting for spatial autocorrelation, spatial lags, and/or spatial heterogeneity in the data. Diagnostic tests suggest that failure to account for the hedonic model can be classified as (1) physical features of the housing stock, (2) neighborhood characteristics, and (3) environmental attributes. Census data was combined with GIS data for vegetation and land cover, land administration, measures of species richness and open space, and proximity to amenities and disamenities. Census block groups close to the US-Mexico border of airports/air bases were negative. Results suggest that policies to maintain biodiversity and open space provide economic benefits to homeowners, reflected in higher home values. Future research will quantify the marginal effects of regression explanatory variables on home values to assess their economic and policy significant. These marginal effects will be used as input indicators to discern potential economic impacts of various scenarios in the Santa Cruz Watershed Ecosystem Portfolio Model (SCWEPM). Future research will also expand this effort into the Mexican-portion of the watershed.

Property Mix Heterogeneity and Market Cycles: How Much Can We Rely on Median-Price Indices?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Odilon Ricardo da Hora Gonçalves Fernandes Costa

2017-05-01

Full Text Available Objective. Understand in which types of location median-price indices could provide reasonable estimates of rent growth. As far as our research allows, the market-based measures developed througout this study are the first to emphasize office properties in Brazil using an hedonic framework.Methodology. Create appraisal-based indices of rent growth using median-price and hedonic-based techniques for two regions with different degrees of property mix heterogeneity and compare their behavior overtime.Findings. Volatility in median-price measures is larger than hedonic-based measures in market peaks and throughs due to different weighting of high and low-tier properties overtime. This result is stronger in the location with higher property mix heterogeneity and, consequently, exacerbates market cycles in this region.  Limitations. We do not find statistically significant differences between the measures considered. Nevertheless, we do not consider whether this similarity would hold when using transactional-based data.    Value. Our results suggest that researchers, policy makers and investors need to take into account the “undesired fluctuation” of median-price measures when interpreting such indices.  

Beyond the Hedonic Treadmill: Revising the Adaptation Theory of Well-Being

Science.gov (United States)

Diener, Ed; Lucas, Richard E.; Napa, Christine

2006-01-01

According to the hedonic treadmill model, good and bad events temporarily affect happiness, but people quickly adapt back to hedonic neutrality. The theory, which has gained widespread acceptance in recent years, implies that individual and societal efforts to increase happiness are doomed to failure. The recent empirical work outlined here…

Pricing Mining Concessions Based on Combined Multinomial Pricing Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chang Xiao

2017-01-01

Full Text Available A combined multinomial pricing model is proposed for pricing mining concession in which the annualized volatility of the price of mineral products follows a multinomial distribution. First, a combined multinomial pricing model is proposed which consists of binomial pricing models calculated according to different volatility values. Second, a method is provided to calculate the annualized volatility and the distribution. Third, the value of convenience yields is calculated based on the relationship between the futures price and the spot price. The notion of convenience yields is used to adjust our model as well. Based on an empirical study of a Chinese copper mine concession, we verify that our model is easy to use and better than the model with constant volatility when considering the changing annualized volatility of the price of the mineral product.

Casemix funding for a specialist paediatrics hospital: a hedonic regression approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Bridges, J F; Hanson, R M

2000-01-01

This paper inquires into the effects that Diagnosis Related Groups (DRGs) have had on the ability to explain patient-level costs in a specialist paediatrics hospital. Two hedonic models are estimated using 1996/97 New Children's Hospital (NCH) patient level cost data, one with and one without a casemix index (CMI). The results show that the inclusion of a casemix index as an explanatory variable leads to a better accounting of cost. The full hedonic model is then used to simulate a funding model for the 1997/98 NCH cost data. These costs are highly correlated with the actual costs reported for that year. In addition, univariate regression indicates that there has been inflation in costs in the order of 4.8% between the two years. In conclusion, hedonic analysis can provide valuable evidence for the design of funding models that account for casemix.

An Empirical Investigation of the Impact of Online Product Presentation on Hedonic Web Shopping

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lim, Eric T. K.; Tan, Chee-Wee; Seo, Dongback

2013-01-01

presentation formats influence consumers’ hedonic web shopping experience. Building on the Theory of Reasoned Action (TRA), we advance a theoretical model that posits enjoyment and flow as positive indicators of consumers’ hedonic web shopping experience, which in turn affects their behavioral intents...... to return and purchase from an e-commerce website. Our theoretical model is then subjected to empirical validation through an experiment that distinguishes between functional (product description) and visual (product display) dimensions of online product presentation. Findings suggest that hedonic web...

Exploring Utilitarian and Hedonic Aspects of Consumption at the Bottom of Pyramid

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Felipe Gerhard

2017-08-01

Full Text Available The number of researches about the Bottom of Pyramid has increased over the last decades; however, a discussion about its consumer habits is still necessary. Thus, this paper aims to investigate the behavior of consumers in informal markets, inherent to this segment. Specifically, this study explores the meanings attributed by consumers to attend a trade fair, through the lenses of hedonic and utilitarian buying values. Through the triangulation of two research methods, Birds’ Fair and its consumers (Brazil were analyzed. The results highlight the fact that the Fair is constituted by the syncretism of non-homogenous groups of consumers, who have different reasons to visit it. Along with the central economic-utilitarian concept of low-prices, a hedonic-festive element arises as an essential attribute of the consumer’s behavior. In this sense, individuals make their purchases guided by a need for usefulness, but there is also pleasure in the activity of shopping itself.

Designing Hedonic User Experiences: The Effect Of Psychological Need Fulfilment On Hedonic Motivation

OpenAIRE

Rocznik, Dorothee; Goffart, Klaus; Wiesche, Manuel

2017-01-01

Within the last two decades the investigation of emotional and experiential influences in technology acceptance gained increasing attention. Especially in the context of the Internet of Things (IoT) researchers discovered the potential of designing hedonic experiences for customers. Recent studies integrated hedonic motivation as a core construct of the Unified Theory of Adoption and Use of Technology (UTAUT2) and confirmed the importance of its role. Nevertheless, we still lack r...

The impact of hazardous industrial facilities on housing prices: A comparison of parametric and semiparametric hedonic price models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Grislain-Letrémy, Céline; Katossky, Arthur

2014-01-01

The willingness of households to pay for prevention against industrial risks can be revealed by real estate markets. By using very rich microdata, we study housing prices in the vicinity of hazardous industries near three important French cities. We show that the impact of hazardous plants...... to important biases in the estimated value of the impact of hazardous plants on housing values....

Impact of sucrose contents and cooking time on cowpea prices in Senegal

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mb.D Faye

2014-07-01

Full Text Available An alternative approach to traditional consumer behaviour and demand theory is characteristics theory, which assumes that a consumer’s utility function is generated by the characteristics, or attributes, that goods and services possess. Instead of a utility being a function of a product, it becomes a function of the attributes provided by these products. In this paper a hedonic pricing model is used to investigate the influence of sucrose level and cooking time on cowpea prices in Senegal.  Cooking time has a significant impact on price only at Tilene market in Dakar, while the sucrose contents tend to provide a premium throughout. Further investigation shows that the local varieties, AW, Matam and Ndiassiw have higher sucrose contents than the other cowpea varieties.

The independent and interacting effects of hedonic hunger and executive function on binge eating.

Science.gov (United States)

Manasse, Stephanie M; Espel, Hallie M; Forman, Evan M; Ruocco, Anthony C; Juarascio, Adrienne S; Butryn, Meghan L; Zhang, Fengqing; Lowe, Michael R

2015-06-01

Poor executive function (EF; pre-frontal cognitive control processes governing goal-directed behavior) and elevated hedonic hunger (i.e., preoccupation with palatable foods in the absence of physiological hunger) are theoretical risk and maintenance factors for binge eating (BE) distinct from general obesity. Recent theoretical models posit that dysregulated behavior such as BE may result from a combination of elevated appetitive drive (e.g., hedonic hunger) and decreased EF (e.g., inhibitory control and delayed discounting). The present study sought to test this model in distinguishing BE from general obesity by examining the independent and interactive associations of EF and hedonic hunger with BE group status (i.e., odds of categorization in BE group versus non-BE group). Treatment-seeking overweight and obese women with BE (n = 31) and without BE (OW group; n = 43) were assessed on measures of hedonic hunger and EF (inhibitory control and delay discounting). Elevated hedonic hunger increased the likelihood of categorization in the BE group, regardless of EF. When hedonic hunger was low, poor EF increased the likelihood of categorization in the BE group. Results indicate that the interplay of increased appetitive drives and decreased cognitive function may distinguish BE from overweight/obesity. Future longitudinal investigations of the combinatory effect of hedonic hunger and EF in increasing risk for developing BE are warranted, and may inform future treatment development to target these factors. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The effect of health/hedonic claims on consumer hedonic and sensory perception of sugar reduction: Case study with orange/passionfruit nectars.

Science.gov (United States)

Oliveira, Denize; Ares, Gastón; Deliza, Rosires

2018-06-01

Sugar reduction in beverages can contribute to reduce consumption of this nutrient and to improve the health status of the population. However, such reduction can negatively affect consumer perception. Label information can be an effective tool to increase consumer interest in sugar-reduced products. In this context, the aim of the present work was to study the influence of health/hedonic claims on consumer hedonic and sensory perception of sugar reduction in orange/passionfruit nectars under expected and informed conditions. Sugar-reduced orange/passionfruit nectars (20% and 40% reduced in added sugar) featuring different claims (none, health claim or hedonic claim) were evaluated, together with a control product without reduction. Following a between-subjects experimental design, 206 participants evaluated the nectars under two experimental conditions: (a) expected, looking at the packages, and (b) informed, looking at the packages and tasting the nectars. In each experimental condition, participants evaluated their overall liking using a 9-point hedonic scale and answered a check-all-that-apply questions related to the sensory characteristics of the nectars. Results showed that although consumers did not have negative expectations about sugar-reduced nectars, the sensory characteristics of the products were the main determinants of consumers' hedonic reaction towards the nectars. The influence of claims on consumers' perception was modulated by their hedonic sensitivity towards sugar-reduction. The hedonic claim increased overall liking of those consumers with low hedonic sensitivity towards sugar reduction, whereas it had the opposite effect on the most sensitive consumers. Results from the present work suggest that although hedonic claims hold potential for a consumer segment, care must be taken to avoid the generation of unrealistic expectations about the sensory characteristics of sugar-reduced products. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The integrated model of smartphone adoption: hedonic and utilitarian value perceptions of smartphones among Korean college students.

Science.gov (United States)

Chun, Heasun; Lee, Hyunjoo; Kim, Daejoong

2012-09-01

This study aims to propose an integrated model of smartphone adoption that incorporates social influences (SIs), perceived technicality, as well as hedonic and utilitarian attitudes into the technology acceptance model. The proposed model was empirically evaluated by using survey data collected from 239 Korean college students to investigate their perception and attitudes toward smartphone adoption intention. Our results show that users' attitudes and their adoption intention are highly influenced by SI and positive self-image. This implies that a smartphone is a symbolic product that can signal affiliation and enhance the users' status in a group. The results also indicate that hedonic enjoyment is equally important as utilitarian usefulness in predicting the adoption intention, and the two variables mediate the relationships between SI, positive self-image, perceived technicality, and the intention to use. Consequently, the results reveal that smartphones are convergent media that can be viewed as both task-oriented and entertainment-oriented devices.

Estimating commercial property prices: an application of cokriging with housing prices as ancillary information

Science.gov (United States)

Montero-Lorenzo, José-María; Larraz-Iribas, Beatriz; Páez, Antonio

2009-12-01

A vast majority of the recent literature on spatial hedonic analysis has been concerned with residential property values, with only very few examples of studies focused on commercial property prices. The dearth of studies can be attributed to some of the challenges faced in the analysis of commercial properties, in particular the scarcity of information compared to residential transactions. In order to address this issue, in this paper we propose the use of cokriging and housing prices as ancillary information to estimate commercial property prices. Cokriging takes into account the spatial autocorrelation structure of property prices, and the use of more abundant information on housing prices helps to improve the accuracy of property value estimates. A case study of Toledo in Spain, a city for which commercial activity stemming from tourism is one of the key elements of the economy in the city, demonstrates that substantial accuracy and precision gains can be obtained from the use of cokriging.

An electricity price model with consideration to load and gas price effects.

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Min-xiang; Tao, Xiao-hu; Han, Zhen-xiang

2003-01-01

Some characteristics of the electricity load and prices are studied, and the relationship between electricity prices and gas (fuel) prices is analyzed in this paper. Because electricity prices are strongly dependent on load and gas prices, the authors constructed a model for electricity prices based on the effects of these two factors; and used the Geometric Mean Reversion Brownian Motion (GMRBM) model to describe the electricity load process, and a Geometric Brownian Motion(GBM) model to describe the gas prices; deduced the price stochastic process model based on the above load model and gas price model. This paper also presents methods for parameters estimation, and proposes some methods to solve the model.

Hedonic analysis of ultra-high-temperature-treated milk prices in Italy

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bimbo, Francesco; Bonanno, Alessandro; Liu, Xuan; Viscecchia, Rosaria

2016-01-01

The Italian market for UHT milk has been growing thanks to both consumers' interest in products with an extended shelf life and to the lower prices of these products compared with refrigerated, pasteurized milk. However, because the lower prices of UHT milk can hinder producers' margins,

Homeostatic modulation on unconscious hedonic responses to food.

Science.gov (United States)

Sato, Wataru; Sawada, Reiko; Kubota, Yasutaka; Toichi, Motomi; Fushiki, Tohru

2017-10-26

Hedonic/affective responses to food play a critical role in eating behavior. Previous behavioral studies have shown that hedonic responses to food are elicited consciously and unconsciously. Although the studies also showed that hunger and satiation have a modulatory effect on conscious hedonic responses to food, the effect of these homeostatic states on unconscious hedonic responses to food remains unknown. We investigated unconscious hedonic responses to food in hungry and satiated participants using the subliminal affective priming paradigm. Food images or corresponding mosaic images were presented in the left or right peripheral visual field during 33 ms. Then photographs of target faces with emotionally neutral expressions were presented, and the participants evaluated their preference for the faces. Additionally, daily eating behaviors were assessed using questionnaires. Preference for the target faces was increased by food images relative to the mosaics in the hungry, but not the satiated, state. The difference in preference ratings between the food and mosaic conditions was positively correlated with the tendency for external eating in the hungry, but not the satiated, group. Our findings suggest that homeostatic states modulate unconscious hedonic responses to food and that this phenomenon is related to daily eating behaviors.

Derivation and evaluation of a labeled hedonic scale.

Science.gov (United States)

Lim, Juyun; Wood, Alison; Green, Barry G

2009-11-01

The objective of this study was to develop a semantically labeled hedonic scale (LHS) that would yield ratio-level data on the magnitude of liking/disliking of sensation equivalent to that produced by magnitude estimation (ME). The LHS was constructed by having 49 subjects who were trained in ME rate the semantic magnitudes of 10 common hedonic descriptors within a broad context of imagined hedonic experiences that included tastes and flavors. The resulting bipolar scale is statistically symmetrical around neutral and has a unique semantic structure. The LHS was evaluated quantitatively by comparing it with ME and the 9-point hedonic scale. The LHS yielded nearly identical ratings to those obtained using ME, which implies that its semantic labels are valid and that it produces ratio-level data equivalent to ME. Analyses of variance conducted on the hedonic ratings from the LHS and the 9-point scale gave similar results, but the LHS showed much greater resistance to ceiling effects and yielded normally distributed data, whereas the 9-point scale did not. These results indicate that the LHS has significant semantic, quantitative, and statistical advantages over the 9-point hedonic scale.

The Demand for Child Care Quality. An Hedonic Price Theory Approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Hagy, Alison P.

1998-01-01

An implicit price for child care staff-to-child ratio was used to study demand for child care quality. Direct purchase-of-service contracts or vouchers, which subsidize only providers meeting state regulations, effectively lower implicit price and have little influence on the demand for quality. (Author/SK)

The Earnings/Price Risk Factor in Capital Asset Pricing Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rafael Falcão Noda

2015-01-01

Full Text Available This article integrates the ideas from two major lines of research on cost of equity and asset pricing: multi-factor models and ex ante accounting models. The earnings/price ratio is used as a proxy for the ex ante cost of equity, in order to explain realized returns of Brazilian companies within the period from 1995 to 2013. The initial finding was that stocks with high (low earnings/price ratios have higher (lower risk-adjusted realized returns, already controlled by the capital asset pricing model's beta. The results show that selecting stocks based on high earnings/price ratios has led to significantly higher risk-adjusted returns in the Brazilian market, with average abnormal returns close to 1.3% per month. We design asset pricing models including an earnings/price risk factor, i.e. high earnings minus low earnings, based on the Fama and French three-factor model. We conclude that such a risk factor is significant to explain returns on portfolios, even when controlled by size and market/book ratios. Models including the high earnings minus low earnings risk factor were better to explain stock returns in Brazil when compared to the capital asset pricing model and to the Fama and French three-factor model, having the lowest number of significant intercepts. These findings may be due to the impact of historically high inflation rates, which reduce the information content of book values, thus making the models based on earnings/price ratios better than those based on market/book ratios. Such results are different from those obtained in more developed markets and the superiority of the earnings/price ratio for asset pricing may also exist in other emerging markets.

Reexamining the Impact of Employee Relocation Assistance on Housing Prices

OpenAIRE

Marcus T. Allen; Ronald C. Rutherford; Thomas M. Springer

1997-01-01

In this paper, we reexamine the issue of whether corporate relocation assistance programs for transferred employees significantly affect sale prices of single-family homes. We estimate a hedonic price equation that includes physical housing characteristics, location factors, occupancy status, and type of seller for a sample of 2,441 transactions. Seller types include (a) transferred employees who were given direct relocation assistance, (b) transferred employees who were not given direct relo...

The challenge of staying happier: testing the Hedonic Adaptation Prevention model.

Science.gov (United States)

Sheldon, Kennon M; Lyubomirsky, Sonja

2012-05-01

The happiness that comes from a particular success or change in fortune abates with time. The Hedonic Adaptation Prevention (HAP) model specifies two routes by which the well-being gains derived from a positive life change are eroded--the first involving bottom-up processes (i.e., declining positive emotions generated by the positive change) and the second involving top-down processes (i.e., increased aspirations for even more positivity). The model also specifies two moderators that can forestall these processes--continued appreciation of the original life change and continued variety in change-related experiences. The authors formally tested the predictions of the HAP model in a 3-month three-wave longitudinal study of 481 students. Temporal path analyses and moderated regression analyses provided good support for the model. Implications for the stability of well-being, the feasibility of "the pursuit of happiness," and the appeal of overconsumption are discussed.

Pharmaceutical pricing: an empirical study of market competition in Chinese hospitals.

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Jing; Xu, Judy; Liu, Gordon; Wu, Jiuhong

2014-03-01

High pharmaceutical prices and over-prescribing of high-priced pharmaceuticals in Chinese hospitals has long been criticized. Although policy makers have tried to address these issues, they have not yet found an effective balance between government regulation and market forces. Our objective was to explore the impact of market competition on pharmaceutical pricing under Chinese government regulation. Data from 11 public tertiary hospitals in three cities in China from 2002 to 2005 were used to explore the effect of generic and therapeutic competition on prices of antibiotics and cardiovascular products. A quasi-hedonic regression model was employed to estimate the impact of competition. The inputs to our model were specific attributes of the products and manufacturers, with the exception of competition variables. Our results suggest that pharmaceutical prices are inversely related to the number of generic and therapeutic competitors, but positively related to the number of therapeutic classes. In addition, the product prices of leading local manufacturers are not only significantly lower than those of global manufacturers, but are also lower than their non-leading counterparts when other product attributes are controlled for. Under the highly price-regulated market in China, competition from generic and therapeutic competitors did decrease pharmaceutical prices. Further research is needed to explore whether this competition increases consumer welfare in China's healthcare setting.

Dissociation of hedonic reaction to reward and incentive motivation in an animal model of the negative symptoms of schizophrenia.

Science.gov (United States)

Ward, Ryan D; Simpson, Eleanor H; Richards, Vanessa L; Deo, Gita; Taylor, Kathleen; Glendinning, John I; Kandel, Eric R; Balsam, Peter D

2012-06-01

We previously showed that mice that selectively and reversibly overexpress striatal D2 receptors (D2R-OE) model the negative symptoms of schizophrenia. Specifically, D2R-OE mice display a deficit in incentive motivation. The present studies investigated the basis for this deficit. First, we assessed whether hedonic reaction to reward is intact in D2R-OE mice. We assessed licking behavior and video-scored positive hedonic facial reactions to increasing concentrations of sucrose in control and D2R-OE mice. We found no difference between D2R-OE mice and controls in hedonic reactions. To further understand the basis of the motivational deficit, mice were given a choice between pressing a lever for access to a preferred reward (evaporated milk) or consuming a freely available less preferred reward (home-cage chow). D2R-OE mice pressed less for the preferred milk and consumed more of the freely available less preferred chow, indicating that striatal overexpression of postsynaptic D2Rs can alter cost/benefit computations, leading to a motivational deficit. This motivational impairment was ameliorated when the transgene was turned off and D2R levels were normalized. Such a deficit may arise from impaired ability to represent the value of future rewards. To test this, we used operant concurrent schedules and found reduced sensitivity to the value of future outcomes in D2R-OE mice. These results demonstrate for the first time in a transgenic animal model of schizophrenia a dissociation between hedonic reaction to reward and incentive motivation, and show a striking parallel to the proposed neurobiological and psychological mechanisms of impaired incentive motivation in schizophrenia.

Retail Price Model

Science.gov (United States)

The Retail Price Model is a tool to estimate the average retail electricity prices - under both competitive and regulated market structures - using power sector projections and assumptions from the Energy Information Administration.

Derivation and Evaluation of a Labeled Hedonic Scale

OpenAIRE

Lim, Juyun; Wood, Alison; Green, Barry G.

2009-01-01

The objective of this study was to develop a semantically labeled hedonic scale (LHS) that would yield ratio-level data on the magnitude of liking/disliking of sensation equivalent to that produced by magnitude estimation (ME). The LHS was constructed by having 49 subjects who were trained in ME rate the semantic magnitudes of 10 common hedonic descriptors within a broad context of imagined hedonic experiences that included tastes and flavors. The resulting bipolar scale is statistically symm...

Longitudinal trends in hedonic hunger after Roux-en-Y gastric bypass in adolescents.

Science.gov (United States)

Cushing, Christopher C; Benoit, Stephen C; Peugh, James L; Reiter-Purtill, Jennifer; Inge, Thomas H; Zeller, Meg H

2014-01-01

Initial outcome studies have reported that Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGB) is safe and efficacious for adolescents with extreme obesity. Although rapid weight loss is seen initially, data also show that modest weight regain typically occurs as early as the second postoperative year. The contribution of various psychological factors, including hedonic hunger, to postoperative weight regain has not previously been studied in adolescents. The objective of this study was to examine the variability in hedonic hunger and body mass index (BMI) over the initial 2-year period of weight loss and modest weight regain in adolescent RYGB recipients. A total of 16 adolescents completed the Power of Food Scale before surgery and at 3, 6, 12, 18, and 24 months postoperatively. Height and weight were measured at each time point, from which BMI was calculated. Nonlinear trends were observed for time on both overall hedonic hunger and hedonic hunger specifically related to food available in the adolescent's environment. The BMI reduction during the first 18 months postoperatively was paralleled by reduction in hedonic hunger; increases in hedonic hunger also paralleled the modest BMI increase at 24 months. In growth analysis, significant power gains are available to models using 4 or more points of data. However, only large effect sizes that are>.85 were detectable with a sample of 16 patients. These data provide preliminary evidence that hedonic hunger is in need of further study in adolescent patients receiving RYGB both preoperatively and postoperatively. Copyright © 2014 American Society for Bariatric Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Real estate appraisal of land lots using GAMLSS models

OpenAIRE

Florencio, Lutemberg; Cribari-Neto, Francisco; Ospina, Raydonal

2011-01-01

The valuation of real estates (e.g., house, land, among others) is of extreme importance for decision making. Their singular characteristics make valuation through hedonic pricing methods dificult since the theory does not specify the correct regression functional form nor which explanatory variables should be included in the hedonic equation. In this article we perform real estate appraisal using a class of regression models proposed by Rigby & Stasinopoulos (2005): generalized additive mode...

Hedonic travel cost and random utility models of recreation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pendleton, L. [Univ. of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA (United States); Mendelsohn, R.; Davis, E.W. [Yale Univ., New Haven, CT (United States). School of Forestry and Environmental Studies

1998-07-09

Micro-economic theory began as an attempt to describe, predict and value the demand and supply of consumption goods. Quality was largely ignored at first, but economists have started to address quality within the theory of demand and specifically the question of site quality, which is an important component of land management. This paper demonstrates that hedonic and random utility models emanate from the same utility theoretical foundation, although they make different estimation assumptions. Using a theoretically consistent comparison, both approaches are applied to examine the quality of wilderness areas in the Southeastern US. Data were collected on 4778 visits to 46 trails in 20 different forest areas near the Smoky Mountains. Visitor data came from permits and an independent survey. The authors limited the data set to visitors from within 300 miles of the North Carolina and Tennessee border in order to focus the analysis on single purpose trips. When consistently applied, both models lead to results with similar signs but different magnitudes. Because the two models are equally valid, recreation studies should continue to use both models to value site quality. Further, practitioners should be careful not to make simplifying a priori assumptions which limit the effectiveness of both techniques.

Internet usage purposes and gender differences in the effects of perceived utilitarian and hedonic value.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Edward Shih-Tse

2010-04-01

Previous research on both hedonic and utilitarian value has focused considerable effort on outcomes. Few studies compare the impact of Internet usage purposes and gender differences on perceived value effect. The current study explores whether differences in the relative influence of hedonic and utilitarian value affect consumer information search and shopping intentions on the Internet. This study also compares perceived value impact on behavioral intention among respondents in regard to gender. This research uses structural equation modeling of survey data (N = 341). Results show that perceived hedonic and utilitarian value have significantly different effect on information search and shopping intention through the Internet. Hedonic values have positively higher association with customer intention to buy than with intent to search information. Findings also show that hedonic values influence male user intentions to search information but do not influence females. This work presents a theoretical discussion and implications based on the results for the benefit of online practitioners.

Improving the asset pricing ability of the Consumption-Capital Asset Pricing Model?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rasmussen, Anne-Sofie Reng

This paper compares the asset pricing ability of the traditional consumption-based capital asset pricing model to models from two strands of literature attempting to improve on the poor empirical results of the C-CAPM. One strand is based on the intertemporal asset pricing model of Campbell (1993...... able to price assets conditionally as suggested by Cochrane (1996) and Lettau and Ludvigson (2001b). The unconditional C-CAPM is rewritten as a scaled factor model using the approximate log consumptionwealth ratio cay, developed by Lettau and Ludvigson (2001a), as scaling variable. The models...... and composite. Thus, there is no unambiguous solution to the pricing ability problems of the C-CAPM. Models from both the alternative literature strands are found to outperform the traditional C-CAPM on average pricing errors. However, when weighting pricing errors by the full variance-covariance matrix...

Spontaneous Hedonic Reactions to Social Media Cues.

Science.gov (United States)

van Koningsbruggen, Guido M; Hartmann, Tilo; Eden, Allison; Veling, Harm

2017-05-01

Why is it so difficult to resist the desire to use social media? One possibility is that frequent social media users possess strong and spontaneous hedonic reactions to social media cues, which, in turn, makes it difficult to resist social media temptations. In two studies (total N = 200), we investigated less-frequent and frequent social media users' spontaneous hedonic reactions to social media cues using the Affect Misattribution Procedure-an implicit measure of affective reactions. Results demonstrated that frequent social media users showed more favorable affective reactions in response to social media (vs. control) cues, whereas less-frequent social media users' affective reactions did not differ between social media and control cues (Studies 1 and 2). Moreover, the spontaneous hedonic reactions to social media (vs. control) cues were related to self-reported cravings to use social media and partially accounted for the link between social media use and social media cravings (Study 2). These findings suggest that frequent social media users' spontaneous hedonic reactions in response to social media cues might contribute to their difficulties in resisting desires to use social media.

Market Efficiency, Uncertainty And Risk Management in Real Estate Valuation – How Hedonics May Help

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

François Des Rosiers

2013-08-01

Full Text Available The 2007-2008 subprime mortgage crisis has profoundly modified the way investment and management risks are perceived by economic agents. In particular, both private and institutional players in the property sector are now being compelled to follow more stringent rules and to display greater transparency in their management of risk issues and of lending practices. In that context, analytical tools based on statistics and econometric modelling are increasingly resorted to as risk-containment devices. The purpose of the paper is to look at how real estate appraisal practitioners and related professionals may benefit from a greater recourse to statistics and, more precisely, to econometric modelling, in their search for market value. As brought out in the real estate literature, the very definition of market value lends itself to a statistical approach, the latter reaching its full meaning with the hedonic price (HP method which is shown to be an extension of the traditional sales comparison approach.

Internet resource pricing models

CERN Document Server

Xu, Ke; He, Huan

2013-01-01

This brief guides the reader through three basic Internet resource pricing models using an Internet cost analysis. Addressing the evolution of service types, it presents several corresponding mechanisms which can ensure pricing implementation and resource allocation. The authors discuss utility optimization of network pricing methods in economics and underline two classes of pricing methods including system optimization and entities' strategic optimization. The brief closes with two examples of the newly proposed pricing strategy helping to solve the profit distribution problem brought by P2P

Pricing of environmental friendly herbicides appropriate for sustainable agriculture, A case study: wheat farmers in Khorasan Razavi province

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mohammad Ghorbani

2016-04-01

Full Text Available Awareness of wheat farmers’ personal preferences towards environmental issues and weed types is important in pricing bioherbicides for sustainable weed management and could consequently be a fundamental guide to agricultural authorities and policy-makers. In the present study, a survey was carried out by using data collected from 180 wheat farmers of Korasan Razavi province during 2008, together with hedonic pricing method. The role of environmental qualitative factors and weed type on pricing environmental-friendly herbicides on the basis of “willingness to pay” was studied. Results from the estimation of hedonic pricing method indicated that reduction of water pollution, human health risk, farmers information about negative effects of chemical herbicides and the virtual variable of weed type had significant effects on pricing environmental friendly herbicides. Variables of soil pollution and weed perenniality had no significant effects on pricing herbicide applicable to sustainable agricultural systems. Based on the results of this study, possibilities of using bioherbicide or less pollutant herbicides and also the rate of farmers willingness to pay for alternatives in the region are important factors recommended for additional studies

A Multiperiod Equilibrium Pricing Model

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Minsuk Kwak

2014-01-01

Full Text Available We propose an equilibrium pricing model in a dynamic multiperiod stochastic framework with uncertain income. There are one tradable risky asset (stock/commodity, one nontradable underlying (temperature, and also a contingent claim (weather derivative written on the tradable risky asset and the nontradable underlying in the market. The price of the contingent claim is priced in equilibrium by optimal strategies of representative agent and market clearing condition. The risk preferences are of exponential type with a stochastic coefficient of risk aversion. Both subgame perfect strategy and naive strategy are considered and the corresponding equilibrium prices are derived. From the numerical result we examine how the equilibrium prices vary in response to changes in model parameters and highlight the importance of our equilibrium pricing principle.

Multi-factor energy price models and exotic derivatives pricing

Science.gov (United States)

Hikspoors, Samuel

The high pace at which many of the world's energy markets have gradually been opened to competition have generated a significant amount of new financial activity. Both academicians and practitioners alike recently started to develop the tools of energy derivatives pricing/hedging as a quantitative topic of its own. The energy contract structures as well as their underlying asset properties set the energy risk management industry apart from its more standard equity and fixed income counterparts. This thesis naturally contributes to these broad market developments in participating to the advances of the mathematical tools aiming at a better theory of energy contingent claim pricing/hedging. We propose many realistic two-factor and three-factor models for spot and forward price processes that generalize some well known and standard modeling assumptions. We develop the associated pricing methodologies and propose stable calibration algorithms that motivate the application of the relevant modeling schemes.

A model for the effects of psychological pricing in Gabor-Granger price studies

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wedel, M; Leeflang, PSH

We present a model of consumers' price sensitivity that explicitly deals with the existence of so-called psychological price levels or odd prices, i.e. prices ending in an odd number. The model is formulated in a latent class framework, in which splines are used to model utility as a function of

Oil transformation sector modelling: price interactions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Maurer, A.

1992-01-01

A global oil and oil product prices evolution model is proposed that covers the transformation sector incidence and the final user price establishment together with price interactions between gaseous and liquid hydrocarbons. High disparities among oil product prices in the various consumer zones (North America, Western Europe, Japan) are well described and compared with the low differences between oil supply prices in these zones. Final user price fluctuations are shown to be induced by transformation differences and competition; natural gas market is also modelled

The effect of lake water quality and wind turbines on Rhode Island property sales price

Science.gov (United States)

Gorelick, Susan Shim

This dissertation uses the hedonic pricing model to study the impact of lake water quality and wind turbines on Rhode Island house sales prices. The first two manuscripts are on lake water quality and use RI house sales transactions from 1988--2012. The third studies wind turbines using RI house sales transactions from 2000--2013. The first study shows that good lake water quality increases lakefront property price premium. It also shows that environmental amenities, such as forests, substitute for lake amenity as the property's distance from the lake increases. The second lake water quality study incorporates time variables to examine how environmental amenity values change over time. The results show that property price premium associated with good lake water quality does not change as it is constant in proportion to housing prices with short term economic fluctuations. The third study shows that wind turbines have a negative and significant impact on housing prices. However, this is highly location specific and varies with neighborhood demographics. All three studies have policy implications which are discussed in detail in the manuscripts below.

Electricity spot price dynamics: Beyond financial models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guthrie, Graeme; Videbeck, Steen

2007-01-01

We reveal properties of electricity spot prices that cannot be captured by the statistical models, commonly used to model financial asset prices, that are increasingly used to model electricity prices. Using more than eight years of half-hourly spot price data from the New Zealand Electricity Market, we find that the half-hourly trading periods fall naturally into five groups corresponding to the overnight off-peak, the morning peak, daytime off-peak, evening peak, and evening off-peak. The prices in different trading periods within each group are highly correlated with each other, yet the correlations between prices in different groups are lower. Models, adopted from the modeling of security prices, that are currently applied to electricity spot prices are incapable of capturing this behavior. We use a periodic autoregression to model prices instead, showing that shocks in the peak periods are larger and less persistent than those in off-peak periods, and that they often reappear in the following peak period. In contrast, shocks in the off-peak periods are smaller, more persistent, and die out (perhaps temporarily) during the peak periods. Current approaches to modeling spot prices cannot capture this behavior either. (author)

Electricity price modeling with stochastic time change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Borovkova, Svetlana; Schmeck, Maren Diane

2017-01-01

In this paper, we develop a novel approach to electricity price modeling, based on the powerful technique of stochastic time change. This technique allows us to incorporate the characteristic features of electricity prices (such as seasonal volatility, time varying mean reversion and seasonally occurring price spikes) into the model in an elegant and economically justifiable way. The stochastic time change introduces stochastic as well as deterministic (e.g., seasonal) features in the price process' volatility and in the jump component. We specify the base process as a mean reverting jump diffusion and the time change as an absolutely continuous stochastic process with seasonal component. The activity rate of the stochastic time change can be related to the factors that influence supply and demand. Here we use the temperature as a proxy for the demand and hence, as the driving factor of the stochastic time change, and show that this choice leads to realistic price paths. We derive properties of the resulting price process and develop the model calibration procedure. We calibrate the model to the historical EEX power prices and apply it to generating realistic price paths by Monte Carlo simulations. We show that the simulated price process matches the distributional characteristics of the observed electricity prices in periods of both high and low demand. - Highlights: • We develop a novel approach to electricity price modeling, based on the powerful technique of stochastic time change. • We incorporate the characteristic features of electricity prices, such as seasonal volatility and spikes into the model. • We use the temperature as a proxy for the demand and hence, as the driving factor of the stochastic time change • We derive properties of the resulting price process and develop the model calibration procedure. • We calibrate the model to the historical EEX power prices and apply it to generating realistic price paths.

Modeling the Effect of Oil Price on Global Fertilizer Prices

NARCIS (Netherlands)

P-Y. Chen (Ping-Yu); C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); C-C. Chen (Chi-Chung); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

2010-01-01

textabstractThe main purpose of this paper is to evaluate the effect of crude oil price on global fertilizer prices in both the mean and volatility. The endogenous structural breakpoint unit root test, the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, and alternative volatility models, including the

Space-time modeling of electricity spot prices

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Abate, Girum Dagnachew; Haldrup, Niels

In this paper we derive a space-time model for electricity spot prices. A general spatial Durbin model that incorporates the temporal as well as spatial lags of spot prices is presented. Joint modeling of space-time effects is necessarily important when prices and loads are determined in a network...... in the spot price dynamics. Estimation of the spatial Durbin model show that the spatial lag variable is as important as the temporal lag variable in describing the spot price dynamics. We use the partial derivatives impact approach to decompose the price impacts into direct and indirect effects and we show...... that price effects transmit to neighboring markets and decline with distance. In order to examine the evolution of the spatial correlation over time, a time varying parameters spot price spatial Durbin model is estimated using recursive estimation. It is found that the spatial correlation within the Nord...

A hybrid model for electricity spot prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anderson, C.L.D.

2004-01-01

Electricity prices were highly regulated prior to the deregulation of the electric power industry. Prices were predictable, allowing generators and wholesalers to calculate their production costs and revenues. With deregulation, electricity has become the most volatile of all commodities. Electricity must be consumed as soon as it is generated due to the inability to store it in any sufficient quantity. Economic uncertainty exists because the supply of electricity cannot shift as quickly as the demand, which is highly variable. When demand increases quickly, the price must respond. Therefore, price spikes occur that are orders of magnitude higher than the base electricity price. This paper presents a robust and realistic model for spot market electricity prices used to manage risk in volatile markets. The model is a hybrid of a top down data driven method commonly used for financial applications, and a bottom up system driven method commonly used in regulated electricity markets. The advantage of the model is that it incorporates primary system drivers and demonstrates their effects on final prices. The 4 primary modules of the model are: (1) a model for forced outages, (2) a model for maintenance outages, (3) an electrical load model, and (4) a price model which combines the results of the previous 3 models. The performance of each model was tested. The forced outage model is the first of its kind to simulate the system on an aggregate basis using Weibull distributions. The overall spot price model was calibrated to, and tested with, data from the electricity market in Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Maryland. The model performed well in simulated market prices and adapted readily to changing system conditions and new electricity markets. This study examined the pricing of derivative contracts on electrical power. It also compared a range of portfolio scenarios using a Cash Flow at Risk approach

A hybrid model for electricity spot prices

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Anderson, C.L.D.

2004-07-01

Electricity prices were highly regulated prior to the deregulation of the electric power industry. Prices were predictable, allowing generators and wholesalers to calculate their production costs and revenues. With deregulation, electricity has become the most volatile of all commodities. Electricity must be consumed as soon as it is generated due to the inability to store it in any sufficient quantity. Economic uncertainty exists because the supply of electricity cannot shift as quickly as the demand, which is highly variable. When demand increases quickly, the price must respond. Therefore, price spikes occur that are orders of magnitude higher than the base electricity price. This paper presents a robust and realistic model for spot market electricity prices used to manage risk in volatile markets. The model is a hybrid of a top down data driven method commonly used for financial applications, and a bottom up system driven method commonly used in regulated electricity markets. The advantage of the model is that it incorporates primary system drivers and demonstrates their effects on final prices. The 4 primary modules of the model are: (1) a model for forced outages, (2) a model for maintenance outages, (3) an electrical load model, and (4) a price model which combines the results of the previous 3 models. The performance of each model was tested. The forced outage model is the first of its kind to simulate the system on an aggregate basis using Weibull distributions. The overall spot price model was calibrated to, and tested with, data from the electricity market in Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Maryland. The model performed well in simulated market prices and adapted readily to changing system conditions and new electricity markets. This study examined the pricing of derivative contracts on electrical power. It also compared a range of portfolio scenarios using a Cash Flow at Risk approach.

Importance of Managing for Personal Benefits, Hedonic and Utilitarian Motivations, and Place Attachment at an Urban Natural Setting.

Science.gov (United States)

Budruk, Megha; Lee, Woojin

2016-09-01

Research on antecedents of place attachment suggests that the special bonds people form with nature are influenced by a number of variables. This study examines associations between the perceived importance of managing for personal benefits, motivations, and place attachment among outdoor recreationists at an urban natural setting. Motivation was conceptualized as two-dimensional (Hedonic and Utilitarian) borrowed from the retail and consumer marketing field and previously unused in a natural resource recreation context. Hedonic and utilitarian motivations represent the experiential and functional dimensions of motivation, respectively. Relationships between the noted variables were examined through structural equation modeling. Data from an onsite survey of 219 users indicated that it was important the resource be managed to provide greater freedom from urban living as well as improved mental well-being. Furthermore, respondents exhibited moderate levels of hedonic and utilitarian motivations as well as attachment to the resource. The structural equation analysis resulted in a good fitting model with several significant relationships emerging. Among these, the perceived importance of managing for personal benefits positively influenced hedonic and utilitarian motivations. In addition, hedonic motivations positively influenced place attachment development, whereas utilitarian motivations did not. Implications of these findings are discussed.

Importance of Managing for Personal Benefits, Hedonic and Utilitarian Motivations, and Place Attachment at an Urban Natural Setting

Science.gov (United States)

Budruk, Megha; Lee, Woojin

2016-09-01

Research on antecedents of place attachment suggests that the special bonds people form with nature are influenced by a number of variables. This study examines associations between the perceived importance of managing for personal benefits, motivations, and place attachment among outdoor recreationists at an urban natural setting. Motivation was conceptualized as two-dimensional (Hedonic and Utilitarian) borrowed from the retail and consumer marketing field and previously unused in a natural resource recreation context. Hedonic and utilitarian motivations represent the experiential and functional dimensions of motivation, respectively. Relationships between the noted variables were examined through structural equation modeling. Data from an onsite survey of 219 users indicated that it was important the resource be managed to provide greater freedom from urban living as well as improved mental well-being. Furthermore, respondents exhibited moderate levels of hedonic and utilitarian motivations as well as attachment to the resource. The structural equation analysis resulted in a good fitting model with several significant relationships emerging. Among these, the perceived importance of managing for personal benefits positively influenced hedonic and utilitarian motivations. In addition, hedonic motivations positively influenced place attachment development, whereas utilitarian motivations did not. Implications of these findings are discussed.

Investigating the effects of service quality and hedonic on behavioral intentions: An empirical survey on restaurant industry

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Seyed Hossein Mansouri

2013-10-01

Full Text Available This research proposes a comprehensive model that investigates the relationships between service quality, hedonic, perceived value and behavioral intentions. The purpose of this study is to build a better understanding of the determinants of customer satisfaction and customer loyalty throughout the restaurant services by incorporating the perceptions of hedonic effect in service delivery and outlining why and how service quality is important to customer satisfaction and customer loyalty. Respondents were chosen from three regular customers of Atawich chain restaurants in city of Tehran by using stratified random sampling method. A total of 390 questionnaires were used for data analysis. Structural equations modeling by using LISREL was performed to empirically test the relationships between the constructs of this study. Results show that both service quality and hedonic effect are importance predictors of customer satisfaction in Iranian society. In addition, results indicate that service quality and hedonic effect have positive and significant effects on perceived value. However, relationship between customer satisfaction and perceived value with attitudinal loyalty was not significant. Finally, it suggests that restaurant managers should improve their restaurant service offerings to satisfy customers. In addition, the results emphasize the significance of hedonic effect and positive emotions in creating perceived value and customer satisfaction.

A hardness result for core stability in additive hedonic games

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Woeginger, G.J.

2013-01-01

We investigate the computational complexity of a decision problem in hedonic coalition formation games. We prove that core stability in additive hedonic games is complete for the second level of the polynomial hierarchy.

Correlation between hedonic liking and facial expression measurement using dynamic affective response representation.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhi, Ruicong; Wan, Jingwei; Zhang, Dezheng; Li, Weiping

2018-06-01

Emotional reactions towards products play an essential role in consumers' decision making, and are more important than rational evaluation of sensory attributes. It is crucial to understand consumers' emotion, and the relationship between sensory properties, human liking and choice. There are many inconsistencies between Asian and Western consumers in the usage of hedonic scale, as well as the intensity of facial reactions, due to different culture and consuming habits. However, very few studies discussed the facial responses characteristics of Asian consumers during food consumption. In this paper, explicit liking measurement (hedonic scale) and implicit emotional measurement (facial expressions) were evaluated to judge the consumers' emotions elicited by five types of juices. The contributions of this study included: (1) Constructed the relationship model between hedonic liking and facial expressions analyzed by face reading technology. Negative emotions "sadness", "anger", and "disgust" showed noticeable high negative correlation tendency to hedonic scores. The "liking" hedonic scores could be characterized by positive emotion "happiness". (2) Several emotional intensity based parameters, especially dynamic parameter, were extracted to describe the facial characteristic in sensory evaluation procedure. Both amplitude information and frequency information were involved in the dynamic parameters to remain more information of the emotional responses signals. From the comparison of four types of emotional descriptive parameters, the maximum parameter and dynamic parameter were suggested to be utilized for representing emotional state and intensities. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Essays on pricing dynamics, price dispersion, and nested logit modelling

Science.gov (United States)

Verlinda, Jeremy Alan

The body of this dissertation comprises three standalone essays, presented in three respective chapters. Chapter One explores the possibility that local market power contributes to the asymmetric relationship observed between wholesale costs and retail prices in gasoline markets. I exploit an original data set of weekly gas station prices in Southern California from September 2002 to May 2003, and take advantage of highly detailed station and local market-level characteristics to determine the extent to which spatial differentiation influences price-response asymmetry. I find that brand identity, proximity to rival stations, bundling and advertising, operation type, and local market features and demographics each influence a station's predicted asymmetric relationship between prices and wholesale costs. Chapter Two extends the existing literature on the effect of market structure on price dispersion in airline fares by modeling the effect at the disaggregate ticket level. Whereas past studies rely on aggregate measures of price dispersion such as the Gini coefficient or the standard deviation of fares, this paper estimates the entire empirical distribution of airline fares and documents how the shape of the distribution is determined by market structure. Specifically, I find that monopoly markets favor a wider distribution of fares with more mass in the tails while duopoly and competitive markets exhibit a tighter fare distribution. These findings indicate that the dispersion of airline fares may result from the efforts of airlines to practice second-degree price discrimination. Chapter Three adopts a Bayesian approach to the problem of tree structure specification in nested logit modelling, which requires a heavy computational burden in calculating marginal likelihoods. I compare two different techniques for estimating marginal likelihoods: (1) the Laplace approximation, and (2) reversible jump MCMC. I apply the techniques to both a simulated and a travel mode

Wind Energy Facilities and Residential Properties: The Effect of Proximity and View on Sales Prices

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hoen, Ben; Wiser, Ryan; Cappers, Peter; Thayer, Mark; Sethi, Gautam

2010-04-01

With wind energy expanding rapidly in the U.S. and abroad, and with an increasing number of communities considering nearby wind power developments, there is a need to empirically investigate community concerns about wind project development. One such concern is that property values may be adversely affected by wind energy facilities, and relatively little existing research exists on the subject. The present research is based on almost 7,500 sales of single-family homes situated within ten miles of 24 existing wind facilities in nine different U.S. states. The conclusions of the study are drawn from four different hedonic pricing models. The model results are consistent in that neither the view of the wind facilities nor the distance of the home to those facilities is found to have a statistically significant effect on home sales prices.

Using an innovative price model to leverage the business model – The case of price model innovation in the largest Swedish taxi company

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Carl-Johan Petri

2014-08-01

Full Text Available Purpose: The purpose of the paper is to describe how the biggest Swedish taxi company (Taxi Kurir developed an innovative price model to leverage the business model. Design/methodology/approach : The empirical data in the article describe Taxi Kurir’s development of a new price model. Data about the Swedish taxi market and about Taxi Kurir has been compiled though interviews and document studies. Detailed information about the background, development and implementation of Taxi Kurir’s new price model has been captured through interviews with representatives from Taxi Kurir. Findings : Based on both the empirical example, and other investigations, we have found that a company can create substantial changes in their price model, by just changing some of its basic characteristics. A well designed price model can contribute to leveraging the intentions of the business model. Practical implications : Most academic and practical texts about business models consider pricing to be an important component. However, they typically do not refer to the specifics of the price- or revenue models. According to the literature review in this paper, and the empirical findings, the configuration of a company’s price model should be aligned with its business model. This will contribute to leveraging the business model. Originality/value: The Swedish taxi market is one of the most deregulated in the world. Differently from most other countries, any individual or company can start and operate a taxi business. This case offers a unique description on how the biggest company in the market responded to the competition by introducing a fundamentally new price model, by making a small change in one of the dimensions in their existing price model.

Hedonism and the choice of everyday activities.

Science.gov (United States)

Taquet, Maxime; Quoidbach, Jordi; de Montjoye, Yves-Alexandre; Desseilles, Martin; Gross, James J

2016-08-30

Most theories of motivation have highlighted that human behavior is guided by the hedonic principle, according to which our choices of daily activities aim to minimize negative affect and maximize positive affect. However, it is not clear how to reconcile this idea with the fact that people routinely engage in unpleasant yet necessary activities. To address this issue, we monitored in real time the activities and moods of over 28,000 people across an average of 27 d using a multiplatform smartphone application. We found that people's choices of activities followed a hedonic flexibility principle. Specifically, people were more likely to engage in mood-increasing activities (e.g., play sports) when they felt bad, and to engage in useful but mood-decreasing activities (e.g., housework) when they felt good. These findings clarify how hedonic considerations shape human behavior. They may explain how humans overcome the allure of short-term gains in happiness to maximize long-term welfare.

Expected commodity returns and pricing models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cortazar, Gonzalo; Kovacevic, Ivo; Schwartz, Eduardo S.

2015-01-01

Stochastic models of commodity prices have evolved considerably in terms of their structure and the number and interpretation of the state variables that model the underlying risk. Using multiple factors, different specifications and modern estimation techniques, these models have gained wide acceptance because of their success in accurately fitting the observed commodity futures' term structures and their dynamics. It is not well emphasized however that these models, in addition to providing the risk neutral distribution of future spot prices, also provide their true distribution. While the parameters of the risk neutral distribution are estimated more precisely and are usually statistically significant, some of the parameters of the true distribution are typically measured with large errors and are statistically insignificant. In this paper we argue that to increase the reliability of commodity pricing models, and therefore their use by practitioners, some of their parameters — in particular the risk premium parameters — should be obtained from other sources and we show that this can be done without losing any precision in the pricing of futures contracts. We show how the risk premium parameters can be obtained from estimations of expected futures returns and provide alternative procedures for estimating these expected futures returns. - Highlights: • Simple methodology to improve the performance of commodity pricing models • New information about commodity futures expected return is added to the estimation. • No significant effect in pricing futures contracts is observed. • More reliable commodity pricing model's expected returns are obtained. • Methodology is open to any expected futures return model preferred by practitioner

A COUNTY-LEVEL MODEL OF MANUFACTURING PLANT RECRUITMENT WITH IMPROVED INDUSTRIAL SITE QUALITY MEASUREMENT

OpenAIRE

Kriesel, Warren; McNamara, Kevin T.

1991-01-01

Empirical analysis of manufacturing plant location requires the use of a single industrial site quality measure. Under hedonic price theory, the price of industrial sites can be explained by their quality characteristics. The estimated site price is included with ten other location factors in an ordered, categorical logit model of plant attraction to Georgia counties. The results inform public decision-makers of the relative impact of site location factors and how changes in location factors ...

The Shuttle Cost and Price model

Science.gov (United States)

Leary, Katherine; Stone, Barbara

1983-01-01

The Shuttle Cost and Price (SCP) model was developed as a tool to assist in evaluating major aspects of Shuttle operations that have direct and indirect economic consequences. It incorporates the major aspects of NASA Pricing Policy and corresponds to the NASA definition of STS operating costs. An overview of the SCP model is presented and the cost model portion of SCP is described in detail. Selected recent applications of the SCP model to NASA Pricing Policy issues are presented.

Methodological proposals for estimating the price of climate in France

Science.gov (United States)

Joly, D.; Brossard, T.; Cardot, H.; Cavailhes, J.; Hilal, M.; Wavresky, P.

2009-09-01

A current project linking economists, geographers and mathematicians evaluates the price of climate in France. The economic data are mainly from housing surveys conducted by the INSEE. It consists in a total of 9,640 buyers of single-detached houses, 2,658 buyers of apartments, 3,447 tenants of single-detached houses and 8,615 tenants of apartments. Each transaction is located in space by X-Y geographical coordinates. The climatic data are derived from the Meteo-France data base (normal 1970-2000). They are related to (1) mean annual temperature, (2) mean temperature for January and July, (3) number of days with temperatures of less than -5 °C in January and more than 30 °C in July, (4) mean monthly rainfall, (5) rainfall in January and July, (6) number of days' precipitation in January and July. These data are recorded by a network of scattered weather stations. A raster GIS composed by ten data layers derived from a DEM and remote sensing images at 250 m resolution is used to initiate interpolations. Four types of interpolation techniques were tested. First we used regressions between climatic data (variables to be explained) and explanatory variables stored into the GIS. Second we used ordinary kriging; third a double step method linking regression and then kriging of the regression residuals. Finally we used a local interpolation method. Based on standard deviation values obtained by cross validation and R² values, the comparison between the four methods shows that the last one reduces the residuals to the minimum and explains the maximum of variance. It was retained in our project to compute continuous field of the climatic data. The predicted values are then merged with the housing survey data. We use the hedonic price method (Rosen, 1974) to determine the price of climatic attributes, which are capitalized in land rents. Three econometric methods are used: a fixed-effects model estimated by OLS or PLS method and a mixed model with random intercepts. The

Customer perspectives on district heating price models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kerstin Sernhed

2017-01-01

Full Text Available In Sweden there has been a move towards more cost reflective price models for district heating in order to reduce economic risks that comes with variable heat demand and high shares of fixed assets. The keywords in the new price models are higher shares of fixed cost, seasonal energy prices and charging for capacity. Also components that are meant to serve as incentives to affect behaviour are introduced, for example peak load components and flow components. In this study customer responses to these more complex price models have been investigated through focus group interviews and through interviews with companies that have changed their price models. The results show that several important customer requirements are suffering with the new price models. The most important ones are when energy savings do not provide financial savings, when costs are hard to predict and are perceived to be out of control.

Hedonic Consumption in Purchasing Mobile Phone: Adana Sample

OpenAIRE

Çelik, Onur

2017-01-01

In traditional marketing perspective aim at satisfying consumers concrete needs, but in modern marketing try to satisfy consumers needs which is not concrete. These expectations of consumers have taken place in marketing literature as hedonic consumption. In this study, the position of hedonic consumption in consumers behaviours while buying mobile phones is aimed to identify. Also it is trying to understand that this situation is changeable or not according to demographic variables and brand...

Estimating local, organic, and other price premiums of shell eggs in Hawaii.

Science.gov (United States)

Loke, Matthew K; Xu, Xun; Leung, PingSun

2016-05-01

Hedonic modeling and retail scanner data were utilized to investigate the influence of local, organic, nutrition benefits, and other attributes of shell eggs on retail price premium in Hawaii. Within a revealed preference framework, the analysis of local and organic attributes, simultaneously, under a single unified setting is important, as such work is highly deficient in the published literature. This paper finds high to moderate price premiums in four key attributes of shell eggs - organic (64%), local (40%), nutrition benefits claimed (33%), and brown shell (18.4%). Large and extra-large sized eggs also experience price premiums over medium sized eggs. With each larger packing size, the estimated coefficients were negative, indicating a price discount, relative to the baseline packing size. However, there is no evidence to support the overwhelming influence of "local" over "organic", as hypothesized in other research work. Overall, the findings in this paper suggest industry producers and retailers should highlight and market effusively the primary attributes of their shell eggs, including "local", to remain competitive in the marketplace. Effective communication channels are crucial to delivering the product information, capturing the attention of consumers, and securing retail sales. © 2016 Poultry Science Association Inc.

Nash Stability in Additively Separable Hedonic Games and Community Structures

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Olsen, Martin

2009-01-01

  We prove that the problem of deciding whether a Nash stable   partition exists in an Additively Separable Hedonic Game is   NP-complete. We also show that the problem of deciding whether a   non trivial Nash stable partition exists in an   Additively Separable Hedonic Game with   non......-negative and symmetric   preferences is NP-complete. We motivate our study of the   computational complexity by linking Nash stable partitions in   Additively Separable Hedonic Games to community structures in   networks. Our results formally justify that computing community   structures in general is hard....

Modelling the impact of oil prices on Vietnam's stock prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Narayan, Paresh Kumar; Narayan, Seema

2010-01-01

The goal of this paper is to model the impact of oil prices on Vietnam's stock prices. We use daily data for the period 2000-2008 and include the nominal exchange rate as an additional determinant of stock prices. We find that stock prices, oil prices and nominal exchange rates are cointegrated, and oil prices have a positive and statistically significant impact on stock prices. This result is inconsistent with theoretical expectations. The growth of the Vietnamese stock market was accompanied by rising oil prices. However, the boom of the stock market was marked by increasing foreign portfolio investment inflows which are estimated to have doubled from US$0.9 billion in 2005 to US$1.9 billion in 2006. There was also a change in preferences from holding foreign currencies and domestic bank deposits to stocks local market participants, and there was a rise in leveraged investment in stock as well as investments on behalf of relatives living abroad. It seems that the impact of these internal and domestic factors were more dominant than the oil price rise on the Vietnamese stock market. (author)

Segmenting wine markets with diverse price functions: Evidence from California red and white wines sold in British Columbia

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Richard Carew

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Previous hedonic price studies on wine market segments, exploring diverse price functions, are constrained by pre-determined price breakpoints, the total number of segments, or both. Using British Columbia Liquor Distribution Branch (BCLDB retail price data of California red and white wines, this study adopts an endogenous approach to explore the total number of market segments and identify breakpoints in price dispersion simultaneously. Results show that red and white California wines are grouped into two (breaking at Can$14 per bottle and three (breaking at Can$16 and $30 per bottle price segments, respectively. Also, implicit prices of wine attributes such as grape variety and geographic origin differ for red and white wines across market segments.

Modeling spot markets for electricity and pricing electricity derivatives

Science.gov (United States)

Ning, Yumei

Spot prices for electricity have been very volatile with dramatic price spikes occurring in restructured market. The task of forecasting electricity prices and managing price risk presents a new challenge for market players. The objectives of this dissertation are: (1) to develop a stochastic model of price behavior and predict price spikes; (2) to examine the effect of weather forecasts on forecasted prices; (3) to price electricity options and value generation capacity. The volatile behavior of prices can be represented by a stochastic regime-switching model. In the model, the means of the high-price and low-price regimes and the probabilities of switching from one regime to the other are specified as functions of daily peak load. The probability of switching to the high-price regime is positively related to load, but is still not high enough at the highest loads to predict price spikes accurately. An application of this model shows how the structure of the Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland market changed when market-based offers were allowed, resulting in higher price spikes. An ARIMA model including temperature, seasonal, and weekly effects is estimated to forecast daily peak load. Forecasts of load under different assumptions about weather patterns are used to predict changes of price behavior given the regime-switching model of prices. Results show that the range of temperature forecasts from a normal summer to an extremely warm summer cause relatively small increases in temperature (+1.5%) and load (+3.0%). In contrast, the increases in prices are large (+20%). The conclusion is that the seasonal outlook forecasts provided by NOAA are potentially valuable for predicting prices in electricity markets. The traditional option models, based on Geometric Brownian Motion are not appropriate for electricity prices. An option model using the regime-switching framework is developed to value a European call option. The model includes volatility risk and allows changes

Hedonic Changes in Food Choices Following Roux-en-Y Gastric Bypass.

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Hansen, Thea Toft; Jakobsen, Tine Anette; Nielsen, Mette Søndergaard; Sjödin, Anders; Le Roux, Carel W; Schmidt, Julie Berg

2016-08-01

It has been suggested that a shift in food choices leading to a diet with a lower energy density plays an important role in successful weight loss after Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGB) surgery. A decreased hedonic drive to consume highly palatable foods may explain these changes in eating behavior. Here, we review the literature examining postoperative changes in mechanisms contributing to hedonic drive (food preferences, reinforcing value of food, dopamine signaling, and activity reward-related brain regions). The majority of studies reviewed support that RYGB decrease the hedonic drive to consume highly palatable foods. Still, in order to fully understand the complexity of these changes, we need studies combining sociological and psychological approaches with objective measures of actual food choices examining different measures of hedonic drive.

The Influence of Negative Surprise on Hedonic Adaptation

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Ana Paula Kieling

2016-01-01

Full Text Available After some time using a product or service, the consumer tends to feel less pleasure with consumption. This reduction of pleasure is known as hedonic adaptation. One of the emotions that interfere in this process is surprise. Based on two experiments, we suggest that negative surprise – differently to positive – influences with the level of pleasure foreseen and experienced by the consumer. Study 1 analyzes the influence of negative (vs. positive surprise on the consumer’s post-purchase hedonic adaptation expectation. Results showed that negative surprise influences the intensity of adaptation, augmenting its strength. Study 2 verifies the influence of negative (vs positive surprise over hedonic adaptation. The findings suggested that negative surprise makes adaptation happen more intensively and faster as time goes by, which brings consequences to companies and consumers in the post-purchase process, such as satisfaction and loyalty.

Is there a price premium for energy efficiency labels? Evidence from the Introduction of a Label in Korea

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Park, Ju Young

2017-01-01

This study examines the price premium from Korea's Energy Efficiency Grade Label. The Korean government recently began energy certification of televisions, providing a setting to analyze a possible price effect of the new label. Hedonic regression results seem to show that a price premium exists for products with the Energy Efficiency Grade Label. However, potential unobserved heterogeneity is a concern. Difference-in-difference and fixed-effects models are used to capture the net effect of the label by controlling for time and product differences. The results suggest that any price premium does not result from the energy efficiency label itself. Instead, energy-efficient products already had higher prices before the introduction of the energy efficiency label. The finding turns our attention to the importance of careful design of labeling programs. - Highlights: • The study examines the price premium from Korea's Energy Efficiency Grade Label. • Difference-in-difference and fixed-effects models are used to address potential unobserved heterogeneity and to capture the net effect of the label by controlling for time and product differences. • The result suggests that any price premium does not result from the energy efficiency label itself; instead, energy-efficient products already have higher prices before the introduction of the energy efficiency label. • The finding turns our attention to the importance of careful design of labeling programs.

Documentation of the Retail Price Model

Science.gov (United States)

The Retail Price Model (RPM) provides a first‐order estimate of average retail electricity prices using information from the EPA Base Case v.5.13 Base Case or other scenarios for each of the 64 Integrated Planing Model (IPM) regions.

Modeling and simulating industrial land-use evolution in Shanghai, China

Science.gov (United States)

Qiu, Rongxu; Xu, Wei; Zhang, John; Staenz, Karl

2018-01-01

This study proposes a cellular automata-based Industrial and Residential Land Use Competition Model to simulate the dynamic spatial transformation of industrial land use in Shanghai, China. In the proposed model, land development activities in a city are delineated as competitions among different land-use types. The Hedonic Land Pricing Model is adopted to implement the competition framework. To improve simulation results, the Land Price Agglomeration Model was devised to simulate and adjust classic land price theory. A new evolutionary algorithm-based parameter estimation method was devised in place of traditional methods. Simulation results show that the proposed model closely resembles actual land transformation patterns and the model can not only simulate land development, but also redevelopment processes in metropolitan areas.

Time perspectives and convenience food consumption among teenagers in Vietnam: The dual role of hedonic and healthy eating values.

Science.gov (United States)

Olsen, Svein Ottar; Tuu, Ho Huy

2017-09-01

This study uses the subscales of Consideration of Future Consequences (CFC) to explore the effects of future (CFC-future) and immediate (CFC-immediate) on convenience food consumption among teenagers in Vietnam. Furthermore, we investigate the mediating and dual role of hedonic and healthy eating values in the relationships between CFCs and convenience food consumption. Survey data from 451 teenagers in Central Vietnam and structural equation modelling were used to test the relationships in a proposed theoretical model. The results indicate that while CFC-immediate and hedonic eating value has a positive direct effect, CFC-future and healthy eating value has a negative direct effect on convenience food consumption. The findings also reveal that both CFC-immediate and CFC-future have positive effects on hedonic and healthy eating values. However, this study argues and tests the relative importance of the direct (asymmetric) effects of time perspectives on eating values, and finds that while CFC-future dominate in explaining healthy eating values, CFC-immediate dominate in explaining hedonic eating values. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Price models for oil derivates in Slovenia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nemac, F.; Saver, A.

1995-01-01

In Slovenia, a law is currently applied according to which any change in the price of oil derivatives is subject to the Governmental approval. Following the target of getting closer to the European Union, the necessity has arisen of finding ways for the introduction of liberalization or automated approach to price modifications depending on oscillations of oil derivative prices on the world market and the rate of exchange of the American dollar. It is for this reason that at the Agency for Energy Restructuring we made a study for the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Development regarding this issue. We analysed the possible models for the formation of oil derivative prices for Slovenia. Based on the assessment of experiences of primarily the west European countries, we proposed three models for the price formation for Slovenia. In future, it is expected that the Government of the Republic of Slovenia will make a selection of one of the proposed models to be followed by enforcement of price liberalization. The paper presents two representative models for price formation as used in Austria and Portugal. In the continuation the authors analyse the application of three models that they find suitable for the use in Slovenia. (author)

Research on nonlinear stochastic dynamical price model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li Jiaorui; Xu Wei; Xie Wenxian; Ren Zhengzheng

2008-01-01

In consideration of many uncertain factors existing in economic system, nonlinear stochastic dynamical price model which is subjected to Gaussian white noise excitation is proposed based on deterministic model. One-dimensional averaged Ito stochastic differential equation for the model is derived by using the stochastic averaging method, and applied to investigate the stability of the trivial solution and the first-passage failure of the stochastic price model. The stochastic price model and the methods presented in this paper are verified by numerical studies

Comparison of extended mean-reversion and time series models for electricity spot price simulation considering negative prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Keles, Dogan; Genoese, Massimo; Möst, Dominik; Fichtner, Wolf

2012-01-01

This paper evaluates different financial price and time series models, such as mean reversion, autoregressive moving average (ARMA), integrated ARMA (ARIMA) and general autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) process, usually applied for electricity price simulations. However, as these models are developed to describe the stochastic behaviour of electricity prices, they are extended by a separate data treatment for the deterministic components (trend, daily, weekly and annual cycles) of electricity spot prices. Furthermore price jumps are considered and implemented within a regime-switching model. Since 2008 market design allows for negative prices at the European Energy Exchange, which also occurred for several hours in the last years. Up to now, only a few financial and time series approaches exist, which are able to capture negative prices. This paper presents a new approach incorporating negative prices. The evaluation of the different approaches presented points out that the mean reversion and the ARMA models deliver the lowest mean root square error between simulated and historical electricity spot prices gained from the European Energy Exchange. These models posses also lower mean average errors than GARCH models. Hence, they are more suitable to simulate well-fitting price paths. Furthermore it is shown that the daily structure of historical price curves is better captured applying ARMA or ARIMA processes instead of mean-reversion or GARCH models. Another important outcome of the paper is that the regime-switching approach and the consideration of negative prices via the new proposed approach lead to a significant improvement of the electricity price simulation. - Highlights: ► Considering negative prices improves the results of time-series and financial models for electricity prices. ► Regime-switching approach captures the jumps and base prices quite well. ► Removing and separate modelling of deterministic annual, weekly and daily

Park Accessibility Impacts Housing Prices in Seoul

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jin Han Park

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Housing prices are determined by a variety of factors, including the features of the building and the neighborhood environment, and a potential buyer decides to buy a house after reviewing these factors and concluding that it is worth the price. We used Hedonic Price Methods to find the relationship between monetary value of house and access conditions to urban parks. Two meaningful results were discovered in this study: first, as the distance from the park increases, the value of the park inherent in the housing price decreases; second, the greater walking accessibility, to the park, the higher the park value inherent in housing prices. Despite presenting shorter distances to walk and more entrances, poorly accessible zones were deemed as such due to the necessity of crossing an arterial road. This indicates that the results can define accessibility not as the Euclidian distance but as the shortest walking distance while considering crossroads and park entrances. The results of this study have significant implications for urban park economic impact analyses in Seoul. Also, the increase in housing prices closer to parks supports the idea that access is dependent on the residents’ socioeconomic status. Lastly, the results of this study can improve walking accessibility to the park.

SaaS architecture and pricing models

OpenAIRE

Laatikainen, Gabriella; Ojala, Arto

2014-01-01

In the new era of computing, SaaS software with different architectural characteristics might be priced in different ways. Even though both pricing and architectural characteristics are responsible for the success of the offering; the relationship between architectural and pricing characteristics has not been studied before. The present study fills this gap by employing a multi-case research. The findings accentuate that flexible and well-designed architecture enables different pricing models...

Food Prices and Climate Extremes: A Model of Global Grain Price Variability with Storage

Science.gov (United States)

Otto, C.; Schewe, J.; Frieler, K.

2015-12-01

Extreme climate events such as droughts, floods, or heat waves affect agricultural production in major cropping regions and therefore impact the world market prices of staple crops. In the last decade, crop prices exhibited two very prominent price peaks in 2007-2008 and 2010-2011, threatening food security especially for poorer countries that are net importers of grain. There is evidence that these spikes in grain prices were at least partly triggered by actual supply shortages and the expectation of bad harvests. However, the response of the market to supply shocks is nonlinear and depends on complex and interlinked processes such as warehousing, speculation, and trade policies. Quantifying the contributions of such different factors to short-term price variability remains difficult, not least because many existing models ignore the role of storage which becomes important on short timescales. This in turn impedes the assessment of future climate change impacts on food prices. Here, we present a simple model of annual world grain prices that integrates grain stocks into the supply and demand functions. This firstly allows us to model explicitly the effect of storage strategies on world market price, and thus, for the first time, to quantify the potential contribution of trade policies to price variability in a simple global framework. Driven only by reported production and by long--term demand trends of the past ca. 40 years, the model reproduces observed variations in both the global storage volume and price of wheat. We demonstrate how recent price peaks can be reproduced by accounting for documented changes in storage strategies and trade policies, contrasting and complementing previous explanations based on different mechanisms such as speculation. Secondly, we show how the integration of storage allows long-term projections of grain price variability under climate change, based on existing crop yield scenarios.

Pricing Models of e-Books When Competing with p-Books

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yan Li

2013-01-01

Full Text Available With the rise in popularity of e-books, there is a growing need to reexamine the pricing strategy in the e-book supply chain. In this paper, we study two forms of pricing models widely used in the book industry: wholesale and agency pricing models. We first assume a stylized deterministic demand model in which the demand depends on the price, the degree of substitution, and the overall market potential. Subsequently, we employ the game theory to determine the price equilibriums and profit distribution under different pricing models. Finally, we explore the behavior of the publisher and the retailer under different preferences and degrees of substitution through a computational study. Our findings indicate that the e-book price will be lower under the agency pricing model than under the wholesale pricing model, which is counterintuitive. The publishers have higher incentives to adopt the agency pricing model than the wholesale pricing model. The agency pricing model benefits the whole system and can provide readers with books at lower prices. The degree of substitution between the two forms of books and the readers’ preference toward e-book will affect the books’ price and the profit distribution between the publisher and the retailers.

Intermittent Theta Burst Stimulation Increases Reward Responsiveness in Individuals with Higher Hedonic Capacity.

Science.gov (United States)

Duprat, Romain; De Raedt, Rudi; Wu, Guo-Rong; Baeken, Chris

2016-01-01

Repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation over the left dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC) has been documented to influence striatal and orbitofrontal dopaminergic activity implicated in reward processing. However, the exact neuropsychological mechanisms of how DLPFC stimulation may affect the reward system and how trait hedonic capacity may interact with the effects remains to be elucidated. In this sham-controlled study in healthy individuals, we investigated the effects of a single session of neuronavigated intermittent theta burst stimulation (iTBS) on reward responsiveness, as well as the influence of trait hedonic capacity. We used a randomized crossover single session iTBS design with an interval of 1 week. We assessed reward responsiveness using a rewarded probabilistic learning task and measured individual trait hedonic capacity (the ability to experience pleasure) with the temporal experience of pleasure scale questionnaire. As expected, the participants developed a response bias toward the most rewarded stimulus (rich stimulus). Reaction time and accuracy for the rich stimulus were respectively shorter and higher as compared to the less rewarded stimulus (lean stimulus). Active or sham stimulation did not seem to influence the outcome. However, when taking into account individual trait hedonic capacity, we found an early significant increase in the response bias only after active iTBS. The higher the individual's trait hedonic capacity, the more the response bias toward the rich stimulus increased after the active stimulation. When taking into account trait hedonic capacity, one active iTBS session over the left DLPFC improved reward responsiveness in healthy male participants with higher hedonic capacity. This suggests that individual differences in hedonic capacity may influence the effects of iTBS on the reward system.

Triskaidekaphobia and North American Residential Real Estate Prices

OpenAIRE

James E. Larsen

2015-01-01

A previous study led its authors to conclude that superstition impacts price formation for single-family dwellings in the Vancouver area. Houses there with an address that ends in the ¡§unlucky¡¨ number 13 are found to sell at a discount compared to otherwise similar houses. The primary objective of this study is to determine whether the previous results apply in another North American housing market. Hedonic regression is applied to single-family house transactions that occurred in Montgomer...

Space-time modeling of timber prices

Science.gov (United States)

Mo Zhou; Joseph Buongriorno

2006-01-01

A space-time econometric model was developed for pine sawtimber timber prices of 21 geographically contiguous regions in the southern United States. The correlations between prices in neighboring regions helped predict future prices. The impulse response analysis showed that although southern pine sawtimber markets were not globally integrated, local supply and demand...

Metabolic vs. hedonic obesity: a conceptual distinction and its clinical implications

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Y.; Mechanick, J. I.; Korner, J.; Peterli, R.

2015-01-01

Summary Body weight is determined via both metabolic and hedonic mechanisms. Metabolic regulation of body weight centres around the ‘body weight set point’, which is programmed by energy balance circuitry in the hypothalamus and other specific brain regions. The metabolic body weight set point has a genetic basis, but exposure to an obesogenic environment may elicit allostatic responses and upward drift of the set point, leading to a higher maintained body weight. However, an elevated steady‐state body weight may also be achieved without an alteration of the metabolic set point, via sustained hedonic over‐eating, which is governed by the reward system of the brain and can override homeostatic metabolic signals. While hedonic signals are potent influences in determining food intake, metabolic regulation involves the active control of both food intake and energy expenditure. When overweight is due to elevation of the metabolic set point (‘metabolic obesity’), energy expenditure theoretically falls onto the standard energy–mass regression line. In contrast, when a steady‐state weight is above the metabolic set point due to hedonic over‐eating (‘hedonic obesity’), a persistent compensatory increase in energy expenditure per unit metabolic mass may be demonstrable. Recognition of the two types of obesity may lead to more effective treatment and prevention of obesity. PMID:25588316

Exploring the spatial variation in quality-adjusted rental prices and identifying hot spots in Berlin’s residential property market

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Meulen, Philipp an de; Mitze, Timo Friedel

2014-01-01

In this work, we use residual values obtained from an estimated hedonic pricing model to assess the role of district-level neighbourhood effects for the spatial variation in quality-adjusted rental prices in Berlin between 2008 and 2013. By doing so, we also aim at identifying hot and cold spots ...... analysis (ESDA) toolbox, we finally pinpoint particular hot spots of the city’s residential property market associated with a significant spatial clustering of similar rental price values around individual observations....... proximity to the city centre compared to similar properties in Berlin’s periphery once we control for the properties’ physical characteristics. The observed temporal evolution of the rental price distribution between 2008 and 2013 thereby hints at an ongoing gentrification process in Germany’s capital...... associated with the current housing market boom. This visual impression is also confirmed by the application of quantile regressions for a correlation analysis between quality-adjusted rental price values and Berlin district-level characteristics obtained from the last census in 2011. Among other factors, we...

Estimating the Performance of Random Forest versus Multiple Regression for Predicting Prices of the Apartments

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marjan Čeh

2018-05-01

Full Text Available The goal of this study is to analyse the predictive performance of the random forest machine learning technique in comparison to commonly used hedonic models based on multiple regression for the prediction of apartment prices. A data set that includes 7407 records of apartment transactions referring to real estate sales from 2008–2013 in the city of Ljubljana, the capital of Slovenia, was used in order to test and compare the predictive performances of both models. Apparent challenges faced during modelling included (1 the non-linear nature of the prediction assignment task; (2 input data being based on transactions occurring over a period of great price changes in Ljubljana whereby a 28% decline was noted in six consecutive testing years; and (3 the complex urban form of the case study area. Available explanatory variables, organised as a Geographic Information Systems (GIS ready dataset, including the structural and age characteristics of the apartments as well as environmental and neighbourhood information were considered in the modelling procedure. All performance measures (R2 values, sales ratios, mean average percentage error (MAPE, coefficient of dispersion (COD revealed significantly better results for predictions obtained by the random forest method, which confirms the prospective of this machine learning technique on apartment price prediction.

Wind Energy Facilities and Residential Properties: The Effect of Proximity and View on Sales Prices

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hoen, Ben; Wiser, Ryan; Cappers, Peter; Thayer, Mark; Sethi, Gautam

2010-04-01

With an increasing number of communities considering nearby wind power developments, there is a need to empirically investigate community concerns about wind project development. One such concern is that property values may be adversely affected by wind energy facilities, and relatively little research exists on the subject. The present research investigates roughly 7,500 sales of single-family homes surrounding 24 existing U.S. wind facilities. Across four different hedonic models the results are consistent: neither the view of the wind facilities nor the distance of the home to those facilities is found to have a statistically significant effect on home sales prices.

Wind Energy Facilities and Residential Properties: The Effect of Proximity and View on Sales Prices

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

San Diego State University; Bard Center for Environmental Policy at Bard College; Hoen, Ben; Wiser, Ryan; Cappers, Peter; Thayer, Mark; Sethi, Gautam

2011-06-23

With increasing numbers of communities considering wind power developments, empirical investigations regarding related community concerns are needed. One such concern is that proximate property values may be adversely affected, yet relatively little research exists on the subject. The present research investigates roughly 7,500 sales of single-family homes surrounding 24 existing U.S. wind facilities. Across four different hedonic models, and a variety of robustness tests, the results are consistent: neither the view of the wind facilities nor the distance of the home to those facilities is found to have a statistically significant effect on sales prices, yet further research is warranted.

Investigation of bias of hedonic scores when co-eliciting product attribute information using CATA questions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jaeger, Sara R.; Giacalone, Davide; Roigard, Cristina M.

2013-01-01

(appearance, aroma, flavour, taste, aftertaste, mouthfeel). The present research suggests that co-elicitation of hedonic scores and product attribute information using CATA questions may bias the hedonic scores, but not that it certainly will do so. This needs to be recognised, leading to more widespread......Sensory and consumer scientists disagree on the practice of concurrently obtaining sensory information in hedonic tests. This is in part due to different mindsets about what consumers are able to do and evidence that such co-elicitation may bias hedonic scores. Check-all-that-apply (CATA) questions...... have been claimed to have a smaller effect on hedonic scores than other attribute such as just-about-right or intensity scales. In this research, nine studies using consumers as participants examined effects on hedonic product scores when sensory attribute information was co-elicited using CATA...

A hybrid modeling approach for option pricing

Science.gov (United States)

Hajizadeh, Ehsan; Seifi, Abbas

2011-11-01

The complexity of option pricing has led many researchers to develop sophisticated models for such purposes. The commonly used Black-Scholes model suffers from a number of limitations. One of these limitations is the assumption that the underlying probability distribution is lognormal and this is so controversial. We propose a couple of hybrid models to reduce these limitations and enhance the ability of option pricing. The key input to option pricing model is volatility. In this paper, we use three popular GARCH type model for estimating volatility. Then, we develop two non-parametric models based on neural networks and neuro-fuzzy networks to price call options for S&P 500 index. We compare the results with those of Black-Scholes model and show that both neural network and neuro-fuzzy network models outperform Black-Scholes model. Furthermore, comparing the neural network and neuro-fuzzy approaches, we observe that for at-the-money options, neural network model performs better and for both in-the-money and an out-of-the money option, neuro-fuzzy model provides better results.

The Hedonic Haptics Player: A Wearable Device to Experience Vibrotactile Compositions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Boer, Laurens; Vallgårda, Anna; Cahill, Ben

2017-01-01

The Hedonic Haptics player is a portable wearable device that plays back vibrotactile compositions. It consists of three domes each of which houses a vibration motor providing vibrotactile sensations to the wearer. The domes are connected to a control unit the size of a small Walkman. The Hedonic...

EOQ model for perishable products with price-dependent demand, pre and post discounted selling price

Science.gov (United States)

Santhi, G.; Karthikeyan, K.

2017-11-01

In this article we introduce an economic order quantity model for perishable products like vegetables, fruits, milk, flowers, meat, etc.,with price-dependent demand, pre and post discounted selling price. Here we consider the demand is depending on selling price and deterioration rate is constant. Here we developed mathematical model to determine optimal discounton the unit selling price to maximize total profit. Numerical examples are given for illustrated.

Nonlinear price impact from linear models

Science.gov (United States)

Patzelt, Felix; Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe

2017-12-01

The impact of trades on asset prices is a crucial aspect of market dynamics for academics, regulators, and practitioners alike. Recently, universal and highly nonlinear master curves were observed for price impacts aggregated on all intra-day scales (Patzelt and Bouchaud 2017 arXiv:1706.04163). Here we investigate how well these curves, their scaling, and the underlying return dynamics are captured by linear ‘propagator’ models. We find that the classification of trades as price-changing versus non-price-changing can explain the price impact nonlinearities and short-term return dynamics to a very high degree. The explanatory power provided by the change indicator in addition to the order sign history increases with increasing tick size. To obtain these results, several long-standing technical issues for model calibration and testing are addressed. We present new spectral estimators for two- and three-point cross-correlations, removing the need for previously used approximations. We also show when calibration is unbiased and how to accurately reveal previously overlooked biases. Therefore, our results contribute significantly to understanding both recent empirical results and the properties of a popular class of impact models.

Cultural differences in hedonic emotion regulation after a negative event.

Science.gov (United States)

Miyamoto, Yuri; Ma, Xiaoming; Petermann, Amelia G

2014-08-01

Beliefs about emotions can influence how people regulate their emotions. The present research examined whether Eastern dialectical beliefs about negative emotions lead to cultural differences in how people regulate their emotions after experiencing a negative event. We hypothesized that, because of dialectical beliefs about negative emotions prevalent in Eastern culture, Easterners are less motivated than Westerners to engage in hedonic emotion regulation-up-regulation of positive emotions and down-regulation of negative emotions. By assessing online reactions to a recent negative event, Study 1 found that European Americans are more motivated to engage in hedonic emotion regulation. Furthermore, consistent with the reported motivation to regulate emotion hedonically, European Americans show a steeper decline in negative emotions 1 day later than do Asians. By examining retrospective memory of reactions to a past negative event, Study 2 further showed that cultural differences in hedonic emotion regulation are mediated by cultural differences in dialectical beliefs about motivational and cognitive utility of negative emotions, but not by personal deservingness or self-efficacy beliefs. These findings demonstrate the role of cultural beliefs in shaping emotion regulation and emotional experiences.

ADHD and Present Hedonism: time perspective as a potential diagnostic and therapeutic tool.

Science.gov (United States)

Weissenberger, S; Klicperova-Baker, M; Zimbardo, P; Schonova, K; Akotia, D; Kostal, J; Goetz, M; Raboch, J; Ptacek, R

2016-01-01

The article draws primarily from the behavioral findings (mainly psychiatric and psychological observations) and points out the important relationships between attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) symptoms and time orientation. Specifically, the authors argue that there is a significant overlap between the symptoms of ADHD and Present Hedonism. Present Hedonism is defined by Zimbardo's time perspective theory and assessed by Zimbardo Time Perspective Inventory. Developmental data on Present Hedonism of males and females in the Czech population sample (N=2201) are also presented. The hypothesis of relationship between ADHD and Present Hedonism is mainly derived from the prevalence of addictive behavior (mainly excessive Internet use, alcohol abuse, craving for sweets, fatty foods, and fast foods), deficits in social learning, and increased aggressiveness both in ADHD and in the population scoring high on Present Hedonism in the Zimbardo Time Perspective Inventory. We conclude that Zimbardo's time perspective offers both: 1) a potential diagnostic tool - the Zimbardo Time Perspective Inventory, particularly its Present Hedonism scale, and 2) a promising preventive and/or therapeutic approach by the Time Perspective Therapy. Time Perspective Therapy has so far been used mainly to treat past negative trauma (most notably, posttraumatic stress disorder); however, it also has value as a potential therapeutic tool for possible behavioral compensation of ADHD.

Estimating organic, local, and other price premiums in the Hawaii fluid milk market.

Science.gov (United States)

Loke, Matthew K; Xu, Xun; Leung, PingSun

2015-04-01

With retail scanner data, we applied hedonic price modeling to explore price premiums for organic, local, and other product attributes of fluid milk in Hawaii. Within the context of revealed preference, this analysis of organic and local attributes, under a single unified framework, is significant, as research in this area is deficient in the existing literature. This paper finds both organic and local attributes delivered price premiums over imported, conventional, whole fluid milk. However, the estimated price premium for organic milk (24.6%) is significantly lower than findings in the existing literature. Likewise, the price premium for the local attribute is estimated at 17.4%, again substantially lower compared with an earlier, stated preference study in Hawaii. Beyond that, we estimated a robust price premium of 19.7% for nutritional benefits claimed. The magnitude of this estimated coefficient reinforces the notion that nutrition information on food is deemed beneficial and valuable. Finally, package size measures the influence of product weight. With each larger package size, the estimate led to a corresponding larger price discount. This result is consistent with the practice of weight discounting that retailers usually offer with fresh packaged food. Additionally, we estimated a fairly high Armington elasticity of substitution, which suggests a relatively high degree of substitution between local and imported fluid milk when their relative price changes. Overall, this study establishes price premiums for organic, local, and nutrition benefits claimed for fluid milk in Hawaii. Copyright © 2015 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Effect of aging on hedonic appreciation of pleasant and unpleasant odors.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pauline Joussain

Full Text Available Does hedonic appreciation evolve differently for pleasant odors and unpleasant odors during normal aging? To answer this question we combined psychophysics and electro-encephalographic recordings in young and old adults. A first study showed that pleasant odorants (but not unpleasant ones were rated as less pleasant by old adults. A second study validated this decrease in hedonic appreciation for agreeable odors and further showed that smelling these odorants decreased beta event-related synchronization in aged participants. In conclusion, the study offers new insights into the evolution of odor hedonic perception during normal aging, highlighting for the first time a change in processing pleasant odors.

Modelling electricity futures prices using seasonal path-dependent volatility

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fanelli, Viviana; Maddalena, Lucia; Musti, Silvana

2016-01-01

Highlights: • A no-arbitrage term structure model is applied to the electricity market. • Volatility parameters of the HJM model are estimated by using German data. • The model captures the seasonal price behaviour. • Electricity futures prices are forecasted. • Call options are evaluated according to different strike prices. - Abstract: The liberalization of electricity markets gave rise to new patterns of futures prices and the need of models that could efficiently describe price dynamics grew exponentially, in order to improve decision making for all of the agents involved in energy issues. Although there are papers focused on modelling electricity as a flow commodity by using Heath et al. (1992) approach in order to price futures contracts, the literature is scarce on attempts to consider a seasonal volatility as input to models. In this paper, we propose a futures price model that allows looking into observed stylized facts in the electricity market, in particular stochastic price variability, and periodic behavior. We consider a seasonal path-dependent volatility for futures returns that are modelled in Heath et al. (1992) framework and we obtain the dynamics of futures prices. We use these series to price the underlying asset of a call option in a risk management perspective. We test the model on the German electricity market, and we find that it is accurate in futures and option value estimates. In addition, the obtained results and the proposed methodology can be useful as a starting point for risk management or portfolio optimization under uncertainty in the current context of energy markets.

On a Boltzmann-type price formation model

KAUST Repository

Burger, Martin; Caffarelli, Luis A.; Markowich, Peter A.; Wolfram, Marie Therese

2013-01-01

In this paper, we present a Boltzmann-type price formation model, which is motivated by a parabolic free boundary model for the evolution of price presented by Lasry and Lions in 2007. We discuss the mathematical analysis of the Boltzmann-type model and show that its solutions converge to solutions of the model by Lasry and Lions as the transaction rate tends to infinity. Furthermore, we analyse the behaviour of the initial layer on the fast time scale and illustrate the price dynamics with various numerical experiments. © 2013 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

On a Boltzmann-type price formation model

KAUST Repository

Burger, Martin

2013-06-26

In this paper, we present a Boltzmann-type price formation model, which is motivated by a parabolic free boundary model for the evolution of price presented by Lasry and Lions in 2007. We discuss the mathematical analysis of the Boltzmann-type model and show that its solutions converge to solutions of the model by Lasry and Lions as the transaction rate tends to infinity. Furthermore, we analyse the behaviour of the initial layer on the fast time scale and illustrate the price dynamics with various numerical experiments. © 2013 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Potential impacts of electricity price changes on price formation in the economy: a social accounting matrix price modeling analysis for Turkey

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Akkemik, K. Ali

2011-01-01

Recent reforms in the Turkish electricity sector since 2001 aim to introduce a tariff system that reflects costs. This is expected to affect the production and consumer prices of electricity. The changes in electricity prices are then reflected in production costs in other segments of the economy. Subsequently, producer and consumer prices will be affected. The potential impact of the changes in electricity prices that the ongoing electricity reforms in Turkey will bring about may have important implications on the price formation in economic activities and the cost of living for households. This paper evaluates the potential impacts of changes in electricity prices from a social accounting matrix (SAM) price modeling perspective. It is found that based on the estimated price multipliers that prices in the energy-producing sectors, mining, and iron and steel manufacturing sectors would be affected more severely than the remaining sectors of the economy. Consumer prices are affected slightly less than producer prices. - Research Highlights: → The impact of electricity generation costs on prices in other sectors is modeled. → A micro-SAM emphasizing electricity supply is constructed using 2002 I-O tables. → Energy, mining, and steel sectors are more responsive to electricity costs. → Living costs are less responsive to electricity cost changes than producer prices.

Modelling oil price volatility with structural breaks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Salisu, Afees A.; Fasanya, Ismail O.

2013-01-01

In this paper, we provide two main innovations: (i) we analyze oil prices of two prominent markets namely West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent using the two recently developed tests by Narayan and Popp (2010) and Liu and Narayan, 2010 both of which allow for two structural breaks in the data series; and (ii) the latter method is modified to include both symmetric and asymmetric volatility models. We identify two structural breaks that occur in 1990 and 2008 which coincidentally correspond to the Iraqi/Kuwait conflict and the global financial crisis, respectively. We find evidence of persistence and leverage effects in the oil price volatility. While further extensions can be pursued, the consideration of asymmetric effects as well as structural breaks should not be jettisoned when modelling oil price volatility. - Highlights: ► We analyze oil price volatility using NP (2010) and LN (2010) tests. ► We modify the LN (2010) to account for leverage effects in oil price. ► We find two structural breaks that reflect major global crisis in the oil market. ► We find evidence of persistence and leverage effects in oil price volatility. ► Leverage effects and structural breaks are fundamental in oil price modelling.

Comparative analysis of used car price evaluation models

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Chuancan; Hao, Lulu; Xu, Cong

2017-05-01

An accurate used car price evaluation is a catalyst for the healthy development of used car market. Data mining has been applied to predict used car price in several articles. However, little is studied on the comparison of using different algorithms in used car price estimation. This paper collects more than 100,000 used car dealing records throughout China to do empirical analysis on a thorough comparison of two algorithms: linear regression and random forest. These two algorithms are used to predict used car price in three different models: model for a certain car make, model for a certain car series and universal model. Results show that random forest has a stable but not ideal effect in price evaluation model for a certain car make, but it shows great advantage in the universal model compared with linear regression. This indicates that random forest is an optimal algorithm when handling complex models with a large number of variables and samples, yet it shows no obvious advantage when coping with simple models with less variables.

Measuring the value of air quality: application of the spatial hedonic model.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Seung Gyu; Cho, Seong-Hoon; Lambert, Dayton M; Roberts, Roland K

2010-03-01

This study applies a hedonic model to assess the economic benefits of air quality improvement following the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendment at the county level in the lower 48 United States. An instrumental variable approach that combines geographically weighted regression and spatial autoregression methods (GWR-SEM) is adopted to simultaneously account for spatial heterogeneity and spatial autocorrelation. SEM mitigates spatial dependency while GWR addresses spatial heterogeneity by allowing response coefficients to vary across observations. Positive amenity values of improved air quality are found in four major clusters: (1) in East Kentucky and most of Georgia around the Southern Appalachian area; (2) in a few counties in Illinois; (3) on the border of Oklahoma and Kansas, on the border of Kansas and Nebraska, and in east Texas; and (4) in a few counties in Montana. Clusters of significant positive amenity values may exist because of a combination of intense air pollution and consumer awareness of diminishing air quality.

Electricity pricing model in thermal generating stations under deregulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reji, P.; Ashok, S.; Moideenkutty, K.M.

2007-01-01

In regulated public utilities with competitive power markets, deregulation has replaced the monopoly. Under the deregulated power market, the electricity price primarily depends on market mechanism and power demand. In this market, generators generally follow marginal pricing. Each generator fixes the electricity price based on their pricing strategy and it leads to more price volatility. This paper proposed a model to determine the electricity price considering all operational constraints of the plant and economic variables that influenced the price, for a thermal generating station under deregulation. The purpose of the model was to assist existing stations, investors in the power sector, regulatory authorities, transmission utilities, and new power generators in decision-making. The model could accommodate price volatility in the market and was based on performance incentive/penalty considering plant load factor, availability of the plant and peak/ off peak demand. The model was applied as a case study to a typical thermal utility in India to determine the electricity price. It was concluded that the case study of a thermal generating station in a deregulated environment showed that the electricity price mainly depended on the gross calorific value (GCV) of fuel, mode of operation, price of the fuel, and operating charges. 11 refs., 2 tabs., 1 fig

Modeling the stock price returns volatility using GARCH(1,1) in some Indonesia stock prices

Science.gov (United States)

Awalludin, S. A.; Ulfah, S.; Soro, S.

2018-01-01

In the financial field, volatility is one of the key variables to make an appropriate decision. Moreover, modeling volatility is needed in derivative pricing, risk management, and portfolio management. For this reason, this study presented a widely used volatility model so-called GARCH(1,1) for estimating the volatility of daily returns of stock prices of Indonesia from July 2007 to September 2015. The returns can be obtained from stock price by differencing log of the price from one day to the next. Parameters of the model were estimated by Maximum Likelihood Estimation. After obtaining the volatility, natural cubic spline was employed to study the behaviour of the volatility over the period. The result shows that GARCH(1,1) indicate evidence of volatility clustering in the returns of some Indonesia stock prices.

Modelling the impact of oil prices on Vietnam's stock prices

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Narayan, Paresh Kumar [School of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Deakin University, Victoria 3125 (Australia); Narayan, Seema [School of Economics, Finance and Marketing, Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology University, Melbourne (Australia)

2010-01-15

The goal of this paper is to model the impact of oil prices on Vietnam's stock prices. We use daily data for the period 2000-2008 and include the nominal exchange rate as an additional determinant of stock prices. We find that stock prices, oil prices and nominal exchange rates are cointegrated, and oil prices have a positive and statistically significant impact on stock prices. This result is inconsistent with theoretical expectations. The growth of the Vietnamese stock market was accompanied by rising oil prices. However, the boom of the stock market was marked by increasing foreign portfolio investment inflows which are estimated to have doubled from US$0.9 billion in 2005 to US$1.9 billion in 2006. There was also a change in preferences from holding foreign currencies and domestic bank deposits to stocks local market participants, and there was a rise in leveraged investment in stock as well as investments on behalf of relatives living abroad. It seems that the impact of these internal and domestic factors were more dominant than the oil price rise on the Vietnamese stock market. (author)

The Effect of Zoning Laws on Housing Prices and BAH Rates

Science.gov (United States)

2014-12-01

sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed , and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden...Glaeser and Gyourko’s (2002) calculations for the implicit price of land from the hedonic method and the extensive value of land including zoning taxes...without the need to be particularly close to the industrial centers where people worked or near to the rail car tracks. The truck had a much more

Investigation of sensory profiles and hedonic drivers of emerging aquaculture fish species.

Science.gov (United States)

Alexi, Niki; Byrne, Derek V; Nanou, Evangelia; Grigorakis, Kriton

2018-02-01

The aquaculture sector needs to increase the diversity fish species and their processed products to cover rising consumer demands. Candidates for this diversification have been identified to be meagre, greater amberjack, pikeperch and wreckfish. Yet scientific knowledge on their sensory profiles and consumer hedonic responses is scarce. The aim of the current study was to investigate these aspects, since they are essential for product development and market targeting. Species exhibited different sensory profiles with the exception of the odor/flavor profiles of meagre and greater amberjack, which were similar. Texture was more important than odor/flavor in explaining interspecies differences. Yet the hedonic responses were equally related to texture and odor/flavor. None of the species received negative hedonic scores. Both positive and negative hedonic drivers were identified within the odor/flavor and texture modalities. The distinct profiles of meagre, greater amberjack, pikeperch and wreckfish make these fish species valuable first materials for new product development and for covering markets with different sensory preferences. Differences in fish texture are more easily perceivable, yet small variations in fish odor/flavor can have a great impact on consumers' hedonic responses. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry.

Metabolic vs. hedonic obesity: a conceptual distinction and its clinical implications.

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Y-H; Vasselli, J R; Zhang, Y; Mechanick, J I; Korner, J; Peterli, R

2015-03-01

Body weight is determined via both metabolic and hedonic mechanisms. Metabolic regulation of body weight centres around the 'body weight set point', which is programmed by energy balance circuitry in the hypothalamus and other specific brain regions. The metabolic body weight set point has a genetic basis, but exposure to an obesogenic environment may elicit allostatic responses and upward drift of the set point, leading to a higher maintained body weight. However, an elevated steady-state body weight may also be achieved without an alteration of the metabolic set point, via sustained hedonic over-eating, which is governed by the reward system of the brain and can override homeostatic metabolic signals. While hedonic signals are potent influences in determining food intake, metabolic regulation involves the active control of both food intake and energy expenditure. When overweight is due to elevation of the metabolic set point ('metabolic obesity'), energy expenditure theoretically falls onto the standard energy-mass regression line. In contrast, when a steady-state weight is above the metabolic set point due to hedonic over-eating ('hedonic obesity'), a persistent compensatory increase in energy expenditure per unit metabolic mass may be demonstrable. Recognition of the two types of obesity may lead to more effective treatment and prevention of obesity. © 2015 The Authors. Obesity Reviews published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of International Association for the Study of Obesity (IASO).

Improved structural pricing model for the fair market price of Sukuk Ijarah in Indonesia

Science.gov (United States)

Rosadi, D.; Muslim

2017-12-01

Shariah financial products are currently developing in Indonesia financial market. One of the most important products is called as Sukuk which is commonly referred to as "sharia compliant" bonds. The type of Sukuk that have been widely traded in Indonesia until now are Sukuk Ijarah and Sukuk Mudharabah. In [1], we discuss various models for the price of the fixed-non-callable Sukuk Ijarah and provide the empirical studies using data from Indonesia Bonds market. We found that the structural model considered in [1] cannot model the market price empirically well. In this paper, we consider the improved model and show that it performs well for modelling the fair market price of Sukuk Ijarah.

Modelling world gold prices and USD foreign exchange relationship using multivariate GARCH model

Science.gov (United States)

Ping, Pung Yean; Ahmad, Maizah Hura Binti

2014-12-01

World gold price is a popular investment commodity. The series have often been modeled using univariate models. The objective of this paper is to show that there is a co-movement between gold price and USD foreign exchange rate. Using the effect of the USD foreign exchange rate on the gold price, a model that can be used to forecast future gold prices is developed. For this purpose, the current paper proposes a multivariate GARCH (Bivariate GARCH) model. Using daily prices of both series from 01.01.2000 to 05.05.2014, a causal relation between the two series understudied are found and a bivariate GARCH model is produced.

Understanding utilitarian and hedonic values determining the demand for rhino horn in Vietnam

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dang Vu, Hoai Nam; Nielsen, Martin Reinhardt

2018-01-01

indicating utilitarian values, although difficult to separate from the hedonic value in projecting success in business. A ritualized way of honoring terminally ill relatives represented a hedonic value replacing belief in effective treatment. Demand reduction campaigns need to appropriately reflect all......We examined utilitarian and hedonic values as motivations for rhino horn use in Vietnam. We also evaluated consumers’ response to consequences of the illegal trade in behavior modification campaigns and the likely outcome of a legalized trade. The most prevalent use was for treatment of hangovers...

Parameter estimation of electricity spot models from futures prices

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Aihara, ShinIchi; Bagchi, Arunabha; Imreizeeq, E.S.N.; Walter, E.

We consider a slight perturbation of the Schwartz-Smith model for the electricity futures prices and the resulting modified spot model. Using the martingale property of the modified price under the risk neutral measure, we derive the arbitrage free model for the spot and futures prices. We estimate

Responses of peripheral endocannabinoids and endocannabinoid-related compounds to hedonic eating in obesity.

Science.gov (United States)

Monteleone, A M; Di Marzo, V; Monteleone, P; Dalle Grave, R; Aveta, T; Ghoch, M El; Piscitelli, F; Volpe, U; Calugi, S; Maj, M

2016-06-01

Hedonic eating occurs independently from homeostatic needs prompting the ingestion of pleasurable foods that are typically rich in fat, sugar and/or salt content. In normal weight healthy subjects, we found that before hedonic eating, plasma levels of 2-arachidonoylglycerol (2-AG) were higher than before nonhedonic eating, and although they progressively decreased after food ingestion in both eating conditions, they were significantly higher in hedonic eating. Plasma levels of anandamide (AEA), oleoylethanolamide (OEA) and palmitoylethanolamide (PEA), instead, progressively decreased in both eating conditions without significant differences. In this study, we investigated the responses of AEA, 2-AG, OEA and PEA to hedonic eating in obese individuals. Peripheral levels of AEA, 2-AG, OEA and PEA were measured in 14 obese patients after eating favourite (hedonic eating) and non-favourite (nonhedonic eating) foods in conditions of no homeostatic needs. Plasma levels of 2-AG increased after eating the favourite food, whereas they decreased after eating the non-favourite food, with the production of the endocannabinoid being significantly enhanced in hedonic eating. Plasma levels of AEA decreased progressively in nonhedonic eating, whereas they showed a decrease after the exposure to the favourite food followed by a return to baseline values after eating it. No significant differences emerged in plasma OEA and PEA responses to favourite and non-favourite food. Present findings compared with those obtained in our previously studied normal weight healthy subjects suggest deranged responses of endocannabinoids to food-related reward in obesity.

Startling sweet temptations: hedonic chocolate deprivation modulates experience, eating behavior, and eyeblink startle.

Science.gov (United States)

Blechert, Jens; Naumann, Eva; Schmitz, Julian; Herbert, Beate M; Tuschen-Caffier, Brunna

2014-01-01

Many individuals restrict their food intake to prevent weight gain. This restriction has both homeostatic and hedonic effects but their relative contribution is currently unclear. To isolate hedonic effects of food restriction, we exposed regular chocolate eaters to one week of chocolate deprivation but otherwise regular eating. Before and after this hedonic deprivation, participants viewed images of chocolate and images of high-calorie but non-chocolate containing foods, while experiential, behavioral and eyeblink startle responses were measured. Compared to satiety, hedonic deprivation triggered increased chocolate wanting, liking, and chocolate consumption but also feelings of frustration and startle potentiation during the intertrial intervals. Deprivation was further characterized by startle inhibition during both chocolate and food images relative to the intertrial intervals. Individuals who responded with frustration to the manipulation and those who scored high on a questionnaire of impulsivity showed more relative startle inhibition. The results reveal the profound effects of hedonic deprivation on experiential, behavioral and attentional/appetitive response systems and underscore the role of individual differences and state variables for startle modulation. Implications for dieting research and practice as well as for eating and weight disorders are discussed.

The Impact of Wind Power Projects on Residential Property Values in the United States: A Multi-Site Hedonic Analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hoen, Ben; Wiser, Ryan; Cappers, Peter; Thayer, Mark; Sethi, Gautam

2009-12-02

With wind energy expanding rapidly in the U.S. and abroad, and with an increasing number of communities considering wind power development nearby, there is an urgent need to empirically investigate common community concerns about wind project development. The concern that property values will be adversely affected by wind energy facilities is commonly put forth by stakeholders. Although this concern is not unreasonable, given property value impacts that have been found near high voltage transmission lines and other electric generation facilities, the impacts of wind energy facilities on residential property values had not previously been investigated thoroughly. The present research collected data on almost 7,500 sales of singlefamily homes situated within 10 miles of 24 existing wind facilities in nine different U.S. states. The conclusions of the study are drawn from eight different hedonic pricing models, as well as both repeat sales and sales volume models. The various analyses are strongly consistent in that none of the models uncovers conclusive evidence of the existence of any widespread property value impacts that might be present in communities surrounding wind energy facilities. Specifically, neither the view of the wind facilities nor the distance of the home to those facilities is found to have any consistent, measurable, and statistically significant effect on home sales prices. Although the analysis cannot dismiss the possibility that individual homes or small numbers of homes have been or could be negatively impacted, it finds that if these impacts do exist, they are either too small and/or too infrequent to result in any widespread, statistically observable impact.

Understanding the Hedonic Consumption of Servicescapes: The Case of LEGOLAND

OpenAIRE

Mazhar, Muhammad Haider

2015-01-01

This study is based on the concept of hedonic consumption and the importance of servicescapes. The study applied a qualitative approach in understanding the hedonic aspects and the experiences with servicescape setting in LEGOLAND, Windsor UK. The data was collected through autoethnography and interviews. The results indicated “Fun for children” and “learning” as the primary factors of motivations for parents. The Role Projection behaviour of kids was also reported on the bases of observatory...

Prices, production, and inventories over the automotive model year

OpenAIRE

Adam Copeland; Wendy E. Dunn; George J. Hall

2005-01-01

This paper studies the within-model-year pricing and production of new automobiles. Using new monthly data on U.S. transaction prices, we document that for the typical new vehicle, prices typically fall over the model year at a 9.2 percent annual rate. Concurrently, both sales and inventories are hump shaped. To explain these time series, we formulate a market equilibrium model for new automobiles in which inventory and pricing decisions are made simultaneously. On the demand side, we use mic...

Electricity price forecasting through transfer function models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nogales, F.J.; Conejo, A.J.

2006-01-01

Forecasting electricity prices in present day competitive electricity markets is a must for both producers and consumers because both need price estimates to develop their respective market bidding strategies. This paper proposes a transfer function model to predict electricity prices based on both past electricity prices and demands, and discuss the rationale to build it. The importance of electricity demand information is assessed. Appropriate metrics to appraise prediction quality are identified and used. Realistic and extensive simulations based on data from the PJM Interconnection for year 2003 are conducted. The proposed model is compared with naive and other techniques. Journal of the Operational Research Society (2006) 57, 350-356.doi:10.1057/palgrave.jors.2601995; published online 18 May 2005. (author)

Assessing Asset Pricing Models Using Revealed Preference

OpenAIRE

Jonathan B. Berk; Jules H. van Binsbergen

2014-01-01

We propose a new method of testing asset pricing models that relies on using quantities rather than prices or returns. We use the capital flows into and out of mutual funds to infer which risk model investors use. We derive a simple test statistic that allows us to infer, from a set of candidate models, the model that is closest to the model that investors use in making their capital allocation decisions. Using this methodology, we find that of the models most commonly used in the literature,...

Bayesian Option Pricing using Mixed Normal Heteroskedasticity Models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rombouts, Jeroen; Stentoft, Lars

2014-01-01

Option pricing using mixed normal heteroscedasticity models is considered. It is explained how to perform inference and price options in a Bayesian framework. The approach allows to easily compute risk neutral predictive price densities which take into account parameter uncertainty....... In an application to the S&P 500 index, classical and Bayesian inference is performed on the mixture model using the available return data. Comparing the ML estimates and posterior moments small differences are found. When pricing a rich sample of options on the index, both methods yield similar pricing errors...... measured in dollar and implied standard deviation losses, and it turns out that the impact of parameter uncertainty is minor. Therefore, when it comes to option pricing where large amounts of data are available, the choice of the inference method is unimportant. The results are robust to different...

Factors affecting forward pricing behaviour: implications of alternative regression model specifications

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Henry Jordaan

2010-12-01

Full Text Available Price risk associated with maize production became a reason for concern in South Africa only after the deregulation of the agricultural commodities markets in the mid-1990s, when farmers became responsible for marketing their own crops. Although farmers can use, inter alia, the cash forward contracting and/or the derivatives market to manage price risk, few farmers actually participate in forward pricing. A similar reluctance to use forward pricing methods is also found internationally. A number of different model specifications have been used in previous research to model forward pricing behaviour which is based on the assumption that the same variables influence both the adoption and the quantity decision. This study compares the results from a model specification which models forward pricing behaviour in a single-decision framework with the results from modelling the quantity decision conditional to the adoption decision in a two-step approach. The results suggest that substantially more information is obtained by modelling forward pricing behaviour as two separate decisions rather than a single decision. Such information may be valuable in educational material compiled to educate farmers in the effective use of forward pricing methods in price risk management. Modelling forward pricing behaviour as two separate decisions  is thus a more effective means of modelling forward pricing behaviour than modelling it as a single decision.

Understanding Consumer Interaction on Instagram: The Role of Satisfaction, Hedonism, and Content Characteristics.

Science.gov (United States)

Casaló, Luis V; Flavián, Carlos; Ibáñez-Sánchez, Sergio

2017-06-01

The increasing relevance of Instagram and its growing adoption among top brands suggest an effort to better understand consumers' behaviors within this context. The purpose of this study is to examine the role of perceived hedonism and satisfaction in determining consumers' intentions to interact and their actual interaction behaviors (the number of likes, by tapping a heart icon, and comments) in a brand's official Instagram account. Also, we investigate the effect of consumer perceptions about the characteristics of the content generated in the account (perceived originality, quantity, and quality) on their perceived hedonism and satisfaction. Data were collected in two stages from 808 members of a fashion brand's official Instagram account. First, participants answered an online questionnaire to evaluate their perceptions, satisfaction, and interaction intentions. Second, 1 month later, we measure the number of likes and comments done by each participant in the brand's official Instagram account during that month. Using partial least squares to analyze the data, perceived hedonism is found to affect both satisfaction and the intention to interact in Instagram, which in turn influences actual behavior. Besides, perceived originality is the most relevant content characteristic to develop perceived hedonism. These findings offer managers a general vision of consumers' behaviors on Instagram, highlighting the importance of hedonism to create a satisfactory experience.

Pengaruh Hedonic Shopping Motivation Terhadap Impulse Buying Pada Toko Online: Studi Pada Toko Online Zalora

OpenAIRE

Pasaribu, Lia Octaria; Dewi, Citra Kusuma

2015-01-01

Online shopping, including shopping for fashion goods, has become a trend in Indonesia. One of buyer's motivations to do online-fashion-shopping is hedonic shopping motivation. This research aims to examine the influence of hedonic shopping motivation on impulse buying process. Using 100 buyers of Zalora (an online shop) as the respondents, this study confirms that hedonic shopping motivation has a significant influence on the impulse buying process.

UTILITARIAN AND HEDONIC VALUES THAT INFLUENCE CUSTOMER SATISFACTION AND THEIR IMPACT ON THE REPURCHASE INTENTION: ONLINE SURVEY TOWARDS BERRYBENKA FASHION E-COMMERCE'S BUYER

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Johar D.S.

2018-01-01

Full Text Available This research aims to describe the influence of utilitarian and hedonic values toward customer satisfaction and repurchase intentions. The sampling method used for research is purposive sampling with 141 respondents who bought Berrybenka products. Based on the Structural Equation Modeling, it is found that utilitarian and hedonic values are significant towards repurchase intention through customer satisfaction.

Fractional-moment Capital Asset Pricing model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li Hui; Wu Min; Wang Xiaotian

2009-01-01

In this paper, we introduce the definition of the 'α-covariance' and present the fractional-moment versions of Capital Asset Pricing Model,which can be used to price assets when asset return distributions are likely to be stable Levy (or Student-t) distribution during panics and stampedes in worldwide security markets in 2008. Furthermore, if asset returns are truly governed by the infinite-variance stable Levy distributions, life is fundamentally riskier than in a purely Gaussian world. Sudden price movements like the worldwide security market crash in 2008 turn into real-world possibilities.

Modelling prices in competitive electricity markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bunn, D.W.

2004-04-01

Electricity markets are structurally different to other commodities, and the real-time dynamic balancing of the electricity network involves many external factors. Because of this, it is not a simple matter to transfer conventional models of financial time series analysis to wholesale electricity prices. The rationale for this compilation of chapters from international authors is, therefore, to provide econometric analysis of wholesale power markets around the world, to give greater understanding of their particular characteristics, and to assess the applicability of various methods of price modelling. Researchers and professionals in this sector will find the book an invaluable guide to the most important state-of-the-art modelling techniques which are converging to define the special approaches necessary for unravelling and forecasting the behaviour of electricity prices. It is a high-quality synthesis of the work of financial engineering, industrial economics and power systems analysis, as they relate to the behaviour of competitive electricity markets. (author)

Formation of an Integrated Stock Price Forecast Model in Lithuania

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Audrius Dzikevičius

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Technical and fundamental analyses are widely used to forecast stock prices due to lack of knowledge of other modern models and methods such as Residual Income Model, ANN-APGARCH, Support Vector Machine, Probabilistic Neural Network and Genetic Fuzzy Systems. Although stock price forecast models integrating both technical and fundamental analyses are currently used widely, their integration is not justified comprehensively enough. This paper discusses theoretical one-factor and multi-factor stock price forecast models already applied by investors at a global level and determines possibility to create and apply practically a stock price forecast model which integrates fundamental and technical analysis with the reference to the Lithuanian stock market. The research is aimed to determine the relationship between stock prices of the 14 Lithuanian companies listed in the Main List by the Nasdaq OMX Baltic and various fundamental variables. Based on correlation and regression analysis results and application of c-Squared Test, ANOVA method, a general stock price forecast model is generated. This paper discusses practical implications how the developed model can be used to forecast stock prices by individual investors and suggests additional check measures.

Application of Markov Model in Crude Oil Price Forecasting

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Nuhu Isah

2017-08-01

Full Text Available Crude oil is an important energy commodity to mankind. Several causes have made crude oil prices to be volatile. The fluctuation of crude oil prices has affected many related sectors and stock market indices. Hence, forecasting the crude oil prices is essential to avoid the future prices of the non-renewable natural resources to rise. In this study, daily crude oil prices data was obtained from WTI dated 2 January to 29 May 2015. We used Markov Model (MM approach in forecasting the crude oil prices. In this study, the analyses were done using EViews and Maple software where the potential of this software in forecasting daily crude oil prices time series data was explored. Based on the study, we concluded that MM model is able to produce accurate forecast based on a description of history patterns in crude oil prices.

Brownian motion model with stochastic parameters for asset prices

Science.gov (United States)

Ching, Soo Huei; Hin, Pooi Ah

2013-09-01

The Brownian motion model may not be a completely realistic model for asset prices because in real asset prices the drift μ and volatility σ may change over time. Presently we consider a model in which the parameter x = (μ,σ) is such that its value x (t + Δt) at a short time Δt ahead of the present time t depends on the value of the asset price at time t + Δt as well as the present parameter value x(t) and m-1 other parameter values before time t via a conditional distribution. The Malaysian stock prices are used to compare the performance of the Brownian motion model with fixed parameter with that of the model with stochastic parameter.

Analysis of a decision model in the context of equilibrium pricing and order book pricing

Science.gov (United States)

Wagner, D. C.; Schmitt, T. A.; Schäfer, R.; Guhr, T.; Wolf, D. E.

2014-12-01

An agent-based model for financial markets has to incorporate two aspects: decision making and price formation. We introduce a simple decision model and consider its implications in two different pricing schemes. First, we study its parameter dependence within a supply-demand balance setting. We find realistic behavior in a wide parameter range. Second, we embed our decision model in an order book setting. Here, we observe interesting features which are not present in the equilibrium pricing scheme. In particular, we find a nontrivial behavior of the order book volumes which reminds of a trend switching phenomenon. Thus, the decision making model alone does not realistically represent the trading and the stylized facts. The order book mechanism is crucial.

The Hierarchical Trend Model for property valuation and local price indices

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Francke, M.K.; Vos, G.A.

2002-01-01

This paper presents a hierarchical trend model (HTM) for selling prices of houses, addressing three main problems: the spatial and temporal dependence of selling prices and the dependency of price index changes on housing quality. In this model the general price trend, cluster-level price trends,

CAM Stochastic Volatility Model for Option Pricing

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wanwan Huang

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The coupled additive and multiplicative (CAM noises model is a stochastic volatility model for derivative pricing. Unlike the other stochastic volatility models in the literature, the CAM model uses two Brownian motions, one multiplicative and one additive, to model the volatility process. We provide empirical evidence that suggests a nontrivial relationship between the kurtosis and skewness of asset prices and that the CAM model is able to capture this relationship, whereas the traditional stochastic volatility models cannot. We introduce a control variate method and Monte Carlo estimators for some of the sensitivities (Greeks of the model. We also derive an approximation for the characteristic function of the model.

On the effects of search attributes on price variability: An empirical investigation on quality wines

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Seccia Antonio

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The choice of a bottle of wine is affected by the presence of attributes that are searched by consumers and can be evaluated before the purchase. The aim of the paper is to analyze the effect of some search attributes on wine price variability applying the Hedonic Price Model. It allows explaining how the price of wine varies depending on its main quality attributes. The analysis has been based on a sample of wines made in Puglia, Italian region characterized by a tradition in wine production and consumption. Data have been collected from a wine guidebook considering the years 2008–2013. The study provided a measure of the market value of some search attributes for wines produced in Puglia. Attributes as alcoholic content, age and score given by experts, influence price variability allowing wines to obtain a premium price, such as the most known Protected Designation of Origin (PDO and some Protected Geographical Indication (PGI. The name of the variety seems not to have high influence with the exception of less known and locally grown varieties. Results may be of interest for marketers and policy makers of wine industry. Managerial implications could refer to the importance of differentiation strategies aimed to market segmentation and to the pricing strategy. Policymakers could also find interesting hints about the influence of the different appellations and the importance of minor autochthonous grape varieties.

Modelling energy spot prices by Lévy semistationary processes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Barndorff-Nielsen, Ole; Benth, Fred Espen; Veraart, Almut

This paper introduces a new modelling framework for energy spot prices based on Lévy semistationary processes. Lévy semistationary processes are special cases of the general class of ambit processes. We provide a detailed analysis of the probabilistic properties of such models and we show how...... they are able to capture many of the stylised facts observed in energy markets. Furthermore, we derive forward prices based on our spot price model. As it turns out, many of the classical spot models can be embedded into our novel modelling framework....

Orphan Drug Pricing: An Original Exponential Model Relating Price to the Number of Patients

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrea Messori

2016-10-01

Full Text Available In managing drug prices at the national level, orphan drugs represent a special case because the price of these agents is higher than that determined according to value-based principles. A common practice is to set the orphan drug price in an inverse relationship with the number of patients, so that the price increases as the number of patients decreases. Determination of prices in this context generally has a purely empirical nature, but a theoretical basis would be needed. The present paper describes an original exponential model that manages the relationship between price and number of patients for orphan drugs. Three real examples are analysed in detail (eculizumab, bosentan, and a data set of 17 orphan drugs published in 2010. These analyses have been aimed at identifying some objective criteria to rationally inform this relationship between prices and patients and at converting these criteria into explicit quantitative rules.

Economic analysis of coal price-electricity price adjustment in China based on the CGE model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

He, Y.X.; Zhang, S.L.; Yang, L.Y.; Wang, Y.J.; Wang, J.

2010-01-01

In recent years, coal price has risen rapidly, which has also brought a sharp increase in the expenditures of thermal power plants in China. Meantime, the power production price and power retail price have not been adjusted accordingly and a large number of thermal power plants have incurred losses. The power industry is a key industry in the national economy. As such, a thorough analysis and evaluation of the economic influence of the electricity price should be conducted before electricity price adjustment is carried out. This paper analyses the influence of coal price adjustment on the electric power industry, and the influence of electricity price adjustment on the macroeconomy in China based on computable general equilibrium models. The conclusions are as follows: (1) a coal price increase causes a rise in the cost of the electric power industry, but the influence gradually descends with increase in coal price; and (2) an electricity price increase has an adverse influence on the total output, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Electricity price increases have a contractionary effect on economic development and, consequently, electricity price policy making must consequently consider all factors to minimize their adverse influence.

The Hedonic Haptics Player: A Wearable Device to Experience Vibrotactile Compositions

OpenAIRE

Boer, Laurens; Vallgårda, Anna; Cahill, Ben

2017-01-01

The Hedonic Haptics player is a portable wearable device that plays back vibrotactile compositions. It consists of three domes each of which houses a vibration motor providing vibrotactile sensations to the wearer. The domes are connected to a control unit the size of a small Walkman. The Hedonic Haptics player can store up to ten different compositions made up of haptic signals varying in amplitude, waveform and length. We use these different compositions to explore the aesthetic potential o...

An Empirical Comparison of Default Swap Pricing Models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

P. Houweling (Patrick); A.C.F. Vorst (Ton)

2002-01-01

textabstractAbstract: In this paper we compare market prices of credit default swaps with model prices. We show that a simple reduced form model with a constant recovery rate outperforms the market practice of directly comparing bonds' credit spreads to default swap premiums. We find that the

An equivalent marginal cost-pricing model for the district heating market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, Junli; Ge, Bin; Xu, Hongsheng

2013-01-01

District heating pricing is a core element in reforming the heating market. Existing district heating pricing methods, such as the cost-plus pricing method and the conventional marginal-cost pricing method, cannot simultaneously provide both high efficiency and sufficient investment cost return. To solve this problem, the paper presents a new pricing model, namely Equivalent Marginal Cost Pricing (EMCP) model, which is based on the EVE pricing theory and the unique characteristics of heat products and district heating. The EMCP model uses exergy as the measurement of heating product value and places products from different district heating regions into the same competition platform. In the proposed model, the return on investment cost is closely related to the quoted cost, and within the limitations of the Heating Capacity Cost Reference and the maximum compensated shadow capacity cost, both lower and higher price speculations of heat producers are restricted. Simulation results show that the model can guide heat producers to bid according to their production costs and to provide reasonable returns on investment, which contributes to stimulate the role of price leverage and to promote the optimal allocation of heat resources. - Highlights: • Presents a new district heating pricing model. • Provides both high market efficiency and sufficient investment cost return. • Provides a competition mechanism for various products from different DH regions. • Both of lower and higher price speculations are restricted in the new model

Minimum Price Guarantees In a Consumer Search Model

NARCIS (Netherlands)

M.C.W. Janssen (Maarten); A. Parakhonyak (Alexei)

2009-01-01

textabstractThis paper is the first to examine the effect of minimum price guarantees in a sequential search model. Minimum price guarantees are not advertised and only known to consumers when they come to the shop. We show that in such an environment, minimum price guarantees increase the value of

Fuzzy pricing for urban water resources: model construction and application.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Ranhang; Chen, Shouyu

2008-08-01

A rational water price system plays a crucial role in the optimal allocation of water resources. In this paper, a fuzzy pricing model for urban water resources is presented, which consists of a multi-criteria fuzzy evaluation model and a water resources price (WRP) computation model. Various factors affecting WRP are comprehensively evaluated with multiple levels and objectives in the multi-criteria fuzzy evaluation model, while the price vectors of water resources are constructed in the WRP computation model according to the definition of the bearing water price index, and then WRP is calculated. With the incorporation of an operator's knowledge, it considers iterative weights and subjective preference of operators for weight-assessment. The weights determined are more rational and the evaluation results are more realistic. Particularly, dual water supply is considered in the study. Different prices being fixed for water resources with different qualities conforms to the law of water resources value (WRV) itself. A high-quality groundwater price computation model is also proposed to provide optimal water allocation and to meet higher living standards. The developed model is applied in Jinan for evaluating its validity. The method presented in this paper offers some new directions in the research of WRP.

A rough multi-factor model of electricity spot prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bennedsen, Mikkel

2017-01-01

We introduce a new continuous-time mathematical model of electricity spot prices which accounts for the most important stylized facts of these time series: seasonality, spikes, stochastic volatility, and mean reversion. Empirical studies have found a possible fifth stylized fact, roughness, and our approach explicitly incorporates this into the model of the prices. Our setup generalizes the popular Ornstein–Uhlenbeck-based multi-factor framework of and allows us to perform statistical tests to distinguish between an Ornstein–Uhlenbeck-based model and a rough model. Further, through the multi-factor approach we account for seasonality and spikes before estimating – and making inference on – the degree of roughness. This is novel in the literature and we present simulation evidence showing that these precautions are crucial for accurate estimation. Lastly, we estimate our model on recent data from six European energy exchanges and find statistical evidence of roughness in five out of six markets. As an application of our model, we show how, in these five markets, a rough component improves short term forecasting of the prices. - Highlights: • Statistical modeling of electricity spot prices • Multi-factor decomposition • Roughness • Electricity price forecasting

EXPLANATORY MODEL OF SPOT PRICE OF IRON ORE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Juan Enrique Villalva A.

2015-11-01

Full Text Available The objective of this study was to construct an explanatory model of the spot price of iron ore in the international market. For this, the method of multiple linear regressions was used. As a dependent variable, the spot price of iron ore (62% Fe China Tianjin port was taken, between 2010 and 2013. As independents variables were taken seven variables of international iron ore market. The resulting model includes variables: Iron ore inventory in Chinese ports, Baltic Dry Index (BDI, Iron ore exports from Brazil & Australia and Chinese Rebar Steel Price, as explanatory variables of the behavior of the spot price of iron ore in the international market. The model has an adjusted coefficient of determination R2 of 0.90, and was validated by comparing its predictions vs. known values of 2014.

Dynamics Model Applied to Pricing Options with Uncertain Volatility

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lorella Fatone

2012-01-01

model is proposed. The data used to test the calibration problem included observations of asset prices over a finite set of (known equispaced discrete time values. Statistical tests were used to estimate the statistical significance of the two parameters of the Black-Scholes model: the volatility and the drift. The effects of these estimates on the option pricing problem were investigated. In particular, the pricing of an option with uncertain volatility in the Black-Scholes framework was revisited, and a statistical significance was associated with the price intervals determined using the Black-Scholes-Barenblatt equations. Numerical experiments involving synthetic and real data were presented. The real data considered were the daily closing values of the S&P500 index and the associated European call and put option prices in the year 2005. The method proposed here for calibrating the Black-Scholes dynamics model could be extended to other science and engineering models that may be expressed in terms of stochastic dynamical systems.

ADHD and Present Hedonism: time perspective as a potential diagnostic and therapeutic tool

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Weissenberger S

2016-11-01

Full Text Available S Weissenberger,1 M Klicperova-Baker,2 P Zimbardo,3 K Schonova,1 D Akotia,1 J Kostal,2 M Goetz,4 J Raboch,1 R Ptacek1 1First Medical Faculty, Charles University, 2Institute of Psychology, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, Praha, Czech Republic; 3Department of Psychology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA; 4Second Faculty of Medicine, Department of Child Psychiatry, Charles University, Motol University Hospital, Praha, Czech RepublicAbstract: The article draws primarily from the behavioral findings (mainly psychiatric and psychological observations and points out the important relationships between attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD symptoms and time orientation. Specifically, the authors argue that there is a significant overlap between the symptoms of ADHD and Present Hedonism. Present Hedonism is defined by Zimbardo’s time perspective theory and assessed by Zimbardo Time Perspective Inventory. Developmental data on Present Hedonism of males and females in the Czech population sample (N=2201 are also presented. The hypothesis of relationship between ADHD and Present Hedonism is mainly derived from the prevalence of addictive behavior (mainly excessive Internet use, alcohol abuse, craving for sweets, fatty foods, and fast foods, deficits in social learning, and increased aggressiveness both in ADHD and in the population high on Present Hedonism. We conclude that Zimbardo’s time perspective offers both: 1 a potential diagnostic tool – the Zimbardo Time Perspective Inventory, particularly its Present Hedonism scale, and 2 a promising preventive and/or therapeutic approach by the Time Perspective Therapy. Time Perspective Therapy has so far been used mainly to treat past negative trauma (most notably, posttraumatic stress disorder; however, it also has value as a potential therapeutic tool for possible behavioral compensation of ADHD.Keywords: ADHD, time perspective, ZTPI, Zimbardo, addiction, alcoholism, delinquency

Spatial and Social Media Data Analytics of Housing Prices in Shenzhen, China.

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Chao; Ye, Xinyue; Ren, Fu; Wan, You; Ning, Pengfei; Du, Qingyun

2016-01-01

Housing is among the most pressing issues in urban China and has received considerable scholarly attention. Researchers have primarily concentrated on identifying the factors that influence residential property prices and how such mechanisms function. However, few studies have examined the potential factors that influence housing prices from a big data perspective. In this article, we use a big data perspective to determine the willingness of buyers to pay for various factors. The opinions and geographical preferences of individuals for places can be represented by visit frequencies given different motivations. Check-in data from the social media platform Sina Visitor System is used in this article. Here, we use kernel density estimation (KDE) to analyse the spatial patterns of check-in spots (or places of interest, POIs) and employ the Getis-Ord [Formula: see text] method to identify the hot spots for different types of POIs in Shenzhen, China. New indexes are then proposed based on the hot-spot results as measured by check-in data to analyse the effects of these locations on housing prices. This modelling is performed using the hedonic price method (HPM) and the geographically weighted regression (GWR) method. The results show that the degree of clustering of POIs has a significant influence on housing values. Meanwhile, the GWR method has a better interpretive capacity than does the HPM because of the former method's ability to capture spatial heterogeneity. This article integrates big social media data to expand the scope (new study content) and depth (study scale) of housing price research to an unprecedented degree.

Spatial and Social Media Data Analytics of Housing Prices in Shenzhen, China.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chao Wu

Full Text Available Housing is among the most pressing issues in urban China and has received considerable scholarly attention. Researchers have primarily concentrated on identifying the factors that influence residential property prices and how such mechanisms function. However, few studies have examined the potential factors that influence housing prices from a big data perspective. In this article, we use a big data perspective to determine the willingness of buyers to pay for various factors. The opinions and geographical preferences of individuals for places can be represented by visit frequencies given different motivations. Check-in data from the social media platform Sina Visitor System is used in this article. Here, we use kernel density estimation (KDE to analyse the spatial patterns of check-in spots (or places of interest, POIs and employ the Getis-Ord [Formula: see text] method to identify the hot spots for different types of POIs in Shenzhen, China. New indexes are then proposed based on the hot-spot results as measured by check-in data to analyse the effects of these locations on housing prices. This modelling is performed using the hedonic price method (HPM and the geographically weighted regression (GWR method. The results show that the degree of clustering of POIs has a significant influence on housing values. Meanwhile, the GWR method has a better interpretive capacity than does the HPM because of the former method's ability to capture spatial heterogeneity. This article integrates big social media data to expand the scope (new study content and depth (study scale of housing price research to an unprecedented degree.

Palm oil price forecasting model: An autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach

Science.gov (United States)

Hamid, Mohd Fahmi Abdul; Shabri, Ani

2017-05-01

Palm oil price fluctuated without any clear trend or cyclical pattern in the last few decades. The instability of food commodities price causes it to change rapidly over time. This paper attempts to develop Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model in modeling and forecasting the price of palm oil. In order to use ARDL as a forecasting model, this paper modifies the data structure where we only consider lagged explanatory variables to explain the variation in palm oil price. We then compare the performance of this ARDL model with a benchmark model namely ARIMA in term of their comparative forecasting accuracy. This paper also utilize ARDL bound testing approach to co-integration in examining the short run and long run relationship between palm oil price and its determinant; production, stock, and price of soybean as the substitute of palm oil and price of crude oil. The comparative forecasting accuracy suggests that ARDL model has a better forecasting accuracy compared to ARIMA.

Probabilistic Electricity Price Forecasting Models by Aggregation of Competitive Predictors

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Claudio Monteiro

2018-04-01

Full Text Available This article presents original probabilistic price forecasting meta-models (PPFMCP models, by aggregation of competitive predictors, for day-ahead hourly probabilistic price forecasting. The best twenty predictors of the EEM2016 EPF competition are used to create ensembles of hourly spot price forecasts. For each hour, the parameter values of the probability density function (PDF of a Beta distribution for the output variable (hourly price can be directly obtained from the expected and variance values associated to the ensemble for such hour, using three aggregation strategies of predictor forecasts corresponding to three PPFMCP models. A Reliability Indicator (RI and a Loss function Indicator (LI are also introduced to give a measure of uncertainty of probabilistic price forecasts. The three PPFMCP models were satisfactorily applied to the real-world case study of the Iberian Electricity Market (MIBEL. Results from PPFMCP models showed that PPFMCP model 2, which uses aggregation by weight values according to daily ranks of predictors, was the best probabilistic meta-model from a point of view of mean absolute errors, as well as of RI and LI. PPFMCP model 1, which uses the averaging of predictor forecasts, was the second best meta-model. PPFMCP models allow evaluations of risk decisions based on the price to be made.

Do hedonic motives moderate regulatory focus motives? Evidence from the framing of persuasive messages.

Science.gov (United States)

Malaviya, Prashant; Brendl, C Miguel

2014-01-01

Research on regulatory focus has established a regulatory matching effect: The persuasiveness of a message is enhanced when regulatory orientations of message and perceiver match (i.e., both are promotion or both are prevention). We report evidence that varying the hedonic outcome reverses this effect. We manipulated hedonic outcome by explicitly stating pleasurable versus painful outcomes as part of the message frame as well as by priming perceivers to focus on either pleasurable or painful outcomes. When both message and perceiver were focused on pleasurable outcomes, we replicated the regulatory matching effect. However, the matching effect reversed when the hedonic outcome of the message was opposed to that of the perceiver (i.e., one was pleasurable and the other painful). Under these conditions, messages that mismatched the perceivers' regulatory orientation were more persuasive (i.e., promotion message for a prevention oriented perceiver or vice versa). We also examined the persuasion effects when both message and perceiver were focused on painful outcomes and found that the regulatory matching effect re-emerged. The reversal of the regulatory matching effect by hedonic outcome strongly suggests that hedonic motives (approach of pleasure vs. avoidance of pain) and regulatory focus motives are distinct constructs. This is important because contrary to theoretical statements these constructs have often been confounded.

The capital-asset-pricing model and arbitrage pricing theory: a unification.

Science.gov (United States)

Ali Khan, M; Sun, Y

1997-04-15

We present a model of a financial market in which naive diversification, based simply on portfolio size and obtained as a consequence of the law of large numbers, is distinguished from efficient diversification, based on mean-variance analysis. This distinction yields a valuation formula involving only the essential risk embodied in an asset's return, where the overall risk can be decomposed into a systematic and an unsystematic part, as in the arbitrage pricing theory; and the systematic component further decomposed into an essential and an inessential part, as in the capital-asset-pricing model. The two theories are thus unified, and their individual asset-pricing formulas shown to be equivalent to the pervasive economic principle of no arbitrage. The factors in the model are endogenously chosen by a procedure analogous to the Karhunen-Loéve expansion of continuous time stochastic processes; it has an optimality property justifying the use of a relatively small number of them to describe the underlying correlational structures. Our idealized limit model is based on a continuum of assets indexed by a hyperfinite Loeb measure space, and it is asymptotically implementable in a setting with a large but finite number of assets. Because the difficulties in the formulation of the law of large numbers with a standard continuum of random variables are well known, the model uncovers some basic phenomena not amenable to classical methods, and whose approximate counterparts are not already, or even readily, apparent in the asymptotic setting.

A supply and demand based volatility model for energy prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kanamura, Takashi

2009-01-01

This paper proposes a new volatility model for energy prices using the supply-demand relationship, which we call a supply and demand based volatility model. We show that the supply curve shape in the model determines the characteristics of the volatility in energy prices. It is found that the inverse Box-Cox transformation supply curve reflecting energy markets causes the inverse leverage effect, i.e., positive correlation between energy prices and volatility. The model is also used to show that an existing (G)ARCH-M model has the foundations on the supply-demand relationship. Additionally, we conduct the empirical studies analyzing the volatility in the U.S. natural gas prices. (author)

A supply and demand based volatility model for energy prices

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kanamura, Takashi [J-POWER, 15-1, Ginza 6-Chome, Chuo-ku, Tokyo 104-8165 (Japan)

2009-09-15

This paper proposes a new volatility model for energy prices using the supply-demand relationship, which we call a supply and demand based volatility model. We show that the supply curve shape in the model determines the characteristics of the volatility in energy prices. It is found that the inverse Box-Cox transformation supply curve reflecting energy markets causes the inverse leverage effect, i.e., positive correlation between energy prices and volatility. The model is also used to show that an existing (G)ARCH-M model has the foundations on the supply-demand relationship. Additionally, we conduct the empirical studies analyzing the volatility in the U.S. natural gas prices. (author)

Neural responses to macronutrients: hedonic and homeostatic mechanisms.

Science.gov (United States)

Tulloch, Alastair J; Murray, Susan; Vaicekonyte, Regina; Avena, Nicole M

2015-05-01

The brain responds to macronutrients via intricate mechanisms. We review how the brain's neural systems implicated in homeostatic control of feeding and hedonic responses are influenced by the ingestion of specific types of food. We discuss how these neural systems are dysregulated in preclinical models of obesity. Findings from these studies can increase our understanding of overeating and, perhaps in some cases, the development of obesity. In addition, a greater understanding of the neural circuits affected by the consumption of specific macronutrients, and by obesity, might lead to new treatments and strategies for preventing unhealthy weight gain. Copyright © 2015 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Adaptation of warrant price with Black Scholes model and historical volatility

Science.gov (United States)

Aziz, Khairu Azlan Abd; Idris, Mohd Fazril Izhar Mohd; Saian, Rizauddin; Daud, Wan Suhana Wan

2015-05-01

This project discusses about pricing warrant in Malaysia. The Black Scholes model with non-dividend approach and linear interpolation technique was applied in pricing the call warrant. Three call warrants that are listed in Bursa Malaysia were selected randomly from UiTM's datastream. The finding claims that the volatility for each call warrants are different to each other. We have used the historical volatility which will describes the price movement by which an underlying share is expected to fluctuate within a period. The Black Scholes model price that was obtained by the model will be compared with the actual market price. Mispricing the call warrants will contribute to under or over valuation price. Other variables like interest rate, time to maturity date, exercise price and underlying stock price are involves in pricing call warrants as well as measuring the moneyness of call warrants.

Pricing Vulnerable Options with Market Prices of Common Jump Risks under Regime-Switching Models

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Miao Han

2018-01-01

Full Text Available This paper investigates the valuation of vulnerable European options considering the market prices of common systematic jump risks under regime-switching jump-diffusion models. The way of regime-switching Esscher transform is adopted to identify an equivalent martingale measure for pricing vulnerable European options. Explicit analytical pricing formulae for vulnerable European options are derived by risk-neutral pricing theory. For comparison, the other two cases are also considered separately. The first case considers all jump risks as unsystematic risks while the second one assumes all jumps risks to be systematic risks. Numerical examples for the valuation of vulnerable European options are provided to illustrate our results and indicate the influence of the market prices of jump risks on the valuation of vulnerable European options.

Spontaneous hedonic reactions to social media cues

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Koningsbruggen, G.M. van; Hartmann, T.; Eden, A.; Veling, H.P.

2017-01-01

Why is it so difficult to resist the desire to use social media? One possibility is that frequent social media users possess strong and spontaneous hedonic reactions to social media cues, which, in turn, makes it difficult to resist social media temptations. In two studies (total N = 200), we

Adaptive hidden Markov model with anomaly States for price manipulation detection.

Science.gov (United States)

Cao, Yi; Li, Yuhua; Coleman, Sonya; Belatreche, Ammar; McGinnity, Thomas Martin

2015-02-01

Price manipulation refers to the activities of those traders who use carefully designed trading behaviors to manually push up or down the underlying equity prices for making profits. With increasing volumes and frequency of trading, price manipulation can be extremely damaging to the proper functioning and integrity of capital markets. The existing literature focuses on either empirical studies of market abuse cases or analysis of particular manipulation types based on certain assumptions. Effective approaches for analyzing and detecting price manipulation in real time are yet to be developed. This paper proposes a novel approach, called adaptive hidden Markov model with anomaly states (AHMMAS) for modeling and detecting price manipulation activities. Together with wavelet transformations and gradients as the feature extraction methods, the AHMMAS model caters to price manipulation detection and basic manipulation type recognition. The evaluation experiments conducted on seven stock tick data from NASDAQ and the London Stock Exchange and 10 simulated stock prices by stochastic differential equation show that the proposed AHMMAS model can effectively detect price manipulation patterns and outperforms the selected benchmark models.

Changes in weight control behaviors and hedonic hunger during a 12-week commercial weight loss program.

Science.gov (United States)

O'Neil, Patrick M; Theim, Kelly R; Boeka, Abbe; Johnson, Gail; Miller-Kovach, Karen

2012-12-01

Greater use of key self-regulatory behaviors (e.g., self-monitoring of food intake and weight) is associated with greater weight loss within behavioral weight loss treatments, although this association is less established within widely-available commercial weight loss programs. Further, high hedonic hunger (i.e., susceptibility to environmental food cues) may present a barrier to successful behavior change and weight loss, although this has not yet been examined. Adult men and women (N=111, body mass index M±SD=31.5±2.7kg/m(2)) were assessed before and after participating in a 12-week commercial weight loss program. From pre- to post-treatment, reported usage of weight control behaviors improved and hedonic hunger decreased, and these changes were inversely associated. A decrease in hedonic hunger was associated with better weight loss. An improvement in reported weight control behaviors (e.g., self-regulatory behaviors) was associated with better weight loss, and this association was even stronger among individuals with high baseline hedonic hunger. Findings highlight the importance of specific self-regulatory behaviors within weight loss treatment, including a commercial weight loss program developed for widespread community implementation. Assessment of weight control behavioral skills usage and hedonic hunger may be useful to further identify mediators of weight loss within commercial weight loss programs. Future interventions might specifically target high hedonic hunger and prospectively examine changes in hedonic hunger during other types of weight loss treatment to inform its potential impact on sustained behavior change and weight control. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modelling long-term oil price and extraction with a Hubbert approach: The LOPEX model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rehrl, Tobias; Friedrich, Rainer

2006-01-01

The LOPEX (Long-term Oil Price and EXtraction) model generates long-term scenarios about future world oil supply and corresponding price paths up to the year 2100. In order to determine oil production in non-OPEC countries, the model uses Hubbert curves. Hubbert curves reflect the logistic nature of the discovery process and the associated constraint on temporal availability of oil. Extraction paths and world oil price path are both derived endogenously from OPEC's intertemporally optimal cartel behaviour. Thereby OPEC is faced with both the price-dependent production of the non-OPEC competitive fringe and the price-dependent world oil demand. World oil demand is modelled with a constant price elasticity function and refers to a scenario from ACROPOLIS-POLES. LOPEX results indicate a significant higher oil price from around 2020 onwards compared to the reference scenario, and a stagnating market share of maximal 50% to be optimal for OPEC

Arbitrage Pricing, Capital Asset Pricing, and Agricultural Assets

OpenAIRE

Louise M. Arthur; Colin A. Carter; Fay Abizadeh

1988-01-01

A new asset pricing model, the arbitrage pricing theory, has been developed as an alternative to the capital asset pricing model. The arbitrage pricing theory model is used to analyze the relationship between risk and return for agricultural assets. The major conclusion is that the arbitrage pricing theory results support previous capital asset pricing model findings that the estimated risk associated with agricultural assets is low. This conclusion is more robust for the arbitrage pricing th...

Berlyne revisited: Evidence for the multifaceted nature of hedonic tone in the appreciation of paintings and music

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Manuela Maria Marin

2016-11-01

Full Text Available In his seminal book on aesthetics, Berlyne (1971 posited an inverted-U relationship between complexity and hedonic tone in arts appreciation, however, converging evidence for his theory is still missing. The disregard of the multidimensionality of complexity may explain some of the divergent results. Here, we argue that definitions of hedonic tone are manifold and systematically examined whether the nature of the relationship between complexity and hedonic tone is determined by the specific measure of hedonic tone. In Experiment 1, we studied three picture categories with similar affective and semantic contents: 96 affective environmental scenes, which were also converted into 96 cartoons, and 96 representational paintings. Complexity varied along the dimension of elements. In a between-subjects design, each stimulus was presented for 5 s to 206 female participants. Subjective ratings of hedonic tone (either beauty, pleasantness or liking, arousal, complexity and familiarity were collected in three conditions per stimulus set. Complexity and arousal were positively associated in all conditions, with the strongest association observed for paintings. For environmental scenes and cartoons, there was no significant association between complexity and hedonic tone, and the three measures of hedonic tone were highly correlated (all rs >.85. As predicted, in paintings the measures of hedonic tone were less strongly correlated (all rs >.73, and when controlling for familiarity, the association with complexity was significantly positive for beauty (rs = .26, weakly negative for pleasantness (rs = -.16 and not present for liking. Experiment 2 followed a similar approach and 77 female participants, all non-musicians, rated 92 musical excerpts (15 s in three conditions of hedonic tone (either beauty, pleasantness or liking. Results indicated a strong relationship between complexity and arousal (all rs >.85. When controlling for familiarity effects, the

Berlyne Revisited: Evidence for the Multifaceted Nature of Hedonic Tone in the Appreciation of Paintings and Music.

Science.gov (United States)

Marin, Manuela M; Lampatz, Allegra; Wandl, Michaela; Leder, Helmut

2016-01-01

In his seminal book on esthetics, Berlyne (1971) posited an inverted-U relationship between complexity and hedonic tone in arts appreciation, however, converging evidence for his theory is still missing. The disregard of the multidimensionality of complexity may explain some of the divergent results. Here, we argue that definitions of hedonic tone are manifold and systematically examined whether the nature of the relationship between complexity and hedonic tone is determined by the specific measure of hedonic tone. In Experiment 1, we studied three picture categories with similar affective and semantic contents: 96 affective environmental scenes, which were also converted into 96 cartoons, and 96 representational paintings. Complexity varied along the dimension of elements. In a between-subjects design, each stimulus was presented for 5 s to 206 female participants. Subjective ratings of hedonic tone (either beauty, pleasantness or liking), arousal, complexity and familiarity were collected in three conditions per stimulus set. Complexity and arousal were positively associated in all conditions, with the strongest association observed for paintings. For environmental scenes and cartoons, there was no significant association between complexity and hedonic tone, and the three measures of hedonic tone were highly correlated (all r s > 0.85). As predicted, in paintings the measures of hedonic tone were less strongly correlated (all r s > 0.73), and when controlling for familiarity, the association with complexity was significantly positive for beauty ( r s = 0.26), weakly negative for pleasantness ( r s = -0.16) and not present for liking. Experiment 2 followed a similar approach and 77 female participants, all non-musicians, rated 92 musical excerpts (15 s) in three conditions of hedonic tone (either beauty, pleasantness or liking). Results indicated a strong relationship between complexity and arousal (all r s > 0.85). When controlling for familiarity effects, the

Electricity market pricing, risk hedging and modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Cheng, Xu

In this dissertation, we investigate the pricing, price risk hedging/arbitrage, and simplified system modeling for a centralized LMP-based electricity market. In an LMP-based market model, the full AC power flow model and the DC power flow model are most widely used to represent the transmission system. We investigate the differences of dispatching results, congestion pattern, and LMPs for the two power flow models. An appropriate LMP decomposition scheme to quantify the marginal costs of the congestion and real power losses is critical for the implementation of financial risk hedging markets. However, the traditional LMP decomposition heavily depends on the slack bus selection. In this dissertation we propose a slack-independent scheme to break LMP down into energy, congestion, and marginal loss components by analyzing the actual marginal cost of each bus at the optimal solution point. The physical and economic meanings of the marginal effect at each bus provide accurate price information for both congestion and losses, and thus the slack-dependency of the traditional scheme is eliminated. With electricity priced at the margin instead of the average value, the market operator typically collects more revenue from power sellers than that paid to power buyers. According to the LMP decomposition results, the revenue surplus is then divided into two parts: congestion charge surplus and marginal loss revenue surplus. We apply the LMP decomposition results to the financial tools, such as financial transmission right (FTR) and loss hedging right (LHR), which have been introduced to hedge against price risks associated to congestion and losses, to construct a full price risk hedging portfolio. The two-settlement market structure and the introduction of financial tools inevitably create market manipulation opportunities. We investigate several possible market manipulation behaviors by virtual bidding and propose a market monitor approach to identify and quantify such

Theoretical Model of Pricing Behavior on the Polish Wholesale Fuel Market

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Bejger Sylwester

2016-12-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we constructed a theoretical model of strategic pricing behavior of the players in a Polish wholesale fuel market. This model is consistent with the characteristics of the industry, the wholesale market, and the players. The model is based on the standard methodology of repeated games with a built-in adjustment to a focal price, which resembles the Import Parity Pricing (IPP mechanism. From the equilibrium of the game, we conclude that the focal price policy implies a parallel pricing strategic behavior on the market.

Neurobiology of hedonic tone: the relationship between treatment-resistant depression, attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder, and substance abuse

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Sternat T

2016-08-01

Full Text Available Tia Sternat,1,2 Martin A Katzman1–4 1START Clinic for Mood and Anxiety Disorders, 2Department of Psychology, Adler Graduate Professional School, Toronto, 3Division of Clinical Sciences, The Northern Ontario School of Medicine, 4Department of Psychology, Lakehead University, Thunder Bay, ON, Canada Abstract: Anhedonia, defined as the state of reduced ability to experience feelings of pleasure, is one of the hallmarks of depression. Hedonic tone is the trait underlying one’s characteristic ability to feel pleasure. Low hedonic tone represents a reduced capacity to experience pleasure, thus increasing the likelihood of experiencing anhedonia. Low hedonic tone has been associated with several psychopathologies, including major depressive disorder (MDD, substance use, and attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD. The main neural pathway that modulates emotional affect comprises the limbic–cortical–striatal–pallidal–thalamic circuits. The activity of various components of the limbic–cortical–striatal–pallidal–thalamic pathway is correlated with hedonic tone in healthy individuals and is altered in MDD. Dysfunction of these circuits has also been implicated in the relative ineffectiveness of selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors used to treat anxiety and depression in patients with low hedonic tone. Mood disorders such as MDD, ADHD, and substance abuse share low hedonic tone as well as altered activation of brain regions involved in reward processing and monoamine signaling as their features. Given the common features of these disorders, it is not surprising that they have high levels of comorbidities. The purpose of this article is to review the neurobiology of hedonic tone as it pertains to depression, ADHD, and the potential for substance abuse. We propose that, since low hedonic tone is a shared feature of MDD, ADHD, and substance abuse, evaluation of hedonic tone may become a diagnostic feature used to predict subtypes

Short-term electricity price forecast based on the improved hybrid model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dong Yao; Wang Jianzhou; Jiang He; Wu Jie

2011-01-01

Highlights: → The proposed models can detach high volatility and daily seasonality of electricity price. → The improved hybrid forecast models can make full use of the advantages of individual models. → The proposed models create commendable improvements that are relatively satisfactorily for current research. → The proposed models do not require making complicated decisions about the explicit form. - Abstract: Half-hourly electricity price in power system are volatile, electricity price forecast is significant information which can help market managers and participants involved in electricity market to prepare their corresponding bidding strategies to maximize their benefits and utilities. However, the fluctuation of electricity price depends on the common effect of many factors and there is a very complicated random in its evolution process. Therefore, it is difficult to forecast half-hourly prices with traditional only one model for different behaviors of half-hourly prices. This paper proposes the improved forecasting model that detaches high volatility and daily seasonality for electricity price of New South Wales in Australia based on Empirical Mode Decomposition, Seasonal Adjustment and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average. The prediction errors are analyzed and compared with the ones obtained from the traditional Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model. The comparisons demonstrate that the proposed model can improve the prediction accuracy noticeably.

Short-term electricity price forecast based on the improved hybrid model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dong Yao, E-mail: dongyao20051987@yahoo.cn [School of Mathematics and Statistics, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000 (China); Wang Jianzhou, E-mail: wjz@lzu.edu.cn [School of Mathematics and Statistics, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000 (China); Jiang He; Wu Jie [School of Mathematics and Statistics, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000 (China)

2011-08-15

Highlights: {yields} The proposed models can detach high volatility and daily seasonality of electricity price. {yields} The improved hybrid forecast models can make full use of the advantages of individual models. {yields} The proposed models create commendable improvements that are relatively satisfactorily for current research. {yields} The proposed models do not require making complicated decisions about the explicit form. - Abstract: Half-hourly electricity price in power system are volatile, electricity price forecast is significant information which can help market managers and participants involved in electricity market to prepare their corresponding bidding strategies to maximize their benefits and utilities. However, the fluctuation of electricity price depends on the common effect of many factors and there is a very complicated random in its evolution process. Therefore, it is difficult to forecast half-hourly prices with traditional only one model for different behaviors of half-hourly prices. This paper proposes the improved forecasting model that detaches high volatility and daily seasonality for electricity price of New South Wales in Australia based on Empirical Mode Decomposition, Seasonal Adjustment and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average. The prediction errors are analyzed and compared with the ones obtained from the traditional Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model. The comparisons demonstrate that the proposed model can improve the prediction accuracy noticeably.

Forecasting electricity spot-prices using linear univariate time-series models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cuaresma, Jesus Crespo; Hlouskova, Jaroslava; Kossmeier, Stephan; Obersteiner, Michael

2004-01-01

This paper studies the forecasting abilities of a battery of univariate models on hourly electricity spot prices, using data from the Leipzig Power Exchange. The specifications studied include autoregressive models, autoregressive-moving average models and unobserved component models. The results show that specifications, where each hour of the day is modelled separately present uniformly better forecasting properties than specifications for the whole time-series, and that the inclusion of simple probabilistic processes for the arrival of extreme price events can lead to improvements in the forecasting abilities of univariate models for electricity spot prices. (Author)

Modelling Affective Pain in Mice: Effects of Inflammatory Hypersensitivity on Place Escape/Avoidance Behaviour, Anxiety and Hedonic State

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Refsgaard, Louise Konradsen; Hoffmann-Petersen, Julie; Sahlholt, Maj

2016-01-01

and the dark area of a box while being stimulated with a suprathreshold filament on the untreated or treated paw, respectively. This was followed by a 30-min test with unrestricted movement. Anxiety-like behaviour, locomotor activity, and hedonic state were assessed with the elevated zero maze (EZM), an open...... PEAP and other behavioural responses, namely anxiety-like behaviour, locomotor activity, and hedonic state. New Method A novel paradigm assessing the affective component of pain in mice was developed by modifying the setup known from rat studies: Animals were forced to stay 2x5 min in the light...... field setup, and a saccharin preference test, respectively, and correlated with the PEAP behaviour to examine potentially confounding parameters of the novel paradigm. Results In the PEAP, CFA-treated animals spent more time in the light area. CFA also increased anxiety-like behaviour significantly...

Hedonic changes in food choices following Roux-en-Y gastric bypass

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Thea Toft; Jakobsen, Tine Anette; Nielsen, Mette Søndergaard

2016-01-01

It has been suggested that a shift in food choices leading to a diet with a lower energy density plays an important role in successful weight loss after Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGB) surgery. A decreased hedonic drive to consume highly palatable foods may explain these changes in eating behavio...... to consume highly palatable foods. Still, in order to fully understand the complexity of these changes, we need studies combining sociological and psychological approaches with objective measures of actual food choices examining different measures of hedonic drive....

Optimal Retail Price Model for Partial Consignment to Multiple Retailers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Po-Yu Chen

2017-01-01

Full Text Available This paper investigates the product pricing decision-making problem under a consignment stock policy in a two-level supply chain composed of one supplier and multiple retailers. The effects of the supplier’s wholesale prices and its partial inventory cost absorption of the retail prices of retailers with different market shares are investigated. In the partial product consignment model this paper proposes, the seller and the retailers each absorb part of the inventory costs. This model also provides general solutions for the complete product consignment and the traditional policy that adopts no product consignment. In other words, both the complete consignment and nonconsignment models are extensions of the proposed model (i.e., special cases. Research results indicated that the optimal retail price must be between 1/2 (50% and 2/3 (66.67% times the upper limit of the gross profit. This study also explored the results and influence of parameter variations on optimal retail price in the model.

Decreased hedonic responsiveness following chronic mild stress is not secondary to loss of body weight.

Science.gov (United States)

Willner, P; Moreau, J L; Nielsen, C K; Papp, M; Sluzewska, A

1996-07-01

Chronic exposure to mild unpredictable stress (CMS) has previously been found to decrease hedonic responsiveness, as measured by the consumption of palatable sweet solutions or sensitivity to brain stimulation reward. These effects are reversed by chronic treatment with antidepressant drugs, and the CMS procedure has been proposed as a relatively valid animal model of depression. It has recently been suggested that the behavioural effects of CMS may be secondary to loss of body weight. This article collates data from five laboratories using the CMS procedure. Data are presented from seven studies using five different rat strains, as well as CD1 mice. Three-week exposure to CMS significantly decreased sucrose consumption by Lister hooded, PVG hooded, Wistar, and Wistar WU rats, and by CD1 mice, and sensitivity to brain stimulation reward in Ibm:Ro Ro rats. Weight loss in different experiments varied between 0 and 10%. Hedonic sensitivity relative to body weight (e.g., mg sucrose/g body weight) decreased significantly in all experiments. Animals maintained on a restricted feeding regime lost weight but did not show decreases in sucrose intake. It is concluded that decreased hedonic sensitivity following chronic mild stress cannot be attributed to loss of body weight.

Application of adversarial risk analysis model in pricing strategies with remanufacturing

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Liurui Deng

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Purpose: Purpose: This paper mainly focus on the application of adversarial risk analysis (ARA in pricing strategy with remanufacturing. We hope to obtain more realistic results than classical model. Moreover, we also wish that our research improve the development of ARA in pricing strategy of manufacturing or remanufacturing. Approach: In order to gain more actual research, combining adversarial risk analysis, we explore the pricing strategy with remanufacturing based on Stackelberg model. Especially, we build OEM’s 1-order ARA model and further study on manufacturers and remanufacturers’ pricing strategy. Findings: We find the OEM’s 1-order ARA model for the OEM’s product cost C. Besides, we get according manufacturers and remanufacturers’ pricing strategies. Besides, the pricing strategies based on 1-order ARA model have advantage over than the classical model regardless of OEMs and remanufacturers. Research implications: The research on application of ARA imply that we can get more actual results with this kind of modern risk analysis method and ARA can be extensively in pricing strategies of supply chain. Value: Our research improves the application of ARA in remanufacturing industry. Meanwhile, inspired by this analysis, we can also create different ARA models for different parameters. Furthermore, some results and analysis methods can be applied to other pricing strategies of supply chain.

Job Security as an Endogenous Job Characteristic

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jahn, Elke; Wagner, Thomas

This paper develops a hedonic model of job security (JS). Workers with hetero-geneous JS-preferences pay the hedonic price for JS to employers, who incur labor-hoarding costs from supplying JS. In contrast to the Wage-Bill Argument, equilibrium unemployment is strictly positive, as workers with w...

ARCH Models Efficiency Evaluation in Prediction and Poultry Price Process Formation

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Behzad Fakari Sardehae

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Introduction: Poultry is an important commodity for household consumption. In recent years, price fluctuation for this commodity has caused an uncertain condition for consumers and poultry prices over the past two years has changed a lot. This has caused many changes and uncertainty in a purchase decision. Analysis of changes and volatility modeling can be a great help to predict the poultry prices and great facilities in creating appropriate policies in future. The prices of staples such as poultry consumption basket is highly variable because much of the protein is necessary for daily energy are supplied in this way to households. So when the price of chicken which has been changed over the past two years and has always been in the press and media attention, has been selected in this study. Fluctuations in price of chicken have caused a surge in consumer expectations and contributed in volatility of chicken price. Materials and Methods: In this study ARCH models have been used for daily price of poultry of Iran’s market and this was investigated for2012-13and2013-14.BecauseARCH models can model the impact of heterogeneous variance over time in time series data then the variance of time series, which is limited in time, has no time limit. Many time series are more complex than a linear patterns, thus, non-linear models are of particular importance in Economic Sciences and Econometrics. Accordingly, Engle presented that ARCH model can model the heterogeneous variance components of the error term. That is a disturbing element and modeling can help to examine and explore the relationship between the components can be found disturbing. Basically, these models fit the data to a cluster and periodic oscillations with high volatility and low volatility associated with the period. In this study, we used several different models like ARCH, GARCH, IGARCH, and TGARCH. The distribution of the error term of the model also followt-student distribution

Importância das características na precificação de veículos nacionais Importance of characteristics in pricing national vehicles

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Camilo Brandão de Resende

2009-01-01

Full Text Available O mercado de bens de consumo é constituído por produtos heterogêneos que podem ser vistos como uma união de atributos ou características. Quantificar o valor dessas características pode auxiliar na criação de uma regra de precificação que permita, por exemplo, precificar um produto não existente, auxiliando na sua previsão de demanda. O objetivo deste trabalho é utilizar a teoria do preço hedônico para determinar empiricamente o valor e a importância relativa das características na precificação de veículos nacionais brasileiros. O modelo de previsão foi obtido utilizando-se uma função hedônica linear, cujos coeficientes foram estimados através de mínimos quadrados ordinários. Pode-se concluir que a potência é o fator de maior impacto no preço de um veículo, seguido pelo grau de luxo e marca.The market of consumer goods is consisted of heterogeneous products which can be viewed as a union of attributes or characteristics. Quantifying the value of these characteristics can help in the creation of a pricing rule, allowing, for example, pricing a product which is not available, and helping in the estimates of its demand. The purpose of this work is to use the theory of hedonic price to determine empirically the value of characteristics, as well as their relative importance, in the price of Brazilian vehicles. The model was obtained using data regarding 150 national vehicles and a linear hedonic function, which coefficients were estimated by ordinary least squares. It can be concluded that the engine power is the factor which has the greatest impact on a vehicle price, followed by the luxury level and the brand.

Simulated Models Suggest That Price per Calorie Is the Dominant Price Metric That Low-Income Individuals Use for Food Decision Making.

Science.gov (United States)

Beheshti, Rahmatollah; Igusa, Takeru; Jones-Smith, Jessica

2016-11-01

The price of food has long been considered one of the major factors that affects food choices. However, the price metric (e.g., the price of food per calorie or the price of food per gram) that individuals predominantly use when making food choices is unclear. Understanding which price metric is used is especially important for studying individuals with severe budget constraints because food price then becomes even more important in food choice. We assessed which price metric is used by low-income individuals in deciding what to eat. With the use of data from NHANES and the USDA Food and Nutrient Database for Dietary Studies, we created an agent-based model that simulated an environment representing the US population, wherein individuals were modeled as agents with a specific weight, age, and income. In our model, agents made dietary food choices while meeting their budget limits with the use of 1 of 3 different metrics for decision making: energy cost (price per calorie), unit price (price per gram), and serving price (price per serving). The food consumption patterns generated by our model were compared to 3 independent data sets. The food choice behaviors observed in 2 of the data sets were found to be closest to the simulated dietary patterns generated by the price per calorie metric. The behaviors observed in the third data set were equidistant from the patterns generated by price per calorie and price per serving metrics, whereas results generated by the price per gram metric were further away. Our simulations suggest that dietary food choice based on price per calorie best matches actual consumption patterns and may therefore be the most salient price metric for low-income populations. © 2016 American Society for Nutrition.

Hedonic capacity in the broader autism phenotype: Should social anhedonia be considered a characteristic feature?

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Derek eNovacek

2016-05-01

Full Text Available Impairments in social motivational processes may partially explain the differences in social interaction seen among individuals with autism spectrum disorder (ASD. The social motivation hypothesis would predict an association between reduced hedonic capacity and ASD. However, to date, findings have been mixed regarding hedonic deficits among individuals with ASD; adults report lower levels of both social and physical pleasure whereas adolescents only report experiencing lower social pleasure. Moreover, previous studies examining the association between anhedonia and autistic traits have not used measures of hedonic response or taken temporal aspects of pleasure into account. The present study examined associations between autistic traits and the experience of pleasure using a nonclinical sample of young adults to further clarify the nature of hedonic deficits in the broader autism phenotype (BAP. Results revealed that autistic traits were negatively associated with both the experience of social pleasure as well as general pleasure, although the association was stronger for social pleasure. Regression analyses revealed that reduced social pleasure was a better predictor of autistic traits than general pleasure. Together these findings suggest that reduced social hedonic capacity is associated with autistic traits in the general population and should be included in conceptualizations of the BAP.

How Do We Remember Happy Life Events? A Comparison Between Eudaimonic and Hedonic Autobiographical Memories.

Science.gov (United States)

Sotgiu, Igor

2016-08-17

Although positive events occur frequently in people's lives, autobiographical memory for happy events has received only marginal attention within the psychology literature. This study followed a between-subjects design to examine the similarities and differences between eudaimonic and hedonic happy memories. Two groups of undergraduates provided narratives of personally experienced eudaimonic and hedonic events, respectively. They also completed questionnaires assessing the memory characteristics of recalled events and the centrality of such events for the individual's identity and life story. In addition, the participants' levels of well-being were assessed. The content analysis of narratives revealed that eudaimonic memories mostly referred to transitional life events; by contrast, the most reported hedonic memories referred to close relationship experiences. Eudaimonic and hedonic recollections were further compared on quantitative measures of memory characteristics, statistically controlling for retention interval and event centrality. Results showed that eudaimonic memories involved more intense feelings of pride and were socially shared more frequently than hedonic memories. However, the two memory types were similar with respect to a number of features (e.g., sensory details). It is argued that participants remembering eudaimonic events were more influenced by cultural life scripts. Implications of the findings for the measurement of psychological well-being are also discussed.

Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to complex dynamics in asset pricing models with price contingent contracts

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Brock, W.A.; Hommes, C.H.

2001-01-01

This paper discusses dynamic evolutionary multi-agent systems, as introduced by Brock and Hommes (1997). In particular the heterogeneous agent dynamic asset pricing model of Brock and Hommes (1998) is extended by introducing derivative securities by means of price contingent contracts. Numerical

Bayesian Option Pricing Using Mixed Normal Heteroskedasticity Models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rombouts, Jeroen V.K.; Stentoft, Lars Peter

While stochastic volatility models improve on the option pricing error when compared to the Black-Scholes-Merton model, mispricings remain. This paper uses mixed normal heteroskedasticity models to price options. Our model allows for significant negative skewness and time varying higher order...... moments of the risk neutral distribution. Parameter inference using Gibbs sampling is explained and we detail how to compute risk neutral predictive densities taking into account parameter uncertainty. When forecasting out-of-sample options on the S&P 500 index, substantial improvements are found compared...

A reference-dependent model of the price-quality heuristic

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Gneezy, A.; Gneezy, U.; Lauga, D.O.

2014-01-01

People often use price as a proxy for quality, resulting in a positive correlation between prices and product liking, known as the "price- quality" (P-Q) heuristic. Using data from three experiments conducted at a winery, this article offers a more complex and complete reference-dependent model of

Hedonic and incentive signals for body weight control.

Science.gov (United States)

Egecioglu, Emil; Skibicka, Karolina P; Hansson, Caroline; Alvarez-Crespo, Mayte; Friberg, P Anders; Jerlhag, Elisabet; Engel, Jörgen A; Dickson, Suzanne L

2011-09-01

Here we review the emerging neurobiological understanding of the role of the brain's reward system in the regulation of body weight in health and in disease. Common obesity is characterized by the over-consumption of palatable/rewarding foods, reflecting an imbalance in the relative importance of hedonic versus homeostatic signals. The popular 'incentive salience theory' of food reward recognises not only a hedonic/pleasure component ('liking') but also an incentive motivation component ('wanting' or 'reward-seeking'). Central to the neurobiology of the reward mechanism is the mesoaccumbal dopamine system that confers incentive motivation not only for natural rewards such as food but also by artificial rewards (eg. addictive drugs). Indeed, this mesoaccumbal dopamine system receives and integrates information about the incentive (rewarding) value of foods with information about metabolic status. Problematic over-eating likely reflects a changing balance in the control exerted by hypothalamic versus reward circuits and/or it could reflect an allostatic shift in the hedonic set point for food reward. Certainly, for obesity to prevail, metabolic satiety signals such as leptin and insulin fail to regain control of appetitive brain networks, including those involved in food reward. On the other hand, metabolic control could reflect increased signalling by the stomach-derived orexigenic hormone, ghrelin. We have shown that ghrelin activates the mesoaccumbal dopamine system and that central ghrelin signalling is required for reward from both chemical drugs (eg alcohol) and also from palatable food. Future therapies for problematic over-eating and obesity may include drugs that interfere with incentive motivation, such as ghrelin antagonists.

A method for the assessment of facial hedonic reactions in newborns

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Caroline Ayres

Full Text Available Abstract Objective: This study describes a quantitative and qualitative methodology to assess hedonic responses to sweet stimulus in healthy newborns. Methods: A descriptive, cross-sectional, observational study, with healthy newborns (up to 24 h of life, between 37 and 42 gestational weeks, vaginally born and breastfed previously to all tests. The evaluation of the newborns reactions was performed by hedonic facial expression analysis, characterized by facial expressions with rhythmic serial tongue protrusion after neutral or sweet solution intake. Initially, 1 mL of water solution was provided to the newborn, followed by a 1-minute recording. Afterwards, the same amount of 25% sucrose solution was provided, performing a second recording. The concordance between researchers was analyzed by the Bland-Altman statistical method. Results: A total of 100 newborns (n = 49 males, n = 51 females; mean lifetime = 15 h 12 min ± 6 h 29 min were recorded for neutral and sucrose solution intake, totaling 197 videos (n = 3 missing in the water treatment. These videos were double-blind analyzed and the test revealed a 90% concordance between the two trained researchers, in relation to both solutions. The intraclass correlation coefficient was 0.99 for both solutions, with a significant increase in frequency of hedonic expressions evoked by sucrose solution intake. Conclusions: These results confirm that the proposed method has an efficient power to detect significant differences between neutral and sucrose stimuli. In conclusion, this evaluation method of hedonic facial reactions in newborns reflects the response to a specific taste.

Optimal models of extreme volume-prices are time-dependent

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rocha, Paulo; Boto, João Pedro; Raischel, Frank; Lind, Pedro G

2015-01-01

We present evidence that the best model for empirical volume-price distributions is not always the same and it strongly depends in (i) the region of the volume-price spectrum that one wants to model and (ii) the period in time that is being modelled. To show these two features we analyze stocks of the New York stock market with four different models: Γ, Γ-inverse, log-normal, and Weibull distributions. To evaluate the accuracy of each model we use standard relative deviations as well as the Kullback-Leibler distance and introduce an additional distance particularly suited to evaluate how accurate are the models for the distribution tails (large volume-price). Finally we put our findings in perspective and discuss how they can be extended to other situations in finance engineering

Dynamical Models For Prices With Distributed Delays

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Mircea Gabriela

2015-06-01

Full Text Available In the present paper we study some models for the price dynamics of a single commodity market. The quantities of supplied and demanded are regarded as a function of time. Nonlinearities in both supply and demand functions are considered. The inventory and the level of inventory are taken into consideration. Due to the fact that the consumer behavior affects commodity demand, and the behavior is influenced not only by the instantaneous price, but also by the weighted past prices, the distributed time delay is introduced. The following kernels are taken into consideration: demand price weak kernel and demand price Dirac kernel. Only one positive equilibrium point is found and its stability analysis is presented. When the demand price kernel is weak, under some conditions of the parameters, the equilibrium point is locally asymptotically stable. When the demand price kernel is Dirac, the existence of the local oscillations is investigated. A change in local stability of the equilibrium point, from stable to unstable, implies a Hopf bifurcation. A family of periodic orbits bifurcates from the positive equilibrium point when the time delay passes through a critical value. The last part contains some numerical simulations to illustrate the effectiveness of our results and conclusions.

A Consistent Pricing Model for Index Options and Volatility Derivatives

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kokholm, Thomas

to be priced consistently, while allowing for jumps in volatility and returns. An affine specification using Lévy processes as building blocks leads to analytically tractable pricing formulas for volatility derivatives, such as VIX options, as well as efficient numerical methods for pricing of European options...... on the underlying asset. The model has the convenient feature of decoupling the vanilla skews from spot/volatility correlations and allowing for different conditional correlations in large and small spot/volatility moves. We show that our model can simultaneously fit prices of European options on S&P 500 across...

A Consistent Pricing Model for Index Options and Volatility Derivatives

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Cont, Rama; Kokholm, Thomas

2013-01-01

to be priced consistently, while allowing for jumps in volatility and returns. An affine specification using Lévy processes as building blocks leads to analytically tractable pricing formulas for volatility derivatives, such as VIX options, as well as efficient numerical methods for pricing of European options...... on the underlying asset. The model has the convenient feature of decoupling the vanilla skews from spot/volatility correlations and allowing for different conditional correlations in large and small spot/volatility moves. We show that our model can simultaneously fit prices of European options on S&P 500 across...

Modeling energy price dynamics: GARCH versus stochastic volatility

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chan, Joshua C.C.; Grant, Angelia L.

2016-01-01

We compare a number of GARCH and stochastic volatility (SV) models using nine series of oil, petroleum product and natural gas prices in a formal Bayesian model comparison exercise. The competing models include the standard models of GARCH(1,1) and SV with an AR(1) log-volatility process, as well as more flexible models with jumps, volatility in mean, leverage effects, and t distributed and moving average innovations. We find that: (1) SV models generally compare favorably to their GARCH counterparts; (2) the jump component and t distributed innovations substantially improve the performance of the standard GARCH, but are unimportant for the SV model; (3) the volatility feedback channel seems to be superfluous; (4) the moving average component markedly improves the fit of both GARCH and SV models; and (5) the leverage effect is important for modeling crude oil prices—West Texas Intermediate and Brent—but not for other energy prices. Overall, the SV model with moving average innovations is the best model for all nine series. - Highlights: • We compare a variety of GARCH and SV models for fitting nine series of energy prices. • We find that SV models generally compare favorably to their GARCH counterparts. • The SV model with moving average innovations is the best model for all nine series.

Simple Priorities and Core Stability in Hedonic Games

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Dimitrov, D.A.; Borm, P.E.M.; Hendrickx, R.L.P.; Sung, S.C.

2004-01-01

In this paper we study hedonic games where each player views every other player either as a friend or as an enemy.Two simple priority criteria for comparison of coalitions are suggested, and the corresponding preference restrictions based on appreciation of friends and aversion to enemies are

ELMO model predicts the price of electric power

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Antila, H.

2001-01-01

Electrowatt-Ekono has developed a new model, by which it is possible to make long-term prognoses on the development of electricity prices in the Nordic Countries. The ELMO model can be used as an analysis service of the electricity markets and estimation of the profitability of long-term power distribution contracts with different scenarios. It can also be applied for calculation of technical and economical fundamentals for new power plants, and for estimation of the effects of different taxation models on the emissions of power generation. The model describes the whole power generation system, the power and heat consumption and transmission. The Finnish power generation system is based on the Electrowatt-Ekono's boiler database by combining different data elements. Calculation is based on the assumption that the Nordic power generation system is used optimally, and that the production costs are minimised. In practise the effectively operated electricity markets ensure the optimal use of the production system. The market area to be described consists of Finland and Sweden. The spot prices have long been the same. Norway has been treated as a separate market area. The most potential power generation system, the power consumption and the power transmission system are presumed for the target year during a normal rainfall situation. The basic scenario is calculated on the basis of the preconditional data. The calculation is carried out on hourly basis, which enables the estimation of the price variation of electric power between different times during the day and seasons. The system optimises the power generation on the basis of electricity and heat consumption curves and fuel prices. The result is an hourly limit price for electric power. Estimates are presented as standard form reports. Prices are presented as average annuals, in the seasonal base, and in hourly or daily basis for different seasons

Peripheral Endocannabinoid Responses to Hedonic Eating in Binge-Eating Disorder

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alessio Maria Monteleone

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Reward mechanisms are likely implicated in the pathophysiology of binge-eating behaviour, which is a key symptom of binge-eating disorder (BED. Since endocannabinoids modulate food-related reward, we aimed to investigate the responses of anandamide (AEA and 2-arachidonoylglycerol (2-AG to hedonic eating in patients with BED. Peripheral levels of AEA and 2-AG were measured in 7 obese BED patients before and after eating favorite (hedonic eating and non-favorite (non-hedonic eating foods. We found that plasma levels of AEA progressively decreased after eating the non-favorite food and significantly increased after eating the favorite food, whereas plasma levels of 2-AG did not differ significantly between the two test conditions, although they showed a trend toward significantly different time patterns. The changes in peripheral AEA levels were positively correlated to the subjects’ sensations of the urge to eat and the pleasantness while eating the presented food, while changes in peripheral 2-AG levels were positively correlated to the subjects’ sensation of the pleasantness while eating the presented food and to the amount of food they would eat. These results suggest the occurrence of distinctive responses of endocannabinoids to food-related reward in BED. The relevance of such findings to the pathophysiology of BED remains to be elucidated.

A combined modeling approach for wind power feed-in and electricity spot prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Keles, Dogan; Genoese, Massimo; Möst, Dominik; Ortlieb, Sebastian; Fichtner, Wolf

2013-01-01

Wind power generation and its impacts on electricity prices has strongly increased in the EU. Therefore, appropriate mark-to-market evaluation of new investments in wind power and energy storage plants should consider the fluctuant generation of wind power and uncertain electricity prices, which are affected by wind power feed-in (WPF). To gain the input data for WPF and electricity prices, simulation models, such as econometric models, can serve as a data basis. This paper describes a combined modeling approach for the simulation of WPF series and electricity prices considering the impacts of WPF on prices based on an autoregressive approach. Thereby WPF series are firstly simulated for each hour of the year and integrated in the electricity price model to generate an hourly resolved price series for a year. The model results demonstrate that the WPF model delivers satisfying WPF series and that the extended electricity price model considering WPF leads to a significant improvement of the electricity price simulation compared to a model version without WPF effects. As the simulated series of WPF and electricity prices also contain the correlation between both series, market evaluation of wind power technologies can be accurately done based on these series. - Highlights: • Wind power feed-in can be directly simulated with stochastic processes. • Non-linear relationship between wind power feed-in and electricity prices. • Price reduction effect of wind power feed-in depends on the actual load. • Considering wind power feed-in effects improves the electricity price simulation. • Combined modeling of both parameters delivers a data basis for evaluation tools

Disconfirmed hedonic expectations produce perceptual contrast, not assimilation.

Science.gov (United States)

Zellner, Debra A; Strickhouser, Dinah; Tornow, Carina E

2004-01-01

In studies of hedonic ratings, contrast is the usual result when expectations about test stimuli are produced through the presentation of context stimuli, whereas assimilation is the usual result when expectations about test stimuli are produced through labeling, advertising, or the relaying of information to the subject about the test stimuli. Both procedures produce expectations that are subsequently violated, but the outcomes are different. The present studies demonstrate that both assimilation and contrast can occur even when expectations are produced by verbal labels and the degree of violation of the expectation is held constant. One factor determining whether assimilation or contrast occurs appears to be the certainty of the expectation. Expectations that convey certainty are produced by methods that lead to social influence on subjects' ratings, producing assimilation. When social influence is not a factor and subjects give judgments influenced only by the perceived hedonic value of the stimulus, contrast is the result.

Pricing Models and Payment Schemes for Library Collections.

Science.gov (United States)

Stern, David

2002-01-01

Discusses new pricing and payment options for libraries in light of online products. Topics include alternative cost models rather than traditional subscriptions; use-based pricing; changes in scholarly communication due to information technology; methods to determine appropriate charges for different organizations; consortial plans; funding; and…

Intrauterine Growth Restriction and the Fetal Programming of the Hedonic Response to Sweet Taste in Newborn Infants

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Caroline Ayres

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Intrauterine growth restriction is associated with increased risk for adult metabolic syndrome and cardiovascular disease, which seems to be related to altered food preferences in these individuals later in life. In this study, we sought to understand whether intrauterine growth leads to fetal programming of the hedonic responses to sweet. Sixteen 1-day-old preterm infants received 24% sucrose solution or water and the taste reactivity was filmed and analyzed. Spearman correlation demonstrated a positive correlation between fetal growth and the hedonic response to the sweet solution in the first 15 seconds after the offer (r=0.864, P=0.001, without correlation when the solution given is water (r=0.314, P=0.455. In fact, the more intense the intrauterine growth restriction, the lower the frequency of the hedonic response observed. IUGR is strongly correlated with the hedonic response to a sweet solution in the first day of life in preterm infants. This is the first evidence in humans to demonstrate that the hedonic response to sweet taste is programmed very early during the fetal life by the degree of intrauterine growth. The altered hedonic response at birth and subsequent differential food preference may contribute to the increased risk of obesity and related disorders in adulthood in intrauterine growth-restricted individuals.

Stochastic factor model for electricity spot price-the case of the Nordic market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vehvilaeinen, Iivo; Pyykkoenen, Tuomas

2005-01-01

This paper presents a stochastic factor based approach to mid-term modeling of spot prices in deregulated electricity markets. The fundamentals affecting the spot price are modeled independently and a market equilibrium model combines them to form spot price. Main advantage of the model is the transparency of the generated prices because each underlying factor and the dynamics between factors can be modeled and studied in detail. Paper shows realistic numerical examples on the forerunner Scandinavian electricity market. The model is used to price an exotic electricity derivative

Stochastic factor model for electricity spot price - the case of the Nordic market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vehvilainen, I.; Pyykkoenen, T.

2005-01-01

This paper presents a stochastic factor based approach to mid-term modeling of spot prices in deregulated electricity markets. The fundamentals affecting the spot price are modeled independently and a market equilibrium model combines them to form spot price. Main advantage of the model is the transparency of the generated prices because each underlying factor and the dynamics between factors can be modeled and studied in detail. Paper shows realistic numerical examples on the forerunner Scandinavian electricity market. The model is used to price an exotic electricity derivative. (author)

Hedonic approaches based on spatial econometrics and spatial statistics: application to evaluation of project benefits

Science.gov (United States)

Tsutsumi, Morito; Seya, Hajime

2009-12-01

This study discusses the theoretical foundation of the application of spatial hedonic approaches—the hedonic approach employing spatial econometrics or/and spatial statistics—to benefits evaluation. The study highlights the limitations of the spatial econometrics approach since it uses a spatial weight matrix that is not employed by the spatial statistics approach. Further, the study presents empirical analyses by applying the Spatial Autoregressive Error Model (SAEM), which is based on the spatial econometrics approach, and the Spatial Process Model (SPM), which is based on the spatial statistics approach. SPMs are conducted based on both isotropy and anisotropy and applied to different mesh sizes. The empirical analysis reveals that the estimated benefits are quite different, especially between isotropic and anisotropic SPM and between isotropic SPM and SAEM; the estimated benefits are similar for SAEM and anisotropic SPM. The study demonstrates that the mesh size does not affect the estimated amount of benefits. Finally, the study provides a confidence interval for the estimated benefits and raises an issue with regard to benefit evaluation.

Simulated Models Suggest That Price per Calorie Is the Dominant Price Metric That Low-Income Individuals Use for Food Decision Making123

Science.gov (United States)

2016-01-01

Background: The price of food has long been considered one of the major factors that affects food choices. However, the price metric (e.g., the price of food per calorie or the price of food per gram) that individuals predominantly use when making food choices is unclear. Understanding which price metric is used is especially important for studying individuals with severe budget constraints because food price then becomes even more important in food choice. Objective: We assessed which price metric is used by low-income individuals in deciding what to eat. Methods: With the use of data from NHANES and the USDA Food and Nutrient Database for Dietary Studies, we created an agent-based model that simulated an environment representing the US population, wherein individuals were modeled as agents with a specific weight, age, and income. In our model, agents made dietary food choices while meeting their budget limits with the use of 1 of 3 different metrics for decision making: energy cost (price per calorie), unit price (price per gram), and serving price (price per serving). The food consumption patterns generated by our model were compared to 3 independent data sets. Results: The food choice behaviors observed in 2 of the data sets were found to be closest to the simulated dietary patterns generated by the price per calorie metric. The behaviors observed in the third data set were equidistant from the patterns generated by price per calorie and price per serving metrics, whereas results generated by the price per gram metric were further away. Conclusions: Our simulations suggest that dietary food choice based on price per calorie best matches actual consumption patterns and may therefore be the most salient price metric for low-income populations. PMID:27655757

Modeling and Forecasting Average Temperature for Weather Derivative Pricing

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhiliang Wang

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The main purpose of this paper is to present a feasible model for the daily average temperature on the area of Zhengzhou and apply it to weather derivatives pricing. We start by exploring the background of weather derivatives market and then use the 62 years of daily historical data to apply the mean-reverting Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process to describe the evolution of the temperature. Finally, Monte Carlo simulations are used to price heating degree day (HDD call option for this city, and the slow convergence of the price of the HDD call can be found through taking 100,000 simulations. The methods of the research will provide a frame work for modeling temperature and pricing weather derivatives in other similar places in China.

The capital-asset-pricing model and arbitrage pricing theory: A unification

Science.gov (United States)

Khan, M. Ali; Sun, Yeneng

1997-01-01

We present a model of a financial market in which naive diversification, based simply on portfolio size and obtained as a consequence of the law of large numbers, is distinguished from efficient diversification, based on mean-variance analysis. This distinction yields a valuation formula involving only the essential risk embodied in an asset’s return, where the overall risk can be decomposed into a systematic and an unsystematic part, as in the arbitrage pricing theory; and the systematic component further decomposed into an essential and an inessential part, as in the capital-asset-pricing model. The two theories are thus unified, and their individual asset-pricing formulas shown to be equivalent to the pervasive economic principle of no arbitrage. The factors in the model are endogenously chosen by a procedure analogous to the Karhunen–Loéve expansion of continuous time stochastic processes; it has an optimality property justifying the use of a relatively small number of them to describe the underlying correlational structures. Our idealized limit model is based on a continuum of assets indexed by a hyperfinite Loeb measure space, and it is asymptotically implementable in a setting with a large but finite number of assets. Because the difficulties in the formulation of the law of large numbers with a standard continuum of random variables are well known, the model uncovers some basic phenomena not amenable to classical methods, and whose approximate counterparts are not already, or even readily, apparent in the asymptotic setting. PMID:11038614

Endowment effects for hedonic and utilitarian food products

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Cramer, L.; Antonides, G.

2011-01-01

Part of consumer food habits may be explained by reference effects, status quo bias and loss aversion, but little research has focused on these processes in food choices. This paper is a first attempt at understanding the impact of these effects in consumer decision making with respect to hedonic

Variation in cannabis potency and prices in a newly legal market: evidence from 30 million cannabis sales in Washington state.

Science.gov (United States)

Smart, Rosanna; Caulkins, Jonathan P; Kilmer, Beau; Davenport, Steven; Midgette, Greg

2017-12-01

To (1) assess trends and variation in the market share of product types and potency sold in a legal cannabis retail market and (2) estimate how potency and purchase quantity influence price variation for cannabis flower. Secondary analysis of publicly available data from Washington State's cannabis traceability system spanning 7 July 2014 to 30 September 2016. Descriptive statistics and linear regressions assessed variation and trends in cannabis product variety and potency. Hedonic regressions estimated how purchase quantity and potency influence cannabis flower price variation. Washington State, USA. (1) A total of 44 482 176 million cannabis purchases, including (2) 31 052 123 cannabis flower purchases after trimming price and quantity outliers. Primary outcome measures were (1) monthly expenditures on cannabis, total delta-9-tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) concentration and cannabidiol (CBD) concentration by product type and (2) excise tax-inclusive price per gram of cannabis flower. Key covariates for the hedonic price regressions included quantity purchased, THC and CBD. Traditional cannabis flowers still account for the majority of spending (66.6%), but the market share of extracts for inhalation increased by 145.8% between October 2014 and September 2016, now comprising 21.2% of sales. The average THC-level for cannabis extracts is more than triple that for cannabis flowers (68.7% compared to 20.6%). For flower products, there is a statistically significant relationship between price per gram and both THC [coefficient = 0.012; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.011-0.013] and CBD (coefficient = 0.017; CI = 0.015-0.019). The estimated discount elasticity is -0.06 (CI = -0.07 to -0.05). In the state of Washington, USA, the legal cannabis market is currently dominated by high-THC cannabis flower, and features growing expenditures on extracts. For cannabis flower, both THC and CBD are associated with higher per-gram prices, and there are small but

Testing measurement equivalence of eudaimonic and hedonic entertainment motivations in a cross-cultural comparison

OpenAIRE

Odağ, Özen; Hofer, Matthias; Schneider, Frank M; Knop, Katharina

2016-01-01

Within Hofstede’s framework of individualistic and collectivistic cultures, this contribution examines measurement equivalence of hedonic and eudaimonic entertainment motivations in two different cultures, namely Germany representing a more individualistic culture (N = 180) and Turkey representing a more collectivistic culture (N = 97). By means of a multi-group confirmatory factor analysis, we could secure configural invariance for both hedonic and eudaimonic entertainment motivations across...

A Consistent Pricing Model for Index Options and Volatility Derivatives

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Cont, Rama; Kokholm, Thomas

observed properties of variance swap dynamics and allows for jumps in volatility and returns. An affine specification using L´evy processes as building blocks leads to analytically tractable pricing formulas for options on variance swaps as well as efficient numerical methods for pricing of European......We propose and study a flexible modeling framework for the joint dynamics of an index and a set of forward variance swap rates written on this index, allowing options on forward variance swaps and options on the underlying index to be priced consistently. Our model reproduces various empirically...... options on the underlying asset. The model has the convenient feature of decoupling the vanilla skews from spot/volatility correlations and allowing for different conditional correlations in large and small spot/volatility moves. We show that our model can simultaneously fit prices of European options...

Dynamic room pricing model for hotel revenue management systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Heba Abdel Aziz

2011-11-01

Full Text Available This paper addresses the problem of room pricing in hotels. We propose a hotel revenue management model based on dynamic pricing to provide hotel managers with a flexible and efficient decision support tool for room revenue maximization. The two pillars of the proposed framework are a novel optimization model, and a multi-class scheme similar to the one implemented in airlines. Our hypothesis is that this framework can overcome the limitations associated with the research gaps in pricing literature; and can also contribute significantly in increasing the revenue of hotels. We test this hypothesis on three different approaches, and the results show an increase in revenue compared to the classical model used in literature.

Modeling Long-term Behavior of Stock Market Prices Using Differential Equations

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Xiaoxiang; Zhao, Conan; Mazilu, Irina

2015-03-01

Due to incomplete information available in the market and uncertainties associated with the price determination process, the stock prices fluctuate randomly during a short period of time. In the long run, however, certain economic factors, such as the interest rate, the inflation rate, and the company's revenue growth rate, will cause a gradual shift in the stock price. Thus, in this paper, a differential equation model has been constructed in order to study the effects of these factors on the stock prices. The model obtained accurately describes the general trends in the AAPL and XOM stock price changes over the last ten years.

Accurate market price formation model with both supply-demand and trend-following for global food prices providing policy recommendations.

Science.gov (United States)

Lagi, Marco; Bar-Yam, Yavni; Bertrand, Karla Z; Bar-Yam, Yaneer

2015-11-10

Recent increases in basic food prices are severely affecting vulnerable populations worldwide. Proposed causes such as shortages of grain due to adverse weather, increasing meat consumption in China and India, conversion of corn to ethanol in the United States, and investor speculation on commodity markets lead to widely differing implications for policy. A lack of clarity about which factors are responsible reinforces policy inaction. Here, for the first time to our knowledge, we construct a dynamic model that quantitatively agrees with food prices. The results show that the dominant causes of price increases are investor speculation and ethanol conversion. Models that just treat supply and demand are not consistent with the actual price dynamics. The two sharp peaks in 2007/2008 and 2010/2011 are specifically due to investor speculation, whereas an underlying upward trend is due to increasing demand from ethanol conversion. The model includes investor trend following as well as shifting between commodities, equities, and bonds to take advantage of increased expected returns. Claims that speculators cannot influence grain prices are shown to be invalid by direct analysis of price-setting practices of granaries. Both causes of price increase, speculative investment and ethanol conversion, are promoted by recent regulatory changes-deregulation of the commodity markets, and policies promoting the conversion of corn to ethanol. Rapid action is needed to reduce the impacts of the price increases on global hunger.

Reactive Power Pricing Model Considering the Randomness of Wind Power Output

Science.gov (United States)

Dai, Zhong; Wu, Zhou

2018-01-01

With the increase of wind power capacity integrated into grid, the influence of the randomness of wind power output on the reactive power distribution of grid is gradually highlighted. Meanwhile, the power market reform puts forward higher requirements for reasonable pricing of reactive power service. Based on it, the article combined the optimal power flow model considering wind power randomness with integrated cost allocation method to price reactive power. Meanwhile, considering the advantages and disadvantages of the present cost allocation method and marginal cost pricing, an integrated cost allocation method based on optimal power flow tracing is proposed. The model realized the optimal power flow distribution of reactive power with the minimal integrated cost and wind power integration, under the premise of guaranteeing the balance of reactive power pricing. Finally, through the analysis of multi-scenario calculation examples and the stochastic simulation of wind power outputs, the article compared the results of the model pricing and the marginal cost pricing, which proved that the model is accurate and effective.

Time series ARIMA models for daily price of palm oil

Science.gov (United States)

Ariff, Noratiqah Mohd; Zamhawari, Nor Hashimah; Bakar, Mohd Aftar Abu

2015-02-01

Palm oil is deemed as one of the most important commodity that forms the economic backbone of Malaysia. Modeling and forecasting the daily price of palm oil is of great interest for Malaysia's economic growth. In this study, time series ARIMA models are used to fit the daily price of palm oil. The Akaike Infromation Criterion (AIC), Akaike Infromation Criterion with a correction for finite sample sizes (AICc) and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) are used to compare between different ARIMA models being considered. It is found that ARIMA(1,2,1) model is suitable for daily price of crude palm oil in Malaysia for the year 2010 to 2012.

Option pricing under stochastic volatility: the exponential Ornstein–Uhlenbeck model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Perelló, Josep; Masoliver, Jaume; Sircar, Ronnie

2008-01-01

We study the pricing problem for a European call option when the volatility of the underlying asset is random and follows the exponential Ornstein–Uhlenbeck model. The random diffusion model proposed is a two-dimensional market process that takes a log-Brownian motion to describe price dynamics and an Ornstein–Uhlenbeck subordinated process describing the randomness of the log-volatility. We derive an approximate option price that is valid when (i) the fluctuations of the volatility are larger than its normal level, (ii) the volatility presents a slow driving force, toward its normal level and, finally, (iii) the market price of risk is a linear function of the log-volatility. We study the resulting European call price and its implied volatility for a range of parameters consistent with daily Dow Jones index data

Daily Crude Oil Price Forecasting Using Hybridizing Wavelet and Artificial Neural Network Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ani Shabri

2014-01-01

Full Text Available A new method based on integrating discrete wavelet transform and artificial neural networks (WANN model for daily crude oil price forecasting is proposed. The discrete Mallat wavelet transform is used to decompose the crude price series into one approximation series and some details series (DS. The new series obtained by adding the effective one approximation series and DS component is then used as input into the ANN model to forecast crude oil price. The relative performance of WANN model was compared to regular ANN model for crude oil forecasting at lead times of 1 day for two main crude oil price series, West Texas Intermediate (WTI and Brent crude oil spot prices. In both cases, WANN model was found to provide more accurate crude oil prices forecasts than individual ANN model.

EVT in electricity price modeling : extreme value theory not only on the extreme events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marossy, Z.

2007-01-01

The extreme value theory (EVT) is commonly used in electricity and financial risk modeling. In this study, EVT was used to model the distribution of electricity prices. The model was built on the price formation in electricity auction markets. This paper reviewed the 3 main modeling approaches used to describe the distribution of electricity prices. The first approach is based on a stochastic model of the electricity price time series and uses this stochastic model to generate the given distribution. The second approach involves electricity supply and demand factors that determine the price distribution. The third approach involves agent-based models which use simulation techniques to write down the price distribution. A fourth modeling approach was then proposed to describe the distribution of electricity prices. The new approach determines the distribution of electricity prices directly without knowing anything about the data generating process or market driving forces. Empirical data confirmed that the distribution of electricity prices have a generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. 8 refs., 2 tabs., 5 figs

Option Pricing with Asymmetric Heteroskedastic Normal Mixture Models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rombouts, Jeroen V. K; Stentoft, Lars

2015-01-01

We propose an asymmetric GARCH in mean mixture model and provide a feasible method for option pricing within this general framework by deriving the appropriate risk neutral dynamics. We forecast the out-of-sample prices of a large sample of options on the S&P 500 index from January 2006 to December...

Forecasting oil price trends using wavelets and hidden Markov models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Souza e Silva, Edmundo G. de; Souza e Silva, Edmundo A. de; Legey, Luiz F.L.

2010-01-01

The crude oil price is influenced by a great number of factors, most of which interact in very complex ways. For this reason, forecasting it through a fundamentalist approach is a difficult task. An alternative is to use time series methodologies, with which the price's past behavior is conveniently analyzed, and used to predict future movements. In this paper, we investigate the usefulness of a nonlinear time series model, known as hidden Markov model (HMM), to predict future crude oil price movements. Using an HMM, we develop a forecasting methodology that consists of, basically, three steps. First, we employ wavelet analysis to remove high frequency price movements, which can be assumed as noise. Then, the HMM is used to forecast the probability distribution of the price return accumulated over the next F days. Finally, from this distribution, we infer future price trends. Our results indicate that the proposed methodology might be a useful decision support tool for agents participating in the crude oil market. (author)

Spatial Hedonic Models for Measuring the Impact of Sea-Level Rise on Coastal Real Estate

OpenAIRE

Okmyung Bin; Ben Poulter; Christopher F. Dumas; John C. Whitehead

2009-01-01

This study uses a unique integration of geospatial and hedonic property data to estimate the impact of sea-level rise on coastal real estate in North Carolina. North Carolina’s coastal plain is one of several large terrestrial systems around the world threatened by rising sea-levels. High-resolution topographic LIDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) data are used to provide accurate inundation maps for all properties that will be at risk under six different sea-level rise scenarios. A simulation...

Bounds for perpetual American option prices in a jump diffusion model

OpenAIRE

Ekström, Erik

2006-01-01

We provide bounds for perpetual American option prices in a jump diffusion model in terms of American option prices in the standard Black-Scholes model. We also investigate the dependence of the bounds on different parameters of the model.

Model Calibration in Option Pricing

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andre Loerx

2012-04-01

Full Text Available We consider calibration problems for models of pricing derivatives which occur in mathematical finance. We discuss various approaches such as using stochastic differential equations or partial differential equations for the modeling process. We discuss the development in the past literature and give an outlook into modern approaches of modelling. Furthermore, we address important numerical issues in the valuation of options and likewise the calibration of these models. This leads to interesting problems in optimization, where, e.g., the use of adjoint equations or the choice of the parametrization for the model parameters play an important role.

Some Divergence Properties of Asset Price Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wolfgang Stummer

2001-12-01

Full Text Available Abstract: We consider asset price processes Xt which are weak solutions of one-dimensional stochastic differential equations of the form (equation (2 Such price models can be interpreted as non-lognormally-distributed generalizations of the geometric Brownian motion. We study properties of the Iα-divergence between the law of the solution Xt and the corresponding drift-less measure (the special case α=1 is the relative entropy. This will be applied to some context in statistical information theory as well as to arbitrage theory and contingent claim valuation. For instance, the seminal option pricing theorems of Black-Scholes and Merton appear as a special case.

An Extrapolative Model of House Price Dynamics

OpenAIRE

Edward L. Glaeser; Charles G. Nathanson

2015-01-01

A modest approximation by homebuyers leads house prices to display three features that are present in the data but usually missing from perfectly rational models: momentum at one-year horizons, mean reversion at five-year horizons, and excess longer-term volatility relative to fundamentals. Valuing a house involves forecasting the current and future demand to live in the surrounding area. Buyers forecast using past transaction prices. Approximating buyers do not adjust for the expectations of...

An Analysis of the Effects of Photovoltaic Energy Systems on Residential Selling Prices in California.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cappers, Peter; Wiser, Ryan; Thayer, Mark; Hoen, Ben

2011-04-12

An increasing number of homes with existing photovoltaic (PV) energy systems have sold in the U.S., yet relatively little research exists that estimates the marginal impacts of those PV systems on the sales price. A clearer understanding of these effects might influence the decisions of homeowners, home buyers and PV home builders. This research analyzes a large dataset of California homes that sold from 2000 through mid-2009 with PV installed. Across a large number of hedonic and repeat sales model specifications and robustness tests, the analysis finds strong evidence that homes with PV systems sold for a premium over comparable homes without. The effects range, on average, from approximately $3.9 to $6.4 per installed watt (DC), with most models coalescing near $5.5/watt, which corresponds to a premium of approximately $17,000 for a 3,100 watt system. The research also shows that, as PV systems age, the premium enjoyed at the time of home sale decreases. Additionally, existing homes with PV systems are found to have commanded a larger sales price premium than new homes with similarly sized PV systems. Reasons for this discrepancy are suggested, yet further research is warranted in this area as well as a number of other areas that are highlighted.

Fuzzy Optimization of Option Pricing Model and Its Application in Land Expropriation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aimin Heng

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Option pricing is irreversible, fuzzy, and flexible. The fuzzy measure which is used for real option pricing is a useful supplement to the traditional real option pricing method. Based on the review of the concepts of the mean and variance of trapezoidal fuzzy number and the combination with the Carlsson-Fuller model, the trapezoidal fuzzy variable can be used to represent the current price of land expropriation and the sale price of land on the option day. Fuzzy Black-Scholes option pricing model can be constructed under fuzzy environment and problems also can be solved and discussed through numerical examples.

The impact of brand equity and the hedonic level of products on consumer stock-out reactions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Sloot, LM; Verhoef, PC; Franses, PH

2005-01-01

We investigate the impact of brand equity and the hedonic level of the product on consumer stock-out responses. We also examine whether the hedonic level of the product moderates the effect of brand equity. Using a sample of Dutch consumers divided over eight product groups and eight retail chains,

Neural networks (NN applied to the commercial properties valuation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. M. Núñez Tabales

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Several agents, such as buyers and sellers, or local or tax authorities need to estimate the value of properties. There are different approaches to obtain the market price of a dwelling. Many papers have been produced in the academic literature for such purposes, but, these are, almost always, oriented to estimate hedonic prices of residential properties, such as houses or apartments. Here these methodologies are used in the field of estimate market price of commercial premises, using AI techniques. A case study is developed in Cordova —city in the South of Spain—. Neural Networks are an attractive alternative to the traditional hedonic modelling approaches, as they are better adapted to non-linearities of causal relationships and they also produce smaller valuation errors. It is also possible, from the NN model, to obtain implicit prices associated to the main attributes that can explain the variability of the market price of commercial properties.

Modeling of price and profit in coupled-ring networks

Science.gov (United States)

Tangmongkollert, Kittiwat; Suwanna, Sujin

2016-06-01

We study the behaviors of magnetization, price, and profit profiles in ring networks in the presence of the external magnetic field. The Ising model is used to determine the state of each node, which is mapped to the buy-or-sell state in a financial market, where +1 is identified as the buying state, and -1 as the selling state. Price and profit mechanisms are modeled based on the assumption that price should increase if demand is larger than supply, and it should decrease otherwise. We find that the magnetization can be induced between two rings via coupling links, where the induced magnetization strength depends on the number of the coupling links. Consequently, the price behaves linearly with time, where its rate of change depends on the magnetization. The profit grows like a quadratic polynomial with coefficients dependent on the magnetization. If two rings have opposite direction of net spins, the price flows in the direction of the majority spins, and the network with the minority spins gets a loss in profit.

Equilibrium Price Dispersion in a Matching Model with Divisible Money

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kamiya, K.; Sato, T.

2002-01-01

The main purpose of this paper is to show that, for any given parameter values, an equilibrium with dispersed prices (two-price equilibrium) exists in a simple matching model with divisible money presented by Green and Zhou (1998).We also show that our two-price equilibrium is unique in certain

Price fairness

OpenAIRE

Diller, Hermann

2013-01-01

Purpose – The purpose of this article is to integrate the various strands of fair price research into a concise conceptual model. Design/methodology/approach – The proposed price fairness model is based on a review of the fair pricing literature, incorporating research reported in not only English but also German. Findings – The proposed fair price model depicts seven components of a fair price: distributive fairness, consistent behaviour, personal respect and regard for the partner, fair dea...

Estimating Structural Models of Corporate Bond Prices in Indonesian Corporations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lenny Suardi

2014-08-01

Full Text Available This  paper  applies  the  maximum  likelihood  (ML  approaches  to  implementing  the structural  model  of  corporate  bond,  as  suggested  by  Li  and  Wong  (2008,  in  Indonesian corporations.  Two  structural  models,  extended  Merton  and  Longstaff  &  Schwartz  (LS models,  are  used  in  determining  these  prices,  yields,  yield  spreads  and  probabilities  of default. ML estimation is used to determine the volatility of irm value. Since irm value is unobserved variable, Duan (1994 suggested that the irst step of ML estimation is to derive the likelihood function for equity as the option on the irm value. The second step is to ind parameters such as the drift and volatility of irm value, that maximizing this function. The irm value itself is extracted by equating the pricing formula to the observed equity prices. Equity,  total  liabilities,  bond  prices  data  and  the  irm's  parameters  (irm  value,  volatility of irm value, and default barrier are substituted to extended Merton and LS bond pricing formula in order to valuate the corporate bond.These models are implemented to a sample of 24 bond prices in Indonesian corporation during  period  of  2001-2005,  based  on  criteria  of  Eom,  Helwege  and  Huang  (2004.  The equity  and  bond  prices  data  were  obtained  from  Indonesia  Stock  Exchange  for  irms  that issued equity and provided regular inancial statement within this period. The result shows that both models, in average, underestimate the bond prices and overestimate the yields and yield spread. ";} // -->activate javascript

Hedonism and Culture: Impact on Shopper Behaviour

OpenAIRE

Kaul Subhashini

2006-01-01

Increasingly consumer shopping behaviour is being seen from the holistic perspective of the entire shopping experience. The experiential view of shopping takes a far more holistic approach to the consumption process, right from involvement to post purchase usage, and incorporates the hedonistic perspective into the existing, primarily cognitive- rational information processing view of consumption. Hedonic shopping value refers to the sense of enjoyment and pleasure that the consumer receives ...

Hedonic orientation moderates the association between cognitive control and affect reactivity to daily hassles in adolescent boys.

Science.gov (United States)

Klipker, Kathrin; Wrzus, Cornelia; Rauers, Antje; Riediger, Michaela

2017-04-01

People often seek to regulate their affective reactions when confronted with hassles. Hassle reactivity is lower for people with higher cognitive control, presumably because of better affect regulation. Many adolescents, however, show higher hassle reactivity than children, despite better cognitive control. The present study aims to understand whether motivational differences when seeking to regulate affective experiences moderate the association between cognitive control and hassle reactivity in adolescence. We hypothesized that higher cognitive control is related to lower hassle reactivity only for adolescents with a strong hedonic orientation, that is, for adolescents who seek to maintain or enhance positive or to dampen negative affect. We investigated 149 boys' (age range: 10-20 years) hedonic orientation and affect reactivity toward daily hassles during 2 weeks of experience sampling. Higher cognitive control, assessed with a working memory battery in the laboratory, was associated with stronger hassle reactivity in individuals with low hedonic orientation. The more hedonic-oriented individuals were, the lower was their hassle reactivity, but only in combination with high cognitive control. Our findings illustrate that higher cognitive control is not always related to lower hassle reactivity. Rather, when daily hassles compromise affect balance, hedonic orientation is equally important to understand affect reactivity in adolescent boys. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Food addiction and obesity: unnecessary medicalization of hedonic overeating.

Science.gov (United States)

Finlayson, Graham

2017-08-01

The concept of addiction is loaded with connotations and is often used for its political as much as its medical utility. The scientific case for 'food addiction' as a clinical phenotype currently rests on its association with generic diagnostic criteria for substance-related disorders being applied to everyday foods and eating-related problems. This has fused the concept of obesity with addiction regardless of whether it fits the definition. The hedonic, or reward, system can account for the ingestion of foods and drugs, confirming that they share neural substrates that differentiate liking and wanting. These are normal processes that are recruited for natural homeostatic behaviours and can explain the phenomenon of hedonic overeating as a consequence of human motivation pushed to extremes by an obesogenic environment. Food addiction constitutes a medicalization of common eating behaviours, taking on the properties of a disease. The use of this medical language has implications for the way in which society views overeating and obesity.

Modeling the Dynamic Interrelations between Mobility, Utility, and Land Asking Price

Science.gov (United States)

Hidayat, E.; Rudiarto, I.; Siegert, F.; Vries, W. D.

2018-02-01

Limited and insufficient information about the dynamic interrelation among mobility, utility, and land price is the main reason to conduct this research. Several studies, with several approaches, and several variables have been conducted so far in order to model the land price. However, most of these models appear to generate primarily static land prices. Thus, a research is required to compare, design, and validate different models which calculate and/or compare the inter-relational changes of mobility, utility, and land price. The applied method is a combination of analysis of literature review, expert interview, and statistical analysis. The result is newly improved mathematical model which have been validated and is suitable for the case study location. This improved model consists of 12 appropriate variables. This model can be implemented in the Salatiga city as the case study location in order to arrange better land use planning to mitigate the uncontrolled urban growth.

Water desalination price from recent performances: Modelling, simulation and analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Metaiche, M.; Kettab, A.

2005-01-01

The subject of the present article is the technical simulation of seawater desalination, by a one stage reverse osmosis system, the objectives of which are the recent valuation of cost price through the use of new membrane and permeator performances, the use of new means of simulation and modelling of desalination parameters, and show the main parameters influencing the cost price. We have taken as the simulation example the Seawater Desalting centre of Djannet (Boumerdes, Algeria). The present performances allow water desalting at a price of 0.5 $/m 3 , which is an interesting and promising price, corresponding with the very acceptable water product quality, in the order of 269 ppm. It is important to run the desalting systems by reverse osmosis under high pressure, resulting in further decrease of the desalting cost and the production of good quality water. Aberration in choice of functioning conditions produces high prices and unacceptable quality. However there exists the possibility of decreasing the price by decreasing the requirement on the product quality. The seawater temperature has an effect on the cost price and quality. The installation of big desalting centres, contributes to the decrease in prices. A very important, long and tedious calculation is effected, which is impossible to conduct without programming and informatics tools. The use of the simulation model has been much efficient in the design of desalination centres that can perform at very improved prices. (author)

Modeling the relationship between the oil price and global food prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen, Sheng-Tung; Kuo, Hsiao-I; Chen, Chi-Chung

2010-01-01

The growth of corn-based ethanol production and soybean-based bio-diesel production following the increase in the oil prices have significantly affect the world agricultural grain productions and its prices. The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationships between the crude oil price and the global grain prices for corn, soybean, and wheat. The empirical results show that the change in each grain price is significantly influenced by the changes in the crude oil price and other grain prices during the period extending from the 3rd week in 2005 to the 20th week in 2008 which implies that grain commodities are competing with the derived demand for bio-fuels by using soybean or corn to produce ethanol or bio-diesel during the period of higher crude oil prices in these recent years. The subsidy policies in relation to the bio-fuel industries in some nations engaging in bio-fuel production should be considered to avoid the consequences resulting from high oil prices. (author)

Pricing of medical devices under coverage uncertainty--a modelling approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Girling, Alan J; Lilford, Richard J; Young, Terry P

2012-12-01

Product vendors and manufacturers are increasingly aware that purchasers of health care will fund new clinical treatments only if they are perceived to deliver value-for-money. This influences companies' internal commercial decisions, including the price they set for their products. Other things being equal, there is a price threshold, which is the maximum price at which the device will be funded and which, if its value were known, would play a central role in price determination. This paper examines the problem of pricing a medical device from the vendor's point of view in the presence of uncertainty about what the price threshold will be. A formal solution is obtained by maximising the expected value of the net revenue function, assuming a Bayesian prior distribution for the price threshold. A least admissible price is identified. The model can also be used as a tool for analysing proposed pricing policies when no formal prior specification of uncertainty is available. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Daily House Price Indices: Construction, Modeling, and Longer-Run Predictions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bollerslev, Tim; Patton, Andrew J.; Wang, Wenjing

We construct daily house price indices for ten major U.S. metropolitan areas. Our calculations are based on a comprehensive database of several million residential property transactions and a standard repeat-sales method that closely mimics the methodology of the popular monthly Case-Shiller house...... price indices. Our new daily house price indices exhibit dynamic features similar to those of other daily asset prices, with mild autocorrelation and strong conditional heteroskedasticity of the corresponding daily returns. A relatively simple multivariate time series model for the daily house price...... index returns, explicitly allowing for commonalities across cities and GARCH effects, produces forecasts of monthly house price changes that are superior to various alternative forecast procedures based on lower frequency data....

Macroeconomic factors and oil futures prices. A data-rich model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zagaglia, Paolo

2010-01-01

I study the dynamics of oil futures prices in the NYMEX using a large panel dataset that includes global macroeconomic indicators, financial market indices, quantities and prices of energy products. I extract common factors from the panel data series and estimate a Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregression for the maturity structure of oil futures prices. I find that latent factors generate information that, once combined with that of the yields, improves the forecasting performance for oil prices. Furthermore, I show that a factor correlated to purely financial developments contributes to the model performance, in addition to factors related to energy quantities and prices. (author)

The CB1 Receptor as an Important Mediator of Hedonic Reward Processing

Science.gov (United States)

Friemel, Chris M; Zimmer, Andreas; Schneider, Miriam

2014-01-01

The endocannabinoid (ECB) system has emerged recently as a key mediator for reward processing. It is well known that cannabinoids affect appetitive learning processes and can induce reinforcing and rewarding effects. However, the involvement of the ECB system in hedonic aspects of reward-related behavior is not completely understood. With the present study, we investigated the modulatory role of the ECB system on hedonic perception, measured by the pleasure attenuated startle (PAS) paradigm for a palatable food reward. Here, a conditioned odor is thought to induce a pleasant affective state that attenuates an aversive reflex—the acoustic startle response. Modulatory effects of the CB1 receptor antagonist/inverse agonist SR1411716 and the cannabinoid agonist WIN 55 212-2 on PAS were examined in rats. PAS was also measured in CB1 receptor knockout (KO) and wild-type (WT) mice. Pharmacological inhibition as well as the absence of CB1 receptors was found to reduce PAS, whereas WIN 55 212-2 administration increased PAS. Finally, presentation of a conditioned reward cue was found to induce striatal FosB/ΔFosB expression in WT mice, but not in KO mice, indicating a reduced stimulation of reward-related brain regions in conditioned KO mice by odor presentation. We here show that in addition to our previous studies in rats, PAS may also serve as a valuable and suitable measure to assess hedonic processing in mice. Our data further indicate that the ECB system, and in particular CB1 receptor signaling, appears to be highly important for the mediation of hedonic aspects of reward processing. PMID:24718372

A vector autoregressive model for electricity prices subject to long memory and regime switching

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haldrup, Niels; Nielsen, Frank S.; Nielsen, Morten Oerregaard

2010-01-01

A regime dependent VAR model is suggested that allows long memory (fractional integration) in each of the observed regime states as well as the possibility of fractional cointegration. The model is motivated by the dynamics of electricity prices where the transmission of power is subject to occasional congestion periods. For a system of bilateral prices non-congestion means that electricity prices are identical whereas congestion makes prices depart. Hence, the joint price dynamics implies switching between a univariate price process under non-congestion and a bivariate price process under congestion. At the same time, it is an empirical regularity that electricity prices tend to show a high degree of long memory, and thus that prices may be fractionally cointegrated. Analysis of Nord Pool data shows that even though the prices are identical under non-congestion, the prices are not, in general, fractionally cointegrated in the congestion state. Hence, in most cases price convergence is a property following from regime switching rather than a conventional error correction mechanism. Finally, the suggested model is shown to deliver forecasts that are more precise compared to competing models. (author)

Analyzing the effects of past prices on reference price formation

OpenAIRE

van Oest, R.D.; Paap, R.

2004-01-01

textabstractWe propose a new reference price framework for brand choice. In this framework, we employ a Markov-switching process with an absorbing state to model unobserved price recall of households. Reference prices result from the prices households are able to remember. Our model can be used to learn how many prices observed in the past are used for reference price formation. Furthermore, we learn to what extent households have sufficient price knowledge to form an internal reference price...

A market power model with price caps and compact DC power flow constraints

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zuwei Yu [Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN (United States). School of Industrial Engineering

2003-05-01

This paper presents a spatial gaming model with price caps for deregulated electricity markets. There has been heated debate on price caps that have been enforced in deregulated electricity markets. Opponents argue that price caps may send wrong economic signals while advocates argue that price caps are good for damping market power. This paper does not intend to take a stand in the argument. Given the fact that price caps are enforced in several deregulated regional electricity markets in the US, a logical step is to reflect this reality in gaining modeling. However, current gaining models have not included any price cap formulation. This paper is the first one to address the issue. DC power flow equations are used for representing the spatial nature of an electrical network. An algorithm is proposed to find a generalized Nash equilibrium under the enforcement of price caps based on the Kuhn-Tucker Vector Optimization Theorem. Case studies show the successful application of the model. The conclusion is that market power impact can be reduced under appropriate price caps. (author)

The relation of hedonic hunger and restrained eating to lateralized frontal activation.

Science.gov (United States)

Winter, S R; Feig, E H; Kounios, J; Erickson, B; Berkowitz, S; Lowe, M R

2016-09-01

Asymmetrical alpha activation in the prefrontal cortex (frontal asymmetry) in electroencephalography (EEG) has been related to eating behavior. Prior studies linked dietary restraint with right frontal asymmetry [1] and disinhibition with left frontal asymmetry [2]. The current study simultaneously assessed restrained eating and hedonic hunger (drive for food reward in the absence of hunger) in relation to frontal asymmetry. Resting-state EEG and measures of restrained eating (Revised Restraint Scale; RRS) and hedonic hunger (Power of Food Scale; PFS) were assessed in 61 non-obese adults. Individually, hedonic hunger predicted left asymmetry. However, PFS and RRS were correlated (r=0.48, phunger exhibited left asymmetry irrespective of RRS scores; among those low in PFS, only those high in RRS showed right asymmetry. Results were consistent with literature linking avoidant behaviors (restraint) with right-frontal asymmetry and approach behaviors (binge eating) with left-frontal asymmetry. It appears that a strong drive toward palatable foods predominates at a neural level even when restraint is high. Findings suggest that lateralized frontal activity is an indicator of motivation both to consume and to avoid consuming highly palatable foods. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Effect of Sales Promotion and Store Atmosphere on Hedonic Shopping Motivation and Impulsive Buying Behavior in Hypermart Manado City

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nova Christian Mamuaya

2018-05-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this research is to know and analyze the effect of sales promotion and store atmosphere on hedonic shopping motivation and impulsive buying of Hypermart consumers in Manado City. The method used in this research is explanatory survey method; with 175 consumers who shop at Hypermart in Manado City as sample with convenience sampling technique; primary data with data collecting technique using questionnaire instrument with Likert scale and structural equation modeling analysis technique with Lisrel 8.80 program. The result of this research shows that sales promotion has positive and significant effect on hedonic shopping motivation; store atmosphere has positive and significant effect on hedonic shopping motivation; sales promotion has positive and significant effect on impulsive buying; store atmosphere has positive and significant effect on impulsive buying; and hedonic shopping motivation has positive and significant effect on impulsive buying of Hypermart consumers in Manado City. Impulsive buying will be improved if Hypermart management in Manado City is able to increase hedonic shopping motivation with the most dominant indicator is “shopping for value”, where hedonic shopping motivation will be improved if Hypermart management in Manado City can increase sales promotion with the most dominant indicator is “sample giveaway program” and store atmosphere with the most dominant indicator is “in-store appearance”.   Bahasa Indonesia Abstrak: Tujuan penelitian ini adalah ingin mengetahui dan menganalisis pengaruh promosi penjualan dan atmosfir toko terhadap motivasi belanja hedonik dan pembelian impulsif konsumen Hypermart di Kota Manado. Metode yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah explanatory survey; dengan sampel 175 orang konsumen yang berbelanja di Hypermart Kota Manado dengan teknik convenience sampling; data primer dengan teknik pengumpulan data menggunakan instrumen kuesioner dengan skala Likert dan

Emphasising Personal Investment Effects Weight Loss and Hedonic Thoughts about Food after Obesity Surgery

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Margaret Husted

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Obesity surgery is the most effective treatment method for the severely obese but does not work for everyone. Indications are that weight-loss success may be related to individuals’ sense of investment in surgery, with failure linked to higher automatic hedonic motivations to consume food and greater susceptibility to food in the environment. A pilot study using an independent experimental design recruited bariatric surgery patients (n=91 via a UK obesity-surgery charity website who were randomly allocated to either the intervention or the control condition. The intervention involved raising the salience of the personal investment made in having weight-loss surgery in an attempt to reduce automatic hedonic thoughts about food and aid weight loss. Data was collected initially with subsequent weight loss measured at 3 months of follow-up. Following the intervention, participants reported significantly reduced hedonic thoughts, increased liking for low-fat foods, reduced liking of high-fat food, and higher self-efficacy for achieving sustained weight loss than controls. By 3 months, this was translated into significant differences in mean weight losses of 6.77 kg for the intervention group and 0.91 kg for control participants. To conclude, a quick simple cost-effective intervention encouraging participants to focus on investment helped weight loss and changed hedonic thoughts about food in bariatric patients.

Stimulants for the Control of Hedonic Appetite

OpenAIRE

Poulton, Alison S.; Hibbert, Emily J.; Champion, Bernard L.; Nanan, Ralph K. H.

2016-01-01

The focus of this paper is treatment of obesity in relation to the management of hedonic appetite. Obesity is a complex condition which may be potentiated by excessive reward seeking in combination with executive functioning deficits that impair cognitive control of behaviour. Stimulant medications address both reward deficiency and enhance motivation, as well as suppressing appetite. They have long been recognised to be effective for treating obesity. However, stimulants can be abused for th...

Optimal Pricing and Advertising Policies for New Product Oligopoly Models

OpenAIRE

Gerald L. Thompson; Jinn-Tsair Teng

1984-01-01

In this paper our previous work on monopoly and oligopoly new product models is extended by the addition of pricing as well as advertising control variables. These models contain Bass's demand growth model, and the Vidale-Wolfe and Ozga advertising models, as well as the production learning curve model and an exponential demand function. The problem of characterizing an optimal pricing and advertising policy over time is an important question in the field of marketing as well as in the areas ...

Preliminary analysis on hybrid Box-Jenkins - GARCH modeling in forecasting gold price

Science.gov (United States)

Yaziz, Siti Roslindar; Azizan, Noor Azlinna; Ahmad, Maizah Hura; Zakaria, Roslinazairimah; Agrawal, Manju; Boland, John

2015-02-01

Gold has been regarded as a valuable precious metal and the most popular commodity as a healthy return investment. Hence, the analysis and prediction of gold price become very significant to investors. This study is a preliminary analysis on gold price and its volatility that focuses on the performance of hybrid Box-Jenkins models together with GARCH in analyzing and forecasting gold price. The Box-Cox formula is used as the data transformation method due to its potential best practice in normalizing data, stabilizing variance and reduces heteroscedasticity using 41-year daily gold price data series starting 2nd January 1973. Our study indicates that the proposed hybrid model ARIMA-GARCH with t-innovation can be a new potential approach in forecasting gold price. This finding proves the strength of GARCH in handling volatility in the gold price as well as overcomes the non-linear limitation in the Box-Jenkins modeling.

Rat ultrasonic vocalizations demonstrate that the motivation to contextually reinstate cocaine-seeking behavior does not necessarily involve a hedonic response.

Science.gov (United States)

Barker, David J; Bercovicz, Danielle; Servilio, Lisa C; Simmons, Steven J; Ma, Sisi; Root, David H; Pawlak, Anthony P; West, Mark O

2014-09-01

Human self-reports often indicate that changes in mood are a major contributor to drug relapse. Still, arguments have been made that instances of drug-seeking following abstinence in animal models (i.e. relapse/reinstatement) may be outside of hedonic control. Therefore, the present study utilized ultrasonic vocalizations in the rat in order to evaluate affect during cocaine self-administration and contextual reinstatement of cocaine-seeking in a pre-clinical model of drug relapse (abstinence-reinstatement model). Results show that while subjects effectively reinstated drug-seeking (lever pressing) following 30 days of abstinence, and spontaneously recovered/reinstated drug-seeking following 60 days of abstinence, ultrasonic vocalizations did not increase over baseline levels during either reinstatement session. These results are consistent with previous results from our laboratory and current theories of addiction suggesting that cues that are weakly associated with drug consumption can motivate drug-seeking behavior that is outside of hedonic processing. © 2013 The Authors, Addiction Biology © 2013 Society for the Study of Addiction.

Analysis of transmission elasticity of international prices for sugar prices in Brazil: an application of the Structural Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mario Antonio Margarido

2018-01-01

Full Text Available This study aims to determine and analyze the spatial elasticity (or horizontal of price transmission between international sugar prices and the average price received by the Brazilian exporter of sugar, using the Structural Model. The data used are from January/2004 to November/2015. As a result, variations of 1% in the international sugar price are transmitted to the average price received by Brazilian sugar exporters with a magnitude of 0.3% on average, setting inelastic relationship between the two variables and, consequently, the non-occurrence of the law of one price. So, there are mechanisms in this market that are hindering the full functioning of the arbitration. This situation is not unusual, because the sugar is one of the most commercially protected product and suffer much interference.

Relation between cognitive and hedonic responses to a meal.

Science.gov (United States)

Ciccantelli, B; Pribic, T; Malagelada, C; Accarino, A; Azpiroz, F

2017-05-01

Ingestion of a meal induces cognitive and hedonic sensations and our aim was to determine the relation between both dimensions. In three groups of healthy non-obese men (n=10 per group) three types of meals with equivalent levels of palatability were tested: a liquid meal, a solid-liquid low-calorie meal, and a solid-liquid high-calorie meal. The cognitive and hedonic responses were measured on 10-cm scales before and during the 30-minute postprandial period. The liquid meal induced a relatively strong cognitive response with satiation (4.7±0.7 score increment), fullness (3.3±0.7 score increment), and inhibition of desire of eating a food of choice; in contrast, its impact on sensation of digestive well-being and satisfaction was not significant (0.7±0.7 score increment). The high-calorie solid-liquid meal, with larger volume load and caloric content, induced much lower satiation (2.4±0.8 score increment; P=.041 vs liquid meal) and fullness sensation (1.3±0.6 score increment; P=.031 vs liquid meal), but a markedly higher level of satisfaction (2.7±0.4 score increment; P=.021 vs liquid meal); the low-calorie mixed meal had less prominent effects with significantly lower satisfaction (1.0±0.4 score increment; P=.039 vs high-calorie meal). The cognitive (satiation, fullness) and hedonic responses (satisfaction) to meals with equivalent levels of palatability, that is, equally likable, are dissociable. The characteristics of meals in terms of satiation and rewarding power could be adapted to specific clinical targets, whether nutritional supplementation or restriction. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Forecasting Nord Pool day-ahead prices with an autoregressive model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kristiansen, Tarjei

2012-01-01

This paper presents a model to forecast Nord Pool hourly day-ahead prices. The model is based on but reduced in terms of estimation parameters (from 24 sets to 1) and modified to include Nordic demand and Danish wind power as exogenous variables. We model prices across all hours in the analysis period rather than across each single hour of 24 hours. By applying three model variants on Nord Pool data, we achieve a weekly mean absolute percentage error (WMAE) of around 6–7% and an hourly mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) ranging from 8% to 11%. Out of sample results yields a WMAE and an hourly MAPE of around 5%. The models enable analysts and traders to forecast hourly day-ahead prices accurately. Moreover, the models are relatively straightforward and user-friendly to implement. They can be set up in any trading organization. - Highlights: ► Forecasting Nord Pool day-ahead prices with an autoregressive model. ► The model is based on but with the set of parameters reduced from 24 to 1. ► The model includes Nordic demand and Danish wind power as exogenous variables. ► Hourly mean absolute percentage error ranges from 8% to 11%. ► Out of sample results yields a WMAE and an hourly MAPE of around 5%.

Fast Food, Addiction, and Market Power

OpenAIRE

Richards, Timothy J.; Patterson, Paul M.; Hamilton, Stephen F.

2007-01-01

Many attribute the rise in obesity since the early 1980's to the overconsumption of fast food. A dynamic model of a different-product industry equilibrium shows that a firm with market power will price below marginal cost in a steady-state equilibrium. A spatial hedonic pricing model is used to test whether fast food firms set prices in order to exploit their inherent addictiveness. The results show that firms price products dense in addictive nutrients below marginal cost, but price products...

A Vector Autoregressive Model for Electricity Prices Subject to Long Memory and Regime Switching

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Haldrup, Niels; Nielsen, Frank; Nielsen, Morten Ørregaard

2007-01-01

A regime dependent VAR model is suggested that allows long memory (fractional integration) in each of the regime states as well as the possibility of fractional cointegra- tion. The model is relevant in describing the price dynamics of electricity prices where the transmission of power is subject...... to occasional congestion periods. For a system of bilat- eral prices non-congestion means that electricity prices are identical whereas congestion makes prices depart. Hence, the joint price dynamics implies switching between essen- tially a univariate price process under non-congestion and a bivariate price...

HMM filtering and parameter estimation of an electricity spot price model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Erlwein, Christina; Benth, Fred Espen; Mamon, Rogemar

2010-01-01

In this paper we develop a model for electricity spot price dynamics. The spot price is assumed to follow an exponential Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) process with an added compound Poisson process. In this way, the model allows for mean-reversion and possible jumps. All parameters are modulated by a hidden Markov chain in discrete time. They are able to switch between different economic regimes representing the interaction of various factors. Through the application of reference probability technique, adaptive filters are derived, which in turn, provide optimal estimates for the state of the Markov chain and related quantities of the observation process. The EM algorithm is applied to find optimal estimates of the model parameters in terms of the recursive filters. We implement this self-calibrating model on a deseasonalised series of daily spot electricity prices from the Nordic exchange Nord Pool. On the basis of one-step ahead forecasts, we found that the model is able to capture the empirical characteristics of Nord Pool spot prices. (author)

Testing multi-factor asset pricing models in the Visegrad countries

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Morgese Borys, Magdalena

2011-01-01

Roč. 61, č. 2 (2011), s. 118-139 ISSN 0015-1920 R&D Projects: GA MŠk LC542 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z70850503 Keywords : capital asset pricing model * macroeconomic factor models * asset pricing Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.346, year: 2011 http://journal.fsv.cuni.cz/mag/article/show/id/1208

The long-run forecasting of energy prices using the model of shifting trend

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Radchenko, Stanislav

2005-01-01

Developing models for accurate long-term energy price forecasting is an important problem because these forecasts should be useful in determining both supply and demand of energy. On the supply side, long-term forecasts determine investment decisions of energy-related companies. On the demand side, investments in physical capital and durable goods depend on price forecasts of a particular energy type. Forecasting long-run rend movements in energy prices is very important on the macroeconomic level for several developing countries because energy prices have large impacts on their real output, the balance of payments, fiscal policy, etc. Pindyck (1999) argues that the dynamics of real energy prices is mean-reverting to trend lines with slopes and levels that are shifting unpredictably over time. The hypothesis of shifting long-term trend lines was statistically tested by Benard et al. (2004). The authors find statistically significant instabilities for coal and natural gas prices. I continue the research of energy prices in the framework of continuously shifting levels and slopes of trend lines started by Pindyck (1999). The examined model offers both parsimonious approach and perspective on the developments in energy markets. Using the model of depletable resource production, Pindyck (1999) argued that the forecast of energy prices in the model is based on the long-run total marginal cost. Because the model of a shifting trend is based on the competitive behavior, one may examine deviations of oil producers from the competitive behavior by studying the difference between actual prices and long-term forecasts. To construct the long-run forecasts (10-year-ahead and 15-year-ahead) of energy prices, I modify the univariate shifting trends model of Pindyck (1999). I relax some assumptions on model parameters, the assumption of white noise error term, and propose a new Bayesian approach utilizing a Gibbs sampling algorithm to estimate the model with autocorrelation. To

Port pricing : principles, structure and models

OpenAIRE

Meersman, Hilde; Strandenes, Siri Pettersen; Van de Voorde, Eddy

2014-01-01

Price level and price transparency are input to shippers’ choice of supply chain and transport mode. In this paper, we analyse current port pricing structures in the light of the pricing literature and consider opportunities for improvement. We present a detailed overview of pricing criteria, who sets prices and who ultimately foots the bill for port-of-call charges, cargo-handling fees and congestion charges. Current port pricing practice is based on a rather linear structure and fails to in...

Modeling of geographical pricing: A game analysis of siberian fuel costs

Science.gov (United States)

Sivushina, Anastasiya; Kombu, Anchy; Ryumkin, Valeriy

2017-11-01

In the present study, we propose a novel game-theoretic pricing model describing the interaction between producers and retailers of goods in conditions of poor transport infrastructure and sparse geographical distribution of the points of sale. The proposed model generalizes the Stackelberg leadership model for an arbitrary number of leaders and followers. We show that the model always has a Nash and Stackelberg equilibria. We also provide formulas for the equilibrium prices and volume of sales. As an example we model diesel pricing in south Siberia. Our model found no signs of a cartel. The results of this paper can be used by policymakers to inform market regulations aimed at promoting free competition and avoiding monopolies in production and retail of goods.

Theoretical and Empirical Review of Asset Pricing Models: A Structural Synthesis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Saban Celik

2012-01-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to give a comprehensive theoretical review devoted to asset pricing models by emphasizing static and dynamic versions in the line with their empirical investigations. A considerable amount of financial economics literature devoted to the concept of asset pricing and their implications. The main task of asset pricing model can be seen as the way to evaluate the present value of the pay offs or cash flows discounted for risk and time lags. The difficulty coming from discounting process is that the relevant factors that affect the pay offs vary through the time whereas the theoretical framework is still useful to incorporate the changing factors into an asset pricing models. This paper fills the gap in literature by giving a comprehensive review of the models and evaluating the historical stream of empirical investigations in the form of structural empirical review.

A model for hedging load and price risk in the Texas electricity market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Coulon, Michael; Powell, Warren B.; Sircar, Ronnie

2013-01-01

Energy companies with commitments to meet customers' daily electricity demands face the problem of hedging load and price risk. We propose a joint model for load and price dynamics, which is motivated by the goal of facilitating optimal hedging decisions, while also intuitively capturing the key features of the electricity market. Driven by three stochastic factors including the load process, our power price model allows for the calculation of closed-form pricing formulas for forwards and some options, products often used for hedging purposes. Making use of these results, we illustrate in a simple example the hedging benefit of these instruments, while also evaluating the performance of the model when fitted to the Texas electricity market. - Highlights: • We present a structural model for electricity spot prices in the ERCOT market. • Relationships between power price and factors such as load and gas price are studied. • Seasonal patterns and load-dependent spikes are shown to be well captured. • Closed-form results for prices of forwards, options and spread options are derived. • We demonstrate the effectiveness of hedging power demand with forwards and options

The Relationships Between Instagram Social Media Usage, Hedonic Shopping Motives and Financial Literacy on Impulse Buying

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Asri Triwidisari

2018-03-01

Full Text Available This research aims to determine the effect of using instagram social media and hedonic shopping motives to impulse buying media and to know whether financial literacy is able to moderate the influence of instagram social media use and hedonic shopping motives to impulse buying. This type of research is quantitative research. The population of this research was students of Accounting Economics Education Study Program of Economics Faculty of Universitas Negeri Semarang (UNNES. The research sample was 110 students of class of 2013 which chosen by using purposive sampling technique. The data was analyzed by using descriptive statistic, simple regression analysis, and interaction test (moderation. The result of the research shows that instagram social media usage and hedonic shopping motives have positive and significant effect to students’ impulse buying. The result of regression analysis shows that financial literacy has negative and significant effect on impulse buying. Thus, financial literacy can moderate the influence of instagram social media usage to impulse buying. However, the other regressive result indicates that financial literacy is not able to moderate the influence of hedonic shopping motives on impulse buying.

Premium Pricing of Liability Insurance Using Random Sum Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mujiati Dwi Kartikasari

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Premium pricing is one of important activities in insurance. Nonlife insurance premium is calculated from expected value of historical data claims. The historical data claims are collected so that it forms a sum of independent random number which is called random sum. In premium pricing using random sum, claim frequency distribution and claim severity distribution are combined. The combination of these distributions is called compound distribution. By using liability claim insurance data, we analyze premium pricing using random sum model based on compound distribution

Model documentation: Electricity market module, electricity finance and pricing submodule

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1994-04-07

The purpose of this report is to define the objectives of the model, describe its basic approach, and provide detail on how it works. The EFP is a regulatory accounting model that projects electricity prices. The model first solves for revenue requirements by building up a rate base, calculating a return on rate base, and adding the allowed expenses. Average revenues (prices) are calculated based on assumptions regarding regulator lag and customer cost allocation methods. The model then solves for the internal cash flow and analyzes the need for external financing to meet necessary capital expenditures. Finally, the EFP builds up the financial statements. The EFP is used in conjunction with the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). Inputs to the EFP include the forecast generating capacity expansion plans, operating costs, regulator environment, and financial data. The outputs include forecasts of income statements, balance sheets, revenue requirements, and electricity prices.

Expert opinion versus actual transaction evidence in the valuation of non-market amenities

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Cotteleer, G.; Kooten, van G.C.

2012-01-01

Actual property values are overwhelmingly employed as a dependent variable in hedonic pricing models. Yet, assessed property values are generally more readily available than actual sales values and have, in some studies, been used in lieu of market prices. In this study, we compare estimates of

The impact of electricity price changes on industrial prices and the general price level in Korea

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lim, Seul-Ye; Yoo, Seung-Hoon

2013-01-01

Electricity has played an important role in the economic development of Korea and, thus, has become a critical factor in sustaining the well-being of the Korean people. This study attempts to investigate the impact of electricity price changes on industrial prices and the general price level using input–output (I–O) analysis. To this end, we apply the I–O price model to the 2011 I–O table recently produced by the Bank of Korea, paying particular attention to the electricity sector by considering it as exogenous and then investigating its impacts. The impacts of the electricity price changes on each industrial sector's prices and the general price level are quantitatively derived. For example, the overall impact of a 10% increase in electricity price on the Korean national economy is estimated to be 0.4367%. We also report the results from the model with the electricity sector endogenous and the model with endogenous electricity and labor sectors. This information can be usefully utilized in decision-making regarding price management for electricity. - Highlights: • We investigate the impact of electricity price changes on the Korean economy. • We use the input–output (I–O) analysis specifying the electricity sector as exogenous. • We apply the I–O price model to 2010 I–O table produced by the Bank of Korea. • The impact of a 10% increase in electricity price on the Korean economy is 0.2176%

Distributional modeling and short-term forecasting of electricity prices by Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Serinaldi, Francesco

2011-01-01

In the context of the liberalized and deregulated electricity markets, price forecasting has become increasingly important for energy company's plans and market strategies. Within the class of the time series models that are used to perform price forecasting, the subclasses of methods based on stochastic time series and causal models commonly provide point forecasts, whereas the corresponding uncertainty is quantified by approximate or simulation-based confidence intervals. Aiming to improve the uncertainty assessment, this study introduces the Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS) to model the dynamically varying distribution of prices. The GAMLSS allow fitting a variety of distributions whose parameters change according to covariates via a number of linear and nonlinear relationships. In this way, price periodicities, trends and abrupt changes characterizing both the position parameter (linked to the expected value of prices), and the scale and shape parameters (related to price volatility, skewness, and kurtosis) can be explicitly incorporated in the model setup. Relying on the past behavior of the prices and exogenous variables, the GAMLSS enable the short-term (one-day ahead) forecast of the entire distribution of prices. The approach was tested on two datasets from the widely studied California Power Exchange (CalPX) market, and the less mature Italian Power Exchange (IPEX). CalPX data allow comparing the GAMLSS forecasting performance with published results obtained by different models. The study points out that the GAMLSS framework can be a flexible alternative to several linear and nonlinear stochastic models. - Research Highlights: ► Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS) are used to model electricity prices' time series. ► GAMLSS provide the entire dynamicaly varying distribution function of prices resorting to a suitable set of covariates that drive the instantaneous values of the parameters

Price Determinants of Affordable Apartments in Vietnam: Toward the Public–Private Partnerships for Sustainable Housing Development

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ducksu Seo

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Since the Doi Moi policy of economic reform in 1986, Vietnam has experienced economic development and housing market growth with increasing foreign direct investment. While high-end apartment development has dominated since the emergence of the privatized housing market, more recent focus is on the affordable apartment segment with the remarkable surge of middle-income households in Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC. While most previous studies have analyzed housing price determinants based on locational classification, this study is based on the affordability framework of the housing market in HCMC. It aims to investigate the price determinants of affordable and unaffordable apartment units using the hedonic regression model. The study identified common factors between the two types of apartments, such as vertical shared access and proximity to downtown, as well as unique factors for each, such as more high-rise towers, foreign development, proximity to main roads, and shopping malls only for the affordable segments. The findings have valuable implications, not only for future investors and developers in setting up successful housing development strategies, but also for the public sector in strongly encouraging public–private partnerships for sustainable housing development in Vietnam.

The plunge in German electricity futures prices – Analysis using a parsimonious fundamental model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kallabis, Thomas; Pape, Christian; Weber, Christoph

2016-01-01

The German market has seen a plunge in wholesale electricity prices from 2007 until 2014, with base futures prices dropping by more than 40%. This is frequently attributed to the unexpected high increase in renewable power generation. Using a parsimonious fundamental model, we determine the respective impact of supply and demand shocks on electricity futures prices. The used methodology is based on a piecewise linear approximation of the supply stack and time-varying price-inelastic demand. This parsimonious model is able to replicate electricity futures prices and discover non-linear dependencies in futures price formation. We show that emission prices have a higher impact on power prices than renewable penetration. Changes in renewables, demand and installed capacities turn out to be similarly important for explaining the decrease in operation margins of conventional power plants. We thus argue for the establishment of an independent authority to stabilize emission prices. - Highlights: •We build a parsimonious fundamental model based on a piecewise linear bid stack. •We use the model to investigate impact factors for the plunge in German futures prices. •Largest impact by CO_2 price developments followed by demand and renewable feed-in. •Power plant operating profits strongly affected by demand and renewables. •We argue that stabilizing CO_2 emission prices could provide better market signals.

Effect of Price Determinants on World Cocoa Prices for Over the Last Three Decades: Error Correction Model (ECM Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lya Aklimawati

2013-12-01

Full Text Available High  volatility  cocoa  price  movement  is  consequenced  by  imbalancing between power demand and power supply in commodity market. World economy expectation and market  liberalization would lead to instability on cocoa prices in  the  international  commerce.  Dynamic  prices  moving  erratically  influence the benefit  of market players, particularly  producers. The aim of this research is  (1  to  estimate  the  empirical  cocoa  prices  model  for  responding  market dynamics and (2 analyze short-term and long-term effect of price determinants variables  on cocoa prices.  This research  was  carried out by  analyzing  annualdata from 1980 to 2011, based on secondary data. Error correction mechanism (ECM  approach was  used  to  estimate the  econometric  model  of  cocoa  price.The  estimation  results  indicated  that  cocoa  price  was  significantly  affected  by exchange rate IDR-USD, world gross domestic product,  world inflation, worldcocoa production, world cocoa consumption, world cocoa stock and Robusta prices at varied significance level from 1 - 10%. All of these variables have a long run equilibrium relationship. In long run effect, world gross domestic product, world  cocoa  consumption  and  world  cocoa  stock  were  elastic  (E  >1,  while other  variables  were  inelastic  (E  <1.  Variables  that  affecting  cocoa  pricesin  short  run  equilibrium  were  exchange  rate  IDR-USD,  world  gross  domestic product,  world  inflation,  world  cocoa  consumption  and  world  cocoa  stock. The  analysis  results  showed  that  world  gross  domestic  product,  world  cocoa consumption  and  world  cocoa  stock  were  elastic  (E  >1  to  cocoa  prices  in short-term.  Whereas,  the  response  of  cocoa  prices  was  inelastic  to  change  of exchange rate IDR-USD and world inflation.Key words: Price

Deranged endocannabinoid responses to hedonic eating in underweight and recently weight-restored patients with anorexia nervosa.

Science.gov (United States)

Monteleone, Alessio Maria; Di Marzo, Vincenzo; Aveta, Teresa; Piscitelli, Fabiana; Dalle Grave, Riccardo; Scognamiglio, Pasquale; El Ghoch, Marwan; Calugi, Simona; Monteleone, Palmiero; Maj, Mario

2015-02-01

A dysregulation of reward mechanisms was suggested in the pathophysiology of anorexia nervosa (AN), but the role of the endogenous mediators of reward has been poorly investigated. Endocannabinoids, including anandamide and 2-arachidonoylglycerol, and the endocannabinoid-related compounds oleoylethanolamide and palmitoylethanolamide modulate food-related and unrelated reward. Hedonic eating, which is the consumption of food just for pleasure and not homeostatic need, is a suitable paradigm to explore food-related reward. We investigated responses of endocannabinoids and endocannabinoid-related compounds to hedonic eating in AN. Peripheral concentrations of anandamide, 2-arachidonoylglycerol, oleoylethanolamide, and palmitoylethanolamide were measured in 7 underweight and 7 weight-restored AN patients after eating favorite and nonfavorite foods in the condition of no homeostatic needs, and these measurements were compared with those of previously studied healthy control subjects. 1) In healthy controls, plasma 2-arachidonoylglycerol concentrations decreased after both types of meals but were significantly higher in hedonic eating; in underweight AN patients, 2-arachidonoylglycerol concentrations did not show specific time patterns after eating either favorite or nonfavorite foods, whereas in weight-restored patients, 2-arachidonoylglycerol concentrations showed similar increases with both types of meals. 2) Anandamide plasma concentrations exhibited no differences in their response patterns to hedonic eating in the groups. 3) Compared with 2-arachidonoylglycerol, palmitoylethanolamide concentrations exhibited an opposite response pattern to hedonic eating in healthy controls; this pattern was partially preserved in underweight AN patients but not in weight-restored ones. 4) Like palmitoylethanolamide, oleoylethanolamide plasma concentrations tended to be higher in nonhedonic eating than in hedonic eating in healthy controls; moreover, no difference between healthy

Using Satellite Remote Sensing Data in a Spatially Explicit Price Model

Science.gov (United States)

Brown, Molly E.; Pinzon, Jorge E.; Prince, Stephen D.

2007-01-01

Famine early warning organizations use data from multiple disciplines to assess food insecurity of communities and regions in less-developed parts of the World. In this paper we integrate several indicators that are available to enhance the information for preparation for and responses to food security emergencies. The assessment uses a price model based on the relationship between the suitability of the growing season and market prices for coarse grain. The model is then used to create spatially continuous maps of millet prices. The model is applied to the dry central and northern areas of West Africa, using satellite-derived vegetation indices for the entire region. By coupling the model with vegetation data estimated for one to four months into the future, maps are created of a leading indicator of potential price movements. It is anticipated that these maps can be used to enable early warning of famine and for planning appropriate responses.

An Electricity Price Forecasting Model by Hybrid Structured Deep Neural Networks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ping-Huan Kuo

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Electricity price is a key influencer in the electricity market. Electricity market trades by each participant are based on electricity price. The electricity price adjusted with the change in supply and demand relationship can reflect the real value of electricity in the transaction process. However, for the power generating party, bidding strategy determines the level of profit, and the accurate prediction of electricity price could make it possible to determine a more accurate bidding price. This cannot only reduce transaction risk, but also seize opportunities in the electricity market. In order to effectively estimate electricity price, this paper proposes an electricity price forecasting system based on the combination of 2 deep neural networks, the Convolutional Neural Network (CNN and the Long Short Term Memory (LSTM. In order to compare the overall performance of each algorithm, the Mean Absolute Error (MAE and Root-Mean-Square error (RMSE evaluating measures were applied in the experiments of this paper. Experiment results show that compared with other traditional machine learning methods, the prediction performance of the estimating model proposed in this paper is proven to be the best. By combining the CNN and LSTM models, the feasibility and practicality of electricity price prediction is also confirmed in this paper.

Strategies for OPEC's pricing decisions. [Using model of world energy market

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gately, D; Kyle, J F; Fischer, D

1977-11-01

A model of the world energy market that incorporates price expectations and lagged adjustments of demand and supply is used to examine implications of various price-paths that could be selected by OPEC. After demonstrating the sensitivity of the results to changes in functional specifications and certain parameter values, the authors discuss a variety of rule-of-thumb pricing strategies under which OPEC sets prices in response to available market signals. A strategy that is relatively cautious about further major price increases serves OPEC relatively well in comparison with other stategies, but there exists a real possibility of major, abrupt price increases within the next ten years.

List prices vs. bargain prices: which solution to estimate consumer price indices?

OpenAIRE

Carlo De Gregorio

2010-01-01

Alternative approaches to CPI surveys are here evaluated, in markets where final prices are based on some sort of price listing. Three types of surveys are compared: local surveys (LOC), with small samples and a local price collection; list price surveys (LIS), with huge samples and centralised collection; mixed surveys (MXD), in which LOC and LIS are jointly used. Based on a multiplicative pricing model, some conditions are derived to establish the relative efficiency of these approaches. Th...

An empirical comparison of alternate regime-switching models for electricity spot prices

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Janczura, Joanna [Hugo Steinhaus Center, Institute of Mathematics and Computer Science, Wroclaw University of Technology, 50-370 Wroclaw (Poland); Weron, Rafal [Institute of Organization and Management, Wroclaw University of Technology, 50-370 Wroclaw (Poland)

2010-09-15

One of the most profound features of electricity spot prices are the price spikes. Markov regime-switching (MRS) models seem to be a natural candidate for modeling this spiky behavior. However, in the studies published so far, the goodness-of-fit of the proposed models has not been a major focus. While most of the models were elegant, their fit to empirical data has either been not examined thoroughly or the signs of a bad fit ignored. With this paper we want to fill the gap. We calibrate and test a range of MRS models in an attempt to find parsimonious specifications that not only address the main characteristics of electricity prices but are statistically sound as well. We find that the best structure is that of an independent spike 3-regime model with time-varying transition probabilities, heteroscedastic diffusion-type base regime dynamics and shifted spike regime distributions. Not only does it allow for a seasonal spike intensity throughout the year and consecutive spikes or price drops, which is consistent with market observations, but also exhibits the 'inverse leverage effect' reported in the literature for spot electricity prices. (author)

An empirical comparison of alternate regime-switching models for electricity spot prices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Janczura, Joanna; Weron, Rafal

2010-01-01

One of the most profound features of electricity spot prices are the price spikes. Markov regime-switching (MRS) models seem to be a natural candidate for modeling this spiky behavior. However, in the studies published so far, the goodness-of-fit of the proposed models has not been a major focus. While most of the models were elegant, their fit to empirical data has either been not examined thoroughly or the signs of a bad fit ignored. With this paper we want to fill the gap. We calibrate and test a range of MRS models in an attempt to find parsimonious specifications that not only address the main characteristics of electricity prices but are statistically sound as well. We find that the best structure is that of an independent spike 3-regime model with time-varying transition probabilities, heteroscedastic diffusion-type base regime dynamics and shifted spike regime distributions. Not only does it allow for a seasonal spike intensity throughout the year and consecutive spikes or price drops, which is consistent with market observations, but also exhibits the 'inverse leverage effect' reported in the literature for spot electricity prices. (author)

A behavioral asset pricing model with a time-varying second moment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chiarella, Carl; He Xuezhong; Wang, Duo

2006-01-01

We develop a simple behavioral asset pricing model with fundamentalists and chartists in order to study price behavior in financial markets when chartists estimate both conditional mean and variance by using a weighted averaging process. Through a stability, bifurcation, and normal form analysis, the market impact of the weighting process and time-varying second moment are examined. It is found that the fundamental price becomes stable (unstable) when the activities from both types of traders are balanced (unbalanced). When the fundamental price becomes unstable, the weighting process leads to different price dynamics, depending on whether the chartists act as either trend followers or contrarians. It is also found that a time-varying second moment of the chartists does not change the stability of the fundamental price, but it does influence the stability of the bifurcations. The bifurcation becomes stable (unstable) when the chartists are more (less) concerned about the market risk characterized by the time-varying second moment. Different routes to complicated price dynamics are also observed. The analysis provides an analytical foundation for the statistical analysis of the corresponding stochastic version of this type of behavioral model

Price Tails in the Smith and Farmer's Model

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Šmíd, Martin

2008-01-01

Roč. 15, č. 25 (2008), s. 31-40 ISSN 1212-074X R&D Projects: GA ČR GA402/07/1113; GA ČR(CZ) GA402/06/1417 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : limit order market * continuous double auction * price increments * fat tails * tail exponent Subject RIV: AH - Economics http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2008/E/smid-price tails in the smith and farmer's model.pdf

Intrauterine growth restriction modifies the hedonic response to sweet taste in newborn pups - Role of the accumbal μ-opioid receptors.

Science.gov (United States)

Laureano, D P; Dalle Molle, R; Alves, M B; Luft, C; Desai, M; Ross, M G; Silveira, P P

2016-05-13

Intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR) is associated with increased preference for palatable foods. The hedonic response to sweet taste, modulated by the nucleus accumbens μ-opioid-receptors, may be involved. We investigated hedonic responses and receptor levels in IUGR and Control animals. From pregnancy day 10, Sprague-Dawley dams received either an ad libitum (Control), or a 50% food restricted (FR) diet. At birth, pups were cross-fostered, and nursed by Adlib fed dams. The hedonic response was evaluated at 1 day after birth and at 90 days of life, by giving sucrose solution or water and analyzing the hedonic facial responses (within 60s). Control pups exposed either to water or sucrose resolved their hedonic responses after 16 and 18s, respectively, while FR hedonic responses to sucrose persisted over 20s. FR pups had deceased phospho-μ-opioid-receptor (p=0.009) and reduced phosphor:total mu opioid receptor ratio compared to controls pups (p=0.003). In adults, there was an interaction between group and solution at the end of the evaluation (p=0.044): Control decreased the response after sucrose solution, FR did not change over time. There were no differences in phosphorylation of μ-opioid-receptor in adults. These results demonstrate IUGR newborn rats exhibit alterations in hedonic response accompanied by a decrease in μ-opioid-receptor phosphorylation, though these alterations do not persist at 3 months of age. Opioid system alterations in early life may contribute to the development of preference for highly palatable foods and contribute to rapid weight gain and obesity in IUGR offspring. Copyright © 2016 IBRO. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimating the common trend rate of inflation for consumer prices and consumer prices excluding food and energy prices

OpenAIRE

Michael T. Kiley

2008-01-01

I examine the common trend in inflation for consumer prices and consumer prices excluding prices of food and energy. Both the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) indexes and the consumer price indexes (CPI) are examined. The statistical model employed is a bivariate integrated moving average process; this model extends a univariate model that fits the data on inflation very well. The bivariate model forecasts as well as the univariate models. The results suggest that the relationship betwe...

Modelling the Price of Unleaded Petrol in Australia’s Capital Cities

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Abbas Valadkhani

2010-06-01

Full Text Available This paper examines the long-run and short-run determinants of unleaded petrol price in Australia’s capitalcities using monthly data to find out whether prices respond asymmetrically to external shocks. Based on thecointegration test results and the estimated asymmetric short-run dynamic models, it is found that: (1 in thelong-run petrol prices are mainly determined by Tapis crude oil and Singapore petrol prices; (2 there issome evidence of asymmetric price adjustments in the short-run since petrol price increases have been mostlypassed on to the consumer faster than price decreases in four capital cities. More specifically, this paperprovides convincing evidence in support of asymmetric price adjustments and the “rockets-and-feathershypothesis” in Adelaide, Brisbane, Melbourne and Sydney. One can thus argue that there are a significantdegree of market inefficiency and/or collusion, requiring a closer government price monitoring and scrutiny.

Analyzing the effects of past prices on reference price formation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

R.D. van Oest (Rutger); R. Paap (Richard)

2004-01-01

textabstractWe propose a new reference price framework for brand choice. In this framework, we employ a Markov-switching process with an absorbing state to model unobserved price recall of households. Reference prices result from the prices households are able to remember. Our model can be used to

Forecasting house prices in the 50 states using Dynamic Model Averaging and Dynamic Model Selection

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bork, Lasse; Møller, Stig Vinther

2015-01-01

We examine house price forecastability across the 50 states using Dynamic Model Averaging and Dynamic Model Selection, which allow for model change and parameter shifts. By allowing the entire forecasting model to change over time and across locations, the forecasting accuracy improves substantia......We examine house price forecastability across the 50 states using Dynamic Model Averaging and Dynamic Model Selection, which allow for model change and parameter shifts. By allowing the entire forecasting model to change over time and across locations, the forecasting accuracy improves...

Ensemble Prediction Model with Expert Selection for Electricity Price Forecasting

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bijay Neupane

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Forecasting of electricity prices is important in deregulated electricity markets for all of the stakeholders: energy wholesalers, traders, retailers and consumers. Electricity price forecasting is an inherently difficult problem due to its special characteristic of dynamicity and non-stationarity. In this paper, we present a robust price forecasting mechanism that shows resilience towards the aggregate demand response effect and provides highly accurate forecasted electricity prices to the stakeholders in a dynamic environment. We employ an ensemble prediction model in which a group of different algorithms participates in forecasting 1-h ahead the price for each hour of a day. We propose two different strategies, namely, the Fixed Weight Method (FWM and the Varying Weight Method (VWM, for selecting each hour’s expert algorithm from the set of participating algorithms. In addition, we utilize a carefully engineered set of features selected from a pool of features extracted from the past electricity price data, weather data and calendar data. The proposed ensemble model offers better results than the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA method, the Pattern Sequence-based Forecasting (PSF method and our previous work using Artificial Neural Networks (ANN alone on the datasets for New York, Australian and Spanish electricity markets.

Artificial Neural Networks for Predicting Real Estate Prices || Redes neuronales artificiales para la predicción de precios inmobiliarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Núñez Tabales, Julia M.

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Econometric models, in the estimation of real estate prices, are a useful and realistic approach for buyers and for local and fiscal authorities. From the classical hedonic models to more data driven procedures, based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANN, many papers have appeared in economic literature trying to compare the results attained with both approaches. We insist on the use of ANN, when there is enough statistical information, and will detail some comparisons to hedonic modeling, in a medium size city in the South of Spain, with an extensive set of data spanning over several years, collected before the actual downturn of the market. Exogenous variables include each dwelling's external and internal data (both numerical and qualitative, and data from the building in which it is located and its surroundings. Alternative models are estimated for several time intervals, and enabling the comparison of the effects of the rising prices during the bull market over the last decade. || Los modelos econométricos en la valoración de precios inmobiliarios constituyen una herramienta útil tanto para los compradores como para las autoridades locales y fiscales. Desde los modelos hedónicos clásicos hasta los planteamientos actuales a través de redes neuronales artificiales (RNA, han tenido lugar numerosas aportaciones en la literatura económica que tratan de comparar los resultados de ambos métodos. Insistimos en el empleo de RNA en el caso de disponer de suficiente información estadística. En este trabajo se aplica dicha metodología en una ciudad de tamaño medio situada en el sur de España, utilizando una extensa muestra de datos que comprende varios años precedentes a la crisis actual. Las variables utilizadas -tanto cuantitativas como cualitativas- incluyen datos externos e internos de la vivienda, del edificio en el que está localizada, así como de su entorno. Se construyen varios modelos alternativos para distintos intervalos de

Study protocol: combining experimental methods, econometrics and simulation modelling to determine price elasticities for studying food taxes and subsidies (The Price ExaM Study).

Science.gov (United States)

Waterlander, Wilma E; Blakely, Tony; Nghiem, Nhung; Cleghorn, Christine L; Eyles, Helen; Genc, Murat; Wilson, Nick; Jiang, Yannan; Swinburn, Boyd; Jacobi, Liana; Michie, Jo; Ni Mhurchu, Cliona

2016-07-19

There is a need for accurate and precise food price elasticities (PE, change in consumer demand in response to change in price) to better inform policy on health-related food taxes and subsidies. The Price Experiment and Modelling (Price ExaM) study aims to: I) derive accurate and precise food PE values; II) quantify the impact of price changes on quantity and quality of discrete food group purchases and; III) model the potential health and disease impacts of a range of food taxes and subsidies. To achieve this, we will use a novel method that includes a randomised Virtual Supermarket experiment and econometric methods. Findings will be applied in simulation models to estimate population health impact (quality-adjusted life-years [QALYs]) using a multi-state life-table model. The study will consist of four sequential steps: 1. We generate 5000 price sets with random price variation for all 1412 Virtual Supermarket food and beverage products. Then we add systematic price variation for foods to simulate five taxes and subsidies: a fruit and vegetable subsidy and taxes on sugar, saturated fat, salt, and sugar-sweetened beverages. 2. Using an experimental design, 1000 adult New Zealand shoppers complete five household grocery shops in the Virtual Supermarket where they are randomly assigned to one of the 5000 price sets each time. 3. Output data (i.e., multiple observations of price configurations and purchased amounts) are used as inputs to econometric models (using Bayesian methods) to estimate accurate PE values. 4. A disease simulation model will be run with the new PE values as inputs to estimate QALYs gained and health costs saved for the five policy interventions. The Price ExaM study has the potential to enhance public health and economic disciplines by introducing internationally novel scientific methods to estimate accurate and precise food PE values. These values will be used to model the potential health and disease impacts of various food pricing policy

Study protocol: combining experimental methods, econometrics and simulation modelling to determine price elasticities for studying food taxes and subsidies (The Price ExaM Study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wilma E. Waterlander

2016-07-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background There is a need for accurate and precise food price elasticities (PE, change in consumer demand in response to change in price to better inform policy on health-related food taxes and subsidies. Methods/Design The Price Experiment and Modelling (Price ExaM study aims to: I derive accurate and precise food PE values; II quantify the impact of price changes on quantity and quality of discrete food group purchases and; III model the potential health and disease impacts of a range of food taxes and subsidies. To achieve this, we will use a novel method that includes a randomised Virtual Supermarket experiment and econometric methods. Findings will be applied in simulation models to estimate population health impact (quality-adjusted life-years [QALYs] using a multi-state life-table model. The study will consist of four sequential steps: 1. We generate 5000 price sets with random price variation for all 1412 Virtual Supermarket food and beverage products. Then we add systematic price variation for foods to simulate five taxes and subsidies: a fruit and vegetable subsidy and taxes on sugar, saturated fat, salt, and sugar-sweetened beverages. 2. Using an experimental design, 1000 adult New Zealand shoppers complete five household grocery shops in the Virtual Supermarket where they are randomly assigned to one of the 5000 price sets each time. 3. Output data (i.e., multiple observations of price configurations and purchased amounts are used as inputs to econometric models (using Bayesian methods to estimate accurate PE values. 4. A disease simulation model will be run with the new PE values as inputs to estimate QALYs gained and health costs saved for the five policy interventions. Discussion The Price ExaM study has the potential to enhance public health and economic disciplines by introducing internationally novel scientific methods to estimate accurate and precise food PE values. These values will be used to model the potential

Business Models, transparency and efficient stock price formation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Christian; Vali, Edward; Hvidberg, Rene

has an impact on a company's price formation. In this respect, we analysed whether those companies that publish a lot of information that may support a business model description tend to have a more efficient price formation. Next, we turned to our sample of companies, and via interview-based case...... studies, we managed to draw conclusions on how to construct a comprehensible business model description. The business model explains how the company intends to compete in its market, and thus it gives an account of the characteristics that make the company unique. The business model constitutes...... the platform from which the company prepares and unfolds its strategy. In order to explain this platform and its particular qualities to external interested parties, the description must provide a clear and explicit account of the main determinants of the company's value creation and explain how...

Modeling and forecasting electricity price jumps in the Nord Pool power market

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Knapik, Oskar

extreme prices and forecasting of the price jumps is crucial for risk management and market design. In this paper, we consider the problem of the impact of fundamental price drivers on forecasting of price jumps in NordPool intraday market. We develop categorical time series models which take into account......For risk management traders in the electricity market are mainly interested in the risk of negative (drops) or of positive (spikes) price jumps, i.e. the sellers face the risk of negative price jumps while the buyers face the risk of positive price jumps. Understanding the mechanism that drive...

Multivariate EMD-Based Modeling and Forecasting of Crude Oil Price

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kaijian He

2016-04-01

Full Text Available Recent empirical studies reveal evidence of the co-existence of heterogeneous data characteristics distinguishable by time scale in the movement crude oil prices. In this paper we propose a new multivariate Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD-based model to take advantage of these heterogeneous characteristics of the price movement and model them in the crude oil markets. Empirical studies in benchmark crude oil markets confirm that more diverse heterogeneous data characteristics can be revealed and modeled in the projected time delayed domain. The proposed model demonstrates the superior performance compared to the benchmark models.

Deregulated model and locational marginal pricing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sood, Yog Raj; Padhy, N.P.; Gupta, H.O.

2007-01-01

This paper presents a generalized optimal model that dispatches the pool in combination with privately negotiated bilateral and multilateral contracts while maximizing social benefit has been proposed. This model determines the locational marginal pricing (LMP) based on marginal cost theory. It also determines the size of non-firm transactions as well as pool demand and generations. Both firms as well as non-firm transactions are considered in this model. The proposed model has been applied to IEEE-30 bus test system. In this test system different types of transactions are added for analysis of the proposed model. (author)

Risk Based Milk Pricing Model at Dairy Farmers Level

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

W. Septiani

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The milk price from a cooperative institution to farmer does not fully cover the production cost. Though, dairy farmers encounter various risks and uncertainties in conducting their business. The highest risk in milk supply lies in the activities at the farm. This study was designed to formulate a model for calculating milk price at farmer’s level based on risk. Risks that occur on farms include the risk of cow breeding, sanitation, health care, cattle feed management, milking and milk sales. This research used the location of the farm in West Java region. There were five main stages in the preparation of this model, (1 identification and analysis of influential factors, (2 development of a conceptual model, (3 structural analysis and the amount of production costs, (4 model calculation of production cost with risk factors, and (5 risk based milk pricing model. This research built a relationship between risks on smallholder dairy farms with the production costs to be incurred by the farmers. It was also obtained the formulation of risk adjustment factor calculation for the variable costs of production in dairy cattle farm. The difference in production costs with risk and the total production cost without risk was about 8% to 10%. It could be concluded that the basic price of milk proposed based on the research was around IDR 4,250-IDR 4,350/L for 3 to 4 cows ownership. Increasing farmer income was expected to be obtained by entering the value of this risk in the calculation of production costs. 

Joint Pricing of VIX and SPX Options with Stochastic Volatility and Jump models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kokholm, Thomas; Stisen, Martin

2015-01-01

to existing literature, we derive numerically simpler VIX option and futures pricing formulas in the case of the SVJ model. Moreover, the paper is the first to study the pricing performance of three widely used models to SPX options and VIX derivatives.......With the existence of active markets for volatility derivatives and options on the underlying instrument, the need for models that are able to price these markets consistently has increased. Although pricing formulas for VIX and vanilla options are now available for commonly employed models...... and variance (SVJJ) are jointly calibrated to market quotes on SPX and VIX options together with VIX futures. The full flexibility of having jumps in both returns and volatility added to a stochastic volatility model is essential. Moreover, we find that the SVJJ model with the Feller condition imposed...

A model for energy pricing with stochastic emission costs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Elliott, Robert J.; Lyle, Matthew R.; Miao, Hong

2010-01-01

We use a supply-demand approach to value energy products exposed to emission cost uncertainty. We find closed form solutions for a number of popularly traded energy derivatives such as: forwards, European call options written on spot prices and European Call options written on forward contracts. Our modeling approach is to first construct noisy supply and demand processes and then equate them to find an equilibrium price. This approach is very general while still allowing for sensitivity analysis within a valuation setting. Our assumption is that, in the presence of emission costs, traditional supply growth will slow down causing output prices of energy products to become more costly over time. However, emission costs do not immediately cause output price appreciation, but instead expose individual projects, particularly those with high emission outputs, to much more extreme risks through the cost side of their profit stream. Our results have implications for hedging and pricing for producers operating in areas facing a stochastic emission cost environment. (author)

Olfactory or auditory stimulation and their hedonic valúes differentially modulate visual working memory

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

ANA M DONOSO

2008-12-01

Full Text Available Working memory (WM designates the retention of objects or events in conscious awareness when these are not present in the environment. Many studies have focused on the interference properties of distracter stimuli in working memory, but these studies have mainly examined the influence of the intensity of these stimuli. Little is known about the memory modulation of hedonic content of distracter stimuli as they also may affect WM performance or attentional tasks. In this paper, we have studied the performance of a visual WM task where subjects recollect from five to eight visually presented objects while they are simultaneously exposed to additional - albeit weak- auditory or olfactory distracter stimulus. We found that WM performance decreases as the number of Ítems to remember increases, but this performance was unaltered by any of the distracter stimuli. However, when performance was correlated to the subject's perceived hedonic valúes, distracter stimuli classified as negative exhibit higher error rates than positive, neutral or control stimuli. We demónstrate that some hedonic content of otherwise neutral stimuli can strongly modulate memory processes.

A regime-switching copula approach to modeling day-ahead prices in coupled electricity markets

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pircalabu, Anca; Benth, Fred Espen

2017-01-01

significant evidence of tail dependence in all pairs of interconnected areas we consider. As a first application of the proposed model, we consider the pricing of financial transmission rights, and highlight how the choice of marginal distributions and copula impacts prices. As a second application we......The recent price coupling of many European electricity markets has triggered a fundamental change in the interaction of day-ahead prices, challenging additionally the modeling of the joint behavior of prices in interconnected markets. In this paper we propose a regime-switching AR–GARCH copula...... to model pairs of day-ahead electricity prices in coupled European markets. While capturing key stylized facts empirically substantiated in the literature, this model easily allows us to 1) deviate from the assumption of normal margins and 2) include a more detailed description of the dependence between...

Effect of Price Determinants on World Cocoa Prices for Over the Last Three Decades: Error Correction Model (ECM) Approach

OpenAIRE

Lya Aklimawati; Teguh Wahyudi

2013-01-01

High  volatility  cocoa  price  movement  is  consequenced  by  imbalancing between power demand and power supply in commodity market. World economy expectation and market  liberalization would lead to instability on cocoa prices in  the  international  commerce.  Dynamic  prices  moving  erratically  influence the benefit  of market players, particularly  producers. The aim of this research is  (1)  to  estimate  the  empirical  cocoa  prices  model  for  responding  market dynamics and (2) ...

A regime-switching stochastic volatility model for forecasting electricity prices

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Exterkate, Peter; Knapik, Oskar

In a recent review paper, Weron (2014) pinpoints several crucial challenges outstanding in the area of electricity price forecasting. This research attempts to address all of them by i) showing the importance of considering fundamental price drivers in modeling, ii) developing new techniques for ...... on explanatory variables. Bayesian inference is explored in order to obtain predictive densities. The main focus of the paper is on shorttime density forecasting in Nord Pool intraday market. We show that the proposed model outperforms several benchmark models at this task....

Endogenous Currency of Price Setting in a Dynamic Open Economy Model

OpenAIRE

Michael B. Devereux; Charles Engel

2001-01-01

Many papers in the recent literature in open economy macroeconomics make different assumptions about the currency in which firms set their export prices when nominal prices must be pre-set. But to date, all of these studies take the currency of price setting as exogenous. This paper sets up a simple two-country general equilibrium model in which exporting firms can choose the currency in which they set prices for sales to foreign markets. We make two alternative assumptions about the structur...

A Psycho-Genetic Study of Hedonic Responsiveness in Relation to “Food Addiction”

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Caroline Davis

2014-10-01

Full Text Available While food addiction has no formally-recognized definition, it is typically operationalized according to the diagnostic principles established by the Yale Food Addiction Scale—an inventory based on the symptom criteria for substance dependence in the DSM-IV. Currently, there is little biologically-based research investigating the risk factors for food addiction. What does exist has focused almost exclusively on dopaminergic reward pathways in the brain. While brain opioid signaling has also been strongly implicated in the control of food intake, there is no research examining this neural circuitry in the association with food addiction. The purpose of the study was therefore to test a model predicting that a stronger activation potential of opioid circuitry-as indicated by the functional A118G marker of the mu-opioid receptor gene-would serve as an indirect risk factor for food addiction via a heightened hedonic responsiveness to palatable food. Results confirmed these relationships. In addition, our findings that the food-addiction group had significantly higher levels of hedonic responsiveness to food suggests that this bio-behavioral trait may foster a proneness to overeating, to episodes of binge eating, and ultimately to a compulsive and addictive pattern of food intake.

The Relationships Between Instagram Social Media Usage, Hedonic Shopping Motives and Financial Literacy on Impulse Buying

OpenAIRE

Asri Triwidisari; Ahmad Nurkhin; Muhsin Muhsin

2018-01-01

This research aims to determine the effect of using instagram social media and hedonic shopping motives to impulse buying media and to know whether financial literacy is able to moderate the influence of instagram social media use and hedonic shopping motives to impulse buying. This type of research is quantitative research. The population of this research was students of Accounting Economics Education Study Program of Economics Faculty of Universitas Negeri Semarang (UNNES). The research sam...

ERP evidence for rapid hedonic evaluation of logos.

Science.gov (United States)

Handy, Todd C; Smilek, Daniel; Geiger, Lena; Liu, Cindy; Schooler, Jonathan W

2010-01-01

We know that human neurocognitive systems rapidly and implicitly evaluate emotionally charged stimuli. But what about more everyday, frequently encountered kinds of objects, such as computer desktop icons and business logos? Do we rapidly and implicitly evaluate these more prosaic visual images, attitude objects that might only engender a mild sense of liking or disliking, if at all? To address this question, we asked participants to view a set of unfamiliar commercial logos in the context of a target identification task as brain electrical responses to these objects were recorded via event-related potentials (ERPs). Following this task, participants individually identified those logos that were most liked or disliked, allowing us to then compare how ERP responses to logos varied as a function of hedonic evaluation-a procedure decoupling evaluative responses from any normative classification of the logos themselves. In Experiment 1, we found that visuocortical processing manifest a specific bias for disliked logos that emerged within the first 200 msec of stimulus onset. In Experiment 2, we replicated this effect while dissociating normative- and novelty-related influences. Taken together, our results provide direct electrophysiological evidence suggesting that we rapidly and implicitly evaluate commercial branding images at a hedonic level.

Charge Pricing Optimization Model for Private Charging Piles in Beijing

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xingping Zhang

2017-11-01

Full Text Available This paper develops a charge pricing model for private charging piles (PCPs by considering the environmental and economic effects of private electric vehicle (PEV charging energy sources and the impact of PCP charging load on the total load. This model simulates users’ responses to different combinations of peak-valley prices based on the charging power of PCPs and user charging transfer rate. According to the regional power structure, it calculates the real-time coal consumption, carbon dioxide emissions reduction, and power generation costs of PEVs on the power generation side. The empirical results demonstrate that the proposed peak-valley time-of-use charging price can not only minimize the peak-valley difference of the total load but also improve the environmental effects of PEVs and the economic income of the power system. The sensitivity analysis shows that the load-shifting effect of PCPs will be more obvious when magnifying the number of PEVs by using the proposed charging price. The case study indicates that the proposed peak, average, and valley price in Beijing should be 1.8, 1, and 0.4 yuan/kWh, which can promote the large-scale adoption of PEVs.

Relations of hedonic hunger and behavioral change to weight loss among adults in a behavioral weight loss program utilizing meal-replacement products.

Science.gov (United States)

Theim, Kelly R; Brown, Joshua D; Juarascio, Adrienne S; Malcolm, Robert R; O'Neil, Patrick M

2013-11-01

Greater self-regulatory behavior usage is associated with greater weight loss within behavioral weight loss treatments. Hedonic hunger (i.e., susceptibility to environmental food cues) may impede successful behavior change and weight loss. Adult men and women (N = 111, body mass index M ± SD = 35.89 ± 6.97 kg/m(2)) were assessed before and after a 15-week lifestyle change weight loss program with a partial meal-replacement diet. From pre- to post-treatment, reported weight control behavior usage improved and hedonic hunger decreased, and these changes were inversely related. Individuals with higher hedonic hunger scores at baseline showed the greatest weight loss. Similarly, participants with lower baseline use of weight control behaviors lost more weight, and increased weight control behavior usage was associated with greater weight loss-particularly among individuals with low baseline hedonic hunger. Further study is warranted regarding the significance of hedonic hunger in weight loss treatments.

Pricing Options and Equity-Indexed Annuities in a Regime-switching Model by Trinomial Tree Method

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Fei Lung Yuen

2011-12-01

Full Text Available In this paper we summarize the main idea and results of Yuen and Yang (2009, 2010a, 2010b and provide some results on pricing of Parisian options under the Markov regime-switching model (MRSM. The MRSM allows the parameters of the market model depending on a Markovian process, and the model can reflect the information of the market environment which cannot be modeled solely by linear Gaussian process. However, when the parameters of the stock price model are not constant but governed by a Markovian process, the pricing of the options becomes complex. We present a fast and simple trinomial tree model to price options in MRSM. In recent years, the pricing of modern insurance products, such as Equity-Indexed annuity (EIA and variable annuities (VAs, has become a popular topic. We show here that our trinomial tree model can been used to price EIA with strong path dependent exotic options in the regime switching model.

Option Price Decomposition in Spot-Dependent Volatility Models and Some Applications

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Raúl Merino

2017-01-01

Full Text Available We obtain a Hull and White type option price decomposition for a general local volatility model. We apply the obtained formula to CEV model. As an application we give an approximated closed formula for the call option price under a CEV model and an approximated short term implied volatility surface. These approximated formulas are used to estimate model parameters. Numerical comparison is performed for our new method with exact and approximated formulas existing in the literature.

Parabolic Free Boundary Price Formation Models Under Market Size Fluctuations

KAUST Repository

Markowich, Peter A.

2016-10-04

In this paper we propose an extension of the Lasry-Lions price formation model which includes uctuations of the numbers of buyers and vendors. We analyze the model in the case of deterministic and stochastic market size uctuations and present results on the long time asymptotic behavior and numerical evidence and conjectures on periodic, almost periodic, and stochastic uctuations. The numerical simulations extend the theoretical statements and give further insights into price formation dynamics.

Electricity prices forecasting by automatic dynamic harmonic regression models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pedregal, Diego J.; Trapero, Juan R.

2007-01-01

The changes experienced by electricity markets in recent years have created the necessity for more accurate forecast tools of electricity prices, both for producers and consumers. Many methodologies have been applied to this aim, but in the view of the authors, state space models are not yet fully exploited. The present paper proposes a univariate dynamic harmonic regression model set up in a state space framework for forecasting prices in these markets. The advantages of the approach are threefold. Firstly, a fast automatic identification and estimation procedure is proposed based on the frequency domain. Secondly, the recursive algorithms applied offer adaptive predictions that compare favourably with respect to other techniques. Finally, since the method is based on unobserved components models, explicit information about trend, seasonal and irregular behaviours of the series can be extracted. This information is of great value to the electricity companies' managers in order to improve their strategies, i.e. it provides management innovations. The good forecast performance and the rapid adaptability of the model to changes in the data are illustrated with actual prices taken from the PJM interconnection in the US and for the Spanish market for the year 2002. (author)

How Does Pricing of Day-ahead Electricity Market Affect Put Option Pricing?

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H. Raouf Sheybani

2016-09-01

Full Text Available In this paper, impacts of day-ahead market pricing on behavior of producers and consumers in option and day-ahead markets and on option pricing are studied. To this end, two comprehensive equilibrium models for joint put option and day-ahead markets under pay-as-bid and uniform pricing in day-ahead market are presented, respectively. Interaction between put option and day-ahead markets, uncertainty in fuel price, day-ahead market pricing, and elasticity of consumers to strike price, premium price, and day-ahead price are taken into account in these models. By applying the presented models to a test system impact of day-ahead market pricing on equilibrium of joint put option and day-ahead markets are studied.

Modelling weather effects for impact analysis of residential time-of-use electricity pricing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Miller, Reid; Golab, Lukasz; Rosenberg, Catherine

2017-01-01

Analyzing the impact of pricing policies such as time-of-use (TOU) is challenging in the presence of confounding factors such as weather. Motivated by a lack of consensus and model selection details in prior work, we present a methodology for modelling the effect of weather on residential electricity demand. The best model is selected according to explanatory power, out-of-sample prediction accuracy, goodness of fit and interpretability. We then evaluate the effect of mandatory TOU pricing in a local distribution company in southwestern Ontario, Canada. We use a smart meter dataset of over 20,000 households which is particularly suited to our analysis: it contains data from the summer before and after the implementation of TOU pricing in November 2011, and all customers transitioned from tiered rates to TOU rates at the same time. We find that during the summer rate season, TOU pricing results in electricity conservation across all price periods. The average demand change during on-peak and mid-peak periods is −2.6% and −2.4% respectively. Changes during off-peak periods are not statistically significant. These TOU pricing effects are less pronounced compared to previous studies, underscoring the need for clear, reproducible impact analyses which include full details about the model selection process. - Highlights: • We study models for the effect of weather on residential electricity demand. • We evaluate the effect of mandatory TOU pricing in a local distribution company in Ontario, Canada. • We find the effect of TOU pricing to be less pronounced compared to previous studies.

Pricing Asian Interest Rate Options with a Three-Factor HJM Model

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Claudio Henrique Barbedo

2010-04-01

Full Text Available Pricing interest rate derivatives is a challenging task that has attracted the attention of many researchers in recent decades. Portfolio and risk managers, policymakers, traders and more generally all market participants are looking for valuable information from derivative instruments. We use a standard procedure to implement the HJM model and to price IDI options. We intend to assess the importance of the principal components of pricing and interest rate hedging derivatives in Brazil, one of the major emerging markets. Our results indicate that the HJM model consistently underprices IDI options traded in the over-the-counter market while it overprices long-term options traded in the exchange studied. We also find a direct relationship between time to maturity and pricing error and a negative relation with moneyness.

Output Price Risk, Material Input Price Risk, and Price Margins: Evidence from the US Catfish Industry.

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